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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 050226
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1026 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER AIR LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND
TRACKING INTO NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN EVENTUALLY WEAKENS INTO AN UPPER TROUGH AND PUSHES
OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO GENERATE ALONG A WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NJ ALONG CHES BAY INTO ERN NC. THE
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN PULSING UP IN ERN VA WITH A QUICK BURST OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY ACCUMULATING QPF
AMOUNTS OF 0.25 INCHES OR LESS. A DRY SLOT MOVING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SW WILL KEEP SHOWER CHANCES LOW GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95 THE REST OF THE EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRAY SHOWER OR TWO GLANCING THE ERN PIEDMONT. NEXT BATCH OF
SHOWERS MOVES INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SE FROM THE MIDWEST
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. EXPECT PRIMARILY MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WX WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE FA THU INTO FRI NGT...AS UPR
AIR LO PRES TRACKS SE INTO NC THU AFTN/EVENG...THEN LIFTS NWDACRS
THE REGION THU EVENG THRU FRI EVENG. POPS INCREASE QUICKLY TO CAT
(80%) OR LIKELY (70-60%) OVR WSW COUNTIES BY EARLY THU AFTN...DUE
TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED LO LVL MOISTURE AND IMPRESSIVE
LIFT IN ADVANCE OF THE UPR LO. POPS WILL THEN INCREASE TO AT LEAST
40-60% OVR THE ERN/NE HALF OF THE AREA FOR THU EVENG INTO FRI
MORNG...AS THE UPR LO LIFTS NWD FM ERN NC INTO ERN VA. POPS REMAIN
AT 30-60% FRI AFTN INTO FRI EVENG...THEN DECREASE TO 20-30% LATER
FRI NGT THRU SAT...AS THE UPR LO WEAKENS INTO AN UPR TROF AND
EVENTUALLY PUSHES OFF THE CST SAT AFTN. RAINFALL AMTS WILL BE
HIGHEST OVR THE VA PIEDMONT ALNG AND W OF INTERSTATE 95...WITH 1
TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE THRU THE EVENT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FM
THE UPR 50S TO UPR 60S ON THU...FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S
FRI...AND FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SAT. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN
THE UPR 40S TO LWR 50S THU NGT AND FRI NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOOKS ON
TRACK TO CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. GFS/CMC/ECMWF TIMING IS FAIRLY
SIMILAR...WITH THE FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO NC BY MIDDAY SUN.
MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED WITH THIS BOUNDARY...WITH SO WILL
MAINTAIN THE 20%/SLIGHT CHC POP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHS
SUNDAY RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S (AROUND 80 F SOUTH) AFTER
MORNING LOWS IN THE 50S. A MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO GENERALLY DRY AND MILD TO WARM
CONDITIONS. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 70S MONDAY LOOK TO
MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW-MID 80S TUE/WED. WITH A WEAK
SFC BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA AS THIS WARMING TREND OCCURS
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ON TUE THOUGH WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED AT
20%. NEXT COLD FRONT SLATED FOR LATE WED/THU...SO HAVE 20-30% CHC
POPS BY WED AFTN (HIGHEST NW).

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
THROUGH THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY AND INTO THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE SLIDING TO THE EAST ON
SUNDAY.

WIDELY SCATTERED BUT DISSIPATING SHOWERS WERE OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA
EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. IFR CONDS WILL BE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. THE
QUESTION THEN COMES AS TO HOW MUCH IMPROVEMENT OCCURS ON THURSDAY.
FOLLOWED CLOSE TO NAM MOS WHICH DID FAIRLY WELL DURING THE LAST 24
HOURS. HAVE CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO HIGH END IFR AT ALL SITES AND TO
LOW END MVFR IN THE AFTN AT RIC PHF AND ECG. ALSO INTRODUCED SHOWERS
THURSDAY AFTN TO ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT SBY.

OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED AND POTENTIALLY IFR CONDS CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT ON SATURDAY. DRY AND VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
10 PM UPDATE...WINDS ARE STRONGER OVER THE MARINE AREAS THAN
EARLIER FORECAST AND SEAS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER AS WELL. ADDED
ANOTHER ZONE TO THE SCA FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES FOR
SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. ENDED THIS PART OF THE SCA AT 14Z BUT IT MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED LONGER. WINDS IN THE LOWER BAY ARE NEAR 15
KNOTS AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN CASE A SCA IS NEEDED
THERE AS WELL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RELATIVELY WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER
ERN CANADA...AND SFC LOW ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. THE SFC LOW
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF THE NC COAST AND MOVE NE ALONG THE GULF
STREAM THU...WITH A SECONDARY LOW HANGING BACK OVER VA/NC THROUGH
FRI (THIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL PARK ITSELF OVER
THE REGION). RAISING SCA HEADLINES ACRS THE NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS PER LATEST OBS/TRENDS. GENLY A MARGINAL EVENT BUT THE
PROLONGED NE FLOW OF 15-20KT OVER THE NRN COASTAL WATERS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN 5 FT SEAS THROUGH AT LEAST THU NIGHT (POSSIBLY
CONTINUING FRI). ELSEWHERE ACRS THE MARINE AREA...WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY FROM THE NE AND ARE SLOWLY INCREASING BUT SPEEDS GENLY
LOOK TO STAY AT OR BELOW 15 KT THROUGH THE NEXT 2 DAYS. SOME OF
THE HIGH RES MODEL DATA SHOWS THERE COULD BE SOME MARGINAL GUSTS
TO 20 KT ON THU INTO THE BAY BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY SCA
ISSUANCES THERE FOR NOW. WAVES IN THE BAY SHOULD AVG 1-2 FT
TONIGHT AND 2-3 FT THU/THU NIGHT. SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
SOUTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND WILL AVG 3-4 FT. PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS AGAIN FRI/FRI NIGHT AND WIND DIRECTIONS MAY BE SOMEWHAT
CHAOTIC DEPENDING ON EXACT LOCATION OF THE SFC LOW (SPEEDS MAINLY
5-10 KT). THIS SECOND LOW THEN MOVES OFFSHORE SAT/SAT NIGHT WITH A
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE WATERS ON SUNDAY. NOT MUCH COLD AIR BEHIND
THIS FRONT SO DOUBT SCA CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH SEAS TO AVG
2-4 FT AND 1-2 FT WAVES IN THE BAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RISING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ALONG WITH CONTINUED NE FLOW IS LEADING
TO TIDAL DEPARTURES CURRENTLY AVERAGING AROUND 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL.
APPEARS MOST AREAS WILL FALL JUST SHY OF MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS
WITH THE UPCOMING EVENING HIGH TIDE BUT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT
AT LEAST A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY OVER
MUCH OF THE LOWER BAY/SRN COASTAL WATERS. ANOMALIES ARE LIKELY TO
INCREASE A BIT THU...AND WILL PROBABLY NEED A CSTL FLOOD ADSY BY
THU EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...BMD/TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LKB/LSA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 050146
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
946 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
OVERNIGHT. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS OVERNIGHT...BUT
STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE
TAKES ON MORE OF A NW/SE ORIENTATION WITH TIME. THUNDER THREAT IS
OVER FOR TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HIGHER QPF WILL
FALL SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH. REDUCED MIN TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO
OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO NEAR TERM GUIDANCE LIKE THE LAMP.

UPPER LOW CENTER ROTATES ACROSS KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE TOWARDS
NORTH CAROLINA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE.  GOOD MOISTURE FEED SETS UP INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THINK HEAVIEST RAIN TOTALS WILL
FALL SOUTH OF CWA...BUT WE MAY NEED TO MONITOR RAIN TOTALS IN LOW
FFG PATCH IN MARION/MONONGALIA COUNTIES. LITTLE CHANGE TO THURSDAY
FORECAST FOR NOW.  CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE H5 CLOSED LOW MENTIONED ABOVE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRI NIGHT...WITH VORTICITY LOBES
CIRCUMNAVIGATING THE SYSTEM. THESE WAVES WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS IN
THE SERN ZONES AND ESPECIALLY IN THE RIDGES ON THU NIGHT...WHERE
MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.

BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON SATURDAY WILL HELP DIVERT THE UPPER
LOW AND BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION FOR SAT AFTERNOON. A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL SHUNT THE UPPER RIDGE SEWD...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CONSEQUENTLY INCREASING SAT NIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PRECIPITATION SAT NIGHT WILL EXIT QUICKLY BY SUN MORNING IN THE
WAKE OF THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH LITTLE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON SUN...THE REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE
NRN SIDE OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THUS...MAXIMA WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY-BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW-MID 60S.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAD BEEN LOCATED IN THE SWRN
CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL EJECT SLOWLY INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE
OVER THE ERN CONUS AND ATTENDANT INCREASE IN WARM AIR BEGINNING ON
MON. NEAR-CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS WERE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST DURING
THIS TIME AS THE FCST AREA WILL RESIDE IN THE MOIST WARM SECTOR.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS TIMING DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MEDIUM-RANGE
MODELS...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE
WED/THU AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE
REGION. GIVEN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES...THIS COMBINATION OF
FEATURES WARRANTS GENERAL HEIGHTENED POPS AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER DURING ITS TENURE IN THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH FOCUS ALONG AN APPROACHING FRONT AND SHORTWAVE. LOW
PRESSURE DIVING SOUTHWARD WILL SLOWLY PIVOT THIS AREA OF SHOWERS
OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. MAINLY MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT BUT SOME IFR MAY BE POSSIBLE
TOWARD SUNRISE. AT THIS TIME...HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON THE
PREVAILING IFR FORECAST...BUT WILL WATCH UPSTREAM TRENDS TONIGHT.

CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE EARLY TOMORROW BUT DIURNAL SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO FLOURISH AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH FRI WITH PERSISTENT LOW
PRESSURE...AND AGAIN WITH A COLD FRONT ON SAT NIGHT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



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000
FXUS61 KPHI 050126
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
926 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE TONIGHT. DUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE SLOW TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE LATER HALF OF THIS WEEK. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO LINGER JUST OFFSHORE INTO THE
WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WELCOMED HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CONTINUE TO KEEP A DRY FCST INTO TONIGHT, EXCEPT PSBLY FOR SOME
DZ.

OTHERWISE, TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER LOOK GOOD.

LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN AT MID AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND
IT IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE COASTAL LOW LATE TONIGHT.

THE SURFACE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST FLOW
IN OUR REGION. AS A RESULT, WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY DRIZZLE TONIGHT ALONG WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL FAVOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A PRIMARY SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE
WATERS OFF NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, A LINGERING AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. AS A
RESULT, WE WILL EXPERIENCE ANOTHER DAY OF NORTHEASTERLY WIND ALONG
WITH LOW CLOUDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: DUAL LOW PRESSURES WILL CONTINUE
THE GRAY AND DREARY PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION IN THIS TIMEFRAME. THE
FIRST AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BE DEPARTING TO THE NORTHEAST
OFF CAPE COD WITH THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CAROLINAS.
THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PROVIDE LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH
ONSHORE FLOW LEADING TO ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES CURRENTLY ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ON FRIDAY WHEN THE TRAILING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LOCATED JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST. RIGHT NOW
MODELING IS FOCUSING THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY. QPF COULD REACH HALF AN
INCH BY FRIDAY NIGHT IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. WITH THE
EXCESSIVE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE WENT A LITTLE COOLER IN THE DAYS
WITH HIGHS THAN WHAT MET/MAV GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST AND WARMER AT
NIGHT,HIGHS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE 50`S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

THERE IS SOME OPTIMISM THAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD BE
DRIER THAN INDICATED IN THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE PACKAGES. HOWEVER, AN
EQUAL POSSIBILITY IS PRESENT THAT THE SECOND LOW WILL LINGER
OFFSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES WARMER AT NIGHT AND COOLER IN THE DAY THAN WHAT VARIOUS
GUIDANCE PACKAGES INDICATE. TEMPERATURES WILL START A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY BE THE ULTIMATE KICKER FOR THE STUBBORN LOW PRESSURE JUST
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR YET ADDITIONAL SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH SOME
CLEARING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
ARRIVES.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ON MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW DRY DAYS AND A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY. THE
CHALLENGE IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE A WARM FRONT DIVIDING A COOLER
MORE MARINE AIRMASS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SENDING MORE SUMMERLIKE
TEMPERATURES INTO OUR REGION. RIGHT NOW THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF
THIS WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK IS STILL UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER, IT DOES
LOOK LIKE THE FRONT MAKES IT NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WOULD
POTENTIALLY RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80`S BY WEDNESDAY.
FOR NOW, HAVE TEMPERED THIS CHANGE IN MODELING KEEPING SOME
CONTINUITY GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
MOVE TOWARD OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
OVERLAP OF INSTABILITY AND OVER 30 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR,
BUT IT`S TO EARLY TO ACCESS THE DEGREE OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS GENLY REMAIN IN THE 1000 TO 1500 FT RANGE. THERE ARE
SOME SUB 100 FT VALUES AS WELL. THE EXPECTED TREND IS DOWNWARD
INTO IFR AND EVEN LIFR OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, DOWNWARD TREND MAY BE
SLOWER FCST. IF THERE IS ANY DRIZZLE THAT OCCURS, THERE COULD BE
BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS AS WELL. HOWEVER, SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
AND PATCHY DRIZZLE FROM TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE
THE VISIBILITY TO 5 MILES OR LESS IN SPOTS.

THE WIND SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE NORTHEAST AT 6 TO 12 KNOTS.
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM AROUND KPHL EAST AND SOUTHWARD
ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: FREQUENT MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VSBYS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. EASTERLY WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

MONDAY: VFR, WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN A
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON OUR COASTAL WATERS FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FEET AND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE OUR WATERS OFF DELAWARE.

OUTLOOK...

AN SCA IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL REMAIN
AT OR JUST OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH SATURDAY. SEAS WILL DECREASE FOR
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A PERIOD OF EASTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND
20 KNOTS IS LIKELY FRIDAY ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF NORTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE TIDAL SURGE RANGED FROM +0.7 TO +1.0 FOOT ALONG THE NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE COAST DURING THIS MORNING`S HIGH TIDE. THE PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE TIDAL SURGE TO BE AROUND +1.0
TO +1.3 FEET FOR THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE. THOSE VALUES ALONG WITH
THE INCREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AS WE APPROACH FRIDAY`S NEW MOON
SHOULD RESULT IN MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE COASTS THIS EVENING. THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT.

MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY TO EXTEND INTO THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT CYCLES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ012>014-020>027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GAINES/IOVINO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 050126
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
926 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE TONIGHT. DUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE SLOW TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE LATER HALF OF THIS WEEK. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO LINGER JUST OFFSHORE INTO THE
WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WELCOMED HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CONTINUE TO KEEP A DRY FCST INTO TONIGHT, EXCEPT PSBLY FOR SOME
DZ.

OTHERWISE, TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER LOOK GOOD.

LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN AT MID AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND
IT IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE COASTAL LOW LATE TONIGHT.

THE SURFACE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST FLOW
IN OUR REGION. AS A RESULT, WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY DRIZZLE TONIGHT ALONG WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL FAVOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A PRIMARY SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE
WATERS OFF NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, A LINGERING AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. AS A
RESULT, WE WILL EXPERIENCE ANOTHER DAY OF NORTHEASTERLY WIND ALONG
WITH LOW CLOUDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: DUAL LOW PRESSURES WILL CONTINUE
THE GRAY AND DREARY PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION IN THIS TIMEFRAME. THE
FIRST AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BE DEPARTING TO THE NORTHEAST
OFF CAPE COD WITH THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CAROLINAS.
THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PROVIDE LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH
ONSHORE FLOW LEADING TO ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES CURRENTLY ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ON FRIDAY WHEN THE TRAILING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LOCATED JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST. RIGHT NOW
MODELING IS FOCUSING THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY. QPF COULD REACH HALF AN
INCH BY FRIDAY NIGHT IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. WITH THE
EXCESSIVE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE WENT A LITTLE COOLER IN THE DAYS
WITH HIGHS THAN WHAT MET/MAV GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST AND WARMER AT
NIGHT,HIGHS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE 50`S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

THERE IS SOME OPTIMISM THAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD BE
DRIER THAN INDICATED IN THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE PACKAGES. HOWEVER, AN
EQUAL POSSIBILITY IS PRESENT THAT THE SECOND LOW WILL LINGER
OFFSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES WARMER AT NIGHT AND COOLER IN THE DAY THAN WHAT VARIOUS
GUIDANCE PACKAGES INDICATE. TEMPERATURES WILL START A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY BE THE ULTIMATE KICKER FOR THE STUBBORN LOW PRESSURE JUST
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR YET ADDITIONAL SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH SOME
CLEARING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
ARRIVES.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ON MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW DRY DAYS AND A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY. THE
CHALLENGE IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE A WARM FRONT DIVIDING A COOLER
MORE MARINE AIRMASS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SENDING MORE SUMMERLIKE
TEMPERATURES INTO OUR REGION. RIGHT NOW THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF
THIS WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK IS STILL UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER, IT DOES
LOOK LIKE THE FRONT MAKES IT NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WOULD
POTENTIALLY RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80`S BY WEDNESDAY.
FOR NOW, HAVE TEMPERED THIS CHANGE IN MODELING KEEPING SOME
CONTINUITY GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
MOVE TOWARD OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
OVERLAP OF INSTABILITY AND OVER 30 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR,
BUT IT`S TO EARLY TO ACCESS THE DEGREE OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS GENLY REMAIN IN THE 1000 TO 1500 FT RANGE. THERE ARE
SOME SUB 100 FT VALUES AS WELL. THE EXPECTED TREND IS DOWNWARD
INTO IFR AND EVEN LIFR OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, DOWNWARD TREND MAY BE
SLOWER FCST. IF THERE IS ANY DRIZZLE THAT OCCURS, THERE COULD BE
BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS AS WELL. HOWEVER, SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
AND PATCHY DRIZZLE FROM TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE
THE VISIBILITY TO 5 MILES OR LESS IN SPOTS.

THE WIND SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE NORTHEAST AT 6 TO 12 KNOTS.
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM AROUND KPHL EAST AND SOUTHWARD
ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: FREQUENT MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VSBYS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. EASTERLY WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

MONDAY: VFR, WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN A
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON OUR COASTAL WATERS FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FEET AND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE OUR WATERS OFF DELAWARE.

OUTLOOK...

AN SCA IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL REMAIN
AT OR JUST OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH SATURDAY. SEAS WILL DECREASE FOR
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A PERIOD OF EASTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND
20 KNOTS IS LIKELY FRIDAY ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF NORTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE TIDAL SURGE RANGED FROM +0.7 TO +1.0 FOOT ALONG THE NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE COAST DURING THIS MORNING`S HIGH TIDE. THE PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE TIDAL SURGE TO BE AROUND +1.0
TO +1.3 FEET FOR THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE. THOSE VALUES ALONG WITH
THE INCREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AS WE APPROACH FRIDAY`S NEW MOON
SHOULD RESULT IN MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE COASTS THIS EVENING. THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT.

MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY TO EXTEND INTO THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT CYCLES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ012>014-020>027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GAINES/IOVINO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KLWX 050121
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
921 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY EVENING. A WEAK
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS DIVING INTO OH VALLEY TONIGHT AND
REACHES THE CAROLINAS BY THU AFTERNOON. AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO
FALL THIS EVENING AND SFC CONVERGENCE INCREASES...RAIN WILL BECOME
MORE PERSISTENT AND ORGANIZED ESPECIALLY OVER AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE MTNS. STILL A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES NEAR CHO AND CBE...AND
THUNDER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN WESTERN SECTIONS THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT. FROM THE GREATER DC AREA TO THE NORTHEAST...HIGH
PRESSURE IS WEDGING IN...AND MARINE FLOW IS RESULTING IN DZ.
EXPECT THIS TO BE PRIMARY PRECIP OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP. GUIDANCE IS NOT TOO PESSIMISTIC ON
VSBY...BUT SOME LIGHT FOG IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...WORSE AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS. MIN TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED
SLIGHTLY IN THE N/E GIVEN READINGS ALREADY IN THE LOWER-MID 50S.

THE LATEST GFS SHOWS A SFC CONVERGENCE ZONE ESTABLISHING FROM
PETERSBURG WV SOUTHEAST TO CHARLOTTESVILLE TONIGHT AND REMAINING
STATIONARY THROUGH ALL DAY THURSDAY. ON AVERAGE...GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN APPEAR POSSIBLE IN THAT AREA. SINCE
THIS APPEARS TO BE A PROLONGED AND SLOW EVENT...FLASH FLOODING IS
NOT A THREAT BUT RISES ON SOME AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS CAN BE
EXPECTED. N/E SECTIONS OF THE CWA MAY REMAIN IN A MORE DRIZZLY
ENVIRONMENT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. HAVE
LOWERED MAX TEMPS...ESPECIALLY SW (MDT RAIN) AND NE (CLOUDS/NE
FLOW).

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW SHIFTS SOUTHWARD THU NIGHT WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING SFC
CONVERGENCE ZONE SHIFTING MORE EASTWARD TOWARD DC/BALT METRO AREAS
FOCUSING SHOWERS MORE IN THAT AREA. EXPECT DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMPS
TO REMAIN MINIMIZED DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPR LEVEL LOW WILL LINGER AROUND THROUGH THE DAY SAT... KEEPING
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AND PARTLY CLOUDY... MAINLY IN THE EASTERN PART
OF THE CWA. SOME CLEARING PSBL AS UPR LOW MOVES AWAY... BUT CLOUDS
QUICKLY RETURN SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
OUR REGION.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS TO OUR SOUTH AS A WEAK HIGH PRESS BUILDS
NEAR OUR REGION SUN INTO LATE MON. FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY LIFTS
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUE INTO WED BRINGING BACK SHOWERS TO OUR
REGION.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE GRADUALLY INCREASING FROM THE LOW 70S INTO THE
UPR 70S DURING THIS PERIOD... LOW TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...
40S SUN NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TSRA NEAR CHO AT 01Z...BUT OTHERWISE PRECIP IS LIGHT AND SPOTTY.
MARINE LAYER INVADING NORTHERN TERMINALS AND MAY MAKE DZ THE MORE
PREDOMINANT PTYPE OVERNIGHT. SHRA DEVELOPMENT MAY STILL OCCUR AT
MRB/CHO OVERNIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CIGS OVERSPREADING THE AREA...AND
WILL EVENTUALLY REACH CHO. THESE MAY LIFT SOME DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY ONLY TO FALL AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS NOT TOO
PESSIMISTIC ON VSBY OVERNIGHT...BUT ALREADY SEEING SOME VERIFY
LOWER IN DZ AND BR. MDT RAIN LIKELY AT CHO ON THURSDAY FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON WITH IFR OR LOWER RESTRICTIONS LIKELY.
LIGHTER SHRA OR DZ ELSEWHERE. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PIVOTS TO OUR S/E.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT INTO EARLY SUN AS UPR LEVEL LOW
AND COLD FRONT BRING SHOWERS INTO OUR REGION. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED LATER ON SUN AND INTO MON AS HIGH PRESS BUILDS IN.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE TO NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR THE
MOST PART WINDS WILL BE 5-10 KT. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SLIGHTLY
STRONGER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS...BUT ATTM APPEARS THIS MAY
ONLY RESULT IN 15 KT GUSTS AND PRECLUDE AN SCA.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT AND MON AS WINDS WILL BE BELOW THE
SCA CRITERIA. SCA CONDITIONS PSBL ON SUN WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ONSHORE FLOW HAS RESULTED ON ELEVATED WATER LEVELS AROUND ONE FOOT
ABOVE NORMAL. THE LEVELS HAVE SEEMINGLY LEVELED OFF FOR THE TIME
BEING...BUT PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW NEXT FEW DAYS WILL RESULT IN
WATER LEVELS RISING FURTHER. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING LIKELY AT
MANY COASTAL LOCATIONS ALONG THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND POTOMAC RIVER.
MODERATE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AT STRAITS POINT AND ANNAPOLIS IF
THE HIGHER ESTOFS SURGE VERIFIES. HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR THE MORE CERTAIN LOCATIONS FROM ANNAPOLIS SOUTHWARD.
DEPENDING ON TRENDS THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...MAY CONSIDER EXPANDING
THE ADVISORY TO BALTIMORE AND DC/ALEXANDRIA. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS
DETERMINE IF WATER LEVELS WARRANT A CONTINUATION OF THE ADVISORY
OR IF THE INTERMEDIARY HIGH TIDE CYCLE WILL FALL JUST SHORT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ017-018.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...ADS/LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...ADS/IMR
MARINE...ADS/IMR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ADS/LFR




000
FXUS61 KLWX 050121
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
921 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY EVENING. A WEAK
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS DIVING INTO OH VALLEY TONIGHT AND
REACHES THE CAROLINAS BY THU AFTERNOON. AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO
FALL THIS EVENING AND SFC CONVERGENCE INCREASES...RAIN WILL BECOME
MORE PERSISTENT AND ORGANIZED ESPECIALLY OVER AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE MTNS. STILL A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES NEAR CHO AND CBE...AND
THUNDER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN WESTERN SECTIONS THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT. FROM THE GREATER DC AREA TO THE NORTHEAST...HIGH
PRESSURE IS WEDGING IN...AND MARINE FLOW IS RESULTING IN DZ.
EXPECT THIS TO BE PRIMARY PRECIP OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP. GUIDANCE IS NOT TOO PESSIMISTIC ON
VSBY...BUT SOME LIGHT FOG IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...WORSE AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS. MIN TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED
SLIGHTLY IN THE N/E GIVEN READINGS ALREADY IN THE LOWER-MID 50S.

THE LATEST GFS SHOWS A SFC CONVERGENCE ZONE ESTABLISHING FROM
PETERSBURG WV SOUTHEAST TO CHARLOTTESVILLE TONIGHT AND REMAINING
STATIONARY THROUGH ALL DAY THURSDAY. ON AVERAGE...GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN APPEAR POSSIBLE IN THAT AREA. SINCE
THIS APPEARS TO BE A PROLONGED AND SLOW EVENT...FLASH FLOODING IS
NOT A THREAT BUT RISES ON SOME AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS CAN BE
EXPECTED. N/E SECTIONS OF THE CWA MAY REMAIN IN A MORE DRIZZLY
ENVIRONMENT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. HAVE
LOWERED MAX TEMPS...ESPECIALLY SW (MDT RAIN) AND NE (CLOUDS/NE
FLOW).

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW SHIFTS SOUTHWARD THU NIGHT WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING SFC
CONVERGENCE ZONE SHIFTING MORE EASTWARD TOWARD DC/BALT METRO AREAS
FOCUSING SHOWERS MORE IN THAT AREA. EXPECT DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMPS
TO REMAIN MINIMIZED DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPR LEVEL LOW WILL LINGER AROUND THROUGH THE DAY SAT... KEEPING
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AND PARTLY CLOUDY... MAINLY IN THE EASTERN PART
OF THE CWA. SOME CLEARING PSBL AS UPR LOW MOVES AWAY... BUT CLOUDS
QUICKLY RETURN SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
OUR REGION.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS TO OUR SOUTH AS A WEAK HIGH PRESS BUILDS
NEAR OUR REGION SUN INTO LATE MON. FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY LIFTS
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUE INTO WED BRINGING BACK SHOWERS TO OUR
REGION.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE GRADUALLY INCREASING FROM THE LOW 70S INTO THE
UPR 70S DURING THIS PERIOD... LOW TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...
40S SUN NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TSRA NEAR CHO AT 01Z...BUT OTHERWISE PRECIP IS LIGHT AND SPOTTY.
MARINE LAYER INVADING NORTHERN TERMINALS AND MAY MAKE DZ THE MORE
PREDOMINANT PTYPE OVERNIGHT. SHRA DEVELOPMENT MAY STILL OCCUR AT
MRB/CHO OVERNIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CIGS OVERSPREADING THE AREA...AND
WILL EVENTUALLY REACH CHO. THESE MAY LIFT SOME DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY ONLY TO FALL AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS NOT TOO
PESSIMISTIC ON VSBY OVERNIGHT...BUT ALREADY SEEING SOME VERIFY
LOWER IN DZ AND BR. MDT RAIN LIKELY AT CHO ON THURSDAY FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON WITH IFR OR LOWER RESTRICTIONS LIKELY.
LIGHTER SHRA OR DZ ELSEWHERE. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PIVOTS TO OUR S/E.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT INTO EARLY SUN AS UPR LEVEL LOW
AND COLD FRONT BRING SHOWERS INTO OUR REGION. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED LATER ON SUN AND INTO MON AS HIGH PRESS BUILDS IN.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE TO NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR THE
MOST PART WINDS WILL BE 5-10 KT. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SLIGHTLY
STRONGER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS...BUT ATTM APPEARS THIS MAY
ONLY RESULT IN 15 KT GUSTS AND PRECLUDE AN SCA.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT AND MON AS WINDS WILL BE BELOW THE
SCA CRITERIA. SCA CONDITIONS PSBL ON SUN WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ONSHORE FLOW HAS RESULTED ON ELEVATED WATER LEVELS AROUND ONE FOOT
ABOVE NORMAL. THE LEVELS HAVE SEEMINGLY LEVELED OFF FOR THE TIME
BEING...BUT PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW NEXT FEW DAYS WILL RESULT IN
WATER LEVELS RISING FURTHER. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING LIKELY AT
MANY COASTAL LOCATIONS ALONG THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND POTOMAC RIVER.
MODERATE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AT STRAITS POINT AND ANNAPOLIS IF
THE HIGHER ESTOFS SURGE VERIFIES. HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR THE MORE CERTAIN LOCATIONS FROM ANNAPOLIS SOUTHWARD.
DEPENDING ON TRENDS THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...MAY CONSIDER EXPANDING
THE ADVISORY TO BALTIMORE AND DC/ALEXANDRIA. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS
DETERMINE IF WATER LEVELS WARRANT A CONTINUATION OF THE ADVISORY
OR IF THE INTERMEDIARY HIGH TIDE CYCLE WILL FALL JUST SHORT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ017-018.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...ADS/LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...ADS/IMR
MARINE...ADS/IMR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ADS/LFR




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 050103
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
903 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MADE SOME CHANGES TO POPS BASED ON RADAR AND NEAR-TERM MODEL
TRENDS. STILL EXPECT DEFORMATION ZONE TO TAKE ON MORE OF A
NORTHWEST/SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION WITH TIME THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTH. FOCUS WILL BE ON THE
SOUTHEAST CWA AFTER 06Z. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON RAINFALL TOTALS IN
THIS AREA AS FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY LOW...PARTICULARLY
IN MARION/MONONGALIA COUNTIES. STILL THINK RAINFALL RATES WILL NOT
BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS. WILL CONTINUE
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION INTO THIS EVENING AS WELL. CL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR THURSDAY...

THURSDAY WILL SEE CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LOW
CENTER SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE H5 CLOSED LOW MENTIONED ABOVE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRI NIGHT...WITH VORTICITY LOBES
CIRCUMNAVIGATING THE SYSTEM. THESE WAVES WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS IN
THE SERN ZONES AND ESPECIALLY IN THE RIDGES ON THU NIGHT...WHERE
MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.

BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON SATURDAY WILL HELP DIVERT THE UPPER
LOW AND BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION FOR SAT AFTERNOON. A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL SHUNT THE UPPER RIDGE SEWD...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CONSEQUENTLY INCREASING SAT NIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PRECIPITATION SAT NIGHT WILL EXIT QUICKLY BY SUN MORNING IN THE
WAKE OF THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH LITTLE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON SUN...THE REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE
NRN SIDE OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THUS...MAXIMA WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY-BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW-MID 60S.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAD BEEN LOCATED IN THE SWRN
CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL EJECT SLOWLY INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE
OVER THE ERN CONUS AND ATTENDANT INCREASE IN WARM AIR BEGINNING ON
MON. NEAR-CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS WERE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST DURING
THIS TIME AS THE FCST AREA WILL RESIDE IN THE MOIST WARM SECTOR.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS TIMING DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MEDIUM-RANGE
MODELS...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE
WED/THU AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE
REGION. GIVEN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES...THIS COMBINATION OF
FEATURES WARRANTS GENERAL HEIGHTENED POPS AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER DURING ITS TENURE IN THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH FOCUS ALONG AN APPROACHING FRONT AND SHORTWAVE. LOW
PRESSURE DIVING SOUTHWARD WILL SLOWLY PIVOT THIS AREA OF SHOWERS
OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. MAINLY MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT BUT SOME IFR MAY BE POSSIBLE
TOWARD SUNRISE. AT THIS TIME...HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON THE
PREVAILING IFR FORECAST...BUT WILL WATCH UPSTREAM TRENDS TONIGHT.

CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE EARLY TOMORROW BUT DIURNAL SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO FLOURISH AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH FRI WITH PERSISTENT LOW
PRESSURE...AND AGAIN WITH A COLD FRONT ON SAT NIGHT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 050015
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
815 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER AIR LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND
TRACKING INTO NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN EVENTUALLY WEAKENS INTO AN UPPER TROUGH AND PUSHES
OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO GENERATE ALONG A WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NJ ALONG CHES BAY INTO ERN NC. THE
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN PULSING UP IN ERN VA WITH A QUICK BURST OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY ACCUMULATING QPF
AMOUNTS OF 0.25 INCHES OR LESS. A DRY SLOT MOVING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SW WILL KEEP SHOWER CHANCES LOW GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95 THE REST OF THE EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRAY SHOWER OR TWO GLANCING THE ERN PIEDMONT. NEXT BATCH OF
SHOWERS MOVES INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SE FROM THE MIDWEST
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. EXPECT PRIMARILY MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WX WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE FA THU INTO FRI NGT...AS UPR
AIR LO PRES TRACKS SE INTO NC THU AFTN/EVENG...THEN LIFTS NWDACRS
THE REGION THU EVENG THRU FRI EVENG. POPS INCREASE QUICKLY TO CAT
(80%) OR LIKELY (70-60%) OVR WSW COUNTIES BY EARLY THU AFTN...DUE
TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED LO LVL MOISTURE AND IMPRESSIVE
LIFT IN ADVANCE OF THE UPR LO. POPS WILL THEN INCREASE TO AT LEAST
40-60% OVR THE ERN/NE HALF OF THE AREA FOR THU EVENG INTO FRI
MORNG...AS THE UPR LO LIFTS NWD FM ERN NC INTO ERN VA. POPS REMAIN
AT 30-60% FRI AFTN INTO FRI EVENG...THEN DECREASE TO 20-30% LATER
FRI NGT THRU SAT...AS THE UPR LO WEAKENS INTO AN UPR TROF AND
EVENTUALLY PUSHES OFF THE CST SAT AFTN. RAINFALL AMTS WILL BE
HIGHEST OVR THE VA PIEDMONT ALNG AND W OF INTERSTATE 95...WITH 1
TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE THRU THE EVENT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FM
THE UPR 50S TO UPR 60S ON THU...FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S
FRI...AND FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SAT. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN
THE UPR 40S TO LWR 50S THU NGT AND FRI NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOOKS ON
TRACK TO CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. GFS/CMC/ECMWF TIMING IS FAIRLY
SIMILAR...WITH THE FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO NC BY MIDDAY SUN.
MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED WITH THIS BOUNDARY...WITH SO WILL
MAINTAIN THE 20%/SLIGHT CHC POP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHS
SUNDAY RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S (AROUND 80 F SOUTH) AFTER
MORNING LOWS IN THE 50S. A MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO GENERALLY DRY AND MILD TO WARM
CONDITIONS. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 70S MONDAY LOOK TO
MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW-MID 80S TUE/WED. WITH A WEAK
SFC BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA AS THIS WARMING TREND OCCURS
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ON TUE THOUGH WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED AT
20%. NEXT COLD FRONT SLATED FOR LATE WED/THU...SO HAVE 20-30% CHC
POPS BY WED AFTN (HIGHEST NW).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
THROUGH THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY AND INTO THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE SLIDING TO THE EAST ON
SUNDAY.

WIDELY SCATTERED BUT DISSIPATING SHOWERS WERE OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA
EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. IFR CONDS WILL BE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. THE
QUESTION THEN COMES AS TO HOW MUCH IMPROVEMENT OCCURS ON THURSDAY.
FOLLOWED CLOSE TO NAM MOS WHICH DID FAIRLY WELL DURING THE LAST 24
HOURS. HAVE CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO HIGH END IFR AT ALL SITES AND TO
LOW END MVFR IN THE AFTN AT RIC PHF AND ECG. ALSO INTRODUCED SHOWERS
THURSDAY AFTN TO ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT SBY.

OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED AND POTENTIALLY IFR CONDS CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT ON SATURDAY. DRY AND VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
OVER ERN CANADA...AND SFC LOW ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. THE SFC
LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF THE NC COAST AND MOVE NE ALONG THE
GULF STREAM THU...WITH A SECONDARY LOW HANGING BACK OVER VA/NC
THROUGH FRI (THIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL PARK
ITSELF OVER THE REGION). RAISING SCA HEADLINES ACRS THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS PER LATEST OBS/TRENDS. GENLY A MARGINAL EVENT BUT
THE PROLONGED NE FLOW OF 15-20KT OVER THE NRN COASTAL WATERS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN 5 FT SEAS THROUGH AT LEAST THU NIGHT
(POSSIBLY CONTINUING FRI). ELSEWHERE ACRS THE MARINE AREA...WINDS
ARE CURRENTLY FROM THE NE AND ARE SLOWLY INCREASING BUT SPEEDS
GENLY LOOK TO STAY AT OR BELOW 15 KT THROUGH THE NEXT 2 DAYS. SOME
OF THE HIGH RES MODEL DATA SHOWS THERE COULD BE SOME MARGINAL
GUSTS TO 20 KT ON THU INTO THE BAY BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY SCA
ISSUANCES THERE FOR NOW. WAVES IN THE BAY SHOULD AVG 1-2 FT
TONIGHT AND 2-3 FT THU/THU NIGHT. SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
SOUTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND WILL AVG 3-4 FT. PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS AGAIN FRI/FRI NIGHT AND WIND DIRECTIONS MAY BE SOMEWHAT
CHAOTIC DEPENDING ON EXACT LOCATION OF THE SFC LOW (SPEEDS MAINLY
5-10 KT). THIS SECOND LOW THEN MOVES OFFSHORE SAT/SAT NIGHT WITH A
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE WATERS ON SUNDAY. NOT MUCH COLD AIR BEHIND
THIS FRONT SO DOUBT SCA CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH SEAS TO AVG
2-4 FT AND 1-2 FT WAVES IN THE BAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RISING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ALONG WITH CONTINUED NE FLOW IS LEADING
TO TIDAL DEPARTURES CURRENTLY AVERAGING AROUND 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL.
APPEARS MOST AREAS WILL FALL JUST SHY OF MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS
WITH THE UPCOMING EVENING HIGH TIDE BUT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT
AT LEAST A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY OVER
MUCH OF THE LOWER BAY/SRN COASTAL WATERS. ANOMALIES ARE LIKELY TO
INCREASE A BIT THU...AND WILL PROBABLY NEED A CSTL FLOOD ADSY BY
THU EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...BMD/TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LKB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 050015
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
815 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER AIR LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND
TRACKING INTO NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN EVENTUALLY WEAKENS INTO AN UPPER TROUGH AND PUSHES
OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO GENERATE ALONG A WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NJ ALONG CHES BAY INTO ERN NC. THE
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN PULSING UP IN ERN VA WITH A QUICK BURST OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY ACCUMULATING QPF
AMOUNTS OF 0.25 INCHES OR LESS. A DRY SLOT MOVING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SW WILL KEEP SHOWER CHANCES LOW GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95 THE REST OF THE EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRAY SHOWER OR TWO GLANCING THE ERN PIEDMONT. NEXT BATCH OF
SHOWERS MOVES INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SE FROM THE MIDWEST
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. EXPECT PRIMARILY MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WX WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE FA THU INTO FRI NGT...AS UPR
AIR LO PRES TRACKS SE INTO NC THU AFTN/EVENG...THEN LIFTS NWDACRS
THE REGION THU EVENG THRU FRI EVENG. POPS INCREASE QUICKLY TO CAT
(80%) OR LIKELY (70-60%) OVR WSW COUNTIES BY EARLY THU AFTN...DUE
TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED LO LVL MOISTURE AND IMPRESSIVE
LIFT IN ADVANCE OF THE UPR LO. POPS WILL THEN INCREASE TO AT LEAST
40-60% OVR THE ERN/NE HALF OF THE AREA FOR THU EVENG INTO FRI
MORNG...AS THE UPR LO LIFTS NWD FM ERN NC INTO ERN VA. POPS REMAIN
AT 30-60% FRI AFTN INTO FRI EVENG...THEN DECREASE TO 20-30% LATER
FRI NGT THRU SAT...AS THE UPR LO WEAKENS INTO AN UPR TROF AND
EVENTUALLY PUSHES OFF THE CST SAT AFTN. RAINFALL AMTS WILL BE
HIGHEST OVR THE VA PIEDMONT ALNG AND W OF INTERSTATE 95...WITH 1
TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE THRU THE EVENT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FM
THE UPR 50S TO UPR 60S ON THU...FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S
FRI...AND FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SAT. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN
THE UPR 40S TO LWR 50S THU NGT AND FRI NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOOKS ON
TRACK TO CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. GFS/CMC/ECMWF TIMING IS FAIRLY
SIMILAR...WITH THE FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO NC BY MIDDAY SUN.
MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED WITH THIS BOUNDARY...WITH SO WILL
MAINTAIN THE 20%/SLIGHT CHC POP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHS
SUNDAY RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S (AROUND 80 F SOUTH) AFTER
MORNING LOWS IN THE 50S. A MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO GENERALLY DRY AND MILD TO WARM
CONDITIONS. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 70S MONDAY LOOK TO
MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW-MID 80S TUE/WED. WITH A WEAK
SFC BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA AS THIS WARMING TREND OCCURS
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ON TUE THOUGH WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED AT
20%. NEXT COLD FRONT SLATED FOR LATE WED/THU...SO HAVE 20-30% CHC
POPS BY WED AFTN (HIGHEST NW).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
THROUGH THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY AND INTO THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE SLIDING TO THE EAST ON
SUNDAY.

WIDELY SCATTERED BUT DISSIPATING SHOWERS WERE OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA
EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. IFR CONDS WILL BE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. THE
QUESTION THEN COMES AS TO HOW MUCH IMPROVEMENT OCCURS ON THURSDAY.
FOLLOWED CLOSE TO NAM MOS WHICH DID FAIRLY WELL DURING THE LAST 24
HOURS. HAVE CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO HIGH END IFR AT ALL SITES AND TO
LOW END MVFR IN THE AFTN AT RIC PHF AND ECG. ALSO INTRODUCED SHOWERS
THURSDAY AFTN TO ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT SBY.

OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED AND POTENTIALLY IFR CONDS CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT ON SATURDAY. DRY AND VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
OVER ERN CANADA...AND SFC LOW ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. THE SFC
LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF THE NC COAST AND MOVE NE ALONG THE
GULF STREAM THU...WITH A SECONDARY LOW HANGING BACK OVER VA/NC
THROUGH FRI (THIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL PARK
ITSELF OVER THE REGION). RAISING SCA HEADLINES ACRS THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS PER LATEST OBS/TRENDS. GENLY A MARGINAL EVENT BUT
THE PROLONGED NE FLOW OF 15-20KT OVER THE NRN COASTAL WATERS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN 5 FT SEAS THROUGH AT LEAST THU NIGHT
(POSSIBLY CONTINUING FRI). ELSEWHERE ACRS THE MARINE AREA...WINDS
ARE CURRENTLY FROM THE NE AND ARE SLOWLY INCREASING BUT SPEEDS
GENLY LOOK TO STAY AT OR BELOW 15 KT THROUGH THE NEXT 2 DAYS. SOME
OF THE HIGH RES MODEL DATA SHOWS THERE COULD BE SOME MARGINAL
GUSTS TO 20 KT ON THU INTO THE BAY BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY SCA
ISSUANCES THERE FOR NOW. WAVES IN THE BAY SHOULD AVG 1-2 FT
TONIGHT AND 2-3 FT THU/THU NIGHT. SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
SOUTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND WILL AVG 3-4 FT. PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS AGAIN FRI/FRI NIGHT AND WIND DIRECTIONS MAY BE SOMEWHAT
CHAOTIC DEPENDING ON EXACT LOCATION OF THE SFC LOW (SPEEDS MAINLY
5-10 KT). THIS SECOND LOW THEN MOVES OFFSHORE SAT/SAT NIGHT WITH A
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE WATERS ON SUNDAY. NOT MUCH COLD AIR BEHIND
THIS FRONT SO DOUBT SCA CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH SEAS TO AVG
2-4 FT AND 1-2 FT WAVES IN THE BAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RISING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ALONG WITH CONTINUED NE FLOW IS LEADING
TO TIDAL DEPARTURES CURRENTLY AVERAGING AROUND 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL.
APPEARS MOST AREAS WILL FALL JUST SHY OF MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS
WITH THE UPCOMING EVENING HIGH TIDE BUT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT
AT LEAST A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY OVER
MUCH OF THE LOWER BAY/SRN COASTAL WATERS. ANOMALIES ARE LIKELY TO
INCREASE A BIT THU...AND WILL PROBABLY NEED A CSTL FLOOD ADSY BY
THU EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...BMD/TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LKB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 042331
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
731 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER AIR LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND
TRACKING INTO NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN EVENTUALLY WEAKENS INTO AN UPPER TROUGH AND PUSHES
OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO GENERATE ALONG A WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NJ ALONG CHES BAY INTO ERN NC. THE
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN PULSING UP IN ERN VA WITH A QUICK BURST OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY ACCUMULATING QPF
AMOUNTS OF 0.25 INCHES OR LESS. A DRY SLOT MOVING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SW WILL KEEP SHOWER CHANCES LOW GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95 THE REST OF THE EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRAY SHOWER OR TWO GLANCING THE ERN PIEDMONT. NEXT BATCH OF
SHOWERS MOVES INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SE FROM THE MIDWEST
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. EXPECT PRIMARILY MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WX WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE FA THU INTO FRI NGT...AS UPR
AIR LO PRES TRACKS SE INTO NC THU AFTN/EVENG...THEN LIFTS NWDACRS
THE REGION THU EVENG THRU FRI EVENG. POPS INCREASE QUICKLY TO CAT
(80%) OR LIKELY (70-60%) OVR WSW COUNTIES BY EARLY THU AFTN...DUE
TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED LO LVL MOISTURE AND IMPRESSIVE
LIFT IN ADVANCE OF THE UPR LO. POPS WILL THEN INCREASE TO AT LEAST
40-60% OVR THE ERN/NE HALF OF THE AREA FOR THU EVENG INTO FRI
MORNG...AS THE UPR LO LIFTS NWD FM ERN NC INTO ERN VA. POPS REMAIN
AT 30-60% FRI AFTN INTO FRI EVENG...THEN DECREASE TO 20-30% LATER
FRI NGT THRU SAT...AS THE UPR LO WEAKENS INTO AN UPR TROF AND
EVENTUALLY PUSHES OFF THE CST SAT AFTN. RAINFALL AMTS WILL BE
HIGHEST OVR THE VA PIEDMONT ALNG AND W OF INTERSTATE 95...WITH 1
TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE THRU THE EVENT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FM
THE UPR 50S TO UPR 60S ON THU...FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S
FRI...AND FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SAT. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN
THE UPR 40S TO LWR 50S THU NGT AND FRI NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOOKS ON
TRACK TO CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. GFS/CMC/ECMWF TIMING IS FAIRLY
SIMILAR...WITH THE FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO NC BY MIDDAY SUN.
MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED WITH THIS BOUNDARY...WITH SO WILL
MAINTAIN THE 20%/SLIGHT CHC POP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHS
SUNDAY RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S (AROUND 80 F SOUTH) AFTER
MORNING LOWS IN THE 50S. A MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO GENERALLY DRY AND MILD TO WARM
CONDITIONS. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 70S MONDAY LOOK TO
MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW-MID 80S TUE/WED. WITH A WEAK
SFC BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA AS THIS WARMING TREND OCCURS
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ON TUE THOUGH WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED AT
20%. NEXT COLD FRONT SLATED FOR LATE WED/THU...SO HAVE 20-30% CHC
POPS BY WED AFTN (HIGHEST NW).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SITUATED ALONG THE CAROLINA AND OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COASTS EARLY THIS AFTN. LIGHT NE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT IS MAINTAINING IFR CIGS AT SBY/ORF/PHF. GRADUAL LIFTING
OF CIGS IS OCCURRING FARTHER INLAND IN VA AND OVER ERN NC...WITH
RIC/ECG LIFTING TO MVFR LEADING UP TO 18Z. SOME GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EWD THIS AFTN WITH PHF
FORECAST TO REACH MVFR. SBY/ORF ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IFR THROUGH
THE AFTN. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LOOSELY ORGANIZE
FROM ERN NC TO OFF THE NC COAST OVERNIGHT AS A POTENT UPPER LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE W. IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR ALL
TERMINALS TONIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VSBY FALLING TO 2-4SM
LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH AREAS OF RAIN DEVELOPING BY AFTN. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM SLIDES OFFSHORE...WITH A COLD FRONT
SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
OVER ERN CANADA...AND SFC LOW ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. THE SFC
LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF THE NC COAST AND MOVE NE ALONG THE
GULF STREAM THU...WITH A SECONDARY LOW HANGING BACK OVER VA/NC
THROUGH FRI (THIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL PARK
ITSELF OVER THE REGION). RAISING SCA HEADLINES ACRS THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS PER LATEST OBS/TRENDS. GENLY A MARGINAL EVENT BUT
THE PROLONGED NE FLOW OF 15-20KT OVER THE NRN COASTAL WATERS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN 5 FT SEAS THROUGH AT LEAST THU NIGHT
(POSSIBLY CONTINUING FRI). ELSEWHERE ACRS THE MARINE AREA...WINDS
ARE CURRENTLY FROM THE NE AND ARE SLOWLY INCREASING BUT SPEEDS
GENLY LOOK TO STAY AT OR BELOW 15 KT THROUGH THE NEXT 2 DAYS. SOME
OF THE HIGH RES MODEL DATA SHOWS THERE COULD BE SOME MARGINAL
GUSTS TO 20 KT ON THU INTO THE BAY BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY SCA
ISSUANCES THERE FOR NOW. WAVES IN THE BAY SHOULD AVG 1-2 FT
TONIGHT AND 2-3 FT THU/THU NIGHT. SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
SOUTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND WILL AVG 3-4 FT. PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS AGAIN FRI/FRI NIGHT AND WIND DIRECTIONS MAY BE SOMEWHAT
CHAOTIC DEPENDING ON EXACT LOCATION OF THE SFC LOW (SPEEDS MAINLY
5-10 KT). THIS SECOND LOW THEN MOVES OFFSHORE SAT/SAT NIGHT WITH A
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE WATERS ON SUNDAY. NOT MUCH COLD AIR BEHIND
THIS FRONT SO DOUBT SCA CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH SEAS TO AVG
2-4 FT AND 1-2 FT WAVES IN THE BAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RISING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ALONG WITH CONTINUED NE FLOW IS LEADING
TO TIDAL DEPARTURES CURRENTLY AVERAGING AROUND 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL.
APPEARS MOST AREAS WILL FALL JUST SHY OF MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS
WITH THE UPCOMING EVENING HIGH TIDE BUT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT
AT LEAST A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY OVER
MUCH OF THE LOWER BAY/SRN COASTAL WATERS. ANOMALIES ARE LIKELY TO
INCREASE A BIT THU...AND WILL PROBABLY NEED A CSTL FLOOD ADSY BY
THU EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...LKB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LKB




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 042331
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
731 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER AIR LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND
TRACKING INTO NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN EVENTUALLY WEAKENS INTO AN UPPER TROUGH AND PUSHES
OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO GENERATE ALONG A WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NJ ALONG CHES BAY INTO ERN NC. THE
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN PULSING UP IN ERN VA WITH A QUICK BURST OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY ACCUMULATING QPF
AMOUNTS OF 0.25 INCHES OR LESS. A DRY SLOT MOVING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SW WILL KEEP SHOWER CHANCES LOW GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95 THE REST OF THE EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRAY SHOWER OR TWO GLANCING THE ERN PIEDMONT. NEXT BATCH OF
SHOWERS MOVES INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SE FROM THE MIDWEST
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. EXPECT PRIMARILY MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WX WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE FA THU INTO FRI NGT...AS UPR
AIR LO PRES TRACKS SE INTO NC THU AFTN/EVENG...THEN LIFTS NWDACRS
THE REGION THU EVENG THRU FRI EVENG. POPS INCREASE QUICKLY TO CAT
(80%) OR LIKELY (70-60%) OVR WSW COUNTIES BY EARLY THU AFTN...DUE
TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED LO LVL MOISTURE AND IMPRESSIVE
LIFT IN ADVANCE OF THE UPR LO. POPS WILL THEN INCREASE TO AT LEAST
40-60% OVR THE ERN/NE HALF OF THE AREA FOR THU EVENG INTO FRI
MORNG...AS THE UPR LO LIFTS NWD FM ERN NC INTO ERN VA. POPS REMAIN
AT 30-60% FRI AFTN INTO FRI EVENG...THEN DECREASE TO 20-30% LATER
FRI NGT THRU SAT...AS THE UPR LO WEAKENS INTO AN UPR TROF AND
EVENTUALLY PUSHES OFF THE CST SAT AFTN. RAINFALL AMTS WILL BE
HIGHEST OVR THE VA PIEDMONT ALNG AND W OF INTERSTATE 95...WITH 1
TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE THRU THE EVENT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FM
THE UPR 50S TO UPR 60S ON THU...FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S
FRI...AND FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SAT. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN
THE UPR 40S TO LWR 50S THU NGT AND FRI NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOOKS ON
TRACK TO CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. GFS/CMC/ECMWF TIMING IS FAIRLY
SIMILAR...WITH THE FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO NC BY MIDDAY SUN.
MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED WITH THIS BOUNDARY...WITH SO WILL
MAINTAIN THE 20%/SLIGHT CHC POP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHS
SUNDAY RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S (AROUND 80 F SOUTH) AFTER
MORNING LOWS IN THE 50S. A MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO GENERALLY DRY AND MILD TO WARM
CONDITIONS. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 70S MONDAY LOOK TO
MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW-MID 80S TUE/WED. WITH A WEAK
SFC BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA AS THIS WARMING TREND OCCURS
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ON TUE THOUGH WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED AT
20%. NEXT COLD FRONT SLATED FOR LATE WED/THU...SO HAVE 20-30% CHC
POPS BY WED AFTN (HIGHEST NW).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SITUATED ALONG THE CAROLINA AND OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COASTS EARLY THIS AFTN. LIGHT NE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT IS MAINTAINING IFR CIGS AT SBY/ORF/PHF. GRADUAL LIFTING
OF CIGS IS OCCURRING FARTHER INLAND IN VA AND OVER ERN NC...WITH
RIC/ECG LIFTING TO MVFR LEADING UP TO 18Z. SOME GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EWD THIS AFTN WITH PHF
FORECAST TO REACH MVFR. SBY/ORF ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IFR THROUGH
THE AFTN. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LOOSELY ORGANIZE
FROM ERN NC TO OFF THE NC COAST OVERNIGHT AS A POTENT UPPER LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE W. IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR ALL
TERMINALS TONIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VSBY FALLING TO 2-4SM
LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH AREAS OF RAIN DEVELOPING BY AFTN. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM SLIDES OFFSHORE...WITH A COLD FRONT
SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
OVER ERN CANADA...AND SFC LOW ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. THE SFC
LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF THE NC COAST AND MOVE NE ALONG THE
GULF STREAM THU...WITH A SECONDARY LOW HANGING BACK OVER VA/NC
THROUGH FRI (THIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL PARK
ITSELF OVER THE REGION). RAISING SCA HEADLINES ACRS THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS PER LATEST OBS/TRENDS. GENLY A MARGINAL EVENT BUT
THE PROLONGED NE FLOW OF 15-20KT OVER THE NRN COASTAL WATERS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN 5 FT SEAS THROUGH AT LEAST THU NIGHT
(POSSIBLY CONTINUING FRI). ELSEWHERE ACRS THE MARINE AREA...WINDS
ARE CURRENTLY FROM THE NE AND ARE SLOWLY INCREASING BUT SPEEDS
GENLY LOOK TO STAY AT OR BELOW 15 KT THROUGH THE NEXT 2 DAYS. SOME
OF THE HIGH RES MODEL DATA SHOWS THERE COULD BE SOME MARGINAL
GUSTS TO 20 KT ON THU INTO THE BAY BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY SCA
ISSUANCES THERE FOR NOW. WAVES IN THE BAY SHOULD AVG 1-2 FT
TONIGHT AND 2-3 FT THU/THU NIGHT. SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
SOUTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND WILL AVG 3-4 FT. PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS AGAIN FRI/FRI NIGHT AND WIND DIRECTIONS MAY BE SOMEWHAT
CHAOTIC DEPENDING ON EXACT LOCATION OF THE SFC LOW (SPEEDS MAINLY
5-10 KT). THIS SECOND LOW THEN MOVES OFFSHORE SAT/SAT NIGHT WITH A
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE WATERS ON SUNDAY. NOT MUCH COLD AIR BEHIND
THIS FRONT SO DOUBT SCA CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH SEAS TO AVG
2-4 FT AND 1-2 FT WAVES IN THE BAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RISING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ALONG WITH CONTINUED NE FLOW IS LEADING
TO TIDAL DEPARTURES CURRENTLY AVERAGING AROUND 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL.
APPEARS MOST AREAS WILL FALL JUST SHY OF MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS
WITH THE UPCOMING EVENING HIGH TIDE BUT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT
AT LEAST A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY OVER
MUCH OF THE LOWER BAY/SRN COASTAL WATERS. ANOMALIES ARE LIKELY TO
INCREASE A BIT THU...AND WILL PROBABLY NEED A CSTL FLOOD ADSY BY
THU EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...LKB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LKB




000
FXUS61 KPHI 042227
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
627 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE TONIGHT. DUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE SLOW TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE LATER HALF OF THIS WEEK. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO LINGER JUST OFFSHORE INTO THE
WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WELCOMED HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
RAIN HAS ENDED ACRS THE AREA, WITH THE PRECIP MOVG OFFSHORE.
LATEST GUID KEEPS THE AREA GENLY RAIN FREE FOR MOST OF THE EVE
INTO TONIGHT, EXCEPT PSBLY FOR SOME DZ. THEREFORE, WILL LOWER POPS
CONSIDERABLY WITH THIS UPDATE. HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND LOWERED AFTER THAT.

OTHERWISE, TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER LOOK GOOD.

LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN AT MID AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND
IT IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE COASTAL LOW LATE TONIGHT.

THE SURFACE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST FLOW
IN OUR REGION. AS A RESULT, WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY DRIZZLE TONIGHT ALONG WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL FAVOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A PRIMARY SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE
WATERS OFF NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, A LINGERING AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. AS A
RESULT, WE WILL EXPERIENCE ANOTHER DAY OF NORTHEASTERLY WIND ALONG
WITH LOW CLOUDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: DUAL LOW PRESSURES WILL CONTINUE
THE GRAY AND DREARY PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION IN THIS TIMEFRAME. THE
FIRST AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BE DEPARTING TO THE NORTHEAST
OFF CAPE COD WITH THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CAROLINAS.
THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PROVIDE LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH
ONSHORE FLOW LEADING TO ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES CURRENTLY ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ON FRIDAY WHEN THE TRAILING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LOCATED JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST. RIGHT NOW
MODELING IS FOCUSING THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY. QPF COULD REACH HALF AN
INCH BY FRIDAY NIGHT IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. WITH THE
EXCESSIVE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE WENT A LITTLE COOLER IN THE DAYS
WITH HIGHS THAN WHAT MET/MAV GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST AND WARMER AT
NIGHT,HIGHS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE 50`S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

THERE IS SOME OPTIMISM THAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD BE
DRIER THAN INDICATED IN THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE PACKAGES. HOWEVER, AN
EQUAL POSSIBILITY IS PRESENT THAT THE SECOND LOW WILL LINGER
OFFSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES WARMER AT NIGHT AND COOLER IN THE DAY THAN WHAT VARIOUS
GUIDANCE PACKAGES INDICATE. TEMPERATURES WILL START A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY BE THE ULTIMATE KICKER FOR THE STUBBORN LOW PRESSURE JUST
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR YET ADDITIONAL SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH SOME
CLEARING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
ARRIVES.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ON MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW DRY DAYS AND A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY. THE
CHALLENGE IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE A WARM FRONT DIVIDING A COOLER
MORE MARINE AIRMASS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SENDING MORE SUMMERLIKE
TEMPERATURES INTO OUR REGION. RIGHT NOW THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF
THIS WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK IS STILL UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER, IT DOES
LOOK LIKE THE FRONT MAKES IT NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WOULD
POTENTIALLY RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80`S BY WEDNESDAY.
FOR NOW, HAVE TEMPERED THIS CHANGE IN MODELING KEEPING SOME
CONTINUITY GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
MOVE TOWARD OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
OVERLAP OF INSTABILITY AND OVER 30 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR,
BUT IT`S TO EARLY TO ACCESS THE DEGREE OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO FAVOR THE 1000 TO 1500 FOOT RANGE AT OUR
TAF SITES THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 400 TO 800 FOOT RANGE FOR TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CAUSE THE CLOUD BASES TO
RISE BACK AROUND 1000 TO 1500 FEET FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
VISIBILITY VALUES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY ABOVE 5 MILES. HOWEVER,
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE FROM TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE THE VISIBILITY TO 5 MILES OR LESS IN
SPOTS.

THE WIND SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE NORTHEAST AT 6 TO 12 KNOTS.
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM AROUND KPHL EAST AND SOUTHWARD
ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: FREQUENT MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VSBYS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. EASTERLY WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

MONDAY: VFR, WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN A
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON OUR COASTAL WATERS FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FEET AND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE OUR WATERS OFF DELAWARE.

OUTLOOK...

AN SCA IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL REMAIN
AT OR JUST OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH SATURDAY. SEAS WILL DECREASE FOR
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A PERIOD OF EASTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND
20 KNOTS IS LIKELY FRIDAY ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF NORTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE TIDAL SURGE RANGED FROM +0.7 TO +1.0 FOOT ALONG THE NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE COAST DURING THIS MORNING`S HIGH TIDE. THE PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE TIDAL SURGE TO BE AROUND +1.0
TO +1.3 FEET FOR THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE. THOSE VALUES ALONG WITH
THE INCREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AS WE APPROACH FRIDAY`S NEW MOON
SHOULD RESULT IN MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE COASTS THIS EVENING. THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT.

MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY TO EXTEND INTO THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT CYCLES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ012>014-020>027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GAINES/IOVINO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 042217
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
617 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MADE SOME CHANGES TO POPS BASED ON RADAR AND NEAR-TERM MODEL
TRENDS. STILL EXPECT DEFORMATION ZONE TO TAKE ON MORE OF A
NORTHWEST/SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION WITH TIME THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTH. FOCUS WILL BE ON THE
SOUTHEAST CWA AFTER 06Z. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON RAINFALL TOTALS IN
THIS AREA AS FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY LOW...PARTICULARLY
IN MARION/MONONGALIA COUNTIES. STILL THINK RAINFALL RATES WILL NOT
BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS. WILL CONTINUE
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION INTO THIS EVENING AS WELL. CL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR THURSDAY...

THURSDAY WILL SEE CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LOW
CENTER SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE H5 CLOSED LOW MENTIONED ABOVE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRI NIGHT...WITH VORTICITY LOBES
CIRCUMNAVIGATING THE SYSTEM. THESE WAVES WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS IN
THE SERN ZONES AND ESPECIALLY IN THE RIDGES ON THU NIGHT...WHERE
MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.

BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON SATURDAY WILL HELP DIVERT THE UPPER
LOW AND BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION FOR SAT AFTERNOON. A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL SHUNT THE UPPER RIDGE SEWD...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CONSEQUENTLY INCREASING SAT NIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PRECIPITATION SAT NIGHT WILL EXIT QUICKLY BY SUN MORNING IN THE
WAKE OF THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH LITTLE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON SUN...THE REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE
NRN SIDE OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THUS...MAXIMA WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY-BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW-MID 60S.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAD BEEN LOCATED IN THE SWRN
CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL EJECT SLOWLY INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE
OVER THE ERN CONUS AND ATTENDANT INCREASE IN WARM AIR BEGINNING ON
MON. NEAR-CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS WERE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST DURING
THIS TIME AS THE FCST AREA WILL RESIDE IN THE MOIST WARM SECTOR.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS TIMING DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MEDIUM-RANGE
MODELS...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE
WED/THU AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE
REGION. GIVEN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES...THIS COMBINATION OF
FEATURES WARRANTS GENERAL HEIGHTENED POPS AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER DURING ITS TENURE IN THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNTIL CONDITIONS DETERIORATE THROUGH
THE EVENING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION.
MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR WILL THEN BE LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THU/FRI WITH PERSISTENT LOW
PRESSURE...AND AGAIN WITH A COLD FRONT ON SAT NIGHT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 042038
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
438 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER AIR LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND
TRACKING INTO NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN EVENTUALLY WEAKENS INTO AN UPPER TROUGH AND PUSHES
OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
JUST SOME WEAK ENERGY AND LIFT MOVNG EWRD ACRS THE REGION THRU
EARLY THIS EVENG...WILL RESULT IN JUST ISLTD TO SCTD SHOWERS OR
TSTMS. NO SVR STORMS EXPECTED...AND ANY STRONGER STORM COULD
PRODUCE A WIND GUST TO 30 MPH AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
OTHERWISE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TNGT WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 40S
TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WX WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE FA THU INTO FRI NGT...AS UPR
AIR LO PRES TRACKS SE INTO NC THU AFTN/EVENG...THEN LIFTS NWRD
ACRS THE REGION THU EVENG THRU FRI EVENG. POPS INCREASE QUICKLY TO
CAT (80%) OR LIKELY (70-60%) OVR WSW COUNTIES BY EARLY THU
AFTN...DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED LO LVL MOISTURE AND
IMPRESSIVE LIFT IN ADVANCE OF THE UPR LO. POPS WILL THEN INCREASE
TO AT LEAST 40-60% OVR THE ERN/NE HALF OF THE AREA FOR THU EVENG
INTO FRI MORNG...AS THE UPR LO LIFTS NWRD FM ERN NC INTO ERN VA.
POPS REMAIN AT 30-60% FRI AFTN INTO FRI EVENG...THEN DECREASE TO
20-30% LATER FRI NGT THRU SAT...AS THE UPR LO WEAKENS INTO AN UPR
TROF AND EVENTUALLY PUSHES OFF THE CST SAT AFTN. RAINFALL AMTS
WILL BE HIGHEST OVR THE VA PIEDMONT ALNG AND W OF INTERSTATE
95...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE THRU THE EVENT. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO UPR 60S ON THU...FM THE UPR 50S TO
MID 60S FRI...AND FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SAT. LOWS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE UPR 40S TO LWR 50S THU NGT AND FRI NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOOKS ON
TRACK TO CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. GFS/CMC/ECMWF TIMING IS FAIRLY
SIMILAR...WITH THE FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO NC BY MIDDAY SUN.
MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED WITH THIS BOUNDARY...WITH SO WILL
MAINTAIN THE 20%/SLIGHT CHC POP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHS
SUNDAY RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S (AROUND 80 F SOUTH) AFTER
MORNING LOWS IN THE 50S. A MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO GENERALLY DRY AND MILD TO WARM
CONDITIONS. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 70S MONDAY LOOK TO
MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW-MID 80S TUE/WED. WITH A WEAK
SFC BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA AS THIS WARMING TREND OCCURS
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ON TUE THOUGH WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED AT
20%. NEXT COLD FRONT SLATED FOR LATE WED/THU...SO HAVE 20-30% CHC
POPS BY WED AFTN (HIGHEST NW).

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SITUATED ALONG THE CAROLINA AND OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COASTS EARLY THIS AFTN. LIGHT NE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT IS MAINTAINING IFR CIGS AT SBY/ORF/PHF. GRADUAL LIFTING
OF CIGS IS OCCURRING FARTHER INLAND IN VA AND OVER ERN NC...WITH
RIC/ECG LIFTING TO MVFR LEADING UP TO 18Z. SOME GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EWD THIS AFTN WITH PHF
FORECAST TO REACH MVFR. SBY/ORF ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IFR THROUGH
THE AFTN. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LOOSELY ORGANIZE
FROM ERN NC TO OFF THE NC COAST OVERNIGHT AS A POTENT UPPER LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE W. IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR ALL
TERMINALS TONIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VSBY FALLING TO 2-4SM
LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH AREAS OF RAIN DEVELOPING BY AFTN. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM SLIDES OFFSHORE...WITH A COLD FRONT
SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
OVER ERN CANADA...AND SFC LOW ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. THE SFC
LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF THE NC COAST AND MOVE NE ALONG THE
GULF STREAM THU...WITH A SECONDARY LOW HANGING BACK OVER VA/NC
THROUGH FRI (THIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL PARK
ITSELF OVER THE REGION). RAISING SCA HEADLINES ACRS THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS PER LATEST OBS/TRENDS. GENLY A MARGINAL EVENT BUT
THE PROLONGED NE FLOW OF 15-20KT OVER THE NRN COASTAL WATERS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN 5 FT SEAS THROUGH AT LEAST THU NIGHT
(POSSIBLY CONTINUING FRI). ELSEWHERE ACRS THE MARINE AREA...WINDS
ARE CURRENTLY FROM THE NE AND ARE SLOWLY INCREASING BUT SPEEDS
GENLY LOOK TO STAY AT OR BELOW 15 KT THROUGH THE NEXT 2 DAYS. SOME
OF THE HIGH RES MODEL DATA SHOWS THERE COULD BE SOME MARGINAL
GUSTS TO 20 KT ON THU INTO THE BAY BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY SCA
ISSUANCES THERE FOR NOW. WAVES IN THE BAY SHOULD AVG 1-2 FT
TONIGHT AND 2-3 FT THU/THU NIGHT. SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
SOUTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND WILL AVG 3-4 FT. PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS AGAIN FRI/FRI NIGHT AND WIND DIRECTIONS MAY BE SOMEWHAT
CHAOTIC DEPENDING ON EXACT LOCATION OF THE SFC LOW (SPEEDS MAINLY
5-10 KT). THIS SECOND LOW THEN MOVES OFFSHORE SAT/SAT NIGHT WITH A
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE WATERS ON SUNDAY. NOT MUCH COLD AIR BEHIND
THIS FRONT SO DOUBT SCA CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH SEAS TO AVG
2-4 FT AND 1-2 FT WAVES IN THE BAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RISING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ALONG WITH CONTINUED NE FLOW IS LEADING
TO TIDAL DEPARTURES CURRENTLY AVERAGING AROUND 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL.
APPEARS MOST AREAS WILL FALL JUST SHY OF MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS
WITH THE UPCOMING EVENING HIGH TIDE BUT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT
AT LEAST A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY OVER
MUCH OF THE LOWER BAY/SRN COASTAL WATERS. ANOMALIES ARE LIKELY TO
INCREASE A BIT THU...AND WILL PROBABLY NEED A CSTL FLOOD ADSY BY
THU EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...LKB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 042005
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
405 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER AIR LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND
TRACKING INTO NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN EVENTUALLY WEAKENS INTO AN UPPER TROUGH AND PUSHES
OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
JUST SOME WEAK ENERGY AND LIFT MOVNG EWRD ACRS THE REGION THRU
EARLY THIS EVENG...WILL RESULT IN JUST ISLTD TO SCTD SHOWERS OR
TSTMS. NO SVR STORMS EXPECTED...AND ANY STRONGER STORM COULD
PRODUCE A WIND GUST TO 30 MPH AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
OTHERWISE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TNGT WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 40S
TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WX WILL CONT ACRS THE FA TNGT THRU FRI...AS THE UPR LVL
LO PRES TRACKS SE INTO NC (THU) THEN SITS INVOF ERN VA (FRI).
CONTD VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS THROUGH THE PD...ALG W/ BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY OR HIGHER INLAND DURING THU
AS THE LO MOVES INTO NC. NR THE CST...WILL HAVE POPS MNLY 20-40%.
WILL HAVE MNLY 40-60% POPS THU NGT/FRI. LO TEMPS TNGT IN THE
L-M50S. HI TEMPS WED WILL RANGE FM 60-70F. LO TEMPS LOWS THU NGT
WILL BE IN THE U40S TO L50S. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L-M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOOKS ON
TRACK TO CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. GFS/CMC/ECMWF TIMING IS FAIRLY
SIMILAR...WITH THE FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO NC BY MIDDAY SUN.
MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED WITH THIS BOUNDARY...WITH SO WILL
MAINTAIN THE 20%/SLIGHT CHC POP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHS
SUNDAY RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S (AROUND 80 F SOUTH) AFTER
MORNING LOWS IN THE 50S. A MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO GENERALLY DRY AND MILD TO WARM
CONDITIONS. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 70S MONDAY LOOK TO
MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW-MID 80S TUE/WED. WITH A WEAK
SFC BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA AS THIS WARMING TREND OCCURS
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ON TUE THOUGH WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED AT
20%. NEXT COLD FRONT SLATED FOR LATE WED/THU...SO HAVE 20-30% CHC
POPS BY WED AFTN (HIGHEST NW).

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SITUATED ALONG THE CAROLINA AND OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COASTS EARLY THIS AFTN. LIGHT NE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT IS MAINTAINING IFR CIGS AT SBY/ORF/PHF. GRADUAL LIFTING
OF CIGS IS OCCURRING FARTHER INLAND IN VA AND OVER ERN NC...WITH
RIC/ECG LIFTING TO MVFR LEADING UP TO 18Z. SOME GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EWD THIS AFTN WITH PHF
FORECAST TO REACH MVFR. SBY/ORF ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IFR THROUGH
THE AFTN. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LOOSELY ORGANIZE
FROM ERN NC TO OFF THE NC COAST OVERNIGHT AS A POTENT UPPER LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE W. IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR ALL
TERMINALS TONIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VSBY FALLING TO 2-4SM
LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH AREAS OF RAIN DEVELOPING BY AFTN. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM SLIDES OFFSHORE...WITH A COLD FRONT
SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
OVER ERN CANADA...AND SFC LOW ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. THE SFC
LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF THE NC COAST AND MOVE NE ALONG THE
GULF STREAM THU...WITH A SECONDARY LOW HANGING BACK OVER VA/NC
THROUGH FRI (THIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL PARK
ITSELF OVER THE REGION). RAISING SCA HEADLINES ACRS THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS PER LATEST OBS/TRENDS. GENLY A MARGINAL EVENT BUT
THE PROLONGED NE FLOW OF 15-20KT OVER THE NRN COASTAL WATERS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN 5 FT SEAS THROUGH AT LEAST THU NIGHT
(POSSIBLY CONTINUING FRI). ELSEWHERE ACRS THE MARINE AREA...WINDS
ARE CURRENTLY FROM THE NE AND ARE SLOWLY INCREASING BUT SPEEDS
GENLY LOOK TO STAY AT OR BELOW 15 KT THROUGH THE NEXT 2 DAYS. SOME
OF THE HIGH RES MODEL DATA SHOWS THERE COULD BE SOME MARGINAL
GUSTS TO 20 KT ON THU INTO THE BAY BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY SCA
ISSUANCES THERE FOR NOW. WAVES IN THE BAY SHOULD AVG 1-2 FT
TONIGHT AND 2-3 FT THU/THU NIGHT. SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
SOUTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND WILL AVG 3-4 FT. PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS AGAIN FRI/FRI NIGHT AND WIND DIRECTIONS MAY BE SOMEWHAT
CHAOTIC DEPENDING ON EXACT LOCATION OF THE SFC LOW (SPEEDS MAINLY
5-10 KT). THIS SECOND LOW THEN MOVES OFFSHORE SAT/SAT NIGHT WITH A
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE WATERS ON SUNDAY. NOT MUCH COLD AIR BEHIND
THIS FRONT SO DOUBT SCA CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH SEAS TO AVG
2-4 FT AND 1-2 FT WAVES IN THE BAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RISING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ALONG WITH CONTINUED NE FLOW IS LEADING
TO TIDAL DEPARTURES CURRENTLY AVERAGING AROUND 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL.
APPEARS MOST AREAS WILL FALL JUST SHY OF MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS
WITH THE UPCOMING EVENING HIGH TIDE BUT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT
AT LEAST A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY OVER
MUCH OF THE LOWER BAY/SRN COASTAL WATERS. ANOMALIES ARE LIKELY TO
INCREASE A BIT THU...AND WILL PROBABLY NEED A CSTL FLOOD ADSY BY
THU EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...LKB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 041951
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
351 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN TO THE WEST. ALTHOUGH THERE IS VERY
LIMITED CAPE...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH A LOW
FREEZING LEVEL WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED LIGHTNING AND PEA-SIZED
HAIL OUT OF SOME OF THE LOW-TOPPED CELLS. THERE IS NO RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTH AND THE
FORECAST AREA SITS UNDER THE DEFORMATION ZONE. THURSDAY WILL SEE
CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER SLOWLY MOVES
EAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE H5 CLOSED LOW MENTIONED ABOVE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRI NIGHT...WITH VORTICITY LOBES
CIRCUMNAVIGATING THE SYSTEM. THESE WAVES WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS IN
THE SERN ZONES AND ESPECIALLY IN THE RIDGES ON THU NIGHT...WHERE
MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.

BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON SATURDAY WILL HELP DIVERT THE UPPER
LOW AND BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION FOR SAT AFTERNOON. A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL SHUNT THE UPPER RIDGE SEWD...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CONSEQUENTLY INCREASING SAT NIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PRECIPITATION SAT NIGHT WILL EXIT QUICKLY BY SUN MORNING IN THE
WAKE OF THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH LITTLE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON SUN...THE REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE
NRN SIDE OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THUS...MAXIMA WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY-BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW-MID 60S.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAD BEEN LOCATED IN THE SWRN
CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL EJECT SLOWLY INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE
OVER THE ERN CONUS AND ATTENDANT INCREASE IN WARM AIR BEGINNING ON
MON. NEAR-CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS WERE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST DURING
THIS TIME AS THE FCST AREA WILL RESIDE IN THE MOIST WARM SECTOR.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS TIMING DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MEDIUM-RANGE
MODELS...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE
WED/THU AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE
REGION. GIVEN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES...THIS COMBINATION OF
FEATURES WARRANTS GENERAL HEIGHTENED POPS AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER DURING ITS TENURE IN THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNTIL CONDITIONS DETERIORATE THROUGH
THE EVENING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION.
MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR WILL THEN BE LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THU/FRI WITH PERSISTENT LOW
PRESSURE...AND AGAIN WITH A COLD FRONT ON SAT NIGHT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

MK/KRAMAR




000
FXUS61 KPHI 041944
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
344 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE TONIGHT. DUEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE SLOW TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE LATER HALF OF THIS WEEK. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO LINGER JUST OFFSHORE INTO THE WEEKEND.
BY SUNDAY, A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WELCOMED HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OVER OUR
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. IT HELPED TO DEVELOP THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THAT PASSED ACROSS OUR COASTAL PLAIN. THE
AREA OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE NORTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY
600 PM.

LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN AT MID AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND
IT IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE COASTAL LOW LATE TONIGHT.

THE SURFACE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST FLOW
IN OUR REGION. AS A RESULT, WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY DRIZZLE TONIGHT ALONG WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL FAVOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A PRIMARY SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE
WATERS OFF NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, A LINGERING AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. AS A
RESULT, WE WILL EXPERIENCE ANOTHER DAY OF NORTHEASTERLY WIND ALONG
WITH LOW CLOUDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: DUAL LOW PRESSURES WILL CONTINUE
THE GRAY AND DREARY PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION IN THIS TIMEFRAME. THE
FIRST AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BE DEPARTING TO THE NORTHEAST
OFF CAPE COD WITH THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CAROLINAS.
THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PROVIDE LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH
ONSHORE FLOW LEADING TO ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES CURRENTLY ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ON FRIDAY WHEN THE TRAILING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LOCATED JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST. RIGHT NOW
MODELING IS FOCUSING THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY. QPF COULD REACH HALF AN
INCH BY FRIDAY NIGHT IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. WITH THE
EXCESSIVE CLOUDCOVER IN PLACE WENT A LITTLE COOLER IN THE DAYS
WITH HIGHS THAN WHAT MET/MAV GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST AND WARMER AT
NIGHT,HIGHS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE 50`S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

THERE IS SOME OPTIMISM THAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD BE
DRIER THAN INDICATED IN THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE PACKAGES. HOWEVER, AN
EQUAL POSSIBILITY IS PRESENT THAT THE SECOND LOW WILL LINGER
OFFSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES WARMER AT NIGHT AND COOLER IN THE DAY THAN WHAT VARIOUS
GUIDANCE PACKAGES INDICATE. TEMPERATURES WILL START A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY BE THE ULTIMATE KICKER FOR THE STUBBORN LOW PRESSURE JUST
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR YET ADDITIONAL SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH SOME
CLEARING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
ARRIVES.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ON MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW DRY DAYS AND A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY. THE
CHALLENGE IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE A WARM FRONT DIVIDING A COOLER
MORE MARINE AIRMASS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SENDING MORE SUMMERLIKE
TEMPERATURES INTO OUR REGION. RIGHT NOW THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF
THIS WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK IS STILL UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER, IT DOES
LOOK LIKE THE FRONT MAKES IT NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WOULD
POTENTIALLY RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80`S BY WEDNESDAY.
FOR NOW, HAVE TEMPERED THIS CHANGE IN MODELING KEEPING SOME
CONTINUITY GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
MOVE TOWARD OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
OVERLAP OF INSTABILITY AND OVER 30 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR,
BUT IT`S TO EARLY TO ACCESS THE DEGREE OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY
COAST AT MID AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST.

CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO FAVOR THE 1000 TO 1500 FOOT RANGE AT OUR
TAF SITES THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 400 TO 800 FOOT RANGE FOR TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CAUSE THE CLOUD BASES TO
RISE BACK AROUND 1000 TO 1500 FEET FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
VISIBILITY VALUES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY ABOVE 5 MILES. HOWEVER,
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE FROM TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE THE VISIBILITY TO 5 MILES OR LESS IN
SPOTS.

THE WIND SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE NORTHEAST AT 6 TO 12 KNOTS.
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM AROUND KPHL EAST AND SOUTHWARD
ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: FREQUENT MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VSBYS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. EASTERLY WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

MONDAY: VFR, WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN A
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON OUR COASTAL WATERS FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FEET AND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE OUR WATERS OFF DELAWARE.

OUTLOOK...

AN SCA IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL REMAIN
AT OR JUST OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH SATURDAY. SEAS WILL DECREASE FOR
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A PERIOD OF EASTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND
20 KNOTS IS LIKELY FRIDAY ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF NORTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE TIDAL SURGE RANGED FROM +0.7 TO +1.0 FOOT ALONG THE NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE COAST DURING THIS MORNING`S HIGH TIDE. THE PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE TIDAL SURGE TO BE AROUND +1.0
TO +1.3 FEET FOR THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE. THOSE VALUES ALONG WITH
THE INCREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AS WE APPROACH FRIDAY`S NEW MOON
SHOULD RESULT IN MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE COASTS THIS EVENING. THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT.

MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY TO EXTEND INTO THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT CYCLES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ012>014-020>027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/IOVINO
MARINE...GAINES/IOVINO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 041939
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
339 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE TONIGHT. DUEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE SLOW TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE LATER HALF OF THIS WEEK. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO LINGER JUST OFFSHORE INTO THE WEEKEND.
BY SUNDAY, A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WELCOMED HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OVER OUR
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. IT HELPED TO DEVELOP THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THAT PASSED ACROSS OUR COASTAL PLAIN. THE
AREA OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE NORTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY
600 PM.

LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN AT MID AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND
IT IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE COASTAL LOW LATE TONIGHT.

THE SURFACE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST FLOW
IN OUR REGION. AS A RESULT, WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY DRIZZLE TONIGHT ALONG WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL FAVOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

A PRIMARY SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE
WATERS OFF NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, A LINGERING AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. AS A
RESULT, WE WILL EXPERIENCE ANOTHER DAY OF NORTHEASTERLY WIND ALONG
WITH LOW CLOUDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: DUAL LOW PRESSURES WILL CONTINUE
THE GRAY AND DREARY PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION IN THIS TIMEFRAME. THE
FIRST AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BE DEPARTING TO THE NORTHEAST
OFF CAPE COD WITH THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CAROLINAS.
THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PROVIDE LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH
ONSHORE FLOW LEADING TO ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES CURRENTLY ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ON FRIDAY WHEN THE TRAILING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LOCATED JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST. RIGHT NOW
MODELING IS FOCUSING THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY. QPF COULD REACH HALF AN
INCH BY FRIDAY NIGHT IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. WITH THE
EXCESSIVE CLOUDCOVER IN PLACE WENT A LITTLE COOLER IN THE DAYS
WITH HIGHS THAN WHAT MET/MAV GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST AND WARMER AT
NIGHT,HIGHS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE 50`S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

THERE IS SOME OPTIMISM THAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD BE
DRIER THAN INDICATED IN THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE PACKAGES. HOWEVER, AN
EQUAL POSSIBILITY IS PRESENT THAT THE SECOND LOW WILL LINGER
OFFSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES WARMER AT NIGHT AND COOLER IN THE DAY THAN WHAT VARIOUS
GUIDANCE PACKAGES INDICATE. TEMPERATURES WILL START A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY BE THE ULTIMATE KICKER FOR THE STUBBORN LOW PRESSURE JUST
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR YET ADDITIONAL SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH SOME
CLEARING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
ARRIVES.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ON MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW DRY DAYS AND A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY. THE
CHALLENGE IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE A WARM FRONT DIVIDING A COOLER
MORE MARINE AIRMASS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SENDING MORE SUMMERLIKE
TEMPERATURES INTO OUR REGION. RIGHT NOW THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF
THIS WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK IS STILL UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER, IT DOES
LOOK LIKE THE FRONT MAKES IT NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WOULD
POTENTIALLY RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80`S BY WEDNESDAY.
FOR NOW, HAVE TEMPERED THIS CHANGE IN MODELING KEEPING SOME
CONTINUITY GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
MOVE TOWARD OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
OVERLAP OF INSTABILITY AND OVER 30 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR,
BUT IT`S TO EARLY TO ACCESS THE DEGREE OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY
COAST AT MID AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST.

CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO FAVOR THE 1000 TO 1500 FOOT RANGE AT OUR
TAF SITES THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 400 TO 800 FOOT RANGE FOR TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CAUSE THE CLOUD BASES TO
RISE BACK AROUND 1000 TO 1500 FEET FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
VISIBILITY VALUES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY ABOVE 5 MILES. HOWEVER,
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE FROM TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE THE VISIBILITY TO 5 MILES OR LESS IN
SPOTS.

THE WIND SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE NORTHEAST AT 6 TO 12 KNOTS.
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM AROUND KPHL EAST AND SOUTHWARD
ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: FREQUENT MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VSBYS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. EASTERLY WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

MONDAY: VFR, WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN A
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON OUR COASTAL WATERS FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FEET AND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE OUR WATERS OFF DELAWARE.

OUTLOOK...

LOW PRESSURE ALONG AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN A
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON OUR COASTAL WATERS FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FEET AND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE OUR WATERS OFF DELAWARE.

WIND CONDITIONS ON DELAWARE BAY SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERION. HOWEVER, THEY WILL BE QUITE CLOSE ON LOWER
DELAWARE BAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT AREA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

THE TIDAL SURGE RANGED FROM +0.7 TO +1.0 FOOT ALONG THE NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE COAST DURING THIS MORNING`S HIGH TIDE. THE PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE TIDAL SURGE TO BE AROUND +1.0
TO +1.3 FEET FOR THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE. THOSE VALUES ALONG WITH
THE INCREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AS WE APPROACH FRIDAY`S NEW MOON
SHOULD RESULT IN MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE COASTS THIS EVENING. THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT.

MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY TO EXTEND INTO THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT CYCLES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ012>014-020>027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/IOVINO
MARINE...GAINES/IOVINO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...GAINES/IOVINO




000
FXUS61 KPHI 041939
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
339 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE TONIGHT. DUEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE SLOW TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE LATER HALF OF THIS WEEK. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO LINGER JUST OFFSHORE INTO THE WEEKEND.
BY SUNDAY, A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WELCOMED HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OVER OUR
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. IT HELPED TO DEVELOP THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THAT PASSED ACROSS OUR COASTAL PLAIN. THE
AREA OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE NORTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY
600 PM.

LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN AT MID AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND
IT IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE COASTAL LOW LATE TONIGHT.

THE SURFACE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST FLOW
IN OUR REGION. AS A RESULT, WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY DRIZZLE TONIGHT ALONG WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL FAVOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

A PRIMARY SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE
WATERS OFF NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, A LINGERING AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. AS A
RESULT, WE WILL EXPERIENCE ANOTHER DAY OF NORTHEASTERLY WIND ALONG
WITH LOW CLOUDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: DUAL LOW PRESSURES WILL CONTINUE
THE GRAY AND DREARY PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION IN THIS TIMEFRAME. THE
FIRST AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BE DEPARTING TO THE NORTHEAST
OFF CAPE COD WITH THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CAROLINAS.
THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PROVIDE LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH
ONSHORE FLOW LEADING TO ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES CURRENTLY ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ON FRIDAY WHEN THE TRAILING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LOCATED JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST. RIGHT NOW
MODELING IS FOCUSING THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY. QPF COULD REACH HALF AN
INCH BY FRIDAY NIGHT IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. WITH THE
EXCESSIVE CLOUDCOVER IN PLACE WENT A LITTLE COOLER IN THE DAYS
WITH HIGHS THAN WHAT MET/MAV GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST AND WARMER AT
NIGHT,HIGHS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE 50`S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

THERE IS SOME OPTIMISM THAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD BE
DRIER THAN INDICATED IN THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE PACKAGES. HOWEVER, AN
EQUAL POSSIBILITY IS PRESENT THAT THE SECOND LOW WILL LINGER
OFFSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES WARMER AT NIGHT AND COOLER IN THE DAY THAN WHAT VARIOUS
GUIDANCE PACKAGES INDICATE. TEMPERATURES WILL START A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY BE THE ULTIMATE KICKER FOR THE STUBBORN LOW PRESSURE JUST
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR YET ADDITIONAL SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH SOME
CLEARING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
ARRIVES.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ON MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW DRY DAYS AND A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY. THE
CHALLENGE IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE A WARM FRONT DIVIDING A COOLER
MORE MARINE AIRMASS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SENDING MORE SUMMERLIKE
TEMPERATURES INTO OUR REGION. RIGHT NOW THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF
THIS WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK IS STILL UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER, IT DOES
LOOK LIKE THE FRONT MAKES IT NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WOULD
POTENTIALLY RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80`S BY WEDNESDAY.
FOR NOW, HAVE TEMPERED THIS CHANGE IN MODELING KEEPING SOME
CONTINUITY GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
MOVE TOWARD OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
OVERLAP OF INSTABILITY AND OVER 30 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR,
BUT IT`S TO EARLY TO ACCESS THE DEGREE OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY
COAST AT MID AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST.

CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO FAVOR THE 1000 TO 1500 FOOT RANGE AT OUR
TAF SITES THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 400 TO 800 FOOT RANGE FOR TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CAUSE THE CLOUD BASES TO
RISE BACK AROUND 1000 TO 1500 FEET FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
VISIBILITY VALUES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY ABOVE 5 MILES. HOWEVER,
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE FROM TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE THE VISIBILITY TO 5 MILES OR LESS IN
SPOTS.

THE WIND SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE NORTHEAST AT 6 TO 12 KNOTS.
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM AROUND KPHL EAST AND SOUTHWARD
ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: FREQUENT MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VSBYS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. EASTERLY WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

MONDAY: VFR, WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN A
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON OUR COASTAL WATERS FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FEET AND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE OUR WATERS OFF DELAWARE.

OUTLOOK...

LOW PRESSURE ALONG AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN A
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON OUR COASTAL WATERS FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FEET AND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE OUR WATERS OFF DELAWARE.

WIND CONDITIONS ON DELAWARE BAY SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERION. HOWEVER, THEY WILL BE QUITE CLOSE ON LOWER
DELAWARE BAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT AREA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

THE TIDAL SURGE RANGED FROM +0.7 TO +1.0 FOOT ALONG THE NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE COAST DURING THIS MORNING`S HIGH TIDE. THE PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE TIDAL SURGE TO BE AROUND +1.0
TO +1.3 FEET FOR THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE. THOSE VALUES ALONG WITH
THE INCREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AS WE APPROACH FRIDAY`S NEW MOON
SHOULD RESULT IN MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE COASTS THIS EVENING. THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT.

MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY TO EXTEND INTO THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT CYCLES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ012>014-020>027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/IOVINO
MARINE...GAINES/IOVINO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...GAINES/IOVINO




000
FXUS61 KLWX 041903
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
303 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE TROF WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY EVENING.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN WILL DIG TOWARD THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT AND SRN
MID ATLC STATES BY THU AFTERNOON. AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL THIS
EVENING AND SFC CONVERGENCE INCREASES...RAIN WILL BECOME MORE
PERSISTENT AND ORGANIZED ESPECIALLY OVER AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE MTNS. THE LATEST GFS SHOWS A SFC CONVERGENCE ZONE
ESTABLISHING FROM PETERSBURG WV SOUTHEAST TO CHARLOTTESVILLE
ESTABLISHING TONIGHT AND REMAINING STATIONARY THROUGH ALL DAY
THURSDAY. GFS RAINFALL TOTALS SEEM OVERDONE WHEN COMPARED TO
ECMWF AND WPC GUIDANCE. 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN APPEAR POSSIBLE IN THAT
AREA. SINCE THIS APPEARS TO BE A PROLONGED AND SLOW EVENT...FLASH
FLOODING IS NOT A THREAT BUT RISES ON SOME AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS
CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...UPPER LOW
SHIFTS SOUTHWARD THU NIGHT WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING SFC CONVERGENCE
ZONE SHIFTING MORE EASTWARD TOWARD DC/BALT METRO AREAS FOCUSING
SHOWERS MORE IN THAT AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...UPR LEVEL LOW WILL LINGER AROUND
THROUGH THE DAY SAT... KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AND PARTLY
CLOUDY... MAINLY IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA. SOME CLEARING PSBL
AS UPR LOW MOVES AWAY... BUT CLOUDS QUICKLY RETURN SAT NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUN AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS TO OUR SOUTH AS A WEAK HIGH PRESS BUILDS
NEAR OUR REGION SUN INTO LATE MON. FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY LIFTS
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUE INTO WED BRINGING BACK SHOWERS TO OUR
REGION.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE GRADUALLY INCREASING FROM THE LOW 70S INTO THE
UPR 70S DURING THIS PERIOD... LOW TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...
40S SUN NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT INTO EARLY SUN AS UPR LEVEL LOW
AND COLD FRONT BRING SHOWERS INTO OUR REGION. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED LATER ON SUN AND INTO MON AS HIGH PRESS BUILDS IN.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT AND MON AS WINDS WILL BE BELOW THE
SCA CRITERIA. SCA CONDITIONS PSBL ON SUN WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ONSHORE FLOW HAS RESULTED ON ELEVATED
WATER LEVELS. PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW NEXT FEW DAYS WILL RESULT IN
WATER LEVELS RISING WITH MINOR COASTAL FLOODING LIKELY AT MANY
COASTAL LOCATIONS ALONG THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND POTOMAC RIVER.
MODERATE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AT STRAITS POINT AND ANNAPOLIS IF
THE HIGHER ESTOFS SURGE VERIFIES. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY
NEED TO BE ISSUED LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...IMR/LFR
MARINE...IMR/LFR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LFR




000
FXUS61 KLWX 041903
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
303 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE TROF WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY EVENING.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN WILL DIG TOWARD THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT AND SRN
MID ATLC STATES BY THU AFTERNOON. AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL THIS
EVENING AND SFC CONVERGENCE INCREASES...RAIN WILL BECOME MORE
PERSISTENT AND ORGANIZED ESPECIALLY OVER AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE MTNS. THE LATEST GFS SHOWS A SFC CONVERGENCE ZONE
ESTABLISHING FROM PETERSBURG WV SOUTHEAST TO CHARLOTTESVILLE
ESTABLISHING TONIGHT AND REMAINING STATIONARY THROUGH ALL DAY
THURSDAY. GFS RAINFALL TOTALS SEEM OVERDONE WHEN COMPARED TO
ECMWF AND WPC GUIDANCE. 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN APPEAR POSSIBLE IN THAT
AREA. SINCE THIS APPEARS TO BE A PROLONGED AND SLOW EVENT...FLASH
FLOODING IS NOT A THREAT BUT RISES ON SOME AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS
CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...UPPER LOW
SHIFTS SOUTHWARD THU NIGHT WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING SFC CONVERGENCE
ZONE SHIFTING MORE EASTWARD TOWARD DC/BALT METRO AREAS FOCUSING
SHOWERS MORE IN THAT AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...UPR LEVEL LOW WILL LINGER AROUND
THROUGH THE DAY SAT... KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AND PARTLY
CLOUDY... MAINLY IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA. SOME CLEARING PSBL
AS UPR LOW MOVES AWAY... BUT CLOUDS QUICKLY RETURN SAT NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUN AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS TO OUR SOUTH AS A WEAK HIGH PRESS BUILDS
NEAR OUR REGION SUN INTO LATE MON. FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY LIFTS
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUE INTO WED BRINGING BACK SHOWERS TO OUR
REGION.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE GRADUALLY INCREASING FROM THE LOW 70S INTO THE
UPR 70S DURING THIS PERIOD... LOW TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...
40S SUN NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT INTO EARLY SUN AS UPR LEVEL LOW
AND COLD FRONT BRING SHOWERS INTO OUR REGION. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED LATER ON SUN AND INTO MON AS HIGH PRESS BUILDS IN.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT AND MON AS WINDS WILL BE BELOW THE
SCA CRITERIA. SCA CONDITIONS PSBL ON SUN WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ONSHORE FLOW HAS RESULTED ON ELEVATED
WATER LEVELS. PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW NEXT FEW DAYS WILL RESULT IN
WATER LEVELS RISING WITH MINOR COASTAL FLOODING LIKELY AT MANY
COASTAL LOCATIONS ALONG THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND POTOMAC RIVER.
MODERATE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AT STRAITS POINT AND ANNAPOLIS IF
THE HIGHER ESTOFS SURGE VERIFIES. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY
NEED TO BE ISSUED LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...IMR/LFR
MARINE...IMR/LFR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LFR




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 041850
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
250 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. MAINLY DRY FRIDAY BEFORE SHOWER CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN TO THE WEST. ALTHOUGH THERE IS VERY
LIMITED CAPE...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH A LOW
FREEZING LEVEL WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED LIGHTNING AND PEA-SIZED
HAIL OUT OF SOME OF THE LOW-TOPPED CELLS. THERE IS NO RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE UPPER LOW LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTH AND
THE FORECAST AREA SITS UNDER THE DEFORMATION ZONE. THURSDAY WILL
SEE CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER SLOWLY
MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COOL MID LEVEL CLOSED SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND CLOSED
LOW COMBINED WITH COLD POOL ALOFT WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY LOW MAY BECOME BECOME
MORE ELONGATED NEAR THE COAST...ALTHOUGH NEWEST LONGER RANGE
MODELS DISAGREE ON PLACEMENT AND SPEED OF LOW LIFTING OUT. HAVE
KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS INTO THE RIDGES FRIDAY WITH A DRYING TREND
ELSEWHERE. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT TO SHUNT LOW TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING BACK SHOWER CHANCES SATURDAY
WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT PUSHING TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPR TROF AND SFC BOUNDARY PASSAGE IS PROGGED ERLY IN THE PERIOD
WITH THE BEST CHCS FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...BUILDING RIDGING
SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER UNTIL AN APPROACHING UPR TROF
ADVANCES OUT OF THE MID WEST BY MID WEEK. TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL LVLS
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE AVG BY MID WEEK. THE SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE...WITH DOWNWARD MID WEEK POP ADJUSTMENT...WAS USED FOR
THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNTIL CONDITIONS DETERIORATE THROUGH
THE EVENING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION.
MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR WILL THEN BE LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THU/FRI WITH PERSISTENT LOW
PRESSURE...AND AGAIN WITH A SAT NGT COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 041850
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
250 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. MAINLY DRY FRIDAY BEFORE SHOWER CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN TO THE WEST. ALTHOUGH THERE IS VERY
LIMITED CAPE...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH A LOW
FREEZING LEVEL WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED LIGHTNING AND PEA-SIZED
HAIL OUT OF SOME OF THE LOW-TOPPED CELLS. THERE IS NO RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE UPPER LOW LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTH AND
THE FORECAST AREA SITS UNDER THE DEFORMATION ZONE. THURSDAY WILL
SEE CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER SLOWLY
MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COOL MID LEVEL CLOSED SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND CLOSED
LOW COMBINED WITH COLD POOL ALOFT WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY LOW MAY BECOME BECOME
MORE ELONGATED NEAR THE COAST...ALTHOUGH NEWEST LONGER RANGE
MODELS DISAGREE ON PLACEMENT AND SPEED OF LOW LIFTING OUT. HAVE
KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS INTO THE RIDGES FRIDAY WITH A DRYING TREND
ELSEWHERE. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT TO SHUNT LOW TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING BACK SHOWER CHANCES SATURDAY
WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT PUSHING TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPR TROF AND SFC BOUNDARY PASSAGE IS PROGGED ERLY IN THE PERIOD
WITH THE BEST CHCS FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...BUILDING RIDGING
SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER UNTIL AN APPROACHING UPR TROF
ADVANCES OUT OF THE MID WEST BY MID WEEK. TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL LVLS
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE AVG BY MID WEEK. THE SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE...WITH DOWNWARD MID WEEK POP ADJUSTMENT...WAS USED FOR
THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNTIL CONDITIONS DETERIORATE THROUGH
THE EVENING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION.
MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR WILL THEN BE LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THU/FRI WITH PERSISTENT LOW
PRESSURE...AND AGAIN WITH A SAT NGT COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 041805
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
205 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH TODAY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER AIR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BE DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THAT UPPER LOW WILL
TRACK INTO NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN BE SLOW TO
EXIT THE MID ATLANTIC REGION INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FRONTAL BNDRY WILL REMAIN JUST OFF THE CST THRU TNGT. EXPECTING
VRBL CLOUDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THE REST OF TODAY. FA WILL
BE SITUATED BETWEEN BNDRY JUST OFF THE CST AND STRONG UPR LVL LO
PRES DIVING SSE FM THE WRN GRT LKS INTO THE OH VALLEY. WILL
MAINTAIN MAINLY 20-40% POPS INTO EARLY THIS EVENG...INCLUDING
A SLGT CHC OF TSTMS. HIGHEST CHCS WILL BE OVR NW AND NRN COUNTIES
WHERE DEEPER LO LVL MOISTURE/BEST FORCING WILL BE. HI TEMPS WILL
RANGE FM THE LWR TO MID 60S ON THE ERN SHORE...TO THE UPR 60S TO
LWR 70S ELSEWHERE IN CNTRL/ERN VA...AND LWR TO MID 70S IN NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNSETTLED WX WILL CONT ACRS THE FA TNGT THRU FRI...AS THE UPR LVL
LO PRES TRACKS SE INTO NC (THU) THEN SITS INVOF ERN VA (FRI).
CONTD VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS THROUGH THE PD...ALG W/ BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY OR HIGHER INLAND DURING THU
AS THE LO MOVES INTO NC. NR THE CST...WILL HAVE POPS MNLY 20-40%.
WILL HAVE MNLY 40-60% POPS THU NGT/FRI. LO TEMPS TNGT IN THE
L-M50S. HI TEMPS WED WILL RANGE FM 60-70F. LO TEMPS LOWS THU NGT
WILL BE IN THE U40S TO L50S. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L-M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. POPS RANGE FROM ~20% SW TO 30% NNE FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY...FOLLOWED BY PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH POPS 20% W...30-40% E. FORECAST LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S OVER THE ERN SHORE...TO THE LOW 70S
FOR INLAND VA/NE NC. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N SATURDAY
NIGHT AND CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY. GFS/CMC REMAIN SLIGHTLY FASTER
THAN THE ECMWF...BUT THE OVERALL CONSENSUS IS FOR A SUNDAY FRONTAL
PASSAGE. MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED WITH THIS BOUNDARY...WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHC POP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHS SUNDAY RISE INTO
THE MID/UPPER 70S AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE 50S. A MID/UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO GENERALLY
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS...WITH CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S MONDAY AND MODERATING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE W LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SITUATED ALONG THE CAROLINA AND OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COASTS EARLY THIS AFTN. LIGHT NE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT IS MAINTAINING IFR CIGS AT SBY/ORF/PHF. GRADUAL LIFTING
OF CIGS IS OCCURRING FARTHER INLAND IN VA AND OVER ERN NC...WITH
RIC/ECG LIFTING TO MVFR LEADING UP TO 18Z. SOME GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EWD THIS AFTN WITH PHF
FORECAST TO REACH MVFR. SBY/ORF ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IFR THROUGH
THE AFTN. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LOOSELY ORGANIZE
FROM ERN NC TO OFF THE NC COAST OVERNIGHT AS A POTENT UPPER LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE W. IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR ALL
TERMINALS TONIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VSBY FALLING TO 2-4SM
LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH AREAS OF RAIN DEVELOPING BY AFTN. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM SLIDES OFFSHORE...WITH A COLD FRONT
SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG/OFF THE COAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT
AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES OVER NE NC. ANOTHER LOW THEN DEVELOPS IN
VICINITY OF THE COAST THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE AREA. THE WIND REMAINS AOB 15KT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WITH THE DIRECTION AVERAGING NE THEN N ACROSS THE NRN PORTION
OF THE MARINE AREA...TO W AND NW BECOMING NE ON THU ACROSS THE SRN
PORTION OF THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WITH NW FLOW AOB 15KT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS
SUNDAY. SEAS AVERAGE 2-4 THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 1-2 FT WAVES IN THE
BAY...TO 2-3 FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RISING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ALONG WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CREATE POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STARTING
WITH THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY.
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY BY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...JDM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 041805
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
205 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH TODAY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER AIR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BE DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THAT UPPER LOW WILL
TRACK INTO NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN BE SLOW TO
EXIT THE MID ATLANTIC REGION INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FRONTAL BNDRY WILL REMAIN JUST OFF THE CST THRU TNGT. EXPECTING
VRBL CLOUDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THE REST OF TODAY. FA WILL
BE SITUATED BETWEEN BNDRY JUST OFF THE CST AND STRONG UPR LVL LO
PRES DIVING SSE FM THE WRN GRT LKS INTO THE OH VALLEY. WILL
MAINTAIN MAINLY 20-40% POPS INTO EARLY THIS EVENG...INCLUDING
A SLGT CHC OF TSTMS. HIGHEST CHCS WILL BE OVR NW AND NRN COUNTIES
WHERE DEEPER LO LVL MOISTURE/BEST FORCING WILL BE. HI TEMPS WILL
RANGE FM THE LWR TO MID 60S ON THE ERN SHORE...TO THE UPR 60S TO
LWR 70S ELSEWHERE IN CNTRL/ERN VA...AND LWR TO MID 70S IN NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNSETTLED WX WILL CONT ACRS THE FA TNGT THRU FRI...AS THE UPR LVL
LO PRES TRACKS SE INTO NC (THU) THEN SITS INVOF ERN VA (FRI).
CONTD VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS THROUGH THE PD...ALG W/ BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY OR HIGHER INLAND DURING THU
AS THE LO MOVES INTO NC. NR THE CST...WILL HAVE POPS MNLY 20-40%.
WILL HAVE MNLY 40-60% POPS THU NGT/FRI. LO TEMPS TNGT IN THE
L-M50S. HI TEMPS WED WILL RANGE FM 60-70F. LO TEMPS LOWS THU NGT
WILL BE IN THE U40S TO L50S. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L-M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. POPS RANGE FROM ~20% SW TO 30% NNE FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY...FOLLOWED BY PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH POPS 20% W...30-40% E. FORECAST LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S OVER THE ERN SHORE...TO THE LOW 70S
FOR INLAND VA/NE NC. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N SATURDAY
NIGHT AND CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY. GFS/CMC REMAIN SLIGHTLY FASTER
THAN THE ECMWF...BUT THE OVERALL CONSENSUS IS FOR A SUNDAY FRONTAL
PASSAGE. MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED WITH THIS BOUNDARY...WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHC POP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHS SUNDAY RISE INTO
THE MID/UPPER 70S AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE 50S. A MID/UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO GENERALLY
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS...WITH CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S MONDAY AND MODERATING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE W LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SITUATED ALONG THE CAROLINA AND OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COASTS EARLY THIS AFTN. LIGHT NE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT IS MAINTAINING IFR CIGS AT SBY/ORF/PHF. GRADUAL LIFTING
OF CIGS IS OCCURRING FARTHER INLAND IN VA AND OVER ERN NC...WITH
RIC/ECG LIFTING TO MVFR LEADING UP TO 18Z. SOME GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EWD THIS AFTN WITH PHF
FORECAST TO REACH MVFR. SBY/ORF ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IFR THROUGH
THE AFTN. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LOOSELY ORGANIZE
FROM ERN NC TO OFF THE NC COAST OVERNIGHT AS A POTENT UPPER LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE W. IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR ALL
TERMINALS TONIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VSBY FALLING TO 2-4SM
LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH AREAS OF RAIN DEVELOPING BY AFTN. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM SLIDES OFFSHORE...WITH A COLD FRONT
SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG/OFF THE COAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT
AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES OVER NE NC. ANOTHER LOW THEN DEVELOPS IN
VICINITY OF THE COAST THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE AREA. THE WIND REMAINS AOB 15KT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WITH THE DIRECTION AVERAGING NE THEN N ACROSS THE NRN PORTION
OF THE MARINE AREA...TO W AND NW BECOMING NE ON THU ACROSS THE SRN
PORTION OF THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WITH NW FLOW AOB 15KT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS
SUNDAY. SEAS AVERAGE 2-4 THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 1-2 FT WAVES IN THE
BAY...TO 2-3 FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RISING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ALONG WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CREATE POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STARTING
WITH THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY.
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY BY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...JDM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KPHI 041630
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1230 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONSOLIDATE OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND
THEN MOVES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH FOG IN THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN THE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER OUR
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE FEATURE HAS BEEN ENHANCING THE SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF
DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND THROUGH
OUR COASTAL COUNTIES UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE,
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL IMPACT OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
PWAT DRIES TO 0.75 INCHES AND INSTABILITY ALOFT DECREASES BUT A
CONTD MOIST CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH PROBABLY PERIODS OF
MEASURABLE DRIZZLE AND MAYBE A FEW POCKETS OF SHOWERS.

50 50 BLENDED 00Z/4 GFS NAM GUIDANCE. WE SEE THE SPC WRF DRIES US
OUT CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT SO POPS ARE GENERALLY 60 PCT N AND 30-40
PCT SOUTH. BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE MAY BE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

NE WIND GUSTY NEAR 15 MPH... EXPECT 20-25 MPH MONMOUTH COUNTY
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN OMEGA BLOCK, THEN THIS
PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN SOME DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW WEEKS AGO THERE
WAS AN OMEGA BLOCK IN PLACE, HOWEVER AT THAT TIME WE WERE UNDER
THE RIDGE. THIS GO AROUND WE ARE UNDER THE TROUGH PART OF THE
BLOCK, KEEPING OUR WEATHER COOLER AND UNSETTLED. THE REST OF THE
WEEK WILL THEREFORE BE UNSETTLED WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT DURING THE
WEEKEND, THEN A MORE NOTABLE IMPROVEMENT ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WE USED A MODEL BLEND APPROACH FOR THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY, THEN BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME
ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH
OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE OMEGA BLOCK CONTINUES WITH A STRONG
SHORT WAVE CLOSING OFF THE TROUGH AS IT TRACKS FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THURSDAY. SOME SHORT
WAVE ENERGY TRACKING NORTHWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LARGE
TROUGH WILL TEAM UP WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE A MARINE LAYER AND
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS. THURSDAY MORNING HOWEVER COULD ALSO START
WITH SOME DRIZZLE. THE ENTIRE TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW ARE FORECAST
TO BECOME CENTERED ALONG THE EAST COAST FRIDAY WITH THE CLOSED LOW
ITSELF MOVING OVER OUR CWA DURING FRIDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST NORTHWARD ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS TO
NOT DEEPEN CONSIDERABLY. AS THIS OCCURS, THE 500 MB TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO COOL TO NEAR -24C ON FRIDAY. THIS WOULD PROMOTE
SOME INSTABILITY AND PERHAPS SOME LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION, HOWEVER
CLOUD COVER AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS MAY TEMPER THIS POTENTIAL.

OTHERWISE, AN EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS FRIDAY ACROSS OUR
NORTHEASTERN ZONES THEN THIS PIVOTS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SOME GUIDANCE IS STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE WHICH ALSO
DRIVES A BAND OF STRONGER 700-800 MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING.
OVERALL, THERE LOOKS LIKE DECENT LIFT ON THE NOSE OF THE EASTERLY
JET TO PROMOTE AN AREA OF SHOWERS/RAIN THAT PIVOTS INLAND DURING
FRIDAY. WE MAY NOT SEE ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, BUT IF THERE ARE
THEN ANY LOW- TOPPED CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL GIVEN THE
VERY COLD 500 MB TEMPERATURES. AS OF NOW HOWEVER, ANY INSTABILITY
LOOKS MEAGER. THE SYSTEM THEM MEANDERS OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND WHILE THERE SHOULD BE A DECREASE IN THE SHOWER COVERAGE SOME
SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL SLOWING TREND
IN THE GUIDANCE WHEN COMPARING THE MANY MODELS AND ENSEMBLES. THIS
TENDS TO HAPPEN WITH BLOCKING PATTERNS AS IT TAKES LONGER FOR THE
CLOSED LOW TO OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT. THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES AT THE SURFACE ON SATURDAY WHICH LEADS TO PLENTY OF
DETAIL UNCERTAINTIES INCLUDING THE AMOUNT OF RAIN. WE THEREFORE
LEANED CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE BUT ALSO INCORPORATING SOME
CONTINUITY. THIS MEANS THAT SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE STILL UNSETTLED
WITH SOME SHOWERS STILL HANGING AROUND. THE AMOUNT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL DEPEND ON THE SHORT WAVE FORCING AROUND THE CLOSED
LOW, HOWEVER PLENTY OF COLD AIR REMAINS ALOFT WHICH WILL HELP WITH
SOME INSTABILITY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD OPEN UP AND START SHIFTING
EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPSTREAM ENERGY IN THE FORM OF A TROUGH
SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS DRIVES A COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA MOSTLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH PERHAPS SOME
SHOWERS. THE AIR ALOFT MODIFIES SOME THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
THEREFORE MODERATING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESULT ESPECIALLY
ON SUNDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WE TRANSITION OUT OF AN OMEGA BLOCK
DURING THIS TIME FRAME, RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES. SOME
GUIDANCE HOWEVER HAS A SHORT WAVE AMPLIFYING A TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST TUESDAY AS A RIDGE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IT APPEARS THAT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
WITH TIME, HOWEVER ENERGY IN THE PLAINS WILL SEND A DEVELOPING
WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH TOWARD OUR AREA TUESDAY. WE KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY ATTM WITH MUCH WARMER AIR BUILDING INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...GENERALLY HIGH END IFR/LOW END MVFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2-5
MI IN SHOWERS. TIMING OF MOST OF THE RAIN THRU MID AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED THUNDER AROUND KACY. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 12
KNOTS.

TONIGHT...GENERALLY IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2-5 MI IN SCT SHOWERS
DIMINISHING OR ENDING-EXITING NEWD EARLY/PATCHY DRIZZLE-FOG IN THE
WAKE OF THE NEWD SHOWER DEPARTURE. POSSIBLE LIFR CIGS. NE WIND G
15-20 KT POSSIBLE KPHL- KTTN- KACY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS PERSIST WITH AN ONSHORE
FLOW AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST. TIMES OF SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED AS WELL WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY OCCURRING ON
FRIDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE /LESS AT
NIGHT/ WITH THE HIGHER SPEEDS MAINLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE TO START
SATURDAY, THEN IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR. SOME SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AS ONE SYSTEM DEPARTS ON SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH MAINLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY THEN LIGHT SOUTHWEST AT NIGHT, BEFORE SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS DURING SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WITH WIND NNJ AND SCA SNJ.

DID NOT ATTM ADD SCA FOR DE COAST SINCE 44009 ON THE OUTER EDGE
OF 455 IS MARGINALLY 5 FT. HOWEVER, AM NOW ANTICIPATING WE`LL NEED
AN SCA IN THE DE ATLC WATERS FOR LATER TONIGHT.

SST`S ARE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE FOR
A TIME THURSDAY AS ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY. A
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES DURING FRIDAY WITH A
POSSIBLE 25-30 KNOT NORTHEASTERLY SURGE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF AN
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET THAT LIFTS NORTHWARD FRIDAY. THE SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO BE 4-6 FEET MOSTLY FOR THE NEW JERSEY ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS, AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH 22Z
THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AGAIN, AND SEAS MAY
BUILD TO 5 FEET FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEREFORE THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY MORNING WITH
THE WINDS TURNING SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF IT LATE SATURDAY THEN
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, HOWEVER IT APPEARS
THAT SPEEDS ARE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SEAS SHOULD ALSO BE
DROPPING BELOW 5 FEET WITH SOME HELP ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE FLOW
INCREASING FROM OFFSHORE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CF ADVISORY ISSUED. GUIDANCE SUGGESTIONS OF INCREASED POSITIVE
DEPARTURES COMBINED WITH INCREASING ASTRONOMICAL EVENING TIDES,
LOWERING PRESSURE AND AN INCREASING ONSHORE WIND FAVORED AN
ADVISORY ISSUANCE. IT WILL BE MARGINAL...PROBABLY PLUS OR MINUS .2
FT FROM THRESHOLD.

THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE RAN ABOUT 0.7 TO 1.0 ABV NORMAL. THAT
UPWARD DEPARTURE TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL CYCLES.

THE LONG DURATION NORTHEASTERLY FETCH COMBINED WITH A DAILY
INCREASE IN ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AS WE APPROACH THE NEW MOON FRIDAY
WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF MINOR EVENING COASTAL FLOODING.

ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE COULD/SHOULD BE SOME MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING,
THURSDAY EVENING, AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY EVENING.

FOR NOW, ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE NJ/DE COASTS AND
DELAWARE BAY FOR THIS EVENINGS HIGH TIDE.

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF REACHING A MODERATE THRESHOLD
FRIDAY EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR NJZ012>014-020>027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ452-453.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450-451.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KLWX 041444
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1044 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY EVENING. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL FALL STEADILY THROUGH THE DAY AS LONGWAVE
PATTERN AMPLIFIES AND A DEEP CLOSED LOW ALOFT FORMS OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT
AND SFC CONVERGENCE OVER THE MTNS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SPREAD EASTWARD
TONIGHT BUT BE MORE CONCENTRATED ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A CLOSED LOW SWINGS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN
STALLS AT LEAST INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A NOTABLY WET
STRETCH WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN. DESPITE IT HAVING ALREADY BEEN WET
RECENTLY...THERE IS A SPRING RAINFALL DEFICIT ACROSS THE AREA OF ONE
TO THREE INCHES. SO THIS SHOULD BE SEEN AS A BENEFICIAL STRETCH.

POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER IN THIS STRETCH. RAIN MAY BECOME
EXCESSIVE...PARTICULARLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPR LOW
OVER ERN KY TRANSFERS ENERGY TO A COASTAL LOW. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THIS LINE (GUIDANCE CONSENSUS CURRENTLY FEATURES THIS
CONVERGENCE ACROSS CNTRL VA) COULD ALLOW MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS FOR HOURS. THIS...WITH TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT
IN THE AREA COULD LEAD TO A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN AND
FLOODING. CURRENT SIX-HOUR FFG IS 1.5 TO 3 INCHES OVER SWRN ZONES. A
NOTE ABOUT THIS WILL BE ADDED TO THE HWO.

THE LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
PERSISTS FRIDAY. FOCUS OF RAIN SHIFTS ACROSS THE BALT-WASH METRO.
THIS LOOKS LESS INTENSE AS THE THURSDAY AREA WITH QPF AN INCH OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPR CUTOFF LOW OVR THE ERN U.S. WHICH WE`VE BEEN WRITING ABT
FOR THE PAST SVRL DAYS SEEMS TO BE EARNING THE TERM "OMNIPRESENT"
AS LATEST MDLS NOW KEEP IT OVR THE MID ATLC THRU SAT...KEEPING
THE 1ST HALF OF THE WKND A CLDY COOL RAINY CONTINUATION OF WHAT
THIS WK HAS BEEN AS A WHOLE. SUPERBLEND GIVING HIGHS IN THE LM70S
SAT - THIS MAY BE A STRETCH AND WL BE DEPENDENT ON WHETHER BRKS
DVLP IN THE AFTN CLDS...AND IF BRKS DO DVLP WL RW FORM AS A
RESULT OF THE HTG IN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT?

A CD FNT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE RGN SUNDAY/UPR LVL SHORT WV
DIVE INTO THE ERN GRT LKS. THIS TOO MAY LEAD TO A CHC OF RW/ISOLD
TRW.

IT LOOKS LK WE`LL FINALLY BE ABLE TO SAY "BON VOYAGE" TO THE UPR
LOW MON...AND THE UPR RIDGE WHICH WL HV BEEN OVR THE ROCKIES FOR
MULTIPLE DAYS. SUNNIER SKIES NEXT MON AND TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OFFSHORE
AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. INTERMITTENT
IFR/MVFR CONDS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN DEVELOPS THIS
MORNING WITH PERIODIC SHOWERS THEN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDER INVOF KCHO THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LWRD CIGS AGN PSBL SAT...THEN IMPRVG CONDS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST THIS
MORNING AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. SCA MAY
BE NECESSARY AS LOW DEVELOPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL SCA ALSO INTO THIS WEEKEND AS LOW MOVES
OUT.

NO PROBS XPCTD ON THE WATERS SAT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...ABW
AVIATION...LFR/ABW
MARINE...LFR/ABW




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 041428
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1028 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH TODAY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER AIR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BE DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THAT UPPER LOW WILL
TRACK INTO NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN BE SLOW TO
EXIT THE MID ATLANTIC REGION INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FRONTAL BNDRY WILL REMAIN JUST OFF THE CST THRU TNGT. EXPECTING
VRBL CLOUDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THE REST OF TODAY. FA WILL
BE SITUATED BETWEEN BNDRY JUST OFF THE CST AND STRONG UPR LVL LO
PRES DIVING SSE FM THE WRN GRT LKS INTO THE OH VALLEY. WILL
MAINTAIN MAINLY 20-40% POPS INTO EARLY THIS EVENG...INCLUDING
A SLGT CHC OF TSTMS. HIGHEST CHCS WILL BE OVR NW AND NRN COUNTIES
WHERE DEEPER LO LVL MOISTURE/BEST FORCING WILL BE. HI TEMPS WILL
RANGE FM THE LWR TO MID 60S ON THE ERN SHORE...TO THE UPR 60S TO
LWR 70S ELSEWHERE IN CNTRL/ERN VA...AND LWR TO MID 70S IN NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNSETTLED WX WILL CONT ACRS THE FA TNGT THRU FRI...AS THE UPR LVL
LO PRES TRACKS SE INTO NC (THU) THEN SITS INVOF ERN VA (FRI).
CONTD VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS THROUGH THE PD...ALG W/ BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY OR HIGHER INLAND DURING THU
AS THE LO MOVES INTO NC. NR THE CST...WILL HAVE POPS MNLY 20-40%.
WILL HAVE MNLY 40-60% POPS THU NGT/FRI. LO TEMPS TNGT IN THE
L-M50S. HI TEMPS WED WILL RANGE FM 60-70F. LO TEMPS LOWS THU NGT
WILL BE IN THE U40S TO L50S. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L-M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. POPS RANGE FROM ~20% SW TO 30% NNE FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY...FOLLOWED BY PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH POPS 20% W...30-40% E. FORECAST LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S OVER THE ERN SHORE...TO THE LOW 70S
FOR INLAND VA/NE NC. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N SATURDAY
NIGHT AND CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY. GFS/CMC REMAIN SLIGHTLY FASTER
THAN THE ECMWF...BUT THE OVERALL CONSENSUS IS FOR A SUNDAY FRONTAL
PASSAGE. MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED WITH THIS BOUNDARY...WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHC POP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHS SUNDAY RISE INTO
THE MID/UPPER 70S AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE 50S. A MID/UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO GENERALLY
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS...WITH CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S MONDAY AND MODERATING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE W LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS A DIFFUSE COLD
FRONT DISSIPATES ACROSS NE NC. ONLY A VERY SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN
CIGS IS EXPECTED INTO THE AFTN...AS MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LAST FOR
MOST OF TODAY. ANY PARTIAL CLEARING (VFR CONDS) LATE THIS AFTN/EVE
WILL BE BRIEF WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING IFR CONDS RETURNING
TONIGHT/EARLY THU.

OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LOW SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH PERIODS OF IFR. THE WEEKEND IS A
TOSS UP ATTM AS TO WHETHER OR NOT IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
REALIZED.

&&

.MARINE...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG/OFF THE COAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT
AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES OVER NE NC. ANOTHER LOW THEN DEVELOPS IN
VICINITY OF THE COAST THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE AREA. THE WIND REMAINS AOB 15KT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WITH THE DIRECTION AVERAGING NE THEN N ACROSS THE NRN PORTION
OF THE MARINE AREA...TO W AND NW BECOMING NE ON THU ACROSS THE SRN
PORTION OF THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WITH NW FLOW AOB 15KT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS
SUNDAY. SEAS AVERAGE 2-4 THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 1-2 FT WAVES IN THE
BAY...TO 2-3 FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RISING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ALONG WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CREATE POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STARTING
WITH THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY.
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY BY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 041428
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1028 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH TODAY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER AIR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BE DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THAT UPPER LOW WILL
TRACK INTO NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN BE SLOW TO
EXIT THE MID ATLANTIC REGION INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FRONTAL BNDRY WILL REMAIN JUST OFF THE CST THRU TNGT. EXPECTING
VRBL CLOUDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THE REST OF TODAY. FA WILL
BE SITUATED BETWEEN BNDRY JUST OFF THE CST AND STRONG UPR LVL LO
PRES DIVING SSE FM THE WRN GRT LKS INTO THE OH VALLEY. WILL
MAINTAIN MAINLY 20-40% POPS INTO EARLY THIS EVENG...INCLUDING
A SLGT CHC OF TSTMS. HIGHEST CHCS WILL BE OVR NW AND NRN COUNTIES
WHERE DEEPER LO LVL MOISTURE/BEST FORCING WILL BE. HI TEMPS WILL
RANGE FM THE LWR TO MID 60S ON THE ERN SHORE...TO THE UPR 60S TO
LWR 70S ELSEWHERE IN CNTRL/ERN VA...AND LWR TO MID 70S IN NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNSETTLED WX WILL CONT ACRS THE FA TNGT THRU FRI...AS THE UPR LVL
LO PRES TRACKS SE INTO NC (THU) THEN SITS INVOF ERN VA (FRI).
CONTD VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS THROUGH THE PD...ALG W/ BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY OR HIGHER INLAND DURING THU
AS THE LO MOVES INTO NC. NR THE CST...WILL HAVE POPS MNLY 20-40%.
WILL HAVE MNLY 40-60% POPS THU NGT/FRI. LO TEMPS TNGT IN THE
L-M50S. HI TEMPS WED WILL RANGE FM 60-70F. LO TEMPS LOWS THU NGT
WILL BE IN THE U40S TO L50S. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L-M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. POPS RANGE FROM ~20% SW TO 30% NNE FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY...FOLLOWED BY PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH POPS 20% W...30-40% E. FORECAST LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S OVER THE ERN SHORE...TO THE LOW 70S
FOR INLAND VA/NE NC. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N SATURDAY
NIGHT AND CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY. GFS/CMC REMAIN SLIGHTLY FASTER
THAN THE ECMWF...BUT THE OVERALL CONSENSUS IS FOR A SUNDAY FRONTAL
PASSAGE. MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED WITH THIS BOUNDARY...WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHC POP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHS SUNDAY RISE INTO
THE MID/UPPER 70S AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE 50S. A MID/UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO GENERALLY
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS...WITH CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S MONDAY AND MODERATING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE W LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS A DIFFUSE COLD
FRONT DISSIPATES ACROSS NE NC. ONLY A VERY SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN
CIGS IS EXPECTED INTO THE AFTN...AS MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LAST FOR
MOST OF TODAY. ANY PARTIAL CLEARING (VFR CONDS) LATE THIS AFTN/EVE
WILL BE BRIEF WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING IFR CONDS RETURNING
TONIGHT/EARLY THU.

OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LOW SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH PERIODS OF IFR. THE WEEKEND IS A
TOSS UP ATTM AS TO WHETHER OR NOT IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
REALIZED.

&&

.MARINE...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG/OFF THE COAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT
AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES OVER NE NC. ANOTHER LOW THEN DEVELOPS IN
VICINITY OF THE COAST THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE AREA. THE WIND REMAINS AOB 15KT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WITH THE DIRECTION AVERAGING NE THEN N ACROSS THE NRN PORTION
OF THE MARINE AREA...TO W AND NW BECOMING NE ON THU ACROSS THE SRN
PORTION OF THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WITH NW FLOW AOB 15KT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS
SUNDAY. SEAS AVERAGE 2-4 THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 1-2 FT WAVES IN THE
BAY...TO 2-3 FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RISING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ALONG WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CREATE POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STARTING
WITH THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY.
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY BY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KPHI 041354
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
954 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONSOLIDATE OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND
THEN MOVES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WE HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AN
AREA OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AT MID
MORNING WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS IT ADVECTS TO THE NORTH. IT
SHOULD IMPACT THE REMAINDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE
BALANCE OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THE
LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE OVERALL TREND WELL.

OTHERWISE, LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH FOG
IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN
THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
PWAT DRIES TO 0.75 INCHES AND INSTABILITY ALOFT DECREASES BUT A
CONTD MOIST CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH PROBABLY PERIODS OF
MEASURABLE DRIZZLE AND MAYBE A FEW POCKETS OF SHOWERS.

50 50 BLENDED 00Z/4 GFS NAM GUIDANCE. WE SEE THE SPC WRF DRIES US
OUT CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT SO POPS ARE GENERALLY 60 PCT N AND 30-40
PCT SOUTH. BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE MAY BE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

NE WIND GUSTY NEAR 15 MPH... EXPECT 20-25 MPH MONMOUTH COUNTY
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN OMEGA BLOCK, THEN THIS
PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN SOME DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW WEEKS AGO THERE
WAS AN OMEGA BLOCK IN PLACE, HOWEVER AT THAT TIME WE WERE UNDER
THE RIDGE. THIS GO AROUND WE ARE UNDER THE TROUGH PART OF THE
BLOCK, KEEPING OUR WEATHER COOLER AND UNSETTLED. THE REST OF THE
WEEK WILL THEREFORE BE UNSETTLED WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT DURING THE
WEEKEND, THEN A MORE NOTABLE IMPROVEMENT ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WE USED A MODEL BLEND APPROACH FOR THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY, THEN BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME
ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH
OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE OMEGA BLOCK CONTINUES WITH A STRONG
SHORT WAVE CLOSING OFF THE TROUGH AS IT TRACKS FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THURSDAY. SOME SHORT
WAVE ENERGY TRACKING NORTHWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LARGE
TROUGH WILL TEAM UP WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE A MARINE LAYER AND
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS. THURSDAY MORNING HOWEVER COULD ALSO START
WITH SOME DRIZZLE. THE ENTIRE TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW ARE FORECAST
TO BECOME CENTERED ALONG THE EAST COAST FRIDAY WITH THE CLOSED LOW
ITSELF MOVING OVER OUR CWA DURING FRIDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST NORTHWARD ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS TO
NOT DEEPEN CONSIDERABLY. AS THIS OCCURS, THE 500 MB TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO COOL TO NEAR -24C ON FRIDAY. THIS WOULD PROMOTE
SOME INSTABILITY AND PERHAPS SOME LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION, HOWEVER
CLOUD COVER AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS MAY TEMPER THIS POTENTIAL.

OTHERWISE, AN EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS FRIDAY ACROSS OUR
NORTHEASTERN ZONES THEN THIS PIVOTS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SOME GUIDANCE IS STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE WHICH ALSO
DRIVES A BAND OF STRONGER 700-800 MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING.
OVERALL, THERE LOOKS LIKE DECENT LIFT ON THE NOSE OF THE EASTERLY
JET TO PROMOTE AN AREA OF SHOWERS/RAIN THAT PIVOTS INLAND DURING
FRIDAY. WE MAY NOT SEE ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, BUT IF THERE ARE
THEN ANY LOW- TOPPED CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL GIVEN THE
VERY COLD 500 MB TEMPERATURES. AS OF NOW HOWEVER, ANY INSTABILITY
LOOKS MEAGER. THE SYSTEM THEM MEANDERS OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND WHILE THERE SHOULD BE A DECREASE IN THE SHOWER COVERAGE SOME
SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL SLOWING TREND
IN THE GUIDANCE WHEN COMPARING THE MANY MODELS AND ENSEMBLES. THIS
TENDS TO HAPPEN WITH BLOCKING PATTERNS AS IT TAKES LONGER FOR THE
CLOSED LOW TO OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT. THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES AT THE SURFACE ON SATURDAY WHICH LEADS TO PLENTY OF
DETAIL UNCERTAINTIES INCLUDING THE AMOUNT OF RAIN. WE THEREFORE
LEANED CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE BUT ALSO INCORPORATING SOME
CONTINUITY. THIS MEANS THAT SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE STILL UNSETTLED
WITH SOME SHOWERS STILL HANGING AROUND. THE AMOUNT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL DEPEND ON THE SHORT WAVE FORCING AROUND THE CLOSED
LOW, HOWEVER PLENTY OF COLD AIR REMAINS ALOFT WHICH WILL HELP WITH
SOME INSTABILITY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD OPEN UP AND START SHIFTING
EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPSTREAM ENERGY IN THE FORM OF A TROUGH
SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS DRIVES A COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA MOSTLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH PERHAPS SOME
SHOWERS. THE AIR ALOFT MODIFIES SOME THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
THEREFORE MODERATING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESULT ESPECIALLY
ON SUNDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WE TRANSITION OUT OF AN OMEGA BLOCK
DURING THIS TIME FRAME, RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES. SOME
GUIDANCE HOWEVER HAS A SHORT WAVE AMPLIFYING A TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST TUESDAY AS A RIDGE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IT APPEARS THAT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
WITH TIME, HOWEVER ENERGY IN THE PLAINS WILL SEND A DEVELOPING
WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH TOWARD OUR AREA TUESDAY. WE KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY ATTM WITH MUCH WARMER AIR BUILDING INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...GENERALLY IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2-5 MI IN PERIODS OF
SHOWERS. TIMING OF THE RAIN MAINLY LATE MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED THUNDER NOT IMPOSSIBLE PER NAM/GFS INSTABILITY ALOFT,
MAINLY DELMARVA OR SE PA/S NJ. NE WIND WITH A FEW GUSTS 15-20 KT
VCNTY KPHL/KACY.

TONIGHT...GENERALLY IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2-5 MI IN SCT SHOWERS
DIMINISHING OR ENDING-EXITING NEWD EARLY/PATCHY DRIZZLE-FOG IN THE
WAKE OF THE NEWD SHOWER DEPARTURE. POSSIBLE LIFR CIGS. NE WIND G
15-20 KT POSSIBLE KPHL- KTTN- KACY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS PERSIST WITH AN ONSHORE
FLOW AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST. TIMES OF SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED AS WELL WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY OCCURRING ON
FRIDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE /LESS AT
NIGHT/ WITH THE HIGHER SPEEDS MAINLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE TO START
SATURDAY, THEN IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR. SOME SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AS ONE SYSTEM DEPARTS ON SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH MAINLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY THEN LIGHT SOUTHWEST AT NIGHT, BEFORE SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS DURING SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WITH WIND NNJ AND SCA SNJ.

DID NOT ATTM ADD SCA FOR DE COAST SINCE 44009 ON THE OUTER EDGE
OF 455 IS MARGINALLY 5 FT. HOWEVER, AM NOW ANTICIPATING WE`LL NEED
AN SCA IN THE DE ATLC WATERS FOR LATER TONIGHT.

SST`S ARE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE FOR
A TIME THURSDAY AS ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY. A
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES DURING FRIDAY WITH A
POSSIBLE 25-30 KNOT NORTHEASTERLY SURGE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF AN
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET THAT LIFTS NORTHWARD FRIDAY. THE SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO BE 4-6 FEET MOSTLY FOR THE NEW JERSEY ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS, AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH 22Z
THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AGAIN, AND SEAS MAY
BUILD TO 5 FEET FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEREFORE THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY MORNING WITH
THE WINDS TURNING SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF IT LATE SATURDAY THEN
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, HOWEVER IT APPEARS
THAT SPEEDS ARE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SEAS SHOULD ALSO BE
DROPPING BELOW 5 FEET WITH SOME HELP ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE FLOW
INCREASING FROM OFFSHORE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CF ADVISORY ISSUED. GUIDANCE SUGGESTIONS OF INCREASED POSITIVE
DEPARTURES COMBINED WITH INCREASING ASTRONOMICAL EVENING TIDES,
LOWERING PRESSURE AND AN INCREASING ONSHORE WIND FAVORED AN
ADVISORY ISSUANCE. IT WILL BE MARGINAL...PROBABLY PLUS OR MINUS .2
FT FROM THRESHOLD.

THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE, ESPECIALLY NEAR LEWES WAS .3FT HIGHER
THAN LAST EVENINGS. THAT UPWARD DEPARTURE TREND SHOULD CONTINUE
THE NEXT SEVERAL CYCLES.

THE LONG DURATION NORTHEASTERLY FETCH COMBINED WITH A DAILY
INCREASE IN ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AS WE APPROACH THE NEW MOON FRIDAY
WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF MINOR EVENING COASTAL FLOODING.

ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE COULD/SHOULD BE SOME MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING,
THURSDAY EVENING, AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY EVENING.

FOR NOW, ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE NJ/DE COASTS AND
DELAWARE BAY FOR THIS EVENINGS HIGH TIDE.

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF REACHING A MODERATE THRESHOLD
FRIDAY EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR NJZ012>014-020>027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ452-453.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450-451.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG/IOVINO
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 041309
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
909 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. MAINLY DRY FRIDAY BEFORE SHOWER CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SEVERAL MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED THIS MORNING BUT OVERALL THE
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. HOURLY TEMPERATURES WERE
ADJUSTED DOWN SLIGHTLY TO BETTER ALIGN WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS AND MENTION OF THUNDER WAS REMOVED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS
LATEST GUIDANCE PROGS MINIMAL INSTABILITY AND 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW A
WEAK CAP AT 600MB. IF DEWPOINTS STAY STEADY OR RISE SLIGHTLY AND
TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL MORE THAN FORECAST THEN THERE IS A CHANCE
OF CONVECTION BUT AT THIS TIME THAT LOOKS UNLIKELY. LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW DEEPENING TO OUR WEST...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTH AND THE FORECAST
AREA SITS UNDER THE DEFORMATION ZONE. THIS SETUP WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COOL MID LEVEL CLOSED SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND CLOSED
LOW COMBINED WITH COLD POOL ALOFT WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY LOW MAY BECOME BECOME
MORE ELONGATED NEAR THE COAST...ALTHOUGH NEWEST LONGER RANGE
MODELS DISAGREE ON PLACEMENT AND SPEED OF LOW LIFTING OUT. HAVE
KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS INTO THE RIDGES FRIDAY WITH A DRYING TREND
ELSEWHERE. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT TO SHUNT LOW TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING BACK SHOWER CHANCES SATURDAY
WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT PUSHING TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPR TROF AND SFC BOUNDARY PASSAGE IS PROGGED ERLY IN THE PERIOD
WITH THE BEST CHCS FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...BUILDING RIDGING
SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER UNTIL AN APPROACHING UPR TROF
ADVANCES OUT OF THE MID WEST BY MID WEEK. TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL LVLS
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE AVG BY MID WEEK. THE SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE...WITH DOWNWARD MID WEEK POP ADJUSTMENT...WAS USED FOR
THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OTHER THAN ISOLATED ERLY MRNG FOG...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THRU THE AFTN. APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SHOULD RESULT IN SCT LGT
SHOWERS FOR WHICH A VCSH MENTION WAS MAINTAINED TODAY...THOUGH
BETTER CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHEN THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT IS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THU/FRI WITH PERSISTENT LOW
PRESSURE...AND AGAIN WITH A SAT NGT COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPHI 041059
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
659 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONSOLIDATE OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THEN MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS AND DRIZZLE.

ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE DELMARVA OR EVEN SE PA OR S NJ IN
RESPONSE TO A POCKET OF INSTABILITY ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A KI
POOL 30+ AND TT NEAR 52 AS WELL AS A WEAK 850MB TROUGH. QPF IS
THAT FROM WPC. SHOULD BE SMALL POCKETS OF EMBEDDED .25 TO .5
INCHES TODAY, SINCE PWAT INCREASES TO ABOUT 1 INCH.

ADDED "HEAVY" WORDING TO NE NJ IN THE 630 AM UPDATE PER INCREASED
QPF. DID NOT ADD THUNDER TO THE FCST IN THE 630 AM ISSUANCE.

NE WIND GUSTY 15-20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON I-95 CORRIDOR EASTWARD IN
CYCLONIC FLOW WITH A GRADUALLY INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

FOG...MAINLY IN THE HIGH TERRAIN...POCONOS/KITTATINNYS.

50 50 BLENDED 00Z/4 GFS/NAM MOS...FAVORING THE COLDER SIDE AS WE
DRAW FROM THE COOLER WET BULB RESERVOIR OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
PWAT DRIES TO 0.75 INCHES AND INSTABILITY ALOFT DECREASES BUT A CONTD
MOIST CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH PROBABLY PERIODS OF MEASURABLE DRIZZLE
AND MAYBE A FEW POCKETS OF SHOWERS.

50 50 BLENDED 00Z/4 GFS NAM GUIDANCE. WE SEE THE SPC WRF DRIES US
OUT CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT SO POPS ARE GENERALLY 60 PCT N AND 30-40
PCT SOUTH. BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE MAY BE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

NE WIND GUSTY NEAR 15 MPH... EXPECT 20-25 MPH MONMOUTH COUNTY COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN OMEGA BLOCK, THEN THIS PATTERN
IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN SOME DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW WEEKS AGO THERE WAS AN OMEGA
BLOCK IN PLACE, HOWEVER AT THAT TIME WE WERE UNDER THE RIDGE.
THIS GO AROUND WE ARE UNDER THE TROUGH PART OF THE BLOCK, KEEPING
OUR WEATHER COOLER AND UNSETTLED. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL
THEREFORE BE UNSETTLED WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT DURING THE WEEKEND,
THEN A MORE NOTABLE IMPROVEMENT ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE
USED A MODEL BLEND APPROACH FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY, THEN BLENDED
IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE
FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE OMEGA BLOCK CONTINUES WITH A STRONG
SHORT WAVE CLOSING OFF THE TROUGH AS IT TRACKS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THURSDAY. SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY
TRACKING NORTHWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LARGE TROUGH WILL TEAM UP
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE A MARINE LAYER AND PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS.
THURSDAY MORNING HOWEVER COULD ALSO START WITH SOME DRIZZLE. THE
ENTIRE TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW ARE FORECAST TO BECOME CENTERED ALONG
THE EAST COAST FRIDAY WITH THE CLOSED LOW ITSELF MOVING OVER OUR CWA
DURING FRIDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST NORTHWARD ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS TO NOT DEEPEN CONSIDERABLY. AS
THIS OCCURS, THE 500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL TO NEAR
-24C ON FRIDAY. THIS WOULD PROMOTE SOME INSTABILITY AND PERHAPS SOME
LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION, HOWEVER CLOUD COVER AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS MAY
TEMPER THIS POTENTIAL.

OTHERWISE, AN EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS FRIDAY ACROSS OUR
NORTHEASTERN ZONES THEN THIS PIVOTS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SOME GUIDANCE IS STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE WHICH ALSO
DRIVES A BAND OF STRONGER 700-800 MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. OVERALL,
THERE LOOKS LIKE DECENT LIFT ON THE NOSE OF THE EASTERLY JET TO
PROMOTE AN AREA OF SHOWERS/RAIN THAT PIVOTS INLAND DURING FRIDAY. WE
MAY NOT SEE ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, BUT IF THERE ARE THEN ANY LOW-
TOPPED CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL GIVEN THE VERY COLD
500 MB TEMPERATURES. AS OF NOW HOWEVER, ANY INSTABILITY LOOKS MEAGER.
THE SYSTEM THEM MEANDERS OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND WHILE THERE
SHOULD BE A DECREASE IN THE SHOWER COVERAGE SOME SHOULD LINGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL SLOWING TREND IN
THE GUIDANCE WHEN COMPARING THE MANY MODELS AND ENSEMBLES. THIS
TENDS TO HAPPEN WITH BLOCKING PATTERNS AS IT TAKES LONGER FOR THE
CLOSED LOW TO OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT. THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES AT THE SURFACE ON SATURDAY WHICH LEADS TO PLENTY OF
DETAIL UNCERTAINTIES INCLUDING THE AMOUNT OF RAIN. WE THEREFORE
LEANED CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE BUT ALSO INCORPORATING SOME
CONTINUITY. THIS MEANS THAT SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE STILL UNSETTLED
WITH SOME SHOWERS STILL HANGING AROUND. THE AMOUNT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL DEPEND ON THE SHORT WAVE FORCING AROUND THE CLOSED
LOW, HOWEVER PLENTY OF COLD AIR REMAINS ALOFT WHICH WILL HELP WITH
SOME INSTABILITY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD OPEN UP AND START SHIFTING EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPSTREAM ENERGY IN THE FORM OF A TROUGH SLIDES
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS DRIVES A COLD FRONT ACROSS
OUR AREA MOSTLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS. THE AIR
ALOFT MODIFIES SOME THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEREFORE MODERATING
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESULT ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WE TRANSITION OUT OF AN OMEGA BLOCK DURING
THIS TIME FRAME, RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES. SOME GUIDANCE
HOWEVER HAS A SHORT WAVE AMPLIFYING A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST TUESDAY AS A RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. IT APPEARS THAT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH TIME, HOWEVER
ENERGY IN THE PLAINS WILL SEND A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH
TOWARD OUR AREA TUESDAY. WE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY ATTM WITH MUCH
WARMER AIR BUILDING INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.


TODAY...GENERALLY IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2-5 MI IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS/
PATCHY DRIZZLE-FOG. TIMING OF THE RAIN/DRIZZLE LESS THAN CERTAIN.
ISOLATED THUNDER NOT IMPOSSIBLE PER NAM/GFS INSTABILITY ALOFT,
MAINLY DELMARVA OR SE PA/S NJ. NE WIND WITH A FEW GUSTS 15-20 KT
VCNTY KPHL/KACY.

TONIGHT...GENERALLY IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2-5 MI IN SCT SHOWERS
DIMINISHING OR ENDING-EXITING NEWD EARLY/PATCHY DRIZZLE-FOG IN THE
WAKE OF THE NEWD SHOWER DEPARTURE. POSSIBLE LIFR CIGS. NE WIND G
15-20 KT POSSIBLE KPHL- KTTN- KACY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS PERSIST WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW
AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST. TIMES OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
AS WELL WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY OCCURRING ON FRIDAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE /LESS AT NIGHT/ WITH
THE HIGHER SPEEDS MAINLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE TO START SATURDAY,
THEN IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS
ONE SYSTEM DEPARTS ON SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
MAINLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
THEN LIGHT SOUTHWEST AT NIGHT, BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AND
INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS DURING SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WITH WIND NNJ AND SCA SNJ.

DID NOT ATTM ADD SCA FOR DE COAST SINCE 44009 ON THE OUTER EDGE OF
455 IS MARGINALLY 5 FT. HOWEVER, AM NOW ANTICIPATING WE`LL NEED AN
SCA IN THE DE ATLC WATERS FOR LATER TONIGHT.

SST`S ARE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.


OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE FOR A
TIME THURSDAY AS ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY. A
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES DURING FRIDAY WITH A POSSIBLE
25-30 KNOT NORTHEASTERLY SURGE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF AN EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL
JET THAT LIFTS NORTHWARD FRIDAY. THE SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE 4-6
FEET MOSTLY FOR THE NEW JERSEY ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, AND THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH 22Z THURSDAY. THIS WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AGAIN, AND SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FEET
FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEREFORE THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO
BE EXPANDED SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE
WINDS TURNING SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF IT LATE SATURDAY THEN SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE SUNDAY
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT SPEEDS ARE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SEAS SHOULD ALSO BE DROPPING BELOW 5 FEET
WITH SOME HELP ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE FLOW INCREASING FROM OFFSHORE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CF ADVISORY ISSUED. GUIDANCE SUGGESTIONS OF INCREASED POSITIVE
DEPARTURES COMBINED WITH INCREASING ASTRONOMICAL EVENING TIDES,
LOWERING PRESSURE AND AN INCREASING ONSHORE WIND FAVORED AN
ADVISORY ISSUANCE. IT WILL BE MARGINAL...PROBABLY PLUS OR MINUS
.2 FT FROM THRESHOLD.

THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE, ESPECIALLY NEAR LEWES WAS .3FT HIGHER
THAN LAST EVENINGS. THAT UPWARD DEPARTURE TREND SHOULD CONTINUE
THE NEXT SEVERAL CYCLES.

THE LONG DURATION NORTHEASTERLY FETCH COMBINED WITH A DAILY INCREASE
IN ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AS WE APPROACH THE NEW MOON FRIDAY WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF MINOR EVENING COASTAL FLOODING.

ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE COULD/SHOULD BE SOME MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING, THURSDAY
EVENING, AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY EVENING.

FOR NOW, ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE NJ/DE COASTS AND
DELAWARE BAY FOR THIS EVENINGS HIGH TIDE.

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF REACHING A MODERATE THRESHOLD
FRIDAY EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
SRF WORKS FINE IN OUR TEST THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR THIS PRODUCT
BEGINNING FRIDAY MAY 20 530 AM AND WE`LL HAVE A NEWS HEADLINE LINK
FOR IT.

HERE`S A SHORT USEFUL REVIEW OF RIP CURRENT SCIENCE PRODUCED BY A
PARTNERSHIP OF NWS AND OCEANS TODAY.

HTTP://OCEANTODAY.NOAA.GOV/RIPCURRENTSCIENCE/

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ012>014-020>027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ452-453.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450-451.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG 659
SHORT TERM...DRAG 659
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 659
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 659
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...658
RIP CURRENTS..659




000
FXUS61 KPHI 041059
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
659 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONSOLIDATE OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THEN MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS AND DRIZZLE.

ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE DELMARVA OR EVEN SE PA OR S NJ IN
RESPONSE TO A POCKET OF INSTABILITY ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A KI
POOL 30+ AND TT NEAR 52 AS WELL AS A WEAK 850MB TROUGH. QPF IS
THAT FROM WPC. SHOULD BE SMALL POCKETS OF EMBEDDED .25 TO .5
INCHES TODAY, SINCE PWAT INCREASES TO ABOUT 1 INCH.

ADDED "HEAVY" WORDING TO NE NJ IN THE 630 AM UPDATE PER INCREASED
QPF. DID NOT ADD THUNDER TO THE FCST IN THE 630 AM ISSUANCE.

NE WIND GUSTY 15-20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON I-95 CORRIDOR EASTWARD IN
CYCLONIC FLOW WITH A GRADUALLY INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

FOG...MAINLY IN THE HIGH TERRAIN...POCONOS/KITTATINNYS.

50 50 BLENDED 00Z/4 GFS/NAM MOS...FAVORING THE COLDER SIDE AS WE
DRAW FROM THE COOLER WET BULB RESERVOIR OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
PWAT DRIES TO 0.75 INCHES AND INSTABILITY ALOFT DECREASES BUT A CONTD
MOIST CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH PROBABLY PERIODS OF MEASURABLE DRIZZLE
AND MAYBE A FEW POCKETS OF SHOWERS.

50 50 BLENDED 00Z/4 GFS NAM GUIDANCE. WE SEE THE SPC WRF DRIES US
OUT CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT SO POPS ARE GENERALLY 60 PCT N AND 30-40
PCT SOUTH. BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE MAY BE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

NE WIND GUSTY NEAR 15 MPH... EXPECT 20-25 MPH MONMOUTH COUNTY COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN OMEGA BLOCK, THEN THIS PATTERN
IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN SOME DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW WEEKS AGO THERE WAS AN OMEGA
BLOCK IN PLACE, HOWEVER AT THAT TIME WE WERE UNDER THE RIDGE.
THIS GO AROUND WE ARE UNDER THE TROUGH PART OF THE BLOCK, KEEPING
OUR WEATHER COOLER AND UNSETTLED. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL
THEREFORE BE UNSETTLED WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT DURING THE WEEKEND,
THEN A MORE NOTABLE IMPROVEMENT ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE
USED A MODEL BLEND APPROACH FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY, THEN BLENDED
IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE
FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE OMEGA BLOCK CONTINUES WITH A STRONG
SHORT WAVE CLOSING OFF THE TROUGH AS IT TRACKS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THURSDAY. SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY
TRACKING NORTHWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LARGE TROUGH WILL TEAM UP
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE A MARINE LAYER AND PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS.
THURSDAY MORNING HOWEVER COULD ALSO START WITH SOME DRIZZLE. THE
ENTIRE TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW ARE FORECAST TO BECOME CENTERED ALONG
THE EAST COAST FRIDAY WITH THE CLOSED LOW ITSELF MOVING OVER OUR CWA
DURING FRIDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST NORTHWARD ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS TO NOT DEEPEN CONSIDERABLY. AS
THIS OCCURS, THE 500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL TO NEAR
-24C ON FRIDAY. THIS WOULD PROMOTE SOME INSTABILITY AND PERHAPS SOME
LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION, HOWEVER CLOUD COVER AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS MAY
TEMPER THIS POTENTIAL.

OTHERWISE, AN EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS FRIDAY ACROSS OUR
NORTHEASTERN ZONES THEN THIS PIVOTS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SOME GUIDANCE IS STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE WHICH ALSO
DRIVES A BAND OF STRONGER 700-800 MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. OVERALL,
THERE LOOKS LIKE DECENT LIFT ON THE NOSE OF THE EASTERLY JET TO
PROMOTE AN AREA OF SHOWERS/RAIN THAT PIVOTS INLAND DURING FRIDAY. WE
MAY NOT SEE ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, BUT IF THERE ARE THEN ANY LOW-
TOPPED CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL GIVEN THE VERY COLD
500 MB TEMPERATURES. AS OF NOW HOWEVER, ANY INSTABILITY LOOKS MEAGER.
THE SYSTEM THEM MEANDERS OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND WHILE THERE
SHOULD BE A DECREASE IN THE SHOWER COVERAGE SOME SHOULD LINGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL SLOWING TREND IN
THE GUIDANCE WHEN COMPARING THE MANY MODELS AND ENSEMBLES. THIS
TENDS TO HAPPEN WITH BLOCKING PATTERNS AS IT TAKES LONGER FOR THE
CLOSED LOW TO OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT. THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES AT THE SURFACE ON SATURDAY WHICH LEADS TO PLENTY OF
DETAIL UNCERTAINTIES INCLUDING THE AMOUNT OF RAIN. WE THEREFORE
LEANED CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE BUT ALSO INCORPORATING SOME
CONTINUITY. THIS MEANS THAT SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE STILL UNSETTLED
WITH SOME SHOWERS STILL HANGING AROUND. THE AMOUNT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL DEPEND ON THE SHORT WAVE FORCING AROUND THE CLOSED
LOW, HOWEVER PLENTY OF COLD AIR REMAINS ALOFT WHICH WILL HELP WITH
SOME INSTABILITY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD OPEN UP AND START SHIFTING EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPSTREAM ENERGY IN THE FORM OF A TROUGH SLIDES
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS DRIVES A COLD FRONT ACROSS
OUR AREA MOSTLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS. THE AIR
ALOFT MODIFIES SOME THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEREFORE MODERATING
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESULT ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WE TRANSITION OUT OF AN OMEGA BLOCK DURING
THIS TIME FRAME, RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES. SOME GUIDANCE
HOWEVER HAS A SHORT WAVE AMPLIFYING A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST TUESDAY AS A RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. IT APPEARS THAT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH TIME, HOWEVER
ENERGY IN THE PLAINS WILL SEND A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH
TOWARD OUR AREA TUESDAY. WE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY ATTM WITH MUCH
WARMER AIR BUILDING INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.


TODAY...GENERALLY IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2-5 MI IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS/
PATCHY DRIZZLE-FOG. TIMING OF THE RAIN/DRIZZLE LESS THAN CERTAIN.
ISOLATED THUNDER NOT IMPOSSIBLE PER NAM/GFS INSTABILITY ALOFT,
MAINLY DELMARVA OR SE PA/S NJ. NE WIND WITH A FEW GUSTS 15-20 KT
VCNTY KPHL/KACY.

TONIGHT...GENERALLY IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2-5 MI IN SCT SHOWERS
DIMINISHING OR ENDING-EXITING NEWD EARLY/PATCHY DRIZZLE-FOG IN THE
WAKE OF THE NEWD SHOWER DEPARTURE. POSSIBLE LIFR CIGS. NE WIND G
15-20 KT POSSIBLE KPHL- KTTN- KACY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS PERSIST WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW
AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST. TIMES OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
AS WELL WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY OCCURRING ON FRIDAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE /LESS AT NIGHT/ WITH
THE HIGHER SPEEDS MAINLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE TO START SATURDAY,
THEN IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS
ONE SYSTEM DEPARTS ON SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
MAINLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
THEN LIGHT SOUTHWEST AT NIGHT, BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AND
INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS DURING SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WITH WIND NNJ AND SCA SNJ.

DID NOT ATTM ADD SCA FOR DE COAST SINCE 44009 ON THE OUTER EDGE OF
455 IS MARGINALLY 5 FT. HOWEVER, AM NOW ANTICIPATING WE`LL NEED AN
SCA IN THE DE ATLC WATERS FOR LATER TONIGHT.

SST`S ARE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.


OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE FOR A
TIME THURSDAY AS ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY. A
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES DURING FRIDAY WITH A POSSIBLE
25-30 KNOT NORTHEASTERLY SURGE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF AN EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL
JET THAT LIFTS NORTHWARD FRIDAY. THE SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE 4-6
FEET MOSTLY FOR THE NEW JERSEY ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, AND THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH 22Z THURSDAY. THIS WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AGAIN, AND SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FEET
FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEREFORE THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO
BE EXPANDED SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE
WINDS TURNING SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF IT LATE SATURDAY THEN SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE SUNDAY
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT SPEEDS ARE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SEAS SHOULD ALSO BE DROPPING BELOW 5 FEET
WITH SOME HELP ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE FLOW INCREASING FROM OFFSHORE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CF ADVISORY ISSUED. GUIDANCE SUGGESTIONS OF INCREASED POSITIVE
DEPARTURES COMBINED WITH INCREASING ASTRONOMICAL EVENING TIDES,
LOWERING PRESSURE AND AN INCREASING ONSHORE WIND FAVORED AN
ADVISORY ISSUANCE. IT WILL BE MARGINAL...PROBABLY PLUS OR MINUS
.2 FT FROM THRESHOLD.

THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE, ESPECIALLY NEAR LEWES WAS .3FT HIGHER
THAN LAST EVENINGS. THAT UPWARD DEPARTURE TREND SHOULD CONTINUE
THE NEXT SEVERAL CYCLES.

THE LONG DURATION NORTHEASTERLY FETCH COMBINED WITH A DAILY INCREASE
IN ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AS WE APPROACH THE NEW MOON FRIDAY WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF MINOR EVENING COASTAL FLOODING.

ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE COULD/SHOULD BE SOME MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING, THURSDAY
EVENING, AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY EVENING.

FOR NOW, ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE NJ/DE COASTS AND
DELAWARE BAY FOR THIS EVENINGS HIGH TIDE.

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF REACHING A MODERATE THRESHOLD
FRIDAY EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
SRF WORKS FINE IN OUR TEST THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR THIS PRODUCT
BEGINNING FRIDAY MAY 20 530 AM AND WE`LL HAVE A NEWS HEADLINE LINK
FOR IT.

HERE`S A SHORT USEFUL REVIEW OF RIP CURRENT SCIENCE PRODUCED BY A
PARTNERSHIP OF NWS AND OCEANS TODAY.

HTTP://OCEANTODAY.NOAA.GOV/RIPCURRENTSCIENCE/

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ012>014-020>027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ452-453.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450-451.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG 659
SHORT TERM...DRAG 659
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 659
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 659
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...658
RIP CURRENTS..659




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 041020
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
620 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH TODAY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER AIR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BE DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDWEST. THAT UPPER LOW WILL TRACK
INTO NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN BE SLOW TO
EXIT THE MID ATLANTIC REGION INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FRONTAL BNDRY WILL RMN JUST OFF THE CST THROUGH TDA. ISOLD-SCT
SHRAS-TSTMS NOW MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF ERN VA/NE NC XPCD TO
CONT TO E THE NEXT FEW HRS. OTRW...XPCG VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDS TDA. FA WILL BE SITUATED BTWN BNDRY JUST OFF THE CST AND
STRONG UPR LVL LO PRES DIVING SSE THROUGH THE WRN LAKES INTO OH
VLY. WILL CARRY MNLY 20-40% POPS TDA (PRIMARILY FOR THIS
AFTN)...INCLUDING PSBL ISOLD TSTMS. HI TEMPS FM THE L-M60S ON THE
ERN SHORE TO THE U60S- L70S ELSW IN CNTRL/ERN VA AND L-M70S IN NE
NC..

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNSETTLED WX WILL CONT ACRS THE FA TNGT THRU FRI...AS THE UPR LVL
LO PRES TRACKS SE INTO NC (THU) THEN SITS INVOF ERN VA (FRI).
CONTD VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS THROUGH THE PD...ALG W/ BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY OR HIGHER INLAND DURING THU
AS THE LO MOVES INTO NC. NR THE CST...WILL HAVE POPS MNLY 20-40%.
WILL HAVE MNLY 40-60% POPS THU NGT/FRI. LO TEMPS TNGT IN THE
L-M50S. HI TEMPS WED WILL RANGE FM 60-70F. LO TEMPS LOWS THU NGT
WILL BE IN THE U40S TO L50S. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L-M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. POPS RANGE FROM ~20% SW TO 30% NNE FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY...FOLLOWED BY PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH POPS 20% W...30-40% E. FORECAST LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S OVER THE ERN SHORE...TO THE LOW 70S
FOR INLAND VA/NE NC. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N SATURDAY
NIGHT AND CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY. GFS/CMC REMAIN SLIGHTLY FASTER
THAN THE ECMWF...BUT THE OVERALL CONSENSUS IS FOR A SUNDAY FRONTAL
PASSAGE. MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED WITH THIS BOUNDARY...WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHC POP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHS SUNDAY RISE INTO
THE MID/UPPER 70S AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE 50S. A MID/UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO GENERALLY
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS...WITH CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S MONDAY AND MODERATING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE W LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS A DIFFUSE COLD
FRONT DISSIPATES ACROSS NE NC. ONLY A VERY SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN
CIGS IS EXPECTED INTO THE AFTN...AS MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LAST FOR
MOST OF TODAY. ANY PARTIAL CLEARING (VFR CONDS) LATE THIS AFTN/EVE
WILL BE BRIEF WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING IFR CONDS RETURNING
TONIGHT/EARLY THU.

OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LOW SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH PERIODS OF IFR. THE WEEKEND IS A
TOSS UP ATTM AS TO WHETHER OR NOT IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
REALIZED.

&&

.MARINE...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG/OFF THE COAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT
AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES OVER NE NC. ANOTHER LOW THEN DEVELOPS IN
VICINITY OF THE COAST THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE AREA. THE WIND REMAINS AOB 15KT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WITH THE DIRECTION AVERAGING NE THEN N ACROSS THE NRN PORTION
OF THE MARINE AREA...TO W AND NW BECOMING NE ON THU ACROSS THE SRN
PORTION OF THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WITH NW FLOW AOB 15KT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS
SUNDAY. SEAS AVERAGE 2-4 THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 1-2 FT WAVES IN THE
BAY...TO 2-3 FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RISING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ALONG WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CREATE POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STARTING
WITH THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY.
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY BY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 041004
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
604 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. MAINLY DRY FRIDAY BEFORE SHOWER CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY GRIDS FOR THE NEAR DAWN UPDATE BASED ON OBS
AND NEAR TERM MODEL DATA. PREVIOUS...DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
CLOSE OFF LATER TODAY OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH SHOWERS
INCREASING WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. WITH SOME INSOLATION IN
THE MORNING AND HEIGHT FALLS IN THE AFTERNOON HAVE ADDED A CHANCE
OF LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO
10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. AS CLOSED LOW DEEPENS TONIGHT TOWARD
KENTUCKY...THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL BE UNDER DEFORMATION ZONE ON
FRONT SIDE OF LOW...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COOL MID LEVEL CLOSED SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND CLOSED
LOW COMBINED WITH COLD POOL ALOFT WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY LOW MAY BECOME BECOME
MORE ELONGATED NEAR THE COAST...ALTHOUGH NEWEST LONGER RANGE
MODELS DISAGREE ON PLACEMENT AND SPEED OF LOW LIFTING OUT. HAVE
KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS INTO THE RIDGES FRIDAY WITH A DRYING TREND
ELSEWHERE. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT TO SHUNT LOW TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING BACK SHOWER CHANCES SATURDAY
WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT PUSHING TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPR TROF AND SFC BOUNDARY PASSAGE IS PROGGED ERLY IN THE PERIOD
WITH THE BEST CHCS FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...BUILDING RIDGING
SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER UNTIL AN APPROACHING UPR TROF
ADVANCES OUT OF THE MID WEST BY MID WEEK. TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL LVLS
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE AVG BY MID WEEK. THE SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE...WITH DOWNWARD MID WEEK POP ADJUSTMENT...WAS USED FOR
THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OTHER THAN ISOLATED ERLY MRNG FOG...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THRU THE AFTN. APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SHOULD RESULT IN SCT LGT
SHOWERS FOR WHICH A VCSH MENTION WAS MAINTAINED TODAY...THOUGH
BETTER CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHEN THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT IS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THU/FRI WITH PERSISTENT LOW
PRESSURE...AND AGAIN WITH A SAT NGT COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPHI 040905
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
505 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONSOLIDATE OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND
THEN MOVES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY TODAY...SHOWERS AS PER 455 AM RADAR...MOSTLY ALONG AND NW
OF I95 WITH A LOBE SWD ALONG THE S NJ AND DE COASTS.

AFTER SUNRISE...PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS AND DRIZZLE, ESPECIALLY
I-95 CORRIDOR WESTWARD. (THERE MAY BE A SEVERAL HOUR BREAK IN THE
SHOWERS THIS MORNING BUT NOT MAKING A MOVE ON THAT TIL 6 AM AT THE
EARLIEST...ALREADY MORE SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEWD FROM E VA INTO THE
DELMARVA).

ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE DELMARVA OR EVEN SE PA OR S NJ IN
RESPONSE TO A POCKET OF INSTABILITY ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A KI
POOL 30+ AND TT NEAR 52 AS WELL AS A WEAK 850MB TROUGH. QPF IS
THAT FROM WPC. SHOULD BE SMALL POCKETS OF EMBEDDED .25 TO .5
INCHES TODAY, SINCE PWAT INCREASES TO ABOUT 1 INCH.

MAY ADD "HEAVY" WORDING TO NNJ IN THE 630 AM UPDATE? MAY ALSO ADD
THUNDER TO THE FCST IN THE 630 AM ISSUANCE.. S NJ AND DE AS WELL
AS COASTS. STILL UNCERTAIN ON WHETHER TO ADD.

NE WIND GUSTY 15-20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON I-95 CORRIDOR EASTWARD IN
CYCLONIC FLOW WITH A GRADUALLY INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

FOG...MAINLY IN THE HIGH TERRAIN...POCONOS/KITTATINNYS.

50 50 BLENDED 00Z/4 GFS/NAM MOS...FAVORING THE COLDER SIDE AS WE
DRAW FROM THE COOLER WET BULB RESERVOIR OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
PWAT DRIES TO 0.75 INCHES AND INSTABILITY ALOFT DECREASES BUT A CONTD
MOIST CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH PROBABLY PERIODS OF MEASURABLE DRIZZLE
AND MAYBE A FEW POCKETS OF SHOWERS.

50 50 BLENDED 00Z/4 GFS NAM GUIDANCE. WE SEE THE SPC WRF DRIES US
OUT CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT SO POPS ARE GENERALLY 60 PCT N AND 30-40
PCT SOUTH. BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE MAY BE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

NE WIND GUSTY NEAR 15 MPH... EXPECT 20-25 MPH MONMOUTH COUNTY COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN OMEGA BLOCK, THEN THIS PATTERN
IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN SOME DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW WEEKS AGO THERE WAS AN OMEGA
BLOCK IN PLACE, HOWEVER AT THAT TIME WE WERE UNDER THE RIDGE.
THIS GO AROUND WE ARE UNDER THE TROUGH PART OF THE BLOCK, KEEPING
OUR WEATHER COOLER AND UNSETTLED. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL
THEREFORE BE UNSETTLED WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT DURING THE WEEKEND,
THEN A MORE NOTABLE IMPROVEMENT ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE
USED A MODEL BLEND APPROACH FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY, THEN BLENDED
IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE
FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE OMEGA BLOCK CONTINUES WITH A STRONG
SHORT WAVE CLOSING OFF THE TROUGH AS IT TRACKS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THURSDAY. SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY
TRACKING NORTHWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LARGE TROUGH WILL TEAM UP
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE A MARINE LAYER AND PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS.
THURSDAY MORNING HOWEVER COULD ALSO START WITH SOME DRIZZLE. THE
ENTIRE TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW ARE FORECAST TO BECOME CENTERED ALONG
THE EAST COAST FRIDAY WITH THE CLOSED LOW ITSELF MOVING OVER OUR CWA
DURING FRIDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST NORTHWARD ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS TO NOT DEEPEN CONSIDERABLY. AS
THIS OCCURS, THE 500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL TO NEAR
-24C ON FRIDAY. THIS WOULD PROMOTE SOME INSTABILITY AND PERHAPS SOME
LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION, HOWEVER CLOUD COVER AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS MAY
TEMPER THIS POTENTIAL.

OTHERWISE, AN EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS FRIDAY ACROSS OUR
NORTHEASTERN ZONES THEN THIS PIVOTS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SOME GUIDANCE IS STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE WHICH ALSO
DRIVES A BAND OF STRONGER 700-800 MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. OVERALL,
THERE LOOKS LIKE DECENT LIFT ON THE NOSE OF THE EASTERLY JET TO
PROMOTE AN AREA OF SHOWERS/RAIN THAT PIVOTS INLAND DURING FRIDAY. WE
MAY NOT SEE ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, BUT IF THERE ARE THEN ANY LOW-
TOPPED CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL GIVEN THE VERY COLD
500 MB TEMPERATURES. AS OF NOW HOWEVER, ANY INSTABILITY LOOKS MEAGER.
THE SYSTEM THEM MEANDERS OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND WHILE THERE
SHOULD BE A DECREASE IN THE SHOWER COVERAGE SOME SHOULD LINGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL SLOWING TREND IN
THE GUIDANCE WHEN COMPARING THE MANY MODELS AND ENSEMBLES. THIS
TENDS TO HAPPEN WITH BLOCKING PATTERNS AS IT TAKES LONGER FOR THE
CLOSED LOW TO OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT. THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES AT THE SURFACE ON SATURDAY WHICH LEADS TO PLENTY OF
DETAIL UNCERTAINTIES INCLUDING THE AMOUNT OF RAIN. WE THEREFORE
LEANED CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE BUT ALSO INCORPORATING SOME
CONTINUITY. THIS MEANS THAT SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE STILL UNSETTLED
WITH SOME SHOWERS STILL HANGING AROUND. THE AMOUNT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL DEPEND ON THE SHORT WAVE FORCING AROUND THE CLOSED
LOW, HOWEVER PLENTY OF COLD AIR REMAINS ALOFT WHICH WILL HELP WITH
SOME INSTABILITY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD OPEN UP AND START SHIFTING EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPSTREAM ENERGY IN THE FORM OF A TROUGH SLIDES
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS DRIVES A COLD FRONT ACROSS
OUR AREA MOSTLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS. THE AIR
ALOFT MODIFIES SOME THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEREFORE MODERATING
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESULT ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WE TRANSITION OUT OF AN OMEGA BLOCK DURING
THIS TIME FRAME, RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES. SOME GUIDANCE
HOWEVER HAS A SHORT WAVE AMPLIFYING A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST TUESDAY AS A RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. IT APPEARS THAT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH TIME, HOWEVER
ENERGY IN THE PLAINS WILL SEND A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH
TOWARD OUR AREA TUESDAY. WE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY ATTM WITH MUCH
WARMER AIR BUILDING INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

EARLY TODAY...GENERALLY IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2 TO 5 MI FOG. SHOWERS
AND DRIZZLE, ESPECIALLY KRDG/KABE/KILG/KPNE/KTTN WHICH WILL
RESULT IN PATCHY LIFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT NE WIND.

TODAY AFTER 12Z...GENERALLY IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2-5 MI IN NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/ PATCHY DRIZZLE-FOG. TIMING OF THE RAIN/DRIZZLE LESS THAN
CERTAIN.  ISOLATED THUNDER NOT IMPOSSIBLE PER NAM/GFS INSTABILITY
ALOFT, MAINLY DELMARVA OR SE PA/S NJ. NE WIND WITH A FEW GUSTS 15-20
KT VCNTY KPHL/KACY.

TONIGHT...GENERALLY IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2-5 MI IN SCT SHOWERS
DIMINISHING OR ENDING-EXITING NEWD EARLY/PATCHY DRIZZLE-FOG IN THE
WAKE OF THE NEWD SHOWER DEPARTURE. POSSIBLE LIFR CIGS. NE WIND G
15-20 KT POSSIBLE KPHL- KTTN- KACY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS PERSIST WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW
AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST. TIMES OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
AS WELL WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY OCCURRING ON FRIDAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE /LESS AT NIGHT/ WITH
THE HIGHER SPEEDS MAINLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE TO START SATURDAY,
THEN IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS
ONE SYSTEM DEPARTS ON SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
MAINLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
THEN LIGHT SOUTHWEST AT NIGHT, BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AND
INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS DURING SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WITH WIND NNJ AND SCA SNJ. MAY NEED TO ADD SCA FOR THE DE
COAST PER RECENT UPTICK IN SEAS TO NEAR 5 FT.

SST`S ARE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.


OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE FOR A
TIME THURSDAY AS ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY. A
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES DURING FRIDAY WITH A POSSIBLE
25-30 KNOT NORTHEASTERLY SURGE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF AN EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL
JET THAT LIFTS NORTHWARD FRIDAY. THE SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE 4-6
FEET MOSTLY FOR THE NEW JERSEY ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, AND THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH 22Z THURSDAY. THIS WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AGAIN, AND SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FEET
FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEREFORE THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO
BE EXPANDED SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE
WINDS TURNING SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF IT LATE SATURDAY THEN SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE SUNDAY
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT SPEEDS ARE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SEAS SHOULD ALSO BE DROPPING BELOW 5 FEET
WITH SOME HELP ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE FLOW INCREASING FROM OFFSHORE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CF ADVISORY ISSUED. GUIDANCE SUGGESTIONS OF INCREASED POSITIVE
DEPARTURES COMBINED WITH INCREASING ASTRONOMICAL EVENING TIDES,
LOWERING PRESSURE AND AN INCREASING ONSHORE WIND FAVORED AN
ADVISORY ISSUANCE. IT WILL BE MARGINAL...PROBABLY PLUS OR MINUS
.2 FT FROM THRESHOLD.

THE LONG DURATION NORTHEASTERLY FETCH COMBINED WITH A DAILY
INCREASE IN ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AS WE APPROACH THE NEW MOON FRIDAY
WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF MINOR EVENING COASTAL FLOODING.

ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE COULD/SHOULD BE SOME MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING, THURSDAY
EVENING, AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY EVENING.

FOR NOW, ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE NJ/DE COASTS AND
DELAWARE BAY FOR THIS EVENINGS HIGH TIDE.

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF REACHING A MODERATE THRESHOLD
FRIDAY EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
WE WILL BE TESTING THE SRF THIS MORNING FOR AN HOUR AROUND 630A
TO ENSURE CORRECT POSTING OF THE SRF PRODUCT FOR ITS MAY 20 530 AM
START UP.

HERE`S A SHORT USEFUL REVIEW OF RIP CURRENT SCIENCE PRODUCED BY A
PARTNERSHIP OF NWS AND OCEANS TODAY.

HTTP://OCEANTODAY.NOAA.GOV/RIPCURRENTSCIENCE/

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ012>014-020>027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ452-453.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ450-451.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG  505
SHORT TERM...DRAG 505
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 505
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 505
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...505




000
FXUS61 KLWX 040801 CCA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
401 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY EVENING. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

LONG WAVE PATTERN AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE CONUS WITH LOW DESCENDING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND RIDGE OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST TAKING
ON A CLASSIC OMEGA SHAPE (A PATTERN BLOCK). THE EAST SIDE OF THIS
BLOCK WILL BE WET WITH THE MID-ATLANTIC IN CONTINUED CLOUDINESS
THROUGH SATURDAY.

AS OF 3 AM...1004MB SFC LOW OVER NERN NC WITH ONSHORE FLOW OVER
THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC ALLOWING LOW CLOUDS TO SPREAD IN. LIGHT
RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MID-MORNING. THEN THIS
AFTERNOON ELEVATED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW AIDS
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WITH ISOLATED THUNDER OVER SWRN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

A CLOSED LOW SWINGS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN
STALLS AT LEAST INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A NOTABLY WET
STRETCH WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN. DESPITE IT HAVING ALREADY BEEN WET
RECENTLY...THERE IS A SPRING RAINFALL DEFICIT ACROSS THE AREA OF ONE
TO THREE INCHES. SO THIS SHOULD BE SEEN AS A BENEFICIAL STRETCH.

POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER IN THIS STRETCH. RAIN MAY BECOME
EXCESSIVE...PARTICULARLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPR LOW
OVER ERN KY TRANSFERS ENERGY TO A COASTAL LOW. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THIS LINE (GUIDANCE CONSENSUS CURRENTLY FEATURES THIS
CONVERGENCE ACROSS CNTRL VA) COULD ALLOW MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS FOR HOURS. THIS...WITH TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT
IN THE AREA COULD LEAD TO A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN AND
FLOODING. CURRENT SIX-HOUR FFG IS 1.5 TO 3 INCHES OVER SWRN ZONES. A
NOTE ABOUT THIS WILL BE ADDED TO THE HWO.

THE LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
PERSISTS FRIDAY. FOCUS OF RAIN SHIFTS ACROSS THE BALT-WASH METRO.
THIS LOOKS LESS INTENSE AS THE THURSDAY AREA WITH QPF AN INCH OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THE UPR CUTOFF LOW OVR THE ERN U.S. WHICH WE`VE BEEN WRITING ABT
FOR THE PAST SVRL DAYS SEEMS TO BE EARNING THE TERM "OMNIPRESENT"
AS LATEST MDLS NOW KEEP IT OVR THE MID ATLC THRU SAT...KEEPING
THE 1ST HALF OF THE WKND A CLDY COOL RAINY CONTINUATION OF WHAT
THIS WK HAS BEEN AS A WHOLE. SUPERBLEND GIVING HIGHS IN THE LM70S
SAT - THIS MAY BE A STRETCH AND WL BE DEPENDENT ON WHETHER BRKS
DVLP IN THE AFTN CLDS...AND IF BRKS DO DVLP WL RW FORM AS A
RESULT OF THE HTG IN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT?

A CD FNT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE RGN SUNDAY/UPR LVL SHORT WV
DIVE INTO THE ERN GRT LKS. THIS TOO MAY LEAD TO A CHC OF RW/ISOLD
TRW.

IT LOOKS LK WE`LL FINALLY BE ABLE TO SAY "BON VOYAGE" TO THE UPR
LOW MON...AND THE UPR RIDGE WHICH WL HV BEEN OVR THE ROCKIES FOR
MULTIPLE DAYS. SUNNIER SKIES NEXT MON AND TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OFFSHORE
AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. INTERMITTENT
IFR/MVFR CONDS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN DEVELOPS THIS
MORNING WITH PERIODIC SHOWERS THEN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDER INVOF KCHO THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LWRD CIGS AGN PSBL SAT...THEN IMPRVG CONDS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST THIS
MORNING AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. SCA MAY
BE NECESSARY AS LOW DEVELOPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL SCA ALSO INTO THIS WEEKEND AS LOW MOVES
OUT.

NO PROBS XPCTD ON THE WATERS SAT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

PROLONGED RAIN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES DIPS SOUTH TO THE CAROLINAS BEFORE STALLING OVER THE AREA. A
NOTABLE AREA OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY DEVELOP AND CAUSE PROLONGED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SHOULD THIS PERSIST
LONG ENOUGH...FLOODING MAY OCCUR.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

PRODUCTS...BAJ/WOODY!




000
FXUS61 KLWX 040759
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
359 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY EVENING. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

LONG WAVE PATTERN AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE CONUS WITH LOW DESCENDING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND RIDGE OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST TAKING
ON A CLASSIC OMEGA SHAPE (A PATTERN BLOCK). THE EAST SIDE OF THIS
BLOCK WILL BE WET WITH THE MID-ATLANTIC IN CONTINUED CLOUDINESS
THROUGH SATURDAY.

AS OF 3AM...1004MB SFC LOW OVER NERN NC WITH ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC ALLOWING LOW CLOUDS TO SPREAD IN. LIGHT RAIN
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MID-MORNING. THEN THIS
AFTERNOON ELEVATED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW AIDS
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WITH ISOLATED THUNDER OVER SWRN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

A CLOSED LOW SWINGS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN
STALLS AT LEAST INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A NOTABLY WET
STRETCH WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN. DESPITE IT HAVING ALREADY BEEN WET
RECENTLY...THERE IS A SPRING RAINFALL DEFICIT ACROSS THE AREA OF ONE
TO THREE INCHES. SO THIS SHOULD BE SEEN AS A BENEFICIAL STRETCH.

POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER IN THIS STRETCH. RAIN MAY BECOME
EXCESSIVE...PARTICULARLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPR LOW
OVER ERN KY TRANSFERS ENERGY TO A COASTAL LOW. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THIS LINE (GUIDANCE CONSENSUS CURRENTLY FEATURES THIS
CONVERGENCE ACROSS CNTRL VA) COULD ALLOW MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS FOR HOURS. THIS...WITH TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT
IN THE AREA COULD LEAD TO A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN AND
FLOODING. CURRENT SIX-HOUR FFG IS 1.5 TO 3 INCHES OVER SWRN ZONES. A
NOTE ABOUT THIS WILL BE ADDED TO THE HWO.

THE LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
PERSISTS FRIDAY. FOCUS OF RAIN SHIFTS ACROSS THE BALT-WASH METRO.
THIS LOOKS LESS INTENSE AS THE THURSDAY AREA WITH QPF AN INCH OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THE UPR CUTOFF LOW OVR THE ERN U.S. WHICH WE`VE BEEN WRITING ABT
FOR THE PAST SVRL DAYS SEEMS TO BE EARNING THE TERM "OMNIPRESENT"
AS LATEST MDLS NOW KEEP IT OVR THE MID ATLC THRU SAT...KEEPING
THE 1ST HALF OF THE WKND A CLDY COOL RAINY CONTINUATION OF WHAT
THIS WK HAS BEEN AS A WHOLE. SUPERBLEND GIVING HIGHS IN THE LM70S
SAT - THIS MAY BE A STRETCH AND WL BE DEPENDENT ON WHETHER BRKS
DVLP IN THE AFTN CLDS...AND IF BRKS DO DVLP WL RW FORM AS A
RESULT OF THE HTG IN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT?

A CD FNT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE RGN SUNDAY/UPR LVL SHORT WV
DIVE INTO THE ERN GRT LKS. THIS TOO MAY LEAD TO A CHC OF RW/ISOLD
TRW.

IT LOOKS LK WE`LL FINALLY BE ABLE TO SAY "BON VOYAGE" TO THE UPR
LOW MON...AND THE UPR RIDGE WHICH WL HV BEEN OVR THE ROCKIES FOR
MULTIPLE DAYS. SUNNIER SKIES NEXT MON AND TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OFFSHORE
AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. INTERMITTENT
IFR/MVFR CONDS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN DEVELOPS THIS
MORNING WITH PERIODIC SHOWERS THEN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDER INVOF KCHO THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LWRD CIGS AGN PSBL SAT...THEN IMPRVG CONDS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST THIS
MORNING AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. SCA MAY
BE NECESSARY AS LOW DEVELOPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL SCA ALSO INTO THIS WEEKEND AS LOW MOVES
OUT.

NO PROBS XPCTD ON THE WATERS SAT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

PRODUCTS...BAJ/WOODY!




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 040750
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
350 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH TODAY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER AIR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BE DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDWEST. THAT UPPER LOW WILL TRACK
INTO NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN BE SLOW TO
EXIT THE MID ATLANTIC REGION INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A FRONTAL BNDRY WILL RMN JUST OFF THE CST THROUGH TDA. ISOLD-SCT
SHRAS-TSTMS NOW MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF ERN VA/NE NC XPCD TO
CONT TO E THE NEXT FEW HRS. OTRW...XPCG VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDS TDA. FA WILL BE SITUATED BTWN BNDRY JUST OFF THE CST AND
STRONG UPR LVL LO PRES DIVING SSE THROUGH THE WRN LAKES INTO OH
VLY. WILL CARRY MNLY 20-40% POPS TDA (PRIMARILY FOR THIS
AFTN)...INCLUDING PSBL ISOLD TSTMS. HI TEMPS FM THE L-M60S ON THE
ERN SHORE TO THE U60S- L70S ELSW IN CNTRL/ERN VA AND L-M70S IN NE
NC..

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNSETTLED WX WILL CONT ACRS THE FA TNGT THRU FRI...AS THE UPR LVL
LO PRES TRACKS SE INTO NC (THU) THEN SITS INVOF ERN VA (FRI).
CONTD VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS THROUGH THE PD...ALG W/ BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY OR HIGHER INLAND DURING THU
AS THE LO MOVES INTO NC. NR THE CST...WILL HAVE POPS MNLY 20-40%.
WILL HAVE MNLY 40-60% POPS THU NGT/FRI. LO TEMPS TNGT IN THE
L-M50S. HI TEMPS WED WILL RANGE FM 60-70F. LO TEMPS LOWS THU NGT
WILL BE IN THE U40S TO L50S. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L-M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. POPS RANGE FROM ~20% SW TO 30% NNE FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY...FOLLOWED BY PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH POPS 20% W...30-40% E. FORECAST LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S OVER THE ERN SHORE...TO THE LOW 70S
FOR INLAND VA/NE NC. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N SATURDAY
NIGHT AND CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY. GFS/CMC REMAIN SLIGHTLY FASTER
THAN THE ECMWF...BUT THE OVERALL CONSENSUS IS FOR A SUNDAY FRONTAL
PASSAGE. MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED WITH THIS BOUNDARY...WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHC POP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHS SUNDAY RISE INTO
THE MID/UPPER 70S AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE 50S. A MID/UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO GENERALLY
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS...WITH CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S MONDAY AND MODERATING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE W LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS A DIFFUSE COLD
FRONT ACROSS SE VA SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH AND DISSIPATES ACROSS NE NC.
A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLD TSTM WILL MOVE ACROSS EXTREME SE VA
AND NE NC THRU 08Z. ONLY A VERY SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS IS
EXPECTED INTO THE AFTN...AS MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LAST FOR MOST OF
TODAY. ANY PARTIAL CLEARING (VFR CONDS) LATE THIS AFTN/EVE WILL
BE BRIEF WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING IFR CONDS RETURNING TONIGHT/EARLY
THU.

OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LOW SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH PERIODS OF IFR. THE WEEKEND IS A
TOSS UP ATTM AS TO WHETHER OR NOT IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
REALIZED.

&&

.MARINE...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG/OFF THE COAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT
AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES OVER NE NC. ANOTHER LOW THEN DEVELOPS IN
VICINITY OF THE COAST THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE AREA. THE WIND REMAINS AOB 15KT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WITH THE DIRECTION AVERAGING NE THEN N ACROSS THE NRN PORTION
OF THE MARINE AREA...TO W AND NW BECOMING NE ON THU ACROSS THE SRN
PORTION OF THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WITH NW FLOW AOB 15KT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS
SUNDAY. SEAS AVERAGE 2-4 THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 1-2 FT WAVES IN THE
BAY...TO 2-3 FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM




000
FXUS61 KPHI 040740
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
340 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONSOLIDATE OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND
THEN MOVES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1230 AM ESTF: LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE 1045 PM UPDATE FOR EARLY THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEWD INTO E MD AND E PA ATTM. TEMPS NEARLY
STEADY THROUGH DAYBREAK. LIGHT NE WIND.

AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS AND DRIZZLE, ESPECIALLY
I-95 CORRIDOR WESTWARD. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE DELMARVA OR EVEN
SE PA OR S NJ IN RESPONSE TO A POCKET OF INSTABILITY ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH A KI POOL 30+ AND TT NEAR 52 AS WELL AS A WEAK 850MB TROUGH.
QPF IS THAT FROM WPC. SHOULD BE SMALL POCKETS OF EMBEDDED .25 TO .5
INCHES TODAY, SINCE PWAT INCREASES TO ABOUT 1 INCH. NE WIND GUSTY
15-20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON I-95 CORRIDOR EASTWARD IN CYCLONIC FLOW
WITH A GRADUALLY INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT. 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/4
GFS/NAM MOS...FAVORING THE COLDER SIDE AS WE DRAW FROM THE COOLER
WET BULB RESERVOIR OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
PWAT DRIES TO 0.75 INCHES AND INSTABILITY ALOFT DECREASES BUT A CONTD
MOIST CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH PROBABLY PERIODS OF MEASURABLE DRIZZLE
AND MAYBE A FEW POCKETS OF SHOWERS. 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/4 GFS NAM
GUIDANCE. WE SEE THE SPC WRF DRIES US OUT CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT SO
POPS ARE GENERALLY 60 PCT N AND 30-40 PCT SOUTH. NE WIND GUSTY
NEAR 15 MPH... EXPECT 20-25 MPH MONMOUTH COUNTY COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN OMEGA BLOCK, THEN THIS PATTERN
IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN SOME DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW WEEKS AGO THERE WAS AN OMEGA
BLOCK IN PLACE, HOWEVER AT THAT TIME WE WERE UNDER THE RIDGE.
THIS GO AROUND WE ARE UNDER THE TROUGH PART OF THE BLOCK, KEEPING
OUR WEATHER COOLER AND UNSETTLED. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL
THEREFORE BE UNSETTLED WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT DURING THE WEEKEND,
THEN A MORE NOTABLE IMPROVEMENT ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE
USED A MODEL BLEND APPROACH FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY, THEN BLENDED
IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE
FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE OMEGA BLOCK CONTINUES WITH A STRONG
SHORT WAVE CLOSING OFF THE TROUGH AS IT TRACKS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THURSDAY. SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY
TRACKING NORTHWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LARGE TROUGH WILL TEAM UP
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE A MARINE LAYER AND PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS.
THURSDAY MORNING HOWEVER COULD ALSO START WITH SOME DRIZZLE. THE
ENTIRE TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW ARE FORECAST TO BECOME CENTERED ALONG
THE EAST COAST FRIDAY WITH THE CLOSED LOW ITSELF MOVING OVER OUR CWA
DURING FRIDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST NORTHWARD ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS TO NOT DEEPEN CONSIDERABLY. AS
THIS OCCURS, THE 500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL TO NEAR
-24C ON FRIDAY. THIS WOULD PROMOTE SOME INSTABILITY AND PERHAPS SOME
LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION, HOWEVER CLOUD COVER AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS MAY
TEMPER THIS POTENTIAL.

OTHERWISE, AN EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS FRIDAY ACROSS OUR
NORTHEASTERN ZONES THEN THIS PIVOTS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SOME GUIDANCE IS STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE WHICH ALSO
DRIVES A BAND OF STRONGER 700-800 MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. OVERALL,
THERE LOOKS LIKE DECENT LIFT ON THE NOSE OF THE EASTERLY JET TO
PROMOTE AN AREA OF SHOWERS/RAIN THAT PIVOTS INLAND DURING FRIDAY. WE
MAY NOT SEE ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, BUT IF THERE ARE THEN ANY LOW-
TOPPED CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL GIVEN THE VERY COLD
500 MB TEMPERATURES. AS OF NOW HOWEVER, ANY INSTABILITY LOOKS MEAGER.
THE SYSTEM THEM MEANDERS OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND WHILE THERE
SHOULD BE A DECREASE IN THE SHOWER COVERAGE SOME SHOULD LINGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL SLOWING TREND IN
THE GUIDANCE WHEN COMPARING THE MANY MODELS AND ENSEMBLES. THIS
TENDS TO HAPPEN WITH BLOCKING PATTERNS AS IT TAKES LONGER FOR THE
CLOSED LOW TO OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT. THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES AT THE SURFACE ON SATURDAY WHICH LEADS TO PLENTY OF
DETAIL UNCERTAINTIES INCLUDING THE AMOUNT OF RAIN. WE THEREFORE
LEANED CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE BUT ALSO INCORPORATING SOME
CONTINUITY. THIS MEANS THAT SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE STILL UNSETTLED
WITH SOME SHOWERS STILL HANGING AROUND. THE AMOUNT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL DEPEND ON THE SHORT WAVE FORCING AROUND THE CLOSED
LOW, HOWEVER PLENTY OF COLD AIR REMAINS ALOFT WHICH WILL HELP WITH
SOME INSTABILITY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD OPEN UP AND START SHIFTING EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPSTREAM ENERGY IN THE FORM OF A TROUGH SLIDES
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS DRIVES A COLD FRONT ACROSS
OUR AREA MOSTLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS. THE AIR
ALOFT MODIFIES SOME THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEREFORE MODERATING
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESULT ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WE TRANSITION OUT OF AN OMEGA BLOCK DURING
THIS TIME FRAME, RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES. SOME GUIDANCE
HOWEVER HAS A SHORT WAVE AMPLIFYING A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST TUESDAY AS A RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. IT APPEARS THAT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH TIME, HOWEVER
ENERGY IN THE PLAINS WILL SEND A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH
TOWARD OUR AREA TUESDAY. WE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY ATTM WITH MUCH
WARMER AIR BUILDING INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

EARLY TODAY...GENERALLY IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2 TO 5 MI FOG. SHOWERS
AND DRIZZLE DEVELOPING, ESPECIALLY KRDG/KABE/KILG WHICH WILL RESULT
IN PATCHY LIFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT NE WIND.

TODAY AFTER 12Z...GENERALLY IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2-5 MI IN NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/ PATCHY DRIZZLE-FOG. ISOLATED THUNDER NOT IMPOSSIBLE PER
NAM/GFS INSTABILITY ALOFT, MAINLY DELMARVA OR SE PA/S NJ. NE WIND
WITH A FEW GUSTS 15-20 KT VCNTY KPHL/KACY.

TONIGHT...GENERALLY IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2-5 MI IN SCT SHOWERS
DIMINISHING OR ENDING EARLY/PATCHY DRIZZLE-FOG. POSSIBLE LIFR
CIGS. NE WIND G 15-20 KT POSSIBLE KPHL-KTTN-KACY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS PERSIST WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW
AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST. TIMES OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
AS WELL WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY OCCURRING ON FRIDAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE /LESS AT NIGHT/ WITH
THE HIGHER SPEEDS MAINLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE TO START SATURDAY,
THEN IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS
ONE SYSTEM DEPARTS ON SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
MAINLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
THEN LIGHT SOUTHWEST AT NIGHT, BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AND
INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS DURING SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR SEAS CONTINUED. WILL BE UPGRADED TO INCLUDE WIND GUSTS
25-30KT IN THE 330 AM FORECAST FOR AT LEAST NNJ 450-451 LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SST`S ARE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

WAVES NEAR 4 FT NOW WILL STEADILY BUILD SO THAT TONIGHT THEY
SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD 5-6 FT, POSSIBLY 7 FT VCNTY 44091.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE FOR A
TIME THURSDAY AS ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY. A
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES DURING FRIDAY WITH A POSSIBLE
25-30 KNOT NORTHEASTERLY SURGE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF AN EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL
JET THAT LIFTS NORTHWARD FRIDAY. THE SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE 4-6
FEET MOSTLY FOR THE NEW JERSEY ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, AND THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH 22Z THURSDAY. THIS WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AGAIN, AND SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FEET
FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEREFORE THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO
BE EXPANDED SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE
WINDS TURNING SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF IT LATE SATURDAY THEN SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE SUNDAY
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT SPEEDS ARE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SEAS SHOULD ALSO BE DROPPING BELOW 5 FEET
WITH SOME HELP ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE FLOW INCREASING FROM OFFSHORE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A LONG DURATION NORTHEASTERLY FETCH WILL DEVELOP THRU AT LEAST
FRIDAY. IN ADDITION, ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AS WE APPROACH THE NEW MOON FRI. ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE THIS EVENING, THURSDAY EVENING, AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY
EVENING. FOR NOW, ISSUING A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE NJ/DE
COASTS AND DELAWARE BAY FOR THIS EVENINGS HIGH TIDE. THERE IS
ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF REACHING A MODERATE THRESHOLD FRIDAY
EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
WE WILL BE TESTING THE SRF THIS MORNING FOR AN HOUR AROUND 630A
TO ENSURE CORRECT POSTING OF THE SRF PRODUCT FOR ITS MAY 20 530 AM
START UP.

HERE`S A SHORT USEFUL REVIEW OF RIP CURRENT SCIENCE PRODUCED BY A
PARTNERSHIP OF NWS AND OCEANS TODAY.

HTTP://OCEANTODAY.NOAA.GOV/RIPCURRENTSCIENCE/

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ012>014-020>027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ452-453.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ450-451.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 040643
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
243 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. MAINLY DRY FRIDAY BEFORE SHOWER CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF LATER TODAY OVER THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH SHOWERS INCREASING WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY. WITH SOME INSOLATION IN THE MORNING AND HEIGHT FALLS IN
THE AFTERNOON HAVE ADDED A CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. AS CLOSED LOW
DEEPENS TONIGHT TOWARD KENTUCKY...THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL BE
UNDER DEFORMATION ZONE ON FRONT SIDE OF LOW...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COOL MID LEVEL CLOSED SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND CLOSED
LOW COMBINED WITH COLD POOL ALOFT WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY LOW MAY BECOME BECOME
MORE ELONGATED NEAR THE COAST...ALTHOUGH NEWEST LONGER RANGE
MODELS DISAGREE ON PLACEMENT AND SPEED OF LOW LIFTING OUT. HAVE
KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS INTO THE RIDGES FRIDAY WITH A DRYING TREND
ELSEWHERE. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT TO SHUNT LOW TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING BACK SHOWER CHANCES SATURDAY
WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT PUSHING TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPR TROF AND SFC BOUNDARY PASSAGE IS PROGGED ERLY IN THE PERIOD
WITH THE BEST CHCS FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...BUILDING RIDGING
SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER UNTIL AN APPROACHING UPR TROF
ADVANCES OUT OF THE MID WEST BY MID WEEK. TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL LVLS
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE AVG BY MID WEEK. THE SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE...WITH DOWNWARD MID WEEK POP ADJUSTMENT...WAS USED FOR
THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE AFTN...THOUGH APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD RESULT IN INCRG SHOWER CHCS BY AFTN FOR WHICH
A VCSH MENTION WAS MAINTAINED. BETTER CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED BY EVENING WHEN THE BEST MOISTURE AND
LIFT IS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THU/FRI WITH PERSISTENT LOW
PRESSURE...AND AGAIN WITH A SAT NGT COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 040643
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
243 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. MAINLY DRY FRIDAY BEFORE SHOWER CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF LATER TODAY OVER THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH SHOWERS INCREASING WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY. WITH SOME INSOLATION IN THE MORNING AND HEIGHT FALLS IN
THE AFTERNOON HAVE ADDED A CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. AS CLOSED LOW
DEEPENS TONIGHT TOWARD KENTUCKY...THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL BE
UNDER DEFORMATION ZONE ON FRONT SIDE OF LOW...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COOL MID LEVEL CLOSED SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND CLOSED
LOW COMBINED WITH COLD POOL ALOFT WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY LOW MAY BECOME BECOME
MORE ELONGATED NEAR THE COAST...ALTHOUGH NEWEST LONGER RANGE
MODELS DISAGREE ON PLACEMENT AND SPEED OF LOW LIFTING OUT. HAVE
KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS INTO THE RIDGES FRIDAY WITH A DRYING TREND
ELSEWHERE. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT TO SHUNT LOW TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING BACK SHOWER CHANCES SATURDAY
WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT PUSHING TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPR TROF AND SFC BOUNDARY PASSAGE IS PROGGED ERLY IN THE PERIOD
WITH THE BEST CHCS FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...BUILDING RIDGING
SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER UNTIL AN APPROACHING UPR TROF
ADVANCES OUT OF THE MID WEST BY MID WEEK. TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL LVLS
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE AVG BY MID WEEK. THE SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE...WITH DOWNWARD MID WEEK POP ADJUSTMENT...WAS USED FOR
THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE AFTN...THOUGH APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD RESULT IN INCRG SHOWER CHCS BY AFTN FOR WHICH
A VCSH MENTION WAS MAINTAINED. BETTER CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED BY EVENING WHEN THE BEST MOISTURE AND
LIFT IS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THU/FRI WITH PERSISTENT LOW
PRESSURE...AND AGAIN WITH A SAT NGT COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPHI 040627
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
227 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED TO
THE SOUTH OF OUR REGION INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE VIRGINIA CAPES THURSDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTH
ALONG THE DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY COAST, BEFORE MOVING OUT TO SEA
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ANTICIPATED
SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1230 AM ESTF: LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE 1045 PM UPDATE FOR EARLY THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEWD INTO E MD AND E PA ATTM. TEMPS NEARLY
STEADY THROUGH DAYBREAK. LIGHT NE WIND.

AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS AND DRIZZLE, ESPECIALLY
I-95 CORRIDOR WESTWARD. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE DELMARVA OR EVEN
SE PA OR S NJ IN RESPONSE TO A POCKET OF INSTABILITY ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH A KI POOL 30+ AND TT NEAR 52 AS WELL AS A WEAK 850MB TROUGH.
QPF IS THAT FROM WPC. SHOULD BE SMALL POCKETS OF EMBEDDED .25 TO .5
INCHES TODAY, SINCE PWAT INCREASES TO ABOUT 1 INCH. NE WIND GUSTY
15-20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON I-95 CORRIDOR EASTWARD IN CYCLONIC FLOW
WITH A GRADUALLY INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT. 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/4
GFS/NAM MOS...FAVORING THE COLDER SIDE AS WE DRAW FROM THE COOLER
WET BULB RESERVOIR OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
PWAT DRIES TO 0.75 INCHES AND INSTABILITY ALOFT DECREASES BUT A CONTD
MOIST CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH PROBABLY PERIODS OF MEASURABLE DRIZZLE
AND MAYBE A FEW POCKETS OF SHOWERS. 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/4 GFS NAM
GUIDANCE. WE SEE THE SPC WRF DRIES US OUT CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT SO
POPS ARE GENERALLY 60 PCT N AND 30-40 PCT SOUTH. NE WIND GUSTY
NEAR 15 MPH... EXPECT 20-25 MPH MONMOUTH COUNTY COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MID-LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH FRIDAY INCLUDE A MEAN
VORTEX NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL FAVORED NORTHERN HUDSON`S BAY WITH AN
OMEGA BLOCK SETTING UP A SPLIT FLOW OVER NOAM. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT WILL CARVE OUT A CLOSED MID-LEVEL
LOW OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC THU, WHICH WILL SLOWLY MEANDER NORTH
AND GRADUALLY FILL THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR
CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER THRU EARLY THIS WEEKEND. A STOUT
SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF HUDSON`S BAY FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WILL BREAK DOWN THE OMEGA BLOCK, AND EJECT THE
AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL LEAD TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS WEEKEND. MID-LEVEL
RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH A RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER, AND A MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH WILL MAINTAIN A COOL AND MOIST
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE WEAK SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN THE LEFT-REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
JET, MAINTAINING A WEAK OF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE,
WHICH WILL NOSE DOWN FROM THE BAY OF FUNDY. THE COLUMN WILL BE VERY
MOIST WITH WEAK STEERING CURRENTS, FAVORING LIGHT AND SPOTTY PRECIP
MAINLY WEST OF THE FALL LINE, WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT IS ENHANCED.

THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...DEEP MID-LEVEL LOW, WITH HEIGHTS OF
NEGATIVE 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS, CLOSES OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI, AND GRADUALLY FILLS, AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SAT. THE VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE LEADS TO MODEST CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE VA CAPES THU NIGHT,
AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED NEAR THE DE/NJ COAST FRI
NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING
THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW, PARTICULARLY HOW FAR SOUTH IT
DEVELOPS THU NIGHT, THEN HOW FAST IT MOVES OFFSHORE SAT. THE NAM
IS FURTHEST TO THE SOUTH THU NIGHT, WITH A GREATER PRESSURE
GRADIENT NORTHWARD INTO FRIDAY, RESULTING IN LONGER DURATION OF
GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST. FORTUNATELY, THE CONFLUENT REGION OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL JET IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LOW, WHICH SHOULD REDUCE THE
WIND POTENTIAL, I.E., LACK OF A ROBUST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY JET. THE
ECMWF MAY BE LIFTING THE LOW TOO QUICKLY NORTHEAST SATURDAY, GIVEN
THE VERTICALLY STACKED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, AND IS AN OUTLIER.

OVERALL, A WET PERIOD DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
IS ANTICIPATED JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION, WHERE THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE ALIGNS WITH THE STRONGEST PVA. WITH THE LACK OF A
ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET, AS WELL AS THE SYNOPTIC SETUP, THE HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS.
THUS, EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO INCREASE AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE,
WITH EARLY ESTIMATES UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES NORTHWEST OF I-95.
GIVEN THE DURATION OF THE RAINFALL, URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE A MAJOR ISSUE. WHILE WE HAVE NOT INSERTED
THUNDER AT THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST, MID-LEVEL COLD POOL WILL BE
OVER DELMARVA FRIDAY, WITH 500 HPA TEMPS APPROACHING -24C! MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE MODELED TO APPROACH 7C/KM, WITH MODEST ELEVATED
CAPE. IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP, THEY WOULD BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL SLOWLY MOVES
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY, CANNOT RULE OUT A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF THUNDER. WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE, WINDS
COULD GUST UP TO AROUND 30 MPH ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY...CLIPPER-TYPE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY FOLLOWING ON THE HEELS OF
THE CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO LEAD TO A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION. THE MODELS TEND TO AMPLIFY THIS SHORT-
WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF PRECIP, AS WELL AS GUSTY POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS.
A PATTERN CHANGE WILL ALSO BE UNDERWAY AT THIS TIME, SO THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW AMPLIFIED THIS FEATURE WILL BE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FAIR WEATHER DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH
TEMPERATURES AOA SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

EARLY TODAY...GENERALLY IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2 TO 5 MI FOG. SHOWERS
AND DRIZZLE DEVELOPING, ESPECIALLY KRDG/KABE/KILG WHICH WILL RESULT
IN PATCHY LIFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT NE WIND.

TODAY AFTER 12Z...GENERALLY IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2-5 MI IN NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/ PATCHY DRIZZLE-FOG. ISOLATED THUNDER NOT IMPOSSIBLE PER
NAM/GFS INSTABILITY ALOFT, MAINLY DELMARVA OR SE PA/S NJ. NE WIND
WITH A FEW GUSTS 15-20 KT VCNTY KPHL/KACY.

TONIGHT...GENERALLY IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2-5 MI IN SCT SHOWERS
DIMINISHING OR ENDING EARLY/PATCHY DRIZZLE-FOG. POSSIBLE LIFR
CIGS. NE WIND G 15-20 KT POSSIBLE KPHL-KTTN-KACY.

OUTLOOK...

OVERALL, MODERATE CONFIDENCE THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY TAF
PERIOD.

THU NIGHT AND FRI...PREDOMINANTLY MVFR IN SHRA. POCKETS OF IFR
POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY ACY AND MIV THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI.
NORTHEAST WINDS COULD GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TERMINALS ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF I-95, MAINLY FRI.

FRI NIGHT...MVFR. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF I-95.

SAT AND SUN...PREDOMINANTLY VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR SEAS CONTINUED. WILL BE UPGRADED TO INCLUDE WIND GUSTS
25-30KT IN THE 330 AM FORECAST FOR AT LEAST NNJ 450-451 LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SST`S ARE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

WAVES NEAR 4 FT NOW WILL STEADILY BUILD SO THAT TONIGHT THEY
SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD 5-6 FT, POSSIBLY 7 FT VCNTY 44091.

OUTLOOK...

A VERY PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED LATE
THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD NEAR
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE WIND
FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT A SCA IS PROBABLE, GIVEN
BUILDING SEAS IN A NORTHEAST FETCH WED NIGHT THRU FRI. A SCA IS
NOW IN EFFECT THRU 12Z THU, FOR WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR 5FT, AND WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER INTO FRI.

SATURDAY...SEAS SHOULD BE SUBSIDING, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT RESIDUAL
5FT WAVES, THUS LOW PROBABILITY SCA MAY BE NEEDED. LOW CONFIDENCE.

SUN...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH SCA
LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A LONG DURATION NORTHEASTERLY FETCH WILL DEVELOP THRU AT LEAST
FRIDAY. IN ADDITION, ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AS WE APPROACH THE NEW MOON FRI. ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE THIS EVENING, THURSDAY EVENING, AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY
EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF REACHING A MODERATE
THRESHOLD FRIDAY EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
WE WILL BE TESTING THE SRF THIS MORNING FOR AN HOUR AROUND 630A
TO ENSURE CORRECT POSTING OF THE SRF PRODUCT FOR ITS MAY 20 530 AM
START UP.

HERE`S A SHORT USEFUL REVIEW OF RIP CURRENT SCIENCE PRODUCED BY A
PARTNERSHIP OF NWS AND OCEANS TODAY.

HTTP://OCEANTODAY.NOAA.GOV/RIPCURRENTSCIENCE/

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>453.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...DRAG 226
SHORT TERM...DRAG 226
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK 226
MARINE...DRAG/FRANCK 226
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...226
RIP CURRENTS...226




000
FXUS61 KPHI 040627
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
227 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED TO
THE SOUTH OF OUR REGION INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE VIRGINIA CAPES THURSDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTH
ALONG THE DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY COAST, BEFORE MOVING OUT TO SEA
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ANTICIPATED
SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1230 AM ESTF: LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE 1045 PM UPDATE FOR EARLY THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEWD INTO E MD AND E PA ATTM. TEMPS NEARLY
STEADY THROUGH DAYBREAK. LIGHT NE WIND.

AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS AND DRIZZLE, ESPECIALLY
I-95 CORRIDOR WESTWARD. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE DELMARVA OR EVEN
SE PA OR S NJ IN RESPONSE TO A POCKET OF INSTABILITY ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH A KI POOL 30+ AND TT NEAR 52 AS WELL AS A WEAK 850MB TROUGH.
QPF IS THAT FROM WPC. SHOULD BE SMALL POCKETS OF EMBEDDED .25 TO .5
INCHES TODAY, SINCE PWAT INCREASES TO ABOUT 1 INCH. NE WIND GUSTY
15-20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON I-95 CORRIDOR EASTWARD IN CYCLONIC FLOW
WITH A GRADUALLY INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT. 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/4
GFS/NAM MOS...FAVORING THE COLDER SIDE AS WE DRAW FROM THE COOLER
WET BULB RESERVOIR OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
PWAT DRIES TO 0.75 INCHES AND INSTABILITY ALOFT DECREASES BUT A CONTD
MOIST CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH PROBABLY PERIODS OF MEASURABLE DRIZZLE
AND MAYBE A FEW POCKETS OF SHOWERS. 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/4 GFS NAM
GUIDANCE. WE SEE THE SPC WRF DRIES US OUT CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT SO
POPS ARE GENERALLY 60 PCT N AND 30-40 PCT SOUTH. NE WIND GUSTY
NEAR 15 MPH... EXPECT 20-25 MPH MONMOUTH COUNTY COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MID-LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH FRIDAY INCLUDE A MEAN
VORTEX NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL FAVORED NORTHERN HUDSON`S BAY WITH AN
OMEGA BLOCK SETTING UP A SPLIT FLOW OVER NOAM. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT WILL CARVE OUT A CLOSED MID-LEVEL
LOW OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC THU, WHICH WILL SLOWLY MEANDER NORTH
AND GRADUALLY FILL THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR
CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER THRU EARLY THIS WEEKEND. A STOUT
SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF HUDSON`S BAY FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WILL BREAK DOWN THE OMEGA BLOCK, AND EJECT THE
AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL LEAD TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS WEEKEND. MID-LEVEL
RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH A RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER, AND A MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH WILL MAINTAIN A COOL AND MOIST
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE WEAK SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN THE LEFT-REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
JET, MAINTAINING A WEAK OF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE,
WHICH WILL NOSE DOWN FROM THE BAY OF FUNDY. THE COLUMN WILL BE VERY
MOIST WITH WEAK STEERING CURRENTS, FAVORING LIGHT AND SPOTTY PRECIP
MAINLY WEST OF THE FALL LINE, WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT IS ENHANCED.

THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...DEEP MID-LEVEL LOW, WITH HEIGHTS OF
NEGATIVE 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS, CLOSES OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI, AND GRADUALLY FILLS, AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SAT. THE VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE LEADS TO MODEST CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE VA CAPES THU NIGHT,
AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED NEAR THE DE/NJ COAST FRI
NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING
THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW, PARTICULARLY HOW FAR SOUTH IT
DEVELOPS THU NIGHT, THEN HOW FAST IT MOVES OFFSHORE SAT. THE NAM
IS FURTHEST TO THE SOUTH THU NIGHT, WITH A GREATER PRESSURE
GRADIENT NORTHWARD INTO FRIDAY, RESULTING IN LONGER DURATION OF
GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST. FORTUNATELY, THE CONFLUENT REGION OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL JET IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LOW, WHICH SHOULD REDUCE THE
WIND POTENTIAL, I.E., LACK OF A ROBUST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY JET. THE
ECMWF MAY BE LIFTING THE LOW TOO QUICKLY NORTHEAST SATURDAY, GIVEN
THE VERTICALLY STACKED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, AND IS AN OUTLIER.

OVERALL, A WET PERIOD DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
IS ANTICIPATED JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION, WHERE THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE ALIGNS WITH THE STRONGEST PVA. WITH THE LACK OF A
ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET, AS WELL AS THE SYNOPTIC SETUP, THE HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS.
THUS, EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO INCREASE AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE,
WITH EARLY ESTIMATES UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES NORTHWEST OF I-95.
GIVEN THE DURATION OF THE RAINFALL, URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE A MAJOR ISSUE. WHILE WE HAVE NOT INSERTED
THUNDER AT THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST, MID-LEVEL COLD POOL WILL BE
OVER DELMARVA FRIDAY, WITH 500 HPA TEMPS APPROACHING -24C! MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE MODELED TO APPROACH 7C/KM, WITH MODEST ELEVATED
CAPE. IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP, THEY WOULD BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL SLOWLY MOVES
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY, CANNOT RULE OUT A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF THUNDER. WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE, WINDS
COULD GUST UP TO AROUND 30 MPH ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY...CLIPPER-TYPE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY FOLLOWING ON THE HEELS OF
THE CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO LEAD TO A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION. THE MODELS TEND TO AMPLIFY THIS SHORT-
WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF PRECIP, AS WELL AS GUSTY POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS.
A PATTERN CHANGE WILL ALSO BE UNDERWAY AT THIS TIME, SO THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW AMPLIFIED THIS FEATURE WILL BE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FAIR WEATHER DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH
TEMPERATURES AOA SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

EARLY TODAY...GENERALLY IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2 TO 5 MI FOG. SHOWERS
AND DRIZZLE DEVELOPING, ESPECIALLY KRDG/KABE/KILG WHICH WILL RESULT
IN PATCHY LIFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT NE WIND.

TODAY AFTER 12Z...GENERALLY IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2-5 MI IN NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/ PATCHY DRIZZLE-FOG. ISOLATED THUNDER NOT IMPOSSIBLE PER
NAM/GFS INSTABILITY ALOFT, MAINLY DELMARVA OR SE PA/S NJ. NE WIND
WITH A FEW GUSTS 15-20 KT VCNTY KPHL/KACY.

TONIGHT...GENERALLY IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2-5 MI IN SCT SHOWERS
DIMINISHING OR ENDING EARLY/PATCHY DRIZZLE-FOG. POSSIBLE LIFR
CIGS. NE WIND G 15-20 KT POSSIBLE KPHL-KTTN-KACY.

OUTLOOK...

OVERALL, MODERATE CONFIDENCE THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY TAF
PERIOD.

THU NIGHT AND FRI...PREDOMINANTLY MVFR IN SHRA. POCKETS OF IFR
POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY ACY AND MIV THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI.
NORTHEAST WINDS COULD GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TERMINALS ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF I-95, MAINLY FRI.

FRI NIGHT...MVFR. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF I-95.

SAT AND SUN...PREDOMINANTLY VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR SEAS CONTINUED. WILL BE UPGRADED TO INCLUDE WIND GUSTS
25-30KT IN THE 330 AM FORECAST FOR AT LEAST NNJ 450-451 LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SST`S ARE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

WAVES NEAR 4 FT NOW WILL STEADILY BUILD SO THAT TONIGHT THEY
SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD 5-6 FT, POSSIBLY 7 FT VCNTY 44091.

OUTLOOK...

A VERY PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED LATE
THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD NEAR
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE WIND
FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT A SCA IS PROBABLE, GIVEN
BUILDING SEAS IN A NORTHEAST FETCH WED NIGHT THRU FRI. A SCA IS
NOW IN EFFECT THRU 12Z THU, FOR WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR 5FT, AND WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER INTO FRI.

SATURDAY...SEAS SHOULD BE SUBSIDING, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT RESIDUAL
5FT WAVES, THUS LOW PROBABILITY SCA MAY BE NEEDED. LOW CONFIDENCE.

SUN...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH SCA
LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A LONG DURATION NORTHEASTERLY FETCH WILL DEVELOP THRU AT LEAST
FRIDAY. IN ADDITION, ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AS WE APPROACH THE NEW MOON FRI. ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE THIS EVENING, THURSDAY EVENING, AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY
EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF REACHING A MODERATE
THRESHOLD FRIDAY EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
WE WILL BE TESTING THE SRF THIS MORNING FOR AN HOUR AROUND 630A
TO ENSURE CORRECT POSTING OF THE SRF PRODUCT FOR ITS MAY 20 530 AM
START UP.

HERE`S A SHORT USEFUL REVIEW OF RIP CURRENT SCIENCE PRODUCED BY A
PARTNERSHIP OF NWS AND OCEANS TODAY.

HTTP://OCEANTODAY.NOAA.GOV/RIPCURRENTSCIENCE/

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>453.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...DRAG 226
SHORT TERM...DRAG 226
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK 226
MARINE...DRAG/FRANCK 226
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...226
RIP CURRENTS...226




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 040544
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
144 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WITH WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
AND TO THE COAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS AN UPPER AIR
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS LINGERING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NE NC AND EXTREME SE VA LATE THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
THE PIEDMONT INTO CENTRAL VA. THE FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR EARLIER
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAS DRIFTED INTO SE VA...WITH AN ASSOCIATED
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SRN VA INTO CENTRAL NC AND NRN SC.
THE SFC LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY PUSH TOWARD THE COAST
THRU LATE TONIGHT. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS INLAND FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS (MATCHING UP WITH NAM12 300K SFC AND HI-RES GUIDANCE) AND
LIKELY POPS THRU 1-2 AM FOR NE NC AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SKY REMAINS
MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY WITH LOWS ONLY A FEW DEGS COOLER THAN CURRENT
OBS...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNSETTLED WX WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE FA WED THRU FRI...DUE TO UPR
AIR LO PRES DROPPING FM THE GRT LKS REGION DOWN AND OVR THE MID
ATLC REGION. WILL CARRY MAINLY 20-40% POPS...FM WED AFTN THRU WED
NGT...THEN HAVE 40-60% ACRS THE REGION THU THRU FRI...AS THE UPR
LVL LO TRACKS INTO NC THEN LIFTS NWRD THRU ERN VA/DE AND INTO NEW
JERSEY. OTHERWISE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WED INTO WED
NGT...THEN GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY OR CLOUDY THU THRU FRI. HIGHS
ON WED WILL RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. LOWS WED NGT WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE LWR TO MID 50S. HIGHS ON THU AND FRI WILL RANGE THRU
THE 60S TO NEAR 70. LOWS THU NGT WILL BE IN THE UPR 40S TO LWR
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. POPS RANGE FROM ~20% SW TO 30-40% NE FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY...FOLLOWED BY PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH A 20% CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE ERN HALF OF
THE AREA. FORECAST LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S OVER THE ERN
SHORE...TO THE LOW 70S FOR INLAND VA/NE NC. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE N SATURDAY NIGHT AND CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY. GFS/CMC
REMAIN SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT THE OVERALL CONSENSUS IS
FOR A SUNDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE. MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC POP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HIGHS SUNDAY RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE
50S. A MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO GENERALLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS...WITH CURRENT FORECAST
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S MONDAY AND MODERATING INTO THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE W LATE
IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS A DIFFUSE COLD
FRONT ACROSS SE VA SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH AND DISSIPATES ACROSS NE NC.
A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLD TSTM WILL MOVE ACROSS EXTREME SE VA
AND NE NC THRU 08Z. ONLY A VERY SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS IS
EXPECTED INTO THE AFTN...AS MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LAST FOR MOST OF
TODAY. ANY PARTIAL CLEARING (VFR CONDS) LATE THIS AFTN/EVE WILL
BE BRIEF WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING IFR CONDS RETURNING TONIGHT/EARLY
THU.

OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LOW SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH PERIODS OF IFR. THE WEEKEND IS A
TOSS UP ATTM AS TO WHETHER OR NOT IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
REALIZED.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY DROPS TO NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER OVERNIGHT
WITH THE WIND BECOMING ENE 10-15KT ACROSS THE NRN BAY AND NRN
OCEAN ZONES. SEAS 2-4 FT. WAVES IN THE BAY 1-2 FT. BROAD LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE W. MEANWHILE...THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES. ANOTHER LOW THEN DEVELOPS IN VICINITY
OF THE COAST THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER SYSTEM
PASSES OVER THE AREA. THE WIND REMAINS AOB 15KT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WITH THE DIRECTION AVERAGING NE THEN N ACROSS THE NRN
PORTION OF THE MARINE AREA...TO W THEN NW ACROSS THE SRN PORTION
OF THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH NW FLOW AOB 15KT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE COAST
SUNDAY. SEAS AVERAGE 2-3 FT S...TO 3-4 FT N THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH 1-2 FT WAVES IN THE BAY...TO 2-3 FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM/TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...AJZ




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 040521
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
121 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS. IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE FOR EARLY
MAY ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MINOR OVERNIGHT CHANGES AS ONLY A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO ON RADAR
SOUTH AND WEST OF PITTSBURGH. MID DECK CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH AND
EAST FROM EASTERN OHIO TOWARD THE RIDGES. NO CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURES.

DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH SHOWERS INCREASING WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. WITH SOME INSOLATION IN THE MORNING AND HEIGHT
FALLS IN THE AFTERNOON HAVE ADDED A CHANCE OF LATE DAY THUNDER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LONGWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN...EVENTUALLY
CLOSING OFF SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. LATEST
ANOMALIES SHOW HEIGHTS AND TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CENTER
3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL WITH M CLIMATE VALUES OF
30. THEREFORE OPTED TO KEEP THE INHERITED FORECAST LARGELY
UNCHANGED WHICH UNDERCUTS ALL MOS AND BLENDED GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL
DEGREES AND LEANS MORE TOWARDS DIRECT MODEL OUTPUT. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE CLOSEST ANALOGS...AND ON AVERAGE RESULTS IN
TEMPERATURES 15 DEGREES OR SON BELOW NORMAL. WITH A RESPECTABLE
COLD POOL ALOFT...SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE ERN CONUS TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO FILL DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK...BUT MODEL WORLD IS NOT CONSISTENT IN
THE SCENARIO...EC...GFS NOW PROGGING CONTD TROUGHING FOR
SUNDAY...WHICH IS OUT OF PHASE WITH PREVIOUS SOLNS.
NEVERTHELESS...DECLINING PRECIP PROBS FROM THE WEST AND GRADUALLY
MODERATING TEMPERATURE AFTER A COLD START SHOULD DEFINE THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...FORECAST FOR WHICH WAS CONSTRUCTED VIA PERSISTENCE
AND COLLABORATIVE TWEAKS GIVEN THE OVRALL LACK OF CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE AFTN...THOUGH APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD RESULT IN INCRG SHOWER CHCS BY AFTN FOR WHICH
A VCSH MENTION WAS MAINTAINED. BETTER CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED BY EVENING WHEN THE BEST MOISTURE AND
LIFT IS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THU/FRI WITH PERSISTENT LOW
PRESSURE...AND AGAIN WITH A SAT NGT COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPHI 040516
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
116 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED TO
THE SOUTH OF OUR REGION INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE VIRGINIA CAPES THURSDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTH
ALONG THE DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY COAST, BEFORE MOVING OUT TO SEA
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ANTICIPATED
SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1230 AM ESTF: LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE 1045 PM UPDATE FOR EARLY THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEWD INTO E MD AND E PA ATTM. TEMPS
NEARLY STEADY THROUGH DAYBREAK. LIGHT NE WIND.

AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS AND DRIZZLE,
ESPECIALLY I95 CORRIDOR WESTWARD. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE
DELMARVA OR EVEN SE PA OR S NJ IN RESPONSE TO A POCKET OF INSTABILITY
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A KI POOL 30+ AND TT NEAR 52 AS WELL AS A
WEAK 850 TROUGH. QPF IS THAT FROM WPC. COULD BE POCKETS OF .25 TO
.5 INCHES TODAY, SINCE PWAT INCREASES TO ABOUT 1 INCH. NE WIND
GUSTY 15-20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON I95 CORRIDOR EASTWARD IN CYCLONIC
FLOW WITH A GRADUALLY INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT. 50 50 BLENDED
00Z/4 GFS/NAM MOS...FAVORING THE COLDER SIDE AS WE DRAW FROM THE COOLER
WET BULB RESERVOIR OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
PWAT DRIES TO 0.75 INCHES AND INSTABILITY ALOFT DECREASES SOMEWHAT
BUT A CONTD MOIST CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH PROBABLY PERIODS OF
MEASURABLE DRIZZLE AND MAYBE A FEW POCKETS OF SHOWERS. 50 50
BLENDED 00Z/4 GFS NAM GUIDANCE. MORE LATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MID-LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH FRIDAY INCLUDE A MEAN
VORTEX NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL FAVORED NORTHERN HUDSON`S BAY WITH AN
OMEGA BLOCK SETTING UP A SPLIT FLOW OVER NOAM. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT WILL CARVE OUT A CLOSED MID-LEVEL
LOW OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC THU, WHICH WILL SLOWLY MEANDER NORTH
AND GRADUALLY FILL THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR
CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER THRU EARLY THIS WEEKEND. A STOUT
SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF HUDSON`S BAY FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WILL BREAK DOWN THE OMEGA BLOCK, AND EJECT THE
AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL LEAD TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS WEEKEND. MID-LEVEL
RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH A RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER, AND A MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH WILL MAINTAIN A COOL AND MOIST
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE WEAK SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN THE LEFT-REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
JET, MAINTAINING A WEAK OF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE,
WHICH WILL NOSE DOWN FROM THE BAY OF FUNDY. THE COLUMN WILL BE VERY
MOIST WITH WEAK STEERING CURRENTS, FAVORING LIGHT AND SPOTTY PRECIP
MAINLY WEST OF THE FALL LINE, WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT IS ENHANCED.

THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...DEEP MID-LEVEL LOW, WITH HEIGHTS OF
NEGATIVE 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS, CLOSES OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI, AND GRADUALLY FILLS, AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SAT. THE VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE LEADS TO MODEST CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE VA CAPES THU NIGHT,
AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED NEAR THE DE/NJ COAST FRI
NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING
THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW, PARTICULARLY HOW FAR SOUTH IT
DEVELOPS THU NIGHT, THEN HOW FAST IT MOVES OFFSHORE SAT. THE NAM
IS FURTHEST TO THE SOUTH THU NIGHT, WITH A GREATER PRESSURE
GRADIENT NORTHWARD INTO FRIDAY, RESULTING IN LONGER DURATION OF
GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST. FORTUNATELY, THE CONFLUENT REGION OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL JET IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LOW, WHICH SHOULD REDUCE THE
WIND POTENTIAL, I.E., LACK OF A ROBUST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY JET. THE
ECMWF MAY BE LIFTING THE LOW TOO QUICKLY NORTHEAST SATURDAY, GIVEN
THE VERTICALLY STACKED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, AND IS AN OUTLIER.

OVERALL, A WET PERIOD DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
IS ANTICIPATED JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION, WHERE THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE ALIGNS WITH THE STRONGEST PVA. WITH THE LACK OF A
ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET, AS WELL AS THE SYNOPTIC SETUP, THE HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS.
THUS, EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO INCREASE AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE,
WITH EARLY ESTIMATES UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES NORTHWEST OF I-95.
GIVEN THE DURATION OF THE RAINFALL, URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE A MAJOR ISSUE. WHILE WE HAVE NOT INSERTED
THUNDER AT THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST, MID-LEVEL COLD POOL WILL BE
OVER DELMARVA FRIDAY, WITH 500 HPA TEMPS APPROACHING -24C! MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE MODELED TO APPROACH 7C/KM, WITH MODEST ELEVATED
CAPE. IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP, THEY WOULD BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL SLOWLY MOVES
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY, CANNOT RULE OUT A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF THUNDER. WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE, WINDS
COULD GUST UP TO AROUND 30 MPH ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY...CLIPPER-TYPE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY FOLLOWING ON THE HEELS OF
THE CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO LEAD TO A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION. THE MODELS TEND TO AMPLIFY THIS SHORT-
WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF PRECIP, AS WELL AS GUSTY POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS.
A PATTERN CHANGE WILL ALSO BE UNDERWAY AT THIS TIME, SO THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW AMPLIFIED THIS FEATURE WILL BE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FAIR WEATHER DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH
TEMPERATURES AOA SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

EARLY TODAY...GENERALLY IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2 TO 5 MI FOG. SHOWERS
AND DRIZZLE DEVELOPING, ESPECIALLY KRDG/KABE/KILG WHICH WILL RESULT
IN PATCHY LIFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT NE WIND.

TODAY AFTER 12Z...GENERALLY IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2-5 MI IN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ PATCHY DRIZZLE-FOG. ISOLATED THUNDER NOT
IMPOSSIBLE PER NAM/GFS INSTABILITY ALOFT, MAINLY DELMARVA OR SE
PA/S NJ. NE WIND WITH A FEW GUSTS 15-20 KT VCNTY KPHL/KACY.

TONIGHT...GENERALLY IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2-5 MI IN SCT SHOWERS/
PATCHY DRIZZLE-FOG. POSSIBLE LIFR CIGS. NE WIND G 15-20 KT
POSSIBLE KPHL-KTTN-KACY.

OUTLOOK...

OVERALL, MODERATE CONFIDENCE THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY TAF
PERIOD.

THU NIGHT AND FRI...PREDOMINANTLY MVFR IN SHRA. POCKETS OF IFR
POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY ACY AND MIV THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI.
NORTHEAST WINDS COULD GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TERMINALS ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF I-95, MAINLY FRI.

FRI NIGHT...MVFR. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF I-95.

SAT AND SUN...PREDOMINANTLY VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR SEAS CONTINUED. WILL BE UPGRADED TO INCLUDE WIND GUSTS
25-30KT IN THE 330 AM FORECAST FOR AT LEAST NNJ 450-451 LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SST`S ARE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

WAVES NEAR 4 FT NOW WILL STEADILY BUILD SO THAT TONIGHT THEY
SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD 5-6 FT, POSSIBLY 7 FT VCNTY 44091.

OUTLOOK...

A VERY PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED LATE
THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD NEAR
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE WIND
FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT A SCA IS PROBABLE, GIVEN
BUILDING SEAS IN A NORTHEAST FETCH WED NIGHT THRU FRI. A SCA IS
NOW IN EFFECT THRU 12Z THU, FOR WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR 5FT, AND WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER INTO FRI.

SATURDAY...SEAS SHOULD BE SUBSIDING, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT RESIDUAL
5FT WAVES, THUS LOW PROBABILITY SCA MAY BE NEEDED. LOW CONFIDENCE.

SUN...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH SCA
LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A LONG DURATION NORTHEASTERLY FETCH WILL DEVELOP IN THE WED THRU
AT LEAST FRI TIME FRAME. IN ADDITION, ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AS WE APPROACH THE NEW MOON FRI. ALL AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING AROUND
THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ON WEDNESDAY EVENING, THURSDAY EVENING,
AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
REACHING A MODERATE THRESHOLD FRIDAY EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW.

AS A SIDE NOTE: IT IS OUR UNDERSTANDING THAT EVENTUALLY WE WILL
BEGIN REFERENCING COASTAL FLOODING WITH RESPECT TO MHHW WHICH WILL
EQUATE TO INUNDATION DEPTH WITH RESPECT TO NORMALLY DRY GROUND.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE TRAINING REFERENCES DURING THIS SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL FLOODING REFERENCING TRANSITION FROM MLLW TO MHHW.

&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
WE WILL BE TESTING THE SRF THIS MORNING FOR AN HOUR AROUND 630A TO
ENSURE CORRECT POSTING OF THE SRF PRODUCT FOR ITS MAY 20 530 AM
START UP.

HERE`S A SHORT USEFUL REVIEW OF RIP CURRENT SCIENCE PRODUCED BY A
PARTNERSHIP OF NWS AND OCEANS TODAY.

HTTP://OCEANTODAY.NOAA.GOV/RIPCURRENTSCIENCE/

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>453.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...DRAG 115
SHORT TERM...DRAG 115
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK 115
MARINE...DRAG/FRANCK 115
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG 115




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 040410
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1210 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS. IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE FOR EARLY
MAY ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MINOR OVERNIGHT CHANGES AS ONLY A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO ON RADAR
SOUTH AND WEST OF PITTSBURGH. MID DECK CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH AND
EAST FROM EASTERN OHIO TOWARD THE RIDGES. NO CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURES.

DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH SHOWERS INCREASING WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. WITH SOME INSOLATION IN THE MORNING AND HEIGHT
FALLS IN THE AFTERNOON HAVE ADDED A CHANCE OF LATE DAY THUNDER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LONGWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN...EVENTUALLY
CLOSING OFF SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. LATEST
ANOMALIES SHOW HEIGHTS AND TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CENTER
3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL WITH M CLIMATE VALUES OF
30. THEREFORE OPTED TO KEEP THE INHERITED FORECAST LARGELY
UNCHANGED WHICH UNDERCUTS ALL MOS AND BLENDED GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL
DEGREES AND LEANS MORE TOWARDS DIRECT MODEL OUTPUT. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE CLOSEST ANALOGS...AND ON AVERAGE RESULTS IN
TEMPERATURES 15 DEGREES OR SON BELOW NORMAL. WITH A RESPECTABLE
COLD POOL ALOFT...SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE ERN CONUS TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO FILL DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK...BUT MODEL WORLD IS NOT CONSISTENT IN
THE SCENARIO...EC...GFS NOW PROGGING CONTD TROUGHING FOR
SUNDAY...WHICH IS OUT OF PHASE WITH PREVIOUS SOLNS.
NEVERTHELESS...DECLINING PRECIP PROBS FROM THE WEST AND GRADUALLY
MODERATING TEMPERATURE AFTER A COLD START SHOULD DEFINE THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...FORECAST FOR WHICH WAS CONSTRUCTED VIA PERSISTENCE
AND COLLABORATIVE TWEAKS GIVEN THE OVRALL LACK OF CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A GENERAL VFR FORECAST IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT MGW JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE. NON
RESTRICTIVE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WED THRU FRI WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT UPR TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPHI 040307
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1107 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED TO
THE SOUTH OF OUR REGION INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE VIRGINIA CAPES THURSDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTH
ALONG THE DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY COAST, BEFORE MOVING OUT TO SEA
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ANTICIPATED
SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
1045 PM ESTF: POPS INCREASED CONSIDERABLY PORTIONS E PA AND MD E
SHORE OVERNIGHT FOR ORGANIZED SHOWERY BAND DEVELOPING NEWD FROM
NORTHERN VA AND W MD... POSSIBLY IN RESPONSE TO WK INSTABILITY
BURST, INVERTED SFC TROUGH AND EMBEDDED WEAK SHORT WAVE IN THE
LARGER SCALE MAJOR TROUGH EVOLUTION AS SEEN ON WV IMAGERY. THE
POPS ADJUSTMENT IS SUPPORTED FCST BY MULTI MODELS. OVERNIGHT QPF
FCST FOR KRDG/MPO/KESN MAY BE LOW. ADDED FOG FOR THE POCONOS.
LIGHT NE WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO LIFT FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OF
VIRGINIA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING TO THE WATERS OFF DELAWARE AND
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY LATE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS AND A
NORTHEAST WIND ARE AGAIN EXPECTED IN OUR REGION

THE AREA OF SHOWERS THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT SHOULD LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND OUT OF OUR
REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRAVELING IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS
OVERHEAD DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND IT SHOULD
ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA AT
THAT TIME. POPS WERE INCREASED TO LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NJ
WITH THE EVENING ESTF UPDATE.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE
NORTHEAST WIND AND THE CLOUD COVER. HIGHS SHOULD FAVOR THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MID-LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH FRIDAY INCLUDE A MEAN
VORTEX NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL FAVORED NORTHERN HUDSON`S BAY WITH AN
OMEGA BLOCK SETTING UP A SPLIT FLOW OVER NOAM. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT WILL CARVE OUT A CLOSED MID-LEVEL
LOW OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC THU, WHICH WILL SLOWLY MEANDER NORTH
AND GRADUALLY FILL THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR
CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER THRU EARLY THIS WEEKEND. A STOUT
SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF HUDSON`S BAY FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WILL BREAK DOWN THE OMEGA BLOCK, AND EJECT THE
AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL LEAD TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS WEEKEND. MID-LEVEL
RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH A RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER, AND A MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH WILL MAINTAIN A COOL AND MOIST
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE WEAK SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN THE LEFT-REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
JET, MAINTAINING A WEAK OF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE,
WHICH WILL NOSE DOWN FROM THE BAY OF FUNDY. THE COLUMN WILL BE VERY
MOIST WITH WEAK STEERING CURRENTS, FAVORING LIGHT AND SPOTTY PRECIP
MAINLY WEST OF THE FALL LINE, WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT IS ENHANCED.

THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...DEEP MID-LEVEL LOW, WITH HEIGHTS OF
NEGATIVE 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS, CLOSES OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI, AND GRADUALLY FILLS, AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SAT. THE VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE LEADS TO MODEST CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE VA CAPES THU NIGHT,
AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED NEAR THE DE/NJ COAST FRI
NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING
THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW, PARTICULARLY HOW FAR SOUTH IT
DEVELOPS THU NIGHT, THEN HOW FAST IT MOVES OFFSHORE SAT. THE NAM
IS FURTHEST TO THE SOUTH THU NIGHT, WITH A GREATER PRESSURE
GRADIENT NORTHWARD INTO FRIDAY, RESULTING IN LONGER DURATION OF
GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST. FORTUNATELY, THE CONFLUENT REGION OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL JET IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LOW, WHICH SHOULD REDUCE THE
WIND POTENTIAL, I.E., LACK OF A ROBUST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY JET. THE
ECMWF MAY BE LIFTING THE LOW TOO QUICKLY NORTHEAST SATURDAY, GIVEN
THE VERTICALLY STACKED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, AND IS AN OUTLIER.

OVERALL, A WET PERIOD DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
IS ANTICIPATED JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION, WHERE THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE ALIGNS WITH THE STRONGEST PVA. WITH THE LACK OF A
ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET, AS WELL AS THE SYNOPTIC SETUP, THE HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS.
THUS, EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO INCREASE AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE,
WITH EARLY ESTIMATES UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES NORTHWEST OF I-95.
GIVEN THE DURATION OF THE RAINFALL, URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE A MAJOR ISSUE. WHILE WE HAVE NOT INSERTED
THUNDER AT THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST, MID-LEVEL COLD POOL WILL BE
OVER DELMARVA FRIDAY, WITH 500 HPA TEMPS APPROACHING -24C! MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE MODELED TO APPROACH 7C/KM, WITH MODEST ELEVATED
CAPE. IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP, THEY WOULD BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL SLOWLY MOVES
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY, CANNOT RULE OUT A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF THUNDER. WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE, WINDS
COULD GUST UP TO AROUND 30 MPH ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY...CLIPPER-TYPE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY FOLLOWING ON THE HEELS OF
THE CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO LEAD TO A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION. THE MODELS TEND TO AMPLIFY THIS SHORT-
WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF PRECIP, AS WELL AS GUSTY POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS.
A PATTERN CHANGE WILL ALSO BE UNDERWAY AT THIS TIME, SO THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW AMPLIFIED THIS FEATURE WILL BE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FAIR WEATHER DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH
TEMPERATURES AOA SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2 TO 5 MI FOG. SHOWERS
AND DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP LATE, ESPECIALLY KRDG/KABE/KILG WITH MAY
RESULT IN PATCHY LIFR. LIGHT NE WIND.

WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2-5 MI IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS/
PATCHY DRIZZLE-FOG. ISOLATED THUNDER NOT IMPOSSIBLE PER NAM INSTABILITY
ALOFT. NE WIND WITH A FEW GUSTS 15-20 KT VCNTY KPHL/KACY.

OUTLOOK...

OVERALL, MODERATE CONFIDENCE THU NIGHT THRU SUN TAF PERIOD.

THU NIGHT AND FRI...PREDOMINANTLY MVFR IN SHRA. POCKETS OF IFR
POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY ACY AND MIV THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI.
NORTHEAST WINDS COULD GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TERMINALS ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF I-95, MAINLY FRI.

FRI NIGHT...MVFR. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF I-95.

SAT AND SUN...PREDOMINANTLY VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR SEAS CONTINUED. MAY BE UPGRADED TO INCLUDE WIND IN THE 330
AM WEDNESDAY FORECAST FOR NNJ 450-451.

THE SURFACE PATTERN WITH LOW PRESSURE REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON OUR COASTAL WATERS FOR
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO
STAY BELOW 25 KNOTS, WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS, WHICH ARE
3 TO 4 FT THIS EVENING, MAY BUILD TO 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY ON THE
WATERS OFF NEW JERSEY ON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY
HOOK TO CAPE MAY. IT BEGINS AT 900 AM WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
A VERY PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WED NIGHT THRU SAT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD
NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT A SCA IS PROBABLE,
GIVEN BUILDING SEAS IN A NORTHEAST FETCH WED NIGHT THRU FRI. A SCA
IS NOW IN EFFECT THRU 12Z THU, FOR WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR 5FT, AND WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER INTO FRI.

SATURDAY...SEAS SHOULD BE SUBSIDING, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT RESIDUAL
5FT WAVES, THUS LOW PROBABILITY SCA MAY BE NEEDED. LOW CONFIDENCE.

SUN...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH SCA
LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A LONG DURATION NORTHEASTERLY FETCH WILL DEVELOP IN THE WED THRU
AT LEAST FRI TIME FRAME. IN ADDITION, ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AS WE APPROACH THE NEW MOON FRI. ALL AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING AROUND
THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ON WEDNESDAY EVENING, THURSDAY EVENING,
AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
REACHING A MODERATE THRESHOLD FRIDAY EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW.

AS A SIDE NOTE: IT IS OUR UNDERSTANDING THAT EVENTUALLY WE WILL
BEGIN REFERENCING COASTAL FLOODING WITH RESPECT TO MHHW WHICH WILL
EQUATE TO INUNDATION DEPTH WITH RESPECT TO NORMALLY DRY GROUND.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE TRAINING REFERENCES DURING THIS SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL FLOODING REFERENCING TRANSITION FROM MLLW TO MHHW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO
     8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>453.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...DRAG/KLEIN 1107
SHORT TERM...IOVINO/KLEIN
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK/KLEIN 1107
MARINE...DRAG/FRANCK/IOVINO 1107
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 040233
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1033 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WITH WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
AND TO THE COAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS AN UPPER AIR
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS LINGERING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NE NC AND EXTREME SE VA LATE THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
THE PIEDMONT INTO CENTRAL VA. THE FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR EARLIER
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAS DRIFTED INTO SE VA...WITH AN ASSOCIATED
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SRN VA INTO CENTRAL NC AND NRN SC.
THE SFC LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY PUSH TOWARD THE COAST
THRU LATE TONIGHT. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS INLAND FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS (MATCHING UP WITH NAM12 300K SFC AND HI-RES GUIDANCE) AND
LIKELY POPS THRU 1-2 AM FOR NE NC AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SKY REMAINS
MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY WITH LOWS ONLY A FEW DEGS COOLER THAN CURRENT
OBS...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNSETTLED WX WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE FA WED THRU FRI...DUE TO UPR
AIR LO PRES DROPPING FM THE GRT LKS REGION DOWN AND OVR THE MID
ATLC REGION. WILL CARRY MAINLY 20-40% POPS...FM WED AFTN THRU WED
NGT...THEN HAVE 40-60% ACRS THE REGION THU THRU FRI...AS THE UPR
LVL LO TRACKS INTO NC THEN LIFTS NWRD THRU ERN VA/DE AND INTO NEW
JERSEY. OTHERWISE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WED INTO WED
NGT...THEN GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY OR CLOUDY THU THRU FRI. HIGHS
ON WED WILL RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. LOWS WED NGT WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE LWR TO MID 50S. HIGHS ON THU AND FRI WILL RANGE THRU
THE 60S TO NEAR 70. LOWS THU NGT WILL BE IN THE UPR 40S TO LWR
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. POPS RANGE FROM ~20% SW TO 30-40% NE FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY...FOLLOWED BY PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH A 20% CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE ERN HALF OF
THE AREA. FORECAST LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S OVER THE ERN
SHORE...TO THE LOW 70S FOR INLAND VA/NE NC. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE N SATURDAY NIGHT AND CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY. GFS/CMC
REMAIN SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT THE OVERALL CONSENSUS IS
FOR A SUNDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE. MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC POP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HIGHS SUNDAY RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE
50S. A MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO GENERALLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS...WITH CURRENT FORECAST
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S MONDAY AND MODERATING INTO THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE W LATE
IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED FROM JUST S OF RIC AND MOVG SLOWLY SE.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES EXCEPT AT SBY WHERE IFR
CONDITIONS HAVE PERSISTED ALL DAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OCCURRED ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTN AND EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE
AGAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

WIDESPREAD IFR IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH ONLY SLOW
IMPROVEMENT INTO THE AFTN. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF
THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LOW SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH PERIODS OF IFR. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PULLS SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST
WITH AN IMPROVING TREND IN AVIATION CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
A RATHER DIFFUSE COLD FRONT IS GRADUALLY DROPPING INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION THIS AFTN. THE WIND REMAINS SW AOB 10KT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...AND IS NORTHERLY AOB 10KT ON THE COOL-SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY. THE FRONT GRADUALLY DROPS TO NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER
OVERNIGHT WITH THE WIND BECOMING ENE 10-15KT ACROSS THE NRN BAY AND
NRN OCEAN ZONES. SEAS AVERAGE 2-3FT THIS AFTN...AND BUILD TO 3-4 FT
N OF CHINCOTEAGUE LATER TONIGHT. WAVES IN THE BAY GENERALLY
AVERAGE 1-2 FT. BROAD LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE W. MEANWHILE...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES. ANOTHER
LOW THEN DEVELOPS IN VICINITY OF THE COAST THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE AREA. THE WIND REMAINS
AOB 15KT THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE DIRECTION AVERAGING NE THEN
N ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE MARINE AREA...TO W THEN NW ACROSS
THE SRN PORTION OF THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH NW FLOW AOB 15KT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE COAST SUNDAY. SEAS AVERAGE 2-3 FT S...TO 3-4 FT N THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH 1-2 FT WAVES IN THE BAY...TO 2-3 FT AT THE MOUTH OF
THE BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM/TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...JEF/LSA
MARINE...AJZ




000
FXUS61 KPHI 040127
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
927 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED TO
THE SOUTH OF OUR REGION INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE VIRGINIA CAPES THURSDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTH
ALONG THE DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY COAST, BEFORE MOVING OUT TO SEA
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ANTICIPATED
SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WAS POSITIONED TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS NC
AND SOUTHEASTERN VA, EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD FAR SOUTHERN
DELMARVA AND THEN OFF THE COAST. 00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STARTING TO FORM ALONG THIS BOUNDARY NEAR
THE VA-NC BORDER. MEANWHILE, THE RIDGE AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA EXTENDED DOWN
TOWARD THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN SITUATED IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY, PROMOTING THE CONTINUATION OF
WIDESPREAD STRATUS. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE STRONG CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPED WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY THIS AFTERNOON QUICKLY
WEAKENED AS IT MOVED EASTWARD THIS EVENING INTO THE STABLE MARINE
LAYER RESIDING OVER THE AREA. LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH OUR CENTRAL
DELMARVA ZONES THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, EXPECT THE EVENING TO BE
MAINLY DRY (IN TERMS OF MEASURABLE PRECIP) ACROSS THE AREA BUT
PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY BACKED OUT OF THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AS THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFIES UPSTREAM OF
US OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL HELP STEER THE SHOWERS THAT ARE
CURRENTLY OVER THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY TOWARD OUR REGION. ADJUSTED
HOURLY POPS/WX GRIDS TO TRY AND BETTER TIME THE OVERNIGHT ARRIVAL
OF THESE SHOWERS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
COULD EVEN INCREASE TOWARD EARLY MORNING SINCE BACKING FLOW WOULD
ENHANCE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT. ACCORDINGLY,
POPS WERE RAISED LATE IN THE PERIOD ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO LIFT FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OF
VIRGINIA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING TO THE WATERS OFF DELAWARE AND
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY LATE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS AND A
NORTHEAST WIND ARE AGAIN EXPECTED IN OUR REGION

THE AREA OF SHOWERS THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT SHOULD LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND OUT OF OUR
REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRAVELING IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS
OVERHEAD DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND IT SHOULD
ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA AT
THAT TIME. POPS WERE INCREASED TO LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NJ
WITH THE EVENING ESTF UPDATE.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE
NORTHEAST WIND AND THE CLOUD COVER. HIGHS SHOULD FAVOR THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MID-LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH FRIDAY INCLUDE A MEAN
VORTEX NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL FAVORED NORTHERN HUDSON`S BAY WITH AN
OMEGA BLOCK SETTING UP A SPLIT FLOW OVER NOAM. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT WILL CARVE OUT A CLOSED MID-LEVEL
LOW OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC THU, WHICH WILL SLOWLY MEANDER NORTH
AND GRADUALLY FILL THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR
CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER THRU EARLY THIS WEEKEND. A STOUT
SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF HUDSON`S BAY FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WILL BREAK DOWN THE OMEGA BLOCK, AND EJECT THE
AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL LEAD TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS WEEKEND. MID-LEVEL
RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH A RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER, AND A MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH WILL MAINTAIN A COOL AND MOIST
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE WEAK SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN THE LEFT-REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
JET, MAINTAINING A WEAK OF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE,
WHICH WILL NOSE DOWN FROM THE BAY OF FUNDY. THE COLUMN WILL BE VERY
MOIST WITH WEAK STEERING CURRENTS, FAVORING LIGHT AND SPOTTY PRECIP
MAINLY WEST OF THE FALL LINE, WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT IS ENHANCED.

THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...DEEP MID-LEVEL LOW, WITH HEIGHTS OF
NEGATIVE 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS, CLOSES OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI, AND GRADUALLY FILLS, AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SAT. THE VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE LEADS TO MODEST CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE VA CAPES THU NIGHT,
AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED NEAR THE DE/NJ COAST FRI
NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING
THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW, PARTICULARLY HOW FAR SOUTH IT
DEVELOPS THU NIGHT, THEN HOW FAST IT MOVES OFFSHORE SAT. THE NAM
IS FURTHEST TO THE SOUTH THU NIGHT, WITH A GREATER PRESSURE
GRADIENT NORTHWARD INTO FRIDAY, RESULTING IN LONGER DURATION OF
GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST. FORTUNATELY, THE CONFLUENT REGION OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL JET IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LOW, WHICH SHOULD REDUCE THE
WIND POTENTIAL, I.E., LACK OF A ROBUST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY JET. THE
ECMWF MAY BE LIFTING THE LOW TOO QUICKLY NORTHEAST SATURDAY, GIVEN
THE VERTICALLY STACKED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, AND IS AN OUTLIER.

OVERALL, A WET PERIOD DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
IS ANTICIPATED JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION, WHERE THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE ALIGNS WITH THE STRONGEST PVA. WITH THE LACK OF A
ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET, AS WELL AS THE SYNOPTIC SETUP, THE HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS.
THUS, EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO INCREASE AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE,
WITH EARLY ESTIMATES UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES NORTHWEST OF I-95.
GIVEN THE DURATION OF THE RAINFALL, URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE A MAJOR ISSUE. WHILE WE HAVE NOT INSERTED
THUNDER AT THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST, MID-LEVEL COLD POOL WILL BE
OVER DELMARVA FRIDAY, WITH 500 HPA TEMPS APPROACHING -24C! MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE MODELED TO APPROACH 7C/KM, WITH MODEST ELEVATED
CAPE. IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP, THEY WOULD BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL SLOWLY MOVES
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY, CANNOT RULE OUT A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF THUNDER. WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE, WINDS
COULD GUST UP TO AROUND 30 MPH ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY...CLIPPER-TYPE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY FOLLOWING ON THE HEELS OF
THE CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO LEAD TO A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION. THE MODELS TEND TO AMPLIFY THIS SHORT-
WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF PRECIP, AS WELL AS GUSTY POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS.
A PATTERN CHANGE WILL ALSO BE UNDERWAY AT THIS TIME, SO THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW AMPLIFIED THIS FEATURE WILL BE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FAIR WEATHER DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH
TEMPERATURES AOA SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

STRATUS DECK WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. CIGS DID IMPROVE TO
MVFR AT RDG/PNE/PHL/ILG BUT REMAINED IFR ELSEWHERE. WHERE IT IS
CURRENTLY MVFR, CIGS SHOULD LOWER TO IFR BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
EXCEPT MAYBE AT RDG. LIKEWISE, IFR CIGS SHOULD LOWER TO LIFR LATER
TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS AND SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AS
WELL, BUT THE GREATER IMPACT ON AVIATION WILL BE THE LOW CLOUDS.

LOW CLOUDS AND IFR CIGS MAY LAST EVEN LONGER INTO THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY THAN THEY GENERALLY DID TODAY AS MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE INVERSION THAT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR PREVENTING THE LOW
CLOUDS FROM MIXING OUT WILL STRENGTHEN. ADDITIONALLY, SCT TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAYTIME.

OUTLOOK...
OVERALL, MODERATE CONFIDENCE THU NIGHT THRU SUN TAF PERIOD.

THU NIGHT AND FRI...PREDOMINANTLY MVFR IN SHRA. POCKETS OF IFR
POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY ACY AND MIV THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI.
NORTHEAST WINDS COULD GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TERMINALS ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF I-95, MAINLY FRI.

FRI NIGHT...MVFR. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF I-95.

SAT AND SUN...PREDOMINANTLY VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SURFACE PATTERN WITH LOW PRESSURE REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON OUR COASTAL WATERS FOR
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO
STAY BELOW 25 KNOTS, WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS, WHICH ARE
3 TO 4 FT THIS EVENING, MAY BUILD TO 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY ON THE
WATERS OFF NEW JERSEY ON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY
HOOK TO CAPE MAY. IT BEGINS AT 900 AM WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
A VERY PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WED NIGHT THRU SAT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD
NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT A SCA IS PROBABLE,
GIVEN BUILDING SEAS IN A NORTHEAST FETCH WED NIGHT THRU FRI. A SCA
IS NOW IN EFFECT THRU 12Z THU, FOR WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR 5FT, AND WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER INTO FRI.

SATURDAY...SEAS SHOULD BE SUBSIDING, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT RESIDUAL
5FT WAVES, THUS LOW PROBABILITY SCA MAY BE NEEDED. LOW CONFIDENCE.

SUN...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH SCA
LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A LONG DURATION NORTHEASTERLY FETCH WILL DEVELOP IN THE WED THRU
AT LEAST FRI TIME FRAME. IN ADDITION, ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AS WE APPROACH THE NEW MOON FRI. ALL AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING AROUND
THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ON WEDNESDAY EVENING, THURSDAY EVENING,
AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
REACHING A MODERATE THRESHOLD FRIDAY EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW.

AS A SIDE NOTE: IT IS OUR UNDERSTANDING THAT EVENTUALLY WE WILL
BEGIN REFERENCING COASTAL FLOODING WITH RESPECT TO MHHW WHICH WILL
EQUATE TO INUNDATION DEPTH WITH RESPECT TO NORMALLY DRY GROUND.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE TRAINING REFERENCES DURING THE TRANSITION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO
     8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>453.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...IOVINO/KLEIN
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/KLEIN
MARINE...FRANCK/IOVINO/KLEIN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KLWX 040118
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
918 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROF WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
THIS EVENING. CALM TO LIGHT N-NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
AN AXIS OF 100-500 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND 30-35KTS EFF SHEAR IS
LOCATED NEAR THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY/BLUE RIDGE MTNS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED THIS EVENING AND SOME HAVE PRODUCED PEA
SIZE HAIL. AS THE ACTIVITY MOVES EASTWARD...LOSS OF INSTABILITY
AND WIND WILL CAUSE CONVECTION TO WANE TO SHOWERS AS THEY MOVE
EAST TOWARDS THE METROS. SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOW CEILINGS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WEDNESDAY. THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND CENTRAL FOOTHILLS WILL LIKELY SEE CLEARING
BY AFTERNOON WHERE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE STAYS CLOUDY FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. A DEEP TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE MID- ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY.
A SFC TROUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID- ATLANTIC TO OHIO
VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE MTNS WHERE MORE HEATING DUE TO CLEARING IS
EXPECTED. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION. COLD
500 MB TEMPS WILL SPREAD INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SHORTWAVE-TROUGH OVER THE WRN GREAT LKS WILL DIG INTO THE OH
VALLEY WED AND FORM A DEEP CLOSED LOW ALOFT. LARGE SCALE LIFT
INCREASES OVER THE AREA WED NIGHT WITH RAIN DEVELOPING NORTH OF
THE H5 LOW TRACK. A SWATH OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN APPEARS LIKELY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MTNS WHERE MODELS SHOW A
CONVERGENT UPSLOPE NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW SETTING UP. THIS
APPEARS A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MDT RAINS WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME
FLOODING ISSUES GIVEN INCREASINGLY SOGGY CONDITIONS AND VERY SLOW
MOVEMENT OF PRECIP AREA. WE`LL NEED TO MONITOR RAINFALL TOTALS
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MEANDER ABOUT THE NEW JERSEY COAST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL EXIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL.

AS THE DISTURBANCE WEAKENS AND SLIDES SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH...A
BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE TEMPORARILY DRY BEFORE THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION. THE RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.

THE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LINGER SUNDAY AND IN THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AND AFFILIATED DISTURBANCE NEARBY.

THE FRONT WILL TRY TO MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING BACK THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR A
THUNDERSTORM. THE BIGGER THREAT WILL BE TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHRA EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD THIS EVENING. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
EXPECTED IN HEAVIER SHRA HOWEVER ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES E TOWARDS DCA-BWI-MTN. IFR CIGS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NE TONIGHT. MVFR VSBYS ALSO EXPECTED INTO WED MORNING.

IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS LOW CIGS SLOWLY ERODE FROM S
TO N... SHRA EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON WITH VCTS EXPECTED AT MRB/CHO.
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN TS. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS FRIDAY. WINDS
NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
E-NE WINDS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A BRIEF
SURGE IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC. WINDS
SHOULD RELAX WEDNESDAY AND BECOME LESS THAN 10 KTS. THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY FRIDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS.


.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ531>534-
     537>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...HAS/KLW
MARINE...HAS/KLW




000
FXUS61 KLWX 040118
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
918 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROF WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
THIS EVENING. CALM TO LIGHT N-NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
AN AXIS OF 100-500 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND 30-35KTS EFF SHEAR IS
LOCATED NEAR THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY/BLUE RIDGE MTNS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED THIS EVENING AND SOME HAVE PRODUCED PEA
SIZE HAIL. AS THE ACTIVITY MOVES EASTWARD...LOSS OF INSTABILITY
AND WIND WILL CAUSE CONVECTION TO WANE TO SHOWERS AS THEY MOVE
EAST TOWARDS THE METROS. SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOW CEILINGS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WEDNESDAY. THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND CENTRAL FOOTHILLS WILL LIKELY SEE CLEARING
BY AFTERNOON WHERE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE STAYS CLOUDY FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. A DEEP TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE MID- ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY.
A SFC TROUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID- ATLANTIC TO OHIO
VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE MTNS WHERE MORE HEATING DUE TO CLEARING IS
EXPECTED. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION. COLD
500 MB TEMPS WILL SPREAD INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SHORTWAVE-TROUGH OVER THE WRN GREAT LKS WILL DIG INTO THE OH
VALLEY WED AND FORM A DEEP CLOSED LOW ALOFT. LARGE SCALE LIFT
INCREASES OVER THE AREA WED NIGHT WITH RAIN DEVELOPING NORTH OF
THE H5 LOW TRACK. A SWATH OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN APPEARS LIKELY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MTNS WHERE MODELS SHOW A
CONVERGENT UPSLOPE NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW SETTING UP. THIS
APPEARS A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MDT RAINS WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME
FLOODING ISSUES GIVEN INCREASINGLY SOGGY CONDITIONS AND VERY SLOW
MOVEMENT OF PRECIP AREA. WE`LL NEED TO MONITOR RAINFALL TOTALS
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MEANDER ABOUT THE NEW JERSEY COAST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL EXIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL.

AS THE DISTURBANCE WEAKENS AND SLIDES SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH...A
BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE TEMPORARILY DRY BEFORE THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION. THE RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.

THE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LINGER SUNDAY AND IN THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AND AFFILIATED DISTURBANCE NEARBY.

THE FRONT WILL TRY TO MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING BACK THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR A
THUNDERSTORM. THE BIGGER THREAT WILL BE TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHRA EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD THIS EVENING. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
EXPECTED IN HEAVIER SHRA HOWEVER ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES E TOWARDS DCA-BWI-MTN. IFR CIGS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NE TONIGHT. MVFR VSBYS ALSO EXPECTED INTO WED MORNING.

IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS LOW CIGS SLOWLY ERODE FROM S
TO N... SHRA EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON WITH VCTS EXPECTED AT MRB/CHO.
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN TS. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS FRIDAY. WINDS
NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
E-NE WINDS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A BRIEF
SURGE IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC. WINDS
SHOULD RELAX WEDNESDAY AND BECOME LESS THAN 10 KTS. THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY FRIDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS.


.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ531>534-
     537>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...HAS/KLW
MARINE...HAS/KLW




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 040109
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
909 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WITH WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
AND TO THE COAST THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS AN UPPER AIR
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATE THIS AFTN...LATEST RDR SHOWED A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS EXTENDING FM NEAR D.C. SW TO JUST W OF FARMVILLE...THEN
CONTINUED TO DANVILLE. ELSEWHERE...ISLTD SHOWERS WERE OVR SE VA
AND NE NC. WILL HAVE 40-60% POPS INTO TNGT...AS THE BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS...AND POSSIBLY OTHER DEVELOPING SHOWERS/TSTMS IN
ADVANCE OF THIS LINE...MOVE EWRD THRU THE CWA. BEST (MARGINAL)
INSTABILITY WILL BE ACRS EXTRM SRN VA AND NE NC...AND THIS AREA
REMAINS IN A SLGT RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE
DAMAGING WNDS/HAIL. OTHERWISE...ANY STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. POPS DECREASE TO 20-40% FM WSW TO
NE LATE TNGT INTO WED MORNG...AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE CST.
LOWS TNGT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO ARND 60...UNDER A
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNSETTLED WX WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE FA WED THRU FRI...DUE TO UPR
AIR LO PRES DROPPING FM THE GRT LKS REGION DOWN AND OVR THE MID
ATLC REGION. WILL CARRY MAINLY 20-40% POPS...FM WED AFTN THRU WED
NGT...THEN HAVE 40-60% ACRS THE REGION THU THRU FRI...AS THE UPR
LVL LO TRACKS INTO NC THEN LIFTS NWRD THRU ERN VA/DE AND INTO NEW
JERSEY. OTHERWISE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WED INTO WED
NGT...THEN GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY OR CLOUDY THU THRU FRI. HIGHS
ON WED WILL RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. LOWS WED NGT WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE LWR TO MID 50S. HIGHS ON THU AND FRI WILL RANGE THRU
THE 60S TO NEAR 70. LOWS THU NGT WILL BE IN THE UPR 40S TO LWR
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. POPS RANGE FROM ~20% SW TO 30-40% NE FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY...FOLLOWED BY PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH A 20% CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE ERN HALF OF
THE AREA. FORECAST LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S OVER THE ERN
SHORE...TO THE LOW 70S FOR INLAND VA/NE NC. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE N SATURDAY NIGHT AND CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY. GFS/CMC
REMAIN SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT THE OVERALL CONSENSUS IS
FOR A SUNDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE. MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC POP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HIGHS SUNDAY RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE
50S. A MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO GENERALLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS...WITH CURRENT FORECAST
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S MONDAY AND MODERATING INTO THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE W LATE
IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED FROM JUST S OF RIC AND MOVG SLOWLY SE.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES EXCEPT AT SBY WHERE IFR
CONDITIONS HAVE PERSISTED ALL DAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OCCURRED ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTN AND EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE
AGAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

WIDESPREAD IFR IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH ONLY SLOW
IMPROVEMENT INTO THE AFTN. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF
THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LOW SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH PERIODS OF IFR. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PULLS SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST
WITH AN IMPROVING TREND IN AVIATION CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
A RATHER DIFFUSE COLD FRONT IS GRADUALLY DROPPING INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION THIS AFTN. THE WIND REMAINS SW AOB 10KT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...AND IS NORTHERLY AOB 10KT ON THE COOL-SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY. THE FRONT GRADUALLY DROPS TO NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER
OVERNIGHT WITH THE WIND BECOMING ENE 10-15KT ACROSS THE NRN BAY AND
NRN OCEAN ZONES. SEAS AVERAGE 2-3FT THIS AFTN...AND BUILD TO 3-4 FT
N OF CHINCOTEAGUE LATER TONIGHT. WAVES IN THE BAY GENERALLY
AVERAGE 1-2 FT. BROAD LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE W. MEANWHILE...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES. ANOTHER
LOW THEN DEVELOPS IN VICINITY OF THE COAST THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE AREA. THE WIND REMAINS
AOB 15KT THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE DIRECTION AVERAGING NE THEN
N ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE MARINE AREA...TO W THEN NW ACROSS
THE SRN PORTION OF THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH NW FLOW AOB 15KT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE COAST SUNDAY. SEAS AVERAGE 2-3 FT S...TO 3-4 FT N THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH 1-2 FT WAVES IN THE BAY...TO 2-3 FT AT THE MOUTH OF
THE BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...JEF/LSA
MARINE...AJZ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 040109
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
909 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WITH WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
AND TO THE COAST THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS AN UPPER AIR
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATE THIS AFTN...LATEST RDR SHOWED A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS EXTENDING FM NEAR D.C. SW TO JUST W OF FARMVILLE...THEN
CONTINUED TO DANVILLE. ELSEWHERE...ISLTD SHOWERS WERE OVR SE VA
AND NE NC. WILL HAVE 40-60% POPS INTO TNGT...AS THE BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS...AND POSSIBLY OTHER DEVELOPING SHOWERS/TSTMS IN
ADVANCE OF THIS LINE...MOVE EWRD THRU THE CWA. BEST (MARGINAL)
INSTABILITY WILL BE ACRS EXTRM SRN VA AND NE NC...AND THIS AREA
REMAINS IN A SLGT RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE
DAMAGING WNDS/HAIL. OTHERWISE...ANY STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. POPS DECREASE TO 20-40% FM WSW TO
NE LATE TNGT INTO WED MORNG...AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE CST.
LOWS TNGT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO ARND 60...UNDER A
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNSETTLED WX WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE FA WED THRU FRI...DUE TO UPR
AIR LO PRES DROPPING FM THE GRT LKS REGION DOWN AND OVR THE MID
ATLC REGION. WILL CARRY MAINLY 20-40% POPS...FM WED AFTN THRU WED
NGT...THEN HAVE 40-60% ACRS THE REGION THU THRU FRI...AS THE UPR
LVL LO TRACKS INTO NC THEN LIFTS NWRD THRU ERN VA/DE AND INTO NEW
JERSEY. OTHERWISE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WED INTO WED
NGT...THEN GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY OR CLOUDY THU THRU FRI. HIGHS
ON WED WILL RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. LOWS WED NGT WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE LWR TO MID 50S. HIGHS ON THU AND FRI WILL RANGE THRU
THE 60S TO NEAR 70. LOWS THU NGT WILL BE IN THE UPR 40S TO LWR
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. POPS RANGE FROM ~20% SW TO 30-40% NE FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY...FOLLOWED BY PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH A 20% CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE ERN HALF OF
THE AREA. FORECAST LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S OVER THE ERN
SHORE...TO THE LOW 70S FOR INLAND VA/NE NC. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE N SATURDAY NIGHT AND CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY. GFS/CMC
REMAIN SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT THE OVERALL CONSENSUS IS
FOR A SUNDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE. MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC POP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HIGHS SUNDAY RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE
50S. A MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO GENERALLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS...WITH CURRENT FORECAST
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S MONDAY AND MODERATING INTO THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE W LATE
IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED FROM JUST S OF RIC AND MOVG SLOWLY SE.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES EXCEPT AT SBY WHERE IFR
CONDITIONS HAVE PERSISTED ALL DAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OCCURRED ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTN AND EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE
AGAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

WIDESPREAD IFR IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH ONLY SLOW
IMPROVEMENT INTO THE AFTN. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF
THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LOW SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH PERIODS OF IFR. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PULLS SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST
WITH AN IMPROVING TREND IN AVIATION CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
A RATHER DIFFUSE COLD FRONT IS GRADUALLY DROPPING INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION THIS AFTN. THE WIND REMAINS SW AOB 10KT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...AND IS NORTHERLY AOB 10KT ON THE COOL-SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY. THE FRONT GRADUALLY DROPS TO NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER
OVERNIGHT WITH THE WIND BECOMING ENE 10-15KT ACROSS THE NRN BAY AND
NRN OCEAN ZONES. SEAS AVERAGE 2-3FT THIS AFTN...AND BUILD TO 3-4 FT
N OF CHINCOTEAGUE LATER TONIGHT. WAVES IN THE BAY GENERALLY
AVERAGE 1-2 FT. BROAD LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE W. MEANWHILE...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES. ANOTHER
LOW THEN DEVELOPS IN VICINITY OF THE COAST THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE AREA. THE WIND REMAINS
AOB 15KT THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE DIRECTION AVERAGING NE THEN
N ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE MARINE AREA...TO W THEN NW ACROSS
THE SRN PORTION OF THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH NW FLOW AOB 15KT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE COAST SUNDAY. SEAS AVERAGE 2-3 FT S...TO 3-4 FT N THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH 1-2 FT WAVES IN THE BAY...TO 2-3 FT AT THE MOUTH OF
THE BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...JEF/LSA
MARINE...AJZ




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 032355 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
755 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS. IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE FOR EARLY
MAY ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NEXT WEEK WE EXPECT A RETURN
TO WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER TYPICAL OF EARLY MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. HAVE UPDATED POPS IN
LINE WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HIRES DATA. ALSO ADDED IN THE
MENTION OF SPRINKLES AS A VERY DRY AIR MASS NEAR THE SURFACE IS
MAKING IT TOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE ISOLATED SHOWERS TO REACH THE
GROUND. SKIES HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED TO SHOW IMPROVEMENT FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE MODIFIED WITH THE
LATEST HIRES BLENDED GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LONGWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN...EVENTUALLY
CLOSING OFF SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. LATEST
ANOMALIES SHOW HEIGHTS AND TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CENTER
3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL WITH M CLIMATE VALUES OF
30. THEREFORE OPTED TO KEEP THE INHERITED FORECAST LARGELY
UNCHANGED WHICH UNDERCUTS ALL MOS AND BLENDED GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL
DEGREES AND LEANS MORE TOWARDS DIRECT MODEL OUTPUT. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE CLOSEST ANALOGS...AND ON AVERAGE RESULTS IN
TEMPERATURES 15 DEGREES OR SON BELOW NORMAL. WITH A RESPECTABLE
COLD POOL ALOFT...SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE ERN CONUS TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO FILL DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK...BUT MODEL WORLD IS NOT CONSISTENT IN
THE SCENARIO...EC...GFS NOW PROGGING CONTD TROUGHING FOR
SUNDAY...WHICH IS OUT OF PHASE WITH PREVIOUS SOLNS.
NEVERTHELESS...DECLINING PRECIP PROBS FROM THE WEST AND GRADUALLY
MODERATING TEMPERATURE AFTER A COLD START SHOULD DEFINE THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...FORECAST FOR WHICH WAS CONSTRUCTED VIA PERSISTENCE
AND COLLABORATIVE TWEAKS GIVEN THE OVRALL LACK OF CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A GENERAL VFR FORECAST IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT MGW JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE. NON
RESTRICTIVE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WED THRU FRI WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT UPR TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 032355 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
755 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS. IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE FOR EARLY
MAY ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NEXT WEEK WE EXPECT A RETURN
TO WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER TYPICAL OF EARLY MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. HAVE UPDATED POPS IN
LINE WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HIRES DATA. ALSO ADDED IN THE
MENTION OF SPRINKLES AS A VERY DRY AIR MASS NEAR THE SURFACE IS
MAKING IT TOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE ISOLATED SHOWERS TO REACH THE
GROUND. SKIES HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED TO SHOW IMPROVEMENT FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE MODIFIED WITH THE
LATEST HIRES BLENDED GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LONGWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN...EVENTUALLY
CLOSING OFF SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. LATEST
ANOMALIES SHOW HEIGHTS AND TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CENTER
3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL WITH M CLIMATE VALUES OF
30. THEREFORE OPTED TO KEEP THE INHERITED FORECAST LARGELY
UNCHANGED WHICH UNDERCUTS ALL MOS AND BLENDED GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL
DEGREES AND LEANS MORE TOWARDS DIRECT MODEL OUTPUT. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE CLOSEST ANALOGS...AND ON AVERAGE RESULTS IN
TEMPERATURES 15 DEGREES OR SON BELOW NORMAL. WITH A RESPECTABLE
COLD POOL ALOFT...SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE ERN CONUS TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO FILL DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK...BUT MODEL WORLD IS NOT CONSISTENT IN
THE SCENARIO...EC...GFS NOW PROGGING CONTD TROUGHING FOR
SUNDAY...WHICH IS OUT OF PHASE WITH PREVIOUS SOLNS.
NEVERTHELESS...DECLINING PRECIP PROBS FROM THE WEST AND GRADUALLY
MODERATING TEMPERATURE AFTER A COLD START SHOULD DEFINE THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...FORECAST FOR WHICH WAS CONSTRUCTED VIA PERSISTENCE
AND COLLABORATIVE TWEAKS GIVEN THE OVRALL LACK OF CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A GENERAL VFR FORECAST IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT MGW JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE. NON
RESTRICTIVE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WED THRU FRI WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT UPR TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 032222 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
622 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS. IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE FOR EARLY
MAY ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NEXT WEEK WE EXPECT A RETURN
TO WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER TYPICAL OF EARLY MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. HAVE UPDATED POPS IN
LINE WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HIRES DATA. ALSO ADDED IN THE
MENTION OF SPRINKLES AS A VERY DRY AIR MASS NEAR THE SURFACE IS
MAKING IT TOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE ISOLATED SHOWERS TO REACH THE
GROUND. SKIES HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED TO SHOW IMPROVEMENT FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE MODIFIED WITH THE
LATEST HIRES BLENDED GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LONGWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN...EVENTUALLY
CLOSING OFF SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. LATEST
ANOMALIES SHOW HEIGHTS AND TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CENTER
3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL WITH M CLIMATE VALUES OF
30. THEREFORE OPTED TO KEEP THE INHERITED FORECAST LARGELY
UNCHANGED WHICH UNDERCUTS ALL MOS AND BLENDED GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL
DEGREES AND LEANS MORE TOWARDS DIRECT MODEL OUTPUT. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE CLOSEST ANALOGS...AND ON AVERAGE RESULTS IN
TEMPERATURES 15 DEGREES OR SON BELOW NORMAL. WITH A RESPECTABLE
COLD POOL ALOFT...SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE ERN CONUS TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO FILL DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK...BUT MODEL WORLD IS NOT CONSISTENT IN
THE SCENARIO...EC...GFS NOW PROGGING CONTD TROUGHING FOR
SUNDAY...WHICH IS OUT OF PHASE WITH PREVIOUS SOLNS.
NEVERTHELESS...DECLINING PRECIP PROBS FROM THE WEST AND GRADUALLY
MODERATING TEMPERATURE AFTER A COLD START SHOULD DEFINE THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...FORECAST FOR WHICH WAS CONSTRUCTED VIA PERSISTENCE
AND COLLABORATIVE TWEAKS GIVEN THE OVRALL LACK OF CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPECT SOME AIRPORTS TO SEE MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES TOWARD EARLY MORNING. LOCATIONS LIKE KDUJ
WILL LIKELY HAVE IFR RESTRICTIONS. VFR BACK AGAIN ALL AIRPORTS A COUPLE
HOURS AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WED THRU FRI WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT UPR TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 032041
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
441 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WITH WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
AND TO THE COAST THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS AN UPPER AIR
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATE THIS AFTN...LATEST RDR SHOWED A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS EXTENDING FM NEAR D.C. SW TO JUST W OF FARMVILLE...THEN
CONTINUED TO DANVILLE. ELSEWHERE...ISLTD SHOWERS WERE OVR SE VA
AND NE NC. WILL HAVE 40-60% POPS INTO TNGT...AS THE BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS...AND POSSIBLY OTHER DEVELOPING SHOWERS/TSTMS IN
ADVANCE OF THIS LINE...MOVE EWRD THRU THE CWA. BEST (MARGINAL)
INSTABILITY WILL BE ACRS EXTRM SRN VA AND NE NC...AND THIS AREA
REMAINS IN A SLGT RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE
DAMAGING WNDS/HAIL. OTHERWISE...ANY STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. POPS DECREASE TO 20-40% FM WSW TO
NE LATE TNGT INTO WED MORNG...AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE CST.
LOWS TNGT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO ARND 60...UNDER A
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNSETTLED WX WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE FA WED THRU FRI...DUE TO UPR
AIR LO PRES DROPPING FM THE GRT LKS REGION DOWN AND OVR THE MID
ATLC REGION. WILL CARRY MAINLY 20-40% POPS...FM WED AFTN THRU WED
NGT...THEN HAVE 40-60% ACRS THE REGION THU THRU FRI...AS THE UPR
LVL LO TRACKS INTO NC THEN LIFTS NWRD THRU ERN VA/DE AND INTO NEW
JERSEY. OTHERWISE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WED INTO WED
NGT...THEN GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY OR CLOUDY THU THRU FRI. HIGHS
ON WED WILL RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. LOWS WED NGT WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE LWR TO MID 50S. HIGHS ON THU AND FRI WILL RANGE THRU
THE 60S TO NEAR 70. LOWS THU NGT WILL BE IN THE UPR 40S TO LWR
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. POPS RANGE FROM ~20% SW TO 30-40% NE FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY...FOLLOWED BY PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH A 20% CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE ERN HALF OF
THE AREA. FORECAST LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S OVER THE ERN
SHORE...TO THE LOW 70S FOR INLAND VA/NE NC. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE N SATURDAY NIGHT AND CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY. GFS/CMC
REMAIN SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT THE OVERALL CONSENSUS IS
FOR A SUNDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE. MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC POP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HIGHS SUNDAY RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE
50S. A MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO GENERALLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS...WITH CURRENT FORECAST
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S MONDAY AND MODERATING INTO THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE W LATE
IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WAS OVER THE TAF SITES AT MIDDAY. A COLD
FRONT WAS SITUATED FROM JUST N OF RIC AND SBY AND CONTINUING TO THE
W/SW MOVING VERY SLOWLY SE. CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES WERE VARYING
BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR. RADAR SHOWED WIDELY SCT LGT SHOWERS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HAVE SHOWERS AT VARIOUS TIMES IN THE TAFS
LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

HAVE THE FRONT MOVE THROUGH RIC/SBY NEXT FEW HOURS AND REACHING PHF
AND ORF OVERNIGHT. WINDS TURN TO THE NE AND CIGS LOWER TO MVFR THEN
LATER IFR BEHIND THE FRONT. AT SBY AND ORF...HAVE LIFR CIGS AND
IFR VSBYS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BASED ON CONSENSUS OF MODEL/MOS
DATA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL IN THE MORNING JUST NORTH OF
ECG.

WIDESPREAD IFR IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH ONLY SLOW
IMPROVEMENT. KEPT ALL THE TAF SITES IFR THROUGH 18Z EXCEPT SLIGHTLY
BETTER AT RIC. CONDITIONS MAY BE A LITTLE BETTER BY 18Z BUT A LOW
OVERCAST IS EXPECTED TO HANG IN FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LOW SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH PERIODS OF IFR. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PULLS SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST
WITH AN IMPROVING TREND IN AVIATION CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
A RATHER DIFFUSE COLD FRONT IS GRADUALLY DROPPING INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION THIS AFTN. THE WIND REMAINS SW AOB 10KT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...AND IS NORTHERLY AOB 10KT ON THE COOL-SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY. THE FRONT GRADUALLY DROPS TO NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER
OVERNIGHT WITH THE WIND BECOMING ENE 10-15KT ACROSS THE NRN BAY AND
NRN OCEAN ZONES. SEAS AVERAGE 2-3FT THIS AFTN...AND BUILD TO 3-4 FT
N OF CHINCOTEAGUE LATER TONIGHT. WAVES IN THE BAY GENERALLY
AVERAGE 1-2 FT. BROAD LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE W. MEANWHILE...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES. ANOTHER
LOW THEN DEVELOPS IN VICINITY OF THE COAST THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE AREA. THE WIND REMAINS
AOB 15KT THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE DIRECTION AVERAGING NE THEN
N ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE MARINE AREA...TO W THEN NW ACROSS
THE SRN PORTION OF THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH NW FLOW AOB 15KT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE COAST SUNDAY. SEAS AVERAGE 2-3 FT S...TO 3-4 FT N THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH 1-2 FT WAVES IN THE BAY...TO 2-3 FT AT THE MOUTH OF
THE BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 032037
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
437 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WITH WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
AND TO THE COAST THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS AN UPPER AIR
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATE THIS AFTN...LATEST RDR SHOWED A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS EXTENDING FM NEAR D.C. SW TO JUST W OF FARMVILLE...THEN
CONTINUED TO DANVILLE. ELSEWHERE...ISLTD SHOWERS WERE OVR SE VA
AND NE NC. WILL HAVE 40-60% POPS INTO TNGT...AS THE BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS...AND POSSIBLY OTHER DEVELOPING SHOWERS/TSTMS IN
ADVANCE OF THIS LINE...MOVE EWRD THRU THE CWA. BEST (MARGINAL)
INSTABILITY WILL BE ACRS EXTRM SRN VA AND NE NC...AND THIS AREA
REMAINS IN A SLGT RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE
DAMAGING WNDS/HAIL. OTHERWISE...ANY STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. POPS DECREASE TO 20-40% FM WSW TO
NE LATE TNGT INTO WED MORNG...AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE CST.
LOWS TNGT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO ARND 60...UNDER A
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNSETTLED WX WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE FA WED THRU FRI...DUE TO UPR
AIR LO PRES DROPPING FM THE GRT LKS REGION DOWN AND OVR THE MID
ATLC REGION. WILL CARRY MAINLY 20-40% POPS...FM WED AFTN THRU WED
NGT...THEN HAVE 40-60% ACRS THE REGION THU THRU FRI...AS THE UPR
LVL LO TRACKS INTO NC THEN LIFTS NWRD THRU ERN VA/DE AND INTO NEW
JERSEY. OTHERWISE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WED INTO WED
NGT...THEN GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY OR CLOUDY THU THRU FRI. HIGHS
ON WED WILL RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. LOWS WED NGT WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE LWR TO MID 50S. HIGHS ON THU AND FRI WILL RANGE THRU
THE 60S TO NEAR 70. LOWS THU NGT WILL BE IN THE UPR 40S TO LWR
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST FRIDAY WITH A ~40% CHC OF SHOWERS. FORECAST
HIGHS RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE SATURDAY AS THE
LOW SLIDES FARTHER OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES MODERATE INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY SKY...WITH A 20% POP FOR THE ERN
HALF OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH THE 02/12Z GFS FASTER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
COMPARED TO THE 02/12Z ECMWF. NEVERTHELESS...MOISTURE APPEARS
LIMITED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AT THIS TIME. WARMER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE
50S. A MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO GENERALLY DRY
AND MILD CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WAS OVER THE TAF SITES AT MIDDAY. A COLD
FRONT WAS SITUATED FROM JUST N OF RIC AND SBY AND CONTINUING TO THE
W/SW MOVING VERY SLOWLY SE. CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES WERE VARYING
BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR. RADAR SHOWED WIDELY SCT LGT SHOWERS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HAVE SHOWERS AT VARIOUS TIMES IN THE TAFS
LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

HAVE THE FRONT MOVE THROUGH RIC/SBY NEXT FEW HOURS AND REACHING PHF
AND ORF OVERNIGHT. WINDS TURN TO THE NE AND CIGS LOWER TO MVFR THEN
LATER IFR BEHIND THE FRONT. AT SBY AND ORF...HAVE LIFR CIGS AND
IFR VSBYS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BASED ON CONSENSUS OF MODEL/MOS
DATA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL IN THE MORNING JUST NORTH OF
ECG.

WIDESPREAD IFR IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH ONLY SLOW
IMPROVEMENT. KEPT ALL THE TAF SITES IFR THROUGH 18Z EXCEPT SLIGHTLY
BETTER AT RIC. CONDITIONS MAY BE A LITTLE BETTER BY 18Z BUT A LOW
OVERCAST IS EXPECTED TO HANG IN FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LOW SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH PERIODS OF IFR. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PULLS SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST
WITH AN IMPROVING TREND IN AVIATION CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. S-SW WINDS 10-15 KT WILL BECOME N-NE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
THIS WIND SHIFT WILL NOT TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERNMOST WATERS
UNTIL LATE THIS EVE/TONIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH
AS THERE IS A LACK OF CAA BEHIND THE FRONT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MAINTAINING NE
FLOW AOB 15 KT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. EASTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NW AS THE LOW
DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA. LOW
PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH NW FLOW
CONTINUING. SEAS AVERAGE 3-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 2-3 FT WAVES
IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 032020
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
420 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WITH WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
AND TO THE COAST THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS AN UPPER AIR
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATE THIS AFTN...LATEST RDR SHOWED A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS EXTENDING FM NEAR D.C. SW TO JUST W OF FARMVILLE...THEN
CONTINUED TO DAN. ELSEWHERE...ISLTD SHOWERS WERE OVR SE VA AND NE
NC. WILL HAVE 40-60% POPS INTO TNGT...AS THE BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS...AND POSSIBLY OTHER DEVELOPING SHOWERS/TSTMS IN
ADVANCE OF THIS LINE...MOVE EWRD THRU THE CWA. BEST (MARGINAL)
INSTABILITY WILL BE ACRS EXTRM SRN VA AND NE NC...AND THIS AREA
REMAINS IN A SLGT RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE
DAMAGING WNDS/HAIL. OTHERWISE...ANY STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. POPS DECREASE TO 20-40% FM WSW TO
NE LATE TNGT INTO WED MORNG...AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE CST.
LOWS TNGT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO ARND 60...UNDER A
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNSETTLED WX WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE FA WED THRU THU...DUE TO UPR
AIR LO PRES DROPPING FM THE GRT LKS REGION DOWN AND ACRS THE MID
ATLC REGION. WILL CARRY 30-50% POPS...ESP WED AFTN...W/ HIGHER
POPS (40-60%) THU AS THE UPR LVL LO TRACKS INTO NC. OTRW...CONTD
VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS WED-THU. HI TEMPS ON WED WILL RANGE
FM THE M60S N TO L70S S. LOWS WED NGT MNLY IN THE L-M50S. HIGHS ON
THU WILL RANGE FM THE L-M60S N TO ARND 70F FAR SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST FRIDAY WITH A ~40% CHC OF SHOWERS. FORECAST
HIGHS RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE SATURDAY AS THE
LOW SLIDES FARTHER OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES MODERATE INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY SKY...WITH A 20% POP FOR THE ERN
HALF OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH THE 02/12Z GFS FASTER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
COMPARED TO THE 02/12Z ECMWF. NEVERTHELESS...MOISTURE APPEARS
LIMITED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AT THIS TIME. WARMER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE
50S. A MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO GENERALLY DRY
AND MILD CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WAS OVER THE TAF SITES AT MIDDAY. A COLD
FRONT WAS SITUATED FROM JUST N OF RIC AND SBY AND CONTINUING TO THE
W/SW MOVING VERY SLOWLY SE. CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES WERE VARYING
BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR. RADAR SHOWED WIDELY SCT LGT SHOWERS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HAVE SHOWERS AT VARIOUS TIMES IN THE TAFS
LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

HAVE THE FRONT MOVE THROUGH RIC/SBY NEXT FEW HOURS AND REACHING PHF
AND ORF OVERNIGHT. WINDS TURN TO THE NE AND CIGS LOWER TO MVFR THEN
LATER IFR BEHIND THE FRONT. AT SBY AND ORF...HAVE LIFR CIGS AND
IFR VSBYS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BASED ON CONSENSUS OF MODEL/MOS
DATA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL IN THE MORNING JUST NORTH OF
ECG.

WIDESPREAD IFR IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH ONLY SLOW
IMPROVEMENT. KEPT ALL THE TAF SITES IFR THROUGH 18Z EXCEPT SLIGHTLY
BETTER AT RIC. CONDITIONS MAY BE A LITTLE BETTER BY 18Z BUT A LOW
OVERCAST IS EXPECTED TO HANG IN FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LOW SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH PERIODS OF IFR. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PULLS SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST
WITH AN IMPROVING TREND IN AVIATION CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. S-SW WINDS 10-15 KT WILL BECOME N-NE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
THIS WIND SHIFT WILL NOT TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERNMOST WATERS
UNTIL LATE THIS EVE/TONIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH
AS THERE IS A LACK OF CAA BEHIND THE FRONT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MAINTAINING NE
FLOW AOB 15 KT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. EASTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NW AS THE LOW
DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA. LOW
PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH NW FLOW
CONTINUING. SEAS AVERAGE 3-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 2-3 FT WAVES
IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031943
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
343 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS. IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE FOR EARLY
MAY ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NEXT WEEK WE EXPECT A RETURN
TO WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER TYPICAL OF EARLY MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF PITTSBURGH
OVERNIGHT AS A JET STREAK ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
DEEPENING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AVERAGE 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LONGWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN...EVENTUALLY
CLOSING OFF SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. LATEST
ANOMALIES SHOW HEIGHTS AND TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CENTER
3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL WITH M CLIMATE VALUES OF
30. THEREFORE OPTED TO KEEP THE INHERITED FORECAST LARGELY
UNCHANGED WHICH UNDERCUTS ALL MOS AND BLENDED GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL
DEGREES AND LEANS MORE TOWARDS DIRECT MODEL OUTPUT. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE CLOSEST ANALOGS...AND ON AVERAGE RESULTS IN
TEMPERATURES 15 DEGREES OR SON BELOW NORMAL. WITH A RESPECTABLE
COLD POOL ALOFT...SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE ERN CONUS TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO FILL DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK...BUT MODEL WORLD IS NOT CONSISTENT IN
THE SCENARIO...EC...GFS NOW PROGGING CONTD TROUGHING FOR
SUNDAY...WHICH IS OUT OF PHASE WITH PREVIOUS SOLNS.
NEVERTHELESS...DECLINING PRECIP PROBS FROM THE WEST AND GRADUALLY
MODERATING TEMPERATURE AFTER A COLD START SHOULD DEFINE THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...FORECAST FOR WHICH WAS CONSTRUCTED VIA PERSISTENCE
AND COLLABORATIVE TWEAKS GIVEN THE OVRALL LACK OF CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPECT SOME AIRPORTS TO SEE MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES TOWARD EARLY MORNING. LOCATIONS LIKE KDUJ
WILL LIKELY HAVE IFR RESTRICTIONS. VFR BACK AGAIN ALL AIRPORTS A COUPLE
HOURS AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WED THRU FRI WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT UPR TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPHI 031940
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
340 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED TO
THE SOUTH OF OUR REGION INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE VIRGINIA CAPES THURSDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTH
ALONG THE DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY COAST, BEFORE MOVING OUT TO SEA
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ANTICIPATED
SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT AFFECTED OUR REGION DURING THE NIGHT
AND THIS MORNING WAS CONTINUING TO MOVE OUT TO SEA THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE, ANOTHER LOW WAS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA. IT
SHOULD DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD REACHING THE COAST NEAR THE VIRGINIA AND
NORTH CAROLINA BORDER AROUND DAYBREAK.

THE BACK EDGE OF THE DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE THE STRATUS WAS
BEGINNING TO MOVE OFF THE COAST AROUND MID AFTERNOON. THE INCREASING
INSOLATION SHOULD CAUSE THE BASES OF THE STRATUS TO LIFT A BIT
DURING THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON. ALSO, IT SHOULD BRING AN END TO
ANY PATCHY DRIZZLE IN OUR REGION.

THE STRATUS SHOULD BEGIN TO LOWER AGAIN AFTER DARK. THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE IN WESTERN VIRGINIA
AROUND 330 PM MAY AFFECT SOME OF OUR COUNTIES IN NORTHEASTERN
MARYLAND AND DELAWARE THIS EVENING. ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN WEST VIRGINIA MAY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, THE REST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA SHOULD RECEIVE LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.

THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN OUR
REGION. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD FAVOR THE UPPER 4OS AND LOWER
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO LIFT FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OF
VIRGINIA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING TO THE WATERS OFF DELAWARE AND
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY LATE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS AND A
NORTHEAST WIND ARE AGAIN EXPECTED IN OUR REGION

THE AREA OF SHOWERS THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT SHOULD LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND OUT OF OUR
REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER, A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
TRAVELING IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS
OVERHEAD DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND IT SHOULD
ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA AT
THAT TIME.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE
NORTHEAST WIND AND THE CLOUD COVER. HIGHS SHOULD FAVOR THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MID-LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH FRIDAY INCLUDE A MEAN
VORTEX NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL FAVORED NORTHERN HUDSON`S BAY WITH AN
OMEGA BLOCK SETTING UP A SPLIT FLOW OVER NOAM. A VIRGOROUS SHORTWAVE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT WILL CARVE OUT A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC THU, WHICH WILL SLOWLY MEANDER NORTH AND
GRADUALLY FILL THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR CONTINUED
UNSETTLED WEATHER THRU EARLY THIS WEEKEND. A STOUT SHORTWAVE MOVING
ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF HUDSON`S BAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL
BREAK DOWN THE OMEGA BLOCK, AND EJECT THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE THIS WEEKEND. MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A RETURN TO FAIR
WEATHER, AND A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH WILL MAINTAIN A COOL AND MOIST
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE WEAK SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN THE LEFT-REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
JET, MAINTAINING A WEAK OF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE,
WHICH WILL NOSE DOWN FROM THE BAY OF FUNDY. THE COLUMN WILL BE VERY
MOIST WITH WEAK STEERING CURRENTS, FAVORING LIGHT AND SPOTTY PRECIP
MAINLY WEST OF THE FALL LINE, WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT IS ENHANCED.

THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...DEEP MID-LEVEL LOW, WITH HEIGHTS OF
NEGATIVE 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS, CLOSES OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI, AND GRADUALLY FILLS, AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SAT. THE VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE LEADS TO MODEST CYCLOGENSIS NEAR THE VA CAPES THU NIGHT, AS
THE SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED NEAR THE DE/NJ COAST FRI NIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE
PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW, PARTICULARLY HOW FAR SOUTH IT DEVELOPS
THU NIGHT, THEN HOW FAST IT MOVES OFFSHORE SAT. THE NAM IS FURTHEST
TO THE SOUTH THU NIGHT, WITH A GREATER PRESSURE GRADIENT NORTHWARD
INTO FRIDAY, RESULTING IN LONGER DURATION OF GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE
COAST. FORTUNATELY, THE CONFLUENT REGION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET IS
NOT FAVORABLE FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF
THE LOW, WHICH SHOULD REDUCE THE WIND POTENTIAL, I.E., LACK OF A
ROBUST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY JET. THE ECMWF MAY BE LIFTING THE LOW
TOO QUICKLY NORTHEAST SATURDAY, GIVEN THE VERTICALLY STACKED
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, AND IS AN OUTLIER.

OVERALL, A WET PERIOD DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
IS ANTICIPATED JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION, WHERE THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE ALIGNS WITH THE STRONGEST PVA. WITH THE LACK OF A
ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET, AS WELL AS THE SYNOPTIC SETUP, THE HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS.
THUS, EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO INCREASE AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE,
WITH EARLY ESTIMATES UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES NORTHWEST OF I-95.
GIVEN THE DURATION OF THE RAINFALL, URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE A MAJOR ISSUE. WHILE WE HAVE NOT INSERTED
THUNDER AT THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST, MID-LEVEL COLD POOL WILL BE
OVER DELMARVA FRIDAY, WITH 500 HPA TEMPS APPROACHING -24C! MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE MODELED TO APPOACH 7C/KM, WITH MODEST ELEVATED CAPE.
IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP, THEY WOULD BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL SLOWLY MOVES NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY, CANNOT RULE OUT A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
THUNDER. WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE, WINDS COULD GUST UP TO
AROUND 30 MPH ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY...CLIPPER-TYPE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY FOLLOWING ON THE HEELS OF
THE CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO LEAD TO A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION. THE MODELS TEND TO AMPLIFY THIS SHORT-
WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF PRECIP, AS WELL AS GUSTY POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS.
A PATTERN CHANGE WILL ALSO BE UNDERWAY AT THIS TIME, SO THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW AMPLIFIED THIS FEATURE WILL BE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FAIR WEATHER DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH
TEMPERATURES AOA SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER
BACK INTO THE IFR RANGE AFTER DARK AND THEY SHOULD REMAIN THERE WELL
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOUD BASES MAY LIFT SLIGHTLY FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN IN
THE HIGH END IFR TO LOW END MVFR RANGE. WE ARE ANTICIPATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AROUND KRDG AND KABE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL EIGHT OF OUR TAF SITES ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE WIND WILL FAVOR THE NORTHEAST AND EAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD,
AT SPEEDS MAINLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
OVERALL, MODERATE CONFIDENCE THU NIGHT THRU SUN TAF PERIOD.

THU NIGHT AND FRI...PREDOMINANTLY MVFR IN SHRA. POCKETS OF IFR
POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY ACY AND MIV THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI.
NORTHEAST WINDS COULD GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TERMINALS ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF I-95, MAINLY FRI.

FRI NIGHT...MVFR. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF I-95.

SAT AND SUN...PREDOMINANTLY VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SURFACE PATTERN WITH LOW PRESSURE REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON OUR COASTAL WATERS FOR
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO
STAY BELOW 25 KNOTS, WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD TO 5
FEET, ESPECIALLY ON THE WATERS OFF NEW JERSEY. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE
ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS FROM
SANDY HOOK TO CAPE MAY. IT BEGINS AT 900 AM WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
A VERY PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WED NIGHT THRU SAT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD
NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT A SCA IS PROBABLE,
GIVEN BUILDING SEAS IN A NORTHEAST FETCH WED NIGHT THRU FRI. A SCA
IS NOW IN EFFECT THRU 12Z THU, FOR WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR 5FT, AND WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER INTO FRI.

SATURDAY...SEAS SHOULD BE SUBSIDING, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT RESIDUAL
5FT WAVES, THUS LOW PROBABILITY SCA MAY BE NEEDED. LOW CONFIDENCE.

SUN...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH SCA
LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A LONG DURATION NORTHEASTERLY FETCH WILL DEVELOP IN THE WED THRU
AT LEAST FRI TIME FRAME. IN ADDITION, ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AS WE APPROACH THE NEW MOON FRI. ALL AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING AROUND
THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ON WEDNESDAY EVENING, THURSDAY EVENING,
AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
REACHING A MODERATE THRESHOLD FRIDAY EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW.

AS A SIDE NOTE: IT IS OUR UNDERSTANDING THAT EVENTUALLY WE WILL
BEGIN REFERENCING COASTAL FLOODING WITH RESPECT TO MHHW WHICH WILL
EQUATE TO INUNDATION DEPTH WITH RESPECT TO NORMALLY DRY GROUND.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE TRAINING REFERENCES DURING THE TRANSITION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO
     8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>453.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/IOVINO
MARINE...FRANCK/IOVINO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KPHI 031932
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
332 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED TO
THE SOUTH OF OUR REGION INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE VIRGINIA CAPES THURSDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTH
ALONG THE DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY COAST, BEFORE MOVING OUT TO SEA
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ANTICIPATED
SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST AROUND 130 PM.
THE LOW WILL DRIFT EASTWARD AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA THIS AFTERNOON.
A SECONDARY LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA
AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL KEEP OUR FORECAST
AREA IN A NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR ABOVE
THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD MAINTAIN THE LOW CLOUDS OVER OUR REGION.
THE BACK EDGE OF THE DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE THE STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO WORK ITS WAY FROM WEST TO EAST OVER OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE INCREASING INSOLATION MAY
CAUSE THE LOW CLOUD DECK TO RISE A BIT AT THAT TIME.

THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WAS WELL TO OUR EAST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH MORE THAN SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER, SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND
DELAWARE FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY BASED ON SOME OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE.

THE CLOUD COVER AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM GETTING MUCH ABOVE THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN MOST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. READINGS WILL FALL SHORT OF THAT RANGE IN THE FAR
NORTH AND THEY WILL BE A BIT ABOVE THOSE VALUES IN PARTS OF
SOUTHERN DELAWARE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN SOME
TO OUR WEST DURING THE COURSE OF TONIGHT. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A MORE FOCUSED SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
UNTIL TOWARD MORNING. THE 250 MB JET IS FORECAST TO MOVE RIGHT
OVER OUR AREA TONIGHT, REMOVING THE REGION FROM THE MORE FAVORABLE
AREA OF LIFT. AS A RESULT, WE KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC RANGE AS SOME SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE IDEA OF LOW
CLOUDS CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN THE MARINE INFLUENCE, AND
THEREFORE SOME DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AS THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SOME MID LEVEL DRYING IN PLACE.

WHILE SOME FOG MAY BE AROUND IT IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE
SIGNIFICANT AS THE STRATUS MAY LIMIT THE ACTUAL DEVELOPMENT
OVERALL. THEREFORE, OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE FOG ATTM BUT THIS WILL BE
REVISITED LATER. AS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED A MOS BLEND
OVERALL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL A LOT GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER
AND DEW POINTS GENERALLY REMAINING UP DUE TO NEAR LOW-LEVEL
SATURATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MID-LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH FRIDAY INCLUDE A MEAN
VORTEX NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL FAVORED NORTHERN HUDSON`S BAY WITH AN
OMEGA BLOCK SETTING UP A SPLIT FLOW OVER NOAM. A VIRGOROUS SHORTWAVE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT WILL CARVE OUT A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC THU, WHICH WILL SLOWLY MEANDER NORTH AND
GRADUALLY FILL THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR CONTINUED
UNSETTLED WEATHER THRU EARLY THIS WEEKEND. A STOUT SHORTWAVE MOVING
ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF HUDSON`S BAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL
BREAK DOWN THE OMEGA BLOCK, AND EJECT THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE THIS WEEKEND. MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A RETURN TO FAIR
WEATHER, AND A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH WILL MAINTAIN A COOL AND MOIST
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE WEAK SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN THE LEFT-REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
JET, MAINTAINING A WEAK OF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE,
WHICH WILL NOSE DOWN FROM THE BAY OF FUNDY. THE COLUMN WILL BE VERY
MOIST WITH WEAK STEERING CURRENTS, FAVORING LIGHT AND SPOTTY PRECIP
MAINLY WEST OF THE FALL LINE, WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT IS ENHANCED.

THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...DEEP MID-LEVEL LOW, WITH HEIGHTS OF
NEGATIVE 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS, CLOSES OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI, AND GRADUALLY FILLS, AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SAT. THE VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE LEADS TO MODEST CYCLOGENSIS NEAR THE VA CAPES THU NIGHT, AS
THE SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED NEAR THE DE/NJ COAST FRI NIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE
PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW, PARTICULARLY HOW FAR SOUTH IT DEVELOPS
THU NIGHT, THEN HOW FAST IT MOVES OFFSHORE SAT. THE NAM IS FURTHEST
TO THE SOUTH THU NIGHT, WITH A GREATER PRESSURE GRADIENT NORTHWARD
INTO FRIDAY, RESULTING IN LONGER DURATION OF GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE
COAST. FORTUNATELY, THE CONFLUENT REGION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET IS
NOT FAVORABLE FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF
THE LOW, WHICH SHOULD REDUCE THE WIND POTENTIAL, I.E., LACK OF A
ROBUST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY JET. THE ECMWF MAY BE LIFTING THE LOW
TOO QUICKLY NORTHEAST SATURDAY, GIVEN THE VERTICALLY STACKED
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, AND IS AN OUTLIER.

OVERALL, A WET PERIOD DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
IS ANTICIPATED JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION, WHERE THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE ALIGNS WITH THE STRONGEST PVA. WITH THE LACK OF A
ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET, AS WELL AS THE SYNOPTIC SETUP, THE HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS.
THUS, EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO INCREASE AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE,
WITH EARLY ESTIMATES UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES NORTHWEST OF I-95.
GIVEN THE DURATION OF THE RAINFALL, URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE A MAJOR ISSUE. WHILE WE HAVE NOT INSERTED
THUNDER AT THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST, MID-LEVEL COLD POOL WILL BE
OVER DELMARVA FRIDAY, WITH 500 HPA TEMPS APPROACHING -24C! MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE MODELED TO APPOACH 7C/KM, WITH MODEST ELEVATED CAPE.
IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP, THEY WOULD BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL SLOWLY MOVES NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY, CANNOT RULE OUT A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
THUNDER. WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE, WINDS COULD GUST UP TO
AROUND 30 MPH ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY...CLIPPER-TYPE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY FOLLOWING ON THE HEELS OF
THE CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO LEAD TO A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION. THE MODELS TEND TO AMPLIFY THIS SHORT-
WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF PRECIP, AS WELL AS GUSTY POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS.
A PATTERN CHANGE WILL ALSO BE UNDERWAY AT THIS TIME, SO THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW AMPLIFIED THIS FEATURE WILL BE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FAIR WEATHER DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH
TEMPERATURES AOA SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE AFFECTING OUR REGION. CEILINGS ARE
FORECAST TO LOWER BACK INTO THE IFR RANGE AFTER DARK AND THEY
SHOULD REMAIN THERE WELL INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOUD BASES MAY
LIFT SLIGHTLY FROM LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN IN THE HIGH END IFR TO LOW END MVFR RANGE.
WE ARE ANTICIPATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

THE WIND WILL FAVOR THE NORTHEAST AND EAST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, AT SPEEDS MAINLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
OVERALL, MODERATE CONFIDENCE THU NIGHT THRU SUN TAF PERIOD.

THU NIGHT AND FRI...PREDOMINANTLY MVFR IN SHRA. POCKETS OF IFR
POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY ACY AND MIV THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI.
NORTHEAST WINDS COULD GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TERMINALS ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF I-95, MAINLY FRI.

FRI NIGHT...MVFR. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF I-95.

SAT AND SUN...PREDOMINANTLY VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT WILL KEEP AN ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE. WHILE THIS MAY SOME
INCREASE FOR A TIME ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, IT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS.
SINCE THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK ENOUGH, SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO BE 4 FEET OR LESS. THEREFORE, THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
A VERY PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WED NIGHT THRU SAT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD
NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. STILL LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE
WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT A SCA IS PROBABLE,
GIVEN BUILDING SEAS IN A NORTHEAST FETCH WED NIGHT THRU FRI. A
SCA IS NOW IN EFFECT THRU 12Z THU, FOR WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR 5FT,
AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER INTO FRI.

SATURDAY...SEAS SHOULD BE SUBSIDING, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT RESIDUAL
5FT WAVES, THUS LOW PROBABILITY SCA MAY BE NEEDED. LOW CONFIDENCE.

SUN...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH SCA
LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A LONG DURATION NORTHEASTERLY FETCH WILL DEVELOP IN THE WED THRU
AT LEAST FRI TIME FRAME. IN ADDITION, ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AS WE APPROACH THE NEW MOON FRI. ALL AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING AROUND
THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ON WEDNESDAY EVENING, THURSDAY EVENING,
AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
REACHING A MODERATE THRESHOLD FRIDAY EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW.

AS A SIDE NOTE: IT IS OUR UNDERSTANDING THAT EVENTUALLY WE WILL
BEGIN REFERENCING COASTAL FLOODING WITH RESPECT TO MHHW WHICH WILL
EQUATE TO INUNDATION DEPTH WITH RESPECT TO NORMALLY DRY GROUND.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE TRAINING REFERENCES DURING THE TRANSITION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/IOVINO
MARINE...FRANCK/IOVINO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KLWX 031857
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
257 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE TROF WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY. A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING HAS ALLOWED
A FEW SHOWERS AND T-STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SRN SHENANDOAH
VALLEY. A MODIFIED ACARS 1736Z SOUNDING FROM BWI YIELDS SKYNNY
CAPE AROUND 350 J/KG. ANTICIPATING T-STORMS TO SHOW SOME WEAKENING
AS THEY MOVE FARTHER EAST INTO THE DC METRO. OVERALL...THERE IS
LITTLE FORCING TODAY FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION OTHER THAN A WEAK
SFC TROF OR CONVERGENCE LINE BETWEEN LOW PRES OFF SOUTHEAST VA AND
DETROIT MI. AS INSTABILITY WANES TONIGHT AND ONLY WEAK FORCING IS
AVAILABLE ANTICIPATE STRATIFORM LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO BECOME
THE MAIN PRECIP TYPE. SKIES MAY BRIGHTEN A LITTLE BIT LATE
TOMORROW BUT OTHERWISE A LOT OF CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...A
SHORTWAVE-TROUGH OVER THE WRN GREAT LKS WILL DIG INTO THE OH
VALLEY WED AND FORM A DEEP CLOSED LOW ALOFT. LARGE SCALE LIFT
INCREASES OVER THE AREA WED NIGHT WITH RAIN DEVELOPING NORTH OF
THE H5 LOW TRACK. A SWATH OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN APPEARS LIKELY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MTNS WHERE MODELS SHOW A
CONVERGENT UPSLOPE NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW SETTING UP. THIS
APPEARS A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MDT RAINS WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME
FLOODING ISSUES GIVEN INCREASINGLY SOGGY CONDITIONS AND VERY SLOW
MOVEMENT OF PRECIP AREA. WE`LL NEED TO MONITOR RAINFALL TOTALS
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MEANDER ABOUT THE NEW JERSEY COAST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL EXIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL.

AS THE DISTURBANCE WEAKENS AND SLIDES SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH...A
BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE TEMPORARILY DRY BEFORE THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION. THE RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.

THE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LINGER SUNDAY AND IN THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AND AFFILIATED DISTURBANCE NEARBY.

THE FRONT WILL TRY TO MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING BACK THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR A
THUNDERSTORM. THE BIGGER THREAT WILL BE TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...MVFR CIGS EAST TAF SITES
DETERIORATING TO IFR EVERYWHERE LATE TONIGHT IN LIGHT NORTHEAST
FLOW AND DRIZZLE. A T-STORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING AT KDCA AND KCHO.

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS FRIDAY. WINDS
NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THU MORNING INCREASING
SOMEWHAT THU AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY FRIDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...KLW
MARINE...KLW




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031830
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
230 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH TO THE COAST INTO TONIGHT.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS AN
UPPER AIR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE THIS MORNG...BULK OF RAIN ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT
WAS PUSHING INTO SE VA AND NE NC. ANY TSTMS HAVE MOVED OFF THE
CST. SO...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SINK
SE THRU THE AREA THIS AFTN...ARRIVING IN SE VA/NE NC BY LATE THIS
AFTN OR EARLY THIS EVENG. THE BULK OF THE STEADIER RAIN WILL SHIFT
E AND OFF THE CST IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. THEN...EXPECT ADDITIONAL
SCTD SHRAS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVR THE FA. BEST (MARGINAL) INSTABILITY
LATER THIS AFTN WILL BE ACRS EXTRM SRN/SE VA AND NE NC...AND THIS
AREA HAS BEEN PLACED IN A SLGT RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS BY SPC.
PRIMARY THREAT DAMAGING WNDS/HAIL...AND IS HIGHLIGHTED IN HWO.
STILL A PROBABILITY FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS FM ANY SHRAS/TSTMS
THIS AFTN/EVENG. HI TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 60S TO THE UPR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING CONVECTION...MNLY SRN/SE VA-NE NC THIS EVE...THEN VRB-
MOSTLY CLOUDY TNGT W/ LWRG POPS. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE
50S TO NR 60F.

UNSETTLED WX WILL CONT ACRS THE FA WED THRU THU...DUE TO UPR AIR
LO PRES DROPPING FM THE GRT LKS REGION DOWN AND ACRS THE MID ATLC
REGION. WILL CARRY 30-50% POPS...ESP WED AFTN...W/ HIGHER POPS
(40-60%) THU AS THE UPR LVL LO TRACKS INTO NC. OTRW...CONTD VRB
CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS WED-THU. HI TEMPS ON WED WILL RANGE FM
THE M60S N TO L70S S. LOWS WED NGT MNLY IN THE L-M50S. HIGHS ON
THU WILL RANGE FM THE L-M60S N TO ARND 70F FAR SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST FRIDAY WITH A ~40% CHC OF SHOWERS. FORECAST
HIGHS RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE SATURDAY AS THE
LOW SLIDES FARTHER OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES MODERATE INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY SKY...WITH A 20% POP FOR THE ERN
HALF OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH THE 02/12Z GFS FASTER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
COMPARED TO THE 02/12Z ECMWF. NEVERTHELESS...MOISTURE APPEARS
LIMITED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AT THIS TIME. WARMER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE
50S. A MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO GENERALLY DRY
AND MILD CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WAS OVER THE TAF SITES AT MIDDAY. A COLD
FRONT WAS SITUATED FROM JUST N OF RIC AND SBY AND CONTINUING TO THE
W/SW MOVING VERY SLOWLY SE. CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES WERE VARYING
BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR. RADAR SHOWED WIDELY SCT LGT SHOWERS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HAVE SHOWERS AT VARIOUS TIMES IN THE TAFS
LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

HAVE THE FRONT MOVE THROUGH RIC/SBY NEXT FEW HOURS AND REACHING PHF
AND ORF OVERNIGHT. WINDS TURN TO THE NE AND CIGS LOWER TO MVFR THEN
LATER IFR BEHIND THE FRONT. AT SBY AND ORF...HAVE LIFR CIGS AND
IFR VSBYS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BASED ON CONSENSUS OF MODEL/MOS
DATA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL IN THE MORNING JUST NORTH OF
ECG.

WIDESPREAD IFR IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH ONLY SLOW
IMPROVEMENT. KEPT ALL THE TAF SITES IFR THROUGH 18Z EXCEPT SLIGHTLY
BETTER AT RIC. CONDITIONS MAY BE A LITTLE BETTER BY 18Z BUT A LOW
OVERCAST IS EXPECTED TO HANG IN FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LOW SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH PERIODS OF IFR. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PULLS SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST
WITH AN IMPROVING TREND IN AVIATION CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. S-SW WINDS 10-15 KT WILL BECOME N-NE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
THIS WIND SHIFT WILL NOT TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERNMOST WATERS
UNTIL LATE THIS EVE/TONIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH
AS THERE IS A LACK OF CAA BEHIND THE FRONT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MAINTAINING NE
FLOW AOB 15 KT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. EASTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NW AS THE LOW
DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA. LOW
PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH NW FLOW
CONTINUING. SEAS AVERAGE 3-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 2-3 FT WAVES
IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...JDM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031830
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
230 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH TO THE COAST INTO TONIGHT.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS AN
UPPER AIR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE THIS MORNG...BULK OF RAIN ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT
WAS PUSHING INTO SE VA AND NE NC. ANY TSTMS HAVE MOVED OFF THE
CST. SO...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SINK
SE THRU THE AREA THIS AFTN...ARRIVING IN SE VA/NE NC BY LATE THIS
AFTN OR EARLY THIS EVENG. THE BULK OF THE STEADIER RAIN WILL SHIFT
E AND OFF THE CST IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. THEN...EXPECT ADDITIONAL
SCTD SHRAS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVR THE FA. BEST (MARGINAL) INSTABILITY
LATER THIS AFTN WILL BE ACRS EXTRM SRN/SE VA AND NE NC...AND THIS
AREA HAS BEEN PLACED IN A SLGT RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS BY SPC.
PRIMARY THREAT DAMAGING WNDS/HAIL...AND IS HIGHLIGHTED IN HWO.
STILL A PROBABILITY FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS FM ANY SHRAS/TSTMS
THIS AFTN/EVENG. HI TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 60S TO THE UPR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING CONVECTION...MNLY SRN/SE VA-NE NC THIS EVE...THEN VRB-
MOSTLY CLOUDY TNGT W/ LWRG POPS. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE
50S TO NR 60F.

UNSETTLED WX WILL CONT ACRS THE FA WED THRU THU...DUE TO UPR AIR
LO PRES DROPPING FM THE GRT LKS REGION DOWN AND ACRS THE MID ATLC
REGION. WILL CARRY 30-50% POPS...ESP WED AFTN...W/ HIGHER POPS
(40-60%) THU AS THE UPR LVL LO TRACKS INTO NC. OTRW...CONTD VRB
CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS WED-THU. HI TEMPS ON WED WILL RANGE FM
THE M60S N TO L70S S. LOWS WED NGT MNLY IN THE L-M50S. HIGHS ON
THU WILL RANGE FM THE L-M60S N TO ARND 70F FAR SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST FRIDAY WITH A ~40% CHC OF SHOWERS. FORECAST
HIGHS RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE SATURDAY AS THE
LOW SLIDES FARTHER OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES MODERATE INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY SKY...WITH A 20% POP FOR THE ERN
HALF OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH THE 02/12Z GFS FASTER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
COMPARED TO THE 02/12Z ECMWF. NEVERTHELESS...MOISTURE APPEARS
LIMITED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AT THIS TIME. WARMER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE
50S. A MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO GENERALLY DRY
AND MILD CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WAS OVER THE TAF SITES AT MIDDAY. A COLD
FRONT WAS SITUATED FROM JUST N OF RIC AND SBY AND CONTINUING TO THE
W/SW MOVING VERY SLOWLY SE. CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES WERE VARYING
BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR. RADAR SHOWED WIDELY SCT LGT SHOWERS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HAVE SHOWERS AT VARIOUS TIMES IN THE TAFS
LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

HAVE THE FRONT MOVE THROUGH RIC/SBY NEXT FEW HOURS AND REACHING PHF
AND ORF OVERNIGHT. WINDS TURN TO THE NE AND CIGS LOWER TO MVFR THEN
LATER IFR BEHIND THE FRONT. AT SBY AND ORF...HAVE LIFR CIGS AND
IFR VSBYS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BASED ON CONSENSUS OF MODEL/MOS
DATA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL IN THE MORNING JUST NORTH OF
ECG.

WIDESPREAD IFR IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH ONLY SLOW
IMPROVEMENT. KEPT ALL THE TAF SITES IFR THROUGH 18Z EXCEPT SLIGHTLY
BETTER AT RIC. CONDITIONS MAY BE A LITTLE BETTER BY 18Z BUT A LOW
OVERCAST IS EXPECTED TO HANG IN FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LOW SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH PERIODS OF IFR. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PULLS SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST
WITH AN IMPROVING TREND IN AVIATION CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. S-SW WINDS 10-15 KT WILL BECOME N-NE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
THIS WIND SHIFT WILL NOT TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERNMOST WATERS
UNTIL LATE THIS EVE/TONIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH
AS THERE IS A LACK OF CAA BEHIND THE FRONT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MAINTAINING NE
FLOW AOB 15 KT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. EASTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NW AS THE LOW
DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA. LOW
PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH NW FLOW
CONTINUING. SEAS AVERAGE 3-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 2-3 FT WAVES
IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...JDM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031813
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
213 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH TO THE COAST INTO TONIGHT.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS AN
UPPER AIR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE THIS MORNG...BULK OF RAIN ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT
WAS PUSHING INTO SE VA AND NE NC. ANY TSTMS HAVE MOVED OFF THE
CST. SO...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SINK
SE THRU THE AREA THIS AFTN...ARRIVING IN SE VA/NE NC BY LATE THIS
AFTN OR EARLY THIS EVENG. THE BULK OF THE STEADIER RAIN WILL SHIFT
E AND OFF THE CST IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. THEN...EXPECT ADDITIONAL
SCTD SHRAS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVR THE FA. BEST (MARGINAL) INSTABILITY
LATER THIS AFTN WILL BE ACRS EXTRM SRN/SE VA AND NE NC...AND THIS
AREA HAS BEEN PLACED IN A SLGT RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS BY SPC.
PRIMARY THREAT DAMAGING WNDS/HAIL...AND IS HIGHLIGHTED IN HWO.
STILL A PROBABILITY FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS FM ANY SHRAS/TSTMS
THIS AFTN/EVENG. HI TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 60S TO THE UPR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING CONVECTION...MNLY SRN/SE VA-NE NC THIS EVE...THEN VRB-
MOSTLY CLOUDY TNGT W/ LWRG POPS. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE
50S TO NR 60F.

UNSETTLED WX WILL CONT ACRS THE FA WED THRU THU...DUE TO UPR AIR
LO PRES DROPPING FM THE GRT LKS REGION DOWN AND ACRS THE MID ATLC
REGION. WILL CARRY 30-50% POPS...ESP WED AFTN...W/ HIGHER POPS
(40-60%) THU AS THE UPR LVL LO TRACKS INTO NC. OTRW...CONTD VRB
CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS WED-THU. HI TEMPS ON WED WILL RANGE FM
THE M60S N TO L70S S. LOWS WED NGT MNLY IN THE L-M50S. HIGHS ON
THU WILL RANGE FM THE L-M60S N TO ARND 70F FAR SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST FRIDAY WITH A ~40% CHC OF SHOWERS. FORECAST
HIGHS RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE SATURDAY AS THE
LOW SLIDES FARTHER OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES MODERATE INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY SKY...WITH A 20% POP FOR THE ERN
HALF OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH THE 02/12Z GFS FASTER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
COMPARED TO THE 02/12Z ECMWF. NEVERTHELESS...MOISTURE APPEARS
LIMITED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AT THIS TIME. WARMER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE
50S. A MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO GENERALLY DRY
AND MILD CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WAS OVER THE TAF SITES AT MIDDAY. A COLD
FRONT WAS SITUATED FROM JUST N OF RIC AND SBY AND CONTINUING TO THE
W/SW MOVING VERY SLOWLY SE. CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES WERE VARYING
BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR. RADAR SHOWED WIDELY SCT LGT SHOWERS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

HAVE THE FRONT MOVE THROUGH RIC/SBY NEXT FEW HOURS AND REACHING PHF
AND ORF OVERNIGHT. WINDS TURN TO THE NE AND CIGS LOWER TO MVFR THEN
LATER IFR BEHIND THE FRONT. AT SBY...HAVE LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING BASED ON CONSENSUS OF MODEL/MOS DATA. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL IN THE MORNING JUST NORTH OF ECG.

WIDESPREAD IFR IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH ONLY SLOW
IMPROVEMENT. KEPT ALL THE TAF SITES IFR THROUGH 18Z EXCEPT SLIGHTLY
BETTER AT RIC. CONDITIONS MAY BE A LITTLE BETTER BY 18Z BUT A LOW
OVERCAST IS EXPECTED TO HANG IN FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LOW SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH PERIODS OF IFR. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PULLS SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST
WITH AN IMPROVING TREND IN AVIATION CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. S-SW WINDS 10-15 KT WILL BECOME N-NE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
THIS WIND SHIFT WILL NOT TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERNMOST WATERS
UNTIL LATE THIS EVE/TONIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH
AS THERE IS A LACK OF CAA BEHIND THE FRONT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MAINTAINING NE
FLOW AOB 15 KT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. EASTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NW AS THE LOW
DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA. LOW
PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH NW FLOW
CONTINUING. SEAS AVERAGE 3-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 2-3 FT WAVES
IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...JDM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031813
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
213 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH TO THE COAST INTO TONIGHT.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS AN
UPPER AIR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE THIS MORNG...BULK OF RAIN ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT
WAS PUSHING INTO SE VA AND NE NC. ANY TSTMS HAVE MOVED OFF THE
CST. SO...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SINK
SE THRU THE AREA THIS AFTN...ARRIVING IN SE VA/NE NC BY LATE THIS
AFTN OR EARLY THIS EVENG. THE BULK OF THE STEADIER RAIN WILL SHIFT
E AND OFF THE CST IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. THEN...EXPECT ADDITIONAL
SCTD SHRAS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVR THE FA. BEST (MARGINAL) INSTABILITY
LATER THIS AFTN WILL BE ACRS EXTRM SRN/SE VA AND NE NC...AND THIS
AREA HAS BEEN PLACED IN A SLGT RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS BY SPC.
PRIMARY THREAT DAMAGING WNDS/HAIL...AND IS HIGHLIGHTED IN HWO.
STILL A PROBABILITY FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS FM ANY SHRAS/TSTMS
THIS AFTN/EVENG. HI TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 60S TO THE UPR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING CONVECTION...MNLY SRN/SE VA-NE NC THIS EVE...THEN VRB-
MOSTLY CLOUDY TNGT W/ LWRG POPS. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE
50S TO NR 60F.

UNSETTLED WX WILL CONT ACRS THE FA WED THRU THU...DUE TO UPR AIR
LO PRES DROPPING FM THE GRT LKS REGION DOWN AND ACRS THE MID ATLC
REGION. WILL CARRY 30-50% POPS...ESP WED AFTN...W/ HIGHER POPS
(40-60%) THU AS THE UPR LVL LO TRACKS INTO NC. OTRW...CONTD VRB
CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS WED-THU. HI TEMPS ON WED WILL RANGE FM
THE M60S N TO L70S S. LOWS WED NGT MNLY IN THE L-M50S. HIGHS ON
THU WILL RANGE FM THE L-M60S N TO ARND 70F FAR SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST FRIDAY WITH A ~40% CHC OF SHOWERS. FORECAST
HIGHS RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE SATURDAY AS THE
LOW SLIDES FARTHER OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES MODERATE INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY SKY...WITH A 20% POP FOR THE ERN
HALF OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH THE 02/12Z GFS FASTER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
COMPARED TO THE 02/12Z ECMWF. NEVERTHELESS...MOISTURE APPEARS
LIMITED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AT THIS TIME. WARMER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE
50S. A MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO GENERALLY DRY
AND MILD CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WAS OVER THE TAF SITES AT MIDDAY. A COLD
FRONT WAS SITUATED FROM JUST N OF RIC AND SBY AND CONTINUING TO THE
W/SW MOVING VERY SLOWLY SE. CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES WERE VARYING
BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR. RADAR SHOWED WIDELY SCT LGT SHOWERS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

HAVE THE FRONT MOVE THROUGH RIC/SBY NEXT FEW HOURS AND REACHING PHF
AND ORF OVERNIGHT. WINDS TURN TO THE NE AND CIGS LOWER TO MVFR THEN
LATER IFR BEHIND THE FRONT. AT SBY...HAVE LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING BASED ON CONSENSUS OF MODEL/MOS DATA. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL IN THE MORNING JUST NORTH OF ECG.

WIDESPREAD IFR IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH ONLY SLOW
IMPROVEMENT. KEPT ALL THE TAF SITES IFR THROUGH 18Z EXCEPT SLIGHTLY
BETTER AT RIC. CONDITIONS MAY BE A LITTLE BETTER BY 18Z BUT A LOW
OVERCAST IS EXPECTED TO HANG IN FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LOW SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH PERIODS OF IFR. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PULLS SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST
WITH AN IMPROVING TREND IN AVIATION CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. S-SW WINDS 10-15 KT WILL BECOME N-NE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
THIS WIND SHIFT WILL NOT TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERNMOST WATERS
UNTIL LATE THIS EVE/TONIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH
AS THERE IS A LACK OF CAA BEHIND THE FRONT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MAINTAINING NE
FLOW AOB 15 KT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. EASTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NW AS THE LOW
DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA. LOW
PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH NW FLOW
CONTINUING. SEAS AVERAGE 3-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 2-3 FT WAVES
IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...JDM




000
FXUS61 KPHI 031748
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
148 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DRIFT FARTHER OUT TO SEA WITH ANOTHER LOW
DEVELOPING IN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE TODAY. A PIECE OF THE
LOW MAY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD CAPE COD LATE WEDNESDAY WHILE THE
PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST
LATER THIS WEEK. THE LOW MOVES OUT TO SEA SATURDAY WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOLLOWING SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD BECOME DOMINANT HERE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST AROUND 130 PM.
THE LOW WILL DRIFT EASTWARD AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA THIS AFTERNOON.
A SECONDARY LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA
AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL KEEP OUR FORECAST
AREA IN A NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR ABOVE
THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD MAINTAIN THE LOW CLOUDS OVER OUR REGION.
THE BACK EDGE OF THE DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE THE STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO WORK ITS WAY FROM WEST TO EAST OVER OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE INCREASING INSOLATION MAY
CAUSE THE LOW CLOUD DECK TO RISE A BIT AT THAT TIME.

THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WAS WELL TO OUR EAST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH MORE THAN SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER, SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND
DELAWARE FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY BASED ON SOME OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE.

THE CLOUD COVER AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM GETTING MUCH ABOVE THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN MOST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. READINGS WILL FALL SHORT OF THAT RANGE IN THE FAR
NORTH AND THEY WILL BE A BIT ABOVE THOSE VALUES IN PARTS OF
SOUTHERN DELAWARE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN SOME
TO OUR WEST DURING THE COURSE OF TONIGHT. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A MORE FOCUSED SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
UNTIL TOWARD MORNING. THE 250 MB JET IS FORECAST TO MOVE RIGHT
OVER OUR AREA TONIGHT, REMOVING THE REGION FROM THE MORE FAVORABLE
AREA OF LIFT. AS A RESULT, WE KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC RANGE AS SOME SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE IDEA OF LOW
CLOUDS CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN THE MARINE INFLUENCE, AND
THEREFORE SOME DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AS THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SOME MID LEVEL DRYING IN PLACE.

WHILE SOME FOG MAY BE AROUND IT IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE
SIGNIFICANT AS THE STRATUS MAY LIMIT THE ACTUAL DEVELOPMENT
OVERALL. THEREFORE, OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE FOG ATTM BUT THIS WILL BE
REVISITED LATER. AS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED A MOS BLEND
OVERALL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL A LOT GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER
AND DEW POINTS GENERALLY REMAINING UP DUE TO NEAR LOW-LEVEL
SATURATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IN ANY DETAILS OF THIS FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK IS AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE.

A VERTICALLY DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LATER THIS WEEK THEN WEAKEN EASTWARD THIS COMING WEEKEND IN
RESPONSE TO INTERACTION WITH A CLOSED LOW SHORT WAVE OVER HUDSON
BAY.

CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPS: ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WED-
FRI, NEAR NORMAL SAT-MON.

CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY EVENING WITH SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AFFECTING THE
REGION.

SHOWER/RAIN GENERATION IS BLAMED IN PART ON INSTABILITY AS THE
COLD POOL EVOLVES OVERHEAD WITH THE 500MB TEMP AT PHL -14C THIS
MORNING COOLING TO -23C FRIDAY, AND SOME OF IT ATLANTIC INFLOW AS
THE 850-700MB LOW MAY HUG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH DEEP
MOISTURE JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE TRACK.

MUCH OF THE TIME FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BE
RAIN-FREE BUT TIMING THE PERIODIC LULLS IN RAINFALL WAS NOT
CONFIDENTLY ASSESSED THIS MORNING.

IF IT CLEARS A BIT FOR A FEW HOURS AT NIGHT, THEN FOG COULD
DEVELOP.

OVERALL, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL AND
NIGHTTIME MINS NEAR NORMAL (NARROW DIURNALS DUE TO MOISTURE)

NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT SHOULD BRIGHTEN AND WARM
UP TO NEAR NORMAL AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADS EAST. A WEAK
COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS WITH ITS PASSAGE SUNDAY
MORNING BUT AT THIS TIME ANY RAIN OCCURRENCE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
AS PROLONGED AS WHAT MAY OCCUR LATER THIS WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE AFFECTING OUR REGION. CEILINGS ARE
FORECAST TO LOWER BACK INTO THE IFR RANGE AFTER DARK AND THEY
SHOULD REMAIN THERE WELL INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOUD BASES MAY
LIFT SLIGHTLY FROM LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN IN THE HIGH END IFR TO LOW END MVFR RANGE.
WE ARE ANTICIPATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

THE WIND WILL FAVOR THE NORTHEAST AND EAST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, AT SPEEDS MAINLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VARYING BETWEEN VFR CIGS AND
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE
PERIOD. CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO IFR AT TIMES IN THE RAIN SHOWERS.
IN A GENERAL A NORTHEAST WIND, WHICH MAY BECOME GUSTY 15 TO 20 KT
AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.

SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT WILL KEEP AN ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE. WHILE THIS MAY SOME
INCREASE FOR A TIME ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, IT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS.
SINCE THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK ENOUGH, SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO BE 4 FEET OR LESS. THEREFORE, THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY
BUILD AROUND 5 FEET IN THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SCA PROBABLE IN RESPONSE TO LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZING OFF THE NJ COAST. ATLANTIC SEAS WERE CAPPED AT
6 FEET, 1-2 FT BELOW GUIDANCE, DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE
WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW.

SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A LONG DURATION NORTHEASTERLY FETCH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF
OUR MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE APPROACH THE NEW MOON ON
FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE (6-7 PM EDT) ON WEDNESDAY EVENING,
THURSDAY EVENING AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY EVENING (WITHIN 1 HOUR OF
THE HIGH TIDE NEAR 8PM), PENDING MODELS CONTINUING TO FOCUS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND LATER THIS WEEK. THE
FRIDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE WILL ONLY NEED A SURGE OF .7 FEET
TO RAISE THE WATER LEVEL TO MINOR THRESHOLD. THERE IS EVEN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF REACHING A MODERATE THRESHOLD FRIDAY EVENING BUT
WE CANT SAY THIS WITH CONFIDENCE SINCE ITS ALL DEPENDENT ON THE
POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW FORMING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST.

AS A SIDE NOTE: IT IS OUR UNDERSTANDING THAT EVENTUALLY WE WILL
BEGIN REFERENCING COASTAL FLOODING WITH RESPECT TO MHHW WHICH WILL
EQUATE TO INUNDATION DEPTH WITH RESPECT TO NORMALLY DRY GROUND.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE TRAINING REFERENCES DURING THE TRANSITION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/IOVINO
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DRAG




000
FXUS61 KPHI 031748
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
148 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DRIFT FARTHER OUT TO SEA WITH ANOTHER LOW
DEVELOPING IN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE TODAY. A PIECE OF THE
LOW MAY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD CAPE COD LATE WEDNESDAY WHILE THE
PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST
LATER THIS WEEK. THE LOW MOVES OUT TO SEA SATURDAY WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOLLOWING SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD BECOME DOMINANT HERE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST AROUND 130 PM.
THE LOW WILL DRIFT EASTWARD AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA THIS AFTERNOON.
A SECONDARY LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA
AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL KEEP OUR FORECAST
AREA IN A NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR ABOVE
THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD MAINTAIN THE LOW CLOUDS OVER OUR REGION.
THE BACK EDGE OF THE DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE THE STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO WORK ITS WAY FROM WEST TO EAST OVER OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE INCREASING INSOLATION MAY
CAUSE THE LOW CLOUD DECK TO RISE A BIT AT THAT TIME.

THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WAS WELL TO OUR EAST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH MORE THAN SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER, SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND
DELAWARE FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY BASED ON SOME OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE.

THE CLOUD COVER AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM GETTING MUCH ABOVE THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN MOST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. READINGS WILL FALL SHORT OF THAT RANGE IN THE FAR
NORTH AND THEY WILL BE A BIT ABOVE THOSE VALUES IN PARTS OF
SOUTHERN DELAWARE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN SOME
TO OUR WEST DURING THE COURSE OF TONIGHT. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A MORE FOCUSED SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
UNTIL TOWARD MORNING. THE 250 MB JET IS FORECAST TO MOVE RIGHT
OVER OUR AREA TONIGHT, REMOVING THE REGION FROM THE MORE FAVORABLE
AREA OF LIFT. AS A RESULT, WE KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC RANGE AS SOME SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE IDEA OF LOW
CLOUDS CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN THE MARINE INFLUENCE, AND
THEREFORE SOME DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AS THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SOME MID LEVEL DRYING IN PLACE.

WHILE SOME FOG MAY BE AROUND IT IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE
SIGNIFICANT AS THE STRATUS MAY LIMIT THE ACTUAL DEVELOPMENT
OVERALL. THEREFORE, OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE FOG ATTM BUT THIS WILL BE
REVISITED LATER. AS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED A MOS BLEND
OVERALL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL A LOT GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER
AND DEW POINTS GENERALLY REMAINING UP DUE TO NEAR LOW-LEVEL
SATURATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IN ANY DETAILS OF THIS FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK IS AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE.

A VERTICALLY DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LATER THIS WEEK THEN WEAKEN EASTWARD THIS COMING WEEKEND IN
RESPONSE TO INTERACTION WITH A CLOSED LOW SHORT WAVE OVER HUDSON
BAY.

CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPS: ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WED-
FRI, NEAR NORMAL SAT-MON.

CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY EVENING WITH SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AFFECTING THE
REGION.

SHOWER/RAIN GENERATION IS BLAMED IN PART ON INSTABILITY AS THE
COLD POOL EVOLVES OVERHEAD WITH THE 500MB TEMP AT PHL -14C THIS
MORNING COOLING TO -23C FRIDAY, AND SOME OF IT ATLANTIC INFLOW AS
THE 850-700MB LOW MAY HUG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH DEEP
MOISTURE JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE TRACK.

MUCH OF THE TIME FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BE
RAIN-FREE BUT TIMING THE PERIODIC LULLS IN RAINFALL WAS NOT
CONFIDENTLY ASSESSED THIS MORNING.

IF IT CLEARS A BIT FOR A FEW HOURS AT NIGHT, THEN FOG COULD
DEVELOP.

OVERALL, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL AND
NIGHTTIME MINS NEAR NORMAL (NARROW DIURNALS DUE TO MOISTURE)

NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT SHOULD BRIGHTEN AND WARM
UP TO NEAR NORMAL AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADS EAST. A WEAK
COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS WITH ITS PASSAGE SUNDAY
MORNING BUT AT THIS TIME ANY RAIN OCCURRENCE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
AS PROLONGED AS WHAT MAY OCCUR LATER THIS WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE AFFECTING OUR REGION. CEILINGS ARE
FORECAST TO LOWER BACK INTO THE IFR RANGE AFTER DARK AND THEY
SHOULD REMAIN THERE WELL INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOUD BASES MAY
LIFT SLIGHTLY FROM LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN IN THE HIGH END IFR TO LOW END MVFR RANGE.
WE ARE ANTICIPATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

THE WIND WILL FAVOR THE NORTHEAST AND EAST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, AT SPEEDS MAINLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VARYING BETWEEN VFR CIGS AND
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE
PERIOD. CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO IFR AT TIMES IN THE RAIN SHOWERS.
IN A GENERAL A NORTHEAST WIND, WHICH MAY BECOME GUSTY 15 TO 20 KT
AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.

SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT WILL KEEP AN ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE. WHILE THIS MAY SOME
INCREASE FOR A TIME ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, IT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS.
SINCE THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK ENOUGH, SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO BE 4 FEET OR LESS. THEREFORE, THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY
BUILD AROUND 5 FEET IN THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SCA PROBABLE IN RESPONSE TO LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZING OFF THE NJ COAST. ATLANTIC SEAS WERE CAPPED AT
6 FEET, 1-2 FT BELOW GUIDANCE, DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE
WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW.

SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A LONG DURATION NORTHEASTERLY FETCH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF
OUR MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE APPROACH THE NEW MOON ON
FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE (6-7 PM EDT) ON WEDNESDAY EVENING,
THURSDAY EVENING AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY EVENING (WITHIN 1 HOUR OF
THE HIGH TIDE NEAR 8PM), PENDING MODELS CONTINUING TO FOCUS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND LATER THIS WEEK. THE
FRIDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE WILL ONLY NEED A SURGE OF .7 FEET
TO RAISE THE WATER LEVEL TO MINOR THRESHOLD. THERE IS EVEN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF REACHING A MODERATE THRESHOLD FRIDAY EVENING BUT
WE CANT SAY THIS WITH CONFIDENCE SINCE ITS ALL DEPENDENT ON THE
POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW FORMING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST.

AS A SIDE NOTE: IT IS OUR UNDERSTANDING THAT EVENTUALLY WE WILL
BEGIN REFERENCING COASTAL FLOODING WITH RESPECT TO MHHW WHICH WILL
EQUATE TO INUNDATION DEPTH WITH RESPECT TO NORMALLY DRY GROUND.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE TRAINING REFERENCES DURING THE TRANSITION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/IOVINO
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DRAG




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031743
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
143 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS. IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE FOR EARLY
MAY ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NEXT WEEK WE EXPECT A RETURN
TO WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER TYPICAL OF EARLY MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED, BUT AS DAY GOES ON
SHOULD FILL IN QUICKLY AS HEATING OCCURS.

PREVIOUS...IN GENERAL...AN ISOLD TO SCT SHOWER FORECAST WL SUFFICE
ON THE FLANK OF THE EWD SHIFTING UPR TROUGH...CENTERED OVR THE
MIDWEST THIS MRNG.

CLOUD COVER AND WEAK COLD ADVCTN UNDER THE ENCROACHING TROUGH WL
LIMIT TEMPERATURE RECOVERY TODAY. EXPECT READINGS ABOUT 5 DEGREES
UNDR THE AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO CARVE A DEEP TROUGH OVR THE ERN
CONUS BY WEDNESDAY. INCRSG POPS...CUMULATING IN LIKELY
NUMBERS...WERE MAINTAINED FOR THE ADVN AND PASSAGE OF THAT
SYSTEM...WITH SHOWER CHANCES AND COLD CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY.
EXPECT A TEMPERATURE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BY THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE ERN CONUS TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO FILL DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK...BUT MODEL WORLD IS NOT CONSISTENT IN
THE SCENARIO...EG...GFS NOW PROGGING CONTD TROUGHING FOR SUNDAY...WHICH
IS OUT OF PHASE WITH PREVIOUS SOLNS. NEVERTHELESS...DECLINING
PRECIP PROBS FROM THE WEST AND GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURE
AFTER A COLD START SHOULD DEFINE THE LONG TERM PERIOD...FORECAST
FOR WHICH WAS CONSTRUCTED VIA PERSISTENCE AND COLLABORATIVE TWEAKS
GIVEN THE OVRALL LACK OF CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPECT SOME AIRPORTS TO SEE MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES TOWARD EARLY MORNING. LOCATIONS LIKE KDUJ
WILL LIKELY HAVE IFR RESTRICTIONS. VFR BACK AGAIN ALL AIRPORTS A COUPLE
HOURS AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WED THRU FRI WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT UPR TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPHI 031544
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1144 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST
LATE THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT FARTHER OUT TO SEA WITH ANOTHER LOW
DEVELOPING IN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE TODAY. A PIECE OF THE
LOW MAY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD CAPE COD LATE WEDNESDAY WHILE THE
PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST
LATER THIS WEEK. THE LOW MOVES OUT TO SEA SATURDAY WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOLLOWING SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD BECOME DOMINANT HERE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST
AROUND 1130 AM. THE LOW WILL DRIFT EASTWARD AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA
THIS AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL KEEP OUR FORECAST
AREA IN A NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR ABOVE
THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD MAINTAIN THE LOW CLOUDS OVER OUR REGION.
THE BACK EDGE OF THE DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE THE STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO WORK ITS WAY FROM WEST TO EAST OVER OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE INCREASING INSOLATION MAY
CAUSE THE LOW CLOUD DECK TO RISE A BIT AT THAT TIME.

THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WAS WELL TO OUR EAST LATE THIS
MORNING. WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH MORE THAN SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER, SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND
DELAWARE FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY BASED ON SOME OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE.

THE CLOUD COVER AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM GETTING MUCH ABOVE THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN MOST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. READINGS WILL FALL SHORT OF THAT RANGE IN THE FAR
NORTH AND THEY WILL BE A BIT ABOVE THOSE VALUES IN PARTS OF
SOUTHERN DELAWARE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN SOME
TO OUR WEST DURING THE COURSE OF TONIGHT. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A MORE FOCUSED SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
UNTIL TOWARD MORNING. THE 250 MB JET IS FORECAST TO MOVE RIGHT
OVER OUR AREA TONIGHT, REMOVING THE REGION FROM THE MORE FAVORABLE
AREA OF LIFT. AS A RESULT, WE KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC RANGE AS SOME SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE IDEA OF LOW
CLOUDS CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN THE MARINE INFLUENCE, AND
THEREFORE SOME DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AS THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SOME MID LEVEL DRYING IN PLACE.

WHILE SOME FOG MAY BE AROUND IT IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE
SIGNIFICANT AS THE STRATUS MAY LIMIT THE ACTUAL DEVELOPMENT
OVERALL. THEREFORE, OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE FOG ATTM BUT THIS WILL BE
REVISITED LATER. AS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED A MOS BLEND
OVERALL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL A LOT GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER
AND DEW POINTS GENERALLY REMAINING UP DUE TO NEAR LOW-LEVEL
SATURATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IN ANY DETAILS OF THIS FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK IS AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE.

A VERTICALLY DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LATER THIS WEEK THEN WEAKEN EASTWARD THIS COMING WEEKEND IN
RESPONSE TO INTERACTION WITH A CLOSED LOW SHORT WAVE OVER HUDSON
BAY.

CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPS: ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WED-
FRI, NEAR NORMAL SAT-MON.

CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY EVENING WITH SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AFFECTING THE
REGION.

SHOWER/RAIN GENERATION IS BLAMED IN PART ON INSTABILITY AS THE
COLD POOL EVOLVES OVERHEAD WITH THE 500MB TEMP AT PHL -14C THIS
MORNING COOLING TO -23C FRIDAY, AND SOME OF IT ATLANTIC INFLOW AS
THE 850-700MB LOW MAY HUG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH DEEP
MOISTURE JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE TRACK.

MUCH OF THE TIME FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BE
RAIN-FREE BUT TIMING THE PERIODIC LULLS IN RAINFALL WAS NOT
CONFIDENTLY ASSESSED THIS MORNING.

IF IT CLEARS A BIT FOR A FEW HOURS AT NIGHT, THEN FOG COULD
DEVELOP.

OVERALL, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL AND
NIGHTTIME MINS NEAR NORMAL (NARROW DIURNALS DUE TO MOISTURE)

NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT SHOULD BRIGHTEN AND WARM
UP TO NEAR NORMAL AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADS EAST. A WEAK
COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS WITH ITS PASSAGE SUNDAY
MORNING BUT AT THIS TIME ANY RAIN OCCURRENCE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
AS PROLONGED AS WHAT MAY OCCUR LATER THIS WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...IFR/MVFR CEILINGS, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THE VISIBILITY WILL FAVOR VFR BIT IT MAY FALL TO
IFR IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE.OUR CONFIDENCE ON THE
EXTENT OF THE CEILING IMPROVEMENTS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON IS ON
THE LOW SIDE. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

TONIGHT...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WITH A CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW. A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS OR SOME DRIZZLE POSSIBLE, WITH LOCAL MVFR
VISIBILITY AT TIMES. NORTHEAST WINDS 3-6 KNOTS OVERALL.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VARYING BETWEEN VFR CIGS AND MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD.
CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO IFR AT TIMES IN THE RAIN SHOWERS. IN A
GENERAL A NORTHEAST WIND, WHICH MAY BECOME GUSTY 15 TO 20 KT AT
TIMES, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.

SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT WILL KEEP AN ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE. WHILE THIS MAY SOME
INCREASE FOR A TIME ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, IT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS.
SINCE THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK ENOUGH, SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO BE 4 FEET OR LESS. THEREFORE, THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY
BUILD AROUND 5 FEET IN THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SCA PROBABLE IN RESPONSE TO LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZING OFF THE NJ COAST. ATLANTIC SEAS WERE CAPPED AT
6 FEET, 1-2 FT BELOW GUIDANCE, DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE
WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW.

SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A LONG DURATION NORTHEASTERLY FETCH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF
OUR MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE APPROACH THE NEW MOON ON
FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE (6-7 PM EDT) ON WEDNESDAY EVENING,
THURSDAY EVENING AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY EVENING (WITHIN 1 HOUR OF
THE HIGH TIDE NEAR 8PM), PENDING MODELS CONTINUING TO FOCUS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND LATER THIS WEEK. THE
FRIDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE WILL ONLY NEED A SURGE OF .7 FEET
TO RAISE THE WATER LEVEL TO MINOR THRESHOLD. THERE IS EVEN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF REACHING A MODERATE THRESHOLD FRIDAY EVENING BUT
WE CANT SAY THIS WITH CONFIDENCE SINCE ITS ALL DEPENDENT ON THE
POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW FORMING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST.

AS A SIDE NOTE: IT IS OUR UNDERSTANDING THAT EVENTUALLY WE WILL
BEGIN REFERENCING COASTAL FLOODING WITH RESPECT TO MHHW WHICH WILL
EQUATE TO INUNDATION DEPTH WITH RESPECT TO NORMALLY DRY GROUND.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE TRAINING REFERENCES DURING THE TRANSITION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DRAG




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031517
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1117 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS. IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE FOR EARLY
MAY ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NEXT WEEK WE EXPECT A RETURN
TO WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED, BUT AS DAY GOES ON
SHOULD FILL IN QUICKLY AS HEATING OCCURS.

PREVIOUS...IN GENERAL...AN ISOLD TO SCT SHOWER FORECAST WL SUFFICE
ON THE FLANK OF THE EWD SHIFTING UPR TROUGH...CENTERED OVR THE
MIDWEST THIS MRNG.

CLOUD COVER AND WEAK COLD ADVCTN UNDER THE ENCROACHING TROUGH WL
LIMIT TEMPERATURE RECOVERY TODAY. EXPECT READINGS ABOUT 5 DEGREES
UNDR THE AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO CARVE A DEEP TROUGH OVR THE ERN
CONUS BY WEDNESDAY. INCRSG POPS...CUMULATING IN LIKELY
NUMBERS...WERE MAINTAINED FOR THE ADVN AND PASSAGE OF THAT
SYSTEM...WITH SHOWER CHANCES AND COLD CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY.
EXPECT A TEMPERATURE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BY THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE ERN CONUS TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO FILL DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK...BUT MODEL WORLD IS NOT CONSISTENT IN
THE SCENARIO...EG...GFS NOW PROGGING CONTD TROUGHING FOR SUNDAY...WHICH
IS OUT OF PHASE WITH PREVIOUS SOLNS. NEVERTHELESS...DECLINING
PRECIP PROBS FROM THE WEST AND GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURE
AFTER A COLD START SHOULD DEFINE THE LONG TERM PERIOD...FORECAST
FOR WHICH WAS CONSTRUCTED VIA PERSISTENCE AND COLLABORATIVE TWEAKS
GIVEN THE OVRALL LACK OF CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CEILINGS ARE LIFTING. EXPECT EXPECT VFR TO PERSIST THRU TODAY.

.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WED THRU FRI WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT UPR TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031436
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1036 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH TO THE COAST INTO TONIGHT.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS AN
UPPER AIR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE THIS MORNG...BULK OF RAIN ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT
WAS PUSHING INTO SE VA AND NE NC. ANY TSTMS HAVE MOVED OFF THE
CST. SO...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SINK
SE THRU THE AREA THIS AFTN...ARRIVING IN SE VA/NE NC BY LATE THIS
AFTN OR EARLY THIS EVENG. THE BULK OF THE STEADIER RAIN WILL SHIFT
E AND OFF THE CST IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. THEN...EXPECT ADDITIONAL
SCTD SHRAS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVR THE FA. BEST (MARGINAL) INSTABILITY
LATER THIS AFTN WILL BE ACRS EXTRM SRN/SE VA AND NE NC...AND THIS
AREA HAS BEEN PLACED IN A SLGT RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS BY SPC.
PRIMARY THREAT DAMAGING WNDS/HAIL...AND IS HIGHLIGHTED IN HWO.
STILL A PROBABILITY FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS FM ANY SHRAS/TSTMS
THIS AFTN/EVENG. HI TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 60S TO THE UPR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING CONVECTION...MNLY SRN/SE VA-NE NC THIS EVE...THEN VRB-
MOSTLY CLOUDY TNGT W/ LWRG POPS. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE
50S TO NR 60F.

UNSETTLED WX WILL CONT ACRS THE FA WED THRU THU...DUE TO UPR AIR
LO PRES DROPPING FM THE GRT LKS REGION DOWN AND ACRS THE MID ATLC
REGION. WILL CARRY 30-50% POPS...ESP WED AFTN...W/ HIGHER POPS
(40-60%) THU AS THE UPR LVL LO TRACKS INTO NC. OTRW...CONTD VRB
CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS WED-THU. HI TEMPS ON WED WILL RANGE FM
THE M60S N TO L70S S. LOWS WED NGT MNLY IN THE L-M50S. HIGHS ON
THU WILL RANGE FM THE L-M60S N TO ARND 70F FAR SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST FRIDAY WITH A ~40% CHC OF SHOWERS. FORECAST
HIGHS RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE SATURDAY AS THE
LOW SLIDES FARTHER OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES MODERATE INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY SKY...WITH A 20% POP FOR THE ERN
HALF OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH THE 02/12Z GFS FASTER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
COMPARED TO THE 02/12Z ECMWF. NEVERTHELESS...MOISTURE APPEARS
LIMITED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AT THIS TIME. WARMER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE
50S. A MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO GENERALLY DRY
AND MILD CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-RA WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THRU MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON.
PCPN WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
PARTIAL CLEARING (IMPROVING CIGS) OCCURING AS WELL.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL WX SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. REDUCED
FLIGHT CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. S-SW WINDS 10-15 KT WILL BECOME N-NE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
THIS WIND SHIFT WILL NOT TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERNMOST WATERS
UNTIL LATE THIS EVE/TONIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH
AS THERE IS A LACK OF CAA BEHIND THE FRONT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MAINTAINING NE
FLOW AOB 15 KT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. EASTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NW AS THE LOW
DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA. LOW
PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH NW FLOW
CONTINUING. SEAS AVERAGE 3-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 2-3 FT WAVES
IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031402
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1002 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS. IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE FOR EARLY
MAY ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NEXT WEEK WE EXPECT A RETURN
TO WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REMOVED CHANCES OF RAIN AROUND THE PITTSBURGH METRO AREAS UNTIL
THIS AFTERNOON. SATTELITE SHOWS SOME BREAKS IN THE COULDS OVER
EASTERN OH AND SOUTHWESDT PA, BUT SHOULD FILL IN QUICKLY AS
HEATING OCCURS.

PREVIOUS...IN GENERAL...AN ISOLD TO SCT SHOWER FORECAST WL SUFFICE
ON THE FLANK OF THE EWD SHIFTING UPR TROUGH...CENTERED OVR THE
MIDWEST THIS MRNG.

CLOUD COVER AND WEAK COLD ADVCTN UNDER THE ENCROACHING TROUGH WL
LIMIT TEMPERATURE RECOVERY TODAY. EXPECT READINGS ABOUT 5 DEGREES
UNDR THE AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO CARVE A DEEP TROUGH OVR THE ERN
CONUS BY WEDNESDAY. INCRSG POPS...CUMULATING IN LIKELY
NUMBERS...WERE MAINTAINED FOR THE ADVN AND PASSAGE OF THAT
SYSTEM...WITH SHOWER CHANCES AND COLD CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY.
EXPECT A TEMPERATURE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BY THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE ERN CONUS TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO FILL DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK...BUT MODEL WORLD IS NOT CONSISTENT IN
THE SCENARIO...EG...GFS NOW PROGGING CONTD TROUGHING FOR SUNDAY...WHICH
IS OUT OF PHASE WITH PREVIOUS SOLNS. NEVERTHELESS...DECLINING
PRECIP PROBS FROM THE WEST AND GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURE
AFTER A COLD START SHOULD DEFINE THE LONG TERM PERIOD...FORECAST
FOR WHICH WAS CONSTRUCTED VIA PERSISTENCE AND COLLABORATIVE TWEAKS
GIVEN THE OVRALL LACK OF CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VIDIBILITY HAS IMPROVED EXCEPT FOR SOME RETRICTION AT KDUJ.
CEILING ARE LIFTING. EXPECT MVFR TO PERSIST THRU 16Z. STRATOCU
SHOULD CONTINUE THRU THIS EVE WITH AN APPROACHING UPR
TROF...THOUGH CIGS HEIGHTS FOR ALL PORTS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY
16-17Z AS MIXING INCREASES.

.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WED THRU FRI WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT UPR TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031402
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1002 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS. IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE FOR EARLY
MAY ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NEXT WEEK WE EXPECT A RETURN
TO WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REMOVED CHANCES OF RAIN AROUND THE PITTSBURGH METRO AREAS UNTIL
THIS AFTERNOON. SATTELITE SHOWS SOME BREAKS IN THE COULDS OVER
EASTERN OH AND SOUTHWESDT PA, BUT SHOULD FILL IN QUICKLY AS
HEATING OCCURS.

PREVIOUS...IN GENERAL...AN ISOLD TO SCT SHOWER FORECAST WL SUFFICE
ON THE FLANK OF THE EWD SHIFTING UPR TROUGH...CENTERED OVR THE
MIDWEST THIS MRNG.

CLOUD COVER AND WEAK COLD ADVCTN UNDER THE ENCROACHING TROUGH WL
LIMIT TEMPERATURE RECOVERY TODAY. EXPECT READINGS ABOUT 5 DEGREES
UNDR THE AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO CARVE A DEEP TROUGH OVR THE ERN
CONUS BY WEDNESDAY. INCRSG POPS...CUMULATING IN LIKELY
NUMBERS...WERE MAINTAINED FOR THE ADVN AND PASSAGE OF THAT
SYSTEM...WITH SHOWER CHANCES AND COLD CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY.
EXPECT A TEMPERATURE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BY THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE ERN CONUS TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO FILL DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK...BUT MODEL WORLD IS NOT CONSISTENT IN
THE SCENARIO...EG...GFS NOW PROGGING CONTD TROUGHING FOR SUNDAY...WHICH
IS OUT OF PHASE WITH PREVIOUS SOLNS. NEVERTHELESS...DECLINING
PRECIP PROBS FROM THE WEST AND GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURE
AFTER A COLD START SHOULD DEFINE THE LONG TERM PERIOD...FORECAST
FOR WHICH WAS CONSTRUCTED VIA PERSISTENCE AND COLLABORATIVE TWEAKS
GIVEN THE OVRALL LACK OF CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VIDIBILITY HAS IMPROVED EXCEPT FOR SOME RETRICTION AT KDUJ.
CEILING ARE LIFTING. EXPECT MVFR TO PERSIST THRU 16Z. STRATOCU
SHOULD CONTINUE THRU THIS EVE WITH AN APPROACHING UPR
TROF...THOUGH CIGS HEIGHTS FOR ALL PORTS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY
16-17Z AS MIXING INCREASES.

.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WED THRU FRI WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT UPR TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KLWX 031344
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
944 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN WEDNESDAY. A LARGE AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...NW FLOW IS TAKING OVER WITH
BLENDED TPW PRODUCT INDICATING DRY AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. AS
SFC FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH WITH NOT MUCH LIFT
AVAILABLE TODAY OTHER THAN A CONVERGENCE LINE SETTING UP ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE ACCORDING TO MODELS. A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE STILL
LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON AND TRACK
EWD BUT INSTABILITY IS MUCH LOWER THAN YDAY. NO SEVERE WX EXPECTED
TODAY. HIGHS ONLY ABOUT 70F TODAY UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LOWEST POPS OF THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGES INTO THE AREA AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING CLOSED LOW.
CLOUDY WITH LOWS AROUND 50F WEST TO LOW TO MID 50S EAST.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS SE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN
TO THE CAROLINA COAST. PLENTY OF LIFT IN THIS TIME FOR SHOWERS AND
JUST ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT
INTERMITTENT...MAINLY LIGHT RAIN. THIS SHOULD HELP RECOUP THE
PRECIP DEFICIT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WHILE THE ROCKY MTNS WL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPR LVL
RDG THU/FRI THE ERN U.S. WL BE XPRNCG A LARGE TROF. THIS WL BE
MAKE MID ATLC WX CLDY COOL AND SHOWERY. HIGHS WL BE IN 60-65
RNG...LOWS A50.

TROF WL LIFT TO THE NE SAT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A WEAK INDUCED RDG
TO RETURN TO THE AREA...BRINGING SOME SUNSHINE AND A RETURN TO
HIGHS IN THE 70S. A WEAK CD FNT IS XPCTD TO PASS THRU THE MID ATLC
SUNDAY...PERHAPS BRINGING A FEW RW TO THE AREA. HIGH PRES OVR THE
RGN NEXT MON. HIGHS RMNG IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR CONDS THROUGH THE MORNING AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS AND SHIFTS EAST.
NELY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
SW OF THE DC METROS IN MAINLY MVFR CONDS.

RAIN TAPERS OFF IN BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT...THOUGH LOW CLOUDS
PERSIST...POSSIBLE IFR CONDS AGAIN.

LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES WEDNESDAY AND CROSSEST THURSDAY WITH
INTERMITTENT SHOWERS BOTH DAYS.

SUB-VFR CONDS LKLY THU/FRI IN LOWERED CIGS...THEN A RETURN TO VFR
CONDS SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
NLY WIND TURNS NELY THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM
THE AREA. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO PROBS FORESEEN ON THE WATERS THU/FRI XCPT OVC SKIES/RW.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...ABW
AVIATION...LFR/ABW
MARINE...LFR/ABW




000
FXUS61 KPHI 031300
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
900 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR DELAWARE BAY AT MID MORNING WILL
PASS OFF THE COAST WITH ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING IN THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION LATER TODAY. A PIECE OF THE LOW MAY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD
CAPE COD LATE WEDNESDAY WHILE THE PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATER THIS WEEK. THE LOW MOVES
OUT TO SEA SATURDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOLLOWING
SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BECOME DOMINANT HERE EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED IN THE DELAWARE BAY VICINITY AROUND 830
AM. THE LOW WILL DRIFT EASTWARD AND OUT TO SEA TODAY. A SECONDARY
LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA AND
NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON.

THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL KEEP OUR FORECAST
AREA IN A NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR ABOVE
THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD MAINTAIN THE LOW CLOUDS OVER OUR REGION.

THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WAS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AND OUT OF
OUR AREA AT MID MORNING. WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER, SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND DELAWARE FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY
BASED ON SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

THE CLOUD COVER AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM GETTING MUCH ABOVE THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN OUR
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN SOME
TO OUR WEST DURING THE COURSE OF TONIGHT. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A MORE FOCUSED SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
UNTIL TOWARD MORNING. THE 250 MB JET IS FORECAST TO MOVE RIGHT
OVER OUR AREA TONIGHT, REMOVING THE REGION FROM THE MORE FAVORABLE
AREA OF LIFT. AS A RESULT, WE KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC RANGE AS SOME SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE IDEA OF LOW
CLOUDS CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN THE MARINE INFLUENCE, AND
THEREFORE SOME DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AS THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SOME MID LEVEL DRYING IN PLACE.

WHILE SOME FOG MAY BE AROUND IT IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE
SIGNIFICANT AS THE STRATUS MAY LIMIT THE ACTUAL DEVELOPMENT
OVERALL. THEREFORE, OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE FOG ATTM BUT THIS WILL BE
REVISITED LATER. AS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED A MOS BLEND
OVERALL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL A LOT GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER
AND DEW POINTS GENERALLY REMAINING UP DUE TO NEAR LOW-LEVEL
SATURATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IN ANY DETAILS OF THIS FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK IS AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE.

A VERTICALLY DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LATER THIS WEEK THEN WEAKEN EASTWARD THIS COMING WEEKEND IN
RESPONSE TO INTERACTION WITH A CLOSED LOW SHORT WAVE OVER HUDSON
BAY.

CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPS: ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WED-
FRI, NEAR NORMAL SAT-MON.

CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY EVENING WITH SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AFFECTING THE
REGION.

SHOWER/RAIN GENERATION IS BLAMED IN PART ON INSTABILITY AS THE
COLD POOL EVOLVES OVERHEAD WITH THE 500MB TEMP AT PHL -14C THIS
MORNING COOLING TO -23C FRIDAY, AND SOME OF IT ATLANTIC INFLOW AS
THE 850-700MB LOW MAY HUG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH DEEP
MOISTURE JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE TRACK.

MUCH OF THE TIME FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BE
RAIN-FREE BUT TIMING THE PERIODIC LULLS IN RAINFALL WAS NOT
CONFIDENTLY ASSESSED THIS MORNING.

IF IT CLEARS A BIT FOR A FEW HOURS AT NIGHT, THEN FOG COULD
DEVELOP.

OVERALL, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL AND
NIGHTTIME MINS NEAR NORMAL (NARROW DIURNALS DUE TO MOISTURE)

NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT SHOULD BRIGHTEN AND WARM
UP TO NEAR NORMAL AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADS EAST. A WEAK
COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS WITH ITS PASSAGE SUNDAY
MORNING BUT AT THIS TIME ANY RAIN OCCURRENCE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
AS PROLONGED AS WHAT MAY OCCUR LATER THIS WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE VISIBILITY WILL FAVOR VFR NOW THAT THE RAIN SHOWERS
ARE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION. OUR CONFIDENCE HOWEVER
ON THE EXTENT OF THE CEILING IMPROVEMENTS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
IS ON THE LOWER SIDE. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR
LESS.

TONIGHT...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WITH A CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW. A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS OR SOME DRIZZLE POSSIBLE, WITH LOCAL MVFR
VISIBILITY AT TIMES. NORTHEAST WINDS 3-6 KNOTS OVERALL.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VARYING BETWEEN VFR CIGS AND MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD.
CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO IFR AT TIMES IN THE RAIN SHOWERS. IN A
GENERAL A NORTHEAST WIND, WHICH MAY BECOME GUSTY 15 TO 20 KT AT
TIMES, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.

SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL
KEEP AN ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE. WHILE THIS MAY SOME INCREASE FOR A
TIME ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, IT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS. SINCE
THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK ENOUGH, SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
4 FEET OR LESS. THEREFORE, THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY
BUILD AROUND 5 FEET IN THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SCA PROBABLE IN RESPONSE TO LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZING OFF THE NJ COAST. ATLANTIC SEAS WERE CAPPED AT
6 FEET, 1-2 FT BELOW GUIDANCE, DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE
WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW.

SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A LONG DURATION NORTHEASTERLY FETCH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF
OUR MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE APPROACH THE NEW MOON ON
FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE (6-7 PM EDT) ON WEDNESDAY EVENING,
THURSDAY EVENING AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY EVENING (WITHIN 1 HOUR OF
THE HIGH TIDE NEAR 8PM), PENDING MODELS CONTINUING TO FOCUS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND LATER THIS WEEK. THE
FRIDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE WILL ONLY NEED A SURGE OF .7 FEET
TO RAISE THE WATER LEVEL TO MINOR THRESHOLD. THERE IS EVEN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF REACHING A MODERATE THRESHOLD FRIDAY EVENING BUT
WE CANT SAY THIS WITH CONFIDENCE SINCE ITS ALL DEPENDENT ON THE
POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW FORMING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST.

AS A SIDE NOTE: IT IS OUR UNDERSTANDING THAT EVENTUALLY WE WILL
BEGIN REFERENCING COASTAL FLOODING WITH RESPECT TO MHHW WHICH WILL
EQUATE TO INUNDATION DEPTH WITH RESPECT TO NORMALLY DRY GROUND.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE TRAINING REFERENCES DURING THE TRANSITION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DRAG




000
FXUS61 KPHI 031300
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
900 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR DELAWARE BAY AT MID MORNING WILL
PASS OFF THE COAST WITH ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING IN THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION LATER TODAY. A PIECE OF THE LOW MAY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD
CAPE COD LATE WEDNESDAY WHILE THE PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATER THIS WEEK. THE LOW MOVES
OUT TO SEA SATURDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOLLOWING
SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BECOME DOMINANT HERE EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED IN THE DELAWARE BAY VICINITY AROUND 830
AM. THE LOW WILL DRIFT EASTWARD AND OUT TO SEA TODAY. A SECONDARY
LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA AND
NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON.

THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL KEEP OUR FORECAST
AREA IN A NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR ABOVE
THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD MAINTAIN THE LOW CLOUDS OVER OUR REGION.

THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WAS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AND OUT OF
OUR AREA AT MID MORNING. WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER, SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND DELAWARE FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY
BASED ON SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

THE CLOUD COVER AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM GETTING MUCH ABOVE THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN OUR
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN SOME
TO OUR WEST DURING THE COURSE OF TONIGHT. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A MORE FOCUSED SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
UNTIL TOWARD MORNING. THE 250 MB JET IS FORECAST TO MOVE RIGHT
OVER OUR AREA TONIGHT, REMOVING THE REGION FROM THE MORE FAVORABLE
AREA OF LIFT. AS A RESULT, WE KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC RANGE AS SOME SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE IDEA OF LOW
CLOUDS CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN THE MARINE INFLUENCE, AND
THEREFORE SOME DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AS THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SOME MID LEVEL DRYING IN PLACE.

WHILE SOME FOG MAY BE AROUND IT IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE
SIGNIFICANT AS THE STRATUS MAY LIMIT THE ACTUAL DEVELOPMENT
OVERALL. THEREFORE, OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE FOG ATTM BUT THIS WILL BE
REVISITED LATER. AS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED A MOS BLEND
OVERALL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL A LOT GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER
AND DEW POINTS GENERALLY REMAINING UP DUE TO NEAR LOW-LEVEL
SATURATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IN ANY DETAILS OF THIS FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK IS AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE.

A VERTICALLY DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LATER THIS WEEK THEN WEAKEN EASTWARD THIS COMING WEEKEND IN
RESPONSE TO INTERACTION WITH A CLOSED LOW SHORT WAVE OVER HUDSON
BAY.

CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPS: ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WED-
FRI, NEAR NORMAL SAT-MON.

CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY EVENING WITH SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AFFECTING THE
REGION.

SHOWER/RAIN GENERATION IS BLAMED IN PART ON INSTABILITY AS THE
COLD POOL EVOLVES OVERHEAD WITH THE 500MB TEMP AT PHL -14C THIS
MORNING COOLING TO -23C FRIDAY, AND SOME OF IT ATLANTIC INFLOW AS
THE 850-700MB LOW MAY HUG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH DEEP
MOISTURE JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE TRACK.

MUCH OF THE TIME FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BE
RAIN-FREE BUT TIMING THE PERIODIC LULLS IN RAINFALL WAS NOT
CONFIDENTLY ASSESSED THIS MORNING.

IF IT CLEARS A BIT FOR A FEW HOURS AT NIGHT, THEN FOG COULD
DEVELOP.

OVERALL, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL AND
NIGHTTIME MINS NEAR NORMAL (NARROW DIURNALS DUE TO MOISTURE)

NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT SHOULD BRIGHTEN AND WARM
UP TO NEAR NORMAL AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADS EAST. A WEAK
COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS WITH ITS PASSAGE SUNDAY
MORNING BUT AT THIS TIME ANY RAIN OCCURRENCE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
AS PROLONGED AS WHAT MAY OCCUR LATER THIS WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE VISIBILITY WILL FAVOR VFR NOW THAT THE RAIN SHOWERS
ARE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION. OUR CONFIDENCE HOWEVER
ON THE EXTENT OF THE CEILING IMPROVEMENTS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
IS ON THE LOWER SIDE. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR
LESS.

TONIGHT...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WITH A CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW. A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS OR SOME DRIZZLE POSSIBLE, WITH LOCAL MVFR
VISIBILITY AT TIMES. NORTHEAST WINDS 3-6 KNOTS OVERALL.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VARYING BETWEEN VFR CIGS AND MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD.
CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO IFR AT TIMES IN THE RAIN SHOWERS. IN A
GENERAL A NORTHEAST WIND, WHICH MAY BECOME GUSTY 15 TO 20 KT AT
TIMES, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.

SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL
KEEP AN ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE. WHILE THIS MAY SOME INCREASE FOR A
TIME ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, IT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS. SINCE
THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK ENOUGH, SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
4 FEET OR LESS. THEREFORE, THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY
BUILD AROUND 5 FEET IN THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SCA PROBABLE IN RESPONSE TO LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZING OFF THE NJ COAST. ATLANTIC SEAS WERE CAPPED AT
6 FEET, 1-2 FT BELOW GUIDANCE, DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE
WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW.

SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A LONG DURATION NORTHEASTERLY FETCH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF
OUR MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE APPROACH THE NEW MOON ON
FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE (6-7 PM EDT) ON WEDNESDAY EVENING,
THURSDAY EVENING AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY EVENING (WITHIN 1 HOUR OF
THE HIGH TIDE NEAR 8PM), PENDING MODELS CONTINUING TO FOCUS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND LATER THIS WEEK. THE
FRIDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE WILL ONLY NEED A SURGE OF .7 FEET
TO RAISE THE WATER LEVEL TO MINOR THRESHOLD. THERE IS EVEN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF REACHING A MODERATE THRESHOLD FRIDAY EVENING BUT
WE CANT SAY THIS WITH CONFIDENCE SINCE ITS ALL DEPENDENT ON THE
POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW FORMING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST.

AS A SIDE NOTE: IT IS OUR UNDERSTANDING THAT EVENTUALLY WE WILL
BEGIN REFERENCING COASTAL FLOODING WITH RESPECT TO MHHW WHICH WILL
EQUATE TO INUNDATION DEPTH WITH RESPECT TO NORMALLY DRY GROUND.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE TRAINING REFERENCES DURING THE TRANSITION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DRAG




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031051
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
651 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH TO THE COAST INTO TONIGHT.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS AN
UPPER AIR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUICK UPDATE TO UP POPS (TO 80-100%) ACRS MUCH OF THE FA FOR THE
REST OF THE MRNG. ALSO...ADDED ISOLD TSTMS TO SE VA/NE NC.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
CORRIDOR OF WIDESPREAD RA/ISOLD TSTMS EXTENDS FM THE LWR MD ERN
SHORE SW TO SCNTRL VA. THE ENTIRE AREA HAS BEEN SLO TO PUSH E THE
PAST FEW HRS. A CDFNT WAS FOUND JUST NW OF THE FA INVOF THE MTNS.
MDLS CONT TO PUSH NUMEROUS (MNLY) SHRAS TO THE E THROUGH THIS MRNG
AS CDFNT SETTLES SE INTO THE FA. THAT CDFNT ARRIVES IN SE VA/NE NC
BY LT THIS AFTN. BULK OF THE RA XPCD TO SHIFT E AND OFF THE CST BY
MID AFTN. AFT THAT...ADDITIONAL SHRAS/SCT TSTMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
OVR THE FA. BEST (MARGINAL) INSTABILITY LATER TDA WILL BE ACRS SRN
VA/NE NC...AND THAT AREA HAS BEEN PLACED IN A SLGT RISK FOR SEVERE
TSTMS BY SPC. PRIMARY THREAT DAMAGING WNDS/HAIL...AND WILL BE
HIGHLIGHTED IN HWO. RA EARLY TDA NOT LIKELY TO BE TOO HEAVY.
HIGHER PROB FOR LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS FM ANY SHRA/TSTM THIS
AFTN/EVE. HI TEMPS FM THE U60S- L70S N TO THE U70S-ARND 80F S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING CONVECTION...MNLY SRN/SE VA-NE NC THIS EVE...THEN VRB-
MOSTLY CLOUDY TNGT W/ LWRG POPS. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE
50S TO NR 60F.

UNSETTLED WX WILL CONT ACRS THE FA WED THRU THU...DUE TO UPR AIR
LO PRES DROPPING FM THE GRT LKS REGION DOWN AND ACRS THE MID ATLC
REGION. WILL CARRY 30-50% POPS...ESP WED AFTN...W/ HIGHER POPS
(40-60%) THU AS THE UPR LVL LO TRACKS INTO NC. OTRW...CONTD VRB
CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS WED-THU. HI TEMPS ON WED WILL RANGE FM
THE M60S N TO L70S S. LOWS WED NGT MNLY IN THE L-M50S. HIGHS ON
THU WILL RANGE FM THE L-M60S N TO ARND 70F FAR SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST FRIDAY WITH A ~40% CHC OF SHOWERS. FORECAST
HIGHS RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE SATURDAY AS THE
LOW SLIDES FARTHER OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES MODERATE INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY SKY...WITH A 20% POP FOR THE ERN
HALF OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH THE 02/12Z GFS FASTER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
COMPARED TO THE 02/12Z ECMWF. NEVERTHELESS...MOISTURE APPEARS
LIMITED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AT THIS TIME. WARMER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE
50S. A MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO GENERALLY DRY
AND MILD CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-RA WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THRU MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON.
PCPN WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
PARTIAL CLEARING (IMPROVING CIGS) OCCURING AS WELL.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL WX SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. REDUCED
FLIGHT CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. S-SW WINDS 10-15 KT WILL BECOME N-NE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
THIS WIND SHIFT WILL NOT TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERNMOST WATERS
UNTIL LATE THIS EVE/TONIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH
AS THERE IS A LACK OF CAA BEHIND THE FRONT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MAINTAINING NE
FLOW AOB 15 KT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. EASTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NW AS THE LOW
DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA. LOW
PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH NW FLOW
CONTINUING. SEAS AVERAGE 3-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 2-3 FT WAVES
IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031025
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
625 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL MAINTAIN DAILY RAIN CHANCES
THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE NEAR DAWN UPDATE. PREVIOUS...IN
GENERAL...AN ISOLD TO SCT SHOWER FORECAST WL SUFFICE ON THE FLANK
OF THE EWD SHIFTING UPR TROUGH...CENTERED OVR THE MIDWEST THIS
MRNG.

CLOUD COVER AND WEAK COLD ADVCTN UNDER THE ENCROACHING TROUGH WL
LIMIT TEMPERATURE RECOVERY TODAY. EXPECT READINGS ABOUT 5 DEGREES
UNDR THE AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO CARVE A DEEP TROUGH OVR THE ERN
CONUS BY WEDNESDAY. INCRSG POPS...CUMULATING IN LIKELY
NUMBERS...WERE MAINTAINED FOR THE ADVN AND PASSAGE OF THAT
SYSTEM...WITH SHOWER CHANCES AND COLD CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY.
EXPECT A TEMPERATURE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BY THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE ERN CONUS TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO FILL DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK...BUT MODEL WORLD IS NOT CONSISTENT IN
THE SCENARIO...EG...GFS NOW PROGGING CONTD TROUGHING FOR SUNDAY...WHICH
IS OUT OF PHASE WITH PREVIOUS SOLNS. NEVERTHELESS...DECLINING
PRECIP PROBS FROM THE WEST AND GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURE
AFTER A COLD START SHOULD DEFINE THE LONG TERM PERIOD...FORECAST
FOR WHICH WAS CONSTRUCTED VIA PERSISTENCE AND COLLABORATIVE TWEAKS
GIVEN THE OVRALL LACK OF CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR WITH OCNL IFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST THRU ERLY THIS MRNG
WITH AN EXITING SHORTWAVE. STRATOCU SHOULD CONTINUE THRU THIS EVE
WITH AN APPROACHING UPR TROF...THOUGH CIGS HEIGHTS FOR ALL PORTS
SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY LATE MRNG AS MIXING INCREASES.

.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WED THRU FRI WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT UPR TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031016
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
616 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH TO THE COAST INTO TONIGHT.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS AN
UPPER AIR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUICK UPDATE TO UP POPS (TO 80-100%) ACRS MUCH OF THE FA FOR THE
REST OF THE MRNG. ALSO...ADDED ISOLD TSTMS TO SE VA/NE NC.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
CORRIDOR OF WIDESPREAD RA/ISOLD TSTMS EXTENDS FM THE LWR MD ERN
SHORE SW TO SCNTRL VA. THE ENTIRE AREA HAS BEEN SLO TO PUSH E THE
PAST FEW HRS. A CDFNT WAS FOUND JUST NW OF THE FA INVOF THE MTNS.
MDLS CONT TO PUSH NUMEROUS (MNLY) SHRAS TO THE E THROUGH THIS MRNG
AS CDFNT SETTLES SE INTO THE FA. THAT CDFNT ARRIVES IN SE VA/NE NC
BY LT THIS AFTN. BULK OF THE RA XPCD TO SHIFT E AND OFF THE CST BY
MID AFTN. AFT THAT...ADDITIONAL SHRAS/SCT TSTMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
OVR THE FA. BEST (MARGINAL) INSTABILITY LATER TDA WILL BE ACRS SRN
VA/NE NC...AND THAT AREA HAS BEEN PLACED IN A SLGT RISK FOR SEVERE
TSTMS BY SPC. PRIMARY THREAT DAMAGING WNDS/HAIL...AND WILL BE
HIGHLIGHTED IN HWO. RA EARLY TDA NOT LIKELY TO BE TOO HEAVY.
HIGHER PROB FOR LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS FM ANY SHRA/TSTM THIS
AFTN/EVE. HI TEMPS FM THE U60S- L70S N TO THE U70S-ARND 80F S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING CONVECTION...MNLY SRN/SE VA-NE NC THIS EVE...THEN VRB-
MOSTLY CLOUDY TNGT W/ LWRG POPS. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE
50S TO NR 60F.

UNSETTLED WX WILL CONT ACRS THE FA WED THRU THU...DUE TO UPR AIR
LO PRES DROPPING FM THE GRT LKS REGION DOWN AND ACRS THE MID ATLC
REGION. WILL CARRY 30-50% POPS...ESP WED AFTN...W/ HIGHER POPS
(40-60%) THU AS THE UPR LVL LO TRACKS INTO NC. OTRW...CONTD VRB
CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS WED-THU. HI TEMPS ON WED WILL RANGE FM
THE M60S N TO L70S S. LOWS WED NGT MNLY IN THE L-M50S. HIGHS ON
THU WILL RANGE FM THE L-M60S N TO ARND 70F FAR SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST FRIDAY WITH A ~40% CHC OF SHOWERS. FORECAST
HIGHS RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE SATURDAY AS THE
LOW SLIDES FARTHER OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES MODERATE INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY SKY...WITH A 20% POP FOR THE ERN
HALF OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH THE 02/12Z GFS FASTER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
COMPARED TO THE 02/12Z ECMWF. NEVERTHELESS...MOISTURE APPEARS
LIMITED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AT THIS TIME. WARMER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE
50S. A MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO GENERALLY DRY
AND MILD CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN AND ISOLD TSTMS WILL IMPACT KRIC AND KSBY FOR MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...CONTINUING THRU MIDDAY TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL REACH THE SE TAF SITES BETWEEN 07Z-11Z...AND THEN CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. PCPN WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURING AS WELL.
MVFR/IFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE PCPN THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE
IMPROVING.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL WX SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. REDUCED
FLIGHT CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. S-SW WINDS 10-15 KT WILL BECOME N-NE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
THIS WIND SHIFT WILL NOT TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERNMOST WATERS
UNTIL LATE THIS EVE/TONIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH
AS THERE IS A LACK OF CAA BEHIND THE FRONT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MAINTAINING NE
FLOW AOB 15 KT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. EASTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NW AS THE LOW
DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA. LOW
PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH NW FLOW
CONTINUING. SEAS AVERAGE 3-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 2-3 FT WAVES
IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031016
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
616 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH TO THE COAST INTO TONIGHT.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS AN
UPPER AIR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUICK UPDATE TO UP POPS (TO 80-100%) ACRS MUCH OF THE FA FOR THE
REST OF THE MRNG. ALSO...ADDED ISOLD TSTMS TO SE VA/NE NC.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
CORRIDOR OF WIDESPREAD RA/ISOLD TSTMS EXTENDS FM THE LWR MD ERN
SHORE SW TO SCNTRL VA. THE ENTIRE AREA HAS BEEN SLO TO PUSH E THE
PAST FEW HRS. A CDFNT WAS FOUND JUST NW OF THE FA INVOF THE MTNS.
MDLS CONT TO PUSH NUMEROUS (MNLY) SHRAS TO THE E THROUGH THIS MRNG
AS CDFNT SETTLES SE INTO THE FA. THAT CDFNT ARRIVES IN SE VA/NE NC
BY LT THIS AFTN. BULK OF THE RA XPCD TO SHIFT E AND OFF THE CST BY
MID AFTN. AFT THAT...ADDITIONAL SHRAS/SCT TSTMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
OVR THE FA. BEST (MARGINAL) INSTABILITY LATER TDA WILL BE ACRS SRN
VA/NE NC...AND THAT AREA HAS BEEN PLACED IN A SLGT RISK FOR SEVERE
TSTMS BY SPC. PRIMARY THREAT DAMAGING WNDS/HAIL...AND WILL BE
HIGHLIGHTED IN HWO. RA EARLY TDA NOT LIKELY TO BE TOO HEAVY.
HIGHER PROB FOR LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS FM ANY SHRA/TSTM THIS
AFTN/EVE. HI TEMPS FM THE U60S- L70S N TO THE U70S-ARND 80F S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING CONVECTION...MNLY SRN/SE VA-NE NC THIS EVE...THEN VRB-
MOSTLY CLOUDY TNGT W/ LWRG POPS. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE
50S TO NR 60F.

UNSETTLED WX WILL CONT ACRS THE FA WED THRU THU...DUE TO UPR AIR
LO PRES DROPPING FM THE GRT LKS REGION DOWN AND ACRS THE MID ATLC
REGION. WILL CARRY 30-50% POPS...ESP WED AFTN...W/ HIGHER POPS
(40-60%) THU AS THE UPR LVL LO TRACKS INTO NC. OTRW...CONTD VRB
CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS WED-THU. HI TEMPS ON WED WILL RANGE FM
THE M60S N TO L70S S. LOWS WED NGT MNLY IN THE L-M50S. HIGHS ON
THU WILL RANGE FM THE L-M60S N TO ARND 70F FAR SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST FRIDAY WITH A ~40% CHC OF SHOWERS. FORECAST
HIGHS RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE SATURDAY AS THE
LOW SLIDES FARTHER OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES MODERATE INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY SKY...WITH A 20% POP FOR THE ERN
HALF OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH THE 02/12Z GFS FASTER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
COMPARED TO THE 02/12Z ECMWF. NEVERTHELESS...MOISTURE APPEARS
LIMITED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AT THIS TIME. WARMER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE
50S. A MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO GENERALLY DRY
AND MILD CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN AND ISOLD TSTMS WILL IMPACT KRIC AND KSBY FOR MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...CONTINUING THRU MIDDAY TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL REACH THE SE TAF SITES BETWEEN 07Z-11Z...AND THEN CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. PCPN WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURING AS WELL.
MVFR/IFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE PCPN THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE
IMPROVING.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL WX SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. REDUCED
FLIGHT CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. S-SW WINDS 10-15 KT WILL BECOME N-NE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
THIS WIND SHIFT WILL NOT TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERNMOST WATERS
UNTIL LATE THIS EVE/TONIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH
AS THERE IS A LACK OF CAA BEHIND THE FRONT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MAINTAINING NE
FLOW AOB 15 KT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. EASTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NW AS THE LOW
DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA. LOW
PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH NW FLOW
CONTINUING. SEAS AVERAGE 3-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 2-3 FT WAVES
IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM




000
FXUS61 KPHI 030947
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
547 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER DELAWARE THIS MORNING WILL
RELOCATE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY. A PIECE OF THE
LOW MAY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD CAPE COD LATE WEDNESDAY WHILE THE
PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATER
THIS WEEK. THE LOW MOVES OUT TO SEA SATURDAY WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOLLOWING SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
BECOME DOMINANT HERE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS WELL TO OUR WEST TODAY. THIS RESULTS
IN THE MAINTENANCE OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A SHORT WAVE
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE TO OUR NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING, TAKING MUCH OF THE FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH IT. AS A RESULT,
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL MOSTLY TAPER OFF LATER THIS MORNING FROM WEST
TO EAST WITH SOME SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE THEREAFTER.

AS OF 0940Z, RADAR TRENDS HAVE THE STEADIEST RAIN ALONG AND
SOUTH/EAST OF I-95. A WEAK SURFACE LOW HOWEVER REMAINS VERY NEAR THE
AREA, KEEPING A FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL ENHANCE A LOW-
LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW KEEPING A MARINE INFLUENCE GOING. OUR AREA
REMAINS IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 250 MB JET DURING MUCH OF
TODAY, THEREFORE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL. SOME THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON COULD BE CLOSE TO OUR
FAR SOUTHERN ZONES, HOWEVER THIS LOOKS TO BE MAINLY REMOVED FROM OUR
AREA AND THEREFORE DID NOT ADD IN THUNDER ATTM.

THE PRESENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE COOL OCEAN WILL
KEEP LOWER CLOUDS IN PLACE. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS HOWEVER INDICATE
THAT DRYING ALOFT OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS AN INVERSION
IN PLACE, SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE. GIVEN A RATHER
MOIST LOW-LEVEL PROFILE IN THE SOUNDINGS, OPTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
ON THE COOLER SIDE AND WE USED A MOS/CONTINUITY BLEND FOR THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN SOME TO
OUR WEST DURING THE COURSE OF TONIGHT. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
MORE FOCUSED SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT UNTIL
TOWARD MORNING. THE 250 MB JET IS FORECAST TO MOVE RIGHT OVER OUR
AREA TONIGHT, REMOVING THE REGION FROM THE MORE FAVORABLE AREA OF
LIFT. AS A RESULT, WE KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC RANGE
AS SOME SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE IDEA OF LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN THE MARINE INFLUENCE, AND THEREFORE
SOME DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AS THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MID
LEVEL DRYING IN PLACE.

WHILE SOME FOG MAY BE AROUND IT IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE SIGNIFICANT
AS THE STRATUS MAY LIMIT THE ACTUAL DEVELOPMENT OVERALL. THEREFORE,
OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE FOG ATTM BUT THIS WILL BE REVISITED LATER. AS
FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED A MOS BLEND OVERALL. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT FALL A LOT GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND DEW POINTS GENERALLY
REMAINING UP DUE TO NEAR LOW-LEVEL SATURATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IN ANY DETAILS OF THIS FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK IS AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE.

A VERTICALLY DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
LATER THIS WEEK THEN WEAKEN EASTWARD THIS COMING WEEKEND IN RESPONSE
TO INTERACTION WITH A CLOSED LOW SHORT WAVE OVER HUDSON BAY.

CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPS: ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WED-FRI,
NEAR NORMAL SAT-MON.

CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY EVENING WITH SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AFFECTING THE
REGION.

SHOWER/RAIN GENERATION IS BLAMED IN PART ON INSTABILITY AS THE
COLD POOL EVOLVES OVERHEAD WITH THE 500MB TEMP AT PHL -14C THIS
MORNING COOLING TO -23C FRIDAY, AND SOME OF IT ATLANTIC INFLOW AS
THE 850-700MB LOW MAY HUG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH DEEP
MOISTURE JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE TRACK.

MUCH OF THE TIME FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BE RAINFREE
BUT TIMING THE PERIODIC LULLS IN RAINFALL WAS NOT CONFIDENTLY
ASSESSED THIS MORNING.

IF IT CLEARS A BIT FOR A FEW HOURS AT NIGHT, THEN FOG COULD
DEVELOP.

OVERALL, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL AND
NIGHTTIME MINS NEAR NORMAL (NARROW DIURNALS DUE TO MOISTURE)

NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT SHOULD BRIGHTEN AND WARM
UP TO NEAR NORMAL AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADS EAST. A WEAK
COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS WITH ITS PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING
BUT AT THIS TIME ANY RAIN OCCURRENCE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AS PROLONGED
AS WHAT MAY OCCUR LATER THIS WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE VISIBILITY WILL TEND TO VARY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR
MOSTLY TIED TO RAIN INTENSITY. OUR CONFIDENCE HOWEVER ON THE EXTENT
OF THE CEILING IMPROVEMENTS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON IS ON THE LOWER
SIDE. PERIODS OF RAIN THIS MORNING, WILL THEN TAPER TO A FEW
SHOWERS. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

TONIGHT...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WITH A CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW. A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS OR SOME DRIZZLE POSSIBLE, WITH LOCAL MVFR
VISIBILITY AT TIMES. NORTHEAST WINDS 3-6 KNOTS OVERALL.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VARYING BETWEEN VFR CIGS AND MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD.
CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO IFR AT TIMES IN THE RAIN SHOWERS. IN A
GENERAL A NORTHEAST WIND, WHICH MAY BECOME GUSTY 15 TO 20 KT AT
TIMES,  ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.

SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL
KEEP AN ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE. WHILE THIS MAY SOME INCREASE FOR A
TIME ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS, IT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS. SINCE THE FLOW IS
FORECAST TO BE WEAK ENOUGH, SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE 4 FEET OR
LESS. THEREFORE, THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY
BUILD AROUND 5 FEET IN THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SCA PROBABLE IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE
ORGANIZING OFF THE NJ COAST. ATLANTIC SEAS WERE CAPPED AT 6 FEET,
1-2 FT BELOW GUIDANCE, DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE WIND
FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW.

SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE WILL APPRECIATE ANY UNUSUAL FLOODING REPORT FROM MARYLANDS EASTERN
SHORE AND CENTRAL-SOUTHERN DELAWARE LAST NIGHT, AS WELL AS ANY DAMAGING
WIND OR LARGE HAIL REPORTS. YOU SAW THE 50 KT AT BRANDYWINE IN
OUR LSR.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A LONG DURATION NORTHEASTERLY FETCH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF
OUR MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE APPROACH THE NEW MOON ON
FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE (6-7 PM EDT) ON WEDNESDAY EVENING,
THURSDAY EVENING AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY EVENING (WITHIN 1 HOUR OF
THE HIGH TIDE NEAR 8PM), PENDING MODELS CONTINUING TO FOCUS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND LATER THIS WEEK. THE
FRIDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE WILL ONLY NEED A SURGE OF .7 FEET
TO RAISE THE WATER LEVEL TO MINOR THRESHOLD. THERE IS EVEN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF REACHING A MODERATE THRESHOLD FRIDAY EVENING BUT
WE CANT SAY THIS WITH CONFIDENCE SINCE ITS ALL DEPENDENT ON THE
POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW FORMING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST.

AS A SIDE NOTE: IT IS OUR UNDERSTANDING THAT EVENTUALLY WE WILL
BEGIN REFERENCING COASTAL FLOODING WITH RESPECT TO MHHW WHICH
WILL EQUATE TO INUNDATION DEPTH WITH RESPECT TO NORMALLY DRY
GROUND. THERE WILL LIKELY BE TRAINING REFERENCES DURING THE
TRANSITION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 030947
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
547 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER DELAWARE THIS MORNING WILL
RELOCATE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY. A PIECE OF THE
LOW MAY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD CAPE COD LATE WEDNESDAY WHILE THE
PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATER
THIS WEEK. THE LOW MOVES OUT TO SEA SATURDAY WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOLLOWING SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
BECOME DOMINANT HERE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS WELL TO OUR WEST TODAY. THIS RESULTS
IN THE MAINTENANCE OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A SHORT WAVE
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE TO OUR NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING, TAKING MUCH OF THE FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH IT. AS A RESULT,
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL MOSTLY TAPER OFF LATER THIS MORNING FROM WEST
TO EAST WITH SOME SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE THEREAFTER.

AS OF 0940Z, RADAR TRENDS HAVE THE STEADIEST RAIN ALONG AND
SOUTH/EAST OF I-95. A WEAK SURFACE LOW HOWEVER REMAINS VERY NEAR THE
AREA, KEEPING A FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL ENHANCE A LOW-
LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW KEEPING A MARINE INFLUENCE GOING. OUR AREA
REMAINS IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 250 MB JET DURING MUCH OF
TODAY, THEREFORE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL. SOME THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON COULD BE CLOSE TO OUR
FAR SOUTHERN ZONES, HOWEVER THIS LOOKS TO BE MAINLY REMOVED FROM OUR
AREA AND THEREFORE DID NOT ADD IN THUNDER ATTM.

THE PRESENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE COOL OCEAN WILL
KEEP LOWER CLOUDS IN PLACE. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS HOWEVER INDICATE
THAT DRYING ALOFT OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS AN INVERSION
IN PLACE, SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE. GIVEN A RATHER
MOIST LOW-LEVEL PROFILE IN THE SOUNDINGS, OPTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
ON THE COOLER SIDE AND WE USED A MOS/CONTINUITY BLEND FOR THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN SOME TO
OUR WEST DURING THE COURSE OF TONIGHT. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
MORE FOCUSED SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT UNTIL
TOWARD MORNING. THE 250 MB JET IS FORECAST TO MOVE RIGHT OVER OUR
AREA TONIGHT, REMOVING THE REGION FROM THE MORE FAVORABLE AREA OF
LIFT. AS A RESULT, WE KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC RANGE
AS SOME SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE IDEA OF LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN THE MARINE INFLUENCE, AND THEREFORE
SOME DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AS THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MID
LEVEL DRYING IN PLACE.

WHILE SOME FOG MAY BE AROUND IT IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE SIGNIFICANT
AS THE STRATUS MAY LIMIT THE ACTUAL DEVELOPMENT OVERALL. THEREFORE,
OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE FOG ATTM BUT THIS WILL BE REVISITED LATER. AS
FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED A MOS BLEND OVERALL. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT FALL A LOT GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND DEW POINTS GENERALLY
REMAINING UP DUE TO NEAR LOW-LEVEL SATURATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IN ANY DETAILS OF THIS FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK IS AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE.

A VERTICALLY DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
LATER THIS WEEK THEN WEAKEN EASTWARD THIS COMING WEEKEND IN RESPONSE
TO INTERACTION WITH A CLOSED LOW SHORT WAVE OVER HUDSON BAY.

CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPS: ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WED-FRI,
NEAR NORMAL SAT-MON.

CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY EVENING WITH SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AFFECTING THE
REGION.

SHOWER/RAIN GENERATION IS BLAMED IN PART ON INSTABILITY AS THE
COLD POOL EVOLVES OVERHEAD WITH THE 500MB TEMP AT PHL -14C THIS
MORNING COOLING TO -23C FRIDAY, AND SOME OF IT ATLANTIC INFLOW AS
THE 850-700MB LOW MAY HUG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH DEEP
MOISTURE JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE TRACK.

MUCH OF THE TIME FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BE RAINFREE
BUT TIMING THE PERIODIC LULLS IN RAINFALL WAS NOT CONFIDENTLY
ASSESSED THIS MORNING.

IF IT CLEARS A BIT FOR A FEW HOURS AT NIGHT, THEN FOG COULD
DEVELOP.

OVERALL, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL AND
NIGHTTIME MINS NEAR NORMAL (NARROW DIURNALS DUE TO MOISTURE)

NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT SHOULD BRIGHTEN AND WARM
UP TO NEAR NORMAL AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADS EAST. A WEAK
COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS WITH ITS PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING
BUT AT THIS TIME ANY RAIN OCCURRENCE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AS PROLONGED
AS WHAT MAY OCCUR LATER THIS WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE VISIBILITY WILL TEND TO VARY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR
MOSTLY TIED TO RAIN INTENSITY. OUR CONFIDENCE HOWEVER ON THE EXTENT
OF THE CEILING IMPROVEMENTS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON IS ON THE LOWER
SIDE. PERIODS OF RAIN THIS MORNING, WILL THEN TAPER TO A FEW
SHOWERS. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

TONIGHT...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WITH A CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW. A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS OR SOME DRIZZLE POSSIBLE, WITH LOCAL MVFR
VISIBILITY AT TIMES. NORTHEAST WINDS 3-6 KNOTS OVERALL.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VARYING BETWEEN VFR CIGS AND MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD.
CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO IFR AT TIMES IN THE RAIN SHOWERS. IN A
GENERAL A NORTHEAST WIND, WHICH MAY BECOME GUSTY 15 TO 20 KT AT
TIMES,  ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.

SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL
KEEP AN ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE. WHILE THIS MAY SOME INCREASE FOR A
TIME ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS, IT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS. SINCE THE FLOW IS
FORECAST TO BE WEAK ENOUGH, SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE 4 FEET OR
LESS. THEREFORE, THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY
BUILD AROUND 5 FEET IN THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SCA PROBABLE IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE
ORGANIZING OFF THE NJ COAST. ATLANTIC SEAS WERE CAPPED AT 6 FEET,
1-2 FT BELOW GUIDANCE, DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE WIND
FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW.

SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE WILL APPRECIATE ANY UNUSUAL FLOODING REPORT FROM MARYLANDS EASTERN
SHORE AND CENTRAL-SOUTHERN DELAWARE LAST NIGHT, AS WELL AS ANY DAMAGING
WIND OR LARGE HAIL REPORTS. YOU SAW THE 50 KT AT BRANDYWINE IN
OUR LSR.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A LONG DURATION NORTHEASTERLY FETCH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF
OUR MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE APPROACH THE NEW MOON ON
FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE (6-7 PM EDT) ON WEDNESDAY EVENING,
THURSDAY EVENING AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY EVENING (WITHIN 1 HOUR OF
THE HIGH TIDE NEAR 8PM), PENDING MODELS CONTINUING TO FOCUS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND LATER THIS WEEK. THE
FRIDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE WILL ONLY NEED A SURGE OF .7 FEET
TO RAISE THE WATER LEVEL TO MINOR THRESHOLD. THERE IS EVEN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF REACHING A MODERATE THRESHOLD FRIDAY EVENING BUT
WE CANT SAY THIS WITH CONFIDENCE SINCE ITS ALL DEPENDENT ON THE
POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW FORMING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST.

AS A SIDE NOTE: IT IS OUR UNDERSTANDING THAT EVENTUALLY WE WILL
BEGIN REFERENCING COASTAL FLOODING WITH RESPECT TO MHHW WHICH
WILL EQUATE TO INUNDATION DEPTH WITH RESPECT TO NORMALLY DRY
GROUND. THERE WILL LIKELY BE TRAINING REFERENCES DURING THE
TRANSITION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 030932
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
532 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER DELAWARE THIS MORNING WILL
RELOCATE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY. A PIECE OF THE
LOW MAY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD CAPE COD LATE WEDNESDAY WHILE THE
PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATER
THIS WEEK. THE LOW MOVES OUT TO SEA SATURDAY WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOLLOWING SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
BECOME DOMINANT HERE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS WELL TO OUR WEST TODAY. THIS RESULTS
IN THE MAINTENANCE OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A SHORT WAVE
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE TO OUR NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING, TAKING MUCH OF THE FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH IT. AS A RESULT,
SHOWERS, OR A PERIOD OF RAIN, WILL MOSTLY TAPER OFF BY LATER THIS
MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST. SOME HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THERE MAY BE TWO AREAS OF MORE CONCENTRATED SHOWERS EARLY
TODAY, ONE ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES AND THE OTHER NEAR THE COAST.
THE RADAR TRENDS SO FAR EARLY THIS MORNING APPEARS TO BE RESEMBLING
THIS, THEREFORE POPS WERE ADJUSTED. A WEAK SURFACE LOW HOWEVER
REMAINS VERY NEAR THE AREA, KEEPING A FRONTAL ZONE MAINLY TO OUR
SOUTH. THIS WILL ENHANCE A LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW KEEPING A
MARINE INFLUENCE GOING. OUR AREA REMAINS IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT
OF A 250 MB JET DURING MUCH OF TODAY, THEREFORE SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. SOME THUNDER
THIS AFTERNOON COULD BE CLOSE TO OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES, HOWEVER
THIS LOOKS TO BE MAINLY REMOVED FROM OUR AREA. THEREFORE DID NOT ADD
IN THUNDER ATTM.

THE PRESENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE COOL OCEAN WILL
KEEP LOWER CLOUDS IN PLACE. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS HOWEVER INDICATE
THAT DRYING ALOFT OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS AN INVERSION
IN PLACE, SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE. GIVEN A RATHER
MOIST LOW-LEVEL PROFILE IN THE SOUNDINGS, OPTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
ON THE COOLER SIDE AND WE USED A MOS/CONTINUITY BLEND FOR THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN SOME TO
OUR WEST DURING THE COURSE OF TONIGHT. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
MORE FOCUSED SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT UNTIL
TOWARD MORNING. THE 250 MB JET IS FORECAST TO MOVE RIGHT OVER OUR
AREA TONIGHT, REMOVING THE REGION FROM THE MORE FAVORABLE AREA OF
LIFT. AS A RESULT, WE KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC RANGE
AS SOME SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE IDEA OF LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN THE MARINE INFLUENCE, AND THEREFORE
SOME DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AS THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MID
LEVEL DRYING IN PLACE.

WHILE SOME FOG MAY BE AROUND IT IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE SIGNIFICANT
AS THE STRATUS MAY LIMIT THE ACTUAL DEVELOPMENT OVERALL. THEREFORE,
OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE FOG ATTM BUT THIS WILL BE REVISITED LATER. AS
FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED A MOS BLEND OVERALL. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT FALL A LOT GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND DEW POINTS GENERALLY
REMAINING UP DUE TO NEAR LOW-LEVEL SATURATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IN ANY DETAILS OF THIS FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK IS AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE.

A VERTICALLY DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
LATER THIS WEEK THEN WEAKEN EASTWARD THIS COMING WEEKEND IN RESPONSE
TO INTERACTION WITH A CLOSED LOW SHORT WAVE OVER HUDSON BAY.

CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPS: ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WED-FRI,
NEAR NORMAL SAT-MON.

CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY EVENING WITH SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AFFECTING THE
REGION.

SHOWER/RAIN GENERATION IS BLAMED IN PART ON INSTABILITY AS THE
COLD POOL EVOLVES OVERHEAD WITH THE 500MB TEMP AT PHL -14C THIS
MORNING COOLING TO -23C FRIDAY, AND SOME OF IT ATLANTIC INFLOW AS
THE 850-700MB LOW MAY HUG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH DEEP
MOISTURE JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE TRACK.

MUCH OF THE TIME FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BE RAINFREE
BUT TIMING THE PERIODIC LULLS IN RAINFALL WAS NOT CONFIDENTLY
ASSESSED THIS MORNING.

IF IT CLEARS A BIT FOR A FEW HOURS AT NIGHT, THEN FOG COULD
DEVELOP.

OVERALL, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL AND
NIGHTTIME MINS NEAR NORMAL (NARROW DIURNALS DUE TO MOISTURE)

NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT SHOULD BRIGHTEN AND WARM
UP TO NEAR NORMAL AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADS EAST. A WEAK
COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS WITH ITS PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING
BUT AT THIS TIME ANY RAIN OCCURRENCE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AS PROLONGED
AS WHAT MAY OCCUR LATER THIS WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH TODAY...VARYING CEILING HEIGHTS EARLY ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE
INTO THE IFR RANGE THIS MORNING. AN IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON TO
MVFR IS ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOWER SIDE.
SHOWERS MOST NUMEROUS THIS MORNING, THEN LESS COVERAGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

TONIGHT...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WITH A CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW. A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS OR SOME DRIZZLE POSSIBLE, WITH LOCAL MVFR
VISIBILITY AT TIMES. NORTHEAST WINDS 3-6 KNOTS OVERALL.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VARYING BETWEEN VFR CIGS AND MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD.
CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO IFR AT TIMES IN THE RAIN SHOWERS. IN A
GENERAL A NORTHEAST WIND, WHICH MAY BECOME GUSTY 15 TO 20 KT AT
TIMES,  ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.

SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL
KEEP AN ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE. WHILE THIS MAY SOME INCREASE FOR A
TIME ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS, IT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS. SINCE THE FLOW IS
FORECAST TO BE WEAK ENOUGH, SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE 4 FEET OR
LESS. THEREFORE, THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY
BUILD AROUND 5 FEET IN THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SCA PROBABLE IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE
ORGANIZING OFF THE NJ COAST. ATLANTIC SEAS WERE CAPPED AT 6 FEET,
1-2 FT BELOW GUIDANCE, DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE WIND
FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW.

SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE WILL APPRECIATE ANY UNUSUAL FLOODING REPORT FROM MARYLANDS EASTERN
SHORE AND CENTRAL-SOUTHERN DELAWARE LAST NIGHT, AS WELL AS ANY DAMAGING
WIND OR LARGE HAIL REPORTS. YOU SAW THE 50 KT AT BRANDYWINE IN
OUR LSR.


&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A LONG DURATION NORTHEASTERLY FETCH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF
OUR MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE APPROACH THE NEW MOON ON
FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE (6-7 PM EDT) ON WEDNESDAY EVENING,
THURSDAY EVENING AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY EVENING (WITHIN 1 HOUR OF
THE HIGH TIDE NEAR 8PM), PENDING MODELS CONTINUING TO FOCUS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND LATER THIS WEEK. THE
FRIDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE WILL ONLY NEED A SURGE OF .7 FEET
TO RAISE THE WATER LEVEL TO MINOR THRESHOLD. THERE IS EVEN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF REACHING A MODERATE THRESHOLD FRIDAY EVENING BUT
WE CANT SAY THIS WITH CONFIDENCE SINCE ITS ALL DEPENDENT ON THE
POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW FORMING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST.

AS A SIDE NOTE: IT IS OUR UNDERSTANDING THAT EVENTUALLY WE WILL
BEGIN REFERENCING COASTAL FLOODING WITH RESPECT TO MHHW WHICH
WILL EQUATE TO INUNDATION DEPTH WITH RESPECT TO NORMALLY DRY
GROUND. THERE WILL LIKELY BE TRAINING REFERENCES DURING THE
TRANSITION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 531
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG 531
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
HYDROLOGY...531
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...531




000
FXUS61 KPHI 030932
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
532 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER DELAWARE THIS MORNING WILL
RELOCATE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY. A PIECE OF THE
LOW MAY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD CAPE COD LATE WEDNESDAY WHILE THE
PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATER
THIS WEEK. THE LOW MOVES OUT TO SEA SATURDAY WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOLLOWING SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
BECOME DOMINANT HERE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS WELL TO OUR WEST TODAY. THIS RESULTS
IN THE MAINTENANCE OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A SHORT WAVE
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE TO OUR NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING, TAKING MUCH OF THE FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH IT. AS A RESULT,
SHOWERS, OR A PERIOD OF RAIN, WILL MOSTLY TAPER OFF BY LATER THIS
MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST. SOME HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THERE MAY BE TWO AREAS OF MORE CONCENTRATED SHOWERS EARLY
TODAY, ONE ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES AND THE OTHER NEAR THE COAST.
THE RADAR TRENDS SO FAR EARLY THIS MORNING APPEARS TO BE RESEMBLING
THIS, THEREFORE POPS WERE ADJUSTED. A WEAK SURFACE LOW HOWEVER
REMAINS VERY NEAR THE AREA, KEEPING A FRONTAL ZONE MAINLY TO OUR
SOUTH. THIS WILL ENHANCE A LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW KEEPING A
MARINE INFLUENCE GOING. OUR AREA REMAINS IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT
OF A 250 MB JET DURING MUCH OF TODAY, THEREFORE SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. SOME THUNDER
THIS AFTERNOON COULD BE CLOSE TO OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES, HOWEVER
THIS LOOKS TO BE MAINLY REMOVED FROM OUR AREA. THEREFORE DID NOT ADD
IN THUNDER ATTM.

THE PRESENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE COOL OCEAN WILL
KEEP LOWER CLOUDS IN PLACE. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS HOWEVER INDICATE
THAT DRYING ALOFT OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS AN INVERSION
IN PLACE, SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE. GIVEN A RATHER
MOIST LOW-LEVEL PROFILE IN THE SOUNDINGS, OPTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
ON THE COOLER SIDE AND WE USED A MOS/CONTINUITY BLEND FOR THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN SOME TO
OUR WEST DURING THE COURSE OF TONIGHT. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
MORE FOCUSED SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT UNTIL
TOWARD MORNING. THE 250 MB JET IS FORECAST TO MOVE RIGHT OVER OUR
AREA TONIGHT, REMOVING THE REGION FROM THE MORE FAVORABLE AREA OF
LIFT. AS A RESULT, WE KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC RANGE
AS SOME SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE IDEA OF LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN THE MARINE INFLUENCE, AND THEREFORE
SOME DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AS THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MID
LEVEL DRYING IN PLACE.

WHILE SOME FOG MAY BE AROUND IT IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE SIGNIFICANT
AS THE STRATUS MAY LIMIT THE ACTUAL DEVELOPMENT OVERALL. THEREFORE,
OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE FOG ATTM BUT THIS WILL BE REVISITED LATER. AS
FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED A MOS BLEND OVERALL. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT FALL A LOT GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND DEW POINTS GENERALLY
REMAINING UP DUE TO NEAR LOW-LEVEL SATURATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IN ANY DETAILS OF THIS FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK IS AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE.

A VERTICALLY DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
LATER THIS WEEK THEN WEAKEN EASTWARD THIS COMING WEEKEND IN RESPONSE
TO INTERACTION WITH A CLOSED LOW SHORT WAVE OVER HUDSON BAY.

CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPS: ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WED-FRI,
NEAR NORMAL SAT-MON.

CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY EVENING WITH SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AFFECTING THE
REGION.

SHOWER/RAIN GENERATION IS BLAMED IN PART ON INSTABILITY AS THE
COLD POOL EVOLVES OVERHEAD WITH THE 500MB TEMP AT PHL -14C THIS
MORNING COOLING TO -23C FRIDAY, AND SOME OF IT ATLANTIC INFLOW AS
THE 850-700MB LOW MAY HUG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH DEEP
MOISTURE JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE TRACK.

MUCH OF THE TIME FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BE RAINFREE
BUT TIMING THE PERIODIC LULLS IN RAINFALL WAS NOT CONFIDENTLY
ASSESSED THIS MORNING.

IF IT CLEARS A BIT FOR A FEW HOURS AT NIGHT, THEN FOG COULD
DEVELOP.

OVERALL, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL AND
NIGHTTIME MINS NEAR NORMAL (NARROW DIURNALS DUE TO MOISTURE)

NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT SHOULD BRIGHTEN AND WARM
UP TO NEAR NORMAL AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADS EAST. A WEAK
COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS WITH ITS PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING
BUT AT THIS TIME ANY RAIN OCCURRENCE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AS PROLONGED
AS WHAT MAY OCCUR LATER THIS WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH TODAY...VARYING CEILING HEIGHTS EARLY ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE
INTO THE IFR RANGE THIS MORNING. AN IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON TO
MVFR IS ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOWER SIDE.
SHOWERS MOST NUMEROUS THIS MORNING, THEN LESS COVERAGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

TONIGHT...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WITH A CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW. A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS OR SOME DRIZZLE POSSIBLE, WITH LOCAL MVFR
VISIBILITY AT TIMES. NORTHEAST WINDS 3-6 KNOTS OVERALL.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VARYING BETWEEN VFR CIGS AND MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD.
CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO IFR AT TIMES IN THE RAIN SHOWERS. IN A
GENERAL A NORTHEAST WIND, WHICH MAY BECOME GUSTY 15 TO 20 KT AT
TIMES,  ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.

SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL
KEEP AN ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE. WHILE THIS MAY SOME INCREASE FOR A
TIME ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS, IT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS. SINCE THE FLOW IS
FORECAST TO BE WEAK ENOUGH, SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE 4 FEET OR
LESS. THEREFORE, THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY
BUILD AROUND 5 FEET IN THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SCA PROBABLE IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE
ORGANIZING OFF THE NJ COAST. ATLANTIC SEAS WERE CAPPED AT 6 FEET,
1-2 FT BELOW GUIDANCE, DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE WIND
FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW.

SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE WILL APPRECIATE ANY UNUSUAL FLOODING REPORT FROM MARYLANDS EASTERN
SHORE AND CENTRAL-SOUTHERN DELAWARE LAST NIGHT, AS WELL AS ANY DAMAGING
WIND OR LARGE HAIL REPORTS. YOU SAW THE 50 KT AT BRANDYWINE IN
OUR LSR.


&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A LONG DURATION NORTHEASTERLY FETCH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF
OUR MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE APPROACH THE NEW MOON ON
FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE (6-7 PM EDT) ON WEDNESDAY EVENING,
THURSDAY EVENING AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY EVENING (WITHIN 1 HOUR OF
THE HIGH TIDE NEAR 8PM), PENDING MODELS CONTINUING TO FOCUS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND LATER THIS WEEK. THE
FRIDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE WILL ONLY NEED A SURGE OF .7 FEET
TO RAISE THE WATER LEVEL TO MINOR THRESHOLD. THERE IS EVEN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF REACHING A MODERATE THRESHOLD FRIDAY EVENING BUT
WE CANT SAY THIS WITH CONFIDENCE SINCE ITS ALL DEPENDENT ON THE
POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW FORMING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST.

AS A SIDE NOTE: IT IS OUR UNDERSTANDING THAT EVENTUALLY WE WILL
BEGIN REFERENCING COASTAL FLOODING WITH RESPECT TO MHHW WHICH
WILL EQUATE TO INUNDATION DEPTH WITH RESPECT TO NORMALLY DRY
GROUND. THERE WILL LIKELY BE TRAINING REFERENCES DURING THE
TRANSITION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 531
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG 531
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
HYDROLOGY...531
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...531




000
FXUS61 KPHI 030814
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
414 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER DELAWARE THIS MORNING WILL
RELOCATE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY. A PIECE OF THE
LOW MAY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD CAPE COD LATE WEDNESDAY WHILE THE
PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATER
THIS WEEK. THE LOW MOVES OUT TO SEA SATURDAY WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOLLOWING SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
BECOME DOMINANT HERE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS WELL TO OUR WEST TODAY. THIS RESULTS
IN THE MAINTENANCE OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A SHORT WAVE
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE TO OUR NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING, TAKING MUCH OF THE FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH IT. AS A RESULT,
SHOWERS, OR A PERIOD OF RAIN, WILL MOSTLY TAPER OFF BY LATER THIS
MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST. SOME HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THERE MAY BE TWO AREAS OF MORE CONCENTRATED SHOWERS EARLY
TODAY, ONE ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES AND THE OTHER NEAR THE COAST.
THE RADAR TRENDS SO FAR EARLY THIS MORNING APPEARS TO BE RESEMBLING
THIS, THEREFORE POPS WERE ADJUSTED. A WEAK SURFACE LOW HOWEVER
REMAINS VERY NEAR THE AREA, KEEPING A FRONTAL ZONE MAINLY TO OUR
SOUTH. THIS WILL ENHANCE A LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW KEEPING A
MARINE INFLUENCE GOING. OUR AREA REMAINS IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT
OF A 250 MB JET DURING MUCH OF TODAY, THEREFORE SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. SOME THUNDER
THIS AFTERNOON COULD BE CLOSE TO OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES, HOWEVER
THIS LOOKS TO BE MAINLY REMOVED FROM OUR AREA. THEREFORE DID NOT ADD
IN THUNDER ATTM.

THE PRESENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE COOL OCEAN WILL
KEEP LOWER CLOUDS IN PLACE. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS HOWEVER INDICATE
THAT DRYING ALOFT OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS AN INVERSION
IN PLACE, SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE. GIVEN A RATHER
MOIST LOW-LEVEL PROFILE IN THE SOUNDINGS, OPTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
ON THE COOLER SIDE AND WE USED A MOS/CONTINUITY BLEND FOR THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN SOME TO
OUR WEST DURING THE COURSE OF TONIGHT. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
MORE FOCUSED SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT UNTIL
TOWARD MORNING. THE 250 MB JET IS FORECAST TO MOVE RIGHT OVER OUR
AREA TONIGHT, REMOVING THE REGION FROM THE MORE FAVORABLE AREA OF
LIFT. AS A RESULT, WE KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC RANGE
AS SOME SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE IDEA OF LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN THE MARINE INFLUENCE, AND THEREFORE
SOME DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AS THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MID
LEVEL DRYING IN PLACE.

WHILE SOME FOG MAY BE AROUND IT IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE SIGNIFICANT
AS THE STRATUS MAY LIMIT THE ACTUAL DEVELOPMENT OVERALL. THEREFORE,
OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE FOG ATTM BUT THIS WILL BE REVISITED LATER. AS
FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED A MOS BLEND OVERALL. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT FALL A LOT GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND DEW POINTS GENERALLY
REMAINING UP DUE TO NEAR LOW-LEVEL SATURATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IN ANY DETAILS OF THIS FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK IS AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE.

A VERTICALLY DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
LATER THIS WEEK THEN WEAKEN EASTWARD NEXT WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO
INTERACTION WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON BAY.

CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPS: ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WED-FRI,
NEAR NORMAL SAT-MON.

CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY EVENING WITH SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AFFECTING THE
REGION. MUCH OF THE TIME MAY BE RAINFREE. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL AND NIGHTTIME MINS NEAR NORMAL.

NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT SHOULD BRIGHTEN AND WARM
UP TO NEAR NORMAL AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADS EAST. A WEAK
COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS WITH ITS PASSAGE SUNDAY
MORNING BUT AT THIS TIME ANY RAIN DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AS PROLONGED
AS WHAT MAY OCCUR LATER THIS WORK WEEK.



&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH TODAY...VARYING CEILING HEIGHTS EARLY ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE
INTO THE IFR RANGE THIS MORNING. AN IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON TO
MVFR IS ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOWER SIDE.
SHOWERS MOST NUMEROUS THIS MORNING, THEN LESS COVERAGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

TONIGHT...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WITH A CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW. A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS OR SOME DRIZZLE POSSIBLE, WITH LOCAL MVFR
VISIBILITY AT TIMES. NORTHEAST WINDS 3-6 KNOTS OVERALL.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VARYING BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS MAY DROP
TO IFR AT TIMES IN THE RAIN SHOWERS.

SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL
KEEP AN ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE. WHILE THIS MAY SOME INCREASE FOR A
TIME ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS, IT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS. SINCE THE FLOW IS
FORECAST TO BE WEAK ENOUGH, SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE 4 FEET OR
LESS. THEREFORE, THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY
BUILD AROUND 5 FEET IN THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SCA POSSIBLE IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE
ORGANIZING OFF THE NJ COAST. ATLANTIC SEAS WERE CAPPED AT 6 FEET,
1-2 FT BELOW GUIDANCE, DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE WIND
FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW.

SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A LONG DURATION NORTHEASTERLY FETCH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF
OUR MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE APPROACH THE NEW MOON ON
FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE (6-7 PM EDT) ON WEDNESDAY EVENING,
THURSDAY EVENING AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY EVENING, PENDING MODELS
CONTINUING TO FOCUS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
LATER THIS WEEK. THE FRIDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE WILL ONLY
NEED A SURGE OF .7 FEET TO RAISE THE WATER LEVEL TO MINOR
THRESHOLD. THERE IS EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF REACHING A MODERATE
THRESHOLD FRIDAY EVENING BUT WE CANT SAY THIS WITH CONFIDENCE
SINCE ITS ALL DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW
FORMING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 413
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...AMC/GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG 413
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 413
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 413
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...413




000
FXUS61 KLWX 030801
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
401 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN WEDNESDAY. A LARGE AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

AS OF 3AM...LOW PRESSURE OVER NEBRASKA WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST AND A SFC TROUGH OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. A SFC LOW
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND DRIFT NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH/LOW
HAS MAINTAINED A SWATH OF MODERATE RAIN OVER ERN VA TO SRN DE WITH
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE BALT-WASH METRO. LOW CLOUDS WILL AGAIN
BE A FIXTURE OF THE MORNING HOURS.

ALSO AT THIS TIME...A LOW IS OVER NRN ONTARIO. THIS LOW WILL DESCEND
ACROSS THE ERN CONUS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINTAINING A WET AND
CLOUDY PATTERN FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC.

TODAY...SFC LOW SHIFTS EAST FROM THE AREA. NELY FLOW BEHIND THE LOW
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE PIEDMONT TO THE BLUE RIDGE. TOPOGRAPHIC LIFT AIDS THIS
DEVELOPMENT. MOST GUIDANCE IS INSISTENT ON THE BALTIMORE METRO AREA
AND AREAS NE BEING DRY IN THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES SW
INTO THE AREA FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. MAX TEMPS MID 60S NE TO
MID 70S SW PER SUPERBLEND/GMOS/MAV/MET BLEND.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

LOWEST POPS OF THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGES INTO THE AREA AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING CLOSED LOW.
CLOUDY WITH LOWS AROUND 50F WEST TO LOW TO MID 50S EAST.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS SE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN
TO THE CAROLINA COAST. PLENTY OF LIFT IN THIS TIME FOR SHOWERS AND
JUST ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT
INTERMITTENT...MAINLY LIGHT RAIN. THIS SHOULD HELP RECOUP THE
PRECIP DEFICIT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

WHILE THE ROCKY MTNS WL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPR LVL
RDG THU/FRI THE ERN U.S. WL BE XPRNCG A LARGE TROF. THIS WL BE
MAKE MID ATLC WX CLDY COOL AND SHOWERY. HIGHS WL BE IN 60-65
RNG...LOWS A50.

TROF WL LIFT TO THE NE SAT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A WEAK INDUCED RDG
TO RETURN TO THE AREA...BRINGING SOME SUNSHINE AND A RETURN TO
HIGHS IN THE 70S. A WEAK CD FNT IS XPCTD TO PASS THRU THE MID ATLC
SUNDAY...PERHAPS BRINGING A FEW RW TO THE AREA. HIGH PRES OVR THE
RGN NEXT MON. HIGHS RMNG IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

IFR CONDS THROUGH THE MORNING AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS AND SHIFTS EAST.
NELY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
SW OF THE DC METROS IN MAINLY MVFR CONDS.

RAIN TAPERS OFF IN BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT...THOUGH LOW CLOUDS
PERSIST...POSSIBLE IFR CONDS AGAIN.

LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES WEDNESDAY AND CROSSEST THURSDAY WITH
INTERMITTENT SHOWERS BOTH DAYS.

SUB-VFR CONDS LKLY THU/FRI IN LOWERED CIGS...THEN A RETURN TO VFR
CONDS SAT.

&&

.MARINE...

NLY WIND TURNS NELY THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM
THE AREA. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO PROBS FORESEEN ON THE WATERS THU/FRI XCPT OVC SKIES/RW.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...BAJ/WOODY!




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030738
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
338 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL MAINTAIN DAILY RAIN CHANCES
THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
IN GENERAL...AN ISOLD TO SCT SHOWER FORECAST WL SUFFICE ON THE
FLANK OF THE EWD SHIFTING UPR TROUGH...CENTERED OVR THE MIDWEST
THIS MRNG.

CLOUD COVER AND WEAK COLD ADVCTN UNDER THE ENCROACHING TROUGH WL
LIMIT TEMPERATURE RECOVERY TODAY. EXPECT READINGS ABOUT 5 DEGREES
UNDR THE AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO CARVE A DEEP TROUGH OVR THE ERN
CONUS BY WEDNESDAY. INCRSG POPS...CUMULATING IN LIKELY
NUMBERS...WERE MAINTAINED FOR THE ADVN AND PASSAGE OF THAT
SYSTEM...WITH SHOWER CHANCES AND COLD CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY.
EXPECT A TEMPERATURE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BY THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE ERN CONUS TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO FILL DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK...BUT MODEL WORLD IS NOT CONSISTENT IN
THE SCENARIO...EG...GFS NOW PROGGING CONTD TROUGHING FOR SUNDAY...WHICH
IS OUT OF PHASE WITH PREVIOUS SOLNS. NEVERTHELESS...DECLINING
PRECIP PROBS FROM THE WEST AND GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURE
AFTER A COLD START SHOULD DEFINE THE LONG TERM PERIOD...FORECAST
FOR WHICH WAS CONSTRUCTED VIA PERSISTENCE AND COLLABORATIVE TWEAKS
GIVEN THE OVRALL LACK OF CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR/PATCHY MVFR STRATOCU...AND A FEW SCT SHOWERS S-SE OF
PIT...SHOULD PERSIST THRU ERLY THIS MRNG WITH AN EXITING
SHORTWAVE. STRATOCU CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE THRU TUE EVE WITH AN
APPROACHING UPR TROF...THOUGH CIGS HEIGHTS FOR ALL PORTS SHOULD
RETURN TO VFR AS MIXING INCREASES.

.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WED THRU FRI WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT UPR TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/07




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030738
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
338 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH TO THE COAST INTO TONIGHT.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS AN
UPPER AIR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CORRIDOR OF WIDESPREAD RA/ISOLD TSTMS EXTENDS FM THE LWR MD ERN
SHORE SW TO SCNTRL VA. THE ENTIRE AREA HAS BEEN SLO TO PUSH E THE
PAST FEW HRS. A CDFNT WAS FOUND JUST NW OF THE FA INVOF THE MTNS.
MDLS CONT TO PUSH NUMEROUS (MNLY) SHRAS TO THE E THROUGH THIS
MRNG AS CDFNT SETTLES SE INTO THE FA. THAT CDFNT ARRIVES IN SE
VA/NE NC BY LT THIS AFTN. BULK OF THE RA XPCD TO SHIFT E AND OFF
THE CST BY MID AFTN. AFT THAT...ADDITIONAL SHRAS/SCT TSTMS LIKELY
TO DEVELOP OVR THE FA. BEST (MARGINAL) INSTABILITY LATER TDA WILL
BE ACRS SRN VA/NE NC...AND THAT AREA HAS BEEN PLACED IN A SLGT
RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS BY SPC. PRIMARY THREAT DAMAGING
WNDS/HAIL...AND WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN HWO. RA EARLY TDA NOT
LIKELY TO BE TOO HEAVY. HIGHER PROB FOR LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS FM
ANY SHRA/TSTM THIS AFTN/EVE. HI TEMPS FM THE U60S-L70S N TO THE
U70S-ARND 80F S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING CONVECTION...MNLY SRN/SE VA-NE NC THIS EVE...THEN VRB-
MOSTLY CLOUDY TNGT W/ LWRG POPS. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE
50S TO NR 60F.

UNSETTLED WX WILL CONT ACRS THE FA WED THRU THU...DUE TO UPR AIR
LO PRES DROPPING FM THE GRT LKS REGION DOWN AND ACRS THE MID ATLC
REGION. WILL CARRY 30-50% POPS...ESP WED AFTN...W/ HIGHER POPS
(40-60%) THU AS THE UPR LVL LO TRACKS INTO NC. OTRW...CONTD VRB
CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS WED-THU. HI TEMPS ON WED WILL RANGE FM
THE M60S N TO L70S S. LOWS WED NGT MNLY IN THE L-M50S. HIGHS ON
THU WILL RANGE FM THE L-M60S N TO ARND 70F FAR SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST FRIDAY WITH A ~40% CHC OF SHOWERS. FORECAST
HIGHS RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE SATURDAY AS THE
LOW SLIDES FARTHER OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES MODERATE INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY SKY...WITH A 20% POP FOR THE ERN
HALF OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH THE 02/12Z GFS FASTER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
COMPARED TO THE 02/12Z ECMWF. NEVERTHELESS...MOISTURE APPEARS
LIMITED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AT THIS TIME. WARMER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE
50S. A MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO GENERALLY DRY
AND MILD CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN AND ISOLD TSTMS WILL IMPACT KRIC AND KSBY FOR MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...CONTINUING THRU MIDDAY TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL REACH THE SE TAF SITES BETWEEN 07Z-11Z...AND THEN CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. PCPN WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURING AS WELL.
MVFR/IFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE PCPN THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE
IMPROVING.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL WX SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. REDUCED
FLIGHT CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. S-SW WINDS 10-15 KT WILL BECOME N-NE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
THIS WIND SHIFT WILL NOT TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERNMOST WATERS
UNTIL LATE THIS EVE/TONIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH
AS THERE IS A LACK OF CAA BEHIND THE FRONT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MAINTAINING NE
FLOW AOB 15 KT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. EASTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NW AS THE LOW
DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA. LOW
PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH NW FLOW
CONTINUING. SEAS AVERAGE 3-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 2-3 FT WAVES
IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030738
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
338 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH TO THE COAST INTO TONIGHT.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS AN
UPPER AIR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CORRIDOR OF WIDESPREAD RA/ISOLD TSTMS EXTENDS FM THE LWR MD ERN
SHORE SW TO SCNTRL VA. THE ENTIRE AREA HAS BEEN SLO TO PUSH E THE
PAST FEW HRS. A CDFNT WAS FOUND JUST NW OF THE FA INVOF THE MTNS.
MDLS CONT TO PUSH NUMEROUS (MNLY) SHRAS TO THE E THROUGH THIS
MRNG AS CDFNT SETTLES SE INTO THE FA. THAT CDFNT ARRIVES IN SE
VA/NE NC BY LT THIS AFTN. BULK OF THE RA XPCD TO SHIFT E AND OFF
THE CST BY MID AFTN. AFT THAT...ADDITIONAL SHRAS/SCT TSTMS LIKELY
TO DEVELOP OVR THE FA. BEST (MARGINAL) INSTABILITY LATER TDA WILL
BE ACRS SRN VA/NE NC...AND THAT AREA HAS BEEN PLACED IN A SLGT
RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS BY SPC. PRIMARY THREAT DAMAGING
WNDS/HAIL...AND WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN HWO. RA EARLY TDA NOT
LIKELY TO BE TOO HEAVY. HIGHER PROB FOR LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS FM
ANY SHRA/TSTM THIS AFTN/EVE. HI TEMPS FM THE U60S-L70S N TO THE
U70S-ARND 80F S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING CONVECTION...MNLY SRN/SE VA-NE NC THIS EVE...THEN VRB-
MOSTLY CLOUDY TNGT W/ LWRG POPS. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE
50S TO NR 60F.

UNSETTLED WX WILL CONT ACRS THE FA WED THRU THU...DUE TO UPR AIR
LO PRES DROPPING FM THE GRT LKS REGION DOWN AND ACRS THE MID ATLC
REGION. WILL CARRY 30-50% POPS...ESP WED AFTN...W/ HIGHER POPS
(40-60%) THU AS THE UPR LVL LO TRACKS INTO NC. OTRW...CONTD VRB
CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS WED-THU. HI TEMPS ON WED WILL RANGE FM
THE M60S N TO L70S S. LOWS WED NGT MNLY IN THE L-M50S. HIGHS ON
THU WILL RANGE FM THE L-M60S N TO ARND 70F FAR SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST FRIDAY WITH A ~40% CHC OF SHOWERS. FORECAST
HIGHS RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE SATURDAY AS THE
LOW SLIDES FARTHER OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES MODERATE INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY SKY...WITH A 20% POP FOR THE ERN
HALF OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH THE 02/12Z GFS FASTER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
COMPARED TO THE 02/12Z ECMWF. NEVERTHELESS...MOISTURE APPEARS
LIMITED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AT THIS TIME. WARMER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE
50S. A MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO GENERALLY DRY
AND MILD CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN AND ISOLD TSTMS WILL IMPACT KRIC AND KSBY FOR MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...CONTINUING THRU MIDDAY TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL REACH THE SE TAF SITES BETWEEN 07Z-11Z...AND THEN CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. PCPN WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURING AS WELL.
MVFR/IFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE PCPN THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE
IMPROVING.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL WX SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. REDUCED
FLIGHT CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. S-SW WINDS 10-15 KT WILL BECOME N-NE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
THIS WIND SHIFT WILL NOT TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERNMOST WATERS
UNTIL LATE THIS EVE/TONIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH
AS THERE IS A LACK OF CAA BEHIND THE FRONT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MAINTAINING NE
FLOW AOB 15 KT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. EASTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NW AS THE LOW
DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA. LOW
PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH NW FLOW
CONTINUING. SEAS AVERAGE 3-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 2-3 FT WAVES
IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM




000
FXUS61 KPHI 030657
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
257 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT OUT TO SEA ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY COMBINING WITH
ANOTHER LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
COMPLEX LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO MEANDER OFF OUR COAST ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD AND WEAKENING ON SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS WELL TO OUR WEST TODAY. THIS RESULTS
IN THE MAINTENANCE OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A SHORT WAVE
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE TO OUR NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING, TAKING MUCH OF THE FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH IT. AS A RESULT,
SHOWERS, OR A PERIOD OF RAIN, WILL MOSTLY TAPER OFF BY LATER THIS
MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST. SOME HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THERE MAY BE TWO AREAS OF MORE CONCENTRATED SHOWERS EARLY
TODAY, ONE ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES AND THE OTHER NEAR THE COAST.
THE RADAR TRENDS SO FAR EARLY THIS MORNING APPEARS TO BE RESEMBLING
THIS, THEREFORE POPS WERE ADJUSTED. A WEAK SURFACE LOW HOWEVER
REMAINS VERY NEAR THE AREA, KEEPING A FRONTAL ZONE MAINLY TO OUR
SOUTH. THIS WILL ENHANCE A LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW KEEPING A
MARINE INFLUENCE GOING. OUR AREA REMAINS IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT
OF A 250 MB JET DURING MUCH OF TODAY, THEREFORE SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. SOME THUNDER
THIS AFTERNOON COULD BE CLOSE TO OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES, HOWEVER
THIS LOOKS TO BE MAINLY REMOVED FROM OUR AREA. THEREFORE DID NOT ADD
IN THUNDER ATTM.

THE PRESENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE COOL OCEAN WILL
KEEP LOWER CLOUDS IN PLACE. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS HOWEVER INDICATE
THAT DRYING ALOFT OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS AN INVERSION
IN PLACE, SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE. GIVEN A RATHER
MOIST LOW-LEVEL PROFILE IN THE SOUNDINGS, OPTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
ON THE COOLER SIDE AND WE USED A MOS/CONTINUITY BLEND FOR THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN SOME TO
OUR WEST DURING THE COURSE OF TONIGHT. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
MORE FOCUSED SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT UNTIL
TOWARD MORNING. THE 250 MB JET IS FORECAST TO MOVE RIGHT OVER OUR
AREA TONIGHT, REMOVING THE REGION FROM THE MORE FAVORABLE AREA OF
LIFT. AS A RESULT, WE KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC RANGE
AS SOME SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE IDEA OF LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN THE MARINE INFLUENCE, AND THEREFORE
SOME DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AS THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MID
LEVEL DRYING IN PLACE.

WHILE SOME FOG MAY BE AROUND IT IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE SIGNIFICANT
AS THE STRATUS MAY LIMIT THE ACTUAL DEVELOPMENT OVERALL. THEREFORE,
OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE FOG ATTM BUT THIS WILL BE REVISITED LATER. AS
FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED A MOS BLEND OVERALL. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT FALL A LOT GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND DEW POINTS GENERALLY
REMAINING UP DUE TO NEAR LOW-LEVEL SATURATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS A MID LEVEL LOW SINKS SOUTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY, A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE NORTHEASTWARD IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AND PASS OVER OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE MID LEVEL LOW
IS ANTICIPATED TO EVENTUALLY REACH NORTH CAROLINA LATE ON THURSDAY
BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AND MEANDERING OFF OUR COAST ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN OPEN
WAVE ON SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING TO THE NORTH AND
EAST AND AWAY FROM OUR REGION.

THE FORECAST WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRING CLOUDS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE,
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A
BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS.
AS THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM AND ITS SURFACE REFLECTION BEGIN TO MOVE
AWAY FROM OUR REGION, PARTIAL CLEARING IS POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

A ROBUST SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND ANOTHER MID LEVEL LOW
OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC SHOULD REACH OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OR SUNDAY EVENING. IT IS FORECAST TO BE PRECEDED BY A
SURFACE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. WE WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SHOULD BUILD TOWARD
OUR REGION ON MONDAY. IT LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH TODAY...VARYING CEILING HEIGHTS EARLY ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE
INTO THE IFR RANGE THIS MORNING. AN IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON TO
MVFR IS ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOWER SIDE.
SHOWERS MOST NUMEROUS THIS MORNING, THEN LESS COVERAGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

TONIGHT...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WITH A CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW. A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS OR SOME DRIZZLE POSSIBLE, WITH LOCAL MVFR
VISIBILITY AT TIMES. NORTHEAST WINDS 3-6 KNOTS OVERALL.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VARYING BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS MAY DROP
TO IFR AT TIMES IN THE RAIN SHOWERS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL
KEEP AN ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE. WHILE THIS MAY SOME INCREASE FOR A
TIME ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS, IT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS. SINCE THE FLOW IS
FORECAST TO BE WEAK ENOUGH, SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE 4 FEET OR
LESS. THEREFORE, THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY
BUILD AROUND 5 FEET IN THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A LONG NORTHEASTERLY FETCH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF OUR COAST
DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS WE APPROACH THE NEW MOON ON FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, THERE
COULD BE SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE
ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...AMC/GORSE
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO




000
FXUS61 KPHI 030657
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
257 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT OUT TO SEA ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY COMBINING WITH
ANOTHER LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
COMPLEX LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO MEANDER OFF OUR COAST ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD AND WEAKENING ON SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS WELL TO OUR WEST TODAY. THIS RESULTS
IN THE MAINTENANCE OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A SHORT WAVE
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE TO OUR NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING, TAKING MUCH OF THE FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH IT. AS A RESULT,
SHOWERS, OR A PERIOD OF RAIN, WILL MOSTLY TAPER OFF BY LATER THIS
MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST. SOME HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THERE MAY BE TWO AREAS OF MORE CONCENTRATED SHOWERS EARLY
TODAY, ONE ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES AND THE OTHER NEAR THE COAST.
THE RADAR TRENDS SO FAR EARLY THIS MORNING APPEARS TO BE RESEMBLING
THIS, THEREFORE POPS WERE ADJUSTED. A WEAK SURFACE LOW HOWEVER
REMAINS VERY NEAR THE AREA, KEEPING A FRONTAL ZONE MAINLY TO OUR
SOUTH. THIS WILL ENHANCE A LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW KEEPING A
MARINE INFLUENCE GOING. OUR AREA REMAINS IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT
OF A 250 MB JET DURING MUCH OF TODAY, THEREFORE SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. SOME THUNDER
THIS AFTERNOON COULD BE CLOSE TO OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES, HOWEVER
THIS LOOKS TO BE MAINLY REMOVED FROM OUR AREA. THEREFORE DID NOT ADD
IN THUNDER ATTM.

THE PRESENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE COOL OCEAN WILL
KEEP LOWER CLOUDS IN PLACE. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS HOWEVER INDICATE
THAT DRYING ALOFT OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS AN INVERSION
IN PLACE, SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE. GIVEN A RATHER
MOIST LOW-LEVEL PROFILE IN THE SOUNDINGS, OPTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
ON THE COOLER SIDE AND WE USED A MOS/CONTINUITY BLEND FOR THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN SOME TO
OUR WEST DURING THE COURSE OF TONIGHT. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
MORE FOCUSED SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT UNTIL
TOWARD MORNING. THE 250 MB JET IS FORECAST TO MOVE RIGHT OVER OUR
AREA TONIGHT, REMOVING THE REGION FROM THE MORE FAVORABLE AREA OF
LIFT. AS A RESULT, WE KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC RANGE
AS SOME SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE IDEA OF LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN THE MARINE INFLUENCE, AND THEREFORE
SOME DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AS THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MID
LEVEL DRYING IN PLACE.

WHILE SOME FOG MAY BE AROUND IT IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE SIGNIFICANT
AS THE STRATUS MAY LIMIT THE ACTUAL DEVELOPMENT OVERALL. THEREFORE,
OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE FOG ATTM BUT THIS WILL BE REVISITED LATER. AS
FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED A MOS BLEND OVERALL. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT FALL A LOT GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND DEW POINTS GENERALLY
REMAINING UP DUE TO NEAR LOW-LEVEL SATURATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS A MID LEVEL LOW SINKS SOUTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY, A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE NORTHEASTWARD IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AND PASS OVER OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE MID LEVEL LOW
IS ANTICIPATED TO EVENTUALLY REACH NORTH CAROLINA LATE ON THURSDAY
BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AND MEANDERING OFF OUR COAST ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN OPEN
WAVE ON SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING TO THE NORTH AND
EAST AND AWAY FROM OUR REGION.

THE FORECAST WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRING CLOUDS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE,
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A
BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS.
AS THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM AND ITS SURFACE REFLECTION BEGIN TO MOVE
AWAY FROM OUR REGION, PARTIAL CLEARING IS POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

A ROBUST SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND ANOTHER MID LEVEL LOW
OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC SHOULD REACH OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OR SUNDAY EVENING. IT IS FORECAST TO BE PRECEDED BY A
SURFACE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. WE WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SHOULD BUILD TOWARD
OUR REGION ON MONDAY. IT LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH TODAY...VARYING CEILING HEIGHTS EARLY ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE
INTO THE IFR RANGE THIS MORNING. AN IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON TO
MVFR IS ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOWER SIDE.
SHOWERS MOST NUMEROUS THIS MORNING, THEN LESS COVERAGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

TONIGHT...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WITH A CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW. A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS OR SOME DRIZZLE POSSIBLE, WITH LOCAL MVFR
VISIBILITY AT TIMES. NORTHEAST WINDS 3-6 KNOTS OVERALL.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VARYING BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS MAY DROP
TO IFR AT TIMES IN THE RAIN SHOWERS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL
KEEP AN ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE. WHILE THIS MAY SOME INCREASE FOR A
TIME ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS, IT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS. SINCE THE FLOW IS
FORECAST TO BE WEAK ENOUGH, SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE 4 FEET OR
LESS. THEREFORE, THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY
BUILD AROUND 5 FEET IN THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A LONG NORTHEASTERLY FETCH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF OUR COAST
DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS WE APPROACH THE NEW MOON ON FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, THERE
COULD BE SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE
ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...AMC/GORSE
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030547
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
147 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AND JUST OFF THE
COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...AS AN UPPER AIR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NRN NECK TO THE ERN SHORE...WITH ANOTHER LINE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COMING INTO THE PIEDMONT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT IS STILL BACK OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS WITH A GUST FRONT PUSHING OUT IN ADVANCE. RAP
MESOANALYSIS STILL INDICATING SOME INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO WORK
WITH AS THE LINE MOVES INTO THE PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL
TREND OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE HAS BEEN DOWNWARD WITH THE MAIN
THREAT TRANSITIONING TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS THRU THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE FRONT REACHES THE
PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS LINGERING OVER CENTRAL VA TO
THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO UPPER 60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH ESE AND JUST OFF THE CST TUE THRU TUE
NGT...WITH CAT OR LIKELY POPS TUE MORNG...GRADUALLY DECREASING FM
NW TO SE. ONLY A MARGINAL THREAT FOR ANY SVR TSTMS ON TUE...AND
MAINLY OVR SE VA AND NE NC. OTHERWISE...COULD HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS IN THESE AREAS. HI TEMPS ON TUE WILL RANGE FM THE UPR
60S TO THE UPR 70S. LOWS TUE NGT WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S TO NEAR
60.

UNSETTLED WX WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE AREA WED THRU THU...DUE TO
UPR AIR LO PRES DROPPING FM THE GRT LKS REGION DOWN AND ACRS THE
MID ATLC REGION. WILL CARRY 30-50% POPS...ESPLY WED AFTN THRU
THU...ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. HI TEMPS ON
WED WILL RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. LOWS WED NGT MAINLY IN
THE LWR TO MID 50S. HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST FRIDAY WITH A ~40% CHC OF SHOWERS. FORECAST
HIGHS RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE SATURDAY AS THE
LOW SLIDES FARTHER OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES MODERATE INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY SKY...WITH A 20% POP FOR THE ERN
HALF OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH THE 02/12Z GFS FASTER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
COMPARED TO THE 02/12Z ECMWF. NEVERTHELESS...MOISTURE APPEARS
LIMITED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AT THIS TIME. WARMER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE
50S. A MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO GENERALLY DRY
AND MILD CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN AND ISOLD TSTMS WILL IMPACT KRIC AND KSBY FOR MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...CONTINUING THRU MIDDAY TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL REACH THE SE TAF SITES BETWEEN 07Z-11Z...AND THEN CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. PCPN WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURING AS WELL.
MVFR/IFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE PCPN THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE
IMPROVING.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL WX SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. REDUCED
FLIGHT CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DROP SSW OVERNIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SW FLOW OF 10-15KT WILL
CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SEAS OF 3-4FT WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH ~2FT WAVES IN THE BAY. THE COLD FRONT
GRADUALLY DROPS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...WITH
THE WIND BECOMING NNE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THOUGH AS THERE IS A LACK OF CAA BEHIND THE FRONT. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MAINTAINING NE FLOW AOB 15KT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. EASTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
NW AS THE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SUB-SCA. LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH NW FLOW CONTINUING. SEAS AVERAGE 3-4FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH 2-3FT WAVES IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...AJZ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030547
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
147 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AND JUST OFF THE
COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...AS AN UPPER AIR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NRN NECK TO THE ERN SHORE...WITH ANOTHER LINE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COMING INTO THE PIEDMONT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT IS STILL BACK OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS WITH A GUST FRONT PUSHING OUT IN ADVANCE. RAP
MESOANALYSIS STILL INDICATING SOME INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO WORK
WITH AS THE LINE MOVES INTO THE PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL
TREND OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE HAS BEEN DOWNWARD WITH THE MAIN
THREAT TRANSITIONING TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS THRU THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE FRONT REACHES THE
PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS LINGERING OVER CENTRAL VA TO
THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO UPPER 60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH ESE AND JUST OFF THE CST TUE THRU TUE
NGT...WITH CAT OR LIKELY POPS TUE MORNG...GRADUALLY DECREASING FM
NW TO SE. ONLY A MARGINAL THREAT FOR ANY SVR TSTMS ON TUE...AND
MAINLY OVR SE VA AND NE NC. OTHERWISE...COULD HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS IN THESE AREAS. HI TEMPS ON TUE WILL RANGE FM THE UPR
60S TO THE UPR 70S. LOWS TUE NGT WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S TO NEAR
60.

UNSETTLED WX WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE AREA WED THRU THU...DUE TO
UPR AIR LO PRES DROPPING FM THE GRT LKS REGION DOWN AND ACRS THE
MID ATLC REGION. WILL CARRY 30-50% POPS...ESPLY WED AFTN THRU
THU...ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. HI TEMPS ON
WED WILL RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. LOWS WED NGT MAINLY IN
THE LWR TO MID 50S. HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST FRIDAY WITH A ~40% CHC OF SHOWERS. FORECAST
HIGHS RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE SATURDAY AS THE
LOW SLIDES FARTHER OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES MODERATE INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY SKY...WITH A 20% POP FOR THE ERN
HALF OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH THE 02/12Z GFS FASTER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
COMPARED TO THE 02/12Z ECMWF. NEVERTHELESS...MOISTURE APPEARS
LIMITED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AT THIS TIME. WARMER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE
50S. A MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO GENERALLY DRY
AND MILD CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN AND ISOLD TSTMS WILL IMPACT KRIC AND KSBY FOR MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...CONTINUING THRU MIDDAY TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL REACH THE SE TAF SITES BETWEEN 07Z-11Z...AND THEN CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. PCPN WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURING AS WELL.
MVFR/IFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE PCPN THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE
IMPROVING.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL WX SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. REDUCED
FLIGHT CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DROP SSW OVERNIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SW FLOW OF 10-15KT WILL
CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SEAS OF 3-4FT WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH ~2FT WAVES IN THE BAY. THE COLD FRONT
GRADUALLY DROPS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...WITH
THE WIND BECOMING NNE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THOUGH AS THERE IS A LACK OF CAA BEHIND THE FRONT. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MAINTAINING NE FLOW AOB 15KT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. EASTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
NW AS THE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SUB-SCA. LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH NW FLOW CONTINUING. SEAS AVERAGE 3-4FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH 2-3FT WAVES IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...AJZ




000
FXUS61 KPHI 030435
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1235 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SETTLE OVER VIRGINIA
AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION TONIGHT BEFORE DRIFTING OUT TO SEA
ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY COMBINING WITH
ANOTHER LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
COMPLEX LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO MEANDER OFF OUR COAST ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD AND WEAKENING ON SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1230 AM UPDATE...STARTED TRIMMING THE THUNDER MENTION AS THE
INSTABILITY IS DECREASING WITH THE REMAINING THUNDER NOW NEAR THE
COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
STILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, HOWEVER THE FORCING WITH A
REMNANT MCV IS NOW SHIFTING OFFSHORE. WE ARE EXPECTING RENEWED
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTHWEST HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE
MORE LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE. SOME TWEAKS WERE DONE TO THE
VERY NEAR TERM HOURLY TEMPERATURES, BUT OVERALL THE FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
ON TUESDAY THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP IN THE
MORNING BUT THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS AND UVV MOVE AWAY INTO NEW ENG. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
FCST TO REMAIN OVER OR NEAR THE DELMARVA REGION WITH NELY WINDS TO
ITS NORTH OVER THE FCST AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS AND SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
A FEW BREAKS OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE AIR MASS
ALOFT WILL BE DRYING OUT SOME FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE FEATURE SINKS
SOUTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY, A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE
NORTHEASTWARD IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND PASS OVER OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE MID LEVEL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO EVENTUALLY
REACH NORTH CAROLINA LATE ON THURSDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
AND MEANDERING OFF OUR COAST ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN OPEN WAVE ON SATURDAY OR SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE MOVING TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND AWAY FROM OUR
REGION.

THE FORECAST WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BRING CLOUDS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE,
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS. AS THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM AND ITS SURFACE REFLECTION BEGIN
TO MOVE AWAY FROM OUR REGION, PARTIAL CLEARING IS POSSIBLE FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

A ROBUST SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND ANOTHER MID LEVEL LOW
OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC SHOULD REACH OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OR SUNDAY EVENING. IT IS FORECAST TO BE PRECEDED BY A
SURFACE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. WE WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SHOULD BUILD TOWARD
OUR REGION ON MONDAY. IT LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE BULK
OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE DONE AND MOVING
OFFSHORE AS OF 0430Z. THE CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR
AND IFR OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE REMAINS AND THE WINDS ARE LIGHT
NORTH OF A FRONTAL ZONE.

EVEN AFTER THE RAIN ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY MORNING, ONLY
VERY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED WITH NORTHEAST WINDS DRAWING
IN MARINE AIR. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VARYING BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS MAY
DROP TO IFR AT TIMES IN THE RAIN SHOWERS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 1230 AM...A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE NEW JERSEY COASTAL WATERS WITH
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND ARE EXPECTED TO STAY SO
THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. LIGHT SELY WIND THIS EVENING WILL
EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO NE OVER NIGHT AND TUE AS LOW PRES MOVES OFF
THE DELMARVA SHORE AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. SEAS WILL BE NO MORE THAN 2 TO 4 FT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY
BUILD AROUND 5 FEET IN THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A LONG NORTHEASTERLY FETCH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF OUR COAST
DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS WE APPROACH THE NEW MOON ON FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, THERE
COULD BE SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE
ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GORSE/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO/KLEIN
MARINE...AMC/IOVINO/KLEIN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030339
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1139 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL MAINTAIN DAILY RAIN CHANCES
THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LATE EVE UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST POPS FORE REDUCED RAIN
COVERAGE. IN GENERAL...AN ISOLD TO SCT SHOWER FORECAST WL SUFFICE
ON THE FLANK OF THE EWD SHIFTING UPR TROUGH...CENTERED OVR THE
MIDWEST THIS EVE.

CLOUD COVER AND WEAK COLD ADVCTN UNDER THE ENCROACHING UPR TROUGH
WL LIMIT TEMPERATURE RECOVERY ON TUESDAY. EXPECT READINGS ABOUT 5
DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO CARVE A DEEP TROUGH OVR THE ERN
CONUS BY WEDNESDAY. INCRSG POPS...CUMULATING IN LIKELY
NUMBERS...WERE MAINTAINED FOR THE ADVN AND PASSAGE OF THAT
SYSTEM...WITH SHOWER CHANCES AND COLD CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY.
EXPECT TEMPERATURE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BY THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE ERN CONUS TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO FILL FOR THE
START OF THE NEW WEEK. DECLINING PRECIP PROBS FROM THE WEST AND
GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURE AFTER A COLD START WL THUS
DEFINE THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR/PATCHY MVFR STRATOCU...AND A FEW SCT SHOWERS S-SE OF
PIT...SHOULD PERSIST THRU ERLY THIS MRNG WITH AN EXITING
SHORTWAVE. STRATOCU CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE THRU TUE EVE WITH AN
APPROACHING UPR TROF...THOUGH CIGS HEIGHTS FOR ALL PORTS SHOULD
RETURN TO VFR AS MIXING INCREASES.

.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WED THRU FRI WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT UPR TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07




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