Home > Products > State Listing > Maryland Data
Latest:
 AFDPBZ |  AFDLWX |  AFDPHI |  AFDAKQ |
  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 202329
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
729 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WITH THE SUPPORT OF A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL PROVIDE CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION
REMAINS FURTHER WEST...THUS LOW POPS WERE MAINTAINED LATE TONIGHT.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN BY SUNDAY. INSUFFICIENT CAPE DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER...LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING...AND POOR MID LEVEL LAPS
RATES WILL OVERALL LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND LONGEVITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR LOW TOPPED
THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT WHILE LOW
LEVEL LAPS RATES STEEPEN AHEAD AND ALONG OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG
SHEAR...SHOWERS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS PREDICTED TO CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...A STRONG INVERSION WILL SET
UP AS NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AND THEREFORE LAKE AND TERRAIN
ENHANCED SHOWERS/CLOUDS WILL PURSUE EARLY MONDAY MORNING MAINLY
NORTH OF I-76...BUT SINCE THE INVERSION LOWERS AND REMAINS
SHALLOW...STRATOCU DECK WILL LIKELY SUPERSEDE SHOWERS MUCH OF MONDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING DRIER
CONDITIONS TO HELP WEAKEN THE INVERSION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GENL AGRMNT WITH DEPICTIONS OF
DRY WEATHER FOR THE UPR OH REGION INTO THE WEEKEND AS BROAD RIDGE
IS BUILT OVR MUCH OF THE CONUS. DESPITE RECENT ECMWF DETERMINISTIC
TRENDS OF AN AMPLIFYING WEAKNESS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...SUB
CLIMO/DRY POPS WERE THUS MAINTAINED. TEMPS UNDR THIS PTN WOULD
MODERATE TO AT LEAST 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVGS...FORECAST FOR WHICH
WAS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GRADUAL CONDITION DETERIORATION TO MVFR/LCL IFR CAN BE EXPECTED
LATE TNGT AND INTO SUNDAY AS A CDFNT APCHS FM THE W. ST DVLPMNT IN
THE WARM...MOIST FLOW UNDR THE INVERSION IS ANTICIPATED AS IS
ELEVATED SHWR DVLPMNT TWD MRNG. THE BTR CHC FOR IFR IS EXPECTED IN
THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHWRS AFTR DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NGT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN OFF THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO SPPRT MVFR STRATOCU
THRU MONDAY. THEREAFTER...GENL VFR IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE
TARNISHED BY PERIDAWN FOG AND LCL ST.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

24/15




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 202329
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
729 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WITH THE SUPPORT OF A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL PROVIDE CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION
REMAINS FURTHER WEST...THUS LOW POPS WERE MAINTAINED LATE TONIGHT.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN BY SUNDAY. INSUFFICIENT CAPE DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER...LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING...AND POOR MID LEVEL LAPS
RATES WILL OVERALL LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND LONGEVITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR LOW TOPPED
THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT WHILE LOW
LEVEL LAPS RATES STEEPEN AHEAD AND ALONG OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG
SHEAR...SHOWERS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS PREDICTED TO CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...A STRONG INVERSION WILL SET
UP AS NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AND THEREFORE LAKE AND TERRAIN
ENHANCED SHOWERS/CLOUDS WILL PURSUE EARLY MONDAY MORNING MAINLY
NORTH OF I-76...BUT SINCE THE INVERSION LOWERS AND REMAINS
SHALLOW...STRATOCU DECK WILL LIKELY SUPERSEDE SHOWERS MUCH OF MONDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING DRIER
CONDITIONS TO HELP WEAKEN THE INVERSION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GENL AGRMNT WITH DEPICTIONS OF
DRY WEATHER FOR THE UPR OH REGION INTO THE WEEKEND AS BROAD RIDGE
IS BUILT OVR MUCH OF THE CONUS. DESPITE RECENT ECMWF DETERMINISTIC
TRENDS OF AN AMPLIFYING WEAKNESS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...SUB
CLIMO/DRY POPS WERE THUS MAINTAINED. TEMPS UNDR THIS PTN WOULD
MODERATE TO AT LEAST 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVGS...FORECAST FOR WHICH
WAS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GRADUAL CONDITION DETERIORATION TO MVFR/LCL IFR CAN BE EXPECTED
LATE TNGT AND INTO SUNDAY AS A CDFNT APCHS FM THE W. ST DVLPMNT IN
THE WARM...MOIST FLOW UNDR THE INVERSION IS ANTICIPATED AS IS
ELEVATED SHWR DVLPMNT TWD MRNG. THE BTR CHC FOR IFR IS EXPECTED IN
THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHWRS AFTR DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NGT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN OFF THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO SPPRT MVFR STRATOCU
THRU MONDAY. THEREAFTER...GENL VFR IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE
TARNISHED BY PERIDAWN FOG AND LCL ST.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

24/15




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 202329
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
729 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WITH THE SUPPORT OF A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL PROVIDE CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION
REMAINS FURTHER WEST...THUS LOW POPS WERE MAINTAINED LATE TONIGHT.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN BY SUNDAY. INSUFFICIENT CAPE DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER...LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING...AND POOR MID LEVEL LAPS
RATES WILL OVERALL LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND LONGEVITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR LOW TOPPED
THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT WHILE LOW
LEVEL LAPS RATES STEEPEN AHEAD AND ALONG OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG
SHEAR...SHOWERS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS PREDICTED TO CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...A STRONG INVERSION WILL SET
UP AS NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AND THEREFORE LAKE AND TERRAIN
ENHANCED SHOWERS/CLOUDS WILL PURSUE EARLY MONDAY MORNING MAINLY
NORTH OF I-76...BUT SINCE THE INVERSION LOWERS AND REMAINS
SHALLOW...STRATOCU DECK WILL LIKELY SUPERSEDE SHOWERS MUCH OF MONDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING DRIER
CONDITIONS TO HELP WEAKEN THE INVERSION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GENL AGRMNT WITH DEPICTIONS OF
DRY WEATHER FOR THE UPR OH REGION INTO THE WEEKEND AS BROAD RIDGE
IS BUILT OVR MUCH OF THE CONUS. DESPITE RECENT ECMWF DETERMINISTIC
TRENDS OF AN AMPLIFYING WEAKNESS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...SUB
CLIMO/DRY POPS WERE THUS MAINTAINED. TEMPS UNDR THIS PTN WOULD
MODERATE TO AT LEAST 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVGS...FORECAST FOR WHICH
WAS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GRADUAL CONDITION DETERIORATION TO MVFR/LCL IFR CAN BE EXPECTED
LATE TNGT AND INTO SUNDAY AS A CDFNT APCHS FM THE W. ST DVLPMNT IN
THE WARM...MOIST FLOW UNDR THE INVERSION IS ANTICIPATED AS IS
ELEVATED SHWR DVLPMNT TWD MRNG. THE BTR CHC FOR IFR IS EXPECTED IN
THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHWRS AFTR DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NGT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN OFF THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO SPPRT MVFR STRATOCU
THRU MONDAY. THEREAFTER...GENL VFR IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE
TARNISHED BY PERIDAWN FOG AND LCL ST.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

24/15




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 202329
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
729 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WITH THE SUPPORT OF A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL PROVIDE CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION
REMAINS FURTHER WEST...THUS LOW POPS WERE MAINTAINED LATE TONIGHT.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN BY SUNDAY. INSUFFICIENT CAPE DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER...LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING...AND POOR MID LEVEL LAPS
RATES WILL OVERALL LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND LONGEVITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR LOW TOPPED
THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT WHILE LOW
LEVEL LAPS RATES STEEPEN AHEAD AND ALONG OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG
SHEAR...SHOWERS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS PREDICTED TO CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...A STRONG INVERSION WILL SET
UP AS NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AND THEREFORE LAKE AND TERRAIN
ENHANCED SHOWERS/CLOUDS WILL PURSUE EARLY MONDAY MORNING MAINLY
NORTH OF I-76...BUT SINCE THE INVERSION LOWERS AND REMAINS
SHALLOW...STRATOCU DECK WILL LIKELY SUPERSEDE SHOWERS MUCH OF MONDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING DRIER
CONDITIONS TO HELP WEAKEN THE INVERSION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GENL AGRMNT WITH DEPICTIONS OF
DRY WEATHER FOR THE UPR OH REGION INTO THE WEEKEND AS BROAD RIDGE
IS BUILT OVR MUCH OF THE CONUS. DESPITE RECENT ECMWF DETERMINISTIC
TRENDS OF AN AMPLIFYING WEAKNESS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...SUB
CLIMO/DRY POPS WERE THUS MAINTAINED. TEMPS UNDR THIS PTN WOULD
MODERATE TO AT LEAST 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVGS...FORECAST FOR WHICH
WAS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GRADUAL CONDITION DETERIORATION TO MVFR/LCL IFR CAN BE EXPECTED
LATE TNGT AND INTO SUNDAY AS A CDFNT APCHS FM THE W. ST DVLPMNT IN
THE WARM...MOIST FLOW UNDR THE INVERSION IS ANTICIPATED AS IS
ELEVATED SHWR DVLPMNT TWD MRNG. THE BTR CHC FOR IFR IS EXPECTED IN
THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHWRS AFTR DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NGT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN OFF THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO SPPRT MVFR STRATOCU
THRU MONDAY. THEREAFTER...GENL VFR IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE
TARNISHED BY PERIDAWN FOG AND LCL ST.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

24/15



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KLWX 202148 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
548 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST BY CAPE HATTERAS SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE IN MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HEADLINE UPDATE. SEE TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING SECTION. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE MD BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC RVR FROM SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION...
AS OF 18Z...SFC RIDGE IS DRAPED WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE CWA WITH
THE AXIS OVER DC. AN ASSOCIATED ONSHORE FLOW (WITH A BIT OF A BAY
BREEZE) WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EVENING. A TROUGH IN ADVANCE OF A LOW
OFF THE GEORGIA COAST EXTENDS NORTHEAST OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC
COAST WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENT. THIS
ACTIVITY COULD APPROACH MD WATERS...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LOWER
ST MARYS AND EAST. LOW/MID CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE
EAST...PERHAPS REACHING AS FAR WEST AS I-95.

OTHERWISE...CLEAR TONIGHT WITH VALLEY AND PIEDMONT FOG. GUIDANCE
IS SUGGESTING SOME FOG FOR THE METRO AREAS TOO...BUT THE
CLOUD/CLEAR LINE WILL DETERMINE THAT. MIN TEMPS MID TO UPR 50S
WEST OF BALT-WASH...LOW TO MID 60S FOR THE COASTAL LOWLANDS...NEAR
70F URBAN AND NEAR SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OFFSHORE AND THEN A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES DURING THE DAY AND CROSSES LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. FIVE PERCENT RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND FROM SPC ROUGHLY
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN TIMING DURING PEAK
HEATING. MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S (PERHAPS UPR 80S EAST OF I-95
IF MORNING CLOUDS CLEAR SOON ENOUGH) AND LIFTED INDICES FROM THE
GFS AROUND -2.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY WITH NWLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH.
MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 70S. CLOUDS CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY...SUNNY BY
THE AFTERNOON.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING
OVER THE AREA. MIN TEMPS COULD BE INTO THE MID 30S IN THE
ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS WHERE FROST IS POSSIBLE. MENTIONED THIS IN THE
HWO. OTHERWISE...MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 40S...MID 50S NEAR SHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEEP-LAYER RIDGING WILL ENTRENCH ITSELF OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES BEGINNING TUESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A
SEASONABLY COOL AND INITIALLY DRIER AIRMASS. BUT AS THE HIGH
MIGRATES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK
AN ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS WHICH WILL LEAD TO GRADUALLY INCREASING
MOISTURE. THIS COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN BY THE
END OF THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS FROM
THE ATLANTIC.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK...BUT COULD REBOUND TO AROUND NORMAL LEVELS BY NEXT
WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AMIDST ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE COAST FROM GEORGIA. A COLD FRONT CROSSES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS BEST EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAVE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

NW FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...COULD GUST AROUND 20 KT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED VFR.

VFR LIKELY TUE-WED NIGHT...WINDS GENERALLY NE 10 KTS OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW FROM SFC HIGH RIDGE OVER THE AREA WITH A BAY
BREEZE THAT WILL ENDS THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF
GEORGIA WILL STRENGTHEN AND LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLING
COAST TONIGHT AND MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY. THE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE LOW PASSES MIDDAY SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE. NWLY FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 15 KT OR SO. SCA GUSTS TO 20 KT
CURRENTLY LOOK TO WAIT UNTIL MONDAY MORNING...THOUGH THEY COULD
ARRIVE WITH THE COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THAT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS...WITH SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO PULL AWAY AND THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING WELL TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTIES
UNTIL 7 PM. WILL MISS THE MARK AT BALTIMORE/FT MCHENRY...THOUGH
THEIR LEVELS ARE ELEVATED WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE EVE`S HIGH
TIDE. DEPARTURES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...UP TO 1.5 FT ABOVE
NORMAL...SO MORE COUNTIES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE ADVISORY
FOR THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ014.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...BAJ/DFH
MARINE...BAJ/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...GMS/BAJ









000
FXUS61 KLWX 202148 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
548 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST BY CAPE HATTERAS SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE IN MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HEADLINE UPDATE. SEE TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING SECTION. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE MD BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC RVR FROM SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION...
AS OF 18Z...SFC RIDGE IS DRAPED WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE CWA WITH
THE AXIS OVER DC. AN ASSOCIATED ONSHORE FLOW (WITH A BIT OF A BAY
BREEZE) WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EVENING. A TROUGH IN ADVANCE OF A LOW
OFF THE GEORGIA COAST EXTENDS NORTHEAST OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC
COAST WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENT. THIS
ACTIVITY COULD APPROACH MD WATERS...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LOWER
ST MARYS AND EAST. LOW/MID CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE
EAST...PERHAPS REACHING AS FAR WEST AS I-95.

OTHERWISE...CLEAR TONIGHT WITH VALLEY AND PIEDMONT FOG. GUIDANCE
IS SUGGESTING SOME FOG FOR THE METRO AREAS TOO...BUT THE
CLOUD/CLEAR LINE WILL DETERMINE THAT. MIN TEMPS MID TO UPR 50S
WEST OF BALT-WASH...LOW TO MID 60S FOR THE COASTAL LOWLANDS...NEAR
70F URBAN AND NEAR SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OFFSHORE AND THEN A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES DURING THE DAY AND CROSSES LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. FIVE PERCENT RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND FROM SPC ROUGHLY
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN TIMING DURING PEAK
HEATING. MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S (PERHAPS UPR 80S EAST OF I-95
IF MORNING CLOUDS CLEAR SOON ENOUGH) AND LIFTED INDICES FROM THE
GFS AROUND -2.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY WITH NWLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH.
MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 70S. CLOUDS CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY...SUNNY BY
THE AFTERNOON.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING
OVER THE AREA. MIN TEMPS COULD BE INTO THE MID 30S IN THE
ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS WHERE FROST IS POSSIBLE. MENTIONED THIS IN THE
HWO. OTHERWISE...MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 40S...MID 50S NEAR SHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEEP-LAYER RIDGING WILL ENTRENCH ITSELF OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES BEGINNING TUESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A
SEASONABLY COOL AND INITIALLY DRIER AIRMASS. BUT AS THE HIGH
MIGRATES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK
AN ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS WHICH WILL LEAD TO GRADUALLY INCREASING
MOISTURE. THIS COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN BY THE
END OF THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS FROM
THE ATLANTIC.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK...BUT COULD REBOUND TO AROUND NORMAL LEVELS BY NEXT
WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AMIDST ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE COAST FROM GEORGIA. A COLD FRONT CROSSES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS BEST EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAVE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

NW FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...COULD GUST AROUND 20 KT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED VFR.

VFR LIKELY TUE-WED NIGHT...WINDS GENERALLY NE 10 KTS OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW FROM SFC HIGH RIDGE OVER THE AREA WITH A BAY
BREEZE THAT WILL ENDS THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF
GEORGIA WILL STRENGTHEN AND LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLING
COAST TONIGHT AND MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY. THE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE LOW PASSES MIDDAY SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE. NWLY FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 15 KT OR SO. SCA GUSTS TO 20 KT
CURRENTLY LOOK TO WAIT UNTIL MONDAY MORNING...THOUGH THEY COULD
ARRIVE WITH THE COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THAT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS...WITH SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO PULL AWAY AND THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING WELL TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTIES
UNTIL 7 PM. WILL MISS THE MARK AT BALTIMORE/FT MCHENRY...THOUGH
THEIR LEVELS ARE ELEVATED WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE EVE`S HIGH
TIDE. DEPARTURES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...UP TO 1.5 FT ABOVE
NORMAL...SO MORE COUNTIES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE ADVISORY
FOR THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ014.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...BAJ/DFH
MARINE...BAJ/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...GMS/BAJ








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 202105
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
505 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE SUPPORT OF A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL PROVIDE
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION REMAINS
FURTHER WEST...THUS LOW POPS WERE MAINTAINED LATE TONIGHT.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN BY SUNDAY. INSUFFICIENT CAPE DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER...LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING...AND POOR MID LEVEL LAPS
RATES WILL OVERALL LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND LONGEVITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR LOW TOPPED
THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT WHILE LOW
LEVEL LAPS RATES STEEPEN AHEAD AND ALONG OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG
SHEAR...SHOWERS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS PREDICTED TO CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...A STRONG INVERSION WILL SET
UP AS NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AND THEREFORE LAKE AND TERRAIN
ENHANCED SHOWERS/CLOUDS WILL PURSUE MONDAY MAINLY NORTH OF I-76.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING DRIER
CONDITIONS TO HELP WEAKEN THE INVERSION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GENL AGRMNT WITH DEPICTIONS OF
DRY WEATHER FOR THE UPR OH REGION INTO THE WEEKEND AS BROAD RIDGE
IS BUILT OVR MUCH OF THE CONUS. DESPITE RECENT ECMWF DETERMINISTIC
TRENDS OF AN AMPLIFYING WEAKNESS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...SUB
CLIMO/DRY POPS WERE THUS MAINTAINED. TEMPS UNDR THIS PTN WOULD
MODERATE TO AT LEAST 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVGS...FORECAST FOR WHICH
WAS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GRADUAL CONDITION DETERIORATION TO MVFR/LCL IFR CAN BE EXPECTED
LATE TNGT AND INTO SUNDAY AS A CDFNT APCHS FM THE W. ST DVLPMNT IN
THE WARM...MOIST FLOW UNDR THE INVERSION IS ANTICIPATED AS IS
ELEVATED SHWR DVLPMNT TWD MRNG. THE BTR CHC FOR IFR IS EXPECTED IN
THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHWRS AFTR DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NGT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN OFF THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO SPPRT MVFR STRATOCU
THRU MONDAY. THEREAFTER...GENL VFR IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE
TARNISHED BY PERIDAWN FOG AND LCL ST.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 202105
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
505 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE SUPPORT OF A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL PROVIDE
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION REMAINS
FURTHER WEST...THUS LOW POPS WERE MAINTAINED LATE TONIGHT.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN BY SUNDAY. INSUFFICIENT CAPE DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER...LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING...AND POOR MID LEVEL LAPS
RATES WILL OVERALL LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND LONGEVITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR LOW TOPPED
THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT WHILE LOW
LEVEL LAPS RATES STEEPEN AHEAD AND ALONG OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG
SHEAR...SHOWERS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS PREDICTED TO CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...A STRONG INVERSION WILL SET
UP AS NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AND THEREFORE LAKE AND TERRAIN
ENHANCED SHOWERS/CLOUDS WILL PURSUE MONDAY MAINLY NORTH OF I-76.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING DRIER
CONDITIONS TO HELP WEAKEN THE INVERSION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GENL AGRMNT WITH DEPICTIONS OF
DRY WEATHER FOR THE UPR OH REGION INTO THE WEEKEND AS BROAD RIDGE
IS BUILT OVR MUCH OF THE CONUS. DESPITE RECENT ECMWF DETERMINISTIC
TRENDS OF AN AMPLIFYING WEAKNESS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...SUB
CLIMO/DRY POPS WERE THUS MAINTAINED. TEMPS UNDR THIS PTN WOULD
MODERATE TO AT LEAST 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVGS...FORECAST FOR WHICH
WAS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GRADUAL CONDITION DETERIORATION TO MVFR/LCL IFR CAN BE EXPECTED
LATE TNGT AND INTO SUNDAY AS A CDFNT APCHS FM THE W. ST DVLPMNT IN
THE WARM...MOIST FLOW UNDR THE INVERSION IS ANTICIPATED AS IS
ELEVATED SHWR DVLPMNT TWD MRNG. THE BTR CHC FOR IFR IS EXPECTED IN
THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHWRS AFTR DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NGT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN OFF THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO SPPRT MVFR STRATOCU
THRU MONDAY. THEREAFTER...GENL VFR IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE
TARNISHED BY PERIDAWN FOG AND LCL ST.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






  [top]

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 202001
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
401 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LIFTS NORTH ALONG...THEN
OFF...THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE...AND COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS...FOR MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST RIDGES SWWD INTO
THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS RESULTING IN A VERY NICE
EARLY FALL DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ALONG AS WEST OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY. TEMPS ARE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT JUST OFF THE SE COAST
IS GENERATING CONSIDERABLE CLDS ACRS THE CNTRL/SRN DELMARVA...SE
VA AND NE NC. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALSO MOVED NWWD FROM THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND INTO OUR NE NC COUNTIES. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO DRIER AIR INLAND. THE LOW WILL MOVE NE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND BE EAST OF DELMARVA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE SIDED CLOSED TO THE 12Z GFS WITH REGARD TO WESTERN
EXTENT OF PRECIP AND SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS...AS NAM APPEARS TOO
AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING BOTH CLOUDS AND PRECIP NWWD. POP/WEATHER
FORECAST SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE...ALTHOUGH CHC POPS PUSHED
SOMEWHAT WWD INTO DELMARVA/SE VA AND A GOOD PART OF NE NC. LIKELY
POPS FORECAST BY MET GUIDANCE SEEM TOO HIGH...AND HAVE GONE CLOSER
TO...BUT STILL A BIT BELOW...MAV GUIDANCE. ANY PRECIP WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
SUNDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

MIN TEMPS TONIGHT CLOSE TO OR SLIGHT ABOVE THIS MORNINGS TEMPS
AWAY FROM THE BAY/OCEAN...WITH MANY AREAS AT OR A FEW DEGREES
BELOW 60. CLOSER TO THE BAY/OCEAN...CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIP SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT...AND
EXPECT IT AGAIN TONIGHT IN AREAS AWAY FROM THE WATER.

THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL WILL BE ON SUNDAY...WITH MANY
AREAS SEEING THE UPPER 80S...AND ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO MAKE INTO
THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. MODELS INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD
OF FRONT...SO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED. HAVE
INCREASED POPS SUNDAY EVENING IN THE PIEDMONT AREA TO 30%...MAINLY
IN DEFERENCE TO NAM12 PRECIP DEPICTION. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS SUNDAY EVENING...WITH SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST...BUT ANY PRECIP BEYOND 04Z EXPECTED TO
BE WIDELY SCATTERED. AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE
FA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE
REGION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...AND MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50. A
SUNNY PLEASANT DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE
STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE
OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR
NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF
BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR
MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN ENE WIND...WITH SPEEDS OF 8-20KT
ALONG THE COAST...AND 5-10KT INLAND. CONDS ARE GENERALLY VFR
ACROSS THE CWA BUT TAF SITES ALONG THE COAST...ORF/ECG/PHF...HAVE
SHOWN SOME TEMPO MVFR CIGS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMES IN OFF THE
WATER. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE TREND THRU THE AFTN/EVENING AS THE
LOW GRADUALLY MOVES UP THE COAST.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA OVER COASTAL SE VA/NE NC TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS OFF THE COAST. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC -SHRA AND/OR
-TSRA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND PREVAILS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HI PRES STRETCHES DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC CST TNGT AS LO PRES
PASSES OFFSHORE. AS FAR AS HEADLINES...SCA OVR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY
WILL CONTINUE THRU 10 PM DUE TO 4 FT WAVES. HIGH SEAS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE OVR THE CSTL WTRS DUE TO PROLONGED ERLY/NERLY FETCH. WILL
CONTINUE HEADLINES THERE INTO TOMORO...ENDING THEM FM N TO S THRU
THE DAY AS FLOW BCMS NLY. A COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS LATE SUN/ERLY
MON...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO STAY SUB-SCA POST FRNTAL DUE TO A
WEAK GRADIENT AND CAA. SECONDARY SURGE AND HI PRES BLDG N OF THE
AREA MON NGT MAY BRING WINDS JUST SHY OF 20 KT OVR THE BAY...BUT
WILL CAP AT AROUND 15 KT FOR NOW. FOR TUE THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK...ANOTHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED
WAVES AND SEAS AND SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...WRS
SHORT TERM...WRS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...AJZ/JEF
MARINE...MAS





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 202001
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
401 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LIFTS NORTH ALONG...THEN
OFF...THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE...AND COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS...FOR MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST RIDGES SWWD INTO
THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS RESULTING IN A VERY NICE
EARLY FALL DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ALONG AS WEST OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY. TEMPS ARE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT JUST OFF THE SE COAST
IS GENERATING CONSIDERABLE CLDS ACRS THE CNTRL/SRN DELMARVA...SE
VA AND NE NC. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALSO MOVED NWWD FROM THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND INTO OUR NE NC COUNTIES. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO DRIER AIR INLAND. THE LOW WILL MOVE NE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND BE EAST OF DELMARVA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE SIDED CLOSED TO THE 12Z GFS WITH REGARD TO WESTERN
EXTENT OF PRECIP AND SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS...AS NAM APPEARS TOO
AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING BOTH CLOUDS AND PRECIP NWWD. POP/WEATHER
FORECAST SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE...ALTHOUGH CHC POPS PUSHED
SOMEWHAT WWD INTO DELMARVA/SE VA AND A GOOD PART OF NE NC. LIKELY
POPS FORECAST BY MET GUIDANCE SEEM TOO HIGH...AND HAVE GONE CLOSER
TO...BUT STILL A BIT BELOW...MAV GUIDANCE. ANY PRECIP WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
SUNDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

MIN TEMPS TONIGHT CLOSE TO OR SLIGHT ABOVE THIS MORNINGS TEMPS
AWAY FROM THE BAY/OCEAN...WITH MANY AREAS AT OR A FEW DEGREES
BELOW 60. CLOSER TO THE BAY/OCEAN...CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIP SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT...AND
EXPECT IT AGAIN TONIGHT IN AREAS AWAY FROM THE WATER.

THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL WILL BE ON SUNDAY...WITH MANY
AREAS SEEING THE UPPER 80S...AND ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO MAKE INTO
THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. MODELS INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD
OF FRONT...SO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED. HAVE
INCREASED POPS SUNDAY EVENING IN THE PIEDMONT AREA TO 30%...MAINLY
IN DEFERENCE TO NAM12 PRECIP DEPICTION. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS SUNDAY EVENING...WITH SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST...BUT ANY PRECIP BEYOND 04Z EXPECTED TO
BE WIDELY SCATTERED. AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE
FA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE
REGION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...AND MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50. A
SUNNY PLEASANT DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE
STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE
OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR
NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF
BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR
MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN ENE WIND...WITH SPEEDS OF 8-20KT
ALONG THE COAST...AND 5-10KT INLAND. CONDS ARE GENERALLY VFR
ACROSS THE CWA BUT TAF SITES ALONG THE COAST...ORF/ECG/PHF...HAVE
SHOWN SOME TEMPO MVFR CIGS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMES IN OFF THE
WATER. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE TREND THRU THE AFTN/EVENING AS THE
LOW GRADUALLY MOVES UP THE COAST.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA OVER COASTAL SE VA/NE NC TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS OFF THE COAST. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC -SHRA AND/OR
-TSRA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND PREVAILS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HI PRES STRETCHES DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC CST TNGT AS LO PRES
PASSES OFFSHORE. AS FAR AS HEADLINES...SCA OVR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY
WILL CONTINUE THRU 10 PM DUE TO 4 FT WAVES. HIGH SEAS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE OVR THE CSTL WTRS DUE TO PROLONGED ERLY/NERLY FETCH. WILL
CONTINUE HEADLINES THERE INTO TOMORO...ENDING THEM FM N TO S THRU
THE DAY AS FLOW BCMS NLY. A COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS LATE SUN/ERLY
MON...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO STAY SUB-SCA POST FRNTAL DUE TO A
WEAK GRADIENT AND CAA. SECONDARY SURGE AND HI PRES BLDG N OF THE
AREA MON NGT MAY BRING WINDS JUST SHY OF 20 KT OVR THE BAY...BUT
WILL CAP AT AROUND 15 KT FOR NOW. FOR TUE THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK...ANOTHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED
WAVES AND SEAS AND SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...WRS
SHORT TERM...WRS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...AJZ/JEF
MARINE...MAS



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPHI 201938
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
338 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MOVE NORTHWARD UP
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WHILE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
MIDWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A WEAKENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND ALONG WITH THAT COMES THE HIGHER DEW
POINTS AND MODERATE TEMPERATURES. ANY PRECIPITATION TONIGHT WILL BE
LIMITED TO NJ AND ERN/SRN DELAWARE WHICH WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS. THE LOW WILL CREATE
AN ENHANCED WIND GRADIENT ACROSS THESE AREAS. POPS WILL BE A THE
CHC RANGE ACROSS THESE AREAS...AND IT WOULD BE HIGHER...BUT THE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NE OFFSHORE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE
MILDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S NORTH AND
LOW/MID 60S ACROSS OTHER AREAS. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NJ AND
THE DELMARVA LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS SHOWN MOVING UP ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY WHILE A
SECOND LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND HEADS TOWARD THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY. A COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO THE SECOND LOW WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL OCCUR WITH
THE FIRST LOW...NEAR THE SHORE AREAS EARLY...THEN WITH THE COLD
FRONT OVER THE NRN/WRN AREAS LATE. IT WILL LIKELY BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY
START TO THE DAY AND SOME MORNING FOG MAY BE SLOW TO BURN OFF.
LIMITED SUN WILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S IN MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EARLY...THEN FAVOR A
SRLY/SWRLY DIRECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF FROPA OCCURRING DURING
THE EVENING WEST OF I-95 AND OVERNIGHT FARTHER TO THE EAST. EXPECT
TO SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH THE FROPA AS FORCING FOR
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND JET STREAK TRAVERSES THE
AREA. THE TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING AS IT APPROACHES THE EASTERN
SEABOARD, BUT AMPLIFICATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR TOO LATE FOR DEEPER
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO OR ATLANTIC TO REACH OUR AREA IN
TIME. THE FORECAST PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT FROM 12Z GFS/NAM AND 09Z
SREF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS IS CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK LAPSE RATES AND
MEAGER INSTABILITY. DO NOT EXPECT PRECIP TO BE PARTICULARLY HEAVY OR
WIDESPREAD UNDER THIS SETUP.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE MIDWEST STATES. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER
IN NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR ON MONDAY IN A TIMELY FASHION FOR
THE FIRST DAY OF AUTUMN. MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM NEAR 60F IN THE
POCONOS TO MID 70S IN THE DELMARVA/SOUTHERN NJ. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN TIER OF THE CWA.
MODELS OFTEN UNDER DO THE POST-FRONTAL STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT DURING
SIGNIFICANT CAA REGIMES.

A QUIET WX PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THIS TIME. A CUTOFF LOW
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE WAS SOME HINT AT THIS LOW DRIFTING NORTHWARD
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THEN POSSIBLY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER, PREDICTABILITY IN THIS
SETUP IS LOWER THAN NORMAL DUE TO A LACK OF STEERING FLOW UNDERNEATH
THE RIDGE. ASIDE FROM THE 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF, DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH
SUPPORT FROM NWP GUIDANCE TO WARRANT A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TOWARD A
MORE PESSIMISTIC (I.E., CLOUDY AND RAINY) FORECAST FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK. CONFINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE DELMARVA THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE, A DRY FORECAST IS ADVERTISED THRU THE END OF THE
LONG-TERM PERIOD.

NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE WEEK
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ACROSS THE TERMINALS FOR THE MOST PART THIS
AFTERNOON. WHEN THE DIURNAL CU KICKED IN...A FEW SHORT PERIODS OF
MVFR WERE OBSERVED...AND THIS COULD STILL HAPPEN AGAIN EARLY...BUT
FOR THE MOST PART VFR SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. A FEW WIDELY
SCT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE DELMARVA OR SE NJ LATER...BUT
THEY WERE NOT PUT IN THE TAFS WITH CONFIDENCE IN THIS RATHER LOW.

TONIGHT...THE CONTINUING ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND WITH A BLEND
OF THE PREVIOUS TAFS AND THE PRESENT GUIDANCE...WE HAVE FAVORED A
SLOW LOWERING OF CIGS AND VSBYS IN FOG OVERNIGHT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
OR PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR CLOSE TO THE SHORE. THIS WAS PLACED IN A
TEMPO GROUP FOR KACY. SUNDAY...SLOW RECOVERY BACK TO VFR WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND A GRADUAL SWITCH IN WINDS TO SW. IT IS
LIKELY THAT MOST SITES WILL BE BACK TO VFR 14Z-16Z.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT MOVES THRU THE TERMINALS. SCT SHRA ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WIND
SHIFT FROM SW TO NW WILL OCCUR WITH THE FROPA.

MONDAY...NW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE SURGE. STRATOCU FAVORED IN
THIS SETUP, WHICH MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD MVFR CIGS FOR PHILLY
TERMINALS NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA FLAG OUT PRESENTLY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE EXTENDED
IN TIME...SINCE THE APPROACHING LOW WILL NOT DO ANYTHING TO REDUCE
THE POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED SEAS. WE WILL ADD THE NRN-MOST COASTAL
ZONE TO THE MIX THIS EVENING...WHEN THE HIGHER SEAS WILL (PROBABLY)
ARRIVE THERE. THE SCA FLAG WILL CONTINUE THRU NOON SUNDAY. BY THEN
THE BEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL HAVE WEAKENED
ACROSS THE WATERS. SCT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE WATERS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE
NW. POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT GENERALLY EXPECTED BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS SEAS INCREASE TO 4-6 FT IN THE ATLANTIC
JUST OFF THE DE/NJ COAST DURING THIS TIME. OPTED TO HOLD OF ON
ISSUING A SCA WITH ANOTHER SCA IN EFFECT THRU NOON SUNDAY AND A LULL
IN SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR 6-12 HOURS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ATTM.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK FOR ENHANCED RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS
THE DECENT ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ450.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 201938
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
338 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MOVE NORTHWARD UP
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WHILE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
MIDWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A WEAKENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND ALONG WITH THAT COMES THE HIGHER DEW
POINTS AND MODERATE TEMPERATURES. ANY PRECIPITATION TONIGHT WILL BE
LIMITED TO NJ AND ERN/SRN DELAWARE WHICH WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS. THE LOW WILL CREATE
AN ENHANCED WIND GRADIENT ACROSS THESE AREAS. POPS WILL BE A THE
CHC RANGE ACROSS THESE AREAS...AND IT WOULD BE HIGHER...BUT THE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NE OFFSHORE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE
MILDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S NORTH AND
LOW/MID 60S ACROSS OTHER AREAS. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NJ AND
THE DELMARVA LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS SHOWN MOVING UP ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY WHILE A
SECOND LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND HEADS TOWARD THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY. A COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO THE SECOND LOW WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL OCCUR WITH
THE FIRST LOW...NEAR THE SHORE AREAS EARLY...THEN WITH THE COLD
FRONT OVER THE NRN/WRN AREAS LATE. IT WILL LIKELY BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY
START TO THE DAY AND SOME MORNING FOG MAY BE SLOW TO BURN OFF.
LIMITED SUN WILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S IN MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EARLY...THEN FAVOR A
SRLY/SWRLY DIRECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF FROPA OCCURRING DURING
THE EVENING WEST OF I-95 AND OVERNIGHT FARTHER TO THE EAST. EXPECT
TO SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH THE FROPA AS FORCING FOR
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND JET STREAK TRAVERSES THE
AREA. THE TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING AS IT APPROACHES THE EASTERN
SEABOARD, BUT AMPLIFICATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR TOO LATE FOR DEEPER
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO OR ATLANTIC TO REACH OUR AREA IN
TIME. THE FORECAST PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT FROM 12Z GFS/NAM AND 09Z
SREF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS IS CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK LAPSE RATES AND
MEAGER INSTABILITY. DO NOT EXPECT PRECIP TO BE PARTICULARLY HEAVY OR
WIDESPREAD UNDER THIS SETUP.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE MIDWEST STATES. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER
IN NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR ON MONDAY IN A TIMELY FASHION FOR
THE FIRST DAY OF AUTUMN. MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM NEAR 60F IN THE
POCONOS TO MID 70S IN THE DELMARVA/SOUTHERN NJ. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN TIER OF THE CWA.
MODELS OFTEN UNDER DO THE POST-FRONTAL STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT DURING
SIGNIFICANT CAA REGIMES.

A QUIET WX PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THIS TIME. A CUTOFF LOW
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE WAS SOME HINT AT THIS LOW DRIFTING NORTHWARD
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THEN POSSIBLY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER, PREDICTABILITY IN THIS
SETUP IS LOWER THAN NORMAL DUE TO A LACK OF STEERING FLOW UNDERNEATH
THE RIDGE. ASIDE FROM THE 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF, DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH
SUPPORT FROM NWP GUIDANCE TO WARRANT A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TOWARD A
MORE PESSIMISTIC (I.E., CLOUDY AND RAINY) FORECAST FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK. CONFINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE DELMARVA THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE, A DRY FORECAST IS ADVERTISED THRU THE END OF THE
LONG-TERM PERIOD.

NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE WEEK
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ACROSS THE TERMINALS FOR THE MOST PART THIS
AFTERNOON. WHEN THE DIURNAL CU KICKED IN...A FEW SHORT PERIODS OF
MVFR WERE OBSERVED...AND THIS COULD STILL HAPPEN AGAIN EARLY...BUT
FOR THE MOST PART VFR SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. A FEW WIDELY
SCT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE DELMARVA OR SE NJ LATER...BUT
THEY WERE NOT PUT IN THE TAFS WITH CONFIDENCE IN THIS RATHER LOW.

TONIGHT...THE CONTINUING ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND WITH A BLEND
OF THE PREVIOUS TAFS AND THE PRESENT GUIDANCE...WE HAVE FAVORED A
SLOW LOWERING OF CIGS AND VSBYS IN FOG OVERNIGHT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
OR PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR CLOSE TO THE SHORE. THIS WAS PLACED IN A
TEMPO GROUP FOR KACY. SUNDAY...SLOW RECOVERY BACK TO VFR WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND A GRADUAL SWITCH IN WINDS TO SW. IT IS
LIKELY THAT MOST SITES WILL BE BACK TO VFR 14Z-16Z.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT MOVES THRU THE TERMINALS. SCT SHRA ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WIND
SHIFT FROM SW TO NW WILL OCCUR WITH THE FROPA.

MONDAY...NW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE SURGE. STRATOCU FAVORED IN
THIS SETUP, WHICH MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD MVFR CIGS FOR PHILLY
TERMINALS NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA FLAG OUT PRESENTLY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE EXTENDED
IN TIME...SINCE THE APPROACHING LOW WILL NOT DO ANYTHING TO REDUCE
THE POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED SEAS. WE WILL ADD THE NRN-MOST COASTAL
ZONE TO THE MIX THIS EVENING...WHEN THE HIGHER SEAS WILL (PROBABLY)
ARRIVE THERE. THE SCA FLAG WILL CONTINUE THRU NOON SUNDAY. BY THEN
THE BEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL HAVE WEAKENED
ACROSS THE WATERS. SCT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE WATERS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE
NW. POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT GENERALLY EXPECTED BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS SEAS INCREASE TO 4-6 FT IN THE ATLANTIC
JUST OFF THE DE/NJ COAST DURING THIS TIME. OPTED TO HOLD OF ON
ISSUING A SCA WITH ANOTHER SCA IN EFFECT THRU NOON SUNDAY AND A LULL
IN SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR 6-12 HOURS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ATTM.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK FOR ENHANCED RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS
THE DECENT ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ450.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201917
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
317 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LIFTS NORTH ALONG...THEN
OFF...THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE...AND COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS...FOR MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST RIDGES SWWD INTO
THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS RESULTING IN A VERY NICE
EARLY FALL DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ALONG AS WEST OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY. TEMPS ARE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT JUST OFF THE SE COAST
IS GENERATING CONSIDERABLE CLDS ACRS THE CNTRL/SRN DELMARVA...SE
VA AND NE NC. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALSO MOVED NWWD FROM THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND INTO OUR NE NC COUNTIES. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO DRIER AIR INLAND. THE LOW WILL MOVE NE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND BE EAST OF DELMARVA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE SIDED CLOSED TO THE 12Z GFS WITH REGARD TO WESTERN
EXTENT OF PRECIP AND SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS...AS NAM APPEARS TOO
AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING BOTH CLOUDS AND PRECIP NWWD. POP/WEATHER
FORECAST SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE...ALTHOUGH CHC POPS PUSHED
SOMEWHAT WWD INTO DELMARVA/SE VA AND A GOOD PART OF NE NC. LIKELY
POPS FORECAST BY MET GUIDANCE SEEM TOO HIGH...AND HAVE GONE CLOSER
TO...BUT STILL A BIT BELOW...MAV GUIDANCE. ANY PRECIP WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
SUNDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

MIN TEMPS TONIGHT CLOSE TO OR SLIGHT ABOVE THIS MORNINGS TEMPS
AWAY FROM THE BAY/OCEAN...WITH MANY AREAS AT OR A FEW DEGREES
BELOW 60. CLOSER TO THE BAY/OCEAN...CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIP SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT...AND
EXPECT IT AGAIN TONIGHT IN AREAS AWAY FROM THE WATER.

THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL WILL BE ON SUNDAY...WITH MANY
AREAS SEEING THE UPPER 80S...AND ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO MAKE INTO
THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. MODELS INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD
OF FRONT...SO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED. HAVE
INCREASED POPS SUNDAY EVENING IN THE PIEDMONT AREA TO 30%...MAINLY
IN DEFERENCE TO NAM12 PRECIP DEPICTION. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS SUNDAY EVENING...WITH SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST...BUT ANY PRECIP BEYOND 04Z EXPECTED TO
BE WIDELY SCATTERED. AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE
FA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE
REGION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...AND MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50. A
SUNNY PLEASANT DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND UNEVENTFUL WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS MEANS A CONTINUATION OF
NE TO E WINDS WHICH MAY HAVE SOME MARINE IMPLICATIONS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK.

A SURFACE TROUGH MAY DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK. MODELS INDICATE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH SOME
OF IT SPREADING INTO OUR AREA. SLGT CHC SHOWERS ARE IN THE FCST ERN
VA/NE NC LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN ENE WIND...WITH SPEEDS OF 8-20KT
ALONG THE COAST...AND 5-10KT INLAND. CONDS ARE GENERALLY VFR
ACROSS THE CWA BUT TAF SITES ALONG THE COAST...ORF/ECG/PHF...HAVE
SHOWN SOME TEMPO MVFR CIGS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMES IN OFF THE
WATER. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE TREND THRU THE AFTN/EVENING AS THE
LOW GRADUALLY MOVES UP THE COAST.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA OVER COASTAL SE VA/NE NC TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS OFF THE COAST. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC -SHRA AND/OR
-TSRA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND PREVAILS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...A SCA WAS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW
POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. A SCA IS
ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND
THROUGH 4PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.
OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE SCA WINDS ~20KT ENE HAVE CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND. THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON. WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FT WILL OCCUR IN THE LOWER BAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A 10-15KT ENE WIND. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE ONSHORE
WIND WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 5-6FT OUT NEAR 20NM. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN ALLOWING THE
WIND TO SHIFT TO N-NE AND DIMINISH TO AOB 10KT. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
~5FT AND HENCE THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE RACES OFF TO THE NE SUNDAY...WITH THE WIND EVENTUALLY
BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A NNE WIND SHOULD
CONTINUE EARLY SUNDAY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS...SO THE SCA FOR
THIS PARTICULAR ZONE HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...WRS
SHORT TERM...WRS
LONG TERM...MAS/JAO
AVIATION...AJZ/JEF
MARINE...MAS/JEF






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201917
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
317 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LIFTS NORTH ALONG...THEN
OFF...THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE...AND COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS...FOR MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST RIDGES SWWD INTO
THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS RESULTING IN A VERY NICE
EARLY FALL DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ALONG AS WEST OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY. TEMPS ARE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT JUST OFF THE SE COAST
IS GENERATING CONSIDERABLE CLDS ACRS THE CNTRL/SRN DELMARVA...SE
VA AND NE NC. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALSO MOVED NWWD FROM THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND INTO OUR NE NC COUNTIES. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO DRIER AIR INLAND. THE LOW WILL MOVE NE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND BE EAST OF DELMARVA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE SIDED CLOSED TO THE 12Z GFS WITH REGARD TO WESTERN
EXTENT OF PRECIP AND SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS...AS NAM APPEARS TOO
AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING BOTH CLOUDS AND PRECIP NWWD. POP/WEATHER
FORECAST SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE...ALTHOUGH CHC POPS PUSHED
SOMEWHAT WWD INTO DELMARVA/SE VA AND A GOOD PART OF NE NC. LIKELY
POPS FORECAST BY MET GUIDANCE SEEM TOO HIGH...AND HAVE GONE CLOSER
TO...BUT STILL A BIT BELOW...MAV GUIDANCE. ANY PRECIP WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
SUNDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

MIN TEMPS TONIGHT CLOSE TO OR SLIGHT ABOVE THIS MORNINGS TEMPS
AWAY FROM THE BAY/OCEAN...WITH MANY AREAS AT OR A FEW DEGREES
BELOW 60. CLOSER TO THE BAY/OCEAN...CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIP SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT...AND
EXPECT IT AGAIN TONIGHT IN AREAS AWAY FROM THE WATER.

THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL WILL BE ON SUNDAY...WITH MANY
AREAS SEEING THE UPPER 80S...AND ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO MAKE INTO
THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. MODELS INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD
OF FRONT...SO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED. HAVE
INCREASED POPS SUNDAY EVENING IN THE PIEDMONT AREA TO 30%...MAINLY
IN DEFERENCE TO NAM12 PRECIP DEPICTION. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS SUNDAY EVENING...WITH SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST...BUT ANY PRECIP BEYOND 04Z EXPECTED TO
BE WIDELY SCATTERED. AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE
FA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE
REGION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...AND MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50. A
SUNNY PLEASANT DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND UNEVENTFUL WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS MEANS A CONTINUATION OF
NE TO E WINDS WHICH MAY HAVE SOME MARINE IMPLICATIONS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK.

A SURFACE TROUGH MAY DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK. MODELS INDICATE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH SOME
OF IT SPREADING INTO OUR AREA. SLGT CHC SHOWERS ARE IN THE FCST ERN
VA/NE NC LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN ENE WIND...WITH SPEEDS OF 8-20KT
ALONG THE COAST...AND 5-10KT INLAND. CONDS ARE GENERALLY VFR
ACROSS THE CWA BUT TAF SITES ALONG THE COAST...ORF/ECG/PHF...HAVE
SHOWN SOME TEMPO MVFR CIGS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMES IN OFF THE
WATER. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE TREND THRU THE AFTN/EVENING AS THE
LOW GRADUALLY MOVES UP THE COAST.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA OVER COASTAL SE VA/NE NC TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS OFF THE COAST. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC -SHRA AND/OR
-TSRA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND PREVAILS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...A SCA WAS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW
POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. A SCA IS
ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND
THROUGH 4PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.
OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE SCA WINDS ~20KT ENE HAVE CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND. THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON. WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FT WILL OCCUR IN THE LOWER BAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A 10-15KT ENE WIND. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE ONSHORE
WIND WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 5-6FT OUT NEAR 20NM. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN ALLOWING THE
WIND TO SHIFT TO N-NE AND DIMINISH TO AOB 10KT. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
~5FT AND HENCE THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE RACES OFF TO THE NE SUNDAY...WITH THE WIND EVENTUALLY
BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A NNE WIND SHOULD
CONTINUE EARLY SUNDAY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS...SO THE SCA FOR
THIS PARTICULAR ZONE HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...WRS
SHORT TERM...WRS
LONG TERM...MAS/JAO
AVIATION...AJZ/JEF
MARINE...MAS/JEF






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201917
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
317 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LIFTS NORTH ALONG...THEN
OFF...THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE...AND COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS...FOR MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST RIDGES SWWD INTO
THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS RESULTING IN A VERY NICE
EARLY FALL DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ALONG AS WEST OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY. TEMPS ARE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT JUST OFF THE SE COAST
IS GENERATING CONSIDERABLE CLDS ACRS THE CNTRL/SRN DELMARVA...SE
VA AND NE NC. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALSO MOVED NWWD FROM THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND INTO OUR NE NC COUNTIES. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO DRIER AIR INLAND. THE LOW WILL MOVE NE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND BE EAST OF DELMARVA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE SIDED CLOSED TO THE 12Z GFS WITH REGARD TO WESTERN
EXTENT OF PRECIP AND SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS...AS NAM APPEARS TOO
AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING BOTH CLOUDS AND PRECIP NWWD. POP/WEATHER
FORECAST SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE...ALTHOUGH CHC POPS PUSHED
SOMEWHAT WWD INTO DELMARVA/SE VA AND A GOOD PART OF NE NC. LIKELY
POPS FORECAST BY MET GUIDANCE SEEM TOO HIGH...AND HAVE GONE CLOSER
TO...BUT STILL A BIT BELOW...MAV GUIDANCE. ANY PRECIP WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
SUNDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

MIN TEMPS TONIGHT CLOSE TO OR SLIGHT ABOVE THIS MORNINGS TEMPS
AWAY FROM THE BAY/OCEAN...WITH MANY AREAS AT OR A FEW DEGREES
BELOW 60. CLOSER TO THE BAY/OCEAN...CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIP SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT...AND
EXPECT IT AGAIN TONIGHT IN AREAS AWAY FROM THE WATER.

THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL WILL BE ON SUNDAY...WITH MANY
AREAS SEEING THE UPPER 80S...AND ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO MAKE INTO
THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. MODELS INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD
OF FRONT...SO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED. HAVE
INCREASED POPS SUNDAY EVENING IN THE PIEDMONT AREA TO 30%...MAINLY
IN DEFERENCE TO NAM12 PRECIP DEPICTION. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS SUNDAY EVENING...WITH SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST...BUT ANY PRECIP BEYOND 04Z EXPECTED TO
BE WIDELY SCATTERED. AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE
FA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE
REGION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...AND MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50. A
SUNNY PLEASANT DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND UNEVENTFUL WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS MEANS A CONTINUATION OF
NE TO E WINDS WHICH MAY HAVE SOME MARINE IMPLICATIONS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK.

A SURFACE TROUGH MAY DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK. MODELS INDICATE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH SOME
OF IT SPREADING INTO OUR AREA. SLGT CHC SHOWERS ARE IN THE FCST ERN
VA/NE NC LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN ENE WIND...WITH SPEEDS OF 8-20KT
ALONG THE COAST...AND 5-10KT INLAND. CONDS ARE GENERALLY VFR
ACROSS THE CWA BUT TAF SITES ALONG THE COAST...ORF/ECG/PHF...HAVE
SHOWN SOME TEMPO MVFR CIGS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMES IN OFF THE
WATER. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE TREND THRU THE AFTN/EVENING AS THE
LOW GRADUALLY MOVES UP THE COAST.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA OVER COASTAL SE VA/NE NC TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS OFF THE COAST. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC -SHRA AND/OR
-TSRA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND PREVAILS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...A SCA WAS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW
POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. A SCA IS
ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND
THROUGH 4PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.
OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE SCA WINDS ~20KT ENE HAVE CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND. THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON. WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FT WILL OCCUR IN THE LOWER BAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A 10-15KT ENE WIND. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE ONSHORE
WIND WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 5-6FT OUT NEAR 20NM. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN ALLOWING THE
WIND TO SHIFT TO N-NE AND DIMINISH TO AOB 10KT. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
~5FT AND HENCE THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE RACES OFF TO THE NE SUNDAY...WITH THE WIND EVENTUALLY
BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A NNE WIND SHOULD
CONTINUE EARLY SUNDAY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS...SO THE SCA FOR
THIS PARTICULAR ZONE HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...WRS
SHORT TERM...WRS
LONG TERM...MAS/JAO
AVIATION...AJZ/JEF
MARINE...MAS/JEF






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201917
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
317 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LIFTS NORTH ALONG...THEN
OFF...THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE...AND COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS...FOR MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST RIDGES SWWD INTO
THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS RESULTING IN A VERY NICE
EARLY FALL DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ALONG AS WEST OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY. TEMPS ARE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT JUST OFF THE SE COAST
IS GENERATING CONSIDERABLE CLDS ACRS THE CNTRL/SRN DELMARVA...SE
VA AND NE NC. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALSO MOVED NWWD FROM THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND INTO OUR NE NC COUNTIES. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO DRIER AIR INLAND. THE LOW WILL MOVE NE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND BE EAST OF DELMARVA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE SIDED CLOSED TO THE 12Z GFS WITH REGARD TO WESTERN
EXTENT OF PRECIP AND SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS...AS NAM APPEARS TOO
AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING BOTH CLOUDS AND PRECIP NWWD. POP/WEATHER
FORECAST SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE...ALTHOUGH CHC POPS PUSHED
SOMEWHAT WWD INTO DELMARVA/SE VA AND A GOOD PART OF NE NC. LIKELY
POPS FORECAST BY MET GUIDANCE SEEM TOO HIGH...AND HAVE GONE CLOSER
TO...BUT STILL A BIT BELOW...MAV GUIDANCE. ANY PRECIP WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
SUNDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

MIN TEMPS TONIGHT CLOSE TO OR SLIGHT ABOVE THIS MORNINGS TEMPS
AWAY FROM THE BAY/OCEAN...WITH MANY AREAS AT OR A FEW DEGREES
BELOW 60. CLOSER TO THE BAY/OCEAN...CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIP SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT...AND
EXPECT IT AGAIN TONIGHT IN AREAS AWAY FROM THE WATER.

THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL WILL BE ON SUNDAY...WITH MANY
AREAS SEEING THE UPPER 80S...AND ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO MAKE INTO
THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. MODELS INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD
OF FRONT...SO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED. HAVE
INCREASED POPS SUNDAY EVENING IN THE PIEDMONT AREA TO 30%...MAINLY
IN DEFERENCE TO NAM12 PRECIP DEPICTION. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS SUNDAY EVENING...WITH SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST...BUT ANY PRECIP BEYOND 04Z EXPECTED TO
BE WIDELY SCATTERED. AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE
FA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE
REGION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...AND MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50. A
SUNNY PLEASANT DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND UNEVENTFUL WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS MEANS A CONTINUATION OF
NE TO E WINDS WHICH MAY HAVE SOME MARINE IMPLICATIONS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK.

A SURFACE TROUGH MAY DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK. MODELS INDICATE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH SOME
OF IT SPREADING INTO OUR AREA. SLGT CHC SHOWERS ARE IN THE FCST ERN
VA/NE NC LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN ENE WIND...WITH SPEEDS OF 8-20KT
ALONG THE COAST...AND 5-10KT INLAND. CONDS ARE GENERALLY VFR
ACROSS THE CWA BUT TAF SITES ALONG THE COAST...ORF/ECG/PHF...HAVE
SHOWN SOME TEMPO MVFR CIGS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMES IN OFF THE
WATER. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE TREND THRU THE AFTN/EVENING AS THE
LOW GRADUALLY MOVES UP THE COAST.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA OVER COASTAL SE VA/NE NC TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS OFF THE COAST. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC -SHRA AND/OR
-TSRA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND PREVAILS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...A SCA WAS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW
POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. A SCA IS
ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND
THROUGH 4PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.
OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE SCA WINDS ~20KT ENE HAVE CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND. THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON. WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FT WILL OCCUR IN THE LOWER BAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A 10-15KT ENE WIND. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE ONSHORE
WIND WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 5-6FT OUT NEAR 20NM. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN ALLOWING THE
WIND TO SHIFT TO N-NE AND DIMINISH TO AOB 10KT. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
~5FT AND HENCE THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE RACES OFF TO THE NE SUNDAY...WITH THE WIND EVENTUALLY
BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A NNE WIND SHOULD
CONTINUE EARLY SUNDAY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS...SO THE SCA FOR
THIS PARTICULAR ZONE HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...WRS
SHORT TERM...WRS
LONG TERM...MAS/JAO
AVIATION...AJZ/JEF
MARINE...MAS/JEF






000
FXUS61 KLWX 201858
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
258 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST BY CAPE HATTERAS SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE IN MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 18Z...SFC RIDGE IS DRAPED WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE
AXIS OVER DC. AN ASSOCIATED ONSHORE FLOW (WITH A BIT OF A BAY
BREEZE) WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EVENING. A TROUGH IN ADVANCE OF A LOW
OFF THE GEORGIA COAST EXTENDS NORTHEAST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENT. THIS ACTIVITY
COULD APPROACH MD WATERS...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LOWER ST MARYS
AND EAST. LOW/MID CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE EAST...PERHAPS
REACHING AS FAR WEST AS I-95.

OTHERWISE...CLEAR TONIGHT WITH VALLEY AND PIEDMONT FOG. GUIDANCE
IS SUGGESTING SOME FOG FOR THE METRO AREAS TOO...BUT THE
CLOUD/CLEAR LINE WILL DETERMINE THAT. MIN TEMPS MID TO UPR 50S
WEST OF BALT-WASH...LOW TO MID 60S FOR THE COASTAL LOWLANDS...NEAR
70F URBAN AND NEAR SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OFFSHORE AND THEN A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES DURING THE DAY AND CROSSES LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. FIVE PERCENT RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND FROM SPC ROUGHLY
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN TIMING DURING PEAK
HEATING. MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S (PERHAPS UPR 80S EAST OF I-95
IF MORNING CLOUDS CLEAR SOON ENOUGH) AND LIFTED INDICES FROM THE
GFS AROUND -2.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY WITH NWLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH.
MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 70S. CLOUDS CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY...SUNNY BY
THE AFTERNOON.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING
OVER THE AREA. MIN TEMPS COULD BE INTO THE MID 30S IN THE
ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS WHERE FROST IS POSSIBLE. MENTIONED THIS IN THE
HWO. OTHERWISE...MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 40S...MID 50S NEAR SHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DEEP-LAYER RIDGING WILL ENTRENCH ITSELF OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES BEGINNING TUESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A
SEASONABLY COOL AND INITIALLY DRIER AIRMASS. BUT AS THE HIGH
MIGRATES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK
AN ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS WHICH WILL LEAD TO GRADUALLY INCREASING
MOISTURE. THIS COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN BY THE
END OF THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS FROM
THE ATLANTIC.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK...BUT COULD REBOUND TO AROUND NORMAL LEVELS BY NEXT
WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AMIDST ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE COAST FROM GEORGIA. A COLD FRONT CROSSES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS BEST EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAVE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

NW FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...COULD GUST AROUND 20 KT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED VFR.

VFR LIKELY TUE-WED NIGHT...WINDS GENERALLY NE 10 KTS OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW FROM SFC HIGH RIDGE OVER THE AREA WITH A BAY
BREEZE THAT WILL ENDS THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF
GEORGIA WILL STRENGTHEN AND LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLING
COAST TONIGHT AND MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY. THE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE LOW PASSES MIDDAY SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE. NWLY FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 15 KT OR SO. SCA GUSTS TO 20 KT
CURRENTLY LOOK TO WAIT UNTIL MONDAY MORNING...THOUGH THEY COULD
ARRIVE WITH THE COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THAT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS...WITH SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO PULL AWAY AND THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING WELL TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR CALVERT AND ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTIES UNTIL
6PM (CALVERT CAN BE CANCELED EARLIER) FOR ONGOING MINOR FLOODING.
THE DEPARTURE AT BALTIMORE/FT MCHENRY HAS REMAINED AT 1.4FT. A
1.6FT DEPARTURE WOULD BE REQUIRED TO HIT THE MINOR THRESHOLD OF
3.0FT.

DEPARTURES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...UP TO 1.5 FT ABOVE NORMAL...SO
MORE COUNTIES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE ADVISORY FOR THE HIGH
TIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ014-
     018.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...BAJ/DFH
MARINE...BAJ/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BAJ






000
FXUS61 KLWX 201858
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
258 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST BY CAPE HATTERAS SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE IN MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 18Z...SFC RIDGE IS DRAPED WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE
AXIS OVER DC. AN ASSOCIATED ONSHORE FLOW (WITH A BIT OF A BAY
BREEZE) WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EVENING. A TROUGH IN ADVANCE OF A LOW
OFF THE GEORGIA COAST EXTENDS NORTHEAST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENT. THIS ACTIVITY
COULD APPROACH MD WATERS...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LOWER ST MARYS
AND EAST. LOW/MID CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE EAST...PERHAPS
REACHING AS FAR WEST AS I-95.

OTHERWISE...CLEAR TONIGHT WITH VALLEY AND PIEDMONT FOG. GUIDANCE
IS SUGGESTING SOME FOG FOR THE METRO AREAS TOO...BUT THE
CLOUD/CLEAR LINE WILL DETERMINE THAT. MIN TEMPS MID TO UPR 50S
WEST OF BALT-WASH...LOW TO MID 60S FOR THE COASTAL LOWLANDS...NEAR
70F URBAN AND NEAR SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OFFSHORE AND THEN A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES DURING THE DAY AND CROSSES LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. FIVE PERCENT RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND FROM SPC ROUGHLY
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN TIMING DURING PEAK
HEATING. MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S (PERHAPS UPR 80S EAST OF I-95
IF MORNING CLOUDS CLEAR SOON ENOUGH) AND LIFTED INDICES FROM THE
GFS AROUND -2.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY WITH NWLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH.
MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 70S. CLOUDS CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY...SUNNY BY
THE AFTERNOON.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING
OVER THE AREA. MIN TEMPS COULD BE INTO THE MID 30S IN THE
ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS WHERE FROST IS POSSIBLE. MENTIONED THIS IN THE
HWO. OTHERWISE...MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 40S...MID 50S NEAR SHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DEEP-LAYER RIDGING WILL ENTRENCH ITSELF OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES BEGINNING TUESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A
SEASONABLY COOL AND INITIALLY DRIER AIRMASS. BUT AS THE HIGH
MIGRATES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK
AN ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS WHICH WILL LEAD TO GRADUALLY INCREASING
MOISTURE. THIS COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN BY THE
END OF THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS FROM
THE ATLANTIC.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK...BUT COULD REBOUND TO AROUND NORMAL LEVELS BY NEXT
WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AMIDST ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE COAST FROM GEORGIA. A COLD FRONT CROSSES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS BEST EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAVE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

NW FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...COULD GUST AROUND 20 KT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED VFR.

VFR LIKELY TUE-WED NIGHT...WINDS GENERALLY NE 10 KTS OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW FROM SFC HIGH RIDGE OVER THE AREA WITH A BAY
BREEZE THAT WILL ENDS THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF
GEORGIA WILL STRENGTHEN AND LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLING
COAST TONIGHT AND MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY. THE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE LOW PASSES MIDDAY SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE. NWLY FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 15 KT OR SO. SCA GUSTS TO 20 KT
CURRENTLY LOOK TO WAIT UNTIL MONDAY MORNING...THOUGH THEY COULD
ARRIVE WITH THE COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THAT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS...WITH SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO PULL AWAY AND THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING WELL TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR CALVERT AND ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTIES UNTIL
6PM (CALVERT CAN BE CANCELED EARLIER) FOR ONGOING MINOR FLOODING.
THE DEPARTURE AT BALTIMORE/FT MCHENRY HAS REMAINED AT 1.4FT. A
1.6FT DEPARTURE WOULD BE REQUIRED TO HIT THE MINOR THRESHOLD OF
3.0FT.

DEPARTURES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...UP TO 1.5 FT ABOVE NORMAL...SO
MORE COUNTIES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE ADVISORY FOR THE HIGH
TIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ014-
     018.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...BAJ/DFH
MARINE...BAJ/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BAJ







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201827
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
227 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES SUNDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER WEATHER MONDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
TAKES CONTROL...YIELDING A WARMING TREND BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY
WEEKS END.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PORTRAYS INVASION OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL PROVIDE A NEAR
CANOPY FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NAM12
HAS DONE A GOOD JOB IDENTIFY AREAS OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BETWEEN
3-6KFT THAT SHOWS UP NICELY ON VISIBLE SATELLITE AS PATCHES OF
BKN-OVC CU FROM ZZV TO CLARION. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS DRIER
ADVECTS IN FROM THE SW.

OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH THE ONLY RAIN PRODUCING
WEATHER SYSTEM OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST. 12Z NCEP CHAIN AND 9Z SREF
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON COLD FRONT TIMING DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS WEST OF I-79 THEN EARLY AFTERNOON POINTS EAST. HIGH
RES CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST TWO WAVES OF PCPN. THE
FIRST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THEN A BREAK BEFORE YET ANOTHER
ROUND ARRIVES ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT. DO NOT FORESEE
AN ALL DAY RAIN AND GIVEN THE FACT THE LINE OF SHOWERS WILL BE
BROKEN...SOME LOCATIONS MAY NOT SEE MEASURABLE PCPN AT ALL.

THE CYCLONE DEEPENS AS IT CROSSES SOUTHERN CANADA THUS PRESSURE
GRADIENT PICKS UP CREATING A HEALTHY WIND FIELD. WITH BAROCLINIC
ZONE CROSSING EASTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON...THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR A GUSTY SHOWER OR STORM. LAPSE RATES ARE BELOW
5CKM-1 AND MOISTURE DEPTH IS CONFINED BELOW 10KFT... SO ITS HARD
TO SEE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. THAT SAID...WILL
MAINTAIN HWO MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS FOR PA...NRN WV...AND WRN
MD...BUT THREAT IS GONE FOR OHIO GIVEN EARLIER FROPA.

POPS WERE INCREASED CLOSER TO LAKE ERIE WHERE BETTER UPPER LEVEL
FORCING EXISTS PER PROXIMITY TO CYCLONE...OTHERWISE CHC TO LKLY
POPS WILL COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG CAA ENSUES SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWEEPS
THROUGH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S...BUT WITH H8 TEMPS 12-13C COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO DAYTIME
HIGHS WON/T CLIMB MUCH MONDAY...AS 50S WILL BE THE BEST WE CAN DO. ANY
MEASURABLE QPF WILL RESIDE EAST OF THE NRN WV PANHANDLE SUN NGT
WITH LKLY NUMBERS OVER FAR EASTERN AREAS. NW WINDS WILL CREATE
POTENTIAL FOR LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS AND CLOUDS MUCH OF MONDAY
NORTH OF I-76.

ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DRIES OUT THE COLUMN FROM WEST TO EAST MON
NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG EXISTS AS PLACEMENT OF HIGH
WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR CALM WINDS AND A CLEAR SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SUBSIDENCE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. H5 HEIGHTS CLIMB TO AROUND 588DM
AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. WITH ANTICYCLONES STACKED
ON TOP OF THEMSELVES...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD IS FORESEEN UNTIL
FRIDAY WHEN RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE ALLOWS MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TO ADVECT EASTWARD. H8 TEMPS REBOUND
QUICKLY TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR A WARMER AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES
RECOVER BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS. SW FLOW AND BETTER MIXING PROMOTE
EVEN WARMER AFTERNOONS THUR - SAT WITH LOW TO MID 70S COMMON SAVE
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERALL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WERE A
BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WPC...WHILE NIGHT TIME LOWS
BIAS CORRECTED ECMWF GRIDS ALONG WITH INHERITED FORECAST WERE
USED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR WEATHER HOLDS UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING WHEN A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CIGS WILL TEETER ON THE FRINGE OF
MVFR/VFR SUN MORNING...HOWEVER EXPECT MORE VFR THAN MVFR OUTSIDE
FKL AND DUJ. TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST. THE FIRST ARRIVES AHEAD OF THE FRONT MID SUN MORNING...WHILE
THE SECOND IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE IN THE
AFTERNOON. COULD NOT RULE OUT A VERY SHORT WINDOW OF IFR
VSBYS...BUT THE TEMPORAL WINDOW AND PROB IS TOO LOW FOR TERMINAL
FCST.

OUTLOOK.../18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A COLD
FRONT CROSSES. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 35 KTS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

98




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201827
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
227 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES SUNDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER WEATHER MONDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
TAKES CONTROL...YIELDING A WARMING TREND BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY
WEEKS END.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PORTRAYS INVASION OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL PROVIDE A NEAR
CANOPY FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NAM12
HAS DONE A GOOD JOB IDENTIFY AREAS OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BETWEEN
3-6KFT THAT SHOWS UP NICELY ON VISIBLE SATELLITE AS PATCHES OF
BKN-OVC CU FROM ZZV TO CLARION. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS DRIER
ADVECTS IN FROM THE SW.

OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH THE ONLY RAIN PRODUCING
WEATHER SYSTEM OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST. 12Z NCEP CHAIN AND 9Z SREF
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON COLD FRONT TIMING DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS WEST OF I-79 THEN EARLY AFTERNOON POINTS EAST. HIGH
RES CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST TWO WAVES OF PCPN. THE
FIRST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THEN A BREAK BEFORE YET ANOTHER
ROUND ARRIVES ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT. DO NOT FORESEE
AN ALL DAY RAIN AND GIVEN THE FACT THE LINE OF SHOWERS WILL BE
BROKEN...SOME LOCATIONS MAY NOT SEE MEASURABLE PCPN AT ALL.

THE CYCLONE DEEPENS AS IT CROSSES SOUTHERN CANADA THUS PRESSURE
GRADIENT PICKS UP CREATING A HEALTHY WIND FIELD. WITH BAROCLINIC
ZONE CROSSING EASTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON...THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR A GUSTY SHOWER OR STORM. LAPSE RATES ARE BELOW
5CKM-1 AND MOISTURE DEPTH IS CONFINED BELOW 10KFT... SO ITS HARD
TO SEE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. THAT SAID...WILL
MAINTAIN HWO MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS FOR PA...NRN WV...AND WRN
MD...BUT THREAT IS GONE FOR OHIO GIVEN EARLIER FROPA.

POPS WERE INCREASED CLOSER TO LAKE ERIE WHERE BETTER UPPER LEVEL
FORCING EXISTS PER PROXIMITY TO CYCLONE...OTHERWISE CHC TO LKLY
POPS WILL COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG CAA ENSUES SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWEEPS
THROUGH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S...BUT WITH H8 TEMPS 12-13C COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO DAYTIME
HIGHS WON/T CLIMB MUCH MONDAY...AS 50S WILL BE THE BEST WE CAN DO. ANY
MEASURABLE QPF WILL RESIDE EAST OF THE NRN WV PANHANDLE SUN NGT
WITH LKLY NUMBERS OVER FAR EASTERN AREAS. NW WINDS WILL CREATE
POTENTIAL FOR LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS AND CLOUDS MUCH OF MONDAY
NORTH OF I-76.

ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DRIES OUT THE COLUMN FROM WEST TO EAST MON
NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG EXISTS AS PLACEMENT OF HIGH
WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR CALM WINDS AND A CLEAR SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SUBSIDENCE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. H5 HEIGHTS CLIMB TO AROUND 588DM
AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. WITH ANTICYCLONES STACKED
ON TOP OF THEMSELVES...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD IS FORESEEN UNTIL
FRIDAY WHEN RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE ALLOWS MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TO ADVECT EASTWARD. H8 TEMPS REBOUND
QUICKLY TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR A WARMER AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES
RECOVER BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS. SW FLOW AND BETTER MIXING PROMOTE
EVEN WARMER AFTERNOONS THUR - SAT WITH LOW TO MID 70S COMMON SAVE
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERALL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WERE A
BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WPC...WHILE NIGHT TIME LOWS
BIAS CORRECTED ECMWF GRIDS ALONG WITH INHERITED FORECAST WERE
USED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR WEATHER HOLDS UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING WHEN A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CIGS WILL TEETER ON THE FRINGE OF
MVFR/VFR SUN MORNING...HOWEVER EXPECT MORE VFR THAN MVFR OUTSIDE
FKL AND DUJ. TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST. THE FIRST ARRIVES AHEAD OF THE FRONT MID SUN MORNING...WHILE
THE SECOND IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE IN THE
AFTERNOON. COULD NOT RULE OUT A VERY SHORT WINDOW OF IFR
VSBYS...BUT THE TEMPORAL WINDOW AND PROB IS TOO LOW FOR TERMINAL
FCST.

OUTLOOK.../18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A COLD
FRONT CROSSES. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 35 KTS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

98





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201818
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
218 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY AND LIFTS NORTH
OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON SUNDAY. A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE...AND COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS...FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID MORNING UPDATE...HAVE TWEAKED SKY COVER AND POPS BASED UPON
LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. MORE COULD COVER THAN EXPECTED
ON THE DELMARVA...AND INCREASED POPS A BIT ACROSS THE EXTREME SE
BASED UPON LATEST RADAR. RADAR DATA HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A
WEAKENING TREND WITH OFFSHORE SHOWERS AS THEY APPROACH THE COAST.
AT THIS POINT...EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE...AND HAVE ONLY MADE
MODEST CHANGES TO POPS AS A RESULT. FORECAST MAX TEMPS LOOK
GOOD...ALTHO MAY HAVE TO TWEAK MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE E/SE...IF
CLOUD COVER PERSISTS OR THICKER CLOUDS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THAT
SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST.

EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION...SFC HIGH PRESSURE (CENTERED OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST) WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE LOCAL AREA TODAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SE COAST. THE
RESULTANT EASTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS TODAY...WHILE WESTERN AREAS WILL ENJOY A
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGH RES MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN KEEPING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS (20-25%) ACROSS FAR SERN
AREAS TODAY...INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS. DRY ELSEWHERE. AS FAR
AS TEMPERATURES...PLEASANT READINGS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 70S TO LOW 80S (HIGHEST INLAND).

FOR TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT NE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED IN-BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE
NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL LIMIT SMALL PCPN
CHANCES (~20%) TO FAR SERN AREAS ONCE AGAIN. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR WEST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY EAST. LOWS IN THE MID 50S WEST TO THE
LOW/MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE A DRY AND WARM DAY SUNDAY
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. MEANWHILE...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW QUICKLY MOVES NORTH WELL OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST. WINDS BECOMING W-SW IN ADDITION TO 850 TEMPS
CLIMBING TO AROUND 17C SUNDAY AFTN SHOULD BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

THE COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. THE MODELS SHOW A VERY NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE WITH THE
FRONT AS THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS PA. WITH THE BEST
FORCING TO THE NORTH AND LIMITED MOISTURE...HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AFTER THE FRONT
CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE FA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...AND MAX TEMPS
TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 75-80 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND UNEVENTFUL WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS MEANS A CONTINUATION OF
NE TO E WINDS WHICH MAY HAVE SOME MARINE IMPLICATIONS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK.

A SURFACE TROUGH MAY DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK. MODELS INDICATE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH SOME
OF IT SPREADING INTO OUR AREA. SLGT CHC SHOWERS ARE IN THE FCST ERN
VA/NE NC LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN ENE WIND...WITH SPEEDS OF 8-20KT
ALONG THE COAST...AND 5-10KT INLAND. CONDS ARE GENERALLY VFR
ACROSS THE CWA BUT TAF SITES ALONG THE COAST...ORF/ECG/PHF...HAVE
SHOWN SOME TEMPO MVFR CIGS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMES IN OFF THE
WATER. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE TREND THRU THE AFTN/EVENING AS THE
LOW GRADUALLY MOVES UP THE COAST.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA OVER COASTAL SE VA/NE NC TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS OFF THE COAST. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC -SHRA AND/OR
-TSRA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND PREVAILS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...A SCA WAS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW
POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. A SCA IS
ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND
THROUGH 4PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.
OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE SCA WINDS ~20KT ENE HAVE CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND. THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON. WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FT WILL OCCUR IN THE LOWER BAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A 10-15KT ENE WIND. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE ONSHORE
WIND WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 5-6FT OUT NEAR 20NM. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN ALLOWING THE
WIND TO SHIFT TO N-NE AND DIMINISH TO AOB 10KT. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
~5FT AND HENCE THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE RACES OFF TO THE NE SUNDAY...WITH THE WIND EVENTUALLY
BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A NNE WIND SHOULD
CONTINUE EARLY SUNDAY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS...SO THE SCA FOR
THIS PARTICULAR ZONE HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/WRS
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...AJZ/JEF
MARINE...AJZ/JEF







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201818
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
218 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY AND LIFTS NORTH
OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON SUNDAY. A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE...AND COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS...FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID MORNING UPDATE...HAVE TWEAKED SKY COVER AND POPS BASED UPON
LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. MORE COULD COVER THAN EXPECTED
ON THE DELMARVA...AND INCREASED POPS A BIT ACROSS THE EXTREME SE
BASED UPON LATEST RADAR. RADAR DATA HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A
WEAKENING TREND WITH OFFSHORE SHOWERS AS THEY APPROACH THE COAST.
AT THIS POINT...EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE...AND HAVE ONLY MADE
MODEST CHANGES TO POPS AS A RESULT. FORECAST MAX TEMPS LOOK
GOOD...ALTHO MAY HAVE TO TWEAK MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE E/SE...IF
CLOUD COVER PERSISTS OR THICKER CLOUDS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THAT
SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST.

EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION...SFC HIGH PRESSURE (CENTERED OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST) WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE LOCAL AREA TODAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SE COAST. THE
RESULTANT EASTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS TODAY...WHILE WESTERN AREAS WILL ENJOY A
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGH RES MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN KEEPING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS (20-25%) ACROSS FAR SERN
AREAS TODAY...INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS. DRY ELSEWHERE. AS FAR
AS TEMPERATURES...PLEASANT READINGS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 70S TO LOW 80S (HIGHEST INLAND).

FOR TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT NE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED IN-BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE
NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL LIMIT SMALL PCPN
CHANCES (~20%) TO FAR SERN AREAS ONCE AGAIN. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR WEST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY EAST. LOWS IN THE MID 50S WEST TO THE
LOW/MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE A DRY AND WARM DAY SUNDAY
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. MEANWHILE...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW QUICKLY MOVES NORTH WELL OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST. WINDS BECOMING W-SW IN ADDITION TO 850 TEMPS
CLIMBING TO AROUND 17C SUNDAY AFTN SHOULD BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

THE COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. THE MODELS SHOW A VERY NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE WITH THE
FRONT AS THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS PA. WITH THE BEST
FORCING TO THE NORTH AND LIMITED MOISTURE...HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AFTER THE FRONT
CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE FA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...AND MAX TEMPS
TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 75-80 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND UNEVENTFUL WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS MEANS A CONTINUATION OF
NE TO E WINDS WHICH MAY HAVE SOME MARINE IMPLICATIONS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK.

A SURFACE TROUGH MAY DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK. MODELS INDICATE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH SOME
OF IT SPREADING INTO OUR AREA. SLGT CHC SHOWERS ARE IN THE FCST ERN
VA/NE NC LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN ENE WIND...WITH SPEEDS OF 8-20KT
ALONG THE COAST...AND 5-10KT INLAND. CONDS ARE GENERALLY VFR
ACROSS THE CWA BUT TAF SITES ALONG THE COAST...ORF/ECG/PHF...HAVE
SHOWN SOME TEMPO MVFR CIGS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMES IN OFF THE
WATER. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE TREND THRU THE AFTN/EVENING AS THE
LOW GRADUALLY MOVES UP THE COAST.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA OVER COASTAL SE VA/NE NC TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS OFF THE COAST. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC -SHRA AND/OR
-TSRA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND PREVAILS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...A SCA WAS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW
POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. A SCA IS
ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND
THROUGH 4PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.
OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE SCA WINDS ~20KT ENE HAVE CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND. THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON. WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FT WILL OCCUR IN THE LOWER BAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A 10-15KT ENE WIND. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE ONSHORE
WIND WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 5-6FT OUT NEAR 20NM. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN ALLOWING THE
WIND TO SHIFT TO N-NE AND DIMINISH TO AOB 10KT. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
~5FT AND HENCE THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE RACES OFF TO THE NE SUNDAY...WITH THE WIND EVENTUALLY
BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A NNE WIND SHOULD
CONTINUE EARLY SUNDAY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS...SO THE SCA FOR
THIS PARTICULAR ZONE HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/WRS
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...AJZ/JEF
MARINE...AJZ/JEF






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201652
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1252 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM FOR ONE MORE DAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS BRIEF
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. MUCH COOLER
MONDAY...HOWEVER A WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE EACH DAY NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CAMPED OUT OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE MIDDAY UPDATE.

ONE LAST WARM DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
TAKES THE WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES DOWNHILL. THE LATEST 12Z PIT RAOB
ILLUSTRATES LOTS OF DRY AIR FROM H7 THROUGH H4 WHICH WILL MIX OUT
MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOTED NEAR THE SURFACE. NONETHELESS
STILL EXPECT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE GUSTY WINDS. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH
LOW PRESSURE ENCROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST AND A FAIRLY DEEP MIXING
LAYER. AFTERNOON MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 5-6KFT EQUATING TO
GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. NAM IS GENERATING ISOLD STORMS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER DUE TO THE INFLATED LLVL
MOISTURE THAT ITS PREDICTING...IGNORED IT AND CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FCST AREA WIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST. PRE-FRONTAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH AND IT WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING A RATHER STABLE ATMOSPHERE. WILL KEEP POPS LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE MORE CLOUDS THAN
PRECIPITATION.

FRONT REACHES WESTERN ZONES BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AND AN IMPRESSIVE WIND
FIELD AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT CONTINUE TO SEE A LACK
OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE CLOUD COVER FROM SATURDAY NIGHTS
SHORTWAVE WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPS. A SIGNIFICANT LINE OF LOW
LEVEL FORCING DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWEST LAYERS INCREASES. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE
CLOUD COVER AND HOW THIS LIMITS SURFACE TEMPS. ADDITIONALLY...ANY
SHOWERS THAT FALL WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL SHORTWAVE WILL COOL THE
ATMOSPHERE...FURTHER DECREASING THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS.

SUNDAY`S FRONT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THE POTENTIAL IS THERE
FOR A STRONGER EVENT...BUT SO ARE THE LIMITING FACTORS. IF A LINE
OF STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPS IT WILL BE DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY.

FRONT PICKS UP SPEED SUNDAY EVENING AS STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STRONG CAA AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW
THE SHORTWAVE. WOULD EXPECT A LARGE STRATOCU DECK TO MOVE OVER THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH A LARGE PART OF MONDAY. ITS
POSSIBLE THAT A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP...SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE SHORTWAVE...AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
MAIN COLD POOL.

WILL GO BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH THE CAA AND CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SUBSIDENCE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. H5 HEIGHTS CLIMB TO AROUND 588DM
AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. WITH ANTICYCLONES STACKED
ON TOP OF THEMSELVES...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD IS FORESEEN UNTIL
FRIDAY WHEN RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE ALLOWS MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TO ADVECT EASTWARD. H8 TEMPS REBOUND
QUICKLY TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR A WARMER AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES
RECOVER BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS. SW FLOW AND BETTER MIXING PROMOTE
EVEN WARMER AFTERNOONS THUR - SAT WITH LOW TO MID 70S COMMON SAVE
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERALL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WERE A
BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WPC...WHILE NIGHT TIME LOWS
BIAS CORRECTED ECMWF GRIDS ALONG WITH INHERITED FORECAST WERE
USED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR WEATHER HOLDS UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING WHEN A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CIGS WILL TEETER ON THE FRINGE OF
MVFR/VFR SUN MORNING...HOWEVER EXPECT MORE VFR THAN MVFR OUTSIDE
FKL AND DUJ. TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST. THE FIRST ARRIVES AHEAD OF THE FRONT MID SUN MORNING...WHILE
THE SECOND IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE IN THE
AFTERNOON. COULD NOT RULE OUT A VERY SHORT WINDOW OF IFR
VSBYS...BUT THE TEMPORAL WINDOW AND PROB IS TOO LOW FOR TERMINAL
FCST.

OUTLOOK.../18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A COLD
FRONT CROSSES. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 35 KTS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...98
NEAR TERM...98
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...98
AVIATION...98






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201652
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1252 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM FOR ONE MORE DAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS BRIEF
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. MUCH COOLER
MONDAY...HOWEVER A WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE EACH DAY NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CAMPED OUT OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE MIDDAY UPDATE.

ONE LAST WARM DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
TAKES THE WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES DOWNHILL. THE LATEST 12Z PIT RAOB
ILLUSTRATES LOTS OF DRY AIR FROM H7 THROUGH H4 WHICH WILL MIX OUT
MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOTED NEAR THE SURFACE. NONETHELESS
STILL EXPECT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE GUSTY WINDS. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH
LOW PRESSURE ENCROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST AND A FAIRLY DEEP MIXING
LAYER. AFTERNOON MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 5-6KFT EQUATING TO
GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. NAM IS GENERATING ISOLD STORMS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER DUE TO THE INFLATED LLVL
MOISTURE THAT ITS PREDICTING...IGNORED IT AND CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FCST AREA WIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST. PRE-FRONTAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH AND IT WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING A RATHER STABLE ATMOSPHERE. WILL KEEP POPS LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE MORE CLOUDS THAN
PRECIPITATION.

FRONT REACHES WESTERN ZONES BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AND AN IMPRESSIVE WIND
FIELD AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT CONTINUE TO SEE A LACK
OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE CLOUD COVER FROM SATURDAY NIGHTS
SHORTWAVE WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPS. A SIGNIFICANT LINE OF LOW
LEVEL FORCING DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWEST LAYERS INCREASES. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE
CLOUD COVER AND HOW THIS LIMITS SURFACE TEMPS. ADDITIONALLY...ANY
SHOWERS THAT FALL WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL SHORTWAVE WILL COOL THE
ATMOSPHERE...FURTHER DECREASING THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS.

SUNDAY`S FRONT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THE POTENTIAL IS THERE
FOR A STRONGER EVENT...BUT SO ARE THE LIMITING FACTORS. IF A LINE
OF STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPS IT WILL BE DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY.

FRONT PICKS UP SPEED SUNDAY EVENING AS STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STRONG CAA AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW
THE SHORTWAVE. WOULD EXPECT A LARGE STRATOCU DECK TO MOVE OVER THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH A LARGE PART OF MONDAY. ITS
POSSIBLE THAT A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP...SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE SHORTWAVE...AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
MAIN COLD POOL.

WILL GO BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH THE CAA AND CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SUBSIDENCE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. H5 HEIGHTS CLIMB TO AROUND 588DM
AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. WITH ANTICYCLONES STACKED
ON TOP OF THEMSELVES...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD IS FORESEEN UNTIL
FRIDAY WHEN RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE ALLOWS MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TO ADVECT EASTWARD. H8 TEMPS REBOUND
QUICKLY TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR A WARMER AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES
RECOVER BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS. SW FLOW AND BETTER MIXING PROMOTE
EVEN WARMER AFTERNOONS THUR - SAT WITH LOW TO MID 70S COMMON SAVE
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERALL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WERE A
BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WPC...WHILE NIGHT TIME LOWS
BIAS CORRECTED ECMWF GRIDS ALONG WITH INHERITED FORECAST WERE
USED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR WEATHER HOLDS UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING WHEN A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CIGS WILL TEETER ON THE FRINGE OF
MVFR/VFR SUN MORNING...HOWEVER EXPECT MORE VFR THAN MVFR OUTSIDE
FKL AND DUJ. TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST. THE FIRST ARRIVES AHEAD OF THE FRONT MID SUN MORNING...WHILE
THE SECOND IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE IN THE
AFTERNOON. COULD NOT RULE OUT A VERY SHORT WINDOW OF IFR
VSBYS...BUT THE TEMPORAL WINDOW AND PROB IS TOO LOW FOR TERMINAL
FCST.

OUTLOOK.../18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A COLD
FRONT CROSSES. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 35 KTS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...98
NEAR TERM...98
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...98
AVIATION...98






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201652
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1252 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM FOR ONE MORE DAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS BRIEF
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. MUCH COOLER
MONDAY...HOWEVER A WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE EACH DAY NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CAMPED OUT OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE MIDDAY UPDATE.

ONE LAST WARM DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
TAKES THE WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES DOWNHILL. THE LATEST 12Z PIT RAOB
ILLUSTRATES LOTS OF DRY AIR FROM H7 THROUGH H4 WHICH WILL MIX OUT
MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOTED NEAR THE SURFACE. NONETHELESS
STILL EXPECT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE GUSTY WINDS. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH
LOW PRESSURE ENCROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST AND A FAIRLY DEEP MIXING
LAYER. AFTERNOON MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 5-6KFT EQUATING TO
GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. NAM IS GENERATING ISOLD STORMS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER DUE TO THE INFLATED LLVL
MOISTURE THAT ITS PREDICTING...IGNORED IT AND CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FCST AREA WIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST. PRE-FRONTAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH AND IT WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING A RATHER STABLE ATMOSPHERE. WILL KEEP POPS LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE MORE CLOUDS THAN
PRECIPITATION.

FRONT REACHES WESTERN ZONES BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AND AN IMPRESSIVE WIND
FIELD AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT CONTINUE TO SEE A LACK
OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE CLOUD COVER FROM SATURDAY NIGHTS
SHORTWAVE WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPS. A SIGNIFICANT LINE OF LOW
LEVEL FORCING DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWEST LAYERS INCREASES. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE
CLOUD COVER AND HOW THIS LIMITS SURFACE TEMPS. ADDITIONALLY...ANY
SHOWERS THAT FALL WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL SHORTWAVE WILL COOL THE
ATMOSPHERE...FURTHER DECREASING THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS.

SUNDAY`S FRONT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THE POTENTIAL IS THERE
FOR A STRONGER EVENT...BUT SO ARE THE LIMITING FACTORS. IF A LINE
OF STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPS IT WILL BE DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY.

FRONT PICKS UP SPEED SUNDAY EVENING AS STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STRONG CAA AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW
THE SHORTWAVE. WOULD EXPECT A LARGE STRATOCU DECK TO MOVE OVER THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH A LARGE PART OF MONDAY. ITS
POSSIBLE THAT A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP...SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE SHORTWAVE...AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
MAIN COLD POOL.

WILL GO BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH THE CAA AND CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SUBSIDENCE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. H5 HEIGHTS CLIMB TO AROUND 588DM
AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. WITH ANTICYCLONES STACKED
ON TOP OF THEMSELVES...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD IS FORESEEN UNTIL
FRIDAY WHEN RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE ALLOWS MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TO ADVECT EASTWARD. H8 TEMPS REBOUND
QUICKLY TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR A WARMER AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES
RECOVER BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS. SW FLOW AND BETTER MIXING PROMOTE
EVEN WARMER AFTERNOONS THUR - SAT WITH LOW TO MID 70S COMMON SAVE
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERALL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WERE A
BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WPC...WHILE NIGHT TIME LOWS
BIAS CORRECTED ECMWF GRIDS ALONG WITH INHERITED FORECAST WERE
USED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR WEATHER HOLDS UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING WHEN A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CIGS WILL TEETER ON THE FRINGE OF
MVFR/VFR SUN MORNING...HOWEVER EXPECT MORE VFR THAN MVFR OUTSIDE
FKL AND DUJ. TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST. THE FIRST ARRIVES AHEAD OF THE FRONT MID SUN MORNING...WHILE
THE SECOND IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE IN THE
AFTERNOON. COULD NOT RULE OUT A VERY SHORT WINDOW OF IFR
VSBYS...BUT THE TEMPORAL WINDOW AND PROB IS TOO LOW FOR TERMINAL
FCST.

OUTLOOK.../18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A COLD
FRONT CROSSES. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 35 KTS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...98
NEAR TERM...98
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...98
AVIATION...98






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201652
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1252 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM FOR ONE MORE DAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS BRIEF
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. MUCH COOLER
MONDAY...HOWEVER A WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE EACH DAY NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CAMPED OUT OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE MIDDAY UPDATE.

ONE LAST WARM DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
TAKES THE WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES DOWNHILL. THE LATEST 12Z PIT RAOB
ILLUSTRATES LOTS OF DRY AIR FROM H7 THROUGH H4 WHICH WILL MIX OUT
MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOTED NEAR THE SURFACE. NONETHELESS
STILL EXPECT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE GUSTY WINDS. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH
LOW PRESSURE ENCROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST AND A FAIRLY DEEP MIXING
LAYER. AFTERNOON MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 5-6KFT EQUATING TO
GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. NAM IS GENERATING ISOLD STORMS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER DUE TO THE INFLATED LLVL
MOISTURE THAT ITS PREDICTING...IGNORED IT AND CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FCST AREA WIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST. PRE-FRONTAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH AND IT WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING A RATHER STABLE ATMOSPHERE. WILL KEEP POPS LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE MORE CLOUDS THAN
PRECIPITATION.

FRONT REACHES WESTERN ZONES BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AND AN IMPRESSIVE WIND
FIELD AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT CONTINUE TO SEE A LACK
OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE CLOUD COVER FROM SATURDAY NIGHTS
SHORTWAVE WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPS. A SIGNIFICANT LINE OF LOW
LEVEL FORCING DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWEST LAYERS INCREASES. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE
CLOUD COVER AND HOW THIS LIMITS SURFACE TEMPS. ADDITIONALLY...ANY
SHOWERS THAT FALL WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL SHORTWAVE WILL COOL THE
ATMOSPHERE...FURTHER DECREASING THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS.

SUNDAY`S FRONT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THE POTENTIAL IS THERE
FOR A STRONGER EVENT...BUT SO ARE THE LIMITING FACTORS. IF A LINE
OF STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPS IT WILL BE DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY.

FRONT PICKS UP SPEED SUNDAY EVENING AS STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STRONG CAA AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW
THE SHORTWAVE. WOULD EXPECT A LARGE STRATOCU DECK TO MOVE OVER THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH A LARGE PART OF MONDAY. ITS
POSSIBLE THAT A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP...SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE SHORTWAVE...AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
MAIN COLD POOL.

WILL GO BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH THE CAA AND CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SUBSIDENCE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. H5 HEIGHTS CLIMB TO AROUND 588DM
AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. WITH ANTICYCLONES STACKED
ON TOP OF THEMSELVES...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD IS FORESEEN UNTIL
FRIDAY WHEN RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE ALLOWS MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TO ADVECT EASTWARD. H8 TEMPS REBOUND
QUICKLY TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR A WARMER AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES
RECOVER BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS. SW FLOW AND BETTER MIXING PROMOTE
EVEN WARMER AFTERNOONS THUR - SAT WITH LOW TO MID 70S COMMON SAVE
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERALL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WERE A
BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WPC...WHILE NIGHT TIME LOWS
BIAS CORRECTED ECMWF GRIDS ALONG WITH INHERITED FORECAST WERE
USED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR WEATHER HOLDS UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING WHEN A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CIGS WILL TEETER ON THE FRINGE OF
MVFR/VFR SUN MORNING...HOWEVER EXPECT MORE VFR THAN MVFR OUTSIDE
FKL AND DUJ. TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST. THE FIRST ARRIVES AHEAD OF THE FRONT MID SUN MORNING...WHILE
THE SECOND IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE IN THE
AFTERNOON. COULD NOT RULE OUT A VERY SHORT WINDOW OF IFR
VSBYS...BUT THE TEMPORAL WINDOW AND PROB IS TOO LOW FOR TERMINAL
FCST.

OUTLOOK.../18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A COLD
FRONT CROSSES. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 35 KTS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...98
NEAR TERM...98
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...98
AVIATION...98






000
FXUS61 KPHI 201502
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1102 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO RIDE UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. AT THE
SAME TIME, A COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES,
WILL TRACK EAST AND PASS OFF THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TWO SEPARATE AREAS OF CLOUDS...ONE ACROSS THE WRN/NRN PARTS OF THE
AREA AND THE OTHER OFF THE SOUTH/EAST COASTAL AREAS...ARE BECOMING
LESS DEFINED AS DIURNAL CU IS FILLING IN BETWEEN THE TWO. CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY HAVE THE UPPER HAND THIS AFTERNOON AS A MOSTLY ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES. WE HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO TEMP/DEW
POINTS SINCE CONDITIONS LOOK MOSTLY ON-TRACK.

THE ONLY CHC FOR SOME PRECIP LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WILL BE ACROSS
THE SRN NJ AND DE COASTAL AREAS WHERE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
MAY OCCUR LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
INCREASE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE TO
REACH THE COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BUT, FOR THE MOST PART, IT
LOOKS TO REMAIN MORE OFFSHORE AND WE SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY. IN ANY
EVENT, IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME STRATUS AND FOG WILL START TO FORM
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND, TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COOL
AS THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. EXPECT LOWS TO REMAIN UPPER 50S NORTH
AND WEST OF PHILADELPHIA AND MAINLY AROUND 60 INTO THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE FEATURES...LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME, A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. BY MONDAY MORNING, THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
OFF THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO BE BROAD, STRETCHING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC, THEN TO DOWN EAST MAINE ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

PRECIPITATION...ONLY ONE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS ISSUANCE,
AND THAT`S WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES...AT OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY NEAR NORMAL READINGS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AT
OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED LATER IN THE
WEEK.

WINDS...OTHER THAN SOME BREEZY NORTH WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON
MONDAY, WINDS WILL BE BENIGN THROUGH THE PERIOD.

IMPACTS...EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRYNESS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS...A FEW
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AT KABE AND KILG HAVE MIXED OUT. THE
DIURNAL CU MAY OCNLY BE HIGH-END MVFR...BUT WE WILL WAIT TO SEE
HOW THINGS SETTLE BEFORE COMMITTING TO BKN MVFR FOR ANY LONGER
PERIODS OF TIME.

TONIGHT...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH IFR, POSSIBLY SOME LIFR
CONDITIONS, POSSIBLE AS FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. SOME
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK, MAINLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT, BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FOG OR STRATUS POSSIBLE EARLY ON
SUNDAY...THEN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MID AFTERNOON. LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUR TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON MONDAY...LESS WIND ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF OUR OCEAN FRONT
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE NORTHERNMOST OCEAN ZONE AND THE DELAWARE
BAY ARE CURRENTLY HEADLINE FREE.

THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WINDS WILL 15
TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 4 TO 6
FEET ON THE OCEAN WITH HIGHER SEAS TO THE SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...NO HEADLINES EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS AND WAVES WILL START TO
INCREASE AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 6 FEET EXPECTED AND SHORT PERIOD SWELLS,
IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG
THE NJ COAST.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ451>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...MEOLA/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...DRAG/KRUZDLO
AVIATION...KRUZDLO/MEOLA
MARINE...KRUZDLO/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 201502
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1102 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO RIDE UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. AT THE
SAME TIME, A COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES,
WILL TRACK EAST AND PASS OFF THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TWO SEPARATE AREAS OF CLOUDS...ONE ACROSS THE WRN/NRN PARTS OF THE
AREA AND THE OTHER OFF THE SOUTH/EAST COASTAL AREAS...ARE BECOMING
LESS DEFINED AS DIURNAL CU IS FILLING IN BETWEEN THE TWO. CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY HAVE THE UPPER HAND THIS AFTERNOON AS A MOSTLY ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES. WE HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO TEMP/DEW
POINTS SINCE CONDITIONS LOOK MOSTLY ON-TRACK.

THE ONLY CHC FOR SOME PRECIP LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WILL BE ACROSS
THE SRN NJ AND DE COASTAL AREAS WHERE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
MAY OCCUR LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
INCREASE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE TO
REACH THE COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BUT, FOR THE MOST PART, IT
LOOKS TO REMAIN MORE OFFSHORE AND WE SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY. IN ANY
EVENT, IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME STRATUS AND FOG WILL START TO FORM
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND, TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COOL
AS THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. EXPECT LOWS TO REMAIN UPPER 50S NORTH
AND WEST OF PHILADELPHIA AND MAINLY AROUND 60 INTO THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE FEATURES...LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME, A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. BY MONDAY MORNING, THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
OFF THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO BE BROAD, STRETCHING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC, THEN TO DOWN EAST MAINE ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

PRECIPITATION...ONLY ONE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS ISSUANCE,
AND THAT`S WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES...AT OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY NEAR NORMAL READINGS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AT
OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED LATER IN THE
WEEK.

WINDS...OTHER THAN SOME BREEZY NORTH WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON
MONDAY, WINDS WILL BE BENIGN THROUGH THE PERIOD.

IMPACTS...EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRYNESS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS...A FEW
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AT KABE AND KILG HAVE MIXED OUT. THE
DIURNAL CU MAY OCNLY BE HIGH-END MVFR...BUT WE WILL WAIT TO SEE
HOW THINGS SETTLE BEFORE COMMITTING TO BKN MVFR FOR ANY LONGER
PERIODS OF TIME.

TONIGHT...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH IFR, POSSIBLY SOME LIFR
CONDITIONS, POSSIBLE AS FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. SOME
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK, MAINLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT, BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FOG OR STRATUS POSSIBLE EARLY ON
SUNDAY...THEN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MID AFTERNOON. LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUR TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON MONDAY...LESS WIND ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF OUR OCEAN FRONT
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE NORTHERNMOST OCEAN ZONE AND THE DELAWARE
BAY ARE CURRENTLY HEADLINE FREE.

THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WINDS WILL 15
TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 4 TO 6
FEET ON THE OCEAN WITH HIGHER SEAS TO THE SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...NO HEADLINES EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS AND WAVES WILL START TO
INCREASE AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 6 FEET EXPECTED AND SHORT PERIOD SWELLS,
IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG
THE NJ COAST.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ451>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...MEOLA/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...DRAG/KRUZDLO
AVIATION...KRUZDLO/MEOLA
MARINE...KRUZDLO/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201405
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1005 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM FOR ONE MORE DAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS BRIEF
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. MUCH COOLER
MONDAY...HOWEVER A WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE EACH DAY NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CAMPED OUT OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONE LAST WARM DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
TAKES THE WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES DOWNHILL. THE LATEST 12Z PIT RAOB
ILLUSTRATES LOTS OF DRY AIR FROM H7 THROUGH H4 WHICH WILL MIX OUT
MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOTED NEAR THE SURFACE. NONETHELESS
STILL EXPECT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE GUSTY WINDS. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH
LOW PRESSURE ENCROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST AND A FAIRLY DEEP MIXING
LAYER. AFTERNOON MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 5-6KFT EQUATING TO
GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. NAM IS GENERATING ISOLD STORMS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER DUE TO THE INFLATED LLVL
MOISTURE THAT ITS PREDICTING...IGNORED IT AND CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FCST AREA WIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST. PRE-FRONTAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH AND IT WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING A RATHER STABLE ATMOSPHERE. WILL KEEP POPS LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE MORE CLOUDS THAN
PRECIPITATION.

FRONT REACHES WESTERN ZONES BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AND AN IMPRESSIVE WIND
FIELD AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT CONTINUE TO SEE A LACK
OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE CLOUD COVER FROM SATURDAY NIGHTS
SHORTWAVE WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPS. A SIGNIFICANT LINE OF LOW
LEVEL FORCING DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWEST LAYERS INCREASES. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE
CLOUD COVER AND HOW THIS LIMITS SURFACE TEMPS. ADDITIONALLY...ANY
SHOWERS THAT FALL WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL SHORTWAVE WILL COOL THE
ATMOSPHERE...FURTHER DECREASING THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS.

SUNDAY`S FRONT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THE POTENTIAL IS THERE
FOR A STRONGER EVENT...BUT SO ARE THE LIMITING FACTORS. IF A LINE
OF STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPS IT WILL BE DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY.

FRONT PICKS UP SPEED SUNDAY EVENING AS STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STRONG CAA AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW
THE SHORTWAVE. WOULD EXPECT A LARGE STRATOCU DECK TO MOVE OVER THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH A LARGE PART OF MONDAY. ITS
POSSIBLE THAT A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP...SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE SHORTWAVE...AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
MAIN COLD POOL.

WILL GO BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH THE CAA AND CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONDITIONS TODAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING BY LATE THIS MORNING AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
GENERAL RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AS A COLD
FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$


SYNOPSIS...98
NEAR TERM...98
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...88
AVIATION...88





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201405
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1005 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM FOR ONE MORE DAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS BRIEF
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. MUCH COOLER
MONDAY...HOWEVER A WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE EACH DAY NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CAMPED OUT OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONE LAST WARM DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
TAKES THE WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES DOWNHILL. THE LATEST 12Z PIT RAOB
ILLUSTRATES LOTS OF DRY AIR FROM H7 THROUGH H4 WHICH WILL MIX OUT
MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOTED NEAR THE SURFACE. NONETHELESS
STILL EXPECT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE GUSTY WINDS. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH
LOW PRESSURE ENCROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST AND A FAIRLY DEEP MIXING
LAYER. AFTERNOON MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 5-6KFT EQUATING TO
GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. NAM IS GENERATING ISOLD STORMS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER DUE TO THE INFLATED LLVL
MOISTURE THAT ITS PREDICTING...IGNORED IT AND CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FCST AREA WIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST. PRE-FRONTAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH AND IT WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING A RATHER STABLE ATMOSPHERE. WILL KEEP POPS LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE MORE CLOUDS THAN
PRECIPITATION.

FRONT REACHES WESTERN ZONES BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AND AN IMPRESSIVE WIND
FIELD AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT CONTINUE TO SEE A LACK
OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE CLOUD COVER FROM SATURDAY NIGHTS
SHORTWAVE WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPS. A SIGNIFICANT LINE OF LOW
LEVEL FORCING DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWEST LAYERS INCREASES. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE
CLOUD COVER AND HOW THIS LIMITS SURFACE TEMPS. ADDITIONALLY...ANY
SHOWERS THAT FALL WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL SHORTWAVE WILL COOL THE
ATMOSPHERE...FURTHER DECREASING THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS.

SUNDAY`S FRONT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THE POTENTIAL IS THERE
FOR A STRONGER EVENT...BUT SO ARE THE LIMITING FACTORS. IF A LINE
OF STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPS IT WILL BE DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY.

FRONT PICKS UP SPEED SUNDAY EVENING AS STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STRONG CAA AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW
THE SHORTWAVE. WOULD EXPECT A LARGE STRATOCU DECK TO MOVE OVER THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH A LARGE PART OF MONDAY. ITS
POSSIBLE THAT A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP...SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE SHORTWAVE...AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
MAIN COLD POOL.

WILL GO BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH THE CAA AND CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONDITIONS TODAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING BY LATE THIS MORNING AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
GENERAL RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AS A COLD
FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$


SYNOPSIS...98
NEAR TERM...98
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...88
AVIATION...88





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201405
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1005 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM FOR ONE MORE DAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS BRIEF
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. MUCH COOLER
MONDAY...HOWEVER A WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE EACH DAY NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CAMPED OUT OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONE LAST WARM DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
TAKES THE WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES DOWNHILL. THE LATEST 12Z PIT RAOB
ILLUSTRATES LOTS OF DRY AIR FROM H7 THROUGH H4 WHICH WILL MIX OUT
MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOTED NEAR THE SURFACE. NONETHELESS
STILL EXPECT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE GUSTY WINDS. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH
LOW PRESSURE ENCROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST AND A FAIRLY DEEP MIXING
LAYER. AFTERNOON MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 5-6KFT EQUATING TO
GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. NAM IS GENERATING ISOLD STORMS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER DUE TO THE INFLATED LLVL
MOISTURE THAT ITS PREDICTING...IGNORED IT AND CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FCST AREA WIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST. PRE-FRONTAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH AND IT WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING A RATHER STABLE ATMOSPHERE. WILL KEEP POPS LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE MORE CLOUDS THAN
PRECIPITATION.

FRONT REACHES WESTERN ZONES BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AND AN IMPRESSIVE WIND
FIELD AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT CONTINUE TO SEE A LACK
OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE CLOUD COVER FROM SATURDAY NIGHTS
SHORTWAVE WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPS. A SIGNIFICANT LINE OF LOW
LEVEL FORCING DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWEST LAYERS INCREASES. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE
CLOUD COVER AND HOW THIS LIMITS SURFACE TEMPS. ADDITIONALLY...ANY
SHOWERS THAT FALL WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL SHORTWAVE WILL COOL THE
ATMOSPHERE...FURTHER DECREASING THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS.

SUNDAY`S FRONT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THE POTENTIAL IS THERE
FOR A STRONGER EVENT...BUT SO ARE THE LIMITING FACTORS. IF A LINE
OF STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPS IT WILL BE DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY.

FRONT PICKS UP SPEED SUNDAY EVENING AS STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STRONG CAA AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW
THE SHORTWAVE. WOULD EXPECT A LARGE STRATOCU DECK TO MOVE OVER THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH A LARGE PART OF MONDAY. ITS
POSSIBLE THAT A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP...SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE SHORTWAVE...AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
MAIN COLD POOL.

WILL GO BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH THE CAA AND CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONDITIONS TODAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING BY LATE THIS MORNING AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
GENERAL RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AS A COLD
FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$


SYNOPSIS...98
NEAR TERM...98
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...88
AVIATION...88





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201405
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1005 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM FOR ONE MORE DAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS BRIEF
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. MUCH COOLER
MONDAY...HOWEVER A WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE EACH DAY NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CAMPED OUT OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONE LAST WARM DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
TAKES THE WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES DOWNHILL. THE LATEST 12Z PIT RAOB
ILLUSTRATES LOTS OF DRY AIR FROM H7 THROUGH H4 WHICH WILL MIX OUT
MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOTED NEAR THE SURFACE. NONETHELESS
STILL EXPECT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE GUSTY WINDS. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH
LOW PRESSURE ENCROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST AND A FAIRLY DEEP MIXING
LAYER. AFTERNOON MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 5-6KFT EQUATING TO
GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. NAM IS GENERATING ISOLD STORMS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER DUE TO THE INFLATED LLVL
MOISTURE THAT ITS PREDICTING...IGNORED IT AND CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FCST AREA WIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST. PRE-FRONTAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH AND IT WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING A RATHER STABLE ATMOSPHERE. WILL KEEP POPS LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE MORE CLOUDS THAN
PRECIPITATION.

FRONT REACHES WESTERN ZONES BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AND AN IMPRESSIVE WIND
FIELD AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT CONTINUE TO SEE A LACK
OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE CLOUD COVER FROM SATURDAY NIGHTS
SHORTWAVE WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPS. A SIGNIFICANT LINE OF LOW
LEVEL FORCING DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWEST LAYERS INCREASES. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE
CLOUD COVER AND HOW THIS LIMITS SURFACE TEMPS. ADDITIONALLY...ANY
SHOWERS THAT FALL WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL SHORTWAVE WILL COOL THE
ATMOSPHERE...FURTHER DECREASING THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS.

SUNDAY`S FRONT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THE POTENTIAL IS THERE
FOR A STRONGER EVENT...BUT SO ARE THE LIMITING FACTORS. IF A LINE
OF STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPS IT WILL BE DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY.

FRONT PICKS UP SPEED SUNDAY EVENING AS STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STRONG CAA AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW
THE SHORTWAVE. WOULD EXPECT A LARGE STRATOCU DECK TO MOVE OVER THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH A LARGE PART OF MONDAY. ITS
POSSIBLE THAT A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP...SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE SHORTWAVE...AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
MAIN COLD POOL.

WILL GO BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH THE CAA AND CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONDITIONS TODAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING BY LATE THIS MORNING AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
GENERAL RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AS A COLD
FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$


SYNOPSIS...98
NEAR TERM...98
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...88
AVIATION...88





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201353
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
953 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY AND LIFTS NORTH
OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON SUNDAY. A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE...AND COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS...FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID MORNING UPDATE...HAVE TWEAKED SKY COVER AND POPS BASED UPON
LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. MORE COULD COVER THAN EXPECTED
ON THE DELMARVA...AND INCREASED POPS A BIT ACROSS THE EXTREME SE
BASED UPON LATEST RADAR. RADAR DATA HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A
WEAKENING TREND WITH OFFSHORE SHOWERS AS THEY APPROACH THE COAST.
AT THIS POINT...EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE...AND HAVE ONLY MADE
MODEST CHANGES TO POPS AS A RESULT. FORECAST MAX TEMPS LOOK
GOOD...ALTHO MAY HAVE TO TWEAK MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE E/SE...IF
CLOUD COVER PERSISTS OR THICKER CLOUDS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THAT
SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST.

EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION...SFC HIGH PRESSURE (CENTERED OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST) WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE LOCAL AREA TODAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SE COAST. THE
RESULTANT EASTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS TODAY...WHILE WESTERN AREAS WILL ENJOY A
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGH RES MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN KEEPING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS (20-25%) ACROSS FAR SERN
AREAS TODAY...INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS. DRY ELSEWHERE. AS FAR
AS TEMPERATURES...PLEASANT READINGS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 70S TO LOW 80S (HIGHEST INLAND).

FOR TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT NE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED IN-BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE
NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL LIMIT SMALL PCPN
CHANCES (~20%) TO FAR SERN AREAS ONCE AGAIN. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR WEST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY EAST. LOWS IN THE MID 50S WEST TO THE
LOW/MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE A DRY AND WARM DAY SUNDAY
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. MEANWHILE...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW QUICKLY MOVES NORTH WELL OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST. WINDS BECOMING W-SW IN ADDITION TO 850 TEMPS
CLIMBING TO AROUND 17C SUNDAY AFTN SHOULD BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

THE COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. THE MODELS SHOW A VERY NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE WITH THE
FRONT AS THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS PA. WITH THE BEST
FORCING TO THE NORTH AND LIMITED MOISTURE...HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AFTER THE FRONT
CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE FA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...AND MAX TEMPS
TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 75-80 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND UNEVENTFUL WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS MEANS A CONTINUATION OF
NE TO E WINDS WHICH MAY HAVE SOME MARINE IMPLICATIONS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK.

A SURFACE TROUGH MAY DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK. MODELS INDICATE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH SOME
OF IT SPREADING INTO OUR AREA. SLGT CHC SHOWERS ARE IN THE FCST ERN
VA/NE NC LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN ENE WIND...WITH SPEEDS OF 8-12KT
ALONG THE COAST...AND 5-8KT INLAND. THE SKY SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR
TO BEGIN THE DAY...WITH 5K FT CIGS POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON
OVER COASTAL SE VA/NE NC. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT...AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
SUNDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA OVER COASTAL SE VA/NE NC
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS OFF THE COAST. A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC
-SHRA AND/OR -TSRA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND PREVAILS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...A SCA WAS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW
POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. A SCA IS
ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND
THROUGH 4PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.
OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE SCA WINDS ~20KT ENE HAVE CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND. THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON. WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FT WILL OCCUR IN THE LOWER BAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A 10-15KT ENE WIND. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE ONSHORE
WIND WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 5-6FT OUT NEAR 20NM. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN ALLOWING THE
WIND TO SHIFT TO N-NE AND DIMINISH TO AOB 10KT. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
~5FT AND HENCE THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE RACES OFF TO THE NE SUNDAY...WITH THE WIND EVENTUALLY
BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A NNE WIND SHOULD
CONTINUE EARLY SUNDAY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS...SO THE SCA FOR
THIS PARTICULAR ZONE HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ632>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/WRS
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ/JEF






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201353
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
953 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY AND LIFTS NORTH
OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON SUNDAY. A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE...AND COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS...FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID MORNING UPDATE...HAVE TWEAKED SKY COVER AND POPS BASED UPON
LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. MORE COULD COVER THAN EXPECTED
ON THE DELMARVA...AND INCREASED POPS A BIT ACROSS THE EXTREME SE
BASED UPON LATEST RADAR. RADAR DATA HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A
WEAKENING TREND WITH OFFSHORE SHOWERS AS THEY APPROACH THE COAST.
AT THIS POINT...EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE...AND HAVE ONLY MADE
MODEST CHANGES TO POPS AS A RESULT. FORECAST MAX TEMPS LOOK
GOOD...ALTHO MAY HAVE TO TWEAK MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE E/SE...IF
CLOUD COVER PERSISTS OR THICKER CLOUDS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THAT
SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST.

EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION...SFC HIGH PRESSURE (CENTERED OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST) WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE LOCAL AREA TODAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SE COAST. THE
RESULTANT EASTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS TODAY...WHILE WESTERN AREAS WILL ENJOY A
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGH RES MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN KEEPING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS (20-25%) ACROSS FAR SERN
AREAS TODAY...INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS. DRY ELSEWHERE. AS FAR
AS TEMPERATURES...PLEASANT READINGS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 70S TO LOW 80S (HIGHEST INLAND).

FOR TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT NE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED IN-BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE
NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL LIMIT SMALL PCPN
CHANCES (~20%) TO FAR SERN AREAS ONCE AGAIN. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR WEST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY EAST. LOWS IN THE MID 50S WEST TO THE
LOW/MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE A DRY AND WARM DAY SUNDAY
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. MEANWHILE...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW QUICKLY MOVES NORTH WELL OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST. WINDS BECOMING W-SW IN ADDITION TO 850 TEMPS
CLIMBING TO AROUND 17C SUNDAY AFTN SHOULD BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

THE COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. THE MODELS SHOW A VERY NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE WITH THE
FRONT AS THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS PA. WITH THE BEST
FORCING TO THE NORTH AND LIMITED MOISTURE...HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AFTER THE FRONT
CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE FA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...AND MAX TEMPS
TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 75-80 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND UNEVENTFUL WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS MEANS A CONTINUATION OF
NE TO E WINDS WHICH MAY HAVE SOME MARINE IMPLICATIONS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK.

A SURFACE TROUGH MAY DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK. MODELS INDICATE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH SOME
OF IT SPREADING INTO OUR AREA. SLGT CHC SHOWERS ARE IN THE FCST ERN
VA/NE NC LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN ENE WIND...WITH SPEEDS OF 8-12KT
ALONG THE COAST...AND 5-8KT INLAND. THE SKY SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR
TO BEGIN THE DAY...WITH 5K FT CIGS POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON
OVER COASTAL SE VA/NE NC. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT...AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
SUNDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA OVER COASTAL SE VA/NE NC
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS OFF THE COAST. A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC
-SHRA AND/OR -TSRA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND PREVAILS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...A SCA WAS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW
POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. A SCA IS
ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND
THROUGH 4PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.
OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE SCA WINDS ~20KT ENE HAVE CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND. THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON. WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FT WILL OCCUR IN THE LOWER BAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A 10-15KT ENE WIND. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE ONSHORE
WIND WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 5-6FT OUT NEAR 20NM. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN ALLOWING THE
WIND TO SHIFT TO N-NE AND DIMINISH TO AOB 10KT. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
~5FT AND HENCE THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE RACES OFF TO THE NE SUNDAY...WITH THE WIND EVENTUALLY
BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A NNE WIND SHOULD
CONTINUE EARLY SUNDAY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS...SO THE SCA FOR
THIS PARTICULAR ZONE HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ632>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/WRS
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ/JEF







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201345
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
945 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY AND LIFTS NORTH
OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON SUNDAY. A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING
FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE (CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST) WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED OVER THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE SE COAST. THE RESULTANT EASTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN AREAS TODAY...WHILE
WESTERN AREAS WILL ENJOY A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGH RES
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
(20-25%) ACROSS FAR SERN AREAS TODAY...INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS.
DRY ELSEWHERE. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...PLEASANT READINGS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 70S TO LOW 80S
(HIGHEST INLAND).

FOR TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT NE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED IN-BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE
NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL LIMIT SMALL PCPN
CHANCES (~20%) TO FAR SERN AREAS ONCE AGAIN. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR WEST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY EAST. LOWS IN THE MID 50S WEST TO THE
LOW/MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE A DRY AND WARM DAY SUNDAY
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. MEANWHILE...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW QUICKLY MOVES NORTH WELL OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST. WINDS BECOMING W-SW IN ADDITION TO 850 TEMPS
CLIMBING TO AROUND 17C SUNDAY AFTN SHOULD BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

THE COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. THE MODELS SHOW A VERY NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE WITH THE
FRONT AS THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS PA. WITH THE BEST
FORCING TO THE NORTH AND LIMITED MOISTURE...HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AFTER THE FRONT
CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE FA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...AND MAX TEMPS
TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 75-80 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND UNEVENTFUL WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS MEANS A CONTINUATION OF
NE TO E WINDS WHICH MAY HAVE SOME MARINE IMPLICATIONS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK.

A SURFACE TROUGH MAY DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK. MODELS INDICATE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH SOME
OF IT SPREADING INTO OUR AREA. SLGT CHC SHOWERS ARE IN THE FCST ERN
VA/NE NC LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN ENE WIND...WITH SPEEDS OF 8-12KT
ALONG THE COAST...AND 5-8KT INLAND. THE SKY SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR
TO BEGIN THE DAY...WITH 5K FT CIGS POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON
OVER COASTAL SE VA/NE NC. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT...AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
SUNDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA OVER COASTAL SE VA/NE NC
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS OFF THE COAST. A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC
-SHRA AND/OR -TSRA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND PREVAILS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...A SCA WAS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW
POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. A SCA IS
ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND
THROUGH 4PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.
OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE SCA WINDS ~20KT ENE HAVE CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND. THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON. WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FT WILL OCCUR IN THE LOWER BAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A 10-15KT ENE WIND. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE ONSHORE
WIND WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 5-6FT OUT NEAR 20NM. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN ALLOWING THE
WIND TO SHIFT TO N-NE AND DIMINISH TO AOB 10KT. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
~5FT AND HENCE THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE RACES OFF TO THE NE SUNDAY...WITH THE WIND EVENTUALLY
BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A NNE WIND SHOULD
CONTINUE EARLY SUNDAY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS...SO THE SCA FOR
THIS PARTICULAR ZONE HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ632>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ/JEF






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201345
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
945 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY AND LIFTS NORTH
OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON SUNDAY. A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING
FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE (CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST) WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED OVER THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE SE COAST. THE RESULTANT EASTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN AREAS TODAY...WHILE
WESTERN AREAS WILL ENJOY A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGH RES
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
(20-25%) ACROSS FAR SERN AREAS TODAY...INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS.
DRY ELSEWHERE. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...PLEASANT READINGS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 70S TO LOW 80S
(HIGHEST INLAND).

FOR TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT NE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED IN-BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE
NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL LIMIT SMALL PCPN
CHANCES (~20%) TO FAR SERN AREAS ONCE AGAIN. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR WEST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY EAST. LOWS IN THE MID 50S WEST TO THE
LOW/MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE A DRY AND WARM DAY SUNDAY
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. MEANWHILE...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW QUICKLY MOVES NORTH WELL OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST. WINDS BECOMING W-SW IN ADDITION TO 850 TEMPS
CLIMBING TO AROUND 17C SUNDAY AFTN SHOULD BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

THE COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. THE MODELS SHOW A VERY NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE WITH THE
FRONT AS THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS PA. WITH THE BEST
FORCING TO THE NORTH AND LIMITED MOISTURE...HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AFTER THE FRONT
CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE FA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...AND MAX TEMPS
TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 75-80 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND UNEVENTFUL WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS MEANS A CONTINUATION OF
NE TO E WINDS WHICH MAY HAVE SOME MARINE IMPLICATIONS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK.

A SURFACE TROUGH MAY DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK. MODELS INDICATE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH SOME
OF IT SPREADING INTO OUR AREA. SLGT CHC SHOWERS ARE IN THE FCST ERN
VA/NE NC LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN ENE WIND...WITH SPEEDS OF 8-12KT
ALONG THE COAST...AND 5-8KT INLAND. THE SKY SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR
TO BEGIN THE DAY...WITH 5K FT CIGS POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON
OVER COASTAL SE VA/NE NC. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT...AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
SUNDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA OVER COASTAL SE VA/NE NC
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS OFF THE COAST. A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC
-SHRA AND/OR -TSRA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND PREVAILS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...A SCA WAS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW
POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. A SCA IS
ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND
THROUGH 4PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.
OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE SCA WINDS ~20KT ENE HAVE CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND. THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON. WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FT WILL OCCUR IN THE LOWER BAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A 10-15KT ENE WIND. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE ONSHORE
WIND WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 5-6FT OUT NEAR 20NM. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN ALLOWING THE
WIND TO SHIFT TO N-NE AND DIMINISH TO AOB 10KT. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
~5FT AND HENCE THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE RACES OFF TO THE NE SUNDAY...WITH THE WIND EVENTUALLY
BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A NNE WIND SHOULD
CONTINUE EARLY SUNDAY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS...SO THE SCA FOR
THIS PARTICULAR ZONE HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ632>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ/JEF







000
FXUS61 KLWX 201335
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
935 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
EXTEND SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO TONIGHT. A SURFACE
LOW WILL FORM OFF THE GEORGIA COAST TODAY AND PASS NORTHEAST BY
CAPE HATTERAS SUNDAY. A SECOND LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE MID- ATLANTIC SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. CONTINENTAL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN MONDAY AND WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 13Z...LOW CLOUDS/FOG HAVE LIFTED AND A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS
EXPECTED. EAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE AS A SFC RIDGE
FROM THE HIGH OFF NEW ENGLAND PERSISTS IN SPITE OF THE HIGH
PUSHING OUT TO SEA. LIGHT MIXING WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS GENERALLY
AROUND 80F AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT...BUT MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTH
WILL BE MEAGER. STILL...THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FORCING THE COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE PRETTY STRONG BY THE MODELS AND THAT
SHOULD IN TURN FORCE NARROW BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GUSTY OR PERHAPS SPOTTY DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS WHERE ADDED TERRAIN FORCING COULD RESULT IN BRIEFLY
MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY WANE AS THEY PUSH EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND TOWARDS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY DURING THE
EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE WEEK AHEAD SHOULD BE QUIET AND COOL...AS A LARGE AREA OF
HIPRES BLDS OVER THE ERN CONUS. MAY BE A LTL BIT BRZY MON DUE TO
CAA/H5 TROF AXIS DROPPING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AFTER
THAT...UPR HGTS RISE BUT AREA WL REMAIN ON THE ERN THEN SRN SIDE
OF THE SFC RDG. CONSEQUENCES WL BE CNDN FLOW TO BE REPLACED BY
MARINE FLOW BY WED. CUD BE DEALING W/ A LTL MORE CLDCVR FOR THE
2ND HALF OF THE WK... SPCLY E OF I-95. MAXT LWR-MID 70S THRUT THE
PD. MIN-T 40S TO LWR/MID 50S...WITH OVNGT TEMPS MODERATING SLGTLY
DUE TO WATER TEMPS...WHICH ARE STILL IN THE LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TODAY WITH VFR CONDS. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF
WHICH COULD HAVE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

VFR MON-WED UNDER HIPRES.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.

NW FLOW SHUD PROVIDE A GOOD MIXED PROFILE MON. MAY HV SOME SCA GUSTS
AT THAT TIME. BYD THAT...HIPRES WL BE BLDG ATOP MARINE AREA
RESULTING IN WNDS BECOMING LIGHTER. FLOW SHUD BE VEERING ELY BY WED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR CALVERT AND ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTIES TODAY.
ANOMALIES CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE AND
SENSITIVE LOCATIONS FROM SOLOMONS ISLAND TO ANNAPOLIS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH MINOR COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS.

DEPARTURES SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED...AS HIGH AS 1.5 FT ABOVE
NORMAL...WHICH MAY REQUIRE MORE COUNTIES TO BE IN THE ADVISORY FOR
THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ014-
     018.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/CAS
NEAR TERM...BAJ/CAS
SHORT TERM...BAJ/CAS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...BAJ/CAS/HTS
MARINE...BAJ/CAS/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BAJ







000
FXUS61 KLWX 201335
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
935 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
EXTEND SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO TONIGHT. A SURFACE
LOW WILL FORM OFF THE GEORGIA COAST TODAY AND PASS NORTHEAST BY
CAPE HATTERAS SUNDAY. A SECOND LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE MID- ATLANTIC SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. CONTINENTAL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN MONDAY AND WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 13Z...LOW CLOUDS/FOG HAVE LIFTED AND A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS
EXPECTED. EAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE AS A SFC RIDGE
FROM THE HIGH OFF NEW ENGLAND PERSISTS IN SPITE OF THE HIGH
PUSHING OUT TO SEA. LIGHT MIXING WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS GENERALLY
AROUND 80F AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT...BUT MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTH
WILL BE MEAGER. STILL...THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FORCING THE COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE PRETTY STRONG BY THE MODELS AND THAT
SHOULD IN TURN FORCE NARROW BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GUSTY OR PERHAPS SPOTTY DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS WHERE ADDED TERRAIN FORCING COULD RESULT IN BRIEFLY
MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY WANE AS THEY PUSH EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND TOWARDS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY DURING THE
EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE WEEK AHEAD SHOULD BE QUIET AND COOL...AS A LARGE AREA OF
HIPRES BLDS OVER THE ERN CONUS. MAY BE A LTL BIT BRZY MON DUE TO
CAA/H5 TROF AXIS DROPPING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AFTER
THAT...UPR HGTS RISE BUT AREA WL REMAIN ON THE ERN THEN SRN SIDE
OF THE SFC RDG. CONSEQUENCES WL BE CNDN FLOW TO BE REPLACED BY
MARINE FLOW BY WED. CUD BE DEALING W/ A LTL MORE CLDCVR FOR THE
2ND HALF OF THE WK... SPCLY E OF I-95. MAXT LWR-MID 70S THRUT THE
PD. MIN-T 40S TO LWR/MID 50S...WITH OVNGT TEMPS MODERATING SLGTLY
DUE TO WATER TEMPS...WHICH ARE STILL IN THE LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TODAY WITH VFR CONDS. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF
WHICH COULD HAVE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

VFR MON-WED UNDER HIPRES.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.

NW FLOW SHUD PROVIDE A GOOD MIXED PROFILE MON. MAY HV SOME SCA GUSTS
AT THAT TIME. BYD THAT...HIPRES WL BE BLDG ATOP MARINE AREA
RESULTING IN WNDS BECOMING LIGHTER. FLOW SHUD BE VEERING ELY BY WED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR CALVERT AND ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTIES TODAY.
ANOMALIES CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE AND
SENSITIVE LOCATIONS FROM SOLOMONS ISLAND TO ANNAPOLIS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH MINOR COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS.

DEPARTURES SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED...AS HIGH AS 1.5 FT ABOVE
NORMAL...WHICH MAY REQUIRE MORE COUNTIES TO BE IN THE ADVISORY FOR
THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ014-
     018.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/CAS
NEAR TERM...BAJ/CAS
SHORT TERM...BAJ/CAS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...BAJ/CAS/HTS
MARINE...BAJ/CAS/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BAJ








000
FXUS61 KPHI 201107
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
707 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO RIDE UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. AT THE
SAME TIME, A COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES,
WILL TRACK EAST AND PASS OFF THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL START TO GET SQUEEZED BETWEEN TWO LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS, A LOW BRINGING A COLD FRONT IN FROM THE WEST AND A
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY PUSH UP THE CAROLINA COAST.

LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY START TO BREAK UP THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE ISSUE WITH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON JUST HOW LONG
THE CLOUDS HANG AROUND COMBINED WITH A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW, AS
OPPOSED TO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AS WE HEAD INTO FALL, WE START TO
LOSE THAT STRONG SUN ANGLE AND IT TAKES LONGER FOR LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG TO BREAK UP. WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE AND INCREASING
MOISTURE, IT MAY TAKE A WHILE BEFORE WE SEE SOME BLUE PEEKING OUT IN
THE SKY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. IN ADDITION, THE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WON`T BE ABLE TO TAP INTO QUITE AS MUCH WARM AIR
AND COULD CERTAINLY LIMIT THE MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY. HOWEVER, THE SUN
IS STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO WARM THE SURFACE SHOULD WE BE ABLE TO
BREAK OUT. AREAS THAT SEE MORE SUN WILL WARM UP A BIT MORE. IN
GENERAL, TEMPERATURES WILL BE INTO THE 70S THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
INCREASE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE TO
REACH THE COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BUT, FOR THE MOST PART, IT
LOOKS TO REMAIN MORE OFFSHORE AND WE SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY. IN ANY
EVENT, IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME STRATUS AND FOG WILL START TO FORM
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND, TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COOL
AS THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. EXPECT LOWS TO REMAIN UPPER 50S NORTH
AND WEST OF PHILADELPHIA AND MAINLY AROUND 60 INTO THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE FEATURES...LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME, A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. BY MONDAY MORNING, THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
OFF THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO BE BROAD, STRETCHING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC, THEN TO DOWN EAST MAINE ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

PRECIPITATION...ONLY ONE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS ISSUANCE,
AND THAT`S WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES...AT OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY NEAR NORMAL READINGS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AT
OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED LATER IN THE
WEEK.

WINDS...OTHER THAN SOME BREEZY NORTH WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON
MONDAY, WINDS WILL BE BENIGN THROUGH THE PERIOD.

IMPACTS...EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRYNESS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BEEN HANGING AROUND, MAINLY WEST OF
KPHL, THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND A BIT. FINALLY
STARTING TO BREAK UP BETWEEN 14-17Z. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AT JUST
HOW LONG WE HOLD ONTO THE LOWER CEILINGS, AS THIS TIME OF YEAR, THE
SUN ANGLE ISN`T AS HIGH. WINDS WILL START TO PICK UP A BIT OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST BY AROUND 15Z. WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KNOTS, WITH A
FEW GUSTS UP TO 18KT POSSIBLE. A BRIEF SHOWER REMAINS POSSIBLE,
MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KPHL.

TONIGHT...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH IFR, POSSIBLY SOME LIFR
CONDITIONS, POSSIBLE AS FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. SOME
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK, MAINLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT, BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FOG OR STRATUS POSSIBLE EARLY ON
SUNDAY...THEN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MID AFTERNOON. LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUR TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON MONDAY...LESS WIND ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF OUR OCEAN FRONT
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE NORTHERNMOST OCEAN ZONE AND THE DELAWARE
BAY ARE CURRENTLY HEADLINE FREE.

THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WINDS WILL 15
TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 4 TO 6
FEET ON THE OCEAN WITH HIGHER SEAS TO THE SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...NO HEADLINES EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS AND WAVES WILL START TO
INCREASE AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 6 FEET EXPECTED AND SHORT PERIOD SWELLS,
IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG
THE NJ COAST.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ451>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...DRAG/KRUZDLO
AVIATION...KRUZDLO/MEOLA
MARINE...KRUZDLO/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 201107
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
707 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO RIDE UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. AT THE
SAME TIME, A COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES,
WILL TRACK EAST AND PASS OFF THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL START TO GET SQUEEZED BETWEEN TWO LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS, A LOW BRINGING A COLD FRONT IN FROM THE WEST AND A
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY PUSH UP THE CAROLINA COAST.

LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY START TO BREAK UP THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE ISSUE WITH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON JUST HOW LONG
THE CLOUDS HANG AROUND COMBINED WITH A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW, AS
OPPOSED TO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AS WE HEAD INTO FALL, WE START TO
LOSE THAT STRONG SUN ANGLE AND IT TAKES LONGER FOR LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG TO BREAK UP. WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE AND INCREASING
MOISTURE, IT MAY TAKE A WHILE BEFORE WE SEE SOME BLUE PEEKING OUT IN
THE SKY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. IN ADDITION, THE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WON`T BE ABLE TO TAP INTO QUITE AS MUCH WARM AIR
AND COULD CERTAINLY LIMIT THE MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY. HOWEVER, THE SUN
IS STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO WARM THE SURFACE SHOULD WE BE ABLE TO
BREAK OUT. AREAS THAT SEE MORE SUN WILL WARM UP A BIT MORE. IN
GENERAL, TEMPERATURES WILL BE INTO THE 70S THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
INCREASE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE TO
REACH THE COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BUT, FOR THE MOST PART, IT
LOOKS TO REMAIN MORE OFFSHORE AND WE SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY. IN ANY
EVENT, IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME STRATUS AND FOG WILL START TO FORM
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND, TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COOL
AS THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. EXPECT LOWS TO REMAIN UPPER 50S NORTH
AND WEST OF PHILADELPHIA AND MAINLY AROUND 60 INTO THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE FEATURES...LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME, A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. BY MONDAY MORNING, THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
OFF THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO BE BROAD, STRETCHING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC, THEN TO DOWN EAST MAINE ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

PRECIPITATION...ONLY ONE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS ISSUANCE,
AND THAT`S WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES...AT OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY NEAR NORMAL READINGS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AT
OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED LATER IN THE
WEEK.

WINDS...OTHER THAN SOME BREEZY NORTH WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON
MONDAY, WINDS WILL BE BENIGN THROUGH THE PERIOD.

IMPACTS...EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRYNESS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BEEN HANGING AROUND, MAINLY WEST OF
KPHL, THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND A BIT. FINALLY
STARTING TO BREAK UP BETWEEN 14-17Z. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AT JUST
HOW LONG WE HOLD ONTO THE LOWER CEILINGS, AS THIS TIME OF YEAR, THE
SUN ANGLE ISN`T AS HIGH. WINDS WILL START TO PICK UP A BIT OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST BY AROUND 15Z. WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KNOTS, WITH A
FEW GUSTS UP TO 18KT POSSIBLE. A BRIEF SHOWER REMAINS POSSIBLE,
MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KPHL.

TONIGHT...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH IFR, POSSIBLY SOME LIFR
CONDITIONS, POSSIBLE AS FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. SOME
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK, MAINLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT, BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FOG OR STRATUS POSSIBLE EARLY ON
SUNDAY...THEN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MID AFTERNOON. LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUR TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON MONDAY...LESS WIND ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF OUR OCEAN FRONT
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE NORTHERNMOST OCEAN ZONE AND THE DELAWARE
BAY ARE CURRENTLY HEADLINE FREE.

THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WINDS WILL 15
TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 4 TO 6
FEET ON THE OCEAN WITH HIGHER SEAS TO THE SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...NO HEADLINES EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS AND WAVES WILL START TO
INCREASE AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 6 FEET EXPECTED AND SHORT PERIOD SWELLS,
IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG
THE NJ COAST.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ451>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...DRAG/KRUZDLO
AVIATION...KRUZDLO/MEOLA
MARINE...KRUZDLO/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201106
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
706 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AS A SOUTHERLY
WIND PROVIDES WARMER TEMPERATURES. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO UPDATES WILL BE NEEDED THIS MORNING AS LATEST OBSERVATIONS
MATCH UP WELL WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST. PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..

SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST
TODAY. THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FIELD AT THE LOWER AND MID-LEVELS
WILL INTENSIFY PUSHING WARM AIR NORTHWARD. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL RESPOND...RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST. PRE-FRONTAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH AND IT WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING A RATHER STABLE ATMOSPHERE. WILL KEEP POPS LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE MORE CLOUDS THAN
PRECIPITATION.

FRONT REACHES WESTERN ZONES BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AND AN IMPRESSIVE WIND
FIELD AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT CONTINUE TO SEE A LACK
OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE CLOUD COVER FROM SATURDAY NIGHTS
SHORTWAVE WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPS. A SIGNIFICANT LINE OF LOW
LEVEL FORCING DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWEST LAYERS INCREASES. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE
CLOUD COVER AND HOW THIS LIMITS SURFACE TEMPS. ADDITIONALLY...ANY
SHOWERS THAT FALL WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL SHORTWAVE WILL COOL THE
ATMOSPHERE...FURTHER DECREASING THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS.

SUNDAY`S FRONT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THE POTENTIAL IS THERE
FOR A STRONGER EVENT...BUT SO ARE THE LIMITING FACTORS. IF A LINE
OF STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPS IT WILL BE DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY.

FRONT PICKS UP SPEED SUNDAY EVENING AS STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STRONG CAA AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW
THE SHORTWAVE. WOULD EXPECT A LARGE STRATOCU DECK TO MOVE OVER THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH A LARGE PART OF MONDAY. ITS
POSSIBLE THAT A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP...SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE SHORTWAVE...AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
MAIN COLD POOL.

WILL GO BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH THE CAA AND CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONDITIONS TODAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING BY LATE THIS MORNING AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
GENERAL RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS A
COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACCOMPANYING THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON FRONT CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG WIND GUSTS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201106
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
706 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AS A SOUTHERLY
WIND PROVIDES WARMER TEMPERATURES. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO UPDATES WILL BE NEEDED THIS MORNING AS LATEST OBSERVATIONS
MATCH UP WELL WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST. PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..

SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST
TODAY. THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FIELD AT THE LOWER AND MID-LEVELS
WILL INTENSIFY PUSHING WARM AIR NORTHWARD. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL RESPOND...RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST. PRE-FRONTAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH AND IT WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING A RATHER STABLE ATMOSPHERE. WILL KEEP POPS LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE MORE CLOUDS THAN
PRECIPITATION.

FRONT REACHES WESTERN ZONES BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AND AN IMPRESSIVE WIND
FIELD AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT CONTINUE TO SEE A LACK
OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE CLOUD COVER FROM SATURDAY NIGHTS
SHORTWAVE WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPS. A SIGNIFICANT LINE OF LOW
LEVEL FORCING DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWEST LAYERS INCREASES. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE
CLOUD COVER AND HOW THIS LIMITS SURFACE TEMPS. ADDITIONALLY...ANY
SHOWERS THAT FALL WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL SHORTWAVE WILL COOL THE
ATMOSPHERE...FURTHER DECREASING THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS.

SUNDAY`S FRONT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THE POTENTIAL IS THERE
FOR A STRONGER EVENT...BUT SO ARE THE LIMITING FACTORS. IF A LINE
OF STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPS IT WILL BE DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY.

FRONT PICKS UP SPEED SUNDAY EVENING AS STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STRONG CAA AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW
THE SHORTWAVE. WOULD EXPECT A LARGE STRATOCU DECK TO MOVE OVER THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH A LARGE PART OF MONDAY. ITS
POSSIBLE THAT A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP...SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE SHORTWAVE...AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
MAIN COLD POOL.

WILL GO BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH THE CAA AND CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONDITIONS TODAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING BY LATE THIS MORNING AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
GENERAL RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS A
COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACCOMPANYING THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON FRONT CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG WIND GUSTS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201053
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
653 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY AND LIFTS NORTH
OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON SUNDAY. A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING
FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE (CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST) WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED OVER THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE SE COAST. THE RESULTANT EASTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN AREAS TODAY...WHILE
WESTERN AREAS WILL ENJOY A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGH RES
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
(20-25%) ACROSS FAR SERN AREAS TODAY...INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS.
DRY ELSEWHERE. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...PLEASANT READINGS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 70S TO LOW 80S
(HIGHEST INLAND).

FOR TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT NE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED IN-BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE
NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL LIMIT SMALL PCPN
CHANCES (~20%) TO FAR SERN AREAS ONCE AGAIN. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR WEST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY EAST. LOWS IN THE MID 50S WEST TO THE
LOW/MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE A DRY AND WARM DAY SUNDAY
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. MEANWHILE...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW QUICKLY MOVES NORTH WELL OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST. WINDS BECOMING W-SW IN ADDITION TO 850 TEMPS
CLIMBING TO AROUND 17C SUNDAY AFTN SHOULD BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

THE COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. THE MODELS SHOW A VERY NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE WITH THE
FRONT AS THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS PA. WITH THE BEST
FORCING TO THE NORTH AND LIMITED MOISTURE...HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AFTER THE FRONT
CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE FA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...AND MAX TEMPS
TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 75-80 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND UNEVENTFUL WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS MEANS A CONTINUATION OF
NE TO E WINDS WHICH MAY HAVE SOME MARINE IMPLICATIONS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK.

A SURFACE TROUGH MAY DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK. MODELS INDICATE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH SOME
OF IT SPREADING INTO OUR AREA. SLGT CHC SHOWERS ARE IN THE FCST ERN
VA/NE NC LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN ENE WIND...WITH SPEEDS OF 8-12KT
ALONG THE COAST...AND 5-8KT INLAND. THE SKY SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR
TO BEGIN THE DAY...WITH 5K FT CIGS POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON
OVER COASTAL SE VA/NE NC. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT...AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
SUNDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA OVER COASTAL SE VA/NE NC
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS OFF THE COAST. A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC
-SHRA AND/OR -TSRA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND PREVAILS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...AN SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND
CURRITUCK SOUND THROUGH 4PM THIS AFTERNOON. OBSERVATIONAL DATA
INDICATES A LOW-END SCA ~20KT ENE WIND HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUTH
OF THE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 4FT WAVES IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A 10-15KT ENE WIND. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE ONSHORE
WIND WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 5-6FT OUT NEAR 20NM. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN ALLOWING THE
WIND TO SHIFT TO N-NE AND DIMINISH TO AOB 10KT. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
~5FT AND HENCE THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE RACES OFF TO THE NE SUNDAY...WITH THE WIND EVENTUALLY
BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A NNE WIND SHOULD
CONTINUE EARLY SUNDAY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS...SO THE SCA FOR
THIS PARTICULAR ZONE HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201053
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
653 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY AND LIFTS NORTH
OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON SUNDAY. A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING
FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE (CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST) WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED OVER THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE SE COAST. THE RESULTANT EASTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN AREAS TODAY...WHILE
WESTERN AREAS WILL ENJOY A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGH RES
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
(20-25%) ACROSS FAR SERN AREAS TODAY...INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS.
DRY ELSEWHERE. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...PLEASANT READINGS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 70S TO LOW 80S
(HIGHEST INLAND).

FOR TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT NE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED IN-BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE
NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL LIMIT SMALL PCPN
CHANCES (~20%) TO FAR SERN AREAS ONCE AGAIN. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR WEST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY EAST. LOWS IN THE MID 50S WEST TO THE
LOW/MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE A DRY AND WARM DAY SUNDAY
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. MEANWHILE...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW QUICKLY MOVES NORTH WELL OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST. WINDS BECOMING W-SW IN ADDITION TO 850 TEMPS
CLIMBING TO AROUND 17C SUNDAY AFTN SHOULD BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

THE COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. THE MODELS SHOW A VERY NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE WITH THE
FRONT AS THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS PA. WITH THE BEST
FORCING TO THE NORTH AND LIMITED MOISTURE...HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AFTER THE FRONT
CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE FA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...AND MAX TEMPS
TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 75-80 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND UNEVENTFUL WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS MEANS A CONTINUATION OF
NE TO E WINDS WHICH MAY HAVE SOME MARINE IMPLICATIONS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK.

A SURFACE TROUGH MAY DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK. MODELS INDICATE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH SOME
OF IT SPREADING INTO OUR AREA. SLGT CHC SHOWERS ARE IN THE FCST ERN
VA/NE NC LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN ENE WIND...WITH SPEEDS OF 8-12KT
ALONG THE COAST...AND 5-8KT INLAND. THE SKY SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR
TO BEGIN THE DAY...WITH 5K FT CIGS POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON
OVER COASTAL SE VA/NE NC. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT...AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
SUNDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA OVER COASTAL SE VA/NE NC
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS OFF THE COAST. A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC
-SHRA AND/OR -TSRA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND PREVAILS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...AN SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND
CURRITUCK SOUND THROUGH 4PM THIS AFTERNOON. OBSERVATIONAL DATA
INDICATES A LOW-END SCA ~20KT ENE WIND HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUTH
OF THE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 4FT WAVES IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A 10-15KT ENE WIND. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE ONSHORE
WIND WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 5-6FT OUT NEAR 20NM. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN ALLOWING THE
WIND TO SHIFT TO N-NE AND DIMINISH TO AOB 10KT. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
~5FT AND HENCE THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE RACES OFF TO THE NE SUNDAY...WITH THE WIND EVENTUALLY
BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A NNE WIND SHOULD
CONTINUE EARLY SUNDAY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS...SO THE SCA FOR
THIS PARTICULAR ZONE HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201053
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
653 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY AND LIFTS NORTH
OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON SUNDAY. A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING
FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE (CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST) WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED OVER THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE SE COAST. THE RESULTANT EASTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN AREAS TODAY...WHILE
WESTERN AREAS WILL ENJOY A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGH RES
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
(20-25%) ACROSS FAR SERN AREAS TODAY...INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS.
DRY ELSEWHERE. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...PLEASANT READINGS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 70S TO LOW 80S
(HIGHEST INLAND).

FOR TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT NE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED IN-BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE
NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL LIMIT SMALL PCPN
CHANCES (~20%) TO FAR SERN AREAS ONCE AGAIN. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR WEST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY EAST. LOWS IN THE MID 50S WEST TO THE
LOW/MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE A DRY AND WARM DAY SUNDAY
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. MEANWHILE...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW QUICKLY MOVES NORTH WELL OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST. WINDS BECOMING W-SW IN ADDITION TO 850 TEMPS
CLIMBING TO AROUND 17C SUNDAY AFTN SHOULD BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

THE COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. THE MODELS SHOW A VERY NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE WITH THE
FRONT AS THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS PA. WITH THE BEST
FORCING TO THE NORTH AND LIMITED MOISTURE...HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AFTER THE FRONT
CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE FA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...AND MAX TEMPS
TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 75-80 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND UNEVENTFUL WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS MEANS A CONTINUATION OF
NE TO E WINDS WHICH MAY HAVE SOME MARINE IMPLICATIONS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK.

A SURFACE TROUGH MAY DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK. MODELS INDICATE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH SOME
OF IT SPREADING INTO OUR AREA. SLGT CHC SHOWERS ARE IN THE FCST ERN
VA/NE NC LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN ENE WIND...WITH SPEEDS OF 8-12KT
ALONG THE COAST...AND 5-8KT INLAND. THE SKY SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR
TO BEGIN THE DAY...WITH 5K FT CIGS POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON
OVER COASTAL SE VA/NE NC. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT...AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
SUNDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA OVER COASTAL SE VA/NE NC
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS OFF THE COAST. A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC
-SHRA AND/OR -TSRA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND PREVAILS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...AN SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND
CURRITUCK SOUND THROUGH 4PM THIS AFTERNOON. OBSERVATIONAL DATA
INDICATES A LOW-END SCA ~20KT ENE WIND HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUTH
OF THE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 4FT WAVES IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A 10-15KT ENE WIND. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE ONSHORE
WIND WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 5-6FT OUT NEAR 20NM. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN ALLOWING THE
WIND TO SHIFT TO N-NE AND DIMINISH TO AOB 10KT. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
~5FT AND HENCE THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE RACES OFF TO THE NE SUNDAY...WITH THE WIND EVENTUALLY
BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A NNE WIND SHOULD
CONTINUE EARLY SUNDAY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS...SO THE SCA FOR
THIS PARTICULAR ZONE HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201053
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
653 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY AND LIFTS NORTH
OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON SUNDAY. A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING
FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE (CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST) WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED OVER THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE SE COAST. THE RESULTANT EASTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN AREAS TODAY...WHILE
WESTERN AREAS WILL ENJOY A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGH RES
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
(20-25%) ACROSS FAR SERN AREAS TODAY...INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS.
DRY ELSEWHERE. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...PLEASANT READINGS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 70S TO LOW 80S
(HIGHEST INLAND).

FOR TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT NE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED IN-BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE
NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL LIMIT SMALL PCPN
CHANCES (~20%) TO FAR SERN AREAS ONCE AGAIN. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR WEST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY EAST. LOWS IN THE MID 50S WEST TO THE
LOW/MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE A DRY AND WARM DAY SUNDAY
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. MEANWHILE...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW QUICKLY MOVES NORTH WELL OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST. WINDS BECOMING W-SW IN ADDITION TO 850 TEMPS
CLIMBING TO AROUND 17C SUNDAY AFTN SHOULD BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

THE COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. THE MODELS SHOW A VERY NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE WITH THE
FRONT AS THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS PA. WITH THE BEST
FORCING TO THE NORTH AND LIMITED MOISTURE...HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AFTER THE FRONT
CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE FA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...AND MAX TEMPS
TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 75-80 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND UNEVENTFUL WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS MEANS A CONTINUATION OF
NE TO E WINDS WHICH MAY HAVE SOME MARINE IMPLICATIONS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK.

A SURFACE TROUGH MAY DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK. MODELS INDICATE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH SOME
OF IT SPREADING INTO OUR AREA. SLGT CHC SHOWERS ARE IN THE FCST ERN
VA/NE NC LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN ENE WIND...WITH SPEEDS OF 8-12KT
ALONG THE COAST...AND 5-8KT INLAND. THE SKY SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR
TO BEGIN THE DAY...WITH 5K FT CIGS POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON
OVER COASTAL SE VA/NE NC. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT...AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
SUNDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA OVER COASTAL SE VA/NE NC
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS OFF THE COAST. A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC
-SHRA AND/OR -TSRA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND PREVAILS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...AN SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND
CURRITUCK SOUND THROUGH 4PM THIS AFTERNOON. OBSERVATIONAL DATA
INDICATES A LOW-END SCA ~20KT ENE WIND HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUTH
OF THE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 4FT WAVES IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A 10-15KT ENE WIND. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE ONSHORE
WIND WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 5-6FT OUT NEAR 20NM. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN ALLOWING THE
WIND TO SHIFT TO N-NE AND DIMINISH TO AOB 10KT. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
~5FT AND HENCE THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE RACES OFF TO THE NE SUNDAY...WITH THE WIND EVENTUALLY
BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A NNE WIND SHOULD
CONTINUE EARLY SUNDAY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS...SO THE SCA FOR
THIS PARTICULAR ZONE HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200807
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
407 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AS A SOUTHERLY
WIND PROVIDES WARMER TEMPERATURES. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST
TODAY. THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FIELD AT THE LOWER AND MID-LEVELS
WILL INTENSIFY PUSHING WARM AIR NORTHWARD. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL RESPOND...RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST. PRE-FRONTAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH AND IT WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING A RATHER STABLE ATMOSPHERE. WILL KEEP POPS LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE MORE CLOUDS THAN
PRECIPITATION.

FRONT REACHES WESTERN ZONES BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AND AN IMPRESSIVE WIND
FIELD AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT CONTINUE TO SEE A LACK
OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE CLOUD COVER FROM SATURDAY NIGHTS
SHORTWAVE WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPS. A SIGNIFICANT LINE OF LOW
LEVEL FORCING DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWEST LAYERS INCREASES. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE
CLOUD COVER AND HOW THIS LIMITS SURFACE TEMPS. ADDITIONALLY...ANY
SHOWERS THAT FALL WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL SHORTWAVE WILL COOL THE
ATMOSPHERE...FURTHER DECREASING THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS.

SUNDAY`S FRONT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THE POTENTIAL IS THERE
FOR A STRONGER EVENT...BUT SO ARE THE LIMITING FACTORS. IF A LINE
OF STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPS IT WILL BE DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY.

FRONT PICKS UP SPEED SUNDAY EVENING AS STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STRONG CAA AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW
THE SHORTWAVE. WOULD EXPECT A LARGE STRATOCU DECK TO MOVE OVER THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH A LARGE PART OF MONDAY. ITS
POSSIBLE THAT A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP...SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE SHORTWAVE...AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
MAIN COLD POOL.

WILL GO BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH THE CAA AND CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH EXCEPT FOR POTENTIAL ST/SC AT FKL AND DUJ IN THE PREDAWN...VFR
CONDITIONS WL CONT WITH SFC WIND PRECLUDING FOG WHILE VEERING TO
THE SOUTH...AND GUSTING NR 20 KT BY SAT AFTN.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
GENERAL RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH A SUNDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200807
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
407 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AS A SOUTHERLY
WIND PROVIDES WARMER TEMPERATURES. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST
TODAY. THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FIELD AT THE LOWER AND MID-LEVELS
WILL INTENSIFY PUSHING WARM AIR NORTHWARD. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL RESPOND...RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST. PRE-FRONTAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH AND IT WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING A RATHER STABLE ATMOSPHERE. WILL KEEP POPS LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE MORE CLOUDS THAN
PRECIPITATION.

FRONT REACHES WESTERN ZONES BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AND AN IMPRESSIVE WIND
FIELD AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT CONTINUE TO SEE A LACK
OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE CLOUD COVER FROM SATURDAY NIGHTS
SHORTWAVE WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPS. A SIGNIFICANT LINE OF LOW
LEVEL FORCING DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWEST LAYERS INCREASES. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE
CLOUD COVER AND HOW THIS LIMITS SURFACE TEMPS. ADDITIONALLY...ANY
SHOWERS THAT FALL WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL SHORTWAVE WILL COOL THE
ATMOSPHERE...FURTHER DECREASING THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS.

SUNDAY`S FRONT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THE POTENTIAL IS THERE
FOR A STRONGER EVENT...BUT SO ARE THE LIMITING FACTORS. IF A LINE
OF STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPS IT WILL BE DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY.

FRONT PICKS UP SPEED SUNDAY EVENING AS STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STRONG CAA AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW
THE SHORTWAVE. WOULD EXPECT A LARGE STRATOCU DECK TO MOVE OVER THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH A LARGE PART OF MONDAY. ITS
POSSIBLE THAT A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP...SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE SHORTWAVE...AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
MAIN COLD POOL.

WILL GO BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH THE CAA AND CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH EXCEPT FOR POTENTIAL ST/SC AT FKL AND DUJ IN THE PREDAWN...VFR
CONDITIONS WL CONT WITH SFC WIND PRECLUDING FOG WHILE VEERING TO
THE SOUTH...AND GUSTING NR 20 KT BY SAT AFTN.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
GENERAL RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH A SUNDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200807
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
407 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AS A SOUTHERLY
WIND PROVIDES WARMER TEMPERATURES. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST
TODAY. THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FIELD AT THE LOWER AND MID-LEVELS
WILL INTENSIFY PUSHING WARM AIR NORTHWARD. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL RESPOND...RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST. PRE-FRONTAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH AND IT WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING A RATHER STABLE ATMOSPHERE. WILL KEEP POPS LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE MORE CLOUDS THAN
PRECIPITATION.

FRONT REACHES WESTERN ZONES BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AND AN IMPRESSIVE WIND
FIELD AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT CONTINUE TO SEE A LACK
OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE CLOUD COVER FROM SATURDAY NIGHTS
SHORTWAVE WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPS. A SIGNIFICANT LINE OF LOW
LEVEL FORCING DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWEST LAYERS INCREASES. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE
CLOUD COVER AND HOW THIS LIMITS SURFACE TEMPS. ADDITIONALLY...ANY
SHOWERS THAT FALL WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL SHORTWAVE WILL COOL THE
ATMOSPHERE...FURTHER DECREASING THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS.

SUNDAY`S FRONT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THE POTENTIAL IS THERE
FOR A STRONGER EVENT...BUT SO ARE THE LIMITING FACTORS. IF A LINE
OF STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPS IT WILL BE DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY.

FRONT PICKS UP SPEED SUNDAY EVENING AS STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STRONG CAA AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW
THE SHORTWAVE. WOULD EXPECT A LARGE STRATOCU DECK TO MOVE OVER THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH A LARGE PART OF MONDAY. ITS
POSSIBLE THAT A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP...SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE SHORTWAVE...AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
MAIN COLD POOL.

WILL GO BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH THE CAA AND CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH EXCEPT FOR POTENTIAL ST/SC AT FKL AND DUJ IN THE PREDAWN...VFR
CONDITIONS WL CONT WITH SFC WIND PRECLUDING FOG WHILE VEERING TO
THE SOUTH...AND GUSTING NR 20 KT BY SAT AFTN.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
GENERAL RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH A SUNDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200807
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
407 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AS A SOUTHERLY
WIND PROVIDES WARMER TEMPERATURES. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST
TODAY. THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FIELD AT THE LOWER AND MID-LEVELS
WILL INTENSIFY PUSHING WARM AIR NORTHWARD. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL RESPOND...RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST. PRE-FRONTAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH AND IT WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING A RATHER STABLE ATMOSPHERE. WILL KEEP POPS LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE MORE CLOUDS THAN
PRECIPITATION.

FRONT REACHES WESTERN ZONES BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AND AN IMPRESSIVE WIND
FIELD AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT CONTINUE TO SEE A LACK
OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE CLOUD COVER FROM SATURDAY NIGHTS
SHORTWAVE WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPS. A SIGNIFICANT LINE OF LOW
LEVEL FORCING DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWEST LAYERS INCREASES. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE
CLOUD COVER AND HOW THIS LIMITS SURFACE TEMPS. ADDITIONALLY...ANY
SHOWERS THAT FALL WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL SHORTWAVE WILL COOL THE
ATMOSPHERE...FURTHER DECREASING THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS.

SUNDAY`S FRONT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THE POTENTIAL IS THERE
FOR A STRONGER EVENT...BUT SO ARE THE LIMITING FACTORS. IF A LINE
OF STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPS IT WILL BE DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY.

FRONT PICKS UP SPEED SUNDAY EVENING AS STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STRONG CAA AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW
THE SHORTWAVE. WOULD EXPECT A LARGE STRATOCU DECK TO MOVE OVER THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH A LARGE PART OF MONDAY. ITS
POSSIBLE THAT A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP...SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE SHORTWAVE...AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
MAIN COLD POOL.

WILL GO BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH THE CAA AND CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH EXCEPT FOR POTENTIAL ST/SC AT FKL AND DUJ IN THE PREDAWN...VFR
CONDITIONS WL CONT WITH SFC WIND PRECLUDING FOG WHILE VEERING TO
THE SOUTH...AND GUSTING NR 20 KT BY SAT AFTN.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
GENERAL RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH A SUNDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 200757
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
357 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO RIDE UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. AT THE
SAME TIME, A COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES,
WILL TRACK EAST AND PASS OFF THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL START TO GET SQUEEZED BETWEEN TWO LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS, A LOW BRINGING A COLD FRONT IN FROM THE WEST AND A
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY PUSH UP THE CAROLINA COAST.

LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY START TO BREAK UP THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE ISSUE WITH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON JUST HOW LONG
THE CLOUDS HANG AROUND COMBINED WITH A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW, AS
OPPOSED TO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AS WE HEAD INTO FALL, WE START TO
LOSE THAT STRONG SUN ANGLE AND IT TAKES LONGER FOR LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG TO BREAK UP. WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE AND INCREASING
MOISTURE, IT MAY TAKE A WHILE BEFORE WE SEE SOME BLUE PEEKING OUT IN
THE SKY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. IN ADDITION, THE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WON`T BE ABLE TO TAP INTO QUITE AS MUCH WARM AIR
AND COULD CERTAINLY LIMIT THE MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY. HOWEVER, THE SUN
IS STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO WARM THE SURFACE SHOULD WE BE ABLE TO
BREAK OUT. AREAS THAT SEE MORE SUN WILL WARM UP A BIT MORE. IN
GENERAL, TEMPERATURES WILL BE INTO THE 70S THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
INCREASE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE TO
REACH THE COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BUT, FOR THE MOST PART, IT
LOOKS TO REMAIN MORE OFFSHORE AND WE SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY. IN ANY
EVENT, IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME STRATUS AND FOG WILL START TO FORM
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND, TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COOL
AS THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. EXPECT LOWS TO REMAIN UPPER 50S NORTH
AND WEST OF PHILADELPHIA AND MAINLY AROUND 60 INTO THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE FEATURES...LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME, A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. BY MONDAY MORNING, THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
OFF THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO BE BROAD, STRETCHING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC, THEN TO DOWN EAST MAINE ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

PRECIPITATION...ONLY ONE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS ISSUANCE,
AND THAT`S WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES...AT OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY NEAR NORMAL READINGS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AT
OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED LATER IN THE
WEEK.

WINDS...OTHER THAN SOME BREEZY NORTH WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON
MONDAY, WINDS WILL BE BENIGN THROUGH THE PERIOD.

IMPACTS...EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRYNESS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH THIS MORNING...MVFR CEILINGS ARE PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST
AND ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING. WE
ARE SEEING CEILINGS BOUNCE UP AND DOWN BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR AND
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE. A COUPLE LOCALES MAY DROP TO IFR FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD THIS MORNING BEFORE CEILINGS START TO LIFT.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD NOT DROP TOO MUCH IN THE STRATOCU BUT A FEW
SPOTS MAY SEE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING.

TODAY...MVFR CEILINGS WILL HANG AROUND A BIT, FINALLY STARTING
TO BREAK UP BY EARLY AFTERNOON. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AT JUST HOW
LONG WE HOLD ONTO THE LOWER CEILINGS AS THIS TIME OF YEAR, THE SUN
ANGLE ISN`T AS HIGH. WINDS WILL START TO PICK UP A BIT OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST. A BRIEF SHOWER REMAINS POSSIBLE, MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF KPHL.

TONIGHT...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH IFR, POSSIBLY SOME LIFR
CONDITIONS, POSSIBLE AS FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. SOME
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK, MAINLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT, BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FOG OR STRATUS POSSIBLE EARLY ON
SUNDAY...THEN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MID AFTERNOON. LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUR TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON MONDAY...LESS WIND ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF OUR OCEAN FRONT
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE NORTHERNMOST OCEAN ZONE AND THE DELAWARE
BAY ARE CURRENTLY HEADLINE FREE.

THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WINDS WILL 15
TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 4 TO 6
FEET ON THE OCEAN WITH HIGHER SEAS TO THE SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...NO HEADLINES EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS AND WAVES WILL START TO
INCREASE AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 6 FEET EXPECTED AND SHORT PERIOD SWELLS,
IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG
THE NJ COAST.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ451>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...DRAG/KRUZDLO
AVIATION...KRUZDLO/MEOLA
MARINE...KRUZDLO/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...MEOLA





000
FXUS61 KPHI 200757
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
357 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO RIDE UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. AT THE
SAME TIME, A COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES,
WILL TRACK EAST AND PASS OFF THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL START TO GET SQUEEZED BETWEEN TWO LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS, A LOW BRINGING A COLD FRONT IN FROM THE WEST AND A
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY PUSH UP THE CAROLINA COAST.

LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY START TO BREAK UP THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE ISSUE WITH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON JUST HOW LONG
THE CLOUDS HANG AROUND COMBINED WITH A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW, AS
OPPOSED TO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AS WE HEAD INTO FALL, WE START TO
LOSE THAT STRONG SUN ANGLE AND IT TAKES LONGER FOR LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG TO BREAK UP. WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE AND INCREASING
MOISTURE, IT MAY TAKE A WHILE BEFORE WE SEE SOME BLUE PEEKING OUT IN
THE SKY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. IN ADDITION, THE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WON`T BE ABLE TO TAP INTO QUITE AS MUCH WARM AIR
AND COULD CERTAINLY LIMIT THE MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY. HOWEVER, THE SUN
IS STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO WARM THE SURFACE SHOULD WE BE ABLE TO
BREAK OUT. AREAS THAT SEE MORE SUN WILL WARM UP A BIT MORE. IN
GENERAL, TEMPERATURES WILL BE INTO THE 70S THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
INCREASE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE TO
REACH THE COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BUT, FOR THE MOST PART, IT
LOOKS TO REMAIN MORE OFFSHORE AND WE SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY. IN ANY
EVENT, IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME STRATUS AND FOG WILL START TO FORM
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND, TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COOL
AS THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. EXPECT LOWS TO REMAIN UPPER 50S NORTH
AND WEST OF PHILADELPHIA AND MAINLY AROUND 60 INTO THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE FEATURES...LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME, A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. BY MONDAY MORNING, THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
OFF THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO BE BROAD, STRETCHING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC, THEN TO DOWN EAST MAINE ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

PRECIPITATION...ONLY ONE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS ISSUANCE,
AND THAT`S WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES...AT OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY NEAR NORMAL READINGS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AT
OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED LATER IN THE
WEEK.

WINDS...OTHER THAN SOME BREEZY NORTH WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON
MONDAY, WINDS WILL BE BENIGN THROUGH THE PERIOD.

IMPACTS...EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRYNESS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH THIS MORNING...MVFR CEILINGS ARE PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST
AND ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING. WE
ARE SEEING CEILINGS BOUNCE UP AND DOWN BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR AND
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE. A COUPLE LOCALES MAY DROP TO IFR FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD THIS MORNING BEFORE CEILINGS START TO LIFT.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD NOT DROP TOO MUCH IN THE STRATOCU BUT A FEW
SPOTS MAY SEE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING.

TODAY...MVFR CEILINGS WILL HANG AROUND A BIT, FINALLY STARTING
TO BREAK UP BY EARLY AFTERNOON. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AT JUST HOW
LONG WE HOLD ONTO THE LOWER CEILINGS AS THIS TIME OF YEAR, THE SUN
ANGLE ISN`T AS HIGH. WINDS WILL START TO PICK UP A BIT OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST. A BRIEF SHOWER REMAINS POSSIBLE, MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF KPHL.

TONIGHT...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH IFR, POSSIBLY SOME LIFR
CONDITIONS, POSSIBLE AS FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. SOME
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK, MAINLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT, BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FOG OR STRATUS POSSIBLE EARLY ON
SUNDAY...THEN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MID AFTERNOON. LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUR TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON MONDAY...LESS WIND ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF OUR OCEAN FRONT
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE NORTHERNMOST OCEAN ZONE AND THE DELAWARE
BAY ARE CURRENTLY HEADLINE FREE.

THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WINDS WILL 15
TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 4 TO 6
FEET ON THE OCEAN WITH HIGHER SEAS TO THE SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...NO HEADLINES EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS AND WAVES WILL START TO
INCREASE AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 6 FEET EXPECTED AND SHORT PERIOD SWELLS,
IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG
THE NJ COAST.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ451>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...DRAG/KRUZDLO
AVIATION...KRUZDLO/MEOLA
MARINE...KRUZDLO/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...MEOLA





000
FXUS61 KPHI 200757
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
357 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO RIDE UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. AT THE
SAME TIME, A COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES,
WILL TRACK EAST AND PASS OFF THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL START TO GET SQUEEZED BETWEEN TWO LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS, A LOW BRINGING A COLD FRONT IN FROM THE WEST AND A
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY PUSH UP THE CAROLINA COAST.

LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY START TO BREAK UP THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE ISSUE WITH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON JUST HOW LONG
THE CLOUDS HANG AROUND COMBINED WITH A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW, AS
OPPOSED TO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AS WE HEAD INTO FALL, WE START TO
LOSE THAT STRONG SUN ANGLE AND IT TAKES LONGER FOR LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG TO BREAK UP. WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE AND INCREASING
MOISTURE, IT MAY TAKE A WHILE BEFORE WE SEE SOME BLUE PEEKING OUT IN
THE SKY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. IN ADDITION, THE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WON`T BE ABLE TO TAP INTO QUITE AS MUCH WARM AIR
AND COULD CERTAINLY LIMIT THE MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY. HOWEVER, THE SUN
IS STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO WARM THE SURFACE SHOULD WE BE ABLE TO
BREAK OUT. AREAS THAT SEE MORE SUN WILL WARM UP A BIT MORE. IN
GENERAL, TEMPERATURES WILL BE INTO THE 70S THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
INCREASE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE TO
REACH THE COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BUT, FOR THE MOST PART, IT
LOOKS TO REMAIN MORE OFFSHORE AND WE SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY. IN ANY
EVENT, IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME STRATUS AND FOG WILL START TO FORM
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND, TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COOL
AS THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. EXPECT LOWS TO REMAIN UPPER 50S NORTH
AND WEST OF PHILADELPHIA AND MAINLY AROUND 60 INTO THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE FEATURES...LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME, A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. BY MONDAY MORNING, THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
OFF THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO BE BROAD, STRETCHING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC, THEN TO DOWN EAST MAINE ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

PRECIPITATION...ONLY ONE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS ISSUANCE,
AND THAT`S WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES...AT OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY NEAR NORMAL READINGS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AT
OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED LATER IN THE
WEEK.

WINDS...OTHER THAN SOME BREEZY NORTH WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON
MONDAY, WINDS WILL BE BENIGN THROUGH THE PERIOD.

IMPACTS...EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRYNESS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH THIS MORNING...MVFR CEILINGS ARE PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST
AND ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING. WE
ARE SEEING CEILINGS BOUNCE UP AND DOWN BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR AND
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE. A COUPLE LOCALES MAY DROP TO IFR FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD THIS MORNING BEFORE CEILINGS START TO LIFT.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD NOT DROP TOO MUCH IN THE STRATOCU BUT A FEW
SPOTS MAY SEE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING.

TODAY...MVFR CEILINGS WILL HANG AROUND A BIT, FINALLY STARTING
TO BREAK UP BY EARLY AFTERNOON. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AT JUST HOW
LONG WE HOLD ONTO THE LOWER CEILINGS AS THIS TIME OF YEAR, THE SUN
ANGLE ISN`T AS HIGH. WINDS WILL START TO PICK UP A BIT OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST. A BRIEF SHOWER REMAINS POSSIBLE, MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF KPHL.

TONIGHT...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH IFR, POSSIBLY SOME LIFR
CONDITIONS, POSSIBLE AS FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. SOME
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK, MAINLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT, BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FOG OR STRATUS POSSIBLE EARLY ON
SUNDAY...THEN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MID AFTERNOON. LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUR TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON MONDAY...LESS WIND ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF OUR OCEAN FRONT
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE NORTHERNMOST OCEAN ZONE AND THE DELAWARE
BAY ARE CURRENTLY HEADLINE FREE.

THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WINDS WILL 15
TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 4 TO 6
FEET ON THE OCEAN WITH HIGHER SEAS TO THE SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...NO HEADLINES EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS AND WAVES WILL START TO
INCREASE AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 6 FEET EXPECTED AND SHORT PERIOD SWELLS,
IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG
THE NJ COAST.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ451>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...DRAG/KRUZDLO
AVIATION...KRUZDLO/MEOLA
MARINE...KRUZDLO/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...MEOLA





000
FXUS61 KPHI 200757
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
357 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO RIDE UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. AT THE
SAME TIME, A COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES,
WILL TRACK EAST AND PASS OFF THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL START TO GET SQUEEZED BETWEEN TWO LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS, A LOW BRINGING A COLD FRONT IN FROM THE WEST AND A
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY PUSH UP THE CAROLINA COAST.

LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY START TO BREAK UP THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE ISSUE WITH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON JUST HOW LONG
THE CLOUDS HANG AROUND COMBINED WITH A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW, AS
OPPOSED TO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AS WE HEAD INTO FALL, WE START TO
LOSE THAT STRONG SUN ANGLE AND IT TAKES LONGER FOR LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG TO BREAK UP. WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE AND INCREASING
MOISTURE, IT MAY TAKE A WHILE BEFORE WE SEE SOME BLUE PEEKING OUT IN
THE SKY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. IN ADDITION, THE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WON`T BE ABLE TO TAP INTO QUITE AS MUCH WARM AIR
AND COULD CERTAINLY LIMIT THE MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY. HOWEVER, THE SUN
IS STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO WARM THE SURFACE SHOULD WE BE ABLE TO
BREAK OUT. AREAS THAT SEE MORE SUN WILL WARM UP A BIT MORE. IN
GENERAL, TEMPERATURES WILL BE INTO THE 70S THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
INCREASE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE TO
REACH THE COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BUT, FOR THE MOST PART, IT
LOOKS TO REMAIN MORE OFFSHORE AND WE SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY. IN ANY
EVENT, IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME STRATUS AND FOG WILL START TO FORM
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND, TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COOL
AS THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. EXPECT LOWS TO REMAIN UPPER 50S NORTH
AND WEST OF PHILADELPHIA AND MAINLY AROUND 60 INTO THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE FEATURES...LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME, A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. BY MONDAY MORNING, THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
OFF THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO BE BROAD, STRETCHING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC, THEN TO DOWN EAST MAINE ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

PRECIPITATION...ONLY ONE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS ISSUANCE,
AND THAT`S WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES...AT OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY NEAR NORMAL READINGS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AT
OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED LATER IN THE
WEEK.

WINDS...OTHER THAN SOME BREEZY NORTH WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON
MONDAY, WINDS WILL BE BENIGN THROUGH THE PERIOD.

IMPACTS...EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRYNESS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH THIS MORNING...MVFR CEILINGS ARE PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST
AND ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING. WE
ARE SEEING CEILINGS BOUNCE UP AND DOWN BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR AND
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE. A COUPLE LOCALES MAY DROP TO IFR FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD THIS MORNING BEFORE CEILINGS START TO LIFT.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD NOT DROP TOO MUCH IN THE STRATOCU BUT A FEW
SPOTS MAY SEE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING.

TODAY...MVFR CEILINGS WILL HANG AROUND A BIT, FINALLY STARTING
TO BREAK UP BY EARLY AFTERNOON. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AT JUST HOW
LONG WE HOLD ONTO THE LOWER CEILINGS AS THIS TIME OF YEAR, THE SUN
ANGLE ISN`T AS HIGH. WINDS WILL START TO PICK UP A BIT OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST. A BRIEF SHOWER REMAINS POSSIBLE, MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF KPHL.

TONIGHT...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH IFR, POSSIBLY SOME LIFR
CONDITIONS, POSSIBLE AS FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. SOME
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK, MAINLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT, BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FOG OR STRATUS POSSIBLE EARLY ON
SUNDAY...THEN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MID AFTERNOON. LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUR TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON MONDAY...LESS WIND ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF OUR OCEAN FRONT
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE NORTHERNMOST OCEAN ZONE AND THE DELAWARE
BAY ARE CURRENTLY HEADLINE FREE.

THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WINDS WILL 15
TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 4 TO 6
FEET ON THE OCEAN WITH HIGHER SEAS TO THE SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...NO HEADLINES EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS AND WAVES WILL START TO
INCREASE AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 6 FEET EXPECTED AND SHORT PERIOD SWELLS,
IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG
THE NJ COAST.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ451>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...DRAG/KRUZDLO
AVIATION...KRUZDLO/MEOLA
MARINE...KRUZDLO/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...MEOLA





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200751
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
351 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY AND LIFTS NORTH
OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON SUNDAY. A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING
FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE (CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST) WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED OVER THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE SE COAST. THE RESULTANT EASTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN AREAS TODAY...WHILE
WESTERN AREAS WILL ENJOY A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGH RES
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
(~20%) ACROSS FAR SERN AREAS TODAY...INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS.
DRY ELSEWHERE. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...PLEASANT READINGS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 70S TO LOW 80S
(HIGHEST INLAND).

FOR TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT NE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED IN-BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE
NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL LIMIT SMALL PCPN
CHANCES (~20%) TO FAR SERN AREAS ONCE AGAIN. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR WEST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY EAST. LOWS IN THE MID 50S WEST TO THE
LOW/MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE A DRY AND WARM DAY SUNDAY
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. MEANWHILE...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW QUICKLY MOVES NORTH WELL OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST. WINDS BECOMING W-SW IN ADDITION TO 850 TEMPS
CLIMBING TO AROUND 17C SUNDAY AFTN SHOULD BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

THE COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. THE MODELS SHOW A VERY NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE WITH THE
FRONT AS THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS PA. WITH THE BEST
FORCING TO THE NORTH AND LIMITED MOISTURE...HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AFTER THE FRONT
CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE FA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...AND MAX TEMPS
TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 75-80 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND UNEVENTFUL WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS MEANS A CONTINUATION OF
NE TO E WINDS WHICH MAY HAVE SOME MARINE IMPLICATIONS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK.

A SURFACE TROUGH MAY DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK. MODELS INDICATE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH SOME
OF IT SPREADING INTO OUR AREA. SLGT CHC SHOWERS ARE IN THE FCST ERN
VA/NE NC LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN ENE WIND...WITH SPEEDS OF 8-12KT
ALONG THE COAST...AND 5-8KT INLAND. THE SKY SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR
TO BEGIN THE DAY...WITH 5K FT CIGS POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON
OVER COASTAL SE VA/NE NC. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT...AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
SUNDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA OVER COASTAL SE VA/NE NC
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS OFF THE COAST. A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC
-SHRA AND/OR -TSRA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND PREVAILS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A 10-15KT ENE WIND. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE ONSHORE
WIND WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 5-6FT OUT NEAR 20NM. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN ALLOWING THE
WIND TO SHIFT TO N-NE AND DIMINISH TO AOB 10KT. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
~5FT AND HENCE THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE RACES OFF TO THE NE SUNDAY...WITH THE WIND EVENTUALLY
BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A NNE WIND SHOULD
CONTINUE EARLY SUNDAY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS...SO THE SCA FOR
THIS PARTICULAR ZONE HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200751
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
351 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY AND LIFTS NORTH
OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON SUNDAY. A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING
FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE (CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST) WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED OVER THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE SE COAST. THE RESULTANT EASTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN AREAS TODAY...WHILE
WESTERN AREAS WILL ENJOY A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGH RES
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
(~20%) ACROSS FAR SERN AREAS TODAY...INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS.
DRY ELSEWHERE. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...PLEASANT READINGS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 70S TO LOW 80S
(HIGHEST INLAND).

FOR TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT NE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED IN-BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE
NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL LIMIT SMALL PCPN
CHANCES (~20%) TO FAR SERN AREAS ONCE AGAIN. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR WEST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY EAST. LOWS IN THE MID 50S WEST TO THE
LOW/MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE A DRY AND WARM DAY SUNDAY
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. MEANWHILE...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW QUICKLY MOVES NORTH WELL OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST. WINDS BECOMING W-SW IN ADDITION TO 850 TEMPS
CLIMBING TO AROUND 17C SUNDAY AFTN SHOULD BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

THE COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. THE MODELS SHOW A VERY NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE WITH THE
FRONT AS THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS PA. WITH THE BEST
FORCING TO THE NORTH AND LIMITED MOISTURE...HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AFTER THE FRONT
CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE FA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...AND MAX TEMPS
TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 75-80 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND UNEVENTFUL WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS MEANS A CONTINUATION OF
NE TO E WINDS WHICH MAY HAVE SOME MARINE IMPLICATIONS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK.

A SURFACE TROUGH MAY DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK. MODELS INDICATE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH SOME
OF IT SPREADING INTO OUR AREA. SLGT CHC SHOWERS ARE IN THE FCST ERN
VA/NE NC LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN ENE WIND...WITH SPEEDS OF 8-12KT
ALONG THE COAST...AND 5-8KT INLAND. THE SKY SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR
TO BEGIN THE DAY...WITH 5K FT CIGS POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON
OVER COASTAL SE VA/NE NC. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT...AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
SUNDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA OVER COASTAL SE VA/NE NC
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS OFF THE COAST. A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC
-SHRA AND/OR -TSRA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND PREVAILS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A 10-15KT ENE WIND. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE ONSHORE
WIND WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 5-6FT OUT NEAR 20NM. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN ALLOWING THE
WIND TO SHIFT TO N-NE AND DIMINISH TO AOB 10KT. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
~5FT AND HENCE THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE RACES OFF TO THE NE SUNDAY...WITH THE WIND EVENTUALLY
BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A NNE WIND SHOULD
CONTINUE EARLY SUNDAY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS...SO THE SCA FOR
THIS PARTICULAR ZONE HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ






000
FXUS61 KLWX 200726
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
326 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE
RAPIDLY EAST OUT TO SEA. MEANWHILE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
HELP USHER THAT HIGH OUT. ONE WILL FORM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
AND PASS NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA...PAST CAPE HATTERAS SUNDAY. THE
SECOND LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES AND WILL
SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND DURING MONDAY AND IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
EAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS...INCLUDING SOME
LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY JUST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND CATOCTINS
WHERE THE MOISTURE WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE RIDGE THIS MORNING.
PATCHY FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE EAST FLOW WEAKENS AS THE HIGH SLIPS AWAY...EXPECT ANY
MORNING OVERCAST TO BREAK BY LATE MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE
SEASONABLE TODAY AND A LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT...BUT MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTH
WILL BE MEAGER. STILL...THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FORCING THE COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE PRETTY STRONG BY THE MODELS AND THAT
SHOULD IN TURN FORCE NARROW BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GUSTY OR PERHAPS SPOTTY DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS WHERE ADDED TERRAIN FORCING COULD RESULT IN BRIEFLY
MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY WANE AS THEY PUSH EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND TOWARDS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY DURING THE
EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE WEEK AHEAD SHOULD BE QUIET AND COOL...AS A LARGE AREA OF
HIPRES BLDS OVER THE ERN CONUS. MAY BE A LTL BIT BRZY MON DUE TO
CAA/H5 TROF AXIS DROPPING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AFTER
THAT...UPR HGTS RISE BUT AREA WL REMAIN ON THE ERN THEN SRN SIDE
OF THE SFC RDG. CONSEQUENCES WL BE CNDN FLOW TO BE REPLACED BY
MARINE FLOW BY WED. CUD BE DEALING W/ A LTL MORE CLDCVR FOR THE
2ND HALF OF THE WK... SPCLY E OF I-95. MAXT LWR-MID 70S THRUT THE
PD. MIN-T 40S TO LWR/MID 50S...WITH OVNGT TEMPS MODERATING SLGTLY
DUE TO WATER TEMPS...WHICH ARE STILL IN THE LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS DRAGGED OFF THE ATLANTIC BY EAST
FLOW...ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT DCA WILL BE BATTLING POSSIBLE MVFR
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. IFR NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ANY LOWERED VSBYS AND CIGS SHOULD BREAK
THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT CROSSES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD HAVE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

VFR MON-WED UNDER HIPRES.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONGER WINDS LATE FRIDAY HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY
AGAIN BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

NW FLOW SHUD PROVIDE A GOOD MIXED PROFILE MON. MAY HV SOME SCA GUSTS
AT THAT TIME. BYD THAT...HIPRES WL BE BLDG ATOP MARINE AREA
RESULTING IN WNDS BECOMING LIGHTER. FLOW SHUD BE VEERING ELY BY WED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH LUNAR TIDES AND EAST WINDS ARE CREATING HIGHER THAN NORMAL
TIDES. AT THIS POINT HIGHER ANAMOIES ARE IN THE SOUTHERN CHES BAY.
AS WINDS BECOME MORE SE OVER THE WATERS...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING THE NEXT SEVERAL TIDES. MOST CONCERNING AT
THE MOMENT IS DC WATERFRONT TIDE GAUGE WHICH COULD POSSIBLY HIT
MINOR FLOODING WITH THIS MORNINGS TIDE. THE REST ARE FINE FOR NOW.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CAS
NEAR TERM...CAS
SHORT TERM...CAS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...CAS/HTS
MARINE...CAS/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...CAS





000
FXUS61 KLWX 200726
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
326 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE
RAPIDLY EAST OUT TO SEA. MEANWHILE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
HELP USHER THAT HIGH OUT. ONE WILL FORM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
AND PASS NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA...PAST CAPE HATTERAS SUNDAY. THE
SECOND LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES AND WILL
SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND DURING MONDAY AND IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
EAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS...INCLUDING SOME
LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY JUST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND CATOCTINS
WHERE THE MOISTURE WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE RIDGE THIS MORNING.
PATCHY FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE EAST FLOW WEAKENS AS THE HIGH SLIPS AWAY...EXPECT ANY
MORNING OVERCAST TO BREAK BY LATE MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE
SEASONABLE TODAY AND A LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT...BUT MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTH
WILL BE MEAGER. STILL...THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FORCING THE COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE PRETTY STRONG BY THE MODELS AND THAT
SHOULD IN TURN FORCE NARROW BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GUSTY OR PERHAPS SPOTTY DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS WHERE ADDED TERRAIN FORCING COULD RESULT IN BRIEFLY
MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY WANE AS THEY PUSH EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND TOWARDS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY DURING THE
EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE WEEK AHEAD SHOULD BE QUIET AND COOL...AS A LARGE AREA OF
HIPRES BLDS OVER THE ERN CONUS. MAY BE A LTL BIT BRZY MON DUE TO
CAA/H5 TROF AXIS DROPPING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AFTER
THAT...UPR HGTS RISE BUT AREA WL REMAIN ON THE ERN THEN SRN SIDE
OF THE SFC RDG. CONSEQUENCES WL BE CNDN FLOW TO BE REPLACED BY
MARINE FLOW BY WED. CUD BE DEALING W/ A LTL MORE CLDCVR FOR THE
2ND HALF OF THE WK... SPCLY E OF I-95. MAXT LWR-MID 70S THRUT THE
PD. MIN-T 40S TO LWR/MID 50S...WITH OVNGT TEMPS MODERATING SLGTLY
DUE TO WATER TEMPS...WHICH ARE STILL IN THE LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS DRAGGED OFF THE ATLANTIC BY EAST
FLOW...ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT DCA WILL BE BATTLING POSSIBLE MVFR
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. IFR NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ANY LOWERED VSBYS AND CIGS SHOULD BREAK
THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT CROSSES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD HAVE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

VFR MON-WED UNDER HIPRES.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONGER WINDS LATE FRIDAY HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY
AGAIN BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

NW FLOW SHUD PROVIDE A GOOD MIXED PROFILE MON. MAY HV SOME SCA GUSTS
AT THAT TIME. BYD THAT...HIPRES WL BE BLDG ATOP MARINE AREA
RESULTING IN WNDS BECOMING LIGHTER. FLOW SHUD BE VEERING ELY BY WED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH LUNAR TIDES AND EAST WINDS ARE CREATING HIGHER THAN NORMAL
TIDES. AT THIS POINT HIGHER ANAMOIES ARE IN THE SOUTHERN CHES BAY.
AS WINDS BECOME MORE SE OVER THE WATERS...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING THE NEXT SEVERAL TIDES. MOST CONCERNING AT
THE MOMENT IS DC WATERFRONT TIDE GAUGE WHICH COULD POSSIBLY HIT
MINOR FLOODING WITH THIS MORNINGS TIDE. THE REST ARE FINE FOR NOW.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CAS
NEAR TERM...CAS
SHORT TERM...CAS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...CAS/HTS
MARINE...CAS/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...CAS






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200602
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
202 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ON SATURDAY AND
LIFTS UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON SUNDAY. A QUICK MOVING COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SFC HI PRES RMNS CENTERED OVR EXTREME ERN NEW ENG. LO LVL FLO RMNS
FM THE ENE...AND BKN CLDNS TRAPPED BLO INVERSION (MNLY INLAND).
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ENTIRE FCST PACKAGE FOR OVRNGT HRS. MOST LO
TEMPS L/M50S INLAND TO L60S RIGHT AT THE CST.

ON SATURDAY...THE SFC HIGH TO THE NE RETREATS AND A DEVELOPING LOW
ALONG THE SC COAST WILL ORGANIZE. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE
EASTERLY FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS AND
KEPT A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST. IN
LAND...THE SFC RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE CLOUDS AT BAY FOR AREAS WEST
OF A LINE FROM XSA/AKQ/FKN/ASJ. THE CLOUD WILL BE THICKER ACROSS
ERN NC AS THE UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS WILL ALSO BE THICKENING DURING
THE DAY. FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE WARMED VALUES INLAND WITH THE
SUNSHINE EXPECTED...ALONG THE COAST HOWEVER...DID TRIM THE HIGHS
BACK A LITTLE UNDER THE GUIDANCE DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MID RANGE PERIOD. THE
CLOSE LOW ALOFT THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW IS
FORECAST TO OPEN UP AND BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT AS A STRONGER TROUGH
DIGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKE STATES. THIS WILL KEEP
THE LOW FROM BRINGING MORE MOISTURE AND PCPN INLAND...WITH THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION REMAINING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
STORM OFF SHORE. SO HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ALONG
THE COAST SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE REMOVING THE CHANCE
OF RAIN AFTER NOON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER SOME DURING
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY AWAY FROM
THE COAST ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH 850 TEMPS
CLIMBING TO AROUND 17C SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

THE COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. THE MODELS SHOW A VERY NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE WITH THE
FRONT AND THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS PA. WITH THE BEST
FORCING TO THE NORTH AND THE LIMITED MOISTURE...HAVE KEPT POPS IN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE EXCEPT IN THE NRN DELMARVA AND ALONG THE
SE COAST WHERE MOISTURE MAY BE A LITTLE MORE ABUNDANT. ONCE THE
FRONT CLEARS THE AREA BY MID MORNING MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA AND MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVES AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND UNEVENTFUL WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PARKS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS MEANS A CONTINUATION OF NE TO E WINDS
WHICH MAY HAVE SOME MARINE IMPLICATIONS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK.

A SURFACE TROUGH MAY DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK. MODELS INDICATE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH SOME
OF IT SPREADING INTO OUR AREA. SLGT CHC SHOWERS ARE IN THE FCST ERN
VA/NE NC LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN ENE WIND...WITH SPEEDS OF 8-12KT
ALONG THE COAST...AND 5-8KT INLAND. THE SKY SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR
TO BEGIN THE DAY...WITH 5K FT CIGS POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON
OVER COASTAL SE VA/NE NC. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT...AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
SUNDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA OVER COASTAL SE VA/NE NC
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS OFF THE COAST. A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC
-SHRA AND/OR -TSRA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND PREVAILS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NELY TO ELY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON IS RESULTING FROM HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NEW ENGLAND. GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON
ALLOWING FOR GUSTS OF 12-19KT ESPECIALLY AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO BUILD TODAY WITH
3 TO 4 FT SEAS OFF DUCK NC AND OFF OCEAN CITY. SEAS OFF SOUTHEAST
VA REMAIN AROUND 3 FT. SEAS SOUTH OF DUCK HAVE BEEN BUILDING TO 5
TO 6 FT AND SEAS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BUILD TO MARGINAL SCA LATER
TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SCA HEADLINES GO INTO EFFECT FOR ALL THE
COASTAL WATERS AT 1 AM.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SAT AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY OFF THE NC COAST. THE
LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
PASSING WELL OFF THE VA COAST LATE SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
NELY TO NLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND BAY FOR MOST OF THE
WEEKEND. SCA CONDITIONS FOR WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM
BASED ON THE GRADIENT WIND FORECAST. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ELEVATED (4-5 FT) THRU SAT...BEFORE SUBSIDING ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH WINDS TURNING OFFSHORE. SCA HAVE BEEN
EXTENDED INTO SAT NIGHT AND MAY NEED TO EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY FOR
SEAS.

SFC LOW LIFTS NE OFF THE COAST LATE SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY
BUILD TO 5 FT AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. NW WINDS 10-15 KT ON
MONDAY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME N-NE ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LOCK IN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND EXTEND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF NELY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LATEST DROUGHT INFO SHOWING AN AREA OF ABNORMALLY DRY CNDTNS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF VA. THIS INCLUDES AREAS N OF I 64 & RT 360 (INCLUDING
THE RIC METRO AREA) IN AKQ FA. OTHER THAN SCT CONVECTION WITH THE
FRNT SUN EVE...XTNDD MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF RELIEF
FOR THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/ESS
NEAR TERM...ALB/ESS
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...LSA/JAO
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...LSA/JAO
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 200548
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
148 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TO
OUR NORTHWEST SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE TO OUR
SOUTH, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
MONDAY. A WEAKENING FRONT MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY,
BEFORE THE HIGH FULLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST WITH SOME
PATCHY STRATOCUMULUS MOVING THROUGH OTHER PARTS OF THE AREA.
PATCHY FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR AND NW OF I95.

TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGH THE
REGION AND WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT
FALL ALL THAT MUCH MORE BEFORE SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC
WATERS ON SATURDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WHILE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE PATTERN IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS
WILL ALLOW THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC TO RIDGE BACK
WESTWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WILL PROMOTE WAA IN
THE LOW LEVELS. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS THAT ARE 5-10F
WARMER ON SATURDAY THAN TODAY. SATURDAY MAY POTENTIALLY BE THE FIRST
DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SINCE SEP 11, ALBEIT NOT MUCH MORE THAN
A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE.

MODEL BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DEPICT A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER INITIALLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS A RESULT OF THE ONSHORE FLOW AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. THE 12Z NAM TRIES TO MIX OUT MOISTURE AND RESULTANT CLOUDS
RATHER QUICKLY (BY 15Z) ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA WHILE THE 12Z GFS
INDICATES A MUCH CLOUDIER SOLUTION ALONG AND EAST OF THE FALL LINE
THRU MUCH OF THE DAY AS MARINE AIR IS STUBBORN TO MIX OUT. DEEPER
MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AS FORECAST BY THE 12Z WOULD INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST WITH THE ONLY
DISCERNIBLE FORCING MECHANISM BEING LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT. KEPT
POPS VERY LOW DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AND CONFINED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS TO COASTAL LOCALES SINCE MOISTURE FLUX IF FORECAST TO BE
GREATEST OFFSHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE PULLS AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AT THE SAME TIME, AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE EAST COAST NEAR THE CAROLINA
COASTS. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AND PASS EAST OF OUR AREA, BUT
WILL LIKELY NOT PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR AREA TO BRING ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS BEFORE THE FRONT APPROACHES AND PUSHES IT
NORTHEASTWARD. WE MAY HAVE ANOTHER POSSIBILITY FOR LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG AND/OR DRIZZLE AS THE LOW APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE
LOW LEVELS MOISTEN. SO WE HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ENTERING OUR WESTERN AREAS DURING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE SWEEPING ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY EVENING
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS AND QPF MOSTLY TO
OUR WEST DURING THE DAY, BEFORE LOWERING AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH OUR AREA SUNDAY EVENING. SO WE WILL HAVE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS,
DIMINISHING TO LOW END CHANCE SUNDAY EVENING. THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA AND ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST DURING THE
DAY, BUT THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT WE LOSE THE INSTABILITY
BEFORE THE ACTIVITY REACHES OUR AREA. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION.

ON MONDAY, THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT TO SEA, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA ON
TUESDAY, BUT FOR NOW THE FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THEN HIGH PRESSURE FULLY BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WHICH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE AREA. ACTUALLY, THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS
LIKE OUR ONLY CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD, SO
LETS HOPE WE GET SOMETHING FROM IT.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE EXTENDED WITH
TEMPERATURES 5-10 ABOVE NORMAL. THEN TEMPERATURES RETURN CLOSER
TO NORMAL OR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH THIS MORNING...MVFR CEILINGS ARE PUSHING IN FROM THE
WEST AND ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THIS
MORNING. A COUPLE LOCALES MAY DROP TO IFR FOR A PERIOD THIS
MORNING BEFORE CEILINGS START TO LIFT. VISIBILITIES ARE GENERALLY
P6SM AND SHOULD NOT DROP TOO MUCH IN THE STRATOCU.

SATURDAY...MVFR CEILINGS WILL HANG AROUND A BIT, FINALLY STARTING
TO BREAK UP BY EARLY AFTERNOON. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AT JUST HOW
LONG WE HOLD ONTO THE LOWER CEILINGS AS THIS TIME OF YEAR, THE SUN
ANGLE ISN`T AS HIGH. WINDS WILL START TO PICK UP A BIT OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST. A BRIEF SHOWER REMAINS POSSIBLE, MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF KPHL.

SATURDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDS PROBABLE LATER ON WITH STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR PATCHY LIFR CONDITIONS IN DENSE FOG/STRATUS BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. LIGHT WIND.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING
THE BECOMING VFR DURING THE DAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN
THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND
LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY W-NW WINDS 15-20 KNOTS MONDAY.
LESS GUSTY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOYS 44025 AND 44009 HAVE BEEN RESTORED TO SERVICE. THE COMPLETE
RESTORATION OF BUOY 44009 MAY BE DELAYED TIL JANUARY 2015?

EAST WINDS WILL PROBABLY BE BLOWING AT 15 KT ON SATURDAY. SEAS
WILL PROBABLY BE 4 TO 5 FT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE EXCEPTION WE WILL CANCEL THE FAR NNJ WATERS PORTION OF THE
ADVY BY 930 PM TONIGHT.

CONFIDENCE ON THE OVERALL SEAS AND WIND SCENARIO IS A BIT BELOW
AVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXTENDED AS SEAS
LOOK TO LINGER INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING LATER IN
THE NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WITH INCREASING WINDS. WINDS AND WAVES MAY
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING..

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND STAY BELOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
WE CONTINUED THE MDT RISK FOR FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ON SATURDAY FOR NJ. WE ARE USING 4 FT 7 SECONDS. THIS
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY MAY NEED FURTHER ADJUSTMENT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ451>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...DRAG/KLEIN
LONG TERM...DRAG/ROBERTSON
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200511 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
111 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AS A SOUTHERLY
WIND PROVIDES WARMER TEMPERATURES. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. UPDATE TO TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE.

SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST
TODAY. THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FIELD AT THE LOWER AND MID-LEVELS
WILL INTENSIFY PUSHING WARM AIR NORTHWARD. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL RESPOND...RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST. PRE-FRONTAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH AND IT WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING A RATHER STABLE ATMOSPHERE. WILL KEEP POPS LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE MORE CLOUDS THAN
PRECIPITATION.

FRONT REACHES WESTERN ZONES BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AND AN IMPRESSIVE WIND
FIELD AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT CONTINUE TO SEE A LACK
OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE CLOUD COVER FROM SATURDAY NIGHTS
SHORTWAVE WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPS. A SIGNIFICANT LINE OF LOW
LEVEL FORCING DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWEST LAYERS INCREASES. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE
CLOUD COVER AND HOW THIS LIMITS SURFACE TEMPS. ADDITIONALLY...ANY
SHOWERS THAT FALL WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL SHORTWAVE WILL COOL THE
ATMOSPHERE...FURTHER DECREASING THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS.

SUNDAY`S FRONT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THE POTENTIAL IS THERE
FOR A STRONGER EVENT...BUT SO ARE THE LIMITING FACTORS. IF A LINE
OF STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPS IT WILL BE DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY.

FRONT PICKS UP SPEED SUNDAY EVENING AS STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STRONG CAA AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW
THE SHORTWAVE. WOULD EXPECT A LARGE STRATOCU DECK TO MOVE OVER THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH A LARGE PART OF MONDAY. ITS
POSSIBLE THAT A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP...SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE SHORTWAVE...AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
MAIN COLD POOL.

WILL GO BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH THE CAA AND CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH EXCEPT FOR POTENTIAL ST/SC AT FKL AND DUJ IN THE PREDAWN...VFR
CONDITIONS WL CONT WITH SFC WIND PRECLUDING FOG WHILE VEERING TO
THE SOUTH...AND GUSTING NR 20 KT BY SAT AFTN.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
GENERAL RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH A SUNDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200231
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1031 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ON SATURDAY AND
LIFTS UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON SUNDAY. A QUICK MOVING COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HI PRES RMNS CENTERED OVR EXTREME ERN NEW ENG. LO LVL FLO RMNS
FM THE ENE...AND BKN CLDNS TRAPPED BLO INVERSION (MNLY INLAND).
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ENTIRE FCST PACKAGE FOR OVRNGT HRS. MOST LO
TEMPS L/M50S INLAND TO L60S RIGHT AT THE CST.

ON SATURDAY...THE SFC HIGH TO THE NE RETREATS AND A DEVELOPING LOW
ALONG THE SC COAST WILL ORGANIZE. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE
EASTERLY FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS AND
KEPT A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST. IN
LAND...THE SFC RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE CLOUDS AT BAY FOR AREAS WEST
OF A LINE FROM XSA/AKQ/FKN/ASJ. THE CLOUD WILL BE THICKER ACROSS
ERN NC AS THE UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS WILL ALSO BE THICKENING DURING
THE DAY. FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE WARMED VALUES INLAND WITH THE
SUNSHINE EXPECTED...ALONG THE COAST HOWEVER...DID TRIM THE HIGHS
BACK A LITTLE UNDER THE GUIDANCE DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MID RANGE PERIOD. THE
CLOSE LOW ALOFT THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW IS
FORECAST TO OPEN UP AND BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT AS A STRONGER TROUGH
DIGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKE STATES. THIS WILL KEEP
THE LOW FROM BRINGING MORE MOISTURE AND PCPN INLAND...WITH THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION REMAINING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
STORM OFF SHORE. SO HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ALONG
THE COAST SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE REMOVING THE CHANCE
OF RAIN AFTER NOON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER SOME DURING
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY AWAY FROM
THE COAST ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH 850 TEMPS
CLIMBING TO AROUND 17C SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

THE COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. THE MODELS SHOW A VERY NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE WITH THE
FRONT AND THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS PA. WITH THE BEST
FORCING TO THE NORTH AND THE LIMITED MOISTURE...HAVE KEPT POPS IN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE EXCEPT IN THE NRN DELMARVA AND ALONG THE
SE COAST WHERE MOISTURE MAY BE A LITTLE MORE ABUNDANT. ONCE THE
FRONT CLEARS THE AREA BY MID MORNING MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA AND MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVES AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND UNEVENTFUL WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PARKS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS MEANS A CONTINUATION OF NE TO E WINDS
WHICH MAY HAVE SOME MARINE IMPLICATIONS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK.

A SURFACE TROUGH MAY DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK. MODELS INDICATE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH SOME
OF IT SPREADING INTO OUR AREA. SLGT CHC SHOWERS ARE IN THE FCST ERN
VA/NE NC LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH NE-E WINDS OVER THE
CWA. VFR CONDS GENERALLY PREVAIL OVER THE REGION BUT WITH MID AND
LOW CLOUDS DUE TO PLENTY OF MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC. WINDS ARE
MOSTLY 10 KT OR LESS BUT SOME GUSTY CONDS PERSIST CLOSE TO THE
COAST. A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE REGION DUE TO A WEAK SFC
TROF OR UPSLOPE IN THE PIEDMONT. NO SIG WX EXPECTED THRU THE
PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THIN OUT THIS AFTN/EVENING FROM RIC
EAST...WHILE MORE CLOUDINESS AND PSBL MVFR CONDS EXPECTED WEST OF
RIC.


OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
SUN. AN AREA OF LOW PRES MOVG UP THE EAST COAST MAY BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHC OF RAIN FOR NE NC AND SE VA LATE SUN
INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NELY TO ELY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON IS RESULTING FROM HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NEW ENGLAND. GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON
ALLOWING FOR GUSTS OF 12-19KT ESPECIALLY AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO BUILD TODAY WITH
3 TO 4 FT SEAS OFF DUCK NC AND OFF OCEAN CITY. SEAS OFF SOUTHEAST
VA REMAIN AROUND 3 FT. SEAS SOUTH OF DUCK HAVE BEEN BUILDING TO 5
TO 6 FT AND SEAS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BUILD TO MARGINAL SCA LATER
TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SCA HEADLINES GO INTO EFFECT FOR ALL THE
COASTAL WATERS AT 1 AM.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SAT AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY OFF THE NC COAST. THE
LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
PASSING WELL OFF THE VA COAST LATE SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
NELY TO NLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND BAY FOR MOST OF THE
WEEKEND. SCA CONDITIONS FOR WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM
BASED ON THE GRADIENT WIND FORECAST. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ELEVATED (4-5 FT) THRU SAT...BEFORE SUBSIDING ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH WINDS TURNING OFFSHORE. SCA HAVE BEEN
EXTENDED INTO SAT NIGHT AND MAY NEED TO EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY FOR
SEAS.

SFC LOW LIFTS NE OFF THE COAST LATE SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY
BUILD TO 5 FT AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. NW WINDS 10-15 KT ON
MONDAY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME N-NE ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LOCK IN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND EXTEND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF NELY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LATEST DROUGHT INFO SHOWING AN AREA OF ABNORMALLY DRY CNDTNS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF VA. THIS INCLUDES AREAS N OF I 64 & RT 360 (INCLUDING
THE RIC METRO AREA) IN AKQ FA. OTHER THAN SCT CONVECTION WITH THE
FRNT SUN EVE...XTNDD MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF RELIEF
FOR THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT SATURDAY THROUGH
     SATURDAY EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT SATURDAY THROUGH
     SATURDAY EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT SATURDAY THROUGH
     SATURDAY EVENING FOR VAZ098.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT SATURDAY THROUGH
     SATURDAY EVENING FOR VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ652-654-656-
     658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/ESS
NEAR TERM...ALB/ESS
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...LSA/JAO
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LSA/JAO
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS61 KLWX 200133 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
933 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LITTLE WRINKLE IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL BRUSH PAST THE ERN HALF OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE IS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH DRIFTING
OFF THE NRN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE OFFSHORE UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE
SRN ATLC. KDOX SHOWING A COASTAL FRONT DRIFTING ONSHORE AND OVER
DELMARVA RECENTLY. ELY FLOW HAS BEEN ONGOING FROM THE AFTN
HRS...W/ A DECENT STRENGTHENING OF IT OVER THE PAST FEW HRS. HIGH
PRESSURE JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...W/ IT`S SRN PERIPHERY
SQUEEZING DOWN INTO THE MID-ATLC IS PUSHING UP AGAIN THIS NRN
TROUGH IS CAUSING THE ELY ONSHORE FLOW AND CONVERGENCE OF
MOIST/DRY AIR.

THE BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE MAKING THEIR WAY OVER THE WATERS OF THE
CHES BAY BUT DISSIPATING OFF WELL OVER ERN MD/W OF THE BAY. A
HANDFUL OF SHOWERS HAVE RESULTED FROM THE ONSHORE FLOW...ALONG W/
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BANKING INTO THE MTNS W/ SOME OVERRUNNING
EFFECTS CREATING A DECENT STRATUS DECK OVER THE APLCNS. E OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...MORE OF A SCT/BKN NATURE TO THIS DECK. THE RELATIVE
INCREASE IN SFC MOISTURE OVER THE PIEDMONT/COASTAL AREAS WILL HELP
MODERATE TEMPS OVER THESE AREAS AND THE DENSE CLOUD COVER WILL
MODERATE LOWS OVER THE WEST. AFTER HITTING THE L-M40S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN LAST NIGHT...THESE AREAS WILL END UP ABOUT 10F DEG
WARMER...WHILE THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL BE CLOSER TO THEIR
LOWS FROM LAST NIGHT.

PREV DISC...
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY AND AN ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE. HOWEVER...THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD
LOWER DUE TO RISING PRESSURES OVERHEAD BETWEEN A COLD FRONT OVER
THE MIDWEST AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST. WITH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...THIS MEANS THAT
ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
NEAR 80 ACROSS THE WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT...BUT MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTH WILL BE
MEAGER. STILL...THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FORCING THE COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO BE PRETTY STRONG BY THE MODELS AND THAT SHOULD IN TURN
FORCE NARROW BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY OR PERHAPS
SPOTTY DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WHERE
ADDED TERRAIN FORCING COULD RESULT IN BRIEFLY MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY WANE AS THEY PUSH EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AND TOWARDS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY DURING THE EVENING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS FROM
CANADA RESULTING IN DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DRY AND FALL-LIKE WEEK IS FORECAST FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS A
LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY PUSHES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/EASTERN CONUS AND RIDGING PERSISTS ALOFT. WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SHALLOW MOISTURE IN LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW...THE SETUP COULD BE IDEAL ON MORE THAN ONE OCCASION FOR LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG OR STRATUS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...W/ A BUILDING
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA - ESP ACROSS
CENTRAL VIRGINIA/SPREADING NORTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST OVER THE TERMINALS TONIGHT INTO MID-MRNG SAT...BUT
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT KCHO
DURING THIS TIME. ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BURN OFF LATER
SATURDAY MORNING AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

SUB-VFR PSBL SUN IN SPARSE COVERAGE SHWRS/TSTMS IN AFTN/EVE. WINDS
SW 10 KTS SUN. VFR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND
FRONT W/ W WINDS 10-15 KTS W/ GUSTS TO 20 KTS PSBL SUN
NIGHT-MON...THEN N LESS 10 KTS OR LESS MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT.
MODERATELY HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN OVERALL SETUP AS MODELS ARE
IN AGREEMENT WITH TYPICAL TIMING DIFFERENCES REVOLVING AROUND THE
WIND SHIFT IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE FRONT AND THE TIMING OF HIGHER
GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A PRESSURE SURGE WILL CAUSE
WINDS TO INCREASE A BIT OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER
TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. WINDS SHOULD BE A BIT WEAKER SATURDAY AS THE
GRADIENT SUBSIDES A BIT.

S FLOW AROUND 10 KTS OR SO AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SAT NIGHT-SUN ALONG
W/ CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS WHICH COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS SUN
EVE. FRONT AND PRECIP CLEARS THE COAST SUN NIGHT AND WINDS BECOME W
OR NW 10-15 KTS GUSTS 20 KTS. WINDS BECOME N 10 KTS MON NIGHT-WED
BEFORE VEERING AROUND TO THE E LATER IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY MIGRATES TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MOST LOCATIONS STILL SHOWING TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE AROUND ONE-HALF
FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. THE SURFACE FLOW WILL STAY GENERALLY ELY OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS...GUSTING IN THE 10-15KT RANGE WHICH WILL
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PULL THOSE LEVELS UP. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
UP THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND THIS
MAY ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR ELEVATED WATER LEVELS.

MINOR TIDAL FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
LATE TONIGHT BUT UNLIKELY UNLESS WINDS STRENGTHEN FURTHER. THERE
IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLES LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537-539>541-543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...BJL/DFH







000
FXUS61 KLWX 200133 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
933 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LITTLE WRINKLE IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL BRUSH PAST THE ERN HALF OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE IS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH DRIFTING
OFF THE NRN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE OFFSHORE UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE
SRN ATLC. KDOX SHOWING A COASTAL FRONT DRIFTING ONSHORE AND OVER
DELMARVA RECENTLY. ELY FLOW HAS BEEN ONGOING FROM THE AFTN
HRS...W/ A DECENT STRENGTHENING OF IT OVER THE PAST FEW HRS. HIGH
PRESSURE JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...W/ IT`S SRN PERIPHERY
SQUEEZING DOWN INTO THE MID-ATLC IS PUSHING UP AGAIN THIS NRN
TROUGH IS CAUSING THE ELY ONSHORE FLOW AND CONVERGENCE OF
MOIST/DRY AIR.

THE BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE MAKING THEIR WAY OVER THE WATERS OF THE
CHES BAY BUT DISSIPATING OFF WELL OVER ERN MD/W OF THE BAY. A
HANDFUL OF SHOWERS HAVE RESULTED FROM THE ONSHORE FLOW...ALONG W/
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BANKING INTO THE MTNS W/ SOME OVERRUNNING
EFFECTS CREATING A DECENT STRATUS DECK OVER THE APLCNS. E OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...MORE OF A SCT/BKN NATURE TO THIS DECK. THE RELATIVE
INCREASE IN SFC MOISTURE OVER THE PIEDMONT/COASTAL AREAS WILL HELP
MODERATE TEMPS OVER THESE AREAS AND THE DENSE CLOUD COVER WILL
MODERATE LOWS OVER THE WEST. AFTER HITTING THE L-M40S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN LAST NIGHT...THESE AREAS WILL END UP ABOUT 10F DEG
WARMER...WHILE THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL BE CLOSER TO THEIR
LOWS FROM LAST NIGHT.

PREV DISC...
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY AND AN ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE. HOWEVER...THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD
LOWER DUE TO RISING PRESSURES OVERHEAD BETWEEN A COLD FRONT OVER
THE MIDWEST AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST. WITH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...THIS MEANS THAT
ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
NEAR 80 ACROSS THE WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT...BUT MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTH WILL BE
MEAGER. STILL...THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FORCING THE COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO BE PRETTY STRONG BY THE MODELS AND THAT SHOULD IN TURN
FORCE NARROW BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY OR PERHAPS
SPOTTY DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WHERE
ADDED TERRAIN FORCING COULD RESULT IN BRIEFLY MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY WANE AS THEY PUSH EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AND TOWARDS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY DURING THE EVENING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS FROM
CANADA RESULTING IN DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DRY AND FALL-LIKE WEEK IS FORECAST FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS A
LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY PUSHES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/EASTERN CONUS AND RIDGING PERSISTS ALOFT. WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SHALLOW MOISTURE IN LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW...THE SETUP COULD BE IDEAL ON MORE THAN ONE OCCASION FOR LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG OR STRATUS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...W/ A BUILDING
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA - ESP ACROSS
CENTRAL VIRGINIA/SPREADING NORTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST OVER THE TERMINALS TONIGHT INTO MID-MRNG SAT...BUT
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT KCHO
DURING THIS TIME. ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BURN OFF LATER
SATURDAY MORNING AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

SUB-VFR PSBL SUN IN SPARSE COVERAGE SHWRS/TSTMS IN AFTN/EVE. WINDS
SW 10 KTS SUN. VFR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND
FRONT W/ W WINDS 10-15 KTS W/ GUSTS TO 20 KTS PSBL SUN
NIGHT-MON...THEN N LESS 10 KTS OR LESS MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT.
MODERATELY HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN OVERALL SETUP AS MODELS ARE
IN AGREEMENT WITH TYPICAL TIMING DIFFERENCES REVOLVING AROUND THE
WIND SHIFT IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE FRONT AND THE TIMING OF HIGHER
GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A PRESSURE SURGE WILL CAUSE
WINDS TO INCREASE A BIT OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER
TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. WINDS SHOULD BE A BIT WEAKER SATURDAY AS THE
GRADIENT SUBSIDES A BIT.

S FLOW AROUND 10 KTS OR SO AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SAT NIGHT-SUN ALONG
W/ CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS WHICH COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS SUN
EVE. FRONT AND PRECIP CLEARS THE COAST SUN NIGHT AND WINDS BECOME W
OR NW 10-15 KTS GUSTS 20 KTS. WINDS BECOME N 10 KTS MON NIGHT-WED
BEFORE VEERING AROUND TO THE E LATER IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY MIGRATES TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MOST LOCATIONS STILL SHOWING TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE AROUND ONE-HALF
FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. THE SURFACE FLOW WILL STAY GENERALLY ELY OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS...GUSTING IN THE 10-15KT RANGE WHICH WILL
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PULL THOSE LEVELS UP. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
UP THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND THIS
MAY ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR ELEVATED WATER LEVELS.

MINOR TIDAL FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
LATE TONIGHT BUT UNLIKELY UNLESS WINDS STRENGTHEN FURTHER. THERE
IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLES LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537-539>541-543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...BJL/DFH







000
FXUS61 KLWX 200133 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
933 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LITTLE WRINKLE IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL BRUSH PAST THE ERN HALF OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE IS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH DRIFTING
OFF THE NRN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE OFFSHORE UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE
SRN ATLC. KDOX SHOWING A COASTAL FRONT DRIFTING ONSHORE AND OVER
DELMARVA RECENTLY. ELY FLOW HAS BEEN ONGOING FROM THE AFTN
HRS...W/ A DECENT STRENGTHENING OF IT OVER THE PAST FEW HRS. HIGH
PRESSURE JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...W/ IT`S SRN PERIPHERY
SQUEEZING DOWN INTO THE MID-ATLC IS PUSHING UP AGAIN THIS NRN
TROUGH IS CAUSING THE ELY ONSHORE FLOW AND CONVERGENCE OF
MOIST/DRY AIR.

THE BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE MAKING THEIR WAY OVER THE WATERS OF THE
CHES BAY BUT DISSIPATING OFF WELL OVER ERN MD/W OF THE BAY. A
HANDFUL OF SHOWERS HAVE RESULTED FROM THE ONSHORE FLOW...ALONG W/
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BANKING INTO THE MTNS W/ SOME OVERRUNNING
EFFECTS CREATING A DECENT STRATUS DECK OVER THE APLCNS. E OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...MORE OF A SCT/BKN NATURE TO THIS DECK. THE RELATIVE
INCREASE IN SFC MOISTURE OVER THE PIEDMONT/COASTAL AREAS WILL HELP
MODERATE TEMPS OVER THESE AREAS AND THE DENSE CLOUD COVER WILL
MODERATE LOWS OVER THE WEST. AFTER HITTING THE L-M40S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN LAST NIGHT...THESE AREAS WILL END UP ABOUT 10F DEG
WARMER...WHILE THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL BE CLOSER TO THEIR
LOWS FROM LAST NIGHT.

PREV DISC...
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY AND AN ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE. HOWEVER...THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD
LOWER DUE TO RISING PRESSURES OVERHEAD BETWEEN A COLD FRONT OVER
THE MIDWEST AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST. WITH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...THIS MEANS THAT
ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
NEAR 80 ACROSS THE WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT...BUT MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTH WILL BE
MEAGER. STILL...THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FORCING THE COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO BE PRETTY STRONG BY THE MODELS AND THAT SHOULD IN TURN
FORCE NARROW BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY OR PERHAPS
SPOTTY DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WHERE
ADDED TERRAIN FORCING COULD RESULT IN BRIEFLY MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY WANE AS THEY PUSH EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AND TOWARDS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY DURING THE EVENING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS FROM
CANADA RESULTING IN DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DRY AND FALL-LIKE WEEK IS FORECAST FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS A
LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY PUSHES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/EASTERN CONUS AND RIDGING PERSISTS ALOFT. WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SHALLOW MOISTURE IN LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW...THE SETUP COULD BE IDEAL ON MORE THAN ONE OCCASION FOR LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG OR STRATUS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...W/ A BUILDING
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA - ESP ACROSS
CENTRAL VIRGINIA/SPREADING NORTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST OVER THE TERMINALS TONIGHT INTO MID-MRNG SAT...BUT
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT KCHO
DURING THIS TIME. ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BURN OFF LATER
SATURDAY MORNING AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

SUB-VFR PSBL SUN IN SPARSE COVERAGE SHWRS/TSTMS IN AFTN/EVE. WINDS
SW 10 KTS SUN. VFR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND
FRONT W/ W WINDS 10-15 KTS W/ GUSTS TO 20 KTS PSBL SUN
NIGHT-MON...THEN N LESS 10 KTS OR LESS MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT.
MODERATELY HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN OVERALL SETUP AS MODELS ARE
IN AGREEMENT WITH TYPICAL TIMING DIFFERENCES REVOLVING AROUND THE
WIND SHIFT IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE FRONT AND THE TIMING OF HIGHER
GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A PRESSURE SURGE WILL CAUSE
WINDS TO INCREASE A BIT OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER
TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. WINDS SHOULD BE A BIT WEAKER SATURDAY AS THE
GRADIENT SUBSIDES A BIT.

S FLOW AROUND 10 KTS OR SO AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SAT NIGHT-SUN ALONG
W/ CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS WHICH COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS SUN
EVE. FRONT AND PRECIP CLEARS THE COAST SUN NIGHT AND WINDS BECOME W
OR NW 10-15 KTS GUSTS 20 KTS. WINDS BECOME N 10 KTS MON NIGHT-WED
BEFORE VEERING AROUND TO THE E LATER IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY MIGRATES TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MOST LOCATIONS STILL SHOWING TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE AROUND ONE-HALF
FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. THE SURFACE FLOW WILL STAY GENERALLY ELY OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS...GUSTING IN THE 10-15KT RANGE WHICH WILL
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PULL THOSE LEVELS UP. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
UP THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND THIS
MAY ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR ELEVATED WATER LEVELS.

MINOR TIDAL FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
LATE TONIGHT BUT UNLIKELY UNLESS WINDS STRENGTHEN FURTHER. THERE
IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLES LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537-539>541-543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...BJL/DFH







000
FXUS61 KLWX 200133 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
933 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LITTLE WRINKLE IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL BRUSH PAST THE ERN HALF OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE IS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH DRIFTING
OFF THE NRN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE OFFSHORE UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE
SRN ATLC. KDOX SHOWING A COASTAL FRONT DRIFTING ONSHORE AND OVER
DELMARVA RECENTLY. ELY FLOW HAS BEEN ONGOING FROM THE AFTN
HRS...W/ A DECENT STRENGTHENING OF IT OVER THE PAST FEW HRS. HIGH
PRESSURE JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...W/ IT`S SRN PERIPHERY
SQUEEZING DOWN INTO THE MID-ATLC IS PUSHING UP AGAIN THIS NRN
TROUGH IS CAUSING THE ELY ONSHORE FLOW AND CONVERGENCE OF
MOIST/DRY AIR.

THE BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE MAKING THEIR WAY OVER THE WATERS OF THE
CHES BAY BUT DISSIPATING OFF WELL OVER ERN MD/W OF THE BAY. A
HANDFUL OF SHOWERS HAVE RESULTED FROM THE ONSHORE FLOW...ALONG W/
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BANKING INTO THE MTNS W/ SOME OVERRUNNING
EFFECTS CREATING A DECENT STRATUS DECK OVER THE APLCNS. E OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...MORE OF A SCT/BKN NATURE TO THIS DECK. THE RELATIVE
INCREASE IN SFC MOISTURE OVER THE PIEDMONT/COASTAL AREAS WILL HELP
MODERATE TEMPS OVER THESE AREAS AND THE DENSE CLOUD COVER WILL
MODERATE LOWS OVER THE WEST. AFTER HITTING THE L-M40S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN LAST NIGHT...THESE AREAS WILL END UP ABOUT 10F DEG
WARMER...WHILE THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL BE CLOSER TO THEIR
LOWS FROM LAST NIGHT.

PREV DISC...
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY AND AN ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE. HOWEVER...THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD
LOWER DUE TO RISING PRESSURES OVERHEAD BETWEEN A COLD FRONT OVER
THE MIDWEST AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST. WITH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...THIS MEANS THAT
ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
NEAR 80 ACROSS THE WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT...BUT MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTH WILL BE
MEAGER. STILL...THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FORCING THE COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO BE PRETTY STRONG BY THE MODELS AND THAT SHOULD IN TURN
FORCE NARROW BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY OR PERHAPS
SPOTTY DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WHERE
ADDED TERRAIN FORCING COULD RESULT IN BRIEFLY MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY WANE AS THEY PUSH EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AND TOWARDS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY DURING THE EVENING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS FROM
CANADA RESULTING IN DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DRY AND FALL-LIKE WEEK IS FORECAST FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS A
LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY PUSHES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/EASTERN CONUS AND RIDGING PERSISTS ALOFT. WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SHALLOW MOISTURE IN LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW...THE SETUP COULD BE IDEAL ON MORE THAN ONE OCCASION FOR LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG OR STRATUS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...W/ A BUILDING
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA - ESP ACROSS
CENTRAL VIRGINIA/SPREADING NORTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST OVER THE TERMINALS TONIGHT INTO MID-MRNG SAT...BUT
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT KCHO
DURING THIS TIME. ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BURN OFF LATER
SATURDAY MORNING AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

SUB-VFR PSBL SUN IN SPARSE COVERAGE SHWRS/TSTMS IN AFTN/EVE. WINDS
SW 10 KTS SUN. VFR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND
FRONT W/ W WINDS 10-15 KTS W/ GUSTS TO 20 KTS PSBL SUN
NIGHT-MON...THEN N LESS 10 KTS OR LESS MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT.
MODERATELY HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN OVERALL SETUP AS MODELS ARE
IN AGREEMENT WITH TYPICAL TIMING DIFFERENCES REVOLVING AROUND THE
WIND SHIFT IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE FRONT AND THE TIMING OF HIGHER
GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A PRESSURE SURGE WILL CAUSE
WINDS TO INCREASE A BIT OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER
TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. WINDS SHOULD BE A BIT WEAKER SATURDAY AS THE
GRADIENT SUBSIDES A BIT.

S FLOW AROUND 10 KTS OR SO AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SAT NIGHT-SUN ALONG
W/ CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS WHICH COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS SUN
EVE. FRONT AND PRECIP CLEARS THE COAST SUN NIGHT AND WINDS BECOME W
OR NW 10-15 KTS GUSTS 20 KTS. WINDS BECOME N 10 KTS MON NIGHT-WED
BEFORE VEERING AROUND TO THE E LATER IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY MIGRATES TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MOST LOCATIONS STILL SHOWING TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE AROUND ONE-HALF
FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. THE SURFACE FLOW WILL STAY GENERALLY ELY OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS...GUSTING IN THE 10-15KT RANGE WHICH WILL
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PULL THOSE LEVELS UP. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
UP THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND THIS
MAY ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR ELEVATED WATER LEVELS.

MINOR TIDAL FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
LATE TONIGHT BUT UNLIKELY UNLESS WINDS STRENGTHEN FURTHER. THERE
IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLES LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537-539>541-543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...BJL/DFH







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200115
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
915 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY AS
SOUTHERLY WIND WARMS TEMPERATURES UP. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ONLY CHANGES FOR THE LATE EVE UPDATE WERE TO SKY COVER.

BROAD SFC HIGH FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL ENSURE DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE NEAR TERM...BUT RESULTING SELY FLOW
HAS ADVECTED ATLANTIC MOISTURE ACRS THE ERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS.

LOW PRES DIGGING TWD THE NRN LAKES WL VEER WIND TO THE S ON
SATURDAY WITH WARM ADVCTN DRIVING HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MSTR WL INCR SAT NGT ON SWLY WIND AHEAD OF A CDFNT THAT IS XPCD
TO CROSS THE RGN ON SUN. THE INCRD MSTR WL KEEP TEMPS FROM
FALLING TOO AGGRESSIVELY...AND SHWRS FORMING ALONG THE ADVNG
FRONT MAY MOVE INTO FAR NWRN ZONES AFTR MIDNGT.

500 MB SHRTWV TROF IS PROGGED TO ACQUIRE NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE TILT ON
SUN AS IT CROSSES THE SRN GRTLKS. THE CONCURRENCE OF INCRG SHEAR...MSTR
ADVCTN AHEAD OF CDFNT...AND INCRG LIFT IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE
DVLPMT OF CNVCTV LINE ALONG THE SURGING FRONT.

THE INTENSITY OF THE LINE WL DEPEND UPON AMT OF SUNSHINE THAT
OCCURS. PROVIDED DP CNVCTN DVLPS...THERE WILL BE A POTL FOR DMGG
WIND GUSTS WITH ORGANIZED CNVCTV LINE SEGMENTS. THIS POTL WILL BE
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO ATTM.

POPS WERE INCRD CONSIDERABLY ON SUN IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE TRENDS.
BEST CHC FOR PCPN APPEARS TO BE SUN AFTN AS CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.
ANY SHWRS WL SHIFT EWD BY EARLY EVE...WITH PERHAPS SOME LAKE-EFFECT
SHWRS FORMING ACRS NRN ZONES SUN NGT.

SFC HIGH WL BLD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND BRING AN END TO
PCPN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL DRY AND COOL PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH EXCEPT FOR POTENTIAL ST/SC AT FKL AND DUJ IN THE PREDAWN...VFR
CONDITIONS WL CONT WITH SFC WIND PRECLUDING FOG WHILE VEERING TO
THE SOUTH...AND GUSTING NR 20 KT BY SAT AFTN.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
GENERAL RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH A SUNDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200115
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
915 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY AS
SOUTHERLY WIND WARMS TEMPERATURES UP. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ONLY CHANGES FOR THE LATE EVE UPDATE WERE TO SKY COVER.

BROAD SFC HIGH FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL ENSURE DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE NEAR TERM...BUT RESULTING SELY FLOW
HAS ADVECTED ATLANTIC MOISTURE ACRS THE ERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS.

LOW PRES DIGGING TWD THE NRN LAKES WL VEER WIND TO THE S ON
SATURDAY WITH WARM ADVCTN DRIVING HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MSTR WL INCR SAT NGT ON SWLY WIND AHEAD OF A CDFNT THAT IS XPCD
TO CROSS THE RGN ON SUN. THE INCRD MSTR WL KEEP TEMPS FROM
FALLING TOO AGGRESSIVELY...AND SHWRS FORMING ALONG THE ADVNG
FRONT MAY MOVE INTO FAR NWRN ZONES AFTR MIDNGT.

500 MB SHRTWV TROF IS PROGGED TO ACQUIRE NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE TILT ON
SUN AS IT CROSSES THE SRN GRTLKS. THE CONCURRENCE OF INCRG SHEAR...MSTR
ADVCTN AHEAD OF CDFNT...AND INCRG LIFT IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE
DVLPMT OF CNVCTV LINE ALONG THE SURGING FRONT.

THE INTENSITY OF THE LINE WL DEPEND UPON AMT OF SUNSHINE THAT
OCCURS. PROVIDED DP CNVCTN DVLPS...THERE WILL BE A POTL FOR DMGG
WIND GUSTS WITH ORGANIZED CNVCTV LINE SEGMENTS. THIS POTL WILL BE
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO ATTM.

POPS WERE INCRD CONSIDERABLY ON SUN IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE TRENDS.
BEST CHC FOR PCPN APPEARS TO BE SUN AFTN AS CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.
ANY SHWRS WL SHIFT EWD BY EARLY EVE...WITH PERHAPS SOME LAKE-EFFECT
SHWRS FORMING ACRS NRN ZONES SUN NGT.

SFC HIGH WL BLD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND BRING AN END TO
PCPN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL DRY AND COOL PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH EXCEPT FOR POTENTIAL ST/SC AT FKL AND DUJ IN THE PREDAWN...VFR
CONDITIONS WL CONT WITH SFC WIND PRECLUDING FOG WHILE VEERING TO
THE SOUTH...AND GUSTING NR 20 KT BY SAT AFTN.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
GENERAL RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH A SUNDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200114
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
914 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ON SATURDAY AND
LIFTS UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON SUNDAY. A QUICK MOVING COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HI PRES RMNS CENTERED OVR EXTREME ERN NEW ENG. LO LVL FLO RMNS
FM THE ENE...AND BKN CLDNS TRAPPED BLO INVERSION (MNLY INLAND).
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ENTIRE FCST PACKAGE FOR OVRNGT HRS. MOST LO
TEMPS L/M50S INLAND TO L60S RIGHT AT THE CST.

ON SATURDAY...THE SFC HIGH TO THE NE RETREATS AND A DEVELOPING LOW
ALONG THE SC COAST WILL ORGANIZE. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE
EASTERLY FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS AND
KEPT A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST. IN
LAND...THE SFC RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE CLOUDS AT BAY FOR AREAS WEST
OF A LINE FROM XSA/AKQ/FKN/ASJ. THE CLOUD WILL BE THICKER ACROSS
ERN NC AS THE UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS WILL ALSO BE THICKENING DURING
THE DAY. FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE WARMED VALUES INLAND WITH THE
SUNSHINE EXPECTED...ALONG THE COAST HOWEVER...DID TRIM THE HIGHS
BACK A LITTLE UNDER THE GUIDANCE DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MID RANGE PERIOD. THE
CLOSE LOW ALOFT THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW IS
FORECAST TO OPEN UP AND BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT AS A STRONGER TROUGH
DIGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKE STATES. THIS WILL KEEP
THE LOW FROM BRINGING MORE MOISTURE AND PCPN INLAND...WITH THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION REMAINING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
STORM OFF SHORE. SO HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ALONG
THE COAST SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE REMOVING THE CHANCE
OF RAIN AFTER NOON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER SOME DURING
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY AWAY FROM
THE COAST ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH 850 TEMPS
CLIMBING TO AROUND 17C SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

THE COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. THE MODELS SHOW A VERY NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE WITH THE
FRONT AND THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS PA. WITH THE BEST
FORCING TO THE NORTH AND THE LIMITED MOISTURE...HAVE KEPT POPS IN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE EXCEPT IN THE NRN DELMARVA AND ALONG THE
SE COAST WHERE MOISTURE MAY BE A LITTLE MORE ABUNDANT. ONCE THE
FRONT CLEARS THE AREA BY MID MORNING MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA AND MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVES AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE THE NE.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE ERN CONUS
WITH THE EVOLVING AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN. AMPLIFIED PATTERN
WILL FEATURE A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED SECONDARY/REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED
ALONG THE FRONT (PWATS ~1.5 INCHES)...BUT HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING
WINDS ALOFT (JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH) WILL
PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE REGION. SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED POPS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE NRN
LOCAL AREA. THE BIGGER HEADLINE WITH THE FRONT WILL BE THE DRY AIR
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION POST FRONTAL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE W-NW. MON WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE COOLEST/DRIEST
AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT. REINFORCING SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE GREAT
LAKES-NE STATES TUES AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES OFF THE ERN
SEABOARD. MEANWHILE...MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROGRESS EWD OVER THE
CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO THE ERN CONUS TUES- WEDS. COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE PROGGED TO BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDS. UPPER/SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THURS. THE RESULT WILL BE
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

HIGHS WILL BE BELOW AVG THRU THE PERIOD...WITH TUES AND WEDS BEING
THE COLDEST DAYS AT NEARLY -1 STD DEV (LOW-MID 70S). WENT A LITTLE
ABOVE WPC GUIDANCE AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S
INLAND TO LOW 60S NEAR THE COAST. FEW LOCALES IN THE PIEDMONT MAY
DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH NE-E WINDS OVER THE
CWA. VFR CONDS GENERALLY PREVAIL OVER THE REGION BUT WITH MID AND
LOW CLOUDS DUE TO PLENTY OF MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC. WINDS ARE
MOSTLY 10 KT OR LESS BUT SOME GUSTY CONDS PERSIST CLOSE TO THE
COAST. A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE REGION DUE TO A WEAK SFC
TROF OR UPSLOPE IN THE PIEDMONT. NO SIG WX EXPECTED THRU THE
PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THIN OUT THIS AFTN/EVENING FROM RIC
EAST...WHILE MORE CLOUDINESS AND PSBL MVFR CONDS EXPECTED WEST OF
RIC.


OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
SUN. AN AREA OF LOW PRES MOVG UP THE EAST COAST MAY BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHC OF RAIN FOR NE NC AND SE VA LATE SUN
INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NELY TO ELY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON IS RESULTING FROM HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NEW ENGLAND. GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON
ALLOWING FOR GUSTS OF 12-19KT ESPECIALLY AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO BUILD TODAY WITH
3 TO 4 FT SEAS OFF DUCK NC AND OFF OCEAN CITY. SEAS OFF SOUTHEAST
VA REMAIN AROUND 3 FT. SEAS SOUTH OF DUCK HAVE BEEN BUILDING TO 5
TO 6 FT AND SEAS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BUILD TO MARGINAL SCA LATER
TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SCA HEADLINES GO INTO EFFECT FOR ALL THE
COASTAL WATERS AT 1 AM.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SAT AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY OFF THE NC COAST. THE
LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
PASSING WELL OFF THE VA COAST LATE SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
NELY TO NLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND BAY FOR MOST OF THE
WEEKEND. SCA CONDITIONS FOR WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM
BASED ON THE GRADIENT WIND FORECAST. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ELEVATED (4-5 FT) THRU SAT...BEFORE SUBSIDING ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH WINDS TURNING OFFSHORE. SCA HAVE BEEN
EXTENDED INTO SAT NIGHT AND MAY NEED TO EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY FOR
SEAS.

SFC LOW LIFTS NE OFF THE COAST LATE SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY
BUILD TO 5 FT AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. NW WINDS 10-15 KT ON
MONDAY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME N-NE ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LOCK IN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND EXTEND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF NELY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LATEST DROUGHT INFO SHOWING AN AREA OF ABNORMALLY DRY CNDTNS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF VA. THIS INCLUDES AREAS N OF I 64 & RT 360 (INCLUDING
THE RIC METRO AREA) IN AKQ FA. OTHER THAN SCT CONVECTION WITH THE
FRNT SUN EVE...XTNDD MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF RELIEF
FOR THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
     SATURDAY EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NCZ102.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ098.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
     SATURDAY EVENING FOR VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/ESS
NEAR TERM...ALB/ESS
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...JAO
HYDROLOGY...
















000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200114
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
914 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ON SATURDAY AND
LIFTS UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON SUNDAY. A QUICK MOVING COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HI PRES RMNS CENTERED OVR EXTREME ERN NEW ENG. LO LVL FLO RMNS
FM THE ENE...AND BKN CLDNS TRAPPED BLO INVERSION (MNLY INLAND).
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ENTIRE FCST PACKAGE FOR OVRNGT HRS. MOST LO
TEMPS L/M50S INLAND TO L60S RIGHT AT THE CST.

ON SATURDAY...THE SFC HIGH TO THE NE RETREATS AND A DEVELOPING LOW
ALONG THE SC COAST WILL ORGANIZE. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE
EASTERLY FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS AND
KEPT A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST. IN
LAND...THE SFC RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE CLOUDS AT BAY FOR AREAS WEST
OF A LINE FROM XSA/AKQ/FKN/ASJ. THE CLOUD WILL BE THICKER ACROSS
ERN NC AS THE UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS WILL ALSO BE THICKENING DURING
THE DAY. FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE WARMED VALUES INLAND WITH THE
SUNSHINE EXPECTED...ALONG THE COAST HOWEVER...DID TRIM THE HIGHS
BACK A LITTLE UNDER THE GUIDANCE DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MID RANGE PERIOD. THE
CLOSE LOW ALOFT THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW IS
FORECAST TO OPEN UP AND BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT AS A STRONGER TROUGH
DIGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKE STATES. THIS WILL KEEP
THE LOW FROM BRINGING MORE MOISTURE AND PCPN INLAND...WITH THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION REMAINING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
STORM OFF SHORE. SO HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ALONG
THE COAST SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE REMOVING THE CHANCE
OF RAIN AFTER NOON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER SOME DURING
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY AWAY FROM
THE COAST ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH 850 TEMPS
CLIMBING TO AROUND 17C SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

THE COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. THE MODELS SHOW A VERY NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE WITH THE
FRONT AND THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS PA. WITH THE BEST
FORCING TO THE NORTH AND THE LIMITED MOISTURE...HAVE KEPT POPS IN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE EXCEPT IN THE NRN DELMARVA AND ALONG THE
SE COAST WHERE MOISTURE MAY BE A LITTLE MORE ABUNDANT. ONCE THE
FRONT CLEARS THE AREA BY MID MORNING MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA AND MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVES AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE THE NE.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE ERN CONUS
WITH THE EVOLVING AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN. AMPLIFIED PATTERN
WILL FEATURE A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED SECONDARY/REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED
ALONG THE FRONT (PWATS ~1.5 INCHES)...BUT HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING
WINDS ALOFT (JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH) WILL
PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE REGION. SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED POPS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE NRN
LOCAL AREA. THE BIGGER HEADLINE WITH THE FRONT WILL BE THE DRY AIR
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION POST FRONTAL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE W-NW. MON WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE COOLEST/DRIEST
AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT. REINFORCING SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE GREAT
LAKES-NE STATES TUES AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES OFF THE ERN
SEABOARD. MEANWHILE...MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROGRESS EWD OVER THE
CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO THE ERN CONUS TUES- WEDS. COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE PROGGED TO BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDS. UPPER/SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THURS. THE RESULT WILL BE
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

HIGHS WILL BE BELOW AVG THRU THE PERIOD...WITH TUES AND WEDS BEING
THE COLDEST DAYS AT NEARLY -1 STD DEV (LOW-MID 70S). WENT A LITTLE
ABOVE WPC GUIDANCE AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S
INLAND TO LOW 60S NEAR THE COAST. FEW LOCALES IN THE PIEDMONT MAY
DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH NE-E WINDS OVER THE
CWA. VFR CONDS GENERALLY PREVAIL OVER THE REGION BUT WITH MID AND
LOW CLOUDS DUE TO PLENTY OF MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC. WINDS ARE
MOSTLY 10 KT OR LESS BUT SOME GUSTY CONDS PERSIST CLOSE TO THE
COAST. A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE REGION DUE TO A WEAK SFC
TROF OR UPSLOPE IN THE PIEDMONT. NO SIG WX EXPECTED THRU THE
PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THIN OUT THIS AFTN/EVENING FROM RIC
EAST...WHILE MORE CLOUDINESS AND PSBL MVFR CONDS EXPECTED WEST OF
RIC.


OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
SUN. AN AREA OF LOW PRES MOVG UP THE EAST COAST MAY BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHC OF RAIN FOR NE NC AND SE VA LATE SUN
INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NELY TO ELY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON IS RESULTING FROM HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NEW ENGLAND. GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON
ALLOWING FOR GUSTS OF 12-19KT ESPECIALLY AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO BUILD TODAY WITH
3 TO 4 FT SEAS OFF DUCK NC AND OFF OCEAN CITY. SEAS OFF SOUTHEAST
VA REMAIN AROUND 3 FT. SEAS SOUTH OF DUCK HAVE BEEN BUILDING TO 5
TO 6 FT AND SEAS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BUILD TO MARGINAL SCA LATER
TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SCA HEADLINES GO INTO EFFECT FOR ALL THE
COASTAL WATERS AT 1 AM.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SAT AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY OFF THE NC COAST. THE
LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
PASSING WELL OFF THE VA COAST LATE SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
NELY TO NLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND BAY FOR MOST OF THE
WEEKEND. SCA CONDITIONS FOR WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM
BASED ON THE GRADIENT WIND FORECAST. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ELEVATED (4-5 FT) THRU SAT...BEFORE SUBSIDING ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH WINDS TURNING OFFSHORE. SCA HAVE BEEN
EXTENDED INTO SAT NIGHT AND MAY NEED TO EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY FOR
SEAS.

SFC LOW LIFTS NE OFF THE COAST LATE SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY
BUILD TO 5 FT AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. NW WINDS 10-15 KT ON
MONDAY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME N-NE ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LOCK IN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND EXTEND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF NELY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LATEST DROUGHT INFO SHOWING AN AREA OF ABNORMALLY DRY CNDTNS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF VA. THIS INCLUDES AREAS N OF I 64 & RT 360 (INCLUDING
THE RIC METRO AREA) IN AKQ FA. OTHER THAN SCT CONVECTION WITH THE
FRNT SUN EVE...XTNDD MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF RELIEF
FOR THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
     SATURDAY EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NCZ102.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ098.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
     SATURDAY EVENING FOR VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/ESS
NEAR TERM...ALB/ESS
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...JAO
HYDROLOGY...















000
FXUS61 KPHI 200109
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
909 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TO
OUR NORTHWEST SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE TO OUR
SOUTH, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
MONDAY. A WEAKENING FRONT MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY,
BEFORE THE HIGH FULLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
ESTF FOR 930 PM UPDATE: PATCHES OF SC SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT IN THE WEAK EASTERLY FLOW AND FORMED/REFORMED JUST BELOW
THE INVERSION NEAR 3000 FT. TIMING WHEN THIS HAPPENS IS UNCERTAIN.
TEMPS WILL HAVE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY MAJOR
CHANGES. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE...MAINLY NEAR AND NW OF I95.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC
WATERS ON SATURDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WHILE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE PATTERN IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS
WILL ALLOW THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC TO RIDGE BACK
WESTWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WILL PROMOTE WAA IN
THE LOW LEVELS. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS THAT ARE 5-10F
WARMER ON SATURDAY THAN TODAY. SATURDAY MAY POTENTIALLY BE THE FIRST
DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SINCE SEP 11, ALBEIT NOT MUCH MORE THAN
A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE.

MODEL BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DEPICT A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER INITIALLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS A RESULT OF THE ONSHORE FLOW AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. THE 12Z NAM TRIES TO MIX OUT MOISTURE AND RESULTANT CLOUDS
RATHER QUICKLY (BY 15Z) ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA WHILE THE 12Z GFS
INDICATES A MUCH CLOUDIER SOLUTION ALONG AND EAST OF THE FALL LINE
THRU MUCH OF THE DAY AS MARINE AIR IS STUBBORN TO MIX OUT. DEEPER
MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AS FORECAST BY THE 12Z WOULD INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST WITH THE ONLY
DISCERNIBLE FORCING MECHANISM BEING LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT. KEPT
POPS VERY LOW DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AND CONFINED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS TO COASTAL LOCALES SINCE MOISTURE FLUX IF FORECAST TO BE
GREATEST OFFSHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE PULLS AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AT THE SAME TIME, AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE EAST COAST NEAR THE CAROLINA
COASTS. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AND PASS EAST OF OUR AREA, BUT
WILL LIKELY NOT PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR AREA TO BRING ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS BEFORE THE FRONT APPROACHES AND PUSHES IT
NORTHEASTWARD. WE MAY HAVE ANOTHER POSSIBILITY FOR LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG AND/OR DRIZZLE AS THE LOW APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE
LOW LEVELS MOISTEN. SO WE HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ENTERING OUR WESTERN AREAS DURING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE SWEEPING ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY EVENING
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS AND QPF MOSTLY TO
OUR WEST DURING THE DAY, BEFORE LOWERING AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH OUR AREA SUNDAY EVENING. SO WE WILL HAVE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS,
DIMINISHING TO LOW END CHANCE SUNDAY EVENING. THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA AND ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST DURING THE
DAY, BUT THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT WE LOSE THE INSTABILITY
BEFORE THE ACTIVITY REACHES OUR AREA. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION.

ON MONDAY, THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT TO SEA, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA ON
TUESDAY, BUT FOR NOW THE FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THEN HIGH PRESSURE FULLY BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WHICH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE AREA. ACTUALLY, THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS
LIKE OUR ONLY CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD, SO
LETS HOPE WE GET SOMETHING FROM IT.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE EXTENDED WITH
TEMPERATURES 5-10 ABOVE NORMAL. THEN TEMPERATURES RETURN CLOSER
TO NORMAL OR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...SCT CLOUDS AOA 3500 FT WITH PATCHY MVFR CIGS ALONG THE
COASTS. THE MVFR CIGS SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. I MAY
HAVE STARTED THE FILLING IN OF THE LOWER CIGS SEVERAL HOURS TOO
SOON? LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW.

SATURDAY...MVFR CIGS MAY BREAK TO BECOME VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FT
IN THE EARLY AFTN. LIGHT SE FLOW. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING
HOW QUICKLY LOW CLOUDS ERODE AND CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR. HAVE A
SHOWER IN THE TAF FOR KMIV AND KACY CLOSER TO THE COASTAL
INSTABILITY BURST. GFS AND NAM TSECTIONS SUGGEST SOMETIME DURING
THE AFTN...THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW TOPPED SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDS PROBABLE LATER ON WITH STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY LIFR
CONDITIONS IN DENSE FOG/STRATUS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. LIGHT WIND.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING THE
BECOMING VFR DURING THE DAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND LOWER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY W-NW WINDS 15-20 KNOTS MONDAY.
LESS GUSTY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOYS 44025 AND 44009 HAVE BEEN RESTORED TO SERVICE. THE COMPLETE
RESTORATION OF BUOY 44009 MAY BE DELAYED TIL JANUARY 2015?

EAST WINDS WILL PROBABLY BE BLOWING AT 15 KT ON SATURDAY. SEAS
WILL PROBABLY BE 4 TO 5 FT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE EXCEPTION WE WILL CANCEL THE FAR NNJ WATERS PORTION OF THE
ADVY BY 930 PM TONIGHT.

CONFIDENCE ON THE OVERALL SEAS AND WIND SCENARIO IS A BIT BELOW
AVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXTENDED AS SEAS
LOOK TO LINGER INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING LATER IN
THE NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WITH INCREASING WINDS. WINDS AND WAVES MAY
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING..

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND STAY BELOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
WE CONTINUED THE MDT RISK FOR FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ON SATURDAY FOR NJ. WE ARE USING 4 FT 7 SECONDS. THIS
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY MAY NEED FURTHER ADJUSTMENT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG 909
SHORT TERM...DRAG/KLEIN
LONG TERM...DRAG/ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 909
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON 909
RIP CURRENTS...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 200109
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
909 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TO
OUR NORTHWEST SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE TO OUR
SOUTH, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
MONDAY. A WEAKENING FRONT MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY,
BEFORE THE HIGH FULLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
ESTF FOR 930 PM UPDATE: PATCHES OF SC SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT IN THE WEAK EASTERLY FLOW AND FORMED/REFORMED JUST BELOW
THE INVERSION NEAR 3000 FT. TIMING WHEN THIS HAPPENS IS UNCERTAIN.
TEMPS WILL HAVE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY MAJOR
CHANGES. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE...MAINLY NEAR AND NW OF I95.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC
WATERS ON SATURDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WHILE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE PATTERN IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS
WILL ALLOW THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC TO RIDGE BACK
WESTWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WILL PROMOTE WAA IN
THE LOW LEVELS. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS THAT ARE 5-10F
WARMER ON SATURDAY THAN TODAY. SATURDAY MAY POTENTIALLY BE THE FIRST
DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SINCE SEP 11, ALBEIT NOT MUCH MORE THAN
A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE.

MODEL BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DEPICT A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER INITIALLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS A RESULT OF THE ONSHORE FLOW AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. THE 12Z NAM TRIES TO MIX OUT MOISTURE AND RESULTANT CLOUDS
RATHER QUICKLY (BY 15Z) ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA WHILE THE 12Z GFS
INDICATES A MUCH CLOUDIER SOLUTION ALONG AND EAST OF THE FALL LINE
THRU MUCH OF THE DAY AS MARINE AIR IS STUBBORN TO MIX OUT. DEEPER
MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AS FORECAST BY THE 12Z WOULD INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST WITH THE ONLY
DISCERNIBLE FORCING MECHANISM BEING LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT. KEPT
POPS VERY LOW DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AND CONFINED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS TO COASTAL LOCALES SINCE MOISTURE FLUX IF FORECAST TO BE
GREATEST OFFSHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE PULLS AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AT THE SAME TIME, AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE EAST COAST NEAR THE CAROLINA
COASTS. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AND PASS EAST OF OUR AREA, BUT
WILL LIKELY NOT PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR AREA TO BRING ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS BEFORE THE FRONT APPROACHES AND PUSHES IT
NORTHEASTWARD. WE MAY HAVE ANOTHER POSSIBILITY FOR LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG AND/OR DRIZZLE AS THE LOW APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE
LOW LEVELS MOISTEN. SO WE HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ENTERING OUR WESTERN AREAS DURING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE SWEEPING ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY EVENING
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS AND QPF MOSTLY TO
OUR WEST DURING THE DAY, BEFORE LOWERING AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH OUR AREA SUNDAY EVENING. SO WE WILL HAVE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS,
DIMINISHING TO LOW END CHANCE SUNDAY EVENING. THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA AND ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST DURING THE
DAY, BUT THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT WE LOSE THE INSTABILITY
BEFORE THE ACTIVITY REACHES OUR AREA. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION.

ON MONDAY, THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT TO SEA, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA ON
TUESDAY, BUT FOR NOW THE FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THEN HIGH PRESSURE FULLY BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WHICH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE AREA. ACTUALLY, THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS
LIKE OUR ONLY CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD, SO
LETS HOPE WE GET SOMETHING FROM IT.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE EXTENDED WITH
TEMPERATURES 5-10 ABOVE NORMAL. THEN TEMPERATURES RETURN CLOSER
TO NORMAL OR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...SCT CLOUDS AOA 3500 FT WITH PATCHY MVFR CIGS ALONG THE
COASTS. THE MVFR CIGS SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. I MAY
HAVE STARTED THE FILLING IN OF THE LOWER CIGS SEVERAL HOURS TOO
SOON? LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW.

SATURDAY...MVFR CIGS MAY BREAK TO BECOME VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FT
IN THE EARLY AFTN. LIGHT SE FLOW. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING
HOW QUICKLY LOW CLOUDS ERODE AND CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR. HAVE A
SHOWER IN THE TAF FOR KMIV AND KACY CLOSER TO THE COASTAL
INSTABILITY BURST. GFS AND NAM TSECTIONS SUGGEST SOMETIME DURING
THE AFTN...THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW TOPPED SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDS PROBABLE LATER ON WITH STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY LIFR
CONDITIONS IN DENSE FOG/STRATUS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. LIGHT WIND.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING THE
BECOMING VFR DURING THE DAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND LOWER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY W-NW WINDS 15-20 KNOTS MONDAY.
LESS GUSTY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOYS 44025 AND 44009 HAVE BEEN RESTORED TO SERVICE. THE COMPLETE
RESTORATION OF BUOY 44009 MAY BE DELAYED TIL JANUARY 2015?

EAST WINDS WILL PROBABLY BE BLOWING AT 15 KT ON SATURDAY. SEAS
WILL PROBABLY BE 4 TO 5 FT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE EXCEPTION WE WILL CANCEL THE FAR NNJ WATERS PORTION OF THE
ADVY BY 930 PM TONIGHT.

CONFIDENCE ON THE OVERALL SEAS AND WIND SCENARIO IS A BIT BELOW
AVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXTENDED AS SEAS
LOOK TO LINGER INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING LATER IN
THE NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WITH INCREASING WINDS. WINDS AND WAVES MAY
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING..

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND STAY BELOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
WE CONTINUED THE MDT RISK FOR FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ON SATURDAY FOR NJ. WE ARE USING 4 FT 7 SECONDS. THIS
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY MAY NEED FURTHER ADJUSTMENT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG 909
SHORT TERM...DRAG/KLEIN
LONG TERM...DRAG/ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 909
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON 909
RIP CURRENTS...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200013
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
813 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ON SATURDAY AND
LIFTS UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON SUNDAY. A QUICK MOVING COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND IS IN CONTROL OF THE
REGIONS WEATHER THIS EVENING...BUT MOISTURE HAS BEEN TRAPPED UNDER
THE RIDGE TODAY AND WITH THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW...THE CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR. BUT THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE SEEN MUCH OF
THE CLOUDS OVER VA/ERN NC BREAK UP. OVER LWR MD ERN SHORE...THE
MOISTURE HAS STREAMED IN OFF THE ATLANTIC AND PROVIDE A PERIOD OF
BROKEN CLOUDS. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WWD INTO CENTRAL MD AND ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING
THIS EVENING. OVER VA...THE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
THE PIEDMONT AND ALLOW FOR CLEARING THIS EVENING. WITH THE GENERAL
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKY TONIGHT RADIATIVE COOLING SHOULD BE GOOD
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST SO HAVE GONE A LITTLE COOLER THERE TOWARD
THE MAV NUMBERS.

ON SATURDAY...THE SFC HIGH TO THE NE RETREATS AND A DEVELOPING LOW
ALONG THE SC COAST WILL ORGANIZE. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE
EASTERLY FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS AND
KEPT A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST. IN
LAND...THE SFC RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE CLOUDS AT BAY FOR AREAS WEST
OF A LINE FROM XSA/AKQ/FKN/ASJ. THE CLOUD WILL BE THICKER ACROSS
ERN NC AS THE UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS WILL ALSO BE THICKENING DURING
THE DAY. FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE WARMED VALUES INLAND WITH THE
SUNSHINE EXPECTED...ALONG THE COAST HOWEVER...DID TRIM THE HIGHS
BACK A LITTLE UNDER THE GUIDANCE DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MID RANGE PERIOD. THE
CLOSE LOW ALOFT THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW IS
FORECAST TO OPEN UP AND BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT AS A STRONGER TROUGH
DIGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKE STATES. THIS WILL KEEP
THE LOW FROM BRINGING MORE MOISTURE AND PCPN INLAND...WITH THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION REMAINING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
STORM OFF SHORE. SO HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ALONG
THE COAST SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE REMOVING THE CHANCE
OF RAIN AFTER NOON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER SOME DURING
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY AWAY FROM
THE COAST ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH 850 TEMPS
CLIMBING TO AROUND 17C SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

THE COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. THE MODELS SHOW A VERY NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE WITH THE
FRONT AND THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS PA. WITH THE BEST
FORCING TO THE NORTH AND THE LIMITED MOISTURE...HAVE KEPT POPS IN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE EXCEPT IN THE NRN DELMARVA AND ALONG THE
SE COAST WHERE MOISTURE MAY BE A LITTLE MORE ABUNDANT. ONCE THE
FRONT CLEARS THE AREA BY MID MORNING MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA AND MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVES AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE THE NE.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE ERN CONUS
WITH THE EVOLVING AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN. AMPLIFIED PATTERN
WILL FEATURE A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED SECONDARY/REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED
ALONG THE FRONT (PWATS ~1.5 INCHES)...BUT HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING
WINDS ALOFT (JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH) WILL
PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE REGION. SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED POPS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE NRN
LOCAL AREA. THE BIGGER HEADLINE WITH THE FRONT WILL BE THE DRY AIR
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION POST FRONTAL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE W-NW. MON WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE COOLEST/DRIEST
AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT. REINFORCING SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE GREAT
LAKES-NE STATES TUES AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES OFF THE ERN
SEABOARD. MEANWHILE...MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROGRESS EWD OVER THE
CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO THE ERN CONUS TUES- WEDS. COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE PROGGED TO BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDS. UPPER/SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THURS. THE RESULT WILL BE
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

HIGHS WILL BE BELOW AVG THRU THE PERIOD...WITH TUES AND WEDS BEING
THE COLDEST DAYS AT NEARLY -1 STD DEV (LOW-MID 70S). WENT A LITTLE
ABOVE WPC GUIDANCE AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S
INLAND TO LOW 60S NEAR THE COAST. FEW LOCALES IN THE PIEDMONT MAY
DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EAST WINDS WILL RULE FOR THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. LOW CLOUDS HAVE LARGELY
CLEARED OVER ERN PORTIONS...PARTLY DUE TO THE LOSS OF HEATING. MADE
USE OF THE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS FOR THE CLOUD FORECASTS. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR FOG AT RIC AND SBY BUT MODELS HAVE OVERDONE THE FOG IN
RECENT WEEKS AND SEE LITTLE REASON TO GO IFR FOR SATURDAY MORNING.
DUE TO THE EXPECTATION OF CONDITIONS GETTING NEAR SATURATION AT
RIC/SBY...INCLUDED MVFR FOG BEGINNING AT 10Z. ALSO HAVE SOME SCT
STRATUS AT SOME OF THE SITES FOR A FEW HOURS NEAR SUNRISE.

SATURDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO FRIDAY BUT WITH MORE CLOUDS
TOWARD THE COAST AND LESS INLAND. THERE IS A SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS
LATE IN THE DAY OVER SE VA/NE NC DUE TO MOISTURE FROM LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. HAVE VFR AND DRY AT EACH OF THE SITES.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SHOULD MOVE
FARTHER AWAY AND KEEP ITS MOISTURE TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW SUNDAY AND CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE PSBL WITH THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
TAKES OVER AGAIN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
7 PM UPDATE...SEAS ARE BUILDING OVER FAR NRN PORTIONS AND STARTED
SCA AT 7 PM FOR THE MD COASTAL WATERS. THE REST OF THE SCA STILL
BEGINS AT 05Z/1 AM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NELY TO ELY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON IS RESULTING FROM HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NEW ENGLAND. GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON
ALLOWING FOR GUSTS OF 12-19KT ESPECIALLY AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY
AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO BUILD TODAY
WITH 3 TO 4 FT SEAS OFF DUCK NC AND OFF OCEAN CITY. SEAS OFF
SOUTHEAST VA REMAIN AROUND 3 FT. SEAS SOUTH OF DUCK HAVE BEEN
BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT AND SEAS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BUILD TO
MARGINAL SCA LATER TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SCA HEADLINES GO INTO
EFFECT FOR ALL THE COASTAL WATERS AT 1 AM.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SAT AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY OFF THE NC COAST. THE
LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
PASSING WELL OFF THE VA COAST LATE SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
NELY TO NLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND BAY FOR MOST OF THE
WEEKEND. SCA CONDITIONS FOR WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM
BASED ON THE GRADIENT WIND FORECAST. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ELEVATED (4-5 FT) THRU SAT...BEFORE SUBSIDING ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH WINDS TURNING OFFSHORE. SCA HAVE BEEN
EXTENDED INTO SAT NIGHT AND MAY NEED TO EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY FOR
SEAS.

SFC LOW LIFTS NE OFF THE COAST LATE SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY
BUILD TO 5 FT AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. NW WINDS 10-15 KT ON
MONDAY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME N-NE ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LOCK IN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND EXTEND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF NELY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LATEST DROUGHT INFO SHOWING AN AREA OF ABNORMALLY DRY CNDTNS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF VA. THIS INCLUDES AREAS N OF I 64 & RT 360 (INCLUDING
THE RIC METRO AREA) IN AKQ FA. OTHER THAN SCT CONVECTION WITH THE
FRNT SUN EVE...XTNDD MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF RELIEF
FOR THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT SATURDAY THROUGH
     SATURDAY EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT SATURDAY THROUGH
     SATURDAY EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT SATURDAY THROUGH
     SATURDAY EVENING FOR VAZ098.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT SATURDAY THROUGH
     SATURDAY EVENING FOR VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/ESS
NEAR TERM...ALB/ESS
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LSA/JAO
HYDROLOGY...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200013
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
813 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ON SATURDAY AND
LIFTS UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON SUNDAY. A QUICK MOVING COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND IS IN CONTROL OF THE
REGIONS WEATHER THIS EVENING...BUT MOISTURE HAS BEEN TRAPPED UNDER
THE RIDGE TODAY AND WITH THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW...THE CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR. BUT THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE SEEN MUCH OF
THE CLOUDS OVER VA/ERN NC BREAK UP. OVER LWR MD ERN SHORE...THE
MOISTURE HAS STREAMED IN OFF THE ATLANTIC AND PROVIDE A PERIOD OF
BROKEN CLOUDS. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WWD INTO CENTRAL MD AND ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING
THIS EVENING. OVER VA...THE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
THE PIEDMONT AND ALLOW FOR CLEARING THIS EVENING. WITH THE GENERAL
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKY TONIGHT RADIATIVE COOLING SHOULD BE GOOD
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST SO HAVE GONE A LITTLE COOLER THERE TOWARD
THE MAV NUMBERS.

ON SATURDAY...THE SFC HIGH TO THE NE RETREATS AND A DEVELOPING LOW
ALONG THE SC COAST WILL ORGANIZE. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE
EASTERLY FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS AND
KEPT A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST. IN
LAND...THE SFC RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE CLOUDS AT BAY FOR AREAS WEST
OF A LINE FROM XSA/AKQ/FKN/ASJ. THE CLOUD WILL BE THICKER ACROSS
ERN NC AS THE UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS WILL ALSO BE THICKENING DURING
THE DAY. FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE WARMED VALUES INLAND WITH THE
SUNSHINE EXPECTED...ALONG THE COAST HOWEVER...DID TRIM THE HIGHS
BACK A LITTLE UNDER THE GUIDANCE DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MID RANGE PERIOD. THE
CLOSE LOW ALOFT THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW IS
FORECAST TO OPEN UP AND BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT AS A STRONGER TROUGH
DIGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKE STATES. THIS WILL KEEP
THE LOW FROM BRINGING MORE MOISTURE AND PCPN INLAND...WITH THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION REMAINING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
STORM OFF SHORE. SO HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ALONG
THE COAST SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE REMOVING THE CHANCE
OF RAIN AFTER NOON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER SOME DURING
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY AWAY FROM
THE COAST ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH 850 TEMPS
CLIMBING TO AROUND 17C SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

THE COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. THE MODELS SHOW A VERY NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE WITH THE
FRONT AND THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS PA. WITH THE BEST
FORCING TO THE NORTH AND THE LIMITED MOISTURE...HAVE KEPT POPS IN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE EXCEPT IN THE NRN DELMARVA AND ALONG THE
SE COAST WHERE MOISTURE MAY BE A LITTLE MORE ABUNDANT. ONCE THE
FRONT CLEARS THE AREA BY MID MORNING MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA AND MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVES AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE THE NE.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE ERN CONUS
WITH THE EVOLVING AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN. AMPLIFIED PATTERN
WILL FEATURE A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED SECONDARY/REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED
ALONG THE FRONT (PWATS ~1.5 INCHES)...BUT HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING
WINDS ALOFT (JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH) WILL
PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE REGION. SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED POPS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE NRN
LOCAL AREA. THE BIGGER HEADLINE WITH THE FRONT WILL BE THE DRY AIR
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION POST FRONTAL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE W-NW. MON WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE COOLEST/DRIEST
AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT. REINFORCING SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE GREAT
LAKES-NE STATES TUES AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES OFF THE ERN
SEABOARD. MEANWHILE...MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROGRESS EWD OVER THE
CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO THE ERN CONUS TUES- WEDS. COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE PROGGED TO BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDS. UPPER/SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THURS. THE RESULT WILL BE
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

HIGHS WILL BE BELOW AVG THRU THE PERIOD...WITH TUES AND WEDS BEING
THE COLDEST DAYS AT NEARLY -1 STD DEV (LOW-MID 70S). WENT A LITTLE
ABOVE WPC GUIDANCE AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S
INLAND TO LOW 60S NEAR THE COAST. FEW LOCALES IN THE PIEDMONT MAY
DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EAST WINDS WILL RULE FOR THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. LOW CLOUDS HAVE LARGELY
CLEARED OVER ERN PORTIONS...PARTLY DUE TO THE LOSS OF HEATING. MADE
USE OF THE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS FOR THE CLOUD FORECASTS. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR FOG AT RIC AND SBY BUT MODELS HAVE OVERDONE THE FOG IN
RECENT WEEKS AND SEE LITTLE REASON TO GO IFR FOR SATURDAY MORNING.
DUE TO THE EXPECTATION OF CONDITIONS GETTING NEAR SATURATION AT
RIC/SBY...INCLUDED MVFR FOG BEGINNING AT 10Z. ALSO HAVE SOME SCT
STRATUS AT SOME OF THE SITES FOR A FEW HOURS NEAR SUNRISE.

SATURDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO FRIDAY BUT WITH MORE CLOUDS
TOWARD THE COAST AND LESS INLAND. THERE IS A SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS
LATE IN THE DAY OVER SE VA/NE NC DUE TO MOISTURE FROM LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. HAVE VFR AND DRY AT EACH OF THE SITES.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SHOULD MOVE
FARTHER AWAY AND KEEP ITS MOISTURE TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW SUNDAY AND CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE PSBL WITH THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
TAKES OVER AGAIN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
7 PM UPDATE...SEAS ARE BUILDING OVER FAR NRN PORTIONS AND STARTED
SCA AT 7 PM FOR THE MD COASTAL WATERS. THE REST OF THE SCA STILL
BEGINS AT 05Z/1 AM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NELY TO ELY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON IS RESULTING FROM HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NEW ENGLAND. GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON
ALLOWING FOR GUSTS OF 12-19KT ESPECIALLY AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY
AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO BUILD TODAY
WITH 3 TO 4 FT SEAS OFF DUCK NC AND OFF OCEAN CITY. SEAS OFF
SOUTHEAST VA REMAIN AROUND 3 FT. SEAS SOUTH OF DUCK HAVE BEEN
BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT AND SEAS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BUILD TO
MARGINAL SCA LATER TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SCA HEADLINES GO INTO
EFFECT FOR ALL THE COASTAL WATERS AT 1 AM.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SAT AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY OFF THE NC COAST. THE
LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
PASSING WELL OFF THE VA COAST LATE SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
NELY TO NLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND BAY FOR MOST OF THE
WEEKEND. SCA CONDITIONS FOR WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM
BASED ON THE GRADIENT WIND FORECAST. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ELEVATED (4-5 FT) THRU SAT...BEFORE SUBSIDING ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH WINDS TURNING OFFSHORE. SCA HAVE BEEN
EXTENDED INTO SAT NIGHT AND MAY NEED TO EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY FOR
SEAS.

SFC LOW LIFTS NE OFF THE COAST LATE SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY
BUILD TO 5 FT AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. NW WINDS 10-15 KT ON
MONDAY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME N-NE ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LOCK IN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND EXTEND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF NELY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LATEST DROUGHT INFO SHOWING AN AREA OF ABNORMALLY DRY CNDTNS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF VA. THIS INCLUDES AREAS N OF I 64 & RT 360 (INCLUDING
THE RIC METRO AREA) IN AKQ FA. OTHER THAN SCT CONVECTION WITH THE
FRNT SUN EVE...XTNDD MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF RELIEF
FOR THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT SATURDAY THROUGH
     SATURDAY EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT SATURDAY THROUGH
     SATURDAY EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT SATURDAY THROUGH
     SATURDAY EVENING FOR VAZ098.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT SATURDAY THROUGH
     SATURDAY EVENING FOR VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/ESS
NEAR TERM...ALB/ESS
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LSA/JAO
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 192215
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
615 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY AS
SOUTHERLY WIND WARMS TEMPERATURES UP. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE EARLY EVE UPDATE.

PREVIOUS...
BROAD SFC HIGH FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL ENSURE DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. AS THE HIGH HAS SLOWLY
PIVOTED EAST OVER THE LAST DAY OR TWO...OUR AREA HAS FOUND ITSELF
ON THE SW QUADRANT...BRINGING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA. THIS
SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS BEEN ADVECTING MID-ATLANTIC MOISTURE ALONG THE
ERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS AND IS CURRENTLY MANIFESTING ITSELF
IN INCREASED CLOUD COVER EVIDENT ON THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE ALTOCU DEVELOPMENT SPREAD WEST WITH
SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOISTURE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE SOME TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE LOWER
TERRAIN...BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AS SFC GRADIENT BEGINS TO
TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE SUNDAY COLD FRONT. AM TRENDING LOWER WITH
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...BUT INCREASED BL FLOW ALONE SHOULD
PRECLUDE EXTENSIVE FOG DEVELOPMENT. WARM SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY TO REACH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH FLIRTING WITH THE 80 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MSTR WILL INCR SAT NGT ON SWLY WIND AHEAD OF A CDFNT THAT IS XPCD
TO CROSS THE RGN ON SUN. THIS INCRG MSTR WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
FALLING TOO AGGRESSIVELY SAT NGT...WITH MINIMA IN THE UPR 50S-LWR
60S. SHWRS FORMING ALONG THE ADVCG FRONT MAY MOVE INTO FAR NWRN
ZONES BY LATE SAT NGT.

500 MB SHRTWV TROF WILL BGN TO ACQUIRE NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE TILT
ON SUN AS IT CROSSES THE SRN GRTLKS. THE CONCURRENCE OF INCRG
SHEAR AS THE JET STRENGTHENS...CONTD MSTR ADVCTN AHEAD OF
CDFNT...AND INCRG LIFT SHOULD PROMOTE DVLPMT OF CNVCTV LINE ALONG
THE SURGING FRONT.

THE INTENSITY OF THE LINE WILL DEPEND UPON AMT OF SUNSHINE THAT
OCCURS AHD OF THE BNDRY. PROVIDED DP CNVCTN DVLPS...THERE WILL BE
A POTL FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS WITH ORGANIZED CNVCTV LINE SEGMENTS.
THIS POTL WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO ATTM.

POPS WERE INCRD CONSIDERABLY ON SUN IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE TRENDS.
BEST CHC FOR PCPN APPEARS TO BE SUN AFTN AS CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.
ANY SHWRS WILL SHIFT EWD BY EARLY EVE...WITH PERHAPS SOME LAKE-
EFFECT SHWRS FORMING ACRS NRN ZONES SUN NGT.

SFC HIPRES MOVES INTO THE RGN BY MON...BRINGING AN END TO PCPN AND
PROMOTING COOLER TEMPERATURES THRU MON NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL DRY AND COOL PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WL CONT WITH SFC WIND PRECLUDING FOG WHILE VEERING
TO THE SOUTH...AND GUSTING NR 20 KT BY SAT AFTN.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
GENERAL RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH A SUNDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 192215
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
615 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY AS
SOUTHERLY WIND WARMS TEMPERATURES UP. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE EARLY EVE UPDATE.

PREVIOUS...
BROAD SFC HIGH FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL ENSURE DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. AS THE HIGH HAS SLOWLY
PIVOTED EAST OVER THE LAST DAY OR TWO...OUR AREA HAS FOUND ITSELF
ON THE SW QUADRANT...BRINGING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA. THIS
SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS BEEN ADVECTING MID-ATLANTIC MOISTURE ALONG THE
ERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS AND IS CURRENTLY MANIFESTING ITSELF
IN INCREASED CLOUD COVER EVIDENT ON THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE ALTOCU DEVELOPMENT SPREAD WEST WITH
SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOISTURE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE SOME TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE LOWER
TERRAIN...BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AS SFC GRADIENT BEGINS TO
TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE SUNDAY COLD FRONT. AM TRENDING LOWER WITH
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...BUT INCREASED BL FLOW ALONE SHOULD
PRECLUDE EXTENSIVE FOG DEVELOPMENT. WARM SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY TO REACH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH FLIRTING WITH THE 80 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MSTR WILL INCR SAT NGT ON SWLY WIND AHEAD OF A CDFNT THAT IS XPCD
TO CROSS THE RGN ON SUN. THIS INCRG MSTR WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
FALLING TOO AGGRESSIVELY SAT NGT...WITH MINIMA IN THE UPR 50S-LWR
60S. SHWRS FORMING ALONG THE ADVCG FRONT MAY MOVE INTO FAR NWRN
ZONES BY LATE SAT NGT.

500 MB SHRTWV TROF WILL BGN TO ACQUIRE NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE TILT
ON SUN AS IT CROSSES THE SRN GRTLKS. THE CONCURRENCE OF INCRG
SHEAR AS THE JET STRENGTHENS...CONTD MSTR ADVCTN AHEAD OF
CDFNT...AND INCRG LIFT SHOULD PROMOTE DVLPMT OF CNVCTV LINE ALONG
THE SURGING FRONT.

THE INTENSITY OF THE LINE WILL DEPEND UPON AMT OF SUNSHINE THAT
OCCURS AHD OF THE BNDRY. PROVIDED DP CNVCTN DVLPS...THERE WILL BE
A POTL FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS WITH ORGANIZED CNVCTV LINE SEGMENTS.
THIS POTL WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO ATTM.

POPS WERE INCRD CONSIDERABLY ON SUN IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE TRENDS.
BEST CHC FOR PCPN APPEARS TO BE SUN AFTN AS CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.
ANY SHWRS WILL SHIFT EWD BY EARLY EVE...WITH PERHAPS SOME LAKE-
EFFECT SHWRS FORMING ACRS NRN ZONES SUN NGT.

SFC HIPRES MOVES INTO THE RGN BY MON...BRINGING AN END TO PCPN AND
PROMOTING COOLER TEMPERATURES THRU MON NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL DRY AND COOL PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WL CONT WITH SFC WIND PRECLUDING FOG WHILE VEERING
TO THE SOUTH...AND GUSTING NR 20 KT BY SAT AFTN.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
GENERAL RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH A SUNDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS61 KPHI 192210
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
610 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TO
OUR NORTHWEST SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE TO OUR
SOUTH, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
MONDAY. A WEAKENING FRONT MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY,
BEFORE THE HIGH FULLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
ESTF FOR 630 PM UPDATE BACKGROUND INFO AT 526 PM: PATCHES OF SC SHOULD
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT IN THE WEAK EASTERLY FLOW AND
FORMED/REFORMED JUST BELOW THE INVERSION NEAR 3000 FT. IN THE MEANTIME
TEMPS WERE UPDATED WITH FASTER EVENING DROPS THEN LEVEL OUT LATER
AS SKIES CLOUD OVER. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE...MAINLY NEAR AND NW
OF I95.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC
WATERS ON SATURDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WHILE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE PATTERN IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS
WILL ALLOW THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC TO RIDGE BACK
WESTWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WILL PROMOTE WAA IN
THE LOW LEVELS. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS THAT ARE 5-10F
WARMER ON SATURDAY THAN TODAY. SATURDAY MAY POTENTIALLY BE THE FIRST
DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SINCE SEP 11, ALBEIT NOT MUCH MORE THAN
A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE.

MODEL BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DEPICT A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER INITIALLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS A RESULT OF THE ONSHORE FLOW AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. THE 12Z NAM TRIES TO MIX OUT MOISTURE AND RESULTANT CLOUDS
RATHER QUICKLY (BY 15Z) ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA WHILE THE 12Z GFS
INDICATES A MUCH CLOUDIER SOLUTION ALONG AND EAST OF THE FALL LINE
THRU MUCH OF THE DAY AS MARINE AIR IS STUBBORN TO MIX OUT. DEEPER
MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AS FORECAST BY THE 12Z WOULD INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST WITH THE ONLY
DISCERNIBLE FORCING MECHANISM BEING LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT. KEPT
POPS VERY LOW DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AND CONFINED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS TO COASTAL LOCALES SINCE MOISTURE FLUX IF FORECAST TO BE
GREATEST OFFSHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE PULLS AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AT THE SAME TIME, AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE EAST COAST NEAR THE CAROLINA
COASTS. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AND PASS EAST OF OUR AREA, BUT
WILL LIKELY NOT PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR AREA TO BRING ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS BEFORE THE FRONT APPROACHES AND PUSHES IT
NORTHEASTWARD. WE MAY HAVE ANOTHER POSSIBILITY FOR LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG AND/OR DRIZZLE AS THE LOW APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE
LOW LEVELS MOISTEN. SO WE HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ENTERING OUR WESTERN AREAS DURING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE SWEEPING ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY EVENING
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS AND QPF MOSTLY TO
OUR WEST DURING THE DAY, BEFORE LOWERING AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH OUR AREA SUNDAY EVENING. SO WE WILL HAVE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS,
DIMINISHING TO LOW END CHANCE SUNDAY EVENING. THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA AND ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST DURING THE
DAY, BUT THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT WE LOSE THE INSTABILITY
BEFORE THE ACTIVITY REACHES OUR AREA. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION.

ON MONDAY, THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT TO SEA, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA ON
TUESDAY, BUT FOR NOW THE FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THEN HIGH PRESSURE FULLY BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WHICH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE AREA. ACTUALLY, THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS
LIKE OUR ONLY CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD, SO
LETS HOPE WE GET SOMETHING FROM IT.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE EXTENDED WITH
TEMPERATURES 5-10 ABOVE NORMAL. THEN TEMPERATURES RETURN CLOSER
TO NORMAL OR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...SCT CLOUDS AOA 3500 FT WITH PATCHY MVFR CIGS ALONG THE
COAST. THE MVFR CIGS SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW.

SATURDAY...MVFR CIGS MAY BREAK TO BECOME VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FT
IN THE EARLY AFTN. LIGHT SE FLOW. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING
HOW QUICKLY LOW CLOUDS ERODE AND CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR.


OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDS PROBABLE LATER ON WITH STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY LIFR
CONDITIONS IN DENSE FOG/STRATUS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. LIGHT WIND.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING THE
BECOMING VFR DURING THE DAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND LOWER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY W-NW WINDS 15-20 KNOTS MONDAY.
LESS GUSTY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOYS 44025 AND 44009 HAVE BEEN RETORED TO SERVICE. THE COMPLETE
RESTORATION OF BUOY 44009 MAY BE DELAYED TIL JANUARY 2015?

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN 10-20 KT THRU THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST TONIGHT. BUOYS
AROUND THE AREA SHOW SEAS HAVE INCREASED TO 5 FT AND THUS HAVE
EXPANDED SCA TO INCLUDE ALL ATLANTIC MARINE ZONES THRU 2 AM. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX IN THE NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT AS
THE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVERHEAD. SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT
THRU SATURDAY SOUTH OF MANASQUAN INLET WITH 5 FT SEAS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXTENDED AS SEAS LOOK
TO LINGER INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING LATER IN THE
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WITH INCREASING WINDS. WINDS AND WAVES MAY
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING..

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND STAY BELOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
WITH LONG PERIOD SWELLS STILL PRESENT TODAY, A TIGHTENING GRADIENT
AND INCREASING WAVE HEIGHTS, IN HOUSE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
A MODERATE RISK TODAY FOR NJ AND DE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/KLEIN 609
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/KLEIN/ROBERTSON 609
MARINE...DRAG/KLEIN/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 192210
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
610 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TO
OUR NORTHWEST SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE TO OUR
SOUTH, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
MONDAY. A WEAKENING FRONT MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY,
BEFORE THE HIGH FULLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
ESTF FOR 630 PM UPDATE BACKGROUND INFO AT 526 PM: PATCHES OF SC SHOULD
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT IN THE WEAK EASTERLY FLOW AND
FORMED/REFORMED JUST BELOW THE INVERSION NEAR 3000 FT. IN THE MEANTIME
TEMPS WERE UPDATED WITH FASTER EVENING DROPS THEN LEVEL OUT LATER
AS SKIES CLOUD OVER. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE...MAINLY NEAR AND NW
OF I95.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC
WATERS ON SATURDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WHILE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE PATTERN IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS
WILL ALLOW THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC TO RIDGE BACK
WESTWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WILL PROMOTE WAA IN
THE LOW LEVELS. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS THAT ARE 5-10F
WARMER ON SATURDAY THAN TODAY. SATURDAY MAY POTENTIALLY BE THE FIRST
DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SINCE SEP 11, ALBEIT NOT MUCH MORE THAN
A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE.

MODEL BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DEPICT A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER INITIALLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS A RESULT OF THE ONSHORE FLOW AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. THE 12Z NAM TRIES TO MIX OUT MOISTURE AND RESULTANT CLOUDS
RATHER QUICKLY (BY 15Z) ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA WHILE THE 12Z GFS
INDICATES A MUCH CLOUDIER SOLUTION ALONG AND EAST OF THE FALL LINE
THRU MUCH OF THE DAY AS MARINE AIR IS STUBBORN TO MIX OUT. DEEPER
MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AS FORECAST BY THE 12Z WOULD INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST WITH THE ONLY
DISCERNIBLE FORCING MECHANISM BEING LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT. KEPT
POPS VERY LOW DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AND CONFINED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS TO COASTAL LOCALES SINCE MOISTURE FLUX IF FORECAST TO BE
GREATEST OFFSHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE PULLS AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AT THE SAME TIME, AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE EAST COAST NEAR THE CAROLINA
COASTS. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AND PASS EAST OF OUR AREA, BUT
WILL LIKELY NOT PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR AREA TO BRING ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS BEFORE THE FRONT APPROACHES AND PUSHES IT
NORTHEASTWARD. WE MAY HAVE ANOTHER POSSIBILITY FOR LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG AND/OR DRIZZLE AS THE LOW APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE
LOW LEVELS MOISTEN. SO WE HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ENTERING OUR WESTERN AREAS DURING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE SWEEPING ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY EVENING
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS AND QPF MOSTLY TO
OUR WEST DURING THE DAY, BEFORE LOWERING AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH OUR AREA SUNDAY EVENING. SO WE WILL HAVE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS,
DIMINISHING TO LOW END CHANCE SUNDAY EVENING. THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA AND ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST DURING THE
DAY, BUT THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT WE LOSE THE INSTABILITY
BEFORE THE ACTIVITY REACHES OUR AREA. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION.

ON MONDAY, THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT TO SEA, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA ON
TUESDAY, BUT FOR NOW THE FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THEN HIGH PRESSURE FULLY BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WHICH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE AREA. ACTUALLY, THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS
LIKE OUR ONLY CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD, SO
LETS HOPE WE GET SOMETHING FROM IT.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE EXTENDED WITH
TEMPERATURES 5-10 ABOVE NORMAL. THEN TEMPERATURES RETURN CLOSER
TO NORMAL OR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...SCT CLOUDS AOA 3500 FT WITH PATCHY MVFR CIGS ALONG THE
COAST. THE MVFR CIGS SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW.

SATURDAY...MVFR CIGS MAY BREAK TO BECOME VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FT
IN THE EARLY AFTN. LIGHT SE FLOW. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING
HOW QUICKLY LOW CLOUDS ERODE AND CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR.


OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDS PROBABLE LATER ON WITH STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY LIFR
CONDITIONS IN DENSE FOG/STRATUS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. LIGHT WIND.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING THE
BECOMING VFR DURING THE DAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND LOWER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY W-NW WINDS 15-20 KNOTS MONDAY.
LESS GUSTY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOYS 44025 AND 44009 HAVE BEEN RETORED TO SERVICE. THE COMPLETE
RESTORATION OF BUOY 44009 MAY BE DELAYED TIL JANUARY 2015?

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN 10-20 KT THRU THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST TONIGHT. BUOYS
AROUND THE AREA SHOW SEAS HAVE INCREASED TO 5 FT AND THUS HAVE
EXPANDED SCA TO INCLUDE ALL ATLANTIC MARINE ZONES THRU 2 AM. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX IN THE NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT AS
THE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVERHEAD. SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT
THRU SATURDAY SOUTH OF MANASQUAN INLET WITH 5 FT SEAS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXTENDED AS SEAS LOOK
TO LINGER INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING LATER IN THE
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WITH INCREASING WINDS. WINDS AND WAVES MAY
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING..

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND STAY BELOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
WITH LONG PERIOD SWELLS STILL PRESENT TODAY, A TIGHTENING GRADIENT
AND INCREASING WAVE HEIGHTS, IN HOUSE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
A MODERATE RISK TODAY FOR NJ AND DE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/KLEIN 609
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/KLEIN/ROBERTSON 609
MARINE...DRAG/KLEIN/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 192002
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
402 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ON SATURDAY AND
LIFTS UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON SUNDAY. A QUICK MOVING COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND IS IN CONTROL OF THE
REGIONS WEATHER THIS EVENING...BUT MOISTURE HAS BEEN TRAPPED UNDER
THE RIDGE TODAY AND WITH THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW...THE CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR. BUT THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE SEEN MUCH OF
THE CLOUDS OVER VA/ERN NC BREAK UP. OVER LWR MD ERN SHORE...THE
MOISTURE HAS STREAMED IN OFF THE ATLANTIC AND PROVIDE A PERIOD OF
BROKEN CLOUDS. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WWD INTO CENTRAL MD AND ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING
THIS EVENING. OVER VA...THE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
THE PIEDMONT AND ALLOW FOR CLEARING THIS EVENING. WITH THE GENERAL
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKY TONIGHT RADIATIVE COOLING SHOULD BE GOOD
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST SO HAVE GONE A LITTLE COOLER THERE TOWARD
THE MAV NUMBERS.

ON SATURDAY...THE SFC HIGH TO THE NE RETREATS AND A DEVELOPING LOW
ALONG THE SC COAST WILL ORGANIZE. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE
EASTERLY FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS AND
KEPT A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST. IN
LAND...THE SFC RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE CLOUDS AT BAY FOR AREAS WEST
OF A LINE FROM XSA/AKQ/FKN/ASJ. THE CLOUD WILL BE THICKER ACROSS
ERN NC AS THE UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS WILL ALSO BE THICKENING DURING
THE DAY. FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE WARMED VALUES INLAND WITH THE
SUNSHINE EXPECTED...ALONG THE COAST HOWEVER...DID TRIM THE HIGHS
BACK A LITTLE UNDER THE GUIDANCE DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MID RANGE PERIOD. THE
CLOSE LOW ALOFT THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW IS
FORECAST TO OPEN UP AND BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT AS A STRONGER TROUGH
DIGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKE STATES. THIS WILL KEEP
THE LOW FROM BRINGING MORE MOISTURE AND PCPN INLAND...WITH THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION REMAINING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
STORM OFF SHORE. SO HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ALONG
THE COAST SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE REMOVING THE CHANCE
OF RAIN AFTER NOON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER SOME DURING
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY AWAY FROM
THE COAST ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH 850 TEMPS
CLIMBING TO AROUND 17C SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

THE COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. THE MODELS SHOW A VERY NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE WITH THE
FRONT AND THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS PA. WITH THE BEST
FORCING TO THE NORTH AND THE LIMITED MOISTURE...HAVE KEPT POPS IN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE EXCEPT IN THE NRN DELMARVA AND ALONG THE
SE COAST WHERE MOISTURE MAY BE A LITTLE MORE ABUNDANT. ONCE THE
FRONT CLEARS THE AREA BY MID MORNING MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA AND MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVES AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE THE NE.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE ERN CONUS
WITH THE EVOLVING AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN. AMPLIFIED PATTERN
WILL FEATURE A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED SECONDARY/REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED
ALONG THE FRONT (PWATS ~1.5 INCHES)...BUT HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING
WINDS ALOFT (JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH) WILL
PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE REGION. SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED POPS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE NRN
LOCAL AREA. THE BIGGER HEADLINE WITH THE FRONT WILL BE THE DRY AIR
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION POST FRONTAL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE W-NW. MON WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE COOLEST/DRIEST
AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT. REINFORCING SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE GREAT
LAKES-NE STATES TUES AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES OFF THE ERN
SEABOARD. MEANWHILE...MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROGRESS EWD OVER THE
CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO THE ERN CONUS TUES- WEDS. COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE PROGGED TO BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDS. UPPER/SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THURS. THE RESULT WILL BE
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

HIGHS WILL BE BELOW AVG THRU THE PERIOD...WITH TUES AND WEDS BEING
THE COLDEST DAYS AT NEARLY -1 STD DEV (LOW-MID 70S). WENT A LITTLE
ABOVE WPC GUIDANCE AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S
INLAND TO LOW 60S NEAR THE COAST. FEW LOCALES IN THE PIEDMONT MAY
DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH NE-E WINDS OVER THE
CWA. VFR CONDS GENERALLY PREVAIL OVER THE REGION BUT WITH MID AND
LOW CLOUDS DUE TO PLENTY OF MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC. WINDS ARE
MOSTLY 10 KT OR LESS BUT SOME GUSTY CONDS PERSIST CLOSE TO THE
COAST. A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE REGION DUE TO A WEAK SFC
TROF OR UPSLOPE IN THE PIEDMONT. NO SIG WX EXPECTED THRU THE
PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THIN OUT THIS AFTN/EVENING FROM RIC
EAST...WHILE MORE CLOUDINESS AND PSBL MVFR CONDS EXPECTED WEST OF
RIC.


OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
SUN. AN AREA OF LOW PRES MOVG UP THE EAST COAST MAY BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHC OF RAIN FOR NE NC AND SE VA LATE SUN
INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NELY TO ELY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON IS RESULTING FROM HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NEW ENGLAND. GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON
ALLOWING FOR GUSTS OF 12-19KT ESPECIALLY AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO BUILD TODAY WITH
3 TO 4 FT SEAS OFF DUCK NC AND OFF OCEAN CITY. SEAS OFF SOUTHEAST
VA REMAIN AROUND 3 FT. SEAS SOUTH OF DUCK HAVE BEEN BUILDING TO 5
TO 6 FT AND SEAS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BUILD TO MARGINAL SCA LATER
TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SCA HEADLINES GO INTO EFFECT FOR ALL THE
COASTAL WATERS AT 1 AM.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SAT AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY OFF THE NC COAST. THE
LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
PASSING WELL OFF THE VA COAST LATE SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
NELY TO NLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND BAY FOR MOST OF THE
WEEKEND. SCA CONDITIONS FOR WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM
BASED ON THE GRADIENT WIND FORECAST. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ELEVATED (4-5 FT) THRU SAT...BEFORE SUBSIDING ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH WINDS TURNING OFFSHORE. SCA HAVE BEEN
EXTENDED INTO SAT NIGHT AND MAY NEED TO EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY FOR
SEAS.

SFC LOW LIFTS NE OFF THE COAST LATE SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY
BUILD TO 5 FT AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. NW WINDS 10-15 KT ON
MONDAY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME N-NE ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LOCK IN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND EXTEND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF NELY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LATEST DROUGHT INFO SHOWING AN AREA OF ABNORMALLY DRY CNDTNS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF VA. THIS INCLUDES AREAS N OF I 64 & RT 360 (INCLUDING
THE RIC METRO AREA) IN AKQ FA. OTHER THAN SCT CONVECTION WITH THE
FRNT SUN EVE...XTNDD MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF RELIEF
FOR THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS
NEAR TERM...ESS
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...JAO
HYDROLOGY...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 192002
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
402 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ON SATURDAY AND
LIFTS UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON SUNDAY. A QUICK MOVING COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND IS IN CONTROL OF THE
REGIONS WEATHER THIS EVENING...BUT MOISTURE HAS BEEN TRAPPED UNDER
THE RIDGE TODAY AND WITH THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW...THE CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR. BUT THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE SEEN MUCH OF
THE CLOUDS OVER VA/ERN NC BREAK UP. OVER LWR MD ERN SHORE...THE
MOISTURE HAS STREAMED IN OFF THE ATLANTIC AND PROVIDE A PERIOD OF
BROKEN CLOUDS. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WWD INTO CENTRAL MD AND ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING
THIS EVENING. OVER VA...THE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
THE PIEDMONT AND ALLOW FOR CLEARING THIS EVENING. WITH THE GENERAL
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKY TONIGHT RADIATIVE COOLING SHOULD BE GOOD
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST SO HAVE GONE A LITTLE COOLER THERE TOWARD
THE MAV NUMBERS.

ON SATURDAY...THE SFC HIGH TO THE NE RETREATS AND A DEVELOPING LOW
ALONG THE SC COAST WILL ORGANIZE. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE
EASTERLY FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS AND
KEPT A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST. IN
LAND...THE SFC RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE CLOUDS AT BAY FOR AREAS WEST
OF A LINE FROM XSA/AKQ/FKN/ASJ. THE CLOUD WILL BE THICKER ACROSS
ERN NC AS THE UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS WILL ALSO BE THICKENING DURING
THE DAY. FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE WARMED VALUES INLAND WITH THE
SUNSHINE EXPECTED...ALONG THE COAST HOWEVER...DID TRIM THE HIGHS
BACK A LITTLE UNDER THE GUIDANCE DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MID RANGE PERIOD. THE
CLOSE LOW ALOFT THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW IS
FORECAST TO OPEN UP AND BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT AS A STRONGER TROUGH
DIGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKE STATES. THIS WILL KEEP
THE LOW FROM BRINGING MORE MOISTURE AND PCPN INLAND...WITH THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION REMAINING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
STORM OFF SHORE. SO HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ALONG
THE COAST SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE REMOVING THE CHANCE
OF RAIN AFTER NOON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER SOME DURING
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY AWAY FROM
THE COAST ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH 850 TEMPS
CLIMBING TO AROUND 17C SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

THE COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. THE MODELS SHOW A VERY NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE WITH THE
FRONT AND THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS PA. WITH THE BEST
FORCING TO THE NORTH AND THE LIMITED MOISTURE...HAVE KEPT POPS IN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE EXCEPT IN THE NRN DELMARVA AND ALONG THE
SE COAST WHERE MOISTURE MAY BE A LITTLE MORE ABUNDANT. ONCE THE
FRONT CLEARS THE AREA BY MID MORNING MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA AND MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVES AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE THE NE.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE ERN CONUS
WITH THE EVOLVING AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN. AMPLIFIED PATTERN
WILL FEATURE A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED SECONDARY/REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED
ALONG THE FRONT (PWATS ~1.5 INCHES)...BUT HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING
WINDS ALOFT (JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH) WILL
PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE REGION. SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED POPS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE NRN
LOCAL AREA. THE BIGGER HEADLINE WITH THE FRONT WILL BE THE DRY AIR
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION POST FRONTAL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE W-NW. MON WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE COOLEST/DRIEST
AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT. REINFORCING SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE GREAT
LAKES-NE STATES TUES AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES OFF THE ERN
SEABOARD. MEANWHILE...MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROGRESS EWD OVER THE
CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO THE ERN CONUS TUES- WEDS. COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE PROGGED TO BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDS. UPPER/SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THURS. THE RESULT WILL BE
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

HIGHS WILL BE BELOW AVG THRU THE PERIOD...WITH TUES AND WEDS BEING
THE COLDEST DAYS AT NEARLY -1 STD DEV (LOW-MID 70S). WENT A LITTLE
ABOVE WPC GUIDANCE AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S
INLAND TO LOW 60S NEAR THE COAST. FEW LOCALES IN THE PIEDMONT MAY
DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH NE-E WINDS OVER THE
CWA. VFR CONDS GENERALLY PREVAIL OVER THE REGION BUT WITH MID AND
LOW CLOUDS DUE TO PLENTY OF MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC. WINDS ARE
MOSTLY 10 KT OR LESS BUT SOME GUSTY CONDS PERSIST CLOSE TO THE
COAST. A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE REGION DUE TO A WEAK SFC
TROF OR UPSLOPE IN THE PIEDMONT. NO SIG WX EXPECTED THRU THE
PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THIN OUT THIS AFTN/EVENING FROM RIC
EAST...WHILE MORE CLOUDINESS AND PSBL MVFR CONDS EXPECTED WEST OF
RIC.


OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
SUN. AN AREA OF LOW PRES MOVG UP THE EAST COAST MAY BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHC OF RAIN FOR NE NC AND SE VA LATE SUN
INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NELY TO ELY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON IS RESULTING FROM HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NEW ENGLAND. GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON
ALLOWING FOR GUSTS OF 12-19KT ESPECIALLY AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO BUILD TODAY WITH
3 TO 4 FT SEAS OFF DUCK NC AND OFF OCEAN CITY. SEAS OFF SOUTHEAST
VA REMAIN AROUND 3 FT. SEAS SOUTH OF DUCK HAVE BEEN BUILDING TO 5
TO 6 FT AND SEAS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BUILD TO MARGINAL SCA LATER
TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SCA HEADLINES GO INTO EFFECT FOR ALL THE
COASTAL WATERS AT 1 AM.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SAT AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY OFF THE NC COAST. THE
LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
PASSING WELL OFF THE VA COAST LATE SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
NELY TO NLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND BAY FOR MOST OF THE
WEEKEND. SCA CONDITIONS FOR WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM
BASED ON THE GRADIENT WIND FORECAST. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ELEVATED (4-5 FT) THRU SAT...BEFORE SUBSIDING ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH WINDS TURNING OFFSHORE. SCA HAVE BEEN
EXTENDED INTO SAT NIGHT AND MAY NEED TO EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY FOR
SEAS.

SFC LOW LIFTS NE OFF THE COAST LATE SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY
BUILD TO 5 FT AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. NW WINDS 10-15 KT ON
MONDAY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME N-NE ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LOCK IN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND EXTEND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF NELY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LATEST DROUGHT INFO SHOWING AN AREA OF ABNORMALLY DRY CNDTNS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF VA. THIS INCLUDES AREAS N OF I 64 & RT 360 (INCLUDING
THE RIC METRO AREA) IN AKQ FA. OTHER THAN SCT CONVECTION WITH THE
FRNT SUN EVE...XTNDD MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF RELIEF
FOR THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS
NEAR TERM...ESS
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...JAO
HYDROLOGY...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 192002
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
402 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ON SATURDAY AND
LIFTS UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON SUNDAY. A QUICK MOVING COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND IS IN CONTROL OF THE
REGIONS WEATHER THIS EVENING...BUT MOISTURE HAS BEEN TRAPPED UNDER
THE RIDGE TODAY AND WITH THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW...THE CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR. BUT THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE SEEN MUCH OF
THE CLOUDS OVER VA/ERN NC BREAK UP. OVER LWR MD ERN SHORE...THE
MOISTURE HAS STREAMED IN OFF THE ATLANTIC AND PROVIDE A PERIOD OF
BROKEN CLOUDS. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WWD INTO CENTRAL MD AND ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING
THIS EVENING. OVER VA...THE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
THE PIEDMONT AND ALLOW FOR CLEARING THIS EVENING. WITH THE GENERAL
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKY TONIGHT RADIATIVE COOLING SHOULD BE GOOD
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST SO HAVE GONE A LITTLE COOLER THERE TOWARD
THE MAV NUMBERS.

ON SATURDAY...THE SFC HIGH TO THE NE RETREATS AND A DEVELOPING LOW
ALONG THE SC COAST WILL ORGANIZE. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE
EASTERLY FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS AND
KEPT A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST. IN
LAND...THE SFC RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE CLOUDS AT BAY FOR AREAS WEST
OF A LINE FROM XSA/AKQ/FKN/ASJ. THE CLOUD WILL BE THICKER ACROSS
ERN NC AS THE UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS WILL ALSO BE THICKENING DURING
THE DAY. FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE WARMED VALUES INLAND WITH THE
SUNSHINE EXPECTED...ALONG THE COAST HOWEVER...DID TRIM THE HIGHS
BACK A LITTLE UNDER THE GUIDANCE DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MID RANGE PERIOD. THE
CLOSE LOW ALOFT THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW IS
FORECAST TO OPEN UP AND BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT AS A STRONGER TROUGH
DIGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKE STATES. THIS WILL KEEP
THE LOW FROM BRINGING MORE MOISTURE AND PCPN INLAND...WITH THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION REMAINING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
STORM OFF SHORE. SO HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ALONG
THE COAST SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE REMOVING THE CHANCE
OF RAIN AFTER NOON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER SOME DURING
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY AWAY FROM
THE COAST ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH 850 TEMPS
CLIMBING TO AROUND 17C SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

THE COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. THE MODELS SHOW A VERY NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE WITH THE
FRONT AND THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS PA. WITH THE BEST
FORCING TO THE NORTH AND THE LIMITED MOISTURE...HAVE KEPT POPS IN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE EXCEPT IN THE NRN DELMARVA AND ALONG THE
SE COAST WHERE MOISTURE MAY BE A LITTLE MORE ABUNDANT. ONCE THE
FRONT CLEARS THE AREA BY MID MORNING MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA AND MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVES AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE THE NE.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE ERN CONUS
WITH THE EVOLVING AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN. AMPLIFIED PATTERN
WILL FEATURE A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED SECONDARY/REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED
ALONG THE FRONT (PWATS ~1.5 INCHES)...BUT HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING
WINDS ALOFT (JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH) WILL
PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE REGION. SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED POPS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE NRN
LOCAL AREA. THE BIGGER HEADLINE WITH THE FRONT WILL BE THE DRY AIR
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION POST FRONTAL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE W-NW. MON WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE COOLEST/DRIEST
AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT. REINFORCING SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE GREAT
LAKES-NE STATES TUES AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES OFF THE ERN
SEABOARD. MEANWHILE...MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROGRESS EWD OVER THE
CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO THE ERN CONUS TUES- WEDS. COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE PROGGED TO BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDS. UPPER/SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THURS. THE RESULT WILL BE
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

HIGHS WILL BE BELOW AVG THRU THE PERIOD...WITH TUES AND WEDS BEING
THE COLDEST DAYS AT NEARLY -1 STD DEV (LOW-MID 70S). WENT A LITTLE
ABOVE WPC GUIDANCE AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S
INLAND TO LOW 60S NEAR THE COAST. FEW LOCALES IN THE PIEDMONT MAY
DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH NE-E WINDS OVER THE
CWA. VFR CONDS GENERALLY PREVAIL OVER THE REGION BUT WITH MID AND
LOW CLOUDS DUE TO PLENTY OF MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC. WINDS ARE
MOSTLY 10 KT OR LESS BUT SOME GUSTY CONDS PERSIST CLOSE TO THE
COAST. A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE REGION DUE TO A WEAK SFC
TROF OR UPSLOPE IN THE PIEDMONT. NO SIG WX EXPECTED THRU THE
PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THIN OUT THIS AFTN/EVENING FROM RIC
EAST...WHILE MORE CLOUDINESS AND PSBL MVFR CONDS EXPECTED WEST OF
RIC.


OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
SUN. AN AREA OF LOW PRES MOVG UP THE EAST COAST MAY BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHC OF RAIN FOR NE NC AND SE VA LATE SUN
INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NELY TO ELY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON IS RESULTING FROM HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NEW ENGLAND. GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON
ALLOWING FOR GUSTS OF 12-19KT ESPECIALLY AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO BUILD TODAY WITH
3 TO 4 FT SEAS OFF DUCK NC AND OFF OCEAN CITY. SEAS OFF SOUTHEAST
VA REMAIN AROUND 3 FT. SEAS SOUTH OF DUCK HAVE BEEN BUILDING TO 5
TO 6 FT AND SEAS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BUILD TO MARGINAL SCA LATER
TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SCA HEADLINES GO INTO EFFECT FOR ALL THE
COASTAL WATERS AT 1 AM.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SAT AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY OFF THE NC COAST. THE
LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
PASSING WELL OFF THE VA COAST LATE SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
NELY TO NLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND BAY FOR MOST OF THE
WEEKEND. SCA CONDITIONS FOR WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM
BASED ON THE GRADIENT WIND FORECAST. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ELEVATED (4-5 FT) THRU SAT...BEFORE SUBSIDING ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH WINDS TURNING OFFSHORE. SCA HAVE BEEN
EXTENDED INTO SAT NIGHT AND MAY NEED TO EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY FOR
SEAS.

SFC LOW LIFTS NE OFF THE COAST LATE SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY
BUILD TO 5 FT AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. NW WINDS 10-15 KT ON
MONDAY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME N-NE ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LOCK IN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND EXTEND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF NELY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LATEST DROUGHT INFO SHOWING AN AREA OF ABNORMALLY DRY CNDTNS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF VA. THIS INCLUDES AREAS N OF I 64 & RT 360 (INCLUDING
THE RIC METRO AREA) IN AKQ FA. OTHER THAN SCT CONVECTION WITH THE
FRNT SUN EVE...XTNDD MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF RELIEF
FOR THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS
NEAR TERM...ESS
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...JAO
HYDROLOGY...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 192002
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
402 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ON SATURDAY AND
LIFTS UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON SUNDAY. A QUICK MOVING COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND IS IN CONTROL OF THE
REGIONS WEATHER THIS EVENING...BUT MOISTURE HAS BEEN TRAPPED UNDER
THE RIDGE TODAY AND WITH THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW...THE CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR. BUT THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE SEEN MUCH OF
THE CLOUDS OVER VA/ERN NC BREAK UP. OVER LWR MD ERN SHORE...THE
MOISTURE HAS STREAMED IN OFF THE ATLANTIC AND PROVIDE A PERIOD OF
BROKEN CLOUDS. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WWD INTO CENTRAL MD AND ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING
THIS EVENING. OVER VA...THE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
THE PIEDMONT AND ALLOW FOR CLEARING THIS EVENING. WITH THE GENERAL
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKY TONIGHT RADIATIVE COOLING SHOULD BE GOOD
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST SO HAVE GONE A LITTLE COOLER THERE TOWARD
THE MAV NUMBERS.

ON SATURDAY...THE SFC HIGH TO THE NE RETREATS AND A DEVELOPING LOW
ALONG THE SC COAST WILL ORGANIZE. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE
EASTERLY FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS AND
KEPT A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST. IN
LAND...THE SFC RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE CLOUDS AT BAY FOR AREAS WEST
OF A LINE FROM XSA/AKQ/FKN/ASJ. THE CLOUD WILL BE THICKER ACROSS
ERN NC AS THE UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS WILL ALSO BE THICKENING DURING
THE DAY. FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE WARMED VALUES INLAND WITH THE
SUNSHINE EXPECTED...ALONG THE COAST HOWEVER...DID TRIM THE HIGHS
BACK A LITTLE UNDER THE GUIDANCE DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MID RANGE PERIOD. THE
CLOSE LOW ALOFT THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW IS
FORECAST TO OPEN UP AND BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT AS A STRONGER TROUGH
DIGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKE STATES. THIS WILL KEEP
THE LOW FROM BRINGING MORE MOISTURE AND PCPN INLAND...WITH THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION REMAINING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
STORM OFF SHORE. SO HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ALONG
THE COAST SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE REMOVING THE CHANCE
OF RAIN AFTER NOON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER SOME DURING
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY AWAY FROM
THE COAST ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH 850 TEMPS
CLIMBING TO AROUND 17C SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

THE COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. THE MODELS SHOW A VERY NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE WITH THE
FRONT AND THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS PA. WITH THE BEST
FORCING TO THE NORTH AND THE LIMITED MOISTURE...HAVE KEPT POPS IN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE EXCEPT IN THE NRN DELMARVA AND ALONG THE
SE COAST WHERE MOISTURE MAY BE A LITTLE MORE ABUNDANT. ONCE THE
FRONT CLEARS THE AREA BY MID MORNING MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA AND MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVES AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE THE NE.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE ERN CONUS
WITH THE EVOLVING AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN. AMPLIFIED PATTERN
WILL FEATURE A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED SECONDARY/REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED
ALONG THE FRONT (PWATS ~1.5 INCHES)...BUT HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING
WINDS ALOFT (JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH) WILL
PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE REGION. SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED POPS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE NRN
LOCAL AREA. THE BIGGER HEADLINE WITH THE FRONT WILL BE THE DRY AIR
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION POST FRONTAL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE W-NW. MON WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE COOLEST/DRIEST
AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT. REINFORCING SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE GREAT
LAKES-NE STATES TUES AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES OFF THE ERN
SEABOARD. MEANWHILE...MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROGRESS EWD OVER THE
CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO THE ERN CONUS TUES- WEDS. COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE PROGGED TO BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDS. UPPER/SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THURS. THE RESULT WILL BE
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

HIGHS WILL BE BELOW AVG THRU THE PERIOD...WITH TUES AND WEDS BEING
THE COLDEST DAYS AT NEARLY -1 STD DEV (LOW-MID 70S). WENT A LITTLE
ABOVE WPC GUIDANCE AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S
INLAND TO LOW 60S NEAR THE COAST. FEW LOCALES IN THE PIEDMONT MAY
DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH NE-E WINDS OVER THE
CWA. VFR CONDS GENERALLY PREVAIL OVER THE REGION BUT WITH MID AND
LOW CLOUDS DUE TO PLENTY OF MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC. WINDS ARE
MOSTLY 10 KT OR LESS BUT SOME GUSTY CONDS PERSIST CLOSE TO THE
COAST. A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE REGION DUE TO A WEAK SFC
TROF OR UPSLOPE IN THE PIEDMONT. NO SIG WX EXPECTED THRU THE
PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THIN OUT THIS AFTN/EVENING FROM RIC
EAST...WHILE MORE CLOUDINESS AND PSBL MVFR CONDS EXPECTED WEST OF
RIC.


OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
SUN. AN AREA OF LOW PRES MOVG UP THE EAST COAST MAY BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHC OF RAIN FOR NE NC AND SE VA LATE SUN
INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NELY TO ELY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON IS RESULTING FROM HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NEW ENGLAND. GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON
ALLOWING FOR GUSTS OF 12-19KT ESPECIALLY AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO BUILD TODAY WITH
3 TO 4 FT SEAS OFF DUCK NC AND OFF OCEAN CITY. SEAS OFF SOUTHEAST
VA REMAIN AROUND 3 FT. SEAS SOUTH OF DUCK HAVE BEEN BUILDING TO 5
TO 6 FT AND SEAS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BUILD TO MARGINAL SCA LATER
TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SCA HEADLINES GO INTO EFFECT FOR ALL THE
COASTAL WATERS AT 1 AM.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SAT AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY OFF THE NC COAST. THE
LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
PASSING WELL OFF THE VA COAST LATE SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
NELY TO NLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND BAY FOR MOST OF THE
WEEKEND. SCA CONDITIONS FOR WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM
BASED ON THE GRADIENT WIND FORECAST. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ELEVATED (4-5 FT) THRU SAT...BEFORE SUBSIDING ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH WINDS TURNING OFFSHORE. SCA HAVE BEEN
EXTENDED INTO SAT NIGHT AND MAY NEED TO EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY FOR
SEAS.

SFC LOW LIFTS NE OFF THE COAST LATE SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY
BUILD TO 5 FT AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. NW WINDS 10-15 KT ON
MONDAY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME N-NE ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LOCK IN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND EXTEND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF NELY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LATEST DROUGHT INFO SHOWING AN AREA OF ABNORMALLY DRY CNDTNS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF VA. THIS INCLUDES AREAS N OF I 64 & RT 360 (INCLUDING
THE RIC METRO AREA) IN AKQ FA. OTHER THAN SCT CONVECTION WITH THE
FRNT SUN EVE...XTNDD MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF RELIEF
FOR THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS
NEAR TERM...ESS
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...JAO
HYDROLOGY...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 191955
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
355 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TO
OUR NORTHWEST SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE TO OUR
SOUTH, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
MONDAY. A WEAKENING FRONT MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY,
BEFORE THE HIGH FULLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON.
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH THIS
EVENING BEFORE MOVING FARTHER OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. EASTERLY FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH THIS AFTERNOON HAS DRAWN RELATIVELY COOL/MOIST
MARINE LAYER INLAND.

STRATOCU HAS BEEN PERSISTENT SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF NJ- WHERE MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED AT THE TOP OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. THERE IS A BRIEF POTENTIAL FOR PARTIAL CLEARING
TOWARD SUNSET BUT EXPECT CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT UNDER CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW. FARTHER INLAND,MARINE LAYER NOT AS WELL ESTABLISHED
AND STRATOCU HAS BEEN ABLE TO SCT OUT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
CLOUDS OVER VA WILL SPREAD INTO EASTERN PA THROUGH TONIGHT AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT NEAR H8 STRENGTHENS AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH.

OFFICIAL MIN TEMP FORECAST FALLS ON THE WARMER ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE
AS RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP NOT IDEAL OWING TO THE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER THAT IS EXPECTED AND THE ONSHORE FLOW. THERE MAY BE A BETTER
SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS EVENING BEFORE THE CLOUDS ARRIVE
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. AREAS SUCH AS THE LEHIGH VALLEY, POCONOS AND
NORTHWEST NJ HAVE A POTENTIAL TO SEE FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC
WATERS ON SATURDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WHILE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE PATTERN IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS
WILL ALLOW THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC TO RIDGE BACK
WESTWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WILL PROMOTE WAA IN
THE LOW LEVELS. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS THAT ARE 5-10F
WARMER ON SATURDAY THAN TODAY. SATURDAY MAY POTENTIALLY BE THE FIRST
DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SINCE SEP 11, ALBEIT NOT MUCH MORE THAN
A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE.

MODEL BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DEPICT A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER INITIALLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS A RESULT OF THE ONSHORE FLOW AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. THE 12Z NAM TRIES TO MIX OUT MOISTURE AND RESULTANT CLOUDS
RATHER QUICKLY (BY 15Z) ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA WHILE THE 12Z GFS
INDICATES A MUCH CLOUDIER SOLUTION ALONG AND EAST OF THE FALL LINE
THRU MUCH OF THE DAY AS MARINE AIR IS STUBBORN TO MIX OUT. DEEPER
MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AS FORECAST BY THE 12Z WOULD INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST WITH THE ONLY
DISCERNIBLE FORCING MECHANISM BEING LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT. KEPT
POPS VERY LOW DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AND CONFINED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS TO COASTAL LOCALES SINCE MOISTURE FLUX IF FORECAST TO BE
GREATEST OFFSHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE PULLS AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AT THE SAME TIME, AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE EAST COAST NEAR THE CAROLINA
COASTS. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AND PASS EAST OF OUR AREA, BUT
WILL LIKELY NOT PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR AREA TO BRING ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS BEFORE THE FRONT APPROACHES AND PUSHES IT
NORTHEASTWARD. WE MAY HAVE ANOTHER POSSIBILITY FOR LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG AND/OR DRIZZLE AS THE LOW APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE
LOW LEVELS MOISTEN. SO WE HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ENTERING OUR WESTERN AREAS DURING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE SWEEPING ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY EVENING
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS AND QPF MOSTLY TO
OUR WEST DURING THE DAY, BEFORE LOWERING AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH OUR AREA SUNDAY EVENING. SO WE WILL HAVE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS,
DIMINISHING TO LOW END CHANCE SUNDAY EVENING. THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA AND ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST DURING THE
DAY, BUT THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT WE LOSE THE INSTABILITY
BEFORE THE ACTIVITY REACHES OUR AREA. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION.

ON MONDAY, THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT TO SEA, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA ON
TUESDAY, BUT FOR NOW THE FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THEN HIGH PRESSURE FULLY BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WHICH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE AREA. ACTUALLY, THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS
LIKE OUR ONLY CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD, SO
LETS HOPE WE GET SOMETHING FROM IT.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE EXTENDED WITH
TEMPERATURES 5-10 ABOVE NORMAL. THEN TEMPERATURES RETURN CLOSER
TO NORMAL OR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CIGS HAVE LIFTED TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS AS OF 19Z. THIS MARINE
STRATOCU ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BETWEEN 3-5 KFT THRU THIS EVE BEFORE
CIGS LOWER OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z AND CONTINUING THRU DAYBREAK. THERE IS MORE
UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING HOW QUICKLY LOW CLOUDS ERODE AND CIGS IMPROVE
TO VFR. THE MARINE LAYER WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ONCE LOW-LEVELS WINDS VEER OUT
OF THE SOUTH. CURRENT THINKING IS IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS MAY NOT
OCCUR UNTIL CLOSER TO MIDDAY FOR MOST TERMINALS, WHICH IS LATER THAN
INDICATED BY THE 12Z NAM.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT...LOWER CIGS AND/OR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING THE
BECOMING VFR DURING THE DAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND LOWER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY W-NW WINDS 15-20 KNOTS MONDAY.
LESS GUSTY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN 10-20 KT THRU THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST TONIGHT. BUOYS
AROUND THE AREA SHOW SEAS HAVE INCREASED TO 5 FT AND THUS HAVE
EXPANDED SCA TO INCLUDE ALL ATLANTIC MARINE ZONES THRU 2 AM. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX IN THE NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT AS THE
AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVERHEAD. SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU
SATURDAY SOUTH OF MANASQUAN INLET WITH 5 FT SEAS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXTENDED AS SEAS LOOK
TO LINGER INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING LATER IN THE
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WITH INCREASING WINDS. WINDS AND WAVES MAY
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING..

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND STAY BELOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
WITH LONG PERIOD SWELLS STILL PRESENT TODAY, A TIGHTENING GRADIENT
AND INCREASING WAVE HEIGHTS, IN HOUSE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
A MODERATE RISK TODAY FOR NJ AND DE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...KRUZDLO




000
FXUS61 KPHI 191955
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
355 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TO
OUR NORTHWEST SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE TO OUR
SOUTH, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
MONDAY. A WEAKENING FRONT MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY,
BEFORE THE HIGH FULLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON.
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH THIS
EVENING BEFORE MOVING FARTHER OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. EASTERLY FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH THIS AFTERNOON HAS DRAWN RELATIVELY COOL/MOIST
MARINE LAYER INLAND.

STRATOCU HAS BEEN PERSISTENT SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF NJ- WHERE MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED AT THE TOP OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. THERE IS A BRIEF POTENTIAL FOR PARTIAL CLEARING
TOWARD SUNSET BUT EXPECT CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT UNDER CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW. FARTHER INLAND,MARINE LAYER NOT AS WELL ESTABLISHED
AND STRATOCU HAS BEEN ABLE TO SCT OUT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
CLOUDS OVER VA WILL SPREAD INTO EASTERN PA THROUGH TONIGHT AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT NEAR H8 STRENGTHENS AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH.

OFFICIAL MIN TEMP FORECAST FALLS ON THE WARMER ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE
AS RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP NOT IDEAL OWING TO THE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER THAT IS EXPECTED AND THE ONSHORE FLOW. THERE MAY BE A BETTER
SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS EVENING BEFORE THE CLOUDS ARRIVE
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. AREAS SUCH AS THE LEHIGH VALLEY, POCONOS AND
NORTHWEST NJ HAVE A POTENTIAL TO SEE FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC
WATERS ON SATURDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WHILE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE PATTERN IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS
WILL ALLOW THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC TO RIDGE BACK
WESTWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WILL PROMOTE WAA IN
THE LOW LEVELS. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS THAT ARE 5-10F
WARMER ON SATURDAY THAN TODAY. SATURDAY MAY POTENTIALLY BE THE FIRST
DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SINCE SEP 11, ALBEIT NOT MUCH MORE THAN
A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE.

MODEL BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DEPICT A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER INITIALLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS A RESULT OF THE ONSHORE FLOW AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. THE 12Z NAM TRIES TO MIX OUT MOISTURE AND RESULTANT CLOUDS
RATHER QUICKLY (BY 15Z) ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA WHILE THE 12Z GFS
INDICATES A MUCH CLOUDIER SOLUTION ALONG AND EAST OF THE FALL LINE
THRU MUCH OF THE DAY AS MARINE AIR IS STUBBORN TO MIX OUT. DEEPER
MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AS FORECAST BY THE 12Z WOULD INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST WITH THE ONLY
DISCERNIBLE FORCING MECHANISM BEING LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT. KEPT
POPS VERY LOW DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AND CONFINED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS TO COASTAL LOCALES SINCE MOISTURE FLUX IF FORECAST TO BE
GREATEST OFFSHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE PULLS AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AT THE SAME TIME, AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE EAST COAST NEAR THE CAROLINA
COASTS. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AND PASS EAST OF OUR AREA, BUT
WILL LIKELY NOT PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR AREA TO BRING ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS BEFORE THE FRONT APPROACHES AND PUSHES IT
NORTHEASTWARD. WE MAY HAVE ANOTHER POSSIBILITY FOR LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG AND/OR DRIZZLE AS THE LOW APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE
LOW LEVELS MOISTEN. SO WE HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ENTERING OUR WESTERN AREAS DURING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE SWEEPING ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY EVENING
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS AND QPF MOSTLY TO
OUR WEST DURING THE DAY, BEFORE LOWERING AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH OUR AREA SUNDAY EVENING. SO WE WILL HAVE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS,
DIMINISHING TO LOW END CHANCE SUNDAY EVENING. THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA AND ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST DURING THE
DAY, BUT THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT WE LOSE THE INSTABILITY
BEFORE THE ACTIVITY REACHES OUR AREA. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION.

ON MONDAY, THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT TO SEA, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA ON
TUESDAY, BUT FOR NOW THE FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THEN HIGH PRESSURE FULLY BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WHICH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE AREA. ACTUALLY, THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS
LIKE OUR ONLY CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD, SO
LETS HOPE WE GET SOMETHING FROM IT.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE EXTENDED WITH
TEMPERATURES 5-10 ABOVE NORMAL. THEN TEMPERATURES RETURN CLOSER
TO NORMAL OR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CIGS HAVE LIFTED TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS AS OF 19Z. THIS MARINE
STRATOCU ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BETWEEN 3-5 KFT THRU THIS EVE BEFORE
CIGS LOWER OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z AND CONTINUING THRU DAYBREAK. THERE IS MORE
UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING HOW QUICKLY LOW CLOUDS ERODE AND CIGS IMPROVE
TO VFR. THE MARINE LAYER WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ONCE LOW-LEVELS WINDS VEER OUT
OF THE SOUTH. CURRENT THINKING IS IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS MAY NOT
OCCUR UNTIL CLOSER TO MIDDAY FOR MOST TERMINALS, WHICH IS LATER THAN
INDICATED BY THE 12Z NAM.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT...LOWER CIGS AND/OR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING THE
BECOMING VFR DURING THE DAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND LOWER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY W-NW WINDS 15-20 KNOTS MONDAY.
LESS GUSTY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN 10-20 KT THRU THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST TONIGHT. BUOYS
AROUND THE AREA SHOW SEAS HAVE INCREASED TO 5 FT AND THUS HAVE
EXPANDED SCA TO INCLUDE ALL ATLANTIC MARINE ZONES THRU 2 AM. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX IN THE NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT AS THE
AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVERHEAD. SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU
SATURDAY SOUTH OF MANASQUAN INLET WITH 5 FT SEAS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXTENDED AS SEAS LOOK
TO LINGER INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING LATER IN THE
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WITH INCREASING WINDS. WINDS AND WAVES MAY
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING..

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND STAY BELOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
WITH LONG PERIOD SWELLS STILL PRESENT TODAY, A TIGHTENING GRADIENT
AND INCREASING WAVE HEIGHTS, IN HOUSE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
A MODERATE RISK TODAY FOR NJ AND DE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...KRUZDLO




000
FXUS61 KPHI 191955
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
355 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TO
OUR NORTHWEST SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE TO OUR
SOUTH, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
MONDAY. A WEAKENING FRONT MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY,
BEFORE THE HIGH FULLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON.
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH THIS
EVENING BEFORE MOVING FARTHER OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. EASTERLY FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH THIS AFTERNOON HAS DRAWN RELATIVELY COOL/MOIST
MARINE LAYER INLAND.

STRATOCU HAS BEEN PERSISTENT SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF NJ- WHERE MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED AT THE TOP OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. THERE IS A BRIEF POTENTIAL FOR PARTIAL CLEARING
TOWARD SUNSET BUT EXPECT CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT UNDER CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW. FARTHER INLAND,MARINE LAYER NOT AS WELL ESTABLISHED
AND STRATOCU HAS BEEN ABLE TO SCT OUT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
CLOUDS OVER VA WILL SPREAD INTO EASTERN PA THROUGH TONIGHT AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT NEAR H8 STRENGTHENS AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH.

OFFICIAL MIN TEMP FORECAST FALLS ON THE WARMER ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE
AS RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP NOT IDEAL OWING TO THE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER THAT IS EXPECTED AND THE ONSHORE FLOW. THERE MAY BE A BETTER
SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS EVENING BEFORE THE CLOUDS ARRIVE
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. AREAS SUCH AS THE LEHIGH VALLEY, POCONOS AND
NORTHWEST NJ HAVE A POTENTIAL TO SEE FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC
WATERS ON SATURDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WHILE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE PATTERN IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS
WILL ALLOW THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC TO RIDGE BACK
WESTWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WILL PROMOTE WAA IN
THE LOW LEVELS. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS THAT ARE 5-10F
WARMER ON SATURDAY THAN TODAY. SATURDAY MAY POTENTIALLY BE THE FIRST
DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SINCE SEP 11, ALBEIT NOT MUCH MORE THAN
A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE.

MODEL BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DEPICT A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER INITIALLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS A RESULT OF THE ONSHORE FLOW AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. THE 12Z NAM TRIES TO MIX OUT MOISTURE AND RESULTANT CLOUDS
RATHER QUICKLY (BY 15Z) ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA WHILE THE 12Z GFS
INDICATES A MUCH CLOUDIER SOLUTION ALONG AND EAST OF THE FALL LINE
THRU MUCH OF THE DAY AS MARINE AIR IS STUBBORN TO MIX OUT. DEEPER
MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AS FORECAST BY THE 12Z WOULD INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST WITH THE ONLY
DISCERNIBLE FORCING MECHANISM BEING LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT. KEPT
POPS VERY LOW DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AND CONFINED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS TO COASTAL LOCALES SINCE MOISTURE FLUX IF FORECAST TO BE
GREATEST OFFSHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE PULLS AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AT THE SAME TIME, AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE EAST COAST NEAR THE CAROLINA
COASTS. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AND PASS EAST OF OUR AREA, BUT
WILL LIKELY NOT PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR AREA TO BRING ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS BEFORE THE FRONT APPROACHES AND PUSHES IT
NORTHEASTWARD. WE MAY HAVE ANOTHER POSSIBILITY FOR LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG AND/OR DRIZZLE AS THE LOW APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE
LOW LEVELS MOISTEN. SO WE HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ENTERING OUR WESTERN AREAS DURING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE SWEEPING ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY EVENING
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS AND QPF MOSTLY TO
OUR WEST DURING THE DAY, BEFORE LOWERING AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH OUR AREA SUNDAY EVENING. SO WE WILL HAVE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS,
DIMINISHING TO LOW END CHANCE SUNDAY EVENING. THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA AND ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST DURING THE
DAY, BUT THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT WE LOSE THE INSTABILITY
BEFORE THE ACTIVITY REACHES OUR AREA. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION.

ON MONDAY, THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT TO SEA, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA ON
TUESDAY, BUT FOR NOW THE FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THEN HIGH PRESSURE FULLY BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WHICH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE AREA. ACTUALLY, THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS
LIKE OUR ONLY CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD, SO
LETS HOPE WE GET SOMETHING FROM IT.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE EXTENDED WITH
TEMPERATURES 5-10 ABOVE NORMAL. THEN TEMPERATURES RETURN CLOSER
TO NORMAL OR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CIGS HAVE LIFTED TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS AS OF 19Z. THIS MARINE
STRATOCU ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BETWEEN 3-5 KFT THRU THIS EVE BEFORE
CIGS LOWER OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z AND CONTINUING THRU DAYBREAK. THERE IS MORE
UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING HOW QUICKLY LOW CLOUDS ERODE AND CIGS IMPROVE
TO VFR. THE MARINE LAYER WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ONCE LOW-LEVELS WINDS VEER OUT
OF THE SOUTH. CURRENT THINKING IS IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS MAY NOT
OCCUR UNTIL CLOSER TO MIDDAY FOR MOST TERMINALS, WHICH IS LATER THAN
INDICATED BY THE 12Z NAM.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT...LOWER CIGS AND/OR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING THE
BECOMING VFR DURING THE DAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND LOWER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY W-NW WINDS 15-20 KNOTS MONDAY.
LESS GUSTY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN 10-20 KT THRU THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST TONIGHT. BUOYS
AROUND THE AREA SHOW SEAS HAVE INCREASED TO 5 FT AND THUS HAVE
EXPANDED SCA TO INCLUDE ALL ATLANTIC MARINE ZONES THRU 2 AM. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX IN THE NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT AS THE
AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVERHEAD. SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU
SATURDAY SOUTH OF MANASQUAN INLET WITH 5 FT SEAS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXTENDED AS SEAS LOOK
TO LINGER INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING LATER IN THE
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WITH INCREASING WINDS. WINDS AND WAVES MAY
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING..

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND STAY BELOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
WITH LONG PERIOD SWELLS STILL PRESENT TODAY, A TIGHTENING GRADIENT
AND INCREASING WAVE HEIGHTS, IN HOUSE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
A MODERATE RISK TODAY FOR NJ AND DE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...KRUZDLO




000
FXUS61 KPHI 191955
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
355 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TO
OUR NORTHWEST SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE TO OUR
SOUTH, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
MONDAY. A WEAKENING FRONT MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY,
BEFORE THE HIGH FULLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON.
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH THIS
EVENING BEFORE MOVING FARTHER OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. EASTERLY FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH THIS AFTERNOON HAS DRAWN RELATIVELY COOL/MOIST
MARINE LAYER INLAND.

STRATOCU HAS BEEN PERSISTENT SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF NJ- WHERE MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED AT THE TOP OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. THERE IS A BRIEF POTENTIAL FOR PARTIAL CLEARING
TOWARD SUNSET BUT EXPECT CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT UNDER CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW. FARTHER INLAND,MARINE LAYER NOT AS WELL ESTABLISHED
AND STRATOCU HAS BEEN ABLE TO SCT OUT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
CLOUDS OVER VA WILL SPREAD INTO EASTERN PA THROUGH TONIGHT AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT NEAR H8 STRENGTHENS AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH.

OFFICIAL MIN TEMP FORECAST FALLS ON THE WARMER ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE
AS RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP NOT IDEAL OWING TO THE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER THAT IS EXPECTED AND THE ONSHORE FLOW. THERE MAY BE A BETTER
SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS EVENING BEFORE THE CLOUDS ARRIVE
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. AREAS SUCH AS THE LEHIGH VALLEY, POCONOS AND
NORTHWEST NJ HAVE A POTENTIAL TO SEE FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC
WATERS ON SATURDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WHILE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE PATTERN IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS
WILL ALLOW THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC TO RIDGE BACK
WESTWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WILL PROMOTE WAA IN
THE LOW LEVELS. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS THAT ARE 5-10F
WARMER ON SATURDAY THAN TODAY. SATURDAY MAY POTENTIALLY BE THE FIRST
DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SINCE SEP 11, ALBEIT NOT MUCH MORE THAN
A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE.

MODEL BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DEPICT A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER INITIALLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS A RESULT OF THE ONSHORE FLOW AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. THE 12Z NAM TRIES TO MIX OUT MOISTURE AND RESULTANT CLOUDS
RATHER QUICKLY (BY 15Z) ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA WHILE THE 12Z GFS
INDICATES A MUCH CLOUDIER SOLUTION ALONG AND EAST OF THE FALL LINE
THRU MUCH OF THE DAY AS MARINE AIR IS STUBBORN TO MIX OUT. DEEPER
MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AS FORECAST BY THE 12Z WOULD INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST WITH THE ONLY
DISCERNIBLE FORCING MECHANISM BEING LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT. KEPT
POPS VERY LOW DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AND CONFINED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS TO COASTAL LOCALES SINCE MOISTURE FLUX IF FORECAST TO BE
GREATEST OFFSHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE PULLS AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AT THE SAME TIME, AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE EAST COAST NEAR THE CAROLINA
COASTS. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AND PASS EAST OF OUR AREA, BUT
WILL LIKELY NOT PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR AREA TO BRING ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS BEFORE THE FRONT APPROACHES AND PUSHES IT
NORTHEASTWARD. WE MAY HAVE ANOTHER POSSIBILITY FOR LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG AND/OR DRIZZLE AS THE LOW APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE
LOW LEVELS MOISTEN. SO WE HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ENTERING OUR WESTERN AREAS DURING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE SWEEPING ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY EVENING
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS AND QPF MOSTLY TO
OUR WEST DURING THE DAY, BEFORE LOWERING AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH OUR AREA SUNDAY EVENING. SO WE WILL HAVE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS,
DIMINISHING TO LOW END CHANCE SUNDAY EVENING. THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA AND ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST DURING THE
DAY, BUT THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT WE LOSE THE INSTABILITY
BEFORE THE ACTIVITY REACHES OUR AREA. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION.

ON MONDAY, THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT TO SEA, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA ON
TUESDAY, BUT FOR NOW THE FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THEN HIGH PRESSURE FULLY BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WHICH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE AREA. ACTUALLY, THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS
LIKE OUR ONLY CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD, SO
LETS HOPE WE GET SOMETHING FROM IT.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE EXTENDED WITH
TEMPERATURES 5-10 ABOVE NORMAL. THEN TEMPERATURES RETURN CLOSER
TO NORMAL OR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CIGS HAVE LIFTED TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS AS OF 19Z. THIS MARINE
STRATOCU ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BETWEEN 3-5 KFT THRU THIS EVE BEFORE
CIGS LOWER OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z AND CONTINUING THRU DAYBREAK. THERE IS MORE
UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING HOW QUICKLY LOW CLOUDS ERODE AND CIGS IMPROVE
TO VFR. THE MARINE LAYER WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ONCE LOW-LEVELS WINDS VEER OUT
OF THE SOUTH. CURRENT THINKING IS IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS MAY NOT
OCCUR UNTIL CLOSER TO MIDDAY FOR MOST TERMINALS, WHICH IS LATER THAN
INDICATED BY THE 12Z NAM.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT...LOWER CIGS AND/OR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING THE
BECOMING VFR DURING THE DAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND LOWER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY W-NW WINDS 15-20 KNOTS MONDAY.
LESS GUSTY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN 10-20 KT THRU THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST TONIGHT. BUOYS
AROUND THE AREA SHOW SEAS HAVE INCREASED TO 5 FT AND THUS HAVE
EXPANDED SCA TO INCLUDE ALL ATLANTIC MARINE ZONES THRU 2 AM. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX IN THE NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT AS THE
AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVERHEAD. SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU
SATURDAY SOUTH OF MANASQUAN INLET WITH 5 FT SEAS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXTENDED AS SEAS LOOK
TO LINGER INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING LATER IN THE
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WITH INCREASING WINDS. WINDS AND WAVES MAY
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING..

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND STAY BELOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
WITH LONG PERIOD SWELLS STILL PRESENT TODAY, A TIGHTENING GRADIENT
AND INCREASING WAVE HEIGHTS, IN HOUSE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
A MODERATE RISK TODAY FOR NJ AND DE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...KRUZDLO




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 191927
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
327 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS WEST AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST MSAS INDCTG WEAK SFC TROF FROM SRN DELAWARE SW ACROSS THE
VA & NC PIEDMONTS. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW SCT SHWRS ALONG THIS
BNDRY MAINLY ALONG RT 460 WEST OF PTB.

MODELS AGREE IN SHIFTING THIS TROF WEST ACROSS THE MTS TODAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. TSCTNS SHOWING
ENUF MSTR AT DIFFERENT LEVELS FOR SCT-BKN CLOUDS ALONG WITH A NE
WIND FLOW. ANY TRIGGER FOR SCT SHWRS DRIFTS WEST THRU OUT THE DAY.
GIVEN THESE TRENDS...HELD ONTO CHC POPS THIS MORN ACROSS THE WRN
HALF OF FA ALTHOUGH CHCS DECREASE TO SLGHT CHC BY LATE AFTRN. OTW...
VRBL CLDNS WITH HIGHS IN THE M-U70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
VRBL CLDNS AGAIN TONIGHT BUT DRY AS SPRT FOR ANY SHWRS SHIFTS WEST.
SOME PTCHY FOG PSBL BUT WON`T INCLUDE IN GRIDS ATTM. LOWS IN THE
M50S-L60S.

NE FLOW CONTINUES ON SAT AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES FARTHER OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. TSCTNS SHOWING SOME DRYING AT MID LEVELS FOR MOST OF
THE DAY SO WILL KEEP A DRY FCST UNDER PT TO MSTLY SUNNY SKIES. H85
TMPS RISE TO BTWN 12-14C ALLOWING HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE U70S-M80S.

SFC LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO DVLP OFF THE SERN COAST SAT THEN TRACK
NE ALONG THE GULF STREAM SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING BEFORE LIFTING NE
AND AWAY FROM THE AREA SUN AFTRN. STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WRT
HOW FAR WEST MSTR FROM THIS SYSTM GETS. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT MORE CLOUDS OVR ERN HALF OF FA WITH SLGHT CHC POPS ALONG
THE COAST SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING. LOWS SAT NIGHT U50S-M60S.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM THE RGN SUN WHILE THE NXT COLD
FRNT APPRCHS FROM THE WEST. DATA SUPPORTS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS
SYSTM RESULTING IN SKIES BCMG PT TO MSTLY SUNNY BY THE AFTRN. H85
TMPS APPRCH SUMMER LEVELS (14-16C) ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH THE
M-U80S. A 90 DEGREE READING IS PSBL OVR THE PIEDMONT GIVEN HOW DRY
THE GROUND IS ATTM.

ADJUSTED SUN NIGHTS FCST A BIT GIVEN THE LATEST TRENDS OF MSTR ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DVLP ACROSS THE MTS LATE
SUN AFTRN THEN DRIFT SE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA WHILE WEAKENING
SUN EVENING. ADDED SLGHT CHC THUNDER GIVEN HOW WARM / MARGINAL INSTAB
PROGGED OUT AHEAD OF BNDRY. KEPT SERN HALF OF FA DRY FOR NOW. LOWS
IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE THE NE.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE ERN CONUS
WITH THE EVOLVING AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN. AMPLIFIED PATTERN
WILL FEATURE A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED SECONDARY/REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED
ALONG THE FRONT (PWATS ~1.5 INCHES)...BUT HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING
WINDS ALOFT (JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH) WILL
PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE REGION. SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED POPS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE NRN
LOCAL AREA. THE BIGGER HEADLINE WITH THE FRONT WILL BE THE DRY AIR
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION POST FRONTAL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE W-NW. MON WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE COOLEST/DRIEST
AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT. REINFORCING SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE GREAT
LAKES-NE STATES TUES AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES OFF THE ERN
SEABOARD. MEANWHILE...MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROGRESS EWD OVER THE
CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO THE ERN CONUS TUES- WEDS. COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE PROGGED TO BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDS. UPPER/SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THURS. THE RESULT WILL BE
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

HIGHS WILL BE BELOW AVG THRU THE PERIOD...WITH TUES AND WEDS BEING
THE COLDEST DAYS AT NEARLY -1 STD DEV (LOW-MID 70S). WENT A LITTLE
ABOVE WPC GUIDANCE AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S
INLAND TO LOW 60S NEAR THE COAST. FEW LOCALES IN THE PIEDMONT MAY
DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH NE-E WINDS OVER THE
CWA. VFR CONDS GENERALLY PREVAIL OVER THE REGION BUT WITH MID AND
LOW CLOUDS DUE TO PLENTY OF MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC. WINDS ARE
MOSTLY 10 KT OR LESS BUT SOME GUSTY CONDS PERSIST CLOSE TO THE
COAST. A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE REGION DUE TO A WEAK SFC
TROF OR UPSLOPE IN THE PIEDMONT. NO SIG WX EXPECTED THRU THE
PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THIN OUT THIS AFTN/EVENING FROM RIC
EAST...WHILE MORE CLOUDINESS AND PSBL MVFR CONDS EXPECTED WEST OF
RIC.


OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
SUN. AN AREA OF LOW PRES MOVG UP THE EAST COAST MAY BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHC OF RAIN FOR NE NC AND SE VA LATE SUN
INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NELY TO ELY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON IS RESULTING FROM HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NEW ENGLAND. GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON
ALLOWING FOR GUSTS OF 12-19KT ESPECIALLY AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO BUILD TODAY WITH
3 TO 4 FT SEAS OFF DUCK NC AND OFF OCEAN CITY. SEAS OFF SOUTHEAST
VA REMAIN AROUND 3 FT. SEAS SOUTH OF DUCK HAVE BEEN BUILDING TO 5
TO 6 FT AND SEAS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BUILD TO MARGINAL SCA LATER
TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SCA HEADLINES GO INTO EFFECT FOR ALL THE
COASTAL WATERS AT 1 AM.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SAT AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY OFF THE NC COAST. THE
LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
PASSING WELL OFF THE VA COAST LATE SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
NELY TO NLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND BAY FOR MOST OF THE
WEEKEND. SCA CONDITIONS FOR WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM
BASED ON THE GRADIENT WIND FORECAST. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ELEVATED (4-5 FT) THRU SAT...BEFORE SUBSIDING ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH WINDS TURNING OFFSHORE. SCA HAVE BEEN
EXTENDED INTO SAT NIGHT AND MAY NEED TO EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY FOR
SEAS.

SFC LOW LIFTS NE OFF THE COAST LATE SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY
BUILD TO 5 FT AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. NW WINDS 10-15 KT ON
MONDAY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME N-NE ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LOCK IN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND EXTEND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF NELY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LATEST DROUGHT INFO SHOWING AN AREA OF ABNORMALLY DRY CNDTNS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF VA. THIS INCLUDES AREAS N OF I 64 & RT 360 (INCLUDING
THE RIC METRO AREA) IN AKQ FA. OTHER THAN SCT CONVECTION WITH THE
FRNT SUN EVE...XTNDD MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF RELIEF
FOR THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...JAO
HYDROLOGY...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 191927
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
327 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS WEST AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST MSAS INDCTG WEAK SFC TROF FROM SRN DELAWARE SW ACROSS THE
VA & NC PIEDMONTS. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW SCT SHWRS ALONG THIS
BNDRY MAINLY ALONG RT 460 WEST OF PTB.

MODELS AGREE IN SHIFTING THIS TROF WEST ACROSS THE MTS TODAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. TSCTNS SHOWING
ENUF MSTR AT DIFFERENT LEVELS FOR SCT-BKN CLOUDS ALONG WITH A NE
WIND FLOW. ANY TRIGGER FOR SCT SHWRS DRIFTS WEST THRU OUT THE DAY.
GIVEN THESE TRENDS...HELD ONTO CHC POPS THIS MORN ACROSS THE WRN
HALF OF FA ALTHOUGH CHCS DECREASE TO SLGHT CHC BY LATE AFTRN. OTW...
VRBL CLDNS WITH HIGHS IN THE M-U70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
VRBL CLDNS AGAIN TONIGHT BUT DRY AS SPRT FOR ANY SHWRS SHIFTS WEST.
SOME PTCHY FOG PSBL BUT WON`T INCLUDE IN GRIDS ATTM. LOWS IN THE
M50S-L60S.

NE FLOW CONTINUES ON SAT AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES FARTHER OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. TSCTNS SHOWING SOME DRYING AT MID LEVELS FOR MOST OF
THE DAY SO WILL KEEP A DRY FCST UNDER PT TO MSTLY SUNNY SKIES. H85
TMPS RISE TO BTWN 12-14C ALLOWING HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE U70S-M80S.

SFC LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO DVLP OFF THE SERN COAST SAT THEN TRACK
NE ALONG THE GULF STREAM SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING BEFORE LIFTING NE
AND AWAY FROM THE AREA SUN AFTRN. STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WRT
HOW FAR WEST MSTR FROM THIS SYSTM GETS. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT MORE CLOUDS OVR ERN HALF OF FA WITH SLGHT CHC POPS ALONG
THE COAST SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING. LOWS SAT NIGHT U50S-M60S.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM THE RGN SUN WHILE THE NXT COLD
FRNT APPRCHS FROM THE WEST. DATA SUPPORTS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS
SYSTM RESULTING IN SKIES BCMG PT TO MSTLY SUNNY BY THE AFTRN. H85
TMPS APPRCH SUMMER LEVELS (14-16C) ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH THE
M-U80S. A 90 DEGREE READING IS PSBL OVR THE PIEDMONT GIVEN HOW DRY
THE GROUND IS ATTM.

ADJUSTED SUN NIGHTS FCST A BIT GIVEN THE LATEST TRENDS OF MSTR ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DVLP ACROSS THE MTS LATE
SUN AFTRN THEN DRIFT SE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA WHILE WEAKENING
SUN EVENING. ADDED SLGHT CHC THUNDER GIVEN HOW WARM / MARGINAL INSTAB
PROGGED OUT AHEAD OF BNDRY. KEPT SERN HALF OF FA DRY FOR NOW. LOWS
IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE THE NE.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE ERN CONUS
WITH THE EVOLVING AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN. AMPLIFIED PATTERN
WILL FEATURE A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED SECONDARY/REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED
ALONG THE FRONT (PWATS ~1.5 INCHES)...BUT HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING
WINDS ALOFT (JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH) WILL
PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE REGION. SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED POPS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE NRN
LOCAL AREA. THE BIGGER HEADLINE WITH THE FRONT WILL BE THE DRY AIR
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION POST FRONTAL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE W-NW. MON WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE COOLEST/DRIEST
AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT. REINFORCING SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE GREAT
LAKES-NE STATES TUES AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES OFF THE ERN
SEABOARD. MEANWHILE...MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROGRESS EWD OVER THE
CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO THE ERN CONUS TUES- WEDS. COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE PROGGED TO BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDS. UPPER/SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THURS. THE RESULT WILL BE
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

HIGHS WILL BE BELOW AVG THRU THE PERIOD...WITH TUES AND WEDS BEING
THE COLDEST DAYS AT NEARLY -1 STD DEV (LOW-MID 70S). WENT A LITTLE
ABOVE WPC GUIDANCE AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S
INLAND TO LOW 60S NEAR THE COAST. FEW LOCALES IN THE PIEDMONT MAY
DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH NE-E WINDS OVER THE
CWA. VFR CONDS GENERALLY PREVAIL OVER THE REGION BUT WITH MID AND
LOW CLOUDS DUE TO PLENTY OF MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC. WINDS ARE
MOSTLY 10 KT OR LESS BUT SOME GUSTY CONDS PERSIST CLOSE TO THE
COAST. A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE REGION DUE TO A WEAK SFC
TROF OR UPSLOPE IN THE PIEDMONT. NO SIG WX EXPECTED THRU THE
PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THIN OUT THIS AFTN/EVENING FROM RIC
EAST...WHILE MORE CLOUDINESS AND PSBL MVFR CONDS EXPECTED WEST OF
RIC.


OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
SUN. AN AREA OF LOW PRES MOVG UP THE EAST COAST MAY BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHC OF RAIN FOR NE NC AND SE VA LATE SUN
INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NELY TO ELY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON IS RESULTING FROM HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NEW ENGLAND. GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON
ALLOWING FOR GUSTS OF 12-19KT ESPECIALLY AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO BUILD TODAY WITH
3 TO 4 FT SEAS OFF DUCK NC AND OFF OCEAN CITY. SEAS OFF SOUTHEAST
VA REMAIN AROUND 3 FT. SEAS SOUTH OF DUCK HAVE BEEN BUILDING TO 5
TO 6 FT AND SEAS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BUILD TO MARGINAL SCA LATER
TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SCA HEADLINES GO INTO EFFECT FOR ALL THE
COASTAL WATERS AT 1 AM.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SAT AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY OFF THE NC COAST. THE
LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
PASSING WELL OFF THE VA COAST LATE SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
NELY TO NLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND BAY FOR MOST OF THE
WEEKEND. SCA CONDITIONS FOR WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM
BASED ON THE GRADIENT WIND FORECAST. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ELEVATED (4-5 FT) THRU SAT...BEFORE SUBSIDING ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH WINDS TURNING OFFSHORE. SCA HAVE BEEN
EXTENDED INTO SAT NIGHT AND MAY NEED TO EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY FOR
SEAS.

SFC LOW LIFTS NE OFF THE COAST LATE SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY
BUILD TO 5 FT AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. NW WINDS 10-15 KT ON
MONDAY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME N-NE ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LOCK IN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND EXTEND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF NELY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LATEST DROUGHT INFO SHOWING AN AREA OF ABNORMALLY DRY CNDTNS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF VA. THIS INCLUDES AREAS N OF I 64 & RT 360 (INCLUDING
THE RIC METRO AREA) IN AKQ FA. OTHER THAN SCT CONVECTION WITH THE
FRNT SUN EVE...XTNDD MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF RELIEF
FOR THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...JAO
HYDROLOGY...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 191927
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
327 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS WEST AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST MSAS INDCTG WEAK SFC TROF FROM SRN DELAWARE SW ACROSS THE
VA & NC PIEDMONTS. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW SCT SHWRS ALONG THIS
BNDRY MAINLY ALONG RT 460 WEST OF PTB.

MODELS AGREE IN SHIFTING THIS TROF WEST ACROSS THE MTS TODAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. TSCTNS SHOWING
ENUF MSTR AT DIFFERENT LEVELS FOR SCT-BKN CLOUDS ALONG WITH A NE
WIND FLOW. ANY TRIGGER FOR SCT SHWRS DRIFTS WEST THRU OUT THE DAY.
GIVEN THESE TRENDS...HELD ONTO CHC POPS THIS MORN ACROSS THE WRN
HALF OF FA ALTHOUGH CHCS DECREASE TO SLGHT CHC BY LATE AFTRN. OTW...
VRBL CLDNS WITH HIGHS IN THE M-U70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
VRBL CLDNS AGAIN TONIGHT BUT DRY AS SPRT FOR ANY SHWRS SHIFTS WEST.
SOME PTCHY FOG PSBL BUT WON`T INCLUDE IN GRIDS ATTM. LOWS IN THE
M50S-L60S.

NE FLOW CONTINUES ON SAT AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES FARTHER OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. TSCTNS SHOWING SOME DRYING AT MID LEVELS FOR MOST OF
THE DAY SO WILL KEEP A DRY FCST UNDER PT TO MSTLY SUNNY SKIES. H85
TMPS RISE TO BTWN 12-14C ALLOWING HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE U70S-M80S.

SFC LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO DVLP OFF THE SERN COAST SAT THEN TRACK
NE ALONG THE GULF STREAM SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING BEFORE LIFTING NE
AND AWAY FROM THE AREA SUN AFTRN. STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WRT
HOW FAR WEST MSTR FROM THIS SYSTM GETS. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT MORE CLOUDS OVR ERN HALF OF FA WITH SLGHT CHC POPS ALONG
THE COAST SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING. LOWS SAT NIGHT U50S-M60S.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM THE RGN SUN WHILE THE NXT COLD
FRNT APPRCHS FROM THE WEST. DATA SUPPORTS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS
SYSTM RESULTING IN SKIES BCMG PT TO MSTLY SUNNY BY THE AFTRN. H85
TMPS APPRCH SUMMER LEVELS (14-16C) ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH THE
M-U80S. A 90 DEGREE READING IS PSBL OVR THE PIEDMONT GIVEN HOW DRY
THE GROUND IS ATTM.

ADJUSTED SUN NIGHTS FCST A BIT GIVEN THE LATEST TRENDS OF MSTR ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DVLP ACROSS THE MTS LATE
SUN AFTRN THEN DRIFT SE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA WHILE WEAKENING
SUN EVENING. ADDED SLGHT CHC THUNDER GIVEN HOW WARM / MARGINAL INSTAB
PROGGED OUT AHEAD OF BNDRY. KEPT SERN HALF OF FA DRY FOR NOW. LOWS
IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE THE NE.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE ERN CONUS
WITH THE EVOLVING AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN. AMPLIFIED PATTERN
WILL FEATURE A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED SECONDARY/REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED
ALONG THE FRONT (PWATS ~1.5 INCHES)...BUT HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING
WINDS ALOFT (JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH) WILL
PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE REGION. SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED POPS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE NRN
LOCAL AREA. THE BIGGER HEADLINE WITH THE FRONT WILL BE THE DRY AIR
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION POST FRONTAL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE W-NW. MON WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE COOLEST/DRIEST
AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT. REINFORCING SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE GREAT
LAKES-NE STATES TUES AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES OFF THE ERN
SEABOARD. MEANWHILE...MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROGRESS EWD OVER THE
CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO THE ERN CONUS TUES- WEDS. COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE PROGGED TO BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDS. UPPER/SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THURS. THE RESULT WILL BE
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

HIGHS WILL BE BELOW AVG THRU THE PERIOD...WITH TUES AND WEDS BEING
THE COLDEST DAYS AT NEARLY -1 STD DEV (LOW-MID 70S). WENT A LITTLE
ABOVE WPC GUIDANCE AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S
INLAND TO LOW 60S NEAR THE COAST. FEW LOCALES IN THE PIEDMONT MAY
DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH NE-E WINDS OVER THE
CWA. VFR CONDS GENERALLY PREVAIL OVER THE REGION BUT WITH MID AND
LOW CLOUDS DUE TO PLENTY OF MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC. WINDS ARE
MOSTLY 10 KT OR LESS BUT SOME GUSTY CONDS PERSIST CLOSE TO THE
COAST. A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE REGION DUE TO A WEAK SFC
TROF OR UPSLOPE IN THE PIEDMONT. NO SIG WX EXPECTED THRU THE
PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THIN OUT THIS AFTN/EVENING FROM RIC
EAST...WHILE MORE CLOUDINESS AND PSBL MVFR CONDS EXPECTED WEST OF
RIC.


OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
SUN. AN AREA OF LOW PRES MOVG UP THE EAST COAST MAY BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHC OF RAIN FOR NE NC AND SE VA LATE SUN
INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NELY TO ELY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON IS RESULTING FROM HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NEW ENGLAND. GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON
ALLOWING FOR GUSTS OF 12-19KT ESPECIALLY AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO BUILD TODAY WITH
3 TO 4 FT SEAS OFF DUCK NC AND OFF OCEAN CITY. SEAS OFF SOUTHEAST
VA REMAIN AROUND 3 FT. SEAS SOUTH OF DUCK HAVE BEEN BUILDING TO 5
TO 6 FT AND SEAS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BUILD TO MARGINAL SCA LATER
TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SCA HEADLINES GO INTO EFFECT FOR ALL THE
COASTAL WATERS AT 1 AM.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SAT AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY OFF THE NC COAST. THE
LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
PASSING WELL OFF THE VA COAST LATE SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
NELY TO NLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND BAY FOR MOST OF THE
WEEKEND. SCA CONDITIONS FOR WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM
BASED ON THE GRADIENT WIND FORECAST. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ELEVATED (4-5 FT) THRU SAT...BEFORE SUBSIDING ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH WINDS TURNING OFFSHORE. SCA HAVE BEEN
EXTENDED INTO SAT NIGHT AND MAY NEED TO EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY FOR
SEAS.

SFC LOW LIFTS NE OFF THE COAST LATE SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY
BUILD TO 5 FT AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. NW WINDS 10-15 KT ON
MONDAY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME N-NE ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LOCK IN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND EXTEND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF NELY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LATEST DROUGHT INFO SHOWING AN AREA OF ABNORMALLY DRY CNDTNS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF VA. THIS INCLUDES AREAS N OF I 64 & RT 360 (INCLUDING
THE RIC METRO AREA) IN AKQ FA. OTHER THAN SCT CONVECTION WITH THE
FRNT SUN EVE...XTNDD MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF RELIEF
FOR THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...JAO
HYDROLOGY...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 191927
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
327 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS WEST AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST MSAS INDCTG WEAK SFC TROF FROM SRN DELAWARE SW ACROSS THE
VA & NC PIEDMONTS. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW SCT SHWRS ALONG THIS
BNDRY MAINLY ALONG RT 460 WEST OF PTB.

MODELS AGREE IN SHIFTING THIS TROF WEST ACROSS THE MTS TODAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. TSCTNS SHOWING
ENUF MSTR AT DIFFERENT LEVELS FOR SCT-BKN CLOUDS ALONG WITH A NE
WIND FLOW. ANY TRIGGER FOR SCT SHWRS DRIFTS WEST THRU OUT THE DAY.
GIVEN THESE TRENDS...HELD ONTO CHC POPS THIS MORN ACROSS THE WRN
HALF OF FA ALTHOUGH CHCS DECREASE TO SLGHT CHC BY LATE AFTRN. OTW...
VRBL CLDNS WITH HIGHS IN THE M-U70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
VRBL CLDNS AGAIN TONIGHT BUT DRY AS SPRT FOR ANY SHWRS SHIFTS WEST.
SOME PTCHY FOG PSBL BUT WON`T INCLUDE IN GRIDS ATTM. LOWS IN THE
M50S-L60S.

NE FLOW CONTINUES ON SAT AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES FARTHER OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. TSCTNS SHOWING SOME DRYING AT MID LEVELS FOR MOST OF
THE DAY SO WILL KEEP A DRY FCST UNDER PT TO MSTLY SUNNY SKIES. H85
TMPS RISE TO BTWN 12-14C ALLOWING HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE U70S-M80S.

SFC LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO DVLP OFF THE SERN COAST SAT THEN TRACK
NE ALONG THE GULF STREAM SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING BEFORE LIFTING NE
AND AWAY FROM THE AREA SUN AFTRN. STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WRT
HOW FAR WEST MSTR FROM THIS SYSTM GETS. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT MORE CLOUDS OVR ERN HALF OF FA WITH SLGHT CHC POPS ALONG
THE COAST SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING. LOWS SAT NIGHT U50S-M60S.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM THE RGN SUN WHILE THE NXT COLD
FRNT APPRCHS FROM THE WEST. DATA SUPPORTS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS
SYSTM RESULTING IN SKIES BCMG PT TO MSTLY SUNNY BY THE AFTRN. H85
TMPS APPRCH SUMMER LEVELS (14-16C) ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH THE
M-U80S. A 90 DEGREE READING IS PSBL OVR THE PIEDMONT GIVEN HOW DRY
THE GROUND IS ATTM.

ADJUSTED SUN NIGHTS FCST A BIT GIVEN THE LATEST TRENDS OF MSTR ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DVLP ACROSS THE MTS LATE
SUN AFTRN THEN DRIFT SE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA WHILE WEAKENING
SUN EVENING. ADDED SLGHT CHC THUNDER GIVEN HOW WARM / MARGINAL INSTAB
PROGGED OUT AHEAD OF BNDRY. KEPT SERN HALF OF FA DRY FOR NOW. LOWS
IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE THE NE.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE ERN CONUS
WITH THE EVOLVING AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN. AMPLIFIED PATTERN
WILL FEATURE A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED SECONDARY/REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED
ALONG THE FRONT (PWATS ~1.5 INCHES)...BUT HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING
WINDS ALOFT (JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH) WILL
PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE REGION. SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED POPS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE NRN
LOCAL AREA. THE BIGGER HEADLINE WITH THE FRONT WILL BE THE DRY AIR
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION POST FRONTAL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE W-NW. MON WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE COOLEST/DRIEST
AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT. REINFORCING SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE GREAT
LAKES-NE STATES TUES AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES OFF THE ERN
SEABOARD. MEANWHILE...MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROGRESS EWD OVER THE
CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO THE ERN CONUS TUES- WEDS. COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE PROGGED TO BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDS. UPPER/SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THURS. THE RESULT WILL BE
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

HIGHS WILL BE BELOW AVG THRU THE PERIOD...WITH TUES AND WEDS BEING
THE COLDEST DAYS AT NEARLY -1 STD DEV (LOW-MID 70S). WENT A LITTLE
ABOVE WPC GUIDANCE AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S
INLAND TO LOW 60S NEAR THE COAST. FEW LOCALES IN THE PIEDMONT MAY
DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH NE-E WINDS OVER THE
CWA. VFR CONDS GENERALLY PREVAIL OVER THE REGION BUT WITH MID AND
LOW CLOUDS DUE TO PLENTY OF MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC. WINDS ARE
MOSTLY 10 KT OR LESS BUT SOME GUSTY CONDS PERSIST CLOSE TO THE
COAST. A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE REGION DUE TO A WEAK SFC
TROF OR UPSLOPE IN THE PIEDMONT. NO SIG WX EXPECTED THRU THE
PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THIN OUT THIS AFTN/EVENING FROM RIC
EAST...WHILE MORE CLOUDINESS AND PSBL MVFR CONDS EXPECTED WEST OF
RIC.


OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
SUN. AN AREA OF LOW PRES MOVG UP THE EAST COAST MAY BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHC OF RAIN FOR NE NC AND SE VA LATE SUN
INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NELY TO ELY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON IS RESULTING FROM HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NEW ENGLAND. GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON
ALLOWING FOR GUSTS OF 12-19KT ESPECIALLY AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO BUILD TODAY WITH
3 TO 4 FT SEAS OFF DUCK NC AND OFF OCEAN CITY. SEAS OFF SOUTHEAST
VA REMAIN AROUND 3 FT. SEAS SOUTH OF DUCK HAVE BEEN BUILDING TO 5
TO 6 FT AND SEAS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BUILD TO MARGINAL SCA LATER
TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SCA HEADLINES GO INTO EFFECT FOR ALL THE
COASTAL WATERS AT 1 AM.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SAT AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY OFF THE NC COAST. THE
LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
PASSING WELL OFF THE VA COAST LATE SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
NELY TO NLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND BAY FOR MOST OF THE
WEEKEND. SCA CONDITIONS FOR WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM
BASED ON THE GRADIENT WIND FORECAST. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ELEVATED (4-5 FT) THRU SAT...BEFORE SUBSIDING ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH WINDS TURNING OFFSHORE. SCA HAVE BEEN
EXTENDED INTO SAT NIGHT AND MAY NEED TO EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY FOR
SEAS.

SFC LOW LIFTS NE OFF THE COAST LATE SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY
BUILD TO 5 FT AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. NW WINDS 10-15 KT ON
MONDAY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME N-NE ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LOCK IN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND EXTEND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF NELY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LATEST DROUGHT INFO SHOWING AN AREA OF ABNORMALLY DRY CNDTNS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF VA. THIS INCLUDES AREAS N OF I 64 & RT 360 (INCLUDING
THE RIC METRO AREA) IN AKQ FA. OTHER THAN SCT CONVECTION WITH THE
FRNT SUN EVE...XTNDD MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF RELIEF
FOR THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...JAO
HYDROLOGY...






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191914
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
314 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS WARM TEMPERATURES UP TO AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE SUNDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD SFC HIGH FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL ENSURE DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. AS THE HIGH HAS SLOWLY
PIVOTED EAST OVER THE LAST DAY OR TWO...OUR AREA HAS FOUND ITSELF
ON THE SW QUADRANT...BRINGING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA. THIS
SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS BEEN ADVECTING MID-ATLANTIC MOISTURE ALONG THE
ERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS AND IS CURRENTLY MANIFESTING ITSELF
IN INCREASED CLOUD COVER EVIDENT ON THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE ALTOCU DEVELOPMENT SPREAD WEST WITH
SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOISTURE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE SOME TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE LOWER
TERRAIN...BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AS SFC GRADIENT BEGINS TO
TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE SUNDAY COLD FRONT. AM TRENDING LOWER WITH
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...BUT INCREASED BL FLOW ALONE SHOULD
PRECLUDE EXTENSIVE FOG DEVELOPMENT. WARM SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY TO REACH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH FLIRTING WITH THE 80 DEGREE MARK.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MSTR WILL INCR SAT NGT ON SWLY WIND AHEAD OF A CDFNT THAT IS XPCD
TO CROSS THE RGN ON SUN. THIS INCRG MSTR WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
FALLING TOO AGGRESSIVELY SAT NGT...WITH MINIMA IN THE UPR 50S-LWR
60S. SHWRS FORMING ALONG THE ADVCG FRONT MAY MOVE INTO FAR NWRN
ZONES BY LATE SAT NGT.

H5 SHRTWV TROF WILL BGN TO ACQUIRE NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE TILT ON SUN
AS IT CROSSES THE SRN GRTLKS. THE CONCURRENCE OF INCRG SHEAR AS H5
JET STRENGTHENS...CONTD MSTR ADVCTN AHEAD OF CDFNT AND INCRG LIFT
SHOULD PROMOTE DVLPMT OF CNVCTV LINE ALONG SURGING CDFNT. THE
INTENSITY OF THE LINE WILL DEPEND UPON AMT OF SUNSHINE THAT OCCURS
AHD OF THE BNDRY. PROVIDED DP CNVCTN DVLPS...THERE WILL BE A POTL
FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS WITH ORGANIZED CNVCTV LINE SEGMENTS. THIS POTL
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO ATTM.

POPS WERE INCRD CONSIDERABLY ON SUN IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE TRENDS.
BEST CHC FOR PCPN APPEARS TO BE SUN AFTN AS CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.
ANY SHWRS WILL SHIFT EWD BY EARLY EVE...WITH PERHAPS SOME LAKE-
EFFECT SHWRS FORMING ACRS NRN ZONES SUN NGT.

SFC HIPRES MOVES INTO THE RGN BY MON...BRINGING AN END TO PCPN AND
PROMOTING COOLER TEMPERATURES THRU MON NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL DRY AND COOL PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SCATTERED ALTOCU AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS. EXPECTING MORE OF THE SAME FOR SATURDAY...SAVE FOR
INCREASED SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW THAT COULD AT TIMES GUST 15-20KTS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
GENERAL RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH A SUNDAY
COLDFRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

TAX/KRAMAR





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191914
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
314 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS WARM TEMPERATURES UP TO AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE SUNDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD SFC HIGH FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL ENSURE DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. AS THE HIGH HAS SLOWLY
PIVOTED EAST OVER THE LAST DAY OR TWO...OUR AREA HAS FOUND ITSELF
ON THE SW QUADRANT...BRINGING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA. THIS
SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS BEEN ADVECTING MID-ATLANTIC MOISTURE ALONG THE
ERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS AND IS CURRENTLY MANIFESTING ITSELF
IN INCREASED CLOUD COVER EVIDENT ON THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE ALTOCU DEVELOPMENT SPREAD WEST WITH
SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOISTURE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE SOME TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE LOWER
TERRAIN...BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AS SFC GRADIENT BEGINS TO
TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE SUNDAY COLD FRONT. AM TRENDING LOWER WITH
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...BUT INCREASED BL FLOW ALONE SHOULD
PRECLUDE EXTENSIVE FOG DEVELOPMENT. WARM SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY TO REACH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH FLIRTING WITH THE 80 DEGREE MARK.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MSTR WILL INCR SAT NGT ON SWLY WIND AHEAD OF A CDFNT THAT IS XPCD
TO CROSS THE RGN ON SUN. THIS INCRG MSTR WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
FALLING TOO AGGRESSIVELY SAT NGT...WITH MINIMA IN THE UPR 50S-LWR
60S. SHWRS FORMING ALONG THE ADVCG FRONT MAY MOVE INTO FAR NWRN
ZONES BY LATE SAT NGT.

H5 SHRTWV TROF WILL BGN TO ACQUIRE NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE TILT ON SUN
AS IT CROSSES THE SRN GRTLKS. THE CONCURRENCE OF INCRG SHEAR AS H5
JET STRENGTHENS...CONTD MSTR ADVCTN AHEAD OF CDFNT AND INCRG LIFT
SHOULD PROMOTE DVLPMT OF CNVCTV LINE ALONG SURGING CDFNT. THE
INTENSITY OF THE LINE WILL DEPEND UPON AMT OF SUNSHINE THAT OCCURS
AHD OF THE BNDRY. PROVIDED DP CNVCTN DVLPS...THERE WILL BE A POTL
FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS WITH ORGANIZED CNVCTV LINE SEGMENTS. THIS POTL
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO ATTM.

POPS WERE INCRD CONSIDERABLY ON SUN IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE TRENDS.
BEST CHC FOR PCPN APPEARS TO BE SUN AFTN AS CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.
ANY SHWRS WILL SHIFT EWD BY EARLY EVE...WITH PERHAPS SOME LAKE-
EFFECT SHWRS FORMING ACRS NRN ZONES SUN NGT.

SFC HIPRES MOVES INTO THE RGN BY MON...BRINGING AN END TO PCPN AND
PROMOTING COOLER TEMPERATURES THRU MON NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL DRY AND COOL PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SCATTERED ALTOCU AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS. EXPECTING MORE OF THE SAME FOR SATURDAY...SAVE FOR
INCREASED SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW THAT COULD AT TIMES GUST 15-20KTS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
GENERAL RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH A SUNDAY
COLDFRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

TAX/KRAMAR





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191914
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
314 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS WARM TEMPERATURES UP TO AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE SUNDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD SFC HIGH FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL ENSURE DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. AS THE HIGH HAS SLOWLY
PIVOTED EAST OVER THE LAST DAY OR TWO...OUR AREA HAS FOUND ITSELF
ON THE SW QUADRANT...BRINGING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA. THIS
SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS BEEN ADVECTING MID-ATLANTIC MOISTURE ALONG THE
ERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS AND IS CURRENTLY MANIFESTING ITSELF
IN INCREASED CLOUD COVER EVIDENT ON THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE ALTOCU DEVELOPMENT SPREAD WEST WITH
SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOISTURE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE SOME TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE LOWER
TERRAIN...BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AS SFC GRADIENT BEGINS TO
TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE SUNDAY COLD FRONT. AM TRENDING LOWER WITH
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...BUT INCREASED BL FLOW ALONE SHOULD
PRECLUDE EXTENSIVE FOG DEVELOPMENT. WARM SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY TO REACH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH FLIRTING WITH THE 80 DEGREE MARK.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MSTR WILL INCR SAT NGT ON SWLY WIND AHEAD OF A CDFNT THAT IS XPCD
TO CROSS THE RGN ON SUN. THIS INCRG MSTR WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
FALLING TOO AGGRESSIVELY SAT NGT...WITH MINIMA IN THE UPR 50S-LWR
60S. SHWRS FORMING ALONG THE ADVCG FRONT MAY MOVE INTO FAR NWRN
ZONES BY LATE SAT NGT.

H5 SHRTWV TROF WILL BGN TO ACQUIRE NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE TILT ON SUN
AS IT CROSSES THE SRN GRTLKS. THE CONCURRENCE OF INCRG SHEAR AS H5
JET STRENGTHENS...CONTD MSTR ADVCTN AHEAD OF CDFNT AND INCRG LIFT
SHOULD PROMOTE DVLPMT OF CNVCTV LINE ALONG SURGING CDFNT. THE
INTENSITY OF THE LINE WILL DEPEND UPON AMT OF SUNSHINE THAT OCCURS
AHD OF THE BNDRY. PROVIDED DP CNVCTN DVLPS...THERE WILL BE A POTL
FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS WITH ORGANIZED CNVCTV LINE SEGMENTS. THIS POTL
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO ATTM.

POPS WERE INCRD CONSIDERABLY ON SUN IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE TRENDS.
BEST CHC FOR PCPN APPEARS TO BE SUN AFTN AS CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.
ANY SHWRS WILL SHIFT EWD BY EARLY EVE...WITH PERHAPS SOME LAKE-
EFFECT SHWRS FORMING ACRS NRN ZONES SUN NGT.

SFC HIPRES MOVES INTO THE RGN BY MON...BRINGING AN END TO PCPN AND
PROMOTING COOLER TEMPERATURES THRU MON NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL DRY AND COOL PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SCATTERED ALTOCU AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS. EXPECTING MORE OF THE SAME FOR SATURDAY...SAVE FOR
INCREASED SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW THAT COULD AT TIMES GUST 15-20KTS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
GENERAL RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH A SUNDAY
COLDFRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

TAX/KRAMAR





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191914
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
314 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS WARM TEMPERATURES UP TO AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE SUNDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD SFC HIGH FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL ENSURE DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. AS THE HIGH HAS SLOWLY
PIVOTED EAST OVER THE LAST DAY OR TWO...OUR AREA HAS FOUND ITSELF
ON THE SW QUADRANT...BRINGING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA. THIS
SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS BEEN ADVECTING MID-ATLANTIC MOISTURE ALONG THE
ERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS AND IS CURRENTLY MANIFESTING ITSELF
IN INCREASED CLOUD COVER EVIDENT ON THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE ALTOCU DEVELOPMENT SPREAD WEST WITH
SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOISTURE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE SOME TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE LOWER
TERRAIN...BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AS SFC GRADIENT BEGINS TO
TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE SUNDAY COLD FRONT. AM TRENDING LOWER WITH
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...BUT INCREASED BL FLOW ALONE SHOULD
PRECLUDE EXTENSIVE FOG DEVELOPMENT. WARM SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY TO REACH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH FLIRTING WITH THE 80 DEGREE MARK.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MSTR WILL INCR SAT NGT ON SWLY WIND AHEAD OF A CDFNT THAT IS XPCD
TO CROSS THE RGN ON SUN. THIS INCRG MSTR WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
FALLING TOO AGGRESSIVELY SAT NGT...WITH MINIMA IN THE UPR 50S-LWR
60S. SHWRS FORMING ALONG THE ADVCG FRONT MAY MOVE INTO FAR NWRN
ZONES BY LATE SAT NGT.

H5 SHRTWV TROF WILL BGN TO ACQUIRE NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE TILT ON SUN
AS IT CROSSES THE SRN GRTLKS. THE CONCURRENCE OF INCRG SHEAR AS H5
JET STRENGTHENS...CONTD MSTR ADVCTN AHEAD OF CDFNT AND INCRG LIFT
SHOULD PROMOTE DVLPMT OF CNVCTV LINE ALONG SURGING CDFNT. THE
INTENSITY OF THE LINE WILL DEPEND UPON AMT OF SUNSHINE THAT OCCURS
AHD OF THE BNDRY. PROVIDED DP CNVCTN DVLPS...THERE WILL BE A POTL
FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS WITH ORGANIZED CNVCTV LINE SEGMENTS. THIS POTL
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO ATTM.

POPS WERE INCRD CONSIDERABLY ON SUN IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE TRENDS.
BEST CHC FOR PCPN APPEARS TO BE SUN AFTN AS CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.
ANY SHWRS WILL SHIFT EWD BY EARLY EVE...WITH PERHAPS SOME LAKE-
EFFECT SHWRS FORMING ACRS NRN ZONES SUN NGT.

SFC HIPRES MOVES INTO THE RGN BY MON...BRINGING AN END TO PCPN AND
PROMOTING COOLER TEMPERATURES THRU MON NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL DRY AND COOL PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SCATTERED ALTOCU AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS. EXPECTING MORE OF THE SAME FOR SATURDAY...SAVE FOR
INCREASED SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW THAT COULD AT TIMES GUST 15-20KTS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
GENERAL RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH A SUNDAY
COLDFRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

TAX/KRAMAR





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 191853
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
253 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS WEST AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST MSAS INDCTG WEAK SFC TROF FROM SRN DELAWARE SW ACROSS THE
VA & NC PIEDMONTS. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW SCT SHWRS ALONG THIS
BNDRY MAINLY ALONG RT 460 WEST OF PTB.

MODELS AGREE IN SHIFTING THIS TROF WEST ACROSS THE MTS TODAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. TSCTNS SHOWING
ENUF MSTR AT DIFFERENT LEVELS FOR SCT-BKN CLOUDS ALONG WITH A NE
WIND FLOW. ANY TRIGGER FOR SCT SHWRS DRIFTS WEST THRU OUT THE DAY.
GIVEN THESE TRENDS...HELD ONTO CHC POPS THIS MORN ACROSS THE WRN
HALF OF FA ALTHOUGH CHCS DECREASE TO SLGHT CHC BY LATE AFTRN. OTW...
VRBL CLDNS WITH HIGHS IN THE M-U70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
VRBL CLDNS AGAIN TONIGHT BUT DRY AS SPRT FOR ANY SHWRS SHIFTS WEST.
SOME PTCHY FOG PSBL BUT WON`T INCLUDE IN GRIDS ATTM. LOWS IN THE
M50S-L60S.

NE FLOW CONTINUES ON SAT AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES FARTHER OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. TSCTNS SHOWING SOME DRYING AT MID LEVELS FOR MOST OF
THE DAY SO WILL KEEP A DRY FCST UNDER PT TO MSTLY SUNNY SKIES. H85
TMPS RISE TO BTWN 12-14C ALLOWING HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE U70S-M80S.

SFC LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO DVLP OFF THE SERN COAST SAT THEN TRACK
NE ALONG THE GULF STREAM SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING BEFORE LIFTING NE
AND AWAY FROM THE AREA SUN AFTRN. STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WRT
HOW FAR WEST MSTR FROM THIS SYSTM GETS. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT MORE CLOUDS OVR ERN HALF OF FA WITH SLGHT CHC POPS ALONG
THE COAST SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING. LOWS SAT NIGHT U50S-M60S.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM THE RGN SUN WHILE THE NXT COLD
FRNT APPRCHS FROM THE WEST. DATA SUPPORTS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS
SYSTM RESULTING IN SKIES BCMG PT TO MSTLY SUNNY BY THE AFTRN. H85
TMPS APPRCH SUMMER LEVELS (14-16C) ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH THE
M-U80S. A 90 DEGREE READING IS PSBL OVR THE PIEDMONT GIVEN HOW DRY
THE GROUND IS ATTM.

ADJUSTED SUN NIGHTS FCST A BIT GIVEN THE LATEST TRENDS OF MSTR ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DVLP ACROSS THE MTS LATE
SUN AFTRN THEN DRIFT SE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA WHILE WEAKENING
SUN EVENING. ADDED SLGHT CHC THUNDER GIVEN HOW WARM / MARGINAL INSTAB
PROGGED OUT AHEAD OF BNDRY. KEPT SERN HALF OF FA DRY FOR NOW. LOWS
IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE THE NE.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE ERN CONUS
WITH THE EVOLVING AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN. AMPLIFIED PATTERN
WILL FEATURE A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED SECONDARY/REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED
ALONG THE FRONT (PWATS ~1.5 INCHES)...BUT HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING
WINDS ALOFT (JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH) WILL
PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE REGION. SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED POPS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE NRN
LOCAL AREA. THE BIGGER HEADLINE WITH THE FRONT WILL BE THE DRY AIR
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION POST FRONTAL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE W-NW. MON WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE COOLEST/DRIEST
AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT. REINFORCING SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE GREAT
LAKES-NE STATES TUES AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES OFF THE ERN
SEABOARD. MEANWHILE...MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROGRESS EWD OVER THE
CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO THE ERN CONUS TUES- WEDS. COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE PROGGED TO BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDS. UPPER/SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THURS. THE RESULT WILL BE
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

HIGHS WILL BE BELOW AVG THRU THE PERIOD...WITH TUES AND WEDS BEING
THE COLDEST DAYS AT NEARLY -1 STD DEV (LOW-MID 70S). WENT A LITTLE
ABOVE WPC GUIDANCE AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S
INLAND TO LOW 60S NEAR THE COAST. FEW LOCALES IN THE PIEDMONT MAY
DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH NE-E WINDS OVER THE
CWA. VFR CONDS GENERALLY PREVAIL OVER THE REGION BUT WITH MID AND
LOW CLOUDS DUE TO PLENTY OF MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC. WINDS ARE
MOSTLY 10 KT OR LESS BUT SOME GUSTY CONDS PERSIST CLOSE TO THE
COAST. A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE REGION DUE TO A WEAK SFC
TROF OR UPSLOPE IN THE PIEDMONT. NO SIG WX EXPECTED THRU THE
PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THIN OUT THIS AFTN/EVENING FROM RIC
EAST...WHILE MORE CLOUDINESS AND PSBL MVFR CONDS EXPECTED WEST OF
RIC.


OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
SUN. AN AREA OF LOW PRES MOVG UP THE EAST COAST MAY BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHC OF RAIN FOR NE NC AND SE VA LATE SUN
INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NELY FLOW EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND.
GRADIENT DOES STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS
REACHING 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. E-NE FLOW WILL HELP TO
BUILD SEAS THROUGH THE DAY...REACHING 4-5 FEET ON THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SCA HEADLINES GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE FAR
SOUTHERN WATERS AT 7 PM THIS EVENING...AND 1 AM SAT FOR THE
REMAINING COASTAL ZONES. IF WINDS END UP STRONGER THAN FORECAST...
6-7 FT SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE OUT AROUND 20 NM. 4 FT WAVES WOULD ALSO
POSSIBLE AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY PUSH OFF THE NE COAST SAT AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY OFF THE SE COAST. THE LOW
WILL LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY THRU THE WEEKEND...LOCATING OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOMETIME LATE THIS WEEKEND. SCA CONDITIONS FOR
WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM BASED ON THE GRADIENT WIND
FORECAST. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED (4-5 FT) THRU
SAT...BEFORE SUBSIDING ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH WINDS
TURNING OFFSHORE.

SFC LOW LIFTS NE OFF THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH A COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT-MON MORNING. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY
BUILD TO 5 FT AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. NW WINDS 10-15 KT ON MONDAY WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME N-NE ON TUESDAY. SEAS 2-4 FT. WAVES 1-2 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LATEST DROUGHT INFO SHOWING AN AREA OF ABNORMALLY DRY CNDTNS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF VA. THIS INCLUDES AREAS N OF I 64 & RT 360 (INCLUDING
THE RIC METRO AREA) IN AKQ FA. OTHER THAN SCT CONVECTION WITH THE
FRNT SUN EVE...XTNDD MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF RELIEF
FOR THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...JDM
HYDROLOGY...






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191816
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
216 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS WARMING TEMPERATURES UP TO AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.
SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD SFC HIGH FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL ENSURE DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. AS THE HIGH HAS SLOWLY
PIVOTED EAST OVER THE LAST DAY OR TWO...OUR AREA HAS FOUND ITSELF
ON THE SW QUADRANT BRINGING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA. THIS
SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS BEEN ADVECTING MID-ATLANTIC MOISTURE ALONG THE ERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS AND IS CURRENTLY MANIFESTING ITSELF IN
INCREASED CLOUD COVER EVIDENT ON THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE ALTOCU DEVELOPMENT SPREAD WEST WITH
SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOISTURE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE SOME TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE LOWER
TERRAIN...BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AS SFC GRADIENT BEGINS TO
TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE SUNDAY COLD FRONT. AM TRENDING LOWER WITH
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...BUT INCREASED BL FLOW ALONE SHOULD
PRECLUDE EXTENSIVE FOG DEVELOPMENT. WARM SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY TO REACH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH FLIRTING WITH THE 80 DEGREE MARK.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS KEEP THE MOISTURE TRAPPED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE MOISTURE MIXES OUT
ALLOWING FOR A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD HINDER WIDESPREAD SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
SO WILL LEAVE POP IN THE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE.

FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON GETTING A PUSH FROM A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL SWING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO MOISTURE POOLING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. IN
ADDITION...THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL INCLUDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MODELS MAY BE OVERPLAYING THEIR HANDS A BIT ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH
CURRENT DATA...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT STRONGER CONVECTION
COULD DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL EXIT REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL DRY AND COOL PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SCATTERED ALTOCU AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS. EXPECTING MORE OF THE SAME FOR SATURDAY...SAVE FOR
INCREASED SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW THAT COULD AT TIMES GUST 15-20KTS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
GENERAL RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH A SUNDAY
COLDFRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191816
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
216 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS WARMING TEMPERATURES UP TO AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.
SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD SFC HIGH FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL ENSURE DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. AS THE HIGH HAS SLOWLY
PIVOTED EAST OVER THE LAST DAY OR TWO...OUR AREA HAS FOUND ITSELF
ON THE SW QUADRANT BRINGING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA. THIS
SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS BEEN ADVECTING MID-ATLANTIC MOISTURE ALONG THE ERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS AND IS CURRENTLY MANIFESTING ITSELF IN
INCREASED CLOUD COVER EVIDENT ON THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE ALTOCU DEVELOPMENT SPREAD WEST WITH
SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOISTURE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE SOME TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE LOWER
TERRAIN...BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AS SFC GRADIENT BEGINS TO
TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE SUNDAY COLD FRONT. AM TRENDING LOWER WITH
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...BUT INCREASED BL FLOW ALONE SHOULD
PRECLUDE EXTENSIVE FOG DEVELOPMENT. WARM SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY TO REACH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH FLIRTING WITH THE 80 DEGREE MARK.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS KEEP THE MOISTURE TRAPPED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE MOISTURE MIXES OUT
ALLOWING FOR A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD HINDER WIDESPREAD SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
SO WILL LEAVE POP IN THE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE.

FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON GETTING A PUSH FROM A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL SWING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO MOISTURE POOLING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. IN
ADDITION...THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL INCLUDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MODELS MAY BE OVERPLAYING THEIR HANDS A BIT ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH
CURRENT DATA...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT STRONGER CONVECTION
COULD DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL EXIT REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL DRY AND COOL PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SCATTERED ALTOCU AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS. EXPECTING MORE OF THE SAME FOR SATURDAY...SAVE FOR
INCREASED SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW THAT COULD AT TIMES GUST 15-20KTS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
GENERAL RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH A SUNDAY
COLDFRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191816
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
216 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS WARMING TEMPERATURES UP TO AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.
SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD SFC HIGH FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL ENSURE DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. AS THE HIGH HAS SLOWLY
PIVOTED EAST OVER THE LAST DAY OR TWO...OUR AREA HAS FOUND ITSELF
ON THE SW QUADRANT BRINGING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA. THIS
SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS BEEN ADVECTING MID-ATLANTIC MOISTURE ALONG THE ERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS AND IS CURRENTLY MANIFESTING ITSELF IN
INCREASED CLOUD COVER EVIDENT ON THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE ALTOCU DEVELOPMENT SPREAD WEST WITH
SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOISTURE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE SOME TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE LOWER
TERRAIN...BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AS SFC GRADIENT BEGINS TO
TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE SUNDAY COLD FRONT. AM TRENDING LOWER WITH
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...BUT INCREASED BL FLOW ALONE SHOULD
PRECLUDE EXTENSIVE FOG DEVELOPMENT. WARM SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY TO REACH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH FLIRTING WITH THE 80 DEGREE MARK.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS KEEP THE MOISTURE TRAPPED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE MOISTURE MIXES OUT
ALLOWING FOR A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD HINDER WIDESPREAD SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
SO WILL LEAVE POP IN THE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE.

FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON GETTING A PUSH FROM A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL SWING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO MOISTURE POOLING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. IN
ADDITION...THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL INCLUDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MODELS MAY BE OVERPLAYING THEIR HANDS A BIT ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH
CURRENT DATA...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT STRONGER CONVECTION
COULD DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL EXIT REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL DRY AND COOL PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SCATTERED ALTOCU AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS. EXPECTING MORE OF THE SAME FOR SATURDAY...SAVE FOR
INCREASED SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW THAT COULD AT TIMES GUST 15-20KTS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
GENERAL RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH A SUNDAY
COLDFRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191816
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
216 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS WARMING TEMPERATURES UP TO AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.
SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD SFC HIGH FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL ENSURE DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. AS THE HIGH HAS SLOWLY
PIVOTED EAST OVER THE LAST DAY OR TWO...OUR AREA HAS FOUND ITSELF
ON THE SW QUADRANT BRINGING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA. THIS
SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS BEEN ADVECTING MID-ATLANTIC MOISTURE ALONG THE ERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS AND IS CURRENTLY MANIFESTING ITSELF IN
INCREASED CLOUD COVER EVIDENT ON THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE ALTOCU DEVELOPMENT SPREAD WEST WITH
SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOISTURE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE SOME TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE LOWER
TERRAIN...BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AS SFC GRADIENT BEGINS TO
TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE SUNDAY COLD FRONT. AM TRENDING LOWER WITH
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...BUT INCREASED BL FLOW ALONE SHOULD
PRECLUDE EXTENSIVE FOG DEVELOPMENT. WARM SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY TO REACH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH FLIRTING WITH THE 80 DEGREE MARK.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS KEEP THE MOISTURE TRAPPED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE MOISTURE MIXES OUT
ALLOWING FOR A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD HINDER WIDESPREAD SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
SO WILL LEAVE POP IN THE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE.

FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON GETTING A PUSH FROM A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL SWING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO MOISTURE POOLING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. IN
ADDITION...THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL INCLUDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MODELS MAY BE OVERPLAYING THEIR HANDS A BIT ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH
CURRENT DATA...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT STRONGER CONVECTION
COULD DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL EXIT REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL DRY AND COOL PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SCATTERED ALTOCU AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS. EXPECTING MORE OF THE SAME FOR SATURDAY...SAVE FOR
INCREASED SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW THAT COULD AT TIMES GUST 15-20KTS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
GENERAL RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH A SUNDAY
COLDFRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KLWX 191759
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
159 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND SOUTHWEST FROM
THIS HIGH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THIS TIME. THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST DURING THIS TIME.
THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE MOISTURE TO GET TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE
SUBISDINCE INVERSION...RESULTING IN MORE CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL
VIRGINIA INTO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. HOWEVER...FOR LOCATIONS
FARTHER NORTH AND EAST THERE WILL BE SOME SUNSHINE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. A COUPLE SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MOST AREAS WILL BE
DRY.

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...CAUSING LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND SHENANDOAH VALLEY TO THE LOWER 60S IN
DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY...AND AN
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE. HOWEVER...THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
SHOULD LOWER DUE TO RISING PRESSURES OVERHEAD BETWEEN A COLD FRONT
OVER THE MIDWEST AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST. WITH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...THIS
MEANS THAT ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY
TO SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
NEAR 80 ACROSS THE WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT...BUT MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTH WILL BE
MEAGER. STILL...THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FORCING THE COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO BE PRETTY STRONG BY THE MODELS AND THAT SHOULD IN TURN
FORCE NARROW BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY OR PERHAPS
SPOTTY DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WHERE
ADDED TERRAIN FORCING COULD RESULT IN BRIEFLY MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY WANE AS THEY PUSH EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AND TOWARDS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY DURING THE EVENING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS FROM
CANADA RESULTING IN DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DRY AND FALL-LIKE WEEK IS FORECAST FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS A
LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY PUSHES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/EASTERN CONUS AND RIDGING PERSISTS ALOFT. WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SHALLOW MOISTURE IN LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW...THE SETUP COULD BE IDEAL ON MORE THAN ONE OCCASION FOR LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG OR STRATUS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
CENTRAL VIRGINIA MAY SPREAD NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT. CERTAINTY IS
LOW AS TO HOW WIDESPREAD THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE. FOR NOW...MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE TERMINALS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. IFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY AT KCHO DURING THIS TIME. ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BURN
OFF LATER SATURDAY MORNING AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON.

SUB-VFR PSBL SUN IN SPARSE COVERAGE SHWRS/TSTMS IN AFTN/EVE. WINDS
SW 10 KTS SUN. VFR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND
FRONT W/ W WINDS 10-15 KTS W/ GUSTS TO 20 KTS PSBL SUN
NIGHT-MON...THEN N LESS 10 KTS OR LESS MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT.
MODERATELY HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN OVERALL SETUP AS MODELS ARE
IN AGREEMENT WITH TYPICAL TIMING DIFFERENCES REVOLVING AROUND THE
WIND SHIFT IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE FRONT AND THE TIMING OF HIGHER
GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A PRESSURE SURGE WILL CAUSE
WINDS TO INCREASE A BIT OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER
TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...BUT IT WILL BE MARGINAL. WINDS SHOULD BE A
BIT WEAKER SATURDAY AS THE GRADIENT SUBSIDES A BIT.

S FLOW AROUND 10 KTS OR SO AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SAT NIGHT-SUN ALONG
W/ CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS WHICH COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS SUN
EVE. FRONT AND PRECIP CLEARS THE COAST SUN NIGHT AND WINDS BECOME W
OR NW 10-15 KTS GUSTS 20 KTS. WINDS BECOME N 10 KTS MON NIGHT-WED
BEFORE VEERING AROUND TO THE E LATER IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY MIGRATES TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE AROUND ONE-HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TURN TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND THIS MAY ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS.

MINOR TIDAL FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THERE
IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLES LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL/DFH
LONG TERM...BJL/DFH
AVIATION...BJL/DFH
MARINE...BJL/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL







000
FXUS61 KLWX 191759
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
159 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND SOUTHWEST FROM
THIS HIGH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THIS TIME. THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST DURING THIS TIME.
THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE MOISTURE TO GET TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE
SUBISDINCE INVERSION...RESULTING IN MORE CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL
VIRGINIA INTO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. HOWEVER...FOR LOCATIONS
FARTHER NORTH AND EAST THERE WILL BE SOME SUNSHINE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. A COUPLE SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MOST AREAS WILL BE
DRY.

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...CAUSING LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND SHENANDOAH VALLEY TO THE LOWER 60S IN
DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY...AND AN
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE. HOWEVER...THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
SHOULD LOWER DUE TO RISING PRESSURES OVERHEAD BETWEEN A COLD FRONT
OVER THE MIDWEST AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST. WITH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...THIS
MEANS THAT ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY
TO SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
NEAR 80 ACROSS THE WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT...BUT MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTH WILL BE
MEAGER. STILL...THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FORCING THE COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO BE PRETTY STRONG BY THE MODELS AND THAT SHOULD IN TURN
FORCE NARROW BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY OR PERHAPS
SPOTTY DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WHERE
ADDED TERRAIN FORCING COULD RESULT IN BRIEFLY MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY WANE AS THEY PUSH EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AND TOWARDS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY DURING THE EVENING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS FROM
CANADA RESULTING IN DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DRY AND FALL-LIKE WEEK IS FORECAST FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS A
LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY PUSHES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/EASTERN CONUS AND RIDGING PERSISTS ALOFT. WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SHALLOW MOISTURE IN LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW...THE SETUP COULD BE IDEAL ON MORE THAN ONE OCCASION FOR LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG OR STRATUS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
CENTRAL VIRGINIA MAY SPREAD NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT. CERTAINTY IS
LOW AS TO HOW WIDESPREAD THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE. FOR NOW...MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE TERMINALS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. IFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY AT KCHO DURING THIS TIME. ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BURN
OFF LATER SATURDAY MORNING AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON.

SUB-VFR PSBL SUN IN SPARSE COVERAGE SHWRS/TSTMS IN AFTN/EVE. WINDS
SW 10 KTS SUN. VFR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND
FRONT W/ W WINDS 10-15 KTS W/ GUSTS TO 20 KTS PSBL SUN
NIGHT-MON...THEN N LESS 10 KTS OR LESS MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT.
MODERATELY HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN OVERALL SETUP AS MODELS ARE
IN AGREEMENT WITH TYPICAL TIMING DIFFERENCES REVOLVING AROUND THE
WIND SHIFT IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE FRONT AND THE TIMING OF HIGHER
GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A PRESSURE SURGE WILL CAUSE
WINDS TO INCREASE A BIT OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER
TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...BUT IT WILL BE MARGINAL. WINDS SHOULD BE A
BIT WEAKER SATURDAY AS THE GRADIENT SUBSIDES A BIT.

S FLOW AROUND 10 KTS OR SO AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SAT NIGHT-SUN ALONG
W/ CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS WHICH COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS SUN
EVE. FRONT AND PRECIP CLEARS THE COAST SUN NIGHT AND WINDS BECOME W
OR NW 10-15 KTS GUSTS 20 KTS. WINDS BECOME N 10 KTS MON NIGHT-WED
BEFORE VEERING AROUND TO THE E LATER IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY MIGRATES TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE AROUND ONE-HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TURN TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND THIS MAY ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS.

MINOR TIDAL FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THERE
IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLES LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL/DFH
LONG TERM...BJL/DFH
AVIATION...BJL/DFH
MARINE...BJL/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL








000
FXUS61 KPHI 191413
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1013 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY AND
THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
MONDAY AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
13Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1031 MB SFC HIGH CENTERED JUST NORTH OF
MONTREAL. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NOSE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD,
RESULTING IN A COOL NORTHEAST BREEZE THIS MORNING. THIS HIGH WILL
SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY. LOW-LEVEL WINDS AROUND THE HIGH WILL VEER
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATOCU CAN ALREADY BE SEEN NEAR THE NJ (AND TO
A LESSER EXTENT THE DE COAST) ON THE MID MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE,
WHICH IS A PROXY FOR WHERE THE MARINE LAYER HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED
AND FOR THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. BASED ON
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP GUIDANCE (WHICH HAS
INITIALIZED WELL WITH LOW-LEVEL RH FIELD), MARINE-LAYER STRATOCU
EXPECTED TO ADVECT INLAND AS FAR WEST AS EASTERN PA TODAY. MIXING
SHOULD BE DEEP ENOUGH ON LAND TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON AWAY FROM THE COAST.

RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
WILL PRODUCE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
KEPT MEASURABLE PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST, BUT ADDED IN SPRINKLES
FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN NJ AND THE DELMARVA. THIS PORTION OF THE AREA
SHOULD BE LOCATED CLOSER TO THE GREATER LIFT AND MOISTURE RETURN.

MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMP FORECAST BASED ON SKY COVER UPDATES.
MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
ALONG THE CENTRAL NJ COAST TO LOW/MID 70S SOUTHEAST PA AND THE
DELMARVA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS AND ENDS WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW. MODELS, INCLUDING
STAT GUIDANCE, HAVE CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT. THIS LOOKS
REASONABLE. IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, SOME
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR UPSLOPE ZONES WEST OF THE DELAWARE
VALLEY AND LOCALES ALONG THE COAST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS OUT NORTHWEST
ZONES AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATURDAY...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY DRY DAY ACROSS THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH, THERE
IS NOT AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AROUND AND IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE WE
WILL SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.

RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP TO BRING IN
SOME MOISTER AND WARMER AIR. MAX TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL DROP INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH TOWARDS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THE FRONTS PROGRESS APPEARS TO BE ON THE SLOW SIDE
AND IT LIKELY WONT REACH THE REGION UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY AND WON`T
FULLY MOVE OFFSHORE UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WE
HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THE INSTABILITY ISN`T TERRIBLY STRONG BUT IT IS
AVAILABLE AND WE CAN`T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OR TWO ACROSS THE REGION.
BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK ACROSS OUR AREA AS MAX
TEMPS REACH INTO THE 80S. BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 50S. WHERE SKIES START TO
CLEAR A BIT MORE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS, WE COULD
SEE TEMPS DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S.

MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND WE
SHOULD SEE SOME DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVING IN ON THE NORTHWEST
FLOW. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CLEAR QUICKLY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
AROUND 8-12 DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE REGION. MOST AREAS WILL SEE
MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FEEL
CONSIDERABLY COLDER, WITH MOST PLACE DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 40S,
WITH SOME 50S POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST.

TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST ON TUESDAY. THE HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION AND SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER PRETTY DRY WITH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND MAY SPARK OFF A FEW SHOWERS. FOR
NOW, WE HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AS THE SOUNDINGS LOOK PRETTY
DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING 10-15 KT WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST NEAR 20
KT FROM THE PHILLY TERMINALS SOUTH AND EAST. GRADIENT FLOW WEAKENS A
BIT THIS AFTN AS WINDS VEER OUT OF THE EAST. MARINE AIRMASS WILL
MOVE INLAND AS WELL WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. NEEDED TO
UPDATE 12Z TAFS FOR A FEW LOCATIONS AS STRATOCU HAS DEVELOPED SOONER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR DURING THE AFTN
AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT ACY, WHERE MARINE AIR IS MORE ESTABLISHED.

TONIGHT...WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW, LOWERING AND THICKENING CLOUDS CAN
BE EXPECTED. FOR NOW WE`LL DROP THINGS DOWN TO MVFR, 1500-2500 FT.
SOME DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS KABE, KRDG, KACY, AND
KMIV. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST, BUT LIGHTEN UP A BIT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWER CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EARLY...THEN
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY. LOWER VISIBILITIES
AND CEILINGS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON MONDAY...LESS WINDY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BOTH BUOY 44065 AND 44025 ARE FINALLY BACK IN SERVICE!

NORTHEAST WIND SURGE HAS ADVANCED SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST THIS
MORNING, REACHING ATLANTIC CITY BY 10 AM WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.
HAVE EXPANDED SCA TO INCLUDE LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG
INLET. SCA ALREADY IN EFFECT TODAY FOR MARINE ZONES FARTHER
NORTH. WINDS WILL LIKELY SUBSIDE A BIT TO BELOW SCA THRESHOLD
DURING THE AFTN BUT SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUATION OF SCA CONDITIONS THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

TONIGHT...ALSO MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE GRIDS. WE`VE BACKED OFF OF
HEADLINES AND HAVE DELAYED THE SCA FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS. ACROSS
THE NORTHERN WATERS, WE`LL HAVE THE SCA RUN THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. LOOKS
LIKE A LOWER END SCA WITH WINDS TOPPING OUT AROUND 20 KT AND SEAS 5
FT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...SEAS LOOK TO BE ELEVATED HEADING THROUGH
THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND WILL GRADUALLY START TO SUBSIDE INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME. IT MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOR A PERIOD UNTIL SEAS FALL BELOW
5 FEET. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE WATERS.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN ADDITION, WINDS AND WAVES WILL
START TO INCREASE AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

TUESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
WITH LONG PERIOD SWELLS STILL PRESENT TODAY, A TIGHTENING GRADIENT
AND INCREASING WAVE HEIGHTS, IN HOUSE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
A MODERATE RISK TODAY FOR NJ AND DE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ452.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ453>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450-451.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...KLEIN/KRUZDLO/MEOLA
MARINE...KLEIN/KRUZDLO/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...KRUZDLO






000
FXUS61 KPHI 191413
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1013 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY AND
THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
MONDAY AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
13Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1031 MB SFC HIGH CENTERED JUST NORTH OF
MONTREAL. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NOSE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD,
RESULTING IN A COOL NORTHEAST BREEZE THIS MORNING. THIS HIGH WILL
SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY. LOW-LEVEL WINDS AROUND THE HIGH WILL VEER
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATOCU CAN ALREADY BE SEEN NEAR THE NJ (AND TO
A LESSER EXTENT THE DE COAST) ON THE MID MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE,
WHICH IS A PROXY FOR WHERE THE MARINE LAYER HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED
AND FOR THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. BASED ON
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP GUIDANCE (WHICH HAS
INITIALIZED WELL WITH LOW-LEVEL RH FIELD), MARINE-LAYER STRATOCU
EXPECTED TO ADVECT INLAND AS FAR WEST AS EASTERN PA TODAY. MIXING
SHOULD BE DEEP ENOUGH ON LAND TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON AWAY FROM THE COAST.

RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
WILL PRODUCE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
KEPT MEASURABLE PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST, BUT ADDED IN SPRINKLES
FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN NJ AND THE DELMARVA. THIS PORTION OF THE AREA
SHOULD BE LOCATED CLOSER TO THE GREATER LIFT AND MOISTURE RETURN.

MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMP FORECAST BASED ON SKY COVER UPDATES.
MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
ALONG THE CENTRAL NJ COAST TO LOW/MID 70S SOUTHEAST PA AND THE
DELMARVA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS AND ENDS WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW. MODELS, INCLUDING
STAT GUIDANCE, HAVE CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT. THIS LOOKS
REASONABLE. IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, SOME
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR UPSLOPE ZONES WEST OF THE DELAWARE
VALLEY AND LOCALES ALONG THE COAST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS OUT NORTHWEST
ZONES AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATURDAY...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY DRY DAY ACROSS THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH, THERE
IS NOT AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AROUND AND IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE WE
WILL SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.

RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP TO BRING IN
SOME MOISTER AND WARMER AIR. MAX TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL DROP INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH TOWARDS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THE FRONTS PROGRESS APPEARS TO BE ON THE SLOW SIDE
AND IT LIKELY WONT REACH THE REGION UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY AND WON`T
FULLY MOVE OFFSHORE UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WE
HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THE INSTABILITY ISN`T TERRIBLY STRONG BUT IT IS
AVAILABLE AND WE CAN`T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OR TWO ACROSS THE REGION.
BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK ACROSS OUR AREA AS MAX
TEMPS REACH INTO THE 80S. BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 50S. WHERE SKIES START TO
CLEAR A BIT MORE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS, WE COULD
SEE TEMPS DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S.

MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND WE
SHOULD SEE SOME DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVING IN ON THE NORTHWEST
FLOW. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CLEAR QUICKLY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
AROUND 8-12 DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE REGION. MOST AREAS WILL SEE
MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FEEL
CONSIDERABLY COLDER, WITH MOST PLACE DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 40S,
WITH SOME 50S POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST.

TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST ON TUESDAY. THE HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION AND SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER PRETTY DRY WITH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND MAY SPARK OFF A FEW SHOWERS. FOR
NOW, WE HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AS THE SOUNDINGS LOOK PRETTY
DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING 10-15 KT WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST NEAR 20
KT FROM THE PHILLY TERMINALS SOUTH AND EAST. GRADIENT FLOW WEAKENS A
BIT THIS AFTN AS WINDS VEER OUT OF THE EAST. MARINE AIRMASS WILL
MOVE INLAND AS WELL WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. NEEDED TO
UPDATE 12Z TAFS FOR A FEW LOCATIONS AS STRATOCU HAS DEVELOPED SOONER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR DURING THE AFTN
AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT ACY, WHERE MARINE AIR IS MORE ESTABLISHED.

TONIGHT...WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW, LOWERING AND THICKENING CLOUDS CAN
BE EXPECTED. FOR NOW WE`LL DROP THINGS DOWN TO MVFR, 1500-2500 FT.
SOME DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS KABE, KRDG, KACY, AND
KMIV. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST, BUT LIGHTEN UP A BIT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWER CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EARLY...THEN
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY. LOWER VISIBILITIES
AND CEILINGS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON MONDAY...LESS WINDY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BOTH BUOY 44065 AND 44025 ARE FINALLY BACK IN SERVICE!

NORTHEAST WIND SURGE HAS ADVANCED SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST THIS
MORNING, REACHING ATLANTIC CITY BY 10 AM WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.
HAVE EXPANDED SCA TO INCLUDE LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG
INLET. SCA ALREADY IN EFFECT TODAY FOR MARINE ZONES FARTHER
NORTH. WINDS WILL LIKELY SUBSIDE A BIT TO BELOW SCA THRESHOLD
DURING THE AFTN BUT SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUATION OF SCA CONDITIONS THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

TONIGHT...ALSO MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE GRIDS. WE`VE BACKED OFF OF
HEADLINES AND HAVE DELAYED THE SCA FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS. ACROSS
THE NORTHERN WATERS, WE`LL HAVE THE SCA RUN THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. LOOKS
LIKE A LOWER END SCA WITH WINDS TOPPING OUT AROUND 20 KT AND SEAS 5
FT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...SEAS LOOK TO BE ELEVATED HEADING THROUGH
THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND WILL GRADUALLY START TO SUBSIDE INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME. IT MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOR A PERIOD UNTIL SEAS FALL BELOW
5 FEET. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE WATERS.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN ADDITION, WINDS AND WAVES WILL
START TO INCREASE AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

TUESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
WITH LONG PERIOD SWELLS STILL PRESENT TODAY, A TIGHTENING GRADIENT
AND INCREASING WAVE HEIGHTS, IN HOUSE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
A MODERATE RISK TODAY FOR NJ AND DE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ452.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ453>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450-451.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...KLEIN/KRUZDLO/MEOLA
MARINE...KLEIN/KRUZDLO/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...KRUZDLO





000
FXUS61 KLWX 191310
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
910 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS ONTARIO THIS MORNING. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL BEGIN TO WEDGE DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS SOUTH INTO OUR
AREA...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN
PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS...BUT THE DRIER AIR CLOSER TO THE HIGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS THE WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN
AREAS AS WELL AS FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS
THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S NEAR WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE INTO SOUTHERN MARYLAND.


HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. EASTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. COVERAGE OF LOW STRATUS WILL
INCREASE AND MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...SHENANDOAH
VALLEY AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN ITS HOLD ON THE MID-ATLANTIC
SATURDAY AS IT MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA. AS WITH MANY CAD
SETUPS...STRATUS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE REGION ALTHOUGH
WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY. SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
FCST MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING BETWEEN AN OFFSHORE TROPICAL LOW AND A STRONG
COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PRESENT WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
GROUND/RIVER FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...AND MAINTAINED MENTION FOR
FAVORED AREAS. WARM AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL
WINDS VEER AND H85 TEMPS CLIMB TO THE MID TEENS CELSIUS. THIS WARMER
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS
REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S. MODELS NOW SHOWING A RELATIVELY NARROW
AXIS OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AREAS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION OF THUNDER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. WILL ALSO SEE INCREASING DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS POTENT SHORT WAVE IN BASE OF LONG
WAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE TIMING OF
THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR REMAIN DISCONNECTED HOWEVER...BUT A
FEW ORGANIZED STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
INSTABILITY DROPS OFF RAPIDLY SUNDAY EVENING AS FRONT PROGRESSES
EASTWARD. HOWEVER SHEAR INCREASES SO GUSTY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. GOOD COLD AIR
ADVECTION LOOKS TO BEGIN A BIG EARLIER /NOW ON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/
AND CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AS UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
OVERHEAD. WILL SEE INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS AND MUCH COOLER/DRIER
AIR MONDAY. SHOULD ALSO SEE DOWNSLOPING TEMPERATURE EFFECT FOR AREAS
EAST OF THE RIDGES ON MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS COOL AND DRY AIRMASS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST FULL DAY OF ASTRONOMICAL FALL
-TUESDAY...AS WELL AS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS MOST AREAS...BUT DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS KCHO. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
MVFR CIGS WILL EXPAND TONIGHT REACHING MRB AND POSSIBLY KIAD BY
SATURDAY MORNING. CIGS MAY BECOME IFR AT KCHO. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
SOUTH BY SATURDAY MORNING AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF LATER IN
THE MORNING OR PERHAPS EARLY AFTERNOON.

A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE LATE. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS IT CROSSES THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MONDAY. COOL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER
TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER THIS MORNING. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS...BUT GUSTS WILL BE
CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER
TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WINDS VEER SOUTH. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE WATERS SUNDAY EVENING...BRINGING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY MONDAY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...AND A SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES HAVE DROPPED BELOW A FOOT THIS MORNING AND COASTAL
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

AN ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...CAUSING
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ530>534-537-
     539>541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...AEB
LONG TERM...AEB
AVIATION...BJL/HAS/AEB
MARINE...BJL/HAS/AEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HAS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 191310
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
910 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS ONTARIO THIS MORNING. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL BEGIN TO WEDGE DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS SOUTH INTO OUR
AREA...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN
PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS...BUT THE DRIER AIR CLOSER TO THE HIGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS THE WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN
AREAS AS WELL AS FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS
THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S NEAR WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE INTO SOUTHERN MARYLAND.


HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. EASTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. COVERAGE OF LOW STRATUS WILL
INCREASE AND MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...SHENANDOAH
VALLEY AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN ITS HOLD ON THE MID-ATLANTIC
SATURDAY AS IT MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA. AS WITH MANY CAD
SETUPS...STRATUS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE REGION ALTHOUGH
WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY. SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
FCST MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING BETWEEN AN OFFSHORE TROPICAL LOW AND A STRONG
COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PRESENT WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
GROUND/RIVER FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...AND MAINTAINED MENTION FOR
FAVORED AREAS. WARM AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL
WINDS VEER AND H85 TEMPS CLIMB TO THE MID TEENS CELSIUS. THIS WARMER
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS
REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S. MODELS NOW SHOWING A RELATIVELY NARROW
AXIS OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AREAS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION OF THUNDER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. WILL ALSO SEE INCREASING DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS POTENT SHORT WAVE IN BASE OF LONG
WAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE TIMING OF
THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR REMAIN DISCONNECTED HOWEVER...BUT A
FEW ORGANIZED STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
INSTABILITY DROPS OFF RAPIDLY SUNDAY EVENING AS FRONT PROGRESSES
EASTWARD. HOWEVER SHEAR INCREASES SO GUSTY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. GOOD COLD AIR
ADVECTION LOOKS TO BEGIN A BIG EARLIER /NOW ON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/
AND CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AS UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
OVERHEAD. WILL SEE INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS AND MUCH COOLER/DRIER
AIR MONDAY. SHOULD ALSO SEE DOWNSLOPING TEMPERATURE EFFECT FOR AREAS
EAST OF THE RIDGES ON MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS COOL AND DRY AIRMASS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST FULL DAY OF ASTRONOMICAL FALL
-TUESDAY...AS WELL AS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS MOST AREAS...BUT DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS KCHO. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
MVFR CIGS WILL EXPAND TONIGHT REACHING MRB AND POSSIBLY KIAD BY
SATURDAY MORNING. CIGS MAY BECOME IFR AT KCHO. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
SOUTH BY SATURDAY MORNING AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF LATER IN
THE MORNING OR PERHAPS EARLY AFTERNOON.

A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE LATE. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS IT CROSSES THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MONDAY. COOL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER
TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER THIS MORNING. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS...BUT GUSTS WILL BE
CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER
TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WINDS VEER SOUTH. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE WATERS SUNDAY EVENING...BRINGING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY MONDAY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...AND A SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES HAVE DROPPED BELOW A FOOT THIS MORNING AND COASTAL
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

AN ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...CAUSING
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ530>534-537-
     539>541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...AEB
LONG TERM...AEB
AVIATION...BJL/HAS/AEB
MARINE...BJL/HAS/AEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HAS







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191041
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
641 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS
THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO UPDATES WILL BE NEEDED THIS MORNING AS LATEST OBSERVATIONS
MATCH UP WELL WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST. PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..

WEAK
BOUNDARY WILL CLEAR THE SOUTH THIS MORNING. BROAD SURFACE HIGH
WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND TODAY. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS
WILL GRADUALLY RISE AS RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. SOMEWHAT
INTERESTING SCENARIO SETS UP THIS AFTERNOON AS FLOW AT 850 BACKS
TOWARD THE SOUTH AND INCREASES. AT THE SAME TIME...FLOW NEAR THE
SURFACE REMAINS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. LATEST NAM IS SHOWING
MOISTURE INCREASING OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC THEN DRIVING NORTHWARD
IN THE STRENGTHENING FLOW AT 850. WOULD EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER OVER AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS KEEP THE MOISTURE TRAPPED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE MOISTURE MIXES OUT
ALLOWING FOR A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD HINDER WIDESPREAD SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
SO WILL LEAVE POP IN THE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE.

FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON GETTING A PUSH FROM A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL SWING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO MOISTURE POOLING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. IN
ADDITION...THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL INCLUDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MODELS MAY BE OVERPLAYING THEIR HANDS A BIT ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH
CURRENT DATA...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT STRONGER CONVECTION
COULD DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL EXIT REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL DRY AND COOL PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVERAGE AND LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
GENL RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH A SUNDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 191000
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
600 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS WEST AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST MSAS INDCTG WEAK SFC TROF FROM SRN DELAWARE SW ACROSS THE
VA & NC PIEDMONTS. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW SCT SHWRS ALONG THIS
BNDRY MAINLY ALONG RT 460 WEST OF PTB.

MODELS AGREE IN SHIFTING THIS TROF WEST ACROSS THE MTS TODAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. TSCTNS SHOWING
ENUF MSTR AT DIFFERENT LEVELS FOR SCT-BKN CLOUDS ALONG WITH A NE
WIND FLOW. ANY TRIGGER FOR SCT SHWRS DRIFTS WEST THRU OUT THE DAY.
GIVEN THESE TRENDS...HELD ONTO CHC POPS THIS MORN ACROSS THE WRN
HALF OF FA ALTHOUGH CHCS DECREASE TO SLGHT CHC BY LATE AFTRN. OTW...
VRBL CLDNS WITH HIGHS IN THE M-U70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
VRBL CLDNS AGAIN TONIGHT BUT DRY AS SPRT FOR ANY SHWRS SHIFTS WEST.
SOME PTCHY FOG PSBL BUT WON`T INCLUDE IN GRIDS ATTM. LOWS IN THE
M50S-L60S.

NE FLOW CONTINUES ON SAT AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES FARTHER OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. TSCTNS SHOWING SOME DRYING AT MID LEVELS FOR MOST OF
THE DAY SO WILL KEEP A DRY FCST UNDER PT TO MSTLY SUNNY SKIES. H85
TMPS RISE TO BTWN 12-14C ALLOWING HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE U70S-M80S.

SFC LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO DVLP OFF THE SERN COAST SAT THEN TRACK
NE ALONG THE GULF STREAM SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING BEFORE LIFTING NE
AND AWAY FROM THE AREA SUN AFTRN. STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WRT
HOW FAR WEST MSTR FROM THIS SYSTM GETS. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT MORE CLOUDS OVR ERN HALF OF FA WITH SLGHT CHC POPS ALONG
THE COAST SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING. LOWS SAT NIGHT U50S-M60S.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM THE RGN SUN WHILE THE NXT COLD
FRNT APPRCHS FROM THE WEST. DATA SUPPORTS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS
SYSTM RESULTING IN SKIES BCMG PT TO MSTLY SUNNY BY THE AFTRN. H85
TMPS APPRCH SUMMER LEVELS (14-16C) ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH THE
M-U80S. A 90 DEGREE READING IS PSBL OVR THE PIEDMONT GIVEN HOW DRY
THE GROUND IS ATTM.

ADJUSTED SUN NIGHTS FCST A BIT GIVEN THE LATEST TRENDS OF MSTR ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DVLP ACROSS THE MTS LATE
SUN AFTRN THEN DRIFT SE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA WHILE WEAKENING
SUN EVENING. ADDED SLGHT CHC THUNDER GIVEN HOW WARM / MARGINAL INSTAB
PROGGED OUT AHEAD OF BNDRY. KEPT SERN HALF OF FA DRY FOR NOW. LOWS
IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE THE NE.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE ERN CONUS
WITH THE EVOLVING AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN. AMPLIFIED PATTERN
WILL FEATURE A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED SECONDARY/REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED
ALONG THE FRONT (PWATS ~1.5 INCHES)...BUT HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING
WINDS ALOFT (JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH) WILL
PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE REGION. SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED POPS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE NRN
LOCAL AREA. THE BIGGER HEADLINE WITH THE FRONT WILL BE THE DRY AIR
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION POST FRONTAL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE W-NW. MON WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE COOLEST/DRIEST
AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT. REINFORCING SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE GREAT
LAKES-NE STATES TUES AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES OFF THE ERN
SEABOARD. MEANWHILE...MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROGRESS EWD OVER THE
CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO THE ERN CONUS TUES- WEDS. COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE PROGGED TO BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDS. UPPER/SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THURS. THE RESULT WILL BE
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

HIGHS WILL BE BELOW AVG THRU THE PERIOD...WITH TUES AND WEDS BEING
THE COLDEST DAYS AT NEARLY -1 STD DEV (LOW-MID 70S). WENT A LITTLE
ABOVE WPC GUIDANCE AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S
INLAND TO LOW 60S NEAR THE COAST. FEW LOCALES IN THE PIEDMONT MAY
DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 05Z...VFR SHOULD HOLD FOR THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. BKN-OVC CLOUDS
WITH BASES FROM 5 TO 8 KFT WERE OVER MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE
FAR SE. ISOLD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACRS WESTERN SECTIONS...PERHAPS
IMPACTING KRIC. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THOUGH A WEAK COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT TO EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NELY FLOW EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND.
GRADIENT DOES STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS
REACHING 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. E-NE FLOW WILL HELP TO
BUILD SEAS THROUGH THE DAY...REACHING 4-5 FEET ON THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SCA HEADLINES GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE FAR
SOUTHERN WATERS AT 7 PM THIS EVENING...AND 1 AM SAT FOR THE
REMAINING COASTAL ZONES. IF WINDS END UP STRONGER THAN FORECAST...
6-7 FT SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE OUT AROUND 20 NM. 4 FT WAVES WOULD ALSO
POSSIBLE AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY PUSH OFF THE NE COAST SAT AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY OFF THE SE COAST. THE LOW
WILL LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY THRU THE WEEKEND...LOCATING OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOMETIME LATE THIS WEEKEND. SCA CONDITIONS FOR
WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM BASED ON THE GRADIENT WIND
FORECAST. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED (4-5 FT) THRU
SAT...BEFORE SUBSIDING ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH WINDS
TURNING OFFSHORE.

SFC LOW LIFTS NE OFF THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH A COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT-MON MORNING. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY
BUILD TO 5 FT AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. NW WINDS 10-15 KT ON MONDAY WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME N-NE ON TUESDAY. SEAS 2-4 FT. WAVES 1-2 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LATEST DROUGHT INFO SHOWING AN AREA OF ABNORMALLY DRY CNDTNS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF VA. THIS INCLUDES AREAS N OF I 64 & RT 360 (INCLUDING
THE RIC METRO AREA) IN AKQ FA. OTHER THAN SCT CONVECTION WITH THE
FRNT SUN EVE...XTNDD MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF RELIEF
FOR THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 191000
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
600 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS WEST AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST MSAS INDCTG WEAK SFC TROF FROM SRN DELAWARE SW ACROSS THE
VA & NC PIEDMONTS. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW SCT SHWRS ALONG THIS
BNDRY MAINLY ALONG RT 460 WEST OF PTB.

MODELS AGREE IN SHIFTING THIS TROF WEST ACROSS THE MTS TODAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. TSCTNS SHOWING
ENUF MSTR AT DIFFERENT LEVELS FOR SCT-BKN CLOUDS ALONG WITH A NE
WIND FLOW. ANY TRIGGER FOR SCT SHWRS DRIFTS WEST THRU OUT THE DAY.
GIVEN THESE TRENDS...HELD ONTO CHC POPS THIS MORN ACROSS THE WRN
HALF OF FA ALTHOUGH CHCS DECREASE TO SLGHT CHC BY LATE AFTRN. OTW...
VRBL CLDNS WITH HIGHS IN THE M-U70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
VRBL CLDNS AGAIN TONIGHT BUT DRY AS SPRT FOR ANY SHWRS SHIFTS WEST.
SOME PTCHY FOG PSBL BUT WON`T INCLUDE IN GRIDS ATTM. LOWS IN THE
M50S-L60S.

NE FLOW CONTINUES ON SAT AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES FARTHER OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. TSCTNS SHOWING SOME DRYING AT MID LEVELS FOR MOST OF
THE DAY SO WILL KEEP A DRY FCST UNDER PT TO MSTLY SUNNY SKIES. H85
TMPS RISE TO BTWN 12-14C ALLOWING HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE U70S-M80S.

SFC LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO DVLP OFF THE SERN COAST SAT THEN TRACK
NE ALONG THE GULF STREAM SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING BEFORE LIFTING NE
AND AWAY FROM THE AREA SUN AFTRN. STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WRT
HOW FAR WEST MSTR FROM THIS SYSTM GETS. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT MORE CLOUDS OVR ERN HALF OF FA WITH SLGHT CHC POPS ALONG
THE COAST SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING. LOWS SAT NIGHT U50S-M60S.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM THE RGN SUN WHILE THE NXT COLD
FRNT APPRCHS FROM THE WEST. DATA SUPPORTS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS
SYSTM RESULTING IN SKIES BCMG PT TO MSTLY SUNNY BY THE AFTRN. H85
TMPS APPRCH SUMMER LEVELS (14-16C) ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH THE
M-U80S. A 90 DEGREE READING IS PSBL OVR THE PIEDMONT GIVEN HOW DRY
THE GROUND IS ATTM.

ADJUSTED SUN NIGHTS FCST A BIT GIVEN THE LATEST TRENDS OF MSTR ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DVLP ACROSS THE MTS LATE
SUN AFTRN THEN DRIFT SE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA WHILE WEAKENING
SUN EVENING. ADDED SLGHT CHC THUNDER GIVEN HOW WARM / MARGINAL INSTAB
PROGGED OUT AHEAD OF BNDRY. KEPT SERN HALF OF FA DRY FOR NOW. LOWS
IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE THE NE.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE ERN CONUS
WITH THE EVOLVING AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN. AMPLIFIED PATTERN
WILL FEATURE A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED SECONDARY/REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED
ALONG THE FRONT (PWATS ~1.5 INCHES)...BUT HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING
WINDS ALOFT (JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH) WILL
PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE REGION. SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED POPS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE NRN
LOCAL AREA. THE BIGGER HEADLINE WITH THE FRONT WILL BE THE DRY AIR
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION POST FRONTAL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE W-NW. MON WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE COOLEST/DRIEST
AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT. REINFORCING SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE GREAT
LAKES-NE STATES TUES AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES OFF THE ERN
SEABOARD. MEANWHILE...MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROGRESS EWD OVER THE
CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO THE ERN CONUS TUES- WEDS. COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE PROGGED TO BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDS. UPPER/SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THURS. THE RESULT WILL BE
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

HIGHS WILL BE BELOW AVG THRU THE PERIOD...WITH TUES AND WEDS BEING
THE COLDEST DAYS AT NEARLY -1 STD DEV (LOW-MID 70S). WENT A LITTLE
ABOVE WPC GUIDANCE AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S
INLAND TO LOW 60S NEAR THE COAST. FEW LOCALES IN THE PIEDMONT MAY
DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 05Z...VFR SHOULD HOLD FOR THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. BKN-OVC CLOUDS
WITH BASES FROM 5 TO 8 KFT WERE OVER MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE
FAR SE. ISOLD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACRS WESTERN SECTIONS...PERHAPS
IMPACTING KRIC. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THOUGH A WEAK COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT TO EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NELY FLOW EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND.
GRADIENT DOES STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS
REACHING 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. E-NE FLOW WILL HELP TO
BUILD SEAS THROUGH THE DAY...REACHING 4-5 FEET ON THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SCA HEADLINES GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE FAR
SOUTHERN WATERS AT 7 PM THIS EVENING...AND 1 AM SAT FOR THE
REMAINING COASTAL ZONES. IF WINDS END UP STRONGER THAN FORECAST...
6-7 FT SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE OUT AROUND 20 NM. 4 FT WAVES WOULD ALSO
POSSIBLE AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY PUSH OFF THE NE COAST SAT AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY OFF THE SE COAST. THE LOW
WILL LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY THRU THE WEEKEND...LOCATING OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOMETIME LATE THIS WEEKEND. SCA CONDITIONS FOR
WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM BASED ON THE GRADIENT WIND
FORECAST. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED (4-5 FT) THRU
SAT...BEFORE SUBSIDING ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH WINDS
TURNING OFFSHORE.

SFC LOW LIFTS NE OFF THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH A COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT-MON MORNING. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY
BUILD TO 5 FT AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. NW WINDS 10-15 KT ON MONDAY WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME N-NE ON TUESDAY. SEAS 2-4 FT. WAVES 1-2 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LATEST DROUGHT INFO SHOWING AN AREA OF ABNORMALLY DRY CNDTNS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF VA. THIS INCLUDES AREAS N OF I 64 & RT 360 (INCLUDING
THE RIC METRO AREA) IN AKQ FA. OTHER THAN SCT CONVECTION WITH THE
FRNT SUN EVE...XTNDD MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF RELIEF
FOR THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM
HYDROLOGY...






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190809
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
409 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS
THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CLEAR THE SOUTH THIS MORNING. BROAD SURFACE
HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND TODAY. UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE AS RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.
SOMEWHAT INTERESTING SCENARIO SETS UP THIS AFTERNOON AS FLOW AT
850 BACKS TOWARD THE SOUTH AND INCREASES. AT THE SAME TIME...FLOW
NEAR THE SURFACE REMAINS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. LATEST NAM IS
SHOWING MOISTURE INCREASING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THEN DRIVING
NORTHWARD IN THE STRENGTHENING FLOW AT 850. WOULD EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVER AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS KEEP THE MOISTURE TRAPPED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE MOISTURE MIXES OUT
ALLOWING FOR A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD HINDER WIDESPREAD SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
SO WILL LEAVE POP IN THE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE.

FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON GETTING A PUSH FROM A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL SWING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO MOISTURE POOLING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. IN
ADDITION...THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL INCLUDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MODELS MAY BE OVERPLAYING THEIR HANDS A BIT ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH
CURRENT DATA...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT STRONGER CONVECTION
COULD DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL EXIT REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL DRY AND COOL PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WITH BLDG HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO BE BLEMISHED ONLY BY SOME
PERIDAWN FOG. SFC WIND WL RMN LGT...BUT IS PROJECTED TO BECOME
E OR SE FRIDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
GENL RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH A SUNDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190809
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
409 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS
THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CLEAR THE SOUTH THIS MORNING. BROAD SURFACE
HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND TODAY. UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE AS RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.
SOMEWHAT INTERESTING SCENARIO SETS UP THIS AFTERNOON AS FLOW AT
850 BACKS TOWARD THE SOUTH AND INCREASES. AT THE SAME TIME...FLOW
NEAR THE SURFACE REMAINS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. LATEST NAM IS
SHOWING MOISTURE INCREASING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THEN DRIVING
NORTHWARD IN THE STRENGTHENING FLOW AT 850. WOULD EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVER AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS KEEP THE MOISTURE TRAPPED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE MOISTURE MIXES OUT
ALLOWING FOR A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD HINDER WIDESPREAD SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
SO WILL LEAVE POP IN THE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE.

FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON GETTING A PUSH FROM A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL SWING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO MOISTURE POOLING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. IN
ADDITION...THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL INCLUDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MODELS MAY BE OVERPLAYING THEIR HANDS A BIT ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH
CURRENT DATA...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT STRONGER CONVECTION
COULD DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL EXIT REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL DRY AND COOL PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WITH BLDG HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO BE BLEMISHED ONLY BY SOME
PERIDAWN FOG. SFC WIND WL RMN LGT...BUT IS PROJECTED TO BECOME
E OR SE FRIDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
GENL RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH A SUNDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190809
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
409 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS
THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CLEAR THE SOUTH THIS MORNING. BROAD SURFACE
HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND TODAY. UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE AS RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.
SOMEWHAT INTERESTING SCENARIO SETS UP THIS AFTERNOON AS FLOW AT
850 BACKS TOWARD THE SOUTH AND INCREASES. AT THE SAME TIME...FLOW
NEAR THE SURFACE REMAINS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. LATEST NAM IS
SHOWING MOISTURE INCREASING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THEN DRIVING
NORTHWARD IN THE STRENGTHENING FLOW AT 850. WOULD EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVER AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS KEEP THE MOISTURE TRAPPED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE MOISTURE MIXES OUT
ALLOWING FOR A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD HINDER WIDESPREAD SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
SO WILL LEAVE POP IN THE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE.

FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON GETTING A PUSH FROM A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL SWING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO MOISTURE POOLING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. IN
ADDITION...THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL INCLUDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MODELS MAY BE OVERPLAYING THEIR HANDS A BIT ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH
CURRENT DATA...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT STRONGER CONVECTION
COULD DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL EXIT REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL DRY AND COOL PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WITH BLDG HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO BE BLEMISHED ONLY BY SOME
PERIDAWN FOG. SFC WIND WL RMN LGT...BUT IS PROJECTED TO BECOME
E OR SE FRIDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
GENL RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH A SUNDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190809
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
409 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS
THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CLEAR THE SOUTH THIS MORNING. BROAD SURFACE
HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND TODAY. UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE AS RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.
SOMEWHAT INTERESTING SCENARIO SETS UP THIS AFTERNOON AS FLOW AT
850 BACKS TOWARD THE SOUTH AND INCREASES. AT THE SAME TIME...FLOW
NEAR THE SURFACE REMAINS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. LATEST NAM IS
SHOWING MOISTURE INCREASING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THEN DRIVING
NORTHWARD IN THE STRENGTHENING FLOW AT 850. WOULD EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVER AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS KEEP THE MOISTURE TRAPPED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE MOISTURE MIXES OUT
ALLOWING FOR A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD HINDER WIDESPREAD SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
SO WILL LEAVE POP IN THE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE.

FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON GETTING A PUSH FROM A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL SWING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO MOISTURE POOLING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. IN
ADDITION...THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL INCLUDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MODELS MAY BE OVERPLAYING THEIR HANDS A BIT ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH
CURRENT DATA...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT STRONGER CONVECTION
COULD DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL EXIT REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL DRY AND COOL PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WITH BLDG HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO BE BLEMISHED ONLY BY SOME
PERIDAWN FOG. SFC WIND WL RMN LGT...BUT IS PROJECTED TO BECOME
E OR SE FRIDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
GENL RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH A SUNDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPHI 190808
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
408 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY AND
THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
MONDAY AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WINDS ARE WEAK EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT IT APPEARS THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT HAS MADE IT ACROSS MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF OUR PORTION OF THE
DELMARVA.

AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT, NOW
CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND PUSH OFF THE NORTHEAST
U.S. COAST. THIS SHIFT WILL HELP PRODUCE AND ONSHORE FLOW AND
BEGIN TO BRING IN ATLANTIC LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 60 ACROSS THE POCONOS TO
THE MID 70S ACROSS DELMARVA.

NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME EAST BY DAYS END. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AS
WELL THIS MORNING.

THERE IS NO PRECIPITATION MENTIONED FOR TODAY. IN GENERAL, A LOWER
CONFIDENCE SKY FORECAST. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL BE A
GOOD AMOUNT SUNSHINE BEFORE THE ONSHORE FLOW HELPS PRODUCE THE
CLOUDS. IF THERE ARE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN TODAY, THE MODELS ARE
KEYING ON THE POCONOS, LEHIGH VALLEY, AND NORTHWEST NJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS AND ENDS WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW. MODELS, INCLUDING
STAT GUIDANCE, HAVE CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT. THIS LOOKS
REASONABLE. IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, SOME
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR UPSLOPE ZONES WEST OF THE DELAWARE
VALLEY AND LOCALES ALONG THE COAST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS OUT NORTHWEST
ZONES AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATURDAY...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY DRY DAY ACROSS THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH, THERE
IS NOT AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AROUND AND IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE WE
WILL SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.

RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP TO BRING IN
SOME MOISTER AND WARMER AIR. MAX TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL DROP INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH TOWARDS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THE FRONTS PROGRESS APPEARS TO BE ON THE SLOW SIDE
AND IT LIKELY WONT REACH THE REGION UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY AND WON`T
FULLY MOVE OFFSHORE UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WE
HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THE INSTABILITY ISN`T TERRIBLY STRONG BUT IT IS
AVAILABLE AND WE CAN`T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OR TWO ACROSS THE REGION.
BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK ACROSS OUR AREA AS MAX
TEMPS REACH INTO THE 80S. BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 50S. WHERE SKIES START TO
CLEAR A BIT MORE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS, WE COULD
SEE TEMPS DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S.

MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND WE
SHOULD SEE SOME DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVING IN ON THE NORTHWEST
FLOW. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CLEAR QUICKLY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
AROUND 8-12 DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE REGION. MOST AREAS WILL SEE
MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FEEL
CONSIDERABLY COLDER, WITH MOST PLACE DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 40S,
WITH SOME 50S POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST.

TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST ON TUESDAY. THE HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION AND SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER PRETTY DRY WITH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND MAY SPARK OFF A FEW SHOWERS. FOR
NOW, WE HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AS THE SOUNDINGS LOOK PRETTY
DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS. NORTH WINDS TO START THE DAY, EAST WINDS TO
FINISH. SHOULD SEE THE GRADIENT TIGHTEN A BIT AND SOME WINDS IN THE
10 TO 15 KT RANGE.

TONIGHT...WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW, LOWERING AND THICKENING CLOUDS CAN
BE EXPECTED. FOR NOW WE`LL DROP THINGS DOWN TO MVFR, 1500-2500 FT.
SOME DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS KABE, KRDG, KACY, AND
KMIV. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST, BUT LIGHTEN UP A BIT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWER CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EARLY...THEN
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY. LOWER VISIBILITIES
AND CEILINGS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON MONDAY...LESS WINDY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BOTH BUOY 44065 AND 44025 ARE FINALLY BACK!

TODAY...MADE SOME CHANGES TO TODAY`S NORTHERN WATER GRIDS AND ADDED
SCA HEADLINES. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS END UP IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE.
THIS WILL HELP BUILD 5 FOOT SEAS. FURTHER SOUTH WE`LL HOLD OFF ANY
SCA HEADLINES.

TONIGHT...ALSO MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE GRIDS. WE`VE BACKED OFF OF
HEADLINES AND HAVE DELAYED THE SCA FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS. ACROSS
THE NORTHERN WATERS, WE`LL HAVE THE SCA RUN THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. LOOKS
LIKE A LOWER END SCA WITH WINDS TOPPING OUT AROUND 20 KT AND SEAS 5
FT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...SEAS LOOK TO BE ELEVATED HEADING THROUGH
THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND WILL GRADUALLY START TO SUBSIDE INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME. IT MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOR A PERIOD UNTIL SEAS FALL BELOW
5 FEET. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE WATERS.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN ADDITION, WINDS AND WAVES WILL
START TO INCREASE AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

TUESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
WITH LONG PERIOD SWELLS STILL PRESENT TODAY, A TIGHTENING GRADIENT
AND INCREASING WAVE HEIGHTS, IN HOUSE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
A MODERATE RISK TODAY FOR NJ AND DE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ450-451.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...KRUZDLO
SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...KRUZDLO/MEOLA
MARINE...KRUZDLO/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...KRUZDLO








000
FXUS61 KPHI 190808
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
408 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY AND
THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
MONDAY AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WINDS ARE WEAK EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT IT APPEARS THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT HAS MADE IT ACROSS MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF OUR PORTION OF THE
DELMARVA.

AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT, NOW
CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND PUSH OFF THE NORTHEAST
U.S. COAST. THIS SHIFT WILL HELP PRODUCE AND ONSHORE FLOW AND
BEGIN TO BRING IN ATLANTIC LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 60 ACROSS THE POCONOS TO
THE MID 70S ACROSS DELMARVA.

NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME EAST BY DAYS END. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AS
WELL THIS MORNING.

THERE IS NO PRECIPITATION MENTIONED FOR TODAY. IN GENERAL, A LOWER
CONFIDENCE SKY FORECAST. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL BE A
GOOD AMOUNT SUNSHINE BEFORE THE ONSHORE FLOW HELPS PRODUCE THE
CLOUDS. IF THERE ARE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN TODAY, THE MODELS ARE
KEYING ON THE POCONOS, LEHIGH VALLEY, AND NORTHWEST NJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS AND ENDS WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW. MODELS, INCLUDING
STAT GUIDANCE, HAVE CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT. THIS LOOKS
REASONABLE. IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, SOME
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR UPSLOPE ZONES WEST OF THE DELAWARE
VALLEY AND LOCALES ALONG THE COAST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS OUT NORTHWEST
ZONES AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATURDAY...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY DRY DAY ACROSS THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH, THERE
IS NOT AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AROUND AND IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE WE
WILL SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.

RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP TO BRING IN
SOME MOISTER AND WARMER AIR. MAX TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL DROP INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH TOWARDS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THE FRONTS PROGRESS APPEARS TO BE ON THE SLOW SIDE
AND IT LIKELY WONT REACH THE REGION UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY AND WON`T
FULLY MOVE OFFSHORE UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WE
HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THE INSTABILITY ISN`T TERRIBLY STRONG BUT IT IS
AVAILABLE AND WE CAN`T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OR TWO ACROSS THE REGION.
BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK ACROSS OUR AREA AS MAX
TEMPS REACH INTO THE 80S. BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 50S. WHERE SKIES START TO
CLEAR A BIT MORE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS, WE COULD
SEE TEMPS DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S.

MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND WE
SHOULD SEE SOME DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVING IN ON THE NORTHWEST
FLOW. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CLEAR QUICKLY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
AROUND 8-12 DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE REGION. MOST AREAS WILL SEE
MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FEEL
CONSIDERABLY COLDER, WITH MOST PLACE DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 40S,
WITH SOME 50S POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST.

TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST ON TUESDAY. THE HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION AND SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER PRETTY DRY WITH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND MAY SPARK OFF A FEW SHOWERS. FOR
NOW, WE HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AS THE SOUNDINGS LOOK PRETTY
DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS. NORTH WINDS TO START THE DAY, EAST WINDS TO
FINISH. SHOULD SEE THE GRADIENT TIGHTEN A BIT AND SOME WINDS IN THE
10 TO 15 KT RANGE.

TONIGHT...WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW, LOWERING AND THICKENING CLOUDS CAN
BE EXPECTED. FOR NOW WE`LL DROP THINGS DOWN TO MVFR, 1500-2500 FT.
SOME DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS KABE, KRDG, KACY, AND
KMIV. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST, BUT LIGHTEN UP A BIT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWER CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EARLY...THEN
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY. LOWER VISIBILITIES
AND CEILINGS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON MONDAY...LESS WINDY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BOTH BUOY 44065 AND 44025 ARE FINALLY BACK!

TODAY...MADE SOME CHANGES TO TODAY`S NORTHERN WATER GRIDS AND ADDED
SCA HEADLINES. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS END UP IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE.
THIS WILL HELP BUILD 5 FOOT SEAS. FURTHER SOUTH WE`LL HOLD OFF ANY
SCA HEADLINES.

TONIGHT...ALSO MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE GRIDS. WE`VE BACKED OFF OF
HEADLINES AND HAVE DELAYED THE SCA FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS. ACROSS
THE NORTHERN WATERS, WE`LL HAVE THE SCA RUN THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. LOOKS
LIKE A LOWER END SCA WITH WINDS TOPPING OUT AROUND 20 KT AND SEAS 5
FT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...SEAS LOOK TO BE ELEVATED HEADING THROUGH
THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND WILL GRADUALLY START TO SUBSIDE INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME. IT MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOR A PERIOD UNTIL SEAS FALL BELOW
5 FEET. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE WATERS.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN ADDITION, WINDS AND WAVES WILL
START TO INCREASE AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

TUESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
WITH LONG PERIOD SWELLS STILL PRESENT TODAY, A TIGHTENING GRADIENT
AND INCREASING WAVE HEIGHTS, IN HOUSE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
A MODERATE RISK TODAY FOR NJ AND DE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ450-451.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...KRUZDLO
SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...KRUZDLO/MEOLA
MARINE...KRUZDLO/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...KRUZDLO







000
FXUS61 KLWX 190755
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
355 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS ONTARIO THIS MORNING. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL BEGIN TO WEDGE DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY.

MOISTURE IS TRAPPED BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND AGAINST THE
BLUE RIDGE/VA HIGHLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING. ISO-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT MAY BRUSH NELSON-
ALBEMARLE THIS MORNING. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED ACROSS
THE MOUTH OF THE POTOMAC AND CENTRAL PIEDMONT AND LIGHT NRLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE HAS LED TO CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA WITH DEWPTS IN THE UPPER 40S. NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEWPTS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S LEADING TO PATCHY
GROUND FOG. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE AREA. ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO
MOISTURE BANKING UP AGAINST THE RIDGE LINES ACROSS THE VA HIGHLANDS AND
CENTRAL BLUE RIDGE. ELSEWHERE...PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH FCST MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
OUT TO SEA BY EVENING. EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION. COVERAGE OF LOW STRATUS WILL INCREASE AND MOVE NORTHWARD
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS
OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN ITS HOLD ON THE MID-ATLANTIC
SATURDAY AS IT MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA. AS WITH MANY CAD
SETUPS...STRATUS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE REGION ALTHOUGH
WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY. SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
FCST MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING BETWEEN AN OFFSHORE TROPICAL LOW AND A STRONG
COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PRESENT WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
GROUND/RIVER FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...AND MAINTAINED MENTION FOR
FAVORED AREAS. WARM AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL
WINDS VEER AND H85 TEMPS CLIMB TO THE MID TEENS CELSIUS. THIS WARMER
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS
REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S. MODELS NOW SHOWING A RELATIVELY NARROW
AXIS OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AREAS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION OF THUNDER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. WILL ALSO SEE INCREASING DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS POTENT SHORT WAVE IN BASE OF LONG
WAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE TIMING OF
THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR REMAIN DISCONNECTED HOWEVER...BUT A
FEW ORGANIZED STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
INSTABILITY DROPS OFF RAPIDLY SUNDAY EVENING AS FRONT PROGRESSES
EASTWARD. HOWEVER SHEAR INCREASES SO GUSTY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. GOOD COLD AIR
ADVECTION LOOKS TO BEGIN A BIG EARLIER /NOW ON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/
AND CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AS UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
OVERHEAD. WILL SEE INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS AND MUCH COOLER/DRIER
AIR MONDAY. SHOULD ALSO SEE DOWNSLOPING TEMPERATURE EFFECT FOR AREAS
EAST OF THE RIDGES ON MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS COOL AND DRY AIRMASS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST FULL DAY OF ASTRONOMICAL FALL
-TUESDAY...AS WELL AS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT NRLY WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY TODAY AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL
ALLOW STRATUS TO BANK AGAINST THE BLUE RIDGE TODAY. MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED AT CHO THROUGH TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...VFR SCT- BKN CIGS
ARE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND MVFR CIGS WILL EXPAND TONIGHT REACHING MRB
AND POSSIBLY IAD BY SATURDAY MORNING. CIGS MAY BECOME IFR AT CHO
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH BY SATURDAY MORNING
AND CIGS WILL BECOME VFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SATURDAY.

A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE LATE. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS IT CROSSES THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MONDAY. COOL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND AN EXITING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE BAY AND LOWER
TIDAL POTOMAC AND A SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE ZONES. E-SE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME GUSTS MAY APPROACH SCA AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON BUT DUE TO THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
WATERS KEPT THEM BELOW AT THIS TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WINDS VEER SOUTH. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE WATERS SUNDAY EVENING...BRINGING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY MONDAY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...AND A SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES HAVE DROPPED BELOW A FOOT THIS MORNING AND COASTAL
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

AN ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...CAUSING
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ530>534-537-
     539>541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...AEB
LONG TERM...AEB
AVIATION...HAS/AEB
MARINE...HAS/AEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HAS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 190755
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
355 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS ONTARIO THIS MORNING. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL BEGIN TO WEDGE DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY.

MOISTURE IS TRAPPED BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND AGAINST THE
BLUE RIDGE/VA HIGHLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING. ISO-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT MAY BRUSH NELSON-
ALBEMARLE THIS MORNING. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED ACROSS
THE MOUTH OF THE POTOMAC AND CENTRAL PIEDMONT AND LIGHT NRLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE HAS LED TO CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA WITH DEWPTS IN THE UPPER 40S. NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEWPTS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S LEADING TO PATCHY
GROUND FOG. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE AREA. ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO
MOISTURE BANKING UP AGAINST THE RIDGE LINES ACROSS THE VA HIGHLANDS AND
CENTRAL BLUE RIDGE. ELSEWHERE...PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH FCST MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
OUT TO SEA BY EVENING. EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION. COVERAGE OF LOW STRATUS WILL INCREASE AND MOVE NORTHWARD
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS
OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN ITS HOLD ON THE MID-ATLANTIC
SATURDAY AS IT MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA. AS WITH MANY CAD
SETUPS...STRATUS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE REGION ALTHOUGH
WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY. SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
FCST MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING BETWEEN AN OFFSHORE TROPICAL LOW AND A STRONG
COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PRESENT WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
GROUND/RIVER FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...AND MAINTAINED MENTION FOR
FAVORED AREAS. WARM AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL
WINDS VEER AND H85 TEMPS CLIMB TO THE MID TEENS CELSIUS. THIS WARMER
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS
REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S. MODELS NOW SHOWING A RELATIVELY NARROW
AXIS OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AREAS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION OF THUNDER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. WILL ALSO SEE INCREASING DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS POTENT SHORT WAVE IN BASE OF LONG
WAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE TIMING OF
THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR REMAIN DISCONNECTED HOWEVER...BUT A
FEW ORGANIZED STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
INSTABILITY DROPS OFF RAPIDLY SUNDAY EVENING AS FRONT PROGRESSES
EASTWARD. HOWEVER SHEAR INCREASES SO GUSTY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. GOOD COLD AIR
ADVECTION LOOKS TO BEGIN A BIG EARLIER /NOW ON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/
AND CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AS UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
OVERHEAD. WILL SEE INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS AND MUCH COOLER/DRIER
AIR MONDAY. SHOULD ALSO SEE DOWNSLOPING TEMPERATURE EFFECT FOR AREAS
EAST OF THE RIDGES ON MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS COOL AND DRY AIRMASS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST FULL DAY OF ASTRONOMICAL FALL
-TUESDAY...AS WELL AS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT NRLY WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY TODAY AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL
ALLOW STRATUS TO BANK AGAINST THE BLUE RIDGE TODAY. MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED AT CHO THROUGH TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...VFR SCT- BKN CIGS
ARE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND MVFR CIGS WILL EXPAND TONIGHT REACHING MRB
AND POSSIBLY IAD BY SATURDAY MORNING. CIGS MAY BECOME IFR AT CHO
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH BY SATURDAY MORNING
AND CIGS WILL BECOME VFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SATURDAY.

A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE LATE. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS IT CROSSES THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MONDAY. COOL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND AN EXITING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE BAY AND LOWER
TIDAL POTOMAC AND A SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE ZONES. E-SE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME GUSTS MAY APPROACH SCA AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON BUT DUE TO THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
WATERS KEPT THEM BELOW AT THIS TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WINDS VEER SOUTH. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE WATERS SUNDAY EVENING...BRINGING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY MONDAY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...AND A SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES HAVE DROPPED BELOW A FOOT THIS MORNING AND COASTAL
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

AN ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...CAUSING
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ530>534-537-
     539>541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...AEB
LONG TERM...AEB
AVIATION...HAS/AEB
MARINE...HAS/AEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HAS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 190739
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
339 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS ONTARIO THIS MORNING. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL BEGIN TO WEDGE DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY.

MOISTURE IS TRAPPED BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND AGAINST THE
BLUE RIDGE/VA HIGHLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING. ISO-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT MAY BRUSH NELSON-
ALBEMARLE THIS MORNING. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED ACROSS
THE MOUTH OF THE POTOMAC AND CENTRAL PIEDMONT AND LIGHT NRLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE HAS LED TO CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA WITH DEWPTS IN THE UPPER 40S. NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEWPTS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S LEADING TO PATCHY
GROUND FOG. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE AREA. ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO
MOISTURE BANKING UP AGAINST THE RIDGE LINES ACROSS THE VA HIGHLANDS AND
CENTRAL BLUE RIDGE. ELSEWHERE...PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH FCST MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
OUT TO SEA BY EVENING. EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION. COVERAGE OF LOW STRATUS WILL INCREASE AND MOVE NORTHWARD
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS
OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN ITS HOLD ON THE MID-ATLANTIC
SATURDAY AS IT MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA. AS WITH MANY CAD
SETUPS...STRATUS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE REGION ALTHOUGH
WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY. SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
FCST MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING BETWEEN AN OFFSHORE TROPICAL LOW AND A STRONG
COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PRESENT WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
GROUND/RIVER FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...AND MAINTAINED MENTION FOR
FAVORED AREAS. WARM AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL
WINDS VEER AND H85 TEMPS CLIMB TO THE MID TEENS CELSIUS. THIS WARMER
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS
REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S. MODELS NOW SHOWING A RELATIVELY NARROW
AXIS OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AREAS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION OF THUNDER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. WILL ALSO SEE INCREASING DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS POTENT SHORT WAVE IN BASE OF LONG
WAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE TIMING OF
THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR REMAIN DISCONNECTED HOWEVER...BUT A
FEW ORGANIZED STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
INSTABILITY DROPS OFF RAPIDLY SUNDAY EVENING AS FRONT PROGRESSES
EASTWARD. HOWEVER SHEAR INCREASES SO GUSTY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. GOOD COLD AIR
ADVECTION LOOKS TO BEGIN A BIG EARLIER /NOW ON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/
AND CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AS UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
OVERHEAD. WILL SEE INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS AND MUCH COOLER/DRIER
AIR MONDAY. SHOULD ALSO SEE DOWNSLOPING TEMPERATURE EFFECT FOR AREAS
EAST OF THE RIDGES ON MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS COOL AND DRY AIRMASS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST FULL DAY OF ASTRONOMICAL FALL
-TUESDAY...AS WELL AS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT NRLY WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY TODAY AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL
ALLOW STRATUS TO BANK AGAINST THE BLUE RIDGE TODAY. MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED AT CHO THROUGH TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...VFR SCT- BKN CIGS
ARE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND MVFR CIGS WILL EXPAND TONIGHT REACHING MRB
AND POSSIBLY IAD BY SATURDAY MORNING. CIGS MAY BECOME IFR AT CHO
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH BY SATURDAY MORNING
AND CIGS WILL BECOME VFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SATURDAY.

INSTABILITY DROPS OFF RAPIDLY SUNDAY EVENING AS FRONT PROGRESSES
EASTWARD. HOWEVER SHEAR INCREASES SO GUSTY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. GOOD COLD AIR
ADVECTION LOOKS TO BEGIN A BIG EARLIER /NOW ON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/
AND CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AS UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
OVERHEAD. WILL SEE INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS AND MUCH COOLER/DRIER
AIR MONDAY. SHOULD ALSO SEE DOWNSLOPING TEMPERATURE EFFECT FOR AREAS
EAST OF THE RIDGES ON MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS COOL AND DRY AIRMASS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST FULL DAY OF ASTRONOMICAL FALL
-TUESDAY...AS WELL AS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND AN EXITING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE BAY AND LOWER
TIDAL POTOMAC AND A SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE ZONES. E-SE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME GUSTS MAY APPROACH SCA AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON BUT DUE TO THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
WATERS KEPT THEM BELOW AT THIS TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WINDS VEER SOUTH. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE WATERS SUNDAY EVENING...BRINGING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY MONDAY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...AND A SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES HAVE DROPPED BELOW A FOOT THIS MORNING AND COASTAL
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

AN ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...CAUSING
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ530>534-537-
     539>541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...AEB
LONG TERM...AEB
AVIATION...HAS/AEB
MARINE...HAS/AEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HAS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 190739
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
339 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS ONTARIO THIS MORNING. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL BEGIN TO WEDGE DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY.

MOISTURE IS TRAPPED BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND AGAINST THE
BLUE RIDGE/VA HIGHLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING. ISO-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT MAY BRUSH NELSON-
ALBEMARLE THIS MORNING. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED ACROSS
THE MOUTH OF THE POTOMAC AND CENTRAL PIEDMONT AND LIGHT NRLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE HAS LED TO CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA WITH DEWPTS IN THE UPPER 40S. NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEWPTS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S LEADING TO PATCHY
GROUND FOG. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE AREA. ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO
MOISTURE BANKING UP AGAINST THE RIDGE LINES ACROSS THE VA HIGHLANDS AND
CENTRAL BLUE RIDGE. ELSEWHERE...PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH FCST MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
OUT TO SEA BY EVENING. EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION. COVERAGE OF LOW STRATUS WILL INCREASE AND MOVE NORTHWARD
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS
OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN ITS HOLD ON THE MID-ATLANTIC
SATURDAY AS IT MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA. AS WITH MANY CAD
SETUPS...STRATUS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE REGION ALTHOUGH
WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY. SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
FCST MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING BETWEEN AN OFFSHORE TROPICAL LOW AND A STRONG
COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PRESENT WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
GROUND/RIVER FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...AND MAINTAINED MENTION FOR
FAVORED AREAS. WARM AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL
WINDS VEER AND H85 TEMPS CLIMB TO THE MID TEENS CELSIUS. THIS WARMER
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS
REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S. MODELS NOW SHOWING A RELATIVELY NARROW
AXIS OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AREAS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION OF THUNDER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. WILL ALSO SEE INCREASING DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS POTENT SHORT WAVE IN BASE OF LONG
WAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE TIMING OF
THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR REMAIN DISCONNECTED HOWEVER...BUT A
FEW ORGANIZED STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
INSTABILITY DROPS OFF RAPIDLY SUNDAY EVENING AS FRONT PROGRESSES
EASTWARD. HOWEVER SHEAR INCREASES SO GUSTY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. GOOD COLD AIR
ADVECTION LOOKS TO BEGIN A BIG EARLIER /NOW ON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/
AND CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AS UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
OVERHEAD. WILL SEE INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS AND MUCH COOLER/DRIER
AIR MONDAY. SHOULD ALSO SEE DOWNSLOPING TEMPERATURE EFFECT FOR AREAS
EAST OF THE RIDGES ON MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS COOL AND DRY AIRMASS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST FULL DAY OF ASTRONOMICAL FALL
-TUESDAY...AS WELL AS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT NRLY WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY TODAY AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL
ALLOW STRATUS TO BANK AGAINST THE BLUE RIDGE TODAY. MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED AT CHO THROUGH TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...VFR SCT- BKN CIGS
ARE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND MVFR CIGS WILL EXPAND TONIGHT REACHING MRB
AND POSSIBLY IAD BY SATURDAY MORNING. CIGS MAY BECOME IFR AT CHO
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH BY SATURDAY MORNING
AND CIGS WILL BECOME VFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SATURDAY.

INSTABILITY DROPS OFF RAPIDLY SUNDAY EVENING AS FRONT PROGRESSES
EASTWARD. HOWEVER SHEAR INCREASES SO GUSTY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. GOOD COLD AIR
ADVECTION LOOKS TO BEGIN A BIG EARLIER /NOW ON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/
AND CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AS UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
OVERHEAD. WILL SEE INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS AND MUCH COOLER/DRIER
AIR MONDAY. SHOULD ALSO SEE DOWNSLOPING TEMPERATURE EFFECT FOR AREAS
EAST OF THE RIDGES ON MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS COOL AND DRY AIRMASS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST FULL DAY OF ASTRONOMICAL FALL
-TUESDAY...AS WELL AS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND AN EXITING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE BAY AND LOWER
TIDAL POTOMAC AND A SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE ZONES. E-SE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME GUSTS MAY APPROACH SCA AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON BUT DUE TO THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
WATERS KEPT THEM BELOW AT THIS TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WINDS VEER SOUTH. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE WATERS SUNDAY EVENING...BRINGING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY MONDAY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...AND A SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES HAVE DROPPED BELOW A FOOT THIS MORNING AND COASTAL
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

AN ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...CAUSING
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ530>534-537-
     539>541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...AEB
LONG TERM...AEB
AVIATION...HAS/AEB
MARINE...HAS/AEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HAS








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 190734
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
334 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS WEST AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODA/...
LATEST MSAS INDCTG WEAK SFC TROF FROM SRN DELAWARE SW ACROSS THE
VA & NC PIEDMONTS. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW SCT SHWR ACTIVITY
ALONG THIS BNDRY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

MODELS AGREE IN SHIFTING THIS TROF WEST ACROSS THE MTS TODAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. TSCTNS SHOWING
ENUF MSTR AT DIFFERENT LEVELS FOR SCT-BKN CLOUDS ALONG WITH A NE
WIND FLOW. ANY TRIGGER FOR SCT SHWRS DRIFTS WEST THRU OUT THE DAY.
GIVEN THESE TRENDS...HELD ONTO THE 20 TO 30 POP ACROSS THE WRN HALF
OF FA ALTHOUGH CHCS DECREASE TO SLGHT CHC BY LATE AFTRN. OTW...VRBL
CLDNS WITH HIGHS IN THE M-U70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
VRBL CLDNS AGAIN TONIGHT BUT DRY AS SPRT FOR ANY SHWRS SHIFTS WEST.
SOME PTCHY FOG PSBL BUT WON`T INCLUDE IN GRIDS ATTM. LOWS IN THE
M50S-L60S.

NE FLOW CONTINUES ON SAT AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES FARTHER OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. TSCTNS SHOWING SOME DRYING AT MID LEVELS FOR MOST OF
THE DAY SO WILL KEEP A DRY FCST UNDER PT TO MSTLY SUNNY SKIES. H85
TMPS RISE TO BTWN 12-14C ALLOWING HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE U70S-M80S.

SFC LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO DVLP OFF THE SERN COAST SAT THEN TRACK
NE ALONG THE GULF STREAM SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING BEFORE LIFTING NE
AND AWAY FROM THE AREA SUN AFTRN. STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WRT
HOW FAR WEST MSTR FROM THIS SYSTM GETS. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT MORE CLOUDS OVR ERN HALF OF FA WITH SLGHT CHC POPS ALONG
THE COAST SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING. LOWS SAT NIGHT U50S-M60S.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM THE RGN SUN WHILE THE NXT COLD
FRNT APPRCHS FROM THE WEST. DATA SUPPORTS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS
SYSTM RESULTING IN SKIES BCMG PT TO MSTLY SUNNY BY THE AFTRN. H85
TMPS APPRCH SUMMER LEVELS (14-16C) ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH THE
M-U80S. A 90 DEGREE READING IS PSBL OVR THE PIEDMONT GIVEN HOW DRY
THE GROUND IS ATTM.

ADJUSTED SUN NIGHTS FCST A BIT GIVEN THE LATEST TRENDS OF MSTR ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DVLP ACROSS THE MTS LATE
SUN AFTRN THEN DRIFT SE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA WHILE WEAKENING
SUN EVENING. ADDED SLGHT CHC THUNDER GIVEN HOW WARM / MARGINAL INSTAB
PROGGED OUT AHEAD OF BNDRY. KEPT SERN HALF OF FA DRY FOR NOW. LOWS
IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE THE NE.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE ERN CONUS
WITH THE EVOLVING AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN. AMPLIFIED PATTERN
WILL FEATURE A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED SECONDARY/REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED
ALONG THE FRONT (PWATS ~1.5 INCHES)...BUT HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING
WINDS ALOFT (JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH) WILL
PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE REGION. SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED POPS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE NRN
LOCAL AREA. THE BIGGER HEADLINE WITH THE FRONT WILL BE THE DRY AIR
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION POST FRONTAL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE W-NW. MON WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE COOLEST/DRIEST
AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT. REINFORCING SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE GREAT
LAKES-NE STATES TUES AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES OFF THE ERN
SEABOARD. MEANWHILE...MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROGRESS EWD OVER THE
CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO THE ERN CONUS TUES- WEDS. COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE PROGGED TO BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDS. UPPER/SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THURS. THE RESULT WILL BE
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

HIGHS WILL BE BELOW AVG THRU THE PERIOD...WITH TUES AND WEDS BEING
THE COLDEST DAYS AT NEARLY -1 STD DEV (LOW-MID 70S). WENT A LITTLE
ABOVE WPC GUIDANCE AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S
INLAND TO LOW 60S NEAR THE COAST. FEW LOCALES IN THE PIEDMONT MAY
DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 05Z...VFR SHOULD HOLD FOR THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. BKN-OVC CLOUDS
WITH BASES FROM 5 TO 8 KFT WERE OVER MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE
FAR SE. ISOLD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACRS WESTERN SECTIONS...PERHAPS
IMPACTING KRIC. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THOUGH A WEAK COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT TO EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NELY FLOW EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND.
GRADIENT DOES STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS
REACHING 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. E-NE FLOW WILL HELP TO
BUILD SEAS THROUGH THE DAY...REACHING 4-5 FEET ON THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SCA HEADLINES GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE FAR
SOUTHERN WATERS AT 7 PM THIS EVENING...AND 1 AM SAT FOR THE
REMAINING COASTAL ZONES. IF WINDS END UP STRONGER THAN FORECAST...
6-7 FT SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE OUT AROUND 20 NM. 4 FT WAVES WOULD ALSO
POSSIBLE AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY PUSH OFF THE NE COAST SAT AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY OFF THE SE COAST. THE LOW
WILL LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY THRU THE WEEKEND...LOCATING OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOMETIME LATE THIS WEEKEND. SCA CONDITIONS FOR
WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM BASED ON THE GRADIENT WIND
FORECAST. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED (4-5 FT) THRU
SAT...BEFORE SUBSIDING ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH WINDS
TURNING OFFSHORE.

SFC LOW LIFTS NE OFF THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH A COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT-MON MORNING. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY
BUILD TO 5 FT AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. NW WINDS 10-15 KT ON MONDAY WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME N-NE ON TUESDAY. SEAS 2-4 FT. WAVES 1-2 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LATEST DROUGHT INFO SHOWING AN AREA OF ABNORMALLY DRY CNDTNS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF VA. THIS INCLUDES AREAS N OF I 64 & RT 360 (INCLUDING
THE RIC METRO AREA) IN AKQ FA. OTHER THAN SCT CONVECTION WITH THE
FRNT SUN EVE...XTNDD MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF RELIEF
FOR THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM
HYDROLOGY...MPR






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 190734
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
334 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS WEST AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODA/...
LATEST MSAS INDCTG WEAK SFC TROF FROM SRN DELAWARE SW ACROSS THE
VA & NC PIEDMONTS. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW SCT SHWR ACTIVITY
ALONG THIS BNDRY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

MODELS AGREE IN SHIFTING THIS TROF WEST ACROSS THE MTS TODAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. TSCTNS SHOWING
ENUF MSTR AT DIFFERENT LEVELS FOR SCT-BKN CLOUDS ALONG WITH A NE
WIND FLOW. ANY TRIGGER FOR SCT SHWRS DRIFTS WEST THRU OUT THE DAY.
GIVEN THESE TRENDS...HELD ONTO THE 20 TO 30 POP ACROSS THE WRN HALF
OF FA ALTHOUGH CHCS DECREASE TO SLGHT CHC BY LATE AFTRN. OTW...VRBL
CLDNS WITH HIGHS IN THE M-U70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
VRBL CLDNS AGAIN TONIGHT BUT DRY AS SPRT FOR ANY SHWRS SHIFTS WEST.
SOME PTCHY FOG PSBL BUT WON`T INCLUDE IN GRIDS ATTM. LOWS IN THE
M50S-L60S.

NE FLOW CONTINUES ON SAT AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES FARTHER OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. TSCTNS SHOWING SOME DRYING AT MID LEVELS FOR MOST OF
THE DAY SO WILL KEEP A DRY FCST UNDER PT TO MSTLY SUNNY SKIES. H85
TMPS RISE TO BTWN 12-14C ALLOWING HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE U70S-M80S.

SFC LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO DVLP OFF THE SERN COAST SAT THEN TRACK
NE ALONG THE GULF STREAM SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING BEFORE LIFTING NE
AND AWAY FROM THE AREA SUN AFTRN. STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WRT
HOW FAR WEST MSTR FROM THIS SYSTM GETS. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT MORE CLOUDS OVR ERN HALF OF FA WITH SLGHT CHC POPS ALONG
THE COAST SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING. LOWS SAT NIGHT U50S-M60S.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM THE RGN SUN WHILE THE NXT COLD
FRNT APPRCHS FROM THE WEST. DATA SUPPORTS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS
SYSTM RESULTING IN SKIES BCMG PT TO MSTLY SUNNY BY THE AFTRN. H85
TMPS APPRCH SUMMER LEVELS (14-16C) ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH THE
M-U80S. A 90 DEGREE READING IS PSBL OVR THE PIEDMONT GIVEN HOW DRY
THE GROUND IS ATTM.

ADJUSTED SUN NIGHTS FCST A BIT GIVEN THE LATEST TRENDS OF MSTR ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DVLP ACROSS THE MTS LATE
SUN AFTRN THEN DRIFT SE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA WHILE WEAKENING
SUN EVENING. ADDED SLGHT CHC THUNDER GIVEN HOW WARM / MARGINAL INSTAB
PROGGED OUT AHEAD OF BNDRY. KEPT SERN HALF OF FA DRY FOR NOW. LOWS
IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE THE NE.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE ERN CONUS
WITH THE EVOLVING AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN. AMPLIFIED PATTERN
WILL FEATURE A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED SECONDARY/REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED
ALONG THE FRONT (PWATS ~1.5 INCHES)...BUT HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING
WINDS ALOFT (JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH) WILL
PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE REGION. SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED POPS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE NRN
LOCAL AREA. THE BIGGER HEADLINE WITH THE FRONT WILL BE THE DRY AIR
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION POST FRONTAL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE W-NW. MON WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE COOLEST/DRIEST
AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT. REINFORCING SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE GREAT
LAKES-NE STATES TUES AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES OFF THE ERN
SEABOARD. MEANWHILE...MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROGRESS EWD OVER THE
CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO THE ERN CONUS TUES- WEDS. COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE PROGGED TO BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDS. UPPER/SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THURS. THE RESULT WILL BE
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

HIGHS WILL BE BELOW AVG THRU THE PERIOD...WITH TUES AND WEDS BEING
THE COLDEST DAYS AT NEARLY -1 STD DEV (LOW-MID 70S). WENT A LITTLE
ABOVE WPC GUIDANCE AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S
INLAND TO LOW 60S NEAR THE COAST. FEW LOCALES IN THE PIEDMONT MAY
DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 05Z...VFR SHOULD HOLD FOR THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. BKN-OVC CLOUDS
WITH BASES FROM 5 TO 8 KFT WERE OVER MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE
FAR SE. ISOLD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACRS WESTERN SECTIONS...PERHAPS
IMPACTING KRIC. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THOUGH A WEAK COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT TO EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NELY FLOW EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND.
GRADIENT DOES STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS
REACHING 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. E-NE FLOW WILL HELP TO
BUILD SEAS THROUGH THE DAY...REACHING 4-5 FEET ON THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SCA HEADLINES GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE FAR
SOUTHERN WATERS AT 7 PM THIS EVENING...AND 1 AM SAT FOR THE
REMAINING COASTAL ZONES. IF WINDS END UP STRONGER THAN FORECAST...
6-7 FT SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE OUT AROUND 20 NM. 4 FT WAVES WOULD ALSO
POSSIBLE AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY PUSH OFF THE NE COAST SAT AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY OFF THE SE COAST. THE LOW
WILL LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY THRU THE WEEKEND...LOCATING OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOMETIME LATE THIS WEEKEND. SCA CONDITIONS FOR
WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM BASED ON THE GRADIENT WIND
FORECAST. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED (4-5 FT) THRU
SAT...BEFORE SUBSIDING ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH WINDS
TURNING OFFSHORE.

SFC LOW LIFTS NE OFF THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH A COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT-MON MORNING. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY
BUILD TO 5 FT AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. NW WINDS 10-15 KT ON MONDAY WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME N-NE ON TUESDAY. SEAS 2-4 FT. WAVES 1-2 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LATEST DROUGHT INFO SHOWING AN AREA OF ABNORMALLY DRY CNDTNS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF VA. THIS INCLUDES AREAS N OF I 64 & RT 360 (INCLUDING
THE RIC METRO AREA) IN AKQ FA. OTHER THAN SCT CONVECTION WITH THE
FRNT SUN EVE...XTNDD MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF RELIEF
FOR THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM
HYDROLOGY...MPR






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 190734
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
334 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS WEST AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODA/...
LATEST MSAS INDCTG WEAK SFC TROF FROM SRN DELAWARE SW ACROSS THE
VA & NC PIEDMONTS. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW SCT SHWR ACTIVITY
ALONG THIS BNDRY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

MODELS AGREE IN SHIFTING THIS TROF WEST ACROSS THE MTS TODAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. TSCTNS SHOWING
ENUF MSTR AT DIFFERENT LEVELS FOR SCT-BKN CLOUDS ALONG WITH A NE
WIND FLOW. ANY TRIGGER FOR SCT SHWRS DRIFTS WEST THRU OUT THE DAY.
GIVEN THESE TRENDS...HELD ONTO THE 20 TO 30 POP ACROSS THE WRN HALF
OF FA ALTHOUGH CHCS DECREASE TO SLGHT CHC BY LATE AFTRN. OTW...VRBL
CLDNS WITH HIGHS IN THE M-U70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
VRBL CLDNS AGAIN TONIGHT BUT DRY AS SPRT FOR ANY SHWRS SHIFTS WEST.
SOME PTCHY FOG PSBL BUT WON`T INCLUDE IN GRIDS ATTM. LOWS IN THE
M50S-L60S.

NE FLOW CONTINUES ON SAT AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES FARTHER OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. TSCTNS SHOWING SOME DRYING AT MID LEVELS FOR MOST OF
THE DAY SO WILL KEEP A DRY FCST UNDER PT TO MSTLY SUNNY SKIES. H85
TMPS RISE TO BTWN 12-14C ALLOWING HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE U70S-M80S.

SFC LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO DVLP OFF THE SERN COAST SAT THEN TRACK
NE ALONG THE GULF STREAM SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING BEFORE LIFTING NE
AND AWAY FROM THE AREA SUN AFTRN. STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WRT
HOW FAR WEST MSTR FROM THIS SYSTM GETS. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT MORE CLOUDS OVR ERN HALF OF FA WITH SLGHT CHC POPS ALONG
THE COAST SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING. LOWS SAT NIGHT U50S-M60S.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM THE RGN SUN WHILE THE NXT COLD
FRNT APPRCHS FROM THE WEST. DATA SUPPORTS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS
SYSTM RESULTING IN SKIES BCMG PT TO MSTLY SUNNY BY THE AFTRN. H85
TMPS APPRCH SUMMER LEVELS (14-16C) ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH THE
M-U80S. A 90 DEGREE READING IS PSBL OVR THE PIEDMONT GIVEN HOW DRY
THE GROUND IS ATTM.

ADJUSTED SUN NIGHTS FCST A BIT GIVEN THE LATEST TRENDS OF MSTR ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DVLP ACROSS THE MTS LATE
SUN AFTRN THEN DRIFT SE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA WHILE WEAKENING
SUN EVENING. ADDED SLGHT CHC THUNDER GIVEN HOW WARM / MARGINAL INSTAB
PROGGED OUT AHEAD OF BNDRY. KEPT SERN HALF OF FA DRY FOR NOW. LOWS
IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE THE NE.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE ERN CONUS
WITH THE EVOLVING AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN. AMPLIFIED PATTERN
WILL FEATURE A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED SECONDARY/REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED
ALONG THE FRONT (PWATS ~1.5 INCHES)...BUT HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING
WINDS ALOFT (JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH) WILL
PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE REGION. SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED POPS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE NRN
LOCAL AREA. THE BIGGER HEADLINE WITH THE FRONT WILL BE THE DRY AIR
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION POST FRONTAL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE W-NW. MON WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE COOLEST/DRIEST
AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT. REINFORCING SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE GREAT
LAKES-NE STATES TUES AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES OFF THE ERN
SEABOARD. MEANWHILE...MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROGRESS EWD OVER THE
CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO THE ERN CONUS TUES- WEDS. COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE PROGGED TO BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDS. UPPER/SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THURS. THE RESULT WILL BE
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

HIGHS WILL BE BELOW AVG THRU THE PERIOD...WITH TUES AND WEDS BEING
THE COLDEST DAYS AT NEARLY -1 STD DEV (LOW-MID 70S). WENT A LITTLE
ABOVE WPC GUIDANCE AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S
INLAND TO LOW 60S NEAR THE COAST. FEW LOCALES IN THE PIEDMONT MAY
DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 05Z...VFR SHOULD HOLD FOR THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. BKN-OVC CLOUDS
WITH BASES FROM 5 TO 8 KFT WERE OVER MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE
FAR SE. ISOLD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACRS WESTERN SECTIONS...PERHAPS
IMPACTING KRIC. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THOUGH A WEAK COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT TO EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NELY FLOW EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND.
GRADIENT DOES STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS
REACHING 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. E-NE FLOW WILL HELP TO
BUILD SEAS THROUGH THE DAY...REACHING 4-5 FEET ON THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SCA HEADLINES GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE FAR
SOUTHERN WATERS AT 7 PM THIS EVENING...AND 1 AM SAT FOR THE
REMAINING COASTAL ZONES. IF WINDS END UP STRONGER THAN FORECAST...
6-7 FT SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE OUT AROUND 20 NM. 4 FT WAVES WOULD ALSO
POSSIBLE AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY PUSH OFF THE NE COAST SAT AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY OFF THE SE COAST. THE LOW
WILL LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY THRU THE WEEKEND...LOCATING OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOMETIME LATE THIS WEEKEND. SCA CONDITIONS FOR
WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM BASED ON THE GRADIENT WIND
FORECAST. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED (4-5 FT) THRU
SAT...BEFORE SUBSIDING ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH WINDS
TURNING OFFSHORE.

SFC LOW LIFTS NE OFF THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH A COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT-MON MORNING. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY
BUILD TO 5 FT AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. NW WINDS 10-15 KT ON MONDAY WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME N-NE ON TUESDAY. SEAS 2-4 FT. WAVES 1-2 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LATEST DROUGHT INFO SHOWING AN AREA OF ABNORMALLY DRY CNDTNS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF VA. THIS INCLUDES AREAS N OF I 64 & RT 360 (INCLUDING
THE RIC METRO AREA) IN AKQ FA. OTHER THAN SCT CONVECTION WITH THE
FRNT SUN EVE...XTNDD MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF RELIEF
FOR THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM
HYDROLOGY...MPR






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 190734
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
334 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS WEST AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODA/...
LATEST MSAS INDCTG WEAK SFC TROF FROM SRN DELAWARE SW ACROSS THE
VA & NC PIEDMONTS. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW SCT SHWR ACTIVITY
ALONG THIS BNDRY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

MODELS AGREE IN SHIFTING THIS TROF WEST ACROSS THE MTS TODAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. TSCTNS SHOWING
ENUF MSTR AT DIFFERENT LEVELS FOR SCT-BKN CLOUDS ALONG WITH A NE
WIND FLOW. ANY TRIGGER FOR SCT SHWRS DRIFTS WEST THRU OUT THE DAY.
GIVEN THESE TRENDS...HELD ONTO THE 20 TO 30 POP ACROSS THE WRN HALF
OF FA ALTHOUGH CHCS DECREASE TO SLGHT CHC BY LATE AFTRN. OTW...VRBL
CLDNS WITH HIGHS IN THE M-U70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
VRBL CLDNS AGAIN TONIGHT BUT DRY AS SPRT FOR ANY SHWRS SHIFTS WEST.
SOME PTCHY FOG PSBL BUT WON`T INCLUDE IN GRIDS ATTM. LOWS IN THE
M50S-L60S.

NE FLOW CONTINUES ON SAT AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES FARTHER OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. TSCTNS SHOWING SOME DRYING AT MID LEVELS FOR MOST OF
THE DAY SO WILL KEEP A DRY FCST UNDER PT TO MSTLY SUNNY SKIES. H85
TMPS RISE TO BTWN 12-14C ALLOWING HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE U70S-M80S.

SFC LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO DVLP OFF THE SERN COAST SAT THEN TRACK
NE ALONG THE GULF STREAM SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING BEFORE LIFTING NE
AND AWAY FROM THE AREA SUN AFTRN. STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WRT
HOW FAR WEST MSTR FROM THIS SYSTM GETS. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT MORE CLOUDS OVR ERN HALF OF FA WITH SLGHT CHC POPS ALONG
THE COAST SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING. LOWS SAT NIGHT U50S-M60S.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM THE RGN SUN WHILE THE NXT COLD
FRNT APPRCHS FROM THE WEST. DATA SUPPORTS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS
SYSTM RESULTING IN SKIES BCMG PT TO MSTLY SUNNY BY THE AFTRN. H85
TMPS APPRCH SUMMER LEVELS (14-16C) ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH THE
M-U80S. A 90 DEGREE READING IS PSBL OVR THE PIEDMONT GIVEN HOW DRY
THE GROUND IS ATTM.

ADJUSTED SUN NIGHTS FCST A BIT GIVEN THE LATEST TRENDS OF MSTR ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DVLP ACROSS THE MTS LATE
SUN AFTRN THEN DRIFT SE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA WHILE WEAKENING
SUN EVENING. ADDED SLGHT CHC THUNDER GIVEN HOW WARM / MARGINAL INSTAB
PROGGED OUT AHEAD OF BNDRY. KEPT SERN HALF OF FA DRY FOR NOW. LOWS
IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE THE NE.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE ERN CONUS
WITH THE EVOLVING AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN. AMPLIFIED PATTERN
WILL FEATURE A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED SECONDARY/REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED
ALONG THE FRONT (PWATS ~1.5 INCHES)...BUT HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING
WINDS ALOFT (JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH) WILL
PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE REGION. SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED POPS...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE NRN
LOCAL AREA. THE BIGGER HEADLINE WITH THE FRONT WILL BE THE DRY AIR
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION POST FRONTAL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE W-NW. MON WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE COOLEST/DRIEST
AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT. REINFORCING SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE GREAT
LAKES-NE STATES TUES AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES OFF THE ERN
SEABOARD. MEANWHILE...MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROGRESS EWD OVER THE
CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO THE ERN CONUS TUES- WEDS. COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE PROGGED TO BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDS. UPPER/SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THURS. THE RESULT WILL BE
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

HIGHS WILL BE BELOW AVG THRU THE PERIOD...WITH TUES AND WEDS BEING
THE COLDEST DAYS AT NEARLY -1 STD DEV (LOW-MID 70S). WENT A LITTLE
ABOVE WPC GUIDANCE AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S
INLAND TO LOW 60S NEAR THE COAST. FEW LOCALES IN THE PIEDMONT MAY
DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 05Z...VFR SHOULD HOLD FOR THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. BKN-OVC CLOUDS
WITH BASES FROM 5 TO 8 KFT WERE OVER MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE
FAR SE. ISOLD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACRS WESTERN SECTIONS...PERHAPS
IMPACTING KRIC. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THOUGH A WEAK COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT TO EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NELY FLOW EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND.
GRADIENT DOES STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS
REACHING 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. E-NE FLOW WILL HELP TO
BUILD SEAS THROUGH THE DAY...REACHING 4-5 FEET ON THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SCA HEADLINES GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE FAR
SOUTHERN WATERS AT 7 PM THIS EVENING...AND 1 AM SAT FOR THE
REMAINING COASTAL ZONES. IF WINDS END UP STRONGER THAN FORECAST...
6-7 FT SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE OUT AROUND 20 NM. 4 FT WAVES WOULD ALSO
POSSIBLE AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY PUSH OFF THE NE COAST SAT AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY OFF THE SE COAST. THE LOW
WILL LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY THRU THE WEEKEND...LOCATING OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOMETIME LATE THIS WEEKEND. SCA CONDITIONS FOR
WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM BASED ON THE GRADIENT WIND
FORECAST. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED (4-5 FT) THRU
SAT...BEFORE SUBSIDING ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH WINDS
TURNING OFFSHORE.

SFC LOW LIFTS NE OFF THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH A COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT-MON MORNING. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY
BUILD TO 5 FT AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. NW WINDS 10-15 KT ON MONDAY WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME N-NE ON TUESDAY. SEAS 2-4 FT. WAVES 1-2 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LATEST DROUGHT INFO SHOWING AN AREA OF ABNORMALLY DRY CNDTNS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF VA. THIS INCLUDES AREAS N OF I 64 & RT 360 (INCLUDING
THE RIC METRO AREA) IN AKQ FA. OTHER THAN SCT CONVECTION WITH THE
FRNT SUN EVE...XTNDD MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF RELIEF
FOR THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM
HYDROLOGY...MPR






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 190521
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
121 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND FROM FRIDAY
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WK SFC CDFNT SETTLES THROUGH THE FA THIS EVE...THEN IS S OF THE
RGN BY AFT MDNGT AS MID LVL S/W EXITS OFF THE CST. ONGOING ISOLD
SHRAS INVOF THE MD EASTERN SHORE (DORCHESTER COUNTY) AND FARMVILLE
IN THE EASTERN PIEDMONT ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT S-SW THE REMAINDER
OF THIS EVENING. RADAR RETURNS ARE VERY LIGHT AND ANY PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AROUND 0.01 INCHES AT BEST. OTRW...MOST
AREAS ACROSS INTERIOR VA AND THE MD/VA EASTERN SHORE WILL BE
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY...PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC.
WNDS VRB AND MNLY LGT THIS EVE...BECOMING NNE AFT MDNGT...AND A
LTL BREEZY NR THE CST (ESP LT). LO TEMPS TNGT FM THE M/U50S INLAND
TO L60S RIGHT NR THE CST IN SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOTHER PD OF ONSHORE WNDS FM FRI INTO SUN AS LARGE SFC HI PRES
BUILDS FM SE CANADA ACRS NEW ENG. ALONG W/ THE NE WNDS (BREEZY AT
THE CST) WILL BE PDS OF CLDNS...ESP FRI THROUGH SAT MRNG. WHILE
NO TRIGGER FOR PCPN ACRS THE RGN...NOT RULING OUT ISOLD SHRAS OR
DRIZZLE DUE TO THE ENE SFC WNDS.

BY SAT AFTN...THE MARITIME FLO WEAKENS...PTNTLLY ALLOWING DRYING
OVR THE FA. HWVR...SFC LO PRES DEVELOPING OFF THE GA/FL CST FRI
NGT...IS FORECAST TO SLOLY TRACK NE OFF THE SE CONUS CST. SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MDLS WRT THIS SFC LO (NAM SLOWER THAN
GFS W/ ITS EVENTUAL MOVEMENT). RIGHT NOW...ECMWF/GFS/NAM KEEP BULK
OF THAT SYSTEMS MOISTURE TO THE E. WILL BRING INCRSG CLDNS TO CSTL
SECTIONS OF THE FA BEGINNING SAT...WHILE KEEPING OTHER PLACES AT
WORST PCLDY. BY SUN...THE LO XPCD TO TRACK AWAY FM THE
CST...RESULTING IN DRY/SEASONABLY WARM CONDS OVR THE FA.

HI TEMPS FRI MNLY IN THE M/U70S. LO TEMPS FRI NGT FM THE M50S TO
L60S. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE U70S AT THE CST TO L/M80S INLAND. HI
TEMPS SUN RANGING THROUGH THE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE THE NE.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE ERN CONUS
WITH THE EVOLVING AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN. AMPLIFIED PATTERN
WILL FEATURE A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED SECONDARY/REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL BE
RATHER LIMITED ALONG THE FRONT (PWATS ~1.5 INCHES)...BUT HEIGHT
FALLS AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT (JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH) WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE REGION.
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED POPS...WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE OVER THE NRN LOCAL AREA. THE BIGGER HEADLINE WITH THE FRONT
WILL BE THE DRY AIR AND COLD AIR ADVECTION POST FRONTAL AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W-NW. MON WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS
THE COOLEST/DRIEST AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT. REINFORCING SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES-NE STATES TUES AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES OFF
THE ERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE...MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROGRESS EWD OVER
THE CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO THE ERN CONUS TUES-WEDS. COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED TO BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDS. UPPER/SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THURS. THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

HIGHS WILL BE BELOW AVG THRU THE PERIOD...WITH TUES AND WEDS BEING
THE COLDEST DAYS AT NEARLY -1 STD DEV (LOW-MID 70S). WENT A LITTLE
ABOVE WPC GUIDANCE AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S
INLAND TO LOW 60S NEAR THE COAST. FEW LOCALES IN THE PIEDMONT MAY
DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 05Z...VFR SHOULD HOLD FOR THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. BKN-OVC CLOUDS
WITH BASES FROM 5 TO 8 KFT WERE OVER MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE
FAR SE. ISOLD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACRS WESTERN SECTIONS...PERHAPS
IMPACTING KRIC. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THOUGH A WEAK COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT TO EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES/DISSIPATES OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SE CANADA AND THE NE STATES. WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT HAS PRODUCED ELY WINDS OVER THE WATER...AVG 5-10 KT. WAVES
GENERALLY 1-2 FT (LOCALLY UP TO 3 IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY) AND SEAS
3-4 FT. FLOW BECOMES NELY TONIGHT AND FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER NEW ENGLAND. GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN...WITH SPEEDS REACHING 20
KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FRI AFTERNOON. COMBINATION OF STRONG SFC
HIGH PRESSURE...NE FLOW AND WARM WATERS MAY RESULT IN SCA WINDS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. CAPPED AT 20 KT FOR NOW. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 4-5 FT LATE FRI...FIRST IN THE NRN WATERS...THEN SPREADING
SWD OVER THE REMAINING COASTAL WATERS FRI EVENING-NIGHT. SCA
HEADLINES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS LATE FRI THRU FRI
NIGHT (THIRD PERIOD). IF FLOW IS STRONGER THAN FORECAST...6-7 FT
SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE. 4 FT WAVES ALSO POSSIBLE AT THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY PUSH OFF THE NE COAST SAT AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY OFF THE SE COAST. THE LOW
WILL LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY THRU THE WEEKEND...LOCATING OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOMETIME LATE THIS WEEKEND. SCA CONDITIONS ARE
NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM BASED ON THE GRADIENT WINDS...BUT SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES WRT LOW PRESSURE LEND LITTLE CONFIDENCE. SEAS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED (4-5 FT) THRU SAT...BUT FLOW WILL
BRIEFLY BECOME S-SELY LATE SAT-SAT NIGHT AS THE SFC RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN OVER THE WATER. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO DROP BELOW SCA CONDS.

SFC LOW LIFTS NE OFF THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH A COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT-MON MORNING. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER WARM WATERS MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF SCA
CONDS THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/BMD
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM/LSA
MARINE...SAM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 190521
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
121 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND FROM FRIDAY
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WK SFC CDFNT SETTLES THROUGH THE FA THIS EVE...THEN IS S OF THE
RGN BY AFT MDNGT AS MID LVL S/W EXITS OFF THE CST. ONGOING ISOLD
SHRAS INVOF THE MD EASTERN SHORE (DORCHESTER COUNTY) AND FARMVILLE
IN THE EASTERN PIEDMONT ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT S-SW THE REMAINDER
OF THIS EVENING. RADAR RETURNS ARE VERY LIGHT AND ANY PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AROUND 0.01 INCHES AT BEST. OTRW...MOST
AREAS ACROSS INTERIOR VA AND THE MD/VA EASTERN SHORE WILL BE
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY...PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC.
WNDS VRB AND MNLY LGT THIS EVE...BECOMING NNE AFT MDNGT...AND A
LTL BREEZY NR THE CST (ESP LT). LO TEMPS TNGT FM THE M/U50S INLAND
TO L60S RIGHT NR THE CST IN SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOTHER PD OF ONSHORE WNDS FM FRI INTO SUN AS LARGE SFC HI PRES
BUILDS FM SE CANADA ACRS NEW ENG. ALONG W/ THE NE WNDS (BREEZY AT
THE CST) WILL BE PDS OF CLDNS...ESP FRI THROUGH SAT MRNG. WHILE
NO TRIGGER FOR PCPN ACRS THE RGN...NOT RULING OUT ISOLD SHRAS OR
DRIZZLE DUE TO THE ENE SFC WNDS.

BY SAT AFTN...THE MARITIME FLO WEAKENS...PTNTLLY ALLOWING DRYING
OVR THE FA. HWVR...SFC LO PRES DEVELOPING OFF THE GA/FL CST FRI
NGT...IS FORECAST TO SLOLY TRACK NE OFF THE SE CONUS CST. SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MDLS WRT THIS SFC LO (NAM SLOWER THAN
GFS W/ ITS EVENTUAL MOVEMENT). RIGHT NOW...ECMWF/GFS/NAM KEEP BULK
OF THAT SYSTEMS MOISTURE TO THE E. WILL BRING INCRSG CLDNS TO CSTL
SECTIONS OF THE FA BEGINNING SAT...WHILE KEEPING OTHER PLACES AT
WORST PCLDY. BY SUN...THE LO XPCD TO TRACK AWAY FM THE
CST...RESULTING IN DRY/SEASONABLY WARM CONDS OVR THE FA.

HI TEMPS FRI MNLY IN THE M/U70S. LO TEMPS FRI NGT FM THE M50S TO
L60S. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE U70S AT THE CST TO L/M80S INLAND. HI
TEMPS SUN RANGING THROUGH THE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE THE NE.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE ERN CONUS
WITH THE EVOLVING AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN. AMPLIFIED PATTERN
WILL FEATURE A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED SECONDARY/REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL BE
RATHER LIMITED ALONG THE FRONT (PWATS ~1.5 INCHES)...BUT HEIGHT
FALLS AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT (JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH) WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE REGION.
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED POPS...WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE OVER THE NRN LOCAL AREA. THE BIGGER HEADLINE WITH THE FRONT
WILL BE THE DRY AIR AND COLD AIR ADVECTION POST FRONTAL AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W-NW. MON WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS
THE COOLEST/DRIEST AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT. REINFORCING SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES-NE STATES TUES AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES OFF
THE ERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE...MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROGRESS EWD OVER
THE CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO THE ERN CONUS TUES-WEDS. COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED TO BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDS. UPPER/SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THURS. THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

HIGHS WILL BE BELOW AVG THRU THE PERIOD...WITH TUES AND WEDS BEING
THE COLDEST DAYS AT NEARLY -1 STD DEV (LOW-MID 70S). WENT A LITTLE
ABOVE WPC GUIDANCE AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S
INLAND TO LOW 60S NEAR THE COAST. FEW LOCALES IN THE PIEDMONT MAY
DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 05Z...VFR SHOULD HOLD FOR THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. BKN-OVC CLOUDS
WITH BASES FROM 5 TO 8 KFT WERE OVER MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE
FAR SE. ISOLD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACRS WESTERN SECTIONS...PERHAPS
IMPACTING KRIC. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THOUGH A WEAK COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT TO EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES/DISSIPATES OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SE CANADA AND THE NE STATES. WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT HAS PRODUCED ELY WINDS OVER THE WATER...AVG 5-10 KT. WAVES
GENERALLY 1-2 FT (LOCALLY UP TO 3 IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY) AND SEAS
3-4 FT. FLOW BECOMES NELY TONIGHT AND FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER NEW ENGLAND. GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN...WITH SPEEDS REACHING 20
KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FRI AFTERNOON. COMBINATION OF STRONG SFC
HIGH PRESSURE...NE FLOW AND WARM WATERS MAY RESULT IN SCA WINDS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. CAPPED AT 20 KT FOR NOW. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 4-5 FT LATE FRI...FIRST IN THE NRN WATERS...THEN SPREADING
SWD OVER THE REMAINING COASTAL WATERS FRI EVENING-NIGHT. SCA
HEADLINES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS LATE FRI THRU FRI
NIGHT (THIRD PERIOD). IF FLOW IS STRONGER THAN FORECAST...6-7 FT
SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE. 4 FT WAVES ALSO POSSIBLE AT THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY PUSH OFF THE NE COAST SAT AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY OFF THE SE COAST. THE LOW
WILL LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY THRU THE WEEKEND...LOCATING OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOMETIME LATE THIS WEEKEND. SCA CONDITIONS ARE
NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM BASED ON THE GRADIENT WINDS...BUT SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES WRT LOW PRESSURE LEND LITTLE CONFIDENCE. SEAS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED (4-5 FT) THRU SAT...BUT FLOW WILL
BRIEFLY BECOME S-SELY LATE SAT-SAT NIGHT AS THE SFC RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN OVER THE WATER. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO DROP BELOW SCA CONDS.

SFC LOW LIFTS NE OFF THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH A COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT-MON MORNING. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER WARM WATERS MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF SCA
CONDS THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/BMD
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM/LSA
MARINE...SAM






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190505 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
105 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS
THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
NO CHANGES NEED TO OVERNIGHT FORECAST. ONLY UPDATE WAS TO
TEMPERATURES USING LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CLEAR THE AREA THIS MORNING. BROAD SURFACE HIGH
WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND TODAY. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS
WILL GRADUALLY RISE AS RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. SOMEWHAT
INTERESTING SCENARIO SETS UP THIS AFTERNOON AS FLOW AT 850 BACKS
TOWARD THE SOUTH AND INCREASES. AT THE SAME TIME...FLOW NEAR THE
SURFACE REMAINS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. LATEST NAM IS SHOWING
MOISTURE INCREASING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THEN DRIVING NORTHWARD
IN THE STRENGTHENING FLOW AT 850. WOULD EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER OVER AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS KEEP THE MOISTURE TRAPPED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE MOISTURE MIXES OUT
ALLOWING FOR A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD HINDER WIDESPREAD SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
SO WILL LEAVE POP IN THE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE.

FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON GETTING A PUSH FROM A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL SWING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO MOISTURE POOLING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. IN
ADDITION...THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL INCLUDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MODELS MAY BE OVERPLAYING THEIR HANDS A BIT ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH
CURRENT DATA...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT STRONGER CONVECTION
COULD DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL EXIT REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL DRY AND COOL PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WITH BLDG HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO BE BLEMISHED ONLY BY SOME
PERIDAWN FOG. SFC WIND WL RMN LGT...BUT IS PROJECTED TO BECOME
E OR SE FRIDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
GENL RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH A SUNDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190505 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
105 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS
THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
NO CHANGES NEED TO OVERNIGHT FORECAST. ONLY UPDATE WAS TO
TEMPERATURES USING LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CLEAR THE AREA THIS MORNING. BROAD SURFACE HIGH
WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND TODAY. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS
WILL GRADUALLY RISE AS RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. SOMEWHAT
INTERESTING SCENARIO SETS UP THIS AFTERNOON AS FLOW AT 850 BACKS
TOWARD THE SOUTH AND INCREASES. AT THE SAME TIME...FLOW NEAR THE
SURFACE REMAINS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. LATEST NAM IS SHOWING
MOISTURE INCREASING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THEN DRIVING NORTHWARD
IN THE STRENGTHENING FLOW AT 850. WOULD EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER OVER AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS KEEP THE MOISTURE TRAPPED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE MOISTURE MIXES OUT
ALLOWING FOR A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD HINDER WIDESPREAD SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
SO WILL LEAVE POP IN THE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE.

FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON GETTING A PUSH FROM A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL SWING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO MOISTURE POOLING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. IN
ADDITION...THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL INCLUDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MODELS MAY BE OVERPLAYING THEIR HANDS A BIT ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH
CURRENT DATA...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT STRONGER CONVECTION
COULD DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL EXIT REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL DRY AND COOL PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WITH BLDG HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO BE BLEMISHED ONLY BY SOME
PERIDAWN FOG. SFC WIND WL RMN LGT...BUT IS PROJECTED TO BECOME
E OR SE FRIDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
GENL RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH A SUNDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KLWX 190129 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
929 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL AND BANK UP AGAINST THE LEE SIDE OF THE
SRN APLCNS AND THE FOOTHILLS...WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT SCRAPES THE
NRN EDGE AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE COAST. THE FRONT HAS ALLOWED
ANOTHER DRIER AIR SURGE TO RETURN FROM THE NORTH. DEWPOINTS ACROSS
THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA ARE STARTING TO DROP INTO THE M-U40S...A
GOOD SIGN THAT IT WILL BE A COOL NIGHT THERE. THE STRATIFICATION
OF MOISTURE HOWEVER MAKES A DECENT-SIZED LEAP ON THE ERN SIDE OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AND PARTICULARLY ALONG THE LOWLANDS OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR/COASTAL ZONES. DEWPOINTS WILL HANG TIGHT IN THE
U50S/L60S...KEEPING THESE AREAS MORE MODERATED FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
AND DOWN ACROSS THE CHO/I-64 CORRIDOR W/ ADDITIONAL DENSE OVC
SKIES. USED A BLEND OF THE ADJMAV AND LOCAL WRF GUIDANCE FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH
FRIDAY...BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...THE FLOW WILL TURN ONSHORE AND THIS MAY
CAUSE CLOUDS TO GET TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN MARYLAND...CENTRAL
VIRGINIA AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WHERE A FEW SPRINKLES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S IN
THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S NEAR WASHINGTON
AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTH AND WEST TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME...AND IT MAY LEAD TO SOME LOW CLOUDS
ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO SUNSHINE SATURDAY...AND THAT
WILL CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO BE A BIT WARMER COMPARED TO
FRIDAY...RANGING FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 80 ACROSS
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE
COLD WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CAUSE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TO THE EAST COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT...MAINLY FROM
THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY EAST TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW INSTABILITY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP
ENLIGHTEN TO THIS TROUGH. FOR THE MOST PART...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE
DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD HANG ON TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY
BEFORE IT MOVES OFFSHORE AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT SAGS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE IN PLACE...MOST AREAS WILL BE RAIN-FREE.

A SECOND AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND
USHER IN COLDER THAN NORMAL AIR INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AND THIS
MAY LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS ACROSS KCHO. ALSO PATCHY BR IS POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR KMRB AND KCHO.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS FRIDAY...BUT
LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST ACROSS KCHO WHICH COULD LEAD TO MVFR
CONDITIONS. LOW CLOUDS MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND AGAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
AN ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
TERMINALS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
A PRESSURE SURGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND AN EXITING COLD
FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...CAUSING WINDS TO
INCREASE AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MARYLAND
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
MARGINAL WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS.

AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WIND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH SCA CRITERIA AT TIMES...BUT THE GUSTS HAVE BEEN CAPPED AT
15 KNOTS FOR NOW DUE TO A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS SUNDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES HAVE INCREASED TO ABOUT 1 TO 1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
FROM THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW WILL BE CONTINUE TO BE
LIGHT THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE INCREASING AND TURNING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. WITH NO OFFSHORE FLOW TO PUSH
THE WATER OUT OF THE BAY...THESE TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY FOR
ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY THROUGH ST MARYS COUNTY.

ELSEWHERE...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE NEAR HIGH TIDE LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
FOR A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AT THIS POINT.

AN ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...CAUSING
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ017-018.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537-539>541-543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...BJL/KLW









000
FXUS61 KLWX 190129 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
929 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL AND BANK UP AGAINST THE LEE SIDE OF THE
SRN APLCNS AND THE FOOTHILLS...WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT SCRAPES THE
NRN EDGE AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE COAST. THE FRONT HAS ALLOWED
ANOTHER DRIER AIR SURGE TO RETURN FROM THE NORTH. DEWPOINTS ACROSS
THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA ARE STARTING TO DROP INTO THE M-U40S...A
GOOD SIGN THAT IT WILL BE A COOL NIGHT THERE. THE STRATIFICATION
OF MOISTURE HOWEVER MAKES A DECENT-SIZED LEAP ON THE ERN SIDE OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AND PARTICULARLY ALONG THE LOWLANDS OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR/COASTAL ZONES. DEWPOINTS WILL HANG TIGHT IN THE
U50S/L60S...KEEPING THESE AREAS MORE MODERATED FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
AND DOWN ACROSS THE CHO/I-64 CORRIDOR W/ ADDITIONAL DENSE OVC
SKIES. USED A BLEND OF THE ADJMAV AND LOCAL WRF GUIDANCE FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH
FRIDAY...BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...THE FLOW WILL TURN ONSHORE AND THIS MAY
CAUSE CLOUDS TO GET TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN MARYLAND...CENTRAL
VIRGINIA AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WHERE A FEW SPRINKLES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S IN
THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S NEAR WASHINGTON
AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTH AND WEST TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME...AND IT MAY LEAD TO SOME LOW CLOUDS
ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO SUNSHINE SATURDAY...AND THAT
WILL CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO BE A BIT WARMER COMPARED TO
FRIDAY...RANGING FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 80 ACROSS
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE
COLD WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CAUSE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TO THE EAST COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT...MAINLY FROM
THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY EAST TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW INSTABILITY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP
ENLIGHTEN TO THIS TROUGH. FOR THE MOST PART...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE
DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD HANG ON TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY
BEFORE IT MOVES OFFSHORE AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT SAGS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE IN PLACE...MOST AREAS WILL BE RAIN-FREE.

A SECOND AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND
USHER IN COLDER THAN NORMAL AIR INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AND THIS
MAY LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS ACROSS KCHO. ALSO PATCHY BR IS POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR KMRB AND KCHO.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS FRIDAY...BUT
LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST ACROSS KCHO WHICH COULD LEAD TO MVFR
CONDITIONS. LOW CLOUDS MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND AGAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
AN ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
TERMINALS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
A PRESSURE SURGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND AN EXITING COLD
FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...CAUSING WINDS TO
INCREASE AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MARYLAND
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
MARGINAL WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS.

AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WIND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH SCA CRITERIA AT TIMES...BUT THE GUSTS HAVE BEEN CAPPED AT
15 KNOTS FOR NOW DUE TO A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS SUNDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES HAVE INCREASED TO ABOUT 1 TO 1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
FROM THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW WILL BE CONTINUE TO BE
LIGHT THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE INCREASING AND TURNING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. WITH NO OFFSHORE FLOW TO PUSH
THE WATER OUT OF THE BAY...THESE TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY FOR
ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY THROUGH ST MARYS COUNTY.

ELSEWHERE...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE NEAR HIGH TIDE LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
FOR A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AT THIS POINT.

AN ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...CAUSING
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ017-018.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537-539>541-543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...BJL/KLW









000
FXUS61 KLWX 190129 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
929 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL AND BANK UP AGAINST THE LEE SIDE OF THE
SRN APLCNS AND THE FOOTHILLS...WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT SCRAPES THE
NRN EDGE AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE COAST. THE FRONT HAS ALLOWED
ANOTHER DRIER AIR SURGE TO RETURN FROM THE NORTH. DEWPOINTS ACROSS
THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA ARE STARTING TO DROP INTO THE M-U40S...A
GOOD SIGN THAT IT WILL BE A COOL NIGHT THERE. THE STRATIFICATION
OF MOISTURE HOWEVER MAKES A DECENT-SIZED LEAP ON THE ERN SIDE OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AND PARTICULARLY ALONG THE LOWLANDS OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR/COASTAL ZONES. DEWPOINTS WILL HANG TIGHT IN THE
U50S/L60S...KEEPING THESE AREAS MORE MODERATED FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
AND DOWN ACROSS THE CHO/I-64 CORRIDOR W/ ADDITIONAL DENSE OVC
SKIES. USED A BLEND OF THE ADJMAV AND LOCAL WRF GUIDANCE FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH
FRIDAY...BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...THE FLOW WILL TURN ONSHORE AND THIS MAY
CAUSE CLOUDS TO GET TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN MARYLAND...CENTRAL
VIRGINIA AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WHERE A FEW SPRINKLES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S IN
THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S NEAR WASHINGTON
AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTH AND WEST TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME...AND IT MAY LEAD TO SOME LOW CLOUDS
ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO SUNSHINE SATURDAY...AND THAT
WILL CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO BE A BIT WARMER COMPARED TO
FRIDAY...RANGING FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 80 ACROSS
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE
COLD WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CAUSE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TO THE EAST COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT...MAINLY FROM
THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY EAST TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW INSTABILITY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP
ENLIGHTEN TO THIS TROUGH. FOR THE MOST PART...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE
DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD HANG ON TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY
BEFORE IT MOVES OFFSHORE AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT SAGS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE IN PLACE...MOST AREAS WILL BE RAIN-FREE.

A SECOND AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND
USHER IN COLDER THAN NORMAL AIR INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AND THIS
MAY LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS ACROSS KCHO. ALSO PATCHY BR IS POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR KMRB AND KCHO.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS FRIDAY...BUT
LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST ACROSS KCHO WHICH COULD LEAD TO MVFR
CONDITIONS. LOW CLOUDS MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND AGAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
AN ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
TERMINALS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
A PRESSURE SURGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND AN EXITING COLD
FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...CAUSING WINDS TO
INCREASE AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MARYLAND
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
MARGINAL WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS.

AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WIND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH SCA CRITERIA AT TIMES...BUT THE GUSTS HAVE BEEN CAPPED AT
15 KNOTS FOR NOW DUE TO A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS SUNDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES HAVE INCREASED TO ABOUT 1 TO 1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
FROM THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW WILL BE CONTINUE TO BE
LIGHT THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE INCREASING AND TURNING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. WITH NO OFFSHORE FLOW TO PUSH
THE WATER OUT OF THE BAY...THESE TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY FOR
ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY THROUGH ST MARYS COUNTY.

ELSEWHERE...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE NEAR HIGH TIDE LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
FOR A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AT THIS POINT.

AN ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...CAUSING
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ017-018.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537-539>541-543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...BJL/KLW









000
FXUS61 KLWX 190129 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
929 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL AND BANK UP AGAINST THE LEE SIDE OF THE
SRN APLCNS AND THE FOOTHILLS...WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT SCRAPES THE
NRN EDGE AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE COAST. THE FRONT HAS ALLOWED
ANOTHER DRIER AIR SURGE TO RETURN FROM THE NORTH. DEWPOINTS ACROSS
THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA ARE STARTING TO DROP INTO THE M-U40S...A
GOOD SIGN THAT IT WILL BE A COOL NIGHT THERE. THE STRATIFICATION
OF MOISTURE HOWEVER MAKES A DECENT-SIZED LEAP ON THE ERN SIDE OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AND PARTICULARLY ALONG THE LOWLANDS OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR/COASTAL ZONES. DEWPOINTS WILL HANG TIGHT IN THE
U50S/L60S...KEEPING THESE AREAS MORE MODERATED FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
AND DOWN ACROSS THE CHO/I-64 CORRIDOR W/ ADDITIONAL DENSE OVC
SKIES. USED A BLEND OF THE ADJMAV AND LOCAL WRF GUIDANCE FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH
FRIDAY...BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...THE FLOW WILL TURN ONSHORE AND THIS MAY
CAUSE CLOUDS TO GET TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN MARYLAND...CENTRAL
VIRGINIA AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WHERE A FEW SPRINKLES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S IN
THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S NEAR WASHINGTON
AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTH AND WEST TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME...AND IT MAY LEAD TO SOME LOW CLOUDS
ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO SUNSHINE SATURDAY...AND THAT
WILL CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO BE A BIT WARMER COMPARED TO
FRIDAY...RANGING FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 80 ACROSS
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE
COLD WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CAUSE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TO THE EAST COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT...MAINLY FROM
THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY EAST TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW INSTABILITY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP
ENLIGHTEN TO THIS TROUGH. FOR THE MOST PART...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE
DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD HANG ON TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY
BEFORE IT MOVES OFFSHORE AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT SAGS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE IN PLACE...MOST AREAS WILL BE RAIN-FREE.

A SECOND AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND
USHER IN COLDER THAN NORMAL AIR INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AND THIS
MAY LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS ACROSS KCHO. ALSO PATCHY BR IS POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR KMRB AND KCHO.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS FRIDAY...BUT
LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST ACROSS KCHO WHICH COULD LEAD TO MVFR
CONDITIONS. LOW CLOUDS MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND AGAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
AN ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
TERMINALS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
A PRESSURE SURGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND AN EXITING COLD
FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...CAUSING WINDS TO
INCREASE AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MARYLAND
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
MARGINAL WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS.

AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WIND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH SCA CRITERIA AT TIMES...BUT THE GUSTS HAVE BEEN CAPPED AT
15 KNOTS FOR NOW DUE TO A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS SUNDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES HAVE INCREASED TO ABOUT 1 TO 1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
FROM THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW WILL BE CONTINUE TO BE
LIGHT THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE INCREASING AND TURNING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. WITH NO OFFSHORE FLOW TO PUSH
THE WATER OUT OF THE BAY...THESE TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY FOR
ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY THROUGH ST MARYS COUNTY.

ELSEWHERE...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE NEAR HIGH TIDE LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
FOR A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AT THIS POINT.

AN ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...CAUSING
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ017-018.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537-539>541-543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...BJL/KLW









000
FXUS61 KPHI 190103
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
903 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TO OUR NORTHWEST
SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO OUR SOUTH
MONDAY, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. A
WEAKENING FRONT MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY, BEFORE THE
HIGH FULLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES WITH THIS ESTF UPDATE. HRRR/COSPA HAVE THE LAST OF
THE SHOWERS EXITING OUR LOWER DELMARVA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
COLD FRONT SITUATED JUST EAST OF I95. WITH SHORT WAVE DEPARTING
AND FRONT NEARING, THIS SHOULD BE THE END FOR ANY SHOWER CHANCES.

ELSEWHERE, SKIES HAVE BECOME CLEARER, BUT THERE IS STILL ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE AND DEBRIS CLOUDS OVER WESTERN NY/NORTHWESTERN PA TO
KEEP SOME CLOUDS IN THE GRIDS.

TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT MORE PROBLEMATIC AS THERE HAS BEEN SOME
DECOUPLING. LATEST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF LESS THAN 15 KNOTS
SUGGESTING THE DECOUPLING MIGHT HOLD FOR A WHILE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE WINDS JUST ABOVE THAT LAYER BECOME TOO STRONG.
SO WE LOWERED MIN TEMPS A BIT, BUT LEVELED THEM OFF (EXCEPT FOR FAR
NW) TOWARD MORNING AS THE GRADIENT SHOULD INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN
QUEBEC TO THE GULF OF MAINE ON FRIDAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND
THE HIGH IN THE MORNING WILL VEER OUT OF THE EAST BY THE END OF THE
DAY FRIDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. EXPECT MARINE LAYER TO ADVECT
INLAND DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MARINE CLOUDS SHOULD
BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ WHERE BOTH
ONSHORE WINDS AROUND THE HIGH AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ARE GREATEST. KEPT
SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT THE 12Z NAM DOES DEPICT LIGHT PRECIP
FOR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. DO THINK THE NAM WAS TOO BULLISH REGARDING
RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON FRIDAY. FORECAST HIGHS
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE POCONOS TO MID 70S IN THE CENTRAL
DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT, WHICH
WILL INCREASE AN EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND IF THE MOISTURE IS DEEP
ENOUGH, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FOG/DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS AT
LEAST THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. THEREFORE WE HAVE
INTRODUCED PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG ACROSS THESE AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT, RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS WHICH WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA. A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY LIFT TO OUR NORTHWEST, BUT MAY
NOT PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR AREA TO BRING ANY EFFECTS. ALSO, THERE
IS A WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE SATURDAY, BUT WITH LIMITED
VERTICAL MOISTURE, WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION, SO FOR NOW WE KEEP IT DRY.

ON SUNDAY, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WE
DO NOT EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY
ON SUNDAY, BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY. SO WE WILL HAVE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA AND
TO THE WEST DURING THE DAY, BUT THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT WE
LOSE THE INSTABILITY BEFORE THE ACTIVITY REACHES OUR AREA. FOR NOW
WE WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL IT LOOKS LIKE WE
HAVE A BETTER SHOT OF INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITATION COINCIDING
WITH EACH OTHER.

ON MONDAY, THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT TO SEA, AND WHAT EVER
SHOWERS ARE LEFT OVER ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA WILL MOVE
AWAY WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, BEFORE A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. FOR NOW THE FRONT
LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE A MOSTLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THEN HIGH PRESSURE FULLY BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK, WHICH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TAFS WERE ISSUED AT 00Z. FOR THIS EVENING, SOME RESIDUAL
BORDERLINE LOW/MID LEVEL VFR CLOUDS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

OVERNIGHT THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE TAF SITES AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN WINDS FROM THE NORTH.
THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW RESIDUAL VFR CLOUDS AROUND. DO NOT
BELIEVE MVFR CIG IN WESTERN NY STATE WILL MAKE IT TO THE TAF SITES
(MAYBE THE POCONO AIRPORTS). NO FOG RESTRICTIONS.

ON FRIDAY, WINDS WILL BE SLOWLY VEERING FROM THE NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST AND SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. INLAND TERMINALS WITHOUT AN AFTERNOON FORECAST CHANGE
GROUP THE WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED IS THE AVERAGE FOR THE DAY.

WE ARE EXPECTING JUST SCATTERED VFR CUMULUS BASED CLOUDS. AT KACY
AND KMIV, A VFR CIG IS PREDICTED LATE. THIS IS CARRIED INTO KPHL
ON THE 30HR TAF DURING FRIDAY EVENING.


OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWER CIGS AND/OR VSBYS POSSIBLE TO MVFR LEVELS
OVERNIGHT WITHIN A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR DURING THE DAY. LOWER CIGS
AND/OR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN VFR
DURING THE DAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH RAIN AND LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY W-NW WINDS 15-20 KNOTS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
LONG PERIOD SWELLS GENERATED BY EDOUARD CONTINUE TO REACH THE NJ AND
DE COAST THIS AFTN (LATEST OBS SHOW 11-13 SEC WAVE PERIODS). SEAS
AND WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

NE WINDS VEER OUT OF THE EAST ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE 15-20
KT WITH ISOLATED GUSTS NEAR 25 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL ZONES. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO 5 FT DURING THIS
TIME OWING TO A LONG ONSHORE FETCH AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF MAINE. SCA WAS ISSUED FOR THESE ZONES.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT AS WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE EASTERLY FLOW.

SATURDAY...SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO SATURDAY, SO THE ADVISORY
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS, BUT WINDS MAY GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN AND
INCREASING WINDS. WINDS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
IN HOUSE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MODERATE RISK INTO FRIDAY FOR NJ/DE
FIRST BECAUSE OF RESIDUAL LONG PERIOD SWELLS GENERATED BY EDOUARD
AND THEN FOR THE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. ITS POSSIBLE THAT THE
RIP CURRENT RISK MIGHT BECOME HIGH BY THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ451>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLINE/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...GIGI






000
FXUS61 KPHI 190103
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
903 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TO OUR NORTHWEST
SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO OUR SOUTH
MONDAY, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. A
WEAKENING FRONT MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY, BEFORE THE
HIGH FULLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES WITH THIS ESTF UPDATE. HRRR/COSPA HAVE THE LAST OF
THE SHOWERS EXITING OUR LOWER DELMARVA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
COLD FRONT SITUATED JUST EAST OF I95. WITH SHORT WAVE DEPARTING
AND FRONT NEARING, THIS SHOULD BE THE END FOR ANY SHOWER CHANCES.

ELSEWHERE, SKIES HAVE BECOME CLEARER, BUT THERE IS STILL ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE AND DEBRIS CLOUDS OVER WESTERN NY/NORTHWESTERN PA TO
KEEP SOME CLOUDS IN THE GRIDS.

TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT MORE PROBLEMATIC AS THERE HAS BEEN SOME
DECOUPLING. LATEST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF LESS THAN 15 KNOTS
SUGGESTING THE DECOUPLING MIGHT HOLD FOR A WHILE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE WINDS JUST ABOVE THAT LAYER BECOME TOO STRONG.
SO WE LOWERED MIN TEMPS A BIT, BUT LEVELED THEM OFF (EXCEPT FOR FAR
NW) TOWARD MORNING AS THE GRADIENT SHOULD INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN
QUEBEC TO THE GULF OF MAINE ON FRIDAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND
THE HIGH IN THE MORNING WILL VEER OUT OF THE EAST BY THE END OF THE
DAY FRIDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. EXPECT MARINE LAYER TO ADVECT
INLAND DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MARINE CLOUDS SHOULD
BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ WHERE BOTH
ONSHORE WINDS AROUND THE HIGH AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ARE GREATEST. KEPT
SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT THE 12Z NAM DOES DEPICT LIGHT PRECIP
FOR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. DO THINK THE NAM WAS TOO BULLISH REGARDING
RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON FRIDAY. FORECAST HIGHS
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE POCONOS TO MID 70S IN THE CENTRAL
DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT, WHICH
WILL INCREASE AN EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND IF THE MOISTURE IS DEEP
ENOUGH, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FOG/DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS AT
LEAST THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. THEREFORE WE HAVE
INTRODUCED PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG ACROSS THESE AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT, RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS WHICH WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA. A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY LIFT TO OUR NORTHWEST, BUT MAY
NOT PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR AREA TO BRING ANY EFFECTS. ALSO, THERE
IS A WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE SATURDAY, BUT WITH LIMITED
VERTICAL MOISTURE, WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION, SO FOR NOW WE KEEP IT DRY.

ON SUNDAY, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WE
DO NOT EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY
ON SUNDAY, BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY. SO WE WILL HAVE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA AND
TO THE WEST DURING THE DAY, BUT THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT WE
LOSE THE INSTABILITY BEFORE THE ACTIVITY REACHES OUR AREA. FOR NOW
WE WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL IT LOOKS LIKE WE
HAVE A BETTER SHOT OF INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITATION COINCIDING
WITH EACH OTHER.

ON MONDAY, THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT TO SEA, AND WHAT EVER
SHOWERS ARE LEFT OVER ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA WILL MOVE
AWAY WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, BEFORE A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. FOR NOW THE FRONT
LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE A MOSTLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THEN HIGH PRESSURE FULLY BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK, WHICH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TAFS WERE ISSUED AT 00Z. FOR THIS EVENING, SOME RESIDUAL
BORDERLINE LOW/MID LEVEL VFR CLOUDS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

OVERNIGHT THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE TAF SITES AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN WINDS FROM THE NORTH.
THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW RESIDUAL VFR CLOUDS AROUND. DO NOT
BELIEVE MVFR CIG IN WESTERN NY STATE WILL MAKE IT TO THE TAF SITES
(MAYBE THE POCONO AIRPORTS). NO FOG RESTRICTIONS.

ON FRIDAY, WINDS WILL BE SLOWLY VEERING FROM THE NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST AND SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. INLAND TERMINALS WITHOUT AN AFTERNOON FORECAST CHANGE
GROUP THE WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED IS THE AVERAGE FOR THE DAY.

WE ARE EXPECTING JUST SCATTERED VFR CUMULUS BASED CLOUDS. AT KACY
AND KMIV, A VFR CIG IS PREDICTED LATE. THIS IS CARRIED INTO KPHL
ON THE 30HR TAF DURING FRIDAY EVENING.


OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWER CIGS AND/OR VSBYS POSSIBLE TO MVFR LEVELS
OVERNIGHT WITHIN A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR DURING THE DAY. LOWER CIGS
AND/OR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN VFR
DURING THE DAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH RAIN AND LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY W-NW WINDS 15-20 KNOTS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
LONG PERIOD SWELLS GENERATED BY EDOUARD CONTINUE TO REACH THE NJ AND
DE COAST THIS AFTN (LATEST OBS SHOW 11-13 SEC WAVE PERIODS). SEAS
AND WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

NE WINDS VEER OUT OF THE EAST ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE 15-20
KT WITH ISOLATED GUSTS NEAR 25 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL ZONES. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO 5 FT DURING THIS
TIME OWING TO A LONG ONSHORE FETCH AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF MAINE. SCA WAS ISSUED FOR THESE ZONES.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT AS WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE EASTERLY FLOW.

SATURDAY...SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO SATURDAY, SO THE ADVISORY
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS, BUT WINDS MAY GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN AND
INCREASING WINDS. WINDS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
IN HOUSE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MODERATE RISK INTO FRIDAY FOR NJ/DE
FIRST BECAUSE OF RESIDUAL LONG PERIOD SWELLS GENERATED BY EDOUARD
AND THEN FOR THE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. ITS POSSIBLE THAT THE
RIP CURRENT RISK MIGHT BECOME HIGH BY THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ451>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLINE/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...GIGI






000
FXUS61 KPHI 190103
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
903 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TO OUR NORTHWEST
SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO OUR SOUTH
MONDAY, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. A
WEAKENING FRONT MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY, BEFORE THE
HIGH FULLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES WITH THIS ESTF UPDATE. HRRR/COSPA HAVE THE LAST OF
THE SHOWERS EXITING OUR LOWER DELMARVA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
COLD FRONT SITUATED JUST EAST OF I95. WITH SHORT WAVE DEPARTING
AND FRONT NEARING, THIS SHOULD BE THE END FOR ANY SHOWER CHANCES.

ELSEWHERE, SKIES HAVE BECOME CLEARER, BUT THERE IS STILL ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE AND DEBRIS CLOUDS OVER WESTERN NY/NORTHWESTERN PA TO
KEEP SOME CLOUDS IN THE GRIDS.

TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT MORE PROBLEMATIC AS THERE HAS BEEN SOME
DECOUPLING. LATEST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF LESS THAN 15 KNOTS
SUGGESTING THE DECOUPLING MIGHT HOLD FOR A WHILE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE WINDS JUST ABOVE THAT LAYER BECOME TOO STRONG.
SO WE LOWERED MIN TEMPS A BIT, BUT LEVELED THEM OFF (EXCEPT FOR FAR
NW) TOWARD MORNING AS THE GRADIENT SHOULD INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN
QUEBEC TO THE GULF OF MAINE ON FRIDAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND
THE HIGH IN THE MORNING WILL VEER OUT OF THE EAST BY THE END OF THE
DAY FRIDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. EXPECT MARINE LAYER TO ADVECT
INLAND DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MARINE CLOUDS SHOULD
BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ WHERE BOTH
ONSHORE WINDS AROUND THE HIGH AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ARE GREATEST. KEPT
SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT THE 12Z NAM DOES DEPICT LIGHT PRECIP
FOR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. DO THINK THE NAM WAS TOO BULLISH REGARDING
RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON FRIDAY. FORECAST HIGHS
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE POCONOS TO MID 70S IN THE CENTRAL
DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT, WHICH
WILL INCREASE AN EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND IF THE MOISTURE IS DEEP
ENOUGH, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FOG/DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS AT
LEAST THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. THEREFORE WE HAVE
INTRODUCED PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG ACROSS THESE AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT, RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS WHICH WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA. A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY LIFT TO OUR NORTHWEST, BUT MAY
NOT PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR AREA TO BRING ANY EFFECTS. ALSO, THERE
IS A WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE SATURDAY, BUT WITH LIMITED
VERTICAL MOISTURE, WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION, SO FOR NOW WE KEEP IT DRY.

ON SUNDAY, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WE
DO NOT EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY
ON SUNDAY, BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY. SO WE WILL HAVE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA AND
TO THE WEST DURING THE DAY, BUT THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT WE
LOSE THE INSTABILITY BEFORE THE ACTIVITY REACHES OUR AREA. FOR NOW
WE WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL IT LOOKS LIKE WE
HAVE A BETTER SHOT OF INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITATION COINCIDING
WITH EACH OTHER.

ON MONDAY, THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT TO SEA, AND WHAT EVER
SHOWERS ARE LEFT OVER ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA WILL MOVE
AWAY WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, BEFORE A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. FOR NOW THE FRONT
LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE A MOSTLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THEN HIGH PRESSURE FULLY BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK, WHICH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TAFS WERE ISSUED AT 00Z. FOR THIS EVENING, SOME RESIDUAL
BORDERLINE LOW/MID LEVEL VFR CLOUDS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

OVERNIGHT THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE TAF SITES AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN WINDS FROM THE NORTH.
THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW RESIDUAL VFR CLOUDS AROUND. DO NOT
BELIEVE MVFR CIG IN WESTERN NY STATE WILL MAKE IT TO THE TAF SITES
(MAYBE THE POCONO AIRPORTS). NO FOG RESTRICTIONS.

ON FRIDAY, WINDS WILL BE SLOWLY VEERING FROM THE NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST AND SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. INLAND TERMINALS WITHOUT AN AFTERNOON FORECAST CHANGE
GROUP THE WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED IS THE AVERAGE FOR THE DAY.

WE ARE EXPECTING JUST SCATTERED VFR CUMULUS BASED CLOUDS. AT KACY
AND KMIV, A VFR CIG IS PREDICTED LATE. THIS IS CARRIED INTO KPHL
ON THE 30HR TAF DURING FRIDAY EVENING.


OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWER CIGS AND/OR VSBYS POSSIBLE TO MVFR LEVELS
OVERNIGHT WITHIN A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR DURING THE DAY. LOWER CIGS
AND/OR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN VFR
DURING THE DAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH RAIN AND LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY W-NW WINDS 15-20 KNOTS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
LONG PERIOD SWELLS GENERATED BY EDOUARD CONTINUE TO REACH THE NJ AND
DE COAST THIS AFTN (LATEST OBS SHOW 11-13 SEC WAVE PERIODS). SEAS
AND WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

NE WINDS VEER OUT OF THE EAST ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE 15-20
KT WITH ISOLATED GUSTS NEAR 25 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL ZONES. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO 5 FT DURING THIS
TIME OWING TO A LONG ONSHORE FETCH AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF MAINE. SCA WAS ISSUED FOR THESE ZONES.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT AS WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE EASTERLY FLOW.

SATURDAY...SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO SATURDAY, SO THE ADVISORY
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS, BUT WINDS MAY GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN AND
INCREASING WINDS. WINDS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
IN HOUSE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MODERATE RISK INTO FRIDAY FOR NJ/DE
FIRST BECAUSE OF RESIDUAL LONG PERIOD SWELLS GENERATED BY EDOUARD
AND THEN FOR THE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. ITS POSSIBLE THAT THE
RIP CURRENT RISK MIGHT BECOME HIGH BY THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ451>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLINE/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...GIGI






000
FXUS61 KPHI 190103
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
903 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TO OUR NORTHWEST
SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO OUR SOUTH
MONDAY, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. A
WEAKENING FRONT MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY, BEFORE THE
HIGH FULLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES WITH THIS ESTF UPDATE. HRRR/COSPA HAVE THE LAST OF
THE SHOWERS EXITING OUR LOWER DELMARVA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
COLD FRONT SITUATED JUST EAST OF I95. WITH SHORT WAVE DEPARTING
AND FRONT NEARING, THIS SHOULD BE THE END FOR ANY SHOWER CHANCES.

ELSEWHERE, SKIES HAVE BECOME CLEARER, BUT THERE IS STILL ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE AND DEBRIS CLOUDS OVER WESTERN NY/NORTHWESTERN PA TO
KEEP SOME CLOUDS IN THE GRIDS.

TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT MORE PROBLEMATIC AS THERE HAS BEEN SOME
DECOUPLING. LATEST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF LESS THAN 15 KNOTS
SUGGESTING THE DECOUPLING MIGHT HOLD FOR A WHILE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE WINDS JUST ABOVE THAT LAYER BECOME TOO STRONG.
SO WE LOWERED MIN TEMPS A BIT, BUT LEVELED THEM OFF (EXCEPT FOR FAR
NW) TOWARD MORNING AS THE GRADIENT SHOULD INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN
QUEBEC TO THE GULF OF MAINE ON FRIDAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND
THE HIGH IN THE MORNING WILL VEER OUT OF THE EAST BY THE END OF THE
DAY FRIDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. EXPECT MARINE LAYER TO ADVECT
INLAND DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MARINE CLOUDS SHOULD
BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ WHERE BOTH
ONSHORE WINDS AROUND THE HIGH AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ARE GREATEST. KEPT
SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT THE 12Z NAM DOES DEPICT LIGHT PRECIP
FOR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. DO THINK THE NAM WAS TOO BULLISH REGARDING
RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON FRIDAY. FORECAST HIGHS
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE POCONOS TO MID 70S IN THE CENTRAL
DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT, WHICH
WILL INCREASE AN EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND IF THE MOISTURE IS DEEP
ENOUGH, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FOG/DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS AT
LEAST THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. THEREFORE WE HAVE
INTRODUCED PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG ACROSS THESE AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT, RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS WHICH WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA. A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY LIFT TO OUR NORTHWEST, BUT MAY
NOT PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR AREA TO BRING ANY EFFECTS. ALSO, THERE
IS A WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE SATURDAY, BUT WITH LIMITED
VERTICAL MOISTURE, WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION, SO FOR NOW WE KEEP IT DRY.

ON SUNDAY, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WE
DO NOT EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY
ON SUNDAY, BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY. SO WE WILL HAVE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA AND
TO THE WEST DURING THE DAY, BUT THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT WE
LOSE THE INSTABILITY BEFORE THE ACTIVITY REACHES OUR AREA. FOR NOW
WE WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL IT LOOKS LIKE WE
HAVE A BETTER SHOT OF INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITATION COINCIDING
WITH EACH OTHER.

ON MONDAY, THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT TO SEA, AND WHAT EVER
SHOWERS ARE LEFT OVER ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA WILL MOVE
AWAY WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, BEFORE A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. FOR NOW THE FRONT
LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE A MOSTLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THEN HIGH PRESSURE FULLY BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK, WHICH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TAFS WERE ISSUED AT 00Z. FOR THIS EVENING, SOME RESIDUAL
BORDERLINE LOW/MID LEVEL VFR CLOUDS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

OVERNIGHT THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE TAF SITES AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN WINDS FROM THE NORTH.
THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW RESIDUAL VFR CLOUDS AROUND. DO NOT
BELIEVE MVFR CIG IN WESTERN NY STATE WILL MAKE IT TO THE TAF SITES
(MAYBE THE POCONO AIRPORTS). NO FOG RESTRICTIONS.

ON FRIDAY, WINDS WILL BE SLOWLY VEERING FROM THE NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST AND SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. INLAND TERMINALS WITHOUT AN AFTERNOON FORECAST CHANGE
GROUP THE WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED IS THE AVERAGE FOR THE DAY.

WE ARE EXPECTING JUST SCATTERED VFR CUMULUS BASED CLOUDS. AT KACY
AND KMIV, A VFR CIG IS PREDICTED LATE. THIS IS CARRIED INTO KPHL
ON THE 30HR TAF DURING FRIDAY EVENING.


OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWER CIGS AND/OR VSBYS POSSIBLE TO MVFR LEVELS
OVERNIGHT WITHIN A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR DURING THE DAY. LOWER CIGS
AND/OR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN VFR
DURING THE DAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH RAIN AND LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY W-NW WINDS 15-20 KNOTS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
LONG PERIOD SWELLS GENERATED BY EDOUARD CONTINUE TO REACH THE NJ AND
DE COAST THIS AFTN (LATEST OBS SHOW 11-13 SEC WAVE PERIODS). SEAS
AND WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

NE WINDS VEER OUT OF THE EAST ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE 15-20
KT WITH ISOLATED GUSTS NEAR 25 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL ZONES. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO 5 FT DURING THIS
TIME OWING TO A LONG ONSHORE FETCH AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF MAINE. SCA WAS ISSUED FOR THESE ZONES.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT AS WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE EASTERLY FLOW.

SATURDAY...SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO SATURDAY, SO THE ADVISORY
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS, BUT WINDS MAY GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN AND
INCREASING WINDS. WINDS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
IN HOUSE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MODERATE RISK INTO FRIDAY FOR NJ/DE
FIRST BECAUSE OF RESIDUAL LONG PERIOD SWELLS GENERATED BY EDOUARD
AND THEN FOR THE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. ITS POSSIBLE THAT THE
RIP CURRENT RISK MIGHT BECOME HIGH BY THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ451>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLINE/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...GIGI






    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities