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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 260153
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
953 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure tracks north of the area through Sunday, then
slides off the coast Monday. A cold front moves across the region
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Quiet wx eve acrs FA as drying NE flo brings in sloly lwrg dewpts.
Remaining mnly SKC (other than psbl sct-bkn sc invof cstl SE VA-NE
NC). Lows mnly fm the u50s to m60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Dry / comfy Sunday and Sunday night with high pressure dominating.
E-NE flow keeps coastal areas between 75-80 with low to mid 80s
west of the Bay. Lows Sunday night in the upr 50s to mid 60s again.

The high moves offshore Monday resulting in a warmer SW. Moisture
from approaching cold front overspreads the region after 18z but
does not reach the coast until around 00z Monday. Dry through mid
afternoon with chc pops overspreading the area late. Highs in the
mid to upr 80s west of the bay...upr 70s to lwr 80s along the coast.

Models generally agree in increasing moisture across the area Monday
night as the front approaches from the west. The upper support and
jet axis remain well N/NW of the area, but enough lift noted for
likely pops from about I95 on west with chc pops to the east.
Thunder chc greatest during the evening hours. Warmer with lows in
the upr 60s to lwr 70s.

Models show the boundary will be slow to push across the region
Tuesday as the upper trough and associated cold front slowly moves
east. Will maintain high chc pops for now. Highs in the low to mid
80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Sfc cdfnt conts to be slo to push off the cst Tue ngt/Wed mrng as
upr lvl trough crosses the rgn. POPs lwrg only gradually W-E into
Wed aftn. Sfc hi pres crosses the FA Wed ngt into Thu...then
weakens. Broad upr lvl trough dominates Thu into Sat. Maintaining
POPs 20-30% Wed ngt through Thu ngt...then incrsg to 30-50% POPs
Fri into Sat. Highs each day in the l-m80s. Lows in the m60s-l70s
Tue ngt...l60s-arnd 70F Wed ngt...then mnly 65-70F Thu ngt/Fri
ngt.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure settles over the Mid Atlantic States during the 00Z
TAF period with mainly SKC. Still some MVFR ceilings at ECG
intermittently but satellite and models show improving trend and
should end by 01z. Have IFR fog at SBY 09-12z where extensive IFR
occurred this morning and winds will be the calmest. Elsewhere there
is presently little confidence in IFR mainly due to winds.

OUTLOOK...As various frontal systems affect the area...there will be
a chance for showers and thunderstorms begin late Monday and
continuing through the rest of the week. The best chances for
precipitation will be through Tuesday night with lower chances
following a cold frontal passage Wednesday through Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Northeast winds prevailed over the marine area late Saturday. Winds
and some seas were approaching SCA conditions in the lower Bay and
southern coastal waters but models indicate that winds will slowly
diminish during the course of the evening.

Generally quiet marine conditions can be expected for the next
several days. High pressure builds over the Mid Atlantic States with
diminishing through Sunday. A Lee side trough develops late Monday
with winds turning to the south and southwest. These winds continue
through Tuesday ahead of a cold front which approaches from the
northwest.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The James River at Bremo Bluff has fallen below flood stage and
will lower to below action stage overnight.

A flood warning is in effect for the James River at Richmond
Westham. It is forecast to reach around 12.5 feet overnight and
to fall back to below flood stage late Sunday morning. See FLWAKQ
for details.

&&

.CLIMATE...
June has been another wet month at Richmond, the monthly total
rainfall through the 24th stands at 6.92" and already makes this
the 9th wettest June on record (2004 is wettest June with 9.93").

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...ALB/JAO
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...LSA/JAO
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...



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000
FXUS61 KPHI 260148
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
948 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain across the area through Sunday. A low
pressure system will move across Canada early next week. It will
cause a weakening cold front to cross the area Tuesday. The front
will stall across the area through Wednesday. More high pressure
will build over the area late next week. Another disturbance will
approach the area early next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Surface High pressure remains across the region this evening.
Skies have cleared out and winds have really started to lighten
up so far this evening. These conditions will continue through the
night.

Lows will drop into the 50`s outside of the Philadelphia area, as
temperatures quickly fall this evening. The Pine Barrens, Lehigh
Valley and portions of North- Central New Jersey will likely see
low temperatures fall a few degrees below what guidance sets such
as the MET and MAV indicate based on the radiational cooling.

Winds will remain light with the high pressure system over us,
and as RH values increase overnight some patchy fog may form
briefly just before sunrise but burn off rather quickly once the
sun comes up.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
The high pressure system will continue building east and out of the
region by days end. As a result, winds will increase by the
afternoon from a more southerly direction around 10 mph at times.
Similar to today, modeled two meter temperatures and various
guidance sets such as the MET and MAV will likely be to low with
temperatures given the modeled boundary layer temperatures and dry
conditions across northern portions of our region. The Lehigh Valley
looks to be warmest, near 90 once again with the locations near the
shore in the 70`s and 80`s.   No precipitation is in the forecast
with the high pressure system nearby.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Fair weather will continue over the area Sunday night and into
Monday. The upper ridge will be weakening over the area and sfc high
pressure will be moving offshore. It will be a mild evening and warm
day Monday with temperatures above normal. A couple tstms may
develop across PA and affect the most n/w areas Mon afternoon. We
just have some small pops over the srn Poconos.

A period of wet weather is expected Mon night thru Wed morning. A
weakening cold front will slide across the area Tue and then stall
across the area Tue night and Wed. This front will serve to focus
showers and sct tstms across these areas. We will mention the
possibility of some heavy rain in the HWO for Tue and Tue night.
Temperatures for this period will be mostly near normal with the
abundant clouds expected.

For Wed night into Thu...High pressure will begin to make it`s way
back over the area. We will have mostly dry or slgt chc pops for
these periods. Temperatures will be near normal with highs in the
low/mid 80s over the area.

Another h5 trough will move out of Canada late next week. A cold
front will move towards the area at that time. Scattered showers
and tstms will develop ahead of this feature. We will have chc pops
in the fcst for these periods.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight: Mainly VFR conditions across the terminals. Winds will
remain calm to light. Potential for some patchy ground fog to
create brief MVFR vsby restrictions between 06-10z at KRDG and
KMIV.

Sunday: VFR conditions expected. Light winds will continue through
mid-morning, then pick up out of the south at around 10 knots or
less.

Outlook...
Sun night and Mon...VFR. A few tstms possible far n/w Mon afternoon.
Mon night thru Wed...Scattered showers and tstms with lower
  conditions possible.
Wed night thru Thu night...Mostly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Waveheights have struggled today to reach the four to feet
forecasted by wavewatch on previous cycles. Seas are currently
around three feet and will remain around that level through the
night with east-southeasterly winds around or under 10 knots. No
headlines.

Sunday: Similar to tonight, seas are expected to be around three
feet through the day with winds from the southeast at around 10
knots. No headlines.

Outlook...
We are looking at a period of mostly sub-sca conditions on the
waters this upcoming week. There will be two periods of showers and
tstms which will affect local winds/seas. The first period is Mon
night thru Wed and the other is Friday and into early next weekend.
Seas on the ocean will be mostly 2 to 4 ft thru the period.


RIP CURRENTS...
Light southerly winds will continue across the waters through
Sunday. We have issued a low risk for rip currents on Sunday.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...O`Hara
Near Term...Gaines/Meola
Short Term...Gaines
Long Term...O`Hara
Aviation...Gaines/Meola/O`Hara
Marine...Gaines/Meola/O`Hara



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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 260110
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
910 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and dry weather is expected through the weekend. A weak
frontal system will bring a chance for showers and storms Sunday
night and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A dome of high pressure overhead from the eastern Great Lakes to
the coast of the Northeast will continue to result in subsidence
ruling the overnight. This should continue to force cumulus
continue to fade now that peak heating has passed and the sun is
setting. A clear overnight should be the result. Dewpoints have
already begun to increase a bit, so lows will likely remain just a
tad above the levels experienced last night. However, the much
more muggy and hot weather will begin to be felt fairly quickly
after tonight. Fries

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Dry and very warm Sunday as strong high pressure remains over the
area.

Shower and thunderstorms chances return Sunday night and through
the first half of Monday, as a weak cold front approaches and
passes through the area. At this time, will leave in the mention
of thunder, although lack of instability, time of day, and lack of
cold air advection behind the boundary will be a hindrance toward
the development of convection.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Uppper troughing will slowly become the norm over the region from
mid-week onward. This is likely to trend temperatures back toward
and eventually below normal through the week into next weekend.
However, without any significant push of humid and unstable air,
conditions should be more quiet than they have been recently.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions with diurnal cu are expected through Sunday under
high pressure.

.OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Shower and thunderstorm restrictions are possible with a Sunday
night/Monday cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$



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000
FXUS61 KLWX 260037 AAA
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
837 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build overhead through Sunday. High pressure
will move off the coast Sunday night. A cold front will move
through the region late Tuesday into Tuesday night. The boundary
will remain nearby during the middle and latter portions of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Tranquil weather under building high pressure. Lows around 60
except upper 60s near the water. Stellar day again tomorrow with
plenty of sunshine and low humidities. Moisture returns Mon for a
risk of showers and t-storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
No rain chances Sunday or Sunday night as high pressure controls
the weather in the Mid Atlantic. Highs in the mid 80s will be a
degree or two below climo norms. Sunday night will see lows around
60 with the exception of the warmer cities.

High pressure continues to control weather in the NE US Monday
morning. An approaching cold front...something not always seen at
this time of year..will moving into WV Monday afternoon. This may
serve as a trigger for thunserstorms in the western part of the
forecast area. SPC has placed the western 1/2 of the area in a
marginal risk. CAPEs are not overly impressive in model soundings...
nor is the wind field. At the moment pulse severe seems the most
likely.

With the boundary slowly migrating across the area Monday night
there will be chances for thnderstorms Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Given the time of year it wouldn`t surprise me if the cold front
slated to pass through the region Monday night got hung up over the
eastern half of the area. The upper-level jet will be a little
stronger so any convection that fires will have some shear to work
with on Tuesday. The ECMWF actually keeps the front stalled over the
area through Wednesday.

Whenever the front slides offshore/weakens, high pressure and
seasonably cooler temperatures will follow in its wake and
likely persist through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the evening hours. Light pre-dawn
fog will be possible at MRB..and CHO. No problems expected at
airports Sunday through Monday morning. Showers/thunderstorms
possible later Monday afternoon and night.

Sub-VFR possible in any scattered showers or thunderstorms
Tuesday into Wednesday (depends if the cold front clears the area or
not). Winds ahead of the front will be southerly around 10 knots,
then become westerly sometime Wednesday after the front passes.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds expected to remain below SCA values through Monday.
Thunderstorms will be possible Monday evening/night on the
waters.

Southerly channeling with Small Craft Advisory level wind gusts
will remain possible as long as the cold front remains to the west
of the area Tuesday into Wednesday. A period of westerly winds
gusting to Small Craft Advisory levels are possible behind the
front as well.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ABW
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...ABW
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...LFR
MARINE...LFR/ABW




000
FXUS61 KLWX 260037 AAA
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
837 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build overhead through Sunday. High pressure
will move off the coast Sunday night. A cold front will move
through the region late Tuesday into Tuesday night. The boundary
will remain nearby during the middle and latter portions of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Tranquil weather under building high pressure. Lows around 60
except upper 60s near the water. Stellar day again tomorrow with
plenty of sunshine and low humidities. Moisture returns Mon for a
risk of showers and t-storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
No rain chances Sunday or Sunday night as high pressure controls
the weather in the Mid Atlantic. Highs in the mid 80s will be a
degree or two below climo norms. Sunday night will see lows around
60 with the exception of the warmer cities.

High pressure continues to control weather in the NE US Monday
morning. An approaching cold front...something not always seen at
this time of year..will moving into WV Monday afternoon. This may
serve as a trigger for thunserstorms in the western part of the
forecast area. SPC has placed the western 1/2 of the area in a
marginal risk. CAPEs are not overly impressive in model soundings...
nor is the wind field. At the moment pulse severe seems the most
likely.

With the boundary slowly migrating across the area Monday night
there will be chances for thnderstorms Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Given the time of year it wouldn`t surprise me if the cold front
slated to pass through the region Monday night got hung up over the
eastern half of the area. The upper-level jet will be a little
stronger so any convection that fires will have some shear to work
with on Tuesday. The ECMWF actually keeps the front stalled over the
area through Wednesday.

Whenever the front slides offshore/weakens, high pressure and
seasonably cooler temperatures will follow in its wake and
likely persist through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the evening hours. Light pre-dawn
fog will be possible at MRB..and CHO. No problems expected at
airports Sunday through Monday morning. Showers/thunderstorms
possible later Monday afternoon and night.

Sub-VFR possible in any scattered showers or thunderstorms
Tuesday into Wednesday (depends if the cold front clears the area or
not). Winds ahead of the front will be southerly around 10 knots,
then become westerly sometime Wednesday after the front passes.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds expected to remain below SCA values through Monday.
Thunderstorms will be possible Monday evening/night on the
waters.

Southerly channeling with Small Craft Advisory level wind gusts
will remain possible as long as the cold front remains to the west
of the area Tuesday into Wednesday. A period of westerly winds
gusting to Small Craft Advisory levels are possible behind the
front as well.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ABW
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...ABW
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...LFR
MARINE...LFR/ABW




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 260017
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
817 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure tracks north of the area tonight and Sunday, then
slides off the coast Monday. A cold front moves across the region
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
High pressure builds into the region from the north. Early evening
clouds (and isolated pops across North Carolina) are expected to
dissipate leading to a mstly clr night ahead. Patchy fog will be
possible in areas away from the water given the cooler airmass and
light onshore flow. Lows in the upr 50s - mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Dry / comfy Sunday and Sunday night with high pressure dominating.
E-NE flow keeps coastal areas between 75-80 with low to mid 80s
west of the Bay. Lows Sunday night in the upr 50s to mid 60s again.

The high moves offshore Monday resulting in a warmer SW. Moisture
from approaching cold front overspreads the region after 18z but
does not reach the coast until around 00z Monday. Dry through mid
afternoon with chc pops overspreading the area late. Highs in the
mid to upr 80s west of the bay...upr 70s to lwr 80s along the coast.

Models generally agree in increasing moisture across the area Monday
night as the front approaches from the west. The upper support and
jet axis remain well N/NW of the area, but enough lift noted for
likely pops from about I95 on west with chc pops to the east.
Thunder chc greatest during the evening hours. Warmer with lows in
the upr 60s to lwr 70s.

Models show the boundary will be slow to push across the region
Tuesday as the upper trough and associated cold front slowly moves
east. Will maintain high chc pops for now. Highs in the low to mid
80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Sfc cdfnt conts to be slo to push off the cst Tue ngt/Wed mrng as
upr lvl trough crosses the rgn. POPs lwrg only gradually W-E into
Wed aftn. Sfc hi pres crosses the FA Wed ngt into Thu...then
weakens. Broad upr lvl trough dominates Thu into Sat. Maintaining
POPs 20-30% Wed ngt through Thu ngt...then incrsg to 30-50% POPs
Fri into Sat. Highs each day in the l-m80s. Lows in the m60s-l70s
Tue ngt...l60s-arnd 70F Wed ngt...then mnly 65-70F Thu ngt/Fri
ngt.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure settles over the Mid Atlantic States during the 00Z
TAF period with mainly SKC. Still some MVFR ceilings at ECG
intermittently but satellite and models show improving trend and
should end by 01z. Have IFR fog at SBY 09-12z where extensive IFR
occurred this morning and winds will be the calmest. Elsewhere there
is presently little confidence in IFR mainly due to winds.

OUTLOOK...As various frontal systems affect the area...there will be
a chance for showers and thunderstorms begin late Monday and
continuing through the rest of the week. The best chances for
precipitation will be through Tuesday night with lower chances
following a cold frontal passage Wednesday through Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Northeast winds prevailed over the marine area late Saturday. Winds
and some seas were approaching SCA conditions in the lower Bay and
southern coastal waters but models indicate that winds will slowly
diminish during the course of the evening.

Generally quiet marine conditions can be expected for the next
several days. High pressure builds over the Mid Atlantic States with
diminishing through Sunday. A Lee side trough develops late Monday
with winds turning to the south and southwest. These winds continue
through Tuesday ahead of a cold front which approaches from the
northwest.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The James River at Bremo Bluff has fallen below flood stage and
will lower to below action stage overnight.

A flood warning is in effect for the James River at Richmond
Westham. It is forecast to reach around 12.5 feet overnight and
to fall back to below flood stage late Sunday morning. See FLWAKQ
for details.

&&

.CLIMATE...
June has been another wet month at Richmond, the monthly total
rainfall through the 24th stands at 6.92" and already makes this
the 9th wettest June on record (2004 is wettest June with 9.93").

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...ALB/JAO
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...LSA/JAO
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 260017
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
817 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure tracks north of the area tonight and Sunday, then
slides off the coast Monday. A cold front moves across the region
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
High pressure builds into the region from the north. Early evening
clouds (and isolated pops across North Carolina) are expected to
dissipate leading to a mstly clr night ahead. Patchy fog will be
possible in areas away from the water given the cooler airmass and
light onshore flow. Lows in the upr 50s - mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Dry / comfy Sunday and Sunday night with high pressure dominating.
E-NE flow keeps coastal areas between 75-80 with low to mid 80s
west of the Bay. Lows Sunday night in the upr 50s to mid 60s again.

The high moves offshore Monday resulting in a warmer SW. Moisture
from approaching cold front overspreads the region after 18z but
does not reach the coast until around 00z Monday. Dry through mid
afternoon with chc pops overspreading the area late. Highs in the
mid to upr 80s west of the bay...upr 70s to lwr 80s along the coast.

Models generally agree in increasing moisture across the area Monday
night as the front approaches from the west. The upper support and
jet axis remain well N/NW of the area, but enough lift noted for
likely pops from about I95 on west with chc pops to the east.
Thunder chc greatest during the evening hours. Warmer with lows in
the upr 60s to lwr 70s.

Models show the boundary will be slow to push across the region
Tuesday as the upper trough and associated cold front slowly moves
east. Will maintain high chc pops for now. Highs in the low to mid
80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Sfc cdfnt conts to be slo to push off the cst Tue ngt/Wed mrng as
upr lvl trough crosses the rgn. POPs lwrg only gradually W-E into
Wed aftn. Sfc hi pres crosses the FA Wed ngt into Thu...then
weakens. Broad upr lvl trough dominates Thu into Sat. Maintaining
POPs 20-30% Wed ngt through Thu ngt...then incrsg to 30-50% POPs
Fri into Sat. Highs each day in the l-m80s. Lows in the m60s-l70s
Tue ngt...l60s-arnd 70F Wed ngt...then mnly 65-70F Thu ngt/Fri
ngt.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure settles over the Mid Atlantic States during the 00Z
TAF period with mainly SKC. Still some MVFR ceilings at ECG
intermittently but satellite and models show improving trend and
should end by 01z. Have IFR fog at SBY 09-12z where extensive IFR
occurred this morning and winds will be the calmest. Elsewhere there
is presently little confidence in IFR mainly due to winds.

OUTLOOK...As various frontal systems affect the area...there will be
a chance for showers and thunderstorms begin late Monday and
continuing through the rest of the week. The best chances for
precipitation will be through Tuesday night with lower chances
following a cold frontal passage Wednesday through Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Northeast winds prevailed over the marine area late Saturday. Winds
and some seas were approaching SCA conditions in the lower Bay and
southern coastal waters but models indicate that winds will slowly
diminish during the course of the evening.

Generally quiet marine conditions can be expected for the next
several days. High pressure builds over the Mid Atlantic States with
diminishing through Sunday. A Lee side trough develops late Monday
with winds turning to the south and southwest. These winds continue
through Tuesday ahead of a cold front which approaches from the
northwest.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The James River at Bremo Bluff has fallen below flood stage and
will lower to below action stage overnight.

A flood warning is in effect for the James River at Richmond
Westham. It is forecast to reach around 12.5 feet overnight and
to fall back to below flood stage late Sunday morning. See FLWAKQ
for details.

&&

.CLIMATE...
June has been another wet month at Richmond, the monthly total
rainfall through the 24th stands at 6.92" and already makes this
the 9th wettest June on record (2004 is wettest June with 9.93").

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...ALB/JAO
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...LSA/JAO
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 260004
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
804 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure tracks north of the area tonight and Sunday, then
slides off the coast Monday. A cold front moves across the region
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
High pressure builds into the region from the north. Early evening
clouds (and isolated pops across North Carolina) are expected to
dissipate leading to a mstly clr night ahead. Patchy fog will be
possible in areas away from the water given the cooler airmass and
light onshore flow. Lows in the upr 50s - mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Dry / comfy Sunday and Sunday night with high pressure dominating.
E-NE flow keeps coastal areas between 75-80 with low to mid 80s
west of the Bay. Lows Sunday night in the upr 50s to mid 60s again.

The high moves offshore Monday resulting in a warmer SW. Moisture
from approaching cold front overspreads the region after 18z but
does not reach the coast until around 00z Monday. Dry through mid
afternoon with chc pops overspreading the area late. Highs in the
mid to upr 80s west of the bay...upr 70s to lwr 80s along the coast.

Models generally agree in increasing moisture across the area Monday
night as the front approaches from the west. The upper support and
jet axis remain well N/NW of the area, but enough lift noted for
likely pops from about I95 on west with chc pops to the east.
Thunder chc greatest during the evening hours. Warmer with lows in
the upr 60s to lwr 70s.

Models show the boundary will be slow to push across the region
Tuesday as the upper trough and associated cold front slowly moves
east. Will maintain high chc pops for now. Highs in the low to mid
80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Sfc cdfnt conts to be slo to push off the cst Tue ngt/Wed mrng as
upr lvl trough crosses the rgn. POPs lwrg only gradually W-E into
Wed aftn. Sfc hi pres crosses the FA Wed ngt into Thu...then
weakens. Broad upr lvl trough dominates Thu into Sat. Maintaining
POPs 20-30% Wed ngt through Thu ngt...then incrsg to 30-50% POPs
Fri into Sat. Highs each day in the l-m80s. Lows in the m60s-l70s
Tue ngt...l60s-arnd 70F Wed ngt...then mnly 65-70F Thu ngt/Fri
ngt.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Some MVFR ceilings continue to linger across the region at 18Z
with clouds at 2000 to 3000 ft. The cold front has moved well
into the Carolinas and clouds will gradually lift and diminish
through the aftn/evening. High pressure will build into the area
during the overnight.

OUTLOOK...Dry weather is expected through the remainder of the
weekend, as hi pres sits just off the New England and Nrn Mid
Atlc cst. There will be a chance for showers and tstms late Mon
into Tue night, with pcpn ending fm west to east on Wed following
the passage of a cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL BE UPDATED

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The James River at Bremo Bluff crested around 20 ft early this
afternoon and is now falling. River Flood Warning continues until
the stage falls below 19 ft which is expected tonight. See FLSAKQ
for details.

The rapid rise at Richmond Westham is well underway with the
river rising almost one and a half feet per hour. Given these
trends and coord with the RFC...decided to go ahead and issue a
River Flood Warning for a stage expected to crest around 12.5 ft
Sunday morning. See FLWAKQ for details.

&&

.CLIMATE...
June has been another wet month at Richmond, the monthly total
rainfall through the 24th stands at 6.92" and already makes this
the 9th wettest June on record (2004 is wettest June with 9.93").

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...ALB/JAO
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...JAO
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 252302
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
702 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure tracks north of the area tonight and Sunday, then
slides off the coast Monday. A cold front moves across the region
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
High pressure builds into the region from the north. Early evening
clouds (and isolated pops across North Carolina) are expected to
dissipate leading to a mstly clr night ahead. Patchy fog will be
possible in areas away from the water given the cooler airmass and
light onshore flow. Lows in the upr 50s - mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Dry / comfy Sunday and Sunday night with high pressure dominating.
E-NE flow keeps coastal areas between 75-80 with low to mid 80s
west of the Bay. Lows Sunday night in the upr 50s to mid 60s again.

The high moves offshore Monday resulting in a warmer SW. Moisture
from approaching cold front overspreads the region after 18z but
does not reach the coast until around 00z Monday. Dry through mid
afternoon with chc pops overspreading the area late. Highs in the
mid to upr 80s west of the bay...upr 70s to lwr 80s along the coast.

Models generally agree in increasing moisture across the area Monday
night as the front approaches from the west. The upper support and
jet axis remain well N/NW of the area, but enough lift noted for
likely pops from about I95 on west with chc pops to the east.
Thunder chc greatest during the evening hours. Warmer with lows in
the upr 60s to lwr 70s.

Models show the boundary will be slow to push across the region
Tuesday as the upper trough and associated cold front slowly moves
east. Will maintain high chc pops for now. Highs in the low to mid
80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WILL BE UPDATED...

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Some MVFR ceilings continue to linger across the region at 18Z
with clouds at 2000 to 3000 ft. The cold front has moved well
into the Carolinas and clouds will gradually lift and diminish
through the aftn/evening. High pressure will build into the area
during the overnight.

OUTLOOK...Dry weather is expected through the remainder of the
weekend, as hi pres sits just off the New England and Nrn Mid
Atlc cst. There will be a chance for showers and tstms late Mon
into Tue night, with pcpn ending fm west to east on Wed following
the passage of a cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL BE UPDATED

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The James River at Bremo Bluff crested around 20 ft early this
afternoon and is now falling. River Flood Warning continues until
the stage falls below 19 ft which is expected tonight. See FLSAKQ
for details.

The rapid rise at Richmond Westham is well underway with the
river rising almost one and a half feet per hour. Given these
trends and coord with the RFC...decided to go ahead and issue a
River Flood Warning for a stage expected to crest around 12.5 ft
Sunday morning. See FLWAKQ for details.

&&

.CLIMATE...
June has been another wet month at Richmond, the monthly total
rainfall through the 24th stands at 6.92" and already makes this
the 9th wettest June on record (2004 is wettest June with 9.93").

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...JAO
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 252141
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
541 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and dry weather is expected through the weekend. A weak
frontal system will bring a chance for showers and storms Sunday
night and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A dome of high pressure overhead from the eastern Great Lakes to
the coast of the Northeast will continue to result in subsidence
ruling the overnight. This should force cumulus continue to fade
now that peak heating has passed and result in a clear overnight.
Dewpoints have already begun to increase a bit, so lows will
likely remain just a tad above the levels experienced last night.
However, the much more muggy and hot weather will begin to be felt
fairly quickly after tonight. Fries

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Dry and very warm Sunday as strong high pressure remains over the
area.

Shower and thunderstorms chances return Sunday night and through
the first half of Monday, as a weak cold front approaches and
passes through the area. At this time, will leave in the mention
of thunder, although lack of instability, time of day, and lack of
cold air advection behind the boundary will be a hindrance toward
the development of convection.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Uppper troughing will slowly become the norm over the region from
mid-week onward. This is likely to trend temperatures back toward
and eventually below normal through the week into next weekend.
However, without any significant push of humid and unstable air,
conditions should be more quiet than they have been recently.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions with diurnal cu are expected through Sunday under
high pressure.

.OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Shower and thunderstorm restrictions are possible with a Sunday
night/Monday cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 251945
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
345 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure tracks north of the area tonight and Sunday, then
slides off the coast Monday. A cold front moves across the region
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
High pressure builds into the region from the north. Early evening
clouds (and isolated pops across North Carolina) are expected to
dissipate leading to a mstly clr night ahead. Patchy fog will be
possible in areas away from the water given the cooler airmass and
light onshore flow. Lows in the upr 50s - mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Dry / comfy Sunday and Sunday night with high pressure dominating.
E-NE flow keeps coastal areas between 75-80 with low to mid 80s
west of the Bay. Lows Sunday night in the upr 50s to mid 60s again.

The high moves offshore Monday resulting in a warmer SW. Moisture
from approaching cold front overspreads the region after 18z but
does not reach the coast until around 00z Monday. Dry through mid
afternoon with chc pops overspreading the area late. Highs in the
mid to upr 80s west of the bay...upr 70s to lwr 80s along the coast.

Models generally agree in increasing moisture across the area Monday
night as the front approaches from the west. The upper support and
jet axis remain well N/NW of the area, but enough lift noted for
likely pops from about I95 on west with chc pops to the east.
Thunder chc greatest during the evening hours. Warmer with lows in
the upr 60s to lwr 70s.

Models show the boundary will be slow to push across the region
Tuesday as the upper trough and associated cold front slowly moves
east. Will maintain high chc pops for now. Highs in the low to mid
80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE FIRST OF TWO UPPER LOWS LIFTING ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC WHILE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO
TENNESSEE. MODELS ARE GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH
OF THE UPPER TROUGHS. A FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY
WITH LOW CHANCE POPS PROGRESSING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH COVERAGE
OR QPF. JUST MORE OF A WIND SHIFT ALONG WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER AIR FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WED GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THIS HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
REGION THU SUPPORTING CALMING WINDS AND WARMER HIGHS ON THU IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY WED-SAT THOUGH ANOTHER
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE
SEASONABLE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S NW TO MID-UPPER 50S SE THROUGH THE PERIOD. COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED AT THE END OF THE PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Some MVFR ceilings continue to linger across the region at 18Z
with clouds at 2000 to 3000 ft. The cold front has moved well
into the Carolinas and clouds will gradually lift and diminish
through the aftn/evening. High pressure will build into the area
during the overnight.

OUTLOOK...Dry weather is expected through the remainder of the
weekend, as hi pres sits just off the New England and Nrn Mid
Atlc cst. There will be a chance for showers and tstms late Mon
into Tue night, with pcpn ending fm west to east on Wed following
the passage of a cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WAS STARTED AT 1 PM IN THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES DUE TO GUSTY SW
WINDS RESULTING FROM MIXING. SW WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 15 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THE SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ANTICIPATION OF A COLD FRONT COMING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...BUT THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE WIND THIS
EVENING AS MIXING DECREASES JUST BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AGAIN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

WINDS TURN AROUND TO THE NNE AND INCREASE TO 15-25 KT SAT...
PERSISTING INTO EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE LOWER BAY AND SOUTHERN VA/NC
COASTAL WATERS. GIVEN FORECAST TIMING OF SEAS BUILDING ACROSS THE NC
WATERS LATER SAT MORNING WILL EXTEND THE SCA HEADLINE SOUTH TO
CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT. IF CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS HOLD, BRIEF PERIOD
OF SCA WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY FOR THE LOWER BAY AND
SRN COASTAL ZONES DEPENDING ON HOW FAST SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT.

FOR NEXT WEEK EXPECT A GRADUAL RETURN TO PREDOMINANT SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA FOR SUN AFTN/MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
COOL SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID- ATLC REGIONS,
WHILE SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A FRONT JUST OFF THE NC/SC
COAST, SLIDING NE OFFSHORE MONDAY THROUGH MON NIGHT. WINDS VEER TO
THE SSW TUESDAY AHEAD OF A SECOND, STRONGER COLD FRONT. THAT FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS LATER TUESDAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A
THIRD COLD FRONT LOOKS TO DROP SOUTH LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD
RESULT IN PERIODS OF SCA CONDITIONS TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The James River at Bremo Bluff crested around 20 ft early this
afternoon and is now falling. River Flood Warning continues until
the stage falls below 19 ft which is expected tonight. See FLSAKQ
for details.

The rapid rise at Richmond Westham is well underway with the
river rising almost one and a half feet per hour. Given these
trends and coord with the RFC...decided to go ahead and issue a
River Flood Warning for a stage expected to crest around 12.5 ft
Sunday morning. See FLWAKQ for details.

&&

.CLIMATE...
June has been another wet month at Richmond, the monthly total
rainfall through the 24th stands at 6.92" and already makes this
the 9th wettest June on record (2004 is wettest June with 9.93").

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...JAO
HYDROLOGY...MPR
CLIMATE...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 251945
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
345 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure tracks north of the area tonight and Sunday, then
slides off the coast Monday. A cold front moves across the region
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
High pressure builds into the region from the north. Early evening
clouds (and isolated pops across North Carolina) are expected to
dissipate leading to a mstly clr night ahead. Patchy fog will be
possible in areas away from the water given the cooler airmass and
light onshore flow. Lows in the upr 50s - mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Dry / comfy Sunday and Sunday night with high pressure dominating.
E-NE flow keeps coastal areas between 75-80 with low to mid 80s
west of the Bay. Lows Sunday night in the upr 50s to mid 60s again.

The high moves offshore Monday resulting in a warmer SW. Moisture
from approaching cold front overspreads the region after 18z but
does not reach the coast until around 00z Monday. Dry through mid
afternoon with chc pops overspreading the area late. Highs in the
mid to upr 80s west of the bay...upr 70s to lwr 80s along the coast.

Models generally agree in increasing moisture across the area Monday
night as the front approaches from the west. The upper support and
jet axis remain well N/NW of the area, but enough lift noted for
likely pops from about I95 on west with chc pops to the east.
Thunder chc greatest during the evening hours. Warmer with lows in
the upr 60s to lwr 70s.

Models show the boundary will be slow to push across the region
Tuesday as the upper trough and associated cold front slowly moves
east. Will maintain high chc pops for now. Highs in the low to mid
80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE FIRST OF TWO UPPER LOWS LIFTING ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC WHILE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO
TENNESSEE. MODELS ARE GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH
OF THE UPPER TROUGHS. A FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY
WITH LOW CHANCE POPS PROGRESSING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH COVERAGE
OR QPF. JUST MORE OF A WIND SHIFT ALONG WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER AIR FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WED GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THIS HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
REGION THU SUPPORTING CALMING WINDS AND WARMER HIGHS ON THU IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY WED-SAT THOUGH ANOTHER
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE
SEASONABLE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S NW TO MID-UPPER 50S SE THROUGH THE PERIOD. COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED AT THE END OF THE PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Some MVFR ceilings continue to linger across the region at 18Z
with clouds at 2000 to 3000 ft. The cold front has moved well
into the Carolinas and clouds will gradually lift and diminish
through the aftn/evening. High pressure will build into the area
during the overnight.

OUTLOOK...Dry weather is expected through the remainder of the
weekend, as hi pres sits just off the New England and Nrn Mid
Atlc cst. There will be a chance for showers and tstms late Mon
into Tue night, with pcpn ending fm west to east on Wed following
the passage of a cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WAS STARTED AT 1 PM IN THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES DUE TO GUSTY SW
WINDS RESULTING FROM MIXING. SW WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 15 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THE SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ANTICIPATION OF A COLD FRONT COMING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...BUT THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE WIND THIS
EVENING AS MIXING DECREASES JUST BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AGAIN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

WINDS TURN AROUND TO THE NNE AND INCREASE TO 15-25 KT SAT...
PERSISTING INTO EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE LOWER BAY AND SOUTHERN VA/NC
COASTAL WATERS. GIVEN FORECAST TIMING OF SEAS BUILDING ACROSS THE NC
WATERS LATER SAT MORNING WILL EXTEND THE SCA HEADLINE SOUTH TO
CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT. IF CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS HOLD, BRIEF PERIOD
OF SCA WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY FOR THE LOWER BAY AND
SRN COASTAL ZONES DEPENDING ON HOW FAST SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT.

FOR NEXT WEEK EXPECT A GRADUAL RETURN TO PREDOMINANT SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA FOR SUN AFTN/MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
COOL SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID- ATLC REGIONS,
WHILE SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A FRONT JUST OFF THE NC/SC
COAST, SLIDING NE OFFSHORE MONDAY THROUGH MON NIGHT. WINDS VEER TO
THE SSW TUESDAY AHEAD OF A SECOND, STRONGER COLD FRONT. THAT FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS LATER TUESDAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A
THIRD COLD FRONT LOOKS TO DROP SOUTH LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD
RESULT IN PERIODS OF SCA CONDITIONS TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The James River at Bremo Bluff crested around 20 ft early this
afternoon and is now falling. River Flood Warning continues until
the stage falls below 19 ft which is expected tonight. See FLSAKQ
for details.

The rapid rise at Richmond Westham is well underway with the
river rising almost one and a half feet per hour. Given these
trends and coord with the RFC...decided to go ahead and issue a
River Flood Warning for a stage expected to crest around 12.5 ft
Sunday morning. See FLWAKQ for details.

&&

.CLIMATE...
June has been another wet month at Richmond, the monthly total
rainfall through the 24th stands at 6.92" and already makes this
the 9th wettest June on record (2004 is wettest June with 9.93").

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...JAO
HYDROLOGY...MPR
CLIMATE...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KPHI 251852
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
252 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain across the area from tonight through
Sunday. A low pressure system will move across Canada early next
week. It will cause a weakening cold front to cross the area
Tuesday. The front will stall across the area through Wednesday.
More high pressure will build over the area late next week.
Another disturbance will approach the area early next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure in place allowing for a clear and cool night across
the region. Lows will drop into the 50`s outside of the Philadelphia
area, as temperatures quickly fall this evening. The Pine Barrens,
Lehigh Valley and portions of North-Central New Jersey will likely
see low temperatures fall a few degrees below what guidance sets
such as the MET and MAV indicate based on the radiational cooling.
Winds will be light with the high pressure system over us, as Rh
values increase overnight some patchy fog may form briefly just
before sunrise but burn off rather quickly once the sun comes up.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
The high pressure system will continue building east and out of the
region by days end. As a result, winds will increase by the
afternoon from a more southerly direction around 10 mph at times.
Similar to today, modeled two meter temperatures and various
guidance sets such as the MET and MAV will likely be to low with
temperatures given the modeled boundary layer temperatures and dry
conditions across northern portions of our region. The Lehigh Valley
looks to be warmest, near 90 once again with the locations near the
shore in the 70`s and 80`s.   No precipitation is in the forecast
with the high pressure system nearby.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Fair weather will continue over the area Sunday night and into
Monday. The upper ridge will be weakening over the area and sfc high
pressure will be moving offshore. It will be a mild evening and warm
day Monday with temperatures above normal. A couple tstms may
develop across PA and affect the most n/w areas Mon afternoon. We
just have some small pops over the srn Poconos.

A period of wet weather is expected Mon night thru Wed morning. A
weakening cold front will slide across the area Tue and then stall
across the area Tue night and Wed. This front will serve to focus
showers and sct tstms across these areas. We will mention the
possibility of some heavy rain in the HWO for Tue and Tue night.
Temperatures for this period will be mostly near normal with the
abundant clouds expected.

For Wed night into Thu...High pressure will begin to make it`s way
back over the area. We will have mostly dry or slgt chc pops for
these periods. Temperatures will be near normal with highs in the
low/mid 80s over the area.

Another h5 trough will move out of Canada late next week. A cold
front will move towards the area at that time. Scattered showers
and tstms will develop ahead of this feature. We will have chc pops
in the fcst for these periods.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight:  Mainly VFR, light winds. Potential for some patchy ground
fog to create brief MVFR vsby restrictions between 06 and 10z/26 at
KRDG and KMIV.

Sunday: VFR, light winds in the morning becoming more southerly at
or under 10 knots.

Outlook...
Sun night and Mon...VFR. A few tstms possible far n/w Mon afternoon.
Mon night thru Wed...Scattered showers and tstms with lower
  conditions possible.
Wed night thru Thu night...Mostly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Waveheights have struggled today to reach the four to feet
forecasted by wavewatch on previous cycles. Seas are currently
around three feet and will remain around that level through the
night with east-southeasterly winds around or under 10 knots. No
headlines.

Sunday: Similar to tonight, seas are expected to be around three
feet through the day with winds from the southeast at around 10
knots. No headlines.

Outlook...
We are looking at a period of mostly sub-sca conditions on the
waters this upcoming week. There will be two periods of showers and
tstms which will affect local winds/seas. The first period is Mon
night thru Wed and the other is Friday and into early next weekend.
Seas on the ocean will be mostly 2 to 4 ft thru the period.


RIP CURRENTS...
With a more easterly wind during the first half of the day and
having discussions with core partners will continue with moderate
risk for the remainder of the day today. Winds will be more
southerly and lighter tomorrow with seas decreasing a bit. As a
result, it is possibile tomorrow could feature a lower risk for rip
currents.

&&

CLIMATE...
In terms of the June 2016 monthly climate (as of 6/24) at
our big four long term climate sites, all have experienced
temperatures above normal and precipitation below normal,
except for Wilmington, with slightly above average precip.
The following table lists: normal average temperatures vs.
June 2016 average temperature and the resultant departure
from normal.

SITE    TEMPERATURE (F)       PRECIPITATION (IN)
----    ------------------    ---------------------
ACY     70.0 VS. 70.8 +0.8    2.51  VS  1.32  -1.19
PHL     72.5 VS. 73.7 +1.2    2.75  VS  1.24  -1.51
ILG     71.4 VS. 71.8 +0.4    3.10  VS  3.34  +0.24
ABE     68.4 VS. 70.5 +2.1    3.43  VS  1.37  -2.06

note: the above data represent the month through June 24.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...O`Hara
Near Term...Gaines
Short Term...Gaines
Long Term...O`Hara
Aviation...Gaines/O`Hara
Marine...Gaines/O`Hara
Climate...Franck




000
FXUS61 KLWX 251840
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
240 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure will build overhead through Sunday. High pressure
will move off the coast Sunday night. A cold front will move
through the region late Tuesday into Tuesday night. The boundary
will remain nearby during the middle and latter portions of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

Extremely pleasant weather this afternoon courtesy of high
pressure building into the area from the north. Clouds have been
slowly eroding/sinking to the SW but moisture is now banking up
against the Blue Ridge..keeping western 1/3 of the forecast area
under mostly cloudy skies. This is expected to continue to erode
tonight...leaving area clear and relatively cool for the latter
part of June. Lows in the lower 60s except upper 60s in the
cities.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

No rain chances Sunday or Sunday night as high pressure controls
the weather in the Mid Atlantic. Highs in the mid 80s will be a
degree or two below climo norms. Sunday night will see lows around
60 with the exception of the warmer cities.

High pressure continues to control weather in the NE US Monday
morning. An approaching cold front...something not always seen at
this time of year..will moving into WV Monday afternoon. This may
serve as a trigger for thunserstorms in the western part of the
forecast area. SPC has placed the western 1/2 of the area in a
marginal risk. CAPEs are not overly impressive in model soundings...
nor is the wind field. At the moment pulse severe seems the most
likely.

With the boundary slowly migrating across the area Monday night
there will be chances for thnderstorms Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Given the time of year it wouldn`t surprise me if the cold front
slated to pass through the region Monday night got hung up over the
eastern half of the area. The upper-level jet will be a little
stronger so any convection that fires will have some shear to work
with on Tuesday. The ECMWF actually keeps the front stalled over the
area through Wednesday.

Whenever the front slides offshore/weakens, high pressure and
seasonably cooler temperatures will follow in its wake and
likely persist through the end of the week.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

VFR conditions expected through the evening hours. Light pre-dawn
fog will be possible at IAD..MRB..and CHO. No problems expected at
airports Sunday through Monday morning. Showers/thunderstorms
possible later Monday afternoon and night.

Sub-VFR possible in any scattered showers or thunderstorms
Tuesday into Wednesday (depends if the cold front clears the area or
not). Winds ahead of the front will be southerly around 10 knots,
then become westerly sometime Wednesday after the front passes.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds expected to remain below SCA values through Monday.
Thunderstorms will be possible Monday evening/night on the
waters.

Southerly channeling with Small Craft Advisory level wind gusts
will remain possible as long as the cold front remains to the west
of the area Tuesday into Wednesday. A period of westerly winds
gusting to Small Craft Advisory levels are possible behind the
front as well.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/DFH




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251831
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
231 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and dry weather is expected through the weekend. A weak
frontal system will bring a chance for showers and storms Sunday
night and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A dome of high pressure overhead from the eastern Great Lakes to
the coast of the Northeast will continue to result in subsidence
ruling the overnight. This should force cumulus to rapidly fade
with sunset and result in a clear overnight. Dewpoints have
already begun to increase a bit, so lows will likely remain just a
tad above the levels experienced last night. However, the much
more muggy and hot weather will begin to be felt fairly quickly
after tonight. Fries

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Dry and very warm Sunday as strong high pressure remains over the
area.

Shower and thunderstorms chances return Sunday night and through
the first half of Monday, as a weak cold front approaches and
passes through the area. At this time, will leave in the mention
of thunder, although lack of instability, time of day, and lack of
cold air advection behind the boundary will be a hindrance toward
the development of convection.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Uppper troughing will slowly become the norm over the region from
mid-week onward. This is likely to trend temperatures back toward
and eventually below normal through the week into next weekend.
However, without any significant push of humid and unstable air,
conditions should be more quiet than they have been recently.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Some very isolated MVFR conditions with stratocumulus clouds over
our northern terminals for the rest of this afternoon. High
pressure will continue to build over the terminals through Sunday
providing VFR and dry conditions coupled with light and variable
winds.

.OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Restrictions are possible with a Sunday night/Monday cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251831
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
231 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and dry weather is expected through the weekend. A weak
frontal system will bring a chance for showers and storms Sunday
night and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A dome of high pressure overhead from the eastern Great Lakes to
the coast of the Northeast will continue to result in subsidence
ruling the overnight. This should force cumulus to rapidly fade
with sunset and result in a clear overnight. Dewpoints have
already begun to increase a bit, so lows will likely remain just a
tad above the levels experienced last night. However, the much
more muggy and hot weather will begin to be felt fairly quickly
after tonight. Fries

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Dry and very warm Sunday as strong high pressure remains over the
area.

Shower and thunderstorms chances return Sunday night and through
the first half of Monday, as a weak cold front approaches and
passes through the area. At this time, will leave in the mention
of thunder, although lack of instability, time of day, and lack of
cold air advection behind the boundary will be a hindrance toward
the development of convection.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Uppper troughing will slowly become the norm over the region from
mid-week onward. This is likely to trend temperatures back toward
and eventually below normal through the week into next weekend.
However, without any significant push of humid and unstable air,
conditions should be more quiet than they have been recently.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Some very isolated MVFR conditions with stratocumulus clouds over
our northern terminals for the rest of this afternoon. High
pressure will continue to build over the terminals through Sunday
providing VFR and dry conditions coupled with light and variable
winds.

.OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Restrictions are possible with a Sunday night/Monday cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 251752
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
152 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary pushes south of the area this morning. High
pressure will slowly build in from the north this afternoon and
will settle over the region tonight through Sunday. The high will
slide off the coast on Monday, as the next cold front approaches
from the west. That front will move into the region Monday night
into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Slow clearing continues from the NE as the front settles farther
south into the Carolinas this afternoon. Little if any activity
seen on radar attm, but kept isltd pops in this afternoon from the
VA/NC border on south per latest high res models and available
instability. Should see increasing amounts of sunshine north to
south as the afternoon wears on. N-NE flow keeps in cool with
highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

For tonight, some clouds may persist into the evening acrs the
far south, but should see mainly clear conditions all areas
overnight. Cooler/drier airmass to prevail as sfc high pressure
ridges SSW from the NE CONUS. Expect lows in the upper 50s to mid
60s most areas. Patchy fog will be possible, especially if clouds
linger today and the wet ground that is prevalent in some areas
has little time to dry out before the clearing arrives.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mostly sunny Sunday as high pressure dominates. Continued onshore
flow keeps it coolest at the beaches. Highs low to mid 80s west of
the Ches Bay, 75-80 F along the coast. Mostly clear Sunday night.
Lows in the 60s.

Models continue a bit slower with the next front early next week.
Moisture ahead of it does not really increase until after
18z...so expect a dry first half of the day with sct convection
developing across the NW zones after 18z, and gradually pushing SE
through 00Z/Tue. Highs in the mid-upper 80s except upr70s to lwr-
mid 80s at the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Chances for showers/tstms increase to 40-60% Mon night as the
front gets closer to the area and brings an increase in lift and
moisture to the region. Will continue with a chance for showers
and thunderstorms across the entire area into Tuesday with the
lee trough/front slow to push through the region. The upper
support and jet axis generally stays well N/NW of the area, and as
such do not expect much in the way of severe weather Monday night
(latest SPC outlook brings a marginal risk into Nw portions of the
CWA). The upper trough and associated cold front slowly moves
across the area Tuesday into Tuesday night. This will allow for
chances for showers and thunderstorms to persist into Tuesday
evening. Drier and cooler weather expected for Thursday as high
pressure builds across the area in Northerly flow. With the front
being just south of the area, will need to bring back a small
chance for showers and storms on Friday as the ECMWF and the GFS
suggest that a wave will develop along the front and allow
moisture to return to the area.

Tuesday will likely see temps around normal in the mid-upper 80s
before dropping back into the low-mid 80s for Wed-Fri.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Some MVFR ceilings continue to linger across the region at 18Z
with clouds at 2000 to 3000 ft. The cold front has moved well
into the Carolinas and clouds will gradually lift and diminish
through the aftn/evening. High pressure will build into the area
during the overnight.

OUTLOOK...Dry weather is expected through the remainder of the
weekend, as hi pres sits just off the New England and Nrn Mid
Atlc cst. There will be a chance for showers and tstms late Mon
into Tue night, with pcpn ending fm west to east on Wed following
the passage of a cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will push s of the waters and down thru the Carolina`s
during today, allowing hi pres and NNE winds 10 to 20 kt to
develop ovr the area. Waves will bld to 2 to 3 ft ovr the Ches Bay
and Seas will bld to 3 to 4 ft ovr the cstl waters. Winds will
diminish on Sun, as the high blds acrs the area, then lee
troughiness will allow for the winds to turn s-sw on Mon into
Tue before the next cold front passes through Tue Night into Wed
morng. Overall, the expectation is that conditions will remain
below small craft advisory criteria through the next 5 days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
River Flood Warning continues for the James River at Bremo Bluff
with the water level now above flood stage. Updated forecast to
have a later and higher crest this afternoon before dropping back
below flood stage this evening. See FLSAKQ for details.

The latest guid has Richmond Westham cresting about 1/2 foot below
flood stage Sunday morning. Will cont to monitor the level but a
flood warning is not expected at this time.

&&

.CLIMATE...
June has been another wet month at Richmond, the monthly total
rainfall through the 24th stands at 6.92" and already makes this
the 9th wettest June on record (2004 is wettest June with 9.93").

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...TMG/JEF
MARINE...TMG/JEF
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 251720
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
120 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary pushes south of the area this morning. High
pressure will slowly build in from the north this afternoon and
will settle over the region tonight through Sunday. The high will
slide off the coast on Monday, as the next cold front approaches
from the west. That front will move into the region Monday night
into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Slow clearing continues from the NE as the front settles farther
south into the Carolinas this afternoon. Little if any activity
seen on radar attm, but kept isltd pops in this afternoon from the
VA/NC border on south per latest high res models and available
instability. Should see increasing amounts of sunshine north to
south as the afternoon wears on. N-NE flow keeps in cool with
highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

For tonight, some clouds may persist into the evening acrs the
far south, but should see mainly clear conditions all areas
overnight. Cooler/drier airmass to prevail as sfc high pressure
ridges SSW from the NE CONUS. Expect lows in the upper 50s to mid
60s most areas. Patchy fog will be possible, especially if clouds
linger today and the wet ground that is prevalent in some areas
has little time to dry out before the clearing arrives.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mostly sunny Sunday as high pressure dominates. Continued onshore
flow keeps it coolest at the beaches. Highs low to mid 80s west of
the Ches Bay, 75-80 F along the coast. Mostly clear Sunday night.
Lows in the 60s.

Models continue a bit slower with the next front early next week.
Moisture ahead of it does not really increase until after
18z...so expect a dry first half of the day with sct convection
developing across the NW zones after 18z, and gradually pushing SE
through 00Z/Tue. Highs in the mid-upper 80s except upr70s to lwr-
mid 80s at the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Chances for showers/tstms increase to 40-60% Mon night as the
front gets closer to the area and brings an increase in lift and
moisture to the region. Will continue with a chance for showers
and thunderstorms across the entire area into Tuesday with the
lee trough/front slow to push through the region. The upper
support and jet axis generally stays well N/NW of the area, and as
such do not expect much in the way of severe weather Monday night
(latest SPC outlook brings a marginal risk into Nw portions of the
CWA). The upper trough and associated cold front slowly moves
across the area Tuesday into Tuesday night. This will allow for
chances for showers and thunderstorms to persist into Tuesday
evening. Drier and cooler weather expected for Thursday as high
pressure builds across the area in Northerly flow. With the front
being just south of the area, will need to bring back a small
chance for showers and storms on Friday as the ECMWF and the GFS
suggest that a wave will develop along the front and allow
moisture to return to the area.

Tuesday will likely see temps around normal in the mid-upper 80s
before dropping back into the low-mid 80s for Wed-Fri.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 06Z, a cold front was dropping to the VA/NC border with sctd
showers and isltd tstms associated with the boundary. The front
will push swrd thru the Carolina`s during today, allowing hi pres
and NNE winds with drier air to filter into the region. Expect
MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilties initially thru abt 14Z/15Z at
the taf sites, then VFR conditions after 17Z/18Z and continuing
into tngt.

OUTLOOK...Dry weather is expected through the weekend, as hi pres
sits just off the New England and Nrn Mid Atlc cst. Additional
restrictions to visibilities and ceilings will be possible once
again Sun morng. There will be a chance for showers and tstms
late Mon into Tue night, with pcpn ending fm west to east on
Wed following the passage of a cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will push s of the waters and down thru the Carolina`s
during today, allowing hi pres and NNE winds 10 to 20 kt to
develop ovr the area. Waves will bld to 2 to 3 ft ovr the Ches Bay
and Seas will bld to 3 to 4 ft ovr the cstl waters. Winds will
diminish on Sun, as the high blds acrs the area, then lee
troughiness will allow for the winds to turn s-sw on Mon into
Tue before the next cold front passes through Tue Night into Wed
morng. Overall, the expectation is that conditions will remain
below small craft advisory criteria through the next 5 days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
River Flood Warning continues for the James River at Bremo Bluff
with the water level now above flood stage. Updated forecast to
have a later and higher crest this afternoon before dropping back
below flood stage this evening. See FLSAKQ for details.

The latest guid has Richmond Westham cresting about 1/2 foot below
flood stage Sunday morning. Will cont to monitor the level but a
flood warning is not expected at this time.

&&

.CLIMATE...
June has been another wet month at Richmond, the monthly total
rainfall through the 24th stands at 6.92" and already makes this
the 9th wettest June on record (2004 is wettest June with 9.93").

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251703
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
103 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and dry weather is expected through the weekend. A weak
frontal system will bring a chance for showers and storms Sunday
night and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Dry and very warm today as high pressure brings fair weather over
the Upper Ohio Valley. Sunshine and a strong push of warmer air
aloft will result in temperatures above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Dry and very warm Sunday as strong high pressure remains over the
area.

Shower and thunderstorms chances return Sunday night and through
the first half of Monday, as a weak cold front approaches and
passes through the area. At this time, will leave in the mention
of thunder, although lack of instability, time of day, and lack of
cold air advection behind the boundary will be a hindrance toward
the development of convection.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Brief respite from rain later Monday, before a second cold front
sweeps through the area Monday night. Models are not showing much
activity with the second front, but it will usher in cooler air
Tuesday and Wednesday. High pressure will provide a dry and
seasonable end to the week.

&&


.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Some very isolated MVFR conditions with stratocumulus clouds over our
northern terminals for the rest of this afternoon. High
pressure will continue to build over the terminals through Sunday
providing VFR and dry conditions coupled with light and variable
winds.

.OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Restrictions are possible with a Sunday night/Monday cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251703
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
103 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and dry weather is expected through the weekend. A weak
frontal system will bring a chance for showers and storms Sunday
night and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Dry and very warm today as high pressure brings fair weather over
the Upper Ohio Valley. Sunshine and a strong push of warmer air
aloft will result in temperatures above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Dry and very warm Sunday as strong high pressure remains over the
area.

Shower and thunderstorms chances return Sunday night and through
the first half of Monday, as a weak cold front approaches and
passes through the area. At this time, will leave in the mention
of thunder, although lack of instability, time of day, and lack of
cold air advection behind the boundary will be a hindrance toward
the development of convection.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Brief respite from rain later Monday, before a second cold front
sweeps through the area Monday night. Models are not showing much
activity with the second front, but it will usher in cooler air
Tuesday and Wednesday. High pressure will provide a dry and
seasonable end to the week.

&&


.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Some very isolated MVFR conditions with stratocumulus clouds over our
northern terminals for the rest of this afternoon. High
pressure will continue to build over the terminals through Sunday
providing VFR and dry conditions coupled with light and variable
winds.

.OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Restrictions are possible with a Sunday night/Monday cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251640
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1240 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and dry weather is expected through the weekend. A weak
frontal system will bring a chance for showers and storms Sunday
night and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Dry and very warm today as high pressure brings fair weather over
the Upper Ohio Valley. Sunshine and a strong push of warmer air
aloft will result in temperatures above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Dry and very warm Sunday as strong high pressure remains over the
area.

Shower and thunderstorms chances return Sunday night and through
the first half of Monday, as a weak cold front approaches and
passes through the area. At this time, will leave in the mention
of thunder, although lack of instability, time of day, and lack of
cold air advection behind the boundary will be a hindrance toward
the development of convection.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Brief respite from rain later Monday, before a second cold front
sweeps through the area Monday night. Models are not showing much
activity with the second front, but it will usher in cooler air
Tuesday and Wednesday. High pressure will provide a dry and
seasonable end to the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions today. Expect less fog sunday morning with another
day of drying. Winds will be light.

.OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Restrictions are possible with a Sunday night/Monday cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KLWX 251430
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1030 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build overhead this morning and remain in
place through Sunday. High pressure will move off the coast Sunday
night. A cold front will move through the region late Tuesday
into Tuesday night. The boundary will remain nearby during the
middle and latter portions of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Visible satellite shows the contrast of clear to cloudy - the
lower Potomac arcing into Carroll County. This is slowly working
westward as high pressure builds into the region from the NE.

Clouds will give way to sunshine from northeast to southwest.
Most areas will be dry this afternoon with plenty of sunshine.
However...it may take til around mid-afternoon for sunshine to
increase across portions of central Virginia into the Potomac
Highlands. Max temps will range from the lower 70s in the
mountains to the lower and middle 80s across most other locations.

High pressure will remain overhead tonight. More dry conditions
are expected along with mainly clear skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The high will continue to dominate the weather pattern Sunday
allowing for plenty of sunshine along with seasonably warm
conditions and low humidity. Dewpoints will be in the 50s to
lower 60s.

The high will weaken and move out to sea Sunday night into Monday.
A return southerly flow will develop during this time. An upper-
level disturbance will also approach the area Sunday night before
passing through Monday. Sunday night should turn out dry and
comfortable...but moisture will increase Monday due to the
southerly flow and the upper-level disturbance may trigger a few
showers and thunderstorms...especially during the afternoon and
evening hours. Monday and Monday night will be warm and noticeably
more humid with dewpoints rising into the upper 60s and lower 70s
for most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z model suite in decent agreement with a cold front progressing
through the Mid-Atlantic. However, the exact timing and progression
of the front looks to have diverging answers amongst the models,
with a split on the front completely clearing the region to the
south as surface high pressure builds in from the west to lingering
just south of the forecast area. Nothing is really noted in the mid
and upper levels to aid in completely clearing the front, especially
with the upper level ridge holding in place over the western US,
resulting in continual troughing over the eastern half. As such,
will maintain at least slight chance PoPs in the forecast to account
for the uncertainty of the surface boundary. Temps currently look to
be right around to slightly be low normal, but this could change
depending on extent of precipitation coverage as well as placement
of the front and trough axis aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will build over the terminals today. IAD/CHO/MRB
are still plagued with MVFR cigs but these should improve as the
day progresses.

VFR conditions are expected later today through Sunday with high
pressure overhead. High pressure will move off the coast Sunday
night and a return southerly flow will increase moisture for
Monday into Monday night...possibly triggering some showers and
thunderstorms.

Generally VFR conditions Tues-Fri with possible sub-VFR
with any shower or thunderstorm each day.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will build along the Mid-Atlantic coast this morning
and it will remain nearby through Sunday. A northeast flow this
morning will turn to the southeast this afternoon into tonight.
The east to southeast flow will persist through Sunday before
turning to the south Monday ahead of an approaching cold front.
Winds should remain below SCA criteria through Sunday night...but
the gradient will increase a bit for Monday into Monday night so
SCA conditions are possible across portions of the waters.

A few showers and thunderstorms may impact the waters later Monday
afternoon into Monday night. Locally gusty winds are possible in
any thunderstorms that develop.

Generally sub-SCA conditions on all waters the middle of next
week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tidal anomalies remain around one-quarter to one-half foot above
normal. An onshore flow will persist through the weekend...but it
should remain light. Therefore...the anomalies should not change
too much. This would keep water levels below minor flooding
thresholds...but anomalies will have to be watched throughout this
period for sensitive areas.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PREVIOUS...BJL/APS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 251430
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1030 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build overhead this morning and remain in
place through Sunday. High pressure will move off the coast Sunday
night. A cold front will move through the region late Tuesday
into Tuesday night. The boundary will remain nearby during the
middle and latter portions of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Visible satellite shows the contrast of clear to cloudy - the
lower Potomac arcing into Carroll County. This is slowly working
westward as high pressure builds into the region from the NE.

Clouds will give way to sunshine from northeast to southwest.
Most areas will be dry this afternoon with plenty of sunshine.
However...it may take til around mid-afternoon for sunshine to
increase across portions of central Virginia into the Potomac
Highlands. Max temps will range from the lower 70s in the
mountains to the lower and middle 80s across most other locations.

High pressure will remain overhead tonight. More dry conditions
are expected along with mainly clear skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The high will continue to dominate the weather pattern Sunday
allowing for plenty of sunshine along with seasonably warm
conditions and low humidity. Dewpoints will be in the 50s to
lower 60s.

The high will weaken and move out to sea Sunday night into Monday.
A return southerly flow will develop during this time. An upper-
level disturbance will also approach the area Sunday night before
passing through Monday. Sunday night should turn out dry and
comfortable...but moisture will increase Monday due to the
southerly flow and the upper-level disturbance may trigger a few
showers and thunderstorms...especially during the afternoon and
evening hours. Monday and Monday night will be warm and noticeably
more humid with dewpoints rising into the upper 60s and lower 70s
for most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z model suite in decent agreement with a cold front progressing
through the Mid-Atlantic. However, the exact timing and progression
of the front looks to have diverging answers amongst the models,
with a split on the front completely clearing the region to the
south as surface high pressure builds in from the west to lingering
just south of the forecast area. Nothing is really noted in the mid
and upper levels to aid in completely clearing the front, especially
with the upper level ridge holding in place over the western US,
resulting in continual troughing over the eastern half. As such,
will maintain at least slight chance PoPs in the forecast to account
for the uncertainty of the surface boundary. Temps currently look to
be right around to slightly be low normal, but this could change
depending on extent of precipitation coverage as well as placement
of the front and trough axis aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will build over the terminals today. IAD/CHO/MRB
are still plagued with MVFR cigs but these should improve as the
day progresses.

VFR conditions are expected later today through Sunday with high
pressure overhead. High pressure will move off the coast Sunday
night and a return southerly flow will increase moisture for
Monday into Monday night...possibly triggering some showers and
thunderstorms.

Generally VFR conditions Tues-Fri with possible sub-VFR
with any shower or thunderstorm each day.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will build along the Mid-Atlantic coast this morning
and it will remain nearby through Sunday. A northeast flow this
morning will turn to the southeast this afternoon into tonight.
The east to southeast flow will persist through Sunday before
turning to the south Monday ahead of an approaching cold front.
Winds should remain below SCA criteria through Sunday night...but
the gradient will increase a bit for Monday into Monday night so
SCA conditions are possible across portions of the waters.

A few showers and thunderstorms may impact the waters later Monday
afternoon into Monday night. Locally gusty winds are possible in
any thunderstorms that develop.

Generally sub-SCA conditions on all waters the middle of next
week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tidal anomalies remain around one-quarter to one-half foot above
normal. An onshore flow will persist through the weekend...but it
should remain light. Therefore...the anomalies should not change
too much. This would keep water levels below minor flooding
thresholds...but anomalies will have to be watched throughout this
period for sensitive areas.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PREVIOUS...BJL/APS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 251421
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1021 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary pushes south of the area this morning. High
pressure will slowly build in from the north this afternoon and
will settle over the region tonight through Sunday. The high will
slide off the coast on Monday, as the next cold front approaches
from the west. That front will move into the region Monday night
into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Current MSAS indicating the frontal boundary now south of the
Albemarle Sound, with a light N/NE flow prevailing. Radar trends
are showing isolated showers over srn VA/ne NC and will keep this
in the grids through 16Z. Clouds beginning to sct out across the
lwr MD ern shore with mostly cloudy skies elsewhere. Still expect
a slow clearing trend from the north through the aftrn.

Will maintain a slight chc for aftn tstms over far southern VA
and interior ne NC where some minimal CAPES to ~500 J/Kg persist.
High temperatures today will be greatly affected by the sky cover
and the N/NE flow. Have gone with highs mainly ranging from the
upper 70s to lower 80s, coolest along the immediate coast.

For tonight, some clouds may persist into the evening acrs the
far south, but should see mainly clear conditions all areas
overnight. Cooler/drier airmass to prevail as sfc high pressure
ridges SSW from the NE CONUS. Expect lows in the upper 50s to mid
60s most areas. Patchy fog will be possible, especially if clouds
linger today and the wet ground that is prevalent in some areas
has little time to dry out before the clearing arrives.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mostly sunny Sunday as high pressure dominates. Continued onshore
flow keeps it coolest at the beaches. Highs low to mid 80s west of
the Ches Bay, 75-80 F along the coast. Mostly clear Sunday night.
Lows in the 60s.

Models continue a bit slower with the next front early next week.
Moisture ahead of it does not really increase until after
18z...so expect a dry first half of the day with sct convection
developing across the NW zones after 18z, and gradually pushing SE
through 00Z/Tue. Highs in the mid-upper 80s except upr70s to lwr-
mid 80s at the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Chances for showers/tstms increase to 40-60% Mon night as the
front gets closer to the area and brings an increase in lift and
moisture to the region. Will continue with a chance for showers
and thunderstorms across the entire area into Tuesday with the
lee trough/front slow to push through the region. The upper
support and jet axis generally stays well N/NW of the area, and as
such do not expect much in the way of severe weather Monday night
(latest SPC outlook brings a marginal risk into Nw portions of the
CWA). The upper trough and associated cold front slowly moves
across the area Tuesday into Tuesday night. This will allow for
chances for showers and thunderstorms to persist into Tuesday
evening. Drier and cooler weather expected for Thursday as high
pressure builds across the area in Northerly flow. With the front
being just south of the area, will need to bring back a small
chance for showers and storms on Friday as the ECMWF and the GFS
suggest that a wave will develop along the front and allow
moisture to return to the area.

Tuesday will likely see temps around normal in the mid-upper 80s
before dropping back into the low-mid 80s for Wed-Fri.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 06Z, a cold front was dropping to the VA/NC border with sctd
showers and isltd tstms associated with the boundary. The front
will push swrd thru the Carolina`s during today, allowing hi pres
and NNE winds with drier air to filter into the region. Expect
MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilties initially thru abt 14Z/15Z at
the taf sites, then VFR conditions after 17Z/18Z and continuing
into tngt.

OUTLOOK...Dry weather is expected through the weekend, as hi pres
sits just off the New England and Nrn Mid Atlc cst. Additional
restrictions to visibilities and ceilings will be possible once
again Sun morng. There will be a chance for showers and tstms
late Mon into Tue night, with pcpn ending fm west to east on
Wed following the passage of a cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will push s of the waters and down thru the Carolina`s
during today, allowing hi pres and NNE winds 10 to 20 kt to
develop ovr the area. Waves will bld to 2 to 3 ft ovr the Ches Bay
and Seas will bld to 3 to 4 ft ovr the cstl waters. Winds will
diminish on Sun, as the high blds acrs the area, then lee
troughiness will allow for the winds to turn s-sw on Mon into
Tue before the next cold front passes through Tue Night into Wed
morng. Overall, the expectation is that conditions will remain
below small craft advisory criteria through the next 5 days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
River Flood Warning continues for the James River at Bremo Bluff
with the water level now above flood stage. Updated forecast to
have a later and higher crest this afternoon before dropping back
below flood stage this evening. See FLSAKQ for details.

The latest guid has Richmond Westham cresting about 1/2 foot below
flood stage Sunday morning. Will cont to monitor the level but a
flood warning is not expected at this time.

&&

.CLIMATE...
June has been another wet month at Richmond, the monthly total
rainfall through the 24th stands at 6.92" and already makes this
the 9th wettest June on record (2004 is wettest June with 9.93").

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG
HYDROLOGY...MPR




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 251421
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1021 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary pushes south of the area this morning. High
pressure will slowly build in from the north this afternoon and
will settle over the region tonight through Sunday. The high will
slide off the coast on Monday, as the next cold front approaches
from the west. That front will move into the region Monday night
into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Current MSAS indicating the frontal boundary now south of the
Albemarle Sound, with a light N/NE flow prevailing. Radar trends
are showing isolated showers over srn VA/ne NC and will keep this
in the grids through 16Z. Clouds beginning to sct out across the
lwr MD ern shore with mostly cloudy skies elsewhere. Still expect
a slow clearing trend from the north through the aftrn.

Will maintain a slight chc for aftn tstms over far southern VA
and interior ne NC where some minimal CAPES to ~500 J/Kg persist.
High temperatures today will be greatly affected by the sky cover
and the N/NE flow. Have gone with highs mainly ranging from the
upper 70s to lower 80s, coolest along the immediate coast.

For tonight, some clouds may persist into the evening acrs the
far south, but should see mainly clear conditions all areas
overnight. Cooler/drier airmass to prevail as sfc high pressure
ridges SSW from the NE CONUS. Expect lows in the upper 50s to mid
60s most areas. Patchy fog will be possible, especially if clouds
linger today and the wet ground that is prevalent in some areas
has little time to dry out before the clearing arrives.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mostly sunny Sunday as high pressure dominates. Continued onshore
flow keeps it coolest at the beaches. Highs low to mid 80s west of
the Ches Bay, 75-80 F along the coast. Mostly clear Sunday night.
Lows in the 60s.

Models continue a bit slower with the next front early next week.
Moisture ahead of it does not really increase until after
18z...so expect a dry first half of the day with sct convection
developing across the NW zones after 18z, and gradually pushing SE
through 00Z/Tue. Highs in the mid-upper 80s except upr70s to lwr-
mid 80s at the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Chances for showers/tstms increase to 40-60% Mon night as the
front gets closer to the area and brings an increase in lift and
moisture to the region. Will continue with a chance for showers
and thunderstorms across the entire area into Tuesday with the
lee trough/front slow to push through the region. The upper
support and jet axis generally stays well N/NW of the area, and as
such do not expect much in the way of severe weather Monday night
(latest SPC outlook brings a marginal risk into Nw portions of the
CWA). The upper trough and associated cold front slowly moves
across the area Tuesday into Tuesday night. This will allow for
chances for showers and thunderstorms to persist into Tuesday
evening. Drier and cooler weather expected for Thursday as high
pressure builds across the area in Northerly flow. With the front
being just south of the area, will need to bring back a small
chance for showers and storms on Friday as the ECMWF and the GFS
suggest that a wave will develop along the front and allow
moisture to return to the area.

Tuesday will likely see temps around normal in the mid-upper 80s
before dropping back into the low-mid 80s for Wed-Fri.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 06Z, a cold front was dropping to the VA/NC border with sctd
showers and isltd tstms associated with the boundary. The front
will push swrd thru the Carolina`s during today, allowing hi pres
and NNE winds with drier air to filter into the region. Expect
MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilties initially thru abt 14Z/15Z at
the taf sites, then VFR conditions after 17Z/18Z and continuing
into tngt.

OUTLOOK...Dry weather is expected through the weekend, as hi pres
sits just off the New England and Nrn Mid Atlc cst. Additional
restrictions to visibilities and ceilings will be possible once
again Sun morng. There will be a chance for showers and tstms
late Mon into Tue night, with pcpn ending fm west to east on
Wed following the passage of a cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will push s of the waters and down thru the Carolina`s
during today, allowing hi pres and NNE winds 10 to 20 kt to
develop ovr the area. Waves will bld to 2 to 3 ft ovr the Ches Bay
and Seas will bld to 3 to 4 ft ovr the cstl waters. Winds will
diminish on Sun, as the high blds acrs the area, then lee
troughiness will allow for the winds to turn s-sw on Mon into
Tue before the next cold front passes through Tue Night into Wed
morng. Overall, the expectation is that conditions will remain
below small craft advisory criteria through the next 5 days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
River Flood Warning continues for the James River at Bremo Bluff
with the water level now above flood stage. Updated forecast to
have a later and higher crest this afternoon before dropping back
below flood stage this evening. See FLSAKQ for details.

The latest guid has Richmond Westham cresting about 1/2 foot below
flood stage Sunday morning. Will cont to monitor the level but a
flood warning is not expected at this time.

&&

.CLIMATE...
June has been another wet month at Richmond, the monthly total
rainfall through the 24th stands at 6.92" and already makes this
the 9th wettest June on record (2004 is wettest June with 9.93").

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG
HYDROLOGY...MPR




000
FXUS61 KPHI 251319
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
919 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the area this weekend before
moving off the coast Sunday night and Monday. A cold front will
move through the area Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. The
front will stall off the coast and to our south through the end of
the week while high pressure builds in from the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High pres will be located over the region today. After mrng low
clouds, clearing will take place and expect a mostly sunny and
pleasant day. Temps will be pleasant with low relative humidity
values. Temperatures are currently running a few degrees warmer
than modeled across the northern half of the region. Given the dry
conditions and boundary layer temperatures near 20C have added
about three degrees to the highs across the Lehigh Valley and
Northern NJ with the 9:30 am update.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
The aforementioned high will remain parked over the region tonight,
so a clear sky and light wind will prevail. Some patchy fog is
psbl.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Sunday and Sunday night, the mid-Atlantic region will remain
situated on the western periphery of high pressure that will be
centered off the east coast. A southerly return flow pattern will
develop around the backside of the surface high. Initially, WAA
within the boundary layer appears negligible with the low-level
ridge axis directly overhead. Accordingly, we are not expecting a
notable warming trend heading into Sunday. The one exception to the
above may be our far northern and western zones where there is a
possibility the ridge axis progresses downstream early enough on
Sunday for WAA to ensue by afternoon. The warmest conditions are
forecast to reside west of I-95 on Sunday where highs are in the
upper 80s (which would be 3-5F higher than what is forecast for
today). Low temperatures Sunday night will generally be in the 60s
with a few 50s possible in the Pine Barrens and the sheltered
valleys of northeast PA/northwest NJ.

A cold front will move into the Great Lakes-Midwest region on Monday
while a pre-frontal trough approaches from the Ohio Valley. High
clouds well ahead of this system will increase across the forecast
area during the day. Went a few degrees above guidance for high
temps, especially along and east of I-95, where it appears the
arrival of the thicker cloud deck ahead of the pre-frontal trough
should hold off until late in the day, allowing for strong heating
to take place. Models indicate a band of precip associated a leading
shortwave disturbance aloft moving into eastern PA during the
afternoon and the rest of the area Monday night. Went against climo
and kept thunderstorms out of the forecast for Monday as modified
forecast soundings (i.e., modified to account for the cool surface
temperature bias that we are expecting models to exhibit for Monday)
depict a rather stable environment over the area. We could
potentially see isolated thunderstorms move in from the west Monday
night when some elevated instability with the pre-frontal trough
could arrive.

The cold front is forecast to be located in western NY and the Ohio
Valley by Tuesday morning. The front may then jump to the pre-
frontal surface trough on the lee side of the Applachians during
the day. There is still some uncertainty with how quickly the
front arrives into our western zones and subsequently moves off
the coast since downstream blocking over the western Atlantic
Ocean should slow down the movement of the front as it approaches
the eastern seaboard. The latest forecast advertises the highest
PoPs in the period for late Tuesday afternoon when the front
should be at least on our western doorstep and Tuesday night when
the front will likely be somewhere in the forecast area. There is
a potential that we may see a few strong to severe storms if the
arrival of the synoptic lift from the front and upper shortwave
trough coincides with peak heating Tuesday afternoon-early evening
(per 00Z GFS solution). Other guidance, including the
ECMWF/Canadian depict a less favorable setup for severe storms
across our area with the best forcing arriving at night. Kept low
chances in the forecast for Wednesday morning if the front slows
down or stalls over the area as indicated by the past several runs
of the ECMWF.

The frontal boundary is forecast to remain just off the coast and
also to our south during the second half of the work week.
Meanwhile, high pressure over the Great Plains and Midwest will will
build into our region. Expect a mainly dry period late Wednesday
through early Friday. A few showers may develop Friday afternoon,
particularly across our southern zones with the frontal boundary
starting to lift slowly northward back toward the region. Near
normal temperatures are expected during this time.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

IFR/LIFR conds, mainly for low clouds prevail erly this mrng.
However, after daybreak, conds shud become VFR.  Then expect VFR to
dominate thru the day and into tonight.  Some fog is again possible
late tonight with lcl vsby restrictions.

Light wind erly will become more ne to e during the day with speeds
less than 10 kts.  By evening a more s to se flow is expected.
Overnight, the wind is expected to be calm to less than 5 kts before
increasing to less than 10 kts on Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday and Sunday night...VFR with light southerly winds

Monday through Tuesday night...VFR outside of heavier showers and
storms. Expect coverage of showers to be scattered early in the
week. Thunderstorm chances looks minimal on Monday, then
increases Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Wednesday...Winds shift to northwesterly in wake of fropa. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
There could be marginal sca conds erly today due to the NE to E
flow, but confidence is not high enough for sca issuance. Seas are
still around three feet with the 9:30 am update making it even
less likely to reach five feet with the change in wind direction
to more southeasterly later today.

Outlook...

Sunday through Wednesday...Winds and seas should remain below SCA
criteria. Thunderstorms could produce locally gusty winds over the
waters Tuesday late afternoon and night.

RIP CURRENTS...
Moderate risk for rip currents today with the onshore flow. The
risk appears to lower by Sunday as winds and seas diminish.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Klein
Near Term...Gaines/Nierenberg
Short Term...Nierenberg
Long Term...Klein
Aviation...Klein/Nierenberg
Marine...Gaines/Klein/Nierenberg




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251148
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
748 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and dry weather is expected through the weekend. A weak
frontal system will bring a chance for showers and storms Sunday
night and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Dry and very warm today as large ridge builds over the Upper Ohio
Valley. Plenty of sunshine and a strong push of warmer air aloft,
temperatures will be above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Dry and very warm Sunday as strong ridge holds over the area.

Shower and thunderstorms chances return to the forecast Sunday
night and through the first half of Monday, as a weak cold front
approaches and passes through the area. At this time, will leave
in the mention of thunder, although lack of instability, time of
day, and lack of cold air advection behind the boundary will be a
hindrance toward the development of convection.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Brief respite from rain later Monday, before a second cold front
sweeps through the area Monday night. Models are not showing much
activity with the second front, but it will usher in cooler air
Tuesday and Wednesday. High pressure will provide a dry and
seasonable end to the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Patchy MVFR/IFR fog disapating quickly. VFR conditions for rest of
day. Expect a less fog sunday morning with another day of drying.
Winds will be light.

.OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Restrictions are possible with a Sunday night/Monday cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251148
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
748 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and dry weather is expected through the weekend. A weak
frontal system will bring a chance for showers and storms Sunday
night and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Dry and very warm today as large ridge builds over the Upper Ohio
Valley. Plenty of sunshine and a strong push of warmer air aloft,
temperatures will be above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Dry and very warm Sunday as strong ridge holds over the area.

Shower and thunderstorms chances return to the forecast Sunday
night and through the first half of Monday, as a weak cold front
approaches and passes through the area. At this time, will leave
in the mention of thunder, although lack of instability, time of
day, and lack of cold air advection behind the boundary will be a
hindrance toward the development of convection.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Brief respite from rain later Monday, before a second cold front
sweeps through the area Monday night. Models are not showing much
activity with the second front, but it will usher in cooler air
Tuesday and Wednesday. High pressure will provide a dry and
seasonable end to the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Patchy MVFR/IFR fog disapating quickly. VFR conditions for rest of
day. Expect a less fog sunday morning with another day of drying.
Winds will be light.

.OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Restrictions are possible with a Sunday night/Monday cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251148
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
748 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and dry weather is expected through the weekend. A weak
frontal system will bring a chance for showers and storms Sunday
night and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Dry and very warm today as large ridge builds over the Upper Ohio
Valley. Plenty of sunshine and a strong push of warmer air aloft,
temperatures will be above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Dry and very warm Sunday as strong ridge holds over the area.

Shower and thunderstorms chances return to the forecast Sunday
night and through the first half of Monday, as a weak cold front
approaches and passes through the area. At this time, will leave
in the mention of thunder, although lack of instability, time of
day, and lack of cold air advection behind the boundary will be a
hindrance toward the development of convection.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Brief respite from rain later Monday, before a second cold front
sweeps through the area Monday night. Models are not showing much
activity with the second front, but it will usher in cooler air
Tuesday and Wednesday. High pressure will provide a dry and
seasonable end to the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Patchy MVFR/IFR fog disapating quickly. VFR conditions for rest of
day. Expect a less fog sunday morning with another day of drying.
Winds will be light.

.OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Restrictions are possible with a Sunday night/Monday cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251148
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
748 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and dry weather is expected through the weekend. A weak
frontal system will bring a chance for showers and storms Sunday
night and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Dry and very warm today as large ridge builds over the Upper Ohio
Valley. Plenty of sunshine and a strong push of warmer air aloft,
temperatures will be above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Dry and very warm Sunday as strong ridge holds over the area.

Shower and thunderstorms chances return to the forecast Sunday
night and through the first half of Monday, as a weak cold front
approaches and passes through the area. At this time, will leave
in the mention of thunder, although lack of instability, time of
day, and lack of cold air advection behind the boundary will be a
hindrance toward the development of convection.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Brief respite from rain later Monday, before a second cold front
sweeps through the area Monday night. Models are not showing much
activity with the second front, but it will usher in cooler air
Tuesday and Wednesday. High pressure will provide a dry and
seasonable end to the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Patchy MVFR/IFR fog disapating quickly. VFR conditions for rest of
day. Expect a less fog sunday morning with another day of drying.
Winds will be light.

.OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Restrictions are possible with a Sunday night/Monday cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250952
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
552 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and dry conditions are expected through the weekend. A weak
frontal system will bring a chance for showers and storms Sunday night
and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Dry and very warm today as large ridge builds over the Upper Ohio
Valley. With plenty of sunshine and a strong push of warmer air
aloft, temperatures will be above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Dry and very warm Sunday as strong ridge holds over the area.

Shower and thunderstorms chances return to the forecast Sunday
night and through the first half of Monday, as a weak cold front
approaches and passes through the area. At this time, will leave
in the mention of thunder, although lack of instability, time of
day, and lack of cold air advection behind the boundary will be a
hindrance toward the development of convection.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Brief respite from rain later Monday, before a second cold front
sweeps through the area Monday night. Models are not showing much
activity with the second front, but it will usher in cooler air
Tuesday and Wednesday. High pressure will provide a dry and
seasonable end to the week.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Patchy MVFR/IFR fog will be seen at a few terminals into
midmorning, before VFR conditions take hold with scattered cumulus
clouds this afternoon. Expecting a little less fog tonight with
another day of drying. Winds will be light.

.OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Restrictions are possible with a Sunday night/Monday cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 250821
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
421 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary pushes south of the area this morning. High
pressure will slowly build in from the north this afternoon and
will settle over the region tonight through Sunday. The high will
slide off the coast on Monday, as the next cold front approaches
from the west. That front will move into the region Monday night
into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Current analysis indicating the frontal boundary now pushing south
of the CWA into central NC, with a light N/NE flow prevailing.
Some isolated showers remain over ne NC and will keep this in the
forecast through 12Z, mainly just cloudy to mostly cloudy
elsewhere with minimal chance for rain. Given the widespread cloud
cover, removed fog mention from the forecast (could see some
patchy fog briefly develop around sunrise acrs the north though
doubt this would become an issue). Otherwise, for today, expect a
slow clearing trend through the day. Bufkit soundings and the
current location where the widespread stratus gives way to clear
skies (over Delaware) suggest mostly sunny skies first reach into
our MD and eastern shore zones later this morning, while mostly
cloudy conditions prevail through at least 18Z if not 21Z over
southern VA and ne NC. Will maintain a slight chc for aftn tstms
over far southern VA and interior ne NC where some minimal CAPES
to ~500 J/Kg persist. High temperatures today will be greatly
affected by the sky cover and the N/NE flow. Have gone with highs
mainly ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s, coolest along the
immediate coast. Could be a scenario where temperatures remain
rather cool through 18Z with the clouds (in lower-mid 70s) then
rise several degrees late in the aftn as skies clear out. For
tonight, some clouds may persist into the evening acrs the far
south, but should see mainly clear conditions all areas overnight.
Cooler/drier airmass to prevail as sfc high pressure ridges SSW
from the NE CONUS. Expect lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s most
areas. Patchy fog will be possible, especially if clouds linger
today and the wet ground that is prevalent in some areas has
little time to dry out before the clearing arrives.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mostly sunny Sunday as high pressure dominates. Continued onshore
flow keeps it coolest at the beaches. Highs low to mid 80s west of
the Ches Bay, 75-80 F along the coast. Mostly clear Sunday night.
Lows in the 60s.

Models continue a bit slower with the next front early next week.
Moisture ahead of it does not really increase until after
18z...so expect a dry first half of the day with sct convection
developing across the NW zones after 18z, and gradually pushing SE
through 00Z/Tue. Highs in the mid-upper 80s except upr70s to lwr-
mid 80s at the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Chances for showers/tstms increase to 40-60% Mon night as the
front gets closer to the area and brings an increase in lift and
moisture to the region. Will continue with a chance for showers
and thunderstorms across the entire area into Tuesday with the
lee trough/front slow to push through the region. The upper
support and jet axis generally stays well N/NW of the area, and as
such do not expect much in the way of severe weather Monday night
(latest SPC outlook brings a marginal risk into Nw portions of the
CWA). The upper trough and associated cold front slowly moves
across the area Tuesday into Tuesday night. This will allow for
chances for showers and thunderstorms to persist into Tuesday
evening. Drier and cooler weather expected for Thursday as high
pressure builds across the area in Northerly flow. With the front
being just south of the area, will need to bring back a small
chance for showers and storms on Friday as the ECMWF and the GFS
suggest that a wave will develop along the front and allow
moisture to return to the area.

Tuesday will likely see temps around normal in the mid-upper 80s
before dropping back into the low-mid 80s for Wed-Fri.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 06Z, a cold front was dropping to the VA/NC border with sctd
showers and isltd tstms associated with the boundary. The front
will push swrd thru the Carolina`s during today, allowing hi pres
and NNE winds with drier air to filter into the region. Expect
MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilties initially thru abt 14Z/15Z at
the taf sites, then VFR conditions after 17Z/18Z and continuing
into tngt.

OUTLOOK...Dry weather is expected through the weekend, as hi pres
sits just off the New England and Nrn Mid Atlc cst. Additional
restrictions to visibilities and ceilings will be possible once
again Sun morng. There will be a chance for showers and tstms
late Mon into Tue night, with pcpn ending fm west to east on
Wed following the passage of a cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will push s of the waters and down thru the Carolina`s
during today, allowing hi pres and NNE winds 10 to 20 kt to
develop ovr the area. Waves will bld to 2 to 3 ft ovr the Ches Bay
and Seas will bld to 3 to 4 ft ovr the cstl waters. Winds will
diminish on Sun, as the high blds acrs the area, then lee
troughiness will allow for the winds to turn s-sw on Mon into
Tue before the next cold front passes through Tue Night into Wed
morng. Overall, the expectation is that conditions will remain
below small craft advisory criteria through the next 5 days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A River Flood Warning for the James River at Bremo Bluff remains
in effect, with the water level now rising quickly and expected to
rise above flood stage later this morning. Holding off on Richmond
Westham for now, as the latest guidance has them approaching but
not quite exceeding flood stage late tonight/early Sunday morning.
Feel we have some time to see how the upstream gages react to the
rainfall.

&&

.CLIMATE...
June has been another wet month at Richmond, the monthly total
rainfall through the 24th stands at 6.92" and already makes this
the 9th wettest June on record (2004 is wettest June with 9.93").

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
CLIMATE...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250815
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
415 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and dry conditions are expected through the weekend. A weak
frontal system will bring a chance for showers and storms Sunday night
and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Dry and very warm today as large ridge builds over the Upper Ohio
Valley. With plenty of sunshine and a strong push of warmer air
aloft, temperatures will be above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Dry and very warm Sunday as strong ridge holds over the area.

Shower and thunderstorms chances return to the forecast Sunday
night and through the first half of Monday, as a weak cold front
approaches and passes through the area. At this time, will leave
in the mention of thunder, although lack of instability, time of
day, and lack of cold air advection behind the boundary will be a
hindrance toward the development of convection.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Brief respite from rain later Monday, before a second cold front
sweeps through the area Monday night. Models are not showing much
activity with the second front, but it will usher in cooler air
Tuesday and Wednesday. High pressure will provide a dry and
seasonable end to the week.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
We still expect MVFR fog development during the predawn hours at
most terminals, with IFR possible at MGW/LBE where the ground
remains moist and higher dewpoints are in place. Fog will
dissipate by midmorning, with VFR conditions and light winds
forecast for the remainder of the TAF period.

.OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Restrictions are possible with a Sunday night/Monday cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPHI 250812
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
412 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the area this weekend before
moving off the coast Sunday night and Monday. A cold front will
move through the area Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. The
front will stall off the coast and to our south through the end of
the week while high pressure builds in from the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High pres will be located over the region today. After mrng low
clouds, clearing will take place and expect a mostly sunny and
pleasant day. Temps will be pleasant with low relative humidity
values.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
The aforementioned high will remain parked over the region tonight,
so a clear sky and light wind will prevail. Some patchy fog is
psbl.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Sunday and Sunday night, the mid-Atlantic region will remain
situated on the western periphery of high pressure that will be
centered off the east coast. A southerly return flow pattern will
develop around the backside of the surface high. Initially, WAA
within the boundary layer appears negligible with the low-level
ridge axis directly overhead. Accordingly, we are not expecting a
notable warming trend heading into Sunday. The one exception to the
above may be our far northern and western zones where there is a
possibility the ridge axis progresses downstream early enough on
Sunday for WAA to ensue by afternoon. The warmest conditions are
forecast to reside west of I-95 on Sunday where highs are in the
upper 80s (which would be 3-5F higher than what is forecast for
today). Low temperatures Sunday night will generally be in the 60s
with a few 50s possible in the Pine Barrens and the sheltered
valleys of northeast PA/northwest NJ.

A cold front will move into the Great Lakes-Midwest region on Monday
while a pre-frontal trough approaches from the Ohio Valley. High
clouds well ahead of this system will increase across the forecast
area during the day. Went a few degrees above guidance for high
temps, especially along and east of I-95, where it appears the
arrival of the thicker cloud deck ahead of the pre-frontal trough
should hold off until late in the day, allowing for strong heating
to take place. Models indicate a band of precip associated a leading
shortwave disturbance aloft moving into eastern PA during the
afternoon and the rest of the area Monday night. Went against climo
and kept thunderstorms out of the forecast for Monday as modified
forecast soundings (i.e., modified to account for the cool surface
temperature bias that we are expecting models to exhibit for Monday)
depict a rather stable environment over the area. We could
potentially see isolated thunderstorms move in from the west Monday
night when some elevated instability with the pre-frontal trough
could arrive.

The cold front is forecast to be located in western NY and the Ohio
Valley by Tuesday morning. The front may then jump to the pre-
frontal surface trough on the lee side of the Applachians during
the day. There is still some uncertainty with how quickly the
front arrives into our western zones and subsequently moves off
the coast since downstream blocking over the western Atlantic
Ocean should slow down the movement of the front as it approaches
the eastern seaboard. The latest forecast advertises the highest
PoPs in the period for late Tuesday afternoon when the front
should be at least on our western doorstep and Tuesday night when
the front will likely be somewhere in the forecast area. There is
a potential that we may see a few strong to severe storms if the
arrival of the synoptic lift from the front and upper shortwave
trough coincides with peak heating Tuesday afternoon-early evening
(per 00Z GFS solution). Other guidance, including the
ECMWF/Canadian depict a less favorable setup for severe storms
across our area with the best forcing arriving at night. Kept low
chances in the forecast for Wednesday morning if the front slows
down or stalls over the area as indicated by the past several runs
of the ECMWF.

The frontal boundary is forecast to remain just off the coast and
also to our south during the second half of the work week.
Meanwhile, high pressure over the Great Plains and Midwest will will
build into our region. Expect a mainly dry period late Wednesday
through early Friday. A few showers may develop Friday afternoon,
particularly across our southern zones with the frontal boundary
starting to lift slowly northward back toward the region. Near
normal temperatures are expected during this time.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

IFR/LIFR conds, mainly for low clouds prevail erly this mrng.
However, after daybreak, conds shud become VFR.  Then expect VFR to
dominate thru the day and into tonight.  Some fog is again possible
late tonight with lcl vsby restrictions.

Light wind erly will become more ne to e during the day with speeds
less than 10 kts.  By evening a more s to se flow is expected.
Overnight, the wind is expected to be calm to less than 5 kts before
increasing to less than 10 kts on Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday and Sunday night...VFR with light southerly winds

Monday through Tuesday night...VFR outside of heavier showers and
storms. Expect coverage of showers to be scattered early in the
week. Thunderstorm chances looks minimal on Monday, then
increases Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Wednesday...Winds shift to northwesterly in wake of fropa. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
There could be marginal sca conds erly today due to the NE to E
flow, but confidence is not high enough for sca issuance. Then
wind and seas are expected to decrease thru the remainder of the
near and short term pd as the flow becomes more sely.

Outlook...

Sunday through Wednesday...Winds and seas should remain below SCA
criteria. Thunderstorms could produce locally gusty winds over the
waters Tuesday late afternoon and night.

RIP CURRENTS...
Moderate risk for rip currents today with the onshore flow. The
risk appears to lower by Sunday as winds and seas diminish.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Klein
Near Term...Nierenberg
Short Term...Nierenberg
Long Term...Klein
Aviation...Klein/Nierenberg
Marine...Klein/Nierenberg




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 250800
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
400 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary pushes south of the area this morning. High
pressure will slowly build in from the north this afternoon and
will settle over the region tonight through Sunday. The high will
slide off the coast on Monday, as the next cold front approaches
from the west. That front will move into the region Monday night
into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Current analysis indicating the frontal boundary now pushing south
of the CWA into central NC, with a light N/NE flow prevailing.
Some isolated showers remain over ne NC and will keep this in the
forecast through 12Z, mainly just cloudy to mostly cloudy
elsewhere with minimal chance for rain. Given the widespread cloud
cover, removed fog mention from the forecast (could see some
patchy fog briefly develop around sunrise acrs the north though
doubt this would become an issue). Otherwise, for today, expect a
slow clearing trend through the day. Bufkit soundings and the
current location where the widespread stratus gives way to clear
skies (over Delaware) suggest mostly sunny skies first reach into
our MD and eastern shore zones later this morning, while mostly
cloudy conditions prevail through at least 18Z if not 21Z over
southern VA and ne NC. Will maintain a slight chc for aftn tstms
over far southern VA and interior ne NC where some minimal CAPES
to ~500 J/Kg persist. High temperatures today will be greatly
affected by the sky cover and the N/NE flow. Have gone with highs
mainly ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s, coolest along the
immediate coast. Could be a scenario where temperatures remain
rather cool through 18Z with the clouds (in lower-mid 70s) then
rise several degrees late in the aftn as skies clear out. For
tonight, some clouds may persist into the evening acrs the far
south, but should see mainly clear conditions all areas overnight.
Cooler/drier airmass to prevail as sfc high pressure ridges SSW
from the NE CONUS. Expect lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s most
areas. Patchy fog will be possible, especially if clouds linger
today and the wet ground that is prevalent in some areas has
little time to dry out before the clearing arrives.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mostly sunny Sunday as high pressure dominates. Continued onshore
flow keeps it coolest at the beaches. Highs low to mid 80s west of
the Ches Bay, 75-80 F along the coast. Mostly clear Sunday night.
Lows in the 60s.

Models continue a bit slower with the next front early next week.
Moisture ahead of it does not really increase until after
18z...so expect a dry first half of the day with sct convection
developing across the NW zones after 18z, and gradually pushing SE
through 00Z/Tue. Highs in the mid-upper 80s except upr70s to lwr-
mid 80s at the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Chances for showers/tstms increase to 40-60% Mon night as the
front gets closer to the area and brings an increase in lift and
moisture to the region. Will continue with a chance for showers
and thunderstorms across the entire area into Tuesday with the
lee trough/front slow to push through the region. The upper
support and jet axis generally stays well N/NW of the area, and as
such do not expect much in the way of severe weather Monday night
(latest SPC outlook brings a marginal risk into Nw portions of the
CWA). The upper trough and associated cold front slowly moves
across the area Tuesday into Tuesday night. This will allow for
chances for showers and thunderstorms to persist into Tuesday
evening. Drier and cooler weather expected for Thursday as high
pressure builds across the area in Northerly flow. With the front
being just south of the area, will need to bring back a small
chance for showers and storms on Friday as the ECMWF and the GFS
suggest that a wave will develop along the front and allow
moisture to return to the area.

Tuesday will likely see temps around normal in the mid-upper 80s
before dropping back into the low-mid 80s for Wed-Fri.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 06Z, a cold front was dropping to the VA/NC border with sctd
showers and isltd tstms associated with the boundary. The front
will push swrd thru the Carolinas during today, allowing hi pres
and NNE winds with drier air to filter into the region. Expect
MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilties initially thru abt 14Z/15Z at
the taf sites, then VFR conditions after 17Z/18Z and continuing
into tngt.

OUTLOOK...Dry weather is expected through the weekend, as hi pres
sits just off the New England and Nrn Mid Atlc cst. Additional
restrictions to visibilities and ceilings will be possible once
again Sun morng. There will be a chance for showers and tstms
late Mon into Tue night, with pcpn ending fm west to east on
Wed following the passage of a cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
The cold front front over the area will drift south of the waters
tonight. This will allow for NE winds to develop across the entire
region by Saturday, but with the gradient being rather weak do not
expect winds to increase to much more than 15 kt with seas over the
coastal waters no more than 4 ft. Winds diminish on Sunday as the
high builds across the area, then lee troughiness will allow for the
winds to turn south-southeast on Monday into Tuesday before the next
cold front passes through into Tuesday Night. Overall...the
expectation is that conditions will remain below small craft
advisory criteria through the next 5 days, although Saturday may see
seas of 4 feet across the northern waters.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A River Flood Warning for the James River at Bremo Bluff remains
in effect, with the water level now rising quickly and expected to
rise above flood stage later this morning. Holding off on Richmond
Westham for now, as the latest guidance has them approaching but
not quite exceeding flood stage late tonight/early Sunday morning.
Feel we have some time to see how the upstream gages react to the
rainfall.

&&

.CLIMATE...
June has been another wet month at Richmond, the monthly total
rainfall through the 24th stands at 6.92" and already makes this
the 9th wettest June on record (2004 is wettest June with 9.93").

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KLWX 250729
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
329 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will overhead this morning and it will remain in
place through Sunday. High pressure will move off the coast Sunday
night through Monday and a cold front will move into the region
late Tuesday into Tuesday night. The boundary will remain nearby
during the middle and latter portions of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A weak boundary continues to drop to the south while high pressure
approaches from the north and east early this morning. Drier air
is slowly working its way in from the north and east...but plenty
of moisture still remains trapped underneath the subsidence and
nocturnal inversions. This means that low clouds and patchy fog
will persist for most areas through 12z this morning. There may be
some breaks across northeastern Maryland during this time.

Drier air will continue to work its way into the region later this
morning through this afternoon...and clouds will give way to
sunshine from northeast to southwest during this time. Most areas
will be dry this afternoon with plenty of sunshine. However...it
may take til around mid-afternoon for sunshine to increase across
portions of central Virginia into the Potomac Highlands. An
isolated shower cannot be ruled across the ridge tops of Highland
and Pendleton County where moisture will hang around for most of
the day...but even across these areas most of the time will be
dry. Max temps will range from the lower 70s in the mountains to
the lower and middle 80s across most other locations.

High pressure will remain overhead tonight. More dry conditions
are expected along with mainly clear skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The high will continue to dominate the weather pattern Sunday
allowing for plenty of sunshine along with seasonably warm
conditions and low humidity. Dewpoints will be in the 50s to
lower 60s.

The high will weaken and move out to sea Sunday night into Monday.
A return southerly flow will develop during this time. An upper-
level disturbance will also approach the area Sunday night before
passing through Monday. Sunday night should turn out dry and
comfortable...but moisture will increase Monday due to the
southerly flow and the upper-level disturbance may trigger a few
showers and thunderstorms...especially during the afternoon and
evening hours. Monday and Monday night will be warm and noticeably
more humid with dewpoints rising into the upper 60s and lower 70s
for most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z model suite in decent agreement with a cold front progressing
through the Mid-Atlantic. However, the exact timing and progression
of the front looks to have diverging answers amongst the models,
with a split on the front completely clearing the region to the
south as surface high pressure builds in from the west to lingering
just south of the forecast area. Nothing is really noted in the mid
and upper levels to aid in completely clearing the front, especially
with the upper level ridge holding in place over the western US,
resulting in continual troughing over the eastern half. As such,
will maintain at least slight chance PoPs in the forecast to account
for the uncertainty of the surface boundary. Temps currently look to
be right around to slightly be low normal, but this could change
depending on extent of precipitation coverage as well as placement
of the front and trough axis aloft.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will build over the terminals today. However...low
clouds remain trapped underneath the subsidence inversion early
this morning. Low clouds should remain around through 12z for most
areas...but there may be some breaks near KMTN and KBWI. Low
clouds will clear out from northeast to southwest between 12 and
18z. Low end MVFR conditions are expected early this morning
before lifting to VFR levels later this morning into early this
afternoon. However...hires guidance continues to show cigs
dropping to IFR levels. Therefore...a period of IFR levels is in
the forecast but confidence is low at this time.

VFR conditions are expected later today through Sunday with high
pressure overhead. High pressure will move off the coast Sunday
night and a return southerly flow will increase moisture for
Monday into Monday night...possibly triggering some showers and
thunderstorms.

Generally VFR conditions Tues-Fri with possible sub-VFR
with any shower or thunderstorm each day.


&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will build along the Mid-Atlantic coast this morning
and it will remain nearby through Sunday. A northeast flow this
morning will turn to the east and southeast this afternoon into
tonight. The east to southeast flow will persist through Sunday
before turning to the south Monday ahead of an approaching cold
front. Winds should remain below SCA criteria through Sunday
night...but the gradient will increase a bit for Monday into
Monday night so SCA conditions are possible across portions of the
waters.

A few showers and thunderstorms may impact the waters later Monday
afternoon into Monday night. Locally gusty winds are possible in
any thunderstorms that develop.

Generally sub-SCA conditions on all waters the middle of next
week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tidal anomalies remain around one-quarter to one-half foot above
normal. An onshore flow will persist through the weekend...but it
should remain light. Therefore...the anomalies should not change
too much. This would keep water levels below minor flooding
thresholds...but anomalies will have to be watched throughout this
period for sensitive areas.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...Sears
AVIATION...BJL/Sears
MARINE...BJL/Sears
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 250559
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
159 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary moves south into the Carolina`s tonight. High
pressure builds in from the north over the weekend. The next front
moves into the region Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Isold tstms contg acrs mnly cntrl VA attm. Updated fcst to include
20-40% POPs through 06z/25. Expecting coverage to sloly lessen aft
that through rest of the ngt. Otrw...vrb clds-partly cloudy
ovrngt. Have kept patchy fg by lt tngt. Lows in the m60s-l70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Trof/weak front sags south into the Carolinas with high pressure
nosing in from the north Saturday. Tricky forecast given tsctns
across the south show enuf moisture at different levels for skies to
stay mstly cloudy. Even enough forcing for isltd/sct shwrs to dvlp
giving daytime heating across the south. Meanwhile...north areas see
pt to mstly sunny skies and remain dry. highs in the lwr 80s except
75-80 along the coast...coolest at the beaches along with a NE wind.

The high pushes all moisture south of the area Saturday night.
Expect mstly clr to pt cldy skies. Lows in the 60s. Mstly sunny
Sunday as high pressure dominates. Continued onshore flow keeps it
coolest at the beaches. Highs low to mid 80s west of the Ches Bay,
75-80 along the coast. Mstly clr Sunday night. Lows in the 60s.

Models a bit slower with the next front early next week. Moisture
ahead of it does not increase until after 18z...so expect a dry
first half of the day with sct convection developing across the wrh
zones after 18z. Highs in the mid 80s except upr70s to lwr 80s at
the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Will continue with a chance for showers and thunderstorms across the
entire area Monday night into Tuesday with the lee trough over the
region. The upper support and jet axis stays well north of the area,
and as such do not expect severe weather on Monday night. The upper
trough and associated cold front slowly moves across the area
Tuesday into Tuesday night. This will allow for chances for showers
and thunderstorms to persist into Tuesday evening. Drier and cooler
weather expected for Thursday as high pressure builds across the
area in Northerly flow. With the front being just south of the area,
will need to bring back a small chance for showers and storms on
Friday as the ECMWF and the GFS suggest that a wave will develop
along the front and allow moisture to return to the area.

Tuesday will likely see temps around normal in the upper 80s before
dropping back into the low-mid 80s for Wed-Fri.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 06Z, a cold front was dropping to the VA/NC border with sctd
showers and isltd tstms associated with the boundary. The front
will push swrd thru the Carolinas during today, allowing hi pres
and NNE winds with drier air to filter into the region. Expect
MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilties initially thru abt 14Z/15Z at
the taf sites, then VFR conditions after 17Z/18Z and continuing
into tngt.

OUTLOOK...Dry weather is expected through the weekend, as hi pres
sits just off the New England and Nrn Mid Atlc cst. Additional
restrictions to visibilities and ceilings will be possible once
again Sun morng. There will be a chance for showers and tstms
late Mon into Tue night, with pcpn ending fm west to east on
Wed following the passage of a cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
The cold front front over the area will drift south of the waters
tonight. This will allow for NE winds to develop across the entire
region by Saturday, but with the gradient being rather weak do not
expect winds to increase to much more than 15 kt with seas over the
coastal waters no more than 4 ft. Winds diminish on Sunday as the
high builds across the area, then lee troughiness will allow for the
winds to turn south-southeast on Monday into Tuesday before the next
cold front passes through into Tuesday Night. Overall...the
expectation is that conditions will remain below small craft
advisory criteria through the next 5 days, although Saturday may see
seas of 4 feet across the northern waters.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A River Flood Warning for the James River at Bremo Bluff remains
in effect, with the river going above flood stage this morning.
Holding off on Richmond Westham for now, as the latest guid has
them going just above flood stage this evening. Feel we have some
time to see how the upstream gages react to the rainfall.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MAS
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...MAS/MPR
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG/MRD
HYDROLOGY...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 250559
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
159 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary moves south into the Carolina`s tonight. High
pressure builds in from the north over the weekend. The next front
moves into the region Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Isold tstms contg acrs mnly cntrl VA attm. Updated fcst to include
20-40% POPs through 06z/25. Expecting coverage to sloly lessen aft
that through rest of the ngt. Otrw...vrb clds-partly cloudy
ovrngt. Have kept patchy fg by lt tngt. Lows in the m60s-l70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Trof/weak front sags south into the Carolinas with high pressure
nosing in from the north Saturday. Tricky forecast given tsctns
across the south show enuf moisture at different levels for skies to
stay mstly cloudy. Even enough forcing for isltd/sct shwrs to dvlp
giving daytime heating across the south. Meanwhile...north areas see
pt to mstly sunny skies and remain dry. highs in the lwr 80s except
75-80 along the coast...coolest at the beaches along with a NE wind.

The high pushes all moisture south of the area Saturday night.
Expect mstly clr to pt cldy skies. Lows in the 60s. Mstly sunny
Sunday as high pressure dominates. Continued onshore flow keeps it
coolest at the beaches. Highs low to mid 80s west of the Ches Bay,
75-80 along the coast. Mstly clr Sunday night. Lows in the 60s.

Models a bit slower with the next front early next week. Moisture
ahead of it does not increase until after 18z...so expect a dry
first half of the day with sct convection developing across the wrh
zones after 18z. Highs in the mid 80s except upr70s to lwr 80s at
the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Will continue with a chance for showers and thunderstorms across the
entire area Monday night into Tuesday with the lee trough over the
region. The upper support and jet axis stays well north of the area,
and as such do not expect severe weather on Monday night. The upper
trough and associated cold front slowly moves across the area
Tuesday into Tuesday night. This will allow for chances for showers
and thunderstorms to persist into Tuesday evening. Drier and cooler
weather expected for Thursday as high pressure builds across the
area in Northerly flow. With the front being just south of the area,
will need to bring back a small chance for showers and storms on
Friday as the ECMWF and the GFS suggest that a wave will develop
along the front and allow moisture to return to the area.

Tuesday will likely see temps around normal in the upper 80s before
dropping back into the low-mid 80s for Wed-Fri.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 06Z, a cold front was dropping to the VA/NC border with sctd
showers and isltd tstms associated with the boundary. The front
will push swrd thru the Carolinas during today, allowing hi pres
and NNE winds with drier air to filter into the region. Expect
MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilties initially thru abt 14Z/15Z at
the taf sites, then VFR conditions after 17Z/18Z and continuing
into tngt.

OUTLOOK...Dry weather is expected through the weekend, as hi pres
sits just off the New England and Nrn Mid Atlc cst. Additional
restrictions to visibilities and ceilings will be possible once
again Sun morng. There will be a chance for showers and tstms
late Mon into Tue night, with pcpn ending fm west to east on
Wed following the passage of a cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
The cold front front over the area will drift south of the waters
tonight. This will allow for NE winds to develop across the entire
region by Saturday, but with the gradient being rather weak do not
expect winds to increase to much more than 15 kt with seas over the
coastal waters no more than 4 ft. Winds diminish on Sunday as the
high builds across the area, then lee troughiness will allow for the
winds to turn south-southeast on Monday into Tuesday before the next
cold front passes through into Tuesday Night. Overall...the
expectation is that conditions will remain below small craft
advisory criteria through the next 5 days, although Saturday may see
seas of 4 feet across the northern waters.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A River Flood Warning for the James River at Bremo Bluff remains
in effect, with the river going above flood stage this morning.
Holding off on Richmond Westham for now, as the latest guid has
them going just above flood stage this evening. Feel we have some
time to see how the upstream gages react to the rainfall.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MAS
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...MAS/MPR
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG/MRD
HYDROLOGY...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250550 AAC
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
150 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and dry conditions are expected through the weekend. A weak
frontal system will bring a chance for showers and storms Sunday night
and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
No major changes to the overnight. Temperatures have been updated
with a blend of hires guidance.

Dry and very warm today as large ridge builds over the Upper Ohio
Valley. With plenty of sunshine and a strong push of warmer air
aloft, temperatures will be above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Dry and very warm Sunday as strong ridge holds over the area.

Shower and thunderstorms chances return to the forecast Sunday
night and through the first half of Monday, as a weak cold front
approaches and passes through the area. At this time, will leave
in the mention of thunder, although lack of instability, time of
day, and lack of cold air advection behind the boundary will be a
hindrance toward the development of convection.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Brief respite from rain later Monday, before a second cold front
sweeps through the area Monday night. Models are not showing much
activity with the second front, but it will usher in cooler air
Tuesday and Wednesday. High pressure will provide a dry and
seasonable end to the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
We still expect MVFR fog development during the predawn hours at
most terminals, with IFR possible at MGW/LBE where the ground
remains moist and higher dewpoints are in place. Fog will
dissipate by midmorning, with VFR conditions and light winds
forecast for the remainder of the TAF period.

.OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Restrictions are possible with a Sunday night/Monday cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250550 AAC
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
150 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and dry conditions are expected through the weekend. A weak
frontal system will bring a chance for showers and storms Sunday night
and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
No major changes to the overnight. Temperatures have been updated
with a blend of hires guidance.

Dry and very warm today as large ridge builds over the Upper Ohio
Valley. With plenty of sunshine and a strong push of warmer air
aloft, temperatures will be above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Dry and very warm Sunday as strong ridge holds over the area.

Shower and thunderstorms chances return to the forecast Sunday
night and through the first half of Monday, as a weak cold front
approaches and passes through the area. At this time, will leave
in the mention of thunder, although lack of instability, time of
day, and lack of cold air advection behind the boundary will be a
hindrance toward the development of convection.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Brief respite from rain later Monday, before a second cold front
sweeps through the area Monday night. Models are not showing much
activity with the second front, but it will usher in cooler air
Tuesday and Wednesday. High pressure will provide a dry and
seasonable end to the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
We still expect MVFR fog development during the predawn hours at
most terminals, with IFR possible at MGW/LBE where the ground
remains moist and higher dewpoints are in place. Fog will
dissipate by midmorning, with VFR conditions and light winds
forecast for the remainder of the TAF period.

.OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Restrictions are possible with a Sunday night/Monday cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250535
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
135 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and dry conditions are expected through the weekend. A weak
frontal system will bring a chance for showers and storms Sunday night
and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
No major changes to the overnight. Temperatures have been updated
with a blend of hires guidance.

Dry and very warm today as large ridge builds over the Upper Ohio
Valley. With plenty of sunshine and a strong push of warmer air
aloft, temperatures will be above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Dry and very warm Sunday as strong ridge holds over the area.

Shower and thunderstorms chances return to the forecast Sunday
night and through the first half of Monday, as a weak cold front
approaches and passes through the area. At this time, will leave
in the mention of thunder, although lack of instability, time of
day, and lack of cold air advection behind the boundary will be a
hindrance toward the development of convection.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Brief respite from rain later Monday, before a second cold front
sweeps through the area Monday night. Models are not showing much
activity with the second front, but it will usher in cooler air
Tuesday and Wednesday. High pressure will provide a dry and
seasonable end to the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
We still expect MVFR fog development during the predawn hours at
most terminals, with IFR possible at MGW/LBE where the ground
remains moist and higher dewpoints are in place. Fog will
dissipate by midmorning, with VFR conditions and light winds
forecast for the remainder of the TAF period.

.OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Restrictions are possible with a Sunday night/Monday cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPHI 250152
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
952 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
This weekend, a high pressure system will build over the region.
A frontal system will move through our area by mid week. A high
pressure system will build over our region later in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
The remaining showers over Chester County and Cecil County will
will dissipate shortly. The light northeasterly flow should bring
dry air into our region. However, we continue to think that low
clouds and fog will expand tonight in areas that received heavy
rainfall today.

Minimum temperatures should be mainly in the upper 50s and lower
60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
High pressure will continue to build in Saturday. There will
likely be some lingering clouds and fog, especially along the NJ
shore areas during the morning. After the mid-morning, mostly
Sunny skies are expected. Winds will continue to be from the E or
NE at 5 to 10 mph. High temperatures will reach into the low to
mid 80s in most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Saturday night: A clear night with light winds and conditions
favorable for radiational cooling. Some patchy fog is possible as
well just before sunrise when higher RH values correspond with the
light winds.

Sunday and Sunday night: High pressure will be moving eastward
and offshore resulting in another dry but hotter day. A look at
actual model data shows the ECMWF to be several degrees warmer
than the GFS. Boundary layer temperature output on both occasions
supports the model output. Given the dry conditions from
Philadelphia and points north this forecast and recent cool biases
with model data, this forecast is in line with the warmer ECMWF.
High temperatures will push the mid and upper 80`s in most of the
region, with the highest readings in the Lehigh valley and the
cooler readings down by the shore. Southerly flow will result in a
warmer and muggy night as well Sunday night.

Monday through Wednesday: A cold frontal boundary will move from
the Great lakes southwestward through the region in this time
frame. A few mid-level shortwaves ahead of this front will likely
serve as triggers for scattered showers and thunderstorms in a
warm and humid air mass. The most likely window for rain based on
current ensemble data stretches from Monday night through Tuesday
night. However, given uncertainty in timing and coverage will
continue with chance pops. This will likely not dent the drought
across the northern half of the region. The actual cold front will
likely move through on Wednesday with a cooler and drier airmass
moving in behind the front. Winds will be southerly from 5 to 15
mph throughout the early part of the week.

Wednesday night through Friday: High pressure will build
southeastward into the region with a cooler and drier airmass.
Leaned at or warmer than ensemble guidance here given the dry
ground and recent temperature biases the past few weeks. Winds
generally westerly to southwesterly at around 10 mph.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Low clouds remained over KACY and KMIV this evening. The low
clouds are forecast to expand northward overnight and they should
impact KILG, KPHL and KPNE. There seems to be a lesser chance that
they will reach KTTN, KABE and KRDG. However, we have maintained
their mention at those three locations for the sake of
continuity. Conditions are expected to improve rapidly on
Saturday morning with the sky becoming mostly clear by 1400z. VFR
conditions are then anticipated for the balance of the day.

A light northeast to east wind is expected for overnight and
Saturday with the wind direction forecast to veer toward the
southeast late in the day.

Outlook...
Sunday and Sunday night: VFR. Southwest winds around 10 knots.

Monday through Tuesday night: Mainly VFR. Some scattered
thunderstorms will reduce vsbys and ceilings to MVFR and IFR at
times. The highest chances for any storms are on Tuesday.
Southwest winds from 5 to 15 knots, highest Monday and Tuesday
afternoon.

Wednesday: VFR. Northwest winds around 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Onshore flow will continue overnight and Saturday with high
pressure building in from the north. Seas have been steady around
3-4 ft and this will continue tonight. Seas will tick up closer
to SCA criteria seas Saturday. Confid is still not the greatest
however, we`ll just mention 4 ft seas attm and hold on the SCA
flag for now. Fair weather expected Saturday.

Outlook...
Saturday night through Wednesday:

Seas will remain under five feet throughout the period. The
highest seas around four feet are likely to occur into Sunday then
again on Tuesday. Top wind gusts will top out around 20 knots both
Monday and Tuesday afternoons from the south.

RIP CURRENTS...
Moderate risk for rip currents on Sat with the onshore flow. High
pressure will bring lighter winds and lowering seas Sun. Risk on
Sun will likely be less than Sat.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Synopsis...JJ
Near Term...Iovino
Short Term...O`Hara
Long Term...Gaines
Aviation...Gaines/Iovino
Marine...Gaines/O`Hara




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 250149
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
949 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary moves south into the Carolina`s tonight. High
pressure builds in from the north over the weekend. The next front
moves into the region Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Isold tstms contg acrs mnly cntrl VA attm. Updated fcst to include
20-40% POPs through 06z/25. Expecting coverage to sloly lessen aft
that through rest of the ngt. Otrw...vrb clds-partly cloudy
ovrngt. Have kept patchy fg by lt tngt. Lows in the m60s-l70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Trof/weak front sags south into the Carolinas with high pressure
nosing in from the north Saturday. Tricky forecast given tsctns
across the south show enuf moisture at different levels for skies to
stay mstly cloudy. Even enough forcing for isltd/sct shwrs to dvlp
giving daytime heating across the south. Meanwhile...north areas see
pt to mstly sunny skies and remain dry. highs in the lwr 80s except
75-80 along the coast...coolest at the beaches along with a NE wind.

The high pushes all moisture south of the area Saturday night.
Expect mstly clr to pt cldy skies. Lows in the 60s. Mstly sunny
Sunday as high pressure dominates. Continued onshore flow keeps it
coolest at the beaches. Highs low to mid 80s west of the Ches Bay,
75-80 along the coast. Mstly clr Sunday night. Lows in the 60s.

Models a bit slower with the next front early next week. Moisture
ahead of it does not increase until after 18z...so expect a dry
first half of the day with sct convection developing across the wrh
zones after 18z. Highs in the mid 80s except upr70s to lwr 80s at
the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Will continue with a chance for showers and thunderstorms across the
entire area Monday night into Tuesday with the lee trough over the
region. The upper support and jet axis stays well north of the area,
and as such do not expect severe weather on Monday night. The upper
trough and associated cold front slowly moves across the area
Tuesday into Tuesday night. This will allow for chances for showers
and thunderstorms to persist into Tuesday evening. Drier and cooler
weather expected for Thursday as high pressure builds across the
area in Northerly flow. With the front being just south of the area,
will need to bring back a small chance for showers and storms on
Friday as the ECMWF and the GFS suggest that a wave will develop
along the front and allow moisture to return to the area.

Tuesday will likely see temps around normal in the upper 80s before
dropping back into the low-mid 80s for Wed-Fri.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 00Z...Onshore winds were developing at the TAF sites as a cold
front slides to the south of the area. The front will reach North
Carolina overnight and continue south into Georgia by Sunday. The
onshroe winds will increase low level moisture with MVFR/IFR
ceilings and visibilties expected. IFR has already developed at SBY
and MVFR or IFR can be expected to develop between 06 and 10z
elsewhere. Conditions will slowly to improve Saturday morning with
winds continuing from the east.

OUTLOOK...Dry weather is expected through the weekend as high
pressure builds from the north. Additional restrictions to
visibilities and ceilings will be possible once again Sunday
morning. There will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms late
Monday through Tuesday night with precipitation ending from west to
east on Wednesday following the passage of a cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
The cold front front over the area will drift south of the waters
tonight. This will allow for NE winds to develop across the entire
region by Saturday, but with the gradient being rather weak do not
expect winds to increase to much more than 15 kt with seas over the
coastal waters no more than 4 ft. Winds diminish on Sunday as the
high builds across the area, then lee troughiness will allow for the
winds to turn south-southeast on Monday into Tuesday before the next
cold front passes through into Tuesday Night. Overall...the
expectation is that conditions will remain below small craft
advisory criteria through the next 5 days, although Saturday may see
seas of 4 feet across the northern waters.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
After viewing the morning data and coord with the RFC, went ahead
and issued a River Flood Warning for the James River at Bremo
Bluff with the river going above flood stage Saturday morning.
This based on the runoff from yesterdays heavy rainfall across the
headwaters. Decided to hold off on Richmond Westham for now as the
latest guid has them going just above flood stage Saturday evening.
Feel we have some time to see how the upstream gages react to the
rainfall.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MAS
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...MAS/MPR
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MRD
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KLWX 250146
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
946 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving front will slide south of the region tonight. High
pressure will dominate over the weekend. A cold front will
approach the area Monday before crossing the area Tuesday. High
pressure will return for mid-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 9pm...the surface trough is along the southern periphery of
the cwa and will continue to shift south this evening. Convective
storms will also continue to shift south with this front. Easterly
flow has taken over. Guidance is suggesting a low cloud deck will
develop...along with patchy fog late tonight. Lows will be in the
mid to upper 60s. Low clouds and patchy fog early Saturday should
break for sun over most of the area and highs will return to the
low-mid 80s. However, with drier air pushing in from the north, it
should be more comfortable than Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Ridge builds across the area aloft on Sunday then gets pushed east
of the area by a shortwave on Monday. At the surface...high
pressure will shift east of the area on Sunday but a tongue will
extend southwest across the region. By Monday the next cold front
will be approaching from the west. The high will promote possible
patchy fog early Sunday...otherwise sunshine will dominate and it
will be slightly warmer than Saturday. By Monday clouds will
increase and showers and thunderstorms will spread into the area
by afternoon. Will need to watch any severe threat.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Seasonably warm and humid conditions are expected Monday in
southerly flow. A cold front will move in from the west during the
day and may trigger showers and thunderstorms. Shear looks like it
won`t be as impressive as with recent events, but still decent
veering (southerly at the surface to westerly at 500 MB).

The front may get hung up over eastern parts of the area Monday
night into Tuesday before weakening. High pressure will bring a
return to dry weather briefly Tuesday night into Wednesday before
another system approaches late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR ceilings in easterly flow this evening with potential IFR
ceilings with mvfr visibilities late tonight. Improvement by
Saturday afternoon with high pressure followed by perhaps some
more patchy fog Saturday night into Sunday morning. VFR Sunday aft
to Monday morning, then sub- VFR possible in Monday
afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Backdoor cold front now south of the Chesapeake Bay region with
easterly flow around 15 knots through Monday morning as high
pressure noses in from the north and northeast through the
weekend. Cold front approaching Monday may bring SCA gusts via
southerly channeling. A brief period of SCA level gusts is
possible again Tuesday in westerly flow as high pressure builds in
behind the front.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/RCM
NEAR TERM...BAJ/RCM
SHORT TERM...RCM
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...BAJ/RCM/DFH
MARINE...BAJ/RCM/DFH




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250145
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
945 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
After some areas of dense fog tomorrow morning, warmer and dry
conditions are expected through the weekend. A weak frontal system
will bring a quick chance for rain on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Diurnal cumulus has died a swift death and the showers have
likewise dissipated along with it. Clear skies will become very
commonplace over the next couple of hours and inversions should
form forthwith. That said, the boundary layer didn`t dry out very
efficiently today, and a fair amount of soil moisture remains from
recent rain. As a result, dewpoints will likely come up a bit
overnight underneath the inversions. With strong radiational
cooling, this seems likely to result in a bit of fog around the
area. Even still, lows will trend back decidedly from recently
nights. Fries

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Warmer and dry conditions expected Saturday and Sunday as a
seasonably strong (locally 590+ dam heights) 500mb ridge axis
builds toward the area. Should reach mid-upper 80s tomorrow, and
possibly break 90F on Sunday (Ohio/WV panhandle especially) as 19C
850mb temperatures and increasing southwest surface flow move into
the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Shower and thunderstorms chances return to the forecast Sunday
night as moisture pools ahead of the next front. Above normal
temperatures at the start of the period will become more
seasonable with the arrival of the front Monday. Superblend
guidance was used as a basis for the grids.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected much of the time through Saturday
under high pressure. The exception is expected to be mvfr fog
development late tonight/early Saturday morning, with a period of
IFR for ports south of PIT where higher dewpoints are observed.

.OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Restrictions are possible with a Sunday night/Monday cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 250011
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
811 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary moves south into the Carolina`s tonight. High
pressure builds in from the north over the weekend. The next front
moves into the region Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Scattered convection will be based on track of the s/w trof crossing
the area this evening as well as outflow boundarys from the storms
going on across the northern Delmarva. Area remains in slight risk
for damaging winds/large hail, with best chances before sunset using
the logic that for any storm to become severe it will have to act on
the available cape/shear from todays heating and leftover boundarys
from previous convection. Expect any convection to weaken then
diminish with only low chc pops overnight as the boundary sags south
and winds to turn NE. The other concern will be for patchy fog to
form...especially in areas that see rain. Kept chc pops for now and
added patchy fog after midnight. Lows in the mid 60s north to lwr
70s south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Trof/weak front sags south into the Carolinas with high pressure
nosing in from the north Saturday. Tricky forecast given tsctns
across the south show enuf moisture at different levels for skies to
stay mstly cloudy. Even enough forcing for isltd/sct shwrs to dvlp
giving daytime heating across the south. Meanwhile...north areas see
pt to mstly sunny skies and remain dry. highs in the lwr 80s except
75-80 along the coast...coolest at the beaches along with a NE wind.

The high pushes all moisture south of the area Saturday night.
Expect mstly clr to pt cldy skies. Lows in the 60s. Mstly sunny
Sunday as high pressure dominates. Continued onshore flow keeps it
coolest at the beaches. Highs low to mid 80s west of the Ches Bay,
75-80 along the coast. Mstly clr Sunday night. Lows in the 60s.

Models a bit slower with the next front early next week. Moisture
ahead of it does not increase until after 18z...so expect a dry
first half of the day with sct convection developing across the wrh
zones after 18z. Highs in the mid 80s except upr70s to lwr 80s at
the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Will continue with a chance for showers and thunderstorms across the
entire area Monday night into Tuesday with the lee trough over the
region. The upper support and jet axis stays well north of the area,
and as such do not expect severe weather on Monday night. The upper
trough and associated cold front slowly moves across the area
Tuesday into Tuesday night. This will allow for chances for showers
and thunderstorms to persist into Tuesday evening. Drier and cooler
weather expected for Thursday as high pressure builds across the
area in Northerly flow. With the front being just south of the area,
will need to bring back a small chance for showers and storms on
Friday as the ECMWF and the GFS suggest that a wave will develop
along the front and allow moisture to return to the area.

Tuesday will likely see temps around normal in the upper 80s before
dropping back into the low-mid 80s for Wed-Fri.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 00Z...Onshore winds were developing at the TAF sites as a cold
front slides to the south of the area. The front will reach North
Carolina overnight and continue south into Georgia by Sunday. The
onshroe winds will increase low level moisture with MVFR/IFR
ceilings and visibilties expected. IFR has already developed at SBY
and MVFR or IFR can be expected to develop between 06 and 10z
elsewhere. Conditions will slowly to improve Saturday morning with
winds continuing from the east.

OUTLOOK...Dry weather is expected through the weekend as high
pressure builds from the north. Additional restrictions to
visibilities and ceilings will be possible once again Sunday
morning. There will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms late
Monday through Tuesday night with precipitation ending from west to
east on Wednesday following the passage of a cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
The cold front front over the area will drift south of the waters
tonight. This will allow for NE winds to develop across the entire
region by Saturday, but with the gradient being rather weak do not
expect winds to increase to much more than 15 kt with seas over the
coastal waters no more than 4 ft. Winds diminish on Sunday as the
high builds across the area, then lee troughiness will allow for the
winds to turn south-southeast on Monday into Tuesday before the next
cold front passes through into Tuesday Night. Overall...the
expectation is that conditions will remain below small craft
advisory criteria through the next 5 days, although Saturday may see
seas of 4 feet across the northern waters.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
After viewing the morning data and coord with the RFC, went ahead
and issued a River Flood Warning for the James River at Bremo
Bluff with the river going above flood stage Saturday morning.
This based on the runoff from yesterdays heavy rainfall across the
headwaters. Decided to hold off on Richmond Westham for now as the
latest guid has them going just above flood stage Saturday evening.
Feel we have some time to see how the upstream gages react to the
rainfall.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS/MPR
SHORT TERM...MAS/MPR
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MRD
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 250011
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
811 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary moves south into the Carolina`s tonight. High
pressure builds in from the north over the weekend. The next front
moves into the region Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Scattered convection will be based on track of the s/w trof crossing
the area this evening as well as outflow boundarys from the storms
going on across the northern Delmarva. Area remains in slight risk
for damaging winds/large hail, with best chances before sunset using
the logic that for any storm to become severe it will have to act on
the available cape/shear from todays heating and leftover boundarys
from previous convection. Expect any convection to weaken then
diminish with only low chc pops overnight as the boundary sags south
and winds to turn NE. The other concern will be for patchy fog to
form...especially in areas that see rain. Kept chc pops for now and
added patchy fog after midnight. Lows in the mid 60s north to lwr
70s south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Trof/weak front sags south into the Carolinas with high pressure
nosing in from the north Saturday. Tricky forecast given tsctns
across the south show enuf moisture at different levels for skies to
stay mstly cloudy. Even enough forcing for isltd/sct shwrs to dvlp
giving daytime heating across the south. Meanwhile...north areas see
pt to mstly sunny skies and remain dry. highs in the lwr 80s except
75-80 along the coast...coolest at the beaches along with a NE wind.

The high pushes all moisture south of the area Saturday night.
Expect mstly clr to pt cldy skies. Lows in the 60s. Mstly sunny
Sunday as high pressure dominates. Continued onshore flow keeps it
coolest at the beaches. Highs low to mid 80s west of the Ches Bay,
75-80 along the coast. Mstly clr Sunday night. Lows in the 60s.

Models a bit slower with the next front early next week. Moisture
ahead of it does not increase until after 18z...so expect a dry
first half of the day with sct convection developing across the wrh
zones after 18z. Highs in the mid 80s except upr70s to lwr 80s at
the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Will continue with a chance for showers and thunderstorms across the
entire area Monday night into Tuesday with the lee trough over the
region. The upper support and jet axis stays well north of the area,
and as such do not expect severe weather on Monday night. The upper
trough and associated cold front slowly moves across the area
Tuesday into Tuesday night. This will allow for chances for showers
and thunderstorms to persist into Tuesday evening. Drier and cooler
weather expected for Thursday as high pressure builds across the
area in Northerly flow. With the front being just south of the area,
will need to bring back a small chance for showers and storms on
Friday as the ECMWF and the GFS suggest that a wave will develop
along the front and allow moisture to return to the area.

Tuesday will likely see temps around normal in the upper 80s before
dropping back into the low-mid 80s for Wed-Fri.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 00Z...Onshore winds were developing at the TAF sites as a cold
front slides to the south of the area. The front will reach North
Carolina overnight and continue south into Georgia by Sunday. The
onshroe winds will increase low level moisture with MVFR/IFR
ceilings and visibilties expected. IFR has already developed at SBY
and MVFR or IFR can be expected to develop between 06 and 10z
elsewhere. Conditions will slowly to improve Saturday morning with
winds continuing from the east.

OUTLOOK...Dry weather is expected through the weekend as high
pressure builds from the north. Additional restrictions to
visibilities and ceilings will be possible once again Sunday
morning. There will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms late
Monday through Tuesday night with precipitation ending from west to
east on Wednesday following the passage of a cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
The cold front front over the area will drift south of the waters
tonight. This will allow for NE winds to develop across the entire
region by Saturday, but with the gradient being rather weak do not
expect winds to increase to much more than 15 kt with seas over the
coastal waters no more than 4 ft. Winds diminish on Sunday as the
high builds across the area, then lee troughiness will allow for the
winds to turn south-southeast on Monday into Tuesday before the next
cold front passes through into Tuesday Night. Overall...the
expectation is that conditions will remain below small craft
advisory criteria through the next 5 days, although Saturday may see
seas of 4 feet across the northern waters.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
After viewing the morning data and coord with the RFC, went ahead
and issued a River Flood Warning for the James River at Bremo
Bluff with the river going above flood stage Saturday morning.
This based on the runoff from yesterdays heavy rainfall across the
headwaters. Decided to hold off on Richmond Westham for now as the
latest guid has them going just above flood stage Saturday evening.
Feel we have some time to see how the upstream gages react to the
rainfall.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS/MPR
SHORT TERM...MAS/MPR
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MRD
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250008
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
808 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
After some areas of dense fog tomorrow morning, warmer and dry
conditions are expected through the weekend. A weak frontal system
will bring a quick chance for rain on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Entrainment of dry air from aloft as well as dry air advection in
the boundary layer is already tolling the death knell for cumulus
over much of the CWA north of the Mason-Dixon line. South of
there, loss of diurnal instability combined with the spread of
cold pools from prior convection has really eviscerated the
updrafts that were previously present such that really only an
isolated shower or two will be possible through sunset. After that
time, strong inversions with lower dewpoints than the last few
nights will result in far cooler conditions overnight. However,
due to a late start to dry air entrainment and advection today,
dewpoints are unlikely to have fallen off enough to avoid fog
generally from Pittsburgh southward. Thus, some patchy fog was
maintain in the forecast. Fries

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Warmer and dry conditions expected Saturday and Sunday as a
seasonably strong (locally 590+ dam heights) 500mb ridge axis
builds toward the area. Should reach mid-upper 80s tomorrow, and
possibly break 90F on Sunday (Ohio/WV panhandle especially) as 19C
850mb temperatures and increasing southwest surface flow move into
the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Shower and thunderstorms chances return to the forecast Sunday
night as moisture pools ahead of the next front. Above normal
temperatures at the start of the period will become more
seasonable with the arrival of the front Monday. Superblend
guidance was used as a basis for the grids.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected much of the time through Saturday
under high pressure. The exception is expected to be mvfr fog
development late tonight/early Saturday morning, with a period of
IFR for ports south of PIT where higher dewpoints are observed.

.OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Restrictions are possible with a Sunday night/Monday cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250008
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
808 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
After some areas of dense fog tomorrow morning, warmer and dry
conditions are expected through the weekend. A weak frontal system
will bring a quick chance for rain on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Entrainment of dry air from aloft as well as dry air advection in
the boundary layer is already tolling the death knell for cumulus
over much of the CWA north of the Mason-Dixon line. South of
there, loss of diurnal instability combined with the spread of
cold pools from prior convection has really eviscerated the
updrafts that were previously present such that really only an
isolated shower or two will be possible through sunset. After that
time, strong inversions with lower dewpoints than the last few
nights will result in far cooler conditions overnight. However,
due to a late start to dry air entrainment and advection today,
dewpoints are unlikely to have fallen off enough to avoid fog
generally from Pittsburgh southward. Thus, some patchy fog was
maintain in the forecast. Fries

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Warmer and dry conditions expected Saturday and Sunday as a
seasonably strong (locally 590+ dam heights) 500mb ridge axis
builds toward the area. Should reach mid-upper 80s tomorrow, and
possibly break 90F on Sunday (Ohio/WV panhandle especially) as 19C
850mb temperatures and increasing southwest surface flow move into
the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Shower and thunderstorms chances return to the forecast Sunday
night as moisture pools ahead of the next front. Above normal
temperatures at the start of the period will become more
seasonable with the arrival of the front Monday. Superblend
guidance was used as a basis for the grids.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected much of the time through Saturday
under high pressure. The exception is expected to be mvfr fog
development late tonight/early Saturday morning, with a period of
IFR for ports south of PIT where higher dewpoints are observed.

.OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Restrictions are possible with a Sunday night/Monday cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 242306
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
706 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers will continue mainly south of I-70 through
early evening along the remnants of a stalled frontal zone. After
some areas of dense fog tomorrow morning, warmer and dry
conditions are expected through the weekend. A weak frontal system
will bring a quick chance for rain on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Entrainment of dry air from aloft as well as dry air advection in
the boundary layer is already tolling the death knell for cumulus
over much of the CWA north of the Mason-Dixon line. South of
there, prior convection has already spread cold pools across most
of the CWA in northern WV and western MD such that anything that
does propagate into this air mass is unlikely to manage very much
development at this time. Skies were summarily axed back for the
remainder of the evening and cleared overnight, as a result. PoPs
were also refined to better focus exclusively on the SE CWA, also.
Fries

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Residual moisture pooling, clearing skies and stagnated flow
within the arriving ridge axis should yield a somewhat favorable
opportunity for at least patchy dense fog, especially in the river
valleys.

Otherwise, warmer and dry conditions expected Saturday and Sunday
as a seasonably strong (locally 590+ dam heights) 500mb ridge
axis builds toward the area. Should reach mid-upper 80s tomorrow,
and possibly break 90F on Sunday (Ohio/WV panhandle especially) as
19C 850mb temperatures and increasing southwest surface flow move
into the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Shower and thunderstorms chances return to the forecast Sunday
night as moisture pools ahead of the next front. Above normal
temperatures at the start of the period will become more
seasonable with the arrival of the front Monday. Superblend
guidance was used as a basis for the grids.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected much of the time through Saturday
under high pressure. The exception is expected to be mvfr fog
development late tonight/early Saturday morning, with a period of
IFR for ports south of PIT where higher dewpoints are observed.

.OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Restrictions are possible with a Sunday night/Monday cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 242306
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
706 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers will continue mainly south of I-70 through
early evening along the remnants of a stalled frontal zone. After
some areas of dense fog tomorrow morning, warmer and dry
conditions are expected through the weekend. A weak frontal system
will bring a quick chance for rain on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Entrainment of dry air from aloft as well as dry air advection in
the boundary layer is already tolling the death knell for cumulus
over much of the CWA north of the Mason-Dixon line. South of
there, prior convection has already spread cold pools across most
of the CWA in northern WV and western MD such that anything that
does propagate into this air mass is unlikely to manage very much
development at this time. Skies were summarily axed back for the
remainder of the evening and cleared overnight, as a result. PoPs
were also refined to better focus exclusively on the SE CWA, also.
Fries

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Residual moisture pooling, clearing skies and stagnated flow
within the arriving ridge axis should yield a somewhat favorable
opportunity for at least patchy dense fog, especially in the river
valleys.

Otherwise, warmer and dry conditions expected Saturday and Sunday
as a seasonably strong (locally 590+ dam heights) 500mb ridge
axis builds toward the area. Should reach mid-upper 80s tomorrow,
and possibly break 90F on Sunday (Ohio/WV panhandle especially) as
19C 850mb temperatures and increasing southwest surface flow move
into the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Shower and thunderstorms chances return to the forecast Sunday
night as moisture pools ahead of the next front. Above normal
temperatures at the start of the period will become more
seasonable with the arrival of the front Monday. Superblend
guidance was used as a basis for the grids.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected much of the time through Saturday
under high pressure. The exception is expected to be mvfr fog
development late tonight/early Saturday morning, with a period of
IFR for ports south of PIT where higher dewpoints are observed.

.OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Restrictions are possible with a Sunday night/Monday cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPHI 242145
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
545 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
This weekend, a high pressure system will build over the region.
A frontal system will move through our area by mid week. A high
pressure system will build over our region later in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
The remaining showers and isolated thunderstorms in the western
and southern parts of our forecast area will dissipate during the
early evening hours with the loss of daytime heating.

The developing light northeasterly flow should bring dry air into
our region. However, we continue to think that low clouds and fog
will form tonight in areas that received heavy rainfall today.

Minimum temperatures should be mainly in the upper 50s and lower
60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
High pressure will continue to build in Saturday. There will
likely be some lingering clouds and fog, especially along the NJ
shore areas during the morning. After the mid-morning, mostly
Sunny skies are expected. Winds will continue to be from the E or
NE at 5 to 10 mph. High temperatures will reach into the low to
mid 80s in most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Saturday night: A clear night with light winds and conditions
favorable for radiational cooling. Some patchy fog is possible as
well just before sunrise when higher RH values correspond with the
light winds.

Sunday and Sunday night: High pressure will be moving eastward
and offshore resulting in another dry but hotter day. A look at
actual model data shows the ECMWF to be several degrees warmer
than the GFS. Boundary layer temperature output on both occasions
supports the model output. Given the dry conditions from
Philadelphia and points north this forecast and recent cool biases
with model data, this forecast is in line with the warmer ECMWF.
High temperatures will push the mid and upper 80`s in most of the
region, with the highest readings in the Lehigh valley and the
cooler readings down by the shore. Southerly flow will result in a
warmer and muggy night as well Sunday night.

Monday through Wednesday: A cold frontal boundary will move from
the Great lakes southwestward through the region in this time
frame. A few mid-level shortwaves ahead of this front will likely
serve as triggers for scattered showers and thunderstorms in a
warm and humid air mass. The most likely window for rain based on
current ensemble data stretches from Monday night through Tuesday
night. However, given uncertainty in timing and coverage will
continue with chance pops. This will likely not dent the drought
across the northern half of the region. The actual cold front will
likely move through on Wednesday with a cooler and drier airmass
moving in behind the front. Winds will be southerly from 5 to 15
mph throughout the early part of the week.

Wednesday night through Friday: High pressure will build
southeastward into the region with a cooler and drier airmass.
Leaned at or warmer than ensemble guidance here given the dry
ground and recent temperature biases the past few weeks. Winds
generally westerly to southwesterly at around 10 mph.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...The showers will diminish this evening then skies will
clearing from N to S. We will likely hold onto some low clouds
across the srn areas. Any breaks will result in fog development
across the srn areas. Low clouds could affect KPHL/KPNE and up
into KTTN also. We have decided to preserve some of the earlier
clouds in the fcst. The guidance doesn`t mention much in the way
of low clouds, but the pattern seems to favor it. Winds tonight
light from the NE or E.

Sat...VFR conditions expected after any low clouds or morning fog
dissipates. Winds will be east at around 10 knots by early
afternoon.

Outlook...
Sunday and Sunday night: VFR. Southwest winds around 10 knots.

Monday through Tuesday night: Mainly VFR. Some scattered
thunderstorms will reduce vsbys and ceilings to MVFR and IFR at
times. The highest chances for any storms are on Tuesday.
Southwest winds from 5 to 15 knots, highest Monday and Tuesday
afternoon.

Wednesday: VFR. Northwest winds around 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Onshore flow will continue tonight and Saturday with high
pressure building in from the north. Scattered thunderstorms
across the srn NJ and DE waters this afternoon will diminish this
evening. patchy fog is possible tonight. Seas have been steady
around 3-4 ft so far today and this will continue tonight. Seas
will tick up closer to SCA criteria seas Saturday. Confid is still
not the greatest however, we`ll just mention 4 ft seas attm and
hold on the SCA flag for now. Fair weather expected Saturday.

Outlook...
Saturday night through Wednesday:

Seas will remain under five feet throughout the period. The
highest seas around four feet are likely to occur into Sunday then
again on Tuesday. Top wind gusts will top out around 20 knots both
Monday and Tuesday afternoons from the south.

RIP CURRENTS...
Moderate risk for rip currents the rest of today and probably Sat
also. High pressure will bring lighter winds and lowering seas
Sun. Risk on Sun will likely be less than Sat.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Synopsis...JJ
Near Term...Iovino
Short Term...O`Hara
Long Term...Gaines
Aviation...Gaines/O`Hara
Marine...Gaines/O`Hara




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 242101
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
501 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers will continue mainly south of I-70 through
early evening along the remnants of a stalled frontal zone. After
some areas of dense fog tomorrow morning, warmer and dry
conditions are expected through the weekend. A weak frontal system
will bring a quick chance for rain on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Entrainment of dry air from aloft as well as dry air advection in
the boundary layer is already tolling the death knell for cumulus
over much of the CWA north of the Mason-Dixon line. South of
there, prior convection has already spread cold pools across most
of the CWA in northern WV and western MD such that anything that
does propagate into this air mass is unlikely to manage very much
development at this time. Skies were summarily axed back for the
remainder of the evening and cleared overnight, as a result. PoPs
were also refined to better focus exclusively on the SE CWA, also.
Fries

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Residual moisture pooling, clearing skies and stagnated flow
within the arriving ridge axis should yield a somewhat favorable
opportunity for at least patchy dense fog, especially in the river
valleys.

Otherwise, warmer and dry conditions expected Saturday and Sunday
as a seasonably strong (locally 590+ dam heights) 500mb ridge
axis builds toward the area. Should reach mid-upper 80s tomorrow,
and possibly break 90F on Sunday (Ohio/WV panhandle especially) as
19C 850mb temperatures and increasing southwest surface flow move
into the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Shower and thunderstorms chances return to the forecast Sunday
night as moisture pools ahead of the next front. Above normal
temperatures at the start of the period will become more
seasonable with the arrival of the front Monday. Superblend
guidance was used as a basis for the grids.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions area wide. isolated showers will pop up south of
interstate 70 during the afternoon, but confidence is too low for
inclusion in MGW at this time. A VFR evening is expected, with
MVFR fog forming after midnight.

.OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Potential exists for pre-dawn fog development Saturday morning.
Otherwise, the next chance for general restrictions is expected with
a Monday cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 242027
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
427 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary moves south into the Carolina`s tonight. High
pressure builds in from the north over the weekend. The next front
moves into the region Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Scattered convection will be based on track of the s/w trof crossing
the area this evening as well as outflow boundarys from the storms
going on across the northern Delmarva. Area remains in slight risk
for damaging winds/large hail, with best chances before sunset using
the logic that for any storm to become severe it will have to act on
the available cape/shear from todays heating and leftover boundarys
from previous convection. Expect any convection to weaken then
diminish with only low chc pops overnight as the boundary sags south
and winds to turn NE. The other concern will be for patchy fog to
form...especially in areas that see rain. Kept chc pops for now and
added patchy fog after midnight. Lows in the mid 60s north to lwr
70s south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Trof/weak front sags south into the Carolinas with high pressure
nosing in from the north Saturday. Tricky forecast given tsctns
across the south show enuf moisture at different levels for skies to
stay mstly cloudy. Even enough forcing for isltd/sct shwrs to dvlp
giving daytime heating across the south. Meanwhile...north areas see
pt to mstly sunny skies and remain dry. highs in the lwr 80s except
75-80 along the coast...coolest at the beaches along with a NE wind.

The high pushes all moisture south of the area Saturday night.
Expect mstly clr to pt cldy skies. Lows in the 60s. Mstly sunny
Sunday as high pressure dominates. Continued onshore flow keeps it
coolest at the beaches. Highs low to mid 80s west of the Ches Bay,
75-80 along the coast. Mstly clr Sunday night. Lows in the 60s.

Models a bit slower with the next front early next week. Moisture
ahead of it does not increase until after 18z...so expect a dry
first half of the day with sct convection developing across the wrh
zones after 18z. Highs in the mid 80s except upr70s to lwr 80s at
the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Will continue with a chance for showers and thunderstorms across the
entire area Monday night into Tuesday with the lee trough over the
region. The upper support and jet axis stays well north of the area,
and as such do not expect severe weather on Monday night. The upper
trough and associated cold front slowly moves across the area
Tuesday into Tuesday night. This will allow for chances for showers
and thunderstorms to persist into Tuesday evening. Drier and cooler
weather expected for Thursday as high pressure builds across the
area in Northerly flow. With the front being just south of the area,
will need to bring back a small chance for showers and storms on
Friday as the ECMWF and the GFS suggest that a wave will develop
along the front and allow moisture to return to the area.

Tuesday will likely see temps around normal in the upper 80s before
dropping back into the low-mid 80s for Wed-Fri.


&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Nice VFR conditions across the region at 18Z with a few widely
scattered showers. Frontal bndry and broad area of low pressure
cont to lie across the region and will be the focus for any
developing showers and tstms this aftn/evening. Winds will
generally be light less than 10 kt but direction will depend on
location of the front.

The front will move slowly south tonight toward the NC border.
Some areas of light rain and fog/stratus are possible during the
overnight and lower cigs are possible through the morning hours.
Conds should gradually improve during the aftn to VFR.

OUTLOOK...Drier weather is forecast Sat through Monday as high
pressure builds into the area from the north. There will be a
chance for showers/thunderstorms on Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
The cold front front over the area will drift south of the waters
tonight. This will allow for NE winds to develop across the entire
region by Saturday, but with the gradient being rather weak do not
expect winds to increase to much more than 15 kt with seas over the
coastal waters no more than 4 ft. Winds diminish on Sunday as the
high builds across the area, then lee troughiness will allow for the
winds to turn south-southeast on Monday into Tuesday before the next
cold front passes through into Tuesday Night. Overall...the
expectation is that conditions will remain below small craft
advisory criteria through the next 5 days, although Saturday may see
seas of 4 feet across the northern waters.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
After viewing the morning data and coord with the RFC, went ahead
and issued a River Flood Warning for the James River at Bremo
Bluff with the river going above flood stage Saturday morning.
This based on the runoff from yesterdays heavy rainfall across the
headwaters. Decided to hold off on Richmond Westham for now as the
latest guid has them going just above flood stage Saturday evening.
Feel we have some time to see how the upstream gages react to the
rainfall.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS/MPR
SHORT TERM...MAS/MPR
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...MAS/JEF
MARINE...MRD
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 241941
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
341 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front over Northern Delaware and southern New Jersey will
continue to gradually push south into this evening. This weekend, a
high-pressure system will build over the region. A frontal system
will move through our area by mid-week. A high-pressure system will
build over our region later in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

Scattered convection has developed in the heat of the
day across the Delmarva and Srn NJ. There are also more isolated
showers across ern and se PA too. The activity has been moving
rather slow, prompting a SVR and some FFWs for the area. These
showers/tstms should continue for the next few hours before
decreasing this evening. The onshore flow will continue overnight
with high pressure building down from the north. Low clouds and
patchy fog will be across the area, especially where the present
rains are. We will mention fog across the north too, where more of a
patchy radiation fog is psbl. Low temperatures tonight will be in
the upper 50s to low 60s in most areas and mid 60s over the Delmarva
and metro Philadelphia.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...

High pressure will continue to build in Saturday. There will
likely be some lingering clouds and fog, especially along the NJ
shore areas during the morning. After the mid-morning, mostly
Sunny skies are expected. Winds will continue to be from the E or
NE at 5 to 10 mph. High temperatures will reach into the low to
mid 80s in most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Saturday night: A clear night with light winds and conditions
favorable for radiational cooling. Some patchy fog is possible as
well just before sunrise  when higher RH values correspond with the
light winds.


Sunday and Sunday night:  High pressure will be moving eastward and
offshore resulting in another dry but hotter day. A look at actual
model data shows the ECMWF to be several degrees warmer than the
GFS. Boundary layer temperature output on both occasions supports
the model output. Given the dry conditions from Philadelphia and
points north this forecast and recent cool biases with model data,
this forecast is in line with the warmer ECMWF.  High temperatures
will push the mid and upper 80`s in most of the region, with the
highest readings in the Lehigh valley and the cooler readings down
by the shore. Southerly flow will result in a warmer and muggy night
as well Sunday night.

Monday through Wednesday: A cold frontal boundary will move from the
Great lakes southwestward through the region in this time frame. A
few mid-level shortwaves ahead of this front will likely serve as
triggers for scattered showers and thunderstorms in a warm and humid
air mass. The most likely window for rain based on current ensemble
data stretches from Monday night through Tuesday night.  However,
given uncertainty in timing and coverage will continue with chance
pops. This will likely not dent the drought across the northern half
of the region. The actual cold front will likely move through on
Wednesday with a cooler and drier airmass moving in behind the
front. Winds will be southerly from 5 to 15 mph throughout the early
part of the week.

Wednesday night through Friday:  High pressure will build
southeastward into the region with a cooler and drier airmass.
Leaned at or warmer than ensemble guidance here given the dry
ground and recent temperature biases the past few weeks. Winds
generally westerly to southwesterly at around 10 mph.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Most of the area remain under VFR conditions early this afternoon.
The southern TAF sites have lower clouds and scattered tstms nearby.
We have kept a mention of tstms and low mvfr conditions at KACY/KMIV
and KILG into the afternoon. The shower activity is moving very
slowly with the weaker winds aloft. A few showers could develop
further north in the Lehigh Valley according to some of the local
fcst models. We have left any shower activity out of the tafs attm
with amds possible later. Winds will remain erly at 10 to 15 kts.

Tonight...The showers will diminish this evening then skies will
clearing from N to S. We will likely hold onto some low clouds across
the srn areas. Any breaks will result in fog development across the
srn areas. Low clouds could affect KPHL/KPNE and up into KTTN also.
We have decided to preserve some of the earlier clouds in the fcst.
The guidance doesn`t mention much in the way of low clouds, but the
pattern seems to favor it. Winds tonight light from the NE or E.

Sat...VFR conditions expected after any low clouds or morning fog
dissipates. Winds will be east at around 10 knots by early
afternoon.

Outlook...

Sunday and Sunday night: VFR. Southwest winds around 10 knots.

Monday through Tuesday night: Mainly VFR. Some scattered
thunderstorms will reduce vsbys and ceilings to MVFR and IFR at
times. The highest chances for any storms are on Tuesday.  Southwest
winds from 5 to 15 knots, highest Monday and Tuesday afternoon.

Wednesday: VFR. Northwest winds around 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...

Onshore flow will continue tonight and Saturday with high
pressure building in from the north. Scattered thunderstorms across
the srn NJ and DE waters this afternoon will diminish this evening.
patchy fog is possible tonight. Seas have been steady around 3-4 ft
so far today and this will continue tonight. Seas will tick up
closer to SCA criteria seas Saturday. Confid is still not the
greatest however, we`ll just mention 4 ft seas attm and hold on the
SCA flag for now. Fair weather expected Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Wednesday:

Seas will remain under five feet throughout the period. The
highest seas around four feet are likely to occur into Sunday then
again on Tuesday. Top wind gusts will top out around 20 knots both
Monday and Tuesday afternoons from the south.

RIP CURRENTS...

Moderate risk for rip currents the rest of today
and probably Sat also. High pressure will bring lighter winds and
lowering seas Sun. Risk on Sun will likely be less than Sat.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...JJ
Near Term...O`Hara
Short Term...O`Hara
Long Term...Gaines
Aviation...Gaines/O`Hara
Marine...Gaines/O`Hara




000
FXUS61 KPHI 241941
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
341 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front over Northern Delaware and southern New Jersey will
continue to gradually push south into this evening. This weekend, a
high-pressure system will build over the region. A frontal system
will move through our area by mid-week. A high-pressure system will
build over our region later in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

Scattered convection has developed in the heat of the
day across the Delmarva and Srn NJ. There are also more isolated
showers across ern and se PA too. The activity has been moving
rather slow, prompting a SVR and some FFWs for the area. These
showers/tstms should continue for the next few hours before
decreasing this evening. The onshore flow will continue overnight
with high pressure building down from the north. Low clouds and
patchy fog will be across the area, especially where the present
rains are. We will mention fog across the north too, where more of a
patchy radiation fog is psbl. Low temperatures tonight will be in
the upper 50s to low 60s in most areas and mid 60s over the Delmarva
and metro Philadelphia.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...

High pressure will continue to build in Saturday. There will
likely be some lingering clouds and fog, especially along the NJ
shore areas during the morning. After the mid-morning, mostly
Sunny skies are expected. Winds will continue to be from the E or
NE at 5 to 10 mph. High temperatures will reach into the low to
mid 80s in most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Saturday night: A clear night with light winds and conditions
favorable for radiational cooling. Some patchy fog is possible as
well just before sunrise  when higher RH values correspond with the
light winds.


Sunday and Sunday night:  High pressure will be moving eastward and
offshore resulting in another dry but hotter day. A look at actual
model data shows the ECMWF to be several degrees warmer than the
GFS. Boundary layer temperature output on both occasions supports
the model output. Given the dry conditions from Philadelphia and
points north this forecast and recent cool biases with model data,
this forecast is in line with the warmer ECMWF.  High temperatures
will push the mid and upper 80`s in most of the region, with the
highest readings in the Lehigh valley and the cooler readings down
by the shore. Southerly flow will result in a warmer and muggy night
as well Sunday night.

Monday through Wednesday: A cold frontal boundary will move from the
Great lakes southwestward through the region in this time frame. A
few mid-level shortwaves ahead of this front will likely serve as
triggers for scattered showers and thunderstorms in a warm and humid
air mass. The most likely window for rain based on current ensemble
data stretches from Monday night through Tuesday night.  However,
given uncertainty in timing and coverage will continue with chance
pops. This will likely not dent the drought across the northern half
of the region. The actual cold front will likely move through on
Wednesday with a cooler and drier airmass moving in behind the
front. Winds will be southerly from 5 to 15 mph throughout the early
part of the week.

Wednesday night through Friday:  High pressure will build
southeastward into the region with a cooler and drier airmass.
Leaned at or warmer than ensemble guidance here given the dry
ground and recent temperature biases the past few weeks. Winds
generally westerly to southwesterly at around 10 mph.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Most of the area remain under VFR conditions early this afternoon.
The southern TAF sites have lower clouds and scattered tstms nearby.
We have kept a mention of tstms and low mvfr conditions at KACY/KMIV
and KILG into the afternoon. The shower activity is moving very
slowly with the weaker winds aloft. A few showers could develop
further north in the Lehigh Valley according to some of the local
fcst models. We have left any shower activity out of the tafs attm
with amds possible later. Winds will remain erly at 10 to 15 kts.

Tonight...The showers will diminish this evening then skies will
clearing from N to S. We will likely hold onto some low clouds across
the srn areas. Any breaks will result in fog development across the
srn areas. Low clouds could affect KPHL/KPNE and up into KTTN also.
We have decided to preserve some of the earlier clouds in the fcst.
The guidance doesn`t mention much in the way of low clouds, but the
pattern seems to favor it. Winds tonight light from the NE or E.

Sat...VFR conditions expected after any low clouds or morning fog
dissipates. Winds will be east at around 10 knots by early
afternoon.

Outlook...

Sunday and Sunday night: VFR. Southwest winds around 10 knots.

Monday through Tuesday night: Mainly VFR. Some scattered
thunderstorms will reduce vsbys and ceilings to MVFR and IFR at
times. The highest chances for any storms are on Tuesday.  Southwest
winds from 5 to 15 knots, highest Monday and Tuesday afternoon.

Wednesday: VFR. Northwest winds around 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...

Onshore flow will continue tonight and Saturday with high
pressure building in from the north. Scattered thunderstorms across
the srn NJ and DE waters this afternoon will diminish this evening.
patchy fog is possible tonight. Seas have been steady around 3-4 ft
so far today and this will continue tonight. Seas will tick up
closer to SCA criteria seas Saturday. Confid is still not the
greatest however, we`ll just mention 4 ft seas attm and hold on the
SCA flag for now. Fair weather expected Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Wednesday:

Seas will remain under five feet throughout the period. The
highest seas around four feet are likely to occur into Sunday then
again on Tuesday. Top wind gusts will top out around 20 knots both
Monday and Tuesday afternoons from the south.

RIP CURRENTS...

Moderate risk for rip currents the rest of today
and probably Sat also. High pressure will bring lighter winds and
lowering seas Sun. Risk on Sun will likely be less than Sat.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...JJ
Near Term...O`Hara
Short Term...O`Hara
Long Term...Gaines
Aviation...Gaines/O`Hara
Marine...Gaines/O`Hara




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 241936
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
336 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary moves south into the Carolina`s tonight. High
pressure builds in from the north over the weekend. The next front
moves into the region Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Scattered convection will be based on track of the s/w trof crossing
the area this evening as well as outflow boundarys from the storms
going on across the northern Delmarva. Area remains in slight risk
for damaging winds/large hail, with best chances before sunset using
the logic that for any storm to become severe it will have to act on
the available cape/shear from todays heating and leftover boundarys
from previous convection. Expect any convection to weaken then
diminish with only low chc pops overnight as the boundary sags south
and winds to turn NE. The other concern will be for patchy fog to
form...especially in areas that see rain. Kept chc pops for now and
added patchy fog after midnight. Lows in the mid 60s north to lwr
70s south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Trof/weak front sags south into the Carolinas with high pressure
nosing in from the north Saturday. Tricky forecast given tsctns
across the south show enuf moisture at different levels for skies to
stay mstly cloudy. Even enough forcing for isltd/sct shwrs to dvlp
giving daytime heating across the south. Meanwhile...north areas see
pt to mstly sunny skies and remain dry. highs in the lwr 80s except
75-80 along the coast...coolest at the beaches along with a NE wind.

The high pushes all moisture south of the area Saturday night.
Expect mstly clr to pt cldy skies. Lows in the 60s. Mstly sunny
Sunday as high pressure dominates. Continued onshore flow keeps it
coolest at the beaches. Highs low to mid 80s west of the Ches Bay,
75-80 along the coast. Mstly clr Sunday night. Lows in the 60s.

Models a bit slower with the next front early next week. Moisture
ahead of it does not increase until after 18z...so expect a dry
first half of the day with sct convection developing across the wrh
zones after 18z. Highs in the mid 80s except upr70s to lwr 80s at
the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Sunday night looks to remain dry and mild as the upper ridge extends
into the Middle Atlantic ahead of the deep upper low over the
Canadian Prairies. Heights lower Monday as the upper low over the
nrn Great Lakes moves east. This may allow for showers and
thunderstorms to develop Monday afternoon due to lee side
troughiness and continue into Monday night as the cold front slowly
approaches. Will need to maintain chances for showers and
thunderstorms on Tuesday as the front moves through. Cooler and
dry for Wed and Thu with dry NW flow.

Highs will start out in the lower 90s on Monday into Tuesday, with
temperatures lowering to the mid-upper 80s on Wed/Thu.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Nice VFR conditions across the region at 18Z with a few widely
scattered showers. Frontal bndry and broad area of low pressure
cont to lie across the region and will be the focus for any
developing showers and tstms this aftn/evening. Winds will
generally be light less than 10 kt but direction will depend on
location of the front.

The front will move slowly south tonight toward the NC border.
Some areas of light rain and fog/stratus are possible during the
overnight and lower cigs are possible through the morning hours.
Conds should gradually improve during the aftn to VFR.

OUTLOOK...Drier weather is forecast Sat through Monday as high
pressure builds into the area from the north. There will be a
chance for showers/thunderstorms on Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest obs reflect sub-SCA conditions continuing across the waters.
W-SW winds on the order of 5-10 kt north, 10-15 kt south. Latest wx
analysis features weakening sfc front just north of the area, with
surface high pressure building down across the Northern Mid-Atlantic
from New England. this feature will continue to slowly nudge the
weak sfc front south across the waters later this morning through
early tonight. Meanwhile, low pressure will develop along the front
and move over the area. This will result in winds gradually veering
around to the NNE from north to south. Still do not expect
significant strengthening of the low and and therefore negligible
tightening of sfc pressure gradient should keep winds and waves
below SCA thresholds. The front slides farther south into the
Carolinas tonight. NW winds ~15 kt N, 10-15 kt south. Waves on the
Bay/Rivers/Sound 1-2 ft/Seas 2-4 ft.

The front remains quasi-stationary south of the local area on
Saturday, keeping NE winds aob 15 kt in place across the area
(though the Mouth of the Ches Bay will be close to SCA criteria
for much of the day). Seas will approach 5 ft out towards 20 nm
tomorrow. Given uncertainty and marginal nature of the event, we
have held off with headlines for now. High pressure builds across
the waters on Sunday before another cold front approaches the area
Monday Night into Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
After viewing the morning data and coord with the RFC, went ahead
and issued a River Flood Warning for the James River at Bremo
Bluff with the river going above flood stage Saturday morning.
This based on the runoff from yesterdays heavy rainfall across the
headwaters. Decided to hold off on Richmond Westham for now as the
latest guid has them going just above flood stage Saturday evening.
Feel we have some time to see how the upstream gages react to the
rainfall.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS/MPR
SHORT TERM...MAS/MPR
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...MAS/JEF
MARINE...MAM
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241921
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
321 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered to numerous showers will continue mainly south of I-70
through early evening along the remnants of a stalled frontal
zone. After some areas of dense fog tomorrow morning, warmer and
dry conditions are expected through the weekend. A weak frontal
system will bring a quick chance for rain on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
Weak convergence zone was roughly focused along the PA/MD/WV
border region this afternoon, with dewpoints locally pooled in the
mid 60s. 12Z KPBZ sounding showed a remnant area of steep lapse
rates generally at and below 700mb, which will continue to support
scattered to numerous pulse showers over the srn CWA amidst weak
vertical shear. This activity should steady propagate to the
south and east with successful outflow generation, and exit the
area entirely between 01 and 02Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Residual moisture pooling, clearing skies and stagnated flow
within the arriving ridge axis should yield a somewhat favorable
opportunity for at least patchy dense fog, especially in the river
valleys.

Otherwise, warmer and dry conditions expected Saturday and Sunday
as a seasonably strong (locally 590+ dm heights) 500mb ridge axis
builds toward the area. Should reach mid-upper 80s tomorrow, and
possibly break 90F on Sunday (Ohio/WV panhandle especially) as
19C 850mb temperatures and increasing southwest surface flow move
into the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Shower and thunderstorms chances return to the forecast Sunday
night as moisture pools ahead of the next front. Above normal
temperatures at the start of the period will become more
seasonable with the arrival of the front Monday. Superblend
guidance was used as a basis for the grids.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions area wide. isolated showers will pop up south of
interstate 70 during the afternoon, but confidence is too low for
inclusion in MGW at this time. A VFR evening is expected, with
MVFR fog forming after midnight.

.OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Potential exists for pre-dawn fog development Saturday morning.
Otherwise, the next chance for general restrictions is expected with
a Monday cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KLWX 241851
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
251 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving front will slide south away from the region tonight.
High pressure will dominate over the weekend. A cold front will
approach the area Monday before crossing the area Tuesday. High
pressure will return for mid-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 2PM...a weak stationary front remained draped across the
area. The wind shift line is hard to determine, and the pressure
trough stretches west-to-east across the CWA..but the drop in dew
points remains near the Pennsylvania border. Thus we remain in a
moist and unstable air mass with dew points not far from 70 in
much of the area. Combined with afternoon sunshine and an
approaching short wave...and we should see continued scattered
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into early this evening.
Profiles remain decent for sporadic severe...but plenty of dry air
aloft is helping keep storms from getting too tall. This may
change for a time late today...especially in central Virginia and
southern Maryland...so the risk of isolated severe weather
remains. Main risk is hail and gusty winds...with a secondary
threat of locally heavy rain given that the storms so far are not
moving much.

Tonight...the trough will pass the area this evening and
convection will wane from NE to SW. The high to the north will
nudge southward and easterly flow will take over. Guidance is
suggesting a low cloud deck will develop...and the rains which
much of the area has had suggest some patchy fog may try to form
as well. Lows will be in the 60s. Low clouds and patchy fog early
Saturday should break for sun over most of the area and highs will
return to the low-mid 80s. However, with drier air pushing in from
the north, it should be more comfortable.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Ridge builds across the area aloft on Sunday then gets pushed east
of the area by a shortwave on Monday. At the surface...high
pressure will shift east of the area on Sunday but a tongue will
extend southwest across the region. By Monday the next cold front
will be approaching from the west. The high will promote possible
patchy fog early Sunday...otherwise sunshine will dominate and it
will be slightly warmer than Saturday. By Monday clouds will
increase and showers and thunderstorms will spread into the area
by afternoon. Will need to watch any severe threat.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Seasonably warm and humid conditions are expected Monday in
southerly flow. A cold front will move in from the west during the
day and may trigger showers and thunderstorms. Shear looks like it
won`t be as impressive as with recent events, but still decent
veering (southerly at the surface to westerly at 500 MB).

The front may get hung up over eastern parts of the area Monday
night into Tuesday before weakening. High pressure will bring a
return to dry weather briefly Tuesday night into Wednesday before
another system approaches late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Main concern this afternoon into early this evening is scattered
showers and thunderstorms. Any storm may bring hail and gusty
winds but coverage should be hit-or-miss. Cigs and vis may also be
reduced significantly as any storm passes. Overnight into early
Saturday, low clouds and fog are possible which may bring cigs and
vis down to at least MVFR if not IFR. Improvement by Saturday
afternoon with high pressure followed by perhaps some more patchy
fog Saturday night into Sunday morning. VFR Sunday aft to Monday
morning, then sub-VFR possible in Monday afternoon/evening
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Stalled front in the area combined with an approaching upper level
disturbance is promoting shower and thunderstorm development.
Storms may produce gusty winds this afternoon into early this
evening. Otherwise, winds should be below 18 knots through Monday
morning as high pressure noses in from the north and northeast
through the weekend. Cold front approaching Monday may bring SCA
gusts via southerly channelling. A brief period of SCA level
gusts is possible again Tuesday in westerly flow as high pressure
builds in behind the front.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...RCM
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...RCM/DFH
MARINE...RCM/DFH




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 241820
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
220 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary slowly drops south through the area today into
tonight. High pressure then builds in from the north over the
weekend. The next front moves into the region late Monday into
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Coming to work this morning I observed "ACCAS ALQDS". Rule of
thumb there is that convection is possible within 100 miles
later in the day. Well it did not take long as the convection
associated with the next mid level s/w trof is heading east across
the piedmont mid morning. Data suggests this line with additional
development moves east over the next hrs along the differential
heating bndry across srn half of fa. Thus...adjusted grids per
these conditions through noon and added thunder across the
southern zones.

Appears it will be this afternoon that another round of convection
will develop across northern VA then track south across the fa.
SPC continues to highlight areas mainly south of I64 in a slight
risk for severe wx. Svr parameters inc. deep layer shear up to
~40 kt are favorable should any storms develop. Areal coverage of
convection also looks problematic...current forecast will call for
pops ranging fm 30% ne areas to 50% over the Piedmont after 18z.
As with previous days this week, went lwr than guidance wrt temps.
Highs ranging thru the 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Chance pops continue this evening but taper off north to south
after midnight as high pressure to the north pushes the low and
associated frontal boundary farther south. Lows in the mid 60s
north to lwr 70s se.

High pressure to the north dominates the wx across the fa thru the
weekend with the front stalling out off the Carolina coast. Dry and
cooler with highs both days 80-85 except 75-80 along the coast. Lows
in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Sunday night looks to remain dry and mild as the upper ridge extends
into the Middle Atlantic ahead of the deep upper low over the
Canadian Prairies. Heights lower Monday as the upper low over the
nrn Great Lakes moves east. This may allow for showers and
thunderstorms to develop Monday afternoon due to lee side
troughiness and continue into Monday night as the cold front slowly
approaches. Will need to maintain chances for showers and
thunderstorms on Tuesday as the front moves through. Cooler and
dry for Wed and Thu with dry NW flow.

Highs will start out in the lower 90s on Monday into Tuesday, with
temperatures lowering to the mid-upper 80s on Wed/Thu.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Nice VFR conditions across the region at 18Z with a few widely
scattered showers. Frontal bndry and broad area of low pressure
cont to lie across the region and will be the focus for any
developing showers and tstms this aftn/evening. Winds will
generally be light less than 10 kt but direction will depend on
location of the front.

The front will move slowly south tonight toward the NC border.
Some areas of light rain and fog/stratus are possible during the
overnight and lower cigs are possible through the morning hours.
Conds should gradually improve during the aftn to VFR.

OUTLOOK...Drier weather is forecast Sat through Monday as high
pressure builds into the area from the north. There will be a
chance for showers/thunderstorms on Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest obs reflect sub-SCA conditions continuing across the waters.
W-SW winds on the order of 5-10 kt north, 10-15 kt south. Latest wx
analysis features weakening sfc front just north of the area, with
surface high pressure building down across the Northern Mid-Atlantic
from New England. this feature will continue to slowly nudge the
weak sfc front south across the waters later this morning through
early tonight. Meanwhile, low pressure will develop along the front
and move over the area. This will result in winds gradually veering
around to the NNE from north to south. Still do not expect
significant strengthening of the low and and therefore negligible
tightening of sfc pressure gradient should keep winds and waves
below SCA thresholds. The front slides farther south into the
Carolinas tonight. NW winds ~15 kt N, 10-15 kt south. Waves on the
Bay/Rivers/Sound 1-2 ft/Seas 2-4 ft.

The front remains quasi-stationary south of the local area on
Saturday, keeping NE winds aob 15 kt in place across the area
(though the Mouth of the Ches Bay will be close to SCA criteria
for much of the day). Seas will approach 5 ft out towards 20 nm
tomorrow. Given uncertainty and marginal nature of the event, we
have held off with headlines for now. High pressure builds across
the waters on Sunday before another cold front approaches the area
Monday Night into Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
After viewing the morning data and coord with the RFC, went ahead
and issued a River Flood Warning for the James River at Bremo
Bluff with the river going above flood stage Saturday morning.
This based on the runoff from yesterdays heavy rainfall across the
headwaters. Decided to hold off on Richmond Westham for now as the
latest guid has them going just above flood stage Saturday evening.
Feel we have some time to see how the upstream gages react to the
rainfall.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS/MPR
SHORT TERM...MAS/MPR
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...MAS/JEF
MARINE...MAM
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 241820
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
220 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary slowly drops south through the area today into
tonight. High pressure then builds in from the north over the
weekend. The next front moves into the region late Monday into
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Coming to work this morning I observed "ACCAS ALQDS". Rule of
thumb there is that convection is possible within 100 miles
later in the day. Well it did not take long as the convection
associated with the next mid level s/w trof is heading east across
the piedmont mid morning. Data suggests this line with additional
development moves east over the next hrs along the differential
heating bndry across srn half of fa. Thus...adjusted grids per
these conditions through noon and added thunder across the
southern zones.

Appears it will be this afternoon that another round of convection
will develop across northern VA then track south across the fa.
SPC continues to highlight areas mainly south of I64 in a slight
risk for severe wx. Svr parameters inc. deep layer shear up to
~40 kt are favorable should any storms develop. Areal coverage of
convection also looks problematic...current forecast will call for
pops ranging fm 30% ne areas to 50% over the Piedmont after 18z.
As with previous days this week, went lwr than guidance wrt temps.
Highs ranging thru the 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Chance pops continue this evening but taper off north to south
after midnight as high pressure to the north pushes the low and
associated frontal boundary farther south. Lows in the mid 60s
north to lwr 70s se.

High pressure to the north dominates the wx across the fa thru the
weekend with the front stalling out off the Carolina coast. Dry and
cooler with highs both days 80-85 except 75-80 along the coast. Lows
in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Sunday night looks to remain dry and mild as the upper ridge extends
into the Middle Atlantic ahead of the deep upper low over the
Canadian Prairies. Heights lower Monday as the upper low over the
nrn Great Lakes moves east. This may allow for showers and
thunderstorms to develop Monday afternoon due to lee side
troughiness and continue into Monday night as the cold front slowly
approaches. Will need to maintain chances for showers and
thunderstorms on Tuesday as the front moves through. Cooler and
dry for Wed and Thu with dry NW flow.

Highs will start out in the lower 90s on Monday into Tuesday, with
temperatures lowering to the mid-upper 80s on Wed/Thu.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Nice VFR conditions across the region at 18Z with a few widely
scattered showers. Frontal bndry and broad area of low pressure
cont to lie across the region and will be the focus for any
developing showers and tstms this aftn/evening. Winds will
generally be light less than 10 kt but direction will depend on
location of the front.

The front will move slowly south tonight toward the NC border.
Some areas of light rain and fog/stratus are possible during the
overnight and lower cigs are possible through the morning hours.
Conds should gradually improve during the aftn to VFR.

OUTLOOK...Drier weather is forecast Sat through Monday as high
pressure builds into the area from the north. There will be a
chance for showers/thunderstorms on Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest obs reflect sub-SCA conditions continuing across the waters.
W-SW winds on the order of 5-10 kt north, 10-15 kt south. Latest wx
analysis features weakening sfc front just north of the area, with
surface high pressure building down across the Northern Mid-Atlantic
from New England. this feature will continue to slowly nudge the
weak sfc front south across the waters later this morning through
early tonight. Meanwhile, low pressure will develop along the front
and move over the area. This will result in winds gradually veering
around to the NNE from north to south. Still do not expect
significant strengthening of the low and and therefore negligible
tightening of sfc pressure gradient should keep winds and waves
below SCA thresholds. The front slides farther south into the
Carolinas tonight. NW winds ~15 kt N, 10-15 kt south. Waves on the
Bay/Rivers/Sound 1-2 ft/Seas 2-4 ft.

The front remains quasi-stationary south of the local area on
Saturday, keeping NE winds aob 15 kt in place across the area
(though the Mouth of the Ches Bay will be close to SCA criteria
for much of the day). Seas will approach 5 ft out towards 20 nm
tomorrow. Given uncertainty and marginal nature of the event, we
have held off with headlines for now. High pressure builds across
the waters on Sunday before another cold front approaches the area
Monday Night into Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
After viewing the morning data and coord with the RFC, went ahead
and issued a River Flood Warning for the James River at Bremo
Bluff with the river going above flood stage Saturday morning.
This based on the runoff from yesterdays heavy rainfall across the
headwaters. Decided to hold off on Richmond Westham for now as the
latest guid has them going just above flood stage Saturday evening.
Feel we have some time to see how the upstream gages react to the
rainfall.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS/MPR
SHORT TERM...MAS/MPR
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...MAS/JEF
MARINE...MAM
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241748
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
148 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
there is a chance of an isolated shower south of interstate 70
today. gradual drying and less humid conditions today with a
warming trend as we head through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Stalled cold front over Northern West Virginia will be the focus
of any activity today. The front will lay dormant for much of the
morning hours, but it does appear to bulge northward over the
ridges and far south during the afternoon. This should draw
additional low level moisture northward forcing the drier air to
shift further to the west. The will promote, at least, a modest
increase in cloud cover over portions of the south and also the
inclusion of pops in the ridges and locations near the Mason Dixon
line. With the low level flow near the boundary, moisture should
sweep up the ridge slopes, allowing for orographically induced
convection.

Temperatures will be close to normal, with more comfortable
humidity levels to the north.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
500mb ridge finally builds in on Saturday and will hold through
most of the weekend. This will mean an increase in sunshine,
temperatures and humidity. Temperatures Sunday will be pushing 90
degrees across much of the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Shower and thunderstorms chances return to the forecast Sunday
night as moisture pools ahead of the next front. Above normal
temperatures at the start of the period will become more
seasonable by Wednesday. Superblend guidance was used as a basis
for the grids.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions areawide. isolated showers will pop up south of
interstate 70 during the afternoon, but confidence is too low for
inclusion in MGW at this time. A VFR evening is expected, with
MVFR fog forming after midnight.

.OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Potential exists for pre-dawn fog development Saturday morning.
Otherwise, the next chance for general restrictions is expected with
a Monday cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241748
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
148 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
there is a chance of an isolated shower south of interstate 70
today. gradual drying and less humid conditions today with a
warming trend as we head through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Stalled cold front over Northern West Virginia will be the focus
of any activity today. The front will lay dormant for much of the
morning hours, but it does appear to bulge northward over the
ridges and far south during the afternoon. This should draw
additional low level moisture northward forcing the drier air to
shift further to the west. The will promote, at least, a modest
increase in cloud cover over portions of the south and also the
inclusion of pops in the ridges and locations near the Mason Dixon
line. With the low level flow near the boundary, moisture should
sweep up the ridge slopes, allowing for orographically induced
convection.

Temperatures will be close to normal, with more comfortable
humidity levels to the north.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
500mb ridge finally builds in on Saturday and will hold through
most of the weekend. This will mean an increase in sunshine,
temperatures and humidity. Temperatures Sunday will be pushing 90
degrees across much of the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Shower and thunderstorms chances return to the forecast Sunday
night as moisture pools ahead of the next front. Above normal
temperatures at the start of the period will become more
seasonable by Wednesday. Superblend guidance was used as a basis
for the grids.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions areawide. isolated showers will pop up south of
interstate 70 during the afternoon, but confidence is too low for
inclusion in MGW at this time. A VFR evening is expected, with
MVFR fog forming after midnight.

.OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Potential exists for pre-dawn fog development Saturday morning.
Otherwise, the next chance for general restrictions is expected with
a Monday cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPHI 241511
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1111 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will over the northern Delmarva and southern New
Jersey early this morning will gradually push south of the area
today. High pressure will build into the region for this weekend.
As the high moves offshore Monday, a slow moving cold front will
approach from the northwest Tuesday, and move through the region
Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Clouds and widely sct showers remain across srn NJ and the
Delmarva this morning. These clouds will be slow to mix out with
the sfc flow now coming in off the ocean. So we will continue with
the low chc pops for showers and maybe a tstm this afternoon.
Better conditions expected across the far north, closer to the
building high. In these areas, no showers are expected and skies
will be partly to mostly sunny. High temps will likely be higher
across the north and tempered by the onshore flow across the
srn/ern areas. Minor edits made to temps and dew pt grids for the
update.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
The center of the surface high retreats off the New England coast
tonight. However, the high will still control our weather pattern
with the ridge axis expected to extend southwestward from the high
in to the northern mid-Atlantic region. Surface winds will back from
easterly at the start of the period to northeasterly by early
morning as low pressure moves offshore.

There is a potential for marine stratus to advect inland tonight
owing to the onshore flow. These low clouds in addition to higher
convective debris clouds are anticipated to curb radiational
cooling, especially the closer you are to the coast. Forecast lows
are in the mid to upper 50s in northeast PA/ northwest NJ and low to
mid 60s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The weekend will be dry with high pres over the region. The high
will slowly move ewd and offshore by Mon. As the high departs, low
pres in Ontario will move ewd. Its attendant cdfnt will approach
from the w, and cross the area on Tue. The GFS then keeps things
dry Wed into Thu. However, the ECMWF (with some support from the
CMC) wants to bring a second front through on WEd and another
shot of precip, before drying things out later Wed into Thu. For
right now, will carry low pops Tue wino erly Wed and no pops
after that.

Temps look to be nr nrml with comfortable humidity values thru the
pd.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

VFR across most taf sites except for low  clouds amd MVFR at MIV
and IFR at ACY. Looks like thee conditions will hold for several
more hours before slow improvement. Winds mostly NE to E thru the
afternoon.

There is a potential for low clouds to develop offshore and move
inland late this evening and overnight. This may yield MVFR or IFR
restrictions. Forecast confidence decreases farther away from the
coast. Therefore, limited IFR restrictions in the forecast to MIV
and ACY.

Outlook...
Sat and Sun...Predominantly VFR. Patchy ground fog may lead to
sub-VFR conditions late Saturday night and early Sunday morning,
mainly at ABE, MIV, and RDG.  Moderate Confidence.

Mon and Mon night...VFR. High Confidence.

Tue...A cdfnt will move slowly acrs the region and be accompanied
by shra/tsra. VFR will prevail, then MVFR/IFR psbl with fropa.
Still some timing diffs with cfp. Moderate confidence.

&&

.MARINE...
Onshore flow will continue and increase to 10-15 kt with gusts to
20 kt this afternoon and tonight. Seas will accordingly build to
around 4 ft in our coastal Atlantic waters by tonight. There is a
potential for wave heights to approach 5 ft by late tonight but
confidence in this happening was too low to issue a SCA at this
time.

Outlook...
Sat...Latest guid indicates that we cud have sca conds with a e to
ne flow which cud linger into Sat night.

Sun thru Tue...No marine headlines anticipated.

RIP CURRENTS...Seas off the coast will build to 3-4 ft in
response to an onshore flow that develops this morning and
strengthens this afternoon. Medium-period southerly swells will be
around 2 or 3 ft. In this setup, the risk for the formation of
dangerous rip currents will approach moderate this afternoon.

Based on the expected wind, wave and swell conditions a moderate
risk for the development of dangerous rip currents may persist
into Saturday along the New Jersey shore and at the Delaware
Beaches.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Klein/Nierenberg
Near Term...Klein/O`Hara
Short Term...Klein
Long Term...Nierenberg
Aviation...Klein/Nierenberg/O`Hara
Marine...Klein/Nierenberg/O`Hara




000
FXUS61 KLWX 241450
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1050 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper-level disturbance will pass through the area today. High
pressure will build into the region tonight through Sunday. The
high will move off the coast Sunday night into Monday and a cold
front will pass through Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Mild and humid conditions are across the Mid-Atlantic region this
morning as a stalled frontal boundary remains in place just to our
north. High pressure is across the Great Lakes and New England
this morning. The air mass across Pennsylvania and New Jersey is
considerably drier than the one in our region and the front is
expected to nudge southward today and tonight, bringing the drier
air with it.

Until that happens, however...the Mid-Atlantic region is still
susceptible to showers and thunderstorms while warm and humid
airmass remains in place. A shortwave trough co-located with an
upper level jet will swing through the region this afternoon.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue developing late
this morning and afternoon as conditions continue to destabilize.
Low clouds have been persistent across northern regions but more
sun has been reaching the ground across more southerly portions of
the CWA. This may lead to increased instability across a region
that moderate shear profiles. Hi-res guidance is showing
disorganized iso-sct convection by this afternoon into this
evening. Difficult to determine exactly where best activity will
be but thinking currently remains focused on Shenandoah Valley and
Blue Ridge areas of Virginia where the approaching weak front
bringing cooler and much drier air from the north will likely
reach last. SPC has included part of the CWA in slight risk,
namely across central VA...with marginal risk extending across
most of VA...as well as DC and southern MD. Further north...the
drier air advecting in will likely limit severe threat.

The shortwave trough will move off the coast tonight. Showers will
linger into the evening hours especially across the SW portion of
the CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will move into the region Saturday and N-NE winds
are expected. Some guidance is depicting a low cloud deck and if
that doesn`t happen, fog is likely Saturday morning. Either
should break by afternoon with the exception of the highlands
where low clouds may persist. A stray shower is also possible in
the highlands...forced mainly by the mountains themselves. Max
temps in the low 80s expected Saturday. High pressure will build
into the region further Sat night and calm and clear conditions
expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will remain overhead Sunday...bringing dry and
seasonably warm conditions along with low humidity. The high
will move off the coast Sunday night into Monday and a cold front
will approach from the west later Monday. A southerly flow will
usher in more humid conditions ahead of the boundary...and this
may lead to some showers and thunderstorms...especially during the
afternoon and evening hours.

The cold front will pass through Tuesday...bringing the chance for
a few more showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will return
for Wednesday and Thursday behind the cold front...bringing cooler
and less humid conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low clouds this morning have been tough to lift at some terminals
but appears to be doing so now. For the rest of the afternoon,
prevailing vfr conditions are expected. SHRA/VCTS is possible this
afternoon with the best chance of TS at CHO. Heavy rain and gusty
winds possible this afternoon...again mainly around CHO.

SHRA will wane this evening. N-NE winds expected at the terminals
and low cigs are possible tonight with a better chance for IFR
conditions. Fog is also possible tonight into Saturday morning
causing sub-vfr vsbys. Sub-vfr cigs and vis possible Sat night
into Sunday morning as well.

High pressure will bring vfr conditions Sunday afternoon into
Monday. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible Monday
afternoon into Monday night. A cold front will pass through
Tuesday...bringing the chance for a few more showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
N-NE winds expected on the waters through Saturday night.
Showers and perhaps an isolated t-storm are expected through this
afternoon. Showers will likely cause brief periods of gusty winds.
At this time...coverage seems to be isolated... but an isolated
special marine warning is not out of the question.

High pressure will remain over the waters Sunday before moving off
to the east Sunday night. Winds will turn toward the southeast
during this time...but speeds should remain below sca criteria.

An approaching cold front Monday may trigger some showers and
thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. A few more
showers and thunderstorms are possible Tuesday into Tuesday
night as the cold front passes. Gusty winds are possible in any
thunderstorms that develop. High pressure will build during the
middle portion of next week.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL/RCM
NEAR TERM...HAS/RCM
SHORT TERM...HAS/RCM
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/HAS/RCM
MARINE...BJL/HAS/RCM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 241429
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1029 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary slowly drops south through the area today into
tonight. High pressure then builds in from the north over the
weekend. The next front moves into the region late Monday into
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Coming to work this morning I observed "ACCAS ALQDS". Rule of
thumb there is that convection is possible within 100 miles
later in the day. Well it did not take long as the convection
associated with the next mid level s/w trof is heading east across
the piedmont mid morning. Data suggests this line with additional
development moves east over the next hrs along the differential
heating bndry across srn half of fa. Thus...adjusted grids per
these conditions through noon and added thunder across the
southern zones.

Appears it will be this afternoon that another round of convection
will develop across northern VA then track south across the fa.
SPC continues to highlight areas mainly south of I64 in a slight
risk for severe wx. Svr parameters inc. deep layer shear up to
~40 kt are favorable should any storms develop. Areal coverage of
convection also looks problematic...current forecast will call for
pops ranging fm 30% ne areas to 50% over the Piedmont after 18z.
As with previous days this week, went lwr than guidance wrt temps.
Highs ranging thru the 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Chance pops continue this evening but taper off north to south
after midnight as high pressure to the north pushes the low and
associated frontal boundary farther south. Lows in the mid 60s
north to lwr 70s se.

High pressure to the north dominates the wx across the fa thru the
weekend with the front stalling out off the Carolina coast. Dry and
cooler with highs both days 80-85 except 75-80 along the coast. Lows
in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sunday night looks to remain dry and mild as the upper ridge extends
into the Middle Atlantic ahead of the deep upper low over the
Canadian Prairies. Heights lower Monday as the upper low over the
nrn Great Lakes moves east. This may allow for showers and
thunderstorms to develop Monday afternoon due to lee side
troughiness and continue into Monday night as the cold front slowly
approaches. Will need to maintain chances for showers and
thunderstorms on Tuesday as the front moves through. Cooler and
dry for Wed and Thu with dry NW flow.

Highs will start out in the lower 90s on Monday into Tuesday, with
temperatures lowering to the mid-upper 80s on Wed/Thu.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Vfr to start off the 12Z Taf period. A frntal bndry drops s thru
the area tda, bringing another chance of shras/tstms to all
terminals. Best chance is after noon...so introduced vcsh at that
point. Thunder is also psbl but confidence with timing is not high
enough to warrant mention in the Tafs at this point. Otherwise,
ceilings drop late in the day fm n to s...to mvfr and psbly ifr at
ksby. Light winds this morng will bcm nely behind the frnt this
eveng.

OUTLOOK...Drier weather is forecast tonight through Monday as
high pressure builds into the area from the north. There will be a
chance for showers/thunderstorms on Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest obs reflect sub-SCA conditions continuing across the waters.
W-SW winds on the order of 5-10 kt north, 10-15 kt south. Latest wx
analysis features weakening sfc front just north of the area, with
surface high pressure building down across the Northern Mid-Atlantic
from New England. this feature will continue to slowly nudge the
weak sfc front south across the waters later this morning through
early tonight. Meanwhile, low pressure will develop along the front
and move over the area. This will result in winds gradually veering
around to the NNE from north to south. Still do not expect
significant strengthening of the low and and therefore negligible
tightening of sfc pressure gradient should keep winds and waves
below SCA thresholds. The front slides farther south into the
Carolinas tonight. NW winds ~15 kt N, 10-15 kt south. Waves on the
Bay/Rivers/Sound 1-2 ft/Seas 2-4 ft.

The front remains quasi-stationary south of the local area on
Saturday, keeping NE winds aob 15 kt in place across the area
(though the Mouth of the Ches Bay will be close to SCA criteria
for much of the day). Seas will approach 5 ft out towards 20 nm
tomorrow. Given uncertainty and marginal nature of the event, we
have held off with headlines for now. High pressure builds across
the waters on Sunday before another cold front approaches the area
Monday Night into Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
After viewing the morning data and coord with the RFC, went ahead
and issued a River Flood Warning for the James River at Bremo
Bluff with the river going above flood stage Saturday morning.
This based on the runoff from yesterdays heavy rainfall across the
headwaters. Decided to hold off on Richmond Westham for now as the
latest guid has them going just above flood stage Saturday evening.
Feel we have some time to see how the upstream gages react to the
rainfall.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS/MPR
SHORT TERM...MAS/MPR
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAM
HYDROLOGY...JEF/MPR/MRD




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 241429
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1029 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary slowly drops south through the area today into
tonight. High pressure then builds in from the north over the
weekend. The next front moves into the region late Monday into
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Coming to work this morning I observed "ACCAS ALQDS". Rule of
thumb there is that convection is possible within 100 miles
later in the day. Well it did not take long as the convection
associated with the next mid level s/w trof is heading east across
the piedmont mid morning. Data suggests this line with additional
development moves east over the next hrs along the differential
heating bndry across srn half of fa. Thus...adjusted grids per
these conditions through noon and added thunder across the
southern zones.

Appears it will be this afternoon that another round of convection
will develop across northern VA then track south across the fa.
SPC continues to highlight areas mainly south of I64 in a slight
risk for severe wx. Svr parameters inc. deep layer shear up to
~40 kt are favorable should any storms develop. Areal coverage of
convection also looks problematic...current forecast will call for
pops ranging fm 30% ne areas to 50% over the Piedmont after 18z.
As with previous days this week, went lwr than guidance wrt temps.
Highs ranging thru the 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Chance pops continue this evening but taper off north to south
after midnight as high pressure to the north pushes the low and
associated frontal boundary farther south. Lows in the mid 60s
north to lwr 70s se.

High pressure to the north dominates the wx across the fa thru the
weekend with the front stalling out off the Carolina coast. Dry and
cooler with highs both days 80-85 except 75-80 along the coast. Lows
in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sunday night looks to remain dry and mild as the upper ridge extends
into the Middle Atlantic ahead of the deep upper low over the
Canadian Prairies. Heights lower Monday as the upper low over the
nrn Great Lakes moves east. This may allow for showers and
thunderstorms to develop Monday afternoon due to lee side
troughiness and continue into Monday night as the cold front slowly
approaches. Will need to maintain chances for showers and
thunderstorms on Tuesday as the front moves through. Cooler and
dry for Wed and Thu with dry NW flow.

Highs will start out in the lower 90s on Monday into Tuesday, with
temperatures lowering to the mid-upper 80s on Wed/Thu.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Vfr to start off the 12Z Taf period. A frntal bndry drops s thru
the area tda, bringing another chance of shras/tstms to all
terminals. Best chance is after noon...so introduced vcsh at that
point. Thunder is also psbl but confidence with timing is not high
enough to warrant mention in the Tafs at this point. Otherwise,
ceilings drop late in the day fm n to s...to mvfr and psbly ifr at
ksby. Light winds this morng will bcm nely behind the frnt this
eveng.

OUTLOOK...Drier weather is forecast tonight through Monday as
high pressure builds into the area from the north. There will be a
chance for showers/thunderstorms on Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest obs reflect sub-SCA conditions continuing across the waters.
W-SW winds on the order of 5-10 kt north, 10-15 kt south. Latest wx
analysis features weakening sfc front just north of the area, with
surface high pressure building down across the Northern Mid-Atlantic
from New England. this feature will continue to slowly nudge the
weak sfc front south across the waters later this morning through
early tonight. Meanwhile, low pressure will develop along the front
and move over the area. This will result in winds gradually veering
around to the NNE from north to south. Still do not expect
significant strengthening of the low and and therefore negligible
tightening of sfc pressure gradient should keep winds and waves
below SCA thresholds. The front slides farther south into the
Carolinas tonight. NW winds ~15 kt N, 10-15 kt south. Waves on the
Bay/Rivers/Sound 1-2 ft/Seas 2-4 ft.

The front remains quasi-stationary south of the local area on
Saturday, keeping NE winds aob 15 kt in place across the area
(though the Mouth of the Ches Bay will be close to SCA criteria
for much of the day). Seas will approach 5 ft out towards 20 nm
tomorrow. Given uncertainty and marginal nature of the event, we
have held off with headlines for now. High pressure builds across
the waters on Sunday before another cold front approaches the area
Monday Night into Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
After viewing the morning data and coord with the RFC, went ahead
and issued a River Flood Warning for the James River at Bremo
Bluff with the river going above flood stage Saturday morning.
This based on the runoff from yesterdays heavy rainfall across the
headwaters. Decided to hold off on Richmond Westham for now as the
latest guid has them going just above flood stage Saturday evening.
Feel we have some time to see how the upstream gages react to the
rainfall.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS/MPR
SHORT TERM...MAS/MPR
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAM
HYDROLOGY...JEF/MPR/MRD




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 241308
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
908 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary slowly drops south through the area today into
tonight. High pressure then builds in from the north over the
weekend. The next front moves into the region late Monday into
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Coming to work this morning I observed "ACCAS ALQDS". Rule of
thumb there is that convection is possible within 100 miles
later in the day. Well it did not take long as the convection
associated with the next mid level s/w trof is heading east across
the piedmont mid morning. Data suggests this line with additional
development moves east over the next hrs along the differential
heating bndry across srn half of fa. Thus...adjusted grids per
these conditions through noon and added thunder across the
southern zones.

Appears it will be this afternoon that another round of convection
will develop across northern VA then track south across the fa.
SPC continues to highlight areas mainly south of I64 in a slight
risk for severe wx. Svr parameters inc. deep layer shear up to
~40 kt are favorable should any storms develop. Areal coverage of
convection also looks problematic...current forecast will call for
pops ranging fm 30% ne areas to 50% over the Piedmont after 18z.
As with previous days this week, went lwr than guidance wrt temps.
Highs ranging thru the 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Chance pops continue this evening but taper off north to south
after midnight as high pressure to the north pushes the low and
associated frontal boundary farther south. Lows in the mid 60s
north to lwr 70s se.

High pressure to the north dominates the wx across the fa thru the
weekend with the front stalling out off the Carolina coast. Dry and
cooler with highs both days 80-85 except 75-80 along the coast. Lows
in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sunday night looks to remain dry and mild as the upper ridge extends
into the Middle Atlantic ahead of the deep upper low over the
Canadian Prairies. Heights lower Monday as the upper low over the
nrn Great Lakes moves east. This may allow for showers and
thunderstorms to develop Monday afternoon due to lee side
troughiness and continue into Monday night as the cold front slowly
approaches. Will need to maintain chances for showers and
thunderstorms on Tuesday as the front moves through. Cooler and
dry for Wed and Thu with dry NW flow.

Highs will start out in the lower 90s on Monday into Tuesday, with
temperatures lowering to the mid-upper 80s on Wed/Thu.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Vfr to start off the 12Z Taf period. A frntal bndry drops s thru
the area tda, bringing another chance of shras/tstms to all
terminals. Best chance is after noon...so introduced vcsh at that
point. Thunder is also psbl but confidence with timing is not high
enough to warrant mention in the Tafs at this point. Otherwise,
ceilings drop late in the day fm n to s...to mvfr and psbly ifr at
ksby. Light winds this morng will bcm nely behind the frnt this
eveng.

OUTLOOK...Drier weather is forecast tonight through Monday as
high pressure builds into the area from the north. There will be a
chance for showers/thunderstorms on Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest obs reflect sub-SCA conditions continuing across the waters.
W-SW winds on the order of 5-10 kt north, 10-15 kt south. Latest wx
analysis features weakening sfc front just north of the area, with
surface high pressure building down across the Northern Mid-Atlantic
from New England. this feature will continue to slowly nudge the
weak sfc front south across the waters later this morning through
early tonight. Meanwhile, low pressure will develop along the front
and move over the area. This will result in winds gradually veering
around to the NNE from north to south. Still do not expect
significant strengthening of the low and and therefore negligible
tightening of sfc pressure gradient should keep winds and waves
below SCA thresholds. The front slides farther south into the
Carolinas tonight. NW winds ~15 kt N, 10-15 kt south. Waves on the
Bay/Rivers/Sound 1-2 ft/Seas 2-4 ft.

The front remains quasi-stationary south of the local area on
Saturday, keeping NE winds aob 15 kt in place across the area
(though the Mouth of the Ches Bay will be close to SCA criteria
for much of the day). Seas will approach 5 ft out towards 20 nm
tomorrow. Given uncertainty and marginal nature of the event, we
have held off with headlines for now. High pressure builds across
the waters on Sunday before another cold front approaches the area
Monday Night into Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
All Flood advisories have expired, with rainfall totals on the
order of 1 to 1.5 inches out in the E VA Piedmont over the past 24
hours, with heavier rainfall totals upstream in the headwaters.
Areas of minor river flooding will be possible late tonight into
the weekend, most notably at Bremo Bluff and Richmond Westham.
Will continue to monitor river levels at these and other sites for
possible flood warnings over the next 12-24 hours

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS/MPR
SHORT TERM...MAS/MPR
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAM
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 241308
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
908 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary slowly drops south through the area today into
tonight. High pressure then builds in from the north over the
weekend. The next front moves into the region late Monday into
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Coming to work this morning I observed "ACCAS ALQDS". Rule of
thumb there is that convection is possible within 100 miles
later in the day. Well it did not take long as the convection
associated with the next mid level s/w trof is heading east across
the piedmont mid morning. Data suggests this line with additional
development moves east over the next hrs along the differential
heating bndry across srn half of fa. Thus...adjusted grids per
these conditions through noon and added thunder across the
southern zones.

Appears it will be this afternoon that another round of convection
will develop across northern VA then track south across the fa.
SPC continues to highlight areas mainly south of I64 in a slight
risk for severe wx. Svr parameters inc. deep layer shear up to
~40 kt are favorable should any storms develop. Areal coverage of
convection also looks problematic...current forecast will call for
pops ranging fm 30% ne areas to 50% over the Piedmont after 18z.
As with previous days this week, went lwr than guidance wrt temps.
Highs ranging thru the 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Chance pops continue this evening but taper off north to south
after midnight as high pressure to the north pushes the low and
associated frontal boundary farther south. Lows in the mid 60s
north to lwr 70s se.

High pressure to the north dominates the wx across the fa thru the
weekend with the front stalling out off the Carolina coast. Dry and
cooler with highs both days 80-85 except 75-80 along the coast. Lows
in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sunday night looks to remain dry and mild as the upper ridge extends
into the Middle Atlantic ahead of the deep upper low over the
Canadian Prairies. Heights lower Monday as the upper low over the
nrn Great Lakes moves east. This may allow for showers and
thunderstorms to develop Monday afternoon due to lee side
troughiness and continue into Monday night as the cold front slowly
approaches. Will need to maintain chances for showers and
thunderstorms on Tuesday as the front moves through. Cooler and
dry for Wed and Thu with dry NW flow.

Highs will start out in the lower 90s on Monday into Tuesday, with
temperatures lowering to the mid-upper 80s on Wed/Thu.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Vfr to start off the 12Z Taf period. A frntal bndry drops s thru
the area tda, bringing another chance of shras/tstms to all
terminals. Best chance is after noon...so introduced vcsh at that
point. Thunder is also psbl but confidence with timing is not high
enough to warrant mention in the Tafs at this point. Otherwise,
ceilings drop late in the day fm n to s...to mvfr and psbly ifr at
ksby. Light winds this morng will bcm nely behind the frnt this
eveng.

OUTLOOK...Drier weather is forecast tonight through Monday as
high pressure builds into the area from the north. There will be a
chance for showers/thunderstorms on Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest obs reflect sub-SCA conditions continuing across the waters.
W-SW winds on the order of 5-10 kt north, 10-15 kt south. Latest wx
analysis features weakening sfc front just north of the area, with
surface high pressure building down across the Northern Mid-Atlantic
from New England. this feature will continue to slowly nudge the
weak sfc front south across the waters later this morning through
early tonight. Meanwhile, low pressure will develop along the front
and move over the area. This will result in winds gradually veering
around to the NNE from north to south. Still do not expect
significant strengthening of the low and and therefore negligible
tightening of sfc pressure gradient should keep winds and waves
below SCA thresholds. The front slides farther south into the
Carolinas tonight. NW winds ~15 kt N, 10-15 kt south. Waves on the
Bay/Rivers/Sound 1-2 ft/Seas 2-4 ft.

The front remains quasi-stationary south of the local area on
Saturday, keeping NE winds aob 15 kt in place across the area
(though the Mouth of the Ches Bay will be close to SCA criteria
for much of the day). Seas will approach 5 ft out towards 20 nm
tomorrow. Given uncertainty and marginal nature of the event, we
have held off with headlines for now. High pressure builds across
the waters on Sunday before another cold front approaches the area
Monday Night into Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
All Flood advisories have expired, with rainfall totals on the
order of 1 to 1.5 inches out in the E VA Piedmont over the past 24
hours, with heavier rainfall totals upstream in the headwaters.
Areas of minor river flooding will be possible late tonight into
the weekend, most notably at Bremo Bluff and Richmond Westham.
Will continue to monitor river levels at these and other sites for
possible flood warnings over the next 12-24 hours

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS/MPR
SHORT TERM...MAS/MPR
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAM
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241140
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
740 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
there is still a chance of an isolated shower south of interstate
70 today. gradual drying and less humid conditions today with a
warming trend as we head through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Stalled cold front over Northern West Virginia will be the focus
of any activity today. The front will lay dormant for much of the
morning hours, but it does appear to bulge northward over the
ridges and far south during the afternoon. This should draw
additional low level moisture northward forcing the drier air to
shift further to the west. The will promote, at least, a modest
increase in cloud cover over portions of the south and also the
inclusion of pops in the ridges and locations near the Mason Dixon
line. With the low level flow near the boundary, moisture should
sweep up the ridge slopes, allowing for orographically induced
convection.

Temperatures will be close to normal, with more comfortable
humidity levels to the north.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
500mb ridge finally builds in on Saturday and will hold through
most of the weekend. This will mean an increase in sunshine,
temperatures and humidity. Temperatures Sunday will be pushing 90
degrees across much of the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Shower and thunderstorms chances return to the forecast Sunday
night as moisture pools ahead of the next front. Above normal
temperatures at the start of the period will become more
seasonable by Wednesday. Superblend guidance was used as a basis
for the grids.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Slow improvement will begin after sunrise, as the dewpoint
boundary will begin to make a renewed southward push once daytime
mixing begins. Expecting VFR conditions areawide by midday as fog
lifts and a BKN-OVC cumulus deck takes hold. Scattered showers and
storms will pop up southeast of Pittsburgh during the afternoon,
but confidence is too low for inclusion in LBE or MGW at this
time. A VFR evening is expected, with some fog possibly forming at
least from PIT on south starting around midnight.

.OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Potential exists for pre-dawn fog development Saturday morning.
Otherwise, the next chance for general restrictions is expected with
a Monday cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241140
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
740 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
there is still a chance of an isolated shower south of interstate
70 today. gradual drying and less humid conditions today with a
warming trend as we head through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Stalled cold front over Northern West Virginia will be the focus
of any activity today. The front will lay dormant for much of the
morning hours, but it does appear to bulge northward over the
ridges and far south during the afternoon. This should draw
additional low level moisture northward forcing the drier air to
shift further to the west. The will promote, at least, a modest
increase in cloud cover over portions of the south and also the
inclusion of pops in the ridges and locations near the Mason Dixon
line. With the low level flow near the boundary, moisture should
sweep up the ridge slopes, allowing for orographically induced
convection.

Temperatures will be close to normal, with more comfortable
humidity levels to the north.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
500mb ridge finally builds in on Saturday and will hold through
most of the weekend. This will mean an increase in sunshine,
temperatures and humidity. Temperatures Sunday will be pushing 90
degrees across much of the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Shower and thunderstorms chances return to the forecast Sunday
night as moisture pools ahead of the next front. Above normal
temperatures at the start of the period will become more
seasonable by Wednesday. Superblend guidance was used as a basis
for the grids.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Slow improvement will begin after sunrise, as the dewpoint
boundary will begin to make a renewed southward push once daytime
mixing begins. Expecting VFR conditions areawide by midday as fog
lifts and a BKN-OVC cumulus deck takes hold. Scattered showers and
storms will pop up southeast of Pittsburgh during the afternoon,
but confidence is too low for inclusion in LBE or MGW at this
time. A VFR evening is expected, with some fog possibly forming at
least from PIT on south starting around midnight.

.OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Potential exists for pre-dawn fog development Saturday morning.
Otherwise, the next chance for general restrictions is expected with
a Monday cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 241110
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
710 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary slowly drops south through the area today into
tonight. High pressure then builds in from the north over the
weekend. The next front moves into the region late Monday into
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Latest sfc analysis shows a frontal boundary over the nrn Mid
Atlc. Aloft, shortwave energy is approaching fm the nw within a
weak mid-level shortwave trough. This will help to finally drive
the aforementioned front s thru the region. Dry conds expected
most areas this morn; did carry a 20% pop with the atm remaining
quite moist. For this aftn, SPC continues to highlight the entire
area aside fm the Nrn Neck and Lwr Ern Shore in a slight risk for
severe wx. Main inhibitors are cloud cover and questionable
instability as the front drops s and sfc flow bcms nely. However,
svr parameters inc. deep layer shear up to ~40 kt are favorable
should any storms develop. Areal coverage of convection also looks
problematic...current forecast will call for pops ranging fm 30%
ne areas to 50% over the Piedmont. As with previous days this
week, went lwr than guidance wrt temps...highs ranging thru the
80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Chance pops continue this evening but taper off north to south
after midnight as high pressure to the north pushes the low and
associated frontal boundary farther south. Lows in the mid 60s
north to lwr 70s se.

High pressure to the north dominates the wx across the fa thru the
weekend with the front stalling out off the Carolina coast. Dry and
cooler with highs both days 80-85 except 75-80 along the coast. Lows
in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sunday night looks to remain dry and mild as the upper ridge extends
into the Middle Atlantic ahead of the deep upper low over the
Canadian Prairies. Heights lower Monday as the upper low over the
nrn Great Lakes moves east. This may allow for showers and
thunderstorms to develop Monday afternoon due to lee side
troughiness and continue into Monday night as the cold front slowly
approaches. Will need to maintain chances for showers and
thunderstorms on Tuesday as the front moves through. Cooler and
dry for Wed and Thu with dry NW flow.

Highs will start out in the lower 90s on Monday into Tuesday, with
temperatures lowering to the mid-upper 80s on Wed/Thu.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Vfr to start off the 12Z Taf period. A frntal bndry drops s thru
the area tda, bringing another chance of shras/tstms to all
terminals. Best chance is after noon...so introduced vcsh at that
point. Thunder is also psbl but confidence with timing is not high
enough to warrant mention in the Tafs at this point. Otherwise,
ceilings drop late in the day fm n to s...to mvfr and psbly ifr at
ksby. Light winds this morng will bcm nely behind the frnt this
eveng.

OUTLOOK...Drier weather is forecast tonight through Monday as
high pressure builds into the area from the north. There will be a
chance for showers/thunderstorms on Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest obs reflect sub-SCA conditions continuing across the waters.
W-SW winds on the order of 5-10 kt north, 10-15 kt south. Latest wx
analysis features weakening sfc front just north of the area, with
surface high pressure building down across the Northern Mid-Atlantic
from New England. this feature will continue to slowly nudge the
weak sfc front south across the waters later this morning through
early tonight. Meanwhile, low pressure will develop along the front
and move over the area. This will result in winds gradually veering
around to the NNE from north to south. Still do not expect
significant strengthening of the low and and therefore negligible
tightening of sfc pressure gradient should keep winds and waves
below SCA thresholds. The front slides farther south into the
Carolinas tonight. NW winds ~15 kt N, 10-15 kt south. Waves on the
Bay/Rivers/Sound 1-2 ft/Seas 2-4 ft.

The front remains quasi-stationary south of the local area on
Saturday, keeping NE winds aob 15 kt in place across the area
(though the Mouth of the Ches Bay will be close to SCA criteria
for much of the day). Seas will approach 5 ft out towards 20 nm
tomorrow. Given uncertainty and marginal nature of the event, we
have held off with headlines for now. High pressure builds across
the waters on Sunday before another cold front approaches the area
Monday Night into Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
All Flood advisories have expired, with rainfall totals on the
order of 1 to 1.5 inches out in the E VA Piedmont over the past 24
hours, with heavier rainfall totals upstream in the headwaters.
Areas of minor river flooding will be possible late tonight into
the weekend, most notably at Bremo Bluff and Richmond Westham.
Will continue to monitor river levels at these and other sites for
possible flood warnings over the next 12-24 hours

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS/MPR
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAM
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 241110
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
710 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary slowly drops south through the area today into
tonight. High pressure then builds in from the north over the
weekend. The next front moves into the region late Monday into
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Latest sfc analysis shows a frontal boundary over the nrn Mid
Atlc. Aloft, shortwave energy is approaching fm the nw within a
weak mid-level shortwave trough. This will help to finally drive
the aforementioned front s thru the region. Dry conds expected
most areas this morn; did carry a 20% pop with the atm remaining
quite moist. For this aftn, SPC continues to highlight the entire
area aside fm the Nrn Neck and Lwr Ern Shore in a slight risk for
severe wx. Main inhibitors are cloud cover and questionable
instability as the front drops s and sfc flow bcms nely. However,
svr parameters inc. deep layer shear up to ~40 kt are favorable
should any storms develop. Areal coverage of convection also looks
problematic...current forecast will call for pops ranging fm 30%
ne areas to 50% over the Piedmont. As with previous days this
week, went lwr than guidance wrt temps...highs ranging thru the
80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Chance pops continue this evening but taper off north to south
after midnight as high pressure to the north pushes the low and
associated frontal boundary farther south. Lows in the mid 60s
north to lwr 70s se.

High pressure to the north dominates the wx across the fa thru the
weekend with the front stalling out off the Carolina coast. Dry and
cooler with highs both days 80-85 except 75-80 along the coast. Lows
in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sunday night looks to remain dry and mild as the upper ridge extends
into the Middle Atlantic ahead of the deep upper low over the
Canadian Prairies. Heights lower Monday as the upper low over the
nrn Great Lakes moves east. This may allow for showers and
thunderstorms to develop Monday afternoon due to lee side
troughiness and continue into Monday night as the cold front slowly
approaches. Will need to maintain chances for showers and
thunderstorms on Tuesday as the front moves through. Cooler and
dry for Wed and Thu with dry NW flow.

Highs will start out in the lower 90s on Monday into Tuesday, with
temperatures lowering to the mid-upper 80s on Wed/Thu.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Vfr to start off the 12Z Taf period. A frntal bndry drops s thru
the area tda, bringing another chance of shras/tstms to all
terminals. Best chance is after noon...so introduced vcsh at that
point. Thunder is also psbl but confidence with timing is not high
enough to warrant mention in the Tafs at this point. Otherwise,
ceilings drop late in the day fm n to s...to mvfr and psbly ifr at
ksby. Light winds this morng will bcm nely behind the frnt this
eveng.

OUTLOOK...Drier weather is forecast tonight through Monday as
high pressure builds into the area from the north. There will be a
chance for showers/thunderstorms on Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest obs reflect sub-SCA conditions continuing across the waters.
W-SW winds on the order of 5-10 kt north, 10-15 kt south. Latest wx
analysis features weakening sfc front just north of the area, with
surface high pressure building down across the Northern Mid-Atlantic
from New England. this feature will continue to slowly nudge the
weak sfc front south across the waters later this morning through
early tonight. Meanwhile, low pressure will develop along the front
and move over the area. This will result in winds gradually veering
around to the NNE from north to south. Still do not expect
significant strengthening of the low and and therefore negligible
tightening of sfc pressure gradient should keep winds and waves
below SCA thresholds. The front slides farther south into the
Carolinas tonight. NW winds ~15 kt N, 10-15 kt south. Waves on the
Bay/Rivers/Sound 1-2 ft/Seas 2-4 ft.

The front remains quasi-stationary south of the local area on
Saturday, keeping NE winds aob 15 kt in place across the area
(though the Mouth of the Ches Bay will be close to SCA criteria
for much of the day). Seas will approach 5 ft out towards 20 nm
tomorrow. Given uncertainty and marginal nature of the event, we
have held off with headlines for now. High pressure builds across
the waters on Sunday before another cold front approaches the area
Monday Night into Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
All Flood advisories have expired, with rainfall totals on the
order of 1 to 1.5 inches out in the E VA Piedmont over the past 24
hours, with heavier rainfall totals upstream in the headwaters.
Areas of minor river flooding will be possible late tonight into
the weekend, most notably at Bremo Bluff and Richmond Westham.
Will continue to monitor river levels at these and other sites for
possible flood warnings over the next 12-24 hours

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS/MPR
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAM
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 241058
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
658 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary slowly drops south through the area today into
tonight. High pressure then builds in from the north over the
weekend. The next front moves into the region late Monday into
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Latest sfc analysis shows a frontal boundary over the nrn Mid
Atlc. Aloft, shortwave energy is approaching fm the nw within a
weak mid-level shortwave trough. This will help to finally drive
the aforementioned front s thru the region. Dry conds expected
most areas this morn; did carry a 20% pop with the atm remaining
quite moist. For this aftn, SPC continues to highlight the entire
area aside fm the Nrn Neck and Lwr Ern Shore in a slight risk for
severe wx. Main inhibitors are cloud cover and questionable
instability as the front drops s and sfc flow bcms nely. However,
svr parameters inc. deep layer shear up to ~40 kt are favorable
should any storms develop. Areal coverage of convection also looks
problematic...current forecast will call for pops ranging fm 30%
ne areas to 50% over the Piedmont. As with previous days this
week, went lwr than guidance wrt temps...highs ranging thru the
80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Chance pops continue this evening but taper off north to south
after midnight as high pressure to the north pushes the low and
associated frontal boundary farther south. Lows in the mid 60s
north to lwr 70s se.

High pressure to the north dominates the wx across the fa thru the
weekend with the front stalling out off the Carolina coast. Dry and
cooler with highs both days 80-85 except 75-80 along the coast. Lows
in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sunday night looks to remain dry and mild as the upper ridge extends
into the Middle Atlantic ahead of the deep upper low over the
Canadian Prairies. Heights lower Monday as the upper low over the
nrn Great Lakes moves east. This may allow for showers and
thunderstorms to develop Monday afternoon due to lee side
troughiness and continue into Monday night as the cold front slowly
approaches. Will need to maintain chances for showers and
thunderstorms on Tuesday as the front moves through. Cooler and
dry for Wed and Thu with dry NW flow.

Highs will start out in the lower 90s on Monday into Tuesday, with
temperatures lowering to the mid-upper 80s on Wed/Thu.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Vfr to start off the 12Z Taf period. A frntal bndry drops s thru
the area tda, bringing another chance of shras/tstms to all
terminals. Best chance is after noon...so introduced vcsh at that
point. Thunder is also psbl but confidence with timing is not high
enough to warrant mention in the Tafs at this point. Otherwise,
ceilings drop late in the day fm n to s...to mvfr and psbly ifr at
ksby. Light winds this morng will bcm nely behind the frnt this
eveng.

OUTLOOK...Drier weather is forecast tonight through Monday as
high pressure builds into the area from the north. There will be a
chance for showers/thunderstorms on Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest obs reflect sub-SCA conditions continuing across the waters.
W-SW winds on the order of 5-10 kt north, 10-15 kt south. Latest wx
analysis features weakening sfc front just north of the area, with
surface high pressure building down across the Northern Mid-Atlantic
from New England. this feature will continue to slowly nudge the
weak sfc front south across the waters later this morning through
early tonight. Meanwhile, low pressure will develop along the front
and move over the area. This will result in winds gradually veering
around to the NNE from north to south. Still do not expect
significant strengthening of the low and and therefore negligible
tightening of sfc pressure gradient should keep winds and waves
below SCA thresholds. The front slides farther south into the
Carolinas tonight. NW winds ~15 kt N, 10-15 kt south. Waves on the
Bay/Rivers/Sound 1-2 ft/Seas 2-4 ft.

The front remains quasi-stationary south of the local area on
Saturday, keeping NE winds aob 15 kt in place across the area. High
pressure builds across the waters on Sunday before another cold
front approaches the area Monday Night into Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
All Flood advisories have expired, with rainfall totals on the
order of 1 to 1.5 inches out in the E VA Piedmont over the past 24
hours, with heavier rainfall totals upstream in the headwaters.
Areas of minor river flooding will be possible late tonight into
the weekend, most notably at Bremo Bluff and Richmond Westham.
Will continue to monitor river levels at these and other sites for
possible flood warnings over the next 12-24 hours

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS/MPR
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAM
HYDROLOGY...MAM




000
FXUS61 KPHI 240939
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
539 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will over the northern Delmarva and southern New
Jersey early this morning will gradually push south of the area
today. High pressure will build into the region for this weekend.
As the high moves offshore Monday, a slow moving cold front will
approach from the northwest Tuesday, and move through the region
Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
530 AM update...Made some slight changes to the hourly PoPs and
weather grids based on the latest mesoanalysis and radar trends.
The focus of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms early
this morning will be along the frontal boundary in northeast MD,
DE and southern NJ.

Previous discussion...
A cold front was located over the area (somewhere near the I-95
corridor) early this morning. The front was marked by surface
winds from the north or northeast and temps/dewpoints in the upper
50s to lower 60s north of the boundary while southerly winds and
temps/dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s resided to the
south.

There were isolated showers present for much of the night near the
frontal boundary in southern NJ and the northern Delmarva. These
showers have been very light thus far. Interestingly, the HRRR has
been remarkably persistent/consistent over the past five or so runs
(ending with the 05Z run) that showers and thunderstorms form over
the Delmarva early this morning, resulting in a localized area of
heavy rainfall of 2+ inches (the 03Z HRRR showed a band of 5-8 of
rainfall in 4 hours but successive runs have since backed off from
these extreme amounts). Though it`s an extremely unlikely scenario
that is not supported by other model guidance, LAPS/SPC mesoanalysis
shows about 500-750 J/kg of MUCAPE and a local PWAT maximum near 1.7
inches over the northern Delmarva, which would be enough to support
low-topped heavy rain producers in this environment. PoPs early this
morning were raised to about 40 percent across these southern zones.

The front will eventually push south of the area later this morning
and afternoon as high pressure build in from the Great Lakes. With
breaks in the clouds today, temperatures could peak in the mid 80s
along and west of I-95. An easterly wind off the ocean will keep
temperatures cooler (70s) in the coastal plain today. We could see a
fair amount of stratocu develop in this maritime airmass during the
afternoon.

While most of the CWA should remain dry today, there are two areas
for potential shower development this afternoon. First, the
juxtaposition of lower-tropospheric convergence at the nose of weak
easterly jet to the north of a H9-H8 trough and upper-tropospheric
divergence in the right entrance region of a jet streak implies
forcing for ascent that is needed to maintain any convection across
the Delmarva today. Model forecast soundings support adding in a
slight chance for thunderstorms during peak heating. There is lesser
confidence for the development of upslope showers in our far western
zones in eastern PA but a mid-level shortwave trough could
potentially provide a brief period of deeper lift as it approaches
from the west this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
The center of the surface high retreats off the New England coast
tonight. However, the high will still control our weather pattern
with the ridge axis expected to extend southwestward from the high
in to the northern mid-Atlantic region. Surface winds will back from
easterly at the start of the period to northeasterly by early
morning as low pressure moves offshore.

There is a potential for marine stratus to advect inland tonight
owing to the onshore flow. These low clouds in addition to higher
convective debris clouds are anticipated to curb radiational
cooling, especially the closer you are to the coast. Forecast lows
are in the mid to upper 50s in northeast PA/ northwest NJ and low to
mid 60s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The weekend will be dry with high pres over the region. The high
will slowly move ewd and offshore by Mon. As the high departs, low
pres in Ontario will move ewd. Its attendant cdfnt will approach
from the w, and cross the area on Tue. The GFS then keeps things
dry Wed into Thu. However, the ECMWF (with some support from the
CMC) wants to bring a second front through on WEd and another
shot of precip, before drying things out later Wed into Thu. For
right now, will carry low pops Tue wino erly Wed and no pops
after that.

Temps look to be nr nrml with comfortable humidity values thru the
pd.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Brief/local MVFR restrictions is possible early this morning at ILG,
MIV or ACY if a shower moves over the terminal. Coverage of showers
are too low to include in 06Z TAFs but will issue amendments if
necessary. Additionally, brief visibility restrictions are possible
farther north if patchy fog develops toward sunrise. Otherwise,
expect mainly VFR today. Winds are currently light and variable, but
will become northeasterly around 5-10 kt after sunrise. Winds veer
to easterly this afternoon with speeds of 10-15 kt.

There is a potential for low clouds to develop offshore and move
inland late this evening and overnight. This may yield MVFR or IFR
restrictions. Forecast confidence decreases farther away from the
coast. Therefore, limited IFR restrictions in the forecast to MIV
and ACY.

Outlook...
Sat and Sun...Predominantly VFR. Patchy ground fog may lead to
sub-VFR conditions late Saturday night and early Sunday morning,
mainly at ABE, MIV, and RDG.  Moderate Confidence.

Mon and Mon night...VFR. High Confidence.

Tue...A cdfnt will move slowly acrs the region and be accompanied
by shra/tsra. VFR will prevail, then MVFR/IFR psbl with fropa.
Still some timing diffs with cfp. Moderate confidence.

&&

.MARINE...
Light onshore flow will develop this morning and increase to 10-15
kt with gusts to 20 kt this afternoon and tonight. Seas will
accordingly build to around 4 ft in our coastal Atlantic waters by
tonight. There is a potential for wave heights to approach 5 ft by
late tonight but confidence in this happening was too low to issue a
SCA at this time.

Outlook...
Sat...Latest guid indicates that we cud have sca conds with a e to
ne flow which cud linger into Sat night.

Sun thru Tue...No marine headlines anticipated.

RIP CURRENTS...Seas off the coast will build to 3-4 ft in
response to an onshore flow that develops this morning and
strengthens this afternoon. Medium-period southerly swells will be
around 2 or 3 ft. In this setup, the risk for the formation of
dangerous rip currents will approach moderate this afternoon.

Based on the expected wind, wave and swell conditions a moderate
risk for the development of dangerous rip currents may persist
into Saturday along the New Jersey shore and at the Delaware
Beaches.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Klein/Nierenberg
Near Term...Klein
Short Term...Klein
Long Term...Nierenberg
Aviation...Klein/Nierenberg
Marine...Klein/Nierenberg




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240813
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
413 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SLowly drying conditions today with a warming trend as we head
through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Stalled cold front over Northern West Virginia will be the focus
of any activity today. The front will lay dormant for much of the
morning hours, but it does appear to bulge northward over the
ridges and far south during the afternoon. This should draw
additional low level moisture northward forcing the drier air to
shift further to the west. The will promote, at least, a modest
increase in cloud cover over portions of the south and also the
inclusion of pops in the ridges and locations near the Mason Dixon
line. With the low level flow near the boundary, moisture should
sweep up the ridge slopes, allowing for orographically induced
convection.

Temperatures will be close to normal, with more comfortable
humidity levels to the north.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
500mb ridge finally builds in on Saturday and will hold through
most of the weekend. This will mean an increase in sunshine,
temperatures and humidity. Temperatures Sunday will be pushing 90
degrees across much of the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Shower and thunderstorms chances return to the forecast Sunday
night as moisture pools ahead of the next front. Above normal
temperatures at the start of the period will become more
seasonable by Wednesday. Superblend guidance was used as a basis
for the grids.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A boundary representing lower dewpoint is in the general vicinity
of I-80 and will remain there through the night. This will result
in brief MVFR conditions at worst for FKL/DUJ with some light fog.
To the south, expecting IFR or worse conditions for the remainder
of the terminals in low clouds and fog. Slow improvement will
begin after sunrise, and the dewpoint boundary will begin to make
a renewed southward push once daytime mixing begins. Expecting VFR
conditions areawide by midday as fog lifts and a BKN-OVC cumulus
deck takes hold. Scattered showers and storms will pop up
southeast of Pittsburgh during the afternoon, but confidence is
too low for inclusion in LBE or MGW at this time. A VFR evening is
expected, with some fog possibly forming at least from PIT on
south starting around midnight.

.OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Potential exists for pre-dawn fog development Saturday morning.
Otherwise, the next chance for general restrictions is expected with
a Monday cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240805 CCA
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
405 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary slowly drops south through the area today into
tonight. High pressure then builds in from the north over the
weekend. The next front moves into the region late Monday into
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Latest sfc analysis shows a frontal boundary over the nrn Mid
Atlc. Aloft, shortwave energy is approaching fm the nw within a
weak mid-level shortwave trough. This will help to finally drive
the aforementioned front s thru the region. Dry conds expected
most areas this morn; did carry a 20% pop with the atm remaining
quite moist. For this aftn, SPC continues to highlight the entire
area aside fm the Nrn Neck and Lwr Ern Shore in a slight risk for
severe wx. Main inhibitors are cloud cover and questionable
instability as the front drops s and sfc flow bcms nely. However,
svr parameters inc. deep layer shear up to ~40 kt are favorable
should any storms develop. Areal coverage of convection also looks
problematic...current forecast will call for pops ranging fm 30%
ne areas to 50% over the Piedmont. As with previous days this
week, went lwr than guidance wrt temps...highs ranging thru the
80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Chance pops continue this evening but taper off north to south
after midnight as high pressure to the north pushes the low and
associated frontal boundary farther south. Lows in the mid 60s
north to lwr 70s se.

High pressure to the north dominates the wx across the fa thru the
weekend with the front stalling out off the Carolina coast. Dry and
cooler with highs both days 80-85 except 75-80 along the coast. Lows
in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sunday night looks to remain dry and mild as the upper ridge extends
into the Middle Atlantic ahead of the deep upper low over the
Canadian Prairies. Heights lower Monday as the upper low over the
nrn Great Lakes moves east. This may allow for showers and
thunderstorms to develop Monday afternoon due to lee side
troughiness and continue into Monday night as the cold front slowly
approaches. Will need to maintain chances for showers and
thunderstorms on Tuesday as the front moves through. Cooler and
dry for Wed and Thu with dry NW flow.

Highs will start out in the lower 90s on Monday into Tuesday, with
temperatures lowering to the mid-upper 80s on Wed/Thu.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Due to dry conditions in the low levels...mainly VFR conditions
are expected, with IFR stratus and fog possible early this morning
at SBY. Scattered showers/tstms can be expected as the frontal
boundary sinks slowly to the south but there is not enough
confidence to mention in the TAFs aside from vcsh. The best
chance for thunderstorms will be at ECG.

OUTLOOK...Dry weather is forecast tonight through Monday as high
pressure builds into the area from the north. There will be a
chance for thunderstorms on Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest obs reflect sub-SCA conditions continuing across the waters.
W-SW winds on the order of 5-10 kt north, 10-15 kt south. Latest wx
analysis features weakening sfc front just north of the area, with
surface high pressure building down across the Northern Mid-Atlantic
from New England. this feature will continue to slowly nudge the
weak sfc front south across the waters later this morning through
early tonight. Meanwhile, low pressure will develop along the front
and move over the area. This will result in winds gradually veering
around to the NNE from north to south. Still do not expect
significant strengthening of the low and and therefore negligible
tightening of sfc pressure gradient should keep winds and waves
below SCA thresholds. The front slides farther south into the
Carolinas tonight. NW winds ~15 kt N, 10-15 kt south. Waves on the
Bay/Rivers/Sound 1-2 ft/Seas 2-4 ft.

The front remains quasi-stationary south of the local area on
Saturday, keeping NE winds aob 15 kt in place across the area. High
pressure builds across the waters on Sunday before another cold
front approaches the area Monday Night into Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
All Flood advisories have expired, with rainfall totals on the
order of 1 to 1.5 inches out in the E VA Piedmont over the past 24
hours, with heavier rainfall totals upstream in the headwaters.
Areas of minor river flooding will be possible late tonight into
the weekend, most notably at Bremo Bluff and Richmond Westham.
Will continue to monitor river levels at these and other sites for
possible flood warnings over the next 12-24 hours

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS/MPR
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS/MPR
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...MAS/LSA
MARINE...MAM
HYDROLOGY...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240801
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
401 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary slowly drops south through the area today into
tonight. High pressure then builds in from the north over the
weekend. The next front moves into the region late Monday into
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Latest sfc analysis shows a frontal boundary over the nrn Mid
Atlc. Aloft, shortwave energy is approaching fm the nw within a
weak mid-level shortwave trough. This will help to finally drive
the aforementioned front s thru the region. Dry conds expected
most areas this morn; did carry a 20% pop with the atm remaining
quite moist. For this aftn, SPC continues to highlight the entire
area aside fm the Nrn Neck and Lwr Ern Shore in a slight risk for
severe wx. Main inhibitors are cloud cover and questionable
instability as the front drops s and sfc flow bcms nely. However,
svr parameters inc. deep layer shear up to ~40 kt are favorable
should any storms develop. Areal coverage of convection also looks
problematic...current forecast will call for pops ranging fm 30%
ne areas to 50% over the Piedmont. As with previous days this
week, went lwr than guidance wrt temps...highs ranging thru the
80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Chance pops continue this evening but taper off north to south
after midnight as high pressure to the north pushes the low and
associated frontal boundary farther south. Lows in the mid 60s
north to lwr 70s se.

High pressure to the north dominates the wx across the fa thru the
weekend with the front stalling out off the Carolina coast. Dry and
cooler with highs both days 80-85 except 75-80 along the coast. Lows
in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sunday night looks to remain dry and mild as the upper ridge extends
into the Middle Atlantic ahead of the deep upper low over the
Canadian Prairies. Heights lower Monday as the upper low over the
nrn Great Lakes moves east. This may allow for showers and
thunderstorms to develop Monday afternoon due to lee side
troughiness and continue into Monday night as the cold front slowly
approaches. Will need to maintain chances for showers and
thunderstorms on Tuesday as the front moves through. Cooler and
dry for Wed and Thu with dry NW flow.

Highs will start out in the lower 90s on Monday into Tuesday, with
temperatures lowering to the mid-upper 80s on Wed/Thu.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Due to dry conditions in the low levels...mainly VFR conditions
are expected, with IFR stratus and fog possible early this morning
at SBY. Scattered showers/tstms can be expected as the frontal
boundary sinks slowly to the south but there is not enough
confidence to mention in the TAFs aside from vcsh. The best
chance for thunderstorms will be at ECG.

OUTLOOK...Dry weather is forecast tonight through Monday as high
pressure builds into the area from the north. There will be a
chance for thunderstorms on Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest obs reflect sub-SCA conditions continuing across the waters.
W-SW winds on the order of 5-10 kt north, 10-15 kt south. Latest wx
analysis features weakening sfc front just north of the area, with
surface high pressure building down across the Northern Mid-Atlantic
from New England. this feature will continue to slowly nudge the
weak sfc front south across the waters later this morning through
early tonight. Meanwhile, low pressure will develop along the front
and move over the area. This will result in winds gradually veering
around to the NNE from north to south. Still do not expect
significant strengthening of the low and and therefore negligible
tightening of sfc pressure gradient should keep winds and waves
below SCA thresholds. The front slides farther south into the
Carolinas tonight. NW winds ~15 kt N, 10-15 kt south. Waves on the
Bay/Rivers/Sound 1-2 ft/Seas 2-4 ft.

The front remains quasi-stationary south of the local area on
Saturday, keeping NE winds aob 15 kt in place across the area. High
pressure builds across the waters on Sunday before another cold
front approaches the area Monday Night into Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
All Flood advisory have expired, with rainfall totals on the
order of 1 to 1.5 inches out in the piedmont, with heavier
rainfall totals upstream in the headwaters. Areas of minor river
flooding will be possible late tonight into the weekend, most
notably at Bremo Bluff and Richmond Westham. Will continue to
monitor river levels at these and other sites for possible flood
warnings over the next 12-24 hours

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS/MPR
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS/MPR
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...MAS/LSA
MARINE...MAM
HYDROLOGY...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KPHI 240757
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
357 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A stalled front will remain near the Delmarva today before pushing
southward tonight. High pressure will build into the region for
this weekend. As the high moves offshore Monday, a slow moving
cold front will approach from the northwest Tuesday, and move
through the region Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A cold front was located over the area (somewhere near the I-95
corridor) early this morning. The front was marked by surface winds
from the north or northeast and temps/dewpoints in the upper 50s to
lower 60s north of the boundary while southerly winds and
temps/dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s resided to the south.

There were isolated showers present for much of the night near the
frontal boundary in southern NJ and the northern Delmarva. These
showers have been very light thus far. Interestingly, the HRRR has
been remarkably persistent/consistent over the past five or so runs
(ending with the 05Z run) that showers and thunderstorms form over
the Delmarva early this morning, resulting in a localized area of
heavy rainfall of 2+ inches (the 03Z HRRR showed a band of 5-8 of
rainfall in 4 hours but successive runs have since backed off from
these extreme amounts). Though it`s an extremely unlikely scenario
that is not supported by other model guidance, LAPS/SPC mesoanalysis
shows about 500-750 J/kg of MUCAPE and a local PWAT maximum near 1.7
inches over the northern Delmarva, which would be enough to support
low-topped heavy rain producers in this environment. PoPs early this
morning were raised to about 40 percent across these southern zones.

The front will eventually push south of the area later this morning
and afternoon as high pressure build in from the Great Lakes. With
breaks in the clouds today, temperatures could peak in the mid 80s
along and west of I-95. An easterly wind off the ocean will keep
temperatures cooler (70s) in the coastal plain today. We could see a
fair amount of stratocu develop in this maritime airmass during the
afternoon.

While most of the CWA should remain dry today, there are two areas
for potential shower development this afternoon. First, the
juxtaposition of lower-tropospheric convergence at the nose of weak
easterly jet to the north of a H9-H8 trough and upper-tropospheric
divergence in the right entrance region of a jet streak implies
forcing for ascent that is needed to maintain any convection across
the Delmarva today. Model forecast soundings support adding in a
slight chance for thunderstorms during peak heating. There is lesser
confidence for the development of upslope showers in our far western
zones in eastern PA but a mid-level shortwave trough could
potentially provide a brief period of deeper lift as it approaches
from the west this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
The center of the surface high retreats off the New England coast
tonight. However, the high will still control our weather pattern
with the ridge axis expected to extend southwestward from the high
in to the northern mid-Atlantic region. Surface winds will back from
easterly at the start of the period to northeasterly by early
morning as low pressure moves offshore.

There is a potential for marine stratus to advect inland tonight
owing to the onshore flow. These low clouds in addition to higher
convective debris clouds are anticipated to curb radiational
cooling, especially the closer you are to the coast. Forecast lows
are in the mid to upper 50s in northeast PA/ northwest NJ and low to
mid 60s elsewhere.



&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The weekend will be dry with high pres over the region. The high
will slowly move ewd and offshore by Mon. As the high departs, low
pres in Ontario will move ewd. Its attendant cdfnt will approach
from the w, and cross the area on Tue. The GFS then keeps things
dry Wed into Thu. However, the ECMWF (with some support from the
CMC) wants to bring a second front through on WEd and another
shot of precip, before drying things out later Wed into Thu. For
right now, will carry low pops Tue wino erly Wed and no pops
after that.

Temps look to be nr nrml with comfortable humidity values thru the
pd.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Brief/local MVFR restrictions is possible early this morning at ILG,
MIV or ACY if a shower moves over the terminal. Coverage of showers
are too low to include in 06Z TAFs but will issue amendments if
necessary. Additionally, brief visibility restrictions are possible
farther north if patchy fog develops toward sunrise. Otherwise,
expect mainly VFR today. Winds are currently light and variable, but
will become northeasterly around 5-10 kt after sunrise. Winds veer
to easterly this afternoon with speeds of 10-15 kt.

There is a potential for low clouds to develop offshore and move
inland late this evening and overnight. This may yield MVFR or IFR
restrictions. Forecast confidence decreases farther away from the
coast. Therefore, limited IFR restrictions in the forecast to MIV
and ACY.

Outlook...
Sat and Sun...Predominantly VFR. Patchy ground fog may lead to
sub-VFR conditions late Saturday night and early Sunday morning,
mainly at ABE, MIV, and RDG.  Moderate Confidence.

Mon and Mon night...VFR. High Confidence.

Tue...A cdfnt will move slowly acrs the region and be accompanied
by shra/tsra. VFR will prevail, then MVFR/IFR psbl with fropa.
Still some timing diffs with cfp. Moderate confidence.

&&

.MARINE...
Light onshore flow will develop this morning and increase to 10-15
kt with gusts to 20 kt this afternoon and tonight. Seas will
accordingly build to around 4 ft in our coastal Atlantic waters by
tonight. There is a potential for wave heights to approach 5 ft by
late tonight but confidence in this happening was too low to issue a
SCA at this time.

Outlook...
Sat...Latest guid indicates that we cud have sca conds with a e to
ne flow which cud linger into Sat night.

Sun thru Tue...No marine headlines anticipated.


&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Nierenberg
Near Term...Klein
Short Term...Klein
Long Term...Nierenberg
Aviation...Klein/Nierenberg
Marine...Klein/Nierenberg




000
FXUS61 KPHI 240757
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
357 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A stalled front will remain near the Delmarva today before pushing
southward tonight. High pressure will build into the region for
this weekend. As the high moves offshore Monday, a slow moving
cold front will approach from the northwest Tuesday, and move
through the region Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A cold front was located over the area (somewhere near the I-95
corridor) early this morning. The front was marked by surface winds
from the north or northeast and temps/dewpoints in the upper 50s to
lower 60s north of the boundary while southerly winds and
temps/dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s resided to the south.

There were isolated showers present for much of the night near the
frontal boundary in southern NJ and the northern Delmarva. These
showers have been very light thus far. Interestingly, the HRRR has
been remarkably persistent/consistent over the past five or so runs
(ending with the 05Z run) that showers and thunderstorms form over
the Delmarva early this morning, resulting in a localized area of
heavy rainfall of 2+ inches (the 03Z HRRR showed a band of 5-8 of
rainfall in 4 hours but successive runs have since backed off from
these extreme amounts). Though it`s an extremely unlikely scenario
that is not supported by other model guidance, LAPS/SPC mesoanalysis
shows about 500-750 J/kg of MUCAPE and a local PWAT maximum near 1.7
inches over the northern Delmarva, which would be enough to support
low-topped heavy rain producers in this environment. PoPs early this
morning were raised to about 40 percent across these southern zones.

The front will eventually push south of the area later this morning
and afternoon as high pressure build in from the Great Lakes. With
breaks in the clouds today, temperatures could peak in the mid 80s
along and west of I-95. An easterly wind off the ocean will keep
temperatures cooler (70s) in the coastal plain today. We could see a
fair amount of stratocu develop in this maritime airmass during the
afternoon.

While most of the CWA should remain dry today, there are two areas
for potential shower development this afternoon. First, the
juxtaposition of lower-tropospheric convergence at the nose of weak
easterly jet to the north of a H9-H8 trough and upper-tropospheric
divergence in the right entrance region of a jet streak implies
forcing for ascent that is needed to maintain any convection across
the Delmarva today. Model forecast soundings support adding in a
slight chance for thunderstorms during peak heating. There is lesser
confidence for the development of upslope showers in our far western
zones in eastern PA but a mid-level shortwave trough could
potentially provide a brief period of deeper lift as it approaches
from the west this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
The center of the surface high retreats off the New England coast
tonight. However, the high will still control our weather pattern
with the ridge axis expected to extend southwestward from the high
in to the northern mid-Atlantic region. Surface winds will back from
easterly at the start of the period to northeasterly by early
morning as low pressure moves offshore.

There is a potential for marine stratus to advect inland tonight
owing to the onshore flow. These low clouds in addition to higher
convective debris clouds are anticipated to curb radiational
cooling, especially the closer you are to the coast. Forecast lows
are in the mid to upper 50s in northeast PA/ northwest NJ and low to
mid 60s elsewhere.



&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The weekend will be dry with high pres over the region. The high
will slowly move ewd and offshore by Mon. As the high departs, low
pres in Ontario will move ewd. Its attendant cdfnt will approach
from the w, and cross the area on Tue. The GFS then keeps things
dry Wed into Thu. However, the ECMWF (with some support from the
CMC) wants to bring a second front through on WEd and another
shot of precip, before drying things out later Wed into Thu. For
right now, will carry low pops Tue wino erly Wed and no pops
after that.

Temps look to be nr nrml with comfortable humidity values thru the
pd.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Brief/local MVFR restrictions is possible early this morning at ILG,
MIV or ACY if a shower moves over the terminal. Coverage of showers
are too low to include in 06Z TAFs but will issue amendments if
necessary. Additionally, brief visibility restrictions are possible
farther north if patchy fog develops toward sunrise. Otherwise,
expect mainly VFR today. Winds are currently light and variable, but
will become northeasterly around 5-10 kt after sunrise. Winds veer
to easterly this afternoon with speeds of 10-15 kt.

There is a potential for low clouds to develop offshore and move
inland late this evening and overnight. This may yield MVFR or IFR
restrictions. Forecast confidence decreases farther away from the
coast. Therefore, limited IFR restrictions in the forecast to MIV
and ACY.

Outlook...
Sat and Sun...Predominantly VFR. Patchy ground fog may lead to
sub-VFR conditions late Saturday night and early Sunday morning,
mainly at ABE, MIV, and RDG.  Moderate Confidence.

Mon and Mon night...VFR. High Confidence.

Tue...A cdfnt will move slowly acrs the region and be accompanied
by shra/tsra. VFR will prevail, then MVFR/IFR psbl with fropa.
Still some timing diffs with cfp. Moderate confidence.

&&

.MARINE...
Light onshore flow will develop this morning and increase to 10-15
kt with gusts to 20 kt this afternoon and tonight. Seas will
accordingly build to around 4 ft in our coastal Atlantic waters by
tonight. There is a potential for wave heights to approach 5 ft by
late tonight but confidence in this happening was too low to issue a
SCA at this time.

Outlook...
Sat...Latest guid indicates that we cud have sca conds with a e to
ne flow which cud linger into Sat night.

Sun thru Tue...No marine headlines anticipated.


&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Nierenberg
Near Term...Klein
Short Term...Klein
Long Term...Nierenberg
Aviation...Klein/Nierenberg
Marine...Klein/Nierenberg




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240754
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
354 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary slowly drops south through the area today into
tonight. High pressure then builds in from the north over the
weekend. The next front moves into the region late Monday into
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Latest sfc analysis shows a frntal bndry over the nrn Mid Atlc.
Aloft, shortwave energy is approaching fm the nw within a weak
mid-level shortwave trof. This will help to finally drive the
aforementioned frnt s thru the region. Dry conds expected most
areas this morng; did carry a 20% pop with the atm remaining quite
moist. For this aftn, SPC continues to highlight the entire area
aside fm the Nrn Neck and Lwr Ern Shore in a slight risk for
severe wx. Main inhibitors are cloud cover and questionable
instability as the frnt drops s and sfc flow bcms nely. However,
svr parameters inc. deep layer shear up to ~40 kt are favorable
should any storms develop. Areal coverage of convection also looks
problematic...current forecast will call for pops ranging fm 30%
ne areas to 50% over the Piedmont. As with previous days this
week, went lwr than guidance wrt temps...highs ranging thru the
80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Chance pops continue this evening but taper off north to south
after midnight as high pressure to the north pushes the low and
associated frontal boundary farther south. Lows in the mid 60s
north to lwr 70s se.

High pressure to the north dominates the wx across the fa thru the
weekend with the front stalling out off the Carolina coast. Dry and
cooler with highs both days 80-85 except 75-80 along the coast. Lows
in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sunday night looks to remain dry and mild as the upper ridge extends
into the Middle Atlantic ahead of the deep upper low over the
Canadian Prairies. Heights lower Monday as the upper low over the
nrn Great Lakes moves east. This may allow for showers and
thunderstorms to develop Monday afternoon due to lee side
troughiness and continue into Monday night as the cold front slowly
approaches. Will need to maintain chances for showers and
thunderstorms on Tuesday as the front moves through. Cooler and
dry for Wed and Thu with dry NW flow.

Highs will start out in the lower 90s on Monday into Tuesday, with
temperatures lowering to the mid-upper 80s on Wed/Thu.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Due to dry conditions in the low levels...mainly VFR conditions
are expected, with IFR stratus and fog possible early this morning
at SBY. Scattered showers/tstms can be expected as the frontal
boundary sinks slowly to the south but there is not enough
confidence to mention in the TAFs aside from vcsh. The best
chance for thunderstorms will be at ECG.

OUTLOOK...Dry weather is forecast tonight through Monday as high
pressure builds into the area from the north. There will be a
chance for thunderstorms on Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Generally quiet conditions across the marine area for the next few
days. The stationary front across nrn VA will slowly move south
across the waters through Friday. Meanwhile, low pressure will
develop along the front and move over the area. As such...south-
southwest winds tonight will gradually turn northeasterly by Friday
night across the waters. Do not expect significant strengthening of
the low and as such am thinking the winds over the coastal waters
will stay well below 20 kt and waves will stay in the 3-4 ft range.
The front remains stationary Saturday keeping NE winds across the
area. High pressure builds across the waters on Sunday before
another cold front approaches the area Monday Night into Tuesday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS/MPR
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...MAS/LSA
MARINE...MAM




000
FXUS61 KLWX 240726
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
326 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper-level disturbance will pass through the area today. High
pressure will build into the region tonight through Sunday. The
high will move off the coast Sunday night into Monday and a cold
front will pass through Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Mild and humid conditions are across the Mid-Atlantic region this
morning as a frontal boundary remains in place. High pressure is
across the Great Lakes and New England this morning.

As of 730z... Fog has formed in some low lying areas early this
morning. Clouds are moving into the region so widespread fog is not
anticipated however patchy fog may cause sudden reductions in vsbys.

The Mid-Atlantic region is still susceptible to showers
and thunderstorms today as a warm and humid airmass remains in
place. A shortwave trough co-located with an upper level jet will
swing through the region this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms
are expected to develop late this morning and afternoon as
conditions destabilize. There is uncertainty with the amt of cloud
cover today. As of now...low clouds are expected to hang around
through the morning. Clouds should lift by afternoon and scatter out
some.
This may lead to increased instability across a region that moderate
shear profiles. Hi-res guidance is showing disorganized iso-sct
convection by this afternoon with the main threat for showers and
thunderstorms west of the Blue Ridge mountains. This region will
have higher sfc dewpts and therefore more SBCAPE. There is a slight
chance from severe thunderstorms today across VA....DC and southern
MD. Further north...N-NE flow will likely keep conditions more
stable.

The shortwave trough will move off the coast tonight. Showers will
linger into the evening hours especially across the SW portion of
the lookout area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will  move into the region Saturday and N- NE winds
are expected. Low clouds are likely Saturday morning and should
break by afternoon with the exception of the highlands where low
clouds will persist. Max temps in the low 80s expected Saturday.
High pressure will build into the region further Sat night and
calm and clear conditions expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will remain overhead Sunday...bringing dry and
seasonably warm conditions along with low humidity. The high
will move off the coast Sunday night into Monday and a cold front
will approach from the west later Monday. A southerly flow will
usher in more humid conditions ahead of the boundary...and this
may lead to some showers and thunderstorms...especially during the
afternoon and evening hours.

The cold front will pass through Tuesday...bringing the chance for
a few more showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will return
for Wednesday and Thursday behind the cold front...bringing cooler
and less humid conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low clouds are moving into the region from the NW this morning.
Sub-vfr conditions expected this morning. Patchy fog has also
been observed outside the terminals. Think the main impact this
morning will be mvfr cigs through mid-morning. Cigs should lift by
this afternoon and prevailing vfr conditions are expected.
SHRA/VCTS is possible this afternoon with the best chance of TS at
CHO. Heavy rain and gusty winds possible this afternoon.

SHRA will wane this evening. N-NE winds expected at the terminals
and low cigs are expected tonight with a better chance for IFR
conditions. Fog is also possible tonight into Saturday morning
causing sub-vfr vsbys. Sub-vfr cigs possible Sat night.

High pressure will bring vfr conditions Sunday into Monday.
A few showers and thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon into
Monday night. A cold front will pass through Tuesday...bringing
the chance for a few more showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
N-NE winds expected on the waters through Saturday night.
Showers are expected through this afternoon. Showers will likely
cause brief periods of gusty winds. At this time...coverage seems to
be isolated and no hazards are expected.

High pressure will remain over the waters Sunday before moving off
to the east Sunday night. Winds will turn toward the southeast
during this time...but speeds should remain below sca criteria.

An approaching cold front Monday may trigger some showers and
thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. A few more
showers and thunderstorms are possible Tuesday into Tuesday
night as the cold front passes. Gusty winds are possible in any
thunderstorms that develop. High pressure will build during the
middle portion of next week.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/HAS
MARINE...BJL/HAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240647
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
247 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary becomes stationary near the VA NC border
overnight...then remains there through Friday. High pressure
builds in from the north over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Frontal becoming stationary ovr far srn/SE VA attm. Earlier
strong convection has settled S into NC. Atmos stabilized has
and expecting rather widespread shras/isold tstms for
overnight...esp cntrl/srn VA into NE NC. Trended POPs gradually
down aft mdngt fm NW to SE. Lows in the u60s-l70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Models slower with taking the front into North Carolina Friday.
Enough moisture / instability available for chc pops most areas
Friday despite the high pressure building South. A wave of low
pressure along this boundary will likely enhance the convection
across southern zones after 18z. Have increased pops to likely there
with SPC keeping most areas south of I64 in SLGHT risk for severe
tstms. Severe threat will likely depend on location of the front
and points south of it. Threat will be damaging winds / large
hail. Temps tricky as a NE wind will likely keep coastal/beach
areas in the upr 70s-lwr 80s...mid-upr 80s west of the bay.

Chance pops continue Friday evening but taper off north to south
after midnight as high pressure to the north pushes the low and
assocated frontal boundary farther south. Lows in the mid 60s north
to lwr 70s se.

High pressure to the north dominates the wx across the fa thru the
weekend with the front stalling out off the Carolina coast. Dry and
cooler with highs both days 80-85 except 75-80 along the coast. Lows
in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sunday night looks to remain dry and mild as the upper ridge extends
into the Middle Atlantic ahead of the deep upper low over the
Canadian Prairies. Heights lower Monday as the upper low over the
nrn Great Lakes moves east. This may allow for showers and
thunderstorms to develop Monday afternoon due to lee side
troughiness and continue into Monday night as the cold front slowly
approaches. Will need to maintain chances for showers and
thunderstorms on Tuesday as the front moves through. Cooler and
dry for Wed and Thu with dry NW flow.

Highs will start out in the lower 90s on Monday into Tuesday, with
temperatures lowering to the mid-upper 80s on Wed/Thu.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Due to dry conditions in the low levels...mainly VFR conditions
are expected, with IFR stratus and fog possible early this morning
at SBY. Scattered showers/tstms can be expected as the frontal
boundary sinks slowly to the south but there is not enough
confidence to mention in the TAFs aside from vcsh. The best
chance for thunderstorms will be at ECG.

OUTLOOK...Dry weather is forecast tonight through Monday as high
pressure builds into the area from the north. There will be a
chance for thunderstorms on Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Generally quiet conditions across the marine area for the next few
days. The stationary front across nrn VA will slowly move south
across the waters through Friday. Meanwhile, low pressure will
develop along the front and move over the area. As such...south-
southwest winds tonight will gradually turn northeasterly by Friday
night across the waters. Do not expect significant strengthening of
the low and as such am thinking the winds over the coastal waters
will stay well below 20 kt and waves will stay in the 3-4 ft range.
The front remains stationary Saturday keeping NE winds across the
area. High pressure builds across the waters on Sunday before
another cold front approaches the area Monday Night into Tuesday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...MAS/LSA
MARINE...MRD




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240647
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
247 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary becomes stationary near the VA NC border
overnight...then remains there through Friday. High pressure
builds in from the north over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Frontal becoming stationary ovr far srn/SE VA attm. Earlier
strong convection has settled S into NC. Atmos stabilized has
and expecting rather widespread shras/isold tstms for
overnight...esp cntrl/srn VA into NE NC. Trended POPs gradually
down aft mdngt fm NW to SE. Lows in the u60s-l70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Models slower with taking the front into North Carolina Friday.
Enough moisture / instability available for chc pops most areas
Friday despite the high pressure building South. A wave of low
pressure along this boundary will likely enhance the convection
across southern zones after 18z. Have increased pops to likely there
with SPC keeping most areas south of I64 in SLGHT risk for severe
tstms. Severe threat will likely depend on location of the front
and points south of it. Threat will be damaging winds / large
hail. Temps tricky as a NE wind will likely keep coastal/beach
areas in the upr 70s-lwr 80s...mid-upr 80s west of the bay.

Chance pops continue Friday evening but taper off north to south
after midnight as high pressure to the north pushes the low and
assocated frontal boundary farther south. Lows in the mid 60s north
to lwr 70s se.

High pressure to the north dominates the wx across the fa thru the
weekend with the front stalling out off the Carolina coast. Dry and
cooler with highs both days 80-85 except 75-80 along the coast. Lows
in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sunday night looks to remain dry and mild as the upper ridge extends
into the Middle Atlantic ahead of the deep upper low over the
Canadian Prairies. Heights lower Monday as the upper low over the
nrn Great Lakes moves east. This may allow for showers and
thunderstorms to develop Monday afternoon due to lee side
troughiness and continue into Monday night as the cold front slowly
approaches. Will need to maintain chances for showers and
thunderstorms on Tuesday as the front moves through. Cooler and
dry for Wed and Thu with dry NW flow.

Highs will start out in the lower 90s on Monday into Tuesday, with
temperatures lowering to the mid-upper 80s on Wed/Thu.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Due to dry conditions in the low levels...mainly VFR conditions
are expected, with IFR stratus and fog possible early this morning
at SBY. Scattered showers/tstms can be expected as the frontal
boundary sinks slowly to the south but there is not enough
confidence to mention in the TAFs aside from vcsh. The best
chance for thunderstorms will be at ECG.

OUTLOOK...Dry weather is forecast tonight through Monday as high
pressure builds into the area from the north. There will be a
chance for thunderstorms on Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Generally quiet conditions across the marine area for the next few
days. The stationary front across nrn VA will slowly move south
across the waters through Friday. Meanwhile, low pressure will
develop along the front and move over the area. As such...south-
southwest winds tonight will gradually turn northeasterly by Friday
night across the waters. Do not expect significant strengthening of
the low and as such am thinking the winds over the coastal waters
will stay well below 20 kt and waves will stay in the 3-4 ft range.
The front remains stationary Saturday keeping NE winds across the
area. High pressure builds across the waters on Sunday before
another cold front approaches the area Monday Night into Tuesday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...MAS/LSA
MARINE...MRD




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240607 AAC
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
207 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SLowly drying conditions today with a warming trend as we head
through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
For the early part of the overnight period, will be slowly
evacuating pops from the southeastern ridge counties. Decided to
increase clouds across portions of the south, as what is left of
the cold front gets hung up in Northern West Virginia. Drier low
level air will try and push southward from Northern Pennsylvania
overnight but will have a tough time make much southward
progression due to the stalled boundary. It appears the 60+
dewpoints will get hung up just about halfway through my cwa. Will
also have to deal with fog, but it will be tricky, due to the
drier air to the north and cloud cover to the south. Temperatures
have been modified with a blend of hires guidance.

Stalled cold front over Northern West Virginia will be the focus
of any activity today. The front will lay dormant for much of the
morning hours, but it does appear to bulge northward over the
ridges during the afternoon. This should draw additional low
level moisture northward forcing the drier air to shift further to
the west. The will promote, at least, a modest increase in cloud
cover over portions of the south and also the inclusion of pops in
the ridges. With the low level flow near the boundary, moisture
should sweep up the ridge slopes, allowing for orographically
induced convection.

Temperatures will be close to normal, with more comfortable
humidity levels to the north.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
500mb ridge finally builds in on Saturday and will hold through
most of the weekend. This will mean an increase in sunshine,
temperatures and humidity. Temperatures Sunday will be pushing 90
degrees across much of the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Shower and thunderstorms chances return to the forecast Sunday
night as moisture pools ahead of the next front. Above normal
temperatures at the start of the period will become more
seasonable by Wednesday. Superblend guidance was used as a basis
for the grids.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A boundary representing lower dewpoint is in the general vicinity
of I-80 and will remain there through the night. This will result
in brief MVFR conditions at worst for FKL/DUJ with some light fog.
To the south, expecting IFR or worse conditions for the remainder
of the terminals in low clouds and fog. Slow improvement will
begin after sunrise, and the dewpoint boundary will begin to make
a renewed southward push once daytime mixing begins. Expecting VFR
conditions areawide by midday as fog lifts and a BKN-OVC cumulus
deck takes hold. Scattered showers and storms will pop up
southeast of Pittsburgh during the afternoon, but confidence is
too low for inclusion in LBE or MGW at this time. A VFR evening is
expected, with some fog possibly forming at least from PIT on
south starting around midnight.

.OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Potential exists for pre-dawn fog development Saturday morning.
Otherwise, the next chance for general restrictions is expected with
a Monday cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240542
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
142 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SLowly drying conditions today with a warming trend as we head
through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
For the early part of the overnight period, will be evacuating
pops from the southeastern ridge counties. Decided to increase
clouds across portions of the south, as what is left of the cold
front gets hung up in Northern West Virginia. Drier low level air
will try and push southward from Northern Pennsylvania overnight
but will have a tough time make much southward progression due to
the stalled boundary. It appears the 60+ dewpoints will get hung
up just about halfway through my cwa. Will also have to deal with
fog, but it will be tricky, due to the drier air to the north and
cloud cover to the south. Temperatures have been modified with a
blend of hires guidance.

Stalled cold front over Northern West Virginia will be the focus
of any activity today. The front will lay dormant for much of the
morning hours, but it does appear to bulge northward over the
ridges during the afternoon. This should draw additional low
level moisture northward forcing the drier air to shift further to
the west. The will promote, at least, a modest increase in cloud
cover over portions of the south and also the inclusion of pops in
the ridges. With the low level flow near the boundary, moisture
should sweep up the ridge slopes, allowing for orographically
induced convection.

Temperatures will be close to normal, with more comfortable
humidity levels to the north.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
500mb ridge finally builds in on Saturday and will hold through
most of the weekend. This will mean an increase in sunshine,
temperatures and humidity. Temperatures Sunday will be pushing 90
degrees across much of the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Shower and thunderstorms chances return to the forecast Sunday
night as moisture pools ahead of the next front. Above normal
temperatures at the start of the period will become more
seasonable by Wednesday. Superblend guidance was used as a basis
for the grids.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A boundary representing lower dewpoint is in the general vicinity
of I-80 and will remain there through the night. This will result
in brief MVFR conditions at worst for FKL/DUJ with some light fog.
To the south, expecting IFR or worse conditions for the remainder
of the terminals in low clouds and fog. Slow improvement will
begin after sunrise, and the dewpoint boundary will begin to make
a renewed southward push once daytime mixing begins. Expecting VFR
conditions areawide by midday as fog lifts and a BKN-OVC cumulus
deck takes hold. Scattered showers and storms will pop up
southeast of Pittsburgh during the afternoon, but confidence is
too low for inclusion in LBE or MGW at this time. A VFR evening is
expected, with some fog possibly forming at least from PIT on
south starting around midnight.

.OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Potential exists for pre-dawn fog development Saturday morning.
Otherwise, the next chance for general restrictions is expected with
a Monday cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




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