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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 301115
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
715 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING...THEN
CROSSES THE REGION AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE LOCAL AREA
LATER FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPR RIDGING RETROGRADES A BIT TODAY...AS A TROF MOVES ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLC REGION LATER
THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVENG. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT...CHC POPS (30-50%) FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN ACRS NNW
AREAS DURING THE AFTN INTO EARLY EVENG...LOWERING TO 14-20% ACRS
FAR SE VA/CSTL NE NC. A FEW TSTMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. PARTLY SUNNY WITH HI TEMPS IN THE LWR
90S...EXCEPT MID TO UPR 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACRS THE FA THIS EVENG/TNGT AND MOVES OFFSHR
FRI MORNG. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS (30-50%) MOST AREAS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THRU EARLY FRI MORNG. PCPN QUICKLY PUSHES
S/E BY LATE FRI MORNG...SO THAT MOST PLACES WILL BE DRY ON
FRI. DID MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS ACRS EXTRM SE AREAS INTO MIDDAY FRI.
OTHERWISE...HI PRES AND DRIER AIR BLDS INTO AND OVR THE REGION
DURING FRI. LO TEMPS TNGT IN THE UPR 60S NW TO THE MID 70S SE.
HI TEMPS ON FRI IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
HI PRES WILL REMAIN OVR THE AREA FOR FRI NGT AND SAT. DRY WX WITH
A MOSTLY CLEAR/MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HUMIDITY LEVELS START TO INCREASE
AGAIN ON SAT...DUE TO SFC WINDS FM THE SSW. LOWS FRI NGT IN THE
60S TO LWR 70S. HIGHS ON SAT IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SW
CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTING ACRS HUDSON BAY CANADA.
GFS/ECMWF INTO BETTER DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT...THEN FLATTEN
OUT SUN WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACRS THE MID ATLC BY MON.

FRONT STALLS AND DISSIPATES OVER FAR SRN VA/NC SAT NIGHT. BEST
CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH/MAINLY NE NC THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BUT EVEN HERE WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20-30% POPS/PRIMARILY
FOR THE AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME ON SUN/TAPERED TO 20% FAR SRN VA
AND DRY ELSEWHERE). WILL MAINTAIN 30-40% POPS NE NC FOR MON DUE
TO THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AS
THIS IS 5 DAYS OUT...POPS AROUND 20% NORTH. KEEPING POPS AROUND
20% ALL AREAS TUE. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE MID 80S/AROUND 90 F ALONG THE
COAST TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND. LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
MID 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 11Z...A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY THIS MORNING ACROSS AREA TAF
TERMINALS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. SSE WINDS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH MID MORNING AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY. EXPECT
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTN N/W OF KRIC...AND BY MID AFTN ACROSS COASTAL TERMINALS.
THERE IS A CHC FOR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
BEST CHCS ARE ACROSS NW SECTIONS, SO HAVE GONE WITH VICINITY
THUNDER AT RIC, VICINITY SHRA AT SBY. CHANCES A BIT LOWER, AND
LATER IN THE DAY OVER SE TERMINALS (PHF/ORF/ECG), SO HAVE KEPT OUT
FOR NOW. WILL RE- EVALUATE WITH 12Z TAFS. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
S/SW AT AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 15 TO 18
KNOTS PSBL.

OUTLOOK...A CHC FOR TSTMS CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY,
AND WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING. MAINLY
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHC FOR TSTMS
MAINLY SOUTH ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING.
HAVE NOTED WINDS TO ~15 KT ACROSS NORTHERN BAY ZONES...AS WINDS HAVE
NUDGED UPWARD EARLY TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHARPENING LEE TROUGH
WEST OF THE WATERS. A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
MORNING WILL PUSH TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...CROSSING
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE BECOMING STALLED
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY AFTN. WINDS TURN AROUND FROM THE
W-SW TODAY TO THE NNW BY LATE TONIGHT. NOT ANTICIPATING A STRONG
COOL SURGE ON FRI...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NNE BY MIDDAY
FRI...BECOMING ESE BY LATE IN THE DAY/FRI EVENING. WINDS THEN TURN
BACK TO THE SSW FOR FRI NGT AND SAT...AS THE FRONT WEAKENS JUST TO
OUR SSE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. WINDS REMAIN SSW SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC, AS IT BECOMES DOMINANT WX FEATURE. WAVES 1-2
FT/SEAS 2-4 FT. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT IN THE BAY...BUILDING TO
2-3 FT THIS EVENG. SEAS 2-3 FT EARLY...BUILDING TO 3-4 FT LATE,
HIGHEST OUTER WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SLY CHANNELING HAS RESULTED IN SOME NUISANCE-TYPE TIDAL ANOMALIES
ON THE ORDER OF A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL AT
BISHOPS HEAD. WATER LEVELS LOOK TO APPROACH, BUT JUST FALL SHORT
OF MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS WITH ASTRONOMICALLY HIGHER TIDE CYCLE
LATE TONIGHT...JUST BEFORE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 301115
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
715 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING...THEN
CROSSES THE REGION AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE LOCAL AREA
LATER FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPR RIDGING RETROGRADES A BIT TODAY...AS A TROF MOVES ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLC REGION LATER
THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVENG. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT...CHC POPS (30-50%) FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN ACRS NNW
AREAS DURING THE AFTN INTO EARLY EVENG...LOWERING TO 14-20% ACRS
FAR SE VA/CSTL NE NC. A FEW TSTMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. PARTLY SUNNY WITH HI TEMPS IN THE LWR
90S...EXCEPT MID TO UPR 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACRS THE FA THIS EVENG/TNGT AND MOVES OFFSHR
FRI MORNG. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS (30-50%) MOST AREAS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THRU EARLY FRI MORNG. PCPN QUICKLY PUSHES
S/E BY LATE FRI MORNG...SO THAT MOST PLACES WILL BE DRY ON
FRI. DID MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS ACRS EXTRM SE AREAS INTO MIDDAY FRI.
OTHERWISE...HI PRES AND DRIER AIR BLDS INTO AND OVR THE REGION
DURING FRI. LO TEMPS TNGT IN THE UPR 60S NW TO THE MID 70S SE.
HI TEMPS ON FRI IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
HI PRES WILL REMAIN OVR THE AREA FOR FRI NGT AND SAT. DRY WX WITH
A MOSTLY CLEAR/MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HUMIDITY LEVELS START TO INCREASE
AGAIN ON SAT...DUE TO SFC WINDS FM THE SSW. LOWS FRI NGT IN THE
60S TO LWR 70S. HIGHS ON SAT IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SW
CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTING ACRS HUDSON BAY CANADA.
GFS/ECMWF INTO BETTER DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT...THEN FLATTEN
OUT SUN WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACRS THE MID ATLC BY MON.

FRONT STALLS AND DISSIPATES OVER FAR SRN VA/NC SAT NIGHT. BEST
CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH/MAINLY NE NC THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BUT EVEN HERE WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20-30% POPS/PRIMARILY
FOR THE AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME ON SUN/TAPERED TO 20% FAR SRN VA
AND DRY ELSEWHERE). WILL MAINTAIN 30-40% POPS NE NC FOR MON DUE
TO THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AS
THIS IS 5 DAYS OUT...POPS AROUND 20% NORTH. KEEPING POPS AROUND
20% ALL AREAS TUE. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE MID 80S/AROUND 90 F ALONG THE
COAST TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND. LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
MID 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 11Z...A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY THIS MORNING ACROSS AREA TAF
TERMINALS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. SSE WINDS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH MID MORNING AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY. EXPECT
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTN N/W OF KRIC...AND BY MID AFTN ACROSS COASTAL TERMINALS.
THERE IS A CHC FOR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
BEST CHCS ARE ACROSS NW SECTIONS, SO HAVE GONE WITH VICINITY
THUNDER AT RIC, VICINITY SHRA AT SBY. CHANCES A BIT LOWER, AND
LATER IN THE DAY OVER SE TERMINALS (PHF/ORF/ECG), SO HAVE KEPT OUT
FOR NOW. WILL RE- EVALUATE WITH 12Z TAFS. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
S/SW AT AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 15 TO 18
KNOTS PSBL.

OUTLOOK...A CHC FOR TSTMS CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY,
AND WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING. MAINLY
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHC FOR TSTMS
MAINLY SOUTH ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING.
HAVE NOTED WINDS TO ~15 KT ACROSS NORTHERN BAY ZONES...AS WINDS HAVE
NUDGED UPWARD EARLY TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHARPENING LEE TROUGH
WEST OF THE WATERS. A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
MORNING WILL PUSH TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...CROSSING
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE BECOMING STALLED
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY AFTN. WINDS TURN AROUND FROM THE
W-SW TODAY TO THE NNW BY LATE TONIGHT. NOT ANTICIPATING A STRONG
COOL SURGE ON FRI...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NNE BY MIDDAY
FRI...BECOMING ESE BY LATE IN THE DAY/FRI EVENING. WINDS THEN TURN
BACK TO THE SSW FOR FRI NGT AND SAT...AS THE FRONT WEAKENS JUST TO
OUR SSE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. WINDS REMAIN SSW SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC, AS IT BECOMES DOMINANT WX FEATURE. WAVES 1-2
FT/SEAS 2-4 FT. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT IN THE BAY...BUILDING TO
2-3 FT THIS EVENG. SEAS 2-3 FT EARLY...BUILDING TO 3-4 FT LATE,
HIGHEST OUTER WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SLY CHANNELING HAS RESULTED IN SOME NUISANCE-TYPE TIDAL ANOMALIES
ON THE ORDER OF A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL AT
BISHOPS HEAD. WATER LEVELS LOOK TO APPROACH, BUT JUST FALL SHORT
OF MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS WITH ASTRONOMICALLY HIGHER TIDE CYCLE
LATE TONIGHT...JUST BEFORE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 301115
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
715 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING...THEN
CROSSES THE REGION AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE LOCAL AREA
LATER FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPR RIDGING RETROGRADES A BIT TODAY...AS A TROF MOVES ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLC REGION LATER
THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVENG. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT...CHC POPS (30-50%) FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN ACRS NNW
AREAS DURING THE AFTN INTO EARLY EVENG...LOWERING TO 14-20% ACRS
FAR SE VA/CSTL NE NC. A FEW TSTMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. PARTLY SUNNY WITH HI TEMPS IN THE LWR
90S...EXCEPT MID TO UPR 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACRS THE FA THIS EVENG/TNGT AND MOVES OFFSHR
FRI MORNG. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS (30-50%) MOST AREAS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THRU EARLY FRI MORNG. PCPN QUICKLY PUSHES
S/E BY LATE FRI MORNG...SO THAT MOST PLACES WILL BE DRY ON
FRI. DID MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS ACRS EXTRM SE AREAS INTO MIDDAY FRI.
OTHERWISE...HI PRES AND DRIER AIR BLDS INTO AND OVR THE REGION
DURING FRI. LO TEMPS TNGT IN THE UPR 60S NW TO THE MID 70S SE.
HI TEMPS ON FRI IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
HI PRES WILL REMAIN OVR THE AREA FOR FRI NGT AND SAT. DRY WX WITH
A MOSTLY CLEAR/MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HUMIDITY LEVELS START TO INCREASE
AGAIN ON SAT...DUE TO SFC WINDS FM THE SSW. LOWS FRI NGT IN THE
60S TO LWR 70S. HIGHS ON SAT IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SW
CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTING ACRS HUDSON BAY CANADA.
GFS/ECMWF INTO BETTER DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT...THEN FLATTEN
OUT SUN WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACRS THE MID ATLC BY MON.

FRONT STALLS AND DISSIPATES OVER FAR SRN VA/NC SAT NIGHT. BEST
CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH/MAINLY NE NC THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BUT EVEN HERE WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20-30% POPS/PRIMARILY
FOR THE AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME ON SUN/TAPERED TO 20% FAR SRN VA
AND DRY ELSEWHERE). WILL MAINTAIN 30-40% POPS NE NC FOR MON DUE
TO THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AS
THIS IS 5 DAYS OUT...POPS AROUND 20% NORTH. KEEPING POPS AROUND
20% ALL AREAS TUE. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE MID 80S/AROUND 90 F ALONG THE
COAST TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND. LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
MID 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 11Z...A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY THIS MORNING ACROSS AREA TAF
TERMINALS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. SSE WINDS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH MID MORNING AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY. EXPECT
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTN N/W OF KRIC...AND BY MID AFTN ACROSS COASTAL TERMINALS.
THERE IS A CHC FOR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
BEST CHCS ARE ACROSS NW SECTIONS, SO HAVE GONE WITH VICINITY
THUNDER AT RIC, VICINITY SHRA AT SBY. CHANCES A BIT LOWER, AND
LATER IN THE DAY OVER SE TERMINALS (PHF/ORF/ECG), SO HAVE KEPT OUT
FOR NOW. WILL RE- EVALUATE WITH 12Z TAFS. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
S/SW AT AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 15 TO 18
KNOTS PSBL.

OUTLOOK...A CHC FOR TSTMS CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY,
AND WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING. MAINLY
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHC FOR TSTMS
MAINLY SOUTH ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING.
HAVE NOTED WINDS TO ~15 KT ACROSS NORTHERN BAY ZONES...AS WINDS HAVE
NUDGED UPWARD EARLY TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHARPENING LEE TROUGH
WEST OF THE WATERS. A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
MORNING WILL PUSH TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...CROSSING
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE BECOMING STALLED
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY AFTN. WINDS TURN AROUND FROM THE
W-SW TODAY TO THE NNW BY LATE TONIGHT. NOT ANTICIPATING A STRONG
COOL SURGE ON FRI...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NNE BY MIDDAY
FRI...BECOMING ESE BY LATE IN THE DAY/FRI EVENING. WINDS THEN TURN
BACK TO THE SSW FOR FRI NGT AND SAT...AS THE FRONT WEAKENS JUST TO
OUR SSE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. WINDS REMAIN SSW SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC, AS IT BECOMES DOMINANT WX FEATURE. WAVES 1-2
FT/SEAS 2-4 FT. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT IN THE BAY...BUILDING TO
2-3 FT THIS EVENG. SEAS 2-3 FT EARLY...BUILDING TO 3-4 FT LATE,
HIGHEST OUTER WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SLY CHANNELING HAS RESULTED IN SOME NUISANCE-TYPE TIDAL ANOMALIES
ON THE ORDER OF A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL AT
BISHOPS HEAD. WATER LEVELS LOOK TO APPROACH, BUT JUST FALL SHORT
OF MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS WITH ASTRONOMICALLY HIGHER TIDE CYCLE
LATE TONIGHT...JUST BEFORE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 301106
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
706 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING...THEN
CROSSES THE REGION AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE LOCAL AREA
LATER FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPR RIDGING RETROGRADES A BIT TODAY...AS A TROF MOVES ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLC REGION LATER
THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVENG. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT...CHC POPS (30-50%) FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN ACRS NNW
AREAS DURING THE AFTN INTO EARLY EVENG...LOWERING TO 14-20% ACRS
FAR SE VA/CSTL NE NC. A FEW TSTMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. PARTLY SUNNY WITH HI TEMPS IN THE LWR
90S...EXCEPT MID TO UPR 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACRS THE FA THIS EVENG/TNGT AND MOVES OFFSHR
FRI MORNG. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS (30-50%) MOST AREAS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THRU EARLY FRI MORNG. PCPN QUICKLY PUSHES
S/E BY LATE FRI MORNG...SO THAT MOST PLACES WILL BE DRY ON
FRI. DID MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS ACRS EXTRM SE AREAS INTO MIDDAY FRI.
OTHERWISE...HI PRES AND DRIER AIR BLDS INTO AND OVR THE REGION
DURING FRI. LO TEMPS TNGT IN THE UPR 60S NW TO THE MID 70S SE.
HI TEMPS ON FRI IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
HI PRES WILL REMAIN OVR THE AREA FOR FRI NGT AND SAT. DRY WX WITH
A MOSTLY CLEAR/MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HUMIDITY LEVELS START TO INCREASE
AGAIN ON SAT...DUE TO SFC WINDS FM THE SSW. LOWS FRI NGT IN THE
60S TO LWR 70S. HIGHS ON SAT IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SW
CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTING ACRS HUDSON BAY CANADA.
GFS/ECMWF INTO BETTER DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT...THEN FLATTEN
OUT SUN WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACRS THE MID ATLC BY MON.

FRONT STALLS AND DISSIPATES OVER FAR SRN VA/NC SAT NIGHT. BEST
CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH/MAINLY NE NC THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BUT EVEN HERE WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20-30% POPS/PRIMARILY
FOR THE AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME ON SUN/TAPERED TO 20% FAR SRN VA
AND DRY ELSEWHERE). WILL MAINTAIN 30-40% POPS NE NC FOR MON DUE
TO THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AS
THIS IS 5 DAYS OUT...POPS AROUND 20% NORTH. KEEPING POPS AROUND
20% ALL AREAS TUE. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE MID 80S/AROUND 90 F ALONG THE
COAST TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND. LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
MID 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 11Z...A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY THIS MORNING ACROSS AREA TAF
TERMINALS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. SSE WINDS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH MID MORNING AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY. EXPECT
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTN N/W OF KRIC...AND BY MID AFTN ACROSS COASTAL TERMINALS.
THERE IS A CHC FOR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
BEST CHCS ARE ACROSS NW SECTIONS, SO HAVE GONE WITH VICINITY
THUNDER AT RIC, VICINITY SHRA AT SBY. CHANCES A BIT LOWER, AND
LATER IN THE DAY OVER SE TERMINALS (PHF/ORF/ECG), SO HAVE KEPT OUT
FOR NOW. WILL RE- EVALUATE WITH 12Z TAFS. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
S/SW AT AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 15 TO 18
KNOTS PSBL.

OUTLOOK...A CHC FOR TSTMS CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY,
AND WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING. MAINLY
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHC FOR TSTMS
MAINLY SOUTH ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING.
HAVE NOTED WINDS TO ~15 KT ACROSS NORTHERN BAY ZONES...AS WINDS HAVE
NUDGED UPWARD EARLY TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHARPENING LEE TROUGH
WEST OF THE WATERS. A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
MORNING WILL PUSH TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...CROSSING
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE BECOMING STALLED
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY AFTN. WINDS TURN AROUND FROM THE
W-SW TODAY TO THE NNW BY LATE TONIGHT. NOT ANTICIPATING A STRONG
COOL SURGE ON FRI...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NNE BY MIDDAY
FRI...BECOMING ESE BY LATE IN THE DAY/FRI EVENING. WINDS THEN TURN
BACK TO THE SSW FOR FRI NGT AND SAT...AS THE FRONT WEAKENS JUST TO
OUR SSE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. WINDS REMAIN SSW SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC, AS IT BECOMES DOMINANT WX FEATURE. WAVES 1-2
FT/SEAS 2-4 FT. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT IN THE BAY...BUILDING TO
2-3 FT THIS EVENG. SEAS 2-3 FT EARLY...BUILDING TO 3-4 FT LATE,
HIGHEST OUTER WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 301106
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
706 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING...THEN
CROSSES THE REGION AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE LOCAL AREA
LATER FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPR RIDGING RETROGRADES A BIT TODAY...AS A TROF MOVES ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLC REGION LATER
THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVENG. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT...CHC POPS (30-50%) FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN ACRS NNW
AREAS DURING THE AFTN INTO EARLY EVENG...LOWERING TO 14-20% ACRS
FAR SE VA/CSTL NE NC. A FEW TSTMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. PARTLY SUNNY WITH HI TEMPS IN THE LWR
90S...EXCEPT MID TO UPR 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACRS THE FA THIS EVENG/TNGT AND MOVES OFFSHR
FRI MORNG. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS (30-50%) MOST AREAS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THRU EARLY FRI MORNG. PCPN QUICKLY PUSHES
S/E BY LATE FRI MORNG...SO THAT MOST PLACES WILL BE DRY ON
FRI. DID MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS ACRS EXTRM SE AREAS INTO MIDDAY FRI.
OTHERWISE...HI PRES AND DRIER AIR BLDS INTO AND OVR THE REGION
DURING FRI. LO TEMPS TNGT IN THE UPR 60S NW TO THE MID 70S SE.
HI TEMPS ON FRI IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
HI PRES WILL REMAIN OVR THE AREA FOR FRI NGT AND SAT. DRY WX WITH
A MOSTLY CLEAR/MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HUMIDITY LEVELS START TO INCREASE
AGAIN ON SAT...DUE TO SFC WINDS FM THE SSW. LOWS FRI NGT IN THE
60S TO LWR 70S. HIGHS ON SAT IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SW
CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTING ACRS HUDSON BAY CANADA.
GFS/ECMWF INTO BETTER DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT...THEN FLATTEN
OUT SUN WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACRS THE MID ATLC BY MON.

FRONT STALLS AND DISSIPATES OVER FAR SRN VA/NC SAT NIGHT. BEST
CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH/MAINLY NE NC THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BUT EVEN HERE WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20-30% POPS/PRIMARILY
FOR THE AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME ON SUN/TAPERED TO 20% FAR SRN VA
AND DRY ELSEWHERE). WILL MAINTAIN 30-40% POPS NE NC FOR MON DUE
TO THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AS
THIS IS 5 DAYS OUT...POPS AROUND 20% NORTH. KEEPING POPS AROUND
20% ALL AREAS TUE. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE MID 80S/AROUND 90 F ALONG THE
COAST TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND. LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
MID 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 11Z...A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY THIS MORNING ACROSS AREA TAF
TERMINALS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. SSE WINDS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH MID MORNING AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY. EXPECT
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTN N/W OF KRIC...AND BY MID AFTN ACROSS COASTAL TERMINALS.
THERE IS A CHC FOR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
BEST CHCS ARE ACROSS NW SECTIONS, SO HAVE GONE WITH VICINITY
THUNDER AT RIC, VICINITY SHRA AT SBY. CHANCES A BIT LOWER, AND
LATER IN THE DAY OVER SE TERMINALS (PHF/ORF/ECG), SO HAVE KEPT OUT
FOR NOW. WILL RE- EVALUATE WITH 12Z TAFS. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
S/SW AT AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 15 TO 18
KNOTS PSBL.

OUTLOOK...A CHC FOR TSTMS CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY,
AND WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING. MAINLY
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHC FOR TSTMS
MAINLY SOUTH ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING.
HAVE NOTED WINDS TO ~15 KT ACROSS NORTHERN BAY ZONES...AS WINDS HAVE
NUDGED UPWARD EARLY TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHARPENING LEE TROUGH
WEST OF THE WATERS. A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
MORNING WILL PUSH TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...CROSSING
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE BECOMING STALLED
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY AFTN. WINDS TURN AROUND FROM THE
W-SW TODAY TO THE NNW BY LATE TONIGHT. NOT ANTICIPATING A STRONG
COOL SURGE ON FRI...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NNE BY MIDDAY
FRI...BECOMING ESE BY LATE IN THE DAY/FRI EVENING. WINDS THEN TURN
BACK TO THE SSW FOR FRI NGT AND SAT...AS THE FRONT WEAKENS JUST TO
OUR SSE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. WINDS REMAIN SSW SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC, AS IT BECOMES DOMINANT WX FEATURE. WAVES 1-2
FT/SEAS 2-4 FT. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT IN THE BAY...BUILDING TO
2-3 FT THIS EVENG. SEAS 2-3 FT EARLY...BUILDING TO 3-4 FT LATE,
HIGHEST OUTER WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 301106
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
706 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING...THEN
CROSSES THE REGION AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE LOCAL AREA
LATER FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPR RIDGING RETROGRADES A BIT TODAY...AS A TROF MOVES ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLC REGION LATER
THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVENG. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT...CHC POPS (30-50%) FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN ACRS NNW
AREAS DURING THE AFTN INTO EARLY EVENG...LOWERING TO 14-20% ACRS
FAR SE VA/CSTL NE NC. A FEW TSTMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. PARTLY SUNNY WITH HI TEMPS IN THE LWR
90S...EXCEPT MID TO UPR 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACRS THE FA THIS EVENG/TNGT AND MOVES OFFSHR
FRI MORNG. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS (30-50%) MOST AREAS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THRU EARLY FRI MORNG. PCPN QUICKLY PUSHES
S/E BY LATE FRI MORNG...SO THAT MOST PLACES WILL BE DRY ON
FRI. DID MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS ACRS EXTRM SE AREAS INTO MIDDAY FRI.
OTHERWISE...HI PRES AND DRIER AIR BLDS INTO AND OVR THE REGION
DURING FRI. LO TEMPS TNGT IN THE UPR 60S NW TO THE MID 70S SE.
HI TEMPS ON FRI IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
HI PRES WILL REMAIN OVR THE AREA FOR FRI NGT AND SAT. DRY WX WITH
A MOSTLY CLEAR/MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HUMIDITY LEVELS START TO INCREASE
AGAIN ON SAT...DUE TO SFC WINDS FM THE SSW. LOWS FRI NGT IN THE
60S TO LWR 70S. HIGHS ON SAT IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SW
CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTING ACRS HUDSON BAY CANADA.
GFS/ECMWF INTO BETTER DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT...THEN FLATTEN
OUT SUN WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACRS THE MID ATLC BY MON.

FRONT STALLS AND DISSIPATES OVER FAR SRN VA/NC SAT NIGHT. BEST
CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH/MAINLY NE NC THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BUT EVEN HERE WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20-30% POPS/PRIMARILY
FOR THE AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME ON SUN/TAPERED TO 20% FAR SRN VA
AND DRY ELSEWHERE). WILL MAINTAIN 30-40% POPS NE NC FOR MON DUE
TO THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AS
THIS IS 5 DAYS OUT...POPS AROUND 20% NORTH. KEEPING POPS AROUND
20% ALL AREAS TUE. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE MID 80S/AROUND 90 F ALONG THE
COAST TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND. LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
MID 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 11Z...A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY THIS MORNING ACROSS AREA TAF
TERMINALS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. SSE WINDS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH MID MORNING AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY. EXPECT
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTN N/W OF KRIC...AND BY MID AFTN ACROSS COASTAL TERMINALS.
THERE IS A CHC FOR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
BEST CHCS ARE ACROSS NW SECTIONS, SO HAVE GONE WITH VICINITY
THUNDER AT RIC, VICINITY SHRA AT SBY. CHANCES A BIT LOWER, AND
LATER IN THE DAY OVER SE TERMINALS (PHF/ORF/ECG), SO HAVE KEPT OUT
FOR NOW. WILL RE- EVALUATE WITH 12Z TAFS. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
S/SW AT AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 15 TO 18
KNOTS PSBL.

OUTLOOK...A CHC FOR TSTMS CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY,
AND WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING. MAINLY
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHC FOR TSTMS
MAINLY SOUTH ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING.
HAVE NOTED WINDS TO ~15 KT ACROSS NORTHERN BAY ZONES...AS WINDS HAVE
NUDGED UPWARD EARLY TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHARPENING LEE TROUGH
WEST OF THE WATERS. A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
MORNING WILL PUSH TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...CROSSING
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE BECOMING STALLED
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY AFTN. WINDS TURN AROUND FROM THE
W-SW TODAY TO THE NNW BY LATE TONIGHT. NOT ANTICIPATING A STRONG
COOL SURGE ON FRI...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NNE BY MIDDAY
FRI...BECOMING ESE BY LATE IN THE DAY/FRI EVENING. WINDS THEN TURN
BACK TO THE SSW FOR FRI NGT AND SAT...AS THE FRONT WEAKENS JUST TO
OUR SSE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. WINDS REMAIN SSW SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC, AS IT BECOMES DOMINANT WX FEATURE. WAVES 1-2
FT/SEAS 2-4 FT. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT IN THE BAY...BUILDING TO
2-3 FT THIS EVENG. SEAS 2-3 FT EARLY...BUILDING TO 3-4 FT LATE,
HIGHEST OUTER WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 301106
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
706 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING...THEN
CROSSES THE REGION AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE LOCAL AREA
LATER FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPR RIDGING RETROGRADES A BIT TODAY...AS A TROF MOVES ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLC REGION LATER
THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVENG. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT...CHC POPS (30-50%) FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN ACRS NNW
AREAS DURING THE AFTN INTO EARLY EVENG...LOWERING TO 14-20% ACRS
FAR SE VA/CSTL NE NC. A FEW TSTMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. PARTLY SUNNY WITH HI TEMPS IN THE LWR
90S...EXCEPT MID TO UPR 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACRS THE FA THIS EVENG/TNGT AND MOVES OFFSHR
FRI MORNG. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS (30-50%) MOST AREAS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THRU EARLY FRI MORNG. PCPN QUICKLY PUSHES
S/E BY LATE FRI MORNG...SO THAT MOST PLACES WILL BE DRY ON
FRI. DID MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS ACRS EXTRM SE AREAS INTO MIDDAY FRI.
OTHERWISE...HI PRES AND DRIER AIR BLDS INTO AND OVR THE REGION
DURING FRI. LO TEMPS TNGT IN THE UPR 60S NW TO THE MID 70S SE.
HI TEMPS ON FRI IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
HI PRES WILL REMAIN OVR THE AREA FOR FRI NGT AND SAT. DRY WX WITH
A MOSTLY CLEAR/MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HUMIDITY LEVELS START TO INCREASE
AGAIN ON SAT...DUE TO SFC WINDS FM THE SSW. LOWS FRI NGT IN THE
60S TO LWR 70S. HIGHS ON SAT IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SW
CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTING ACRS HUDSON BAY CANADA.
GFS/ECMWF INTO BETTER DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT...THEN FLATTEN
OUT SUN WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACRS THE MID ATLC BY MON.

FRONT STALLS AND DISSIPATES OVER FAR SRN VA/NC SAT NIGHT. BEST
CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH/MAINLY NE NC THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BUT EVEN HERE WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20-30% POPS/PRIMARILY
FOR THE AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME ON SUN/TAPERED TO 20% FAR SRN VA
AND DRY ELSEWHERE). WILL MAINTAIN 30-40% POPS NE NC FOR MON DUE
TO THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AS
THIS IS 5 DAYS OUT...POPS AROUND 20% NORTH. KEEPING POPS AROUND
20% ALL AREAS TUE. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE MID 80S/AROUND 90 F ALONG THE
COAST TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND. LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
MID 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 11Z...A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY THIS MORNING ACROSS AREA TAF
TERMINALS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. SSE WINDS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH MID MORNING AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY. EXPECT
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTN N/W OF KRIC...AND BY MID AFTN ACROSS COASTAL TERMINALS.
THERE IS A CHC FOR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
BEST CHCS ARE ACROSS NW SECTIONS, SO HAVE GONE WITH VICINITY
THUNDER AT RIC, VICINITY SHRA AT SBY. CHANCES A BIT LOWER, AND
LATER IN THE DAY OVER SE TERMINALS (PHF/ORF/ECG), SO HAVE KEPT OUT
FOR NOW. WILL RE- EVALUATE WITH 12Z TAFS. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
S/SW AT AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 15 TO 18
KNOTS PSBL.

OUTLOOK...A CHC FOR TSTMS CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY,
AND WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING. MAINLY
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHC FOR TSTMS
MAINLY SOUTH ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING.
HAVE NOTED WINDS TO ~15 KT ACROSS NORTHERN BAY ZONES...AS WINDS HAVE
NUDGED UPWARD EARLY TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHARPENING LEE TROUGH
WEST OF THE WATERS. A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
MORNING WILL PUSH TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...CROSSING
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE BECOMING STALLED
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY AFTN. WINDS TURN AROUND FROM THE
W-SW TODAY TO THE NNW BY LATE TONIGHT. NOT ANTICIPATING A STRONG
COOL SURGE ON FRI...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NNE BY MIDDAY
FRI...BECOMING ESE BY LATE IN THE DAY/FRI EVENING. WINDS THEN TURN
BACK TO THE SSW FOR FRI NGT AND SAT...AS THE FRONT WEAKENS JUST TO
OUR SSE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. WINDS REMAIN SSW SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC, AS IT BECOMES DOMINANT WX FEATURE. WAVES 1-2
FT/SEAS 2-4 FT. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT IN THE BAY...BUILDING TO
2-3 FT THIS EVENG. SEAS 2-3 FT EARLY...BUILDING TO 3-4 FT LATE,
HIGHEST OUTER WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 301106
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
706 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING...THEN
CROSSES THE REGION AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE LOCAL AREA
LATER FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPR RIDGING RETROGRADES A BIT TODAY...AS A TROF MOVES ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLC REGION LATER
THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVENG. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT...CHC POPS (30-50%) FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN ACRS NNW
AREAS DURING THE AFTN INTO EARLY EVENG...LOWERING TO 14-20% ACRS
FAR SE VA/CSTL NE NC. A FEW TSTMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. PARTLY SUNNY WITH HI TEMPS IN THE LWR
90S...EXCEPT MID TO UPR 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACRS THE FA THIS EVENG/TNGT AND MOVES OFFSHR
FRI MORNG. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS (30-50%) MOST AREAS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THRU EARLY FRI MORNG. PCPN QUICKLY PUSHES
S/E BY LATE FRI MORNG...SO THAT MOST PLACES WILL BE DRY ON
FRI. DID MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS ACRS EXTRM SE AREAS INTO MIDDAY FRI.
OTHERWISE...HI PRES AND DRIER AIR BLDS INTO AND OVR THE REGION
DURING FRI. LO TEMPS TNGT IN THE UPR 60S NW TO THE MID 70S SE.
HI TEMPS ON FRI IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
HI PRES WILL REMAIN OVR THE AREA FOR FRI NGT AND SAT. DRY WX WITH
A MOSTLY CLEAR/MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HUMIDITY LEVELS START TO INCREASE
AGAIN ON SAT...DUE TO SFC WINDS FM THE SSW. LOWS FRI NGT IN THE
60S TO LWR 70S. HIGHS ON SAT IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SW
CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTING ACRS HUDSON BAY CANADA.
GFS/ECMWF INTO BETTER DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT...THEN FLATTEN
OUT SUN WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACRS THE MID ATLC BY MON.

FRONT STALLS AND DISSIPATES OVER FAR SRN VA/NC SAT NIGHT. BEST
CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH/MAINLY NE NC THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BUT EVEN HERE WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20-30% POPS/PRIMARILY
FOR THE AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME ON SUN/TAPERED TO 20% FAR SRN VA
AND DRY ELSEWHERE). WILL MAINTAIN 30-40% POPS NE NC FOR MON DUE
TO THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AS
THIS IS 5 DAYS OUT...POPS AROUND 20% NORTH. KEEPING POPS AROUND
20% ALL AREAS TUE. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE MID 80S/AROUND 90 F ALONG THE
COAST TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND. LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
MID 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 11Z...A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY THIS MORNING ACROSS AREA TAF
TERMINALS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. SSE WINDS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH MID MORNING AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY. EXPECT
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTN N/W OF KRIC...AND BY MID AFTN ACROSS COASTAL TERMINALS.
THERE IS A CHC FOR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
BEST CHCS ARE ACROSS NW SECTIONS, SO HAVE GONE WITH VICINITY
THUNDER AT RIC, VICINITY SHRA AT SBY. CHANCES A BIT LOWER, AND
LATER IN THE DAY OVER SE TERMINALS (PHF/ORF/ECG), SO HAVE KEPT OUT
FOR NOW. WILL RE- EVALUATE WITH 12Z TAFS. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
S/SW AT AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 15 TO 18
KNOTS PSBL.

OUTLOOK...A CHC FOR TSTMS CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY,
AND WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING. MAINLY
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHC FOR TSTMS
MAINLY SOUTH ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING.
HAVE NOTED WINDS TO ~15 KT ACROSS NORTHERN BAY ZONES...AS WINDS HAVE
NUDGED UPWARD EARLY TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHARPENING LEE TROUGH
WEST OF THE WATERS. A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
MORNING WILL PUSH TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...CROSSING
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE BECOMING STALLED
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY AFTN. WINDS TURN AROUND FROM THE
W-SW TODAY TO THE NNW BY LATE TONIGHT. NOT ANTICIPATING A STRONG
COOL SURGE ON FRI...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NNE BY MIDDAY
FRI...BECOMING ESE BY LATE IN THE DAY/FRI EVENING. WINDS THEN TURN
BACK TO THE SSW FOR FRI NGT AND SAT...AS THE FRONT WEAKENS JUST TO
OUR SSE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. WINDS REMAIN SSW SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC, AS IT BECOMES DOMINANT WX FEATURE. WAVES 1-2
FT/SEAS 2-4 FT. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT IN THE BAY...BUILDING TO
2-3 FT THIS EVENG. SEAS 2-3 FT EARLY...BUILDING TO 3-4 FT LATE,
HIGHEST OUTER WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 301106
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
706 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING...THEN
CROSSES THE REGION AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE LOCAL AREA
LATER FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPR RIDGING RETROGRADES A BIT TODAY...AS A TROF MOVES ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLC REGION LATER
THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVENG. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT...CHC POPS (30-50%) FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN ACRS NNW
AREAS DURING THE AFTN INTO EARLY EVENG...LOWERING TO 14-20% ACRS
FAR SE VA/CSTL NE NC. A FEW TSTMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. PARTLY SUNNY WITH HI TEMPS IN THE LWR
90S...EXCEPT MID TO UPR 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACRS THE FA THIS EVENG/TNGT AND MOVES OFFSHR
FRI MORNG. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS (30-50%) MOST AREAS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THRU EARLY FRI MORNG. PCPN QUICKLY PUSHES
S/E BY LATE FRI MORNG...SO THAT MOST PLACES WILL BE DRY ON
FRI. DID MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS ACRS EXTRM SE AREAS INTO MIDDAY FRI.
OTHERWISE...HI PRES AND DRIER AIR BLDS INTO AND OVR THE REGION
DURING FRI. LO TEMPS TNGT IN THE UPR 60S NW TO THE MID 70S SE.
HI TEMPS ON FRI IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
HI PRES WILL REMAIN OVR THE AREA FOR FRI NGT AND SAT. DRY WX WITH
A MOSTLY CLEAR/MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HUMIDITY LEVELS START TO INCREASE
AGAIN ON SAT...DUE TO SFC WINDS FM THE SSW. LOWS FRI NGT IN THE
60S TO LWR 70S. HIGHS ON SAT IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SW
CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTING ACRS HUDSON BAY CANADA.
GFS/ECMWF INTO BETTER DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT...THEN FLATTEN
OUT SUN WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACRS THE MID ATLC BY MON.

FRONT STALLS AND DISSIPATES OVER FAR SRN VA/NC SAT NIGHT. BEST
CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH/MAINLY NE NC THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BUT EVEN HERE WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20-30% POPS/PRIMARILY
FOR THE AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME ON SUN/TAPERED TO 20% FAR SRN VA
AND DRY ELSEWHERE). WILL MAINTAIN 30-40% POPS NE NC FOR MON DUE
TO THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AS
THIS IS 5 DAYS OUT...POPS AROUND 20% NORTH. KEEPING POPS AROUND
20% ALL AREAS TUE. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE MID 80S/AROUND 90 F ALONG THE
COAST TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND. LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
MID 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 11Z...A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY THIS MORNING ACROSS AREA TAF
TERMINALS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. SSE WINDS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH MID MORNING AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY. EXPECT
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTN N/W OF KRIC...AND BY MID AFTN ACROSS COASTAL TERMINALS.
THERE IS A CHC FOR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
BEST CHCS ARE ACROSS NW SECTIONS, SO HAVE GONE WITH VICINITY
THUNDER AT RIC, VICINITY SHRA AT SBY. CHANCES A BIT LOWER, AND
LATER IN THE DAY OVER SE TERMINALS (PHF/ORF/ECG), SO HAVE KEPT OUT
FOR NOW. WILL RE- EVALUATE WITH 12Z TAFS. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
S/SW AT AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 15 TO 18
KNOTS PSBL.

OUTLOOK...A CHC FOR TSTMS CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY,
AND WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING. MAINLY
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHC FOR TSTMS
MAINLY SOUTH ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING.
HAVE NOTED WINDS TO ~15 KT ACROSS NORTHERN BAY ZONES...AS WINDS HAVE
NUDGED UPWARD EARLY TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHARPENING LEE TROUGH
WEST OF THE WATERS. A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
MORNING WILL PUSH TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...CROSSING
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE BECOMING STALLED
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY AFTN. WINDS TURN AROUND FROM THE
W-SW TODAY TO THE NNW BY LATE TONIGHT. NOT ANTICIPATING A STRONG
COOL SURGE ON FRI...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NNE BY MIDDAY
FRI...BECOMING ESE BY LATE IN THE DAY/FRI EVENING. WINDS THEN TURN
BACK TO THE SSW FOR FRI NGT AND SAT...AS THE FRONT WEAKENS JUST TO
OUR SSE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. WINDS REMAIN SSW SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC, AS IT BECOMES DOMINANT WX FEATURE. WAVES 1-2
FT/SEAS 2-4 FT. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT IN THE BAY...BUILDING TO
2-3 FT THIS EVENG. SEAS 2-3 FT EARLY...BUILDING TO 3-4 FT LATE,
HIGHEST OUTER WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301034
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
634 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG A COLD FRONT EAST OF PITTSBURG WILL EXIT
THE REGION THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
LOWER HUMIDITY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES LATER TODAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO ADJUST FOR POPS AND QUICKER MOVEMENT OF
FRONT. WIND SHIFT WITH FRONT IS THROUGH PITTSBURGH AND WILL
CROSS RIDGES AROUND 12Z. MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS INTO EASTERN OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PA AT 09Z. BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS JUST
AHEAD OF FRONT WILL EXIT RIDGES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MUCH DRIER
AIR WORKING IN THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
OVERNIGHT DROPPING TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW AVERAGE UNDER CLEAR
SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NEAR SEASONAL VALUES WITH LOWER
HUMIDITY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING FAST A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WITH
A REINFORCING WEAK COLD FRONT SATURDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY
BUT LEFT OUT POPS FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS TIMING UNCERTAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONAL TEMPS MUCH OF THE TIME...THOUGH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH COULD PROVIDE RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN TOWARD MID WEEK. MADE DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC TEMPS AND POPS TO NUDGE THE ENSEMBLE BASED
FORECAST SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A NARROW BAND OF MVFR CIGS IS EXPECTED NEAR AN EXITING COLD FRONT
E OF PIT EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH SCT DIURNAL CU UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301034
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
634 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG A COLD FRONT EAST OF PITTSBURG WILL EXIT
THE REGION THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
LOWER HUMIDITY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES LATER TODAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO ADJUST FOR POPS AND QUICKER MOVEMENT OF
FRONT. WIND SHIFT WITH FRONT IS THROUGH PITTSBURGH AND WILL
CROSS RIDGES AROUND 12Z. MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS INTO EASTERN OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PA AT 09Z. BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS JUST
AHEAD OF FRONT WILL EXIT RIDGES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MUCH DRIER
AIR WORKING IN THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
OVERNIGHT DROPPING TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW AVERAGE UNDER CLEAR
SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NEAR SEASONAL VALUES WITH LOWER
HUMIDITY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING FAST A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WITH
A REINFORCING WEAK COLD FRONT SATURDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY
BUT LEFT OUT POPS FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS TIMING UNCERTAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONAL TEMPS MUCH OF THE TIME...THOUGH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH COULD PROVIDE RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN TOWARD MID WEEK. MADE DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC TEMPS AND POPS TO NUDGE THE ENSEMBLE BASED
FORECAST SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A NARROW BAND OF MVFR CIGS IS EXPECTED NEAR AN EXITING COLD FRONT
E OF PIT EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH SCT DIURNAL CU UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301034
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
634 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG A COLD FRONT EAST OF PITTSBURG WILL EXIT
THE REGION THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
LOWER HUMIDITY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES LATER TODAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO ADJUST FOR POPS AND QUICKER MOVEMENT OF
FRONT. WIND SHIFT WITH FRONT IS THROUGH PITTSBURGH AND WILL
CROSS RIDGES AROUND 12Z. MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS INTO EASTERN OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PA AT 09Z. BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS JUST
AHEAD OF FRONT WILL EXIT RIDGES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MUCH DRIER
AIR WORKING IN THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
OVERNIGHT DROPPING TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW AVERAGE UNDER CLEAR
SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NEAR SEASONAL VALUES WITH LOWER
HUMIDITY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING FAST A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WITH
A REINFORCING WEAK COLD FRONT SATURDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY
BUT LEFT OUT POPS FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS TIMING UNCERTAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONAL TEMPS MUCH OF THE TIME...THOUGH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH COULD PROVIDE RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN TOWARD MID WEEK. MADE DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC TEMPS AND POPS TO NUDGE THE ENSEMBLE BASED
FORECAST SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A NARROW BAND OF MVFR CIGS IS EXPECTED NEAR AN EXITING COLD FRONT
E OF PIT EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH SCT DIURNAL CU UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301034
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
634 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG A COLD FRONT EAST OF PITTSBURG WILL EXIT
THE REGION THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
LOWER HUMIDITY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES LATER TODAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO ADJUST FOR POPS AND QUICKER MOVEMENT OF
FRONT. WIND SHIFT WITH FRONT IS THROUGH PITTSBURGH AND WILL
CROSS RIDGES AROUND 12Z. MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS INTO EASTERN OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PA AT 09Z. BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS JUST
AHEAD OF FRONT WILL EXIT RIDGES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MUCH DRIER
AIR WORKING IN THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
OVERNIGHT DROPPING TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW AVERAGE UNDER CLEAR
SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NEAR SEASONAL VALUES WITH LOWER
HUMIDITY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING FAST A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WITH
A REINFORCING WEAK COLD FRONT SATURDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY
BUT LEFT OUT POPS FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS TIMING UNCERTAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONAL TEMPS MUCH OF THE TIME...THOUGH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH COULD PROVIDE RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN TOWARD MID WEEK. MADE DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC TEMPS AND POPS TO NUDGE THE ENSEMBLE BASED
FORECAST SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A NARROW BAND OF MVFR CIGS IS EXPECTED NEAR AN EXITING COLD FRONT
E OF PIT EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH SCT DIURNAL CU UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300848
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
448 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
RIDGES EARLY THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LOWER HUMIDITY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES LATER TODAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO ADJUST FOR POPS AND QUICKER MOVEMENT OF
FRONT. WIND SHIFT WITH FRONT IS THROUGH PITTSBURGH AND WILL
CROSS RIDGES AROUND 12Z. MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS INTO EASTERN OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PA AT 09Z. BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS JUST
AHEAD OF FRONT WILL EXIT RIDGES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MUCH DRIER
AIR WORKING IN THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
OVERNIGHT DROPPING TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW AVERAGE UNDER CLEAR
SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NEAR SEASONAL VALUES WITH LOWER
HUMIDITY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING FAST A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WITH
A REINFORCING WEAK COLD FRONT SATURDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY
BUT LEFT OUT POPS FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS TIMING UNCERTAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONAL TEMPS MUCH OF THE TIME...THOUGH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH COULD PROVIDE RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN TOWARD MID WEEK. MADE DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC TEMPS AND POPS TO NUDGE THE ENSEMBLE BASED
FORECAST SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW BRIEF MVFR SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A FEW DIURNAL
CU.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300848
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
448 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
RIDGES EARLY THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LOWER HUMIDITY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES LATER TODAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO ADJUST FOR POPS AND QUICKER MOVEMENT OF
FRONT. WIND SHIFT WITH FRONT IS THROUGH PITTSBURGH AND WILL
CROSS RIDGES AROUND 12Z. MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS INTO EASTERN OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PA AT 09Z. BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS JUST
AHEAD OF FRONT WILL EXIT RIDGES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MUCH DRIER
AIR WORKING IN THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
OVERNIGHT DROPPING TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW AVERAGE UNDER CLEAR
SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NEAR SEASONAL VALUES WITH LOWER
HUMIDITY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING FAST A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WITH
A REINFORCING WEAK COLD FRONT SATURDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY
BUT LEFT OUT POPS FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS TIMING UNCERTAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONAL TEMPS MUCH OF THE TIME...THOUGH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH COULD PROVIDE RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN TOWARD MID WEEK. MADE DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC TEMPS AND POPS TO NUDGE THE ENSEMBLE BASED
FORECAST SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW BRIEF MVFR SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A FEW DIURNAL
CU.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300828
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
428 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING...THEN
CROSSES THE REGION AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE LOCAL AREA
LATER FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPR RIDGING RETROGRADES A BIT TODAY...AS A TROF MOVES ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLC REGION LATER
THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVENG. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT...CHC POPS (30-50%) FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN ACRS NNW
AREAS DURING THE AFTN INTO EARLY EVENG...LOWERING TO 14-20% ACRS
FAR SE VA/CSTL NE NC. A FEW TSTMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. PARTLY SUNNY WITH HI TEMPS IN THE LWR
90S...EXCEPT MID TO UPR 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACRS THE FA THIS EVENG/TNGT AND MOVES OFFSHR
FRI MORNG. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS (30-50%) MOST AREAS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THRU EARLY FRI MORNG. PCPN QUICKLY PUSHES
S/E BY LATE FRI MORNG...SO THAT MOST PLACES WILL BE DRY ON
FRI. DID MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS ACRS EXTRM SE AREAS INTO MIDDAY FRI.
OTHERWISE...HI PRES AND DRIER AIR BLDS INTO AND OVR THE REGION
DURING FRI. LO TEMPS TNGT IN THE UPR 60S NW TO THE MID 70S SE.
HI TEMPS ON FRI IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
HI PRES WILL REMAIN OVR THE AREA FOR FRI NGT AND SAT. DRY WX WITH
A MOSTLY CLEAR/MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HUMIDITY LEVELS START TO INCREASE
AGAIN ON SAT...DUE TO SFC WINDS FM THE SSW. LOWS FRI NGT IN THE
60S TO LWR 70S. HIGHS ON SAT IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SW
CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTING ACRS HUDSON BAY CANADA.
GFS/ECMWF INTO BETTER DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT...THEN FLATTEN
OUT SUN WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACRS THE MID ATLC BY MON.

FRONT STALLS AND DISSIPATES OVER FAR SRN VA/NC SAT NIGHT. BEST
CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH/MAINLY NE NC THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BUT EVEN HERE WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20-30% POPS/PRIMARILY
FOR THE AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME ON SUN/TAPERED TO 20% FAR SRN VA
AND DRY ELSEWHERE). WILL MAINTAIN 30-40% POPS NE NC FOR MON DUE
TO THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AS
THIS IS 5 DAYS OUT...POPS AROUND 20% NORTH. KEEPING POPS AROUND
20% ALL AREAS TUE. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE MID 80S/AROUND 90 F ALONG THE
COAST TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND. LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
MID 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY (SCT TO BKN HIGH CLOUDS AOA 20KFT)
PREVAILS ACROSS TAF TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. SE WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MID MORNING
AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT FOG.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY. EXPECT
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD, ESPECIALLY N/W PORTIONS. THERE IS A CHC FOR TSTMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING BUT WITH ISO-SCT AREAL COVERAGE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT, HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT AT THIS TIME.
WILL RE-EVALUATE WITH 12Z TAFS. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE S/SW AT
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 15 TO 18 KNOTS
PSBL.

OUTLOOK...A CHC FOR TSTMS CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY, AND
WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FRIDAY MORNING. MAINLY DRY WEATHER
IS INDICATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHC FOR TSTMS MAINLY SOUTH
ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING.
HAVE NOTED WINDS TO ~15 KT ACROSS NORTHERN BAY ZONES...AS WINDS HAVE
NUDGED UPWARD EARLY TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHARPENING LEE TROUGH
WEST OF THE WATERS. A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
MORNING WILL PUSH TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...CROSSING
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE BECOMING STALLED
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY AFTN. WINDS TURN AROUND FROM THE
W-SW TODAY TO THE NNW BY LATE TONIGHT. NOT ANTICIPATING A STRONG
COOL SURGE ON FRI...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NNE BY MIDDAY
FRI...BECOMING ESE BY LATE IN THE DAY/FRI EVENING. WINDS THEN TURN
BACK TO THE SSW FOR FRI NGT AND SAT...AS THE FRONT WEAKENS JUST TO
OUR SSE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. WINDS REMAIN SSW SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC, AS IT BECOMES DOMINANT WX FEATURE. WAVES 1-2
FT/SEAS 2-4 FT. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT IN THE BAY...BUILDING TO
2-3 FT THIS EVENG. SEAS 2-3 FT EARLY...BUILDING TO 3-4 FT LATE,
HIGHEST OUTER WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300828
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
428 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING...THEN
CROSSES THE REGION AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE LOCAL AREA
LATER FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPR RIDGING RETROGRADES A BIT TODAY...AS A TROF MOVES ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLC REGION LATER
THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVENG. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT...CHC POPS (30-50%) FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN ACRS NNW
AREAS DURING THE AFTN INTO EARLY EVENG...LOWERING TO 14-20% ACRS
FAR SE VA/CSTL NE NC. A FEW TSTMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. PARTLY SUNNY WITH HI TEMPS IN THE LWR
90S...EXCEPT MID TO UPR 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACRS THE FA THIS EVENG/TNGT AND MOVES OFFSHR
FRI MORNG. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS (30-50%) MOST AREAS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THRU EARLY FRI MORNG. PCPN QUICKLY PUSHES
S/E BY LATE FRI MORNG...SO THAT MOST PLACES WILL BE DRY ON
FRI. DID MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS ACRS EXTRM SE AREAS INTO MIDDAY FRI.
OTHERWISE...HI PRES AND DRIER AIR BLDS INTO AND OVR THE REGION
DURING FRI. LO TEMPS TNGT IN THE UPR 60S NW TO THE MID 70S SE.
HI TEMPS ON FRI IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
HI PRES WILL REMAIN OVR THE AREA FOR FRI NGT AND SAT. DRY WX WITH
A MOSTLY CLEAR/MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HUMIDITY LEVELS START TO INCREASE
AGAIN ON SAT...DUE TO SFC WINDS FM THE SSW. LOWS FRI NGT IN THE
60S TO LWR 70S. HIGHS ON SAT IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SW
CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTING ACRS HUDSON BAY CANADA.
GFS/ECMWF INTO BETTER DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT...THEN FLATTEN
OUT SUN WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACRS THE MID ATLC BY MON.

FRONT STALLS AND DISSIPATES OVER FAR SRN VA/NC SAT NIGHT. BEST
CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH/MAINLY NE NC THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BUT EVEN HERE WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20-30% POPS/PRIMARILY
FOR THE AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME ON SUN/TAPERED TO 20% FAR SRN VA
AND DRY ELSEWHERE). WILL MAINTAIN 30-40% POPS NE NC FOR MON DUE
TO THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AS
THIS IS 5 DAYS OUT...POPS AROUND 20% NORTH. KEEPING POPS AROUND
20% ALL AREAS TUE. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE MID 80S/AROUND 90 F ALONG THE
COAST TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND. LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
MID 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY (SCT TO BKN HIGH CLOUDS AOA 20KFT)
PREVAILS ACROSS TAF TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. SE WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MID MORNING
AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT FOG.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY. EXPECT
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD, ESPECIALLY N/W PORTIONS. THERE IS A CHC FOR TSTMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING BUT WITH ISO-SCT AREAL COVERAGE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT, HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT AT THIS TIME.
WILL RE-EVALUATE WITH 12Z TAFS. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE S/SW AT
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 15 TO 18 KNOTS
PSBL.

OUTLOOK...A CHC FOR TSTMS CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY, AND
WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FRIDAY MORNING. MAINLY DRY WEATHER
IS INDICATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHC FOR TSTMS MAINLY SOUTH
ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING.
HAVE NOTED WINDS TO ~15 KT ACROSS NORTHERN BAY ZONES...AS WINDS HAVE
NUDGED UPWARD EARLY TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHARPENING LEE TROUGH
WEST OF THE WATERS. A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
MORNING WILL PUSH TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...CROSSING
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE BECOMING STALLED
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY AFTN. WINDS TURN AROUND FROM THE
W-SW TODAY TO THE NNW BY LATE TONIGHT. NOT ANTICIPATING A STRONG
COOL SURGE ON FRI...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NNE BY MIDDAY
FRI...BECOMING ESE BY LATE IN THE DAY/FRI EVENING. WINDS THEN TURN
BACK TO THE SSW FOR FRI NGT AND SAT...AS THE FRONT WEAKENS JUST TO
OUR SSE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. WINDS REMAIN SSW SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC, AS IT BECOMES DOMINANT WX FEATURE. WAVES 1-2
FT/SEAS 2-4 FT. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT IN THE BAY...BUILDING TO
2-3 FT THIS EVENG. SEAS 2-3 FT EARLY...BUILDING TO 3-4 FT LATE,
HIGHEST OUTER WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300828
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
428 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING...THEN
CROSSES THE REGION AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE LOCAL AREA
LATER FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPR RIDGING RETROGRADES A BIT TODAY...AS A TROF MOVES ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLC REGION LATER
THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVENG. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT...CHC POPS (30-50%) FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN ACRS NNW
AREAS DURING THE AFTN INTO EARLY EVENG...LOWERING TO 14-20% ACRS
FAR SE VA/CSTL NE NC. A FEW TSTMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. PARTLY SUNNY WITH HI TEMPS IN THE LWR
90S...EXCEPT MID TO UPR 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACRS THE FA THIS EVENG/TNGT AND MOVES OFFSHR
FRI MORNG. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS (30-50%) MOST AREAS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THRU EARLY FRI MORNG. PCPN QUICKLY PUSHES
S/E BY LATE FRI MORNG...SO THAT MOST PLACES WILL BE DRY ON
FRI. DID MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS ACRS EXTRM SE AREAS INTO MIDDAY FRI.
OTHERWISE...HI PRES AND DRIER AIR BLDS INTO AND OVR THE REGION
DURING FRI. LO TEMPS TNGT IN THE UPR 60S NW TO THE MID 70S SE.
HI TEMPS ON FRI IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
HI PRES WILL REMAIN OVR THE AREA FOR FRI NGT AND SAT. DRY WX WITH
A MOSTLY CLEAR/MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HUMIDITY LEVELS START TO INCREASE
AGAIN ON SAT...DUE TO SFC WINDS FM THE SSW. LOWS FRI NGT IN THE
60S TO LWR 70S. HIGHS ON SAT IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SW
CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTING ACRS HUDSON BAY CANADA.
GFS/ECMWF INTO BETTER DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT...THEN FLATTEN
OUT SUN WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACRS THE MID ATLC BY MON.

FRONT STALLS AND DISSIPATES OVER FAR SRN VA/NC SAT NIGHT. BEST
CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH/MAINLY NE NC THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BUT EVEN HERE WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20-30% POPS/PRIMARILY
FOR THE AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME ON SUN/TAPERED TO 20% FAR SRN VA
AND DRY ELSEWHERE). WILL MAINTAIN 30-40% POPS NE NC FOR MON DUE
TO THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AS
THIS IS 5 DAYS OUT...POPS AROUND 20% NORTH. KEEPING POPS AROUND
20% ALL AREAS TUE. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE MID 80S/AROUND 90 F ALONG THE
COAST TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND. LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
MID 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY (SCT TO BKN HIGH CLOUDS AOA 20KFT)
PREVAILS ACROSS TAF TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. SE WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MID MORNING
AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT FOG.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY. EXPECT
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD, ESPECIALLY N/W PORTIONS. THERE IS A CHC FOR TSTMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING BUT WITH ISO-SCT AREAL COVERAGE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT, HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT AT THIS TIME.
WILL RE-EVALUATE WITH 12Z TAFS. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE S/SW AT
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 15 TO 18 KNOTS
PSBL.

OUTLOOK...A CHC FOR TSTMS CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY, AND
WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FRIDAY MORNING. MAINLY DRY WEATHER
IS INDICATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHC FOR TSTMS MAINLY SOUTH
ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING.
HAVE NOTED WINDS TO ~15 KT ACROSS NORTHERN BAY ZONES...AS WINDS HAVE
NUDGED UPWARD EARLY TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHARPENING LEE TROUGH
WEST OF THE WATERS. A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
MORNING WILL PUSH TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...CROSSING
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE BECOMING STALLED
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY AFTN. WINDS TURN AROUND FROM THE
W-SW TODAY TO THE NNW BY LATE TONIGHT. NOT ANTICIPATING A STRONG
COOL SURGE ON FRI...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NNE BY MIDDAY
FRI...BECOMING ESE BY LATE IN THE DAY/FRI EVENING. WINDS THEN TURN
BACK TO THE SSW FOR FRI NGT AND SAT...AS THE FRONT WEAKENS JUST TO
OUR SSE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. WINDS REMAIN SSW SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC, AS IT BECOMES DOMINANT WX FEATURE. WAVES 1-2
FT/SEAS 2-4 FT. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT IN THE BAY...BUILDING TO
2-3 FT THIS EVENG. SEAS 2-3 FT EARLY...BUILDING TO 3-4 FT LATE,
HIGHEST OUTER WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300828
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
428 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING...THEN
CROSSES THE REGION AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE LOCAL AREA
LATER FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPR RIDGING RETROGRADES A BIT TODAY...AS A TROF MOVES ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLC REGION LATER
THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVENG. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT...CHC POPS (30-50%) FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN ACRS NNW
AREAS DURING THE AFTN INTO EARLY EVENG...LOWERING TO 14-20% ACRS
FAR SE VA/CSTL NE NC. A FEW TSTMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. PARTLY SUNNY WITH HI TEMPS IN THE LWR
90S...EXCEPT MID TO UPR 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACRS THE FA THIS EVENG/TNGT AND MOVES OFFSHR
FRI MORNG. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS (30-50%) MOST AREAS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THRU EARLY FRI MORNG. PCPN QUICKLY PUSHES
S/E BY LATE FRI MORNG...SO THAT MOST PLACES WILL BE DRY ON
FRI. DID MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS ACRS EXTRM SE AREAS INTO MIDDAY FRI.
OTHERWISE...HI PRES AND DRIER AIR BLDS INTO AND OVR THE REGION
DURING FRI. LO TEMPS TNGT IN THE UPR 60S NW TO THE MID 70S SE.
HI TEMPS ON FRI IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
HI PRES WILL REMAIN OVR THE AREA FOR FRI NGT AND SAT. DRY WX WITH
A MOSTLY CLEAR/MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HUMIDITY LEVELS START TO INCREASE
AGAIN ON SAT...DUE TO SFC WINDS FM THE SSW. LOWS FRI NGT IN THE
60S TO LWR 70S. HIGHS ON SAT IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SW
CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTING ACRS HUDSON BAY CANADA.
GFS/ECMWF INTO BETTER DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT...THEN FLATTEN
OUT SUN WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACRS THE MID ATLC BY MON.

FRONT STALLS AND DISSIPATES OVER FAR SRN VA/NC SAT NIGHT. BEST
CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH/MAINLY NE NC THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BUT EVEN HERE WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20-30% POPS/PRIMARILY
FOR THE AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME ON SUN/TAPERED TO 20% FAR SRN VA
AND DRY ELSEWHERE). WILL MAINTAIN 30-40% POPS NE NC FOR MON DUE
TO THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AS
THIS IS 5 DAYS OUT...POPS AROUND 20% NORTH. KEEPING POPS AROUND
20% ALL AREAS TUE. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE MID 80S/AROUND 90 F ALONG THE
COAST TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND. LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
MID 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY (SCT TO BKN HIGH CLOUDS AOA 20KFT)
PREVAILS ACROSS TAF TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. SE WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MID MORNING
AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT FOG.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY. EXPECT
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD, ESPECIALLY N/W PORTIONS. THERE IS A CHC FOR TSTMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING BUT WITH ISO-SCT AREAL COVERAGE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT, HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT AT THIS TIME.
WILL RE-EVALUATE WITH 12Z TAFS. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE S/SW AT
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 15 TO 18 KNOTS
PSBL.

OUTLOOK...A CHC FOR TSTMS CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY, AND
WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FRIDAY MORNING. MAINLY DRY WEATHER
IS INDICATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHC FOR TSTMS MAINLY SOUTH
ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING.
HAVE NOTED WINDS TO ~15 KT ACROSS NORTHERN BAY ZONES...AS WINDS HAVE
NUDGED UPWARD EARLY TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHARPENING LEE TROUGH
WEST OF THE WATERS. A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
MORNING WILL PUSH TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...CROSSING
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE BECOMING STALLED
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY AFTN. WINDS TURN AROUND FROM THE
W-SW TODAY TO THE NNW BY LATE TONIGHT. NOT ANTICIPATING A STRONG
COOL SURGE ON FRI...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NNE BY MIDDAY
FRI...BECOMING ESE BY LATE IN THE DAY/FRI EVENING. WINDS THEN TURN
BACK TO THE SSW FOR FRI NGT AND SAT...AS THE FRONT WEAKENS JUST TO
OUR SSE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. WINDS REMAIN SSW SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC, AS IT BECOMES DOMINANT WX FEATURE. WAVES 1-2
FT/SEAS 2-4 FT. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT IN THE BAY...BUILDING TO
2-3 FT THIS EVENG. SEAS 2-3 FT EARLY...BUILDING TO 3-4 FT LATE,
HIGHEST OUTER WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300828
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
428 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING...THEN
CROSSES THE REGION AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE LOCAL AREA
LATER FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPR RIDGING RETROGRADES A BIT TODAY...AS A TROF MOVES ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLC REGION LATER
THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVENG. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT...CHC POPS (30-50%) FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN ACRS NNW
AREAS DURING THE AFTN INTO EARLY EVENG...LOWERING TO 14-20% ACRS
FAR SE VA/CSTL NE NC. A FEW TSTMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. PARTLY SUNNY WITH HI TEMPS IN THE LWR
90S...EXCEPT MID TO UPR 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACRS THE FA THIS EVENG/TNGT AND MOVES OFFSHR
FRI MORNG. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS (30-50%) MOST AREAS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THRU EARLY FRI MORNG. PCPN QUICKLY PUSHES
S/E BY LATE FRI MORNG...SO THAT MOST PLACES WILL BE DRY ON
FRI. DID MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS ACRS EXTRM SE AREAS INTO MIDDAY FRI.
OTHERWISE...HI PRES AND DRIER AIR BLDS INTO AND OVR THE REGION
DURING FRI. LO TEMPS TNGT IN THE UPR 60S NW TO THE MID 70S SE.
HI TEMPS ON FRI IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
HI PRES WILL REMAIN OVR THE AREA FOR FRI NGT AND SAT. DRY WX WITH
A MOSTLY CLEAR/MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HUMIDITY LEVELS START TO INCREASE
AGAIN ON SAT...DUE TO SFC WINDS FM THE SSW. LOWS FRI NGT IN THE
60S TO LWR 70S. HIGHS ON SAT IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SW
CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTING ACRS HUDSON BAY CANADA.
GFS/ECMWF INTO BETTER DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT...THEN FLATTEN
OUT SUN WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACRS THE MID ATLC BY MON.

FRONT STALLS AND DISSIPATES OVER FAR SRN VA/NC SAT NIGHT. BEST
CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH/MAINLY NE NC THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BUT EVEN HERE WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20-30% POPS/PRIMARILY
FOR THE AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME ON SUN/TAPERED TO 20% FAR SRN VA
AND DRY ELSEWHERE). WILL MAINTAIN 30-40% POPS NE NC FOR MON DUE
TO THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AS
THIS IS 5 DAYS OUT...POPS AROUND 20% NORTH. KEEPING POPS AROUND
20% ALL AREAS TUE. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE MID 80S/AROUND 90 F ALONG THE
COAST TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND. LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
MID 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY (SCT TO BKN HIGH CLOUDS AOA 20KFT)
PREVAILS ACROSS TAF TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. SE WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MID MORNING
AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT FOG.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY. EXPECT
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD, ESPECIALLY N/W PORTIONS. THERE IS A CHC FOR TSTMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING BUT WITH ISO-SCT AREAL COVERAGE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT, HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT AT THIS TIME.
WILL RE-EVALUATE WITH 12Z TAFS. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE S/SW AT
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 15 TO 18 KNOTS
PSBL.

OUTLOOK...A CHC FOR TSTMS CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY, AND
WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FRIDAY MORNING. MAINLY DRY WEATHER
IS INDICATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHC FOR TSTMS MAINLY SOUTH
ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING.
HAVE NOTED WINDS TO ~15 KT ACROSS NORTHERN BAY ZONES...AS WINDS HAVE
NUDGED UPWARD EARLY TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHARPENING LEE TROUGH
WEST OF THE WATERS. A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
MORNING WILL PUSH TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...CROSSING
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE BECOMING STALLED
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY AFTN. WINDS TURN AROUND FROM THE
W-SW TODAY TO THE NNW BY LATE TONIGHT. NOT ANTICIPATING A STRONG
COOL SURGE ON FRI...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NNE BY MIDDAY
FRI...BECOMING ESE BY LATE IN THE DAY/FRI EVENING. WINDS THEN TURN
BACK TO THE SSW FOR FRI NGT AND SAT...AS THE FRONT WEAKENS JUST TO
OUR SSE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. WINDS REMAIN SSW SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC, AS IT BECOMES DOMINANT WX FEATURE. WAVES 1-2
FT/SEAS 2-4 FT. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT IN THE BAY...BUILDING TO
2-3 FT THIS EVENG. SEAS 2-3 FT EARLY...BUILDING TO 3-4 FT LATE,
HIGHEST OUTER WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300828
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
428 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING...THEN
CROSSES THE REGION AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE LOCAL AREA
LATER FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPR RIDGING RETROGRADES A BIT TODAY...AS A TROF MOVES ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLC REGION LATER
THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVENG. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT...CHC POPS (30-50%) FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN ACRS NNW
AREAS DURING THE AFTN INTO EARLY EVENG...LOWERING TO 14-20% ACRS
FAR SE VA/CSTL NE NC. A FEW TSTMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. PARTLY SUNNY WITH HI TEMPS IN THE LWR
90S...EXCEPT MID TO UPR 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACRS THE FA THIS EVENG/TNGT AND MOVES OFFSHR
FRI MORNG. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS (30-50%) MOST AREAS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THRU EARLY FRI MORNG. PCPN QUICKLY PUSHES
S/E BY LATE FRI MORNG...SO THAT MOST PLACES WILL BE DRY ON
FRI. DID MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS ACRS EXTRM SE AREAS INTO MIDDAY FRI.
OTHERWISE...HI PRES AND DRIER AIR BLDS INTO AND OVR THE REGION
DURING FRI. LO TEMPS TNGT IN THE UPR 60S NW TO THE MID 70S SE.
HI TEMPS ON FRI IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
HI PRES WILL REMAIN OVR THE AREA FOR FRI NGT AND SAT. DRY WX WITH
A MOSTLY CLEAR/MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HUMIDITY LEVELS START TO INCREASE
AGAIN ON SAT...DUE TO SFC WINDS FM THE SSW. LOWS FRI NGT IN THE
60S TO LWR 70S. HIGHS ON SAT IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SW
CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTING ACRS HUDSON BAY CANADA.
GFS/ECMWF INTO BETTER DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT...THEN FLATTEN
OUT SUN WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACRS THE MID ATLC BY MON.

FRONT STALLS AND DISSIPATES OVER FAR SRN VA/NC SAT NIGHT. BEST
CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH/MAINLY NE NC THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BUT EVEN HERE WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20-30% POPS/PRIMARILY
FOR THE AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME ON SUN/TAPERED TO 20% FAR SRN VA
AND DRY ELSEWHERE). WILL MAINTAIN 30-40% POPS NE NC FOR MON DUE
TO THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AS
THIS IS 5 DAYS OUT...POPS AROUND 20% NORTH. KEEPING POPS AROUND
20% ALL AREAS TUE. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE MID 80S/AROUND 90 F ALONG THE
COAST TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND. LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
MID 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY (SCT TO BKN HIGH CLOUDS AOA 20KFT)
PREVAILS ACROSS TAF TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. SE WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MID MORNING
AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT FOG.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY. EXPECT
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD, ESPECIALLY N/W PORTIONS. THERE IS A CHC FOR TSTMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING BUT WITH ISO-SCT AREAL COVERAGE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT, HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT AT THIS TIME.
WILL RE-EVALUATE WITH 12Z TAFS. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE S/SW AT
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 15 TO 18 KNOTS
PSBL.

OUTLOOK...A CHC FOR TSTMS CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY, AND
WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FRIDAY MORNING. MAINLY DRY WEATHER
IS INDICATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHC FOR TSTMS MAINLY SOUTH
ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING.
HAVE NOTED WINDS TO ~15 KT ACROSS NORTHERN BAY ZONES...AS WINDS HAVE
NUDGED UPWARD EARLY TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHARPENING LEE TROUGH
WEST OF THE WATERS. A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
MORNING WILL PUSH TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...CROSSING
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE BECOMING STALLED
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY AFTN. WINDS TURN AROUND FROM THE
W-SW TODAY TO THE NNW BY LATE TONIGHT. NOT ANTICIPATING A STRONG
COOL SURGE ON FRI...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NNE BY MIDDAY
FRI...BECOMING ESE BY LATE IN THE DAY/FRI EVENING. WINDS THEN TURN
BACK TO THE SSW FOR FRI NGT AND SAT...AS THE FRONT WEAKENS JUST TO
OUR SSE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. WINDS REMAIN SSW SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC, AS IT BECOMES DOMINANT WX FEATURE. WAVES 1-2
FT/SEAS 2-4 FT. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT IN THE BAY...BUILDING TO
2-3 FT THIS EVENG. SEAS 2-3 FT EARLY...BUILDING TO 3-4 FT LATE,
HIGHEST OUTER WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KLWX 300759
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
359 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT AND PERSISTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...AS OF 07Z...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS
OFFSHORE WITH A LIGHT SLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS FLOW...ALONG
WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS HAS LIMITED FOG POTENTIAL. THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT IS OVER SERN OH WITH A SCATTERED LINE OF PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL WV. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S WITH MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...PUSHING EAST
OF THE BAY THIS EVENING. DUE TO WLY FLOW WITH THE ACTIVITY...EXPECT
A TYPICAL PATTERN OF GREATER COVERAGE NORTH IN THE CWA DUE TO
INCREASING DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FROM THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT. THEREFORE...LIKELY POPS PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE
NRN 2/3 OF THE CWA WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE SRN THIRD.

EXCEPTIONAL SFC MOISTURE OVER THE AREA MAKES THE GREATEST RISK TODAY
FLASH FLOODING FROM EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE
PROGRESSIVE...SO THIS THREAT IS ISOLATED AT BEST. THERE IS A
MARGINAL SEVERE RISK EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE DIURNAL TIMING OF
ACTIVITY IS BEST (AFTERNOON). HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE JUST LIKE
YESTERDAY WILL LIMIT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE SEVERE THREAT.
JUST A LOW WET MICROBURST THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY.

WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR TWO LINES DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...THE
BROKEN PREFRONTAL LINE WITH A SECOND BROKEN LINE ON THE FRONT ITSELF
THRIVING ON ANY REMAINING UNTAPPED INSTABILITY. BOTH LINES LOOK TO
BE GENERAL-YET-HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS.

HOT TODAY WITH MAX TEMPS LOW 90S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE THICK
CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD OUT THE LONGEST. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
WILL RESULT IN MAX HEAT INDICES AGAIN AROUND 100F (JUST LIKE
PREVIOUS TWO DAYS). NO HEAT ADVISORY...BUT IT WILL BE UNCOMFORTABLE
UNTIL THE STORMS HIT/FRONT CROSSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...COLD FRONT CLEARS
THE SERN ZONES THURSDAY EVENING WITH DRIER AIR TRAILING.
DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE UPR 50S/LOW 60S TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS 60S
WEST OF I-95...LOW 70S EAST.

FRIDAY...H85 TEMPS 16-18 WITH MAX TEMPS AROUND 90F. DEWPOINTS WILL
BE DOWN AROUND 60F...SO NO HEAT INDEX IS EXPECTED. DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FRI NIGHT. A PRESSURE TROUGH ESTABLISHES SAT WITH SOME
MOISTURE RETURN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. SFC
RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN SUN GIVING WAY TO A HOT SUNNY DAY. WINDS TURN
SWRLY AGAIN ON MON AS PRESSURE TROUGH ESTABLISHES WITH SOME
MOISTURE RETURN AND A RISK OF T-STORMS. A CDFNT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA TUE WITH DRY NWRLY WINDS AND A COOLING TREND MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE REGION. IN SUMMARY...HOT WX
DURING THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN TURNING COOLER MID
WEEK ON. PRECIP LOOKS TO BE BELOW NORMAL NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...VFR PREVAILS THIS MORNING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND SLY FLOW 5- 10KT. WEAK COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY ENTERING WV CROSSES TERMINALS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL TAFS EXCEPT KCHO
MIDDAY INTO THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS END THIS EVENING WITH NWLY
FLOW AROUND 10 KT AFTER THE FRONT. DRIER AND VFR TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

A SLIGHT RISK OF T-STORMS SAT AND MON. REST OF THE TIME LOOKS FINE
WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SCA FOR SLY CHANNELING FOR MOST BAY WATERS UNTIL SUNRISE. SCA FOR
ALL WATERS STARTING AT 3PM AND CONTINUING UNTIL LATE EVENING AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT WITH HEAVY AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS CROSS. SCA
CONTINUES FOR MAIN BAY WATERS FOR NWLY FLOW 15 TO 20 KT LATE
TONIGHT. FLOW DECREASES TO 10 TO 15 KT FRIDAY.

POSSIBLE SCA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA MOST OF THE 5-DAY FCST PERIOD. A SLIGHT RISK OF T-STORMS
SAT AND MON.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...WATER LEVELS AROUND 0.65FT ABOVE NORMAL AT
ANNAPOLIS IS MAKING FOR A MINOR COASTAL FLOOD (THRESHOLD 2.4FT).
COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS EVENING...SO NO FURTHER FLOODING EXPECTED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ530>534-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>533-538>541.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-536-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...BAJ/LFR
MARINE...BAJ/LFR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BAJ



000
FXUS61 KLWX 300759
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
359 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT AND PERSISTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...AS OF 07Z...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS
OFFSHORE WITH A LIGHT SLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS FLOW...ALONG
WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS HAS LIMITED FOG POTENTIAL. THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT IS OVER SERN OH WITH A SCATTERED LINE OF PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL WV. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S WITH MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...PUSHING EAST
OF THE BAY THIS EVENING. DUE TO WLY FLOW WITH THE ACTIVITY...EXPECT
A TYPICAL PATTERN OF GREATER COVERAGE NORTH IN THE CWA DUE TO
INCREASING DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FROM THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT. THEREFORE...LIKELY POPS PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE
NRN 2/3 OF THE CWA WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE SRN THIRD.

EXCEPTIONAL SFC MOISTURE OVER THE AREA MAKES THE GREATEST RISK TODAY
FLASH FLOODING FROM EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE
PROGRESSIVE...SO THIS THREAT IS ISOLATED AT BEST. THERE IS A
MARGINAL SEVERE RISK EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE DIURNAL TIMING OF
ACTIVITY IS BEST (AFTERNOON). HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE JUST LIKE
YESTERDAY WILL LIMIT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE SEVERE THREAT.
JUST A LOW WET MICROBURST THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY.

WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR TWO LINES DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...THE
BROKEN PREFRONTAL LINE WITH A SECOND BROKEN LINE ON THE FRONT ITSELF
THRIVING ON ANY REMAINING UNTAPPED INSTABILITY. BOTH LINES LOOK TO
BE GENERAL-YET-HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS.

HOT TODAY WITH MAX TEMPS LOW 90S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE THICK
CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD OUT THE LONGEST. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
WILL RESULT IN MAX HEAT INDICES AGAIN AROUND 100F (JUST LIKE
PREVIOUS TWO DAYS). NO HEAT ADVISORY...BUT IT WILL BE UNCOMFORTABLE
UNTIL THE STORMS HIT/FRONT CROSSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...COLD FRONT CLEARS
THE SERN ZONES THURSDAY EVENING WITH DRIER AIR TRAILING.
DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE UPR 50S/LOW 60S TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS 60S
WEST OF I-95...LOW 70S EAST.

FRIDAY...H85 TEMPS 16-18 WITH MAX TEMPS AROUND 90F. DEWPOINTS WILL
BE DOWN AROUND 60F...SO NO HEAT INDEX IS EXPECTED. DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FRI NIGHT. A PRESSURE TROUGH ESTABLISHES SAT WITH SOME
MOISTURE RETURN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. SFC
RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN SUN GIVING WAY TO A HOT SUNNY DAY. WINDS TURN
SWRLY AGAIN ON MON AS PRESSURE TROUGH ESTABLISHES WITH SOME
MOISTURE RETURN AND A RISK OF T-STORMS. A CDFNT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA TUE WITH DRY NWRLY WINDS AND A COOLING TREND MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE REGION. IN SUMMARY...HOT WX
DURING THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN TURNING COOLER MID
WEEK ON. PRECIP LOOKS TO BE BELOW NORMAL NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...VFR PREVAILS THIS MORNING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND SLY FLOW 5- 10KT. WEAK COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY ENTERING WV CROSSES TERMINALS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL TAFS EXCEPT KCHO
MIDDAY INTO THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS END THIS EVENING WITH NWLY
FLOW AROUND 10 KT AFTER THE FRONT. DRIER AND VFR TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

A SLIGHT RISK OF T-STORMS SAT AND MON. REST OF THE TIME LOOKS FINE
WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SCA FOR SLY CHANNELING FOR MOST BAY WATERS UNTIL SUNRISE. SCA FOR
ALL WATERS STARTING AT 3PM AND CONTINUING UNTIL LATE EVENING AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT WITH HEAVY AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS CROSS. SCA
CONTINUES FOR MAIN BAY WATERS FOR NWLY FLOW 15 TO 20 KT LATE
TONIGHT. FLOW DECREASES TO 10 TO 15 KT FRIDAY.

POSSIBLE SCA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA MOST OF THE 5-DAY FCST PERIOD. A SLIGHT RISK OF T-STORMS
SAT AND MON.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...WATER LEVELS AROUND 0.65FT ABOVE NORMAL AT
ANNAPOLIS IS MAKING FOR A MINOR COASTAL FLOOD (THRESHOLD 2.4FT).
COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS EVENING...SO NO FURTHER FLOODING EXPECTED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ530>534-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>533-538>541.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-536-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...BAJ/LFR
MARINE...BAJ/LFR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BAJ




000
FXUS61 KLWX 300759
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
359 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT AND PERSISTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...AS OF 07Z...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS
OFFSHORE WITH A LIGHT SLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS FLOW...ALONG
WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS HAS LIMITED FOG POTENTIAL. THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT IS OVER SERN OH WITH A SCATTERED LINE OF PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL WV. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S WITH MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...PUSHING EAST
OF THE BAY THIS EVENING. DUE TO WLY FLOW WITH THE ACTIVITY...EXPECT
A TYPICAL PATTERN OF GREATER COVERAGE NORTH IN THE CWA DUE TO
INCREASING DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FROM THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT. THEREFORE...LIKELY POPS PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE
NRN 2/3 OF THE CWA WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE SRN THIRD.

EXCEPTIONAL SFC MOISTURE OVER THE AREA MAKES THE GREATEST RISK TODAY
FLASH FLOODING FROM EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE
PROGRESSIVE...SO THIS THREAT IS ISOLATED AT BEST. THERE IS A
MARGINAL SEVERE RISK EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE DIURNAL TIMING OF
ACTIVITY IS BEST (AFTERNOON). HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE JUST LIKE
YESTERDAY WILL LIMIT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE SEVERE THREAT.
JUST A LOW WET MICROBURST THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY.

WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR TWO LINES DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...THE
BROKEN PREFRONTAL LINE WITH A SECOND BROKEN LINE ON THE FRONT ITSELF
THRIVING ON ANY REMAINING UNTAPPED INSTABILITY. BOTH LINES LOOK TO
BE GENERAL-YET-HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS.

HOT TODAY WITH MAX TEMPS LOW 90S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE THICK
CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD OUT THE LONGEST. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
WILL RESULT IN MAX HEAT INDICES AGAIN AROUND 100F (JUST LIKE
PREVIOUS TWO DAYS). NO HEAT ADVISORY...BUT IT WILL BE UNCOMFORTABLE
UNTIL THE STORMS HIT/FRONT CROSSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...COLD FRONT CLEARS
THE SERN ZONES THURSDAY EVENING WITH DRIER AIR TRAILING.
DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE UPR 50S/LOW 60S TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS 60S
WEST OF I-95...LOW 70S EAST.

FRIDAY...H85 TEMPS 16-18 WITH MAX TEMPS AROUND 90F. DEWPOINTS WILL
BE DOWN AROUND 60F...SO NO HEAT INDEX IS EXPECTED. DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FRI NIGHT. A PRESSURE TROUGH ESTABLISHES SAT WITH SOME
MOISTURE RETURN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. SFC
RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN SUN GIVING WAY TO A HOT SUNNY DAY. WINDS TURN
SWRLY AGAIN ON MON AS PRESSURE TROUGH ESTABLISHES WITH SOME
MOISTURE RETURN AND A RISK OF T-STORMS. A CDFNT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA TUE WITH DRY NWRLY WINDS AND A COOLING TREND MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE REGION. IN SUMMARY...HOT WX
DURING THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN TURNING COOLER MID
WEEK ON. PRECIP LOOKS TO BE BELOW NORMAL NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...VFR PREVAILS THIS MORNING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND SLY FLOW 5- 10KT. WEAK COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY ENTERING WV CROSSES TERMINALS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL TAFS EXCEPT KCHO
MIDDAY INTO THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS END THIS EVENING WITH NWLY
FLOW AROUND 10 KT AFTER THE FRONT. DRIER AND VFR TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

A SLIGHT RISK OF T-STORMS SAT AND MON. REST OF THE TIME LOOKS FINE
WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SCA FOR SLY CHANNELING FOR MOST BAY WATERS UNTIL SUNRISE. SCA FOR
ALL WATERS STARTING AT 3PM AND CONTINUING UNTIL LATE EVENING AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT WITH HEAVY AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS CROSS. SCA
CONTINUES FOR MAIN BAY WATERS FOR NWLY FLOW 15 TO 20 KT LATE
TONIGHT. FLOW DECREASES TO 10 TO 15 KT FRIDAY.

POSSIBLE SCA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA MOST OF THE 5-DAY FCST PERIOD. A SLIGHT RISK OF T-STORMS
SAT AND MON.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...WATER LEVELS AROUND 0.65FT ABOVE NORMAL AT
ANNAPOLIS IS MAKING FOR A MINOR COASTAL FLOOD (THRESHOLD 2.4FT).
COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS EVENING...SO NO FURTHER FLOODING EXPECTED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ530>534-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>533-538>541.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-536-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...BAJ/LFR
MARINE...BAJ/LFR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BAJ




000
FXUS61 KLWX 300759
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
359 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT AND PERSISTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...AS OF 07Z...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS
OFFSHORE WITH A LIGHT SLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS FLOW...ALONG
WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS HAS LIMITED FOG POTENTIAL. THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT IS OVER SERN OH WITH A SCATTERED LINE OF PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL WV. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S WITH MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...PUSHING EAST
OF THE BAY THIS EVENING. DUE TO WLY FLOW WITH THE ACTIVITY...EXPECT
A TYPICAL PATTERN OF GREATER COVERAGE NORTH IN THE CWA DUE TO
INCREASING DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FROM THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT. THEREFORE...LIKELY POPS PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE
NRN 2/3 OF THE CWA WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE SRN THIRD.

EXCEPTIONAL SFC MOISTURE OVER THE AREA MAKES THE GREATEST RISK TODAY
FLASH FLOODING FROM EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE
PROGRESSIVE...SO THIS THREAT IS ISOLATED AT BEST. THERE IS A
MARGINAL SEVERE RISK EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE DIURNAL TIMING OF
ACTIVITY IS BEST (AFTERNOON). HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE JUST LIKE
YESTERDAY WILL LIMIT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE SEVERE THREAT.
JUST A LOW WET MICROBURST THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY.

WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR TWO LINES DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...THE
BROKEN PREFRONTAL LINE WITH A SECOND BROKEN LINE ON THE FRONT ITSELF
THRIVING ON ANY REMAINING UNTAPPED INSTABILITY. BOTH LINES LOOK TO
BE GENERAL-YET-HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS.

HOT TODAY WITH MAX TEMPS LOW 90S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE THICK
CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD OUT THE LONGEST. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
WILL RESULT IN MAX HEAT INDICES AGAIN AROUND 100F (JUST LIKE
PREVIOUS TWO DAYS). NO HEAT ADVISORY...BUT IT WILL BE UNCOMFORTABLE
UNTIL THE STORMS HIT/FRONT CROSSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...COLD FRONT CLEARS
THE SERN ZONES THURSDAY EVENING WITH DRIER AIR TRAILING.
DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE UPR 50S/LOW 60S TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS 60S
WEST OF I-95...LOW 70S EAST.

FRIDAY...H85 TEMPS 16-18 WITH MAX TEMPS AROUND 90F. DEWPOINTS WILL
BE DOWN AROUND 60F...SO NO HEAT INDEX IS EXPECTED. DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FRI NIGHT. A PRESSURE TROUGH ESTABLISHES SAT WITH SOME
MOISTURE RETURN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. SFC
RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN SUN GIVING WAY TO A HOT SUNNY DAY. WINDS TURN
SWRLY AGAIN ON MON AS PRESSURE TROUGH ESTABLISHES WITH SOME
MOISTURE RETURN AND A RISK OF T-STORMS. A CDFNT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA TUE WITH DRY NWRLY WINDS AND A COOLING TREND MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE REGION. IN SUMMARY...HOT WX
DURING THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN TURNING COOLER MID
WEEK ON. PRECIP LOOKS TO BE BELOW NORMAL NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...VFR PREVAILS THIS MORNING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND SLY FLOW 5- 10KT. WEAK COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY ENTERING WV CROSSES TERMINALS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL TAFS EXCEPT KCHO
MIDDAY INTO THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS END THIS EVENING WITH NWLY
FLOW AROUND 10 KT AFTER THE FRONT. DRIER AND VFR TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

A SLIGHT RISK OF T-STORMS SAT AND MON. REST OF THE TIME LOOKS FINE
WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SCA FOR SLY CHANNELING FOR MOST BAY WATERS UNTIL SUNRISE. SCA FOR
ALL WATERS STARTING AT 3PM AND CONTINUING UNTIL LATE EVENING AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT WITH HEAVY AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS CROSS. SCA
CONTINUES FOR MAIN BAY WATERS FOR NWLY FLOW 15 TO 20 KT LATE
TONIGHT. FLOW DECREASES TO 10 TO 15 KT FRIDAY.

POSSIBLE SCA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA MOST OF THE 5-DAY FCST PERIOD. A SLIGHT RISK OF T-STORMS
SAT AND MON.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...WATER LEVELS AROUND 0.65FT ABOVE NORMAL AT
ANNAPOLIS IS MAKING FOR A MINOR COASTAL FLOOD (THRESHOLD 2.4FT).
COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS EVENING...SO NO FURTHER FLOODING EXPECTED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ530>534-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>533-538>541.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-536-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...BAJ/LFR
MARINE...BAJ/LFR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BAJ


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPHI 300757
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
357 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT, THEN STALLS
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS OUR
AREA LATE SATURDAY BEFORE STALLING OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A FEW WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY TRACK ALONG THE FRONT AND POSSIBLY MOVE CLOSER
TO OUR COAST MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO ARRIVE. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO ARRIVE DURING TUESDAY, BEFORE ALSO
STALLING NEARBY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY FOR THE
PHILADELPHIA METRO AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO POP UP ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND ARE MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST.

CLOUDS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. HOWEVER, THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO BE HAD
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK FROM
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO OUR AREA TODAY, REACHING OUR WESTERN ZONES
AROUND LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION, THERE WILL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT AS
IT PUSHES TOWARDS THE COAST.

STORMS LOOK MOST LIKELY TO ARRIVE TO THE REGION AFTER NOON, WITH A
GRADUAL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. WITH A RIPE ATMOSPHERE AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM
THAT DEVELOPS.

IN ADDITION, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MUCH OF OUR AREA IN
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE GREATEST THREAT FROM
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE GUSTY TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

ANOTHER HUMID DAY ON TAP AS WE SEE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE
NEAR 90 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S, APPROACHING 100. THEREFORE, WE HAVE CONTINUED
THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THE URBAN AREAS IN AND AROUND
PHILADELPHIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK TOWARD THE COAST
AND SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS
THE FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST AND THEN FURTHER OFFSHORE. AS THE
FRONT PUSHES AWAY, WE WILL ALSO SEE SOME CLEARING BEHIND IT AND
AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF PHILLY WILL BE ABLE TO COOL OFF A BIT
AND DROP DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S OVERNIGHT. AREAS TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF PHILLY WILL HOLD ONTO THE CLOUD COVER A BIT LONGER
AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS. EVEN WITH THE CLEARING, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY HANG AROUND FOR
A BIT AND PATCHY FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY WITH SOME AMPLIFICATION INTO THE
WEEKEND. DESPITE A WARM TO HOT AIRMASS IN PLACE, A SUBSTANTIAL
REDUCTION IN THE DEW POINTS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND EVEN FOR THE
WEEKEND OVERALL FOR THE CWA. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY WITH SOME POTENTIALLY TRICKY CONVECTIVE CHCS, THEN THE NEXT
ONE ARRIVES DURING TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING NEARBY WEDNESDAY. THERE
IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH AND THE POSITIONING OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
WILL IMPACT OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT WITH MOSTLY A WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND
THEREAFTER.

FOR FRIDAY...AN INITIAL FRONT IS STALLED OFFSHORE AS IT BECOMES
TRAPPED BETWEEN A RIDGE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A TROUGH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST. ANY REMAINING FRONTAL FORCING AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE, MEANWHILE A
NOTICEABLE DRIER AIRMASS SETTLES INTO OUR AREA. DESPITE IT STILL
BEING WARM TO HOT ACROSS THE CWA, THE LOWER DEW POINTS WILL RESULT
IN A MUCH LESS HUMID FEEL /EVEN COOLER AT NIGHT/. THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES SOME ESPECIALLY TO OUR NORTHWEST
THROUGH NORTHEAST, AND SOME UPSTREAM CONVECTION MAY TRY TO MAKE A
RUN AT OUR NORTHWEST ZONES VERY LATE AT NIGHT. OVERALL, THIS LOOKS
LIKE A VERY SMALL CHC PLUS WITH THE INITIAL DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE
AND THEREFORE WE OPTED TO LEAVE THE NIGHT TIME FRAME DRY.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH IT MAY WEAKEN SOME SUNDAY AS A RIDGE IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD. THIS KEEPS A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT WEAK RIPPLES OF
ENERGY ALONG IT REMAINS TO OUR EAST. A SECONDARY FRONTAL ZONE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, AND THE GREATEST
LIFT AND SHEAR IS MOSTLY FROM NEAR OUR NORTHERN ZONES ON NORTHWARD
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE DEW POINTS SHOULD START TO INCH BACK UPWARD
AGAIN LATER SATURDAY, HOWEVER ENOUGH DRYING MAY LIMIT MUCH
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SOME GUIDANCE DOES INITIATE MORE CONVECTION
BY LATE SATURDAY FROM NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY THEN SLIDES IT SOUTHEASTWARD. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SHEAR WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR A GUSTY THUNDERSTORM, HOWEVER
THIS IS DEPENDENT ON THE AIRMASS MOISTENING UP SUFFICIENTLY AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE. FOR NOW, WE CONTINUED SOME LOW
END CHC POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL JUST OFFSHORE GIVEN WEAKER FLOW WITH A
SOUTHEASTERN EXTENT, HOWEVER SOME WEAK IMPULSES MAY TRACK ALONG IT.
IT APPEARS THAT ANY CONVECTION LEFTOVER WITH THE FRONT IS OFFSHORE,
THEREFORE WE HAVE A DRY SUNDAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM GIVEN A
SIMILAR PATTERN AND THE DEW POINTS WILL PROBABLY INCREASE A BIT
MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS FROM THE
WEST, IT MAY SUPPORT WEAK IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE OFFSHORE FRONT. IF
THIS OCCURS AND WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FOR A TIME, THE FRONT MAY INCH BACK INTO OUR AREA TO HELP FOCUS SOME
CONVECTION MONDAY. THIS LOOKS WEAK OVERALL WITH THE MAIN FORCING
REMAINING MOSTLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY. TIED TO THIS
FORCING, ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES DURING TUESDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTION ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER SHEAR MAY AGAIN
SLIDE TO OUR NORTH. WE OPTED TO GO CLOSE TO THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE
WHICH CARRIES POPS OF LOW END CHC OR LESS.

FOR WEDNESDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO WEAKEN IN THE
NORTHEAST, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM TUESDAY SHOULD SLOW OR EVEN
STALL IN OUR VICINITY. THIS COULD HELP FOCUS SOME CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING, WITH POSSIBLE
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED IMPULSES ARRIVING FROM THE WEST. THERE IS MUCH
MORE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT AS THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL GOVERN THE FRONTAL ZONE PLACEMENT AND SUBSEQUENT
CONVECTIVE CHCS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A COUPLE OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR KRDG THIS MORNING.
THESE SHOWERS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT AND ARE MOVING QUICKLY OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING, FULLY EXITING THE REGION BY LATE MORNING. MAJORITY OF THE
REGION REMAINS DRY WITH SHOWERS HAVING LITTLE TO NO IMPACT TO THE
TERMINALS THIS MORNING.

MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH
THIS MORNING WITH SOME MVFR DECKS IMPACTING KRDG AND POSSIBLY KABE
THROUGH AROUND 12-13Z.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT, ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA BETWEEN 16-18Z. THE FRONT WILL
PUSH TO THROUGH THE TERMINALS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST,
EXITING OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. TIMING IS STILL AN ISSUE BUT EXPECT
THE FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH KACY BETWEEN 22-01Z. CLEARING IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY,
BECOMING NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SOME FOG EARLY MAINLY AT KMIV AND KACY,
OTHERWISE VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, THEN DIMINISHING TO
NEAR 5 KNOTS AT NIGHT AND BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY.

SATURDAY...VFR OVERALL. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF KPHL. SOUTHWEST WINDS
5-10 KNOTS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KNOTS IS EXPECTED ON THE AREA WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND REACH THE AREA WATERS
LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERALL. A LINGERING FRONT OFFSHORE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, THEN ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
AND POSSIBLY STALLS NEARBY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST FOR
TODAY, WITH INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT AND THE FULL MOON ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-
     071-102-104-106.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ015-
     017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 300757
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
357 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT, THEN STALLS
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS OUR
AREA LATE SATURDAY BEFORE STALLING OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A FEW WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY TRACK ALONG THE FRONT AND POSSIBLY MOVE CLOSER
TO OUR COAST MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO ARRIVE. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO ARRIVE DURING TUESDAY, BEFORE ALSO
STALLING NEARBY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY FOR THE
PHILADELPHIA METRO AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO POP UP ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND ARE MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST.

CLOUDS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. HOWEVER, THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO BE HAD
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK FROM
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO OUR AREA TODAY, REACHING OUR WESTERN ZONES
AROUND LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION, THERE WILL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT AS
IT PUSHES TOWARDS THE COAST.

STORMS LOOK MOST LIKELY TO ARRIVE TO THE REGION AFTER NOON, WITH A
GRADUAL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. WITH A RIPE ATMOSPHERE AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM
THAT DEVELOPS.

IN ADDITION, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MUCH OF OUR AREA IN
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE GREATEST THREAT FROM
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE GUSTY TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

ANOTHER HUMID DAY ON TAP AS WE SEE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE
NEAR 90 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S, APPROACHING 100. THEREFORE, WE HAVE CONTINUED
THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THE URBAN AREAS IN AND AROUND
PHILADELPHIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK TOWARD THE COAST
AND SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS
THE FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST AND THEN FURTHER OFFSHORE. AS THE
FRONT PUSHES AWAY, WE WILL ALSO SEE SOME CLEARING BEHIND IT AND
AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF PHILLY WILL BE ABLE TO COOL OFF A BIT
AND DROP DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S OVERNIGHT. AREAS TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF PHILLY WILL HOLD ONTO THE CLOUD COVER A BIT LONGER
AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS. EVEN WITH THE CLEARING, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY HANG AROUND FOR
A BIT AND PATCHY FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY WITH SOME AMPLIFICATION INTO THE
WEEKEND. DESPITE A WARM TO HOT AIRMASS IN PLACE, A SUBSTANTIAL
REDUCTION IN THE DEW POINTS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND EVEN FOR THE
WEEKEND OVERALL FOR THE CWA. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY WITH SOME POTENTIALLY TRICKY CONVECTIVE CHCS, THEN THE NEXT
ONE ARRIVES DURING TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING NEARBY WEDNESDAY. THERE
IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH AND THE POSITIONING OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
WILL IMPACT OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT WITH MOSTLY A WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND
THEREAFTER.

FOR FRIDAY...AN INITIAL FRONT IS STALLED OFFSHORE AS IT BECOMES
TRAPPED BETWEEN A RIDGE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A TROUGH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST. ANY REMAINING FRONTAL FORCING AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE, MEANWHILE A
NOTICEABLE DRIER AIRMASS SETTLES INTO OUR AREA. DESPITE IT STILL
BEING WARM TO HOT ACROSS THE CWA, THE LOWER DEW POINTS WILL RESULT
IN A MUCH LESS HUMID FEEL /EVEN COOLER AT NIGHT/. THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES SOME ESPECIALLY TO OUR NORTHWEST
THROUGH NORTHEAST, AND SOME UPSTREAM CONVECTION MAY TRY TO MAKE A
RUN AT OUR NORTHWEST ZONES VERY LATE AT NIGHT. OVERALL, THIS LOOKS
LIKE A VERY SMALL CHC PLUS WITH THE INITIAL DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE
AND THEREFORE WE OPTED TO LEAVE THE NIGHT TIME FRAME DRY.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH IT MAY WEAKEN SOME SUNDAY AS A RIDGE IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD. THIS KEEPS A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT WEAK RIPPLES OF
ENERGY ALONG IT REMAINS TO OUR EAST. A SECONDARY FRONTAL ZONE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, AND THE GREATEST
LIFT AND SHEAR IS MOSTLY FROM NEAR OUR NORTHERN ZONES ON NORTHWARD
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE DEW POINTS SHOULD START TO INCH BACK UPWARD
AGAIN LATER SATURDAY, HOWEVER ENOUGH DRYING MAY LIMIT MUCH
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SOME GUIDANCE DOES INITIATE MORE CONVECTION
BY LATE SATURDAY FROM NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY THEN SLIDES IT SOUTHEASTWARD. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SHEAR WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR A GUSTY THUNDERSTORM, HOWEVER
THIS IS DEPENDENT ON THE AIRMASS MOISTENING UP SUFFICIENTLY AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE. FOR NOW, WE CONTINUED SOME LOW
END CHC POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL JUST OFFSHORE GIVEN WEAKER FLOW WITH A
SOUTHEASTERN EXTENT, HOWEVER SOME WEAK IMPULSES MAY TRACK ALONG IT.
IT APPEARS THAT ANY CONVECTION LEFTOVER WITH THE FRONT IS OFFSHORE,
THEREFORE WE HAVE A DRY SUNDAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM GIVEN A
SIMILAR PATTERN AND THE DEW POINTS WILL PROBABLY INCREASE A BIT
MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS FROM THE
WEST, IT MAY SUPPORT WEAK IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE OFFSHORE FRONT. IF
THIS OCCURS AND WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FOR A TIME, THE FRONT MAY INCH BACK INTO OUR AREA TO HELP FOCUS SOME
CONVECTION MONDAY. THIS LOOKS WEAK OVERALL WITH THE MAIN FORCING
REMAINING MOSTLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY. TIED TO THIS
FORCING, ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES DURING TUESDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTION ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER SHEAR MAY AGAIN
SLIDE TO OUR NORTH. WE OPTED TO GO CLOSE TO THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE
WHICH CARRIES POPS OF LOW END CHC OR LESS.

FOR WEDNESDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO WEAKEN IN THE
NORTHEAST, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM TUESDAY SHOULD SLOW OR EVEN
STALL IN OUR VICINITY. THIS COULD HELP FOCUS SOME CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING, WITH POSSIBLE
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED IMPULSES ARRIVING FROM THE WEST. THERE IS MUCH
MORE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT AS THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL GOVERN THE FRONTAL ZONE PLACEMENT AND SUBSEQUENT
CONVECTIVE CHCS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A COUPLE OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR KRDG THIS MORNING.
THESE SHOWERS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT AND ARE MOVING QUICKLY OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING, FULLY EXITING THE REGION BY LATE MORNING. MAJORITY OF THE
REGION REMAINS DRY WITH SHOWERS HAVING LITTLE TO NO IMPACT TO THE
TERMINALS THIS MORNING.

MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH
THIS MORNING WITH SOME MVFR DECKS IMPACTING KRDG AND POSSIBLY KABE
THROUGH AROUND 12-13Z.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT, ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA BETWEEN 16-18Z. THE FRONT WILL
PUSH TO THROUGH THE TERMINALS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST,
EXITING OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. TIMING IS STILL AN ISSUE BUT EXPECT
THE FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH KACY BETWEEN 22-01Z. CLEARING IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY,
BECOMING NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SOME FOG EARLY MAINLY AT KMIV AND KACY,
OTHERWISE VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, THEN DIMINISHING TO
NEAR 5 KNOTS AT NIGHT AND BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY.

SATURDAY...VFR OVERALL. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF KPHL. SOUTHWEST WINDS
5-10 KNOTS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KNOTS IS EXPECTED ON THE AREA WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND REACH THE AREA WATERS
LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERALL. A LINGERING FRONT OFFSHORE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, THEN ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
AND POSSIBLY STALLS NEARBY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST FOR
TODAY, WITH INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT AND THE FULL MOON ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-
     071-102-104-106.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ015-
     017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300716
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
316 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AS
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LOWER
HUMIDITY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WIND SHIFT WITH MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS PRESSING INTO EASTERN OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PA AT 07Z AND FRONT IS QUICKLY SHIFTING SOUTHEAST.
BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS JUST AHEAD OF FRONT WILL EXIT
THIS MORNING WITH MUCH DRIER AIR WORKING IN THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT DROPPING TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW
AVERAGE UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NEAR SEASONAL VALUES WITH LOWER
HUMIDITY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING FAST A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WITH
A REINFORCING WEAK COLD FRONT SATURDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY
BUT LEFT OUT POPS FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS TIMING UNCERTAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONAL TEMPS MUCH OF THE TIME...THOUGH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH COULD PROVIDE RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN TOWARD MID WEEK. MADE DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC TEMPS AND POPS TO NUDGE THE ENSEMBLE BASED
FORECAST SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW BRIEF MVFR SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A FEW DIURNAL
CU.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300716
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
316 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AS
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LOWER
HUMIDITY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WIND SHIFT WITH MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS PRESSING INTO EASTERN OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PA AT 07Z AND FRONT IS QUICKLY SHIFTING SOUTHEAST.
BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS JUST AHEAD OF FRONT WILL EXIT
THIS MORNING WITH MUCH DRIER AIR WORKING IN THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT DROPPING TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW
AVERAGE UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NEAR SEASONAL VALUES WITH LOWER
HUMIDITY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING FAST A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WITH
A REINFORCING WEAK COLD FRONT SATURDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY
BUT LEFT OUT POPS FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS TIMING UNCERTAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONAL TEMPS MUCH OF THE TIME...THOUGH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH COULD PROVIDE RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN TOWARD MID WEEK. MADE DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC TEMPS AND POPS TO NUDGE THE ENSEMBLE BASED
FORECAST SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW BRIEF MVFR SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A FEW DIURNAL
CU.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300716
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
316 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AS
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LOWER
HUMIDITY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WIND SHIFT WITH MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS PRESSING INTO EASTERN OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PA AT 07Z AND FRONT IS QUICKLY SHIFTING SOUTHEAST.
BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS JUST AHEAD OF FRONT WILL EXIT
THIS MORNING WITH MUCH DRIER AIR WORKING IN THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT DROPPING TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW
AVERAGE UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NEAR SEASONAL VALUES WITH LOWER
HUMIDITY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING FAST A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WITH
A REINFORCING WEAK COLD FRONT SATURDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY
BUT LEFT OUT POPS FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS TIMING UNCERTAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONAL TEMPS MUCH OF THE TIME...THOUGH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH COULD PROVIDE RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN TOWARD MID WEEK. MADE DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC TEMPS AND POPS TO NUDGE THE ENSEMBLE BASED
FORECAST SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW BRIEF MVFR SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A FEW DIURNAL
CU.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300716
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
316 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AS
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LOWER
HUMIDITY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WIND SHIFT WITH MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS PRESSING INTO EASTERN OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PA AT 07Z AND FRONT IS QUICKLY SHIFTING SOUTHEAST.
BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS JUST AHEAD OF FRONT WILL EXIT
THIS MORNING WITH MUCH DRIER AIR WORKING IN THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT DROPPING TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW
AVERAGE UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NEAR SEASONAL VALUES WITH LOWER
HUMIDITY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING FAST A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WITH
A REINFORCING WEAK COLD FRONT SATURDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY
BUT LEFT OUT POPS FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS TIMING UNCERTAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONAL TEMPS MUCH OF THE TIME...THOUGH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH COULD PROVIDE RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN TOWARD MID WEEK. MADE DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC TEMPS AND POPS TO NUDGE THE ENSEMBLE BASED
FORECAST SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW BRIEF MVFR SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A FEW DIURNAL
CU.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300554
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
154 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ANOTHER WARM/MILD NIGHT IN STORE AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 70S
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS LATE THIS EVENING STILL HOVERING IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH A FEW 80 DEG READINGS NEAR THE COAST AND
URBAN AREAS. STALLED BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC
REGION THIS EVENING. APPROACHING COLD FRONT (LOCATED OVER THE OH
VALLEY) WILL PRODUCE PRESSURE FALLS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...WHICH COULD PROVIDE SUBTLE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IN AN ALREADY MOIST AIR MASS (PWATS ~2 INCHES). WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NW COUNTIES...BUT A LACK OF
APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE AREA DRY. SKY AVERAGES
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN OVER THE
NRN PIEDMONT AND NRN VA. OTHERWISE...MILD WITH LOWS IN THE MID
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...
UPR RIDGING RETROGRADES A BIT AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY
LATE IN THE DAY. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...CHC POPS
(30-50%) WILL REMAIN ACROSS NNW AREAS DURING THE AFTN...LOWERING TO
10-20% ACROSS FAR SE VA/COASTAL NE NC. PARTLY SUNNY WITH HIGH TEMPS
IN THE LOW 90S...EXCEPT MID/UPR 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE PUSHING
SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY. HAVE CHC POPS
(30-50%) MOST AREAS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY
FRI MORN. PCPN QUICKLY PUSHES SOUTH/EAST BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING...SO THAT MOST PLACES WILL BE DRY ON FRIDAY. DID MAINTAIN
20-30% POPS ACROSS SE AREAS...HOWEVER...EVEN THAT THREAT IS
PRIMARILY THRU THE EARLY AFTN BEFORE THINGS DRY OUT. THIS IS A
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS AS THE FRONT NOW LOOKS LIKE IT
PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH AND QUICKER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. LOW
TEMPS THU NGT IN THE UPR 60S NW TO THE MID 70S SE. HIGH TEMPS FRI
IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
LATEST GUIDANCE NOW HAS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT STALLING FARTHER
SOUTH ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND BECAUSE
OF A MORE PRONOUNCED UPR TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST. THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. HIGHS SAT IN
THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SW
CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTING ACRS HUDSON BAY CANADA.
GFS/ECMWF INTO BETTER DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT...THEN FLATTEN
OUT SUN WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACRS THE MID ATLC BY MON.

FRONT STALLS AND DISSIPATES OVER FAR SRN VA/NC SAT NIGHT. BEST
CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH/MAINLY NE NC THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BUT EVEN HERE WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20-30% POPS/PRIMARILY
FOR THE AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME ON SUN/TAPERED TO 20% FAR SRN VA
AND DRY ELSEWHERE). WILL MAINTAIN 30-40% POPS NE NC FOR MON DUE
TO THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AS
THIS IS 5 DAYS OUT...POPS AROUND 20% NORTH. KEEPING POPS AROUND
20% ALL AREAS TUE. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE MID 80S/AROUND 90 F ALONG THE
COAST TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND. LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
MID 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY (SCT TO BKN HIGH CLOUDS AOA 20KFT)
PREVAILS ACROSS TAF TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. SE WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MID MORNING
AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT FOG.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY. EXPECT
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD, ESPECIALLY N/W PORTIONS. THERE IS A CHC FOR TSTMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING BUT WITH ISO-SCT AREAL COVERAGE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT, HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT AT THIS TIME.
WILL RE-EVALUATE WITH 12Z TAFS. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE S/SW AT
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 15 TO 18 KNOTS
PSBL.

OUTLOOK...A CHC FOR TSTMS CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY, AND
WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FRIDAY MORNING. MAINLY DRY WEATHER
IS INDICATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHC FOR TSTMS MAINLY SOUTH
ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM THROUGH THU...ALTHOUGH AS SFC/LEE
TROF OVER VA DEEPENS SLIGHTLY AND HELPS S/SE WINDS AVG NEAR 15 KT
IN THE CHES BAY THERE COULD BE A FEW HRS WORTH OF 20 KT GUSTS IN
THE BAY...BUT TOO MARGINAL TO CONSIDER ANY SCA HEADLINES FOR NOW.
WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT IN THE BAY...BUT WILL PROBABLY BLD TO 2-3
FT LATER THIS EVENG. SEAS 2-3 FT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WTRS LATE THU...THEN STALLS
SSE OF THE AREA BY LATE FRI. S/SE WINDS AVG 10-15 KT...TURNING
SSW THU NGT. NOT A STRONG COOL SURGE ON FRI...AS WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NNE FRI MORNG INTO FRI AFTN...THEN TURN TO THE ESE BY LATE IN
THE DAY. WINDS THEN TURN BACK TO THE SSW FOR FRI NGT AND SAT...AS
THE FRONT DISSIPATES SSE OF THE REGION. WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/SAM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MAM/LSA
MARINE...LKB



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300419
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1219 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH
A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LOWER HUMIDITY SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WIND SHIFT WITH MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS NEARING CENTRAL OHIO BUT
WARM ATMOSPHERE ALOFT KEEPING ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF
BOUNDARY. WILL KEEP CHC POPS OVERNIGHT MOST LOCATIONS AS NEWEST
MODELS WANT TO DEVELOP SHOWERS WITH FRONT BEFORE DAYBREAK WITH
WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT. LOWER HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMS THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL TO OUR EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE IN ITS WAKE. THIS
MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK DOWN TOWARDS SEASONAL
VALUES...WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
FRIDAY...SPELLING A PLEASANT AND DRY START TO THE WEEKEND.

NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AREA OPEN TO SHORT-WAVE TROFS
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. PRIMARY WAVE LOOKS TO ARRIVE SATURDAY
MORNING...SKIRTING THE NORTHERN FLANKS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT POPS IN THE CHANCE REALM AS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
IS LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND...BUT DRY AIR ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL PRECLUDE POPS FOR SUNDAY. MID-LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE HEADING INTO
THE NEW WORK WEEK.


.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...THOUGH COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LITTLE FOR A TAF
MENTION. HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH A FEW DIURNAL CU.


OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300419
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1219 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH
A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LOWER HUMIDITY SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WIND SHIFT WITH MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS NEARING CENTRAL OHIO BUT
WARM ATMOSPHERE ALOFT KEEPING ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF
BOUNDARY. WILL KEEP CHC POPS OVERNIGHT MOST LOCATIONS AS NEWEST
MODELS WANT TO DEVELOP SHOWERS WITH FRONT BEFORE DAYBREAK WITH
WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT. LOWER HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMS THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL TO OUR EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE IN ITS WAKE. THIS
MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK DOWN TOWARDS SEASONAL
VALUES...WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
FRIDAY...SPELLING A PLEASANT AND DRY START TO THE WEEKEND.

NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AREA OPEN TO SHORT-WAVE TROFS
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. PRIMARY WAVE LOOKS TO ARRIVE SATURDAY
MORNING...SKIRTING THE NORTHERN FLANKS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT POPS IN THE CHANCE REALM AS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
IS LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND...BUT DRY AIR ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL PRECLUDE POPS FOR SUNDAY. MID-LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE HEADING INTO
THE NEW WORK WEEK.


.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...THOUGH COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LITTLE FOR A TAF
MENTION. HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH A FEW DIURNAL CU.


OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300419
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1219 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH
A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LOWER HUMIDITY SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WIND SHIFT WITH MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS NEARING CENTRAL OHIO BUT
WARM ATMOSPHERE ALOFT KEEPING ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF
BOUNDARY. WILL KEEP CHC POPS OVERNIGHT MOST LOCATIONS AS NEWEST
MODELS WANT TO DEVELOP SHOWERS WITH FRONT BEFORE DAYBREAK WITH
WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT. LOWER HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMS THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL TO OUR EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE IN ITS WAKE. THIS
MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK DOWN TOWARDS SEASONAL
VALUES...WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
FRIDAY...SPELLING A PLEASANT AND DRY START TO THE WEEKEND.

NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AREA OPEN TO SHORT-WAVE TROFS
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. PRIMARY WAVE LOOKS TO ARRIVE SATURDAY
MORNING...SKIRTING THE NORTHERN FLANKS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT POPS IN THE CHANCE REALM AS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
IS LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND...BUT DRY AIR ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL PRECLUDE POPS FOR SUNDAY. MID-LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE HEADING INTO
THE NEW WORK WEEK.


.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...THOUGH COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LITTLE FOR A TAF
MENTION. HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH A FEW DIURNAL CU.


OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300419
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1219 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH
A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LOWER HUMIDITY SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WIND SHIFT WITH MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS NEARING CENTRAL OHIO BUT
WARM ATMOSPHERE ALOFT KEEPING ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF
BOUNDARY. WILL KEEP CHC POPS OVERNIGHT MOST LOCATIONS AS NEWEST
MODELS WANT TO DEVELOP SHOWERS WITH FRONT BEFORE DAYBREAK WITH
WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT. LOWER HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMS THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL TO OUR EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE IN ITS WAKE. THIS
MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK DOWN TOWARDS SEASONAL
VALUES...WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
FRIDAY...SPELLING A PLEASANT AND DRY START TO THE WEEKEND.

NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AREA OPEN TO SHORT-WAVE TROFS
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. PRIMARY WAVE LOOKS TO ARRIVE SATURDAY
MORNING...SKIRTING THE NORTHERN FLANKS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT POPS IN THE CHANCE REALM AS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
IS LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND...BUT DRY AIR ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL PRECLUDE POPS FOR SUNDAY. MID-LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE HEADING INTO
THE NEW WORK WEEK.


.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...THOUGH COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LITTLE FOR A TAF
MENTION. HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH A FEW DIURNAL CU.


OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300216
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1016 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ANOTHER WARM/MILD NIGHT IN STORE AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 70S
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS LATE THIS EVENING STILL HOVERING IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH A FEW 80 DEG READINGS NEAR THE COAST AND
URBAN AREAS. STALLED BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC
REGION THIS EVENING. APPROACHING COLD FRONT (LOCATED OVER THE OH
VALLEY) WILL PRODUCE PRESSURE FALLS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...WHICH COULD PROVIDE SUBTLE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IN AN ALREADY MOIST AIR MASS (PWATS ~2 INCHES). WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NW COUNTIES...BUT A LACK OF
APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE AREA DRY. SKY AVERAGES
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN OVER THE
NRN PIEDMONT AND NRN VA. OTHERWISE...MILD WITH LOWS IN THE MID
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...
UPR RIDGING RETROGRADES A BIT AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY
LATE IN THE DAY. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...CHC POPS
(30-50%) WILL REMAIN ACROSS NNW AREAS DURING THE AFTN...LOWERING TO
10-20% ACROSS FAR SE VA/COASTAL NE NC. PARTLY SUNNY WITH HIGH TEMPS
IN THE LOW 90S...EXCEPT MID/UPR 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE PUSHING
SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY. HAVE CHC POPS
(30-50%) MOST AREAS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY
FRI MORN. PCPN QUICKLY PUSHES SOUTH/EAST BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING...SO THAT MOST PLACES WILL BE DRY ON FRIDAY. DID MAINTAIN
20-30% POPS ACROSS SE AREAS...HOWEVER...EVEN THAT THREAT IS
PRIMARILY THRU THE EARLY AFTN BEFORE THINGS DRY OUT. THIS IS A
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS AS THE FRONT NOW LOOKS LIKE IT
PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH AND QUICKER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. LOW
TEMPS THU NGT IN THE UPR 60S NW TO THE MID 70S SE. HIGH TEMPS FRI
IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
LATEST GUIDANCE NOW HAS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT STALLING FARTHER
SOUTH ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND BECAUSE
OF A MORE PRONOUNCED UPR TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST. THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. HIGHS SAT IN
THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SW
CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTING ACRS HUDSON BAY CANADA.
GFS/ECMWF INTO BETTER DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT...THEN FLATTEN
OUT SUN WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACRS THE MID ATLC BY MON.

FRONT STALLS AND DISSIPATES OVER FAR SRN VA/NC SAT NIGHT. BEST
CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH/MAINLY NE NC THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BUT EVEN HERE WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20-30% POPS/PRIMARILY
FOR THE AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME ON SUN/TAPERED TO 20% FAR SRN VA
AND DRY ELSEWHERE). WILL MAINTAIN 30-40% POPS NE NC FOR MON DUE
TO THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AS
THIS IS 5 DAYS OUT...POPS AROUND 20% NORTH. KEEPING POPS AROUND
20% ALL AREAS TUE. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE MID 80S/AROUND 90 F ALONG THE
COAST TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND. LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
MID 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...THERE IS NO PCPN TO DEAL WITH THE REST OF THE EVENING. A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY PREVAILED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
EAST TO SOUTH WINDS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT AT AROUND 10 KNOTS OR
LESS. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT FOG.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THURSDAY. EXPECT INCREASING
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ESPECIALLY N/W PORTIONS. THERE WILL BE A
CHC FOR TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY BUT NO PCPN IS MENTIONED IN THE FCST.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE S/SW AT AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS TO AROUND 15 TO 18 KNOTS PSBL.

OUTLOOK...A CHC FOR TSTMS CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL END
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON FRIDAY. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS INDICATED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHC FOR TSTMS MAINLY SOUTH ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM THROUGH THU...ALTHOUGH AS SFC/LEE
TROF OVER VA DEEPENS SLIGHTLY AND HELPS S/SE WINDS AVG NEAR 15 KT
IN THE CHES BAY THERE COULD BE A FEW HRS WORTH OF 20 KT GUSTS IN
THE BAY...BUT TOO MARGINAL TO CONSIDER ANY SCA HEADLINES FOR NOW.
WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT IN THE BAY...BUT WILL PROBABLY BLD TO 2-3
FT LATER THIS EVENG. SEAS 2-3 FT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WTRS LATE THU...THEN STALLS
SSE OF THE AREA BY LATE FRI. S/SE WINDS AVG 10-15 KT...TURNING
SSW THU NGT. NOT A STRONG COOL SURGE ON FRI...AS WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NNE FRI MORNG INTO FRI AFTN...THEN TURN TO THE ESE BY LATE IN
THE DAY. WINDS THEN TURN BACK TO THE SSW FOR FRI NGT AND SAT...AS
THE FRONT DISSIPATES SSE OF THE REGION. WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/SAM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LKB




000
FXUS61 KLWX 300200
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1000 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD FOR THE WEEKEND AND HOLD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PCPN CVRG HAS BEEN MUCH SPOTTIER...AND LIGHTER...THAN THIS TIME
YDA. WARM LYR BTWN H6-4 ON 00Z LWX RAOB LKLY THE REASON WHY. RDR
TRENDS SEEM TO HV BEEN CAPTURED BY THE HRRR QUITE WELL. STORMS E
OF THE BLURDG HV DSPTD...W/ ONLY A FEW CELLS IN THE PTMC
HIGHLANDS. IF LTST CYCLE OUTPUT VERIFIES...EVEN THIS ACTIVITY WL
ERODE BEFORE MIDNGT...W/ NOT MUCH GOING ON TIL NEW CELLS APPROACH
THE APLCNS PREDAWN. HV ADAPTED GRIDS TWD THIS DIRECTION...BUT HV
HELD ONTO LOW POPS IN THE MTNS. THAT CAN BE REEVALUATED.

NOT NEARLY AS MUCH WET GRND AS PAST CPL NGTS. HWVR A FAIR AMT OF
CLR SKIES AND DEWPTS IN THE LWR-MID 70S SUGGESTS THERE WL ONCE AGN
BE POTL FOR FOG DVLPMNT. HV KEPT IT PATCHY AND NOT DENSE DUE TO
REASONS MENTIONED ABV...SITUATED ALONG/W OF BLURDG AS WELL AS
ACRS NRN MD.

CDFNT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL ENTER THE FCST
AREA AROUND 18Z THU AND SHOULD CLEAR THE FCST AREA BY 03Z FRI.
FRONT WILL BE LOSING MUCH OF ITS PUNCH BUT IT APPEARS THERE COULD
BE A QUICK BAND OF -SHRA/TSRA RIGHT ALONG OR JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z MODEL SUITE HAS THE COLD FRONT PLACED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
CWA BY 12Z FRIDAY. ANY LINGERING PCPN WITH THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN
TO THE SOUTH AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS AND EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATES OVER THE WEEKEND. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST IN THE WAKE. THE REGION WILL REMAIN AT THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
BROAD CLOSED LOW OVER CANADA...WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING
THE LOW REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH. AS SUCH...EXPECTING DRY WX
FRI AND FRI NIGHT. 12Z GFS SUGGESTING LIGHT PCPN OVER NORTHEASTERN
AREAS OF THE CWA SAT AFTN WITH A SHORTWAVE JUST TO THE NORTH. WILL
KEEP THINGS DRY FOR NOW THOUGH DURING THIS TIME WITH LACK OF SFC
FORCING CURRENTLY NOTED.

QUICK SHOT OF CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY DROP 850MB
TEMPS TO AROUND 15 DEGREES CELSIUS...RESULTING IN HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 80S. THE COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE HIGH BUILDS
IN...WITH 850MB TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK TO NEAR 20 DEGREES CELSIUS BY
SAT AFTN. LOWS FRIDAY NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS NEARING 90 ON
SATURDAY. DEW PTS IN THE 60S SAT SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES WELL BELOW
ADVISORY LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN FOR SUN INTO MON WITH HIGH PRESS DOMINATING
CONDITIONS BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT LINGERS OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST AS IT WEAKENS... THEREFORE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS TO
THE SE AND E OF OUR CWA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING SOME AFTN
SHOWERS ON MON AND TUE... BUT CONFIDENCE WITH IT IS LOW ATTM... SO
HAVE KEPT LOW POPS. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES ON WED INCREASING THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOR THIS DAY. TEMPS WILL NEAR NORMAL
SUN AND GRADUALLY INCREASING INTO HE LOW 90S FOR WED.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDS ACRS THE TERMINALS ATTM. SETUP SEEMS FVRBL FOR FOG
DVLPMNT ONCE AGN BTWN MIDNGT-DAWN. HWVR NOT AS MUCH WET GRND AS
PAST NGTS...WHICH IS COUNTERED BY HIER DEWPTS/LLVL HUMIDITY.
UNSURE EXACTLY HOW THESE TWO FACTORS WL BALANCE EACH OTHER. HV
OPTED TO KEEP PROLONGED MVFR CONDS OVNGT AT MRB...IFR AT CHO
WHERE SHRA WAS RECVD...AND ONLY BRIEF MVFR AT SUNRISE IAD/MTN. DO
NOT HV HIGH CONFIDENCE ATTM. CUD SEE FLGT CONDS WORSE THAN FCST
BUT WAS HESITANT ON OFFERING UP PROLONGED RESTRICTIONS.

FLGT RESTRICTIONS FOR THE MRNG PUSH WL ERODE BY MID MRNG. A CDFNT
WL CROSS THE TERMINALS DURING THE AFTN...AFFECTING THAT PUSH AS
WELL. SCT-NRMS SHRA/TSRA WL BE FOUND ALONG/AHD OF THE FNT. THINK
THERE WL BE SOME DIURNAL STRENGTHENING...AND AM CARRYING VCTS FOR
DC/BALT TERMINALS AS A RESULT. WUD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT IMPACT
AT CHO/MRB BUT PROBABILITY IS LESS. IN THE EVENT OF A DIRECT HIT
BRIEF AOB IFR CAN BE ANTICIPATED. TIMING/SPATIAL UNCERTANTIES
PRECLUDE CARRYING ANY SPECIFIC MENTION ATTM. WSHFT NEAR 18Z AT
MRB...SPREADING EAST TO 21-22Z DCA/BWI.

VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR
LESS...SHIFTING FROM THE NW FRIDAY TO A WESTERLY FLOW SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY WNDS SUSTAINED 10-15 KT ATTM. HWVR...SLY CHANNELING FCST TNGT
OVER THE MD BAY/LWR PTMC. MARGINAL WINDS /MAYBE JUST SHY OF ADVY/
FCST TO CONT THRU THE DAY THU...SPCLY AHD OF CDFNT. SCA ALREADY IN
PLACE. LOOKS SOLID TNGT...AND DO NOT HV CONFIDENCE TO REMOVE IT
FOR TMRW AT THIS JUNCTURE.

BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA GUSTS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ON THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY...WITH ALL WATERS BCMG SUB-SCA BY FRI AFT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
THEN LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LVLS RUNNING ABT A HALF FOOT ABV ASTRO NORMALS THIS EVENING.
HWVR...THERE IS STRONG CONSENSUS AMONGST WATER LVL MODELS THAT THE
UPCOMING HIGH TIDE WL ECLIPSE THE MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLD AT
ANNAPOLIS...WHICH HAS BEEN SUPPORTED BY LATEST RUNS. ONLY A SLGT
INCREASE IN THE CURRENT DEPARTURE WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BEAR THIS
OUT. HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE ADVY FOR AA COUNTY. HIGH TIDE AT APAM2
AT 5AM.

NO OTHER SITE IN JEOPARDY ATTM...ALTHO BALTIMORE CITY/COUNTY AND
WASD2 WL GET AWFULLY CLOSE. THE BALTIMORE HIGH TIDE RUNS BETWEEN
6-8 AM. AT SW DC HIGH TIDE IS APPROX 730 AM.

THE PM TIDE WILL BE THE LOWER OF THE TWO ASTRONOMICALLY. NW WINDS
THEREAFTER SUGGEST THE UPCOMING TIDE WILL BE THE ONLY ONE TO WATCH
CLOSELY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537-539>541-543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LFR/HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS/LFR
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...HTS/SEARS/IMR
MARINE...HTS/SEARS/IMR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 300200
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1000 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD FOR THE WEEKEND AND HOLD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PCPN CVRG HAS BEEN MUCH SPOTTIER...AND LIGHTER...THAN THIS TIME
YDA. WARM LYR BTWN H6-4 ON 00Z LWX RAOB LKLY THE REASON WHY. RDR
TRENDS SEEM TO HV BEEN CAPTURED BY THE HRRR QUITE WELL. STORMS E
OF THE BLURDG HV DSPTD...W/ ONLY A FEW CELLS IN THE PTMC
HIGHLANDS. IF LTST CYCLE OUTPUT VERIFIES...EVEN THIS ACTIVITY WL
ERODE BEFORE MIDNGT...W/ NOT MUCH GOING ON TIL NEW CELLS APPROACH
THE APLCNS PREDAWN. HV ADAPTED GRIDS TWD THIS DIRECTION...BUT HV
HELD ONTO LOW POPS IN THE MTNS. THAT CAN BE REEVALUATED.

NOT NEARLY AS MUCH WET GRND AS PAST CPL NGTS. HWVR A FAIR AMT OF
CLR SKIES AND DEWPTS IN THE LWR-MID 70S SUGGESTS THERE WL ONCE AGN
BE POTL FOR FOG DVLPMNT. HV KEPT IT PATCHY AND NOT DENSE DUE TO
REASONS MENTIONED ABV...SITUATED ALONG/W OF BLURDG AS WELL AS
ACRS NRN MD.

CDFNT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL ENTER THE FCST
AREA AROUND 18Z THU AND SHOULD CLEAR THE FCST AREA BY 03Z FRI.
FRONT WILL BE LOSING MUCH OF ITS PUNCH BUT IT APPEARS THERE COULD
BE A QUICK BAND OF -SHRA/TSRA RIGHT ALONG OR JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z MODEL SUITE HAS THE COLD FRONT PLACED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
CWA BY 12Z FRIDAY. ANY LINGERING PCPN WITH THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN
TO THE SOUTH AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS AND EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATES OVER THE WEEKEND. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST IN THE WAKE. THE REGION WILL REMAIN AT THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
BROAD CLOSED LOW OVER CANADA...WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING
THE LOW REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH. AS SUCH...EXPECTING DRY WX
FRI AND FRI NIGHT. 12Z GFS SUGGESTING LIGHT PCPN OVER NORTHEASTERN
AREAS OF THE CWA SAT AFTN WITH A SHORTWAVE JUST TO THE NORTH. WILL
KEEP THINGS DRY FOR NOW THOUGH DURING THIS TIME WITH LACK OF SFC
FORCING CURRENTLY NOTED.

QUICK SHOT OF CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY DROP 850MB
TEMPS TO AROUND 15 DEGREES CELSIUS...RESULTING IN HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 80S. THE COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE HIGH BUILDS
IN...WITH 850MB TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK TO NEAR 20 DEGREES CELSIUS BY
SAT AFTN. LOWS FRIDAY NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS NEARING 90 ON
SATURDAY. DEW PTS IN THE 60S SAT SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES WELL BELOW
ADVISORY LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN FOR SUN INTO MON WITH HIGH PRESS DOMINATING
CONDITIONS BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT LINGERS OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST AS IT WEAKENS... THEREFORE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS TO
THE SE AND E OF OUR CWA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING SOME AFTN
SHOWERS ON MON AND TUE... BUT CONFIDENCE WITH IT IS LOW ATTM... SO
HAVE KEPT LOW POPS. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES ON WED INCREASING THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOR THIS DAY. TEMPS WILL NEAR NORMAL
SUN AND GRADUALLY INCREASING INTO HE LOW 90S FOR WED.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDS ACRS THE TERMINALS ATTM. SETUP SEEMS FVRBL FOR FOG
DVLPMNT ONCE AGN BTWN MIDNGT-DAWN. HWVR NOT AS MUCH WET GRND AS
PAST NGTS...WHICH IS COUNTERED BY HIER DEWPTS/LLVL HUMIDITY.
UNSURE EXACTLY HOW THESE TWO FACTORS WL BALANCE EACH OTHER. HV
OPTED TO KEEP PROLONGED MVFR CONDS OVNGT AT MRB...IFR AT CHO
WHERE SHRA WAS RECVD...AND ONLY BRIEF MVFR AT SUNRISE IAD/MTN. DO
NOT HV HIGH CONFIDENCE ATTM. CUD SEE FLGT CONDS WORSE THAN FCST
BUT WAS HESITANT ON OFFERING UP PROLONGED RESTRICTIONS.

FLGT RESTRICTIONS FOR THE MRNG PUSH WL ERODE BY MID MRNG. A CDFNT
WL CROSS THE TERMINALS DURING THE AFTN...AFFECTING THAT PUSH AS
WELL. SCT-NRMS SHRA/TSRA WL BE FOUND ALONG/AHD OF THE FNT. THINK
THERE WL BE SOME DIURNAL STRENGTHENING...AND AM CARRYING VCTS FOR
DC/BALT TERMINALS AS A RESULT. WUD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT IMPACT
AT CHO/MRB BUT PROBABILITY IS LESS. IN THE EVENT OF A DIRECT HIT
BRIEF AOB IFR CAN BE ANTICIPATED. TIMING/SPATIAL UNCERTANTIES
PRECLUDE CARRYING ANY SPECIFIC MENTION ATTM. WSHFT NEAR 18Z AT
MRB...SPREADING EAST TO 21-22Z DCA/BWI.

VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR
LESS...SHIFTING FROM THE NW FRIDAY TO A WESTERLY FLOW SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY WNDS SUSTAINED 10-15 KT ATTM. HWVR...SLY CHANNELING FCST TNGT
OVER THE MD BAY/LWR PTMC. MARGINAL WINDS /MAYBE JUST SHY OF ADVY/
FCST TO CONT THRU THE DAY THU...SPCLY AHD OF CDFNT. SCA ALREADY IN
PLACE. LOOKS SOLID TNGT...AND DO NOT HV CONFIDENCE TO REMOVE IT
FOR TMRW AT THIS JUNCTURE.

BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA GUSTS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ON THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY...WITH ALL WATERS BCMG SUB-SCA BY FRI AFT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
THEN LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LVLS RUNNING ABT A HALF FOOT ABV ASTRO NORMALS THIS EVENING.
HWVR...THERE IS STRONG CONSENSUS AMONGST WATER LVL MODELS THAT THE
UPCOMING HIGH TIDE WL ECLIPSE THE MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLD AT
ANNAPOLIS...WHICH HAS BEEN SUPPORTED BY LATEST RUNS. ONLY A SLGT
INCREASE IN THE CURRENT DEPARTURE WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BEAR THIS
OUT. HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE ADVY FOR AA COUNTY. HIGH TIDE AT APAM2
AT 5AM.

NO OTHER SITE IN JEOPARDY ATTM...ALTHO BALTIMORE CITY/COUNTY AND
WASD2 WL GET AWFULLY CLOSE. THE BALTIMORE HIGH TIDE RUNS BETWEEN
6-8 AM. AT SW DC HIGH TIDE IS APPROX 730 AM.

THE PM TIDE WILL BE THE LOWER OF THE TWO ASTRONOMICALLY. NW WINDS
THEREAFTER SUGGEST THE UPCOMING TIDE WILL BE THE ONLY ONE TO WATCH
CLOSELY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537-539>541-543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LFR/HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS/LFR
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...HTS/SEARS/IMR
MARINE...HTS/SEARS/IMR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300139
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
939 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY LESS HUMIDITY AND MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PREFRONTAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS WEAKENED MARKEDLY OVER THE
LAST FEW HOURS WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND FROM MOVING INTO A MORE
UNFAVORABLE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT. IT NOW CONSISTS OF MAINLY A
BROKEN LINE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS CONTINUE TO HUG THE RIDGES
IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA...BUT EXPECT THESE TO FALL APART/MOVE OFF
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ACTUAL FRONT IS STILL BACK NEAR
TOLEDO AND EXPECT IT TO ARRIVE NEAR PIT AROUND 12Z. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INSIST ON SOME DECENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVERNIGHT
WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHRA AHEAD OF THE FRONT
OCCASIONALLY.  WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE
RANGE...AND REDUCED THUNDER CHANCES TO SLIGHT. ANY SHOWERS COULD
YET PRODUCE A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN...GIVEN 10K+ WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS. TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WERE MAINLY JUST TWEAKED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR THURSDAY...

THURSDAY WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO NORMALS AND DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN TO THE
LOWER 60S/UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL TO OUR EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE IN ITS WAKE. THIS
MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK DOWN TOWARDS SEASONAL
VALUES...WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
FRIDAY...SPELLING A PLEASANT AND DRY START TO THE WEEKEND.

NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AREA OPEN TO SHORT-WAVE TROFS
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. PRIMARY WAVE LOOKS TO ARRIVE SATURDAY
MORNING...SKIRTING THE NORTHERN FLANKS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT POPS IN THE CHANCE REALM AS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
IS LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND...BUT DRY AIR ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL PRECLUDE POPS FOR SUNDAY. MID-LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE HEADING INTO
THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT AS IT CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT...WITH A RELATIVELY BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT PASSES. FRONT
SHOULD BE NEAR OR EAST OF LBE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ADDED MENTION
OF BR AT ZZV IN THE EARLY MORNING AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT.


OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300139
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
939 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY LESS HUMIDITY AND MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PREFRONTAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS WEAKENED MARKEDLY OVER THE
LAST FEW HOURS WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND FROM MOVING INTO A MORE
UNFAVORABLE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT. IT NOW CONSISTS OF MAINLY A
BROKEN LINE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS CONTINUE TO HUG THE RIDGES
IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA...BUT EXPECT THESE TO FALL APART/MOVE OFF
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ACTUAL FRONT IS STILL BACK NEAR
TOLEDO AND EXPECT IT TO ARRIVE NEAR PIT AROUND 12Z. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INSIST ON SOME DECENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVERNIGHT
WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHRA AHEAD OF THE FRONT
OCCASIONALLY.  WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE
RANGE...AND REDUCED THUNDER CHANCES TO SLIGHT. ANY SHOWERS COULD
YET PRODUCE A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN...GIVEN 10K+ WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS. TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WERE MAINLY JUST TWEAKED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR THURSDAY...

THURSDAY WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO NORMALS AND DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN TO THE
LOWER 60S/UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL TO OUR EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE IN ITS WAKE. THIS
MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK DOWN TOWARDS SEASONAL
VALUES...WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
FRIDAY...SPELLING A PLEASANT AND DRY START TO THE WEEKEND.

NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AREA OPEN TO SHORT-WAVE TROFS
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. PRIMARY WAVE LOOKS TO ARRIVE SATURDAY
MORNING...SKIRTING THE NORTHERN FLANKS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT POPS IN THE CHANCE REALM AS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
IS LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND...BUT DRY AIR ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL PRECLUDE POPS FOR SUNDAY. MID-LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE HEADING INTO
THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT AS IT CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT...WITH A RELATIVELY BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT PASSES. FRONT
SHOULD BE NEAR OR EAST OF LBE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ADDED MENTION
OF BR AT ZZV IN THE EARLY MORNING AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT.


OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KLWX 300050
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
850 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD FOR THE WEEKEND AND HOLD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PCPN CVRG HAS BEEN MUCH SPOTTIER...AND LIGHTER...THAN THIS TIME
YDA. WARM LYR BTWN H6-4 ON 00Z LWX RAOB LKLY THE REASON WHY. RDR
TRENDS SEEM TO HV BEEN CAPTURED BY THE HRRR QUITE WELL. STORMS E
OF THE BLURDG HV DSPTD...W/ ONLY A FEW CELLS IN THE PTMC
HIGHLANDS. IF LTST CYCLE OUTPUT VERIFIES...EVEN THIS ACTIVITY WL
ERODE BEFORE MIDNGT...W/ NOT MUCH GOING ON TIL NEW CELLS APPROACH
THE APLCNS PREDAWN. HV ADAPTED GRIDS TWD THIS DIRECTION...BUT HV
HELD ONTO LOW POPS IN THE MTNS. THAT CAN BE REEVALUATED.

NOT NEARLY AS MUCH WET GRND AS PAST CPL NGTS. HWVR A FAIR AMT OF
CLR SKIES AND DEWPTS IN THE LWR-MID 70S SUGGESTS THERE WL ONCE AGN
BE POTL FOR FOG DVLPMNT. HV KEPT IT PATCHY AND NOT DENSE DUE TO
REASONS MENTIONED ABV...SITUATED ALONG/W OF BLURDG AS WELL AS
ACRS NRN MD.

CDFNT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL ENTER THE FCST
AREA AROUND 18Z THU AND SHOULD CLEAR THE FCST AREA BY 03Z FRI.
FRONT WILL BE LOSING MUCH OF ITS PUNCH BUT IT APPEARS THERE COULD
BE A QUICK BAND OF -SHRA/TSRA RIGHT ALONG OR JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z MODEL SUITE HAS THE COLD FRONT PLACED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
CWA BY 12Z FRIDAY. ANY LINGERING PCPN WITH THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN
TO THE SOUTH AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS AND EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATES OVER THE WEEKEND. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST IN THE WAKE. THE REGION WILL REMAIN AT THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
BROAD CLOSED LOW OVER CANADA...WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING
THE LOW REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH. AS SUCH...EXPECTING DRY WX
FRI AND FRI NIGHT. 12Z GFS SUGGESTING LIGHT PCPN OVER NORTHEASTERN
AREAS OF THE CWA SAT AFTN WITH A SHORTWAVE JUST TO THE NORTH. WILL
KEEP THINGS DRY FOR NOW THOUGH DURING THIS TIME WITH LACK OF SFC
FORCING CURRENTLY NOTED.

QUICK SHOT OF CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY DROP 850MB
TEMPS TO AROUND 15 DEGREES CELSIUS...RESULTING IN HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 80S. THE COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE HIGH BUILDS
IN...WITH 850MB TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK TO NEAR 20 DEGREES CELSIUS BY
SAT AFTN. LOWS FRIDAY NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS NEARING 90 ON
SATURDAY. DEW PTS IN THE 60S SAT SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES WELL BELOW
ADVISORY LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN FOR SUN INTO MON WITH HIGH PRESS DOMINATING
CONDITIONS BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT LINGERS OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST AS IT WEAKENS... THEREFORE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS TO
THE SE AND E OF OUR CWA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING SOME AFTN
SHOWERS ON MON AND TUE... BUT CONFIDENCE WITH IT IS LOW ATTM... SO
HAVE KEPT LOW POPS. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES ON WED INCREASING THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOR THIS DAY. TEMPS WILL NEAR NORMAL
SUN AND GRADUALLY INCREASING INTO HE LOW 90S FOR WED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDS ACRS THE TERMINALS ATTM. SETUP SEEMS FVRBL FOR FOG
DVLPMNT ONCE AGN BTWN MIDNGT-DAWN. HWVR NOT AS MUCH WET GRND AS
PAST NGTS...WHICH IS COUNTERED BY HIER DEWPTS/LLVL HUMIDITY.
UNSURE EXACTLY HOW THESE TWO FACTORS WL BALANCE EACH OTHER. HV
OPTED TO KEEP PROLONGED MVFR CONDS OVNGT AT MRB...IFR AT CHO
WHERE SHRA WAS RECVD...AND ONLY BRIEF MVFR AT SUNRISE IAD/MTN. DO
NOT HV HIGH CONFIDENCE ATTM. CUD SEE FLGT CONDS WORSE THAN FCST
BUT WAS HESITANT ON OFFERING UP PROLONGED RESTRICTIONS.

FLGT RESTRICTIONS FOR THE MRNG PUSH WL ERODE BY MID MRNG. A CDFNT
WL CROSS THE TERMINALS DURING THE AFTN...AFFECTING THAT PUSH AS
WELL. SCT-NRMS SHRA/TSRA WL BE FOUND ALONG/AHD OF THE FNT. THINK
THERE WL BE SOME DIURNAL STRENGTHENING...AND AM CARRYING VCTS FOR
DC/BALT TERMINALS AS A RESULT. WUD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT IMPACT
AT CHO/MRB BUT PROBABILITY IS LESS. IN THE EVENT OF A DIRECT HIT
BRIEF AOB IFR CAN BE ANTICIPATED. TIMING/SPATIAL UNCERTANTIES
PRECLUDE CARRYING ANY SPECIFIC MENTION ATTM. WSHFT NEAR 18Z AT
MRB...SPREADING EAST TO 21-22Z DCA/BWI.

VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR
LESS...SHIFTING FROM THE NW FRIDAY TO A WESTERLY FLOW SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY WNDS SUSTAINED 10-15 KT ATTM. HWVR...SLY CHANNELING FCST TNGT
OVER THE MD BAY/LWR PTMC. MARGINAL WINDS /MAYBE JUST SHY OF ADVY/
FCST TO CONT THRU THE DAY THU...SPCLY AHD OF CDFNT. SCA ALREADY IN
PLACE. LOOKS SOLID TNGT...AND DO NOT HV CONFIDENCE TO REMOVE IT
FOR TMRW AT THIS JUNCTURE.

BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA GUSTS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ON THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY...WITH ALL WATERS BCMG SUB-SCA BY FRI AFT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
THEN LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LVLS RUNNING ABT A HALF FOOT ABV ASTRO NORMALS THIS EVENING.
HWVR...THERE IS STRONG CONSENSUS AMONGST WATER LVL MODELS THAT THE
UPCOMING HIGH TIDE WL ECLIPSE THE MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLD AT
ANNAPOLIS. ONLY A SLGT INCREASE IN THE CURRENT DEPARTURE WOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO BEAR THIS OUT. HIGH TIDE AT APAM2 AT 5AM. WL BE
AWAITING THE LATEST GUIDANCE. CONSISTENCY SUGGESTS THAT AN ADVY
MAY BE WARRANTED.

NO OTHER SITE IN JEOPARDY ATTM...ALTHO WASD2 WL GET AWFULLY CLOSE
FOR 730 AM HIGH TIDE.

THE PM TIDE WILL BE THE LOWER OF THE TWO ASTRONOMICALLY. NW WINDS
THEREAFTER SUGGEST THE UPCOMING TIDE WILL BE THE ONLY ONE TO WATCH
CLOSELY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537-539>541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR/HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS/LFR
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...HTS/SEARS/IMR
MARINE...HTS/SEARS/IMR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 300050
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
850 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD FOR THE WEEKEND AND HOLD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PCPN CVRG HAS BEEN MUCH SPOTTIER...AND LIGHTER...THAN THIS TIME
YDA. WARM LYR BTWN H6-4 ON 00Z LWX RAOB LKLY THE REASON WHY. RDR
TRENDS SEEM TO HV BEEN CAPTURED BY THE HRRR QUITE WELL. STORMS E
OF THE BLURDG HV DSPTD...W/ ONLY A FEW CELLS IN THE PTMC
HIGHLANDS. IF LTST CYCLE OUTPUT VERIFIES...EVEN THIS ACTIVITY WL
ERODE BEFORE MIDNGT...W/ NOT MUCH GOING ON TIL NEW CELLS APPROACH
THE APLCNS PREDAWN. HV ADAPTED GRIDS TWD THIS DIRECTION...BUT HV
HELD ONTO LOW POPS IN THE MTNS. THAT CAN BE REEVALUATED.

NOT NEARLY AS MUCH WET GRND AS PAST CPL NGTS. HWVR A FAIR AMT OF
CLR SKIES AND DEWPTS IN THE LWR-MID 70S SUGGESTS THERE WL ONCE AGN
BE POTL FOR FOG DVLPMNT. HV KEPT IT PATCHY AND NOT DENSE DUE TO
REASONS MENTIONED ABV...SITUATED ALONG/W OF BLURDG AS WELL AS
ACRS NRN MD.

CDFNT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL ENTER THE FCST
AREA AROUND 18Z THU AND SHOULD CLEAR THE FCST AREA BY 03Z FRI.
FRONT WILL BE LOSING MUCH OF ITS PUNCH BUT IT APPEARS THERE COULD
BE A QUICK BAND OF -SHRA/TSRA RIGHT ALONG OR JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z MODEL SUITE HAS THE COLD FRONT PLACED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
CWA BY 12Z FRIDAY. ANY LINGERING PCPN WITH THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN
TO THE SOUTH AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS AND EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATES OVER THE WEEKEND. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST IN THE WAKE. THE REGION WILL REMAIN AT THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
BROAD CLOSED LOW OVER CANADA...WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING
THE LOW REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH. AS SUCH...EXPECTING DRY WX
FRI AND FRI NIGHT. 12Z GFS SUGGESTING LIGHT PCPN OVER NORTHEASTERN
AREAS OF THE CWA SAT AFTN WITH A SHORTWAVE JUST TO THE NORTH. WILL
KEEP THINGS DRY FOR NOW THOUGH DURING THIS TIME WITH LACK OF SFC
FORCING CURRENTLY NOTED.

QUICK SHOT OF CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY DROP 850MB
TEMPS TO AROUND 15 DEGREES CELSIUS...RESULTING IN HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 80S. THE COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE HIGH BUILDS
IN...WITH 850MB TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK TO NEAR 20 DEGREES CELSIUS BY
SAT AFTN. LOWS FRIDAY NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS NEARING 90 ON
SATURDAY. DEW PTS IN THE 60S SAT SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES WELL BELOW
ADVISORY LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN FOR SUN INTO MON WITH HIGH PRESS DOMINATING
CONDITIONS BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT LINGERS OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST AS IT WEAKENS... THEREFORE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS TO
THE SE AND E OF OUR CWA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING SOME AFTN
SHOWERS ON MON AND TUE... BUT CONFIDENCE WITH IT IS LOW ATTM... SO
HAVE KEPT LOW POPS. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES ON WED INCREASING THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOR THIS DAY. TEMPS WILL NEAR NORMAL
SUN AND GRADUALLY INCREASING INTO HE LOW 90S FOR WED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDS ACRS THE TERMINALS ATTM. SETUP SEEMS FVRBL FOR FOG
DVLPMNT ONCE AGN BTWN MIDNGT-DAWN. HWVR NOT AS MUCH WET GRND AS
PAST NGTS...WHICH IS COUNTERED BY HIER DEWPTS/LLVL HUMIDITY.
UNSURE EXACTLY HOW THESE TWO FACTORS WL BALANCE EACH OTHER. HV
OPTED TO KEEP PROLONGED MVFR CONDS OVNGT AT MRB...IFR AT CHO
WHERE SHRA WAS RECVD...AND ONLY BRIEF MVFR AT SUNRISE IAD/MTN. DO
NOT HV HIGH CONFIDENCE ATTM. CUD SEE FLGT CONDS WORSE THAN FCST
BUT WAS HESITANT ON OFFERING UP PROLONGED RESTRICTIONS.

FLGT RESTRICTIONS FOR THE MRNG PUSH WL ERODE BY MID MRNG. A CDFNT
WL CROSS THE TERMINALS DURING THE AFTN...AFFECTING THAT PUSH AS
WELL. SCT-NRMS SHRA/TSRA WL BE FOUND ALONG/AHD OF THE FNT. THINK
THERE WL BE SOME DIURNAL STRENGTHENING...AND AM CARRYING VCTS FOR
DC/BALT TERMINALS AS A RESULT. WUD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT IMPACT
AT CHO/MRB BUT PROBABILITY IS LESS. IN THE EVENT OF A DIRECT HIT
BRIEF AOB IFR CAN BE ANTICIPATED. TIMING/SPATIAL UNCERTANTIES
PRECLUDE CARRYING ANY SPECIFIC MENTION ATTM. WSHFT NEAR 18Z AT
MRB...SPREADING EAST TO 21-22Z DCA/BWI.

VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR
LESS...SHIFTING FROM THE NW FRIDAY TO A WESTERLY FLOW SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY WNDS SUSTAINED 10-15 KT ATTM. HWVR...SLY CHANNELING FCST TNGT
OVER THE MD BAY/LWR PTMC. MARGINAL WINDS /MAYBE JUST SHY OF ADVY/
FCST TO CONT THRU THE DAY THU...SPCLY AHD OF CDFNT. SCA ALREADY IN
PLACE. LOOKS SOLID TNGT...AND DO NOT HV CONFIDENCE TO REMOVE IT
FOR TMRW AT THIS JUNCTURE.

BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA GUSTS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ON THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY...WITH ALL WATERS BCMG SUB-SCA BY FRI AFT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
THEN LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LVLS RUNNING ABT A HALF FOOT ABV ASTRO NORMALS THIS EVENING.
HWVR...THERE IS STRONG CONSENSUS AMONGST WATER LVL MODELS THAT THE
UPCOMING HIGH TIDE WL ECLIPSE THE MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLD AT
ANNAPOLIS. ONLY A SLGT INCREASE IN THE CURRENT DEPARTURE WOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO BEAR THIS OUT. HIGH TIDE AT APAM2 AT 5AM. WL BE
AWAITING THE LATEST GUIDANCE. CONSISTENCY SUGGESTS THAT AN ADVY
MAY BE WARRANTED.

NO OTHER SITE IN JEOPARDY ATTM...ALTHO WASD2 WL GET AWFULLY CLOSE
FOR 730 AM HIGH TIDE.

THE PM TIDE WILL BE THE LOWER OF THE TWO ASTRONOMICALLY. NW WINDS
THEREAFTER SUGGEST THE UPCOMING TIDE WILL BE THE ONLY ONE TO WATCH
CLOSELY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537-539>541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR/HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS/LFR
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...HTS/SEARS/IMR
MARINE...HTS/SEARS/IMR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS



000
FXUS61 KPHI 300045
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
845 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A POTENTIALLY
STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED PRECIP HAS ENDED ACRS THE DELMARVA.

MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT SOME REMNANT
CONVECTION FROM VIRGINIA AND VICINITY WILL DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE
INDICATED AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AT THAT TIME.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY WARM AND HUMID OVERNIGHT. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND.

MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO CURRENT FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BEGIN WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY ALONG WITH
SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS. THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FOR
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST
ARRIVES IN OUR REGION.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 200 TO 300 PM ON
THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD,
REACHING THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR ABOUT 400 PM TO 500 PM AND THE
COAST TOWARD 700 PM. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. ALSO, SOME OF THE MORE WELL DEVELOPED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING STRONG WIND GUSTS.

WE ARE EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 DEGREES IN MUCH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE AIR WILL REMAIN VERY HUMID AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
SHOULD REACH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S BEFORE THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE. AS A RESULT, WE WILL KEEP THE EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM THURSDAY FOR OUR HIGHLY
URBANIZED AREAS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 MPH IS ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERVIEW...

A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WILL MAINTAIN A TROUGH
IN THE EAST CONUS AND A GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING S/WV ENERGY
ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY...AND TO WHAT EXTENT THE
TROUGH AMPLIFIES AS A RESULT. THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE
GFS...WHICH RESULTS IN MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE
REGION...ASSOCIATED WITH LOW- PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT IN THE GMEX. A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY HERE AT THE D+5 TIME FRAME. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIP WILL BE WITH A COLD FROPA ON SAT...AND ANOTHER LATE
TUE/EARLY WED. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE...AS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT INVOF THE OUTER BANKS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN CHCS FOR SHRA/TSRA THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT OVER
DELMARVA. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES
AND SLOW STORM MOTION...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY DOWN-
POURS. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

FRI...S/WV RIDGING ALOFT ALONG WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL
RESULT IN A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS MAY BE OUT OF
REACH...SO EVEN CU MAY BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. THE GRADIENT
MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR A SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE
AFTN. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 80S W/ L90S IN DELMARVA ALONG
WITH A NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID AIR MASS.

SAT THRU SUN...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LEHIGH
VALLEY AND POCONOS LATE SAT AFTN/EARLY EVE...THEN SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE COASTLINE SAT NIGHT. S/WV TROUGH ALOFT WILL LEAD
TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO THE REGION POOLS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND PROVIDES A
SOURCE OF LIFT. ML CAPE IS MODELED AROUND 1.5 KJ...WHILE
BULK SHEAR APPROACHES 40 KNOTS. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS ARE
MOST FAVORABLE OVER THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND POCONOS. ATTM...
MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE GUSTY WINDS...WITH INVERTED-V MODEL
SOUNDINGS...AS WELL AS D-CAPE APPROACHING 1.4 KJ. HAIL IS
ALSO A THREAT...AS WBZ VALUES FALL BLW 10 KFT IN THE AFTN....
AS WELL AS H50 TEMPS AROUND -12C. OTHERWISE...A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY IS ANTICIPATED. SUN...S/WV RIDGING
ALOFT AS HIGH PRES BRIEFLY BUILDS IN BEHIND DEPARTING COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL PROMOTE A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY.

MON THRU WED...THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. THE OUTCOME HINGES ON JUST HOW MUCH THE EAST
COAST TROUGH AMPLIFIES...WHICH WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR
NOT GULF MOISTURE MAKES IT THIS FAR NORTH ON MON/TUE.
SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE MON...W/
A BETTER CHANCE WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT TUE.
THE FRONT MAY SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES THRU THE REGION...
SO WED MAY BE UNSETTLED.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.


MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD
OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. SOME MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP AROUND KRDG
AND KABE. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO OUR NORTH
AND NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE OVERNIGHT PRECIP CHCS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS OUR EIGHT TAF SITES FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN ABOUT 1900Z AND 2300Z. THERE ARE
STILL SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING TIMING. LATER SHIFTS CAN REFINE.

A SOUTHWEST WIND AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS INTO THIS EVENING SHOULD DECREASE
TO 6 KNOTS OR LESS FOR TONIGHT. A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 8 TO 10
KNOTS IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT AND FRI...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR PATCHY
GROUND FOG IN THE 06Z-12Z FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE SAT EVE AND
EARLY SAT NIGHT IN SHRA/TSRA.

SUN AND MON...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE FOR TONIGHT.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
THURSDAY. A SOUTH SOUTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WAVE HEIGHTS
ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD TO AROUND 4 FEET. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN JUST BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI THRU MON...SUB-SCA WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS BEING FORECAST FOR THURSDAY,
WITH INCREASING S TO SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE CDFNT AND THE FULL
MOON ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ070-071-
     102-104-106.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ015-
     017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/IOVINO
MARINE...FRANCK/GORSE/IOVINO




000
FXUS61 KPHI 300045
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
845 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A POTENTIALLY
STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED PRECIP HAS ENDED ACRS THE DELMARVA.

MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT SOME REMNANT
CONVECTION FROM VIRGINIA AND VICINITY WILL DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE
INDICATED AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AT THAT TIME.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY WARM AND HUMID OVERNIGHT. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND.

MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO CURRENT FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BEGIN WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY ALONG WITH
SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS. THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FOR
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST
ARRIVES IN OUR REGION.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 200 TO 300 PM ON
THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD,
REACHING THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR ABOUT 400 PM TO 500 PM AND THE
COAST TOWARD 700 PM. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. ALSO, SOME OF THE MORE WELL DEVELOPED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING STRONG WIND GUSTS.

WE ARE EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 DEGREES IN MUCH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE AIR WILL REMAIN VERY HUMID AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
SHOULD REACH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S BEFORE THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE. AS A RESULT, WE WILL KEEP THE EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM THURSDAY FOR OUR HIGHLY
URBANIZED AREAS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 MPH IS ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERVIEW...

A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WILL MAINTAIN A TROUGH
IN THE EAST CONUS AND A GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING S/WV ENERGY
ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY...AND TO WHAT EXTENT THE
TROUGH AMPLIFIES AS A RESULT. THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE
GFS...WHICH RESULTS IN MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE
REGION...ASSOCIATED WITH LOW- PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT IN THE GMEX. A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY HERE AT THE D+5 TIME FRAME. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIP WILL BE WITH A COLD FROPA ON SAT...AND ANOTHER LATE
TUE/EARLY WED. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE...AS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT INVOF THE OUTER BANKS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN CHCS FOR SHRA/TSRA THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT OVER
DELMARVA. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES
AND SLOW STORM MOTION...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY DOWN-
POURS. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

FRI...S/WV RIDGING ALOFT ALONG WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL
RESULT IN A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS MAY BE OUT OF
REACH...SO EVEN CU MAY BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. THE GRADIENT
MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR A SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE
AFTN. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 80S W/ L90S IN DELMARVA ALONG
WITH A NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID AIR MASS.

SAT THRU SUN...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LEHIGH
VALLEY AND POCONOS LATE SAT AFTN/EARLY EVE...THEN SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE COASTLINE SAT NIGHT. S/WV TROUGH ALOFT WILL LEAD
TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO THE REGION POOLS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND PROVIDES A
SOURCE OF LIFT. ML CAPE IS MODELED AROUND 1.5 KJ...WHILE
BULK SHEAR APPROACHES 40 KNOTS. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS ARE
MOST FAVORABLE OVER THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND POCONOS. ATTM...
MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE GUSTY WINDS...WITH INVERTED-V MODEL
SOUNDINGS...AS WELL AS D-CAPE APPROACHING 1.4 KJ. HAIL IS
ALSO A THREAT...AS WBZ VALUES FALL BLW 10 KFT IN THE AFTN....
AS WELL AS H50 TEMPS AROUND -12C. OTHERWISE...A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY IS ANTICIPATED. SUN...S/WV RIDGING
ALOFT AS HIGH PRES BRIEFLY BUILDS IN BEHIND DEPARTING COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL PROMOTE A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY.

MON THRU WED...THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. THE OUTCOME HINGES ON JUST HOW MUCH THE EAST
COAST TROUGH AMPLIFIES...WHICH WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR
NOT GULF MOISTURE MAKES IT THIS FAR NORTH ON MON/TUE.
SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE MON...W/
A BETTER CHANCE WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT TUE.
THE FRONT MAY SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES THRU THE REGION...
SO WED MAY BE UNSETTLED.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.


MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD
OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. SOME MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP AROUND KRDG
AND KABE. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO OUR NORTH
AND NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE OVERNIGHT PRECIP CHCS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS OUR EIGHT TAF SITES FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN ABOUT 1900Z AND 2300Z. THERE ARE
STILL SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING TIMING. LATER SHIFTS CAN REFINE.

A SOUTHWEST WIND AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS INTO THIS EVENING SHOULD DECREASE
TO 6 KNOTS OR LESS FOR TONIGHT. A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 8 TO 10
KNOTS IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT AND FRI...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR PATCHY
GROUND FOG IN THE 06Z-12Z FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE SAT EVE AND
EARLY SAT NIGHT IN SHRA/TSRA.

SUN AND MON...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE FOR TONIGHT.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
THURSDAY. A SOUTH SOUTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WAVE HEIGHTS
ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD TO AROUND 4 FEET. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN JUST BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI THRU MON...SUB-SCA WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS BEING FORECAST FOR THURSDAY,
WITH INCREASING S TO SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE CDFNT AND THE FULL
MOON ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ070-071-
     102-104-106.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ015-
     017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/IOVINO
MARINE...FRANCK/GORSE/IOVINO



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300005
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
805 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY SHWRS/TSTMS POPPED EARLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA (SAVE FAR SE VA AND NE NC). THIS ACTIVITY IS MAINLY DRIVEN
BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG A PIEDMONT
TROUGH/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY. LITTLE TO NO SUPPORT FOR
STRONG/SVR TSTMS GIVEN LACK OF SHEAR AND NO DISCERNIBLE UPR
FEATURES TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE STILL HAS
PCPN WANING BY 5-7 PM (DUE TO LOSS OF PEAK HEATING) AND THE
FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO THAT TREND. WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS
30-40% THRU ABOUT 6 PM FROM THE EASTERN PIEDMONT TO THE NORTHERN
NECK/EASTERN SHORE. SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE SE...EXCEPT
REMAINING DRY SOUTHSIDE HAMPTON ROADS/VA BEACH/NORTHERN OBX.
SEASONABLY WARM/HUMID TONIGHT AFTER ANY EVENING PCPN DIMINISHES.
LOW TEMPS 70-75F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...
UPR RIDGING RETROGRADES A BIT AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY
LATE IN THE DAY. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...CHC POPS
(30-50%) WILL REMAIN ACROSS NNW AREAS DURING THE AFTN...LOWERING TO
10-20% ACROSS FAR SE VA/COASTAL NE NC. PARTLY SUNNY WITH HIGH TEMPS
IN THE LOW 90S...EXCEPT MID/UPR 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE PUSHING
SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY. HAVE CHC POPS
(30-50%) MOST AREAS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY
FRI MORN. PCPN QUICKLY PUSHES SOUTH/EAST BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING...SO THAT MOST PLACES WILL BE DRY ON FRIDAY. DID MAINTAIN
20-30% POPS ACROSS SE AREAS...HOWEVER...EVEN THAT THREAT IS
PRIMARILY THRU THE EARLY AFTN BEFORE THINGS DRY OUT. THIS IS A
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS AS THE FRONT NOW LOOKS LIKE IT
PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH AND QUICKER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. LOW
TEMPS THU NGT IN THE UPR 60S NW TO THE MID 70S SE. HIGH TEMPS FRI
IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
LATEST GUIDANCE NOW HAS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT STALLING FARTHER
SOUTH ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND BECAUSE
OF A MORE PRONOUNCED UPR TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST. THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. HIGHS SAT IN
THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SW
CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTING ACRS HUDSON BAY CANADA.
GFS/ECMWF INTO BETTER DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT...THEN FLATTEN
OUT SUN WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACRS THE MID ATLC BY MON.

FRONT STALLS AND DISSIPATES OVER FAR SRN VA/NC SAT NIGHT. BEST
CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH/MAINLY NE NC THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BUT EVEN HERE WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20-30% POPS/PRIMARILY
FOR THE AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME ON SUN/TAPERED TO 20% FAR SRN VA
AND DRY ELSEWHERE). WILL MAINTAIN 30-40% POPS NE NC FOR MON DUE
TO THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AS
THIS IS 5 DAYS OUT...POPS AROUND 20% NORTH. KEEPING POPS AROUND
20% ALL AREAS TUE. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE MID 80S/AROUND 90 F ALONG THE
COAST TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND. LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
MID 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...THERE IS NO PCPN TO DEAL WITH THE REST OF THE EVENING. A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY PREVAILED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
EAST TO SOUTH WINDS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT AT AROUND 10 KNOTS OR
LESS. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT FOG.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THURSDAY. EXPECT INCREASING
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ESPECIALLY N/W PORTIONS. THERE WILL BE A
CHC FOR TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY BUT NO PCPN IS MENTIONED IN THE FCST.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE S/SW AT AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS TO AROUND 15 TO 18 KNOTS PSBL.

OUTLOOK...A CHC FOR TSTMS CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL END
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON FRIDAY. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS INDICATED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHC FOR TSTMS MAINLY SOUTH ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM THROUGH THU...ALTHOUGH AS SFC/LEE
TROF OVER VA DEEPENS SLIGHTLY AND HELPS S/SE WINDS AVG NEAR 15 KT
IN THE CHES BAY THERE COULD BE A FEW HRS WORTH OF 20 KT GUSTS IN
THE BAY...BUT TOO MARGINAL TO CONSIDER ANY SCA HEADLINES FOR NOW.
WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT IN THE BAY...BUT WILL PROBABLY BLD TO 2-3
FT LATER THIS EVENG. SEAS 2-3 FT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WTRS LATE THU...THEN STALLS
SSE OF THE AREA BY LATE FRI. S/SE WINDS AVG 10-15 KT...TURNING
SSW THU NGT. NOT A STRONG COOL SURGE ON FRI...AS WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NNE FRI MORNG INTO FRI AFTN...THEN TURN TO THE ESE BY LATE IN
THE DAY. WINDS THEN TURN BACK TO THE SSW FOR FRI NGT AND SAT...AS
THE FRONT DISSIPATES SSE OF THE REGION. WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LKB



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300005
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
805 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY SHWRS/TSTMS POPPED EARLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA (SAVE FAR SE VA AND NE NC). THIS ACTIVITY IS MAINLY DRIVEN
BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG A PIEDMONT
TROUGH/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY. LITTLE TO NO SUPPORT FOR
STRONG/SVR TSTMS GIVEN LACK OF SHEAR AND NO DISCERNIBLE UPR
FEATURES TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE STILL HAS
PCPN WANING BY 5-7 PM (DUE TO LOSS OF PEAK HEATING) AND THE
FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO THAT TREND. WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS
30-40% THRU ABOUT 6 PM FROM THE EASTERN PIEDMONT TO THE NORTHERN
NECK/EASTERN SHORE. SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE SE...EXCEPT
REMAINING DRY SOUTHSIDE HAMPTON ROADS/VA BEACH/NORTHERN OBX.
SEASONABLY WARM/HUMID TONIGHT AFTER ANY EVENING PCPN DIMINISHES.
LOW TEMPS 70-75F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...
UPR RIDGING RETROGRADES A BIT AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY
LATE IN THE DAY. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...CHC POPS
(30-50%) WILL REMAIN ACROSS NNW AREAS DURING THE AFTN...LOWERING TO
10-20% ACROSS FAR SE VA/COASTAL NE NC. PARTLY SUNNY WITH HIGH TEMPS
IN THE LOW 90S...EXCEPT MID/UPR 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE PUSHING
SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY. HAVE CHC POPS
(30-50%) MOST AREAS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY
FRI MORN. PCPN QUICKLY PUSHES SOUTH/EAST BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING...SO THAT MOST PLACES WILL BE DRY ON FRIDAY. DID MAINTAIN
20-30% POPS ACROSS SE AREAS...HOWEVER...EVEN THAT THREAT IS
PRIMARILY THRU THE EARLY AFTN BEFORE THINGS DRY OUT. THIS IS A
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS AS THE FRONT NOW LOOKS LIKE IT
PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH AND QUICKER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. LOW
TEMPS THU NGT IN THE UPR 60S NW TO THE MID 70S SE. HIGH TEMPS FRI
IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
LATEST GUIDANCE NOW HAS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT STALLING FARTHER
SOUTH ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND BECAUSE
OF A MORE PRONOUNCED UPR TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST. THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. HIGHS SAT IN
THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SW
CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTING ACRS HUDSON BAY CANADA.
GFS/ECMWF INTO BETTER DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT...THEN FLATTEN
OUT SUN WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACRS THE MID ATLC BY MON.

FRONT STALLS AND DISSIPATES OVER FAR SRN VA/NC SAT NIGHT. BEST
CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH/MAINLY NE NC THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BUT EVEN HERE WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20-30% POPS/PRIMARILY
FOR THE AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME ON SUN/TAPERED TO 20% FAR SRN VA
AND DRY ELSEWHERE). WILL MAINTAIN 30-40% POPS NE NC FOR MON DUE
TO THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AS
THIS IS 5 DAYS OUT...POPS AROUND 20% NORTH. KEEPING POPS AROUND
20% ALL AREAS TUE. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE MID 80S/AROUND 90 F ALONG THE
COAST TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND. LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
MID 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...THERE IS NO PCPN TO DEAL WITH THE REST OF THE EVENING. A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY PREVAILED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
EAST TO SOUTH WINDS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT AT AROUND 10 KNOTS OR
LESS. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT FOG.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THURSDAY. EXPECT INCREASING
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ESPECIALLY N/W PORTIONS. THERE WILL BE A
CHC FOR TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY BUT NO PCPN IS MENTIONED IN THE FCST.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE S/SW AT AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS TO AROUND 15 TO 18 KNOTS PSBL.

OUTLOOK...A CHC FOR TSTMS CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL END
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON FRIDAY. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS INDICATED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHC FOR TSTMS MAINLY SOUTH ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM THROUGH THU...ALTHOUGH AS SFC/LEE
TROF OVER VA DEEPENS SLIGHTLY AND HELPS S/SE WINDS AVG NEAR 15 KT
IN THE CHES BAY THERE COULD BE A FEW HRS WORTH OF 20 KT GUSTS IN
THE BAY...BUT TOO MARGINAL TO CONSIDER ANY SCA HEADLINES FOR NOW.
WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT IN THE BAY...BUT WILL PROBABLY BLD TO 2-3
FT LATER THIS EVENG. SEAS 2-3 FT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WTRS LATE THU...THEN STALLS
SSE OF THE AREA BY LATE FRI. S/SE WINDS AVG 10-15 KT...TURNING
SSW THU NGT. NOT A STRONG COOL SURGE ON FRI...AS WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NNE FRI MORNG INTO FRI AFTN...THEN TURN TO THE ESE BY LATE IN
THE DAY. WINDS THEN TURN BACK TO THE SSW FOR FRI NGT AND SAT...AS
THE FRONT DISSIPATES SSE OF THE REGION. WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LKB




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 292327
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
727 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY LESS HUMIDITY AND MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
600 PM...MINOR TIMING EDITS TO GRIDS WITH POPS AND SKY...MAINLY TO
SLOW DOWN PRECIP ARRIVAL AN HOUR OR TWO GIVEN CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS. CHANCE POPS STILL LOOK APPROPRIATE...AS FURTHER WEAKENING
OF THE PREFRONTAL LINE IS ANTICIPATED WITH INSTABILITY LOSS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KEPT THUNDER THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR NOW BUT
WILL REEVALUATE THIS DURING THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ON
TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

DESPITE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE PROVIDING AN
AMPLE AMOUNT OF CAPE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...VERY WARM AIR ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
A LINE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING THE FROM THE WEST CURRENTLY RUNNING ALONG THE OHIO
INDIANA BORDER IS PROGGED TO REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING...BUT BY THIS TIME INSTABILITY FROM
DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AND DO NOT FORESEE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXTENDING MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN
ZANESVILLE...BEFORE DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT AND LEAVING MAINLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES EAST
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OVERNIGHT COLD FRONT ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. THE ONE THING TO KEEP IN
MIND THOUGH WILL BE RAIN RATES LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WHEN THERE IS DEEPER MOISTURE AS THE SETUP LOOKS TO FAVOR WARM
RAIN PROCESSES TO DOMINATE...SO ANY AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN WILL BE
NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POTENTIAL WATER CONCERNS.

THURSDAY WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO NORMALS AND DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN TO
THE LOWER 60S/UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL TO OUR EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE IN ITS WAKE. THIS
MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK DOWN TOWARDS SEASONAL
VALUES...WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
FRIDAY...SPELLING A PLEASANT AND DRY START TO THE WEEKEND.

NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AREA OPEN TO SHORT-WAVE TROFS
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. PRIMARY WAVE LOOKS TO ARRIVE SATURDAY
MORNING...SKIRTING THE NORTHERN FLANKS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT POPS IN THE CHANCE REALM AS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
IS LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND...BUT DRY AIR ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL PRECLUDE POPS FOR SUNDAY. MID-LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE HEADING INTO
THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT AS IT CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT...WITH A RELATIVELY BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT PASSES. FRONT
SHOULD BE NEAR OR EAST OF LBE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ADDED MENTION
OF BR AT ZZV IN THE EARLY MORNING AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT.


OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 292327
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
727 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY LESS HUMIDITY AND MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
600 PM...MINOR TIMING EDITS TO GRIDS WITH POPS AND SKY...MAINLY TO
SLOW DOWN PRECIP ARRIVAL AN HOUR OR TWO GIVEN CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS. CHANCE POPS STILL LOOK APPROPRIATE...AS FURTHER WEAKENING
OF THE PREFRONTAL LINE IS ANTICIPATED WITH INSTABILITY LOSS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KEPT THUNDER THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR NOW BUT
WILL REEVALUATE THIS DURING THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ON
TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

DESPITE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE PROVIDING AN
AMPLE AMOUNT OF CAPE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...VERY WARM AIR ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
A LINE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING THE FROM THE WEST CURRENTLY RUNNING ALONG THE OHIO
INDIANA BORDER IS PROGGED TO REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING...BUT BY THIS TIME INSTABILITY FROM
DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AND DO NOT FORESEE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXTENDING MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN
ZANESVILLE...BEFORE DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT AND LEAVING MAINLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES EAST
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OVERNIGHT COLD FRONT ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. THE ONE THING TO KEEP IN
MIND THOUGH WILL BE RAIN RATES LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WHEN THERE IS DEEPER MOISTURE AS THE SETUP LOOKS TO FAVOR WARM
RAIN PROCESSES TO DOMINATE...SO ANY AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN WILL BE
NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POTENTIAL WATER CONCERNS.

THURSDAY WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO NORMALS AND DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN TO
THE LOWER 60S/UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL TO OUR EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE IN ITS WAKE. THIS
MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK DOWN TOWARDS SEASONAL
VALUES...WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
FRIDAY...SPELLING A PLEASANT AND DRY START TO THE WEEKEND.

NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AREA OPEN TO SHORT-WAVE TROFS
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. PRIMARY WAVE LOOKS TO ARRIVE SATURDAY
MORNING...SKIRTING THE NORTHERN FLANKS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT POPS IN THE CHANCE REALM AS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
IS LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND...BUT DRY AIR ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL PRECLUDE POPS FOR SUNDAY. MID-LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE HEADING INTO
THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT AS IT CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT...WITH A RELATIVELY BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT PASSES. FRONT
SHOULD BE NEAR OR EAST OF LBE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ADDED MENTION
OF BR AT ZZV IN THE EARLY MORNING AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT.


OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 292203
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
603 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY LESS HUMIDITY AND MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
600 PM...MINOR TIMING EDITS TO GRIDS WITH POPS AND SKY...MAINLY TO
SLOW DOWN PRECIP ARRIVAL AN HOUR OR TWO GIVEN CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS. CHANCE POPS STILL LOOK APPROPRIATE...AS FURTHER WEAKENING
OF THE PREFRONTAL LINE IS ANTICIPATED WITH INSTABILITY LOSS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KEPT THUNDER THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR NOW BUT
WILL REEVALUATE THIS DURING THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ON
TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

DESPITE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE PROVIDING AN
AMPLE AMOUNT OF CAPE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...VERY WARM AIR ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
A LINE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING THE FROM THE WEST CURRENTLY RUNNING ALONG THE OHIO
INDIANA BORDER IS PROGGED TO REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING...BUT BY THIS TIME INSTABILITY FROM
DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AND DO NOT FORESEE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXTENDING MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN
ZANESVILLE...BEFORE DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT AND LEAVING MAINLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES EAST
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OVERNIGHT COLD FRONT ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. THE ONE THING TO KEEP IN
MIND THOUGH WILL BE RAIN RATES LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WHEN THERE IS DEEPER MOISTURE AS THE SETUP LOOKS TO FAVOR WARM
RAIN PROCESSES TO DOMINATE...SO ANY AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN WILL BE
NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POTENTIAL WATER CONCERNS.

THURSDAY WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO NORMALS AND DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN TO
THE LOWER 60S/UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL TO OUR EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE IN ITS WAKE. THIS
MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK DOWN TOWARDS SEASONAL
VALUES...WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
FRIDAY...SPELLING A PLEASANT AND DRY START TO THE WEEKEND.

NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AREA OPEN TO SHORT-WAVE TROFS
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. PRIMARY WAVE LOOKS TO ARRIVE SATURDAY
MORNING...SKIRTING THE NORTHERN FLANKS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT POPS IN THE CHANCE REALM AS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
IS LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND...BUT DRY AIR ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL PRECLUDE POPS FOR SUNDAY. MID-LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE HEADING INTO
THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT AS IT CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN VFR THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT...WITH
A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS THE
FRONT PASSES. FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR OR EAST OF LBE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE.


OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 292203
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
603 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY LESS HUMIDITY AND MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
600 PM...MINOR TIMING EDITS TO GRIDS WITH POPS AND SKY...MAINLY TO
SLOW DOWN PRECIP ARRIVAL AN HOUR OR TWO GIVEN CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS. CHANCE POPS STILL LOOK APPROPRIATE...AS FURTHER WEAKENING
OF THE PREFRONTAL LINE IS ANTICIPATED WITH INSTABILITY LOSS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KEPT THUNDER THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR NOW BUT
WILL REEVALUATE THIS DURING THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ON
TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

DESPITE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE PROVIDING AN
AMPLE AMOUNT OF CAPE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...VERY WARM AIR ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
A LINE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING THE FROM THE WEST CURRENTLY RUNNING ALONG THE OHIO
INDIANA BORDER IS PROGGED TO REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING...BUT BY THIS TIME INSTABILITY FROM
DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AND DO NOT FORESEE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXTENDING MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN
ZANESVILLE...BEFORE DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT AND LEAVING MAINLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES EAST
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OVERNIGHT COLD FRONT ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. THE ONE THING TO KEEP IN
MIND THOUGH WILL BE RAIN RATES LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WHEN THERE IS DEEPER MOISTURE AS THE SETUP LOOKS TO FAVOR WARM
RAIN PROCESSES TO DOMINATE...SO ANY AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN WILL BE
NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POTENTIAL WATER CONCERNS.

THURSDAY WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO NORMALS AND DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN TO
THE LOWER 60S/UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL TO OUR EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE IN ITS WAKE. THIS
MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK DOWN TOWARDS SEASONAL
VALUES...WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
FRIDAY...SPELLING A PLEASANT AND DRY START TO THE WEEKEND.

NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AREA OPEN TO SHORT-WAVE TROFS
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. PRIMARY WAVE LOOKS TO ARRIVE SATURDAY
MORNING...SKIRTING THE NORTHERN FLANKS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT POPS IN THE CHANCE REALM AS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
IS LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND...BUT DRY AIR ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL PRECLUDE POPS FOR SUNDAY. MID-LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE HEADING INTO
THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT AS IT CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN VFR THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT...WITH
A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS THE
FRONT PASSES. FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR OR EAST OF LBE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE.


OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 292203
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
603 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY LESS HUMIDITY AND MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
600 PM...MINOR TIMING EDITS TO GRIDS WITH POPS AND SKY...MAINLY TO
SLOW DOWN PRECIP ARRIVAL AN HOUR OR TWO GIVEN CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS. CHANCE POPS STILL LOOK APPROPRIATE...AS FURTHER WEAKENING
OF THE PREFRONTAL LINE IS ANTICIPATED WITH INSTABILITY LOSS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KEPT THUNDER THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR NOW BUT
WILL REEVALUATE THIS DURING THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ON
TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

DESPITE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE PROVIDING AN
AMPLE AMOUNT OF CAPE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...VERY WARM AIR ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
A LINE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING THE FROM THE WEST CURRENTLY RUNNING ALONG THE OHIO
INDIANA BORDER IS PROGGED TO REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING...BUT BY THIS TIME INSTABILITY FROM
DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AND DO NOT FORESEE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXTENDING MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN
ZANESVILLE...BEFORE DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT AND LEAVING MAINLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES EAST
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OVERNIGHT COLD FRONT ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. THE ONE THING TO KEEP IN
MIND THOUGH WILL BE RAIN RATES LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WHEN THERE IS DEEPER MOISTURE AS THE SETUP LOOKS TO FAVOR WARM
RAIN PROCESSES TO DOMINATE...SO ANY AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN WILL BE
NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POTENTIAL WATER CONCERNS.

THURSDAY WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO NORMALS AND DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN TO
THE LOWER 60S/UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL TO OUR EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE IN ITS WAKE. THIS
MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK DOWN TOWARDS SEASONAL
VALUES...WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
FRIDAY...SPELLING A PLEASANT AND DRY START TO THE WEEKEND.

NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AREA OPEN TO SHORT-WAVE TROFS
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. PRIMARY WAVE LOOKS TO ARRIVE SATURDAY
MORNING...SKIRTING THE NORTHERN FLANKS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT POPS IN THE CHANCE REALM AS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
IS LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND...BUT DRY AIR ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL PRECLUDE POPS FOR SUNDAY. MID-LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE HEADING INTO
THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT AS IT CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN VFR THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT...WITH
A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS THE
FRONT PASSES. FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR OR EAST OF LBE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE.


OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 292203
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
603 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY LESS HUMIDITY AND MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
600 PM...MINOR TIMING EDITS TO GRIDS WITH POPS AND SKY...MAINLY TO
SLOW DOWN PRECIP ARRIVAL AN HOUR OR TWO GIVEN CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS. CHANCE POPS STILL LOOK APPROPRIATE...AS FURTHER WEAKENING
OF THE PREFRONTAL LINE IS ANTICIPATED WITH INSTABILITY LOSS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KEPT THUNDER THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR NOW BUT
WILL REEVALUATE THIS DURING THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ON
TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

DESPITE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE PROVIDING AN
AMPLE AMOUNT OF CAPE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...VERY WARM AIR ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
A LINE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING THE FROM THE WEST CURRENTLY RUNNING ALONG THE OHIO
INDIANA BORDER IS PROGGED TO REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING...BUT BY THIS TIME INSTABILITY FROM
DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AND DO NOT FORESEE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXTENDING MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN
ZANESVILLE...BEFORE DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT AND LEAVING MAINLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES EAST
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OVERNIGHT COLD FRONT ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. THE ONE THING TO KEEP IN
MIND THOUGH WILL BE RAIN RATES LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WHEN THERE IS DEEPER MOISTURE AS THE SETUP LOOKS TO FAVOR WARM
RAIN PROCESSES TO DOMINATE...SO ANY AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN WILL BE
NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POTENTIAL WATER CONCERNS.

THURSDAY WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO NORMALS AND DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN TO
THE LOWER 60S/UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL TO OUR EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE IN ITS WAKE. THIS
MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK DOWN TOWARDS SEASONAL
VALUES...WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
FRIDAY...SPELLING A PLEASANT AND DRY START TO THE WEEKEND.

NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AREA OPEN TO SHORT-WAVE TROFS
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. PRIMARY WAVE LOOKS TO ARRIVE SATURDAY
MORNING...SKIRTING THE NORTHERN FLANKS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT POPS IN THE CHANCE REALM AS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
IS LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND...BUT DRY AIR ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL PRECLUDE POPS FOR SUNDAY. MID-LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE HEADING INTO
THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT AS IT CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN VFR THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT...WITH
A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS THE
FRONT PASSES. FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR OR EAST OF LBE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE.


OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 292009
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
409 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY SHWRS/TSTMS POPPED EARLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA (SAVE FAR SE VA AND NE NC). THIS ACTIVITY IS MAINLY DRIVEN
BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG A PIEDMONT
TROUGH/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY. LITTLE TO NO SUPPORT FOR
STRONG/SVR TSTMS GIVEN LACK OF SHEAR AND NO DISCERNIBLE UPR
FEATURES TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE STILL HAS
PCPN WANING BY 5-7 PM (DUE TO LOSS OF PEAK HEATING) AND THE
FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO THAT TREND. WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS
30-40% THRU ABOUT 6 PM FROM THE EASTERN PIEDMONT TO THE NORTHERN
NECK/EASTERN SHORE. SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE SE...EXCEPT
REMAINING DRY SOUTHSIDE HAMPTON ROADS/VA BEACH/NORTHERN OBX.
SEASONABLY WARM/HUMID TONIGHT AFTER ANY EVENING PCPN DIMINISHES.
LOW TEMPS 70-75F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...
UPR RIDGING RETROGRADES A BIT AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY
LATE IN THE DAY. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...CHC POPS
(30-50%) WILL REMAIN ACROSS NNW AREAS DURING THE AFTN...LOWERING TO
10-20% ACROSS FAR SE VA/COASTAL NE NC. PARTLY SUNNY WITH HIGH TEMPS
IN THE LOW 90S...EXCEPT MID/UPR 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE PUSHING
SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY. HAVE CHC POPS
(30-50%) MOST AREAS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY
FRI MORN. PCPN QUICKLY PUSHES SOUTH/EAST BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING...SO THAT MOST PLACES WILL BE DRY ON FRIDAY. DID MAINTAIN
20-30% POPS ACROSS SE AREAS...HOWEVER...EVEN THAT THREAT IS
PRIMARILY THRU THE EARLY AFTN BEFORE THINGS DRY OUT. THIS IS A
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS AS THE FRONT NOW LOOKS LIKE IT
PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH AND QUICKER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. LOW
TEMPS THU NGT IN THE UPR 60S NW TO THE MID 70S SE. HIGH TEMPS FRI
IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
LATEST GUIDANCE NOW HAS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT STALLING FARTHER
SOUTH ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND BECAUSE
OF A MORE PRONOUNCED UPR TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST. THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. HIGHS SAT IN
THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SW
CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTING ACRS HUDSON BAY CANADA.
GFS/ECMWF INTO BETTER DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT...THEN FLATTEN
OUT SUN WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACRS THE MID ATLC BY MON.

FRONT STALLS AND DISSIPATES OVER FAR SRN VA/NC SAT NIGHT. BEST
CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH/MAINLY NE NC THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BUT EVEN HERE WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20-30% POPS/PRIMARILY
FOR THE AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME ON SUN/TAPERED TO 20% FAR SRN VA
AND DRY ELSEWHERE). WILL MAINTAIN 30-40% POPS NE NC FOR MON DUE
TO THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AS
THIS IS 5 DAYS OUT...POPS AROUND 20% NORTH. KEEPING POPS AROUND
20% ALL AREAS TUE. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE MID 80S/AROUND 90 F ALONG THE
COAST TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND. LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
MID 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NMRS SHWRS DVLPG ALONG SVRL BNDRYS ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTRN. MAIN
SFC TROF LCTD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE SHWRS WERE NOTED MOST OF
THE MORNING IVOF RIC. SHWRS DVLPNG ALONG A SEABREEZE ACROSS THE
DELMARVA WITH ECHOES REMAINING JUST E OF SBY. SE FLOW ALONG WITH
OFFSHORE RIDGING KEEPING SERN TAF SITES DRY FOR NOW.

NO THUNDER NOTED SO WENT WITH A VCSH AT BOTH RIC/SBY FOR THE NEXT
FEW HRS BUT KEPT SERN TAF SITES DRY AS CONFIDENCE THERE RTHR LOW
FOR ANY SHWRS TO DVLP. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND PSBL IFR VSBYS WITH ANY
SHWR THAT DOES CROSS A TAF SITE. DCRG CLDNS BY OR SHORTLY AFTR 00Z
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES.

A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACRS THE MID ATLC REGION THU THRU FRI AFTN.
THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE SCTD TSTM CHCS AT ALL TAF SITES DURING
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM THROUGH THU...ALTHOUGH AS SFC/LEE
TROF OVER VA DEEPENS SLIGHTLY AND HELPS S/SE WINDS AVG NEAR 15 KT
IN THE CHES BAY THERE COULD BE A FEW HRS WORTH OF 20 KT GUSTS IN
THE BAY...BUT TOO MARGINAL TO CONSIDER ANY SCA HEADLINES FOR NOW.
WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT IN THE BAY...BUT WILL PROBABLY BLD TO 2-3
FT LATER THIS EVENG. SEAS 2-3 FT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WTRS LATE THU...THEN STALLS
SSE OF THE AREA BY LATE FRI. S/SE WINDS AVG 10-15 KT...TURNING
SSW THU NGT. NOT A STRONG COOL SURGE ON FRI...AS WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NNE FRI MORNG INTO FRI AFTN...THEN TURN TO THE ESE BY LATE IN
THE DAY. WINDS THEN TURN BACK TO THE SSW FOR FRI NGT AND SAT...AS
THE FRONT DISSIPATES SSE OF THE REGION. WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...LKB



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 292009
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
409 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY SHWRS/TSTMS POPPED EARLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA (SAVE FAR SE VA AND NE NC). THIS ACTIVITY IS MAINLY DRIVEN
BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG A PIEDMONT
TROUGH/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY. LITTLE TO NO SUPPORT FOR
STRONG/SVR TSTMS GIVEN LACK OF SHEAR AND NO DISCERNIBLE UPR
FEATURES TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE STILL HAS
PCPN WANING BY 5-7 PM (DUE TO LOSS OF PEAK HEATING) AND THE
FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO THAT TREND. WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS
30-40% THRU ABOUT 6 PM FROM THE EASTERN PIEDMONT TO THE NORTHERN
NECK/EASTERN SHORE. SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE SE...EXCEPT
REMAINING DRY SOUTHSIDE HAMPTON ROADS/VA BEACH/NORTHERN OBX.
SEASONABLY WARM/HUMID TONIGHT AFTER ANY EVENING PCPN DIMINISHES.
LOW TEMPS 70-75F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...
UPR RIDGING RETROGRADES A BIT AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY
LATE IN THE DAY. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...CHC POPS
(30-50%) WILL REMAIN ACROSS NNW AREAS DURING THE AFTN...LOWERING TO
10-20% ACROSS FAR SE VA/COASTAL NE NC. PARTLY SUNNY WITH HIGH TEMPS
IN THE LOW 90S...EXCEPT MID/UPR 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE PUSHING
SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY. HAVE CHC POPS
(30-50%) MOST AREAS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY
FRI MORN. PCPN QUICKLY PUSHES SOUTH/EAST BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING...SO THAT MOST PLACES WILL BE DRY ON FRIDAY. DID MAINTAIN
20-30% POPS ACROSS SE AREAS...HOWEVER...EVEN THAT THREAT IS
PRIMARILY THRU THE EARLY AFTN BEFORE THINGS DRY OUT. THIS IS A
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS AS THE FRONT NOW LOOKS LIKE IT
PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH AND QUICKER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. LOW
TEMPS THU NGT IN THE UPR 60S NW TO THE MID 70S SE. HIGH TEMPS FRI
IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
LATEST GUIDANCE NOW HAS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT STALLING FARTHER
SOUTH ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND BECAUSE
OF A MORE PRONOUNCED UPR TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST. THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. HIGHS SAT IN
THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SW
CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTING ACRS HUDSON BAY CANADA.
GFS/ECMWF INTO BETTER DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT...THEN FLATTEN
OUT SUN WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACRS THE MID ATLC BY MON.

FRONT STALLS AND DISSIPATES OVER FAR SRN VA/NC SAT NIGHT. BEST
CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH/MAINLY NE NC THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BUT EVEN HERE WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20-30% POPS/PRIMARILY
FOR THE AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME ON SUN/TAPERED TO 20% FAR SRN VA
AND DRY ELSEWHERE). WILL MAINTAIN 30-40% POPS NE NC FOR MON DUE
TO THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AS
THIS IS 5 DAYS OUT...POPS AROUND 20% NORTH. KEEPING POPS AROUND
20% ALL AREAS TUE. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE MID 80S/AROUND 90 F ALONG THE
COAST TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND. LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
MID 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NMRS SHWRS DVLPG ALONG SVRL BNDRYS ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTRN. MAIN
SFC TROF LCTD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE SHWRS WERE NOTED MOST OF
THE MORNING IVOF RIC. SHWRS DVLPNG ALONG A SEABREEZE ACROSS THE
DELMARVA WITH ECHOES REMAINING JUST E OF SBY. SE FLOW ALONG WITH
OFFSHORE RIDGING KEEPING SERN TAF SITES DRY FOR NOW.

NO THUNDER NOTED SO WENT WITH A VCSH AT BOTH RIC/SBY FOR THE NEXT
FEW HRS BUT KEPT SERN TAF SITES DRY AS CONFIDENCE THERE RTHR LOW
FOR ANY SHWRS TO DVLP. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND PSBL IFR VSBYS WITH ANY
SHWR THAT DOES CROSS A TAF SITE. DCRG CLDNS BY OR SHORTLY AFTR 00Z
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES.

A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACRS THE MID ATLC REGION THU THRU FRI AFTN.
THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE SCTD TSTM CHCS AT ALL TAF SITES DURING
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM THROUGH THU...ALTHOUGH AS SFC/LEE
TROF OVER VA DEEPENS SLIGHTLY AND HELPS S/SE WINDS AVG NEAR 15 KT
IN THE CHES BAY THERE COULD BE A FEW HRS WORTH OF 20 KT GUSTS IN
THE BAY...BUT TOO MARGINAL TO CONSIDER ANY SCA HEADLINES FOR NOW.
WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT IN THE BAY...BUT WILL PROBABLY BLD TO 2-3
FT LATER THIS EVENG. SEAS 2-3 FT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WTRS LATE THU...THEN STALLS
SSE OF THE AREA BY LATE FRI. S/SE WINDS AVG 10-15 KT...TURNING
SSW THU NGT. NOT A STRONG COOL SURGE ON FRI...AS WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NNE FRI MORNG INTO FRI AFTN...THEN TURN TO THE ESE BY LATE IN
THE DAY. WINDS THEN TURN BACK TO THE SSW FOR FRI NGT AND SAT...AS
THE FRONT DISSIPATES SSE OF THE REGION. WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...LKB



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 292009
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
409 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY SHWRS/TSTMS POPPED EARLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA (SAVE FAR SE VA AND NE NC). THIS ACTIVITY IS MAINLY DRIVEN
BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG A PIEDMONT
TROUGH/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY. LITTLE TO NO SUPPORT FOR
STRONG/SVR TSTMS GIVEN LACK OF SHEAR AND NO DISCERNIBLE UPR
FEATURES TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE STILL HAS
PCPN WANING BY 5-7 PM (DUE TO LOSS OF PEAK HEATING) AND THE
FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO THAT TREND. WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS
30-40% THRU ABOUT 6 PM FROM THE EASTERN PIEDMONT TO THE NORTHERN
NECK/EASTERN SHORE. SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE SE...EXCEPT
REMAINING DRY SOUTHSIDE HAMPTON ROADS/VA BEACH/NORTHERN OBX.
SEASONABLY WARM/HUMID TONIGHT AFTER ANY EVENING PCPN DIMINISHES.
LOW TEMPS 70-75F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...
UPR RIDGING RETROGRADES A BIT AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY
LATE IN THE DAY. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...CHC POPS
(30-50%) WILL REMAIN ACROSS NNW AREAS DURING THE AFTN...LOWERING TO
10-20% ACROSS FAR SE VA/COASTAL NE NC. PARTLY SUNNY WITH HIGH TEMPS
IN THE LOW 90S...EXCEPT MID/UPR 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE PUSHING
SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY. HAVE CHC POPS
(30-50%) MOST AREAS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY
FRI MORN. PCPN QUICKLY PUSHES SOUTH/EAST BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING...SO THAT MOST PLACES WILL BE DRY ON FRIDAY. DID MAINTAIN
20-30% POPS ACROSS SE AREAS...HOWEVER...EVEN THAT THREAT IS
PRIMARILY THRU THE EARLY AFTN BEFORE THINGS DRY OUT. THIS IS A
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS AS THE FRONT NOW LOOKS LIKE IT
PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH AND QUICKER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. LOW
TEMPS THU NGT IN THE UPR 60S NW TO THE MID 70S SE. HIGH TEMPS FRI
IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
LATEST GUIDANCE NOW HAS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT STALLING FARTHER
SOUTH ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND BECAUSE
OF A MORE PRONOUNCED UPR TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST. THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. HIGHS SAT IN
THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SW
CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTING ACRS HUDSON BAY CANADA.
GFS/ECMWF INTO BETTER DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT...THEN FLATTEN
OUT SUN WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACRS THE MID ATLC BY MON.

FRONT STALLS AND DISSIPATES OVER FAR SRN VA/NC SAT NIGHT. BEST
CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH/MAINLY NE NC THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BUT EVEN HERE WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20-30% POPS/PRIMARILY
FOR THE AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME ON SUN/TAPERED TO 20% FAR SRN VA
AND DRY ELSEWHERE). WILL MAINTAIN 30-40% POPS NE NC FOR MON DUE
TO THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AS
THIS IS 5 DAYS OUT...POPS AROUND 20% NORTH. KEEPING POPS AROUND
20% ALL AREAS TUE. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE MID 80S/AROUND 90 F ALONG THE
COAST TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND. LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
MID 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NMRS SHWRS DVLPG ALONG SVRL BNDRYS ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTRN. MAIN
SFC TROF LCTD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE SHWRS WERE NOTED MOST OF
THE MORNING IVOF RIC. SHWRS DVLPNG ALONG A SEABREEZE ACROSS THE
DELMARVA WITH ECHOES REMAINING JUST E OF SBY. SE FLOW ALONG WITH
OFFSHORE RIDGING KEEPING SERN TAF SITES DRY FOR NOW.

NO THUNDER NOTED SO WENT WITH A VCSH AT BOTH RIC/SBY FOR THE NEXT
FEW HRS BUT KEPT SERN TAF SITES DRY AS CONFIDENCE THERE RTHR LOW
FOR ANY SHWRS TO DVLP. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND PSBL IFR VSBYS WITH ANY
SHWR THAT DOES CROSS A TAF SITE. DCRG CLDNS BY OR SHORTLY AFTR 00Z
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES.

A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACRS THE MID ATLC REGION THU THRU FRI AFTN.
THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE SCTD TSTM CHCS AT ALL TAF SITES DURING
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM THROUGH THU...ALTHOUGH AS SFC/LEE
TROF OVER VA DEEPENS SLIGHTLY AND HELPS S/SE WINDS AVG NEAR 15 KT
IN THE CHES BAY THERE COULD BE A FEW HRS WORTH OF 20 KT GUSTS IN
THE BAY...BUT TOO MARGINAL TO CONSIDER ANY SCA HEADLINES FOR NOW.
WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT IN THE BAY...BUT WILL PROBABLY BLD TO 2-3
FT LATER THIS EVENG. SEAS 2-3 FT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WTRS LATE THU...THEN STALLS
SSE OF THE AREA BY LATE FRI. S/SE WINDS AVG 10-15 KT...TURNING
SSW THU NGT. NOT A STRONG COOL SURGE ON FRI...AS WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NNE FRI MORNG INTO FRI AFTN...THEN TURN TO THE ESE BY LATE IN
THE DAY. WINDS THEN TURN BACK TO THE SSW FOR FRI NGT AND SAT...AS
THE FRONT DISSIPATES SSE OF THE REGION. WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...LKB




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 292009
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
409 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY SHWRS/TSTMS POPPED EARLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA (SAVE FAR SE VA AND NE NC). THIS ACTIVITY IS MAINLY DRIVEN
BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG A PIEDMONT
TROUGH/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY. LITTLE TO NO SUPPORT FOR
STRONG/SVR TSTMS GIVEN LACK OF SHEAR AND NO DISCERNIBLE UPR
FEATURES TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE STILL HAS
PCPN WANING BY 5-7 PM (DUE TO LOSS OF PEAK HEATING) AND THE
FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO THAT TREND. WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS
30-40% THRU ABOUT 6 PM FROM THE EASTERN PIEDMONT TO THE NORTHERN
NECK/EASTERN SHORE. SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE SE...EXCEPT
REMAINING DRY SOUTHSIDE HAMPTON ROADS/VA BEACH/NORTHERN OBX.
SEASONABLY WARM/HUMID TONIGHT AFTER ANY EVENING PCPN DIMINISHES.
LOW TEMPS 70-75F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...
UPR RIDGING RETROGRADES A BIT AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY
LATE IN THE DAY. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...CHC POPS
(30-50%) WILL REMAIN ACROSS NNW AREAS DURING THE AFTN...LOWERING TO
10-20% ACROSS FAR SE VA/COASTAL NE NC. PARTLY SUNNY WITH HIGH TEMPS
IN THE LOW 90S...EXCEPT MID/UPR 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE PUSHING
SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY. HAVE CHC POPS
(30-50%) MOST AREAS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY
FRI MORN. PCPN QUICKLY PUSHES SOUTH/EAST BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING...SO THAT MOST PLACES WILL BE DRY ON FRIDAY. DID MAINTAIN
20-30% POPS ACROSS SE AREAS...HOWEVER...EVEN THAT THREAT IS
PRIMARILY THRU THE EARLY AFTN BEFORE THINGS DRY OUT. THIS IS A
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS AS THE FRONT NOW LOOKS LIKE IT
PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH AND QUICKER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. LOW
TEMPS THU NGT IN THE UPR 60S NW TO THE MID 70S SE. HIGH TEMPS FRI
IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
LATEST GUIDANCE NOW HAS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT STALLING FARTHER
SOUTH ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND BECAUSE
OF A MORE PRONOUNCED UPR TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST. THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. HIGHS SAT IN
THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SW
CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTING ACRS HUDSON BAY CANADA.
GFS/ECMWF INTO BETTER DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT...THEN FLATTEN
OUT SUN WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACRS THE MID ATLC BY MON.

FRONT STALLS AND DISSIPATES OVER FAR SRN VA/NC SAT NIGHT. BEST
CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH/MAINLY NE NC THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BUT EVEN HERE WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20-30% POPS/PRIMARILY
FOR THE AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME ON SUN/TAPERED TO 20% FAR SRN VA
AND DRY ELSEWHERE). WILL MAINTAIN 30-40% POPS NE NC FOR MON DUE
TO THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AS
THIS IS 5 DAYS OUT...POPS AROUND 20% NORTH. KEEPING POPS AROUND
20% ALL AREAS TUE. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE MID 80S/AROUND 90 F ALONG THE
COAST TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND. LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
MID 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NMRS SHWRS DVLPG ALONG SVRL BNDRYS ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTRN. MAIN
SFC TROF LCTD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE SHWRS WERE NOTED MOST OF
THE MORNING IVOF RIC. SHWRS DVLPNG ALONG A SEABREEZE ACROSS THE
DELMARVA WITH ECHOES REMAINING JUST E OF SBY. SE FLOW ALONG WITH
OFFSHORE RIDGING KEEPING SERN TAF SITES DRY FOR NOW.

NO THUNDER NOTED SO WENT WITH A VCSH AT BOTH RIC/SBY FOR THE NEXT
FEW HRS BUT KEPT SERN TAF SITES DRY AS CONFIDENCE THERE RTHR LOW
FOR ANY SHWRS TO DVLP. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND PSBL IFR VSBYS WITH ANY
SHWR THAT DOES CROSS A TAF SITE. DCRG CLDNS BY OR SHORTLY AFTR 00Z
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES.

A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACRS THE MID ATLC REGION THU THRU FRI AFTN.
THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE SCTD TSTM CHCS AT ALL TAF SITES DURING
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM THROUGH THU...ALTHOUGH AS SFC/LEE
TROF OVER VA DEEPENS SLIGHTLY AND HELPS S/SE WINDS AVG NEAR 15 KT
IN THE CHES BAY THERE COULD BE A FEW HRS WORTH OF 20 KT GUSTS IN
THE BAY...BUT TOO MARGINAL TO CONSIDER ANY SCA HEADLINES FOR NOW.
WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT IN THE BAY...BUT WILL PROBABLY BLD TO 2-3
FT LATER THIS EVENG. SEAS 2-3 FT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WTRS LATE THU...THEN STALLS
SSE OF THE AREA BY LATE FRI. S/SE WINDS AVG 10-15 KT...TURNING
SSW THU NGT. NOT A STRONG COOL SURGE ON FRI...AS WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NNE FRI MORNG INTO FRI AFTN...THEN TURN TO THE ESE BY LATE IN
THE DAY. WINDS THEN TURN BACK TO THE SSW FOR FRI NGT AND SAT...AS
THE FRONT DISSIPATES SSE OF THE REGION. WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...LKB




000
FXUS61 KPHI 291946
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
346 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A POTENTIALLY
STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THERE WERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE AND ON DELAWARE BAY AT MID
AFTERNOON. AS THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO TURN OVER THE ATMOSPHERE
IN THOSE AREAS, THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
AS WE GET INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE OVERHEAD THIS EVENING AND
IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING THE DAYTIME CUMULUS TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING
WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD EARLY TONIGHT. MOST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT SOME REMNANT CONVECTION FROM VIRGINIA
AND VICINITY WILL DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND OVER OUR FORECAST AREA
LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE INDICATED AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT THAT TIME.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY WARM AND HUMID OVERNIGHT. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BEGIN WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY ALONG WITH
SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS. THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FOR
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST
ARRIVES IN OUR REGION.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 200 TO 300 PM ON
THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD,
REACHING THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR ABOUT 400 PM TO 500 PM AND THE
COAST TOWARD 700 PM. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. ALSO, SOME OF THE MORE WELL DEVELOPED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING STRONG WIND GUSTS.

WE ARE EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 DEGREES IN MUCH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE AIR WILL REMAIN VERY HUMID AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
SHOULD REACH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S BEFORE THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE. AS A RESULT, WE WILL KEEP THE EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM THURSDAY FOR OUR HIGHLY
URBANIZED AREAS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 MPH IS ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

OVERVIEW...

A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WILL MAINTAIN A TROUGH
IN THE EAST CONUS AND A GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING S/WV ENERGY
ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY...AND TO WHAT EXTENT THE
TROUGH AMPLIFIES AS A RESULT. THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE
GFS...WHICH RESULTS IN MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE
REGION...ASSOCIATED WITH LOW- PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT IN THE GMEX. A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY HERE AT THE D+5 TIME FRAME. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIP WILL BE WITH A COLD FROPA ON SAT...AND ANOTHER LATE
TUE/EARLY WED. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE...AS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT INVOF THE OUTER BANKS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN CHCS FOR SHRA/TSRA THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT OVER
DELMARVA. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES
AND SLOW STORM MOTION...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY DOWN-
POURS. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

FRI...S/WV RIDGING ALOFT ALONG WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL
RESULT IN A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS MAY BE OUT OF
REACH...SO EVEN CU MAY BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. THE GRADIENT
MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR A SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE
AFTN. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 80S W/ L90S IN DELMARVA ALONG
WITH A NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID AIR MASS.

SAT THRU SUN...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LEHIGH
VALLEY AND POCONOS LATE SAT AFTN/EARLY EVE...THEN SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE COASTLINE SAT NIGHT. S/WV TROUGH ALOFT WILL LEAD
TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO THE REGION POOLS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND PROVIDES A
SOURCE OF LIFT. ML CAPE IS MODELED AROUND 1.5 KJ...WHILE
BULK SHEAR APPROACHES 40 KNOTS. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS ARE
MOST FAVORABLE OVER THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND POCONOS. ATTM...
MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE GUSTY WINDS...WITH INVERTED-V MODEL
SOUNDINGS...AS WELL AS D-CAPE APPROACHING 1.4 KJ. HAIL IS
ALSO A THREAT...AS WBZ VALUES FALL BLW 10 KFT IN THE AFTN....
AS WELL AS H50 TEMPS AROUND -12C. OTHERWISE...A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY IS ANTICIPATED. SUN...S/WV RIDGING
ALOFT AS HIGH PRES BRIEFLY BUILDS IN BEHIND DEPARTING COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL PROMOTE A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY.

MON THRU WED...THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. THE OUTCOME HINGES ON JUST HOW MUCH THE EAST
COAST TROUGH AMPLIFIES...WHICH WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR
NOT GULF MOISTURE MAKES IT THIS FAR NORTH ON MON/TUE.
SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE MON...W/
A BETTER CHANCE WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT TUE.
THE FRONT MAY SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES THRU THE REGION...
SO WED MAY BE UNSETTLED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL EIGHT OF OUR TAF SITES
INTO TONIGHT. THE DAYTIME CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD
OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. SOME MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP AROUND KRDG
AND KABE. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO OUR NORTH
AND NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS OUR EIGHT TAF SITES FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN ABOUT 1900Z AND 2300Z.

A SOUTHWEST WIND AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS INTO THIS EVENING SHOULD DECREASE
TO 6 KNOTS OR LESS FOR TONIGHT. A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 8 TO 10
KNOTS IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT AND FRI...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR PATCHY
GROUND FOG IN THE 06Z-12Z FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE SAT EVE AND
EARLY SAT NIGHT IN SHRA/TSRA.

SUN AND MON...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE FOR TONIGHT.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
THURSDAY. A SOUTH SOUTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WAVE HEIGHTS
ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD TO AROUND 4 FEET. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN JUST BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI THRU MON...SUB-SCA WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ070-071-
     102-104-106.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ015-
     017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/IOVINO
MARINE...FRANCK/GORSE/IOVINO




000
FXUS61 KPHI 291946
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
346 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A POTENTIALLY
STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THERE WERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE AND ON DELAWARE BAY AT MID
AFTERNOON. AS THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO TURN OVER THE ATMOSPHERE
IN THOSE AREAS, THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
AS WE GET INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE OVERHEAD THIS EVENING AND
IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING THE DAYTIME CUMULUS TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING
WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD EARLY TONIGHT. MOST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT SOME REMNANT CONVECTION FROM VIRGINIA
AND VICINITY WILL DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND OVER OUR FORECAST AREA
LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE INDICATED AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT THAT TIME.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY WARM AND HUMID OVERNIGHT. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BEGIN WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY ALONG WITH
SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS. THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FOR
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST
ARRIVES IN OUR REGION.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 200 TO 300 PM ON
THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD,
REACHING THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR ABOUT 400 PM TO 500 PM AND THE
COAST TOWARD 700 PM. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. ALSO, SOME OF THE MORE WELL DEVELOPED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING STRONG WIND GUSTS.

WE ARE EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 DEGREES IN MUCH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE AIR WILL REMAIN VERY HUMID AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
SHOULD REACH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S BEFORE THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE. AS A RESULT, WE WILL KEEP THE EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM THURSDAY FOR OUR HIGHLY
URBANIZED AREAS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 MPH IS ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

OVERVIEW...

A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WILL MAINTAIN A TROUGH
IN THE EAST CONUS AND A GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING S/WV ENERGY
ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY...AND TO WHAT EXTENT THE
TROUGH AMPLIFIES AS A RESULT. THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE
GFS...WHICH RESULTS IN MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE
REGION...ASSOCIATED WITH LOW- PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT IN THE GMEX. A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY HERE AT THE D+5 TIME FRAME. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIP WILL BE WITH A COLD FROPA ON SAT...AND ANOTHER LATE
TUE/EARLY WED. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE...AS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT INVOF THE OUTER BANKS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN CHCS FOR SHRA/TSRA THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT OVER
DELMARVA. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES
AND SLOW STORM MOTION...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY DOWN-
POURS. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

FRI...S/WV RIDGING ALOFT ALONG WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL
RESULT IN A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS MAY BE OUT OF
REACH...SO EVEN CU MAY BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. THE GRADIENT
MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR A SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE
AFTN. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 80S W/ L90S IN DELMARVA ALONG
WITH A NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID AIR MASS.

SAT THRU SUN...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LEHIGH
VALLEY AND POCONOS LATE SAT AFTN/EARLY EVE...THEN SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE COASTLINE SAT NIGHT. S/WV TROUGH ALOFT WILL LEAD
TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO THE REGION POOLS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND PROVIDES A
SOURCE OF LIFT. ML CAPE IS MODELED AROUND 1.5 KJ...WHILE
BULK SHEAR APPROACHES 40 KNOTS. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS ARE
MOST FAVORABLE OVER THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND POCONOS. ATTM...
MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE GUSTY WINDS...WITH INVERTED-V MODEL
SOUNDINGS...AS WELL AS D-CAPE APPROACHING 1.4 KJ. HAIL IS
ALSO A THREAT...AS WBZ VALUES FALL BLW 10 KFT IN THE AFTN....
AS WELL AS H50 TEMPS AROUND -12C. OTHERWISE...A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY IS ANTICIPATED. SUN...S/WV RIDGING
ALOFT AS HIGH PRES BRIEFLY BUILDS IN BEHIND DEPARTING COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL PROMOTE A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY.

MON THRU WED...THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. THE OUTCOME HINGES ON JUST HOW MUCH THE EAST
COAST TROUGH AMPLIFIES...WHICH WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR
NOT GULF MOISTURE MAKES IT THIS FAR NORTH ON MON/TUE.
SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE MON...W/
A BETTER CHANCE WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT TUE.
THE FRONT MAY SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES THRU THE REGION...
SO WED MAY BE UNSETTLED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL EIGHT OF OUR TAF SITES
INTO TONIGHT. THE DAYTIME CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD
OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. SOME MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP AROUND KRDG
AND KABE. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO OUR NORTH
AND NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS OUR EIGHT TAF SITES FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN ABOUT 1900Z AND 2300Z.

A SOUTHWEST WIND AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS INTO THIS EVENING SHOULD DECREASE
TO 6 KNOTS OR LESS FOR TONIGHT. A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 8 TO 10
KNOTS IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT AND FRI...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR PATCHY
GROUND FOG IN THE 06Z-12Z FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE SAT EVE AND
EARLY SAT NIGHT IN SHRA/TSRA.

SUN AND MON...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE FOR TONIGHT.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
THURSDAY. A SOUTH SOUTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WAVE HEIGHTS
ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD TO AROUND 4 FEET. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN JUST BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI THRU MON...SUB-SCA WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ070-071-
     102-104-106.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ015-
     017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/IOVINO
MARINE...FRANCK/GORSE/IOVINO



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291939
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
339 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY SHWRS/TSTMS POPPED EARLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA (SAVE FAR SE VA AND NE NC). THIS ACTIVITY IS MAINLY DRIVEN
BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG A PIEDMONT
TROUGH/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY. LITTLE TO NO SUPPORT FOR
STRONG/SVR TSTMS GIVEN LACK OF SHEAR AND NO DISCERNIBLE UPR
FEATURES TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE STILL HAS
PCPN WANING BY 5-7 PM (DUE TO LOSS OF PEAK HEATING) AND THE
FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO THAT TREND. WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS
30-40% THRU ABOUT 6 PM FROM THE EASTERN PIEDMONT TO THE NORTHERN
NECK/EASTERN SHORE. SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE SE...EXCEPT
REMAINING DRY SOUTHSIDE HAMPTON ROADS/VA BEACH/NORTHERN OBX.
SEASONABLY WARM/HUMID TONIGHT AFTER ANY EVENING PCPN DIMINISHES.
LOW TEMPS 70-75F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...
UPR RIDGING RETROGRADES A BIT AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY
LATE IN THE DAY. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...CHC POPS
(30-50%) WILL REMAIN ACROSS NNW AREAS DURING THE AFTN...LOWERING TO
10-20% ACROSS FAR SE VA/COASTAL NE NC. PARTLY SUNNY WITH HIGH TEMPS
IN THE LOW 90S...EXCEPT MID/UPR 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE PUSHING
SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY. HAVE CHC POPS
(30-50%) MOST AREAS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY
FRI MORN. PCPN QUICKLY PUSHES SOUTH/EAST BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING...SO THAT MOST PLACES WILL BE DRY ON FRIDAY. DID MAINTAIN
20-30% POPS ACROSS SE AREAS...HOWEVER...EVEN THAT THREAT IS
PRIMARILY THRU THE EARLY AFTN BEFORE THINGS DRY OUT. THIS IS A
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS AS THE FRONT NOW LOOKS LIKE IT
PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH AND QUICKER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. LOW
TEMPS THU NGT IN THE UPR 60S NW TO THE MID 70S SE. HIGH TEMPS FRI
IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
LATEST GUIDANCE NOW HAS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT STALLING FARTHER
SOUTH ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND BECAUSE
OF A MORE PRONOUNCED UPR TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST. THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. HIGHS SAT IN
THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE SW CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTING ACRS HUDSON BAY
CANADA. GFS/ECMWF INTO BETTER DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT...THEN FLATTEN OUT
SUN WITH A SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACRS THE MID ATLC BY MON.

FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS OVER FAR SRN VA/NC LATE FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND. BEST CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH/MAINLY
NE NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT EVEN HERE WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20-30%
POPS/PRIMARILY FOR THE AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME (TAPERED TO 20% FAR
SRN VA AND DRY ELSEWHERE). DID RAISE POPS A BIT FOR MON DUE TO THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AS THIS IS 5-6
DAYS OUT SO WILL GENLY KEEP POPS ONLY AT 30-40% SOUTH TO 20% NORTH.
KEEPING POPS AROUND 20% ALL AREAS TUE. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE
MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND.
LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NMRS SHWRS DVLPG ALONG SVRL BNDRYS ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTRN. MAIN
SFC TROF LCTD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE SHWRS WERE NOTED MOST OF
THE MORNING IVOF RIC. SHWRS DVLPNG ALONG A SEABREEZE ACROSS THE
DELMARVA WITH ECHOES REMAINING JUST E OF SBY. SE FLOW ALONG WITH
OFFSHORE RIDGING KEEPING SERN TAF SITES DRY FOR NOW.

NO THUNDER NOTED SO WENT WITH A VCSH AT BOTH RIC/SBY FOR THE NEXT
FEW HRS BUT KEPT SERN TAF SITES DRY AS CONFIDENCE THERE RTHR LOW
FOR ANY SHWRS TO DVLP. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND PSBL IFR VSBYS WITH ANY
SHWR THAT DOES CROSS A TAF SITE. DCRG CLDNS BY OR SHORTLY AFTR 00Z
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES.

A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACRS THE MID ATLC REGION THU THRU FRI AFTN.
THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE SCTD TSTM CHCS AT ALL TAF SITES DURING
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU THU NGT. WEAK SFC HI
PRES IS CENTERED OFF THE CST WITH WEAK SFC TROFFING INLAND ACRS
THE PIEDMONT AND CSTL PLAIN. S/SW WINDS 5-10 KT WERE OCCURRING
EARLY THIS MORNG. MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT WINDS MAY BE A
LITTLE STRONGER LATE THIS AFTN/TNGT...AS SFC/LEE TROF OVER VA
DEEPENS SLIGHTLY AND HELPS S/SE WINDS AVG NEAR 15 KT IN THE CHES
BAY. COULD BE A FEW HRS WORTH OF 20 KT GUSTS IN THE BAY...BUT TOO
MARGINAL TO CONSIDER ANY SCA HEADLINES FOR NOW. WAVES GENERALLY
1-2 FT IN THE BAY...BUT WILL PROBABLY BLD TO 2-3 FT THIS EVENG.
SEAS 2-3 FT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WTRS LATE THU...THEN STALLS
SSE OF THE AREA BY LATE FRI. S/SE WINDS AVG 10-15 KT...TURNING
SSW THU NGT. NOT A STRONG COOL SURGE ON FRI...AS WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NNE FRI MORNG INTO FRI AFTN...THEN TURN TO THE ESE BY LATE IN
THE DAY. WINDS THEN TURN BACK TO THE SSW FOR FRI NGT AND SAT...AS
THE FRONT DISSIPATES SSE OF THE REGION. WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...LKB




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291939
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
339 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY SHWRS/TSTMS POPPED EARLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA (SAVE FAR SE VA AND NE NC). THIS ACTIVITY IS MAINLY DRIVEN
BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG A PIEDMONT
TROUGH/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY. LITTLE TO NO SUPPORT FOR
STRONG/SVR TSTMS GIVEN LACK OF SHEAR AND NO DISCERNIBLE UPR
FEATURES TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE STILL HAS
PCPN WANING BY 5-7 PM (DUE TO LOSS OF PEAK HEATING) AND THE
FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO THAT TREND. WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS
30-40% THRU ABOUT 6 PM FROM THE EASTERN PIEDMONT TO THE NORTHERN
NECK/EASTERN SHORE. SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE SE...EXCEPT
REMAINING DRY SOUTHSIDE HAMPTON ROADS/VA BEACH/NORTHERN OBX.
SEASONABLY WARM/HUMID TONIGHT AFTER ANY EVENING PCPN DIMINISHES.
LOW TEMPS 70-75F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...
UPR RIDGING RETROGRADES A BIT AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY
LATE IN THE DAY. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...CHC POPS
(30-50%) WILL REMAIN ACROSS NNW AREAS DURING THE AFTN...LOWERING TO
10-20% ACROSS FAR SE VA/COASTAL NE NC. PARTLY SUNNY WITH HIGH TEMPS
IN THE LOW 90S...EXCEPT MID/UPR 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE PUSHING
SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY. HAVE CHC POPS
(30-50%) MOST AREAS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY
FRI MORN. PCPN QUICKLY PUSHES SOUTH/EAST BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING...SO THAT MOST PLACES WILL BE DRY ON FRIDAY. DID MAINTAIN
20-30% POPS ACROSS SE AREAS...HOWEVER...EVEN THAT THREAT IS
PRIMARILY THRU THE EARLY AFTN BEFORE THINGS DRY OUT. THIS IS A
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS AS THE FRONT NOW LOOKS LIKE IT
PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH AND QUICKER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. LOW
TEMPS THU NGT IN THE UPR 60S NW TO THE MID 70S SE. HIGH TEMPS FRI
IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
LATEST GUIDANCE NOW HAS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT STALLING FARTHER
SOUTH ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND BECAUSE
OF A MORE PRONOUNCED UPR TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST. THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. HIGHS SAT IN
THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE SW CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTING ACRS HUDSON BAY
CANADA. GFS/ECMWF INTO BETTER DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT...THEN FLATTEN OUT
SUN WITH A SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACRS THE MID ATLC BY MON.

FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS OVER FAR SRN VA/NC LATE FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND. BEST CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH/MAINLY
NE NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT EVEN HERE WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20-30%
POPS/PRIMARILY FOR THE AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME (TAPERED TO 20% FAR
SRN VA AND DRY ELSEWHERE). DID RAISE POPS A BIT FOR MON DUE TO THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AS THIS IS 5-6
DAYS OUT SO WILL GENLY KEEP POPS ONLY AT 30-40% SOUTH TO 20% NORTH.
KEEPING POPS AROUND 20% ALL AREAS TUE. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE
MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND.
LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NMRS SHWRS DVLPG ALONG SVRL BNDRYS ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTRN. MAIN
SFC TROF LCTD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE SHWRS WERE NOTED MOST OF
THE MORNING IVOF RIC. SHWRS DVLPNG ALONG A SEABREEZE ACROSS THE
DELMARVA WITH ECHOES REMAINING JUST E OF SBY. SE FLOW ALONG WITH
OFFSHORE RIDGING KEEPING SERN TAF SITES DRY FOR NOW.

NO THUNDER NOTED SO WENT WITH A VCSH AT BOTH RIC/SBY FOR THE NEXT
FEW HRS BUT KEPT SERN TAF SITES DRY AS CONFIDENCE THERE RTHR LOW
FOR ANY SHWRS TO DVLP. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND PSBL IFR VSBYS WITH ANY
SHWR THAT DOES CROSS A TAF SITE. DCRG CLDNS BY OR SHORTLY AFTR 00Z
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES.

A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACRS THE MID ATLC REGION THU THRU FRI AFTN.
THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE SCTD TSTM CHCS AT ALL TAF SITES DURING
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU THU NGT. WEAK SFC HI
PRES IS CENTERED OFF THE CST WITH WEAK SFC TROFFING INLAND ACRS
THE PIEDMONT AND CSTL PLAIN. S/SW WINDS 5-10 KT WERE OCCURRING
EARLY THIS MORNG. MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT WINDS MAY BE A
LITTLE STRONGER LATE THIS AFTN/TNGT...AS SFC/LEE TROF OVER VA
DEEPENS SLIGHTLY AND HELPS S/SE WINDS AVG NEAR 15 KT IN THE CHES
BAY. COULD BE A FEW HRS WORTH OF 20 KT GUSTS IN THE BAY...BUT TOO
MARGINAL TO CONSIDER ANY SCA HEADLINES FOR NOW. WAVES GENERALLY
1-2 FT IN THE BAY...BUT WILL PROBABLY BLD TO 2-3 FT THIS EVENG.
SEAS 2-3 FT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WTRS LATE THU...THEN STALLS
SSE OF THE AREA BY LATE FRI. S/SE WINDS AVG 10-15 KT...TURNING
SSW THU NGT. NOT A STRONG COOL SURGE ON FRI...AS WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NNE FRI MORNG INTO FRI AFTN...THEN TURN TO THE ESE BY LATE IN
THE DAY. WINDS THEN TURN BACK TO THE SSW FOR FRI NGT AND SAT...AS
THE FRONT DISSIPATES SSE OF THE REGION. WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...LKB




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291939
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
339 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY SHWRS/TSTMS POPPED EARLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA (SAVE FAR SE VA AND NE NC). THIS ACTIVITY IS MAINLY DRIVEN
BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG A PIEDMONT
TROUGH/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY. LITTLE TO NO SUPPORT FOR
STRONG/SVR TSTMS GIVEN LACK OF SHEAR AND NO DISCERNIBLE UPR
FEATURES TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE STILL HAS
PCPN WANING BY 5-7 PM (DUE TO LOSS OF PEAK HEATING) AND THE
FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO THAT TREND. WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS
30-40% THRU ABOUT 6 PM FROM THE EASTERN PIEDMONT TO THE NORTHERN
NECK/EASTERN SHORE. SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE SE...EXCEPT
REMAINING DRY SOUTHSIDE HAMPTON ROADS/VA BEACH/NORTHERN OBX.
SEASONABLY WARM/HUMID TONIGHT AFTER ANY EVENING PCPN DIMINISHES.
LOW TEMPS 70-75F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...
UPR RIDGING RETROGRADES A BIT AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY
LATE IN THE DAY. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...CHC POPS
(30-50%) WILL REMAIN ACROSS NNW AREAS DURING THE AFTN...LOWERING TO
10-20% ACROSS FAR SE VA/COASTAL NE NC. PARTLY SUNNY WITH HIGH TEMPS
IN THE LOW 90S...EXCEPT MID/UPR 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE PUSHING
SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY. HAVE CHC POPS
(30-50%) MOST AREAS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY
FRI MORN. PCPN QUICKLY PUSHES SOUTH/EAST BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING...SO THAT MOST PLACES WILL BE DRY ON FRIDAY. DID MAINTAIN
20-30% POPS ACROSS SE AREAS...HOWEVER...EVEN THAT THREAT IS
PRIMARILY THRU THE EARLY AFTN BEFORE THINGS DRY OUT. THIS IS A
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS AS THE FRONT NOW LOOKS LIKE IT
PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH AND QUICKER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. LOW
TEMPS THU NGT IN THE UPR 60S NW TO THE MID 70S SE. HIGH TEMPS FRI
IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
LATEST GUIDANCE NOW HAS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT STALLING FARTHER
SOUTH ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND BECAUSE
OF A MORE PRONOUNCED UPR TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST. THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. HIGHS SAT IN
THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE SW CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTING ACRS HUDSON BAY
CANADA. GFS/ECMWF INTO BETTER DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT...THEN FLATTEN OUT
SUN WITH A SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACRS THE MID ATLC BY MON.

FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS OVER FAR SRN VA/NC LATE FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND. BEST CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH/MAINLY
NE NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT EVEN HERE WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20-30%
POPS/PRIMARILY FOR THE AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME (TAPERED TO 20% FAR
SRN VA AND DRY ELSEWHERE). DID RAISE POPS A BIT FOR MON DUE TO THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AS THIS IS 5-6
DAYS OUT SO WILL GENLY KEEP POPS ONLY AT 30-40% SOUTH TO 20% NORTH.
KEEPING POPS AROUND 20% ALL AREAS TUE. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE
MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND.
LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NMRS SHWRS DVLPG ALONG SVRL BNDRYS ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTRN. MAIN
SFC TROF LCTD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE SHWRS WERE NOTED MOST OF
THE MORNING IVOF RIC. SHWRS DVLPNG ALONG A SEABREEZE ACROSS THE
DELMARVA WITH ECHOES REMAINING JUST E OF SBY. SE FLOW ALONG WITH
OFFSHORE RIDGING KEEPING SERN TAF SITES DRY FOR NOW.

NO THUNDER NOTED SO WENT WITH A VCSH AT BOTH RIC/SBY FOR THE NEXT
FEW HRS BUT KEPT SERN TAF SITES DRY AS CONFIDENCE THERE RTHR LOW
FOR ANY SHWRS TO DVLP. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND PSBL IFR VSBYS WITH ANY
SHWR THAT DOES CROSS A TAF SITE. DCRG CLDNS BY OR SHORTLY AFTR 00Z
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES.

A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACRS THE MID ATLC REGION THU THRU FRI AFTN.
THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE SCTD TSTM CHCS AT ALL TAF SITES DURING
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU THU NGT. WEAK SFC HI
PRES IS CENTERED OFF THE CST WITH WEAK SFC TROFFING INLAND ACRS
THE PIEDMONT AND CSTL PLAIN. S/SW WINDS 5-10 KT WERE OCCURRING
EARLY THIS MORNG. MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT WINDS MAY BE A
LITTLE STRONGER LATE THIS AFTN/TNGT...AS SFC/LEE TROF OVER VA
DEEPENS SLIGHTLY AND HELPS S/SE WINDS AVG NEAR 15 KT IN THE CHES
BAY. COULD BE A FEW HRS WORTH OF 20 KT GUSTS IN THE BAY...BUT TOO
MARGINAL TO CONSIDER ANY SCA HEADLINES FOR NOW. WAVES GENERALLY
1-2 FT IN THE BAY...BUT WILL PROBABLY BLD TO 2-3 FT THIS EVENG.
SEAS 2-3 FT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WTRS LATE THU...THEN STALLS
SSE OF THE AREA BY LATE FRI. S/SE WINDS AVG 10-15 KT...TURNING
SSW THU NGT. NOT A STRONG COOL SURGE ON FRI...AS WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NNE FRI MORNG INTO FRI AFTN...THEN TURN TO THE ESE BY LATE IN
THE DAY. WINDS THEN TURN BACK TO THE SSW FOR FRI NGT AND SAT...AS
THE FRONT DISSIPATES SSE OF THE REGION. WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...LKB




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291939
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
339 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY SHWRS/TSTMS POPPED EARLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA (SAVE FAR SE VA AND NE NC). THIS ACTIVITY IS MAINLY DRIVEN
BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG A PIEDMONT
TROUGH/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY. LITTLE TO NO SUPPORT FOR
STRONG/SVR TSTMS GIVEN LACK OF SHEAR AND NO DISCERNIBLE UPR
FEATURES TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE STILL HAS
PCPN WANING BY 5-7 PM (DUE TO LOSS OF PEAK HEATING) AND THE
FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO THAT TREND. WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS
30-40% THRU ABOUT 6 PM FROM THE EASTERN PIEDMONT TO THE NORTHERN
NECK/EASTERN SHORE. SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE SE...EXCEPT
REMAINING DRY SOUTHSIDE HAMPTON ROADS/VA BEACH/NORTHERN OBX.
SEASONABLY WARM/HUMID TONIGHT AFTER ANY EVENING PCPN DIMINISHES.
LOW TEMPS 70-75F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...
UPR RIDGING RETROGRADES A BIT AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY
LATE IN THE DAY. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...CHC POPS
(30-50%) WILL REMAIN ACROSS NNW AREAS DURING THE AFTN...LOWERING TO
10-20% ACROSS FAR SE VA/COASTAL NE NC. PARTLY SUNNY WITH HIGH TEMPS
IN THE LOW 90S...EXCEPT MID/UPR 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE PUSHING
SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY. HAVE CHC POPS
(30-50%) MOST AREAS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY
FRI MORN. PCPN QUICKLY PUSHES SOUTH/EAST BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING...SO THAT MOST PLACES WILL BE DRY ON FRIDAY. DID MAINTAIN
20-30% POPS ACROSS SE AREAS...HOWEVER...EVEN THAT THREAT IS
PRIMARILY THRU THE EARLY AFTN BEFORE THINGS DRY OUT. THIS IS A
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS AS THE FRONT NOW LOOKS LIKE IT
PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH AND QUICKER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. LOW
TEMPS THU NGT IN THE UPR 60S NW TO THE MID 70S SE. HIGH TEMPS FRI
IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
LATEST GUIDANCE NOW HAS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT STALLING FARTHER
SOUTH ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND BECAUSE
OF A MORE PRONOUNCED UPR TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST. THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. HIGHS SAT IN
THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE SW CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTING ACRS HUDSON BAY
CANADA. GFS/ECMWF INTO BETTER DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT...THEN FLATTEN OUT
SUN WITH A SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACRS THE MID ATLC BY MON.

FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS OVER FAR SRN VA/NC LATE FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND. BEST CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH/MAINLY
NE NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT EVEN HERE WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20-30%
POPS/PRIMARILY FOR THE AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME (TAPERED TO 20% FAR
SRN VA AND DRY ELSEWHERE). DID RAISE POPS A BIT FOR MON DUE TO THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AS THIS IS 5-6
DAYS OUT SO WILL GENLY KEEP POPS ONLY AT 30-40% SOUTH TO 20% NORTH.
KEEPING POPS AROUND 20% ALL AREAS TUE. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE
MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND.
LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NMRS SHWRS DVLPG ALONG SVRL BNDRYS ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTRN. MAIN
SFC TROF LCTD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE SHWRS WERE NOTED MOST OF
THE MORNING IVOF RIC. SHWRS DVLPNG ALONG A SEABREEZE ACROSS THE
DELMARVA WITH ECHOES REMAINING JUST E OF SBY. SE FLOW ALONG WITH
OFFSHORE RIDGING KEEPING SERN TAF SITES DRY FOR NOW.

NO THUNDER NOTED SO WENT WITH A VCSH AT BOTH RIC/SBY FOR THE NEXT
FEW HRS BUT KEPT SERN TAF SITES DRY AS CONFIDENCE THERE RTHR LOW
FOR ANY SHWRS TO DVLP. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND PSBL IFR VSBYS WITH ANY
SHWR THAT DOES CROSS A TAF SITE. DCRG CLDNS BY OR SHORTLY AFTR 00Z
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES.

A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACRS THE MID ATLC REGION THU THRU FRI AFTN.
THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE SCTD TSTM CHCS AT ALL TAF SITES DURING
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU THU NGT. WEAK SFC HI
PRES IS CENTERED OFF THE CST WITH WEAK SFC TROFFING INLAND ACRS
THE PIEDMONT AND CSTL PLAIN. S/SW WINDS 5-10 KT WERE OCCURRING
EARLY THIS MORNG. MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT WINDS MAY BE A
LITTLE STRONGER LATE THIS AFTN/TNGT...AS SFC/LEE TROF OVER VA
DEEPENS SLIGHTLY AND HELPS S/SE WINDS AVG NEAR 15 KT IN THE CHES
BAY. COULD BE A FEW HRS WORTH OF 20 KT GUSTS IN THE BAY...BUT TOO
MARGINAL TO CONSIDER ANY SCA HEADLINES FOR NOW. WAVES GENERALLY
1-2 FT IN THE BAY...BUT WILL PROBABLY BLD TO 2-3 FT THIS EVENG.
SEAS 2-3 FT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WTRS LATE THU...THEN STALLS
SSE OF THE AREA BY LATE FRI. S/SE WINDS AVG 10-15 KT...TURNING
SSW THU NGT. NOT A STRONG COOL SURGE ON FRI...AS WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NNE FRI MORNG INTO FRI AFTN...THEN TURN TO THE ESE BY LATE IN
THE DAY. WINDS THEN TURN BACK TO THE SSW FOR FRI NGT AND SAT...AS
THE FRONT DISSIPATES SSE OF THE REGION. WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...LKB




000
FXUS61 KLWX 291855
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
255 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT. HIGH PRES
WILL BUILD FOR THE WEEKEND AND HOLD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...VERY WARM AND HUMID TODAY WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S. SCT-NMRS SHOWERS AND ISOLD T-STORMS
ONGOING PRIMARILY OVER NE MD. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN DURING THE NIGHT WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING AGAIN. LOTS OF CLOUDS WILL KEEP THINGS VERY WARM AND
SULTRY WITH LOWS BARELY DROPPING BELOW 80F IN THE DISTRICT.

CDFNT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL ENTER THE FCST
AREA AROUND 18Z THU AND SHOULD CLEAR THE FCST AREA BY 03Z FRI.
FRONT WILL BE LOSING MUCH OF ITS PUNCH BUT IT APPEARS THERE COULD
BE A QUICK BAND OF -SHRA/TSRA RIGHT ALONG OR JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...12Z MODEL SUITE HAS THE
COLD FRONT PLACED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA BY 12Z FRIDAY. ANY
LINGERING PCPN WITH THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES OVER THE
WEEKEND. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST IN THE WAKE.
THE REGION WILL REMAIN AT THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF BROAD CLOSED LOW
OVER CANADA...WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE LOW REMAINING
WELL TO THE NORTH. AS SUCH...EXPECTING DRY WX FRI AND FRI NIGHT.
12Z GFS SUGGESTING LIGHT PCPN OVER NORTHEASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA
SAT AFTN WITH A SHORTWAVE JUST TO THE NORTH. WILL KEEP THINGS DRY
FOR NOW THOUGH DURING THIS TIME WITH LACK OF SFC FORCING CURRENTLY
NOTED.

QUICK SHOT OF CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY DROP 850MB
TEMPS TO AROUND 15 DEGREES CELSIUS...RESULTING IN HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 80S. THE COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE HIGH BUILDS
IN...WITH 850MB TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK TO NEAR 20 DEGREES CELSIUS BY
SAT AFTN. LOWS FRIDAY NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS NEARING 90 ON
SATURDAY. DEW PTS IN THE 60S SAT SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES WELL BELOW
ADVISORY LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
FOR SUN INTO MON WITH HIGH PRESS DOMINATING CONDITIONS BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT LINGERS OFF THE DELMARVA COAST AS IT
WEAKENS... THEREFORE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS TO THE SE AND E
OF OUR CWA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING SOME AFTN SHOWERS ON MON
AND TUE... BUT CONFIDENCE WITH IT IS LOW ATTM... SO HAVE KEPT LOW
POPS. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES ON WED INCREASING THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOR THIS DAY. TEMPS WILL NEAR NORMAL SUN AND
GRADUALLY INCREASING INTO HE LOW 90S FOR WED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
T-STORM UNTIL 00Z TONIGHT. PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT AT THE USUAL TROUBLE SPOTS. CDFNT WILL CROSS THE AREA THU
AFTERNOON

VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR
LESS...SHIFTING FROM THE NW FRIDAY TO A WESTERLY FLOW SAT.

&&

.MARINE...SRLY WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT OVER THE BAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY THU. SCA WAS EXPANDED TO COVER THE ENTIRE
LENGTH OF THE BAY.

BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA GUSTS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ON THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY...WITH ALL WATERS BCMG SUB-SCA BY FRI AFT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
THEN LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537-539>541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...SEARS/IMR/LFR
MARINE...SEARS/IMR/LFR




000
FXUS61 KLWX 291855
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
255 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT. HIGH PRES
WILL BUILD FOR THE WEEKEND AND HOLD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...VERY WARM AND HUMID TODAY WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S. SCT-NMRS SHOWERS AND ISOLD T-STORMS
ONGOING PRIMARILY OVER NE MD. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN DURING THE NIGHT WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING AGAIN. LOTS OF CLOUDS WILL KEEP THINGS VERY WARM AND
SULTRY WITH LOWS BARELY DROPPING BELOW 80F IN THE DISTRICT.

CDFNT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL ENTER THE FCST
AREA AROUND 18Z THU AND SHOULD CLEAR THE FCST AREA BY 03Z FRI.
FRONT WILL BE LOSING MUCH OF ITS PUNCH BUT IT APPEARS THERE COULD
BE A QUICK BAND OF -SHRA/TSRA RIGHT ALONG OR JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...12Z MODEL SUITE HAS THE
COLD FRONT PLACED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA BY 12Z FRIDAY. ANY
LINGERING PCPN WITH THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES OVER THE
WEEKEND. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST IN THE WAKE.
THE REGION WILL REMAIN AT THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF BROAD CLOSED LOW
OVER CANADA...WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE LOW REMAINING
WELL TO THE NORTH. AS SUCH...EXPECTING DRY WX FRI AND FRI NIGHT.
12Z GFS SUGGESTING LIGHT PCPN OVER NORTHEASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA
SAT AFTN WITH A SHORTWAVE JUST TO THE NORTH. WILL KEEP THINGS DRY
FOR NOW THOUGH DURING THIS TIME WITH LACK OF SFC FORCING CURRENTLY
NOTED.

QUICK SHOT OF CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY DROP 850MB
TEMPS TO AROUND 15 DEGREES CELSIUS...RESULTING IN HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 80S. THE COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE HIGH BUILDS
IN...WITH 850MB TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK TO NEAR 20 DEGREES CELSIUS BY
SAT AFTN. LOWS FRIDAY NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS NEARING 90 ON
SATURDAY. DEW PTS IN THE 60S SAT SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES WELL BELOW
ADVISORY LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
FOR SUN INTO MON WITH HIGH PRESS DOMINATING CONDITIONS BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT LINGERS OFF THE DELMARVA COAST AS IT
WEAKENS... THEREFORE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS TO THE SE AND E
OF OUR CWA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING SOME AFTN SHOWERS ON MON
AND TUE... BUT CONFIDENCE WITH IT IS LOW ATTM... SO HAVE KEPT LOW
POPS. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES ON WED INCREASING THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOR THIS DAY. TEMPS WILL NEAR NORMAL SUN AND
GRADUALLY INCREASING INTO HE LOW 90S FOR WED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
T-STORM UNTIL 00Z TONIGHT. PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT AT THE USUAL TROUBLE SPOTS. CDFNT WILL CROSS THE AREA THU
AFTERNOON

VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR
LESS...SHIFTING FROM THE NW FRIDAY TO A WESTERLY FLOW SAT.

&&

.MARINE...SRLY WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT OVER THE BAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY THU. SCA WAS EXPANDED TO COVER THE ENTIRE
LENGTH OF THE BAY.

BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA GUSTS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ON THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY...WITH ALL WATERS BCMG SUB-SCA BY FRI AFT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
THEN LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537-539>541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...SEARS/IMR/LFR
MARINE...SEARS/IMR/LFR



000
FXUS61 KLWX 291855
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
255 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT. HIGH PRES
WILL BUILD FOR THE WEEKEND AND HOLD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...VERY WARM AND HUMID TODAY WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S. SCT-NMRS SHOWERS AND ISOLD T-STORMS
ONGOING PRIMARILY OVER NE MD. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN DURING THE NIGHT WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING AGAIN. LOTS OF CLOUDS WILL KEEP THINGS VERY WARM AND
SULTRY WITH LOWS BARELY DROPPING BELOW 80F IN THE DISTRICT.

CDFNT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL ENTER THE FCST
AREA AROUND 18Z THU AND SHOULD CLEAR THE FCST AREA BY 03Z FRI.
FRONT WILL BE LOSING MUCH OF ITS PUNCH BUT IT APPEARS THERE COULD
BE A QUICK BAND OF -SHRA/TSRA RIGHT ALONG OR JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...12Z MODEL SUITE HAS THE
COLD FRONT PLACED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA BY 12Z FRIDAY. ANY
LINGERING PCPN WITH THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES OVER THE
WEEKEND. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST IN THE WAKE.
THE REGION WILL REMAIN AT THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF BROAD CLOSED LOW
OVER CANADA...WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE LOW REMAINING
WELL TO THE NORTH. AS SUCH...EXPECTING DRY WX FRI AND FRI NIGHT.
12Z GFS SUGGESTING LIGHT PCPN OVER NORTHEASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA
SAT AFTN WITH A SHORTWAVE JUST TO THE NORTH. WILL KEEP THINGS DRY
FOR NOW THOUGH DURING THIS TIME WITH LACK OF SFC FORCING CURRENTLY
NOTED.

QUICK SHOT OF CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY DROP 850MB
TEMPS TO AROUND 15 DEGREES CELSIUS...RESULTING IN HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 80S. THE COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE HIGH BUILDS
IN...WITH 850MB TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK TO NEAR 20 DEGREES CELSIUS BY
SAT AFTN. LOWS FRIDAY NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS NEARING 90 ON
SATURDAY. DEW PTS IN THE 60S SAT SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES WELL BELOW
ADVISORY LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
FOR SUN INTO MON WITH HIGH PRESS DOMINATING CONDITIONS BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT LINGERS OFF THE DELMARVA COAST AS IT
WEAKENS... THEREFORE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS TO THE SE AND E
OF OUR CWA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING SOME AFTN SHOWERS ON MON
AND TUE... BUT CONFIDENCE WITH IT IS LOW ATTM... SO HAVE KEPT LOW
POPS. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES ON WED INCREASING THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOR THIS DAY. TEMPS WILL NEAR NORMAL SUN AND
GRADUALLY INCREASING INTO HE LOW 90S FOR WED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
T-STORM UNTIL 00Z TONIGHT. PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT AT THE USUAL TROUBLE SPOTS. CDFNT WILL CROSS THE AREA THU
AFTERNOON

VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR
LESS...SHIFTING FROM THE NW FRIDAY TO A WESTERLY FLOW SAT.

&&

.MARINE...SRLY WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT OVER THE BAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY THU. SCA WAS EXPANDED TO COVER THE ENTIRE
LENGTH OF THE BAY.

BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA GUSTS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ON THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY...WITH ALL WATERS BCMG SUB-SCA BY FRI AFT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
THEN LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537-539>541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...SEARS/IMR/LFR
MARINE...SEARS/IMR/LFR




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291847
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
247 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY LESS HUMIDITY AND MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE PROVIDING AN
AMPLE AMOUNT OF CAPE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...VERY WARM AIR ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
A LINE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING THE FROM THE WEST CURRENTLY RUNNING ALONG THE OHIO
INDIANA BORDER IS PROGGED TO REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING...BUT BY THIS TIME INSTABILITY FROM
DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AND DO NOT FORESEE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXTENDING MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN
ZANESVILLE...BEFORE DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT AND LEAVING MAINLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES EAST
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OVERNIGHT COLD FRONT ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. THE ONE THING TO KEEP IN
MIND THOUGH WILL BE RAIN RATES LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WHEN THERE IS DEEPER MOISTURE AS THE SETUP LOOKS TO FAVOR WARM
RAIN PROCESSES TO DOMINATE...SO ANY AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN WILL BE
NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POTENTIAL WATER CONCERNS.

THURSDAY WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO NORMALS AND DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN TO
THE LOWER 60S/UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL TO OUR EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE IN ITS WAKE. THIS
MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK DOWN TOWARDS SEASONAL
VALUES...WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
FRIDAY...SPELLING A PLEASANT AND DRY START TO THE WEEKEND.

NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AREA OPEN TO SHORT-WAVE TROFS
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. PRIMARY WAVE LOOKS TO ARRIVE SATURDAY
MORNING...SKIRTING THE NORTHERN FLANKS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT POPS IN THE CHANCE REALM AS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
IS LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND...BUT DRY AIR ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL PRECLUDE POPS FOR SUNDAY. MID-LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE HEADING INTO
THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT AS IT CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN VFR THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT...WITH
A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS THE
FRONT PASSES. FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR OR EAST OF LBE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE.


OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291847
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
247 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY LESS HUMIDITY AND MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE PROVIDING AN
AMPLE AMOUNT OF CAPE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...VERY WARM AIR ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
A LINE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING THE FROM THE WEST CURRENTLY RUNNING ALONG THE OHIO
INDIANA BORDER IS PROGGED TO REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING...BUT BY THIS TIME INSTABILITY FROM
DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AND DO NOT FORESEE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXTENDING MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN
ZANESVILLE...BEFORE DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT AND LEAVING MAINLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES EAST
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OVERNIGHT COLD FRONT ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. THE ONE THING TO KEEP IN
MIND THOUGH WILL BE RAIN RATES LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WHEN THERE IS DEEPER MOISTURE AS THE SETUP LOOKS TO FAVOR WARM
RAIN PROCESSES TO DOMINATE...SO ANY AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN WILL BE
NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POTENTIAL WATER CONCERNS.

THURSDAY WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO NORMALS AND DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN TO
THE LOWER 60S/UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL TO OUR EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE IN ITS WAKE. THIS
MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK DOWN TOWARDS SEASONAL
VALUES...WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
FRIDAY...SPELLING A PLEASANT AND DRY START TO THE WEEKEND.

NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AREA OPEN TO SHORT-WAVE TROFS
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. PRIMARY WAVE LOOKS TO ARRIVE SATURDAY
MORNING...SKIRTING THE NORTHERN FLANKS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT POPS IN THE CHANCE REALM AS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
IS LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND...BUT DRY AIR ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL PRECLUDE POPS FOR SUNDAY. MID-LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE HEADING INTO
THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT AS IT CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN VFR THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT...WITH
A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS THE
FRONT PASSES. FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR OR EAST OF LBE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE.


OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291847
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
247 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY LESS HUMIDITY AND MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE PROVIDING AN
AMPLE AMOUNT OF CAPE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...VERY WARM AIR ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
A LINE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING THE FROM THE WEST CURRENTLY RUNNING ALONG THE OHIO
INDIANA BORDER IS PROGGED TO REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING...BUT BY THIS TIME INSTABILITY FROM
DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AND DO NOT FORESEE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXTENDING MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN
ZANESVILLE...BEFORE DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT AND LEAVING MAINLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES EAST
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OVERNIGHT COLD FRONT ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. THE ONE THING TO KEEP IN
MIND THOUGH WILL BE RAIN RATES LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WHEN THERE IS DEEPER MOISTURE AS THE SETUP LOOKS TO FAVOR WARM
RAIN PROCESSES TO DOMINATE...SO ANY AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN WILL BE
NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POTENTIAL WATER CONCERNS.

THURSDAY WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO NORMALS AND DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN TO
THE LOWER 60S/UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL TO OUR EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE IN ITS WAKE. THIS
MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK DOWN TOWARDS SEASONAL
VALUES...WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
FRIDAY...SPELLING A PLEASANT AND DRY START TO THE WEEKEND.

NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AREA OPEN TO SHORT-WAVE TROFS
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. PRIMARY WAVE LOOKS TO ARRIVE SATURDAY
MORNING...SKIRTING THE NORTHERN FLANKS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT POPS IN THE CHANCE REALM AS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
IS LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND...BUT DRY AIR ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL PRECLUDE POPS FOR SUNDAY. MID-LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE HEADING INTO
THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT AS IT CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN VFR THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT...WITH
A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS THE
FRONT PASSES. FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR OR EAST OF LBE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE.


OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291725
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
125 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK OVER THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY SHWRS/TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO POP EARLY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA (SAVE FAR SE VA AND NE NC). THIS ACTIVITY IS
MAINLY DRIVEN BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG A
PIEDMONT TROUGH/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY. LITTLE TO NO
SUPPORT FOR STRONG/SVR TSTMS TODAY GIVEN LACK OF SHEAR AND NO
DISCERNIBLE UPR FEATURES TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS PCPN
WANING BY LATE AFTN/EVENING (DUE TO LOSS OF PEAK HEATING) AND THAT
IS THE WAY THE FORECAST HAS BEEN TRENDED. WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS
30-50% THRU ABOUT 5-6 PM FROM THE EASTERN PIEDMONT TO THE NORTHERN
NECK/EASTERN SHORE. SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE SE EXCEPT REMAINING
DRY VA BEACH/NORTHERN OBX. SHAVED A COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF HIGH
TEMPS DUE TO CLOUD COVER/PCPN...EXCEPT ACROSS SE AREAS WHERE LESS
CLOUDS WILL ALLOW WARMER TEMPS. HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S...EXCEPT
SOME LOW 90S WEST OF THE BAY INTO INTERIOR NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SEASONABLE TNGT AFTER ANY CONVECTION DIMINISHES BY MDNGT. LOW
TEMPS IN THE L/M 70S.

THURSDAY...
UPR RIDGING RETROGRADES A BIT THURSDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT...CHC POPS (30-50%) WILL REMAIN ACRS NNW AREAS DURING THE
AFTN...LWRG TO 15-20% ACRS FAR SE VA/CSTL NE NC. HI TEMPS IN THE
L90S...XCP M/U80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING
ACROSS FAR SE VA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY. HAVE CHC POPS
(30-50%) MOST AREAS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THROUGH MIDDAY
FRI...THEN FOCUS LINGERING CHC POPS ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC FRIDAY
AFTN. DRY WX SHOULD RETURN TO NW AREAS BY LATE MORNING OR
AFTERNOON. LO TEMPS THU NGT IN THE 70S. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE U80S-
L90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE SW CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTING ACRS HUDSON BAY
CANADA. GFS/ECMWF INTO BETTER DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT...THEN FLATTEN OUT
SUN WITH A SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACRS THE MID ATLC BY MON.

FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS OVER FAR SRN VA/NC LATE FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND. BEST CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH/MAINLY
NE NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT EVEN HERE WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20-30%
POPS/PRIMARILY FOR THE AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME (TAPERED TO 20% FAR
SRN VA AND DRY ELSEWHERE). DID RAISE POPS A BIT FOR MON DUE TO THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AS THIS IS 5-6
DAYS OUT SO WILL GENLY KEEP POPS ONLY AT 30-40% SOUTH TO 20% NORTH.
KEEPING POPS AROUND 20% ALL AREAS TUE. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE
MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND.
LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NMRS SHWRS DVLPG ALONG SVRL BNDRYS ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTRN. MAIN
SFC TROF LCTD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE SHWRS WERE NOTED MOST OF
THE MORNING IVOF RIC. SHWRS DVLPNG ALONG A SEABREEZE ACROSS THE
DELMARVA WITH ECHOES REMAINING JUST E OF SBY. SE FLOW ALONG WITH
OFFSHORE RIDGING KEEPING SERN TAF SITES DRY FOR NOW.

NO THUNDER NOTED SO WENT WITH A VCSH AT BOTH RIC/SBY FOR THE NEXT
FEW HRS BUT KEPT SERN TAF SITES DRY AS CONFIDENCE THERE RTHR LOW
FOR ANY SHWRS TO DVLP. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND PSBL IFR VSBYS WITH ANY
SHWR THAT DOES CROSS A TAF SITE. DCRG CLDNS BY OR SHORTLY AFTR 00Z
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES.

A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACRS THE MID ATLC REGION THU THRU FRI AFTN.
THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE SCTD TSTM CHCS AT ALL TAF SITES DURING
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU THU NGT. WEAK SFC HI
PRES IS CENTERED OFF THE CST WITH WEAK SFC TROFFING INLAND ACRS
THE PIEDMONT AND CSTL PLAIN. S/SW WINDS 5-10 KT WERE OCCURRING
EARLY THIS MORNG. MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT WINDS MAY BE A
LITTLE STRONGER LATE THIS AFTN/TNGT...AS SFC/LEE TROF OVER VA
DEEPENS SLIGHTLY AND HELPS S/SE WINDS AVG NEAR 15 KT IN THE CHES
BAY. COULD BE A FEW HRS WORTH OF 20 KT GUSTS IN THE BAY...BUT TOO
MARGINAL TO CONSIDER ANY SCA HEADLINES FOR NOW. WAVES GENERALLY
1-2 FT IN THE BAY...BUT WILL PROBABLY BLD TO 2-3 FT THIS EVENG.
SEAS 2-3 FT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WTRS LATE THU...THEN STALLS
SSE OF THE AREA BY LATE FRI. S/SE WINDS AVG 10-15 KT...TURNING
SSW THU NGT. NOT A STRONG COOL SURGE ON FRI...AS WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NNE FRI MORNG INTO FRI AFTN...THEN TURN TO THE ESE BY LATE IN
THE DAY. WINDS THEN TURN BACK TO THE SSW FOR FRI NGT AND SAT...AS
THE FRONT DISSIPATES SSE OF THE REGION. WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...TMG




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291725
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
125 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK OVER THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY SHWRS/TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO POP EARLY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA (SAVE FAR SE VA AND NE NC). THIS ACTIVITY IS
MAINLY DRIVEN BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG A
PIEDMONT TROUGH/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY. LITTLE TO NO
SUPPORT FOR STRONG/SVR TSTMS TODAY GIVEN LACK OF SHEAR AND NO
DISCERNIBLE UPR FEATURES TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS PCPN
WANING BY LATE AFTN/EVENING (DUE TO LOSS OF PEAK HEATING) AND THAT
IS THE WAY THE FORECAST HAS BEEN TRENDED. WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS
30-50% THRU ABOUT 5-6 PM FROM THE EASTERN PIEDMONT TO THE NORTHERN
NECK/EASTERN SHORE. SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE SE EXCEPT REMAINING
DRY VA BEACH/NORTHERN OBX. SHAVED A COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF HIGH
TEMPS DUE TO CLOUD COVER/PCPN...EXCEPT ACROSS SE AREAS WHERE LESS
CLOUDS WILL ALLOW WARMER TEMPS. HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S...EXCEPT
SOME LOW 90S WEST OF THE BAY INTO INTERIOR NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SEASONABLE TNGT AFTER ANY CONVECTION DIMINISHES BY MDNGT. LOW
TEMPS IN THE L/M 70S.

THURSDAY...
UPR RIDGING RETROGRADES A BIT THURSDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT...CHC POPS (30-50%) WILL REMAIN ACRS NNW AREAS DURING THE
AFTN...LWRG TO 15-20% ACRS FAR SE VA/CSTL NE NC. HI TEMPS IN THE
L90S...XCP M/U80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING
ACROSS FAR SE VA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY. HAVE CHC POPS
(30-50%) MOST AREAS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THROUGH MIDDAY
FRI...THEN FOCUS LINGERING CHC POPS ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC FRIDAY
AFTN. DRY WX SHOULD RETURN TO NW AREAS BY LATE MORNING OR
AFTERNOON. LO TEMPS THU NGT IN THE 70S. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE U80S-
L90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE SW CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTING ACRS HUDSON BAY
CANADA. GFS/ECMWF INTO BETTER DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT...THEN FLATTEN OUT
SUN WITH A SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACRS THE MID ATLC BY MON.

FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS OVER FAR SRN VA/NC LATE FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND. BEST CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH/MAINLY
NE NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT EVEN HERE WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20-30%
POPS/PRIMARILY FOR THE AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME (TAPERED TO 20% FAR
SRN VA AND DRY ELSEWHERE). DID RAISE POPS A BIT FOR MON DUE TO THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AS THIS IS 5-6
DAYS OUT SO WILL GENLY KEEP POPS ONLY AT 30-40% SOUTH TO 20% NORTH.
KEEPING POPS AROUND 20% ALL AREAS TUE. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE
MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND.
LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NMRS SHWRS DVLPG ALONG SVRL BNDRYS ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTRN. MAIN
SFC TROF LCTD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE SHWRS WERE NOTED MOST OF
THE MORNING IVOF RIC. SHWRS DVLPNG ALONG A SEABREEZE ACROSS THE
DELMARVA WITH ECHOES REMAINING JUST E OF SBY. SE FLOW ALONG WITH
OFFSHORE RIDGING KEEPING SERN TAF SITES DRY FOR NOW.

NO THUNDER NOTED SO WENT WITH A VCSH AT BOTH RIC/SBY FOR THE NEXT
FEW HRS BUT KEPT SERN TAF SITES DRY AS CONFIDENCE THERE RTHR LOW
FOR ANY SHWRS TO DVLP. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND PSBL IFR VSBYS WITH ANY
SHWR THAT DOES CROSS A TAF SITE. DCRG CLDNS BY OR SHORTLY AFTR 00Z
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES.

A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACRS THE MID ATLC REGION THU THRU FRI AFTN.
THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE SCTD TSTM CHCS AT ALL TAF SITES DURING
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU THU NGT. WEAK SFC HI
PRES IS CENTERED OFF THE CST WITH WEAK SFC TROFFING INLAND ACRS
THE PIEDMONT AND CSTL PLAIN. S/SW WINDS 5-10 KT WERE OCCURRING
EARLY THIS MORNG. MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT WINDS MAY BE A
LITTLE STRONGER LATE THIS AFTN/TNGT...AS SFC/LEE TROF OVER VA
DEEPENS SLIGHTLY AND HELPS S/SE WINDS AVG NEAR 15 KT IN THE CHES
BAY. COULD BE A FEW HRS WORTH OF 20 KT GUSTS IN THE BAY...BUT TOO
MARGINAL TO CONSIDER ANY SCA HEADLINES FOR NOW. WAVES GENERALLY
1-2 FT IN THE BAY...BUT WILL PROBABLY BLD TO 2-3 FT THIS EVENG.
SEAS 2-3 FT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WTRS LATE THU...THEN STALLS
SSE OF THE AREA BY LATE FRI. S/SE WINDS AVG 10-15 KT...TURNING
SSW THU NGT. NOT A STRONG COOL SURGE ON FRI...AS WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NNE FRI MORNG INTO FRI AFTN...THEN TURN TO THE ESE BY LATE IN
THE DAY. WINDS THEN TURN BACK TO THE SSW FOR FRI NGT AND SAT...AS
THE FRONT DISSIPATES SSE OF THE REGION. WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...TMG




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291725
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
125 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK OVER THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY SHWRS/TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO POP EARLY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA (SAVE FAR SE VA AND NE NC). THIS ACTIVITY IS
MAINLY DRIVEN BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG A
PIEDMONT TROUGH/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY. LITTLE TO NO
SUPPORT FOR STRONG/SVR TSTMS TODAY GIVEN LACK OF SHEAR AND NO
DISCERNIBLE UPR FEATURES TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS PCPN
WANING BY LATE AFTN/EVENING (DUE TO LOSS OF PEAK HEATING) AND THAT
IS THE WAY THE FORECAST HAS BEEN TRENDED. WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS
30-50% THRU ABOUT 5-6 PM FROM THE EASTERN PIEDMONT TO THE NORTHERN
NECK/EASTERN SHORE. SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE SE EXCEPT REMAINING
DRY VA BEACH/NORTHERN OBX. SHAVED A COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF HIGH
TEMPS DUE TO CLOUD COVER/PCPN...EXCEPT ACROSS SE AREAS WHERE LESS
CLOUDS WILL ALLOW WARMER TEMPS. HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S...EXCEPT
SOME LOW 90S WEST OF THE BAY INTO INTERIOR NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SEASONABLE TNGT AFTER ANY CONVECTION DIMINISHES BY MDNGT. LOW
TEMPS IN THE L/M 70S.

THURSDAY...
UPR RIDGING RETROGRADES A BIT THURSDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT...CHC POPS (30-50%) WILL REMAIN ACRS NNW AREAS DURING THE
AFTN...LWRG TO 15-20% ACRS FAR SE VA/CSTL NE NC. HI TEMPS IN THE
L90S...XCP M/U80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING
ACROSS FAR SE VA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY. HAVE CHC POPS
(30-50%) MOST AREAS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THROUGH MIDDAY
FRI...THEN FOCUS LINGERING CHC POPS ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC FRIDAY
AFTN. DRY WX SHOULD RETURN TO NW AREAS BY LATE MORNING OR
AFTERNOON. LO TEMPS THU NGT IN THE 70S. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE U80S-
L90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE SW CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTING ACRS HUDSON BAY
CANADA. GFS/ECMWF INTO BETTER DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT...THEN FLATTEN OUT
SUN WITH A SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACRS THE MID ATLC BY MON.

FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS OVER FAR SRN VA/NC LATE FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND. BEST CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH/MAINLY
NE NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT EVEN HERE WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20-30%
POPS/PRIMARILY FOR THE AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME (TAPERED TO 20% FAR
SRN VA AND DRY ELSEWHERE). DID RAISE POPS A BIT FOR MON DUE TO THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AS THIS IS 5-6
DAYS OUT SO WILL GENLY KEEP POPS ONLY AT 30-40% SOUTH TO 20% NORTH.
KEEPING POPS AROUND 20% ALL AREAS TUE. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE
MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND.
LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NMRS SHWRS DVLPG ALONG SVRL BNDRYS ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTRN. MAIN
SFC TROF LCTD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE SHWRS WERE NOTED MOST OF
THE MORNING IVOF RIC. SHWRS DVLPNG ALONG A SEABREEZE ACROSS THE
DELMARVA WITH ECHOES REMAINING JUST E OF SBY. SE FLOW ALONG WITH
OFFSHORE RIDGING KEEPING SERN TAF SITES DRY FOR NOW.

NO THUNDER NOTED SO WENT WITH A VCSH AT BOTH RIC/SBY FOR THE NEXT
FEW HRS BUT KEPT SERN TAF SITES DRY AS CONFIDENCE THERE RTHR LOW
FOR ANY SHWRS TO DVLP. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND PSBL IFR VSBYS WITH ANY
SHWR THAT DOES CROSS A TAF SITE. DCRG CLDNS BY OR SHORTLY AFTR 00Z
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES.

A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACRS THE MID ATLC REGION THU THRU FRI AFTN.
THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE SCTD TSTM CHCS AT ALL TAF SITES DURING
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU THU NGT. WEAK SFC HI
PRES IS CENTERED OFF THE CST WITH WEAK SFC TROFFING INLAND ACRS
THE PIEDMONT AND CSTL PLAIN. S/SW WINDS 5-10 KT WERE OCCURRING
EARLY THIS MORNG. MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT WINDS MAY BE A
LITTLE STRONGER LATE THIS AFTN/TNGT...AS SFC/LEE TROF OVER VA
DEEPENS SLIGHTLY AND HELPS S/SE WINDS AVG NEAR 15 KT IN THE CHES
BAY. COULD BE A FEW HRS WORTH OF 20 KT GUSTS IN THE BAY...BUT TOO
MARGINAL TO CONSIDER ANY SCA HEADLINES FOR NOW. WAVES GENERALLY
1-2 FT IN THE BAY...BUT WILL PROBABLY BLD TO 2-3 FT THIS EVENG.
SEAS 2-3 FT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WTRS LATE THU...THEN STALLS
SSE OF THE AREA BY LATE FRI. S/SE WINDS AVG 10-15 KT...TURNING
SSW THU NGT. NOT A STRONG COOL SURGE ON FRI...AS WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NNE FRI MORNG INTO FRI AFTN...THEN TURN TO THE ESE BY LATE IN
THE DAY. WINDS THEN TURN BACK TO THE SSW FOR FRI NGT AND SAT...AS
THE FRONT DISSIPATES SSE OF THE REGION. WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...TMG




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291725
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
125 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK OVER THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY SHWRS/TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO POP EARLY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA (SAVE FAR SE VA AND NE NC). THIS ACTIVITY IS
MAINLY DRIVEN BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG A
PIEDMONT TROUGH/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY. LITTLE TO NO
SUPPORT FOR STRONG/SVR TSTMS TODAY GIVEN LACK OF SHEAR AND NO
DISCERNIBLE UPR FEATURES TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS PCPN
WANING BY LATE AFTN/EVENING (DUE TO LOSS OF PEAK HEATING) AND THAT
IS THE WAY THE FORECAST HAS BEEN TRENDED. WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS
30-50% THRU ABOUT 5-6 PM FROM THE EASTERN PIEDMONT TO THE NORTHERN
NECK/EASTERN SHORE. SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE SE EXCEPT REMAINING
DRY VA BEACH/NORTHERN OBX. SHAVED A COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF HIGH
TEMPS DUE TO CLOUD COVER/PCPN...EXCEPT ACROSS SE AREAS WHERE LESS
CLOUDS WILL ALLOW WARMER TEMPS. HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S...EXCEPT
SOME LOW 90S WEST OF THE BAY INTO INTERIOR NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SEASONABLE TNGT AFTER ANY CONVECTION DIMINISHES BY MDNGT. LOW
TEMPS IN THE L/M 70S.

THURSDAY...
UPR RIDGING RETROGRADES A BIT THURSDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT...CHC POPS (30-50%) WILL REMAIN ACRS NNW AREAS DURING THE
AFTN...LWRG TO 15-20% ACRS FAR SE VA/CSTL NE NC. HI TEMPS IN THE
L90S...XCP M/U80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING
ACROSS FAR SE VA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY. HAVE CHC POPS
(30-50%) MOST AREAS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THROUGH MIDDAY
FRI...THEN FOCUS LINGERING CHC POPS ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC FRIDAY
AFTN. DRY WX SHOULD RETURN TO NW AREAS BY LATE MORNING OR
AFTERNOON. LO TEMPS THU NGT IN THE 70S. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE U80S-
L90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE SW CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTING ACRS HUDSON BAY
CANADA. GFS/ECMWF INTO BETTER DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT...THEN FLATTEN OUT
SUN WITH A SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACRS THE MID ATLC BY MON.

FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS OVER FAR SRN VA/NC LATE FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND. BEST CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH/MAINLY
NE NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT EVEN HERE WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20-30%
POPS/PRIMARILY FOR THE AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME (TAPERED TO 20% FAR
SRN VA AND DRY ELSEWHERE). DID RAISE POPS A BIT FOR MON DUE TO THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AS THIS IS 5-6
DAYS OUT SO WILL GENLY KEEP POPS ONLY AT 30-40% SOUTH TO 20% NORTH.
KEEPING POPS AROUND 20% ALL AREAS TUE. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE
MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND.
LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NMRS SHWRS DVLPG ALONG SVRL BNDRYS ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTRN. MAIN
SFC TROF LCTD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE SHWRS WERE NOTED MOST OF
THE MORNING IVOF RIC. SHWRS DVLPNG ALONG A SEABREEZE ACROSS THE
DELMARVA WITH ECHOES REMAINING JUST E OF SBY. SE FLOW ALONG WITH
OFFSHORE RIDGING KEEPING SERN TAF SITES DRY FOR NOW.

NO THUNDER NOTED SO WENT WITH A VCSH AT BOTH RIC/SBY FOR THE NEXT
FEW HRS BUT KEPT SERN TAF SITES DRY AS CONFIDENCE THERE RTHR LOW
FOR ANY SHWRS TO DVLP. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND PSBL IFR VSBYS WITH ANY
SHWR THAT DOES CROSS A TAF SITE. DCRG CLDNS BY OR SHORTLY AFTR 00Z
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES.

A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACRS THE MID ATLC REGION THU THRU FRI AFTN.
THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE SCTD TSTM CHCS AT ALL TAF SITES DURING
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU THU NGT. WEAK SFC HI
PRES IS CENTERED OFF THE CST WITH WEAK SFC TROFFING INLAND ACRS
THE PIEDMONT AND CSTL PLAIN. S/SW WINDS 5-10 KT WERE OCCURRING
EARLY THIS MORNG. MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT WINDS MAY BE A
LITTLE STRONGER LATE THIS AFTN/TNGT...AS SFC/LEE TROF OVER VA
DEEPENS SLIGHTLY AND HELPS S/SE WINDS AVG NEAR 15 KT IN THE CHES
BAY. COULD BE A FEW HRS WORTH OF 20 KT GUSTS IN THE BAY...BUT TOO
MARGINAL TO CONSIDER ANY SCA HEADLINES FOR NOW. WAVES GENERALLY
1-2 FT IN THE BAY...BUT WILL PROBABLY BLD TO 2-3 FT THIS EVENG.
SEAS 2-3 FT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WTRS LATE THU...THEN STALLS
SSE OF THE AREA BY LATE FRI. S/SE WINDS AVG 10-15 KT...TURNING
SSW THU NGT. NOT A STRONG COOL SURGE ON FRI...AS WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NNE FRI MORNG INTO FRI AFTN...THEN TURN TO THE ESE BY LATE IN
THE DAY. WINDS THEN TURN BACK TO THE SSW FOR FRI NGT AND SAT...AS
THE FRONT DISSIPATES SSE OF THE REGION. WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...TMG




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291645
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1245 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK OVER THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY SHWRS/TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO POP EARLY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA (SAVE FAR SE VA AND NE NC). THIS ACTIVITY IS
MAINLY DRIVEN BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG A
PIEDMONT TROUGH/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY. LITTLE TO NO
SUPPORT FOR STRONG/SVR TSTMS TODAY GIVEN LACK OF SHEAR AND NO
DISCERNIBLE UPR FEATURES TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS PCPN
WANING BY LATE AFTN/EVENING (DUE TO LOSS OF PEAK HEATING) AND THAT
IS THE WAY THE FORECAST HAS BEEN TRENDED. WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS
30-50% THRU ABOUT 5-6 PM FROM THE EASTERN PIEDMONT TO THE NORTHERN
NECK/EASTERN SHORE. SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE SE EXCEPT REMAINING
DRY VA BEACH/NORTHERN OBX. SHAVED A COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF HIGH
TEMPS DUE TO CLOUD COVER/PCPN...EXCEPT ACROSS SE AREAS WHERE LESS
CLOUDS WILL ALLOW WARMER TEMPS. HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S...EXCEPT
SOME LOW 90S WEST OF THE BAY INTO INTERIOR NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SEASONABLE TNGT AFTER ANY CONVECTION DIMINISHES BY MDNGT. LOW
TEMPS IN THE L/M 70S.

THURSDAY...
UPR RIDGING RETROGRADES A BIT THURSDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT...CHC POPS (30-50%) WILL REMAIN ACRS NNW AREAS DURING THE
AFTN...LWRG TO 15-20% ACRS FAR SE VA/CSTL NE NC. HI TEMPS IN THE
L90S...XCP M/U80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING
ACROSS FAR SE VA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY. HAVE CHC POPS
(30-50%) MOST AREAS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THROUGH MIDDAY
FRI...THEN FOCUS LINGERING CHC POPS ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC FRIDAY
AFTN. DRY WX SHOULD RETURN TO NW AREAS BY LATE MORNING OR
AFTERNOON. LO TEMPS THU NGT IN THE 70S. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE U80S-
L90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE SW CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTING ACRS HUDSON BAY
CANADA. GFS/ECMWF INTO BETTER DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT...THEN FLATTEN OUT
SUN WITH A SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACRS THE MID ATLC BY MON.

FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS OVER FAR SRN VA/NC LATE FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND. BEST CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH/MAINLY
NE NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT EVEN HERE WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20-30%
POPS/PRIMARILY FOR THE AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME (TAPERED TO 20% FAR
SRN VA AND DRY ELSEWHERE). DID RAISE POPS A BIT FOR MON DUE TO THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AS THIS IS 5-6
DAYS OUT SO WILL GENLY KEEP POPS ONLY AT 30-40% SOUTH TO 20% NORTH.
KEEPING POPS AROUND 20% ALL AREAS TUE. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE
MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND.
LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPR LEVEL RIDGING WILL EXPAND EWD FM THE SRN PLAINS TODAY. THIS
WILL HELP TO LIMIT AFTN TSTMS FOR THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA
(INCLUDING TAF SITES KSBY/KPHF/KORF/KECG). HOWEVER...THERE IS
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND ENERGY WRAPPING ARND THE UPR RIDGE TO
KEEP VCSH AT KRIC (INCLUDING AREAS ALONG AND W OF INTERSTATE 95).
OVERALL SHEAR REMAINS VERY WEAK...THEREFORE THE MAIN THREAT WITH
AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING QUICK REDUCTIONS
TO CIGS (MVFR) AND VSBYS (IFR). A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY PUSH
INTO AND ACRS THE MID ATLC REGION THU THRU FRI AFTN. THIS FRONT
WILL PROVIDE SCTD TSTM CHCS AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU THU NGT. WEAK SFC HI
PRES IS CENTERED OFF THE CST WITH WEAK SFC TROFFING INLAND ACRS
THE PIEDMONT AND CSTL PLAIN. S/SW WINDS 5-10 KT WERE OCCURRING
EARLY THIS MORNG. MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT WINDS MAY BE A
LITTLE STRONGER LATE THIS AFTN/TNGT...AS SFC/LEE TROF OVER VA
DEEPENS SLIGHTLY AND HELPS S/SE WINDS AVG NEAR 15 KT IN THE CHES
BAY. COULD BE A FEW HRS WORTH OF 20 KT GUSTS IN THE BAY...BUT TOO
MARGINAL TO CONSIDER ANY SCA HEADLINES FOR NOW. WAVES GENERALLY
1-2 FT IN THE BAY...BUT WILL PROBABLY BLD TO 2-3 FT THIS EVENG.
SEAS 2-3 FT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WTRS LATE THU...THEN STALLS
SSE OF THE AREA BY LATE FRI. S/SE WINDS AVG 10-15 KT...TURNING
SSW THU NGT. NOT A STRONG COOL SURGE ON FRI...AS WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NNE FRI MORNG INTO FRI AFTN...THEN TURN TO THE ESE BY LATE IN
THE DAY. WINDS THEN TURN BACK TO THE SSW FOR FRI NGT AND SAT...AS
THE FRONT DISSIPATES SSE OF THE REGION. WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291645
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1245 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK OVER THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY SHWRS/TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO POP EARLY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA (SAVE FAR SE VA AND NE NC). THIS ACTIVITY IS
MAINLY DRIVEN BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG A
PIEDMONT TROUGH/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY. LITTLE TO NO
SUPPORT FOR STRONG/SVR TSTMS TODAY GIVEN LACK OF SHEAR AND NO
DISCERNIBLE UPR FEATURES TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS PCPN
WANING BY LATE AFTN/EVENING (DUE TO LOSS OF PEAK HEATING) AND THAT
IS THE WAY THE FORECAST HAS BEEN TRENDED. WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS
30-50% THRU ABOUT 5-6 PM FROM THE EASTERN PIEDMONT TO THE NORTHERN
NECK/EASTERN SHORE. SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE SE EXCEPT REMAINING
DRY VA BEACH/NORTHERN OBX. SHAVED A COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF HIGH
TEMPS DUE TO CLOUD COVER/PCPN...EXCEPT ACROSS SE AREAS WHERE LESS
CLOUDS WILL ALLOW WARMER TEMPS. HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S...EXCEPT
SOME LOW 90S WEST OF THE BAY INTO INTERIOR NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SEASONABLE TNGT AFTER ANY CONVECTION DIMINISHES BY MDNGT. LOW
TEMPS IN THE L/M 70S.

THURSDAY...
UPR RIDGING RETROGRADES A BIT THURSDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT...CHC POPS (30-50%) WILL REMAIN ACRS NNW AREAS DURING THE
AFTN...LWRG TO 15-20% ACRS FAR SE VA/CSTL NE NC. HI TEMPS IN THE
L90S...XCP M/U80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING
ACROSS FAR SE VA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY. HAVE CHC POPS
(30-50%) MOST AREAS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THROUGH MIDDAY
FRI...THEN FOCUS LINGERING CHC POPS ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC FRIDAY
AFTN. DRY WX SHOULD RETURN TO NW AREAS BY LATE MORNING OR
AFTERNOON. LO TEMPS THU NGT IN THE 70S. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE U80S-
L90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE SW CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTING ACRS HUDSON BAY
CANADA. GFS/ECMWF INTO BETTER DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT...THEN FLATTEN OUT
SUN WITH A SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACRS THE MID ATLC BY MON.

FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS OVER FAR SRN VA/NC LATE FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND. BEST CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH/MAINLY
NE NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT EVEN HERE WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20-30%
POPS/PRIMARILY FOR THE AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME (TAPERED TO 20% FAR
SRN VA AND DRY ELSEWHERE). DID RAISE POPS A BIT FOR MON DUE TO THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AS THIS IS 5-6
DAYS OUT SO WILL GENLY KEEP POPS ONLY AT 30-40% SOUTH TO 20% NORTH.
KEEPING POPS AROUND 20% ALL AREAS TUE. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE
MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND.
LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPR LEVEL RIDGING WILL EXPAND EWD FM THE SRN PLAINS TODAY. THIS
WILL HELP TO LIMIT AFTN TSTMS FOR THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA
(INCLUDING TAF SITES KSBY/KPHF/KORF/KECG). HOWEVER...THERE IS
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND ENERGY WRAPPING ARND THE UPR RIDGE TO
KEEP VCSH AT KRIC (INCLUDING AREAS ALONG AND W OF INTERSTATE 95).
OVERALL SHEAR REMAINS VERY WEAK...THEREFORE THE MAIN THREAT WITH
AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING QUICK REDUCTIONS
TO CIGS (MVFR) AND VSBYS (IFR). A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY PUSH
INTO AND ACRS THE MID ATLC REGION THU THRU FRI AFTN. THIS FRONT
WILL PROVIDE SCTD TSTM CHCS AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU THU NGT. WEAK SFC HI
PRES IS CENTERED OFF THE CST WITH WEAK SFC TROFFING INLAND ACRS
THE PIEDMONT AND CSTL PLAIN. S/SW WINDS 5-10 KT WERE OCCURRING
EARLY THIS MORNG. MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT WINDS MAY BE A
LITTLE STRONGER LATE THIS AFTN/TNGT...AS SFC/LEE TROF OVER VA
DEEPENS SLIGHTLY AND HELPS S/SE WINDS AVG NEAR 15 KT IN THE CHES
BAY. COULD BE A FEW HRS WORTH OF 20 KT GUSTS IN THE BAY...BUT TOO
MARGINAL TO CONSIDER ANY SCA HEADLINES FOR NOW. WAVES GENERALLY
1-2 FT IN THE BAY...BUT WILL PROBABLY BLD TO 2-3 FT THIS EVENG.
SEAS 2-3 FT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WTRS LATE THU...THEN STALLS
SSE OF THE AREA BY LATE FRI. S/SE WINDS AVG 10-15 KT...TURNING
SSW THU NGT. NOT A STRONG COOL SURGE ON FRI...AS WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NNE FRI MORNG INTO FRI AFTN...THEN TURN TO THE ESE BY LATE IN
THE DAY. WINDS THEN TURN BACK TO THE SSW FOR FRI NGT AND SAT...AS
THE FRONT DISSIPATES SSE OF THE REGION. WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291645
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1245 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK OVER THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY SHWRS/TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO POP EARLY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA (SAVE FAR SE VA AND NE NC). THIS ACTIVITY IS
MAINLY DRIVEN BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG A
PIEDMONT TROUGH/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY. LITTLE TO NO
SUPPORT FOR STRONG/SVR TSTMS TODAY GIVEN LACK OF SHEAR AND NO
DISCERNIBLE UPR FEATURES TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS PCPN
WANING BY LATE AFTN/EVENING (DUE TO LOSS OF PEAK HEATING) AND THAT
IS THE WAY THE FORECAST HAS BEEN TRENDED. WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS
30-50% THRU ABOUT 5-6 PM FROM THE EASTERN PIEDMONT TO THE NORTHERN
NECK/EASTERN SHORE. SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE SE EXCEPT REMAINING
DRY VA BEACH/NORTHERN OBX. SHAVED A COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF HIGH
TEMPS DUE TO CLOUD COVER/PCPN...EXCEPT ACROSS SE AREAS WHERE LESS
CLOUDS WILL ALLOW WARMER TEMPS. HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S...EXCEPT
SOME LOW 90S WEST OF THE BAY INTO INTERIOR NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SEASONABLE TNGT AFTER ANY CONVECTION DIMINISHES BY MDNGT. LOW
TEMPS IN THE L/M 70S.

THURSDAY...
UPR RIDGING RETROGRADES A BIT THURSDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT...CHC POPS (30-50%) WILL REMAIN ACRS NNW AREAS DURING THE
AFTN...LWRG TO 15-20% ACRS FAR SE VA/CSTL NE NC. HI TEMPS IN THE
L90S...XCP M/U80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING
ACROSS FAR SE VA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY. HAVE CHC POPS
(30-50%) MOST AREAS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THROUGH MIDDAY
FRI...THEN FOCUS LINGERING CHC POPS ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC FRIDAY
AFTN. DRY WX SHOULD RETURN TO NW AREAS BY LATE MORNING OR
AFTERNOON. LO TEMPS THU NGT IN THE 70S. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE U80S-
L90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE SW CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTING ACRS HUDSON BAY
CANADA. GFS/ECMWF INTO BETTER DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT...THEN FLATTEN OUT
SUN WITH A SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACRS THE MID ATLC BY MON.

FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS OVER FAR SRN VA/NC LATE FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND. BEST CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH/MAINLY
NE NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT EVEN HERE WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20-30%
POPS/PRIMARILY FOR THE AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME (TAPERED TO 20% FAR
SRN VA AND DRY ELSEWHERE). DID RAISE POPS A BIT FOR MON DUE TO THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AS THIS IS 5-6
DAYS OUT SO WILL GENLY KEEP POPS ONLY AT 30-40% SOUTH TO 20% NORTH.
KEEPING POPS AROUND 20% ALL AREAS TUE. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE
MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND.
LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPR LEVEL RIDGING WILL EXPAND EWD FM THE SRN PLAINS TODAY. THIS
WILL HELP TO LIMIT AFTN TSTMS FOR THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA
(INCLUDING TAF SITES KSBY/KPHF/KORF/KECG). HOWEVER...THERE IS
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND ENERGY WRAPPING ARND THE UPR RIDGE TO
KEEP VCSH AT KRIC (INCLUDING AREAS ALONG AND W OF INTERSTATE 95).
OVERALL SHEAR REMAINS VERY WEAK...THEREFORE THE MAIN THREAT WITH
AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING QUICK REDUCTIONS
TO CIGS (MVFR) AND VSBYS (IFR). A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY PUSH
INTO AND ACRS THE MID ATLC REGION THU THRU FRI AFTN. THIS FRONT
WILL PROVIDE SCTD TSTM CHCS AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU THU NGT. WEAK SFC HI
PRES IS CENTERED OFF THE CST WITH WEAK SFC TROFFING INLAND ACRS
THE PIEDMONT AND CSTL PLAIN. S/SW WINDS 5-10 KT WERE OCCURRING
EARLY THIS MORNG. MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT WINDS MAY BE A
LITTLE STRONGER LATE THIS AFTN/TNGT...AS SFC/LEE TROF OVER VA
DEEPENS SLIGHTLY AND HELPS S/SE WINDS AVG NEAR 15 KT IN THE CHES
BAY. COULD BE A FEW HRS WORTH OF 20 KT GUSTS IN THE BAY...BUT TOO
MARGINAL TO CONSIDER ANY SCA HEADLINES FOR NOW. WAVES GENERALLY
1-2 FT IN THE BAY...BUT WILL PROBABLY BLD TO 2-3 FT THIS EVENG.
SEAS 2-3 FT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WTRS LATE THU...THEN STALLS
SSE OF THE AREA BY LATE FRI. S/SE WINDS AVG 10-15 KT...TURNING
SSW THU NGT. NOT A STRONG COOL SURGE ON FRI...AS WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NNE FRI MORNG INTO FRI AFTN...THEN TURN TO THE ESE BY LATE IN
THE DAY. WINDS THEN TURN BACK TO THE SSW FOR FRI NGT AND SAT...AS
THE FRONT DISSIPATES SSE OF THE REGION. WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291427
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1027 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY TODAY...THEN LESS HUMID LATER TOMORROW INTO LATE
WEEK BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WARM AND HUMID DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
60S. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE RIDGES BY
LATE AFTERNOON...AND POTENTIALLY ACROSS EASTERN OH / NW PA ZONES
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. THE ONLY CHANGE FROM THE
INHERITED FORECAST WAS TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE MAX DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. THIS CHANGE WAS BASED OFF OF 12Z SOUNDINGS AND
LATEST BIAS CORRECTED MODEL DATA WHICH HAS BEEN PERFORMING WELL
WITH THE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH CONTINUED
CHANCE POPS. OVERNIGHT TIMING AND A FAIRLY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL
KEEP ONLY CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH FROPA. LOWER DEW
POINTS WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY
AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DIMINISH NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS INTO THE EASTERN STATES NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP LOWER DEW POINTS WITH NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES INTO LATE WEEK. ADDED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY
AS MODELS LOOK TO BRING A SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGING IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE UNDER BROAD EASTERN CONUS
UPPER TROUGHING...BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONALLY WARM WEATHER
INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK WITH CROSSING SHORTWAVES. FOLLOWED
CLOSE TO WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE...WHICH SMOOTHS OUT SOME EARLY
WEEK OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH DIURNAL CU ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO PORTS W OF THE PA BORDER BY THIS
EVENING...SO INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION AT ZZV. HOW LONG PRECIP
CONTINUES ALONG THE FRONT IS IN QUESTION AS IT MOVES INTO PA LATER
IN THE EVENING...SO ONLY INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION FOR THE REST OF
THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291427
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1027 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY TODAY...THEN LESS HUMID LATER TOMORROW INTO LATE
WEEK BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WARM AND HUMID DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
60S. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE RIDGES BY
LATE AFTERNOON...AND POTENTIALLY ACROSS EASTERN OH / NW PA ZONES
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. THE ONLY CHANGE FROM THE
INHERITED FORECAST WAS TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE MAX DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. THIS CHANGE WAS BASED OFF OF 12Z SOUNDINGS AND
LATEST BIAS CORRECTED MODEL DATA WHICH HAS BEEN PERFORMING WELL
WITH THE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH CONTINUED
CHANCE POPS. OVERNIGHT TIMING AND A FAIRLY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL
KEEP ONLY CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH FROPA. LOWER DEW
POINTS WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY
AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DIMINISH NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS INTO THE EASTERN STATES NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP LOWER DEW POINTS WITH NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES INTO LATE WEEK. ADDED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY
AS MODELS LOOK TO BRING A SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGING IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE UNDER BROAD EASTERN CONUS
UPPER TROUGHING...BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONALLY WARM WEATHER
INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK WITH CROSSING SHORTWAVES. FOLLOWED
CLOSE TO WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE...WHICH SMOOTHS OUT SOME EARLY
WEEK OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH DIURNAL CU ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO PORTS W OF THE PA BORDER BY THIS
EVENING...SO INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION AT ZZV. HOW LONG PRECIP
CONTINUES ALONG THE FRONT IS IN QUESTION AS IT MOVES INTO PA LATER
IN THE EVENING...SO ONLY INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION FOR THE REST OF
THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KLWX 291342 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
942 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
PERSISTS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

12Z IAD RAOB SHOWS MOISTURE EXTENDS DEEPER TODAY UP TO 600 MB AND
PWAT VALUES ARE UP TO 1.75 INCHES. EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
THIS MORNING MAY DELAY ONSET OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS BY A COUPLE
OF HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. STEERING FLOW IS A LITTLE STRONGER AND
BETTER DEFINED TODAY SUGGESTING STORMS WILL MOVE A LITTLE FASTER
BUT MOISTURE IS DEEPER WHICH MAY STILL POSE A THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINFALL.

HEAT INDICES APPEAR WILL GET AWFUL CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THIS AFTERNOON. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING 2-3F HIGHER THAN 24 HRS
AGO. A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER TODAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A DEG OR TWO
COOLER THAN YDAY KEEPING HEAT INDICES JUST BELOW 105F. WILL
MONITOR OBS CLOSELY AND ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY IF NECESSARY.

&&

.TONIGHT...COLD FRONT (NOW STRUNG OUT FROM THE PARENT LOW OVER
ONTARIO) CROSSES THE MID-ATLANTIC WITH PREFRONTAL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES REACHING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE INCREASING CLOUDS WITH MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY. POPS INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY PER DIURNAL TRENDS. FRONT IS A
BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN PREVIOUS...COMES IN QUICKER WITH AFTERNOON
LIKELY POPS FOR BALT-WASH METRO THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPS LOW TO
POSSIBLY MID 90S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHOULD IT PUSH THROUGH
SOONER...TEMPS WOULD BE MODERATED. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S RESULT
IN HEAT INDICES AROUND 100F.

THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT CLEARS THE SERN ZONES THURSDAY EVENING
WITH COOLER AIR TRAILING. MIN TEMPS 60S WEST OF I-95...LOW 70S
EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN FOR LAST DAY OF JULY THROUGH THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF AUGUST...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT. FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE CWA
BY 8 AM FRIDAY...THOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN MARYLAND. NOT MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE CHANGE WITH THIS
FRONT...AS TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE U80S/L90S. BUT
DEWPOINTS DROP AT LEAST TEN DEGREES...AND GENERALLY REMAIN AOB 65F
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
TEMPS REMAINING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE VERY LOW...WITH NO DECENT
SOURCE OF LIFT AND QUALITY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHUNTED OFF TO OUR
SOUTHEAST. WHILE LOW...BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP OCCUR MONDAY IN OUR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES AS MOISTURE RETURN SLOWLY COMMENCES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR VSBYS/POSSIBLE CIGS THROUGH SUNRISE UNDER WEAK FLOW AND CLEAR
SKIES...PARTICULARLY WHERE IT RAINED LATE TUESDAY. VFR THEN PREVAILS
INTO TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF LOW CHANCES FOR TSTMS...PARTICULARLY NEAR
KCHO THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES TERMINALS THURSDAY WITH
LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON FOR DC METROS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR SLY CHANNELING THIS EVENING SOUTH OF SANDY PT.
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE. WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES WATERS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

WINDS EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA FRIDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LOW CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WATERS MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/MSE
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...BAJ/MSE
MARINE...BAJ/MSE




000
FXUS61 KLWX 291342 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
942 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
PERSISTS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

12Z IAD RAOB SHOWS MOISTURE EXTENDS DEEPER TODAY UP TO 600 MB AND
PWAT VALUES ARE UP TO 1.75 INCHES. EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
THIS MORNING MAY DELAY ONSET OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS BY A COUPLE
OF HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. STEERING FLOW IS A LITTLE STRONGER AND
BETTER DEFINED TODAY SUGGESTING STORMS WILL MOVE A LITTLE FASTER
BUT MOISTURE IS DEEPER WHICH MAY STILL POSE A THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINFALL.

HEAT INDICES APPEAR WILL GET AWFUL CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THIS AFTERNOON. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING 2-3F HIGHER THAN 24 HRS
AGO. A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER TODAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A DEG OR TWO
COOLER THAN YDAY KEEPING HEAT INDICES JUST BELOW 105F. WILL
MONITOR OBS CLOSELY AND ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY IF NECESSARY.

&&

.TONIGHT...COLD FRONT (NOW STRUNG OUT FROM THE PARENT LOW OVER
ONTARIO) CROSSES THE MID-ATLANTIC WITH PREFRONTAL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES REACHING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE INCREASING CLOUDS WITH MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY. POPS INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY PER DIURNAL TRENDS. FRONT IS A
BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN PREVIOUS...COMES IN QUICKER WITH AFTERNOON
LIKELY POPS FOR BALT-WASH METRO THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPS LOW TO
POSSIBLY MID 90S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHOULD IT PUSH THROUGH
SOONER...TEMPS WOULD BE MODERATED. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S RESULT
IN HEAT INDICES AROUND 100F.

THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT CLEARS THE SERN ZONES THURSDAY EVENING
WITH COOLER AIR TRAILING. MIN TEMPS 60S WEST OF I-95...LOW 70S
EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN FOR LAST DAY OF JULY THROUGH THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF AUGUST...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT. FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE CWA
BY 8 AM FRIDAY...THOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN MARYLAND. NOT MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE CHANGE WITH THIS
FRONT...AS TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE U80S/L90S. BUT
DEWPOINTS DROP AT LEAST TEN DEGREES...AND GENERALLY REMAIN AOB 65F
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
TEMPS REMAINING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE VERY LOW...WITH NO DECENT
SOURCE OF LIFT AND QUALITY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHUNTED OFF TO OUR
SOUTHEAST. WHILE LOW...BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP OCCUR MONDAY IN OUR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES AS MOISTURE RETURN SLOWLY COMMENCES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR VSBYS/POSSIBLE CIGS THROUGH SUNRISE UNDER WEAK FLOW AND CLEAR
SKIES...PARTICULARLY WHERE IT RAINED LATE TUESDAY. VFR THEN PREVAILS
INTO TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF LOW CHANCES FOR TSTMS...PARTICULARLY NEAR
KCHO THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES TERMINALS THURSDAY WITH
LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON FOR DC METROS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR SLY CHANNELING THIS EVENING SOUTH OF SANDY PT.
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE. WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES WATERS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

WINDS EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA FRIDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LOW CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WATERS MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/MSE
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...BAJ/MSE
MARINE...BAJ/MSE



000
FXUS61 KLWX 291342 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
942 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
PERSISTS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

12Z IAD RAOB SHOWS MOISTURE EXTENDS DEEPER TODAY UP TO 600 MB AND
PWAT VALUES ARE UP TO 1.75 INCHES. EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
THIS MORNING MAY DELAY ONSET OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS BY A COUPLE
OF HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. STEERING FLOW IS A LITTLE STRONGER AND
BETTER DEFINED TODAY SUGGESTING STORMS WILL MOVE A LITTLE FASTER
BUT MOISTURE IS DEEPER WHICH MAY STILL POSE A THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINFALL.

HEAT INDICES APPEAR WILL GET AWFUL CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THIS AFTERNOON. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING 2-3F HIGHER THAN 24 HRS
AGO. A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER TODAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A DEG OR TWO
COOLER THAN YDAY KEEPING HEAT INDICES JUST BELOW 105F. WILL
MONITOR OBS CLOSELY AND ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY IF NECESSARY.

&&

.TONIGHT...COLD FRONT (NOW STRUNG OUT FROM THE PARENT LOW OVER
ONTARIO) CROSSES THE MID-ATLANTIC WITH PREFRONTAL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES REACHING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE INCREASING CLOUDS WITH MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY. POPS INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY PER DIURNAL TRENDS. FRONT IS A
BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN PREVIOUS...COMES IN QUICKER WITH AFTERNOON
LIKELY POPS FOR BALT-WASH METRO THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPS LOW TO
POSSIBLY MID 90S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHOULD IT PUSH THROUGH
SOONER...TEMPS WOULD BE MODERATED. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S RESULT
IN HEAT INDICES AROUND 100F.

THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT CLEARS THE SERN ZONES THURSDAY EVENING
WITH COOLER AIR TRAILING. MIN TEMPS 60S WEST OF I-95...LOW 70S
EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN FOR LAST DAY OF JULY THROUGH THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF AUGUST...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT. FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE CWA
BY 8 AM FRIDAY...THOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN MARYLAND. NOT MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE CHANGE WITH THIS
FRONT...AS TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE U80S/L90S. BUT
DEWPOINTS DROP AT LEAST TEN DEGREES...AND GENERALLY REMAIN AOB 65F
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
TEMPS REMAINING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE VERY LOW...WITH NO DECENT
SOURCE OF LIFT AND QUALITY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHUNTED OFF TO OUR
SOUTHEAST. WHILE LOW...BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP OCCUR MONDAY IN OUR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES AS MOISTURE RETURN SLOWLY COMMENCES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR VSBYS/POSSIBLE CIGS THROUGH SUNRISE UNDER WEAK FLOW AND CLEAR
SKIES...PARTICULARLY WHERE IT RAINED LATE TUESDAY. VFR THEN PREVAILS
INTO TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF LOW CHANCES FOR TSTMS...PARTICULARLY NEAR
KCHO THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES TERMINALS THURSDAY WITH
LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON FOR DC METROS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR SLY CHANNELING THIS EVENING SOUTH OF SANDY PT.
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE. WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES WATERS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

WINDS EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA FRIDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LOW CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WATERS MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/MSE
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...BAJ/MSE
MARINE...BAJ/MSE




000
FXUS61 KPHI 291320
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
920 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST TODAY. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT,
HOWEVER IT THEN SLOWS OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT
SHOULD CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE. A POTENTIALLY STRONGER COLD FRONT IS THEN SCHEDULED TO
ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY...THE BOUNDARY DRYING BECOMES EVIDENT BY FORENOON WITH
HIGHEST DEW POINTS AND MLCAPE THIS AFTN (400J) CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR DELMARVA FCST AREA WHERE AM CARRYING A
SLIGHT CHC FOR A THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN. PWAT INCREASES TO
1.7 INCHES THERE LATE TODAY. THIS AREA IS THE LEADING EDGE OF A
NEWD DEVELOPING INSTABILITY BURST WITH KI BY 00Z OF 34C ALONG MD`S
EASTERN SHORE.

ELSEWHERE...HOT HOT HOT AND USED THE GFS MAVMOS STRAIGHT UP. SEA
BREEZES WILL EVENTUALLY MITIGATE SOME OF THE PURE HEAT IN DE AND
NJ BUT THIS WILL BE A TOASTY DAY WITH 18C AT 850 AND NEAR RECORD
IN SOME PLACES. PLS SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR THE VULNERABLE
RECORDS.

KPHL...AM 80 PCT CONFIDENT OF 94. MAX SHOULD BE WITHIN THE RANGE
OF 93-95F. LESS CONFIDENT OF DEW POINT IN THE 16Z-18Z TIME FRAME
WHEN MAX HI SHOULD OCCUR.

MAX HI TODAY 98-99F...BASICALLY JUST BELOW URBAN CORRIDOR
CRITERIA OF 100...BUT SINCE FCST NEAR 100 THURSDAY AND WARM NIGHTS
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT (LOWS OF 76-77)...WE ISSUED A TWO
DAY WARNING.

SW WINDS THIS AFTN MAY GUST 15 MPH IN A FEW SPOTS WITH SEA BREEZESDEVELOPING
ALONG THE COASTS BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM.

CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
ANY SHOWERS ON THE DELMARVA SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 00Z.

THEREAFTER...SLY FLOW AND MORE HUMID WITH PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS
FORMING. PWAT INCREASES TO 1.9 INCHES BY MORNING ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR. MODELS HAVE A WEAK IB THRUST ACROSS DE AND S NJ
OVERNIGHT WHERE SCT OR ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS MIGHT
DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE ON PLACEMENT AND OCCURRENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE
AND THIS MAY NEED MODIFICATION IN LATER FORECASTS, POSSIBLY
WESTWARD INTO E PA.

TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND USED A BLEND OF 00Z/29 NAM/GFS MOS
WITH A FAVORING OF THE WARMER AVBL GUIDANCE.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE EXCEPT BELOW AVG ON CONVECTION
FORMING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A NARROWING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
THURSDAY THAT SHIFTS TO OUR EAST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DESPITE THIS TROUGH IN PLACE,
WE ARE MAINLY ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF IT THEREFORE A RATHER WARM
TO HOT AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THURSDAY
LOOKS TO BRING THE GREATEST CHC FOR CONVECTION, THEN WE AWAIT FOR
THE NEXT POTENTIALLY STRONGER FRONT TO ARRIVE DURING TUESDAY. WE
USED A MODEL BLEND THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN WENT WITH A
WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND THEREAFTER.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS A NARROWING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE, WE START TO BECOME INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTHERN CANADA. A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL PULL ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO
THE CWA WHICH WILL BE REFLECTED IN HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. THE AIR MASS AT 850 MB IS FORECAST TO BE
SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY THEREFORE ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS CLOUD COVER AND THE TIMING OF
CONVECTION ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THURSDAY.
IF THIS IS DELAYED LATE ENOUGH WITH MORE SUNSHINE, THEN HEAT
INDICES WILL BE A BIT HIGHER. THE INFLUENCE OF THE INCOMING UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH WILL OFFER SOME HEIGHT FALLS, HOWEVER A RATHER TOASTY
BOUNDARY LAYER LOOKS TO BE MAINTAINED.

WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS TO START THURSDAY WITH MAYBE A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM, WE THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO
GET TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR MANY AREAS ESPECIALLY THE
DELAWARE VALLEY. THIS PUTS HEAT INDICES VERY CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES
FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS OF MOST CONCERN FOR THE
URBAN CENTERS WHERE HEAT REMAINS TRAPPED DURING THE NIGHT AS WELL.
AS A RESULT, FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR FROM WILMINGTON TO
PHILADELPHIA TO TRENTON AND THE IMMEDIATE NEARBY LOCATIONS WE
OPTED TO CARRY AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY.

REGARDING CONVECTION, A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER IN THE
DAY HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE HOT AND HUMID
AIR MASS TO PROMOTE STORM INITIATION TO OUR WEST. IT IS NOT QUITE
CLEAR IF WE CAN GET SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN THE MORNING AS THE
MOISTURE POOLS, OTHERWISE WE FOCUS ON THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS AS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. THE GREATEST SHEAR
THOUGH IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH WHERE A MID LEVEL
SPEED MAX MOVES THROUGH. THE SIGNALS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATE A LINE/BROKEN LINE OR CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARRIVING
FROM THE WEST. IF ENOUGH ORGANIZATION CAN OCCUR AND ALSO FACTORING
IN PRECIPITATION LOADING OF THE DOWNDRAFTS, LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
COULD RESULT. IN ADDITION, PW VALUES ABOUT 2 INCHES WILL PROMOTE
TORRENTIAL RAIN WITHIN CONVECTIVE CORES AND THIS COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

THE CONVECTION SHOULD WANE DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS BUT THEN SLOWS AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST. THEREFORE WE
KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. THE
FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT. AS OF NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OFFSHORE WITH DRYING OCCURRING ACROSS OUR
AREA. ANOTHER WARM TO EVEN HOT DAY ON FRIDAY, HOWEVER THE DEW
POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NOTICEABLY LOWER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH IT MAY WEAKEN SOME SUNDAY AS A RIDGE IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD. THIS KEEPS A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT RIPPLES
OF ENERGY ALONG IT REMAIN TO OUR EAST. SINCE THE TRUE COOLING
AFFECTS FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARE RELEGATED WELL TO OUR
NORTH, THE VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS PERSIST ALTHOUGH DEW POINTS
MAY REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE. A WEAK FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS
TO MOVE THROUGH LATER SATURDAY, HOWEVER MUCH OF THE LIFT MAY
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE OFFSHORE FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS SOME ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT OUR WAY DURING
TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTION MAINLY DURING THAT
TIME. IT APPEARS THAT MANY AREAS SHOULD ADD TO THE STRETCH OF 90+
DEGREE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR WITH SCT CLOUDS AOA 6000 FT THIS AFTN. ISOLATED TSTMS
POSSIBLE VCNTY KGED AND KESN LATE THIS AFTN. SW WIND GUST NEAR 15
KT THIS AFTN EXCEPT SOUTH SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING
COASTAL LOCATIONS 16Z-18Z.

TONIGHT....VFR TO START THEN PATCHY MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN
FOG/STRATUS/ HAZE LATE, ESPECIALLY NW NJ AND PTNS E PA. CHANCE OF
A SHOWER OR TSTM VCNTY KPHL/KMIV TOWARD 10Z.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...SOME FOG/HAZE POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN MOSTLY VFR. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF A LINE. SOME
CEILING AND ESPECIALLY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
A TIME AS A RESULT. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS,
THEN DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS AT NIGHT AND BECOMING WEST-
NORTHWEST.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR AS A FRONT LINGERS OFFSHORE.
WEST- NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS FRIDAY, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY
NEAR 5 KNOTS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOY 44009 SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE DATA HAS RETURNED TO SERVICE.

NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS GENERALLY AOB 3 FT THROUGH
TONIGHT. SW WIND GUSTS LESS 15KT EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING SSE
THIS AFTN AND SLY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK... THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. A SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE THOUGH THURSDAY AHEAD
OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT, HOWEVER GUSTS SHOULD BE BELOW 25 KNOTS.
THE SEAS WILL RESPOND FOR A TIME, HOWEVER THEY SHOULD BE BELOW 5
FEET. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT, WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE. THE FRONT THEN LINGERS OFFSHORE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A SPOTTY MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS
RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE OCEAN COUNTY PORTION OF NEW JERSEY
OTHERWISE A LOW RISK ELSEWHERE.

OF CONCERN IS THE CONTINUED HOT WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL SST`S
PLAYING A ROLE IN SWIMMER BEHAVIOR. EVEN WITH A LOW RISK OF
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENT FORMATION, THEY CAN OCCUR. IT TAKES ONLY ONE
TO BE FATAL. FOR OUR SAFETY, LETS SWIM IN THE PRESENCE OF
LIFEGUARDS WHO ARE TRAINED TO WATCH, RESCUE AND OTHERWISE MINIMIZE
OCEAN WATER RELATED HAZARDS IN THE SWIMMING SURF ZONE. THANK YOU.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KACY RAINFALL 6.58 RANKED 14TH WETTEST NOW WITH THE POR DATING
BACK THROUGH 1874. WETTEST 13.09 IN 1959.

KABE WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE NEAR RECORD WARMTH THIS AFTERNOON-
JULY 29. THE RECORD THERE IS 96 SET IN 1954. RIGHT NOW WE`RE FCSTG
95.

KRDG AND KMPO MAY BE THE OTHER LOCATIONS WITHIN 2F OF THE RECORD
FOR THIS DATE

KRDG - 97 SET BACK IN 2002.
KMPO - 90 SET BACK IN 1949.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ070-071-
     102-104-106.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ015-
     017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG
CLIMATE...DRAG




000
FXUS61 KPHI 291320
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
920 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST TODAY. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT,
HOWEVER IT THEN SLOWS OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT
SHOULD CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE. A POTENTIALLY STRONGER COLD FRONT IS THEN SCHEDULED TO
ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY...THE BOUNDARY DRYING BECOMES EVIDENT BY FORENOON WITH
HIGHEST DEW POINTS AND MLCAPE THIS AFTN (400J) CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR DELMARVA FCST AREA WHERE AM CARRYING A
SLIGHT CHC FOR A THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN. PWAT INCREASES TO
1.7 INCHES THERE LATE TODAY. THIS AREA IS THE LEADING EDGE OF A
NEWD DEVELOPING INSTABILITY BURST WITH KI BY 00Z OF 34C ALONG MD`S
EASTERN SHORE.

ELSEWHERE...HOT HOT HOT AND USED THE GFS MAVMOS STRAIGHT UP. SEA
BREEZES WILL EVENTUALLY MITIGATE SOME OF THE PURE HEAT IN DE AND
NJ BUT THIS WILL BE A TOASTY DAY WITH 18C AT 850 AND NEAR RECORD
IN SOME PLACES. PLS SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR THE VULNERABLE
RECORDS.

KPHL...AM 80 PCT CONFIDENT OF 94. MAX SHOULD BE WITHIN THE RANGE
OF 93-95F. LESS CONFIDENT OF DEW POINT IN THE 16Z-18Z TIME FRAME
WHEN MAX HI SHOULD OCCUR.

MAX HI TODAY 98-99F...BASICALLY JUST BELOW URBAN CORRIDOR
CRITERIA OF 100...BUT SINCE FCST NEAR 100 THURSDAY AND WARM NIGHTS
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT (LOWS OF 76-77)...WE ISSUED A TWO
DAY WARNING.

SW WINDS THIS AFTN MAY GUST 15 MPH IN A FEW SPOTS WITH SEA BREEZESDEVELOPING
ALONG THE COASTS BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM.

CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
ANY SHOWERS ON THE DELMARVA SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 00Z.

THEREAFTER...SLY FLOW AND MORE HUMID WITH PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS
FORMING. PWAT INCREASES TO 1.9 INCHES BY MORNING ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR. MODELS HAVE A WEAK IB THRUST ACROSS DE AND S NJ
OVERNIGHT WHERE SCT OR ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS MIGHT
DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE ON PLACEMENT AND OCCURRENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE
AND THIS MAY NEED MODIFICATION IN LATER FORECASTS, POSSIBLY
WESTWARD INTO E PA.

TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND USED A BLEND OF 00Z/29 NAM/GFS MOS
WITH A FAVORING OF THE WARMER AVBL GUIDANCE.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE EXCEPT BELOW AVG ON CONVECTION
FORMING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A NARROWING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
THURSDAY THAT SHIFTS TO OUR EAST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DESPITE THIS TROUGH IN PLACE,
WE ARE MAINLY ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF IT THEREFORE A RATHER WARM
TO HOT AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THURSDAY
LOOKS TO BRING THE GREATEST CHC FOR CONVECTION, THEN WE AWAIT FOR
THE NEXT POTENTIALLY STRONGER FRONT TO ARRIVE DURING TUESDAY. WE
USED A MODEL BLEND THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN WENT WITH A
WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND THEREAFTER.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS A NARROWING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE, WE START TO BECOME INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTHERN CANADA. A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL PULL ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO
THE CWA WHICH WILL BE REFLECTED IN HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. THE AIR MASS AT 850 MB IS FORECAST TO BE
SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY THEREFORE ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS CLOUD COVER AND THE TIMING OF
CONVECTION ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THURSDAY.
IF THIS IS DELAYED LATE ENOUGH WITH MORE SUNSHINE, THEN HEAT
INDICES WILL BE A BIT HIGHER. THE INFLUENCE OF THE INCOMING UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH WILL OFFER SOME HEIGHT FALLS, HOWEVER A RATHER TOASTY
BOUNDARY LAYER LOOKS TO BE MAINTAINED.

WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS TO START THURSDAY WITH MAYBE A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM, WE THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO
GET TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR MANY AREAS ESPECIALLY THE
DELAWARE VALLEY. THIS PUTS HEAT INDICES VERY CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES
FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS OF MOST CONCERN FOR THE
URBAN CENTERS WHERE HEAT REMAINS TRAPPED DURING THE NIGHT AS WELL.
AS A RESULT, FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR FROM WILMINGTON TO
PHILADELPHIA TO TRENTON AND THE IMMEDIATE NEARBY LOCATIONS WE
OPTED TO CARRY AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY.

REGARDING CONVECTION, A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER IN THE
DAY HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE HOT AND HUMID
AIR MASS TO PROMOTE STORM INITIATION TO OUR WEST. IT IS NOT QUITE
CLEAR IF WE CAN GET SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN THE MORNING AS THE
MOISTURE POOLS, OTHERWISE WE FOCUS ON THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS AS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. THE GREATEST SHEAR
THOUGH IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH WHERE A MID LEVEL
SPEED MAX MOVES THROUGH. THE SIGNALS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATE A LINE/BROKEN LINE OR CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARRIVING
FROM THE WEST. IF ENOUGH ORGANIZATION CAN OCCUR AND ALSO FACTORING
IN PRECIPITATION LOADING OF THE DOWNDRAFTS, LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
COULD RESULT. IN ADDITION, PW VALUES ABOUT 2 INCHES WILL PROMOTE
TORRENTIAL RAIN WITHIN CONVECTIVE CORES AND THIS COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

THE CONVECTION SHOULD WANE DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS BUT THEN SLOWS AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST. THEREFORE WE
KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. THE
FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT. AS OF NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OFFSHORE WITH DRYING OCCURRING ACROSS OUR
AREA. ANOTHER WARM TO EVEN HOT DAY ON FRIDAY, HOWEVER THE DEW
POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NOTICEABLY LOWER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH IT MAY WEAKEN SOME SUNDAY AS A RIDGE IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD. THIS KEEPS A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT RIPPLES
OF ENERGY ALONG IT REMAIN TO OUR EAST. SINCE THE TRUE COOLING
AFFECTS FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARE RELEGATED WELL TO OUR
NORTH, THE VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS PERSIST ALTHOUGH DEW POINTS
MAY REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE. A WEAK FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS
TO MOVE THROUGH LATER SATURDAY, HOWEVER MUCH OF THE LIFT MAY
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE OFFSHORE FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS SOME ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT OUR WAY DURING
TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTION MAINLY DURING THAT
TIME. IT APPEARS THAT MANY AREAS SHOULD ADD TO THE STRETCH OF 90+
DEGREE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR WITH SCT CLOUDS AOA 6000 FT THIS AFTN. ISOLATED TSTMS
POSSIBLE VCNTY KGED AND KESN LATE THIS AFTN. SW WIND GUST NEAR 15
KT THIS AFTN EXCEPT SOUTH SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING
COASTAL LOCATIONS 16Z-18Z.

TONIGHT....VFR TO START THEN PATCHY MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN
FOG/STRATUS/ HAZE LATE, ESPECIALLY NW NJ AND PTNS E PA. CHANCE OF
A SHOWER OR TSTM VCNTY KPHL/KMIV TOWARD 10Z.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...SOME FOG/HAZE POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN MOSTLY VFR. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF A LINE. SOME
CEILING AND ESPECIALLY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
A TIME AS A RESULT. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS,
THEN DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS AT NIGHT AND BECOMING WEST-
NORTHWEST.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR AS A FRONT LINGERS OFFSHORE.
WEST- NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS FRIDAY, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY
NEAR 5 KNOTS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOY 44009 SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE DATA HAS RETURNED TO SERVICE.

NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS GENERALLY AOB 3 FT THROUGH
TONIGHT. SW WIND GUSTS LESS 15KT EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING SSE
THIS AFTN AND SLY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK... THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. A SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE THOUGH THURSDAY AHEAD
OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT, HOWEVER GUSTS SHOULD BE BELOW 25 KNOTS.
THE SEAS WILL RESPOND FOR A TIME, HOWEVER THEY SHOULD BE BELOW 5
FEET. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT, WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE. THE FRONT THEN LINGERS OFFSHORE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A SPOTTY MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS
RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE OCEAN COUNTY PORTION OF NEW JERSEY
OTHERWISE A LOW RISK ELSEWHERE.

OF CONCERN IS THE CONTINUED HOT WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL SST`S
PLAYING A ROLE IN SWIMMER BEHAVIOR. EVEN WITH A LOW RISK OF
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENT FORMATION, THEY CAN OCCUR. IT TAKES ONLY ONE
TO BE FATAL. FOR OUR SAFETY, LETS SWIM IN THE PRESENCE OF
LIFEGUARDS WHO ARE TRAINED TO WATCH, RESCUE AND OTHERWISE MINIMIZE
OCEAN WATER RELATED HAZARDS IN THE SWIMMING SURF ZONE. THANK YOU.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KACY RAINFALL 6.58 RANKED 14TH WETTEST NOW WITH THE POR DATING
BACK THROUGH 1874. WETTEST 13.09 IN 1959.

KABE WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE NEAR RECORD WARMTH THIS AFTERNOON-
JULY 29. THE RECORD THERE IS 96 SET IN 1954. RIGHT NOW WE`RE FCSTG
95.

KRDG AND KMPO MAY BE THE OTHER LOCATIONS WITHIN 2F OF THE RECORD
FOR THIS DATE

KRDG - 97 SET BACK IN 2002.
KMPO - 90 SET BACK IN 1949.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ070-071-
     102-104-106.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ015-
     017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG
CLIMATE...DRAG



000
FXUS61 KPHI 291320
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
920 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST TODAY. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT,
HOWEVER IT THEN SLOWS OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT
SHOULD CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE. A POTENTIALLY STRONGER COLD FRONT IS THEN SCHEDULED TO
ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY...THE BOUNDARY DRYING BECOMES EVIDENT BY FORENOON WITH
HIGHEST DEW POINTS AND MLCAPE THIS AFTN (400J) CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR DELMARVA FCST AREA WHERE AM CARRYING A
SLIGHT CHC FOR A THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN. PWAT INCREASES TO
1.7 INCHES THERE LATE TODAY. THIS AREA IS THE LEADING EDGE OF A
NEWD DEVELOPING INSTABILITY BURST WITH KI BY 00Z OF 34C ALONG MD`S
EASTERN SHORE.

ELSEWHERE...HOT HOT HOT AND USED THE GFS MAVMOS STRAIGHT UP. SEA
BREEZES WILL EVENTUALLY MITIGATE SOME OF THE PURE HEAT IN DE AND
NJ BUT THIS WILL BE A TOASTY DAY WITH 18C AT 850 AND NEAR RECORD
IN SOME PLACES. PLS SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR THE VULNERABLE
RECORDS.

KPHL...AM 80 PCT CONFIDENT OF 94. MAX SHOULD BE WITHIN THE RANGE
OF 93-95F. LESS CONFIDENT OF DEW POINT IN THE 16Z-18Z TIME FRAME
WHEN MAX HI SHOULD OCCUR.

MAX HI TODAY 98-99F...BASICALLY JUST BELOW URBAN CORRIDOR
CRITERIA OF 100...BUT SINCE FCST NEAR 100 THURSDAY AND WARM NIGHTS
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT (LOWS OF 76-77)...WE ISSUED A TWO
DAY WARNING.

SW WINDS THIS AFTN MAY GUST 15 MPH IN A FEW SPOTS WITH SEA BREEZESDEVELOPING
ALONG THE COASTS BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM.

CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
ANY SHOWERS ON THE DELMARVA SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 00Z.

THEREAFTER...SLY FLOW AND MORE HUMID WITH PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS
FORMING. PWAT INCREASES TO 1.9 INCHES BY MORNING ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR. MODELS HAVE A WEAK IB THRUST ACROSS DE AND S NJ
OVERNIGHT WHERE SCT OR ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS MIGHT
DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE ON PLACEMENT AND OCCURRENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE
AND THIS MAY NEED MODIFICATION IN LATER FORECASTS, POSSIBLY
WESTWARD INTO E PA.

TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND USED A BLEND OF 00Z/29 NAM/GFS MOS
WITH A FAVORING OF THE WARMER AVBL GUIDANCE.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE EXCEPT BELOW AVG ON CONVECTION
FORMING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A NARROWING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
THURSDAY THAT SHIFTS TO OUR EAST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DESPITE THIS TROUGH IN PLACE,
WE ARE MAINLY ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF IT THEREFORE A RATHER WARM
TO HOT AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THURSDAY
LOOKS TO BRING THE GREATEST CHC FOR CONVECTION, THEN WE AWAIT FOR
THE NEXT POTENTIALLY STRONGER FRONT TO ARRIVE DURING TUESDAY. WE
USED A MODEL BLEND THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN WENT WITH A
WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND THEREAFTER.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS A NARROWING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE, WE START TO BECOME INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTHERN CANADA. A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL PULL ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO
THE CWA WHICH WILL BE REFLECTED IN HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. THE AIR MASS AT 850 MB IS FORECAST TO BE
SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY THEREFORE ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS CLOUD COVER AND THE TIMING OF
CONVECTION ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THURSDAY.
IF THIS IS DELAYED LATE ENOUGH WITH MORE SUNSHINE, THEN HEAT
INDICES WILL BE A BIT HIGHER. THE INFLUENCE OF THE INCOMING UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH WILL OFFER SOME HEIGHT FALLS, HOWEVER A RATHER TOASTY
BOUNDARY LAYER LOOKS TO BE MAINTAINED.

WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS TO START THURSDAY WITH MAYBE A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM, WE THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO
GET TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR MANY AREAS ESPECIALLY THE
DELAWARE VALLEY. THIS PUTS HEAT INDICES VERY CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES
FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS OF MOST CONCERN FOR THE
URBAN CENTERS WHERE HEAT REMAINS TRAPPED DURING THE NIGHT AS WELL.
AS A RESULT, FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR FROM WILMINGTON TO
PHILADELPHIA TO TRENTON AND THE IMMEDIATE NEARBY LOCATIONS WE
OPTED TO CARRY AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY.

REGARDING CONVECTION, A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER IN THE
DAY HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE HOT AND HUMID
AIR MASS TO PROMOTE STORM INITIATION TO OUR WEST. IT IS NOT QUITE
CLEAR IF WE CAN GET SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN THE MORNING AS THE
MOISTURE POOLS, OTHERWISE WE FOCUS ON THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS AS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. THE GREATEST SHEAR
THOUGH IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH WHERE A MID LEVEL
SPEED MAX MOVES THROUGH. THE SIGNALS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATE A LINE/BROKEN LINE OR CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARRIVING
FROM THE WEST. IF ENOUGH ORGANIZATION CAN OCCUR AND ALSO FACTORING
IN PRECIPITATION LOADING OF THE DOWNDRAFTS, LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
COULD RESULT. IN ADDITION, PW VALUES ABOUT 2 INCHES WILL PROMOTE
TORRENTIAL RAIN WITHIN CONVECTIVE CORES AND THIS COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

THE CONVECTION SHOULD WANE DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS BUT THEN SLOWS AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST. THEREFORE WE
KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. THE
FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT. AS OF NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OFFSHORE WITH DRYING OCCURRING ACROSS OUR
AREA. ANOTHER WARM TO EVEN HOT DAY ON FRIDAY, HOWEVER THE DEW
POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NOTICEABLY LOWER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH IT MAY WEAKEN SOME SUNDAY AS A RIDGE IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD. THIS KEEPS A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT RIPPLES
OF ENERGY ALONG IT REMAIN TO OUR EAST. SINCE THE TRUE COOLING
AFFECTS FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARE RELEGATED WELL TO OUR
NORTH, THE VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS PERSIST ALTHOUGH DEW POINTS
MAY REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE. A WEAK FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS
TO MOVE THROUGH LATER SATURDAY, HOWEVER MUCH OF THE LIFT MAY
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE OFFSHORE FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS SOME ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT OUR WAY DURING
TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTION MAINLY DURING THAT
TIME. IT APPEARS THAT MANY AREAS SHOULD ADD TO THE STRETCH OF 90+
DEGREE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR WITH SCT CLOUDS AOA 6000 FT THIS AFTN. ISOLATED TSTMS
POSSIBLE VCNTY KGED AND KESN LATE THIS AFTN. SW WIND GUST NEAR 15
KT THIS AFTN EXCEPT SOUTH SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING
COASTAL LOCATIONS 16Z-18Z.

TONIGHT....VFR TO START THEN PATCHY MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN
FOG/STRATUS/ HAZE LATE, ESPECIALLY NW NJ AND PTNS E PA. CHANCE OF
A SHOWER OR TSTM VCNTY KPHL/KMIV TOWARD 10Z.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...SOME FOG/HAZE POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN MOSTLY VFR. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF A LINE. SOME
CEILING AND ESPECIALLY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
A TIME AS A RESULT. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS,
THEN DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS AT NIGHT AND BECOMING WEST-
NORTHWEST.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR AS A FRONT LINGERS OFFSHORE.
WEST- NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS FRIDAY, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY
NEAR 5 KNOTS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOY 44009 SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE DATA HAS RETURNED TO SERVICE.

NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS GENERALLY AOB 3 FT THROUGH
TONIGHT. SW WIND GUSTS LESS 15KT EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING SSE
THIS AFTN AND SLY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK... THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. A SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE THOUGH THURSDAY AHEAD
OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT, HOWEVER GUSTS SHOULD BE BELOW 25 KNOTS.
THE SEAS WILL RESPOND FOR A TIME, HOWEVER THEY SHOULD BE BELOW 5
FEET. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT, WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE. THE FRONT THEN LINGERS OFFSHORE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A SPOTTY MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS
RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE OCEAN COUNTY PORTION OF NEW JERSEY
OTHERWISE A LOW RISK ELSEWHERE.

OF CONCERN IS THE CONTINUED HOT WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL SST`S
PLAYING A ROLE IN SWIMMER BEHAVIOR. EVEN WITH A LOW RISK OF
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENT FORMATION, THEY CAN OCCUR. IT TAKES ONLY ONE
TO BE FATAL. FOR OUR SAFETY, LETS SWIM IN THE PRESENCE OF
LIFEGUARDS WHO ARE TRAINED TO WATCH, RESCUE AND OTHERWISE MINIMIZE
OCEAN WATER RELATED HAZARDS IN THE SWIMMING SURF ZONE. THANK YOU.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KACY RAINFALL 6.58 RANKED 14TH WETTEST NOW WITH THE POR DATING
BACK THROUGH 1874. WETTEST 13.09 IN 1959.

KABE WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE NEAR RECORD WARMTH THIS AFTERNOON-
JULY 29. THE RECORD THERE IS 96 SET IN 1954. RIGHT NOW WE`RE FCSTG
95.

KRDG AND KMPO MAY BE THE OTHER LOCATIONS WITHIN 2F OF THE RECORD
FOR THIS DATE

KRDG - 97 SET BACK IN 2002.
KMPO - 90 SET BACK IN 1949.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ070-071-
     102-104-106.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ015-
     017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG
CLIMATE...DRAG



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291022
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
622 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY TODAY...THEN LESS HUMID LATER TOMORROW INTO LATE
WEEK BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR TWEAKS FOR THE DAWN UPDATE BASED ON SATELLITE AND NEAR TERM
MODEL DATA. PREVIOUS...CONTINUED ON THE HUMID SIDE TODAY WITH DEW
POINTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL
BEGIN TO FALL AS APPROACHING SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO FLATTEN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. HIGHS STILL NEAR 90 MOST LOCATIONS. BY LATE TODAY
APPROACHING FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY BE ABLE TO POPS A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND NW PA...WITH SLIGHT
CHC POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH CONTINUED
CHANCE POPS. OVERNIGHT TIMING AND A FAIRLY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL
KEEP ONLY CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH FROPA. LOWER DEW
POINTS WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY
AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DIMINISH NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS INTO THE EASTERN STATES NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP LOWER DEW POINTS WITH NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES INTO LATE WEEK. ADDED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY
AS MODELS LOOK TO BRING A SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGING IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE UNDER BROAD EASTERN CONUS
UPPER TROUGHING...BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONALLY WARM WEATHER
INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK WITH CROSSING SHORTWAVES. FOLLOWED
CLOSE TO WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE...WHICH SMOOTHS OUT SOME EARLY
WEEK OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OTHER THAN PATCHY MVFR/ISOLATED IFR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...VFR
CONDITIONS WITH DIURNAL CU ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS SURFACE RIDING
SLIDES EAST.

AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING INCREASING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO PORTS W OF THE PA BORDER BY THIS
EVENING...SO INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION AT ZZV. HOW LONG PRECIP
CONTINUES ALONG THE FRONT IS IN QUESTION AS IT MOVES INTO PA LATER
IN THE EVENING...SO ONLY INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION FOR THE REST OF
THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291022
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
622 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY TODAY...THEN LESS HUMID LATER TOMORROW INTO LATE
WEEK BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR TWEAKS FOR THE DAWN UPDATE BASED ON SATELLITE AND NEAR TERM
MODEL DATA. PREVIOUS...CONTINUED ON THE HUMID SIDE TODAY WITH DEW
POINTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL
BEGIN TO FALL AS APPROACHING SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO FLATTEN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. HIGHS STILL NEAR 90 MOST LOCATIONS. BY LATE TODAY
APPROACHING FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY BE ABLE TO POPS A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND NW PA...WITH SLIGHT
CHC POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH CONTINUED
CHANCE POPS. OVERNIGHT TIMING AND A FAIRLY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL
KEEP ONLY CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH FROPA. LOWER DEW
POINTS WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY
AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DIMINISH NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS INTO THE EASTERN STATES NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP LOWER DEW POINTS WITH NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES INTO LATE WEEK. ADDED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY
AS MODELS LOOK TO BRING A SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGING IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE UNDER BROAD EASTERN CONUS
UPPER TROUGHING...BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONALLY WARM WEATHER
INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK WITH CROSSING SHORTWAVES. FOLLOWED
CLOSE TO WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE...WHICH SMOOTHS OUT SOME EARLY
WEEK OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OTHER THAN PATCHY MVFR/ISOLATED IFR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...VFR
CONDITIONS WITH DIURNAL CU ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS SURFACE RIDING
SLIDES EAST.

AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING INCREASING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO PORTS W OF THE PA BORDER BY THIS
EVENING...SO INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION AT ZZV. HOW LONG PRECIP
CONTINUES ALONG THE FRONT IS IN QUESTION AS IT MOVES INTO PA LATER
IN THE EVENING...SO ONLY INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION FOR THE REST OF
THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPHI 291019
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
619 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST TODAY. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT,
HOWEVER IT THEN SLOWS OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT
SHOULD CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE. A POTENTIALLY STRONGER COLD FRONT IS THEN SCHEDULED TO
ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE WEAK BOUNDARY HAS TEMPORARILY WASHED OUT AS LESS DEFINED AND
NORTHWARD TO NEAR I-78 EARLY THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG IN THE
COUNTRYSIDE WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY 8 AM.

TODAY...THE BOUNDARY DRYING BECOMES EVIDENT BY FORENOON WITH
HIGHEST DEWPOINTS AND MLCAPE THIS AFTN (400J) CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR DELMARVA FCST AREA WHERE AM CARRYING A
SLIGHT CHC FOR A THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN. PWAT INCREASES TO
1.7 INCHES THERE LATE TODAY. THIS AREA IS THE LEADING EDGE OF A
NEWD DEVELOPING INSTABILITY BURST WITH KI BY 00Z OF 34C ALONG MD`S
EASTERN SHORE.

ELSEWHERE...HOT HOT HOT AND USED THE GFS MAVMOS STRAIGHT UP. SEA
BREEZES WILL EVENTUALLY MITIGATE SOME OF THE PURE HEAT IN DE AND
NJ BUT THIS WILL BE A TOASTY DAY WITH 18C AT 850 AND NEAR RECORD
IN SOME PLACES. PLS SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR THE VULNERABLE
RECORDS.

KPHL...AM 80 PCT CONFIDENT OF 94. MAX SHOULD BE WITHIN THE RANGE
OF 93-95F. LESS CONFIDENT OF DEWPOINT IN THE 16Z-18Z TIME FRAME
WHEN MAX HI SHOULD OCCUR.

MAX HI TODAY 98-99F...BASICALLY JUST BELOW URBAN CORRIDOR CRITERIA
OF 100...BUT SINCE FCST NEAR 100 THURSDAY AND WARM NIGHTS THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT (LOWS OF 76-77)...WE ISSUED A TWO DAY
WARNING.

SW WINDS THIS AFTN MAY GUST 15 MPH IN A FEW SPOTS WITH SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTS BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM.

CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
ANY SHOWERS ON THE DELMARVA SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 00Z.

THEREAFTER...SLY FLOW AND MORE HUMID WITH PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS
FORMING. PWAT INCREASES TO 1.9 INCHES BY MORNING ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR. MODELS HAVE A WEAK IB THRUST ACROSS DE AND S NJ OVERNIGHT
WHERE SCT OR ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS MIGHT DEVELOP.
CONFIDENCE ON PLACEMENT AND OCCURRENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE AND THIS
MAY NEED MODIFICATION IN LATER FORECASTS, POSSIBLY WESTWARD INTO E
PA.

TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND USED A BLEND OF 00Z/29 NAM/GFS MOS
WITH A FAVORING OF THE WARMER AVBL GUIDANCE.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE EXCEPT BELOW AVG ON CONVECTION
FORMING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A NARROWING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
THURSDAY THAT SHIFTS TO OUR EAST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO OVERSPREAD THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DESPITE THIS TROUGH IN PLACE, WE ARE MAINLY ON
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF IT THEREFORE A RATHER WARM TO HOT AIRMASS
WILL BE IN PLACE. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THURSDAY LOOKS TO BRING THE
GREATEST CHC FOR CONVECTION, THEN WE AWAIT FOR THE NEXT POTENTIALLY
STRONGER FRONT TO ARRIVE DURING TUESDAY. WE USED A MODEL BLEND
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN WENT WITH A WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND
THEREAFTER.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS A NARROWING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE, WE START TO BECOME INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTHERN CANADA. A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL PULL ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE
CWA WHICH WILL BE REFLECTED IN HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY. THE AIRMASS AT 850 MB IS FORECAST TO BE SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY THEREFORE ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER THE
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS CLOUD COVER AND THE TIMING OF CONVECTION
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THURSDAY. IF THIS IS
DELAYED LATE ENOUGH WITH MORE SUNSHINE, THEN HEAT INDICES WILL BE A
BIT HIGHER. THE INFLUENCE OF THE INCOMING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
OFFER SOME HEIGHT FALLS, HOWEVER A RATHER TOASTY BOUNDARY LAYER
LOOKS TO BE MAINTAINED.

WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS TO START THURSDAY WITH MAYBE A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM, WE THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO
GET TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR MANY AREAS ESPECIALLY THE
DELAWARE VALLEY. THIS PUTS HEAT INDICES VERY CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES
FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS OF MOST CONCERN FOR THE
URBAN CENTERS WHERE HEAT REMAINS TRAPPED DURING THE NIGHT AS WELL.
AS A RESULT, FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR FROM WILMINGTON TO
PHILADELPHIA TO TRENTON AND THE IMMEDIATE NEARBY LOCATIONS WE
OPTED TO CARRY AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY.

REGARDING CONVECTION, A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER IN THE
DAY HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE HOT AND HUMID
AIRMASS TO PROMOTE STORM INITIATION TO OUR WEST. IT IS NOT QUITE
CLEAR IF WE CAN GET SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN THE MORNING AS THE
MOISTURE POOLS, OTHERWISE WE FOCUS ON THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS AS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. THE GREATEST SHEAR
THOUGH IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH WHERE A MID LEVEL SPEED
MAX MOVES THROUGH. THE SIGNALS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE A
LINE/BROKEN LINE OR CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARRIVING FROM THE WEST.
IF ENOUGH ORGANIZATION CAN OCCUR AND ALSO FACTORING IN PRECIPITATION
LOADING OF THE DOWNDRAFTS, LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS COULD RESULT. IN
ADDITION, PW VALUES ABOUT 2 INCHES WILL PROMOTE TORRENTIAL RAIN
WITHIN CONVECTIVE CORES AND THIS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

THE CONVECTION SHOULD WANE DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS BUT THEN SLOWS AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST. THEREFORE WE KEPT
THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. THE FRONT
LOOKS TO STALL OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT. AS OF NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OFFSHORE WITH DRYING OCCURRING ACROSS OUR
AREA. ANOTHER WARM TO EVEN HOT DAY ON FRIDAY, HOWEVER THE DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NOTICEABLY LOWER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH IT MAY WEAKEN SOME SUNDAY AS A RIDGE IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD. THIS KEEPS A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT RIPPLES OF ENERGY
ALONG IT REMAIN TO OUR EAST. SINCE THE TRUE COOLING AFFECTS FROM THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARE RELEGATED WELL TO OUR NORTH, THE VERY WARM TO
HOT CONDITIONS PERSIST ALTHOUGH DEW POINTS MAY REMAIN ON THE LOWER
SIDE. A WEAK FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH LATER
SATURDAY, HOWEVER MUCH OF THE LIFT MAY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE OFFSHORE FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS SOME ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT OUR WAY DURING TUESDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTION MAINLY DURING THAT TIME. IT
APPEARS THAT MANY AREAS SHOULD ADD TO THE STRETCH OF 90+ DEGREE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...PATCHY COUNTRYSIDE FOG DISSIPATES BY 12Z. OTRW VFR WITH
SCT CLOUDS AOA 6000 FT THIS AFTN. ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE VCNTY
KGED AND KESN LATE THIS AFTN. SW WIND GUST NEAR 15 KT THIS AFTN
EXCEPT SOUTH SOUTHEAST SEABREEZES DEVELOPING COASTAL LOCATIONS
16Z-18Z.

TONIGHT....VFR TO START THEN PATCHY MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN FOG/STRATUS/
HAZE LATE, ESPECIALLY NW NJ AND PTNS E PA. CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
TSTM VCNTY KPHL/KMIV TOWARD 10Z.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...SOME FOG/HAZE POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN MOSTLY VFR. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF A LINE. SOME
CEILING AND ESPECIALLY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR A
TIME AS A RESULT. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS, THEN
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS AT NIGHT AND BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR AS A FRONT LINGERS OFFSHORE. WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS FRIDAY, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY NEAR 5
KNOTS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOY 44009 SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE DATA HAS RETURNED TO SERVICE.

NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS GENERALLY AOB 3 FT THROUGH
TONIGHT. SW WIND GUSTS LESS 15KT EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING SSE
THIS AFTN AND SLY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK... THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. A SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE THOUGH THURSDAY AHEAD
OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT, HOWEVER GUSTS SHOULD BE BELOW 25 KNOTS.
THE SEAS WILL RESPOND FOR A TIME, HOWEVER THEY SHOULD BE BELOW 5
FEET. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT, WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE. THE FRONT THEN LINGERS OFFSHORE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A SPOTTY MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS
RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE OCEAN COUNTY PORTION OF NEW JERSEY OTHERWISE
A LOW RISK ELSEWHERE.

OF CONCERN IS THE CONTINUED HOT WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL SST`S PLAYING
A ROLE IN SWIMMER BEHAVIOR. EVEN WITH A LOW RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENT FORMATION, THEY CAN OCCUR. IT TAKES ONLY ONE TO BE FATAL.
FOR OUR SAFETY, LETS SWIM IN THE PRESENCE OF LIFEGUARDS WHO ARE
TRAINED TO WATCH, RESCUE AND OTHERWISE MINIMIZE OCEAN WATER
RELATED HAZARDS IN THE SWIMMING SURF ZONE.  THANK YOU.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KACY RAINFALL 6.58 RANKED 14TH WETTEST NOW WITH THE POR DATING
BACK THROUGH 1874. WETTEST 13.09 IN 1959.

KABE WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE NEAR RECORD WARMTH THIS AFTERNOON-JULY
29. THE RECORD THERE IS 96 SET IN 1954. RIGHT NOW WE`RE FCSTG 95.

KRDG AND KMPO MAY BE THE OTHER LOCATIONS WITHIN 2F OF THE RECORD
FOR THIS DATE

KRDG - 97 SET BACK IN 2002.
KMPO - 90 SET BACK IN 1949.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR NJZ015-017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG 619
SHORT TERM...DRAG 619
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 619
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 619
RIP CURRENTS... 619
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 291019
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
619 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST TODAY. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT,
HOWEVER IT THEN SLOWS OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT
SHOULD CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE. A POTENTIALLY STRONGER COLD FRONT IS THEN SCHEDULED TO
ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE WEAK BOUNDARY HAS TEMPORARILY WASHED OUT AS LESS DEFINED AND
NORTHWARD TO NEAR I-78 EARLY THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG IN THE
COUNTRYSIDE WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY 8 AM.

TODAY...THE BOUNDARY DRYING BECOMES EVIDENT BY FORENOON WITH
HIGHEST DEWPOINTS AND MLCAPE THIS AFTN (400J) CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR DELMARVA FCST AREA WHERE AM CARRYING A
SLIGHT CHC FOR A THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN. PWAT INCREASES TO
1.7 INCHES THERE LATE TODAY. THIS AREA IS THE LEADING EDGE OF A
NEWD DEVELOPING INSTABILITY BURST WITH KI BY 00Z OF 34C ALONG MD`S
EASTERN SHORE.

ELSEWHERE...HOT HOT HOT AND USED THE GFS MAVMOS STRAIGHT UP. SEA
BREEZES WILL EVENTUALLY MITIGATE SOME OF THE PURE HEAT IN DE AND
NJ BUT THIS WILL BE A TOASTY DAY WITH 18C AT 850 AND NEAR RECORD
IN SOME PLACES. PLS SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR THE VULNERABLE
RECORDS.

KPHL...AM 80 PCT CONFIDENT OF 94. MAX SHOULD BE WITHIN THE RANGE
OF 93-95F. LESS CONFIDENT OF DEWPOINT IN THE 16Z-18Z TIME FRAME
WHEN MAX HI SHOULD OCCUR.

MAX HI TODAY 98-99F...BASICALLY JUST BELOW URBAN CORRIDOR CRITERIA
OF 100...BUT SINCE FCST NEAR 100 THURSDAY AND WARM NIGHTS THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT (LOWS OF 76-77)...WE ISSUED A TWO DAY
WARNING.

SW WINDS THIS AFTN MAY GUST 15 MPH IN A FEW SPOTS WITH SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTS BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM.

CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
ANY SHOWERS ON THE DELMARVA SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 00Z.

THEREAFTER...SLY FLOW AND MORE HUMID WITH PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS
FORMING. PWAT INCREASES TO 1.9 INCHES BY MORNING ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR. MODELS HAVE A WEAK IB THRUST ACROSS DE AND S NJ OVERNIGHT
WHERE SCT OR ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS MIGHT DEVELOP.
CONFIDENCE ON PLACEMENT AND OCCURRENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE AND THIS
MAY NEED MODIFICATION IN LATER FORECASTS, POSSIBLY WESTWARD INTO E
PA.

TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND USED A BLEND OF 00Z/29 NAM/GFS MOS
WITH A FAVORING OF THE WARMER AVBL GUIDANCE.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE EXCEPT BELOW AVG ON CONVECTION
FORMING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A NARROWING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
THURSDAY THAT SHIFTS TO OUR EAST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO OVERSPREAD THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DESPITE THIS TROUGH IN PLACE, WE ARE MAINLY ON
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF IT THEREFORE A RATHER WARM TO HOT AIRMASS
WILL BE IN PLACE. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THURSDAY LOOKS TO BRING THE
GREATEST CHC FOR CONVECTION, THEN WE AWAIT FOR THE NEXT POTENTIALLY
STRONGER FRONT TO ARRIVE DURING TUESDAY. WE USED A MODEL BLEND
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN WENT WITH A WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND
THEREAFTER.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS A NARROWING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE, WE START TO BECOME INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTHERN CANADA. A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL PULL ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE
CWA WHICH WILL BE REFLECTED IN HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY. THE AIRMASS AT 850 MB IS FORECAST TO BE SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY THEREFORE ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER THE
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS CLOUD COVER AND THE TIMING OF CONVECTION
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THURSDAY. IF THIS IS
DELAYED LATE ENOUGH WITH MORE SUNSHINE, THEN HEAT INDICES WILL BE A
BIT HIGHER. THE INFLUENCE OF THE INCOMING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
OFFER SOME HEIGHT FALLS, HOWEVER A RATHER TOASTY BOUNDARY LAYER
LOOKS TO BE MAINTAINED.

WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS TO START THURSDAY WITH MAYBE A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM, WE THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO
GET TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR MANY AREAS ESPECIALLY THE
DELAWARE VALLEY. THIS PUTS HEAT INDICES VERY CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES
FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS OF MOST CONCERN FOR THE
URBAN CENTERS WHERE HEAT REMAINS TRAPPED DURING THE NIGHT AS WELL.
AS A RESULT, FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR FROM WILMINGTON TO
PHILADELPHIA TO TRENTON AND THE IMMEDIATE NEARBY LOCATIONS WE
OPTED TO CARRY AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY.

REGARDING CONVECTION, A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER IN THE
DAY HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE HOT AND HUMID
AIRMASS TO PROMOTE STORM INITIATION TO OUR WEST. IT IS NOT QUITE
CLEAR IF WE CAN GET SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN THE MORNING AS THE
MOISTURE POOLS, OTHERWISE WE FOCUS ON THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS AS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. THE GREATEST SHEAR
THOUGH IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH WHERE A MID LEVEL SPEED
MAX MOVES THROUGH. THE SIGNALS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE A
LINE/BROKEN LINE OR CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARRIVING FROM THE WEST.
IF ENOUGH ORGANIZATION CAN OCCUR AND ALSO FACTORING IN PRECIPITATION
LOADING OF THE DOWNDRAFTS, LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS COULD RESULT. IN
ADDITION, PW VALUES ABOUT 2 INCHES WILL PROMOTE TORRENTIAL RAIN
WITHIN CONVECTIVE CORES AND THIS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

THE CONVECTION SHOULD WANE DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS BUT THEN SLOWS AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST. THEREFORE WE KEPT
THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. THE FRONT
LOOKS TO STALL OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT. AS OF NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OFFSHORE WITH DRYING OCCURRING ACROSS OUR
AREA. ANOTHER WARM TO EVEN HOT DAY ON FRIDAY, HOWEVER THE DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NOTICEABLY LOWER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH IT MAY WEAKEN SOME SUNDAY AS A RIDGE IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD. THIS KEEPS A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT RIPPLES OF ENERGY
ALONG IT REMAIN TO OUR EAST. SINCE THE TRUE COOLING AFFECTS FROM THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARE RELEGATED WELL TO OUR NORTH, THE VERY WARM TO
HOT CONDITIONS PERSIST ALTHOUGH DEW POINTS MAY REMAIN ON THE LOWER
SIDE. A WEAK FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH LATER
SATURDAY, HOWEVER MUCH OF THE LIFT MAY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE OFFSHORE FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS SOME ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT OUR WAY DURING TUESDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTION MAINLY DURING THAT TIME. IT
APPEARS THAT MANY AREAS SHOULD ADD TO THE STRETCH OF 90+ DEGREE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...PATCHY COUNTRYSIDE FOG DISSIPATES BY 12Z. OTRW VFR WITH
SCT CLOUDS AOA 6000 FT THIS AFTN. ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE VCNTY
KGED AND KESN LATE THIS AFTN. SW WIND GUST NEAR 15 KT THIS AFTN
EXCEPT SOUTH SOUTHEAST SEABREEZES DEVELOPING COASTAL LOCATIONS
16Z-18Z.

TONIGHT....VFR TO START THEN PATCHY MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN FOG/STRATUS/
HAZE LATE, ESPECIALLY NW NJ AND PTNS E PA. CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
TSTM VCNTY KPHL/KMIV TOWARD 10Z.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...SOME FOG/HAZE POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN MOSTLY VFR. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF A LINE. SOME
CEILING AND ESPECIALLY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR A
TIME AS A RESULT. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS, THEN
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS AT NIGHT AND BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR AS A FRONT LINGERS OFFSHORE. WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS FRIDAY, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY NEAR 5
KNOTS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOY 44009 SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE DATA HAS RETURNED TO SERVICE.

NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS GENERALLY AOB 3 FT THROUGH
TONIGHT. SW WIND GUSTS LESS 15KT EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING SSE
THIS AFTN AND SLY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK... THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. A SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE THOUGH THURSDAY AHEAD
OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT, HOWEVER GUSTS SHOULD BE BELOW 25 KNOTS.
THE SEAS WILL RESPOND FOR A TIME, HOWEVER THEY SHOULD BE BELOW 5
FEET. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT, WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE. THE FRONT THEN LINGERS OFFSHORE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A SPOTTY MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS
RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE OCEAN COUNTY PORTION OF NEW JERSEY OTHERWISE
A LOW RISK ELSEWHERE.

OF CONCERN IS THE CONTINUED HOT WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL SST`S PLAYING
A ROLE IN SWIMMER BEHAVIOR. EVEN WITH A LOW RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENT FORMATION, THEY CAN OCCUR. IT TAKES ONLY ONE TO BE FATAL.
FOR OUR SAFETY, LETS SWIM IN THE PRESENCE OF LIFEGUARDS WHO ARE
TRAINED TO WATCH, RESCUE AND OTHERWISE MINIMIZE OCEAN WATER
RELATED HAZARDS IN THE SWIMMING SURF ZONE.  THANK YOU.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KACY RAINFALL 6.58 RANKED 14TH WETTEST NOW WITH THE POR DATING
BACK THROUGH 1874. WETTEST 13.09 IN 1959.

KABE WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE NEAR RECORD WARMTH THIS AFTERNOON-JULY
29. THE RECORD THERE IS 96 SET IN 1954. RIGHT NOW WE`RE FCSTG 95.

KRDG AND KMPO MAY BE THE OTHER LOCATIONS WITHIN 2F OF THE RECORD
FOR THIS DATE

KRDG - 97 SET BACK IN 2002.
KMPO - 90 SET BACK IN 1949.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR NJZ015-017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG 619
SHORT TERM...DRAG 619
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 619
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 619
RIP CURRENTS... 619
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 291019
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
619 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST TODAY. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT,
HOWEVER IT THEN SLOWS OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT
SHOULD CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE. A POTENTIALLY STRONGER COLD FRONT IS THEN SCHEDULED TO
ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE WEAK BOUNDARY HAS TEMPORARILY WASHED OUT AS LESS DEFINED AND
NORTHWARD TO NEAR I-78 EARLY THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG IN THE
COUNTRYSIDE WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY 8 AM.

TODAY...THE BOUNDARY DRYING BECOMES EVIDENT BY FORENOON WITH
HIGHEST DEWPOINTS AND MLCAPE THIS AFTN (400J) CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR DELMARVA FCST AREA WHERE AM CARRYING A
SLIGHT CHC FOR A THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN. PWAT INCREASES TO
1.7 INCHES THERE LATE TODAY. THIS AREA IS THE LEADING EDGE OF A
NEWD DEVELOPING INSTABILITY BURST WITH KI BY 00Z OF 34C ALONG MD`S
EASTERN SHORE.

ELSEWHERE...HOT HOT HOT AND USED THE GFS MAVMOS STRAIGHT UP. SEA
BREEZES WILL EVENTUALLY MITIGATE SOME OF THE PURE HEAT IN DE AND
NJ BUT THIS WILL BE A TOASTY DAY WITH 18C AT 850 AND NEAR RECORD
IN SOME PLACES. PLS SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR THE VULNERABLE
RECORDS.

KPHL...AM 80 PCT CONFIDENT OF 94. MAX SHOULD BE WITHIN THE RANGE
OF 93-95F. LESS CONFIDENT OF DEWPOINT IN THE 16Z-18Z TIME FRAME
WHEN MAX HI SHOULD OCCUR.

MAX HI TODAY 98-99F...BASICALLY JUST BELOW URBAN CORRIDOR CRITERIA
OF 100...BUT SINCE FCST NEAR 100 THURSDAY AND WARM NIGHTS THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT (LOWS OF 76-77)...WE ISSUED A TWO DAY
WARNING.

SW WINDS THIS AFTN MAY GUST 15 MPH IN A FEW SPOTS WITH SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTS BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM.

CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
ANY SHOWERS ON THE DELMARVA SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 00Z.

THEREAFTER...SLY FLOW AND MORE HUMID WITH PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS
FORMING. PWAT INCREASES TO 1.9 INCHES BY MORNING ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR. MODELS HAVE A WEAK IB THRUST ACROSS DE AND S NJ OVERNIGHT
WHERE SCT OR ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS MIGHT DEVELOP.
CONFIDENCE ON PLACEMENT AND OCCURRENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE AND THIS
MAY NEED MODIFICATION IN LATER FORECASTS, POSSIBLY WESTWARD INTO E
PA.

TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND USED A BLEND OF 00Z/29 NAM/GFS MOS
WITH A FAVORING OF THE WARMER AVBL GUIDANCE.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE EXCEPT BELOW AVG ON CONVECTION
FORMING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A NARROWING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
THURSDAY THAT SHIFTS TO OUR EAST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO OVERSPREAD THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DESPITE THIS TROUGH IN PLACE, WE ARE MAINLY ON
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF IT THEREFORE A RATHER WARM TO HOT AIRMASS
WILL BE IN PLACE. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THURSDAY LOOKS TO BRING THE
GREATEST CHC FOR CONVECTION, THEN WE AWAIT FOR THE NEXT POTENTIALLY
STRONGER FRONT TO ARRIVE DURING TUESDAY. WE USED A MODEL BLEND
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN WENT WITH A WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND
THEREAFTER.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS A NARROWING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE, WE START TO BECOME INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTHERN CANADA. A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL PULL ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE
CWA WHICH WILL BE REFLECTED IN HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY. THE AIRMASS AT 850 MB IS FORECAST TO BE SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY THEREFORE ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER THE
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS CLOUD COVER AND THE TIMING OF CONVECTION
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THURSDAY. IF THIS IS
DELAYED LATE ENOUGH WITH MORE SUNSHINE, THEN HEAT INDICES WILL BE A
BIT HIGHER. THE INFLUENCE OF THE INCOMING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
OFFER SOME HEIGHT FALLS, HOWEVER A RATHER TOASTY BOUNDARY LAYER
LOOKS TO BE MAINTAINED.

WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS TO START THURSDAY WITH MAYBE A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM, WE THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO
GET TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR MANY AREAS ESPECIALLY THE
DELAWARE VALLEY. THIS PUTS HEAT INDICES VERY CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES
FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS OF MOST CONCERN FOR THE
URBAN CENTERS WHERE HEAT REMAINS TRAPPED DURING THE NIGHT AS WELL.
AS A RESULT, FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR FROM WILMINGTON TO
PHILADELPHIA TO TRENTON AND THE IMMEDIATE NEARBY LOCATIONS WE
OPTED TO CARRY AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY.

REGARDING CONVECTION, A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER IN THE
DAY HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE HOT AND HUMID
AIRMASS TO PROMOTE STORM INITIATION TO OUR WEST. IT IS NOT QUITE
CLEAR IF WE CAN GET SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN THE MORNING AS THE
MOISTURE POOLS, OTHERWISE WE FOCUS ON THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS AS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. THE GREATEST SHEAR
THOUGH IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH WHERE A MID LEVEL SPEED
MAX MOVES THROUGH. THE SIGNALS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE A
LINE/BROKEN LINE OR CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARRIVING FROM THE WEST.
IF ENOUGH ORGANIZATION CAN OCCUR AND ALSO FACTORING IN PRECIPITATION
LOADING OF THE DOWNDRAFTS, LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS COULD RESULT. IN
ADDITION, PW VALUES ABOUT 2 INCHES WILL PROMOTE TORRENTIAL RAIN
WITHIN CONVECTIVE CORES AND THIS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

THE CONVECTION SHOULD WANE DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS BUT THEN SLOWS AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST. THEREFORE WE KEPT
THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. THE FRONT
LOOKS TO STALL OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT. AS OF NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OFFSHORE WITH DRYING OCCURRING ACROSS OUR
AREA. ANOTHER WARM TO EVEN HOT DAY ON FRIDAY, HOWEVER THE DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NOTICEABLY LOWER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH IT MAY WEAKEN SOME SUNDAY AS A RIDGE IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD. THIS KEEPS A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT RIPPLES OF ENERGY
ALONG IT REMAIN TO OUR EAST. SINCE THE TRUE COOLING AFFECTS FROM THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARE RELEGATED WELL TO OUR NORTH, THE VERY WARM TO
HOT CONDITIONS PERSIST ALTHOUGH DEW POINTS MAY REMAIN ON THE LOWER
SIDE. A WEAK FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH LATER
SATURDAY, HOWEVER MUCH OF THE LIFT MAY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE OFFSHORE FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS SOME ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT OUR WAY DURING TUESDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTION MAINLY DURING THAT TIME. IT
APPEARS THAT MANY AREAS SHOULD ADD TO THE STRETCH OF 90+ DEGREE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...PATCHY COUNTRYSIDE FOG DISSIPATES BY 12Z. OTRW VFR WITH
SCT CLOUDS AOA 6000 FT THIS AFTN. ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE VCNTY
KGED AND KESN LATE THIS AFTN. SW WIND GUST NEAR 15 KT THIS AFTN
EXCEPT SOUTH SOUTHEAST SEABREEZES DEVELOPING COASTAL LOCATIONS
16Z-18Z.

TONIGHT....VFR TO START THEN PATCHY MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN FOG/STRATUS/
HAZE LATE, ESPECIALLY NW NJ AND PTNS E PA. CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
TSTM VCNTY KPHL/KMIV TOWARD 10Z.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...SOME FOG/HAZE POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN MOSTLY VFR. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF A LINE. SOME
CEILING AND ESPECIALLY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR A
TIME AS A RESULT. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS, THEN
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS AT NIGHT AND BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR AS A FRONT LINGERS OFFSHORE. WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS FRIDAY, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY NEAR 5
KNOTS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOY 44009 SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE DATA HAS RETURNED TO SERVICE.

NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS GENERALLY AOB 3 FT THROUGH
TONIGHT. SW WIND GUSTS LESS 15KT EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING SSE
THIS AFTN AND SLY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK... THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. A SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE THOUGH THURSDAY AHEAD
OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT, HOWEVER GUSTS SHOULD BE BELOW 25 KNOTS.
THE SEAS WILL RESPOND FOR A TIME, HOWEVER THEY SHOULD BE BELOW 5
FEET. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT, WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE. THE FRONT THEN LINGERS OFFSHORE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A SPOTTY MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS
RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE OCEAN COUNTY PORTION OF NEW JERSEY OTHERWISE
A LOW RISK ELSEWHERE.

OF CONCERN IS THE CONTINUED HOT WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL SST`S PLAYING
A ROLE IN SWIMMER BEHAVIOR. EVEN WITH A LOW RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENT FORMATION, THEY CAN OCCUR. IT TAKES ONLY ONE TO BE FATAL.
FOR OUR SAFETY, LETS SWIM IN THE PRESENCE OF LIFEGUARDS WHO ARE
TRAINED TO WATCH, RESCUE AND OTHERWISE MINIMIZE OCEAN WATER
RELATED HAZARDS IN THE SWIMMING SURF ZONE.  THANK YOU.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KACY RAINFALL 6.58 RANKED 14TH WETTEST NOW WITH THE POR DATING
BACK THROUGH 1874. WETTEST 13.09 IN 1959.

KABE WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE NEAR RECORD WARMTH THIS AFTERNOON-JULY
29. THE RECORD THERE IS 96 SET IN 1954. RIGHT NOW WE`RE FCSTG 95.

KRDG AND KMPO MAY BE THE OTHER LOCATIONS WITHIN 2F OF THE RECORD
FOR THIS DATE

KRDG - 97 SET BACK IN 2002.
KMPO - 90 SET BACK IN 1949.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR NJZ015-017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG 619
SHORT TERM...DRAG 619
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 619
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 619
RIP CURRENTS... 619
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 291019
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
619 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST TODAY. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT,
HOWEVER IT THEN SLOWS OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT
SHOULD CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE. A POTENTIALLY STRONGER COLD FRONT IS THEN SCHEDULED TO
ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE WEAK BOUNDARY HAS TEMPORARILY WASHED OUT AS LESS DEFINED AND
NORTHWARD TO NEAR I-78 EARLY THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG IN THE
COUNTRYSIDE WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY 8 AM.

TODAY...THE BOUNDARY DRYING BECOMES EVIDENT BY FORENOON WITH
HIGHEST DEWPOINTS AND MLCAPE THIS AFTN (400J) CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR DELMARVA FCST AREA WHERE AM CARRYING A
SLIGHT CHC FOR A THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN. PWAT INCREASES TO
1.7 INCHES THERE LATE TODAY. THIS AREA IS THE LEADING EDGE OF A
NEWD DEVELOPING INSTABILITY BURST WITH KI BY 00Z OF 34C ALONG MD`S
EASTERN SHORE.

ELSEWHERE...HOT HOT HOT AND USED THE GFS MAVMOS STRAIGHT UP. SEA
BREEZES WILL EVENTUALLY MITIGATE SOME OF THE PURE HEAT IN DE AND
NJ BUT THIS WILL BE A TOASTY DAY WITH 18C AT 850 AND NEAR RECORD
IN SOME PLACES. PLS SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR THE VULNERABLE
RECORDS.

KPHL...AM 80 PCT CONFIDENT OF 94. MAX SHOULD BE WITHIN THE RANGE
OF 93-95F. LESS CONFIDENT OF DEWPOINT IN THE 16Z-18Z TIME FRAME
WHEN MAX HI SHOULD OCCUR.

MAX HI TODAY 98-99F...BASICALLY JUST BELOW URBAN CORRIDOR CRITERIA
OF 100...BUT SINCE FCST NEAR 100 THURSDAY AND WARM NIGHTS THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT (LOWS OF 76-77)...WE ISSUED A TWO DAY
WARNING.

SW WINDS THIS AFTN MAY GUST 15 MPH IN A FEW SPOTS WITH SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTS BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM.

CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
ANY SHOWERS ON THE DELMARVA SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 00Z.

THEREAFTER...SLY FLOW AND MORE HUMID WITH PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS
FORMING. PWAT INCREASES TO 1.9 INCHES BY MORNING ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR. MODELS HAVE A WEAK IB THRUST ACROSS DE AND S NJ OVERNIGHT
WHERE SCT OR ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS MIGHT DEVELOP.
CONFIDENCE ON PLACEMENT AND OCCURRENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE AND THIS
MAY NEED MODIFICATION IN LATER FORECASTS, POSSIBLY WESTWARD INTO E
PA.

TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND USED A BLEND OF 00Z/29 NAM/GFS MOS
WITH A FAVORING OF THE WARMER AVBL GUIDANCE.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE EXCEPT BELOW AVG ON CONVECTION
FORMING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A NARROWING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
THURSDAY THAT SHIFTS TO OUR EAST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO OVERSPREAD THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DESPITE THIS TROUGH IN PLACE, WE ARE MAINLY ON
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF IT THEREFORE A RATHER WARM TO HOT AIRMASS
WILL BE IN PLACE. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THURSDAY LOOKS TO BRING THE
GREATEST CHC FOR CONVECTION, THEN WE AWAIT FOR THE NEXT POTENTIALLY
STRONGER FRONT TO ARRIVE DURING TUESDAY. WE USED A MODEL BLEND
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN WENT WITH A WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND
THEREAFTER.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS A NARROWING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE, WE START TO BECOME INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTHERN CANADA. A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL PULL ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE
CWA WHICH WILL BE REFLECTED IN HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY. THE AIRMASS AT 850 MB IS FORECAST TO BE SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY THEREFORE ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER THE
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS CLOUD COVER AND THE TIMING OF CONVECTION
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THURSDAY. IF THIS IS
DELAYED LATE ENOUGH WITH MORE SUNSHINE, THEN HEAT INDICES WILL BE A
BIT HIGHER. THE INFLUENCE OF THE INCOMING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
OFFER SOME HEIGHT FALLS, HOWEVER A RATHER TOASTY BOUNDARY LAYER
LOOKS TO BE MAINTAINED.

WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS TO START THURSDAY WITH MAYBE A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM, WE THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO
GET TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR MANY AREAS ESPECIALLY THE
DELAWARE VALLEY. THIS PUTS HEAT INDICES VERY CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES
FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS OF MOST CONCERN FOR THE
URBAN CENTERS WHERE HEAT REMAINS TRAPPED DURING THE NIGHT AS WELL.
AS A RESULT, FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR FROM WILMINGTON TO
PHILADELPHIA TO TRENTON AND THE IMMEDIATE NEARBY LOCATIONS WE
OPTED TO CARRY AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY.

REGARDING CONVECTION, A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER IN THE
DAY HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE HOT AND HUMID
AIRMASS TO PROMOTE STORM INITIATION TO OUR WEST. IT IS NOT QUITE
CLEAR IF WE CAN GET SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN THE MORNING AS THE
MOISTURE POOLS, OTHERWISE WE FOCUS ON THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS AS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. THE GREATEST SHEAR
THOUGH IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH WHERE A MID LEVEL SPEED
MAX MOVES THROUGH. THE SIGNALS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE A
LINE/BROKEN LINE OR CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARRIVING FROM THE WEST.
IF ENOUGH ORGANIZATION CAN OCCUR AND ALSO FACTORING IN PRECIPITATION
LOADING OF THE DOWNDRAFTS, LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS COULD RESULT. IN
ADDITION, PW VALUES ABOUT 2 INCHES WILL PROMOTE TORRENTIAL RAIN
WITHIN CONVECTIVE CORES AND THIS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

THE CONVECTION SHOULD WANE DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS BUT THEN SLOWS AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST. THEREFORE WE KEPT
THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. THE FRONT
LOOKS TO STALL OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT. AS OF NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OFFSHORE WITH DRYING OCCURRING ACROSS OUR
AREA. ANOTHER WARM TO EVEN HOT DAY ON FRIDAY, HOWEVER THE DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NOTICEABLY LOWER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH IT MAY WEAKEN SOME SUNDAY AS A RIDGE IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD. THIS KEEPS A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT RIPPLES OF ENERGY
ALONG IT REMAIN TO OUR EAST. SINCE THE TRUE COOLING AFFECTS FROM THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARE RELEGATED WELL TO OUR NORTH, THE VERY WARM TO
HOT CONDITIONS PERSIST ALTHOUGH DEW POINTS MAY REMAIN ON THE LOWER
SIDE. A WEAK FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH LATER
SATURDAY, HOWEVER MUCH OF THE LIFT MAY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE OFFSHORE FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS SOME ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT OUR WAY DURING TUESDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTION MAINLY DURING THAT TIME. IT
APPEARS THAT MANY AREAS SHOULD ADD TO THE STRETCH OF 90+ DEGREE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...PATCHY COUNTRYSIDE FOG DISSIPATES BY 12Z. OTRW VFR WITH
SCT CLOUDS AOA 6000 FT THIS AFTN. ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE VCNTY
KGED AND KESN LATE THIS AFTN. SW WIND GUST NEAR 15 KT THIS AFTN
EXCEPT SOUTH SOUTHEAST SEABREEZES DEVELOPING COASTAL LOCATIONS
16Z-18Z.

TONIGHT....VFR TO START THEN PATCHY MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN FOG/STRATUS/
HAZE LATE, ESPECIALLY NW NJ AND PTNS E PA. CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
TSTM VCNTY KPHL/KMIV TOWARD 10Z.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...SOME FOG/HAZE POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN MOSTLY VFR. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF A LINE. SOME
CEILING AND ESPECIALLY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR A
TIME AS A RESULT. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS, THEN
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS AT NIGHT AND BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR AS A FRONT LINGERS OFFSHORE. WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS FRIDAY, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY NEAR 5
KNOTS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOY 44009 SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE DATA HAS RETURNED TO SERVICE.

NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS GENERALLY AOB 3 FT THROUGH
TONIGHT. SW WIND GUSTS LESS 15KT EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING SSE
THIS AFTN AND SLY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK... THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. A SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE THOUGH THURSDAY AHEAD
OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT, HOWEVER GUSTS SHOULD BE BELOW 25 KNOTS.
THE SEAS WILL RESPOND FOR A TIME, HOWEVER THEY SHOULD BE BELOW 5
FEET. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT, WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE. THE FRONT THEN LINGERS OFFSHORE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A SPOTTY MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS
RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE OCEAN COUNTY PORTION OF NEW JERSEY OTHERWISE
A LOW RISK ELSEWHERE.

OF CONCERN IS THE CONTINUED HOT WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL SST`S PLAYING
A ROLE IN SWIMMER BEHAVIOR. EVEN WITH A LOW RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENT FORMATION, THEY CAN OCCUR. IT TAKES ONLY ONE TO BE FATAL.
FOR OUR SAFETY, LETS SWIM IN THE PRESENCE OF LIFEGUARDS WHO ARE
TRAINED TO WATCH, RESCUE AND OTHERWISE MINIMIZE OCEAN WATER
RELATED HAZARDS IN THE SWIMMING SURF ZONE.  THANK YOU.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KACY RAINFALL 6.58 RANKED 14TH WETTEST NOW WITH THE POR DATING
BACK THROUGH 1874. WETTEST 13.09 IN 1959.

KABE WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE NEAR RECORD WARMTH THIS AFTERNOON-JULY
29. THE RECORD THERE IS 96 SET IN 1954. RIGHT NOW WE`RE FCSTG 95.

KRDG AND KMPO MAY BE THE OTHER LOCATIONS WITHIN 2F OF THE RECORD
FOR THIS DATE

KRDG - 97 SET BACK IN 2002.
KMPO - 90 SET BACK IN 1949.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR NJZ015-017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG 619
SHORT TERM...DRAG 619
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 619
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 619
RIP CURRENTS... 619
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KLWX 290912
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
512 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
PERSISTS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM FOR N-CNTRL VA AND N-CNTRL SHEN VLY
PER AWOS AND TRAFFIC CAMS.

AS OF 07Z...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS...H5
HIGH CENTERED OVER OK AND WEAK HIGH AT THE SFC...INCLUDING THE MID-
ATLANTIC. DEEP COLD CORE LOW IS OVER LAKE WINNIPEG AND HEADING
TOWARD HUDSON BAY. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED AS THEY HAVE MOVED
SOUTH INTO THE CWA.

ANOTHER DAY OF HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE STEERING FLOW WITH
AFTERNOON SLOW MOVING CONVECTIVE THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED COVERAGE
IN HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN QUARTER OF THE CWA...ISOLATED ELSEWHERE.
MAX TEMPS AROUND 90F ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE CWA.
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW 70S FOR HEAT INDICES OF UPR 90S TO 100F
IN URBAN CENTERS LIKE BALT AND WASH.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT (NOW STRUNG OUT FROM THE PARENT LOW OVER
ONTARIO) CROSSES THE MID-ATLANTIC WITH PREFRONTAL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES REACHING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE
INCREASING CLOUDS WITH MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY. POPS INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY PER DIURNAL TRENDS. FRONT IS A
BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN PREVIOUS...COMES IN QUICKER WITH AFTERNOON
LIKELY POPS FOR BALT-WASH METRO THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPS LOW TO
POSSIBLY MID 90S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHOULD IT PUSH THROUGH
SOONER...TEMPS WOULD BE MODERATED. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S RESULT
IN HEAT INDICES AROUND 100F.

THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT CLEARS THE SERN ZONES THURSDAY EVENING
WITH COOLER AIR TRAILING. MIN TEMPS 60S WEST OF I-95...LOW 70S
EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN FOR LAST DAY OF JULY THROUGH THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF AUGUST...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT. FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE CWA
BY 8 AM FRIDAY...THOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN MARYLAND. NOT MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE CHANGE WITH THIS
FRONT...AS TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE U80S/L90S. BUT
DEWPOINTS DROP AT LEAST TEN DEGREES...AND GENERALLY REMAIN AOB 65F
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
TEMPS REMAINING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE VERY LOW...WITH NO DECENT
SOURCE OF LIFT AND QUALITY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHUNTED OFF TO OUR
SOUTHEAST. WHILE LOW...BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP OCCUR MONDAY IN OUR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES AS MOISTURE RETURN SLOWLY COMMENCES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR VSBYS/POSSIBLE CIGS THROUGH SUNRISE UNDER WEAK FLOW AND CLEAR
SKIES...PARTICULARLY WHERE IT RAINED LATE TUESDAY. VFR THEN PREVAILS
INTO TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF LOW CHANCES FOR TSTMS...PARTICULARLY NEAR
KCHO THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES TERMINALS THURSDAY WITH
LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON FOR DC METROS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR SLY CHANNELING THIS EVENING SOUTH OF SANDY PT.
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE. WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES WATERS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

WINDS EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA FRIDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LOW CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WATERS MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ026-027-
     029-030-050>052-055-056-502.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/MSE
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...BAJ/MSE
MARINE...BAJ/MSE




000
FXUS61 KLWX 290912
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
512 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
PERSISTS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM FOR N-CNTRL VA AND N-CNTRL SHEN VLY
PER AWOS AND TRAFFIC CAMS.

AS OF 07Z...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS...H5
HIGH CENTERED OVER OK AND WEAK HIGH AT THE SFC...INCLUDING THE MID-
ATLANTIC. DEEP COLD CORE LOW IS OVER LAKE WINNIPEG AND HEADING
TOWARD HUDSON BAY. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED AS THEY HAVE MOVED
SOUTH INTO THE CWA.

ANOTHER DAY OF HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE STEERING FLOW WITH
AFTERNOON SLOW MOVING CONVECTIVE THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED COVERAGE
IN HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN QUARTER OF THE CWA...ISOLATED ELSEWHERE.
MAX TEMPS AROUND 90F ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE CWA.
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW 70S FOR HEAT INDICES OF UPR 90S TO 100F
IN URBAN CENTERS LIKE BALT AND WASH.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT (NOW STRUNG OUT FROM THE PARENT LOW OVER
ONTARIO) CROSSES THE MID-ATLANTIC WITH PREFRONTAL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES REACHING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE
INCREASING CLOUDS WITH MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY. POPS INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY PER DIURNAL TRENDS. FRONT IS A
BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN PREVIOUS...COMES IN QUICKER WITH AFTERNOON
LIKELY POPS FOR BALT-WASH METRO THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPS LOW TO
POSSIBLY MID 90S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHOULD IT PUSH THROUGH
SOONER...TEMPS WOULD BE MODERATED. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S RESULT
IN HEAT INDICES AROUND 100F.

THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT CLEARS THE SERN ZONES THURSDAY EVENING
WITH COOLER AIR TRAILING. MIN TEMPS 60S WEST OF I-95...LOW 70S
EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN FOR LAST DAY OF JULY THROUGH THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF AUGUST...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT. FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE CWA
BY 8 AM FRIDAY...THOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN MARYLAND. NOT MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE CHANGE WITH THIS
FRONT...AS TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE U80S/L90S. BUT
DEWPOINTS DROP AT LEAST TEN DEGREES...AND GENERALLY REMAIN AOB 65F
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
TEMPS REMAINING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE VERY LOW...WITH NO DECENT
SOURCE OF LIFT AND QUALITY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHUNTED OFF TO OUR
SOUTHEAST. WHILE LOW...BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP OCCUR MONDAY IN OUR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES AS MOISTURE RETURN SLOWLY COMMENCES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR VSBYS/POSSIBLE CIGS THROUGH SUNRISE UNDER WEAK FLOW AND CLEAR
SKIES...PARTICULARLY WHERE IT RAINED LATE TUESDAY. VFR THEN PREVAILS
INTO TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF LOW CHANCES FOR TSTMS...PARTICULARLY NEAR
KCHO THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES TERMINALS THURSDAY WITH
LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON FOR DC METROS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR SLY CHANNELING THIS EVENING SOUTH OF SANDY PT.
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE. WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES WATERS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

WINDS EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA FRIDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LOW CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WATERS MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ026-027-
     029-030-050>052-055-056-502.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/MSE
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...BAJ/MSE
MARINE...BAJ/MSE



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290829
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
429 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK OVER THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ISOLD -SHRAS RMN WELL W OF I-95 ATTM. AREAS OF FG (ESP WHERE RA
OCCURRED TUE) WILL BE INCLUDED IN FCST (AWAY FM THE CST AND IN SE
VA/NE NC) THROUGH ABT 13Z/29. WRT POPS...WILL HOLD ONTO SLGT CHC
POPS ALG-W OF I-95 THIS MRNG. OVERALL WX PATTERN RMNS UNCHANGED FM
TUE. WK UPR LVL RIDGING RMNS JUST OF THE FA...W/ LGT NW FLO ALOFT
INTO THE MDATLC STATES. XPCG SIMILAR COVERAGE AREA TO CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TDA...MNLY AWAY FM THE CST. LOCALLY HVY RA/BRIEF GUSTY
WNDS PRIMARY THREATS FM ANY TSTMS. HOLDING ONTO 25-30% POPS ALG
AND W OF I-95...10-20% ELSW. OTRW...VRB CLDS TO PARTLY SUNNY W/ HI
TEMPS IN THE U80S-ARND 90F...W/ L-M80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SEASONABLE ANG TNGT AFT ANY CONVECTION DIMINISHES BY MDNGT. LO
TEMPS IN THE L/M 70S.

THURSDAY...
UPR RIDGING RETROGRADES A BIT THURSDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT...CHC POPS (30-50%) WILL REMAIN ACRS NNW AREAS DURING THE
AFTN...LWRG TO 15-20% ACRS FAR SE VA/CSTL NE NC. HI TEMPS IN THE
L90S...XCP M/U80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING
ACROSS FAR SE VA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY. HAVE CHC POPS
(30-50%) MOST AREAS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THROUGH MIDDAY
FRI...THEN FOCUS LINGERING CHC POPS ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC FRIDAY
AFTN. DRY WX SHOULD RETURN TO NW AREAS BY LATE MORNING OR
AFTERNOON. LO TEMPS THU NGT IN THE 70S. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE U80S-
L90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE SW CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTING ACRS HUDSON BAY
CANADA. GFS/ECMWF INTO BETTER DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT...THEN FLATTEN OUT
SUN WITH A SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACRS THE MID ATLC BY MON.

FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS OVER FAR SRN VA/NC LATE FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND. BEST CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH/MAINLY
NE NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT EVEN HERE WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20-30%
POPS/PRIMARILY FOR THE AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME (TAPERED TO 20% FAR
SRN VA AND DRY ELSEWHERE). DID RAISE POPS A BIT FOR MON DUE TO THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AS THIS IS 5-6
DAYS OUT SO WILL GENLY KEEP POPS ONLY AT 30-40% SOUTH TO 20% NORTH.
KEEPING POPS AROUND 20% ALL AREAS TUE. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE
MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND.
LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPR LEVEL RIDGING WILL EXPAND EWD FM THE SRN PLAINS TODAY. THIS
WILL HELP TO LIMIT AFTN TSTMS FOR THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA
(INCLUDING TAF SITES KSBY/KPHF/KORF/KECG). HOWEVER...THERE IS
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND ENERGY WRAPPING ARND THE UPR RIDGE TO
KEEP VCSH AT KRIC (INCLUDING AREAS ALONG AND W OF INTERSTATE 95).
OVERALL SHEAR REMAINS VERY WEAK...THEREFORE THE MAIN THREAT WITH
AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING QUICK REDUCTIONS
TO CIGS (MVFR) AND VSBYS (IFR). A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY PUSH
INTO AND ACRS THE MID ATLC REGION THU THRU FRI AFTN. THIS FRONT
WILL PROVIDE SCTD TSTM CHCS AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU THU NGT. WEAK SFC HI
PRES IS CENTERED OFF THE CST WITH WEAK SFC TROFFING INLAND ACRS
THE PIEDMONT AND CSTL PLAIN. S/SW WINDS 5-10 KT WERE OCCURRING
EARLY THIS MORNG. MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT WINDS MAY BE A
LITTLE STRONGER LATE THIS AFTN/TNGT...AS SFC/LEE TROF OVER VA
DEEPENS SLIGHTLY AND HELPS S/SE WINDS AVG NEAR 15 KT IN THE CHES
BAY. COULD BE A FEW HRS WORTH OF 20 KT GUSTS IN THE BAY...BUT TOO
MARGINAL TO CONSIDER ANY SCA HEADLINES FOR NOW. WAVES GENERALLY
1-2 FT IN THE BAY...BUT WILL PROBABLY BLD TO 2-3 FT THIS EVENG.
SEAS 2-3 FT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WTRS LATE THU...THEN STALLS
SSE OF THE AREA BY LATE FRI. S/SE WINDS AVG 10-15 KT...TURNING
SSW THU NGT. NOT A STRONG COOL SURGE ON FRI...AS WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NNE FRI MORNG INTO FRI AFTN...THEN TURN TO THE ESE BY LATE IN
THE DAY. WINDS THEN TURN BACK TO THE SSW FOR FRI NGT AND SAT...AS
THE FRONT DISSIPATES SSE OF THE REGION. WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290829
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
429 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK OVER THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ISOLD -SHRAS RMN WELL W OF I-95 ATTM. AREAS OF FG (ESP WHERE RA
OCCURRED TUE) WILL BE INCLUDED IN FCST (AWAY FM THE CST AND IN SE
VA/NE NC) THROUGH ABT 13Z/29. WRT POPS...WILL HOLD ONTO SLGT CHC
POPS ALG-W OF I-95 THIS MRNG. OVERALL WX PATTERN RMNS UNCHANGED FM
TUE. WK UPR LVL RIDGING RMNS JUST OF THE FA...W/ LGT NW FLO ALOFT
INTO THE MDATLC STATES. XPCG SIMILAR COVERAGE AREA TO CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TDA...MNLY AWAY FM THE CST. LOCALLY HVY RA/BRIEF GUSTY
WNDS PRIMARY THREATS FM ANY TSTMS. HOLDING ONTO 25-30% POPS ALG
AND W OF I-95...10-20% ELSW. OTRW...VRB CLDS TO PARTLY SUNNY W/ HI
TEMPS IN THE U80S-ARND 90F...W/ L-M80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SEASONABLE ANG TNGT AFT ANY CONVECTION DIMINISHES BY MDNGT. LO
TEMPS IN THE L/M 70S.

THURSDAY...
UPR RIDGING RETROGRADES A BIT THURSDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT...CHC POPS (30-50%) WILL REMAIN ACRS NNW AREAS DURING THE
AFTN...LWRG TO 15-20% ACRS FAR SE VA/CSTL NE NC. HI TEMPS IN THE
L90S...XCP M/U80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING
ACROSS FAR SE VA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY. HAVE CHC POPS
(30-50%) MOST AREAS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THROUGH MIDDAY
FRI...THEN FOCUS LINGERING CHC POPS ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC FRIDAY
AFTN. DRY WX SHOULD RETURN TO NW AREAS BY LATE MORNING OR
AFTERNOON. LO TEMPS THU NGT IN THE 70S. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE U80S-
L90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE SW CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTING ACRS HUDSON BAY
CANADA. GFS/ECMWF INTO BETTER DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT...THEN FLATTEN OUT
SUN WITH A SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACRS THE MID ATLC BY MON.

FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS OVER FAR SRN VA/NC LATE FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND. BEST CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH/MAINLY
NE NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT EVEN HERE WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20-30%
POPS/PRIMARILY FOR THE AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME (TAPERED TO 20% FAR
SRN VA AND DRY ELSEWHERE). DID RAISE POPS A BIT FOR MON DUE TO THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AS THIS IS 5-6
DAYS OUT SO WILL GENLY KEEP POPS ONLY AT 30-40% SOUTH TO 20% NORTH.
KEEPING POPS AROUND 20% ALL AREAS TUE. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE
MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND.
LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPR LEVEL RIDGING WILL EXPAND EWD FM THE SRN PLAINS TODAY. THIS
WILL HELP TO LIMIT AFTN TSTMS FOR THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA
(INCLUDING TAF SITES KSBY/KPHF/KORF/KECG). HOWEVER...THERE IS
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND ENERGY WRAPPING ARND THE UPR RIDGE TO
KEEP VCSH AT KRIC (INCLUDING AREAS ALONG AND W OF INTERSTATE 95).
OVERALL SHEAR REMAINS VERY WEAK...THEREFORE THE MAIN THREAT WITH
AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING QUICK REDUCTIONS
TO CIGS (MVFR) AND VSBYS (IFR). A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY PUSH
INTO AND ACRS THE MID ATLC REGION THU THRU FRI AFTN. THIS FRONT
WILL PROVIDE SCTD TSTM CHCS AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU THU NGT. WEAK SFC HI
PRES IS CENTERED OFF THE CST WITH WEAK SFC TROFFING INLAND ACRS
THE PIEDMONT AND CSTL PLAIN. S/SW WINDS 5-10 KT WERE OCCURRING
EARLY THIS MORNG. MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT WINDS MAY BE A
LITTLE STRONGER LATE THIS AFTN/TNGT...AS SFC/LEE TROF OVER VA
DEEPENS SLIGHTLY AND HELPS S/SE WINDS AVG NEAR 15 KT IN THE CHES
BAY. COULD BE A FEW HRS WORTH OF 20 KT GUSTS IN THE BAY...BUT TOO
MARGINAL TO CONSIDER ANY SCA HEADLINES FOR NOW. WAVES GENERALLY
1-2 FT IN THE BAY...BUT WILL PROBABLY BLD TO 2-3 FT THIS EVENG.
SEAS 2-3 FT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WTRS LATE THU...THEN STALLS
SSE OF THE AREA BY LATE FRI. S/SE WINDS AVG 10-15 KT...TURNING
SSW THU NGT. NOT A STRONG COOL SURGE ON FRI...AS WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NNE FRI MORNG INTO FRI AFTN...THEN TURN TO THE ESE BY LATE IN
THE DAY. WINDS THEN TURN BACK TO THE SSW FOR FRI NGT AND SAT...AS
THE FRONT DISSIPATES SSE OF THE REGION. WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG




000
FXUS61 KLWX 290800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
PERSISTS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 07Z...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS...H5
HIGH CENTERED OVER OK AND WEAK HIGH AT THE SFC...INCLUDING THE MID-
ATLANTIC. DEEP COLD CORE LOW IS OVER LAKE WINNIPEG AND HEADING
TOWARD HUDSON BAY. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED AS THEY HAVE MOVED
SOUTH INTO THE CWA. PATCHY DENSE FOG CONTINUES...SHOULD AREAS BE
IDENTIFIED...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED.

ANOTHER DAY OF HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE STEERING FLOW WITH
AFTERNOON SLOW MOVING CONVECTIVE THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED COVERAGE
IN HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN QUARTER OF THE CWA...ISOLATED ELSEWHERE.
MAX TEMPS AROUND 90F ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE CWA.
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW 70S FOR HEAT INDICES OF UPR 90S TO 100F
IN URBAN CENTERS LIKE BALT AND WASH.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT (NOW STRUNG OUT FROM THE PARENT LOW OVER
ONTARIO) CROSSES THE MID-ATLANTIC WITH PREFRONTAL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES REACHING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE
INCREASING CLOUDS WITH MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY. POPS INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY PER DIURNAL TRENDS. FRONT IS A
BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN PREVIOUS...COMES IN QUICKER WITH AFTERNOON
LIKELY POPS FOR BALT-WASH METRO THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPS LOW TO
POSSIBLY MID 90S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHOULD IT PUSH THROUGH
SOONER...TEMPS WOULD BE MODERATED. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S RESULT
IN HEAT INDICES AROUND 100F.

THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT CLEARS THE SERN ZONES THURSDAY EVENING
WITH COOLER AIR TRAILING. MIN TEMPS 60S WEST OF I-95...LOW 70S
EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN FOR LAST DAY OF JULY THROUGH THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF AUGUST...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT. FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE CWA
BY 8 AM FRIDAY...THOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN MARYLAND. NOT MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE CHANGE WITH THIS
FRONT...AS TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE U80S/L90S. BUT
DEWPOINTS DROP AT LEAST TEN DEGREES...AND GENERALLY REMAIN AOB 65F
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
TEMPS REMAINING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE VERY LOW...WITH NO DECENT
SOURCE OF LIFT AND QUALITY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHUNTED OFF TO OUR
SOUTHEAST. WHILE LOW...BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP OCCUR MONDAY IN OUR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES AS MOISTURE RETURN SLOWLY COMMENCES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR VSBYS/POSSIBLE CIGS THROUGH SUNRISE UNDER WEAK FLOW AND CLEAR
SKIES...PARTICULARLY WHERE IT RAINED LATE TUESDAY. VFR THEN PREVAILS
INTO TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF LOW CHANCES FOR TSTMS...PARTICULARLY NEAR
KCHO THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES TERMINALS THURSDAY WITH
LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON FOR DC METROS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR SLY CHANNELING THIS EVENING SOUTH OF SANDY PT.
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE. WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES WATERS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

WINDS EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA FRIDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LOW CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WATERS MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/MSE
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...BAJ/MSE
MARINE...BAJ/MSE



000
FXUS61 KLWX 290800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
PERSISTS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 07Z...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS...H5
HIGH CENTERED OVER OK AND WEAK HIGH AT THE SFC...INCLUDING THE MID-
ATLANTIC. DEEP COLD CORE LOW IS OVER LAKE WINNIPEG AND HEADING
TOWARD HUDSON BAY. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED AS THEY HAVE MOVED
SOUTH INTO THE CWA. PATCHY DENSE FOG CONTINUES...SHOULD AREAS BE
IDENTIFIED...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED.

ANOTHER DAY OF HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE STEERING FLOW WITH
AFTERNOON SLOW MOVING CONVECTIVE THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED COVERAGE
IN HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN QUARTER OF THE CWA...ISOLATED ELSEWHERE.
MAX TEMPS AROUND 90F ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE CWA.
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW 70S FOR HEAT INDICES OF UPR 90S TO 100F
IN URBAN CENTERS LIKE BALT AND WASH.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT (NOW STRUNG OUT FROM THE PARENT LOW OVER
ONTARIO) CROSSES THE MID-ATLANTIC WITH PREFRONTAL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES REACHING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE
INCREASING CLOUDS WITH MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY. POPS INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY PER DIURNAL TRENDS. FRONT IS A
BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN PREVIOUS...COMES IN QUICKER WITH AFTERNOON
LIKELY POPS FOR BALT-WASH METRO THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPS LOW TO
POSSIBLY MID 90S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHOULD IT PUSH THROUGH
SOONER...TEMPS WOULD BE MODERATED. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S RESULT
IN HEAT INDICES AROUND 100F.

THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT CLEARS THE SERN ZONES THURSDAY EVENING
WITH COOLER AIR TRAILING. MIN TEMPS 60S WEST OF I-95...LOW 70S
EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN FOR LAST DAY OF JULY THROUGH THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF AUGUST...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT. FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE CWA
BY 8 AM FRIDAY...THOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN MARYLAND. NOT MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE CHANGE WITH THIS
FRONT...AS TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE U80S/L90S. BUT
DEWPOINTS DROP AT LEAST TEN DEGREES...AND GENERALLY REMAIN AOB 65F
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
TEMPS REMAINING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE VERY LOW...WITH NO DECENT
SOURCE OF LIFT AND QUALITY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHUNTED OFF TO OUR
SOUTHEAST. WHILE LOW...BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP OCCUR MONDAY IN OUR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES AS MOISTURE RETURN SLOWLY COMMENCES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR VSBYS/POSSIBLE CIGS THROUGH SUNRISE UNDER WEAK FLOW AND CLEAR
SKIES...PARTICULARLY WHERE IT RAINED LATE TUESDAY. VFR THEN PREVAILS
INTO TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF LOW CHANCES FOR TSTMS...PARTICULARLY NEAR
KCHO THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES TERMINALS THURSDAY WITH
LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON FOR DC METROS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR SLY CHANNELING THIS EVENING SOUTH OF SANDY PT.
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE. WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES WATERS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

WINDS EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA FRIDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LOW CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WATERS MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/MSE
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...BAJ/MSE
MARINE...BAJ/MSE




000
FXUS61 KPHI 290752
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
352 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST TODAY. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT,
HOWEVER IT THEN SLOWS OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT
SHOULD CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE. A POTENTIALLY STRONGER COLD FRONT IS THEN SCHEDULED TO
ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE WEAK BOUNDARY HAS TEMPORARILY WASHED OUT AS LESS DEFINED AND
NORTHWARD TO NEAR I-78 EARLY THIS MORNING. A LITTLE FOG WILL FORM
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS BUT NOT AS EXTENSIVE AS SEEN IN YDYS 9Z-
10Z OBS. THE AREAS WHERE IT RAINED LATE YDY MAY BE MORE PREDISPOSED
TO FOG FORMATION.

AFTER SUNRISE...THE BOUNDARY DRYING BECOMES EVIDENT BY FORENOON
WITH HIGHEST DEWPOINTS AND MLCAPE THIS AFTN (400J) CONFINED TO
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR DELMARVA FCST AREA WHERE AM CARRYING A
SLIGHT CHC FOR A THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN. PWAT INCREASES TO
1.7 INCHES THERE LATE TODAY.

ELSEWHERE...HOT HOT HOT AND USED THE GFS MAVMOS STRAIGHT UP. SEA
BREEZES WILL EVENTUALLY MITIGATE SOME OF THE PURE HEAT IN DE AND
NJ BUT THIS WILL BE A TOASTY DAY WITH 18C AT 850 AND NEAR RECORD
IN SOME PLACES. PLS SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR THE VULNERABLE
RECORDS.

MAX HI TODAY 98-99F...BASICALLY JUST BELOW URBAN CORRIDOR CRITERIA
OF 100...BUT SINCE DITTO THURSDAY AND WARM NIGHT WE ISSUED A TWO
DAY WARNING.

SW WINDS THIS AFTN MAY GUST 15 MPH IN A FEW SPOTS WITH SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTS BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM.

CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
ANY SHOWERS ON THE DELMARVA SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 00Z.

THEREAFTER...SLY FLOW AND MORE HUMID WITH PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS
FORMING. PWAT INCREASES TO 1.9 INCHES BY MORNING ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR. MODELS HAVE A WEAK IB THRUST ACROSS DE AND S NJ
OVERNIGHT WHERE SCT OR ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS MIGHT
DEVELOP.

TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND USED A BLEND OF 00Z/29 NAM/GFS MOS
WITH A FAVORING OF THE WARMER AVBL GUIDANCE.

CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE EXCEPT BELOW AVG ON CONVECTION FORMING
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A NARROWING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
THURSDAY THAT SHIFTS TO OUR EAST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO OVERSPREAD THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DESPITE THIS TROUGH IN PLACE, WE ARE MAINLY ON
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF IT THEREFORE A RATHER WARM TO HOT AIRMASS
WILL BE IN PLACE. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THURSDAY LOOKS TO BRING THE
GREATEST CHC FOR CONVECTION, THEN WE AWAIT FOR THE NEXT POTENTIALLY
STRONGER FRONT TO ARRIVE DURING TUESDAY. WE USED A MODEL BLEND
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN WENT WITH A WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND
THEREAFTER.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS A NARROWING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE, WE START TO BECOME INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTHERN CANADA. A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL PULL ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE
CWA WHICH WILL BE REFLECTED IN HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY. THE AIRMASS AT 850 MB IS FORECAST TO BE SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY THEREFORE ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER THE
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS CLOUD COVER AND THE TIMING OF CONVECTION
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THURSDAY. IF THIS IS
DELAYED LATE ENOUGH WITH MORE SUNSHINE, THEN HEAT INDICES WILL BE A
BIT HIGHER. THE INFLUENCE OF THE INCOMING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
OFFER SOME HEIGHT FALLS, HOWEVER A RATHER TOASTY BOUNDARY LAYER
LOOKS TO BE MAINTAINED.

WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS TO START THURSDAY WITH MAYBE A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM, WE THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO
GET TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR MANY AREAS ESPECIALLY THE
DELAWARE VALLEY. THIS PUTS HEAT INDICES VERY CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES
FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS OF MOST CONCERN FOR THE
URBAN CENTERS WHERE HEAT REMAINS TRAPPED DURING THE NIGHT AS WELL.
AS A RESULT, FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR FROM WILMINGTON TO
PHILADELPHIA TO TRENTON AND THE IMMEDIATE NEARBY LOCATIONS WE
OPTED TO CARRY AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY.

REGARDING CONVECTION, A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER IN THE
DAY HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE HOT AND HUMID
AIRMASS TO PROMOTE STORM INITIATION TO OUR WEST. IT IS NOT QUITE
CLEAR IF WE CAN GET SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN THE MORNING AS THE
MOISTURE POOLS, OTHERWISE WE FOCUS ON THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS AS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. THE GREATEST SHEAR
THOUGH IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH WHERE A MID LEVEL SPEED
MAX MOVES THROUGH. THE SIGNALS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE A
LINE/BROKEN LINE OR CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARRIVING FROM THE WEST.
IF ENOUGH ORGANIZATION CAN OCCUR AND ALSO FACTORING IN PRECIPITATION
LOADING OF THE DOWNDRAFTS, LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS COULD RESULT. IN
ADDITION, PW VALUES ABOUT 2 INCHES WILL PROMOTE TORRENTIAL RAIN
WITHIN CONVECTIVE CORES AND THIS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

THE CONVECTION SHOULD WANE DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS BUT THEN SLOWS AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST. THEREFORE WE KEPT
THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. THE FRONT
LOOKS TO STALL OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT. AS OF NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OFFSHORE WITH DRYING OCCURRING ACROSS OUR
AREA. ANOTHER WARM TO EVEN HOT DAY ON FRIDAY, HOWEVER THE DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NOTICEABLY LOWER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH IT MAY WEAKEN SOME SUNDAY AS A RIDGE IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD. THIS KEEPS A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT RIPPLES OF ENERGY
ALONG IT REMAIN TO OUR EAST. SINCE THE TRUE COOLING AFFECTS FROM THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARE RELEGATED WELL TO OUR NORTH, THE VERY WARM TO
HOT CONDITIONS PERSIST ALTHOUGH DEW POINTS MAY REMAIN ON THE LOWER
SIDE. A WEAK FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH LATER
SATURDAY, HOWEVER MUCH OF THE LIFT MAY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE OFFSHORE FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS SOME ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT OUR WAY DURING TUESDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTION MAINLY DURING THAT TIME. IT
APPEARS THAT MANY AREAS SHOULD ADD TO THE STRETCH OF 90+ DEGREE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR FOG IN THE 6Z-12Z TIME FRAME.
LIGHT MOSTLY SW WIND.

AFTER 12Z...VFR WITH CLOUDS AOA 6000 FT THIS AFTN. ISOLATED TSTMS
POSSIBLE VCNTY KGED AND KESN MID OR LATE THIS AFTN. SW WIND GUST
NEAR 15 KT THIS AFTN EXCEPT SOUTH SOUTHEAST SEABREEZES DEVELOPING
COASTAL LOCATIONS 16Z-18Z.

TONIGHT....VFR TO START THEN PATCHY MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN FOG/STRATUS/
HAZE LATE, ESPECIALLY NW NJ AND PTNS E PA.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...SOME FOG/HAZE POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN MOSTLY VFR. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF A LINE. SOME
CEILING AND ESPECIALLY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR A
TIME AS A RESULT. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS, THEN
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS AT NIGHT AND BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR AS A FRONT LINGERS OFFSHORE. WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS FRIDAY, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY NEAR 5
KNOTS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOY 44009 SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE DATA HAS RETURNED.

NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT. A DISTANT OCEAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND IS PRODUCING A LITTLE MORE SWELL THAN
ANTICIPATED. STILL ATLC SEAS AOB 4 FT THROUGH TONIGHT. SW WINDS
LESS 18KT EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING SSE THIS AFTN AND SLY
TONIGHT... ALL GUST SPEEDS AOB 22 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE
THOUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT, HOWEVER GUSTS
SHOULD BE BELOW 25 KNOTS. THE SEAS WILL RESPOND FOR A TIME, HOWEVER
THEY SHOULD BE BELOW 5 FEET. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE
THURSDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT, WITH LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. THE FRONT THEN LINGERS OFFSHORE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COAST TODAY DUE TO A
LONG PERIOD SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL. THE WAVE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO
BE AROUND 10 SECONDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KACY RAINFALL 6.58 RANKED 14TH WETTEST NOW WITH THE POR DATING
BACK THROUGH 1874. WETTEST 13.09 IN 1959.

KABE WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE NEAR RECORD WARMTH THIS AFTERNOON-JULY
29. THE RECORD THERE IS 96 SET IN 1954. RIGHT NOW WE`RE FCSTG 95.

KRDG AND KMPO MAY BE THE OTHER LOCATIONS WITHIN 2F OF THE RECORD
FOR THIS DATE

KRDG - 97 SET BACK IN 2002.
KMPO - 90 SET BACK IN 1949.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR NJZ015-017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 290752
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
352 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST TODAY. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT,
HOWEVER IT THEN SLOWS OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT
SHOULD CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE. A POTENTIALLY STRONGER COLD FRONT IS THEN SCHEDULED TO
ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE WEAK BOUNDARY HAS TEMPORARILY WASHED OUT AS LESS DEFINED AND
NORTHWARD TO NEAR I-78 EARLY THIS MORNING. A LITTLE FOG WILL FORM
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS BUT NOT AS EXTENSIVE AS SEEN IN YDYS 9Z-
10Z OBS. THE AREAS WHERE IT RAINED LATE YDY MAY BE MORE PREDISPOSED
TO FOG FORMATION.

AFTER SUNRISE...THE BOUNDARY DRYING BECOMES EVIDENT BY FORENOON
WITH HIGHEST DEWPOINTS AND MLCAPE THIS AFTN (400J) CONFINED TO
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR DELMARVA FCST AREA WHERE AM CARRYING A
SLIGHT CHC FOR A THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN. PWAT INCREASES TO
1.7 INCHES THERE LATE TODAY.

ELSEWHERE...HOT HOT HOT AND USED THE GFS MAVMOS STRAIGHT UP. SEA
BREEZES WILL EVENTUALLY MITIGATE SOME OF THE PURE HEAT IN DE AND
NJ BUT THIS WILL BE A TOASTY DAY WITH 18C AT 850 AND NEAR RECORD
IN SOME PLACES. PLS SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR THE VULNERABLE
RECORDS.

MAX HI TODAY 98-99F...BASICALLY JUST BELOW URBAN CORRIDOR CRITERIA
OF 100...BUT SINCE DITTO THURSDAY AND WARM NIGHT WE ISSUED A TWO
DAY WARNING.

SW WINDS THIS AFTN MAY GUST 15 MPH IN A FEW SPOTS WITH SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTS BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM.

CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
ANY SHOWERS ON THE DELMARVA SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 00Z.

THEREAFTER...SLY FLOW AND MORE HUMID WITH PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS
FORMING. PWAT INCREASES TO 1.9 INCHES BY MORNING ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR. MODELS HAVE A WEAK IB THRUST ACROSS DE AND S NJ
OVERNIGHT WHERE SCT OR ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS MIGHT
DEVELOP.

TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND USED A BLEND OF 00Z/29 NAM/GFS MOS
WITH A FAVORING OF THE WARMER AVBL GUIDANCE.

CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE EXCEPT BELOW AVG ON CONVECTION FORMING
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A NARROWING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
THURSDAY THAT SHIFTS TO OUR EAST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO OVERSPREAD THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DESPITE THIS TROUGH IN PLACE, WE ARE MAINLY ON
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF IT THEREFORE A RATHER WARM TO HOT AIRMASS
WILL BE IN PLACE. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THURSDAY LOOKS TO BRING THE
GREATEST CHC FOR CONVECTION, THEN WE AWAIT FOR THE NEXT POTENTIALLY
STRONGER FRONT TO ARRIVE DURING TUESDAY. WE USED A MODEL BLEND
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN WENT WITH A WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND
THEREAFTER.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS A NARROWING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE, WE START TO BECOME INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTHERN CANADA. A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL PULL ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE
CWA WHICH WILL BE REFLECTED IN HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY. THE AIRMASS AT 850 MB IS FORECAST TO BE SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY THEREFORE ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER THE
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS CLOUD COVER AND THE TIMING OF CONVECTION
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THURSDAY. IF THIS IS
DELAYED LATE ENOUGH WITH MORE SUNSHINE, THEN HEAT INDICES WILL BE A
BIT HIGHER. THE INFLUENCE OF THE INCOMING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
OFFER SOME HEIGHT FALLS, HOWEVER A RATHER TOASTY BOUNDARY LAYER
LOOKS TO BE MAINTAINED.

WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS TO START THURSDAY WITH MAYBE A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM, WE THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO
GET TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR MANY AREAS ESPECIALLY THE
DELAWARE VALLEY. THIS PUTS HEAT INDICES VERY CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES
FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS OF MOST CONCERN FOR THE
URBAN CENTERS WHERE HEAT REMAINS TRAPPED DURING THE NIGHT AS WELL.
AS A RESULT, FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR FROM WILMINGTON TO
PHILADELPHIA TO TRENTON AND THE IMMEDIATE NEARBY LOCATIONS WE
OPTED TO CARRY AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY.

REGARDING CONVECTION, A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER IN THE
DAY HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE HOT AND HUMID
AIRMASS TO PROMOTE STORM INITIATION TO OUR WEST. IT IS NOT QUITE
CLEAR IF WE CAN GET SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN THE MORNING AS THE
MOISTURE POOLS, OTHERWISE WE FOCUS ON THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS AS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. THE GREATEST SHEAR
THOUGH IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH WHERE A MID LEVEL SPEED
MAX MOVES THROUGH. THE SIGNALS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE A
LINE/BROKEN LINE OR CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARRIVING FROM THE WEST.
IF ENOUGH ORGANIZATION CAN OCCUR AND ALSO FACTORING IN PRECIPITATION
LOADING OF THE DOWNDRAFTS, LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS COULD RESULT. IN
ADDITION, PW VALUES ABOUT 2 INCHES WILL PROMOTE TORRENTIAL RAIN
WITHIN CONVECTIVE CORES AND THIS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

THE CONVECTION SHOULD WANE DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS BUT THEN SLOWS AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST. THEREFORE WE KEPT
THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. THE FRONT
LOOKS TO STALL OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT. AS OF NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OFFSHORE WITH DRYING OCCURRING ACROSS OUR
AREA. ANOTHER WARM TO EVEN HOT DAY ON FRIDAY, HOWEVER THE DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NOTICEABLY LOWER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH IT MAY WEAKEN SOME SUNDAY AS A RIDGE IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD. THIS KEEPS A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT RIPPLES OF ENERGY
ALONG IT REMAIN TO OUR EAST. SINCE THE TRUE COOLING AFFECTS FROM THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARE RELEGATED WELL TO OUR NORTH, THE VERY WARM TO
HOT CONDITIONS PERSIST ALTHOUGH DEW POINTS MAY REMAIN ON THE LOWER
SIDE. A WEAK FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH LATER
SATURDAY, HOWEVER MUCH OF THE LIFT MAY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE OFFSHORE FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS SOME ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT OUR WAY DURING TUESDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTION MAINLY DURING THAT TIME. IT
APPEARS THAT MANY AREAS SHOULD ADD TO THE STRETCH OF 90+ DEGREE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR FOG IN THE 6Z-12Z TIME FRAME.
LIGHT MOSTLY SW WIND.

AFTER 12Z...VFR WITH CLOUDS AOA 6000 FT THIS AFTN. ISOLATED TSTMS
POSSIBLE VCNTY KGED AND KESN MID OR LATE THIS AFTN. SW WIND GUST
NEAR 15 KT THIS AFTN EXCEPT SOUTH SOUTHEAST SEABREEZES DEVELOPING
COASTAL LOCATIONS 16Z-18Z.

TONIGHT....VFR TO START THEN PATCHY MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN FOG/STRATUS/
HAZE LATE, ESPECIALLY NW NJ AND PTNS E PA.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...SOME FOG/HAZE POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN MOSTLY VFR. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF A LINE. SOME
CEILING AND ESPECIALLY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR A
TIME AS A RESULT. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS, THEN
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS AT NIGHT AND BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR AS A FRONT LINGERS OFFSHORE. WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS FRIDAY, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY NEAR 5
KNOTS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOY 44009 SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE DATA HAS RETURNED.

NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT. A DISTANT OCEAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND IS PRODUCING A LITTLE MORE SWELL THAN
ANTICIPATED. STILL ATLC SEAS AOB 4 FT THROUGH TONIGHT. SW WINDS
LESS 18KT EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING SSE THIS AFTN AND SLY
TONIGHT... ALL GUST SPEEDS AOB 22 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE
THOUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT, HOWEVER GUSTS
SHOULD BE BELOW 25 KNOTS. THE SEAS WILL RESPOND FOR A TIME, HOWEVER
THEY SHOULD BE BELOW 5 FEET. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE
THURSDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT, WITH LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. THE FRONT THEN LINGERS OFFSHORE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COAST TODAY DUE TO A
LONG PERIOD SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL. THE WAVE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO
BE AROUND 10 SECONDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KACY RAINFALL 6.58 RANKED 14TH WETTEST NOW WITH THE POR DATING
BACK THROUGH 1874. WETTEST 13.09 IN 1959.

KABE WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE NEAR RECORD WARMTH THIS AFTERNOON-JULY
29. THE RECORD THERE IS 96 SET IN 1954. RIGHT NOW WE`RE FCSTG 95.

KRDG AND KMPO MAY BE THE OTHER LOCATIONS WITHIN 2F OF THE RECORD
FOR THIS DATE

KRDG - 97 SET BACK IN 2002.
KMPO - 90 SET BACK IN 1949.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR NJZ015-017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 290752
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
352 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST TODAY. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT,
HOWEVER IT THEN SLOWS OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT
SHOULD CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE. A POTENTIALLY STRONGER COLD FRONT IS THEN SCHEDULED TO
ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE WEAK BOUNDARY HAS TEMPORARILY WASHED OUT AS LESS DEFINED AND
NORTHWARD TO NEAR I-78 EARLY THIS MORNING. A LITTLE FOG WILL FORM
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS BUT NOT AS EXTENSIVE AS SEEN IN YDYS 9Z-
10Z OBS. THE AREAS WHERE IT RAINED LATE YDY MAY BE MORE PREDISPOSED
TO FOG FORMATION.

AFTER SUNRISE...THE BOUNDARY DRYING BECOMES EVIDENT BY FORENOON
WITH HIGHEST DEWPOINTS AND MLCAPE THIS AFTN (400J) CONFINED TO
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR DELMARVA FCST AREA WHERE AM CARRYING A
SLIGHT CHC FOR A THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN. PWAT INCREASES TO
1.7 INCHES THERE LATE TODAY.

ELSEWHERE...HOT HOT HOT AND USED THE GFS MAVMOS STRAIGHT UP. SEA
BREEZES WILL EVENTUALLY MITIGATE SOME OF THE PURE HEAT IN DE AND
NJ BUT THIS WILL BE A TOASTY DAY WITH 18C AT 850 AND NEAR RECORD
IN SOME PLACES. PLS SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR THE VULNERABLE
RECORDS.

MAX HI TODAY 98-99F...BASICALLY JUST BELOW URBAN CORRIDOR CRITERIA
OF 100...BUT SINCE DITTO THURSDAY AND WARM NIGHT WE ISSUED A TWO
DAY WARNING.

SW WINDS THIS AFTN MAY GUST 15 MPH IN A FEW SPOTS WITH SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTS BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM.

CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
ANY SHOWERS ON THE DELMARVA SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 00Z.

THEREAFTER...SLY FLOW AND MORE HUMID WITH PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS
FORMING. PWAT INCREASES TO 1.9 INCHES BY MORNING ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR. MODELS HAVE A WEAK IB THRUST ACROSS DE AND S NJ
OVERNIGHT WHERE SCT OR ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS MIGHT
DEVELOP.

TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND USED A BLEND OF 00Z/29 NAM/GFS MOS
WITH A FAVORING OF THE WARMER AVBL GUIDANCE.

CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE EXCEPT BELOW AVG ON CONVECTION FORMING
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A NARROWING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
THURSDAY THAT SHIFTS TO OUR EAST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO OVERSPREAD THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DESPITE THIS TROUGH IN PLACE, WE ARE MAINLY ON
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF IT THEREFORE A RATHER WARM TO HOT AIRMASS
WILL BE IN PLACE. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THURSDAY LOOKS TO BRING THE
GREATEST CHC FOR CONVECTION, THEN WE AWAIT FOR THE NEXT POTENTIALLY
STRONGER FRONT TO ARRIVE DURING TUESDAY. WE USED A MODEL BLEND
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN WENT WITH A WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND
THEREAFTER.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS A NARROWING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE, WE START TO BECOME INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTHERN CANADA. A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL PULL ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE
CWA WHICH WILL BE REFLECTED IN HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY. THE AIRMASS AT 850 MB IS FORECAST TO BE SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY THEREFORE ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER THE
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS CLOUD COVER AND THE TIMING OF CONVECTION
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THURSDAY. IF THIS IS
DELAYED LATE ENOUGH WITH MORE SUNSHINE, THEN HEAT INDICES WILL BE A
BIT HIGHER. THE INFLUENCE OF THE INCOMING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
OFFER SOME HEIGHT FALLS, HOWEVER A RATHER TOASTY BOUNDARY LAYER
LOOKS TO BE MAINTAINED.

WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS TO START THURSDAY WITH MAYBE A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM, WE THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO
GET TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR MANY AREAS ESPECIALLY THE
DELAWARE VALLEY. THIS PUTS HEAT INDICES VERY CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES
FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS OF MOST CONCERN FOR THE
URBAN CENTERS WHERE HEAT REMAINS TRAPPED DURING THE NIGHT AS WELL.
AS A RESULT, FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR FROM WILMINGTON TO
PHILADELPHIA TO TRENTON AND THE IMMEDIATE NEARBY LOCATIONS WE
OPTED TO CARRY AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY.

REGARDING CONVECTION, A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER IN THE
DAY HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE HOT AND HUMID
AIRMASS TO PROMOTE STORM INITIATION TO OUR WEST. IT IS NOT QUITE
CLEAR IF WE CAN GET SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN THE MORNING AS THE
MOISTURE POOLS, OTHERWISE WE FOCUS ON THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS AS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. THE GREATEST SHEAR
THOUGH IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH WHERE A MID LEVEL SPEED
MAX MOVES THROUGH. THE SIGNALS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE A
LINE/BROKEN LINE OR CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARRIVING FROM THE WEST.
IF ENOUGH ORGANIZATION CAN OCCUR AND ALSO FACTORING IN PRECIPITATION
LOADING OF THE DOWNDRAFTS, LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS COULD RESULT. IN
ADDITION, PW VALUES ABOUT 2 INCHES WILL PROMOTE TORRENTIAL RAIN
WITHIN CONVECTIVE CORES AND THIS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

THE CONVECTION SHOULD WANE DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS BUT THEN SLOWS AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST. THEREFORE WE KEPT
THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. THE FRONT
LOOKS TO STALL OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT. AS OF NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OFFSHORE WITH DRYING OCCURRING ACROSS OUR
AREA. ANOTHER WARM TO EVEN HOT DAY ON FRIDAY, HOWEVER THE DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NOTICEABLY LOWER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH IT MAY WEAKEN SOME SUNDAY AS A RIDGE IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD. THIS KEEPS A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT RIPPLES OF ENERGY
ALONG IT REMAIN TO OUR EAST. SINCE THE TRUE COOLING AFFECTS FROM THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARE RELEGATED WELL TO OUR NORTH, THE VERY WARM TO
HOT CONDITIONS PERSIST ALTHOUGH DEW POINTS MAY REMAIN ON THE LOWER
SIDE. A WEAK FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH LATER
SATURDAY, HOWEVER MUCH OF THE LIFT MAY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE OFFSHORE FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS SOME ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT OUR WAY DURING TUESDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTION MAINLY DURING THAT TIME. IT
APPEARS THAT MANY AREAS SHOULD ADD TO THE STRETCH OF 90+ DEGREE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR FOG IN THE 6Z-12Z TIME FRAME.
LIGHT MOSTLY SW WIND.

AFTER 12Z...VFR WITH CLOUDS AOA 6000 FT THIS AFTN. ISOLATED TSTMS
POSSIBLE VCNTY KGED AND KESN MID OR LATE THIS AFTN. SW WIND GUST
NEAR 15 KT THIS AFTN EXCEPT SOUTH SOUTHEAST SEABREEZES DEVELOPING
COASTAL LOCATIONS 16Z-18Z.

TONIGHT....VFR TO START THEN PATCHY MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN FOG/STRATUS/
HAZE LATE, ESPECIALLY NW NJ AND PTNS E PA.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...SOME FOG/HAZE POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN MOSTLY VFR. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF A LINE. SOME
CEILING AND ESPECIALLY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR A
TIME AS A RESULT. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS, THEN
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS AT NIGHT AND BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR AS A FRONT LINGERS OFFSHORE. WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS FRIDAY, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY NEAR 5
KNOTS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOY 44009 SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE DATA HAS RETURNED.

NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT. A DISTANT OCEAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND IS PRODUCING A LITTLE MORE SWELL THAN
ANTICIPATED. STILL ATLC SEAS AOB 4 FT THROUGH TONIGHT. SW WINDS
LESS 18KT EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING SSE THIS AFTN AND SLY
TONIGHT... ALL GUST SPEEDS AOB 22 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE
THOUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT, HOWEVER GUSTS
SHOULD BE BELOW 25 KNOTS. THE SEAS WILL RESPOND FOR A TIME, HOWEVER
THEY SHOULD BE BELOW 5 FEET. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE
THURSDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT, WITH LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. THE FRONT THEN LINGERS OFFSHORE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COAST TODAY DUE TO A
LONG PERIOD SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL. THE WAVE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO
BE AROUND 10 SECONDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KACY RAINFALL 6.58 RANKED 14TH WETTEST NOW WITH THE POR DATING
BACK THROUGH 1874. WETTEST 13.09 IN 1959.

KABE WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE NEAR RECORD WARMTH THIS AFTERNOON-JULY
29. THE RECORD THERE IS 96 SET IN 1954. RIGHT NOW WE`RE FCSTG 95.

KRDG AND KMPO MAY BE THE OTHER LOCATIONS WITHIN 2F OF THE RECORD
FOR THIS DATE

KRDG - 97 SET BACK IN 2002.
KMPO - 90 SET BACK IN 1949.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR NJZ015-017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 290752
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
352 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST TODAY. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT,
HOWEVER IT THEN SLOWS OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT
SHOULD CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE. A POTENTIALLY STRONGER COLD FRONT IS THEN SCHEDULED TO
ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE WEAK BOUNDARY HAS TEMPORARILY WASHED OUT AS LESS DEFINED AND
NORTHWARD TO NEAR I-78 EARLY THIS MORNING. A LITTLE FOG WILL FORM
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS BUT NOT AS EXTENSIVE AS SEEN IN YDYS 9Z-
10Z OBS. THE AREAS WHERE IT RAINED LATE YDY MAY BE MORE PREDISPOSED
TO FOG FORMATION.

AFTER SUNRISE...THE BOUNDARY DRYING BECOMES EVIDENT BY FORENOON
WITH HIGHEST DEWPOINTS AND MLCAPE THIS AFTN (400J) CONFINED TO
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR DELMARVA FCST AREA WHERE AM CARRYING A
SLIGHT CHC FOR A THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN. PWAT INCREASES TO
1.7 INCHES THERE LATE TODAY.

ELSEWHERE...HOT HOT HOT AND USED THE GFS MAVMOS STRAIGHT UP. SEA
BREEZES WILL EVENTUALLY MITIGATE SOME OF THE PURE HEAT IN DE AND
NJ BUT THIS WILL BE A TOASTY DAY WITH 18C AT 850 AND NEAR RECORD
IN SOME PLACES. PLS SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR THE VULNERABLE
RECORDS.

MAX HI TODAY 98-99F...BASICALLY JUST BELOW URBAN CORRIDOR CRITERIA
OF 100...BUT SINCE DITTO THURSDAY AND WARM NIGHT WE ISSUED A TWO
DAY WARNING.

SW WINDS THIS AFTN MAY GUST 15 MPH IN A FEW SPOTS WITH SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTS BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM.

CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
ANY SHOWERS ON THE DELMARVA SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 00Z.

THEREAFTER...SLY FLOW AND MORE HUMID WITH PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS
FORMING. PWAT INCREASES TO 1.9 INCHES BY MORNING ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR. MODELS HAVE A WEAK IB THRUST ACROSS DE AND S NJ
OVERNIGHT WHERE SCT OR ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS MIGHT
DEVELOP.

TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND USED A BLEND OF 00Z/29 NAM/GFS MOS
WITH A FAVORING OF THE WARMER AVBL GUIDANCE.

CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE EXCEPT BELOW AVG ON CONVECTION FORMING
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A NARROWING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
THURSDAY THAT SHIFTS TO OUR EAST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO OVERSPREAD THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DESPITE THIS TROUGH IN PLACE, WE ARE MAINLY ON
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF IT THEREFORE A RATHER WARM TO HOT AIRMASS
WILL BE IN PLACE. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THURSDAY LOOKS TO BRING THE
GREATEST CHC FOR CONVECTION, THEN WE AWAIT FOR THE NEXT POTENTIALLY
STRONGER FRONT TO ARRIVE DURING TUESDAY. WE USED A MODEL BLEND
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN WENT WITH A WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND
THEREAFTER.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS A NARROWING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE, WE START TO BECOME INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTHERN CANADA. A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL PULL ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE
CWA WHICH WILL BE REFLECTED IN HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY. THE AIRMASS AT 850 MB IS FORECAST TO BE SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY THEREFORE ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER THE
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS CLOUD COVER AND THE TIMING OF CONVECTION
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THURSDAY. IF THIS IS
DELAYED LATE ENOUGH WITH MORE SUNSHINE, THEN HEAT INDICES WILL BE A
BIT HIGHER. THE INFLUENCE OF THE INCOMING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
OFFER SOME HEIGHT FALLS, HOWEVER A RATHER TOASTY BOUNDARY LAYER
LOOKS TO BE MAINTAINED.

WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS TO START THURSDAY WITH MAYBE A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM, WE THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO
GET TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR MANY AREAS ESPECIALLY THE
DELAWARE VALLEY. THIS PUTS HEAT INDICES VERY CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES
FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS OF MOST CONCERN FOR THE
URBAN CENTERS WHERE HEAT REMAINS TRAPPED DURING THE NIGHT AS WELL.
AS A RESULT, FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR FROM WILMINGTON TO
PHILADELPHIA TO TRENTON AND THE IMMEDIATE NEARBY LOCATIONS WE
OPTED TO CARRY AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY.

REGARDING CONVECTION, A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER IN THE
DAY HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE HOT AND HUMID
AIRMASS TO PROMOTE STORM INITIATION TO OUR WEST. IT IS NOT QUITE
CLEAR IF WE CAN GET SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN THE MORNING AS THE
MOISTURE POOLS, OTHERWISE WE FOCUS ON THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS AS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. THE GREATEST SHEAR
THOUGH IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH WHERE A MID LEVEL SPEED
MAX MOVES THROUGH. THE SIGNALS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE A
LINE/BROKEN LINE OR CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARRIVING FROM THE WEST.
IF ENOUGH ORGANIZATION CAN OCCUR AND ALSO FACTORING IN PRECIPITATION
LOADING OF THE DOWNDRAFTS, LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS COULD RESULT. IN
ADDITION, PW VALUES ABOUT 2 INCHES WILL PROMOTE TORRENTIAL RAIN
WITHIN CONVECTIVE CORES AND THIS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

THE CONVECTION SHOULD WANE DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS BUT THEN SLOWS AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST. THEREFORE WE KEPT
THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. THE FRONT
LOOKS TO STALL OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT. AS OF NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OFFSHORE WITH DRYING OCCURRING ACROSS OUR
AREA. ANOTHER WARM TO EVEN HOT DAY ON FRIDAY, HOWEVER THE DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NOTICEABLY LOWER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH IT MAY WEAKEN SOME SUNDAY AS A RIDGE IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD. THIS KEEPS A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT RIPPLES OF ENERGY
ALONG IT REMAIN TO OUR EAST. SINCE THE TRUE COOLING AFFECTS FROM THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARE RELEGATED WELL TO OUR NORTH, THE VERY WARM TO
HOT CONDITIONS PERSIST ALTHOUGH DEW POINTS MAY REMAIN ON THE LOWER
SIDE. A WEAK FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH LATER
SATURDAY, HOWEVER MUCH OF THE LIFT MAY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE OFFSHORE FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS SOME ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT OUR WAY DURING TUESDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTION MAINLY DURING THAT TIME. IT
APPEARS THAT MANY AREAS SHOULD ADD TO THE STRETCH OF 90+ DEGREE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR FOG IN THE 6Z-12Z TIME FRAME.
LIGHT MOSTLY SW WIND.

AFTER 12Z...VFR WITH CLOUDS AOA 6000 FT THIS AFTN. ISOLATED TSTMS
POSSIBLE VCNTY KGED AND KESN MID OR LATE THIS AFTN. SW WIND GUST
NEAR 15 KT THIS AFTN EXCEPT SOUTH SOUTHEAST SEABREEZES DEVELOPING
COASTAL LOCATIONS 16Z-18Z.

TONIGHT....VFR TO START THEN PATCHY MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN FOG/STRATUS/
HAZE LATE, ESPECIALLY NW NJ AND PTNS E PA.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...SOME FOG/HAZE POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN MOSTLY VFR. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF A LINE. SOME
CEILING AND ESPECIALLY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR A
TIME AS A RESULT. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS, THEN
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS AT NIGHT AND BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR AS A FRONT LINGERS OFFSHORE. WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS FRIDAY, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY NEAR 5
KNOTS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOY 44009 SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE DATA HAS RETURNED.

NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT. A DISTANT OCEAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND IS PRODUCING A LITTLE MORE SWELL THAN
ANTICIPATED. STILL ATLC SEAS AOB 4 FT THROUGH TONIGHT. SW WINDS
LESS 18KT EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING SSE THIS AFTN AND SLY
TONIGHT... ALL GUST SPEEDS AOB 22 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE
THOUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT, HOWEVER GUSTS
SHOULD BE BELOW 25 KNOTS. THE SEAS WILL RESPOND FOR A TIME, HOWEVER
THEY SHOULD BE BELOW 5 FEET. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE
THURSDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT, WITH LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. THE FRONT THEN LINGERS OFFSHORE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COAST TODAY DUE TO A
LONG PERIOD SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL. THE WAVE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO
BE AROUND 10 SECONDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KACY RAINFALL 6.58 RANKED 14TH WETTEST NOW WITH THE POR DATING
BACK THROUGH 1874. WETTEST 13.09 IN 1959.

KABE WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE NEAR RECORD WARMTH THIS AFTERNOON-JULY
29. THE RECORD THERE IS 96 SET IN 1954. RIGHT NOW WE`RE FCSTG 95.

KRDG AND KMPO MAY BE THE OTHER LOCATIONS WITHIN 2F OF THE RECORD
FOR THIS DATE

KRDG - 97 SET BACK IN 2002.
KMPO - 90 SET BACK IN 1949.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR NJZ015-017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290740
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
340 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK OVER THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ISOLD -SHRAS RMN WELL W OF I-95 ATTM. AREAS OF FG (ESP WHERE RA
OCCURRED TUE) WILL BE INCLUDED IN FCST (AWAY FM THE CST AND IN SE
VA/NE NC) THROUGH ABT 13Z/29. WRT POPS...WILL HOLD ONTO SLGT CHC
POPS ALG-W OF I-95 THIS MRNG. OVERALL WX PATTERN RMNS UNCHANGED FM
TUE. WK UPR LVL RIDGING RMNS JUST OF THE FA...W/ LGT NW FLO ALOFT
INTO THE MDATLC STATES. XPCG SIMILAR COVERAGE AREA TO CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TDA...MNLY AWAY FM THE CST. LOCALLY HVY RA/BRIEF GUSTY
WNDS PRIMARY THREATS FM ANY TSTMS. HOLDING ONTO 25-30% POPS ALG
AND W OF I-95...10-20% ELSW. OTRW...VRB CLDS TO PARTLY SUNNY W/ HI
TEMPS IN THE U80S-ARND 90F...W/ L-M80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SEASONABLE ANG TNGT AFT ANY CONVECTION DIMINISHES BY MDNGT. LO
TEMPS IN THE L/M 70S.

THURSDAY...
UPR RIDGING RETROGRADES A BIT THURSDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT...CHC POPS (30-50%) WILL REMAIN ACRS NNW AREAS DURING THE
AFTN...LWRG TO 15-20% ACRS FAR SE VA/CSTL NE NC. HI TEMPS IN THE
L90S...XCP M/U80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING
ACROSS FAR SE VA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY. HAVE CHC POPS
(30-50%) MOST AREAS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THROUGH MIDDAY
FRI...THEN FOCUS LINGERING CHC POPS ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC FRIDAY
AFTN. DRY WX SHOULD RETURN TO NW AREAS BY LATE MORNING OR
AFTERNOON. LO TEMPS THU NGT IN THE 70S. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE U80S-
L90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE SW CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTING ACRS HUDSON BAY
CANADA. GFS/ECMWF INTO BETTER DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT...THEN FLATTEN OUT
SUN WITH A SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACRS THE MID ATLC BY MON.

FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS OVER FAR SRN VA/NC LATE FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND. BEST CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH/MAINLY
NE NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT EVEN HERE WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20-30%
POPS/PRIMARILY FOR THE AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME (TAPERED TO 20% FAR
SRN VA AND DRY ELSEWHERE). DID RAISE POPS A BIT FOR MON DUE TO THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AS THIS IS 5-6
DAYS OUT SO WILL GENLY KEEP POPS ONLY AT 30-40% SOUTH TO 20% NORTH.
KEEPING POPS AROUND 20% ALL AREAS TUE. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE
MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND.
LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPR LEVEL RIDGING WILL EXPAND EWD FM THE SRN PLAINS TODAY. THIS
WILL HELP TO LIMIT AFTN TSTMS FOR THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA
(INCLUDING TAF SITES KSBY/KPHF/KORF/KECG). HOWEVER...THERE IS
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND ENERGY WRAPPING ARND THE UPR RIDGE TO
KEEP VCSH AT KRIC (INCLUDING AREAS ALONG AND W OF INTERSTATE 95).
OVERALL SHEAR REMAINS VERY WEAK...THEREFORE THE MAIN THREAT WITH
AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING QUICK REDUCTIONS
TO CIGS (MVFR) AND VSBYS (IFR). A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY PUSH
INTO AND ACRS THE MID ATLC REGION THU THRU FRI AFTN. THIS FRONT
WILL PROVIDE SCTD TSTM CHCS AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST WITH
WEAK SFC TROUGHING INLAND ACRS THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. S/SE
WINDS AVG 10-15 KT THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AND WILL DROP OFF TO
S/SW 5-10 KT WED MORNING. MODELS SUGGEST THAT WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE
STRONGER LATE WED AFTN/WED NIGHT AS SFC/LEE TROUGH OVER VA DEEPENS
SLIGHTLY AND HELPS S/SE WINDS AVG AROUND 15 KT IN THE BAY. COULD BE
A FEW HRS WORTH OF 20 KT GUSTS IN THE BAY BUT TOO MARGINAL TO
CONSIDER ANY SCA HEADLINES FOR NOW. WAVES GENLY 1-2 FT IN THE
BAY BUT WILL PROBABLY BUILD TO 2-3 FT WED EVENING. SEAS 2-3 FT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE THU...THEN STALLS SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE WEEK. S/SE WINDS AVG 10-15 KT...TURNING
SSW THU NIGHT. NOT A STRONG COOL SURGE ON FRI AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTH WITH THE FRONT DISSIPATING OVER SRN VA/ERN NC SO WILL KEEP
WINDS IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE. FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO E/SE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...LKB/TMG



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290740
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
340 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK OVER THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ISOLD -SHRAS RMN WELL W OF I-95 ATTM. AREAS OF FG (ESP WHERE RA
OCCURRED TUE) WILL BE INCLUDED IN FCST (AWAY FM THE CST AND IN SE
VA/NE NC) THROUGH ABT 13Z/29. WRT POPS...WILL HOLD ONTO SLGT CHC
POPS ALG-W OF I-95 THIS MRNG. OVERALL WX PATTERN RMNS UNCHANGED FM
TUE. WK UPR LVL RIDGING RMNS JUST OF THE FA...W/ LGT NW FLO ALOFT
INTO THE MDATLC STATES. XPCG SIMILAR COVERAGE AREA TO CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TDA...MNLY AWAY FM THE CST. LOCALLY HVY RA/BRIEF GUSTY
WNDS PRIMARY THREATS FM ANY TSTMS. HOLDING ONTO 25-30% POPS ALG
AND W OF I-95...10-20% ELSW. OTRW...VRB CLDS TO PARTLY SUNNY W/ HI
TEMPS IN THE U80S-ARND 90F...W/ L-M80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SEASONABLE ANG TNGT AFT ANY CONVECTION DIMINISHES BY MDNGT. LO
TEMPS IN THE L/M 70S.

THURSDAY...
UPR RIDGING RETROGRADES A BIT THURSDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT...CHC POPS (30-50%) WILL REMAIN ACRS NNW AREAS DURING THE
AFTN...LWRG TO 15-20% ACRS FAR SE VA/CSTL NE NC. HI TEMPS IN THE
L90S...XCP M/U80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING
ACROSS FAR SE VA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY. HAVE CHC POPS
(30-50%) MOST AREAS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THROUGH MIDDAY
FRI...THEN FOCUS LINGERING CHC POPS ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC FRIDAY
AFTN. DRY WX SHOULD RETURN TO NW AREAS BY LATE MORNING OR
AFTERNOON. LO TEMPS THU NGT IN THE 70S. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE U80S-
L90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE SW CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTING ACRS HUDSON BAY
CANADA. GFS/ECMWF INTO BETTER DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT...THEN FLATTEN OUT
SUN WITH A SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACRS THE MID ATLC BY MON.

FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS OVER FAR SRN VA/NC LATE FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND. BEST CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH/MAINLY
NE NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT EVEN HERE WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20-30%
POPS/PRIMARILY FOR THE AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME (TAPERED TO 20% FAR
SRN VA AND DRY ELSEWHERE). DID RAISE POPS A BIT FOR MON DUE TO THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AS THIS IS 5-6
DAYS OUT SO WILL GENLY KEEP POPS ONLY AT 30-40% SOUTH TO 20% NORTH.
KEEPING POPS AROUND 20% ALL AREAS TUE. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE
MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND.
LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPR LEVEL RIDGING WILL EXPAND EWD FM THE SRN PLAINS TODAY. THIS
WILL HELP TO LIMIT AFTN TSTMS FOR THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA
(INCLUDING TAF SITES KSBY/KPHF/KORF/KECG). HOWEVER...THERE IS
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND ENERGY WRAPPING ARND THE UPR RIDGE TO
KEEP VCSH AT KRIC (INCLUDING AREAS ALONG AND W OF INTERSTATE 95).
OVERALL SHEAR REMAINS VERY WEAK...THEREFORE THE MAIN THREAT WITH
AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING QUICK REDUCTIONS
TO CIGS (MVFR) AND VSBYS (IFR). A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY PUSH
INTO AND ACRS THE MID ATLC REGION THU THRU FRI AFTN. THIS FRONT
WILL PROVIDE SCTD TSTM CHCS AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST WITH
WEAK SFC TROUGHING INLAND ACRS THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. S/SE
WINDS AVG 10-15 KT THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AND WILL DROP OFF TO
S/SW 5-10 KT WED MORNING. MODELS SUGGEST THAT WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE
STRONGER LATE WED AFTN/WED NIGHT AS SFC/LEE TROUGH OVER VA DEEPENS
SLIGHTLY AND HELPS S/SE WINDS AVG AROUND 15 KT IN THE BAY. COULD BE
A FEW HRS WORTH OF 20 KT GUSTS IN THE BAY BUT TOO MARGINAL TO
CONSIDER ANY SCA HEADLINES FOR NOW. WAVES GENLY 1-2 FT IN THE
BAY BUT WILL PROBABLY BUILD TO 2-3 FT WED EVENING. SEAS 2-3 FT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE THU...THEN STALLS SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE WEEK. S/SE WINDS AVG 10-15 KT...TURNING
SSW THU NIGHT. NOT A STRONG COOL SURGE ON FRI AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTH WITH THE FRONT DISSIPATING OVER SRN VA/ERN NC SO WILL KEEP
WINDS IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE. FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO E/SE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...LKB/TMG




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290740
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
340 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK OVER THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ISOLD -SHRAS RMN WELL W OF I-95 ATTM. AREAS OF FG (ESP WHERE RA
OCCURRED TUE) WILL BE INCLUDED IN FCST (AWAY FM THE CST AND IN SE
VA/NE NC) THROUGH ABT 13Z/29. WRT POPS...WILL HOLD ONTO SLGT CHC
POPS ALG-W OF I-95 THIS MRNG. OVERALL WX PATTERN RMNS UNCHANGED FM
TUE. WK UPR LVL RIDGING RMNS JUST OF THE FA...W/ LGT NW FLO ALOFT
INTO THE MDATLC STATES. XPCG SIMILAR COVERAGE AREA TO CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TDA...MNLY AWAY FM THE CST. LOCALLY HVY RA/BRIEF GUSTY
WNDS PRIMARY THREATS FM ANY TSTMS. HOLDING ONTO 25-30% POPS ALG
AND W OF I-95...10-20% ELSW. OTRW...VRB CLDS TO PARTLY SUNNY W/ HI
TEMPS IN THE U80S-ARND 90F...W/ L-M80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SEASONABLE ANG TNGT AFT ANY CONVECTION DIMINISHES BY MDNGT. LO
TEMPS IN THE L/M 70S.

THURSDAY...
UPR RIDGING RETROGRADES A BIT THURSDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT...CHC POPS (30-50%) WILL REMAIN ACRS NNW AREAS DURING THE
AFTN...LWRG TO 15-20% ACRS FAR SE VA/CSTL NE NC. HI TEMPS IN THE
L90S...XCP M/U80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING
ACROSS FAR SE VA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY. HAVE CHC POPS
(30-50%) MOST AREAS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THROUGH MIDDAY
FRI...THEN FOCUS LINGERING CHC POPS ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC FRIDAY
AFTN. DRY WX SHOULD RETURN TO NW AREAS BY LATE MORNING OR
AFTERNOON. LO TEMPS THU NGT IN THE 70S. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE U80S-
L90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE SW CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTING ACRS HUDSON BAY
CANADA. GFS/ECMWF INTO BETTER DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT...THEN FLATTEN OUT
SUN WITH A SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACRS THE MID ATLC BY MON.

FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS OVER FAR SRN VA/NC LATE FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND. BEST CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH/MAINLY
NE NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT EVEN HERE WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20-30%
POPS/PRIMARILY FOR THE AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME (TAPERED TO 20% FAR
SRN VA AND DRY ELSEWHERE). DID RAISE POPS A BIT FOR MON DUE TO THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AS THIS IS 5-6
DAYS OUT SO WILL GENLY KEEP POPS ONLY AT 30-40% SOUTH TO 20% NORTH.
KEEPING POPS AROUND 20% ALL AREAS TUE. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE
MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND.
LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPR LEVEL RIDGING WILL EXPAND EWD FM THE SRN PLAINS TODAY. THIS
WILL HELP TO LIMIT AFTN TSTMS FOR THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA
(INCLUDING TAF SITES KSBY/KPHF/KORF/KECG). HOWEVER...THERE IS
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND ENERGY WRAPPING ARND THE UPR RIDGE TO
KEEP VCSH AT KRIC (INCLUDING AREAS ALONG AND W OF INTERSTATE 95).
OVERALL SHEAR REMAINS VERY WEAK...THEREFORE THE MAIN THREAT WITH
AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING QUICK REDUCTIONS
TO CIGS (MVFR) AND VSBYS (IFR). A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY PUSH
INTO AND ACRS THE MID ATLC REGION THU THRU FRI AFTN. THIS FRONT
WILL PROVIDE SCTD TSTM CHCS AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST WITH
WEAK SFC TROUGHING INLAND ACRS THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. S/SE
WINDS AVG 10-15 KT THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AND WILL DROP OFF TO
S/SW 5-10 KT WED MORNING. MODELS SUGGEST THAT WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE
STRONGER LATE WED AFTN/WED NIGHT AS SFC/LEE TROUGH OVER VA DEEPENS
SLIGHTLY AND HELPS S/SE WINDS AVG AROUND 15 KT IN THE BAY. COULD BE
A FEW HRS WORTH OF 20 KT GUSTS IN THE BAY BUT TOO MARGINAL TO
CONSIDER ANY SCA HEADLINES FOR NOW. WAVES GENLY 1-2 FT IN THE
BAY BUT WILL PROBABLY BUILD TO 2-3 FT WED EVENING. SEAS 2-3 FT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE THU...THEN STALLS SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE WEEK. S/SE WINDS AVG 10-15 KT...TURNING
SSW THU NIGHT. NOT A STRONG COOL SURGE ON FRI AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTH WITH THE FRONT DISSIPATING OVER SRN VA/ERN NC SO WILL KEEP
WINDS IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE. FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO E/SE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...LKB/TMG



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290740
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
340 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK OVER THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ISOLD -SHRAS RMN WELL W OF I-95 ATTM. AREAS OF FG (ESP WHERE RA
OCCURRED TUE) WILL BE INCLUDED IN FCST (AWAY FM THE CST AND IN SE
VA/NE NC) THROUGH ABT 13Z/29. WRT POPS...WILL HOLD ONTO SLGT CHC
POPS ALG-W OF I-95 THIS MRNG. OVERALL WX PATTERN RMNS UNCHANGED FM
TUE. WK UPR LVL RIDGING RMNS JUST OF THE FA...W/ LGT NW FLO ALOFT
INTO THE MDATLC STATES. XPCG SIMILAR COVERAGE AREA TO CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TDA...MNLY AWAY FM THE CST. LOCALLY HVY RA/BRIEF GUSTY
WNDS PRIMARY THREATS FM ANY TSTMS. HOLDING ONTO 25-30% POPS ALG
AND W OF I-95...10-20% ELSW. OTRW...VRB CLDS TO PARTLY SUNNY W/ HI
TEMPS IN THE U80S-ARND 90F...W/ L-M80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SEASONABLE ANG TNGT AFT ANY CONVECTION DIMINISHES BY MDNGT. LO
TEMPS IN THE L/M 70S.

THURSDAY...
UPR RIDGING RETROGRADES A BIT THURSDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT...CHC POPS (30-50%) WILL REMAIN ACRS NNW AREAS DURING THE
AFTN...LWRG TO 15-20% ACRS FAR SE VA/CSTL NE NC. HI TEMPS IN THE
L90S...XCP M/U80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING
ACROSS FAR SE VA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY. HAVE CHC POPS
(30-50%) MOST AREAS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THROUGH MIDDAY
FRI...THEN FOCUS LINGERING CHC POPS ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC FRIDAY
AFTN. DRY WX SHOULD RETURN TO NW AREAS BY LATE MORNING OR
AFTERNOON. LO TEMPS THU NGT IN THE 70S. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE U80S-
L90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE SW CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTING ACRS HUDSON BAY
CANADA. GFS/ECMWF INTO BETTER DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT...THEN FLATTEN OUT
SUN WITH A SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACRS THE MID ATLC BY MON.

FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS OVER FAR SRN VA/NC LATE FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND. BEST CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH/MAINLY
NE NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT EVEN HERE WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20-30%
POPS/PRIMARILY FOR THE AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME (TAPERED TO 20% FAR
SRN VA AND DRY ELSEWHERE). DID RAISE POPS A BIT FOR MON DUE TO THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AS THIS IS 5-6
DAYS OUT SO WILL GENLY KEEP POPS ONLY AT 30-40% SOUTH TO 20% NORTH.
KEEPING POPS AROUND 20% ALL AREAS TUE. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE
MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND.
LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPR LEVEL RIDGING WILL EXPAND EWD FM THE SRN PLAINS TODAY. THIS
WILL HELP TO LIMIT AFTN TSTMS FOR THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA
(INCLUDING TAF SITES KSBY/KPHF/KORF/KECG). HOWEVER...THERE IS
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND ENERGY WRAPPING ARND THE UPR RIDGE TO
KEEP VCSH AT KRIC (INCLUDING AREAS ALONG AND W OF INTERSTATE 95).
OVERALL SHEAR REMAINS VERY WEAK...THEREFORE THE MAIN THREAT WITH
AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING QUICK REDUCTIONS
TO CIGS (MVFR) AND VSBYS (IFR). A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY PUSH
INTO AND ACRS THE MID ATLC REGION THU THRU FRI AFTN. THIS FRONT
WILL PROVIDE SCTD TSTM CHCS AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST WITH
WEAK SFC TROUGHING INLAND ACRS THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. S/SE
WINDS AVG 10-15 KT THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AND WILL DROP OFF TO
S/SW 5-10 KT WED MORNING. MODELS SUGGEST THAT WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE
STRONGER LATE WED AFTN/WED NIGHT AS SFC/LEE TROUGH OVER VA DEEPENS
SLIGHTLY AND HELPS S/SE WINDS AVG AROUND 15 KT IN THE BAY. COULD BE
A FEW HRS WORTH OF 20 KT GUSTS IN THE BAY BUT TOO MARGINAL TO
CONSIDER ANY SCA HEADLINES FOR NOW. WAVES GENLY 1-2 FT IN THE
BAY BUT WILL PROBABLY BUILD TO 2-3 FT WED EVENING. SEAS 2-3 FT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE THU...THEN STALLS SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE WEEK. S/SE WINDS AVG 10-15 KT...TURNING
SSW THU NIGHT. NOT A STRONG COOL SURGE ON FRI AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTH WITH THE FRONT DISSIPATING OVER SRN VA/ERN NC SO WILL KEEP
WINDS IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE. FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO E/SE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...LKB/TMG




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290657
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
257 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY TODAY...THEN LESS HUMID LATER TOMORROW INTO LATE
WEEK BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONTINUED ON THE HUMID SIDE TODAY WITH DEW POINTS MAINLY IN THE
60S. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO FALL AS
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO FLATTEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. HIGHS
STILL NEAR 90 MOST LOCATIONS. BY LATE TODAY APPROACHING FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY BE ABLE TO POPS A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND NW PA...WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH CONTINUED
CHANCE POPS. OVERNIGHT TIMING AND A FAIRLY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL
KEEP ONLY CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH FROPA. LOWER DEW
POINTS WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY
AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DIMINISH NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS INTO THE EASTERN STATES NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP LOWER DEW POINTS WITH NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES INTO LATE WEEK. ADDED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY
AS MODELS LOOK TO BRING A SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGING IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE UNDER BROAD EASTERN CONUS
UPPER TROUGHING...BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONALLY WARM WEATHER
INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK WITH CROSSING SHORTWAVES. FOLLOWED
CLOSE TO WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE...WHICH SMOOTHS OUT SOME EARLY
WEEK OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OTHER THAN PATCHY MVFR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WITH
DIURNAL CU ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS SURFACE RIDING SLIDES EAST.

AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING INCREASING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO PORTS W OF THE PA BORDER BY THIS
EVENING...SO INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION AT ZZV. HOW LONG PRECIP
CONTINUES ALONG THE FRONT IS IN QUESTION AS IT MOVES INTO PA LATER
IN THE EVENING...SO MAINTAINED DRY TAFS FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
A SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290657
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
257 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY TODAY...THEN LESS HUMID LATER TOMORROW INTO LATE
WEEK BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONTINUED ON THE HUMID SIDE TODAY WITH DEW POINTS MAINLY IN THE
60S. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO FALL AS
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO FLATTEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. HIGHS
STILL NEAR 90 MOST LOCATIONS. BY LATE TODAY APPROACHING FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY BE ABLE TO POPS A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND NW PA...WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH CONTINUED
CHANCE POPS. OVERNIGHT TIMING AND A FAIRLY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL
KEEP ONLY CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH FROPA. LOWER DEW
POINTS WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY
AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DIMINISH NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS INTO THE EASTERN STATES NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP LOWER DEW POINTS WITH NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES INTO LATE WEEK. ADDED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY
AS MODELS LOOK TO BRING A SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGING IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE UNDER BROAD EASTERN CONUS
UPPER TROUGHING...BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONALLY WARM WEATHER
INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK WITH CROSSING SHORTWAVES. FOLLOWED
CLOSE TO WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE...WHICH SMOOTHS OUT SOME EARLY
WEEK OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OTHER THAN PATCHY MVFR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WITH
DIURNAL CU ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS SURFACE RIDING SLIDES EAST.

AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING INCREASING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO PORTS W OF THE PA BORDER BY THIS
EVENING...SO INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION AT ZZV. HOW LONG PRECIP
CONTINUES ALONG THE FRONT IS IN QUESTION AS IT MOVES INTO PA LATER
IN THE EVENING...SO MAINTAINED DRY TAFS FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
A SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290551
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
151 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH THE NEXT
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS AREA OF SHOWERS PERSISTING
OVER THE ERN VA PIEDMONT LATE THIS EVENING...REMAINING GENERALLY
WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA. OTHERWISE...EARLIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SHORTWAVE VISIBLE ON GOES WV
PROGGED TO DROP OVER ERN VA TONIGHT IN CONCERT WITH INCREASING
WINDS ALOFT. A WARM/MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
LOCAL AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S AND PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES.
WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO
CENTRAL VA AS RAP DEPICTS AN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
OVER THAT REGION. SKY AVERAGES PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY INLAND
AND MOSTLY CLEAR NE COUNTIES. LOWS IN THE LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO EXPAND EASTWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT AFTN CONVECTION WHILE MAX
TEMPS WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES. HAVE CHC POPS (25-30%) ALONG AND
WEST OF I-95. PARTLY SUNNY W/ HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW
90S...WITH LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. MILD WED NIGHT W/ LOW TEMPS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

THURSDAY...
UPR RIDGING RETROGRADES A BIT THURSDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT...CHC POPS (30-50%) WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE AFTN...LOWERING TO ~20% AT THE COAST. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH
INTO THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING
ACROSS FAR SE VA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY. HAVE SOLID
CHANCE POPS (30-50%) MOST AREAS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
THRU MIDDAY FRI...THEN FOCUS CHC POPS ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC
FRIDAY AFTN. DRY WX SHOULD RETURN TO NW AREAS BY LATE MORNING OR
AFTERNOON. LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 80S TO
AROUND 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE SW CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTING ACRS HUDSON BAY
CANADA. GFS/ECMWF INTO BETTER DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT...THEN FLATTEN OUT
SUN WITH A SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACRS THE MID ATLC BY MON.

FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS OVER FAR SRN VA/NC LATE FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND. BEST CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH/MAINLY
NE NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT EVEN HERE WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20-30%
POPS/PRIMARILY FOR THE AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME (TAPERED TO 20% FAR
SRN VA AND DRY ELSEWHERE). DID RAISE POPS A BIT FOR MON DUE TO THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AS THIS IS 5-6
DAYS OUT SO WILL GENLY KEEP POPS ONLY AT 30-40% SOUTH TO 20% NORTH.
KEEPING POPS AROUND 20% ALL AREAS TUE. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE
MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND.
LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPR LEVEL RIDGING WILL EXPAND EWD FM THE SRN PLAINS TODAY. THIS
WILL HELP TO LIMIT AFTN TSTMS FOR THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA
(INCLUDING TAF SITES KSBY/KPHF/KORF/KECG). HOWEVER...THERE IS
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND ENERGY WRAPPING ARND THE UPR RIDGE TO
KEEP VCSH AT KRIC (INCLUDING AREAS ALONG AND W OF INTERSTATE 95).
OVERALL SHEAR REMAINS VERY WEAK...THEREFORE THE MAIN THREAT WITH
AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING QUICK REDUCTIONS
TO CIGS (MVFR) AND VSBYS (IFR). A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY PUSH
INTO AND ACRS THE MID ATLC REGION THU THRU FRI AFTN. THIS FRONT
WILL PROVIDE SCTD TSTM CHCS AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST WITH
WEAK SFC TROUGHING INLAND ACRS THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. S/SE
WINDS AVG 10-15 KT THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AND WILL DROP OFF TO
S/SW 5-10 KT WED MORNING. MODELS SUGGEST THAT WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE
STRONGER LATE WED AFTN/WED NIGHT AS SFC/LEE TROUGH OVER VA DEEPENS
SLIGHTLY AND HELPS S/SE WINDS AVG AROUND 15 KT IN THE BAY. COULD BE
A FEW HRS WORTH OF 20 KT GUSTS IN THE BAY BUT TOO MARGINAL TO
CONSIDER ANY SCA HEADLINES FOR NOW. WAVES GENLY 1-2 FT IN THE
BAY BUT WILL PROBABLY BUILD TO 2-3 FT WED EVENING. SEAS 2-3 FT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE THU...THEN STALLS SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE WEEK. S/SE WINDS AVG 10-15 KT...TURNING
SSW THU NIGHT. NOT A STRONG COOL SURGE ON FRI AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTH WITH THE FRONT DISSIPATING OVER SRN VA/ERN NC SO WILL KEEP
WINDS IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE. FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO E/SE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/SAM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...LKB/TMG



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290522
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
122 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY TODAY...THEN MUCH LESS HUMID LATER TOMORROW INTO
LATE WEEK BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CONTINUED ON THE HUMID SIDE TODAY WITH DEW POINTS MAINLY IN THE
60S. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO FALL AS
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO FLATTEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. HIGHS
STILL NEAR 90 MOST LOCATIONS. BY LATE TODAY APPROACHING FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY BE ABLE TO POPS A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND NW PA...WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH CONTINUED
CHANCE POPS. OVERNIGHT TIMING AND A FAIRLY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL
KEEP ONLY CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH FROPA. LOWER DEW
POINTS WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY
AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DIMINISH NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS INTO THE EASTERN STATES NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP LOWER DEW POINTS WITH NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES INTO LATE WEEK. ADDED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY
AS MODELS LOOK TO BRING A SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY AND SEASONALLY WARM SUNDAY. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOLLOWED CLOSE
TO THE ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT INDIVIDUAL MODEL
DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OTHER THAN PATCHY MVFR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WITH
DIURNAL CU ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS SURFACE RIDING SLIDES EAST.

AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING INCREASING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO PORTS W OF THE PA BORDER BY THIS
EVENING...SO INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION AT ZZV. HOW LONG PRECIP
CONTINUES ALONG THE FRONT IS IN QUESTION AS IT MOVES INTO PA LATER
IN THE EVENING...SO MAINTAINED DRY TAFS FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
A SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290522
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
122 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY TODAY...THEN MUCH LESS HUMID LATER TOMORROW INTO
LATE WEEK BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CONTINUED ON THE HUMID SIDE TODAY WITH DEW POINTS MAINLY IN THE
60S. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO FALL AS
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO FLATTEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. HIGHS
STILL NEAR 90 MOST LOCATIONS. BY LATE TODAY APPROACHING FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY BE ABLE TO POPS A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND NW PA...WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH CONTINUED
CHANCE POPS. OVERNIGHT TIMING AND A FAIRLY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL
KEEP ONLY CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH FROPA. LOWER DEW
POINTS WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY
AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DIMINISH NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS INTO THE EASTERN STATES NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP LOWER DEW POINTS WITH NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES INTO LATE WEEK. ADDED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY
AS MODELS LOOK TO BRING A SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY AND SEASONALLY WARM SUNDAY. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOLLOWED CLOSE
TO THE ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT INDIVIDUAL MODEL
DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OTHER THAN PATCHY MVFR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WITH
DIURNAL CU ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS SURFACE RIDING SLIDES EAST.

AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING INCREASING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO PORTS W OF THE PA BORDER BY THIS
EVENING...SO INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION AT ZZV. HOW LONG PRECIP
CONTINUES ALONG THE FRONT IS IN QUESTION AS IT MOVES INTO PA LATER
IN THE EVENING...SO MAINTAINED DRY TAFS FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
A SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290522
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
122 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY TODAY...THEN MUCH LESS HUMID LATER TOMORROW INTO
LATE WEEK BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CONTINUED ON THE HUMID SIDE TODAY WITH DEW POINTS MAINLY IN THE
60S. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO FALL AS
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO FLATTEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. HIGHS
STILL NEAR 90 MOST LOCATIONS. BY LATE TODAY APPROACHING FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY BE ABLE TO POPS A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND NW PA...WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH CONTINUED
CHANCE POPS. OVERNIGHT TIMING AND A FAIRLY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL
KEEP ONLY CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH FROPA. LOWER DEW
POINTS WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY
AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DIMINISH NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS INTO THE EASTERN STATES NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP LOWER DEW POINTS WITH NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES INTO LATE WEEK. ADDED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY
AS MODELS LOOK TO BRING A SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY AND SEASONALLY WARM SUNDAY. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOLLOWED CLOSE
TO THE ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT INDIVIDUAL MODEL
DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OTHER THAN PATCHY MVFR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WITH
DIURNAL CU ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS SURFACE RIDING SLIDES EAST.

AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING INCREASING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO PORTS W OF THE PA BORDER BY THIS
EVENING...SO INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION AT ZZV. HOW LONG PRECIP
CONTINUES ALONG THE FRONT IS IN QUESTION AS IT MOVES INTO PA LATER
IN THE EVENING...SO MAINTAINED DRY TAFS FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
A SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290522
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
122 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY TODAY...THEN MUCH LESS HUMID LATER TOMORROW INTO
LATE WEEK BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CONTINUED ON THE HUMID SIDE TODAY WITH DEW POINTS MAINLY IN THE
60S. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO FALL AS
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO FLATTEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. HIGHS
STILL NEAR 90 MOST LOCATIONS. BY LATE TODAY APPROACHING FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY BE ABLE TO POPS A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND NW PA...WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH CONTINUED
CHANCE POPS. OVERNIGHT TIMING AND A FAIRLY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL
KEEP ONLY CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH FROPA. LOWER DEW
POINTS WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY
AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DIMINISH NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS INTO THE EASTERN STATES NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP LOWER DEW POINTS WITH NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES INTO LATE WEEK. ADDED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY
AS MODELS LOOK TO BRING A SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY AND SEASONALLY WARM SUNDAY. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOLLOWED CLOSE
TO THE ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT INDIVIDUAL MODEL
DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OTHER THAN PATCHY MVFR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WITH
DIURNAL CU ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS SURFACE RIDING SLIDES EAST.

AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING INCREASING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO PORTS W OF THE PA BORDER BY THIS
EVENING...SO INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION AT ZZV. HOW LONG PRECIP
CONTINUES ALONG THE FRONT IS IN QUESTION AS IT MOVES INTO PA LATER
IN THE EVENING...SO MAINTAINED DRY TAFS FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
A SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290522
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
122 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY TODAY...THEN MUCH LESS HUMID LATER TOMORROW INTO
LATE WEEK BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CONTINUED ON THE HUMID SIDE TODAY WITH DEW POINTS MAINLY IN THE
60S. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO FALL AS
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO FLATTEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. HIGHS
STILL NEAR 90 MOST LOCATIONS. BY LATE TODAY APPROACHING FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY BE ABLE TO POPS A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND NW PA...WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH CONTINUED
CHANCE POPS. OVERNIGHT TIMING AND A FAIRLY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL
KEEP ONLY CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH FROPA. LOWER DEW
POINTS WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY
AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DIMINISH NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS INTO THE EASTERN STATES NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP LOWER DEW POINTS WITH NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES INTO LATE WEEK. ADDED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY
AS MODELS LOOK TO BRING A SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY AND SEASONALLY WARM SUNDAY. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOLLOWED CLOSE
TO THE ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT INDIVIDUAL MODEL
DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OTHER THAN PATCHY MVFR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WITH
DIURNAL CU ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS SURFACE RIDING SLIDES EAST.

AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING INCREASING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO PORTS W OF THE PA BORDER BY THIS
EVENING...SO INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION AT ZZV. HOW LONG PRECIP
CONTINUES ALONG THE FRONT IS IN QUESTION AS IT MOVES INTO PA LATER
IN THE EVENING...SO MAINTAINED DRY TAFS FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
A SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPHI 290515
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
115 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY GIVING WAY TO A
WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT MAY CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A
BRIEF SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE. AFTER THE RESPITE OF HIGH PRESSURE A
STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE WEAK BOUNDARY HAS TEMPORARILY WASHED OUT AS LESS DEFINED AND
NORTHWARD TO NEAR I-78 EARLY THIS MORNING. A LITTLE FOG WILL FORM
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS BUT NOT AS EXTENSIVE AS SEEN IN YDYS 9Z-
10Z OBS. THE AREAS WHERE IT RAINED LATE YDY MAY BE MORE PREDISPOSED
TO FOG FORMATION.

AFTER SUNRISE...THE BOUNDARY DRYING BECOMES EVIDENT BY FORENOON
WITH HIGHEST DEWPOINTS AND MLCAPE THIS AFTN (400J) CONFINED TO
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR DELMARVA FCST AREA WHERE AM CARRYING A
SLIGHT CHC FOR A THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN. PWAT INCREASES TO
1.7 INCHES THERE LATE TODAY.

ELSEWHERE...HOT HOT HOT AND USED THE GFS MAVMOS STRAIGHT UP. SEA
BREEZES WILL EVENTUALLY MITIGATE SOME OF THE PURE HEAT IN DE AND
NJ BUT THIS WILL BE A TOASTY DAY WITH 18C AT 850 AND NEAR RECORD
IN SOME PLACES. PLS SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR THE VULNERABLE
RECORDS.

MAX HI TODAY 98-99F...BASICALLY JUST BELOW URBAN CORRIDOR CRITERIA
OF 100.

SW WINDS THIS AFTN MAY GUST 15 MPH IN A FEW SPOTS WITH SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTS BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM.

CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ANY SHOWERS ON THE DELMARVA SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 00Z.

THEREAFTER...SLY FLOW AND MORE HUMID WITH PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS
FORMING. PWAT INCREASES TO 1.9 INCHES BY MORNING ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR. MODELS HAVE A WEAK IB THRUST ACROSS DE AND S NJ
OVERNIGHT WHERE SCT OR ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS MIGHT
DEVELOP.

TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND USED A BLEND OF 00Z/29 NAM/GFS MOS
WITH A FAVORING OF THE WARMER AVBL GUIDANCE.

CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE EXCEPT BELOW AVG ON CONVECTION FORMING
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SOUTHEAST RIDGING GIVING WAY TO A DEVELOPING
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS BY THE WEEKEND. A
FEW IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NEXT
WEEK PROVIDING CHANCES FOR MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING COLD
FRONT MAY BRING IN MORE CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ADVECTING IN ALOFT TO SPARK SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER DURING THE MORNING HOURS, MOSTLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST, TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM REALLY PEAKING
AS HIGH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT, THOUGH LOW-90S IS NOTHING TO SNEEZE
AT. THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCED VERTICAL MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON
WHICH SHOULD KEEP DEWPOINTS FROM STAYING IN THE LOW-70S, SO
EXPECTING THEM TO MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER-60S...SHOULD KEEP HEAT
INDEX VALUES JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT STILL HAVE SOME TIME
FOR FURTHER ASSESSMENT. BESIDES THE HEAT, THE APPROACH OF THE COLD
FRONT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, WILL TRIGGER MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY IS PREVALENT BUT SHEAR IS ON THE
WEAKER SIDE AS OF NOW BUT DEPENDING ON THE SHEAR AXIS ORIENTATION
TO THE STORMS, WE COULD SEE CELL MERGER OCCUR FORMING A BROKEN
LINE OF STORMS WITH STRONGER WINDS THE MAIN ISSUE. PWATS APPROACH
AND COULD SURPASS 2" SO HEAVY EFFICIENT RAINERS IS ALSO LIKELY
WITH POOR DRAINAGE AND SPOTTY FLASH FLOOD ISSUES POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY - SUNDAY...AS MID-LEVEL TROUGHING BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN BY THE
WEEKEND, THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT BECOMES MORE PARALLEL TO THE UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW...IT LOOKS TO STALL OFFSHORE. IT BEGINS TO SLOW ITS
DEPARTURE EARLY ON FRIDAY SO THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE DRYING OUT. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM BUT THE FRONT SHOULD BE ABLE TO EAT UP THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS AS THE AIRMASS DRIES OUT A BIT. WE LOOK TO BE ON
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGHING SO MOST OF THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY
STAYS TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING US MOSTLY DRY...COULD
BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN DELMARVA CLOSER TO THE
STALLED BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL STILL
REMAIN 90+ DEGREES.

MONDAY -  TUESDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH CLOSER TO
THE REGION BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE 90+ DEGREES WITH A MOISTENING AIRMASS.
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR FOG IN THE 6Z-12Z TIME FRAME.
LIGHT MOSTLY SW WIND.

AFTER 12Z...VFR WITH CLOUDS AOA 6000 FT THIS AFTN. ISOLATED TSTMS
POSSIBLE VCNTY KGED AND KESN MID OR LATE THIS AFTN. SW WIND GUST
NEAR 15 KT THIS AFTN EXCEPT SOUTH SOUTHEAST SEABREEZES DEVELOPING
COASTAL LOCATIONS 16Z-18Z.

TONIGHT....VFR TO START THEN PATCHY MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN FOG/STRATUS/
HAZE LATE, ESPECIALLY NW NJ AND PTNS E PA.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...EARLY MORNING FOG/HAZE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...THEN
SCT AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.

FRIDAY - SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT. A DISTANT OCEAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND IS PRODUCING A LITTLE MORE SWELL THAN
ANTICIPATED. STILL ATLC SEAS AOB 4 FT THROUGH TONIGHT. SW WINDS
LESS 18KT EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING SSE THIS AFTN AND SLY
TONIGHT... ALL GUST SPEEDS AOB 22 KT.


OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY - SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE ON THURSDAY WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COAST TODAY DUE TO A
LONG PERIOD SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL. THE WAVE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO
BE AROUND 10 SECONDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KACY RAINFALL 6.58 RANKED 14TH WETTEST NOW WITH THE POR DATING
BACK THROUGH 1874. WETTEST 13.09 IN 1959.

KABE WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE NEAR RECORD WARMTH THIS AFTERNOON-JULY
29. THE RECORD THERE IS 96 SET IN 1954. RIGHT NOW WE`RE FCSTG 95.

KRDG AND KMPO MAY BE THE OTHER LOCATIONS WITHIN 2F OF THE RECORD
FOR THIS DATE

KRDG - 97 SET BACK IN 2002.
KMPO - 90 SET BACK IN 1949.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...DRAG/KLEIN 115A
SHORT TERM...DRAG/IOVINO 115A
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/IOVINO/HEAVENER/KLEIN 115A
MARINE...DRAG/IOVINO/HEAVENER 115A
RIP CURRENTS...115A
CLIMATE...115A



000
FXUS61 KPHI 290515
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
115 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY GIVING WAY TO A
WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT MAY CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A
BRIEF SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE. AFTER THE RESPITE OF HIGH PRESSURE A
STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE WEAK BOUNDARY HAS TEMPORARILY WASHED OUT AS LESS DEFINED AND
NORTHWARD TO NEAR I-78 EARLY THIS MORNING. A LITTLE FOG WILL FORM
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS BUT NOT AS EXTENSIVE AS SEEN IN YDYS 9Z-
10Z OBS. THE AREAS WHERE IT RAINED LATE YDY MAY BE MORE PREDISPOSED
TO FOG FORMATION.

AFTER SUNRISE...THE BOUNDARY DRYING BECOMES EVIDENT BY FORENOON
WITH HIGHEST DEWPOINTS AND MLCAPE THIS AFTN (400J) CONFINED TO
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR DELMARVA FCST AREA WHERE AM CARRYING A
SLIGHT CHC FOR A THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN. PWAT INCREASES TO
1.7 INCHES THERE LATE TODAY.

ELSEWHERE...HOT HOT HOT AND USED THE GFS MAVMOS STRAIGHT UP. SEA
BREEZES WILL EVENTUALLY MITIGATE SOME OF THE PURE HEAT IN DE AND
NJ BUT THIS WILL BE A TOASTY DAY WITH 18C AT 850 AND NEAR RECORD
IN SOME PLACES. PLS SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR THE VULNERABLE
RECORDS.

MAX HI TODAY 98-99F...BASICALLY JUST BELOW URBAN CORRIDOR CRITERIA
OF 100.

SW WINDS THIS AFTN MAY GUST 15 MPH IN A FEW SPOTS WITH SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTS BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM.

CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ANY SHOWERS ON THE DELMARVA SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 00Z.

THEREAFTER...SLY FLOW AND MORE HUMID WITH PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS
FORMING. PWAT INCREASES TO 1.9 INCHES BY MORNING ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR. MODELS HAVE A WEAK IB THRUST ACROSS DE AND S NJ
OVERNIGHT WHERE SCT OR ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS MIGHT
DEVELOP.

TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND USED A BLEND OF 00Z/29 NAM/GFS MOS
WITH A FAVORING OF THE WARMER AVBL GUIDANCE.

CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE EXCEPT BELOW AVG ON CONVECTION FORMING
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SOUTHEAST RIDGING GIVING WAY TO A DEVELOPING
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS BY THE WEEKEND. A
FEW IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NEXT
WEEK PROVIDING CHANCES FOR MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING COLD
FRONT MAY BRING IN MORE CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ADVECTING IN ALOFT TO SPARK SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER DURING THE MORNING HOURS, MOSTLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST, TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM REALLY PEAKING
AS HIGH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT, THOUGH LOW-90S IS NOTHING TO SNEEZE
AT. THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCED VERTICAL MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON
WHICH SHOULD KEEP DEWPOINTS FROM STAYING IN THE LOW-70S, SO
EXPECTING THEM TO MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER-60S...SHOULD KEEP HEAT
INDEX VALUES JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT STILL HAVE SOME TIME
FOR FURTHER ASSESSMENT. BESIDES THE HEAT, THE APPROACH OF THE COLD
FRONT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, WILL TRIGGER MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY IS PREVALENT BUT SHEAR IS ON THE
WEAKER SIDE AS OF NOW BUT DEPENDING ON THE SHEAR AXIS ORIENTATION
TO THE STORMS, WE COULD SEE CELL MERGER OCCUR FORMING A BROKEN
LINE OF STORMS WITH STRONGER WINDS THE MAIN ISSUE. PWATS APPROACH
AND COULD SURPASS 2" SO HEAVY EFFICIENT RAINERS IS ALSO LIKELY
WITH POOR DRAINAGE AND SPOTTY FLASH FLOOD ISSUES POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY - SUNDAY...AS MID-LEVEL TROUGHING BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN BY THE
WEEKEND, THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT BECOMES MORE PARALLEL TO THE UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW...IT LOOKS TO STALL OFFSHORE. IT BEGINS TO SLOW ITS
DEPARTURE EARLY ON FRIDAY SO THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE DRYING OUT. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM BUT THE FRONT SHOULD BE ABLE TO EAT UP THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS AS THE AIRMASS DRIES OUT A BIT. WE LOOK TO BE ON
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGHING SO MOST OF THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY
STAYS TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING US MOSTLY DRY...COULD
BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN DELMARVA CLOSER TO THE
STALLED BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL STILL
REMAIN 90+ DEGREES.

MONDAY -  TUESDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH CLOSER TO
THE REGION BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE 90+ DEGREES WITH A MOISTENING AIRMASS.
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR FOG IN THE 6Z-12Z TIME FRAME.
LIGHT MOSTLY SW WIND.

AFTER 12Z...VFR WITH CLOUDS AOA 6000 FT THIS AFTN. ISOLATED TSTMS
POSSIBLE VCNTY KGED AND KESN MID OR LATE THIS AFTN. SW WIND GUST
NEAR 15 KT THIS AFTN EXCEPT SOUTH SOUTHEAST SEABREEZES DEVELOPING
COASTAL LOCATIONS 16Z-18Z.

TONIGHT....VFR TO START THEN PATCHY MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN FOG/STRATUS/
HAZE LATE, ESPECIALLY NW NJ AND PTNS E PA.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...EARLY MORNING FOG/HAZE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...THEN
SCT AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.

FRIDAY - SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT. A DISTANT OCEAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND IS PRODUCING A LITTLE MORE SWELL THAN
ANTICIPATED. STILL ATLC SEAS AOB 4 FT THROUGH TONIGHT. SW WINDS
LESS 18KT EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING SSE THIS AFTN AND SLY
TONIGHT... ALL GUST SPEEDS AOB 22 KT.


OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY - SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE ON THURSDAY WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COAST TODAY DUE TO A
LONG PERIOD SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL. THE WAVE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO
BE AROUND 10 SECONDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KACY RAINFALL 6.58 RANKED 14TH WETTEST NOW WITH THE POR DATING
BACK THROUGH 1874. WETTEST 13.09 IN 1959.

KABE WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE NEAR RECORD WARMTH THIS AFTERNOON-JULY
29. THE RECORD THERE IS 96 SET IN 1954. RIGHT NOW WE`RE FCSTG 95.

KRDG AND KMPO MAY BE THE OTHER LOCATIONS WITHIN 2F OF THE RECORD
FOR THIS DATE

KRDG - 97 SET BACK IN 2002.
KMPO - 90 SET BACK IN 1949.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...DRAG/KLEIN 115A
SHORT TERM...DRAG/IOVINO 115A
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/IOVINO/HEAVENER/KLEIN 115A
MARINE...DRAG/IOVINO/HEAVENER 115A
RIP CURRENTS...115A
CLIMATE...115A



000
FXUS61 KPHI 290515
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
115 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY GIVING WAY TO A
WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT MAY CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A
BRIEF SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE. AFTER THE RESPITE OF HIGH PRESSURE A
STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE WEAK BOUNDARY HAS TEMPORARILY WASHED OUT AS LESS DEFINED AND
NORTHWARD TO NEAR I-78 EARLY THIS MORNING. A LITTLE FOG WILL FORM
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS BUT NOT AS EXTENSIVE AS SEEN IN YDYS 9Z-
10Z OBS. THE AREAS WHERE IT RAINED LATE YDY MAY BE MORE PREDISPOSED
TO FOG FORMATION.

AFTER SUNRISE...THE BOUNDARY DRYING BECOMES EVIDENT BY FORENOON
WITH HIGHEST DEWPOINTS AND MLCAPE THIS AFTN (400J) CONFINED TO
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR DELMARVA FCST AREA WHERE AM CARRYING A
SLIGHT CHC FOR A THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN. PWAT INCREASES TO
1.7 INCHES THERE LATE TODAY.

ELSEWHERE...HOT HOT HOT AND USED THE GFS MAVMOS STRAIGHT UP. SEA
BREEZES WILL EVENTUALLY MITIGATE SOME OF THE PURE HEAT IN DE AND
NJ BUT THIS WILL BE A TOASTY DAY WITH 18C AT 850 AND NEAR RECORD
IN SOME PLACES. PLS SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR THE VULNERABLE
RECORDS.

MAX HI TODAY 98-99F...BASICALLY JUST BELOW URBAN CORRIDOR CRITERIA
OF 100.

SW WINDS THIS AFTN MAY GUST 15 MPH IN A FEW SPOTS WITH SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTS BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM.

CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ANY SHOWERS ON THE DELMARVA SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 00Z.

THEREAFTER...SLY FLOW AND MORE HUMID WITH PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS
FORMING. PWAT INCREASES TO 1.9 INCHES BY MORNING ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR. MODELS HAVE A WEAK IB THRUST ACROSS DE AND S NJ
OVERNIGHT WHERE SCT OR ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS MIGHT
DEVELOP.

TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND USED A BLEND OF 00Z/29 NAM/GFS MOS
WITH A FAVORING OF THE WARMER AVBL GUIDANCE.

CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE EXCEPT BELOW AVG ON CONVECTION FORMING
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SOUTHEAST RIDGING GIVING WAY TO A DEVELOPING
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS BY THE WEEKEND. A
FEW IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NEXT
WEEK PROVIDING CHANCES FOR MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING COLD
FRONT MAY BRING IN MORE CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ADVECTING IN ALOFT TO SPARK SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER DURING THE MORNING HOURS, MOSTLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST, TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM REALLY PEAKING
AS HIGH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT, THOUGH LOW-90S IS NOTHING TO SNEEZE
AT. THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCED VERTICAL MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON
WHICH SHOULD KEEP DEWPOINTS FROM STAYING IN THE LOW-70S, SO
EXPECTING THEM TO MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER-60S...SHOULD KEEP HEAT
INDEX VALUES JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT STILL HAVE SOME TIME
FOR FURTHER ASSESSMENT. BESIDES THE HEAT, THE APPROACH OF THE COLD
FRONT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, WILL TRIGGER MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY IS PREVALENT BUT SHEAR IS ON THE
WEAKER SIDE AS OF NOW BUT DEPENDING ON THE SHEAR AXIS ORIENTATION
TO THE STORMS, WE COULD SEE CELL MERGER OCCUR FORMING A BROKEN
LINE OF STORMS WITH STRONGER WINDS THE MAIN ISSUE. PWATS APPROACH
AND COULD SURPASS 2" SO HEAVY EFFICIENT RAINERS IS ALSO LIKELY
WITH POOR DRAINAGE AND SPOTTY FLASH FLOOD ISSUES POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY - SUNDAY...AS MID-LEVEL TROUGHING BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN BY THE
WEEKEND, THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT BECOMES MORE PARALLEL TO THE UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW...IT LOOKS TO STALL OFFSHORE. IT BEGINS TO SLOW ITS
DEPARTURE EARLY ON FRIDAY SO THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE DRYING OUT. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM BUT THE FRONT SHOULD BE ABLE TO EAT UP THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS AS THE AIRMASS DRIES OUT A BIT. WE LOOK TO BE ON
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGHING SO MOST OF THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY
STAYS TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING US MOSTLY DRY...COULD
BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN DELMARVA CLOSER TO THE
STALLED BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL STILL
REMAIN 90+ DEGREES.

MONDAY -  TUESDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH CLOSER TO
THE REGION BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE 90+ DEGREES WITH A MOISTENING AIRMASS.
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR FOG IN THE 6Z-12Z TIME FRAME.
LIGHT MOSTLY SW WIND.

AFTER 12Z...VFR WITH CLOUDS AOA 6000 FT THIS AFTN. ISOLATED TSTMS
POSSIBLE VCNTY KGED AND KESN MID OR LATE THIS AFTN. SW WIND GUST
NEAR 15 KT THIS AFTN EXCEPT SOUTH SOUTHEAST SEABREEZES DEVELOPING
COASTAL LOCATIONS 16Z-18Z.

TONIGHT....VFR TO START THEN PATCHY MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN FOG/STRATUS/
HAZE LATE, ESPECIALLY NW NJ AND PTNS E PA.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...EARLY MORNING FOG/HAZE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...THEN
SCT AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.

FRIDAY - SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT. A DISTANT OCEAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND IS PRODUCING A LITTLE MORE SWELL THAN
ANTICIPATED. STILL ATLC SEAS AOB 4 FT THROUGH TONIGHT. SW WINDS
LESS 18KT EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING SSE THIS AFTN AND SLY
TONIGHT... ALL GUST SPEEDS AOB 22 KT.


OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY - SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE ON THURSDAY WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COAST TODAY DUE TO A
LONG PERIOD SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL. THE WAVE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO
BE AROUND 10 SECONDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KACY RAINFALL 6.58 RANKED 14TH WETTEST NOW WITH THE POR DATING
BACK THROUGH 1874. WETTEST 13.09 IN 1959.

KABE WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE NEAR RECORD WARMTH THIS AFTERNOON-JULY
29. THE RECORD THERE IS 96 SET IN 1954. RIGHT NOW WE`RE FCSTG 95.

KRDG AND KMPO MAY BE THE OTHER LOCATIONS WITHIN 2F OF THE RECORD
FOR THIS DATE

KRDG - 97 SET BACK IN 2002.
KMPO - 90 SET BACK IN 1949.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...DRAG/KLEIN 115A
SHORT TERM...DRAG/IOVINO 115A
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/IOVINO/HEAVENER/KLEIN 115A
MARINE...DRAG/IOVINO/HEAVENER 115A
RIP CURRENTS...115A
CLIMATE...115A



000
FXUS61 KPHI 290515
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
115 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY GIVING WAY TO A
WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT MAY CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A
BRIEF SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE. AFTER THE RESPITE OF HIGH PRESSURE A
STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE WEAK BOUNDARY HAS TEMPORARILY WASHED OUT AS LESS DEFINED AND
NORTHWARD TO NEAR I-78 EARLY THIS MORNING. A LITTLE FOG WILL FORM
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS BUT NOT AS EXTENSIVE AS SEEN IN YDYS 9Z-
10Z OBS. THE AREAS WHERE IT RAINED LATE YDY MAY BE MORE PREDISPOSED
TO FOG FORMATION.

AFTER SUNRISE...THE BOUNDARY DRYING BECOMES EVIDENT BY FORENOON
WITH HIGHEST DEWPOINTS AND MLCAPE THIS AFTN (400J) CONFINED TO
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR DELMARVA FCST AREA WHERE AM CARRYING A
SLIGHT CHC FOR A THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN. PWAT INCREASES TO
1.7 INCHES THERE LATE TODAY.

ELSEWHERE...HOT HOT HOT AND USED THE GFS MAVMOS STRAIGHT UP. SEA
BREEZES WILL EVENTUALLY MITIGATE SOME OF THE PURE HEAT IN DE AND
NJ BUT THIS WILL BE A TOASTY DAY WITH 18C AT 850 AND NEAR RECORD
IN SOME PLACES. PLS SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR THE VULNERABLE
RECORDS.

MAX HI TODAY 98-99F...BASICALLY JUST BELOW URBAN CORRIDOR CRITERIA
OF 100.

SW WINDS THIS AFTN MAY GUST 15 MPH IN A FEW SPOTS WITH SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTS BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM.

CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ANY SHOWERS ON THE DELMARVA SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 00Z.

THEREAFTER...SLY FLOW AND MORE HUMID WITH PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS
FORMING. PWAT INCREASES TO 1.9 INCHES BY MORNING ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR. MODELS HAVE A WEAK IB THRUST ACROSS DE AND S NJ
OVERNIGHT WHERE SCT OR ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS MIGHT
DEVELOP.

TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND USED A BLEND OF 00Z/29 NAM/GFS MOS
WITH A FAVORING OF THE WARMER AVBL GUIDANCE.

CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE EXCEPT BELOW AVG ON CONVECTION FORMING
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SOUTHEAST RIDGING GIVING WAY TO A DEVELOPING
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS BY THE WEEKEND. A
FEW IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NEXT
WEEK PROVIDING CHANCES FOR MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING COLD
FRONT MAY BRING IN MORE CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ADVECTING IN ALOFT TO SPARK SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER DURING THE MORNING HOURS, MOSTLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST, TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM REALLY PEAKING
AS HIGH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT, THOUGH LOW-90S IS NOTHING TO SNEEZE
AT. THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCED VERTICAL MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON
WHICH SHOULD KEEP DEWPOINTS FROM STAYING IN THE LOW-70S, SO
EXPECTING THEM TO MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER-60S...SHOULD KEEP HEAT
INDEX VALUES JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT STILL HAVE SOME TIME
FOR FURTHER ASSESSMENT. BESIDES THE HEAT, THE APPROACH OF THE COLD
FRONT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, WILL TRIGGER MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY IS PREVALENT BUT SHEAR IS ON THE
WEAKER SIDE AS OF NOW BUT DEPENDING ON THE SHEAR AXIS ORIENTATION
TO THE STORMS, WE COULD SEE CELL MERGER OCCUR FORMING A BROKEN
LINE OF STORMS WITH STRONGER WINDS THE MAIN ISSUE. PWATS APPROACH
AND COULD SURPASS 2" SO HEAVY EFFICIENT RAINERS IS ALSO LIKELY
WITH POOR DRAINAGE AND SPOTTY FLASH FLOOD ISSUES POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY - SUNDAY...AS MID-LEVEL TROUGHING BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN BY THE
WEEKEND, THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT BECOMES MORE PARALLEL TO THE UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW...IT LOOKS TO STALL OFFSHORE. IT BEGINS TO SLOW ITS
DEPARTURE EARLY ON FRIDAY SO THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE DRYING OUT. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM BUT THE FRONT SHOULD BE ABLE TO EAT UP THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS AS THE AIRMASS DRIES OUT A BIT. WE LOOK TO BE ON
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGHING SO MOST OF THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY
STAYS TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING US MOSTLY DRY...COULD
BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN DELMARVA CLOSER TO THE
STALLED BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL STILL
REMAIN 90+ DEGREES.

MONDAY -  TUESDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH CLOSER TO
THE REGION BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE 90+ DEGREES WITH A MOISTENING AIRMASS.
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR FOG IN THE 6Z-12Z TIME FRAME.
LIGHT MOSTLY SW WIND.

AFTER 12Z...VFR WITH CLOUDS AOA 6000 FT THIS AFTN. ISOLATED TSTMS
POSSIBLE VCNTY KGED AND KESN MID OR LATE THIS AFTN. SW WIND GUST
NEAR 15 KT THIS AFTN EXCEPT SOUTH SOUTHEAST SEABREEZES DEVELOPING
COASTAL LOCATIONS 16Z-18Z.

TONIGHT....VFR TO START THEN PATCHY MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN FOG/STRATUS/
HAZE LATE, ESPECIALLY NW NJ AND PTNS E PA.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...EARLY MORNING FOG/HAZE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...THEN
SCT AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.

FRIDAY - SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT. A DISTANT OCEAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND IS PRODUCING A LITTLE MORE SWELL THAN
ANTICIPATED. STILL ATLC SEAS AOB 4 FT THROUGH TONIGHT. SW WINDS
LESS 18KT EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING SSE THIS AFTN AND SLY
TONIGHT... ALL GUST SPEEDS AOB 22 KT.


OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY - SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE ON THURSDAY WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COAST TODAY DUE TO A
LONG PERIOD SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL. THE WAVE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO
BE AROUND 10 SECONDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KACY RAINFALL 6.58 RANKED 14TH WETTEST NOW WITH THE POR DATING
BACK THROUGH 1874. WETTEST 13.09 IN 1959.

KABE WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE NEAR RECORD WARMTH THIS AFTERNOON-JULY
29. THE RECORD THERE IS 96 SET IN 1954. RIGHT NOW WE`RE FCSTG 95.

KRDG AND KMPO MAY BE THE OTHER LOCATIONS WITHIN 2F OF THE RECORD
FOR THIS DATE

KRDG - 97 SET BACK IN 2002.
KMPO - 90 SET BACK IN 1949.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...DRAG/KLEIN 115A
SHORT TERM...DRAG/IOVINO 115A
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/IOVINO/HEAVENER/KLEIN 115A
MARINE...DRAG/IOVINO/HEAVENER 115A
RIP CURRENTS...115A
CLIMATE...115A



000
FXUS61 KPHI 290515
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
115 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY GIVING WAY TO A
WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT MAY CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A
BRIEF SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE. AFTER THE RESPITE OF HIGH PRESSURE A
STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE WEAK BOUNDARY HAS TEMPORARILY WASHED OUT AS LESS DEFINED AND
NORTHWARD TO NEAR I-78 EARLY THIS MORNING. A LITTLE FOG WILL FORM
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS BUT NOT AS EXTENSIVE AS SEEN IN YDYS 9Z-
10Z OBS. THE AREAS WHERE IT RAINED LATE YDY MAY BE MORE PREDISPOSED
TO FOG FORMATION.

AFTER SUNRISE...THE BOUNDARY DRYING BECOMES EVIDENT BY FORENOON
WITH HIGHEST DEWPOINTS AND MLCAPE THIS AFTN (400J) CONFINED TO
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR DELMARVA FCST AREA WHERE AM CARRYING A
SLIGHT CHC FOR A THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN. PWAT INCREASES TO
1.7 INCHES THERE LATE TODAY.

ELSEWHERE...HOT HOT HOT AND USED THE GFS MAVMOS STRAIGHT UP. SEA
BREEZES WILL EVENTUALLY MITIGATE SOME OF THE PURE HEAT IN DE AND
NJ BUT THIS WILL BE A TOASTY DAY WITH 18C AT 850 AND NEAR RECORD
IN SOME PLACES. PLS SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR THE VULNERABLE
RECORDS.

MAX HI TODAY 98-99F...BASICALLY JUST BELOW URBAN CORRIDOR CRITERIA
OF 100.

SW WINDS THIS AFTN MAY GUST 15 MPH IN A FEW SPOTS WITH SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTS BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM.

CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ANY SHOWERS ON THE DELMARVA SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 00Z.

THEREAFTER...SLY FLOW AND MORE HUMID WITH PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS
FORMING. PWAT INCREASES TO 1.9 INCHES BY MORNING ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR. MODELS HAVE A WEAK IB THRUST ACROSS DE AND S NJ
OVERNIGHT WHERE SCT OR ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS MIGHT
DEVELOP.

TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND USED A BLEND OF 00Z/29 NAM/GFS MOS
WITH A FAVORING OF THE WARMER AVBL GUIDANCE.

CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE EXCEPT BELOW AVG ON CONVECTION FORMING
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SOUTHEAST RIDGING GIVING WAY TO A DEVELOPING
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS BY THE WEEKEND. A
FEW IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NEXT
WEEK PROVIDING CHANCES FOR MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING COLD
FRONT MAY BRING IN MORE CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ADVECTING IN ALOFT TO SPARK SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER DURING THE MORNING HOURS, MOSTLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST, TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM REALLY PEAKING
AS HIGH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT, THOUGH LOW-90S IS NOTHING TO SNEEZE
AT. THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCED VERTICAL MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON
WHICH SHOULD KEEP DEWPOINTS FROM STAYING IN THE LOW-70S, SO
EXPECTING THEM TO MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER-60S...SHOULD KEEP HEAT
INDEX VALUES JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT STILL HAVE SOME TIME
FOR FURTHER ASSESSMENT. BESIDES THE HEAT, THE APPROACH OF THE COLD
FRONT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, WILL TRIGGER MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY IS PREVALENT BUT SHEAR IS ON THE
WEAKER SIDE AS OF NOW BUT DEPENDING ON THE SHEAR AXIS ORIENTATION
TO THE STORMS, WE COULD SEE CELL MERGER OCCUR FORMING A BROKEN
LINE OF STORMS WITH STRONGER WINDS THE MAIN ISSUE. PWATS APPROACH
AND COULD SURPASS 2" SO HEAVY EFFICIENT RAINERS IS ALSO LIKELY
WITH POOR DRAINAGE AND SPOTTY FLASH FLOOD ISSUES POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY - SUNDAY...AS MID-LEVEL TROUGHING BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN BY THE
WEEKEND, THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT BECOMES MORE PARALLEL TO THE UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW...IT LOOKS TO STALL OFFSHORE. IT BEGINS TO SLOW ITS
DEPARTURE EARLY ON FRIDAY SO THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE DRYING OUT. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM BUT THE FRONT SHOULD BE ABLE TO EAT UP THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS AS THE AIRMASS DRIES OUT A BIT. WE LOOK TO BE ON
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGHING SO MOST OF THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY
STAYS TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING US MOSTLY DRY...COULD
BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN DELMARVA CLOSER TO THE
STALLED BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL STILL
REMAIN 90+ DEGREES.

MONDAY -  TUESDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH CLOSER TO
THE REGION BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE 90+ DEGREES WITH A MOISTENING AIRMASS.
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR FOG IN THE 6Z-12Z TIME FRAME.
LIGHT MOSTLY SW WIND.

AFTER 12Z...VFR WITH CLOUDS AOA 6000 FT THIS AFTN. ISOLATED TSTMS
POSSIBLE VCNTY KGED AND KESN MID OR LATE THIS AFTN. SW WIND GUST
NEAR 15 KT THIS AFTN EXCEPT SOUTH SOUTHEAST SEABREEZES DEVELOPING
COASTAL LOCATIONS 16Z-18Z.

TONIGHT....VFR TO START THEN PATCHY MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN FOG/STRATUS/
HAZE LATE, ESPECIALLY NW NJ AND PTNS E PA.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...EARLY MORNING FOG/HAZE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...THEN
SCT AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.

FRIDAY - SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT. A DISTANT OCEAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND IS PRODUCING A LITTLE MORE SWELL THAN
ANTICIPATED. STILL ATLC SEAS AOB 4 FT THROUGH TONIGHT. SW WINDS
LESS 18KT EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING SSE THIS AFTN AND SLY
TONIGHT... ALL GUST SPEEDS AOB 22 KT.


OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY - SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE ON THURSDAY WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COAST TODAY DUE TO A
LONG PERIOD SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL. THE WAVE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO
BE AROUND 10 SECONDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KACY RAINFALL 6.58 RANKED 14TH WETTEST NOW WITH THE POR DATING
BACK THROUGH 1874. WETTEST 13.09 IN 1959.

KABE WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE NEAR RECORD WARMTH THIS AFTERNOON-JULY
29. THE RECORD THERE IS 96 SET IN 1954. RIGHT NOW WE`RE FCSTG 95.

KRDG AND KMPO MAY BE THE OTHER LOCATIONS WITHIN 2F OF THE RECORD
FOR THIS DATE

KRDG - 97 SET BACK IN 2002.
KMPO - 90 SET BACK IN 1949.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...DRAG/KLEIN 115A
SHORT TERM...DRAG/IOVINO 115A
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/IOVINO/HEAVENER/KLEIN 115A
MARINE...DRAG/IOVINO/HEAVENER 115A
RIP CURRENTS...115A
CLIMATE...115A



000
FXUS61 KPHI 290515
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
115 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY GIVING WAY TO A
WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT MAY CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A
BRIEF SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE. AFTER THE RESPITE OF HIGH PRESSURE A
STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE WEAK BOUNDARY HAS TEMPORARILY WASHED OUT AS LESS DEFINED AND
NORTHWARD TO NEAR I-78 EARLY THIS MORNING. A LITTLE FOG WILL FORM
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS BUT NOT AS EXTENSIVE AS SEEN IN YDYS 9Z-
10Z OBS. THE AREAS WHERE IT RAINED LATE YDY MAY BE MORE PREDISPOSED
TO FOG FORMATION.

AFTER SUNRISE...THE BOUNDARY DRYING BECOMES EVIDENT BY FORENOON
WITH HIGHEST DEWPOINTS AND MLCAPE THIS AFTN (400J) CONFINED TO
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR DELMARVA FCST AREA WHERE AM CARRYING A
SLIGHT CHC FOR A THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN. PWAT INCREASES TO
1.7 INCHES THERE LATE TODAY.

ELSEWHERE...HOT HOT HOT AND USED THE GFS MAVMOS STRAIGHT UP. SEA
BREEZES WILL EVENTUALLY MITIGATE SOME OF THE PURE HEAT IN DE AND
NJ BUT THIS WILL BE A TOASTY DAY WITH 18C AT 850 AND NEAR RECORD
IN SOME PLACES. PLS SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR THE VULNERABLE
RECORDS.

MAX HI TODAY 98-99F...BASICALLY JUST BELOW URBAN CORRIDOR CRITERIA
OF 100.

SW WINDS THIS AFTN MAY GUST 15 MPH IN A FEW SPOTS WITH SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTS BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM.

CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ANY SHOWERS ON THE DELMARVA SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 00Z.

THEREAFTER...SLY FLOW AND MORE HUMID WITH PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS
FORMING. PWAT INCREASES TO 1.9 INCHES BY MORNING ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR. MODELS HAVE A WEAK IB THRUST ACROSS DE AND S NJ
OVERNIGHT WHERE SCT OR ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS MIGHT
DEVELOP.

TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND USED A BLEND OF 00Z/29 NAM/GFS MOS
WITH A FAVORING OF THE WARMER AVBL GUIDANCE.

CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE EXCEPT BELOW AVG ON CONVECTION FORMING
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SOUTHEAST RIDGING GIVING WAY TO A DEVELOPING
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS BY THE WEEKEND. A
FEW IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NEXT
WEEK PROVIDING CHANCES FOR MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING COLD
FRONT MAY BRING IN MORE CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ADVECTING IN ALOFT TO SPARK SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER DURING THE MORNING HOURS, MOSTLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST, TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM REALLY PEAKING
AS HIGH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT, THOUGH LOW-90S IS NOTHING TO SNEEZE
AT. THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCED VERTICAL MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON
WHICH SHOULD KEEP DEWPOINTS FROM STAYING IN THE LOW-70S, SO
EXPECTING THEM TO MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER-60S...SHOULD KEEP HEAT
INDEX VALUES JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT STILL HAVE SOME TIME
FOR FURTHER ASSESSMENT. BESIDES THE HEAT, THE APPROACH OF THE COLD
FRONT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, WILL TRIGGER MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY IS PREVALENT BUT SHEAR IS ON THE
WEAKER SIDE AS OF NOW BUT DEPENDING ON THE SHEAR AXIS ORIENTATION
TO THE STORMS, WE COULD SEE CELL MERGER OCCUR FORMING A BROKEN
LINE OF STORMS WITH STRONGER WINDS THE MAIN ISSUE. PWATS APPROACH
AND COULD SURPASS 2" SO HEAVY EFFICIENT RAINERS IS ALSO LIKELY
WITH POOR DRAINAGE AND SPOTTY FLASH FLOOD ISSUES POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY - SUNDAY...AS MID-LEVEL TROUGHING BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN BY THE
WEEKEND, THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT BECOMES MORE PARALLEL TO THE UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW...IT LOOKS TO STALL OFFSHORE. IT BEGINS TO SLOW ITS
DEPARTURE EARLY ON FRIDAY SO THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE DRYING OUT. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM BUT THE FRONT SHOULD BE ABLE TO EAT UP THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS AS THE AIRMASS DRIES OUT A BIT. WE LOOK TO BE ON
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGHING SO MOST OF THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY
STAYS TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING US MOSTLY DRY...COULD
BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN DELMARVA CLOSER TO THE
STALLED BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL STILL
REMAIN 90+ DEGREES.

MONDAY -  TUESDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH CLOSER TO
THE REGION BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE 90+ DEGREES WITH A MOISTENING AIRMASS.
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR FOG IN THE 6Z-12Z TIME FRAME.
LIGHT MOSTLY SW WIND.

AFTER 12Z...VFR WITH CLOUDS AOA 6000 FT THIS AFTN. ISOLATED TSTMS
POSSIBLE VCNTY KGED AND KESN MID OR LATE THIS AFTN. SW WIND GUST
NEAR 15 KT THIS AFTN EXCEPT SOUTH SOUTHEAST SEABREEZES DEVELOPING
COASTAL LOCATIONS 16Z-18Z.

TONIGHT....VFR TO START THEN PATCHY MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN FOG/STRATUS/
HAZE LATE, ESPECIALLY NW NJ AND PTNS E PA.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...EARLY MORNING FOG/HAZE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...THEN
SCT AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.

FRIDAY - SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT. A DISTANT OCEAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND IS PRODUCING A LITTLE MORE SWELL THAN
ANTICIPATED. STILL ATLC SEAS AOB 4 FT THROUGH TONIGHT. SW WINDS
LESS 18KT EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING SSE THIS AFTN AND SLY
TONIGHT... ALL GUST SPEEDS AOB 22 KT.


OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY - SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE ON THURSDAY WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COAST TODAY DUE TO A
LONG PERIOD SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL. THE WAVE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO
BE AROUND 10 SECONDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KACY RAINFALL 6.58 RANKED 14TH WETTEST NOW WITH THE POR DATING
BACK THROUGH 1874. WETTEST 13.09 IN 1959.

KABE WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE NEAR RECORD WARMTH THIS AFTERNOON-JULY
29. THE RECORD THERE IS 96 SET IN 1954. RIGHT NOW WE`RE FCSTG 95.

KRDG AND KMPO MAY BE THE OTHER LOCATIONS WITHIN 2F OF THE RECORD
FOR THIS DATE

KRDG - 97 SET BACK IN 2002.
KMPO - 90 SET BACK IN 1949.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...DRAG/KLEIN 115A
SHORT TERM...DRAG/IOVINO 115A
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/IOVINO/HEAVENER/KLEIN 115A
MARINE...DRAG/IOVINO/HEAVENER 115A
RIP CURRENTS...115A
CLIMATE...115A



000
FXUS61 KPHI 290515
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
115 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY GIVING WAY TO A
WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT MAY CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A
BRIEF SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE. AFTER THE RESPITE OF HIGH PRESSURE A
STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE WEAK BOUNDARY HAS TEMPORARILY WASHED OUT AS LESS DEFINED AND
NORTHWARD TO NEAR I-78 EARLY THIS MORNING. A LITTLE FOG WILL FORM
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS BUT NOT AS EXTENSIVE AS SEEN IN YDYS 9Z-
10Z OBS. THE AREAS WHERE IT RAINED LATE YDY MAY BE MORE PREDISPOSED
TO FOG FORMATION.

AFTER SUNRISE...THE BOUNDARY DRYING BECOMES EVIDENT BY FORENOON
WITH HIGHEST DEWPOINTS AND MLCAPE THIS AFTN (400J) CONFINED TO
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR DELMARVA FCST AREA WHERE AM CARRYING A
SLIGHT CHC FOR A THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN. PWAT INCREASES TO
1.7 INCHES THERE LATE TODAY.

ELSEWHERE...HOT HOT HOT AND USED THE GFS MAVMOS STRAIGHT UP. SEA
BREEZES WILL EVENTUALLY MITIGATE SOME OF THE PURE HEAT IN DE AND
NJ BUT THIS WILL BE A TOASTY DAY WITH 18C AT 850 AND NEAR RECORD
IN SOME PLACES. PLS SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR THE VULNERABLE
RECORDS.

MAX HI TODAY 98-99F...BASICALLY JUST BELOW URBAN CORRIDOR CRITERIA
OF 100.

SW WINDS THIS AFTN MAY GUST 15 MPH IN A FEW SPOTS WITH SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTS BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM.

CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ANY SHOWERS ON THE DELMARVA SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 00Z.

THEREAFTER...SLY FLOW AND MORE HUMID WITH PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS
FORMING. PWAT INCREASES TO 1.9 INCHES BY MORNING ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR. MODELS HAVE A WEAK IB THRUST ACROSS DE AND S NJ
OVERNIGHT WHERE SCT OR ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS MIGHT
DEVELOP.

TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND USED A BLEND OF 00Z/29 NAM/GFS MOS
WITH A FAVORING OF THE WARMER AVBL GUIDANCE.

CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE EXCEPT BELOW AVG ON CONVECTION FORMING
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SOUTHEAST RIDGING GIVING WAY TO A DEVELOPING
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS BY THE WEEKEND. A
FEW IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NEXT
WEEK PROVIDING CHANCES FOR MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING COLD
FRONT MAY BRING IN MORE CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ADVECTING IN ALOFT TO SPARK SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER DURING THE MORNING HOURS, MOSTLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST, TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM REALLY PEAKING
AS HIGH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT, THOUGH LOW-90S IS NOTHING TO SNEEZE
AT. THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCED VERTICAL MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON
WHICH SHOULD KEEP DEWPOINTS FROM STAYING IN THE LOW-70S, SO
EXPECTING THEM TO MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER-60S...SHOULD KEEP HEAT
INDEX VALUES JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT STILL HAVE SOME TIME
FOR FURTHER ASSESSMENT. BESIDES THE HEAT, THE APPROACH OF THE COLD
FRONT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, WILL TRIGGER MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY IS PREVALENT BUT SHEAR IS ON THE
WEAKER SIDE AS OF NOW BUT DEPENDING ON THE SHEAR AXIS ORIENTATION
TO THE STORMS, WE COULD SEE CELL MERGER OCCUR FORMING A BROKEN
LINE OF STORMS WITH STRONGER WINDS THE MAIN ISSUE. PWATS APPROACH
AND COULD SURPASS 2" SO HEAVY EFFICIENT RAINERS IS ALSO LIKELY
WITH POOR DRAINAGE AND SPOTTY FLASH FLOOD ISSUES POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY - SUNDAY...AS MID-LEVEL TROUGHING BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN BY THE
WEEKEND, THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT BECOMES MORE PARALLEL TO THE UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW...IT LOOKS TO STALL OFFSHORE. IT BEGINS TO SLOW ITS
DEPARTURE EARLY ON FRIDAY SO THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE DRYING OUT. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM BUT THE FRONT SHOULD BE ABLE TO EAT UP THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS AS THE AIRMASS DRIES OUT A BIT. WE LOOK TO BE ON
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGHING SO MOST OF THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY
STAYS TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING US MOSTLY DRY...COULD
BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN DELMARVA CLOSER TO THE
STALLED BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL STILL
REMAIN 90+ DEGREES.

MONDAY -  TUESDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH CLOSER TO
THE REGION BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE 90+ DEGREES WITH A MOISTENING AIRMASS.
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR FOG IN THE 6Z-12Z TIME FRAME.
LIGHT MOSTLY SW WIND.

AFTER 12Z...VFR WITH CLOUDS AOA 6000 FT THIS AFTN. ISOLATED TSTMS
POSSIBLE VCNTY KGED AND KESN MID OR LATE THIS AFTN. SW WIND GUST
NEAR 15 KT THIS AFTN EXCEPT SOUTH SOUTHEAST SEABREEZES DEVELOPING
COASTAL LOCATIONS 16Z-18Z.

TONIGHT....VFR TO START THEN PATCHY MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN FOG/STRATUS/
HAZE LATE, ESPECIALLY NW NJ AND PTNS E PA.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...EARLY MORNING FOG/HAZE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...THEN
SCT AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.

FRIDAY - SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT. A DISTANT OCEAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND IS PRODUCING A LITTLE MORE SWELL THAN
ANTICIPATED. STILL ATLC SEAS AOB 4 FT THROUGH TONIGHT. SW WINDS
LESS 18KT EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING SSE THIS AFTN AND SLY
TONIGHT... ALL GUST SPEEDS AOB 22 KT.


OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY - SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE ON THURSDAY WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COAST TODAY DUE TO A
LONG PERIOD SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL. THE WAVE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO
BE AROUND 10 SECONDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KACY RAINFALL 6.58 RANKED 14TH WETTEST NOW WITH THE POR DATING
BACK THROUGH 1874. WETTEST 13.09 IN 1959.

KABE WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE NEAR RECORD WARMTH THIS AFTERNOON-JULY
29. THE RECORD THERE IS 96 SET IN 1954. RIGHT NOW WE`RE FCSTG 95.

KRDG AND KMPO MAY BE THE OTHER LOCATIONS WITHIN 2F OF THE RECORD
FOR THIS DATE

KRDG - 97 SET BACK IN 2002.
KMPO - 90 SET BACK IN 1949.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...DRAG/KLEIN 115A
SHORT TERM...DRAG/IOVINO 115A
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/IOVINO/HEAVENER/KLEIN 115A
MARINE...DRAG/IOVINO/HEAVENER 115A
RIP CURRENTS...115A
CLIMATE...115A



000
FXUS61 KPHI 290515
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
115 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY GIVING WAY TO A
WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT MAY CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A
BRIEF SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE. AFTER THE RESPITE OF HIGH PRESSURE A
STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE WEAK BOUNDARY HAS TEMPORARILY WASHED OUT AS LESS DEFINED AND
NORTHWARD TO NEAR I-78 EARLY THIS MORNING. A LITTLE FOG WILL FORM
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS BUT NOT AS EXTENSIVE AS SEEN IN YDYS 9Z-
10Z OBS. THE AREAS WHERE IT RAINED LATE YDY MAY BE MORE PREDISPOSED
TO FOG FORMATION.

AFTER SUNRISE...THE BOUNDARY DRYING BECOMES EVIDENT BY FORENOON
WITH HIGHEST DEWPOINTS AND MLCAPE THIS AFTN (400J) CONFINED TO
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR DELMARVA FCST AREA WHERE AM CARRYING A
SLIGHT CHC FOR A THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN. PWAT INCREASES TO
1.7 INCHES THERE LATE TODAY.

ELSEWHERE...HOT HOT HOT AND USED THE GFS MAVMOS STRAIGHT UP. SEA
BREEZES WILL EVENTUALLY MITIGATE SOME OF THE PURE HEAT IN DE AND
NJ BUT THIS WILL BE A TOASTY DAY WITH 18C AT 850 AND NEAR RECORD
IN SOME PLACES. PLS SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR THE VULNERABLE
RECORDS.

MAX HI TODAY 98-99F...BASICALLY JUST BELOW URBAN CORRIDOR CRITERIA
OF 100.

SW WINDS THIS AFTN MAY GUST 15 MPH IN A FEW SPOTS WITH SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTS BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM.

CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ANY SHOWERS ON THE DELMARVA SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 00Z.

THEREAFTER...SLY FLOW AND MORE HUMID WITH PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS
FORMING. PWAT INCREASES TO 1.9 INCHES BY MORNING ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR. MODELS HAVE A WEAK IB THRUST ACROSS DE AND S NJ
OVERNIGHT WHERE SCT OR ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS MIGHT
DEVELOP.

TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND USED A BLEND OF 00Z/29 NAM/GFS MOS
WITH A FAVORING OF THE WARMER AVBL GUIDANCE.

CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE EXCEPT BELOW AVG ON CONVECTION FORMING
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SOUTHEAST RIDGING GIVING WAY TO A DEVELOPING
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS BY THE WEEKEND. A
FEW IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NEXT
WEEK PROVIDING CHANCES FOR MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING COLD
FRONT MAY BRING IN MORE CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ADVECTING IN ALOFT TO SPARK SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER DURING THE MORNING HOURS, MOSTLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST, TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM REALLY PEAKING
AS HIGH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT, THOUGH LOW-90S IS NOTHING TO SNEEZE
AT. THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCED VERTICAL MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON
WHICH SHOULD KEEP DEWPOINTS FROM STAYING IN THE LOW-70S, SO
EXPECTING THEM TO MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER-60S...SHOULD KEEP HEAT
INDEX VALUES JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT STILL HAVE SOME TIME
FOR FURTHER ASSESSMENT. BESIDES THE HEAT, THE APPROACH OF THE COLD
FRONT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, WILL TRIGGER MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY IS PREVALENT BUT SHEAR IS ON THE
WEAKER SIDE AS OF NOW BUT DEPENDING ON THE SHEAR AXIS ORIENTATION
TO THE STORMS, WE COULD SEE CELL MERGER OCCUR FORMING A BROKEN
LINE OF STORMS WITH STRONGER WINDS THE MAIN ISSUE. PWATS APPROACH
AND COULD SURPASS 2" SO HEAVY EFFICIENT RAINERS IS ALSO LIKELY
WITH POOR DRAINAGE AND SPOTTY FLASH FLOOD ISSUES POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY - SUNDAY...AS MID-LEVEL TROUGHING BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN BY THE
WEEKEND, THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT BECOMES MORE PARALLEL TO THE UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW...IT LOOKS TO STALL OFFSHORE. IT BEGINS TO SLOW ITS
DEPARTURE EARLY ON FRIDAY SO THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE DRYING OUT. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM BUT THE FRONT SHOULD BE ABLE TO EAT UP THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS AS THE AIRMASS DRIES OUT A BIT. WE LOOK TO BE ON
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGHING SO MOST OF THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY
STAYS TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING US MOSTLY DRY...COULD
BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN DELMARVA CLOSER TO THE
STALLED BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL STILL
REMAIN 90+ DEGREES.

MONDAY -  TUESDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH CLOSER TO
THE REGION BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE 90+ DEGREES WITH A MOISTENING AIRMASS.
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR FOG IN THE 6Z-12Z TIME FRAME.
LIGHT MOSTLY SW WIND.

AFTER 12Z...VFR WITH CLOUDS AOA 6000 FT THIS AFTN. ISOLATED TSTMS
POSSIBLE VCNTY KGED AND KESN MID OR LATE THIS AFTN. SW WIND GUST
NEAR 15 KT THIS AFTN EXCEPT SOUTH SOUTHEAST SEABREEZES DEVELOPING
COASTAL LOCATIONS 16Z-18Z.

TONIGHT....VFR TO START THEN PATCHY MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN FOG/STRATUS/
HAZE LATE, ESPECIALLY NW NJ AND PTNS E PA.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...EARLY MORNING FOG/HAZE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...THEN
SCT AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.

FRIDAY - SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT. A DISTANT OCEAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND IS PRODUCING A LITTLE MORE SWELL THAN
ANTICIPATED. STILL ATLC SEAS AOB 4 FT THROUGH TONIGHT. SW WINDS
LESS 18KT EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING SSE THIS AFTN AND SLY
TONIGHT... ALL GUST SPEEDS AOB 22 KT.


OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY - SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE ON THURSDAY WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COAST TODAY DUE TO A
LONG PERIOD SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL. THE WAVE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO
BE AROUND 10 SECONDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KACY RAINFALL 6.58 RANKED 14TH WETTEST NOW WITH THE POR DATING
BACK THROUGH 1874. WETTEST 13.09 IN 1959.

KABE WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE NEAR RECORD WARMTH THIS AFTERNOON-JULY
29. THE RECORD THERE IS 96 SET IN 1954. RIGHT NOW WE`RE FCSTG 95.

KRDG AND KMPO MAY BE THE OTHER LOCATIONS WITHIN 2F OF THE RECORD
FOR THIS DATE

KRDG - 97 SET BACK IN 2002.
KMPO - 90 SET BACK IN 1949.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...DRAG/KLEIN 115A
SHORT TERM...DRAG/IOVINO 115A
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/IOVINO/HEAVENER/KLEIN 115A
MARINE...DRAG/IOVINO/HEAVENER 115A
RIP CURRENTS...115A
CLIMATE...115A



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290200
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1000 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH THE NEXT
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS AREA OF SHOWERS PERSISTING
OVER THE ERN VA PIEDMONT LATE THIS EVENING...REMAINING GENERALLY
WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA. OTHERWISE...EARLIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SHORTWAVE VISIBLE ON GOES WV
PROGGED TO DROP OVER ERN VA TONIGHT IN CONCERT WITH INCREASING
WINDS ALOFT. A WARM/MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
LOCAL AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S AND PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES.
WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO
CENTRAL VA AS RAP DEPICTS AN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
OVER THAT REGION. SKY AVERAGES PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY INLAND
AND MOSTLY CLEAR NE COUNTIES. LOWS IN THE LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO EXPAND EASTWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT AFTN CONVECTION WHILE MAX
TEMPS WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES. HAVE CHC POPS (25-30%) ALONG AND
WEST OF I-95. PARTLY SUNNY W/ HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW
90S...WITH LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. MILD WED NIGHT W/ LOW TEMPS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

THURSDAY...
UPR RIDGING RETROGRADES A BIT THURSDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT...CHC POPS (30-50%) WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE AFTN...LOWERING TO ~20% AT THE COAST. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH
INTO THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING
ACROSS FAR SE VA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY. HAVE SOLID
CHANCE POPS (30-50%) MOST AREAS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
THRU MIDDAY FRI...THEN FOCUS CHC POPS ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC
FRIDAY AFTN. DRY WX SHOULD RETURN TO NW AREAS BY LATE MORNING OR
AFTERNOON. LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 80S TO
AROUND 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE SW CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTING ACRS HUDSON BAY
CANADA. GFS/ECMWF INTO BETTER DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT...THEN FLATTEN OUT
SUN WITH A SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACRS THE MID ATLC BY MON.

FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS OVER FAR SRN VA/NC LATE FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND. BEST CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH/MAINLY
NE NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT EVEN HERE WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20-30%
POPS/PRIMARILY FOR THE AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME (TAPERED TO 20% FAR
SRN VA AND DRY ELSEWHERE). DID RAISE POPS A BIT FOR MON DUE TO THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AS THIS IS 5-6
DAYS OUT SO WILL GENLY KEEP POPS ONLY AT 30-40% SOUTH TO 20% NORTH.
KEEPING POPS AROUND 20% ALL AREAS TUE. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE
MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND.
LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE COME TO AN END THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS LEFT IN AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AND SHOULD END
BY 29/0400Z. DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL TODAY AT KRIC AND KSBY...
SHALLOW GROUND FOG AND FEW-SCT CLOUDS AROUND 400FT ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AFTER 29/0900Z AND PERSIST THROUGH 29/1200-1300Z BEFORE
DISSIPATING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO EXPAND EWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT AFTN THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ERN
HALF OF THE AREA (INCLUDING TAF SITES KSBY/KPHF/KORF/KECG)...
HOWEVER THERE IS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND
THE UPPER RIDGE TO KEEP VCSH AT KRIC (INCLUDING AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF INTERSTATE 95). OVERALL SHEAR REMAINS VERY WEAK...
THEREFORE THE MAIN THREAT WITH AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING QUICK REDUCTIONS TO CIGS (MVFR) AND
VISIBILITIES (LIFR TO IFR). A TROUGH CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE
IN THE DAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN IT STALLS ACROSS FAR SE VA
AND THE ERN CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY. MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED INVOF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST WITH
WEAK SFC TROUGHING INLAND ACRS THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. S/SE
WINDS AVG 10-15 KT THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AND WILL DROP OFF TO
S/SW 5-10 KT WED MORNING. MODELS SUGGEST THAT WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE
STRONGER LATE WED AFTN/WED NIGHT AS SFC/LEE TROUGH OVER VA DEEPENS
SLIGHTLY AND HELPS S/SE WINDS AVG AROUND 15 KT IN THE BAY. COULD BE
A FEW HRS WORTH OF 20 KT GUSTS IN THE BAY BUT TOO MARGINAL TO
CONSIDER ANY SCA HEADLINES FOR NOW. WAVES GENLY 1-2 FT IN THE
BAY BUT WILL PROBABLY BUILD TO 2-3 FT WED EVENING. SEAS 2-3 FT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE THU...THEN STALLS SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE WEEK. S/SE WINDS AVG 10-15 KT...TURNING
SSW THU NIGHT. NOT A STRONG COOL SURGE ON FRI AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTH WITH THE FRONT DISSIPATING OVER SRN VA/ERN NC SO WILL KEEP
WINDS IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE. FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO E/SE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/SAM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...LKB



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290200
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1000 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH THE NEXT
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS AREA OF SHOWERS PERSISTING
OVER THE ERN VA PIEDMONT LATE THIS EVENING...REMAINING GENERALLY
WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA. OTHERWISE...EARLIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SHORTWAVE VISIBLE ON GOES WV
PROGGED TO DROP OVER ERN VA TONIGHT IN CONCERT WITH INCREASING
WINDS ALOFT. A WARM/MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
LOCAL AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S AND PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES.
WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO
CENTRAL VA AS RAP DEPICTS AN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
OVER THAT REGION. SKY AVERAGES PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY INLAND
AND MOSTLY CLEAR NE COUNTIES. LOWS IN THE LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO EXPAND EASTWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT AFTN CONVECTION WHILE MAX
TEMPS WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES. HAVE CHC POPS (25-30%) ALONG AND
WEST OF I-95. PARTLY SUNNY W/ HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW
90S...WITH LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. MILD WED NIGHT W/ LOW TEMPS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

THURSDAY...
UPR RIDGING RETROGRADES A BIT THURSDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT...CHC POPS (30-50%) WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE AFTN...LOWERING TO ~20% AT THE COAST. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH
INTO THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING
ACROSS FAR SE VA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY. HAVE SOLID
CHANCE POPS (30-50%) MOST AREAS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
THRU MIDDAY FRI...THEN FOCUS CHC POPS ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC
FRIDAY AFTN. DRY WX SHOULD RETURN TO NW AREAS BY LATE MORNING OR
AFTERNOON. LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 80S TO
AROUND 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE SW CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTING ACRS HUDSON BAY
CANADA. GFS/ECMWF INTO BETTER DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT...THEN FLATTEN OUT
SUN WITH A SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACRS THE MID ATLC BY MON.

FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS OVER FAR SRN VA/NC LATE FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND. BEST CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH/MAINLY
NE NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT EVEN HERE WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20-30%
POPS/PRIMARILY FOR THE AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME (TAPERED TO 20% FAR
SRN VA AND DRY ELSEWHERE). DID RAISE POPS A BIT FOR MON DUE TO THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AS THIS IS 5-6
DAYS OUT SO WILL GENLY KEEP POPS ONLY AT 30-40% SOUTH TO 20% NORTH.
KEEPING POPS AROUND 20% ALL AREAS TUE. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE
MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND.
LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE COME TO AN END THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS LEFT IN AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AND SHOULD END
BY 29/0400Z. DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL TODAY AT KRIC AND KSBY...
SHALLOW GROUND FOG AND FEW-SCT CLOUDS AROUND 400FT ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AFTER 29/0900Z AND PERSIST THROUGH 29/1200-1300Z BEFORE
DISSIPATING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO EXPAND EWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT AFTN THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ERN
HALF OF THE AREA (INCLUDING TAF SITES KSBY/KPHF/KORF/KECG)...
HOWEVER THERE IS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND
THE UPPER RIDGE TO KEEP VCSH AT KRIC (INCLUDING AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF INTERSTATE 95). OVERALL SHEAR REMAINS VERY WEAK...
THEREFORE THE MAIN THREAT WITH AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING QUICK REDUCTIONS TO CIGS (MVFR) AND
VISIBILITIES (LIFR TO IFR). A TROUGH CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE
IN THE DAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN IT STALLS ACROSS FAR SE VA
AND THE ERN CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY. MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED INVOF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST WITH
WEAK SFC TROUGHING INLAND ACRS THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. S/SE
WINDS AVG 10-15 KT THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AND WILL DROP OFF TO
S/SW 5-10 KT WED MORNING. MODELS SUGGEST THAT WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE
STRONGER LATE WED AFTN/WED NIGHT AS SFC/LEE TROUGH OVER VA DEEPENS
SLIGHTLY AND HELPS S/SE WINDS AVG AROUND 15 KT IN THE BAY. COULD BE
A FEW HRS WORTH OF 20 KT GUSTS IN THE BAY BUT TOO MARGINAL TO
CONSIDER ANY SCA HEADLINES FOR NOW. WAVES GENLY 1-2 FT IN THE
BAY BUT WILL PROBABLY BUILD TO 2-3 FT WED EVENING. SEAS 2-3 FT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE THU...THEN STALLS SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE WEEK. S/SE WINDS AVG 10-15 KT...TURNING
SSW THU NIGHT. NOT A STRONG COOL SURGE ON FRI AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTH WITH THE FRONT DISSIPATING OVER SRN VA/ERN NC SO WILL KEEP
WINDS IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE. FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO E/SE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/SAM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...LKB




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290137 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
937 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES ON THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AREA OF SHOWERS REFUSING TO DISSIPATE OVER THE RIDGES OF FAYETTE
COUNTY. THIS AREA IS EVER SO SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD...ROLLING
OF THE WESTERN SLOPES. WITH THE LOSS OF SUNSHINE...SHOULD NOT TAKE
MUCH LONGER FOR THE RAIN TO END. WITH SUCH SLOW MOVEMENT AND
PULSES OF MORE INTENSE RAIN...ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN
RIDGES OF FAYETTE COUNTY HAVE LIKELY SEEN OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. TEMPERATURES HAVE AGAIN BEEN UPDATED
WITH LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BROKEN RECORD FORECAST WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
ISOLATED STORMS POPPING OVER THE RIDGES AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN WV AND MD. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND EXIT THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW WARM TEMPERATURES AND WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT...AND
WITHOUT THE ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY THAT WOULD COME WITH A DAYTIME
FRONTAL PASSAGE...ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS IF ANY WILL BE ISOLATED.

DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND HEIGHTS ALOFT DECREASE IN RESPONSE TO A
STRENGTHENING WESTERN CONUS RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGING UNDER A BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
KEEP MAINLY DRY AND SEASONALLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH INCLUDED UNMENTIONABLE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SATURDAY AS A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE CROSSES. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS
PROGGED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOLLOWED
CLOSE TO THE ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT INDIVIDUAL
MODEL DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH DIURNAL CU AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER WEAK SURFACE RIDGING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY
COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290137 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
937 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES ON THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AREA OF SHOWERS REFUSING TO DISSIPATE OVER THE RIDGES OF FAYETTE
COUNTY. THIS AREA IS EVER SO SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD...ROLLING
OF THE WESTERN SLOPES. WITH THE LOSS OF SUNSHINE...SHOULD NOT TAKE
MUCH LONGER FOR THE RAIN TO END. WITH SUCH SLOW MOVEMENT AND
PULSES OF MORE INTENSE RAIN...ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN
RIDGES OF FAYETTE COUNTY HAVE LIKELY SEEN OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. TEMPERATURES HAVE AGAIN BEEN UPDATED
WITH LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BROKEN RECORD FORECAST WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
ISOLATED STORMS POPPING OVER THE RIDGES AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN WV AND MD. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND EXIT THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW WARM TEMPERATURES AND WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT...AND
WITHOUT THE ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY THAT WOULD COME WITH A DAYTIME
FRONTAL PASSAGE...ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS IF ANY WILL BE ISOLATED.

DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND HEIGHTS ALOFT DECREASE IN RESPONSE TO A
STRENGTHENING WESTERN CONUS RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGING UNDER A BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
KEEP MAINLY DRY AND SEASONALLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH INCLUDED UNMENTIONABLE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SATURDAY AS A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE CROSSES. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS
PROGGED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOLLOWED
CLOSE TO THE ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT INDIVIDUAL
MODEL DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH DIURNAL CU AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER WEAK SURFACE RIDGING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY
COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290137 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
937 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES ON THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AREA OF SHOWERS REFUSING TO DISSIPATE OVER THE RIDGES OF FAYETTE
COUNTY. THIS AREA IS EVER SO SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD...ROLLING
OF THE WESTERN SLOPES. WITH THE LOSS OF SUNSHINE...SHOULD NOT TAKE
MUCH LONGER FOR THE RAIN TO END. WITH SUCH SLOW MOVEMENT AND
PULSES OF MORE INTENSE RAIN...ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN
RIDGES OF FAYETTE COUNTY HAVE LIKELY SEEN OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. TEMPERATURES HAVE AGAIN BEEN UPDATED
WITH LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BROKEN RECORD FORECAST WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
ISOLATED STORMS POPPING OVER THE RIDGES AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN WV AND MD. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND EXIT THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW WARM TEMPERATURES AND WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT...AND
WITHOUT THE ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY THAT WOULD COME WITH A DAYTIME
FRONTAL PASSAGE...ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS IF ANY WILL BE ISOLATED.

DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND HEIGHTS ALOFT DECREASE IN RESPONSE TO A
STRENGTHENING WESTERN CONUS RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGING UNDER A BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
KEEP MAINLY DRY AND SEASONALLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH INCLUDED UNMENTIONABLE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SATURDAY AS A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE CROSSES. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS
PROGGED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOLLOWED
CLOSE TO THE ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT INDIVIDUAL
MODEL DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH DIURNAL CU AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER WEAK SURFACE RIDGING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY
COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290137 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
937 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES ON THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AREA OF SHOWERS REFUSING TO DISSIPATE OVER THE RIDGES OF FAYETTE
COUNTY. THIS AREA IS EVER SO SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD...ROLLING
OF THE WESTERN SLOPES. WITH THE LOSS OF SUNSHINE...SHOULD NOT TAKE
MUCH LONGER FOR THE RAIN TO END. WITH SUCH SLOW MOVEMENT AND
PULSES OF MORE INTENSE RAIN...ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN
RIDGES OF FAYETTE COUNTY HAVE LIKELY SEEN OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. TEMPERATURES HAVE AGAIN BEEN UPDATED
WITH LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BROKEN RECORD FORECAST WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
ISOLATED STORMS POPPING OVER THE RIDGES AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN WV AND MD. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND EXIT THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW WARM TEMPERATURES AND WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT...AND
WITHOUT THE ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY THAT WOULD COME WITH A DAYTIME
FRONTAL PASSAGE...ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS IF ANY WILL BE ISOLATED.

DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND HEIGHTS ALOFT DECREASE IN RESPONSE TO A
STRENGTHENING WESTERN CONUS RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGING UNDER A BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
KEEP MAINLY DRY AND SEASONALLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH INCLUDED UNMENTIONABLE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SATURDAY AS A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE CROSSES. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS
PROGGED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOLLOWED
CLOSE TO THE ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT INDIVIDUAL
MODEL DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH DIURNAL CU AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER WEAK SURFACE RIDGING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY
COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KLWX 290121
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
921 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDING JUST OFF SHORE. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE. ANOTHER QUICK
MOVING COLD FRONT BRUSHES THE MID ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN ACTIVE EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS KEPT REGENERATING ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS
THE REGION IN A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. HEAVY RAIN WAS
REPORTED WITH AMTS OF 2-3 INCHES IN THE HEAVIEST STORMS. THE
IAD RAOB WAS RELEASED LATE DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE OFFICE THIS EVENING.

USING 00Z RNK RAOB AND MESOANALYSIS...INSTABILITY IS PRESENT
ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING SLOW TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT. THE OVERALL TREND IS THAT INTENSITY IS DECREASING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SHOWERS HAVE BECOME MORE STRAITFORM
ACROSS THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND CENTRAL FOOTHILLS WITH
MODERATE RAINFALL RATES. SIMILAR TO LAST EVENING THE NEXT STORY
IS FOG.

LIGHT FLOW AND CLOUDS CLEARING OVER A VERY SATUATED GROUND WILL
ALLOW FOG...DENSE AT TIMES TO FORM MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
FOOTHILLS...PIEDMONT AND INTO NORTHERN VA AND WASHINGTON DC
SUBURBS. HEAVY RAIN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL ALSO LEAD TO AREAS
OF FOG MAINLY ACROSS THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE OF WV. WARM CONDITIONS TONIGHT...TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOW 70S...IN THE UPPER 70S IN THE METROS.

FLOW BECOMES SLIGHTLY STRONGER TOMORROW AND MORE SRLY BRINGING
DEWPOINTS UP WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 100F. CHANCE OF T-STORMS
CREEPS UP TO ABOUT I-70 IN NCNTRL MD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
INCRSG CONFIDENCE OF CONVECTION OCCURRING THURS AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. FALLING HEIGHTS ON THURSDAY AS UPPER LVL
RIDGE WEAKENS/PUSHES EAST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. NEAR
ZONAL FLOW TAKES SHAPE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WITH THE A MORE
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE CLOSED LOW OVER CANADA DIGGING
SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES...PROVIDING THE EXTRA PUSH TO FINALLY
PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH AND TO THE SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY
MORNING. 12Z MODEL SUITE COMING INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME...PLACING IT SOMETIME IN THE AFTN IN THE
WEST...AND THEN OFFSHORE BY 12Z FRI MORNING.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURS...WAA PLACES 850MB TEMPS NEAR 20 DEGREES
CELSIUS. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. MOISTURE ADVECTION
ALSO WILL RESULT IN DEW PTS HOVERING AROUND TO RIGHT ABV 70. HEAT
INDICES NEARING THE CENTURY MARK...WITH PSBL 100-105 RANGE IF
TEMPS WARM SLIGHTLY MORE OR IF DEW PTS INCREASE SLIGHTLY. WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TREND. THE COMBO OF HIGHER TEMPS AND DEW
PTS SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WITH SBCAPE
VALUES 1000-2000 J/KG BY THE AFTN. WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR ABOUT 20 KTS
AND STEEPENING MID LVL LAPSE RATES ALSO BY THE AFTN...SUFFICIENT
INGREDIENTS EXIST FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME STRONGER STORMS.
WHILE THE SFC FORCING EXISTS WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LACK OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC SUGGESTS MOST OF THE
CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY ANYTHING STRONGER TO SVR WOULD BE RIGHT
ALONG THE FRONT LATE AFTN INTO THE EVENING. PWATS INCRSG TO AROUND
1.8 INCHES WOULD ALSO SUGGEST THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL.

FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST SLOWLY THURS NIGHT...WITH THE PCPN
TAPERING OFF AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT...DCRSG DEW PTS
BACK INTO THE 60S...AND THE 50S FOR ISOLATED SPOTS. THE COLDER AIR
DOESNT QUITE MAKE IT ALL THE WAY INTO THE CWA. SO WHILE TEMPS WILL
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON FRIDAY...STILL EXPECTING A WARM...YET SLIGHTLY
DRIER DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH QUASI-STATIONARY OVER REGION THROUGH PERIOD.
WEAK PVA AFFECTING ARE THROUGH WEEKEND. MODERATE PVA ARRIVING
MONDAY.

MUCH DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE HIGH BUILDING ACROSS
REGION FRIDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK COLD FRONT SATURDAY.
AFTERNOON HEATING AND A SLIGHT INCREASE OF MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH
TO TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER SOUTHERN MD
DURING THE WEEKEND. INCREASING MOISTURE...STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND LEE-SIDE TROUGH LENDS GREATER CONFIDENCE IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY ESPECIALLY ALONG SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST FRINGES OF AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHRA/TSRA DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. VCTS STILL EXPECTED AT CHO
THIS EVENING. FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT WILL LIKELY IMPACT CHO-MRB-
IAD WITH IFR CONDITIONS. AT THIS TIME... KEPT IAD AT MVFR BUT THE
RECENT HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY CAUSE THEM TO GET TO IFR BY WED
MORNING. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT DCA INTO WED MORNING.
VSBYS WILL IMPROVE WED MORNING. ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE WED
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...COVERAGE SEEMS LIMITED AND THEFORE KEPT
OUT OF TAFS.

PSBL MVFR CIGS THURS MORNING FROM ON NIGHT PCPN.
EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY. OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION...VFR CONDITIONS THEN THURS AFTN-FRI. INCRSG CHC OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS THURS AFTN/EVENING WITH A COLD FRONT MVG THRU. ANY
STORM COULD BRING CONDITIONS DOWN TO IFR...WITH HEAVY RAIN...AND
GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. FLOW BECOMES
SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND BETTER DEFINED FROM THE SOUTH. GUSTS UP TO
17 KT LOWER BAY.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THUR MORNING. INCRSG SLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD BRING GUSTS BACK TO
AROUND 18-20 KTS THURS AFTN AND NIGHT ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES RUNNING AROUND A HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. MAIN CONCERN IS
ANNAPOLIS LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...WATER LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN
JUST UNDER MINOR FLOOD. WILL NEED TO MONITOR OVERNIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...WATER LEVELS SHOULD STAY UNDER FLOOD THRESHOLDS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...HAS/LFR
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...CEM/SEARS/HAS/LFR
MARINE...CEM/SEARS/LFR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HAS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 290121
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
921 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDING JUST OFF SHORE. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE. ANOTHER QUICK
MOVING COLD FRONT BRUSHES THE MID ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN ACTIVE EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS KEPT REGENERATING ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS
THE REGION IN A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. HEAVY RAIN WAS
REPORTED WITH AMTS OF 2-3 INCHES IN THE HEAVIEST STORMS. THE
IAD RAOB WAS RELEASED LATE DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE OFFICE THIS EVENING.

USING 00Z RNK RAOB AND MESOANALYSIS...INSTABILITY IS PRESENT
ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING SLOW TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT. THE OVERALL TREND IS THAT INTENSITY IS DECREASING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SHOWERS HAVE BECOME MORE STRAITFORM
ACROSS THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND CENTRAL FOOTHILLS WITH
MODERATE RAINFALL RATES. SIMILAR TO LAST EVENING THE NEXT STORY
IS FOG.

LIGHT FLOW AND CLOUDS CLEARING OVER A VERY SATUATED GROUND WILL
ALLOW FOG...DENSE AT TIMES TO FORM MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
FOOTHILLS...PIEDMONT AND INTO NORTHERN VA AND WASHINGTON DC
SUBURBS. HEAVY RAIN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL ALSO LEAD TO AREAS
OF FOG MAINLY ACROSS THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE OF WV. WARM CONDITIONS TONIGHT...TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOW 70S...IN THE UPPER 70S IN THE METROS.

FLOW BECOMES SLIGHTLY STRONGER TOMORROW AND MORE SRLY BRINGING
DEWPOINTS UP WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 100F. CHANCE OF T-STORMS
CREEPS UP TO ABOUT I-70 IN NCNTRL MD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
INCRSG CONFIDENCE OF CONVECTION OCCURRING THURS AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. FALLING HEIGHTS ON THURSDAY AS UPPER LVL
RIDGE WEAKENS/PUSHES EAST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. NEAR
ZONAL FLOW TAKES SHAPE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WITH THE A MORE
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE CLOSED LOW OVER CANADA DIGGING
SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES...PROVIDING THE EXTRA PUSH TO FINALLY
PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH AND TO THE SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY
MORNING. 12Z MODEL SUITE COMING INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME...PLACING IT SOMETIME IN THE AFTN IN THE
WEST...AND THEN OFFSHORE BY 12Z FRI MORNING.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURS...WAA PLACES 850MB TEMPS NEAR 20 DEGREES
CELSIUS. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. MOISTURE ADVECTION
ALSO WILL RESULT IN DEW PTS HOVERING AROUND TO RIGHT ABV 70. HEAT
INDICES NEARING THE CENTURY MARK...WITH PSBL 100-105 RANGE IF
TEMPS WARM SLIGHTLY MORE OR IF DEW PTS INCREASE SLIGHTLY. WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TREND. THE COMBO OF HIGHER TEMPS AND DEW
PTS SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WITH SBCAPE
VALUES 1000-2000 J/KG BY THE AFTN. WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR ABOUT 20 KTS
AND STEEPENING MID LVL LAPSE RATES ALSO BY THE AFTN...SUFFICIENT
INGREDIENTS EXIST FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME STRONGER STORMS.
WHILE THE SFC FORCING EXISTS WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LACK OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC SUGGESTS MOST OF THE
CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY ANYTHING STRONGER TO SVR WOULD BE RIGHT
ALONG THE FRONT LATE AFTN INTO THE EVENING. PWATS INCRSG TO AROUND
1.8 INCHES WOULD ALSO SUGGEST THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL.

FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST SLOWLY THURS NIGHT...WITH THE PCPN
TAPERING OFF AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT...DCRSG DEW PTS
BACK INTO THE 60S...AND THE 50S FOR ISOLATED SPOTS. THE COLDER AIR
DOESNT QUITE MAKE IT ALL THE WAY INTO THE CWA. SO WHILE TEMPS WILL
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON FRIDAY...STILL EXPECTING A WARM...YET SLIGHTLY
DRIER DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH QUASI-STATIONARY OVER REGION THROUGH PERIOD.
WEAK PVA AFFECTING ARE THROUGH WEEKEND. MODERATE PVA ARRIVING
MONDAY.

MUCH DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE HIGH BUILDING ACROSS
REGION FRIDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK COLD FRONT SATURDAY.
AFTERNOON HEATING AND A SLIGHT INCREASE OF MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH
TO TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER SOUTHERN MD
DURING THE WEEKEND. INCREASING MOISTURE...STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND LEE-SIDE TROUGH LENDS GREATER CONFIDENCE IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY ESPECIALLY ALONG SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST FRINGES OF AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHRA/TSRA DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. VCTS STILL EXPECTED AT CHO
THIS EVENING. FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT WILL LIKELY IMPACT CHO-MRB-
IAD WITH IFR CONDITIONS. AT THIS TIME... KEPT IAD AT MVFR BUT THE
RECENT HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY CAUSE THEM TO GET TO IFR BY WED
MORNING. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT DCA INTO WED MORNING.
VSBYS WILL IMPROVE WED MORNING. ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE WED
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...COVERAGE SEEMS LIMITED AND THEFORE KEPT
OUT OF TAFS.

PSBL MVFR CIGS THURS MORNING FROM ON NIGHT PCPN.
EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY. OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION...VFR CONDITIONS THEN THURS AFTN-FRI. INCRSG CHC OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS THURS AFTN/EVENING WITH A COLD FRONT MVG THRU. ANY
STORM COULD BRING CONDITIONS DOWN TO IFR...WITH HEAVY RAIN...AND
GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. FLOW BECOMES
SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND BETTER DEFINED FROM THE SOUTH. GUSTS UP TO
17 KT LOWER BAY.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THUR MORNING. INCRSG SLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD BRING GUSTS BACK TO
AROUND 18-20 KTS THURS AFTN AND NIGHT ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES RUNNING AROUND A HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. MAIN CONCERN IS
ANNAPOLIS LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...WATER LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN
JUST UNDER MINOR FLOOD. WILL NEED TO MONITOR OVERNIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...WATER LEVELS SHOULD STAY UNDER FLOOD THRESHOLDS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...HAS/LFR
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...CEM/SEARS/HAS/LFR
MARINE...CEM/SEARS/LFR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HAS




000
FXUS61 KPHI 290115
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
915 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY GIVING WAY TO A
WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT MAY CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A
BRIEF SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE. AFTER THE RESPITE OF HIGH PRESSURE A
STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE
MASON-DIXON LINE, STRETCHING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA AND
CENTRAL NJ. THE BOUNDARY WAS NOTED BY A SHARP DEWPOINT GRADIENT WITH
DEWPOINTS NEAR 60F TO THE NORTH AND LOW 70S TO THE SOUTH. THE LATEST
SPC MESOANALYSIS REVEALS A SIMILAR TIGHT GRADIENT IN MLCAPE WITH
VALUES RANGING FROM AOB 500 J/KG NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TO 2000
J/KG FARTHER SOUTH. SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE THE HIGHER INSTABILITY RESIDES.
WITH A LACK OF ORGANIZED LIFT OVER THE REGION AND DISSIPATING
SEABREEZES, CONVECTION HAS FOLLOWED THE DIURNAL TREND AND IS
WANING QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES. ASIDE
FROM A COUPLE OF LEFTOVER SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN PHILLY, SOUTHERN NJ
AND THE DELMARVA THIS EVENING, TONIGHT WILL BE DRY.

THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND BASICALLY WASH OUT OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE FAVORED IN THE
MOIST AIRMASS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, ESPECIALLY FOR THE FEW LOCALES
THAT RECEIVED RAIN TODAY.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH SURFACE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EASTWARD AND IT
SHOULD APPROACH OUR REGION LATE ON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EVEN LOWER THAN IT
WAS TODAY. WE ARE EXPECTING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
SOME CIRRUS OVERHEAD ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CUMULUS.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 90 TO 95 IN MUCH OF
OUR REGION. READINGS SHOULD GET NO HIGHER THAN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
80S IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

IT APPEARS AS THOUGH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE FROM
ALOFT FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DEW POINT READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
FAVOR THE MIDDLE 60S ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, EXCEPT IN DELAWARE AND
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND WHERE THE BAYS SHOULD HELP KEEP DEW POINT
READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT IS ANTICIPATED TO RESULT
IN MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES BEING NEAR OR A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE THE
MAXIMUM AIR TEMPERATURES IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY. THE
IMPACT OF THE HIGHER HUMIDITY ON THE DELMARVA SHOULD BRING MAXIMUM
HEAT INDEX VALUES SOLIDLY INTO THE UPPER 90S THERE WITH PERHAPS A
FEW SPOTS HITTING 100, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE CANAL.

WE WILL NOT BE ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY OR AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING
AT THIS TIME SINCE ALL LOCATIONS IN OUR FORECAST AREA ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN JUST BELOW THE ISSUANCE CRITERIA.

A SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH IS EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SOUTHEAST RIDGING GIVING WAY TO A
DEVELOPING TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS BY THE
WEEKEND. A FEW IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
NEXT WEEK PROVIDING CHANCES FOR MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

THURSDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING COLD
FRONT MAY BRING IN MORE CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ADVECTING IN ALOFT TO SPARK SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER DURING THE MORNING HOURS, MOSTLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST, TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM REALLY PEAKING
AS HIGH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT, THOUGH LOW-90S IS NOTHING TO SNEEZE
AT. THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCED VERTICAL MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON
WHICH SHOULD KEEP DEWPOINTS FROM STAYING IN THE LOW-70S, SO
EXPECTING THEM TO MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER-60S...SHOULD KEEP HEAT
INDEX VALUES JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT STILL HAVE SOME TIME
FOR FURTHER ASSESSMENT. BESIDES THE HEAT, THE APPROACH OF THE COLD
FRONT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, WILL TRIGGER MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY IS PREVALENT BUT SHEAR IS ON THE
WEAKER SIDE AS OF NOW BUT DEPENDING ON THE SHEAR AXIS ORIENTATION
TO THE STORMS, WE COULD SEE CELL MERGER OCCUR FORMING A BROKEN
LINE OF STORMS WITH STRONGER WINDS THE MAIN ISSUE. PWATS APPROACH
AND COULD SURPASS 2" SO HEAVY EFFICIENT RAINERS IS ALSO LIKELY
WITH POOR DRAINAGE AND SPOTTY FLASH FLOOD ISSUES POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY - SUNDAY...AS MID-LEVEL TROUGHING BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN BY THE
WEEKEND, THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT BECOMES MORE PARALLEL TO THE UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW...IT LOOKS TO STALL OFFSHORE. IT BEGINS TO SLOW ITS
DEPARTURE EARLY ON FRIDAY SO THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE DRYING OUT. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM BUT THE FRONT SHOULD BE ABLE TO EAT UP THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS AS THE AIRMASS DRIES OUT A BIT. WE LOOK TO BE ON
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGHING SO MOST OF THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY
STAYS TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING US MOSTLY DRY...COULD
BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN DELMARVA CLOSER TO THE
STALLED BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL STILL
REMAIN 90+ DEGREES.

MONDAY -  TUESDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH CLOSER TO
THE REGION BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE 90+ DEGREES WITH A MOISTENING AIRMASS.
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT A PERIOD
OF VFR THIS EVENING BEFORE FOG DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT. THE BEST FOG
POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE AT ILG/MIV/ACY WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS
RESIDE. ACY MAY BE PARTICULARLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FOG/LOW CLOUDS
TONIGHT AS THE GROUND IS WET FROM EARLIER RAINFALL. A PERIOD OF
MVFR VSBYS AND/OR CIGS LIKELY WITH IFR POSSIBLE BETWEEN ABOUT
06-12Z. CONFIDENCE IN FOG LOWERS FARTHER NORTH AND WEST TOWARD
RDG AND ABE AS THEY CURRENTLY RESIDE ON THE DRIER SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY, BUT THE BOUNDARY MAY TRY TO DRIFT NORTHWARD.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS IS IN THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS VERY LOW.

A LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING, BECOMING
S-SW 5-10 KT BY THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...EARLY MORNING FOG/HAZE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...THEN
SCT AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.

FRIDAY - SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

A SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS IS EXPECTED. WAVE
HEIGHTS ON THE OCEAN WILL FAVOR 2 TO 3 FEET WHILE WAVES ON DELAWARE
BAY SHOULD BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY - SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE ON THURSDAY WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COAST ON WEDNESDAY DUE
TO A LONG PERIOD SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL. THE WAVE PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AROUND 10 SECONDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER/KLEIN
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER
RIP CURRENTS...IOVINO/KLEIN




000
FXUS61 KPHI 290115
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
915 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY GIVING WAY TO A
WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT MAY CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A
BRIEF SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE. AFTER THE RESPITE OF HIGH PRESSURE A
STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE
MASON-DIXON LINE, STRETCHING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA AND
CENTRAL NJ. THE BOUNDARY WAS NOTED BY A SHARP DEWPOINT GRADIENT WITH
DEWPOINTS NEAR 60F TO THE NORTH AND LOW 70S TO THE SOUTH. THE LATEST
SPC MESOANALYSIS REVEALS A SIMILAR TIGHT GRADIENT IN MLCAPE WITH
VALUES RANGING FROM AOB 500 J/KG NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TO 2000
J/KG FARTHER SOUTH. SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE THE HIGHER INSTABILITY RESIDES.
WITH A LACK OF ORGANIZED LIFT OVER THE REGION AND DISSIPATING
SEABREEZES, CONVECTION HAS FOLLOWED THE DIURNAL TREND AND IS
WANING QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES. ASIDE
FROM A COUPLE OF LEFTOVER SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN PHILLY, SOUTHERN NJ
AND THE DELMARVA THIS EVENING, TONIGHT WILL BE DRY.

THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND BASICALLY WASH OUT OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE FAVORED IN THE
MOIST AIRMASS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, ESPECIALLY FOR THE FEW LOCALES
THAT RECEIVED RAIN TODAY.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH SURFACE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EASTWARD AND IT
SHOULD APPROACH OUR REGION LATE ON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EVEN LOWER THAN IT
WAS TODAY. WE ARE EXPECTING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
SOME CIRRUS OVERHEAD ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CUMULUS.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 90 TO 95 IN MUCH OF
OUR REGION. READINGS SHOULD GET NO HIGHER THAN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
80S IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

IT APPEARS AS THOUGH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE FROM
ALOFT FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DEW POINT READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
FAVOR THE MIDDLE 60S ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, EXCEPT IN DELAWARE AND
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND WHERE THE BAYS SHOULD HELP KEEP DEW POINT
READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT IS ANTICIPATED TO RESULT
IN MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES BEING NEAR OR A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE THE
MAXIMUM AIR TEMPERATURES IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY. THE
IMPACT OF THE HIGHER HUMIDITY ON THE DELMARVA SHOULD BRING MAXIMUM
HEAT INDEX VALUES SOLIDLY INTO THE UPPER 90S THERE WITH PERHAPS A
FEW SPOTS HITTING 100, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE CANAL.

WE WILL NOT BE ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY OR AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING
AT THIS TIME SINCE ALL LOCATIONS IN OUR FORECAST AREA ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN JUST BELOW THE ISSUANCE CRITERIA.

A SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH IS EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SOUTHEAST RIDGING GIVING WAY TO A
DEVELOPING TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS BY THE
WEEKEND. A FEW IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
NEXT WEEK PROVIDING CHANCES FOR MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

THURSDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING COLD
FRONT MAY BRING IN MORE CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ADVECTING IN ALOFT TO SPARK SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER DURING THE MORNING HOURS, MOSTLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST, TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM REALLY PEAKING
AS HIGH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT, THOUGH LOW-90S IS NOTHING TO SNEEZE
AT. THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCED VERTICAL MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON
WHICH SHOULD KEEP DEWPOINTS FROM STAYING IN THE LOW-70S, SO
EXPECTING THEM TO MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER-60S...SHOULD KEEP HEAT
INDEX VALUES JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT STILL HAVE SOME TIME
FOR FURTHER ASSESSMENT. BESIDES THE HEAT, THE APPROACH OF THE COLD
FRONT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, WILL TRIGGER MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY IS PREVALENT BUT SHEAR IS ON THE
WEAKER SIDE AS OF NOW BUT DEPENDING ON THE SHEAR AXIS ORIENTATION
TO THE STORMS, WE COULD SEE CELL MERGER OCCUR FORMING A BROKEN
LINE OF STORMS WITH STRONGER WINDS THE MAIN ISSUE. PWATS APPROACH
AND COULD SURPASS 2" SO HEAVY EFFICIENT RAINERS IS ALSO LIKELY
WITH POOR DRAINAGE AND SPOTTY FLASH FLOOD ISSUES POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY - SUNDAY...AS MID-LEVEL TROUGHING BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN BY THE
WEEKEND, THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT BECOMES MORE PARALLEL TO THE UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW...IT LOOKS TO STALL OFFSHORE. IT BEGINS TO SLOW ITS
DEPARTURE EARLY ON FRIDAY SO THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE DRYING OUT. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM BUT THE FRONT SHOULD BE ABLE TO EAT UP THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS AS THE AIRMASS DRIES OUT A BIT. WE LOOK TO BE ON
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGHING SO MOST OF THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY
STAYS TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING US MOSTLY DRY...COULD
BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN DELMARVA CLOSER TO THE
STALLED BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL STILL
REMAIN 90+ DEGREES.

MONDAY -  TUESDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH CLOSER TO
THE REGION BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE 90+ DEGREES WITH A MOISTENING AIRMASS.
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT A PERIOD
OF VFR THIS EVENING BEFORE FOG DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT. THE BEST FOG
POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE AT ILG/MIV/ACY WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS
RESIDE. ACY MAY BE PARTICULARLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FOG/LOW CLOUDS
TONIGHT AS THE GROUND IS WET FROM EARLIER RAINFALL. A PERIOD OF
MVFR VSBYS AND/OR CIGS LIKELY WITH IFR POSSIBLE BETWEEN ABOUT
06-12Z. CONFIDENCE IN FOG LOWERS FARTHER NORTH AND WEST TOWARD
RDG AND ABE AS THEY CURRENTLY RESIDE ON THE DRIER SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY, BUT THE BOUNDARY MAY TRY TO DRIFT NORTHWARD.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS IS IN THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS VERY LOW.

A LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING, BECOMING
S-SW 5-10 KT BY THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...EARLY MORNING FOG/HAZE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...THEN
SCT AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.

FRIDAY - SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

A SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS IS EXPECTED. WAVE
HEIGHTS ON THE OCEAN WILL FAVOR 2 TO 3 FEET WHILE WAVES ON DELAWARE
BAY SHOULD BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY - SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE ON THURSDAY WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COAST ON WEDNESDAY DUE
TO A LONG PERIOD SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL. THE WAVE PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AROUND 10 SECONDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER/KLEIN
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER
RIP CURRENTS...IOVINO/KLEIN




000
FXUS61 KPHI 290115
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
915 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY GIVING WAY TO A
WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT MAY CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A
BRIEF SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE. AFTER THE RESPITE OF HIGH PRESSURE A
STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE
MASON-DIXON LINE, STRETCHING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA AND
CENTRAL NJ. THE BOUNDARY WAS NOTED BY A SHARP DEWPOINT GRADIENT WITH
DEWPOINTS NEAR 60F TO THE NORTH AND LOW 70S TO THE SOUTH. THE LATEST
SPC MESOANALYSIS REVEALS A SIMILAR TIGHT GRADIENT IN MLCAPE WITH
VALUES RANGING FROM AOB 500 J/KG NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TO 2000
J/KG FARTHER SOUTH. SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE THE HIGHER INSTABILITY RESIDES.
WITH A LACK OF ORGANIZED LIFT OVER THE REGION AND DISSIPATING
SEABREEZES, CONVECTION HAS FOLLOWED THE DIURNAL TREND AND IS
WANING QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES. ASIDE
FROM A COUPLE OF LEFTOVER SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN PHILLY, SOUTHERN NJ
AND THE DELMARVA THIS EVENING, TONIGHT WILL BE DRY.

THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND BASICALLY WASH OUT OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE FAVORED IN THE
MOIST AIRMASS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, ESPECIALLY FOR THE FEW LOCALES
THAT RECEIVED RAIN TODAY.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH SURFACE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EASTWARD AND IT
SHOULD APPROACH OUR REGION LATE ON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EVEN LOWER THAN IT
WAS TODAY. WE ARE EXPECTING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
SOME CIRRUS OVERHEAD ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CUMULUS.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 90 TO 95 IN MUCH OF
OUR REGION. READINGS SHOULD GET NO HIGHER THAN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
80S IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

IT APPEARS AS THOUGH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE FROM
ALOFT FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DEW POINT READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
FAVOR THE MIDDLE 60S ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, EXCEPT IN DELAWARE AND
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND WHERE THE BAYS SHOULD HELP KEEP DEW POINT
READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT IS ANTICIPATED TO RESULT
IN MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES BEING NEAR OR A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE THE
MAXIMUM AIR TEMPERATURES IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY. THE
IMPACT OF THE HIGHER HUMIDITY ON THE DELMARVA SHOULD BRING MAXIMUM
HEAT INDEX VALUES SOLIDLY INTO THE UPPER 90S THERE WITH PERHAPS A
FEW SPOTS HITTING 100, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE CANAL.

WE WILL NOT BE ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY OR AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING
AT THIS TIME SINCE ALL LOCATIONS IN OUR FORECAST AREA ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN JUST BELOW THE ISSUANCE CRITERIA.

A SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH IS EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SOUTHEAST RIDGING GIVING WAY TO A
DEVELOPING TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS BY THE
WEEKEND. A FEW IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
NEXT WEEK PROVIDING CHANCES FOR MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

THURSDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING COLD
FRONT MAY BRING IN MORE CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ADVECTING IN ALOFT TO SPARK SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER DURING THE MORNING HOURS, MOSTLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST, TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM REALLY PEAKING
AS HIGH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT, THOUGH LOW-90S IS NOTHING TO SNEEZE
AT. THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCED VERTICAL MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON
WHICH SHOULD KEEP DEWPOINTS FROM STAYING IN THE LOW-70S, SO
EXPECTING THEM TO MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER-60S...SHOULD KEEP HEAT
INDEX VALUES JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT STILL HAVE SOME TIME
FOR FURTHER ASSESSMENT. BESIDES THE HEAT, THE APPROACH OF THE COLD
FRONT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, WILL TRIGGER MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY IS PREVALENT BUT SHEAR IS ON THE
WEAKER SIDE AS OF NOW BUT DEPENDING ON THE SHEAR AXIS ORIENTATION
TO THE STORMS, WE COULD SEE CELL MERGER OCCUR FORMING A BROKEN
LINE OF STORMS WITH STRONGER WINDS THE MAIN ISSUE. PWATS APPROACH
AND COULD SURPASS 2" SO HEAVY EFFICIENT RAINERS IS ALSO LIKELY
WITH POOR DRAINAGE AND SPOTTY FLASH FLOOD ISSUES POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY - SUNDAY...AS MID-LEVEL TROUGHING BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN BY THE
WEEKEND, THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT BECOMES MORE PARALLEL TO THE UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW...IT LOOKS TO STALL OFFSHORE. IT BEGINS TO SLOW ITS
DEPARTURE EARLY ON FRIDAY SO THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE DRYING OUT. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM BUT THE FRONT SHOULD BE ABLE TO EAT UP THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS AS THE AIRMASS DRIES OUT A BIT. WE LOOK TO BE ON
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGHING SO MOST OF THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY
STAYS TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING US MOSTLY DRY...COULD
BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN DELMARVA CLOSER TO THE
STALLED BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL STILL
REMAIN 90+ DEGREES.

MONDAY -  TUESDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH CLOSER TO
THE REGION BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE 90+ DEGREES WITH A MOISTENING AIRMASS.
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT A PERIOD
OF VFR THIS EVENING BEFORE FOG DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT. THE BEST FOG
POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE AT ILG/MIV/ACY WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS
RESIDE. ACY MAY BE PARTICULARLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FOG/LOW CLOUDS
TONIGHT AS THE GROUND IS WET FROM EARLIER RAINFALL. A PERIOD OF
MVFR VSBYS AND/OR CIGS LIKELY WITH IFR POSSIBLE BETWEEN ABOUT
06-12Z. CONFIDENCE IN FOG LOWERS FARTHER NORTH AND WEST TOWARD
RDG AND ABE AS THEY CURRENTLY RESIDE ON THE DRIER SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY, BUT THE BOUNDARY MAY TRY TO DRIFT NORTHWARD.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS IS IN THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS VERY LOW.

A LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING, BECOMING
S-SW 5-10 KT BY THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...EARLY MORNING FOG/HAZE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...THEN
SCT AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.

FRIDAY - SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

A SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS IS EXPECTED. WAVE
HEIGHTS ON THE OCEAN WILL FAVOR 2 TO 3 FEET WHILE WAVES ON DELAWARE
BAY SHOULD BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY - SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE ON THURSDAY WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COAST ON WEDNESDAY DUE
TO A LONG PERIOD SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL. THE WAVE PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AROUND 10 SECONDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER/KLEIN
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER
RIP CURRENTS...IOVINO/KLEIN




000
FXUS61 KPHI 290115
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
915 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY GIVING WAY TO A
WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT MAY CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A
BRIEF SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE. AFTER THE RESPITE OF HIGH PRESSURE A
STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE
MASON-DIXON LINE, STRETCHING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA AND
CENTRAL NJ. THE BOUNDARY WAS NOTED BY A SHARP DEWPOINT GRADIENT WITH
DEWPOINTS NEAR 60F TO THE NORTH AND LOW 70S TO THE SOUTH. THE LATEST
SPC MESOANALYSIS REVEALS A SIMILAR TIGHT GRADIENT IN MLCAPE WITH
VALUES RANGING FROM AOB 500 J/KG NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TO 2000
J/KG FARTHER SOUTH. SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE THE HIGHER INSTABILITY RESIDES.
WITH A LACK OF ORGANIZED LIFT OVER THE REGION AND DISSIPATING
SEABREEZES, CONVECTION HAS FOLLOWED THE DIURNAL TREND AND IS
WANING QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES. ASIDE
FROM A COUPLE OF LEFTOVER SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN PHILLY, SOUTHERN NJ
AND THE DELMARVA THIS EVENING, TONIGHT WILL BE DRY.

THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND BASICALLY WASH OUT OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE FAVORED IN THE
MOIST AIRMASS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, ESPECIALLY FOR THE FEW LOCALES
THAT RECEIVED RAIN TODAY.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH SURFACE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EASTWARD AND IT
SHOULD APPROACH OUR REGION LATE ON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EVEN LOWER THAN IT
WAS TODAY. WE ARE EXPECTING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
SOME CIRRUS OVERHEAD ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CUMULUS.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 90 TO 95 IN MUCH OF
OUR REGION. READINGS SHOULD GET NO HIGHER THAN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
80S IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

IT APPEARS AS THOUGH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE FROM
ALOFT FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DEW POINT READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
FAVOR THE MIDDLE 60S ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, EXCEPT IN DELAWARE AND
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND WHERE THE BAYS SHOULD HELP KEEP DEW POINT
READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT IS ANTICIPATED TO RESULT
IN MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES BEING NEAR OR A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE THE
MAXIMUM AIR TEMPERATURES IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY. THE
IMPACT OF THE HIGHER HUMIDITY ON THE DELMARVA SHOULD BRING MAXIMUM
HEAT INDEX VALUES SOLIDLY INTO THE UPPER 90S THERE WITH PERHAPS A
FEW SPOTS HITTING 100, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE CANAL.

WE WILL NOT BE ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY OR AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING
AT THIS TIME SINCE ALL LOCATIONS IN OUR FORECAST AREA ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN JUST BELOW THE ISSUANCE CRITERIA.

A SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH IS EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SOUTHEAST RIDGING GIVING WAY TO A
DEVELOPING TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS BY THE
WEEKEND. A FEW IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
NEXT WEEK PROVIDING CHANCES FOR MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

THURSDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING COLD
FRONT MAY BRING IN MORE CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ADVECTING IN ALOFT TO SPARK SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER DURING THE MORNING HOURS, MOSTLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST, TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM REALLY PEAKING
AS HIGH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT, THOUGH LOW-90S IS NOTHING TO SNEEZE
AT. THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCED VERTICAL MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON
WHICH SHOULD KEEP DEWPOINTS FROM STAYING IN THE LOW-70S, SO
EXPECTING THEM TO MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER-60S...SHOULD KEEP HEAT
INDEX VALUES JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT STILL HAVE SOME TIME
FOR FURTHER ASSESSMENT. BESIDES THE HEAT, THE APPROACH OF THE COLD
FRONT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, WILL TRIGGER MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY IS PREVALENT BUT SHEAR IS ON THE
WEAKER SIDE AS OF NOW BUT DEPENDING ON THE SHEAR AXIS ORIENTATION
TO THE STORMS, WE COULD SEE CELL MERGER OCCUR FORMING A BROKEN
LINE OF STORMS WITH STRONGER WINDS THE MAIN ISSUE. PWATS APPROACH
AND COULD SURPASS 2" SO HEAVY EFFICIENT RAINERS IS ALSO LIKELY
WITH POOR DRAINAGE AND SPOTTY FLASH FLOOD ISSUES POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY - SUNDAY...AS MID-LEVEL TROUGHING BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN BY THE
WEEKEND, THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT BECOMES MORE PARALLEL TO THE UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW...IT LOOKS TO STALL OFFSHORE. IT BEGINS TO SLOW ITS
DEPARTURE EARLY ON FRIDAY SO THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE DRYING OUT. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM BUT THE FRONT SHOULD BE ABLE TO EAT UP THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS AS THE AIRMASS DRIES OUT A BIT. WE LOOK TO BE ON
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGHING SO MOST OF THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY
STAYS TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING US MOSTLY DRY...COULD
BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN DELMARVA CLOSER TO THE
STALLED BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL STILL
REMAIN 90+ DEGREES.

MONDAY -  TUESDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH CLOSER TO
THE REGION BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE 90+ DEGREES WITH A MOISTENING AIRMASS.
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT A PERIOD
OF VFR THIS EVENING BEFORE FOG DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT. THE BEST FOG
POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE AT ILG/MIV/ACY WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS
RESIDE. ACY MAY BE PARTICULARLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FOG/LOW CLOUDS
TONIGHT AS THE GROUND IS WET FROM EARLIER RAINFALL. A PERIOD OF
MVFR VSBYS AND/OR CIGS LIKELY WITH IFR POSSIBLE BETWEEN ABOUT
06-12Z. CONFIDENCE IN FOG LOWERS FARTHER NORTH AND WEST TOWARD
RDG AND ABE AS THEY CURRENTLY RESIDE ON THE DRIER SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY, BUT THE BOUNDARY MAY TRY TO DRIFT NORTHWARD.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS IS IN THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS VERY LOW.

A LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING, BECOMING
S-SW 5-10 KT BY THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...EARLY MORNING FOG/HAZE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...THEN
SCT AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.

FRIDAY - SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

A SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS IS EXPECTED. WAVE
HEIGHTS ON THE OCEAN WILL FAVOR 2 TO 3 FEET WHILE WAVES ON DELAWARE
BAY SHOULD BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY - SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE ON THURSDAY WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COAST ON WEDNESDAY DUE
TO A LONG PERIOD SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL. THE WAVE PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AROUND 10 SECONDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER/KLEIN
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER
RIP CURRENTS...IOVINO/KLEIN




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 282345
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
745 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH THE NEXT
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SLOW MOVING (MAINLY PULSE TYPE) TSTMS ONGOING THIS AFTN FROM THE
EASTERN PIEDMONT TO THE NORTHERN NECK. HAVE SEEN ISOLD CELLS POP
ACROSS SE VA/NE NC AND THE EASTERN SHORE BUT THESE HAVE NOT BE
ABLE TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES. SVR THREAT REMAINS LOW THRU THE
EVENING GIVEN WEAK EFFECTIVE SHEAR (<25KT). MAIN THREAT FROM THESE
STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN DUE TO SLOW STORM
MOTION/TRAINING OF CELLS OVER THE SAME AREAS. DUAL-POL RADAR
ALREADY SHOWING A FEW LOCATIONS IN DINWIDDIE/SOUTHERN CHESTERFIELD
COUNTY WITH UP TO 3-4" OF RAIN THIS AFTN WITH SPOTTER REPORTS
BACKING THIS UP. WILL MAINTAIN HIGHEST POPS 40-70% ACROSS THE
WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FA THRU THE EVENING...WITH 20-30% POPS AT
THE COAST...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET. OTW...PTLY TO MSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MAINLY
IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO EXPAND EASTWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT AFTN CONVECTION WHILE MAX
TEMPS WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES. HAVE CHC POPS (25-30%) ALONG AND
WEST OF I-95. PARTLY SUNNY W/ HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW
90S...WITH LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. MILD WED NIGHT W/ LOW TEMPS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

THURSDAY...
UPR RIDGING RETROGRADES A BIT THURSDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT...CHC POPS (30-50%) WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE AFTN...LOWERING TO ~20% AT THE COAST. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH
INTO THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING
ACROSS FAR SE VA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY. HAVE SOLID
CHANCE POPS (30-50%) MOST AREAS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
THRU MIDDAY FRI...THEN FOCUS CHC POPS ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC
FRIDAY AFTN. DRY WX SHOULD RETURN TO NW AREAS BY LATE MORNING OR
AFTERNOON. LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 80S TO
AROUND 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE SW CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTING ACRS HUDSON BAY
CANADA. GFS/ECMWF INTO BETTER DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT...THEN FLATTEN OUT
SUN WITH A SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACRS THE MID ATLC BY MON.

FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS OVER FAR SRN VA/NC LATE FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND. BEST CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH/MAINLY
NE NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT EVEN HERE WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20-30%
POPS/PRIMARILY FOR THE AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME (TAPERED TO 20% FAR
SRN VA AND DRY ELSEWHERE). DID RAISE POPS A BIT FOR MON DUE TO THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AS THIS IS 5-6
DAYS OUT SO WILL GENLY KEEP POPS ONLY AT 30-40% SOUTH TO 20% NORTH.
KEEPING POPS AROUND 20% ALL AREAS TUE. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE
MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND.
LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE COME TO AN END THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS LEFT IN AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AND SHOULD END
BY 29/0400Z. DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL TODAY AT KRIC AND KSBY...
SHALLOW GROUND FOG AND FEW-SCT CLOUDS AROUND 400FT ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AFTER 29/0900Z AND PERSIST THROUGH 29/1200-1300Z BEFORE
DISSIPATING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO EXPAND EWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT AFTN THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ERN
HALF OF THE AREA (INCLUDING TAF SITES KSBY/KPHF/KORF/KECG)...
HOWEVER THERE IS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND
THE UPPER RIDGE TO KEEP VCSH AT KRIC (INCLUDING AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF INTERSTATE 95). OVERALL SHEAR REMAINS VERY WEAK...
THEREFORE THE MAIN THREAT WITH AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING QUICK REDUCTIONS TO CIGS (MVFR) AND
VISIBILITIES (LIFR TO IFR). A TROUGH CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE
IN THE DAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN IT STALLS ACROSS FAR SE VA
AND THE ERN CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY. MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED INVOF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST WITH
WEAK SFC TROUGHING INLAND ACRS THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. S/SE
WINDS AVG 10-15 KT THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AND WILL DROP OFF TO
S/SW 5-10 KT WED MORNING. MODELS SUGGEST THAT WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE
STRONGER LATE WED AFTN/WED NIGHT AS SFC/LEE TROUGH OVER VA DEEPENS
SLIGHTLY AND HELPS S/SE WINDS AVG AROUND 15 KT IN THE BAY. COULD BE
A FEW HRS WORTH OF 20 KT GUSTS IN THE BAY BUT TOO MARGINAL TO
CONSIDER ANY SCA HEADLINES FOR NOW. WAVES GENLY 1-2 FT IN THE
BAY BUT WILL PROBABLY BUILD TO 2-3 FT WED EVENING. SEAS 2-3 FT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE THU...THEN STALLS SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE WEEK. S/SE WINDS AVG 10-15 KT...TURNING
SSW THU NIGHT. NOT A STRONG COOL SURGE ON FRI AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTH WITH THE FRONT DISSIPATING OVER SRN VA/ERN NC SO WILL KEEP
WINDS IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE. FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO E/SE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...LKB



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 282345
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
745 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH THE NEXT
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SLOW MOVING (MAINLY PULSE TYPE) TSTMS ONGOING THIS AFTN FROM THE
EASTERN PIEDMONT TO THE NORTHERN NECK. HAVE SEEN ISOLD CELLS POP
ACROSS SE VA/NE NC AND THE EASTERN SHORE BUT THESE HAVE NOT BE
ABLE TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES. SVR THREAT REMAINS LOW THRU THE
EVENING GIVEN WEAK EFFECTIVE SHEAR (<25KT). MAIN THREAT FROM THESE
STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN DUE TO SLOW STORM
MOTION/TRAINING OF CELLS OVER THE SAME AREAS. DUAL-POL RADAR
ALREADY SHOWING A FEW LOCATIONS IN DINWIDDIE/SOUTHERN CHESTERFIELD
COUNTY WITH UP TO 3-4" OF RAIN THIS AFTN WITH SPOTTER REPORTS
BACKING THIS UP. WILL MAINTAIN HIGHEST POPS 40-70% ACROSS THE
WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FA THRU THE EVENING...WITH 20-30% POPS AT
THE COAST...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET. OTW...PTLY TO MSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MAINLY
IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO EXPAND EASTWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT AFTN CONVECTION WHILE MAX
TEMPS WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES. HAVE CHC POPS (25-30%) ALONG AND
WEST OF I-95. PARTLY SUNNY W/ HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW
90S...WITH LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. MILD WED NIGHT W/ LOW TEMPS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

THURSDAY...
UPR RIDGING RETROGRADES A BIT THURSDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT...CHC POPS (30-50%) WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE AFTN...LOWERING TO ~20% AT THE COAST. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH
INTO THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING
ACROSS FAR SE VA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY. HAVE SOLID
CHANCE POPS (30-50%) MOST AREAS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
THRU MIDDAY FRI...THEN FOCUS CHC POPS ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC
FRIDAY AFTN. DRY WX SHOULD RETURN TO NW AREAS BY LATE MORNING OR
AFTERNOON. LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 80S TO
AROUND 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE SW CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTING ACRS HUDSON BAY
CANADA. GFS/ECMWF INTO BETTER DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT...THEN FLATTEN OUT
SUN WITH A SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACRS THE MID ATLC BY MON.

FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS OVER FAR SRN VA/NC LATE FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND. BEST CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH/MAINLY
NE NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT EVEN HERE WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20-30%
POPS/PRIMARILY FOR THE AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME (TAPERED TO 20% FAR
SRN VA AND DRY ELSEWHERE). DID RAISE POPS A BIT FOR MON DUE TO THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AS THIS IS 5-6
DAYS OUT SO WILL GENLY KEEP POPS ONLY AT 30-40% SOUTH TO 20% NORTH.
KEEPING POPS AROUND 20% ALL AREAS TUE. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE
MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND.
LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE COME TO AN END THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS LEFT IN AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AND SHOULD END
BY 29/0400Z. DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL TODAY AT KRIC AND KSBY...
SHALLOW GROUND FOG AND FEW-SCT CLOUDS AROUND 400FT ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AFTER 29/0900Z AND PERSIST THROUGH 29/1200-1300Z BEFORE
DISSIPATING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO EXPAND EWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT AFTN THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ERN
HALF OF THE AREA (INCLUDING TAF SITES KSBY/KPHF/KORF/KECG)...
HOWEVER THERE IS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND
THE UPPER RIDGE TO KEEP VCSH AT KRIC (INCLUDING AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF INTERSTATE 95). OVERALL SHEAR REMAINS VERY WEAK...
THEREFORE THE MAIN THREAT WITH AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING QUICK REDUCTIONS TO CIGS (MVFR) AND
VISIBILITIES (LIFR TO IFR). A TROUGH CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE
IN THE DAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN IT STALLS ACROSS FAR SE VA
AND THE ERN CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY. MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED INVOF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST WITH
WEAK SFC TROUGHING INLAND ACRS THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. S/SE
WINDS AVG 10-15 KT THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AND WILL DROP OFF TO
S/SW 5-10 KT WED MORNING. MODELS SUGGEST THAT WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE
STRONGER LATE WED AFTN/WED NIGHT AS SFC/LEE TROUGH OVER VA DEEPENS
SLIGHTLY AND HELPS S/SE WINDS AVG AROUND 15 KT IN THE BAY. COULD BE
A FEW HRS WORTH OF 20 KT GUSTS IN THE BAY BUT TOO MARGINAL TO
CONSIDER ANY SCA HEADLINES FOR NOW. WAVES GENLY 1-2 FT IN THE
BAY BUT WILL PROBABLY BUILD TO 2-3 FT WED EVENING. SEAS 2-3 FT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE THU...THEN STALLS SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE WEEK. S/SE WINDS AVG 10-15 KT...TURNING
SSW THU NIGHT. NOT A STRONG COOL SURGE ON FRI AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTH WITH THE FRONT DISSIPATING OVER SRN VA/ERN NC SO WILL KEEP
WINDS IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE. FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO E/SE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...LKB



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 282345
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
745 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH THE NEXT
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SLOW MOVING (MAINLY PULSE TYPE) TSTMS ONGOING THIS AFTN FROM THE
EASTERN PIEDMONT TO THE NORTHERN NECK. HAVE SEEN ISOLD CELLS POP
ACROSS SE VA/NE NC AND THE EASTERN SHORE BUT THESE HAVE NOT BE
ABLE TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES. SVR THREAT REMAINS LOW THRU THE
EVENING GIVEN WEAK EFFECTIVE SHEAR (<25KT). MAIN THREAT FROM THESE
STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN DUE TO SLOW STORM
MOTION/TRAINING OF CELLS OVER THE SAME AREAS. DUAL-POL RADAR
ALREADY SHOWING A FEW LOCATIONS IN DINWIDDIE/SOUTHERN CHESTERFIELD
COUNTY WITH UP TO 3-4" OF RAIN THIS AFTN WITH SPOTTER REPORTS
BACKING THIS UP. WILL MAINTAIN HIGHEST POPS 40-70% ACROSS THE
WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FA THRU THE EVENING...WITH 20-30% POPS AT
THE COAST...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET. OTW...PTLY TO MSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MAINLY
IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO EXPAND EASTWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT AFTN CONVECTION WHILE MAX
TEMPS WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES. HAVE CHC POPS (25-30%) ALONG AND
WEST OF I-95. PARTLY SUNNY W/ HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW
90S...WITH LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. MILD WED NIGHT W/ LOW TEMPS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

THURSDAY...
UPR RIDGING RETROGRADES A BIT THURSDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT...CHC POPS (30-50%) WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE AFTN...LOWERING TO ~20% AT THE COAST. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH
INTO THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING
ACROSS FAR SE VA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY. HAVE SOLID
CHANCE POPS (30-50%) MOST AREAS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
THRU MIDDAY FRI...THEN FOCUS CHC POPS ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC
FRIDAY AFTN. DRY WX SHOULD RETURN TO NW AREAS BY LATE MORNING OR
AFTERNOON. LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 80S TO
AROUND 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE SW CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTING ACRS HUDSON BAY
CANADA. GFS/ECMWF INTO BETTER DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT...THEN FLATTEN OUT
SUN WITH A SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACRS THE MID ATLC BY MON.

FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS OVER FAR SRN VA/NC LATE FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND. BEST CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH/MAINLY
NE NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT EVEN HERE WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20-30%
POPS/PRIMARILY FOR THE AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME (TAPERED TO 20% FAR
SRN VA AND DRY ELSEWHERE). DID RAISE POPS A BIT FOR MON DUE TO THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AS THIS IS 5-6
DAYS OUT SO WILL GENLY KEEP POPS ONLY AT 30-40% SOUTH TO 20% NORTH.
KEEPING POPS AROUND 20% ALL AREAS TUE. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE
MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND.
LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE COME TO AN END THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS LEFT IN AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AND SHOULD END
BY 29/0400Z. DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL TODAY AT KRIC AND KSBY...
SHALLOW GROUND FOG AND FEW-SCT CLOUDS AROUND 400FT ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AFTER 29/0900Z AND PERSIST THROUGH 29/1200-1300Z BEFORE
DISSIPATING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO EXPAND EWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT AFTN THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ERN
HALF OF THE AREA (INCLUDING TAF SITES KSBY/KPHF/KORF/KECG)...
HOWEVER THERE IS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND
THE UPPER RIDGE TO KEEP VCSH AT KRIC (INCLUDING AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF INTERSTATE 95). OVERALL SHEAR REMAINS VERY WEAK...
THEREFORE THE MAIN THREAT WITH AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING QUICK REDUCTIONS TO CIGS (MVFR) AND
VISIBILITIES (LIFR TO IFR). A TROUGH CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE
IN THE DAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN IT STALLS ACROSS FAR SE VA
AND THE ERN CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY. MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED INVOF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST WITH
WEAK SFC TROUGHING INLAND ACRS THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. S/SE
WINDS AVG 10-15 KT THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AND WILL DROP OFF TO
S/SW 5-10 KT WED MORNING. MODELS SUGGEST THAT WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE
STRONGER LATE WED AFTN/WED NIGHT AS SFC/LEE TROUGH OVER VA DEEPENS
SLIGHTLY AND HELPS S/SE WINDS AVG AROUND 15 KT IN THE BAY. COULD BE
A FEW HRS WORTH OF 20 KT GUSTS IN THE BAY BUT TOO MARGINAL TO
CONSIDER ANY SCA HEADLINES FOR NOW. WAVES GENLY 1-2 FT IN THE
BAY BUT WILL PROBABLY BUILD TO 2-3 FT WED EVENING. SEAS 2-3 FT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE THU...THEN STALLS SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE WEEK. S/SE WINDS AVG 10-15 KT...TURNING
SSW THU NIGHT. NOT A STRONG COOL SURGE ON FRI AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTH WITH THE FRONT DISSIPATING OVER SRN VA/ERN NC SO WILL KEEP
WINDS IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE. FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO E/SE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...LKB



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 282345
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
745 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH THE NEXT
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SLOW MOVING (MAINLY PULSE TYPE) TSTMS ONGOING THIS AFTN FROM THE
EASTERN PIEDMONT TO THE NORTHERN NECK. HAVE SEEN ISOLD CELLS POP
ACROSS SE VA/NE NC AND THE EASTERN SHORE BUT THESE HAVE NOT BE
ABLE TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES. SVR THREAT REMAINS LOW THRU THE
EVENING GIVEN WEAK EFFECTIVE SHEAR (<25KT). MAIN THREAT FROM THESE
STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN DUE TO SLOW STORM
MOTION/TRAINING OF CELLS OVER THE SAME AREAS. DUAL-POL RADAR
ALREADY SHOWING A FEW LOCATIONS IN DINWIDDIE/SOUTHERN CHESTERFIELD
COUNTY WITH UP TO 3-4" OF RAIN THIS AFTN WITH SPOTTER REPORTS
BACKING THIS UP. WILL MAINTAIN HIGHEST POPS 40-70% ACROSS THE
WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FA THRU THE EVENING...WITH 20-30% POPS AT
THE COAST...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET. OTW...PTLY TO MSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MAINLY
IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO EXPAND EASTWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT AFTN CONVECTION WHILE MAX
TEMPS WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES. HAVE CHC POPS (25-30%) ALONG AND
WEST OF I-95. PARTLY SUNNY W/ HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW
90S...WITH LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. MILD WED NIGHT W/ LOW TEMPS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

THURSDAY...
UPR RIDGING RETROGRADES A BIT THURSDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT...CHC POPS (30-50%) WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE AFTN...LOWERING TO ~20% AT THE COAST. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH
INTO THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING
ACROSS FAR SE VA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY. HAVE SOLID
CHANCE POPS (30-50%) MOST AREAS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
THRU MIDDAY FRI...THEN FOCUS CHC POPS ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC
FRIDAY AFTN. DRY WX SHOULD RETURN TO NW AREAS BY LATE MORNING OR
AFTERNOON. LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 80S TO
AROUND 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE SW CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTING ACRS HUDSON BAY
CANADA. GFS/ECMWF INTO BETTER DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT...THEN FLATTEN OUT
SUN WITH A SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACRS THE MID ATLC BY MON.

FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS OVER FAR SRN VA/NC LATE FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND. BEST CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH/MAINLY
NE NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT EVEN HERE WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20-30%
POPS/PRIMARILY FOR THE AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME (TAPERED TO 20% FAR
SRN VA AND DRY ELSEWHERE). DID RAISE POPS A BIT FOR MON DUE TO THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AS THIS IS 5-6
DAYS OUT SO WILL GENLY KEEP POPS ONLY AT 30-40% SOUTH TO 20% NORTH.
KEEPING POPS AROUND 20% ALL AREAS TUE. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE
MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND.
LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE COME TO AN END THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS LEFT IN AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AND SHOULD END
BY 29/0400Z. DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL TODAY AT KRIC AND KSBY...
SHALLOW GROUND FOG AND FEW-SCT CLOUDS AROUND 400FT ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AFTER 29/0900Z AND PERSIST THROUGH 29/1200-1300Z BEFORE
DISSIPATING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO EXPAND EWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT AFTN THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ERN
HALF OF THE AREA (INCLUDING TAF SITES KSBY/KPHF/KORF/KECG)...
HOWEVER THERE IS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND
THE UPPER RIDGE TO KEEP VCSH AT KRIC (INCLUDING AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF INTERSTATE 95). OVERALL SHEAR REMAINS VERY WEAK...
THEREFORE THE MAIN THREAT WITH AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING QUICK REDUCTIONS TO CIGS (MVFR) AND
VISIBILITIES (LIFR TO IFR). A TROUGH CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE
IN THE DAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN IT STALLS ACROSS FAR SE VA
AND THE ERN CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY. MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED INVOF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST WITH
WEAK SFC TROUGHING INLAND ACRS THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. S/SE
WINDS AVG 10-15 KT THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AND WILL DROP OFF TO
S/SW 5-10 KT WED MORNING. MODELS SUGGEST THAT WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE
STRONGER LATE WED AFTN/WED NIGHT AS SFC/LEE TROUGH OVER VA DEEPENS
SLIGHTLY AND HELPS S/SE WINDS AVG AROUND 15 KT IN THE BAY. COULD BE
A FEW HRS WORTH OF 20 KT GUSTS IN THE BAY BUT TOO MARGINAL TO
CONSIDER ANY SCA HEADLINES FOR NOW. WAVES GENLY 1-2 FT IN THE
BAY BUT WILL PROBABLY BUILD TO 2-3 FT WED EVENING. SEAS 2-3 FT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE THU...THEN STALLS SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE WEEK. S/SE WINDS AVG 10-15 KT...TURNING
SSW THU NIGHT. NOT A STRONG COOL SURGE ON FRI AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTH WITH THE FRONT DISSIPATING OVER SRN VA/ERN NC SO WILL KEEP
WINDS IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE. FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO E/SE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...LKB



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 282345
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
745 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH THE NEXT
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SLOW MOVING (MAINLY PULSE TYPE) TSTMS ONGOING THIS AFTN FROM THE
EASTERN PIEDMONT TO THE NORTHERN NECK. HAVE SEEN ISOLD CELLS POP
ACROSS SE VA/NE NC AND THE EASTERN SHORE BUT THESE HAVE NOT BE
ABLE TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES. SVR THREAT REMAINS LOW THRU THE
EVENING GIVEN WEAK EFFECTIVE SHEAR (<25KT). MAIN THREAT FROM THESE
STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN DUE TO SLOW STORM
MOTION/TRAINING OF CELLS OVER THE SAME AREAS. DUAL-POL RADAR
ALREADY SHOWING A FEW LOCATIONS IN DINWIDDIE/SOUTHERN CHESTERFIELD
COUNTY WITH UP TO 3-4" OF RAIN THIS AFTN WITH SPOTTER REPORTS
BACKING THIS UP. WILL MAINTAIN HIGHEST POPS 40-70% ACROSS THE
WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FA THRU THE EVENING...WITH 20-30% POPS AT
THE COAST...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET. OTW...PTLY TO MSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MAINLY
IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO EXPAND EASTWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT AFTN CONVECTION WHILE MAX
TEMPS WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES. HAVE CHC POPS (25-30%) ALONG AND
WEST OF I-95. PARTLY SUNNY W/ HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW
90S...WITH LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. MILD WED NIGHT W/ LOW TEMPS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

THURSDAY...
UPR RIDGING RETROGRADES A BIT THURSDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT...CHC POPS (30-50%) WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE AFTN...LOWERING TO ~20% AT THE COAST. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH
INTO THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING
ACROSS FAR SE VA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY. HAVE SOLID
CHANCE POPS (30-50%) MOST AREAS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
THRU MIDDAY FRI...THEN FOCUS CHC POPS ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC
FRIDAY AFTN. DRY WX SHOULD RETURN TO NW AREAS BY LATE MORNING OR
AFTERNOON. LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 80S TO
AROUND 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE SW CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTING ACRS HUDSON BAY
CANADA. GFS/ECMWF INTO BETTER DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT...THEN FLATTEN OUT
SUN WITH A SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACRS THE MID ATLC BY MON.

FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS OVER FAR SRN VA/NC LATE FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND. BEST CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH/MAINLY
NE NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT EVEN HERE WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20-30%
POPS/PRIMARILY FOR THE AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME (TAPERED TO 20% FAR
SRN VA AND DRY ELSEWHERE). DID RAISE POPS A BIT FOR MON DUE TO THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AS THIS IS 5-6
DAYS OUT SO WILL GENLY KEEP POPS ONLY AT 30-40% SOUTH TO 20% NORTH.
KEEPING POPS AROUND 20% ALL AREAS TUE. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE
MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND.
LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE COME TO AN END THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS LEFT IN AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AND SHOULD END
BY 29/0400Z. DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL TODAY AT KRIC AND KSBY...
SHALLOW GROUND FOG AND FEW-SCT CLOUDS AROUND 400FT ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AFTER 29/0900Z AND PERSIST THROUGH 29/1200-1300Z BEFORE
DISSIPATING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO EXPAND EWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT AFTN THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ERN
HALF OF THE AREA (INCLUDING TAF SITES KSBY/KPHF/KORF/KECG)...
HOWEVER THERE IS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND
THE UPPER RIDGE TO KEEP VCSH AT KRIC (INCLUDING AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF INTERSTATE 95). OVERALL SHEAR REMAINS VERY WEAK...
THEREFORE THE MAIN THREAT WITH AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING QUICK REDUCTIONS TO CIGS (MVFR) AND
VISIBILITIES (LIFR TO IFR). A TROUGH CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE
IN THE DAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN IT STALLS ACROSS FAR SE VA
AND THE ERN CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY. MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED INVOF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST WITH
WEAK SFC TROUGHING INLAND ACRS THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. S/SE
WINDS AVG 10-15 KT THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AND WILL DROP OFF TO
S/SW 5-10 KT WED MORNING. MODELS SUGGEST THAT WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE
STRONGER LATE WED AFTN/WED NIGHT AS SFC/LEE TROUGH OVER VA DEEPENS
SLIGHTLY AND HELPS S/SE WINDS AVG AROUND 15 KT IN THE BAY. COULD BE
A FEW HRS WORTH OF 20 KT GUSTS IN THE BAY BUT TOO MARGINAL TO
CONSIDER ANY SCA HEADLINES FOR NOW. WAVES GENLY 1-2 FT IN THE
BAY BUT WILL PROBABLY BUILD TO 2-3 FT WED EVENING. SEAS 2-3 FT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE THU...THEN STALLS SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE WEEK. S/SE WINDS AVG 10-15 KT...TURNING
SSW THU NIGHT. NOT A STRONG COOL SURGE ON FRI AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTH WITH THE FRONT DISSIPATING OVER SRN VA/ERN NC SO WILL KEEP
WINDS IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE. FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO E/SE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...LKB



000
FXUS61 KPHI 282215
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
615 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY GIVING WAY TO A
WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT MAY CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A
BRIEF SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE. AFTER THE RESPITE OF HIGH PRESSURE A
STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED POPS, WEATHER AND SKY GRIDS BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND
SATELLITE TRENDS JUST AFTER 530 PM. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WAS
LOCATED NEAR I-95 LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS
EARLY THIS EVENING STILL LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY, WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND INSTABILITY
EXISTS. THE COVERAGE WILL BE MAINLY ISOLATED. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IS BEING FOCUSED ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT IN SOUTHERN
NJ AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE. HIGHER POPS WERE PLACED IN THERE THRU
SUNSET. THESE STORMS ARE SLOW-MOVERS (AS ALL STORMS HAVE BEEN THIS
WEEK), SO THERE IS ONCE AGAIN A LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
ISOLATED 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR CAPABLE OF POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

OTHERWISE, SCATTERED CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE GRADUALLY DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. WHILE SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND LIGHT FOG MAY
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IT SHOULD NOT
BE AS WIDESPREAD AS IT WAS THIS MORNING.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL
STATES UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO EASTERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN
QUEBEC TONIGHT. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP OUR AREA RAIN-FREE FOR
TONIGHT.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH SURFACE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EASTWARD AND IT
SHOULD APPROACH OUR REGION LATE ON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EVEN LOWER THAN IT
WAS TODAY. WE ARE EXPECTING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
SOME CIRRUS OVERHEAD ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CUMULUS.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 90 TO 95 IN MUCH OF
OUR REGION. READINGS SHOULD GET NO HIGHER THAN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
80S IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

IT APPEARS AS THOUGH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE FROM
ALOFT FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DEW POINT READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
FAVOR THE MIDDLE 60S ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, EXCEPT IN DELAWARE AND
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND WHERE THE BAYS SHOULD HELP KEEP DEW POINT
READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT IS ANTICIPATED TO RESULT
IN MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES BEING NEAR OR A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE THE
MAXIMUM AIR TEMPERATURES IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY. THE
IMPACT OF THE HIGHER HUMIDITY ON THE DELMARVA SHOULD BRING MAXIMUM
HEAT INDEX VALUES SOLIDLY INTO THE UPPER 90S THERE WITH PERHAPS A
FEW SPOTS HITTING 100, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE CANAL.

WE WILL NOT BE ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY OR AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING
AT THIS TIME SINCE ALL LOCATIONS IN OUR FORECAST AREA ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN JUST BELOW THE ISSUANCE CRITERIA.

A SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH IS EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SOUTHEAST RIDGING GIVING WAY TO A
DEVELOPING TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS BY THE
WEEKEND. A FEW IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
NEXT WEEK PROVIDING CHANCES FOR MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

THURSDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING COLD
FRONT MAY BRING IN MORE CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ADVECTING IN ALOFT TO SPARK SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER DURING THE MORNING HOURS, MOSTLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST, TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM REALLY PEAKING
AS HIGH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT, THOUGH LOW-90S IS NOTHING TO SNEEZE
AT. THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCED VERTICAL MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON
WHICH SHOULD KEEP DEWPOINTS FROM STAYING IN THE LOW-70S, SO
EXPECTING THEM TO MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER-60S...SHOULD KEEP HEAT
INDEX VALUES JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT STILL HAVE SOME TIME
FOR FURTHER ASSESSMENT. BESIDES THE HEAT, THE APPROACH OF THE COLD
FRONT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, WILL TRIGGER MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY IS PREVALENT BUT SHEAR IS ON THE
WEAKER SIDE AS OF NOW BUT DEPENDING ON THE SHEAR AXIS ORIENTATION
TO THE STORMS, WE COULD SEE CELL MERGER OCCUR FORMING A BROKEN
LINE OF STORMS WITH STRONGER WINDS THE MAIN ISSUE. PWATS APPROACH
AND COULD SURPASS 2" SO HEAVY EFFICIENT RAINERS IS ALSO LIKELY
WITH POOR DRAINAGE AND SPOTTY FLASH FLOOD ISSUES POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY - SUNDAY...AS MID-LEVEL TROUGHING BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN BY THE
WEEKEND, THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT BECOMES MORE PARALLEL TO THE UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW...IT LOOKS TO STALL OFFSHORE. IT BEGINS TO SLOW ITS
DEPARTURE EARLY ON FRIDAY SO THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE DRYING OUT. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM BUT THE FRONT SHOULD BE ABLE TO EAT UP THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS AS THE AIRMASS DRIES OUT A BIT. WE LOOK TO BE ON
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGHING SO MOST OF THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY
STAYS TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING US MOSTLY DRY...COULD
BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN DELMARVA CLOSER TO THE
STALLED BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL STILL
REMAIN 90+ DEGREES.

MONDAY -  TUESDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH CLOSER TO
THE REGION BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE 90+ DEGREES WITH A MOISTENING AIRMASS.
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND NEARBY STORMS CURRENTLY IMPACTING ACY WITH
A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR VSBYS. OTHERWISE, VCSH MENTIONED AT ILG AND
MIV THRU 00Z.

A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT. WHILE SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS, HAZE AND LIGHT FOG REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, IT SHOULD NOT BE NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD AS IT
WAS THIS MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS IS IN THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS VERY LOW.

A LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WIND, GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...EARLY MORNING FOG/HAZE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...THEN
SCT AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.

FRIDAY - SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

A SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS IS EXPECTED. WAVE
HEIGHTS ON THE OCEAN WILL FAVOR 2 TO 3 FEET WHILE WAVES ON DELAWARE
BAY SHOULD BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY - SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE ON THURSDAY WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COAST INTO THIS EVENING
DUE TO A LONG PERIOD SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL. THE WAVE PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AROUND 10 SECONDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER/KLEIN
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER
RIP CURRENTS...



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 282142 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
542 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES ON THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SLOW MOVING AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUES TO
COVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WV. AS THE SUN LOWERS IN THE
SKY...INTENSITY OF THE RAIN IS SLOWLY DECREASING. WILL LEAVE IN
POPS TO COVER THE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THE
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE. THE DAYTIME CU WILL DISSIPATE
WITH SUNSET...AND PASSING CIRRUS OVERNIGHT WILL PREVENT A CRYSTAL
CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN UPDATED WITH LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BROKEN RECORD FORECAST WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
ISOLATED STORMS POPPING OVER THE RIDGES AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN WV AND MD. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND EXIT THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW WARM TEMPERATURES AND WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT...AND
WITHOUT THE ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY THAT WOULD COME WITH A DAYTIME
FRONTAL PASSAGE...ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS IF ANY WILL BE ISOLATED.

DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND HEIGHTS ALOFT DECREASE IN RESPONSE TO A
STRENGTHENING WESTERN CONUS RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGING UNDER A BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
KEEP MAINLY DRY AND SEASONALLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH INCLUDED UNMENTIONABLE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SATURDAY AS A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE CROSSES. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS
PROGGED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOLLOWED
CLOSE TO THE ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT INDIVIDUAL
MODEL DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH DIURNAL CU AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER WEAK SURFACE RIDGING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY
COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 282142 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
542 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES ON THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SLOW MOVING AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUES TO
COVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WV. AS THE SUN LOWERS IN THE
SKY...INTENSITY OF THE RAIN IS SLOWLY DECREASING. WILL LEAVE IN
POPS TO COVER THE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THE
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE. THE DAYTIME CU WILL DISSIPATE
WITH SUNSET...AND PASSING CIRRUS OVERNIGHT WILL PREVENT A CRYSTAL
CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN UPDATED WITH LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BROKEN RECORD FORECAST WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
ISOLATED STORMS POPPING OVER THE RIDGES AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN WV AND MD. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND EXIT THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW WARM TEMPERATURES AND WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT...AND
WITHOUT THE ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY THAT WOULD COME WITH A DAYTIME
FRONTAL PASSAGE...ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS IF ANY WILL BE ISOLATED.

DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND HEIGHTS ALOFT DECREASE IN RESPONSE TO A
STRENGTHENING WESTERN CONUS RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGING UNDER A BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
KEEP MAINLY DRY AND SEASONALLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH INCLUDED UNMENTIONABLE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SATURDAY AS A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE CROSSES. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS
PROGGED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOLLOWED
CLOSE TO THE ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT INDIVIDUAL
MODEL DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH DIURNAL CU AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER WEAK SURFACE RIDGING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY
COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 282007
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
407 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH THE NEXT
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SLOW MOVING (MAINLY PULSE TYPE) TSTMS ONGOING THIS AFTN FROM THE
EASTERN PIEDMONT TO THE NORTHERN NECK. HAVE SEEN ISOLD CELLS POP
ACROSS SE VA/NE NC AND THE EASTERN SHORE BUT THESE HAVE NOT BE
ABLE TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES. SVR THREAT REMAINS LOW THRU THE
EVENING GIVEN WEAK EFFECTIVE SHEAR (<25KT). MAIN THREAT FROM THESE
STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN DUE TO SLOW STORM
MOTION/TRAINING OF CELLS OVER THE SAME AREAS. DUAL-POL RADAR
ALREADY SHOWING A FEW LOCATIONS IN DINWIDDIE/SOUTHERN CHESTERFIELD
COUNTY WITH UP TO 3-4" OF RAIN THIS AFTN WITH SPOTTER REPORTS
BACKING THIS UP. WILL MAINTAIN HIGHEST POPS 40-70% ACROSS THE
WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FA THRU THE EVENING...WITH 20-30% POPS AT
THE COAST...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET. OTW...PTLY TO MSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MAINLY
IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO EXPAND EASTWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT AFTN CONVECTION WHILE MAX
TEMPS WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES. HAVE CHC POPS (25-30%) ALONG AND
WEST OF I-95. PARTLY SUNNY W/ HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW
90S...WITH LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. MILD WED NIGHT W/ LOW TEMPS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

THURSDAY...
UPR RIDGING RETROGRADES A BIT THURSDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT...CHC POPS (30-50%) WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE AFTN...LOWERING TO ~20% AT THE COAST. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH
INTO THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING
ACROSS FAR SE VA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY. HAVE SOLID
CHANCE POPS (30-50%) MOST AREAS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
THRU MIDDAY FRI...THEN FOCUS CHC POPS ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC
FRIDAY AFTN. DRY WX SHOULD RETURN TO NW AREAS BY LATE MORNING OR
AFTERNOON. LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 80S TO
AROUND 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE SW CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTING ACRS HUDSON BAY
CANADA. GFS/ECMWF INTO BETTER DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT...THEN FLATTEN OUT
SUN WITH A SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACRS THE MID ATLC BY MON.

FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS OVER FAR SRN VA/NC LATE FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND. BEST CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH/MAINLY
NE NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT EVEN HERE WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20-30%
POPS/PRIMARILY FOR THE AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME (TAPERED TO 20% FAR
SRN VA AND DRY ELSEWHERE). DID RAISE POPS A BIT FOR MON DUE TO THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AS THIS IS 5-6
DAYS OUT SO WILL GENLY KEEP POPS ONLY AT 30-40% SOUTH TO 20% NORTH.
KEEPING POPS AROUND 20% ALL AREAS TUE. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE
MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND.
LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. AREAS OF SHWRS/TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED MAINLY FROM
KRIC/KOFP SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD. MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS
IS HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.
ELSEWHERE...SHWRS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED...AND HAVE
KEPT ALL TERMINALS DRY EXCEPT KRIC...AND KORF...WHERE NEABY SHWR
SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL BEFORE 19Z. SOME FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WHERE RAIN FALLS...WITH KRIC THE ONLY TERMINAL
CURRENTLY AT RISK OF FOG. MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED WED/THU... AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WESTWARD INTO THE REGION. ISOLATED
SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE WED AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ORGANIZATION EXPECTED. NEXT CHC FOR MORE NUMEROUS SHWRS/TSTMS
AND ASSOCIATED LOWER CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL BE LATE THU INTO FRI WHEN
A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO AND ACRS THE AREA.

MAINLY VFR FLYING WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE SAT-MON EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST WITH
WEAK SFC TROUGHING INLAND ACRS THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. S/SE
WINDS AVG 10-15 KT THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AND WILL DROP OFF TO
S/SW 5-10 KT WED MORNING. MODELS SUGGEST THAT WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE
STRONGER LATE WED AFTN/WED NIGHT AS SFC/LEE TROUGH OVER VA DEEPENS
SLIGHTLY AND HELPS S/SE WINDS AVG AROUND 15 KT IN THE BAY. COULD BE
A FEW HRS WORTH OF 20 KT GUSTS IN THE BAY BUT TOO MARGINAL TO
CONSIDER ANY SCA HEADLINES FOR NOW. WAVES GENLY 1-2 FT IN THE
BAY BUT WILL PROBABLY BUILD TO 2-3 FT WED EVENING. SEAS 2-3 FT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE THU...THEN STALLS SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE WEEK. S/SE WINDS AVG 10-15 KT...TURNING
SSW THU NIGHT. NOT A STRONG COOL SURGE ON FRI AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTH WITH THE FRONT DISSIPATING OVER SRN VA/ERN NC SO WILL KEEP
WINDS IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE. FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO E/SE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...TMG/WRS
MARINE...LKB



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 282007
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
407 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH THE NEXT
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SLOW MOVING (MAINLY PULSE TYPE) TSTMS ONGOING THIS AFTN FROM THE
EASTERN PIEDMONT TO THE NORTHERN NECK. HAVE SEEN ISOLD CELLS POP
ACROSS SE VA/NE NC AND THE EASTERN SHORE BUT THESE HAVE NOT BE
ABLE TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES. SVR THREAT REMAINS LOW THRU THE
EVENING GIVEN WEAK EFFECTIVE SHEAR (<25KT). MAIN THREAT FROM THESE
STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN DUE TO SLOW STORM
MOTION/TRAINING OF CELLS OVER THE SAME AREAS. DUAL-POL RADAR
ALREADY SHOWING A FEW LOCATIONS IN DINWIDDIE/SOUTHERN CHESTERFIELD
COUNTY WITH UP TO 3-4" OF RAIN THIS AFTN WITH SPOTTER REPORTS
BACKING THIS UP. WILL MAINTAIN HIGHEST POPS 40-70% ACROSS THE
WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FA THRU THE EVENING...WITH 20-30% POPS AT
THE COAST...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET. OTW...PTLY TO MSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MAINLY
IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO EXPAND EASTWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT AFTN CONVECTION WHILE MAX
TEMPS WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES. HAVE CHC POPS (25-30%) ALONG AND
WEST OF I-95. PARTLY SUNNY W/ HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW
90S...WITH LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. MILD WED NIGHT W/ LOW TEMPS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

THURSDAY...
UPR RIDGING RETROGRADES A BIT THURSDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT...CHC POPS (30-50%) WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE AFTN...LOWERING TO ~20% AT THE COAST. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH
INTO THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING
ACROSS FAR SE VA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY. HAVE SOLID
CHANCE POPS (30-50%) MOST AREAS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
THRU MIDDAY FRI...THEN FOCUS CHC POPS ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC
FRIDAY AFTN. DRY WX SHOULD RETURN TO NW AREAS BY LATE MORNING OR
AFTERNOON. LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 80S TO
AROUND 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE SW CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTING ACRS HUDSON BAY
CANADA. GFS/ECMWF INTO BETTER DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT...THEN FLATTEN OUT
SUN WITH A SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACRS THE MID ATLC BY MON.

FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS OVER FAR SRN VA/NC LATE FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND. BEST CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH/MAINLY
NE NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT EVEN HERE WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20-30%
POPS/PRIMARILY FOR THE AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME (TAPERED TO 20% FAR
SRN VA AND DRY ELSEWHERE). DID RAISE POPS A BIT FOR MON DUE TO THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AS THIS IS 5-6
DAYS OUT SO WILL GENLY KEEP POPS ONLY AT 30-40% SOUTH TO 20% NORTH.
KEEPING POPS AROUND 20% ALL AREAS TUE. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE
MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND.
LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. AREAS OF SHWRS/TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED MAINLY FROM
KRIC/KOFP SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD. MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS
IS HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.
ELSEWHERE...SHWRS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED...AND HAVE
KEPT ALL TERMINALS DRY EXCEPT KRIC...AND KORF...WHERE NEABY SHWR
SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL BEFORE 19Z. SOME FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WHERE RAIN FALLS...WITH KRIC THE ONLY TERMINAL
CURRENTLY AT RISK OF FOG. MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED WED/THU... AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WESTWARD INTO THE REGION. ISOLATED
SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE WED AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ORGANIZATION EXPECTED. NEXT CHC FOR MORE NUMEROUS SHWRS/TSTMS
AND ASSOCIATED LOWER CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL BE LATE THU INTO FRI WHEN
A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO AND ACRS THE AREA.

MAINLY VFR FLYING WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE SAT-MON EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST WITH
WEAK SFC TROUGHING INLAND ACRS THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. S/SE
WINDS AVG 10-15 KT THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AND WILL DROP OFF TO
S/SW 5-10 KT WED MORNING. MODELS SUGGEST THAT WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE
STRONGER LATE WED AFTN/WED NIGHT AS SFC/LEE TROUGH OVER VA DEEPENS
SLIGHTLY AND HELPS S/SE WINDS AVG AROUND 15 KT IN THE BAY. COULD BE
A FEW HRS WORTH OF 20 KT GUSTS IN THE BAY BUT TOO MARGINAL TO
CONSIDER ANY SCA HEADLINES FOR NOW. WAVES GENLY 1-2 FT IN THE
BAY BUT WILL PROBABLY BUILD TO 2-3 FT WED EVENING. SEAS 2-3 FT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE THU...THEN STALLS SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE WEEK. S/SE WINDS AVG 10-15 KT...TURNING
SSW THU NIGHT. NOT A STRONG COOL SURGE ON FRI AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTH WITH THE FRONT DISSIPATING OVER SRN VA/ERN NC SO WILL KEEP
WINDS IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE. FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO E/SE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...TMG/WRS
MARINE...LKB




000
FXUS61 KPHI 281957
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
357 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY GIVING WAY TO A
WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT MAY CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A
BRIEF SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE. AFTER THE RESPITE OF HIGH PRESSURE A
STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY, DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE SEA BREEZE AND BAY BREEZE FRONTS
SHOULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED CONVECTION. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY REMAIN MODERATELY
UNSTABLE IN THAT AREA WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES IN THE 800 TO
1200 J/KG RANGE.

OTHERWISE, SCATTERED CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE GRADUALLY DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. WHILE SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND LIGHT FOG MAY
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IT SHOULD NOT
BE AS WIDESPREAD AS IT WAS THIS MORNING.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL
STATES UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO EASTERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN
QUEBEC TONIGHT. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP OUR AREA RAIN-FREE FOR
TONIGHT.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH SURFACE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EASTWARD AND IT
SHOULD APPROACH OUR REGION LATE ON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EVEN LOWER THAN IT
WAS TODAY. WE ARE EXPECTING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
SOME CIRRUS OVERHEAD ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CUMULUS.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 90 TO 95 IN MUCH OF
OUR REGION. READINGS SHOULD GET NO HIGHER THAN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
80S IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

IT APPEARS AS THOUGH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE FROM
ALOFT FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DEW POINT READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
FAVOR THE MIDDLE 60S ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, EXCEPT IN DELAWARE AND
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND WHERE THE BAYS SHOULD HELP KEEP DEW POINT
READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT IS ANTICIPATED TO RESULT
IN MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES BEING NEAR OR A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE THE
MAXIMUM AIR TEMPERATURES IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY. THE
IMPACT OF THE HIGHER HUMIDITY ON THE DELMARVA SHOULD BRING MAXIMUM
HEAT INDEX VALUES SOLIDLY INTO THE UPPER 90S THERE WITH PERHAPS A
FEW SPOTS HITTING 100, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE CANAL.

WE WILL NOT BE ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY OR AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING
AT THIS TIME SINCE ALL LOCATIONS IN OUR FORECAST AREA ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN JUST BELOW THE ISSUANCE CRITERIA.

A SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH IS EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SOUTHEAST RIDGING GIVING WAY TO A
DEVELOPING TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS BY THE
WEEKEND. A FEW IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
NEXT WEEK PROVIDING CHANCES FOR MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

THURSDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING COLD
FRONT MAY BRING IN MORE CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ADVECTING IN ALOFT TO SPARK SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER DURING THE MORNING HOURS, MOSTLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST, TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM REALLY PEAKING
AS HIGH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT, THOUGH LOW-90S IS NOTHING TO SNEEZE
AT. THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCED VERTICAL MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON
WHICH SHOULD KEEP DEWPOINTS FROM STAYING IN THE LOW-70S, SO
EXPECTING THEM TO MIXOUT INTO THE UPPER-60S...SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDEX
VALUES JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT STILL HAVE SOME TIME FOR
FURTHER ASSESSMENT. BESIDES THE HEAT, THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, WILL TRIGGER MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY IS PREVALENT BUT SHEAR IS ON THE WEAKER
SIDE AS OF NOW BUT DEPENDING ON THE SHEAR AXIS ORIENTATION TO THE
STORMS, WE COULD SEE CELL MERGER OCCUR FORMING A BROKEN LINE OF
STORMS WITH STRONGER WINDS THE MAIN ISSUE. PWATS APPROACH AND COULD
SURPASS 2" SO HEAVY EFFICIENT RAINERS IS ALSO LIKELY WITH POOR
DRAINAGE AND SPOTTY FLASH FLOOD ISSUES POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY - SUNDAY...AS MID-LEVEL TROUGHING BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN BY THE
WEEKEND, THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT BECOMES MORE PARALLEL TO THE UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW...IT LOOKS TO STALL OFFSHORE. IT BEGINS TO SLOW ITS
DEPARTURE EARLY ON FRIDAY SO THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE DRYING OUT. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM BUT THE FRONT SHOULD BE ABLE TO EAT UP THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS AS THE AIRMASS DRIES OUT A BIT. WE LOOK TO BE ON
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGHING SO MOST OF THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY
STAYS TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING US MOSTLY DRY...COULD
BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN DELMARVA CLOSER TO THE
STALLED BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL STILL
REMAIN 90+ DEGREES.

MONDAY -  TUESDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH CLOSER TO
THE REGION BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE 90+ DEGREES WITH A MOISTENING AIRMASS.
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SCATTERED CUMULUS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING.
WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY, DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND. WE WILL INCLUDE VCSH
UNTIL 2300Z FOR KMIV AND KACY.

A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT. WHILE SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS, HAZE AND LIGHT FOG REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, IT SHOULD NOT BE NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD AS IT
WAS THIS MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS IS IN THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS VERY LOW.

A LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WIND, GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...EARLY MORNING FOG/HAZE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...THEN
SCT AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.

FRIDAY - SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

A SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS IS EXPECTED. WAVE
HEIGHTS ON THE OCEAN WILL FAVOR 2 TO 3 FEET WHILE WAVES ON DELAWARE
BAY SHOULD BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY - SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE ON THURSDAY WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COAST INTO THIS EVENING
DUE TO A LONG PERIOD SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL. THE WAVE PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AROUND 10 SECONDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER
RIP CURRENTS...IOVINO



000
FXUS61 KPHI 281957
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
357 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY GIVING WAY TO A
WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT MAY CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A
BRIEF SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE. AFTER THE RESPITE OF HIGH PRESSURE A
STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY, DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE SEA BREEZE AND BAY BREEZE FRONTS
SHOULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED CONVECTION. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY REMAIN MODERATELY
UNSTABLE IN THAT AREA WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES IN THE 800 TO
1200 J/KG RANGE.

OTHERWISE, SCATTERED CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE GRADUALLY DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. WHILE SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND LIGHT FOG MAY
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IT SHOULD NOT
BE AS WIDESPREAD AS IT WAS THIS MORNING.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL
STATES UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO EASTERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN
QUEBEC TONIGHT. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP OUR AREA RAIN-FREE FOR
TONIGHT.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH SURFACE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EASTWARD AND IT
SHOULD APPROACH OUR REGION LATE ON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EVEN LOWER THAN IT
WAS TODAY. WE ARE EXPECTING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
SOME CIRRUS OVERHEAD ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CUMULUS.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 90 TO 95 IN MUCH OF
OUR REGION. READINGS SHOULD GET NO HIGHER THAN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
80S IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

IT APPEARS AS THOUGH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE FROM
ALOFT FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DEW POINT READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
FAVOR THE MIDDLE 60S ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, EXCEPT IN DELAWARE AND
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND WHERE THE BAYS SHOULD HELP KEEP DEW POINT
READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT IS ANTICIPATED TO RESULT
IN MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES BEING NEAR OR A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE THE
MAXIMUM AIR TEMPERATURES IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY. THE
IMPACT OF THE HIGHER HUMIDITY ON THE DELMARVA SHOULD BRING MAXIMUM
HEAT INDEX VALUES SOLIDLY INTO THE UPPER 90S THERE WITH PERHAPS A
FEW SPOTS HITTING 100, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE CANAL.

WE WILL NOT BE ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY OR AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING
AT THIS TIME SINCE ALL LOCATIONS IN OUR FORECAST AREA ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN JUST BELOW THE ISSUANCE CRITERIA.

A SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH IS EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SOUTHEAST RIDGING GIVING WAY TO A
DEVELOPING TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS BY THE
WEEKEND. A FEW IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
NEXT WEEK PROVIDING CHANCES FOR MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

THURSDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING COLD
FRONT MAY BRING IN MORE CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ADVECTING IN ALOFT TO SPARK SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER DURING THE MORNING HOURS, MOSTLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST, TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM REALLY PEAKING
AS HIGH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT, THOUGH LOW-90S IS NOTHING TO SNEEZE
AT. THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCED VERTICAL MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON
WHICH SHOULD KEEP DEWPOINTS FROM STAYING IN THE LOW-70S, SO
EXPECTING THEM TO MIXOUT INTO THE UPPER-60S...SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDEX
VALUES JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT STILL HAVE SOME TIME FOR
FURTHER ASSESSMENT. BESIDES THE HEAT, THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, WILL TRIGGER MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY IS PREVALENT BUT SHEAR IS ON THE WEAKER
SIDE AS OF NOW BUT DEPENDING ON THE SHEAR AXIS ORIENTATION TO THE
STORMS, WE COULD SEE CELL MERGER OCCUR FORMING A BROKEN LINE OF
STORMS WITH STRONGER WINDS THE MAIN ISSUE. PWATS APPROACH AND COULD
SURPASS 2" SO HEAVY EFFICIENT RAINERS IS ALSO LIKELY WITH POOR
DRAINAGE AND SPOTTY FLASH FLOOD ISSUES POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY - SUNDAY...AS MID-LEVEL TROUGHING BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN BY THE
WEEKEND, THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT BECOMES MORE PARALLEL TO THE UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW...IT LOOKS TO STALL OFFSHORE. IT BEGINS TO SLOW ITS
DEPARTURE EARLY ON FRIDAY SO THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE DRYING OUT. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM BUT THE FRONT SHOULD BE ABLE TO EAT UP THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS AS THE AIRMASS DRIES OUT A BIT. WE LOOK TO BE ON
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGHING SO MOST OF THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY
STAYS TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING US MOSTLY DRY...COULD
BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN DELMARVA CLOSER TO THE
STALLED BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL STILL
REMAIN 90+ DEGREES.

MONDAY -  TUESDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH CLOSER TO
THE REGION BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE 90+ DEGREES WITH A MOISTENING AIRMASS.
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SCATTERED CUMULUS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING.
WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY, DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND. WE WILL INCLUDE VCSH
UNTIL 2300Z FOR KMIV AND KACY.

A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT. WHILE SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS, HAZE AND LIGHT FOG REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, IT SHOULD NOT BE NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD AS IT
WAS THIS MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS IS IN THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS VERY LOW.

A LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WIND, GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...EARLY MORNING FOG/HAZE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...THEN
SCT AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.

FRIDAY - SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

A SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS IS EXPECTED. WAVE
HEIGHTS ON THE OCEAN WILL FAVOR 2 TO 3 FEET WHILE WAVES ON DELAWARE
BAY SHOULD BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY - SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE ON THURSDAY WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COAST INTO THIS EVENING
DUE TO A LONG PERIOD SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL. THE WAVE PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AROUND 10 SECONDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER
RIP CURRENTS...IOVINO




000
FXUS61 KPHI 281957
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
357 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY GIVING WAY TO A
WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT MAY CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A
BRIEF SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE. AFTER THE RESPITE OF HIGH PRESSURE A
STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY, DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE SEA BREEZE AND BAY BREEZE FRONTS
SHOULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED CONVECTION. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY REMAIN MODERATELY
UNSTABLE IN THAT AREA WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES IN THE 800 TO
1200 J/KG RANGE.

OTHERWISE, SCATTERED CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE GRADUALLY DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. WHILE SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND LIGHT FOG MAY
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IT SHOULD NOT
BE AS WIDESPREAD AS IT WAS THIS MORNING.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL
STATES UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO EASTERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN
QUEBEC TONIGHT. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP OUR AREA RAIN-FREE FOR
TONIGHT.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH SURFACE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EASTWARD AND IT
SHOULD APPROACH OUR REGION LATE ON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EVEN LOWER THAN IT
WAS TODAY. WE ARE EXPECTING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
SOME CIRRUS OVERHEAD ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CUMULUS.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 90 TO 95 IN MUCH OF
OUR REGION. READINGS SHOULD GET NO HIGHER THAN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
80S IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

IT APPEARS AS THOUGH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE FROM
ALOFT FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DEW POINT READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
FAVOR THE MIDDLE 60S ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, EXCEPT IN DELAWARE AND
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND WHERE THE BAYS SHOULD HELP KEEP DEW POINT
READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT IS ANTICIPATED TO RESULT
IN MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES BEING NEAR OR A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE THE
MAXIMUM AIR TEMPERATURES IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY. THE
IMPACT OF THE HIGHER HUMIDITY ON THE DELMARVA SHOULD BRING MAXIMUM
HEAT INDEX VALUES SOLIDLY INTO THE UPPER 90S THERE WITH PERHAPS A
FEW SPOTS HITTING 100, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE CANAL.

WE WILL NOT BE ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY OR AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING
AT THIS TIME SINCE ALL LOCATIONS IN OUR FORECAST AREA ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN JUST BELOW THE ISSUANCE CRITERIA.

A SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH IS EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SOUTHEAST RIDGING GIVING WAY TO A
DEVELOPING TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS BY THE
WEEKEND. A FEW IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
NEXT WEEK PROVIDING CHANCES FOR MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

THURSDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING COLD
FRONT MAY BRING IN MORE CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ADVECTING IN ALOFT TO SPARK SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER DURING THE MORNING HOURS, MOSTLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST, TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM REALLY PEAKING
AS HIGH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT, THOUGH LOW-90S IS NOTHING TO SNEEZE
AT. THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCED VERTICAL MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON
WHICH SHOULD KEEP DEWPOINTS FROM STAYING IN THE LOW-70S, SO
EXPECTING THEM TO MIXOUT INTO THE UPPER-60S...SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDEX
VALUES JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT STILL HAVE SOME TIME FOR
FURTHER ASSESSMENT. BESIDES THE HEAT, THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, WILL TRIGGER MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY IS PREVALENT BUT SHEAR IS ON THE WEAKER
SIDE AS OF NOW BUT DEPENDING ON THE SHEAR AXIS ORIENTATION TO THE
STORMS, WE COULD SEE CELL MERGER OCCUR FORMING A BROKEN LINE OF
STORMS WITH STRONGER WINDS THE MAIN ISSUE. PWATS APPROACH AND COULD
SURPASS 2" SO HEAVY EFFICIENT RAINERS IS ALSO LIKELY WITH POOR
DRAINAGE AND SPOTTY FLASH FLOOD ISSUES POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY - SUNDAY...AS MID-LEVEL TROUGHING BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN BY THE
WEEKEND, THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT BECOMES MORE PARALLEL TO THE UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW...IT LOOKS TO STALL OFFSHORE. IT BEGINS TO SLOW ITS
DEPARTURE EARLY ON FRIDAY SO THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE DRYING OUT. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM BUT THE FRONT SHOULD BE ABLE TO EAT UP THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS AS THE AIRMASS DRIES OUT A BIT. WE LOOK TO BE ON
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGHING SO MOST OF THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY
STAYS TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING US MOSTLY DRY...COULD
BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN DELMARVA CLOSER TO THE
STALLED BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL STILL
REMAIN 90+ DEGREES.

MONDAY -  TUESDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH CLOSER TO
THE REGION BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE 90+ DEGREES WITH A MOISTENING AIRMASS.
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SCATTERED CUMULUS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING.
WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY, DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND. WE WILL INCLUDE VCSH
UNTIL 2300Z FOR KMIV AND KACY.

A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT. WHILE SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS, HAZE AND LIGHT FOG REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, IT SHOULD NOT BE NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD AS IT
WAS THIS MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS IS IN THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS VERY LOW.

A LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WIND, GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...EARLY MORNING FOG/HAZE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...THEN
SCT AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.

FRIDAY - SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

A SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS IS EXPECTED. WAVE
HEIGHTS ON THE OCEAN WILL FAVOR 2 TO 3 FEET WHILE WAVES ON DELAWARE
BAY SHOULD BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY - SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE ON THURSDAY WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COAST INTO THIS EVENING
DUE TO A LONG PERIOD SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL. THE WAVE PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AROUND 10 SECONDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER
RIP CURRENTS...IOVINO




000
FXUS61 KPHI 281957
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
357 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY GIVING WAY TO A
WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT MAY CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A
BRIEF SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE. AFTER THE RESPITE OF HIGH PRESSURE A
STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY, DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE SEA BREEZE AND BAY BREEZE FRONTS
SHOULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED CONVECTION. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY REMAIN MODERATELY
UNSTABLE IN THAT AREA WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES IN THE 800 TO
1200 J/KG RANGE.

OTHERWISE, SCATTERED CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE GRADUALLY DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. WHILE SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND LIGHT FOG MAY
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IT SHOULD NOT
BE AS WIDESPREAD AS IT WAS THIS MORNING.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL
STATES UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO EASTERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN
QUEBEC TONIGHT. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP OUR AREA RAIN-FREE FOR
TONIGHT.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH SURFACE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EASTWARD AND IT
SHOULD APPROACH OUR REGION LATE ON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EVEN LOWER THAN IT
WAS TODAY. WE ARE EXPECTING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
SOME CIRRUS OVERHEAD ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CUMULUS.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 90 TO 95 IN MUCH OF
OUR REGION. READINGS SHOULD GET NO HIGHER THAN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
80S IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

IT APPEARS AS THOUGH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE FROM
ALOFT FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DEW POINT READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
FAVOR THE MIDDLE 60S ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, EXCEPT IN DELAWARE AND
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND WHERE THE BAYS SHOULD HELP KEEP DEW POINT
READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT IS ANTICIPATED TO RESULT
IN MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES BEING NEAR OR A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE THE
MAXIMUM AIR TEMPERATURES IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY. THE
IMPACT OF THE HIGHER HUMIDITY ON THE DELMARVA SHOULD BRING MAXIMUM
HEAT INDEX VALUES SOLIDLY INTO THE UPPER 90S THERE WITH PERHAPS A
FEW SPOTS HITTING 100, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE CANAL.

WE WILL NOT BE ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY OR AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING
AT THIS TIME SINCE ALL LOCATIONS IN OUR FORECAST AREA ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN JUST BELOW THE ISSUANCE CRITERIA.

A SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH IS EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SOUTHEAST RIDGING GIVING WAY TO A
DEVELOPING TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS BY THE
WEEKEND. A FEW IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
NEXT WEEK PROVIDING CHANCES FOR MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

THURSDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING COLD
FRONT MAY BRING IN MORE CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ADVECTING IN ALOFT TO SPARK SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER DURING THE MORNING HOURS, MOSTLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST, TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM REALLY PEAKING
AS HIGH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT, THOUGH LOW-90S IS NOTHING TO SNEEZE
AT. THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCED VERTICAL MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON
WHICH SHOULD KEEP DEWPOINTS FROM STAYING IN THE LOW-70S, SO
EXPECTING THEM TO MIXOUT INTO THE UPPER-60S...SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDEX
VALUES JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT STILL HAVE SOME TIME FOR
FURTHER ASSESSMENT. BESIDES THE HEAT, THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, WILL TRIGGER MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY IS PREVALENT BUT SHEAR IS ON THE WEAKER
SIDE AS OF NOW BUT DEPENDING ON THE SHEAR AXIS ORIENTATION TO THE
STORMS, WE COULD SEE CELL MERGER OCCUR FORMING A BROKEN LINE OF
STORMS WITH STRONGER WINDS THE MAIN ISSUE. PWATS APPROACH AND COULD
SURPASS 2" SO HEAVY EFFICIENT RAINERS IS ALSO LIKELY WITH POOR
DRAINAGE AND SPOTTY FLASH FLOOD ISSUES POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY - SUNDAY...AS MID-LEVEL TROUGHING BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN BY THE
WEEKEND, THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT BECOMES MORE PARALLEL TO THE UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW...IT LOOKS TO STALL OFFSHORE. IT BEGINS TO SLOW ITS
DEPARTURE EARLY ON FRIDAY SO THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE DRYING OUT. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM BUT THE FRONT SHOULD BE ABLE TO EAT UP THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS AS THE AIRMASS DRIES OUT A BIT. WE LOOK TO BE ON
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGHING SO MOST OF THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY
STAYS TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING US MOSTLY DRY...COULD
BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN DELMARVA CLOSER TO THE
STALLED BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL STILL
REMAIN 90+ DEGREES.

MONDAY -  TUESDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH CLOSER TO
THE REGION BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE 90+ DEGREES WITH A MOISTENING AIRMASS.
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SCATTERED CUMULUS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING.
WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY, DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND. WE WILL INCLUDE VCSH
UNTIL 2300Z FOR KMIV AND KACY.

A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT. WHILE SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS, HAZE AND LIGHT FOG REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, IT SHOULD NOT BE NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD AS IT
WAS THIS MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS IS IN THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS VERY LOW.

A LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WIND, GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...EARLY MORNING FOG/HAZE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...THEN
SCT AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.

FRIDAY - SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

A SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS IS EXPECTED. WAVE
HEIGHTS ON THE OCEAN WILL FAVOR 2 TO 3 FEET WHILE WAVES ON DELAWARE
BAY SHOULD BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY - SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE ON THURSDAY WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COAST INTO THIS EVENING
DUE TO A LONG PERIOD SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL. THE WAVE PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AROUND 10 SECONDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER
RIP CURRENTS...IOVINO




000
FXUS61 KPHI 281957
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
357 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY GIVING WAY TO A
WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT MAY CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A
BRIEF SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE. AFTER THE RESPITE OF HIGH PRESSURE A
STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY, DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE SEA BREEZE AND BAY BREEZE FRONTS
SHOULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED CONVECTION. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY REMAIN MODERATELY
UNSTABLE IN THAT AREA WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES IN THE 800 TO
1200 J/KG RANGE.

OTHERWISE, SCATTERED CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE GRADUALLY DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. WHILE SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND LIGHT FOG MAY
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IT SHOULD NOT
BE AS WIDESPREAD AS IT WAS THIS MORNING.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL
STATES UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO EASTERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN
QUEBEC TONIGHT. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP OUR AREA RAIN-FREE FOR
TONIGHT.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH SURFACE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EASTWARD AND IT
SHOULD APPROACH OUR REGION LATE ON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EVEN LOWER THAN IT
WAS TODAY. WE ARE EXPECTING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
SOME CIRRUS OVERHEAD ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CUMULUS.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 90 TO 95 IN MUCH OF
OUR REGION. READINGS SHOULD GET NO HIGHER THAN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
80S IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

IT APPEARS AS THOUGH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE FROM
ALOFT FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DEW POINT READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
FAVOR THE MIDDLE 60S ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, EXCEPT IN DELAWARE AND
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND WHERE THE BAYS SHOULD HELP KEEP DEW POINT
READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT IS ANTICIPATED TO RESULT
IN MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES BEING NEAR OR A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE THE
MAXIMUM AIR TEMPERATURES IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY. THE
IMPACT OF THE HIGHER HUMIDITY ON THE DELMARVA SHOULD BRING MAXIMUM
HEAT INDEX VALUES SOLIDLY INTO THE UPPER 90S THERE WITH PERHAPS A
FEW SPOTS HITTING 100, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE CANAL.

WE WILL NOT BE ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY OR AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING
AT THIS TIME SINCE ALL LOCATIONS IN OUR FORECAST AREA ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN JUST BELOW THE ISSUANCE CRITERIA.

A SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH IS EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SOUTHEAST RIDGING GIVING WAY TO A
DEVELOPING TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS BY THE
WEEKEND. A FEW IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
NEXT WEEK PROVIDING CHANCES FOR MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

THURSDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING COLD
FRONT MAY BRING IN MORE CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ADVECTING IN ALOFT TO SPARK SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER DURING THE MORNING HOURS, MOSTLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST, TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM REALLY PEAKING
AS HIGH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT, THOUGH LOW-90S IS NOTHING TO SNEEZE
AT. THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCED VERTICAL MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON
WHICH SHOULD KEEP DEWPOINTS FROM STAYING IN THE LOW-70S, SO
EXPECTING THEM TO MIXOUT INTO THE UPPER-60S...SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDEX
VALUES JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT STILL HAVE SOME TIME FOR
FURTHER ASSESSMENT. BESIDES THE HEAT, THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, WILL TRIGGER MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY IS PREVALENT BUT SHEAR IS ON THE WEAKER
SIDE AS OF NOW BUT DEPENDING ON THE SHEAR AXIS ORIENTATION TO THE
STORMS, WE COULD SEE CELL MERGER OCCUR FORMING A BROKEN LINE OF
STORMS WITH STRONGER WINDS THE MAIN ISSUE. PWATS APPROACH AND COULD
SURPASS 2" SO HEAVY EFFICIENT RAINERS IS ALSO LIKELY WITH POOR
DRAINAGE AND SPOTTY FLASH FLOOD ISSUES POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY - SUNDAY...AS MID-LEVEL TROUGHING BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN BY THE
WEEKEND, THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT BECOMES MORE PARALLEL TO THE UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW...IT LOOKS TO STALL OFFSHORE. IT BEGINS TO SLOW ITS
DEPARTURE EARLY ON FRIDAY SO THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE DRYING OUT. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM BUT THE FRONT SHOULD BE ABLE TO EAT UP THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS AS THE AIRMASS DRIES OUT A BIT. WE LOOK TO BE ON
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGHING SO MOST OF THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY
STAYS TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING US MOSTLY DRY...COULD
BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN DELMARVA CLOSER TO THE
STALLED BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL STILL
REMAIN 90+ DEGREES.

MONDAY -  TUESDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH CLOSER TO
THE REGION BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE 90+ DEGREES WITH A MOISTENING AIRMASS.
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SCATTERED CUMULUS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING.
WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY, DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND. WE WILL INCLUDE VCSH
UNTIL 2300Z FOR KMIV AND KACY.

A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT. WHILE SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS, HAZE AND LIGHT FOG REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, IT SHOULD NOT BE NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD AS IT
WAS THIS MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS IS IN THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS VERY LOW.

A LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WIND, GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...EARLY MORNING FOG/HAZE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...THEN
SCT AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.

FRIDAY - SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

A SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS IS EXPECTED. WAVE
HEIGHTS ON THE OCEAN WILL FAVOR 2 TO 3 FEET WHILE WAVES ON DELAWARE
BAY SHOULD BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY - SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE ON THURSDAY WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COAST INTO THIS EVENING
DUE TO A LONG PERIOD SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL. THE WAVE PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AROUND 10 SECONDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER
RIP CURRENTS...IOVINO




000
FXUS61 KPHI 281957
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
357 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY GIVING WAY TO A
WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT MAY CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A
BRIEF SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE. AFTER THE RESPITE OF HIGH PRESSURE A
STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY, DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE SEA BREEZE AND BAY BREEZE FRONTS
SHOULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED CONVECTION. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY REMAIN MODERATELY
UNSTABLE IN THAT AREA WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES IN THE 800 TO
1200 J/KG RANGE.

OTHERWISE, SCATTERED CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE GRADUALLY DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. WHILE SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND LIGHT FOG MAY
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IT SHOULD NOT
BE AS WIDESPREAD AS IT WAS THIS MORNING.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL
STATES UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO EASTERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN
QUEBEC TONIGHT. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP OUR AREA RAIN-FREE FOR
TONIGHT.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH SURFACE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EASTWARD AND IT
SHOULD APPROACH OUR REGION LATE ON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EVEN LOWER THAN IT
WAS TODAY. WE ARE EXPECTING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
SOME CIRRUS OVERHEAD ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CUMULUS.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 90 TO 95 IN MUCH OF
OUR REGION. READINGS SHOULD GET NO HIGHER THAN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
80S IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

IT APPEARS AS THOUGH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE FROM
ALOFT FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DEW POINT READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
FAVOR THE MIDDLE 60S ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, EXCEPT IN DELAWARE AND
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND WHERE THE BAYS SHOULD HELP KEEP DEW POINT
READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT IS ANTICIPATED TO RESULT
IN MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES BEING NEAR OR A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE THE
MAXIMUM AIR TEMPERATURES IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY. THE
IMPACT OF THE HIGHER HUMIDITY ON THE DELMARVA SHOULD BRING MAXIMUM
HEAT INDEX VALUES SOLIDLY INTO THE UPPER 90S THERE WITH PERHAPS A
FEW SPOTS HITTING 100, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE CANAL.

WE WILL NOT BE ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY OR AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING
AT THIS TIME SINCE ALL LOCATIONS IN OUR FORECAST AREA ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN JUST BELOW THE ISSUANCE CRITERIA.

A SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH IS EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SOUTHEAST RIDGING GIVING WAY TO A
DEVELOPING TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS BY THE
WEEKEND. A FEW IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
NEXT WEEK PROVIDING CHANCES FOR MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

THURSDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING COLD
FRONT MAY BRING IN MORE CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ADVECTING IN ALOFT TO SPARK SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER DURING THE MORNING HOURS, MOSTLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST, TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM REALLY PEAKING
AS HIGH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT, THOUGH LOW-90S IS NOTHING TO SNEEZE
AT. THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCED VERTICAL MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON
WHICH SHOULD KEEP DEWPOINTS FROM STAYING IN THE LOW-70S, SO
EXPECTING THEM TO MIXOUT INTO THE UPPER-60S...SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDEX
VALUES JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT STILL HAVE SOME TIME FOR
FURTHER ASSESSMENT. BESIDES THE HEAT, THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, WILL TRIGGER MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY IS PREVALENT BUT SHEAR IS ON THE WEAKER
SIDE AS OF NOW BUT DEPENDING ON THE SHEAR AXIS ORIENTATION TO THE
STORMS, WE COULD SEE CELL MERGER OCCUR FORMING A BROKEN LINE OF
STORMS WITH STRONGER WINDS THE MAIN ISSUE. PWATS APPROACH AND COULD
SURPASS 2" SO HEAVY EFFICIENT RAINERS IS ALSO LIKELY WITH POOR
DRAINAGE AND SPOTTY FLASH FLOOD ISSUES POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY - SUNDAY...AS MID-LEVEL TROUGHING BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN BY THE
WEEKEND, THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT BECOMES MORE PARALLEL TO THE UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW...IT LOOKS TO STALL OFFSHORE. IT BEGINS TO SLOW ITS
DEPARTURE EARLY ON FRIDAY SO THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE DRYING OUT. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM BUT THE FRONT SHOULD BE ABLE TO EAT UP THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS AS THE AIRMASS DRIES OUT A BIT. WE LOOK TO BE ON
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGHING SO MOST OF THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY
STAYS TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING US MOSTLY DRY...COULD
BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN DELMARVA CLOSER TO THE
STALLED BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL STILL
REMAIN 90+ DEGREES.

MONDAY -  TUESDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH CLOSER TO
THE REGION BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE 90+ DEGREES WITH A MOISTENING AIRMASS.
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SCATTERED CUMULUS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING.
WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY, DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND. WE WILL INCLUDE VCSH
UNTIL 2300Z FOR KMIV AND KACY.

A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT. WHILE SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS, HAZE AND LIGHT FOG REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, IT SHOULD NOT BE NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD AS IT
WAS THIS MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS IS IN THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS VERY LOW.

A LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WIND, GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...EARLY MORNING FOG/HAZE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...THEN
SCT AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.

FRIDAY - SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

A SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS IS EXPECTED. WAVE
HEIGHTS ON THE OCEAN WILL FAVOR 2 TO 3 FEET WHILE WAVES ON DELAWARE
BAY SHOULD BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY - SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE ON THURSDAY WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COAST INTO THIS EVENING
DUE TO A LONG PERIOD SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL. THE WAVE PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AROUND 10 SECONDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER
RIP CURRENTS...IOVINO




000
FXUS61 KLWX 281908
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
308 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RESIDING JUST OFF SHORE. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
THE WAKE. ANOTHER QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT BRUSHES THE MID ATLANTIC
OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCT SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND/OR T-STORMS AGAIN TODAY INTO EARLY
EVENING BUT STAYING MAINLY SOUTH OF I-66. STORMS ARE MOVING MUCH
SLOWER TODAY AROUND 5KT AND DRIER AIR HAS WORKED IN FARTHER SOUTH
BASED ON LATEST BLENDED TPW PRODUCT AND 12Z IAD RAOB SO FLASH
FLOODING THREAT SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY.

LIGHT FLOW...MID-LEVEL DRYING AND MOIST SOILS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO
PATCHY DENSE FOG AGAIN TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AT PLACES THAT RECEIVE
ANY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

FLOW BECOMES SLIGHTLY STRONGER TOMORROW AND MORE SRLY BRINGING
DEWPOINTS UP WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 100F. CHANCE OF T-STORMS
CREEPS UP TO ABOUT I-70 IN NCNTRL MD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
INCRSG CONFIDENCE OF CONVECTION OCCURRING THURS AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. FALLING HEIGHTS ON THURSDAY AS UPPER LVL
RIDGE WEAKENS/PUSHES EAST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. NEAR
ZONAL FLOW TAKES SHAPE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WITH THE A MORE
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE CLOSED LOW OVER CANADA DIGGING
SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES...PROVIDING THE EXTRA PUSH TO FINALLY
PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH AND TO THE SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY
MORNING. 12Z MODEL SUITE COMING INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME...PLACING IT SOMETIME IN THE AFTN IN THE
WEST...AND THEN OFFSHORE BY 12Z FRI MORNING.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURS...WAA PLACES 850MB TEMPS NEAR 20 DEGREES
CELSIUS. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. MOISTURE ADVECTION
ALSO WILL RESULT IN DEW PTS HOVERING AROUND TO RIGHT ABV 70. HEAT
INDICES NEARING THE CENTURY MARK...WITH PSBL 100-105 RANGE IF
TEMPS WARM SLIGHTLY MORE OR IF DEW PTS INCREASE SLIGHTLY. WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TREND. THE COMBO OF HIGHER TEMPS AND DEW
PTS SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WITH SBCAPE
VALUES 1000-2000 J/KG BY THE AFTN. WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR ABOUT 20 KTS
AND STEEPENING MID LVL LAPSE RATES ALSO BY THE AFTN...SUFFICIENT
INGREDIENTS EXIST FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME STRONGER STORMS.
WHILE THE SFC FORCING EXISTS WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LACK OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC SUGGESTS MOST OF THE
CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY ANYTHING STRONGER TO SVR WOULD BE RIGHT
ALONG THE FRONT LATE AFTN INTO THE EVENING. PWATS INCRSG TO AROUND
1.8 INCHES WOULD ALSO SUGGEST THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL.

FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST SLOWLY THURS NIGHT...WITH THE PCPN
TAPERING OFF AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT...DCRSG DEW PTS
BACK INTO THE 60S...AND THE 50S FOR ISOLATED SPOTS. THE COLDER AIR
DOESNT QUITE MAKE IT ALL THE WAY INTO THE CWA. SO WHILE TEMPS WILL
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON FRIDAY...STILL EXPECTING A WARM...YET SLIGHTLY
DRIER DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER REGION THROUGH PERIOD. WEAK PVA AFFECTING
ARE THROUGH WEEKEND. MODERATE PVA ARRIVING MONDAY.

MUCH DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE HIGH BUILDING ACROSS
REGION FRIDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK COLD FRONT SATURDAY.
AFTERNOON HEATING AND A SLIGHT INCREASE OF MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH
TO TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER SOUTHERN MD
DURING THE WEEKEND. INCREASING MOISTURE...STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND LEE-SIDE TROUGH LENDS GREATER CONFIDENCE IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY ESPECIALLY ALONG SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST FRINGES OF AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...ONLY KCHO HAS A CHANCE OF
SEEING A T-STORM THIS AFTERNOON. ALL OTHER TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN
DRY THROUGH WED MORNING. PATCHY DENSE FOG LIKELY AGAIN AT KMRB AND
KCHO WITH A 1-3 HR PERIOD OF IFR VSBYS. CHANCE OF T-STORMS INCREASES
TOMORROW EVERYWHERE.

PSBL MVFR CIGS THURS MORNING FROM ON NIGHT PCPN.
EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY. OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION...VFR CONDITIONS THEN THURS AFTN-FRI. INCRSG CHC OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS THURS AFTN/EVENING WITH A COLD FRONT MVG THRU. ANY
STORM COULD BRING CONDITIONS DOWN TO IFR...WITH HEAVY RAIN...AND
GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. FLOW BECOMES
SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND BETTER DEFINED FROM THE SOUTH. GUSTS UP TO
17 KT LOWER BAY.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THUR MORNING. INCRSG SLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD BRING GUSTS BACK TO
AROUND 18-20 KTS THURS AFTN AND NIGHT ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR/SEARS
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...SEARS/LFR
MARINE...SEARS/LFR




000
FXUS61 KLWX 281908
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
308 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RESIDING JUST OFF SHORE. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
THE WAKE. ANOTHER QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT BRUSHES THE MID ATLANTIC
OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCT SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND/OR T-STORMS AGAIN TODAY INTO EARLY
EVENING BUT STAYING MAINLY SOUTH OF I-66. STORMS ARE MOVING MUCH
SLOWER TODAY AROUND 5KT AND DRIER AIR HAS WORKED IN FARTHER SOUTH
BASED ON LATEST BLENDED TPW PRODUCT AND 12Z IAD RAOB SO FLASH
FLOODING THREAT SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY.

LIGHT FLOW...MID-LEVEL DRYING AND MOIST SOILS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO
PATCHY DENSE FOG AGAIN TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AT PLACES THAT RECEIVE
ANY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

FLOW BECOMES SLIGHTLY STRONGER TOMORROW AND MORE SRLY BRINGING
DEWPOINTS UP WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 100F. CHANCE OF T-STORMS
CREEPS UP TO ABOUT I-70 IN NCNTRL MD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
INCRSG CONFIDENCE OF CONVECTION OCCURRING THURS AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. FALLING HEIGHTS ON THURSDAY AS UPPER LVL
RIDGE WEAKENS/PUSHES EAST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. NEAR
ZONAL FLOW TAKES SHAPE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WITH THE A MORE
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE CLOSED LOW OVER CANADA DIGGING
SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES...PROVIDING THE EXTRA PUSH TO FINALLY
PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH AND TO THE SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY
MORNING. 12Z MODEL SUITE COMING INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME...PLACING IT SOMETIME IN THE AFTN IN THE
WEST...AND THEN OFFSHORE BY 12Z FRI MORNING.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURS...WAA PLACES 850MB TEMPS NEAR 20 DEGREES
CELSIUS. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. MOISTURE ADVECTION
ALSO WILL RESULT IN DEW PTS HOVERING AROUND TO RIGHT ABV 70. HEAT
INDICES NEARING THE CENTURY MARK...WITH PSBL 100-105 RANGE IF
TEMPS WARM SLIGHTLY MORE OR IF DEW PTS INCREASE SLIGHTLY. WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TREND. THE COMBO OF HIGHER TEMPS AND DEW
PTS SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WITH SBCAPE
VALUES 1000-2000 J/KG BY THE AFTN. WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR ABOUT 20 KTS
AND STEEPENING MID LVL LAPSE RATES ALSO BY THE AFTN...SUFFICIENT
INGREDIENTS EXIST FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME STRONGER STORMS.
WHILE THE SFC FORCING EXISTS WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LACK OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC SUGGESTS MOST OF THE
CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY ANYTHING STRONGER TO SVR WOULD BE RIGHT
ALONG THE FRONT LATE AFTN INTO THE EVENING. PWATS INCRSG TO AROUND
1.8 INCHES WOULD ALSO SUGGEST THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL.

FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST SLOWLY THURS NIGHT...WITH THE PCPN
TAPERING OFF AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT...DCRSG DEW PTS
BACK INTO THE 60S...AND THE 50S FOR ISOLATED SPOTS. THE COLDER AIR
DOESNT QUITE MAKE IT ALL THE WAY INTO THE CWA. SO WHILE TEMPS WILL
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON FRIDAY...STILL EXPECTING A WARM...YET SLIGHTLY
DRIER DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER REGION THROUGH PERIOD. WEAK PVA AFFECTING
ARE THROUGH WEEKEND. MODERATE PVA ARRIVING MONDAY.

MUCH DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE HIGH BUILDING ACROSS
REGION FRIDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK COLD FRONT SATURDAY.
AFTERNOON HEATING AND A SLIGHT INCREASE OF MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH
TO TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER SOUTHERN MD
DURING THE WEEKEND. INCREASING MOISTURE...STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND LEE-SIDE TROUGH LENDS GREATER CONFIDENCE IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY ESPECIALLY ALONG SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST FRINGES OF AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...ONLY KCHO HAS A CHANCE OF
SEEING A T-STORM THIS AFTERNOON. ALL OTHER TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN
DRY THROUGH WED MORNING. PATCHY DENSE FOG LIKELY AGAIN AT KMRB AND
KCHO WITH A 1-3 HR PERIOD OF IFR VSBYS. CHANCE OF T-STORMS INCREASES
TOMORROW EVERYWHERE.

PSBL MVFR CIGS THURS MORNING FROM ON NIGHT PCPN.
EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY. OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION...VFR CONDITIONS THEN THURS AFTN-FRI. INCRSG CHC OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS THURS AFTN/EVENING WITH A COLD FRONT MVG THRU. ANY
STORM COULD BRING CONDITIONS DOWN TO IFR...WITH HEAVY RAIN...AND
GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. FLOW BECOMES
SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND BETTER DEFINED FROM THE SOUTH. GUSTS UP TO
17 KT LOWER BAY.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THUR MORNING. INCRSG SLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD BRING GUSTS BACK TO
AROUND 18-20 KTS THURS AFTN AND NIGHT ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR/SEARS
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...SEARS/LFR
MARINE...SEARS/LFR



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281908
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
308 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES ON THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRESTON TUCKER AND GARRETT COUNTIES MAY STILL SEE A COUPLE
SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY STILL LINGERING IN THE
VICINITY BUT ALL OTHER AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
HOLDING IN THE UPPER 80S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM ALLEGHENY
COUNTY SOUTH. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVERAGE AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE
INCREASING NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 BY MORNING. PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO GARRETT/PRESTON/TUCKER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BROKEN RECORD FORECAST WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
ISOLATED STORMS POPPING OVER THE RIDGES AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN WV AND MD. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND EXIT THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW WARM TEMPERATURES AND WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT...AND
WITHOUT THE ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY THAT WOULD COME WITH A DAYTIME
FRONTAL PASSAGE...ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS IF ANY WILL BE ISOLATED.

DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND HEIGHTS ALOFT DECREASE IN RESPONSE TO A
STRENGTHENING WESTERN CONUS RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGING UNDER A BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
KEEP MAINLY DRY AND SEASONALLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH INCLUDED UNMENTIONABLE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SATURDAY AS A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE CROSSES. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS
PROGGED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOLLOWED
CLOSE TO THE ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT INDIVIDUAL
MODEL DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH DIURNAL CU AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER WEAK SURFACE RIDGING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY
COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281908
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
308 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES ON THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRESTON TUCKER AND GARRETT COUNTIES MAY STILL SEE A COUPLE
SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY STILL LINGERING IN THE
VICINITY BUT ALL OTHER AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
HOLDING IN THE UPPER 80S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM ALLEGHENY
COUNTY SOUTH. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVERAGE AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE
INCREASING NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 BY MORNING. PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO GARRETT/PRESTON/TUCKER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BROKEN RECORD FORECAST WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
ISOLATED STORMS POPPING OVER THE RIDGES AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN WV AND MD. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND EXIT THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW WARM TEMPERATURES AND WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT...AND
WITHOUT THE ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY THAT WOULD COME WITH A DAYTIME
FRONTAL PASSAGE...ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS IF ANY WILL BE ISOLATED.

DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND HEIGHTS ALOFT DECREASE IN RESPONSE TO A
STRENGTHENING WESTERN CONUS RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGING UNDER A BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
KEEP MAINLY DRY AND SEASONALLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH INCLUDED UNMENTIONABLE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SATURDAY AS A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE CROSSES. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS
PROGGED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOLLOWED
CLOSE TO THE ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT INDIVIDUAL
MODEL DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH DIURNAL CU AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER WEAK SURFACE RIDGING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY
COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281745
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
145 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH THE NEXT
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BEGINS TO EXPAND A BIT FARTHER E INTO THE WRN
OH/TN VLYS BY LATE TODAY...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES
JUST N OF THE FA. NW FLOW ALOFT CONTS...W/ WEAK SFC HIGH PRES
JUST OFF THE COAST. EXPECTING AFTN CONVECTION TO BE INITIATED
PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN W OF I 95...AND POTENTIALLY DRIFTS
EWD DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVE. WILL CARRY 30-50% POPS W...LOWERING TO
SLGT CHC (20%) POPS ALONG THE COAST. HIGH TEMPS FROM THE MID 80S
AT THE BEACHES TO THE UPR 80S-AROUND 90F ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISOLD-SCT CONVECTION SLO TO DISSIPATE TNGT...ESP W OF I 95. OTRW
VRB CLDS-PARTLY CLOUDY. W/ LO TEMPS 70-75F.

WEDNESDAY...
UPR LVL RIDGING CONTS TO EXPAND EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT ANY AFTN CONVECTION WHILE MAX
TEMPS WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES. HAVE CHC POPS (25-30%) ALONG AND
WEST OF I-95. PARTLY SUNNY W/ HI TEMPS IN THE U80S-L90S...WITH
L-M80S AT THE BEACHES. MILD WED NGT W/ LO TEMPS IN THE L-M70S.

THURSDAY...
UPR RIDGING RETROGRADES A BIT THURSDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT...CHC POPS (30-40%) WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE AFTN...LOWERING TO ~20% AT THE COAST. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW MAX
TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE L90S...EXCEPT 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PATTERN INITIALLY BEGINS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SW CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTING ACRS
HUDSON BAY CANADA. GFS/ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRI/SAT...THEN
FLATTEN OUT SUN/MON. ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST STATES...MODELS
SHOW A GENERAL PERSISTENCE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. APPEARS
THAT A SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH AT LEAST SOME OF THE AREA
LATER THU NIGHT INTO FRI...QUESTION IS WITH REGARD TO HOW FAR SOUTH
IT MAKES IT BEFORE STALLING/DISSIPATING. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A
CLIMO-TYPE OF SCENARIO WHERE THE FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS OVER FAR
SRN VA/NC LATE FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. BEST CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE
THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI AM WITH THE FRONT...THEN WILL KEEP CHC POPS (30-
40%) ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FA FRI-SUN WITH THE FRONT
STALLED TO OUR SOUTH AND THE OPPORTUNITY FOR LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 80S TO LWR 90S
AND LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. AREAS OF SHWRS/TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED MAINLY FROM
KRIC/KOFP SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD. MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS
IS HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.
ELSEWHERE...SHWRS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED...AND HAVE
KEPT ALL TERMINALS DRY EXCEPT KRIC...AND KORF...WHERE NEABY SHWR
SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL BEFORE 19Z. SOME FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WHERE RAIN FALLS...WITH KRIC THE ONLY TERMINAL
CURRENTLY AT RISK OF FOG. MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED WED/THU... AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WESTWARD INTO THE REGION. ISOLATED
SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE WED AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ORGANIZATION EXPECTED. NEXT CHC FOR MORE NUMEROUS SHWRS/TSTMS
AND ASSOCIATED LOWER CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL BE LATE THU INTO FRI WHEN
A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO AND ACRS THE AREA.

MAINLY VFR FLYING WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE SAT-MON EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SFC HI PRES WILL STRETCH FM THE ERN GRT LKS SE TO OFF THE MID
ATLC CST TODAY THRU WED. EXPECT S/SE WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT THRU
THE PERIOD...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT AND SEAS 2-3 FT. A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE WTRS LATE THU...THEN PUSHES ACRS THE WTRS THU NGT
THRU FRI MORNG. SSE WINDS 5 TO 15 KT EXPECTED THU-THU NGT. WAVES
1-2 FT AND SEAS 2-3 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...TMG/WRS
MARINE...TMG



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281745
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
145 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH THE NEXT
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BEGINS TO EXPAND A BIT FARTHER E INTO THE WRN
OH/TN VLYS BY LATE TODAY...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES
JUST N OF THE FA. NW FLOW ALOFT CONTS...W/ WEAK SFC HIGH PRES
JUST OFF THE COAST. EXPECTING AFTN CONVECTION TO BE INITIATED
PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN W OF I 95...AND POTENTIALLY DRIFTS
EWD DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVE. WILL CARRY 30-50% POPS W...LOWERING TO
SLGT CHC (20%) POPS ALONG THE COAST. HIGH TEMPS FROM THE MID 80S
AT THE BEACHES TO THE UPR 80S-AROUND 90F ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISOLD-SCT CONVECTION SLO TO DISSIPATE TNGT...ESP W OF I 95. OTRW
VRB CLDS-PARTLY CLOUDY. W/ LO TEMPS 70-75F.

WEDNESDAY...
UPR LVL RIDGING CONTS TO EXPAND EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT ANY AFTN CONVECTION WHILE MAX
TEMPS WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES. HAVE CHC POPS (25-30%) ALONG AND
WEST OF I-95. PARTLY SUNNY W/ HI TEMPS IN THE U80S-L90S...WITH
L-M80S AT THE BEACHES. MILD WED NGT W/ LO TEMPS IN THE L-M70S.

THURSDAY...
UPR RIDGING RETROGRADES A BIT THURSDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT...CHC POPS (30-40%) WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE AFTN...LOWERING TO ~20% AT THE COAST. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW MAX
TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE L90S...EXCEPT 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PATTERN INITIALLY BEGINS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SW CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTING ACRS
HUDSON BAY CANADA. GFS/ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRI/SAT...THEN
FLATTEN OUT SUN/MON. ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST STATES...MODELS
SHOW A GENERAL PERSISTENCE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. APPEARS
THAT A SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH AT LEAST SOME OF THE AREA
LATER THU NIGHT INTO FRI...QUESTION IS WITH REGARD TO HOW FAR SOUTH
IT MAKES IT BEFORE STALLING/DISSIPATING. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A
CLIMO-TYPE OF SCENARIO WHERE THE FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS OVER FAR
SRN VA/NC LATE FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. BEST CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE
THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI AM WITH THE FRONT...THEN WILL KEEP CHC POPS (30-
40%) ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FA FRI-SUN WITH THE FRONT
STALLED TO OUR SOUTH AND THE OPPORTUNITY FOR LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 80S TO LWR 90S
AND LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. AREAS OF SHWRS/TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED MAINLY FROM
KRIC/KOFP SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD. MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS
IS HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.
ELSEWHERE...SHWRS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED...AND HAVE
KEPT ALL TERMINALS DRY EXCEPT KRIC...AND KORF...WHERE NEABY SHWR
SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL BEFORE 19Z. SOME FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WHERE RAIN FALLS...WITH KRIC THE ONLY TERMINAL
CURRENTLY AT RISK OF FOG. MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED WED/THU... AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WESTWARD INTO THE REGION. ISOLATED
SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE WED AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ORGANIZATION EXPECTED. NEXT CHC FOR MORE NUMEROUS SHWRS/TSTMS
AND ASSOCIATED LOWER CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL BE LATE THU INTO FRI WHEN
A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO AND ACRS THE AREA.

MAINLY VFR FLYING WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE SAT-MON EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SFC HI PRES WILL STRETCH FM THE ERN GRT LKS SE TO OFF THE MID
ATLC CST TODAY THRU WED. EXPECT S/SE WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT THRU
THE PERIOD...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT AND SEAS 2-3 FT. A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE WTRS LATE THU...THEN PUSHES ACRS THE WTRS THU NGT
THRU FRI MORNG. SSE WINDS 5 TO 15 KT EXPECTED THU-THU NGT. WAVES
1-2 FT AND SEAS 2-3 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...TMG/WRS
MARINE...TMG




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281745
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
145 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH THE NEXT
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BEGINS TO EXPAND A BIT FARTHER E INTO THE WRN
OH/TN VLYS BY LATE TODAY...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES
JUST N OF THE FA. NW FLOW ALOFT CONTS...W/ WEAK SFC HIGH PRES
JUST OFF THE COAST. EXPECTING AFTN CONVECTION TO BE INITIATED
PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN W OF I 95...AND POTENTIALLY DRIFTS
EWD DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVE. WILL CARRY 30-50% POPS W...LOWERING TO
SLGT CHC (20%) POPS ALONG THE COAST. HIGH TEMPS FROM THE MID 80S
AT THE BEACHES TO THE UPR 80S-AROUND 90F ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISOLD-SCT CONVECTION SLO TO DISSIPATE TNGT...ESP W OF I 95. OTRW
VRB CLDS-PARTLY CLOUDY. W/ LO TEMPS 70-75F.

WEDNESDAY...
UPR LVL RIDGING CONTS TO EXPAND EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT ANY AFTN CONVECTION WHILE MAX
TEMPS WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES. HAVE CHC POPS (25-30%) ALONG AND
WEST OF I-95. PARTLY SUNNY W/ HI TEMPS IN THE U80S-L90S...WITH
L-M80S AT THE BEACHES. MILD WED NGT W/ LO TEMPS IN THE L-M70S.

THURSDAY...
UPR RIDGING RETROGRADES A BIT THURSDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT...CHC POPS (30-40%) WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE AFTN...LOWERING TO ~20% AT THE COAST. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW MAX
TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE L90S...EXCEPT 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PATTERN INITIALLY BEGINS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SW CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTING ACRS
HUDSON BAY CANADA. GFS/ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRI/SAT...THEN
FLATTEN OUT SUN/MON. ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST STATES...MODELS
SHOW A GENERAL PERSISTENCE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. APPEARS
THAT A SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH AT LEAST SOME OF THE AREA
LATER THU NIGHT INTO FRI...QUESTION IS WITH REGARD TO HOW FAR SOUTH
IT MAKES IT BEFORE STALLING/DISSIPATING. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A
CLIMO-TYPE OF SCENARIO WHERE THE FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS OVER FAR
SRN VA/NC LATE FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. BEST CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE
THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI AM WITH THE FRONT...THEN WILL KEEP CHC POPS (30-
40%) ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FA FRI-SUN WITH THE FRONT
STALLED TO OUR SOUTH AND THE OPPORTUNITY FOR LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 80S TO LWR 90S
AND LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. AREAS OF SHWRS/TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED MAINLY FROM
KRIC/KOFP SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD. MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS
IS HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.
ELSEWHERE...SHWRS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED...AND HAVE
KEPT ALL TERMINALS DRY EXCEPT KRIC...AND KORF...WHERE NEABY SHWR
SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL BEFORE 19Z. SOME FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WHERE RAIN FALLS...WITH KRIC THE ONLY TERMINAL
CURRENTLY AT RISK OF FOG. MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED WED/THU... AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WESTWARD INTO THE REGION. ISOLATED
SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE WED AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ORGANIZATION EXPECTED. NEXT CHC FOR MORE NUMEROUS SHWRS/TSTMS
AND ASSOCIATED LOWER CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL BE LATE THU INTO FRI WHEN
A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO AND ACRS THE AREA.

MAINLY VFR FLYING WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE SAT-MON EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SFC HI PRES WILL STRETCH FM THE ERN GRT LKS SE TO OFF THE MID
ATLC CST TODAY THRU WED. EXPECT S/SE WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT THRU
THE PERIOD...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT AND SEAS 2-3 FT. A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE WTRS LATE THU...THEN PUSHES ACRS THE WTRS THU NGT
THRU FRI MORNG. SSE WINDS 5 TO 15 KT EXPECTED THU-THU NGT. WAVES
1-2 FT AND SEAS 2-3 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...TMG/WRS
MARINE...TMG



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281745
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
145 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH THE NEXT
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BEGINS TO EXPAND A BIT FARTHER E INTO THE WRN
OH/TN VLYS BY LATE TODAY...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES
JUST N OF THE FA. NW FLOW ALOFT CONTS...W/ WEAK SFC HIGH PRES
JUST OFF THE COAST. EXPECTING AFTN CONVECTION TO BE INITIATED
PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN W OF I 95...AND POTENTIALLY DRIFTS
EWD DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVE. WILL CARRY 30-50% POPS W...LOWERING TO
SLGT CHC (20%) POPS ALONG THE COAST. HIGH TEMPS FROM THE MID 80S
AT THE BEACHES TO THE UPR 80S-AROUND 90F ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISOLD-SCT CONVECTION SLO TO DISSIPATE TNGT...ESP W OF I 95. OTRW
VRB CLDS-PARTLY CLOUDY. W/ LO TEMPS 70-75F.

WEDNESDAY...
UPR LVL RIDGING CONTS TO EXPAND EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT ANY AFTN CONVECTION WHILE MAX
TEMPS WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES. HAVE CHC POPS (25-30%) ALONG AND
WEST OF I-95. PARTLY SUNNY W/ HI TEMPS IN THE U80S-L90S...WITH
L-M80S AT THE BEACHES. MILD WED NGT W/ LO TEMPS IN THE L-M70S.

THURSDAY...
UPR RIDGING RETROGRADES A BIT THURSDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT...CHC POPS (30-40%) WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE AFTN...LOWERING TO ~20% AT THE COAST. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW MAX
TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE L90S...EXCEPT 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PATTERN INITIALLY BEGINS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SW CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTING ACRS
HUDSON BAY CANADA. GFS/ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRI/SAT...THEN
FLATTEN OUT SUN/MON. ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST STATES...MODELS
SHOW A GENERAL PERSISTENCE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. APPEARS
THAT A SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH AT LEAST SOME OF THE AREA
LATER THU NIGHT INTO FRI...QUESTION IS WITH REGARD TO HOW FAR SOUTH
IT MAKES IT BEFORE STALLING/DISSIPATING. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A
CLIMO-TYPE OF SCENARIO WHERE THE FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS OVER FAR
SRN VA/NC LATE FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. BEST CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE
THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI AM WITH THE FRONT...THEN WILL KEEP CHC POPS (30-
40%) ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FA FRI-SUN WITH THE FRONT
STALLED TO OUR SOUTH AND THE OPPORTUNITY FOR LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 80S TO LWR 90S
AND LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. AREAS OF SHWRS/TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED MAINLY FROM
KRIC/KOFP SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD. MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS
IS HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.
ELSEWHERE...SHWRS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED...AND HAVE
KEPT ALL TERMINALS DRY EXCEPT KRIC...AND KORF...WHERE NEABY SHWR
SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL BEFORE 19Z. SOME FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WHERE RAIN FALLS...WITH KRIC THE ONLY TERMINAL
CURRENTLY AT RISK OF FOG. MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED WED/THU... AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WESTWARD INTO THE REGION. ISOLATED
SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE WED AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ORGANIZATION EXPECTED. NEXT CHC FOR MORE NUMEROUS SHWRS/TSTMS
AND ASSOCIATED LOWER CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL BE LATE THU INTO FRI WHEN
A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO AND ACRS THE AREA.

MAINLY VFR FLYING WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE SAT-MON EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SFC HI PRES WILL STRETCH FM THE ERN GRT LKS SE TO OFF THE MID
ATLC CST TODAY THRU WED. EXPECT S/SE WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT THRU
THE PERIOD...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT AND SEAS 2-3 FT. A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE WTRS LATE THU...THEN PUSHES ACRS THE WTRS THU NGT
THRU FRI MORNG. SSE WINDS 5 TO 15 KT EXPECTED THU-THU NGT. WAVES
1-2 FT AND SEAS 2-3 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...TMG/WRS
MARINE...TMG




000
FXUS61 KPHI 281544
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1144 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COOL FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COOL FRONT MAY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST NEXT MONDAY. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THIS WEEK WILL BE MONITORED
FOR POSSIBLE NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT ARRIVED ON SUNDAY NIGHT
EXTENDED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR IN OUR REGION LATE THIS
MORNING. THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD.
MEANWHILE, WEAK AREAS HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN CENTERED OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST.

AS THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH
OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ITS VICINITY. HOWEVER,
WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY,
DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND. DEVELOPING SEA AND BAY BREEZE
BOUNDARIES MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO RESULT IN ISOLATED
CONVECTION. MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE TO
ABOUT 700 TO 1100 J/KG IN THOSE AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 90 AT MOST
LOCATIONS IN OUR FORECAST AREA. READINGS SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER
THAN THAT IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN AND ALONG THE COAST. DEW POINT
READINGS SHOULD FAVOR THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. THE RESULTING
MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S.

TODAY MAY BE THE FIRST OF AT LEAST SEVEN CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF 90
PLUS TEMPERATURE READINGS IN MUCH OF OUR REGION. THE MAXIMUM
NUMBER OF CONSECUTIVE 90 PLUS DAYS AT PHILADELPHIA IS 18 SET FROM
JULY 29 THROUGH AUGUST 15, 1988. THE 8 TO 14-DAY OUTLOOK FOR THE
PERIOD FROM AUGUST 4-10 SUGGESTS A COOLING TREND AT THAT TIME, SO
WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE APPROACHING THE RECORD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE OVER OUR AREA TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY. THIS STILL MAINTAINS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, BUT
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW AT THE SURFACE. DUE TO A LACK OF ORGANIZED
SHORT WAVES TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT, AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM INITIATED PROBABLY BY ANY LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE /I.E.
SEA AND BAY BREEZES/ ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE EARLY IN THE
EVENING. IN ADDITION, ANY CUMULUS FIELD IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN AND
DISSIPATE WITH PERHAPS SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS OCCURRING AT TIMES.

IT WILL BE A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA AS THE
SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD RECOVER FROM ANY DAYTIME HEATING
INFLUENCE. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT TO CALM WINDS, A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER AND NOT A LOT OF CLOUDINESS COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS/FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE.

AS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, A MOS BLEND WAS GENERALLY USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
**POTENTIAL SEVEN DAY OR LONGER HEAT WAVE FOR PHL BEGINNING
TODAY AND PROBABLY CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY OR TUESDAY**

500 MB: HIGH PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE THE DOMINANT
INFLUENCE HERE THROUGH THURSDAY. OTHERWISE A TROUGH TRIES TO
EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN STATES NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES: THE MONTH OF JULY SO FAR HAS BEEN NEAR NORMAL
(TEMPS). THIS EXTENDED PERIOD WILL SEE CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES ABOVE
NORMAL EVERY DAY. TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN MORE THAN 5 DEGREES ABOVE NEXT MONDAY
AUGUST 3.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/28
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY, 00Z/28 MEX MOS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN THE 0521Z/28 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF
MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEW POINT-SKY-WIND FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

THE DAILIES...

WHILE NOT IN THE SYNOPSIS DUE TO ITS POTENTIAL TO CAUSE
CONFUSION... AND ITS LACK OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACT, IT LOOKS
LIKE THERE WILL BE A LEFTOVER WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE NEAR
I-95 THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A MORE STRUCTURED WEAK COOL FRONTAL
PASSAGE OCCURS THURSDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...RELATIVELY DRY HEAT. PWAT ~1.35 INCHES. HEAT INDEX
BELOW 100F. SOUTHWEST WIND GUST 15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON EXCEPT
WEAK SEA BREEZES COASTAL LOCATIONS BEGINNING AROUND NOON. USED THE
WARMER MAV TEMPS FOR THE DAYTIME FCST. FCST MAX TEMPS MAY BE A
DEGREE TOO LOW. OVERALL CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...APPROACHING WET BULB FRONT WITH THE 850 MB HOT PROD OF
18-20C AHEAD OF THE CF AND A QUICK START TO 90F THURSDAY MORNING.
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH HIGHER THAN
WEDNESDAY (BY ALMOST 10F). RAISED THE 00Z/28 NCEP GUIDANCE USING
THE 00Z/28 ECMWF BUT DID SO WITH LESS THAN IDEAL CONFIDENCE.

MLCAPE BUILDS IN CENTRAL PA TO 1400J BY 18Z THU AND 600J NJ.
APPEARS UNLIKELY TO HAVE ANY SHOWERS OR TSTMS GOING IN OUR AREA
BEFORE 16Z AND PROBABLY NOT TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR TIL NEAR 22Z.
THAT SHOULD ALLOW MORE WARMING THAN MODELED AND HI NEARING 100F BY
18Z. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW RECORDS WHICH ARE 97-99F EXCEPT
KMPO 90. SSW WIND GUST 15-20 MPH DURING THE AFTN.

WHAT WOULD PREVENT THE HEAT INDEX REACHING 100F? THURSDAY MORNING
SHOWERS AND TSTMS VCNTY KPHL SOUTH AND EAST WOULD LESSEN SUNSHINE
AND MAKE IT MUCH MORE DIFFICULT FOR THE AIR TEMPERATURE TO EXCEED
90F. THERE ARE 00Z/28 EC/GFS MODEL HINTS OF A WEAK INSTABILITY
BURST TRYING TO SHOVE NEWD INTO THE DELMARVA AND SNJ THURSDAY
MORNING AND PRODUCE MORNING SHOWERS.

A SCT-BKN BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND PASS
ACROSS THE AREA THU AFTN/NIGHT. PWAT INCREASES TO 1.9 INCHES ALONG
THE I- 95 CORRIDOR DURING THURSDAY EVENING SO HEAVY RAINERS AND
LOCAL POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING ANTICIPATED AND CANT RULE OUT
ISOLATED FF. WHILE TIMING IS EXCELLENT FOR STRONG TSTM
DEVELOPMENT, SVR UNLIKELY SINCE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS PRETTY WEAK
AND LAPSE RATES VIA TT INDEX LOOK PRETTY POOR. SREF MODELED PWAT
BACK EDGE OF 1.5 INCHES DOWN TO A KDOV- KBLM LINE BY 12Z FRIDAY.

FRIDAY...DEW POINTS LOWER BY 10 TO 12F ON LIGHT NLY FLOW AND AIR
TEMPS DOWN 2-3F. BLUE MOON AND POTENTIALLY NICE HOT SUMMER DAY FOR
THE END OF JULY. ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HEATS UP MAYBE A BIT MORE EACH DAY ON WSW
AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS 10-15 MPH. A NICE WEEKEND SINCE AFTERNOON
DEW POINTS STILL REMAIN PRETTY MODEST...LOW TO MID 60S. SMALL CHC
OF A TSTM NE PA SAT EVE IN WAA - THIS PER 1400J NEAR KHZL MIDDAY
REACHING KBLM BY 00Z/SUNDAY. AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT MONDAY...MORE HUMID AND CONTD HOT. 2000J MLCAPE I95 SEWD.
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE ON THE FCST DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR WITH A CLOUD BASE MOSTLY BETWEEN 3500-5000 FEET. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY
ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KPHL. SEA/BAY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON AND AFFECT KACY, KMIV AND KILG WITH WINDS
TURNING MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER DUE TO THE MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE,
SOME LATE NIGHT LOW CLOUDS/FOG MAY DEVELOP, AND OUR CONFIDENCE IS
ON THE LOWER SIDE AT THIS TIME. LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER, THE
HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS MAY RESULT IN SOME LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING MVFR OR IFR LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG. LIGHT SW
WIND.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY RESULT IN MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
GRADIENT SW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT THU AFTN.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. LIGHT WIND, MAINLY NORTH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH SEA BREEZES BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A SEA
AND BAY BREEZE DEVELOPS. THE SEAS SHOULD RUN IN THE 1-3 FEET RANGE
THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A LONG PERIOD /AROUND 10 SECONDS/ SWELL FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A SOUTHERLY WIND AT 10-15 MPH WITH SOME
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT ALONG WITH WAVES OF AROUND 2 FEET
IN THE SURF ZONE ARE FORECAST TODAY. THE SETUP IS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY AND THEREFORE WE WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE RISK OF
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR BOTH THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE
COASTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KACY RAINFALL 6.33 RANKED 15TH WETTEST WITH THE POR DATING BACK
THROUGH 1874. WETTEST 13.09 IN 1959.

KABE MAY EXPERIENCE NEAR RECORD WARMTH ON WEDNESDAY JULY 29. THE
RECORD THERE IS IS 96 SET IN 1954. RIGHT NOW WE`RE FCSTG 94.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
RIP CURRENTS...GORSE
CLIMATE...DRAG



000
FXUS61 KPHI 281544
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1144 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COOL FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COOL FRONT MAY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST NEXT MONDAY. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THIS WEEK WILL BE MONITORED
FOR POSSIBLE NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT ARRIVED ON SUNDAY NIGHT
EXTENDED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR IN OUR REGION LATE THIS
MORNING. THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD.
MEANWHILE, WEAK AREAS HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN CENTERED OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST.

AS THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH
OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ITS VICINITY. HOWEVER,
WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY,
DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND. DEVELOPING SEA AND BAY BREEZE
BOUNDARIES MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO RESULT IN ISOLATED
CONVECTION. MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE TO
ABOUT 700 TO 1100 J/KG IN THOSE AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 90 AT MOST
LOCATIONS IN OUR FORECAST AREA. READINGS SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER
THAN THAT IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN AND ALONG THE COAST. DEW POINT
READINGS SHOULD FAVOR THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. THE RESULTING
MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S.

TODAY MAY BE THE FIRST OF AT LEAST SEVEN CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF 90
PLUS TEMPERATURE READINGS IN MUCH OF OUR REGION. THE MAXIMUM
NUMBER OF CONSECUTIVE 90 PLUS DAYS AT PHILADELPHIA IS 18 SET FROM
JULY 29 THROUGH AUGUST 15, 1988. THE 8 TO 14-DAY OUTLOOK FOR THE
PERIOD FROM AUGUST 4-10 SUGGESTS A COOLING TREND AT THAT TIME, SO
WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE APPROACHING THE RECORD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE OVER OUR AREA TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY. THIS STILL MAINTAINS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, BUT
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW AT THE SURFACE. DUE TO A LACK OF ORGANIZED
SHORT WAVES TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT, AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM INITIATED PROBABLY BY ANY LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE /I.E.
SEA AND BAY BREEZES/ ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE EARLY IN THE
EVENING. IN ADDITION, ANY CUMULUS FIELD IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN AND
DISSIPATE WITH PERHAPS SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS OCCURRING AT TIMES.

IT WILL BE A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA AS THE
SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD RECOVER FROM ANY DAYTIME HEATING
INFLUENCE. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT TO CALM WINDS, A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER AND NOT A LOT OF CLOUDINESS COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS/FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE.

AS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, A MOS BLEND WAS GENERALLY USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
**POTENTIAL SEVEN DAY OR LONGER HEAT WAVE FOR PHL BEGINNING
TODAY AND PROBABLY CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY OR TUESDAY**

500 MB: HIGH PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE THE DOMINANT
INFLUENCE HERE THROUGH THURSDAY. OTHERWISE A TROUGH TRIES TO
EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN STATES NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES: THE MONTH OF JULY SO FAR HAS BEEN NEAR NORMAL
(TEMPS). THIS EXTENDED PERIOD WILL SEE CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES ABOVE
NORMAL EVERY DAY. TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN MORE THAN 5 DEGREES ABOVE NEXT MONDAY
AUGUST 3.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/28
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY, 00Z/28 MEX MOS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN THE 0521Z/28 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF
MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEW POINT-SKY-WIND FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

THE DAILIES...

WHILE NOT IN THE SYNOPSIS DUE TO ITS POTENTIAL TO CAUSE
CONFUSION... AND ITS LACK OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACT, IT LOOKS
LIKE THERE WILL BE A LEFTOVER WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE NEAR
I-95 THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A MORE STRUCTURED WEAK COOL FRONTAL
PASSAGE OCCURS THURSDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...RELATIVELY DRY HEAT. PWAT ~1.35 INCHES. HEAT INDEX
BELOW 100F. SOUTHWEST WIND GUST 15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON EXCEPT
WEAK SEA BREEZES COASTAL LOCATIONS BEGINNING AROUND NOON. USED THE
WARMER MAV TEMPS FOR THE DAYTIME FCST. FCST MAX TEMPS MAY BE A
DEGREE TOO LOW. OVERALL CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...APPROACHING WET BULB FRONT WITH THE 850 MB HOT PROD OF
18-20C AHEAD OF THE CF AND A QUICK START TO 90F THURSDAY MORNING.
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH HIGHER THAN
WEDNESDAY (BY ALMOST 10F). RAISED THE 00Z/28 NCEP GUIDANCE USING
THE 00Z/28 ECMWF BUT DID SO WITH LESS THAN IDEAL CONFIDENCE.

MLCAPE BUILDS IN CENTRAL PA TO 1400J BY 18Z THU AND 600J NJ.
APPEARS UNLIKELY TO HAVE ANY SHOWERS OR TSTMS GOING IN OUR AREA
BEFORE 16Z AND PROBABLY NOT TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR TIL NEAR 22Z.
THAT SHOULD ALLOW MORE WARMING THAN MODELED AND HI NEARING 100F BY
18Z. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW RECORDS WHICH ARE 97-99F EXCEPT
KMPO 90. SSW WIND GUST 15-20 MPH DURING THE AFTN.

WHAT WOULD PREVENT THE HEAT INDEX REACHING 100F? THURSDAY MORNING
SHOWERS AND TSTMS VCNTY KPHL SOUTH AND EAST WOULD LESSEN SUNSHINE
AND MAKE IT MUCH MORE DIFFICULT FOR THE AIR TEMPERATURE TO EXCEED
90F. THERE ARE 00Z/28 EC/GFS MODEL HINTS OF A WEAK INSTABILITY
BURST TRYING TO SHOVE NEWD INTO THE DELMARVA AND SNJ THURSDAY
MORNING AND PRODUCE MORNING SHOWERS.

A SCT-BKN BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND PASS
ACROSS THE AREA THU AFTN/NIGHT. PWAT INCREASES TO 1.9 INCHES ALONG
THE I- 95 CORRIDOR DURING THURSDAY EVENING SO HEAVY RAINERS AND
LOCAL POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING ANTICIPATED AND CANT RULE OUT
ISOLATED FF. WHILE TIMING IS EXCELLENT FOR STRONG TSTM
DEVELOPMENT, SVR UNLIKELY SINCE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS PRETTY WEAK
AND LAPSE RATES VIA TT INDEX LOOK PRETTY POOR. SREF MODELED PWAT
BACK EDGE OF 1.5 INCHES DOWN TO A KDOV- KBLM LINE BY 12Z FRIDAY.

FRIDAY...DEW POINTS LOWER BY 10 TO 12F ON LIGHT NLY FLOW AND AIR
TEMPS DOWN 2-3F. BLUE MOON AND POTENTIALLY NICE HOT SUMMER DAY FOR
THE END OF JULY. ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HEATS UP MAYBE A BIT MORE EACH DAY ON WSW
AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS 10-15 MPH. A NICE WEEKEND SINCE AFTERNOON
DEW POINTS STILL REMAIN PRETTY MODEST...LOW TO MID 60S. SMALL CHC
OF A TSTM NE PA SAT EVE IN WAA - THIS PER 1400J NEAR KHZL MIDDAY
REACHING KBLM BY 00Z/SUNDAY. AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT MONDAY...MORE HUMID AND CONTD HOT. 2000J MLCAPE I95 SEWD.
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE ON THE FCST DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR WITH A CLOUD BASE MOSTLY BETWEEN 3500-5000 FEET. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY
ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KPHL. SEA/BAY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON AND AFFECT KACY, KMIV AND KILG WITH WINDS
TURNING MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER DUE TO THE MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE,
SOME LATE NIGHT LOW CLOUDS/FOG MAY DEVELOP, AND OUR CONFIDENCE IS
ON THE LOWER SIDE AT THIS TIME. LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER, THE
HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS MAY RESULT IN SOME LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING MVFR OR IFR LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG. LIGHT SW
WIND.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY RESULT IN MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
GRADIENT SW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT THU AFTN.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. LIGHT WIND, MAINLY NORTH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH SEA BREEZES BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A SEA
AND BAY BREEZE DEVELOPS. THE SEAS SHOULD RUN IN THE 1-3 FEET RANGE
THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A LONG PERIOD /AROUND 10 SECONDS/ SWELL FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A SOUTHERLY WIND AT 10-15 MPH WITH SOME
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT ALONG WITH WAVES OF AROUND 2 FEET
IN THE SURF ZONE ARE FORECAST TODAY. THE SETUP IS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY AND THEREFORE WE WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE RISK OF
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR BOTH THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE
COASTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KACY RAINFALL 6.33 RANKED 15TH WETTEST WITH THE POR DATING BACK
THROUGH 1874. WETTEST 13.09 IN 1959.

KABE MAY EXPERIENCE NEAR RECORD WARMTH ON WEDNESDAY JULY 29. THE
RECORD THERE IS IS 96 SET IN 1954. RIGHT NOW WE`RE FCSTG 94.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
RIP CURRENTS...GORSE
CLIMATE...DRAG



000
FXUS61 KPHI 281544
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1144 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COOL FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COOL FRONT MAY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST NEXT MONDAY. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THIS WEEK WILL BE MONITORED
FOR POSSIBLE NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT ARRIVED ON SUNDAY NIGHT
EXTENDED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR IN OUR REGION LATE THIS
MORNING. THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD.
MEANWHILE, WEAK AREAS HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN CENTERED OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST.

AS THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH
OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ITS VICINITY. HOWEVER,
WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY,
DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND. DEVELOPING SEA AND BAY BREEZE
BOUNDARIES MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO RESULT IN ISOLATED
CONVECTION. MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE TO
ABOUT 700 TO 1100 J/KG IN THOSE AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 90 AT MOST
LOCATIONS IN OUR FORECAST AREA. READINGS SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER
THAN THAT IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN AND ALONG THE COAST. DEW POINT
READINGS SHOULD FAVOR THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. THE RESULTING
MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S.

TODAY MAY BE THE FIRST OF AT LEAST SEVEN CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF 90
PLUS TEMPERATURE READINGS IN MUCH OF OUR REGION. THE MAXIMUM
NUMBER OF CONSECUTIVE 90 PLUS DAYS AT PHILADELPHIA IS 18 SET FROM
JULY 29 THROUGH AUGUST 15, 1988. THE 8 TO 14-DAY OUTLOOK FOR THE
PERIOD FROM AUGUST 4-10 SUGGESTS A COOLING TREND AT THAT TIME, SO
WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE APPROACHING THE RECORD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE OVER OUR AREA TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY. THIS STILL MAINTAINS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, BUT
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW AT THE SURFACE. DUE TO A LACK OF ORGANIZED
SHORT WAVES TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT, AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM INITIATED PROBABLY BY ANY LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE /I.E.
SEA AND BAY BREEZES/ ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE EARLY IN THE
EVENING. IN ADDITION, ANY CUMULUS FIELD IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN AND
DISSIPATE WITH PERHAPS SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS OCCURRING AT TIMES.

IT WILL BE A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA AS THE
SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD RECOVER FROM ANY DAYTIME HEATING
INFLUENCE. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT TO CALM WINDS, A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER AND NOT A LOT OF CLOUDINESS COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS/FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE.

AS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, A MOS BLEND WAS GENERALLY USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
**POTENTIAL SEVEN DAY OR LONGER HEAT WAVE FOR PHL BEGINNING
TODAY AND PROBABLY CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY OR TUESDAY**

500 MB: HIGH PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE THE DOMINANT
INFLUENCE HERE THROUGH THURSDAY. OTHERWISE A TROUGH TRIES TO
EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN STATES NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES: THE MONTH OF JULY SO FAR HAS BEEN NEAR NORMAL
(TEMPS). THIS EXTENDED PERIOD WILL SEE CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES ABOVE
NORMAL EVERY DAY. TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN MORE THAN 5 DEGREES ABOVE NEXT MONDAY
AUGUST 3.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/28
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY, 00Z/28 MEX MOS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN THE 0521Z/28 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF
MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEW POINT-SKY-WIND FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

THE DAILIES...

WHILE NOT IN THE SYNOPSIS DUE TO ITS POTENTIAL TO CAUSE
CONFUSION... AND ITS LACK OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACT, IT LOOKS
LIKE THERE WILL BE A LEFTOVER WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE NEAR
I-95 THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A MORE STRUCTURED WEAK COOL FRONTAL
PASSAGE OCCURS THURSDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...RELATIVELY DRY HEAT. PWAT ~1.35 INCHES. HEAT INDEX
BELOW 100F. SOUTHWEST WIND GUST 15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON EXCEPT
WEAK SEA BREEZES COASTAL LOCATIONS BEGINNING AROUND NOON. USED THE
WARMER MAV TEMPS FOR THE DAYTIME FCST. FCST MAX TEMPS MAY BE A
DEGREE TOO LOW. OVERALL CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...APPROACHING WET BULB FRONT WITH THE 850 MB HOT PROD OF
18-20C AHEAD OF THE CF AND A QUICK START TO 90F THURSDAY MORNING.
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH HIGHER THAN
WEDNESDAY (BY ALMOST 10F). RAISED THE 00Z/28 NCEP GUIDANCE USING
THE 00Z/28 ECMWF BUT DID SO WITH LESS THAN IDEAL CONFIDENCE.

MLCAPE BUILDS IN CENTRAL PA TO 1400J BY 18Z THU AND 600J NJ.
APPEARS UNLIKELY TO HAVE ANY SHOWERS OR TSTMS GOING IN OUR AREA
BEFORE 16Z AND PROBABLY NOT TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR TIL NEAR 22Z.
THAT SHOULD ALLOW MORE WARMING THAN MODELED AND HI NEARING 100F BY
18Z. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW RECORDS WHICH ARE 97-99F EXCEPT
KMPO 90. SSW WIND GUST 15-20 MPH DURING THE AFTN.

WHAT WOULD PREVENT THE HEAT INDEX REACHING 100F? THURSDAY MORNING
SHOWERS AND TSTMS VCNTY KPHL SOUTH AND EAST WOULD LESSEN SUNSHINE
AND MAKE IT MUCH MORE DIFFICULT FOR THE AIR TEMPERATURE TO EXCEED
90F. THERE ARE 00Z/28 EC/GFS MODEL HINTS OF A WEAK INSTABILITY
BURST TRYING TO SHOVE NEWD INTO THE DELMARVA AND SNJ THURSDAY
MORNING AND PRODUCE MORNING SHOWERS.

A SCT-BKN BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND PASS
ACROSS THE AREA THU AFTN/NIGHT. PWAT INCREASES TO 1.9 INCHES ALONG
THE I- 95 CORRIDOR DURING THURSDAY EVENING SO HEAVY RAINERS AND
LOCAL POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING ANTICIPATED AND CANT RULE OUT
ISOLATED FF. WHILE TIMING IS EXCELLENT FOR STRONG TSTM
DEVELOPMENT, SVR UNLIKELY SINCE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS PRETTY WEAK
AND LAPSE RATES VIA TT INDEX LOOK PRETTY POOR. SREF MODELED PWAT
BACK EDGE OF 1.5 INCHES DOWN TO A KDOV- KBLM LINE BY 12Z FRIDAY.

FRIDAY...DEW POINTS LOWER BY 10 TO 12F ON LIGHT NLY FLOW AND AIR
TEMPS DOWN 2-3F. BLUE MOON AND POTENTIALLY NICE HOT SUMMER DAY FOR
THE END OF JULY. ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HEATS UP MAYBE A BIT MORE EACH DAY ON WSW
AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS 10-15 MPH. A NICE WEEKEND SINCE AFTERNOON
DEW POINTS STILL REMAIN PRETTY MODEST...LOW TO MID 60S. SMALL CHC
OF A TSTM NE PA SAT EVE IN WAA - THIS PER 1400J NEAR KHZL MIDDAY
REACHING KBLM BY 00Z/SUNDAY. AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT MONDAY...MORE HUMID AND CONTD HOT. 2000J MLCAPE I95 SEWD.
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE ON THE FCST DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR WITH A CLOUD BASE MOSTLY BETWEEN 3500-5000 FEET. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY
ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KPHL. SEA/BAY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON AND AFFECT KACY, KMIV AND KILG WITH WINDS
TURNING MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER DUE TO THE MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE,
SOME LATE NIGHT LOW CLOUDS/FOG MAY DEVELOP, AND OUR CONFIDENCE IS
ON THE LOWER SIDE AT THIS TIME. LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER, THE
HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS MAY RESULT IN SOME LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING MVFR OR IFR LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG. LIGHT SW
WIND.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY RESULT IN MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
GRADIENT SW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT THU AFTN.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. LIGHT WIND, MAINLY NORTH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH SEA BREEZES BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A SEA
AND BAY BREEZE DEVELOPS. THE SEAS SHOULD RUN IN THE 1-3 FEET RANGE
THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A LONG PERIOD /AROUND 10 SECONDS/ SWELL FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A SOUTHERLY WIND AT 10-15 MPH WITH SOME
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT ALONG WITH WAVES OF AROUND 2 FEET
IN THE SURF ZONE ARE FORECAST TODAY. THE SETUP IS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY AND THEREFORE WE WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE RISK OF
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR BOTH THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE
COASTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KACY RAINFALL 6.33 RANKED 15TH WETTEST WITH THE POR DATING BACK
THROUGH 1874. WETTEST 13.09 IN 1959.

KABE MAY EXPERIENCE NEAR RECORD WARMTH ON WEDNESDAY JULY 29. THE
RECORD THERE IS IS 96 SET IN 1954. RIGHT NOW WE`RE FCSTG 94.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
RIP CURRENTS...GORSE
CLIMATE...DRAG



000
FXUS61 KPHI 281544
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1144 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COOL FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COOL FRONT MAY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST NEXT MONDAY. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THIS WEEK WILL BE MONITORED
FOR POSSIBLE NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT ARRIVED ON SUNDAY NIGHT
EXTENDED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR IN OUR REGION LATE THIS
MORNING. THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD.
MEANWHILE, WEAK AREAS HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN CENTERED OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST.

AS THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH
OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ITS VICINITY. HOWEVER,
WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY,
DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND. DEVELOPING SEA AND BAY BREEZE
BOUNDARIES MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO RESULT IN ISOLATED
CONVECTION. MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE TO
ABOUT 700 TO 1100 J/KG IN THOSE AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 90 AT MOST
LOCATIONS IN OUR FORECAST AREA. READINGS SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER
THAN THAT IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN AND ALONG THE COAST. DEW POINT
READINGS SHOULD FAVOR THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. THE RESULTING
MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S.

TODAY MAY BE THE FIRST OF AT LEAST SEVEN CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF 90
PLUS TEMPERATURE READINGS IN MUCH OF OUR REGION. THE MAXIMUM
NUMBER OF CONSECUTIVE 90 PLUS DAYS AT PHILADELPHIA IS 18 SET FROM
JULY 29 THROUGH AUGUST 15, 1988. THE 8 TO 14-DAY OUTLOOK FOR THE
PERIOD FROM AUGUST 4-10 SUGGESTS A COOLING TREND AT THAT TIME, SO
WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE APPROACHING THE RECORD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE OVER OUR AREA TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY. THIS STILL MAINTAINS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, BUT
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW AT THE SURFACE. DUE TO A LACK OF ORGANIZED
SHORT WAVES TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT, AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM INITIATED PROBABLY BY ANY LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE /I.E.
SEA AND BAY BREEZES/ ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE EARLY IN THE
EVENING. IN ADDITION, ANY CUMULUS FIELD IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN AND
DISSIPATE WITH PERHAPS SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS OCCURRING AT TIMES.

IT WILL BE A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA AS THE
SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD RECOVER FROM ANY DAYTIME HEATING
INFLUENCE. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT TO CALM WINDS, A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER AND NOT A LOT OF CLOUDINESS COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS/FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE.

AS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, A MOS BLEND WAS GENERALLY USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
**POTENTIAL SEVEN DAY OR LONGER HEAT WAVE FOR PHL BEGINNING
TODAY AND PROBABLY CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY OR TUESDAY**

500 MB: HIGH PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE THE DOMINANT
INFLUENCE HERE THROUGH THURSDAY. OTHERWISE A TROUGH TRIES TO
EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN STATES NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES: THE MONTH OF JULY SO FAR HAS BEEN NEAR NORMAL
(TEMPS). THIS EXTENDED PERIOD WILL SEE CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES ABOVE
NORMAL EVERY DAY. TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN MORE THAN 5 DEGREES ABOVE NEXT MONDAY
AUGUST 3.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/28
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY, 00Z/28 MEX MOS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN THE 0521Z/28 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF
MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEW POINT-SKY-WIND FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

THE DAILIES...

WHILE NOT IN THE SYNOPSIS DUE TO ITS POTENTIAL TO CAUSE
CONFUSION... AND ITS LACK OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACT, IT LOOKS
LIKE THERE WILL BE A LEFTOVER WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE NEAR
I-95 THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A MORE STRUCTURED WEAK COOL FRONTAL
PASSAGE OCCURS THURSDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...RELATIVELY DRY HEAT. PWAT ~1.35 INCHES. HEAT INDEX
BELOW 100F. SOUTHWEST WIND GUST 15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON EXCEPT
WEAK SEA BREEZES COASTAL LOCATIONS BEGINNING AROUND NOON. USED THE
WARMER MAV TEMPS FOR THE DAYTIME FCST. FCST MAX TEMPS MAY BE A
DEGREE TOO LOW. OVERALL CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...APPROACHING WET BULB FRONT WITH THE 850 MB HOT PROD OF
18-20C AHEAD OF THE CF AND A QUICK START TO 90F THURSDAY MORNING.
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH HIGHER THAN
WEDNESDAY (BY ALMOST 10F). RAISED THE 00Z/28 NCEP GUIDANCE USING
THE 00Z/28 ECMWF BUT DID SO WITH LESS THAN IDEAL CONFIDENCE.

MLCAPE BUILDS IN CENTRAL PA TO 1400J BY 18Z THU AND 600J NJ.
APPEARS UNLIKELY TO HAVE ANY SHOWERS OR TSTMS GOING IN OUR AREA
BEFORE 16Z AND PROBABLY NOT TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR TIL NEAR 22Z.
THAT SHOULD ALLOW MORE WARMING THAN MODELED AND HI NEARING 100F BY
18Z. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW RECORDS WHICH ARE 97-99F EXCEPT
KMPO 90. SSW WIND GUST 15-20 MPH DURING THE AFTN.

WHAT WOULD PREVENT THE HEAT INDEX REACHING 100F? THURSDAY MORNING
SHOWERS AND TSTMS VCNTY KPHL SOUTH AND EAST WOULD LESSEN SUNSHINE
AND MAKE IT MUCH MORE DIFFICULT FOR THE AIR TEMPERATURE TO EXCEED
90F. THERE ARE 00Z/28 EC/GFS MODEL HINTS OF A WEAK INSTABILITY
BURST TRYING TO SHOVE NEWD INTO THE DELMARVA AND SNJ THURSDAY
MORNING AND PRODUCE MORNING SHOWERS.

A SCT-BKN BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND PASS
ACROSS THE AREA THU AFTN/NIGHT. PWAT INCREASES TO 1.9 INCHES ALONG
THE I- 95 CORRIDOR DURING THURSDAY EVENING SO HEAVY RAINERS AND
LOCAL POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING ANTICIPATED AND CANT RULE OUT
ISOLATED FF. WHILE TIMING IS EXCELLENT FOR STRONG TSTM
DEVELOPMENT, SVR UNLIKELY SINCE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS PRETTY WEAK
AND LAPSE RATES VIA TT INDEX LOOK PRETTY POOR. SREF MODELED PWAT
BACK EDGE OF 1.5 INCHES DOWN TO A KDOV- KBLM LINE BY 12Z FRIDAY.

FRIDAY...DEW POINTS LOWER BY 10 TO 12F ON LIGHT NLY FLOW AND AIR
TEMPS DOWN 2-3F. BLUE MOON AND POTENTIALLY NICE HOT SUMMER DAY FOR
THE END OF JULY. ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HEATS UP MAYBE A BIT MORE EACH DAY ON WSW
AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS 10-15 MPH. A NICE WEEKEND SINCE AFTERNOON
DEW POINTS STILL REMAIN PRETTY MODEST...LOW TO MID 60S. SMALL CHC
OF A TSTM NE PA SAT EVE IN WAA - THIS PER 1400J NEAR KHZL MIDDAY
REACHING KBLM BY 00Z/SUNDAY. AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT MONDAY...MORE HUMID AND CONTD HOT. 2000J MLCAPE I95 SEWD.
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE ON THE FCST DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR WITH A CLOUD BASE MOSTLY BETWEEN 3500-5000 FEET. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY
ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KPHL. SEA/BAY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON AND AFFECT KACY, KMIV AND KILG WITH WINDS
TURNING MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER DUE TO THE MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE,
SOME LATE NIGHT LOW CLOUDS/FOG MAY DEVELOP, AND OUR CONFIDENCE IS
ON THE LOWER SIDE AT THIS TIME. LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER, THE
HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS MAY RESULT IN SOME LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING MVFR OR IFR LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG. LIGHT SW
WIND.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY RESULT IN MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
GRADIENT SW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT THU AFTN.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. LIGHT WIND, MAINLY NORTH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH SEA BREEZES BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A SEA
AND BAY BREEZE DEVELOPS. THE SEAS SHOULD RUN IN THE 1-3 FEET RANGE
THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A LONG PERIOD /AROUND 10 SECONDS/ SWELL FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A SOUTHERLY WIND AT 10-15 MPH WITH SOME
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT ALONG WITH WAVES OF AROUND 2 FEET
IN THE SURF ZONE ARE FORECAST TODAY. THE SETUP IS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY AND THEREFORE WE WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE RISK OF
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR BOTH THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE
COASTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KACY RAINFALL 6.33 RANKED 15TH WETTEST WITH THE POR DATING BACK
THROUGH 1874. WETTEST 13.09 IN 1959.

KABE MAY EXPERIENCE NEAR RECORD WARMTH ON WEDNESDAY JULY 29. THE
RECORD THERE IS IS 96 SET IN 1954. RIGHT NOW WE`RE FCSTG 94.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
RIP CURRENTS...GORSE
CLIMATE...DRAG



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281508
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1108 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES ON THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RATHER TRICKY NEAR-TERM FORECAST AS MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS. LOOKING AT THE NAM WHICH KEEPS
SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70...WE COULD SEE STORMS DEVELOP AS THE
CLOUD-FREE SKIES WOULD RESULT SUFFICIENT SFC-BASED INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A GOOD DEAL OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION TODAY...WHICH OUR 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED
EXTENDED AS FAR DOWN AS 850MB. ASSUMING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES
UP TO 750 OR 760MB AND THE ABSENCE OF ANY NOTABLE MOISTURE
ADVECTION ...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO
THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH AND MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN ZONES. HAVE ALSO NUDGED UP FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES
BY A COUPLE DEGREES WITH MOST AREAS CLOUD FREE TODAY AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES NEARING 23C. ALL IN ALL EVEN WITH THE SLIGHT INCREASE
IN TEMPERATURES...IT SHOULD FEEL AT LEAST A LITTLE BETTER IF LOWER
DEWPOINTS ARE REALIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY SLATED FOR A WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY SWEEP
OF THE REGION. ANOTHER WARM WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE EXPECTED BEFORE
THE RELIEF ARRIVES WITH HIGHS AROUND THE 90 MARK AND HEAT INDICES
IN THE MID 90S.

AS FOR PRECIP WITH THE FRONT...NIGHT TIMING AND VERY WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES...-4 TO -5 C AT 500 MB AS PER GFS AND
NAM...WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY AND EXPLOSIVENESS...WHILE LITTLE
FORCING FOR ASCENT IS INDICATED EITHER. PRECIP PROBABILITIES IN
THE CHANCE/SCATTERED CATEGORY WILL THUS SUFFICE FOR NOW.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS PROJECTED TO BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WITH WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A DRY CLOSE TO THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGING UNDER A BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
KEEP MAINLY DRY AND SEASONALLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH INCLUDED UNMENTIONABLE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SATURDAY AS A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE CROSSES. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS
PROGGED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOLLOWED
CLOSE TO THE ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT INDIVIDUAL
MODEL DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EARLY MORNING PATCHY MVFR FOG...VFR
CONDITIONS WITH DIURNAL CU AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT UNDER WEAK SURFACE RIDGING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY
COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281508
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1108 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES ON THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RATHER TRICKY NEAR-TERM FORECAST AS MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS. LOOKING AT THE NAM WHICH KEEPS
SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70...WE COULD SEE STORMS DEVELOP AS THE
CLOUD-FREE SKIES WOULD RESULT SUFFICIENT SFC-BASED INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A GOOD DEAL OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION TODAY...WHICH OUR 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED
EXTENDED AS FAR DOWN AS 850MB. ASSUMING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES
UP TO 750 OR 760MB AND THE ABSENCE OF ANY NOTABLE MOISTURE
ADVECTION ...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO
THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH AND MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN ZONES. HAVE ALSO NUDGED UP FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES
BY A COUPLE DEGREES WITH MOST AREAS CLOUD FREE TODAY AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES NEARING 23C. ALL IN ALL EVEN WITH THE SLIGHT INCREASE
IN TEMPERATURES...IT SHOULD FEEL AT LEAST A LITTLE BETTER IF LOWER
DEWPOINTS ARE REALIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY SLATED FOR A WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY SWEEP
OF THE REGION. ANOTHER WARM WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE EXPECTED BEFORE
THE RELIEF ARRIVES WITH HIGHS AROUND THE 90 MARK AND HEAT INDICES
IN THE MID 90S.

AS FOR PRECIP WITH THE FRONT...NIGHT TIMING AND VERY WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES...-4 TO -5 C AT 500 MB AS PER GFS AND
NAM...WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY AND EXPLOSIVENESS...WHILE LITTLE
FORCING FOR ASCENT IS INDICATED EITHER. PRECIP PROBABILITIES IN
THE CHANCE/SCATTERED CATEGORY WILL THUS SUFFICE FOR NOW.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS PROJECTED TO BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WITH WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A DRY CLOSE TO THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGING UNDER A BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
KEEP MAINLY DRY AND SEASONALLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH INCLUDED UNMENTIONABLE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SATURDAY AS A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE CROSSES. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS
PROGGED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOLLOWED
CLOSE TO THE ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT INDIVIDUAL
MODEL DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EARLY MORNING PATCHY MVFR FOG...VFR
CONDITIONS WITH DIURNAL CU AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT UNDER WEAK SURFACE RIDGING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY
COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KLWX 281453 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1053 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA TODAY.
MEANWHILE...HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE RESULTING
IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FRIDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

UPDATE...FOG HAS BEEN SLOW TO DISSIPATE THIS MORNING LIKELY DUE TO
VERY LIGHT WIND FLOW. OVERALL...ENVIRONMENT LOOKS DRIER TODAY WITH
PWAT DOWN TO 1.44 INCHES FROM 1.74 INCHES YESTERDAY AND A TON OF
DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB. SO EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT LESS CVRG TODAY AND
MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF I-66.

SEASONABLY WARM/HOT AND HUMID FOR LATE JULY WITH HIGH TEMPS
WITHIN A FEW DEGS OF 90 FOR MOST TODAY AND TOMORROW. DEWPOINTS
AROUND 70 WILL FEEL UNCOMFORTABLE WITH THE HEAT IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. NOT A LOT GOING ON SYNOPTICALLY WITH A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT DECAYING TODAY...FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRES
REASSERTING ITSELF TOMORROW. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE
MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE SW THAN THE NE TODAY AND WED. NOT EXPECTING
ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STORM CHANCES IN SOUTHWEST DIMINISH FAIRLY RAPIDLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS INSTABILITY WANES AND INHIBITION STRENGTHENS. IT
WILL REMAIN RATHER WARM AND MOIST...SO A STRAY SHOWER ALONG RESIDUAL
BOUNDARY NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION...THOUGH KEPT OUT OF GRIDS
FOR NOW.

THURSDAY...H5 HEIGHT RISES CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...AS
RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO EXPAND TOWARD
OUR AREA. EXPECT HEIGHTS TO BEGIN TO LOWER SLIGHTLY BY MIDDAY AS
WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY WILL STAY
TO OUR NORTH...BUT SAGGING COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY. BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
WARM UP INTO THE 90S...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
L/70S...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF HEAT INDICES AROUND 100F.

NEAR/ALONG THE FRONT...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN LINE OR
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE AREA FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT APPEARS
THAT MOST AREAS WILL RECEIVE SOME PRECIP...THOUGH TIMING IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. NAM/ECMWF MOVE FRONT THROUGH METROS BEFORE 8 PM...WHILE
SLOWER GFS MOVES FRONT THROUGH METROS AFTER 8 PM. ANEMIC DEEP LAYER
SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR TO MORE ROBUST SVR
THREAT...AS BELT OF STRONGER WESTERLIES ALOFT REMAINS WELL TO THE
NORTH...AND ITS HARD TO GET SUSTAINED ORGANIZED SVR WITH H5 WINDS
AOB 20 KTS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL BE MODERATE OVER PARTS OF THE
AREA...SO ISOLATED PULSE SVR WITH GUSTY WINDS A POSSIBILITY. ATTM
THINK PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF BOUNDARY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD
FLASH FLOODING THREAT...DESPITE PWATS AOA 1.75 INCHES AND WEAK
STEERING LAYER FLOW. SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY COULD LINGER OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY SOUTH AND EAST OF DC...BUT MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE CWA BY 8 AM FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SENSIBLE WX IMPACTS DURING THE LONG TERM RATHER BENIGN...AS PRIMARY
FRONT REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH AND BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
MIDWEST BUILDS INTO THE REGION. FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THURSDAY WILL
KNOCK THE DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE U50S TO L/M60S...WHICH WILL BE
MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL (M/U
80S)...WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH MONDAY. PRECIP CHANCES AT
ANY ONE LOCATION DURING THE LONG TERM ARE VERY LOW...DUE TO THE LACK
OF DISCERNIBLE LIFTING MECHANISMS AND POOR QUALITY MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE WEAK STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY DISSOLVING OVER THE
REGION... THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MORE ERRATIC IN DIRECTION.
WED THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED. SCATTERED AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER
THE REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW. FOG AND CIGS WILL ALSO BE ERRATIC
OVERNIGHT AND THE FOLLOWING NIGHT AS WELL...WITH SOME VFR AND SOME
IFR.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG COLD FRONT. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN TO MOST TERMINALS BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE WEAK STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY DISSOLVING OVER THE
WATERS...THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MORE ERRATIC IN
DIRECTION...ESP THE NORTH BAY. WED THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE ESTABLISHED.

SOUTHERLY CHANNELING COULD LEAD TO SCA GUSTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THE
BAY. SCA CONDITIONS COULD REDEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE REGAINS CONTROL FRIDAY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF PERIOD WITH SUB-SCA WINDS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL BE LOWERED FOR ANNE ARUNDEL AND
ANNAPOLIS AS THE CURRENT HIGH TIDE IS REMAINING JUST BELOW THE
THRESHOLD. THE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE WILL BE LOWER...AND THE
FOLLOWING EARLY WED MORNING SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT TIDE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR WASHINGTON...JUNE AND JULY HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY STORMY. THERE
HAVE BEEN MORE DAYS WITH RAIN IN JUNE AND JULY THIS YEAR /30/...THAN
ANY JUNE/JULY COMBO SINCE 2000 /31/. IF WE EXCEED 2000...THE ONLY
YEAR ON RECORD /SINCE 1871/ WITH MORE IS 1906...WHICH HAD 33.

BALTIMORE HAS HAD SIGNIFICANTLY FEWER DAYS WITH RAIN SHOWERS...25
DAYS THIS JUNE/JULY. THE RECORD IS MORE DISTANT...35 DAYS IN 1889.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CAS
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...CAS/MSE
MARINE...CAS/MSE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KLWX 281453 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1053 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA TODAY.
MEANWHILE...HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE RESULTING
IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FRIDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

UPDATE...FOG HAS BEEN SLOW TO DISSIPATE THIS MORNING LIKELY DUE TO
VERY LIGHT WIND FLOW. OVERALL...ENVIRONMENT LOOKS DRIER TODAY WITH
PWAT DOWN TO 1.44 INCHES FROM 1.74 INCHES YESTERDAY AND A TON OF
DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB. SO EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT LESS CVRG TODAY AND
MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF I-66.

SEASONABLY WARM/HOT AND HUMID FOR LATE JULY WITH HIGH TEMPS
WITHIN A FEW DEGS OF 90 FOR MOST TODAY AND TOMORROW. DEWPOINTS
AROUND 70 WILL FEEL UNCOMFORTABLE WITH THE HEAT IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. NOT A LOT GOING ON SYNOPTICALLY WITH A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT DECAYING TODAY...FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRES
REASSERTING ITSELF TOMORROW. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE
MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE SW THAN THE NE TODAY AND WED. NOT EXPECTING
ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STORM CHANCES IN SOUTHWEST DIMINISH FAIRLY RAPIDLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS INSTABILITY WANES AND INHIBITION STRENGTHENS. IT
WILL REMAIN RATHER WARM AND MOIST...SO A STRAY SHOWER ALONG RESIDUAL
BOUNDARY NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION...THOUGH KEPT OUT OF GRIDS
FOR NOW.

THURSDAY...H5 HEIGHT RISES CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...AS
RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO EXPAND TOWARD
OUR AREA. EXPECT HEIGHTS TO BEGIN TO LOWER SLIGHTLY BY MIDDAY AS
WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY WILL STAY
TO OUR NORTH...BUT SAGGING COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY. BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
WARM UP INTO THE 90S...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
L/70S...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF HEAT INDICES AROUND 100F.

NEAR/ALONG THE FRONT...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN LINE OR
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE AREA FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT APPEARS
THAT MOST AREAS WILL RECEIVE SOME PRECIP...THOUGH TIMING IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. NAM/ECMWF MOVE FRONT THROUGH METROS BEFORE 8 PM...WHILE
SLOWER GFS MOVES FRONT THROUGH METROS AFTER 8 PM. ANEMIC DEEP LAYER
SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR TO MORE ROBUST SVR
THREAT...AS BELT OF STRONGER WESTERLIES ALOFT REMAINS WELL TO THE
NORTH...AND ITS HARD TO GET SUSTAINED ORGANIZED SVR WITH H5 WINDS
AOB 20 KTS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL BE MODERATE OVER PARTS OF THE
AREA...SO ISOLATED PULSE SVR WITH GUSTY WINDS A POSSIBILITY. ATTM
THINK PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF BOUNDARY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD
FLASH FLOODING THREAT...DESPITE PWATS AOA 1.75 INCHES AND WEAK
STEERING LAYER FLOW. SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY COULD LINGER OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY SOUTH AND EAST OF DC...BUT MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE CWA BY 8 AM FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SENSIBLE WX IMPACTS DURING THE LONG TERM RATHER BENIGN...AS PRIMARY
FRONT REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH AND BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
MIDWEST BUILDS INTO THE REGION. FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THURSDAY WILL
KNOCK THE DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE U50S TO L/M60S...WHICH WILL BE
MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL (M/U
80S)...WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH MONDAY. PRECIP CHANCES AT
ANY ONE LOCATION DURING THE LONG TERM ARE VERY LOW...DUE TO THE LACK
OF DISCERNIBLE LIFTING MECHANISMS AND POOR QUALITY MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE WEAK STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY DISSOLVING OVER THE
REGION... THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MORE ERRATIC IN DIRECTION.
WED THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED. SCATTERED AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER
THE REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW. FOG AND CIGS WILL ALSO BE ERRATIC
OVERNIGHT AND THE FOLLOWING NIGHT AS WELL...WITH SOME VFR AND SOME
IFR.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG COLD FRONT. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN TO MOST TERMINALS BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE WEAK STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY DISSOLVING OVER THE
WATERS...THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MORE ERRATIC IN
DIRECTION...ESP THE NORTH BAY. WED THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE ESTABLISHED.

SOUTHERLY CHANNELING COULD LEAD TO SCA GUSTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THE
BAY. SCA CONDITIONS COULD REDEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE REGAINS CONTROL FRIDAY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF PERIOD WITH SUB-SCA WINDS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL BE LOWERED FOR ANNE ARUNDEL AND
ANNAPOLIS AS THE CURRENT HIGH TIDE IS REMAINING JUST BELOW THE
THRESHOLD. THE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE WILL BE LOWER...AND THE
FOLLOWING EARLY WED MORNING SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT TIDE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR WASHINGTON...JUNE AND JULY HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY STORMY. THERE
HAVE BEEN MORE DAYS WITH RAIN IN JUNE AND JULY THIS YEAR /30/...THAN
ANY JUNE/JULY COMBO SINCE 2000 /31/. IF WE EXCEED 2000...THE ONLY
YEAR ON RECORD /SINCE 1871/ WITH MORE IS 1906...WHICH HAD 33.

BALTIMORE HAS HAD SIGNIFICANTLY FEWER DAYS WITH RAIN SHOWERS...25
DAYS THIS JUNE/JULY. THE RECORD IS MORE DISTANT...35 DAYS IN 1889.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CAS
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...CAS/MSE
MARINE...CAS/MSE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KLWX 281453 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1053 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA TODAY.
MEANWHILE...HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE RESULTING
IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FRIDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

UPDATE...FOG HAS BEEN SLOW TO DISSIPATE THIS MORNING LIKELY DUE TO
VERY LIGHT WIND FLOW. OVERALL...ENVIRONMENT LOOKS DRIER TODAY WITH
PWAT DOWN TO 1.44 INCHES FROM 1.74 INCHES YESTERDAY AND A TON OF
DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB. SO EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT LESS CVRG TODAY AND
MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF I-66.

SEASONABLY WARM/HOT AND HUMID FOR LATE JULY WITH HIGH TEMPS
WITHIN A FEW DEGS OF 90 FOR MOST TODAY AND TOMORROW. DEWPOINTS
AROUND 70 WILL FEEL UNCOMFORTABLE WITH THE HEAT IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. NOT A LOT GOING ON SYNOPTICALLY WITH A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT DECAYING TODAY...FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRES
REASSERTING ITSELF TOMORROW. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE
MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE SW THAN THE NE TODAY AND WED. NOT EXPECTING
ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STORM CHANCES IN SOUTHWEST DIMINISH FAIRLY RAPIDLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS INSTABILITY WANES AND INHIBITION STRENGTHENS. IT
WILL REMAIN RATHER WARM AND MOIST...SO A STRAY SHOWER ALONG RESIDUAL
BOUNDARY NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION...THOUGH KEPT OUT OF GRIDS
FOR NOW.

THURSDAY...H5 HEIGHT RISES CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...AS
RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO EXPAND TOWARD
OUR AREA. EXPECT HEIGHTS TO BEGIN TO LOWER SLIGHTLY BY MIDDAY AS
WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY WILL STAY
TO OUR NORTH...BUT SAGGING COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY. BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
WARM UP INTO THE 90S...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
L/70S...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF HEAT INDICES AROUND 100F.

NEAR/ALONG THE FRONT...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN LINE OR
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE AREA FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT APPEARS
THAT MOST AREAS WILL RECEIVE SOME PRECIP...THOUGH TIMING IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. NAM/ECMWF MOVE FRONT THROUGH METROS BEFORE 8 PM...WHILE
SLOWER GFS MOVES FRONT THROUGH METROS AFTER 8 PM. ANEMIC DEEP LAYER
SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR TO MORE ROBUST SVR
THREAT...AS BELT OF STRONGER WESTERLIES ALOFT REMAINS WELL TO THE
NORTH...AND ITS HARD TO GET SUSTAINED ORGANIZED SVR WITH H5 WINDS
AOB 20 KTS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL BE MODERATE OVER PARTS OF THE
AREA...SO ISOLATED PULSE SVR WITH GUSTY WINDS A POSSIBILITY. ATTM
THINK PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF BOUNDARY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD
FLASH FLOODING THREAT...DESPITE PWATS AOA 1.75 INCHES AND WEAK
STEERING LAYER FLOW. SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY COULD LINGER OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY SOUTH AND EAST OF DC...BUT MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE CWA BY 8 AM FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SENSIBLE WX IMPACTS DURING THE LONG TERM RATHER BENIGN...AS PRIMARY
FRONT REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH AND BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
MIDWEST BUILDS INTO THE REGION. FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THURSDAY WILL
KNOCK THE DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE U50S TO L/M60S...WHICH WILL BE
MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL (M/U
80S)...WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH MONDAY. PRECIP CHANCES AT
ANY ONE LOCATION DURING THE LONG TERM ARE VERY LOW...DUE TO THE LACK
OF DISCERNIBLE LIFTING MECHANISMS AND POOR QUALITY MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE WEAK STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY DISSOLVING OVER THE
REGION... THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MORE ERRATIC IN DIRECTION.
WED THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED. SCATTERED AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER
THE REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW. FOG AND CIGS WILL ALSO BE ERRATIC
OVERNIGHT AND THE FOLLOWING NIGHT AS WELL...WITH SOME VFR AND SOME
IFR.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG COLD FRONT. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN TO MOST TERMINALS BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE WEAK STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY DISSOLVING OVER THE
WATERS...THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MORE ERRATIC IN
DIRECTION...ESP THE NORTH BAY. WED THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE ESTABLISHED.

SOUTHERLY CHANNELING COULD LEAD TO SCA GUSTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THE
BAY. SCA CONDITIONS COULD REDEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE REGAINS CONTROL FRIDAY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF PERIOD WITH SUB-SCA WINDS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL BE LOWERED FOR ANNE ARUNDEL AND
ANNAPOLIS AS THE CURRENT HIGH TIDE IS REMAINING JUST BELOW THE
THRESHOLD. THE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE WILL BE LOWER...AND THE
FOLLOWING EARLY WED MORNING SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT TIDE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR WASHINGTON...JUNE AND JULY HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY STORMY. THERE
HAVE BEEN MORE DAYS WITH RAIN IN JUNE AND JULY THIS YEAR /30/...THAN
ANY JUNE/JULY COMBO SINCE 2000 /31/. IF WE EXCEED 2000...THE ONLY
YEAR ON RECORD /SINCE 1871/ WITH MORE IS 1906...WHICH HAD 33.

BALTIMORE HAS HAD SIGNIFICANTLY FEWER DAYS WITH RAIN SHOWERS...25
DAYS THIS JUNE/JULY. THE RECORD IS MORE DISTANT...35 DAYS IN 1889.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CAS
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...CAS/MSE
MARINE...CAS/MSE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KLWX 281453 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1053 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA TODAY.
MEANWHILE...HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE RESULTING
IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FRIDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

UPDATE...FOG HAS BEEN SLOW TO DISSIPATE THIS MORNING LIKELY DUE TO
VERY LIGHT WIND FLOW. OVERALL...ENVIRONMENT LOOKS DRIER TODAY WITH
PWAT DOWN TO 1.44 INCHES FROM 1.74 INCHES YESTERDAY AND A TON OF
DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB. SO EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT LESS CVRG TODAY AND
MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF I-66.

SEASONABLY WARM/HOT AND HUMID FOR LATE JULY WITH HIGH TEMPS
WITHIN A FEW DEGS OF 90 FOR MOST TODAY AND TOMORROW. DEWPOINTS
AROUND 70 WILL FEEL UNCOMFORTABLE WITH THE HEAT IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. NOT A LOT GOING ON SYNOPTICALLY WITH A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT DECAYING TODAY...FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRES
REASSERTING ITSELF TOMORROW. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE
MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE SW THAN THE NE TODAY AND WED. NOT EXPECTING
ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STORM CHANCES IN SOUTHWEST DIMINISH FAIRLY RAPIDLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS INSTABILITY WANES AND INHIBITION STRENGTHENS. IT
WILL REMAIN RATHER WARM AND MOIST...SO A STRAY SHOWER ALONG RESIDUAL
BOUNDARY NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION...THOUGH KEPT OUT OF GRIDS
FOR NOW.

THURSDAY...H5 HEIGHT RISES CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...AS
RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO EXPAND TOWARD
OUR AREA. EXPECT HEIGHTS TO BEGIN TO LOWER SLIGHTLY BY MIDDAY AS
WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY WILL STAY
TO OUR NORTH...BUT SAGGING COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY. BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
WARM UP INTO THE 90S...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
L/70S...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF HEAT INDICES AROUND 100F.

NEAR/ALONG THE FRONT...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN LINE OR
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE AREA FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT APPEARS
THAT MOST AREAS WILL RECEIVE SOME PRECIP...THOUGH TIMING IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. NAM/ECMWF MOVE FRONT THROUGH METROS BEFORE 8 PM...WHILE
SLOWER GFS MOVES FRONT THROUGH METROS AFTER 8 PM. ANEMIC DEEP LAYER
SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR TO MORE ROBUST SVR
THREAT...AS BELT OF STRONGER WESTERLIES ALOFT REMAINS WELL TO THE
NORTH...AND ITS HARD TO GET SUSTAINED ORGANIZED SVR WITH H5 WINDS
AOB 20 KTS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL BE MODERATE OVER PARTS OF THE
AREA...SO ISOLATED PULSE SVR WITH GUSTY WINDS A POSSIBILITY. ATTM
THINK PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF BOUNDARY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD
FLASH FLOODING THREAT...DESPITE PWATS AOA 1.75 INCHES AND WEAK
STEERING LAYER FLOW. SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY COULD LINGER OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY SOUTH AND EAST OF DC...BUT MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE CWA BY 8 AM FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SENSIBLE WX IMPACTS DURING THE LONG TERM RATHER BENIGN...AS PRIMARY
FRONT REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH AND BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
MIDWEST BUILDS INTO THE REGION. FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THURSDAY WILL
KNOCK THE DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE U50S TO L/M60S...WHICH WILL BE
MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL (M/U
80S)...WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH MONDAY. PRECIP CHANCES AT
ANY ONE LOCATION DURING THE LONG TERM ARE VERY LOW...DUE TO THE LACK
OF DISCERNIBLE LIFTING MECHANISMS AND POOR QUALITY MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE WEAK STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY DISSOLVING OVER THE
REGION... THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MORE ERRATIC IN DIRECTION.
WED THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED. SCATTERED AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER
THE REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW. FOG AND CIGS WILL ALSO BE ERRATIC
OVERNIGHT AND THE FOLLOWING NIGHT AS WELL...WITH SOME VFR AND SOME
IFR.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG COLD FRONT. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN TO MOST TERMINALS BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE WEAK STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY DISSOLVING OVER THE
WATERS...THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MORE ERRATIC IN
DIRECTION...ESP THE NORTH BAY. WED THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE ESTABLISHED.

SOUTHERLY CHANNELING COULD LEAD TO SCA GUSTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THE
BAY. SCA CONDITIONS COULD REDEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE REGAINS CONTROL FRIDAY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF PERIOD WITH SUB-SCA WINDS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL BE LOWERED FOR ANNE ARUNDEL AND
ANNAPOLIS AS THE CURRENT HIGH TIDE IS REMAINING JUST BELOW THE
THRESHOLD. THE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE WILL BE LOWER...AND THE
FOLLOWING EARLY WED MORNING SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT TIDE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR WASHINGTON...JUNE AND JULY HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY STORMY. THERE
HAVE BEEN MORE DAYS WITH RAIN IN JUNE AND JULY THIS YEAR /30/...THAN
ANY JUNE/JULY COMBO SINCE 2000 /31/. IF WE EXCEED 2000...THE ONLY
YEAR ON RECORD /SINCE 1871/ WITH MORE IS 1906...WHICH HAD 33.

BALTIMORE HAS HAD SIGNIFICANTLY FEWER DAYS WITH RAIN SHOWERS...25
DAYS THIS JUNE/JULY. THE RECORD IS MORE DISTANT...35 DAYS IN 1889.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CAS
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...CAS/MSE
MARINE...CAS/MSE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KLWX 281453 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1053 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA TODAY.
MEANWHILE...HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE RESULTING
IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FRIDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

UPDATE...FOG HAS BEEN SLOW TO DISSIPATE THIS MORNING LIKELY DUE TO
VERY LIGHT WIND FLOW. OVERALL...ENVIRONMENT LOOKS DRIER TODAY WITH
PWAT DOWN TO 1.44 INCHES FROM 1.74 INCHES YESTERDAY AND A TON OF
DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB. SO EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT LESS CVRG TODAY AND
MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF I-66.

SEASONABLY WARM/HOT AND HUMID FOR LATE JULY WITH HIGH TEMPS
WITHIN A FEW DEGS OF 90 FOR MOST TODAY AND TOMORROW. DEWPOINTS
AROUND 70 WILL FEEL UNCOMFORTABLE WITH THE HEAT IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. NOT A LOT GOING ON SYNOPTICALLY WITH A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT DECAYING TODAY...FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRES
REASSERTING ITSELF TOMORROW. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE
MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE SW THAN THE NE TODAY AND WED. NOT EXPECTING
ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STORM CHANCES IN SOUTHWEST DIMINISH FAIRLY RAPIDLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS INSTABILITY WANES AND INHIBITION STRENGTHENS. IT
WILL REMAIN RATHER WARM AND MOIST...SO A STRAY SHOWER ALONG RESIDUAL
BOUNDARY NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION...THOUGH KEPT OUT OF GRIDS
FOR NOW.

THURSDAY...H5 HEIGHT RISES CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...AS
RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO EXPAND TOWARD
OUR AREA. EXPECT HEIGHTS TO BEGIN TO LOWER SLIGHTLY BY MIDDAY AS
WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY WILL STAY
TO OUR NORTH...BUT SAGGING COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY. BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
WARM UP INTO THE 90S...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
L/70S...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF HEAT INDICES AROUND 100F.

NEAR/ALONG THE FRONT...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN LINE OR
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE AREA FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT APPEARS
THAT MOST AREAS WILL RECEIVE SOME PRECIP...THOUGH TIMING IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. NAM/ECMWF MOVE FRONT THROUGH METROS BEFORE 8 PM...WHILE
SLOWER GFS MOVES FRONT THROUGH METROS AFTER 8 PM. ANEMIC DEEP LAYER
SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR TO MORE ROBUST SVR
THREAT...AS BELT OF STRONGER WESTERLIES ALOFT REMAINS WELL TO THE
NORTH...AND ITS HARD TO GET SUSTAINED ORGANIZED SVR WITH H5 WINDS
AOB 20 KTS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL BE MODERATE OVER PARTS OF THE
AREA...SO ISOLATED PULSE SVR WITH GUSTY WINDS A POSSIBILITY. ATTM
THINK PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF BOUNDARY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD
FLASH FLOODING THREAT...DESPITE PWATS AOA 1.75 INCHES AND WEAK
STEERING LAYER FLOW. SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY COULD LINGER OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY SOUTH AND EAST OF DC...BUT MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE CWA BY 8 AM FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SENSIBLE WX IMPACTS DURING THE LONG TERM RATHER BENIGN...AS PRIMARY
FRONT REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH AND BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
MIDWEST BUILDS INTO THE REGION. FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THURSDAY WILL
KNOCK THE DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE U50S TO L/M60S...WHICH WILL BE
MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL (M/U
80S)...WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH MONDAY. PRECIP CHANCES AT
ANY ONE LOCATION DURING THE LONG TERM ARE VERY LOW...DUE TO THE LACK
OF DISCERNIBLE LIFTING MECHANISMS AND POOR QUALITY MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE WEAK STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY DISSOLVING OVER THE
REGION... THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MORE ERRATIC IN DIRECTION.
WED THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED. SCATTERED AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER
THE REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW. FOG AND CIGS WILL ALSO BE ERRATIC
OVERNIGHT AND THE FOLLOWING NIGHT AS WELL...WITH SOME VFR AND SOME
IFR.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG COLD FRONT. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN TO MOST TERMINALS BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE WEAK STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY DISSOLVING OVER THE
WATERS...THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MORE ERRATIC IN
DIRECTION...ESP THE NORTH BAY. WED THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE ESTABLISHED.

SOUTHERLY CHANNELING COULD LEAD TO SCA GUSTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THE
BAY. SCA CONDITIONS COULD REDEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE REGAINS CONTROL FRIDAY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF PERIOD WITH SUB-SCA WINDS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL BE LOWERED FOR ANNE ARUNDEL AND
ANNAPOLIS AS THE CURRENT HIGH TIDE IS REMAINING JUST BELOW THE
THRESHOLD. THE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE WILL BE LOWER...AND THE
FOLLOWING EARLY WED MORNING SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT TIDE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR WASHINGTON...JUNE AND JULY HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY STORMY. THERE
HAVE BEEN MORE DAYS WITH RAIN IN JUNE AND JULY THIS YEAR /30/...THAN
ANY JUNE/JULY COMBO SINCE 2000 /31/. IF WE EXCEED 2000...THE ONLY
YEAR ON RECORD /SINCE 1871/ WITH MORE IS 1906...WHICH HAD 33.

BALTIMORE HAS HAD SIGNIFICANTLY FEWER DAYS WITH RAIN SHOWERS...25
DAYS THIS JUNE/JULY. THE RECORD IS MORE DISTANT...35 DAYS IN 1889.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CAS
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...CAS/MSE
MARINE...CAS/MSE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KLWX 281453 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1053 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA TODAY.
MEANWHILE...HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE RESULTING
IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FRIDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

UPDATE...FOG HAS BEEN SLOW TO DISSIPATE THIS MORNING LIKELY DUE TO
VERY LIGHT WIND FLOW. OVERALL...ENVIRONMENT LOOKS DRIER TODAY WITH
PWAT DOWN TO 1.44 INCHES FROM 1.74 INCHES YESTERDAY AND A TON OF
DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB. SO EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT LESS CVRG TODAY AND
MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF I-66.

SEASONABLY WARM/HOT AND HUMID FOR LATE JULY WITH HIGH TEMPS
WITHIN A FEW DEGS OF 90 FOR MOST TODAY AND TOMORROW. DEWPOINTS
AROUND 70 WILL FEEL UNCOMFORTABLE WITH THE HEAT IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. NOT A LOT GOING ON SYNOPTICALLY WITH A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT DECAYING TODAY...FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRES
REASSERTING ITSELF TOMORROW. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE
MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE SW THAN THE NE TODAY AND WED. NOT EXPECTING
ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STORM CHANCES IN SOUTHWEST DIMINISH FAIRLY RAPIDLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS INSTABILITY WANES AND INHIBITION STRENGTHENS. IT
WILL REMAIN RATHER WARM AND MOIST...SO A STRAY SHOWER ALONG RESIDUAL
BOUNDARY NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION...THOUGH KEPT OUT OF GRIDS
FOR NOW.

THURSDAY...H5 HEIGHT RISES CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...AS
RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO EXPAND TOWARD
OUR AREA. EXPECT HEIGHTS TO BEGIN TO LOWER SLIGHTLY BY MIDDAY AS
WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY WILL STAY
TO OUR NORTH...BUT SAGGING COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY. BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
WARM UP INTO THE 90S...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
L/70S...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF HEAT INDICES AROUND 100F.

NEAR/ALONG THE FRONT...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN LINE OR
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE AREA FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT APPEARS
THAT MOST AREAS WILL RECEIVE SOME PRECIP...THOUGH TIMING IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. NAM/ECMWF MOVE FRONT THROUGH METROS BEFORE 8 PM...WHILE
SLOWER GFS MOVES FRONT THROUGH METROS AFTER 8 PM. ANEMIC DEEP LAYER
SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR TO MORE ROBUST SVR
THREAT...AS BELT OF STRONGER WESTERLIES ALOFT REMAINS WELL TO THE
NORTH...AND ITS HARD TO GET SUSTAINED ORGANIZED SVR WITH H5 WINDS
AOB 20 KTS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL BE MODERATE OVER PARTS OF THE
AREA...SO ISOLATED PULSE SVR WITH GUSTY WINDS A POSSIBILITY. ATTM
THINK PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF BOUNDARY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD
FLASH FLOODING THREAT...DESPITE PWATS AOA 1.75 INCHES AND WEAK
STEERING LAYER FLOW. SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY COULD LINGER OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY SOUTH AND EAST OF DC...BUT MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE CWA BY 8 AM FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SENSIBLE WX IMPACTS DURING THE LONG TERM RATHER BENIGN...AS PRIMARY
FRONT REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH AND BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
MIDWEST BUILDS INTO THE REGION. FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THURSDAY WILL
KNOCK THE DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE U50S TO L/M60S...WHICH WILL BE
MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL (M/U
80S)...WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH MONDAY. PRECIP CHANCES AT
ANY ONE LOCATION DURING THE LONG TERM ARE VERY LOW...DUE TO THE LACK
OF DISCERNIBLE LIFTING MECHANISMS AND POOR QUALITY MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE WEAK STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY DISSOLVING OVER THE
REGION... THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MORE ERRATIC IN DIRECTION.
WED THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED. SCATTERED AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER
THE REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW. FOG AND CIGS WILL ALSO BE ERRATIC
OVERNIGHT AND THE FOLLOWING NIGHT AS WELL...WITH SOME VFR AND SOME
IFR.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG COLD FRONT. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN TO MOST TERMINALS BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE WEAK STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY DISSOLVING OVER THE
WATERS...THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MORE ERRATIC IN
DIRECTION...ESP THE NORTH BAY. WED THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE ESTABLISHED.

SOUTHERLY CHANNELING COULD LEAD TO SCA GUSTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THE
BAY. SCA CONDITIONS COULD REDEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE REGAINS CONTROL FRIDAY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF PERIOD WITH SUB-SCA WINDS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL BE LOWERED FOR ANNE ARUNDEL AND
ANNAPOLIS AS THE CURRENT HIGH TIDE IS REMAINING JUST BELOW THE
THRESHOLD. THE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE WILL BE LOWER...AND THE
FOLLOWING EARLY WED MORNING SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT TIDE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR WASHINGTON...JUNE AND JULY HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY STORMY. THERE
HAVE BEEN MORE DAYS WITH RAIN IN JUNE AND JULY THIS YEAR /30/...THAN
ANY JUNE/JULY COMBO SINCE 2000 /31/. IF WE EXCEED 2000...THE ONLY
YEAR ON RECORD /SINCE 1871/ WITH MORE IS 1906...WHICH HAD 33.

BALTIMORE HAS HAD SIGNIFICANTLY FEWER DAYS WITH RAIN SHOWERS...25
DAYS THIS JUNE/JULY. THE RECORD IS MORE DISTANT...35 DAYS IN 1889.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CAS
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...CAS/MSE
MARINE...CAS/MSE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281428
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1028 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH THE NEXT
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BEGINS TO EXPAND A BIT FARTHER E INTO THE WRN
OH/TN VLYS BY LATE TODAY...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES
JUST N OF THE FA. NW FLOW ALOFT CONTS...W/ WEAK SFC HIGH PRES
JUST OFF THE COAST. EXPECTING AFTN CONVECTION TO BE INITIATED
PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN W OF I 95...AND POTENTIALLY DRIFTS
EWD DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVE. WILL CARRY 30-50% POPS W...LOWERING TO
SLGT CHC (20%) POPS ALONG THE COAST. HIGH TEMPS FROM THE MID 80S
AT THE BEACHES TO THE UPR 80S-AROUND 90F ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISOLD-SCT CONVECTION SLO TO DISSIPATE TNGT...ESP W OF I 95. OTRW
VRB CLDS-PARTLY CLOUDY. W/ LO TEMPS 70-75F.

WEDNESDAY...
UPR LVL RIDGING CONTS TO EXPAND EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT ANY AFTN CONVECTION WHILE MAX
TEMPS WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES. HAVE CHC POPS (25-30%) ALONG AND
WEST OF I-95. PARTLY SUNNY W/ HI TEMPS IN THE U80S-L90S...WITH
L-M80S AT THE BEACHES. MILD WED NGT W/ LO TEMPS IN THE L-M70S.

THURSDAY...
UPR RIDGING RETROGRADES A BIT THURSDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT...CHC POPS (30-40%) WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE AFTN...LOWERING TO ~20% AT THE COAST. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW MAX
TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE L90S...EXCEPT 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PATTERN INITIALLY BEGINS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SW CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTING ACRS
HUDSON BAY CANADA. GFS/ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRI/SAT...THEN
FLATTEN OUT SUN/MON. ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST STATES...MODELS
SHOW A GENERAL PERSISTENCE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. APPEARS
THAT A SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH AT LEAST SOME OF THE AREA
LATER THU NIGHT INTO FRI...QUESTION IS WITH REGARD TO HOW FAR SOUTH
IT MAKES IT BEFORE STALLING/DISSIPATING. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A
CLIMO-TYPE OF SCENARIO WHERE THE FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS OVER FAR
SRN VA/NC LATE FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. BEST CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE
THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI AM WITH THE FRONT...THEN WILL KEEP CHC POPS (30-
40%) ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FA FRI-SUN WITH THE FRONT
STALLED TO OUR SOUTH AND THE OPPORTUNITY FOR LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 80S TO LWR 90S
AND LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING...AND VFR
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY. SOME FOG EVIDENT IN OBSERVATIONS
OVER THE PIEDMONT AND NORTH OF KRIC...WHERE RAIN FALL YESTERDAY.
THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z. SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTN/EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHC AT KRIC. MAINLY VFR CONDS
EXPECTED WED/THU... AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WESTWARD INTO THE
REGION. NEXT CHC FOR SCTD SHWRS/TSTMS AND ASSOCIATED LOWER
CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL BE LATE THU INTO FRI WHEN A COLD FRONT PUSHES
INTO AND ACRS THE AREA.

MAINLY VFR FLYING WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE SAT-MON EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SFC HI PRES WILL STRETCH FM THE ERN GRT LKS SE TO OFF THE MID
ATLC CST TODAY THRU WED. EXPECT S/SE WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT THRU
THE PERIOD...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT AND SEAS 2-3 FT. A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE WTRS LATE THU...THEN PUSHES ACRS THE WTRS THU NGT
THRU FRI MORNG. SSE WINDS 5 TO 15 KT EXPECTED THU-THU NGT. WAVES
1-2 FT AND SEAS 2-3 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...TMG/WRS
MARINE...TMG



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281428
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1028 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH THE NEXT
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BEGINS TO EXPAND A BIT FARTHER E INTO THE WRN
OH/TN VLYS BY LATE TODAY...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES
JUST N OF THE FA. NW FLOW ALOFT CONTS...W/ WEAK SFC HIGH PRES
JUST OFF THE COAST. EXPECTING AFTN CONVECTION TO BE INITIATED
PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN W OF I 95...AND POTENTIALLY DRIFTS
EWD DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVE. WILL CARRY 30-50% POPS W...LOWERING TO
SLGT CHC (20%) POPS ALONG THE COAST. HIGH TEMPS FROM THE MID 80S
AT THE BEACHES TO THE UPR 80S-AROUND 90F ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISOLD-SCT CONVECTION SLO TO DISSIPATE TNGT...ESP W OF I 95. OTRW
VRB CLDS-PARTLY CLOUDY. W/ LO TEMPS 70-75F.

WEDNESDAY...
UPR LVL RIDGING CONTS TO EXPAND EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT ANY AFTN CONVECTION WHILE MAX
TEMPS WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES. HAVE CHC POPS (25-30%) ALONG AND
WEST OF I-95. PARTLY SUNNY W/ HI TEMPS IN THE U80S-L90S...WITH
L-M80S AT THE BEACHES. MILD WED NGT W/ LO TEMPS IN THE L-M70S.

THURSDAY...
UPR RIDGING RETROGRADES A BIT THURSDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT...CHC POPS (30-40%) WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE AFTN...LOWERING TO ~20% AT THE COAST. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW MAX
TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE L90S...EXCEPT 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PATTERN INITIALLY BEGINS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SW CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTING ACRS
HUDSON BAY CANADA. GFS/ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRI/SAT...THEN
FLATTEN OUT SUN/MON. ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST STATES...MODELS
SHOW A GENERAL PERSISTENCE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. APPEARS
THAT A SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH AT LEAST SOME OF THE AREA
LATER THU NIGHT INTO FRI...QUESTION IS WITH REGARD TO HOW FAR SOUTH
IT MAKES IT BEFORE STALLING/DISSIPATING. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A
CLIMO-TYPE OF SCENARIO WHERE THE FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS OVER FAR
SRN VA/NC LATE FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. BEST CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE
THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI AM WITH THE FRONT...THEN WILL KEEP CHC POPS (30-
40%) ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FA FRI-SUN WITH THE FRONT
STALLED TO OUR SOUTH AND THE OPPORTUNITY FOR LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 80S TO LWR 90S
AND LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING...AND VFR
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY. SOME FOG EVIDENT IN OBSERVATIONS
OVER THE PIEDMONT AND NORTH OF KRIC...WHERE RAIN FALL YESTERDAY.
THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z. SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTN/EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHC AT KRIC. MAINLY VFR CONDS
EXPECTED WED/THU... AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WESTWARD INTO THE
REGION. NEXT CHC FOR SCTD SHWRS/TSTMS AND ASSOCIATED LOWER
CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL BE LATE THU INTO FRI WHEN A COLD FRONT PUSHES
INTO AND ACRS THE AREA.

MAINLY VFR FLYING WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE SAT-MON EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SFC HI PRES WILL STRETCH FM THE ERN GRT LKS SE TO OFF THE MID
ATLC CST TODAY THRU WED. EXPECT S/SE WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT THRU
THE PERIOD...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT AND SEAS 2-3 FT. A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE WTRS LATE THU...THEN PUSHES ACRS THE WTRS THU NGT
THRU FRI MORNG. SSE WINDS 5 TO 15 KT EXPECTED THU-THU NGT. WAVES
1-2 FT AND SEAS 2-3 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...TMG/WRS
MARINE...TMG



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281428
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1028 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH THE NEXT
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BEGINS TO EXPAND A BIT FARTHER E INTO THE WRN
OH/TN VLYS BY LATE TODAY...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES
JUST N OF THE FA. NW FLOW ALOFT CONTS...W/ WEAK SFC HIGH PRES
JUST OFF THE COAST. EXPECTING AFTN CONVECTION TO BE INITIATED
PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN W OF I 95...AND POTENTIALLY DRIFTS
EWD DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVE. WILL CARRY 30-50% POPS W...LOWERING TO
SLGT CHC (20%) POPS ALONG THE COAST. HIGH TEMPS FROM THE MID 80S
AT THE BEACHES TO THE UPR 80S-AROUND 90F ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISOLD-SCT CONVECTION SLO TO DISSIPATE TNGT...ESP W OF I 95. OTRW
VRB CLDS-PARTLY CLOUDY. W/ LO TEMPS 70-75F.

WEDNESDAY...
UPR LVL RIDGING CONTS TO EXPAND EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT ANY AFTN CONVECTION WHILE MAX
TEMPS WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES. HAVE CHC POPS (25-30%) ALONG AND
WEST OF I-95. PARTLY SUNNY W/ HI TEMPS IN THE U80S-L90S...WITH
L-M80S AT THE BEACHES. MILD WED NGT W/ LO TEMPS IN THE L-M70S.

THURSDAY...
UPR RIDGING RETROGRADES A BIT THURSDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT...CHC POPS (30-40%) WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE AFTN...LOWERING TO ~20% AT THE COAST. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW MAX
TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE L90S...EXCEPT 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PATTERN INITIALLY BEGINS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SW CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTING ACRS
HUDSON BAY CANADA. GFS/ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRI/SAT...THEN
FLATTEN OUT SUN/MON. ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST STATES...MODELS
SHOW A GENERAL PERSISTENCE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. APPEARS
THAT A SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH AT LEAST SOME OF THE AREA
LATER THU NIGHT INTO FRI...QUESTION IS WITH REGARD TO HOW FAR SOUTH
IT MAKES IT BEFORE STALLING/DISSIPATING. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A
CLIMO-TYPE OF SCENARIO WHERE THE FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS OVER FAR
SRN VA/NC LATE FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. BEST CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE
THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI AM WITH THE FRONT...THEN WILL KEEP CHC POPS (30-
40%) ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FA FRI-SUN WITH THE FRONT
STALLED TO OUR SOUTH AND THE OPPORTUNITY FOR LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 80S TO LWR 90S
AND LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING...AND VFR
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY. SOME FOG EVIDENT IN OBSERVATIONS
OVER THE PIEDMONT AND NORTH OF KRIC...WHERE RAIN FALL YESTERDAY.
THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z. SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTN/EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHC AT KRIC. MAINLY VFR CONDS
EXPECTED WED/THU... AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WESTWARD INTO THE
REGION. NEXT CHC FOR SCTD SHWRS/TSTMS AND ASSOCIATED LOWER
CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL BE LATE THU INTO FRI WHEN A COLD FRONT PUSHES
INTO AND ACRS THE AREA.

MAINLY VFR FLYING WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE SAT-MON EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SFC HI PRES WILL STRETCH FM THE ERN GRT LKS SE TO OFF THE MID
ATLC CST TODAY THRU WED. EXPECT S/SE WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT THRU
THE PERIOD...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT AND SEAS 2-3 FT. A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE WTRS LATE THU...THEN PUSHES ACRS THE WTRS THU NGT
THRU FRI MORNG. SSE WINDS 5 TO 15 KT EXPECTED THU-THU NGT. WAVES
1-2 FT AND SEAS 2-3 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...TMG/WRS
MARINE...TMG



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281428
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1028 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH THE NEXT
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BEGINS TO EXPAND A BIT FARTHER E INTO THE WRN
OH/TN VLYS BY LATE TODAY...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES
JUST N OF THE FA. NW FLOW ALOFT CONTS...W/ WEAK SFC HIGH PRES
JUST OFF THE COAST. EXPECTING AFTN CONVECTION TO BE INITIATED
PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN W OF I 95...AND POTENTIALLY DRIFTS
EWD DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVE. WILL CARRY 30-50% POPS W...LOWERING TO
SLGT CHC (20%) POPS ALONG THE COAST. HIGH TEMPS FROM THE MID 80S
AT THE BEACHES TO THE UPR 80S-AROUND 90F ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISOLD-SCT CONVECTION SLO TO DISSIPATE TNGT...ESP W OF I 95. OTRW
VRB CLDS-PARTLY CLOUDY. W/ LO TEMPS 70-75F.

WEDNESDAY...
UPR LVL RIDGING CONTS TO EXPAND EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT ANY AFTN CONVECTION WHILE MAX
TEMPS WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES. HAVE CHC POPS (25-30%) ALONG AND
WEST OF I-95. PARTLY SUNNY W/ HI TEMPS IN THE U80S-L90S...WITH
L-M80S AT THE BEACHES. MILD WED NGT W/ LO TEMPS IN THE L-M70S.

THURSDAY...
UPR RIDGING RETROGRADES A BIT THURSDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT...CHC POPS (30-40%) WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE AFTN...LOWERING TO ~20% AT THE COAST. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW MAX
TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE L90S...EXCEPT 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PATTERN INITIALLY BEGINS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SW CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTING ACRS
HUDSON BAY CANADA. GFS/ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRI/SAT...THEN
FLATTEN OUT SUN/MON. ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST STATES...MODELS
SHOW A GENERAL PERSISTENCE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. APPEARS
THAT A SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH AT LEAST SOME OF THE AREA
LATER THU NIGHT INTO FRI...QUESTION IS WITH REGARD TO HOW FAR SOUTH
IT MAKES IT BEFORE STALLING/DISSIPATING. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A
CLIMO-TYPE OF SCENARIO WHERE THE FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS OVER FAR
SRN VA/NC LATE FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. BEST CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE
THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI AM WITH THE FRONT...THEN WILL KEEP CHC POPS (30-
40%) ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FA FRI-SUN WITH THE FRONT
STALLED TO OUR SOUTH AND THE OPPORTUNITY FOR LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 80S TO LWR 90S
AND LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING...AND VFR
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY. SOME FOG EVIDENT IN OBSERVATIONS
OVER THE PIEDMONT AND NORTH OF KRIC...WHERE RAIN FALL YESTERDAY.
THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z. SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTN/EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHC AT KRIC. MAINLY VFR CONDS
EXPECTED WED/THU... AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WESTWARD INTO THE
REGION. NEXT CHC FOR SCTD SHWRS/TSTMS AND ASSOCIATED LOWER
CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL BE LATE THU INTO FRI WHEN A COLD FRONT PUSHES
INTO AND ACRS THE AREA.

MAINLY VFR FLYING WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE SAT-MON EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SFC HI PRES WILL STRETCH FM THE ERN GRT LKS SE TO OFF THE MID
ATLC CST TODAY THRU WED. EXPECT S/SE WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT THRU
THE PERIOD...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT AND SEAS 2-3 FT. A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE WTRS LATE THU...THEN PUSHES ACRS THE WTRS THU NGT
THRU FRI MORNG. SSE WINDS 5 TO 15 KT EXPECTED THU-THU NGT. WAVES
1-2 FT AND SEAS 2-3 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...TMG/WRS
MARINE...TMG



000
FXUS61 KPHI 281344
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
944 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COOL FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COOL FRONT MAY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST NEXT MONDAY. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THIS WEEK WILL BE MONITORED
FOR POSSIBLE NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LAST OF THE LOW CLOUDS WERE LIFTING AND DISSIPATING AROUND
930 AM.

THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT ARRIVED ON SUNDAY NIGHT
EXTENDED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE UPPER DELMARVA
PENINSULA THIS MORNING. THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
NORTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. MEANWHILE, WEAK AREAS HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OFF THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST.

AS THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH
OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ITS VICINITY. HOWEVER,
WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY,
DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND. DEVELOPING SEA AND BAY BREEZE
BOUNDARIES MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO RESULT IN ISOLATED
CONVECTION. MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE TO
ABOUT 700 TO 1100 J/KG IN THOSE AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 90 AT MOST
LOCATIONS IN OUR FORECAST AREA. READINGS SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER
THAN THAT IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN AND ALONG THE COAST. DEW POINT
READINGS SHOULD FAVOR THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. THE RESULTING
MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S.

TODAY MAY BE THE FIRST OF AT LEAST SEVEN CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF 90
PLUS TEMPERATURE READINGS IN MUCH OF OUR REGION. THE MAXIMUM
NUMBER OF CONSECUTIVE 90 PLUS DAYS AT PHILADELPHIA IS 18 SET FROM
JULY 29 THROUGH AUGUST 15, 1988. THE 8 TO 14-DAY OUTLOOK FOR THE
PERIOD FROM AUGUST 4-10 SUGGESTS A COOLING TREND AT THAT TIME, SO
WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE APPROACHING THE RECORD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE OVER OUR AREA TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY. THIS STILL MAINTAINS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, BUT
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW AT THE SURFACE. DUE TO A LACK OF ORGANIZED
SHORT WAVES TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT, AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM INITIATED PROBABLY BY ANY LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE /I.E.
SEA AND BAY BREEZES/ ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE EARLY IN THE
EVENING. IN ADDITION, ANY CUMULUS FIELD IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN AND
DISSIPATE WITH PERHAPS SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS OCCURRING AT TIMES.

IT WILL BE A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA AS THE
SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD RECOVER FROM ANY DAYTIME HEATING
INFLUENCE. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT TO CALM WINDS, A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER AND NOT A LOT OF CLOUDINESS COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS/FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE.

AS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, A MOS BLEND WAS GENERALLY USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
**POTENTIAL SEVEN DAY OR LONGER HEAT WAVE FOR PHL BEGINNING
TODAY AND PROBABLY CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY OR TUESDAY**

500 MB: HIGH PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE THE DOMINANT
INFLUENCE HERE THROUGH THURSDAY. OTHERWISE A TROUGH TRIES TO
EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN STATES NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES: THE MONTH OF JULY SO FAR HAS BEEN NEAR NORMAL
(TEMPS). THIS EXTENDED PERIOD WILL SEE CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES ABOVE
NORMAL EVERY DAY. TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN MORE THAN 5 DEGREES ABOVE NEXT MONDAY
AUGUST 3.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/28
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY, 00Z/28 MEX MOS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN THE 0521Z/28 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF
MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEW POINT-SKY-WIND FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

THE DAILIES...

WHILE NOT IN THE SYNOPSIS DUE TO ITS POTENTIAL TO CAUSE
CONFUSION... AND ITS LACK OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACT, IT LOOKS
LIKE THERE WILL BE A LEFTOVER WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE NEAR
I-95 THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A MORE STRUCTURED WEAK COOL FRONTAL
PASSAGE OCCURS THURSDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...RELATIVELY DRY HEAT. PWAT ~1.35 INCHES. HEAT INDEX
BELOW 100F. SOUTHWEST WIND GUST 15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON EXCEPT
WEAK SEA BREEZES COASTAL LOCATIONS BEGINNING AROUND NOON. USED THE
WARMER MAV TEMPS FOR THE DAYTIME FCST. FCST MAX TEMPS MAY BE A
DEGREE TOO LOW. OVERALL CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...APPROACHING WET BULB FRONT WITH THE 850 MB HOT PROD OF
18-20C AHEAD OF THE CF AND A QUICK START TO 90F THURSDAY MORNING.
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH HIGHER THAN
WEDNESDAY (BY ALMOST 10F). RAISED THE 00Z/28 NCEP GUIDANCE USING
THE 00Z/28 ECMWF BUT DID SO WITH LESS THAN IDEAL CONFIDENCE.

MLCAPE BUILDS IN CENTRAL PA TO 1400J BY 18Z THU AND 600J NJ.
APPEARS UNLIKELY TO HAVE ANY SHOWERS OR TSTMS GOING IN OUR AREA
BEFORE 16Z AND PROBABLY NOT TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR TIL NEAR 22Z.
THAT SHOULD ALLOW MORE WARMING THAN MODELED AND HI NEARING 100F BY
18Z. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW RECORDS WHICH ARE 97-99F EXCEPT
KMPO 90. SSW WIND GUST 15-20 MPH DURING THE AFTN.

WHAT WOULD PREVENT THE HEAT INDEX REACHING 100F? THURSDAY MORNING
SHOWERS AND TSTMS VCNTY KPHL SOUTH AND EAST WOULD LESSEN SUNSHINE
AND MAKE IT MUCH MORE DIFFICULT FOR THE AIR TEMPERATURE TO EXCEED
90F. THERE ARE 00Z/28 EC/GFS MODEL HINTS OF A WEAK INSTABILITY
BURST TRYING TO SHOVE NEWD INTO THE DELMARVA AND SNJ THURSDAY
MORNING AND PRODUCE MORNING SHOWERS.

A SCT-BKN BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND PASS
ACROSS THE AREA THU AFTN/NIGHT. PWAT INCREASES TO 1.9 INCHES ALONG
THE I- 95 CORRIDOR DURING THURSDAY EVENING SO HEAVY RAINERS AND
LOCAL POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING ANTICIPATED AND CANT RULE OUT
ISOLATED FF. WHILE TIMING IS EXCELLENT FOR STRONG TSTM
DEVELOPMENT, SVR UNLIKELY SINCE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS PRETTY WEAK
AND LAPSE RATES VIA TT INDEX LOOK PRETTY POOR. SREF MODELED PWAT
BACK EDGE OF 1.5 INCHES DOWN TO A KDOV- KBLM LINE BY 12Z FRIDAY.

FRIDAY...DEW POINTS LOWER BY 10 TO 12F ON LIGHT NLY FLOW AND AIR
TEMPS DOWN 2-3F. BLUE MOON AND POTENTIALLY NICE HOT SUMMER DAY FOR
THE END OF JULY. ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HEATS UP MAYBE A BIT MORE EACH DAY ON WSW
AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS 10-15 MPH. A NICE WEEKEND SINCE AFTERNOON
DEW POINTS STILL REMAIN PRETTY MODEST...LOW TO MID 60S. SMALL CHC
OF A TSTM NE PA SAT EVE IN WAA - THIS PER 1400J NEAR KHZL MIDDAY
REACHING KBLM BY 00Z/SUNDAY. AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT MONDAY...MORE HUMID AND CONTD HOT. 2000J MLCAPE I95 SEWD.
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE ON THE FCST DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING, OTHERWISE
VFR WITH A CLOUD BASE MOSTLY BETWEEN 3500-5000 FEET. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY ESPECIALLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF KPHL. SEA/BAY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
MID AFTERNOON AND AFFECT KACY, KMIV AND KILG WITH WINDS TURNING
MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER DUE TO THE MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE,
SOME LATE NIGHT LOW CLOUDS/FOG MAY DEVELOP, AND OUR CONFIDENCE IS
ON THE LOWER SIDE AT THIS TIME. LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER, THE
HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS MAY RESULT IN SOME LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING MVFR OR IFR LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG. LIGHT SW
WIND.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY RESULT IN MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
GRADIENT SW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT THU AFTN.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. LIGHT WIND, MAINLY NORTH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH SEA BREEZES BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A SEA
AND BAY BREEZE DEVELOPS. THE SEAS SHOULD RUN IN THE 1-3 FEET RANGE
THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A LONG PERIOD /AROUND 10 SECONDS/ SWELL FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A SOUTHERLY WIND AT 10-15 MPH WITH SOME
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT ALONG WITH WAVES OF AROUND 2 FEET
IN THE SURF ZONE ARE FORECAST TODAY. THE SETUP IS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY AND THEREFORE WE WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE RISK OF
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR BOTH THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE
COASTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KACY RAINFALL 6.33 RANKED 15TH WETTEST WITH THE POR DATING BACK
THROUGH 1874. WETTEST 13.09 IN 1959.

KABE MAY EXPERIENCE NEAR RECORD WARMTH ON WEDNESDAY JULY 29. THE
RECORD THERE IS IS 96 SET IN 1954. RIGHT NOW WE`RE FCSTG 94.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
RIP CURRENTS...GORSE
CLIMATE...DRAG




000
FXUS61 KPHI 281344
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
944 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COOL FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COOL FRONT MAY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST NEXT MONDAY. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THIS WEEK WILL BE MONITORED
FOR POSSIBLE NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LAST OF THE LOW CLOUDS WERE LIFTING AND DISSIPATING AROUND
930 AM.

THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT ARRIVED ON SUNDAY NIGHT
EXTENDED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE UPPER DELMARVA
PENINSULA THIS MORNING. THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
NORTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. MEANWHILE, WEAK AREAS HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OFF THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST.

AS THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH
OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ITS VICINITY. HOWEVER,
WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY,
DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND. DEVELOPING SEA AND BAY BREEZE
BOUNDARIES MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO RESULT IN ISOLATED
CONVECTION. MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE TO
ABOUT 700 TO 1100 J/KG IN THOSE AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 90 AT MOST
LOCATIONS IN OUR FORECAST AREA. READINGS SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER
THAN THAT IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN AND ALONG THE COAST. DEW POINT
READINGS SHOULD FAVOR THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. THE RESULTING
MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S.

TODAY MAY BE THE FIRST OF AT LEAST SEVEN CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF 90
PLUS TEMPERATURE READINGS IN MUCH OF OUR REGION. THE MAXIMUM
NUMBER OF CONSECUTIVE 90 PLUS DAYS AT PHILADELPHIA IS 18 SET FROM
JULY 29 THROUGH AUGUST 15, 1988. THE 8 TO 14-DAY OUTLOOK FOR THE
PERIOD FROM AUGUST 4-10 SUGGESTS A COOLING TREND AT THAT TIME, SO
WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE APPROACHING THE RECORD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE OVER OUR AREA TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY. THIS STILL MAINTAINS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, BUT
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW AT THE SURFACE. DUE TO A LACK OF ORGANIZED
SHORT WAVES TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT, AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM INITIATED PROBABLY BY ANY LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE /I.E.
SEA AND BAY BREEZES/ ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE EARLY IN THE
EVENING. IN ADDITION, ANY CUMULUS FIELD IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN AND
DISSIPATE WITH PERHAPS SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS OCCURRING AT TIMES.

IT WILL BE A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA AS THE
SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD RECOVER FROM ANY DAYTIME HEATING
INFLUENCE. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT TO CALM WINDS, A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER AND NOT A LOT OF CLOUDINESS COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS/FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE.

AS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, A MOS BLEND WAS GENERALLY USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
**POTENTIAL SEVEN DAY OR LONGER HEAT WAVE FOR PHL BEGINNING
TODAY AND PROBABLY CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY OR TUESDAY**

500 MB: HIGH PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE THE DOMINANT
INFLUENCE HERE THROUGH THURSDAY. OTHERWISE A TROUGH TRIES TO
EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN STATES NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES: THE MONTH OF JULY SO FAR HAS BEEN NEAR NORMAL
(TEMPS). THIS EXTENDED PERIOD WILL SEE CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES ABOVE
NORMAL EVERY DAY. TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN MORE THAN 5 DEGREES ABOVE NEXT MONDAY
AUGUST 3.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/28
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY, 00Z/28 MEX MOS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN THE 0521Z/28 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF
MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEW POINT-SKY-WIND FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

THE DAILIES...

WHILE NOT IN THE SYNOPSIS DUE TO ITS POTENTIAL TO CAUSE
CONFUSION... AND ITS LACK OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACT, IT LOOKS
LIKE THERE WILL BE A LEFTOVER WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE NEAR
I-95 THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A MORE STRUCTURED WEAK COOL FRONTAL
PASSAGE OCCURS THURSDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...RELATIVELY DRY HEAT. PWAT ~1.35 INCHES. HEAT INDEX
BELOW 100F. SOUTHWEST WIND GUST 15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON EXCEPT
WEAK SEA BREEZES COASTAL LOCATIONS BEGINNING AROUND NOON. USED THE
WARMER MAV TEMPS FOR THE DAYTIME FCST. FCST MAX TEMPS MAY BE A
DEGREE TOO LOW. OVERALL CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...APPROACHING WET BULB FRONT WITH THE 850 MB HOT PROD OF
18-20C AHEAD OF THE CF AND A QUICK START TO 90F THURSDAY MORNING.
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH HIGHER THAN
WEDNESDAY (BY ALMOST 10F). RAISED THE 00Z/28 NCEP GUIDANCE USING
THE 00Z/28 ECMWF BUT DID SO WITH LESS THAN IDEAL CONFIDENCE.

MLCAPE BUILDS IN CENTRAL PA TO 1400J BY 18Z THU AND 600J NJ.
APPEARS UNLIKELY TO HAVE ANY SHOWERS OR TSTMS GOING IN OUR AREA
BEFORE 16Z AND PROBABLY NOT TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR TIL NEAR 22Z.
THAT SHOULD ALLOW MORE WARMING THAN MODELED AND HI NEARING 100F BY
18Z. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW RECORDS WHICH ARE 97-99F EXCEPT
KMPO 90. SSW WIND GUST 15-20 MPH DURING THE AFTN.

WHAT WOULD PREVENT THE HEAT INDEX REACHING 100F? THURSDAY MORNING
SHOWERS AND TSTMS VCNTY KPHL SOUTH AND EAST WOULD LESSEN SUNSHINE
AND MAKE IT MUCH MORE DIFFICULT FOR THE AIR TEMPERATURE TO EXCEED
90F. THERE ARE 00Z/28 EC/GFS MODEL HINTS OF A WEAK INSTABILITY
BURST TRYING TO SHOVE NEWD INTO THE DELMARVA AND SNJ THURSDAY
MORNING AND PRODUCE MORNING SHOWERS.

A SCT-BKN BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND PASS
ACROSS THE AREA THU AFTN/NIGHT. PWAT INCREASES TO 1.9 INCHES ALONG
THE I- 95 CORRIDOR DURING THURSDAY EVENING SO HEAVY RAINERS AND
LOCAL POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING ANTICIPATED AND CANT RULE OUT
ISOLATED FF. WHILE TIMING IS EXCELLENT FOR STRONG TSTM
DEVELOPMENT, SVR UNLIKELY SINCE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS PRETTY WEAK
AND LAPSE RATES VIA TT INDEX LOOK PRETTY POOR. SREF MODELED PWAT
BACK EDGE OF 1.5 INCHES DOWN TO A KDOV- KBLM LINE BY 12Z FRIDAY.

FRIDAY...DEW POINTS LOWER BY 10 TO 12F ON LIGHT NLY FLOW AND AIR
TEMPS DOWN 2-3F. BLUE MOON AND POTENTIALLY NICE HOT SUMMER DAY FOR
THE END OF JULY. ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HEATS UP MAYBE A BIT MORE EACH DAY ON WSW
AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS 10-15 MPH. A NICE WEEKEND SINCE AFTERNOON
DEW POINTS STILL REMAIN PRETTY MODEST...LOW TO MID 60S. SMALL CHC
OF A TSTM NE PA SAT EVE IN WAA - THIS PER 1400J NEAR KHZL MIDDAY
REACHING KBLM BY 00Z/SUNDAY. AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT MONDAY...MORE HUMID AND CONTD HOT. 2000J MLCAPE I95 SEWD.
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE ON THE FCST DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING, OTHERWISE
VFR WITH A CLOUD BASE MOSTLY BETWEEN 3500-5000 FEET. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY ESPECIALLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF KPHL. SEA/BAY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
MID AFTERNOON AND AFFECT KACY, KMIV AND KILG WITH WINDS TURNING
MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER DUE TO THE MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE,
SOME LATE NIGHT LOW CLOUDS/FOG MAY DEVELOP, AND OUR CONFIDENCE IS
ON THE LOWER SIDE AT THIS TIME. LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER, THE
HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS MAY RESULT IN SOME LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING MVFR OR IFR LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG. LIGHT SW
WIND.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY RESULT IN MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
GRADIENT SW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT THU AFTN.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. LIGHT WIND, MAINLY NORTH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH SEA BREEZES BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A SEA
AND BAY BREEZE DEVELOPS. THE SEAS SHOULD RUN IN THE 1-3 FEET RANGE
THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A LONG PERIOD /AROUND 10 SECONDS/ SWELL FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A SOUTHERLY WIND AT 10-15 MPH WITH SOME
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT ALONG WITH WAVES OF AROUND 2 FEET
IN THE SURF ZONE ARE FORECAST TODAY. THE SETUP IS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY AND THEREFORE WE WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE RISK OF
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR BOTH THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE
COASTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KACY RAINFALL 6.33 RANKED 15TH WETTEST WITH THE POR DATING BACK
THROUGH 1874. WETTEST 13.09 IN 1959.

KABE MAY EXPERIENCE NEAR RECORD WARMTH ON WEDNESDAY JULY 29. THE
RECORD THERE IS IS 96 SET IN 1954. RIGHT NOW WE`RE FCSTG 94.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
RIP CURRENTS...GORSE
CLIMATE...DRAG




000
FXUS61 KPHI 281344
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
944 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COOL FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COOL FRONT MAY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST NEXT MONDAY. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THIS WEEK WILL BE MONITORED
FOR POSSIBLE NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LAST OF THE LOW CLOUDS WERE LIFTING AND DISSIPATING AROUND
930 AM.

THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT ARRIVED ON SUNDAY NIGHT
EXTENDED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE UPPER DELMARVA
PENINSULA THIS MORNING. THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
NORTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. MEANWHILE, WEAK AREAS HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OFF THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST.

AS THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH
OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ITS VICINITY. HOWEVER,
WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY,
DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND. DEVELOPING SEA AND BAY BREEZE
BOUNDARIES MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO RESULT IN ISOLATED
CONVECTION. MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE TO
ABOUT 700 TO 1100 J/KG IN THOSE AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 90 AT MOST
LOCATIONS IN OUR FORECAST AREA. READINGS SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER
THAN THAT IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN AND ALONG THE COAST. DEW POINT
READINGS SHOULD FAVOR THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. THE RESULTING
MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S.

TODAY MAY BE THE FIRST OF AT LEAST SEVEN CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF 90
PLUS TEMPERATURE READINGS IN MUCH OF OUR REGION. THE MAXIMUM
NUMBER OF CONSECUTIVE 90 PLUS DAYS AT PHILADELPHIA IS 18 SET FROM
JULY 29 THROUGH AUGUST 15, 1988. THE 8 TO 14-DAY OUTLOOK FOR THE
PERIOD FROM AUGUST 4-10 SUGGESTS A COOLING TREND AT THAT TIME, SO
WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE APPROACHING THE RECORD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE OVER OUR AREA TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY. THIS STILL MAINTAINS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, BUT
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW AT THE SURFACE. DUE TO A LACK OF ORGANIZED
SHORT WAVES TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT, AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM INITIATED PROBABLY BY ANY LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE /I.E.
SEA AND BAY BREEZES/ ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE EARLY IN THE
EVENING. IN ADDITION, ANY CUMULUS FIELD IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN AND
DISSIPATE WITH PERHAPS SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS OCCURRING AT TIMES.

IT WILL BE A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA AS THE
SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD RECOVER FROM ANY DAYTIME HEATING
INFLUENCE. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT TO CALM WINDS, A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER AND NOT A LOT OF CLOUDINESS COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS/FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE.

AS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, A MOS BLEND WAS GENERALLY USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
**POTENTIAL SEVEN DAY OR LONGER HEAT WAVE FOR PHL BEGINNING
TODAY AND PROBABLY CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY OR TUESDAY**

500 MB: HIGH PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE THE DOMINANT
INFLUENCE HERE THROUGH THURSDAY. OTHERWISE A TROUGH TRIES TO
EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN STATES NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES: THE MONTH OF JULY SO FAR HAS BEEN NEAR NORMAL
(TEMPS). THIS EXTENDED PERIOD WILL SEE CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES ABOVE
NORMAL EVERY DAY. TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN MORE THAN 5 DEGREES ABOVE NEXT MONDAY
AUGUST 3.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/28
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY, 00Z/28 MEX MOS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN THE 0521Z/28 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF
MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEW POINT-SKY-WIND FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

THE DAILIES...

WHILE NOT IN THE SYNOPSIS DUE TO ITS POTENTIAL TO CAUSE
CONFUSION... AND ITS LACK OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACT, IT LOOKS
LIKE THERE WILL BE A LEFTOVER WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE NEAR
I-95 THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A MORE STRUCTURED WEAK COOL FRONTAL
PASSAGE OCCURS THURSDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...RELATIVELY DRY HEAT. PWAT ~1.35 INCHES. HEAT INDEX
BELOW 100F. SOUTHWEST WIND GUST 15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON EXCEPT
WEAK SEA BREEZES COASTAL LOCATIONS BEGINNING AROUND NOON. USED THE
WARMER MAV TEMPS FOR THE DAYTIME FCST. FCST MAX TEMPS MAY BE A
DEGREE TOO LOW. OVERALL CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...APPROACHING WET BULB FRONT WITH THE 850 MB HOT PROD OF
18-20C AHEAD OF THE CF AND A QUICK START TO 90F THURSDAY MORNING.
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH HIGHER THAN
WEDNESDAY (BY ALMOST 10F). RAISED THE 00Z/28 NCEP GUIDANCE USING
THE 00Z/28 ECMWF BUT DID SO WITH LESS THAN IDEAL CONFIDENCE.

MLCAPE BUILDS IN CENTRAL PA TO 1400J BY 18Z THU AND 600J NJ.
APPEARS UNLIKELY TO HAVE ANY SHOWERS OR TSTMS GOING IN OUR AREA
BEFORE 16Z AND PROBABLY NOT TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR TIL NEAR 22Z.
THAT SHOULD ALLOW MORE WARMING THAN MODELED AND HI NEARING 100F BY
18Z. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW RECORDS WHICH ARE 97-99F EXCEPT
KMPO 90. SSW WIND GUST 15-20 MPH DURING THE AFTN.

WHAT WOULD PREVENT THE HEAT INDEX REACHING 100F? THURSDAY MORNING
SHOWERS AND TSTMS VCNTY KPHL SOUTH AND EAST WOULD LESSEN SUNSHINE
AND MAKE IT MUCH MORE DIFFICULT FOR THE AIR TEMPERATURE TO EXCEED
90F. THERE ARE 00Z/28 EC/GFS MODEL HINTS OF A WEAK INSTABILITY
BURST TRYING TO SHOVE NEWD INTO THE DELMARVA AND SNJ THURSDAY
MORNING AND PRODUCE MORNING SHOWERS.

A SCT-BKN BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND PASS
ACROSS THE AREA THU AFTN/NIGHT. PWAT INCREASES TO 1.9 INCHES ALONG
THE I- 95 CORRIDOR DURING THURSDAY EVENING SO HEAVY RAINERS AND
LOCAL POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING ANTICIPATED AND CANT RULE OUT
ISOLATED FF. WHILE TIMING IS EXCELLENT FOR STRONG TSTM
DEVELOPMENT, SVR UNLIKELY SINCE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS PRETTY WEAK
AND LAPSE RATES VIA TT INDEX LOOK PRETTY POOR. SREF MODELED PWAT
BACK EDGE OF 1.5 INCHES DOWN TO A KDOV- KBLM LINE BY 12Z FRIDAY.

FRIDAY...DEW POINTS LOWER BY 10 TO 12F ON LIGHT NLY FLOW AND AIR
TEMPS DOWN 2-3F. BLUE MOON AND POTENTIALLY NICE HOT SUMMER DAY FOR
THE END OF JULY. ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HEATS UP MAYBE A BIT MORE EACH DAY ON WSW
AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS 10-15 MPH. A NICE WEEKEND SINCE AFTERNOON
DEW POINTS STILL REMAIN PRETTY MODEST...LOW TO MID 60S. SMALL CHC
OF A TSTM NE PA SAT EVE IN WAA - THIS PER 1400J NEAR KHZL MIDDAY
REACHING KBLM BY 00Z/SUNDAY. AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT MONDAY...MORE HUMID AND CONTD HOT. 2000J MLCAPE I95 SEWD.
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE ON THE FCST DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING, OTHERWISE
VFR WITH A CLOUD BASE MOSTLY BETWEEN 3500-5000 FEET. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY ESPECIALLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF KPHL. SEA/BAY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
MID AFTERNOON AND AFFECT KACY, KMIV AND KILG WITH WINDS TURNING
MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER DUE TO THE MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE,
SOME LATE NIGHT LOW CLOUDS/FOG MAY DEVELOP, AND OUR CONFIDENCE IS
ON THE LOWER SIDE AT THIS TIME. LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER, THE
HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS MAY RESULT IN SOME LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING MVFR OR IFR LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG. LIGHT SW
WIND.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY RESULT IN MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
GRADIENT SW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT THU AFTN.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. LIGHT WIND, MAINLY NORTH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH SEA BREEZES BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A SEA
AND BAY BREEZE DEVELOPS. THE SEAS SHOULD RUN IN THE 1-3 FEET RANGE
THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A LONG PERIOD /AROUND 10 SECONDS/ SWELL FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A SOUTHERLY WIND AT 10-15 MPH WITH SOME
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT ALONG WITH WAVES OF AROUND 2 FEET
IN THE SURF ZONE ARE FORECAST TODAY. THE SETUP IS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY AND THEREFORE WE WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE RISK OF
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR BOTH THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE
COASTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KACY RAINFALL 6.33 RANKED 15TH WETTEST WITH THE POR DATING BACK
THROUGH 1874. WETTEST 13.09 IN 1959.

KABE MAY EXPERIENCE NEAR RECORD WARMTH ON WEDNESDAY JULY 29. THE
RECORD THERE IS IS 96 SET IN 1954. RIGHT NOW WE`RE FCSTG 94.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
RIP CURRENTS...GORSE
CLIMATE...DRAG




000
FXUS61 KPHI 281344
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
944 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COOL FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COOL FRONT MAY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST NEXT MONDAY. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THIS WEEK WILL BE MONITORED
FOR POSSIBLE NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LAST OF THE LOW CLOUDS WERE LIFTING AND DISSIPATING AROUND
930 AM.

THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT ARRIVED ON SUNDAY NIGHT
EXTENDED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE UPPER DELMARVA
PENINSULA THIS MORNING. THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
NORTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. MEANWHILE, WEAK AREAS HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OFF THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST.

AS THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH
OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ITS VICINITY. HOWEVER,
WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY,
DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND. DEVELOPING SEA AND BAY BREEZE
BOUNDARIES MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO RESULT IN ISOLATED
CONVECTION. MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE TO
ABOUT 700 TO 1100 J/KG IN THOSE AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 90 AT MOST
LOCATIONS IN OUR FORECAST AREA. READINGS SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER
THAN THAT IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN AND ALONG THE COAST. DEW POINT
READINGS SHOULD FAVOR THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. THE RESULTING
MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S.

TODAY MAY BE THE FIRST OF AT LEAST SEVEN CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF 90
PLUS TEMPERATURE READINGS IN MUCH OF OUR REGION. THE MAXIMUM
NUMBER OF CONSECUTIVE 90 PLUS DAYS AT PHILADELPHIA IS 18 SET FROM
JULY 29 THROUGH AUGUST 15, 1988. THE 8 TO 14-DAY OUTLOOK FOR THE
PERIOD FROM AUGUST 4-10 SUGGESTS A COOLING TREND AT THAT TIME, SO
WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE APPROACHING THE RECORD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE OVER OUR AREA TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY. THIS STILL MAINTAINS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, BUT
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW AT THE SURFACE. DUE TO A LACK OF ORGANIZED
SHORT WAVES TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT, AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM INITIATED PROBABLY BY ANY LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE /I.E.
SEA AND BAY BREEZES/ ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE EARLY IN THE
EVENING. IN ADDITION, ANY CUMULUS FIELD IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN AND
DISSIPATE WITH PERHAPS SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS OCCURRING AT TIMES.

IT WILL BE A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA AS THE
SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD RECOVER FROM ANY DAYTIME HEATING
INFLUENCE. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT TO CALM WINDS, A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER AND NOT A LOT OF CLOUDINESS COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS/FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE.

AS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, A MOS BLEND WAS GENERALLY USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
**POTENTIAL SEVEN DAY OR LONGER HEAT WAVE FOR PHL BEGINNING
TODAY AND PROBABLY CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY OR TUESDAY**

500 MB: HIGH PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE THE DOMINANT
INFLUENCE HERE THROUGH THURSDAY. OTHERWISE A TROUGH TRIES TO
EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN STATES NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES: THE MONTH OF JULY SO FAR HAS BEEN NEAR NORMAL
(TEMPS). THIS EXTENDED PERIOD WILL SEE CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES ABOVE
NORMAL EVERY DAY. TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN MORE THAN 5 DEGREES ABOVE NEXT MONDAY
AUGUST 3.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/28
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY, 00Z/28 MEX MOS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN THE 0521Z/28 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF
MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEW POINT-SKY-WIND FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

THE DAILIES...

WHILE NOT IN THE SYNOPSIS DUE TO ITS POTENTIAL TO CAUSE
CONFUSION... AND ITS LACK OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACT, IT LOOKS
LIKE THERE WILL BE A LEFTOVER WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE NEAR
I-95 THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A MORE STRUCTURED WEAK COOL FRONTAL
PASSAGE OCCURS THURSDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...RELATIVELY DRY HEAT. PWAT ~1.35 INCHES. HEAT INDEX
BELOW 100F. SOUTHWEST WIND GUST 15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON EXCEPT
WEAK SEA BREEZES COASTAL LOCATIONS BEGINNING AROUND NOON. USED THE
WARMER MAV TEMPS FOR THE DAYTIME FCST. FCST MAX TEMPS MAY BE A
DEGREE TOO LOW. OVERALL CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...APPROACHING WET BULB FRONT WITH THE 850 MB HOT PROD OF
18-20C AHEAD OF THE CF AND A QUICK START TO 90F THURSDAY MORNING.
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH HIGHER THAN
WEDNESDAY (BY ALMOST 10F). RAISED THE 00Z/28 NCEP GUIDANCE USING
THE 00Z/28 ECMWF BUT DID SO WITH LESS THAN IDEAL CONFIDENCE.

MLCAPE BUILDS IN CENTRAL PA TO 1400J BY 18Z THU AND 600J NJ.
APPEARS UNLIKELY TO HAVE ANY SHOWERS OR TSTMS GOING IN OUR AREA
BEFORE 16Z AND PROBABLY NOT TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR TIL NEAR 22Z.
THAT SHOULD ALLOW MORE WARMING THAN MODELED AND HI NEARING 100F BY
18Z. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW RECORDS WHICH ARE 97-99F EXCEPT
KMPO 90. SSW WIND GUST 15-20 MPH DURING THE AFTN.

WHAT WOULD PREVENT THE HEAT INDEX REACHING 100F? THURSDAY MORNING
SHOWERS AND TSTMS VCNTY KPHL SOUTH AND EAST WOULD LESSEN SUNSHINE
AND MAKE IT MUCH MORE DIFFICULT FOR THE AIR TEMPERATURE TO EXCEED
90F. THERE ARE 00Z/28 EC/GFS MODEL HINTS OF A WEAK INSTABILITY
BURST TRYING TO SHOVE NEWD INTO THE DELMARVA AND SNJ THURSDAY
MORNING AND PRODUCE MORNING SHOWERS.

A SCT-BKN BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND PASS
ACROSS THE AREA THU AFTN/NIGHT. PWAT INCREASES TO 1.9 INCHES ALONG
THE I- 95 CORRIDOR DURING THURSDAY EVENING SO HEAVY RAINERS AND
LOCAL POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING ANTICIPATED AND CANT RULE OUT
ISOLATED FF. WHILE TIMING IS EXCELLENT FOR STRONG TSTM
DEVELOPMENT, SVR UNLIKELY SINCE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS PRETTY WEAK
AND LAPSE RATES VIA TT INDEX LOOK PRETTY POOR. SREF MODELED PWAT
BACK EDGE OF 1.5 INCHES DOWN TO A KDOV- KBLM LINE BY 12Z FRIDAY.

FRIDAY...DEW POINTS LOWER BY 10 TO 12F ON LIGHT NLY FLOW AND AIR
TEMPS DOWN 2-3F. BLUE MOON AND POTENTIALLY NICE HOT SUMMER DAY FOR
THE END OF JULY. ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HEATS UP MAYBE A BIT MORE EACH DAY ON WSW
AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS 10-15 MPH. A NICE WEEKEND SINCE AFTERNOON
DEW POINTS STILL REMAIN PRETTY MODEST...LOW TO MID 60S. SMALL CHC
OF A TSTM NE PA SAT EVE IN WAA - THIS PER 1400J NEAR KHZL MIDDAY
REACHING KBLM BY 00Z/SUNDAY. AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT MONDAY...MORE HUMID AND CONTD HOT. 2000J MLCAPE I95 SEWD.
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE ON THE FCST DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING, OTHERWISE
VFR WITH A CLOUD BASE MOSTLY BETWEEN 3500-5000 FEET. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY ESPECIALLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF KPHL. SEA/BAY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
MID AFTERNOON AND AFFECT KACY, KMIV AND KILG WITH WINDS TURNING
MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER DUE TO THE MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE,
SOME LATE NIGHT LOW CLOUDS/FOG MAY DEVELOP, AND OUR CONFIDENCE IS
ON THE LOWER SIDE AT THIS TIME. LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER, THE
HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS MAY RESULT IN SOME LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING MVFR OR IFR LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG. LIGHT SW
WIND.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY RESULT IN MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
GRADIENT SW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT THU AFTN.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. LIGHT WIND, MAINLY NORTH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH SEA BREEZES BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A SEA
AND BAY BREEZE DEVELOPS. THE SEAS SHOULD RUN IN THE 1-3 FEET RANGE
THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A LONG PERIOD /AROUND 10 SECONDS/ SWELL FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A SOUTHERLY WIND AT 10-15 MPH WITH SOME
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT ALONG WITH WAVES OF AROUND 2 FEET
IN THE SURF ZONE ARE FORECAST TODAY. THE SETUP IS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY AND THEREFORE WE WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE RISK OF
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR BOTH THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE
COASTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KACY RAINFALL 6.33 RANKED 15TH WETTEST WITH THE POR DATING BACK
THROUGH 1874. WETTEST 13.09 IN 1959.

KABE MAY EXPERIENCE NEAR RECORD WARMTH ON WEDNESDAY JULY 29. THE
RECORD THERE IS IS 96 SET IN 1954. RIGHT NOW WE`RE FCSTG 94.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
RIP CURRENTS...GORSE
CLIMATE...DRAG




000
FXUS61 KPHI 281344
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
944 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COOL FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COOL FRONT MAY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST NEXT MONDAY. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THIS WEEK WILL BE MONITORED
FOR POSSIBLE NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LAST OF THE LOW CLOUDS WERE LIFTING AND DISSIPATING AROUND
930 AM.

THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT ARRIVED ON SUNDAY NIGHT
EXTENDED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE UPPER DELMARVA
PENINSULA THIS MORNING. THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
NORTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. MEANWHILE, WEAK AREAS HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OFF THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST.

AS THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH
OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ITS VICINITY. HOWEVER,
WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY,
DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND. DEVELOPING SEA AND BAY BREEZE
BOUNDARIES MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO RESULT IN ISOLATED
CONVECTION. MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE TO
ABOUT 700 TO 1100 J/KG IN THOSE AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 90 AT MOST
LOCATIONS IN OUR FORECAST AREA. READINGS SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER
THAN THAT IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN AND ALONG THE COAST. DEW POINT
READINGS SHOULD FAVOR THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. THE RESULTING
MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S.

TODAY MAY BE THE FIRST OF AT LEAST SEVEN CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF 90
PLUS TEMPERATURE READINGS IN MUCH OF OUR REGION. THE MAXIMUM
NUMBER OF CONSECUTIVE 90 PLUS DAYS AT PHILADELPHIA IS 18 SET FROM
JULY 29 THROUGH AUGUST 15, 1988. THE 8 TO 14-DAY OUTLOOK FOR THE
PERIOD FROM AUGUST 4-10 SUGGESTS A COOLING TREND AT THAT TIME, SO
WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE APPROACHING THE RECORD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE OVER OUR AREA TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY. THIS STILL MAINTAINS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, BUT
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW AT THE SURFACE. DUE TO A LACK OF ORGANIZED
SHORT WAVES TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT, AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM INITIATED PROBABLY BY ANY LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE /I.E.
SEA AND BAY BREEZES/ ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE EARLY IN THE
EVENING. IN ADDITION, ANY CUMULUS FIELD IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN AND
DISSIPATE WITH PERHAPS SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS OCCURRING AT TIMES.

IT WILL BE A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA AS THE
SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD RECOVER FROM ANY DAYTIME HEATING
INFLUENCE. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT TO CALM WINDS, A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER AND NOT A LOT OF CLOUDINESS COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS/FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE.

AS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, A MOS BLEND WAS GENERALLY USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
**POTENTIAL SEVEN DAY OR LONGER HEAT WAVE FOR PHL BEGINNING
TODAY AND PROBABLY CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY OR TUESDAY**

500 MB: HIGH PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE THE DOMINANT
INFLUENCE HERE THROUGH THURSDAY. OTHERWISE A TROUGH TRIES TO
EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN STATES NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES: THE MONTH OF JULY SO FAR HAS BEEN NEAR NORMAL
(TEMPS). THIS EXTENDED PERIOD WILL SEE CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES ABOVE
NORMAL EVERY DAY. TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN MORE THAN 5 DEGREES ABOVE NEXT MONDAY
AUGUST 3.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/28
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY, 00Z/28 MEX MOS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN THE 0521Z/28 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF
MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEW POINT-SKY-WIND FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

THE DAILIES...

WHILE NOT IN THE SYNOPSIS DUE TO ITS POTENTIAL TO CAUSE
CONFUSION... AND ITS LACK OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACT, IT LOOKS
LIKE THERE WILL BE A LEFTOVER WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE NEAR
I-95 THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A MORE STRUCTURED WEAK COOL FRONTAL
PASSAGE OCCURS THURSDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...RELATIVELY DRY HEAT. PWAT ~1.35 INCHES. HEAT INDEX
BELOW 100F. SOUTHWEST WIND GUST 15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON EXCEPT
WEAK SEA BREEZES COASTAL LOCATIONS BEGINNING AROUND NOON. USED THE
WARMER MAV TEMPS FOR THE DAYTIME FCST. FCST MAX TEMPS MAY BE A
DEGREE TOO LOW. OVERALL CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...APPROACHING WET BULB FRONT WITH THE 850 MB HOT PROD OF
18-20C AHEAD OF THE CF AND A QUICK START TO 90F THURSDAY MORNING.
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH HIGHER THAN
WEDNESDAY (BY ALMOST 10F). RAISED THE 00Z/28 NCEP GUIDANCE USING
THE 00Z/28 ECMWF BUT DID SO WITH LESS THAN IDEAL CONFIDENCE.

MLCAPE BUILDS IN CENTRAL PA TO 1400J BY 18Z THU AND 600J NJ.
APPEARS UNLIKELY TO HAVE ANY SHOWERS OR TSTMS GOING IN OUR AREA
BEFORE 16Z AND PROBABLY NOT TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR TIL NEAR 22Z.
THAT SHOULD ALLOW MORE WARMING THAN MODELED AND HI NEARING 100F BY
18Z. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW RECORDS WHICH ARE 97-99F EXCEPT
KMPO 90. SSW WIND GUST 15-20 MPH DURING THE AFTN.

WHAT WOULD PREVENT THE HEAT INDEX REACHING 100F? THURSDAY MORNING
SHOWERS AND TSTMS VCNTY KPHL SOUTH AND EAST WOULD LESSEN SUNSHINE
AND MAKE IT MUCH MORE DIFFICULT FOR THE AIR TEMPERATURE TO EXCEED
90F. THERE ARE 00Z/28 EC/GFS MODEL HINTS OF A WEAK INSTABILITY
BURST TRYING TO SHOVE NEWD INTO THE DELMARVA AND SNJ THURSDAY
MORNING AND PRODUCE MORNING SHOWERS.

A SCT-BKN BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND PASS
ACROSS THE AREA THU AFTN/NIGHT. PWAT INCREASES TO 1.9 INCHES ALONG
THE I- 95 CORRIDOR DURING THURSDAY EVENING SO HEAVY RAINERS AND
LOCAL POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING ANTICIPATED AND CANT RULE OUT
ISOLATED FF. WHILE TIMING IS EXCELLENT FOR STRONG TSTM
DEVELOPMENT, SVR UNLIKELY SINCE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS PRETTY WEAK
AND LAPSE RATES VIA TT INDEX LOOK PRETTY POOR. SREF MODELED PWAT
BACK EDGE OF 1.5 INCHES DOWN TO A KDOV- KBLM LINE BY 12Z FRIDAY.

FRIDAY...DEW POINTS LOWER BY 10 TO 12F ON LIGHT NLY FLOW AND AIR
TEMPS DOWN 2-3F. BLUE MOON AND POTENTIALLY NICE HOT SUMMER DAY FOR
THE END OF JULY. ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HEATS UP MAYBE A BIT MORE EACH DAY ON WSW
AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS 10-15 MPH. A NICE WEEKEND SINCE AFTERNOON
DEW POINTS STILL REMAIN PRETTY MODEST...LOW TO MID 60S. SMALL CHC
OF A TSTM NE PA SAT EVE IN WAA - THIS PER 1400J NEAR KHZL MIDDAY
REACHING KBLM BY 00Z/SUNDAY. AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT MONDAY...MORE HUMID AND CONTD HOT. 2000J MLCAPE I95 SEWD.
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE ON THE FCST DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING, OTHERWISE
VFR WITH A CLOUD BASE MOSTLY BETWEEN 3500-5000 FEET. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY ESPECIALLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF KPHL. SEA/BAY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
MID AFTERNOON AND AFFECT KACY, KMIV AND KILG WITH WINDS TURNING
MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER DUE TO THE MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE,
SOME LATE NIGHT LOW CLOUDS/FOG MAY DEVELOP, AND OUR CONFIDENCE IS
ON THE LOWER SIDE AT THIS TIME. LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER, THE
HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS MAY RESULT IN SOME LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING MVFR OR IFR LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG. LIGHT SW
WIND.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY RESULT IN MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
GRADIENT SW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT THU AFTN.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. LIGHT WIND, MAINLY NORTH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH SEA BREEZES BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A SEA
AND BAY BREEZE DEVELOPS. THE SEAS SHOULD RUN IN THE 1-3 FEET RANGE
THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A LONG PERIOD /AROUND 10 SECONDS/ SWELL FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A SOUTHERLY WIND AT 10-15 MPH WITH SOME
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT ALONG WITH WAVES OF AROUND 2 FEET
IN THE SURF ZONE ARE FORECAST TODAY. THE SETUP IS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY AND THEREFORE WE WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE RISK OF
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR BOTH THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE
COASTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KACY RAINFALL 6.33 RANKED 15TH WETTEST WITH THE POR DATING BACK
THROUGH 1874. WETTEST 13.09 IN 1959.

KABE MAY EXPERIENCE NEAR RECORD WARMTH ON WEDNESDAY JULY 29. THE
RECORD THERE IS IS 96 SET IN 1954. RIGHT NOW WE`RE FCSTG 94.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
RIP CURRENTS...GORSE
CLIMATE...DRAG



000
FXUS61 KPHI 281344
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
944 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COOL FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COOL FRONT MAY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST NEXT MONDAY. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THIS WEEK WILL BE MONITORED
FOR POSSIBLE NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LAST OF THE LOW CLOUDS WERE LIFTING AND DISSIPATING AROUND
930 AM.

THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT ARRIVED ON SUNDAY NIGHT
EXTENDED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE UPPER DELMARVA
PENINSULA THIS MORNING. THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
NORTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. MEANWHILE, WEAK AREAS HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OFF THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST.

AS THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH
OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ITS VICINITY. HOWEVER,
WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY,
DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND. DEVELOPING SEA AND BAY BREEZE
BOUNDARIES MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO RESULT IN ISOLATED
CONVECTION. MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE TO
ABOUT 700 TO 1100 J/KG IN THOSE AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 90 AT MOST
LOCATIONS IN OUR FORECAST AREA. READINGS SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER
THAN THAT IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN AND ALONG THE COAST. DEW POINT
READINGS SHOULD FAVOR THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. THE RESULTING
MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S.

TODAY MAY BE THE FIRST OF AT LEAST SEVEN CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF 90
PLUS TEMPERATURE READINGS IN MUCH OF OUR REGION. THE MAXIMUM
NUMBER OF CONSECUTIVE 90 PLUS DAYS AT PHILADELPHIA IS 18 SET FROM
JULY 29 THROUGH AUGUST 15, 1988. THE 8 TO 14-DAY OUTLOOK FOR THE
PERIOD FROM AUGUST 4-10 SUGGESTS A COOLING TREND AT THAT TIME, SO
WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE APPROACHING THE RECORD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE OVER OUR AREA TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY. THIS STILL MAINTAINS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, BUT
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW AT THE SURFACE. DUE TO A LACK OF ORGANIZED
SHORT WAVES TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT, AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM INITIATED PROBABLY BY ANY LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE /I.E.
SEA AND BAY BREEZES/ ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE EARLY IN THE
EVENING. IN ADDITION, ANY CUMULUS FIELD IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN AND
DISSIPATE WITH PERHAPS SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS OCCURRING AT TIMES.

IT WILL BE A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA AS THE
SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD RECOVER FROM ANY DAYTIME HEATING
INFLUENCE. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT TO CALM WINDS, A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER AND NOT A LOT OF CLOUDINESS COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS/FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE.

AS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, A MOS BLEND WAS GENERALLY USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
**POTENTIAL SEVEN DAY OR LONGER HEAT WAVE FOR PHL BEGINNING
TODAY AND PROBABLY CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY OR TUESDAY**

500 MB: HIGH PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE THE DOMINANT
INFLUENCE HERE THROUGH THURSDAY. OTHERWISE A TROUGH TRIES TO
EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN STATES NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES: THE MONTH OF JULY SO FAR HAS BEEN NEAR NORMAL
(TEMPS). THIS EXTENDED PERIOD WILL SEE CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES ABOVE
NORMAL EVERY DAY. TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN MORE THAN 5 DEGREES ABOVE NEXT MONDAY
AUGUST 3.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/28
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY, 00Z/28 MEX MOS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN THE 0521Z/28 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF
MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEW POINT-SKY-WIND FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

THE DAILIES...

WHILE NOT IN THE SYNOPSIS DUE TO ITS POTENTIAL TO CAUSE
CONFUSION... AND ITS LACK OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACT, IT LOOKS
LIKE THERE WILL BE A LEFTOVER WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE NEAR
I-95 THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A MORE STRUCTURED WEAK COOL FRONTAL
PASSAGE OCCURS THURSDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...RELATIVELY DRY HEAT. PWAT ~1.35 INCHES. HEAT INDEX
BELOW 100F. SOUTHWEST WIND GUST 15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON EXCEPT
WEAK SEA BREEZES COASTAL LOCATIONS BEGINNING AROUND NOON. USED THE
WARMER MAV TEMPS FOR THE DAYTIME FCST. FCST MAX TEMPS MAY BE A
DEGREE TOO LOW. OVERALL CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...APPROACHING WET BULB FRONT WITH THE 850 MB HOT PROD OF
18-20C AHEAD OF THE CF AND A QUICK START TO 90F THURSDAY MORNING.
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH HIGHER THAN
WEDNESDAY (BY ALMOST 10F). RAISED THE 00Z/28 NCEP GUIDANCE USING
THE 00Z/28 ECMWF BUT DID SO WITH LESS THAN IDEAL CONFIDENCE.

MLCAPE BUILDS IN CENTRAL PA TO 1400J BY 18Z THU AND 600J NJ.
APPEARS UNLIKELY TO HAVE ANY SHOWERS OR TSTMS GOING IN OUR AREA
BEFORE 16Z AND PROBABLY NOT TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR TIL NEAR 22Z.
THAT SHOULD ALLOW MORE WARMING THAN MODELED AND HI NEARING 100F BY
18Z. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW RECORDS WHICH ARE 97-99F EXCEPT
KMPO 90. SSW WIND GUST 15-20 MPH DURING THE AFTN.

WHAT WOULD PREVENT THE HEAT INDEX REACHING 100F? THURSDAY MORNING
SHOWERS AND TSTMS VCNTY KPHL SOUTH AND EAST WOULD LESSEN SUNSHINE
AND MAKE IT MUCH MORE DIFFICULT FOR THE AIR TEMPERATURE TO EXCEED
90F. THERE ARE 00Z/28 EC/GFS MODEL HINTS OF A WEAK INSTABILITY
BURST TRYING TO SHOVE NEWD INTO THE DELMARVA AND SNJ THURSDAY
MORNING AND PRODUCE MORNING SHOWERS.

A SCT-BKN BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND PASS
ACROSS THE AREA THU AFTN/NIGHT. PWAT INCREASES TO 1.9 INCHES ALONG
THE I- 95 CORRIDOR DURING THURSDAY EVENING SO HEAVY RAINERS AND
LOCAL POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING ANTICIPATED AND CANT RULE OUT
ISOLATED FF. WHILE TIMING IS EXCELLENT FOR STRONG TSTM
DEVELOPMENT, SVR UNLIKELY SINCE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS PRETTY WEAK
AND LAPSE RATES VIA TT INDEX LOOK PRETTY POOR. SREF MODELED PWAT
BACK EDGE OF 1.5 INCHES DOWN TO A KDOV- KBLM LINE BY 12Z FRIDAY.

FRIDAY...DEW POINTS LOWER BY 10 TO 12F ON LIGHT NLY FLOW AND AIR
TEMPS DOWN 2-3F. BLUE MOON AND POTENTIALLY NICE HOT SUMMER DAY FOR
THE END OF JULY. ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HEATS UP MAYBE A BIT MORE EACH DAY ON WSW
AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS 10-15 MPH. A NICE WEEKEND SINCE AFTERNOON
DEW POINTS STILL REMAIN PRETTY MODEST...LOW TO MID 60S. SMALL CHC
OF A TSTM NE PA SAT EVE IN WAA - THIS PER 1400J NEAR KHZL MIDDAY
REACHING KBLM BY 00Z/SUNDAY. AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT MONDAY...MORE HUMID AND CONTD HOT. 2000J MLCAPE I95 SEWD.
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE ON THE FCST DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING, OTHERWISE
VFR WITH A CLOUD BASE MOSTLY BETWEEN 3500-5000 FEET. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY ESPECIALLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF KPHL. SEA/BAY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
MID AFTERNOON AND AFFECT KACY, KMIV AND KILG WITH WINDS TURNING
MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER DUE TO THE MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE,
SOME LATE NIGHT LOW CLOUDS/FOG MAY DEVELOP, AND OUR CONFIDENCE IS
ON THE LOWER SIDE AT THIS TIME. LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER, THE
HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS MAY RESULT IN SOME LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING MVFR OR IFR LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG. LIGHT SW
WIND.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY RESULT IN MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
GRADIENT SW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT THU AFTN.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. LIGHT WIND, MAINLY NORTH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH SEA BREEZES BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A SEA
AND BAY BREEZE DEVELOPS. THE SEAS SHOULD RUN IN THE 1-3 FEET RANGE
THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A LONG PERIOD /AROUND 10 SECONDS/ SWELL FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A SOUTHERLY WIND AT 10-15 MPH WITH SOME
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT ALONG WITH WAVES OF AROUND 2 FEET
IN THE SURF ZONE ARE FORECAST TODAY. THE SETUP IS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY AND THEREFORE WE WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE RISK OF
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR BOTH THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE
COASTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KACY RAINFALL 6.33 RANKED 15TH WETTEST WITH THE POR DATING BACK
THROUGH 1874. WETTEST 13.09 IN 1959.

KABE MAY EXPERIENCE NEAR RECORD WARMTH ON WEDNESDAY JULY 29. THE
RECORD THERE IS IS 96 SET IN 1954. RIGHT NOW WE`RE FCSTG 94.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
RIP CURRENTS...GORSE
CLIMATE...DRAG



000
FXUS61 KPHI 281344
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
944 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COOL FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COOL FRONT MAY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST NEXT MONDAY. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THIS WEEK WILL BE MONITORED
FOR POSSIBLE NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LAST OF THE LOW CLOUDS WERE LIFTING AND DISSIPATING AROUND
930 AM.

THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT ARRIVED ON SUNDAY NIGHT
EXTENDED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE UPPER DELMARVA
PENINSULA THIS MORNING. THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
NORTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. MEANWHILE, WEAK AREAS HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OFF THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST.

AS THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH
OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ITS VICINITY. HOWEVER,
WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY,
DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND. DEVELOPING SEA AND BAY BREEZE
BOUNDARIES MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO RESULT IN ISOLATED
CONVECTION. MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE TO
ABOUT 700 TO 1100 J/KG IN THOSE AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 90 AT MOST
LOCATIONS IN OUR FORECAST AREA. READINGS SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER
THAN THAT IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN AND ALONG THE COAST. DEW POINT
READINGS SHOULD FAVOR THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. THE RESULTING
MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S.

TODAY MAY BE THE FIRST OF AT LEAST SEVEN CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF 90
PLUS TEMPERATURE READINGS IN MUCH OF OUR REGION. THE MAXIMUM
NUMBER OF CONSECUTIVE 90 PLUS DAYS AT PHILADELPHIA IS 18 SET FROM
JULY 29 THROUGH AUGUST 15, 1988. THE 8 TO 14-DAY OUTLOOK FOR THE
PERIOD FROM AUGUST 4-10 SUGGESTS A COOLING TREND AT THAT TIME, SO
WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE APPROACHING THE RECORD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE OVER OUR AREA TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY. THIS STILL MAINTAINS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, BUT
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW AT THE SURFACE. DUE TO A LACK OF ORGANIZED
SHORT WAVES TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT, AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM INITIATED PROBABLY BY ANY LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE /I.E.
SEA AND BAY BREEZES/ ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE EARLY IN THE
EVENING. IN ADDITION, ANY CUMULUS FIELD IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN AND
DISSIPATE WITH PERHAPS SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS OCCURRING AT TIMES.

IT WILL BE A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA AS THE
SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD RECOVER FROM ANY DAYTIME HEATING
INFLUENCE. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT TO CALM WINDS, A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER AND NOT A LOT OF CLOUDINESS COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS/FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE.

AS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, A MOS BLEND WAS GENERALLY USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
**POTENTIAL SEVEN DAY OR LONGER HEAT WAVE FOR PHL BEGINNING
TODAY AND PROBABLY CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY OR TUESDAY**

500 MB: HIGH PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE THE DOMINANT
INFLUENCE HERE THROUGH THURSDAY. OTHERWISE A TROUGH TRIES TO
EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN STATES NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES: THE MONTH OF JULY SO FAR HAS BEEN NEAR NORMAL
(TEMPS). THIS EXTENDED PERIOD WILL SEE CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES ABOVE
NORMAL EVERY DAY. TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN MORE THAN 5 DEGREES ABOVE NEXT MONDAY
AUGUST 3.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/28
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY, 00Z/28 MEX MOS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN THE 0521Z/28 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF
MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEW POINT-SKY-WIND FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

THE DAILIES...

WHILE NOT IN THE SYNOPSIS DUE TO ITS POTENTIAL TO CAUSE
CONFUSION... AND ITS LACK OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACT, IT LOOKS
LIKE THERE WILL BE A LEFTOVER WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE NEAR
I-95 THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A MORE STRUCTURED WEAK COOL FRONTAL
PASSAGE OCCURS THURSDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...RELATIVELY DRY HEAT. PWAT ~1.35 INCHES. HEAT INDEX
BELOW 100F. SOUTHWEST WIND GUST 15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON EXCEPT
WEAK SEA BREEZES COASTAL LOCATIONS BEGINNING AROUND NOON. USED THE
WARMER MAV TEMPS FOR THE DAYTIME FCST. FCST MAX TEMPS MAY BE A
DEGREE TOO LOW. OVERALL CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...APPROACHING WET BULB FRONT WITH THE 850 MB HOT PROD OF
18-20C AHEAD OF THE CF AND A QUICK START TO 90F THURSDAY MORNING.
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH HIGHER THAN
WEDNESDAY (BY ALMOST 10F). RAISED THE 00Z/28 NCEP GUIDANCE USING
THE 00Z/28 ECMWF BUT DID SO WITH LESS THAN IDEAL CONFIDENCE.

MLCAPE BUILDS IN CENTRAL PA TO 1400J BY 18Z THU AND 600J NJ.
APPEARS UNLIKELY TO HAVE ANY SHOWERS OR TSTMS GOING IN OUR AREA
BEFORE 16Z AND PROBABLY NOT TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR TIL NEAR 22Z.
THAT SHOULD ALLOW MORE WARMING THAN MODELED AND HI NEARING 100F BY
18Z. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW RECORDS WHICH ARE 97-99F EXCEPT
KMPO 90. SSW WIND GUST 15-20 MPH DURING THE AFTN.

WHAT WOULD PREVENT THE HEAT INDEX REACHING 100F? THURSDAY MORNING
SHOWERS AND TSTMS VCNTY KPHL SOUTH AND EAST WOULD LESSEN SUNSHINE
AND MAKE IT MUCH MORE DIFFICULT FOR THE AIR TEMPERATURE TO EXCEED
90F. THERE ARE 00Z/28 EC/GFS MODEL HINTS OF A WEAK INSTABILITY
BURST TRYING TO SHOVE NEWD INTO THE DELMARVA AND SNJ THURSDAY
MORNING AND PRODUCE MORNING SHOWERS.

A SCT-BKN BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND PASS
ACROSS THE AREA THU AFTN/NIGHT. PWAT INCREASES TO 1.9 INCHES ALONG
THE I- 95 CORRIDOR DURING THURSDAY EVENING SO HEAVY RAINERS AND
LOCAL POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING ANTICIPATED AND CANT RULE OUT
ISOLATED FF. WHILE TIMING IS EXCELLENT FOR STRONG TSTM
DEVELOPMENT, SVR UNLIKELY SINCE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS PRETTY WEAK
AND LAPSE RATES VIA TT INDEX LOOK PRETTY POOR. SREF MODELED PWAT
BACK EDGE OF 1.5 INCHES DOWN TO A KDOV- KBLM LINE BY 12Z FRIDAY.

FRIDAY...DEW POINTS LOWER BY 10 TO 12F ON LIGHT NLY FLOW AND AIR
TEMPS DOWN 2-3F. BLUE MOON AND POTENTIALLY NICE HOT SUMMER DAY FOR
THE END OF JULY. ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HEATS UP MAYBE A BIT MORE EACH DAY ON WSW
AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS 10-15 MPH. A NICE WEEKEND SINCE AFTERNOON
DEW POINTS STILL REMAIN PRETTY MODEST...LOW TO MID 60S. SMALL CHC
OF A TSTM NE PA SAT EVE IN WAA - THIS PER 1400J NEAR KHZL MIDDAY
REACHING KBLM BY 00Z/SUNDAY. AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT MONDAY...MORE HUMID AND CONTD HOT. 2000J MLCAPE I95 SEWD.
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE ON THE FCST DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING, OTHERWISE
VFR WITH A CLOUD BASE MOSTLY BETWEEN 3500-5000 FEET. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY ESPECIALLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF KPHL. SEA/BAY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
MID AFTERNOON AND AFFECT KACY, KMIV AND KILG WITH WINDS TURNING
MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER DUE TO THE MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE,
SOME LATE NIGHT LOW CLOUDS/FOG MAY DEVELOP, AND OUR CONFIDENCE IS
ON THE LOWER SIDE AT THIS TIME. LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER, THE
HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS MAY RESULT IN SOME LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING MVFR OR IFR LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG. LIGHT SW
WIND.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY RESULT IN MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
GRADIENT SW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT THU AFTN.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. LIGHT WIND, MAINLY NORTH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH SEA BREEZES BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A SEA
AND BAY BREEZE DEVELOPS. THE SEAS SHOULD RUN IN THE 1-3 FEET RANGE
THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A LONG PERIOD /AROUND 10 SECONDS/ SWELL FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A SOUTHERLY WIND AT 10-15 MPH WITH SOME
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT ALONG WITH WAVES OF AROUND 2 FEET
IN THE SURF ZONE ARE FORECAST TODAY. THE SETUP IS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY AND THEREFORE WE WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE RISK OF
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR BOTH THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE
COASTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KACY RAINFALL 6.33 RANKED 15TH WETTEST WITH THE POR DATING BACK
THROUGH 1874. WETTEST 13.09 IN 1959.

KABE MAY EXPERIENCE NEAR RECORD WARMTH ON WEDNESDAY JULY 29. THE
RECORD THERE IS IS 96 SET IN 1954. RIGHT NOW WE`RE FCSTG 94.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
RIP CURRENTS...GORSE
CLIMATE...DRAG



000
FXUS61 KPHI 281344
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
944 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COOL FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COOL FRONT MAY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST NEXT MONDAY. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THIS WEEK WILL BE MONITORED
FOR POSSIBLE NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LAST OF THE LOW CLOUDS WERE LIFTING AND DISSIPATING AROUND
930 AM.

THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT ARRIVED ON SUNDAY NIGHT
EXTENDED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE UPPER DELMARVA
PENINSULA THIS MORNING. THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
NORTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. MEANWHILE, WEAK AREAS HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OFF THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST.

AS THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH
OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ITS VICINITY. HOWEVER,
WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY,
DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND. DEVELOPING SEA AND BAY BREEZE
BOUNDARIES MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO RESULT IN ISOLATED
CONVECTION. MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE TO
ABOUT 700 TO 1100 J/KG IN THOSE AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 90 AT MOST
LOCATIONS IN OUR FORECAST AREA. READINGS SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER
THAN THAT IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN AND ALONG THE COAST. DEW POINT
READINGS SHOULD FAVOR THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. THE RESULTING
MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S.

TODAY MAY BE THE FIRST OF AT LEAST SEVEN CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF 90
PLUS TEMPERATURE READINGS IN MUCH OF OUR REGION. THE MAXIMUM
NUMBER OF CONSECUTIVE 90 PLUS DAYS AT PHILADELPHIA IS 18 SET FROM
JULY 29 THROUGH AUGUST 15, 1988. THE 8 TO 14-DAY OUTLOOK FOR THE
PERIOD FROM AUGUST 4-10 SUGGESTS A COOLING TREND AT THAT TIME, SO
WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE APPROACHING THE RECORD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE OVER OUR AREA TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY. THIS STILL MAINTAINS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, BUT
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW AT THE SURFACE. DUE TO A LACK OF ORGANIZED
SHORT WAVES TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT, AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM INITIATED PROBABLY BY ANY LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE /I.E.
SEA AND BAY BREEZES/ ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE EARLY IN THE
EVENING. IN ADDITION, ANY CUMULUS FIELD IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN AND
DISSIPATE WITH PERHAPS SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS OCCURRING AT TIMES.

IT WILL BE A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA AS THE
SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD RECOVER FROM ANY DAYTIME HEATING
INFLUENCE. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT TO CALM WINDS, A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER AND NOT A LOT OF CLOUDINESS COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS/FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE.

AS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, A MOS BLEND WAS GENERALLY USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
**POTENTIAL SEVEN DAY OR LONGER HEAT WAVE FOR PHL BEGINNING
TODAY AND PROBABLY CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY OR TUESDAY**

500 MB: HIGH PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE THE DOMINANT
INFLUENCE HERE THROUGH THURSDAY. OTHERWISE A TROUGH TRIES TO
EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN STATES NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES: THE MONTH OF JULY SO FAR HAS BEEN NEAR NORMAL
(TEMPS). THIS EXTENDED PERIOD WILL SEE CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES ABOVE
NORMAL EVERY DAY. TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN MORE THAN 5 DEGREES ABOVE NEXT MONDAY
AUGUST 3.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/28
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY, 00Z/28 MEX MOS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN THE 0521Z/28 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF
MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEW POINT-SKY-WIND FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

THE DAILIES...

WHILE NOT IN THE SYNOPSIS DUE TO ITS POTENTIAL TO CAUSE
CONFUSION... AND ITS LACK OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACT, IT LOOKS
LIKE THERE WILL BE A LEFTOVER WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE NEAR
I-95 THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A MORE STRUCTURED WEAK COOL FRONTAL
PASSAGE OCCURS THURSDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...RELATIVELY DRY HEAT. PWAT ~1.35 INCHES. HEAT INDEX
BELOW 100F. SOUTHWEST WIND GUST 15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON EXCEPT
WEAK SEA BREEZES COASTAL LOCATIONS BEGINNING AROUND NOON. USED THE
WARMER MAV TEMPS FOR THE DAYTIME FCST. FCST MAX TEMPS MAY BE A
DEGREE TOO LOW. OVERALL CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...APPROACHING WET BULB FRONT WITH THE 850 MB HOT PROD OF
18-20C AHEAD OF THE CF AND A QUICK START TO 90F THURSDAY MORNING.
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH HIGHER THAN
WEDNESDAY (BY ALMOST 10F). RAISED THE 00Z/28 NCEP GUIDANCE USING
THE 00Z/28 ECMWF BUT DID SO WITH LESS THAN IDEAL CONFIDENCE.

MLCAPE BUILDS IN CENTRAL PA TO 1400J BY 18Z THU AND 600J NJ.
APPEARS UNLIKELY TO HAVE ANY SHOWERS OR TSTMS GOING IN OUR AREA
BEFORE 16Z AND PROBABLY NOT TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR TIL NEAR 22Z.
THAT SHOULD ALLOW MORE WARMING THAN MODELED AND HI NEARING 100F BY
18Z. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW RECORDS WHICH ARE 97-99F EXCEPT
KMPO 90. SSW WIND GUST 15-20 MPH DURING THE AFTN.

WHAT WOULD PREVENT THE HEAT INDEX REACHING 100F? THURSDAY MORNING
SHOWERS AND TSTMS VCNTY KPHL SOUTH AND EAST WOULD LESSEN SUNSHINE
AND MAKE IT MUCH MORE DIFFICULT FOR THE AIR TEMPERATURE TO EXCEED
90F. THERE ARE 00Z/28 EC/GFS MODEL HINTS OF A WEAK INSTABILITY
BURST TRYING TO SHOVE NEWD INTO THE DELMARVA AND SNJ THURSDAY
MORNING AND PRODUCE MORNING SHOWERS.

A SCT-BKN BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND PASS
ACROSS THE AREA THU AFTN/NIGHT. PWAT INCREASES TO 1.9 INCHES ALONG
THE I- 95 CORRIDOR DURING THURSDAY EVENING SO HEAVY RAINERS AND
LOCAL POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING ANTICIPATED AND CANT RULE OUT
ISOLATED FF. WHILE TIMING IS EXCELLENT FOR STRONG TSTM
DEVELOPMENT, SVR UNLIKELY SINCE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS PRETTY WEAK
AND LAPSE RATES VIA TT INDEX LOOK PRETTY POOR. SREF MODELED PWAT
BACK EDGE OF 1.5 INCHES DOWN TO A KDOV- KBLM LINE BY 12Z FRIDAY.

FRIDAY...DEW POINTS LOWER BY 10 TO 12F ON LIGHT NLY FLOW AND AIR
TEMPS DOWN 2-3F. BLUE MOON AND POTENTIALLY NICE HOT SUMMER DAY FOR
THE END OF JULY. ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HEATS UP MAYBE A BIT MORE EACH DAY ON WSW
AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS 10-15 MPH. A NICE WEEKEND SINCE AFTERNOON
DEW POINTS STILL REMAIN PRETTY MODEST...LOW TO MID 60S. SMALL CHC
OF A TSTM NE PA SAT EVE IN WAA - THIS PER 1400J NEAR KHZL MIDDAY
REACHING KBLM BY 00Z/SUNDAY. AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT MONDAY...MORE HUMID AND CONTD HOT. 2000J MLCAPE I95 SEWD.
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE ON THE FCST DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING, OTHERWISE
VFR WITH A CLOUD BASE MOSTLY BETWEEN 3500-5000 FEET. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY ESPECIALLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF KPHL. SEA/BAY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
MID AFTERNOON AND AFFECT KACY, KMIV AND KILG WITH WINDS TURNING
MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER DUE TO THE MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE,
SOME LATE NIGHT LOW CLOUDS/FOG MAY DEVELOP, AND OUR CONFIDENCE IS
ON THE LOWER SIDE AT THIS TIME. LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER, THE
HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS MAY RESULT IN SOME LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING MVFR OR IFR LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG. LIGHT SW
WIND.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY RESULT IN MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
GRADIENT SW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT THU AFTN.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. LIGHT WIND, MAINLY NORTH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH SEA BREEZES BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A SEA
AND BAY BREEZE DEVELOPS. THE SEAS SHOULD RUN IN THE 1-3 FEET RANGE
THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A LONG PERIOD /AROUND 10 SECONDS/ SWELL FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A SOUTHERLY WIND AT 10-15 MPH WITH SOME
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT ALONG WITH WAVES OF AROUND 2 FEET
IN THE SURF ZONE ARE FORECAST TODAY. THE SETUP IS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY AND THEREFORE WE WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE RISK OF
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR BOTH THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE
COASTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KACY RAINFALL 6.33 RANKED 15TH WETTEST WITH THE POR DATING BACK
THROUGH 1874. WETTEST 13.09 IN 1959.

KABE MAY EXPERIENCE NEAR RECORD WARMTH ON WEDNESDAY JULY 29. THE
RECORD THERE IS IS 96 SET IN 1954. RIGHT NOW WE`RE FCSTG 94.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
RIP CURRENTS...GORSE
CLIMATE...DRAG



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