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000
FXUS61 KLWX 291824 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
124 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WINDY AND COLD
CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA SATURDAY...BUT LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED A TIER OF
COUNTIES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...INCLUDING MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN WASHINGTON DC SUBURBS AND MUCH OF THE BALTIMORE METRO
AREA. THE ADZY GOES INTO EFFECT AT 3PM UNTIL PM FOR AREAS E OF THE
BLUE RIDGE MTNS. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS QUICKLY ARRIVING OVER THE
APLCNS FROM THE WEST...PRECIP OUT AHEAD WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN INTO
THE COLD/DRY AIR AND POTENTIALLY FREEZING ON SFCS WHERE TEMPS
REMAIN AOB FREEZING.

FROM PREV DISC...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC WILL ALLOW TEMPS AND DEWPTS TO RISE
TODAY. SNOW PACK ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC WILL SLOW TEMPS FROM
RISING AS FAST AS CENTRAL VA AND SOUTHERN MD. SFC TEMPS WILL BE A
CONCERN TODAY AS THE GROUND IS FROZEN IN MANY PLACES. CLOUD COVER
MOVING OVERHEAD WILL ALSO SLOW TEMPS FROM RISING TODAY AS WELL.
THAT BEING SAID...TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S NEAR THE MD/PA
BORDER TO THE LOW 40S FROM DCA-CHO-NHK. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
HELP SCOUR OUT VALLEYS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS WELL AND SHD-
WOO-W99 SHOULD RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S. A CAVEAT IS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ON THE BLUE RIDGE AND WESTWARD. ZR IS POSSIBLE AS TEMPS
MAY STAY BELOW FREEZING. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.

A WINTER WX ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE NRN OUTLOOK AREA. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED TODAY. DCA IS ALREADY AT 31 DEGREES BUT SURROUNDING
SUBURBS ARE IN THE 20S. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PTYPE NEAR
THE I-95 CORRIDOR DURING THE EVENING RUSH HOUR. AT THIS TIME...TEMPS
ARE FCST TO GO ABOVE FREEZING EAST OF THE WINTER WX ADVISORY. AS
GUIDANCE COMES IN THIS MORNING DECISIONS WILL BE MADE IF WE NEED TO
EXTEND THE ADVISORY FURTHER EAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE AWAY FROM MOST AREAS THIS EVENING AND THE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OVERNIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIDGES.
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE MIDWEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE QUITE STRONG...RESULTING IN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AND A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN COLD CONDITIONS. IN FACT...TEMPS MAY
HOLD STEADY OR EVEN FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS
TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S IN SOUTHERN MARYLAND. MORE UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL NOON...BUT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS ANOTHER POTENT UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS
THROUGH THE AREA. MOST AREAS WILL NOT SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW...BUT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO COMBINE WITH STRONG COLD
ADVECTION FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS. THIS COULD LEAVE A QUICK COATING IN SPOTS AND WITH SUDDEN
CHANGES IN VISIBILITY THAT COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
TRAVEL...ALTHOUGH IT WOULD BE LOCALIZED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND...EASTERN
WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA.

COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
AND EAST. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ALLEGHENY FRONT FRI
EVENING EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THE NW FLOW INJECTS MUCH DRIER AIR.
MAIN CONCERN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS...ALMOST 10-15 DEGREES BELOW. COMBINING WITH NW WINDS WITH
GUSTS 20-30 KTS...AND IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS 30-35 KTS...WIND CHILLS
FORECASTED TO DROP TO AROUND -10 DEGREES CELSIUS POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS...NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE...AND
POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY POTENTIAL IN THE HWO...MAINLY FOR
THE FAR WESTERN AREAS. USED A BLEND OF ADJMETBC/MOSBC WHICH HAS BEEN
TRENDING WELL FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CENTER OF THE HIGH SLIPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE SE US SAT WHILE A NEAR
ZONAL FLOW SETS UP DURING THE DAY...AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS SAT
NIGHT-SUN MORNING. THE PATTERN KEEPS THE AREA DRY THOUGH COLD THRU
SAT WITH TEMPS STILL RUNNING BELOW NORMAL. WARMING TREND BY SAT
NIGHT AS WINDS BACK TO SW FLOW...WITH 850MB TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND
-5 DEGREES CELSIUS.

NEXT CHC FOR PCPN SUN-MON WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER GOM AND
RIDING A NEAR STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. SOME QUESTION REMAINS
ON PCPN TIMING AND INTENSITY...AND AS SUCH THEN P-TYPE. GFS/CMC
STRONGER SOLUTIONS WITH THE LOW DEVELOPMENT AS UPPER LVL TROUGH DIGS
DEEPER SOUTH...AND PICKS UP SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING THE SOUTHERN
STREAM...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS MORE OF A SEPARATION. WENT WITH
LIKELY POPS BY SUN AFTN OVER WESTERN AREAS TO HIGHLIGHT THE HIGHER
CONFIDENCE OF PCPN...THEN SPREADING THE LIKELY POPS TO THE EAST FOR
SUN NIGHT-MON. CONCERNING PCPN TYPE...MAINTAINED MAINLY A SNOW
EVENT...WITH PSBL TRANSITION TO RAIN DURING THE AFTN SUN OVER JUST
THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA. HIGHER CONFIDENCE ANY PCPN ON
MONDAY REMAINS ALL SNOW WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING -10 TO -15 DEGREES
CELSIUS DURING THE DAY. AS THE LOW BECOMES CLEARER ON SUBSEQUENT
SHIFTS...WILL BE ABLE TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON P-TYPE AND AMTS AT
THE ONSET.

PCPN CLEARS THE AREA BY TUES MORNING...WITH SFC HIGH BRINGING
ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRY AND COLD TEMPS. TRENDED COLDER WITH HIGHS TUES
AND LOWS TUES NIGHT AS A RESULT. MODEL DIVERGENCE BY MID WEEK ON THE
HANDLING OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH PCPN PSBL ONCE AGAIN
LATE WED-THURS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TONIGHT. STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH A COUPLE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 35 TO 40 KNOTS FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SAT NIGHT...VFR LIKELY...PSBL SUB-VFR LATE SAT NIGHT.
GUSTY NW WINDS 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS FRI NIGHT...BCMG LESS
THAN 10 KTS BY SAT AFTN. PSBL LLWS FRI NIGHT WITH 2KFT WINDS 40-50
KTS.

SUN-MON...SUB-VFR LIKELY WITH PCPN...PSBL SUB-IFR SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING. WINTRY MIX PSBL. INCREASING NW WINDS MON...GUSTS TO 20 KTS.

MON NIGHT-TUES NIGHT...VFR LIKELY.

WED-WED NIGHT...SUB-VFR PSBL WITH PCPN.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TODAY. THE COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH TONIGHT AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. A GALE WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS FRIDAY.

GALES LIKELY AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY NIGHT ON CHESAPEAKE
BAY...AND POSSIBLY ON THE UPPER POTOMAC. OCNL GALES MAY LINGER TILL
DAYBREAK SAT ON THE BAY. WINDS SUBSIDE SAT BUT REMAINING 15-20 KTS
DURING THE DAY. WINDS DIMINISH SAT NIGHT...AND REMAIN SUB-SCA
THROUGH SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW SUN
NIGHT-MON...SCA CONDITIONS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE AGAIN. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ501.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ003-
     502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ004>006-011-503>508.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ503.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ027-
     028-030-031-504.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ052-
     053-501-505-506.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ501-503-
     505.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ050>053-055-502-504-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...HAS/BJL/SEARS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 291824 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
124 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WINDY AND COLD
CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA SATURDAY...BUT LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED A TIER OF
COUNTIES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...INCLUDING MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN WASHINGTON DC SUBURBS AND MUCH OF THE BALTIMORE METRO
AREA. THE ADZY GOES INTO EFFECT AT 3PM UNTIL PM FOR AREAS E OF THE
BLUE RIDGE MTNS. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS QUICKLY ARRIVING OVER THE
APLCNS FROM THE WEST...PRECIP OUT AHEAD WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN INTO
THE COLD/DRY AIR AND POTENTIALLY FREEZING ON SFCS WHERE TEMPS
REMAIN AOB FREEZING.

FROM PREV DISC...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC WILL ALLOW TEMPS AND DEWPTS TO RISE
TODAY. SNOW PACK ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC WILL SLOW TEMPS FROM
RISING AS FAST AS CENTRAL VA AND SOUTHERN MD. SFC TEMPS WILL BE A
CONCERN TODAY AS THE GROUND IS FROZEN IN MANY PLACES. CLOUD COVER
MOVING OVERHEAD WILL ALSO SLOW TEMPS FROM RISING TODAY AS WELL.
THAT BEING SAID...TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S NEAR THE MD/PA
BORDER TO THE LOW 40S FROM DCA-CHO-NHK. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
HELP SCOUR OUT VALLEYS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS WELL AND SHD-
WOO-W99 SHOULD RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S. A CAVEAT IS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ON THE BLUE RIDGE AND WESTWARD. ZR IS POSSIBLE AS TEMPS
MAY STAY BELOW FREEZING. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.

A WINTER WX ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE NRN OUTLOOK AREA. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED TODAY. DCA IS ALREADY AT 31 DEGREES BUT SURROUNDING
SUBURBS ARE IN THE 20S. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PTYPE NEAR
THE I-95 CORRIDOR DURING THE EVENING RUSH HOUR. AT THIS TIME...TEMPS
ARE FCST TO GO ABOVE FREEZING EAST OF THE WINTER WX ADVISORY. AS
GUIDANCE COMES IN THIS MORNING DECISIONS WILL BE MADE IF WE NEED TO
EXTEND THE ADVISORY FURTHER EAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE AWAY FROM MOST AREAS THIS EVENING AND THE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OVERNIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIDGES.
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE MIDWEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE QUITE STRONG...RESULTING IN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AND A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN COLD CONDITIONS. IN FACT...TEMPS MAY
HOLD STEADY OR EVEN FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS
TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S IN SOUTHERN MARYLAND. MORE UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL NOON...BUT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS ANOTHER POTENT UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS
THROUGH THE AREA. MOST AREAS WILL NOT SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW...BUT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO COMBINE WITH STRONG COLD
ADVECTION FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS. THIS COULD LEAVE A QUICK COATING IN SPOTS AND WITH SUDDEN
CHANGES IN VISIBILITY THAT COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
TRAVEL...ALTHOUGH IT WOULD BE LOCALIZED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND...EASTERN
WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA.

COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
AND EAST. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ALLEGHENY FRONT FRI
EVENING EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THE NW FLOW INJECTS MUCH DRIER AIR.
MAIN CONCERN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS...ALMOST 10-15 DEGREES BELOW. COMBINING WITH NW WINDS WITH
GUSTS 20-30 KTS...AND IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS 30-35 KTS...WIND CHILLS
FORECASTED TO DROP TO AROUND -10 DEGREES CELSIUS POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS...NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE...AND
POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY POTENTIAL IN THE HWO...MAINLY FOR
THE FAR WESTERN AREAS. USED A BLEND OF ADJMETBC/MOSBC WHICH HAS BEEN
TRENDING WELL FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CENTER OF THE HIGH SLIPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE SE US SAT WHILE A NEAR
ZONAL FLOW SETS UP DURING THE DAY...AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS SAT
NIGHT-SUN MORNING. THE PATTERN KEEPS THE AREA DRY THOUGH COLD THRU
SAT WITH TEMPS STILL RUNNING BELOW NORMAL. WARMING TREND BY SAT
NIGHT AS WINDS BACK TO SW FLOW...WITH 850MB TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND
-5 DEGREES CELSIUS.

NEXT CHC FOR PCPN SUN-MON WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER GOM AND
RIDING A NEAR STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. SOME QUESTION REMAINS
ON PCPN TIMING AND INTENSITY...AND AS SUCH THEN P-TYPE. GFS/CMC
STRONGER SOLUTIONS WITH THE LOW DEVELOPMENT AS UPPER LVL TROUGH DIGS
DEEPER SOUTH...AND PICKS UP SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING THE SOUTHERN
STREAM...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS MORE OF A SEPARATION. WENT WITH
LIKELY POPS BY SUN AFTN OVER WESTERN AREAS TO HIGHLIGHT THE HIGHER
CONFIDENCE OF PCPN...THEN SPREADING THE LIKELY POPS TO THE EAST FOR
SUN NIGHT-MON. CONCERNING PCPN TYPE...MAINTAINED MAINLY A SNOW
EVENT...WITH PSBL TRANSITION TO RAIN DURING THE AFTN SUN OVER JUST
THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA. HIGHER CONFIDENCE ANY PCPN ON
MONDAY REMAINS ALL SNOW WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING -10 TO -15 DEGREES
CELSIUS DURING THE DAY. AS THE LOW BECOMES CLEARER ON SUBSEQUENT
SHIFTS...WILL BE ABLE TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON P-TYPE AND AMTS AT
THE ONSET.

PCPN CLEARS THE AREA BY TUES MORNING...WITH SFC HIGH BRINGING
ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRY AND COLD TEMPS. TRENDED COLDER WITH HIGHS TUES
AND LOWS TUES NIGHT AS A RESULT. MODEL DIVERGENCE BY MID WEEK ON THE
HANDLING OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH PCPN PSBL ONCE AGAIN
LATE WED-THURS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TONIGHT. STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH A COUPLE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 35 TO 40 KNOTS FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SAT NIGHT...VFR LIKELY...PSBL SUB-VFR LATE SAT NIGHT.
GUSTY NW WINDS 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS FRI NIGHT...BCMG LESS
THAN 10 KTS BY SAT AFTN. PSBL LLWS FRI NIGHT WITH 2KFT WINDS 40-50
KTS.

SUN-MON...SUB-VFR LIKELY WITH PCPN...PSBL SUB-IFR SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING. WINTRY MIX PSBL. INCREASING NW WINDS MON...GUSTS TO 20 KTS.

MON NIGHT-TUES NIGHT...VFR LIKELY.

WED-WED NIGHT...SUB-VFR PSBL WITH PCPN.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TODAY. THE COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH TONIGHT AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. A GALE WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS FRIDAY.

GALES LIKELY AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY NIGHT ON CHESAPEAKE
BAY...AND POSSIBLY ON THE UPPER POTOMAC. OCNL GALES MAY LINGER TILL
DAYBREAK SAT ON THE BAY. WINDS SUBSIDE SAT BUT REMAINING 15-20 KTS
DURING THE DAY. WINDS DIMINISH SAT NIGHT...AND REMAIN SUB-SCA
THROUGH SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW SUN
NIGHT-MON...SCA CONDITIONS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE AGAIN. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ501.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ003-
     502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ004>006-011-503>508.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ503.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ027-
     028-030-031-504.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ052-
     053-501-505-506.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ501-503-
     505.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ050>053-055-502-504-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...HAS/BJL/SEARS







  [top]

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291810
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
110 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS
TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES WILL
AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE SSE THROUGH
THE DAY AS ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES AND
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST U.S. TODAY. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTN AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP BTWN THE HIGH SHIFTING SSE AND THE APPROACHING CLIPPER
SYSTEM. THE MIXING SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES WEST...WITH HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EAST. OVERALL
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S (LOW-MID 40S NRN NECK AND
MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGH CLOUDS BTWN 15-20KFT WILL ALSO INCREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND MAY HAMPER TEMPS FROM
WARMING ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO BUT EXPECT MIXING TO OVERCOME THIS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA.

A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM. AT THE ONSET...PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING NORTH OF RICHMOND FROM
ROUGHLY LOUISA TO SALISBURY AND THEN SHIFT OVER THE MD LOWER
EASTERN SHORE THIS EVENING BEFORE LIFTING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS BEGIN AROUND 6KFT AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN. THERE IS A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIFT THROUGH THE BOTTOM PORTIONS OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
(00-03Z)...THEREFORE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SLEET BRIEFLY
MIXING WITH RAIN OVER THE NRN NECK/MD EASTERN SHORE AFTER DARK.
PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END LATE IN THE EVENING AS BEST
MOISTURE/ENERGY LIFTS NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BE VERY LIMITED WITH QPF AMTS NO HIGHER THAN
0.03 INCHES AT BEST. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS CENTERED AROUND
06Z (1 AM) AND IS EXPECTED TO BE OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK. COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND DRYING ALOFT WILL COMMENCE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
UNSTABLE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW WLY WINDS TO REMAIN
BREEZY OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S NW TO UPPER 30S
FAR SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL BE A COLD BRISK DAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS A
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING IN
A VERY TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. GUSTY NW WINDS OF 30-35 MPH
WILL DEVELOP BY MID MORNING AND PERSIST INTO FRI EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVER INLAND AREAS. CLOSER TO THE COAST...WINDS MAY
GUST UP TO 40 MPH AT TIMES DURING THE DAY AND THEN REMAIN GUSTY TO
AROUND 30 MPH FRI NIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE IN FULL FORCE
FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL DESPITE THE WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE LOW-MID 40S (UPPER 30S NRN NECK AND MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). LOW
FRI NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS NORTH AND WEST OF RICHMOND...
LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE...UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE COMBINATION OF
WIND AND COLD TEMPS WILL KEEP WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S DURING THE DAY FRI...AND FROM 5-15 DEGREES FRI NIGHT.

THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
SAT/SAT NIGHT WITH A CONTINUATION OF COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S MOST AREAS...UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST FROM
THE NRN NECK TO VIRGINIA BEACH...AND IN THE LOW-MID 30S MD/VA
EASTERN SHORE. NW WINDS REMAIN BREEZY ALONG THE COAST ON SAT WITH
GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH AND WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM THE
MID-UPPER 30S SW TO LOW-MID 20S NE. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE 20S WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM SW TO NE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TIMING DIFFERENCES ALONG WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT 12Z MODEL CHANGES
MAKES THIS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST SUN INTO MON. GFS MUCH FASTER
IN BRINGING PCPN ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC RGN SUNDAY THAN BOTH THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN. THE QUICKER GFS SOLN WOULD LEAD TO P-TYPE ISSUES
ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS SUNDAY WHILE THE SLOWER SOLNS WUD MAINLY BE
RAIN (OR A RAIN WET SNOW MIX ACROSS THE NORTH) IN THE AFTN.
CONVERSELY...THE GFS IS QUICKER TO END PCPN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE SLOWER SOLNS KEEP PCPN GOING FOR THE BETTER PART OF MON WITH
COLDER AIR OOZING SOUTH.

WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...TRIED TO BLEND THE FORECAST AS MUCH AS PSBL
KNOWING THAT LATER MODEL RUNS SHOULD SHED BETTER LIGHT ON THE SYSTM.
DRY AND COLD SAT NIGHT WITH INCRG CLDNS. LOWS IN THE 20S XCPT L30S
SERN CSTL AREAS. KEPT A BIT OF FCST CONTINUITY AND BROUGHT LOW CHC
POPS ACROSS WRN CNTYS SUNDAY MORNING. THICKNESSES SUGGEST SOME SLEET
PSBL AT THE START ACROSS NWRN MOST CNTYS WITH RAIN OVRSPRDG THE FA
SUNDAY AFTN AS THE LOW PRS TRACKS ACROSS NRN VA. HIGHS IN THE 40S
AS THE COLD AIR LURKS JUST NORTH OF THE FA. LIKELY RAIN SUNDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE FA...BUT LWRD TO CHC POPS AFTR MIDNIGHT. KEPT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS LATE AS THE PCPN ENDS. ANY P TYPE
ISSUES WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH CAN
COME SOUTH BEFORE PCPN ENDS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO NR 40
ACROSS NC NE CNTYS NR THE ALBEMARLE SND.

SPLIT MONDAYS FCST UP INTO 2 SEGMENTS AS WELL. CHC RAIN ALONG AND
EAST OF I-95 IN THE MORNING...DRYING IT OUT IN THE AFTN AS THE
TRAILING FRNT CLRS THE COAST. COULD EVEN SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
THE LWR MD ERN SHORE ERLY MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE U30S N TO M-U40S S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT THRU TUES NIGHT.
LOWS MON NITE UTEENS TO U20S. HIGHS TUE IN THE 30S. LOWS TUE NIGHT
IN THE 20S TO NR 30.

YET ANTHR MOIST SRN STREAM SYSTM PROGGED TO COME OUT OF THE GULF
COAST STATES AND MOVE NE ALONG THE SERN COAST WED. THIS SYSTM BEARS
WATCHING AS THE COLD AIR MAY BE HARDER TO DISLODGE. WENT WITH CHC
POPS (LIQUID) FOR NOW WITH HIGHS 40-45.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW. A SOUTHERLY WIND AVERAGING 5-10KT IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNDER BKN-OVC MID/HIGH CLOUDS
(CIGS AOA 15KFT).

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH ONLY A
MINIMAL CHC OF -SHRA MAINLY AT SBY...WHICH COULD END AS A MIX OF
-RASN. CIGS WILL AVG 5-10 K FT. A GUSTY NW WIND IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT (MAYBE AS HIGH AS 35 KT AT KSBY) AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. THAT AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH
A MORE MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED SCA`S THROUGH 10 AM FOR NC COASTAL WATERS...OTHERWISE ALL
HEADLINES HAVE ENDED IN THE NEAR TERM.

ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF "SUB SCA" CONDITIONS TODAY BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. N WINDS BECOME RATHER LIGHT BY
MID-LATE MORNING...THEN SHIFT TO THE SSE THIS AFTN AND EVENTUALLY
THE SSW TONIGHT. HAVE RAISED SCA HEADLINES OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE MARINE AREA LATER THIS EVENING AS SSW WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT.

STILL...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT EVENT COMES FRI/FRI NIGHT IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT AS VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL BRING OPTIMAL MIXING
IN WHAT WILL ALREADY BE A STRONG GRADIENT WIND. HAVE RAISED GALE
WARNINGS FOR MOST OF THE REGION...WITH STRONG SCA`S EXPECTED FOR
THE UPPER JAMES AND CURRITUCK SOUND. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST TO
35-40 KT ACRS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND THE BAY...WITH 40-45
KT OVER COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND. RAPPAHANNOCK/YORK
AND LOWER JAMES WILL BE MORE MARGINAL FOR GALES BUT DECIDED TO GO
FOR IT DUE TO THE OPTIMAL MIXING SCENARIO AND 900 MB WINDS PROGGED
TO BE CLOSE TO 40 KT. GIVEN TMPS FALLING BLO 30 DEGREES...FREEZING
SPRAY REMAINS IN FORECAST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZING SPRAY
ADVSRY ACROSS NRN CSTL WTRS WHERE AIR TMPS IN THE L20S ARE XPCTD.
SEAS/WAVES QUICKLY INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE GUSTY WINDS. SEAS
AVG 7-10 FT WITH BAY WAVES 4-6 FT DURING THIS PERIOD.

CNDTNS BEGIN TO IMPROVE SAT AFTN/NIGHT AS THE CANADIAN HIGH TRACKS OVR
THE RGN. NXT SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE SUN INTO MON. WILL LIKELY SEE ANTHR ROUND OF SCA`S
WITH THIS SYSTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ630>632-634>636-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR ANZ633-637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ630-631-650-652.
     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652-654.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD/MAS
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...AJZ/LKB
MARINE...LKB/MPR




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291810
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
110 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS
TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES WILL
AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE SSE THROUGH
THE DAY AS ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES AND
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST U.S. TODAY. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTN AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP BTWN THE HIGH SHIFTING SSE AND THE APPROACHING CLIPPER
SYSTEM. THE MIXING SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES WEST...WITH HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EAST. OVERALL
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S (LOW-MID 40S NRN NECK AND
MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGH CLOUDS BTWN 15-20KFT WILL ALSO INCREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND MAY HAMPER TEMPS FROM
WARMING ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO BUT EXPECT MIXING TO OVERCOME THIS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA.

A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM. AT THE ONSET...PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING NORTH OF RICHMOND FROM
ROUGHLY LOUISA TO SALISBURY AND THEN SHIFT OVER THE MD LOWER
EASTERN SHORE THIS EVENING BEFORE LIFTING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS BEGIN AROUND 6KFT AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN. THERE IS A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIFT THROUGH THE BOTTOM PORTIONS OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
(00-03Z)...THEREFORE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SLEET BRIEFLY
MIXING WITH RAIN OVER THE NRN NECK/MD EASTERN SHORE AFTER DARK.
PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END LATE IN THE EVENING AS BEST
MOISTURE/ENERGY LIFTS NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BE VERY LIMITED WITH QPF AMTS NO HIGHER THAN
0.03 INCHES AT BEST. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS CENTERED AROUND
06Z (1 AM) AND IS EXPECTED TO BE OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK. COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND DRYING ALOFT WILL COMMENCE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
UNSTABLE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW WLY WINDS TO REMAIN
BREEZY OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S NW TO UPPER 30S
FAR SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL BE A COLD BRISK DAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS A
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING IN
A VERY TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. GUSTY NW WINDS OF 30-35 MPH
WILL DEVELOP BY MID MORNING AND PERSIST INTO FRI EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVER INLAND AREAS. CLOSER TO THE COAST...WINDS MAY
GUST UP TO 40 MPH AT TIMES DURING THE DAY AND THEN REMAIN GUSTY TO
AROUND 30 MPH FRI NIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE IN FULL FORCE
FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL DESPITE THE WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE LOW-MID 40S (UPPER 30S NRN NECK AND MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). LOW
FRI NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS NORTH AND WEST OF RICHMOND...
LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE...UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE COMBINATION OF
WIND AND COLD TEMPS WILL KEEP WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S DURING THE DAY FRI...AND FROM 5-15 DEGREES FRI NIGHT.

THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
SAT/SAT NIGHT WITH A CONTINUATION OF COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S MOST AREAS...UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST FROM
THE NRN NECK TO VIRGINIA BEACH...AND IN THE LOW-MID 30S MD/VA
EASTERN SHORE. NW WINDS REMAIN BREEZY ALONG THE COAST ON SAT WITH
GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH AND WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM THE
MID-UPPER 30S SW TO LOW-MID 20S NE. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE 20S WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM SW TO NE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TIMING DIFFERENCES ALONG WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT 12Z MODEL CHANGES
MAKES THIS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST SUN INTO MON. GFS MUCH FASTER
IN BRINGING PCPN ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC RGN SUNDAY THAN BOTH THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN. THE QUICKER GFS SOLN WOULD LEAD TO P-TYPE ISSUES
ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS SUNDAY WHILE THE SLOWER SOLNS WUD MAINLY BE
RAIN (OR A RAIN WET SNOW MIX ACROSS THE NORTH) IN THE AFTN.
CONVERSELY...THE GFS IS QUICKER TO END PCPN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE SLOWER SOLNS KEEP PCPN GOING FOR THE BETTER PART OF MON WITH
COLDER AIR OOZING SOUTH.

WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...TRIED TO BLEND THE FORECAST AS MUCH AS PSBL
KNOWING THAT LATER MODEL RUNS SHOULD SHED BETTER LIGHT ON THE SYSTM.
DRY AND COLD SAT NIGHT WITH INCRG CLDNS. LOWS IN THE 20S XCPT L30S
SERN CSTL AREAS. KEPT A BIT OF FCST CONTINUITY AND BROUGHT LOW CHC
POPS ACROSS WRN CNTYS SUNDAY MORNING. THICKNESSES SUGGEST SOME SLEET
PSBL AT THE START ACROSS NWRN MOST CNTYS WITH RAIN OVRSPRDG THE FA
SUNDAY AFTN AS THE LOW PRS TRACKS ACROSS NRN VA. HIGHS IN THE 40S
AS THE COLD AIR LURKS JUST NORTH OF THE FA. LIKELY RAIN SUNDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE FA...BUT LWRD TO CHC POPS AFTR MIDNIGHT. KEPT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS LATE AS THE PCPN ENDS. ANY P TYPE
ISSUES WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH CAN
COME SOUTH BEFORE PCPN ENDS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO NR 40
ACROSS NC NE CNTYS NR THE ALBEMARLE SND.

SPLIT MONDAYS FCST UP INTO 2 SEGMENTS AS WELL. CHC RAIN ALONG AND
EAST OF I-95 IN THE MORNING...DRYING IT OUT IN THE AFTN AS THE
TRAILING FRNT CLRS THE COAST. COULD EVEN SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
THE LWR MD ERN SHORE ERLY MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE U30S N TO M-U40S S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT THRU TUES NIGHT.
LOWS MON NITE UTEENS TO U20S. HIGHS TUE IN THE 30S. LOWS TUE NIGHT
IN THE 20S TO NR 30.

YET ANTHR MOIST SRN STREAM SYSTM PROGGED TO COME OUT OF THE GULF
COAST STATES AND MOVE NE ALONG THE SERN COAST WED. THIS SYSTM BEARS
WATCHING AS THE COLD AIR MAY BE HARDER TO DISLODGE. WENT WITH CHC
POPS (LIQUID) FOR NOW WITH HIGHS 40-45.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW. A SOUTHERLY WIND AVERAGING 5-10KT IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNDER BKN-OVC MID/HIGH CLOUDS
(CIGS AOA 15KFT).

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH ONLY A
MINIMAL CHC OF -SHRA MAINLY AT SBY...WHICH COULD END AS A MIX OF
-RASN. CIGS WILL AVG 5-10 K FT. A GUSTY NW WIND IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT (MAYBE AS HIGH AS 35 KT AT KSBY) AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. THAT AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH
A MORE MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED SCA`S THROUGH 10 AM FOR NC COASTAL WATERS...OTHERWISE ALL
HEADLINES HAVE ENDED IN THE NEAR TERM.

ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF "SUB SCA" CONDITIONS TODAY BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. N WINDS BECOME RATHER LIGHT BY
MID-LATE MORNING...THEN SHIFT TO THE SSE THIS AFTN AND EVENTUALLY
THE SSW TONIGHT. HAVE RAISED SCA HEADLINES OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE MARINE AREA LATER THIS EVENING AS SSW WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT.

STILL...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT EVENT COMES FRI/FRI NIGHT IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT AS VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL BRING OPTIMAL MIXING
IN WHAT WILL ALREADY BE A STRONG GRADIENT WIND. HAVE RAISED GALE
WARNINGS FOR MOST OF THE REGION...WITH STRONG SCA`S EXPECTED FOR
THE UPPER JAMES AND CURRITUCK SOUND. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST TO
35-40 KT ACRS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND THE BAY...WITH 40-45
KT OVER COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND. RAPPAHANNOCK/YORK
AND LOWER JAMES WILL BE MORE MARGINAL FOR GALES BUT DECIDED TO GO
FOR IT DUE TO THE OPTIMAL MIXING SCENARIO AND 900 MB WINDS PROGGED
TO BE CLOSE TO 40 KT. GIVEN TMPS FALLING BLO 30 DEGREES...FREEZING
SPRAY REMAINS IN FORECAST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZING SPRAY
ADVSRY ACROSS NRN CSTL WTRS WHERE AIR TMPS IN THE L20S ARE XPCTD.
SEAS/WAVES QUICKLY INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE GUSTY WINDS. SEAS
AVG 7-10 FT WITH BAY WAVES 4-6 FT DURING THIS PERIOD.

CNDTNS BEGIN TO IMPROVE SAT AFTN/NIGHT AS THE CANADIAN HIGH TRACKS OVR
THE RGN. NXT SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE SUN INTO MON. WILL LIKELY SEE ANTHR ROUND OF SCA`S
WITH THIS SYSTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ630>632-634>636-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR ANZ633-637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ630-631-650-652.
     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652-654.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD/MAS
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...AJZ/LKB
MARINE...LKB/MPR




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291810
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
110 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS
TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES WILL
AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE SSE THROUGH
THE DAY AS ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES AND
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST U.S. TODAY. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTN AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP BTWN THE HIGH SHIFTING SSE AND THE APPROACHING CLIPPER
SYSTEM. THE MIXING SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES WEST...WITH HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EAST. OVERALL
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S (LOW-MID 40S NRN NECK AND
MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGH CLOUDS BTWN 15-20KFT WILL ALSO INCREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND MAY HAMPER TEMPS FROM
WARMING ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO BUT EXPECT MIXING TO OVERCOME THIS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA.

A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM. AT THE ONSET...PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING NORTH OF RICHMOND FROM
ROUGHLY LOUISA TO SALISBURY AND THEN SHIFT OVER THE MD LOWER
EASTERN SHORE THIS EVENING BEFORE LIFTING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS BEGIN AROUND 6KFT AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN. THERE IS A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIFT THROUGH THE BOTTOM PORTIONS OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
(00-03Z)...THEREFORE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SLEET BRIEFLY
MIXING WITH RAIN OVER THE NRN NECK/MD EASTERN SHORE AFTER DARK.
PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END LATE IN THE EVENING AS BEST
MOISTURE/ENERGY LIFTS NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BE VERY LIMITED WITH QPF AMTS NO HIGHER THAN
0.03 INCHES AT BEST. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS CENTERED AROUND
06Z (1 AM) AND IS EXPECTED TO BE OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK. COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND DRYING ALOFT WILL COMMENCE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
UNSTABLE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW WLY WINDS TO REMAIN
BREEZY OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S NW TO UPPER 30S
FAR SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL BE A COLD BRISK DAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS A
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING IN
A VERY TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. GUSTY NW WINDS OF 30-35 MPH
WILL DEVELOP BY MID MORNING AND PERSIST INTO FRI EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVER INLAND AREAS. CLOSER TO THE COAST...WINDS MAY
GUST UP TO 40 MPH AT TIMES DURING THE DAY AND THEN REMAIN GUSTY TO
AROUND 30 MPH FRI NIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE IN FULL FORCE
FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL DESPITE THE WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE LOW-MID 40S (UPPER 30S NRN NECK AND MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). LOW
FRI NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS NORTH AND WEST OF RICHMOND...
LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE...UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE COMBINATION OF
WIND AND COLD TEMPS WILL KEEP WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S DURING THE DAY FRI...AND FROM 5-15 DEGREES FRI NIGHT.

THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
SAT/SAT NIGHT WITH A CONTINUATION OF COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S MOST AREAS...UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST FROM
THE NRN NECK TO VIRGINIA BEACH...AND IN THE LOW-MID 30S MD/VA
EASTERN SHORE. NW WINDS REMAIN BREEZY ALONG THE COAST ON SAT WITH
GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH AND WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM THE
MID-UPPER 30S SW TO LOW-MID 20S NE. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE 20S WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM SW TO NE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TIMING DIFFERENCES ALONG WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT 12Z MODEL CHANGES
MAKES THIS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST SUN INTO MON. GFS MUCH FASTER
IN BRINGING PCPN ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC RGN SUNDAY THAN BOTH THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN. THE QUICKER GFS SOLN WOULD LEAD TO P-TYPE ISSUES
ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS SUNDAY WHILE THE SLOWER SOLNS WUD MAINLY BE
RAIN (OR A RAIN WET SNOW MIX ACROSS THE NORTH) IN THE AFTN.
CONVERSELY...THE GFS IS QUICKER TO END PCPN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE SLOWER SOLNS KEEP PCPN GOING FOR THE BETTER PART OF MON WITH
COLDER AIR OOZING SOUTH.

WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...TRIED TO BLEND THE FORECAST AS MUCH AS PSBL
KNOWING THAT LATER MODEL RUNS SHOULD SHED BETTER LIGHT ON THE SYSTM.
DRY AND COLD SAT NIGHT WITH INCRG CLDNS. LOWS IN THE 20S XCPT L30S
SERN CSTL AREAS. KEPT A BIT OF FCST CONTINUITY AND BROUGHT LOW CHC
POPS ACROSS WRN CNTYS SUNDAY MORNING. THICKNESSES SUGGEST SOME SLEET
PSBL AT THE START ACROSS NWRN MOST CNTYS WITH RAIN OVRSPRDG THE FA
SUNDAY AFTN AS THE LOW PRS TRACKS ACROSS NRN VA. HIGHS IN THE 40S
AS THE COLD AIR LURKS JUST NORTH OF THE FA. LIKELY RAIN SUNDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE FA...BUT LWRD TO CHC POPS AFTR MIDNIGHT. KEPT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS LATE AS THE PCPN ENDS. ANY P TYPE
ISSUES WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH CAN
COME SOUTH BEFORE PCPN ENDS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO NR 40
ACROSS NC NE CNTYS NR THE ALBEMARLE SND.

SPLIT MONDAYS FCST UP INTO 2 SEGMENTS AS WELL. CHC RAIN ALONG AND
EAST OF I-95 IN THE MORNING...DRYING IT OUT IN THE AFTN AS THE
TRAILING FRNT CLRS THE COAST. COULD EVEN SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
THE LWR MD ERN SHORE ERLY MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE U30S N TO M-U40S S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT THRU TUES NIGHT.
LOWS MON NITE UTEENS TO U20S. HIGHS TUE IN THE 30S. LOWS TUE NIGHT
IN THE 20S TO NR 30.

YET ANTHR MOIST SRN STREAM SYSTM PROGGED TO COME OUT OF THE GULF
COAST STATES AND MOVE NE ALONG THE SERN COAST WED. THIS SYSTM BEARS
WATCHING AS THE COLD AIR MAY BE HARDER TO DISLODGE. WENT WITH CHC
POPS (LIQUID) FOR NOW WITH HIGHS 40-45.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW. A SOUTHERLY WIND AVERAGING 5-10KT IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNDER BKN-OVC MID/HIGH CLOUDS
(CIGS AOA 15KFT).

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH ONLY A
MINIMAL CHC OF -SHRA MAINLY AT SBY...WHICH COULD END AS A MIX OF
-RASN. CIGS WILL AVG 5-10 K FT. A GUSTY NW WIND IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT (MAYBE AS HIGH AS 35 KT AT KSBY) AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. THAT AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH
A MORE MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED SCA`S THROUGH 10 AM FOR NC COASTAL WATERS...OTHERWISE ALL
HEADLINES HAVE ENDED IN THE NEAR TERM.

ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF "SUB SCA" CONDITIONS TODAY BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. N WINDS BECOME RATHER LIGHT BY
MID-LATE MORNING...THEN SHIFT TO THE SSE THIS AFTN AND EVENTUALLY
THE SSW TONIGHT. HAVE RAISED SCA HEADLINES OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE MARINE AREA LATER THIS EVENING AS SSW WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT.

STILL...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT EVENT COMES FRI/FRI NIGHT IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT AS VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL BRING OPTIMAL MIXING
IN WHAT WILL ALREADY BE A STRONG GRADIENT WIND. HAVE RAISED GALE
WARNINGS FOR MOST OF THE REGION...WITH STRONG SCA`S EXPECTED FOR
THE UPPER JAMES AND CURRITUCK SOUND. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST TO
35-40 KT ACRS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND THE BAY...WITH 40-45
KT OVER COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND. RAPPAHANNOCK/YORK
AND LOWER JAMES WILL BE MORE MARGINAL FOR GALES BUT DECIDED TO GO
FOR IT DUE TO THE OPTIMAL MIXING SCENARIO AND 900 MB WINDS PROGGED
TO BE CLOSE TO 40 KT. GIVEN TMPS FALLING BLO 30 DEGREES...FREEZING
SPRAY REMAINS IN FORECAST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZING SPRAY
ADVSRY ACROSS NRN CSTL WTRS WHERE AIR TMPS IN THE L20S ARE XPCTD.
SEAS/WAVES QUICKLY INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE GUSTY WINDS. SEAS
AVG 7-10 FT WITH BAY WAVES 4-6 FT DURING THIS PERIOD.

CNDTNS BEGIN TO IMPROVE SAT AFTN/NIGHT AS THE CANADIAN HIGH TRACKS OVR
THE RGN. NXT SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE SUN INTO MON. WILL LIKELY SEE ANTHR ROUND OF SCA`S
WITH THIS SYSTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ630>632-634>636-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR ANZ633-637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ630-631-650-652.
     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652-654.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD/MAS
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...AJZ/LKB
MARINE...LKB/MPR




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291810
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
110 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS
TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES WILL
AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE SSE THROUGH
THE DAY AS ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES AND
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST U.S. TODAY. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTN AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP BTWN THE HIGH SHIFTING SSE AND THE APPROACHING CLIPPER
SYSTEM. THE MIXING SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES WEST...WITH HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EAST. OVERALL
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S (LOW-MID 40S NRN NECK AND
MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGH CLOUDS BTWN 15-20KFT WILL ALSO INCREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND MAY HAMPER TEMPS FROM
WARMING ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO BUT EXPECT MIXING TO OVERCOME THIS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA.

A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM. AT THE ONSET...PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING NORTH OF RICHMOND FROM
ROUGHLY LOUISA TO SALISBURY AND THEN SHIFT OVER THE MD LOWER
EASTERN SHORE THIS EVENING BEFORE LIFTING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS BEGIN AROUND 6KFT AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN. THERE IS A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIFT THROUGH THE BOTTOM PORTIONS OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
(00-03Z)...THEREFORE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SLEET BRIEFLY
MIXING WITH RAIN OVER THE NRN NECK/MD EASTERN SHORE AFTER DARK.
PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END LATE IN THE EVENING AS BEST
MOISTURE/ENERGY LIFTS NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BE VERY LIMITED WITH QPF AMTS NO HIGHER THAN
0.03 INCHES AT BEST. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS CENTERED AROUND
06Z (1 AM) AND IS EXPECTED TO BE OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK. COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND DRYING ALOFT WILL COMMENCE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
UNSTABLE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW WLY WINDS TO REMAIN
BREEZY OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S NW TO UPPER 30S
FAR SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL BE A COLD BRISK DAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS A
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING IN
A VERY TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. GUSTY NW WINDS OF 30-35 MPH
WILL DEVELOP BY MID MORNING AND PERSIST INTO FRI EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVER INLAND AREAS. CLOSER TO THE COAST...WINDS MAY
GUST UP TO 40 MPH AT TIMES DURING THE DAY AND THEN REMAIN GUSTY TO
AROUND 30 MPH FRI NIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE IN FULL FORCE
FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL DESPITE THE WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE LOW-MID 40S (UPPER 30S NRN NECK AND MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). LOW
FRI NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS NORTH AND WEST OF RICHMOND...
LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE...UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE COMBINATION OF
WIND AND COLD TEMPS WILL KEEP WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S DURING THE DAY FRI...AND FROM 5-15 DEGREES FRI NIGHT.

THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
SAT/SAT NIGHT WITH A CONTINUATION OF COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S MOST AREAS...UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST FROM
THE NRN NECK TO VIRGINIA BEACH...AND IN THE LOW-MID 30S MD/VA
EASTERN SHORE. NW WINDS REMAIN BREEZY ALONG THE COAST ON SAT WITH
GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH AND WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM THE
MID-UPPER 30S SW TO LOW-MID 20S NE. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE 20S WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM SW TO NE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TIMING DIFFERENCES ALONG WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT 12Z MODEL CHANGES
MAKES THIS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST SUN INTO MON. GFS MUCH FASTER
IN BRINGING PCPN ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC RGN SUNDAY THAN BOTH THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN. THE QUICKER GFS SOLN WOULD LEAD TO P-TYPE ISSUES
ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS SUNDAY WHILE THE SLOWER SOLNS WUD MAINLY BE
RAIN (OR A RAIN WET SNOW MIX ACROSS THE NORTH) IN THE AFTN.
CONVERSELY...THE GFS IS QUICKER TO END PCPN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE SLOWER SOLNS KEEP PCPN GOING FOR THE BETTER PART OF MON WITH
COLDER AIR OOZING SOUTH.

WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...TRIED TO BLEND THE FORECAST AS MUCH AS PSBL
KNOWING THAT LATER MODEL RUNS SHOULD SHED BETTER LIGHT ON THE SYSTM.
DRY AND COLD SAT NIGHT WITH INCRG CLDNS. LOWS IN THE 20S XCPT L30S
SERN CSTL AREAS. KEPT A BIT OF FCST CONTINUITY AND BROUGHT LOW CHC
POPS ACROSS WRN CNTYS SUNDAY MORNING. THICKNESSES SUGGEST SOME SLEET
PSBL AT THE START ACROSS NWRN MOST CNTYS WITH RAIN OVRSPRDG THE FA
SUNDAY AFTN AS THE LOW PRS TRACKS ACROSS NRN VA. HIGHS IN THE 40S
AS THE COLD AIR LURKS JUST NORTH OF THE FA. LIKELY RAIN SUNDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE FA...BUT LWRD TO CHC POPS AFTR MIDNIGHT. KEPT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS LATE AS THE PCPN ENDS. ANY P TYPE
ISSUES WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH CAN
COME SOUTH BEFORE PCPN ENDS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO NR 40
ACROSS NC NE CNTYS NR THE ALBEMARLE SND.

SPLIT MONDAYS FCST UP INTO 2 SEGMENTS AS WELL. CHC RAIN ALONG AND
EAST OF I-95 IN THE MORNING...DRYING IT OUT IN THE AFTN AS THE
TRAILING FRNT CLRS THE COAST. COULD EVEN SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
THE LWR MD ERN SHORE ERLY MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE U30S N TO M-U40S S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT THRU TUES NIGHT.
LOWS MON NITE UTEENS TO U20S. HIGHS TUE IN THE 30S. LOWS TUE NIGHT
IN THE 20S TO NR 30.

YET ANTHR MOIST SRN STREAM SYSTM PROGGED TO COME OUT OF THE GULF
COAST STATES AND MOVE NE ALONG THE SERN COAST WED. THIS SYSTM BEARS
WATCHING AS THE COLD AIR MAY BE HARDER TO DISLODGE. WENT WITH CHC
POPS (LIQUID) FOR NOW WITH HIGHS 40-45.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW. A SOUTHERLY WIND AVERAGING 5-10KT IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNDER BKN-OVC MID/HIGH CLOUDS
(CIGS AOA 15KFT).

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH ONLY A
MINIMAL CHC OF -SHRA MAINLY AT SBY...WHICH COULD END AS A MIX OF
-RASN. CIGS WILL AVG 5-10 K FT. A GUSTY NW WIND IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT (MAYBE AS HIGH AS 35 KT AT KSBY) AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. THAT AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH
A MORE MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED SCA`S THROUGH 10 AM FOR NC COASTAL WATERS...OTHERWISE ALL
HEADLINES HAVE ENDED IN THE NEAR TERM.

ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF "SUB SCA" CONDITIONS TODAY BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. N WINDS BECOME RATHER LIGHT BY
MID-LATE MORNING...THEN SHIFT TO THE SSE THIS AFTN AND EVENTUALLY
THE SSW TONIGHT. HAVE RAISED SCA HEADLINES OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE MARINE AREA LATER THIS EVENING AS SSW WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT.

STILL...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT EVENT COMES FRI/FRI NIGHT IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT AS VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL BRING OPTIMAL MIXING
IN WHAT WILL ALREADY BE A STRONG GRADIENT WIND. HAVE RAISED GALE
WARNINGS FOR MOST OF THE REGION...WITH STRONG SCA`S EXPECTED FOR
THE UPPER JAMES AND CURRITUCK SOUND. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST TO
35-40 KT ACRS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND THE BAY...WITH 40-45
KT OVER COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND. RAPPAHANNOCK/YORK
AND LOWER JAMES WILL BE MORE MARGINAL FOR GALES BUT DECIDED TO GO
FOR IT DUE TO THE OPTIMAL MIXING SCENARIO AND 900 MB WINDS PROGGED
TO BE CLOSE TO 40 KT. GIVEN TMPS FALLING BLO 30 DEGREES...FREEZING
SPRAY REMAINS IN FORECAST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZING SPRAY
ADVSRY ACROSS NRN CSTL WTRS WHERE AIR TMPS IN THE L20S ARE XPCTD.
SEAS/WAVES QUICKLY INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE GUSTY WINDS. SEAS
AVG 7-10 FT WITH BAY WAVES 4-6 FT DURING THIS PERIOD.

CNDTNS BEGIN TO IMPROVE SAT AFTN/NIGHT AS THE CANADIAN HIGH TRACKS OVR
THE RGN. NXT SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE SUN INTO MON. WILL LIKELY SEE ANTHR ROUND OF SCA`S
WITH THIS SYSTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ630>632-634>636-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR ANZ633-637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ630-631-650-652.
     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652-654.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD/MAS
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...AJZ/LKB
MARINE...LKB/MPR



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPHI 291738
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1238 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW YORK TONIGHT AND THEN
ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. IT WILL SEND AN ARCTIC
FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
MOST OF THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE IS TO UP MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY. THE SNOW
COVER IS NOT HAVING AS MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPS RISING. THIS
ALSO OCCURRED YESTERDAY. THE MESOSCALE MODELS REMAIN PRETTY
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AS TO THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION PRETTY CLOSE TO
00Z ALG THE DE VLY. THERE IS A SOUTHWARD DP/DT TREND WITH THE
HRRR. WE HAVE NOT ARRIVED WITHIN THE HOURS OF CONCERN AND THE
LATEST 12Z NAM REMAINS DRY IN THE SRN PART OF OUR CWA. WE WILL SEE
IF THE TREND CONTINUES TO UP POPS WITH THE NEXT UPDATE. MORNING
12Z SOUNDINGS SHOWING PLENTY OF DRY AIR BELOW 700MB. THIS IS A
GOOD THING BECAUSE PRECIPITATION WOULD EVAP COOL TO SNOW. BASED ON
FCST SOUNDINGS (NO TEMPS ALF GET >2C) IN OUR CWA CONTINUES
PREVIOUS SHIFT`S THINKING IN THE SRN PART OF OUR CWA OF EITHER
SNOW OR SLEET AS A NON LIQUID PTYPE AND NOT FREEZING RAIN. THE 12Z
SOUNDINGS MAXT MACROS GIVE AROUND 40F FOR MAX TEMPS, BUT WITH
CLOUDS ARRIVING AND SNOW COVER, WE JUST DID A SLIGHT UPWARD
ADJUSTMENT BETWEEN CONTINUITY AMD THE SOUNDING SUGGESTIONS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED BETWEEN THE EAST COAST AND THE
APPALACHIANS. THERE HAS BEEN A FAIRLY LARGE TEMP SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS OF NE PA AND NW NJ WHERE THE HIGH IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND
WINDS WERE CALM. THERE IS ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST FOR A LIGHT NW WIND TO KEEP TEMPS STEADY IN THE UPPER
TEENS/LOWER 20S ACROSS THE DELMARVA, FAR SE PA AND S NJ. HOWEVER,
THESE AREAS HAVE A CHANCE TO COOL SEVERAL MORE DEGREES THRU DAYBREAK
AS THE HIGH BUILDS TOWARD THE COAST.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON WHILE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST TRACKS EASTWARD TOWARD
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES LATE IN THE DAY. AFTER A SUNNY START TO THE
MORNING, HIGH AND MID CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD
OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND LOWER/THICKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TIME OF ARRIVAL FOR THE
PRECIP LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES (MPO-RDG-MQS-ESN
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 4 PM AND 6 PM). NOTE THAT WE DID SPEED UP THE ONSET
AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER AS MODELS OFTEN ARE TOO SLOW WITH THE LEADING
WAA BAND. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT PTYPE STARTING OUT AS SNOW IN PA,
SN/IP IN NE MD/FAR N DELMARVA AND RA/IP TOWARD QUEEN ANNE`S AND
TALBOT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING.
THE INITIAL SHIELD OF PRECIP THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ENTERING OUR FAR
WESTERN ZONES BY THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SPREAD EASTWARD DURING
THE EARLY AND MID EVENING AS A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SWINGS
THRU. PTYPE FROM PHILLY AND POINTS NORTHWARD WILL BE ALL SNOW. A
WARM NOSE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO CAUSE SNOW TO MIX WITH SLEET IN THE
NORTHERN DELMARVA AND THE SOUTHERN MOST LOCATIONS IN NJ. WARMER SFC
TEMPS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MAINLY RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN DE AND
ADJACENT MD ZONES.

POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE HIGHEST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-78
CORRIDOR, WHERE SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE GREATEST AND LESS TRANSITORY
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS EVENT
ARE AROUND 1-2 FOR THESE AREAS. THERE IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY FOR
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ BUT NOT EXPECTING IT TO
BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WINTER WX ADVISORY.

THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER, SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT IN NORTHEAST
PA AND NORTHERN NJ.

WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING TEMPS TO FALL MUCH DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH
CLOUD COVER BLANKETING THE AREA AND A SOUTHWEST WIND AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE ARCTIC FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
BE MOVING AWAY. SCT SNOWS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS JUST AFTER 12Z
WILL REMAIN INTO THE MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. COLD AND WINDY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WITH TEMPS NOT CHANGING MUCH...REMAINING IN
THE LOW 30S NORTH AND MID 30S SOUTH. TEMPS MAY BEGIN TO FALL DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES. WINDS GUSTING TO
25 TO 35 MPH AT TIMES. WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN
POCONOS...TEENS ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF THE AREA AND LOW 20S
ELSEWHERE.

FRI NIGHT THRU SUN MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.
A DRY FCST BUT BITTER COLD TEMPS CONTINUE SAT WITH SOME MODERATION
SUNDAY. HIGHS SAT MOSTLY TEENS (NORTH) AND LOW 20S (SOUTH) WIND
CHILLS MOSTLY SINGLE DIGITS EARLY WITH SUB ZERO FAR NORTH. A WIND
CHILL FLAG MAY BE NEEDED. WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND SRN NJ.

SUN AFTERNOON THRU MONDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
MUCH OF THE AREA. AFTER MORE DISORGANIZED SOLUTIONS FOR THE SYSTEM
WITH THE 12Z WED MODELS...THE 00Z THU OP MODELS HAVE AGAIN SWUNG
BACK TO WETTER SOLUTIONS FOR OUR AREA. GFS...MOVES LOW PRESSURE FROM
THE CAROLINAS UP OFF THE DELMARVA THEN JUST EAST OF 40/70 MONDAY. A
DECENT SWATH OF MODERATE QPF (MOSTLY SNOW) TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. EC...WEAKER LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE CAROLINAS UP WELL EAST
OF THE 40/70 MARK WITH SLOWER DEEPENING. STILL SOME SNOW TO THE
AREA...BUT MUCH LIGHTER AND THE HIGHER TOTALS ARE ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND SRN NJ. CMC...MUCH CLOSER...STRONGER AND VERY WET.
AREAS S/E OF I-95 WOULD CHANGE TO RAIN MON WITH THE CMC SOLUTION.

THERE CAN BE A TENDENCY FOR A NORTHWARD TRACK BIAS WITH SYSTEMS WHEN
A STRONG HIGH IS NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE GFS/CMC MODELS
MAY BE DISPLAYING THIS...SO WE HAVE GONE WITH THE WPC NUMBERS FOR
NOW AND OFFERED THE HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THESE PERIOD. NOT
MUCH OF A CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FCST. WITH THIS WRITTEN...AN
INCREASING CHC FOR AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR SUN NIGHT MONDAY FOR THE
SRN/ERN PARTS OF THE CWA. WE WILL MAKE MENTION OF THIS IN THE HWO
AND ASK USERS TO CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MODELS HAVE YET TO LOCK ON TO A SOLUTION...BUT MAY BE
BEGINNING TO SETTLE...WITH AT LEAST MORE AGREEMENT THAN THIS TIME
LAST NIGHT.

MON NIGHT THRU WED...MORE HIGH PRESSURE WITH COLD TEMPS TUE AND A
BIT WARMER WED. A MOSTLY DRY FCST FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

18Z TAFS BRING MOST TERMINALS DOWN TO IFR THIS EVENING IN SNOW. VFR
BUT VERY WINDY ON FRIDAY.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON VFR WITH LOWERING CIGS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

THIS EVENING BECOMING IFR VSBY IN SNOW WITH MVFR CIGS FROM THE
PHL METRO AREA TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS NWWD. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
MIXED PCPN AT KMIV AND KACY. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATER IN THE EVENING.

OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. CONDITIONS COULD LOWER TO
MVFR AGAIN AS SNOW SHOWERS PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT.
HIGHER CONFIDENCE NORTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. THERE MIGHT
EVEN BE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL
BECOME WEST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS.

FRIDAY MORNING. VFR. A LIKELY STRATOCU DECK CIG AROUND 4K.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KNOTS. SOME HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUN MORNING...VFR EXPECTED. GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY
EVENING. SUN AFTERNOON THRU MONDAY...LOWERING CIGS. SNOW WITH
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE. SCA WAS ISSUED FOR
THE COASTAL ZONES, WHICH STARTS AT 11 PM AND CONTINUES THRU THE
OVERNIGHT. WAVES WILL BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT THRU SUN...GALE WARNINGS ISSUED. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE BACK
  TO SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY. FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED.
SUN NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
MON THRU TUE...SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS/SEAS SUBSIDE TUE AFTERNOON.
TUE NIGHT THRU WED...SCA SEAS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 291738
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1238 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW YORK TONIGHT AND THEN
ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. IT WILL SEND AN ARCTIC
FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
MOST OF THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE IS TO UP MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY. THE SNOW
COVER IS NOT HAVING AS MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPS RISING. THIS
ALSO OCCURRED YESTERDAY. THE MESOSCALE MODELS REMAIN PRETTY
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AS TO THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION PRETTY CLOSE TO
00Z ALG THE DE VLY. THERE IS A SOUTHWARD DP/DT TREND WITH THE
HRRR. WE HAVE NOT ARRIVED WITHIN THE HOURS OF CONCERN AND THE
LATEST 12Z NAM REMAINS DRY IN THE SRN PART OF OUR CWA. WE WILL SEE
IF THE TREND CONTINUES TO UP POPS WITH THE NEXT UPDATE. MORNING
12Z SOUNDINGS SHOWING PLENTY OF DRY AIR BELOW 700MB. THIS IS A
GOOD THING BECAUSE PRECIPITATION WOULD EVAP COOL TO SNOW. BASED ON
FCST SOUNDINGS (NO TEMPS ALF GET >2C) IN OUR CWA CONTINUES
PREVIOUS SHIFT`S THINKING IN THE SRN PART OF OUR CWA OF EITHER
SNOW OR SLEET AS A NON LIQUID PTYPE AND NOT FREEZING RAIN. THE 12Z
SOUNDINGS MAXT MACROS GIVE AROUND 40F FOR MAX TEMPS, BUT WITH
CLOUDS ARRIVING AND SNOW COVER, WE JUST DID A SLIGHT UPWARD
ADJUSTMENT BETWEEN CONTINUITY AMD THE SOUNDING SUGGESTIONS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED BETWEEN THE EAST COAST AND THE
APPALACHIANS. THERE HAS BEEN A FAIRLY LARGE TEMP SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS OF NE PA AND NW NJ WHERE THE HIGH IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND
WINDS WERE CALM. THERE IS ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST FOR A LIGHT NW WIND TO KEEP TEMPS STEADY IN THE UPPER
TEENS/LOWER 20S ACROSS THE DELMARVA, FAR SE PA AND S NJ. HOWEVER,
THESE AREAS HAVE A CHANCE TO COOL SEVERAL MORE DEGREES THRU DAYBREAK
AS THE HIGH BUILDS TOWARD THE COAST.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON WHILE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST TRACKS EASTWARD TOWARD
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES LATE IN THE DAY. AFTER A SUNNY START TO THE
MORNING, HIGH AND MID CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD
OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND LOWER/THICKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TIME OF ARRIVAL FOR THE
PRECIP LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES (MPO-RDG-MQS-ESN
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 4 PM AND 6 PM). NOTE THAT WE DID SPEED UP THE ONSET
AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER AS MODELS OFTEN ARE TOO SLOW WITH THE LEADING
WAA BAND. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT PTYPE STARTING OUT AS SNOW IN PA,
SN/IP IN NE MD/FAR N DELMARVA AND RA/IP TOWARD QUEEN ANNE`S AND
TALBOT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING.
THE INITIAL SHIELD OF PRECIP THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ENTERING OUR FAR
WESTERN ZONES BY THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SPREAD EASTWARD DURING
THE EARLY AND MID EVENING AS A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SWINGS
THRU. PTYPE FROM PHILLY AND POINTS NORTHWARD WILL BE ALL SNOW. A
WARM NOSE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO CAUSE SNOW TO MIX WITH SLEET IN THE
NORTHERN DELMARVA AND THE SOUTHERN MOST LOCATIONS IN NJ. WARMER SFC
TEMPS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MAINLY RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN DE AND
ADJACENT MD ZONES.

POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE HIGHEST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-78
CORRIDOR, WHERE SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE GREATEST AND LESS TRANSITORY
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS EVENT
ARE AROUND 1-2 FOR THESE AREAS. THERE IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY FOR
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ BUT NOT EXPECTING IT TO
BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WINTER WX ADVISORY.

THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER, SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT IN NORTHEAST
PA AND NORTHERN NJ.

WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING TEMPS TO FALL MUCH DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH
CLOUD COVER BLANKETING THE AREA AND A SOUTHWEST WIND AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE ARCTIC FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
BE MOVING AWAY. SCT SNOWS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS JUST AFTER 12Z
WILL REMAIN INTO THE MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. COLD AND WINDY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WITH TEMPS NOT CHANGING MUCH...REMAINING IN
THE LOW 30S NORTH AND MID 30S SOUTH. TEMPS MAY BEGIN TO FALL DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES. WINDS GUSTING TO
25 TO 35 MPH AT TIMES. WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN
POCONOS...TEENS ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF THE AREA AND LOW 20S
ELSEWHERE.

FRI NIGHT THRU SUN MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.
A DRY FCST BUT BITTER COLD TEMPS CONTINUE SAT WITH SOME MODERATION
SUNDAY. HIGHS SAT MOSTLY TEENS (NORTH) AND LOW 20S (SOUTH) WIND
CHILLS MOSTLY SINGLE DIGITS EARLY WITH SUB ZERO FAR NORTH. A WIND
CHILL FLAG MAY BE NEEDED. WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND SRN NJ.

SUN AFTERNOON THRU MONDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
MUCH OF THE AREA. AFTER MORE DISORGANIZED SOLUTIONS FOR THE SYSTEM
WITH THE 12Z WED MODELS...THE 00Z THU OP MODELS HAVE AGAIN SWUNG
BACK TO WETTER SOLUTIONS FOR OUR AREA. GFS...MOVES LOW PRESSURE FROM
THE CAROLINAS UP OFF THE DELMARVA THEN JUST EAST OF 40/70 MONDAY. A
DECENT SWATH OF MODERATE QPF (MOSTLY SNOW) TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. EC...WEAKER LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE CAROLINAS UP WELL EAST
OF THE 40/70 MARK WITH SLOWER DEEPENING. STILL SOME SNOW TO THE
AREA...BUT MUCH LIGHTER AND THE HIGHER TOTALS ARE ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND SRN NJ. CMC...MUCH CLOSER...STRONGER AND VERY WET.
AREAS S/E OF I-95 WOULD CHANGE TO RAIN MON WITH THE CMC SOLUTION.

THERE CAN BE A TENDENCY FOR A NORTHWARD TRACK BIAS WITH SYSTEMS WHEN
A STRONG HIGH IS NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE GFS/CMC MODELS
MAY BE DISPLAYING THIS...SO WE HAVE GONE WITH THE WPC NUMBERS FOR
NOW AND OFFERED THE HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THESE PERIOD. NOT
MUCH OF A CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FCST. WITH THIS WRITTEN...AN
INCREASING CHC FOR AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR SUN NIGHT MONDAY FOR THE
SRN/ERN PARTS OF THE CWA. WE WILL MAKE MENTION OF THIS IN THE HWO
AND ASK USERS TO CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MODELS HAVE YET TO LOCK ON TO A SOLUTION...BUT MAY BE
BEGINNING TO SETTLE...WITH AT LEAST MORE AGREEMENT THAN THIS TIME
LAST NIGHT.

MON NIGHT THRU WED...MORE HIGH PRESSURE WITH COLD TEMPS TUE AND A
BIT WARMER WED. A MOSTLY DRY FCST FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

18Z TAFS BRING MOST TERMINALS DOWN TO IFR THIS EVENING IN SNOW. VFR
BUT VERY WINDY ON FRIDAY.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON VFR WITH LOWERING CIGS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

THIS EVENING BECOMING IFR VSBY IN SNOW WITH MVFR CIGS FROM THE
PHL METRO AREA TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS NWWD. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
MIXED PCPN AT KMIV AND KACY. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATER IN THE EVENING.

OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. CONDITIONS COULD LOWER TO
MVFR AGAIN AS SNOW SHOWERS PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT.
HIGHER CONFIDENCE NORTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. THERE MIGHT
EVEN BE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL
BECOME WEST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS.

FRIDAY MORNING. VFR. A LIKELY STRATOCU DECK CIG AROUND 4K.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KNOTS. SOME HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUN MORNING...VFR EXPECTED. GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY
EVENING. SUN AFTERNOON THRU MONDAY...LOWERING CIGS. SNOW WITH
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE. SCA WAS ISSUED FOR
THE COASTAL ZONES, WHICH STARTS AT 11 PM AND CONTINUES THRU THE
OVERNIGHT. WAVES WILL BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT THRU SUN...GALE WARNINGS ISSUED. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE BACK
  TO SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY. FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED.
SUN NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
MON THRU TUE...SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS/SEAS SUBSIDE TUE AFTERNOON.
TUE NIGHT THRU WED...SCA SEAS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 291738
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1238 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW YORK TONIGHT AND THEN
ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. IT WILL SEND AN ARCTIC
FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
MOST OF THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE IS TO UP MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY. THE SNOW
COVER IS NOT HAVING AS MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPS RISING. THIS
ALSO OCCURRED YESTERDAY. THE MESOSCALE MODELS REMAIN PRETTY
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AS TO THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION PRETTY CLOSE TO
00Z ALG THE DE VLY. THERE IS A SOUTHWARD DP/DT TREND WITH THE
HRRR. WE HAVE NOT ARRIVED WITHIN THE HOURS OF CONCERN AND THE
LATEST 12Z NAM REMAINS DRY IN THE SRN PART OF OUR CWA. WE WILL SEE
IF THE TREND CONTINUES TO UP POPS WITH THE NEXT UPDATE. MORNING
12Z SOUNDINGS SHOWING PLENTY OF DRY AIR BELOW 700MB. THIS IS A
GOOD THING BECAUSE PRECIPITATION WOULD EVAP COOL TO SNOW. BASED ON
FCST SOUNDINGS (NO TEMPS ALF GET >2C) IN OUR CWA CONTINUES
PREVIOUS SHIFT`S THINKING IN THE SRN PART OF OUR CWA OF EITHER
SNOW OR SLEET AS A NON LIQUID PTYPE AND NOT FREEZING RAIN. THE 12Z
SOUNDINGS MAXT MACROS GIVE AROUND 40F FOR MAX TEMPS, BUT WITH
CLOUDS ARRIVING AND SNOW COVER, WE JUST DID A SLIGHT UPWARD
ADJUSTMENT BETWEEN CONTINUITY AMD THE SOUNDING SUGGESTIONS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED BETWEEN THE EAST COAST AND THE
APPALACHIANS. THERE HAS BEEN A FAIRLY LARGE TEMP SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS OF NE PA AND NW NJ WHERE THE HIGH IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND
WINDS WERE CALM. THERE IS ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST FOR A LIGHT NW WIND TO KEEP TEMPS STEADY IN THE UPPER
TEENS/LOWER 20S ACROSS THE DELMARVA, FAR SE PA AND S NJ. HOWEVER,
THESE AREAS HAVE A CHANCE TO COOL SEVERAL MORE DEGREES THRU DAYBREAK
AS THE HIGH BUILDS TOWARD THE COAST.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON WHILE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST TRACKS EASTWARD TOWARD
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES LATE IN THE DAY. AFTER A SUNNY START TO THE
MORNING, HIGH AND MID CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD
OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND LOWER/THICKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TIME OF ARRIVAL FOR THE
PRECIP LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES (MPO-RDG-MQS-ESN
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 4 PM AND 6 PM). NOTE THAT WE DID SPEED UP THE ONSET
AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER AS MODELS OFTEN ARE TOO SLOW WITH THE LEADING
WAA BAND. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT PTYPE STARTING OUT AS SNOW IN PA,
SN/IP IN NE MD/FAR N DELMARVA AND RA/IP TOWARD QUEEN ANNE`S AND
TALBOT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING.
THE INITIAL SHIELD OF PRECIP THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ENTERING OUR FAR
WESTERN ZONES BY THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SPREAD EASTWARD DURING
THE EARLY AND MID EVENING AS A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SWINGS
THRU. PTYPE FROM PHILLY AND POINTS NORTHWARD WILL BE ALL SNOW. A
WARM NOSE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO CAUSE SNOW TO MIX WITH SLEET IN THE
NORTHERN DELMARVA AND THE SOUTHERN MOST LOCATIONS IN NJ. WARMER SFC
TEMPS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MAINLY RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN DE AND
ADJACENT MD ZONES.

POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE HIGHEST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-78
CORRIDOR, WHERE SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE GREATEST AND LESS TRANSITORY
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS EVENT
ARE AROUND 1-2 FOR THESE AREAS. THERE IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY FOR
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ BUT NOT EXPECTING IT TO
BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WINTER WX ADVISORY.

THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER, SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT IN NORTHEAST
PA AND NORTHERN NJ.

WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING TEMPS TO FALL MUCH DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH
CLOUD COVER BLANKETING THE AREA AND A SOUTHWEST WIND AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE ARCTIC FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
BE MOVING AWAY. SCT SNOWS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS JUST AFTER 12Z
WILL REMAIN INTO THE MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. COLD AND WINDY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WITH TEMPS NOT CHANGING MUCH...REMAINING IN
THE LOW 30S NORTH AND MID 30S SOUTH. TEMPS MAY BEGIN TO FALL DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES. WINDS GUSTING TO
25 TO 35 MPH AT TIMES. WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN
POCONOS...TEENS ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF THE AREA AND LOW 20S
ELSEWHERE.

FRI NIGHT THRU SUN MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.
A DRY FCST BUT BITTER COLD TEMPS CONTINUE SAT WITH SOME MODERATION
SUNDAY. HIGHS SAT MOSTLY TEENS (NORTH) AND LOW 20S (SOUTH) WIND
CHILLS MOSTLY SINGLE DIGITS EARLY WITH SUB ZERO FAR NORTH. A WIND
CHILL FLAG MAY BE NEEDED. WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND SRN NJ.

SUN AFTERNOON THRU MONDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
MUCH OF THE AREA. AFTER MORE DISORGANIZED SOLUTIONS FOR THE SYSTEM
WITH THE 12Z WED MODELS...THE 00Z THU OP MODELS HAVE AGAIN SWUNG
BACK TO WETTER SOLUTIONS FOR OUR AREA. GFS...MOVES LOW PRESSURE FROM
THE CAROLINAS UP OFF THE DELMARVA THEN JUST EAST OF 40/70 MONDAY. A
DECENT SWATH OF MODERATE QPF (MOSTLY SNOW) TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. EC...WEAKER LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE CAROLINAS UP WELL EAST
OF THE 40/70 MARK WITH SLOWER DEEPENING. STILL SOME SNOW TO THE
AREA...BUT MUCH LIGHTER AND THE HIGHER TOTALS ARE ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND SRN NJ. CMC...MUCH CLOSER...STRONGER AND VERY WET.
AREAS S/E OF I-95 WOULD CHANGE TO RAIN MON WITH THE CMC SOLUTION.

THERE CAN BE A TENDENCY FOR A NORTHWARD TRACK BIAS WITH SYSTEMS WHEN
A STRONG HIGH IS NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE GFS/CMC MODELS
MAY BE DISPLAYING THIS...SO WE HAVE GONE WITH THE WPC NUMBERS FOR
NOW AND OFFERED THE HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THESE PERIOD. NOT
MUCH OF A CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FCST. WITH THIS WRITTEN...AN
INCREASING CHC FOR AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR SUN NIGHT MONDAY FOR THE
SRN/ERN PARTS OF THE CWA. WE WILL MAKE MENTION OF THIS IN THE HWO
AND ASK USERS TO CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MODELS HAVE YET TO LOCK ON TO A SOLUTION...BUT MAY BE
BEGINNING TO SETTLE...WITH AT LEAST MORE AGREEMENT THAN THIS TIME
LAST NIGHT.

MON NIGHT THRU WED...MORE HIGH PRESSURE WITH COLD TEMPS TUE AND A
BIT WARMER WED. A MOSTLY DRY FCST FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

18Z TAFS BRING MOST TERMINALS DOWN TO IFR THIS EVENING IN SNOW. VFR
BUT VERY WINDY ON FRIDAY.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON VFR WITH LOWERING CIGS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

THIS EVENING BECOMING IFR VSBY IN SNOW WITH MVFR CIGS FROM THE
PHL METRO AREA TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS NWWD. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
MIXED PCPN AT KMIV AND KACY. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATER IN THE EVENING.

OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. CONDITIONS COULD LOWER TO
MVFR AGAIN AS SNOW SHOWERS PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT.
HIGHER CONFIDENCE NORTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. THERE MIGHT
EVEN BE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL
BECOME WEST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS.

FRIDAY MORNING. VFR. A LIKELY STRATOCU DECK CIG AROUND 4K.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KNOTS. SOME HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUN MORNING...VFR EXPECTED. GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY
EVENING. SUN AFTERNOON THRU MONDAY...LOWERING CIGS. SNOW WITH
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE. SCA WAS ISSUED FOR
THE COASTAL ZONES, WHICH STARTS AT 11 PM AND CONTINUES THRU THE
OVERNIGHT. WAVES WILL BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT THRU SUN...GALE WARNINGS ISSUED. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE BACK
  TO SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY. FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED.
SUN NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
MON THRU TUE...SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS/SEAS SUBSIDE TUE AFTERNOON.
TUE NIGHT THRU WED...SCA SEAS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 291738
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1238 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW YORK TONIGHT AND THEN
ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. IT WILL SEND AN ARCTIC
FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
MOST OF THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE IS TO UP MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY. THE SNOW
COVER IS NOT HAVING AS MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPS RISING. THIS
ALSO OCCURRED YESTERDAY. THE MESOSCALE MODELS REMAIN PRETTY
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AS TO THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION PRETTY CLOSE TO
00Z ALG THE DE VLY. THERE IS A SOUTHWARD DP/DT TREND WITH THE
HRRR. WE HAVE NOT ARRIVED WITHIN THE HOURS OF CONCERN AND THE
LATEST 12Z NAM REMAINS DRY IN THE SRN PART OF OUR CWA. WE WILL SEE
IF THE TREND CONTINUES TO UP POPS WITH THE NEXT UPDATE. MORNING
12Z SOUNDINGS SHOWING PLENTY OF DRY AIR BELOW 700MB. THIS IS A
GOOD THING BECAUSE PRECIPITATION WOULD EVAP COOL TO SNOW. BASED ON
FCST SOUNDINGS (NO TEMPS ALF GET >2C) IN OUR CWA CONTINUES
PREVIOUS SHIFT`S THINKING IN THE SRN PART OF OUR CWA OF EITHER
SNOW OR SLEET AS A NON LIQUID PTYPE AND NOT FREEZING RAIN. THE 12Z
SOUNDINGS MAXT MACROS GIVE AROUND 40F FOR MAX TEMPS, BUT WITH
CLOUDS ARRIVING AND SNOW COVER, WE JUST DID A SLIGHT UPWARD
ADJUSTMENT BETWEEN CONTINUITY AMD THE SOUNDING SUGGESTIONS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED BETWEEN THE EAST COAST AND THE
APPALACHIANS. THERE HAS BEEN A FAIRLY LARGE TEMP SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS OF NE PA AND NW NJ WHERE THE HIGH IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND
WINDS WERE CALM. THERE IS ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST FOR A LIGHT NW WIND TO KEEP TEMPS STEADY IN THE UPPER
TEENS/LOWER 20S ACROSS THE DELMARVA, FAR SE PA AND S NJ. HOWEVER,
THESE AREAS HAVE A CHANCE TO COOL SEVERAL MORE DEGREES THRU DAYBREAK
AS THE HIGH BUILDS TOWARD THE COAST.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON WHILE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST TRACKS EASTWARD TOWARD
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES LATE IN THE DAY. AFTER A SUNNY START TO THE
MORNING, HIGH AND MID CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD
OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND LOWER/THICKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TIME OF ARRIVAL FOR THE
PRECIP LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES (MPO-RDG-MQS-ESN
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 4 PM AND 6 PM). NOTE THAT WE DID SPEED UP THE ONSET
AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER AS MODELS OFTEN ARE TOO SLOW WITH THE LEADING
WAA BAND. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT PTYPE STARTING OUT AS SNOW IN PA,
SN/IP IN NE MD/FAR N DELMARVA AND RA/IP TOWARD QUEEN ANNE`S AND
TALBOT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING.
THE INITIAL SHIELD OF PRECIP THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ENTERING OUR FAR
WESTERN ZONES BY THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SPREAD EASTWARD DURING
THE EARLY AND MID EVENING AS A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SWINGS
THRU. PTYPE FROM PHILLY AND POINTS NORTHWARD WILL BE ALL SNOW. A
WARM NOSE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO CAUSE SNOW TO MIX WITH SLEET IN THE
NORTHERN DELMARVA AND THE SOUTHERN MOST LOCATIONS IN NJ. WARMER SFC
TEMPS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MAINLY RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN DE AND
ADJACENT MD ZONES.

POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE HIGHEST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-78
CORRIDOR, WHERE SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE GREATEST AND LESS TRANSITORY
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS EVENT
ARE AROUND 1-2 FOR THESE AREAS. THERE IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY FOR
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ BUT NOT EXPECTING IT TO
BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WINTER WX ADVISORY.

THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER, SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT IN NORTHEAST
PA AND NORTHERN NJ.

WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING TEMPS TO FALL MUCH DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH
CLOUD COVER BLANKETING THE AREA AND A SOUTHWEST WIND AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE ARCTIC FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
BE MOVING AWAY. SCT SNOWS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS JUST AFTER 12Z
WILL REMAIN INTO THE MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. COLD AND WINDY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WITH TEMPS NOT CHANGING MUCH...REMAINING IN
THE LOW 30S NORTH AND MID 30S SOUTH. TEMPS MAY BEGIN TO FALL DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES. WINDS GUSTING TO
25 TO 35 MPH AT TIMES. WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN
POCONOS...TEENS ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF THE AREA AND LOW 20S
ELSEWHERE.

FRI NIGHT THRU SUN MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.
A DRY FCST BUT BITTER COLD TEMPS CONTINUE SAT WITH SOME MODERATION
SUNDAY. HIGHS SAT MOSTLY TEENS (NORTH) AND LOW 20S (SOUTH) WIND
CHILLS MOSTLY SINGLE DIGITS EARLY WITH SUB ZERO FAR NORTH. A WIND
CHILL FLAG MAY BE NEEDED. WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND SRN NJ.

SUN AFTERNOON THRU MONDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
MUCH OF THE AREA. AFTER MORE DISORGANIZED SOLUTIONS FOR THE SYSTEM
WITH THE 12Z WED MODELS...THE 00Z THU OP MODELS HAVE AGAIN SWUNG
BACK TO WETTER SOLUTIONS FOR OUR AREA. GFS...MOVES LOW PRESSURE FROM
THE CAROLINAS UP OFF THE DELMARVA THEN JUST EAST OF 40/70 MONDAY. A
DECENT SWATH OF MODERATE QPF (MOSTLY SNOW) TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. EC...WEAKER LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE CAROLINAS UP WELL EAST
OF THE 40/70 MARK WITH SLOWER DEEPENING. STILL SOME SNOW TO THE
AREA...BUT MUCH LIGHTER AND THE HIGHER TOTALS ARE ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND SRN NJ. CMC...MUCH CLOSER...STRONGER AND VERY WET.
AREAS S/E OF I-95 WOULD CHANGE TO RAIN MON WITH THE CMC SOLUTION.

THERE CAN BE A TENDENCY FOR A NORTHWARD TRACK BIAS WITH SYSTEMS WHEN
A STRONG HIGH IS NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE GFS/CMC MODELS
MAY BE DISPLAYING THIS...SO WE HAVE GONE WITH THE WPC NUMBERS FOR
NOW AND OFFERED THE HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THESE PERIOD. NOT
MUCH OF A CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FCST. WITH THIS WRITTEN...AN
INCREASING CHC FOR AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR SUN NIGHT MONDAY FOR THE
SRN/ERN PARTS OF THE CWA. WE WILL MAKE MENTION OF THIS IN THE HWO
AND ASK USERS TO CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MODELS HAVE YET TO LOCK ON TO A SOLUTION...BUT MAY BE
BEGINNING TO SETTLE...WITH AT LEAST MORE AGREEMENT THAN THIS TIME
LAST NIGHT.

MON NIGHT THRU WED...MORE HIGH PRESSURE WITH COLD TEMPS TUE AND A
BIT WARMER WED. A MOSTLY DRY FCST FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

18Z TAFS BRING MOST TERMINALS DOWN TO IFR THIS EVENING IN SNOW. VFR
BUT VERY WINDY ON FRIDAY.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON VFR WITH LOWERING CIGS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

THIS EVENING BECOMING IFR VSBY IN SNOW WITH MVFR CIGS FROM THE
PHL METRO AREA TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS NWWD. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
MIXED PCPN AT KMIV AND KACY. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATER IN THE EVENING.

OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. CONDITIONS COULD LOWER TO
MVFR AGAIN AS SNOW SHOWERS PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT.
HIGHER CONFIDENCE NORTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. THERE MIGHT
EVEN BE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL
BECOME WEST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS.

FRIDAY MORNING. VFR. A LIKELY STRATOCU DECK CIG AROUND 4K.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KNOTS. SOME HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUN MORNING...VFR EXPECTED. GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY
EVENING. SUN AFTERNOON THRU MONDAY...LOWERING CIGS. SNOW WITH
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE. SCA WAS ISSUED FOR
THE COASTAL ZONES, WHICH STARTS AT 11 PM AND CONTINUES THRU THE
OVERNIGHT. WAVES WILL BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT THRU SUN...GALE WARNINGS ISSUED. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE BACK
  TO SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY. FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED.
SUN NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
MON THRU TUE...SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS/SEAS SUBSIDE TUE AFTERNOON.
TUE NIGHT THRU WED...SCA SEAS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA





  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291607
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1107 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CROSSING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE UPPER OHIO REGION TODAY AND SNOW EARLY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PCPN CONTS TO ADVANCE INTO THE RGN WITH AN APCHG SHRTWV. AIR AND
ROAD TEMPS RMN BLO FRZG ACRS WRN PA...AND WERE HOVERING NR FRZG
ACRS OH. MGW HAS RISEN ABV FRZG BUT GIVEN LOW DEW PTS AND A COLD
START SOME FRZG RAIN WL RMN PSBL INTO ERLY AFTN. ONCE WET BULBING
ENDS EXP SOME TEWMP RECOVERY IN WRM ADVCTN. SOME SNW COULD MIX IN
N OF I 80 AND IN THE RIDGES ESP BY LT AFTN. NUDGED TEMPS TO THE
LATEST LAMP NMBRS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CDFNT WL CROSS THE RGN THIS EVE WITH ANY PCPN CHG TO SNW. A
CROSSING UPR TROF WL KEEP SNW SHWR CHCS IN THE RGN THRU FRI. GOOD
UPSLOPE FLOW WL ALLOW FOR ADVY LVL SNW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
RIDGES...AND SOME LTD CONNECTION OFF LK HURON COULD ENHANCE
ACCUMULATIONS ACRS NW PA. WL CONT THE WINTER WEA ADVYS AS IS ATTM.

INVERSION LVLS LWR AND BLDG HIGH PRES SHOULD END ANY SNW SHWRS FRI
BY FRI EVE. DRY WEA SHOULD CONT SAT UNDER THE HIGH. WELL BELOW
SEASONAL AVG TEMPS WL CONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH LEVELS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PARTICULARLY WITH THE
SYSTEM THAT COULD AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME
FRAME. FOR NOW...CONSISTENCY WILL BE THE NAME OF THE GAME UNTIL
THE MODELS PROVIDE A BETTER PICTURE. COLD PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONDITION DETERIORATION IS UNDERWAY AND DEGRADATIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY AS MIXED PCPN SPREADS OVR UPR OH TERMINALS
AND CHANGES TO SNOW WITH CDFNT PASSAGE THIS EVE. IFR CAN BE
EXPECTED IN SNOW SHWRS THIS EVE...AND IN WIDESPREAD STRATUS WHICH
WL ACCOMPANY THE COLD SURGE OVR THE REGION.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
IMPROVEMENTS CAN BE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES BLDS LTR ON
SATURDAY...HOWEVER...SNOW AND RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH SUNDAY
LOW PRES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     015-016-023-074-076.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ013-014-020>022-029-031-073-075.
WV...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ001>004-012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ023-041.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ021-022.

&&

$$

07/15







000
FXUS61 KLWX 291444
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
944 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WINDY AND COLD
CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA SATURDAY...BUT LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE WINTRY MIX EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE OUTLOOK AREA DROPPED INTO THE
TEENS FOR MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT CAUSING SFC TEMPS TO REACH THE
TEENS AND 20S. THIS WILL PLAY A ROLE TODAY AS PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION IN TIME FOR THE EVENING RUSH
HOUR.

A 40KT 925MB LLJ AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS STILL WEST OF
THE APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING. THIS WILL MOVE EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND TEMPS AT 925MB WILL BECOME +32 F.
850MB TEMPS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BECOME +32 F TODAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH WARM AIR OVER COLD AIR/SURFACES.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC WILL ALLOW TEMPS AND DEWPTS TO RISE TODAY.
SNOW PACK ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC WILL SLOW TEMPS FROM RISING AS
FAST AS CENTRAL VA AND SOUTHERN MD. SFC TEMPS WILL BE A CONCERN
TODAY AS THE GROUND IS FROZEN IN MANY PLACES. CLOUD COVER MOVING
OVERHEAD WILL ALSO SLOW TEMPS FROM RISING TODAY AS WELL. THAT BEING
SAID...TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S NEAR THE MD/PA BORDER TO
THE LOW 40S FROM DCA-CHO-NHK. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP SCOUR OUT
VALLEYS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS WELL AND SHD-WOO-W99 SHOULD RISE
INTO THE UPPER 30S. A CAVEAT IS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON THE BLUE
RIDGE AND WESTWARD. ZR IS POSSIBLE AS TEMPS MAY STAY BELOW FREEZING.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR AND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

A WINTER WX ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE NRN OUTLOOK AREA. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED TODAY. DCA IS ALREADY AT 31 DEGREES BUT SURROUNDING
SUBURBS ARE IN THE 20S. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PTYPE NEAR
THE I-95 CORRIDOR DURING THE EVENING RUSH HOUR. AT THIS TIME...TEMPS
ARE FCST TO GO ABOVE FREEZING EAST OF THE WINTER WX ADVISORY. AS
GUIDANCE COMES IN THIS MORNING DECISIONS WILL BE MADE IF WE NEED TO
EXTEND THE ADVISORY FURTHER EAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE AWAY FROM MOST AREAS THIS EVENING AND THE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OVERNIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIDGES. UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE MIDWEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE QUITE STRONG...RESULTING IN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AND A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN COLD CONDITIONS. IN FACT...TEMPS MAY
HOLD STEADY OR EVEN FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS
TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S IN SOUTHERN MARYLAND. MORE UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL NOON...BUT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS ANOTHER POTENT UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS
THROUGH THE AREA. MOST AREAS WILL NOT SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW...BUT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO COMBINE WITH STRONG COLD
ADVECTION FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS. THIS COULD LEAVE A QUICK COATING IN SPOTS AND WITH SUDDEN
CHANGES IN VISIBILITY THAT COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
TRAVEL...ALTHOUGH IT WOULD BE LOCALIZED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND...EASTERN
WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA.

COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
AND EAST. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ALLEGHENY FRONT FRI
EVENING EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THE NW FLOW INJECTS MUCH DRIER AIR.
MAIN CONCERN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS...ALMOST 10-15 DEGREES BELOW. COMBINING WITH NW WINDS WITH
GUSTS 20-30 KTS...AND IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS 30-35 KTS...WIND CHILLS
FORECASTED TO DROP TO AROUND -10 DEGREES CELSIUS POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS...NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE...AND
POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY POTENTIAL IN THE HWO...MAINLY FOR
THE FAR WESTERN AREAS. USED A BLEND OF ADJMETBC/MOSBC WHICH HAS BEEN
TRENDING WELL FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CENTER OF THE HIGH SLIPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE SE US SAT WHILE A NEAR
ZONAL FLOW SETS UP DURING THE DAY...AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS SAT
NIGHT-SUN MORNING. THE PATTERN KEEPS THE AREA DRY THOUGH COLD THRU
SAT WITH TEMPS STILL RUNNING BELOW NORMAL. WARMING TREND BY SAT
NIGHT AS WINDS BACK TO SW FLOW...WITH 850MB TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND
-5 DEGREES CELSIUS.

NEXT CHC FOR PCPN SUN-MON WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER GOM AND
RIDING A NEAR STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. SOME QUESTION REMAINS
ON PCPN TIMING AND INTENSITY...AND AS SUCH THEN P-TYPE. GFS/CMC
STRONGER SOLUTIONS WITH THE LOW DEVELOPMENT AS UPPER LVL TROUGH DIGS
DEEPER SOUTH...AND PICKS UP SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING THE SOUTHERN
STREAM...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS MORE OF A SEPARATION. WENT WITH
LIKELY POPS BY SUN AFTN OVER WESTERN AREAS TO HIGHLIGHT THE HIGHER
CONFIDENCE OF PCPN...THEN SPREADING THE LIKELY POPS TO THE EAST FOR
SUN NIGHT-MON. CONCERNING PCPN TYPE...MAINTAINED MAINLY A SNOW
EVENT...WITH PSBL TRANSITION TO RAIN DURING THE AFTN SUN OVER JUST
THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA. HIGHER CONFIDENCE ANY PCPN ON
MONDAY REMAINS ALL SNOW WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING -10 TO -15 DEGREES
CELSIUS DURING THE DAY. AS THE LOW BECOMES CLEARER ON SUBSEQUENT
SHIFTS...WILL BE ABLE TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON P-TYPE AND AMTS AT
THE ONSET.

PCPN CLEARS THE AREA BY TUES MORNING...WITH SFC HIGH BRINGING
ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRY AND COLD TEMPS. TRENDED COLDER WITH HIGHS TUES
AND LOWS TUES NIGHT AS A RESULT. MODEL DIVERGENCE BY MID WEEK ON THE
HANDLING OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH PCPN PSBL ONCE AGAIN
LATE WED-THURS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TONIGHT. STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH A COUPLE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 35 TO 40 KNOTS FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SAT NIGHT...VFR LIKELY...PSBL SUB-VFR LATE SAT NIGHT.
GUSTY NW WINDS 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS FRI NIGHT...BCMG LESS
THAN 10 KTS BY SAT AFTN. PSBL LLWS FRI NIGHT WITH 2KFT WINDS 40-50
KTS.

SUN-MON...SUB-VFR LIKELY WITH PCPN...PSBL SUB-IFR SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING. WINTRY MIX PSBL. INCREASING NW WINDS MON...GUSTS TO 20 KTS.

MON NIGHT-TUES NIGHT...VFR LIKELY.

WED-WED NIGHT...SUB-VFR PSBL WITH PCPN.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TODAY. THE COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH TONIGHT AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. A GALE WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS FRIDAY.

GALES LIKELY AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY NIGHT ON CHESAPEAKE
BAY...AND POSSIBLY ON THE UPPER POTOMAC. OCNL GALES MAY LINGER TILL
DAYBREAK SAT ON THE BAY. WINDS SUBSIDE SAT BUT REMAINING 15-20 KTS
DURING THE DAY. WINDS DIMINISH SAT NIGHT...AND REMAIN SUB-SCA
THROUGH SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW SUN
NIGHT-MON...SCA CONDITIONS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE AGAIN. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST
     FRIDAY FOR MDZ501.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR MDZ003-502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR MDZ004-005-503-505.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     FRIDAY FOR VAZ503.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ028-031.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ505.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST
     FRIDAY FOR WVZ503.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     FRIDAY FOR WVZ501-505.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR WVZ050>053-504.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...BJL/SEARS
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...BJL/SEARS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 291444
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
944 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WINDY AND COLD
CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA SATURDAY...BUT LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE WINTRY MIX EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE OUTLOOK AREA DROPPED INTO THE
TEENS FOR MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT CAUSING SFC TEMPS TO REACH THE
TEENS AND 20S. THIS WILL PLAY A ROLE TODAY AS PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION IN TIME FOR THE EVENING RUSH
HOUR.

A 40KT 925MB LLJ AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS STILL WEST OF
THE APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING. THIS WILL MOVE EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND TEMPS AT 925MB WILL BECOME +32 F.
850MB TEMPS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BECOME +32 F TODAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH WARM AIR OVER COLD AIR/SURFACES.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC WILL ALLOW TEMPS AND DEWPTS TO RISE TODAY.
SNOW PACK ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC WILL SLOW TEMPS FROM RISING AS
FAST AS CENTRAL VA AND SOUTHERN MD. SFC TEMPS WILL BE A CONCERN
TODAY AS THE GROUND IS FROZEN IN MANY PLACES. CLOUD COVER MOVING
OVERHEAD WILL ALSO SLOW TEMPS FROM RISING TODAY AS WELL. THAT BEING
SAID...TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S NEAR THE MD/PA BORDER TO
THE LOW 40S FROM DCA-CHO-NHK. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP SCOUR OUT
VALLEYS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS WELL AND SHD-WOO-W99 SHOULD RISE
INTO THE UPPER 30S. A CAVEAT IS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON THE BLUE
RIDGE AND WESTWARD. ZR IS POSSIBLE AS TEMPS MAY STAY BELOW FREEZING.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR AND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

A WINTER WX ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE NRN OUTLOOK AREA. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED TODAY. DCA IS ALREADY AT 31 DEGREES BUT SURROUNDING
SUBURBS ARE IN THE 20S. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PTYPE NEAR
THE I-95 CORRIDOR DURING THE EVENING RUSH HOUR. AT THIS TIME...TEMPS
ARE FCST TO GO ABOVE FREEZING EAST OF THE WINTER WX ADVISORY. AS
GUIDANCE COMES IN THIS MORNING DECISIONS WILL BE MADE IF WE NEED TO
EXTEND THE ADVISORY FURTHER EAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE AWAY FROM MOST AREAS THIS EVENING AND THE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OVERNIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIDGES. UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE MIDWEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE QUITE STRONG...RESULTING IN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AND A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN COLD CONDITIONS. IN FACT...TEMPS MAY
HOLD STEADY OR EVEN FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS
TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S IN SOUTHERN MARYLAND. MORE UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL NOON...BUT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS ANOTHER POTENT UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS
THROUGH THE AREA. MOST AREAS WILL NOT SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW...BUT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO COMBINE WITH STRONG COLD
ADVECTION FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS. THIS COULD LEAVE A QUICK COATING IN SPOTS AND WITH SUDDEN
CHANGES IN VISIBILITY THAT COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
TRAVEL...ALTHOUGH IT WOULD BE LOCALIZED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND...EASTERN
WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA.

COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
AND EAST. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ALLEGHENY FRONT FRI
EVENING EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THE NW FLOW INJECTS MUCH DRIER AIR.
MAIN CONCERN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS...ALMOST 10-15 DEGREES BELOW. COMBINING WITH NW WINDS WITH
GUSTS 20-30 KTS...AND IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS 30-35 KTS...WIND CHILLS
FORECASTED TO DROP TO AROUND -10 DEGREES CELSIUS POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS...NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE...AND
POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY POTENTIAL IN THE HWO...MAINLY FOR
THE FAR WESTERN AREAS. USED A BLEND OF ADJMETBC/MOSBC WHICH HAS BEEN
TRENDING WELL FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CENTER OF THE HIGH SLIPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE SE US SAT WHILE A NEAR
ZONAL FLOW SETS UP DURING THE DAY...AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS SAT
NIGHT-SUN MORNING. THE PATTERN KEEPS THE AREA DRY THOUGH COLD THRU
SAT WITH TEMPS STILL RUNNING BELOW NORMAL. WARMING TREND BY SAT
NIGHT AS WINDS BACK TO SW FLOW...WITH 850MB TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND
-5 DEGREES CELSIUS.

NEXT CHC FOR PCPN SUN-MON WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER GOM AND
RIDING A NEAR STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. SOME QUESTION REMAINS
ON PCPN TIMING AND INTENSITY...AND AS SUCH THEN P-TYPE. GFS/CMC
STRONGER SOLUTIONS WITH THE LOW DEVELOPMENT AS UPPER LVL TROUGH DIGS
DEEPER SOUTH...AND PICKS UP SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING THE SOUTHERN
STREAM...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS MORE OF A SEPARATION. WENT WITH
LIKELY POPS BY SUN AFTN OVER WESTERN AREAS TO HIGHLIGHT THE HIGHER
CONFIDENCE OF PCPN...THEN SPREADING THE LIKELY POPS TO THE EAST FOR
SUN NIGHT-MON. CONCERNING PCPN TYPE...MAINTAINED MAINLY A SNOW
EVENT...WITH PSBL TRANSITION TO RAIN DURING THE AFTN SUN OVER JUST
THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA. HIGHER CONFIDENCE ANY PCPN ON
MONDAY REMAINS ALL SNOW WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING -10 TO -15 DEGREES
CELSIUS DURING THE DAY. AS THE LOW BECOMES CLEARER ON SUBSEQUENT
SHIFTS...WILL BE ABLE TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON P-TYPE AND AMTS AT
THE ONSET.

PCPN CLEARS THE AREA BY TUES MORNING...WITH SFC HIGH BRINGING
ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRY AND COLD TEMPS. TRENDED COLDER WITH HIGHS TUES
AND LOWS TUES NIGHT AS A RESULT. MODEL DIVERGENCE BY MID WEEK ON THE
HANDLING OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH PCPN PSBL ONCE AGAIN
LATE WED-THURS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TONIGHT. STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH A COUPLE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 35 TO 40 KNOTS FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SAT NIGHT...VFR LIKELY...PSBL SUB-VFR LATE SAT NIGHT.
GUSTY NW WINDS 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS FRI NIGHT...BCMG LESS
THAN 10 KTS BY SAT AFTN. PSBL LLWS FRI NIGHT WITH 2KFT WINDS 40-50
KTS.

SUN-MON...SUB-VFR LIKELY WITH PCPN...PSBL SUB-IFR SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING. WINTRY MIX PSBL. INCREASING NW WINDS MON...GUSTS TO 20 KTS.

MON NIGHT-TUES NIGHT...VFR LIKELY.

WED-WED NIGHT...SUB-VFR PSBL WITH PCPN.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TODAY. THE COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH TONIGHT AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. A GALE WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS FRIDAY.

GALES LIKELY AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY NIGHT ON CHESAPEAKE
BAY...AND POSSIBLY ON THE UPPER POTOMAC. OCNL GALES MAY LINGER TILL
DAYBREAK SAT ON THE BAY. WINDS SUBSIDE SAT BUT REMAINING 15-20 KTS
DURING THE DAY. WINDS DIMINISH SAT NIGHT...AND REMAIN SUB-SCA
THROUGH SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW SUN
NIGHT-MON...SCA CONDITIONS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE AGAIN. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST
     FRIDAY FOR MDZ501.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR MDZ003-502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR MDZ004-005-503-505.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     FRIDAY FOR VAZ503.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ028-031.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ505.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST
     FRIDAY FOR WVZ503.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     FRIDAY FOR WVZ501-505.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR WVZ050>053-504.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...BJL/SEARS
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...BJL/SEARS







000
FXUS61 KPHI 291441
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
941 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW YORK TONIGHT AND THEN
ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. IT WILL SEND AN ARCTIC
FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
MOST OF THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO BIG CHANGES WITH THIS ESTF UPDATE. THE MESOSCALE MODELS REMAIN
PRETTY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AS TO THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION PRETTY
CLOSE TO 00Z ALG THE DE VLY. THERE IS A SOUTHWARD DP/DT TREND WITH
THE HRRR. WE HAVE NOT ARRIVED WITHIN THE HOURS OF CONCERN AND THE
LATEST 12Z NAM REMAINS DRY IN THE SRN PART OF OUR CWA. WE WILL SEE
IF THE TREND CONTINUES TO UP POPS WITH THE NEXT UPDATE. MORNING
12Z SOUNDINGS SHOWING PLENTY OF DRY AIR BELOW 700MB. THIS IS A
GOOD THING BECAUSE PRECIPITATION WOULD EVAP COOL TO SNOW. BASED ON
FCST SOUNDINGS (NO TEMPS ALF GET >2C) IN OUR CWA CONTINUES
PREVIOUS SHIFT`S THINKING IN THE SRN PART OF OUR CWA OF EITHER
SNOW OR SLEET AS A NON LIQUID PTYPE AND NOT FREEZING RAIN. THE
12Z SOUNDINGS MAXT MACROS GIVE AROUND 40F FOR MAX TEMPS, BUT WITH
CLOUDS ARRIVING AND SNOW COVER, WE JUST DID A SLIGHT UPWARD NUDGE.
MUCH CLOSER TO CONTINUITY THAN THE SOUNDING SUGGESTIONS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED BETWEEN THE EAST COAST AND THE
APPALACHIANS. THERE HAS BEEN A FAIRLY LARGE TEMP SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS OF NE PA AND NW NJ WHERE THE HIGH IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND
WINDS WERE CALM. THERE IS ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST FOR A LIGHT NW WIND TO KEEP TEMPS STEADY IN THE UPPER
TEENS/LOWER 20S ACROSS THE DELMARVA, FAR SE PA AND S NJ. HOWEVER,
THESE AREAS HAVE A CHANCE TO COOL SEVERAL MORE DEGREES THRU DAYBREAK
AS THE HIGH BUILDS TOWARD THE COAST.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON WHILE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST TRACKS EASTWARD TOWARD
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES LATE IN THE DAY. AFTER A SUNNY START TO THE
MORNING, HIGH AND MID CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD
OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND LOWER/THICKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TIME OF ARRIVAL FOR THE
PRECIP LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES (MPO-RDG-MQS-ESN
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 4 PM AND 6 PM). NOTE THAT WE DID SPEED UP THE ONSET
AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER AS MODELS OFTEN ARE TOO SLOW WITH THE LEADING
WAA BAND. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT PTYPE STARTING OUT AS SNOW IN PA,
SN/IP IN NE MD/FAR N DELMARVA AND RA/IP TOWARD QUEEN ANNE`S AND
TALBOT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING.
THE INITIAL SHIELD OF PRECIP THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ENTERING OUR FAR
WESTERN ZONES BY THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SPREAD EASTWARD DURING
THE EARLY AND MID EVENING AS A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SWINGS
THRU. PTYPE FROM PHILLY AND POINTS NORTHWARD WILL BE ALL SNOW. A
WARM NOSE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO CAUSE SNOW TO MIX WITH SLEET IN THE
NORTHERN DELMARVA AND THE SOUTHERN MOST LOCATIONS IN NJ. WARMER SFC
TEMPS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MAINLY RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN DE AND
ADJACENT MD ZONES.

POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE HIGHEST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-78
CORRIDOR, WHERE SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE GREATEST AND LESS TRANSITORY
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS EVENT
ARE AROUND 1-2 FOR THESE AREAS. THERE IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY FOR
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ BUT NOT EXPECTING IT TO
BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WINTER WX ADVISORY.

THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER, SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT IN NORTHEAST
PA AND NORTHERN NJ.

WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING TEMPS TO FALL MUCH DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH
CLOUD COVER BLANKETING THE AREA AND A SOUTHWEST WIND AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE ARCTIC FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
BE MOVING AWAY. SCT SNOWS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS JUST AFTER 12Z
WILL REMAIN INTO THE MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. COLD AND WINDY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WITH TEMPS NOT CHANGING MUCH...REMAINING IN
THE LOW 30S NORTH AND MID 30S SOUTH. TEMPS MAY BEGIN TO FALL DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES. WINDS GUSTING TO
25 TO 35 MPH AT TIMES. WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN
POCONOS...TEENS ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF THE AREA AND LOW 20S
ELSEWHERE.

FRI NIGHT THRU SUN MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.
A DRY FCST BUT BITTER COLD TEMPS CONTINUE SAT WITH SOME MODERATION
SUNDAY. HIGHS SAT MOSTLY TEENS (NORTH) AND LOW 20S (SOUTH) WIND
CHILLS MOSTLY SINGLE DIGITS EARLY WITH SUB ZERO FAR NORTH. A WIND
CHILL FLAG MAY BE NEEDED. WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND SRN NJ.

SUN AFTERNOON THRU MONDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
MUCH OF THE AREA. AFTER MORE DISORGANIZED SOLUTIONS FOR THE SYSTEM
WITH THE 12Z WED MODELS...THE 00Z THU OP MODELS HAVE AGAIN SWUNG
BACK TO WETTER SOLUTIONS FOR OUR AREA. GFS...MOVES LOW PRESSURE FROM
THE CAROLINAS UP OFF THE DELMARVA THEN JUST EAST OF 40/70 MONDAY. A
DECENT SWATH OF MODERATE QPF (MOSTLY SNOW) TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. EC...WEAKER LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE CAROLINAS UP WELL EAST
OF THE 40/70 MARK WITH SLOWER DEEPENING. STILL SOME SNOW TO THE
AREA...BUT MUCH LIGHTER AND THE HIGHER TOTALS ARE ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND SRN NJ. CMC...MUCH CLOSER...STRONGER AND VERY WET.
AREAS S/E OF I-95 WOULD CHANGE TO RAIN MON WITH THE CMC SOLUTION.

THERE CAN BE A TENDENCY FOR A NORTHWARD TRACK BIAS WITH SYSTEMS WHEN
A STRONG HIGH IS NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE GFS/CMC MODELS
MAY BE DISPLAYING THIS...SO WE HAVE GONE WITH THE WPC NUMBERS FOR
NOW AND OFFERED THE HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THESE PERIOD. NOT
MUCH OF A CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FCST. WITH THIS WRITTEN...AN
INCREASING CHC FOR AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR SUN NIGHT MONDAY FOR THE
SRN/ERN PARTS OF THE CWA. WE WILL MAKE MENTION OF THIS IN THE HWO
AND ASK USERS TO CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MODELS HAVE YET TO LOCK ON TO A SOLUTION...BUT MAY BE
BEGINNING TO SETTLE...WITH AT LEAST MORE AGREEMENT THAN THIS TIME
LAST NIGHT.

MON NIGHT THRU WED...MORE HIGH PRESSURE WITH COLD TEMPS TUE AND A
BIT WARMER WED. A MOSTLY DRY FCST FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR THIS MRNG AND FIRST PART OF THE AFTN. EXPECT A BAND OF SNOW TO
REACH THE WRN TERMINALS LATE IN THE DAY (RDG AROUND 22Z AND ABE
23Z). VSBYS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR QUICKLY AFTER ONSET OF SNOW.
SNOW MOVES EWD TOWARD THE I-95 TERMINALS BETWEEN 00Z-02Z. THIS
WILL BE A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM, SO ONLY EXPECTING A BRIEF, 3-6 HOUR,
PERIOD OF SNOW. SLEET MAY MIX IN AT ILG/MIV/ACY BUT CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIP MAKING IT TO ACY IS RELATIVELY LOW FOR THIS CLOSE TO THE
EVENT. SNOW MAY LINGER OUT TOWARD ABE-RDG AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING, BECOMING SLY THIS AFTN/EVE AND
SWLY OVERNIGHT 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THRU SUN MORNING...VFR EXPECTED. GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY.
SUN AFTERNOON THRU MONDAY...LOWERING CIGS. SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE. SCA WAS ISSUED FOR
THE COASTAL ZONES, WHICH STARTS AT 11 PM AND CONTINUES THRU THE
OVERNIGHT. WAVES WILL BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT THRU SUN...GALE WARNINGS ISSUED. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE BACK
  TO SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY. FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED.
SUN NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
MON THRU TUE...SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS/SEAS SUBSIDE TUE AFTERNOON.
TUE NIGHT THRU WED...SCA SEAS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 291441
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
941 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW YORK TONIGHT AND THEN
ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. IT WILL SEND AN ARCTIC
FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
MOST OF THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO BIG CHANGES WITH THIS ESTF UPDATE. THE MESOSCALE MODELS REMAIN
PRETTY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AS TO THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION PRETTY
CLOSE TO 00Z ALG THE DE VLY. THERE IS A SOUTHWARD DP/DT TREND WITH
THE HRRR. WE HAVE NOT ARRIVED WITHIN THE HOURS OF CONCERN AND THE
LATEST 12Z NAM REMAINS DRY IN THE SRN PART OF OUR CWA. WE WILL SEE
IF THE TREND CONTINUES TO UP POPS WITH THE NEXT UPDATE. MORNING
12Z SOUNDINGS SHOWING PLENTY OF DRY AIR BELOW 700MB. THIS IS A
GOOD THING BECAUSE PRECIPITATION WOULD EVAP COOL TO SNOW. BASED ON
FCST SOUNDINGS (NO TEMPS ALF GET >2C) IN OUR CWA CONTINUES
PREVIOUS SHIFT`S THINKING IN THE SRN PART OF OUR CWA OF EITHER
SNOW OR SLEET AS A NON LIQUID PTYPE AND NOT FREEZING RAIN. THE
12Z SOUNDINGS MAXT MACROS GIVE AROUND 40F FOR MAX TEMPS, BUT WITH
CLOUDS ARRIVING AND SNOW COVER, WE JUST DID A SLIGHT UPWARD NUDGE.
MUCH CLOSER TO CONTINUITY THAN THE SOUNDING SUGGESTIONS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED BETWEEN THE EAST COAST AND THE
APPALACHIANS. THERE HAS BEEN A FAIRLY LARGE TEMP SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS OF NE PA AND NW NJ WHERE THE HIGH IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND
WINDS WERE CALM. THERE IS ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST FOR A LIGHT NW WIND TO KEEP TEMPS STEADY IN THE UPPER
TEENS/LOWER 20S ACROSS THE DELMARVA, FAR SE PA AND S NJ. HOWEVER,
THESE AREAS HAVE A CHANCE TO COOL SEVERAL MORE DEGREES THRU DAYBREAK
AS THE HIGH BUILDS TOWARD THE COAST.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON WHILE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST TRACKS EASTWARD TOWARD
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES LATE IN THE DAY. AFTER A SUNNY START TO THE
MORNING, HIGH AND MID CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD
OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND LOWER/THICKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TIME OF ARRIVAL FOR THE
PRECIP LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES (MPO-RDG-MQS-ESN
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 4 PM AND 6 PM). NOTE THAT WE DID SPEED UP THE ONSET
AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER AS MODELS OFTEN ARE TOO SLOW WITH THE LEADING
WAA BAND. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT PTYPE STARTING OUT AS SNOW IN PA,
SN/IP IN NE MD/FAR N DELMARVA AND RA/IP TOWARD QUEEN ANNE`S AND
TALBOT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING.
THE INITIAL SHIELD OF PRECIP THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ENTERING OUR FAR
WESTERN ZONES BY THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SPREAD EASTWARD DURING
THE EARLY AND MID EVENING AS A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SWINGS
THRU. PTYPE FROM PHILLY AND POINTS NORTHWARD WILL BE ALL SNOW. A
WARM NOSE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO CAUSE SNOW TO MIX WITH SLEET IN THE
NORTHERN DELMARVA AND THE SOUTHERN MOST LOCATIONS IN NJ. WARMER SFC
TEMPS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MAINLY RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN DE AND
ADJACENT MD ZONES.

POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE HIGHEST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-78
CORRIDOR, WHERE SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE GREATEST AND LESS TRANSITORY
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS EVENT
ARE AROUND 1-2 FOR THESE AREAS. THERE IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY FOR
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ BUT NOT EXPECTING IT TO
BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WINTER WX ADVISORY.

THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER, SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT IN NORTHEAST
PA AND NORTHERN NJ.

WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING TEMPS TO FALL MUCH DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH
CLOUD COVER BLANKETING THE AREA AND A SOUTHWEST WIND AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE ARCTIC FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
BE MOVING AWAY. SCT SNOWS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS JUST AFTER 12Z
WILL REMAIN INTO THE MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. COLD AND WINDY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WITH TEMPS NOT CHANGING MUCH...REMAINING IN
THE LOW 30S NORTH AND MID 30S SOUTH. TEMPS MAY BEGIN TO FALL DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES. WINDS GUSTING TO
25 TO 35 MPH AT TIMES. WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN
POCONOS...TEENS ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF THE AREA AND LOW 20S
ELSEWHERE.

FRI NIGHT THRU SUN MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.
A DRY FCST BUT BITTER COLD TEMPS CONTINUE SAT WITH SOME MODERATION
SUNDAY. HIGHS SAT MOSTLY TEENS (NORTH) AND LOW 20S (SOUTH) WIND
CHILLS MOSTLY SINGLE DIGITS EARLY WITH SUB ZERO FAR NORTH. A WIND
CHILL FLAG MAY BE NEEDED. WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND SRN NJ.

SUN AFTERNOON THRU MONDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
MUCH OF THE AREA. AFTER MORE DISORGANIZED SOLUTIONS FOR THE SYSTEM
WITH THE 12Z WED MODELS...THE 00Z THU OP MODELS HAVE AGAIN SWUNG
BACK TO WETTER SOLUTIONS FOR OUR AREA. GFS...MOVES LOW PRESSURE FROM
THE CAROLINAS UP OFF THE DELMARVA THEN JUST EAST OF 40/70 MONDAY. A
DECENT SWATH OF MODERATE QPF (MOSTLY SNOW) TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. EC...WEAKER LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE CAROLINAS UP WELL EAST
OF THE 40/70 MARK WITH SLOWER DEEPENING. STILL SOME SNOW TO THE
AREA...BUT MUCH LIGHTER AND THE HIGHER TOTALS ARE ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND SRN NJ. CMC...MUCH CLOSER...STRONGER AND VERY WET.
AREAS S/E OF I-95 WOULD CHANGE TO RAIN MON WITH THE CMC SOLUTION.

THERE CAN BE A TENDENCY FOR A NORTHWARD TRACK BIAS WITH SYSTEMS WHEN
A STRONG HIGH IS NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE GFS/CMC MODELS
MAY BE DISPLAYING THIS...SO WE HAVE GONE WITH THE WPC NUMBERS FOR
NOW AND OFFERED THE HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THESE PERIOD. NOT
MUCH OF A CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FCST. WITH THIS WRITTEN...AN
INCREASING CHC FOR AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR SUN NIGHT MONDAY FOR THE
SRN/ERN PARTS OF THE CWA. WE WILL MAKE MENTION OF THIS IN THE HWO
AND ASK USERS TO CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MODELS HAVE YET TO LOCK ON TO A SOLUTION...BUT MAY BE
BEGINNING TO SETTLE...WITH AT LEAST MORE AGREEMENT THAN THIS TIME
LAST NIGHT.

MON NIGHT THRU WED...MORE HIGH PRESSURE WITH COLD TEMPS TUE AND A
BIT WARMER WED. A MOSTLY DRY FCST FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR THIS MRNG AND FIRST PART OF THE AFTN. EXPECT A BAND OF SNOW TO
REACH THE WRN TERMINALS LATE IN THE DAY (RDG AROUND 22Z AND ABE
23Z). VSBYS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR QUICKLY AFTER ONSET OF SNOW.
SNOW MOVES EWD TOWARD THE I-95 TERMINALS BETWEEN 00Z-02Z. THIS
WILL BE A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM, SO ONLY EXPECTING A BRIEF, 3-6 HOUR,
PERIOD OF SNOW. SLEET MAY MIX IN AT ILG/MIV/ACY BUT CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIP MAKING IT TO ACY IS RELATIVELY LOW FOR THIS CLOSE TO THE
EVENT. SNOW MAY LINGER OUT TOWARD ABE-RDG AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING, BECOMING SLY THIS AFTN/EVE AND
SWLY OVERNIGHT 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THRU SUN MORNING...VFR EXPECTED. GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY.
SUN AFTERNOON THRU MONDAY...LOWERING CIGS. SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE. SCA WAS ISSUED FOR
THE COASTAL ZONES, WHICH STARTS AT 11 PM AND CONTINUES THRU THE
OVERNIGHT. WAVES WILL BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT THRU SUN...GALE WARNINGS ISSUED. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE BACK
  TO SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY. FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED.
SUN NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
MON THRU TUE...SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS/SEAS SUBSIDE TUE AFTERNOON.
TUE NIGHT THRU WED...SCA SEAS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 291441
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
941 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW YORK TONIGHT AND THEN
ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. IT WILL SEND AN ARCTIC
FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
MOST OF THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO BIG CHANGES WITH THIS ESTF UPDATE. THE MESOSCALE MODELS REMAIN
PRETTY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AS TO THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION PRETTY
CLOSE TO 00Z ALG THE DE VLY. THERE IS A SOUTHWARD DP/DT TREND WITH
THE HRRR. WE HAVE NOT ARRIVED WITHIN THE HOURS OF CONCERN AND THE
LATEST 12Z NAM REMAINS DRY IN THE SRN PART OF OUR CWA. WE WILL SEE
IF THE TREND CONTINUES TO UP POPS WITH THE NEXT UPDATE. MORNING
12Z SOUNDINGS SHOWING PLENTY OF DRY AIR BELOW 700MB. THIS IS A
GOOD THING BECAUSE PRECIPITATION WOULD EVAP COOL TO SNOW. BASED ON
FCST SOUNDINGS (NO TEMPS ALF GET >2C) IN OUR CWA CONTINUES
PREVIOUS SHIFT`S THINKING IN THE SRN PART OF OUR CWA OF EITHER
SNOW OR SLEET AS A NON LIQUID PTYPE AND NOT FREEZING RAIN. THE
12Z SOUNDINGS MAXT MACROS GIVE AROUND 40F FOR MAX TEMPS, BUT WITH
CLOUDS ARRIVING AND SNOW COVER, WE JUST DID A SLIGHT UPWARD NUDGE.
MUCH CLOSER TO CONTINUITY THAN THE SOUNDING SUGGESTIONS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED BETWEEN THE EAST COAST AND THE
APPALACHIANS. THERE HAS BEEN A FAIRLY LARGE TEMP SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS OF NE PA AND NW NJ WHERE THE HIGH IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND
WINDS WERE CALM. THERE IS ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST FOR A LIGHT NW WIND TO KEEP TEMPS STEADY IN THE UPPER
TEENS/LOWER 20S ACROSS THE DELMARVA, FAR SE PA AND S NJ. HOWEVER,
THESE AREAS HAVE A CHANCE TO COOL SEVERAL MORE DEGREES THRU DAYBREAK
AS THE HIGH BUILDS TOWARD THE COAST.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON WHILE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST TRACKS EASTWARD TOWARD
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES LATE IN THE DAY. AFTER A SUNNY START TO THE
MORNING, HIGH AND MID CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD
OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND LOWER/THICKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TIME OF ARRIVAL FOR THE
PRECIP LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES (MPO-RDG-MQS-ESN
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 4 PM AND 6 PM). NOTE THAT WE DID SPEED UP THE ONSET
AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER AS MODELS OFTEN ARE TOO SLOW WITH THE LEADING
WAA BAND. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT PTYPE STARTING OUT AS SNOW IN PA,
SN/IP IN NE MD/FAR N DELMARVA AND RA/IP TOWARD QUEEN ANNE`S AND
TALBOT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING.
THE INITIAL SHIELD OF PRECIP THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ENTERING OUR FAR
WESTERN ZONES BY THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SPREAD EASTWARD DURING
THE EARLY AND MID EVENING AS A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SWINGS
THRU. PTYPE FROM PHILLY AND POINTS NORTHWARD WILL BE ALL SNOW. A
WARM NOSE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO CAUSE SNOW TO MIX WITH SLEET IN THE
NORTHERN DELMARVA AND THE SOUTHERN MOST LOCATIONS IN NJ. WARMER SFC
TEMPS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MAINLY RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN DE AND
ADJACENT MD ZONES.

POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE HIGHEST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-78
CORRIDOR, WHERE SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE GREATEST AND LESS TRANSITORY
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS EVENT
ARE AROUND 1-2 FOR THESE AREAS. THERE IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY FOR
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ BUT NOT EXPECTING IT TO
BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WINTER WX ADVISORY.

THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER, SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT IN NORTHEAST
PA AND NORTHERN NJ.

WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING TEMPS TO FALL MUCH DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH
CLOUD COVER BLANKETING THE AREA AND A SOUTHWEST WIND AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE ARCTIC FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
BE MOVING AWAY. SCT SNOWS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS JUST AFTER 12Z
WILL REMAIN INTO THE MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. COLD AND WINDY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WITH TEMPS NOT CHANGING MUCH...REMAINING IN
THE LOW 30S NORTH AND MID 30S SOUTH. TEMPS MAY BEGIN TO FALL DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES. WINDS GUSTING TO
25 TO 35 MPH AT TIMES. WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN
POCONOS...TEENS ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF THE AREA AND LOW 20S
ELSEWHERE.

FRI NIGHT THRU SUN MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.
A DRY FCST BUT BITTER COLD TEMPS CONTINUE SAT WITH SOME MODERATION
SUNDAY. HIGHS SAT MOSTLY TEENS (NORTH) AND LOW 20S (SOUTH) WIND
CHILLS MOSTLY SINGLE DIGITS EARLY WITH SUB ZERO FAR NORTH. A WIND
CHILL FLAG MAY BE NEEDED. WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND SRN NJ.

SUN AFTERNOON THRU MONDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
MUCH OF THE AREA. AFTER MORE DISORGANIZED SOLUTIONS FOR THE SYSTEM
WITH THE 12Z WED MODELS...THE 00Z THU OP MODELS HAVE AGAIN SWUNG
BACK TO WETTER SOLUTIONS FOR OUR AREA. GFS...MOVES LOW PRESSURE FROM
THE CAROLINAS UP OFF THE DELMARVA THEN JUST EAST OF 40/70 MONDAY. A
DECENT SWATH OF MODERATE QPF (MOSTLY SNOW) TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. EC...WEAKER LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE CAROLINAS UP WELL EAST
OF THE 40/70 MARK WITH SLOWER DEEPENING. STILL SOME SNOW TO THE
AREA...BUT MUCH LIGHTER AND THE HIGHER TOTALS ARE ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND SRN NJ. CMC...MUCH CLOSER...STRONGER AND VERY WET.
AREAS S/E OF I-95 WOULD CHANGE TO RAIN MON WITH THE CMC SOLUTION.

THERE CAN BE A TENDENCY FOR A NORTHWARD TRACK BIAS WITH SYSTEMS WHEN
A STRONG HIGH IS NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE GFS/CMC MODELS
MAY BE DISPLAYING THIS...SO WE HAVE GONE WITH THE WPC NUMBERS FOR
NOW AND OFFERED THE HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THESE PERIOD. NOT
MUCH OF A CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FCST. WITH THIS WRITTEN...AN
INCREASING CHC FOR AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR SUN NIGHT MONDAY FOR THE
SRN/ERN PARTS OF THE CWA. WE WILL MAKE MENTION OF THIS IN THE HWO
AND ASK USERS TO CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MODELS HAVE YET TO LOCK ON TO A SOLUTION...BUT MAY BE
BEGINNING TO SETTLE...WITH AT LEAST MORE AGREEMENT THAN THIS TIME
LAST NIGHT.

MON NIGHT THRU WED...MORE HIGH PRESSURE WITH COLD TEMPS TUE AND A
BIT WARMER WED. A MOSTLY DRY FCST FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR THIS MRNG AND FIRST PART OF THE AFTN. EXPECT A BAND OF SNOW TO
REACH THE WRN TERMINALS LATE IN THE DAY (RDG AROUND 22Z AND ABE
23Z). VSBYS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR QUICKLY AFTER ONSET OF SNOW.
SNOW MOVES EWD TOWARD THE I-95 TERMINALS BETWEEN 00Z-02Z. THIS
WILL BE A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM, SO ONLY EXPECTING A BRIEF, 3-6 HOUR,
PERIOD OF SNOW. SLEET MAY MIX IN AT ILG/MIV/ACY BUT CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIP MAKING IT TO ACY IS RELATIVELY LOW FOR THIS CLOSE TO THE
EVENT. SNOW MAY LINGER OUT TOWARD ABE-RDG AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING, BECOMING SLY THIS AFTN/EVE AND
SWLY OVERNIGHT 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THRU SUN MORNING...VFR EXPECTED. GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY.
SUN AFTERNOON THRU MONDAY...LOWERING CIGS. SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE. SCA WAS ISSUED FOR
THE COASTAL ZONES, WHICH STARTS AT 11 PM AND CONTINUES THRU THE
OVERNIGHT. WAVES WILL BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT THRU SUN...GALE WARNINGS ISSUED. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE BACK
  TO SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY. FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED.
SUN NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
MON THRU TUE...SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS/SEAS SUBSIDE TUE AFTERNOON.
TUE NIGHT THRU WED...SCA SEAS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 291441
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
941 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW YORK TONIGHT AND THEN
ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. IT WILL SEND AN ARCTIC
FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
MOST OF THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO BIG CHANGES WITH THIS ESTF UPDATE. THE MESOSCALE MODELS REMAIN
PRETTY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AS TO THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION PRETTY
CLOSE TO 00Z ALG THE DE VLY. THERE IS A SOUTHWARD DP/DT TREND WITH
THE HRRR. WE HAVE NOT ARRIVED WITHIN THE HOURS OF CONCERN AND THE
LATEST 12Z NAM REMAINS DRY IN THE SRN PART OF OUR CWA. WE WILL SEE
IF THE TREND CONTINUES TO UP POPS WITH THE NEXT UPDATE. MORNING
12Z SOUNDINGS SHOWING PLENTY OF DRY AIR BELOW 700MB. THIS IS A
GOOD THING BECAUSE PRECIPITATION WOULD EVAP COOL TO SNOW. BASED ON
FCST SOUNDINGS (NO TEMPS ALF GET >2C) IN OUR CWA CONTINUES
PREVIOUS SHIFT`S THINKING IN THE SRN PART OF OUR CWA OF EITHER
SNOW OR SLEET AS A NON LIQUID PTYPE AND NOT FREEZING RAIN. THE
12Z SOUNDINGS MAXT MACROS GIVE AROUND 40F FOR MAX TEMPS, BUT WITH
CLOUDS ARRIVING AND SNOW COVER, WE JUST DID A SLIGHT UPWARD NUDGE.
MUCH CLOSER TO CONTINUITY THAN THE SOUNDING SUGGESTIONS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED BETWEEN THE EAST COAST AND THE
APPALACHIANS. THERE HAS BEEN A FAIRLY LARGE TEMP SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS OF NE PA AND NW NJ WHERE THE HIGH IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND
WINDS WERE CALM. THERE IS ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST FOR A LIGHT NW WIND TO KEEP TEMPS STEADY IN THE UPPER
TEENS/LOWER 20S ACROSS THE DELMARVA, FAR SE PA AND S NJ. HOWEVER,
THESE AREAS HAVE A CHANCE TO COOL SEVERAL MORE DEGREES THRU DAYBREAK
AS THE HIGH BUILDS TOWARD THE COAST.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON WHILE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST TRACKS EASTWARD TOWARD
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES LATE IN THE DAY. AFTER A SUNNY START TO THE
MORNING, HIGH AND MID CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD
OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND LOWER/THICKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TIME OF ARRIVAL FOR THE
PRECIP LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES (MPO-RDG-MQS-ESN
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 4 PM AND 6 PM). NOTE THAT WE DID SPEED UP THE ONSET
AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER AS MODELS OFTEN ARE TOO SLOW WITH THE LEADING
WAA BAND. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT PTYPE STARTING OUT AS SNOW IN PA,
SN/IP IN NE MD/FAR N DELMARVA AND RA/IP TOWARD QUEEN ANNE`S AND
TALBOT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING.
THE INITIAL SHIELD OF PRECIP THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ENTERING OUR FAR
WESTERN ZONES BY THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SPREAD EASTWARD DURING
THE EARLY AND MID EVENING AS A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SWINGS
THRU. PTYPE FROM PHILLY AND POINTS NORTHWARD WILL BE ALL SNOW. A
WARM NOSE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO CAUSE SNOW TO MIX WITH SLEET IN THE
NORTHERN DELMARVA AND THE SOUTHERN MOST LOCATIONS IN NJ. WARMER SFC
TEMPS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MAINLY RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN DE AND
ADJACENT MD ZONES.

POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE HIGHEST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-78
CORRIDOR, WHERE SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE GREATEST AND LESS TRANSITORY
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS EVENT
ARE AROUND 1-2 FOR THESE AREAS. THERE IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY FOR
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ BUT NOT EXPECTING IT TO
BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WINTER WX ADVISORY.

THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER, SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT IN NORTHEAST
PA AND NORTHERN NJ.

WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING TEMPS TO FALL MUCH DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH
CLOUD COVER BLANKETING THE AREA AND A SOUTHWEST WIND AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE ARCTIC FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
BE MOVING AWAY. SCT SNOWS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS JUST AFTER 12Z
WILL REMAIN INTO THE MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. COLD AND WINDY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WITH TEMPS NOT CHANGING MUCH...REMAINING IN
THE LOW 30S NORTH AND MID 30S SOUTH. TEMPS MAY BEGIN TO FALL DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES. WINDS GUSTING TO
25 TO 35 MPH AT TIMES. WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN
POCONOS...TEENS ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF THE AREA AND LOW 20S
ELSEWHERE.

FRI NIGHT THRU SUN MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.
A DRY FCST BUT BITTER COLD TEMPS CONTINUE SAT WITH SOME MODERATION
SUNDAY. HIGHS SAT MOSTLY TEENS (NORTH) AND LOW 20S (SOUTH) WIND
CHILLS MOSTLY SINGLE DIGITS EARLY WITH SUB ZERO FAR NORTH. A WIND
CHILL FLAG MAY BE NEEDED. WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND SRN NJ.

SUN AFTERNOON THRU MONDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
MUCH OF THE AREA. AFTER MORE DISORGANIZED SOLUTIONS FOR THE SYSTEM
WITH THE 12Z WED MODELS...THE 00Z THU OP MODELS HAVE AGAIN SWUNG
BACK TO WETTER SOLUTIONS FOR OUR AREA. GFS...MOVES LOW PRESSURE FROM
THE CAROLINAS UP OFF THE DELMARVA THEN JUST EAST OF 40/70 MONDAY. A
DECENT SWATH OF MODERATE QPF (MOSTLY SNOW) TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. EC...WEAKER LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE CAROLINAS UP WELL EAST
OF THE 40/70 MARK WITH SLOWER DEEPENING. STILL SOME SNOW TO THE
AREA...BUT MUCH LIGHTER AND THE HIGHER TOTALS ARE ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND SRN NJ. CMC...MUCH CLOSER...STRONGER AND VERY WET.
AREAS S/E OF I-95 WOULD CHANGE TO RAIN MON WITH THE CMC SOLUTION.

THERE CAN BE A TENDENCY FOR A NORTHWARD TRACK BIAS WITH SYSTEMS WHEN
A STRONG HIGH IS NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE GFS/CMC MODELS
MAY BE DISPLAYING THIS...SO WE HAVE GONE WITH THE WPC NUMBERS FOR
NOW AND OFFERED THE HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THESE PERIOD. NOT
MUCH OF A CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FCST. WITH THIS WRITTEN...AN
INCREASING CHC FOR AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR SUN NIGHT MONDAY FOR THE
SRN/ERN PARTS OF THE CWA. WE WILL MAKE MENTION OF THIS IN THE HWO
AND ASK USERS TO CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MODELS HAVE YET TO LOCK ON TO A SOLUTION...BUT MAY BE
BEGINNING TO SETTLE...WITH AT LEAST MORE AGREEMENT THAN THIS TIME
LAST NIGHT.

MON NIGHT THRU WED...MORE HIGH PRESSURE WITH COLD TEMPS TUE AND A
BIT WARMER WED. A MOSTLY DRY FCST FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR THIS MRNG AND FIRST PART OF THE AFTN. EXPECT A BAND OF SNOW TO
REACH THE WRN TERMINALS LATE IN THE DAY (RDG AROUND 22Z AND ABE
23Z). VSBYS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR QUICKLY AFTER ONSET OF SNOW.
SNOW MOVES EWD TOWARD THE I-95 TERMINALS BETWEEN 00Z-02Z. THIS
WILL BE A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM, SO ONLY EXPECTING A BRIEF, 3-6 HOUR,
PERIOD OF SNOW. SLEET MAY MIX IN AT ILG/MIV/ACY BUT CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIP MAKING IT TO ACY IS RELATIVELY LOW FOR THIS CLOSE TO THE
EVENT. SNOW MAY LINGER OUT TOWARD ABE-RDG AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING, BECOMING SLY THIS AFTN/EVE AND
SWLY OVERNIGHT 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THRU SUN MORNING...VFR EXPECTED. GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY.
SUN AFTERNOON THRU MONDAY...LOWERING CIGS. SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE. SCA WAS ISSUED FOR
THE COASTAL ZONES, WHICH STARTS AT 11 PM AND CONTINUES THRU THE
OVERNIGHT. WAVES WILL BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT THRU SUN...GALE WARNINGS ISSUED. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE BACK
  TO SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY. FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED.
SUN NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
MON THRU TUE...SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS/SEAS SUBSIDE TUE AFTERNOON.
TUE NIGHT THRU WED...SCA SEAS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291351
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
851 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CROSSING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE UPPER OHIO REGION TODAY AND SNOW EARLY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUICK UPDT TO EXPAND THE FRZG RAIN ADVY ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
AN APCHG SHRTWV AND CDFNT. PCPN IS ALREADY IN THE OH COUNTIES MOVG
E...AND SHOULD RCH THE AREA THRU THE REST OF THE MRNG/ERLY AFTN.
AIR TEMPS WL BE RISING...THOUGH LOW DEW PTS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
WET BULBING LIMITING THAT RISE. WITH RECENT COLD WEA ROAD TEMPS
ARE BLO FRZG AND WL LIKELY RMN THERE INTO ERLY AFTN...EVEN IF AIR
TEMPS CLIMB JUST ABV FRZG. FURTHER N AND IN THE RIDGES...CONTD WITH
WINTER WEA ADVYS AS THUICKNESSES/SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE PCPN
WL LIKELY BE A MIX OF SNW AND FRZG RAIN. NUDGED TEMPS TO THE
LATEST LAMP AND NAM NMBRS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERMAL PROFILES QUICKLY BECOME MORE UNSTABLE TONIGHT. COLD
ADVECTION BEGINS IN EARNEST ALOFT AS TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE
SET TO CROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL OCCUR
SIMULTANEOUSLY TO THE DRIER AIR COMING IN...HOWEVER THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH LAYER LOOKS TO CRASH TOWARD THE SURFACE TONIGHT IN THE
RIDGES...WELL BEFORE THE MOISTURE PEELS OFF. CONSENSUS SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS FROM THE NAM AND GFS VIA BUFKIT SUGGEST AROUND 25 TO
1 BEGIN OVERNIGHT. GIVEN INSTABILITY AND UNIDIRECTIONAL
UPSLOPE...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN VERY EFFICIENT SNOW GROWTH. MODEL
QPF IS GENERALLY ONLY A COUPLE OF TENTHS...AND GIVEN ICE COVER
UPSTREAM ON LAKE ERIE...A TON OF QPF IS VERY UNLIKELY.
HOWEVER...EVEN LIGHT QPF IN THIS CASE IS LIKELY TO ADD UP TO
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. GIVEN THAT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY
THERE COULD BE AN INCH OR SO IN SOME OF THE SHELTERED HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND ANOTHER 2 TO 5 SEEM LIKELY IN THE UPSLOPE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC HELP VIA TWO ADDITIONAL WAVES
CROSSING THE AREA...3 TO 6 INCH TOTALS SEEM REASONABLE IN THE
RIDGES BY FRIDAY MORNING. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE EXPANDED
TO ACCOMMODATE THIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH LEVELS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PARTICULARLY WITH THE
SYSTEM THAT COULD AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME
FRAME. FOR NOW...CONSISTENCY WILL BE THE NAME OF THE GAME UNTIL
THE MODELS PROVIDE A BETTER PICTURE. COLD PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HANGING ON TO VFR CONDITIONS AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH
MID CLOUDS INVADING...BUT THIS WILL START TO CHANGE SOON.
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO MOVE IN AFTER 14Z ASSOCIATED WITH GREAT
LAKES LOW. STILL LOOKING AT BEST FZRA POSSIBILITIES AT
ZZV...FKL...AND DUJ. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA AT
HLG AND PIT/AGC...BUT STILL UNCERTAIN ENOUGH TO NOT INCLUDE YET.
OTHERWISE...RA OR A RA/SN MIX.  FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
THROUGH MVFR LATER THIS MORNING/MIDDAY TO IFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH AFTER 00Z CHANGING ALL PRECIP
TO SNOW WITH CONTINUED IFR CONDITIONS...WITH ZZV/MGW CLINGING TO
MVFR. SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TOWARDS 12Z AT WESTERN TERMINALS AS MORE
OF A NW FLOW/UPSLOPE PATTERN TAKES HOLD. CL

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS ARRIVES SUNDAY WITH NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     015-016-023-074-076.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ013-014-020>022-029-031-073-075.
WV...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ001>004-012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ023-041.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ021-022.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291351
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
851 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CROSSING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE UPPER OHIO REGION TODAY AND SNOW EARLY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUICK UPDT TO EXPAND THE FRZG RAIN ADVY ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
AN APCHG SHRTWV AND CDFNT. PCPN IS ALREADY IN THE OH COUNTIES MOVG
E...AND SHOULD RCH THE AREA THRU THE REST OF THE MRNG/ERLY AFTN.
AIR TEMPS WL BE RISING...THOUGH LOW DEW PTS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
WET BULBING LIMITING THAT RISE. WITH RECENT COLD WEA ROAD TEMPS
ARE BLO FRZG AND WL LIKELY RMN THERE INTO ERLY AFTN...EVEN IF AIR
TEMPS CLIMB JUST ABV FRZG. FURTHER N AND IN THE RIDGES...CONTD WITH
WINTER WEA ADVYS AS THUICKNESSES/SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE PCPN
WL LIKELY BE A MIX OF SNW AND FRZG RAIN. NUDGED TEMPS TO THE
LATEST LAMP AND NAM NMBRS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERMAL PROFILES QUICKLY BECOME MORE UNSTABLE TONIGHT. COLD
ADVECTION BEGINS IN EARNEST ALOFT AS TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE
SET TO CROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL OCCUR
SIMULTANEOUSLY TO THE DRIER AIR COMING IN...HOWEVER THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH LAYER LOOKS TO CRASH TOWARD THE SURFACE TONIGHT IN THE
RIDGES...WELL BEFORE THE MOISTURE PEELS OFF. CONSENSUS SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS FROM THE NAM AND GFS VIA BUFKIT SUGGEST AROUND 25 TO
1 BEGIN OVERNIGHT. GIVEN INSTABILITY AND UNIDIRECTIONAL
UPSLOPE...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN VERY EFFICIENT SNOW GROWTH. MODEL
QPF IS GENERALLY ONLY A COUPLE OF TENTHS...AND GIVEN ICE COVER
UPSTREAM ON LAKE ERIE...A TON OF QPF IS VERY UNLIKELY.
HOWEVER...EVEN LIGHT QPF IN THIS CASE IS LIKELY TO ADD UP TO
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. GIVEN THAT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY
THERE COULD BE AN INCH OR SO IN SOME OF THE SHELTERED HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND ANOTHER 2 TO 5 SEEM LIKELY IN THE UPSLOPE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC HELP VIA TWO ADDITIONAL WAVES
CROSSING THE AREA...3 TO 6 INCH TOTALS SEEM REASONABLE IN THE
RIDGES BY FRIDAY MORNING. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE EXPANDED
TO ACCOMMODATE THIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH LEVELS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PARTICULARLY WITH THE
SYSTEM THAT COULD AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME
FRAME. FOR NOW...CONSISTENCY WILL BE THE NAME OF THE GAME UNTIL
THE MODELS PROVIDE A BETTER PICTURE. COLD PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HANGING ON TO VFR CONDITIONS AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH
MID CLOUDS INVADING...BUT THIS WILL START TO CHANGE SOON.
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO MOVE IN AFTER 14Z ASSOCIATED WITH GREAT
LAKES LOW. STILL LOOKING AT BEST FZRA POSSIBILITIES AT
ZZV...FKL...AND DUJ. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA AT
HLG AND PIT/AGC...BUT STILL UNCERTAIN ENOUGH TO NOT INCLUDE YET.
OTHERWISE...RA OR A RA/SN MIX.  FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
THROUGH MVFR LATER THIS MORNING/MIDDAY TO IFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH AFTER 00Z CHANGING ALL PRECIP
TO SNOW WITH CONTINUED IFR CONDITIONS...WITH ZZV/MGW CLINGING TO
MVFR. SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TOWARDS 12Z AT WESTERN TERMINALS AS MORE
OF A NW FLOW/UPSLOPE PATTERN TAKES HOLD. CL

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS ARRIVES SUNDAY WITH NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     015-016-023-074-076.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ013-014-020>022-029-031-073-075.
WV...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ001>004-012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ023-041.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ021-022.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291210
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
710 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS
TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES WILL
AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE SSE THROUGH
THE DAY AS ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES AND
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST U.S. TODAY. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTN AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP BTWN THE HIGH SHIFTING SSE AND THE APPROACHING CLIPPER
SYSTEM. THE MIXING SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES WEST...WITH HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EAST. OVERALL
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S (LOW-MID 40S NRN NECK AND
MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGH CLOUDS BTWN 15-20KFT WILL ALSO INCREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND MAY HAMPER TEMPS FROM
WARMING ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO BUT EXPECT MIXING TO OVERCOME THIS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA.

A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM. AT THE ONSET...PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING NORTH OF RICHMOND FROM
ROUGHLY LOUISA TO SALISBURY AND THEN SHIFT OVER THE MD LOWER
EASTERN SHORE THIS EVENING BEFORE LIFTING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS BEGIN AROUND 6KFT AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN. THERE IS A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIFT THROUGH THE BOTTOM PORTIONS OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
(00-03Z)...THEREFORE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SLEET BRIEFLY
MIXING WITH RAIN OVER THE NRN NECK/MD EASTERN SHORE AFTER DARK.
PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END LATE IN THE EVENING AS BEST
MOISTURE/ENERGY LIFTS NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BE VERY LIMITED WITH QPF AMTS NO HIGHER THAN
0.03 INCHES AT BEST. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS CENTERED AROUND
06Z (1 AM) AND IS EXPECTED TO BE OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK. COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND DRYING ALOFT WILL COMMENCE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
UNSTABLE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW WLY WINDS TO REMAIN
BREEZY OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S NW TO UPPER 30S
FAR SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL BE A COLD BRISK DAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS A
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING IN
A VERY TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. GUSTY NW WINDS OF 30-35 MPH
WILL DEVELOP BY MID MORNING AND PERSIST INTO FRI EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVER INLAND AREAS. CLOSER TO THE COAST...WINDS MAY
GUST UP TO 40 MPH AT TIMES DURING THE DAY AND THEN REMAIN GUSTY TO
AROUND 30 MPH FRI NIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE IN FULL FORCE
FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL DESPITE THE WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE LOW-MID 40S (UPPER 30S NRN NECK AND MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). LOW
FRI NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS NORTH AND WEST OF RICHMOND...
LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE...UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE COMBINATION OF
WIND AND COLD TEMPS WILL KEEP WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S DURING THE DAY FRI...AND FROM 5-15 DEGREES FRI NIGHT.

THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
SAT/SAT NIGHT WITH A CONTINUATION OF COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S MOST AREAS...UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST FROM
THE NRN NECK TO VIRGINIA BEACH...AND IN THE LOW-MID 30S MD/VA
EASTERN SHORE. NW WINDS REMAIN BREEZY ALONG THE COAST ON SAT WITH
GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH AND WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM THE
MID-UPPER 30S SW TO LOW-MID 20S NE. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE 20S WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM SW TO NE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TIMING DIFFERENCES ALONG WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT 12Z MODEL CHANGES
MAKES THIS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST SUN INTO MON. GFS MUCH FASTER
IN BRINGING PCPN ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC RGN SUNDAY THAN BOTH THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN. THE QUICKER GFS SOLN WOULD LEAD TO P-TYPE ISSUES
ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS SUNDAY WHILE THE SLOWER SOLNS WUD MAINLY BE
RAIN (OR A RAIN WET SNOW MIX ACROSS THE NORTH) IN THE AFTN.
CONVERSELY...THE GFS IS QUICKER TO END PCPN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE SLOWER SOLNS KEEP PCPN GOING FOR THE BETTER PART OF MON WITH
COLDER AIR OOZING SOUTH.

WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...TRIED TO BLEND THE FORECAST AS MUCH AS PSBL
KNOWING THAT LATER MODEL RUNS SHOULD SHED BETTER LIGHT ON THE SYSTM.
DRY AND COLD SAT NIGHT WITH INCRG CLDNS. LOWS IN THE 20S XCPT L30S
SERN CSTL AREAS. KEPT A BIT OF FCST CONTINUITY AND BROUGHT LOW CHC
POPS ACROSS WRN CNTYS SUNDAY MORNING. THICKNESSES SUGGEST SOME SLEET
PSBL AT THE START ACROSS NWRN MOST CNTYS WITH RAIN OVRSPRDG THE FA
SUNDAY AFTN AS THE LOW PRS TRACKS ACROSS NRN VA. HIGHS IN THE 40S
AS THE COLD AIR LURKS JUST NORTH OF THE FA. LIKELY RAIN SUNDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE FA...BUT LWRD TO CHC POPS AFTR MIDNIGHT. KEPT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS LATE AS THE PCPN ENDS. ANY P TYPE
ISSUES WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH CAN
COME SOUTH BEFORE PCPN ENDS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO NR 40
ACROSS NC NE CNTYS NR THE ALBEMARLE SND.

SPLIT MONDAYS FCST UP INTO 2 SEGMENTS AS WELL. CHC RAIN ALONG AND
EAST OF I-95 IN THE MORNING...DRYING IT OUT IN THE AFTN AS THE
TRAILING FRNT CLRS THE COAST. COULD EVEN SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
THE LWR MD ERN SHORE ERLY MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE U30S N TO M-U40S S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT THRU TUES NIGHT.
LOWS MON NITE UTEENS TO U20S. HIGHS TUE IN THE 30S. LOWS TUE NIGHT
IN THE 20S TO NR 30.

YET ANTHR MOIST SRN STREAM SYSTM PROGGED TO COME OUT OF THE GULF
COAST STATES AND MOVE NE ALONG THE SERN COAST WED. THIS SYSTM BEARS
WATCHING AS THE COLD AIR MAY BE HARDER TO DISLODGE. WENT WITH CHC
POPS (LIQUID) FOR NOW WITH HIGHS 40-45.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES (SOME HIGH CIRRUS) WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
AS OF 12Z. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE LATER TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ALONG
WITH AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS...SKIES GENLY BECOMING BKN/OVC
BY 18Z BUT CIGS REMAIN 10-15K FT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA ALONG AND N OF A RIC-SBY LINE...AND PERHAPS
PCPN ENDING AS A MIX OF -RASN AT SBY. CIGS WILL AVG 5-10 K FT. A
GUSTY NW WIND IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT (MAYBE AS
HIGH AS 35 KT AT KSBY) AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.
THAT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY...WITH A MORE MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTING THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED SCA`S THROUGH 10 AM FOR NC COASTAL WATERS...OTHERWISE ALL
HEADLINES HAVE ENDED IN THE NEAR TERM.

ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF "SUB SCA" CONDITIONS TODAY BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. N WINDS BECOME RATHER LIGHT BY
MID-LATE MORNING...THEN SHIFT TO THE SSE THIS AFTN AND EVENTUALLY
THE SSW TONIGHT. HAVE RAISED SCA HEADLINES OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE MARINE AREA LATER THIS EVENING AS SSW WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT.

STILL...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT EVENT COMES FRI/FRI NIGHT IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT AS VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL BRING OPTIMAL MIXING
IN WHAT WILL ALREADY BE A STRONG GRADIENT WIND. HAVE RAISED GALE
WARNINGS FOR MOST OF THE REGION...WITH STRONG SCA`S EXPECTED FOR
THE UPPER JAMES AND CURRITUCK SOUND. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST TO
35-40 KT ACRS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND THE BAY...WITH 40-45
KT OVER COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND. RAPPAHANNOCK/YORK
AND LOWER JAMES WILL BE MORE MARGINAL FOR GALES BUT DECIDED TO GO
FOR IT DUE TO THE OPTIMAL MIXING SCENARIO AND 900 MB WINDS PROGGED
TO BE CLOSE TO 40 KT. GIVEN TMPS FALLING BLO 30 DEGREES...FREEZING
SPRAY REMAINS IN FORECAST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZING SPRAY
ADVSRY ACROSS NRN CSTL WTRS WHERE AIR TMPS IN THE L20S ARE XPCTD.
SEAS/WAVES QUICKLY INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE GUSTY WINDS. SEAS
AVG 7-10 FT WITH BAY WAVES 4-6 FT DURING THIS PERIOD.

CNDTNS BEGIN TO IMPROVE SAT AFTN/NIGHT AS THE CANADIAN HIGH TRACKS OVR
THE RGN. NXT SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE SUN INTO MON. WILL LIKELY SEE ANTHR ROUND OF SCA`S
WITH THIS SYSTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ630>632-634>636-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR ANZ633-637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ630-631-650-652.
     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652-654.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...LKB/DAP
MARINE...LKB/MPR







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291210
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
710 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS
TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES WILL
AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE SSE THROUGH
THE DAY AS ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES AND
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST U.S. TODAY. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTN AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP BTWN THE HIGH SHIFTING SSE AND THE APPROACHING CLIPPER
SYSTEM. THE MIXING SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES WEST...WITH HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EAST. OVERALL
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S (LOW-MID 40S NRN NECK AND
MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGH CLOUDS BTWN 15-20KFT WILL ALSO INCREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND MAY HAMPER TEMPS FROM
WARMING ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO BUT EXPECT MIXING TO OVERCOME THIS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA.

A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM. AT THE ONSET...PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING NORTH OF RICHMOND FROM
ROUGHLY LOUISA TO SALISBURY AND THEN SHIFT OVER THE MD LOWER
EASTERN SHORE THIS EVENING BEFORE LIFTING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS BEGIN AROUND 6KFT AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN. THERE IS A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIFT THROUGH THE BOTTOM PORTIONS OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
(00-03Z)...THEREFORE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SLEET BRIEFLY
MIXING WITH RAIN OVER THE NRN NECK/MD EASTERN SHORE AFTER DARK.
PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END LATE IN THE EVENING AS BEST
MOISTURE/ENERGY LIFTS NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BE VERY LIMITED WITH QPF AMTS NO HIGHER THAN
0.03 INCHES AT BEST. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS CENTERED AROUND
06Z (1 AM) AND IS EXPECTED TO BE OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK. COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND DRYING ALOFT WILL COMMENCE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
UNSTABLE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW WLY WINDS TO REMAIN
BREEZY OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S NW TO UPPER 30S
FAR SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL BE A COLD BRISK DAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS A
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING IN
A VERY TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. GUSTY NW WINDS OF 30-35 MPH
WILL DEVELOP BY MID MORNING AND PERSIST INTO FRI EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVER INLAND AREAS. CLOSER TO THE COAST...WINDS MAY
GUST UP TO 40 MPH AT TIMES DURING THE DAY AND THEN REMAIN GUSTY TO
AROUND 30 MPH FRI NIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE IN FULL FORCE
FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL DESPITE THE WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE LOW-MID 40S (UPPER 30S NRN NECK AND MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). LOW
FRI NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS NORTH AND WEST OF RICHMOND...
LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE...UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE COMBINATION OF
WIND AND COLD TEMPS WILL KEEP WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S DURING THE DAY FRI...AND FROM 5-15 DEGREES FRI NIGHT.

THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
SAT/SAT NIGHT WITH A CONTINUATION OF COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S MOST AREAS...UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST FROM
THE NRN NECK TO VIRGINIA BEACH...AND IN THE LOW-MID 30S MD/VA
EASTERN SHORE. NW WINDS REMAIN BREEZY ALONG THE COAST ON SAT WITH
GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH AND WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM THE
MID-UPPER 30S SW TO LOW-MID 20S NE. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE 20S WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM SW TO NE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TIMING DIFFERENCES ALONG WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT 12Z MODEL CHANGES
MAKES THIS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST SUN INTO MON. GFS MUCH FASTER
IN BRINGING PCPN ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC RGN SUNDAY THAN BOTH THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN. THE QUICKER GFS SOLN WOULD LEAD TO P-TYPE ISSUES
ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS SUNDAY WHILE THE SLOWER SOLNS WUD MAINLY BE
RAIN (OR A RAIN WET SNOW MIX ACROSS THE NORTH) IN THE AFTN.
CONVERSELY...THE GFS IS QUICKER TO END PCPN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE SLOWER SOLNS KEEP PCPN GOING FOR THE BETTER PART OF MON WITH
COLDER AIR OOZING SOUTH.

WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...TRIED TO BLEND THE FORECAST AS MUCH AS PSBL
KNOWING THAT LATER MODEL RUNS SHOULD SHED BETTER LIGHT ON THE SYSTM.
DRY AND COLD SAT NIGHT WITH INCRG CLDNS. LOWS IN THE 20S XCPT L30S
SERN CSTL AREAS. KEPT A BIT OF FCST CONTINUITY AND BROUGHT LOW CHC
POPS ACROSS WRN CNTYS SUNDAY MORNING. THICKNESSES SUGGEST SOME SLEET
PSBL AT THE START ACROSS NWRN MOST CNTYS WITH RAIN OVRSPRDG THE FA
SUNDAY AFTN AS THE LOW PRS TRACKS ACROSS NRN VA. HIGHS IN THE 40S
AS THE COLD AIR LURKS JUST NORTH OF THE FA. LIKELY RAIN SUNDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE FA...BUT LWRD TO CHC POPS AFTR MIDNIGHT. KEPT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS LATE AS THE PCPN ENDS. ANY P TYPE
ISSUES WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH CAN
COME SOUTH BEFORE PCPN ENDS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO NR 40
ACROSS NC NE CNTYS NR THE ALBEMARLE SND.

SPLIT MONDAYS FCST UP INTO 2 SEGMENTS AS WELL. CHC RAIN ALONG AND
EAST OF I-95 IN THE MORNING...DRYING IT OUT IN THE AFTN AS THE
TRAILING FRNT CLRS THE COAST. COULD EVEN SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
THE LWR MD ERN SHORE ERLY MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE U30S N TO M-U40S S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT THRU TUES NIGHT.
LOWS MON NITE UTEENS TO U20S. HIGHS TUE IN THE 30S. LOWS TUE NIGHT
IN THE 20S TO NR 30.

YET ANTHR MOIST SRN STREAM SYSTM PROGGED TO COME OUT OF THE GULF
COAST STATES AND MOVE NE ALONG THE SERN COAST WED. THIS SYSTM BEARS
WATCHING AS THE COLD AIR MAY BE HARDER TO DISLODGE. WENT WITH CHC
POPS (LIQUID) FOR NOW WITH HIGHS 40-45.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES (SOME HIGH CIRRUS) WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
AS OF 12Z. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE LATER TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ALONG
WITH AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS...SKIES GENLY BECOMING BKN/OVC
BY 18Z BUT CIGS REMAIN 10-15K FT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA ALONG AND N OF A RIC-SBY LINE...AND PERHAPS
PCPN ENDING AS A MIX OF -RASN AT SBY. CIGS WILL AVG 5-10 K FT. A
GUSTY NW WIND IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT (MAYBE AS
HIGH AS 35 KT AT KSBY) AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.
THAT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY...WITH A MORE MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTING THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED SCA`S THROUGH 10 AM FOR NC COASTAL WATERS...OTHERWISE ALL
HEADLINES HAVE ENDED IN THE NEAR TERM.

ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF "SUB SCA" CONDITIONS TODAY BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. N WINDS BECOME RATHER LIGHT BY
MID-LATE MORNING...THEN SHIFT TO THE SSE THIS AFTN AND EVENTUALLY
THE SSW TONIGHT. HAVE RAISED SCA HEADLINES OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE MARINE AREA LATER THIS EVENING AS SSW WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT.

STILL...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT EVENT COMES FRI/FRI NIGHT IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT AS VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL BRING OPTIMAL MIXING
IN WHAT WILL ALREADY BE A STRONG GRADIENT WIND. HAVE RAISED GALE
WARNINGS FOR MOST OF THE REGION...WITH STRONG SCA`S EXPECTED FOR
THE UPPER JAMES AND CURRITUCK SOUND. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST TO
35-40 KT ACRS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND THE BAY...WITH 40-45
KT OVER COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND. RAPPAHANNOCK/YORK
AND LOWER JAMES WILL BE MORE MARGINAL FOR GALES BUT DECIDED TO GO
FOR IT DUE TO THE OPTIMAL MIXING SCENARIO AND 900 MB WINDS PROGGED
TO BE CLOSE TO 40 KT. GIVEN TMPS FALLING BLO 30 DEGREES...FREEZING
SPRAY REMAINS IN FORECAST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZING SPRAY
ADVSRY ACROSS NRN CSTL WTRS WHERE AIR TMPS IN THE L20S ARE XPCTD.
SEAS/WAVES QUICKLY INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE GUSTY WINDS. SEAS
AVG 7-10 FT WITH BAY WAVES 4-6 FT DURING THIS PERIOD.

CNDTNS BEGIN TO IMPROVE SAT AFTN/NIGHT AS THE CANADIAN HIGH TRACKS OVR
THE RGN. NXT SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE SUN INTO MON. WILL LIKELY SEE ANTHR ROUND OF SCA`S
WITH THIS SYSTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ630>632-634>636-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR ANZ633-637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ630-631-650-652.
     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652-654.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...LKB/DAP
MARINE...LKB/MPR






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291122
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
622 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CROSSING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE UPPER OHIO REGION TODAY AND SNOW EARLY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
620 AM...FORECAST STILL IN DECENT SHAPE. PRECIP TIMING STILL LOOKS
GOOD...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO SEE IF IT IS A HAIR FASTER OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. MINOR CHANGES TO GRIDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF FRONT AND THE STRONG WAA AS WELL. THE KEY
IS WHAT WILL THE SURFACE TEMPS DO. MODELS ARE INDICATING A SLOW
RESPONSE TO THE WAA AT THE SURFACE BUT I HAVE MY DOUBTS THAT IT
WILL BE FAST ENOUGH TO PREVENT SOME ICING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EVENT. BECAUSE OF THIS...A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
OVER MOST OF MY OHIO ZONES. THERE ARE A LOT OF FACTORS AT PLAY
HERE WHICH MAKES THIS A VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST. FIRST ALOFT. ALL
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRONG SURGE OF WARMER AIR ENVELOPING MY
ENTIRE CWA TODAY. THIS SHOWS UP QUIET WELL IN THE THERMAL PATTERN
AT 850MB AND IN THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESS PATTERNS. I HAVE
DECIDED TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS THINKING ON PRECIP
TYPES. THE THING TO WATCH WILL BE HOW THE ATMOSPHERE RESPONDS ONCE
THE PRECIP BEGINS AND THE WET BULBING EFFECTS COME INTO PLAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A PROFILE VERY CLOSE TO THE 0 DEGREE LINE
WHICH WILL KEEP THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LIQUID OR FROZEN VERY
CLOSE. AT THE SURFACE. MODELS DO SHOW SURFACE TEMPS RISING QUICKLY
AS THE PRECIP APPROACHES. HOWEVER...MY CONCERN IS THAT WITH SUCH
COLD DEWPOINTS AT THE SURFACE...WET BULBING WILL ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN...AT LEAST IN OHIO AT THE ONSET OF THE
EVENT. OTHER FACTORS THAT NEED TO BE CONSIDERED ARE THE WIDESPREAD
SNOW PACK AND LOCALIZED EFFECTS...MAINLY SHELTERED AREAS WHERE
TEMPS WILL TAKE LONGER TO RECOVER. AS THE LINE OF PRECIPITATION
MOVES EASTWARD THIS MORNING...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE
CLOSELY MONITORED.

MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE
FRONT SWINGS INTO CENTRAL PA. THE ONSET OF CAA WILL BE RIGHT
BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERMAL PROFILES QUICKLY BECOME MORE UNSTABLE TONIGHT. COLD
ADVECTION BEGINS IN EARNEST ALOFT AS TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE
SET TO CROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL OCCUR
SIMULTANEOUSLY TO THE DRIER AIR COMING IN...HOWEVER THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH LAYER LOOKS TO CRASH TOWARD THE SURFACE TONIGHT IN THE
RIDGES...WELL BEFORE THE MOISTURE PEELS OFF. CONSENSUS SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS FROM THE NAM AND GFS VIA BUFKIT SUGGEST AROUND 25 TO
1 BEGIN OVERNIGHT. GIVEN INSTABILITY AND UNIDIRECTIONAL
UPSLOPE...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN VERY EFFICIENT SNOW GROWTH. MODEL
QPF IS GENERALLY ONLY A COUPLE OF TENTHS...AND GIVEN ICE COVER
UPSTREAM ON LAKE ERIE...A TON OF QPF IS VERY UNLIKELY.
HOWEVER...EVEN LIGHT QPF IN THIS CASE IS LIKELY TO ADD UP TO
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. GIVEN THAT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY
THERE COULD BE AN INCH OR SO IN SOME OF THE SHELTERED HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND ANOTHER 2 TO 5 SEEM LIKELY IN THE UPSLOPE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC HELP VIA TWO ADDITIONAL WAVES
CROSSING THE AREA...3 TO 6 INCH TOTALS SEEM REASONABLE IN THE
RIDGES BY FRIDAY MORNING. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE EXPANDED
TO ACCOMMODATE THIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH LEVELS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PARTICULARLY WITH THE
SYSTEM THAT COULD AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME
FRAME. FOR NOW...CONSISTENCY WILL BE THE NAME OF THE GAME UNTIL
THE MODELS PROVIDE A BETTER PICTURE. COLD PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HANGING ON TO VFR CONDITIONS AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH
MID CLOUDS INVADING...BUT THIS WILL START TO CHANGE SOON.
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO MOVE IN AFTER 14Z ASSOCIATED WITH GREAT
LAKES LOW. STILL LOOKING AT BEST FZRA POSSIBILITIES AT
ZZV...FKL...AND DUJ. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA AT
HLG AND PIT/AGC...BUT STILL UNCERTAIN ENOUGH TO NOT INCLUDE YET.
OTHERWISE...RA OR A RA/SN MIX.  FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
THROUGH MVFR LATER THIS MORNING/MIDDAY TO IFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH AFTER 00Z CHANGING ALL PRECIP
TO SNOW WITH CONTINUED IFR CONDITIONS...WITH ZZV/MGW CLINGING TO
MVFR. SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TOWARDS 12Z AT WESTERN TERMINALS AS MORE
OF A NW FLOW/UPSLOPE PATTERN TAKES HOLD. CL

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS ARRIVES SUNDAY WITH NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR OHZ039>041-
     048>050-057>059.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR PAZ007>009-015-016-023-074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR WVZ023-041.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291122
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
622 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CROSSING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE UPPER OHIO REGION TODAY AND SNOW EARLY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
620 AM...FORECAST STILL IN DECENT SHAPE. PRECIP TIMING STILL LOOKS
GOOD...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO SEE IF IT IS A HAIR FASTER OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. MINOR CHANGES TO GRIDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF FRONT AND THE STRONG WAA AS WELL. THE KEY
IS WHAT WILL THE SURFACE TEMPS DO. MODELS ARE INDICATING A SLOW
RESPONSE TO THE WAA AT THE SURFACE BUT I HAVE MY DOUBTS THAT IT
WILL BE FAST ENOUGH TO PREVENT SOME ICING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EVENT. BECAUSE OF THIS...A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
OVER MOST OF MY OHIO ZONES. THERE ARE A LOT OF FACTORS AT PLAY
HERE WHICH MAKES THIS A VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST. FIRST ALOFT. ALL
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRONG SURGE OF WARMER AIR ENVELOPING MY
ENTIRE CWA TODAY. THIS SHOWS UP QUIET WELL IN THE THERMAL PATTERN
AT 850MB AND IN THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESS PATTERNS. I HAVE
DECIDED TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS THINKING ON PRECIP
TYPES. THE THING TO WATCH WILL BE HOW THE ATMOSPHERE RESPONDS ONCE
THE PRECIP BEGINS AND THE WET BULBING EFFECTS COME INTO PLAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A PROFILE VERY CLOSE TO THE 0 DEGREE LINE
WHICH WILL KEEP THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LIQUID OR FROZEN VERY
CLOSE. AT THE SURFACE. MODELS DO SHOW SURFACE TEMPS RISING QUICKLY
AS THE PRECIP APPROACHES. HOWEVER...MY CONCERN IS THAT WITH SUCH
COLD DEWPOINTS AT THE SURFACE...WET BULBING WILL ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN...AT LEAST IN OHIO AT THE ONSET OF THE
EVENT. OTHER FACTORS THAT NEED TO BE CONSIDERED ARE THE WIDESPREAD
SNOW PACK AND LOCALIZED EFFECTS...MAINLY SHELTERED AREAS WHERE
TEMPS WILL TAKE LONGER TO RECOVER. AS THE LINE OF PRECIPITATION
MOVES EASTWARD THIS MORNING...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE
CLOSELY MONITORED.

MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE
FRONT SWINGS INTO CENTRAL PA. THE ONSET OF CAA WILL BE RIGHT
BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERMAL PROFILES QUICKLY BECOME MORE UNSTABLE TONIGHT. COLD
ADVECTION BEGINS IN EARNEST ALOFT AS TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE
SET TO CROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL OCCUR
SIMULTANEOUSLY TO THE DRIER AIR COMING IN...HOWEVER THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH LAYER LOOKS TO CRASH TOWARD THE SURFACE TONIGHT IN THE
RIDGES...WELL BEFORE THE MOISTURE PEELS OFF. CONSENSUS SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS FROM THE NAM AND GFS VIA BUFKIT SUGGEST AROUND 25 TO
1 BEGIN OVERNIGHT. GIVEN INSTABILITY AND UNIDIRECTIONAL
UPSLOPE...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN VERY EFFICIENT SNOW GROWTH. MODEL
QPF IS GENERALLY ONLY A COUPLE OF TENTHS...AND GIVEN ICE COVER
UPSTREAM ON LAKE ERIE...A TON OF QPF IS VERY UNLIKELY.
HOWEVER...EVEN LIGHT QPF IN THIS CASE IS LIKELY TO ADD UP TO
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. GIVEN THAT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY
THERE COULD BE AN INCH OR SO IN SOME OF THE SHELTERED HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND ANOTHER 2 TO 5 SEEM LIKELY IN THE UPSLOPE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC HELP VIA TWO ADDITIONAL WAVES
CROSSING THE AREA...3 TO 6 INCH TOTALS SEEM REASONABLE IN THE
RIDGES BY FRIDAY MORNING. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE EXPANDED
TO ACCOMMODATE THIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH LEVELS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PARTICULARLY WITH THE
SYSTEM THAT COULD AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME
FRAME. FOR NOW...CONSISTENCY WILL BE THE NAME OF THE GAME UNTIL
THE MODELS PROVIDE A BETTER PICTURE. COLD PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HANGING ON TO VFR CONDITIONS AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH
MID CLOUDS INVADING...BUT THIS WILL START TO CHANGE SOON.
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO MOVE IN AFTER 14Z ASSOCIATED WITH GREAT
LAKES LOW. STILL LOOKING AT BEST FZRA POSSIBILITIES AT
ZZV...FKL...AND DUJ. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA AT
HLG AND PIT/AGC...BUT STILL UNCERTAIN ENOUGH TO NOT INCLUDE YET.
OTHERWISE...RA OR A RA/SN MIX.  FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
THROUGH MVFR LATER THIS MORNING/MIDDAY TO IFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH AFTER 00Z CHANGING ALL PRECIP
TO SNOW WITH CONTINUED IFR CONDITIONS...WITH ZZV/MGW CLINGING TO
MVFR. SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TOWARDS 12Z AT WESTERN TERMINALS AS MORE
OF A NW FLOW/UPSLOPE PATTERN TAKES HOLD. CL

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS ARRIVES SUNDAY WITH NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR OHZ039>041-
     048>050-057>059.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR PAZ007>009-015-016-023-074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR WVZ023-041.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291122
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
622 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CROSSING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE UPPER OHIO REGION TODAY AND SNOW EARLY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
620 AM...FORECAST STILL IN DECENT SHAPE. PRECIP TIMING STILL LOOKS
GOOD...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO SEE IF IT IS A HAIR FASTER OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. MINOR CHANGES TO GRIDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF FRONT AND THE STRONG WAA AS WELL. THE KEY
IS WHAT WILL THE SURFACE TEMPS DO. MODELS ARE INDICATING A SLOW
RESPONSE TO THE WAA AT THE SURFACE BUT I HAVE MY DOUBTS THAT IT
WILL BE FAST ENOUGH TO PREVENT SOME ICING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EVENT. BECAUSE OF THIS...A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
OVER MOST OF MY OHIO ZONES. THERE ARE A LOT OF FACTORS AT PLAY
HERE WHICH MAKES THIS A VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST. FIRST ALOFT. ALL
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRONG SURGE OF WARMER AIR ENVELOPING MY
ENTIRE CWA TODAY. THIS SHOWS UP QUIET WELL IN THE THERMAL PATTERN
AT 850MB AND IN THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESS PATTERNS. I HAVE
DECIDED TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS THINKING ON PRECIP
TYPES. THE THING TO WATCH WILL BE HOW THE ATMOSPHERE RESPONDS ONCE
THE PRECIP BEGINS AND THE WET BULBING EFFECTS COME INTO PLAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A PROFILE VERY CLOSE TO THE 0 DEGREE LINE
WHICH WILL KEEP THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LIQUID OR FROZEN VERY
CLOSE. AT THE SURFACE. MODELS DO SHOW SURFACE TEMPS RISING QUICKLY
AS THE PRECIP APPROACHES. HOWEVER...MY CONCERN IS THAT WITH SUCH
COLD DEWPOINTS AT THE SURFACE...WET BULBING WILL ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN...AT LEAST IN OHIO AT THE ONSET OF THE
EVENT. OTHER FACTORS THAT NEED TO BE CONSIDERED ARE THE WIDESPREAD
SNOW PACK AND LOCALIZED EFFECTS...MAINLY SHELTERED AREAS WHERE
TEMPS WILL TAKE LONGER TO RECOVER. AS THE LINE OF PRECIPITATION
MOVES EASTWARD THIS MORNING...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE
CLOSELY MONITORED.

MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE
FRONT SWINGS INTO CENTRAL PA. THE ONSET OF CAA WILL BE RIGHT
BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERMAL PROFILES QUICKLY BECOME MORE UNSTABLE TONIGHT. COLD
ADVECTION BEGINS IN EARNEST ALOFT AS TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE
SET TO CROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL OCCUR
SIMULTANEOUSLY TO THE DRIER AIR COMING IN...HOWEVER THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH LAYER LOOKS TO CRASH TOWARD THE SURFACE TONIGHT IN THE
RIDGES...WELL BEFORE THE MOISTURE PEELS OFF. CONSENSUS SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS FROM THE NAM AND GFS VIA BUFKIT SUGGEST AROUND 25 TO
1 BEGIN OVERNIGHT. GIVEN INSTABILITY AND UNIDIRECTIONAL
UPSLOPE...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN VERY EFFICIENT SNOW GROWTH. MODEL
QPF IS GENERALLY ONLY A COUPLE OF TENTHS...AND GIVEN ICE COVER
UPSTREAM ON LAKE ERIE...A TON OF QPF IS VERY UNLIKELY.
HOWEVER...EVEN LIGHT QPF IN THIS CASE IS LIKELY TO ADD UP TO
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. GIVEN THAT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY
THERE COULD BE AN INCH OR SO IN SOME OF THE SHELTERED HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND ANOTHER 2 TO 5 SEEM LIKELY IN THE UPSLOPE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC HELP VIA TWO ADDITIONAL WAVES
CROSSING THE AREA...3 TO 6 INCH TOTALS SEEM REASONABLE IN THE
RIDGES BY FRIDAY MORNING. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE EXPANDED
TO ACCOMMODATE THIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH LEVELS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PARTICULARLY WITH THE
SYSTEM THAT COULD AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME
FRAME. FOR NOW...CONSISTENCY WILL BE THE NAME OF THE GAME UNTIL
THE MODELS PROVIDE A BETTER PICTURE. COLD PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HANGING ON TO VFR CONDITIONS AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH
MID CLOUDS INVADING...BUT THIS WILL START TO CHANGE SOON.
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO MOVE IN AFTER 14Z ASSOCIATED WITH GREAT
LAKES LOW. STILL LOOKING AT BEST FZRA POSSIBILITIES AT
ZZV...FKL...AND DUJ. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA AT
HLG AND PIT/AGC...BUT STILL UNCERTAIN ENOUGH TO NOT INCLUDE YET.
OTHERWISE...RA OR A RA/SN MIX.  FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
THROUGH MVFR LATER THIS MORNING/MIDDAY TO IFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH AFTER 00Z CHANGING ALL PRECIP
TO SNOW WITH CONTINUED IFR CONDITIONS...WITH ZZV/MGW CLINGING TO
MVFR. SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TOWARDS 12Z AT WESTERN TERMINALS AS MORE
OF A NW FLOW/UPSLOPE PATTERN TAKES HOLD. CL

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS ARRIVES SUNDAY WITH NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR OHZ039>041-
     048>050-057>059.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR PAZ007>009-015-016-023-074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR WVZ023-041.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291122
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
622 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CROSSING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE UPPER OHIO REGION TODAY AND SNOW EARLY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
620 AM...FORECAST STILL IN DECENT SHAPE. PRECIP TIMING STILL LOOKS
GOOD...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO SEE IF IT IS A HAIR FASTER OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. MINOR CHANGES TO GRIDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF FRONT AND THE STRONG WAA AS WELL. THE KEY
IS WHAT WILL THE SURFACE TEMPS DO. MODELS ARE INDICATING A SLOW
RESPONSE TO THE WAA AT THE SURFACE BUT I HAVE MY DOUBTS THAT IT
WILL BE FAST ENOUGH TO PREVENT SOME ICING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EVENT. BECAUSE OF THIS...A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
OVER MOST OF MY OHIO ZONES. THERE ARE A LOT OF FACTORS AT PLAY
HERE WHICH MAKES THIS A VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST. FIRST ALOFT. ALL
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRONG SURGE OF WARMER AIR ENVELOPING MY
ENTIRE CWA TODAY. THIS SHOWS UP QUIET WELL IN THE THERMAL PATTERN
AT 850MB AND IN THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESS PATTERNS. I HAVE
DECIDED TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS THINKING ON PRECIP
TYPES. THE THING TO WATCH WILL BE HOW THE ATMOSPHERE RESPONDS ONCE
THE PRECIP BEGINS AND THE WET BULBING EFFECTS COME INTO PLAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A PROFILE VERY CLOSE TO THE 0 DEGREE LINE
WHICH WILL KEEP THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LIQUID OR FROZEN VERY
CLOSE. AT THE SURFACE. MODELS DO SHOW SURFACE TEMPS RISING QUICKLY
AS THE PRECIP APPROACHES. HOWEVER...MY CONCERN IS THAT WITH SUCH
COLD DEWPOINTS AT THE SURFACE...WET BULBING WILL ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN...AT LEAST IN OHIO AT THE ONSET OF THE
EVENT. OTHER FACTORS THAT NEED TO BE CONSIDERED ARE THE WIDESPREAD
SNOW PACK AND LOCALIZED EFFECTS...MAINLY SHELTERED AREAS WHERE
TEMPS WILL TAKE LONGER TO RECOVER. AS THE LINE OF PRECIPITATION
MOVES EASTWARD THIS MORNING...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE
CLOSELY MONITORED.

MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE
FRONT SWINGS INTO CENTRAL PA. THE ONSET OF CAA WILL BE RIGHT
BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERMAL PROFILES QUICKLY BECOME MORE UNSTABLE TONIGHT. COLD
ADVECTION BEGINS IN EARNEST ALOFT AS TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE
SET TO CROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL OCCUR
SIMULTANEOUSLY TO THE DRIER AIR COMING IN...HOWEVER THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH LAYER LOOKS TO CRASH TOWARD THE SURFACE TONIGHT IN THE
RIDGES...WELL BEFORE THE MOISTURE PEELS OFF. CONSENSUS SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS FROM THE NAM AND GFS VIA BUFKIT SUGGEST AROUND 25 TO
1 BEGIN OVERNIGHT. GIVEN INSTABILITY AND UNIDIRECTIONAL
UPSLOPE...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN VERY EFFICIENT SNOW GROWTH. MODEL
QPF IS GENERALLY ONLY A COUPLE OF TENTHS...AND GIVEN ICE COVER
UPSTREAM ON LAKE ERIE...A TON OF QPF IS VERY UNLIKELY.
HOWEVER...EVEN LIGHT QPF IN THIS CASE IS LIKELY TO ADD UP TO
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. GIVEN THAT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY
THERE COULD BE AN INCH OR SO IN SOME OF THE SHELTERED HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND ANOTHER 2 TO 5 SEEM LIKELY IN THE UPSLOPE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC HELP VIA TWO ADDITIONAL WAVES
CROSSING THE AREA...3 TO 6 INCH TOTALS SEEM REASONABLE IN THE
RIDGES BY FRIDAY MORNING. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE EXPANDED
TO ACCOMMODATE THIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH LEVELS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PARTICULARLY WITH THE
SYSTEM THAT COULD AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME
FRAME. FOR NOW...CONSISTENCY WILL BE THE NAME OF THE GAME UNTIL
THE MODELS PROVIDE A BETTER PICTURE. COLD PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HANGING ON TO VFR CONDITIONS AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH
MID CLOUDS INVADING...BUT THIS WILL START TO CHANGE SOON.
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO MOVE IN AFTER 14Z ASSOCIATED WITH GREAT
LAKES LOW. STILL LOOKING AT BEST FZRA POSSIBILITIES AT
ZZV...FKL...AND DUJ. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA AT
HLG AND PIT/AGC...BUT STILL UNCERTAIN ENOUGH TO NOT INCLUDE YET.
OTHERWISE...RA OR A RA/SN MIX.  FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
THROUGH MVFR LATER THIS MORNING/MIDDAY TO IFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH AFTER 00Z CHANGING ALL PRECIP
TO SNOW WITH CONTINUED IFR CONDITIONS...WITH ZZV/MGW CLINGING TO
MVFR. SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TOWARDS 12Z AT WESTERN TERMINALS AS MORE
OF A NW FLOW/UPSLOPE PATTERN TAKES HOLD. CL

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS ARRIVES SUNDAY WITH NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR OHZ039>041-
     048>050-057>059.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR PAZ007>009-015-016-023-074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR WVZ023-041.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290932
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
432 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS
TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES WILL
AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE SSE THROUGH
THE DAY AS ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES AND
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST U.S. TODAY. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTN AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP BTWN THE HIGH SHIFTING SSE AND THE APPROACHING CLIPPER
SYSTEM. THE MIXING SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES WEST...WITH HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EAST. OVERALL
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S (LOW-MID 40S NRN NECK AND
MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGH CLOUDS BTWN 15-20KFT WILL ALSO INCREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND MAY HAMPER TEMPS FROM
WARMING ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO BUT EXPECT MIXING TO OVERCOME THIS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA.

A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM. AT THE ONSET...PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING NORTH OF RICHMOND FROM
ROUGHLY LOUISA TO SALISBURY AND THEN SHIFT OVER THE MD LOWER
EASTERN SHORE THIS EVENING BEFORE LIFTING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS BEGIN AROUND 6KFT AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN. THERE IS A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIFT THROUGH THE BOTTOM PORTIONS OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
(00-03Z)...THEREFORE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SLEET BRIEFLY
MIXING WITH RAIN OVER THE NRN NECK/MD EASTERN SHORE AFTER DARK.
PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END LATE IN THE EVENING AS BEST
MOISTURE/ENERGY LIFTS NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BE VERY LIMITED WITH QPF AMTS NO HIGHER THAN
0.03 INCHES AT BEST. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS CENTERED AROUND
06Z (1 AM) AND IS EXPECTED TO BE OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK. COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND DRYING ALOFT WILL COMMENCE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
UNSTABLE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW WLY WINDS TO REMAIN
BREEZY OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S NW TO UPPER 30S
FAR SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL BE A COLD BRISK DAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS A
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING IN
A VERY TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. GUSTY NW WINDS OF 30-35 MPH
WILL DEVELOP BY MID MORNING AND PERSIST INTO FRI EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVER INLAND AREAS. CLOSER TO THE COAST...WINDS MAY
GUST UP TO 40 MPH AT TIMES DURING THE DAY AND THEN REMAIN GUSTY TO
AROUND 30 MPH FRI NIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE IN FULL FORCE
FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL DESPITE THE WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE LOW-MID 40S (UPPER 30S NRN NECK AND MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). LOW
FRI NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS NORTH AND WEST OF RICHMOND...
LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE...UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE COMBINATION OF
WIND AND COLD TEMPS WILL KEEP WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S DURING THE DAY FRI...AND FROM 5-15 DEGREES FRI NIGHT.

THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
SAT/SAT NIGHT WITH A CONTINUATION OF COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S MOST AREAS...UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST FROM
THE NRN NECK TO VIRGINIA BEACH...AND IN THE LOW-MID 30S MD/VA
EASTERN SHORE. NW WINDS REMAIN BREEZY ALONG THE COAST ON SAT WITH
GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH AND WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM THE
MID-UPPER 30S SW TO LOW-MID 20S NE. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE 20S WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM SW TO NE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TIMING DIFFERENCES ALONG WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT 12Z MODEL CHANGES
MAKES THIS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST SUN INTO MON. GFS MUCH FASTER
IN BRINGING PCPN ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC RGN SUNDAY THAN BOTH THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN. THE QUICKER GFS SOLN WOULD LEAD TO P-TYPE ISSUES
ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS SUNDAY WHILE THE SLOWER SOLNS WUD MAINLY BE
RAIN (OR A RAIN WET SNOW MIX ACROSS THE NORTH) IN THE AFTN.
CONVERSELY...THE GFS IS QUICKER TO END PCPN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE SLOWER SOLNS KEEP PCPN GOING FOR THE BETTER PART OF MON WITH
COLDER AIR OOZING SOUTH.

WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...TRIED TO BLEND THE FORECAST AS MUCH AS PSBL
KNOWING THAT LATER MODEL RUNS SHOULD SHED BETTER LIGHT ON THE SYSTM.
DRY AND COLD SAT NIGHT WITH INCRG CLDNS. LOWS IN THE 20S XCPT L30S
SERN CSTL AREAS. KEPT A BIT OF FCST CONTINUITY AND BROUGHT LOW CHC
POPS ACROSS WRN CNTYS SUNDAY MORNING. THICKNESSES SUGGEST SOME SLEET
PSBL AT THE START ACROSS NWRN MOST CNTYS WITH RAIN OVRSPRDG THE FA
SUNDAY AFTN AS THE LOW PRS TRACKS ACROSS NRN VA. HIGHS IN THE 40S
AS THE COLD AIR LURKS JUST NORTH OF THE FA. LIKELY RAIN SUNDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE FA...BUT LWRD TO CHC POPS AFTR MIDNIGHT. KEPT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS LATE AS THE PCPN ENDS. ANY P TYPE
ISSUES WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH CAN
COME SOUTH BEFORE PCPN ENDS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO NR 40
ACROSS NC NE CNTYS NR THE ALBEMARLE SND.

SPLIT MONDAYS FCST UP INTO 2 SEGMENTS AS WELL. CHC RAIN ALONG AND
EAST OF I-95 IN THE MORNING...DRYING IT OUT IN THE AFTN AS THE
TRAILING FRNT CLRS THE COAST. COULD EVEN SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
THE LWR MD ERN SHORE ERLY MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE U30S N TO M-U40S S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT THRU TUES NIGHT.
LOWS MON NITE UTEENS TO U20S. HIGHS TUE IN THE 30S. LOWS TUE NIGHT
IN THE 20S TO NR 30.

YET ANTHR MOIST SRN STREAM SYSTM PROGGED TO COME OUT OF THE GULF
COAST STATES AND MOVE NE ALONG THE SERN COAST WED. THIS SYSTM BEARS
WATCHING AS THE COLD AIR MAY BE HARDER TO DISLODGE. WENT WITH CHC
POPS (LIQUID) FOR NOW WITH HIGHS 40-45.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AS OF 06Z. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE LATER TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ALONG WITH AN INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS...SKIES GENLY BECOMING BKN/OVC BY 15Z BUT CIGS
REMAIN 10-15K FT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA ALONG AND N OF A RIC-SBY LINE...AND PERHAPS
PCPN ENDING AS A MIX OF -RASN AT SBY. A GUSTY NW WIND IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. THAT AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH A MORE MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED SCA`S THROUGH 7 AM FOR NC COASTAL WATERS...OTHERWISE ALL
HEADLINES HAVE ENDED.

ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF "SUB SCA" CONDITIONS TODAY BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. N WINDS BECOME RATHER LIGHT BY
MID-LATE MORNING...THEN SHIFT TO THE SSE THIS AFTN AND EVENTUALLY
THE SSW TONIGHT. HAVE RAISED SCA HEADLINES OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE MARINE AREA LATER THIS EVENING AS SSW WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT.

STILL...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT EVENT COMES FRI/FRI NIGHT IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT AS VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL BRING OPTIMAL MIXING
IN WHAT WILL ALREADY BE A STRONG GRADIENT WIND. HAVE RAISED GALE
WARNINGS FOR MOST OF THE REGION...WITH STRONG SCA`S EXPECTED FOR
THE UPPER JAMES AND CURRITUCK SOUND. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST TO
35-40 KT ACRS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND THE BAY...WITH 40-45
KT OVER COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND. RAPPAHANNOCK/YORK
AND LOWER JAMES WILL BE MORE MARGINAL FOR GALES BUT DECIDED TO GO
FOR IT DUE TO THE OPTIMAL MIXING SCENARIO AND 900 MB WINDS PROGGED
TO BE CLOSE TO 40 KT. GIVEN TMPS FALLING BLO 30 DEGREES...FREEZING
SPRAY REMAINS IN FORECAST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZING SPRAY
ADVSRY ACROSS NRN CSTL WTRS WHERE AIR TMPS IN THE L20S ARE XPCTD.
SEAS/WAVES QUICKLY INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE GUSTY WINDS. SEAS
AVG 7-10 FT WITH BAY WAVES 4-6 FT DURING THIS PERIOD.

CNDTNS BEGIN TO IMPROVE SAT AFTN/NIGHT AS THE CANADIAN HIGH TRACKS OVR
THE RGN. NXT SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE SUN INTO MON. WILL LIKELY SEE ANTHR ROUND OF SCA`S
WITH THIS SYSTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ630>632-634>636-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR ANZ633-637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ630-631-650-652.
     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652-654.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...LKB/DAP
MARINE...LKB






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290932
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
432 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS
TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES WILL
AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE SSE THROUGH
THE DAY AS ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES AND
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST U.S. TODAY. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTN AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP BTWN THE HIGH SHIFTING SSE AND THE APPROACHING CLIPPER
SYSTEM. THE MIXING SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES WEST...WITH HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EAST. OVERALL
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S (LOW-MID 40S NRN NECK AND
MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGH CLOUDS BTWN 15-20KFT WILL ALSO INCREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND MAY HAMPER TEMPS FROM
WARMING ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO BUT EXPECT MIXING TO OVERCOME THIS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA.

A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM. AT THE ONSET...PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING NORTH OF RICHMOND FROM
ROUGHLY LOUISA TO SALISBURY AND THEN SHIFT OVER THE MD LOWER
EASTERN SHORE THIS EVENING BEFORE LIFTING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS BEGIN AROUND 6KFT AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN. THERE IS A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIFT THROUGH THE BOTTOM PORTIONS OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
(00-03Z)...THEREFORE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SLEET BRIEFLY
MIXING WITH RAIN OVER THE NRN NECK/MD EASTERN SHORE AFTER DARK.
PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END LATE IN THE EVENING AS BEST
MOISTURE/ENERGY LIFTS NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BE VERY LIMITED WITH QPF AMTS NO HIGHER THAN
0.03 INCHES AT BEST. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS CENTERED AROUND
06Z (1 AM) AND IS EXPECTED TO BE OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK. COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND DRYING ALOFT WILL COMMENCE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
UNSTABLE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW WLY WINDS TO REMAIN
BREEZY OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S NW TO UPPER 30S
FAR SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL BE A COLD BRISK DAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS A
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING IN
A VERY TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. GUSTY NW WINDS OF 30-35 MPH
WILL DEVELOP BY MID MORNING AND PERSIST INTO FRI EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVER INLAND AREAS. CLOSER TO THE COAST...WINDS MAY
GUST UP TO 40 MPH AT TIMES DURING THE DAY AND THEN REMAIN GUSTY TO
AROUND 30 MPH FRI NIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE IN FULL FORCE
FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL DESPITE THE WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE LOW-MID 40S (UPPER 30S NRN NECK AND MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). LOW
FRI NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS NORTH AND WEST OF RICHMOND...
LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE...UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE COMBINATION OF
WIND AND COLD TEMPS WILL KEEP WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S DURING THE DAY FRI...AND FROM 5-15 DEGREES FRI NIGHT.

THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
SAT/SAT NIGHT WITH A CONTINUATION OF COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S MOST AREAS...UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST FROM
THE NRN NECK TO VIRGINIA BEACH...AND IN THE LOW-MID 30S MD/VA
EASTERN SHORE. NW WINDS REMAIN BREEZY ALONG THE COAST ON SAT WITH
GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH AND WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM THE
MID-UPPER 30S SW TO LOW-MID 20S NE. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE 20S WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM SW TO NE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TIMING DIFFERENCES ALONG WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT 12Z MODEL CHANGES
MAKES THIS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST SUN INTO MON. GFS MUCH FASTER
IN BRINGING PCPN ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC RGN SUNDAY THAN BOTH THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN. THE QUICKER GFS SOLN WOULD LEAD TO P-TYPE ISSUES
ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS SUNDAY WHILE THE SLOWER SOLNS WUD MAINLY BE
RAIN (OR A RAIN WET SNOW MIX ACROSS THE NORTH) IN THE AFTN.
CONVERSELY...THE GFS IS QUICKER TO END PCPN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE SLOWER SOLNS KEEP PCPN GOING FOR THE BETTER PART OF MON WITH
COLDER AIR OOZING SOUTH.

WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...TRIED TO BLEND THE FORECAST AS MUCH AS PSBL
KNOWING THAT LATER MODEL RUNS SHOULD SHED BETTER LIGHT ON THE SYSTM.
DRY AND COLD SAT NIGHT WITH INCRG CLDNS. LOWS IN THE 20S XCPT L30S
SERN CSTL AREAS. KEPT A BIT OF FCST CONTINUITY AND BROUGHT LOW CHC
POPS ACROSS WRN CNTYS SUNDAY MORNING. THICKNESSES SUGGEST SOME SLEET
PSBL AT THE START ACROSS NWRN MOST CNTYS WITH RAIN OVRSPRDG THE FA
SUNDAY AFTN AS THE LOW PRS TRACKS ACROSS NRN VA. HIGHS IN THE 40S
AS THE COLD AIR LURKS JUST NORTH OF THE FA. LIKELY RAIN SUNDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE FA...BUT LWRD TO CHC POPS AFTR MIDNIGHT. KEPT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS LATE AS THE PCPN ENDS. ANY P TYPE
ISSUES WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH CAN
COME SOUTH BEFORE PCPN ENDS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO NR 40
ACROSS NC NE CNTYS NR THE ALBEMARLE SND.

SPLIT MONDAYS FCST UP INTO 2 SEGMENTS AS WELL. CHC RAIN ALONG AND
EAST OF I-95 IN THE MORNING...DRYING IT OUT IN THE AFTN AS THE
TRAILING FRNT CLRS THE COAST. COULD EVEN SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
THE LWR MD ERN SHORE ERLY MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE U30S N TO M-U40S S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT THRU TUES NIGHT.
LOWS MON NITE UTEENS TO U20S. HIGHS TUE IN THE 30S. LOWS TUE NIGHT
IN THE 20S TO NR 30.

YET ANTHR MOIST SRN STREAM SYSTM PROGGED TO COME OUT OF THE GULF
COAST STATES AND MOVE NE ALONG THE SERN COAST WED. THIS SYSTM BEARS
WATCHING AS THE COLD AIR MAY BE HARDER TO DISLODGE. WENT WITH CHC
POPS (LIQUID) FOR NOW WITH HIGHS 40-45.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AS OF 06Z. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE LATER TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ALONG WITH AN INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS...SKIES GENLY BECOMING BKN/OVC BY 15Z BUT CIGS
REMAIN 10-15K FT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA ALONG AND N OF A RIC-SBY LINE...AND PERHAPS
PCPN ENDING AS A MIX OF -RASN AT SBY. A GUSTY NW WIND IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. THAT AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH A MORE MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED SCA`S THROUGH 7 AM FOR NC COASTAL WATERS...OTHERWISE ALL
HEADLINES HAVE ENDED.

ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF "SUB SCA" CONDITIONS TODAY BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. N WINDS BECOME RATHER LIGHT BY
MID-LATE MORNING...THEN SHIFT TO THE SSE THIS AFTN AND EVENTUALLY
THE SSW TONIGHT. HAVE RAISED SCA HEADLINES OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE MARINE AREA LATER THIS EVENING AS SSW WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT.

STILL...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT EVENT COMES FRI/FRI NIGHT IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT AS VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL BRING OPTIMAL MIXING
IN WHAT WILL ALREADY BE A STRONG GRADIENT WIND. HAVE RAISED GALE
WARNINGS FOR MOST OF THE REGION...WITH STRONG SCA`S EXPECTED FOR
THE UPPER JAMES AND CURRITUCK SOUND. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST TO
35-40 KT ACRS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND THE BAY...WITH 40-45
KT OVER COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND. RAPPAHANNOCK/YORK
AND LOWER JAMES WILL BE MORE MARGINAL FOR GALES BUT DECIDED TO GO
FOR IT DUE TO THE OPTIMAL MIXING SCENARIO AND 900 MB WINDS PROGGED
TO BE CLOSE TO 40 KT. GIVEN TMPS FALLING BLO 30 DEGREES...FREEZING
SPRAY REMAINS IN FORECAST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZING SPRAY
ADVSRY ACROSS NRN CSTL WTRS WHERE AIR TMPS IN THE L20S ARE XPCTD.
SEAS/WAVES QUICKLY INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE GUSTY WINDS. SEAS
AVG 7-10 FT WITH BAY WAVES 4-6 FT DURING THIS PERIOD.

CNDTNS BEGIN TO IMPROVE SAT AFTN/NIGHT AS THE CANADIAN HIGH TRACKS OVR
THE RGN. NXT SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE SUN INTO MON. WILL LIKELY SEE ANTHR ROUND OF SCA`S
WITH THIS SYSTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ630>632-634>636-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR ANZ633-637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ630-631-650-652.
     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652-654.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...LKB/DAP
MARINE...LKB







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290918 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
418 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CROSSING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE UPPER OHIO REGION TODAY AND SNOW EARLY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MODELS ARE COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF FRONT AND THE STRONG WAA AS WELL. THE KEY
IS WHAT WILL THE SURFACE TEMPS DO. MODELS ARE INDICATING A SLOW
RESPONSE TO THE WAA AT THE SURFACE BUT I HAVE MY DOUBTS THAT IT
WILL BE FAST ENOUGH TO PREVENT SOME ICING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EVENT. BECAUSE OF THIS...A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
OVER MOST OF MY OHIO ZONES. THERE ARE A LOT OF FACTORS AT PLAY
HERE WHICH MAKES THIS A VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST. FIRST ALOFT. ALL
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRONG SURGE OF WARMER AIR ENVELOPING MY
ENTIRE CWA TODAY. THIS SHOWS UP QUIET WELL IN THE THERMAL PATTERN
AT 850MB AND IN THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESS PATTERNS. I HAVE
DECIDED TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS THINKING ON PRECIP
TYPES. THE THING TO WATCH WILL BE HOW THE ATMOSPHERE RESPONDS ONCE
THE PRECIP BEGINS AND THE WET BULBING EFFECTS COME INTO PLAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A PROFILE VERY CLOSE TO THE 0 DEGREE LINE
WHICH WILL KEEP THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LIQUID OR FROZEN VERY
CLOSE. AT THE SURFACE. MODELS DO SHOW SURFACE TEMPS RISING QUICKLY
AS THE PRECIP APPROACHES. HOWEVER...MY CONCERN IS THAT WITH SUCH
COLD DEWPOINTS AT THE SURFACE...WET BULBING WILL ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN...AT LEAST IN OHIO AT THE ONSET OF THE
EVENT. OTHER FACTORS THAT NEED TO BE CONSIDERED ARE THE WIDESPREAD
SNOW PACK AND LOCALIZED EFFECTS...MAINLY SHELTERED AREAS WHERE
TEMPS WILL TAKE LONGER TO RECOVER. AS THE LINE OF PRECIPITATION
MOVES EASTWARD THIS MORNING...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE
CLOSELY MONITORED.

MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE
FRONT SWINGS INTO CENTRAL PA. THE ONSET OF CAA WILL BE RIGHT
BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERMAL PROFILES QUICKLY BECOME MORE UNSTABLE TONIGHT. COLD
ADVECTION BEGINS IN EARNEST ALOFT AS TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE
SET TO CROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL OCCUR
SIMULTANEOUSLY TO THE DRIER AIR COMING IN...HOWEVER THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH LAYER LOOKS TO CRASH TOWARD THE SURFACE TONIGHT IN THE
RIDGES...WELL BEFORE THE MOISTURE PEELS OFF. CONSENSUS SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS FROM THE NAM AND GFS VIA BUFKIT SUGGEST AROUND 25 TO
1 BEGIN OVERNIGHT. GIVEN INSTABILITY AND UNIDIRECTIONAL
UPSLOPE...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN VERY EFFICIENT SNOW GROWTH. MODEL
QPF IS GENERALLY ONLY A COUPLE OF TENTHS...AND GIVEN ICE COVER
UPSTREAM ON LAKE ERIE...A TON OF QPF IS VERY UNLIKELY.
HOWEVER...EVEN LIGHT QPF IN THIS CASE IS LIKELY TO ADD UP TO
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. GIVEN THAT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY
THERE COULD BE AN INCH OR SO IN SOME OF THE SHELTERED HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND ANOTHER 2 TO 5 SEEM LIKELY IN THE UPSLOPE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC HELP VIA TWO ADDITIONAL WAVES
CROSSING THE AREA...3 TO 6 INCH TOTALS SEEM REASONABLE IN THE
RIDGES BY FRIDAY MORNING. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE EXPANDED
TO ACCOMMODATE THIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH LEVELS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PARTICULARLY WITH THE
SYSTEM THAT COULD AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME
FRAME. FOR NOW...CONSISTENCY WILL BE THE NAME OF THE GAME UNTIL
THE MODELS PROVIDE A BETTER PICTURE. COLD PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE WITH THICKENING MID/HI CLOUDS.
PRECIPITATION RETURNS AFTER 14Z WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE
NORTH. EXPECT A DROP TO MVFR SOON AFTER PRECIP ONSET...WITH IFR
CIGS TO FOLLOW AT MOST TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PRECIP TYPES ARE THE MAIN DIFFICULTY. STILL THINK BEST CHANCES OF
FZRA WILL LIE IN OHIO AND AT FKL/DUJ DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF
PRECIPITATION. CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA
ANYWHERE SAVE PERHAPS MGW. CHANGOVER TO SNOW WILL OCCUR AFTER 00Z
AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE
SOUTH AROUND MIDDAY AND REMAIN GUSTY AS THEY VEER TOWARDS SW/W
WITH TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR LLWS POSSIBILITIES.  CL

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY THRU ERLY FRI AS A CDFNT EXITS. WDSRPD RSTRNS
ARE LIKELY AGAIN WITH ADVNG LOW PRES SUN AND MON.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EST
     TODAY FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR PAZ007>009-015-016-023-074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR WVZ023-041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290918 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
418 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CROSSING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE UPPER OHIO REGION TODAY AND SNOW EARLY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MODELS ARE COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF FRONT AND THE STRONG WAA AS WELL. THE KEY
IS WHAT WILL THE SURFACE TEMPS DO. MODELS ARE INDICATING A SLOW
RESPONSE TO THE WAA AT THE SURFACE BUT I HAVE MY DOUBTS THAT IT
WILL BE FAST ENOUGH TO PREVENT SOME ICING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EVENT. BECAUSE OF THIS...A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
OVER MOST OF MY OHIO ZONES. THERE ARE A LOT OF FACTORS AT PLAY
HERE WHICH MAKES THIS A VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST. FIRST ALOFT. ALL
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRONG SURGE OF WARMER AIR ENVELOPING MY
ENTIRE CWA TODAY. THIS SHOWS UP QUIET WELL IN THE THERMAL PATTERN
AT 850MB AND IN THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESS PATTERNS. I HAVE
DECIDED TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS THINKING ON PRECIP
TYPES. THE THING TO WATCH WILL BE HOW THE ATMOSPHERE RESPONDS ONCE
THE PRECIP BEGINS AND THE WET BULBING EFFECTS COME INTO PLAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A PROFILE VERY CLOSE TO THE 0 DEGREE LINE
WHICH WILL KEEP THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LIQUID OR FROZEN VERY
CLOSE. AT THE SURFACE. MODELS DO SHOW SURFACE TEMPS RISING QUICKLY
AS THE PRECIP APPROACHES. HOWEVER...MY CONCERN IS THAT WITH SUCH
COLD DEWPOINTS AT THE SURFACE...WET BULBING WILL ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN...AT LEAST IN OHIO AT THE ONSET OF THE
EVENT. OTHER FACTORS THAT NEED TO BE CONSIDERED ARE THE WIDESPREAD
SNOW PACK AND LOCALIZED EFFECTS...MAINLY SHELTERED AREAS WHERE
TEMPS WILL TAKE LONGER TO RECOVER. AS THE LINE OF PRECIPITATION
MOVES EASTWARD THIS MORNING...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE
CLOSELY MONITORED.

MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE
FRONT SWINGS INTO CENTRAL PA. THE ONSET OF CAA WILL BE RIGHT
BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERMAL PROFILES QUICKLY BECOME MORE UNSTABLE TONIGHT. COLD
ADVECTION BEGINS IN EARNEST ALOFT AS TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE
SET TO CROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL OCCUR
SIMULTANEOUSLY TO THE DRIER AIR COMING IN...HOWEVER THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH LAYER LOOKS TO CRASH TOWARD THE SURFACE TONIGHT IN THE
RIDGES...WELL BEFORE THE MOISTURE PEELS OFF. CONSENSUS SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS FROM THE NAM AND GFS VIA BUFKIT SUGGEST AROUND 25 TO
1 BEGIN OVERNIGHT. GIVEN INSTABILITY AND UNIDIRECTIONAL
UPSLOPE...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN VERY EFFICIENT SNOW GROWTH. MODEL
QPF IS GENERALLY ONLY A COUPLE OF TENTHS...AND GIVEN ICE COVER
UPSTREAM ON LAKE ERIE...A TON OF QPF IS VERY UNLIKELY.
HOWEVER...EVEN LIGHT QPF IN THIS CASE IS LIKELY TO ADD UP TO
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. GIVEN THAT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY
THERE COULD BE AN INCH OR SO IN SOME OF THE SHELTERED HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND ANOTHER 2 TO 5 SEEM LIKELY IN THE UPSLOPE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC HELP VIA TWO ADDITIONAL WAVES
CROSSING THE AREA...3 TO 6 INCH TOTALS SEEM REASONABLE IN THE
RIDGES BY FRIDAY MORNING. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE EXPANDED
TO ACCOMMODATE THIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH LEVELS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PARTICULARLY WITH THE
SYSTEM THAT COULD AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME
FRAME. FOR NOW...CONSISTENCY WILL BE THE NAME OF THE GAME UNTIL
THE MODELS PROVIDE A BETTER PICTURE. COLD PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE WITH THICKENING MID/HI CLOUDS.
PRECIPITATION RETURNS AFTER 14Z WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE
NORTH. EXPECT A DROP TO MVFR SOON AFTER PRECIP ONSET...WITH IFR
CIGS TO FOLLOW AT MOST TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PRECIP TYPES ARE THE MAIN DIFFICULTY. STILL THINK BEST CHANCES OF
FZRA WILL LIE IN OHIO AND AT FKL/DUJ DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF
PRECIPITATION. CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA
ANYWHERE SAVE PERHAPS MGW. CHANGOVER TO SNOW WILL OCCUR AFTER 00Z
AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE
SOUTH AROUND MIDDAY AND REMAIN GUSTY AS THEY VEER TOWARDS SW/W
WITH TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR LLWS POSSIBILITIES.  CL

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY THRU ERLY FRI AS A CDFNT EXITS. WDSRPD RSTRNS
ARE LIKELY AGAIN WITH ADVNG LOW PRES SUN AND MON.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EST
     TODAY FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR PAZ007>009-015-016-023-074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR WVZ023-041.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 290917
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
417 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW YORK TONIGHT AND THEN
ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. IT WILL SEND AN ARCTIC
FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
MOST OF THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED BETWEEN THE EAST COAST AND THE
APPALACHIANS. THERE HAS BEEN A FAIRLY LARGE TEMP SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS OF NE PA AND NW NJ WHERE THE HIGH IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND
WINDS WERE CALM. THERE IS ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST FOR A LIGHT NW WIND TO KEEP TEMPS STEADY IN THE UPPER
TEENS/LOWER 20S ACROSS THE DELMARVA, FAR SE PA AND S NJ. HOWEVER,
THESE AREAS HAVE A CHANCE TO COOL SEVERAL MORE DEGREES THRU DAYBREAK
AS THE HIGH BUILDS TOWARD THE COAST.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON WHILE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST TRACKS EASTWARD TOWARD
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES LATE IN THE DAY. AFTER A SUNNY START TO THE
MORNING, HIGH AND MID CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD
OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND LOWER/THICKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TIME OF ARRIVAL FOR THE
PRECIP LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES (MPO-RDG-MQS-ESN
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 4 PM AND 6 PM). NOTE THAT WE DID SPEED UP THE ONSET
AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER AS MODELS OFTEN ARE TOO SLOW WITH THE LEADING
WAA BAND. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT PTYPE STARTING OUT AS SNOW IN PA,
SN/IP IN NE MD/FAR N DELMARVA AND RA/IP TOWARD QUEEN ANNE`S AND
TALBOT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING.
THE INITIAL SHIELD OF PRECIP THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ENTERING OUR FAR
WESTERN ZONES BY THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SPREAD EASTWARD DURING
THE EARLY AND MID EVENING AS A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SWINGS
THRU. PTYPE FROM PHILLY AND POINTS NORTHWARD WILL BE ALL SNOW. A
WARM NOSE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO CAUSE SNOW TO MIX WITH SLEET IN THE
NORTHERN DELMARVA AND THE SOUTHERN MOST LOCATIONS IN NJ. WARMER SFC
TEMPS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MAINLY RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN DE AND
ADJACENT MD ZONES.

POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE HIGHEST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-78
CORRIDOR, WHERE SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE GREATEST AND LESS TRANSITORY
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS EVENT
ARE AROUND 1-2 FOR THESE AREAS. THERE IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY FOR
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ BUT NOT EXPECTING IT TO
BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WINTER WX ADVISORY.

THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER, SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT IN NORTHEAST
PA AND NORTHERN NJ.

WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING TEMPS TO FALL MUCH DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH
CLOUD COVER BLANKETING THE AREA AND A SOUTHWEST WIND AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE ARCTIC FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
BE MOVING AWAY. SCT SNOWS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS JUST AFTER 12Z
WILL REMAIN INTO THE MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. COLD AND WINDY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WITH TEMPS NOT CHANGING MUCH...REMAINING IN
THE LOW 30S NORTH AND MID 30S SOUTH. TEMPS MAY BEGIN TO FALL DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES. WINDS GUSTING TO
25 TO 35 MPH AT TIMES. WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN
POCONOS...TEENS ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF THE AREA AND LOW 20S
ELSEWHERE.

FRI NIGHT THRU SUN MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.
A DRY FCST BUT BITTER COLD TEMPS CONTINUE SAT WITH SOME MODERATION
SUNDAY. HIGHS SAT MOSTLY TEENS (NORTH) AND LOW 20S (SOUTH) WIND
CHILLS MOSTLY SINGLE DIGITS EARLY WITH SUB ZERO FAR NORTH. A WIND
CHILL FLAG MAY BE NEEDED. WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND SRN NJ.

SUN AFTERNOON THRU MONDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
MUCH OF THE AREA. AFTER MORE DISORGANIZED SOLUTIONS FOR THE SYSTEM
WITH THE 12Z WED MODELS...THE 00Z THU OP MODELS HAVE AGAIN SWUNG
BACK TO WETTER SOLUTIONS FOR OUR AREA. GFS...MOVES LOW PRESSURE FROM
THE CAROLINAS UP OFF THE DELMARVA THEN JUST EAST OF 40/70 MONDAY. A
DECENT SWATH OF MODERATE QPF (MOSTLY SNOW) TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. EC...WEAKER LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE CAROLINAS UP WELL EAST
OF THE 40/70 MARK WITH SLOWER DEEPENING. STILL SOME SNOW TO THE
AREA...BUT MUCH LIGHTER AND THE HIGHER TOTALS ARE ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND SRN NJ. CMC...MUCH CLOSER...STRONGER AND VERY WET.
AREAS S/E OF I-95 WOULD CHANGE TO RAIN MON WITH THE CMC SOLUTION.

THERE CAN BE A TENDENCY FOR A NORTHWARD TRACK BIAS WITH SYSTEMS WHEN
A STRONG HIGH IS NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE GFS/CMC MODELS
MAY BE DISPLAYING THIS...SO WE HAVE GONE WITH THE WPC NUMBERS FOR
NOW AND OFFERED THE HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THESE PERIOD. NOT
MUCH OF A CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FCST. WITH THIS WRITTEN...AN
INCREASING CHC FOR AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR SUN NIGHT MONDAY FOR THE
SRN/ERN PARTS OF THE CWA. WE WILL MAKE MENTION OF THIS IN THE HWO
AND ASK USERS TO CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MODELS HAVE YET TO LOCK ON TO A SOLUTION...BUT MAY BE
BEGINNING TO SETTLE...WITH AT LEAST MORE AGREEMENT THAN THIS TIME
LAST NIGHT.

MON NIGHT THRU WED...MORE HIGH PRESSURE WITH COLD TEMPS TUE AND A
BIT WARMER WED. A MOSTLY DRY FCST FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR THIS MRNG AND FIRST PART OF THE AFTN. EXPECT A BAND OF SNOW TO
REACH THE WRN TERMINALS LATE IN THE DAY (RDG AROUND 22Z AND ABE
23Z). VSBYS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR QUICKLY AFTER ONSET OF SNOW.
SNOW MOVES EWD TOWARD THE I-95 TERMINALS BETWEEN 00Z-02Z. THIS
WILL BE A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM, SO ONLY EXPECTING A BRIEF, 3-6 HOUR,
PERIOD OF SNOW. SLEET MAY MIX IN AT ILG/MIV/ACY BUT CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIP MAKING IT TO ACY IS RELATIVELY LOW FOR THIS CLOSE TO THE
EVENT. SNOW MAY LINGER OUT TOWARD ABE-RDG AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING, BECOMING SLY THIS AFTN/EVE AND
SWLY OVERNIGHT 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THRU SUN MORNING...VFR EXPECTED. GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY.
SUN AFTERNOON THRU MONDAY...LOWERING CIGS. SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE. SCA WAS ISSUED FOR
THE COASTAL ZONES, WHICH STARTS AT 11 PM AND CONTINUES THRU THE
OVERNIGHT. WAVES WILL BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT THRU SUN...GALE WARNINGS ISSUED. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE BACK
  TO SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY. FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED.
SUN NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
MON THRU TUE...SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS/SEAS SUBSIDE TUE AFTERNOON.
TUE NIGHT THRU WED...SCA SEAS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290904
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
404 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS
TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES WILL
AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE SSE THROUGH
THE DAY AS ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES AND
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST U.S. TODAY. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTN AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP BTWN THE HIGH SHIFTING SSE AND THE APPROACHING CLIPPER
SYSTEM. THE MIXING SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES WEST...WITH HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EAST. OVERALL
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S (LOW-MID 40S NRN NECK AND
MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGH CLOUDS BTWN 15-20KFT WILL ALSO INCREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND MAY HAMPER TEMPS FROM
WARMING ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO BUT EXPECT MIXING TO OVERCOME THIS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA.

A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM. AT THE ONSET...PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING NORTH OF RICHMOND FROM
ROUGHLY LOUISA TO SALISBURY AND THEN SHIFT OVER THE MD LOWER
EASTERN SHORE THIS EVENING BEFORE LIFTING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS BEGIN AROUND 6KFT AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN. THERE IS A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIFT THROUGH THE BOTTOM PORTIONS OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
(00-03Z)...THEREFORE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SLEET BRIEFLY
MIXING WITH RAIN OVER THE NRN NECK/MD EASTERN SHORE AFTER DARK.
PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END LATE IN THE EVENING AS BEST
MOISTURE/ENERGY LIFTS NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BE VERY LIMITED WITH QPF AMTS NO HIGHER THAN
0.03 INCHES AT BEST. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS CENTERED AROUND
06Z (1 AM) AND IS EXPECTED TO BE OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK. COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND DRYING ALOFT WILL COMMENCE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
UNSTABLE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW WLY WINDS TO REMAIN
BREEZY OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S NW TO UPPER 30S
FAR SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL BE A COLD BRISK DAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS A
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING IN
A VERY TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. GUSTY NW WINDS OF 30-35 MPH
WILL DEVELOP BY MID MORNING AND PERSIST INTO FRI EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVER INLAND AREAS. CLOSER TO THE COAST...WINDS MAY
GUST UP TO 40 MPH AT TIMES DURING THE DAY AND THEN REMAIN GUSTY TO
AROUND 30 MPH FRI NIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE IN FULL FORCE
FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL DESPITE THE WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE LOW-MID 40S (UPPER 30S NRN NECK AND MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). LOW
FRI NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS NORTH AND WEST OF RICHMOND...
LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE...UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE COMBINATION OF
WIND AND COLD TEMPS WILL KEEP WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S DURING THE DAY FRI...AND FROM 5-15 DEGREES FRI NIGHT.

THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
SAT/SAT NIGHT WITH A CONTINUATION OF COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S MOST AREAS...UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST FROM
THE NRN NECK TO VIRGINIA BEACH...AND IN THE LOW-MID 30S MD/VA
EASTERN SHORE. NW WINDS REMAIN BREEZY ALONG THE COAST ON SAT WITH
GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH AND WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM THE
MID-UPPER 30S SW TO LOW-MID 20S NE. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE 20S WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM SW TO NE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TIMING DIFFERENCES ALONG WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT 12Z MODEL CHANGES
MAKES THIS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST SUN INTO MON. GFS MUCH FASTER
IN BRINGING PCPN ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC RGN SUNDAY THAN BOTH THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN. THE QUICKER GFS SOLN WOULD LEAD TO P-TYPE ISSUES
ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS SUNDAY WHILE THE SLOWER SOLNS WUD MAINLY BE
RAIN (OR A RAIN WET SNOW MIX ACROSS THE NORTH) IN THE AFTN.
CONVERSELY...THE GFS IS QUICKER TO END PCPN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE SLOWER SOLNS KEEP PCPN GOING FOR THE BETTER PART OF MON WITH
COLDER AIR OOZING SOUTH.

WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...TRIED TO BLEND THE FORECAST AS MUCH AS PSBL
KNOWING THAT LATER MODEL RUNS SHOULD SHED BETTER LIGHT ON THE SYSTM.
DRY AND COLD SAT NIGHT WITH INCRG CLDNS. LOWS IN THE 20S XCPT L30S
SERN CSTL AREAS. KEPT A BIT OF FCST CONTINUITY AND BROUGHT LOW CHC
POPS ACROSS WRN CNTYS SUNDAY MORNING. THICKNESSES SUGGEST SOME SLEET
PSBL AT THE START ACROSS NWRN MOST CNTYS WITH RAIN OVRSPRDG THE FA
SUNDAY AFTN AS THE LOW PRS TRACKS ACROSS NRN VA. HIGHS IN THE 40S
AS THE COLD AIR LURKS JUST NORTH OF THE FA. LIKELY RAIN SUNDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE FA...BUT LWRD TO CHC POPS AFTR MIDNIGHT. KEPT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS LATE AS THE PCPN ENDS. ANY P TYPE
ISSUES WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH CAN
COME SOUTH BEFORE PCPN ENDS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO NR 40
ACROSS NC NE CNTYS NR THE ALBEMARLE SND.

SPLIT MONDAYS FCST UP INTO 2 SEGMENTS AS WELL. CHC RAIN ALONG AND
EAST OF I-95 IN THE MORNING...DRYING IT OUT IN THE AFTN AS THE
TRAILING FRNT CLRS THE COAST. COULD EVEN SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
THE LWR MD ERN SHORE ERLY MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE U30S N TO M-U40S S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT THRU TUES NIGHT.
LOWS MON NITE UTEENS TO U20S. HIGHS TUE IN THE 30S. LOWS TUE NIGHT
IN THE 20S TO NR 30.

YET ANTHR MOIST SRN STREAM SYSTM PROGGED TO COME OUT OF THE GULF
COAST STATES AND MOVE NE ALONG THE SERN COAST WED. THIS SYSTM BEARS
WATCHING AS THE COLD AIR MAY BE HARDER TO DISLODGE. WENT WITH CHC
POPS (LIQUID) FOR NOW WITH HIGHS 40-45.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AS OF 06Z. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE LATER TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ALONG WITH AN INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS...SKIES GENLY BECOMING BKN/OVC BY 15Z BUT CIGS
REMAIN 10-15K FT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA ALONG AND N OF A RIC-SBY LINE...AND PERHAPS
PCPN ENDING AS A MIX OF -RASN AT SBY. A GUSTY NW WIND IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. THAT AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH A MORE MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED SCA`S THROUGH 4 AM FOR NRN COASTAL WATERS (AND
MAINTAINING THE HEADLINES THROUGH 4 AM FOR SRN COASTAL WATERS).

ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF "SUB SCA" CNDTNS XPCTD THU BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTM APPRCHS FROM THE WEST. WINDS QUICKLY BECOME SOUTH THU AS HIGH
PRS MOVES OFF THE COAST...THEN SW AS A WRM FRNT BRIEFLY LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A STRNG CDFRNT ERLY FRI MORNING. WILL
LIKELY SEE SCA`S FOR THE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRNT.

CTRNG CAA PROGGED BEHIND THE CD FRNT FRI INTO SAT. WNDS BECOME NW
AND INCRS INTO THE GALE RANGE. DATA SUGGESTS GUSTS BTWN 40-45 KTS
ACROSS THE CSTL WTRS (HIGHEST NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISL) WITH 35 KTS
GUSTS IN THE CHES BAY. GIVEN TMPS FALLING BLO 30 DEGREES...FREEZING
SPRAY REMAINS IN FORECAST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZING SPRAY
ADVSRY ACROSS NRN CSTL WTRS WHERE AIR TMPS IN THE L20S ARE XPCTD.
SEAS/WAVES QUICKLY INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE GUSTY WINDS. SEAS AVG
7-10 FT WITH WAVES 4-5 FT DURING THIS PERIOD.

CNDTNS BEGIN TO IMPROVE SAT NIGHT AS THE CANADIAN HIGH TRACKS OVR
THE RGN. NXT SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE SUN INTO MON. WILL LIKELY SEE ANTHR ROUND OF SCA`S
WITH THIS SYSTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ630>632-634>636-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR ANZ633-637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ630-631-650-652.
     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652-654.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...LKB/DAP
MARINE...LKB/MPR










000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290904
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
404 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS
TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES WILL
AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE SSE THROUGH
THE DAY AS ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES AND
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST U.S. TODAY. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTN AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP BTWN THE HIGH SHIFTING SSE AND THE APPROACHING CLIPPER
SYSTEM. THE MIXING SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES WEST...WITH HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EAST. OVERALL
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S (LOW-MID 40S NRN NECK AND
MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGH CLOUDS BTWN 15-20KFT WILL ALSO INCREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND MAY HAMPER TEMPS FROM
WARMING ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO BUT EXPECT MIXING TO OVERCOME THIS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA.

A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM. AT THE ONSET...PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING NORTH OF RICHMOND FROM
ROUGHLY LOUISA TO SALISBURY AND THEN SHIFT OVER THE MD LOWER
EASTERN SHORE THIS EVENING BEFORE LIFTING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS BEGIN AROUND 6KFT AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN. THERE IS A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIFT THROUGH THE BOTTOM PORTIONS OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
(00-03Z)...THEREFORE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SLEET BRIEFLY
MIXING WITH RAIN OVER THE NRN NECK/MD EASTERN SHORE AFTER DARK.
PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END LATE IN THE EVENING AS BEST
MOISTURE/ENERGY LIFTS NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BE VERY LIMITED WITH QPF AMTS NO HIGHER THAN
0.03 INCHES AT BEST. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS CENTERED AROUND
06Z (1 AM) AND IS EXPECTED TO BE OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK. COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND DRYING ALOFT WILL COMMENCE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
UNSTABLE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW WLY WINDS TO REMAIN
BREEZY OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S NW TO UPPER 30S
FAR SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL BE A COLD BRISK DAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS A
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING IN
A VERY TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. GUSTY NW WINDS OF 30-35 MPH
WILL DEVELOP BY MID MORNING AND PERSIST INTO FRI EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVER INLAND AREAS. CLOSER TO THE COAST...WINDS MAY
GUST UP TO 40 MPH AT TIMES DURING THE DAY AND THEN REMAIN GUSTY TO
AROUND 30 MPH FRI NIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE IN FULL FORCE
FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL DESPITE THE WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE LOW-MID 40S (UPPER 30S NRN NECK AND MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). LOW
FRI NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS NORTH AND WEST OF RICHMOND...
LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE...UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE COMBINATION OF
WIND AND COLD TEMPS WILL KEEP WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S DURING THE DAY FRI...AND FROM 5-15 DEGREES FRI NIGHT.

THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
SAT/SAT NIGHT WITH A CONTINUATION OF COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S MOST AREAS...UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST FROM
THE NRN NECK TO VIRGINIA BEACH...AND IN THE LOW-MID 30S MD/VA
EASTERN SHORE. NW WINDS REMAIN BREEZY ALONG THE COAST ON SAT WITH
GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH AND WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM THE
MID-UPPER 30S SW TO LOW-MID 20S NE. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE 20S WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM SW TO NE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TIMING DIFFERENCES ALONG WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT 12Z MODEL CHANGES
MAKES THIS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST SUN INTO MON. GFS MUCH FASTER
IN BRINGING PCPN ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC RGN SUNDAY THAN BOTH THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN. THE QUICKER GFS SOLN WOULD LEAD TO P-TYPE ISSUES
ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS SUNDAY WHILE THE SLOWER SOLNS WUD MAINLY BE
RAIN (OR A RAIN WET SNOW MIX ACROSS THE NORTH) IN THE AFTN.
CONVERSELY...THE GFS IS QUICKER TO END PCPN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE SLOWER SOLNS KEEP PCPN GOING FOR THE BETTER PART OF MON WITH
COLDER AIR OOZING SOUTH.

WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...TRIED TO BLEND THE FORECAST AS MUCH AS PSBL
KNOWING THAT LATER MODEL RUNS SHOULD SHED BETTER LIGHT ON THE SYSTM.
DRY AND COLD SAT NIGHT WITH INCRG CLDNS. LOWS IN THE 20S XCPT L30S
SERN CSTL AREAS. KEPT A BIT OF FCST CONTINUITY AND BROUGHT LOW CHC
POPS ACROSS WRN CNTYS SUNDAY MORNING. THICKNESSES SUGGEST SOME SLEET
PSBL AT THE START ACROSS NWRN MOST CNTYS WITH RAIN OVRSPRDG THE FA
SUNDAY AFTN AS THE LOW PRS TRACKS ACROSS NRN VA. HIGHS IN THE 40S
AS THE COLD AIR LURKS JUST NORTH OF THE FA. LIKELY RAIN SUNDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE FA...BUT LWRD TO CHC POPS AFTR MIDNIGHT. KEPT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS LATE AS THE PCPN ENDS. ANY P TYPE
ISSUES WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH CAN
COME SOUTH BEFORE PCPN ENDS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO NR 40
ACROSS NC NE CNTYS NR THE ALBEMARLE SND.

SPLIT MONDAYS FCST UP INTO 2 SEGMENTS AS WELL. CHC RAIN ALONG AND
EAST OF I-95 IN THE MORNING...DRYING IT OUT IN THE AFTN AS THE
TRAILING FRNT CLRS THE COAST. COULD EVEN SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
THE LWR MD ERN SHORE ERLY MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE U30S N TO M-U40S S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT THRU TUES NIGHT.
LOWS MON NITE UTEENS TO U20S. HIGHS TUE IN THE 30S. LOWS TUE NIGHT
IN THE 20S TO NR 30.

YET ANTHR MOIST SRN STREAM SYSTM PROGGED TO COME OUT OF THE GULF
COAST STATES AND MOVE NE ALONG THE SERN COAST WED. THIS SYSTM BEARS
WATCHING AS THE COLD AIR MAY BE HARDER TO DISLODGE. WENT WITH CHC
POPS (LIQUID) FOR NOW WITH HIGHS 40-45.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AS OF 06Z. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE LATER TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ALONG WITH AN INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS...SKIES GENLY BECOMING BKN/OVC BY 15Z BUT CIGS
REMAIN 10-15K FT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA ALONG AND N OF A RIC-SBY LINE...AND PERHAPS
PCPN ENDING AS A MIX OF -RASN AT SBY. A GUSTY NW WIND IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. THAT AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH A MORE MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED SCA`S THROUGH 4 AM FOR NRN COASTAL WATERS (AND
MAINTAINING THE HEADLINES THROUGH 4 AM FOR SRN COASTAL WATERS).

ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF "SUB SCA" CNDTNS XPCTD THU BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTM APPRCHS FROM THE WEST. WINDS QUICKLY BECOME SOUTH THU AS HIGH
PRS MOVES OFF THE COAST...THEN SW AS A WRM FRNT BRIEFLY LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A STRNG CDFRNT ERLY FRI MORNING. WILL
LIKELY SEE SCA`S FOR THE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRNT.

CTRNG CAA PROGGED BEHIND THE CD FRNT FRI INTO SAT. WNDS BECOME NW
AND INCRS INTO THE GALE RANGE. DATA SUGGESTS GUSTS BTWN 40-45 KTS
ACROSS THE CSTL WTRS (HIGHEST NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISL) WITH 35 KTS
GUSTS IN THE CHES BAY. GIVEN TMPS FALLING BLO 30 DEGREES...FREEZING
SPRAY REMAINS IN FORECAST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZING SPRAY
ADVSRY ACROSS NRN CSTL WTRS WHERE AIR TMPS IN THE L20S ARE XPCTD.
SEAS/WAVES QUICKLY INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE GUSTY WINDS. SEAS AVG
7-10 FT WITH WAVES 4-5 FT DURING THIS PERIOD.

CNDTNS BEGIN TO IMPROVE SAT NIGHT AS THE CANADIAN HIGH TRACKS OVR
THE RGN. NXT SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE SUN INTO MON. WILL LIKELY SEE ANTHR ROUND OF SCA`S
WITH THIS SYSTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ630>632-634>636-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR ANZ633-637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ630-631-650-652.
     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652-654.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...LKB/DAP
MARINE...LKB/MPR









000
FXUS61 KLWX 290856
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
356 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WINDY AND COLD
CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA SATURDAY...BUT LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS...DRY AIR AND ONLY A THIN DECK OF
HIGH CLOUDS HAS ALLOWED FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE...IT
WILL BE QUITE COLD EARLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE TEENS FOR
MOST AREAS...BUT MID TO UPPER 20S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING AND LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR AREA FROM
THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...DESPITE A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FORCING FROM A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL TRACK
THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
CAUSE A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. STRONG WARM ADVECTION ALOFT
FROM THE SOUTHERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH COLD AND DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE POSES A THREAT FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND THE DURATION OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ABOUT ONE TO TWO HOURS. HOWEVER...SOME OF THAT PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO FALL IN THE FROM OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND NORTHERN MARYLAND...NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA. GIVEN THE RECENT COLD CONDITIONS...ANY
FREEZING RAIN THAT DOES FALL WILL LIKELY FREEZE ON UNTREATED
SURFACES EVEN IF THE SURFACE TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING.
THIS WILL IMPACT THE EVENING RUSH. THEREFORE...A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS.

FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHERN
MARYLAND...AND THE WASHINGTON METROPOLITAN AREAS SURFACE TEMPS
WILL BE A BIT WARMER. SOME SLEET MAY MIX IN WITH RAIN...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN FREEZING RAIN IS LOW AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR PAVEMENT TEMPS TODAY BECAUSE RAIN MAY FREEZE ON
SOME SURFACES EVEN WITH TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING.

ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS INTO THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS...FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIPITATION IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY.

PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE AWAY FROM MOST AREAS THIS EVENING AND THE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OVERNIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIDGES. UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE MIDWEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE QUITE STRONG...RESULTING IN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AND A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN COLD CONDITIONS. IN FACT...TEMPS MAY
HOLD STEADY OR EVEN FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS
TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S IN SOUTHERN MARYLAND. MORE UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL NOON...BUT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS ANOTHER POTENT UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS
THROUGH THE AREA. MOST AREAS WILL NOT SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW...BUT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO COMBINE WITH STRONG COLD
ADVECTION FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS. THIS COULD LEAVE A QUICK COATING IN SPOTS AND WITH SUDDEN
CHANGES IN VISIBILITY THAT COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
TRAVEL...ALTHOUGH IT WOULD BE LOCALIZED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND...EASTERN
WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA.

COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
AND EAST. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ALLEGHENY FRONT FRI
EVENING EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THE NW FLOW INJECTS MUCH DRIER AIR.
MAIN CONCERN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS...ALMOST 10-15 DEGREES BELOW. COMBINING WITH NW WINDS WITH
GUSTS 20-30 KTS...AND IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS 30-35 KTS...WIND CHILLS
FORECASTED TO DROP TO AROUND -10 DEGREES CELSIUS POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS...NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE...AND
POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY POTENTIAL IN THE HWO...MAINLY FOR
THE FAR WESTERN AREAS. USED A BLEND OF ADJMETBC/MOSBC WHICH HAS BEEN
TRENDING WELL FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CENTER OF THE HIGH SLIPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE SE US SAT WHILE A NEAR
ZONAL FLOW SETS UP DURING THE DAY...AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS SAT
NIGHT-SUN MORNING. THE PATTERN KEEPS THE AREA DRY THOUGH COLD THRU
SAT WITH TEMPS STILL RUNNING BELOW NORMAL. WARMING TREND BY SAT
NIGHT AS WINDS BACK TO SW FLOW...WITH 850MB TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND
-5 DEGREES CELSIUS.

NEXT CHC FOR PCPN SUN-MON WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER GOM AND
RIDING A NEAR STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. SOME QUESTION REMAINS
ON PCPN TIMING AND INTENSITY...AND AS SUCH THEN P-TYPE. GFS/CMC
STRONGER SOLUTIONS WITH THE LOW DEVELOPMENT AS UPPER LVL TROUGH DIGS
DEEPER SOUTH...AND PICKS UP SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING THE SOUTHERN
STREAM...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS MORE OF A SEPARATION. WENT WITH
LIKELY POPS BY SUN AFTN OVER WESTERN AREAS TO HIGHLIGHT THE HIGHER
CONFIDENCE OF PCPN...THEN SPREADING THE LIKELY POPS TO THE EAST FOR
SUN NIGHT-MON. CONCERNING PCPN TYPE...MAINTAINED MAINLY A SNOW
EVENT...WITH PSBL TRANSITION TO RAIN DURING THE AFTN SUN OVER JUST
THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA. HIGHER CONFIDENCE ANY PCPN ON
MONDAY REMAINS ALL SNOW WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING -10 TO -15 DEGREES
CELSIUS DURING THE DAY. AS THE LOW BECOMES CLEARER ON SUBSEQUENT
SHIFTS...WILL BE ABLE TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON P-TYPE AND AMTS AT
THE ONSET.

PCPN CLEARS THE AREA BY TUES MORNING...WITH SFC HIGH BRINGING
ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRY AND COLD TEMPS. TRENDED COLDER WITH HIGHS TUES
AND LOWS TUES NIGHT AS A RESULT. MODEL DIVERGENCE BY MID WEEK ON THE
HANDLING OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH PCPN PSBL ONCE AGAIN
LATE WED-THURS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TONIGHT. STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH A COUPLE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 35 TO 40 KNOTS FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SAT NIGHT...VFR LIKELY...PSBL SUB-VFR LATE SAT NIGHT.
GUSTY NW WINDS 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS FRI NIGHT...BCMG LESS
THAN 10 KTS BY SAT AFTN. PSBL LLWS FRI NIGHT WITH 2KFT WINDS 40-50
KTS.

SUN-MON...SUB-VFR LIKELY WITH PCPN...PSBL SUB-IFR SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING. WINTRY MIX PSBL. INCREASING NW WINDS MON...GUSTS TO 20 KTS.

MON NIGHT-TUES NIGHT...VFR LIKELY.

WED-WED NIGHT...SUB-VFR PSBL WITH PCPN.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TODAY. THE COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH TONIGHT AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. A GALE WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS FRIDAY.

GALES LIKELY AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY NIGHT ON CHESAPEAKE
BAY...AND POSSIBLY ON THE UPPER POTOMAC. OCNL GALES MAY LINGER TILL
DAYBREAK SAT ON THE BAY. WINDS SUBSIDE SAT BUT REMAINING 15-20 KTS
DURING THE DAY. WINDS DIMINISH SAT NIGHT...AND REMAIN SUB-SCA
THROUGH SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW SUN
NIGHT-MON...SCA CONDITIONS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE AGAIN. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST
     FRIDAY FOR MDZ501.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR MDZ003-502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR MDZ004-005-503-505.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     FRIDAY FOR VAZ503.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ028-031.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ505.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST
     FRIDAY FOR WVZ503.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     FRIDAY FOR WVZ501-505.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR WVZ050>053-504.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL/SEARS
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...BJL/SEARS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 290856
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
356 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WINDY AND COLD
CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA SATURDAY...BUT LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS...DRY AIR AND ONLY A THIN DECK OF
HIGH CLOUDS HAS ALLOWED FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE...IT
WILL BE QUITE COLD EARLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE TEENS FOR
MOST AREAS...BUT MID TO UPPER 20S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING AND LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR AREA FROM
THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...DESPITE A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FORCING FROM A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL TRACK
THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
CAUSE A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. STRONG WARM ADVECTION ALOFT
FROM THE SOUTHERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH COLD AND DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE POSES A THREAT FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND THE DURATION OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ABOUT ONE TO TWO HOURS. HOWEVER...SOME OF THAT PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO FALL IN THE FROM OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND NORTHERN MARYLAND...NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA. GIVEN THE RECENT COLD CONDITIONS...ANY
FREEZING RAIN THAT DOES FALL WILL LIKELY FREEZE ON UNTREATED
SURFACES EVEN IF THE SURFACE TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING.
THIS WILL IMPACT THE EVENING RUSH. THEREFORE...A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS.

FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHERN
MARYLAND...AND THE WASHINGTON METROPOLITAN AREAS SURFACE TEMPS
WILL BE A BIT WARMER. SOME SLEET MAY MIX IN WITH RAIN...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN FREEZING RAIN IS LOW AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR PAVEMENT TEMPS TODAY BECAUSE RAIN MAY FREEZE ON
SOME SURFACES EVEN WITH TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING.

ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS INTO THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS...FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIPITATION IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY.

PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE AWAY FROM MOST AREAS THIS EVENING AND THE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OVERNIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIDGES. UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE MIDWEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE QUITE STRONG...RESULTING IN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AND A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN COLD CONDITIONS. IN FACT...TEMPS MAY
HOLD STEADY OR EVEN FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS
TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S IN SOUTHERN MARYLAND. MORE UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL NOON...BUT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS ANOTHER POTENT UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS
THROUGH THE AREA. MOST AREAS WILL NOT SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW...BUT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO COMBINE WITH STRONG COLD
ADVECTION FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS. THIS COULD LEAVE A QUICK COATING IN SPOTS AND WITH SUDDEN
CHANGES IN VISIBILITY THAT COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
TRAVEL...ALTHOUGH IT WOULD BE LOCALIZED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND...EASTERN
WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA.

COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
AND EAST. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ALLEGHENY FRONT FRI
EVENING EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THE NW FLOW INJECTS MUCH DRIER AIR.
MAIN CONCERN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS...ALMOST 10-15 DEGREES BELOW. COMBINING WITH NW WINDS WITH
GUSTS 20-30 KTS...AND IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS 30-35 KTS...WIND CHILLS
FORECASTED TO DROP TO AROUND -10 DEGREES CELSIUS POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS...NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE...AND
POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY POTENTIAL IN THE HWO...MAINLY FOR
THE FAR WESTERN AREAS. USED A BLEND OF ADJMETBC/MOSBC WHICH HAS BEEN
TRENDING WELL FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CENTER OF THE HIGH SLIPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE SE US SAT WHILE A NEAR
ZONAL FLOW SETS UP DURING THE DAY...AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS SAT
NIGHT-SUN MORNING. THE PATTERN KEEPS THE AREA DRY THOUGH COLD THRU
SAT WITH TEMPS STILL RUNNING BELOW NORMAL. WARMING TREND BY SAT
NIGHT AS WINDS BACK TO SW FLOW...WITH 850MB TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND
-5 DEGREES CELSIUS.

NEXT CHC FOR PCPN SUN-MON WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER GOM AND
RIDING A NEAR STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. SOME QUESTION REMAINS
ON PCPN TIMING AND INTENSITY...AND AS SUCH THEN P-TYPE. GFS/CMC
STRONGER SOLUTIONS WITH THE LOW DEVELOPMENT AS UPPER LVL TROUGH DIGS
DEEPER SOUTH...AND PICKS UP SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING THE SOUTHERN
STREAM...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS MORE OF A SEPARATION. WENT WITH
LIKELY POPS BY SUN AFTN OVER WESTERN AREAS TO HIGHLIGHT THE HIGHER
CONFIDENCE OF PCPN...THEN SPREADING THE LIKELY POPS TO THE EAST FOR
SUN NIGHT-MON. CONCERNING PCPN TYPE...MAINTAINED MAINLY A SNOW
EVENT...WITH PSBL TRANSITION TO RAIN DURING THE AFTN SUN OVER JUST
THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA. HIGHER CONFIDENCE ANY PCPN ON
MONDAY REMAINS ALL SNOW WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING -10 TO -15 DEGREES
CELSIUS DURING THE DAY. AS THE LOW BECOMES CLEARER ON SUBSEQUENT
SHIFTS...WILL BE ABLE TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON P-TYPE AND AMTS AT
THE ONSET.

PCPN CLEARS THE AREA BY TUES MORNING...WITH SFC HIGH BRINGING
ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRY AND COLD TEMPS. TRENDED COLDER WITH HIGHS TUES
AND LOWS TUES NIGHT AS A RESULT. MODEL DIVERGENCE BY MID WEEK ON THE
HANDLING OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH PCPN PSBL ONCE AGAIN
LATE WED-THURS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TONIGHT. STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH A COUPLE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 35 TO 40 KNOTS FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SAT NIGHT...VFR LIKELY...PSBL SUB-VFR LATE SAT NIGHT.
GUSTY NW WINDS 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS FRI NIGHT...BCMG LESS
THAN 10 KTS BY SAT AFTN. PSBL LLWS FRI NIGHT WITH 2KFT WINDS 40-50
KTS.

SUN-MON...SUB-VFR LIKELY WITH PCPN...PSBL SUB-IFR SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING. WINTRY MIX PSBL. INCREASING NW WINDS MON...GUSTS TO 20 KTS.

MON NIGHT-TUES NIGHT...VFR LIKELY.

WED-WED NIGHT...SUB-VFR PSBL WITH PCPN.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TODAY. THE COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH TONIGHT AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. A GALE WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS FRIDAY.

GALES LIKELY AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY NIGHT ON CHESAPEAKE
BAY...AND POSSIBLY ON THE UPPER POTOMAC. OCNL GALES MAY LINGER TILL
DAYBREAK SAT ON THE BAY. WINDS SUBSIDE SAT BUT REMAINING 15-20 KTS
DURING THE DAY. WINDS DIMINISH SAT NIGHT...AND REMAIN SUB-SCA
THROUGH SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW SUN
NIGHT-MON...SCA CONDITIONS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE AGAIN. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST
     FRIDAY FOR MDZ501.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR MDZ003-502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR MDZ004-005-503-505.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     FRIDAY FOR VAZ503.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ028-031.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ505.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST
     FRIDAY FOR WVZ503.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     FRIDAY FOR WVZ501-505.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR WVZ050>053-504.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL/SEARS
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...BJL/SEARS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 290856
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
356 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WINDY AND COLD
CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA SATURDAY...BUT LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS...DRY AIR AND ONLY A THIN DECK OF
HIGH CLOUDS HAS ALLOWED FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE...IT
WILL BE QUITE COLD EARLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE TEENS FOR
MOST AREAS...BUT MID TO UPPER 20S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING AND LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR AREA FROM
THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...DESPITE A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FORCING FROM A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL TRACK
THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
CAUSE A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. STRONG WARM ADVECTION ALOFT
FROM THE SOUTHERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH COLD AND DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE POSES A THREAT FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND THE DURATION OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ABOUT ONE TO TWO HOURS. HOWEVER...SOME OF THAT PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO FALL IN THE FROM OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND NORTHERN MARYLAND...NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA. GIVEN THE RECENT COLD CONDITIONS...ANY
FREEZING RAIN THAT DOES FALL WILL LIKELY FREEZE ON UNTREATED
SURFACES EVEN IF THE SURFACE TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING.
THIS WILL IMPACT THE EVENING RUSH. THEREFORE...A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS.

FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHERN
MARYLAND...AND THE WASHINGTON METROPOLITAN AREAS SURFACE TEMPS
WILL BE A BIT WARMER. SOME SLEET MAY MIX IN WITH RAIN...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN FREEZING RAIN IS LOW AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR PAVEMENT TEMPS TODAY BECAUSE RAIN MAY FREEZE ON
SOME SURFACES EVEN WITH TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING.

ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS INTO THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS...FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIPITATION IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY.

PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE AWAY FROM MOST AREAS THIS EVENING AND THE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OVERNIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIDGES. UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE MIDWEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE QUITE STRONG...RESULTING IN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AND A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN COLD CONDITIONS. IN FACT...TEMPS MAY
HOLD STEADY OR EVEN FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS
TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S IN SOUTHERN MARYLAND. MORE UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL NOON...BUT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS ANOTHER POTENT UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS
THROUGH THE AREA. MOST AREAS WILL NOT SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW...BUT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO COMBINE WITH STRONG COLD
ADVECTION FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS. THIS COULD LEAVE A QUICK COATING IN SPOTS AND WITH SUDDEN
CHANGES IN VISIBILITY THAT COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
TRAVEL...ALTHOUGH IT WOULD BE LOCALIZED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND...EASTERN
WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA.

COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
AND EAST. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ALLEGHENY FRONT FRI
EVENING EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THE NW FLOW INJECTS MUCH DRIER AIR.
MAIN CONCERN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS...ALMOST 10-15 DEGREES BELOW. COMBINING WITH NW WINDS WITH
GUSTS 20-30 KTS...AND IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS 30-35 KTS...WIND CHILLS
FORECASTED TO DROP TO AROUND -10 DEGREES CELSIUS POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS...NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE...AND
POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY POTENTIAL IN THE HWO...MAINLY FOR
THE FAR WESTERN AREAS. USED A BLEND OF ADJMETBC/MOSBC WHICH HAS BEEN
TRENDING WELL FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CENTER OF THE HIGH SLIPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE SE US SAT WHILE A NEAR
ZONAL FLOW SETS UP DURING THE DAY...AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS SAT
NIGHT-SUN MORNING. THE PATTERN KEEPS THE AREA DRY THOUGH COLD THRU
SAT WITH TEMPS STILL RUNNING BELOW NORMAL. WARMING TREND BY SAT
NIGHT AS WINDS BACK TO SW FLOW...WITH 850MB TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND
-5 DEGREES CELSIUS.

NEXT CHC FOR PCPN SUN-MON WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER GOM AND
RIDING A NEAR STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. SOME QUESTION REMAINS
ON PCPN TIMING AND INTENSITY...AND AS SUCH THEN P-TYPE. GFS/CMC
STRONGER SOLUTIONS WITH THE LOW DEVELOPMENT AS UPPER LVL TROUGH DIGS
DEEPER SOUTH...AND PICKS UP SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING THE SOUTHERN
STREAM...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS MORE OF A SEPARATION. WENT WITH
LIKELY POPS BY SUN AFTN OVER WESTERN AREAS TO HIGHLIGHT THE HIGHER
CONFIDENCE OF PCPN...THEN SPREADING THE LIKELY POPS TO THE EAST FOR
SUN NIGHT-MON. CONCERNING PCPN TYPE...MAINTAINED MAINLY A SNOW
EVENT...WITH PSBL TRANSITION TO RAIN DURING THE AFTN SUN OVER JUST
THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA. HIGHER CONFIDENCE ANY PCPN ON
MONDAY REMAINS ALL SNOW WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING -10 TO -15 DEGREES
CELSIUS DURING THE DAY. AS THE LOW BECOMES CLEARER ON SUBSEQUENT
SHIFTS...WILL BE ABLE TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON P-TYPE AND AMTS AT
THE ONSET.

PCPN CLEARS THE AREA BY TUES MORNING...WITH SFC HIGH BRINGING
ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRY AND COLD TEMPS. TRENDED COLDER WITH HIGHS TUES
AND LOWS TUES NIGHT AS A RESULT. MODEL DIVERGENCE BY MID WEEK ON THE
HANDLING OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH PCPN PSBL ONCE AGAIN
LATE WED-THURS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TONIGHT. STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH A COUPLE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 35 TO 40 KNOTS FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SAT NIGHT...VFR LIKELY...PSBL SUB-VFR LATE SAT NIGHT.
GUSTY NW WINDS 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS FRI NIGHT...BCMG LESS
THAN 10 KTS BY SAT AFTN. PSBL LLWS FRI NIGHT WITH 2KFT WINDS 40-50
KTS.

SUN-MON...SUB-VFR LIKELY WITH PCPN...PSBL SUB-IFR SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING. WINTRY MIX PSBL. INCREASING NW WINDS MON...GUSTS TO 20 KTS.

MON NIGHT-TUES NIGHT...VFR LIKELY.

WED-WED NIGHT...SUB-VFR PSBL WITH PCPN.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TODAY. THE COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH TONIGHT AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. A GALE WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS FRIDAY.

GALES LIKELY AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY NIGHT ON CHESAPEAKE
BAY...AND POSSIBLY ON THE UPPER POTOMAC. OCNL GALES MAY LINGER TILL
DAYBREAK SAT ON THE BAY. WINDS SUBSIDE SAT BUT REMAINING 15-20 KTS
DURING THE DAY. WINDS DIMINISH SAT NIGHT...AND REMAIN SUB-SCA
THROUGH SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW SUN
NIGHT-MON...SCA CONDITIONS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE AGAIN. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST
     FRIDAY FOR MDZ501.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR MDZ003-502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR MDZ004-005-503-505.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     FRIDAY FOR VAZ503.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ028-031.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ505.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST
     FRIDAY FOR WVZ503.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     FRIDAY FOR WVZ501-505.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR WVZ050>053-504.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL/SEARS
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...BJL/SEARS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 290856
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
356 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WINDY AND COLD
CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA SATURDAY...BUT LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS...DRY AIR AND ONLY A THIN DECK OF
HIGH CLOUDS HAS ALLOWED FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE...IT
WILL BE QUITE COLD EARLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE TEENS FOR
MOST AREAS...BUT MID TO UPPER 20S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING AND LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR AREA FROM
THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...DESPITE A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FORCING FROM A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL TRACK
THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
CAUSE A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. STRONG WARM ADVECTION ALOFT
FROM THE SOUTHERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH COLD AND DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE POSES A THREAT FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND THE DURATION OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ABOUT ONE TO TWO HOURS. HOWEVER...SOME OF THAT PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO FALL IN THE FROM OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND NORTHERN MARYLAND...NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA. GIVEN THE RECENT COLD CONDITIONS...ANY
FREEZING RAIN THAT DOES FALL WILL LIKELY FREEZE ON UNTREATED
SURFACES EVEN IF THE SURFACE TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING.
THIS WILL IMPACT THE EVENING RUSH. THEREFORE...A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS.

FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHERN
MARYLAND...AND THE WASHINGTON METROPOLITAN AREAS SURFACE TEMPS
WILL BE A BIT WARMER. SOME SLEET MAY MIX IN WITH RAIN...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN FREEZING RAIN IS LOW AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR PAVEMENT TEMPS TODAY BECAUSE RAIN MAY FREEZE ON
SOME SURFACES EVEN WITH TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING.

ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS INTO THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS...FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIPITATION IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY.

PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE AWAY FROM MOST AREAS THIS EVENING AND THE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OVERNIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIDGES. UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE MIDWEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE QUITE STRONG...RESULTING IN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AND A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN COLD CONDITIONS. IN FACT...TEMPS MAY
HOLD STEADY OR EVEN FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS
TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S IN SOUTHERN MARYLAND. MORE UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL NOON...BUT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS ANOTHER POTENT UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS
THROUGH THE AREA. MOST AREAS WILL NOT SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW...BUT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO COMBINE WITH STRONG COLD
ADVECTION FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS. THIS COULD LEAVE A QUICK COATING IN SPOTS AND WITH SUDDEN
CHANGES IN VISIBILITY THAT COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
TRAVEL...ALTHOUGH IT WOULD BE LOCALIZED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND...EASTERN
WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA.

COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
AND EAST. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ALLEGHENY FRONT FRI
EVENING EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THE NW FLOW INJECTS MUCH DRIER AIR.
MAIN CONCERN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS...ALMOST 10-15 DEGREES BELOW. COMBINING WITH NW WINDS WITH
GUSTS 20-30 KTS...AND IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS 30-35 KTS...WIND CHILLS
FORECASTED TO DROP TO AROUND -10 DEGREES CELSIUS POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS...NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE...AND
POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY POTENTIAL IN THE HWO...MAINLY FOR
THE FAR WESTERN AREAS. USED A BLEND OF ADJMETBC/MOSBC WHICH HAS BEEN
TRENDING WELL FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CENTER OF THE HIGH SLIPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE SE US SAT WHILE A NEAR
ZONAL FLOW SETS UP DURING THE DAY...AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS SAT
NIGHT-SUN MORNING. THE PATTERN KEEPS THE AREA DRY THOUGH COLD THRU
SAT WITH TEMPS STILL RUNNING BELOW NORMAL. WARMING TREND BY SAT
NIGHT AS WINDS BACK TO SW FLOW...WITH 850MB TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND
-5 DEGREES CELSIUS.

NEXT CHC FOR PCPN SUN-MON WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER GOM AND
RIDING A NEAR STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. SOME QUESTION REMAINS
ON PCPN TIMING AND INTENSITY...AND AS SUCH THEN P-TYPE. GFS/CMC
STRONGER SOLUTIONS WITH THE LOW DEVELOPMENT AS UPPER LVL TROUGH DIGS
DEEPER SOUTH...AND PICKS UP SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING THE SOUTHERN
STREAM...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS MORE OF A SEPARATION. WENT WITH
LIKELY POPS BY SUN AFTN OVER WESTERN AREAS TO HIGHLIGHT THE HIGHER
CONFIDENCE OF PCPN...THEN SPREADING THE LIKELY POPS TO THE EAST FOR
SUN NIGHT-MON. CONCERNING PCPN TYPE...MAINTAINED MAINLY A SNOW
EVENT...WITH PSBL TRANSITION TO RAIN DURING THE AFTN SUN OVER JUST
THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA. HIGHER CONFIDENCE ANY PCPN ON
MONDAY REMAINS ALL SNOW WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING -10 TO -15 DEGREES
CELSIUS DURING THE DAY. AS THE LOW BECOMES CLEARER ON SUBSEQUENT
SHIFTS...WILL BE ABLE TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON P-TYPE AND AMTS AT
THE ONSET.

PCPN CLEARS THE AREA BY TUES MORNING...WITH SFC HIGH BRINGING
ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRY AND COLD TEMPS. TRENDED COLDER WITH HIGHS TUES
AND LOWS TUES NIGHT AS A RESULT. MODEL DIVERGENCE BY MID WEEK ON THE
HANDLING OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH PCPN PSBL ONCE AGAIN
LATE WED-THURS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TONIGHT. STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH A COUPLE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 35 TO 40 KNOTS FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SAT NIGHT...VFR LIKELY...PSBL SUB-VFR LATE SAT NIGHT.
GUSTY NW WINDS 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS FRI NIGHT...BCMG LESS
THAN 10 KTS BY SAT AFTN. PSBL LLWS FRI NIGHT WITH 2KFT WINDS 40-50
KTS.

SUN-MON...SUB-VFR LIKELY WITH PCPN...PSBL SUB-IFR SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING. WINTRY MIX PSBL. INCREASING NW WINDS MON...GUSTS TO 20 KTS.

MON NIGHT-TUES NIGHT...VFR LIKELY.

WED-WED NIGHT...SUB-VFR PSBL WITH PCPN.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TODAY. THE COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH TONIGHT AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. A GALE WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS FRIDAY.

GALES LIKELY AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY NIGHT ON CHESAPEAKE
BAY...AND POSSIBLY ON THE UPPER POTOMAC. OCNL GALES MAY LINGER TILL
DAYBREAK SAT ON THE BAY. WINDS SUBSIDE SAT BUT REMAINING 15-20 KTS
DURING THE DAY. WINDS DIMINISH SAT NIGHT...AND REMAIN SUB-SCA
THROUGH SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW SUN
NIGHT-MON...SCA CONDITIONS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE AGAIN. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST
     FRIDAY FOR MDZ501.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR MDZ003-502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR MDZ004-005-503-505.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     FRIDAY FOR VAZ503.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ028-031.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ505.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST
     FRIDAY FOR WVZ503.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     FRIDAY FOR WVZ501-505.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR WVZ050>053-504.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL/SEARS
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...BJL/SEARS








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290731
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
231 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CROSSING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE UPPER OHIO REGION TODAY AND SNOW EARLY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MODELS ARE COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF FRONT AND THE STRONG WAA AS WELL. THE KEY
IS WHAT WILL THE SURFACE TEMPS DO. MODELS ARE INDICATING A SLOW
RESPONSE TO THE WAA AT THE SURFACE BUT I HAVE MY DOUBTS THAT IT
WILL BE FAST ENOUGH TO PREVENT SOME ICING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EVENT. BECAUSE OF THIS...HAVE EXTENDED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
TO COVER MOST OF MY OHIO ZONES. THERE ARE A LOT OF FACTORS AT
PLAY HERE WHICH MAKES THIS A VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST. FIRST ALOFT.
ALL THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRONG SURGE OF WARMER AIR ENVELOPING
MY ENTIRE CWA TODAY. THIS SHOWS UP QUIET WELL IN THE THERMAL
PATTERN AT 850MB AND IN THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESS PATTERNS.
I HAVE DECIDED TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS THINKING ON
PRECIP TYPES. THE THING TO WATCH WILL BE HOW THE ATMOSPHERE
RESPONDS ONCE THE PRECIP BEGINS AND THE WET BULBING EFFECTS COME
INTO PLAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A PROFILE VERY CLOSE TO THE 0
DEGREE LINE WHICH WILL KEEP THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LIQUID OR
FROZEN VERY CLOSE. AT THE SURFACE. MODELS DO SHOW SURFACE TEMPS
RISING QUICKLY AS THE PRECIP APPROACHES. HOWEVER...MY CONCERN IS
THAT WITH SUCH COLD DEWPOINTS AT THE SURFACE...WET BULBING WILL
ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN...AT LEAST IN OHIO AT THE
ONSET OF THE EVENT. OTHER FACTORS THAT NEED TO BE CONSIDERED ARE
THE WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK AND LOCALIZED EFFECTS...MAINLY SHELTERED
AREAS WHERE TEMPS WILL TAKE LONGER TO RECOVER.

MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE
FRONT SWINGS INTO CENTRAL PA. THE ONSET OF CAA WILL BE RIGHT
BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERMAL PROFILES QUICKLY BECOME MORE UNSTABLE TONIGHT. COLD
ADVECTION BEGINS IN EARNEST ALOFT AS TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE
SET TO CROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL OCCUR
SIMULTANEOUSLY TO THE DRIER AIR COMING IN...HOWEVER THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH LAYER LOOKS TO CRASH TOWARD THE SURFACE TONIGHT IN THE
RIDGES...WELL BEFORE THE MOISTURE PEELS OFF. CONSENSUS SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS FROM THE NAM AND GFS VIA BUFKIT SUGGEST AROUND 25 TO
1 BEGIN OVERNIGHT. GIVEN INSTABILITY AND UNIDIRECTIONAL
UPSLOPE...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN VERY EFFICIENT SNOW GROWTH. MODEL
QPF IS GENERALLY ONLY A COUPLE OF TENTHS...AND GIVEN ICE COVER
UPSTREAM ON LAKE ERIE...A TON OF QPF IS VERY UNLIKELY.
HOWEVER...EVEN LIGHT QPF IN THIS CASE IS LIKELY TO ADD UP TO
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. GIVEN THAT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY
THERE COULD BE AN INCH OR SO IN SOME OF THE SHELTERED HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND ANOTHER 2 TO 5 SEEM LIKELY IN THE UPSLOPE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC HELP VIA TWO ADDITIONAL WAVES
CROSSING THE AREA...3 TO 6 INCH TOTALS SEEM REASONABLE IN THE
RIDGES BY FRIDAY MORNING. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE EXPANDED
TO ACCOMMODATE THIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH LEVELS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PARTICULARLY WITH THE
SYSTEM THAT COULD AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME
FRAME. FOR NOW...CONSISTENCY WILL BE THE NAME OF THE GAME UNTIL
THE MODELS PROVIDE A BETTER PICTURE. COLD PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE WITH THICKENING MID/HI CLOUDS.
PRECIPITATION RETURNS AFTER 14Z WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE
NORTH. EXPECT A DROP TO MVFR SOON AFTER PRECIP ONSET...WITH IFR
CIGS TO FOLLOW AT MOST TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PRECIP TYPES ARE THE MAIN DIFFICULTY. STILL THINK BEST CHANCES OF
FZRA WILL LIE IN OHIO AND AT FKL/DUJ DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF
PRECIPITATION. CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA
ANYWHERE SAVE PERHAPS MGW. CHANGOVER TO SNOW WILL OCCUR AFTER 00Z
AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE
SOUTH AROUND MIDDAY AND REMAIN GUSTY AS THEY VEER TOWARDS SW/W
WITH TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR LLWS POSSIBILITIES.  CL

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY THRU ERLY FRI AS A CDFNT EXITS. WDSRPD RSTRNS
ARE LIKELY AGAIN WITH ADVNG LOW PRES SUN AND MON.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EST
     TODAY FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR PAZ007>009-015-016-023-074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR WVZ023-041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290731
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
231 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CROSSING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE UPPER OHIO REGION TODAY AND SNOW EARLY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MODELS ARE COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF FRONT AND THE STRONG WAA AS WELL. THE KEY
IS WHAT WILL THE SURFACE TEMPS DO. MODELS ARE INDICATING A SLOW
RESPONSE TO THE WAA AT THE SURFACE BUT I HAVE MY DOUBTS THAT IT
WILL BE FAST ENOUGH TO PREVENT SOME ICING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EVENT. BECAUSE OF THIS...HAVE EXTENDED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
TO COVER MOST OF MY OHIO ZONES. THERE ARE A LOT OF FACTORS AT
PLAY HERE WHICH MAKES THIS A VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST. FIRST ALOFT.
ALL THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRONG SURGE OF WARMER AIR ENVELOPING
MY ENTIRE CWA TODAY. THIS SHOWS UP QUIET WELL IN THE THERMAL
PATTERN AT 850MB AND IN THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESS PATTERNS.
I HAVE DECIDED TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS THINKING ON
PRECIP TYPES. THE THING TO WATCH WILL BE HOW THE ATMOSPHERE
RESPONDS ONCE THE PRECIP BEGINS AND THE WET BULBING EFFECTS COME
INTO PLAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A PROFILE VERY CLOSE TO THE 0
DEGREE LINE WHICH WILL KEEP THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LIQUID OR
FROZEN VERY CLOSE. AT THE SURFACE. MODELS DO SHOW SURFACE TEMPS
RISING QUICKLY AS THE PRECIP APPROACHES. HOWEVER...MY CONCERN IS
THAT WITH SUCH COLD DEWPOINTS AT THE SURFACE...WET BULBING WILL
ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN...AT LEAST IN OHIO AT THE
ONSET OF THE EVENT. OTHER FACTORS THAT NEED TO BE CONSIDERED ARE
THE WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK AND LOCALIZED EFFECTS...MAINLY SHELTERED
AREAS WHERE TEMPS WILL TAKE LONGER TO RECOVER.

MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE
FRONT SWINGS INTO CENTRAL PA. THE ONSET OF CAA WILL BE RIGHT
BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERMAL PROFILES QUICKLY BECOME MORE UNSTABLE TONIGHT. COLD
ADVECTION BEGINS IN EARNEST ALOFT AS TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE
SET TO CROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL OCCUR
SIMULTANEOUSLY TO THE DRIER AIR COMING IN...HOWEVER THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH LAYER LOOKS TO CRASH TOWARD THE SURFACE TONIGHT IN THE
RIDGES...WELL BEFORE THE MOISTURE PEELS OFF. CONSENSUS SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS FROM THE NAM AND GFS VIA BUFKIT SUGGEST AROUND 25 TO
1 BEGIN OVERNIGHT. GIVEN INSTABILITY AND UNIDIRECTIONAL
UPSLOPE...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN VERY EFFICIENT SNOW GROWTH. MODEL
QPF IS GENERALLY ONLY A COUPLE OF TENTHS...AND GIVEN ICE COVER
UPSTREAM ON LAKE ERIE...A TON OF QPF IS VERY UNLIKELY.
HOWEVER...EVEN LIGHT QPF IN THIS CASE IS LIKELY TO ADD UP TO
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. GIVEN THAT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY
THERE COULD BE AN INCH OR SO IN SOME OF THE SHELTERED HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND ANOTHER 2 TO 5 SEEM LIKELY IN THE UPSLOPE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC HELP VIA TWO ADDITIONAL WAVES
CROSSING THE AREA...3 TO 6 INCH TOTALS SEEM REASONABLE IN THE
RIDGES BY FRIDAY MORNING. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE EXPANDED
TO ACCOMMODATE THIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH LEVELS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PARTICULARLY WITH THE
SYSTEM THAT COULD AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME
FRAME. FOR NOW...CONSISTENCY WILL BE THE NAME OF THE GAME UNTIL
THE MODELS PROVIDE A BETTER PICTURE. COLD PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE WITH THICKENING MID/HI CLOUDS.
PRECIPITATION RETURNS AFTER 14Z WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE
NORTH. EXPECT A DROP TO MVFR SOON AFTER PRECIP ONSET...WITH IFR
CIGS TO FOLLOW AT MOST TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PRECIP TYPES ARE THE MAIN DIFFICULTY. STILL THINK BEST CHANCES OF
FZRA WILL LIE IN OHIO AND AT FKL/DUJ DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF
PRECIPITATION. CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA
ANYWHERE SAVE PERHAPS MGW. CHANGOVER TO SNOW WILL OCCUR AFTER 00Z
AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE
SOUTH AROUND MIDDAY AND REMAIN GUSTY AS THEY VEER TOWARDS SW/W
WITH TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR LLWS POSSIBILITIES.  CL

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY THRU ERLY FRI AS A CDFNT EXITS. WDSRPD RSTRNS
ARE LIKELY AGAIN WITH ADVNG LOW PRES SUN AND MON.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EST
     TODAY FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR PAZ007>009-015-016-023-074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR WVZ023-041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290731
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
231 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CROSSING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE UPPER OHIO REGION TODAY AND SNOW EARLY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MODELS ARE COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF FRONT AND THE STRONG WAA AS WELL. THE KEY
IS WHAT WILL THE SURFACE TEMPS DO. MODELS ARE INDICATING A SLOW
RESPONSE TO THE WAA AT THE SURFACE BUT I HAVE MY DOUBTS THAT IT
WILL BE FAST ENOUGH TO PREVENT SOME ICING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EVENT. BECAUSE OF THIS...HAVE EXTENDED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
TO COVER MOST OF MY OHIO ZONES. THERE ARE A LOT OF FACTORS AT
PLAY HERE WHICH MAKES THIS A VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST. FIRST ALOFT.
ALL THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRONG SURGE OF WARMER AIR ENVELOPING
MY ENTIRE CWA TODAY. THIS SHOWS UP QUIET WELL IN THE THERMAL
PATTERN AT 850MB AND IN THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESS PATTERNS.
I HAVE DECIDED TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS THINKING ON
PRECIP TYPES. THE THING TO WATCH WILL BE HOW THE ATMOSPHERE
RESPONDS ONCE THE PRECIP BEGINS AND THE WET BULBING EFFECTS COME
INTO PLAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A PROFILE VERY CLOSE TO THE 0
DEGREE LINE WHICH WILL KEEP THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LIQUID OR
FROZEN VERY CLOSE. AT THE SURFACE. MODELS DO SHOW SURFACE TEMPS
RISING QUICKLY AS THE PRECIP APPROACHES. HOWEVER...MY CONCERN IS
THAT WITH SUCH COLD DEWPOINTS AT THE SURFACE...WET BULBING WILL
ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN...AT LEAST IN OHIO AT THE
ONSET OF THE EVENT. OTHER FACTORS THAT NEED TO BE CONSIDERED ARE
THE WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK AND LOCALIZED EFFECTS...MAINLY SHELTERED
AREAS WHERE TEMPS WILL TAKE LONGER TO RECOVER.

MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE
FRONT SWINGS INTO CENTRAL PA. THE ONSET OF CAA WILL BE RIGHT
BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERMAL PROFILES QUICKLY BECOME MORE UNSTABLE TONIGHT. COLD
ADVECTION BEGINS IN EARNEST ALOFT AS TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE
SET TO CROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL OCCUR
SIMULTANEOUSLY TO THE DRIER AIR COMING IN...HOWEVER THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH LAYER LOOKS TO CRASH TOWARD THE SURFACE TONIGHT IN THE
RIDGES...WELL BEFORE THE MOISTURE PEELS OFF. CONSENSUS SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS FROM THE NAM AND GFS VIA BUFKIT SUGGEST AROUND 25 TO
1 BEGIN OVERNIGHT. GIVEN INSTABILITY AND UNIDIRECTIONAL
UPSLOPE...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN VERY EFFICIENT SNOW GROWTH. MODEL
QPF IS GENERALLY ONLY A COUPLE OF TENTHS...AND GIVEN ICE COVER
UPSTREAM ON LAKE ERIE...A TON OF QPF IS VERY UNLIKELY.
HOWEVER...EVEN LIGHT QPF IN THIS CASE IS LIKELY TO ADD UP TO
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. GIVEN THAT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY
THERE COULD BE AN INCH OR SO IN SOME OF THE SHELTERED HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND ANOTHER 2 TO 5 SEEM LIKELY IN THE UPSLOPE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC HELP VIA TWO ADDITIONAL WAVES
CROSSING THE AREA...3 TO 6 INCH TOTALS SEEM REASONABLE IN THE
RIDGES BY FRIDAY MORNING. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE EXPANDED
TO ACCOMMODATE THIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH LEVELS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PARTICULARLY WITH THE
SYSTEM THAT COULD AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME
FRAME. FOR NOW...CONSISTENCY WILL BE THE NAME OF THE GAME UNTIL
THE MODELS PROVIDE A BETTER PICTURE. COLD PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE WITH THICKENING MID/HI CLOUDS.
PRECIPITATION RETURNS AFTER 14Z WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE
NORTH. EXPECT A DROP TO MVFR SOON AFTER PRECIP ONSET...WITH IFR
CIGS TO FOLLOW AT MOST TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PRECIP TYPES ARE THE MAIN DIFFICULTY. STILL THINK BEST CHANCES OF
FZRA WILL LIE IN OHIO AND AT FKL/DUJ DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF
PRECIPITATION. CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA
ANYWHERE SAVE PERHAPS MGW. CHANGOVER TO SNOW WILL OCCUR AFTER 00Z
AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE
SOUTH AROUND MIDDAY AND REMAIN GUSTY AS THEY VEER TOWARDS SW/W
WITH TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR LLWS POSSIBILITIES.  CL

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY THRU ERLY FRI AS A CDFNT EXITS. WDSRPD RSTRNS
ARE LIKELY AGAIN WITH ADVNG LOW PRES SUN AND MON.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EST
     TODAY FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR PAZ007>009-015-016-023-074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR WVZ023-041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290731
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
231 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CROSSING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE UPPER OHIO REGION TODAY AND SNOW EARLY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MODELS ARE COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF FRONT AND THE STRONG WAA AS WELL. THE KEY
IS WHAT WILL THE SURFACE TEMPS DO. MODELS ARE INDICATING A SLOW
RESPONSE TO THE WAA AT THE SURFACE BUT I HAVE MY DOUBTS THAT IT
WILL BE FAST ENOUGH TO PREVENT SOME ICING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EVENT. BECAUSE OF THIS...HAVE EXTENDED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
TO COVER MOST OF MY OHIO ZONES. THERE ARE A LOT OF FACTORS AT
PLAY HERE WHICH MAKES THIS A VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST. FIRST ALOFT.
ALL THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRONG SURGE OF WARMER AIR ENVELOPING
MY ENTIRE CWA TODAY. THIS SHOWS UP QUIET WELL IN THE THERMAL
PATTERN AT 850MB AND IN THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESS PATTERNS.
I HAVE DECIDED TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS THINKING ON
PRECIP TYPES. THE THING TO WATCH WILL BE HOW THE ATMOSPHERE
RESPONDS ONCE THE PRECIP BEGINS AND THE WET BULBING EFFECTS COME
INTO PLAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A PROFILE VERY CLOSE TO THE 0
DEGREE LINE WHICH WILL KEEP THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LIQUID OR
FROZEN VERY CLOSE. AT THE SURFACE. MODELS DO SHOW SURFACE TEMPS
RISING QUICKLY AS THE PRECIP APPROACHES. HOWEVER...MY CONCERN IS
THAT WITH SUCH COLD DEWPOINTS AT THE SURFACE...WET BULBING WILL
ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN...AT LEAST IN OHIO AT THE
ONSET OF THE EVENT. OTHER FACTORS THAT NEED TO BE CONSIDERED ARE
THE WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK AND LOCALIZED EFFECTS...MAINLY SHELTERED
AREAS WHERE TEMPS WILL TAKE LONGER TO RECOVER.

MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE
FRONT SWINGS INTO CENTRAL PA. THE ONSET OF CAA WILL BE RIGHT
BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERMAL PROFILES QUICKLY BECOME MORE UNSTABLE TONIGHT. COLD
ADVECTION BEGINS IN EARNEST ALOFT AS TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE
SET TO CROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL OCCUR
SIMULTANEOUSLY TO THE DRIER AIR COMING IN...HOWEVER THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH LAYER LOOKS TO CRASH TOWARD THE SURFACE TONIGHT IN THE
RIDGES...WELL BEFORE THE MOISTURE PEELS OFF. CONSENSUS SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS FROM THE NAM AND GFS VIA BUFKIT SUGGEST AROUND 25 TO
1 BEGIN OVERNIGHT. GIVEN INSTABILITY AND UNIDIRECTIONAL
UPSLOPE...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN VERY EFFICIENT SNOW GROWTH. MODEL
QPF IS GENERALLY ONLY A COUPLE OF TENTHS...AND GIVEN ICE COVER
UPSTREAM ON LAKE ERIE...A TON OF QPF IS VERY UNLIKELY.
HOWEVER...EVEN LIGHT QPF IN THIS CASE IS LIKELY TO ADD UP TO
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. GIVEN THAT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY
THERE COULD BE AN INCH OR SO IN SOME OF THE SHELTERED HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND ANOTHER 2 TO 5 SEEM LIKELY IN THE UPSLOPE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC HELP VIA TWO ADDITIONAL WAVES
CROSSING THE AREA...3 TO 6 INCH TOTALS SEEM REASONABLE IN THE
RIDGES BY FRIDAY MORNING. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE EXPANDED
TO ACCOMMODATE THIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH LEVELS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PARTICULARLY WITH THE
SYSTEM THAT COULD AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME
FRAME. FOR NOW...CONSISTENCY WILL BE THE NAME OF THE GAME UNTIL
THE MODELS PROVIDE A BETTER PICTURE. COLD PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE WITH THICKENING MID/HI CLOUDS.
PRECIPITATION RETURNS AFTER 14Z WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE
NORTH. EXPECT A DROP TO MVFR SOON AFTER PRECIP ONSET...WITH IFR
CIGS TO FOLLOW AT MOST TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PRECIP TYPES ARE THE MAIN DIFFICULTY. STILL THINK BEST CHANCES OF
FZRA WILL LIE IN OHIO AND AT FKL/DUJ DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF
PRECIPITATION. CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA
ANYWHERE SAVE PERHAPS MGW. CHANGOVER TO SNOW WILL OCCUR AFTER 00Z
AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE
SOUTH AROUND MIDDAY AND REMAIN GUSTY AS THEY VEER TOWARDS SW/W
WITH TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR LLWS POSSIBILITIES.  CL

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY THRU ERLY FRI AS A CDFNT EXITS. WDSRPD RSTRNS
ARE LIKELY AGAIN WITH ADVNG LOW PRES SUN AND MON.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EST
     TODAY FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR PAZ007>009-015-016-023-074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR WVZ023-041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290615
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
115 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE THURSDAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SFC HI PRES SLIDES E INTO THE MID ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
A MSTLY CLEAR SKY. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPR TEENS TO LWR 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDS WITH CONTINUED BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SLY FLOW RETURNS THU AFTN AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE REGION THU NIGHT. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS
THRU THE DAY WITH HI TEMPS RANGING FM THE LWR 40S N TO UPR 40S S.
MAINTAINED A LO CHANCE FOR RA (20-30% POPS) LATE THU AFTN FOR
AREAS N AND W OF RIC...CONTINUING TO AREAS N OF I-64 THU NIGHT AS
THE FRNT MOVES THRU. DESPITE DECENT FORCING...MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING HENCE THE LO POPS. PTYPE IS RA THU AFTN/EVENG
TRANSITIONING TO POTENTIALLY SOME IP/SN MIXED IN OVRNGT. NO BIG
IMPACTS ANTICIPATED WITH VERY LITTLE QPF EXPECTED. HI PRES THEN
SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W FRI LEADING TO DRY CONDS...DECREASING
CLOUDS...AND HI TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S. CONTINUED DRY WX
INTO SAT UNDER A SUNNY-MSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TIMING DIFFERENCES ALONG WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT 12Z MODEL CHANGES
MAKES THIS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST SUN INTO MON. GFS MUCH FASTER
IN BRINGING PCPN ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC RGN SUNDAY THAN BOTH THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN. THE QUICKER GFS SOLN WOULD LEAD TO P-TYPE ISSUES
ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS SUNDAY WHILE THE SLOWER SOLNS WUD MAINLY BE
RAIN (OR A RAIN WET SNOW MIX ACROSS THE NORTH) IN THE AFTRN.
CONVERSELY...THE GFS IS QUICKER TO END PCPN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE SLOWER SOLNS KEEP PCPN GOING FOR THE BETTER PART OF MON WITH
COLDER AIR OOZING SOUTH.

WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...TRIED TO BLEND THE FORECAST AS MUCH AS PSBL
KNOWING THAT LATER MODEL RUNS SHOULD SHED BETTER LIGHT ON THE SYSTM.
DRY AND COLD SAT NIGHT WITH INCRG CLDNS. LOWS IN THE 20S XCPT L30S
SERN CSTL AREAS. KEPT A BIT OF FCST CONTINUITY AND BROUGHT LOW CHC
POPS ACROSS WRN CNTYS SUNDAY MORNING. THICKNESSES SUGGEST SOME SLEET
PSBL AT THE START ACROSS NWRN MOST CNTYS WITH RAIN OVRSPRDG THE FA
SUNDAY AFTRN AS THE LOW PRS TRACKS ACROSS NRN VA. HIGHS IN THE 40S
AS THE COLD AIR LURKS JUST NORTH OF THE FA. LIKELY RAIN SUNDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE FA...BUT LWRD TO CHC POPS AFTR MIDNIGHT. KEPT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS LATE AS THE PCPN ENDS. ANY P TYPE
ISSUES WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH CAN
COME SOUTH BEFORE PCPN ENDS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO NR 40
ACROSS NC NE CNTYS NR THE ALBEMARLE SND.

SPLIT MONDAYS FCST UP INTO 2 SEGMENTS AS WELL. CHC RAIN ALONG AND
EAST OF I95 IN THE MORNING...DRYING IT OUT IN THE AFTRN AS THE
TRAILING FRNT CLRS THE COAST. COULD EVEN SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
THE LWR MD ERN SHORE ERLY MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE U30S N TO M-U40S S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT THRU TUES NIGHT.
LOWS MON NITE UTEENS TO U20S. HIGHS TUE IN THE 30S. LOWS TUE NIGHT
IN THE 20S TO NR 30.

YET ANTHR MOIST SRN STREAM SYSTM PROGGED TO COME OUT OF THE GULF
COAST STATES AND MOVE NE ALONG THE SERN COAST WED. THIS SYTM BEARS
WATCHING AS THE COLD AIR MAY BE HARDER TO DISLODGE. WENT WITH CHC
POPS (LIQUID) FOR NOW WITH HIGHS 40-45.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AS OF 06Z. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE LATER TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ALONG WITH AN INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS...SKIES GENLY BECOMING BKN/OVC BY 15Z BUT CIGS
REMAIN 10-15K FT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA ALONG AND N OF A RIC-SBY LINE...AND PERHAPS
PCPN ENDING AS A MIX OF -RASN AT SBY. A GUSTY NW WIND IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. THAT AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH A MORE MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED SCA`S THROUGH 4 AM FOR NRN COASTAL WATERS (AND MAINTAINING THE
HEADLINES THROUGH 4 AM FOR SRN COASTAL WATERS).

ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF "SUB SCA" CNDTNS XPCTD THU BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTM APPRCHS FROM THE WEST. WINDS QUICKLY BECOME SOUTH THU AS HIGH
PRS MOVES OFF THE COAST...THEN SW AS A WRM FRNT BRIEFLY LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A STRNG CDFRNT ERLY FRI MORNING. WILL
LIKELY SEE SCA`S FOR THE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRNT.

CTRNG CAA PROGGED BEHIND THE CD FRNT FRI INTO SAT. WNDS BECOME NW
AND INCRS INTO THE GALE RANGE. DATA SUGGESTS GUSTS BTWN 40-45 KTS
ACROSS THE CSTL WTRS (HIGHEST NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISL) WITH 35 KTS
GUSTS IN THE CHES BAY. GIVEN TMPS FALLING BLO 30 DEGREES...FREEZING
SPRAY REMAINS IN FORECAST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZING SPRAY
ADVSRY ACROSS NRN CSTL WTRS WHERE AIR TMPS IN THE L20S ARE XPCTD.
SEAS/WAVES QUICKLY INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE GUSTY WINDS. SEAS AVG
7-10 FT WITH WAVES 4-5 FT DURING THIS PERIOD.

CNDTNS BEGIN TO IMPROVE SAT NIGHT AS THE CANADIAN HIGH TRACKS OVR
THE RGN. NXT SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE SUN INTO MON. WILL LIKELY SEE ANTHR ROUND OF SCA`S
WITH THIS SYSTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...JDM/MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...LKB/DAP
MARINE...LKB/MPR







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290615
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
115 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE THURSDAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SFC HI PRES SLIDES E INTO THE MID ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
A MSTLY CLEAR SKY. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPR TEENS TO LWR 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDS WITH CONTINUED BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SLY FLOW RETURNS THU AFTN AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE REGION THU NIGHT. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS
THRU THE DAY WITH HI TEMPS RANGING FM THE LWR 40S N TO UPR 40S S.
MAINTAINED A LO CHANCE FOR RA (20-30% POPS) LATE THU AFTN FOR
AREAS N AND W OF RIC...CONTINUING TO AREAS N OF I-64 THU NIGHT AS
THE FRNT MOVES THRU. DESPITE DECENT FORCING...MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING HENCE THE LO POPS. PTYPE IS RA THU AFTN/EVENG
TRANSITIONING TO POTENTIALLY SOME IP/SN MIXED IN OVRNGT. NO BIG
IMPACTS ANTICIPATED WITH VERY LITTLE QPF EXPECTED. HI PRES THEN
SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W FRI LEADING TO DRY CONDS...DECREASING
CLOUDS...AND HI TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S. CONTINUED DRY WX
INTO SAT UNDER A SUNNY-MSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TIMING DIFFERENCES ALONG WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT 12Z MODEL CHANGES
MAKES THIS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST SUN INTO MON. GFS MUCH FASTER
IN BRINGING PCPN ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC RGN SUNDAY THAN BOTH THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN. THE QUICKER GFS SOLN WOULD LEAD TO P-TYPE ISSUES
ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS SUNDAY WHILE THE SLOWER SOLNS WUD MAINLY BE
RAIN (OR A RAIN WET SNOW MIX ACROSS THE NORTH) IN THE AFTRN.
CONVERSELY...THE GFS IS QUICKER TO END PCPN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE SLOWER SOLNS KEEP PCPN GOING FOR THE BETTER PART OF MON WITH
COLDER AIR OOZING SOUTH.

WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...TRIED TO BLEND THE FORECAST AS MUCH AS PSBL
KNOWING THAT LATER MODEL RUNS SHOULD SHED BETTER LIGHT ON THE SYSTM.
DRY AND COLD SAT NIGHT WITH INCRG CLDNS. LOWS IN THE 20S XCPT L30S
SERN CSTL AREAS. KEPT A BIT OF FCST CONTINUITY AND BROUGHT LOW CHC
POPS ACROSS WRN CNTYS SUNDAY MORNING. THICKNESSES SUGGEST SOME SLEET
PSBL AT THE START ACROSS NWRN MOST CNTYS WITH RAIN OVRSPRDG THE FA
SUNDAY AFTRN AS THE LOW PRS TRACKS ACROSS NRN VA. HIGHS IN THE 40S
AS THE COLD AIR LURKS JUST NORTH OF THE FA. LIKELY RAIN SUNDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE FA...BUT LWRD TO CHC POPS AFTR MIDNIGHT. KEPT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS LATE AS THE PCPN ENDS. ANY P TYPE
ISSUES WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH CAN
COME SOUTH BEFORE PCPN ENDS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO NR 40
ACROSS NC NE CNTYS NR THE ALBEMARLE SND.

SPLIT MONDAYS FCST UP INTO 2 SEGMENTS AS WELL. CHC RAIN ALONG AND
EAST OF I95 IN THE MORNING...DRYING IT OUT IN THE AFTRN AS THE
TRAILING FRNT CLRS THE COAST. COULD EVEN SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
THE LWR MD ERN SHORE ERLY MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE U30S N TO M-U40S S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT THRU TUES NIGHT.
LOWS MON NITE UTEENS TO U20S. HIGHS TUE IN THE 30S. LOWS TUE NIGHT
IN THE 20S TO NR 30.

YET ANTHR MOIST SRN STREAM SYSTM PROGGED TO COME OUT OF THE GULF
COAST STATES AND MOVE NE ALONG THE SERN COAST WED. THIS SYTM BEARS
WATCHING AS THE COLD AIR MAY BE HARDER TO DISLODGE. WENT WITH CHC
POPS (LIQUID) FOR NOW WITH HIGHS 40-45.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AS OF 06Z. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE LATER TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ALONG WITH AN INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS...SKIES GENLY BECOMING BKN/OVC BY 15Z BUT CIGS
REMAIN 10-15K FT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA ALONG AND N OF A RIC-SBY LINE...AND PERHAPS
PCPN ENDING AS A MIX OF -RASN AT SBY. A GUSTY NW WIND IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. THAT AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH A MORE MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED SCA`S THROUGH 4 AM FOR NRN COASTAL WATERS (AND MAINTAINING THE
HEADLINES THROUGH 4 AM FOR SRN COASTAL WATERS).

ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF "SUB SCA" CNDTNS XPCTD THU BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTM APPRCHS FROM THE WEST. WINDS QUICKLY BECOME SOUTH THU AS HIGH
PRS MOVES OFF THE COAST...THEN SW AS A WRM FRNT BRIEFLY LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A STRNG CDFRNT ERLY FRI MORNING. WILL
LIKELY SEE SCA`S FOR THE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRNT.

CTRNG CAA PROGGED BEHIND THE CD FRNT FRI INTO SAT. WNDS BECOME NW
AND INCRS INTO THE GALE RANGE. DATA SUGGESTS GUSTS BTWN 40-45 KTS
ACROSS THE CSTL WTRS (HIGHEST NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISL) WITH 35 KTS
GUSTS IN THE CHES BAY. GIVEN TMPS FALLING BLO 30 DEGREES...FREEZING
SPRAY REMAINS IN FORECAST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZING SPRAY
ADVSRY ACROSS NRN CSTL WTRS WHERE AIR TMPS IN THE L20S ARE XPCTD.
SEAS/WAVES QUICKLY INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE GUSTY WINDS. SEAS AVG
7-10 FT WITH WAVES 4-5 FT DURING THIS PERIOD.

CNDTNS BEGIN TO IMPROVE SAT NIGHT AS THE CANADIAN HIGH TRACKS OVR
THE RGN. NXT SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE SUN INTO MON. WILL LIKELY SEE ANTHR ROUND OF SCA`S
WITH THIS SYSTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...JDM/MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...LKB/DAP
MARINE...LKB/MPR







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290615
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
115 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE THURSDAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SFC HI PRES SLIDES E INTO THE MID ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
A MSTLY CLEAR SKY. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPR TEENS TO LWR 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDS WITH CONTINUED BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SLY FLOW RETURNS THU AFTN AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE REGION THU NIGHT. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS
THRU THE DAY WITH HI TEMPS RANGING FM THE LWR 40S N TO UPR 40S S.
MAINTAINED A LO CHANCE FOR RA (20-30% POPS) LATE THU AFTN FOR
AREAS N AND W OF RIC...CONTINUING TO AREAS N OF I-64 THU NIGHT AS
THE FRNT MOVES THRU. DESPITE DECENT FORCING...MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING HENCE THE LO POPS. PTYPE IS RA THU AFTN/EVENG
TRANSITIONING TO POTENTIALLY SOME IP/SN MIXED IN OVRNGT. NO BIG
IMPACTS ANTICIPATED WITH VERY LITTLE QPF EXPECTED. HI PRES THEN
SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W FRI LEADING TO DRY CONDS...DECREASING
CLOUDS...AND HI TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S. CONTINUED DRY WX
INTO SAT UNDER A SUNNY-MSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TIMING DIFFERENCES ALONG WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT 12Z MODEL CHANGES
MAKES THIS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST SUN INTO MON. GFS MUCH FASTER
IN BRINGING PCPN ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC RGN SUNDAY THAN BOTH THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN. THE QUICKER GFS SOLN WOULD LEAD TO P-TYPE ISSUES
ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS SUNDAY WHILE THE SLOWER SOLNS WUD MAINLY BE
RAIN (OR A RAIN WET SNOW MIX ACROSS THE NORTH) IN THE AFTRN.
CONVERSELY...THE GFS IS QUICKER TO END PCPN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE SLOWER SOLNS KEEP PCPN GOING FOR THE BETTER PART OF MON WITH
COLDER AIR OOZING SOUTH.

WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...TRIED TO BLEND THE FORECAST AS MUCH AS PSBL
KNOWING THAT LATER MODEL RUNS SHOULD SHED BETTER LIGHT ON THE SYSTM.
DRY AND COLD SAT NIGHT WITH INCRG CLDNS. LOWS IN THE 20S XCPT L30S
SERN CSTL AREAS. KEPT A BIT OF FCST CONTINUITY AND BROUGHT LOW CHC
POPS ACROSS WRN CNTYS SUNDAY MORNING. THICKNESSES SUGGEST SOME SLEET
PSBL AT THE START ACROSS NWRN MOST CNTYS WITH RAIN OVRSPRDG THE FA
SUNDAY AFTRN AS THE LOW PRS TRACKS ACROSS NRN VA. HIGHS IN THE 40S
AS THE COLD AIR LURKS JUST NORTH OF THE FA. LIKELY RAIN SUNDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE FA...BUT LWRD TO CHC POPS AFTR MIDNIGHT. KEPT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS LATE AS THE PCPN ENDS. ANY P TYPE
ISSUES WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH CAN
COME SOUTH BEFORE PCPN ENDS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO NR 40
ACROSS NC NE CNTYS NR THE ALBEMARLE SND.

SPLIT MONDAYS FCST UP INTO 2 SEGMENTS AS WELL. CHC RAIN ALONG AND
EAST OF I95 IN THE MORNING...DRYING IT OUT IN THE AFTRN AS THE
TRAILING FRNT CLRS THE COAST. COULD EVEN SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
THE LWR MD ERN SHORE ERLY MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE U30S N TO M-U40S S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT THRU TUES NIGHT.
LOWS MON NITE UTEENS TO U20S. HIGHS TUE IN THE 30S. LOWS TUE NIGHT
IN THE 20S TO NR 30.

YET ANTHR MOIST SRN STREAM SYSTM PROGGED TO COME OUT OF THE GULF
COAST STATES AND MOVE NE ALONG THE SERN COAST WED. THIS SYTM BEARS
WATCHING AS THE COLD AIR MAY BE HARDER TO DISLODGE. WENT WITH CHC
POPS (LIQUID) FOR NOW WITH HIGHS 40-45.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AS OF 06Z. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE LATER TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ALONG WITH AN INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS...SKIES GENLY BECOMING BKN/OVC BY 15Z BUT CIGS
REMAIN 10-15K FT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA ALONG AND N OF A RIC-SBY LINE...AND PERHAPS
PCPN ENDING AS A MIX OF -RASN AT SBY. A GUSTY NW WIND IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. THAT AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH A MORE MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED SCA`S THROUGH 4 AM FOR NRN COASTAL WATERS (AND MAINTAINING THE
HEADLINES THROUGH 4 AM FOR SRN COASTAL WATERS).

ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF "SUB SCA" CNDTNS XPCTD THU BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTM APPRCHS FROM THE WEST. WINDS QUICKLY BECOME SOUTH THU AS HIGH
PRS MOVES OFF THE COAST...THEN SW AS A WRM FRNT BRIEFLY LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A STRNG CDFRNT ERLY FRI MORNING. WILL
LIKELY SEE SCA`S FOR THE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRNT.

CTRNG CAA PROGGED BEHIND THE CD FRNT FRI INTO SAT. WNDS BECOME NW
AND INCRS INTO THE GALE RANGE. DATA SUGGESTS GUSTS BTWN 40-45 KTS
ACROSS THE CSTL WTRS (HIGHEST NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISL) WITH 35 KTS
GUSTS IN THE CHES BAY. GIVEN TMPS FALLING BLO 30 DEGREES...FREEZING
SPRAY REMAINS IN FORECAST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZING SPRAY
ADVSRY ACROSS NRN CSTL WTRS WHERE AIR TMPS IN THE L20S ARE XPCTD.
SEAS/WAVES QUICKLY INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE GUSTY WINDS. SEAS AVG
7-10 FT WITH WAVES 4-5 FT DURING THIS PERIOD.

CNDTNS BEGIN TO IMPROVE SAT NIGHT AS THE CANADIAN HIGH TRACKS OVR
THE RGN. NXT SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE SUN INTO MON. WILL LIKELY SEE ANTHR ROUND OF SCA`S
WITH THIS SYSTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...JDM/MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...LKB/DAP
MARINE...LKB/MPR







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290615
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
115 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE THURSDAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SFC HI PRES SLIDES E INTO THE MID ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
A MSTLY CLEAR SKY. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPR TEENS TO LWR 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDS WITH CONTINUED BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SLY FLOW RETURNS THU AFTN AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE REGION THU NIGHT. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS
THRU THE DAY WITH HI TEMPS RANGING FM THE LWR 40S N TO UPR 40S S.
MAINTAINED A LO CHANCE FOR RA (20-30% POPS) LATE THU AFTN FOR
AREAS N AND W OF RIC...CONTINUING TO AREAS N OF I-64 THU NIGHT AS
THE FRNT MOVES THRU. DESPITE DECENT FORCING...MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING HENCE THE LO POPS. PTYPE IS RA THU AFTN/EVENG
TRANSITIONING TO POTENTIALLY SOME IP/SN MIXED IN OVRNGT. NO BIG
IMPACTS ANTICIPATED WITH VERY LITTLE QPF EXPECTED. HI PRES THEN
SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W FRI LEADING TO DRY CONDS...DECREASING
CLOUDS...AND HI TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S. CONTINUED DRY WX
INTO SAT UNDER A SUNNY-MSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TIMING DIFFERENCES ALONG WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT 12Z MODEL CHANGES
MAKES THIS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST SUN INTO MON. GFS MUCH FASTER
IN BRINGING PCPN ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC RGN SUNDAY THAN BOTH THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN. THE QUICKER GFS SOLN WOULD LEAD TO P-TYPE ISSUES
ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS SUNDAY WHILE THE SLOWER SOLNS WUD MAINLY BE
RAIN (OR A RAIN WET SNOW MIX ACROSS THE NORTH) IN THE AFTRN.
CONVERSELY...THE GFS IS QUICKER TO END PCPN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE SLOWER SOLNS KEEP PCPN GOING FOR THE BETTER PART OF MON WITH
COLDER AIR OOZING SOUTH.

WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...TRIED TO BLEND THE FORECAST AS MUCH AS PSBL
KNOWING THAT LATER MODEL RUNS SHOULD SHED BETTER LIGHT ON THE SYSTM.
DRY AND COLD SAT NIGHT WITH INCRG CLDNS. LOWS IN THE 20S XCPT L30S
SERN CSTL AREAS. KEPT A BIT OF FCST CONTINUITY AND BROUGHT LOW CHC
POPS ACROSS WRN CNTYS SUNDAY MORNING. THICKNESSES SUGGEST SOME SLEET
PSBL AT THE START ACROSS NWRN MOST CNTYS WITH RAIN OVRSPRDG THE FA
SUNDAY AFTRN AS THE LOW PRS TRACKS ACROSS NRN VA. HIGHS IN THE 40S
AS THE COLD AIR LURKS JUST NORTH OF THE FA. LIKELY RAIN SUNDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE FA...BUT LWRD TO CHC POPS AFTR MIDNIGHT. KEPT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS LATE AS THE PCPN ENDS. ANY P TYPE
ISSUES WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH CAN
COME SOUTH BEFORE PCPN ENDS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO NR 40
ACROSS NC NE CNTYS NR THE ALBEMARLE SND.

SPLIT MONDAYS FCST UP INTO 2 SEGMENTS AS WELL. CHC RAIN ALONG AND
EAST OF I95 IN THE MORNING...DRYING IT OUT IN THE AFTRN AS THE
TRAILING FRNT CLRS THE COAST. COULD EVEN SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
THE LWR MD ERN SHORE ERLY MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE U30S N TO M-U40S S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT THRU TUES NIGHT.
LOWS MON NITE UTEENS TO U20S. HIGHS TUE IN THE 30S. LOWS TUE NIGHT
IN THE 20S TO NR 30.

YET ANTHR MOIST SRN STREAM SYSTM PROGGED TO COME OUT OF THE GULF
COAST STATES AND MOVE NE ALONG THE SERN COAST WED. THIS SYTM BEARS
WATCHING AS THE COLD AIR MAY BE HARDER TO DISLODGE. WENT WITH CHC
POPS (LIQUID) FOR NOW WITH HIGHS 40-45.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AS OF 06Z. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE LATER TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ALONG WITH AN INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS...SKIES GENLY BECOMING BKN/OVC BY 15Z BUT CIGS
REMAIN 10-15K FT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA ALONG AND N OF A RIC-SBY LINE...AND PERHAPS
PCPN ENDING AS A MIX OF -RASN AT SBY. A GUSTY NW WIND IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. THAT AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH A MORE MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED SCA`S THROUGH 4 AM FOR NRN COASTAL WATERS (AND MAINTAINING THE
HEADLINES THROUGH 4 AM FOR SRN COASTAL WATERS).

ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF "SUB SCA" CNDTNS XPCTD THU BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTM APPRCHS FROM THE WEST. WINDS QUICKLY BECOME SOUTH THU AS HIGH
PRS MOVES OFF THE COAST...THEN SW AS A WRM FRNT BRIEFLY LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A STRNG CDFRNT ERLY FRI MORNING. WILL
LIKELY SEE SCA`S FOR THE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRNT.

CTRNG CAA PROGGED BEHIND THE CD FRNT FRI INTO SAT. WNDS BECOME NW
AND INCRS INTO THE GALE RANGE. DATA SUGGESTS GUSTS BTWN 40-45 KTS
ACROSS THE CSTL WTRS (HIGHEST NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISL) WITH 35 KTS
GUSTS IN THE CHES BAY. GIVEN TMPS FALLING BLO 30 DEGREES...FREEZING
SPRAY REMAINS IN FORECAST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZING SPRAY
ADVSRY ACROSS NRN CSTL WTRS WHERE AIR TMPS IN THE L20S ARE XPCTD.
SEAS/WAVES QUICKLY INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE GUSTY WINDS. SEAS AVG
7-10 FT WITH WAVES 4-5 FT DURING THIS PERIOD.

CNDTNS BEGIN TO IMPROVE SAT NIGHT AS THE CANADIAN HIGH TRACKS OVR
THE RGN. NXT SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE SUN INTO MON. WILL LIKELY SEE ANTHR ROUND OF SCA`S
WITH THIS SYSTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...JDM/MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...LKB/DAP
MARINE...LKB/MPR







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290549
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1249 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CROSSING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE UPPER OHIO REGION TODAY AND SNOW EARLY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT IN GOOD SHAPE. JUST NEED TO KEEP UP WITH THE TEMPS.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
AHEAD OF FRONT AND THE STRONG WAA AS WELL. THE KEY IS WHAT WILL
THE SURFACE TEMPS DO. MODELS ARE INDICATING A SLOW RESPONSE TO THE
WAA AT THE SURFACE BUT I HAVE MY DOUBTS THAT IT WILL BE FAST
ENOUGH TO PREVENT SOME ICING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT. THERE
ARE A LOT OF FACTORS AT PLAY HERE WHICH MAKES THIS A VERY
DIFFICULT FORECAST. FIRST ALOFT. ALL THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A
STRONG SURGE OF WARMER AIR ENVELOPING MY ENTIRE CWA TODAY. THIS
SHOWS UP QUIET WELL IN THE THERMAL PATTERN AT 850MB AND IN THE LOW
AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESS PATTERNS. I HAVE DECIDED TO CHANGE VERY
LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS THINKING ON PRECIP TYPES. THE THING TO WATCH
WILL BE HOW THE ATMOSPHERE RESPONDS ONCE THE PRECIP BEGINS AND THE
WET BULBING EFFECTS COME INTO PLAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A PROFILE
VERY CLOSE TO THE 0 DEGREE LINE WHICH WILL KEEP THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN LIQUID OR FROZEN VERY CLOSE. AT THE SURFACE. MODELS DO
SHOW SURFACE TEMPS RISING QUICKLY AS THE PRECIP APPROACHES.
HOWEVER...MY CONCERN IS THAT WITH SUCH COLD DEWPOINTS AT THE
SURFACE...WET BULBING WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN...AT LEAST IN OHIO AT THE ONSET OF THE EVENT. OTHER FACTORS
THAT NEED TO BE CONSIDERED ARE THE WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK AND
LOCALIZED EFFECTS...MAINLY SHELTERED AREAS WHERE TEMPS WILL TAKE
LONGER TO RECOVER.

MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE
FRONT SWINGS INTO CENTRAL PA. THE ONSET OF CAA WILL BE RIGHT
BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERMAL PROFILES QUICKLY BECOME MORE UNSTABLE TONIGHT. COLD
ADVECTION BEGINS IN EARNEST ALOFT AS TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE
SET TO CROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL OCCUR
SIMULTANEOUSLY TO THE DRIER AIR COMING IN...HOWEVER THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH LAYER LOOKS TO CRASH TOWARD THE SURFACE TONIGHT IN THE
RIDGES...WELL BEFORE THE MOISTURE PEELS OFF. CONSENSUS SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS FROM THE NAM AND GFS VIA BUFKIT SUGGEST AROUND 25 TO
1 BEGIN OVERNIGHT. GIVEN INSTABILITY AND UNIDIRECTIONAL
UPSLOPE...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN VERY EFFICIENT SNOW GROWTH. MODEL
QPF IS GENERALLY ONLY A COUPLE OF TENTHS...AND GIVEN ICE COVER
UPSTREAM ON LAKE ERIE...A TON OF QPF IS VERY UNLIKELY.
HOWEVER...EVEN LIGHT QPF IN THIS CASE IS LIKELY TO ADD UP TO
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. GIVEN THAT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY
THERE COULD BE AN INCH OR SO IN SOME OF THE SHELTERED HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND ANOTHER 2 TO 5 SEEM LIKELY IN THE UPSLOPE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC HELP VIA TWO ADDITIONAL WAVES
CROSSING THE AREA...3 TO 6 INCH TOTALS SEEM REASONABLE IN THE
RIDGES BY FRIDAY MORNING. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE EXPANDED
TO ACCOMMODATE THIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH LEVELS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PARTICULARLY WITH THE
SYSTEM THAT COULD AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME
FRAME. FOR NOW...CONSISTENCY WILL BE THE NAME OF THE GAME UNTIL
THE MODELS PROVIDE A BETTER PICTURE. COLD PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE WITH THICKENING MID/HI CLOUDS.
PRECIPITATION RETURNS AFTER 14Z WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE
NORTH. EXPECT A DROP TO MVFR SOON AFTER PRECIP ONSET...WITH IFR
CIGS TO FOLLOW AT MOST TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PRECIP TYPES ARE THE MAIN DIFFICULTY. STILL THINK BEST CHANCES OF
FZRA WILL LIE IN OHIO AND AT FKL/DUJ DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF
PRECIPITATION. CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA
ANYWHERE SAVE PERHAPS MGW. CHANGOVER TO SNOW WILL OCCUR AFTER 00Z
AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE
SOUTH AROUND MIDDAY AND REMAIN GUSTY AS THEY VEER TOWARDS SW/W
WITH TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR LLWS POSSIBILITIES.  CL

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY THRU ERLY FRI AS A CDFNT EXITS. WDSRPD RSTRNS
ARE LIKELY AGAIN WITH ADVNG LOW PRES SUN AND MON.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EST
     TODAY FOR OHZ048-057.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR PAZ007>009-015-016-023-074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR WVZ023-041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290549
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1249 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CROSSING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE UPPER OHIO REGION TODAY AND SNOW EARLY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT IN GOOD SHAPE. JUST NEED TO KEEP UP WITH THE TEMPS.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
AHEAD OF FRONT AND THE STRONG WAA AS WELL. THE KEY IS WHAT WILL
THE SURFACE TEMPS DO. MODELS ARE INDICATING A SLOW RESPONSE TO THE
WAA AT THE SURFACE BUT I HAVE MY DOUBTS THAT IT WILL BE FAST
ENOUGH TO PREVENT SOME ICING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT. THERE
ARE A LOT OF FACTORS AT PLAY HERE WHICH MAKES THIS A VERY
DIFFICULT FORECAST. FIRST ALOFT. ALL THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A
STRONG SURGE OF WARMER AIR ENVELOPING MY ENTIRE CWA TODAY. THIS
SHOWS UP QUIET WELL IN THE THERMAL PATTERN AT 850MB AND IN THE LOW
AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESS PATTERNS. I HAVE DECIDED TO CHANGE VERY
LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS THINKING ON PRECIP TYPES. THE THING TO WATCH
WILL BE HOW THE ATMOSPHERE RESPONDS ONCE THE PRECIP BEGINS AND THE
WET BULBING EFFECTS COME INTO PLAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A PROFILE
VERY CLOSE TO THE 0 DEGREE LINE WHICH WILL KEEP THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN LIQUID OR FROZEN VERY CLOSE. AT THE SURFACE. MODELS DO
SHOW SURFACE TEMPS RISING QUICKLY AS THE PRECIP APPROACHES.
HOWEVER...MY CONCERN IS THAT WITH SUCH COLD DEWPOINTS AT THE
SURFACE...WET BULBING WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN...AT LEAST IN OHIO AT THE ONSET OF THE EVENT. OTHER FACTORS
THAT NEED TO BE CONSIDERED ARE THE WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK AND
LOCALIZED EFFECTS...MAINLY SHELTERED AREAS WHERE TEMPS WILL TAKE
LONGER TO RECOVER.

MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE
FRONT SWINGS INTO CENTRAL PA. THE ONSET OF CAA WILL BE RIGHT
BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERMAL PROFILES QUICKLY BECOME MORE UNSTABLE TONIGHT. COLD
ADVECTION BEGINS IN EARNEST ALOFT AS TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE
SET TO CROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL OCCUR
SIMULTANEOUSLY TO THE DRIER AIR COMING IN...HOWEVER THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH LAYER LOOKS TO CRASH TOWARD THE SURFACE TONIGHT IN THE
RIDGES...WELL BEFORE THE MOISTURE PEELS OFF. CONSENSUS SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS FROM THE NAM AND GFS VIA BUFKIT SUGGEST AROUND 25 TO
1 BEGIN OVERNIGHT. GIVEN INSTABILITY AND UNIDIRECTIONAL
UPSLOPE...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN VERY EFFICIENT SNOW GROWTH. MODEL
QPF IS GENERALLY ONLY A COUPLE OF TENTHS...AND GIVEN ICE COVER
UPSTREAM ON LAKE ERIE...A TON OF QPF IS VERY UNLIKELY.
HOWEVER...EVEN LIGHT QPF IN THIS CASE IS LIKELY TO ADD UP TO
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. GIVEN THAT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY
THERE COULD BE AN INCH OR SO IN SOME OF THE SHELTERED HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND ANOTHER 2 TO 5 SEEM LIKELY IN THE UPSLOPE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC HELP VIA TWO ADDITIONAL WAVES
CROSSING THE AREA...3 TO 6 INCH TOTALS SEEM REASONABLE IN THE
RIDGES BY FRIDAY MORNING. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE EXPANDED
TO ACCOMMODATE THIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH LEVELS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PARTICULARLY WITH THE
SYSTEM THAT COULD AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME
FRAME. FOR NOW...CONSISTENCY WILL BE THE NAME OF THE GAME UNTIL
THE MODELS PROVIDE A BETTER PICTURE. COLD PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE WITH THICKENING MID/HI CLOUDS.
PRECIPITATION RETURNS AFTER 14Z WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE
NORTH. EXPECT A DROP TO MVFR SOON AFTER PRECIP ONSET...WITH IFR
CIGS TO FOLLOW AT MOST TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PRECIP TYPES ARE THE MAIN DIFFICULTY. STILL THINK BEST CHANCES OF
FZRA WILL LIE IN OHIO AND AT FKL/DUJ DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF
PRECIPITATION. CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA
ANYWHERE SAVE PERHAPS MGW. CHANGOVER TO SNOW WILL OCCUR AFTER 00Z
AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE
SOUTH AROUND MIDDAY AND REMAIN GUSTY AS THEY VEER TOWARDS SW/W
WITH TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR LLWS POSSIBILITIES.  CL

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY THRU ERLY FRI AS A CDFNT EXITS. WDSRPD RSTRNS
ARE LIKELY AGAIN WITH ADVNG LOW PRES SUN AND MON.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EST
     TODAY FOR OHZ048-057.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR PAZ007>009-015-016-023-074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR WVZ023-041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290549
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1249 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CROSSING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE UPPER OHIO REGION TODAY AND SNOW EARLY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT IN GOOD SHAPE. JUST NEED TO KEEP UP WITH THE TEMPS.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
AHEAD OF FRONT AND THE STRONG WAA AS WELL. THE KEY IS WHAT WILL
THE SURFACE TEMPS DO. MODELS ARE INDICATING A SLOW RESPONSE TO THE
WAA AT THE SURFACE BUT I HAVE MY DOUBTS THAT IT WILL BE FAST
ENOUGH TO PREVENT SOME ICING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT. THERE
ARE A LOT OF FACTORS AT PLAY HERE WHICH MAKES THIS A VERY
DIFFICULT FORECAST. FIRST ALOFT. ALL THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A
STRONG SURGE OF WARMER AIR ENVELOPING MY ENTIRE CWA TODAY. THIS
SHOWS UP QUIET WELL IN THE THERMAL PATTERN AT 850MB AND IN THE LOW
AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESS PATTERNS. I HAVE DECIDED TO CHANGE VERY
LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS THINKING ON PRECIP TYPES. THE THING TO WATCH
WILL BE HOW THE ATMOSPHERE RESPONDS ONCE THE PRECIP BEGINS AND THE
WET BULBING EFFECTS COME INTO PLAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A PROFILE
VERY CLOSE TO THE 0 DEGREE LINE WHICH WILL KEEP THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN LIQUID OR FROZEN VERY CLOSE. AT THE SURFACE. MODELS DO
SHOW SURFACE TEMPS RISING QUICKLY AS THE PRECIP APPROACHES.
HOWEVER...MY CONCERN IS THAT WITH SUCH COLD DEWPOINTS AT THE
SURFACE...WET BULBING WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN...AT LEAST IN OHIO AT THE ONSET OF THE EVENT. OTHER FACTORS
THAT NEED TO BE CONSIDERED ARE THE WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK AND
LOCALIZED EFFECTS...MAINLY SHELTERED AREAS WHERE TEMPS WILL TAKE
LONGER TO RECOVER.

MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE
FRONT SWINGS INTO CENTRAL PA. THE ONSET OF CAA WILL BE RIGHT
BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERMAL PROFILES QUICKLY BECOME MORE UNSTABLE TONIGHT. COLD
ADVECTION BEGINS IN EARNEST ALOFT AS TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE
SET TO CROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL OCCUR
SIMULTANEOUSLY TO THE DRIER AIR COMING IN...HOWEVER THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH LAYER LOOKS TO CRASH TOWARD THE SURFACE TONIGHT IN THE
RIDGES...WELL BEFORE THE MOISTURE PEELS OFF. CONSENSUS SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS FROM THE NAM AND GFS VIA BUFKIT SUGGEST AROUND 25 TO
1 BEGIN OVERNIGHT. GIVEN INSTABILITY AND UNIDIRECTIONAL
UPSLOPE...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN VERY EFFICIENT SNOW GROWTH. MODEL
QPF IS GENERALLY ONLY A COUPLE OF TENTHS...AND GIVEN ICE COVER
UPSTREAM ON LAKE ERIE...A TON OF QPF IS VERY UNLIKELY.
HOWEVER...EVEN LIGHT QPF IN THIS CASE IS LIKELY TO ADD UP TO
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. GIVEN THAT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY
THERE COULD BE AN INCH OR SO IN SOME OF THE SHELTERED HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND ANOTHER 2 TO 5 SEEM LIKELY IN THE UPSLOPE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC HELP VIA TWO ADDITIONAL WAVES
CROSSING THE AREA...3 TO 6 INCH TOTALS SEEM REASONABLE IN THE
RIDGES BY FRIDAY MORNING. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE EXPANDED
TO ACCOMMODATE THIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH LEVELS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PARTICULARLY WITH THE
SYSTEM THAT COULD AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME
FRAME. FOR NOW...CONSISTENCY WILL BE THE NAME OF THE GAME UNTIL
THE MODELS PROVIDE A BETTER PICTURE. COLD PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE WITH THICKENING MID/HI CLOUDS.
PRECIPITATION RETURNS AFTER 14Z WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE
NORTH. EXPECT A DROP TO MVFR SOON AFTER PRECIP ONSET...WITH IFR
CIGS TO FOLLOW AT MOST TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PRECIP TYPES ARE THE MAIN DIFFICULTY. STILL THINK BEST CHANCES OF
FZRA WILL LIE IN OHIO AND AT FKL/DUJ DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF
PRECIPITATION. CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA
ANYWHERE SAVE PERHAPS MGW. CHANGOVER TO SNOW WILL OCCUR AFTER 00Z
AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE
SOUTH AROUND MIDDAY AND REMAIN GUSTY AS THEY VEER TOWARDS SW/W
WITH TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR LLWS POSSIBILITIES.  CL

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY THRU ERLY FRI AS A CDFNT EXITS. WDSRPD RSTRNS
ARE LIKELY AGAIN WITH ADVNG LOW PRES SUN AND MON.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EST
     TODAY FOR OHZ048-057.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR PAZ007>009-015-016-023-074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR WVZ023-041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290549
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1249 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CROSSING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE UPPER OHIO REGION TODAY AND SNOW EARLY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT IN GOOD SHAPE. JUST NEED TO KEEP UP WITH THE TEMPS.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
AHEAD OF FRONT AND THE STRONG WAA AS WELL. THE KEY IS WHAT WILL
THE SURFACE TEMPS DO. MODELS ARE INDICATING A SLOW RESPONSE TO THE
WAA AT THE SURFACE BUT I HAVE MY DOUBTS THAT IT WILL BE FAST
ENOUGH TO PREVENT SOME ICING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT. THERE
ARE A LOT OF FACTORS AT PLAY HERE WHICH MAKES THIS A VERY
DIFFICULT FORECAST. FIRST ALOFT. ALL THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A
STRONG SURGE OF WARMER AIR ENVELOPING MY ENTIRE CWA TODAY. THIS
SHOWS UP QUIET WELL IN THE THERMAL PATTERN AT 850MB AND IN THE LOW
AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESS PATTERNS. I HAVE DECIDED TO CHANGE VERY
LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS THINKING ON PRECIP TYPES. THE THING TO WATCH
WILL BE HOW THE ATMOSPHERE RESPONDS ONCE THE PRECIP BEGINS AND THE
WET BULBING EFFECTS COME INTO PLAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A PROFILE
VERY CLOSE TO THE 0 DEGREE LINE WHICH WILL KEEP THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN LIQUID OR FROZEN VERY CLOSE. AT THE SURFACE. MODELS DO
SHOW SURFACE TEMPS RISING QUICKLY AS THE PRECIP APPROACHES.
HOWEVER...MY CONCERN IS THAT WITH SUCH COLD DEWPOINTS AT THE
SURFACE...WET BULBING WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN...AT LEAST IN OHIO AT THE ONSET OF THE EVENT. OTHER FACTORS
THAT NEED TO BE CONSIDERED ARE THE WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK AND
LOCALIZED EFFECTS...MAINLY SHELTERED AREAS WHERE TEMPS WILL TAKE
LONGER TO RECOVER.

MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE
FRONT SWINGS INTO CENTRAL PA. THE ONSET OF CAA WILL BE RIGHT
BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERMAL PROFILES QUICKLY BECOME MORE UNSTABLE TONIGHT. COLD
ADVECTION BEGINS IN EARNEST ALOFT AS TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE
SET TO CROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL OCCUR
SIMULTANEOUSLY TO THE DRIER AIR COMING IN...HOWEVER THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH LAYER LOOKS TO CRASH TOWARD THE SURFACE TONIGHT IN THE
RIDGES...WELL BEFORE THE MOISTURE PEELS OFF. CONSENSUS SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS FROM THE NAM AND GFS VIA BUFKIT SUGGEST AROUND 25 TO
1 BEGIN OVERNIGHT. GIVEN INSTABILITY AND UNIDIRECTIONAL
UPSLOPE...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN VERY EFFICIENT SNOW GROWTH. MODEL
QPF IS GENERALLY ONLY A COUPLE OF TENTHS...AND GIVEN ICE COVER
UPSTREAM ON LAKE ERIE...A TON OF QPF IS VERY UNLIKELY.
HOWEVER...EVEN LIGHT QPF IN THIS CASE IS LIKELY TO ADD UP TO
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. GIVEN THAT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY
THERE COULD BE AN INCH OR SO IN SOME OF THE SHELTERED HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND ANOTHER 2 TO 5 SEEM LIKELY IN THE UPSLOPE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC HELP VIA TWO ADDITIONAL WAVES
CROSSING THE AREA...3 TO 6 INCH TOTALS SEEM REASONABLE IN THE
RIDGES BY FRIDAY MORNING. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE EXPANDED
TO ACCOMMODATE THIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH LEVELS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PARTICULARLY WITH THE
SYSTEM THAT COULD AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME
FRAME. FOR NOW...CONSISTENCY WILL BE THE NAME OF THE GAME UNTIL
THE MODELS PROVIDE A BETTER PICTURE. COLD PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE WITH THICKENING MID/HI CLOUDS.
PRECIPITATION RETURNS AFTER 14Z WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE
NORTH. EXPECT A DROP TO MVFR SOON AFTER PRECIP ONSET...WITH IFR
CIGS TO FOLLOW AT MOST TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PRECIP TYPES ARE THE MAIN DIFFICULTY. STILL THINK BEST CHANCES OF
FZRA WILL LIE IN OHIO AND AT FKL/DUJ DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF
PRECIPITATION. CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA
ANYWHERE SAVE PERHAPS MGW. CHANGOVER TO SNOW WILL OCCUR AFTER 00Z
AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE
SOUTH AROUND MIDDAY AND REMAIN GUSTY AS THEY VEER TOWARDS SW/W
WITH TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR LLWS POSSIBILITIES.  CL

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY THRU ERLY FRI AS A CDFNT EXITS. WDSRPD RSTRNS
ARE LIKELY AGAIN WITH ADVNG LOW PRES SUN AND MON.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EST
     TODAY FOR OHZ048-057.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR PAZ007>009-015-016-023-074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR WVZ023-041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290537 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1237 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CROSSING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE UPPER OHIO REGION TODAY AND SNOW EARLY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT IN GOOD SHAPE. JUST NEED TO KEEP UP WITH THE TEMPS.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
AHEAD OF FRONT AND THE STRONG WAA AS WELL. THE KEY IS WHAT WILL
THE SURFACE TEMPS DO. MODELS ARE INDICATING A SLOW RESPONSE TO THE
WAA AT THE SURFACE BUT I HAVE MY DOUBTS THAT IT WILL BE FAST
ENOUGH TO PREVENT SOME ICING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT. THERE
ARE A LOT OF FACTORS AT PLAY HERE WHICH MAKES THIS A VERY
DIFFICULT FORECAST. FIRST ALOFT. ALL THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A
STRONG SURGE OF WARMER AIR ENVELOPING MY ENTIRE CWA TODAY. THIS
SHOWS UP QUIET WELL IN THE THERMAL PATTERN AT 850MB AND IN THE LOW
AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESS PATTERNS. I HAVE DECIDED TO CHANGE VERY
LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS THINKING ON PRECIP TYPES. THE THING TO WATCH
WILL BE HOW THE ATMOSPHERE RESPONDS ONCE THE PRECIP BEGINS AND THE
WET BULBING EFFECTS COME INTO PLAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A PROFILE
VERY CLOSE TO THE 0 DEGREE LINE WHICH WILL KEEP THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN LIQUID OR FROZEN VERY CLOSE. AT THE SURFACE. MODELS DO
SHOW SURFACE TEMPS RISING QUICKLY AS THE PRECIP APPROACHES.
HOWEVER...MY CONCERN IS THAT WITH SUCH COLD DEWPOINTS AT THE
SURFACE...WET BULBING WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN...AT LEAST IN OHIO AT THE ONSET OF THE EVENT. OTHER FACTORS
THAT NEED TO BE CONSIDERED ARE THE WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK AND
LOCALIZED EFFECTS...MAINLY SHELTERED AREAS WHERE TEMPS WILL TAKE
LONGER TO RECOVER.

MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE
FRONT SWINGS INTO CENTRAL PA. THE ONSET OF CAA WILL BE RIGHT
BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERMAL PROFILES QUICKLY BECOME MORE UNSTABLE TONIGHT. COLD
ADVECTION BEGINS IN EARNEST ALOFT AS TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE
SET TO CROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL OCCUR
SIMULTANEOUSLY TO THE DRIER AIR COMING IN...HOWEVER THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH LAYER LOOKS TO CRASH TOWARD THE SURFACE TONIGHT IN THE
RIDGES...WELL BEFORE THE MOISTURE PEELS OFF. CONSENSUS SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS FROM THE NAM AND GFS VIA BUFKIT SUGGEST AROUND 25 TO
1 BEGIN OVERNIGHT. GIVEN INSTABILITY AND UNIDIRECTIONAL
UPSLOPE...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN VERY EFFICIENT SNOW GROWTH. MODEL
QPF IS GENERALLY ONLY A COUPLE OF TENTHS...AND GIVEN ICE COVER
UPSTREAM ON LAKE ERIE...A TON OF QPF IS VERY UNLIKELY.
HOWEVER...EVEN LIGHT QPF IN THIS CASE IS LIKELY TO ADD UP TO
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. GIVEN THAT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY
THERE COULD BE AN INCH OR SO IN SOME OF THE SHELTERED HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND ANOTHER 2 TO 5 SEEM LIKELY IN THE UPSLOPE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC HELP VIA TWO ADDITIONAL WAVES
CROSSING THE AREA...3 TO 6 INCH TOTALS SEEM REASONABLE IN THE
RIDGES BY FRIDAY MORNING. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE EXPANDED
TO ACCOMMODATE THIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH LEVELS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PARTICULARLY WITH THE
SYSTEM THAT COULD AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME
FRAME. FOR NOW...CONSISTENCY WILL BE THE NAME OF THE GAME UNTIL
THE MODELS PROVIDE A BETTER PICTURE. COLD PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY HIGH
CLOUDS. LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING PRECIPITATION TO ALL SITES FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE TRICKY...WITH MGW THE ONLY
SITE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WILL NOT HAVE FREEZING RAIN. HAVE
ONLY MENTIONED FZRA EXPLICITLY IN THE TAFS FOR FKL/DUJ FOR A
COUPLE HOUR TIME PERIOD...BUT A BRIEF 1-3 HOUR PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT OTHER TERMINALS. SIMILIARLY...WHILE
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS ONLY INCLUDED IN THE ZZV TAF...CANNOT RULE
OUT A BRIEF 1-3 HOUR PERIOD OF LLWS AT OTHER TERMINALS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION STARTS AND HIGHER WINDS ALOFT ARE ABLE TO MIX OUT AS
GUSTS. OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO QUICKLY DROP TO
IFR IN PRECIPITATION AS LOWER CEILINGS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY THRU ERLY FRI AS A CDFNT EXITS. WDSRPD RSTRNS
ARE LIKELY AGAIN WITH ADVNG LOW PRES SUN AND MON.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EST
     TODAY FOR OHZ048-057.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR PAZ007>009-015-016-023-074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR WVZ023-041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290537 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1237 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CROSSING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE UPPER OHIO REGION TODAY AND SNOW EARLY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT IN GOOD SHAPE. JUST NEED TO KEEP UP WITH THE TEMPS.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
AHEAD OF FRONT AND THE STRONG WAA AS WELL. THE KEY IS WHAT WILL
THE SURFACE TEMPS DO. MODELS ARE INDICATING A SLOW RESPONSE TO THE
WAA AT THE SURFACE BUT I HAVE MY DOUBTS THAT IT WILL BE FAST
ENOUGH TO PREVENT SOME ICING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT. THERE
ARE A LOT OF FACTORS AT PLAY HERE WHICH MAKES THIS A VERY
DIFFICULT FORECAST. FIRST ALOFT. ALL THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A
STRONG SURGE OF WARMER AIR ENVELOPING MY ENTIRE CWA TODAY. THIS
SHOWS UP QUIET WELL IN THE THERMAL PATTERN AT 850MB AND IN THE LOW
AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESS PATTERNS. I HAVE DECIDED TO CHANGE VERY
LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS THINKING ON PRECIP TYPES. THE THING TO WATCH
WILL BE HOW THE ATMOSPHERE RESPONDS ONCE THE PRECIP BEGINS AND THE
WET BULBING EFFECTS COME INTO PLAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A PROFILE
VERY CLOSE TO THE 0 DEGREE LINE WHICH WILL KEEP THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN LIQUID OR FROZEN VERY CLOSE. AT THE SURFACE. MODELS DO
SHOW SURFACE TEMPS RISING QUICKLY AS THE PRECIP APPROACHES.
HOWEVER...MY CONCERN IS THAT WITH SUCH COLD DEWPOINTS AT THE
SURFACE...WET BULBING WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN...AT LEAST IN OHIO AT THE ONSET OF THE EVENT. OTHER FACTORS
THAT NEED TO BE CONSIDERED ARE THE WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK AND
LOCALIZED EFFECTS...MAINLY SHELTERED AREAS WHERE TEMPS WILL TAKE
LONGER TO RECOVER.

MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE
FRONT SWINGS INTO CENTRAL PA. THE ONSET OF CAA WILL BE RIGHT
BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERMAL PROFILES QUICKLY BECOME MORE UNSTABLE TONIGHT. COLD
ADVECTION BEGINS IN EARNEST ALOFT AS TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE
SET TO CROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL OCCUR
SIMULTANEOUSLY TO THE DRIER AIR COMING IN...HOWEVER THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH LAYER LOOKS TO CRASH TOWARD THE SURFACE TONIGHT IN THE
RIDGES...WELL BEFORE THE MOISTURE PEELS OFF. CONSENSUS SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS FROM THE NAM AND GFS VIA BUFKIT SUGGEST AROUND 25 TO
1 BEGIN OVERNIGHT. GIVEN INSTABILITY AND UNIDIRECTIONAL
UPSLOPE...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN VERY EFFICIENT SNOW GROWTH. MODEL
QPF IS GENERALLY ONLY A COUPLE OF TENTHS...AND GIVEN ICE COVER
UPSTREAM ON LAKE ERIE...A TON OF QPF IS VERY UNLIKELY.
HOWEVER...EVEN LIGHT QPF IN THIS CASE IS LIKELY TO ADD UP TO
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. GIVEN THAT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY
THERE COULD BE AN INCH OR SO IN SOME OF THE SHELTERED HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND ANOTHER 2 TO 5 SEEM LIKELY IN THE UPSLOPE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC HELP VIA TWO ADDITIONAL WAVES
CROSSING THE AREA...3 TO 6 INCH TOTALS SEEM REASONABLE IN THE
RIDGES BY FRIDAY MORNING. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE EXPANDED
TO ACCOMMODATE THIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH LEVELS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PARTICULARLY WITH THE
SYSTEM THAT COULD AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME
FRAME. FOR NOW...CONSISTENCY WILL BE THE NAME OF THE GAME UNTIL
THE MODELS PROVIDE A BETTER PICTURE. COLD PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY HIGH
CLOUDS. LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING PRECIPITATION TO ALL SITES FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE TRICKY...WITH MGW THE ONLY
SITE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WILL NOT HAVE FREEZING RAIN. HAVE
ONLY MENTIONED FZRA EXPLICITLY IN THE TAFS FOR FKL/DUJ FOR A
COUPLE HOUR TIME PERIOD...BUT A BRIEF 1-3 HOUR PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT OTHER TERMINALS. SIMILIARLY...WHILE
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS ONLY INCLUDED IN THE ZZV TAF...CANNOT RULE
OUT A BRIEF 1-3 HOUR PERIOD OF LLWS AT OTHER TERMINALS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION STARTS AND HIGHER WINDS ALOFT ARE ABLE TO MIX OUT AS
GUSTS. OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO QUICKLY DROP TO
IFR IN PRECIPITATION AS LOWER CEILINGS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY THRU ERLY FRI AS A CDFNT EXITS. WDSRPD RSTRNS
ARE LIKELY AGAIN WITH ADVNG LOW PRES SUN AND MON.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EST
     TODAY FOR OHZ048-057.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR PAZ007>009-015-016-023-074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR WVZ023-041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290537 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1237 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CROSSING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE UPPER OHIO REGION TODAY AND SNOW EARLY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT IN GOOD SHAPE. JUST NEED TO KEEP UP WITH THE TEMPS.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
AHEAD OF FRONT AND THE STRONG WAA AS WELL. THE KEY IS WHAT WILL
THE SURFACE TEMPS DO. MODELS ARE INDICATING A SLOW RESPONSE TO THE
WAA AT THE SURFACE BUT I HAVE MY DOUBTS THAT IT WILL BE FAST
ENOUGH TO PREVENT SOME ICING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT. THERE
ARE A LOT OF FACTORS AT PLAY HERE WHICH MAKES THIS A VERY
DIFFICULT FORECAST. FIRST ALOFT. ALL THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A
STRONG SURGE OF WARMER AIR ENVELOPING MY ENTIRE CWA TODAY. THIS
SHOWS UP QUIET WELL IN THE THERMAL PATTERN AT 850MB AND IN THE LOW
AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESS PATTERNS. I HAVE DECIDED TO CHANGE VERY
LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS THINKING ON PRECIP TYPES. THE THING TO WATCH
WILL BE HOW THE ATMOSPHERE RESPONDS ONCE THE PRECIP BEGINS AND THE
WET BULBING EFFECTS COME INTO PLAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A PROFILE
VERY CLOSE TO THE 0 DEGREE LINE WHICH WILL KEEP THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN LIQUID OR FROZEN VERY CLOSE. AT THE SURFACE. MODELS DO
SHOW SURFACE TEMPS RISING QUICKLY AS THE PRECIP APPROACHES.
HOWEVER...MY CONCERN IS THAT WITH SUCH COLD DEWPOINTS AT THE
SURFACE...WET BULBING WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN...AT LEAST IN OHIO AT THE ONSET OF THE EVENT. OTHER FACTORS
THAT NEED TO BE CONSIDERED ARE THE WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK AND
LOCALIZED EFFECTS...MAINLY SHELTERED AREAS WHERE TEMPS WILL TAKE
LONGER TO RECOVER.

MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE
FRONT SWINGS INTO CENTRAL PA. THE ONSET OF CAA WILL BE RIGHT
BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERMAL PROFILES QUICKLY BECOME MORE UNSTABLE TONIGHT. COLD
ADVECTION BEGINS IN EARNEST ALOFT AS TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE
SET TO CROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL OCCUR
SIMULTANEOUSLY TO THE DRIER AIR COMING IN...HOWEVER THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH LAYER LOOKS TO CRASH TOWARD THE SURFACE TONIGHT IN THE
RIDGES...WELL BEFORE THE MOISTURE PEELS OFF. CONSENSUS SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS FROM THE NAM AND GFS VIA BUFKIT SUGGEST AROUND 25 TO
1 BEGIN OVERNIGHT. GIVEN INSTABILITY AND UNIDIRECTIONAL
UPSLOPE...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN VERY EFFICIENT SNOW GROWTH. MODEL
QPF IS GENERALLY ONLY A COUPLE OF TENTHS...AND GIVEN ICE COVER
UPSTREAM ON LAKE ERIE...A TON OF QPF IS VERY UNLIKELY.
HOWEVER...EVEN LIGHT QPF IN THIS CASE IS LIKELY TO ADD UP TO
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. GIVEN THAT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY
THERE COULD BE AN INCH OR SO IN SOME OF THE SHELTERED HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND ANOTHER 2 TO 5 SEEM LIKELY IN THE UPSLOPE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC HELP VIA TWO ADDITIONAL WAVES
CROSSING THE AREA...3 TO 6 INCH TOTALS SEEM REASONABLE IN THE
RIDGES BY FRIDAY MORNING. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE EXPANDED
TO ACCOMMODATE THIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH LEVELS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PARTICULARLY WITH THE
SYSTEM THAT COULD AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME
FRAME. FOR NOW...CONSISTENCY WILL BE THE NAME OF THE GAME UNTIL
THE MODELS PROVIDE A BETTER PICTURE. COLD PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY HIGH
CLOUDS. LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING PRECIPITATION TO ALL SITES FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE TRICKY...WITH MGW THE ONLY
SITE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WILL NOT HAVE FREEZING RAIN. HAVE
ONLY MENTIONED FZRA EXPLICITLY IN THE TAFS FOR FKL/DUJ FOR A
COUPLE HOUR TIME PERIOD...BUT A BRIEF 1-3 HOUR PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT OTHER TERMINALS. SIMILIARLY...WHILE
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS ONLY INCLUDED IN THE ZZV TAF...CANNOT RULE
OUT A BRIEF 1-3 HOUR PERIOD OF LLWS AT OTHER TERMINALS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION STARTS AND HIGHER WINDS ALOFT ARE ABLE TO MIX OUT AS
GUSTS. OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO QUICKLY DROP TO
IFR IN PRECIPITATION AS LOWER CEILINGS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY THRU ERLY FRI AS A CDFNT EXITS. WDSRPD RSTRNS
ARE LIKELY AGAIN WITH ADVNG LOW PRES SUN AND MON.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EST
     TODAY FOR OHZ048-057.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR PAZ007>009-015-016-023-074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR WVZ023-041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290537 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1237 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CROSSING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE UPPER OHIO REGION TODAY AND SNOW EARLY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT IN GOOD SHAPE. JUST NEED TO KEEP UP WITH THE TEMPS.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
AHEAD OF FRONT AND THE STRONG WAA AS WELL. THE KEY IS WHAT WILL
THE SURFACE TEMPS DO. MODELS ARE INDICATING A SLOW RESPONSE TO THE
WAA AT THE SURFACE BUT I HAVE MY DOUBTS THAT IT WILL BE FAST
ENOUGH TO PREVENT SOME ICING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT. THERE
ARE A LOT OF FACTORS AT PLAY HERE WHICH MAKES THIS A VERY
DIFFICULT FORECAST. FIRST ALOFT. ALL THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A
STRONG SURGE OF WARMER AIR ENVELOPING MY ENTIRE CWA TODAY. THIS
SHOWS UP QUIET WELL IN THE THERMAL PATTERN AT 850MB AND IN THE LOW
AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESS PATTERNS. I HAVE DECIDED TO CHANGE VERY
LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS THINKING ON PRECIP TYPES. THE THING TO WATCH
WILL BE HOW THE ATMOSPHERE RESPONDS ONCE THE PRECIP BEGINS AND THE
WET BULBING EFFECTS COME INTO PLAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A PROFILE
VERY CLOSE TO THE 0 DEGREE LINE WHICH WILL KEEP THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN LIQUID OR FROZEN VERY CLOSE. AT THE SURFACE. MODELS DO
SHOW SURFACE TEMPS RISING QUICKLY AS THE PRECIP APPROACHES.
HOWEVER...MY CONCERN IS THAT WITH SUCH COLD DEWPOINTS AT THE
SURFACE...WET BULBING WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN...AT LEAST IN OHIO AT THE ONSET OF THE EVENT. OTHER FACTORS
THAT NEED TO BE CONSIDERED ARE THE WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK AND
LOCALIZED EFFECTS...MAINLY SHELTERED AREAS WHERE TEMPS WILL TAKE
LONGER TO RECOVER.

MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE
FRONT SWINGS INTO CENTRAL PA. THE ONSET OF CAA WILL BE RIGHT
BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERMAL PROFILES QUICKLY BECOME MORE UNSTABLE TONIGHT. COLD
ADVECTION BEGINS IN EARNEST ALOFT AS TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE
SET TO CROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL OCCUR
SIMULTANEOUSLY TO THE DRIER AIR COMING IN...HOWEVER THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH LAYER LOOKS TO CRASH TOWARD THE SURFACE TONIGHT IN THE
RIDGES...WELL BEFORE THE MOISTURE PEELS OFF. CONSENSUS SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS FROM THE NAM AND GFS VIA BUFKIT SUGGEST AROUND 25 TO
1 BEGIN OVERNIGHT. GIVEN INSTABILITY AND UNIDIRECTIONAL
UPSLOPE...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN VERY EFFICIENT SNOW GROWTH. MODEL
QPF IS GENERALLY ONLY A COUPLE OF TENTHS...AND GIVEN ICE COVER
UPSTREAM ON LAKE ERIE...A TON OF QPF IS VERY UNLIKELY.
HOWEVER...EVEN LIGHT QPF IN THIS CASE IS LIKELY TO ADD UP TO
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. GIVEN THAT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY
THERE COULD BE AN INCH OR SO IN SOME OF THE SHELTERED HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND ANOTHER 2 TO 5 SEEM LIKELY IN THE UPSLOPE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC HELP VIA TWO ADDITIONAL WAVES
CROSSING THE AREA...3 TO 6 INCH TOTALS SEEM REASONABLE IN THE
RIDGES BY FRIDAY MORNING. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE EXPANDED
TO ACCOMMODATE THIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH LEVELS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PARTICULARLY WITH THE
SYSTEM THAT COULD AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME
FRAME. FOR NOW...CONSISTENCY WILL BE THE NAME OF THE GAME UNTIL
THE MODELS PROVIDE A BETTER PICTURE. COLD PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY HIGH
CLOUDS. LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING PRECIPITATION TO ALL SITES FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE TRICKY...WITH MGW THE ONLY
SITE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WILL NOT HAVE FREEZING RAIN. HAVE
ONLY MENTIONED FZRA EXPLICITLY IN THE TAFS FOR FKL/DUJ FOR A
COUPLE HOUR TIME PERIOD...BUT A BRIEF 1-3 HOUR PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT OTHER TERMINALS. SIMILIARLY...WHILE
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS ONLY INCLUDED IN THE ZZV TAF...CANNOT RULE
OUT A BRIEF 1-3 HOUR PERIOD OF LLWS AT OTHER TERMINALS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION STARTS AND HIGHER WINDS ALOFT ARE ABLE TO MIX OUT AS
GUSTS. OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO QUICKLY DROP TO
IFR IN PRECIPITATION AS LOWER CEILINGS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY THRU ERLY FRI AS A CDFNT EXITS. WDSRPD RSTRNS
ARE LIKELY AGAIN WITH ADVNG LOW PRES SUN AND MON.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EST
     TODAY FOR OHZ048-057.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR PAZ007>009-015-016-023-074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR WVZ023-041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290316
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1016 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE THURSDAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SFC HI PRES SLIDES E INTO THE MID ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
A MSTLY CLEAR SKY. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPR TEENS TO LWR 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDS WITH CONTINUED BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SLY FLOW RETURNS THU AFTN AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE REGION THU NIGHT. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS
THRU THE DAY WITH HI TEMPS RANGING FM THE LWR 40S N TO UPR 40S S.
MAINTAINED A LO CHANCE FOR RA (20-30% POPS) LATE THU AFTN FOR
AREAS N AND W OF RIC...CONTINUING TO AREAS N OF I-64 THU NIGHT AS
THE FRNT MOVES THRU. DESPITE DECENT FORCING...MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING HENCE THE LO POPS. PTYPE IS RA THU AFTN/EVENG
TRANSITIONING TO POTENTIALLY SOME IP/SN MIXED IN OVRNGT. NO BIG
IMPACTS ANTICIPATED WITH VERY LITTLE QPF EXPECTED. HI PRES THEN
SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W FRI LEADING TO DRY CONDS...DECREASING
CLOUDS...AND HI TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S. CONTINUED DRY WX
INTO SAT UNDER A SUNNY-MSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TIMING DIFFERENCES ALONG WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT 12Z MODEL CHANGES
MAKES THIS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST SUN INTO MON. GFS MUCH FASTER
IN BRINGING PCPN ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC RGN SUNDAY THAN BOTH THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN. THE QUICKER GFS SOLN WOULD LEAD TO P-TYPE ISSUES
ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS SUNDAY WHILE THE SLOWER SOLNS WUD MAINLY BE
RAIN (OR A RAIN WET SNOW MIX ACROSS THE NORTH) IN THE AFTRN.
CONVERSELY...THE GFS IS QUICKER TO END PCPN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE SLOWER SOLNS KEEP PCPN GOING FOR THE BETTER PART OF MON WITH
COLDER AIR OOZING SOUTH.

WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...TRIED TO BLEND THE FORECAST AS MUCH AS PSBL
KNOWING THAT LATER MODEL RUNS SHOULD SHED BETTER LIGHT ON THE SYSTM.
DRY AND COLD SAT NIGHT WITH INCRG CLDNS. LOWS IN THE 20S XCPT L30S
SERN CSTL AREAS. KEPT A BIT OF FCST CONTINUITY AND BROUGHT LOW CHC
POPS ACROSS WRN CNTYS SUNDAY MORNING. THICKNESSES SUGGEST SOME SLEET
PSBL AT THE START ACROSS NWRN MOST CNTYS WITH RAIN OVRSPRDG THE FA
SUNDAY AFTRN AS THE LOW PRS TRACKS ACROSS NRN VA. HIGHS IN THE 40S
AS THE COLD AIR LURKS JUST NORTH OF THE FA. LIKELY RAIN SUNDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE FA...BUT LWRD TO CHC POPS AFTR MIDNIGHT. KEPT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS LATE AS THE PCPN ENDS. ANY P TYPE
ISSUES WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH CAN
COME SOUTH BEFORE PCPN ENDS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO NR 40
ACROSS NC NE CNTYS NR THE ALBEMARLE SND.

SPLIT MONDAYS FCST UP INTO 2 SEGMENTS AS WELL. CHC RAIN ALONG AND
EAST OF I95 IN THE MORNING...DRYING IT OUT IN THE AFTRN AS THE
TRAILING FRNT CLRS THE COAST. COULD EVEN SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
THE LWR MD ERN SHORE ERLY MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE U30S N TO M-U40S S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT THRU TUES NIGHT.
LOWS MON NITE UTEENS TO U20S. HIGHS TUE IN THE 30S. LOWS TUE NIGHT
IN THE 20S TO NR 30.

YET ANTHR MOIST SRN STREAM SYSTM PROGGED TO COME OUT OF THE GULF
COAST STATES AND MOVE NE ALONG THE SERN COAST WED. THIS SYTM BEARS
WATCHING AS THE COLD AIR MAY BE HARDER TO DISLODGE. WENT WITH CHC
POPS (LIQUID) FOR NOW WITH HIGHS 40-45.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW THIS
EVENING UNDER CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT RESULTING IN A CLEAR SKY AND CALM TO VERY LIGHT WIND. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NW. THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN
HIGH CLOUDS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA ALONG AND N OF A RIC-SBY LINE...AND PERHAPS
PCPN ENDING AS A MIX OF -RASN AT SBY. A GUSTY NW WIND IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. THAT AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH A MORE MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
CRNT SCA`S CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS SCNDRY CAA SURGE SEEN IN THE
DATA THIS EVENING. SEAS STILL AOA 5 FT...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY SUBSIDE
AFTR MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE W.

ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF "SUB SCA" CNDTNS XPCTD THU BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTM APPRCHS FROM THE WEST. WINDS QUICKLY BECOME SOUTH THU AS HIGH
PRS MOVES OFF THE COAST...THEN SW AS A WRM FRNT BRIEFLY LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A STRNG CDFRNT ERLY FRI MORNING. WILL
LIKELY SEE SCA`S FOR THE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRNT.

CTRNG CAA PROGGED BEHIND THE CD FRNT FRI INTO SAT. WNDS BECOME NW
AND INCRS INTO THE GALE RANGE. DATA SUGGESTS GUSTS BTWN 40-45 KTS
ACROSS THE CSTL WTRS (HIGHEST NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISL) WITH 35 KTS
GUSTS IN THE CHES BAY. GIVEN TMPS FALLING BLO 30 DEGREES...FREEZING
SPRAY REMAINS IN FORECAST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZING SPRAY
ADVSRY ACROSS NRN CSTL WTRS WHERE AIR TMPS IN THE L20S ARE XPCTD.
SEAS/WAVES QUICKLY INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE GUSTY WINDS. SEAS AVG
7-10 FT WITH WAVES 4-5 FT DURING THIS PERIOD.

CNDTNS BEGIN TO IMPROVE SAT NIGHT AS THE CANADIAN HIGH TRACKS OVR
THE RGN. NXT SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE SUN INTO MON. WILL LIKELY SEE ANTHR ROUND OF SCA`S
WITH THIS SYSTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ634-650-
     652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ654-656-
     658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...JDM/MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...AJZ/DAP
MARINE...MPR






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290316
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1016 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE THURSDAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SFC HI PRES SLIDES E INTO THE MID ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
A MSTLY CLEAR SKY. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPR TEENS TO LWR 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDS WITH CONTINUED BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SLY FLOW RETURNS THU AFTN AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE REGION THU NIGHT. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS
THRU THE DAY WITH HI TEMPS RANGING FM THE LWR 40S N TO UPR 40S S.
MAINTAINED A LO CHANCE FOR RA (20-30% POPS) LATE THU AFTN FOR
AREAS N AND W OF RIC...CONTINUING TO AREAS N OF I-64 THU NIGHT AS
THE FRNT MOVES THRU. DESPITE DECENT FORCING...MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING HENCE THE LO POPS. PTYPE IS RA THU AFTN/EVENG
TRANSITIONING TO POTENTIALLY SOME IP/SN MIXED IN OVRNGT. NO BIG
IMPACTS ANTICIPATED WITH VERY LITTLE QPF EXPECTED. HI PRES THEN
SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W FRI LEADING TO DRY CONDS...DECREASING
CLOUDS...AND HI TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S. CONTINUED DRY WX
INTO SAT UNDER A SUNNY-MSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TIMING DIFFERENCES ALONG WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT 12Z MODEL CHANGES
MAKES THIS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST SUN INTO MON. GFS MUCH FASTER
IN BRINGING PCPN ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC RGN SUNDAY THAN BOTH THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN. THE QUICKER GFS SOLN WOULD LEAD TO P-TYPE ISSUES
ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS SUNDAY WHILE THE SLOWER SOLNS WUD MAINLY BE
RAIN (OR A RAIN WET SNOW MIX ACROSS THE NORTH) IN THE AFTRN.
CONVERSELY...THE GFS IS QUICKER TO END PCPN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE SLOWER SOLNS KEEP PCPN GOING FOR THE BETTER PART OF MON WITH
COLDER AIR OOZING SOUTH.

WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...TRIED TO BLEND THE FORECAST AS MUCH AS PSBL
KNOWING THAT LATER MODEL RUNS SHOULD SHED BETTER LIGHT ON THE SYSTM.
DRY AND COLD SAT NIGHT WITH INCRG CLDNS. LOWS IN THE 20S XCPT L30S
SERN CSTL AREAS. KEPT A BIT OF FCST CONTINUITY AND BROUGHT LOW CHC
POPS ACROSS WRN CNTYS SUNDAY MORNING. THICKNESSES SUGGEST SOME SLEET
PSBL AT THE START ACROSS NWRN MOST CNTYS WITH RAIN OVRSPRDG THE FA
SUNDAY AFTRN AS THE LOW PRS TRACKS ACROSS NRN VA. HIGHS IN THE 40S
AS THE COLD AIR LURKS JUST NORTH OF THE FA. LIKELY RAIN SUNDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE FA...BUT LWRD TO CHC POPS AFTR MIDNIGHT. KEPT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS LATE AS THE PCPN ENDS. ANY P TYPE
ISSUES WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH CAN
COME SOUTH BEFORE PCPN ENDS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO NR 40
ACROSS NC NE CNTYS NR THE ALBEMARLE SND.

SPLIT MONDAYS FCST UP INTO 2 SEGMENTS AS WELL. CHC RAIN ALONG AND
EAST OF I95 IN THE MORNING...DRYING IT OUT IN THE AFTRN AS THE
TRAILING FRNT CLRS THE COAST. COULD EVEN SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
THE LWR MD ERN SHORE ERLY MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE U30S N TO M-U40S S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT THRU TUES NIGHT.
LOWS MON NITE UTEENS TO U20S. HIGHS TUE IN THE 30S. LOWS TUE NIGHT
IN THE 20S TO NR 30.

YET ANTHR MOIST SRN STREAM SYSTM PROGGED TO COME OUT OF THE GULF
COAST STATES AND MOVE NE ALONG THE SERN COAST WED. THIS SYTM BEARS
WATCHING AS THE COLD AIR MAY BE HARDER TO DISLODGE. WENT WITH CHC
POPS (LIQUID) FOR NOW WITH HIGHS 40-45.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW THIS
EVENING UNDER CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT RESULTING IN A CLEAR SKY AND CALM TO VERY LIGHT WIND. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NW. THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN
HIGH CLOUDS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA ALONG AND N OF A RIC-SBY LINE...AND PERHAPS
PCPN ENDING AS A MIX OF -RASN AT SBY. A GUSTY NW WIND IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. THAT AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH A MORE MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
CRNT SCA`S CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS SCNDRY CAA SURGE SEEN IN THE
DATA THIS EVENING. SEAS STILL AOA 5 FT...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY SUBSIDE
AFTR MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE W.

ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF "SUB SCA" CNDTNS XPCTD THU BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTM APPRCHS FROM THE WEST. WINDS QUICKLY BECOME SOUTH THU AS HIGH
PRS MOVES OFF THE COAST...THEN SW AS A WRM FRNT BRIEFLY LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A STRNG CDFRNT ERLY FRI MORNING. WILL
LIKELY SEE SCA`S FOR THE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRNT.

CTRNG CAA PROGGED BEHIND THE CD FRNT FRI INTO SAT. WNDS BECOME NW
AND INCRS INTO THE GALE RANGE. DATA SUGGESTS GUSTS BTWN 40-45 KTS
ACROSS THE CSTL WTRS (HIGHEST NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISL) WITH 35 KTS
GUSTS IN THE CHES BAY. GIVEN TMPS FALLING BLO 30 DEGREES...FREEZING
SPRAY REMAINS IN FORECAST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZING SPRAY
ADVSRY ACROSS NRN CSTL WTRS WHERE AIR TMPS IN THE L20S ARE XPCTD.
SEAS/WAVES QUICKLY INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE GUSTY WINDS. SEAS AVG
7-10 FT WITH WAVES 4-5 FT DURING THIS PERIOD.

CNDTNS BEGIN TO IMPROVE SAT NIGHT AS THE CANADIAN HIGH TRACKS OVR
THE RGN. NXT SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE SUN INTO MON. WILL LIKELY SEE ANTHR ROUND OF SCA`S
WITH THIS SYSTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ634-650-
     652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ654-656-
     658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...JDM/MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...AJZ/DAP
MARINE...MPR






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290316
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1016 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE THURSDAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SFC HI PRES SLIDES E INTO THE MID ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
A MSTLY CLEAR SKY. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPR TEENS TO LWR 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDS WITH CONTINUED BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SLY FLOW RETURNS THU AFTN AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE REGION THU NIGHT. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS
THRU THE DAY WITH HI TEMPS RANGING FM THE LWR 40S N TO UPR 40S S.
MAINTAINED A LO CHANCE FOR RA (20-30% POPS) LATE THU AFTN FOR
AREAS N AND W OF RIC...CONTINUING TO AREAS N OF I-64 THU NIGHT AS
THE FRNT MOVES THRU. DESPITE DECENT FORCING...MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING HENCE THE LO POPS. PTYPE IS RA THU AFTN/EVENG
TRANSITIONING TO POTENTIALLY SOME IP/SN MIXED IN OVRNGT. NO BIG
IMPACTS ANTICIPATED WITH VERY LITTLE QPF EXPECTED. HI PRES THEN
SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W FRI LEADING TO DRY CONDS...DECREASING
CLOUDS...AND HI TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S. CONTINUED DRY WX
INTO SAT UNDER A SUNNY-MSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TIMING DIFFERENCES ALONG WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT 12Z MODEL CHANGES
MAKES THIS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST SUN INTO MON. GFS MUCH FASTER
IN BRINGING PCPN ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC RGN SUNDAY THAN BOTH THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN. THE QUICKER GFS SOLN WOULD LEAD TO P-TYPE ISSUES
ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS SUNDAY WHILE THE SLOWER SOLNS WUD MAINLY BE
RAIN (OR A RAIN WET SNOW MIX ACROSS THE NORTH) IN THE AFTRN.
CONVERSELY...THE GFS IS QUICKER TO END PCPN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE SLOWER SOLNS KEEP PCPN GOING FOR THE BETTER PART OF MON WITH
COLDER AIR OOZING SOUTH.

WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...TRIED TO BLEND THE FORECAST AS MUCH AS PSBL
KNOWING THAT LATER MODEL RUNS SHOULD SHED BETTER LIGHT ON THE SYSTM.
DRY AND COLD SAT NIGHT WITH INCRG CLDNS. LOWS IN THE 20S XCPT L30S
SERN CSTL AREAS. KEPT A BIT OF FCST CONTINUITY AND BROUGHT LOW CHC
POPS ACROSS WRN CNTYS SUNDAY MORNING. THICKNESSES SUGGEST SOME SLEET
PSBL AT THE START ACROSS NWRN MOST CNTYS WITH RAIN OVRSPRDG THE FA
SUNDAY AFTRN AS THE LOW PRS TRACKS ACROSS NRN VA. HIGHS IN THE 40S
AS THE COLD AIR LURKS JUST NORTH OF THE FA. LIKELY RAIN SUNDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE FA...BUT LWRD TO CHC POPS AFTR MIDNIGHT. KEPT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS LATE AS THE PCPN ENDS. ANY P TYPE
ISSUES WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH CAN
COME SOUTH BEFORE PCPN ENDS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO NR 40
ACROSS NC NE CNTYS NR THE ALBEMARLE SND.

SPLIT MONDAYS FCST UP INTO 2 SEGMENTS AS WELL. CHC RAIN ALONG AND
EAST OF I95 IN THE MORNING...DRYING IT OUT IN THE AFTRN AS THE
TRAILING FRNT CLRS THE COAST. COULD EVEN SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
THE LWR MD ERN SHORE ERLY MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE U30S N TO M-U40S S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT THRU TUES NIGHT.
LOWS MON NITE UTEENS TO U20S. HIGHS TUE IN THE 30S. LOWS TUE NIGHT
IN THE 20S TO NR 30.

YET ANTHR MOIST SRN STREAM SYSTM PROGGED TO COME OUT OF THE GULF
COAST STATES AND MOVE NE ALONG THE SERN COAST WED. THIS SYTM BEARS
WATCHING AS THE COLD AIR MAY BE HARDER TO DISLODGE. WENT WITH CHC
POPS (LIQUID) FOR NOW WITH HIGHS 40-45.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW THIS
EVENING UNDER CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT RESULTING IN A CLEAR SKY AND CALM TO VERY LIGHT WIND. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NW. THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN
HIGH CLOUDS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA ALONG AND N OF A RIC-SBY LINE...AND PERHAPS
PCPN ENDING AS A MIX OF -RASN AT SBY. A GUSTY NW WIND IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. THAT AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH A MORE MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
CRNT SCA`S CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS SCNDRY CAA SURGE SEEN IN THE
DATA THIS EVENING. SEAS STILL AOA 5 FT...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY SUBSIDE
AFTR MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE W.

ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF "SUB SCA" CNDTNS XPCTD THU BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTM APPRCHS FROM THE WEST. WINDS QUICKLY BECOME SOUTH THU AS HIGH
PRS MOVES OFF THE COAST...THEN SW AS A WRM FRNT BRIEFLY LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A STRNG CDFRNT ERLY FRI MORNING. WILL
LIKELY SEE SCA`S FOR THE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRNT.

CTRNG CAA PROGGED BEHIND THE CD FRNT FRI INTO SAT. WNDS BECOME NW
AND INCRS INTO THE GALE RANGE. DATA SUGGESTS GUSTS BTWN 40-45 KTS
ACROSS THE CSTL WTRS (HIGHEST NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISL) WITH 35 KTS
GUSTS IN THE CHES BAY. GIVEN TMPS FALLING BLO 30 DEGREES...FREEZING
SPRAY REMAINS IN FORECAST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZING SPRAY
ADVSRY ACROSS NRN CSTL WTRS WHERE AIR TMPS IN THE L20S ARE XPCTD.
SEAS/WAVES QUICKLY INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE GUSTY WINDS. SEAS AVG
7-10 FT WITH WAVES 4-5 FT DURING THIS PERIOD.

CNDTNS BEGIN TO IMPROVE SAT NIGHT AS THE CANADIAN HIGH TRACKS OVR
THE RGN. NXT SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE SUN INTO MON. WILL LIKELY SEE ANTHR ROUND OF SCA`S
WITH THIS SYSTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ634-650-
     652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ654-656-
     658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...JDM/MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...AJZ/DAP
MARINE...MPR






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290316
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1016 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE THURSDAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SFC HI PRES SLIDES E INTO THE MID ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
A MSTLY CLEAR SKY. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPR TEENS TO LWR 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDS WITH CONTINUED BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SLY FLOW RETURNS THU AFTN AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE REGION THU NIGHT. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS
THRU THE DAY WITH HI TEMPS RANGING FM THE LWR 40S N TO UPR 40S S.
MAINTAINED A LO CHANCE FOR RA (20-30% POPS) LATE THU AFTN FOR
AREAS N AND W OF RIC...CONTINUING TO AREAS N OF I-64 THU NIGHT AS
THE FRNT MOVES THRU. DESPITE DECENT FORCING...MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING HENCE THE LO POPS. PTYPE IS RA THU AFTN/EVENG
TRANSITIONING TO POTENTIALLY SOME IP/SN MIXED IN OVRNGT. NO BIG
IMPACTS ANTICIPATED WITH VERY LITTLE QPF EXPECTED. HI PRES THEN
SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W FRI LEADING TO DRY CONDS...DECREASING
CLOUDS...AND HI TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S. CONTINUED DRY WX
INTO SAT UNDER A SUNNY-MSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TIMING DIFFERENCES ALONG WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT 12Z MODEL CHANGES
MAKES THIS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST SUN INTO MON. GFS MUCH FASTER
IN BRINGING PCPN ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC RGN SUNDAY THAN BOTH THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN. THE QUICKER GFS SOLN WOULD LEAD TO P-TYPE ISSUES
ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS SUNDAY WHILE THE SLOWER SOLNS WUD MAINLY BE
RAIN (OR A RAIN WET SNOW MIX ACROSS THE NORTH) IN THE AFTRN.
CONVERSELY...THE GFS IS QUICKER TO END PCPN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE SLOWER SOLNS KEEP PCPN GOING FOR THE BETTER PART OF MON WITH
COLDER AIR OOZING SOUTH.

WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...TRIED TO BLEND THE FORECAST AS MUCH AS PSBL
KNOWING THAT LATER MODEL RUNS SHOULD SHED BETTER LIGHT ON THE SYSTM.
DRY AND COLD SAT NIGHT WITH INCRG CLDNS. LOWS IN THE 20S XCPT L30S
SERN CSTL AREAS. KEPT A BIT OF FCST CONTINUITY AND BROUGHT LOW CHC
POPS ACROSS WRN CNTYS SUNDAY MORNING. THICKNESSES SUGGEST SOME SLEET
PSBL AT THE START ACROSS NWRN MOST CNTYS WITH RAIN OVRSPRDG THE FA
SUNDAY AFTRN AS THE LOW PRS TRACKS ACROSS NRN VA. HIGHS IN THE 40S
AS THE COLD AIR LURKS JUST NORTH OF THE FA. LIKELY RAIN SUNDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE FA...BUT LWRD TO CHC POPS AFTR MIDNIGHT. KEPT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS LATE AS THE PCPN ENDS. ANY P TYPE
ISSUES WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH CAN
COME SOUTH BEFORE PCPN ENDS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO NR 40
ACROSS NC NE CNTYS NR THE ALBEMARLE SND.

SPLIT MONDAYS FCST UP INTO 2 SEGMENTS AS WELL. CHC RAIN ALONG AND
EAST OF I95 IN THE MORNING...DRYING IT OUT IN THE AFTRN AS THE
TRAILING FRNT CLRS THE COAST. COULD EVEN SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
THE LWR MD ERN SHORE ERLY MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE U30S N TO M-U40S S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT THRU TUES NIGHT.
LOWS MON NITE UTEENS TO U20S. HIGHS TUE IN THE 30S. LOWS TUE NIGHT
IN THE 20S TO NR 30.

YET ANTHR MOIST SRN STREAM SYSTM PROGGED TO COME OUT OF THE GULF
COAST STATES AND MOVE NE ALONG THE SERN COAST WED. THIS SYTM BEARS
WATCHING AS THE COLD AIR MAY BE HARDER TO DISLODGE. WENT WITH CHC
POPS (LIQUID) FOR NOW WITH HIGHS 40-45.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW THIS
EVENING UNDER CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT RESULTING IN A CLEAR SKY AND CALM TO VERY LIGHT WIND. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NW. THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN
HIGH CLOUDS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA ALONG AND N OF A RIC-SBY LINE...AND PERHAPS
PCPN ENDING AS A MIX OF -RASN AT SBY. A GUSTY NW WIND IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. THAT AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH A MORE MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
CRNT SCA`S CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS SCNDRY CAA SURGE SEEN IN THE
DATA THIS EVENING. SEAS STILL AOA 5 FT...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY SUBSIDE
AFTR MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE W.

ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF "SUB SCA" CNDTNS XPCTD THU BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTM APPRCHS FROM THE WEST. WINDS QUICKLY BECOME SOUTH THU AS HIGH
PRS MOVES OFF THE COAST...THEN SW AS A WRM FRNT BRIEFLY LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A STRNG CDFRNT ERLY FRI MORNING. WILL
LIKELY SEE SCA`S FOR THE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRNT.

CTRNG CAA PROGGED BEHIND THE CD FRNT FRI INTO SAT. WNDS BECOME NW
AND INCRS INTO THE GALE RANGE. DATA SUGGESTS GUSTS BTWN 40-45 KTS
ACROSS THE CSTL WTRS (HIGHEST NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISL) WITH 35 KTS
GUSTS IN THE CHES BAY. GIVEN TMPS FALLING BLO 30 DEGREES...FREEZING
SPRAY REMAINS IN FORECAST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZING SPRAY
ADVSRY ACROSS NRN CSTL WTRS WHERE AIR TMPS IN THE L20S ARE XPCTD.
SEAS/WAVES QUICKLY INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE GUSTY WINDS. SEAS AVG
7-10 FT WITH WAVES 4-5 FT DURING THIS PERIOD.

CNDTNS BEGIN TO IMPROVE SAT NIGHT AS THE CANADIAN HIGH TRACKS OVR
THE RGN. NXT SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE SUN INTO MON. WILL LIKELY SEE ANTHR ROUND OF SCA`S
WITH THIS SYSTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ634-650-
     652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ654-656-
     658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...JDM/MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...AJZ/DAP
MARINE...MPR






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290309
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1009 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CROSSING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE UPPER OHIO REGION ON THURSDAY AND SNOW EARLY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN RATHER QUIET AS DECOUPLING HAS
ALREADY OCCURRED RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. SOME TRANSLUCENT CIRRUS
COVER IS ADVANCING SOUTHEASTWARD AT THIS HOUR AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM...HOWEVER IT SEEMS TO BE HAVING LITTLE EFFECT ON
TEMPERATURE FALLS AT THE MOMENT. DEWPOINTS FROM WALL TO WALL
ACROSS THE CWA ARE NO HIGHER THAN THE LOWER TEENS...WITH MOST OF
THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
THIS COMBINED WITH NEW SNOW COVER WILL ALLOW FOR FAIRLY DECENT
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE FALLS UNDER THE INVERSION LEVELS EVEN
WHILE FAIRLY RAPID WARM ADVECTION IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO OCCUR
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES IN THE ISOLATED VALLEYS OF THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA HAVE ALREADY DROPPED WELL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS...AND IT WOULD NOT BE SHOCKING TO SEE AN ISOLATED NEGATIVE
NUMBER OR TWO IN THOSE REACHES...HOWEVER ELSEWHERE...LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SEEM MOST
LIKELY.

MODEL 850 MB TEMPERATURES GENERALLY SURPASS 0C OVER THE MAJORITY
OF THE CWA EXCEPT THE NORTHEASTERN FRINGE ON THE CONSENSUS BY 12Z
THURSDAY. THIS IS EVIDENT IN SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE CWA...HOWEVER
THE MODELS LIKELY ARE FAR TOO RAPID MIXING OUT THE INVERSIONS AS
THE ADVECTION KICKS IN ALOFT. LIKEWISE...DYNAMICAL MODEL DEWPOINT
VALUES START OFF FAR TOO MOIST ACROSS THE CWA...AND WILL LIKELY
AGAIN AFFECT THE WET BULB TEMPERATURE PROFILES GOING INTO THE
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. AS SUCH...THE FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED
TOWARD THE COLDER END OF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE NIGHT...EVEN WITH
EASTWARD ADVANCING CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION ALOFT BUILDING IN.

THE REAL FUN BEGINS SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE IN OHIO...AND SPREADS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. A FAIRLY POTENT 500 MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED IN THE LEFT EXIT OF A 120 KT JET STREAK BLISTERS
THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LLJ DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF THIS...WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZED ON ITS
NOSE...WHICH COINCIDENTALLY RUNS ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. THIS POINTS TOWARD WARM ADVECTION
BEING VERY EFFICIENT ACROSS THE AREA BY THAT JUNCTURE...AND SHOULD
ALLOW MUCH OF THE AREA TO RUN UP ABOVE FREEZING ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...BEFORE THAT OCCURS...COLD AIR WILL NEED TO BE
DISPLACED...AND WET BULB EFFECTS WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME. IN THE
INTERIM...THIS MEANS A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
WARM AIR WORKS IN OFF THE SURFACE BEFORE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS OHIO SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE OVER OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AS THE PRECIPITATION
ONSET WILL BE CLOSEST TO SUNRISE THERE. AS A RESULT...OVERNIGHT
INVERSIONS ARE UNLIKELY TO HAVE BEEN WIPED OUT BY THAT
JUNCTURE...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF ICING BEING LIKELY. FARTHER
EAST...THE DETAILS GET A LITTLE BIT MURKY.

THE RACE BETWEEN ONSET...WET BULBING...BOUNDARY LAYER MIX
OUT...AND WARM ADVECTION WILL BE A CLOSE RACE VIRTUALLY
EVERYWHERE. AT THE MOMENT...IT SEEMS AT LEAST FOR A TIME...THAT
NORTH OF THE TURNPIKE...AT LEAST A PERIOD OF SNOW/ICE WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH REALLY ONLY ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY BY AFTERNOON
ALONG I-80 AND IN THE RIDGES OF PA AND MD. ELSEWHERE...A LATE
ONSET SHOULD ALLOW FOR GROUND TEMPERATURES TO RISE ENOUGH SUCH
THAT PLAIN RAIN WILL DOMINATE AND PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ICING. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WHILE WARM ADVECTION LOOKS RAPID AHEAD OF THE FIRST WAVE ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THERMAL PROFILES QUICKLY BECOME MUCH MORE
UNSTABLE BY THURSDAY EVENING. COLD ADVECTION BEGINS IN EARNEST
ALOFT AS TWO MORE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE SET TO CROSS THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL OCCUR SIMULTANEOUSLY TO THE
SOME DRIER AIR COMING IN...HOWEVER THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER
LOOKS TO ABSOLUTELY CRASH TOWARD THE SURFACE ON THURSDAY NIGHT IN
THE RIDGES...WELL BEFORE THE MOISTURE PEELS OFF. CONSENSUS SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS FROM THE NAM AND GFS VIA BUFKIT SUGGEST AROUND 25 TO
1 BEGIN LIKELY OVERNIGHT. GIVEN INSTABILITY AND UNIDIRECTIONAL
UPSLOPE...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN VERY EFFICIENT SNOW GROWTH. MODEL
QPF IS GENERALLY ONLY A COUPLE OF TENTHS...AND GIVEN ICE COVER
UPSTREAM ON LAKE ERIE...A TON OF QPF IS VERY UNLIKELY.
HOWEVER...EVEN LIGHT QPF IN THIS CASE IS LIKELY TO ADD UP TO
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. GIVEN THAT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY
THERE COULD BE AN INCH OR SO IN SOME OF THE SHELTERED HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND ANOTHER 2 TO 5 SEEM LIKELY IN THE UPSLOPE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC HELP VIA TWO ADDITIONAL WAVES
CROSSING THE AREA...3 TO 6 INCH TOTALS SEEM REASONABLE IN THE
RIDGES BY FRIDAY MORNING. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE EXPANDED
TO ACCOMMODATE THIS. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY HIGH
CLOUDS. LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING PRECIPITATION TO ALL SITES FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE TRICKY...WITH MGW THE ONLY
SITE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WILL NOT HAVE FREEZING RAIN. HAVE
ONLY MENTIONED FZRA EXPLICITLY IN THE TAFS FOR FKL/DUJ FOR A
COUPLE HOUR TIME PERIOD...BUT A BRIEF 1-3 HOUR PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT OTHER TERMINALS. SIMILIARLY...WHILE
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS ONLY INCLUDED IN THE ZZV TAF...CANNOT RULE
OUT A BRIEF 1-3 HOUR PERIOD OF LLWS AT OTHER TERMINALS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION STARTS AND HIGHER WINDS ALOFT ARE ABLE TO MIX OUT AS
GUSTS. OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO QUICKLY DROP TO
IFR IN PRECIPITATION AS LOWER CEILINGS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY THRU ERLY FRI AS A CDFNT EXITS. WDSRPD RSTRNS
ARE LIKELY AGAIN WITH ADVNG LOW PRES SUN AND MON.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO NOON EST THURSDAY FOR
     OHZ048-057.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR PAZ007>009-015-016-023-074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR WVZ023-041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290309
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1009 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CROSSING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE UPPER OHIO REGION ON THURSDAY AND SNOW EARLY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN RATHER QUIET AS DECOUPLING HAS
ALREADY OCCURRED RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. SOME TRANSLUCENT CIRRUS
COVER IS ADVANCING SOUTHEASTWARD AT THIS HOUR AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM...HOWEVER IT SEEMS TO BE HAVING LITTLE EFFECT ON
TEMPERATURE FALLS AT THE MOMENT. DEWPOINTS FROM WALL TO WALL
ACROSS THE CWA ARE NO HIGHER THAN THE LOWER TEENS...WITH MOST OF
THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
THIS COMBINED WITH NEW SNOW COVER WILL ALLOW FOR FAIRLY DECENT
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE FALLS UNDER THE INVERSION LEVELS EVEN
WHILE FAIRLY RAPID WARM ADVECTION IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO OCCUR
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES IN THE ISOLATED VALLEYS OF THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA HAVE ALREADY DROPPED WELL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS...AND IT WOULD NOT BE SHOCKING TO SEE AN ISOLATED NEGATIVE
NUMBER OR TWO IN THOSE REACHES...HOWEVER ELSEWHERE...LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SEEM MOST
LIKELY.

MODEL 850 MB TEMPERATURES GENERALLY SURPASS 0C OVER THE MAJORITY
OF THE CWA EXCEPT THE NORTHEASTERN FRINGE ON THE CONSENSUS BY 12Z
THURSDAY. THIS IS EVIDENT IN SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE CWA...HOWEVER
THE MODELS LIKELY ARE FAR TOO RAPID MIXING OUT THE INVERSIONS AS
THE ADVECTION KICKS IN ALOFT. LIKEWISE...DYNAMICAL MODEL DEWPOINT
VALUES START OFF FAR TOO MOIST ACROSS THE CWA...AND WILL LIKELY
AGAIN AFFECT THE WET BULB TEMPERATURE PROFILES GOING INTO THE
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. AS SUCH...THE FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED
TOWARD THE COLDER END OF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE NIGHT...EVEN WITH
EASTWARD ADVANCING CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION ALOFT BUILDING IN.

THE REAL FUN BEGINS SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE IN OHIO...AND SPREADS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. A FAIRLY POTENT 500 MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED IN THE LEFT EXIT OF A 120 KT JET STREAK BLISTERS
THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LLJ DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF THIS...WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZED ON ITS
NOSE...WHICH COINCIDENTALLY RUNS ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. THIS POINTS TOWARD WARM ADVECTION
BEING VERY EFFICIENT ACROSS THE AREA BY THAT JUNCTURE...AND SHOULD
ALLOW MUCH OF THE AREA TO RUN UP ABOVE FREEZING ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...BEFORE THAT OCCURS...COLD AIR WILL NEED TO BE
DISPLACED...AND WET BULB EFFECTS WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME. IN THE
INTERIM...THIS MEANS A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
WARM AIR WORKS IN OFF THE SURFACE BEFORE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS OHIO SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE OVER OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AS THE PRECIPITATION
ONSET WILL BE CLOSEST TO SUNRISE THERE. AS A RESULT...OVERNIGHT
INVERSIONS ARE UNLIKELY TO HAVE BEEN WIPED OUT BY THAT
JUNCTURE...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF ICING BEING LIKELY. FARTHER
EAST...THE DETAILS GET A LITTLE BIT MURKY.

THE RACE BETWEEN ONSET...WET BULBING...BOUNDARY LAYER MIX
OUT...AND WARM ADVECTION WILL BE A CLOSE RACE VIRTUALLY
EVERYWHERE. AT THE MOMENT...IT SEEMS AT LEAST FOR A TIME...THAT
NORTH OF THE TURNPIKE...AT LEAST A PERIOD OF SNOW/ICE WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH REALLY ONLY ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY BY AFTERNOON
ALONG I-80 AND IN THE RIDGES OF PA AND MD. ELSEWHERE...A LATE
ONSET SHOULD ALLOW FOR GROUND TEMPERATURES TO RISE ENOUGH SUCH
THAT PLAIN RAIN WILL DOMINATE AND PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ICING. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WHILE WARM ADVECTION LOOKS RAPID AHEAD OF THE FIRST WAVE ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THERMAL PROFILES QUICKLY BECOME MUCH MORE
UNSTABLE BY THURSDAY EVENING. COLD ADVECTION BEGINS IN EARNEST
ALOFT AS TWO MORE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE SET TO CROSS THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL OCCUR SIMULTANEOUSLY TO THE
SOME DRIER AIR COMING IN...HOWEVER THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER
LOOKS TO ABSOLUTELY CRASH TOWARD THE SURFACE ON THURSDAY NIGHT IN
THE RIDGES...WELL BEFORE THE MOISTURE PEELS OFF. CONSENSUS SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS FROM THE NAM AND GFS VIA BUFKIT SUGGEST AROUND 25 TO
1 BEGIN LIKELY OVERNIGHT. GIVEN INSTABILITY AND UNIDIRECTIONAL
UPSLOPE...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN VERY EFFICIENT SNOW GROWTH. MODEL
QPF IS GENERALLY ONLY A COUPLE OF TENTHS...AND GIVEN ICE COVER
UPSTREAM ON LAKE ERIE...A TON OF QPF IS VERY UNLIKELY.
HOWEVER...EVEN LIGHT QPF IN THIS CASE IS LIKELY TO ADD UP TO
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. GIVEN THAT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY
THERE COULD BE AN INCH OR SO IN SOME OF THE SHELTERED HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND ANOTHER 2 TO 5 SEEM LIKELY IN THE UPSLOPE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC HELP VIA TWO ADDITIONAL WAVES
CROSSING THE AREA...3 TO 6 INCH TOTALS SEEM REASONABLE IN THE
RIDGES BY FRIDAY MORNING. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE EXPANDED
TO ACCOMMODATE THIS. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY HIGH
CLOUDS. LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING PRECIPITATION TO ALL SITES FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE TRICKY...WITH MGW THE ONLY
SITE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WILL NOT HAVE FREEZING RAIN. HAVE
ONLY MENTIONED FZRA EXPLICITLY IN THE TAFS FOR FKL/DUJ FOR A
COUPLE HOUR TIME PERIOD...BUT A BRIEF 1-3 HOUR PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT OTHER TERMINALS. SIMILIARLY...WHILE
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS ONLY INCLUDED IN THE ZZV TAF...CANNOT RULE
OUT A BRIEF 1-3 HOUR PERIOD OF LLWS AT OTHER TERMINALS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION STARTS AND HIGHER WINDS ALOFT ARE ABLE TO MIX OUT AS
GUSTS. OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO QUICKLY DROP TO
IFR IN PRECIPITATION AS LOWER CEILINGS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY THRU ERLY FRI AS A CDFNT EXITS. WDSRPD RSTRNS
ARE LIKELY AGAIN WITH ADVNG LOW PRES SUN AND MON.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO NOON EST THURSDAY FOR
     OHZ048-057.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR PAZ007>009-015-016-023-074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR WVZ023-041.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290251
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
951 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE THURSDAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SFC HI PRES SLIDES E INTO THE MID ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
A MSTLY CLEAR SKY. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPR TEENS TO LWR 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDS WITH CONTINUED BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SLY FLOW RETURNS THU AFTN AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE REGION THU NIGHT. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS
THRU THE DAY WITH HI TEMPS RANGING FM THE LWR 40S N TO UPR 40S S.
MAINTAINED A LO CHANCE FOR RA (20-30% POPS) LATE THU AFTN FOR
AREAS N AND W OF RIC...CONTINUING TO AREAS N OF I-64 THU NIGHT AS
THE FRNT MOVES THRU. DESPITE DECENT FORCING...MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING HENCE THE LO POPS. PTYPE IS RA THU AFTN/EVENG
TRANSITIONING TO POTENTIALLY SOME IP/SN MIXED IN OVRNGT. NO BIG
IMPACTS ANTICIPATED WITH VERY LITTLE QPF EXPECTED. HI PRES THEN
SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W FRI LEADING TO DRY CONDS...DECREASING
CLOUDS...AND HI TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S. CONTINUED DRY WX
INTO SAT UNDER A SUNNY-MSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TIMING DIFFERENCES ALONG WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT 12Z MODEL CHANGES
MAKES THIS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST SUN INTO MON. GFS MUCH FASTER
IN BRINGING PCPN ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC RGN SUNDAY THAN BOTH THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN. THE QUICKER GFS SOLN WOULD LEAD TO P-TYPE ISSUES
ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS SUNDAY WHILE THE SLOWER SOLNS WUD MAINLY BE
RAIN (OR A RAIN WET SNOW MIX ACROSS THE NORTH) IN THE AFTRN.
CONVERSELY...THE GFS IS QUICKER TO END PCPN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE SLOWER SOLNS KEEP PCPN GOING FOR THE BETTER PART OF MON WITH
COLDER AIR OOZING SOUTH.

WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...TRIED TO BLEND THE FORECAST AS MUCH AS PSBL
KNOWING THAT LATER MODEL RUNS SHOULD SHED BETTER LIGHT ON THE SYSTM.
DRY AND COLD SAT NIGHT WITH INCRG CLDNS. LOWS IN THE 20S XCPT L30S
SERN CSTL AREAS. KEPT A BIT OF FCST CONTINUITY AND BROUGHT LOW CHC
POPS ACROSS WRN CNTYS SUNDAY MORNING. THICKNESSES SUGGEST SOME SLEET
PSBL AT THE START ACROSS NWRN MOST CNTYS WITH RAIN OVRSPRDG THE FA
SUNDAY AFTRN AS THE LOW PRS TRACKS ACROSS NRN VA. HIGHS IN THE 40S
AS THE COLD AIR LURKS JUST NORTH OF THE FA. LIKELY RAIN SUNDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE FA...BUT LWRD TO CHC POPS AFTR MIDNIGHT. KEPT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS LATE AS THE PCPN ENDS. ANY P TYPE
ISSUES WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH CAN
COME SOUTH BEFORE PCPN ENDS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO NR 40
ACROSS NC NE CNTYS NR THE ALBEMARLE SND.

SPLIT MONDAYS FCST UP INTO 2 SEGMENTS AS WELL. CHC RAIN ALONG AND
EAST OF I95 IN THE MORNING...DRYING IT OUT IN THE AFTRN AS THE
TRAILING FRNT CLRS THE COAST. COULD EVEN SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
THE LWR MD ERN SHORE ERLY MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE U30S N TO M-U40S S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT THRU TUES NIGHT.
LOWS MON NITE UTEENS TO U20S. HIGHS TUE IN THE 30S. LOWS TUE NIGHT
IN THE 20S TO NR 30.

YET ANTHR MOIST SRN STREAM SYSTM PROGGED TO COME OUT OF THE GULF
COAST STATES AND MOVE NE ALONG THE SERN COAST WED. THIS SYTM BEARS
WATCHING AS THE COLD AIR MAY BE HARDER TO DISLODGE. WENT WITH CHC
POPS (LIQUID) FOR NOW WITH HIGHS 40-45.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW THIS
EVENING UNDER CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT RESULTING IN A CLEAR SKY AND CALM TO VERY LIGHT WIND. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NW. THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN
HIGH CLOUDS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA ALONG AND N OF A RIC-SBY LINE...AND PERHAPS
PCPN ENDING AS A MIX OF -RASN AT SBY. A GUSTY NW WIND IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. THAT AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH A MORE MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
CRNT SCA`S CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS SCNDRY CAA SURGE SEEN IN THE
DATA THIS EVENING. SEAS STILL AOA 5 FT...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY SUBSIDE
AFTR MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE W.

ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF "SUB SCA" CNDTNS XPCTD THU BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTM APPRCHS FROM THE WEST. WINDS QUICKLY BECOME SOUTH THU AS HIGH
PRS MOVES OFF THE COAST...THEN SW AS A WRM FRNT BRIEFLY LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A STRNG CDFRNT ERLY FRI MORNING. WILL
LIKELY SEE SCA`S FOR THE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRNT.

CTRNG CAA PROGGED BEHIND THE CD FRNT FRI INTO SAT. WNDS BECOME NW
AND INCRS INTO THE GALE RANGE. DATA SUGGESTS GUSTS BTWN 40-45 KTS
ACROSS THE CSTL WTRS (HIGHEST NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISL) WITH 35 KTS
GUSTS IN THE CHES BAY. GIVEN TMPS FALLING BLO 30 DEGREES...FREEZING
SPRAY REMAINS IN FORECAST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZING SPRAY
ADVSRY ACROSS NRN CSTL WTRS WHERE AIR TMPS IN THE L20S ARE XPCTD.
SEAS/WAVES QUICKLY INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE GUSTY WINDS. SEAS AVG
7-10 FT WITH WAVES 4-5 FT DURING THIS PERIOD.

CNDTNS BEGIN TO IMPROVE SAT NIGHT AS THE CANADIAN HIGH TRACKS OVR
THE RGN. NXT SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE SUN INTO MON. WILL LIKELY SEE ANTHR ROUND OF SCA`S
WITH THIS SYSTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...JDM/MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...AJZ/DAP
MARINE...MPR






000
FXUS61 KPHI 290218
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
918 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND OFFSHORE
ON THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY NIGHT AND REFORM NEAR CAPE COD ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE
AN ARCTIC FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND OVER THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
VICINITY THIS EVENING. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST WITH ITS
AXIS REACHING OUR REGION TOWARD MORNING. THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN CLEAR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME WISPS OF
CIRRUS ARRIVING NEAR DAYBREAK.

THE NORTHWEST WIND WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS IT VEERS TOWARD
THE NORTH. THE WIND WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MANY
LOCATIONS.

THE LIGHT WIND, CLEAR SKY AND SNOW COVER WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES
TO FALL QUITE A BIT OVERNIGHT. MINIMUM READINGS SHOULD BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH AND IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST ON THURSDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.

CLEAR SKIES WILL START TO CLOUD UP AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY BUT WE
MIGHT START TO SEE OUR FIRST FLAKES FALL DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS SOUTHERN
DELAWARE AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES THE POLAR VORTEX OVER HUDSON`S
BAY... A RIDGE INVOF THE WEST COAST OF NOAM AND A SOUTHERN STREAM
CUT OFF LOW NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA...THAT MAY FINALLY EJECTED
NORTHEASTWARD BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THESE FEATURES WILL
GUIDE S/WV ENERGY THRU A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EAST CONUS. THIS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...LEADING TO THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM INVOF CAPE COD ON FRI...AND WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY S/WV RIDGING FOR A BRIEF TIME OVER THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A PRIMARY S/WV ENTERS THE NORTHERN INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL OTHER PIECES OF
ENERGY EXTENDING FROM HUDSON`S BAY TO THE GULF COAST. THE DEGREE
OF PHASING THESE FEATURES UNDERGO AS THEY TRAVERSE THE EAST CONUS
TROUGH...AND REDEVELOPMENT INVOF THE EAST COAST...PRESENTS THE
GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST. AT THE D+5 TIME
FRAME...IT/S TO EARLY TO LOCK ONTO ANY SPECIFICS...BUT THE NAO IS
PROJECTED TO GO FROM NEGATIVE TO POSITIVE WHICH IS TYPICALLY
FAVORABLE FOR EAST COAST CYCLOGENISIS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND ON THURSDAY. THE SKY
WILL REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS ON THURSDAY
MORNING AND AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS, WITH BASES AT OR
ABOVE 10,000 FEET, DURING THE AFTERNOON.

A LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AT MOST LOCATIONS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. A LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND 4 TO 8 KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY MORNING...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE
IN SNOW SQUALLS. NW WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 KT.

FRI NIGHT...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

SATURDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IN THE SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE OCEAN IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 1 AM.

WINDS ARE DIMINISHING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS ACROSS OUR
AREA. SEAS ARE ALSO DECREASING. EXPECT BOTH WINDS AND SEAS TO
FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON OUR OCEAN WATERS LATER
TONIGHT. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY WITH LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET ON THE OCEAN.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS.

FRI/FRI NIGHT...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS INCREASINGLY LIKELY.

SAT...GALE CONDITIONS DIMINISHING BACK TO SCA CONDITIONS.

SUN...SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

MON...WINDS AND SEAS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...FRANCK/O`HARA
AVIATION...FRANCK/IOVINO
MARINE...FRANCK/MEOLA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 290218
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
918 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND OFFSHORE
ON THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY NIGHT AND REFORM NEAR CAPE COD ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE
AN ARCTIC FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND OVER THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
VICINITY THIS EVENING. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST WITH ITS
AXIS REACHING OUR REGION TOWARD MORNING. THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN CLEAR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME WISPS OF
CIRRUS ARRIVING NEAR DAYBREAK.

THE NORTHWEST WIND WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS IT VEERS TOWARD
THE NORTH. THE WIND WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MANY
LOCATIONS.

THE LIGHT WIND, CLEAR SKY AND SNOW COVER WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES
TO FALL QUITE A BIT OVERNIGHT. MINIMUM READINGS SHOULD BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH AND IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST ON THURSDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.

CLEAR SKIES WILL START TO CLOUD UP AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY BUT WE
MIGHT START TO SEE OUR FIRST FLAKES FALL DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS SOUTHERN
DELAWARE AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES THE POLAR VORTEX OVER HUDSON`S
BAY... A RIDGE INVOF THE WEST COAST OF NOAM AND A SOUTHERN STREAM
CUT OFF LOW NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA...THAT MAY FINALLY EJECTED
NORTHEASTWARD BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THESE FEATURES WILL
GUIDE S/WV ENERGY THRU A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EAST CONUS. THIS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...LEADING TO THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM INVOF CAPE COD ON FRI...AND WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY S/WV RIDGING FOR A BRIEF TIME OVER THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A PRIMARY S/WV ENTERS THE NORTHERN INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL OTHER PIECES OF
ENERGY EXTENDING FROM HUDSON`S BAY TO THE GULF COAST. THE DEGREE
OF PHASING THESE FEATURES UNDERGO AS THEY TRAVERSE THE EAST CONUS
TROUGH...AND REDEVELOPMENT INVOF THE EAST COAST...PRESENTS THE
GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST. AT THE D+5 TIME
FRAME...IT/S TO EARLY TO LOCK ONTO ANY SPECIFICS...BUT THE NAO IS
PROJECTED TO GO FROM NEGATIVE TO POSITIVE WHICH IS TYPICALLY
FAVORABLE FOR EAST COAST CYCLOGENISIS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND ON THURSDAY. THE SKY
WILL REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS ON THURSDAY
MORNING AND AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS, WITH BASES AT OR
ABOVE 10,000 FEET, DURING THE AFTERNOON.

A LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AT MOST LOCATIONS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. A LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND 4 TO 8 KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY MORNING...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE
IN SNOW SQUALLS. NW WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 KT.

FRI NIGHT...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

SATURDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IN THE SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE OCEAN IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 1 AM.

WINDS ARE DIMINISHING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS ACROSS OUR
AREA. SEAS ARE ALSO DECREASING. EXPECT BOTH WINDS AND SEAS TO
FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON OUR OCEAN WATERS LATER
TONIGHT. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY WITH LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET ON THE OCEAN.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS.

FRI/FRI NIGHT...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS INCREASINGLY LIKELY.

SAT...GALE CONDITIONS DIMINISHING BACK TO SCA CONDITIONS.

SUN...SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

MON...WINDS AND SEAS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...FRANCK/O`HARA
AVIATION...FRANCK/IOVINO
MARINE...FRANCK/MEOLA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 290218
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
918 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND OFFSHORE
ON THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY NIGHT AND REFORM NEAR CAPE COD ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE
AN ARCTIC FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND OVER THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
VICINITY THIS EVENING. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST WITH ITS
AXIS REACHING OUR REGION TOWARD MORNING. THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN CLEAR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME WISPS OF
CIRRUS ARRIVING NEAR DAYBREAK.

THE NORTHWEST WIND WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS IT VEERS TOWARD
THE NORTH. THE WIND WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MANY
LOCATIONS.

THE LIGHT WIND, CLEAR SKY AND SNOW COVER WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES
TO FALL QUITE A BIT OVERNIGHT. MINIMUM READINGS SHOULD BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH AND IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST ON THURSDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.

CLEAR SKIES WILL START TO CLOUD UP AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY BUT WE
MIGHT START TO SEE OUR FIRST FLAKES FALL DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS SOUTHERN
DELAWARE AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES THE POLAR VORTEX OVER HUDSON`S
BAY... A RIDGE INVOF THE WEST COAST OF NOAM AND A SOUTHERN STREAM
CUT OFF LOW NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA...THAT MAY FINALLY EJECTED
NORTHEASTWARD BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THESE FEATURES WILL
GUIDE S/WV ENERGY THRU A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EAST CONUS. THIS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...LEADING TO THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM INVOF CAPE COD ON FRI...AND WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY S/WV RIDGING FOR A BRIEF TIME OVER THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A PRIMARY S/WV ENTERS THE NORTHERN INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL OTHER PIECES OF
ENERGY EXTENDING FROM HUDSON`S BAY TO THE GULF COAST. THE DEGREE
OF PHASING THESE FEATURES UNDERGO AS THEY TRAVERSE THE EAST CONUS
TROUGH...AND REDEVELOPMENT INVOF THE EAST COAST...PRESENTS THE
GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST. AT THE D+5 TIME
FRAME...IT/S TO EARLY TO LOCK ONTO ANY SPECIFICS...BUT THE NAO IS
PROJECTED TO GO FROM NEGATIVE TO POSITIVE WHICH IS TYPICALLY
FAVORABLE FOR EAST COAST CYCLOGENISIS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND ON THURSDAY. THE SKY
WILL REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS ON THURSDAY
MORNING AND AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS, WITH BASES AT OR
ABOVE 10,000 FEET, DURING THE AFTERNOON.

A LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AT MOST LOCATIONS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. A LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND 4 TO 8 KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY MORNING...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE
IN SNOW SQUALLS. NW WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 KT.

FRI NIGHT...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

SATURDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IN THE SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE OCEAN IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 1 AM.

WINDS ARE DIMINISHING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS ACROSS OUR
AREA. SEAS ARE ALSO DECREASING. EXPECT BOTH WINDS AND SEAS TO
FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON OUR OCEAN WATERS LATER
TONIGHT. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY WITH LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET ON THE OCEAN.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS.

FRI/FRI NIGHT...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS INCREASINGLY LIKELY.

SAT...GALE CONDITIONS DIMINISHING BACK TO SCA CONDITIONS.

SUN...SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

MON...WINDS AND SEAS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...FRANCK/O`HARA
AVIATION...FRANCK/IOVINO
MARINE...FRANCK/MEOLA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 290218
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
918 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND OFFSHORE
ON THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY NIGHT AND REFORM NEAR CAPE COD ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE
AN ARCTIC FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND OVER THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
VICINITY THIS EVENING. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST WITH ITS
AXIS REACHING OUR REGION TOWARD MORNING. THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN CLEAR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME WISPS OF
CIRRUS ARRIVING NEAR DAYBREAK.

THE NORTHWEST WIND WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS IT VEERS TOWARD
THE NORTH. THE WIND WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MANY
LOCATIONS.

THE LIGHT WIND, CLEAR SKY AND SNOW COVER WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES
TO FALL QUITE A BIT OVERNIGHT. MINIMUM READINGS SHOULD BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH AND IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST ON THURSDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.

CLEAR SKIES WILL START TO CLOUD UP AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY BUT WE
MIGHT START TO SEE OUR FIRST FLAKES FALL DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS SOUTHERN
DELAWARE AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES THE POLAR VORTEX OVER HUDSON`S
BAY... A RIDGE INVOF THE WEST COAST OF NOAM AND A SOUTHERN STREAM
CUT OFF LOW NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA...THAT MAY FINALLY EJECTED
NORTHEASTWARD BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THESE FEATURES WILL
GUIDE S/WV ENERGY THRU A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EAST CONUS. THIS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...LEADING TO THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM INVOF CAPE COD ON FRI...AND WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY S/WV RIDGING FOR A BRIEF TIME OVER THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A PRIMARY S/WV ENTERS THE NORTHERN INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL OTHER PIECES OF
ENERGY EXTENDING FROM HUDSON`S BAY TO THE GULF COAST. THE DEGREE
OF PHASING THESE FEATURES UNDERGO AS THEY TRAVERSE THE EAST CONUS
TROUGH...AND REDEVELOPMENT INVOF THE EAST COAST...PRESENTS THE
GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST. AT THE D+5 TIME
FRAME...IT/S TO EARLY TO LOCK ONTO ANY SPECIFICS...BUT THE NAO IS
PROJECTED TO GO FROM NEGATIVE TO POSITIVE WHICH IS TYPICALLY
FAVORABLE FOR EAST COAST CYCLOGENISIS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND ON THURSDAY. THE SKY
WILL REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS ON THURSDAY
MORNING AND AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS, WITH BASES AT OR
ABOVE 10,000 FEET, DURING THE AFTERNOON.

A LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AT MOST LOCATIONS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. A LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND 4 TO 8 KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY MORNING...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE
IN SNOW SQUALLS. NW WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 KT.

FRI NIGHT...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

SATURDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IN THE SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE OCEAN IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 1 AM.

WINDS ARE DIMINISHING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS ACROSS OUR
AREA. SEAS ARE ALSO DECREASING. EXPECT BOTH WINDS AND SEAS TO
FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON OUR OCEAN WATERS LATER
TONIGHT. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY WITH LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET ON THE OCEAN.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS.

FRI/FRI NIGHT...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS INCREASINGLY LIKELY.

SAT...GALE CONDITIONS DIMINISHING BACK TO SCA CONDITIONS.

SUN...SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

MON...WINDS AND SEAS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...FRANCK/O`HARA
AVIATION...FRANCK/IOVINO
MARINE...FRANCK/MEOLA







000
FXUS61 KLWX 290216
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
916 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER INTO EARLY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY. A WINDY AND
DRY FRIDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FOR SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION SUNDAY AND WILL
IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE. MAY HAVE A FEW CIRRUS STARTING TO
SPILL OVERTOP THE RIDGE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY LATE...BUT GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. RESULT WILL BE FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT THAT WILL SUPPORT A COLD NIGHT...USED A
BLEND OF BIAS CORRECTED MET/SREFS FOR MINIMA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DENSE HIGH CIRRUS WILL START THE DAY ON THU...W/ A CONTINUED
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL AGAIN GRADUALLY CLIMB BACK INTO THE 20S AND L30S THRU
THE MRNG. A COLD FRONT TAILING DOWN FROM A CLIPPER SYSTEM WELL TO
OUR NORTH WILL QUICKLY TRUDGE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST OVERNIGHT
AND INTO EARLY THU. BY MIDDAY...THIS FEATURE WILL BE ON THE
DOORSTEP OF THE CNTRL APLCNS - SLIDING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THRU THE EARLY AFTN HRS.

A STRENGTHENING SLY SFC WIND WILL HELP BUMP TEMPS BACK UP INTO
THE M-U30S FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THE FROPA. NRN MD
AND JUST INTO NRN VA WILL STILL BE HANGING ONTO THE NEAR OR SUB-
FREEZING SFC TEMPS AS PRECIP APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. PLENTY OF
DRY AIR WILL GREET THE INCOMING PRECIP...LIKELY PREVENTING MUCH OF
IT FROM REACHING THE SFC UNTIL FROPA TOWARD THE LATE AFTN PERIOD.
THE LOWER ATMOS OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA WILL ALLOW FOR A MIX
OF RAIN/SNOW - POSSIBLY SLEET - AS THE INITIAL WAVE OF PRECIP
ARRIVES. THE NRN TIER OF THE CWA /NRN MD/ WILL LIKELY BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SNOW W/ SOME LIQUID MIXED-IN AND THIS IS ALSO
WHERE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE...ALBEIT
VERY LIGHT. A RAIN SNOW MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TIER OF COUNTIES
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE I-66 CORRIDOR AND MUCH OF THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS/BLUE RIDGE.

THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE PROGRESSIVE...SO PRECIP CHANCES MAY BE
LIMITED TO THIS BAND AND CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DRY OUT BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY - MINUS THE APLCNS. THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL THEN BECOME
THE FOCUS OF MULTI-PERIOD UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS W/ POTENTIAL
ADVISORY SNOWS FOR THESE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS ALONG THE SPINE OF
THE CNTRL APLCNS.

AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY WHILE THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST. PVA AND A COLD POOL
ALOFT MAY LEAD TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NW WINDS WILL BE
BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH FRIDAY. HIGHER WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
AND ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE WARRANTED FOR
THESE AREAS DURING THIS TIME. COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOW 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE
LOW 30S ALONG I-95. DUE TO GUSTY WINDS...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE
IN THE TEENS TO 20S. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT BUT
SUBSIDE SOME WITH GUSTS AROUND 30MPH INTO SATURDAY MORNING. FCST MIN
TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE TO THE TEENS ELSEWHERE. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DROP FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WC ADVISORIES MAY BE WARRANTED
NORTH AND WEST OF THE BALT/DC METROS INCLUDING WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE MTNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SAT...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO
START THE DAY ON SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SLOWLY REBOUND FROM READING
IN THE TEENS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WHILE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM LOWER TEENS AND EVEN SINGLE DIGITS WEST OF
I-81. FAIR SKIES ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

SUN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST EARLY IN THE DAY.
MEANWHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY WILL HEAD EAST.
MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. THE MODELS SHOW SW WINDS ALOFT
INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES AT THE
SURFACE WILL BE TOUGHER TO ERODE UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECTING A
WINTRY MIX ON SUNDAY. CURRENT TIMING OF PRECIP SUGGESTS THE LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. OF COURSE CONFIDENCE OF
TIMING PRECIP THIS FAR OUT IS PROBLEMATIC...AND MODEL CHANGE OF
ONLY 6 HRS WILL HAVE BIG IMPLICATIONS ON JUST WHAT TYPE OF PRECIP
WILL FALL. HOWEVER AM CONCERNED ABOUT COMING OUT OF A 36 HOUR OF
SUBFREEZING TEMPS AND MODELS TRYING TO SCOUR OUT THE COLD AIR TOO
FAST. THUS ADDED A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN FOR ABOUT THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE CWA. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ALTHO THE 12Z GFS IS AGGRESSIVE MOVING THE PRECIP OUT
QUICKLY SUN NIGHT.

MON...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVING ACROSS THE MASON-DIXON LINE EARLY IN
THE DAY BRINGING END TO PRECIP. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL BY
4-8 DEGREES-F. THERE COULD BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LINGERING SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION.

TUE-WED...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TUE AND CONTINUES
THROUGH WED. TUE WILL BE COLD...ABOUT 10-14 DEGF BELOW NORMAL. TEMPS
ON WED MODERATE SOME. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING OFF THE SE COAST. BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIND GUSTS HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE TERMINALS AND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN WINDS WILL BECOME VRB03KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW WITH IT THURSDAY DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH P-TYPE...BUT
GIVEN POTENTIAL WET BULBING MAY LEAN MORE TOWARD -SN FOR THE BULK
OF THE EVENT /WHICH LIKELY ONLY LASTS A FEW HOURS/.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS 20-25KTS G 35 KTS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. NW WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
SOME FRIDAY NIGHT BUT CONTINUE OUT OF THE NW 10-15KTS G20KTS. NW
WINDS AROUND 5-10KTS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING AND SCA HAS
BEEN CANCELLED. SLY CHANNELING WILL BEGIN LATE THE AFTN THU AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT...WITH SCA CONDITIONS AGAIN LIKELY. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL SWING THRU THE AREA LATE THU AFTN/EVE...SWITCHING WINDS BACK
TO NWLY WHERE THEY STILL STAY THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO NW WINDS 20-25KTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 40 KTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GALE WARNINGS ARE LIKELY DURING THIS
TIME. NW WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOME FRIDAY NIGHT BUT WINDS SHOULD STAY
GUSTY AND GALES OR SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY. NW WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
BY SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/GMS
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...SMZ
AVIATION...BPP/GMS/SMZ
MARINE...BPP/GMS/SMZ








000
FXUS61 KLWX 290216
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
916 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER INTO EARLY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY. A WINDY AND
DRY FRIDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FOR SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION SUNDAY AND WILL
IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE. MAY HAVE A FEW CIRRUS STARTING TO
SPILL OVERTOP THE RIDGE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY LATE...BUT GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. RESULT WILL BE FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT THAT WILL SUPPORT A COLD NIGHT...USED A
BLEND OF BIAS CORRECTED MET/SREFS FOR MINIMA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DENSE HIGH CIRRUS WILL START THE DAY ON THU...W/ A CONTINUED
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL AGAIN GRADUALLY CLIMB BACK INTO THE 20S AND L30S THRU
THE MRNG. A COLD FRONT TAILING DOWN FROM A CLIPPER SYSTEM WELL TO
OUR NORTH WILL QUICKLY TRUDGE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST OVERNIGHT
AND INTO EARLY THU. BY MIDDAY...THIS FEATURE WILL BE ON THE
DOORSTEP OF THE CNTRL APLCNS - SLIDING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THRU THE EARLY AFTN HRS.

A STRENGTHENING SLY SFC WIND WILL HELP BUMP TEMPS BACK UP INTO
THE M-U30S FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THE FROPA. NRN MD
AND JUST INTO NRN VA WILL STILL BE HANGING ONTO THE NEAR OR SUB-
FREEZING SFC TEMPS AS PRECIP APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. PLENTY OF
DRY AIR WILL GREET THE INCOMING PRECIP...LIKELY PREVENTING MUCH OF
IT FROM REACHING THE SFC UNTIL FROPA TOWARD THE LATE AFTN PERIOD.
THE LOWER ATMOS OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA WILL ALLOW FOR A MIX
OF RAIN/SNOW - POSSIBLY SLEET - AS THE INITIAL WAVE OF PRECIP
ARRIVES. THE NRN TIER OF THE CWA /NRN MD/ WILL LIKELY BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SNOW W/ SOME LIQUID MIXED-IN AND THIS IS ALSO
WHERE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE...ALBEIT
VERY LIGHT. A RAIN SNOW MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TIER OF COUNTIES
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE I-66 CORRIDOR AND MUCH OF THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS/BLUE RIDGE.

THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE PROGRESSIVE...SO PRECIP CHANCES MAY BE
LIMITED TO THIS BAND AND CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DRY OUT BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY - MINUS THE APLCNS. THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL THEN BECOME
THE FOCUS OF MULTI-PERIOD UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS W/ POTENTIAL
ADVISORY SNOWS FOR THESE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS ALONG THE SPINE OF
THE CNTRL APLCNS.

AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY WHILE THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST. PVA AND A COLD POOL
ALOFT MAY LEAD TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NW WINDS WILL BE
BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH FRIDAY. HIGHER WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
AND ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE WARRANTED FOR
THESE AREAS DURING THIS TIME. COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOW 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE
LOW 30S ALONG I-95. DUE TO GUSTY WINDS...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE
IN THE TEENS TO 20S. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT BUT
SUBSIDE SOME WITH GUSTS AROUND 30MPH INTO SATURDAY MORNING. FCST MIN
TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE TO THE TEENS ELSEWHERE. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DROP FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WC ADVISORIES MAY BE WARRANTED
NORTH AND WEST OF THE BALT/DC METROS INCLUDING WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE MTNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SAT...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO
START THE DAY ON SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SLOWLY REBOUND FROM READING
IN THE TEENS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WHILE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM LOWER TEENS AND EVEN SINGLE DIGITS WEST OF
I-81. FAIR SKIES ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

SUN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST EARLY IN THE DAY.
MEANWHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY WILL HEAD EAST.
MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. THE MODELS SHOW SW WINDS ALOFT
INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES AT THE
SURFACE WILL BE TOUGHER TO ERODE UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECTING A
WINTRY MIX ON SUNDAY. CURRENT TIMING OF PRECIP SUGGESTS THE LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. OF COURSE CONFIDENCE OF
TIMING PRECIP THIS FAR OUT IS PROBLEMATIC...AND MODEL CHANGE OF
ONLY 6 HRS WILL HAVE BIG IMPLICATIONS ON JUST WHAT TYPE OF PRECIP
WILL FALL. HOWEVER AM CONCERNED ABOUT COMING OUT OF A 36 HOUR OF
SUBFREEZING TEMPS AND MODELS TRYING TO SCOUR OUT THE COLD AIR TOO
FAST. THUS ADDED A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN FOR ABOUT THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE CWA. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ALTHO THE 12Z GFS IS AGGRESSIVE MOVING THE PRECIP OUT
QUICKLY SUN NIGHT.

MON...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVING ACROSS THE MASON-DIXON LINE EARLY IN
THE DAY BRINGING END TO PRECIP. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL BY
4-8 DEGREES-F. THERE COULD BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LINGERING SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION.

TUE-WED...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TUE AND CONTINUES
THROUGH WED. TUE WILL BE COLD...ABOUT 10-14 DEGF BELOW NORMAL. TEMPS
ON WED MODERATE SOME. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING OFF THE SE COAST. BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIND GUSTS HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE TERMINALS AND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN WINDS WILL BECOME VRB03KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW WITH IT THURSDAY DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH P-TYPE...BUT
GIVEN POTENTIAL WET BULBING MAY LEAN MORE TOWARD -SN FOR THE BULK
OF THE EVENT /WHICH LIKELY ONLY LASTS A FEW HOURS/.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS 20-25KTS G 35 KTS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. NW WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
SOME FRIDAY NIGHT BUT CONTINUE OUT OF THE NW 10-15KTS G20KTS. NW
WINDS AROUND 5-10KTS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING AND SCA HAS
BEEN CANCELLED. SLY CHANNELING WILL BEGIN LATE THE AFTN THU AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT...WITH SCA CONDITIONS AGAIN LIKELY. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL SWING THRU THE AREA LATE THU AFTN/EVE...SWITCHING WINDS BACK
TO NWLY WHERE THEY STILL STAY THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO NW WINDS 20-25KTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 40 KTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GALE WARNINGS ARE LIKELY DURING THIS
TIME. NW WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOME FRIDAY NIGHT BUT WINDS SHOULD STAY
GUSTY AND GALES OR SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY. NW WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
BY SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/GMS
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...SMZ
AVIATION...BPP/GMS/SMZ
MARINE...BPP/GMS/SMZ








000
FXUS61 KLWX 290216
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
916 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER INTO EARLY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY. A WINDY AND
DRY FRIDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FOR SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION SUNDAY AND WILL
IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE. MAY HAVE A FEW CIRRUS STARTING TO
SPILL OVERTOP THE RIDGE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY LATE...BUT GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. RESULT WILL BE FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT THAT WILL SUPPORT A COLD NIGHT...USED A
BLEND OF BIAS CORRECTED MET/SREFS FOR MINIMA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DENSE HIGH CIRRUS WILL START THE DAY ON THU...W/ A CONTINUED
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL AGAIN GRADUALLY CLIMB BACK INTO THE 20S AND L30S THRU
THE MRNG. A COLD FRONT TAILING DOWN FROM A CLIPPER SYSTEM WELL TO
OUR NORTH WILL QUICKLY TRUDGE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST OVERNIGHT
AND INTO EARLY THU. BY MIDDAY...THIS FEATURE WILL BE ON THE
DOORSTEP OF THE CNTRL APLCNS - SLIDING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THRU THE EARLY AFTN HRS.

A STRENGTHENING SLY SFC WIND WILL HELP BUMP TEMPS BACK UP INTO
THE M-U30S FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THE FROPA. NRN MD
AND JUST INTO NRN VA WILL STILL BE HANGING ONTO THE NEAR OR SUB-
FREEZING SFC TEMPS AS PRECIP APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. PLENTY OF
DRY AIR WILL GREET THE INCOMING PRECIP...LIKELY PREVENTING MUCH OF
IT FROM REACHING THE SFC UNTIL FROPA TOWARD THE LATE AFTN PERIOD.
THE LOWER ATMOS OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA WILL ALLOW FOR A MIX
OF RAIN/SNOW - POSSIBLY SLEET - AS THE INITIAL WAVE OF PRECIP
ARRIVES. THE NRN TIER OF THE CWA /NRN MD/ WILL LIKELY BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SNOW W/ SOME LIQUID MIXED-IN AND THIS IS ALSO
WHERE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE...ALBEIT
VERY LIGHT. A RAIN SNOW MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TIER OF COUNTIES
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE I-66 CORRIDOR AND MUCH OF THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS/BLUE RIDGE.

THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE PROGRESSIVE...SO PRECIP CHANCES MAY BE
LIMITED TO THIS BAND AND CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DRY OUT BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY - MINUS THE APLCNS. THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL THEN BECOME
THE FOCUS OF MULTI-PERIOD UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS W/ POTENTIAL
ADVISORY SNOWS FOR THESE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS ALONG THE SPINE OF
THE CNTRL APLCNS.

AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY WHILE THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST. PVA AND A COLD POOL
ALOFT MAY LEAD TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NW WINDS WILL BE
BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH FRIDAY. HIGHER WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
AND ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE WARRANTED FOR
THESE AREAS DURING THIS TIME. COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOW 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE
LOW 30S ALONG I-95. DUE TO GUSTY WINDS...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE
IN THE TEENS TO 20S. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT BUT
SUBSIDE SOME WITH GUSTS AROUND 30MPH INTO SATURDAY MORNING. FCST MIN
TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE TO THE TEENS ELSEWHERE. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DROP FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WC ADVISORIES MAY BE WARRANTED
NORTH AND WEST OF THE BALT/DC METROS INCLUDING WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE MTNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SAT...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO
START THE DAY ON SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SLOWLY REBOUND FROM READING
IN THE TEENS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WHILE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM LOWER TEENS AND EVEN SINGLE DIGITS WEST OF
I-81. FAIR SKIES ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

SUN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST EARLY IN THE DAY.
MEANWHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY WILL HEAD EAST.
MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. THE MODELS SHOW SW WINDS ALOFT
INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES AT THE
SURFACE WILL BE TOUGHER TO ERODE UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECTING A
WINTRY MIX ON SUNDAY. CURRENT TIMING OF PRECIP SUGGESTS THE LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. OF COURSE CONFIDENCE OF
TIMING PRECIP THIS FAR OUT IS PROBLEMATIC...AND MODEL CHANGE OF
ONLY 6 HRS WILL HAVE BIG IMPLICATIONS ON JUST WHAT TYPE OF PRECIP
WILL FALL. HOWEVER AM CONCERNED ABOUT COMING OUT OF A 36 HOUR OF
SUBFREEZING TEMPS AND MODELS TRYING TO SCOUR OUT THE COLD AIR TOO
FAST. THUS ADDED A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN FOR ABOUT THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE CWA. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ALTHO THE 12Z GFS IS AGGRESSIVE MOVING THE PRECIP OUT
QUICKLY SUN NIGHT.

MON...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVING ACROSS THE MASON-DIXON LINE EARLY IN
THE DAY BRINGING END TO PRECIP. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL BY
4-8 DEGREES-F. THERE COULD BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LINGERING SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION.

TUE-WED...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TUE AND CONTINUES
THROUGH WED. TUE WILL BE COLD...ABOUT 10-14 DEGF BELOW NORMAL. TEMPS
ON WED MODERATE SOME. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING OFF THE SE COAST. BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIND GUSTS HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE TERMINALS AND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN WINDS WILL BECOME VRB03KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW WITH IT THURSDAY DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH P-TYPE...BUT
GIVEN POTENTIAL WET BULBING MAY LEAN MORE TOWARD -SN FOR THE BULK
OF THE EVENT /WHICH LIKELY ONLY LASTS A FEW HOURS/.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS 20-25KTS G 35 KTS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. NW WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
SOME FRIDAY NIGHT BUT CONTINUE OUT OF THE NW 10-15KTS G20KTS. NW
WINDS AROUND 5-10KTS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING AND SCA HAS
BEEN CANCELLED. SLY CHANNELING WILL BEGIN LATE THE AFTN THU AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT...WITH SCA CONDITIONS AGAIN LIKELY. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL SWING THRU THE AREA LATE THU AFTN/EVE...SWITCHING WINDS BACK
TO NWLY WHERE THEY STILL STAY THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO NW WINDS 20-25KTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 40 KTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GALE WARNINGS ARE LIKELY DURING THIS
TIME. NW WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOME FRIDAY NIGHT BUT WINDS SHOULD STAY
GUSTY AND GALES OR SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY. NW WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
BY SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/GMS
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...SMZ
AVIATION...BPP/GMS/SMZ
MARINE...BPP/GMS/SMZ








000
FXUS61 KLWX 290216
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
916 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER INTO EARLY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY. A WINDY AND
DRY FRIDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FOR SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION SUNDAY AND WILL
IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE. MAY HAVE A FEW CIRRUS STARTING TO
SPILL OVERTOP THE RIDGE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY LATE...BUT GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. RESULT WILL BE FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT THAT WILL SUPPORT A COLD NIGHT...USED A
BLEND OF BIAS CORRECTED MET/SREFS FOR MINIMA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DENSE HIGH CIRRUS WILL START THE DAY ON THU...W/ A CONTINUED
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL AGAIN GRADUALLY CLIMB BACK INTO THE 20S AND L30S THRU
THE MRNG. A COLD FRONT TAILING DOWN FROM A CLIPPER SYSTEM WELL TO
OUR NORTH WILL QUICKLY TRUDGE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST OVERNIGHT
AND INTO EARLY THU. BY MIDDAY...THIS FEATURE WILL BE ON THE
DOORSTEP OF THE CNTRL APLCNS - SLIDING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THRU THE EARLY AFTN HRS.

A STRENGTHENING SLY SFC WIND WILL HELP BUMP TEMPS BACK UP INTO
THE M-U30S FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THE FROPA. NRN MD
AND JUST INTO NRN VA WILL STILL BE HANGING ONTO THE NEAR OR SUB-
FREEZING SFC TEMPS AS PRECIP APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. PLENTY OF
DRY AIR WILL GREET THE INCOMING PRECIP...LIKELY PREVENTING MUCH OF
IT FROM REACHING THE SFC UNTIL FROPA TOWARD THE LATE AFTN PERIOD.
THE LOWER ATMOS OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA WILL ALLOW FOR A MIX
OF RAIN/SNOW - POSSIBLY SLEET - AS THE INITIAL WAVE OF PRECIP
ARRIVES. THE NRN TIER OF THE CWA /NRN MD/ WILL LIKELY BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SNOW W/ SOME LIQUID MIXED-IN AND THIS IS ALSO
WHERE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE...ALBEIT
VERY LIGHT. A RAIN SNOW MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TIER OF COUNTIES
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE I-66 CORRIDOR AND MUCH OF THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS/BLUE RIDGE.

THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE PROGRESSIVE...SO PRECIP CHANCES MAY BE
LIMITED TO THIS BAND AND CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DRY OUT BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY - MINUS THE APLCNS. THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL THEN BECOME
THE FOCUS OF MULTI-PERIOD UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS W/ POTENTIAL
ADVISORY SNOWS FOR THESE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS ALONG THE SPINE OF
THE CNTRL APLCNS.

AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY WHILE THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST. PVA AND A COLD POOL
ALOFT MAY LEAD TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NW WINDS WILL BE
BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH FRIDAY. HIGHER WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
AND ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE WARRANTED FOR
THESE AREAS DURING THIS TIME. COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOW 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE
LOW 30S ALONG I-95. DUE TO GUSTY WINDS...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE
IN THE TEENS TO 20S. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT BUT
SUBSIDE SOME WITH GUSTS AROUND 30MPH INTO SATURDAY MORNING. FCST MIN
TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE TO THE TEENS ELSEWHERE. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DROP FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WC ADVISORIES MAY BE WARRANTED
NORTH AND WEST OF THE BALT/DC METROS INCLUDING WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE MTNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SAT...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO
START THE DAY ON SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SLOWLY REBOUND FROM READING
IN THE TEENS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WHILE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM LOWER TEENS AND EVEN SINGLE DIGITS WEST OF
I-81. FAIR SKIES ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

SUN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST EARLY IN THE DAY.
MEANWHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY WILL HEAD EAST.
MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. THE MODELS SHOW SW WINDS ALOFT
INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES AT THE
SURFACE WILL BE TOUGHER TO ERODE UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECTING A
WINTRY MIX ON SUNDAY. CURRENT TIMING OF PRECIP SUGGESTS THE LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. OF COURSE CONFIDENCE OF
TIMING PRECIP THIS FAR OUT IS PROBLEMATIC...AND MODEL CHANGE OF
ONLY 6 HRS WILL HAVE BIG IMPLICATIONS ON JUST WHAT TYPE OF PRECIP
WILL FALL. HOWEVER AM CONCERNED ABOUT COMING OUT OF A 36 HOUR OF
SUBFREEZING TEMPS AND MODELS TRYING TO SCOUR OUT THE COLD AIR TOO
FAST. THUS ADDED A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN FOR ABOUT THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE CWA. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ALTHO THE 12Z GFS IS AGGRESSIVE MOVING THE PRECIP OUT
QUICKLY SUN NIGHT.

MON...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVING ACROSS THE MASON-DIXON LINE EARLY IN
THE DAY BRINGING END TO PRECIP. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL BY
4-8 DEGREES-F. THERE COULD BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LINGERING SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION.

TUE-WED...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TUE AND CONTINUES
THROUGH WED. TUE WILL BE COLD...ABOUT 10-14 DEGF BELOW NORMAL. TEMPS
ON WED MODERATE SOME. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING OFF THE SE COAST. BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIND GUSTS HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE TERMINALS AND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN WINDS WILL BECOME VRB03KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW WITH IT THURSDAY DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH P-TYPE...BUT
GIVEN POTENTIAL WET BULBING MAY LEAN MORE TOWARD -SN FOR THE BULK
OF THE EVENT /WHICH LIKELY ONLY LASTS A FEW HOURS/.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS 20-25KTS G 35 KTS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. NW WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
SOME FRIDAY NIGHT BUT CONTINUE OUT OF THE NW 10-15KTS G20KTS. NW
WINDS AROUND 5-10KTS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING AND SCA HAS
BEEN CANCELLED. SLY CHANNELING WILL BEGIN LATE THE AFTN THU AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT...WITH SCA CONDITIONS AGAIN LIKELY. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL SWING THRU THE AREA LATE THU AFTN/EVE...SWITCHING WINDS BACK
TO NWLY WHERE THEY STILL STAY THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO NW WINDS 20-25KTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 40 KTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GALE WARNINGS ARE LIKELY DURING THIS
TIME. NW WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOME FRIDAY NIGHT BUT WINDS SHOULD STAY
GUSTY AND GALES OR SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY. NW WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
BY SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/GMS
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...SMZ
AVIATION...BPP/GMS/SMZ
MARINE...BPP/GMS/SMZ








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290137
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
836 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CROSSING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE UPPER OHIO REGION ON THURSDAY AND SNOW EARLY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN RATHER QUIET AS DECOUPLING HAS
ALREADY OCCURRED RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. SOME TRANSLUCENT CIRRUS
COVER IS ADVANCING SOUTHEASTWARD AT THIS HOUR AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM...HOWEVER IT SEEMS TO BE HAVING LITTLE EFFECT ON
TEMPERATURE FALLS AT THE MOMENT. DEWPOINTS FROM WALL TO WALL
ACROSS THE CWA ARE NO HIGHER THAN THE LOWER TEENS...WITH MOST OF
THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
THIS COMBINED WITH NEW SNOW COVER WILL ALLOW FOR FAIRLY DECENT
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE FALLS UNDER THE INVERSION LEVELS EVEN
WHILE FAIRLY RAPID WARM ADVECTION IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO OCCUR
ALOFT.

MODEL 850 MB TEMPERATURES GENERALLY SURPASS 0C OVER THE MAJORITY
OF THE CWA EXCEPT THE NORTHEASTERN FRINGE ON THE CONSENSUS BY 12Z
THURSDAY. THIS IS EVIDENT IN SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE CWA...HOWEVER
THE MODELS LIKELY ARE FAR TOO RAPID MIXING OUT THE INVERSIONS AS
THE ADVECTION KICKS IN ALOFT. LIKEWISE...DYNAMICAL MODEL DEWPOINT
VALUES START OFF FAR TOO MOIST ACROSS THE CWA...AND WILL LIKELY
AGAIN AFFECT THE WET BULB TEMPERATURE PROFILES GOING INTO THE
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. AS SUCH...THE FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED
TOWARD THE COLDER END OF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE NIGHT...EVEN WITH
EASTWARD ADVANCING CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION ALOFT BUILDING IN.

THE REAL FUN BEGINS SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE IN OHIO...AND SPREADS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. A FAIRLY POTENT 500 MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED IN THE LEFT EXIT OF A 120 KT JET STREAK BLISTERS
THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LLJ DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF THIS...WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZED ON ITS
NOSE...WHICH COINCIDENTALLY RUNS ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. THIS POINTS TOWARD WARM ADVECTION
BEING VERY EFFICIENT ACROSS THE AREA BY THAT JUNCTURE...AND SHOULD
ALLOW MUCH OF THE AREA TO RUN UP ABOVE FREEZING ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...BEFORE THAT OCCURS...COLD AIR WILL NEED TO BE
DISPLACED...AND WET BULB EFFECTS WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME. IN THE
INTERIM...THIS MEANS A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
WARM AIR WORKS IN OFF THE SURFACE BEFORE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS OHIO SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE OVER OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AS THE PRECIPITATION
ONSET WILL BE CLOSEST TO SUNRISE THERE. AS A RESULT...OVERNIGHT
INVERSIONS ARE UNLIKELY TO HAVE BEEN WIPED OUT BY THAT
JUNCTURE...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF ICING BEING LIKELY. FARTHER
EAST...THE DETAILS GET A LITTLE BIT MURKY.

THE RACE BETWEEN ONSET...WET BULBING...BOUNDARY LAYER MIX
OUT...AND WARM ADVECTION WILL BE A CLOSE RACE VIRTUALLY
EVERYWHERE. AT THE MOMENT...IT SEEMS AT LEAST FOR A TIME...THAT
NORTH OF THE TURNPIKE...AT LEAST A PERIOD OF SNOW/ICE WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH REALLY ONLY ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY BY AFTERNOON
ALONG I-80 AND IN THE RIDGES OF PA AND MD. ELSEWHERE...A LATE
ONSET SHOULD ALLOW FOR GROUND TEMPERATURES TO RISE ENOUGH SUCH
THAT PLAIN RAIN WILL DOMINATE AND PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ICING. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WHILE WARM ADVECTION LOOKS RAPID AHEAD OF THE FIRST WAVE ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THERMAL PROFILES QUICKLY BECOME MUCH MORE
UNSTABLE BY THURSDAY EVENING. COLD ADVECTION BEGINS IN EARNEST
ALOFT AS TWO MORE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE SET TO CROSS THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL OCCUR SIMULTANEOUSLY TO THE
SOME DRIER AIR COMING IN...HOWEVER THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER
LOOKS TO ABSOLUTELY CRASH TOWARD THE SURFACE ON THURSDAY NIGHT IN
THE RIDGES...WELL BEFORE THE MOISTURE PEELS OFF. CONSENSUS SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS FROM THE NAM AND GFS VIA BUFKIT SUGGEST AROUND 25 TO
1 BEGIN LIKELY OVERNIGHT. GIVEN INSTABILITY AND UNIDIRECTIONAL
UPSLOPE...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN VERY EFFICIENT SNOW GROWTH. MODEL
QPF IS GENERALLY ONLY A COUPLE OF TENTHS...AND GIVEN ICE COVER
UPSTREAM ON LAKE ERIE...A TON OF QPF IS VERY UNLIKELY.
HOWEVER...EVEN LIGHT QPF IN THIS CASE IS LIKELY TO ADD UP TO
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. GIVEN THAT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY
THERE COULD BE AN INCH OR SO IN SOME OF THE SHELTERED HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND ANOTHER 2 TO 5 SEEM LIKELY IN THE UPSLOPE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC HELP VIA TWO ADDITIONAL WAVES
CROSSING THE AREA...3 TO 6 INCH TOTALS SEEM REASONABLE IN THE
RIDGES BY FRIDAY MORNING. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE EXPANDED
TO ACCOMMODATE THIS. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY HIGH
CLOUDS. LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING PRECIPITATION TO ALL SITES FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE TRICKY...WITH MGW THE ONLY
SITE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WILL NOT HAVE FREEZING RAIN. HAVE
ONLY MENTIONED FZRA EXPLICITLY IN THE TAFS FOR FKL/DUJ FOR A
COUPLE HOUR TIME PERIOD...BUT A BRIEF 1-3 HOUR PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT OTHER TERMINALS. SIMILIARLY...WHILE
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS ONLY INCLUDED IN THE ZZV TAF...CANNOT RULE
OUT A BRIEF 1-3 HOUR PERIOD OF LLWS AT OTHER TERMINALS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION STARTS AND HIGHER WINDS ALOFT ARE ABLE TO MIX OUT AS
GUSTS. OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO QUICKLY DROP TO
IFR IN PRECIPITATION AS LOWER CEILINGS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY THRU ERLY FRI AS A CDFNT EXITS. WDSRPD RSTRNS
ARE LIKELY AGAIN WITH ADVNG LOW PRES SUN AND MON.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO NOON EST THURSDAY FOR
     OHZ048-057.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR PAZ007>009-015-016-023-074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR WVZ023-041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290137
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
836 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CROSSING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE UPPER OHIO REGION ON THURSDAY AND SNOW EARLY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN RATHER QUIET AS DECOUPLING HAS
ALREADY OCCURRED RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. SOME TRANSLUCENT CIRRUS
COVER IS ADVANCING SOUTHEASTWARD AT THIS HOUR AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM...HOWEVER IT SEEMS TO BE HAVING LITTLE EFFECT ON
TEMPERATURE FALLS AT THE MOMENT. DEWPOINTS FROM WALL TO WALL
ACROSS THE CWA ARE NO HIGHER THAN THE LOWER TEENS...WITH MOST OF
THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
THIS COMBINED WITH NEW SNOW COVER WILL ALLOW FOR FAIRLY DECENT
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE FALLS UNDER THE INVERSION LEVELS EVEN
WHILE FAIRLY RAPID WARM ADVECTION IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO OCCUR
ALOFT.

MODEL 850 MB TEMPERATURES GENERALLY SURPASS 0C OVER THE MAJORITY
OF THE CWA EXCEPT THE NORTHEASTERN FRINGE ON THE CONSENSUS BY 12Z
THURSDAY. THIS IS EVIDENT IN SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE CWA...HOWEVER
THE MODELS LIKELY ARE FAR TOO RAPID MIXING OUT THE INVERSIONS AS
THE ADVECTION KICKS IN ALOFT. LIKEWISE...DYNAMICAL MODEL DEWPOINT
VALUES START OFF FAR TOO MOIST ACROSS THE CWA...AND WILL LIKELY
AGAIN AFFECT THE WET BULB TEMPERATURE PROFILES GOING INTO THE
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. AS SUCH...THE FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED
TOWARD THE COLDER END OF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE NIGHT...EVEN WITH
EASTWARD ADVANCING CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION ALOFT BUILDING IN.

THE REAL FUN BEGINS SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE IN OHIO...AND SPREADS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. A FAIRLY POTENT 500 MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED IN THE LEFT EXIT OF A 120 KT JET STREAK BLISTERS
THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LLJ DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF THIS...WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZED ON ITS
NOSE...WHICH COINCIDENTALLY RUNS ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. THIS POINTS TOWARD WARM ADVECTION
BEING VERY EFFICIENT ACROSS THE AREA BY THAT JUNCTURE...AND SHOULD
ALLOW MUCH OF THE AREA TO RUN UP ABOVE FREEZING ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...BEFORE THAT OCCURS...COLD AIR WILL NEED TO BE
DISPLACED...AND WET BULB EFFECTS WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME. IN THE
INTERIM...THIS MEANS A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
WARM AIR WORKS IN OFF THE SURFACE BEFORE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS OHIO SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE OVER OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AS THE PRECIPITATION
ONSET WILL BE CLOSEST TO SUNRISE THERE. AS A RESULT...OVERNIGHT
INVERSIONS ARE UNLIKELY TO HAVE BEEN WIPED OUT BY THAT
JUNCTURE...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF ICING BEING LIKELY. FARTHER
EAST...THE DETAILS GET A LITTLE BIT MURKY.

THE RACE BETWEEN ONSET...WET BULBING...BOUNDARY LAYER MIX
OUT...AND WARM ADVECTION WILL BE A CLOSE RACE VIRTUALLY
EVERYWHERE. AT THE MOMENT...IT SEEMS AT LEAST FOR A TIME...THAT
NORTH OF THE TURNPIKE...AT LEAST A PERIOD OF SNOW/ICE WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH REALLY ONLY ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY BY AFTERNOON
ALONG I-80 AND IN THE RIDGES OF PA AND MD. ELSEWHERE...A LATE
ONSET SHOULD ALLOW FOR GROUND TEMPERATURES TO RISE ENOUGH SUCH
THAT PLAIN RAIN WILL DOMINATE AND PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ICING. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WHILE WARM ADVECTION LOOKS RAPID AHEAD OF THE FIRST WAVE ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THERMAL PROFILES QUICKLY BECOME MUCH MORE
UNSTABLE BY THURSDAY EVENING. COLD ADVECTION BEGINS IN EARNEST
ALOFT AS TWO MORE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE SET TO CROSS THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL OCCUR SIMULTANEOUSLY TO THE
SOME DRIER AIR COMING IN...HOWEVER THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER
LOOKS TO ABSOLUTELY CRASH TOWARD THE SURFACE ON THURSDAY NIGHT IN
THE RIDGES...WELL BEFORE THE MOISTURE PEELS OFF. CONSENSUS SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS FROM THE NAM AND GFS VIA BUFKIT SUGGEST AROUND 25 TO
1 BEGIN LIKELY OVERNIGHT. GIVEN INSTABILITY AND UNIDIRECTIONAL
UPSLOPE...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN VERY EFFICIENT SNOW GROWTH. MODEL
QPF IS GENERALLY ONLY A COUPLE OF TENTHS...AND GIVEN ICE COVER
UPSTREAM ON LAKE ERIE...A TON OF QPF IS VERY UNLIKELY.
HOWEVER...EVEN LIGHT QPF IN THIS CASE IS LIKELY TO ADD UP TO
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. GIVEN THAT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY
THERE COULD BE AN INCH OR SO IN SOME OF THE SHELTERED HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND ANOTHER 2 TO 5 SEEM LIKELY IN THE UPSLOPE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC HELP VIA TWO ADDITIONAL WAVES
CROSSING THE AREA...3 TO 6 INCH TOTALS SEEM REASONABLE IN THE
RIDGES BY FRIDAY MORNING. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE EXPANDED
TO ACCOMMODATE THIS. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY HIGH
CLOUDS. LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING PRECIPITATION TO ALL SITES FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE TRICKY...WITH MGW THE ONLY
SITE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WILL NOT HAVE FREEZING RAIN. HAVE
ONLY MENTIONED FZRA EXPLICITLY IN THE TAFS FOR FKL/DUJ FOR A
COUPLE HOUR TIME PERIOD...BUT A BRIEF 1-3 HOUR PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT OTHER TERMINALS. SIMILIARLY...WHILE
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS ONLY INCLUDED IN THE ZZV TAF...CANNOT RULE
OUT A BRIEF 1-3 HOUR PERIOD OF LLWS AT OTHER TERMINALS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION STARTS AND HIGHER WINDS ALOFT ARE ABLE TO MIX OUT AS
GUSTS. OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO QUICKLY DROP TO
IFR IN PRECIPITATION AS LOWER CEILINGS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY THRU ERLY FRI AS A CDFNT EXITS. WDSRPD RSTRNS
ARE LIKELY AGAIN WITH ADVNG LOW PRES SUN AND MON.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO NOON EST THURSDAY FOR
     OHZ048-057.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR PAZ007>009-015-016-023-074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR WVZ023-041.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290034
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
734 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC TONIGHT. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE THURSDAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~1024 MB HI PRES CENTERED NR THE OH/WV
BORDER. ALOFT...A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED UPR-LEVEL TROF IS PUSHING OFF
THE ERN SEABOARD WITH RIDGING OVER THE MIDWEST STATES. THE SFC HI
SLIDES E INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TNGT...ALLOWING FOR THE CLEAR SKIES
TO CONTINUE. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 10-20 MPH THIS AFTN/EVENG WILL
DIMINISH OVRNGT SO WIND CHILLS WILL NOT BE AS LO AS LAST NIGHT
DESPITE COLDER TEMPS. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPR 20S TO LWR
30S WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE UPR TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDS WITH CONTINUED BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SLY FLOW RETURNS THU AFTN AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE REGION THU NIGHT. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS
THRU THE DAY WITH HI TEMPS RANGING FM THE LWR 40S N TO UPR 40S S.
MAINTAINED A LO CHANCE FOR RA (20-30% POPS) LATE THU AFTN FOR
AREAS N AND W OF RIC...CONTINUING TO AREAS N OF I-64 THU NIGHT AS
THE FRNT MOVES THRU. DESPITE DECENT FORCING...MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING HENCE THE LO POPS. PTYPE IS RA THU AFTN/EVENG
TRANSITIONING TO POTENTIALLY SOME IP/SN MIXED IN OVRNGT. NO BIG
IMPACTS ANTICIPATED WITH VERY LITTLE QPF EXPECTED. HI PRES THEN
SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W FRI LEADING TO DRY CONDS...DECREASING
CLOUDS...AND HI TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S. CONTINUED DRY WX
INTO SAT UNDER A SUNNY-MSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TIMING DIFFERENCES ALONG WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT 12Z MODEL CHANGES
MAKES THIS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST SUN INTO MON. GFS MUCH FASTER
IN BRINGING PCPN ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC RGN SUNDAY THAN BOTH THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN. THE QUICKER GFS SOLN WOULD LEAD TO P-TYPE ISSUES
ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS SUNDAY WHILE THE SLOWER SOLNS WUD MAINLY BE
RAIN (OR A RAIN WET SNOW MIX ACROSS THE NORTH) IN THE AFTRN.
CONVERSELY...THE GFS IS QUICKER TO END PCPN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE SLOWER SOLNS KEEP PCPN GOING FOR THE BETTER PART OF MON WITH
COLDER AIR OOZING SOUTH.

WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...TRIED TO BLEND THE FORECAST AS MUCH AS PSBL
KNOWING THAT LATER MODEL RUNS SHOULD SHED BETTER LIGHT ON THE SYSTM.
DRY AND COLD SAT NIGHT WITH INCRG CLDNS. LOWS IN THE 20S XCPT L30S
SERN CSTL AREAS. KEPT A BIT OF FCST CONTINUITY AND BROUGHT LOW CHC
POPS ACROSS WRN CNTYS SUNDAY MORNING. THICKNESSES SUGGEST SOME SLEET
PSBL AT THE START ACROSS NWRN MOST CNTYS WITH RAIN OVRSPRDG THE FA
SUNDAY AFTRN AS THE LOW PRS TRACKS ACROSS NRN VA. HIGHS IN THE 40S
AS THE COLD AIR LURKS JUST NORTH OF THE FA. LIKELY RAIN SUNDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE FA...BUT LWRD TO CHC POPS AFTR MIDNIGHT. KEPT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS LATE AS THE PCPN ENDS. ANY P TYPE
ISSUES WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH CAN
COME SOUTH BEFORE PCPN ENDS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO NR 40
ACROSS NC NE CNTYS NR THE ALBEMARLE SND.

SPLIT MONDAYS FCST UP INTO 2 SEGMENTS AS WELL. CHC RAIN ALONG AND
EAST OF I95 IN THE MORNING...DRYING IT OUT IN THE AFTRN AS THE
TRAILING FRNT CLRS THE COAST. COULD EVEN SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
THE LWR MD ERN SHORE ERLY MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE U30S N TO M-U40S S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT THRU TUES NIGHT.
LOWS MON NITE UTEENS TO U20S. HIGHS TUE IN THE 30S. LOWS TUE NIGHT
IN THE 20S TO NR 30.

YET ANTHR MOIST SRN STREAM SYSTM PROGGED TO COME OUT OF THE GULF
COAST STATES AND MOVE NE ALONG THE SERN COAST WED. THIS SYTM BEARS
WATCHING AS THE COLD AIR MAY BE HARDER TO DISLODGE. WENT WITH CHC
POPS (LIQUID) FOR NOW WITH HIGHS 40-45.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW THIS
EVENING UNDER CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT RESULTING IN A CLEAR SKY AND CALM TO VERY LIGHT WIND. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NW. THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN
HIGH CLOUDS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA ALONG AND N OF A RIC-SBY LINE...AND PERHAPS
PCPN ENDING AS A MIX OF -RASN AT SBY. A GUSTY NW WIND IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. THAT AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH A MORE MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
CRNT SCA`S CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS SCNDRY CAA SURGE SEEN IN THE
DATA THIS EVENING. SEAS STILL AOA 5 FT...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY SUBSIDE
AFTR MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE W.

ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF "SUB SCA" CNDTNS XPCTD THU BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTM APPRCHS FROM THE WEST. WINDS QUICKLY BECOME SOUTH THU AS HIGH
PRS MOVES OFF THE COAST...THEN SW AS A WRM FRNT BRIEFLY LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A STRNG CDFRNT ERLY FRI MORNING. WILL
LIKELY SEE SCA`S FOR THE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRNT.

CTRNG CAA PROGGED BEHIND THE CD FRNT FRI INTO SAT. WNDS BECOME NW
AND INCRS INTO THE GALE RANGE. DATA SUGGESTS GUSTS BTWN 40-45 KTS
ACROSS THE CSTL WTRS (HIGHEST NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISL) WITH 35 KTS
GUSTS IN THE CHES BAY. GIVEN TMPS FALLING BLO 30 DEGREES...FREEZING
SPRAY REMAINS IN FORECAST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZING SPRAY
ADVSRY ACROSS NRN CSTL WTRS WHERE AIR TMPS IN THE L20S ARE XPCTD.
SEAS/WAVES QUICKLY INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE GUSTY WINDS. SEAS AVG
7-10 FT WITH WAVES 4-5 FT DURING THIS PERIOD.

CNDTNS BEGIN TO IMPROVE SAT NIGHT AS THE CANADIAN HIGH TRACKS OVR
THE RGN. NXT SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE SUN INTO MON. WILL LIKELY SEE ANTHR ROUND OF SCA`S
WITH THIS SYSTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...AJZ/DAP
MARINE...MPR






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290034
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
734 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC TONIGHT. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE THURSDAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~1024 MB HI PRES CENTERED NR THE OH/WV
BORDER. ALOFT...A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED UPR-LEVEL TROF IS PUSHING OFF
THE ERN SEABOARD WITH RIDGING OVER THE MIDWEST STATES. THE SFC HI
SLIDES E INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TNGT...ALLOWING FOR THE CLEAR SKIES
TO CONTINUE. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 10-20 MPH THIS AFTN/EVENG WILL
DIMINISH OVRNGT SO WIND CHILLS WILL NOT BE AS LO AS LAST NIGHT
DESPITE COLDER TEMPS. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPR 20S TO LWR
30S WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE UPR TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDS WITH CONTINUED BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SLY FLOW RETURNS THU AFTN AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE REGION THU NIGHT. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS
THRU THE DAY WITH HI TEMPS RANGING FM THE LWR 40S N TO UPR 40S S.
MAINTAINED A LO CHANCE FOR RA (20-30% POPS) LATE THU AFTN FOR
AREAS N AND W OF RIC...CONTINUING TO AREAS N OF I-64 THU NIGHT AS
THE FRNT MOVES THRU. DESPITE DECENT FORCING...MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING HENCE THE LO POPS. PTYPE IS RA THU AFTN/EVENG
TRANSITIONING TO POTENTIALLY SOME IP/SN MIXED IN OVRNGT. NO BIG
IMPACTS ANTICIPATED WITH VERY LITTLE QPF EXPECTED. HI PRES THEN
SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W FRI LEADING TO DRY CONDS...DECREASING
CLOUDS...AND HI TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S. CONTINUED DRY WX
INTO SAT UNDER A SUNNY-MSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TIMING DIFFERENCES ALONG WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT 12Z MODEL CHANGES
MAKES THIS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST SUN INTO MON. GFS MUCH FASTER
IN BRINGING PCPN ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC RGN SUNDAY THAN BOTH THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN. THE QUICKER GFS SOLN WOULD LEAD TO P-TYPE ISSUES
ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS SUNDAY WHILE THE SLOWER SOLNS WUD MAINLY BE
RAIN (OR A RAIN WET SNOW MIX ACROSS THE NORTH) IN THE AFTRN.
CONVERSELY...THE GFS IS QUICKER TO END PCPN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE SLOWER SOLNS KEEP PCPN GOING FOR THE BETTER PART OF MON WITH
COLDER AIR OOZING SOUTH.

WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...TRIED TO BLEND THE FORECAST AS MUCH AS PSBL
KNOWING THAT LATER MODEL RUNS SHOULD SHED BETTER LIGHT ON THE SYSTM.
DRY AND COLD SAT NIGHT WITH INCRG CLDNS. LOWS IN THE 20S XCPT L30S
SERN CSTL AREAS. KEPT A BIT OF FCST CONTINUITY AND BROUGHT LOW CHC
POPS ACROSS WRN CNTYS SUNDAY MORNING. THICKNESSES SUGGEST SOME SLEET
PSBL AT THE START ACROSS NWRN MOST CNTYS WITH RAIN OVRSPRDG THE FA
SUNDAY AFTRN AS THE LOW PRS TRACKS ACROSS NRN VA. HIGHS IN THE 40S
AS THE COLD AIR LURKS JUST NORTH OF THE FA. LIKELY RAIN SUNDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE FA...BUT LWRD TO CHC POPS AFTR MIDNIGHT. KEPT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS LATE AS THE PCPN ENDS. ANY P TYPE
ISSUES WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH CAN
COME SOUTH BEFORE PCPN ENDS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO NR 40
ACROSS NC NE CNTYS NR THE ALBEMARLE SND.

SPLIT MONDAYS FCST UP INTO 2 SEGMENTS AS WELL. CHC RAIN ALONG AND
EAST OF I95 IN THE MORNING...DRYING IT OUT IN THE AFTRN AS THE
TRAILING FRNT CLRS THE COAST. COULD EVEN SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
THE LWR MD ERN SHORE ERLY MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE U30S N TO M-U40S S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT THRU TUES NIGHT.
LOWS MON NITE UTEENS TO U20S. HIGHS TUE IN THE 30S. LOWS TUE NIGHT
IN THE 20S TO NR 30.

YET ANTHR MOIST SRN STREAM SYSTM PROGGED TO COME OUT OF THE GULF
COAST STATES AND MOVE NE ALONG THE SERN COAST WED. THIS SYTM BEARS
WATCHING AS THE COLD AIR MAY BE HARDER TO DISLODGE. WENT WITH CHC
POPS (LIQUID) FOR NOW WITH HIGHS 40-45.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW THIS
EVENING UNDER CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT RESULTING IN A CLEAR SKY AND CALM TO VERY LIGHT WIND. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NW. THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN
HIGH CLOUDS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA ALONG AND N OF A RIC-SBY LINE...AND PERHAPS
PCPN ENDING AS A MIX OF -RASN AT SBY. A GUSTY NW WIND IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. THAT AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH A MORE MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
CRNT SCA`S CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS SCNDRY CAA SURGE SEEN IN THE
DATA THIS EVENING. SEAS STILL AOA 5 FT...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY SUBSIDE
AFTR MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE W.

ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF "SUB SCA" CNDTNS XPCTD THU BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTM APPRCHS FROM THE WEST. WINDS QUICKLY BECOME SOUTH THU AS HIGH
PRS MOVES OFF THE COAST...THEN SW AS A WRM FRNT BRIEFLY LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A STRNG CDFRNT ERLY FRI MORNING. WILL
LIKELY SEE SCA`S FOR THE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRNT.

CTRNG CAA PROGGED BEHIND THE CD FRNT FRI INTO SAT. WNDS BECOME NW
AND INCRS INTO THE GALE RANGE. DATA SUGGESTS GUSTS BTWN 40-45 KTS
ACROSS THE CSTL WTRS (HIGHEST NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISL) WITH 35 KTS
GUSTS IN THE CHES BAY. GIVEN TMPS FALLING BLO 30 DEGREES...FREEZING
SPRAY REMAINS IN FORECAST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZING SPRAY
ADVSRY ACROSS NRN CSTL WTRS WHERE AIR TMPS IN THE L20S ARE XPCTD.
SEAS/WAVES QUICKLY INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE GUSTY WINDS. SEAS AVG
7-10 FT WITH WAVES 4-5 FT DURING THIS PERIOD.

CNDTNS BEGIN TO IMPROVE SAT NIGHT AS THE CANADIAN HIGH TRACKS OVR
THE RGN. NXT SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE SUN INTO MON. WILL LIKELY SEE ANTHR ROUND OF SCA`S
WITH THIS SYSTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...AJZ/DAP
MARINE...MPR






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290034
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
734 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC TONIGHT. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE THURSDAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~1024 MB HI PRES CENTERED NR THE OH/WV
BORDER. ALOFT...A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED UPR-LEVEL TROF IS PUSHING OFF
THE ERN SEABOARD WITH RIDGING OVER THE MIDWEST STATES. THE SFC HI
SLIDES E INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TNGT...ALLOWING FOR THE CLEAR SKIES
TO CONTINUE. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 10-20 MPH THIS AFTN/EVENG WILL
DIMINISH OVRNGT SO WIND CHILLS WILL NOT BE AS LO AS LAST NIGHT
DESPITE COLDER TEMPS. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPR 20S TO LWR
30S WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE UPR TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDS WITH CONTINUED BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SLY FLOW RETURNS THU AFTN AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE REGION THU NIGHT. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS
THRU THE DAY WITH HI TEMPS RANGING FM THE LWR 40S N TO UPR 40S S.
MAINTAINED A LO CHANCE FOR RA (20-30% POPS) LATE THU AFTN FOR
AREAS N AND W OF RIC...CONTINUING TO AREAS N OF I-64 THU NIGHT AS
THE FRNT MOVES THRU. DESPITE DECENT FORCING...MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING HENCE THE LO POPS. PTYPE IS RA THU AFTN/EVENG
TRANSITIONING TO POTENTIALLY SOME IP/SN MIXED IN OVRNGT. NO BIG
IMPACTS ANTICIPATED WITH VERY LITTLE QPF EXPECTED. HI PRES THEN
SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W FRI LEADING TO DRY CONDS...DECREASING
CLOUDS...AND HI TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S. CONTINUED DRY WX
INTO SAT UNDER A SUNNY-MSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TIMING DIFFERENCES ALONG WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT 12Z MODEL CHANGES
MAKES THIS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST SUN INTO MON. GFS MUCH FASTER
IN BRINGING PCPN ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC RGN SUNDAY THAN BOTH THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN. THE QUICKER GFS SOLN WOULD LEAD TO P-TYPE ISSUES
ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS SUNDAY WHILE THE SLOWER SOLNS WUD MAINLY BE
RAIN (OR A RAIN WET SNOW MIX ACROSS THE NORTH) IN THE AFTRN.
CONVERSELY...THE GFS IS QUICKER TO END PCPN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE SLOWER SOLNS KEEP PCPN GOING FOR THE BETTER PART OF MON WITH
COLDER AIR OOZING SOUTH.

WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...TRIED TO BLEND THE FORECAST AS MUCH AS PSBL
KNOWING THAT LATER MODEL RUNS SHOULD SHED BETTER LIGHT ON THE SYSTM.
DRY AND COLD SAT NIGHT WITH INCRG CLDNS. LOWS IN THE 20S XCPT L30S
SERN CSTL AREAS. KEPT A BIT OF FCST CONTINUITY AND BROUGHT LOW CHC
POPS ACROSS WRN CNTYS SUNDAY MORNING. THICKNESSES SUGGEST SOME SLEET
PSBL AT THE START ACROSS NWRN MOST CNTYS WITH RAIN OVRSPRDG THE FA
SUNDAY AFTRN AS THE LOW PRS TRACKS ACROSS NRN VA. HIGHS IN THE 40S
AS THE COLD AIR LURKS JUST NORTH OF THE FA. LIKELY RAIN SUNDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE FA...BUT LWRD TO CHC POPS AFTR MIDNIGHT. KEPT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS LATE AS THE PCPN ENDS. ANY P TYPE
ISSUES WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH CAN
COME SOUTH BEFORE PCPN ENDS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO NR 40
ACROSS NC NE CNTYS NR THE ALBEMARLE SND.

SPLIT MONDAYS FCST UP INTO 2 SEGMENTS AS WELL. CHC RAIN ALONG AND
EAST OF I95 IN THE MORNING...DRYING IT OUT IN THE AFTRN AS THE
TRAILING FRNT CLRS THE COAST. COULD EVEN SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
THE LWR MD ERN SHORE ERLY MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE U30S N TO M-U40S S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT THRU TUES NIGHT.
LOWS MON NITE UTEENS TO U20S. HIGHS TUE IN THE 30S. LOWS TUE NIGHT
IN THE 20S TO NR 30.

YET ANTHR MOIST SRN STREAM SYSTM PROGGED TO COME OUT OF THE GULF
COAST STATES AND MOVE NE ALONG THE SERN COAST WED. THIS SYTM BEARS
WATCHING AS THE COLD AIR MAY BE HARDER TO DISLODGE. WENT WITH CHC
POPS (LIQUID) FOR NOW WITH HIGHS 40-45.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW THIS
EVENING UNDER CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT RESULTING IN A CLEAR SKY AND CALM TO VERY LIGHT WIND. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NW. THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN
HIGH CLOUDS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA ALONG AND N OF A RIC-SBY LINE...AND PERHAPS
PCPN ENDING AS A MIX OF -RASN AT SBY. A GUSTY NW WIND IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. THAT AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH A MORE MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
CRNT SCA`S CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS SCNDRY CAA SURGE SEEN IN THE
DATA THIS EVENING. SEAS STILL AOA 5 FT...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY SUBSIDE
AFTR MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE W.

ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF "SUB SCA" CNDTNS XPCTD THU BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTM APPRCHS FROM THE WEST. WINDS QUICKLY BECOME SOUTH THU AS HIGH
PRS MOVES OFF THE COAST...THEN SW AS A WRM FRNT BRIEFLY LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A STRNG CDFRNT ERLY FRI MORNING. WILL
LIKELY SEE SCA`S FOR THE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRNT.

CTRNG CAA PROGGED BEHIND THE CD FRNT FRI INTO SAT. WNDS BECOME NW
AND INCRS INTO THE GALE RANGE. DATA SUGGESTS GUSTS BTWN 40-45 KTS
ACROSS THE CSTL WTRS (HIGHEST NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISL) WITH 35 KTS
GUSTS IN THE CHES BAY. GIVEN TMPS FALLING BLO 30 DEGREES...FREEZING
SPRAY REMAINS IN FORECAST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZING SPRAY
ADVSRY ACROSS NRN CSTL WTRS WHERE AIR TMPS IN THE L20S ARE XPCTD.
SEAS/WAVES QUICKLY INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE GUSTY WINDS. SEAS AVG
7-10 FT WITH WAVES 4-5 FT DURING THIS PERIOD.

CNDTNS BEGIN TO IMPROVE SAT NIGHT AS THE CANADIAN HIGH TRACKS OVR
THE RGN. NXT SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE SUN INTO MON. WILL LIKELY SEE ANTHR ROUND OF SCA`S
WITH THIS SYSTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...AJZ/DAP
MARINE...MPR






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290034
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
734 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC TONIGHT. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE THURSDAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~1024 MB HI PRES CENTERED NR THE OH/WV
BORDER. ALOFT...A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED UPR-LEVEL TROF IS PUSHING OFF
THE ERN SEABOARD WITH RIDGING OVER THE MIDWEST STATES. THE SFC HI
SLIDES E INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TNGT...ALLOWING FOR THE CLEAR SKIES
TO CONTINUE. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 10-20 MPH THIS AFTN/EVENG WILL
DIMINISH OVRNGT SO WIND CHILLS WILL NOT BE AS LO AS LAST NIGHT
DESPITE COLDER TEMPS. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPR 20S TO LWR
30S WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE UPR TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDS WITH CONTINUED BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SLY FLOW RETURNS THU AFTN AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE REGION THU NIGHT. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS
THRU THE DAY WITH HI TEMPS RANGING FM THE LWR 40S N TO UPR 40S S.
MAINTAINED A LO CHANCE FOR RA (20-30% POPS) LATE THU AFTN FOR
AREAS N AND W OF RIC...CONTINUING TO AREAS N OF I-64 THU NIGHT AS
THE FRNT MOVES THRU. DESPITE DECENT FORCING...MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING HENCE THE LO POPS. PTYPE IS RA THU AFTN/EVENG
TRANSITIONING TO POTENTIALLY SOME IP/SN MIXED IN OVRNGT. NO BIG
IMPACTS ANTICIPATED WITH VERY LITTLE QPF EXPECTED. HI PRES THEN
SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W FRI LEADING TO DRY CONDS...DECREASING
CLOUDS...AND HI TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S. CONTINUED DRY WX
INTO SAT UNDER A SUNNY-MSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TIMING DIFFERENCES ALONG WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT 12Z MODEL CHANGES
MAKES THIS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST SUN INTO MON. GFS MUCH FASTER
IN BRINGING PCPN ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC RGN SUNDAY THAN BOTH THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN. THE QUICKER GFS SOLN WOULD LEAD TO P-TYPE ISSUES
ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS SUNDAY WHILE THE SLOWER SOLNS WUD MAINLY BE
RAIN (OR A RAIN WET SNOW MIX ACROSS THE NORTH) IN THE AFTRN.
CONVERSELY...THE GFS IS QUICKER TO END PCPN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE SLOWER SOLNS KEEP PCPN GOING FOR THE BETTER PART OF MON WITH
COLDER AIR OOZING SOUTH.

WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...TRIED TO BLEND THE FORECAST AS MUCH AS PSBL
KNOWING THAT LATER MODEL RUNS SHOULD SHED BETTER LIGHT ON THE SYSTM.
DRY AND COLD SAT NIGHT WITH INCRG CLDNS. LOWS IN THE 20S XCPT L30S
SERN CSTL AREAS. KEPT A BIT OF FCST CONTINUITY AND BROUGHT LOW CHC
POPS ACROSS WRN CNTYS SUNDAY MORNING. THICKNESSES SUGGEST SOME SLEET
PSBL AT THE START ACROSS NWRN MOST CNTYS WITH RAIN OVRSPRDG THE FA
SUNDAY AFTRN AS THE LOW PRS TRACKS ACROSS NRN VA. HIGHS IN THE 40S
AS THE COLD AIR LURKS JUST NORTH OF THE FA. LIKELY RAIN SUNDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE FA...BUT LWRD TO CHC POPS AFTR MIDNIGHT. KEPT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS LATE AS THE PCPN ENDS. ANY P TYPE
ISSUES WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH CAN
COME SOUTH BEFORE PCPN ENDS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO NR 40
ACROSS NC NE CNTYS NR THE ALBEMARLE SND.

SPLIT MONDAYS FCST UP INTO 2 SEGMENTS AS WELL. CHC RAIN ALONG AND
EAST OF I95 IN THE MORNING...DRYING IT OUT IN THE AFTRN AS THE
TRAILING FRNT CLRS THE COAST. COULD EVEN SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
THE LWR MD ERN SHORE ERLY MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE U30S N TO M-U40S S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT THRU TUES NIGHT.
LOWS MON NITE UTEENS TO U20S. HIGHS TUE IN THE 30S. LOWS TUE NIGHT
IN THE 20S TO NR 30.

YET ANTHR MOIST SRN STREAM SYSTM PROGGED TO COME OUT OF THE GULF
COAST STATES AND MOVE NE ALONG THE SERN COAST WED. THIS SYTM BEARS
WATCHING AS THE COLD AIR MAY BE HARDER TO DISLODGE. WENT WITH CHC
POPS (LIQUID) FOR NOW WITH HIGHS 40-45.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW THIS
EVENING UNDER CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT RESULTING IN A CLEAR SKY AND CALM TO VERY LIGHT WIND. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NW. THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN
HIGH CLOUDS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA ALONG AND N OF A RIC-SBY LINE...AND PERHAPS
PCPN ENDING AS A MIX OF -RASN AT SBY. A GUSTY NW WIND IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. THAT AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH A MORE MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
CRNT SCA`S CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS SCNDRY CAA SURGE SEEN IN THE
DATA THIS EVENING. SEAS STILL AOA 5 FT...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY SUBSIDE
AFTR MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE W.

ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF "SUB SCA" CNDTNS XPCTD THU BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTM APPRCHS FROM THE WEST. WINDS QUICKLY BECOME SOUTH THU AS HIGH
PRS MOVES OFF THE COAST...THEN SW AS A WRM FRNT BRIEFLY LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A STRNG CDFRNT ERLY FRI MORNING. WILL
LIKELY SEE SCA`S FOR THE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRNT.

CTRNG CAA PROGGED BEHIND THE CD FRNT FRI INTO SAT. WNDS BECOME NW
AND INCRS INTO THE GALE RANGE. DATA SUGGESTS GUSTS BTWN 40-45 KTS
ACROSS THE CSTL WTRS (HIGHEST NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISL) WITH 35 KTS
GUSTS IN THE CHES BAY. GIVEN TMPS FALLING BLO 30 DEGREES...FREEZING
SPRAY REMAINS IN FORECAST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZING SPRAY
ADVSRY ACROSS NRN CSTL WTRS WHERE AIR TMPS IN THE L20S ARE XPCTD.
SEAS/WAVES QUICKLY INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE GUSTY WINDS. SEAS AVG
7-10 FT WITH WAVES 4-5 FT DURING THIS PERIOD.

CNDTNS BEGIN TO IMPROVE SAT NIGHT AS THE CANADIAN HIGH TRACKS OVR
THE RGN. NXT SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE SUN INTO MON. WILL LIKELY SEE ANTHR ROUND OF SCA`S
WITH THIS SYSTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...AJZ/DAP
MARINE...MPR






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290034
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
734 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC TONIGHT. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE THURSDAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~1024 MB HI PRES CENTERED NR THE OH/WV
BORDER. ALOFT...A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED UPR-LEVEL TROF IS PUSHING OFF
THE ERN SEABOARD WITH RIDGING OVER THE MIDWEST STATES. THE SFC HI
SLIDES E INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TNGT...ALLOWING FOR THE CLEAR SKIES
TO CONTINUE. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 10-20 MPH THIS AFTN/EVENG WILL
DIMINISH OVRNGT SO WIND CHILLS WILL NOT BE AS LO AS LAST NIGHT
DESPITE COLDER TEMPS. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPR 20S TO LWR
30S WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE UPR TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDS WITH CONTINUED BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SLY FLOW RETURNS THU AFTN AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE REGION THU NIGHT. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS
THRU THE DAY WITH HI TEMPS RANGING FM THE LWR 40S N TO UPR 40S S.
MAINTAINED A LO CHANCE FOR RA (20-30% POPS) LATE THU AFTN FOR
AREAS N AND W OF RIC...CONTINUING TO AREAS N OF I-64 THU NIGHT AS
THE FRNT MOVES THRU. DESPITE DECENT FORCING...MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING HENCE THE LO POPS. PTYPE IS RA THU AFTN/EVENG
TRANSITIONING TO POTENTIALLY SOME IP/SN MIXED IN OVRNGT. NO BIG
IMPACTS ANTICIPATED WITH VERY LITTLE QPF EXPECTED. HI PRES THEN
SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W FRI LEADING TO DRY CONDS...DECREASING
CLOUDS...AND HI TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S. CONTINUED DRY WX
INTO SAT UNDER A SUNNY-MSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TIMING DIFFERENCES ALONG WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT 12Z MODEL CHANGES
MAKES THIS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST SUN INTO MON. GFS MUCH FASTER
IN BRINGING PCPN ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC RGN SUNDAY THAN BOTH THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN. THE QUICKER GFS SOLN WOULD LEAD TO P-TYPE ISSUES
ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS SUNDAY WHILE THE SLOWER SOLNS WUD MAINLY BE
RAIN (OR A RAIN WET SNOW MIX ACROSS THE NORTH) IN THE AFTRN.
CONVERSELY...THE GFS IS QUICKER TO END PCPN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE SLOWER SOLNS KEEP PCPN GOING FOR THE BETTER PART OF MON WITH
COLDER AIR OOZING SOUTH.

WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...TRIED TO BLEND THE FORECAST AS MUCH AS PSBL
KNOWING THAT LATER MODEL RUNS SHOULD SHED BETTER LIGHT ON THE SYSTM.
DRY AND COLD SAT NIGHT WITH INCRG CLDNS. LOWS IN THE 20S XCPT L30S
SERN CSTL AREAS. KEPT A BIT OF FCST CONTINUITY AND BROUGHT LOW CHC
POPS ACROSS WRN CNTYS SUNDAY MORNING. THICKNESSES SUGGEST SOME SLEET
PSBL AT THE START ACROSS NWRN MOST CNTYS WITH RAIN OVRSPRDG THE FA
SUNDAY AFTRN AS THE LOW PRS TRACKS ACROSS NRN VA. HIGHS IN THE 40S
AS THE COLD AIR LURKS JUST NORTH OF THE FA. LIKELY RAIN SUNDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE FA...BUT LWRD TO CHC POPS AFTR MIDNIGHT. KEPT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS LATE AS THE PCPN ENDS. ANY P TYPE
ISSUES WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH CAN
COME SOUTH BEFORE PCPN ENDS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO NR 40
ACROSS NC NE CNTYS NR THE ALBEMARLE SND.

SPLIT MONDAYS FCST UP INTO 2 SEGMENTS AS WELL. CHC RAIN ALONG AND
EAST OF I95 IN THE MORNING...DRYING IT OUT IN THE AFTRN AS THE
TRAILING FRNT CLRS THE COAST. COULD EVEN SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
THE LWR MD ERN SHORE ERLY MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE U30S N TO M-U40S S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT THRU TUES NIGHT.
LOWS MON NITE UTEENS TO U20S. HIGHS TUE IN THE 30S. LOWS TUE NIGHT
IN THE 20S TO NR 30.

YET ANTHR MOIST SRN STREAM SYSTM PROGGED TO COME OUT OF THE GULF
COAST STATES AND MOVE NE ALONG THE SERN COAST WED. THIS SYTM BEARS
WATCHING AS THE COLD AIR MAY BE HARDER TO DISLODGE. WENT WITH CHC
POPS (LIQUID) FOR NOW WITH HIGHS 40-45.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW THIS
EVENING UNDER CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT RESULTING IN A CLEAR SKY AND CALM TO VERY LIGHT WIND. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NW. THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN
HIGH CLOUDS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA ALONG AND N OF A RIC-SBY LINE...AND PERHAPS
PCPN ENDING AS A MIX OF -RASN AT SBY. A GUSTY NW WIND IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. THAT AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH A MORE MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
CRNT SCA`S CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS SCNDRY CAA SURGE SEEN IN THE
DATA THIS EVENING. SEAS STILL AOA 5 FT...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY SUBSIDE
AFTR MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE W.

ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF "SUB SCA" CNDTNS XPCTD THU BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTM APPRCHS FROM THE WEST. WINDS QUICKLY BECOME SOUTH THU AS HIGH
PRS MOVES OFF THE COAST...THEN SW AS A WRM FRNT BRIEFLY LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A STRNG CDFRNT ERLY FRI MORNING. WILL
LIKELY SEE SCA`S FOR THE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRNT.

CTRNG CAA PROGGED BEHIND THE CD FRNT FRI INTO SAT. WNDS BECOME NW
AND INCRS INTO THE GALE RANGE. DATA SUGGESTS GUSTS BTWN 40-45 KTS
ACROSS THE CSTL WTRS (HIGHEST NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISL) WITH 35 KTS
GUSTS IN THE CHES BAY. GIVEN TMPS FALLING BLO 30 DEGREES...FREEZING
SPRAY REMAINS IN FORECAST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZING SPRAY
ADVSRY ACROSS NRN CSTL WTRS WHERE AIR TMPS IN THE L20S ARE XPCTD.
SEAS/WAVES QUICKLY INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE GUSTY WINDS. SEAS AVG
7-10 FT WITH WAVES 4-5 FT DURING THIS PERIOD.

CNDTNS BEGIN TO IMPROVE SAT NIGHT AS THE CANADIAN HIGH TRACKS OVR
THE RGN. NXT SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE SUN INTO MON. WILL LIKELY SEE ANTHR ROUND OF SCA`S
WITH THIS SYSTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...AJZ/DAP
MARINE...MPR







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290034
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
734 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC TONIGHT. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE THURSDAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~1024 MB HI PRES CENTERED NR THE OH/WV
BORDER. ALOFT...A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED UPR-LEVEL TROF IS PUSHING OFF
THE ERN SEABOARD WITH RIDGING OVER THE MIDWEST STATES. THE SFC HI
SLIDES E INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TNGT...ALLOWING FOR THE CLEAR SKIES
TO CONTINUE. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 10-20 MPH THIS AFTN/EVENG WILL
DIMINISH OVRNGT SO WIND CHILLS WILL NOT BE AS LO AS LAST NIGHT
DESPITE COLDER TEMPS. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPR 20S TO LWR
30S WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE UPR TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDS WITH CONTINUED BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SLY FLOW RETURNS THU AFTN AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE REGION THU NIGHT. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS
THRU THE DAY WITH HI TEMPS RANGING FM THE LWR 40S N TO UPR 40S S.
MAINTAINED A LO CHANCE FOR RA (20-30% POPS) LATE THU AFTN FOR
AREAS N AND W OF RIC...CONTINUING TO AREAS N OF I-64 THU NIGHT AS
THE FRNT MOVES THRU. DESPITE DECENT FORCING...MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING HENCE THE LO POPS. PTYPE IS RA THU AFTN/EVENG
TRANSITIONING TO POTENTIALLY SOME IP/SN MIXED IN OVRNGT. NO BIG
IMPACTS ANTICIPATED WITH VERY LITTLE QPF EXPECTED. HI PRES THEN
SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W FRI LEADING TO DRY CONDS...DECREASING
CLOUDS...AND HI TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S. CONTINUED DRY WX
INTO SAT UNDER A SUNNY-MSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TIMING DIFFERENCES ALONG WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT 12Z MODEL CHANGES
MAKES THIS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST SUN INTO MON. GFS MUCH FASTER
IN BRINGING PCPN ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC RGN SUNDAY THAN BOTH THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN. THE QUICKER GFS SOLN WOULD LEAD TO P-TYPE ISSUES
ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS SUNDAY WHILE THE SLOWER SOLNS WUD MAINLY BE
RAIN (OR A RAIN WET SNOW MIX ACROSS THE NORTH) IN THE AFTRN.
CONVERSELY...THE GFS IS QUICKER TO END PCPN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE SLOWER SOLNS KEEP PCPN GOING FOR THE BETTER PART OF MON WITH
COLDER AIR OOZING SOUTH.

WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...TRIED TO BLEND THE FORECAST AS MUCH AS PSBL
KNOWING THAT LATER MODEL RUNS SHOULD SHED BETTER LIGHT ON THE SYSTM.
DRY AND COLD SAT NIGHT WITH INCRG CLDNS. LOWS IN THE 20S XCPT L30S
SERN CSTL AREAS. KEPT A BIT OF FCST CONTINUITY AND BROUGHT LOW CHC
POPS ACROSS WRN CNTYS SUNDAY MORNING. THICKNESSES SUGGEST SOME SLEET
PSBL AT THE START ACROSS NWRN MOST CNTYS WITH RAIN OVRSPRDG THE FA
SUNDAY AFTRN AS THE LOW PRS TRACKS ACROSS NRN VA. HIGHS IN THE 40S
AS THE COLD AIR LURKS JUST NORTH OF THE FA. LIKELY RAIN SUNDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE FA...BUT LWRD TO CHC POPS AFTR MIDNIGHT. KEPT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS LATE AS THE PCPN ENDS. ANY P TYPE
ISSUES WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH CAN
COME SOUTH BEFORE PCPN ENDS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO NR 40
ACROSS NC NE CNTYS NR THE ALBEMARLE SND.

SPLIT MONDAYS FCST UP INTO 2 SEGMENTS AS WELL. CHC RAIN ALONG AND
EAST OF I95 IN THE MORNING...DRYING IT OUT IN THE AFTRN AS THE
TRAILING FRNT CLRS THE COAST. COULD EVEN SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
THE LWR MD ERN SHORE ERLY MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE U30S N TO M-U40S S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT THRU TUES NIGHT.
LOWS MON NITE UTEENS TO U20S. HIGHS TUE IN THE 30S. LOWS TUE NIGHT
IN THE 20S TO NR 30.

YET ANTHR MOIST SRN STREAM SYSTM PROGGED TO COME OUT OF THE GULF
COAST STATES AND MOVE NE ALONG THE SERN COAST WED. THIS SYTM BEARS
WATCHING AS THE COLD AIR MAY BE HARDER TO DISLODGE. WENT WITH CHC
POPS (LIQUID) FOR NOW WITH HIGHS 40-45.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW THIS
EVENING UNDER CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT RESULTING IN A CLEAR SKY AND CALM TO VERY LIGHT WIND. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NW. THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN
HIGH CLOUDS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA ALONG AND N OF A RIC-SBY LINE...AND PERHAPS
PCPN ENDING AS A MIX OF -RASN AT SBY. A GUSTY NW WIND IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. THAT AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH A MORE MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
CRNT SCA`S CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS SCNDRY CAA SURGE SEEN IN THE
DATA THIS EVENING. SEAS STILL AOA 5 FT...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY SUBSIDE
AFTR MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE W.

ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF "SUB SCA" CNDTNS XPCTD THU BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTM APPRCHS FROM THE WEST. WINDS QUICKLY BECOME SOUTH THU AS HIGH
PRS MOVES OFF THE COAST...THEN SW AS A WRM FRNT BRIEFLY LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A STRNG CDFRNT ERLY FRI MORNING. WILL
LIKELY SEE SCA`S FOR THE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRNT.

CTRNG CAA PROGGED BEHIND THE CD FRNT FRI INTO SAT. WNDS BECOME NW
AND INCRS INTO THE GALE RANGE. DATA SUGGESTS GUSTS BTWN 40-45 KTS
ACROSS THE CSTL WTRS (HIGHEST NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISL) WITH 35 KTS
GUSTS IN THE CHES BAY. GIVEN TMPS FALLING BLO 30 DEGREES...FREEZING
SPRAY REMAINS IN FORECAST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZING SPRAY
ADVSRY ACROSS NRN CSTL WTRS WHERE AIR TMPS IN THE L20S ARE XPCTD.
SEAS/WAVES QUICKLY INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE GUSTY WINDS. SEAS AVG
7-10 FT WITH WAVES 4-5 FT DURING THIS PERIOD.

CNDTNS BEGIN TO IMPROVE SAT NIGHT AS THE CANADIAN HIGH TRACKS OVR
THE RGN. NXT SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE SUN INTO MON. WILL LIKELY SEE ANTHR ROUND OF SCA`S
WITH THIS SYSTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...AJZ/DAP
MARINE...MPR







000
FXUS61 KPHI 282318
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
618 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND
OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT AND REFORM NEAR CAPE COD ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
CAUSE AN ARCTIC FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND OVER THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT BEFORE STARTING TO
SHIFT SOUTH BY THURSDAY MORNING.

THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY WILL RELAX.
OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION.
IN ADDITION, SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR AND WE SHOULD RADIATE WELL
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. SNOW COVER DID DIMINISH IN THE BRIGHT SUN
TODAY BUT PARTS OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SNOW ON THE
GROUND OVERNIGHT, MAINLY THROUGH THE LEHIGH VALLEY, SOUTHERN
POCONOS, AND NEIGHBORING AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV MOS BUT WERE EDGED DOWN
A BIT, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE THERE IS STILL SNOW ON THE
GROUND. EXPECT SINGLE DIGITS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF PHILADELPHIA
WITH TEENS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST ON THURSDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.

CLEAR SKIES WILL START TO CLOUD UP AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY BUT WE
MIGHT START TO SEE OUR FIRST FLAKES FALL DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS SOUTHERN
DELAWARE AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES THE POLAR VORTEX OVER HUDSON`S
BAY... A RIDGE INVOF THE WEST COAST OF NOAM AND A SOUTHERN STREAM
CUT OFF LOW NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA...THAT MAY FINALLY EJECTED
NORTHEASTWARD BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THESE FEATURES WILL
GUIDE S/WV ENERGY THRU A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EAST CONUS. THIS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...LEADING TO THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM INVOF CAPE COD ON FRI...AND WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY S/WV RIDGING FOR A BRIEF TIME OVER THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A PRIMARY S/WV ENTERS THE NORTHERN INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL OTHER PIECES OF
ENERGY EXTENDING FROM HUDSON`S BAY TO THE GULF COAST. THE DEGREE
OF PHASING THESE FEATURES UNDERGO AS THEY TRAVERSE THE EAST CONUS
TROUGH...AND REDEVELOPMENT INVOF THE EAST COAST...PRESENTS THE
GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST. AT THE D+5 TIME
FRAME...IT/S TO EARLY TO LOCK ONTO ANY SPECIFICS...BUT THE NAO IS
PROJECTED TO GO FROM NEGATIVE TO POSITIVE WHICH IS TYPICALLY
FAVORABLE FOR EAST COAST CYCLOGENISIS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING,
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SKIES START TO CLOUD UP
DURING THE MORNING IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM.
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST
SOUTHEAST...BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY BY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND REMAIN LESS THAN 10
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY MORNING...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE
IN SNOW SQUALLS. NW WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 KT.

FRI NIGHT...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

SATURDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IN THE SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LOWER DELAWARE BAY HAS EXPIRED. THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE OCEAN IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 1 AM.

WINDS ARE DIMINISHING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS ACROSS OUR
AREA. SEAS ARE ALSO STARTING TO DECREASE. EXPECT BOTH WINDS AND
SEAS TO FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON OUR OCEAN
WATERS LATER TONIGHT. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH TONIGHT.

SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY WITH LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET ON THE OCEAN.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS.

FRI/FRI NIGHT...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS INCREASINGLY LIKELY.

SAT...GALE CONDITIONS DIMINISHING BACK TO SCA CONDITIONS.

SUN...SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

MON...WINDS AND SEAS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...FRANCK/O`HARA
AVIATION...FRANCK/MEOLA
MARINE...FRANCK/MEOLA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 282318
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
618 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND
OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT AND REFORM NEAR CAPE COD ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
CAUSE AN ARCTIC FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND OVER THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT BEFORE STARTING TO
SHIFT SOUTH BY THURSDAY MORNING.

THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY WILL RELAX.
OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION.
IN ADDITION, SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR AND WE SHOULD RADIATE WELL
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. SNOW COVER DID DIMINISH IN THE BRIGHT SUN
TODAY BUT PARTS OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SNOW ON THE
GROUND OVERNIGHT, MAINLY THROUGH THE LEHIGH VALLEY, SOUTHERN
POCONOS, AND NEIGHBORING AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV MOS BUT WERE EDGED DOWN
A BIT, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE THERE IS STILL SNOW ON THE
GROUND. EXPECT SINGLE DIGITS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF PHILADELPHIA
WITH TEENS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST ON THURSDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.

CLEAR SKIES WILL START TO CLOUD UP AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY BUT WE
MIGHT START TO SEE OUR FIRST FLAKES FALL DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS SOUTHERN
DELAWARE AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES THE POLAR VORTEX OVER HUDSON`S
BAY... A RIDGE INVOF THE WEST COAST OF NOAM AND A SOUTHERN STREAM
CUT OFF LOW NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA...THAT MAY FINALLY EJECTED
NORTHEASTWARD BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THESE FEATURES WILL
GUIDE S/WV ENERGY THRU A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EAST CONUS. THIS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...LEADING TO THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM INVOF CAPE COD ON FRI...AND WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY S/WV RIDGING FOR A BRIEF TIME OVER THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A PRIMARY S/WV ENTERS THE NORTHERN INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL OTHER PIECES OF
ENERGY EXTENDING FROM HUDSON`S BAY TO THE GULF COAST. THE DEGREE
OF PHASING THESE FEATURES UNDERGO AS THEY TRAVERSE THE EAST CONUS
TROUGH...AND REDEVELOPMENT INVOF THE EAST COAST...PRESENTS THE
GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST. AT THE D+5 TIME
FRAME...IT/S TO EARLY TO LOCK ONTO ANY SPECIFICS...BUT THE NAO IS
PROJECTED TO GO FROM NEGATIVE TO POSITIVE WHICH IS TYPICALLY
FAVORABLE FOR EAST COAST CYCLOGENISIS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING,
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SKIES START TO CLOUD UP
DURING THE MORNING IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM.
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST
SOUTHEAST...BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY BY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND REMAIN LESS THAN 10
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY MORNING...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE
IN SNOW SQUALLS. NW WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 KT.

FRI NIGHT...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

SATURDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IN THE SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LOWER DELAWARE BAY HAS EXPIRED. THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE OCEAN IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 1 AM.

WINDS ARE DIMINISHING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS ACROSS OUR
AREA. SEAS ARE ALSO STARTING TO DECREASE. EXPECT BOTH WINDS AND
SEAS TO FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON OUR OCEAN
WATERS LATER TONIGHT. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH TONIGHT.

SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY WITH LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET ON THE OCEAN.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS.

FRI/FRI NIGHT...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS INCREASINGLY LIKELY.

SAT...GALE CONDITIONS DIMINISHING BACK TO SCA CONDITIONS.

SUN...SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

MON...WINDS AND SEAS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...FRANCK/O`HARA
AVIATION...FRANCK/MEOLA
MARINE...FRANCK/MEOLA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 282051
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
351 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND OFFSHORE
ON THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
NIGHT AND REFORM NEAR CAPE COD ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE AN ARCTIC
FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT BEFORE STARTING TO
SHIFT SOUTH BY THURSDAY MORNING.

THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY WILL RELAX AND
WE WILL SEE THE WINDS LOSE THEIR GUSTINESS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE
REGION. IN ADDITION, SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR AND WE SHOULD RADIATE
WELL ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. SNOW COVER DID DIMINISH IN THE BRIGHT SUN
TODAY BUT PARTS OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SNOW ON THE
GROUND OVERNIGHT, MAINLY THROUGH THE LEHIGH VALLEY, SOUTHERN
POCONOS, AND NEIGHBORING AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV MOS BUT WERE EDGED DOWN A
BIT, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE THERE IS STILL SNOW ON THE GROUND.
EXPECT SINGLE DIGITS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF PHILADELPHIA WITH
TEENS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST ON THURSDAY AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.

CLEAR SKIES WILL START TO CLOUD UP AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY BUT WE MIGHT
START TO SEE OUR FIRST FLAKES FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS SOUTHERN
DELAWARE AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES THE POLAR VORTEX OVER HUDSON`S BAY...
A RIDGE INVOF THE WEST COAST OF NOAM AND A SOUTHERN STREAM CUT OFF
LOW NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA...THAT MAY FINALLY EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THESE FEATURES WILL GUIDE S/WV ENERGY
THRU A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EAST CONUS. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...LEADING TO THE REDEVELOPMENT OF A CLIPPER
SYSTEM INVOF CAPE COD ON FRI...AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY S/WV RIDGING
FOR A BRIEF TIME OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A PRIMARY
S/WV ENTERS THE NORTHERN INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED
BY SEVERAL OTHER PIECES OF ENERGY EXTENDING FROM HUDSON`S BAY TO
THE GULF COAST. THE DEGREE OF PHASING THESE FEATURES UNDERGO AS THEY
TRAVERSE THE EAST CONUS TROUGH...AND REDEVELOPMENT INVOF THE EAST
COAST...PRESENTS THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST. AT THE
D+5 TIME FRAME...IT/S TO EARLY TO LOCK ONTO ANY SPECIFICS...BUT THE
NAO IS PROJECTED TO GO FROM NEGATIVE TO POSITIVE WHICH IS TYPICALLY
FAVORABLE FOR EAST COAST CYCLOGENISIS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN START TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SKIES START TO CLOUD UP DURING
THE MORNING IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM. CEILINGS
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST...BECOMING
MORE SOUTHERLY BY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY MORNING...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IN SNOW SQUALLS. NW WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 KT.

FRI NIGHT...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

SATURDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IN THE SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6PM TONIGHT ON THE
LOWER DELAWARE BAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE OCEAN IS NOW
IN EFFECT THROUGH 1 AM. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE UPPER
DELAWARE BAY HAS BEEN CANCELED AS WINDS HAVE FALLEN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

WINDS ARE STARTING TO DIMINISH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS
ACROSS OUR AREA. SEAS ARE ALSO STARTING TO DECREASE. EXPECT BOTH
WINDS AND SEAS TO FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA LATER
TONIGHT. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.

SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY WITH LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET ON THE OCEAN.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS.
FRI/FRI NIGHT...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS INCREASINGLY LIKELY.
SAT...GALE CONDITIONS DIMINISHING BACK TO SCA CONDITIONS.
SUN...SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MON...WINDS AND SEAS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/MEOLA
MARINE...FRANCK/MEOLA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 282051
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
351 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND OFFSHORE
ON THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
NIGHT AND REFORM NEAR CAPE COD ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE AN ARCTIC
FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT BEFORE STARTING TO
SHIFT SOUTH BY THURSDAY MORNING.

THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY WILL RELAX AND
WE WILL SEE THE WINDS LOSE THEIR GUSTINESS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE
REGION. IN ADDITION, SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR AND WE SHOULD RADIATE
WELL ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. SNOW COVER DID DIMINISH IN THE BRIGHT SUN
TODAY BUT PARTS OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SNOW ON THE
GROUND OVERNIGHT, MAINLY THROUGH THE LEHIGH VALLEY, SOUTHERN
POCONOS, AND NEIGHBORING AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV MOS BUT WERE EDGED DOWN A
BIT, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE THERE IS STILL SNOW ON THE GROUND.
EXPECT SINGLE DIGITS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF PHILADELPHIA WITH
TEENS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST ON THURSDAY AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.

CLEAR SKIES WILL START TO CLOUD UP AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY BUT WE MIGHT
START TO SEE OUR FIRST FLAKES FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS SOUTHERN
DELAWARE AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES THE POLAR VORTEX OVER HUDSON`S BAY...
A RIDGE INVOF THE WEST COAST OF NOAM AND A SOUTHERN STREAM CUT OFF
LOW NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA...THAT MAY FINALLY EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THESE FEATURES WILL GUIDE S/WV ENERGY
THRU A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EAST CONUS. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...LEADING TO THE REDEVELOPMENT OF A CLIPPER
SYSTEM INVOF CAPE COD ON FRI...AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY S/WV RIDGING
FOR A BRIEF TIME OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A PRIMARY
S/WV ENTERS THE NORTHERN INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED
BY SEVERAL OTHER PIECES OF ENERGY EXTENDING FROM HUDSON`S BAY TO
THE GULF COAST. THE DEGREE OF PHASING THESE FEATURES UNDERGO AS THEY
TRAVERSE THE EAST CONUS TROUGH...AND REDEVELOPMENT INVOF THE EAST
COAST...PRESENTS THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST. AT THE
D+5 TIME FRAME...IT/S TO EARLY TO LOCK ONTO ANY SPECIFICS...BUT THE
NAO IS PROJECTED TO GO FROM NEGATIVE TO POSITIVE WHICH IS TYPICALLY
FAVORABLE FOR EAST COAST CYCLOGENISIS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN START TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SKIES START TO CLOUD UP DURING
THE MORNING IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM. CEILINGS
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST...BECOMING
MORE SOUTHERLY BY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY MORNING...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IN SNOW SQUALLS. NW WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 KT.

FRI NIGHT...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

SATURDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IN THE SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6PM TONIGHT ON THE
LOWER DELAWARE BAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE OCEAN IS NOW
IN EFFECT THROUGH 1 AM. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE UPPER
DELAWARE BAY HAS BEEN CANCELED AS WINDS HAVE FALLEN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

WINDS ARE STARTING TO DIMINISH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS
ACROSS OUR AREA. SEAS ARE ALSO STARTING TO DECREASE. EXPECT BOTH
WINDS AND SEAS TO FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA LATER
TONIGHT. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.

SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY WITH LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET ON THE OCEAN.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS.
FRI/FRI NIGHT...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS INCREASINGLY LIKELY.
SAT...GALE CONDITIONS DIMINISHING BACK TO SCA CONDITIONS.
SUN...SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MON...WINDS AND SEAS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/MEOLA
MARINE...FRANCK/MEOLA






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 282051
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
351 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC TONIGHT. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE THURSDAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~1024 MB HI PRES CENTERED NR THE OH/WV
BORDER. ALOFT...A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED UPR-LEVEL TROF IS PUSHING OFF
THE ERN SEABOARD WITH RIDGING OVER THE MIDWEST STATES. THE SFC HI
SLIDES E INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TNGT...ALLOWING FOR THE CLEAR SKIES
TO CONTINUE. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 10-20 MPH THIS AFTN/EVENG WILL
DIMINISH OVRNGT SO WIND CHILLS WILL NOT BE AS LO AS LAST NIGHT
DESPITE COLDER TEMPS. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPR 20S TO LWR
30S WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE UPR TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDS WITH CONTINUED BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SLY FLOW RETURNS THU AFTN AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE REGION THU NIGHT. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS
THRU THE DAY WITH HI TEMPS RANGING FM THE LWR 40S N TO UPR 40S S.
MAINTAINED A LO CHANCE FOR RA (20-30% POPS) LATE THU AFTN FOR
AREAS N AND W OF RIC...CONTINUING TO AREAS N OF I-64 THU NIGHT AS
THE FRNT MOVES THRU. DESPITE DECENT FORCING...MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING HENCE THE LO POPS. PTYPE IS RA THU AFTN/EVENG
TRANSITIONING TO POTENTIALLY SOME IP/SN MIXED IN OVRNGT. NO BIG
IMPACTS ANTICIPATED WITH VERY LITTLE QPF EXPECTED. HI PRES THEN
SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W FRI LEADING TO DRY CONDS...DECREASING
CLOUDS...AND HI TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S. CONTINUED DRY WX
INTO SAT UNDER A SUNNY-MSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TIMING DIFFERENCES ALONG WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT 12Z MODEL CHANGES
MAKES THIS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST SUN INTO MON. GFS MUCH FASTER
IN BRINGING PCPN ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC RGN SUNDAY THAN BOTH THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN. THE QUICKER GFS SOLN WOULD LEAD TO P-TYPE ISSUES
ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS SUNDAY WHILE THE SLOWER SOLNS WUD MAINLY BE
RAIN (OR A RAIN WET SNOW MIX ACROSS THE NORTH) IN THE AFTRN.
CONVERSELY...THE GFS IS QUICKER TO END PCPN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE SLOWER SOLNS KEEP PCPN GOING FOR THE BETTER PART OF MON WITH
COLDER AIR OOZING SOUTH.

WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...TRIED TO BLEND THE FORECAST AS MUCH AS PSBL
KNOWING THAT LATER MODEL RUNS SHOULD SHED BETTER LIGHT ON THE SYSTM.
DRY AND COLD SAT NIGHT WITH INCRG CLDNS. LOWS IN THE 20S XCPT L30S
SERN CSTL AREAS. KEPT A BIT OF FCST CONTINUITY AND BROUGHT LOW CHC
POPS ACROSS WRN CNTYS SUNDAY MORNING. THICKNESSES SUGGEST SOME SLEET
PSBL AT THE START ACROSS NWRN MOST CNTYS WITH RAIN OVRSPRDG THE FA
SUNDAY AFTRN AS THE LOW PRS TRACKS ACROSS NRN VA. HIGHS IN THE 40S
AS THE COLD AIR LURKS JUST NORTH OF THE FA. LIKELY RAIN SUNDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE FA...BUT LWRD TO CHC POPS AFTR MIDNIGHT. KEPT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS LATE AS THE PCPN ENDS. ANY P TYPE
ISSUES WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH CAN
COME SOUTH BEFORE PCPN ENDS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO NR 40
ACROSS NC NE CNTYS NR THE ALBEMARLE SND.

SPLIT MONDAYS FCST UP INTO 2 SEGMENTS AS WELL. CHC RAIN ALONG AND
EAST OF I95 IN THE MORNING...DRYING IT OUT IN THE AFTRN AS THE
TRAILING FRNT CLRS THE COAST. COULD EVEN SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
THE LWR MD ERN SHORE ERLY MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE U30S N TO M-U40S S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT THRU TUES NIGHT.
LOWS MON NITE UTEENS TO U20S. HIGHS TUE IN THE 30S. LOWS TUE NIGHT
IN THE 20S TO NR 30.

YET ANTHR MOIST SRN STREAM SYSTM PROGGED TO COME OUT OF THE GULF
COAST STATES AND MOVE NE ALONG THE SERN COAST WED. THIS SYTM BEARS
WATCHING AS THE COLD AIR MAY BE HARDER TO DISLODGE. WENT WITH CHC
POPS (LIQUID) FOR NOW WITH HIGHS 40-45.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE NW THIS AFTERNOON
UNDER A CLEAR SKY. A NW WIND IS AVERAGING 10-15KT...WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20KT CLOSER TO THE COAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
THE REGION TONIGHT RESULTING IN A CLEAR SKY AND CALM TO VERY LIGHT
WIND. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ALONG WITH
AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA ALONG AND N OF A
RIC-SBY LINE...AND PERHAPS PCPN ENDING AS A MIX OF -RASN AT SBY.
A GUSTY NW WIND IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. THAT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH A MORE MOIST FRONTAL
SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
CRNT SCA`S CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS SCNDRY CAA SURGE SEEN IN THE
DATA THIS EVENING. SEAS STILL AOA 5 FT...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY SUBSIDE
AFTR MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE W.

ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF "SUB SCA" CNDTNS XPCTD THU BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTM APPRCHS FROM THE WEST. WINDS QUICKLY BECOME SOUTH THU AS HIGH
PRS MOVES OFF THE COAST...THEN SW AS A WRM FRNT BRIEFLY LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A STRNG CDFRNT ERLY FRI MORNING. WILL
LIKELY SEE SCA`S FOR THE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRNT.

CTRNG CAA PROGGED BEHIND THE CD FRNT FRI INTO SAT. WNDS BECOME NW
AND INCRS INTO THE GALE RANGE. DATA SUGGESTS GUSTS BTWN 40-45 KTS
ACROSS THE CSTL WTRS (HIGHEST NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISL) WITH 35 KTS
GUSTS IN THE CHES BAY. GIVEN TMPS FALLING BLO 30 DEGREES...FREEZING
SPRAY REMAINS IN FORECAST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZING SPRAY
ADVSRY ACROSS NRN CSTL WTRS WHERE AIR TMPS IN THE L20S ARE XPCTD.
SEAS/WAVES QUICKLY INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE GUSTY WINDS. SEAS AVG
7-10 FT WITH WAVES 4-5 FT DURING THIS PERIOD.

CNDTNS BEGIN TO IMPROVE SAT NIGHT AS THE CANADIAN HIGH TRACKS OVR
THE RGN. NXT SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE SUN INTO MON. WILL LIKELY SEE ANTHR ROUND OF SCA`S
WITH THIS SYSTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...MPR







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 282051
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
351 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC TONIGHT. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE THURSDAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~1024 MB HI PRES CENTERED NR THE OH/WV
BORDER. ALOFT...A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED UPR-LEVEL TROF IS PUSHING OFF
THE ERN SEABOARD WITH RIDGING OVER THE MIDWEST STATES. THE SFC HI
SLIDES E INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TNGT...ALLOWING FOR THE CLEAR SKIES
TO CONTINUE. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 10-20 MPH THIS AFTN/EVENG WILL
DIMINISH OVRNGT SO WIND CHILLS WILL NOT BE AS LO AS LAST NIGHT
DESPITE COLDER TEMPS. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPR 20S TO LWR
30S WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE UPR TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDS WITH CONTINUED BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SLY FLOW RETURNS THU AFTN AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE REGION THU NIGHT. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS
THRU THE DAY WITH HI TEMPS RANGING FM THE LWR 40S N TO UPR 40S S.
MAINTAINED A LO CHANCE FOR RA (20-30% POPS) LATE THU AFTN FOR
AREAS N AND W OF RIC...CONTINUING TO AREAS N OF I-64 THU NIGHT AS
THE FRNT MOVES THRU. DESPITE DECENT FORCING...MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING HENCE THE LO POPS. PTYPE IS RA THU AFTN/EVENG
TRANSITIONING TO POTENTIALLY SOME IP/SN MIXED IN OVRNGT. NO BIG
IMPACTS ANTICIPATED WITH VERY LITTLE QPF EXPECTED. HI PRES THEN
SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W FRI LEADING TO DRY CONDS...DECREASING
CLOUDS...AND HI TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S. CONTINUED DRY WX
INTO SAT UNDER A SUNNY-MSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TIMING DIFFERENCES ALONG WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT 12Z MODEL CHANGES
MAKES THIS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST SUN INTO MON. GFS MUCH FASTER
IN BRINGING PCPN ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC RGN SUNDAY THAN BOTH THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN. THE QUICKER GFS SOLN WOULD LEAD TO P-TYPE ISSUES
ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS SUNDAY WHILE THE SLOWER SOLNS WUD MAINLY BE
RAIN (OR A RAIN WET SNOW MIX ACROSS THE NORTH) IN THE AFTRN.
CONVERSELY...THE GFS IS QUICKER TO END PCPN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE SLOWER SOLNS KEEP PCPN GOING FOR THE BETTER PART OF MON WITH
COLDER AIR OOZING SOUTH.

WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...TRIED TO BLEND THE FORECAST AS MUCH AS PSBL
KNOWING THAT LATER MODEL RUNS SHOULD SHED BETTER LIGHT ON THE SYSTM.
DRY AND COLD SAT NIGHT WITH INCRG CLDNS. LOWS IN THE 20S XCPT L30S
SERN CSTL AREAS. KEPT A BIT OF FCST CONTINUITY AND BROUGHT LOW CHC
POPS ACROSS WRN CNTYS SUNDAY MORNING. THICKNESSES SUGGEST SOME SLEET
PSBL AT THE START ACROSS NWRN MOST CNTYS WITH RAIN OVRSPRDG THE FA
SUNDAY AFTRN AS THE LOW PRS TRACKS ACROSS NRN VA. HIGHS IN THE 40S
AS THE COLD AIR LURKS JUST NORTH OF THE FA. LIKELY RAIN SUNDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE FA...BUT LWRD TO CHC POPS AFTR MIDNIGHT. KEPT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS LATE AS THE PCPN ENDS. ANY P TYPE
ISSUES WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH CAN
COME SOUTH BEFORE PCPN ENDS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO NR 40
ACROSS NC NE CNTYS NR THE ALBEMARLE SND.

SPLIT MONDAYS FCST UP INTO 2 SEGMENTS AS WELL. CHC RAIN ALONG AND
EAST OF I95 IN THE MORNING...DRYING IT OUT IN THE AFTRN AS THE
TRAILING FRNT CLRS THE COAST. COULD EVEN SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
THE LWR MD ERN SHORE ERLY MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE U30S N TO M-U40S S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT THRU TUES NIGHT.
LOWS MON NITE UTEENS TO U20S. HIGHS TUE IN THE 30S. LOWS TUE NIGHT
IN THE 20S TO NR 30.

YET ANTHR MOIST SRN STREAM SYSTM PROGGED TO COME OUT OF THE GULF
COAST STATES AND MOVE NE ALONG THE SERN COAST WED. THIS SYTM BEARS
WATCHING AS THE COLD AIR MAY BE HARDER TO DISLODGE. WENT WITH CHC
POPS (LIQUID) FOR NOW WITH HIGHS 40-45.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE NW THIS AFTERNOON
UNDER A CLEAR SKY. A NW WIND IS AVERAGING 10-15KT...WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20KT CLOSER TO THE COAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
THE REGION TONIGHT RESULTING IN A CLEAR SKY AND CALM TO VERY LIGHT
WIND. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ALONG WITH
AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA ALONG AND N OF A
RIC-SBY LINE...AND PERHAPS PCPN ENDING AS A MIX OF -RASN AT SBY.
A GUSTY NW WIND IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. THAT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH A MORE MOIST FRONTAL
SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
CRNT SCA`S CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS SCNDRY CAA SURGE SEEN IN THE
DATA THIS EVENING. SEAS STILL AOA 5 FT...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY SUBSIDE
AFTR MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE W.

ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF "SUB SCA" CNDTNS XPCTD THU BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTM APPRCHS FROM THE WEST. WINDS QUICKLY BECOME SOUTH THU AS HIGH
PRS MOVES OFF THE COAST...THEN SW AS A WRM FRNT BRIEFLY LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A STRNG CDFRNT ERLY FRI MORNING. WILL
LIKELY SEE SCA`S FOR THE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRNT.

CTRNG CAA PROGGED BEHIND THE CD FRNT FRI INTO SAT. WNDS BECOME NW
AND INCRS INTO THE GALE RANGE. DATA SUGGESTS GUSTS BTWN 40-45 KTS
ACROSS THE CSTL WTRS (HIGHEST NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISL) WITH 35 KTS
GUSTS IN THE CHES BAY. GIVEN TMPS FALLING BLO 30 DEGREES...FREEZING
SPRAY REMAINS IN FORECAST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZING SPRAY
ADVSRY ACROSS NRN CSTL WTRS WHERE AIR TMPS IN THE L20S ARE XPCTD.
SEAS/WAVES QUICKLY INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE GUSTY WINDS. SEAS AVG
7-10 FT WITH WAVES 4-5 FT DURING THIS PERIOD.

CNDTNS BEGIN TO IMPROVE SAT NIGHT AS THE CANADIAN HIGH TRACKS OVR
THE RGN. NXT SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE SUN INTO MON. WILL LIKELY SEE ANTHR ROUND OF SCA`S
WITH THIS SYSTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...MPR







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 282051
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
351 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC TONIGHT. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE THURSDAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~1024 MB HI PRES CENTERED NR THE OH/WV
BORDER. ALOFT...A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED UPR-LEVEL TROF IS PUSHING OFF
THE ERN SEABOARD WITH RIDGING OVER THE MIDWEST STATES. THE SFC HI
SLIDES E INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TNGT...ALLOWING FOR THE CLEAR SKIES
TO CONTINUE. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 10-20 MPH THIS AFTN/EVENG WILL
DIMINISH OVRNGT SO WIND CHILLS WILL NOT BE AS LO AS LAST NIGHT
DESPITE COLDER TEMPS. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPR 20S TO LWR
30S WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE UPR TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDS WITH CONTINUED BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SLY FLOW RETURNS THU AFTN AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE REGION THU NIGHT. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS
THRU THE DAY WITH HI TEMPS RANGING FM THE LWR 40S N TO UPR 40S S.
MAINTAINED A LO CHANCE FOR RA (20-30% POPS) LATE THU AFTN FOR
AREAS N AND W OF RIC...CONTINUING TO AREAS N OF I-64 THU NIGHT AS
THE FRNT MOVES THRU. DESPITE DECENT FORCING...MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING HENCE THE LO POPS. PTYPE IS RA THU AFTN/EVENG
TRANSITIONING TO POTENTIALLY SOME IP/SN MIXED IN OVRNGT. NO BIG
IMPACTS ANTICIPATED WITH VERY LITTLE QPF EXPECTED. HI PRES THEN
SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W FRI LEADING TO DRY CONDS...DECREASING
CLOUDS...AND HI TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S. CONTINUED DRY WX
INTO SAT UNDER A SUNNY-MSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TIMING DIFFERENCES ALONG WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT 12Z MODEL CHANGES
MAKES THIS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST SUN INTO MON. GFS MUCH FASTER
IN BRINGING PCPN ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC RGN SUNDAY THAN BOTH THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN. THE QUICKER GFS SOLN WOULD LEAD TO P-TYPE ISSUES
ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS SUNDAY WHILE THE SLOWER SOLNS WUD MAINLY BE
RAIN (OR A RAIN WET SNOW MIX ACROSS THE NORTH) IN THE AFTRN.
CONVERSELY...THE GFS IS QUICKER TO END PCPN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE SLOWER SOLNS KEEP PCPN GOING FOR THE BETTER PART OF MON WITH
COLDER AIR OOZING SOUTH.

WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...TRIED TO BLEND THE FORECAST AS MUCH AS PSBL
KNOWING THAT LATER MODEL RUNS SHOULD SHED BETTER LIGHT ON THE SYSTM.
DRY AND COLD SAT NIGHT WITH INCRG CLDNS. LOWS IN THE 20S XCPT L30S
SERN CSTL AREAS. KEPT A BIT OF FCST CONTINUITY AND BROUGHT LOW CHC
POPS ACROSS WRN CNTYS SUNDAY MORNING. THICKNESSES SUGGEST SOME SLEET
PSBL AT THE START ACROSS NWRN MOST CNTYS WITH RAIN OVRSPRDG THE FA
SUNDAY AFTRN AS THE LOW PRS TRACKS ACROSS NRN VA. HIGHS IN THE 40S
AS THE COLD AIR LURKS JUST NORTH OF THE FA. LIKELY RAIN SUNDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE FA...BUT LWRD TO CHC POPS AFTR MIDNIGHT. KEPT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS LATE AS THE PCPN ENDS. ANY P TYPE
ISSUES WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH CAN
COME SOUTH BEFORE PCPN ENDS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO NR 40
ACROSS NC NE CNTYS NR THE ALBEMARLE SND.

SPLIT MONDAYS FCST UP INTO 2 SEGMENTS AS WELL. CHC RAIN ALONG AND
EAST OF I95 IN THE MORNING...DRYING IT OUT IN THE AFTRN AS THE
TRAILING FRNT CLRS THE COAST. COULD EVEN SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
THE LWR MD ERN SHORE ERLY MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE U30S N TO M-U40S S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT THRU TUES NIGHT.
LOWS MON NITE UTEENS TO U20S. HIGHS TUE IN THE 30S. LOWS TUE NIGHT
IN THE 20S TO NR 30.

YET ANTHR MOIST SRN STREAM SYSTM PROGGED TO COME OUT OF THE GULF
COAST STATES AND MOVE NE ALONG THE SERN COAST WED. THIS SYTM BEARS
WATCHING AS THE COLD AIR MAY BE HARDER TO DISLODGE. WENT WITH CHC
POPS (LIQUID) FOR NOW WITH HIGHS 40-45.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE NW THIS AFTERNOON
UNDER A CLEAR SKY. A NW WIND IS AVERAGING 10-15KT...WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20KT CLOSER TO THE COAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
THE REGION TONIGHT RESULTING IN A CLEAR SKY AND CALM TO VERY LIGHT
WIND. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ALONG WITH
AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA ALONG AND N OF A
RIC-SBY LINE...AND PERHAPS PCPN ENDING AS A MIX OF -RASN AT SBY.
A GUSTY NW WIND IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. THAT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH A MORE MOIST FRONTAL
SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
CRNT SCA`S CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS SCNDRY CAA SURGE SEEN IN THE
DATA THIS EVENING. SEAS STILL AOA 5 FT...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY SUBSIDE
AFTR MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE W.

ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF "SUB SCA" CNDTNS XPCTD THU BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTM APPRCHS FROM THE WEST. WINDS QUICKLY BECOME SOUTH THU AS HIGH
PRS MOVES OFF THE COAST...THEN SW AS A WRM FRNT BRIEFLY LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A STRNG CDFRNT ERLY FRI MORNING. WILL
LIKELY SEE SCA`S FOR THE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRNT.

CTRNG CAA PROGGED BEHIND THE CD FRNT FRI INTO SAT. WNDS BECOME NW
AND INCRS INTO THE GALE RANGE. DATA SUGGESTS GUSTS BTWN 40-45 KTS
ACROSS THE CSTL WTRS (HIGHEST NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISL) WITH 35 KTS
GUSTS IN THE CHES BAY. GIVEN TMPS FALLING BLO 30 DEGREES...FREEZING
SPRAY REMAINS IN FORECAST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZING SPRAY
ADVSRY ACROSS NRN CSTL WTRS WHERE AIR TMPS IN THE L20S ARE XPCTD.
SEAS/WAVES QUICKLY INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE GUSTY WINDS. SEAS AVG
7-10 FT WITH WAVES 4-5 FT DURING THIS PERIOD.

CNDTNS BEGIN TO IMPROVE SAT NIGHT AS THE CANADIAN HIGH TRACKS OVR
THE RGN. NXT SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE SUN INTO MON. WILL LIKELY SEE ANTHR ROUND OF SCA`S
WITH THIS SYSTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...MPR







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 282051
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
351 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC TONIGHT. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE THURSDAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~1024 MB HI PRES CENTERED NR THE OH/WV
BORDER. ALOFT...A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED UPR-LEVEL TROF IS PUSHING OFF
THE ERN SEABOARD WITH RIDGING OVER THE MIDWEST STATES. THE SFC HI
SLIDES E INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TNGT...ALLOWING FOR THE CLEAR SKIES
TO CONTINUE. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 10-20 MPH THIS AFTN/EVENG WILL
DIMINISH OVRNGT SO WIND CHILLS WILL NOT BE AS LO AS LAST NIGHT
DESPITE COLDER TEMPS. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPR 20S TO LWR
30S WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE UPR TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDS WITH CONTINUED BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SLY FLOW RETURNS THU AFTN AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE REGION THU NIGHT. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS
THRU THE DAY WITH HI TEMPS RANGING FM THE LWR 40S N TO UPR 40S S.
MAINTAINED A LO CHANCE FOR RA (20-30% POPS) LATE THU AFTN FOR
AREAS N AND W OF RIC...CONTINUING TO AREAS N OF I-64 THU NIGHT AS
THE FRNT MOVES THRU. DESPITE DECENT FORCING...MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING HENCE THE LO POPS. PTYPE IS RA THU AFTN/EVENG
TRANSITIONING TO POTENTIALLY SOME IP/SN MIXED IN OVRNGT. NO BIG
IMPACTS ANTICIPATED WITH VERY LITTLE QPF EXPECTED. HI PRES THEN
SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W FRI LEADING TO DRY CONDS...DECREASING
CLOUDS...AND HI TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S. CONTINUED DRY WX
INTO SAT UNDER A SUNNY-MSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TIMING DIFFERENCES ALONG WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT 12Z MODEL CHANGES
MAKES THIS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST SUN INTO MON. GFS MUCH FASTER
IN BRINGING PCPN ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC RGN SUNDAY THAN BOTH THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN. THE QUICKER GFS SOLN WOULD LEAD TO P-TYPE ISSUES
ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS SUNDAY WHILE THE SLOWER SOLNS WUD MAINLY BE
RAIN (OR A RAIN WET SNOW MIX ACROSS THE NORTH) IN THE AFTRN.
CONVERSELY...THE GFS IS QUICKER TO END PCPN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE SLOWER SOLNS KEEP PCPN GOING FOR THE BETTER PART OF MON WITH
COLDER AIR OOZING SOUTH.

WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...TRIED TO BLEND THE FORECAST AS MUCH AS PSBL
KNOWING THAT LATER MODEL RUNS SHOULD SHED BETTER LIGHT ON THE SYSTM.
DRY AND COLD SAT NIGHT WITH INCRG CLDNS. LOWS IN THE 20S XCPT L30S
SERN CSTL AREAS. KEPT A BIT OF FCST CONTINUITY AND BROUGHT LOW CHC
POPS ACROSS WRN CNTYS SUNDAY MORNING. THICKNESSES SUGGEST SOME SLEET
PSBL AT THE START ACROSS NWRN MOST CNTYS WITH RAIN OVRSPRDG THE FA
SUNDAY AFTRN AS THE LOW PRS TRACKS ACROSS NRN VA. HIGHS IN THE 40S
AS THE COLD AIR LURKS JUST NORTH OF THE FA. LIKELY RAIN SUNDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE FA...BUT LWRD TO CHC POPS AFTR MIDNIGHT. KEPT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS LATE AS THE PCPN ENDS. ANY P TYPE
ISSUES WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH CAN
COME SOUTH BEFORE PCPN ENDS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO NR 40
ACROSS NC NE CNTYS NR THE ALBEMARLE SND.

SPLIT MONDAYS FCST UP INTO 2 SEGMENTS AS WELL. CHC RAIN ALONG AND
EAST OF I95 IN THE MORNING...DRYING IT OUT IN THE AFTRN AS THE
TRAILING FRNT CLRS THE COAST. COULD EVEN SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
THE LWR MD ERN SHORE ERLY MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE U30S N TO M-U40S S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT THRU TUES NIGHT.
LOWS MON NITE UTEENS TO U20S. HIGHS TUE IN THE 30S. LOWS TUE NIGHT
IN THE 20S TO NR 30.

YET ANTHR MOIST SRN STREAM SYSTM PROGGED TO COME OUT OF THE GULF
COAST STATES AND MOVE NE ALONG THE SERN COAST WED. THIS SYTM BEARS
WATCHING AS THE COLD AIR MAY BE HARDER TO DISLODGE. WENT WITH CHC
POPS (LIQUID) FOR NOW WITH HIGHS 40-45.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE NW THIS AFTERNOON
UNDER A CLEAR SKY. A NW WIND IS AVERAGING 10-15KT...WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20KT CLOSER TO THE COAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
THE REGION TONIGHT RESULTING IN A CLEAR SKY AND CALM TO VERY LIGHT
WIND. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ALONG WITH
AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA ALONG AND N OF A
RIC-SBY LINE...AND PERHAPS PCPN ENDING AS A MIX OF -RASN AT SBY.
A GUSTY NW WIND IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. THAT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH A MORE MOIST FRONTAL
SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
CRNT SCA`S CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS SCNDRY CAA SURGE SEEN IN THE
DATA THIS EVENING. SEAS STILL AOA 5 FT...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY SUBSIDE
AFTR MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE W.

ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF "SUB SCA" CNDTNS XPCTD THU BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTM APPRCHS FROM THE WEST. WINDS QUICKLY BECOME SOUTH THU AS HIGH
PRS MOVES OFF THE COAST...THEN SW AS A WRM FRNT BRIEFLY LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A STRNG CDFRNT ERLY FRI MORNING. WILL
LIKELY SEE SCA`S FOR THE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRNT.

CTRNG CAA PROGGED BEHIND THE CD FRNT FRI INTO SAT. WNDS BECOME NW
AND INCRS INTO THE GALE RANGE. DATA SUGGESTS GUSTS BTWN 40-45 KTS
ACROSS THE CSTL WTRS (HIGHEST NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISL) WITH 35 KTS
GUSTS IN THE CHES BAY. GIVEN TMPS FALLING BLO 30 DEGREES...FREEZING
SPRAY REMAINS IN FORECAST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZING SPRAY
ADVSRY ACROSS NRN CSTL WTRS WHERE AIR TMPS IN THE L20S ARE XPCTD.
SEAS/WAVES QUICKLY INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE GUSTY WINDS. SEAS AVG
7-10 FT WITH WAVES 4-5 FT DURING THIS PERIOD.

CNDTNS BEGIN TO IMPROVE SAT NIGHT AS THE CANADIAN HIGH TRACKS OVR
THE RGN. NXT SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE SUN INTO MON. WILL LIKELY SEE ANTHR ROUND OF SCA`S
WITH THIS SYSTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...MPR







000
FXUS61 KLWX 281930
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
230 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER INTO EARLY THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY. A
WINDY AND DRY FRIDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION
SUNDAY AND WILL IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION ON
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH THE DAY STARTED OFF W/ A QUICK INCREASE OF TEMPS...IT
LEVELED-OFF LATE MRNG W/ ONLY A SLOW CLIMB TO OUR MAX WHICH IS
LIKELY OCCURRING HERE IN THE MIDDLE AFTN. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE
AREA ARE STILL IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...NOT IDEAL FOR ANYTHING OTHER
THAN A BITING COLD FEEL TO THE AIR. GUSTY WINDS IN THE 20-25MPH
RANGE ARE ADDING TO THE DISCOMFORT...THOUGH THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM THE LATE AFTN HRS THRU THE EVE. PAST
SUNSET...WINDS SHOULD BE ONLY A LIGHT NW BREEZE. BY THEN...THE
VERY LOW DEWPOINTS WILL AIDE IN ANOTHER SHARP TEMP DROP LATE
TONIGHT BACK INTO THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THE AREA. LOW LEVEL
DECOUPLING OF WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL MAKE CERTAIN THAT THIS
OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DENSE HIGH CIRRUS WILL START THE DAY ON THU...W/ A CONTINUED
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL AGAIN GRADUALLY CLIMB BACK INTO THE 20S AND L30S THRU
THE MRNG. A COLD FRONT TAILING DOWN FROM A CLIPPER SYSTEM WELL TO
OUR NORTH WILL QUICKLY TRUDGE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST OVERNIGHT
AND INTO EARLY THU. BY MIDDAY...THIS FEATURE WILL BE ON THE
DOORSTEP OF THE CNTRL APLCNS - SLIDING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THRU THE EARLY AFTN HRS.

A STRENGTHENING SLY SFC WIND WILL HELP BUMP TEMPS BACK UP INTO
THE M-U30S FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THE FROPA. NRN MD
AND JUST INTO NRN VA WILL STILL BE HANGING ONTO THE NEAR OR SUB-
FREEZING SFC TEMPS AS PRECIP APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. PLENTY OF
DRY AIR WILL GREET THE INCOMING PRECIP...LIKELY PREVENTING MUCH OF
IT FROM REACHING THE SFC UNTIL FROPA TOWARD THE LATE AFTN PERIOD.
THE LOWER ATMOS OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA WILL ALLOW FOR A MIX
OF RAIN/SNOW - POSSIBLY SLEET - AS THE INITIAL WAVE OF PRECIP
ARRIVES. THE NRN TIER OF THE CWA /NRN MD/ WILL LIKELY BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SNOW W/ SOME LIQUID MIXED-IN AND THIS IS ALSO
WHERE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE...ALBEIT
VERY LIGHT. A RAIN SNOW MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TIER OF COUNTIES
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE I-66 CORRIDOR AND MUCH OF THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS/BLUE RIDGE.

THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE PROGRESSIVE...SO PRECIP CHANCES MAY BE
LIMITED TO THIS BAND AND CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DRY OUT BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY - MINUS THE APLCNS. THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL THEN BECOME
THE FOCUS OF MULTI-PERIOD UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS W/ POTENTIAL
ADVISORY SNOWS FOR THESE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS ALONG THE SPINE OF
THE CNTRL APLCNS.

AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY WHILE THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST. PVA AND A COLD POOL
ALOFT MAY LEAD TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NW WINDS WILL BE
BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH FRIDAY. HIGHER WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
AND ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE WARRANTED FOR
THESE AREAS DURING THIS TIME. COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOW 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE
LOW 30S ALONG I-95. DUE TO GUSTY WINDS...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE
IN THE TEENS TO 20S. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT BUT
SUBSIDE SOME WITH GUSTS AROUND 30MPH INTO SATURDAY MORNING. FCST MIN
TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE TO THE TEENS ELSEWHERE. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DROP FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WC ADVISORIES MAY BE WARRANTED
NORTH AND WEST OF THE BALT/DC METROS INCLUDING WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE MTNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SAT...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO
START THE DAY ON SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SLOWLY REBOUND FROM READING
IN THE TEENS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WHILE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM LOWER TEENS AND EVEN SINGLE DIGITS WEST OF
I-81. FAIR SKIES ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

SUN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST EARLY IN THE DAY.
MEANWHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY WILL HEAD EAST.
MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. THE MODELS SHOW SW WINDS ALOFT
INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES AT THE
SURFACE WILL BE TOUGHER TO ERODE UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECTING A
WINTRY MIX ON SUNDAY. CURRENT TIMING OF PRECIP SUGGESTS THE LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. OF COURSE CONFIDENCE OF
TIMING PRECIP THIS FAR OUT IS PROBLEMATIC...AND MODEL CHANGE OF
ONLY 6 HRS WILL HAVE BIG IMPLICATIONS ON JUST WHAT TYPE OF PRECIP
WILL FALL. HOWEVER AM CONCERNED ABOUT COMING OUT OF A 36 HOUR OF
SUBFREEZING TEMPS AND MODELS TRYING TO SCOUR OUT THE COLD AIR TOO
FAST. THUS ADDED A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN FOR ABOUT THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE CWA. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ALTHO THE 12Z GFS IS AGGRESSIVE MOVING THE PRECIP OUT
QUICKLY SUN NIGHT.

MON...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVING ACROSS THE MASON-DIXON LINE EARLY IN
THE DAY BRINGING END TO PRECIP. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL BY
4-8 DEGREES-F. THERE COULD BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LINGERING SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION.

TUE-WED...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TUE AND CONTINUES
THROUGH WED. TUE WILL BE COLD...ABOUT 10-14 DEGF BELOW NORMAL. TEMPS
ON WED MODERATE SOME. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING OFF THE SE COAST. BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GUSTY WINDS AND COLD TEMPS THE MAIN WX CONCERN FOR AREA AIRPORTS
INTO EARLY THU. CLR SKIES BUT GUSTY WINDS MARK THIS AFTN`S
PERIOD...THO GUSTS WILL DROP OFF TOWARD SUNSET. SLY WINDS WILL
PICK UP MID-MRNG THU AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE
FRONT WILL CARRY A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW FOR A RELATIVELY BRIEF WINDOW
OF THE LATE AFTN/EVE AS THE BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION. TIMING
AND PRECIP- TYPES MAY BECOME MORE CLEAR CLOSER TO THE
PASSAGE...WHICH IS TOWARD LATER PART OF THE CURRENT TAF CYCLE.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
20-25KTS G 35 KTS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. NW WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOME
FRIDAY NIGHT BUT CONTINUE OUT OF THE NW 10-15KTS G20KTS. NW WINDS
AROUND 5-10KTS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
WIDESPREAD LOW-END SCA CONDS THIS AFTN WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH INTO THE LATE NIGHT HRS. A BRIEF LULL OVERNIGHT BUT
THEN SLY CHANNELING WILL BEGIN LATE THE AFTN THU AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SWING THRU THE AREA LATE THU
AFTN/EVE...SWITCHING WINDS BACK TO NWLY WHERE THEY STILL STAY THRU
THE END OF THE WEEK.

POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO NW WINDS 20-25KTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 40 KTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GALE WARNINGS ARE LIKELY DURING THIS
TIME. NW WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOME FRIDAY NIGHT BUT WINDS SHOULD STAY
GUSTY AND GALES OR SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY. NW WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
BY SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GMS/SMZ
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...HAS/SMZ
AVIATION...GMS/HAS/SMZ
MARINE...GMS/HAS/SMZ







000
FXUS61 KLWX 281930
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
230 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER INTO EARLY THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY. A
WINDY AND DRY FRIDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION
SUNDAY AND WILL IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION ON
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH THE DAY STARTED OFF W/ A QUICK INCREASE OF TEMPS...IT
LEVELED-OFF LATE MRNG W/ ONLY A SLOW CLIMB TO OUR MAX WHICH IS
LIKELY OCCURRING HERE IN THE MIDDLE AFTN. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE
AREA ARE STILL IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...NOT IDEAL FOR ANYTHING OTHER
THAN A BITING COLD FEEL TO THE AIR. GUSTY WINDS IN THE 20-25MPH
RANGE ARE ADDING TO THE DISCOMFORT...THOUGH THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM THE LATE AFTN HRS THRU THE EVE. PAST
SUNSET...WINDS SHOULD BE ONLY A LIGHT NW BREEZE. BY THEN...THE
VERY LOW DEWPOINTS WILL AIDE IN ANOTHER SHARP TEMP DROP LATE
TONIGHT BACK INTO THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THE AREA. LOW LEVEL
DECOUPLING OF WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL MAKE CERTAIN THAT THIS
OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DENSE HIGH CIRRUS WILL START THE DAY ON THU...W/ A CONTINUED
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL AGAIN GRADUALLY CLIMB BACK INTO THE 20S AND L30S THRU
THE MRNG. A COLD FRONT TAILING DOWN FROM A CLIPPER SYSTEM WELL TO
OUR NORTH WILL QUICKLY TRUDGE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST OVERNIGHT
AND INTO EARLY THU. BY MIDDAY...THIS FEATURE WILL BE ON THE
DOORSTEP OF THE CNTRL APLCNS - SLIDING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THRU THE EARLY AFTN HRS.

A STRENGTHENING SLY SFC WIND WILL HELP BUMP TEMPS BACK UP INTO
THE M-U30S FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THE FROPA. NRN MD
AND JUST INTO NRN VA WILL STILL BE HANGING ONTO THE NEAR OR SUB-
FREEZING SFC TEMPS AS PRECIP APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. PLENTY OF
DRY AIR WILL GREET THE INCOMING PRECIP...LIKELY PREVENTING MUCH OF
IT FROM REACHING THE SFC UNTIL FROPA TOWARD THE LATE AFTN PERIOD.
THE LOWER ATMOS OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA WILL ALLOW FOR A MIX
OF RAIN/SNOW - POSSIBLY SLEET - AS THE INITIAL WAVE OF PRECIP
ARRIVES. THE NRN TIER OF THE CWA /NRN MD/ WILL LIKELY BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SNOW W/ SOME LIQUID MIXED-IN AND THIS IS ALSO
WHERE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE...ALBEIT
VERY LIGHT. A RAIN SNOW MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TIER OF COUNTIES
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE I-66 CORRIDOR AND MUCH OF THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS/BLUE RIDGE.

THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE PROGRESSIVE...SO PRECIP CHANCES MAY BE
LIMITED TO THIS BAND AND CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DRY OUT BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY - MINUS THE APLCNS. THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL THEN BECOME
THE FOCUS OF MULTI-PERIOD UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS W/ POTENTIAL
ADVISORY SNOWS FOR THESE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS ALONG THE SPINE OF
THE CNTRL APLCNS.

AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY WHILE THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST. PVA AND A COLD POOL
ALOFT MAY LEAD TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NW WINDS WILL BE
BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH FRIDAY. HIGHER WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
AND ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE WARRANTED FOR
THESE AREAS DURING THIS TIME. COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOW 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE
LOW 30S ALONG I-95. DUE TO GUSTY WINDS...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE
IN THE TEENS TO 20S. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT BUT
SUBSIDE SOME WITH GUSTS AROUND 30MPH INTO SATURDAY MORNING. FCST MIN
TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE TO THE TEENS ELSEWHERE. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DROP FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WC ADVISORIES MAY BE WARRANTED
NORTH AND WEST OF THE BALT/DC METROS INCLUDING WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE MTNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SAT...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO
START THE DAY ON SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SLOWLY REBOUND FROM READING
IN THE TEENS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WHILE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM LOWER TEENS AND EVEN SINGLE DIGITS WEST OF
I-81. FAIR SKIES ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

SUN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST EARLY IN THE DAY.
MEANWHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY WILL HEAD EAST.
MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. THE MODELS SHOW SW WINDS ALOFT
INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES AT THE
SURFACE WILL BE TOUGHER TO ERODE UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECTING A
WINTRY MIX ON SUNDAY. CURRENT TIMING OF PRECIP SUGGESTS THE LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. OF COURSE CONFIDENCE OF
TIMING PRECIP THIS FAR OUT IS PROBLEMATIC...AND MODEL CHANGE OF
ONLY 6 HRS WILL HAVE BIG IMPLICATIONS ON JUST WHAT TYPE OF PRECIP
WILL FALL. HOWEVER AM CONCERNED ABOUT COMING OUT OF A 36 HOUR OF
SUBFREEZING TEMPS AND MODELS TRYING TO SCOUR OUT THE COLD AIR TOO
FAST. THUS ADDED A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN FOR ABOUT THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE CWA. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ALTHO THE 12Z GFS IS AGGRESSIVE MOVING THE PRECIP OUT
QUICKLY SUN NIGHT.

MON...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVING ACROSS THE MASON-DIXON LINE EARLY IN
THE DAY BRINGING END TO PRECIP. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL BY
4-8 DEGREES-F. THERE COULD BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LINGERING SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION.

TUE-WED...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TUE AND CONTINUES
THROUGH WED. TUE WILL BE COLD...ABOUT 10-14 DEGF BELOW NORMAL. TEMPS
ON WED MODERATE SOME. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING OFF THE SE COAST. BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GUSTY WINDS AND COLD TEMPS THE MAIN WX CONCERN FOR AREA AIRPORTS
INTO EARLY THU. CLR SKIES BUT GUSTY WINDS MARK THIS AFTN`S
PERIOD...THO GUSTS WILL DROP OFF TOWARD SUNSET. SLY WINDS WILL
PICK UP MID-MRNG THU AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE
FRONT WILL CARRY A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW FOR A RELATIVELY BRIEF WINDOW
OF THE LATE AFTN/EVE AS THE BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION. TIMING
AND PRECIP- TYPES MAY BECOME MORE CLEAR CLOSER TO THE
PASSAGE...WHICH IS TOWARD LATER PART OF THE CURRENT TAF CYCLE.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
20-25KTS G 35 KTS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. NW WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOME
FRIDAY NIGHT BUT CONTINUE OUT OF THE NW 10-15KTS G20KTS. NW WINDS
AROUND 5-10KTS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
WIDESPREAD LOW-END SCA CONDS THIS AFTN WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH INTO THE LATE NIGHT HRS. A BRIEF LULL OVERNIGHT BUT
THEN SLY CHANNELING WILL BEGIN LATE THE AFTN THU AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SWING THRU THE AREA LATE THU
AFTN/EVE...SWITCHING WINDS BACK TO NWLY WHERE THEY STILL STAY THRU
THE END OF THE WEEK.

POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO NW WINDS 20-25KTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 40 KTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GALE WARNINGS ARE LIKELY DURING THIS
TIME. NW WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOME FRIDAY NIGHT BUT WINDS SHOULD STAY
GUSTY AND GALES OR SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY. NW WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
BY SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GMS/SMZ
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...HAS/SMZ
AVIATION...GMS/HAS/SMZ
MARINE...GMS/HAS/SMZ








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281912
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
212 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CROSSING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE UPPER OHIO REGION ON THURSDAY AND SNOW EARLY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRES WL CONT TO BLD EWD TNGT AS SHRTWV TROUGH MOVS RAPIDLY
OUT OF THE MIDWEST. INITIAL TEMP DROP WL BE RAPID IN THE DRY
AIRMASS...BUT WL BE EVENTUALLY RETARDED BY WARM...MOIST ADVCTN
ABOVE THE BNDRY LYR.

OVRNGT LOWS WERE BASED ON PERSISTENCE WITH THE LATEST GFS AND NAM TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS PROJECTED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY WITH THE SFC LOW PROJECTED WELL ENOUGH NORTH FOR THE ERN
FLANK WARM SURGE TO SPPRT A WINTRY MIX AND CHANGE TO RAIN OVR
MOST OF THE REGION.

LATEST MDL TRENDS ARE OF LATER SFC SATURATION AND BTR CHANCE THAT
SFC TEMPS WL RISE WELL ABOVE FREEZING. NEVERTHELESS...THE
PROGNOSIS WAS HEDGED TOWARD COOLER GUIDANCE GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF
WET BULBING IN THE DEEP DRY LAYER. AT ANY RATE...THE FORECAST
FEATURES A SNOW RAIN OVR MOST OF THE AREA...POTENTIALLY STILL
COMPLICATED BY FROZEN SURFACES. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED FOR THE ERN TIER OF COUNTIES AS WELL AS THOSE ALNG
INTERSTATE 80...WHERE BTR CHC FOR ICE BUILDUP FOLLOWED BY SVRL
INCH SNOW ACCUMULATION WL RESIDE.

STRONG COLD ADVCTN WL SPPRT SNOW SHWRS INTO FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE SYSTEMS FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH LIMITATIONS IMPOSED VIA
LOWERING INVERSIONS AND DRY ADVCTN ON THE LEE OF A FROZEN LAKE
ERIE.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY TO OCCUR IN THE EARLY MORNING WITH A
STEADY DECLINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRES WL BRING VFR CONDS THRU TNGT. LOW PRES ADVNG ACRS THE GT
LKS IS EXPD TO BRING MVFR CONDS IN RAIN SHWRS THU S OF I 80...WITH
A WINTRY MIX TO THE N. PCPN SHOULD START FM LT MRNG INTO ERLY AFTN
W OF PIT...WITH A MD AFTN ARRIVAL E OF PIT. IN ADDN...A LLVL JET
SETTING UP FM OH INTO NWRN PA IS EXPD TO BRING LLWS TO ZZV THU
MRNG. WITH MXG EXPG SFC GUSTS AT FKL AND DUJ INSTEAD OF LLWS.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY THRU ERLY FRI AS A CDFNT EXITS. WDSRPD RSTRNS
ARE LIKELY AGAIN WITH ADVNG LOW PRES SUN AND MON.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR PAZ007>009-015-016-023-074-076.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281912
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
212 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CROSSING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE UPPER OHIO REGION ON THURSDAY AND SNOW EARLY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRES WL CONT TO BLD EWD TNGT AS SHRTWV TROUGH MOVS RAPIDLY
OUT OF THE MIDWEST. INITIAL TEMP DROP WL BE RAPID IN THE DRY
AIRMASS...BUT WL BE EVENTUALLY RETARDED BY WARM...MOIST ADVCTN
ABOVE THE BNDRY LYR.

OVRNGT LOWS WERE BASED ON PERSISTENCE WITH THE LATEST GFS AND NAM TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS PROJECTED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY WITH THE SFC LOW PROJECTED WELL ENOUGH NORTH FOR THE ERN
FLANK WARM SURGE TO SPPRT A WINTRY MIX AND CHANGE TO RAIN OVR
MOST OF THE REGION.

LATEST MDL TRENDS ARE OF LATER SFC SATURATION AND BTR CHANCE THAT
SFC TEMPS WL RISE WELL ABOVE FREEZING. NEVERTHELESS...THE
PROGNOSIS WAS HEDGED TOWARD COOLER GUIDANCE GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF
WET BULBING IN THE DEEP DRY LAYER. AT ANY RATE...THE FORECAST
FEATURES A SNOW RAIN OVR MOST OF THE AREA...POTENTIALLY STILL
COMPLICATED BY FROZEN SURFACES. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED FOR THE ERN TIER OF COUNTIES AS WELL AS THOSE ALNG
INTERSTATE 80...WHERE BTR CHC FOR ICE BUILDUP FOLLOWED BY SVRL
INCH SNOW ACCUMULATION WL RESIDE.

STRONG COLD ADVCTN WL SPPRT SNOW SHWRS INTO FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE SYSTEMS FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH LIMITATIONS IMPOSED VIA
LOWERING INVERSIONS AND DRY ADVCTN ON THE LEE OF A FROZEN LAKE
ERIE.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY TO OCCUR IN THE EARLY MORNING WITH A
STEADY DECLINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRES WL BRING VFR CONDS THRU TNGT. LOW PRES ADVNG ACRS THE GT
LKS IS EXPD TO BRING MVFR CONDS IN RAIN SHWRS THU S OF I 80...WITH
A WINTRY MIX TO THE N. PCPN SHOULD START FM LT MRNG INTO ERLY AFTN
W OF PIT...WITH A MD AFTN ARRIVAL E OF PIT. IN ADDN...A LLVL JET
SETTING UP FM OH INTO NWRN PA IS EXPD TO BRING LLWS TO ZZV THU
MRNG. WITH MXG EXPG SFC GUSTS AT FKL AND DUJ INSTEAD OF LLWS.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY THRU ERLY FRI AS A CDFNT EXITS. WDSRPD RSTRNS
ARE LIKELY AGAIN WITH ADVNG LOW PRES SUN AND MON.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR PAZ007>009-015-016-023-074-076.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281826
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
126 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE THURSDAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS REVEALS STRONG COASTAL LOW (~989MB) LIFTING
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE/BAY OF FUNDY AREA TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA
AT SUNRISE THIS MORNING. TO THE WEST, ~1027MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, AND IS FORECAST
BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. DID NUDGE
TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WINDS KEEPING
TEMPS UP ABOVE GUIDANCE, BUT DO EXPECT WINDS TO DROP OFF BRIEFLY
JUST BEFORE DAWN...AND IN THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, EXPECT
READINGS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. THICKNESS TOOLS
MESH WELL WITH THE GOING FORECAST, WITH EXPECTED HIGHS TODAY IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER UPR 30S OVER THE EASTERN SHORE. CONDITIONS WL REMAIN A BIT
BREEZY THROUGH THE AFTN, WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AVGG 15-20 MPH
(GUSTS TO 25) ALONG THE COAST, 5-10 MPH INLAND. THIS WILL KEEP
WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S THROUGH THE DAY FOR MOST DESPITE A SUNNY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT/ERY
THURSDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD YIELD GOOD RADIATING
CONDITIONS AND A COLDER NIGHT TNGT. EARLY MORNING LOWS THURSDAY
MORNING 15 TO 20 INLAND TO LOWER TO MID 20S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING, ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO RETURN AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. NOT MUCH MOISTURE FOR THE SYSTEM TO WORK WITH AS IT
CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THU
AFTN/EVENING, OWING TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THUS, HAVE
KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON THU...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHC TO LOW CHC (20-30%) CHANCE FOR SOME PASSING RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE RICHMOND METRO AREA. ANY SHRAS LATE THU
AFTN/EVENING WOULD BE BRIEF, WITH QPF ON THE ORDER OF A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT BEST. 00Z/28 DATA IS ALSO A BIT QUICKER TO DRY OUT
ANY PCPN OVER THE EASTERN SHORE, SO WILL GO WITH RN/SN LATE THU
NGT AND LOWER POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR HIGHS, PRE-FRONTAL SW FLOW
YIELDS A MODEST AND SHORT LIVED WARM UP ON THU, WITH HIGHS INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S (WARMEST I-85/US-1 CORRIDOR). ASSOCIATED SFC
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE THU NGT/FRIDAY MORNING, USHERING
IN A SHARPLY COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
LOOK FOR BRISK WINDS OUT OF THE NW THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT TO YIELD WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S DURING THE DAY FRIDAY
AND INTO THE LOW TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT (SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO ON
THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NRN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS PREVAILING. TROUGH EXITS THE COAST FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY SAT. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE
AROUND -10C (-1 STD DEV). THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
NOW WITH PUSHING THE SFC HIGH OFFSHORE SUN AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
PROGGED TO LIFT FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS SUN...AND NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT. TRAILING
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT. DEEP H85 TROUGH
EXPECTED TO ADVECT MOISTURE NWD FROM THE ERN GULF INTO THE REGION
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING
WINDS ALOFT...WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
THE AREA LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS INTO
THE LOW-MID 40S (POSSIBLY WARMER) SUN...WITH THE COLDEST AIR
REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE
PREDOMINATELY RAIN...BUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE
ONSET AS WAA KICKS IN. HOWEVER...NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALL
RAIN LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH A POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER ACROSS THE
NRN ZONES LATE SAT NIGHT AS COLD AIR PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WLY
PUSH BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN DRYING CONDITIONS MON-
TUES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. BY
TUES...TEMPS FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE NW THIS AFTERNOON
UNDER A CLEAR SKY. A NW WIND IS AVERAGING 10-15KT...WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20KT CLOSER TO THE COAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
THE REGION TONIGHT RESULTING IN A CLEAR SKY AND CALM TO VERY LIGHT
WIND. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ALONG WITH
AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA ALONG AND N OF A
RIC-SBY LINE...AND PERHAPS PCPN ENDING AS A MIX OF -RASN AT SBY.
A GUSTY NW WIND IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. THAT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH A MORE MOIST FRONTAL
SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE TO REMOVE THE RIVERS FROM THE SCA. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINING FLAGS REMAIN AS IS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COASTAL LOW LOCATED OFF THE MAINE AND NOVA SCOTIA COASTS WILL PUSH
OUT TO SEA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY.
THERE IS STILL JUST ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN THESE
SYSTEMS TO KEEP BREEZY NW WINDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25KT. GUSTS UP TO 30KT WILL
PERSIST ON THE BAY THROUGH THIS MORNING...AND ON THE COASTAL
WATERS ALL DAY. SEAS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 5-8FT NORTH TO 7-10FT
SOUTH AND ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
DROPPING BELOW 5FT LATE TONIGHT. WAVES OF 3-5FT WILL ALSO SUBSIDE
TO 3-4FT THROUGH TODAY...DROPPING TO 2-3FT BY LATE THIS EVENING.
SCA FLAGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH AOB 15KT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FINALLY RELAXES. THE
HIGH GETS SHUNTED OVER THE SE COAST THU AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CLIPPER IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS LATE THU NIGHT. A
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED
PRIMARILY DURING FRI/FRI NIGHT AS A COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS GETS
PULLED OVER THE WATERS BY THE DEPARTING LOW AND A CANADIAN HIGH
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. MODELS HAVE TRENDED COLDER WITH REGARD
TO THE AIRMASS TEMPERATURES THUS RESULTING IN STRONGER CAA
PROCESSES. SINCE MODELS TEND TO UNDERCUT WIND SPEEDS IN THESE
SITUATIONS...DECIDED TO GO ABOVE GUIDANCE WHICH PUTS THE WATERS
WITHIN POTENTIALLY SOLID GALE CONDITIONS (EXCEPT RIVERS/SOUND)
FRI/FRI NIGHT. NW WINDS WOULD AVERAGE 20-25KT WITH GUSTS OF
35-40KT. SEAS/WAVES ALSO EXPECTED TO BUILD QUICKLY ONCE THE WIND
SURGE BEGINS. SEAS COULD REACH 7-10FT...WAVES COULD REACH 4-6FT.
WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON MODEL TRENDS FOR POTENTIAL
HEADLINES IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. REGARDLESS OF STRENGTH...
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE/DIMINISH SAT NIGHT AS THE
CANADIAN HIGH SLIDES DIRECTLY OVER THE WATERS. A SOUTHERN STREAM
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE SUN INTO MON.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...BMD/AJZ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281826
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
126 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE THURSDAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS REVEALS STRONG COASTAL LOW (~989MB) LIFTING
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE/BAY OF FUNDY AREA TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA
AT SUNRISE THIS MORNING. TO THE WEST, ~1027MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, AND IS FORECAST
BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. DID NUDGE
TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WINDS KEEPING
TEMPS UP ABOVE GUIDANCE, BUT DO EXPECT WINDS TO DROP OFF BRIEFLY
JUST BEFORE DAWN...AND IN THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, EXPECT
READINGS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. THICKNESS TOOLS
MESH WELL WITH THE GOING FORECAST, WITH EXPECTED HIGHS TODAY IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER UPR 30S OVER THE EASTERN SHORE. CONDITIONS WL REMAIN A BIT
BREEZY THROUGH THE AFTN, WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AVGG 15-20 MPH
(GUSTS TO 25) ALONG THE COAST, 5-10 MPH INLAND. THIS WILL KEEP
WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S THROUGH THE DAY FOR MOST DESPITE A SUNNY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT/ERY
THURSDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD YIELD GOOD RADIATING
CONDITIONS AND A COLDER NIGHT TNGT. EARLY MORNING LOWS THURSDAY
MORNING 15 TO 20 INLAND TO LOWER TO MID 20S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING, ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO RETURN AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. NOT MUCH MOISTURE FOR THE SYSTEM TO WORK WITH AS IT
CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THU
AFTN/EVENING, OWING TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THUS, HAVE
KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON THU...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHC TO LOW CHC (20-30%) CHANCE FOR SOME PASSING RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE RICHMOND METRO AREA. ANY SHRAS LATE THU
AFTN/EVENING WOULD BE BRIEF, WITH QPF ON THE ORDER OF A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT BEST. 00Z/28 DATA IS ALSO A BIT QUICKER TO DRY OUT
ANY PCPN OVER THE EASTERN SHORE, SO WILL GO WITH RN/SN LATE THU
NGT AND LOWER POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR HIGHS, PRE-FRONTAL SW FLOW
YIELDS A MODEST AND SHORT LIVED WARM UP ON THU, WITH HIGHS INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S (WARMEST I-85/US-1 CORRIDOR). ASSOCIATED SFC
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE THU NGT/FRIDAY MORNING, USHERING
IN A SHARPLY COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
LOOK FOR BRISK WINDS OUT OF THE NW THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT TO YIELD WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S DURING THE DAY FRIDAY
AND INTO THE LOW TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT (SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO ON
THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NRN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS PREVAILING. TROUGH EXITS THE COAST FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY SAT. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE
AROUND -10C (-1 STD DEV). THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
NOW WITH PUSHING THE SFC HIGH OFFSHORE SUN AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
PROGGED TO LIFT FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS SUN...AND NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT. TRAILING
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT. DEEP H85 TROUGH
EXPECTED TO ADVECT MOISTURE NWD FROM THE ERN GULF INTO THE REGION
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING
WINDS ALOFT...WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
THE AREA LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS INTO
THE LOW-MID 40S (POSSIBLY WARMER) SUN...WITH THE COLDEST AIR
REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE
PREDOMINATELY RAIN...BUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE
ONSET AS WAA KICKS IN. HOWEVER...NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALL
RAIN LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH A POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER ACROSS THE
NRN ZONES LATE SAT NIGHT AS COLD AIR PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WLY
PUSH BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN DRYING CONDITIONS MON-
TUES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. BY
TUES...TEMPS FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE NW THIS AFTERNOON
UNDER A CLEAR SKY. A NW WIND IS AVERAGING 10-15KT...WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20KT CLOSER TO THE COAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
THE REGION TONIGHT RESULTING IN A CLEAR SKY AND CALM TO VERY LIGHT
WIND. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ALONG WITH
AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA ALONG AND N OF A
RIC-SBY LINE...AND PERHAPS PCPN ENDING AS A MIX OF -RASN AT SBY.
A GUSTY NW WIND IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. THAT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH A MORE MOIST FRONTAL
SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE TO REMOVE THE RIVERS FROM THE SCA. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINING FLAGS REMAIN AS IS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COASTAL LOW LOCATED OFF THE MAINE AND NOVA SCOTIA COASTS WILL PUSH
OUT TO SEA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY.
THERE IS STILL JUST ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN THESE
SYSTEMS TO KEEP BREEZY NW WINDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25KT. GUSTS UP TO 30KT WILL
PERSIST ON THE BAY THROUGH THIS MORNING...AND ON THE COASTAL
WATERS ALL DAY. SEAS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 5-8FT NORTH TO 7-10FT
SOUTH AND ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
DROPPING BELOW 5FT LATE TONIGHT. WAVES OF 3-5FT WILL ALSO SUBSIDE
TO 3-4FT THROUGH TODAY...DROPPING TO 2-3FT BY LATE THIS EVENING.
SCA FLAGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH AOB 15KT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FINALLY RELAXES. THE
HIGH GETS SHUNTED OVER THE SE COAST THU AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CLIPPER IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS LATE THU NIGHT. A
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED
PRIMARILY DURING FRI/FRI NIGHT AS A COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS GETS
PULLED OVER THE WATERS BY THE DEPARTING LOW AND A CANADIAN HIGH
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. MODELS HAVE TRENDED COLDER WITH REGARD
TO THE AIRMASS TEMPERATURES THUS RESULTING IN STRONGER CAA
PROCESSES. SINCE MODELS TEND TO UNDERCUT WIND SPEEDS IN THESE
SITUATIONS...DECIDED TO GO ABOVE GUIDANCE WHICH PUTS THE WATERS
WITHIN POTENTIALLY SOLID GALE CONDITIONS (EXCEPT RIVERS/SOUND)
FRI/FRI NIGHT. NW WINDS WOULD AVERAGE 20-25KT WITH GUSTS OF
35-40KT. SEAS/WAVES ALSO EXPECTED TO BUILD QUICKLY ONCE THE WIND
SURGE BEGINS. SEAS COULD REACH 7-10FT...WAVES COULD REACH 4-6FT.
WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON MODEL TRENDS FOR POTENTIAL
HEADLINES IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. REGARDLESS OF STRENGTH...
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE/DIMINISH SAT NIGHT AS THE
CANADIAN HIGH SLIDES DIRECTLY OVER THE WATERS. A SOUTHERN STREAM
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE SUN INTO MON.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...BMD/AJZ





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281707
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1207 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CROSSING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR ALTERATIONS WERE NEEDED FOR THE EARLY AFTN AS COLD HIGH
PRES HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED THE CLDS AND FLURRIES.

RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND WAA WILL BE ONGOING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK. TEMPS WILL START
TO SLOWLY RISE AS DAYBREAK APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. NEXT SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY MORNING
REACHING WESTERN OHIO BY MIDDAY. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN THE FORECAST GETS REAL TRICKY.
WAA CONTINUES AHEAD OF BOUNDARY AS LOW LEVEL JET WILL PULL WARMER
AIR NORTHWARD. LOW AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESS QUICKLY RISE TO LEVELS
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS
CORRECT...THIS WARMING MAY ENVELOP THE WHOLE AREA. TEMPERATURE
WILL RISE THURSDAY...BUT WITH A VERY COLD GROUND AND LARGE SNOW
PACK THE SURFACE ITSELF WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND. THERE IS A HIGH
THREAT THURSDAY FOR A PERIOD OF ICE ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA. THE
REAL HEADACHE COMES FROM THE FACT THAT SENSORS MAY SHOW TEMPS
ABOVE 32...BUT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED GROUND CONDITIONS...RAIN
WILL FREEZE AS IT CONTACTS THE SURFACE. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
GFS AND NAM FOR PRECIP TYPE...BUT THE KEY WILL BE TO FIGURE OUT
THE SURFACE TEMPS...WHICH WILL BE NO EASY TASK.

COLD FRONT QUICKLY CLEARS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE REGION. LOW AND MID-LEVEL
THICKNESS QUICKLY RESPOND AND EXPECT AN ATMOSPHERE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ALL SNOW BY 06Z FRIDAY. BY THIS TIME...MOST...IF NOT ALL
OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...WITH STRONG CAA AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVEN WITH
LOWERING INVERSIONS AND A FROZEN LAKE ERIE. SNOW GROWTH ZONES RAPIDLY
DROP FRIDAY...SO UNTIL THE LOWER LAYERS DRY OUT...THE THREAT FOR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL FOCUS
HIGHEST POPS ON THE RIDGES AND FAR NORTH.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY TO OCCUR IN THE EARLY MORNING WITH A
STEADY DECLINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES WL BRING VFR CONDS THRU TNGT. LOW PRES ADVNG ACRS THE GT
LKS IS EXPD TO BRING MVFR CONDS IN RAIN SHWRS THU S OF I 80...WITH
A WINTRY MIX TO THE N. PCPN SHOULD START FM LT MRNG INTO ERLY AFTN
W OF PIT...WITH A MD AFTN ARRIVAL E OF PIT. IN ADDN...A LLVL JET
SETTING UP FM OH INTO NWRN PA IS EXPD TO BRING LLWS TO ZZV THU
MRNG. WITH MXG EXPG SFC GUSTS AT FKL AND DUJ INSTEAD OF LLWS.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY THRU ERLY FRI AS A CDFNT EXITS. WDSRPD RSTRNS
ARE LIKELY AGAIN WITH ADVNG LOW PRES SUN AND MON.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281707
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1207 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CROSSING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR ALTERATIONS WERE NEEDED FOR THE EARLY AFTN AS COLD HIGH
PRES HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED THE CLDS AND FLURRIES.

RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND WAA WILL BE ONGOING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK. TEMPS WILL START
TO SLOWLY RISE AS DAYBREAK APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. NEXT SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY MORNING
REACHING WESTERN OHIO BY MIDDAY. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN THE FORECAST GETS REAL TRICKY.
WAA CONTINUES AHEAD OF BOUNDARY AS LOW LEVEL JET WILL PULL WARMER
AIR NORTHWARD. LOW AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESS QUICKLY RISE TO LEVELS
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS
CORRECT...THIS WARMING MAY ENVELOP THE WHOLE AREA. TEMPERATURE
WILL RISE THURSDAY...BUT WITH A VERY COLD GROUND AND LARGE SNOW
PACK THE SURFACE ITSELF WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND. THERE IS A HIGH
THREAT THURSDAY FOR A PERIOD OF ICE ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA. THE
REAL HEADACHE COMES FROM THE FACT THAT SENSORS MAY SHOW TEMPS
ABOVE 32...BUT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED GROUND CONDITIONS...RAIN
WILL FREEZE AS IT CONTACTS THE SURFACE. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
GFS AND NAM FOR PRECIP TYPE...BUT THE KEY WILL BE TO FIGURE OUT
THE SURFACE TEMPS...WHICH WILL BE NO EASY TASK.

COLD FRONT QUICKLY CLEARS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE REGION. LOW AND MID-LEVEL
THICKNESS QUICKLY RESPOND AND EXPECT AN ATMOSPHERE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ALL SNOW BY 06Z FRIDAY. BY THIS TIME...MOST...IF NOT ALL
OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...WITH STRONG CAA AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVEN WITH
LOWERING INVERSIONS AND A FROZEN LAKE ERIE. SNOW GROWTH ZONES RAPIDLY
DROP FRIDAY...SO UNTIL THE LOWER LAYERS DRY OUT...THE THREAT FOR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL FOCUS
HIGHEST POPS ON THE RIDGES AND FAR NORTH.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY TO OCCUR IN THE EARLY MORNING WITH A
STEADY DECLINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES WL BRING VFR CONDS THRU TNGT. LOW PRES ADVNG ACRS THE GT
LKS IS EXPD TO BRING MVFR CONDS IN RAIN SHWRS THU S OF I 80...WITH
A WINTRY MIX TO THE N. PCPN SHOULD START FM LT MRNG INTO ERLY AFTN
W OF PIT...WITH A MD AFTN ARRIVAL E OF PIT. IN ADDN...A LLVL JET
SETTING UP FM OH INTO NWRN PA IS EXPD TO BRING LLWS TO ZZV THU
MRNG. WITH MXG EXPG SFC GUSTS AT FKL AND DUJ INSTEAD OF LLWS.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY THRU ERLY FRI AS A CDFNT EXITS. WDSRPD RSTRNS
ARE LIKELY AGAIN WITH ADVNG LOW PRES SUN AND MON.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281707
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1207 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CROSSING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR ALTERATIONS WERE NEEDED FOR THE EARLY AFTN AS COLD HIGH
PRES HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED THE CLDS AND FLURRIES.

RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND WAA WILL BE ONGOING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK. TEMPS WILL START
TO SLOWLY RISE AS DAYBREAK APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. NEXT SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY MORNING
REACHING WESTERN OHIO BY MIDDAY. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN THE FORECAST GETS REAL TRICKY.
WAA CONTINUES AHEAD OF BOUNDARY AS LOW LEVEL JET WILL PULL WARMER
AIR NORTHWARD. LOW AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESS QUICKLY RISE TO LEVELS
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS
CORRECT...THIS WARMING MAY ENVELOP THE WHOLE AREA. TEMPERATURE
WILL RISE THURSDAY...BUT WITH A VERY COLD GROUND AND LARGE SNOW
PACK THE SURFACE ITSELF WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND. THERE IS A HIGH
THREAT THURSDAY FOR A PERIOD OF ICE ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA. THE
REAL HEADACHE COMES FROM THE FACT THAT SENSORS MAY SHOW TEMPS
ABOVE 32...BUT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED GROUND CONDITIONS...RAIN
WILL FREEZE AS IT CONTACTS THE SURFACE. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
GFS AND NAM FOR PRECIP TYPE...BUT THE KEY WILL BE TO FIGURE OUT
THE SURFACE TEMPS...WHICH WILL BE NO EASY TASK.

COLD FRONT QUICKLY CLEARS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE REGION. LOW AND MID-LEVEL
THICKNESS QUICKLY RESPOND AND EXPECT AN ATMOSPHERE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ALL SNOW BY 06Z FRIDAY. BY THIS TIME...MOST...IF NOT ALL
OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...WITH STRONG CAA AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVEN WITH
LOWERING INVERSIONS AND A FROZEN LAKE ERIE. SNOW GROWTH ZONES RAPIDLY
DROP FRIDAY...SO UNTIL THE LOWER LAYERS DRY OUT...THE THREAT FOR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL FOCUS
HIGHEST POPS ON THE RIDGES AND FAR NORTH.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY TO OCCUR IN THE EARLY MORNING WITH A
STEADY DECLINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES WL BRING VFR CONDS THRU TNGT. LOW PRES ADVNG ACRS THE GT
LKS IS EXPD TO BRING MVFR CONDS IN RAIN SHWRS THU S OF I 80...WITH
A WINTRY MIX TO THE N. PCPN SHOULD START FM LT MRNG INTO ERLY AFTN
W OF PIT...WITH A MD AFTN ARRIVAL E OF PIT. IN ADDN...A LLVL JET
SETTING UP FM OH INTO NWRN PA IS EXPD TO BRING LLWS TO ZZV THU
MRNG. WITH MXG EXPG SFC GUSTS AT FKL AND DUJ INSTEAD OF LLWS.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY THRU ERLY FRI AS A CDFNT EXITS. WDSRPD RSTRNS
ARE LIKELY AGAIN WITH ADVNG LOW PRES SUN AND MON.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281707
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1207 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CROSSING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR ALTERATIONS WERE NEEDED FOR THE EARLY AFTN AS COLD HIGH
PRES HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED THE CLDS AND FLURRIES.

RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND WAA WILL BE ONGOING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK. TEMPS WILL START
TO SLOWLY RISE AS DAYBREAK APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. NEXT SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY MORNING
REACHING WESTERN OHIO BY MIDDAY. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN THE FORECAST GETS REAL TRICKY.
WAA CONTINUES AHEAD OF BOUNDARY AS LOW LEVEL JET WILL PULL WARMER
AIR NORTHWARD. LOW AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESS QUICKLY RISE TO LEVELS
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS
CORRECT...THIS WARMING MAY ENVELOP THE WHOLE AREA. TEMPERATURE
WILL RISE THURSDAY...BUT WITH A VERY COLD GROUND AND LARGE SNOW
PACK THE SURFACE ITSELF WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND. THERE IS A HIGH
THREAT THURSDAY FOR A PERIOD OF ICE ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA. THE
REAL HEADACHE COMES FROM THE FACT THAT SENSORS MAY SHOW TEMPS
ABOVE 32...BUT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED GROUND CONDITIONS...RAIN
WILL FREEZE AS IT CONTACTS THE SURFACE. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
GFS AND NAM FOR PRECIP TYPE...BUT THE KEY WILL BE TO FIGURE OUT
THE SURFACE TEMPS...WHICH WILL BE NO EASY TASK.

COLD FRONT QUICKLY CLEARS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE REGION. LOW AND MID-LEVEL
THICKNESS QUICKLY RESPOND AND EXPECT AN ATMOSPHERE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ALL SNOW BY 06Z FRIDAY. BY THIS TIME...MOST...IF NOT ALL
OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...WITH STRONG CAA AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVEN WITH
LOWERING INVERSIONS AND A FROZEN LAKE ERIE. SNOW GROWTH ZONES RAPIDLY
DROP FRIDAY...SO UNTIL THE LOWER LAYERS DRY OUT...THE THREAT FOR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL FOCUS
HIGHEST POPS ON THE RIDGES AND FAR NORTH.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY TO OCCUR IN THE EARLY MORNING WITH A
STEADY DECLINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES WL BRING VFR CONDS THRU TNGT. LOW PRES ADVNG ACRS THE GT
LKS IS EXPD TO BRING MVFR CONDS IN RAIN SHWRS THU S OF I 80...WITH
A WINTRY MIX TO THE N. PCPN SHOULD START FM LT MRNG INTO ERLY AFTN
W OF PIT...WITH A MD AFTN ARRIVAL E OF PIT. IN ADDN...A LLVL JET
SETTING UP FM OH INTO NWRN PA IS EXPD TO BRING LLWS TO ZZV THU
MRNG. WITH MXG EXPG SFC GUSTS AT FKL AND DUJ INSTEAD OF LLWS.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY THRU ERLY FRI AS A CDFNT EXITS. WDSRPD RSTRNS
ARE LIKELY AGAIN WITH ADVNG LOW PRES SUN AND MON.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07





000
FXUS61 KLWX 281525 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1025 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING
OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUITE A DIFFERENT DAY TODAY THAN THE PAST COUPLE...AS THE ACTIVE
LATE JAN CONTINUES. TODAY IS THE ONE-DAY REPRIEVE...IN TERMS OF
CLOUDS AND PRECIP AT LEAST. CLEAR SKIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WHICH
ONE THE HAND WILL HELP OUR TEMPS QUICKLY CLIMB OUT OF A DEEP
FREEZE FROM OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS BUT ALSO IS EVIDENCE THAT
SUBSIDENCE IS IN CONTROL AND EFFICIENTLY DROPPING GUSTY AND COLD
LOW LEVEL WINDS DOWN TO THE SFC. SO DESPITE AMPLE SUN...IT OUR
WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S THROUGHOUT
THE DAYTIME HRS. VIS SATELLITE SHOWS THE NRN AND WRN HALVES OF THE
CWA UNDER DECENT SNOW COVER...WHICH WILL KEEP A BIT OF A LID OF
TEMPS TODAY.

THE GUSTY WINDS OF THIS AFTN WILL SUBSIDE INTO THE LATE EVE HRS.
COMBINE THE CLEAR SKIES W/ VERY LOW DEWPOINTS HOWEVER AND AIR
TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN CRASH DOWN INTO THE 20S AND TEENS OVER THE
NRN TIER AND THE APLCNS. WINDS CHILLS WON`T BE AS CHILLY OVERNIGHT
AS WINDS SUBSIDE W/ HIGH PRESSURE ROLLING OVER THE REGION TO THE
NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT
CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY
FOR THIS CLIPPER TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION LATER THURSDAY
BUT NONETHELESS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DURING
THE DAY. MARGINAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. UPSLOPE SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. TO THE EAST...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT MILDER AND WE HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE POTENTIAL FOR A
WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW DURING THE DAY GENERALLY N AND W OF
WASHINGTON DC. AREAS TO THE SOUTH WILL SEE MOSTLY LIQUID. THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING P-TYPES. EITHER WAY...QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHT. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S NORTH AND UPPER 30S SOUTH WILL BE COMMON.

LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA.
MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH...BUT THERE CAN
BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO THE MASON-DIXON LINE
WHERE PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY AND TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
FREEZING.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER A RETURN OF COLD AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY WHILE LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...BUT
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THIS TIME. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND AND THE
APPROACHING HIGH WILL BE QUITE STRONG...RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS.
WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CAUSE STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND THIS MAY
COMBINE WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS.
DO FEEL THAT THE AIRMASS WILL BE TOO DRY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACROSS MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A
FEW BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS THAT COULD LEAVE A QUICK
COATING ALONG WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS
TO HAPPEN WOULD BE ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND INTO THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA...CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND GUSTY WINDS
FRIDAY EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE QUITE
COLD WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN NORTHERN
MARYLAND TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TEENS IN WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
THIS SYSTEM MAY CUT TO OUR WEST UP THE APPALACHIANS...AND IF IT
DOES THERE WILL BE WARMER AIR THAT GETS DRAWN INTO THE
SYSTEM. THIS WOULD CAUSE RAIN OR A WINTRY MIX...DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. THESE DETAILS REMAIN
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME SO PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS FOR UPDATES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WITH
DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY. SUB-VFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED WITH
A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AT LEAST FOR KMRB...KBWI...KMTN...
KIAD DURING THE DAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS THURSDAY NIGHT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. GUSTS AROUND
40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE TERMINALS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO DIMINISH. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT
THE TERMINALS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED MUCH OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. THE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN LATER IN THE DAY WITH SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED THURSDAY MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
UPPER PORTION OF THE BAY WITH RAIN SOUTH.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS THURSDAY NIGHT. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE WATERS.
STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A
GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-538>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...KRW/BJL









000
FXUS61 KLWX 281525 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1025 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING
OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUITE A DIFFERENT DAY TODAY THAN THE PAST COUPLE...AS THE ACTIVE
LATE JAN CONTINUES. TODAY IS THE ONE-DAY REPRIEVE...IN TERMS OF
CLOUDS AND PRECIP AT LEAST. CLEAR SKIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WHICH
ONE THE HAND WILL HELP OUR TEMPS QUICKLY CLIMB OUT OF A DEEP
FREEZE FROM OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS BUT ALSO IS EVIDENCE THAT
SUBSIDENCE IS IN CONTROL AND EFFICIENTLY DROPPING GUSTY AND COLD
LOW LEVEL WINDS DOWN TO THE SFC. SO DESPITE AMPLE SUN...IT OUR
WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S THROUGHOUT
THE DAYTIME HRS. VIS SATELLITE SHOWS THE NRN AND WRN HALVES OF THE
CWA UNDER DECENT SNOW COVER...WHICH WILL KEEP A BIT OF A LID OF
TEMPS TODAY.

THE GUSTY WINDS OF THIS AFTN WILL SUBSIDE INTO THE LATE EVE HRS.
COMBINE THE CLEAR SKIES W/ VERY LOW DEWPOINTS HOWEVER AND AIR
TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN CRASH DOWN INTO THE 20S AND TEENS OVER THE
NRN TIER AND THE APLCNS. WINDS CHILLS WON`T BE AS CHILLY OVERNIGHT
AS WINDS SUBSIDE W/ HIGH PRESSURE ROLLING OVER THE REGION TO THE
NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT
CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY
FOR THIS CLIPPER TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION LATER THURSDAY
BUT NONETHELESS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DURING
THE DAY. MARGINAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. UPSLOPE SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. TO THE EAST...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT MILDER AND WE HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE POTENTIAL FOR A
WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW DURING THE DAY GENERALLY N AND W OF
WASHINGTON DC. AREAS TO THE SOUTH WILL SEE MOSTLY LIQUID. THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING P-TYPES. EITHER WAY...QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHT. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S NORTH AND UPPER 30S SOUTH WILL BE COMMON.

LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA.
MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH...BUT THERE CAN
BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO THE MASON-DIXON LINE
WHERE PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY AND TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
FREEZING.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER A RETURN OF COLD AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY WHILE LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...BUT
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THIS TIME. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND AND THE
APPROACHING HIGH WILL BE QUITE STRONG...RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS.
WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CAUSE STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND THIS MAY
COMBINE WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS.
DO FEEL THAT THE AIRMASS WILL BE TOO DRY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACROSS MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A
FEW BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS THAT COULD LEAVE A QUICK
COATING ALONG WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS
TO HAPPEN WOULD BE ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND INTO THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA...CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND GUSTY WINDS
FRIDAY EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE QUITE
COLD WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN NORTHERN
MARYLAND TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TEENS IN WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
THIS SYSTEM MAY CUT TO OUR WEST UP THE APPALACHIANS...AND IF IT
DOES THERE WILL BE WARMER AIR THAT GETS DRAWN INTO THE
SYSTEM. THIS WOULD CAUSE RAIN OR A WINTRY MIX...DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. THESE DETAILS REMAIN
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME SO PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS FOR UPDATES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WITH
DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY. SUB-VFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED WITH
A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AT LEAST FOR KMRB...KBWI...KMTN...
KIAD DURING THE DAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS THURSDAY NIGHT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. GUSTS AROUND
40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE TERMINALS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO DIMINISH. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT
THE TERMINALS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED MUCH OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. THE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN LATER IN THE DAY WITH SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED THURSDAY MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
UPPER PORTION OF THE BAY WITH RAIN SOUTH.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS THURSDAY NIGHT. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE WATERS.
STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A
GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-538>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...KRW/BJL










000
FXUS61 KPHI 281445
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
945 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AND CAUSE AN ARCTIC FRONT TO CROSS OUR REGION. MORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A STORM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AFFECT THE AREA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS PRESENTLY CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS PRODUCING A SUSTAINED
NORTHWEST OF 10-20 MPH WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC. THE GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH FAIRLY COLD TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER OUTSIDE.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTANT WIND FIELD WILL GRADUALLY
RELAX THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE COASTAL LOW
WEAKENS TO OUR NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. FULL SUNSHINE AND ADIABATIC WARMING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD ALL HELP MODERATE THE AIRMASS A BIT.

NONETHELESS, WE ARE IN STORE FOR ANOTHER COLDER THAN NORMAL DAY.
FOR THE MAX TEMP FORECAST, TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE
AND EVEN ABOVE GUIDANCE IN SOME PLACES AFTER FACTORING A 2-3F
DEGREE MODEL COLD BIAS YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
HEIGHT RISES WILL OCCUR ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER RIDGE PROGRESSES EASTWARD. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVERHEAD DURING
THE OVERNIGHT.

MIN TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN
DECOUPLE. ONCE DECOUPLING HAPPENS, AIRMASS WILL RADIATE QUITE
EFFECTIVELY UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. THE OFFICIAL MIN TEMP
FORECAST IS ON THE COLD ENVELOPE OF MODEL GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP AND WITH A FRESH SNOWPACK. MIN
TEMPS ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND EAST OF I-95 AND LOW TO MID
TEENS IN THE CITIES AND ALONG THE COAST/DELMARVA WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TAKE THE LONGEST TO WEAKEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THU THRU FRIDAY...A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THU MORNING WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THU NIGHT
AND THEN DEEPEN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A
WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS MOSTLY THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
POPS WERE RAISED A BIT WITH BOTH THE EC AND GFS MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT. THE GFS 00Z IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES IN THE (MOSTLY LIKELY) PRECIPITATION AREAS SUPPORT SNOW
WITH AMTS PROBABLY IN THE 1 INCH RANGE IN MOST AREAS. A COUPLE 2
INCH AMTS POSSIBLE FAR NORTH OVER NRN NJ OR THE SRN POCONOS. WE HAVE
GONE ALONG WITH THE TOTALS WHICH ARE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST WWD.
WINDS AND BECOMING VERY COLD LATER FRIDAY WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND TEENS OVER PHL AND DELMARVA BY
EVENING.

FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND REMAINS FOR
THE WEEKEND. BITTER COLD SAT WITH TEMPS SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS SUN...BUT STILL MOSTLY 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FLAGS FOR WIND CHILL POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT AND
SAT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

SUN AFTERNOON THRU MON NIGHT...MORE WEATHER ACTION AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM EMERGES FROM THE ROCKIES SAT NIGHT THEN TRACKS UP THE OHIO
VALLEY AND ACROSS OUR AREA SUN NIGHT/MONDAY. THE SYSTEM IS SHOWN
SCOOPING UP PLENTY OF MOISTURE BEFORE IT ARRIVES. THE GFS SHOWS A
TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...THE EC JUST SOUTH. TEMPS AND POPS
MOSTLY WPC LIKE WITH A FEW ADJUSTMENTS FOR BETTER ISC COORDINATION.
CHC SNOW SUN AFTERNOON...THEN LIKELY SNOW SUN NIGHT. SNOW CHANGES TO
RAIN S/E I-95 MONDAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF REFINEMENTS...SO THIS
IS THE BEST FCST FOR NOW. PAY ATTENTION TO THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

TUE...ANOTHER DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER PLUNGE OF
ARCTIC AIR FOR TUE AND PROBABLY INTO WED. TEMPS POSSIBLY 10 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. NW WINDS 10-15 KT WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT THIS
MORNING AND 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THU...MOSTLY VFR. LOWER CONDITIONS WITH SNOW POSSIBLE WEST LATE.

THU NIGHT THRU FRI...LOWER CONDITIONS WITH PCPN THU NIGHT. LINGERING
SHOWERS EARLY FRI WITH GUSTY WINDS.

FRI NIGHT THRU SUN...MOSTLY VFR. SMALL CHC FOR SNOW SUN AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA WATERS TODAY. ONLY CHANGE WAS
TO EXTEND THE ENDING TIME OF THE SCA FOR THE DE BAY TO 6 PM
(MATCHING THE ENDING TIME OF THE COASTAL WATERS) AS THE NW
DIRECTION WILL CHANNEL DOWN THE BAY, ENHANCING WIND SPEEDS TO NEAR
25 KT. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE VERIFIED 1-2 FT TOO LOW WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS IN THE COASTAL ZONES, SO INCREASED SEAS A BIT TO 5-8 FT
FOR THIS MORNING.

NW WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT. NO MARINE HAZARDS ARE
EXPECTED OTHER THAN LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.
THU NIGHT...BUILDING WINDS/SEAS SCA CONDITIONS.
FRI/FRI NIGHT...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
SAT...GALE CONDITIONS DIMINISHING BACK TO SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 281445
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
945 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AND CAUSE AN ARCTIC FRONT TO CROSS OUR REGION. MORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A STORM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AFFECT THE AREA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS PRESENTLY CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS PRODUCING A SUSTAINED
NORTHWEST OF 10-20 MPH WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC. THE GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH FAIRLY COLD TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER OUTSIDE.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTANT WIND FIELD WILL GRADUALLY
RELAX THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE COASTAL LOW
WEAKENS TO OUR NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. FULL SUNSHINE AND ADIABATIC WARMING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD ALL HELP MODERATE THE AIRMASS A BIT.

NONETHELESS, WE ARE IN STORE FOR ANOTHER COLDER THAN NORMAL DAY.
FOR THE MAX TEMP FORECAST, TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE
AND EVEN ABOVE GUIDANCE IN SOME PLACES AFTER FACTORING A 2-3F
DEGREE MODEL COLD BIAS YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
HEIGHT RISES WILL OCCUR ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER RIDGE PROGRESSES EASTWARD. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVERHEAD DURING
THE OVERNIGHT.

MIN TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN
DECOUPLE. ONCE DECOUPLING HAPPENS, AIRMASS WILL RADIATE QUITE
EFFECTIVELY UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. THE OFFICIAL MIN TEMP
FORECAST IS ON THE COLD ENVELOPE OF MODEL GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP AND WITH A FRESH SNOWPACK. MIN
TEMPS ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND EAST OF I-95 AND LOW TO MID
TEENS IN THE CITIES AND ALONG THE COAST/DELMARVA WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TAKE THE LONGEST TO WEAKEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THU THRU FRIDAY...A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THU MORNING WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THU NIGHT
AND THEN DEEPEN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A
WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS MOSTLY THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
POPS WERE RAISED A BIT WITH BOTH THE EC AND GFS MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT. THE GFS 00Z IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES IN THE (MOSTLY LIKELY) PRECIPITATION AREAS SUPPORT SNOW
WITH AMTS PROBABLY IN THE 1 INCH RANGE IN MOST AREAS. A COUPLE 2
INCH AMTS POSSIBLE FAR NORTH OVER NRN NJ OR THE SRN POCONOS. WE HAVE
GONE ALONG WITH THE TOTALS WHICH ARE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST WWD.
WINDS AND BECOMING VERY COLD LATER FRIDAY WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND TEENS OVER PHL AND DELMARVA BY
EVENING.

FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND REMAINS FOR
THE WEEKEND. BITTER COLD SAT WITH TEMPS SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS SUN...BUT STILL MOSTLY 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FLAGS FOR WIND CHILL POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT AND
SAT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

SUN AFTERNOON THRU MON NIGHT...MORE WEATHER ACTION AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM EMERGES FROM THE ROCKIES SAT NIGHT THEN TRACKS UP THE OHIO
VALLEY AND ACROSS OUR AREA SUN NIGHT/MONDAY. THE SYSTEM IS SHOWN
SCOOPING UP PLENTY OF MOISTURE BEFORE IT ARRIVES. THE GFS SHOWS A
TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...THE EC JUST SOUTH. TEMPS AND POPS
MOSTLY WPC LIKE WITH A FEW ADJUSTMENTS FOR BETTER ISC COORDINATION.
CHC SNOW SUN AFTERNOON...THEN LIKELY SNOW SUN NIGHT. SNOW CHANGES TO
RAIN S/E I-95 MONDAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF REFINEMENTS...SO THIS
IS THE BEST FCST FOR NOW. PAY ATTENTION TO THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

TUE...ANOTHER DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER PLUNGE OF
ARCTIC AIR FOR TUE AND PROBABLY INTO WED. TEMPS POSSIBLY 10 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. NW WINDS 10-15 KT WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT THIS
MORNING AND 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THU...MOSTLY VFR. LOWER CONDITIONS WITH SNOW POSSIBLE WEST LATE.

THU NIGHT THRU FRI...LOWER CONDITIONS WITH PCPN THU NIGHT. LINGERING
SHOWERS EARLY FRI WITH GUSTY WINDS.

FRI NIGHT THRU SUN...MOSTLY VFR. SMALL CHC FOR SNOW SUN AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA WATERS TODAY. ONLY CHANGE WAS
TO EXTEND THE ENDING TIME OF THE SCA FOR THE DE BAY TO 6 PM
(MATCHING THE ENDING TIME OF THE COASTAL WATERS) AS THE NW
DIRECTION WILL CHANNEL DOWN THE BAY, ENHANCING WIND SPEEDS TO NEAR
25 KT. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE VERIFIED 1-2 FT TOO LOW WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS IN THE COASTAL ZONES, SO INCREASED SEAS A BIT TO 5-8 FT
FOR THIS MORNING.

NW WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT. NO MARINE HAZARDS ARE
EXPECTED OTHER THAN LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.
THU NIGHT...BUILDING WINDS/SEAS SCA CONDITIONS.
FRI/FRI NIGHT...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
SAT...GALE CONDITIONS DIMINISHING BACK TO SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 281445
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
945 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AND CAUSE AN ARCTIC FRONT TO CROSS OUR REGION. MORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A STORM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AFFECT THE AREA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS PRESENTLY CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS PRODUCING A SUSTAINED
NORTHWEST OF 10-20 MPH WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC. THE GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH FAIRLY COLD TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER OUTSIDE.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTANT WIND FIELD WILL GRADUALLY
RELAX THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE COASTAL LOW
WEAKENS TO OUR NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. FULL SUNSHINE AND ADIABATIC WARMING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD ALL HELP MODERATE THE AIRMASS A BIT.

NONETHELESS, WE ARE IN STORE FOR ANOTHER COLDER THAN NORMAL DAY.
FOR THE MAX TEMP FORECAST, TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE
AND EVEN ABOVE GUIDANCE IN SOME PLACES AFTER FACTORING A 2-3F
DEGREE MODEL COLD BIAS YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
HEIGHT RISES WILL OCCUR ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER RIDGE PROGRESSES EASTWARD. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVERHEAD DURING
THE OVERNIGHT.

MIN TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN
DECOUPLE. ONCE DECOUPLING HAPPENS, AIRMASS WILL RADIATE QUITE
EFFECTIVELY UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. THE OFFICIAL MIN TEMP
FORECAST IS ON THE COLD ENVELOPE OF MODEL GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP AND WITH A FRESH SNOWPACK. MIN
TEMPS ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND EAST OF I-95 AND LOW TO MID
TEENS IN THE CITIES AND ALONG THE COAST/DELMARVA WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TAKE THE LONGEST TO WEAKEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THU THRU FRIDAY...A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THU MORNING WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THU NIGHT
AND THEN DEEPEN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A
WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS MOSTLY THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
POPS WERE RAISED A BIT WITH BOTH THE EC AND GFS MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT. THE GFS 00Z IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES IN THE (MOSTLY LIKELY) PRECIPITATION AREAS SUPPORT SNOW
WITH AMTS PROBABLY IN THE 1 INCH RANGE IN MOST AREAS. A COUPLE 2
INCH AMTS POSSIBLE FAR NORTH OVER NRN NJ OR THE SRN POCONOS. WE HAVE
GONE ALONG WITH THE TOTALS WHICH ARE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST WWD.
WINDS AND BECOMING VERY COLD LATER FRIDAY WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND TEENS OVER PHL AND DELMARVA BY
EVENING.

FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND REMAINS FOR
THE WEEKEND. BITTER COLD SAT WITH TEMPS SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS SUN...BUT STILL MOSTLY 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FLAGS FOR WIND CHILL POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT AND
SAT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

SUN AFTERNOON THRU MON NIGHT...MORE WEATHER ACTION AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM EMERGES FROM THE ROCKIES SAT NIGHT THEN TRACKS UP THE OHIO
VALLEY AND ACROSS OUR AREA SUN NIGHT/MONDAY. THE SYSTEM IS SHOWN
SCOOPING UP PLENTY OF MOISTURE BEFORE IT ARRIVES. THE GFS SHOWS A
TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...THE EC JUST SOUTH. TEMPS AND POPS
MOSTLY WPC LIKE WITH A FEW ADJUSTMENTS FOR BETTER ISC COORDINATION.
CHC SNOW SUN AFTERNOON...THEN LIKELY SNOW SUN NIGHT. SNOW CHANGES TO
RAIN S/E I-95 MONDAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF REFINEMENTS...SO THIS
IS THE BEST FCST FOR NOW. PAY ATTENTION TO THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

TUE...ANOTHER DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER PLUNGE OF
ARCTIC AIR FOR TUE AND PROBABLY INTO WED. TEMPS POSSIBLY 10 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. NW WINDS 10-15 KT WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT THIS
MORNING AND 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THU...MOSTLY VFR. LOWER CONDITIONS WITH SNOW POSSIBLE WEST LATE.

THU NIGHT THRU FRI...LOWER CONDITIONS WITH PCPN THU NIGHT. LINGERING
SHOWERS EARLY FRI WITH GUSTY WINDS.

FRI NIGHT THRU SUN...MOSTLY VFR. SMALL CHC FOR SNOW SUN AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA WATERS TODAY. ONLY CHANGE WAS
TO EXTEND THE ENDING TIME OF THE SCA FOR THE DE BAY TO 6 PM
(MATCHING THE ENDING TIME OF THE COASTAL WATERS) AS THE NW
DIRECTION WILL CHANNEL DOWN THE BAY, ENHANCING WIND SPEEDS TO NEAR
25 KT. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE VERIFIED 1-2 FT TOO LOW WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS IN THE COASTAL ZONES, SO INCREASED SEAS A BIT TO 5-8 FT
FOR THIS MORNING.

NW WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT. NO MARINE HAZARDS ARE
EXPECTED OTHER THAN LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.
THU NIGHT...BUILDING WINDS/SEAS SCA CONDITIONS.
FRI/FRI NIGHT...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
SAT...GALE CONDITIONS DIMINISHING BACK TO SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 281445
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
945 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AND CAUSE AN ARCTIC FRONT TO CROSS OUR REGION. MORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A STORM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AFFECT THE AREA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS PRESENTLY CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS PRODUCING A SUSTAINED
NORTHWEST OF 10-20 MPH WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC. THE GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH FAIRLY COLD TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER OUTSIDE.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTANT WIND FIELD WILL GRADUALLY
RELAX THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE COASTAL LOW
WEAKENS TO OUR NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. FULL SUNSHINE AND ADIABATIC WARMING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD ALL HELP MODERATE THE AIRMASS A BIT.

NONETHELESS, WE ARE IN STORE FOR ANOTHER COLDER THAN NORMAL DAY.
FOR THE MAX TEMP FORECAST, TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE
AND EVEN ABOVE GUIDANCE IN SOME PLACES AFTER FACTORING A 2-3F
DEGREE MODEL COLD BIAS YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
HEIGHT RISES WILL OCCUR ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER RIDGE PROGRESSES EASTWARD. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVERHEAD DURING
THE OVERNIGHT.

MIN TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN
DECOUPLE. ONCE DECOUPLING HAPPENS, AIRMASS WILL RADIATE QUITE
EFFECTIVELY UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. THE OFFICIAL MIN TEMP
FORECAST IS ON THE COLD ENVELOPE OF MODEL GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP AND WITH A FRESH SNOWPACK. MIN
TEMPS ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND EAST OF I-95 AND LOW TO MID
TEENS IN THE CITIES AND ALONG THE COAST/DELMARVA WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TAKE THE LONGEST TO WEAKEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THU THRU FRIDAY...A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THU MORNING WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THU NIGHT
AND THEN DEEPEN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A
WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS MOSTLY THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
POPS WERE RAISED A BIT WITH BOTH THE EC AND GFS MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT. THE GFS 00Z IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES IN THE (MOSTLY LIKELY) PRECIPITATION AREAS SUPPORT SNOW
WITH AMTS PROBABLY IN THE 1 INCH RANGE IN MOST AREAS. A COUPLE 2
INCH AMTS POSSIBLE FAR NORTH OVER NRN NJ OR THE SRN POCONOS. WE HAVE
GONE ALONG WITH THE TOTALS WHICH ARE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST WWD.
WINDS AND BECOMING VERY COLD LATER FRIDAY WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND TEENS OVER PHL AND DELMARVA BY
EVENING.

FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND REMAINS FOR
THE WEEKEND. BITTER COLD SAT WITH TEMPS SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS SUN...BUT STILL MOSTLY 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FLAGS FOR WIND CHILL POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT AND
SAT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

SUN AFTERNOON THRU MON NIGHT...MORE WEATHER ACTION AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM EMERGES FROM THE ROCKIES SAT NIGHT THEN TRACKS UP THE OHIO
VALLEY AND ACROSS OUR AREA SUN NIGHT/MONDAY. THE SYSTEM IS SHOWN
SCOOPING UP PLENTY OF MOISTURE BEFORE IT ARRIVES. THE GFS SHOWS A
TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...THE EC JUST SOUTH. TEMPS AND POPS
MOSTLY WPC LIKE WITH A FEW ADJUSTMENTS FOR BETTER ISC COORDINATION.
CHC SNOW SUN AFTERNOON...THEN LIKELY SNOW SUN NIGHT. SNOW CHANGES TO
RAIN S/E I-95 MONDAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF REFINEMENTS...SO THIS
IS THE BEST FCST FOR NOW. PAY ATTENTION TO THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

TUE...ANOTHER DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER PLUNGE OF
ARCTIC AIR FOR TUE AND PROBABLY INTO WED. TEMPS POSSIBLY 10 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. NW WINDS 10-15 KT WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT THIS
MORNING AND 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THU...MOSTLY VFR. LOWER CONDITIONS WITH SNOW POSSIBLE WEST LATE.

THU NIGHT THRU FRI...LOWER CONDITIONS WITH PCPN THU NIGHT. LINGERING
SHOWERS EARLY FRI WITH GUSTY WINDS.

FRI NIGHT THRU SUN...MOSTLY VFR. SMALL CHC FOR SNOW SUN AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA WATERS TODAY. ONLY CHANGE WAS
TO EXTEND THE ENDING TIME OF THE SCA FOR THE DE BAY TO 6 PM
(MATCHING THE ENDING TIME OF THE COASTAL WATERS) AS THE NW
DIRECTION WILL CHANNEL DOWN THE BAY, ENHANCING WIND SPEEDS TO NEAR
25 KT. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE VERIFIED 1-2 FT TOO LOW WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS IN THE COASTAL ZONES, SO INCREASED SEAS A BIT TO 5-8 FT
FOR THIS MORNING.

NW WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT. NO MARINE HAZARDS ARE
EXPECTED OTHER THAN LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.
THU NIGHT...BUILDING WINDS/SEAS SCA CONDITIONS.
FRI/FRI NIGHT...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
SAT...GALE CONDITIONS DIMINISHING BACK TO SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281251
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
751 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY BUT COLD DAY. CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO MAJOR ALTERATIONS WERE NEEDED FOR THE DAWN UPDATE WITH POCKETS
OF CLDS AND FLURRIES EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DISSIPATE.

PREVIOUS...
STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AND SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE...BUT IT WILL STILL BE PLENTY COLD HERE. WOULD EXPECT TO
SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SOUTHWARD UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.

EVEN WITH SUNSHINE TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND WAA WILL BE ONGOING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK. TEMPS WILL START
TO SLOWLY RISE AS DAYBREAK APPROACHES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. NEXT SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY MORNING
REACHING WESTERN OHIO BY MIDDAY. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN THE FORECAST GETS REAL TRICKY.
WAA CONTINUES AHEAD OF BOUNDARY AS LOW LEVEL JET WILL PULL WARMER
AIR NORTHWARD. LOW AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESS QUICKLY RISE TO LEVELS
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS
CORRECT...THIS WARMING MAY ENVELOP THE WHOLE AREA. TEMPERATURE
WILL RISE THURSDAY...BUT WITH A VERY COLD GROUND AND LARGE SNOW
PACK THE SURFACE ITSELF WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND. THERE IS A HIGH
THREAT THURSDAY FOR A PERIOD OF ICE ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA. THE
REAL HEADACHE COMES FROM THE FACT THAT SENSORS MAY SHOW TEMPS
ABOVE 32...BUT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED GROUND CONDITIONS...RAIN
WILL FREEZE AS IT CONTACTS THE SURFACE. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
GFS AND NAM FOR PRECIP TYPE...BUT THE KEY WILL BE TO FIGURE OUT
THE SURFACE TEMPS...WHICH WILL BE NO EASY TASK.

COLD FRONT QUICKLY CLEARS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE REGION. LOW AND MID-LEVEL
THICKNESS QUICKLY RESPOND AND EXPECT AN ATMOSPHERE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ALL SNOW BY 06Z FRIDAY. BY THIS TIME...MOST...IF NOT ALL
OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...WITH STRONG CAA AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVEN WITH
LOWERING INVERSIONS AND A FROZEN LAKE ERIE. SNOW GROWTH ZONES RAPIDLY
DROP FRIDAY...SO UNTIL THE LOWER LAYERS DRY OUT...THE THREAT FOR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL FOCUS
HIGHEST POPS ON THE RIDGES AND FAR NORTH.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY TO OCCUR IN THE EARLY MORNING WITH A
STEADY DECLINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR/ISOLD IFR CIGS ARE EXPD TO DSPT THIS MRNG AS SBDNC
INCRS UNDER BLDG HIGH PRES. VFR SHOULD CONT INTO ERLY THU UNTIL
LOW PRES BRINGS RSTRNS AND A WINTRY MIX OF PCPN.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY THRU ERLY FRI AS A CDFNT EXITS. RSTRNS ARE
LIKELY AGAIN WITH ADVNG LOW PRES ON SUN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281251
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
751 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY BUT COLD DAY. CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO MAJOR ALTERATIONS WERE NEEDED FOR THE DAWN UPDATE WITH POCKETS
OF CLDS AND FLURRIES EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DISSIPATE.

PREVIOUS...
STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AND SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE...BUT IT WILL STILL BE PLENTY COLD HERE. WOULD EXPECT TO
SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SOUTHWARD UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.

EVEN WITH SUNSHINE TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND WAA WILL BE ONGOING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK. TEMPS WILL START
TO SLOWLY RISE AS DAYBREAK APPROACHES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. NEXT SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY MORNING
REACHING WESTERN OHIO BY MIDDAY. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN THE FORECAST GETS REAL TRICKY.
WAA CONTINUES AHEAD OF BOUNDARY AS LOW LEVEL JET WILL PULL WARMER
AIR NORTHWARD. LOW AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESS QUICKLY RISE TO LEVELS
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS
CORRECT...THIS WARMING MAY ENVELOP THE WHOLE AREA. TEMPERATURE
WILL RISE THURSDAY...BUT WITH A VERY COLD GROUND AND LARGE SNOW
PACK THE SURFACE ITSELF WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND. THERE IS A HIGH
THREAT THURSDAY FOR A PERIOD OF ICE ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA. THE
REAL HEADACHE COMES FROM THE FACT THAT SENSORS MAY SHOW TEMPS
ABOVE 32...BUT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED GROUND CONDITIONS...RAIN
WILL FREEZE AS IT CONTACTS THE SURFACE. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
GFS AND NAM FOR PRECIP TYPE...BUT THE KEY WILL BE TO FIGURE OUT
THE SURFACE TEMPS...WHICH WILL BE NO EASY TASK.

COLD FRONT QUICKLY CLEARS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE REGION. LOW AND MID-LEVEL
THICKNESS QUICKLY RESPOND AND EXPECT AN ATMOSPHERE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ALL SNOW BY 06Z FRIDAY. BY THIS TIME...MOST...IF NOT ALL
OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...WITH STRONG CAA AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVEN WITH
LOWERING INVERSIONS AND A FROZEN LAKE ERIE. SNOW GROWTH ZONES RAPIDLY
DROP FRIDAY...SO UNTIL THE LOWER LAYERS DRY OUT...THE THREAT FOR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL FOCUS
HIGHEST POPS ON THE RIDGES AND FAR NORTH.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY TO OCCUR IN THE EARLY MORNING WITH A
STEADY DECLINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR/ISOLD IFR CIGS ARE EXPD TO DSPT THIS MRNG AS SBDNC
INCRS UNDER BLDG HIGH PRES. VFR SHOULD CONT INTO ERLY THU UNTIL
LOW PRES BRINGS RSTRNS AND A WINTRY MIX OF PCPN.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY THRU ERLY FRI AS A CDFNT EXITS. RSTRNS ARE
LIKELY AGAIN WITH ADVNG LOW PRES ON SUN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281251
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
751 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY BUT COLD DAY. CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO MAJOR ALTERATIONS WERE NEEDED FOR THE DAWN UPDATE WITH POCKETS
OF CLDS AND FLURRIES EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DISSIPATE.

PREVIOUS...
STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AND SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE...BUT IT WILL STILL BE PLENTY COLD HERE. WOULD EXPECT TO
SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SOUTHWARD UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.

EVEN WITH SUNSHINE TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND WAA WILL BE ONGOING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK. TEMPS WILL START
TO SLOWLY RISE AS DAYBREAK APPROACHES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. NEXT SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY MORNING
REACHING WESTERN OHIO BY MIDDAY. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN THE FORECAST GETS REAL TRICKY.
WAA CONTINUES AHEAD OF BOUNDARY AS LOW LEVEL JET WILL PULL WARMER
AIR NORTHWARD. LOW AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESS QUICKLY RISE TO LEVELS
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS
CORRECT...THIS WARMING MAY ENVELOP THE WHOLE AREA. TEMPERATURE
WILL RISE THURSDAY...BUT WITH A VERY COLD GROUND AND LARGE SNOW
PACK THE SURFACE ITSELF WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND. THERE IS A HIGH
THREAT THURSDAY FOR A PERIOD OF ICE ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA. THE
REAL HEADACHE COMES FROM THE FACT THAT SENSORS MAY SHOW TEMPS
ABOVE 32...BUT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED GROUND CONDITIONS...RAIN
WILL FREEZE AS IT CONTACTS THE SURFACE. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
GFS AND NAM FOR PRECIP TYPE...BUT THE KEY WILL BE TO FIGURE OUT
THE SURFACE TEMPS...WHICH WILL BE NO EASY TASK.

COLD FRONT QUICKLY CLEARS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE REGION. LOW AND MID-LEVEL
THICKNESS QUICKLY RESPOND AND EXPECT AN ATMOSPHERE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ALL SNOW BY 06Z FRIDAY. BY THIS TIME...MOST...IF NOT ALL
OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...WITH STRONG CAA AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVEN WITH
LOWERING INVERSIONS AND A FROZEN LAKE ERIE. SNOW GROWTH ZONES RAPIDLY
DROP FRIDAY...SO UNTIL THE LOWER LAYERS DRY OUT...THE THREAT FOR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL FOCUS
HIGHEST POPS ON THE RIDGES AND FAR NORTH.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY TO OCCUR IN THE EARLY MORNING WITH A
STEADY DECLINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR/ISOLD IFR CIGS ARE EXPD TO DSPT THIS MRNG AS SBDNC
INCRS UNDER BLDG HIGH PRES. VFR SHOULD CONT INTO ERLY THU UNTIL
LOW PRES BRINGS RSTRNS AND A WINTRY MIX OF PCPN.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY THRU ERLY FRI AS A CDFNT EXITS. RSTRNS ARE
LIKELY AGAIN WITH ADVNG LOW PRES ON SUN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281251
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
751 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY BUT COLD DAY. CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO MAJOR ALTERATIONS WERE NEEDED FOR THE DAWN UPDATE WITH POCKETS
OF CLDS AND FLURRIES EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DISSIPATE.

PREVIOUS...
STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AND SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE...BUT IT WILL STILL BE PLENTY COLD HERE. WOULD EXPECT TO
SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SOUTHWARD UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.

EVEN WITH SUNSHINE TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND WAA WILL BE ONGOING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK. TEMPS WILL START
TO SLOWLY RISE AS DAYBREAK APPROACHES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. NEXT SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY MORNING
REACHING WESTERN OHIO BY MIDDAY. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN THE FORECAST GETS REAL TRICKY.
WAA CONTINUES AHEAD OF BOUNDARY AS LOW LEVEL JET WILL PULL WARMER
AIR NORTHWARD. LOW AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESS QUICKLY RISE TO LEVELS
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS
CORRECT...THIS WARMING MAY ENVELOP THE WHOLE AREA. TEMPERATURE
WILL RISE THURSDAY...BUT WITH A VERY COLD GROUND AND LARGE SNOW
PACK THE SURFACE ITSELF WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND. THERE IS A HIGH
THREAT THURSDAY FOR A PERIOD OF ICE ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA. THE
REAL HEADACHE COMES FROM THE FACT THAT SENSORS MAY SHOW TEMPS
ABOVE 32...BUT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED GROUND CONDITIONS...RAIN
WILL FREEZE AS IT CONTACTS THE SURFACE. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
GFS AND NAM FOR PRECIP TYPE...BUT THE KEY WILL BE TO FIGURE OUT
THE SURFACE TEMPS...WHICH WILL BE NO EASY TASK.

COLD FRONT QUICKLY CLEARS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE REGION. LOW AND MID-LEVEL
THICKNESS QUICKLY RESPOND AND EXPECT AN ATMOSPHERE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ALL SNOW BY 06Z FRIDAY. BY THIS TIME...MOST...IF NOT ALL
OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...WITH STRONG CAA AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVEN WITH
LOWERING INVERSIONS AND A FROZEN LAKE ERIE. SNOW GROWTH ZONES RAPIDLY
DROP FRIDAY...SO UNTIL THE LOWER LAYERS DRY OUT...THE THREAT FOR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL FOCUS
HIGHEST POPS ON THE RIDGES AND FAR NORTH.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY TO OCCUR IN THE EARLY MORNING WITH A
STEADY DECLINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR/ISOLD IFR CIGS ARE EXPD TO DSPT THIS MRNG AS SBDNC
INCRS UNDER BLDG HIGH PRES. VFR SHOULD CONT INTO ERLY THU UNTIL
LOW PRES BRINGS RSTRNS AND A WINTRY MIX OF PCPN.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY THRU ERLY FRI AS A CDFNT EXITS. RSTRNS ARE
LIKELY AGAIN WITH ADVNG LOW PRES ON SUN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281200
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
700 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE THURSDAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS REVEALS STRONG COASTAL LOW (~989MB) LIFTING
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE/BAY OF FUNDY AREA TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA
AT SUNRISE THIS MORNING. TO THE WEST, ~1027MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, AND IS FORECAST
BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. DID NUDGE
TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WINDS KEEPING
TEMPS UP ABOVE GUIDANCE, BUT DO EXPECT WINDS TO DROP OFF BRIEFLY
JUST BEFORE DAWN...AND IN THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, EXPECT
READINGS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. THICKNESS TOOLS
MESH WELL WITH THE GOING FORECAST, WITH EXPECTED HIGHS TODAY IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER UPR 30S OVER THE EASTERN SHORE. CONDITIONS WL REMAIN A BIT
BREEZY THROUGH THE AFTN, WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AVGG 15-20 MPH
(GUSTS TO 25) ALONG THE COAST, 5-10 MPH INLAND. THIS WILL KEEP
WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S THROUGH THE DAY FOR MOST DESPITE A SUNNY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT/ERY
THURSDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD YIELD GOOD RADIATING
CONDITIONS AND A COLDER NIGHT TNGT. EARLY MORNING LOWS THURSDAY
MORNING 15 TO 20 INLAND TO LOWER TO MID 20S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING, ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO RETURN AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. NOT MUCH MOISTURE FOR THE SYSTEM TO WORK WITH AS IT
CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THU
AFTN/EVENING, OWING TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THUS, HAVE
KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON THU...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHC TO LOW CHC (20-30%) CHANCE FOR SOME PASSING RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE RICHMOND METRO AREA. ANY SHRAS LATE THU
AFTN/EVENING WOULD BE BRIEF, WITH QPF ON THE ORDER OF A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT BEST. 00Z/28 DATA IS ALSO A BIT QUICKER TO DRY OUT
ANY PCPN OVER THE EASTERN SHORE, SO WILL GO WITH RN/SN LATE THU
NGT AND LOWER POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR HIGHS, PRE-FRONTAL SW FLOW
YIELDS A MODEST AND SHORT LIVED WARM UP ON THU, WITH HIGHS INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S (WARMEST I-85/US-1 CORRIDOR). ASSOCIATED SFC
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE THU NGT/FRIDAY MORNING, USHERING
IN A SHARPLY COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
LOOK FOR BRISK WINDS OUT OF THE NW THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT TO YIELD WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S DURING THE DAY FRIDAY
AND INTO THE LOW TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT (SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO ON
THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NRN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS PREVAILING. TROUGH EXITS THE COAST FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY SAT. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE
AROUND -10C (-1 STD DEV). THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
NOW WITH PUSHING THE SFC HIGH OFFSHORE SUN AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
PROGGED TO LIFT FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS SUN...AND NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT. TRAILING
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT. DEEP H85 TROUGH
EXPECTED TO ADVECT MOISTURE NWD FROM THE ERN GULF INTO THE REGION
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING
WINDS ALOFT...WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
THE AREA LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS INTO
THE LOW-MID 40S (POSSIBLY WARMER) SUN...WITH THE COLDEST AIR
REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE
PREDOMINATELY RAIN...BUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE
ONSET AS WAA KICKS IN. HOWEVER...NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALL
RAIN LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH A POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER ACROSS THE
NRN ZONES LATE SAT NIGHT AS COLD AIR PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WLY
PUSH BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN DRYING CONDITIONS MON-
TUES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. BY
TUES...TEMPS FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
REMNANT BKN-OVC CLOUDS AROUND 10 KFT AGL WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SWD AND OUT OF THE AREA BY 28/0900-1000Z...BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR THEREAFTER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH OF A SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN
THE INCOMING HIGH AND THE COASTAL LOW OFF THE NRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST TO PRODUCE BREEZY NNW-N WINDS THROUGH TODAY. WINDS
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM SKIRTS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW) WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64 THURSDAY EVENING. A GOOD SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY WINDS TO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
COASTAL LOW LOCATED OFF THE MAINE AND NOVA SCOTIA COASTS WILL PUSH
OUT TO SEA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY.
THERE IS STILL JUST ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN THESE
SYSTEMS TO KEEP BREEZY NW WINDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25KT. GUSTS UP TO 30KT WILL
PERSIST ON THE BAY THROUGH THIS MORNING...AND ON THE COASTAL
WATERS ALL DAY. SEAS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 5-8FT NORTH TO 7-10FT
SOUTH AND ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
DROPPING BELOW 5FT LATE TONIGHT. WAVES OF 3-5FT WILL ALSO SUBSIDE
TO 3-4FT THROUGH TODAY...DROPPING TO 2-3FT BY LATE THIS EVENING.
SCA FLAGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH AOB 15KT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FINALLY RELAXES. THE
HIGH GETS SHUNTED OVER THE SE COAST THU AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CLIPPER IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS LATE THU NIGHT. A
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED
PRIMARILY DURING FRI/FRI NIGHT AS A COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS GETS
PULLED OVER THE WATERS BY THE DEPARTING LOW AND A CANADIAN HIGH
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. MODELS HAVE TRENDED COLDER WITH REGARD
TO THE AIRMASS TEMPERATURES THUS RESULTING IN STRONGER CAA
PROCESSES. SINCE MODELS TEND TO UNDERCUT WIND SPEEDS IN THESE
SITUATIONS...DECIDED TO GO ABOVE GUIDANCE WHICH PUTS THE WATERS
WITHIN POTENTIALLY SOLID GALE CONDITIONS (EXCEPT RIVERS/SOUND)
FRI/FRI NIGHT. NW WINDS WOULD AVERAGE 20-25KT WITH GUSTS OF
35-40KT. SEAS/WAVES ALSO EXPECTED TO BUILD QUICKLY ONCE THE WIND
SURGE BEGINS. SEAS COULD REACH 7-10FT...WAVES COULD REACH 4-6FT.
WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON MODEL TRENDS FOR POTENTIAL
HEADLINES IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. REGARDLESS OF STRENGTH...
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE/DIMINISH SAT NIGHT AS THE
CANADIAN HIGH SLIDES DIRECTLY OVER THE WATERS. A SOUTHERN STREAM
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE SUN INTO MON.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281200
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
700 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE THURSDAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS REVEALS STRONG COASTAL LOW (~989MB) LIFTING
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE/BAY OF FUNDY AREA TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA
AT SUNRISE THIS MORNING. TO THE WEST, ~1027MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, AND IS FORECAST
BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. DID NUDGE
TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WINDS KEEPING
TEMPS UP ABOVE GUIDANCE, BUT DO EXPECT WINDS TO DROP OFF BRIEFLY
JUST BEFORE DAWN...AND IN THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, EXPECT
READINGS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. THICKNESS TOOLS
MESH WELL WITH THE GOING FORECAST, WITH EXPECTED HIGHS TODAY IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER UPR 30S OVER THE EASTERN SHORE. CONDITIONS WL REMAIN A BIT
BREEZY THROUGH THE AFTN, WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AVGG 15-20 MPH
(GUSTS TO 25) ALONG THE COAST, 5-10 MPH INLAND. THIS WILL KEEP
WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S THROUGH THE DAY FOR MOST DESPITE A SUNNY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT/ERY
THURSDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD YIELD GOOD RADIATING
CONDITIONS AND A COLDER NIGHT TNGT. EARLY MORNING LOWS THURSDAY
MORNING 15 TO 20 INLAND TO LOWER TO MID 20S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING, ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO RETURN AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. NOT MUCH MOISTURE FOR THE SYSTEM TO WORK WITH AS IT
CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THU
AFTN/EVENING, OWING TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THUS, HAVE
KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON THU...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHC TO LOW CHC (20-30%) CHANCE FOR SOME PASSING RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE RICHMOND METRO AREA. ANY SHRAS LATE THU
AFTN/EVENING WOULD BE BRIEF, WITH QPF ON THE ORDER OF A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT BEST. 00Z/28 DATA IS ALSO A BIT QUICKER TO DRY OUT
ANY PCPN OVER THE EASTERN SHORE, SO WILL GO WITH RN/SN LATE THU
NGT AND LOWER POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR HIGHS, PRE-FRONTAL SW FLOW
YIELDS A MODEST AND SHORT LIVED WARM UP ON THU, WITH HIGHS INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S (WARMEST I-85/US-1 CORRIDOR). ASSOCIATED SFC
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE THU NGT/FRIDAY MORNING, USHERING
IN A SHARPLY COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
LOOK FOR BRISK WINDS OUT OF THE NW THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT TO YIELD WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S DURING THE DAY FRIDAY
AND INTO THE LOW TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT (SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO ON
THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NRN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS PREVAILING. TROUGH EXITS THE COAST FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY SAT. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE
AROUND -10C (-1 STD DEV). THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
NOW WITH PUSHING THE SFC HIGH OFFSHORE SUN AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
PROGGED TO LIFT FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS SUN...AND NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT. TRAILING
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT. DEEP H85 TROUGH
EXPECTED TO ADVECT MOISTURE NWD FROM THE ERN GULF INTO THE REGION
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING
WINDS ALOFT...WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
THE AREA LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS INTO
THE LOW-MID 40S (POSSIBLY WARMER) SUN...WITH THE COLDEST AIR
REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE
PREDOMINATELY RAIN...BUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE
ONSET AS WAA KICKS IN. HOWEVER...NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALL
RAIN LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH A POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER ACROSS THE
NRN ZONES LATE SAT NIGHT AS COLD AIR PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WLY
PUSH BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN DRYING CONDITIONS MON-
TUES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. BY
TUES...TEMPS FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
REMNANT BKN-OVC CLOUDS AROUND 10 KFT AGL WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SWD AND OUT OF THE AREA BY 28/0900-1000Z...BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR THEREAFTER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH OF A SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN
THE INCOMING HIGH AND THE COASTAL LOW OFF THE NRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST TO PRODUCE BREEZY NNW-N WINDS THROUGH TODAY. WINDS
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM SKIRTS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW) WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64 THURSDAY EVENING. A GOOD SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY WINDS TO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
COASTAL LOW LOCATED OFF THE MAINE AND NOVA SCOTIA COASTS WILL PUSH
OUT TO SEA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY.
THERE IS STILL JUST ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN THESE
SYSTEMS TO KEEP BREEZY NW WINDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25KT. GUSTS UP TO 30KT WILL
PERSIST ON THE BAY THROUGH THIS MORNING...AND ON THE COASTAL
WATERS ALL DAY. SEAS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 5-8FT NORTH TO 7-10FT
SOUTH AND ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
DROPPING BELOW 5FT LATE TONIGHT. WAVES OF 3-5FT WILL ALSO SUBSIDE
TO 3-4FT THROUGH TODAY...DROPPING TO 2-3FT BY LATE THIS EVENING.
SCA FLAGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH AOB 15KT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FINALLY RELAXES. THE
HIGH GETS SHUNTED OVER THE SE COAST THU AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CLIPPER IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS LATE THU NIGHT. A
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED
PRIMARILY DURING FRI/FRI NIGHT AS A COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS GETS
PULLED OVER THE WATERS BY THE DEPARTING LOW AND A CANADIAN HIGH
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. MODELS HAVE TRENDED COLDER WITH REGARD
TO THE AIRMASS TEMPERATURES THUS RESULTING IN STRONGER CAA
PROCESSES. SINCE MODELS TEND TO UNDERCUT WIND SPEEDS IN THESE
SITUATIONS...DECIDED TO GO ABOVE GUIDANCE WHICH PUTS THE WATERS
WITHIN POTENTIALLY SOLID GALE CONDITIONS (EXCEPT RIVERS/SOUND)
FRI/FRI NIGHT. NW WINDS WOULD AVERAGE 20-25KT WITH GUSTS OF
35-40KT. SEAS/WAVES ALSO EXPECTED TO BUILD QUICKLY ONCE THE WIND
SURGE BEGINS. SEAS COULD REACH 7-10FT...WAVES COULD REACH 4-6FT.
WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON MODEL TRENDS FOR POTENTIAL
HEADLINES IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. REGARDLESS OF STRENGTH...
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE/DIMINISH SAT NIGHT AS THE
CANADIAN HIGH SLIDES DIRECTLY OVER THE WATERS. A SOUTHERN STREAM
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE SUN INTO MON.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281137
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
637 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY BUT COLD DAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AND SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE...BUT IT WILL STILL BE PLENTY COLD HERE. WOULD EXPECT TO
SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SOUTHWARD UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.

EVEN WITH SUNSHINE TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND WAA WILL BE ONGOING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK. TEMPS WILL START
TO SLOWLY RISE AS DAYBREAK APPROACHES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. NEXT SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY MORNING
REACHING WESTERN OHIO BY MIDDAY. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN THE FORECAST GETS REAL TRICKY.
WAA CONTINUES AHEAD OF BOUNDARY AS LOW LEVEL JET WILL PULL WARMER
AIR NORTHWARD. LOW AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESS QUICKLY RISE TO LEVELS
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS
CORRECT...THIS WARMING MAY ENVELOP THE WHOLE AREA. TEMPERATURE
WILL RISE THURSDAY...BUT WITH A VERY COLD GROUND AND LARGE SNOW
PACK THE SURFACE ITSELF WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND. THERE IS A HIGH
THREAT THURSDAY FOR A PERIOD OF ICE ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA. THE
REAL HEADACHE COMES FROM THE FACT THAT SENSORS MAY SHOW TEMPS
ABOVE 32...BUT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED GROUND CONDITIONS...RAIN
WILL FREEZE AS IT CONTACTS THE SURFACE. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
GFS AND NAM FOR PRECIP TYPE...BUT THE KEY WILL BE TO FIGURE OUT
THE SURFACE TEMPS...WHICH WILL BE NO EASY TASK.

COLD FRONT QUICKLY CLEARS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE REGION. LOW AND MID-LEVEL
THICKNESS QUICKLY RESPOND AND EXPECT AN ATMOSPHERE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ALL SNOW BY 06Z FRIDAY. BY THIS TIME...MOST...IF NOT ALL
OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...WITH STRONG CAA AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVEN WITH
LOWERING INVERSIONS AND A FROZEN LAKE ERIE. SNOW GROWTH ZONES RAPIDLY
DROP FRIDAY...SO UNTIL THE LOWER LAYERS DRY OUT...THE THREAT FOR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL FOCUS
HIGHEST POPS ON THE RIDGES AND FAR NORTH.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY TO OCCUR IN THE EARLY MORNING WITH A
STEADY DECLINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS/FLURRIES ARE BEING STUBBORN THIS MORNING...STILL EXPECT
THEM TO BREAK UP FOR THE MOST PART BY 16Z. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE UNTIL THEN. VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SKC AND LIGHT WINDS.
MID/UPPER CLOUDS WILL BUILD TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM...BUT VFR SHOULD BE MAINTAINED THROUGH 12Z. BRING IN A
LIGHT PRECIP MIX TOWARDS THE END OF THE 30 HOUR PIT TAF. CL

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281137
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
637 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY BUT COLD DAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AND SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE...BUT IT WILL STILL BE PLENTY COLD HERE. WOULD EXPECT TO
SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SOUTHWARD UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.

EVEN WITH SUNSHINE TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND WAA WILL BE ONGOING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK. TEMPS WILL START
TO SLOWLY RISE AS DAYBREAK APPROACHES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. NEXT SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY MORNING
REACHING WESTERN OHIO BY MIDDAY. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN THE FORECAST GETS REAL TRICKY.
WAA CONTINUES AHEAD OF BOUNDARY AS LOW LEVEL JET WILL PULL WARMER
AIR NORTHWARD. LOW AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESS QUICKLY RISE TO LEVELS
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS
CORRECT...THIS WARMING MAY ENVELOP THE WHOLE AREA. TEMPERATURE
WILL RISE THURSDAY...BUT WITH A VERY COLD GROUND AND LARGE SNOW
PACK THE SURFACE ITSELF WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND. THERE IS A HIGH
THREAT THURSDAY FOR A PERIOD OF ICE ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA. THE
REAL HEADACHE COMES FROM THE FACT THAT SENSORS MAY SHOW TEMPS
ABOVE 32...BUT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED GROUND CONDITIONS...RAIN
WILL FREEZE AS IT CONTACTS THE SURFACE. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
GFS AND NAM FOR PRECIP TYPE...BUT THE KEY WILL BE TO FIGURE OUT
THE SURFACE TEMPS...WHICH WILL BE NO EASY TASK.

COLD FRONT QUICKLY CLEARS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE REGION. LOW AND MID-LEVEL
THICKNESS QUICKLY RESPOND AND EXPECT AN ATMOSPHERE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ALL SNOW BY 06Z FRIDAY. BY THIS TIME...MOST...IF NOT ALL
OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...WITH STRONG CAA AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVEN WITH
LOWERING INVERSIONS AND A FROZEN LAKE ERIE. SNOW GROWTH ZONES RAPIDLY
DROP FRIDAY...SO UNTIL THE LOWER LAYERS DRY OUT...THE THREAT FOR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL FOCUS
HIGHEST POPS ON THE RIDGES AND FAR NORTH.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY TO OCCUR IN THE EARLY MORNING WITH A
STEADY DECLINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS/FLURRIES ARE BEING STUBBORN THIS MORNING...STILL EXPECT
THEM TO BREAK UP FOR THE MOST PART BY 16Z. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE UNTIL THEN. VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SKC AND LIGHT WINDS.
MID/UPPER CLOUDS WILL BUILD TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM...BUT VFR SHOULD BE MAINTAINED THROUGH 12Z. BRING IN A
LIGHT PRECIP MIX TOWARDS THE END OF THE 30 HOUR PIT TAF. CL

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281137
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
637 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY BUT COLD DAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AND SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE...BUT IT WILL STILL BE PLENTY COLD HERE. WOULD EXPECT TO
SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SOUTHWARD UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.

EVEN WITH SUNSHINE TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND WAA WILL BE ONGOING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK. TEMPS WILL START
TO SLOWLY RISE AS DAYBREAK APPROACHES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. NEXT SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY MORNING
REACHING WESTERN OHIO BY MIDDAY. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN THE FORECAST GETS REAL TRICKY.
WAA CONTINUES AHEAD OF BOUNDARY AS LOW LEVEL JET WILL PULL WARMER
AIR NORTHWARD. LOW AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESS QUICKLY RISE TO LEVELS
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS
CORRECT...THIS WARMING MAY ENVELOP THE WHOLE AREA. TEMPERATURE
WILL RISE THURSDAY...BUT WITH A VERY COLD GROUND AND LARGE SNOW
PACK THE SURFACE ITSELF WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND. THERE IS A HIGH
THREAT THURSDAY FOR A PERIOD OF ICE ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA. THE
REAL HEADACHE COMES FROM THE FACT THAT SENSORS MAY SHOW TEMPS
ABOVE 32...BUT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED GROUND CONDITIONS...RAIN
WILL FREEZE AS IT CONTACTS THE SURFACE. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
GFS AND NAM FOR PRECIP TYPE...BUT THE KEY WILL BE TO FIGURE OUT
THE SURFACE TEMPS...WHICH WILL BE NO EASY TASK.

COLD FRONT QUICKLY CLEARS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE REGION. LOW AND MID-LEVEL
THICKNESS QUICKLY RESPOND AND EXPECT AN ATMOSPHERE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ALL SNOW BY 06Z FRIDAY. BY THIS TIME...MOST...IF NOT ALL
OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...WITH STRONG CAA AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVEN WITH
LOWERING INVERSIONS AND A FROZEN LAKE ERIE. SNOW GROWTH ZONES RAPIDLY
DROP FRIDAY...SO UNTIL THE LOWER LAYERS DRY OUT...THE THREAT FOR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL FOCUS
HIGHEST POPS ON THE RIDGES AND FAR NORTH.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY TO OCCUR IN THE EARLY MORNING WITH A
STEADY DECLINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS/FLURRIES ARE BEING STUBBORN THIS MORNING...STILL EXPECT
THEM TO BREAK UP FOR THE MOST PART BY 16Z. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE UNTIL THEN. VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SKC AND LIGHT WINDS.
MID/UPPER CLOUDS WILL BUILD TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM...BUT VFR SHOULD BE MAINTAINED THROUGH 12Z. BRING IN A
LIGHT PRECIP MIX TOWARDS THE END OF THE 30 HOUR PIT TAF. CL

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281137
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
637 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY BUT COLD DAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AND SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE...BUT IT WILL STILL BE PLENTY COLD HERE. WOULD EXPECT TO
SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SOUTHWARD UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.

EVEN WITH SUNSHINE TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND WAA WILL BE ONGOING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK. TEMPS WILL START
TO SLOWLY RISE AS DAYBREAK APPROACHES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. NEXT SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY MORNING
REACHING WESTERN OHIO BY MIDDAY. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN THE FORECAST GETS REAL TRICKY.
WAA CONTINUES AHEAD OF BOUNDARY AS LOW LEVEL JET WILL PULL WARMER
AIR NORTHWARD. LOW AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESS QUICKLY RISE TO LEVELS
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS
CORRECT...THIS WARMING MAY ENVELOP THE WHOLE AREA. TEMPERATURE
WILL RISE THURSDAY...BUT WITH A VERY COLD GROUND AND LARGE SNOW
PACK THE SURFACE ITSELF WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND. THERE IS A HIGH
THREAT THURSDAY FOR A PERIOD OF ICE ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA. THE
REAL HEADACHE COMES FROM THE FACT THAT SENSORS MAY SHOW TEMPS
ABOVE 32...BUT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED GROUND CONDITIONS...RAIN
WILL FREEZE AS IT CONTACTS THE SURFACE. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
GFS AND NAM FOR PRECIP TYPE...BUT THE KEY WILL BE TO FIGURE OUT
THE SURFACE TEMPS...WHICH WILL BE NO EASY TASK.

COLD FRONT QUICKLY CLEARS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE REGION. LOW AND MID-LEVEL
THICKNESS QUICKLY RESPOND AND EXPECT AN ATMOSPHERE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ALL SNOW BY 06Z FRIDAY. BY THIS TIME...MOST...IF NOT ALL
OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...WITH STRONG CAA AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVEN WITH
LOWERING INVERSIONS AND A FROZEN LAKE ERIE. SNOW GROWTH ZONES RAPIDLY
DROP FRIDAY...SO UNTIL THE LOWER LAYERS DRY OUT...THE THREAT FOR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL FOCUS
HIGHEST POPS ON THE RIDGES AND FAR NORTH.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY TO OCCUR IN THE EARLY MORNING WITH A
STEADY DECLINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS/FLURRIES ARE BEING STUBBORN THIS MORNING...STILL EXPECT
THEM TO BREAK UP FOR THE MOST PART BY 16Z. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE UNTIL THEN. VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SKC AND LIGHT WINDS.
MID/UPPER CLOUDS WILL BUILD TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM...BUT VFR SHOULD BE MAINTAINED THROUGH 12Z. BRING IN A
LIGHT PRECIP MIX TOWARDS THE END OF THE 30 HOUR PIT TAF. CL

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281010
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
510 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE THURSDAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES STRONG COASTAL LOW (~989MB) LIFTING INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE/BAY OF FUNDY AREA TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA EARLY
THIS MORNING. TO THE WEST, ~1026MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
DRIFT EAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, AND IS FORECAST BUILD ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. DID NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WINDS KEEPING TEMPS UP ABOVE GUIDANCE, BUT
DO EXPECT WINDS TO DROP OFF BRIEFLY JUST BEFORE DAWN...AND IN THE
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, EXPECT READINGS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE. THICKNESS TOOLS MESH WELL WITH THE GOING FORECAST,
WITH EXPECTED HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER UPR 30S OVER THE EASTERN SHORE.
CONDITIONS WL REMAIN A BIT BREEZY THROUGH THE AFTN, WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS AVGG 15-20 MPH (GUSTS TO 25) ALONG THE COAST, 5-10 MPH
INLAND. THIS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S THROUGH THE DAY FOR
MOST DESPITE A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD TONIGHT/ERY THURSDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD
YIELD GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS AND A COLDER NIGHT TNGT. EARLY
MORNING LOWS THURSDAY MORNING 15 TO 20 INLAND TO LOWER TO MID 20S
ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING, ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO RETURN AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. NOT MUCH MOISTURE FOR THE SYSTEM TO WORK WITH AS IT
CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THU
AFTN/EVENING, OWING TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THUS, HAVE
KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON THU...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHC TO LOW CHC (20-30%) CHANCE FOR SOME PASSING RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE RICHMOND METRO AREA. ANY SHRAS LATE THU
AFTN/EVENING WOULD BE BRIEF, WITH QPF ON THE ORDER OF A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT BEST. 00Z/28 DATA IS ALSO A BIT QUICKER TO DRY OUT
ANY PCPN OVER THE EASTERN SHORE, SO WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST
OVERNIGHT. FOR HIGHS, PRE-FRONTAL SW FLOW YIELDS A MODEST AND
SHORT LIVED WARM UP ON THU, WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
(WARMEST I-85/US-1 CORRIDOR). ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA LATE THU NGT/FRIDAY MORNING, USHERING IN A SHARPLY COLDER
AND DRIER AIRMASS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR BRISK
WINDS OUT OF THE NW THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT TO
YIELD WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO THE
LOW TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT (SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO ON THE LOWER
EASTERN SHORE).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NRN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS PREVAILING. TROUGH EXITS THE COAST FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY SAT. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE
AROUND -10C (-1 STD DEV). THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
NOW WITH PUSHING THE SFC HIGH OFFSHORE SUN AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
PROGGED TO LIFT FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS SUN...AND NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT. TRAILING
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT. DEEP H85 TROUGH
EXPECTED TO ADVECT MOISTURE NWD FROM THE ERN GULF INTO THE REGION
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING
WINDS ALOFT...WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
THE AREA LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS INTO
THE LOW-MID 40S (POSSIBLY WARMER) SUN...WITH THE COLDEST AIR
REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE
PREDOMINATELY RAIN...BUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE
ONSET AS WAA KICKS IN. HOWEVER...NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALL
RAIN LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH A POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER ACROSS THE
NRN ZONES LATE SAT NIGHT AS COLD AIR PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WLY
PUSH BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN DRYING CONDITIONS MON-
TUES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. BY
TUES...TEMPS FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
REMNANT BKN-OVC CLOUDS AROUND 10 KFT AGL WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SWD AND OUT OF THE AREA BY 28/0900-1000Z...BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR THEREAFTER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH OF A SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN
THE INCOMING HIGH AND THE COASTAL LOW OFF THE NRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST TO PRODUCE BREEZY NNW-N WINDS THROUGH TODAY. WINDS
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM SKIRTS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW) WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64 THURSDAY EVENING. A GOOD SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY WINDS TO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
COASTAL LOW LOCATED OFF THE MAINE AND NOVA SCOTIA COASTS WILL PUSH
OUT TO SEA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY.
THERE IS STILL JUST ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN THESE
SYSTEMS TO KEEP BREEZY NW WINDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25KT. GUSTS UP TO 30KT WILL
PERSIST ON THE BAY THROUGH THIS MORNING...AND ON THE COASTAL
WATERS ALL DAY. SEAS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 5-8FT NORTH TO 7-10FT
SOUTH AND ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
DROPPING BELOW 5FT LATE TONIGHT. WAVES OF 3-5FT WILL ALSO SUBSIDE
TO 3-4FT THROUGH TODAY...DROPPING TO 2-3FT BY LATE THIS EVENING.
SCA FLAGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH AOB 15KT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FINALLY RELAXES. THE
HIGH GETS SHUNTED OVER THE SE COAST THU AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CLIPPER IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS LATE THU NIGHT. A
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED
PRIMARILY DURING FRI/FRI NIGHT AS A COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS GETS
PULLED OVER THE WATERS BY THE DEPARTING LOW AND A CANADIAN HIGH
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. MODELS HAVE TRENDED COLDER WITH REGARD
TO THE AIRMASS TEMPERATURES THUS RESULTING IN STRONGER CAA
PROCESSES. SINCE MODELS TEND TO UNDERCUT WIND SPEEDS IN THESE
SITUATIONS...DECIDED TO GO ABOVE GUIDANCE WHICH PUTS THE WATERS
WITHIN POTENTIALLY SOLID GALE CONDITIONS (EXCEPT RIVERS/SOUND)
FRI/FRI NIGHT. NW WINDS WOULD AVERAGE 20-25KT WITH GUSTS OF
35-40KT. SEAS/WAVES ALSO EXPECTED TO BUILD QUICKLY ONCE THE WIND
SURGE BEGINS. SEAS COULD REACH 7-10FT...WAVES COULD REACH 4-6FT.
WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON MODEL TRENDS FOR POTENTIAL
HEADLINES IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. REGARDLESS OF STRENGTH...
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE/DIMINISH SAT NIGHT AS THE
CANADIAN HIGH SLIDES DIRECTLY OVER THE WATERS. A SOUTHERN STREAM
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE SUN INTO MON.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281010
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
510 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE THURSDAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES STRONG COASTAL LOW (~989MB) LIFTING INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE/BAY OF FUNDY AREA TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA EARLY
THIS MORNING. TO THE WEST, ~1026MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
DRIFT EAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, AND IS FORECAST BUILD ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. DID NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WINDS KEEPING TEMPS UP ABOVE GUIDANCE, BUT
DO EXPECT WINDS TO DROP OFF BRIEFLY JUST BEFORE DAWN...AND IN THE
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, EXPECT READINGS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE. THICKNESS TOOLS MESH WELL WITH THE GOING FORECAST,
WITH EXPECTED HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER UPR 30S OVER THE EASTERN SHORE.
CONDITIONS WL REMAIN A BIT BREEZY THROUGH THE AFTN, WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS AVGG 15-20 MPH (GUSTS TO 25) ALONG THE COAST, 5-10 MPH
INLAND. THIS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S THROUGH THE DAY FOR
MOST DESPITE A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD TONIGHT/ERY THURSDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD
YIELD GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS AND A COLDER NIGHT TNGT. EARLY
MORNING LOWS THURSDAY MORNING 15 TO 20 INLAND TO LOWER TO MID 20S
ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING, ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO RETURN AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. NOT MUCH MOISTURE FOR THE SYSTEM TO WORK WITH AS IT
CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THU
AFTN/EVENING, OWING TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THUS, HAVE
KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON THU...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHC TO LOW CHC (20-30%) CHANCE FOR SOME PASSING RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE RICHMOND METRO AREA. ANY SHRAS LATE THU
AFTN/EVENING WOULD BE BRIEF, WITH QPF ON THE ORDER OF A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT BEST. 00Z/28 DATA IS ALSO A BIT QUICKER TO DRY OUT
ANY PCPN OVER THE EASTERN SHORE, SO WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST
OVERNIGHT. FOR HIGHS, PRE-FRONTAL SW FLOW YIELDS A MODEST AND
SHORT LIVED WARM UP ON THU, WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
(WARMEST I-85/US-1 CORRIDOR). ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA LATE THU NGT/FRIDAY MORNING, USHERING IN A SHARPLY COLDER
AND DRIER AIRMASS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR BRISK
WINDS OUT OF THE NW THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT TO
YIELD WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO THE
LOW TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT (SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO ON THE LOWER
EASTERN SHORE).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NRN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS PREVAILING. TROUGH EXITS THE COAST FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY SAT. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE
AROUND -10C (-1 STD DEV). THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
NOW WITH PUSHING THE SFC HIGH OFFSHORE SUN AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
PROGGED TO LIFT FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS SUN...AND NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT. TRAILING
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT. DEEP H85 TROUGH
EXPECTED TO ADVECT MOISTURE NWD FROM THE ERN GULF INTO THE REGION
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING
WINDS ALOFT...WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
THE AREA LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS INTO
THE LOW-MID 40S (POSSIBLY WARMER) SUN...WITH THE COLDEST AIR
REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE
PREDOMINATELY RAIN...BUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE
ONSET AS WAA KICKS IN. HOWEVER...NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALL
RAIN LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH A POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER ACROSS THE
NRN ZONES LATE SAT NIGHT AS COLD AIR PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WLY
PUSH BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN DRYING CONDITIONS MON-
TUES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. BY
TUES...TEMPS FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
REMNANT BKN-OVC CLOUDS AROUND 10 KFT AGL WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SWD AND OUT OF THE AREA BY 28/0900-1000Z...BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR THEREAFTER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH OF A SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN
THE INCOMING HIGH AND THE COASTAL LOW OFF THE NRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST TO PRODUCE BREEZY NNW-N WINDS THROUGH TODAY. WINDS
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM SKIRTS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW) WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64 THURSDAY EVENING. A GOOD SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY WINDS TO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
COASTAL LOW LOCATED OFF THE MAINE AND NOVA SCOTIA COASTS WILL PUSH
OUT TO SEA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY.
THERE IS STILL JUST ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN THESE
SYSTEMS TO KEEP BREEZY NW WINDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25KT. GUSTS UP TO 30KT WILL
PERSIST ON THE BAY THROUGH THIS MORNING...AND ON THE COASTAL
WATERS ALL DAY. SEAS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 5-8FT NORTH TO 7-10FT
SOUTH AND ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
DROPPING BELOW 5FT LATE TONIGHT. WAVES OF 3-5FT WILL ALSO SUBSIDE
TO 3-4FT THROUGH TODAY...DROPPING TO 2-3FT BY LATE THIS EVENING.
SCA FLAGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH AOB 15KT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FINALLY RELAXES. THE
HIGH GETS SHUNTED OVER THE SE COAST THU AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CLIPPER IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS LATE THU NIGHT. A
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED
PRIMARILY DURING FRI/FRI NIGHT AS A COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS GETS
PULLED OVER THE WATERS BY THE DEPARTING LOW AND A CANADIAN HIGH
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. MODELS HAVE TRENDED COLDER WITH REGARD
TO THE AIRMASS TEMPERATURES THUS RESULTING IN STRONGER CAA
PROCESSES. SINCE MODELS TEND TO UNDERCUT WIND SPEEDS IN THESE
SITUATIONS...DECIDED TO GO ABOVE GUIDANCE WHICH PUTS THE WATERS
WITHIN POTENTIALLY SOLID GALE CONDITIONS (EXCEPT RIVERS/SOUND)
FRI/FRI NIGHT. NW WINDS WOULD AVERAGE 20-25KT WITH GUSTS OF
35-40KT. SEAS/WAVES ALSO EXPECTED TO BUILD QUICKLY ONCE THE WIND
SURGE BEGINS. SEAS COULD REACH 7-10FT...WAVES COULD REACH 4-6FT.
WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON MODEL TRENDS FOR POTENTIAL
HEADLINES IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. REGARDLESS OF STRENGTH...
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE/DIMINISH SAT NIGHT AS THE
CANADIAN HIGH SLIDES DIRECTLY OVER THE WATERS. A SOUTHERN STREAM
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE SUN INTO MON.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281010
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
510 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE THURSDAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES STRONG COASTAL LOW (~989MB) LIFTING INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE/BAY OF FUNDY AREA TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA EARLY
THIS MORNING. TO THE WEST, ~1026MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
DRIFT EAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, AND IS FORECAST BUILD ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. DID NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WINDS KEEPING TEMPS UP ABOVE GUIDANCE, BUT
DO EXPECT WINDS TO DROP OFF BRIEFLY JUST BEFORE DAWN...AND IN THE
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, EXPECT READINGS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE. THICKNESS TOOLS MESH WELL WITH THE GOING FORECAST,
WITH EXPECTED HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER UPR 30S OVER THE EASTERN SHORE.
CONDITIONS WL REMAIN A BIT BREEZY THROUGH THE AFTN, WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS AVGG 15-20 MPH (GUSTS TO 25) ALONG THE COAST, 5-10 MPH
INLAND. THIS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S THROUGH THE DAY FOR
MOST DESPITE A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD TONIGHT/ERY THURSDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD
YIELD GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS AND A COLDER NIGHT TNGT. EARLY
MORNING LOWS THURSDAY MORNING 15 TO 20 INLAND TO LOWER TO MID 20S
ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING, ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO RETURN AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. NOT MUCH MOISTURE FOR THE SYSTEM TO WORK WITH AS IT
CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THU
AFTN/EVENING, OWING TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THUS, HAVE
KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON THU...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHC TO LOW CHC (20-30%) CHANCE FOR SOME PASSING RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE RICHMOND METRO AREA. ANY SHRAS LATE THU
AFTN/EVENING WOULD BE BRIEF, WITH QPF ON THE ORDER OF A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT BEST. 00Z/28 DATA IS ALSO A BIT QUICKER TO DRY OUT
ANY PCPN OVER THE EASTERN SHORE, SO WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST
OVERNIGHT. FOR HIGHS, PRE-FRONTAL SW FLOW YIELDS A MODEST AND
SHORT LIVED WARM UP ON THU, WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
(WARMEST I-85/US-1 CORRIDOR). ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA LATE THU NGT/FRIDAY MORNING, USHERING IN A SHARPLY COLDER
AND DRIER AIRMASS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR BRISK
WINDS OUT OF THE NW THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT TO
YIELD WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO THE
LOW TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT (SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO ON THE LOWER
EASTERN SHORE).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NRN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS PREVAILING. TROUGH EXITS THE COAST FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY SAT. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE
AROUND -10C (-1 STD DEV). THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
NOW WITH PUSHING THE SFC HIGH OFFSHORE SUN AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
PROGGED TO LIFT FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS SUN...AND NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT. TRAILING
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT. DEEP H85 TROUGH
EXPECTED TO ADVECT MOISTURE NWD FROM THE ERN GULF INTO THE REGION
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING
WINDS ALOFT...WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
THE AREA LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS INTO
THE LOW-MID 40S (POSSIBLY WARMER) SUN...WITH THE COLDEST AIR
REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE
PREDOMINATELY RAIN...BUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE
ONSET AS WAA KICKS IN. HOWEVER...NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALL
RAIN LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH A POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER ACROSS THE
NRN ZONES LATE SAT NIGHT AS COLD AIR PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WLY
PUSH BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN DRYING CONDITIONS MON-
TUES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. BY
TUES...TEMPS FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
REMNANT BKN-OVC CLOUDS AROUND 10 KFT AGL WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SWD AND OUT OF THE AREA BY 28/0900-1000Z...BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR THEREAFTER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH OF A SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN
THE INCOMING HIGH AND THE COASTAL LOW OFF THE NRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST TO PRODUCE BREEZY NNW-N WINDS THROUGH TODAY. WINDS
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM SKIRTS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW) WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64 THURSDAY EVENING. A GOOD SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY WINDS TO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
COASTAL LOW LOCATED OFF THE MAINE AND NOVA SCOTIA COASTS WILL PUSH
OUT TO SEA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY.
THERE IS STILL JUST ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN THESE
SYSTEMS TO KEEP BREEZY NW WINDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25KT. GUSTS UP TO 30KT WILL
PERSIST ON THE BAY THROUGH THIS MORNING...AND ON THE COASTAL
WATERS ALL DAY. SEAS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 5-8FT NORTH TO 7-10FT
SOUTH AND ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
DROPPING BELOW 5FT LATE TONIGHT. WAVES OF 3-5FT WILL ALSO SUBSIDE
TO 3-4FT THROUGH TODAY...DROPPING TO 2-3FT BY LATE THIS EVENING.
SCA FLAGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH AOB 15KT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FINALLY RELAXES. THE
HIGH GETS SHUNTED OVER THE SE COAST THU AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CLIPPER IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS LATE THU NIGHT. A
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED
PRIMARILY DURING FRI/FRI NIGHT AS A COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS GETS
PULLED OVER THE WATERS BY THE DEPARTING LOW AND A CANADIAN HIGH
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. MODELS HAVE TRENDED COLDER WITH REGARD
TO THE AIRMASS TEMPERATURES THUS RESULTING IN STRONGER CAA
PROCESSES. SINCE MODELS TEND TO UNDERCUT WIND SPEEDS IN THESE
SITUATIONS...DECIDED TO GO ABOVE GUIDANCE WHICH PUTS THE WATERS
WITHIN POTENTIALLY SOLID GALE CONDITIONS (EXCEPT RIVERS/SOUND)
FRI/FRI NIGHT. NW WINDS WOULD AVERAGE 20-25KT WITH GUSTS OF
35-40KT. SEAS/WAVES ALSO EXPECTED TO BUILD QUICKLY ONCE THE WIND
SURGE BEGINS. SEAS COULD REACH 7-10FT...WAVES COULD REACH 4-6FT.
WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON MODEL TRENDS FOR POTENTIAL
HEADLINES IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. REGARDLESS OF STRENGTH...
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE/DIMINISH SAT NIGHT AS THE
CANADIAN HIGH SLIDES DIRECTLY OVER THE WATERS. A SOUTHERN STREAM
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE SUN INTO MON.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280936
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
436 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY BUT COLD DAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AND SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE...BUT IT WILL STILL BE PLENTY COLD HERE. WOULD EXPECT TO
SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SOUTHWARD UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.

EVEN WITH SUNSHINE TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND WAA WILL BE ONGOING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK. TEMPS WILL START
TO SLOWLY RISE AS DAYBREAK APPROACHES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. NEXT SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY MORNING
REACHING WESTERN OHIO BY MIDDAY. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN THE FORECAST GETS REAL TRICKY.
WAA CONTINUES AHEAD OF BOUNDARY AS LOW LEVEL JET WILL PULL WARMER
AIR NORTHWARD. LOW AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESS QUICKLY RISE TO LEVELS
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS
CORRECT...THIS WARMING MAY ENVELOP THE WHOLE AREA. TEMPERATURE
WILL RISE THURSDAY...BUT WITH A VERY COLD GROUND AND LARGE SNOW
PACK THE SURFACE ITSELF WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND. THERE IS A HIGH
THREAT THURSDAY FOR A PERIOD OF ICE ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA. THE
REAL HEADACHE COMES FROM THE FACT THAT SENSORS MAY SHOW TEMPS
ABOVE 32...BUT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED GROUND CONDITIONS...RAIN
WILL FREEZE AS IT CONTACTS THE SURFACE. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
GFS AND NAM FOR PRECIP TYPE...BUT THE KEY WILL BE TO FIGURE OUT
THE SURFACE TEMPS...WHICH WILL BE NO EASY TASK.

COLD FRONT QUICKLY CLEARS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE REGION. LOW AND MID-LEVEL
THICKNESS QUICKLY RESPOND AND EXPECT AN ATMOSPHERE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ALL SNOW BY 06Z FRIDAY. BY THIS TIME...MOST...IF NOT ALL
OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...WITH STRONG CAA AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVEN WITH
LOWERING INVERSIONS AND A FROZEN LAKE ERIE. SNOW GROWTH ZONES RAPIDLY
DROP FRIDAY...SO UNTIL THE LOWER LAYERS DRY OUT...THE THREAT FOR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL FOCUS
HIGHEST POPS ON THE RIDGES AND FAR NORTH.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY TO OCCUR IN THE EARLY MORNING WITH A
STEADY DECLINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER AIR SLOWLY WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH. SNOW SHOWERS/MVFR LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY GONE BY
10Z OR SO. MGW/LBE MAY BE THE LAST TO GO SKC. VFR THEREAFTER WITH
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
AFTER 03Z THURSDAY. CL

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280936
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
436 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY BUT COLD DAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AND SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE...BUT IT WILL STILL BE PLENTY COLD HERE. WOULD EXPECT TO
SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SOUTHWARD UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.

EVEN WITH SUNSHINE TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND WAA WILL BE ONGOING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK. TEMPS WILL START
TO SLOWLY RISE AS DAYBREAK APPROACHES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. NEXT SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY MORNING
REACHING WESTERN OHIO BY MIDDAY. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN THE FORECAST GETS REAL TRICKY.
WAA CONTINUES AHEAD OF BOUNDARY AS LOW LEVEL JET WILL PULL WARMER
AIR NORTHWARD. LOW AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESS QUICKLY RISE TO LEVELS
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS
CORRECT...THIS WARMING MAY ENVELOP THE WHOLE AREA. TEMPERATURE
WILL RISE THURSDAY...BUT WITH A VERY COLD GROUND AND LARGE SNOW
PACK THE SURFACE ITSELF WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND. THERE IS A HIGH
THREAT THURSDAY FOR A PERIOD OF ICE ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA. THE
REAL HEADACHE COMES FROM THE FACT THAT SENSORS MAY SHOW TEMPS
ABOVE 32...BUT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED GROUND CONDITIONS...RAIN
WILL FREEZE AS IT CONTACTS THE SURFACE. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
GFS AND NAM FOR PRECIP TYPE...BUT THE KEY WILL BE TO FIGURE OUT
THE SURFACE TEMPS...WHICH WILL BE NO EASY TASK.

COLD FRONT QUICKLY CLEARS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE REGION. LOW AND MID-LEVEL
THICKNESS QUICKLY RESPOND AND EXPECT AN ATMOSPHERE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ALL SNOW BY 06Z FRIDAY. BY THIS TIME...MOST...IF NOT ALL
OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...WITH STRONG CAA AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVEN WITH
LOWERING INVERSIONS AND A FROZEN LAKE ERIE. SNOW GROWTH ZONES RAPIDLY
DROP FRIDAY...SO UNTIL THE LOWER LAYERS DRY OUT...THE THREAT FOR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL FOCUS
HIGHEST POPS ON THE RIDGES AND FAR NORTH.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY TO OCCUR IN THE EARLY MORNING WITH A
STEADY DECLINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER AIR SLOWLY WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH. SNOW SHOWERS/MVFR LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY GONE BY
10Z OR SO. MGW/LBE MAY BE THE LAST TO GO SKC. VFR THEREAFTER WITH
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
AFTER 03Z THURSDAY. CL

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280936
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
436 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY BUT COLD DAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AND SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE...BUT IT WILL STILL BE PLENTY COLD HERE. WOULD EXPECT TO
SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SOUTHWARD UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.

EVEN WITH SUNSHINE TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND WAA WILL BE ONGOING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK. TEMPS WILL START
TO SLOWLY RISE AS DAYBREAK APPROACHES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. NEXT SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY MORNING
REACHING WESTERN OHIO BY MIDDAY. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN THE FORECAST GETS REAL TRICKY.
WAA CONTINUES AHEAD OF BOUNDARY AS LOW LEVEL JET WILL PULL WARMER
AIR NORTHWARD. LOW AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESS QUICKLY RISE TO LEVELS
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS
CORRECT...THIS WARMING MAY ENVELOP THE WHOLE AREA. TEMPERATURE
WILL RISE THURSDAY...BUT WITH A VERY COLD GROUND AND LARGE SNOW
PACK THE SURFACE ITSELF WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND. THERE IS A HIGH
THREAT THURSDAY FOR A PERIOD OF ICE ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA. THE
REAL HEADACHE COMES FROM THE FACT THAT SENSORS MAY SHOW TEMPS
ABOVE 32...BUT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED GROUND CONDITIONS...RAIN
WILL FREEZE AS IT CONTACTS THE SURFACE. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
GFS AND NAM FOR PRECIP TYPE...BUT THE KEY WILL BE TO FIGURE OUT
THE SURFACE TEMPS...WHICH WILL BE NO EASY TASK.

COLD FRONT QUICKLY CLEARS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE REGION. LOW AND MID-LEVEL
THICKNESS QUICKLY RESPOND AND EXPECT AN ATMOSPHERE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ALL SNOW BY 06Z FRIDAY. BY THIS TIME...MOST...IF NOT ALL
OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...WITH STRONG CAA AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVEN WITH
LOWERING INVERSIONS AND A FROZEN LAKE ERIE. SNOW GROWTH ZONES RAPIDLY
DROP FRIDAY...SO UNTIL THE LOWER LAYERS DRY OUT...THE THREAT FOR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL FOCUS
HIGHEST POPS ON THE RIDGES AND FAR NORTH.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY TO OCCUR IN THE EARLY MORNING WITH A
STEADY DECLINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER AIR SLOWLY WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH. SNOW SHOWERS/MVFR LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY GONE BY
10Z OR SO. MGW/LBE MAY BE THE LAST TO GO SKC. VFR THEREAFTER WITH
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
AFTER 03Z THURSDAY. CL

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280936
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
436 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY BUT COLD DAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AND SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE...BUT IT WILL STILL BE PLENTY COLD HERE. WOULD EXPECT TO
SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SOUTHWARD UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.

EVEN WITH SUNSHINE TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND WAA WILL BE ONGOING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK. TEMPS WILL START
TO SLOWLY RISE AS DAYBREAK APPROACHES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. NEXT SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY MORNING
REACHING WESTERN OHIO BY MIDDAY. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN THE FORECAST GETS REAL TRICKY.
WAA CONTINUES AHEAD OF BOUNDARY AS LOW LEVEL JET WILL PULL WARMER
AIR NORTHWARD. LOW AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESS QUICKLY RISE TO LEVELS
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS
CORRECT...THIS WARMING MAY ENVELOP THE WHOLE AREA. TEMPERATURE
WILL RISE THURSDAY...BUT WITH A VERY COLD GROUND AND LARGE SNOW
PACK THE SURFACE ITSELF WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND. THERE IS A HIGH
THREAT THURSDAY FOR A PERIOD OF ICE ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA. THE
REAL HEADACHE COMES FROM THE FACT THAT SENSORS MAY SHOW TEMPS
ABOVE 32...BUT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED GROUND CONDITIONS...RAIN
WILL FREEZE AS IT CONTACTS THE SURFACE. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
GFS AND NAM FOR PRECIP TYPE...BUT THE KEY WILL BE TO FIGURE OUT
THE SURFACE TEMPS...WHICH WILL BE NO EASY TASK.

COLD FRONT QUICKLY CLEARS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE REGION. LOW AND MID-LEVEL
THICKNESS QUICKLY RESPOND AND EXPECT AN ATMOSPHERE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ALL SNOW BY 06Z FRIDAY. BY THIS TIME...MOST...IF NOT ALL
OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...WITH STRONG CAA AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVEN WITH
LOWERING INVERSIONS AND A FROZEN LAKE ERIE. SNOW GROWTH ZONES RAPIDLY
DROP FRIDAY...SO UNTIL THE LOWER LAYERS DRY OUT...THE THREAT FOR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL FOCUS
HIGHEST POPS ON THE RIDGES AND FAR NORTH.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY TO OCCUR IN THE EARLY MORNING WITH A
STEADY DECLINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER AIR SLOWLY WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH. SNOW SHOWERS/MVFR LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY GONE BY
10Z OR SO. MGW/LBE MAY BE THE LAST TO GO SKC. VFR THEREAFTER WITH
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
AFTER 03Z THURSDAY. CL

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280936
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
436 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY BUT COLD DAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AND SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE...BUT IT WILL STILL BE PLENTY COLD HERE. WOULD EXPECT TO
SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SOUTHWARD UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.

EVEN WITH SUNSHINE TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND WAA WILL BE ONGOING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK. TEMPS WILL START
TO SLOWLY RISE AS DAYBREAK APPROACHES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. NEXT SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY MORNING
REACHING WESTERN OHIO BY MIDDAY. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN THE FORECAST GETS REAL TRICKY.
WAA CONTINUES AHEAD OF BOUNDARY AS LOW LEVEL JET WILL PULL WARMER
AIR NORTHWARD. LOW AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESS QUICKLY RISE TO LEVELS
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS
CORRECT...THIS WARMING MAY ENVELOP THE WHOLE AREA. TEMPERATURE
WILL RISE THURSDAY...BUT WITH A VERY COLD GROUND AND LARGE SNOW
PACK THE SURFACE ITSELF WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND. THERE IS A HIGH
THREAT THURSDAY FOR A PERIOD OF ICE ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA. THE
REAL HEADACHE COMES FROM THE FACT THAT SENSORS MAY SHOW TEMPS
ABOVE 32...BUT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED GROUND CONDITIONS...RAIN
WILL FREEZE AS IT CONTACTS THE SURFACE. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
GFS AND NAM FOR PRECIP TYPE...BUT THE KEY WILL BE TO FIGURE OUT
THE SURFACE TEMPS...WHICH WILL BE NO EASY TASK.

COLD FRONT QUICKLY CLEARS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE REGION. LOW AND MID-LEVEL
THICKNESS QUICKLY RESPOND AND EXPECT AN ATMOSPHERE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ALL SNOW BY 06Z FRIDAY. BY THIS TIME...MOST...IF NOT ALL
OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...WITH STRONG CAA AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVEN WITH
LOWERING INVERSIONS AND A FROZEN LAKE ERIE. SNOW GROWTH ZONES RAPIDLY
DROP FRIDAY...SO UNTIL THE LOWER LAYERS DRY OUT...THE THREAT FOR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL FOCUS
HIGHEST POPS ON THE RIDGES AND FAR NORTH.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY TO OCCUR IN THE EARLY MORNING WITH A
STEADY DECLINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER AIR SLOWLY WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH. SNOW SHOWERS/MVFR LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY GONE BY
10Z OR SO. MGW/LBE MAY BE THE LAST TO GO SKC. VFR THEREAFTER WITH
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
AFTER 03Z THURSDAY. CL

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPHI 280911
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
411 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AND CAUSE AN ARCTIC FRONT TO CROSS OUR REGION. MORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A STORM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AFFECT THE AREA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE STRONG COASTAL STORM THAT BROUGHT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO NEW
ENGLAND IS LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS PRODUCING A SUSTAINED
NORTHWEST OF 10-20 MPH WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC. TODAY WILL START OUT WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE LOWEST REPORTED WIND CHILL EARLY
THIS MORNING WAS -11F AT MPO.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTANT WIND FIELD WILL GRADUALLY RELAX
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE COASTAL LOW WEAKENS TO
OUR NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. FULL
SUNSHINE AND ADIABATIC WARMING ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SHOULD ALL HELP MODERATE THE AIRMASS A BIT. NONETHELESS, WE ARE IN
STORE FOR ANOTHER COLDER THAN NORMAL DAY. FOR THE MAX TEMP FORECAST,
TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE AND EVEN ABOVE GUIDANCE IN
SOME PLACES AFTER FACTORING A 2-3F DEGREE MODEL COLD BIAS YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
HEIGHT RISES WILL OCCUR ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER RIDGE PROGRESSES EASTWARD. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVERHEAD DURING
THE OVERNIGHT.

MIN TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN
DECOUPLE. ONCE DECOUPLING HAPPENS, AIRMASS WILL RADIATE QUITE
EFFECTIVELY UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. THE OFFICIAL MIN TEMP
FORECAST IS ON THE COLD ENVELOPE OF MODEL GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP AND WITH A FRESH SNOWPACK. MIN
TEMPS ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND EAST OF I-95 AND LOW TO MID
TEENS IN THE CITIES AND ALONG THE COAST/DELMARVA WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TAKE THE LONGEST TO WEAKEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THU THRU FRIDAY...A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THU MORNING WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THU NIGHT
AND THEN DEEPEN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A
WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS MOSTLY THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
POPS WERE RAISED A BIT WITH BOTH THE EC AND GFS MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT. THE GFS 00Z IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES IN THE (MOSTLY LIKELY) PRECIPITATION AREAS SUPPORT SNOW
WITH AMTS PROBABLY IN THE 1 INCH RANGE IN MOST AREAS. A COUPLE 2
INCH AMTS POSSIBLE FAR NORTH OVER NRN NJ OR THE SRN POCONOS. WE HAVE
GONE ALONG WITH THE TOTALS WHICH ARE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST WWD.
WINDS AND BECOMING VERY COLD LATER FRIDAY WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND TEENS OVER PHL AND DELMARVA BY
EVENING.

FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND REMAINS FOR
THE WEEKEND. BITTER COLD SAT WITH TEMPS SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS SUN...BUT STILL MOSTLY 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FLAGS FOR WIND CHILL POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT AND
SAT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

SUN AFTERNOON THRU MON NIGHT...MORE WEATHER ACTION AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM EMERGES FROM THE ROCKIES SAT NIGHT THEN TRACKS UP THE OHIO
VALLEY AND ACROSS OUR AREA SUN NIGHT/MONDAY. THE SYSTEM IS SHOWN
SCOOPING UP PLENTY OF MOISTURE BEFORE IT ARRIVES. THE GFS SHOWS A
TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...THE EC JUST SOUTH. TEMPS AND POPS
MOSTLY WPC LIKE WITH A FEW ADJUSTMENTS FOR BETTER ISC COORDINATION.
CHC SNOW SUN AFTERNOON...THEN LIKELY SNOW SUN NIGHT. SNOW CHANGES TO
RAIN S/E I-95 MONDAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF REFINEMENTS...SO THIS
IS THE BEST FCST FOR NOW. PAY ATTENTION TO THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

TUE...ANOTHER DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER PLUNGE OF
ARCTIC AIR FOR TUE AND PROBABLY INTO WED. TEMPS POSSIBLY 10 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. NW WINDS 10-15 KT WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT THIS
MORNING AND 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THU...MOSTLY VFR. LOWER CONDITIONS WITH SNOW POSSIBLE WEST LATE.
THU NIGHT THRU FRI...LOWER CONDITIONS WITH PCPN THU NIGHT.
  LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY FRI WITH GUSTY WINDS.
FRI NIGHT THRU SUN...MOSTLY VFR. SMALL CHC FOR SNOW SUN AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS TODAY. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO
EXTEND THE ENDING TIME OF THE SCA FOR THE DE BAY TO 6 PM (MATCHING
THE ENDING TIME OF THE COASTAL WATERS) AS THE NW DIRECTION WILL
CHANNEL DOWN THE BAY, ENHANCING WIND SPEEDS TO NEAR 25 KT. WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE VERIFIED 1-2 FT TOO LOW WITH WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE COASTAL
ZONES, SO INCREASED SEAS A BIT TO 5-8 FT FOR THIS MORNING.

NW WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT. NO MARINE HAZARDS ARE
EXPECTED OTHER THAN LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.
THU NIGHT...BUILDING WINDS/SEAS SCA CONDITIONS.
FRI/FRI NIGHT...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
SAT...GALE CONDITIONS DIMINISHING BACK TO SCA CONDITIONS.




&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 280911
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
411 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AND CAUSE AN ARCTIC FRONT TO CROSS OUR REGION. MORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A STORM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AFFECT THE AREA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE STRONG COASTAL STORM THAT BROUGHT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO NEW
ENGLAND IS LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS PRODUCING A SUSTAINED
NORTHWEST OF 10-20 MPH WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC. TODAY WILL START OUT WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE LOWEST REPORTED WIND CHILL EARLY
THIS MORNING WAS -11F AT MPO.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTANT WIND FIELD WILL GRADUALLY RELAX
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE COASTAL LOW WEAKENS TO
OUR NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. FULL
SUNSHINE AND ADIABATIC WARMING ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SHOULD ALL HELP MODERATE THE AIRMASS A BIT. NONETHELESS, WE ARE IN
STORE FOR ANOTHER COLDER THAN NORMAL DAY. FOR THE MAX TEMP FORECAST,
TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE AND EVEN ABOVE GUIDANCE IN
SOME PLACES AFTER FACTORING A 2-3F DEGREE MODEL COLD BIAS YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
HEIGHT RISES WILL OCCUR ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER RIDGE PROGRESSES EASTWARD. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVERHEAD DURING
THE OVERNIGHT.

MIN TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN
DECOUPLE. ONCE DECOUPLING HAPPENS, AIRMASS WILL RADIATE QUITE
EFFECTIVELY UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. THE OFFICIAL MIN TEMP
FORECAST IS ON THE COLD ENVELOPE OF MODEL GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP AND WITH A FRESH SNOWPACK. MIN
TEMPS ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND EAST OF I-95 AND LOW TO MID
TEENS IN THE CITIES AND ALONG THE COAST/DELMARVA WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TAKE THE LONGEST TO WEAKEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THU THRU FRIDAY...A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THU MORNING WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THU NIGHT
AND THEN DEEPEN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A
WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS MOSTLY THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
POPS WERE RAISED A BIT WITH BOTH THE EC AND GFS MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT. THE GFS 00Z IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES IN THE (MOSTLY LIKELY) PRECIPITATION AREAS SUPPORT SNOW
WITH AMTS PROBABLY IN THE 1 INCH RANGE IN MOST AREAS. A COUPLE 2
INCH AMTS POSSIBLE FAR NORTH OVER NRN NJ OR THE SRN POCONOS. WE HAVE
GONE ALONG WITH THE TOTALS WHICH ARE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST WWD.
WINDS AND BECOMING VERY COLD LATER FRIDAY WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND TEENS OVER PHL AND DELMARVA BY
EVENING.

FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND REMAINS FOR
THE WEEKEND. BITTER COLD SAT WITH TEMPS SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS SUN...BUT STILL MOSTLY 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FLAGS FOR WIND CHILL POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT AND
SAT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

SUN AFTERNOON THRU MON NIGHT...MORE WEATHER ACTION AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM EMERGES FROM THE ROCKIES SAT NIGHT THEN TRACKS UP THE OHIO
VALLEY AND ACROSS OUR AREA SUN NIGHT/MONDAY. THE SYSTEM IS SHOWN
SCOOPING UP PLENTY OF MOISTURE BEFORE IT ARRIVES. THE GFS SHOWS A
TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...THE EC JUST SOUTH. TEMPS AND POPS
MOSTLY WPC LIKE WITH A FEW ADJUSTMENTS FOR BETTER ISC COORDINATION.
CHC SNOW SUN AFTERNOON...THEN LIKELY SNOW SUN NIGHT. SNOW CHANGES TO
RAIN S/E I-95 MONDAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF REFINEMENTS...SO THIS
IS THE BEST FCST FOR NOW. PAY ATTENTION TO THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

TUE...ANOTHER DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER PLUNGE OF
ARCTIC AIR FOR TUE AND PROBABLY INTO WED. TEMPS POSSIBLY 10 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. NW WINDS 10-15 KT WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT THIS
MORNING AND 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THU...MOSTLY VFR. LOWER CONDITIONS WITH SNOW POSSIBLE WEST LATE.
THU NIGHT THRU FRI...LOWER CONDITIONS WITH PCPN THU NIGHT.
  LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY FRI WITH GUSTY WINDS.
FRI NIGHT THRU SUN...MOSTLY VFR. SMALL CHC FOR SNOW SUN AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS TODAY. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO
EXTEND THE ENDING TIME OF THE SCA FOR THE DE BAY TO 6 PM (MATCHING
THE ENDING TIME OF THE COASTAL WATERS) AS THE NW DIRECTION WILL
CHANNEL DOWN THE BAY, ENHANCING WIND SPEEDS TO NEAR 25 KT. WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE VERIFIED 1-2 FT TOO LOW WITH WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE COASTAL
ZONES, SO INCREASED SEAS A BIT TO 5-8 FT FOR THIS MORNING.

NW WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT. NO MARINE HAZARDS ARE
EXPECTED OTHER THAN LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.
THU NIGHT...BUILDING WINDS/SEAS SCA CONDITIONS.
FRI/FRI NIGHT...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
SAT...GALE CONDITIONS DIMINISHING BACK TO SCA CONDITIONS.




&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 280911
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
411 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AND CAUSE AN ARCTIC FRONT TO CROSS OUR REGION. MORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A STORM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AFFECT THE AREA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE STRONG COASTAL STORM THAT BROUGHT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO NEW
ENGLAND IS LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS PRODUCING A SUSTAINED
NORTHWEST OF 10-20 MPH WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC. TODAY WILL START OUT WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE LOWEST REPORTED WIND CHILL EARLY
THIS MORNING WAS -11F AT MPO.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTANT WIND FIELD WILL GRADUALLY RELAX
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE COASTAL LOW WEAKENS TO
OUR NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. FULL
SUNSHINE AND ADIABATIC WARMING ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SHOULD ALL HELP MODERATE THE AIRMASS A BIT. NONETHELESS, WE ARE IN
STORE FOR ANOTHER COLDER THAN NORMAL DAY. FOR THE MAX TEMP FORECAST,
TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE AND EVEN ABOVE GUIDANCE IN
SOME PLACES AFTER FACTORING A 2-3F DEGREE MODEL COLD BIAS YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
HEIGHT RISES WILL OCCUR ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER RIDGE PROGRESSES EASTWARD. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVERHEAD DURING
THE OVERNIGHT.

MIN TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN
DECOUPLE. ONCE DECOUPLING HAPPENS, AIRMASS WILL RADIATE QUITE
EFFECTIVELY UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. THE OFFICIAL MIN TEMP
FORECAST IS ON THE COLD ENVELOPE OF MODEL GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP AND WITH A FRESH SNOWPACK. MIN
TEMPS ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND EAST OF I-95 AND LOW TO MID
TEENS IN THE CITIES AND ALONG THE COAST/DELMARVA WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TAKE THE LONGEST TO WEAKEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THU THRU FRIDAY...A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THU MORNING WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THU NIGHT
AND THEN DEEPEN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A
WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS MOSTLY THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
POPS WERE RAISED A BIT WITH BOTH THE EC AND GFS MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT. THE GFS 00Z IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES IN THE (MOSTLY LIKELY) PRECIPITATION AREAS SUPPORT SNOW
WITH AMTS PROBABLY IN THE 1 INCH RANGE IN MOST AREAS. A COUPLE 2
INCH AMTS POSSIBLE FAR NORTH OVER NRN NJ OR THE SRN POCONOS. WE HAVE
GONE ALONG WITH THE TOTALS WHICH ARE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST WWD.
WINDS AND BECOMING VERY COLD LATER FRIDAY WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND TEENS OVER PHL AND DELMARVA BY
EVENING.

FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND REMAINS FOR
THE WEEKEND. BITTER COLD SAT WITH TEMPS SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS SUN...BUT STILL MOSTLY 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FLAGS FOR WIND CHILL POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT AND
SAT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

SUN AFTERNOON THRU MON NIGHT...MORE WEATHER ACTION AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM EMERGES FROM THE ROCKIES SAT NIGHT THEN TRACKS UP THE OHIO
VALLEY AND ACROSS OUR AREA SUN NIGHT/MONDAY. THE SYSTEM IS SHOWN
SCOOPING UP PLENTY OF MOISTURE BEFORE IT ARRIVES. THE GFS SHOWS A
TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...THE EC JUST SOUTH. TEMPS AND POPS
MOSTLY WPC LIKE WITH A FEW ADJUSTMENTS FOR BETTER ISC COORDINATION.
CHC SNOW SUN AFTERNOON...THEN LIKELY SNOW SUN NIGHT. SNOW CHANGES TO
RAIN S/E I-95 MONDAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF REFINEMENTS...SO THIS
IS THE BEST FCST FOR NOW. PAY ATTENTION TO THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

TUE...ANOTHER DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER PLUNGE OF
ARCTIC AIR FOR TUE AND PROBABLY INTO WED. TEMPS POSSIBLY 10 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. NW WINDS 10-15 KT WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT THIS
MORNING AND 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THU...MOSTLY VFR. LOWER CONDITIONS WITH SNOW POSSIBLE WEST LATE.
THU NIGHT THRU FRI...LOWER CONDITIONS WITH PCPN THU NIGHT.
  LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY FRI WITH GUSTY WINDS.
FRI NIGHT THRU SUN...MOSTLY VFR. SMALL CHC FOR SNOW SUN AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS TODAY. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO
EXTEND THE ENDING TIME OF THE SCA FOR THE DE BAY TO 6 PM (MATCHING
THE ENDING TIME OF THE COASTAL WATERS) AS THE NW DIRECTION WILL
CHANNEL DOWN THE BAY, ENHANCING WIND SPEEDS TO NEAR 25 KT. WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE VERIFIED 1-2 FT TOO LOW WITH WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE COASTAL
ZONES, SO INCREASED SEAS A BIT TO 5-8 FT FOR THIS MORNING.

NW WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT. NO MARINE HAZARDS ARE
EXPECTED OTHER THAN LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.
THU NIGHT...BUILDING WINDS/SEAS SCA CONDITIONS.
FRI/FRI NIGHT...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
SAT...GALE CONDITIONS DIMINISHING BACK TO SCA CONDITIONS.




&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 280911
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
411 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AND CAUSE AN ARCTIC FRONT TO CROSS OUR REGION. MORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A STORM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AFFECT THE AREA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE STRONG COASTAL STORM THAT BROUGHT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO NEW
ENGLAND IS LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS PRODUCING A SUSTAINED
NORTHWEST OF 10-20 MPH WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC. TODAY WILL START OUT WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE LOWEST REPORTED WIND CHILL EARLY
THIS MORNING WAS -11F AT MPO.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTANT WIND FIELD WILL GRADUALLY RELAX
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE COASTAL LOW WEAKENS TO
OUR NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. FULL
SUNSHINE AND ADIABATIC WARMING ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SHOULD ALL HELP MODERATE THE AIRMASS A BIT. NONETHELESS, WE ARE IN
STORE FOR ANOTHER COLDER THAN NORMAL DAY. FOR THE MAX TEMP FORECAST,
TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE AND EVEN ABOVE GUIDANCE IN
SOME PLACES AFTER FACTORING A 2-3F DEGREE MODEL COLD BIAS YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
HEIGHT RISES WILL OCCUR ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER RIDGE PROGRESSES EASTWARD. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVERHEAD DURING
THE OVERNIGHT.

MIN TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN
DECOUPLE. ONCE DECOUPLING HAPPENS, AIRMASS WILL RADIATE QUITE
EFFECTIVELY UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. THE OFFICIAL MIN TEMP
FORECAST IS ON THE COLD ENVELOPE OF MODEL GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP AND WITH A FRESH SNOWPACK. MIN
TEMPS ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND EAST OF I-95 AND LOW TO MID
TEENS IN THE CITIES AND ALONG THE COAST/DELMARVA WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TAKE THE LONGEST TO WEAKEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THU THRU FRIDAY...A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THU MORNING WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THU NIGHT
AND THEN DEEPEN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A
WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS MOSTLY THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
POPS WERE RAISED A BIT WITH BOTH THE EC AND GFS MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT. THE GFS 00Z IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES IN THE (MOSTLY LIKELY) PRECIPITATION AREAS SUPPORT SNOW
WITH AMTS PROBABLY IN THE 1 INCH RANGE IN MOST AREAS. A COUPLE 2
INCH AMTS POSSIBLE FAR NORTH OVER NRN NJ OR THE SRN POCONOS. WE HAVE
GONE ALONG WITH THE TOTALS WHICH ARE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST WWD.
WINDS AND BECOMING VERY COLD LATER FRIDAY WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND TEENS OVER PHL AND DELMARVA BY
EVENING.

FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND REMAINS FOR
THE WEEKEND. BITTER COLD SAT WITH TEMPS SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS SUN...BUT STILL MOSTLY 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FLAGS FOR WIND CHILL POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT AND
SAT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

SUN AFTERNOON THRU MON NIGHT...MORE WEATHER ACTION AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM EMERGES FROM THE ROCKIES SAT NIGHT THEN TRACKS UP THE OHIO
VALLEY AND ACROSS OUR AREA SUN NIGHT/MONDAY. THE SYSTEM IS SHOWN
SCOOPING UP PLENTY OF MOISTURE BEFORE IT ARRIVES. THE GFS SHOWS A
TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...THE EC JUST SOUTH. TEMPS AND POPS
MOSTLY WPC LIKE WITH A FEW ADJUSTMENTS FOR BETTER ISC COORDINATION.
CHC SNOW SUN AFTERNOON...THEN LIKELY SNOW SUN NIGHT. SNOW CHANGES TO
RAIN S/E I-95 MONDAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF REFINEMENTS...SO THIS
IS THE BEST FCST FOR NOW. PAY ATTENTION TO THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

TUE...ANOTHER DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER PLUNGE OF
ARCTIC AIR FOR TUE AND PROBABLY INTO WED. TEMPS POSSIBLY 10 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. NW WINDS 10-15 KT WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT THIS
MORNING AND 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THU...MOSTLY VFR. LOWER CONDITIONS WITH SNOW POSSIBLE WEST LATE.
THU NIGHT THRU FRI...LOWER CONDITIONS WITH PCPN THU NIGHT.
  LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY FRI WITH GUSTY WINDS.
FRI NIGHT THRU SUN...MOSTLY VFR. SMALL CHC FOR SNOW SUN AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS TODAY. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO
EXTEND THE ENDING TIME OF THE SCA FOR THE DE BAY TO 6 PM (MATCHING
THE ENDING TIME OF THE COASTAL WATERS) AS THE NW DIRECTION WILL
CHANNEL DOWN THE BAY, ENHANCING WIND SPEEDS TO NEAR 25 KT. WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE VERIFIED 1-2 FT TOO LOW WITH WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE COASTAL
ZONES, SO INCREASED SEAS A BIT TO 5-8 FT FOR THIS MORNING.

NW WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT. NO MARINE HAZARDS ARE
EXPECTED OTHER THAN LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.
THU NIGHT...BUILDING WINDS/SEAS SCA CONDITIONS.
FRI/FRI NIGHT...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
SAT...GALE CONDITIONS DIMINISHING BACK TO SCA CONDITIONS.




&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 280911
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
411 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AND CAUSE AN ARCTIC FRONT TO CROSS OUR REGION. MORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A STORM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AFFECT THE AREA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE STRONG COASTAL STORM THAT BROUGHT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO NEW
ENGLAND IS LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS PRODUCING A SUSTAINED
NORTHWEST OF 10-20 MPH WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC. TODAY WILL START OUT WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE LOWEST REPORTED WIND CHILL EARLY
THIS MORNING WAS -11F AT MPO.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTANT WIND FIELD WILL GRADUALLY RELAX
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE COASTAL LOW WEAKENS TO
OUR NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. FULL
SUNSHINE AND ADIABATIC WARMING ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SHOULD ALL HELP MODERATE THE AIRMASS A BIT. NONETHELESS, WE ARE IN
STORE FOR ANOTHER COLDER THAN NORMAL DAY. FOR THE MAX TEMP FORECAST,
TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE AND EVEN ABOVE GUIDANCE IN
SOME PLACES AFTER FACTORING A 2-3F DEGREE MODEL COLD BIAS YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
HEIGHT RISES WILL OCCUR ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER RIDGE PROGRESSES EASTWARD. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVERHEAD DURING
THE OVERNIGHT.

MIN TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN
DECOUPLE. ONCE DECOUPLING HAPPENS, AIRMASS WILL RADIATE QUITE
EFFECTIVELY UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. THE OFFICIAL MIN TEMP
FORECAST IS ON THE COLD ENVELOPE OF MODEL GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP AND WITH A FRESH SNOWPACK. MIN
TEMPS ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND EAST OF I-95 AND LOW TO MID
TEENS IN THE CITIES AND ALONG THE COAST/DELMARVA WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TAKE THE LONGEST TO WEAKEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THU THRU FRIDAY...A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THU MORNING WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THU NIGHT
AND THEN DEEPEN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A
WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS MOSTLY THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
POPS WERE RAISED A BIT WITH BOTH THE EC AND GFS MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT. THE GFS 00Z IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES IN THE (MOSTLY LIKELY) PRECIPITATION AREAS SUPPORT SNOW
WITH AMTS PROBABLY IN THE 1 INCH RANGE IN MOST AREAS. A COUPLE 2
INCH AMTS POSSIBLE FAR NORTH OVER NRN NJ OR THE SRN POCONOS. WE HAVE
GONE ALONG WITH THE TOTALS WHICH ARE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST WWD.
WINDS AND BECOMING VERY COLD LATER FRIDAY WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND TEENS OVER PHL AND DELMARVA BY
EVENING.

FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND REMAINS FOR
THE WEEKEND. BITTER COLD SAT WITH TEMPS SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS SUN...BUT STILL MOSTLY 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FLAGS FOR WIND CHILL POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT AND
SAT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

SUN AFTERNOON THRU MON NIGHT...MORE WEATHER ACTION AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM EMERGES FROM THE ROCKIES SAT NIGHT THEN TRACKS UP THE OHIO
VALLEY AND ACROSS OUR AREA SUN NIGHT/MONDAY. THE SYSTEM IS SHOWN
SCOOPING UP PLENTY OF MOISTURE BEFORE IT ARRIVES. THE GFS SHOWS A
TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...THE EC JUST SOUTH. TEMPS AND POPS
MOSTLY WPC LIKE WITH A FEW ADJUSTMENTS FOR BETTER ISC COORDINATION.
CHC SNOW SUN AFTERNOON...THEN LIKELY SNOW SUN NIGHT. SNOW CHANGES TO
RAIN S/E I-95 MONDAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF REFINEMENTS...SO THIS
IS THE BEST FCST FOR NOW. PAY ATTENTION TO THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

TUE...ANOTHER DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER PLUNGE OF
ARCTIC AIR FOR TUE AND PROBABLY INTO WED. TEMPS POSSIBLY 10 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. NW WINDS 10-15 KT WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT THIS
MORNING AND 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THU...MOSTLY VFR. LOWER CONDITIONS WITH SNOW POSSIBLE WEST LATE.
THU NIGHT THRU FRI...LOWER CONDITIONS WITH PCPN THU NIGHT.
  LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY FRI WITH GUSTY WINDS.
FRI NIGHT THRU SUN...MOSTLY VFR. SMALL CHC FOR SNOW SUN AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS TODAY. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO
EXTEND THE ENDING TIME OF THE SCA FOR THE DE BAY TO 6 PM (MATCHING
THE ENDING TIME OF THE COASTAL WATERS) AS THE NW DIRECTION WILL
CHANNEL DOWN THE BAY, ENHANCING WIND SPEEDS TO NEAR 25 KT. WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE VERIFIED 1-2 FT TOO LOW WITH WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE COASTAL
ZONES, SO INCREASED SEAS A BIT TO 5-8 FT FOR THIS MORNING.

NW WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT. NO MARINE HAZARDS ARE
EXPECTED OTHER THAN LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.
THU NIGHT...BUILDING WINDS/SEAS SCA CONDITIONS.
FRI/FRI NIGHT...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
SAT...GALE CONDITIONS DIMINISHING BACK TO SCA CONDITIONS.




&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 280911
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
411 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AND CAUSE AN ARCTIC FRONT TO CROSS OUR REGION. MORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A STORM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AFFECT THE AREA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE STRONG COASTAL STORM THAT BROUGHT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO NEW
ENGLAND IS LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS PRODUCING A SUSTAINED
NORTHWEST OF 10-20 MPH WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC. TODAY WILL START OUT WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE LOWEST REPORTED WIND CHILL EARLY
THIS MORNING WAS -11F AT MPO.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTANT WIND FIELD WILL GRADUALLY RELAX
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE COASTAL LOW WEAKENS TO
OUR NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. FULL
SUNSHINE AND ADIABATIC WARMING ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SHOULD ALL HELP MODERATE THE AIRMASS A BIT. NONETHELESS, WE ARE IN
STORE FOR ANOTHER COLDER THAN NORMAL DAY. FOR THE MAX TEMP FORECAST,
TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE AND EVEN ABOVE GUIDANCE IN
SOME PLACES AFTER FACTORING A 2-3F DEGREE MODEL COLD BIAS YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
HEIGHT RISES WILL OCCUR ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER RIDGE PROGRESSES EASTWARD. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVERHEAD DURING
THE OVERNIGHT.

MIN TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN
DECOUPLE. ONCE DECOUPLING HAPPENS, AIRMASS WILL RADIATE QUITE
EFFECTIVELY UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. THE OFFICIAL MIN TEMP
FORECAST IS ON THE COLD ENVELOPE OF MODEL GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP AND WITH A FRESH SNOWPACK. MIN
TEMPS ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND EAST OF I-95 AND LOW TO MID
TEENS IN THE CITIES AND ALONG THE COAST/DELMARVA WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TAKE THE LONGEST TO WEAKEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THU THRU FRIDAY...A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THU MORNING WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THU NIGHT
AND THEN DEEPEN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A
WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS MOSTLY THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
POPS WERE RAISED A BIT WITH BOTH THE EC AND GFS MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT. THE GFS 00Z IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES IN THE (MOSTLY LIKELY) PRECIPITATION AREAS SUPPORT SNOW
WITH AMTS PROBABLY IN THE 1 INCH RANGE IN MOST AREAS. A COUPLE 2
INCH AMTS POSSIBLE FAR NORTH OVER NRN NJ OR THE SRN POCONOS. WE HAVE
GONE ALONG WITH THE TOTALS WHICH ARE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST WWD.
WINDS AND BECOMING VERY COLD LATER FRIDAY WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND TEENS OVER PHL AND DELMARVA BY
EVENING.

FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND REMAINS FOR
THE WEEKEND. BITTER COLD SAT WITH TEMPS SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS SUN...BUT STILL MOSTLY 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FLAGS FOR WIND CHILL POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT AND
SAT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

SUN AFTERNOON THRU MON NIGHT...MORE WEATHER ACTION AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM EMERGES FROM THE ROCKIES SAT NIGHT THEN TRACKS UP THE OHIO
VALLEY AND ACROSS OUR AREA SUN NIGHT/MONDAY. THE SYSTEM IS SHOWN
SCOOPING UP PLENTY OF MOISTURE BEFORE IT ARRIVES. THE GFS SHOWS A
TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...THE EC JUST SOUTH. TEMPS AND POPS
MOSTLY WPC LIKE WITH A FEW ADJUSTMENTS FOR BETTER ISC COORDINATION.
CHC SNOW SUN AFTERNOON...THEN LIKELY SNOW SUN NIGHT. SNOW CHANGES TO
RAIN S/E I-95 MONDAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF REFINEMENTS...SO THIS
IS THE BEST FCST FOR NOW. PAY ATTENTION TO THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

TUE...ANOTHER DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER PLUNGE OF
ARCTIC AIR FOR TUE AND PROBABLY INTO WED. TEMPS POSSIBLY 10 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. NW WINDS 10-15 KT WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT THIS
MORNING AND 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THU...MOSTLY VFR. LOWER CONDITIONS WITH SNOW POSSIBLE WEST LATE.
THU NIGHT THRU FRI...LOWER CONDITIONS WITH PCPN THU NIGHT.
  LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY FRI WITH GUSTY WINDS.
FRI NIGHT THRU SUN...MOSTLY VFR. SMALL CHC FOR SNOW SUN AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS TODAY. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO
EXTEND THE ENDING TIME OF THE SCA FOR THE DE BAY TO 6 PM (MATCHING
THE ENDING TIME OF THE COASTAL WATERS) AS THE NW DIRECTION WILL
CHANNEL DOWN THE BAY, ENHANCING WIND SPEEDS TO NEAR 25 KT. WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE VERIFIED 1-2 FT TOO LOW WITH WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE COASTAL
ZONES, SO INCREASED SEAS A BIT TO 5-8 FT FOR THIS MORNING.

NW WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT. NO MARINE HAZARDS ARE
EXPECTED OTHER THAN LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.
THU NIGHT...BUILDING WINDS/SEAS SCA CONDITIONS.
FRI/FRI NIGHT...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
SAT...GALE CONDITIONS DIMINISHING BACK TO SCA CONDITIONS.




&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KLWX 280852
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
352 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING
OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH COASTAL LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW
ENGLAND WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. IN ITS WAKE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC FROM THE WEST. THE
GRADEINT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL CREATE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS
MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TODAY. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
EVEN WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
REACH THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE FOECAST AREA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START
THE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID TEENS CAN BE EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S OVER THE METRO AREAS AND BAY COMMUNITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY FOR THIS
CLIPPER TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION LATER THURSDAY BUT
NONETHELESS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY.
MARGINAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES
IN. UPSLOPE SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT. TO THE EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT MILDER AND
WE HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
DURING THE DAY GENERALLY N AND W OF WASHINGTON DC. AREAS TO THE
SOUTH WILL SEE MOSTLY LIQUID. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING P-TYPES. EITHER WAY...QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHT.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S NORTH AND
UPPER 30S SOUTH WILL BE COMMON.

LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA.
MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH...BUT THERE CAN
BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO THE MASON-DIXON LINE
WHERE PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY AND TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
FREEZING.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER A RETURN OF COLD AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE
INTENSIFIES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...BUT
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THIS TIME.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND AND THE
APPROACHING HIGH WILL BE QUITE STRONG...RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS.
WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CAUSE STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND THIS MAY
COMBINE WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS.
DO FEEL THAT THE AIRMASS WILL BE TOO DRY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACROSS MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A
FEW BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS THAT COULD LEAVE A QUICK
COATING ALONG WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS
TO HAPPEN WOULD BE ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND INTO THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA...CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND GUSTY WINDS
FRIDAY EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE QUITE
COLD WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN NORTHERN
MARYLAND TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TEENS IN WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
THIS SYSTEM MAY CUT TO OUR WEST UP THE APPALACHIANS...AND IF IT
DOES THERE WILL BE WARMER AIR THAT GETS DRAWN INTO THE
SYSTEM. THIS WOULD CAUSE RAIN OR A WINTRY MIX...DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. THESE DETAILS REMAIN
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME SO PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS FOR UPDATES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WITH
DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY. SUB-VFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED WITH
A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AT LEAST FOR
KMRB...KBWI...KMTN...KIAD DURING THE DAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS THURSDAY NIGHT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. GUSTS AROUND
40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE TERMINALS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO DIMINISH. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT
THE TERMINALS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED MUCH OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. THE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN LATER IN THE DAY WITH SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED THURSDAY MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
UPPER PORTION OF THE BAY WITH RAIN SOUTH.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS THURSDAY NIGHT. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE WATERS.
STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A
GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-538>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...BJL/KRW
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/KRW
MARINE...BJL/KRW








000
FXUS61 KLWX 280852
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
352 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING
OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH COASTAL LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW
ENGLAND WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. IN ITS WAKE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC FROM THE WEST. THE
GRADEINT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL CREATE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS
MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TODAY. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
EVEN WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
REACH THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE FOECAST AREA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START
THE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID TEENS CAN BE EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S OVER THE METRO AREAS AND BAY COMMUNITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY FOR THIS
CLIPPER TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION LATER THURSDAY BUT
NONETHELESS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY.
MARGINAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES
IN. UPSLOPE SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT. TO THE EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT MILDER AND
WE HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
DURING THE DAY GENERALLY N AND W OF WASHINGTON DC. AREAS TO THE
SOUTH WILL SEE MOSTLY LIQUID. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING P-TYPES. EITHER WAY...QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHT.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S NORTH AND
UPPER 30S SOUTH WILL BE COMMON.

LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA.
MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH...BUT THERE CAN
BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO THE MASON-DIXON LINE
WHERE PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY AND TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
FREEZING.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER A RETURN OF COLD AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE
INTENSIFIES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...BUT
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THIS TIME.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND AND THE
APPROACHING HIGH WILL BE QUITE STRONG...RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS.
WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CAUSE STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND THIS MAY
COMBINE WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS.
DO FEEL THAT THE AIRMASS WILL BE TOO DRY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACROSS MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A
FEW BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS THAT COULD LEAVE A QUICK
COATING ALONG WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS
TO HAPPEN WOULD BE ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND INTO THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA...CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND GUSTY WINDS
FRIDAY EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE QUITE
COLD WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN NORTHERN
MARYLAND TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TEENS IN WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
THIS SYSTEM MAY CUT TO OUR WEST UP THE APPALACHIANS...AND IF IT
DOES THERE WILL BE WARMER AIR THAT GETS DRAWN INTO THE
SYSTEM. THIS WOULD CAUSE RAIN OR A WINTRY MIX...DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. THESE DETAILS REMAIN
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME SO PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS FOR UPDATES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WITH
DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY. SUB-VFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED WITH
A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AT LEAST FOR
KMRB...KBWI...KMTN...KIAD DURING THE DAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS THURSDAY NIGHT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. GUSTS AROUND
40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE TERMINALS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO DIMINISH. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT
THE TERMINALS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED MUCH OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. THE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN LATER IN THE DAY WITH SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED THURSDAY MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
UPPER PORTION OF THE BAY WITH RAIN SOUTH.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS THURSDAY NIGHT. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE WATERS.
STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A
GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-538>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...BJL/KRW
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/KRW
MARINE...BJL/KRW








000
FXUS61 KLWX 280852
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
352 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING
OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH COASTAL LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW
ENGLAND WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. IN ITS WAKE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC FROM THE WEST. THE
GRADEINT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL CREATE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS
MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TODAY. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
EVEN WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
REACH THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE FOECAST AREA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START
THE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID TEENS CAN BE EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S OVER THE METRO AREAS AND BAY COMMUNITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY FOR THIS
CLIPPER TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION LATER THURSDAY BUT
NONETHELESS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY.
MARGINAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES
IN. UPSLOPE SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT. TO THE EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT MILDER AND
WE HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
DURING THE DAY GENERALLY N AND W OF WASHINGTON DC. AREAS TO THE
SOUTH WILL SEE MOSTLY LIQUID. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING P-TYPES. EITHER WAY...QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHT.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S NORTH AND
UPPER 30S SOUTH WILL BE COMMON.

LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA.
MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH...BUT THERE CAN
BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO THE MASON-DIXON LINE
WHERE PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY AND TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
FREEZING.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER A RETURN OF COLD AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE
INTENSIFIES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...BUT
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THIS TIME.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND AND THE
APPROACHING HIGH WILL BE QUITE STRONG...RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS.
WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CAUSE STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND THIS MAY
COMBINE WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS.
DO FEEL THAT THE AIRMASS WILL BE TOO DRY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACROSS MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A
FEW BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS THAT COULD LEAVE A QUICK
COATING ALONG WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS
TO HAPPEN WOULD BE ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND INTO THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA...CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND GUSTY WINDS
FRIDAY EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE QUITE
COLD WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN NORTHERN
MARYLAND TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TEENS IN WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
THIS SYSTEM MAY CUT TO OUR WEST UP THE APPALACHIANS...AND IF IT
DOES THERE WILL BE WARMER AIR THAT GETS DRAWN INTO THE
SYSTEM. THIS WOULD CAUSE RAIN OR A WINTRY MIX...DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. THESE DETAILS REMAIN
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME SO PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS FOR UPDATES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WITH
DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY. SUB-VFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED WITH
A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AT LEAST FOR
KMRB...KBWI...KMTN...KIAD DURING THE DAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS THURSDAY NIGHT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. GUSTS AROUND
40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE TERMINALS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO DIMINISH. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT
THE TERMINALS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED MUCH OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. THE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN LATER IN THE DAY WITH SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED THURSDAY MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
UPPER PORTION OF THE BAY WITH RAIN SOUTH.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS THURSDAY NIGHT. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE WATERS.
STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A
GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-538>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...BJL/KRW
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/KRW
MARINE...BJL/KRW








000
FXUS61 KLWX 280852
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
352 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING
OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH COASTAL LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW
ENGLAND WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. IN ITS WAKE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC FROM THE WEST. THE
GRADEINT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL CREATE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS
MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TODAY. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
EVEN WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
REACH THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE FOECAST AREA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START
THE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID TEENS CAN BE EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S OVER THE METRO AREAS AND BAY COMMUNITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY FOR THIS
CLIPPER TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION LATER THURSDAY BUT
NONETHELESS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY.
MARGINAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES
IN. UPSLOPE SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT. TO THE EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT MILDER AND
WE HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
DURING THE DAY GENERALLY N AND W OF WASHINGTON DC. AREAS TO THE
SOUTH WILL SEE MOSTLY LIQUID. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING P-TYPES. EITHER WAY...QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHT.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S NORTH AND
UPPER 30S SOUTH WILL BE COMMON.

LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA.
MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH...BUT THERE CAN
BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO THE MASON-DIXON LINE
WHERE PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY AND TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
FREEZING.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER A RETURN OF COLD AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE
INTENSIFIES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...BUT
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THIS TIME.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND AND THE
APPROACHING HIGH WILL BE QUITE STRONG...RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS.
WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CAUSE STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND THIS MAY
COMBINE WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS.
DO FEEL THAT THE AIRMASS WILL BE TOO DRY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACROSS MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A
FEW BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS THAT COULD LEAVE A QUICK
COATING ALONG WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS
TO HAPPEN WOULD BE ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND INTO THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA...CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND GUSTY WINDS
FRIDAY EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE QUITE
COLD WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN NORTHERN
MARYLAND TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TEENS IN WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
THIS SYSTEM MAY CUT TO OUR WEST UP THE APPALACHIANS...AND IF IT
DOES THERE WILL BE WARMER AIR THAT GETS DRAWN INTO THE
SYSTEM. THIS WOULD CAUSE RAIN OR A WINTRY MIX...DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. THESE DETAILS REMAIN
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME SO PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS FOR UPDATES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WITH
DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY. SUB-VFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED WITH
A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AT LEAST FOR
KMRB...KBWI...KMTN...KIAD DURING THE DAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS THURSDAY NIGHT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. GUSTS AROUND
40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE TERMINALS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO DIMINISH. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT
THE TERMINALS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED MUCH OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. THE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN LATER IN THE DAY WITH SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED THURSDAY MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
UPPER PORTION OF THE BAY WITH RAIN SOUTH.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS THURSDAY NIGHT. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE WATERS.
STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A
GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-538>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...BJL/KRW
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/KRW
MARINE...BJL/KRW








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280836
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
336 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE THURSDAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES STRONG COASTAL LOW (~989MB) LIFTING INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE/BAY OF FUNDY AREA TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA EARLY
THIS MORNING. TO THE WEST, ~1026MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
DRIFT EAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, AND IS FORECAST BUILD ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. DID NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WINDS KEEPING TEMPS UP ABOVE GUIDANCE, BUT
DO EXPECT WINDS TO DROP OFF BRIEFLY JUST BEFORE DAWN...AND IN THE
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, EXPECT READINGS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE. THICKNESS TOOLS MESH WELL WITH THE GOING FORECAST,
WITH EXPECTED HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER UPR 30S OVER THE EASTERN SHORE.
CONDITIONS WL REMAIN A BIT BREEZY THROUGH THE AFTN, WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS AVGG 15-20 MPH (GUSTS TO 25) ALONG THE COAST, 5-10 MPH
INLAND. THIS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S THROUGH THE DAY FOR
MOST DESPITE A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD TONIGHT/ERY THURSDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD
YIELD GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS AND A COLDER NIGHT TNGT. EARLY
MORNING LOWS THURSDAY MORNING 15 TO 20 INLAND TO LOWER TO MID 20S
ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING, ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO RETURN AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. NOT MUCH MOISTURE FOR THE SYSTEM TO WORK WITH AS IT
CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THU
AFTN/EVENING, OWING TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THUS, HAVE
KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON THU...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHC TO LOW CHC (20-30%) CHANCE FOR SOME PASSING RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE RICHMOND METRO AREA. ANY SHRAS LATE THU
AFTN/EVENING WOULD BE BRIEF, WITH QPF ON THE ORDER OF A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT BEST. 00Z/28 DATA IS ALSO A BIT QUICKER TO DRY OUT
ANY PCPN OVER THE EASTERN SHORE, SO WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST
OVERNIGHT. FOR HIGHS, PRE-FRONTAL SW FLOW YIELDS A MODEST AND
SHORT LIVED WARM UP ON THU, WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
(WARMEST I-85/US-1 CORRIDOR). ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA LATE THU NGT/FRIDAY MORNING, USHERING IN A SHARPLY COLDER
AND DRIER AIRMASS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR BRISK
WINDS OUT OF THE NW THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT TO
YIELD WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO THE
LOW TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT (SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO ON THE LOWER
EASTERN SHORE).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NRN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS PREVAILING. TROUGH EXITS THE COAST FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY SAT. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE
AROUND -10C (-1 STD DEV). THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
NOW WITH PUSHING THE SFC HIGH OFFSHORE SUN AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
PROGGED TO LIFT FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS SUN...AND NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT. TRAILING
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT. DEEP H85 TROUGH
EXPECTED TO ADVECT MOISTURE NWD FROM THE ERN GULF INTO THE REGION
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING
WINDS ALOFT...WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
THE AREA LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS INTO
THE LOW-MID 40S (POSSIBLY WARMER) SUN...WITH THE COLDEST AIR
REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE
PREDOMINATELY RAIN...BUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE
ONSET AS WAA KICKS IN. HOWEVER...NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALL
RAIN LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH A POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER ACROSS THE
NRN ZONES LATE SAT NIGHT AS COLD AIR PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WLY
PUSH BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN DRYING CONDITIONS MON-
TUES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. BY
TUES...TEMPS FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
REMNANT BKN-OVC CLOUDS AROUND 10 KFT AGL WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SWD AND OUT OF THE AREA BY 28/0900-1000Z...BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR THEREAFTER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH OF A SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN
THE INCOMING HIGH AND THE COASTAL LOW OFF THE NRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST TO PRODUCE BREEZY NNW-N WINDS THROUGH TODAY. WINDS
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM SKIRTS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW) WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64 THURSDAY EVENING. A GOOD SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY WINDS TO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS REMAINS STRONG BTWN LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY/MIDWEST. THE
RESULT IS ONGOING SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS. NW GUSTS UP TO 25
KT OVER THE BAY AND 30 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OBSERVED THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD ALONG THE NE
COAST AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL CAA IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT TO GO ALONG WITH THE ALREADY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT. HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...INTO THE 20-25
KT RANGE IN THE BAY AND 25 TO 30 KT RANGE IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER...GALE CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WILL BE NORTH OF THE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED...RANGING FROM 6-9 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THRU THE
NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THRU THE DAY WEDS
TO 5-7 FT. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY ARRIVES WEDS NIGHT...WITH WINDS
FINALLY DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THRU
THE NIGHT...FALLING BELOW 5 FT LATE WEDS NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND
SLY FLOW BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE WATERS THURS BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS LATE THURS NIGHT. ANOTHER CAA NW SURGE IS
EXPECTED LATE THURS NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WATERS SAT AND SUN IN
ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE WATERS SUN
NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...SAM






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280836
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
336 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE THURSDAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES STRONG COASTAL LOW (~989MB) LIFTING INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE/BAY OF FUNDY AREA TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA EARLY
THIS MORNING. TO THE WEST, ~1026MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
DRIFT EAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, AND IS FORECAST BUILD ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. DID NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WINDS KEEPING TEMPS UP ABOVE GUIDANCE, BUT
DO EXPECT WINDS TO DROP OFF BRIEFLY JUST BEFORE DAWN...AND IN THE
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, EXPECT READINGS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE. THICKNESS TOOLS MESH WELL WITH THE GOING FORECAST,
WITH EXPECTED HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER UPR 30S OVER THE EASTERN SHORE.
CONDITIONS WL REMAIN A BIT BREEZY THROUGH THE AFTN, WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS AVGG 15-20 MPH (GUSTS TO 25) ALONG THE COAST, 5-10 MPH
INLAND. THIS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S THROUGH THE DAY FOR
MOST DESPITE A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD TONIGHT/ERY THURSDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD
YIELD GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS AND A COLDER NIGHT TNGT. EARLY
MORNING LOWS THURSDAY MORNING 15 TO 20 INLAND TO LOWER TO MID 20S
ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING, ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO RETURN AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. NOT MUCH MOISTURE FOR THE SYSTEM TO WORK WITH AS IT
CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THU
AFTN/EVENING, OWING TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THUS, HAVE
KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON THU...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHC TO LOW CHC (20-30%) CHANCE FOR SOME PASSING RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE RICHMOND METRO AREA. ANY SHRAS LATE THU
AFTN/EVENING WOULD BE BRIEF, WITH QPF ON THE ORDER OF A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT BEST. 00Z/28 DATA IS ALSO A BIT QUICKER TO DRY OUT
ANY PCPN OVER THE EASTERN SHORE, SO WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST
OVERNIGHT. FOR HIGHS, PRE-FRONTAL SW FLOW YIELDS A MODEST AND
SHORT LIVED WARM UP ON THU, WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
(WARMEST I-85/US-1 CORRIDOR). ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA LATE THU NGT/FRIDAY MORNING, USHERING IN A SHARPLY COLDER
AND DRIER AIRMASS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR BRISK
WINDS OUT OF THE NW THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT TO
YIELD WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO THE
LOW TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT (SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO ON THE LOWER
EASTERN SHORE).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NRN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS PREVAILING. TROUGH EXITS THE COAST FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY SAT. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE
AROUND -10C (-1 STD DEV). THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
NOW WITH PUSHING THE SFC HIGH OFFSHORE SUN AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
PROGGED TO LIFT FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS SUN...AND NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT. TRAILING
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT. DEEP H85 TROUGH
EXPECTED TO ADVECT MOISTURE NWD FROM THE ERN GULF INTO THE REGION
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING
WINDS ALOFT...WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
THE AREA LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS INTO
THE LOW-MID 40S (POSSIBLY WARMER) SUN...WITH THE COLDEST AIR
REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE
PREDOMINATELY RAIN...BUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE
ONSET AS WAA KICKS IN. HOWEVER...NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALL
RAIN LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH A POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER ACROSS THE
NRN ZONES LATE SAT NIGHT AS COLD AIR PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WLY
PUSH BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN DRYING CONDITIONS MON-
TUES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. BY
TUES...TEMPS FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
REMNANT BKN-OVC CLOUDS AROUND 10 KFT AGL WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SWD AND OUT OF THE AREA BY 28/0900-1000Z...BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR THEREAFTER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH OF A SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN
THE INCOMING HIGH AND THE COASTAL LOW OFF THE NRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST TO PRODUCE BREEZY NNW-N WINDS THROUGH TODAY. WINDS
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM SKIRTS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW) WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64 THURSDAY EVENING. A GOOD SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY WINDS TO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS REMAINS STRONG BTWN LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY/MIDWEST. THE
RESULT IS ONGOING SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS. NW GUSTS UP TO 25
KT OVER THE BAY AND 30 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OBSERVED THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD ALONG THE NE
COAST AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL CAA IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT TO GO ALONG WITH THE ALREADY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT. HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...INTO THE 20-25
KT RANGE IN THE BAY AND 25 TO 30 KT RANGE IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER...GALE CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WILL BE NORTH OF THE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED...RANGING FROM 6-9 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THRU THE
NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THRU THE DAY WEDS
TO 5-7 FT. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY ARRIVES WEDS NIGHT...WITH WINDS
FINALLY DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THRU
THE NIGHT...FALLING BELOW 5 FT LATE WEDS NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND
SLY FLOW BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE WATERS THURS BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS LATE THURS NIGHT. ANOTHER CAA NW SURGE IS
EXPECTED LATE THURS NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WATERS SAT AND SUN IN
ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE WATERS SUN
NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...SAM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280830
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
330 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE THURSDAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES STRONG COASTAL LOW (~989MB) LIFTING INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE/BAY OF FUNDY AREA TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA EARLY
THIS MORNING. TO THE WEST, ~1026MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
DRIFT EAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, AND IS FORECAST BUILD ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. DID NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY
WITH WINDS KEEPING TEMPS UP ABOVE GUIDANCE. DO EXPECT WINDS TO DROP
OFF BRIEFLY JUST BEFORE DAWN...AND IN THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE,
READINGS WILL LIKELY DROP OFF QUICKLY JUST BEFORE SUNRISE.
THICKNESS TOOLS MESH WELL WITH THE GOING FORECAST, WITH EXPECTED
HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER UPR 30S OVER THE EASTERN SHORE. WL REMAIN A BIT
BREEZY TODAY, WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AVGG 15-20 MPH (GUSTS TO 25)
ALONG THE COAST, 5-10 MPH INLAND. THIS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE
30S THROUGH THE DAY FOR MOST DESPITE A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT/ERY THURSDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS SHOULD YIELD GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS AND A COLDER
NIGHT TNGT. EARLY MORNING LOWS THURSDAY MORNING 15 TO 20 INLAND
TO LOWER TO MID 20S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING, ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO RETURN AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. NOT MUCH MOISTURE FOR THE SYSTEM TO WORK WITH AS IT
CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THU
AFTN/EVENING, OWING TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THUS, HAVE
KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON THU...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHC TO LOW CHC (20-30%) CHANCE FOR SOME PASSING RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE RICHMOND METRO AREA. ANY SHRAS LATE THU
AFTN/EVENING WOULD BE BRIEF, WITH QPF ON THE ORDER OF A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT BEST. 00Z/28 DATA IS ALSO A BIT QUICKER TO DRY OUT
ANY PCPN OVER THE EASTERN SHORE, SO WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST
OVERNIGHT. FOR HIGHS, PRE-FRONTAL SW FLOW YIELDS A MODEST AND
SHORT LIVED WARM UP ON THU, WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
(WARMEST I-85/US-1 CORRIDOR). ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA LATE THU NGT/FRIDAY MORNING, USHERING IN A SHARPLY COLDER
AND DRIER AIRMASS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR BRISK
WINDS OUT OF THE NW THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT TO
YIELD WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO THE
LOW TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT (SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO ON THE LOWER
EASTERN SHORE).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NRN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS PREVAILING. TROUGH EXITS THE COAST FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY SAT. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE
AROUND -10C (-1 STD DEV). THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
NOW WITH PUSHING THE SFC HIGH OFFSHORE SUN AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
PROGGED TO LIFT FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS SUN...AND NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT. TRAILING
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT. DEEP H85 TROUGH
EXPECTED TO ADVECT MOISTURE NWD FROM THE ERN GULF INTO THE REGION
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING
WINDS ALOFT...WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
THE AREA LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS INTO
THE LOW-MID 40S (POSSIBLY WARMER) SUN...WITH THE COLDEST AIR
REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE
PREDOMINATELY RAIN...BUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE
ONSET AS WAA KICKS IN. HOWEVER...NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALL
RAIN LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH A POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER ACROSS THE
NRN ZONES LATE SAT NIGHT AS COLD AIR PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WLY
PUSH BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN DRYING CONDITIONS MON-
TUES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. BY
TUES...TEMPS FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
REMNANT BKN-OVC CLOUDS AROUND 10 KFT AGL WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SWD AND OUT OF THE AREA BY 28/0900-1000Z...BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR THEREAFTER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH OF A SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN
THE INCOMING HIGH AND THE COASTAL LOW OFF THE NRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST TO PRODUCE BREEZY NNW-N WINDS THROUGH TODAY. WINDS
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM SKIRTS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW) WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64 THURSDAY EVENING. A GOOD SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY WINDS TO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS REMAINS STRONG BTWN LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY/MIDWEST. THE
RESULT IS ONGOING SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS. NW GUSTS UP TO 25
KT OVER THE BAY AND 30 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OBSERVED THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD ALONG THE NE
COAST AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL CAA IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT TO GO ALONG WITH THE ALREADY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT. HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...INTO THE 20-25
KT RANGE IN THE BAY AND 25 TO 30 KT RANGE IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER...GALE CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WILL BE NORTH OF THE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED...RANGING FROM 6-9 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THRU THE
NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THRU THE DAY WEDS
TO 5-7 FT. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY ARRIVES WEDS NIGHT...WITH WINDS
FINALLY DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THRU
THE NIGHT...FALLING BELOW 5 FT LATE WEDS NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND
SLY FLOW BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE WATERS THURS BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS LATE THURS NIGHT. ANOTHER CAA NW SURGE IS
EXPECTED LATE THURS NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WATERS SAT AND SUN IN
ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE WATERS SUN
NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...SAM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280830
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
330 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE THURSDAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES STRONG COASTAL LOW (~989MB) LIFTING INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE/BAY OF FUNDY AREA TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA EARLY
THIS MORNING. TO THE WEST, ~1026MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
DRIFT EAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, AND IS FORECAST BUILD ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. DID NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY
WITH WINDS KEEPING TEMPS UP ABOVE GUIDANCE. DO EXPECT WINDS TO DROP
OFF BRIEFLY JUST BEFORE DAWN...AND IN THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE,
READINGS WILL LIKELY DROP OFF QUICKLY JUST BEFORE SUNRISE.
THICKNESS TOOLS MESH WELL WITH THE GOING FORECAST, WITH EXPECTED
HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER UPR 30S OVER THE EASTERN SHORE. WL REMAIN A BIT
BREEZY TODAY, WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AVGG 15-20 MPH (GUSTS TO 25)
ALONG THE COAST, 5-10 MPH INLAND. THIS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE
30S THROUGH THE DAY FOR MOST DESPITE A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT/ERY THURSDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS SHOULD YIELD GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS AND A COLDER
NIGHT TNGT. EARLY MORNING LOWS THURSDAY MORNING 15 TO 20 INLAND
TO LOWER TO MID 20S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING, ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO RETURN AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. NOT MUCH MOISTURE FOR THE SYSTEM TO WORK WITH AS IT
CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THU
AFTN/EVENING, OWING TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THUS, HAVE
KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON THU...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHC TO LOW CHC (20-30%) CHANCE FOR SOME PASSING RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE RICHMOND METRO AREA. ANY SHRAS LATE THU
AFTN/EVENING WOULD BE BRIEF, WITH QPF ON THE ORDER OF A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT BEST. 00Z/28 DATA IS ALSO A BIT QUICKER TO DRY OUT
ANY PCPN OVER THE EASTERN SHORE, SO WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST
OVERNIGHT. FOR HIGHS, PRE-FRONTAL SW FLOW YIELDS A MODEST AND
SHORT LIVED WARM UP ON THU, WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
(WARMEST I-85/US-1 CORRIDOR). ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA LATE THU NGT/FRIDAY MORNING, USHERING IN A SHARPLY COLDER
AND DRIER AIRMASS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR BRISK
WINDS OUT OF THE NW THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT TO
YIELD WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO THE
LOW TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT (SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO ON THE LOWER
EASTERN SHORE).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NRN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS PREVAILING. TROUGH EXITS THE COAST FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY SAT. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE
AROUND -10C (-1 STD DEV). THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
NOW WITH PUSHING THE SFC HIGH OFFSHORE SUN AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
PROGGED TO LIFT FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS SUN...AND NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT. TRAILING
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT. DEEP H85 TROUGH
EXPECTED TO ADVECT MOISTURE NWD FROM THE ERN GULF INTO THE REGION
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING
WINDS ALOFT...WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
THE AREA LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS INTO
THE LOW-MID 40S (POSSIBLY WARMER) SUN...WITH THE COLDEST AIR
REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE
PREDOMINATELY RAIN...BUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE
ONSET AS WAA KICKS IN. HOWEVER...NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALL
RAIN LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH A POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER ACROSS THE
NRN ZONES LATE SAT NIGHT AS COLD AIR PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WLY
PUSH BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN DRYING CONDITIONS MON-
TUES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. BY
TUES...TEMPS FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
REMNANT BKN-OVC CLOUDS AROUND 10 KFT AGL WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SWD AND OUT OF THE AREA BY 28/0900-1000Z...BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR THEREAFTER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH OF A SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN
THE INCOMING HIGH AND THE COASTAL LOW OFF THE NRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST TO PRODUCE BREEZY NNW-N WINDS THROUGH TODAY. WINDS
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM SKIRTS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW) WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64 THURSDAY EVENING. A GOOD SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY WINDS TO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS REMAINS STRONG BTWN LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY/MIDWEST. THE
RESULT IS ONGOING SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS. NW GUSTS UP TO 25
KT OVER THE BAY AND 30 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OBSERVED THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD ALONG THE NE
COAST AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL CAA IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT TO GO ALONG WITH THE ALREADY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT. HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...INTO THE 20-25
KT RANGE IN THE BAY AND 25 TO 30 KT RANGE IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER...GALE CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WILL BE NORTH OF THE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED...RANGING FROM 6-9 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THRU THE
NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THRU THE DAY WEDS
TO 5-7 FT. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY ARRIVES WEDS NIGHT...WITH WINDS
FINALLY DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THRU
THE NIGHT...FALLING BELOW 5 FT LATE WEDS NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND
SLY FLOW BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE WATERS THURS BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS LATE THURS NIGHT. ANOTHER CAA NW SURGE IS
EXPECTED LATE THURS NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WATERS SAT AND SUN IN
ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE WATERS SUN
NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...SAM









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280620 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
120 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY BUT COLD DAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WINDING DOWN AS DRIER AIR IS PLUNGING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND THE LAST SHORTWAVE...SWINGING
AROUND LARGE EASTERN 500 LOW...DRIFTS EASTWARD. HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS TO SHOW THIS TREND AS WELL AS CLOUD COVER.

STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AND SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE...BUT IT WILL STILL BE PLENTY COLD HERE. WOULD EXPECT TO
SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SOUTHWARD UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.

EVEN WITH SUNSHINE TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND WAA WILL BE ONGOING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK. TEMPS WILL START
TO SLOWLY RISE AS DAYBREAK APPROACHES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. NEXT SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY MORNING
REACHING WESTERN OHIO BY MIDDAY. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN THE FORECAST GETS REAL TRICKY.
WAA CONTINUES AHEAD OF BOUNDARY AS LOW LEVEL JET WILL PULL WARMER
AIR NORTHWARD. LOW AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESS QUICKLY RISE TO LEVELS
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS
CORRECT...THIS WARMING MAY ENVELOP THE WHOLE AREA. TEMPERATURE
WILL RISE THURSDAY...BUT WITH A VERY COLD GROUND AND LARGE SNOW
PACK THE SURFACE ITSELF WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND. THERE IS A HIGH
THREAT THURSDAY FOR A PERIOD OF ICE ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA. THE
REAL HEADACHE COMES FROM THE FACT THAT SENSORS MAY SHOW TEMPS
ABOVE 32...BUT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED GROUND CONDITIONS...RAIN
WILL FREEZE AS IT CONTACTS THE SURFACE. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
GFS AND NAM FOR PRECIP TYPE...BUT THE KEY WILL BE TO FIGURE OUT
THE SURFACE TEMPS...WHICH WILL BE NO EASY TASK.

COLD FRONT QUICKLY CLEARS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE REGION. LOW AND MID-LEVEL
THICKNESS QUICKLY RESPOND AND EXPECT AN ATMOSPHERE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ALL SNOW BY 06Z FRIDAY. BY THIS TIME...MOST...IF NOT ALL
OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...WITH STRONG CAA AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVEN WITH
LOWERING INVERSIONS AND A FROZEN LAKE ERIE. SNOW GROWTH ZONES RAPIDLY
DROP FRIDAY...SO UNTIL THE LOWER LAYERS DRY OUT...THE THREAT FOR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL FOCUS
HIGHEST POPS ON THE RIDGES AND FAR NORTH.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY TO OCCUR IN THE EARLY MORNING WITH A
STEADY DECLINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER AIR SLOWLY WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH. SNOW SHOWERS/MVFR LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY GONE BY
10Z OR SO. MGW/LBE MAY BE THE LAST TO GO SKC. VFR THEREAFTER WITH
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
AFTER 03Z THURSDAY. CL

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280620 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
120 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY BUT COLD DAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WINDING DOWN AS DRIER AIR IS PLUNGING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND THE LAST SHORTWAVE...SWINGING
AROUND LARGE EASTERN 500 LOW...DRIFTS EASTWARD. HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS TO SHOW THIS TREND AS WELL AS CLOUD COVER.

STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AND SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE...BUT IT WILL STILL BE PLENTY COLD HERE. WOULD EXPECT TO
SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SOUTHWARD UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.

EVEN WITH SUNSHINE TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND WAA WILL BE ONGOING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK. TEMPS WILL START
TO SLOWLY RISE AS DAYBREAK APPROACHES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. NEXT SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY MORNING
REACHING WESTERN OHIO BY MIDDAY. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN THE FORECAST GETS REAL TRICKY.
WAA CONTINUES AHEAD OF BOUNDARY AS LOW LEVEL JET WILL PULL WARMER
AIR NORTHWARD. LOW AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESS QUICKLY RISE TO LEVELS
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS
CORRECT...THIS WARMING MAY ENVELOP THE WHOLE AREA. TEMPERATURE
WILL RISE THURSDAY...BUT WITH A VERY COLD GROUND AND LARGE SNOW
PACK THE SURFACE ITSELF WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND. THERE IS A HIGH
THREAT THURSDAY FOR A PERIOD OF ICE ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA. THE
REAL HEADACHE COMES FROM THE FACT THAT SENSORS MAY SHOW TEMPS
ABOVE 32...BUT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED GROUND CONDITIONS...RAIN
WILL FREEZE AS IT CONTACTS THE SURFACE. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
GFS AND NAM FOR PRECIP TYPE...BUT THE KEY WILL BE TO FIGURE OUT
THE SURFACE TEMPS...WHICH WILL BE NO EASY TASK.

COLD FRONT QUICKLY CLEARS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE REGION. LOW AND MID-LEVEL
THICKNESS QUICKLY RESPOND AND EXPECT AN ATMOSPHERE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ALL SNOW BY 06Z FRIDAY. BY THIS TIME...MOST...IF NOT ALL
OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...WITH STRONG CAA AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVEN WITH
LOWERING INVERSIONS AND A FROZEN LAKE ERIE. SNOW GROWTH ZONES RAPIDLY
DROP FRIDAY...SO UNTIL THE LOWER LAYERS DRY OUT...THE THREAT FOR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL FOCUS
HIGHEST POPS ON THE RIDGES AND FAR NORTH.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY TO OCCUR IN THE EARLY MORNING WITH A
STEADY DECLINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER AIR SLOWLY WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH. SNOW SHOWERS/MVFR LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY GONE BY
10Z OR SO. MGW/LBE MAY BE THE LAST TO GO SKC. VFR THEREAFTER WITH
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
AFTER 03Z THURSDAY. CL

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280600
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
100 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS
EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~988 MB LO PRES JUST E OF CAPE COD
WITH ~1024 MB HI PRES CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN. THE LO WILL ADVANCE
NEWD TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME THEN CANADIAN MARITIMES OVERNIGHT AS
THE HI MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY. WITH THE MID ATLANTIC BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES...NW FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS. SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER INTERIOR
NE NC THRU EARLY WED AM. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BLO NORMAL
FOR LATE JAN...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LO TO MID 20S. WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS EVERYWHERE...WITH UPR SINGLE
DIGITS PSBL OVER THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDS WITH CONTINUED BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. FOR WED/WED NIGHT...STRONG SFC HI PRES BLDS E FM THE
OH VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED UPR-
LEVEL TROF PULLS OFFSHORE. EXPECT A MSTLY SUNNY-MSTLY CLEAR SKY
WITH SLOWLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS. HIGHS WED RANGE FM THE MID 30S
OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR 30S/LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. SIMILAR
LOWS WED NIGHT AS TNGT...LO TO MID 20S...BUT WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LO DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS.

SLY FLOW RETURNS THU AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE
REGION THU NIGHT. DESPITE DECENT FORCING...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
A BIT SO WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN 20-30% POPS ATTM WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OVER NRN AREAS. PTYPE IS RA THU AFTN/EVENG TRANSITIONING TO
A RA/SN MIX OVRNGT. ANY PCPN WILL BE LIGHT. HI PRES THEN SLOWLY
BLDS IN FM THE W FRI LEADING TO DRY CONDS...DECREASING
CLOUDS...AND HI TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NRN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS PREVAILING. TROUGH EXITS THE COAST FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY SAT. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE AROUND
-10C (-1 STD DEV). THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW WITH
PUSHING THE SFC HIGH OFFSHORE SUN AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO LIFT
FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS SUN...AND
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT. TRAILING COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS
THE REGION SUN NIGHT. DEEP H85 TROUGH EXPECTED TO ADVECT MOISTURE
NWD FROM THE ERN GULF INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT...WIDESPREAD
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA LATE SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS INTO THE LOW-MID 40S (POSSIBLY
WARMER) SUN...WITH THE COLDEST AIR REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE PREDOMINATELY RAIN...BUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW
MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET AS WAA KICKS IN. HOWEVER...NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALL RAIN LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH A
POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER ACROSS THE NRN ZONES LATE SAT NIGHT AS COLD AIR
PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WLY PUSH BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN
DRYING CONDITIONS MON-TUES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NW. BY TUES...TEMPS FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER
30S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
REMNANT BKN-OVC CLOUDS AROUND 10 KFT AGL WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SWD AND OUT OF THE AREA BY 28/0900-1000Z...BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR THEREAFTER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH OF A SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN
THE INCOMING HIGH AND THE COASTAL LOW OFF THE NRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST TO PRODUCE BREEZY NNW-N WINDS THROUGH TODAY. WINDS
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM SKIRTS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW) WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64 THURSDAY EVENING. A GOOD SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY WINDS TO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS REMAINS STRONG BTWN LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY/MIDWEST. THE
RESULT IS ONGOING SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS. NW GUSTS UP TO 25
KT OVER THE BAY AND 30 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OBSERVED THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD ALONG THE NE
COAST AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL CAA IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT TO GO ALONG WITH THE ALREADY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT. HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...INTO THE 20-25
KT RANGE IN THE BAY AND 25 TO 30 KT RANGE IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER...GALE CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WILL BE NORTH OF THE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED...RANGING FROM 6-9 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THRU THE
NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THRU THE DAY WEDS
TO 5-7 FT. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY ARRIVES WEDS NIGHT...WITH WINDS
FINALLY DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THRU
THE NIGHT...FALLING BELOW 5 FT LATE WEDS NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND
SLY FLOW BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE WATERS THURS BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS LATE THURS NIGHT. ANOTHER CAA NW SURGE IS
EXPECTED LATE THURS NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WATERS SAT AND SUN IN
ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE WATERS SUN
NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...JDM/MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...SAM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280600
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
100 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS
EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~988 MB LO PRES JUST E OF CAPE COD
WITH ~1024 MB HI PRES CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN. THE LO WILL ADVANCE
NEWD TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME THEN CANADIAN MARITIMES OVERNIGHT AS
THE HI MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY. WITH THE MID ATLANTIC BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES...NW FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS. SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER INTERIOR
NE NC THRU EARLY WED AM. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BLO NORMAL
FOR LATE JAN...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LO TO MID 20S. WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS EVERYWHERE...WITH UPR SINGLE
DIGITS PSBL OVER THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDS WITH CONTINUED BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. FOR WED/WED NIGHT...STRONG SFC HI PRES BLDS E FM THE
OH VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED UPR-
LEVEL TROF PULLS OFFSHORE. EXPECT A MSTLY SUNNY-MSTLY CLEAR SKY
WITH SLOWLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS. HIGHS WED RANGE FM THE MID 30S
OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR 30S/LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. SIMILAR
LOWS WED NIGHT AS TNGT...LO TO MID 20S...BUT WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LO DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS.

SLY FLOW RETURNS THU AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE
REGION THU NIGHT. DESPITE DECENT FORCING...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
A BIT SO WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN 20-30% POPS ATTM WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OVER NRN AREAS. PTYPE IS RA THU AFTN/EVENG TRANSITIONING TO
A RA/SN MIX OVRNGT. ANY PCPN WILL BE LIGHT. HI PRES THEN SLOWLY
BLDS IN FM THE W FRI LEADING TO DRY CONDS...DECREASING
CLOUDS...AND HI TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NRN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS PREVAILING. TROUGH EXITS THE COAST FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY SAT. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE AROUND
-10C (-1 STD DEV). THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW WITH
PUSHING THE SFC HIGH OFFSHORE SUN AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO LIFT
FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS SUN...AND
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT. TRAILING COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS
THE REGION SUN NIGHT. DEEP H85 TROUGH EXPECTED TO ADVECT MOISTURE
NWD FROM THE ERN GULF INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT...WIDESPREAD
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA LATE SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS INTO THE LOW-MID 40S (POSSIBLY
WARMER) SUN...WITH THE COLDEST AIR REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE PREDOMINATELY RAIN...BUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW
MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET AS WAA KICKS IN. HOWEVER...NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALL RAIN LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH A
POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER ACROSS THE NRN ZONES LATE SAT NIGHT AS COLD AIR
PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WLY PUSH BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN
DRYING CONDITIONS MON-TUES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NW. BY TUES...TEMPS FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER
30S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
REMNANT BKN-OVC CLOUDS AROUND 10 KFT AGL WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SWD AND OUT OF THE AREA BY 28/0900-1000Z...BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR THEREAFTER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH OF A SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN
THE INCOMING HIGH AND THE COASTAL LOW OFF THE NRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST TO PRODUCE BREEZY NNW-N WINDS THROUGH TODAY. WINDS
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM SKIRTS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW) WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64 THURSDAY EVENING. A GOOD SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY WINDS TO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS REMAINS STRONG BTWN LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY/MIDWEST. THE
RESULT IS ONGOING SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS. NW GUSTS UP TO 25
KT OVER THE BAY AND 30 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OBSERVED THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD ALONG THE NE
COAST AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL CAA IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT TO GO ALONG WITH THE ALREADY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT. HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...INTO THE 20-25
KT RANGE IN THE BAY AND 25 TO 30 KT RANGE IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER...GALE CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WILL BE NORTH OF THE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED...RANGING FROM 6-9 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THRU THE
NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THRU THE DAY WEDS
TO 5-7 FT. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY ARRIVES WEDS NIGHT...WITH WINDS
FINALLY DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THRU
THE NIGHT...FALLING BELOW 5 FT LATE WEDS NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND
SLY FLOW BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE WATERS THURS BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS LATE THURS NIGHT. ANOTHER CAA NW SURGE IS
EXPECTED LATE THURS NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WATERS SAT AND SUN IN
ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE WATERS SUN
NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...JDM/MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...SAM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280600
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
100 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS
EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~988 MB LO PRES JUST E OF CAPE COD
WITH ~1024 MB HI PRES CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN. THE LO WILL ADVANCE
NEWD TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME THEN CANADIAN MARITIMES OVERNIGHT AS
THE HI MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY. WITH THE MID ATLANTIC BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES...NW FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS. SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER INTERIOR
NE NC THRU EARLY WED AM. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BLO NORMAL
FOR LATE JAN...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LO TO MID 20S. WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS EVERYWHERE...WITH UPR SINGLE
DIGITS PSBL OVER THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDS WITH CONTINUED BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. FOR WED/WED NIGHT...STRONG SFC HI PRES BLDS E FM THE
OH VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED UPR-
LEVEL TROF PULLS OFFSHORE. EXPECT A MSTLY SUNNY-MSTLY CLEAR SKY
WITH SLOWLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS. HIGHS WED RANGE FM THE MID 30S
OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR 30S/LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. SIMILAR
LOWS WED NIGHT AS TNGT...LO TO MID 20S...BUT WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LO DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS.

SLY FLOW RETURNS THU AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE
REGION THU NIGHT. DESPITE DECENT FORCING...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
A BIT SO WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN 20-30% POPS ATTM WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OVER NRN AREAS. PTYPE IS RA THU AFTN/EVENG TRANSITIONING TO
A RA/SN MIX OVRNGT. ANY PCPN WILL BE LIGHT. HI PRES THEN SLOWLY
BLDS IN FM THE W FRI LEADING TO DRY CONDS...DECREASING
CLOUDS...AND HI TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NRN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS PREVAILING. TROUGH EXITS THE COAST FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY SAT. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE AROUND
-10C (-1 STD DEV). THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW WITH
PUSHING THE SFC HIGH OFFSHORE SUN AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO LIFT
FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS SUN...AND
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT. TRAILING COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS
THE REGION SUN NIGHT. DEEP H85 TROUGH EXPECTED TO ADVECT MOISTURE
NWD FROM THE ERN GULF INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT...WIDESPREAD
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA LATE SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS INTO THE LOW-MID 40S (POSSIBLY
WARMER) SUN...WITH THE COLDEST AIR REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE PREDOMINATELY RAIN...BUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW
MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET AS WAA KICKS IN. HOWEVER...NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALL RAIN LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH A
POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER ACROSS THE NRN ZONES LATE SAT NIGHT AS COLD AIR
PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WLY PUSH BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN
DRYING CONDITIONS MON-TUES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NW. BY TUES...TEMPS FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER
30S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
REMNANT BKN-OVC CLOUDS AROUND 10 KFT AGL WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SWD AND OUT OF THE AREA BY 28/0900-1000Z...BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR THEREAFTER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH OF A SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN
THE INCOMING HIGH AND THE COASTAL LOW OFF THE NRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST TO PRODUCE BREEZY NNW-N WINDS THROUGH TODAY. WINDS
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM SKIRTS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW) WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64 THURSDAY EVENING. A GOOD SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY WINDS TO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS REMAINS STRONG BTWN LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY/MIDWEST. THE
RESULT IS ONGOING SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS. NW GUSTS UP TO 25
KT OVER THE BAY AND 30 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OBSERVED THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD ALONG THE NE
COAST AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL CAA IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT TO GO ALONG WITH THE ALREADY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT. HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...INTO THE 20-25
KT RANGE IN THE BAY AND 25 TO 30 KT RANGE IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER...GALE CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WILL BE NORTH OF THE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED...RANGING FROM 6-9 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THRU THE
NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THRU THE DAY WEDS
TO 5-7 FT. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY ARRIVES WEDS NIGHT...WITH WINDS
FINALLY DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THRU
THE NIGHT...FALLING BELOW 5 FT LATE WEDS NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND
SLY FLOW BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE WATERS THURS BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS LATE THURS NIGHT. ANOTHER CAA NW SURGE IS
EXPECTED LATE THURS NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WATERS SAT AND SUN IN
ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE WATERS SUN
NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...JDM/MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...SAM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280600
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
100 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS
EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~988 MB LO PRES JUST E OF CAPE COD
WITH ~1024 MB HI PRES CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN. THE LO WILL ADVANCE
NEWD TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME THEN CANADIAN MARITIMES OVERNIGHT AS
THE HI MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY. WITH THE MID ATLANTIC BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES...NW FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS. SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER INTERIOR
NE NC THRU EARLY WED AM. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BLO NORMAL
FOR LATE JAN...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LO TO MID 20S. WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS EVERYWHERE...WITH UPR SINGLE
DIGITS PSBL OVER THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDS WITH CONTINUED BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. FOR WED/WED NIGHT...STRONG SFC HI PRES BLDS E FM THE
OH VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED UPR-
LEVEL TROF PULLS OFFSHORE. EXPECT A MSTLY SUNNY-MSTLY CLEAR SKY
WITH SLOWLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS. HIGHS WED RANGE FM THE MID 30S
OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR 30S/LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. SIMILAR
LOWS WED NIGHT AS TNGT...LO TO MID 20S...BUT WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LO DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS.

SLY FLOW RETURNS THU AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE
REGION THU NIGHT. DESPITE DECENT FORCING...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
A BIT SO WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN 20-30% POPS ATTM WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OVER NRN AREAS. PTYPE IS RA THU AFTN/EVENG TRANSITIONING TO
A RA/SN MIX OVRNGT. ANY PCPN WILL BE LIGHT. HI PRES THEN SLOWLY
BLDS IN FM THE W FRI LEADING TO DRY CONDS...DECREASING
CLOUDS...AND HI TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NRN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS PREVAILING. TROUGH EXITS THE COAST FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY SAT. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE AROUND
-10C (-1 STD DEV). THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW WITH
PUSHING THE SFC HIGH OFFSHORE SUN AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO LIFT
FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS SUN...AND
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT. TRAILING COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS
THE REGION SUN NIGHT. DEEP H85 TROUGH EXPECTED TO ADVECT MOISTURE
NWD FROM THE ERN GULF INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT...WIDESPREAD
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA LATE SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS INTO THE LOW-MID 40S (POSSIBLY
WARMER) SUN...WITH THE COLDEST AIR REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE PREDOMINATELY RAIN...BUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW
MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET AS WAA KICKS IN. HOWEVER...NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALL RAIN LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH A
POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER ACROSS THE NRN ZONES LATE SAT NIGHT AS COLD AIR
PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WLY PUSH BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN
DRYING CONDITIONS MON-TUES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NW. BY TUES...TEMPS FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER
30S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
REMNANT BKN-OVC CLOUDS AROUND 10 KFT AGL WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SWD AND OUT OF THE AREA BY 28/0900-1000Z...BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR THEREAFTER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH OF A SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN
THE INCOMING HIGH AND THE COASTAL LOW OFF THE NRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST TO PRODUCE BREEZY NNW-N WINDS THROUGH TODAY. WINDS
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM SKIRTS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW) WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64 THURSDAY EVENING. A GOOD SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY WINDS TO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS REMAINS STRONG BTWN LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY/MIDWEST. THE
RESULT IS ONGOING SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS. NW GUSTS UP TO 25
KT OVER THE BAY AND 30 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OBSERVED THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD ALONG THE NE
COAST AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL CAA IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT TO GO ALONG WITH THE ALREADY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT. HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...INTO THE 20-25
KT RANGE IN THE BAY AND 25 TO 30 KT RANGE IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER...GALE CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WILL BE NORTH OF THE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED...RANGING FROM 6-9 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THRU THE
NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THRU THE DAY WEDS
TO 5-7 FT. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY ARRIVES WEDS NIGHT...WITH WINDS
FINALLY DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THRU
THE NIGHT...FALLING BELOW 5 FT LATE WEDS NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND
SLY FLOW BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE WATERS THURS BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS LATE THURS NIGHT. ANOTHER CAA NW SURGE IS
EXPECTED LATE THURS NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WATERS SAT AND SUN IN
ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE WATERS SUN
NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...JDM/MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...SAM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280600
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
100 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS
EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~988 MB LO PRES JUST E OF CAPE COD
WITH ~1024 MB HI PRES CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN. THE LO WILL ADVANCE
NEWD TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME THEN CANADIAN MARITIMES OVERNIGHT AS
THE HI MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY. WITH THE MID ATLANTIC BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES...NW FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS. SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER INTERIOR
NE NC THRU EARLY WED AM. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BLO NORMAL
FOR LATE JAN...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LO TO MID 20S. WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS EVERYWHERE...WITH UPR SINGLE
DIGITS PSBL OVER THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDS WITH CONTINUED BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. FOR WED/WED NIGHT...STRONG SFC HI PRES BLDS E FM THE
OH VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED UPR-
LEVEL TROF PULLS OFFSHORE. EXPECT A MSTLY SUNNY-MSTLY CLEAR SKY
WITH SLOWLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS. HIGHS WED RANGE FM THE MID 30S
OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR 30S/LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. SIMILAR
LOWS WED NIGHT AS TNGT...LO TO MID 20S...BUT WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LO DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS.

SLY FLOW RETURNS THU AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE
REGION THU NIGHT. DESPITE DECENT FORCING...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
A BIT SO WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN 20-30% POPS ATTM WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OVER NRN AREAS. PTYPE IS RA THU AFTN/EVENG TRANSITIONING TO
A RA/SN MIX OVRNGT. ANY PCPN WILL BE LIGHT. HI PRES THEN SLOWLY
BLDS IN FM THE W FRI LEADING TO DRY CONDS...DECREASING
CLOUDS...AND HI TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NRN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS PREVAILING. TROUGH EXITS THE COAST FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY SAT. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE AROUND
-10C (-1 STD DEV). THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW WITH
PUSHING THE SFC HIGH OFFSHORE SUN AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO LIFT
FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS SUN...AND
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT. TRAILING COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS
THE REGION SUN NIGHT. DEEP H85 TROUGH EXPECTED TO ADVECT MOISTURE
NWD FROM THE ERN GULF INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT...WIDESPREAD
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA LATE SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS INTO THE LOW-MID 40S (POSSIBLY
WARMER) SUN...WITH THE COLDEST AIR REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE PREDOMINATELY RAIN...BUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW
MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET AS WAA KICKS IN. HOWEVER...NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALL RAIN LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH A
POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER ACROSS THE NRN ZONES LATE SAT NIGHT AS COLD AIR
PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WLY PUSH BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN
DRYING CONDITIONS MON-TUES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NW. BY TUES...TEMPS FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER
30S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
REMNANT BKN-OVC CLOUDS AROUND 10 KFT AGL WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SWD AND OUT OF THE AREA BY 28/0900-1000Z...BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR THEREAFTER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH OF A SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN
THE INCOMING HIGH AND THE COASTAL LOW OFF THE NRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST TO PRODUCE BREEZY NNW-N WINDS THROUGH TODAY. WINDS
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM SKIRTS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW) WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64 THURSDAY EVENING. A GOOD SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY WINDS TO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS REMAINS STRONG BTWN LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY/MIDWEST. THE
RESULT IS ONGOING SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS. NW GUSTS UP TO 25
KT OVER THE BAY AND 30 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OBSERVED THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD ALONG THE NE
COAST AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL CAA IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT TO GO ALONG WITH THE ALREADY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT. HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...INTO THE 20-25
KT RANGE IN THE BAY AND 25 TO 30 KT RANGE IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER...GALE CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WILL BE NORTH OF THE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED...RANGING FROM 6-9 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THRU THE
NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THRU THE DAY WEDS
TO 5-7 FT. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY ARRIVES WEDS NIGHT...WITH WINDS
FINALLY DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THRU
THE NIGHT...FALLING BELOW 5 FT LATE WEDS NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND
SLY FLOW BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE WATERS THURS BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS LATE THURS NIGHT. ANOTHER CAA NW SURGE IS
EXPECTED LATE THURS NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WATERS SAT AND SUN IN
ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE WATERS SUN
NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...JDM/MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...SAM









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280600
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
100 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS
EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~988 MB LO PRES JUST E OF CAPE COD
WITH ~1024 MB HI PRES CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN. THE LO WILL ADVANCE
NEWD TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME THEN CANADIAN MARITIMES OVERNIGHT AS
THE HI MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY. WITH THE MID ATLANTIC BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES...NW FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS. SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER INTERIOR
NE NC THRU EARLY WED AM. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BLO NORMAL
FOR LATE JAN...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LO TO MID 20S. WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS EVERYWHERE...WITH UPR SINGLE
DIGITS PSBL OVER THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDS WITH CONTINUED BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. FOR WED/WED NIGHT...STRONG SFC HI PRES BLDS E FM THE
OH VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED UPR-
LEVEL TROF PULLS OFFSHORE. EXPECT A MSTLY SUNNY-MSTLY CLEAR SKY
WITH SLOWLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS. HIGHS WED RANGE FM THE MID 30S
OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR 30S/LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. SIMILAR
LOWS WED NIGHT AS TNGT...LO TO MID 20S...BUT WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LO DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS.

SLY FLOW RETURNS THU AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE
REGION THU NIGHT. DESPITE DECENT FORCING...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
A BIT SO WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN 20-30% POPS ATTM WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OVER NRN AREAS. PTYPE IS RA THU AFTN/EVENG TRANSITIONING TO
A RA/SN MIX OVRNGT. ANY PCPN WILL BE LIGHT. HI PRES THEN SLOWLY
BLDS IN FM THE W FRI LEADING TO DRY CONDS...DECREASING
CLOUDS...AND HI TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NRN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS PREVAILING. TROUGH EXITS THE COAST FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY SAT. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE AROUND
-10C (-1 STD DEV). THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW WITH
PUSHING THE SFC HIGH OFFSHORE SUN AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO LIFT
FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS SUN...AND
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT. TRAILING COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS
THE REGION SUN NIGHT. DEEP H85 TROUGH EXPECTED TO ADVECT MOISTURE
NWD FROM THE ERN GULF INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT...WIDESPREAD
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA LATE SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS INTO THE LOW-MID 40S (POSSIBLY
WARMER) SUN...WITH THE COLDEST AIR REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE PREDOMINATELY RAIN...BUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW
MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET AS WAA KICKS IN. HOWEVER...NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALL RAIN LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH A
POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER ACROSS THE NRN ZONES LATE SAT NIGHT AS COLD AIR
PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WLY PUSH BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN
DRYING CONDITIONS MON-TUES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NW. BY TUES...TEMPS FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER
30S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
REMNANT BKN-OVC CLOUDS AROUND 10 KFT AGL WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SWD AND OUT OF THE AREA BY 28/0900-1000Z...BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR THEREAFTER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH OF A SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN
THE INCOMING HIGH AND THE COASTAL LOW OFF THE NRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST TO PRODUCE BREEZY NNW-N WINDS THROUGH TODAY. WINDS
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM SKIRTS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW) WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64 THURSDAY EVENING. A GOOD SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY WINDS TO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS REMAINS STRONG BTWN LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY/MIDWEST. THE
RESULT IS ONGOING SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS. NW GUSTS UP TO 25
KT OVER THE BAY AND 30 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OBSERVED THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD ALONG THE NE
COAST AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL CAA IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT TO GO ALONG WITH THE ALREADY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT. HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...INTO THE 20-25
KT RANGE IN THE BAY AND 25 TO 30 KT RANGE IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER...GALE CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WILL BE NORTH OF THE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED...RANGING FROM 6-9 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THRU THE
NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THRU THE DAY WEDS
TO 5-7 FT. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY ARRIVES WEDS NIGHT...WITH WINDS
FINALLY DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THRU
THE NIGHT...FALLING BELOW 5 FT LATE WEDS NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND
SLY FLOW BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE WATERS THURS BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS LATE THURS NIGHT. ANOTHER CAA NW SURGE IS
EXPECTED LATE THURS NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WATERS SAT AND SUN IN
ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE WATERS SUN
NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...JDM/MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...SAM








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280540
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1240 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY BUT COLD DAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WINDING DOWN AS DRIER AIR IS PLUNGING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND THE LAST SHORTWAVE...SWINGING
AROUND LARGE EASTERN 500 LOW...DRIFTS EASTWARD. HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS TO SHOW THIS TREND AS WELL AS CLOUD COVER.

STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AND SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE...BUT IT WILL STILL BE PLENTY COLD HERE. WOULD EXPECT TO
SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SOUTHWARD UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.

EVEN WITH SUNSHINE TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND WAA WILL BE ONGOING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK. TEMPS WILL START
TO SLOWLY RISE AS DAYBREAK APPROACHES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. NEXT SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY MORNING
REACHING WESTERN OHIO BY MIDDAY. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN THE FORECAST GETS REAL TRICKY.
WAA CONTINUES AHEAD OF BOUNDARY AS LOW LEVEL JET WILL PULL WARMER
AIR NORTHWARD. LOW AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESS QUICKLY RISE TO LEVELS
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS
CORRECT...THIS WARMING MAY ENVELOP THE WHOLE AREA. TEMPERATURE
WILL RISE THURSDAY...BUT WITH A VERY COLD GROUND AND LARGE SNOW
PACK THE SURFACE ITSELF WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND. THERE IS A HIGH
THREAT THURSDAY FOR A PERIOD OF ICE ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA. THE
REAL HEADACHE COMES FROM THE FACT THAT SENSORS MAY SHOW TEMPS
ABOVE 32...BUT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED GROUND CONDITIONS...RAIN
WILL FREEZE AS IT CONTACTS THE SURFACE. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
GFS AND NAM FOR PRECIP TYPE...BUT THE KEY WILL BE TO FIGURE OUT
THE SURFACE TEMPS...WHICH WILL BE NO EASY TASK.

COLD FRONT QUICKLY CLEARS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE REGION. LOW AND MID-LEVEL
THICKNESS QUICKLY RESPOND AND EXPECT AN ATMOSPHERE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ALL SNOW BY 06Z FRIDAY. BY THIS TIME...MOST...IF NOT ALL
OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...WITH STRONG CAA AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVEN WITH
LOWERING INVERSIONS AND A FROZEN LAKE ERIE. SNOW GROWTH ZONES RAPIDLY
DROP FRIDAY...SO UNTIL THE LOWER LAYERS DRY OUT...THE THREAT FOR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL FOCUS
HIGHEST POPS ON THE RIDGES AND FAR NORTH.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY TO OCCUR IN THE EARLY MORNING WITH A
STEADY DECLINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER AIR SLOWLY WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH. SNOW SHOWERS/MVFR LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY GONE BY
10Z OR SO. MGW/LBE MAY BE THE LAST TO GO SKC. VFR THEREAFTER WITH
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
AFTER 03Z THURSDAY. CL

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280540
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1240 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY BUT COLD DAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WINDING DOWN AS DRIER AIR IS PLUNGING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND THE LAST SHORTWAVE...SWINGING
AROUND LARGE EASTERN 500 LOW...DRIFTS EASTWARD. HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS TO SHOW THIS TREND AS WELL AS CLOUD COVER.

STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AND SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE...BUT IT WILL STILL BE PLENTY COLD HERE. WOULD EXPECT TO
SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SOUTHWARD UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.

EVEN WITH SUNSHINE TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND WAA WILL BE ONGOING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK. TEMPS WILL START
TO SLOWLY RISE AS DAYBREAK APPROACHES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. NEXT SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY MORNING
REACHING WESTERN OHIO BY MIDDAY. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN THE FORECAST GETS REAL TRICKY.
WAA CONTINUES AHEAD OF BOUNDARY AS LOW LEVEL JET WILL PULL WARMER
AIR NORTHWARD. LOW AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESS QUICKLY RISE TO LEVELS
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS
CORRECT...THIS WARMING MAY ENVELOP THE WHOLE AREA. TEMPERATURE
WILL RISE THURSDAY...BUT WITH A VERY COLD GROUND AND LARGE SNOW
PACK THE SURFACE ITSELF WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND. THERE IS A HIGH
THREAT THURSDAY FOR A PERIOD OF ICE ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA. THE
REAL HEADACHE COMES FROM THE FACT THAT SENSORS MAY SHOW TEMPS
ABOVE 32...BUT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED GROUND CONDITIONS...RAIN
WILL FREEZE AS IT CONTACTS THE SURFACE. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
GFS AND NAM FOR PRECIP TYPE...BUT THE KEY WILL BE TO FIGURE OUT
THE SURFACE TEMPS...WHICH WILL BE NO EASY TASK.

COLD FRONT QUICKLY CLEARS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE REGION. LOW AND MID-LEVEL
THICKNESS QUICKLY RESPOND AND EXPECT AN ATMOSPHERE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ALL SNOW BY 06Z FRIDAY. BY THIS TIME...MOST...IF NOT ALL
OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...WITH STRONG CAA AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVEN WITH
LOWERING INVERSIONS AND A FROZEN LAKE ERIE. SNOW GROWTH ZONES RAPIDLY
DROP FRIDAY...SO UNTIL THE LOWER LAYERS DRY OUT...THE THREAT FOR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL FOCUS
HIGHEST POPS ON THE RIDGES AND FAR NORTH.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY TO OCCUR IN THE EARLY MORNING WITH A
STEADY DECLINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER AIR SLOWLY WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH. SNOW SHOWERS/MVFR LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY GONE BY
10Z OR SO. MGW/LBE MAY BE THE LAST TO GO SKC. VFR THEREAFTER WITH
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
AFTER 03Z THURSDAY. CL

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280345
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1045 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND DECREASE CLOUDS TONIGHT. A COLD
WEDNESDAY WILL FOLLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
OTHER THAN POWER PLANT PLUME SNOW SHOWERS GENERALLY OVER THE NORTH
HILLS AND ALONG THE TURNPIKE INTO BEAVER COUNTY...DRIER AIR IS
QUICKLY WINNING THE BATTLE IN THE CWA. DEWPOINTS ARE POISED TO
CONTINUE TO CRATER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN
THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER RH VALUES SUCH THAT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO FURTHER WEAKEN IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE. AS
SUCH...GENERALLY FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS EVEN IN
UPSLOPE THE REST OF THE NIGHT...WHILE FIRST BREAKS...THEN A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLEAR SKY SHOULD BE PRESENT BY MORNING. LOWS WILL CRATER
ACROSS THE CWA AS A RESULT OVERNIGHT.

WITH THE ENDING OF MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW...THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN PULLED DOWN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY HIGHS WERE LIMITED TO ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS
WITH SFC HIGH PRES SLIDING ACRS THE UPR OH REGION. SHRTWV RIDGING
WL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT STRENGTHENING
WARM ADVCTN IN ADVN OF TROUGH DIGGING RAPIDLY TWD THE WRN LAKES WL
IMPROVE THE THURSDAY MRNG LOWS.

THE NAM...GFS...ECMWF FORECASTED CENTER TRACK OF THAT SYSTEM RMNS
N OF THE REGION...HENCE CONTD WARM ADVCTN ON THE ERN FLANK IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THE
SCENARIO WL FAVOR A WINTRY MIX COMPLICATED BY COLD SURFACES
LEFTOVER OVR FM THE PREVIOUS TWO NGTS.

ANY PCPN THAT DOES TURN TO RAIN WL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
FREEZE ON CONTACT. IN ADDITION...THE DRY LAYER WHICH IS PROGGED TO
LIMIT PCPN ONSET IN THE MRNG MAY OFFSET A WEAKER WARM ADVCTN
REGIME VIA WET BULBING. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT FORECAST WL FEATURE A
WINTRY MIX WITH A CHANGE TO SNOW WITH PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEMS COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY EVENING. A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS ALSO
INCLUDED FOR THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL. QPF WAS COMPLETED USING
WPC GUIDANCE TRIMMED FOR LOCAL POP TRENDS WITH SNOW TOTALS
ADJUSTED FOR SFC TEMP EXPECTATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COLD TEMPS WL AGAIN VISIT THE REGION.
DEPTH OF COLD AT MOMENT LKS SUFFICIENT TO SPPRT SNOW SHWRS...SO
LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED OVR THE RIDGES PAST DAYBREAK DESPITE
DRY ADVCTN AND LACK OF ANY REINFORCING LAKE ERIE MSTR DUE TO ICE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO WANE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS
DRIER AIR ARRIVES TO CHOKE OFF THE MOISTURE. EXPECTING MVFR
CIGS/VSBY TO CONTINUE IN THE LIGHT SNOW BEFORE FINALLY TAPERING
OFF LAST NEAR KMGW/KLBE AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
SCATTER OUT AS THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. ALREADY
BEGINNING TO SEE THIS IN DUJ WHERE THE LLVL MOISTURE EVACUATED
LEAVING A MID-DECK LINGERING. CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR MOST
TERMINALS BY ABOUT DAYBREAK WEDS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME SCT LOW
CLOUDS COULD REMAIN NEAR KMGW. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDS AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280345
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1045 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND DECREASE CLOUDS TONIGHT. A COLD
WEDNESDAY WILL FOLLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
OTHER THAN POWER PLANT PLUME SNOW SHOWERS GENERALLY OVER THE NORTH
HILLS AND ALONG THE TURNPIKE INTO BEAVER COUNTY...DRIER AIR IS
QUICKLY WINNING THE BATTLE IN THE CWA. DEWPOINTS ARE POISED TO
CONTINUE TO CRATER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN
THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER RH VALUES SUCH THAT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO FURTHER WEAKEN IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE. AS
SUCH...GENERALLY FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS EVEN IN
UPSLOPE THE REST OF THE NIGHT...WHILE FIRST BREAKS...THEN A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLEAR SKY SHOULD BE PRESENT BY MORNING. LOWS WILL CRATER
ACROSS THE CWA AS A RESULT OVERNIGHT.

WITH THE ENDING OF MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW...THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN PULLED DOWN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY HIGHS WERE LIMITED TO ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS
WITH SFC HIGH PRES SLIDING ACRS THE UPR OH REGION. SHRTWV RIDGING
WL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT STRENGTHENING
WARM ADVCTN IN ADVN OF TROUGH DIGGING RAPIDLY TWD THE WRN LAKES WL
IMPROVE THE THURSDAY MRNG LOWS.

THE NAM...GFS...ECMWF FORECASTED CENTER TRACK OF THAT SYSTEM RMNS
N OF THE REGION...HENCE CONTD WARM ADVCTN ON THE ERN FLANK IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THE
SCENARIO WL FAVOR A WINTRY MIX COMPLICATED BY COLD SURFACES
LEFTOVER OVR FM THE PREVIOUS TWO NGTS.

ANY PCPN THAT DOES TURN TO RAIN WL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
FREEZE ON CONTACT. IN ADDITION...THE DRY LAYER WHICH IS PROGGED TO
LIMIT PCPN ONSET IN THE MRNG MAY OFFSET A WEAKER WARM ADVCTN
REGIME VIA WET BULBING. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT FORECAST WL FEATURE A
WINTRY MIX WITH A CHANGE TO SNOW WITH PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEMS COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY EVENING. A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS ALSO
INCLUDED FOR THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL. QPF WAS COMPLETED USING
WPC GUIDANCE TRIMMED FOR LOCAL POP TRENDS WITH SNOW TOTALS
ADJUSTED FOR SFC TEMP EXPECTATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COLD TEMPS WL AGAIN VISIT THE REGION.
DEPTH OF COLD AT MOMENT LKS SUFFICIENT TO SPPRT SNOW SHWRS...SO
LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED OVR THE RIDGES PAST DAYBREAK DESPITE
DRY ADVCTN AND LACK OF ANY REINFORCING LAKE ERIE MSTR DUE TO ICE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO WANE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS
DRIER AIR ARRIVES TO CHOKE OFF THE MOISTURE. EXPECTING MVFR
CIGS/VSBY TO CONTINUE IN THE LIGHT SNOW BEFORE FINALLY TAPERING
OFF LAST NEAR KMGW/KLBE AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
SCATTER OUT AS THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. ALREADY
BEGINNING TO SEE THIS IN DUJ WHERE THE LLVL MOISTURE EVACUATED
LEAVING A MID-DECK LINGERING. CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR MOST
TERMINALS BY ABOUT DAYBREAK WEDS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME SCT LOW
CLOUDS COULD REMAIN NEAR KMGW. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDS AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280345
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1045 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND DECREASE CLOUDS TONIGHT. A COLD
WEDNESDAY WILL FOLLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
OTHER THAN POWER PLANT PLUME SNOW SHOWERS GENERALLY OVER THE NORTH
HILLS AND ALONG THE TURNPIKE INTO BEAVER COUNTY...DRIER AIR IS
QUICKLY WINNING THE BATTLE IN THE CWA. DEWPOINTS ARE POISED TO
CONTINUE TO CRATER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN
THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER RH VALUES SUCH THAT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO FURTHER WEAKEN IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE. AS
SUCH...GENERALLY FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS EVEN IN
UPSLOPE THE REST OF THE NIGHT...WHILE FIRST BREAKS...THEN A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLEAR SKY SHOULD BE PRESENT BY MORNING. LOWS WILL CRATER
ACROSS THE CWA AS A RESULT OVERNIGHT.

WITH THE ENDING OF MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW...THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN PULLED DOWN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY HIGHS WERE LIMITED TO ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS
WITH SFC HIGH PRES SLIDING ACRS THE UPR OH REGION. SHRTWV RIDGING
WL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT STRENGTHENING
WARM ADVCTN IN ADVN OF TROUGH DIGGING RAPIDLY TWD THE WRN LAKES WL
IMPROVE THE THURSDAY MRNG LOWS.

THE NAM...GFS...ECMWF FORECASTED CENTER TRACK OF THAT SYSTEM RMNS
N OF THE REGION...HENCE CONTD WARM ADVCTN ON THE ERN FLANK IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THE
SCENARIO WL FAVOR A WINTRY MIX COMPLICATED BY COLD SURFACES
LEFTOVER OVR FM THE PREVIOUS TWO NGTS.

ANY PCPN THAT DOES TURN TO RAIN WL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
FREEZE ON CONTACT. IN ADDITION...THE DRY LAYER WHICH IS PROGGED TO
LIMIT PCPN ONSET IN THE MRNG MAY OFFSET A WEAKER WARM ADVCTN
REGIME VIA WET BULBING. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT FORECAST WL FEATURE A
WINTRY MIX WITH A CHANGE TO SNOW WITH PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEMS COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY EVENING. A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS ALSO
INCLUDED FOR THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL. QPF WAS COMPLETED USING
WPC GUIDANCE TRIMMED FOR LOCAL POP TRENDS WITH SNOW TOTALS
ADJUSTED FOR SFC TEMP EXPECTATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COLD TEMPS WL AGAIN VISIT THE REGION.
DEPTH OF COLD AT MOMENT LKS SUFFICIENT TO SPPRT SNOW SHWRS...SO
LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED OVR THE RIDGES PAST DAYBREAK DESPITE
DRY ADVCTN AND LACK OF ANY REINFORCING LAKE ERIE MSTR DUE TO ICE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO WANE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS
DRIER AIR ARRIVES TO CHOKE OFF THE MOISTURE. EXPECTING MVFR
CIGS/VSBY TO CONTINUE IN THE LIGHT SNOW BEFORE FINALLY TAPERING
OFF LAST NEAR KMGW/KLBE AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
SCATTER OUT AS THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. ALREADY
BEGINNING TO SEE THIS IN DUJ WHERE THE LLVL MOISTURE EVACUATED
LEAVING A MID-DECK LINGERING. CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR MOST
TERMINALS BY ABOUT DAYBREAK WEDS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME SCT LOW
CLOUDS COULD REMAIN NEAR KMGW. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDS AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280314
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1014 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS
EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~988 MB LO PRES JUST E OF CAPE COD
WITH ~1024 MB HI PRES CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN. THE LO WILL ADVANCE
NEWRD TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME THEN CANADIAN MARITIMES OVERNIGHT AS
THE HI MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY. WITH THE MID ATLANTIC BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES...NW FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS. SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER INTERIOR
NE NC THRU EARLY WED AM. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BLO NORMAL
FOR LATE JAN...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LO TO MID 20S. WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS EVERYWHERE...WITH UPR SINGLE
DIGITS PSBL OVER THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDS WITH CONTINUED BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. FOR WED/WED NIGHT...STRONG SFC HI PRES BLDS E FM THE
OH VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED UPR-
LEVEL TROF PULLS OFFSHORE. EXPECT A MSTLY SUNNY-MSTLY CLEAR SKY
WITH SLOWLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS. HIGHS WED RANGE FM THE MID 30S
OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR 30S/LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. SIMILAR
LOWS WED NIGHT AS TNGT...LO TO MID 20S...BUT WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LO DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS.

SLY FLOW RETURNS THU AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE
REGION THU NIGHT. DESPITE DECENT FORCING...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
A BIT SO WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN 20-30% POPS ATTM WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OVER NRN AREAS. PTYPE IS RA THU AFTN/EVENG TRANSITIONING TO
A RA/SN MIX OVRNGT. ANY PCPN WILL BE LIGHT. HI PRES THEN SLOWLY
BLDS IN FM THE W FRI LEADING TO DRY CONDS...DECREASING
CLOUDS...AND HI TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NRN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS PREVAILING. TROUGH EXITS THE COAST FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY SAT. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE AROUND
-10C (-1 STD DEV). THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW WITH
PUSHING THE SFC HIGH OFFSHORE SUN AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO LIFT
FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS SUN...AND
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT. TRAILING COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS
THE REGION SUN NIGHT. DEEP H85 TROUGH EXPECTED TO ADVECT MOISTURE
NWD FROM THE ERN GULF INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT...WIDESPREAD
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA LATE SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS INTO THE LOW-MID 40S (POSSIBLY
WARMER) SUN...WITH THE COLDEST AIR REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE PREDOMINATELY RAIN...BUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW
MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET AS WAA KICKS IN. HOWEVER...NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALL RAIN LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH A
POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER ACROSS THE NRN ZONES LATE SAT NIGHT AS COLD AIR
PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WLY PUSH BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN
DRYING CONDITIONS MON-TUES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NW. BY TUES...TEMPS FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER
30S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND CENTERS OVER VA. NW WINDS GUSTING TO ~15KT
WILL PREVAIL WED DUE TO THE CONTINUED TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.

A WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU
NIGHT/EARLY FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS REMAINS STRONG BTWN LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY/MIDWEST. THE
RESULT IS ONGOING SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS. NW GUSTS UP TO 25
KT OVER THE BAY AND 30 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OBSERVED THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD ALONG THE NE
COAST AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL CAA IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT TO GO ALONG WITH THE ALREADY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT. HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...INTO THE 20-25
KT RANGE IN THE BAY AND 25 TO 30 KT RANGE IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER...GALE CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WILL BE NORTH OF THE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED...RANGING FROM 6-9 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THRU THE
NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THRU THE DAY WEDS
TO 5-7 FT. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY ARRIVES WEDS NIGHT...WITH WINDS
FINALLY DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THRU
THE NIGHT...FALLING BELOW 5 FT LATE WEDS NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND
SLY FLOW BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE WATERS THURS BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS LATE THURS NIGHT. ANOTHER CAA NW SURGE IS
EXPECTED LATE THURS NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WATERS SAT AND SUN IN
ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE WATERS SUN
NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...JDM/MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...SAM






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280314
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1014 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS
EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~988 MB LO PRES JUST E OF CAPE COD
WITH ~1024 MB HI PRES CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN. THE LO WILL ADVANCE
NEWRD TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME THEN CANADIAN MARITIMES OVERNIGHT AS
THE HI MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY. WITH THE MID ATLANTIC BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES...NW FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS. SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER INTERIOR
NE NC THRU EARLY WED AM. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BLO NORMAL
FOR LATE JAN...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LO TO MID 20S. WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS EVERYWHERE...WITH UPR SINGLE
DIGITS PSBL OVER THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDS WITH CONTINUED BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. FOR WED/WED NIGHT...STRONG SFC HI PRES BLDS E FM THE
OH VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED UPR-
LEVEL TROF PULLS OFFSHORE. EXPECT A MSTLY SUNNY-MSTLY CLEAR SKY
WITH SLOWLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS. HIGHS WED RANGE FM THE MID 30S
OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR 30S/LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. SIMILAR
LOWS WED NIGHT AS TNGT...LO TO MID 20S...BUT WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LO DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS.

SLY FLOW RETURNS THU AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE
REGION THU NIGHT. DESPITE DECENT FORCING...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
A BIT SO WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN 20-30% POPS ATTM WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OVER NRN AREAS. PTYPE IS RA THU AFTN/EVENG TRANSITIONING TO
A RA/SN MIX OVRNGT. ANY PCPN WILL BE LIGHT. HI PRES THEN SLOWLY
BLDS IN FM THE W FRI LEADING TO DRY CONDS...DECREASING
CLOUDS...AND HI TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NRN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS PREVAILING. TROUGH EXITS THE COAST FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY SAT. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE AROUND
-10C (-1 STD DEV). THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW WITH
PUSHING THE SFC HIGH OFFSHORE SUN AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO LIFT
FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS SUN...AND
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT. TRAILING COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS
THE REGION SUN NIGHT. DEEP H85 TROUGH EXPECTED TO ADVECT MOISTURE
NWD FROM THE ERN GULF INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT...WIDESPREAD
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA LATE SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS INTO THE LOW-MID 40S (POSSIBLY
WARMER) SUN...WITH THE COLDEST AIR REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE PREDOMINATELY RAIN...BUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW
MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET AS WAA KICKS IN. HOWEVER...NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALL RAIN LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH A
POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER ACROSS THE NRN ZONES LATE SAT NIGHT AS COLD AIR
PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WLY PUSH BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN
DRYING CONDITIONS MON-TUES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NW. BY TUES...TEMPS FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER
30S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND CENTERS OVER VA. NW WINDS GUSTING TO ~15KT
WILL PREVAIL WED DUE TO THE CONTINUED TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.

A WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU
NIGHT/EARLY FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS REMAINS STRONG BTWN LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY/MIDWEST. THE
RESULT IS ONGOING SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS. NW GUSTS UP TO 25
KT OVER THE BAY AND 30 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OBSERVED THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD ALONG THE NE
COAST AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL CAA IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT TO GO ALONG WITH THE ALREADY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT. HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...INTO THE 20-25
KT RANGE IN THE BAY AND 25 TO 30 KT RANGE IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER...GALE CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WILL BE NORTH OF THE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED...RANGING FROM 6-9 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THRU THE
NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THRU THE DAY WEDS
TO 5-7 FT. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY ARRIVES WEDS NIGHT...WITH WINDS
FINALLY DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THRU
THE NIGHT...FALLING BELOW 5 FT LATE WEDS NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND
SLY FLOW BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE WATERS THURS BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS LATE THURS NIGHT. ANOTHER CAA NW SURGE IS
EXPECTED LATE THURS NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WATERS SAT AND SUN IN
ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE WATERS SUN
NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...JDM/MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...SAM







000
FXUS61 KPHI 280231
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
931 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM EAST OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT WILL REACH THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND SETTLE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
ON THURSDAY AND REFORM EAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD, BREEZY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MOSTLY
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE STORM
PULLS FARTHER AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15-20
MPH WILL CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AROUND 25-30 MPH AT TIMES. THE FRESH
SNOW COVER UP NORTH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS. LOWS IN THE MID-TEENS TO AROUND 20 ARE EXPECTED
FURTHER SOUTH WERE THE SNOW COVER ISN/T AS DEEP OR WIDESPREAD. A
BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES,
UNDERCUT BY A DEGREE OR TWO UP NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR SNOW COVER.

THE COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE
WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
FOR MOST AREAS, AND CLOSE TO -10 TO -15 FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF CARBON/MONROE, PA AND SUSSEX, NJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR MORNING
CLOUDINESS IN NORTHERN NJ (LINGERING EFFECTS FROM THE DEPARTING
LOW). NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICKUP ONCE AGAIN AS DAYTIME MIXING TAKES
PLACE...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS THE SUN BEGINS TO
SET AND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO DECREASE. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO MAX OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 20S FAR NORTH, AND IN THE LOW
30S SOUTH. AGAIN...A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH A SLIGHT CUT IN THE LOCATIONS OF DEEPER SNOWPACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL PATTERN AT 00Z THU IS COMPRISED OF A DEEP TROUGH AT
70W WITH A NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST
AND A SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW INVOF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...S/WV RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE MID
ATL ON THU...THEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM S/WV ENERGY IS
PROGGED TO PHASE INVOF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND BECOME NEG
TILTED AS IT REACHES 70W AROUND 00Z SAT. THIS LEADS TO LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THRU THE GREAT LAKES ON THU WITH REDEVELOPMENT
CURRENTLY MODELED INVOF GEORGES BANK ON FRI. BY SAT...NORTHERN
STREAM S/WV ENERGY ENTERING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO
INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM S/WV ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF A CLOSED
LOW INVOF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS LEADS TO A COMPLEX AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE...WHICH IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO MOVE THRU THE
APPALACHIANS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THU NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRI AND THEN AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH PTYPE ISSUES LIKELY
WITH BOTH SYSTEMS...AS TEMPERATURES ROLLER COASTER FROM NEAR NORMAL
TO WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT AND THU...
GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES CRESTS OVER THE
REGION. EXPECTING IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING THU AM AS
ATMOS DECOUPLES WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND FRESH SNOW
COVER. EXPECTING MIN TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL REGION-
WIDE. ON THU LARGE SCALE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST AND MODEL X-SECS
INDICATE MID LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTN. THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING
PRECIP IN PRIOR TO 00Z ALONG AND WEST OF THE DE RIVER...AND THIS
TIMING IS REFLECTED IN THE FCSR. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE
5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THU NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THRU THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST...
AND THUS RESULTANT QPF BULLSEYE. ATTM...MODEL QPF IS GENERALLY A
TRACE OVER THE DELMARVA TO 0.2 INCHES OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST. THE
GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS IN MODEL THERMAL PROFILES AND THUS PTYPE.
THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A COLD AIR DAMMING SITUATION WITH HIGH
PRES OFFSHORE AND THE ABSENCE OF AN INVERSION. NEVERTHELESS...LOW
PRES WELL NORTHWEST WILL LEAD TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INSUFFICIENT
FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A RAIN/SNOW EVENT
WITH CURRENT PROFILES CONFINING RAIN TO SOUTHEAST NJ...DE...AND MD
WHERE MODEL QPF IS LIGHTEST. EXPECTING SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS RANGING
FROM 5:1 TO 10:1 WHICH WOULD GIVE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 INCH INVOF
I-95 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHWEST...BUT THIS IS PRELIMINARY...
STAY TUNED. PRECIP ENDS EARLY FRI WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
AS LOW PRESSURE REDEVELOPS EAST OF NEW ENG...AS TEMPS FALL THRU
THE DAY AFTER MORNING MAXS. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
SQUALLS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE POCONOS...WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE FRI AFTN. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING TO 850 HPA
WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS. THE COMBINATION
OF BLUSTERY WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL LEAD TO LOW WIND CHILLS...THEREFORE...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

SAT AND SUN...
MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION ON SAT GRADUALLY GIVES WAY
TO BRIEF RIDGING ON SUN. ON SAT THE COLUMN WILL DRY OUT...ASIDE
FOR POSSIBILITY OF STRATOCUMULUS BENEATH A MODELED SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...WITH ONE LAST BRISK DAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW. MID LEVEL FLOW ON SUNDAY BECOMES SOUTHWEST...AND
THE COLUMN WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN IN ADVANCE OF STORM SYSTEM TO
THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...
COMPLICATED FORECAST AS LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE APPALACHIANS
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. STRONG MID-LEVEL VORT MAX APPROACHES
THE COAST WITH DUAL JET SETUP FAVORING REDEVELOPMENT INVOF MID ATL
OR NEW ENGLAND. ATTM...THERMAL PROFILES GENERALLY FAVOR SNOW WITH
RAIN MIXING IN CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT THIS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
REDEVELOPMENT COULD LEAD TO COLDER AIR BEING DRAWN IN...WHICH
WOULD BRING SNOW FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE COAST. ANY WINTER WX
WOULD BE EXACERBATED BY COLD ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...MAKING
SURFACES MORE PRONE TO ICING.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FOR ALL TAF SITES. THERE MAY
BE SOME LINGERING SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS AROUND, BUT WE EXPECT
MOSTLY MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10-15 KNOTS, WITH IN AND OUT GUSTS AROUND
20-25 KNOTS INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. FREQUENT GUSTS
SHOULD DROP OFF DURING THE NIGHT AS MIXING WEAKENS, BUT THERE
COULD STILL BE OCCASIONAL GUSTS.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A VFR DAY WITH FREQUENT NORTHWEST GUSTS AGAIN
AROUND 20-25 KNOTS. GUSTS WILL AGAIN DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY VFR FOR MUCH OF THU. LIGHT
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THU NIGHT
BUT MAY REACH ABE/RDG BY LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE WITH THE
SNOW. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON...VFR WITH NW WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 KT.

FRI NIGHT...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

SATURDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY...LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE DAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE
WITH THE SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WIND GUSTS HAVE TAPERED OFF IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DEPARTING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH SCA GUSTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TILL
AROUND 18Z WEDNESDAY IN ALL MARINE ZONES, WITH SOME SCATTERED SCA
GUSTS THROUGH 23Z. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON TO AROUND FIVE FEET. SCA REMAINS THROUGH 23Z WEDNESDAY
ON THE OCEAN, AND 18Z ON THE BAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES
ARE ANTICIPATED. SOME FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...NEAR GALE-FORCE NW GUSTS BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE LEFTOVER NW GALE FORCE GUSTS. FREEZING
SPRAY LIKELY.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY EARLY.

SUNDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...MIKETTA
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/GAINES/ROBERTSON
MARINE...FRANCK/GAINES






000
FXUS61 KPHI 280231
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
931 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM EAST OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT WILL REACH THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND SETTLE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
ON THURSDAY AND REFORM EAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD, BREEZY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MOSTLY
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE STORM
PULLS FARTHER AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15-20
MPH WILL CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AROUND 25-30 MPH AT TIMES. THE FRESH
SNOW COVER UP NORTH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS. LOWS IN THE MID-TEENS TO AROUND 20 ARE EXPECTED
FURTHER SOUTH WERE THE SNOW COVER ISN/T AS DEEP OR WIDESPREAD. A
BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES,
UNDERCUT BY A DEGREE OR TWO UP NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR SNOW COVER.

THE COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE
WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
FOR MOST AREAS, AND CLOSE TO -10 TO -15 FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF CARBON/MONROE, PA AND SUSSEX, NJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR MORNING
CLOUDINESS IN NORTHERN NJ (LINGERING EFFECTS FROM THE DEPARTING
LOW). NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICKUP ONCE AGAIN AS DAYTIME MIXING TAKES
PLACE...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS THE SUN BEGINS TO
SET AND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO DECREASE. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO MAX OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 20S FAR NORTH, AND IN THE LOW
30S SOUTH. AGAIN...A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH A SLIGHT CUT IN THE LOCATIONS OF DEEPER SNOWPACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL PATTERN AT 00Z THU IS COMPRISED OF A DEEP TROUGH AT
70W WITH A NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST
AND A SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW INVOF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...S/WV RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE MID
ATL ON THU...THEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM S/WV ENERGY IS
PROGGED TO PHASE INVOF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND BECOME NEG
TILTED AS IT REACHES 70W AROUND 00Z SAT. THIS LEADS TO LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THRU THE GREAT LAKES ON THU WITH REDEVELOPMENT
CURRENTLY MODELED INVOF GEORGES BANK ON FRI. BY SAT...NORTHERN
STREAM S/WV ENERGY ENTERING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO
INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM S/WV ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF A CLOSED
LOW INVOF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS LEADS TO A COMPLEX AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE...WHICH IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO MOVE THRU THE
APPALACHIANS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THU NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRI AND THEN AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH PTYPE ISSUES LIKELY
WITH BOTH SYSTEMS...AS TEMPERATURES ROLLER COASTER FROM NEAR NORMAL
TO WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT AND THU...
GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES CRESTS OVER THE
REGION. EXPECTING IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING THU AM AS
ATMOS DECOUPLES WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND FRESH SNOW
COVER. EXPECTING MIN TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL REGION-
WIDE. ON THU LARGE SCALE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST AND MODEL X-SECS
INDICATE MID LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTN. THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING
PRECIP IN PRIOR TO 00Z ALONG AND WEST OF THE DE RIVER...AND THIS
TIMING IS REFLECTED IN THE FCSR. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE
5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THU NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THRU THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST...
AND THUS RESULTANT QPF BULLSEYE. ATTM...MODEL QPF IS GENERALLY A
TRACE OVER THE DELMARVA TO 0.2 INCHES OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST. THE
GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS IN MODEL THERMAL PROFILES AND THUS PTYPE.
THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A COLD AIR DAMMING SITUATION WITH HIGH
PRES OFFSHORE AND THE ABSENCE OF AN INVERSION. NEVERTHELESS...LOW
PRES WELL NORTHWEST WILL LEAD TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INSUFFICIENT
FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A RAIN/SNOW EVENT
WITH CURRENT PROFILES CONFINING RAIN TO SOUTHEAST NJ...DE...AND MD
WHERE MODEL QPF IS LIGHTEST. EXPECTING SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS RANGING
FROM 5:1 TO 10:1 WHICH WOULD GIVE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 INCH INVOF
I-95 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHWEST...BUT THIS IS PRELIMINARY...
STAY TUNED. PRECIP ENDS EARLY FRI WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
AS LOW PRESSURE REDEVELOPS EAST OF NEW ENG...AS TEMPS FALL THRU
THE DAY AFTER MORNING MAXS. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
SQUALLS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE POCONOS...WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE FRI AFTN. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING TO 850 HPA
WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS. THE COMBINATION
OF BLUSTERY WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL LEAD TO LOW WIND CHILLS...THEREFORE...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

SAT AND SUN...
MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION ON SAT GRADUALLY GIVES WAY
TO BRIEF RIDGING ON SUN. ON SAT THE COLUMN WILL DRY OUT...ASIDE
FOR POSSIBILITY OF STRATOCUMULUS BENEATH A MODELED SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...WITH ONE LAST BRISK DAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW. MID LEVEL FLOW ON SUNDAY BECOMES SOUTHWEST...AND
THE COLUMN WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN IN ADVANCE OF STORM SYSTEM TO
THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...
COMPLICATED FORECAST AS LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE APPALACHIANS
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. STRONG MID-LEVEL VORT MAX APPROACHES
THE COAST WITH DUAL JET SETUP FAVORING REDEVELOPMENT INVOF MID ATL
OR NEW ENGLAND. ATTM...THERMAL PROFILES GENERALLY FAVOR SNOW WITH
RAIN MIXING IN CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT THIS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
REDEVELOPMENT COULD LEAD TO COLDER AIR BEING DRAWN IN...WHICH
WOULD BRING SNOW FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE COAST. ANY WINTER WX
WOULD BE EXACERBATED BY COLD ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...MAKING
SURFACES MORE PRONE TO ICING.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FOR ALL TAF SITES. THERE MAY
BE SOME LINGERING SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS AROUND, BUT WE EXPECT
MOSTLY MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10-15 KNOTS, WITH IN AND OUT GUSTS AROUND
20-25 KNOTS INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. FREQUENT GUSTS
SHOULD DROP OFF DURING THE NIGHT AS MIXING WEAKENS, BUT THERE
COULD STILL BE OCCASIONAL GUSTS.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A VFR DAY WITH FREQUENT NORTHWEST GUSTS AGAIN
AROUND 20-25 KNOTS. GUSTS WILL AGAIN DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY VFR FOR MUCH OF THU. LIGHT
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THU NIGHT
BUT MAY REACH ABE/RDG BY LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE WITH THE
SNOW. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON...VFR WITH NW WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 KT.

FRI NIGHT...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

SATURDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY...LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE DAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE
WITH THE SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WIND GUSTS HAVE TAPERED OFF IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DEPARTING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH SCA GUSTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TILL
AROUND 18Z WEDNESDAY IN ALL MARINE ZONES, WITH SOME SCATTERED SCA
GUSTS THROUGH 23Z. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON TO AROUND FIVE FEET. SCA REMAINS THROUGH 23Z WEDNESDAY
ON THE OCEAN, AND 18Z ON THE BAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES
ARE ANTICIPATED. SOME FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...NEAR GALE-FORCE NW GUSTS BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE LEFTOVER NW GALE FORCE GUSTS. FREEZING
SPRAY LIKELY.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY EARLY.

SUNDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...MIKETTA
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/GAINES/ROBERTSON
MARINE...FRANCK/GAINES





000
FXUS61 KPHI 280231
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
931 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM EAST OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT WILL REACH THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND SETTLE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
ON THURSDAY AND REFORM EAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD, BREEZY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MOSTLY
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE STORM
PULLS FARTHER AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15-20
MPH WILL CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AROUND 25-30 MPH AT TIMES. THE FRESH
SNOW COVER UP NORTH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS. LOWS IN THE MID-TEENS TO AROUND 20 ARE EXPECTED
FURTHER SOUTH WERE THE SNOW COVER ISN/T AS DEEP OR WIDESPREAD. A
BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES,
UNDERCUT BY A DEGREE OR TWO UP NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR SNOW COVER.

THE COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE
WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
FOR MOST AREAS, AND CLOSE TO -10 TO -15 FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF CARBON/MONROE, PA AND SUSSEX, NJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR MORNING
CLOUDINESS IN NORTHERN NJ (LINGERING EFFECTS FROM THE DEPARTING
LOW). NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICKUP ONCE AGAIN AS DAYTIME MIXING TAKES
PLACE...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS THE SUN BEGINS TO
SET AND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO DECREASE. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO MAX OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 20S FAR NORTH, AND IN THE LOW
30S SOUTH. AGAIN...A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH A SLIGHT CUT IN THE LOCATIONS OF DEEPER SNOWPACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL PATTERN AT 00Z THU IS COMPRISED OF A DEEP TROUGH AT
70W WITH A NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST
AND A SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW INVOF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...S/WV RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE MID
ATL ON THU...THEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM S/WV ENERGY IS
PROGGED TO PHASE INVOF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND BECOME NEG
TILTED AS IT REACHES 70W AROUND 00Z SAT. THIS LEADS TO LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THRU THE GREAT LAKES ON THU WITH REDEVELOPMENT
CURRENTLY MODELED INVOF GEORGES BANK ON FRI. BY SAT...NORTHERN
STREAM S/WV ENERGY ENTERING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO
INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM S/WV ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF A CLOSED
LOW INVOF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS LEADS TO A COMPLEX AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE...WHICH IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO MOVE THRU THE
APPALACHIANS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THU NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRI AND THEN AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH PTYPE ISSUES LIKELY
WITH BOTH SYSTEMS...AS TEMPERATURES ROLLER COASTER FROM NEAR NORMAL
TO WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT AND THU...
GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES CRESTS OVER THE
REGION. EXPECTING IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING THU AM AS
ATMOS DECOUPLES WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND FRESH SNOW
COVER. EXPECTING MIN TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL REGION-
WIDE. ON THU LARGE SCALE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST AND MODEL X-SECS
INDICATE MID LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTN. THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING
PRECIP IN PRIOR TO 00Z ALONG AND WEST OF THE DE RIVER...AND THIS
TIMING IS REFLECTED IN THE FCSR. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE
5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THU NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THRU THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST...
AND THUS RESULTANT QPF BULLSEYE. ATTM...MODEL QPF IS GENERALLY A
TRACE OVER THE DELMARVA TO 0.2 INCHES OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST. THE
GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS IN MODEL THERMAL PROFILES AND THUS PTYPE.
THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A COLD AIR DAMMING SITUATION WITH HIGH
PRES OFFSHORE AND THE ABSENCE OF AN INVERSION. NEVERTHELESS...LOW
PRES WELL NORTHWEST WILL LEAD TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INSUFFICIENT
FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A RAIN/SNOW EVENT
WITH CURRENT PROFILES CONFINING RAIN TO SOUTHEAST NJ...DE...AND MD
WHERE MODEL QPF IS LIGHTEST. EXPECTING SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS RANGING
FROM 5:1 TO 10:1 WHICH WOULD GIVE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 INCH INVOF
I-95 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHWEST...BUT THIS IS PRELIMINARY...
STAY TUNED. PRECIP ENDS EARLY FRI WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
AS LOW PRESSURE REDEVELOPS EAST OF NEW ENG...AS TEMPS FALL THRU
THE DAY AFTER MORNING MAXS. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
SQUALLS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE POCONOS...WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE FRI AFTN. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING TO 850 HPA
WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS. THE COMBINATION
OF BLUSTERY WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL LEAD TO LOW WIND CHILLS...THEREFORE...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

SAT AND SUN...
MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION ON SAT GRADUALLY GIVES WAY
TO BRIEF RIDGING ON SUN. ON SAT THE COLUMN WILL DRY OUT...ASIDE
FOR POSSIBILITY OF STRATOCUMULUS BENEATH A MODELED SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...WITH ONE LAST BRISK DAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW. MID LEVEL FLOW ON SUNDAY BECOMES SOUTHWEST...AND
THE COLUMN WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN IN ADVANCE OF STORM SYSTEM TO
THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...
COMPLICATED FORECAST AS LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE APPALACHIANS
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. STRONG MID-LEVEL VORT MAX APPROACHES
THE COAST WITH DUAL JET SETUP FAVORING REDEVELOPMENT INVOF MID ATL
OR NEW ENGLAND. ATTM...THERMAL PROFILES GENERALLY FAVOR SNOW WITH
RAIN MIXING IN CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT THIS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
REDEVELOPMENT COULD LEAD TO COLDER AIR BEING DRAWN IN...WHICH
WOULD BRING SNOW FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE COAST. ANY WINTER WX
WOULD BE EXACERBATED BY COLD ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...MAKING
SURFACES MORE PRONE TO ICING.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FOR ALL TAF SITES. THERE MAY
BE SOME LINGERING SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS AROUND, BUT WE EXPECT
MOSTLY MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10-15 KNOTS, WITH IN AND OUT GUSTS AROUND
20-25 KNOTS INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. FREQUENT GUSTS
SHOULD DROP OFF DURING THE NIGHT AS MIXING WEAKENS, BUT THERE
COULD STILL BE OCCASIONAL GUSTS.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A VFR DAY WITH FREQUENT NORTHWEST GUSTS AGAIN
AROUND 20-25 KNOTS. GUSTS WILL AGAIN DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY VFR FOR MUCH OF THU. LIGHT
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THU NIGHT
BUT MAY REACH ABE/RDG BY LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE WITH THE
SNOW. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON...VFR WITH NW WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 KT.

FRI NIGHT...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

SATURDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY...LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE DAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE
WITH THE SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WIND GUSTS HAVE TAPERED OFF IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DEPARTING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH SCA GUSTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TILL
AROUND 18Z WEDNESDAY IN ALL MARINE ZONES, WITH SOME SCATTERED SCA
GUSTS THROUGH 23Z. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON TO AROUND FIVE FEET. SCA REMAINS THROUGH 23Z WEDNESDAY
ON THE OCEAN, AND 18Z ON THE BAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES
ARE ANTICIPATED. SOME FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...NEAR GALE-FORCE NW GUSTS BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE LEFTOVER NW GALE FORCE GUSTS. FREEZING
SPRAY LIKELY.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY EARLY.

SUNDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...MIKETTA
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/GAINES/ROBERTSON
MARINE...FRANCK/GAINES






000
FXUS61 KPHI 280231
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
931 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM EAST OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT WILL REACH THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND SETTLE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
ON THURSDAY AND REFORM EAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD, BREEZY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MOSTLY
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE STORM
PULLS FARTHER AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15-20
MPH WILL CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AROUND 25-30 MPH AT TIMES. THE FRESH
SNOW COVER UP NORTH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS. LOWS IN THE MID-TEENS TO AROUND 20 ARE EXPECTED
FURTHER SOUTH WERE THE SNOW COVER ISN/T AS DEEP OR WIDESPREAD. A
BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES,
UNDERCUT BY A DEGREE OR TWO UP NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR SNOW COVER.

THE COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE
WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
FOR MOST AREAS, AND CLOSE TO -10 TO -15 FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF CARBON/MONROE, PA AND SUSSEX, NJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR MORNING
CLOUDINESS IN NORTHERN NJ (LINGERING EFFECTS FROM THE DEPARTING
LOW). NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICKUP ONCE AGAIN AS DAYTIME MIXING TAKES
PLACE...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS THE SUN BEGINS TO
SET AND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO DECREASE. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO MAX OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 20S FAR NORTH, AND IN THE LOW
30S SOUTH. AGAIN...A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH A SLIGHT CUT IN THE LOCATIONS OF DEEPER SNOWPACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL PATTERN AT 00Z THU IS COMPRISED OF A DEEP TROUGH AT
70W WITH A NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST
AND A SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW INVOF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...S/WV RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE MID
ATL ON THU...THEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM S/WV ENERGY IS
PROGGED TO PHASE INVOF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND BECOME NEG
TILTED AS IT REACHES 70W AROUND 00Z SAT. THIS LEADS TO LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THRU THE GREAT LAKES ON THU WITH REDEVELOPMENT
CURRENTLY MODELED INVOF GEORGES BANK ON FRI. BY SAT...NORTHERN
STREAM S/WV ENERGY ENTERING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO
INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM S/WV ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF A CLOSED
LOW INVOF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS LEADS TO A COMPLEX AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE...WHICH IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO MOVE THRU THE
APPALACHIANS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THU NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRI AND THEN AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH PTYPE ISSUES LIKELY
WITH BOTH SYSTEMS...AS TEMPERATURES ROLLER COASTER FROM NEAR NORMAL
TO WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT AND THU...
GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES CRESTS OVER THE
REGION. EXPECTING IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING THU AM AS
ATMOS DECOUPLES WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND FRESH SNOW
COVER. EXPECTING MIN TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL REGION-
WIDE. ON THU LARGE SCALE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST AND MODEL X-SECS
INDICATE MID LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTN. THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING
PRECIP IN PRIOR TO 00Z ALONG AND WEST OF THE DE RIVER...AND THIS
TIMING IS REFLECTED IN THE FCSR. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE
5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THU NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THRU THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST...
AND THUS RESULTANT QPF BULLSEYE. ATTM...MODEL QPF IS GENERALLY A
TRACE OVER THE DELMARVA TO 0.2 INCHES OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST. THE
GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS IN MODEL THERMAL PROFILES AND THUS PTYPE.
THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A COLD AIR DAMMING SITUATION WITH HIGH
PRES OFFSHORE AND THE ABSENCE OF AN INVERSION. NEVERTHELESS...LOW
PRES WELL NORTHWEST WILL LEAD TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INSUFFICIENT
FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A RAIN/SNOW EVENT
WITH CURRENT PROFILES CONFINING RAIN TO SOUTHEAST NJ...DE...AND MD
WHERE MODEL QPF IS LIGHTEST. EXPECTING SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS RANGING
FROM 5:1 TO 10:1 WHICH WOULD GIVE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 INCH INVOF
I-95 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHWEST...BUT THIS IS PRELIMINARY...
STAY TUNED. PRECIP ENDS EARLY FRI WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
AS LOW PRESSURE REDEVELOPS EAST OF NEW ENG...AS TEMPS FALL THRU
THE DAY AFTER MORNING MAXS. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
SQUALLS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE POCONOS...WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE FRI AFTN. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING TO 850 HPA
WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS. THE COMBINATION
OF BLUSTERY WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL LEAD TO LOW WIND CHILLS...THEREFORE...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

SAT AND SUN...
MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION ON SAT GRADUALLY GIVES WAY
TO BRIEF RIDGING ON SUN. ON SAT THE COLUMN WILL DRY OUT...ASIDE
FOR POSSIBILITY OF STRATOCUMULUS BENEATH A MODELED SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...WITH ONE LAST BRISK DAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW. MID LEVEL FLOW ON SUNDAY BECOMES SOUTHWEST...AND
THE COLUMN WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN IN ADVANCE OF STORM SYSTEM TO
THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...
COMPLICATED FORECAST AS LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE APPALACHIANS
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. STRONG MID-LEVEL VORT MAX APPROACHES
THE COAST WITH DUAL JET SETUP FAVORING REDEVELOPMENT INVOF MID ATL
OR NEW ENGLAND. ATTM...THERMAL PROFILES GENERALLY FAVOR SNOW WITH
RAIN MIXING IN CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT THIS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
REDEVELOPMENT COULD LEAD TO COLDER AIR BEING DRAWN IN...WHICH
WOULD BRING SNOW FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE COAST. ANY WINTER WX
WOULD BE EXACERBATED BY COLD ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...MAKING
SURFACES MORE PRONE TO ICING.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FOR ALL TAF SITES. THERE MAY
BE SOME LINGERING SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS AROUND, BUT WE EXPECT
MOSTLY MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10-15 KNOTS, WITH IN AND OUT GUSTS AROUND
20-25 KNOTS INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. FREQUENT GUSTS
SHOULD DROP OFF DURING THE NIGHT AS MIXING WEAKENS, BUT THERE
COULD STILL BE OCCASIONAL GUSTS.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A VFR DAY WITH FREQUENT NORTHWEST GUSTS AGAIN
AROUND 20-25 KNOTS. GUSTS WILL AGAIN DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY VFR FOR MUCH OF THU. LIGHT
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THU NIGHT
BUT MAY REACH ABE/RDG BY LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE WITH THE
SNOW. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON...VFR WITH NW WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 KT.

FRI NIGHT...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

SATURDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY...LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE DAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE
WITH THE SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WIND GUSTS HAVE TAPERED OFF IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DEPARTING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH SCA GUSTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TILL
AROUND 18Z WEDNESDAY IN ALL MARINE ZONES, WITH SOME SCATTERED SCA
GUSTS THROUGH 23Z. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON TO AROUND FIVE FEET. SCA REMAINS THROUGH 23Z WEDNESDAY
ON THE OCEAN, AND 18Z ON THE BAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES
ARE ANTICIPATED. SOME FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...NEAR GALE-FORCE NW GUSTS BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE LEFTOVER NW GALE FORCE GUSTS. FREEZING
SPRAY LIKELY.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY EARLY.

SUNDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...MIKETTA
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/GAINES/ROBERTSON
MARINE...FRANCK/GAINES





000
FXUS61 KLWX 280229
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
929 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY...THEN PASS ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY AND REMAINS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES REGION
LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SLOWLY PULLING NE FROM CAPE COD
THIS EVENING WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE IS DRYING...THE MID ATLANTIC
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE LOW
AS WELL AS STRANDS OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM. CLOUDS HAVE SHOWN A SLOW EROSION TREND...ALTHOUGH IT
LOOKS LIKE THEY COULD HANG ON A LITTLE LONGER THAN EXPECTED. THIS
SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES AS FALLS WILL BE DRIVEN
BY CAA IN THE GUSTY NW WINDS. WITH LOWS EXPECTED IN THE TEENS TO
NEAR 20...ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ON UNTREATED ROADS WILL REFREEZE.
HAVE ISSUED AN SPS HIGHLIGHTING THIS ISSUE. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP
TO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH AND TEENS IN THE SOUTH...WITH
PERHAPS SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN TOPS SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO.

VSBY ARE IMPROVING IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS...SO THE SNOW INTENSITY IS
LIKELY DECREASING. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE
ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT FURTHER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...RECENT HIGHWAY
CAMERAS HAVE SHOWN SNOW COVERED ROADS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN...SO
WILL ALLOW THE WINTER WX ADVISORY TO CONTINUE UNTIL 1 AM.

THE START OF WEDNESDAY WILL BE MET W/ CLEAR SKIES AND STILL
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND DAWN WILL STILL BE
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. ALTHOUGH STILL QUITE COLD...TEMPS
WILL QUICKLY JUMP BACK INTO THE 20S AND L30S BY LATE MRNG. NOT
ENOUGH TIME IN THE DAY HOWEVER TO GET MUCH ABOVE FREEZING...ESPEC
W/ NW WINDS CONTINUING TO GUST IN THE 15-25MPH RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE REGION. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO
THE TEENS AS THE REGION RADIATES OVERNIGHT UNDER CALM AND CLEAR
CONDITIONS. A QUICK TRANSITION WILL OCCUR THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW MOVES INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION ALOFT WITH 850 TEMPS GOING POSITIVE THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A GREAT LAKES CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS ACROSS MOST OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW. DUE TO
SNOWCOVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...TEMPS
NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE SHOULD STAY COLDER AND BARELY REACH
FREEZING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS FURTHER SOUTH WILL REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 30S.

DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION TO
MOVE ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. FCST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A GOOD AMT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AS
THE PRECIP MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO START AS THE COLUMN WETBULBS. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE APPALACHIAN
REGION...LIGHT PRECIP WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC STAYING SNOW NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE AND
RAIN/SNOW FURTHER SOUTH WHERE TEMPS WILL BE WARMER. ALL RAIN IS
EXPECTED SOUTH OF DC INCLUDING THE PIEDMONT...CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND
SOUTHERN MD BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN/SNOW AS THE WAVE OF PRECIP MOVES
EASTWARD.

NOTE FOR AREAS NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE...SATURATION
SHOULD LEAD TO A BELOW FREEZING COLUMN BUT WAA ALOFT MAY LEAD TO
SLEET MIXING IN. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT RANGING FROM 2-3
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES TO 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN MARYLAND. LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH.
HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES ARE POSSIBLE AND AN
ADVISORY MAY BE IN THE FUTURE FOR THIS AREA. ENERGY FROM AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY LEAD TO
FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF HAS A NEG TILT H5 TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS TAPS VERY COLD H85
TEMPS AOB -14 ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SINGLE
DIGITS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND THE TEENS TO THE METRO AREAS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS.  WINDS WILL CONTINUE STRONG ON FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH LOW MIN TEMPS LIKELY PRODUCING ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILLS AT
LEAST WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ALONG WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT SEE H5 HGHT RISES AND A BIT OF MODERATING
TEMPS...AS SUNDAY HAS A DEEPENING LOW APPROACHING THE CWA FROM THE
TN VALLEY.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER BY 6 HOURS...BUT BOTH
MODELS HAVE THE SAME IDEA.  WITH COLD TEMPS IN PLACE...THIS WILL
BRING RAIN OR SNOW LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  MONDAY WILL
SEE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR WITH 12Z ECMWF TEMPS ONCE AGAIN
REACHING AOB -14C BY TUESDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH ANOTHER GOOD CHC
OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.

PER THE EXTENDED MEX GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM...TEMPS WILL BE
GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH SATURDAY AND TUESDAY APPEARING TO BE
THE COLDEST WITH BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL.
SATURDAY HAS THE LEAST CHANCE OF PCPN...AND MON NIGHT/TUE HAVING THE
GREATEST CHC OF PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BAND OF CLOUDS WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND CENTRAL MD IS
GRADUALLY THINNING OUT THIS EVENING. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY
LINGER TONIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NW WIND GUSTS AOA 20 KT
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
CHO...ALTHOUGH SOME LULLS IN THE GUSTS MAY OCCUR AT TIMES TONIGHT.
THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS. RA/SN IS EXPECTED WHICH MAY REDUCE
VSBYS INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS CONTINUES ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH VFR.
MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE TERMINALS LATE SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER BLAST OF NORTHWEST WINDS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SCA CONDITIONS IN NW FLOW CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
EVENING AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. THE PERIOD OF BREEZY
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WELL. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN...BUT HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UPPER
TIDAL POTOMAC...AS IT WILL LIKELY TAKE TIME FOR THE GUSTS TO
COMPLETELY SUBSIDE.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
EVENING AND SCA WILL BE POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS
BY FRIDAY MORNING AND NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO S 20-30 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 45 KTS ON THE WATERS. GALES WILL BE LIKELY FRIDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM...GALES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN
RETURN AGAIN ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ501.
VA...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ501-
     503-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEE/GMS
NEAR TERM...ADS/GMS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...ADS/LEE/HAS
MARINE...ADS/LEE/HAS









000
FXUS61 KLWX 280229
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
929 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY...THEN PASS ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY AND REMAINS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES REGION
LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SLOWLY PULLING NE FROM CAPE COD
THIS EVENING WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE IS DRYING...THE MID ATLANTIC
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE LOW
AS WELL AS STRANDS OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM. CLOUDS HAVE SHOWN A SLOW EROSION TREND...ALTHOUGH IT
LOOKS LIKE THEY COULD HANG ON A LITTLE LONGER THAN EXPECTED. THIS
SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES AS FALLS WILL BE DRIVEN
BY CAA IN THE GUSTY NW WINDS. WITH LOWS EXPECTED IN THE TEENS TO
NEAR 20...ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ON UNTREATED ROADS WILL REFREEZE.
HAVE ISSUED AN SPS HIGHLIGHTING THIS ISSUE. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP
TO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH AND TEENS IN THE SOUTH...WITH
PERHAPS SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN TOPS SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO.

VSBY ARE IMPROVING IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS...SO THE SNOW INTENSITY IS
LIKELY DECREASING. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE
ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT FURTHER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...RECENT HIGHWAY
CAMERAS HAVE SHOWN SNOW COVERED ROADS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN...SO
WILL ALLOW THE WINTER WX ADVISORY TO CONTINUE UNTIL 1 AM.

THE START OF WEDNESDAY WILL BE MET W/ CLEAR SKIES AND STILL
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND DAWN WILL STILL BE
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. ALTHOUGH STILL QUITE COLD...TEMPS
WILL QUICKLY JUMP BACK INTO THE 20S AND L30S BY LATE MRNG. NOT
ENOUGH TIME IN THE DAY HOWEVER TO GET MUCH ABOVE FREEZING...ESPEC
W/ NW WINDS CONTINUING TO GUST IN THE 15-25MPH RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE REGION. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO
THE TEENS AS THE REGION RADIATES OVERNIGHT UNDER CALM AND CLEAR
CONDITIONS. A QUICK TRANSITION WILL OCCUR THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW MOVES INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION ALOFT WITH 850 TEMPS GOING POSITIVE THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A GREAT LAKES CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS ACROSS MOST OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW. DUE TO
SNOWCOVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...TEMPS
NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE SHOULD STAY COLDER AND BARELY REACH
FREEZING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS FURTHER SOUTH WILL REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 30S.

DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION TO
MOVE ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. FCST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A GOOD AMT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AS
THE PRECIP MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO START AS THE COLUMN WETBULBS. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE APPALACHIAN
REGION...LIGHT PRECIP WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC STAYING SNOW NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE AND
RAIN/SNOW FURTHER SOUTH WHERE TEMPS WILL BE WARMER. ALL RAIN IS
EXPECTED SOUTH OF DC INCLUDING THE PIEDMONT...CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND
SOUTHERN MD BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN/SNOW AS THE WAVE OF PRECIP MOVES
EASTWARD.

NOTE FOR AREAS NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE...SATURATION
SHOULD LEAD TO A BELOW FREEZING COLUMN BUT WAA ALOFT MAY LEAD TO
SLEET MIXING IN. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT RANGING FROM 2-3
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES TO 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN MARYLAND. LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH.
HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES ARE POSSIBLE AND AN
ADVISORY MAY BE IN THE FUTURE FOR THIS AREA. ENERGY FROM AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY LEAD TO
FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF HAS A NEG TILT H5 TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS TAPS VERY COLD H85
TEMPS AOB -14 ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SINGLE
DIGITS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND THE TEENS TO THE METRO AREAS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS.  WINDS WILL CONTINUE STRONG ON FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH LOW MIN TEMPS LIKELY PRODUCING ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILLS AT
LEAST WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ALONG WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT SEE H5 HGHT RISES AND A BIT OF MODERATING
TEMPS...AS SUNDAY HAS A DEEPENING LOW APPROACHING THE CWA FROM THE
TN VALLEY.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER BY 6 HOURS...BUT BOTH
MODELS HAVE THE SAME IDEA.  WITH COLD TEMPS IN PLACE...THIS WILL
BRING RAIN OR SNOW LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  MONDAY WILL
SEE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR WITH 12Z ECMWF TEMPS ONCE AGAIN
REACHING AOB -14C BY TUESDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH ANOTHER GOOD CHC
OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.

PER THE EXTENDED MEX GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM...TEMPS WILL BE
GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH SATURDAY AND TUESDAY APPEARING TO BE
THE COLDEST WITH BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL.
SATURDAY HAS THE LEAST CHANCE OF PCPN...AND MON NIGHT/TUE HAVING THE
GREATEST CHC OF PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BAND OF CLOUDS WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND CENTRAL MD IS
GRADUALLY THINNING OUT THIS EVENING. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY
LINGER TONIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NW WIND GUSTS AOA 20 KT
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
CHO...ALTHOUGH SOME LULLS IN THE GUSTS MAY OCCUR AT TIMES TONIGHT.
THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS. RA/SN IS EXPECTED WHICH MAY REDUCE
VSBYS INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS CONTINUES ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH VFR.
MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE TERMINALS LATE SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER BLAST OF NORTHWEST WINDS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SCA CONDITIONS IN NW FLOW CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
EVENING AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. THE PERIOD OF BREEZY
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WELL. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN...BUT HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UPPER
TIDAL POTOMAC...AS IT WILL LIKELY TAKE TIME FOR THE GUSTS TO
COMPLETELY SUBSIDE.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
EVENING AND SCA WILL BE POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS
BY FRIDAY MORNING AND NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO S 20-30 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 45 KTS ON THE WATERS. GALES WILL BE LIKELY FRIDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM...GALES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN
RETURN AGAIN ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ501.
VA...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ501-
     503-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEE/GMS
NEAR TERM...ADS/GMS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...ADS/LEE/HAS
MARINE...ADS/LEE/HAS









000
FXUS61 KLWX 280229
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
929 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY...THEN PASS ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY AND REMAINS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES REGION
LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SLOWLY PULLING NE FROM CAPE COD
THIS EVENING WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE IS DRYING...THE MID ATLANTIC
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE LOW
AS WELL AS STRANDS OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM. CLOUDS HAVE SHOWN A SLOW EROSION TREND...ALTHOUGH IT
LOOKS LIKE THEY COULD HANG ON A LITTLE LONGER THAN EXPECTED. THIS
SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES AS FALLS WILL BE DRIVEN
BY CAA IN THE GUSTY NW WINDS. WITH LOWS EXPECTED IN THE TEENS TO
NEAR 20...ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ON UNTREATED ROADS WILL REFREEZE.
HAVE ISSUED AN SPS HIGHLIGHTING THIS ISSUE. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP
TO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH AND TEENS IN THE SOUTH...WITH
PERHAPS SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN TOPS SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO.

VSBY ARE IMPROVING IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS...SO THE SNOW INTENSITY IS
LIKELY DECREASING. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE
ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT FURTHER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...RECENT HIGHWAY
CAMERAS HAVE SHOWN SNOW COVERED ROADS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN...SO
WILL ALLOW THE WINTER WX ADVISORY TO CONTINUE UNTIL 1 AM.

THE START OF WEDNESDAY WILL BE MET W/ CLEAR SKIES AND STILL
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND DAWN WILL STILL BE
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. ALTHOUGH STILL QUITE COLD...TEMPS
WILL QUICKLY JUMP BACK INTO THE 20S AND L30S BY LATE MRNG. NOT
ENOUGH TIME IN THE DAY HOWEVER TO GET MUCH ABOVE FREEZING...ESPEC
W/ NW WINDS CONTINUING TO GUST IN THE 15-25MPH RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE REGION. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO
THE TEENS AS THE REGION RADIATES OVERNIGHT UNDER CALM AND CLEAR
CONDITIONS. A QUICK TRANSITION WILL OCCUR THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW MOVES INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION ALOFT WITH 850 TEMPS GOING POSITIVE THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A GREAT LAKES CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS ACROSS MOST OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW. DUE TO
SNOWCOVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...TEMPS
NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE SHOULD STAY COLDER AND BARELY REACH
FREEZING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS FURTHER SOUTH WILL REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 30S.

DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION TO
MOVE ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. FCST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A GOOD AMT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AS
THE PRECIP MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO START AS THE COLUMN WETBULBS. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE APPALACHIAN
REGION...LIGHT PRECIP WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC STAYING SNOW NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE AND
RAIN/SNOW FURTHER SOUTH WHERE TEMPS WILL BE WARMER. ALL RAIN IS
EXPECTED SOUTH OF DC INCLUDING THE PIEDMONT...CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND
SOUTHERN MD BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN/SNOW AS THE WAVE OF PRECIP MOVES
EASTWARD.

NOTE FOR AREAS NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE...SATURATION
SHOULD LEAD TO A BELOW FREEZING COLUMN BUT WAA ALOFT MAY LEAD TO
SLEET MIXING IN. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT RANGING FROM 2-3
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES TO 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN MARYLAND. LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH.
HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES ARE POSSIBLE AND AN
ADVISORY MAY BE IN THE FUTURE FOR THIS AREA. ENERGY FROM AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY LEAD TO
FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF HAS A NEG TILT H5 TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS TAPS VERY COLD H85
TEMPS AOB -14 ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SINGLE
DIGITS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND THE TEENS TO THE METRO AREAS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS.  WINDS WILL CONTINUE STRONG ON FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH LOW MIN TEMPS LIKELY PRODUCING ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILLS AT
LEAST WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ALONG WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT SEE H5 HGHT RISES AND A BIT OF MODERATING
TEMPS...AS SUNDAY HAS A DEEPENING LOW APPROACHING THE CWA FROM THE
TN VALLEY.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER BY 6 HOURS...BUT BOTH
MODELS HAVE THE SAME IDEA.  WITH COLD TEMPS IN PLACE...THIS WILL
BRING RAIN OR SNOW LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  MONDAY WILL
SEE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR WITH 12Z ECMWF TEMPS ONCE AGAIN
REACHING AOB -14C BY TUESDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH ANOTHER GOOD CHC
OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.

PER THE EXTENDED MEX GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM...TEMPS WILL BE
GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH SATURDAY AND TUESDAY APPEARING TO BE
THE COLDEST WITH BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL.
SATURDAY HAS THE LEAST CHANCE OF PCPN...AND MON NIGHT/TUE HAVING THE
GREATEST CHC OF PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BAND OF CLOUDS WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND CENTRAL MD IS
GRADUALLY THINNING OUT THIS EVENING. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY
LINGER TONIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NW WIND GUSTS AOA 20 KT
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
CHO...ALTHOUGH SOME LULLS IN THE GUSTS MAY OCCUR AT TIMES TONIGHT.
THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS. RA/SN IS EXPECTED WHICH MAY REDUCE
VSBYS INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS CONTINUES ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH VFR.
MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE TERMINALS LATE SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER BLAST OF NORTHWEST WINDS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SCA CONDITIONS IN NW FLOW CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
EVENING AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. THE PERIOD OF BREEZY
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WELL. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN...BUT HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UPPER
TIDAL POTOMAC...AS IT WILL LIKELY TAKE TIME FOR THE GUSTS TO
COMPLETELY SUBSIDE.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
EVENING AND SCA WILL BE POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS
BY FRIDAY MORNING AND NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO S 20-30 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 45 KTS ON THE WATERS. GALES WILL BE LIKELY FRIDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM...GALES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN
RETURN AGAIN ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ501.
VA...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ501-
     503-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEE/GMS
NEAR TERM...ADS/GMS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...ADS/LEE/HAS
MARINE...ADS/LEE/HAS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 280229
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
929 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY...THEN PASS ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY AND REMAINS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES REGION
LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SLOWLY PULLING NE FROM CAPE COD
THIS EVENING WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE IS DRYING...THE MID ATLANTIC
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE LOW
AS WELL AS STRANDS OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM. CLOUDS HAVE SHOWN A SLOW EROSION TREND...ALTHOUGH IT
LOOKS LIKE THEY COULD HANG ON A LITTLE LONGER THAN EXPECTED. THIS
SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES AS FALLS WILL BE DRIVEN
BY CAA IN THE GUSTY NW WINDS. WITH LOWS EXPECTED IN THE TEENS TO
NEAR 20...ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ON UNTREATED ROADS WILL REFREEZE.
HAVE ISSUED AN SPS HIGHLIGHTING THIS ISSUE. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP
TO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH AND TEENS IN THE SOUTH...WITH
PERHAPS SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN TOPS SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO.

VSBY ARE IMPROVING IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS...SO THE SNOW INTENSITY IS
LIKELY DECREASING. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE
ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT FURTHER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...RECENT HIGHWAY
CAMERAS HAVE SHOWN SNOW COVERED ROADS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN...SO
WILL ALLOW THE WINTER WX ADVISORY TO CONTINUE UNTIL 1 AM.

THE START OF WEDNESDAY WILL BE MET W/ CLEAR SKIES AND STILL
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND DAWN WILL STILL BE
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. ALTHOUGH STILL QUITE COLD...TEMPS
WILL QUICKLY JUMP BACK INTO THE 20S AND L30S BY LATE MRNG. NOT
ENOUGH TIME IN THE DAY HOWEVER TO GET MUCH ABOVE FREEZING...ESPEC
W/ NW WINDS CONTINUING TO GUST IN THE 15-25MPH RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE REGION. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO
THE TEENS AS THE REGION RADIATES OVERNIGHT UNDER CALM AND CLEAR
CONDITIONS. A QUICK TRANSITION WILL OCCUR THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW MOVES INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION ALOFT WITH 850 TEMPS GOING POSITIVE THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A GREAT LAKES CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS ACROSS MOST OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW. DUE TO
SNOWCOVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...TEMPS
NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE SHOULD STAY COLDER AND BARELY REACH
FREEZING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS FURTHER SOUTH WILL REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 30S.

DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION TO
MOVE ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. FCST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A GOOD AMT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AS
THE PRECIP MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO START AS THE COLUMN WETBULBS. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE APPALACHIAN
REGION...LIGHT PRECIP WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC STAYING SNOW NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE AND
RAIN/SNOW FURTHER SOUTH WHERE TEMPS WILL BE WARMER. ALL RAIN IS
EXPECTED SOUTH OF DC INCLUDING THE PIEDMONT...CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND
SOUTHERN MD BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN/SNOW AS THE WAVE OF PRECIP MOVES
EASTWARD.

NOTE FOR AREAS NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE...SATURATION
SHOULD LEAD TO A BELOW FREEZING COLUMN BUT WAA ALOFT MAY LEAD TO
SLEET MIXING IN. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT RANGING FROM 2-3
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES TO 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN MARYLAND. LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH.
HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES ARE POSSIBLE AND AN
ADVISORY MAY BE IN THE FUTURE FOR THIS AREA. ENERGY FROM AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY LEAD TO
FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF HAS A NEG TILT H5 TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS TAPS VERY COLD H85
TEMPS AOB -14 ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SINGLE
DIGITS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND THE TEENS TO THE METRO AREAS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS.  WINDS WILL CONTINUE STRONG ON FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH LOW MIN TEMPS LIKELY PRODUCING ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILLS AT
LEAST WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ALONG WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT SEE H5 HGHT RISES AND A BIT OF MODERATING
TEMPS...AS SUNDAY HAS A DEEPENING LOW APPROACHING THE CWA FROM THE
TN VALLEY.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER BY 6 HOURS...BUT BOTH
MODELS HAVE THE SAME IDEA.  WITH COLD TEMPS IN PLACE...THIS WILL
BRING RAIN OR SNOW LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  MONDAY WILL
SEE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR WITH 12Z ECMWF TEMPS ONCE AGAIN
REACHING AOB -14C BY TUESDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH ANOTHER GOOD CHC
OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.

PER THE EXTENDED MEX GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM...TEMPS WILL BE
GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH SATURDAY AND TUESDAY APPEARING TO BE
THE COLDEST WITH BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL.
SATURDAY HAS THE LEAST CHANCE OF PCPN...AND MON NIGHT/TUE HAVING THE
GREATEST CHC OF PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BAND OF CLOUDS WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND CENTRAL MD IS
GRADUALLY THINNING OUT THIS EVENING. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY
LINGER TONIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NW WIND GUSTS AOA 20 KT
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
CHO...ALTHOUGH SOME LULLS IN THE GUSTS MAY OCCUR AT TIMES TONIGHT.
THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS. RA/SN IS EXPECTED WHICH MAY REDUCE
VSBYS INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS CONTINUES ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH VFR.
MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE TERMINALS LATE SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER BLAST OF NORTHWEST WINDS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SCA CONDITIONS IN NW FLOW CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
EVENING AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. THE PERIOD OF BREEZY
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WELL. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN...BUT HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UPPER
TIDAL POTOMAC...AS IT WILL LIKELY TAKE TIME FOR THE GUSTS TO
COMPLETELY SUBSIDE.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
EVENING AND SCA WILL BE POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS
BY FRIDAY MORNING AND NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO S 20-30 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 45 KTS ON THE WATERS. GALES WILL BE LIKELY FRIDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM...GALES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN
RETURN AGAIN ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ501.
VA...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ501-
     503-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEE/GMS
NEAR TERM...ADS/GMS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...ADS/LEE/HAS
MARINE...ADS/LEE/HAS








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280127
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
827 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND DECREASE CLOUDS TONIGHT. A COLD
WEDNESDAY WILL FOLLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE DEFORMATION ZONE THAT HAS SLOWLY SAGGED THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING HAS PASSED TO THE SOUTH OF MOST OF THE PITTSBURGH
AREA...WITH ARCTIC AIR RAPIDLY BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. THIS IS
EVIDENCED BY DEWPOINTS FALLING RAPIDLY TOWARD 5F ACROSS AND NORTH
OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. LIKEWISE...LOW CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO BECOME
SCOURED OUT AT A FAIRLY RAPID CLIP...AND INFRARED FOG PRODUCT
11-3.9 MICRO IMAGERY IS INDICATING A RAPID EROSION OF ALL STRATUS
NORTH OF I-80 AT THIS HOUR. DRIER AIR WILL ADVANCE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE TO BREAKUP AND TEMPERATURES TO GO INTO FREE FALL. DUE TO
A MUCH LONGER CLEAR/CLEARING PERIOD TO THE NORTH...LOWS WILL
LIKELY CHALLENGE ZERO...HOWEVER EVEN ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH...TEMPERATURES AROUND 10F SEEM PLAUSIBLE.

AHEAD OF THE DRIER AIR...A FEW MORE HOURS OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
SEEM LIKELY FOR THE RIDGES...PARTICULARLY IN WEST VIRGINIA AND
MARYLAND. TRAFFIC CAMS IN BOTH STATES STILL INDICATE FALLING SNOW
AND LESS THAN IDEAL CONDITIONS...SO THE ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE
GIVEN FAVORABLE DENDRITIC ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH HABIT...LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY...AND GOOD OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT TO THE LIFT.
HOWEVER...EVEN IN THE RIDGES...DRY AIR WILL DETERIORATE BOUNDARY
LAYER SATURATION AFTER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN BY MORNING. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY HIGHS WERE LIMITED TO ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS
WITH SFC HIGH PRES SLIDING ACRS THE UPR OH REGION. SHRTWV RIDGING
WL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT STRENGTHENING
WARM ADVCTN IN ADVN OF TROUGH DIGGING RAPIDLY TWD THE WRN LAKES WL
IMPROVE THE THURSDAY MRNG LOWS.

THE NAM...GFS...ECMWF FORECASTED CENTER TRACK OF THAT SYSTEM RMNS
N OF THE REGION...HENCE CONTD WARM ADVCTN ON THE ERN FLANK IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THE
SCENARIO WL FAVOR A WINTRY MIX COMPLICATED BY COLD SURFACES
LEFTOVER OVR FM THE PREVIOUS TWO NGTS.

ANY PCPN THAT DOES TURN TO RAIN WL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
FREEZE ON CONTACT. IN ADDITION...THE DRY LAYER WHICH IS PROGGED TO
LIMIT PCPN ONSET IN THE MRNG MAY OFFSET A WEAKER WARM ADVCTN
REGIME VIA WET BULBING. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT FORECAST WL FEATURE A
WINTRY MIX WITH A CHANGE TO SNOW WITH PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEMS COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY EVENING. A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS ALSO
INCLUDED FOR THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL. QPF WAS COMPLETED USING
WPC GUIDANCE TRIMMED FOR LOCAL POP TRENDS WITH SNOW TOTALS
ADJUSTED FOR SFC TEMP EXPECTATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COLD TEMPS WL AGAIN VISIT THE REGION.
DEPTH OF COLD AT MOMENT LKS SUFFICIENT TO SPPRT SNOW SHWRS...SO
LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED OVR THE RIDGES PAST DAYBREAK DESPITE
DRY ADVCTN AND LACK OF ANY REINFORCING LAKE ERIE MSTR DUE TO ICE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO WANE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS
DRIER AIR ARRIVES TO CHOKE OFF THE MOISTURE. EXPECTING MVFR
CIGS/VSBY TO CONTINUE IN THE LIGHT SNOW BEFORE FINALLY TAPERING
OFF LAST NEAR KMGW/KLBE AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
SCATTER OUT AS THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. ALREADY
BEGINNING TO SEE THIS IN DUJ WHERE THE LLVL MOISTURE EVACUATED
LEAVING A MID-DECK LINGERING. CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR MOST
TERMINALS BY ABOUT DAYBREAK WEDS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME SCT LOW
CLOUDS COULD REMAIN NEAR KMGW. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDS AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074-
     076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ023-
     041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280127
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
827 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND DECREASE CLOUDS TONIGHT. A COLD
WEDNESDAY WILL FOLLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE DEFORMATION ZONE THAT HAS SLOWLY SAGGED THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING HAS PASSED TO THE SOUTH OF MOST OF THE PITTSBURGH
AREA...WITH ARCTIC AIR RAPIDLY BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. THIS IS
EVIDENCED BY DEWPOINTS FALLING RAPIDLY TOWARD 5F ACROSS AND NORTH
OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. LIKEWISE...LOW CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO BECOME
SCOURED OUT AT A FAIRLY RAPID CLIP...AND INFRARED FOG PRODUCT
11-3.9 MICRO IMAGERY IS INDICATING A RAPID EROSION OF ALL STRATUS
NORTH OF I-80 AT THIS HOUR. DRIER AIR WILL ADVANCE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE TO BREAKUP AND TEMPERATURES TO GO INTO FREE FALL. DUE TO
A MUCH LONGER CLEAR/CLEARING PERIOD TO THE NORTH...LOWS WILL
LIKELY CHALLENGE ZERO...HOWEVER EVEN ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH...TEMPERATURES AROUND 10F SEEM PLAUSIBLE.

AHEAD OF THE DRIER AIR...A FEW MORE HOURS OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
SEEM LIKELY FOR THE RIDGES...PARTICULARLY IN WEST VIRGINIA AND
MARYLAND. TRAFFIC CAMS IN BOTH STATES STILL INDICATE FALLING SNOW
AND LESS THAN IDEAL CONDITIONS...SO THE ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE
GIVEN FAVORABLE DENDRITIC ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH HABIT...LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY...AND GOOD OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT TO THE LIFT.
HOWEVER...EVEN IN THE RIDGES...DRY AIR WILL DETERIORATE BOUNDARY
LAYER SATURATION AFTER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN BY MORNING. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY HIGHS WERE LIMITED TO ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS
WITH SFC HIGH PRES SLIDING ACRS THE UPR OH REGION. SHRTWV RIDGING
WL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT STRENGTHENING
WARM ADVCTN IN ADVN OF TROUGH DIGGING RAPIDLY TWD THE WRN LAKES WL
IMPROVE THE THURSDAY MRNG LOWS.

THE NAM...GFS...ECMWF FORECASTED CENTER TRACK OF THAT SYSTEM RMNS
N OF THE REGION...HENCE CONTD WARM ADVCTN ON THE ERN FLANK IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THE
SCENARIO WL FAVOR A WINTRY MIX COMPLICATED BY COLD SURFACES
LEFTOVER OVR FM THE PREVIOUS TWO NGTS.

ANY PCPN THAT DOES TURN TO RAIN WL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
FREEZE ON CONTACT. IN ADDITION...THE DRY LAYER WHICH IS PROGGED TO
LIMIT PCPN ONSET IN THE MRNG MAY OFFSET A WEAKER WARM ADVCTN
REGIME VIA WET BULBING. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT FORECAST WL FEATURE A
WINTRY MIX WITH A CHANGE TO SNOW WITH PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEMS COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY EVENING. A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS ALSO
INCLUDED FOR THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL. QPF WAS COMPLETED USING
WPC GUIDANCE TRIMMED FOR LOCAL POP TRENDS WITH SNOW TOTALS
ADJUSTED FOR SFC TEMP EXPECTATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COLD TEMPS WL AGAIN VISIT THE REGION.
DEPTH OF COLD AT MOMENT LKS SUFFICIENT TO SPPRT SNOW SHWRS...SO
LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED OVR THE RIDGES PAST DAYBREAK DESPITE
DRY ADVCTN AND LACK OF ANY REINFORCING LAKE ERIE MSTR DUE TO ICE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO WANE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS
DRIER AIR ARRIVES TO CHOKE OFF THE MOISTURE. EXPECTING MVFR
CIGS/VSBY TO CONTINUE IN THE LIGHT SNOW BEFORE FINALLY TAPERING
OFF LAST NEAR KMGW/KLBE AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
SCATTER OUT AS THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. ALREADY
BEGINNING TO SEE THIS IN DUJ WHERE THE LLVL MOISTURE EVACUATED
LEAVING A MID-DECK LINGERING. CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR MOST
TERMINALS BY ABOUT DAYBREAK WEDS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME SCT LOW
CLOUDS COULD REMAIN NEAR KMGW. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDS AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074-
     076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ023-
     041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280127
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
827 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND DECREASE CLOUDS TONIGHT. A COLD
WEDNESDAY WILL FOLLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE DEFORMATION ZONE THAT HAS SLOWLY SAGGED THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING HAS PASSED TO THE SOUTH OF MOST OF THE PITTSBURGH
AREA...WITH ARCTIC AIR RAPIDLY BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. THIS IS
EVIDENCED BY DEWPOINTS FALLING RAPIDLY TOWARD 5F ACROSS AND NORTH
OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. LIKEWISE...LOW CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO BECOME
SCOURED OUT AT A FAIRLY RAPID CLIP...AND INFRARED FOG PRODUCT
11-3.9 MICRO IMAGERY IS INDICATING A RAPID EROSION OF ALL STRATUS
NORTH OF I-80 AT THIS HOUR. DRIER AIR WILL ADVANCE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE TO BREAKUP AND TEMPERATURES TO GO INTO FREE FALL. DUE TO
A MUCH LONGER CLEAR/CLEARING PERIOD TO THE NORTH...LOWS WILL
LIKELY CHALLENGE ZERO...HOWEVER EVEN ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH...TEMPERATURES AROUND 10F SEEM PLAUSIBLE.

AHEAD OF THE DRIER AIR...A FEW MORE HOURS OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
SEEM LIKELY FOR THE RIDGES...PARTICULARLY IN WEST VIRGINIA AND
MARYLAND. TRAFFIC CAMS IN BOTH STATES STILL INDICATE FALLING SNOW
AND LESS THAN IDEAL CONDITIONS...SO THE ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE
GIVEN FAVORABLE DENDRITIC ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH HABIT...LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY...AND GOOD OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT TO THE LIFT.
HOWEVER...EVEN IN THE RIDGES...DRY AIR WILL DETERIORATE BOUNDARY
LAYER SATURATION AFTER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN BY MORNING. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY HIGHS WERE LIMITED TO ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS
WITH SFC HIGH PRES SLIDING ACRS THE UPR OH REGION. SHRTWV RIDGING
WL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT STRENGTHENING
WARM ADVCTN IN ADVN OF TROUGH DIGGING RAPIDLY TWD THE WRN LAKES WL
IMPROVE THE THURSDAY MRNG LOWS.

THE NAM...GFS...ECMWF FORECASTED CENTER TRACK OF THAT SYSTEM RMNS
N OF THE REGION...HENCE CONTD WARM ADVCTN ON THE ERN FLANK IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THE
SCENARIO WL FAVOR A WINTRY MIX COMPLICATED BY COLD SURFACES
LEFTOVER OVR FM THE PREVIOUS TWO NGTS.

ANY PCPN THAT DOES TURN TO RAIN WL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
FREEZE ON CONTACT. IN ADDITION...THE DRY LAYER WHICH IS PROGGED TO
LIMIT PCPN ONSET IN THE MRNG MAY OFFSET A WEAKER WARM ADVCTN
REGIME VIA WET BULBING. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT FORECAST WL FEATURE A
WINTRY MIX WITH A CHANGE TO SNOW WITH PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEMS COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY EVENING. A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS ALSO
INCLUDED FOR THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL. QPF WAS COMPLETED USING
WPC GUIDANCE TRIMMED FOR LOCAL POP TRENDS WITH SNOW TOTALS
ADJUSTED FOR SFC TEMP EXPECTATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COLD TEMPS WL AGAIN VISIT THE REGION.
DEPTH OF COLD AT MOMENT LKS SUFFICIENT TO SPPRT SNOW SHWRS...SO
LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED OVR THE RIDGES PAST DAYBREAK DESPITE
DRY ADVCTN AND LACK OF ANY REINFORCING LAKE ERIE MSTR DUE TO ICE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO WANE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS
DRIER AIR ARRIVES TO CHOKE OFF THE MOISTURE. EXPECTING MVFR
CIGS/VSBY TO CONTINUE IN THE LIGHT SNOW BEFORE FINALLY TAPERING
OFF LAST NEAR KMGW/KLBE AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
SCATTER OUT AS THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. ALREADY
BEGINNING TO SEE THIS IN DUJ WHERE THE LLVL MOISTURE EVACUATED
LEAVING A MID-DECK LINGERING. CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR MOST
TERMINALS BY ABOUT DAYBREAK WEDS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME SCT LOW
CLOUDS COULD REMAIN NEAR KMGW. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDS AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074-
     076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ023-
     041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280127
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
827 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND DECREASE CLOUDS TONIGHT. A COLD
WEDNESDAY WILL FOLLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE DEFORMATION ZONE THAT HAS SLOWLY SAGGED THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING HAS PASSED TO THE SOUTH OF MOST OF THE PITTSBURGH
AREA...WITH ARCTIC AIR RAPIDLY BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. THIS IS
EVIDENCED BY DEWPOINTS FALLING RAPIDLY TOWARD 5F ACROSS AND NORTH
OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. LIKEWISE...LOW CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO BECOME
SCOURED OUT AT A FAIRLY RAPID CLIP...AND INFRARED FOG PRODUCT
11-3.9 MICRO IMAGERY IS INDICATING A RAPID EROSION OF ALL STRATUS
NORTH OF I-80 AT THIS HOUR. DRIER AIR WILL ADVANCE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE TO BREAKUP AND TEMPERATURES TO GO INTO FREE FALL. DUE TO
A MUCH LONGER CLEAR/CLEARING PERIOD TO THE NORTH...LOWS WILL
LIKELY CHALLENGE ZERO...HOWEVER EVEN ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH...TEMPERATURES AROUND 10F SEEM PLAUSIBLE.

AHEAD OF THE DRIER AIR...A FEW MORE HOURS OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
SEEM LIKELY FOR THE RIDGES...PARTICULARLY IN WEST VIRGINIA AND
MARYLAND. TRAFFIC CAMS IN BOTH STATES STILL INDICATE FALLING SNOW
AND LESS THAN IDEAL CONDITIONS...SO THE ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE
GIVEN FAVORABLE DENDRITIC ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH HABIT...LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY...AND GOOD OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT TO THE LIFT.
HOWEVER...EVEN IN THE RIDGES...DRY AIR WILL DETERIORATE BOUNDARY
LAYER SATURATION AFTER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN BY MORNING. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY HIGHS WERE LIMITED TO ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS
WITH SFC HIGH PRES SLIDING ACRS THE UPR OH REGION. SHRTWV RIDGING
WL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT STRENGTHENING
WARM ADVCTN IN ADVN OF TROUGH DIGGING RAPIDLY TWD THE WRN LAKES WL
IMPROVE THE THURSDAY MRNG LOWS.

THE NAM...GFS...ECMWF FORECASTED CENTER TRACK OF THAT SYSTEM RMNS
N OF THE REGION...HENCE CONTD WARM ADVCTN ON THE ERN FLANK IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THE
SCENARIO WL FAVOR A WINTRY MIX COMPLICATED BY COLD SURFACES
LEFTOVER OVR FM THE PREVIOUS TWO NGTS.

ANY PCPN THAT DOES TURN TO RAIN WL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
FREEZE ON CONTACT. IN ADDITION...THE DRY LAYER WHICH IS PROGGED TO
LIMIT PCPN ONSET IN THE MRNG MAY OFFSET A WEAKER WARM ADVCTN
REGIME VIA WET BULBING. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT FORECAST WL FEATURE A
WINTRY MIX WITH A CHANGE TO SNOW WITH PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEMS COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY EVENING. A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS ALSO
INCLUDED FOR THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL. QPF WAS COMPLETED USING
WPC GUIDANCE TRIMMED FOR LOCAL POP TRENDS WITH SNOW TOTALS
ADJUSTED FOR SFC TEMP EXPECTATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COLD TEMPS WL AGAIN VISIT THE REGION.
DEPTH OF COLD AT MOMENT LKS SUFFICIENT TO SPPRT SNOW SHWRS...SO
LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED OVR THE RIDGES PAST DAYBREAK DESPITE
DRY ADVCTN AND LACK OF ANY REINFORCING LAKE ERIE MSTR DUE TO ICE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO WANE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS
DRIER AIR ARRIVES TO CHOKE OFF THE MOISTURE. EXPECTING MVFR
CIGS/VSBY TO CONTINUE IN THE LIGHT SNOW BEFORE FINALLY TAPERING
OFF LAST NEAR KMGW/KLBE AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
SCATTER OUT AS THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. ALREADY
BEGINNING TO SEE THIS IN DUJ WHERE THE LLVL MOISTURE EVACUATED
LEAVING A MID-DECK LINGERING. CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR MOST
TERMINALS BY ABOUT DAYBREAK WEDS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME SCT LOW
CLOUDS COULD REMAIN NEAR KMGW. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDS AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074-
     076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ023-
     041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280041
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
741 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS
EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~981 MB LO PRES JUST E OF CAPE COD
WITH ~1024 MB HI PRES CENTERED OVER WISCONSIN. THE LO WILL ADVANCE
NEWRD TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME THEN CANADIAN MARITIMES TNGT AS THE
HI MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY. WITH THE MID ATLANTIC BETWEEN THESE
TWO FEATURES...NW FLOW CONTINUES TNGT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FLURRY FOR SOME AREAS THIS EVENG BUT THIS SHOULD
BE ISOLTD. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BLO NORMAL FOR LATE
JAN...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LO TO MID 20S. WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS EVERYWHERE...WITH UPR SINGLE DIGITS PSBL
OVER THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDS WITH CONTINUED BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. FOR WED/WED NIGHT...STRONG SFC HI PRES BLDS E FM THE
OH VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED UPR-
LEVEL TROF PULLS OFFSHORE. EXPECT A MSTLY SUNNY-MSTLY CLEAR SKY
WITH SLOWLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS. HIGHS WED RANGE FM THE MID 30S
OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR 30S/LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. SIMILAR
LOWS WED NIGHT AS TNGT...LO TO MID 20S...BUT WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LO DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS.

SLY FLOW RETURNS THU AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE
REGION THU NIGHT. DESPITE DECENT FORCING...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
A BIT SO WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN 20-30% POPS ATTM WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OVER NRN AREAS. PTYPE IS RA THU AFTN/EVENG TRANSITIONING TO
A RA/SN MIX OVRNGT. ANY PCPN WILL BE LIGHT. HI PRES THEN SLOWLY
BLDS IN FM THE W FRI LEADING TO DRY CONDS...DECREASING
CLOUDS...AND HI TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NRN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS PREVAILING. TROUGH EXITS THE COAST FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY SAT. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE AROUND
-10C (-1 STD DEV). THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW WITH
PUSHING THE SFC HIGH OFFSHORE SUN AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO LIFT
FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS SUN...AND
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT. TRAILING COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS
THE REGION SUN NIGHT. DEEP H85 TROUGH EXPECTED TO ADVECT MOISTURE
NWD FROM THE ERN GULF INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT...WIDESPREAD
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA LATE SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS INTO THE LOW-MID 40S (POSSIBLY
WARMER) SUN...WITH THE COLDEST AIR REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE PREDOMINATELY RAIN...BUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW
MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET AS WAA KICKS IN. HOWEVER...NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALL RAIN LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH A
POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER ACROSS THE NRN ZONES LATE SAT NIGHT AS COLD AIR
PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WLY PUSH BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN
DRYING CONDITIONS MON-TUES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NW. BY TUES...TEMPS FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER
30S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND CENTERS OVER VA. NW WINDS GUSTING TO ~15KT
WILL PREVAIL WED DUE TO THE CONTINUED TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.

A WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU
NIGHT/EARLY FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS REMAINS STRONG BTWN LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY/MIDWEST. THE
RESULT IS ONGOING SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS. NW GUSTS UP TO 25
KT OVER THE BAY AND 30 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OBSERVED THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD ALONG THE NE
COAST AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL CAA IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT TO GO ALONG WITH THE ALREADY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT. HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...INTO THE 20-25
KT RANGE IN THE BAY AND 25 TO 30 KT RANGE IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER...GALE CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WILL BE NORTH OF THE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED...RANGING FROM 6-9 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THRU THE
NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THRU THE DAY WEDS
TO 5-7 FT. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY ARRIVES WEDS NIGHT...WITH WINDS
FINALLY DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THRU
THE NIGHT...FALLING BELOW 5 FT LATE WEDS NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND
SLY FLOW BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE WATERS THURS BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS LATE THURS NIGHT. ANOTHER CAA NW SURGE IS
EXPECTED LATE THURS NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WATERS SAT AND SUN IN
ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE WATERS SUN
NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...SAM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280041
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
741 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS
EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~981 MB LO PRES JUST E OF CAPE COD
WITH ~1024 MB HI PRES CENTERED OVER WISCONSIN. THE LO WILL ADVANCE
NEWRD TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME THEN CANADIAN MARITIMES TNGT AS THE
HI MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY. WITH THE MID ATLANTIC BETWEEN THESE
TWO FEATURES...NW FLOW CONTINUES TNGT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FLURRY FOR SOME AREAS THIS EVENG BUT THIS SHOULD
BE ISOLTD. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BLO NORMAL FOR LATE
JAN...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LO TO MID 20S. WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS EVERYWHERE...WITH UPR SINGLE DIGITS PSBL
OVER THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDS WITH CONTINUED BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. FOR WED/WED NIGHT...STRONG SFC HI PRES BLDS E FM THE
OH VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED UPR-
LEVEL TROF PULLS OFFSHORE. EXPECT A MSTLY SUNNY-MSTLY CLEAR SKY
WITH SLOWLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS. HIGHS WED RANGE FM THE MID 30S
OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR 30S/LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. SIMILAR
LOWS WED NIGHT AS TNGT...LO TO MID 20S...BUT WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LO DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS.

SLY FLOW RETURNS THU AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE
REGION THU NIGHT. DESPITE DECENT FORCING...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
A BIT SO WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN 20-30% POPS ATTM WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OVER NRN AREAS. PTYPE IS RA THU AFTN/EVENG TRANSITIONING TO
A RA/SN MIX OVRNGT. ANY PCPN WILL BE LIGHT. HI PRES THEN SLOWLY
BLDS IN FM THE W FRI LEADING TO DRY CONDS...DECREASING
CLOUDS...AND HI TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NRN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS PREVAILING. TROUGH EXITS THE COAST FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY SAT. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE AROUND
-10C (-1 STD DEV). THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW WITH
PUSHING THE SFC HIGH OFFSHORE SUN AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO LIFT
FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS SUN...AND
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT. TRAILING COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS
THE REGION SUN NIGHT. DEEP H85 TROUGH EXPECTED TO ADVECT MOISTURE
NWD FROM THE ERN GULF INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT...WIDESPREAD
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA LATE SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS INTO THE LOW-MID 40S (POSSIBLY
WARMER) SUN...WITH THE COLDEST AIR REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE PREDOMINATELY RAIN...BUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW
MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET AS WAA KICKS IN. HOWEVER...NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALL RAIN LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH A
POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER ACROSS THE NRN ZONES LATE SAT NIGHT AS COLD AIR
PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WLY PUSH BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN
DRYING CONDITIONS MON-TUES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NW. BY TUES...TEMPS FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER
30S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND CENTERS OVER VA. NW WINDS GUSTING TO ~15KT
WILL PREVAIL WED DUE TO THE CONTINUED TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.

A WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU
NIGHT/EARLY FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS REMAINS STRONG BTWN LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY/MIDWEST. THE
RESULT IS ONGOING SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS. NW GUSTS UP TO 25
KT OVER THE BAY AND 30 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OBSERVED THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD ALONG THE NE
COAST AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL CAA IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT TO GO ALONG WITH THE ALREADY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT. HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...INTO THE 20-25
KT RANGE IN THE BAY AND 25 TO 30 KT RANGE IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER...GALE CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WILL BE NORTH OF THE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED...RANGING FROM 6-9 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THRU THE
NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THRU THE DAY WEDS
TO 5-7 FT. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY ARRIVES WEDS NIGHT...WITH WINDS
FINALLY DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THRU
THE NIGHT...FALLING BELOW 5 FT LATE WEDS NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND
SLY FLOW BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE WATERS THURS BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS LATE THURS NIGHT. ANOTHER CAA NW SURGE IS
EXPECTED LATE THURS NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WATERS SAT AND SUN IN
ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE WATERS SUN
NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...SAM







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 272345
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
645 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND DECREASE CLOUDS TONIGHT. A COLD
WEDNESDAY WILL FOLLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN EXPANDING RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST
HOUR OR SO AS THE LAST DEFORMATION ZONE HAS BEEN SHIFTING WEST AND
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA BACK INTO WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR EXTREMELY EFFICIENT SNOW TO
DEVELOP WITH RATIOS LIKELY IN EXCESS OF 25 TO 1. THIS COUPLED WITH
UNIDIRECTIONAL UPSLOPE FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER INTO THE RIDGES HAS ALLOWED FOR AN INTENSIFYING TREND FOR
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE RIDGES AS WELL. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A 3
KFT SATURATED LAYER ENTIRELY BISECTING THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER
WITH AN UNSTABLE...OROGRAPHIC...AND NOW LARGE SCALE LIFTING
MECHANISM ALL OVERLAYING THE RIDGES FOR THE NEXT ROUGHLY 10 HOURS
OR SO. GIVEN GROUND TRUTH REPORTS FROM GARRETT COUNTY OF NEAR
ADVISORY LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS TODAY ALONG WITH AN INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EVENING...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE HOISTED FOR THE
RIDGES THROUGH 1 AM.

ELSEWHERE...LIGHT SNOW WILL LARGELY BE GENERATED BY THE
SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFTING DEFORMATION ZONE. ACCUMULATIONS OUTSIDE OF
THE OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AREAS WILL LIKELY BE MINIMAL...DUE LARGELY
TO MEAGER QPF...THOUGH THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS THAT COME OUT OF
IT WILL LIKELY BE LARGE. THAT SAID...IT WOULD NOT BE SHOCKING TO
GET AN INCH ANYWHERE IN PARTICULAR GENERALLY FROM STEUBENVILLE
EASTWARD.

OTHERWISE...DRIER ARCTIC AIR WILL START TO ENCROACH FROM THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD WIND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DOWN
BY MORNING...AND ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURE FREE FALL LATE TONIGHT. IT
SEEMS THE SNOW GLOBE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SHAKEN OUTSIDE UNTIL THAT
TIME. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY HIGHS WERE LIMITED TO ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS
WITH SFC HIGH PRES SLIDING ACRS THE UPR OH REGION. SHRTWV RIDGING
WL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT STRENGTHENING
WARM ADVCTN IN ADVN OF TROUGH DIGGING RAPIDLY TWD THE WRN LAKES WL
IMPROVE THE THURSDAY MRNG LOWS.

THE NAM...GFS...ECMWF FORECASTED CENTER TRACK OF THAT SYSTEM RMNS
N OF THE REGION...HENCE CONTD WARM ADVCTN ON THE ERN FLANK IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THE
SCENARIO WL FAVOR A WINTRY MIX COMPLICATED BY COLD SURFACES
LEFTOVER OVR FM THE PREVIOUS TWO NGTS.

ANY PCPN THAT DOES TURN TO RAIN WL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
FREEZE ON CONTACT. IN ADDITION...THE DRY LAYER WHICH IS PROGGED TO
LIMIT PCPN ONSET IN THE MRNG MAY OFFSET A WEAKER WARM ADVCTN
REGIME VIA WET BULBING. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT FORECAST WL FEATURE A
WINTRY MIX WITH A CHANGE TO SNOW WITH PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEMS COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY EVENING. A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS ALSO
INCLUDED FOR THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL. QPF WAS COMPLETED USING
WPC GUIDANCE TRIMMED FOR LOCAL POP TRENDS WITH SNOW TOTALS
ADJUSTED FOR SFC TEMP EXPECTATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COLD TEMPS WL AGAIN VISIT THE REGION.
DEPTH OF COLD AT MOMENT LKS SUFFICIENT TO SPPRT SNOW SHWRS...SO
LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED OVR THE RIDGES PAST DAYBREAK DESPITE
DRY ADVCTN AND LACK OF ANY REINFORCING LAKE ERIE MSTR DUE TO ICE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO WANE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS
DRIER AIR ARRIVES TO CHOKE OFF THE MOISTURE. EXPECTING MVFR
CIGS/VSBY TO CONTINUE IN THE LIGHT SNOW BEFORE FINALLY TAPERING
OFF LAST NEAR KMGW/KLBE AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
SCATTER OUT AS THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. ALREADY
BEGINNING TO SEE THIS IN DUJ WHERE THE LLVL MOISTURE EVACUATED
LEAVING A MID-DECK LINGERING. CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR MOST
TERMINALS BY ABOUT DAYBREAK WEDS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME SCT LOW
CLOUDS COULD REMAIN NEAR KMGW. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDS AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074-
     076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ023-
     041.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 272345
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
645 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND DECREASE CLOUDS TONIGHT. A COLD
WEDNESDAY WILL FOLLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN EXPANDING RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST
HOUR OR SO AS THE LAST DEFORMATION ZONE HAS BEEN SHIFTING WEST AND
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA BACK INTO WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR EXTREMELY EFFICIENT SNOW TO
DEVELOP WITH RATIOS LIKELY IN EXCESS OF 25 TO 1. THIS COUPLED WITH
UNIDIRECTIONAL UPSLOPE FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER INTO THE RIDGES HAS ALLOWED FOR AN INTENSIFYING TREND FOR
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE RIDGES AS WELL. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A 3
KFT SATURATED LAYER ENTIRELY BISECTING THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER
WITH AN UNSTABLE...OROGRAPHIC...AND NOW LARGE SCALE LIFTING
MECHANISM ALL OVERLAYING THE RIDGES FOR THE NEXT ROUGHLY 10 HOURS
OR SO. GIVEN GROUND TRUTH REPORTS FROM GARRETT COUNTY OF NEAR
ADVISORY LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS TODAY ALONG WITH AN INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EVENING...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE HOISTED FOR THE
RIDGES THROUGH 1 AM.

ELSEWHERE...LIGHT SNOW WILL LARGELY BE GENERATED BY THE
SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFTING DEFORMATION ZONE. ACCUMULATIONS OUTSIDE OF
THE OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AREAS WILL LIKELY BE MINIMAL...DUE LARGELY
TO MEAGER QPF...THOUGH THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS THAT COME OUT OF
IT WILL LIKELY BE LARGE. THAT SAID...IT WOULD NOT BE SHOCKING TO
GET AN INCH ANYWHERE IN PARTICULAR GENERALLY FROM STEUBENVILLE
EASTWARD.

OTHERWISE...DRIER ARCTIC AIR WILL START TO ENCROACH FROM THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD WIND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DOWN
BY MORNING...AND ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURE FREE FALL LATE TONIGHT. IT
SEEMS THE SNOW GLOBE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SHAKEN OUTSIDE UNTIL THAT
TIME. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY HIGHS WERE LIMITED TO ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS
WITH SFC HIGH PRES SLIDING ACRS THE UPR OH REGION. SHRTWV RIDGING
WL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT STRENGTHENING
WARM ADVCTN IN ADVN OF TROUGH DIGGING RAPIDLY TWD THE WRN LAKES WL
IMPROVE THE THURSDAY MRNG LOWS.

THE NAM...GFS...ECMWF FORECASTED CENTER TRACK OF THAT SYSTEM RMNS
N OF THE REGION...HENCE CONTD WARM ADVCTN ON THE ERN FLANK IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THE
SCENARIO WL FAVOR A WINTRY MIX COMPLICATED BY COLD SURFACES
LEFTOVER OVR FM THE PREVIOUS TWO NGTS.

ANY PCPN THAT DOES TURN TO RAIN WL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
FREEZE ON CONTACT. IN ADDITION...THE DRY LAYER WHICH IS PROGGED TO
LIMIT PCPN ONSET IN THE MRNG MAY OFFSET A WEAKER WARM ADVCTN
REGIME VIA WET BULBING. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT FORECAST WL FEATURE A
WINTRY MIX WITH A CHANGE TO SNOW WITH PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEMS COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY EVENING. A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS ALSO
INCLUDED FOR THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL. QPF WAS COMPLETED USING
WPC GUIDANCE TRIMMED FOR LOCAL POP TRENDS WITH SNOW TOTALS
ADJUSTED FOR SFC TEMP EXPECTATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COLD TEMPS WL AGAIN VISIT THE REGION.
DEPTH OF COLD AT MOMENT LKS SUFFICIENT TO SPPRT SNOW SHWRS...SO
LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED OVR THE RIDGES PAST DAYBREAK DESPITE
DRY ADVCTN AND LACK OF ANY REINFORCING LAKE ERIE MSTR DUE TO ICE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO WANE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS
DRIER AIR ARRIVES TO CHOKE OFF THE MOISTURE. EXPECTING MVFR
CIGS/VSBY TO CONTINUE IN THE LIGHT SNOW BEFORE FINALLY TAPERING
OFF LAST NEAR KMGW/KLBE AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
SCATTER OUT AS THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. ALREADY
BEGINNING TO SEE THIS IN DUJ WHERE THE LLVL MOISTURE EVACUATED
LEAVING A MID-DECK LINGERING. CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR MOST
TERMINALS BY ABOUT DAYBREAK WEDS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME SCT LOW
CLOUDS COULD REMAIN NEAR KMGW. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDS AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074-
     076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ023-
     041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KLWX 272225
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
525 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY...THEN PASS ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY AND REMAINS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES REGION
LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HAVING RECEIVED A REPORT OF 1.75 INCHES OF NEW SNOW TODAY IN MT
STORM AND 3 INCHES FARTHER WEST IN OAKLAND...ISSUED A WINTER WX
ADVISORY FOR THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS OF WV/MD UNTIL 1 AM.
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE UPSLOPE SNOW LATER
TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

EVEN THOUGH THE INTENSE SFC COASTAL LOW IS NOW OVER 500 MILES TO
THE NE OF OUR AREA...THE LARGER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM STILL EXTENDS
BACK TO THE ERN EDGE OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. ALONG THIS EDGE REMAINS
A RELATIVELY LONG/NARROW BUT WEAK CORRIDOR OF LIFT...PIVOTING AND
SWINGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER NEW
ENGLAND. THIS REGION OF LIFT HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP BATCHES OF
FLURRIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...NAMELY THE BLUE RIDGE AND
SURROUNDING COUNTIES ON EITHER SIDE - UP TO THE NRN SHEN VLY. THIS
FEATURE IS SLOWLY DISSIPATING ACROSS OUR AREA...W/ CLOUDS SHOWING
A FAIRLY STEADY BREAK-UP ACROSS THE REGION.

TEMPS HAVE HAD PLENTY OF TROUBLE INCREASING TODAY...BETWEEN THE
DENSE SUN-BLOCKING LOW STRATUS AND THE DRY/GUSTY NW WINDS. A FEW
LOCALES AROUND THE AREA HAVE FOUND THEIR WAY ABOVE THE FREEZING
MARK BUT W/ A NW WIND IN THE 15-25MPH RANGE...WIND CHILLS HAVE
STAYED WELL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

THIS THEME WILL CARRY OVER INTO THE NIGHTTIME HRS AS ANOTHER ROUND
OF GUSTY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE DISSIPATION OF THE CLOUD COVER.
AMBIENT TEMPS WILL HAVE LITTLE TROUBLE SLIDING WELL INTO THE TEENS
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. ADD TO THAT...WINDS GUSTS IN THE 20-30MPH RANGE
LATE TONIGHT - WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE COMMON.

THE START OF WEDNESDAY WILL BE MET W/ CLEAR SKIES AND STILL
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND DAWN WILL STILL BE
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. ALTHOUGH STILL QUITE COLD...TEMPS
WILL QUICKLY JUMP BACK INTO THE 20S AND L30S BY LATE MRNG. NOT
ENOUGH TIME IN THE DAY HOWEVER TO GET MUCH ABOVE FREEZING...ESPEC
W/ NW WINDS CONTINUING TO GUST IN THE 15-25MPH RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE REGION. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO
THE TEENS AS THE REGION RADIATES OVERNIGHT UNDER CALM AND CLEAR
CONDITIONS. A QUICK TRANSITION WILL OCCUR THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW MOVES INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION ALOFT WITH 850 TEMPS GOING POSITIVE THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A GREAT LAKES CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS ACROSS MOST OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW. DUE TO
SNOWCOVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...TEMPS
NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE SHOULD STAY COLDER AND BARELY REACH
FREEZING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS FURTHER SOUTH WILL REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 30S.

DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION TO
MOVE ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. FCST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A GOOD AMT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AS
THE PRECIP MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO START AS THE COLUMN WETBULBS. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE APPALACHIAN
REGION...LIGHT PRECIP WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC STAYING SNOW NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE AND
RAIN/SNOW FURTHER SOUTH WHERE TEMPS WILL BE WARMER. ALL RAIN IS
EXPECTED SOUTH OF DC INCLUDING THE PIEDMONT...CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND
SOUTHERN MD BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN/SNOW AS THE WAVE OF PRECIP MOVES
EASTWARD.

NOTE FOR AREAS NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE...SATURATION
SHOULD LEAD TO A BELOW FREEZING COLUMN BUT WAA ALOFT MAY LEAD TO
SLEET MIXING IN. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT RANGING FROM 2-3
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES TO 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN MARYLAND. LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH.
HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES ARE POSSIBLE AND AN
ADVISORY MAY BE IN THE FUTURE FOR THIS AREA. ENERGY FROM AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY LEAD TO
FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF HAS A NEG TILT H5 TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS TAPS VERY COLD H85
TEMPS AOB -14 ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SINGLE
DIGITS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND THE TEENS TO THE METRO AREAS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS.  WINDS WILL CONTINUE STRONG ON FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH LOW MIN TEMPS LIKELY PRODUCING ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILLS AT
LEAST WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ALONG WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT SEE H5 HGHT RISES AND A BIT OF MODERATING
TEMPS...AS SUNDAY HAS A DEEPENING LOW APPROACHING THE CWA FROM THE
TN VALLEY.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER BY 6 HOURS...BUT BOTH
MODELS HAVE THE SAME IDEA.  WITH COLD TEMPS IN PLACE...THIS WILL
BRING RAIN OR SNOW LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  MONDAY WILL
SEE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR WITH 12Z ECMWF TEMPS ONCE AGAIN
REACHING AOB -14C BY TUESDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH ANOTHER GOOD CHC
OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.

PER THE EXTENDED MEX GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM...TEMPS WILL BE
GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH SATURDAY AND TUESDAY APPEARING TO BE
THE COLDEST WITH BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL.
SATURDAY HAS THE LEAST CHANCE OF PCPN...AND MON NIGHT/TUE HAVING THE
GREATEST CHC OF PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A NARROW BAND OF FLURRIES CONTINUES TO CENTER ITSELF OVER THE NRN
VA BLUE RIDGE BUT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BEFORE 00Z. WINDS
HOWEVER WILL NOT DISSIPATE IN THE COMING HRS...POTENTIALLY
REACHING A RELATIVE PEAK LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MRNG HRS
AS SKIES CLEAR OUT. STILL BREEZY OUT OF THE NW ON WED BUT CLEAR.

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS. RA/SN IS EXPECTED WHICH MAY REDUCE
VSBYS INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS CONTINUES ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH VFR.
MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE TERMINALS LATE SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER BLAST OF NORTHWEST WINDS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATER TODAY...STAYING THE COURSE
WELL INTO TONIGHT AND ANOTHER PERIOD OF BREEZY CONDITIONS ON WED
AS WELL.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
EVENING AND SCA WILL BE POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS
BY FRIDAY MORNING AND NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO S 20-30 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 45 KTS ON THE WATERS. GALES WILL BE LIKELY FRIDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM...GALES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN
RETURN AGAIN ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ501.
VA...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ501-
     503-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEE/GMS
NEAR TERM...ADS/GMS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...LEE/HAS/GMS
MARINE...LEE/HAS/GMS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 272225
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
525 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY...THEN PASS ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY AND REMAINS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES REGION
LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HAVING RECEIVED A REPORT OF 1.75 INCHES OF NEW SNOW TODAY IN MT
STORM AND 3 INCHES FARTHER WEST IN OAKLAND...ISSUED A WINTER WX
ADVISORY FOR THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS OF WV/MD UNTIL 1 AM.
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE UPSLOPE SNOW LATER
TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

EVEN THOUGH THE INTENSE SFC COASTAL LOW IS NOW OVER 500 MILES TO
THE NE OF OUR AREA...THE LARGER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM STILL EXTENDS
BACK TO THE ERN EDGE OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. ALONG THIS EDGE REMAINS
A RELATIVELY LONG/NARROW BUT WEAK CORRIDOR OF LIFT...PIVOTING AND
SWINGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER NEW
ENGLAND. THIS REGION OF LIFT HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP BATCHES OF
FLURRIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...NAMELY THE BLUE RIDGE AND
SURROUNDING COUNTIES ON EITHER SIDE - UP TO THE NRN SHEN VLY. THIS
FEATURE IS SLOWLY DISSIPATING ACROSS OUR AREA...W/ CLOUDS SHOWING
A FAIRLY STEADY BREAK-UP ACROSS THE REGION.

TEMPS HAVE HAD PLENTY OF TROUBLE INCREASING TODAY...BETWEEN THE
DENSE SUN-BLOCKING LOW STRATUS AND THE DRY/GUSTY NW WINDS. A FEW
LOCALES AROUND THE AREA HAVE FOUND THEIR WAY ABOVE THE FREEZING
MARK BUT W/ A NW WIND IN THE 15-25MPH RANGE...WIND CHILLS HAVE
STAYED WELL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

THIS THEME WILL CARRY OVER INTO THE NIGHTTIME HRS AS ANOTHER ROUND
OF GUSTY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE DISSIPATION OF THE CLOUD COVER.
AMBIENT TEMPS WILL HAVE LITTLE TROUBLE SLIDING WELL INTO THE TEENS
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. ADD TO THAT...WINDS GUSTS IN THE 20-30MPH RANGE
LATE TONIGHT - WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE COMMON.

THE START OF WEDNESDAY WILL BE MET W/ CLEAR SKIES AND STILL
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND DAWN WILL STILL BE
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. ALTHOUGH STILL QUITE COLD...TEMPS
WILL QUICKLY JUMP BACK INTO THE 20S AND L30S BY LATE MRNG. NOT
ENOUGH TIME IN THE DAY HOWEVER TO GET MUCH ABOVE FREEZING...E