Home > Products > State Listing > Maryland Data
Latest:
 AFDPBZ |  AFDLWX |  AFDPHI |  AFDAKQ |
  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPHI 231101
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
701 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT, THEN MOVES INTO THE NOVA SCOTIA
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TOWARD OUR
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. A WARM
FRONT MAY LIFT TO OUR NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, THEN A COLD
FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND THE SURFACE LOW ARE BOTH LOCATED OFFSHORE.
THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY.

ANOTHER RAW AND COLD FALL DAY IS IN STORE FOR OUR AREA TODAY.

CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TODAY. THE CLOUDS WILL START TO CLEAR A BIT TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON FROM
THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE LOWS LIFT NORTH. HOWEVER, IT
WILL NOT HELP MUCH TODAY AS WE ARE NOT LIKELY TO SEE THE SUN.

THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS PRETTY TIGHT. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND WILL BE
AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL START TO SUBSIDE TOWARD EVENING.

RAIN IS STARTING TO ROTATE BACK INTO THE REGION AND WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE OFF AND ON SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH A
FEW STEADIER SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE.

ANOTHER COLD DAY ON TAP AS WE DON`T SEE MUCH SUN AND WITH THE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS IT WILL BE HARD TO GET TEMPERATURES TO RISE ALL THAT
MUCH. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE 50S TODAY WITH SOME 40S
ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
SKIES WILL START TO BECOME LESS CLOUDY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA, AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER
LOWS MAKE THEIR WAY TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

ALL RAIN SHOULD HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE REGION AND WE SHOULD REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE A BIT TONIGHT BUT WILL
NOT GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE, KEEPING A CHILL IN THE AIR.

LOWS WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 40S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING AWAY AND WEAKENING SOME
FRIDAY. THIS WILL TAKE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WITH IT AS IT TRACKS
NEAR NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DRIVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, A BUILDING RIDGE OCCURS ACROSS THE PLAINS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL FORCE ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
DOWN INTO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER AS IT CLOSES OFF
IT LOOKS TO BE CENTERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT TIED TO
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THEN ARRIVES IN THE EAST DURING
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, HOWEVER WITH THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN THE
NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRIVING EASTWARD LATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. A RETURN FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD SEND A WARM
FRONT TO OUR NORTH, THEN A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER WEDNESDAY. WE
USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN BLENDED THE 00Z
WPC GUIDANCE IN WITH CONTINUITY. SOME TWEAKS WERE THEN MADE AFTER
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY...IT APPEARS DRYING WORKS IN AS THE CLOSED LOW AND
SURFACE LOW SHIFT FARTHER TO OUR NORTHEAST, AND THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN A DECREASE IN CLOUDS WITH TIME. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
INITIALLY WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH A DECREASE IS
ANTICIPATED QUICKLY BY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO EXPAND
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS
TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING, HOWEVER A LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN PERHAPS SOME CLOUDS FOR A TIME.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH
SATURDAY, HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD RESULT
IN PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH. ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
IS THEN EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER, HOWEVER THIS IS FORECAST
TO TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INSTEAD OF RIGHT OVER OUR AREA. THE 00Z
NAM/ECMWF SHOW A MORE AMPLIFIED AND SOUTHERLY SOLUTION WITH THE
CLOSING LOW NEAR NEW ENGLAND, WHICH MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING THE
AMPLIFYING RIDGE UPSTREAM. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO
INTENSIFY AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND, WHICH MEANS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A BREEZY
DAY SHOULD OCCUR AS MIXING DEEPENS /STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES/ UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO
BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING WINDS AND CHILLIER
TEMPERATURES.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ARRIVES IN THE EAST
ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
WARMING CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY IN THE WAKE
OF A WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES
WERE MADE FOR THIS TIME FRAME, WITH JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW
00Z WPC GUIDANCE.

FOR WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE SHIFTING TO OUR
EAST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY. A COLD FRONT TIED TO THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE
ARRIVING INTO OUR AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF THE ENERGY MAY
SLIDE TO OUR NORTHWEST, HOWEVER THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BROKEN
BAND OF SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT ITSELF. FOR NOW, WENT WITH
SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT THE TERMINALS. RAIN IS
SPOTTY AND STARTING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS WILL BE ON AGAIN/OFF AGAIN THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT.

CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THIS MORNING BUT WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT AND SHOULD BECOME VFR THIS AFTERNOON AT THE TERMINALS.

THE WINDS ARE OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SUSTAINED
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 12 TO 18 KNOTS WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30
KNOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE GUSTINESS SHOULD START TO SUBSIDE
LATER THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
20 KNOTS, THEN DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR A FEW
SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SOUTHWEST WINDS
SATURDAY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS, SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE WIND SPEEDS SUNDAY INCREASE TO NEAR
15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS, BUT DIMINISH AT NIGHT.

MONDAY...VFR. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6PM ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND
LOWER DELAWARE BAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
UPPER DELAWARE BAY.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40
KNOTS ACROSS THE OCEAN AND LOWER BAY, GUSTS WILL BE CLOSER TO 30
KNOTS ACROSS THE UPPER BAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND IT
LOOKS LIKE WE LOSE THE GALE FORCE GUSTS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A TIME AFTER THE GALES COME
DOWN. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE GRADUALLY TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN THE SEAS SUBSIDING.
THEREFORE, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THIS TIME FRAME.

SATURDAY...THE WINDS WINDS TURN MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT, BUT THEN SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST AT NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE, WITH THE
CONDITIONS BEING JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA UNTIL LATER AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALONG WITH DECENT MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OCCURRING. THIS WILL ALSO BUILD THE SEAS,
HOWEVER WITH THE HIGHEST SETS FARTHER OFFSHORE GIVEN THE WIND FLOW.

MONDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RUNNING HIGH DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE STORM OFF THE
COAST AND THE APPROACHING NEW MOON. HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING WILL BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN YESTERDAYS HIGH TIDE. HOWEVER, WITH A STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING TODAY, WE SHOULD SEE THE WATER START
TO PUSH AWAY FROM THE COAST AS OPPOSED TO PUSHING TOWARDS THE
COAST.

RIGHT NOW THE ONLY FLOODING WE ARE EXPECTING WOULD BE ISOLATED MINOR
FLOODING BELOW OUR ESTABLISHED THRESHOLDS NEEDED FOR AN ADVISORY. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TIDES AND ISSUE AN ADVISORY IF NEEDED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MEOLA







  [top]

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 231027
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
627 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEAST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. DRY COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO AND OVER THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...SFC LO PRES WAS CNTRD OFF THE NEW JERSEY CST.
THE LO WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS NE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND CST TODAY THRU FRI. MEANWHILE...HI PRES WILL GRADUALLY
BLD IN FM THE OH VALLEY. THE PRES GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES TODAY...ALLOWING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE. HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE CST WHERE GUSTS OF
30-35 MPH WILL OCCUR...15-25 MPH ELSEWHERE. WILL MAINTAIN A 20%
POP OVR THE ERN SHR INTO EARLY THIS AFTN...DRY WX ELSEWHERE. STILL
ENOUGH RESIDUAL LO LEVEL MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR THE
SKY TO AVERAGE OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY ENE TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
WSW. HIGHS RANGING FM THE UPR 50S TO ARND 60 ON THE LWR MD ERN
SHR...TO THE UPR 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND S CNTRL VA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR WSW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE TNGT...WITH LOWS
RANGING THRU THE 40S INTO THE LWR 50S. LO PRES CONTINUES TO MOVE
FARTHER NE AND AWAY FM THE LOCAL AREA ON FRI...ALLOWING FOR A
MAINLY SUNNY SKY...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND MILDER TEMPS. HIGHS
ON FRI RANGING FM THE MID 60S NE TO ARND 70 SW. HI PRES REMAINS
IN CONTROL ON SAT WITH DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE
UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY
MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING
OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70 SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 70S BY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER IN THE PERIOD.
22/12Z GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE TRENDED SOMEWHAT WETTER AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
RATHER LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDS OVER REGIONAL TERMINALS THIS MORNING, WITH ONLY SOME
PATCHY MVFR LINGERING ALONG THE COAST IVOF KSBY WITH CIGS ~3KFT.
DEEPENING LOW PRES SYS NOW WELL OF THE NY/NJ COASTLINE...AND WILL
CONT UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD...EVENTUALLY LOCATING OFF THE COAST OF MAINE BY FRIDAY
MORNING. CONDS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY, WITH VFR
CONDS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH FRI MORNING.
PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN COMPRESSED TODAY...RESULTING IN GUSTY
N-NW WINDS TO AROUND 20-25 KT OVER THE EASTERN SHORE INTO THU
AFTN.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE WEST THU NGT AND FRIDAY. VFR CONDS LOOK TO PERSIST FRIDAY
AND THROUGH THW WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFTS NE OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST THIS MORNING...AND WILL LIFT TO A POSITION OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT. LATEST OBS REFLECT N-NW WINDS 20-30KT, WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT. GALES REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND THE MOUTH OF CHES BAY THROUGH THIS AFTN...AND SHOULD BE REPLACED
BY SCA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS AFTN AS PRES GRADIENT BEGINS TO
SLACKEN. EXPECT SUBSEQUENT SCAS WL REMAIN FLYING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTN/EVENING. SEAS HAVE INCREASED TO 8-10 FT OUT NEAR 20NM...4-6FT
SEAS NEARSHORE (3-5FT WAVES IN THE BAY). AS SFC LOW CONTINUES TO
LIFT NE TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA ON FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO
THE WEST OF THE WATERS, ALLOWING SEAS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 5
FT BY FRIDAY AFTN. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF
SCA CONDITIONS LATE SAT NGT/ERY SUN. HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY BUILDS
OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HAVE ADDED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVY FOR THIS MORNING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE
OVER WORCESTER COUNTY. TIDAL DEPARTURES IN VICINITY OF OCEAN CITY
INLET WILL AVERAGE 1.5-2.0 FT ABOVE NORMAL DURING HIGH TIDE AGAIN
THURSDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS OCEAN CITY INLET
EXCEEDING MINOR DURING HIGH TIDE THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE WILL BE A FEW TENTHS HIGHER. WITH A NNW
WIND...THE MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE ALONG THE SHORELINES OF
ASSAWOMAN AND CHINCOTEAUGE BAYS...AND THE ADJACENT OCEAN INLETS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ024-
     025.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>633.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231025
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
625 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST AND DECREASE CLOUDS TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING ADJUSTMENT TO SKY GRIDS AND WINDS. LARGER BREAKS ON
SAT PIX ACROSS EASTERN OHIO TO THE WV PANHANDLE AND HAVE BEGUN THE
CLEARING PROCESS A BIT EARLIER THOSE AREAS. ALSO ADJUSTED WINDS TO
DIMINISH MORE QUICKLY TOWARD SUNSET. PREVIOUS BELOW.


BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS MORNING WITH
CLEARING WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
FARTHER OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE RIDGES UNTIL
LATE DAY. TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WELL INTO THE 30S. REGION HAS PAST DATES
FOR ANY FROST OR FREEZE PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND A BIT MILDER
TEMPERATURES. FOR THE WEEKEND A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL
QUICKLY CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. DRY AND
BREEZY SUNDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING WL ADVN EWD ACRS THE RGN INTO ERLY NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN
THE FCST. MDLS DIFFER ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A MID WK TROF. GENLY
SIDED CLOSE TO A WEAKER ENSEMBLE/WPC SOLN...KEEPING LOW SHWR CHCS
MID WK. WRM ADVCTN IS EXPD TO BRING ABV SEASONAL AVG TEMPS ERLY NXT
WK...WITH A RTN TO SEASONABLY COOL NMBRS AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE MID
WK TROF.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR SC...WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND ISOLD IFR...WL CONT IN N FLOW
ARND E COAST LOW PRES. THE CIGS SHOULD GRDLY ERODE LTR THIS MRNG
INTO ERLY AFTN AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN AS THE LOW DRIFTS
NE...RTNG VFR CONDS TO THE RGN.

.AVIATION /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PTCHY MVFR IN BR IS PSBL ERLY FRI MRNG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230944
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
544 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST AND DECREASE CLOUDS TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING ADJUSTMENT TO SKY GRIDS AND WINDS. LARGER BREAKS ON
SAT PIX ACROSS EASTERN OHIO TO THE WV PANHANDLE AND HAVE BEGUN THE
CLEARING PROCESS A BIT EARLIER THOSE AREAS. ALSO ADJUSTED WINDS TO
DIMINISH MORE QUICKLY TOWARD SUNSET. PREVIOUS BELOW.


BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS MORNING WITH
CLEARING WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
FARTHER OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE RIDGES UNTIL
LATE DAY. TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WELL INTO THE 30S. REGION HAS PAST DATES
FOR ANY FROST OR FREEZE PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND A BIT MILDER
TEMPERATURES. FOR THE WEEKEND A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL
QUICKLY CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. DRY AND
BREEZY SUNDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING WL ADVN EWD ACRS THE RGN INTO ERLY NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN
THE FCST. MDLS DIFFER ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A MID WK TROF. GENLY
SIDED CLOSE TO A WEAKER ENSEMBLE/WPC SOLN...KEEPING LOW SHWR CHCS
MID WK. WRM ADVCTN IS EXPD TO BRING ABV SEASONAL AVG TEMPS ERLY NXT
WK...WITH A RTN TO SEASONABLY COOL NMBRS AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE MID
WK TROF.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR SC...WITH AREAS OF MVFR SC...WL CONT IN N FLOW ARND E COAST LOW
PRES. THE CIGS SHOULD GRDLY ERODE LTR THIS MRNG AS DRIER AIR BEGINS
TO MOVE IN AS THE LOW DRIFTS NE...RTNG VFR CONDS TO THE RGN.

.AVIATION /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230944
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
544 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST AND DECREASE CLOUDS TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING ADJUSTMENT TO SKY GRIDS AND WINDS. LARGER BREAKS ON
SAT PIX ACROSS EASTERN OHIO TO THE WV PANHANDLE AND HAVE BEGUN THE
CLEARING PROCESS A BIT EARLIER THOSE AREAS. ALSO ADJUSTED WINDS TO
DIMINISH MORE QUICKLY TOWARD SUNSET. PREVIOUS BELOW.


BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS MORNING WITH
CLEARING WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
FARTHER OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE RIDGES UNTIL
LATE DAY. TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WELL INTO THE 30S. REGION HAS PAST DATES
FOR ANY FROST OR FREEZE PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND A BIT MILDER
TEMPERATURES. FOR THE WEEKEND A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL
QUICKLY CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. DRY AND
BREEZY SUNDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING WL ADVN EWD ACRS THE RGN INTO ERLY NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN
THE FCST. MDLS DIFFER ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A MID WK TROF. GENLY
SIDED CLOSE TO A WEAKER ENSEMBLE/WPC SOLN...KEEPING LOW SHWR CHCS
MID WK. WRM ADVCTN IS EXPD TO BRING ABV SEASONAL AVG TEMPS ERLY NXT
WK...WITH A RTN TO SEASONABLY COOL NMBRS AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE MID
WK TROF.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR SC...WITH AREAS OF MVFR SC...WL CONT IN N FLOW ARND E COAST LOW
PRES. THE CIGS SHOULD GRDLY ERODE LTR THIS MRNG AS DRIER AIR BEGINS
TO MOVE IN AS THE LOW DRIFTS NE...RTNG VFR CONDS TO THE RGN.

.AVIATION /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPHI 230756
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
356 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT, THEN MOVES INTO THE NOVA SCOTIA
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TOWARD OUR
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. A WARM
FRONT MAY LIFT TO OUR NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, THEN A COLD
FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND THE SURFACE LOW ARE BOTH LOCATED OFFSHORE.
THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY.

ANOTHER RAW AND COLD FALL DAY IS IN STORE FOR OUR AREA TODAY.

CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TODAY. THE CLOUDS WILL START TO CLEAR A BIT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO
THE NORTHEAST AS THE LOWS LIFT NORTH. HOWEVER, IT WILL NOT HELP MUCH
TODAY AS WE ARE NOT LIKELY TO SEE THE SUN.

THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS PRETTY TIGHT. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND WILL BE
AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL START TO SUBSIDE TOWARD EVENING.

RAIN HAS LARGELY ENDED AS A DRY SLOT, ROTATING AROUND THE COASTAL
LOW, HAS ENTERED OUR AREA. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE
REGION THROUGH TODAY BUT SHOULD MOSTLY END BY THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY
LIGHT RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH A FEW STEADIER SHOWERS REMAIN
POSSIBLE.

ANOTHER COLD DAY ON TAP AS WE DON`T SEE MUCH SUN AND WITH THE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS IT WILL BE HARD TO GET TEMPERATURES TO RISE ALL THAT
MUCH. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE 50S TODAY WITH SOME 40S
ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
SKIES WILL START TO BECOME LESS CLOUDY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA, AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER
LOWS MAKE THEIR WAY TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

ALL RAIN SHOULD HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE REGION AND WE SHOULD REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE A BIT TONIGHT BUT WILL
NOT GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE, KEEPING A CHILL IN THE AIR.

LOWS WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 40S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING AWAY AND WEAKENING SOME
FRIDAY. THIS WILL TAKE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WITH IT AS IT TRACKS
NEAR NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DRIVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, A BUILDING RIDGE OCCURS ACROSS THE PLAINS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL FORCE ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
DOWN INTO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER AS IT CLOSES OFF
IT LOOKS TO BE CENTERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT TIED TO
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THEN ARRIVES IN THE EAST DURING
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, HOWEVER WITH THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN THE
NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRIVING EASTWARD LATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. A RETURN FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD SEND A WARM
FRONT TO OUR NORTH, THEN A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER WEDNESDAY. WE
USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN BLENDED THE 00Z
WPC GUIDANCE IN WITH CONTINUITY. SOME TWEAKS WERE THEN MADE AFTER
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY...IT APPEARS DRYING WORKS IN AS THE CLOSED LOW AND
SURFACE LOW SHIFT FARTHER TO OUR NORTHEAST, AND THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN A DECREASE IN CLOUDS WITH TIME. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
INITIALLY WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH A DECREASE IS
ANTICIPATED QUICKLY BY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO EXPAND
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS
TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING, HOWEVER A LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN PERHAPS SOME CLOUDS FOR A TIME.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH
SATURDAY, HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD RESULT
IN PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH. ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
IS THEN EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER, HOWEVER THIS IS FORECAST
TO TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INSTEAD OF RIGHT OVER OUR AREA. THE 00Z
NAM/ECMWF SHOW A MORE AMPLIFIED AND SOUTHERLY SOLUTION WITH THE
CLOSING LOW NEAR NEW ENGLAND, WHICH MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING THE
AMPLIFYING RIDGE UPSTREAM. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO
INTENSIFY AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND, WHICH MEANS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A BREEZY
DAY SHOULD OCCUR AS MIXING DEEPENS /STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES/ UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO
BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING WINDS AND CHILLIER
TEMPERATURES.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ARRIVES IN THE EAST
ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
WARMING CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY IN THE WAKE
OF A WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES
WERE MADE FOR THIS TIME FRAME, WITH JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW
00Z WPC GUIDANCE.

FOR WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE SHIFTING TO OUR
EAST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY. A COLD FRONT TIED TO THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE
ARRIVING INTO OUR AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF THE ENERGY MAY
SLIDE TO OUR NORTHWEST, HOWEVER THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BROKEN
BAND OF SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT ITSELF. FOR NOW, WENT WITH
SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT THE TERMINALS. RAIN IS
FAIRLY LIGHT AT THIS TIME AS A DRY SLOT HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION.
THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THIS
MORNING, ENDING BY THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT.

CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THIS MORNING BUT WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT AND SHOULD BECOME VFR BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AT THE
TERMINALS.

THE WINDS ARE OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SUSTAINED
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 12 TO 18 KNOTS WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30
KNOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE GUSTINESS SHOULD START TO SUBSIDE
LATER THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
20 KNOTS, THEN DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR A FEW
SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SOUTHWEST WINDS
SATURDAY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS, SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE WIND SPEEDS SUNDAY INCREASE TO NEAR
15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS, BUT DIMINISH AT NIGHT.

MONDAY...VFR. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6PM ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND
LOWER DELAWARE BAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
UPPER DELAWARE BAY.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40
KNOTS ACROSS THE OCEAN AND LOWER BAY, GUSTS WILL BE CLOSER TO 30
KNOTS ACROSS THE UPPER BAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND IT
LOOKS LIKE WE LOSE THE GALE FORCE GUSTS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A TIME AFTER THE GALES COME
DOWN. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE GRADUALLY TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN THE SEAS SUBSIDING.
THEREFORE, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THIS TIME FRAME.

SATURDAY...THE WINDS WINDS TURN MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT, BUT THEN SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST AT NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE, WITH THE
CONDITIONS BEING JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA UNTIL LATER AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALONG WITH DECENT MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OCCURRING. THIS WILL ALSO BUILD THE SEAS,
HOWEVER WITH THE HIGHEST SETS FARTHER OFFSHORE GIVEN THE WIND FLOW.

MONDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RUNNING HIGH DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE STORM OFF THE
COAST AND THE APPROACHING NEW MOON. HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING WILL BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN YESTERDAYS HIGH TIDE. HOWEVER, WITH A STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING TODAY, WE SHOULD SEE THE WATER START
TO PUSH AWAY FROM THE COAST AS OPPOSED TO PUSHING TOWARDS THE
COAST.

RIGHT NOW THE ONLY FLOODING WE ARE EXPECTING WOULD BE ISOLATED MINOR
FLOODING BELOW OUR ESTABLISHED THRESHOLDS NEEDED FOR AN ADVISORY. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TIDES AND ISSUE AN ADVISORY IF NEEDED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MEOLA





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230746
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
346 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEAST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. DRY COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO AND OVER THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...SFC LO PRES WAS CNTRD OFF THE NEW JERSEY CST.
THE LO WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS NE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND CST TODAY THRU FRI. MEANWHILE...HI PRES WILL GRADUALLY
BLD IN FM THE OH VALLEY. THE PRES GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES TODAY...ALLOWING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE. HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE CST WHERE GUSTS OF
30-35 MPH WILL OCCUR...15-25 MPH ELSEWHERE. WILL MAINTAIN A 20%
POP OVR THE ERN SHR INTO EARLY THIS AFTN...DRY WX ELSEWHERE. STILL
ENOUGH RESIDUAL LO LEVEL MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR THE
SKY TO AVERAGE OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY ENE TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
WSW. HIGHS RANGING FM THE UPR 50S TO ARND 60 ON THE LWR MD ERN
SHR...TO THE UPR 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND S CNTRL VA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR WSW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE TNGT...WITH LOWS
RANGING THRU THE 40S INTO THE LWR 50S. LO PRES CONTINUES TO MOVE
FARTHER NE AND AWAY FM THE LOCAL AREA ON FRI...ALLOWING FOR A
MAINLY SUNNY SKY...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND MILDER TEMPS. HIGHS
ON FRI RANGING FM THE MID 60S NE TO ARND 70 SW. HI PRES REMAINS
IN CONTROL ON SAT WITH DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE
UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY
MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING
OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70 SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 70S BY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER IN THE PERIOD.
22/12Z GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE TRENDED SOMEWHAT WETTER AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
RATHER LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDS OVER REGIONAL TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH AREAS
OF MVFR LINGERING ALONG THE COAST WITH CIGS ~3KFT. DEEPENING LOW
PRES SYS NOW WELL OF THE NY/NJ COAST.LINE...AND WILL CONT UP THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...EVENTUALLY
LOCATING OFF THE COAST OF MAINE BY FRI MORNING. CONDS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY, WITH VFR CONDS TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH FRI MORNING. PRES GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN COMPRESSED TODAY...RESULTING IN GUSTY N-NW WINDS TO AROUND
20-25 KT OVER THE EASTERN SHORE INTO THU AFTN.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE WEST THU NGT AND FRIDAY. VFR CONDS LOOK TO PERSIST FRIDAY
AND THROUGH THW WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFTS NE OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST THIS MORNING...AND WILL LIFT TO A POSITION OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT. LATEST OBS REFLECT N-NW WINDS 20-30KT, WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT. GALES REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND THE MOUTH OF CHES BAY THROUGH THIS AFTN...AND SHOULD BE REPLACED
BY SCA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS AFTN AS PRES GRADIENT BEGINS TO
SLACKEN. EXPECT SUBSEQUENT SCAS WL REMAIN FLYING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTN/EVENING. SEAS HAVE INCREASED TO 8-10 FT OUT NEAR 20NM...4-6FT
SEAS NEARSHORE (3-5FT WAVES IN THE BAY). AS SFC LOW CONTINUES TO
LIFT NE TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA ON FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO
THE WEST OF THE WATERS, ALLOWING SEAS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 5
FT BY FRIDAY AFTN. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF
SCA CONDITIONS LATE SAT NGT/ERY SUN. HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY BUILDS
OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HAVE ADDED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVY FOR THIS MORNING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE
OVER WORCESTER COUNTY. TIDAL DEPARTURES IN VICINITY OF OCEAN CITY
INLET WILL AVERAGE 1.5-2.0 FT ABOVE NORMAL DURING HIGH TIDE AGAIN
THURSDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS OCEAN CITY INLET
EXCEEDING MINOR DURING HIGH TIDE THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE WILL BE A FEW TENTHS HIGHER. WITH A NNW
WIND...THE MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE ALONG THE SHORELINES OF
ASSAWOMAN AND CHINCOTEAUGE BAYS...AND THE ADJACENT OCEAN INLETS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ024-
     025.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>633.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MAM






  [top]

000
FXUS61 KLWX 230745
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
345 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE DELMARVA WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST OF LONG
ISLAND TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND
REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

AFTR THE CLOUDY/RAINY WX OF THE PAST 2 DAYS TDA WL BE A DAY OF
TRANSITION...WHICH LOOKS TO BE LEADING INTO SOME VERY NICE WX THIS WKND.

VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRES PRSNTLY 330 MILES E OF DC CONTS TO
SPIN LGT RA INTO NJ/DE BUT THIS HAS BEEN DIMINISHING AS IT TRACKS
SWRD TOWARDS MD. WHAT IS LEFT AS IT MOVES INTO THE NERN PART OF
OUR FCST AREA IS LOW CLDS. THIS WL LKLY CONT IN THE BALT AREA FOR
MUCH OF THE DAYLGT HRS.

THE PRES DIFFERENCE BTWN THE LOW AND HIGH BLDG INTO OH/IN WL
RESULT IN A BRZY DAY ACROSS THE AREA. NWRLY WINDS WL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPS DOWN TDA. WARMEST AREA SHOULD BE THE CENTRAL SHEN VLLY.
HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FM THE M60S NEAR CHO TO THE U50S ALONG THE M-D
LN AND IN THE HIGHLANDS.

TIME OF PARTIAL ECLIPSE - 5:50 TO 6;15 PM. APPROX 1/4 OF SUN WL BE
COVERED IN THE SWRN SKY. CLDS SHOULD BE DIMINISHING DURG THIS
TIME. BEST CHCS FOR VIEWING WL MOST LKLY BE IN THE WRN PART OF THE
CWA AND CENTRAL SHEN VLLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGH PRES CONTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TNGT. CLDS SHOULD BE
DIMINISHING DURG THE EVE. WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE OVRNGT. TEMPS
RANGING FM THE M30S IN THE HIGHLANDS TO THE U40S IN THE CITIES.
MAJORITY OF THE AREA SHOULD DROP INTO THE LM40S.

FRI SHOULD BE THE BEGINNING OF SVRL VERY NICE DAYS. HIGH PRES BLDG
OVR THE AREA SHOULD LEAD TO M SUNNY SKIES...LGTR NWRLY WINDS.
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MU60S OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

WHILE THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT AWAY
FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE FRI...ANOTHER EMBEDDED UPPER TROUGH
WILL PASS OVERHEAD INTO EARLY SAT. THIS FEATURE WILL BE DRY...ONLY
BRINGING SOME SCATTERED BATCHES OF LOW-MID CLOUD DECKS OVER THE
AREA. AN STRONG UPPER JET WILL THEN CARRY THE NEXT CLIPPER-FEATURE
DOWN FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES INTO ERN PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND FROM
SAT INTO SUN. GUIDANCE MEMBERS IN THE GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THIS NEXT
WAVE AND THE LACK OF PRECIP EXPECTED TO AFFECT OUR AREA.

ALL THE WHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HANG ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH AND COVER MUCH OF THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL KEEP MODERATED AND
NEAR-AVG CONDITIONS FOR OUR REGION TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK AND
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE FORECAST
OVER THE MED RANGE WILL BE SUNDAY...W/ THE APPEARANCE OF THE BACK
END OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MAKE A SUBSIDENCE SWIPE ACROSS THE
REGION AND MIX-DOWN SOME OF GUSTY WINDS.

MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED RAIN W/ THIS FEATURE WILL OCCUR WELL TO OUR
NORTH AND/OR DISSIPATE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL PA BEFORE
REACHING THE MASON-DIXON LINE BOTH SAT AND SUN. POPS WERE KEPT OUT
OF THE AREA FOR THE NEAR TERM AND NOT INTRODUCED AGAIN TIL THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD W/ AN EXPECTED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
SOUTHEAST HIGH PRESSURE ZONE WILL ROLL ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND OFF
THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...PUSHED ALONG BY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDING ACROSS THE PLAINS. STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG
TERM MODEL DEPICTION OF THIS FEATURE`S PROGRESSION AND WHETHER IT
WILL BREAK OFF INTO SEPARATE WAVES OF WEAKEN AND LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST BEFORE MAKING MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON THE EAST COAST. LEANED
TOWARD THE EURO W/ THE SRN STREAM PIECE SPLITTING OFF AND EVENTUALLY
SLIDING A WEAKENING AND PRECIP-LIGHT COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA
MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

LOW PRES SPINS OFF THE MID ALTC CST. THIS WL SLOWLY TRACK NNE TDA
BUT CONTS TO PUSH ATLC MOISTURE INTO THE NERN PART OF THE FCST
AREA. THIS IS KEEPING BWI/MTN CIGS AOB 030..AND THIS SHOULD CONT
FOR SVRL MORE HRS B4 RISING INTO VFR RANGE. RMDR OF TAF SITES
SHOULD BE VFR TDA. WINDS WL CONT TO BE GUSTY FM THE NW.

VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF SITES TNGT AND FRI.

A BREEZY AFTN ON SUN BUT NOT OVERLY SO...MAINLY A STEADY 15-25KT NW
BREEZE DURING THE DAYTIME HRS - DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL KEEP THE AREA`S WX QUIET OTHERWISE. THE NEXT WX-FEATURE
EXPECTED TO BE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS GUSTING INTO THE MU20 KT LVL ON MUCH OF THE WATERS ATTM.
PRES GRAD WL CONT ACROSS THE MID ATLC TDA. W/ FURTHER LO LVL
DESTABILIZATION AFTR SUNRISE GALE WRNG IS IN EFFECT ON CHES BAY S
OF SANDY PT. WINDS SHOULD BE DIMINISHING THIS EVE...BUT ONLY TO
SCA LVLS. SCA SHOULD CONT FRI.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LARGELY BUILD OVER THE AREA AND KEEP A QUIET-WX
INFLUENCE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ALTHOUGH...A FAST-MOVING
UPPER WAVE WILL CARRY GUSTY WINDS ON SUN AFTN/EVE...SCA CONDS
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME...BUT NO OTHER HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ530-531-
     535-536-538>540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538>540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ532>534-537-541-543.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     541-543.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/GMS







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230714
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
314 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST AND DECREASE CLOUDS TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS MORNING WITH
CLEARING WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
FARTHER OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE RIDGES UNTIL
LATE DAY. TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WELL INTO THE 30S. REGION HAS PAST DATES
FOR ANY FROST OR FREEZE PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND A BIT MILDER
TEMPERATURES. FOR THE WEEKEND A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL
QUICKLY CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. DRY AND
BREEZY SUNDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING WL ADVN EWD ACRS THE RGN INTO ERLY NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN
THE FCST. MDLS DIFFER ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A MID WK TROF. GENLY
SIDED CLOSE TO A WEAKER ENSEMBLE/WPC SOLN...KEEPING LOW SHWR CHCS
MID WK. WRM ADVCTN IS EXPD TO BRING ABV SEASONAL AVG TEMPS ERLY NXT
WK...WITH A RTN TO SEASONABLY COOL NMBRS AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE MID
WK TROF.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR SC...WITH AREAS OF MVFR SC...WL CONT IN N FLOW ARND E COAST LOW
PRES. THE CIGS SHOULD GRDLY ERODE LTR THIS MRNG AS DRIER AIR BEGINS
TO MOVE IN AS THE LOW DRIFTS NE...RTNG VFR CONDS TO THE RGN.

.AVIATION /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230627
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
227 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
DOUBLE BARREL SFC LO PRES OFF THE CST...ONE CENTER SE OF LONG
ISLAND...A SECOND ONE E OF THE VA ERN SHORE. MDLS CONSOLATE THE
SFC LO SE OF LONG ISLAND BY LT TNGT. PCPN HAS CONTD TO GRADUALLY
DCRS IN COVERAGE THIS EVE...THOUGH WILL HOLD ONTO SLGT CHC/LO CHC
POPS ERN 1/3RD INTO THE OVRNGT HRS. ALSO...GUSTY MNLY NW WNDS (TO
20-30 MPH) MNLY FOUND FM I 95 TO THE CST...WILL BE SLO TO DIMINISH
(INLAND) OVRNGT. LO TEMPS IN THE L40S W TO L50S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS QUICKLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM
THE OH VALLEY. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES THURSDAY...ALLOWING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WHERE GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
WILL OCCUR...15-25 MPH ELSEWHERE. A 20% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE. STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY
NE TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60
ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE UPPER 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND
SOUTH CENTRAL VA. MOSTLY CLEAR SW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE THU NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE
AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY
CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND MILDER TEMPS. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
SATURDAY FOR DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S TO
LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY
MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING
OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70 SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 70S BY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER IN THE PERIOD.
22/12Z GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE TRENDED SOMEWHAT WETTER AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
RATHER LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDS OVER REGIONAL TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH AREAS
OF MVFR LINGERING ALONG THE COAST WITH CIGS ~3KFT. DEEPENING LOW
PRES SYS NOW WELL OF THE NY/NJ COAST.LINE...AND WILL CONT UP THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...EVENTUALLY
LOCATING OFF THE COAST OF MAINE BY FRI MORNING. CONDS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY, WITH VFR CONDS TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH FRI MORNING. PRES GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN COMPRESSED TODAY...RESULTING IN GUSTY N-NW WINDS TO AROUND
20-25 KT OVER THE EASTERN SHORE INTO THU AFTN.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE WEST THU NGT AND FRIDAY. VFR CONDS LOOK TO PERSIST FRIDAY
AND THROUGH THW WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. A NNW WIND SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND AVERAGE 25-30KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40KT THROUGH THE
EVENING (20-25KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT OVER THE RIVERS). SEAS
SHOULD BUILD TO 6-9FT N THROUGH S OUT NEAR 20NM...WITH 4-6FT SEAS
NEARSHORE...AND 3-5FT WAVES IN THE BAY. THE LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
LIFT NE LATE TONIGHT AND REACHES A POSITION OFF OF CAPE COD THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
THIS TIME...BUT SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN SCA CRITERIA. THE GRADIENT
FINALLY SLACKENS ENOUGH FOR SCA CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
EVENTUALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HAVE ADDED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVY FOR THIS MORNING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE
OVER WORCESTER COUNTY. TIDAL DEPARTURES IN VICINITY OF OCEAN CITY
INLET WILL AVERAGE 1.5-2.0 FT ABOVE NORMAL DURING HIGH TIDE AGAIN
THURSDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS OCEAN CITY INLET
EXCEEDING MINOR DURING HIGH TIDE THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE WILL BE A FEW TENTHS HIGHER. WITH A NNW
WIND...THE MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE ALONG THE SHORELINES OF
ASSAWOMAN AND CHINCOTEAUGE BAYS...AND THE ADJACENT OCEAN INLETS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ024-
     025.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>633.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230614
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
214 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
DOUBLE BARREL SFC LO PRES OFF THE CST...ONE CENTER SE OF LONG
ISLAND...A SECOND ONE E OF THE VA ERN SHORE. MDLS CONSOLATE THE
SFC LO SE OF LONG ISLAND BY LT TNGT. PCPN HAS CONTD TO GRADUALLY
DCRS IN COVERAGE THIS EVE...THOUGH WILL HOLD ONTO SLGT CHC/LO CHC
POPS ERN 1/3RD INTO THE OVRNGT HRS. ALSO...GUSTY MNLY NW WNDS (TO
20-30 MPH) MNLY FOUND FM I 95 TO THE CST...WILL BE SLO TO DIMINISH
(INLAND) OVRNGT. LO TEMPS IN THE L40S W TO L50S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS QUICKLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM
THE OH VALLEY. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES THURSDAY...ALLOWING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WHERE GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
WILL OCCUR...15-25 MPH ELSEWHERE. A 20% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE. STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY
NE TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60
ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE UPPER 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND
SOUTH CENTRAL VA. MOSTLY CLEAR SW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE THU NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE
AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY
CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND MILDER TEMPS. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
SATURDAY FOR DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S TO
LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY
MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING
OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70 SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 70S BY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER IN THE PERIOD.
22/12Z GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE TRENDED SOMEWHAT WETTER AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
RATHER LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDS OVER REGIONAL TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH AREAS
OF MVFR LINGERING ALONG THE COAST WITH CIGS ~3KFT. DEEPENING LOW
PRES SYS NOW OFF THE E NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE LOW WILL CONT UP
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AND OFF THE
COAST OF MAINE BY FRI MORNING. CONDS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE
THROUGH THE DAY, WITH VFR CONDS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION THROUGH FRI MORNING. PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN COMPRESSED
TODAY...RESULTING IN GUSTY N-NW WINDS TO AROUND 20-25 KT OVER THE
EASTERN SHORE INTO THU AFTN.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE WEST THU NGT AND FRIDAY. VFR CONDS LOOK TO PERSIST FRIDAY
AND THROUGH THW WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. A NNW WIND SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND AVERAGE 25-30KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40KT THROUGH THE
EVENING (20-25KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT OVER THE RIVERS). SEAS
SHOULD BUILD TO 6-9FT N THROUGH S OUT NEAR 20NM...WITH 4-6FT SEAS
NEARSHORE...AND 3-5FT WAVES IN THE BAY. THE LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
LIFT NE LATE TONIGHT AND REACHES A POSITION OFF OF CAPE COD THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
THIS TIME...BUT SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN SCA CRITERIA. THE GRADIENT
FINALLY SLACKENS ENOUGH FOR SCA CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
EVENTUALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HAVE ADDED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVY FOR THIS MORNING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE
OVER WORCESTER COUNTY. TIDAL DEPARTURES IN VICINITY OF OCEAN CITY
INLET WILL AVERAGE 1.5-2.0 FT ABOVE NORMAL DURING HIGH TIDE AGAIN
THURSDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS OCEAN CITY INLET
EXCEEDING MINOR DURING HIGH TIDE THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE WILL BE A FEW TENTHS HIGHER. WITH A NNW
WIND...THE MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE ALONG THE SHORELINES OF
ASSAWOMAN AND CHINCOTEAUGE BAYS...AND THE ADJACENT OCEAN INLETS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ024-
     025.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>633.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...








000
FXUS61 KPHI 230556
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
156 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD. THIS STORM SYSTEM SHOULD BE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER TODAY INTO FRIDAY, THEN MOVE INTO NOVA
SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TOWARD OUR
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND THE SURFACE LOW ARE BOTH LOCATED
OFFSHORE. THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THIS MORNING.

CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION AND IT IS STILL PRETTY GUSTY
IN THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
INTO THE 40S BY DAYBREAK.

RAIN ROTATING AROUND THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION IN OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. SOMETIMES THE
RAIN WILL COME DOWN A LITTLE HEAVIER THAN AT OTHER TIMES, BUT MOST
OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA
DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A DRY SLOT HAS MADE ITS WAY
INLAND AND WILL PROVIDE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION
EARLY THIS MORNING. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA
THROUGH THIS MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE ENTIRE CWA SHOULD
BE IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE, WITH LESSER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOS...AND WESTERN BERKS COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
THE MID LEVEL LOW AND THE SURFACE LOW ARE FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD
THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD, AS WELL.

WE ARE EXPECTING THE RAIN TO BECOME SHOWERY AND END GRADUALLY FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY.

THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND IN THE 10 TO 20
MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. THE CLOUDS AND THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING ABOVE THE 50S ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE EXTENDED IS
PRETTY GOOD, BUT ONCE YOU GET PAST SATURDAY A MUCH LARGER SPREAD IS
SEEN. WE WILL, HOWEVER, BE TRANSITIONING FROM TROUGHINESS TO DEGREES
OF RIDGING THROUGH THE EXTENDED, STARTING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR
THE MOST PART WE MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY DRY LONG TERM FROM SATURDAY
ONWARD AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD TO OUR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN AND PULL AWAY TO OUR
NORTHEAST WITH JUST SOME LINGERING BACKSIDE SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES. THE OVERALL TREND ON FRIDAY IS FOR DRYING AS THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND BACK IN THE LOW TO MID-60S
WITH LESS CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND THE LACK OF SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY,
HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT STILL UNSURE IF WE WILL SEE A DRY PASSAGE WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THINKING THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO
MODIFY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND HOW MUCH INFLUENCE THE ENERGY WILL
HAVE AS IT COMES IN ON THE HEELS OF THE ONCE CUT-OFF LOW. WITH THE
LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE EXPECTED IT SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERALLY
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY
AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND, WHICH MEANS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A BREEZY DAY MAY
OCCUR AS MIXING DEEPENS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES TOWARD THE EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WARMING
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS TIME FRAME, WITH
JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW 12Z WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT THE TERMINALS. RAIN IS
FAIRLY LIGHT AT THIS TIME AS A DRY SLOT HAS STARTING TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH THIS MORNING, ENDING BY THIS AFTERNOON.

CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THIS MORNING BUT WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT AND SHOULD BECOME VFR BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AT THE
TERMINALS.

THE WINDS ARE OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SUSTAINED
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 12 TO 18 KNOTS WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30
KNOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE GUSTINESS SHOULD START TO SUBSIDE
LATER THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR. CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTH OF ABE. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE, LOWER ON SHOWERS.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. DRY COLD
FRONT PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 600 PM FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS AND
FOR THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE
SLOW MOVING LOW OFF THE COAST SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WIND OVER OUR WATERS WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS ANTICIPATED. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE UPPER PART OF
DELAWARE BAY. GUSTS THERE SHOULD PEAK AROUND 30 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST, ONCE THE GALES
COME DOWN, AS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST
THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE RELAXING BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...SUB-SCA. WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...PERIOD OF SCA POSSIBLE BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RUNNING HIGH DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE STORM OFF THE
COAST AND THE APPROACHING NEW MOON. HIGH TIDES WEDNESDAY EVENING
PEAKED JUST AT OR SLIGHTLY UNDER MINOR FLOOD LEVELS ALONG THE
OCEAN. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE...TODAY AROUND NOON...WILL HAVE A
SLIGHTLY HIGHER ASTRONOMICAL COMPONENT BUT WINDS WILL HAVE A MORE
PRONOUNCED NORTHWEST COMPONENT WHICH MIGHT HELP PUSH WATER AWAY
FROM THE COAST. RIGHT NOW THE ONLY FLOODING WE/RE EXPECTING WOULD
BE ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING BELOW OUR ESTABLISHED THRESHOLDS NEEDED
FOR AN ADVISORY. HOWEVER...WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THE
SITUATION AND ISSUE ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AS NECESSARY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/MEOLA
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230416
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1216 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...ALLOWING A HIGH
TO BUILD IN WITH DRY AND MILDER WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A FEW HOLES IN OVERCAST BUT BASICALLY STRATUS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY AS CLOSED LOW CONTINUES
TO SPIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EDGE EAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ERODING CLOUDS IN
THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SKIES TO BEGIN TO CLEAR WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES STEADY OVERNIGHT IN THE 40S AND
UPPER 30S...RECOVERING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN PUSH
ACROSS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA ON FRIDAY.

MODELS THEN INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY.  AFTER DRY WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT...HAVE
RE-INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS THRU ERLY
NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. A WKNG TROF IS PROGGED FOR A
MID WK PASSAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E. SEASONALLY COOL WKEND TEMPS
ARE EXP TO INCR TO ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR SC WL CONT IN N FLOW ARND E COAST LOW PRES. THE CIGS
SHOULD GRDLY ERODE LTR THIS MRNG AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN AS
THE LOW DRIFTS NE...RTNG VFR CONDS TO THE RGN.

.AVIATION /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$













000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230416
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1216 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...ALLOWING A HIGH
TO BUILD IN WITH DRY AND MILDER WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A FEW HOLES IN OVERCAST BUT BASICALLY STRATUS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY AS CLOSED LOW CONTINUES
TO SPIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EDGE EAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ERODING CLOUDS IN
THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SKIES TO BEGIN TO CLEAR WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES STEADY OVERNIGHT IN THE 40S AND
UPPER 30S...RECOVERING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN PUSH
ACROSS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA ON FRIDAY.

MODELS THEN INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY.  AFTER DRY WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT...HAVE
RE-INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS THRU ERLY
NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. A WKNG TROF IS PROGGED FOR A
MID WK PASSAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E. SEASONALLY COOL WKEND TEMPS
ARE EXP TO INCR TO ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR SC WL CONT IN N FLOW ARND E COAST LOW PRES. THE CIGS
SHOULD GRDLY ERODE LTR THIS MRNG AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN AS
THE LOW DRIFTS NE...RTNG VFR CONDS TO THE RGN.

.AVIATION /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$













000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230201
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1001 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
DOUBLE BARREL SFC LO PRES OFF THE CST...ONE CENTER SE OF LONG
ISLAND...A SECOND ONE E OF THE VA ERN SHORE. MDLS CONSOLATE THE
SFC LO SE OF LONG ISLAND BY LT TNGT. PCPN HAS CONTD TO GRADUALLY
DCRS IN COVERAGE THIS EVE...THOUGH WILL HOLD ONTO SLGT CHC/LO CHC
POPS ERN 1/3RD INTO THE OVRNGT HRS. ALSO...GUSTY MNLY NW WNDS (TO
20-30 MPH) MNLY FOUND FM I 95 TO THE CST...WILL BE SLO TO DIMINISH
(INLAND) OVRNGT. LO TEMPS IN THE L40S W TO L50S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS QUICKLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM
THE OH VALLEY. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES THURSDAY...ALLOWING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WHERE GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
WILL OCCUR...15-25 MPH ELSEWHERE. A 20% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE. STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY
NE TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60
ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE UPPER 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND
SOUTH CENTRAL VA. MOSTLY CLEAR SW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE THU NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE
AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY
CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND MILDER TEMPS. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
SATURDAY FOR DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S TO
LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY
MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING
OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70 SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 70S BY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER IN THE PERIOD.
22/12Z GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE TRENDED SOMEWHAT WETTER AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
RATHER LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRES SYS IS NOW WELL OFF THE DELMARVA COAST BUT CONTS
TO BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MVFR CLOUDS TO THE REGION. THE
LOW WILL CONT UP THE EAST COAST AND BE OFF NEW ENGLAND BY THU AFTN
AND OFF MAINE BY FRI MORNING. CONDS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THRU
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND MOSTLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION BY FRI MORNING. GUSTY NW-N WINDS TO 20-25 KT WILL
CONT OVER THE EASTERN SHORE INTO THU AFTN.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE
TN RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. A NNW WIND SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND AVERAGE 25-30KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40KT THROUGH THE
EVENING (20-25KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT OVER THE RIVERS). SEAS
SHOULD BUILD TO 6-9FT N THROUGH S OUT NEAR 20NM...WITH 4-6FT SEAS
NEARSHORE...AND 3-5FT WAVES IN THE BAY. THE LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
LIFT NE LATE TONIGHT AND REACHES A POSITION OFF OF CAPE COD THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
THIS TIME...BUT SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN SCA CRITERIA. THE GRADIENT
FINALLY SLACKENS ENOUGH FOR SCA CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
EVENTUALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES IN VICINITY OF OCEAN CITY INLET WILL AVERAGE
1.5-2.0 FT ABOVE NORMAL DURING HIGH TIDE AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING. THE
CURRENT FORECAST HAS OCEAN CITY INLET EXCEEDING MINOR DURING HIGH
TIDE THURSDAY MORNING AS THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE WILL BE A FEW
TENTHS HIGHER. WITH A NNW WIND...THE MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE
ALONG THE SHORELINES OF ASSAWOMAN AND CHINCOTEAUGE BAYS...AND THE
ADJACENT OCEAN INLETS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...DAP/JEF
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





















000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230201
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1001 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
DOUBLE BARREL SFC LO PRES OFF THE CST...ONE CENTER SE OF LONG
ISLAND...A SECOND ONE E OF THE VA ERN SHORE. MDLS CONSOLATE THE
SFC LO SE OF LONG ISLAND BY LT TNGT. PCPN HAS CONTD TO GRADUALLY
DCRS IN COVERAGE THIS EVE...THOUGH WILL HOLD ONTO SLGT CHC/LO CHC
POPS ERN 1/3RD INTO THE OVRNGT HRS. ALSO...GUSTY MNLY NW WNDS (TO
20-30 MPH) MNLY FOUND FM I 95 TO THE CST...WILL BE SLO TO DIMINISH
(INLAND) OVRNGT. LO TEMPS IN THE L40S W TO L50S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS QUICKLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM
THE OH VALLEY. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES THURSDAY...ALLOWING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WHERE GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
WILL OCCUR...15-25 MPH ELSEWHERE. A 20% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE. STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY
NE TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60
ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE UPPER 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND
SOUTH CENTRAL VA. MOSTLY CLEAR SW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE THU NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE
AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY
CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND MILDER TEMPS. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
SATURDAY FOR DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S TO
LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY
MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING
OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70 SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 70S BY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER IN THE PERIOD.
22/12Z GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE TRENDED SOMEWHAT WETTER AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
RATHER LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRES SYS IS NOW WELL OFF THE DELMARVA COAST BUT CONTS
TO BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MVFR CLOUDS TO THE REGION. THE
LOW WILL CONT UP THE EAST COAST AND BE OFF NEW ENGLAND BY THU AFTN
AND OFF MAINE BY FRI MORNING. CONDS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THRU
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND MOSTLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION BY FRI MORNING. GUSTY NW-N WINDS TO 20-25 KT WILL
CONT OVER THE EASTERN SHORE INTO THU AFTN.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE
TN RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. A NNW WIND SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND AVERAGE 25-30KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40KT THROUGH THE
EVENING (20-25KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT OVER THE RIVERS). SEAS
SHOULD BUILD TO 6-9FT N THROUGH S OUT NEAR 20NM...WITH 4-6FT SEAS
NEARSHORE...AND 3-5FT WAVES IN THE BAY. THE LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
LIFT NE LATE TONIGHT AND REACHES A POSITION OFF OF CAPE COD THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
THIS TIME...BUT SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN SCA CRITERIA. THE GRADIENT
FINALLY SLACKENS ENOUGH FOR SCA CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
EVENTUALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES IN VICINITY OF OCEAN CITY INLET WILL AVERAGE
1.5-2.0 FT ABOVE NORMAL DURING HIGH TIDE AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING. THE
CURRENT FORECAST HAS OCEAN CITY INLET EXCEEDING MINOR DURING HIGH
TIDE THURSDAY MORNING AS THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE WILL BE A FEW
TENTHS HIGHER. WITH A NNW WIND...THE MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE
ALONG THE SHORELINES OF ASSAWOMAN AND CHINCOTEAUGE BAYS...AND THE
ADJACENT OCEAN INLETS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...DAP/JEF
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





















000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230154 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
954 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...ALLOWING A HIGH TO
BUILD IN...RESULTING IN DRY AND WARM WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.  A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
10PM UPDATE...STILL WRESTLING WITH CLOUD COVER. LARGE HOLE HAS
DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF OHIO/WPA. HOWEVER THIS HAS CLOSED BACK
IN QUICKLY TO THE NORTH. WILL STILL CONTINUE WITH A CLOUDY
FORECAST OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

UPPER LOW...CENTERED OFF THE DELMARVA COAST...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES AWAY...MODELS INDICATE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN.

AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...WITH
MOST LOCATIONS DRY BEFORE SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.

USED A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN PUSH
ACROSS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA ON FRIDAY.

MODELS THEN INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY.  AFTER DRY WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT...HAVE
RE-INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS THRU ERLY
NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. A WKNG TROF IS PROGGED FOR A
MID WK PASSAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E. SEASONALLY COOL WKEND TEMPS
ARE EXP TO INCR TO ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT UNDER CONTINUED
CYCLONIC FLOW. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
12Z THURSDAY...AFTER WHICH VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW SITES SCATTERING OUT EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED AS
DRY AIR TRIES TO INTRUDE FROM THE NORTH...BUT FEEL THAT CLOUDS
WILL HOLD ON TOUGH.  N/NW WINDS WILL SLACKEN OFF THIS EVENING.

.AVIATION /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230154 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
954 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...ALLOWING A HIGH TO
BUILD IN...RESULTING IN DRY AND WARM WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.  A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
10PM UPDATE...STILL WRESTLING WITH CLOUD COVER. LARGE HOLE HAS
DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF OHIO/WPA. HOWEVER THIS HAS CLOSED BACK
IN QUICKLY TO THE NORTH. WILL STILL CONTINUE WITH A CLOUDY
FORECAST OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

UPPER LOW...CENTERED OFF THE DELMARVA COAST...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES AWAY...MODELS INDICATE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN.

AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...WITH
MOST LOCATIONS DRY BEFORE SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.

USED A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN PUSH
ACROSS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA ON FRIDAY.

MODELS THEN INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY.  AFTER DRY WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT...HAVE
RE-INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS THRU ERLY
NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. A WKNG TROF IS PROGGED FOR A
MID WK PASSAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E. SEASONALLY COOL WKEND TEMPS
ARE EXP TO INCR TO ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT UNDER CONTINUED
CYCLONIC FLOW. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
12Z THURSDAY...AFTER WHICH VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW SITES SCATTERING OUT EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED AS
DRY AIR TRIES TO INTRUDE FROM THE NORTH...BUT FEEL THAT CLOUDS
WILL HOLD ON TOUGH.  N/NW WINDS WILL SLACKEN OFF THIS EVENING.

.AVIATION /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 230151
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
951 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM SHOULD
BE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THEN MOVE
INTO NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
TOWARD OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE MID LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE WATERS OFF DELMARVA THIS
EVENING. IT SHOULD LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TO THE WATERS OFF NEW
JERSEY AND LONG ISLAND TOWARD MORNING. MEANWHILE, THE SURFACE LOW
WAS CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES OFF THE DELAWARE COAST. THAT FEATURE
IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT ABOUT 50 MILES TO THE EAST DURING THE COURSE
OF THE NIGHT.

IT WILL REMAIN OVERCAST AND CHILLY IN OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S. THE WIND
SHOULD BACK FROM THE NORTH TO THE NORTHWEST AT SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO
15 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S.

RAIN ROTATING AROUND THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION IN OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. SOMETIMES THE
RAIN WILL COME DOWN A LITTLE HEAVIER THAN AT OTHER TIMES, BUT MOST
OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA
DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT PERIOE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE ENTIRE
CWA SHOULD BE IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE, WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOES...AND WESTERN BERKS COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL LOW AND THE SURFACE LOW ARE FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD
THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD, AS WELL.

WE ARE EXPECTING THE RAIN TO BECOME SHOWERY AND END GRADUALLY FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY.

THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND IN THE 10 TO 20
MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. THE CLOUDS AND THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING ABOVE THE 50S ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE EXTENDED IS
PRETTY GOOD, BUT ONCE YOU GET PAST SATURDAY A MUCH LARGER SPREAD IS
SEEN. WE WILL, HOWEVER, BE TRANSITIONING FROM TROUGHINESS TO DEGREES
OF RIDGING THROUGH THE EXTENDED, STARTING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR
THE MOST PART WE MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY DRY LONGTERM FROM SATURDAY
ONWARD AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD TO OUR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN AND PULL AWAY TO OUR
NORTHEAST WITH JUST SOME LINGERING BACKSIDE SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES. THE OVERALL TREND ON FRIDAY IS FOR DRYING AS THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND BACK IN THE LOW TO MID-60S
WITH LESS CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND THE LACK OF SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY,
HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT STILL UNSURE IF WE WILL SEE A DRY PASSAGE WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THINKING THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO
MODIFY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND HOW MUCH INFLUENCE THE ENERGY WILL
HAVE AS IT COMES IN ON THE HEELS OF THE ONCE CUT-OFF LOW. WITH THE
LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE EXPECTED IT SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERALLY
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY
AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND, WHICH MEANS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A BREEZY DAY MAY
OCCUR AS MIXING DEEPENS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES TOWARD THE EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WARMING
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS TIME FRAME, WITH
JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW 12Z WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENERALLY, MVFR CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT IN OUR
REGION. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED, WITH SOME BREAKS IN BETWEEN.

THE CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT GRADUALLY INTO THE VFR CATEGORY
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO
BECOME MORE SHOWERY AND IT SHOULD END AT OUR TAF SITES BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.

THE WIND SHIFTED FROM NORTH TO NORTHWEST AFTER SUNSET, AND A
NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. SUSTAINED
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO
THE 20S OR HIGHER ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR. CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTH OF ABE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE,
LOWER ON SHOWERS.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. DRY COLD
FRONT PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 600 PM THURSDAY FOR OUR OCEAN
WATERS AND FOR THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY. THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THE SLOW MOVING LOW OFF THE COAST SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WIND OVER OUR WATERS WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS
ANTICIPATED. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE UPPER
PART OF DELAWARE BAY. GUSTS THERE SHOULD PEAK AROUND 30 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST, ONCE THE GALES
COME DOWN, AS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST
THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE RELAXING BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...SUB-SCA. WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...PERIOD OF SCA POSSIBLE BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RUNNING HIGH DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE STORM OFF THE
COAST AND THE APPROACHING NEW MOON. HIGH TIDES WEDNESDAY EVENING
PEAKED JUST AT OR SLIGHTLY UNDER MINOR FLOOD LEVELS ALONG THE
OCEAN. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE...THURSDAY MORNING AROUND NOON...WILL
HAVE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER ASTRONOMICAL COMPONENT BUT WINDS WILL HAVE
A MORE PRONOUNCED NORTHWEST COMPONENT WHICH MIGHT HELP PUSH WATER
AWAY FROM THE COAST. RIGHT NOW THE ONLY FLOODING WE/RE EXPECTING
WOULD BE ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING BELOW OUR ESTABLISHED THRESHOLDS
NEEDED FOR AN ADVISORY. HOWEVER...WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THE
SITUATION AND ISSUE ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AS NECESSARY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER/MIKETTA
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER/MIKETTA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIKETTA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 230151
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
951 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM SHOULD
BE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THEN MOVE
INTO NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
TOWARD OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE MID LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE WATERS OFF DELMARVA THIS
EVENING. IT SHOULD LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TO THE WATERS OFF NEW
JERSEY AND LONG ISLAND TOWARD MORNING. MEANWHILE, THE SURFACE LOW
WAS CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES OFF THE DELAWARE COAST. THAT FEATURE
IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT ABOUT 50 MILES TO THE EAST DURING THE COURSE
OF THE NIGHT.

IT WILL REMAIN OVERCAST AND CHILLY IN OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S. THE WIND
SHOULD BACK FROM THE NORTH TO THE NORTHWEST AT SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO
15 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S.

RAIN ROTATING AROUND THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION IN OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. SOMETIMES THE
RAIN WILL COME DOWN A LITTLE HEAVIER THAN AT OTHER TIMES, BUT MOST
OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA
DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT PERIOE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE ENTIRE
CWA SHOULD BE IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE, WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOES...AND WESTERN BERKS COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL LOW AND THE SURFACE LOW ARE FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD
THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD, AS WELL.

WE ARE EXPECTING THE RAIN TO BECOME SHOWERY AND END GRADUALLY FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY.

THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND IN THE 10 TO 20
MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. THE CLOUDS AND THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING ABOVE THE 50S ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE EXTENDED IS
PRETTY GOOD, BUT ONCE YOU GET PAST SATURDAY A MUCH LARGER SPREAD IS
SEEN. WE WILL, HOWEVER, BE TRANSITIONING FROM TROUGHINESS TO DEGREES
OF RIDGING THROUGH THE EXTENDED, STARTING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR
THE MOST PART WE MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY DRY LONGTERM FROM SATURDAY
ONWARD AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD TO OUR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN AND PULL AWAY TO OUR
NORTHEAST WITH JUST SOME LINGERING BACKSIDE SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES. THE OVERALL TREND ON FRIDAY IS FOR DRYING AS THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND BACK IN THE LOW TO MID-60S
WITH LESS CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND THE LACK OF SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY,
HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT STILL UNSURE IF WE WILL SEE A DRY PASSAGE WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THINKING THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO
MODIFY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND HOW MUCH INFLUENCE THE ENERGY WILL
HAVE AS IT COMES IN ON THE HEELS OF THE ONCE CUT-OFF LOW. WITH THE
LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE EXPECTED IT SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERALLY
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY
AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND, WHICH MEANS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A BREEZY DAY MAY
OCCUR AS MIXING DEEPENS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES TOWARD THE EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WARMING
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS TIME FRAME, WITH
JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW 12Z WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENERALLY, MVFR CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT IN OUR
REGION. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED, WITH SOME BREAKS IN BETWEEN.

THE CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT GRADUALLY INTO THE VFR CATEGORY
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO
BECOME MORE SHOWERY AND IT SHOULD END AT OUR TAF SITES BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.

THE WIND SHIFTED FROM NORTH TO NORTHWEST AFTER SUNSET, AND A
NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. SUSTAINED
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO
THE 20S OR HIGHER ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR. CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTH OF ABE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE,
LOWER ON SHOWERS.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. DRY COLD
FRONT PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 600 PM THURSDAY FOR OUR OCEAN
WATERS AND FOR THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY. THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THE SLOW MOVING LOW OFF THE COAST SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WIND OVER OUR WATERS WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS
ANTICIPATED. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE UPPER
PART OF DELAWARE BAY. GUSTS THERE SHOULD PEAK AROUND 30 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST, ONCE THE GALES
COME DOWN, AS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST
THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE RELAXING BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...SUB-SCA. WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...PERIOD OF SCA POSSIBLE BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RUNNING HIGH DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE STORM OFF THE
COAST AND THE APPROACHING NEW MOON. HIGH TIDES WEDNESDAY EVENING
PEAKED JUST AT OR SLIGHTLY UNDER MINOR FLOOD LEVELS ALONG THE
OCEAN. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE...THURSDAY MORNING AROUND NOON...WILL
HAVE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER ASTRONOMICAL COMPONENT BUT WINDS WILL HAVE
A MORE PRONOUNCED NORTHWEST COMPONENT WHICH MIGHT HELP PUSH WATER
AWAY FROM THE COAST. RIGHT NOW THE ONLY FLOODING WE/RE EXPECTING
WOULD BE ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING BELOW OUR ESTABLISHED THRESHOLDS
NEEDED FOR AN ADVISORY. HOWEVER...WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THE
SITUATION AND ISSUE ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AS NECESSARY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER/MIKETTA
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER/MIKETTA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIKETTA







000
FXUS61 KLWX 230128
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
928 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FRIDAY AND REMAIN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
DEEPENING LOPRES OFF THE NJ SHORE ATTM. THE BACK EDGE OF THE PCPN
HAS MAINLY PUSHED EWD TO THE CHSPK BAY. A FEW ELEMENTS MAY STILL
GLIDE SWD ALONG/E OF I-95 THRU THE EVNG...AND AM CARRYING CHC POPS
TO ACCT FOR THIS THRU MIDNGT.

THE BIGGER STORY IS THE CLRG THAT SUBSIDENCE/DOWNSLOPE FLOW HAS
CARVED OUT E OF THE BLURDG. ALTHO THE LWX SNDG FAIRLY SATD...
THERE/S PLENTY OF DRY AT VIA RNK RAOB. BELIEVE THAT CLDS WL PART
AREAWIDE OVNGT.

BUFKIT PROFILES DEPICT PLENTY OF WIND NOT TOO FAR OFF THE GRND...
HWVR MOMENTUM TRANSFER LOOKS REMARKABLY POOR FOR NW FLOW. SAME
HOLDS TRUE FOR LWX RAOB...THX TO SLGT H9-8 CAP. WL BE KEEPING PRVS
THROUGH PROCESS OF NO WND ADVY NCSRY...AS THE HIEST WINDS ALOFT WL
BE JUST E OF BLURDG. WL CONT TO MONITOR.

RAISED MIN-T SVRL DEGF...BASED ON CONTD MIXING OVNGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LOW CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY PULL AWAY THURSDAY. NOT EXPECTING
RAIN...EXCEPT POSSIBLE UPSLOPE RAIN OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.
CLOUD SHIELD EXPECTED TO STAY IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BUT CLEARING EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN COUNTIES. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...SO N-NW
WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. HIGH TEMPS
PRIMARILY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

COASTAL LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. CLEARING EXPECTED OVER DC/BALTIMORE
AREAS. WINDS DIMINISH WITH DECOUPLING. LOWS IN THE 40S...AND UPPER
30S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL...THE LONG TERM WILL BE A RATHER QUIET PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
EASE. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST RIDGES INTO
THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSING OVERHEAD COULD LEAD TO
SOME AN INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE TROUGH
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER AT THE SURFACE.

A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE HUDSON BAY
WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO BE A DRY COLD
FRONT...WITH ONLY A COUPLE DEGREE DROP IN TEMPERATURES RESULTING. IT
IS WORTH NOTING THAT MODELS ARE TRENDING THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF PRECIP
CLOSER TO THE AREA...BUT AT THIS POINT IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO STAY
TO OUR NORTH SO NO POPS IN THE FORECAST. SUNDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AGGRESSIVELY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SHOULD
BE OVERHEAD BY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE AS
THIS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TUESDAY AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
FILLS IN. MANY PLACES COULD BE INTO THE 70S ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
MAY APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

TERMINALS UP TO VFR CONDS ATTM...AND THAT SHUD HOLD OVNGT INTO
THU. CIGS BKN-OVC035-040...BUT CLRG STARTING TO BREAK OUT JUST E
OF BLURDG AND SHUD OVERSPREAD TAF SITES BEFORE MRNG PUSH. WINDS
SHUD BE THE ONLY FACTOR AFFECTING TERMINALS. G20-25 KT STARTING TO
WANE AT THE GRND...BUT WNDS AT THE HUBS 1000-2000 FT UP PROGGED TO
INCR TO 40 KT. AT LAST RUN...THAT WASNT ENUF TO TRIGGER LLWS
RMK... BUT ITS LKLY ENUF TO HV AN IMPACT.

SIMLR CONDS THRU END OF TAF PD AS LOPRES E OF NJ MVS TWD NEW
ENGLAND.

VFR UNDER HIPRES RDG THRU THE WKND.
&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDS ON THE WATERS ATTM. GRADIENT PROGGED TO INCR...AND HIER
WNDS POISED JUST OFF THE DECK. MIXING MAY BE PROBLEMATIC. HV OPTED
TO ADD SANDY PT-NORTH BEACH TO GLW FOR POSITIONING TO STRONG
P-GRAD AND FVRBL FETCH. ELSW...AM HOLDING ONTO SCA THRU THE NGT
INTO THU.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THU NGT AS WELL AS
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY
EASY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA. AM NOT TACKLING
THAT NOW DUE TO ONGOING GLW HAZARDS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING FOR BREEZY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DRY COLD
FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ530-531-
     535-536-538>540-542.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-541-
     543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KCS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...KCS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...HTS
MARINE...HTS/CEB








000
FXUS61 KLWX 230128
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
928 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FRIDAY AND REMAIN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
DEEPENING LOPRES OFF THE NJ SHORE ATTM. THE BACK EDGE OF THE PCPN
HAS MAINLY PUSHED EWD TO THE CHSPK BAY. A FEW ELEMENTS MAY STILL
GLIDE SWD ALONG/E OF I-95 THRU THE EVNG...AND AM CARRYING CHC POPS
TO ACCT FOR THIS THRU MIDNGT.

THE BIGGER STORY IS THE CLRG THAT SUBSIDENCE/DOWNSLOPE FLOW HAS
CARVED OUT E OF THE BLURDG. ALTHO THE LWX SNDG FAIRLY SATD...
THERE/S PLENTY OF DRY AT VIA RNK RAOB. BELIEVE THAT CLDS WL PART
AREAWIDE OVNGT.

BUFKIT PROFILES DEPICT PLENTY OF WIND NOT TOO FAR OFF THE GRND...
HWVR MOMENTUM TRANSFER LOOKS REMARKABLY POOR FOR NW FLOW. SAME
HOLDS TRUE FOR LWX RAOB...THX TO SLGT H9-8 CAP. WL BE KEEPING PRVS
THROUGH PROCESS OF NO WND ADVY NCSRY...AS THE HIEST WINDS ALOFT WL
BE JUST E OF BLURDG. WL CONT TO MONITOR.

RAISED MIN-T SVRL DEGF...BASED ON CONTD MIXING OVNGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LOW CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY PULL AWAY THURSDAY. NOT EXPECTING
RAIN...EXCEPT POSSIBLE UPSLOPE RAIN OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.
CLOUD SHIELD EXPECTED TO STAY IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BUT CLEARING EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN COUNTIES. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...SO N-NW
WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. HIGH TEMPS
PRIMARILY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

COASTAL LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. CLEARING EXPECTED OVER DC/BALTIMORE
AREAS. WINDS DIMINISH WITH DECOUPLING. LOWS IN THE 40S...AND UPPER
30S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL...THE LONG TERM WILL BE A RATHER QUIET PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
EASE. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST RIDGES INTO
THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSING OVERHEAD COULD LEAD TO
SOME AN INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE TROUGH
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER AT THE SURFACE.

A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE HUDSON BAY
WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO BE A DRY COLD
FRONT...WITH ONLY A COUPLE DEGREE DROP IN TEMPERATURES RESULTING. IT
IS WORTH NOTING THAT MODELS ARE TRENDING THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF PRECIP
CLOSER TO THE AREA...BUT AT THIS POINT IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO STAY
TO OUR NORTH SO NO POPS IN THE FORECAST. SUNDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AGGRESSIVELY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SHOULD
BE OVERHEAD BY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE AS
THIS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TUESDAY AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
FILLS IN. MANY PLACES COULD BE INTO THE 70S ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
MAY APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

TERMINALS UP TO VFR CONDS ATTM...AND THAT SHUD HOLD OVNGT INTO
THU. CIGS BKN-OVC035-040...BUT CLRG STARTING TO BREAK OUT JUST E
OF BLURDG AND SHUD OVERSPREAD TAF SITES BEFORE MRNG PUSH. WINDS
SHUD BE THE ONLY FACTOR AFFECTING TERMINALS. G20-25 KT STARTING TO
WANE AT THE GRND...BUT WNDS AT THE HUBS 1000-2000 FT UP PROGGED TO
INCR TO 40 KT. AT LAST RUN...THAT WASNT ENUF TO TRIGGER LLWS
RMK... BUT ITS LKLY ENUF TO HV AN IMPACT.

SIMLR CONDS THRU END OF TAF PD AS LOPRES E OF NJ MVS TWD NEW
ENGLAND.

VFR UNDER HIPRES RDG THRU THE WKND.
&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDS ON THE WATERS ATTM. GRADIENT PROGGED TO INCR...AND HIER
WNDS POISED JUST OFF THE DECK. MIXING MAY BE PROBLEMATIC. HV OPTED
TO ADD SANDY PT-NORTH BEACH TO GLW FOR POSITIONING TO STRONG
P-GRAD AND FVRBL FETCH. ELSW...AM HOLDING ONTO SCA THRU THE NGT
INTO THU.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THU NGT AS WELL AS
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY
EASY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA. AM NOT TACKLING
THAT NOW DUE TO ONGOING GLW HAZARDS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING FOR BREEZY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DRY COLD
FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ530-531-
     535-536-538>540-542.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-541-
     543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KCS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...KCS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...HTS
MARINE...HTS/CEB








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230119
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
919 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMING
TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS 1005 MB SFC LOW ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF THE
MD EASTERN SHORE...WITH A STACKED UPR LOW FOLLOWING SUIT AND
TRACKING SLOW NE JUST OFFSHORE. BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA...WHERE SOME TSTM
ACTIVITY IS STILL ONGOING. ELSEWHERE...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BRING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR...THOUGH THIS ACTIVITY HAS TRENDED WEAKER IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS. STILL SEEING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS OUR SW
ZONES...WHERE TEMPS WERE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE MID 60S. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT NE THRU TONIGHT...
LOCATING OFF THE NJ COAST BY 12Z THU. WILL KEEP HIGH POPS ACROSS
OUR EASTERN ZONES INTO THIS EVENING AS THE WRAP AROUND PCPN
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH. PCPN SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND LIGHTER
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR...WITH LIGHT RAIN BECOMING JUST
DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES BEFORE ENDING AFTER SUNSET. BY LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...REMAINING CHC POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO FAR EASTERN VA
AND ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN SHORE. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
ACROSS THE SW...WITH SKY CONDITIONS BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. REMAINING BREEZY TO
WINDY ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY NE SECTIONS. LOWS IN THE LOW 40S
WEST TO AROUND 50 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS QUICKLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM
THE OH VALLEY. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES THURSDAY...ALLOWING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WHERE GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
WILL OCCUR...15-25 MPH ELSEWHERE. A 20% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE. STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY
NE TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60
ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE UPPER 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND
SOUTH CENTRAL VA. MOSTLY CLEAR SW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE THU NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE
AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY
CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND MILDER TEMPS. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
SATURDAY FOR DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S TO
LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY
MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING
OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70 SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 70S BY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER IN THE PERIOD.
22/12Z GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE TRENDED SOMEWHAT WETTER AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
RATHER LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRES SYS IS NOW WELL OFF THE DELMARVA COAST BUT CONTS
TO BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MVFR CLOUDS TO THE REGION. THE
LOW WILL CONT UP THE EAST COAST AND BE OFF NEW ENGLAND BY THU AFTN
AND OFF MAINE BY FRI MORNING. CONDS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THRU
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND MOSTLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION BY FRI MORNING. GUSTY NW-N WINDS TO 20-25 KT WILL
CONT OVER THE EASTERN SHORE INTO THU AFTN.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE
TN RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. A NNW WIND SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND AVERAGE 25-30KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40KT THROUGH THE
EVENING (20-25KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT OVER THE RIVERS). SEAS
SHOULD BUILD TO 6-9FT N THROUGH S OUT NEAR 20NM...WITH 4-6FT SEAS
NEARSHORE...AND 3-5FT WAVES IN THE BAY. THE LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
LIFT NE LATE TONIGHT AND REACHES A POSITION OFF OF CAPE COD THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
THIS TIME...BUT SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN SCA CRITERIA. THE GRADIENT
FINALLY SLACKENS ENOUGH FOR SCA CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
EVENTUALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES IN VICINITY OF OCEAN CITY INLET WILL AVERAGE
AROUND 1.5FT ABOVE NORMAL DURING HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING AND
THURSDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS OCEAN CITY INLET
FALLING JUST BELOW MINOR THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING AND EXCEEDING
MINOR DURING HIGH TIDE THURSDAY MORNING AS THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE
WILL BE A FEW TENTHS HIGHER. WITH A NNW WIND...THE MAIN AREAS OF
CONCERN WILL BE ALONG THE SHORELINES OF ASSAWOMAN AND CHINCOTEAUGE
BAYS...AND THE ADJACENT OCEAN INLETS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-656-
     658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ633.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...DAP/JEF
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230119
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
919 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMING
TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS 1005 MB SFC LOW ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF THE
MD EASTERN SHORE...WITH A STACKED UPR LOW FOLLOWING SUIT AND
TRACKING SLOW NE JUST OFFSHORE. BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA...WHERE SOME TSTM
ACTIVITY IS STILL ONGOING. ELSEWHERE...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BRING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR...THOUGH THIS ACTIVITY HAS TRENDED WEAKER IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS. STILL SEEING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS OUR SW
ZONES...WHERE TEMPS WERE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE MID 60S. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT NE THRU TONIGHT...
LOCATING OFF THE NJ COAST BY 12Z THU. WILL KEEP HIGH POPS ACROSS
OUR EASTERN ZONES INTO THIS EVENING AS THE WRAP AROUND PCPN
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH. PCPN SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND LIGHTER
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR...WITH LIGHT RAIN BECOMING JUST
DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES BEFORE ENDING AFTER SUNSET. BY LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...REMAINING CHC POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO FAR EASTERN VA
AND ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN SHORE. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
ACROSS THE SW...WITH SKY CONDITIONS BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. REMAINING BREEZY TO
WINDY ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY NE SECTIONS. LOWS IN THE LOW 40S
WEST TO AROUND 50 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS QUICKLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM
THE OH VALLEY. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES THURSDAY...ALLOWING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WHERE GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
WILL OCCUR...15-25 MPH ELSEWHERE. A 20% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE. STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY
NE TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60
ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE UPPER 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND
SOUTH CENTRAL VA. MOSTLY CLEAR SW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE THU NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE
AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY
CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND MILDER TEMPS. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
SATURDAY FOR DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S TO
LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY
MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING
OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70 SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 70S BY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER IN THE PERIOD.
22/12Z GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE TRENDED SOMEWHAT WETTER AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
RATHER LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRES SYS IS NOW WELL OFF THE DELMARVA COAST BUT CONTS
TO BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MVFR CLOUDS TO THE REGION. THE
LOW WILL CONT UP THE EAST COAST AND BE OFF NEW ENGLAND BY THU AFTN
AND OFF MAINE BY FRI MORNING. CONDS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THRU
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND MOSTLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION BY FRI MORNING. GUSTY NW-N WINDS TO 20-25 KT WILL
CONT OVER THE EASTERN SHORE INTO THU AFTN.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE
TN RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. A NNW WIND SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND AVERAGE 25-30KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40KT THROUGH THE
EVENING (20-25KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT OVER THE RIVERS). SEAS
SHOULD BUILD TO 6-9FT N THROUGH S OUT NEAR 20NM...WITH 4-6FT SEAS
NEARSHORE...AND 3-5FT WAVES IN THE BAY. THE LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
LIFT NE LATE TONIGHT AND REACHES A POSITION OFF OF CAPE COD THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
THIS TIME...BUT SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN SCA CRITERIA. THE GRADIENT
FINALLY SLACKENS ENOUGH FOR SCA CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
EVENTUALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES IN VICINITY OF OCEAN CITY INLET WILL AVERAGE
AROUND 1.5FT ABOVE NORMAL DURING HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING AND
THURSDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS OCEAN CITY INLET
FALLING JUST BELOW MINOR THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING AND EXCEEDING
MINOR DURING HIGH TIDE THURSDAY MORNING AS THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE
WILL BE A FEW TENTHS HIGHER. WITH A NNW WIND...THE MAIN AREAS OF
CONCERN WILL BE ALONG THE SHORELINES OF ASSAWOMAN AND CHINCOTEAUGE
BAYS...AND THE ADJACENT OCEAN INLETS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-656-
     658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ633.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...DAP/JEF
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 230004
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
804 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM SHOULD
BE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THEN MOVE
INTO NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
TOWARD OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE MID LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE WATERS OFF DELMARVA THIS
EVENING. IT SHOULD LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TO THE WATERS OFF NEW
JERSEY AND LONG ISLAND TOWARD MORNING. MEANWHILE, THE SURFACE LOW
WAS CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES OFF THE DELAWARE COAST. THAT FEATURE
IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT ABOUT 50 MILES TO THE EAST DURING THE COURSE
OF THE NIGHT.

IT WILL REMAIN OVERCAST AND CHILLY IN OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S. THE WIND
SHOULD BACK FROM THE NORTH TO THE NORTHWEST AT SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO
15 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S.

RAIN ROTATING AROUND THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION IN OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. SOMETIMES THE
RAIN WILL COME DOWN A LITTLE HEAVIER THAN AT OTHER TIMES, BUT MOST
OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA
DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT PERIOE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE ENTIRE
CWA SHOULD BE IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE, WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOES...AND WESTERN BERKS COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL LOW AND THE SURFACE LOW ARE FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD
THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD, AS WELL.

WE ARE EXPECTING THE RAIN TO BECOME SHOWERY AND END GRADUALLY FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY.

THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND IN THE 10 TO 20
MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. THE CLOUDS AND THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING ABOVE THE 50S ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE EXTENDED IS
PRETTY GOOD, BUT ONCE YOU GET PAST SATURDAY A MUCH LARGER SPREAD IS
SEEN. WE WILL, HOWEVER, BE TRANSITIONING FROM TROUGHINESS TO DEGREES
OF RIDGING THROUGH THE EXTENDED, STARTING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR
THE MOST PART WE MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY DRY LONGTERM FROM SATURDAY
ONWARD AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD TO OUR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN AND PULL AWAY TO OUR
NORTHEAST WITH JUST SOME LINGERING BACKSIDE SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES. THE OVERALL TREND ON FRIDAY IS FOR DRYING AS THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND BACK IN THE LOW TO MID-60S
WITH LESS CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND THE LACK OF SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY,
HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT STILL UNSURE IF WE WILL SEE A DRY PASSAGE WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THINKING THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO
MODIFY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND HOW MUCH INFLUENCE THE ENERGY WILL
HAVE AS IT COMES IN ON THE HEELS OF THE ONCE CUT-OFF LOW. WITH THE
LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE EXPECTED IT SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERALLY
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY
AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND, WHICH MEANS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A BREEZY DAY MAY
OCCUR AS MIXING DEEPENS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES TOWARD THE EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WARMING
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS TIME FRAME, WITH
JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW 12Z WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENERALLY, MVFR CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT IN OUR
REGION. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED, WITH SOME BREAKS IN BETWEEN.

THE CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT GRADUALLY INTO THE VFR CATEGORY
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO
BECOME MORE SHOWERY AND IT SHOULD END AT OUR TAF SITES BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.

THE WIND SHIFTED FROM NORTH TO NORTHWEST AFTER SUNSET, AND A
NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. SUSTAINED
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO
THE 20S OR HIGHER ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR. CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTH OF ABE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE,
LOWER ON SHOWERS.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. DRY COLD
FRONT PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 600 PM THURSDAY FOR OUR OCEAN
WATERS AND FOR THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY. THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THE SLOW MOVING LOW OFF THE COAST SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WIND OVER OUR WATERS WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS
ANTICIPATED. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE UPPER
PART OF DELAWARE BAY. GUSTS THERE SHOULD PEAK AROUND 30 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST, ONCE THE GALES
COME DOWN, AS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST
THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE RELAXING BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...SUB-SCA. WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...PERIOD OF SCA POSSIBLE BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RUNNING HIGH DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE STORM OFF THE
COAST AND THE APPROACHING NEW MOON. HIGH TIDES OCCUR THIS EVENING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT ALONG THE OCEAN, THEN AGAIN ON THURSDAY MORNING ALONG
THE OCEAN AROUND NOON. TOMMORROW/S HIGH TIDE HAS THE HIGHER
ASTRONOMICAL CONTRIBUTION, BUT BY THAT TIME THERE SHOULD BE A
WELL-ESTABLISHED NORTHWEST WIND. RIGHT NOW THE ONLY FLOODING WE/RE
EXPECTING WOULD BE ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING BELOW OUR ESTABLISHED
THRESHOLDS NEEDED FOR AN ADVISORY. HOWEVER...WE WILL BE KEEPING AN
EYE ON THE SITUATION AND ISSUE ANY ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS IF
NECESSARY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER/MIKETTA
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER/MIKETTA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIKETTA








000
FXUS61 KPHI 230004
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
804 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM SHOULD
BE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THEN MOVE
INTO NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
TOWARD OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE MID LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE WATERS OFF DELMARVA THIS
EVENING. IT SHOULD LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TO THE WATERS OFF NEW
JERSEY AND LONG ISLAND TOWARD MORNING. MEANWHILE, THE SURFACE LOW
WAS CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES OFF THE DELAWARE COAST. THAT FEATURE
IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT ABOUT 50 MILES TO THE EAST DURING THE COURSE
OF THE NIGHT.

IT WILL REMAIN OVERCAST AND CHILLY IN OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S. THE WIND
SHOULD BACK FROM THE NORTH TO THE NORTHWEST AT SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO
15 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S.

RAIN ROTATING AROUND THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION IN OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. SOMETIMES THE
RAIN WILL COME DOWN A LITTLE HEAVIER THAN AT OTHER TIMES, BUT MOST
OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA
DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT PERIOE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE ENTIRE
CWA SHOULD BE IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE, WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOES...AND WESTERN BERKS COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL LOW AND THE SURFACE LOW ARE FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD
THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD, AS WELL.

WE ARE EXPECTING THE RAIN TO BECOME SHOWERY AND END GRADUALLY FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY.

THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND IN THE 10 TO 20
MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. THE CLOUDS AND THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING ABOVE THE 50S ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE EXTENDED IS
PRETTY GOOD, BUT ONCE YOU GET PAST SATURDAY A MUCH LARGER SPREAD IS
SEEN. WE WILL, HOWEVER, BE TRANSITIONING FROM TROUGHINESS TO DEGREES
OF RIDGING THROUGH THE EXTENDED, STARTING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR
THE MOST PART WE MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY DRY LONGTERM FROM SATURDAY
ONWARD AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD TO OUR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN AND PULL AWAY TO OUR
NORTHEAST WITH JUST SOME LINGERING BACKSIDE SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES. THE OVERALL TREND ON FRIDAY IS FOR DRYING AS THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND BACK IN THE LOW TO MID-60S
WITH LESS CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND THE LACK OF SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY,
HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT STILL UNSURE IF WE WILL SEE A DRY PASSAGE WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THINKING THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO
MODIFY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND HOW MUCH INFLUENCE THE ENERGY WILL
HAVE AS IT COMES IN ON THE HEELS OF THE ONCE CUT-OFF LOW. WITH THE
LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE EXPECTED IT SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERALLY
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY
AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND, WHICH MEANS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A BREEZY DAY MAY
OCCUR AS MIXING DEEPENS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES TOWARD THE EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WARMING
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS TIME FRAME, WITH
JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW 12Z WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENERALLY, MVFR CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT IN OUR
REGION. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED, WITH SOME BREAKS IN BETWEEN.

THE CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT GRADUALLY INTO THE VFR CATEGORY
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO
BECOME MORE SHOWERY AND IT SHOULD END AT OUR TAF SITES BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.

THE WIND SHIFTED FROM NORTH TO NORTHWEST AFTER SUNSET, AND A
NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. SUSTAINED
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO
THE 20S OR HIGHER ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR. CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTH OF ABE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE,
LOWER ON SHOWERS.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. DRY COLD
FRONT PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 600 PM THURSDAY FOR OUR OCEAN
WATERS AND FOR THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY. THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THE SLOW MOVING LOW OFF THE COAST SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WIND OVER OUR WATERS WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS
ANTICIPATED. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE UPPER
PART OF DELAWARE BAY. GUSTS THERE SHOULD PEAK AROUND 30 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST, ONCE THE GALES
COME DOWN, AS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST
THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE RELAXING BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...SUB-SCA. WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...PERIOD OF SCA POSSIBLE BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RUNNING HIGH DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE STORM OFF THE
COAST AND THE APPROACHING NEW MOON. HIGH TIDES OCCUR THIS EVENING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT ALONG THE OCEAN, THEN AGAIN ON THURSDAY MORNING ALONG
THE OCEAN AROUND NOON. TOMMORROW/S HIGH TIDE HAS THE HIGHER
ASTRONOMICAL CONTRIBUTION, BUT BY THAT TIME THERE SHOULD BE A
WELL-ESTABLISHED NORTHWEST WIND. RIGHT NOW THE ONLY FLOODING WE/RE
EXPECTING WOULD BE ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING BELOW OUR ESTABLISHED
THRESHOLDS NEEDED FOR AN ADVISORY. HOWEVER...WE WILL BE KEEPING AN
EYE ON THE SITUATION AND ISSUE ANY ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS IF
NECESSARY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER/MIKETTA
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER/MIKETTA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIKETTA








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 222332
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
732 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...ALLOWING A HIGH TO
BUILD IN...RESULTING IN DRY AND WARM WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.  A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
730PM UPDATE...CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE FORECAST HEADACHE.
LATEST SAT PICS ARE SHOWING DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO INTRUDE IN THE
STRATOCU DECK IN NW PA AND NE OHIO. LATEST HIRES DATA IS
PRESENTING AN EXPANSION OF THIS DRY AIR OVERNIGHT. HAVING A HARD
TIME BELIEVING THIS AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO KEEP A
SATURATED LAYER AND CYCLONIC ROTATION CONTINUES IN THE MID AND
LOWER LEVELS OVERNIGHT. HAVE DECREASED CLOUDS JUST A BIT... BUT DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH IMPROVEMENT UNTIL LATER THU MORNING. TEMPS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED WITH LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

UPPER LOW...CENTERED OFF THE DELMARVA COAST...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES AWAY...MODELS INDICATE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN.

AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...WITH
MOST LOCATIONS DRY BEFORE SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.

USED A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN PUSH
ACROSS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA ON FRIDAY.

MODELS THEN INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY.  AFTER DRY WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT...HAVE
RE-INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS THRU ERLY
NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. A WKNG TROF IS PROGGED FOR A
MID WK PASSAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E. SEASONALLY COOL WKEND TEMPS
ARE EXP TO INCR TO ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT UNDER CONTINUED
CYCLONIC FLOW. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
12Z THURSDAY...AFTER WHICH VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW SITES SCATTERING OUT EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED AS
DRY AIR TRIES TO INTRUDE FROM THE NORTH...BUT FEEL THAT CLOUDS
WILL HOLD ON TOUGH.  N/NW WINDS WILL SLACKEN OFF THIS EVENING.

.AVIATION /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 222322 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
722 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...ALLOWING A HIGH TO
BUILD IN...RESULTING IN DRY AND WARM WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.  A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
730PM UPDATE...CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE FORECAST HEADACHE.
LATEST SAT PICS ARE SHOWING DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO INTRUDE IN THE
STRATOCU DECK IN NW PA AND NE OHIO. LATEST HIRES DATA IS
PRESENTING AN EXPANSION OF THIS DRY AIR OVERNIGHT. HAVING A HARD
TIME BELIEVING THIS AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO KEEP A
SATURATED LAYER AND CYCLONIC ROTATION CONTINUES IN THE MID AND
LOWER LEVELS OVERNIGHT. HAVE DECREASED CLOUDS JUST A BIT... BUT DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH IMPROVEMENT UNTIL LATER THU MORNING. TEMPS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED WITH LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

UPPER LOW...CENTERED OFF THE DELMARVA COAST...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES AWAY...MODELS INDICATE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN.

AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...WITH
MOST LOCATIONS DRY BEFORE SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.

USED A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN PUSH
ACROSS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA ON FRIDAY.

MODELS THEN INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY.  AFTER DRY WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT...HAVE
RE-INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS THRU ERLY
NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. A WKNG TROF IS PROGGED FOR A
MID WK PASSAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E. SEASONALLY COOL WKEND TEMPS
ARE EXP TO INCR TO ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TNGT WITH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. DRY AIR SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO BREAK
UP FROM THE NORTH AND WEST AFT 04Z.  CLEARING AT ZZV MAY BE EARLY
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...WINDS MAY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY FG AT A MINIMUM
AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF ZZV TAF FOR NOW.

.AVIATION /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 222134
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
534 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMING
TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS 1005 MB SFC LOW ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF THE
MD EASTERN SHORE...WITH A STACKED UPR LOW FOLLOWING SUIT AND
TRACKING SLOW NE JUST OFFSHORE. BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA...WHERE SOME TSTM
ACTIVITY IS STILL ONGOING. ELSEWHERE...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BRING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR...THOUGH THIS ACTIVITY HAS TRENDED WEAKER IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS. STILL SEEING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS OUR SW
ZONES...WHERE TEMPS WERE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE MID 60S. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT NE THRU TONIGHT...
LOCATING OFF THE NJ COAST BY 12Z THU. WILL KEEP HIGH POPS ACROSS
OUR EASTERN ZONES INTO THIS EVENING AS THE WRAP AROUND PCPN
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH. PCPN SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND LIGHTER
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR...WITH LIGHT RAIN BECOMING JUST
DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES BEFORE ENDING AFTER SUNSET. BY LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...REMAINING CHC POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO FAR EASTERN VA
AND ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN SHORE. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
ACROSS THE SW...WITH SKY CONDITIONS BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. REMAINING BREEZY TO
WINDY ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY NE SECTIONS. LOWS IN THE LOW 40S
WEST TO AROUND 50 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS QUICKLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM
THE OH VALLEY. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES THURSDAY...ALLOWING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WHERE GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
WILL OCCUR...15-25 MPH ELSEWHERE. A 20% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE. STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY
NE TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60
ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE UPPER 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND
SOUTH CENTRAL VA. MOSTLY CLEAR SW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE THU NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE
AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY
CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND MILDER TEMPS. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
SATURDAY FOR DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S TO
LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY
MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING
OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70 SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 70S BY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER IN THE PERIOD.
22/12Z GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE TRENDED SOMEWHAT WETTER AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
RATHER LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OFFSHORE AND SLOWLY
SHIFT TO THE NE THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS
WILL PREVAIL AS MOISTURE PULLED FROM THE SOUTH IS WRAPPED AROUND THE
STORM AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. DUE TO THE ADDED MOISTURE AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT...SCATTERED POCKETS OF RAIN/SHOWERS WILL LAST THROUGH
THE EVENING...ENDING THE LATEST OVER THE EASTERN SHORE. WITH THAT
BEING SAID...THERE IS EVIDENCE OF DRIER AIR BEING PULLED INTO THE
SYSTEM OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA WITH CEILINGS ~5K FT. EXPECT THIS
DRIER AIR TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE.
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT(~15-20KT) AND THU
AFTN(~20-25KT) AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING LOW AND A SURFACE HIGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT/THU MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE
TN RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. A NNW WIND SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND AVERAGE 25-30KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40KT THROUGH THE
EVENING (20-25KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT OVER THE RIVERS). SEAS
SHOULD BUILD TO 6-9FT N THROUGH S OUT NEAR 20NM...WITH 4-6FT SEAS
NEARSHORE...AND 3-5FT WAVES IN THE BAY. THE LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
LIFT NE LATE TONIGHT AND REACHES A POSITION OFF OF CAPE COD THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
THIS TIME...BUT SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN SCA CRITERIA. THE GRADIENT
FINALLY SLACKENS ENOUGH FOR SCA CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
EVENTUALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES IN VICINITY OF OCEAN CITY INLET WILL AVERAGE
AROUND 1.5FT ABOVE NORMAL DURING HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING AND
THURSDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS OCEAN CITY INLET
FALLING JUST BELOW MINOR THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING AND EXCEEDING
MINOR DURING HIGH TIDE THURSDAY MORNING AS THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE
WILL BE A FEW TENTHS HIGHER. WITH A NNW WIND...THE MAIN AREAS OF
CONCERN WILL BE ALONG THE SHORELINES OF ASSAWOMAN AND CHINCOTEAUGE
BAYS...AND THE ADJACENT OCEAN INLETS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-656-
     658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ633.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AJZ





000
FXUS61 KPHI 222047
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
447 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM SHOULD BE OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THEN MOVE INTO
NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TOWARD
OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HE MID LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE WATERS OFF VIRGINIA THIS
AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TO THE WATERS OFF NEW JERSEY
AND LONG ISLAND TOWARD MORNING. MEANWHILE, THE SURFACE LOW WAS
CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES OFF THE DELAWARE COAST. THAT FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT ABOUT 50 MILES TO THE EAST DURING THE COURSE OF
THE NIGHT.

IT WILL REMAIN OVERCAST AND CHILLY IN OUR REGION FOR TONIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S. THE WIND
SHOULD BACK FROM THE NORTH TO THE NORTHWEST AT SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO
15 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S.

THE RAIN THAT WAS ROTATING AROUND THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION IN OUR REGION DURING
THE NIGHT. IT SHOULD SETTLE PRIMARILY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN IN NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE DURING THE EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAINFALL IN COASTAL
AREAS OF NEW JERSEY THIS EVENING DEPENDING UPON HOW FAR WESTWARD THE
HEAVIER RAIN BANDS OFF THE COAST MOVE. OTHERWISE, RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE QUARTER TO HALF
INCH RANGE, WITH LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED IN
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL LOW AND THE SURFACE LOW ARE FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD
THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD, AS WELL.

WE ARE EXPECTING THE RAIN TO BECOME SHOWERY AND END GRADUALLY FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY.

THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND IN THE 10 TO 20
MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. THE CLOUDS AND THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING ABOVE THE 50S ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE EXTENDED IS
PRETTY GOOD, BUT ONCE YOU GET PAST SATURDAY A MUCH LARGER SPREAD IS
SEEN. WE WILL, HOWEVER, BE TRANSITIONING FROM TROUGHINESS TO DEGREES
OF RIDGING THROUGH THE EXTENDED, STARTING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR
THE MOST PART WE MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY DRY LONGTERM FROM SATURDAY
ONWARD AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD TO OUR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN AND PULL AWAY TO OUR
NORTHEAST WITH JUST SOME LINGERING BACKSIDE SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES. THE OVERALL TREND ON FRIDAY IS FOR DRYING AS THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND BACK IN THE LOW TO MID-60S
WITH LESS CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND THE LACK OF SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY,
HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT STILL UNSURE IF WE WILL SEE A DRY PASSAGE WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THINKING THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO
MODIFY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND HOW MUCH INFLUENCE THE ENERGY WILL
HAVE AS IT COMES IN ON THE HEELS OF THE ONCE CUT-OFF LOW. WITH THE
LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE EXPECTED IT SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERALLY
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY
AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND, WHICH MEANS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A BREEZY DAY MAY
OCCUR AS MIXING DEEPENS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES TOWARD THE EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WARMING
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS TIME FRAME, WITH
JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW 12Z WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENERALLY, MVFR CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT IN OUR
REGION. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIEST OF THE
RAINFALL BEING MAINLY IN NEW JERSEY.

THE CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT GRADUALLY INTO THE VFR CATEGORY
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO
BECOME MORE SHOWERY AND IT SHOULD END AT OUR TAF SITES BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO FAVOR THE NORTH INTO THIS EVENING, THEN IT
SHOULD BACK TO THE NORTHWEST FOR OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. SUSTAINED
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE
20S.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR. CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTH OF ABE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE,
LOWER ON SHOWERS.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. DRY COLD
FRONT PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 600 PM THURSDAY FOR OUR
OCEAN WATERS AND FOR THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY. THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THE SLOW MOVING LOW OFF THE COAST SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WIND OVER OUR WATERS WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS
ANTICIPATED. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE UPPER
PART OF DELAWARE BAY. GUSTS THERE SHOULD PEAK AROUND 30 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST, ONCE THE GALES
COME DOWN, AS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST
THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE RELAXING BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...SUB-SCA. WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...PERIOD OF SCA POSSIBLE BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RUNNING HIGH DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE STORM OFF THE
COAST AND THE APPROACHING NEW MOON. HIGH TIDES OCCUR THIS EVENING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT ALONG THE OCEAN, THEN AGAIN ON THURSDAY MORNING ALONG
THE OCEAN AROUND NOON. TOMMORROW/S HIGH TIDE HAS THE HIGHER
ASTRONOMICAL CONTRIBUTION, BUT BY THAT TIME THERE SHOULD BE A
WELL-ESTABLISHED NORTHWEST WIND. RIGHT NOW THE ONLY FLOODING WE/RE
EXPECTING WOULD BE ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING BELOW OUR ESTABLISHED
THRESHOLDS NEEDED FOR AN ADVISORY. HOWEVER...WE WILL BE KEEPING AN
EYE ON THE SITUATION AND ISSUE ANY ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS IF
NECESSARY.


&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIKETTA








000
FXUS61 KPHI 222000
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
400 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM SHOULD BE OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THEN MOVE INTO
NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TOWARD
OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HE MID LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE WATERS OFF VIRGINIA THIS
AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TO THE WATERS OFF NEW JERSEY
AND LONG ISLAND TOWARD MORNING. MEANWHILE, THE SURFACE LOW WAS
CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES OFF THE DELAWARE COAST. THAT FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT ABOUT 50 MILES TO THE EAST DURING THE COURSE OF
THE NIGHT.

IT WILL REMAIN OVERCAST AND CHILLY IN OUR REGION FOR TONIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S. THE WIND
SHOULD BACK FROM THE NORTH TO THE NORTHWEST AT SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO
15 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S.

THE RAIN THAT WAS ROTATING AROUND THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION IN OUR REGION DURING
THE NIGHT. IT SHOULD SETTLE PRIMARILY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN IN NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE DURING THE EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAINFALL IN COASTAL
AREAS OF NEW JERSEY THIS EVENING DEPENDING UPON HOW FAR WESTWARD THE
HEAVIER RAIN BANDS OFF THE COAST MOVE. OTHERWISE, RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE QUARTER TO HALF
INCH RANGE, WITH LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED IN
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL LOW AND THE SURFACE LOW ARE FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD
THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD, AS WELL.

WE ARE EXPECTING THE RAIN TO BECOME SHOWERY AND END GRADUALLY FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY.

THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND IN THE 10 TO 20
MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. THE CLOUDS AND THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING ABOVE THE 50S ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE EXTENDED IS
PRETTY GOOD, BUT ONCE YOU GET PAST SATURDAY A MUCH LARGER SPREAD IS
SEEN. WE WILL, HOWEVER, BE TRANSITIONING FROM TROUGHINESS TO DEGREES
OF RIDGING THROUGH THE EXTENDED, STARTING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR
THE MOST PART WE MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY DRY LONGTERM FROM SATURDAY
ONWARD AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD TO OUR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN AND PULL AWAY TO OUR
NORTHEAST WITH JUST SOME LINGERING BACKSIDE SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES. THE OVERALL TREND ON FRIDAY IS FOR DRYING AS THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND BACK IN THE LOW TO MID-60S
WITH LESS CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND THE LACK OF SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY,
HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT STILL UNSURE IF WE WILL SEE A DRY PASSAGE WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THINKING THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO
MODIFY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND HOW MUCH INFLUENCE THE ENERGY WILL
HAVE AS IT COMES IN ON THE HEELS OF THE ONCE CUT-OFF LOW. WITH THE
LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE EXPECTED IT SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERALLY
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY
AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND, WHICH MEANS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A BREEZY DAY MAY
OCCUR AS MIXING DEEPENS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES TOWARD THE EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WARMING
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS TIME FRAME, WITH
JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW 12Z WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENERALLY, MVFR CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT IN OUR
REGION. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIEST OF THE
RAINFALL BEING MAINLY IN NEW JERSEY.

THE CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT GRADUALLY INTO THE VFR CATEGORY
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO
BECOME MORE SHOWERY AND IT SHOULD END AT OUR TAF SITES BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO FAVOR THE NORTH INTO THIS EVENING, THEN IT
SHOULD BACK TO THE NORTHWEST FOR OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. SUSTAINED
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE
20S.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR. CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTH OF ABE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE,
LOWER ON SHOWERS.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. DRY COLD
FRONT PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR.


&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 600 PM THURSDAY FOR OUR
OCEAN WATERS AND FOR THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY. THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THE SLOW MOVING LOW OFF THE COAST SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WIND OVER OUR WATERS WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS
ANTICIPATED. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE UPPER
PART OF DELAWARE BAY. GUSTS THERE SHOULD PEAK AROUND 30 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST, ONCE THE GALES
COME DOWN, AS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST
THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE RELAXING BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...SUB-SCA. WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...PERIOD OF SCA POSSIBLE BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 222000
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMING
TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS 1005 MB SFC LOW ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF THE
MD EASTERN SHORE...WITH A STACKED UPR LOW FOLLOWING SUIT AND
TRACKING SLOW NE JUST OFFSHORE. BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA...WHERE SOME TSTM
ACTIVITY IS STILL ONGOING. ELSEWHERE...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BRING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR...THOUGH THIS ACTIVITY HAS TRENDED WEAKER IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS. STILL SEEING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS OUR SW
ZONES...WHERE TEMPS WERE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE MID 60S. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT NE THRU TONIGHT...
LOCATING OFF THE NJ COAST BY 12Z THU. WILL KEEP HIGH POPS ACROSS
OUR EASTERN ZONES INTO THIS EVENING AS THE WRAP AROUND PCPN
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH. PCPN SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND LIGHTER
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR...WITH LIGHT RAIN BECOMING JUST
DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES BEFORE ENDING AFTER SUNSET. BY LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...REMAINING CHC POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO FAR EASTERN VA
AND ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN SHORE. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
ACROSS THE SW...WITH SKY CONDITIONS BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. REMAINING BREEZY TO
WINDY ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY NE SECTIONS. LOWS IN THE LOW 40S
WEST TO AROUND 50 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS QUICKLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM
THE OH VALLEY. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES THURSDAY...ALLOWING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WHERE GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
WILL OCCUR...15-25 MPH ELSEWHERE. A 20% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE. STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY
NE TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60
ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE UPPER 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND
SOUTH CENTRAL VA. MOSTLY CLEAR SW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE THU NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE
AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY
CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND MILDER TEMPS. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
SATURDAY FOR DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S TO
LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY
MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING
OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70 SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 70S BY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER IN THE PERIOD.
22/12Z GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE TRENDED SOMEWHAT WETTER AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
RATHER LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OFFSHORE AND SLOWLY
SHIFT TO THE NE THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS
WILL PREVAIL AS MOISTURE PULLED FROM THE SOUTH IS WRAPPED AROUND THE
STORM AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. DUE TO THE ADDED MOISTURE AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT...SCATTERED POCKETS OF RAIN/SHOWERS WILL LAST THROUGH
THE EVENING...ENDING THE LATEST OVER THE EASTERN SHORE. WITH THAT
BEING SAID...THERE IS EVIDENCE OF DRIER AIR BEING PULLED INTO THE
SYSTEM OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA WITH CEILINGS ~5K FT. EXPECT THIS
DRIER AIR TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE.
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT(~15-20KT) AND THU
AFTN(~20-25KT) AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING LOW AND A SURFACE HIGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT/THU MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE
TN RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. A NNW WIND SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND AVERAGE 25-30KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40KT THROUGH THE
EVENING (20-25KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT OVER THE RIVERS). SEAS
SHOULD BUILD TO 6-9FT N THROUGH S OUT NEAR 20NM...WITH 4-6FT SEAS
NEARSHORE...AND 3-5FT WAVES IN THE BAY. THE LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
LIFT NE LATE TONIGHT AND REACHES A POSITION OFF OF CAPE COD THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
THIS TIME...BUT SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN SCA CRITERIA. THE GRADIENT
FINALLY SLACKENS ENOUGH FOR SCA CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
EVENTUALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-656-
     658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ633.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...AJZ







000
FXUS61 KPHI 222000
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
400 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM SHOULD BE OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THEN MOVE INTO
NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TOWARD
OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HE MID LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE WATERS OFF VIRGINIA THIS
AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TO THE WATERS OFF NEW JERSEY
AND LONG ISLAND TOWARD MORNING. MEANWHILE, THE SURFACE LOW WAS
CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES OFF THE DELAWARE COAST. THAT FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT ABOUT 50 MILES TO THE EAST DURING THE COURSE OF
THE NIGHT.

IT WILL REMAIN OVERCAST AND CHILLY IN OUR REGION FOR TONIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S. THE WIND
SHOULD BACK FROM THE NORTH TO THE NORTHWEST AT SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO
15 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S.

THE RAIN THAT WAS ROTATING AROUND THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION IN OUR REGION DURING
THE NIGHT. IT SHOULD SETTLE PRIMARILY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN IN NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE DURING THE EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAINFALL IN COASTAL
AREAS OF NEW JERSEY THIS EVENING DEPENDING UPON HOW FAR WESTWARD THE
HEAVIER RAIN BANDS OFF THE COAST MOVE. OTHERWISE, RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE QUARTER TO HALF
INCH RANGE, WITH LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED IN
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL LOW AND THE SURFACE LOW ARE FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD
THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD, AS WELL.

WE ARE EXPECTING THE RAIN TO BECOME SHOWERY AND END GRADUALLY FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY.

THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND IN THE 10 TO 20
MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. THE CLOUDS AND THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING ABOVE THE 50S ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE EXTENDED IS
PRETTY GOOD, BUT ONCE YOU GET PAST SATURDAY A MUCH LARGER SPREAD IS
SEEN. WE WILL, HOWEVER, BE TRANSITIONING FROM TROUGHINESS TO DEGREES
OF RIDGING THROUGH THE EXTENDED, STARTING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR
THE MOST PART WE MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY DRY LONGTERM FROM SATURDAY
ONWARD AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD TO OUR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN AND PULL AWAY TO OUR
NORTHEAST WITH JUST SOME LINGERING BACKSIDE SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES. THE OVERALL TREND ON FRIDAY IS FOR DRYING AS THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND BACK IN THE LOW TO MID-60S
WITH LESS CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND THE LACK OF SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY,
HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT STILL UNSURE IF WE WILL SEE A DRY PASSAGE WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THINKING THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO
MODIFY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND HOW MUCH INFLUENCE THE ENERGY WILL
HAVE AS IT COMES IN ON THE HEELS OF THE ONCE CUT-OFF LOW. WITH THE
LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE EXPECTED IT SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERALLY
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY
AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND, WHICH MEANS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A BREEZY DAY MAY
OCCUR AS MIXING DEEPENS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES TOWARD THE EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WARMING
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS TIME FRAME, WITH
JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW 12Z WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENERALLY, MVFR CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT IN OUR
REGION. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIEST OF THE
RAINFALL BEING MAINLY IN NEW JERSEY.

THE CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT GRADUALLY INTO THE VFR CATEGORY
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO
BECOME MORE SHOWERY AND IT SHOULD END AT OUR TAF SITES BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO FAVOR THE NORTH INTO THIS EVENING, THEN IT
SHOULD BACK TO THE NORTHWEST FOR OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. SUSTAINED
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE
20S.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR. CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTH OF ABE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE,
LOWER ON SHOWERS.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. DRY COLD
FRONT PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR.


&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 600 PM THURSDAY FOR OUR
OCEAN WATERS AND FOR THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY. THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THE SLOW MOVING LOW OFF THE COAST SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WIND OVER OUR WATERS WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS
ANTICIPATED. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE UPPER
PART OF DELAWARE BAY. GUSTS THERE SHOULD PEAK AROUND 30 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST, ONCE THE GALES
COME DOWN, AS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST
THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE RELAXING BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...SUB-SCA. WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...PERIOD OF SCA POSSIBLE BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 222000
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMING
TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS 1005 MB SFC LOW ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF THE
MD EASTERN SHORE...WITH A STACKED UPR LOW FOLLOWING SUIT AND
TRACKING SLOW NE JUST OFFSHORE. BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA...WHERE SOME TSTM
ACTIVITY IS STILL ONGOING. ELSEWHERE...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BRING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR...THOUGH THIS ACTIVITY HAS TRENDED WEAKER IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS. STILL SEEING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS OUR SW
ZONES...WHERE TEMPS WERE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE MID 60S. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT NE THRU TONIGHT...
LOCATING OFF THE NJ COAST BY 12Z THU. WILL KEEP HIGH POPS ACROSS
OUR EASTERN ZONES INTO THIS EVENING AS THE WRAP AROUND PCPN
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH. PCPN SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND LIGHTER
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR...WITH LIGHT RAIN BECOMING JUST
DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES BEFORE ENDING AFTER SUNSET. BY LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...REMAINING CHC POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO FAR EASTERN VA
AND ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN SHORE. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
ACROSS THE SW...WITH SKY CONDITIONS BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. REMAINING BREEZY TO
WINDY ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY NE SECTIONS. LOWS IN THE LOW 40S
WEST TO AROUND 50 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS QUICKLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM
THE OH VALLEY. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES THURSDAY...ALLOWING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WHERE GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
WILL OCCUR...15-25 MPH ELSEWHERE. A 20% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE. STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY
NE TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60
ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE UPPER 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND
SOUTH CENTRAL VA. MOSTLY CLEAR SW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE THU NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE
AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY
CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND MILDER TEMPS. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
SATURDAY FOR DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S TO
LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY
MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING
OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70 SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 70S BY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER IN THE PERIOD.
22/12Z GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE TRENDED SOMEWHAT WETTER AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
RATHER LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OFFSHORE AND SLOWLY
SHIFT TO THE NE THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS
WILL PREVAIL AS MOISTURE PULLED FROM THE SOUTH IS WRAPPED AROUND THE
STORM AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. DUE TO THE ADDED MOISTURE AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT...SCATTERED POCKETS OF RAIN/SHOWERS WILL LAST THROUGH
THE EVENING...ENDING THE LATEST OVER THE EASTERN SHORE. WITH THAT
BEING SAID...THERE IS EVIDENCE OF DRIER AIR BEING PULLED INTO THE
SYSTEM OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA WITH CEILINGS ~5K FT. EXPECT THIS
DRIER AIR TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE.
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT(~15-20KT) AND THU
AFTN(~20-25KT) AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING LOW AND A SURFACE HIGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT/THU MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE
TN RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. A NNW WIND SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND AVERAGE 25-30KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40KT THROUGH THE
EVENING (20-25KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT OVER THE RIVERS). SEAS
SHOULD BUILD TO 6-9FT N THROUGH S OUT NEAR 20NM...WITH 4-6FT SEAS
NEARSHORE...AND 3-5FT WAVES IN THE BAY. THE LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
LIFT NE LATE TONIGHT AND REACHES A POSITION OFF OF CAPE COD THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
THIS TIME...BUT SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN SCA CRITERIA. THE GRADIENT
FINALLY SLACKENS ENOUGH FOR SCA CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
EVENTUALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-656-
     658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ633.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...AJZ







000
FXUS61 KLWX 221852
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
252 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FRIDAY AND REMAIN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE OCEAN EAST OF THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH OR ORGANIZATION IN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT THE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE NE TOWARDS CAPE COD.
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AND
IMPACTS JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE CWA EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
PORTIONS OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. RAIN SHIELD WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LIGHT RAIN
IS LIKELY PERSIST IN THE WASHINGTON DC METRO AND AREAS TO THE
NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. N-NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25
MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW AND COOLER AIR ALOFT ADVECTS INTO
THE REGION. LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 50S...AND
AROUND 60 IN ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT POSSIBLY LEFTOVER RAIN
NEAR CHESAPEAKE BAY AND UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION OVER THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS. SOME SNOW MAY MIX WITH RAIN IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT PRECIPITATION AS THE AREA
UNDER THE INVERSION WILL BE SHALLOW. GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE...BUT MAY DIMINISH FOR A FEW HRS OVERNIGHT IF AN
INVERSION IS ABLE TO DEVELOP. HIGHEST 925MB JET WILL BE PRIMARILY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...SO NOT EXPECTING WIND ADVISORY
GUSTS IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LOW CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY PULL AWAY THURSDAY. NOT EXPECTING
RAIN...EXCEPT POSSIBLE UPSLOPE RAIN OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.
CLOUD SHIELD EXPECTED TO STAY IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BUT CLEARING EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN COUNTIES. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...SO N-NW
WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. HIGH TEMPS
PRIMARILY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

COASTAL LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. CLEARING EXPECTED OVER DC/BALTIMORE
AREAS. WINDS DIMINISH WITH DECOUPLING. LOWS IN THE 40S...AND UPPER
30S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERALL...THE LONG TERM WILL BE A RATHER QUIET PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
EASE. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST RIDGES INTO
THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSING OVERHEAD COULD LEAD TO
SOME AN INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE TROUGH
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER AT THE SURFACE.

A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE HUDSON BAY
WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO BE A DRY COLD
FRONT...WITH ONLY A COUPLE DEGREE DROP IN TEMPERATURES RESULTING. IT
IS WORTH NOTING THAT MODELS ARE TRENDING THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF PRECIP
CLOSER TO THE AREA...BUT AT THIS POINT IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO STAY
TO OUR NORTH SO NO POPS IN THE FORECAST. SUNDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AGGRESSIVELY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SHOULD
BE OVERHEAD BY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE AS
THIS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TUESDAY AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
FILLS IN. MANY PLACES COULD BE INTO THE 70S ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
MAY APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.



&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF BY LATE AFTERNOON AT DC AREA
TERMINALS. BALTIMORE AIRPORTS WILL BE LAST TO SEE RAIN END LATE
THIS EVENING. PRIMARILY MVFR CONDS...BUT PDS OF VFR WHEN LOWER
CLOUDS SCATTER. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT. GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF AVIATION HAZARDS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
PERIODIC RAIN TODAY. SCA THROUGH TODAY AS NWLY FLOW INCREASES.
GALES OVER THE SRN MD WATERS AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES. ELECTED NOT TO
ISSUE A GALE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS AS HIGHEST WINDS ALOFT NOT
LIKELY TO MIX DOWN...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED DURING THE DAY FRIDAY
AS GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY EASY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING INTO THE AREA. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FOR BREEZY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE
OF A DRY COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>532-
     535-536-538>540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ533-
     534-537-541-543.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ533-534-537-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KCS
NEAR TERM...KCS
SHORT TERM...KCS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...KCS/CEB
MARINE...KCS/CEB









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221820
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
220 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
SLOW WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS 1007 MB SFC LOW JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SHORE. UPR CLOSED LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER HAMPTON ROADS AND WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE THRU 18Z. BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS ACROSS THE MOUTH
OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND OFFSHORE JUST PAST 20 NM. LATEST SRM
PRODUCTS FROM THE LOCAL 88D`S SHOW SOME WEAK ROTATION WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS OFFSHORE...AND WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF WE HEAR
ABOUT A WATERSPOUT OR TWO. ANOTHER BAND OF RAIN IS NOW MOVING
SOUTH ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHICH WILL ALLOW RAIN TO LAST INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN THESE AREAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN VA INCLUDING HAMPTON ROADS. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ACROSS OUR SW COUNTIES WHERE SOME SUN WILL CONTINUE TO
PEAK THROUGH THE CLOUDS. HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A COUPLE MORE
DEGREES FOR TODAY AS HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 DEG IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS OFFSHORE THIS AFTN...DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN TO 20% OR LESS
OVER SW ZONES BY 21Z...WHILE FAVORABLE LIFT AND MOISTURE PERSIST
FARTHER EAST. THIS SEEMS TO BE SUPPORTED WELL BY LATEST HI RES
MODELS. WILL MAINTAIN 60-80% POPS OVER THE ERN 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE
CWA THROUGH 21Z. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK UP FROM THE SW LATER
IN THE AFTN...MAY SEE SOME PEEKS OF SUN ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL VA BY
MID-LATE AFTN BUT OVERALL IT WILL STAY BKN/OVC. OTHER FEATURE TO
NOTE WILL BE THE INCREASING NW WINDS BY AFTN AS THE SFC LOW
INTENSIFIES FAIRLY RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST. GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY LATER AFTN/EVENING (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST).

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE TONIGHT. HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ERN SHORE THIS EVENING...GENLY ONLY 20%-30%
POPS OR LOWER ELSEWHERE AFTER 00Z. DECREASING CLOUDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA/NC OVERNIGHT. REMAINING BREEZY TO
WINDY ESP NE SECTIONS. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 40S ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95 TO THE LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT IN BETWEEN SUB 1000 MB SFC
LOW OFF LONG ISLAND AND 1020 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY.
NAM SOLUTION IS OUTLIER WITH RESPECT TO IT`S LOCATION OF THE SFC
LOW WELL NORTH OF OTHER MODELS ON THU. THUS...NAM WINDS ARE
LIGHTER DUE TO A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT. FAVOR WINDS CLOSER TO A
GFS/ECMWF BLEND...WHICH YIELDS  BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACRS THE ERN SHORE...25-30 MPH ELSEWHERE. A
20%-30% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE.
STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR
SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY N/E TO PARTLY SUNNY S/W (MAYBE
MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE FAR SW). HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 F
ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE UPPER 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND
SOUTH CENTRAL VA. MOSTLY CLEAR SW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE THU NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND
MILDER TEMPS. HIGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS WELL TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY
MIDWEEK. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY (PERHAPS WARMER TUESDAY). LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OFFSHORE AND SLOWLY
SHIFT TO THE NE THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS
WILL PREVAIL AS MOISTURE PULLED FROM THE SOUTH IS WRAPPED AROUND THE
STORM AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. DUE TO THE ADDED MOISTURE AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT...SCATTERED POCKETS OF RAIN/SHOWERS WILL LAST THROUGH
THE EVENING...ENDING THE LATEST OVER THE EASTERN SHORE. WITH THAT
BEING SAID...THERE IS EVIDENCE OF DRIER AIR BEING PULLED INTO THE
SYSTEM OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA WITH CEILINGS ~5K FT. EXPECT THIS
DRIER AIR TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE.
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT(~15-20KT) AND THU
AFTN(~20-25KT) AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING LOW AND A SURFACE HIGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT/THU MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE
TN RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.MARINE...
LO PRES WILL FORM OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND
CANADIAN MARITIME CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO ARND 30 KT THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG.
THEN...FM THIS EVENG THRU THU AFTN...GUSTS TO ARND 35 KT WILL BE
LIKELY OVR AT LEAST THE CHES BAY ZNS AND ON THE CSTL WTRS FM
FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LGT. THUS...HAVE ISSUED SCA THIS
MORNING/AFTN RAMPING UP TO A GALE WARNING IN THESE LOCATIONS FOR THIS
EVENG INTO/THRU THU AFTN. OTHRWISE...EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS OVR THE
ENTIRE WTRS FM THIS MORNG INTO EARLY FRI MORNG...AS STRNG LO PRES
IS SLOW TO MOVE AWAY TO THE NE. WITH THE FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FM
THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-7 FT AND TIDAL
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS
SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-656-
     658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ633.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...JDM/LKB
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...TMG







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221818
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
220 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...ALLOWING A HIGH TO
BUILD IN...RESULTING IN DRY AND WARM WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.  A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW...CENTERED OFF THE DELMARVA COAST...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES AWAY...MODELS INDICATE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN.

AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...WITH
MOST LOCATIONS DRY BEFORE SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.

USED A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN PUSH
ACROSS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA ON FRIDAY.

MODELS THEN INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY.  AFTER DRY WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT...HAVE
RE-INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR
SATURDAY.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS THRU ERLY
NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. A WKNG TROF IS PROGGED FOR A
MID WK PASSAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E. SEASONALLY COOL WKEND TEMPS
ARE EXP TO INCR TO ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TNGT WITH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. DRY AIR SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO BREAK
UP FROM THE NORTH AND WEST AFT 04Z.  CLEARING AT ZZV MAY BE EARLY
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...WINDS MAY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY FG AT A MINIMUM
AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF ZZV TAF FOR NOW.

.AVIATION /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

JSH










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221738
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
137 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...ALLOWING A HIGH TO
BUILD IN...RESULTING IN DRY AND WARM WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.  A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MINOR TWEAKS TO THE NR TERM GRIDS BASED ON OBS AND RADAR FOR THE
PRE DAWN UPDT.

PREVIOUS DISC...MATURATION OF LOW PRES IS STILL MDL PROGGED OVR
THE COAST BY DAYS END AND OVRALL SBSDNC WL GRADUALLY SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVR MOST OF THE UPR OH VALLEY AREA...ALTHOUGH
SLGT SHWR CHCS MAY LINGER INTO EVE OVR THE RIDGES WITH THE SHARPER
UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE.

COLD TEMPS WL LINGER THOUGH AS COLD...TO NEUTRAL ADVCTN CONTS ON
THE REAR FLANK OF THE EXITING LOW. TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES UNDR THE
AVGS WERE MASSAGED USING SREF MEANS AND BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHRTWV RIDGING IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS RMNG PCPN CHCS TNGT...AND
INTO FRIDAY.

THEREAFTER...NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF HAVE CONSISTENTLY DEPICTED THE
APCH...AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK SHRTWV IN NW FLOW ON FRIDAY. GIVEN
DEPICTIONS OF A LTD MID LVL MSTR FIELD...CAPPED LOW LVLS AFTR MID
LVL WARMING...AND AN ABSENT PCPN SPPRTG OMEGA FIELD...HAVE DECIDED
TO ELIMINATE THE ALREADY SLGT POP FORECAST IN FAVOR A STRENGTHENING
DRY TREND.

ANOTHER SUCH DISTURBANCE IS PROJECTED FOR A SATURDAY CROSSING...BUT
THE RAIN POTENTIAL LKS EQUALLY SLIM GIVEN SIMILIAR LIMITATIONS AS
FRIDAY AS WELL AS A MORE NWD TRACK OF THE LOW CNTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS FEATURE MODERATION TWD THE SEASONAL AVGS...FORECAST
FOR WAS TWEAKED AGAIN USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS AND SREF MEANS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS THRU ERLY
NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. A WKNG TROF IS PROGGED FOR A
MID WK PASSAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E. SEASONALLY COOL WKEND TEMPS
ARE EXP TO INCR TO ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NTO TNGT WITH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. DRY AIR SHOULD ALLIOW CLOUDS TO BREAK
UP FROM THE NORTH AND WEST AFT 04Z.  CLEARING AT ZZV MAY BE EARLY
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...WINDS MAY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY FG AT A MINIMUM
AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF ZZV TAF FOR NOW.

.AVIATION /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

JSH/RLX








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221738
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
137 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...ALLOWING A HIGH TO
BUILD IN...RESULTING IN DRY AND WARM WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.  A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MINOR TWEAKS TO THE NR TERM GRIDS BASED ON OBS AND RADAR FOR THE
PRE DAWN UPDT.

PREVIOUS DISC...MATURATION OF LOW PRES IS STILL MDL PROGGED OVR
THE COAST BY DAYS END AND OVRALL SBSDNC WL GRADUALLY SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVR MOST OF THE UPR OH VALLEY AREA...ALTHOUGH
SLGT SHWR CHCS MAY LINGER INTO EVE OVR THE RIDGES WITH THE SHARPER
UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE.

COLD TEMPS WL LINGER THOUGH AS COLD...TO NEUTRAL ADVCTN CONTS ON
THE REAR FLANK OF THE EXITING LOW. TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES UNDR THE
AVGS WERE MASSAGED USING SREF MEANS AND BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHRTWV RIDGING IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS RMNG PCPN CHCS TNGT...AND
INTO FRIDAY.

THEREAFTER...NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF HAVE CONSISTENTLY DEPICTED THE
APCH...AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK SHRTWV IN NW FLOW ON FRIDAY. GIVEN
DEPICTIONS OF A LTD MID LVL MSTR FIELD...CAPPED LOW LVLS AFTR MID
LVL WARMING...AND AN ABSENT PCPN SPPRTG OMEGA FIELD...HAVE DECIDED
TO ELIMINATE THE ALREADY SLGT POP FORECAST IN FAVOR A STRENGTHENING
DRY TREND.

ANOTHER SUCH DISTURBANCE IS PROJECTED FOR A SATURDAY CROSSING...BUT
THE RAIN POTENTIAL LKS EQUALLY SLIM GIVEN SIMILIAR LIMITATIONS AS
FRIDAY AS WELL AS A MORE NWD TRACK OF THE LOW CNTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS FEATURE MODERATION TWD THE SEASONAL AVGS...FORECAST
FOR WAS TWEAKED AGAIN USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS AND SREF MEANS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS THRU ERLY
NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. A WKNG TROF IS PROGGED FOR A
MID WK PASSAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E. SEASONALLY COOL WKEND TEMPS
ARE EXP TO INCR TO ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NTO TNGT WITH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. DRY AIR SHOULD ALLIOW CLOUDS TO BREAK
UP FROM THE NORTH AND WEST AFT 04Z.  CLEARING AT ZZV MAY BE EARLY
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...WINDS MAY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY FG AT A MINIMUM
AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF ZZV TAF FOR NOW.

.AVIATION /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

JSH/RLX








000
FXUS61 KPHI 221544
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1144 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT SLOWLY
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM SHOULD
BE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THEN MOVE
INTO NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
TOWARD OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE MID LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE WATERS OFF VIRGINIA AROUND
1130 AM AND THE SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES TO THE
EAST NORTHEAST. THE MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EAST
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AS THE SURFACE REFLECTION LIFTS SLOWLY TO THE
NORTH NORTHEAST.

THE PRECIPITATION STREAM THAT WAS FEEDING INTO CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY, SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND THE UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WAS IN THE PROCESS OF PIVOTING AROUND
THE LOW LATE THIS MORNING. IT HAD BECOME LESS FOCUSED THAN IT WAS
DURING THE NIGHT AND RAINFALL RATES OVER LAND CONTINUED TO
DECREASE.

AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY OUT TO SEA, THE ORIENTATION OF THE
PRECIPITATION FEED IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST OVER OUR REGION AND IT SHOULD SETTLE OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S TODAY DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN ALONG WITH A BRISK NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW TO MAKE A MOVE
TO THE NORTH.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. MAINLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH HEAVIER RAIN POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE
UPPER LOW.

SOME COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BUT WE WILL
STILL HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. IT WILL FEEL COLDER AS THE WINDS
REMAIN UP THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A POTENT CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WILL TAKE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WITH IT AS IT TRACKS TOWARD
THE NOVA SCOTIA AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AS ENERGY DRIVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, A BUILDING RIDGE OCCURS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS
WILL PROBABLY FORCE ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DOWN INTO THE
NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER AS IT CLOSES OFF IT LOOKS TO
BE TO OUR NORTHEAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THEN
ARRIVES IN THE EAST MONDAY, HOWEVER WITH THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW
PATTERN THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRIVING EASTWARD
LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN BLENDED THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE IN WITH
CONTINUITY. SOME TWEAKS WERE THEN MADE AFTER ADDITIONAL
COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF A POTENT CLOSED LOW IS
FORECAST TO BE JUST TO OUR EAST THURSDAY, BUT THEN SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY, THIS WILL TAKE A STRENGTHENING
SURFACE LOW WITH IT. WE WILL MAINTAIN MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
CLOSED LOW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AREAS THURSDAY. THE MAIN FORCING THOUGH LOOKS TO
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. THEREFORE, SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
HIGHEST /LIKELY/ POPS ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE MORNING WITH A
DECREASE SOUTHWARD AND DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS DRYING
SHOULD WORK IN DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW
AND SURFACE LOW SHIFT FARTHER TO OUR NORTHEAST. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT COMBINED WITH A STRONGER WIND FIELD AND DEEPER MIXING
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS, WITH SOME
DECREASE BOTH NIGHTS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY
RESULT IN SOME CLOUDS FOR A TIME.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH
SATURDAY, HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER A LIMITED AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERALLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND,
WHICH MEANS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DOWN INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A BREEZY DAY MAY OCCUR AS MIXING
DEEPENS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES TOWARD THE
EAST ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WARMING
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS TIME FRAME, WITH
JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW 00Z WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS SHOULD FAVOR THE MVFR RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
(GENERALLY 1000 TO 2000 FEET) WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. CEILINGS MAY
BRIEFLY RISE INTO THE VFR CATEGORY OR FALL TO IFR, ESPECIALLY IN
ANY AREAS OF MODERATE RAINFALL. A GRADUAL LIFTING OF CEILINGS IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE CONTINUATION OF PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN.

THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO FAVOR THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST FOR TODAY
WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 8 TO 14 KNOTS AND GUSTS INTO THE 20S.
THE WIND DIRECTION IS FORECAST TO BACK TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST
FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...TIMES OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME SHOWERS, ENDING IN
THE EVENING AND BECOME VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 KNOTS, DIMINISHING SOME AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
25 KNOTS, DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE IS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE UPPER PART OF DELAWARE
BAY AND A GALE WARNING ELSEWHERE IN OUR MARINE AREA.

TODAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS TODAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH
NORTHEAST EARLY BEFORE BECOMING MORE NORTH NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL
BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS ON THE OCEAN FRONT AND
LOWER DELAWARE BAY. THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY WILL SEE SIMILAR WINDS
WITH GUSTS IN THE LOWER 30 KNOT RANGE. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO
7 FEET ON THE OCEAN FRONT.

TONIGHT...THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES ON THE OCEAN AND LOWER BAY
TONIGHT. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT AND THEN START TO DIMINISH A
BIT TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING AS THE GRADIENT STARTS TO LIGHTEN UP.
SEAS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN OCEAN
ZONES AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY FOR THE MORNING AS GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS HANG ON SOME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES
FOR UPPER DELAWARE BAY, AND ONE WILL BE NEEDED ELSEWHERE FOLLOWING
THE GALE WARNING.

FRIDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE
ANTICIPATED ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN ZONES AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND MIXING CONTINUES. THIS SHOULD DECREASE AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE FLOW SHOULD INCREASE SOME SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THIS COULD RESULT IN GUSTS
TO ABOUT 25 KNOTS FOR A TIME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>452.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ431-453>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 221544
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1144 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT SLOWLY
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM SHOULD
BE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THEN MOVE
INTO NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
TOWARD OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE MID LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE WATERS OFF VIRGINIA AROUND
1130 AM AND THE SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES TO THE
EAST NORTHEAST. THE MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EAST
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AS THE SURFACE REFLECTION LIFTS SLOWLY TO THE
NORTH NORTHEAST.

THE PRECIPITATION STREAM THAT WAS FEEDING INTO CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY, SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND THE UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WAS IN THE PROCESS OF PIVOTING AROUND
THE LOW LATE THIS MORNING. IT HAD BECOME LESS FOCUSED THAN IT WAS
DURING THE NIGHT AND RAINFALL RATES OVER LAND CONTINUED TO
DECREASE.

AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY OUT TO SEA, THE ORIENTATION OF THE
PRECIPITATION FEED IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST OVER OUR REGION AND IT SHOULD SETTLE OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S TODAY DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN ALONG WITH A BRISK NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW TO MAKE A MOVE
TO THE NORTH.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. MAINLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH HEAVIER RAIN POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE
UPPER LOW.

SOME COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BUT WE WILL
STILL HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. IT WILL FEEL COLDER AS THE WINDS
REMAIN UP THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A POTENT CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WILL TAKE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WITH IT AS IT TRACKS TOWARD
THE NOVA SCOTIA AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AS ENERGY DRIVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, A BUILDING RIDGE OCCURS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS
WILL PROBABLY FORCE ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DOWN INTO THE
NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER AS IT CLOSES OFF IT LOOKS TO
BE TO OUR NORTHEAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THEN
ARRIVES IN THE EAST MONDAY, HOWEVER WITH THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW
PATTERN THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRIVING EASTWARD
LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN BLENDED THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE IN WITH
CONTINUITY. SOME TWEAKS WERE THEN MADE AFTER ADDITIONAL
COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF A POTENT CLOSED LOW IS
FORECAST TO BE JUST TO OUR EAST THURSDAY, BUT THEN SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY, THIS WILL TAKE A STRENGTHENING
SURFACE LOW WITH IT. WE WILL MAINTAIN MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
CLOSED LOW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AREAS THURSDAY. THE MAIN FORCING THOUGH LOOKS TO
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. THEREFORE, SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
HIGHEST /LIKELY/ POPS ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE MORNING WITH A
DECREASE SOUTHWARD AND DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS DRYING
SHOULD WORK IN DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW
AND SURFACE LOW SHIFT FARTHER TO OUR NORTHEAST. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT COMBINED WITH A STRONGER WIND FIELD AND DEEPER MIXING
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS, WITH SOME
DECREASE BOTH NIGHTS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY
RESULT IN SOME CLOUDS FOR A TIME.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH
SATURDAY, HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER A LIMITED AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERALLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND,
WHICH MEANS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DOWN INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A BREEZY DAY MAY OCCUR AS MIXING
DEEPENS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES TOWARD THE
EAST ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WARMING
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS TIME FRAME, WITH
JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW 00Z WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS SHOULD FAVOR THE MVFR RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
(GENERALLY 1000 TO 2000 FEET) WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. CEILINGS MAY
BRIEFLY RISE INTO THE VFR CATEGORY OR FALL TO IFR, ESPECIALLY IN
ANY AREAS OF MODERATE RAINFALL. A GRADUAL LIFTING OF CEILINGS IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE CONTINUATION OF PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN.

THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO FAVOR THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST FOR TODAY
WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 8 TO 14 KNOTS AND GUSTS INTO THE 20S.
THE WIND DIRECTION IS FORECAST TO BACK TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST
FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...TIMES OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME SHOWERS, ENDING IN
THE EVENING AND BECOME VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 KNOTS, DIMINISHING SOME AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
25 KNOTS, DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE IS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE UPPER PART OF DELAWARE
BAY AND A GALE WARNING ELSEWHERE IN OUR MARINE AREA.

TODAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS TODAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH
NORTHEAST EARLY BEFORE BECOMING MORE NORTH NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL
BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS ON THE OCEAN FRONT AND
LOWER DELAWARE BAY. THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY WILL SEE SIMILAR WINDS
WITH GUSTS IN THE LOWER 30 KNOT RANGE. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO
7 FEET ON THE OCEAN FRONT.

TONIGHT...THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES ON THE OCEAN AND LOWER BAY
TONIGHT. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT AND THEN START TO DIMINISH A
BIT TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING AS THE GRADIENT STARTS TO LIGHTEN UP.
SEAS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN OCEAN
ZONES AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY FOR THE MORNING AS GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS HANG ON SOME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES
FOR UPPER DELAWARE BAY, AND ONE WILL BE NEEDED ELSEWHERE FOLLOWING
THE GALE WARNING.

FRIDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE
ANTICIPATED ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN ZONES AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND MIXING CONTINUES. THIS SHOULD DECREASE AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE FLOW SHOULD INCREASE SOME SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THIS COULD RESULT IN GUSTS
TO ABOUT 25 KNOTS FOR A TIME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>452.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ431-453>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221534
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1134 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
SLOW WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS 1007 MB SFC LOW JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SHORE. UPR CLOSED LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER HAMPTON ROADS AND WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE THRU 18Z. BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS ACROSS THE MOUTH
OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND OFFSHORE JUST PAST 20 NM. LATEST SRM
PRODUCTS FROM THE LOCAL 88D`S SHOW SOME WEAK ROTATION WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS OFFSHORE...AND WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF WE HEAR
ABOUT A WATERSPOUT OR TWO. ANOTHER BAND OF RAIN IS NOW MOVING
SOUTH ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHICH WILL ALLOW RAIN TO LAST INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN THESE AREAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN VA INCLUDING HAMPTON ROADS. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ACROSS OUR SW COUNTIES WHERE SOME SUN WILL CONTINUE TO
PEAK THROUGH THE CLOUDS. HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A COUPLE MORE
DEGREES FOR TODAY AS HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 DEG IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS OFFSHORE THIS AFTN...DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN TO 20% OR LESS
OVER SW ZONES BY 21Z...WHILE FAVORABLE LIFT AND MOISTURE PERSIST
FARTHER EAST. THIS SEEMS TO BE SUPPORTED WELL BY LATEST HI RES
MODELS. WILL MAINTAIN 60-80% POPS OVER THE ERN 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE
CWA THROUGH 21Z. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK UP FROM THE SW LATER
IN THE AFTN...MAY SEE SOME PEEKS OF SUN ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL VA BY
MID-LATE AFTN BUT OVERALL IT WILL STAY BKN/OVC. OTHER FEATURE TO
NOTE WILL BE THE INCREASING NW WINDS BY AFTN AS THE SFC LOW
INTENSIFIES FAIRLY RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST. GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY LATER AFTN/EVENING (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST).

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE TONIGHT. HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ERN SHORE THIS EVENING...GENLY ONLY 20%-30%
POPS OR LOWER ELSEWHERE AFTER 00Z. DECREASING CLOUDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA/NC OVERNIGHT. REMAINING BREEZY TO
WINDY ESP NE SECTIONS. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 40S ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95 TO THE LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT IN BETWEEN SUB 1000 MB SFC
LOW OFF LONG ISLAND AND 1020 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY.
NAM SOLUTION IS OUTLIER WITH RESPECT TO IT`S LOCATION OF THE SFC
LOW WELL NORTH OF OTHER MODELS ON THU. THUS...NAM WINDS ARE
LIGHTER DUE TO A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT. FAVOR WINDS CLOSER TO A
GFS/ECMWF BLEND...WHICH YIELDS  BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACRS THE ERN SHORE...25-30 MPH ELSEWHERE. A
20%-30% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE.
STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR
SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY N/E TO PARTLY SUNNY S/W (MAYBE
MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE FAR SW). HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 F
ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE UPPER 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND
SOUTH CENTRAL VA. MOSTLY CLEAR SW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE THU NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND
MILDER TEMPS. HIGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS WELL TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY
MIDWEEK. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY (PERHAPS WARMER TUESDAY). LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LO PRES WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN
WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND AND CANADIAN MARITIME CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. UPR LVL LO
WILL SWING OVR THE AREA THEN OFF THE CST TODAY INTO THIS
EVENG...BRINGING LWR CIGS (MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR) AND -RA TO THE TAF
SITES. NW OR N WINDS WILL PICK UP LATER THIS MORNG AND REMAIN
RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY INTO TNGT MOST TAF SITES. -RA WILL LAST
THE LONGEST OVR THE LWR MD/VA ERN SHR. BREEZY/WINDY OVR ERN HALF
OF THE REGION THRU THU...AS STRONG LO GRADUALLY MOVES AWAY TO THE
NE. COULD STILL BE SHOWERS OVR LWR MD (SBY) ALSO. HI PRES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR FRI AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
LO PRES WILL FORM OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND
CANADIAN MARITIME CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO ARND 30 KT THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG.
THEN...FM THIS EVENG THRU THU AFTN...GUSTS TO ARND 35 KT WILL BE
LIKELY OVR AT LEAST THE CHES BAY ZNS AND ON THE CSTL WTRS FM
FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LGT. THUS...HAVE ISSUED SCA THIS
MORNING/AFTN RAMPING UP TO A GALE WARNING IN THESE LOCATIONS FOR THIS
EVENG INTO/THRU THU AFTN. OTHRWISE...EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS OVR THE
ENTIRE WTRS FM THIS MORNG INTO EARLY FRI MORNG...AS STRNG LO PRES
IS SLOW TO MOVE AWAY TO THE NE. WITH THE FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FM
THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-7 FT AND TIDAL
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS
SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...JDM/LKB
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221534
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1134 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
SLOW WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS 1007 MB SFC LOW JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SHORE. UPR CLOSED LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER HAMPTON ROADS AND WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE THRU 18Z. BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS ACROSS THE MOUTH
OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND OFFSHORE JUST PAST 20 NM. LATEST SRM
PRODUCTS FROM THE LOCAL 88D`S SHOW SOME WEAK ROTATION WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS OFFSHORE...AND WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF WE HEAR
ABOUT A WATERSPOUT OR TWO. ANOTHER BAND OF RAIN IS NOW MOVING
SOUTH ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHICH WILL ALLOW RAIN TO LAST INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN THESE AREAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN VA INCLUDING HAMPTON ROADS. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ACROSS OUR SW COUNTIES WHERE SOME SUN WILL CONTINUE TO
PEAK THROUGH THE CLOUDS. HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A COUPLE MORE
DEGREES FOR TODAY AS HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 DEG IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS OFFSHORE THIS AFTN...DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN TO 20% OR LESS
OVER SW ZONES BY 21Z...WHILE FAVORABLE LIFT AND MOISTURE PERSIST
FARTHER EAST. THIS SEEMS TO BE SUPPORTED WELL BY LATEST HI RES
MODELS. WILL MAINTAIN 60-80% POPS OVER THE ERN 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE
CWA THROUGH 21Z. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK UP FROM THE SW LATER
IN THE AFTN...MAY SEE SOME PEEKS OF SUN ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL VA BY
MID-LATE AFTN BUT OVERALL IT WILL STAY BKN/OVC. OTHER FEATURE TO
NOTE WILL BE THE INCREASING NW WINDS BY AFTN AS THE SFC LOW
INTENSIFIES FAIRLY RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST. GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY LATER AFTN/EVENING (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST).

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE TONIGHT. HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ERN SHORE THIS EVENING...GENLY ONLY 20%-30%
POPS OR LOWER ELSEWHERE AFTER 00Z. DECREASING CLOUDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA/NC OVERNIGHT. REMAINING BREEZY TO
WINDY ESP NE SECTIONS. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 40S ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95 TO THE LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT IN BETWEEN SUB 1000 MB SFC
LOW OFF LONG ISLAND AND 1020 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY.
NAM SOLUTION IS OUTLIER WITH RESPECT TO IT`S LOCATION OF THE SFC
LOW WELL NORTH OF OTHER MODELS ON THU. THUS...NAM WINDS ARE
LIGHTER DUE TO A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT. FAVOR WINDS CLOSER TO A
GFS/ECMWF BLEND...WHICH YIELDS  BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACRS THE ERN SHORE...25-30 MPH ELSEWHERE. A
20%-30% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE.
STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR
SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY N/E TO PARTLY SUNNY S/W (MAYBE
MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE FAR SW). HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 F
ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE UPPER 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND
SOUTH CENTRAL VA. MOSTLY CLEAR SW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE THU NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND
MILDER TEMPS. HIGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS WELL TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY
MIDWEEK. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY (PERHAPS WARMER TUESDAY). LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LO PRES WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN
WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND AND CANADIAN MARITIME CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. UPR LVL LO
WILL SWING OVR THE AREA THEN OFF THE CST TODAY INTO THIS
EVENG...BRINGING LWR CIGS (MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR) AND -RA TO THE TAF
SITES. NW OR N WINDS WILL PICK UP LATER THIS MORNG AND REMAIN
RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY INTO TNGT MOST TAF SITES. -RA WILL LAST
THE LONGEST OVR THE LWR MD/VA ERN SHR. BREEZY/WINDY OVR ERN HALF
OF THE REGION THRU THU...AS STRONG LO GRADUALLY MOVES AWAY TO THE
NE. COULD STILL BE SHOWERS OVR LWR MD (SBY) ALSO. HI PRES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR FRI AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
LO PRES WILL FORM OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND
CANADIAN MARITIME CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO ARND 30 KT THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG.
THEN...FM THIS EVENG THRU THU AFTN...GUSTS TO ARND 35 KT WILL BE
LIKELY OVR AT LEAST THE CHES BAY ZNS AND ON THE CSTL WTRS FM
FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LGT. THUS...HAVE ISSUED SCA THIS
MORNING/AFTN RAMPING UP TO A GALE WARNING IN THESE LOCATIONS FOR THIS
EVENG INTO/THRU THU AFTN. OTHRWISE...EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS OVR THE
ENTIRE WTRS FM THIS MORNG INTO EARLY FRI MORNG...AS STRNG LO PRES
IS SLOW TO MOVE AWAY TO THE NE. WITH THE FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FM
THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-7 FT AND TIDAL
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS
SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...JDM/LKB
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG







000
FXUS61 KLWX 221440
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1040 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FRIDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS MOMENTARILY STATIONARY EAST OF THE
DELMARVA/TIDEWATER SHORE. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE NE TOWARDS CAPE COD. RAIN WRAPPING AROUND THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW CONTINUES TO IMPACT EASTERN/SOUTHERN
MD...WASHINGTON DC AND THE I-05 CORRIDOR DOWN TO FREDERICKSBURG
AND POINTS SOUTH. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO STAY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD
GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND NORTH. UPSLOPE SHOWERS ALSO
EXPECTED ALONG THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW AND COOLER AIR ALOFT IS
ADVECTED INTO THE REGION.

MAX TEMPS LIMITED BY CLOUDS AND PRECIP...AROUND 60F FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. LOW 60S FOR CHO AND SHD BASED ON EXPECTED SUNSHINE AND
DOWNSLOPING NWLY FLOW WITHOUT COLD AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THERE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH WHICH WILL HELP KEEP THE STRONG
WIND FIELD ABOVE THE SFC. THEREFORE...THE ONLY EXPECTED WIND
ADVISORY THREAT FOR TONIGHT IS THOUGHT TO BE ON RIDGETOPS. MIN
TEMPS MID TO UPR 40S WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY...GUSTY. THINK THE 00Z GFS IS TOO HIGH...BUT WIND GUSTS OF
30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC. MAX TEMPS UPR 50S TO LOW 60S IN THE WELL MIXED
ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TIME OF PARTIAL ECLIPSE FOR DC THU - 5:52 PM TO 6:17 PM. BALT IS
5:51 TO 6:15. APPROX 1/4 OF SUN WL BE COVERED...SWRN PART OF THE SKY.
QUSTN WL BE WHETHER IT WL BE VSBL DUE TO CLDS...WHICH SHOULD BE
DIMINISHING DURG THIS TIME PD. BEST CHCS FOR VIEWING WL MOST LKLY
BE IN THE WRN PART OF THE CWA AND CENTRAL SHEN VLLY.

CUTOFF LOW LOOKS TO BE NEAR CAPE COD FRI MRNG. HIGH PRES BLDG INTO
MID ALTC SHOULD PROVIDE GOOD WX FOR THE END OF THE WORKWK AND THEN A
VERY PLSNT WKND. HIGHS IN THE MU60S...LOWS GNRLY IN THE 40S XCPT
L50S IN THE CITIES. THIS IS PRETTY CLOSE TO CLIMO NORMS FOR THE
LATTER PART OF OCT.

A DRY CD FNT MAY COME THRU THE AREA SUN...THEN IT`S LOOKING LK A
BIG RDG OF HIGH PRES MOVES OVR THE E CST FOR THE 1ST PART OF NEXT
WK. HIGHS A70 LOWS IN THE 40S XCPT L50S IN THE CITY AND ALONG THE BAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF BY THIS AFTERNOON AT DC AREA
TERMINALS. BALTIMORE AIRPORTS WILL BE LAST TO SEE RAIN END LATE
TODAY. PRIMARILY MVFR CONDS...BUT PDS OF VFR AT KDCA/KIAD WHEN
LOWER CLOUDS SCATTER. NW WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT BY
THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...GUSTS
GENERALLY 30 TO 35 KT.

VFR CONDS XPCTD THRU THE XTND PD. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO ABATE THU NGT.

&&

.MARINE...
PERIODIC RAIN TODAY. SCA THROUGH TODAY AS NWLY FLOW INCREASES.
GALES OVER AT LEAST THE SRN MD WATERS TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT
INCREASES. MAY NEED GALES FOR ALL WATERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SCA CONDS LKLY TO CONT THU NGT AND FRI. IT LOOKS LK WKND BOATING
CONDS SHOULD BE GOOD. WATER TEMPS IN THE M60S.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>532-
     535-536-538>540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ533-
     534-537-541-543.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ533-534-537-541-543.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...AVIATION AND MARINE UPDATES...KCS








000
FXUS61 KPHI 221402
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1002 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT SLOWLY
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM SHOULD
BE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THEN MOVE
INTO NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
TOWARD OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE MID LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE WATERS OFF VIRGINIA AROUND
1000 AM AND THE SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED ABOUT 175 MILES TO THE
EAST. THE MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EAST NORTHEASTWARD
TODAY AS THE SURFACE REFLECTION LIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NORTH
NORTHEAST.

THE PRECIPITATION STREAM THAT WAS FEEDING INTO CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY, SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND THE UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WAS IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING AROUND
1000 AM. IT HAD BECOME LESS FOCUSED THAN IT WAS DURING THE NIGHT
AND RAINFALL RATES OVER LAND HAD DECREASED.

AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY OUT TO SEA, THE ORIENTATION OF THE
PRECIPITATION FEED IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST OVER OUR REGION AND IT SHOULD SETTLE OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S TODAY DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN ALONG WITH A BRISK NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW TO MAKE A MOVE
TO THE NORTH.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. MAINLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH HEAVIER RAIN POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE
UPPER LOW.

SOME COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BUT WE WILL
STILL HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. IT WILL FEEL COLDER AS THE WINDS
REMAIN UP THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A POTENT CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WILL TAKE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WITH IT AS IT TRACKS TOWARD
THE NOVA SCOTIA AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AS ENERGY DRIVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, A BUILDING RIDGE OCCURS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS
WILL PROBABLY FORCE ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DOWN INTO THE
NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER AS IT CLOSES OFF IT LOOKS TO
BE TO OUR NORTHEAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THEN
ARRIVES IN THE EAST MONDAY, HOWEVER WITH THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW
PATTERN THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRIVING EASTWARD
LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN BLENDED THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE IN WITH
CONTINUITY. SOME TWEAKS WERE THEN MADE AFTER ADDITIONAL
COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF A POTENT CLOSED LOW IS
FORECAST TO BE JUST TO OUR EAST THURSDAY, BUT THEN SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY, THIS WILL TAKE A STRENGTHENING
SURFACE LOW WITH IT. WE WILL MAINTAIN MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
CLOSED LOW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AREAS THURSDAY. THE MAIN FORCING THOUGH LOOKS TO
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. THEREFORE, SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
HIGHEST /LIKELY/ POPS ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE MORNING WITH A
DECREASE SOUTHWARD AND DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS DRYING
SHOULD WORK IN DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW
AND SURFACE LOW SHIFT FARTHER TO OUR NORTHEAST. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT COMBINED WITH A STRONGER WIND FIELD AND DEEPER MIXING
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS, WITH SOME
DECREASE BOTH NIGHTS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY
RESULT IN SOME CLOUDS FOR A TIME.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH
SATURDAY, HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER A LIMITED AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERALLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND,
WHICH MEANS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DOWN INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A BREEZY DAY MAY OCCUR AS MIXING
DEEPENS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES TOWARD THE
EAST ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WARMING
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS TIME FRAME, WITH
JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW 00Z WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS SHOULD FAVOR THE MVFR RANGE THROUGH THE DAY WITH PERIODS
OF RAIN. CEILINGS MAY OCCASIONALLY RISE INTO THE VFR CATEGORY.
ALSO, THEY MAY BRIEFLY FALL TO IFR, ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS OF
MODERATE RAINFALL. THE SAME TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT.

THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO FAVOR THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST FOR TODAY
WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 8 TO 14 KNOTS AND GUSTS INTO THE 20S.
THE WIND DIRECTION IS FORECAST TO BACK TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST
FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...TIMES OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME SHOWERS, ENDING IN
THE EVENING AND BECOME VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 KNOTS, DIMINISHING SOME AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
25 KNOTS, DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE IS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE UPPER PART OF DELAWARE
BAY AND A GALE WARNING ELSEWHERE IN OUR MARINE AREA.

TODAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS TODAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH
NORTHEAST EARLY BEFORE BECOMING MORE NORTH NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL
BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS ON THE OCEAN FRONT AND
LOWER DELAWARE BAY. THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY WILL SEE SIMILAR WINDS
WITH GUSTS IN THE LOWER 30 KNOT RANGE. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO
7 FEET ON THE OCEAN FRONT.

TONIGHT...THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES ON THE OCEAN AND LOWER BAY
TONIGHT. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT AND THEN START TO DIMINISH A
BIT TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING AS THE GRADIENT STARTS TO LIGHTEN UP.
SEAS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN OCEAN
ZONES AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY FOR THE MORNING AS GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS HANG ON SOME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES
FOR UPPER DELAWARE BAY, AND ONE WILL BE NEEDED ELSEWHERE FOLLOWING
THE GALE WARNING.

FRIDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE
ANTICIPATED ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN ZONES AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND MIXING CONTINUES. THIS SHOULD DECREASE AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE FLOW SHOULD INCREASE SOME SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THIS COULD RESULT IN GUSTS
TO ABOUT 25 KNOTS FOR A TIME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>452.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ431-453>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221231
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
831 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
SLOW WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE AS OF 830 AM EDT...ISOLD TSTMS STILL ONGOING ACROSS THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND FAR SE VA AS OF 12Z. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE TO WARRANT MENTION OF ISOLD TSTMS ACROSS THESE
AREAS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW
SHIFTS EAST AND OFFSHORE. HAVE MADE THAT ADJUSTED TO THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO SHOW BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS (I-95 CORRIDOR) THROUGH THE
MORNING...THEN SHIFTING FARTHER EAST TO THE EASTERN SHORE THIS
AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS ~1007 MB SFC LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENING OFF THE SE VA/NE NC COAST...WITH STRONG UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER WEST CENTRAL VA. AREA OF SHOWERS OVERSPREADING
PIEDMONT EARLY THIS MORNING UNDER THE COLD POOL ALOFT...WITH
ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS PUSHING OFF THE SE
VA/NE NC COAST ASSOCIATED W/ SFC COLD FRONT AND WIND SHIFT
BOUNDARY. LATEST RAP AND SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE ON THE ORDER
OF 300-500 J/KG AS OF 09Z...SHIFTING OFFSHORE PRIOR TO 12Z SO WILL
MAINTAIN MENTION OF TSTMS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THAT TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE TOO STABLE IN LOW LEVELS FOR ANY ADDITIONAL
TSTMS.

LATER TODAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW SLOWLY PUSHES ESE AND SHOULD BE
CENTERED OFFSHORE BY 15-18Z. WILL CARRY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
(60-80%) POPS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE MORNING AS DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE FAVORABLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD (CHC POPS
ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR NE NC WHERE LESS MOISTURE
RESIDES). AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS OFFSHORE...DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN TO 20% OR LESS
OVER SW ZONES...WHILE FAVORABLE LIFT AND MOISTURE PERSIST FARTHER
NORTH AND EAST. WILL MAINTAIN 60-80% POPS OVER THE ERN 1/2 TO 1/3
OF THE CWA THROUGH 20Z. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK UP FROM THE
SW LATER IN THE AFTN...MAY SEE SOME PEEKS OF SUN ACRS SOUTH
CENTRAL VA BY MID- LATE AFTN BUT OVERALL IT WILL STAY BKN/OVC.
HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW MORE DEGREES GIVEN CURRENT READINGS
IN THE LOWER-MID 50S...GENLY NO BETTER THAN THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60 F FOR MOST AREAS...WARMEST AREAS WILL BE OVER THE FAR SOUTH
AND ON THE ERN SHORE WHERE LOWER 60S ARE FORECAST. OTHER FEATURE TO NOTE
WILL BE THE INCREASING NW WINDS BY AFTN AS THE SFC LOW INTENSIFIES
FAIRLY RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST. GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY LATER AFTN/EVENING (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST).

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE TONIGHT. HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ERN SHORE THIS EVENING...GENLY ONLY 20%-30%
POPS OR LOWER ELSEWHERE AFTER 00Z. DECREASING CLOUDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA/NC OVERNIGHT. REMAINING BREEZY TO
WINDY ESP NE SECTIONS. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 40S ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95 TO THE LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT IN BETWEEN SUB 1000 MB SFC
LOW OFF LONG ISLAND AND 1020 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY.
NAM SOLUTION IS OUTLIER WITH RESPECT TO IT`S LOCATION OF THE SFC
LOW WELL NORTH OF OTHER MODELS ON THU. THUS...NAM WINDS ARE
LIGHTER DUE TO A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT. FAVOR WINDS CLOSER TO A
GFS/ECMWF BLEND...WHICH YIELDS  BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACRS THE ERN SHORE...25-30 MPH ELSEWHERE. A
20%-30% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE.
STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR
SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY N/E TO PARTLY SUNNY S/W (MAYBE
MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE FAR SW). HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 F
ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE UPPER 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND
SOUTH CENTRAL VA. MOSTLY CLEAR SW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE THU NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND
MILDER TEMPS. HIGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS WELL TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY
MIDWEEK. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY (PERHAPS WARMER TUESDAY). LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LO PRES WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN
WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND AND CANADIAN MARITIME CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. UPR LVL LO
WILL SWING OVR THE AREA THEN OFF THE CST TODAY INTO THIS
EVENG...BRINGING LWR CIGS (MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR) AND -RA TO THE TAF
SITES. NW OR N WINDS WILL PICK UP LATER THIS MORNG AND REMAIN
RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY INTO TNGT MOST TAF SITES. -RA WILL LAST
THE LONGEST OVR THE LWR MD/VA ERN SHR. BREEZY/WINDY OVR ERN HALF
OF THE REGION THRU THU...AS STRONG LO GRADUALLY MOVES AWAY TO THE
NE. COULD STILL BE SHOWERS OVR LWR MD (SBY) ALSO. HI PRES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR FRI AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
LO PRES WILL FORM OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND
CANADIAN MARITIME CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO ARND 30 KT THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG.
THEN...FM THIS EVENG THRU THU AFTN...GUSTS TO ARND 35 KT WILL BE
LIKELY OVR AT LEAST THE CHES BAY ZNS AND ON THE CSTL WTRS FM
FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LGT. THUS...HAVE ISSUED SCA THIS
MORNING/AFTN RAMPING UP TO A GALE WARNING IN THESE LOCATIONS FOR THIS
EVENG INTO/THRU THU AFTN. OTHRWISE...EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS OVR THE
ENTIRE WTRS FM THIS MORNG INTO EARLY FRI MORNG...AS STRNG LO PRES
IS SLOW TO MOVE AWAY TO THE NE. WITH THE FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FM
THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-7 FT AND TIDAL
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS
SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...JDM/LKB
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221214
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
814 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
SLOW WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS ~1007 MB SFC LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFF THE
SE VA/NE NC COAST...WITH STRONG UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WEST
CENTRAL VA. AREA OF SHOWERS OVERSPREADING PIEDMONT EARLY THIS
MORNING UNDER THE COLD POOL ALOFT...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS PUSHING OFF THE SE VA/NE NC COAST ASSOCIATED W/
SFC COLD FRONT AND WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY. LATEST RAP AND SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 300-500 J/KG AS OF
09Z...SHIFTING OFFSHORE PRIOR TO 12Z SO WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF
TSTMS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THAT TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE...SHOULD
BE TOO STABLE IN LOW LEVELS FOR ANY ADDITIONAL TSTMS.

LATER TODAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW SLOWLY PUSHES ESE AND SHOULD BE
CENTERED OFFSHORE BY 15-18Z. WILL CARRY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
(60-80%) POPS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE MORNING AS DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE FAVORABLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD (CHC POPS
ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR NE NC WHERE LESS MOISTURE
RESIDES). AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS OFFSHORE...DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN TO 20% OR LESS
OVER SW ZONES...WHILE FAVORABLE LIFT AND MOISTURE PERSIST FARTHER
NORTH AND EAST. WILL MAINTAIN 60-80% POPS OVER THE ERN 1/2 TO 1/3
OF THE CWA THROUGH 20Z. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK UP FROM THE
SW LATER IN THE AFTN...MAY SEE SOME PEEKS OF SUN ACRS SOUTH
CENTRAL VA BY MID- LATE AFTN BUT OVERALL IT WILL STAY BKN/OVC.
HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW MORE DEGREES GIVEN CURRENT READINGS
IN THE LOWER-MID 50S...GENLY NO BETTER THAN THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60 F FOR MOST AREAS...WARMEST AREAS WILL BE OVER THE FAR SOUTH
AND ON THE ERN SHORE WHERE LOWER 60S ARE FORECAST. OTHER FEATURE TO NOTE
WILL BE THE INCREASING NW WINDS BY AFTN AS THE SFC LOW INTENSIFIES
FAIRLY RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST. GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY LATER AFTN/EVENING (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST).

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE TONIGHT. HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ERN SHORE THIS EVENING...GENLY ONLY 20%-30%
POPS OR LOWER ELSEWHERE AFTER 00Z. DECREASING CLOUDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA/NC OVERNIGHT. REMAINING BREEZY TO
WINDY ESP NE SECTIONS. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 40S ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95 TO THE LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT IN BETWEEN SUB 1000 MB SFC
LOW OFF LONG ISLAND AND 1020 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY.
NAM SOLUTION IS OUTLIER WITH RESPECT TO IT`S LOCATION OF THE SFC
LOW WELL NORTH OF OTHER MODELS ON THU. THUS...NAM WINDS ARE
LIGHTER DUE TO A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT. FAVOR WINDS CLOSER TO A
GFS/ECMWF BLEND...WHICH YIELDS  BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACRS THE ERN SHORE...25-30 MPH ELSEWHERE. A
20%-30% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE.
STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR
SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY N/E TO PARTLY SUNNY S/W (MAYBE
MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE FAR SW). HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 F
ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE UPPER 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND
SOUTH CENTRAL VA. MOSTLY CLEAR SW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE THU NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND
MILDER TEMPS. HIGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS WELL TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY
MIDWEEK. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY (PERHAPS WARMER TUESDAY). LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LO PRES WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN
WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND AND CANADIAN MARITIME CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. UPR LVL LO
WILL SWING OVR THE AREA THEN OFF THE CST TODAY INTO THIS
EVENG...BRINGING LWR CIGS (MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR) AND -RA TO THE TAF
SITES. NW OR N WINDS WILL PICK UP LATER THIS MORNG AND REMAIN
RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY INTO TNGT MOST TAF SITES. -RA WILL LAST
THE LONGEST OVR THE LWR MD/VA ERN SHR. BREEZY/WINDY OVR ERN HALF
OF THE REGION THRU THU...AS STRONG LO GRADUALLY MOVES AWAY TO THE
NE. COULD STILL BE SHOWERS OVR LWR MD (SBY) ALSO. HI PRES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR FRI AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
LO PRES WILL FORM OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND
CANADIAN MARITIME CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO ARND 30 KT THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG.
THEN...FM THIS EVENG THRU THU AFTN...GUSTS TO ARND 35 KT WILL BE
LIKELY OVR AT LEAST THE CHES BAY ZNS AND ON THE CSTL WTRS FM
FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LGT. THUS...HAVE ISSUED SCA THIS
MORNING/AFTN RAMPING UP TO A GALE WARNING IN THESE LOCATIONS FOR THIS
EVENG INTO/THRU THU AFTN. OTHRWISE...EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS OVR THE
ENTIRE WTRS FM THIS AFTN INTO EARLY FRI MORNG...AS STRNG LO PRES
IS SLOW TO MOVE AWAY TO THE NE. WITH THE FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FM
THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-7 FT AND TIDAL
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS
SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221055
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
655 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS UPPER LOW PRESSURE
EXITS EASTWARD. A STRENGTHENING HIGH WILL DRY AND WARM THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY REGION INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MINOR TWEAKS TO THE NR TERM GRIDS BASED ON OBS AND RADAR FOR THE
PRE DAWN UPDT.

PREVIOUS DISC...MATURATION OF LOW PRES IS STILL MDL PROGGED OVR
THE COAST BY DAYS END AND OVRALL SBSDNC WL GRADUALLY SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVR MOST OF THE UPR OH VALLEY AREA...ALTHOUGH
SLGT SHWR CHCS MAY LINGER INTO EVE OVR THE RIDGES WITH THE SHARPER
UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE.

COLD TEMPS WL LINGER THOUGH AS COLD...TO NEUTRAL ADVCTN CONTS ON
THE REAR FLANK OF THE EXITING LOW. TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES UNDR THE
AVGS WERE MASSAGED USING SREF MEANS AND BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHRTWV RIDGING IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS RMNG PCPN CHCS TNGT...AND
INTO FRIDAY.

THEREAFTER...NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF HAVE CONSISTENTLY DEPICTED THE
APCH...AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK SHRTWV IN NW FLOW ON FRIDAY. GIVEN
DEPICTIONS OF A LTD MID LVL MSTR FIELD...CAPPED LOW LVLS AFTR MID
LVL WARMING...AND AN ABSENT PCPN SPPRTG OMEGA FIELD...HAVE DECIDED
TO ELIMINATE THE ALREADY SLGT POP FORECAST IN FAVOR A STRENGTHENING
DRY TREND.

ANOTHER SUCH DISTURBANCE IS PROJECTED FOR A SATURDAY CROSSING...BUT
THE RAIN POTENTIAL LKS EQUALLY SLIM GIVEN SIMILIAR LIMITATIONS AS
FRIDAY AS WELL AS A MORE NWD TRACK OF THE LOW CNTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS FEATURE MODERATION TWD THE SEASONAL AVGS...FORECAST
FOR WAS TWEAKED AGAIN USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS AND SREF MEANS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS THRU ERLY
NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. A WKNG TROF IS PROGGED FOR A
MID WK PASSAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E. SEASONALLY COOL WKEND TEMPS
ARE EXP TO INCR TO ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WDSPRD MVFR CONDS ARE EXPD INTO TNGT WITH LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE
UNDER AN UPR LOW ACRS THE RGN. ENOUGH DRY AIR SHOULD MOVE IN THIS
EVE TO ALLOW SOME CLRG W AT ZZV...AND OVRNGT ACRS AREAS FM PIT W.
CLRG AT ZZV MAY BE ERLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FG TO DVLP
LT TNGT.

.AVIATION /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE EXPD INTO THU MRNG BEFORE THE UPR LOW EXITS THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220959
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
559 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
SLOW WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS ~1007 MB SFC LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFF THE
SE VA/NE NC COAST...WITH STRONG UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WEST
CENTRAL VA. AREA OF SHOWERS OVERSPREADING PIEDMONT EARLY THIS
MORNING UNDER THE COLD POOL ALOFT...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS PUSHING OFF THE SE VA/NE NC COAST ASSOCIATED W/
SFC COLD FRONT AND WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY. LATEST RAP AND SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 300-500 J/KG AS OF
09Z...SHIFTING OFFSHORE PRIOR TO 12Z SO WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF
TSTMS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THAT TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE...SHOULD
BE TOO STABLE IN LOW LEVELS FOR ANY ADDITIONAL TSTMS.

LATER TODAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW SLOWLY PUSHES ESE AND SHOULD BE
CENTERED OFFSHORE BY 15-18Z. WILL CARRY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
(60-80%) POPS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE MORNING AS DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE FAVORABLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD (CHC POPS
ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR NE NC WHERE LESS MOISTURE
RESIDES). AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS OFFSHORE...DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN TO 20% OR LESS
OVER SW ZONES...WHILE FAVORABLE LIFT AND MOISTURE PERSIST FARTHER
NORTH AND EAST. WILL MAINTAIN 60-80% POPS OVER THE ERN 1/2 TO 1/3
OF THE CWA THROUGH 20Z. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK UP FROM THE
SW LATER IN THE AFTN...MAY SEE SOME PEEKS OF SUN ACRS SOUTH
CENTRAL VA BY MID- LATE AFTN BUT OVERALL IT WILL STAY BKN/OVC.
HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW MORE DEGREES GIVEN CURRENT READINGS
IN THE LOWER-MID 50S...GENLY NO BETTER THAN THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60 F FOR MOST AREAS...WARMEST AREAS WILL BE OVER THE FAR SOUTH
AND ON THE ERN SHORE WHERE LOWER 60S ARE FORECAST. OTHER FEATURE TO NOTE
WILL BE THE INCREASING NW WINDS BY AFTN AS THE SFC LOW INTENSIFIES
FAIRLY RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST. GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY LATER AFTN/EVENING (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST).

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE TONIGHT. HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ERN SHORE THIS EVENING...GENLY ONLY 20%-30%
POPS OR LOWER ELSEWHERE AFTER 00Z. DECREASING CLOUDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA/NC OVERNIGHT. REMAINING BREEZY TO
WINDY ESP NE SECTIONS. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 40S ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95 TO THE LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT IN BETWEEN SUB 1000 MB SFC
LOW OFF LONG ISLAND AND 1020 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY.
NAM SOLUTION IS OUTLIER WITH RESPECT TO IT`S LOCATION OF THE SFC
LOW WELL NORTH OF OTHER MODELS ON THU. THUS...NAM WINDS ARE
LIGHTER DUE TO A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT. FAVOR WINDS CLOSER TO A
GFS/ECMWF BLEND...WHICH YIELDS  BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACRS THE ERN SHORE...25-30 MPH ELSEWHERE. A
20%-30% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE.
STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR
SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY N/E TO PARTLY SUNNY S/W (MAYBE
MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE FAR SW). HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 F
ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE UPPER 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND
SOUTH CENTRAL VA. MOSTLY CLEAR SW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE THU NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND
MILDER TEMPS. HIGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS WELL TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY
MIDWEEK. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY (PERHAPS WARMER TUESDAY). LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LO PRES WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN
WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND AND CANADIAN MARITIME CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. UPR LVL LO
WILL SWING OVR THE AREA THEN OFF THE CST TODAY INTO THIS
EVENG...BRINGING LWR CIGS (MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR) AND -RA TO THE TAF
SITES. NW OR N WINDS WILL PICK UP LATER THIS MORNG AND REMAIN
RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY INTO TNGT MOST TAF SITES. -RA WILL LAST
THE LONGEST OVR THE LWR MD/VA ERN SHR. BREEZY/WINDY OVR ERN HALF
OF THE REGION THRU THU...AS STRONG LO GRADUALLY MOVES AWAY TO THE
NE. COULD STILL BE SHOWERS OVR LWR MD (SBY) ALSO. HI PRES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR FRI AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
LO PRES WILL FORM OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND
CANADIAN MARITIME CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO ARND 30 KT THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG.
THEN...FM THIS EVENG THRU THU AFTN...GUSTS TO ARND 35 KT WILL BE
LIKELY OVR AT LEAST THE CHES BAY ZNS AND ON THE CSTL WTRS FM
FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LGT. THUS...HAVE SCA RAMPING UP TO
A GALE WARNING IN THESE LOCATIONS FOR THIS EVENG INTO/THRU THU
AFTN. OTHRWISE...EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS OVR THE ENTIRE WTRS FM THIS
AFTN INTO EARLY FRI MORNG...AS STRNG LO PRES IS SLOW TO MOVE AWAY
TO THE NE. WITH THE FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FM THE NW...SEAS WOULD
TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-7 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS
DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220959
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
559 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
SLOW WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS ~1007 MB SFC LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFF THE
SE VA/NE NC COAST...WITH STRONG UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WEST
CENTRAL VA. AREA OF SHOWERS OVERSPREADING PIEDMONT EARLY THIS
MORNING UNDER THE COLD POOL ALOFT...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS PUSHING OFF THE SE VA/NE NC COAST ASSOCIATED W/
SFC COLD FRONT AND WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY. LATEST RAP AND SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 300-500 J/KG AS OF
09Z...SHIFTING OFFSHORE PRIOR TO 12Z SO WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF
TSTMS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THAT TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE...SHOULD
BE TOO STABLE IN LOW LEVELS FOR ANY ADDITIONAL TSTMS.

LATER TODAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW SLOWLY PUSHES ESE AND SHOULD BE
CENTERED OFFSHORE BY 15-18Z. WILL CARRY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
(60-80%) POPS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE MORNING AS DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE FAVORABLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD (CHC POPS
ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR NE NC WHERE LESS MOISTURE
RESIDES). AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS OFFSHORE...DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN TO 20% OR LESS
OVER SW ZONES...WHILE FAVORABLE LIFT AND MOISTURE PERSIST FARTHER
NORTH AND EAST. WILL MAINTAIN 60-80% POPS OVER THE ERN 1/2 TO 1/3
OF THE CWA THROUGH 20Z. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK UP FROM THE
SW LATER IN THE AFTN...MAY SEE SOME PEEKS OF SUN ACRS SOUTH
CENTRAL VA BY MID- LATE AFTN BUT OVERALL IT WILL STAY BKN/OVC.
HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW MORE DEGREES GIVEN CURRENT READINGS
IN THE LOWER-MID 50S...GENLY NO BETTER THAN THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60 F FOR MOST AREAS...WARMEST AREAS WILL BE OVER THE FAR SOUTH
AND ON THE ERN SHORE WHERE LOWER 60S ARE FORECAST. OTHER FEATURE TO NOTE
WILL BE THE INCREASING NW WINDS BY AFTN AS THE SFC LOW INTENSIFIES
FAIRLY RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST. GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY LATER AFTN/EVENING (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST).

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE TONIGHT. HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ERN SHORE THIS EVENING...GENLY ONLY 20%-30%
POPS OR LOWER ELSEWHERE AFTER 00Z. DECREASING CLOUDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA/NC OVERNIGHT. REMAINING BREEZY TO
WINDY ESP NE SECTIONS. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 40S ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95 TO THE LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT IN BETWEEN SUB 1000 MB SFC
LOW OFF LONG ISLAND AND 1020 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY.
NAM SOLUTION IS OUTLIER WITH RESPECT TO IT`S LOCATION OF THE SFC
LOW WELL NORTH OF OTHER MODELS ON THU. THUS...NAM WINDS ARE
LIGHTER DUE TO A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT. FAVOR WINDS CLOSER TO A
GFS/ECMWF BLEND...WHICH YIELDS  BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACRS THE ERN SHORE...25-30 MPH ELSEWHERE. A
20%-30% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE.
STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR
SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY N/E TO PARTLY SUNNY S/W (MAYBE
MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE FAR SW). HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 F
ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE UPPER 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND
SOUTH CENTRAL VA. MOSTLY CLEAR SW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE THU NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND
MILDER TEMPS. HIGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS WELL TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY
MIDWEEK. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY (PERHAPS WARMER TUESDAY). LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LO PRES WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN
WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND AND CANADIAN MARITIME CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. UPR LVL LO
WILL SWING OVR THE AREA THEN OFF THE CST TODAY INTO THIS
EVENG...BRINGING LWR CIGS (MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR) AND -RA TO THE TAF
SITES. NW OR N WINDS WILL PICK UP LATER THIS MORNG AND REMAIN
RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY INTO TNGT MOST TAF SITES. -RA WILL LAST
THE LONGEST OVR THE LWR MD/VA ERN SHR. BREEZY/WINDY OVR ERN HALF
OF THE REGION THRU THU...AS STRONG LO GRADUALLY MOVES AWAY TO THE
NE. COULD STILL BE SHOWERS OVR LWR MD (SBY) ALSO. HI PRES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR FRI AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
LO PRES WILL FORM OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND
CANADIAN MARITIME CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO ARND 30 KT THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG.
THEN...FM THIS EVENG THRU THU AFTN...GUSTS TO ARND 35 KT WILL BE
LIKELY OVR AT LEAST THE CHES BAY ZNS AND ON THE CSTL WTRS FM
FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LGT. THUS...HAVE SCA RAMPING UP TO
A GALE WARNING IN THESE LOCATIONS FOR THIS EVENG INTO/THRU THU
AFTN. OTHRWISE...EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS OVR THE ENTIRE WTRS FM THIS
AFTN INTO EARLY FRI MORNG...AS STRNG LO PRES IS SLOW TO MOVE AWAY
TO THE NE. WITH THE FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FM THE NW...SEAS WOULD
TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-7 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS
DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220903
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
503 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
SLOW WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS ~1008 MB SFC LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFF THE SE
VA/NE NC COAST...WITH STRONG UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WEST CENTRAL
VA. AREA OF SHOWERS OVERSPREADING PIEDMONT EARLY THIS MORNING UNDER
THE COLD POOL ALOFT...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS PUSHING OFF THE SE VA/NE NC COAST ASSOCIATED W/ SFC COLD FRONT
AND WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY. LATEST RAP AND SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE
ON THE ORDER OF 300-500 J/KG AS OF 07Z...SHIFTING OFFSHORE PRIOR TO
12Z SO WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF TSTMS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THAT
TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE TOO STABLE IN LOW LEVELS FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL TSTMS.

LATER TODAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW SLOWLY PUSHES ESE AND SHOULD BE
CENTERED OFFSHORE BY 15-18Z. WILL CARRY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
(60-80%) POPS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE MORNING AS DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE FAVORABLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD (CHC POPS
ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR NE NC WHERE LESS MOISTURE
RESIDES). AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS OFFSHORE...DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND SHOULD END MUCH CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIP THIS AFTN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR NE NC...WHILE
FAVORABLE LIFT AND MOISTURE PERSIST OVER NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY TO CAT POPS ON THE ERN SHORE THROUGH THE
AFTN...TAPERED TO 20% OR LOWER FROM SW SIDE OF METRO RICHMOND ON
SW. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK UP HOWEVER...MAY SEE SOME PEEKS
OF SUN ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL VA BY MID-LATE AFTN BUT OVERALL IT WILL
STAY BKN/OVC. FAVOR COOLER END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...GENLY NO
BETTER THAN THE LOWER 60S OVER MOST AREAS..RANGING FROM LWR TO MID
60S ACRS THE FAR SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 F OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES FROM CAROLINE COUNTY ON WEST. OTHER FEATURE TO
NOTE WILL BE THE INCREASING NW WINDS BY AFTN AS THE SFC LOW
INTENSIFIES FAIRLY RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST. GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY LATER AFTN/EVENING (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST).

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE TONIGHT. HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ERN SHORE THIS EVENING...GENLY ONLY 20%
POPS OR LOWER ELSEWHERE AFTER 00Z. DECREASING CLOUDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA/NC OVERNIGHT. REMAINING BREEZY TO
WINDY ESP NE SECTIONS. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 40S ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95 TO THE LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT IN BETWEEN SUB 1000 MB SFC
LOW OFF LONG ISLAND AND 1020 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY.
EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACRS THE
ERN SHORE...25-30 MPH ELSEWHERE. A 20% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE. STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY
N/E TO PARTLY SUNNY S/W (MAYBE MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE FAR SW).
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 F ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE
MID-UPPER 60S SW.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND
MILDER TEMPS. HIGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS WELL TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY
MIDWEEK. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY (PERHAPS WARMER TUESDAY). LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LO PRES WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN
WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND AND CANADIAN MARITIME CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. UPR LVL LO
WILL SWING OVR THE AREA THEN OFF THE CST TODAY INTO THIS
EVENG...BRINGING LWR CIGS (MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR) AND -RA TO THE TAF
SITES. NW OR N WINDS WILL PICK UP LATER THIS MORNG AND REMAIN
RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY INTO TNGT MOST TAF SITES. -RA WILL LAST
THE LONGEST OVR THE LWR MD/VA ERN SHR. BREEZY/WINDY OVR ERN HALF
OF THE REGION THRU THU...AS STRONG LO GRADUALLY MOVES AWAY TO THE
NE. COULD STILL BE SHOWERS OVR LWR MD (SBY) ALSO. HI PRES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR FRI AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
LO PRES WILL FORM OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND
CANADIAN MARITIME CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO ARND 30 KT THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG.
THEN...FM THIS EVENG THRU THU AFTN...GUSTS TO ARND 35 KT WILL BE
LIKELY OVR AT LEAST THE CHES BAY ZNS AND ON THE CSTL WTRS FM
FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LGT. THUS...HAVE SCA RAMPING UP TO
A GALE WARNING IN THESE LOCATIONS FOR THIS EVENG INTO/THRU THU
AFTN. OTHRWISE...EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS OVR THE ENTIRE WTRS FM THIS
AFTN INTO EARLY FRI MORNG...AS STRNG LO PRES IS SLOW TO MOVE AWAY
TO THE NE. WITH THE FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FM THE NW...SEAS WOULD
TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-7 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS
DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG







000
FXUS61 KPHI 220827
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
427 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM SHOULD BE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THEN MOVE INTO NOVA
SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TOWARD OUR
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE UPPER LOW MAKES A MOVE TO THE EAST THROUGH TODAY AND SHOULD MOVE
OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN
OFFSHORE AS IT STARTS TO MAKE ITS PUSH TO THE NORTH. THE SURFACE
LOWS NORTHWARD PUSH IS IMPEDED BY THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NORTHEASTERN CANADA.

THIS WILL CAUSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO REMAIN PRETTY TIGHT ACROSS
OUR AREA AND IN RETURN, WE WILL HAVE A BLUSTERY KIND OF DAY. CLOUDY
SKIES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CERTAINLY MAKE IT FEEL LIKE FALL OUT
THERE. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE ALL THAT MUCH AND MOST AREAS WILL
BE LUCKY IF THEY CAN MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER 60S. WE WILL LIKELY SEE
A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S WITH SOME LOWER
60S MORE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

IN ADDITION, THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL TAP INTO A BIT OF
MOISTURE AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS OFF AND ON TODAY. THERE
IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY AROUND TO SPARK OFF SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS MORNING. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER WILL
EXIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS AND CLOSER TO THE COAST AS A VORT
MAX LIFTS NORTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW TO MAKE A MOVE TO
THE NORTH.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. MAINLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH HEAVIER RAIN POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE
UPPER LOW.

SOME COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BUT WE WILL STILL
HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. IT WILL FEEL COLDER AS THE WINDS REMAIN
UP THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A POTENT CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS
WILL TAKE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WITH IT AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE NOVA
SCOTIA AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AS ENERGY DRIVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, A BUILDING RIDGE OCCURS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL
PROBABLY FORCE ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DOWN INTO THE NORTHEAST
OVER THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER AS IT CLOSES OFF IT LOOKS TO BE TO OUR
NORTHEAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THEN ARRIVES IN THE
EAST MONDAY, HOWEVER WITH THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN THE NEXT COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRIVING EASTWARD LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WE
USED A MODEL BLEND FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN BLENDED THE
00Z WPC GUIDANCE IN WITH CONTINUITY. SOME TWEAKS WERE THEN MADE
AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF A POTENT CLOSED LOW IS
FORECAST TO BE JUST TO OUR EAST THURSDAY, BUT THEN SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY, THIS WILL TAKE A STRENGTHENING SURFACE
LOW WITH IT. WE WILL MAINTAIN MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE CLOSED
LOW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREAS THURSDAY. THE MAIN FORCING THOUGH LOOKS TO REMAIN TO
OUR NORTH. THEREFORE, SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHEST
/LIKELY/ POPS ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE MORNING WITH A DECREASE
SOUTHWARD AND DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS DRYING SHOULD WORK IN
DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW AND SURFACE LOW
SHIFT FARTHER TO OUR NORTHEAST. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINED
WITH A STRONGER WIND FIELD AND DEEPER MIXING WILL RESULT IN BREEZY
TO WINDY CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS, WITH SOME DECREASE BOTH NIGHTS. A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT,
HOWEVER A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN SOME CLOUDS
FOR A TIME.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH
SATURDAY, HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER A LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE SHOULD
RESULT IN A GENERALLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND, WHICH MEANS A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A
RESULT, A BREEZY DAY MAY OCCUR AS MIXING DEEPENS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
STARTS TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES TOWARD THE EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WARMING
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS TIME FRAME, WITH
JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW 00Z WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE TERMINALS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED MAINLY ALONG THE COAST, AFFECTING KACY
EARLY THIS MORNING, AND WILL START TO PUSH INLAND OVER THE COMING
HOURS. HOW MUCH THEY HOLD TOGETHER AND HOW FAR INLAND THEY GET WILL
BE THE QUESTION. PRESENTLY, IT LOOKS LIKE THE STORMS WILL MAKE IT AS
FAR INLAND AS KMIV. SHOWERS WILL PUSH INLAND AS WELL AND LOOK TO
IMPACT KILG, KPHL, KPNE, AND KTTN THIS MORNING. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES AND PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY AFFECT KMIV BETWEEN 8Z-10Z. SHOULD ANY HOLD TOGETHER AND
APPROACH THE I-95 CORRIDOR, IT WOULD BE CLOSER TO 10Z-12Z.

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY AND A BIT
MORE NORTH TO NORTHWEST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPEEDS
AROUND 5-10 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS BY THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...TIMES OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME SHOWERS, ENDING IN THE
EVENING AND BECOME VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
30 KNOTS, DIMINISHING SOME AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS, DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE OCEAN HAS BEEN CONVERTED OVER TO A
GALE WARNING. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE UPPER BAY REMAINS
UNCHANGED, AS DOES THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED GALE WARNING.

TODAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS TODAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH
NORTHEAST EARLY BEFORE BECOMING MORE NORTH NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL BE
20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS ON THE OCEAN FRONT AND LOWER
DELAWARE BAY. THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY WILL SEE SIMILAR WINDS WITH
GUSTS IN THE LOWER 30 KNOT RANGE. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO 7 FEET
ON THE OCEAN FRONT.

TONIGHT...THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES ON THE OCEAN AND LOWER BAY
TONIGHT. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT AND THEN START TO DIMINISH A
BIT TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING AS THE GRADIENT STARTS TO LIGHTEN UP.
SEAS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN OCEAN ZONES
AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY FOR THE MORNING AS GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
HANG ON SOME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR UPPER DELAWARE
BAY, AND ONE WILL BE NEEDED ELSEWHERE FOLLOWING THE GALE WARNING.

FRIDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE ANTICIPATED
ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN ZONES AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING
CONTINUES. THIS SHOULD DECREASE AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE FLOW SHOULD INCREASE SOME SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THIS COULD RESULT IN GUSTS TO ABOUT
25 KNOTS FOR A TIME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>452.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ431-453>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA





000
FXUS61 KLWX 220803 CCA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
401 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FRIDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

AS OF 07Z...UPR LOW CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN MARYLAND SHORE OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY PER WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE LOWER LEVEL
LOW IS SHIFTED A BIT FARTHER EAST PER REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY. THE
SFC LOW IS AT MOST 1008MB AND OFF THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC COAST PER
OBS/BUOYS. MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE UPR LOW HAS ALLOW SOME
THUNDER OVER THE DELMARVA WITH A FEW STRIKES IN HARFORD COUNTY. THIS
LOW COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNRISE THEN
MERELY DRIFT EAST THROUGH TODAY. THUNDER THREAT WILL END BY SUNRISE
AS THE UPR LOW MOVES EAST.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE
HEAVIEST WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THREE INCHES STORM
TOTAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS BALTIMORE/HARFORD COUNTIES WHERE ONE TO TWO
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN. COULD BE A FLOOD THREAT THERE AND THIS WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. OTHERWISE...RAIN WILL RETRACT EAST
FROM THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS (THOUGH UPSLOPE PERSISTS) THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE.

MAX TEMPS LIMITED BY CLOUDS AND PRECIP...AROUND 60F FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. RAISED TEMPS TO THE LOW 60S FOR CHO AND SHD BASED ON EXPECTED
SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPING NWLY FLOW WITHOUT COLD AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THERE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH WHICH WILL HELP KEEP THE STRONG
WIND FIELD ABOVE THE SFC. THEREFORE...THE ONLY EXPECTED WIND
ADVISORY THREAT FOR TONIGHT IS THOUGHT TO BE ON RIDGETOPS. MIN
TEMPS MID TO UPR 40S WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY...GUSTY. THINK THE 00Z GFS IS TOO HIGH...BUT WIND GUSTS OF
30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC. MAX TEMPS UPR 50S TO LOW 60S IN THE WELL MIXED
ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TIME OF PARTIAL ECLIPSE FOR DC THU - 5:52 PM TO 6:17 PM. BALT IS
5:51 TO 6:15. APPROX 1/4 OF SUN WL BE COVERED...SWRN PART OF THE SKY.
QUSTN WL BE WHETHER IT WL BE VSBL DUE TO CLDS...WHICH SHOULD BE
DIMINISHING DURG THIS TIME PD. BEST CHCS FOR VIEWING WL MOST LKLY
BE IN THE WRN PART OF THE CWA AND CENTRAL SHEN VLLY.

CUTOFF LOW LOOKS TO BE NEAR CAPE COD FRI MRNG. HIGH PRES BLDG INTO
MID ALTC SHOULD PROVIDE GOOD WX FOR THE END OF THE WORKWK AND THEN A
VERY PLSNT WKND. HIGHS IN THE MU60S...LOWS GNRLY IN THE 40S XCPT
L50S IN THE CITIES. THIS IS PRETTY CLOSE TO CLIMO NORMS FOR THE
LATTER PART OF OCT.

A DRY CD FNT MAY COME THRU THE AREA SUN...THEN IT`S LOOKING LK A
BIG RDG OF HIGH PRES MOVES OVR THE E CST FOR THE 1ST PART OF NEXT
WK. HIGHS A70 LOWS IN THE 40S XCPT L50S IN THE CITY AND ALONG THE BAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

MVFR CONDS IN PERIODIC RAIN TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST FROM
THE AREA (CURRENTLY RIGHT OVER THE DC METROS). NW WINDS INCREASE
WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT BY THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...GUSTS GENERALLY 30 TO 35 KT.

VFR CONDS XPCTD THRU THE XTND PD. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO ABATE THU NGT.

&&

.MARINE...

PERIODIC RAIN TODAY WITH ANY THUNDER ENDING BY MID MORNING. SCA
THROUGH TODAY AS NWLY FLOW INCREASES. GALES OVER AT LEAST THE SRN MD
WATERS TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES. MAY NEED GALES FOR ALL
WATERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SCA CONDS LKLY TO CONT THU NGT AND FRI. IT LOOKS LK WKND BOATING
CONDS SHOULD BE GOOD. WATER TEMPS IN THE M60S.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...BAJ/WOODY!









000
FXUS61 KLWX 220800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FRIDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

AS OF 07Z...UPR LOW CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN MARYLAND SHORE OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY PER WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE LOWER LEVEL
LOW IS SHIFTED A BIT FARTHER EAST PER REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY. THE
SFC LOW IS AT MOST 1008MB AND OFF THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC COAST PER
OBS/BUOYS. MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE UPR LOW HAS ALLOW SOME
THUNDER OVER THE DELMARVA WITH A FEW STRIKES IN HARFORD COUNTY. THIS
LOW COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNRISE THEN
MERELY DRIFT EAST THROUGH TODAY. THUNDER THREAT WILL END BY SUNRISE
AS THE UPR LOW MOVES EAST.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE
HEAVIEST WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THREE INCHES STORM
TOTAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS BALTIMORE/HARFORD COUNTIES WHERE ONE TO TWO
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN. COULD BE A FLOOD THREAT THERE AND THIS WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. OTHERWISE...RAIN WILL RETRACT EAST
FROM THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS (THOUGH UPSLOPE PERSISTS) THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE.

MAX TEMPS LIMITED BY CLOUDS AND PRECIP...AROUND 60F FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. RAISED TEMPS TO THE LOW 60S FOR CHO AND SHD BASED ON EXPECTED
SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPING NWLY FLOW WITHOUT COLD AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THERE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH WHICH WILL HELP KEEP THE STRONG
WIND FIELD ABOVE THE SFC. THEREFORE...THE ONLY EXPECTED WIND
ADVISORY THREAT FOR TONIGHT IS THOUGHT TO BE ON RIDGETOPS. MIN
TEMPS MID TO UPR 40S WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY...GUSTY. THINK THE 00Z GFS IS TOO HIGH...BUT WIND GUSTS OF
30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC. MAX TEMPS UPR 50S TO LOW 60S IN THE WELL MIXED
ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TIME OF PARTIAL ECLIPSE FOR DC THU - 5:52 PM TO 6:17 PM. BALT IS
5:51 TO 6:15. APPROX 1/4 OF SUN WL BE COVERED...SWRN PART OF THE SKY.
QUSTN WL BE WHETHER IT WL BE VSBL DUE TO CLDS...WHICH SHOULD BE
DIMINISHING DURG THIS TIME PD. BEST CHCS FOR VIEWING WL MOST LKLY
BE IN THE WRN PART OF THE CWA AND CENTRAL SHEN VLLY.

CUTOFF LOW LOOKS TO BE NEAR CAPE COD FRI MRNG. HIGH PRES BLDG INTO
MID ALTC SHOULD PROVIDE GOOD WX FOR THE END OF THE WORKWK AND THEN A
VERY PLSNT WKND. HIGHS IN THE MU60S...LOWS GNRLY IN THE 40S XCPT
L50S IN THE CITIES. THIS IS PRETTY CLOSE TO CLIMO NORMS FOR THE
LATTER PART OF OCT.

A DRY CD FNT MAY COME THRU THE AREA SUN...THEN IT`S LOOKING LK A
BIG RDG OF HIGH PRES MOVES OVR THE E CST FOR THE 1ST PART OF NEXT
WK. HIGHS A70 LOWS IN THE 40S XCPT L50S IN THE CITY AND ALONG THE BAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

VFR CONDS XPCTD THRU THE XTND PD. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO ABATE THU NGT.

&&

.MARINE...

SCA CONDS LKLY TO CONT THU NGT AND FRI. IT LOOKS LK WKND BOATING
CONDS SHOULD BE GOOD. WATER TEMPS IN THE M60S.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...BAJ/WOODY!







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220750
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
350 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
SLOW WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS ~1008 MB SFC LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFF THE SE
VA/NE NC COAST...WITH STRONG UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WEST CENTRAL
VA. AREA OF SHOWERS OVERSPREADING PIEDMONT EARLY THIS MORNING UNDER
THE COLD POOL ALOFT...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS PUSHING OFF THE SE VA/NE NC COAST ASSOCIATED W/ SFC COLD FRONT
AND WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY. LATEST RAP AND SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE
ON THE ORDER OF 300-500 J/KG AS OF 07Z...SHIFTING OFFSHORE PRIOR TO
12Z SO WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF TSTMS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THAT
TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE TOO STABLE IN LOW LEVELS FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL TSTMS.

LATER TODAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW SLOWLY PUSHES ESE AND SHOULD BE
CENTERED OFFSHORE BY 15-18Z. WILL CARRY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
(60-80%) POPS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE MORNING AS DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE FAVORABLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD (CHC POPS
ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR NE NC WHERE LESS MOISTURE
RESIDES). AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS OFFSHORE...DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND SHOULD END MUCH CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIP THIS AFTN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR NE NC...WHILE
FAVORABLE LIFT AND MOISTURE PERSIST OVER NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY TO CAT POPS ON THE ERN SHORE THROUGH THE
AFTN...TAPERED TO 20% OR LOWER FROM SW SIDE OF METRO RICHMOND ON
SW. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK UP HOWEVER...MAY SEE SOME PEEKS
OF SUN ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL VA BY MID-LATE AFTN BUT OVERALL IT WILL
STAY BKN/OVC. FAVOR COOLER END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...GENLY NO
BETTER THAN THE LOWER 60S OVER MOST AREAS..RANGING FROM LWR TO MID
60S ACRS THE FAR SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 F OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES FROM CAROLINE COUNTY ON WEST. OTHER FEATURE TO
NOTE WILL BE THE INCREASING NW WINDS BY AFTN AS THE SFC LOW
INTENSIFIES FAIRLY RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST. GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY LATER AFTN/EVENING (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST).

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE TONIGHT. HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ERN SHORE THIS EVENING...GENLY ONLY 20%
POPS OR LOWER ELSEWHERE AFTER 00Z. DECREASING CLOUDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA/NC OVERNIGHT. REMAINING BREEZY TO
WINDY ESP NE SECTIONS. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 40S ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95 TO THE LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT IN BETWEEN SUB 1000 MB SFC
LOW OFF LONG ISLAND AND 1020 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY.
EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACRS THE
ERN SHORE...25-30 MPH ELSEWHERE. A 20% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE. STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY
N/E TO PARTLY SUNNY S/W (MAYBE MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE FAR SW).
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 F ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE
MID-UPPER 60S SW.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND
MILDER TEMPS. HIGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS WELL TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY
MIDWEEK. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY (PERHAPS WARMER TUESDAY). LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LO PRES WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN
WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND AND CANADIAN MARITIMES CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. UPR LVL LO
WILL SWING OVR THE AREA THEN OFF THE CST TODAY INTO THIS
EVENG...BRINGING LWR CIGS (MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR) AND -RA TO THE TAF
SITES. NW OR N WINDS WILL PICK UP LATER THIS MORNG AND REMAIN
RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY INTO TNGT MOST TAF SITES. -RA WILL LAST
THE LONGEST OVR THE LWR MD/VA ERN SHR. BREEZY/WINDY OVR ERN HALF
OF THE REGION THRU THU...AS STRONG LO GRADUALLY MOVES AWAY TO THE
NE. COULD STILL BE SHOWERS OVR LWR MD (SBY) ALSO. HI PRES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR FRI AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
AS A COLD FRONT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE
AREA...WINDS HAVE INCREASED TEMPORARILY. MWS ISSUED FOR BRIEF
GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS IN THE CHESAPEAKE AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
VIRGINIA RIVERS. THESE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BEFORE INCREASING ONCE
AGAIN DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...
WITH LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFYING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS
     BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND
CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST WIND IS
GENERALLY 20-25KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT FOR MOST OF THE
MARINE AREA. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR LOW-END GALE CONDITIONS LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING PRIMARILY SUPPORTED BY
THE 21/12Z NAM. AT THIS TIME THE CURRENT SCA WAS MAINTAINED GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR ONLY MARGINAL GALE CONDITIONS...WITH AN ONSET
GENERALLY AT OR BEYOND 24HR FROM 4PM TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OCEAN. WITH THE
FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED
AT 5-7 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO
10-15KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>638-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AJZ/LSA







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220725
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
325 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS UPPER LOW PRESSURE
EXITS EASTWARD. A STRENGTHENING HIGH WILL DRY AND WARM THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY REGION INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MATURATION OF LOW PRES IS STILL MDL PROGGED OVR THE COAST BY DAYS
END AND OVRALL SBSDNC WL GRADUALLY SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
OVR MOST OF THE UPR OH VALLEY AREA...ALTHOUGH SLGT SHWR CHCS MAY
LINGER INTO EVE OVR THE RIDGES WITH THE SHARPER UPSLOPE
ASSISTANCE.

COLD TEMPS WL LINGER THOUGH AS COLD...TO NEUTRAL ADVCTN CONTS ON
THE REAR FLANK OF THE EXITING LOW. TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES UNDR THE
AVGS WERE MASSAGED USING SREF MEANS AND BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHRTWV RIDGING IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS RMNG PCPN CHCS TNGT...AND
INTO FRIDAY.

THEREAFTER...NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF HAVE CONSISTENTLY DEPICTED THE
APCH...AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK SHRTWV IN NW FLOW ON FRIDAY. GIVEN
DEPICTIONS OF A LTD MID LVL MSTR FIELD...CAPPED LOW LVLS AFTR MID
LVL WARMING...AND AN ABSENT PCPN SPPRTG OMEGA FIELD...HAVE DECIDED
TO ELIMINATE THE ALREADY SLGT POP FORECAST IN FAVOR A STRENGTHENING
DRY TREND.

ANOTHER SUCH DISTURBANCE IS PROJECTED FOR A SATURDAY CROSSING...BUT
THE RAIN POTENTIAL LKS EQUALLY SLIM GIVEN SIMILIAR LIMITATIONS AS
FRIDAY AS WELL AS A MORE NWD TRACK OF THE LOW CNTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS FEATURE MODERATION TWD THE SEASONAL AVGS...FORECAST
FOR WAS TWEAKED AGAIN USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS AND SREF MEANS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS THRU ERLY
NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. A WKNG TROF IS PROGGED FOR A
MID WK PASSAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E. SEASONALLY COOL WKEND TEMPS
ARE EXP TO INCR TO ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WDSPRD IFR CONDS AND SCT SHWRS ARE EXPD THRU ERLY THIS MRNG WITH
LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE UNDER AN UPR LOW ACRS THE RGN. WHILE CONDS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR LTR IN THE MRNG...THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPR
LOW WL KEEP MVFR CONDS INTO TNGT.

.AVIATION /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE EXPD INTO THU MRNG BEFORE THE UPR LOW EXITS THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07





000
FXUS61 KPHI 220614
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
214 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE
WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND ARRIVING IN NOVA SCOTIA
ON FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO OUR
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING FOR SUNDAY AND FOR THE
EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WHILE THE
UPPER LOW IS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHWEST.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PARTS OF OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER
LOW CAN EASILY BE PICKED OUT ON A RADAR LOOP. AS THE UPPER LOW
DRIFTS TO THE EAST, THE SHOWERS WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE CYCLONIC
FLOW AND GRADUALLY PUSH TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
GENERALLY SPEAKING THE POOR MANS 500MB ENSEMBLE SHOWS GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS. ALL SHOW THE TROUGHING
TO OUR WEST CLOSING OFF AS MULTIPLE IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH ITS
BASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS IT CONTINUES TO CLOSE OFF A
BETTER DEFINED SURFACE LOW TAKES SHAPE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
DELMARVA/SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTLINE. THE STRONGEST OF THE MID-
LEVEL IMPULSES TONIGHT DIVES INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AS IT AND
IT BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF BUT DEEPENS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE. AMPLE
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE COMBINED WITH GOOD CYCLONIC JET
DYNAMICS AND DIV-Q FIELD TO SEE CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS A BROAD
PORTION OF OUR EASTERN HALF WITH MODERATE RAINFALL EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE ALLOWED INTO THE UPPER-50S TO MAYBE THE
LOW-60S IN THE SOUTHERN PLACES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND
WITH SOME MIXING OCCURRING IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS GUSTS COULD TOP
OUT AROUND 25 WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW...RAW INDEED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA COAST
THIS EVENING. THE FEATURE WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH AND
NORTHEASTWARD PASSING OVER THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON FRIDAY
MORNING.

WE CONTINUE TO ANTICIPATE RAIN FOR TONIGHT. THE RAIN
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT IN MUCH OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHEASTERN DELAWARE. HOWEVER, MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE, CLOSER TO THE MID
LEVEL LOW.

A FAIR AMOUNT OF LINGERING WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER
OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A CLOUDY AND DAMP DAY
WITH A NORTHWEST WIND AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN. WE HAVE GONE WITH
THE LOW END OF THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE MAINLY IN THE 50S IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

GRADUAL DRYING IS EXPECTED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE
COURSE OF THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE MID LEVEL LOW CONTINUES
TO MOVE AWAY FROM OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO EASE
BACK TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS FOR LATE OCTOBER.

A SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO
PASS OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE FROM
THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT, SO WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
PRECIPITATION AT THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH THE MORNING TO MVFR AND IN
SOME AREAS, IFR, FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND RAIN WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD
THE REGION. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT AT THE TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING OF
THUNDER AT THE TERMINALS AND THEREFORE IS NOT IN THE LATEST TAFS.

NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY BECOMING GUSTY AND MORE NORTHERLY THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPEEDS AROUND 5-10 KNOTS WILL INCREASE
TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS. WITH THE WINDS
INCREASING, CEILINGS SHOULD RISE A BIT AND REMAIN IN THE MVFR
RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR IN PERIODS OF
RAIN.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH THIS MORNING...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST- WEST FLOW WITH SHOWERS OVERSPREADING FROM THE WEST AND
THEN SOUTHWEST.

TODAY...WE UPGRADED TO GALES ACROSS THE LOWER BAY AND
SOUTHERN TWO ZONES STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE JUST
OFFSHORE WRAPS UP. SMALL CRAFT ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE THURSDAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE
MID-30S LIKELY SOUTHWARD AND LOW-30S NORTHWARD. SEAS INCREASE TO
AROUND 5 TO 6 FEET LATE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...A GALE WARNING IS IN PLACE FOR THE
WATERS OFF DELAWARE AND FOR THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR REMAINING WATERS. WE ARE
EXPECTING A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ431-454-455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/MEOLA
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220607
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
207 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER
CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE INITIAL COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
MIDDLE BAY WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHEAST INTO HAMPTON ROADS AND THEN
NE NC. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS TO 20 TO 30 MPH HAVE OCCURRED WITH
THE FRONT THOUGH THESE GUSTS HAVE BEEN BRIEF AND ONLY RECORDED AT
A FEW STATIONS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SEEN ON WV IMAGERY
OVER WEST VA AND PUSHING INTO WESTERN VA CONTINUES TO DIVE SE
AROUND THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER LOW. THIS WILL IN TURN
ALLOW A CLOSED LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. THE
INITIAL SHOWERS WHICH DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE ARE
PUSHING ACROSS THE BAY AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE WAVE ARE ALSO MOVING ACROSS THE TIDEWATER
INTO HAMPTON ROADS AND ACROSS NE NC. RAIN ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL
VA HAS DECREASED AND ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS CENTRAL VA FOR THE NEST SEVERAL HOURS. THE BEST FORCING FOR
SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST. SOME HI RES WRF RUNS
AND THE NAM12 SUGGEST MORE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS RE-DEVELOPING
ACROSS CENTRAL VA BEFORE DAYBREAK AND LINGERING INTO MID MORNING.
HAVE TWEAKED POPS FOR WED MORNING INCREASING CHC POPS ACROSS
CENTRAL VA THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 40S...TO
LOW/MID 50S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE WED. AFTER A BRIEF
INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THERE
WILL BE A FAIRLY SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE PIEDMONT AND
THE THE COAST. THE ERN SHORE IN PARTICULAR APPEARS TO BE SET FOR
A CLOUDY/COOL DAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. GIVEN RECENT MODEL TRENDS
HAVE PULLED THE CHC POPS FURTHER WEST WED MORNING TO COVER CENTRAL
VA. BELIEVE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AS
THE UPPER LOW WRAPS UP OVER THE AREA. WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS
LIMITED TO THE TO THE EASTERN VA WITH LIKELY 60-70% POPS ON THE
EASTERN SHORE. FAVOR COOLER END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WED...MID
60S SW TO AROUND 60/LOWER 60S NE. OTHER FEATURE TO NOTE WILL BE
THE INCREASING NW WINDS BY AFTN AS THE SFC LOW INTENSIFIES FAIRLY
RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST. GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
LATER AFTN/EVENING (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST).

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE WED NIGHT INTO THU...LOCATING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER CHANCES
BY THEN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SHORE (20%). DECREASING
CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. COOL AGAIN THU WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 60-65.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT IN BETWEEN SUB 1000 MB SFC LOW
OFF LONG ISLAND AND 1020 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY. EXPECT
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACRS THE ERN
SHORE...15-25 MPH ELSEWHERE.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR SUNSHINE...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND MILDER
TEMPS. HIGH FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS WELL TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY
MIDWEEK. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY (PERHAPS WARMER TUESDAY). LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LO PRES WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN
WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND AND CANADIAN MARITIMES CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. UPR LVL LO
WILL SWING OVR THE AREA THEN OFF THE CST TODAY INTO THIS
EVENG...BRINGING LWR CIGS (MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR) AND -RA TO THE TAF
SITES. NW OR N WINDS WILL PICK UP LATER THIS MORNG AND REMAIN
RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY INTO TNGT MOST TAF SITES. -RA WILL LAST
THE LONGEST OVR THE LWR MD/VA ERN SHR. BREEZY/WINDY OVR ERN HALF
OF THE REGION THRU THU...AS STRONG LO GRADUALLY MOVES AWAY TO THE
NE. COULD STILL BE SHOWERS OVR LWR MD (SBY) ALSO. HI PRES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR FRI AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
AS A COLD FRONT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE
AREA...WINDS HAVE INCREASED TEMPORARILY. MWS ISSUED FOR BRIEF
GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS IN THE CHESAPEAKE AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
VIRGINIA RIVERS. THESE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BEFORE INCREASING ONCE
AGAIN DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...
WITH LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFYING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS
     BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND
CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST WIND IS
GENERALLY 20-25KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT FOR MOST OF THE
MARINE AREA. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR LOW-END GALE CONDITIONS LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING PRIMARILY SUPPORTED BY
THE 21/12Z NAM. AT THIS TIME THE CURRENT SCA WAS MAINTAINED GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR ONLY MARGINAL GALE CONDITIONS...WITH AN ONSET
GENERALLY AT OR BEYOND 24HR FROM 4PM TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OCEAN. WITH THE
FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED
AT 5-7 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO
10-15KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>638-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/JAO
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AJZ/LSA







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220422 CCA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1221 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS UPPER LOW PRESSURE
EXITS EASTWARD. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRY AND WARM THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE POST MIDNGT UPDATE AS THE EVE SHIFT
EFFECTIVELY CAPTURED THE OVRNGT TRENDS WITH UPR LOW PRES BGNG TO
WOBBLE EWD.

MATURATION OF THAT LOW IS STILL MDL PROGGED OVR THE COAST BY DAYS
END AND OVRALL SBSDNC WL SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVR MOST OF
THE UPR OH VALLEY AREA...ALTHOUGH SLGT SHWR CHCS WL LINGER OVR
THE RIDGES WITH THE SHARPER UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHRTWV RIDGING IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS RMNG PCPN CHCS TNGT...AND
INTO FRIDAY.

THEREAFTER...NAM AND GFS HAVE CONSISTENTLY DEPICTED THE APCH...AND
PASSAGE OF A WEAK SHRTWV IN NW FLOW ON FRIDAY. GIVEN DEPICTIONS OF
A LTD MID LVL MSTR FIELD...CAPPED LOW LVLS AFTR MID LVL WARMING...AND
AN ABSENT PCPN SPPRTG OMEGA FIELD...HAVE DECIDED TO PERSIST WITH
LAST NGTS DRY FORECAST.

ANOTHER SUCH DISTURBANCE IS PROJECTED FOR A SATURDAY CROSSING...BUT
SHWR POTENTIAL LKS EQUALLY SLIM GIVEN SIMILIAR LIMITATIONS AS
FRIDAY AS WELL AS A MORE NWD TRACK OF THE LOW CNTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS FEATURE MODERATION TWD THE SEASONAL AVGS...FORECAST
FOR WAS TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS AND SREF MEANS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WDSPRD IFR CONDS AND SCT SHWRS ARE EXPD THRU ERLY THIS MRNG WITH
LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE UNDER AN UPR LOW ACRS THE RGN. WHILE CONDS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR LTR IN THE MRNG...THE PROXIMATY OF THE UPR
LOW WL KEEP MVFR CONDS INTO TNGT.

.AVIATION /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE EXPD INTO THU MRNG BEFORE THE UPR LOW EXITS THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220422 CCA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1221 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS UPPER LOW PRESSURE
EXITS EASTWARD. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRY AND WARM THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE POST MIDNGT UPDATE AS THE EVE SHIFT
EFFECTIVELY CAPTURED THE OVRNGT TRENDS WITH UPR LOW PRES BGNG TO
WOBBLE EWD.

MATURATION OF THAT LOW IS STILL MDL PROGGED OVR THE COAST BY DAYS
END AND OVRALL SBSDNC WL SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVR MOST OF
THE UPR OH VALLEY AREA...ALTHOUGH SLGT SHWR CHCS WL LINGER OVR
THE RIDGES WITH THE SHARPER UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHRTWV RIDGING IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS RMNG PCPN CHCS TNGT...AND
INTO FRIDAY.

THEREAFTER...NAM AND GFS HAVE CONSISTENTLY DEPICTED THE APCH...AND
PASSAGE OF A WEAK SHRTWV IN NW FLOW ON FRIDAY. GIVEN DEPICTIONS OF
A LTD MID LVL MSTR FIELD...CAPPED LOW LVLS AFTR MID LVL WARMING...AND
AN ABSENT PCPN SPPRTG OMEGA FIELD...HAVE DECIDED TO PERSIST WITH
LAST NGTS DRY FORECAST.

ANOTHER SUCH DISTURBANCE IS PROJECTED FOR A SATURDAY CROSSING...BUT
SHWR POTENTIAL LKS EQUALLY SLIM GIVEN SIMILIAR LIMITATIONS AS
FRIDAY AS WELL AS A MORE NWD TRACK OF THE LOW CNTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS FEATURE MODERATION TWD THE SEASONAL AVGS...FORECAST
FOR WAS TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS AND SREF MEANS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WDSPRD IFR CONDS AND SCT SHWRS ARE EXPD THRU ERLY THIS MRNG WITH
LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE UNDER AN UPR LOW ACRS THE RGN. WHILE CONDS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR LTR IN THE MRNG...THE PROXIMATY OF THE UPR
LOW WL KEEP MVFR CONDS INTO TNGT.

.AVIATION /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE EXPD INTO THU MRNG BEFORE THE UPR LOW EXITS THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220416
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1216 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS UPPER LOW PRESSURE
EXITS EASTWARD. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRY AND WARM THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY REGION AFTER A SLIGHT FRIDAY SHOWER CHANCE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE POST MIDNGT UPDATE AS THE EVE SHIFT
EFFECTIVELY CAPTURED THE OVRNGT TRENDS WITH UPR LOW PRES BGNG TO
WOBBLE EWD.

MATURATION OF THAT LOW IS STILL MDL PROGGED OVR THE COAST BY DAYS
END AND OVRALL SBSDNC WL SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVR MOST OF
THE UPR OH VALLEY AREA...ALTHOUGH SLGT SHWR CHCS WL LINGER OVR
THE RIDGES WITH THE SHARPER UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHRTWV RIDGING IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS RMNG PCPN CHCS TNGT...AND
INTO FRIDAY.

THEREAFTER...NAM AND GFS HAVE CONSISTENTLY DEPICTED THE APCH...AND
PASSAGE OF A WEAK SHRTWV IN NW FLOW ON FRIDAY. GIVEN DEPICTIONS OF
A LTD MID LVL MSTR FIELD...CAPPED LOW LVLS AFTR MID LVL WARMING...AND
AN ABSENT PCPN SPPRTG OMEGA FIELD...HAVE DECIDED TO PERSIST WITH
LAST NGTS DRY FORECAST.

ANOTHER SUCH DISTURBANCE IS PROJECTED FOR A SATURDAY CROSSING...BUT
SHWR POTENTIAL LKS EQUALLY SLIM GIVEN SIMILIAR LIMITATIONS AS
FRIDAY AS WELL AS A MORE NWD TRACK OF THE LOW CNTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS FEATURE MODERATION TWD THE SEASONAL AVGS...FORECAST
FOR WAS TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS AND SREF MEANS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WDSPRD IFR CONDS AND SCT SHWRS ARE EXPD THRU ERLY THIS MRNG WITH
LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE UNDER AN UPR LOW ACRS THE RGN. WHILE CONDS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR LTR IN THE MRNG...THE PROXIMATY OF THE UPR
LOW WL KEEP MVFR CONDS INTO TNGT.

.AVIATION /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE EXPD INTO THU MRNG BEFORE THE UPR LOW EXITS THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07





000
FXUS61 KLWX 220354
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1154 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

POPS IN THE NERN PART OF THE FCST AREA WERE INCRSD DUE TO ONGOING
RA. NO FLD THREAT.

PRVS DSCN...

LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING.
NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE MOVED INTO THE REGION AS PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO RISE BEHIND THE LOW. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC TONIGHT. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS FEATURE...COOLER AIR
ALOFT AND VORTICITY ADVECTION HAS MADE FOR AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TODAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVED WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. ACTIVITY WAS CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN AND
SMALL HAIL. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LED TO INCREASED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AS WELL. AS OF 00Z...THE PRESSURE SURGE WAS AT THE WATERS AND
GUSTS UP TO 25KTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. WINDS BEHIND THE SURGE ARE EXPECTED
TO LESSEN TONIGHT BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE AS THE
SFC LOW MOVES TO THE EAST. NW WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND LIMIT THE FORMATION OF
FOG DEVELOPMENT.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER LOW
SPINS OVER THE REGION...MORE SHOWERS WILL ENTER THE REGION BUT THE
COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN EARLIER. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF A
QUARTER INCH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE UPSLOPE REGION AS AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL LEAD TO
CONSTANT LIFT.

LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S IN THE HIGHLANDS TO THE LOW
50S ALONG AND EAST OF I-95.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
REACHES THE GULF STREAM. WINDS STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 15-20 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRENGTHENING
LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WRAPAROUND RAINFALL
LIKELY AT TIMES OVER EASTERN MD AND PORTIONS OF VA. UPSLOPE RAIN
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL FAVOR LIQUID RAIN OVER MOST
OF THE HIGHLANDS...BUT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN GRANT...PENDLETON
AND HIGHLAND MAY SEE SNOW MIXED IN. LOW TEMPS IN THE 40S ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TIME OF PARTIAL ECLIPSE FOR DC THU - 5:52 PM TO 6:17 PM. BALT IS
5:51 TO 6:15. QUSTN WL BE WHETHER IT WL BE VSBL DUE TO CLDS...
WHICH SHOULD BE ON THE WANE DURG THIS TIME PD.

PRVS DSCN...

BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY THURSDAY AS SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE  SLOWLY SLIDES UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. DOWNSLOPING OF
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ELIMINATE POPS LOCALLY DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...WHERE UPSLOPE
RAIN IS POSSIBLE...AND THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA ALONG
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE
WEAKER FRIDAY. THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL SEE QUIET/DRY
WEATHER AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING KEEPS PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT TEMPS
THIS WEEKEND TO BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
MID-60S...AND TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK TO BE JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE TERMINALS TONIGHT AND NW WINDS
5-10KTS ARE EXPECTED. DCA/MTN WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTS UP TO 20KTS
OVERNIGHT. SHRA WILL MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT IMPACTING DCA/BWI/MTN.
SOME SHOWERS ARE HEAVY RESULTING IN REDUCED VSBYS. THEY WILL
LIKELY STAY ABOVE IFR CONDITIONS. AS THE RAIN MOVES AWY FROM THE
TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE IN. THE WIND FIELD ALOFT WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND ONLY ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

NW WINDS 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KTS ARE EXPECTED EARLY WED
MORNING. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. GUSTY NW WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT IAD/DCA/BWI/MTN BY
WED AFTERNOON.

THU...VFR. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25KT.

FRI...VFR. NW WINDS AROUND 1OKT.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF AVIATION HAZARDS OVER THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.


CLDY WED NGT BUT CIGS XPCTD TO BE VFR. BRZY NW WINDS XPCTD WED NGT
AND THU. VFR/NO PROBS FRI AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
PRESSURE SURGE MOVED ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING AND GUSTY NW
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT. A SCA IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE
WATERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR GALES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OFF THE NJ/DELMARVA SHORE. MODEL FORECASTS ARE
MARGINAL FOR GALES...SO FOR NOW OPTED TO EXTEND SCA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS LIKELY TO REACH 30KT IN SOME PARTS OF
CHES BAY AT LEAST.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES UP THE NORTHEAST COAST. WINDS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WATERS...THOUGH CURRENTLY THINK THEY
WILL STAY MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20 KNOT RANGE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...KS/HAS/CEB








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220254
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1054 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY... FOLLOWED BY DRIER
CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE INITIAL COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
MIDDLE BAY WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHEAST INTO HAMPTON ROADS AND THEN
NE NC. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS TO 20 TO 30 MPH HAVE OCCURRED WITH
THE FRONT THOUGH THESE GUSTS HAVE BEEN BRIEF AND ONLY RECORDED AT
A FEW STATIONS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SEEN ON WV IMAGERY
OVER WEST VA AND PUSHING INTO WESTERN VA CONTINUES TO DIVE SE
AROUND THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER LOW. THIS WILL IN TURN
ALLOW A CLOSED LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. THE
INITIAL SHOWERS WHICH DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE ARE
PUSHING ACROSS THE BAY AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE WAVE ARE ALSO MOVING ACROSS THE TIDEWATER
INTO HAMPTON ROADS AND ACROSS NE NC. RAIN ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL
VA HAS DECREASED AND ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS CENTRAL VA FOR THE NEST SEVERAL HOURS. THE BEST FORCING FOR
SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST. SOME HI RES WRF RUNS
AND THE NAM12 SUGGEST MORE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS RE-DEVELOPING
ACROSS CENTRAL VA BEFORE DAYBREAK AND LINGERING INTO MID MORNING.
HAVE TWEAKED POPS FOR WED MORNING INCREASING CHC POPS ACROSS
CENTRAL VA THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 40S...TO
LOW/MID 50S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE WED. AFTER A BRIEF
INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THERE
WILL BE A FAIRLY SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE PIEDMONT AND
THE THE COAST. THE ERN SHORE IN PARTICULAR APPEARS TO BE SET FOR
A CLOUDY/COOL DAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. GIVEN RECENT MODEL TRENDS
HAVE PULLED THE CHC POPS FURTHER WEST WED MORNING TO COVER CENTRAL
VA. BELIEVE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AS
THE UPPER LOW WRAPS UP OVER THE AREA. WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS
LIMITED TO THE TO THE EASTERN VA WITH LIKELY 60-70% POPS ON THE
EASTERN SHORE. FAVOR COOLER END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WED...MID
60S SW TO AROUND 60/LOWER 60S NE. OTHER FEATURE TO NOTE WILL BE
THE INCREASING NW WINDS BY AFTN AS THE SFC LOW INTENSIFIES FAIRLY
RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST. GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
LATER AFTN/EVENING (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST).

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE WED NIGHT INTO THU...LOCATING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER CHANCES
BY THEN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SHORE (20%). DECREASING
CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. COOL AGAIN THU WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 60-65.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT IN BETWEEN SUB 1000 MB SFC LOW
OFF LONG ISLAND AND 1020 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY. EXPECT
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACRS THE ERN
SHORE...15-25 MPH ELSEWHERE.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR SUNSHINE...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND MILDER
TEMPS. HIGH FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS WELL TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY
MIDWEEK. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY (PERHAPS WARMER TUESDAY). LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...UPDATED SEVERAL TAFS FOR RECENT TRENDS AND TO
INCLUDE IFR AT MOST LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOUD BASES ARE
LOWERING WITH MVFR DEVELOPING MORE QUICKLY THAN EXPECTED AND NAM
MOS IS LOOKING MORE REASONABLE.

A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE CWA WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTY N/NW WINDS OCCUR BRIEFLY BEHIND THE FRONT. A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS (EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS) ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AS AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS
THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT SHOWERS AND CEILINGS TO LOWER DURING THIS
TIME TO AT LEAST MVFR. DID NOT GO AS LOW AS NAM WHICH HAS MOST
LOCATIONS GOING TO IFR. WILL REEVALUATE FOR THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE TOWARD MIDDAY. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THE EASTERN SHORE.

OUTLOOK...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA WED EVENING AS THE
SURFACE HIGH NUDGES FARTHER EAST. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST
OF THE FA THROUGH FRIDAY WITH STRONGER NW WINDS ALONG THE COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.MARINE...
AS A COLD FRONT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE
AREA...WINDS HAVE INCREASED TEMPORARILY. MWS ISSUED FOR BRIEF
GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS IN THE CHESAPEAKE AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
VIRGINIA RIVERS. THESE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BEFORE INCREASING ONCE
AGAIN DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...
WITH LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFYING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS
...BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND
CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST WIND IS
GENERALLY 20-25KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT FOR MOST OF THE
MARINE AREA. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR LOW-END GALE CONDITIONS LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING PRIMARILY SUPPORTED BY
THE 21/12Z NAM. AT THIS TIME THE CURRENT SCA WAS MAINTAINED GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR ONLY MARGINAL GALE CONDITIONS...WITH AN ONSET
GENERALLY AT OR BEYOND 24HR FROM 4PM TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OCEAN. WITH THE
FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED
AT 5-7 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO
10-15KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ630>638-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/JAO
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ/LSA







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220254
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1054 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY... FOLLOWED BY DRIER
CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE INITIAL COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
MIDDLE BAY WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHEAST INTO HAMPTON ROADS AND THEN
NE NC. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS TO 20 TO 30 MPH HAVE OCCURRED WITH
THE FRONT THOUGH THESE GUSTS HAVE BEEN BRIEF AND ONLY RECORDED AT
A FEW STATIONS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SEEN ON WV IMAGERY
OVER WEST VA AND PUSHING INTO WESTERN VA CONTINUES TO DIVE SE
AROUND THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER LOW. THIS WILL IN TURN
ALLOW A CLOSED LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. THE
INITIAL SHOWERS WHICH DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE ARE
PUSHING ACROSS THE BAY AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE WAVE ARE ALSO MOVING ACROSS THE TIDEWATER
INTO HAMPTON ROADS AND ACROSS NE NC. RAIN ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL
VA HAS DECREASED AND ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS CENTRAL VA FOR THE NEST SEVERAL HOURS. THE BEST FORCING FOR
SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST. SOME HI RES WRF RUNS
AND THE NAM12 SUGGEST MORE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS RE-DEVELOPING
ACROSS CENTRAL VA BEFORE DAYBREAK AND LINGERING INTO MID MORNING.
HAVE TWEAKED POPS FOR WED MORNING INCREASING CHC POPS ACROSS
CENTRAL VA THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 40S...TO
LOW/MID 50S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE WED. AFTER A BRIEF
INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THERE
WILL BE A FAIRLY SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE PIEDMONT AND
THE THE COAST. THE ERN SHORE IN PARTICULAR APPEARS TO BE SET FOR
A CLOUDY/COOL DAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. GIVEN RECENT MODEL TRENDS
HAVE PULLED THE CHC POPS FURTHER WEST WED MORNING TO COVER CENTRAL
VA. BELIEVE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AS
THE UPPER LOW WRAPS UP OVER THE AREA. WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS
LIMITED TO THE TO THE EASTERN VA WITH LIKELY 60-70% POPS ON THE
EASTERN SHORE. FAVOR COOLER END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WED...MID
60S SW TO AROUND 60/LOWER 60S NE. OTHER FEATURE TO NOTE WILL BE
THE INCREASING NW WINDS BY AFTN AS THE SFC LOW INTENSIFIES FAIRLY
RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST. GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
LATER AFTN/EVENING (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST).

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE WED NIGHT INTO THU...LOCATING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER CHANCES
BY THEN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SHORE (20%). DECREASING
CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. COOL AGAIN THU WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 60-65.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT IN BETWEEN SUB 1000 MB SFC LOW
OFF LONG ISLAND AND 1020 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY. EXPECT
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACRS THE ERN
SHORE...15-25 MPH ELSEWHERE.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR SUNSHINE...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND MILDER
TEMPS. HIGH FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS WELL TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY
MIDWEEK. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY (PERHAPS WARMER TUESDAY). LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...UPDATED SEVERAL TAFS FOR RECENT TRENDS AND TO
INCLUDE IFR AT MOST LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOUD BASES ARE
LOWERING WITH MVFR DEVELOPING MORE QUICKLY THAN EXPECTED AND NAM
MOS IS LOOKING MORE REASONABLE.

A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE CWA WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTY N/NW WINDS OCCUR BRIEFLY BEHIND THE FRONT. A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS (EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS) ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AS AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS
THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT SHOWERS AND CEILINGS TO LOWER DURING THIS
TIME TO AT LEAST MVFR. DID NOT GO AS LOW AS NAM WHICH HAS MOST
LOCATIONS GOING TO IFR. WILL REEVALUATE FOR THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE TOWARD MIDDAY. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THE EASTERN SHORE.

OUTLOOK...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA WED EVENING AS THE
SURFACE HIGH NUDGES FARTHER EAST. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST
OF THE FA THROUGH FRIDAY WITH STRONGER NW WINDS ALONG THE COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.MARINE...
AS A COLD FRONT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE
AREA...WINDS HAVE INCREASED TEMPORARILY. MWS ISSUED FOR BRIEF
GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS IN THE CHESAPEAKE AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
VIRGINIA RIVERS. THESE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BEFORE INCREASING ONCE
AGAIN DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...
WITH LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFYING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS
...BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND
CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST WIND IS
GENERALLY 20-25KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT FOR MOST OF THE
MARINE AREA. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR LOW-END GALE CONDITIONS LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING PRIMARILY SUPPORTED BY
THE 21/12Z NAM. AT THIS TIME THE CURRENT SCA WAS MAINTAINED GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR ONLY MARGINAL GALE CONDITIONS...WITH AN ONSET
GENERALLY AT OR BEYOND 24HR FROM 4PM TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OCEAN. WITH THE
FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED
AT 5-7 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO
10-15KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ630>638-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/JAO
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ/LSA







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220150
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
950 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY... FOLLOWED BY DRIER
CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE INITIAL COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
MIDDLE BAY WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHEAST INTO HAMPTON ROADS AND THEN
NE NC. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS TO 20 TO 30 MPH HAVE OCCURRED WITH
THE FRONT THOUGH THESE GUSTS HAVE BEEN BRIEF AND ONLY RECORDED AT
A FEW STATIONS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SEEN ON WV IMAGERY
OVER WEST VA AND PUSHING INTO WESTERN VA CONTINUES TO DIVE SE
AROUND THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER LOW. THIS WILL IN TURN
ALLOW A CLOSED LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. THE
INITIAL SHOWERS WHICH DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE ARE
PUSHING ACROSS THE BAY AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE WAVE ARE ALSO MOVING ACROSS THE TIDEWATER
INTO HAMPTON ROADS AND ACROSS NE NC. RAIN ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL
VA HAS DECREASED AND ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS CENTRAL VA FOR THE NEST SEVERAL HOURS. THE BEST FORCING FOR
SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST. SOME HI RES WRF RUNS
AND THE NAM12 SUGGEST MORE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS RE-DEVELOPING
ACROSS CENTRAL VA BEFORE DAYBREAK AND LINGERING INTO MID MORNING.
HAVE TWEAKED POPS FOR WED MORNING INCREASING CHC POPS ACROSS
CENTRAL VA THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 40S...TO
LOW/MID 50S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE WED. AFTER A BRIEF
INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THERE
WILL BE A FAIRLY SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE PIEDMONT AND
THE THE COAST. THE ERN SHORE IN PARTICULAR APPEARS TO BE SET FOR
A CLOUDY/COOL DAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. GIVEN RECENT MODEL TRENDS
HAVE PULLED THE CHC POPS FURTHER WEST WED MORNING TO COVER CENTRAL
VA. BELIEVE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AS
THE UPPER LOW WRAPS UP OVER THE AREA. WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS
LIMITED TO THE TO THE EASTERN VA WITH LIKELY 60-70% POPS ON THE
EASTERN SHORE. FAVOR COOLER END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WED...MID
60S SW TO AROUND 60/LOWER 60S NE. OTHER FEATURE TO NOTE WILL BE
THE INCREASING NW WINDS BY AFTN AS THE SFC LOW INTENSIFIES FAIRLY
RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST. GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
LATER AFTN/EVENING (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST).

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE WED NIGHT INTO THU...LOCATING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER CHANCES
BY THEN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SHORE (20%). DECREASING
CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. COOL AGAIN THU WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 60-65.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT IN BETWEEN SUB 1000 MB SFC LOW
OFF LONG ISLAND AND 1020 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY. EXPECT
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACRS THE ERN
SHORE...15-25 MPH ELSEWHERE.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR SUNSHINE...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND MILDER
TEMPS. HIGH FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS WELL TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY
MIDWEEK. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY (PERHAPS WARMER TUESDAY). LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE CWA WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. GUSTY N/NW WINDS OCCUR BRIEFLY BEHIND THE FRONT. A PERIOD
OF SHOWERS (EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS) ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS AS AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE
AREA. EXPECT SHOWERS AND CEILINGS TO LOWER DURING THIS TIME TO AT
LEAST MVFR. DID NOT GO AS LOW AS NAM WHICH HAS MOST LOCATIONS GOING
TO IFR. WILL REEVALUATE FOR THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS SLOWLY
IMPROVE TOWARD MIDDAY. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THE
EASTERN SHORE.

OUTLOOK...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA WED EVENING AS THE
SURFACE HIGH NUDGES FARTHER EAST. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST
OF THE FA THROUGH FRIDAY WITH STRONGER NW WINDS ALONG THE COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...WITH
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFYING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE SCA
CONDITIONS...BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND
CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST WIND IS
GENERALLY 20-25KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT FOR MOST OF THE MARINE
AREA. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR LOW-END GALE CONDITIONS LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING PRIMARILY SUPPORTED BY
THE 21/12Z NAM. AT THIS TIME THE CURRENT SCA WAS MAINTAINED GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR ONLY MARGINAL GALE CONDITIONS...WITH AN ONSET
GENERALLY AT OR BEYOND 24HR FROM 4PM TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OCEAN. WITH THE
FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT
5-7 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT AND
SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ630>638-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/JAO
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220134
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
934 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING...THEN PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY WHILE
SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY...
FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER SE
PA/SOUTHERN NJ WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW FROM THIS LOW INTO
SW VA. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING...CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. A STRONG SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY SEEN ON WV IMAGERY OVER THE OH VALLEY IS PROGGED TO
DIVE SE AROUND THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER LOW...REACHING
VA/NC OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL IN TURN ALLOW A CLOSED LOW TO DEVELOP
OVER THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. AS THE SHORTWAVE/UPPER TROUGH
APPROACH LATE TODAY...EXPECT SHOWERS TO INITIALLY DEVELOP OVER NW
ZONES BEFORE SPREADING SOUTH/EAST OVERNIGHT. WILL CARRY 25-40%
POPS N-NW OF KRIC THROUGH 00Z. WITH THE LOW CUTTING OFF OVER US
TONIGHT...THE BEST FORCING FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS OR
HIGH-END CHANCE POPS (50-70%) ACROSS THE NORTHERN NECK/MIDDLE
PENINSULA ONTO THE EASTERN SHORE OVERNIGHT...DECREASING TO ~20
ACROSS SW ZONES (WHERE DRY CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL). CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ELEVATED TSTM OR TWO (GIVEN STEEP H5 TO H7
LAPSE RATES OF 6.5 TO 7C)...BUT WILL PRECLUDE FROM FORECAST ATTM
GIVEN FAIRLY STABLE LOW LEVELS. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 40S...TO
LOW/MID 50S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE WED. AFTER A BRIEF
INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE OVERNIGHT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS BECOME
FAIRLY DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS AS THE TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION
SWING FARTHER OFFSHORE...HOWEVER A FAIRLY SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT
PROGGED ALONG THE COAST. THE ERN SHORE IN PARTICULAR APPEARS TO BE
SET FOR A CLOUDY/COOL DAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. WILL THEREFORE KEEP
CHC POPS (25-50%) LIMITED TO FAR EASTERN VA...WITH LIKELY 60-70%
POPS ON THE EASTERN SHORE. COULD END UP BEING DRY OVER FAR W/SW
ZONES. QPF AMOUNTS TONIGHT/WED WILL AVG 0.25-0.75" ON THE ERN
SHORE...GENLY ONLY AROUND .10" OR LESS ELSEWHERE. FAVOR COOLER END
OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WED...MID 60S SW TO AROUND 60/LOWER 60S NE.
OTHER FEATURE TO NOTE WILL BE THE INCREASING NW WINDS BY AFTN AS
THE SFC LOW INTENSIFIES FAIRLY RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST. GUSTS TO
25-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATER AFTN/EVENING (ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST).

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE WED NIGHT INTO THU...LOCATING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER CHANCES
BY THEN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SHORE (20%). DECREASING
CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. COOL AGAIN THU WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 60-65.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT IN BETWEEN SUB 1000 MB SFC LOW
OFF LONG ISLAND AND 1020 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY. EXPECT
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACRS THE ERN
SHORE...15-25 MPH ELSEWHERE.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR SUNSHINE...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND MILDER
TEMPS. HIGH FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS WELL TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY
MIDWEEK. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY (PERHAPS WARMER TUESDAY). LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE CWA WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. GUSTY N/NW WINDS OCCUR BRIEFLY BEHIND THE FRONT. A PERIOD
OF SHOWERS (EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS) ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS AS AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE
AREA. EXPECT SHOWERS AND CEILINGS TO LOWER DURING THIS TIME TO AT
LEAST MVFR. DID NOT GO AS LOW AS NAM WHICH HAS MOST LOCATIONS GOING
TO IFR. WILL REEVALUATE FOR THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS SLOWLY
IMPROVE TOWARD MIDDAY. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THE
EASTERN SHORE.

OUTLOOK...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA WED EVENING AS THE
SURFACE HIGH NUDGES FARTHER EAST. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST
OF THE FA THROUGH FRIDAY WITH STRONGER NW WINDS ALONG THE COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...WITH
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFYING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE SCA
CONDITIONS...BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND
CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST WIND IS
GENERALLY 20-25KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT FOR MOST OF THE MARINE
AREA. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR LOW-END GALE CONDITIONS LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING PRIMARILY SUPPORTED BY
THE 21/12Z NAM. AT THIS TIME THE CURRENT SCA WAS MAINTAINED GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR ONLY MARGINAL GALE CONDITIONS...WITH AN ONSET
GENERALLY AT OR BEYOND 24HR FROM 4PM TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OCEAN. WITH THE
FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT
5-7 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT AND
SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ630>638-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220124 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
924 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
930PM UPDATE...CONTINUE TO RELY ON LATEST SAT/RADAR IMAGES AND
LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN TO PUT TOGETHER POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
SHOWER COVERAGE HAS BEEN SLOWLY DECREASING AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHWARD
OVER EASTERN THIRD OF MY FA. LOOKS TO BE A SMALL UPPER LEVEL WAVE
THAT IS DRIVING THE PRECIPITATION. TEMPS HAVE ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED
WITH LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION PRESENT ON CURRENT RADAR AS A DECAYING LOW-
TOPPED MCV HAS STALLED NEAR JEFFERSON COUNTY PA. DESPITE ENHANCED
RADAR REFLECTIVITIES ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE CIRCULATION...THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL REPORTS RECEIVED HAVE BEEN AROUND 1/3" PER HR.
EXAMINATION OF THE INDIVIDUAL RADAR SLICES REVEALS THAT A GOOD
PORTION OF THE ENHANCEMENT IS DUE TO BRIGHT BANDING...WITH
FREEZING LEVELS RIGHT AROUND 7KFT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SW TROF SWINGING SOUTH
THROUGH OHIO WITH AN ATTENDANT VORT MAX THROUGH SRN OHIO. THIS
GENERATED LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SRN SHORE OF LAKE
ERIE THAT HAVE SINCE DE-TATCHED FROM THE LAKE AND HAVE CONGEALED WITH
THE BACK EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CIRCULATION. THIS VORT WILL
EFFECTIVELY CUT-OFF THE UPPER LOW AND ALLOW IT TO DRIFT RIGHT
OVERTOP OF US. WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LLVL MOISTURE AND THE COLD
POOL ALOFT...FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN RAIN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF LAKE-ENHANCED AXIS OF RAIN SHOWERS.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA...ENHANCING NRLY
FLOW ALOFT WRAPPING MOISTURE BACK AROUND THE SYSTEM. THE LLVL FLOW
WILL REMAIN NWRLY ENABLING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT...THUS WILL
CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS IN THE SE RIDGES. ELSEWHERE...MULTIPLE
WEAK MID-LEVEL VORTS ARE PROGGED TO SWING AROUND THE PARENT
LOW...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. KEEPING CHC POPS IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH WEDS
MORNING. WITH TEMPS MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY...LARGE MODIFICATIONS WERE NOT NECESSARY.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NORTHWESTERLY AND NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL
SHEAR SLOWLY INCREASES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR UNSTABLE UPSLOPE
FLOW SHOWERS TO SLOWLY WIND DOWN DURING THE PERIOD. SOME CLEARING
SHOULD START TO WORK ITS WAY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA AS
LAYER MOISTURE SLOWLY PEELS OFF TO THE EAST AS WELL.

YESTERDAY`S GFS...AND NOW TODAY`S ECMWF AND GFS BOTH INDICATE A
SOMEWHAT ANOMALOUS LOOKING SHORT WAVE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD DOWN
THE FRONT FLANK OF THE UPPER RIDGE THAT BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA BY
LATE IN THE WEEK. DEEP MOISTURE DOES NO SEEM PARTICULARLY EVIDENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THE DEPTH OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT PARTICULARLY
WELL AGREED UPON. GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE GFS HAS BEEN A BIT MORE
CONSISTENT WITH THE FEATURE IN ITS RUNS...TIMING AND PLACEMENT
CLOSER TO THE GFS WAS FAVORED...WHICH WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE WEEK...AND A VERY VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A FLEETING SPRINKLE. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
THEIR SLOW TREND TO CREEP BACK TOWARD NORMAL. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE REGION SOCKED IN WITH
CLOUDS THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SLOWLY ROTATES ACROSS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MANY OF THESE WILL
CONCENTRATE ALONG THE RIDGES. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
AREAWIDE INTO MIDMORNING ON WEDNESDAY. CIGS COULD IMPROVE TO VFR
BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN PA. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.

.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DUE TO THE LARGE AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...PERIODIC
RSTRNS COULD LAST THROUGH THURS IN SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 220117
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
917 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE
WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND ARRIVING IN NOVA SCOTIA
ON FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO OUR
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING FOR SUNDAY AND FOR THE
EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE MID- LEVEL TROUGHING TO OUR WEST DIVES FURTHER SOUTHWARD TO
OUR IMMEDIATE WEST LATE TONIGHT AS MORE AND MORE ENERGY IS
TRANSFERRED TO A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE OF DELMARVA.

HAVE ADJUSTED POPS LOWER ACRS THE BOARD FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
BASED ON LATEST RADAR. LEFT HIGHEST CHCS ACRS THE ERN SHORE OF MD.
STILL EXPECT A GRADUAL UPWARD TREND IN POPS, BUT UPPER LOWS ARE
NOTORIOUSLY TRICKY, SO FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS ARE ANTICIPATED.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY SPEAKING THE POOR MANS 500MB ENSEMBLE SHOWS GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS. ALL SHOW THE TROUGHING
TO OUR WEST CLOSING OFF TONIGHT AS MULTIPLE IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH
ITS BASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS IT CONTINUES TO CLOSE
OFF A BETTER DEFINED SURFACE LOW TAKES SHAPE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
DELMARVA/SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTLINE. THE STRONGEST OF THE MID-
LEVEL IMPULSES TONIGHT DIVES INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AS IT AND
IT BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF BUT DEEPENS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE. AMPLE
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE COMBINED WITH GOOD CYCLONIC JET
DYNAMICS AND DIV-Q FIELD TO SEE CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS A BROAD
PORTION OF OUR EASTERN HALF WITH MODERATE RAINFALL EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE ALLOWED INTO THE UPPER-50S TO MAYBE THE
LOW-60S IN THE SOUTHERN PLACES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND
WITH SOME MIXING OCCURRING IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS GUSTS COULD TOP
OUT AROUND 25 WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW...RAW INDEED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA COAST
ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE FEATURE WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH AND
NORTHEASTWARD PASSING OVER THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON FRIDAY
MORNING.

WE CONTINUE TO ANTICIPATE RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE RAIN
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT IN MUCH OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHEASTERN DELAWARE. HOWEVER, MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE, CLOSER TO THE MID
LEVEL LOW.

A FAIR AMOUNT OF LINGERING WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER
OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A CLOUDY AND DAMP DAY
WITH A NORTHWEST WIND AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN. WE HAVE GONE WITH
THE LOW END OF THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE MAINLY IN THE 50S IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

GRADUAL DRYING IS EXPECTED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE
COURSE OF THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE MID LEVEL LOW CONTINUES
TO MOVE AWAY FROM OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO EASE
BACK TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS FOR LATE OCTOBER.

A SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO
PASS OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE FROM
THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT, SO WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
PRECIPITATION AT THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR. NWLY FLOW BECOMING NELY
OVERNIGHT WITH SHWRS MOVG IN. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE
ANTICIPATED LATE TONIGHT AND INTO ERLY WED AS LOW PRES MOVES NEARBY.
RAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND MAY
REDUCE VSBYS INTO THE IFR RANGE. WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST
AND INCREASE TOWARDS 10 KNOTS. LOW TO MDT CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY MVFR. RAIN WILL PREVAIL A MAJORITY OF THE DAY,
ESPECIALLY FROM PHL EASTWARD. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS...SLIGHT BACKING TOWARDS THE NORTH
LATE IN THE PERIOD. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN VFR AND
MVFR IN PERIODS OF RAIN.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST-
WEST FLOW WITH SHOWERS OVERSPREADING FROM THE WEST AND THEN
SOUTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY...WE UPGRADED TO GALES ACROSS THE LOWER BAY AND
SOUTHERN TWO ZONES STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE
JUST OFFSHORE WRAPS UP. SMALL CRAFT ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE
THURSDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
INTO THE MID-30S LIKELY SOUTHWARD AND LOW-30S NORTHWARD. SEAS
INCREASE TO AROUND 5 TO 6 FEET LATE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...A GALE WARNING IS IN PLACE FOR THE
WATERS OFF DELAWARE AND FOR THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR REMAINING WATERS. WE ARE
EXPECTING A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ431-454-455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KLWX 220056
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
856 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING.
NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE MOVED INTO THE REGION AS PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO RISE BEHIND THE LOW. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC TONIGHT. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS FEATURE...COOLER AIR
ALOFT AND VORTICITY ADVECTION HAS MADE FOR AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TODAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVED WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. ACTIVITY WAS CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN AND
SMALL HAIL. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LED TO INCREASED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AS WELL. AS OF 00Z...THE PRESSURE SURGE WAS AT THE WATERS AND
GUSTS UP TO 25KTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. WINDS BEHIND THE SURGE ARE EXPECTED
TO LESSEN TONIGHT BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE AS THE
SFC LOW MOVES TO THE EAST. NW WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND LIMIT THE FORMATION OF
FOG DEVELOPMENT.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER LOW
SPINS OVER THE REGION...MORE SHOWERS WILL ENTER THE REGION BUT THE
COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN EARLIER. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF A
QUARTER INCH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE UPSLOPE REGION AS AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL LEAD TO
CONSTANT LIFT.

LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S IN THE HIGHLANDS TO THE LOW
50S ALONG AND EAST OF I-95.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
REACHES THE GULF STREAM. WINDS STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 15-20 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRENGTHENING
LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WRAPAROUND RAINFALL
LIKELY AT TIMES OVER EASTERN MD AND PORTIONS OF VA. UPSLOPE RAIN
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL FAVOR LIQUID RAIN OVER MOST
OF THE HIGHLANDS...BUT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN GRANT...PENDLETON
AND HIGHLAND MAY SEE SNOW MIXED IN. LOW TEMPS IN THE 40S ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY THURSDAY AS SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE  SLOWLY SLIDES UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. DOWNSLOPING OF
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ELIMINATE POPS LOCALLY DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...WHERE UPSLOPE
RAIN IS POSSIBLE...AND THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA ALONG
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE
WEAKER FRIDAY. THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL SEE QUIET/DRY
WEATHER AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING KEEPS PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT TEMPS
THIS WEEKEND TO BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
MID-60S...AND TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK TO BE JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE TERMINALS TONIGHT AND NW WINDS
5-10KTS ARE EXPECTED. DCA/MTN WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTS UP TO 20KTS
OVERNIGHT. SHRA WILL MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT IMPACTING DCA/BWI/MTN.
SOME SHOWERS ARE HEAVY RESULTING IN REDUCED VSBYS. THEY WILL
LIKELY STAY ABOVE IFR CONDITIONS. AS THE RAIN MOVES AWY FROM THE
TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE IN. THE WIND FIELD ALOFT WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND ONLY ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

NW WINDS 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KTS ARE EXPECTED EARLY WED
MORNING. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. GUSTY NW WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT IAD/DCA/BWI/MTN BY
WED AFTERNOON.

THU...VFR. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25KT.

FRI...VFR. NW WINDS AROUND 1OKT.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF AVIATION HAZARDS OVER THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.


CLDY WED NGT BUT CIGS XPCTD TO BE VFR. BRZY NW WINDS XPCTD WED NGT
AND THU. VFR/NO PROBS FRI AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
PRESSURE SURGE MOVED ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING AND GUSTY NW
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT. A SCA IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE
WATERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR GALES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OFF THE NJ/DELMARVA SHORE. MODEL FORECASTS ARE
MARGINAL FOR GALES...SO FOR NOW OPTED TO EXTEND SCA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS LIKELY TO REACH 30KT IN SOME PARTS OF
CHES BAY AT LEAST.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES UP THE NORTHEAST COAST. WINDS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WATERS...THOUGH CURRENTLY THINK THEY
WILL STAY MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20 KNOT RANGE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     538>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ535>537.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KS
NEAR TERM...HAS/KS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...HAS/KS/CEB
MARINE...HAS/KS/CEB








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 212339
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
739 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
630PM UPDATE...POPS WERE MODIFIED WITH A COMBINATION OF LATEST
RADAR PICS AND INCOMING MODEL GUIDANCE. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT TOWARD THE SOUTH WITH SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND
50H LOW. TEMPS HAVE ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED WITH LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION PRESENT ON CURRENT RADAR AS A DECAYING LOW-
TOPPED MCV HAS STALLED NEAR JEFFERSON COUNTY PA. DESPITE ENHANCED
RADAR REFLECTIVITIES ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE CIRCULATION...THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL REPORTS RECEIVED HAVE BEEN AROUND 1/3" PER HR.
EXAMINATION OF THE INDIVIDUAL RADAR SLICES REVEALS THAT A GOOD
PORTION OF THE ENHANCEMENT IS DUE TO BRIGHT BANDING...WITH
FREEZING LEVELS RIGHT AROUND 7KFT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SW TROF SWINGING SOUTH
THROUGH OHIO WITH AN ATTENDANT VORT MAX THROUGH SRN OHIO. THIS
GENERATED LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SRN SHORE OF LAKE
ERIE THAT HAVE SINCE DE-TATCHED FROM THE LAKE AND HAVE CONGEALED WITH
THE BACK EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CIRCULATION. THIS VORT WILL
EFFECTIVELY CUT-OFF THE UPPER LOW AND ALLOW IT TO DRIFT RIGHT
OVERTOP OF US. WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LLVL MOISTURE AND THE COLD
POOL ALOFT...FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN RAIN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF LAKE-ENHANCED AXIS OF RAIN SHOWERS.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA...ENHANCING NRLY
FLOW ALOFT WRAPPING MOISTURE BACK AROUND THE SYSTEM. THE LLVL FLOW
WILL REMAIN NWRLY ENABLING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT...THUS WILL
CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS IN THE SE RIDGES. ELSEWHERE...MULTIPLE
WEAK MID-LEVEL VORTS ARE PROGGED TO SWING AROUND THE PARENT
LOW...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. KEEPING CHC POPS IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH WEDS
MORNING. WITH TEMPS MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY...LARGE MODIFICATIONS WERE NOT NECESSARY.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NORTHWESTERLY AND NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL
SHEAR SLOWLY INCREASES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR UNSTABLE UPSLOPE
FLOW SHOWERS TO SLOWLY WIND DOWN DURING THE PERIOD. SOME CLEARING
SHOULD START TO WORK ITS WAY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA AS
LAYER MOISTURE SLOWLY PEELS OFF TO THE EAST AS WELL.

YESTERDAY`S GFS...AND NOW TODAY`S ECMWF AND GFS BOTH INDICATE A
SOMEWHAT ANOMALOUS LOOKING SHORT WAVE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD DOWN
THE FRONT FLANK OF THE UPPER RIDGE THAT BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA BY
LATE IN THE WEEK. DEEP MOISTURE DOES NO SEEM PARTICULARLY EVIDENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THE DEPTH OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT PARTICULARLY
WELL AGREED UPON. GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE GFS HAS BEEN A BIT MORE
CONSISTENT WITH THE FEATURE IN ITS RUNS...TIMING AND PLACEMENT
CLOSER TO THE GFS WAS FAVORED...WHICH WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE WEEK...AND A VERY VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A FLEETING SPRINKLE. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
THEIR SLOW TREND TO CREEP BACK TOWARD NORMAL. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE REGION SOCKED IN WITH
CLOUDS THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SLOWLY ROTATES ACROSS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MANY OF THESE WILL
CONCENTRATE ALONG THE RIDGES. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
AREAWIDE INTO MIDMORNING ON WEDNESDAY. CIGS COULD IMPROVE TO VFR
BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN PA. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.

.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DUE TO THE LARGE AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...PERIODIC
RSTRNS COULD LAST THROUGH THURS IN SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 212225 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
625 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
630PM UPDATE...POPS WERE MODIFIED WITH A COMBINATION OF LATEST
RADAR PICS AND INCOMING MODEL GUIDANCE. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT TOWARD THE SOUTH WITH SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND
50H LOW. TEMPS HAVE ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED WITH LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION PRESENT ON CURRENT RADAR AS A DECAYING LOW-
TOPPED MCV HAS STALLED NEAR JEFFERSON COUNTY PA. DESPITE ENHANCED
RADAR REFLECTIVITIES ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE CIRCULATION...THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL REPORTS RECEIVED HAVE BEEN AROUND 1/3" PER HR.
EXAMINATION OF THE INDIVIDUAL RADAR SLICES REVEALS THAT A GOOD
PORTION OF THE ENHANCEMENT IS DUE TO BRIGHT BANDING...WITH
FREEZING LEVELS RIGHT AROUND 7KFT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SW TROF SWINGING SOUTH
THROUGH OHIO WITH AN ATTENDANT VORT MAX THROUGH SRN OHIO. THIS
GENERATED LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SRN SHORE OF LAKE
ERIE THAT HAVE SINCE DE-TATCHED FROM THE LAKE AND HAVE CONGEALED WITH
THE BACK EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CIRCULATION. THIS VORT WILL
EFFECTIVELY CUT-OFF THE UPPER LOW AND ALLOW IT TO DRIFT RIGHT
OVERTOP OF US. WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LLVL MOISTURE AND THE COLD
POOL ALOFT...FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN RAIN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF LAKE-ENHANCED AXIS OF RAIN SHOWERS.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA...ENHANCING NRLY
FLOW ALOFT WRAPPING MOISTURE BACK AROUND THE SYSTEM. THE LLVL FLOW
WILL REMAIN NWRLY ENABLING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT...THUS WILL
CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS IN THE SE RIDGES. ELSEWHERE...MULTIPLE
WEAK MID-LEVEL VORTS ARE PROGGED TO SWING AROUND THE PARENT
LOW...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. KEEPING CHC POPS IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH WEDS
MORNING. WITH TEMPS MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY...LARGE MODIFICATIONS WERE NOT NECESSARY.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NORTHWESTERLY AND NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL
SHEAR SLOWLY INCREASES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR UNSTABLE UPSLOPE
FLOW SHOWERS TO SLOWLY WIND DOWN DURING THE PERIOD. SOME CLEARING
SHOULD START TO WORK ITS WAY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA AS
LAYER MOISTURE SLOWLY PEELS OFF TO THE EAST AS WELL.

YESTERDAY`S GFS...AND NOW TODAY`S ECMWF AND GFS BOTH INDICATE A
SOMEWHAT ANOMALOUS LOOKING SHORT WAVE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD DOWN
THE FRONT FLANK OF THE UPPER RIDGE THAT BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA BY
LATE IN THE WEEK. DEEP MOISTURE DOES NO SEEM PARTICULARLY EVIDENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THE DEPTH OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT PARTICULARLY
WELL AGREED UPON. GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE GFS HAS BEEN A BIT MORE
CONSISTENT WITH THE FEATURE IN ITS RUNS...TIMING AND PLACEMENT
CLOSER TO THE GFS WAS FAVORED...WHICH WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE WEEK...AND A VERY VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A FLEETING SPRINKLE. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
THEIR SLOW TREND TO CREEP BACK TOWARD NORMAL. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE AND VERY SLOW MOVING SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND ACROSS THE AREA OVER THROUGH WEDS. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FOUND PRIMARILY IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS WITH
AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD DECK AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS GENERATED...THUS MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE THROUGH MID-MORNING WEDS. AS OF
15Z MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
DIP AGAIN INTO IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR TONIGHT WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF
LOW CIGS.
TAX

.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DUE TO THE LARGE AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...PERIODIC
RSTRNS COULD LAST THROUGH THURS IN SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 212219
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
619 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE
WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND ARRIVING IN NOVA SCOTIA
ON FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO OUR
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING FOR SUNDAY AND FOR THE
EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WHAT WAS ONCE A BETTER DEFINED MCV OUT IN WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
LOOKS TO BE LOSING IT LUSTER BUT IT SHOULD NOT COMPLETELY WASH OUT
AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO OUR CWA. THE CURRENT AREA OF ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND BEGIN TO
WANE AS IT LOSES BETTER SUPPORT FROM THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR
WEST. THE MID- LEVEL TROUGHING TO OUR WEST DIVES FURTHER SOUTHWARD
TO OUR IMMEDIATE WEST LATE TONIGHT AS MORE AND MORE ENERGY IS
TRANSFERRED TO A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE OF DELMARVA.

WE CATERED THE POPS WITH LIKELIES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN FRINGE AND
CHANCE ELSEWHERE, EARLY AND THEN BRING IN LIKELY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES LATER TONIGHT WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE CLOSING MID-
LEVEL LOW AND OVERHEAD ENERGY TRANSFER TO THE COAST.

THE LATEST RADAR SHOWED SOME ORGANIZED SHOWERS/TSRA IN NRN NJ AND
SOME LESS ORGANIZED STUFF ALG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF OUR AREA.
MOVEMENT IS SLOW. HAVE TRIED TO ADJUST POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR ITS
LOCATION AND TRENDS, BUT THIS WAS DIFFICULT, NONETHELESS. ALSO,
HAD TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER. WHILE MOST OF THE WRN
SECTIONS OF THE AREA IS CLOUDY ERN SECTIONS WERE MAINLY CLEAR
ATTM.

GRIDDED TEMPS WERE A BIT TOO WARM IN THE REAL NEAR TERM AND NEEDED
TO DROP THEM A FEW DEGREES AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY SPEAKING THE POOR MANS 500MB ENSEMBLE SHOWS GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS. ALL SHOW THE TROUGHING
TO OUR WEST CLOSING OFF TONIGHT AS MULTIPLE IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH
ITS BASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS IT CONTINUES TO CLOSE
OFF A BETTER DEFINED SURFACE LOW TAKES SHAPE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
DELMARVA/SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTLINE. THE STRONGEST OF THE MID-
LEVEL IMPULSES TONIGHT DIVES INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AS IT AND
IT BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF BUT DEEPENS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE. AMPLE
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE COMBINED WITH GOOD CYCLONIC JET
DYNAMICS AND DIV-Q FIELD TO SEE CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS A BROAD
PORTION OF OUR EASTERN HALF WITH MODERATE RAINFALL EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE ALLOWED INTO THE UPPER-50S TO MAYBE THE
LOW-60S IN THE SOUTHERN PLACES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND
WITH SOME MIXING OCCURRING IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS GUSTS COULD TOP
OUT AROUND 25 WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW...RAW INDEED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA COAST
ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE FEATURE WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH AND
NORTHEASTWARD PASSING OVER THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON FRIDAY
MORNING.

WE CONTINUE TO ANTICIPATE RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE RAIN
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT IN MUCH OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHEASTERN DELAWARE. HOWEVER, MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE, CLOSER TO THE MID
LEVEL LOW.

A FAIR AMOUNT OF LINGERING WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER
OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A CLOUDY AND DAMP DAY
WITH A NORTHWEST WIND AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN. WE HAVE GONE WITH
THE LOW END OF THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE MAINLY IN THE 50S IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

GRADUAL DRYING IS EXPECTED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE
COURSE OF THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE MID LEVEL LOW CONTINUES
TO MOVE AWAY FROM OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO EASE
BACK TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS FOR LATE OCTOBER.

A SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO
PASS OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE FROM
THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT, SO WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
PRECIPITATION AT THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR TO MVFR/IFR. LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED WITH
SHOWERS OVERSPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST BEFORE SHUTTING OFF LATE
THIS EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING
BUT NOT CONFIDENT ON PLACEMENT SO LEFT OUT OF TAFS...BETTER CHANCE
FURTHER EAST. START TO SEE MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NEARBY. RAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES
AND MAY REDUCE VSBYS INTO THE IFR RANGE. WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TOWARDS 10 KNOTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY MVFR. RAIN WILL PREVAIL A MAJORITY OF THE DAY,
ESPECIALLY FROM PHL EASTWARD. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS...SLIGHT BACKING TOWARDS THE NORTH
LATE IN THE PERIOD. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN VFR AND
MVFR IN PERIODS OF RAIN.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST-
WEST FLOW WITH SHOWERS OVERSPREADING FROM THE WEST AND THEN
SOUTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY...WE UPGRADED TO GALES ACROSS THE LOWER BAY AND
SOUTHERN TWO ZONES STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE
JUST OFFSHORE WRAPS UP. SMALL CRAFT ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE
THURSDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
INTO THE MID-30S LIKELY SOUTHWARD AND LOW-30S NORTHWARD. SEAS
INCREASE TO AROUND 5 TO 6 FEET LATE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...A GALE WARNING IS IN PLACE FOR THE
WATERS OFF DELAWARE AND FOR THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR REMAINING WATERS. WE ARE
EXPECTING A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ431-454-455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER








000
FXUS61 KPHI 212219
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
619 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE
WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND ARRIVING IN NOVA SCOTIA
ON FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO OUR
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING FOR SUNDAY AND FOR THE
EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WHAT WAS ONCE A BETTER DEFINED MCV OUT IN WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
LOOKS TO BE LOSING IT LUSTER BUT IT SHOULD NOT COMPLETELY WASH OUT
AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO OUR CWA. THE CURRENT AREA OF ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND BEGIN TO
WANE AS IT LOSES BETTER SUPPORT FROM THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR
WEST. THE MID- LEVEL TROUGHING TO OUR WEST DIVES FURTHER SOUTHWARD
TO OUR IMMEDIATE WEST LATE TONIGHT AS MORE AND MORE ENERGY IS
TRANSFERRED TO A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE OF DELMARVA.

WE CATERED THE POPS WITH LIKELIES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN FRINGE AND
CHANCE ELSEWHERE, EARLY AND THEN BRING IN LIKELY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES LATER TONIGHT WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE CLOSING MID-
LEVEL LOW AND OVERHEAD ENERGY TRANSFER TO THE COAST.

THE LATEST RADAR SHOWED SOME ORGANIZED SHOWERS/TSRA IN NRN NJ AND
SOME LESS ORGANIZED STUFF ALG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF OUR AREA.
MOVEMENT IS SLOW. HAVE TRIED TO ADJUST POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR ITS
LOCATION AND TRENDS, BUT THIS WAS DIFFICULT, NONETHELESS. ALSO,
HAD TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER. WHILE MOST OF THE WRN
SECTIONS OF THE AREA IS CLOUDY ERN SECTIONS WERE MAINLY CLEAR
ATTM.

GRIDDED TEMPS WERE A BIT TOO WARM IN THE REAL NEAR TERM AND NEEDED
TO DROP THEM A FEW DEGREES AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY SPEAKING THE POOR MANS 500MB ENSEMBLE SHOWS GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS. ALL SHOW THE TROUGHING
TO OUR WEST CLOSING OFF TONIGHT AS MULTIPLE IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH
ITS BASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS IT CONTINUES TO CLOSE
OFF A BETTER DEFINED SURFACE LOW TAKES SHAPE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
DELMARVA/SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTLINE. THE STRONGEST OF THE MID-
LEVEL IMPULSES TONIGHT DIVES INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AS IT AND
IT BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF BUT DEEPENS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE. AMPLE
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE COMBINED WITH GOOD CYCLONIC JET
DYNAMICS AND DIV-Q FIELD TO SEE CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS A BROAD
PORTION OF OUR EASTERN HALF WITH MODERATE RAINFALL EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE ALLOWED INTO THE UPPER-50S TO MAYBE THE
LOW-60S IN THE SOUTHERN PLACES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND
WITH SOME MIXING OCCURRING IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS GUSTS COULD TOP
OUT AROUND 25 WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW...RAW INDEED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA COAST
ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE FEATURE WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH AND
NORTHEASTWARD PASSING OVER THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON FRIDAY
MORNING.

WE CONTINUE TO ANTICIPATE RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE RAIN
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT IN MUCH OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHEASTERN DELAWARE. HOWEVER, MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE, CLOSER TO THE MID
LEVEL LOW.

A FAIR AMOUNT OF LINGERING WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER
OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A CLOUDY AND DAMP DAY
WITH A NORTHWEST WIND AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN. WE HAVE GONE WITH
THE LOW END OF THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE MAINLY IN THE 50S IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

GRADUAL DRYING IS EXPECTED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE
COURSE OF THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE MID LEVEL LOW CONTINUES
TO MOVE AWAY FROM OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO EASE
BACK TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS FOR LATE OCTOBER.

A SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO
PASS OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE FROM
THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT, SO WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
PRECIPITATION AT THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR TO MVFR/IFR. LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED WITH
SHOWERS OVERSPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST BEFORE SHUTTING OFF LATE
THIS EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING
BUT NOT CONFIDENT ON PLACEMENT SO LEFT OUT OF TAFS...BETTER CHANCE
FURTHER EAST. START TO SEE MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NEARBY. RAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES
AND MAY REDUCE VSBYS INTO THE IFR RANGE. WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TOWARDS 10 KNOTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY MVFR. RAIN WILL PREVAIL A MAJORITY OF THE DAY,
ESPECIALLY FROM PHL EASTWARD. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS...SLIGHT BACKING TOWARDS THE NORTH
LATE IN THE PERIOD. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN VFR AND
MVFR IN PERIODS OF RAIN.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST-
WEST FLOW WITH SHOWERS OVERSPREADING FROM THE WEST AND THEN
SOUTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY...WE UPGRADED TO GALES ACROSS THE LOWER BAY AND
SOUTHERN TWO ZONES STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE
JUST OFFSHORE WRAPS UP. SMALL CRAFT ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE
THURSDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
INTO THE MID-30S LIKELY SOUTHWARD AND LOW-30S NORTHWARD. SEAS
INCREASE TO AROUND 5 TO 6 FEET LATE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...A GALE WARNING IS IN PLACE FOR THE
WATERS OFF DELAWARE AND FOR THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR REMAINING WATERS. WE ARE
EXPECTING A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ431-454-455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER








000
FXUS61 KLWX 212216
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
616 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE...PRESSURE SURGE MOVING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND TOWARDS
THE WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SEE MARINE SECTION.

DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. BROAD CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL ALSO DROP INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION BY THIS EVENING...AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS
IT MOVES INTO THE TIDEWATER REGION OVERNIGHT.

COMBINATION OF COOL AIR ALOFT...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
MARGINAL SURFACE INSTABILITY IS PRODUCING SCATTERED RAIN AND
SHOWERS OVER THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY...POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND
UPSTREAM ACROSS WV/PA AND OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH AROUND
500 J/KG OF SBCAPE...WILL HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME
ISOLATED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE
60S...WITH A FEW 70S NOTED IN THE VA PIEDMONT. COOLER TEMPS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WHERE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN IS KEEPING TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 50S.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS MOVE
JUST TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. BASIN WIDE
RAIN AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS
OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME LOCAL AREAS MAY SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH
LOCALIZED PERIODS OF MORE MODERATE RAINFALL. STEADY BREEZE AROUND
5-10KT FROM THE NW CONTINUES AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE
BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW INCREASES. LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM
THE LOW 40S IN THE HIGHLANDS TO THE LOW 50S ALONG AND EAST OF
I-95.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
REACHES THE GULF STREAM. WINDS STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 15-20 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRENGTHENING
LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WRAPAROUND RAINFALL
LIKELY AT TIMES OVER EASTERN MD AND PORTIONS OF VA. UPSLOPE RAIN
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL FAVOR LIQUID RAIN OVER MOST
OF THE HIGHLANDS...BUT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN GRANT...PENDLETON
AND HIGHLAND MAY SEE SNOW MIXED IN. LOW TEMPS IN THE 40S ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY THURSDAY AS SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE  SLOWLY SLIDES UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. DOWNSLOPING OF
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ELIMINATE POPS LOCALLY DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...WHERE UPSLOPE
RAIN IS POSSIBLE...AND THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA ALONG
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE
WEAKER FRIDAY. THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL SEE QUIET/DRY
WEATHER AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING KEEPS PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT TEMPS
THIS WEEKEND TO BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
MID-60S...AND TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK TO BE JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN ARE DEVELOPING TO THE WEST...AND WILL MOVE
INTO THE WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE TERMINALS BY THIS EVENING. PERIODS
OF MVFR VSBYS LIKELY WITH RAIN. CIGS LOWER TO MVFR TONIGHT.
PERIODS OF IFR PSBL AS WELL AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS THIS
AFTN AND EVENING...BECG NW AND INCREASING TO AROUND 10KT
OVERNIGHT. LOWER CIGS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WEDNESDAY...AND PERIODIC
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED...UP TO 20-25KT
BY THE AFTERNOON.

THU...VFR. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25KT.

FRI...VFR. NW WINDS AROUND 1OKT.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF AVIATION HAZARDS OVER THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.


CLDY WED NGT BUT CIGS XPCTD TO BE VFR. BRZY NW WINDS XPCTD WED NGT
AND THU. VFR/NO PROBS FRI AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...PRESSURE SURGE HEADING TOWARDS THE WATERS AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE I-95 CORRIDOR. NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE RESULTED
IN GUSTS AROUND 20KTS. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT. A SCA IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS BECOME
N-NW AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT...WITH SCA GUSTS LIKELY BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR GALES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OFF THE NJ/DELMARVA SHORE. MODEL
FORECASTS ARE MARGINAL FOR GALES...SO FOR NOW OPTED TO EXTEND SCA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS LIKELY TO REACH 30KT IN SOME
PARTS OF CHES BAY AT LEAST.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES UP THE NORTHEAST COAST. WINDS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WATERS...THOUGH CURRENTLY THINK THEY
WILL STAY MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20 KNOT RANGE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>534-538>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ535>537.

&&

$$
UPDATE...HAS
SYNOPSIS...KS
NEAR TERM...KS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...KS/CEB
MARINE...KS/CEB








000
FXUS61 KLWX 212216
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
616 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE...PRESSURE SURGE MOVING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND TOWARDS
THE WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SEE MARINE SECTION.

DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. BROAD CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL ALSO DROP INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION BY THIS EVENING...AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS
IT MOVES INTO THE TIDEWATER REGION OVERNIGHT.

COMBINATION OF COOL AIR ALOFT...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
MARGINAL SURFACE INSTABILITY IS PRODUCING SCATTERED RAIN AND
SHOWERS OVER THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY...POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND
UPSTREAM ACROSS WV/PA AND OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH AROUND
500 J/KG OF SBCAPE...WILL HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME
ISOLATED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE
60S...WITH A FEW 70S NOTED IN THE VA PIEDMONT. COOLER TEMPS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WHERE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN IS KEEPING TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 50S.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS MOVE
JUST TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. BASIN WIDE
RAIN AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS
OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME LOCAL AREAS MAY SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH
LOCALIZED PERIODS OF MORE MODERATE RAINFALL. STEADY BREEZE AROUND
5-10KT FROM THE NW CONTINUES AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE
BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW INCREASES. LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM
THE LOW 40S IN THE HIGHLANDS TO THE LOW 50S ALONG AND EAST OF
I-95.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
REACHES THE GULF STREAM. WINDS STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 15-20 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRENGTHENING
LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WRAPAROUND RAINFALL
LIKELY AT TIMES OVER EASTERN MD AND PORTIONS OF VA. UPSLOPE RAIN
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL FAVOR LIQUID RAIN OVER MOST
OF THE HIGHLANDS...BUT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN GRANT...PENDLETON
AND HIGHLAND MAY SEE SNOW MIXED IN. LOW TEMPS IN THE 40S ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY THURSDAY AS SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE  SLOWLY SLIDES UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. DOWNSLOPING OF
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ELIMINATE POPS LOCALLY DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...WHERE UPSLOPE
RAIN IS POSSIBLE...AND THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA ALONG
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE
WEAKER FRIDAY. THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL SEE QUIET/DRY
WEATHER AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING KEEPS PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT TEMPS
THIS WEEKEND TO BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
MID-60S...AND TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK TO BE JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN ARE DEVELOPING TO THE WEST...AND WILL MOVE
INTO THE WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE TERMINALS BY THIS EVENING. PERIODS
OF MVFR VSBYS LIKELY WITH RAIN. CIGS LOWER TO MVFR TONIGHT.
PERIODS OF IFR PSBL AS WELL AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS THIS
AFTN AND EVENING...BECG NW AND INCREASING TO AROUND 10KT
OVERNIGHT. LOWER CIGS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WEDNESDAY...AND PERIODIC
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED...UP TO 20-25KT
BY THE AFTERNOON.

THU...VFR. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25KT.

FRI...VFR. NW WINDS AROUND 1OKT.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF AVIATION HAZARDS OVER THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.


CLDY WED NGT BUT CIGS XPCTD TO BE VFR. BRZY NW WINDS XPCTD WED NGT
AND THU. VFR/NO PROBS FRI AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...PRESSURE SURGE HEADING TOWARDS THE WATERS AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE I-95 CORRIDOR. NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE RESULTED
IN GUSTS AROUND 20KTS. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT. A SCA IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS BECOME
N-NW AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT...WITH SCA GUSTS LIKELY BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR GALES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OFF THE NJ/DELMARVA SHORE. MODEL
FORECASTS ARE MARGINAL FOR GALES...SO FOR NOW OPTED TO EXTEND SCA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS LIKELY TO REACH 30KT IN SOME
PARTS OF CHES BAY AT LEAST.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES UP THE NORTHEAST COAST. WINDS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WATERS...THOUGH CURRENTLY THINK THEY
WILL STAY MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20 KNOT RANGE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>534-538>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ535>537.

&&

$$
UPDATE...HAS
SYNOPSIS...KS
NEAR TERM...KS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...KS/CEB
MARINE...KS/CEB








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 212029
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
429 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING...THEN PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY WHILE
SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY...
FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER SE
PA/SOUTHERN NJ WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW FROM THIS LOW INTO
SW VA. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING...CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. A STRONG SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY SEEN ON WV IMAGERY OVER THE OH VALLEY IS PROGGED TO
DIVE SE AROUND THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER LOW...REACHING
VA/NC OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL IN TURN ALLOW A CLOSED LOW TO DEVELOP
OVER THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. AS THE SHORTWAVE/UPPER TROUGH
APPROACH LATE TODAY...EXPECT SHOWERS TO INITIALLY DEVELOP OVER NW
ZONES BEFORE SPREADING SOUTH/EAST OVERNIGHT. WILL CARRY 25-40%
POPS N-NW OF KRIC THROUGH 00Z. WITH THE LOW CUTTING OFF OVER US
TONIGHT...THE BEST FORCING FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS OR
HIGH-END CHANCE POPS (50-70%) ACROSS THE NORTHERN NECK/MIDDLE
PENINSULA ONTO THE EASTERN SHORE OVERNIGHT...DECREASING TO ~20
ACROSS SW ZONES (WHERE DRY CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL). CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ELEVATED TSTM OR TWO (GIVEN STEEP H5 TO H7
LAPSE RATES OF 6.5 TO 7C)...BUT WILL PRECLUDE FROM FORECAST ATTM
GIVEN FAIRLY STABLE LOW LEVELS. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 40S...TO
LOW/MID 50S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE WED. AFTER A BRIEF
INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE OVERNIGHT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS BECOME
FAIRLY DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS AS THE TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION
SWING FARTHER OFFSHORE...HOWEVER A FAIRLY SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT
PROGGED ALONG THE COAST. THE ERN SHORE IN PARTICULAR APPEARS TO BE
SET FOR A CLOUDY/COOL DAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. WILL THEREFORE KEEP
CHC POPS (25-50%) LIMITED TO FAR EASTERN VA...WITH LIKELY 60-70%
POPS ON THE EASTERN SHORE. COULD END UP BEING DRY OVER FAR W/SW
ZONES. QPF AMOUNTS TONIGHT/WED WILL AVG 0.25-0.75" ON THE ERN
SHORE...GENLY ONLY AROUND .10" OR LESS ELSEWHERE. FAVOR COOLER END
OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WED...MID 60S SW TO AROUND 60/LOWER 60S NE.
OTHER FEATURE TO NOTE WILL BE THE INCREASING NW WINDS BY AFTN AS
THE SFC LOW INTENSIFIES FAIRLY RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST. GUSTS TO
25-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATER AFTN/EVENING (ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST).

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE WED NIGHT INTO THU...LOCATING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER CHANCES
BY THEN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SHORE (20%). DECREASING
CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. COOL AGAIN THU WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 60-65.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT IN BETWEEN SUB 1000 MB SFC LOW
OFF LONG ISLAND AND 1020 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY. EXPECT
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACRS THE ERN
SHORE...15-25 MPH ELSEWHERE.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR SUNSHINE...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND MILDER
TEMPS. HIGH FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS WELL TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY
MIDWEEK. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY (PERHAPS WARMER TUESDAY). LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. BEHIND THE
FRONT...STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL HELP A COOLER AIRMASS DIVE
INTO THE AREA. DRIZZLE ALONG WITH RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND LAST THROUGH NOON ON WED. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NW AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH WED
AFTN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BEHIND THE STRENGTHENING
SURFACE LOW TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW.
WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20KT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA WED EVENING AS THE SURFACE HIGH
NUDGES FARTHER EAST. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE FA THU
AND FRI WITH STRONGER NW WINDS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...WITH
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFYING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE SCA
CONDITIONS...BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND
CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST WIND IS
GENERALLY 20-25KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT FOR MOST OF THE MARINE
AREA. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR LOW-END GALE CONDITIONS LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING PRIMARILY SUPPORTED BY
THE 21/12Z NAM. AT THIS TIME THE CURRENT SCA WAS MAINTAINED GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR ONLY MARGINAL GALE CONDITIONS...WITH AN ONSET
GENERALLY AT OR BEYOND 24HR FROM 4PM TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OCEAN. WITH THE
FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT
5-7 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT AND
SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ630>638-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...AJZ





000
FXUS61 KPHI 212002
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
402 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE WATERS OFF CAPE
COD ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND ARRIVING IN NOVA SCOTIA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWING FOR SUNDAY AND FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR IS STARTING TO SHOW MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING
INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES AT THIS TIME. WHAT WAS ONCE A BETTER
DEFINED MCV OUT IN WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA LOOKS TO BE LOSING IT
LUSTER BUT IT SHOULD NOT COMPLETELY WASH OUT AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO
OUR CWA. THE CURRENT AREA OF ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND BEGIN TO WANE AS IT LOSES
BETTER SUPPORT FROM THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST. THE MID-
LEVEL TROUGHING TO OUR WEST DIVES FURTHER SOUTHWARD TO OUR
IMMEDIATE WEST LATE TONIGHT AS MORE AND MORE ENERGY IS TRANSFERRED
TO A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE OF DELMARVA.

WE CATERED THE POPS WITH LIKELIES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN FRINGE AND
CHANCE ELSEWHERE, EARLY AND THEN BRING IN LIKELY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES LATER TONIGHT WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE CLOSING MID-
LEVEL LOW AND OVERHEAD ENERGY TRANSFER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY SPEAKING THE POOR MANS 500MB ENSEMBLE SHOWS GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS. ALL SHOW THE TROUGHING
TO OUR WEST CLOSING OFF TONIGHT AS MULTIPLE IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH
ITS BASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS IT CONTINUES TO CLOSE
OFF A BETTER DEFINED SURFACE LOW TAKES SHAPE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
DELMARVA/SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTLINE. THE STRONGEST OF THE MID-
LEVEL IMPULSES TONIGHT DIVES INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AS IT AND
IT BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF BUT DEEPENS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE. AMPLE
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE COMBINED WITH GOOD CYCLONIC JET
DYNAMICS AND DIV-Q FIELD TO SEE CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS A BROAD
PORTION OF OUR EASTERN HALF WITH MODERATE RAINFALL EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE ALLOWED INTO THE UPPER-50S TO MAYBE THE
LOW-60S IN THE SOUTHERN PLACES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND
WITH SOME MIXING OCCURRING IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS GUSTS COULD TOP
OUT AROUND 25 WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW...RAW INDEED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA COAST
ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE FEATURE WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH AND
NORTHEASTWARD PASSING OVER THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON FRIDAY
MORNING.

WE CONTINUE TO ANTICIPATE RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE RAIN
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT IN MUCH OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHEASTERN DELAWARE. HOWEVER, MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE, CLOSER TO THE MID
LEVEL LOW.

A FAIR AMOUNT OF LINGERING WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER
OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A CLOUDY AND DAMP DAY
WITH A NORTHWEST WIND AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN. WE HAVE GONE WITH
THE LOW END OF THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE MAINLY IN THE 50S IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

GRADUAL DRYING IS EXPECTED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE
COURSE OF THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE MID LEVEL LOW CONTINUES
TO MOVE AWAY FROM OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO EASE
BACK TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS FOR LATE OCTOBER.

A SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO
PASS OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE FROM
THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT, SO WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
PRECIPITATION AT THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON - TONIGHT...VFR TO MVFR/IFR. LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW
EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS OVERSPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST BEFORE
SHUTTING OFF LATE THIS EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE THROUGH
LATE THIS EVENING BUT NOT CONFIDENT ON PLACEMENT SO LEFT OUT OF
TAFS...BETTER CHANCE FURTHER EAST. START TO SEE MVFR/IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEARBY. RAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND MAY REDUCE VSBYS INTO THE IFR RANGE.
WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TOWARDS 10 KNOTS.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY MVFR. RAIN WILL PREVAIL A MAJORITY OF THE DAY,
ESPECIALLY FROM PHL EASTWARD. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS...SLIGHT BACKING TOWARDS THE NORTH
LATE IN THE PERIOD. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN VFR AND
MVFR IN PERIODS OF RAIN.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST-
WEST FLOW WITH SHOWERS OVERSPREADING FROM THE WEST AND THEN
SOUTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY...WE UPGRADED TO GALES ACROSS THE LOWER BAY AND
SOUTHERN TWO ZONES STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE
JUST OFFSHORE WRAPS UP. SMALL CRAFT ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE
THURSDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
INTO THE MID-30S LIKELY SOUTHWARD AND LOW-30S NORTHWARD. SEAS
INCREASE TO AROUND 5 TO 6 FEET LATE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...A GALE WARNING IS IN PLACE FOR THE
WATERS OFF DELAWARE AND FOR THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR REMAINING WATERS. WE ARE
EXPECTING A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ431-454-455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211929
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
329 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION PRESENT ON CURRENT RADAR AS A DECAYING LOW-
TOPPED MCV HAS STALLED NEAR JEFFERSON COUNTY PA. DESPITE ENHANCED
RADAR REFLECTIVITIES ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE CIRCULATION...THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL REPORTS RECEIVED HAVE BEEN AROUND 1/3" PER HR.
EXAMINATION OF THE INDIVIDUAL RADAR SLICES REVEALS THAT A GOOD
PORTION OF THE ENHANCEMENT IS DUE TO BRIGHT BANDING...WITH
FREEZING LEVELS RIGHT AROUND 7KFT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SW TROF SWINGING SOUTH
THROUGH OHIO WITH AN ATTENDANT VORT MAX THROUGH SRN OHIO. THIS
GENERATED LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SRN SHORE OF LAKE
ERIE THAT HAVE SINCE DE-TATCHED FROM THE LAKE AND HAVE CONGEALED WITH
THE BACK EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CIRCULATION. THIS VORT WILL
EFFECTIVELY CUT-OFF THE UPPER LOW AND ALLOW IT TO DRIFT RIGHT
OVERTOP OF US. WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LLVL MOISTURE AND THE COLD
POOL ALOFT...FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN RAIN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF LAKE-ENHANCED AXIS OF RAIN SHOWERS.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA...ENHANCING NRLY
FLOW ALOFT WRAPPING MOISTURE BACK AROUND THE SYSTEM. THE LLVL FLOW
WILL REMAIN NWRLY ENABLING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT...THUS WILL
CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS IN THE SE RIDGES. ELSEWHERE...MULTIPLE
WEAK MID-LEVEL VORTS ARE PROGGED TO SWING AROUND THE PARENT
LOW...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. KEEPING CHC POPS IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH WEDS
MORNING. WITH TEMPS MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY...LARGE MODIFICATIONS WERE NOT NECESSARY.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NORTHWESTERLY AND NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL
SHEAR SLOWLY INCREASES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR UNSTABLE UPSLOPE
FLOW SHOWERS TO SLOWLY WIND DOWN DURING THE PERIOD. SOME CLEARING
SHOULD START TO WORK ITS WAY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA AS
LAYER MOISTURE SLOWLY PEELS OFF TO THE EAST AS WELL.

YESTERDAY`S GFS...AND NOW TODAY`S ECMWF AND GFS BOTH INDICATE A
SOMEWHAT ANOMALOUS LOOKING SHORT WAVE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD DOWN
THE FRONT FLANK OF THE UPPER RIDGE THAT BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA BY
LATE IN THE WEEK. DEEP MOISTURE DOES NO SEEM PARTICULARLY EVIDENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THE DEPTH OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT PARTICULARLY
WELL AGREED UPON. GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE GFS HAS BEEN A BIT MORE
CONSISTENT WITH THE FEATURE IN ITS RUNS...TIMING AND PLACEMENT
CLOSER TO THE GFS WAS FAVORED...WHICH WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE WEEK...AND A VERY VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A FLEETING SPRINKLE. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
THEIR SLOW TREND TO CREEP BACK TOWARD NORMAL. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE AND VERY SLOW MOVING SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND ACROSS THE AREA OVER THROUGH WEDS. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FOUND PRIMARILY IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS WITH
AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD DECK AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS GENERATED...THUS MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE THROUGH MID-MORNING WEDS. AS OF
15Z MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
DIP AGAIN INTO IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR TONIGHT WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF
LOW CIGS.
TAX

.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DUE TO THE LARGE AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...PERIODIC
RSTRNS COULD LAST THROUGH THURS IN SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211921
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
321 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING...THEN PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY WHILE
SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY...
FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER SE
PA/SOUTHERN NJ WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW FROM THIS LOW INTO
SW VA. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING...CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. A STRONG SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY SEEN ON WV IMAGERY OVER THE OH VALLEY IS PROGGED TO
DIVE SE AROUND THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER LOW...REACHING
VA/NC OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL IN TURN ALLOW A CLOSED LOW TO DEVELOP
OVER THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. AS THE SHORTWAVE/UPPER TROUGH
APPROACH LATE TODAY...EXPECT SHOWERS TO INITIALLY DEVELOP OVER NW
ZONES BEFORE SPREADING SOUTH/EAST OVERNIGHT. WILL CARRY 25-40%
POPS N-NW OF KRIC THROUGH 00Z. WITH THE LOW CUTTING OFF OVER US
TONIGHT...THE BEST FORCING FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS OR
HIGH-END CHANCE POPS (50-70%) ACROSS THE NORTHERN NECK/MIDDLE
PENINSULA ONTO THE EASTERN SHORE OVERNIGHT...DECREASING TO ~20
ACROSS SW ZONES (WHERE DRY CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL). CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ELEVATED TSTM OR TWO (GIVEN STEEP H5 TO H7
LAPSE RATES OF 6.5 TO 7C)...BUT WILL PRECLUDE FROM FORECAST ATTM
GIVEN FAIRLY STABLE LOW LEVELS. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 40S...TO
LOW/MID 50S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE WED. AFTER A BRIEF
INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE OVERNIGHT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS BECOME
FAIRLY DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS AS THE TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION
SWING FARTHER OFFSHORE...HOWEVER A FAIRLY SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT
PROGGED ALONG THE COAST. THE ERN SHORE IN PARTICULAR APPEARS TO BE
SET FOR A CLOUDY/COOL DAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. WILL THEREFORE KEEP
CHC POPS (25-50%) LIMITED TO FAR EASTERN VA...WITH LIKELY 60-70%
POPS ON THE EASTERN SHORE. COULD END UP BEING DRY OVER FAR W/SW
ZONES. QPF AMOUNTS TONIGHT/WED WILL AVG 0.25-0.75" ON THE ERN
SHORE...GENLY ONLY AROUND .10" OR LESS ELSEWHERE. FAVOR COOLER END
OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WED...MID 60S SW TO AROUND 60/LOWER 60S NE.
OTHER FEATURE TO NOTE WILL BE THE INCREASING NW WINDS BY AFTN AS
THE SFC LOW INTENSIFIES FAIRLY RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST. GUSTS TO
25-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATER AFTN/EVENING (ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST).

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE WED NIGHT INTO THU...LOCATING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER CHANCES
BY THEN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SHORE (20%). DECREASING
CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. COOL AGAIN THU WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 60-65.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT IN BETWEEN SUB 1000 MB SFC LOW
OFF LONG ISLAND AND 1020 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY. EXPECT
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACRS THE ERN
SHORE...15-25 MPH ELSEWHERE.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR SUNSHINE...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND MILDER
TEMPS. HIGH FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS WELL TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY
MIDWEEK. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY (PERHAPS WARMER TUESDAY). LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. BEHIND THE
FRONT...STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL HELP A COOLER AIRMASS DIVE
INTO THE AREA. DRIZZLE ALONG WITH RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND LAST THROUGH NOON ON WED. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NW AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH WED
AFTN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BEHIND THE STRENGTHENING
SURFACE LOW TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW.
WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20KT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA WED EVENING AS THE SURFACE HIGH
NUDGES FARTHER EAST. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE FA THU
AND FRI WITH STRONGER NW WINDS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...AND ASSOCIATED WIND SPEEDS FM THE
NW STARTING WED AFTN DUE TO INTENSIFYING LO PRES OFF THE CST...HAVE
HOISTED SCA`S FOR ALL WTRS STARTING WED AFTN AND WILL MAINTAIN THEM
THRU AT LEAST THU AFTN FOR NOW. AT THIS TIME...HAVE GUSTS TO ARND 30
KT OVR THE CHES BAY ZNS AND CSTL ZNS FM EARLY WED EVENG THRU THU.
WITH FLOW BEING OFFSHR FM THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT
5-6 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT AND
SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ630>638-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...AJZ/TMG







000
FXUS61 KLWX 211845
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
245 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. BROAD CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL ALSO DROP INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION BY THIS EVENING...AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS
IT MOVES INTO THE TIDEWATER REGION OVERNIGHT.

COMBINATION OF COOL AIR ALOFT...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
MARGINAL SURFACE INSTABILITY IS PRODUCING SCATTERED RAIN AND
SHOWERS OVER THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY...POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND
UPSTREAM ACROSS WV/PA AND OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH AROUND
500 J/KG OF SBCAPE...WILL HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME
ISOLATED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE
60S...WITH A FEW 70S NOTED IN THE VA PIEDMONT. COOLER TEMPS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WHERE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN IS KEEPING TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 50S.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS MOVE
JUST TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. BASIN WIDE
RAIN AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS
OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME LOCAL AREAS MAY SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH
LOCALIZED PERIODS OF MORE MODERATE RAINFALL. STEADY BREEZE AROUND
5-10KT FROM THE NW CONTINUES AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE
BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW INCREASES. LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM
THE LOW 40S IN THE HIGHLANDS TO THE LOW 50S ALONG AND EAST OF
I-95.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
REACHES THE GULF STREAM. WINDS STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 15-20 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRENGTHENING
LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WRAPAROUND RAINFALL
LIKELY AT TIMES OVER EASTERN MD AND PORTIONS OF VA. UPSLOPE RAIN
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL FAVOR LIQUID RAIN OVER MOST
OF THE HIGHLANDS...BUT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN GRANT...PENDLETON
AND HIGHLAND MAY SEE SNOW MIXED IN. LOW TEMPS IN THE 40S ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY THURSDAY AS SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE  SLOWLY SLIDES UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. DOWNSLOPING OF
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ELIMINATE POPS LOCALLY DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...WHERE UPSLOPE
RAIN IS POSSIBLE...AND THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA ALONG
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE
WEAKER FRIDAY. THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL SEE QUIET/DRY
WEATHER AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING KEEPS PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT TEMPS
THIS WEEKEND TO BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
MID-60S...AND TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK TO BE JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN ARE DEVELOPING TO THE WEST...AND WILL MOVE
INTO THE WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE TERMINALS BY THIS EVENING. PERIODS
OF MVFR VSBYS LIKELY WITH RAIN. CIGS LOWER TO MVFR TONIGHT.
PERIODS OF IFR PSBL AS WELL AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS THIS
AFTN AND EVENING...BECG NW AND INCREASING TO AROUND 10KT
OVERNIGHT. LOWER CIGS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WEDNESDAY...AND PERIODIC
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED...UP TO 20-25KT
BY THE AFTERNOON.

THU...VFR. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25KT.

FRI...VFR. NW WINDS AROUND 1OKT.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF AVIATION HAZARDS OVER THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.


CLDY WED NGT BUT CIGS XPCTD TO BE VFR. BRZY NW WINDS XPCTD WED NGT
AND THU. VFR/NO PROBS FRI AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS BECOME N-NW AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT...WITH
SCA GUSTS LIKELY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. POTENTIAL CONTINUES
FOR GALES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OFF THE
NJ/DELMARVA SHORE. MODEL FORECASTS ARE MARGINAL FOR GALES...SO FOR
NOW OPTED TO EXTEND SCA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS LIKELY
TO REACH 30KT IN SOME PARTS OF CHES BAY AT LEAST.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES UP THE NORTHEAST COAST. WINDS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WATERS...THOUGH CURRENTLY THINK THEY
WILL STAY MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20 KNOT RANGE.



&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KCS
NEAR TERM...KCS
SHORT TERM...KCS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...KCS/CEB
MARINE...KCS/CEB








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211833
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
233 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION PRESENT ON CURRENT RADAR AS A DECAYING LOW-
TOPPED MCV HAS STALLED NEAR JEFFERSON COUNTY PA. DESPITE ENHANCED
RADAR REFLECTIVITIES ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE CIRCULATION...THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL REPORTS RECEIVED HAVE BEEN AROUND 1/3" PER HR.
EXAMINATION OF THE INDIVIDUAL RADAR SLICES REVEALS THAT A GOOD
PORTION OF THE ENHANCEMENT IS DUE TO BRIGHT BANDING...WITH
FREEZING LEVELS RIGHT AROUND 7KFT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SW TROF SWINGING SOUTH
THROUGH OHIO WITH AN ATTENDANT VORT MAX THROUGH SRN OHIO. THIS
GENERATED LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SRN SHORE OF LAKE
ERIE THAT HAVE SINCE DE-TATCHED FROM THE LAKE AND HAVE CONGEALED WITH
THE BACK EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CIRCULATION. THIS VORT WILL
EFFECTIVELY CUT-OFF THE UPPER LOW AND ALLOW IT TO DRIFT RIGHT
OVERTOP OF US. WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LLVL MOISTURE AND THE COLD
POOL ALOFT...FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN RAIN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF LAKE-ENHANCED AXIS OF RAIN SHOWERS.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA...ENHANCING NRLY
FLOW ALOFT WRAPPING MOISTURE BACK AROUND THE SYSTEM. THE LLVL FLOW
WILL REMAIN NWRLY ENABLING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT...THUS WILL
CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS IN THE SE RIDGES. ELSEWHERE...MULTIPLE
WEAK MID-LEVEL VORTS ARE PROGGED TO SWING AROUND THE PARENT
LOW...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. KEEPING CHC POPS IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH WEDS
MORNING. WITH TEMPS MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY...LARGE MODIFICATIONS WERE NOT NECESSARY.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD MID LVLS WL PERSIST OVR THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY DESPITE
THE LOW CNTR SHIFTING TWD THE COAST. DESPITE A CONSIDERABLE
REDUCTION IN POPS...SHWRS CHCS IN THE LOW THRESHOLD CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WERE MAINTAINED WITH EMPHASIS OVR THE UPSLOPE AREAS
ALNG THE I 80 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS THE RIDGES. THEREAFTER...WARMING
ALOFT/LOWERING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS ON
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SLGT TO CHC NMBRS WERE KEPT OVR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS.

TRAILING SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR A FRIDAY CROSSING OF THE REGION...BUT
SOME CLDS ARE ALL THAT IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE LACK A THERMAL TROF
ALOFT AS WELL AS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MSTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS WERE TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS TRENDS...BUT
LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE AND VERY SLOW MOVING SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND ACROSS THE AREA OVER THROUGH WEDS. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FOUND PRIMARILY IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS WITH
AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD DECK AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS GENERATED...THUS MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE THROUGH MID-MORNING WEDS. AS OF
15Z MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
DIP AGAIN INTO IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR TONIGHT WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF
LOW CIGS.
TAX

.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DUE TO THE LARGE AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...PERIODIC
RSTRNS COULD LAST THROUGH THURS IN SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 211721
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
121 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO THE NEW
JERSEY COAST THIS EVENING. IT SLOWLY INTENSIFIES WEDNESDAY AND
PASSES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK WILL AWAIT THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT THEN BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ADDED THUNDER TO EXTREME EASTERN NEW JERSEY FOR A COUPLE HOURS AS
WE ARE SEEING RAPIDLY FORMING CONVECTION IN EASTERN OCEAN AND
MONMOUTH COUNTIES. WE HAVE RECEIVED MULTIPLE PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL
REPORTS WITH THESE STORMS ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. FREEZING
LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA ARE AROUND 8KFT AND WITH AMPLE COLD AIR
ALOFT, THOUGH THE COLDEST PART OF THE COLD POOL IS STILL TO OUR
WEST, LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPENING AND WHEN YOU ADD IN A WEAK PSEUDO-
SEABREEZE FOR THE SURFACE FORCING AND 500-1000J/KG OF MUCAPE TO
TAP INTO RAPID DEVELOPMENT OCCURS. THE GOOD THING IS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY BEING SO CLOSE TO THE COAST, WITH A NORTHEAST MOVEMENT,
IT SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS.

OTHERWISE, THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE TIMING
AND COVERAGE OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS, TO OUR WEST, THIS AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. WE
CONTINUED SLIGHT CHC TO CHC POPS FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
FOR THE AFTERNOON, MOSTLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES WITH AN
INCREASE TO LIKELY FOR AREAS CLOSER TO THE INCOMING TROUGH.

THE AIRMASS IS MODERATING AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED WAA WILL YIELD WARMER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES. THERE MAY BE A SQUEEZE PLAY THOUGH AS THE WARMEST
AIR MAY SLIDE UP ACROSS OUR DELMARVA AND EASTERN ZONES. THEREFORE,
A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS RESULTED IN THE WARMEST HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE, THE FLOW SHOULD START TO
SHIFT AROUND FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE
OF THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER OUR AREA BEFORE
CONSOLIDATING SOME JUST TO OUR EAST TOWARD EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
CONSOLIDATE SOME MORE OFF OF OUR COAST. THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVERALL
SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE CLOSED LOW
OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO NEAR OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES TOWARD
DAYBREAK. AS THIS OCCURS, LARGE SCALE LIFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW
SHOULD ORGANIZE AND AREA OF RAIN. THIS LOOKS TO GENERALLY BE ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS A RESULT, LIKELY POPS ARE CARRIED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY LATE WITH THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
VALUES ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES.

WHILE ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN AREAS AS AT LEAST SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD BE
PRESENT, THE CHC APPEARS TO BE RATHER LOW AND THEREFORE IT WAS NOT
CARRIED ATTM. THE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING RAIN AREA HAS THE SIGNATURE
OF WHAT COULD BE THE START OF A PIVOT REGION ACROSS AT LEAST A
PORTION OF OUR AREA STARTING NEAR DAYBREAK. THIS WOULD BE DUE TO THE
CLOSED LOW MOVING OVERHEAD AND THE STRONG SHORT WAVE PIVOTING UP
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES SOME MORE OFFSHORE.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE UTILIZED MAINLY AN EVEN NAM/GFS MOS
BLEND. WHILE THE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR MOST, A NORTHERLY WIND
SHOULD START TO INCREASE SOME MAINLY LATE AS THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE
STARTS TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TO OUR EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB: A LARGE AND VERTICALLY DEEP CLOSED LOW ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO START THE PERIOD WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY.
A POTENTIALLY STRONG SHORT WAVE IS SLATED TO MOVE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA SATURDAY THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA SUNDAY THEN TO BE FOLLOWED
BY TEMPORARY RIDGING NEXT MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVG TEMPS FOR OCTOBER WERE ABOUT 2 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE 20TH AND DIFFICULT TO BELIEVE THIS MONTH
CAN NOW AVERAGE NORMAL OR BELOW. DAILY AVERAGES WILL B A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MINIMUM TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE
NORMAL AND MAXIMUMS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY
BEFORE WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/21 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...THE 00Z/21 GFS MOS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN THEREAFTER (FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD) THE 0502Z/21
WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE. THE 00Z/21 NCEP GUIDANCE MAXIMUM TEMPS MAY BE
SIGNIFICANTLY TOO WARM WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY AND NEXT SUNDAY. THE
WED/THU 00Z/21 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED DOWN WITH THE 00Z/21
ECMWF TEMPS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COULD BE EVEN COOLER THAN THE
330 AM FCST ISSUANCE INDICATED.

PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 21Z/20
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY AND THEREAFTER THE
00Z/21 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES BELOW...

WED-THU...PERIODS OF SHOWERS IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WITH  UNSTABLE
MID LVLS..EVEN SMALL POTENTIAL OF THUNDER NNJ WHERE SWI IS SUB ZERO
AT TIMES. A TROWAL CURLS WESTWARD AROUND THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF
THE DEEP CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. RAIN SHOULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES
WEDNESDAY ALONG THE COAST AND THEN POSSIBLY THURSDAY IN NNJ NEAR
THE AXIS OF THE 850 MB WIND SHIFT (850 MB VORTICITY AXIS) FROM NE
TO NW AND COINCIDENT WITH THE TROWAL.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THU NIGHT-FRIDAY...AS THE LOW ALOFT MOVES AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST
THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN OUR
AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE PREDOMINANT.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE SINCE TIMING OF THE IMPROVEMENT IS UNCERTAIN.

THIS WEEKEND...A SHORT WAVE WITH A 12 HR HFC OF OVER 120 METERS
PASSES THRU NYS AND NEW ENGLAND SAT AND SAT NIGHT. 850 TEMPS IN
ITS WAKE COOL 6C ON THE ECMWF FOR NEXT SUNDAY. THE SHORT WAVE
IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THEREFORE,
WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY RAIN.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE...JUST A MATTER OF INTENSITY OF THE SHORT
WAVE DIVING SEWD TOWARD THE NE USA SAT EVENING AND THE RESULTANT
COOLER 850MB TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.

NEXT MONDAY...A MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST SHOULD BUILD TOWARD
OUR REGION WHEN THE NICEST WEATHER OF THIS 6 DAY EXTENDED PERIOD
SHOULD OCCUR.  CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE FOR A DAY 7 FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MOSTLY VFR. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND THE AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVERHEAD BEFORE STARTING TO CONSOLIDATE SOME
JUST TO OUR EAST TOWARD EVENING. WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS CAN OCCUR
FOR A TIME WITH SHOWERS, THERE IS SOME LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE
TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW-TOPPED
THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER THIS LOOKS TO BE
ISOLATED IF IT WERE TO DEVELOP. A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND WILL SHIFT
TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY, HOWEVER
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR CEILINGS OVERALL. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES WITH SOME SHOWERS. A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF
RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP ESPECIALLY LATE, WHERE SOME MVFR CEILINGS
SHOULD START TO DEVELOP. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE MVFR CEILINGS. THE
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST NEAR 5 KNOTS,
BUT INCREASE SOME TOWARD DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN VFR CIGS AND
MVFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS. POTENTIAL BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS KABE...KTTN AND KACY. NORTH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20 KT
WEDNESDAY AND 25 TO 30 KT THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

SATURDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVERHEAD WILL START TO
CONSOLIDATE SOME OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT A SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND TURNING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TODAY THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST
DURING TONIGHT. GIVEN THE NEARBY LOCATION OF THE ORGANIZING SURFACE
LOW, THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. AFTER SOME
SURGE IN THE SEAS OFFSHORE EARLIER, THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NORTHERLY WINDS MAY
START TO INCREASE THOUGH TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MIDWEEK...A GALE WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR MOST OF OUR WATERS...FOR
OCNL GUSTS AROUND 35 KT WEDNESDAY AFTN POSSIBLY INTO MIDDAY
THURSDAY. ONLY THE UPPER PART OF DELAWARE BAY IS WITHOUT A GALE
WATCH AND THERE WE ISSUED AN SCA.

FUTURE FORECASTS WILL DETERMINE WHETHER THE GALE WATCH IS A BIT
TOO ROBUST AND WE`LL NEED TO SETTLE FOR A STRONG SCA. FOR NOW...BE
PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF GALES. AT THIS TIME...AM 60 PERCENT
CONFIDENT THAT AT LEAST THE S NJ AND DE COASTAL WATERS WILL VERIFY
A GALE BY THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE: A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE.


THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. SCA LIKELY. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
15-20 KT. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211540
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1140 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION PRESENT ON CURRENT RADAR AS AN MCV FEATURE
IS VERY SLOWLY MOVING W TO E ACROSS THE NRN 1/3 OF THE CWA.
DESPITE ENHANCED RADAR REFLECTIVITIES ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE
MCV CIRCULATION...THE HIGHEST RAINFALL REPORTS RECEIVED HAVE BEEN
AROUND 1/3" PER HR. EXAMINATION OF THE INDIVIDUAL RADAR SLICES
REVEALS THAT A GOOD PORTION OF THE ENHANCEMENT IS DUE TO BRIGHT
BANDING ON THE RADAR...WITH FREEZING LEVELS RIGHT AROUND 7KFT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SW SWINGING SOUTH THROUGH
LAKE ERIE WITH AN ATTENDANT VORT MAX THROUGH OHIO. THIS IS
GENERATING LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SRN SHORE OF LAKE
ERIE EXTENDING INTO OUR NRN CWA AND CONGEALING WITH THE BACK EDGE
OF THE SLOW MOVING CIRCULATION CURRENTLY OVER THE NE CWA. THIS
VORT WILL EFFECTIVELY CUT-OFF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AND ALLOW IT TO DRIFT RIGHT OVERTOP OF US. WITH COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF LLVL MOISTURE AND THE COLD POOL ALOFT MAXIMIZING OVER
OUR AREA NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WOULD EXPECT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN RAIN SHOWERS. WE ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE
THIS OVER NRN WV AFTER A RELATIVELY DRY MORNING.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA...ENHANCING NRLY
FLOW ALOFT WRAPPING MOISTURE BACK AROUND THE SYSTEM. THE LLVL FLOW
WILL REMAIN NWRLY ENABLING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT...THUS WILL
CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS IN THE SE RIDGES. ELSEWHERE...MULTIPLE
WEAK MID-LEVEL VORTS ARE PROGGED TO SWING AROUND THE PARENT
LOW...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. KEEPING CHC POPS IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH WEDS
MORNING. WITH TEMPS MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY...LARGE MODIFICATIONS WERE NOT NECESSARY.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD MID LVLS WL PERSIST OVR THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY DESPITE
THE LOW CNTR SHIFTING TWD THE COAST. DESPITE A CONSIDERABLE
REDUCTION IN POPS...SHWRS CHCS IN THE LOW THRESHOLD CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WERE MAINTAINED WITH EMPHASIS OVR THE UPSLOPE AREAS
ALNG THE I 80 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS THE RIDGES. THEREAFTER...WARMING
ALOFT/LOWERING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS ON
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SLGT TO CHC NMBRS WERE KEPT OVR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS.

TRAILING SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR A FRIDAY CROSSING OF THE REGION...BUT
SOME CLDS ARE ALL THAT IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE LACK A THERMAL TROF
ALOFT AS WELL AS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MSTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS WERE TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS TRENDS...BUT
LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE AND VERY SLOW MOVING SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND ACROSS THE AREA OVER THROUGH WEDS. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FOUND PRIMARILY IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS WITH
AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD DECK AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS GENERATED...THUS MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE THROUGH MID-MORNING WEDS. AS OF
15Z MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
DIP AGAIN INTO IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR TONIGHT WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF
LOW CIGS.
TAX

.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DUE TO THE LARGE AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...PERIODIC
RSTRNS COULD LAST THROUGH THURS IN SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211540
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1140 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION PRESENT ON CURRENT RADAR AS AN MCV FEATURE
IS VERY SLOWLY MOVING W TO E ACROSS THE NRN 1/3 OF THE CWA.
DESPITE ENHANCED RADAR REFLECTIVITIES ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE
MCV CIRCULATION...THE HIGHEST RAINFALL REPORTS RECEIVED HAVE BEEN
AROUND 1/3" PER HR. EXAMINATION OF THE INDIVIDUAL RADAR SLICES
REVEALS THAT A GOOD PORTION OF THE ENHANCEMENT IS DUE TO BRIGHT
BANDING ON THE RADAR...WITH FREEZING LEVELS RIGHT AROUND 7KFT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SW SWINGING SOUTH THROUGH
LAKE ERIE WITH AN ATTENDANT VORT MAX THROUGH OHIO. THIS IS
GENERATING LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SRN SHORE OF LAKE
ERIE EXTENDING INTO OUR NRN CWA AND CONGEALING WITH THE BACK EDGE
OF THE SLOW MOVING CIRCULATION CURRENTLY OVER THE NE CWA. THIS
VORT WILL EFFECTIVELY CUT-OFF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AND ALLOW IT TO DRIFT RIGHT OVERTOP OF US. WITH COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF LLVL MOISTURE AND THE COLD POOL ALOFT MAXIMIZING OVER
OUR AREA NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WOULD EXPECT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN RAIN SHOWERS. WE ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE
THIS OVER NRN WV AFTER A RELATIVELY DRY MORNING.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA...ENHANCING NRLY
FLOW ALOFT WRAPPING MOISTURE BACK AROUND THE SYSTEM. THE LLVL FLOW
WILL REMAIN NWRLY ENABLING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT...THUS WILL
CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS IN THE SE RIDGES. ELSEWHERE...MULTIPLE
WEAK MID-LEVEL VORTS ARE PROGGED TO SWING AROUND THE PARENT
LOW...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. KEEPING CHC POPS IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH WEDS
MORNING. WITH TEMPS MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY...LARGE MODIFICATIONS WERE NOT NECESSARY.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD MID LVLS WL PERSIST OVR THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY DESPITE
THE LOW CNTR SHIFTING TWD THE COAST. DESPITE A CONSIDERABLE
REDUCTION IN POPS...SHWRS CHCS IN THE LOW THRESHOLD CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WERE MAINTAINED WITH EMPHASIS OVR THE UPSLOPE AREAS
ALNG THE I 80 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS THE RIDGES. THEREAFTER...WARMING
ALOFT/LOWERING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS ON
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SLGT TO CHC NMBRS WERE KEPT OVR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS.

TRAILING SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR A FRIDAY CROSSING OF THE REGION...BUT
SOME CLDS ARE ALL THAT IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE LACK A THERMAL TROF
ALOFT AS WELL AS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MSTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS WERE TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS TRENDS...BUT
LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE AND VERY SLOW MOVING SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND ACROSS THE AREA OVER THROUGH WEDS. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FOUND PRIMARILY IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS WITH
AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD DECK AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS GENERATED...THUS MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE THROUGH MID-MORNING WEDS. AS OF
15Z MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
DIP AGAIN INTO IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR TONIGHT WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF
LOW CIGS.
TAX

.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DUE TO THE LARGE AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...PERIODIC
RSTRNS COULD LAST THROUGH THURS IN SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211540
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1140 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION PRESENT ON CURRENT RADAR AS AN MCV FEATURE
IS VERY SLOWLY MOVING W TO E ACROSS THE NRN 1/3 OF THE CWA.
DESPITE ENHANCED RADAR REFLECTIVITIES ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE
MCV CIRCULATION...THE HIGHEST RAINFALL REPORTS RECEIVED HAVE BEEN
AROUND 1/3" PER HR. EXAMINATION OF THE INDIVIDUAL RADAR SLICES
REVEALS THAT A GOOD PORTION OF THE ENHANCEMENT IS DUE TO BRIGHT
BANDING ON THE RADAR...WITH FREEZING LEVELS RIGHT AROUND 7KFT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SW SWINGING SOUTH THROUGH
LAKE ERIE WITH AN ATTENDANT VORT MAX THROUGH OHIO. THIS IS
GENERATING LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SRN SHORE OF LAKE
ERIE EXTENDING INTO OUR NRN CWA AND CONGEALING WITH THE BACK EDGE
OF THE SLOW MOVING CIRCULATION CURRENTLY OVER THE NE CWA. THIS
VORT WILL EFFECTIVELY CUT-OFF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AND ALLOW IT TO DRIFT RIGHT OVERTOP OF US. WITH COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF LLVL MOISTURE AND THE COLD POOL ALOFT MAXIMIZING OVER
OUR AREA NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WOULD EXPECT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN RAIN SHOWERS. WE ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE
THIS OVER NRN WV AFTER A RELATIVELY DRY MORNING.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA...ENHANCING NRLY
FLOW ALOFT WRAPPING MOISTURE BACK AROUND THE SYSTEM. THE LLVL FLOW
WILL REMAIN NWRLY ENABLING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT...THUS WILL
CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS IN THE SE RIDGES. ELSEWHERE...MULTIPLE
WEAK MID-LEVEL VORTS ARE PROGGED TO SWING AROUND THE PARENT
LOW...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. KEEPING CHC POPS IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH WEDS
MORNING. WITH TEMPS MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY...LARGE MODIFICATIONS WERE NOT NECESSARY.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD MID LVLS WL PERSIST OVR THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY DESPITE
THE LOW CNTR SHIFTING TWD THE COAST. DESPITE A CONSIDERABLE
REDUCTION IN POPS...SHWRS CHCS IN THE LOW THRESHOLD CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WERE MAINTAINED WITH EMPHASIS OVR THE UPSLOPE AREAS
ALNG THE I 80 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS THE RIDGES. THEREAFTER...WARMING
ALOFT/LOWERING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS ON
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SLGT TO CHC NMBRS WERE KEPT OVR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS.

TRAILING SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR A FRIDAY CROSSING OF THE REGION...BUT
SOME CLDS ARE ALL THAT IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE LACK A THERMAL TROF
ALOFT AS WELL AS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MSTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS WERE TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS TRENDS...BUT
LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE AND VERY SLOW MOVING SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND ACROSS THE AREA OVER THROUGH WEDS. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FOUND PRIMARILY IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS WITH
AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD DECK AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS GENERATED...THUS MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE THROUGH MID-MORNING WEDS. AS OF
15Z MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
DIP AGAIN INTO IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR TONIGHT WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF
LOW CIGS.
TAX

.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DUE TO THE LARGE AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...PERIODIC
RSTRNS COULD LAST THROUGH THURS IN SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211540
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1140 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION PRESENT ON CURRENT RADAR AS AN MCV FEATURE
IS VERY SLOWLY MOVING W TO E ACROSS THE NRN 1/3 OF THE CWA.
DESPITE ENHANCED RADAR REFLECTIVITIES ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE
MCV CIRCULATION...THE HIGHEST RAINFALL REPORTS RECEIVED HAVE BEEN
AROUND 1/3" PER HR. EXAMINATION OF THE INDIVIDUAL RADAR SLICES
REVEALS THAT A GOOD PORTION OF THE ENHANCEMENT IS DUE TO BRIGHT
BANDING ON THE RADAR...WITH FREEZING LEVELS RIGHT AROUND 7KFT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SW SWINGING SOUTH THROUGH
LAKE ERIE WITH AN ATTENDANT VORT MAX THROUGH OHIO. THIS IS
GENERATING LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SRN SHORE OF LAKE
ERIE EXTENDING INTO OUR NRN CWA AND CONGEALING WITH THE BACK EDGE
OF THE SLOW MOVING CIRCULATION CURRENTLY OVER THE NE CWA. THIS
VORT WILL EFFECTIVELY CUT-OFF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AND ALLOW IT TO DRIFT RIGHT OVERTOP OF US. WITH COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF LLVL MOISTURE AND THE COLD POOL ALOFT MAXIMIZING OVER
OUR AREA NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WOULD EXPECT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN RAIN SHOWERS. WE ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE
THIS OVER NRN WV AFTER A RELATIVELY DRY MORNING.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA...ENHANCING NRLY
FLOW ALOFT WRAPPING MOISTURE BACK AROUND THE SYSTEM. THE LLVL FLOW
WILL REMAIN NWRLY ENABLING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT...THUS WILL
CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS IN THE SE RIDGES. ELSEWHERE...MULTIPLE
WEAK MID-LEVEL VORTS ARE PROGGED TO SWING AROUND THE PARENT
LOW...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. KEEPING CHC POPS IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH WEDS
MORNING. WITH TEMPS MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY...LARGE MODIFICATIONS WERE NOT NECESSARY.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD MID LVLS WL PERSIST OVR THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY DESPITE
THE LOW CNTR SHIFTING TWD THE COAST. DESPITE A CONSIDERABLE
REDUCTION IN POPS...SHWRS CHCS IN THE LOW THRESHOLD CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WERE MAINTAINED WITH EMPHASIS OVR THE UPSLOPE AREAS
ALNG THE I 80 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS THE RIDGES. THEREAFTER...WARMING
ALOFT/LOWERING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS ON
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SLGT TO CHC NMBRS WERE KEPT OVR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS.

TRAILING SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR A FRIDAY CROSSING OF THE REGION...BUT
SOME CLDS ARE ALL THAT IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE LACK A THERMAL TROF
ALOFT AS WELL AS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MSTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS WERE TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS TRENDS...BUT
LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE AND VERY SLOW MOVING SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND ACROSS THE AREA OVER THROUGH WEDS. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FOUND PRIMARILY IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS WITH
AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD DECK AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS GENERATED...THUS MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE THROUGH MID-MORNING WEDS. AS OF
15Z MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
DIP AGAIN INTO IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR TONIGHT WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF
LOW CIGS.
TAX

.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DUE TO THE LARGE AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...PERIODIC
RSTRNS COULD LAST THROUGH THURS IN SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211540
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1140 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION PRESENT ON CURRENT RADAR AS AN MCV FEATURE
IS VERY SLOWLY MOVING W TO E ACROSS THE NRN 1/3 OF THE CWA.
DESPITE ENHANCED RADAR REFLECTIVITIES ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE
MCV CIRCULATION...THE HIGHEST RAINFALL REPORTS RECEIVED HAVE BEEN
AROUND 1/3" PER HR. EXAMINATION OF THE INDIVIDUAL RADAR SLICES
REVEALS THAT A GOOD PORTION OF THE ENHANCEMENT IS DUE TO BRIGHT
BANDING ON THE RADAR...WITH FREEZING LEVELS RIGHT AROUND 7KFT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SW SWINGING SOUTH THROUGH
LAKE ERIE WITH AN ATTENDANT VORT MAX THROUGH OHIO. THIS IS
GENERATING LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SRN SHORE OF LAKE
ERIE EXTENDING INTO OUR NRN CWA AND CONGEALING WITH THE BACK EDGE
OF THE SLOW MOVING CIRCULATION CURRENTLY OVER THE NE CWA. THIS
VORT WILL EFFECTIVELY CUT-OFF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AND ALLOW IT TO DRIFT RIGHT OVERTOP OF US. WITH COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF LLVL MOISTURE AND THE COLD POOL ALOFT MAXIMIZING OVER
OUR AREA NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WOULD EXPECT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN RAIN SHOWERS. WE ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE
THIS OVER NRN WV AFTER A RELATIVELY DRY MORNING.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA...ENHANCING NRLY
FLOW ALOFT WRAPPING MOISTURE BACK AROUND THE SYSTEM. THE LLVL FLOW
WILL REMAIN NWRLY ENABLING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT...THUS WILL
CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS IN THE SE RIDGES. ELSEWHERE...MULTIPLE
WEAK MID-LEVEL VORTS ARE PROGGED TO SWING AROUND THE PARENT
LOW...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. KEEPING CHC POPS IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH WEDS
MORNING. WITH TEMPS MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY...LARGE MODIFICATIONS WERE NOT NECESSARY.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD MID LVLS WL PERSIST OVR THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY DESPITE
THE LOW CNTR SHIFTING TWD THE COAST. DESPITE A CONSIDERABLE
REDUCTION IN POPS...SHWRS CHCS IN THE LOW THRESHOLD CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WERE MAINTAINED WITH EMPHASIS OVR THE UPSLOPE AREAS
ALNG THE I 80 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS THE RIDGES. THEREAFTER...WARMING
ALOFT/LOWERING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS ON
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SLGT TO CHC NMBRS WERE KEPT OVR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS.

TRAILING SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR A FRIDAY CROSSING OF THE REGION...BUT
SOME CLDS ARE ALL THAT IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE LACK A THERMAL TROF
ALOFT AS WELL AS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MSTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS WERE TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS TRENDS...BUT
LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE AND VERY SLOW MOVING SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND ACROSS THE AREA OVER THROUGH WEDS. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FOUND PRIMARILY IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS WITH
AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD DECK AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS GENERATED...THUS MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE THROUGH MID-MORNING WEDS. AS OF
15Z MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
DIP AGAIN INTO IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR TONIGHT WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF
LOW CIGS.
TAX

.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DUE TO THE LARGE AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...PERIODIC
RSTRNS COULD LAST THROUGH THURS IN SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211540
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1140 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION PRESENT ON CURRENT RADAR AS AN MCV FEATURE
IS VERY SLOWLY MOVING W TO E ACROSS THE NRN 1/3 OF THE CWA.
DESPITE ENHANCED RADAR REFLECTIVITIES ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE
MCV CIRCULATION...THE HIGHEST RAINFALL REPORTS RECEIVED HAVE BEEN
AROUND 1/3" PER HR. EXAMINATION OF THE INDIVIDUAL RADAR SLICES
REVEALS THAT A GOOD PORTION OF THE ENHANCEMENT IS DUE TO BRIGHT
BANDING ON THE RADAR...WITH FREEZING LEVELS RIGHT AROUND 7KFT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SW SWINGING SOUTH THROUGH
LAKE ERIE WITH AN ATTENDANT VORT MAX THROUGH OHIO. THIS IS
GENERATING LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SRN SHORE OF LAKE
ERIE EXTENDING INTO OUR NRN CWA AND CONGEALING WITH THE BACK EDGE
OF THE SLOW MOVING CIRCULATION CURRENTLY OVER THE NE CWA. THIS
VORT WILL EFFECTIVELY CUT-OFF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AND ALLOW IT TO DRIFT RIGHT OVERTOP OF US. WITH COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF LLVL MOISTURE AND THE COLD POOL ALOFT MAXIMIZING OVER
OUR AREA NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WOULD EXPECT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN RAIN SHOWERS. WE ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE
THIS OVER NRN WV AFTER A RELATIVELY DRY MORNING.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA...ENHANCING NRLY
FLOW ALOFT WRAPPING MOISTURE BACK AROUND THE SYSTEM. THE LLVL FLOW
WILL REMAIN NWRLY ENABLING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT...THUS WILL
CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS IN THE SE RIDGES. ELSEWHERE...MULTIPLE
WEAK MID-LEVEL VORTS ARE PROGGED TO SWING AROUND THE PARENT
LOW...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. KEEPING CHC POPS IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH WEDS
MORNING. WITH TEMPS MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY...LARGE MODIFICATIONS WERE NOT NECESSARY.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD MID LVLS WL PERSIST OVR THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY DESPITE
THE LOW CNTR SHIFTING TWD THE COAST. DESPITE A CONSIDERABLE
REDUCTION IN POPS...SHWRS CHCS IN THE LOW THRESHOLD CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WERE MAINTAINED WITH EMPHASIS OVR THE UPSLOPE AREAS
ALNG THE I 80 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS THE RIDGES. THEREAFTER...WARMING
ALOFT/LOWERING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS ON
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SLGT TO CHC NMBRS WERE KEPT OVR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS.

TRAILING SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR A FRIDAY CROSSING OF THE REGION...BUT
SOME CLDS ARE ALL THAT IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE LACK A THERMAL TROF
ALOFT AS WELL AS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MSTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS WERE TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS TRENDS...BUT
LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE AND VERY SLOW MOVING SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND ACROSS THE AREA OVER THROUGH WEDS. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FOUND PRIMARILY IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS WITH
AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD DECK AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS GENERATED...THUS MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE THROUGH MID-MORNING WEDS. AS OF
15Z MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
DIP AGAIN INTO IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR TONIGHT WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF
LOW CIGS.
TAX

.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DUE TO THE LARGE AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...PERIODIC
RSTRNS COULD LAST THROUGH THURS IN SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211540
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1140 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION PRESENT ON CURRENT RADAR AS AN MCV FEATURE
IS VERY SLOWLY MOVING W TO E ACROSS THE NRN 1/3 OF THE CWA.
DESPITE ENHANCED RADAR REFLECTIVITIES ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE
MCV CIRCULATION...THE HIGHEST RAINFALL REPORTS RECEIVED HAVE BEEN
AROUND 1/3" PER HR. EXAMINATION OF THE INDIVIDUAL RADAR SLICES
REVEALS THAT A GOOD PORTION OF THE ENHANCEMENT IS DUE TO BRIGHT
BANDING ON THE RADAR...WITH FREEZING LEVELS RIGHT AROUND 7KFT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SW SWINGING SOUTH THROUGH
LAKE ERIE WITH AN ATTENDANT VORT MAX THROUGH OHIO. THIS IS
GENERATING LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SRN SHORE OF LAKE
ERIE EXTENDING INTO OUR NRN CWA AND CONGEALING WITH THE BACK EDGE
OF THE SLOW MOVING CIRCULATION CURRENTLY OVER THE NE CWA. THIS
VORT WILL EFFECTIVELY CUT-OFF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AND ALLOW IT TO DRIFT RIGHT OVERTOP OF US. WITH COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF LLVL MOISTURE AND THE COLD POOL ALOFT MAXIMIZING OVER
OUR AREA NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WOULD EXPECT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN RAIN SHOWERS. WE ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE
THIS OVER NRN WV AFTER A RELATIVELY DRY MORNING.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA...ENHANCING NRLY
FLOW ALOFT WRAPPING MOISTURE BACK AROUND THE SYSTEM. THE LLVL FLOW
WILL REMAIN NWRLY ENABLING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT...THUS WILL
CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS IN THE SE RIDGES. ELSEWHERE...MULTIPLE
WEAK MID-LEVEL VORTS ARE PROGGED TO SWING AROUND THE PARENT
LOW...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. KEEPING CHC POPS IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH WEDS
MORNING. WITH TEMPS MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY...LARGE MODIFICATIONS WERE NOT NECESSARY.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD MID LVLS WL PERSIST OVR THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY DESPITE
THE LOW CNTR SHIFTING TWD THE COAST. DESPITE A CONSIDERABLE
REDUCTION IN POPS...SHWRS CHCS IN THE LOW THRESHOLD CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WERE MAINTAINED WITH EMPHASIS OVR THE UPSLOPE AREAS
ALNG THE I 80 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS THE RIDGES. THEREAFTER...WARMING
ALOFT/LOWERING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS ON
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SLGT TO CHC NMBRS WERE KEPT OVR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS.

TRAILING SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR A FRIDAY CROSSING OF THE REGION...BUT
SOME CLDS ARE ALL THAT IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE LACK A THERMAL TROF
ALOFT AS WELL AS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MSTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS WERE TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS TRENDS...BUT
LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE AND VERY SLOW MOVING SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND ACROSS THE AREA OVER THROUGH WEDS. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FOUND PRIMARILY IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS WITH
AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD DECK AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS GENERATED...THUS MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE THROUGH MID-MORNING WEDS. AS OF
15Z MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
DIP AGAIN INTO IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR TONIGHT WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF
LOW CIGS.
TAX

.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DUE TO THE LARGE AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...PERIODIC
RSTRNS COULD LAST THROUGH THURS IN SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211540
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1140 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION PRESENT ON CURRENT RADAR AS AN MCV FEATURE
IS VERY SLOWLY MOVING W TO E ACROSS THE NRN 1/3 OF THE CWA.
DESPITE ENHANCED RADAR REFLECTIVITIES ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE
MCV CIRCULATION...THE HIGHEST RAINFALL REPORTS RECEIVED HAVE BEEN
AROUND 1/3" PER HR. EXAMINATION OF THE INDIVIDUAL RADAR SLICES
REVEALS THAT A GOOD PORTION OF THE ENHANCEMENT IS DUE TO BRIGHT
BANDING ON THE RADAR...WITH FREEZING LEVELS RIGHT AROUND 7KFT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SW SWINGING SOUTH THROUGH
LAKE ERIE WITH AN ATTENDANT VORT MAX THROUGH OHIO. THIS IS
GENERATING LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SRN SHORE OF LAKE
ERIE EXTENDING INTO OUR NRN CWA AND CONGEALING WITH THE BACK EDGE
OF THE SLOW MOVING CIRCULATION CURRENTLY OVER THE NE CWA. THIS
VORT WILL EFFECTIVELY CUT-OFF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AND ALLOW IT TO DRIFT RIGHT OVERTOP OF US. WITH COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF LLVL MOISTURE AND THE COLD POOL ALOFT MAXIMIZING OVER
OUR AREA NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WOULD EXPECT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN RAIN SHOWERS. WE ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE
THIS OVER NRN WV AFTER A RELATIVELY DRY MORNING.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA...ENHANCING NRLY
FLOW ALOFT WRAPPING MOISTURE BACK AROUND THE SYSTEM. THE LLVL FLOW
WILL REMAIN NWRLY ENABLING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT...THUS WILL
CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS IN THE SE RIDGES. ELSEWHERE...MULTIPLE
WEAK MID-LEVEL VORTS ARE PROGGED TO SWING AROUND THE PARENT
LOW...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. KEEPING CHC POPS IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH WEDS
MORNING. WITH TEMPS MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY...LARGE MODIFICATIONS WERE NOT NECESSARY.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD MID LVLS WL PERSIST OVR THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY DESPITE
THE LOW CNTR SHIFTING TWD THE COAST. DESPITE A CONSIDERABLE
REDUCTION IN POPS...SHWRS CHCS IN THE LOW THRESHOLD CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WERE MAINTAINED WITH EMPHASIS OVR THE UPSLOPE AREAS
ALNG THE I 80 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS THE RIDGES. THEREAFTER...WARMING
ALOFT/LOWERING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS ON
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SLGT TO CHC NMBRS WERE KEPT OVR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS.

TRAILING SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR A FRIDAY CROSSING OF THE REGION...BUT
SOME CLDS ARE ALL THAT IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE LACK A THERMAL TROF
ALOFT AS WELL AS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MSTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS WERE TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS TRENDS...BUT
LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE AND VERY SLOW MOVING SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND ACROSS THE AREA OVER THROUGH WEDS. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FOUND PRIMARILY IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS WITH
AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD DECK AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS GENERATED...THUS MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE THROUGH MID-MORNING WEDS. AS OF
15Z MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
DIP AGAIN INTO IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR TONIGHT WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF
LOW CIGS.
TAX

.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DUE TO THE LARGE AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...PERIODIC
RSTRNS COULD LAST THROUGH THURS IN SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 211403
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1003 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO THE NEW
JERSEY COAST THIS EVENING. IT SLOWLY INTENSIFIES WEDNESDAY AND
PASSES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK WILL AWAIT THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT THEN BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CHANGES TO THE GRIDS THIS MORNING INCLUDE A LOWERING OF THE POPS
AND SKY COVER AS THE DRY SLOT HAS REALLY PUNCHED INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. REGIONAL RADAR STILL SHOWING SOME LIGHT
ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND FURTHER OFFSHORE AND SOME
MORE MODERATE LOOKING SHOWERS IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. BOTH OF
THESE FEATURES ARE MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM OUR
REGION. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE ROBUST MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO LOWER NEW YORK STATE AND WITH IT THE BETTER
LIFT AND DYNAMICS THUS ARE DECREASING TREND IN POPS THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. SKY COVER HAS THE SAME TREND THIS MORNING AS DO
THE POPS BUT WITH BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THAN THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS AND NEARING THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WE SHOULD SEE A
SELF DESTRUCTING SKY THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE, THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE TIMING AND COVERAGE
OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORT
WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THE SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING, BUT THIS IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE LOWEST
LEVELS WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED STORM. GIVEN LESS
CERTAINTY, WE HELD OFF ON ADDING A THUNDER MENTION. WE CONTINUED
SLIGHT CHC TO CHC POPS FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY, MOSTLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES WITH AN INCREASE TO FOR AREAS
CLOSER TO THE INCOMING TROUGH.

THE AIRMASS IS MODERATING AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED WAA WILL YIELD WARMER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES. THERE MAY BE A SQUEEZE PLAY THOUGH AS THE WARMEST
AIR MAY SLIDE UP ACROSS OUR DELMARVA AND EASTERN ZONES. THEREFORE,
A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS RESULTED IN THE WARMEST HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE, THE FLOW SHOULD START TO
SHIFT AROUND FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE
OF THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER OUR AREA BEFORE
CONSOLIDATING SOME JUST TO OUR EAST TOWARD EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
CONSOLIDATE SOME MORE OFF OF OUR COAST. THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVERALL
SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE CLOSED LOW
OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO NEAR OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES TOWARD
DAYBREAK. AS THIS OCCURS, LARGE SCALE LIFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW
SHOULD ORGANIZE AND AREA OF RAIN. THIS LOOKS TO GENERALLY BE ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS A RESULT, LIKELY POPS ARE CARRIED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY LATE WITH THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
VALUES ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES.

WHILE ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN AREAS AS AT LEAST SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD BE
PRESENT, THE CHC APPEARS TO BE RATHER LOW AND THEREFORE IT WAS NOT
CARRIED ATTM. THE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING RAIN AREA HAS THE SIGNATURE
OF WHAT COULD BE THE START OF A PIVOT REGION ACROSS AT LEAST A
PORTION OF OUR AREA STARTING NEAR DAYBREAK. THIS WOULD BE DUE TO THE
CLOSED LOW MOVING OVERHEAD AND THE STRONG SHORT WAVE PIVOTING UP
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES SOME MORE OFFSHORE.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE UTILIZED MAINLY AN EVEN NAM/GFS MOS
BLEND. WHILE THE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR MOST, A NORTHERLY WIND
SHOULD START TO INCREASE SOME MAINLY LATE AS THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE
STARTS TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TO OUR EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB: A LARGE AND VERTICALLY DEEP CLOSED LOW ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO START THE PERIOD WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY.
A POTENTIALLY STRONG SHORT WAVE IS SLATED TO MOVE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA SATURDAY THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA SUNDAY THEN TO BE FOLLOWED
BY TEMPORARY RIDGING NEXT MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVG TEMPS FOR OCTOBER WERE ABOUT 2 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE 20TH AND DIFFICULT TO BELIEVE THIS MONTH
CAN NOW AVERAGE NORMAL OR BELOW. DAILY AVERAGES WILL B A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MINIMUM TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE
NORMAL AND MAXIMUMS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY
BEFORE WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/21 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...THE 00Z/21 GFS MOS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN THEREAFTER (FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD) THE 0502Z/21
WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE. THE 00Z/21 NCEP GUIDANCE MAXIMUM TEMPS MAY BE
SIGNIFICANTLY TOO WARM WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY AND NEXT SUNDAY. THE
WED/THU 00Z/21 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED DOWN WITH THE 00Z/21
ECMWF TEMPS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COULD BE EVEN COOLER THAN THE
330 AM FCST ISSUANCE INDICATED.

PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 21Z/20
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY AND THEREAFTER THE
00Z/21 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES BELOW...

WED-THU...PERIODS OF SHOWERS IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WITH  UNSTABLE
MID LVLS..EVEN SMALL POTENTIAL OF THUNDER NNJ WHERE SWI IS SUB ZERO
AT TIMES. A TROWAL CURLS WESTWARD AROUND THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF
THE DEEP CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. RAIN SHOULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES
WEDNESDAY ALONG THE COAST AND THEN POSSIBLY THURSDAY IN NNJ NEAR
THE AXIS OF THE 850 MB WIND SHIFT (850 MB VORTICITY AXIS) FROM NE
TO NW AND COINCIDENT WITH THE TROWAL.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THU NIGHT-FRIDAY...AS THE LOW ALOFT MOVES AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST
THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN OUR
AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE PREDOMINANT.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE SINCE TIMING OF THE IMPROVEMENT IS UNCERTAIN.

THIS WEEKEND...A SHORT WAVE WITH A 12 HR HFC OF OVER 120 METERS
PASSES THRU NYS AND NEW ENGLAND SAT AND SAT NIGHT. 850 TEMPS IN
ITS WAKE COOL 6C ON THE ECMWF FOR NEXT SUNDAY. THE SHORT WAVE
IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THEREFORE,
WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY RAIN.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE...JUST A MATTER OF INTENSITY OF THE SHORT
WAVE DIVING SEWD TOWARD THE NE USA SAT EVENING AND THE RESULTANT
COOLER 850MB TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.

NEXT MONDAY...A MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST SHOULD BUILD TOWARD
OUR REGION WHEN THE NICEST WEATHER OF THIS 6 DAY EXTENDED PERIOD
SHOULD OCCUR.  CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE FOR A DAY 7 FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MOSTLY VFR. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND THE AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVERHEAD BEFORE STARTING TO CONSOLIDATE SOME
JUST TO OUR EAST TOWARD EVENING. WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS CAN OCCUR
FOR A TIME WITH SHOWERS, THERE IS SOME LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE
TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW-TOPPED
THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER THIS LOOKS TO BE
ISOLATED IF IT WERE TO DEVELOP. A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND WILL SHIFT
TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY, HOWEVER
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR CEILINGS OVERALL. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES WITH SOME SHOWERS. A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF
RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP ESPECIALLY LATE, WHERE SOME MVFR CEILINGS
SHOULD START TO DEVELOP. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE MVFR CEILINGS. THE
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST NEAR 5 KNOTS,
BUT INCREASE SOME TOWARD DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN VFR CIGS AND
MVFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS. POTENTIAL BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS KABE...KTTN AND KACY. NORTH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20 KT
WEDNESDAY AND 25 TO 30 KT THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

SATURDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVERHEAD WILL START TO
CONSOLIDATE SOME OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT A SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND TURNING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TODAY THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST
DURING TONIGHT. GIVEN THE NEARBY LOCATION OF THE ORGANIZING SURFACE
LOW, THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. AFTER SOME
SURGE IN THE SEAS OFFSHORE EARLIER, THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NORTHERLY WINDS MAY
START TO INCREASE THOUGH TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MIDWEEK...A GALE WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR MOST OF OUR WATERS...FOR
OCNL GUSTS AROUND 35 KT WEDNESDAY AFTN POSSIBLY INTO MIDDAY
THURSDAY. ONLY THE UPPER PART OF DELAWARE BAY IS WITHOUT A GALE
WATCH AND THERE WE ISSUED AN SCA.

FUTURE FORECASTS WILL DETERMINE WHETHER THE GALE WATCH IS A BIT
TOO ROBUST AND WE`LL NEED TO SETTLE FOR A STRONG SCA. FOR NOW...BE
PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF GALES. AT THIS TIME...AM 60 PERCENT
CONFIDENT THAT AT LEAST THE S NJ AND DE COASTAL WATERS WILL VERIFY
A GALE BY THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE: A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE.


THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. SCA LIKELY. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
15-20 KT. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE







000
FXUS61 KPHI 211403
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1003 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO THE NEW
JERSEY COAST THIS EVENING. IT SLOWLY INTENSIFIES WEDNESDAY AND
PASSES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK WILL AWAIT THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT THEN BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CHANGES TO THE GRIDS THIS MORNING INCLUDE A LOWERING OF THE POPS
AND SKY COVER AS THE DRY SLOT HAS REALLY PUNCHED INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. REGIONAL RADAR STILL SHOWING SOME LIGHT
ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND FURTHER OFFSHORE AND SOME
MORE MODERATE LOOKING SHOWERS IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. BOTH OF
THESE FEATURES ARE MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM OUR
REGION. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE ROBUST MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO LOWER NEW YORK STATE AND WITH IT THE BETTER
LIFT AND DYNAMICS THUS ARE DECREASING TREND IN POPS THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. SKY COVER HAS THE SAME TREND THIS MORNING AS DO
THE POPS BUT WITH BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THAN THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS AND NEARING THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WE SHOULD SEE A
SELF DESTRUCTING SKY THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE, THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE TIMING AND COVERAGE
OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORT
WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THE SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING, BUT THIS IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE LOWEST
LEVELS WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED STORM. GIVEN LESS
CERTAINTY, WE HELD OFF ON ADDING A THUNDER MENTION. WE CONTINUED
SLIGHT CHC TO CHC POPS FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY, MOSTLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES WITH AN INCREASE TO FOR AREAS
CLOSER TO THE INCOMING TROUGH.

THE AIRMASS IS MODERATING AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED WAA WILL YIELD WARMER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES. THERE MAY BE A SQUEEZE PLAY THOUGH AS THE WARMEST
AIR MAY SLIDE UP ACROSS OUR DELMARVA AND EASTERN ZONES. THEREFORE,
A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS RESULTED IN THE WARMEST HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE, THE FLOW SHOULD START TO
SHIFT AROUND FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE
OF THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER OUR AREA BEFORE
CONSOLIDATING SOME JUST TO OUR EAST TOWARD EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
CONSOLIDATE SOME MORE OFF OF OUR COAST. THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVERALL
SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE CLOSED LOW
OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO NEAR OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES TOWARD
DAYBREAK. AS THIS OCCURS, LARGE SCALE LIFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW
SHOULD ORGANIZE AND AREA OF RAIN. THIS LOOKS TO GENERALLY BE ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS A RESULT, LIKELY POPS ARE CARRIED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY LATE WITH THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
VALUES ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES.

WHILE ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN AREAS AS AT LEAST SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD BE
PRESENT, THE CHC APPEARS TO BE RATHER LOW AND THEREFORE IT WAS NOT
CARRIED ATTM. THE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING RAIN AREA HAS THE SIGNATURE
OF WHAT COULD BE THE START OF A PIVOT REGION ACROSS AT LEAST A
PORTION OF OUR AREA STARTING NEAR DAYBREAK. THIS WOULD BE DUE TO THE
CLOSED LOW MOVING OVERHEAD AND THE STRONG SHORT WAVE PIVOTING UP
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES SOME MORE OFFSHORE.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE UTILIZED MAINLY AN EVEN NAM/GFS MOS
BLEND. WHILE THE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR MOST, A NORTHERLY WIND
SHOULD START TO INCREASE SOME MAINLY LATE AS THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE
STARTS TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TO OUR EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB: A LARGE AND VERTICALLY DEEP CLOSED LOW ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO START THE PERIOD WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY.
A POTENTIALLY STRONG SHORT WAVE IS SLATED TO MOVE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA SATURDAY THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA SUNDAY THEN TO BE FOLLOWED
BY TEMPORARY RIDGING NEXT MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVG TEMPS FOR OCTOBER WERE ABOUT 2 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE 20TH AND DIFFICULT TO BELIEVE THIS MONTH
CAN NOW AVERAGE NORMAL OR BELOW. DAILY AVERAGES WILL B A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MINIMUM TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE
NORMAL AND MAXIMUMS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY
BEFORE WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/21 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...THE 00Z/21 GFS MOS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN THEREAFTER (FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD) THE 0502Z/21
WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE. THE 00Z/21 NCEP GUIDANCE MAXIMUM TEMPS MAY BE
SIGNIFICANTLY TOO WARM WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY AND NEXT SUNDAY. THE
WED/THU 00Z/21 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED DOWN WITH THE 00Z/21
ECMWF TEMPS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COULD BE EVEN COOLER THAN THE
330 AM FCST ISSUANCE INDICATED.

PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 21Z/20
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY AND THEREAFTER THE
00Z/21 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES BELOW...

WED-THU...PERIODS OF SHOWERS IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WITH  UNSTABLE
MID LVLS..EVEN SMALL POTENTIAL OF THUNDER NNJ WHERE SWI IS SUB ZERO
AT TIMES. A TROWAL CURLS WESTWARD AROUND THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF
THE DEEP CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. RAIN SHOULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES
WEDNESDAY ALONG THE COAST AND THEN POSSIBLY THURSDAY IN NNJ NEAR
THE AXIS OF THE 850 MB WIND SHIFT (850 MB VORTICITY AXIS) FROM NE
TO NW AND COINCIDENT WITH THE TROWAL.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THU NIGHT-FRIDAY...AS THE LOW ALOFT MOVES AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST
THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN OUR
AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE PREDOMINANT.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE SINCE TIMING OF THE IMPROVEMENT IS UNCERTAIN.

THIS WEEKEND...A SHORT WAVE WITH A 12 HR HFC OF OVER 120 METERS
PASSES THRU NYS AND NEW ENGLAND SAT AND SAT NIGHT. 850 TEMPS IN
ITS WAKE COOL 6C ON THE ECMWF FOR NEXT SUNDAY. THE SHORT WAVE
IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THEREFORE,
WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY RAIN.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE...JUST A MATTER OF INTENSITY OF THE SHORT
WAVE DIVING SEWD TOWARD THE NE USA SAT EVENING AND THE RESULTANT
COOLER 850MB TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.

NEXT MONDAY...A MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST SHOULD BUILD TOWARD
OUR REGION WHEN THE NICEST WEATHER OF THIS 6 DAY EXTENDED PERIOD
SHOULD OCCUR.  CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE FOR A DAY 7 FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MOSTLY VFR. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND THE AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVERHEAD BEFORE STARTING TO CONSOLIDATE SOME
JUST TO OUR EAST TOWARD EVENING. WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS CAN OCCUR
FOR A TIME WITH SHOWERS, THERE IS SOME LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE
TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW-TOPPED
THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER THIS LOOKS TO BE
ISOLATED IF IT WERE TO DEVELOP. A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND WILL SHIFT
TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY, HOWEVER
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR CEILINGS OVERALL. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES WITH SOME SHOWERS. A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF
RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP ESPECIALLY LATE, WHERE SOME MVFR CEILINGS
SHOULD START TO DEVELOP. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE MVFR CEILINGS. THE
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST NEAR 5 KNOTS,
BUT INCREASE SOME TOWARD DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN VFR CIGS AND
MVFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS. POTENTIAL BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS KABE...KTTN AND KACY. NORTH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20 KT
WEDNESDAY AND 25 TO 30 KT THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

SATURDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVERHEAD WILL START TO
CONSOLIDATE SOME OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT A SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND TURNING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TODAY THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST
DURING TONIGHT. GIVEN THE NEARBY LOCATION OF THE ORGANIZING SURFACE
LOW, THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. AFTER SOME
SURGE IN THE SEAS OFFSHORE EARLIER, THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NORTHERLY WINDS MAY
START TO INCREASE THOUGH TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MIDWEEK...A GALE WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR MOST OF OUR WATERS...FOR
OCNL GUSTS AROUND 35 KT WEDNESDAY AFTN POSSIBLY INTO MIDDAY
THURSDAY. ONLY THE UPPER PART OF DELAWARE BAY IS WITHOUT A GALE
WATCH AND THERE WE ISSUED AN SCA.

FUTURE FORECASTS WILL DETERMINE WHETHER THE GALE WATCH IS A BIT
TOO ROBUST AND WE`LL NEED TO SETTLE FOR A STRONG SCA. FOR NOW...BE
PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF GALES. AT THIS TIME...AM 60 PERCENT
CONFIDENT THAT AT LEAST THE S NJ AND DE COASTAL WATERS WILL VERIFY
A GALE BY THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE: A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE.


THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. SCA LIKELY. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
15-20 KT. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE






000
FXUS61 KLWX 211355
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
955 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 13Z...1010MB SFC LOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT STRETCHING OVER WRN PA AND ERN OHIO. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN IS
MOVING EWD THROUGH CENTRAL WV...AND MAY IMPACT THE ERN WV
PANHANDLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO WRN PA
AND WV THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. AS IT DOES...SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND HRRR/WRF MODELS...ANY PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...THEN SPREADING EWD TO THE METRO AREAS LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. AIRMASS WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY...WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. SURFACE TEMPS
SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE 60S...AND MAY TOUCH 70 ALONG AND EAST
OF I-95. AIR ALOFT WILL BE VERY COOL DUE TO THE UPPER LOW...WHICH
WILL HELP INCREASE OVERALL INSTABILITY IN SPITE OF MARGINAL
SURFACE DEW POINTS. MODIFIED 12Z KIAD SOUNDING YIELDS SBCAPE
BETWEEN 400-500 J/KG...ENOUGH FOR A FEW POTENTIAL ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

POPS GENERALLY DECREASE SLOWLY TONIGHT WEST TO EAST (EAST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT WITH UPSLOPE RAIN CONTINUING) AS THE UPR LOW CENTER
SHIFTS TO THE DELMARVA. MIN TEMPS MAINLY UPR 40S INLAND UNDER THE
COLD CORE LOW (UPR 30S IN THE ALLEGHENIES AND LOW 50S NEAR SHORE).

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MERELY DRIFTS EAST FROM THE DELMARVA
COAST. POPS PERSIST IN THE ALLEGHENIES FOR UPSLOPE AND EAST OF
I-95 FROM WRAP AROUND PRECIP. GUSTY NWLY FLOW FROM THE NOW CUTOFF
LOW. EXPECT GUSTS 35 TO 40 MPH...PARTICULARLY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BLUSTERY WX LOOKS TO BE IN STORE WED NGT AND THU...ESPECIALLY IN
THE ERN PART OF THE FCST AREA. LOW PRES GOES VERTICALLY STACKED
OFF THE NJ CST W/ HIGH PRES BUILDING OVR OH/KY. THIS WL CREATE A
STRONG PRES GRAD AND BRZY/WINDY CONDS. ISOLD RW WL BE PSBL AS
WELL..AGN IN THE ERN PART OF THE AREA. LOW TEMPS IN THE 40S.

SKIES SHOULD BE CLRG DURG THU AS THE LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS TOWARDS
LONG ISLAND BUT SUSPECT IT WL STILL BE BRZY GIVEN THE PRES GRAD.
GRTR SUNSHINE SHOULD ALSO HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE LOWER LVLS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AND BRING WIND TO THE SFC. HIGH TEMPS IN THE U50S TO LM60S.

AFTR THU WX SHOULD GET BETTER AND BETTER. HIGH PRES REPLACES THE
DEPARTED LOW ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD FRI THRU THE WKND...AND INTO
THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WK. EACH DAY SHOULD BE A LTL WARMER THAN
THE ONE B4...STARTING W/ THE LM60S FRI TO THE LM70S MON. LOWS IN
THE LM40S EVERYWHERE XCPT THE COOLER HIGHLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR PREVAILS INTO THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
LOW. LIKELY RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE TO REFINE TIMING OF ANY PRECIPITATION AND
DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS. SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST TONIGHT AS THE LOW
CROSSES THE AREA. STRONG NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30
KT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.

CLDY WED NGT BUT CIGS XPCTD TO BE VFR. BRZY NW WINDS XPCTD WED NGT
AND THU. VFR/NO PROBS FRI AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
FLOW BECOMING WLY LATE THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER THIS EVENING OVER
THE BAY. NWLY FLOW INCREASES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS AT LEAST
30 KT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. GALES POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW LINGERS OFF THE DELMARVA.

SCA WL LKLY BE ISSUED FOR WED NGT AND THU. WE`LL HV TO KEEP OUR
EYES OUT FOR THE PSBLTY OF GUSTS REACHING GALE LVLS.

THE WKND IS LOOKING QUITE GOOD FOR MARINE ACTIVITIES - SUNNY
SKIES...PLSNT TEMPS...LGT WINDS. WATER TEMPS STILL IN LM60S.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES HAVE DROPPED TO JUST OVER ONE HALF FOOT AT SENSITIVE
LOCATIONS. COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
UPDATES...KCS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 211355
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
955 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 13Z...1010MB SFC LOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT STRETCHING OVER WRN PA AND ERN OHIO. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN IS
MOVING EWD THROUGH CENTRAL WV...AND MAY IMPACT THE ERN WV
PANHANDLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO WRN PA
AND WV THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. AS IT DOES...SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND HRRR/WRF MODELS...ANY PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...THEN SPREADING EWD TO THE METRO AREAS LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. AIRMASS WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY...WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. SURFACE TEMPS
SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE 60S...AND MAY TOUCH 70 ALONG AND EAST
OF I-95. AIR ALOFT WILL BE VERY COOL DUE TO THE UPPER LOW...WHICH
WILL HELP INCREASE OVERALL INSTABILITY IN SPITE OF MARGINAL
SURFACE DEW POINTS. MODIFIED 12Z KIAD SOUNDING YIELDS SBCAPE
BETWEEN 400-500 J/KG...ENOUGH FOR A FEW POTENTIAL ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

POPS GENERALLY DECREASE SLOWLY TONIGHT WEST TO EAST (EAST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT WITH UPSLOPE RAIN CONTINUING) AS THE UPR LOW CENTER
SHIFTS TO THE DELMARVA. MIN TEMPS MAINLY UPR 40S INLAND UNDER THE
COLD CORE LOW (UPR 30S IN THE ALLEGHENIES AND LOW 50S NEAR SHORE).

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MERELY DRIFTS EAST FROM THE DELMARVA
COAST. POPS PERSIST IN THE ALLEGHENIES FOR UPSLOPE AND EAST OF
I-95 FROM WRAP AROUND PRECIP. GUSTY NWLY FLOW FROM THE NOW CUTOFF
LOW. EXPECT GUSTS 35 TO 40 MPH...PARTICULARLY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BLUSTERY WX LOOKS TO BE IN STORE WED NGT AND THU...ESPECIALLY IN
THE ERN PART OF THE FCST AREA. LOW PRES GOES VERTICALLY STACKED
OFF THE NJ CST W/ HIGH PRES BUILDING OVR OH/KY. THIS WL CREATE A
STRONG PRES GRAD AND BRZY/WINDY CONDS. ISOLD RW WL BE PSBL AS
WELL..AGN IN THE ERN PART OF THE AREA. LOW TEMPS IN THE 40S.

SKIES SHOULD BE CLRG DURG THU AS THE LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS TOWARDS
LONG ISLAND BUT SUSPECT IT WL STILL BE BRZY GIVEN THE PRES GRAD.
GRTR SUNSHINE SHOULD ALSO HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE LOWER LVLS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AND BRING WIND TO THE SFC. HIGH TEMPS IN THE U50S TO LM60S.

AFTR THU WX SHOULD GET BETTER AND BETTER. HIGH PRES REPLACES THE
DEPARTED LOW ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD FRI THRU THE WKND...AND INTO
THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WK. EACH DAY SHOULD BE A LTL WARMER THAN
THE ONE B4...STARTING W/ THE LM60S FRI TO THE LM70S MON. LOWS IN
THE LM40S EVERYWHERE XCPT THE COOLER HIGHLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR PREVAILS INTO THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
LOW. LIKELY RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE TO REFINE TIMING OF ANY PRECIPITATION AND
DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS. SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST TONIGHT AS THE LOW
CROSSES THE AREA. STRONG NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30
KT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.

CLDY WED NGT BUT CIGS XPCTD TO BE VFR. BRZY NW WINDS XPCTD WED NGT
AND THU. VFR/NO PROBS FRI AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
FLOW BECOMING WLY LATE THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER THIS EVENING OVER
THE BAY. NWLY FLOW INCREASES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS AT LEAST
30 KT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. GALES POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW LINGERS OFF THE DELMARVA.

SCA WL LKLY BE ISSUED FOR WED NGT AND THU. WE`LL HV TO KEEP OUR
EYES OUT FOR THE PSBLTY OF GUSTS REACHING GALE LVLS.

THE WKND IS LOOKING QUITE GOOD FOR MARINE ACTIVITIES - SUNNY
SKIES...PLSNT TEMPS...LGT WINDS. WATER TEMPS STILL IN LM60S.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES HAVE DROPPED TO JUST OVER ONE HALF FOOT AT SENSITIVE
LOCATIONS. COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
UPDATES...KCS







    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities