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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 241145
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
645 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY VERY ISOLD SHRAS LINGER INVOF CST ATTM. SFC WARM FRONT N OF
THE FA...W/ MOST READINGS TO START THE DAY IN THE M/U60S. A
BREEZY/WINDY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED TDA. BEGINNING
TO CLR OVR INLAND AREAS...AND XPC THAT TO LEAD TO A VRB CLDS/PSNY
DAY. HANGING ONTO TO SLGT CHC/LO CHC POPS ACRS FAR SE VA/NE NC
THROUGH THIS AFTN AS MOISTURE RIBBON LINGERS UNDER SWLY FLO ALOFT.
SSW SFC WNDS TO GUST TO 30-35 MPH. HI TEMPS RANGING THROUGH THE
70S (MAYBE 80F SRN/SE VA- INTERIOR NE NC?)...SEE RECORD HI TEMPS
IN CLIMATE SECTION BLO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK CDFNT APPROACHES FM THE W THIS EVE...CROSSES THE FA OVRNGT.
WK SFC HI PRES FOLLOWS THAT CDFNT FOR TUE. WILL HAVE CLDS AND LO
POPS NR THE CST IN NE NC (TNGT). THE FNT STALLS OFFSHORE...AND
LO PRES BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE SE CONUS CST LATER TUE. HIGHS
TUE SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER
MORNING LOWS FROM THE M40S NW...TO L/M50S E.

00Z/24Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEMONSTRATE AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT
TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEAR THE SOUTHEAST CONUS LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT. THIS LOW
THEN TRACKS NNE ALONG THE COAST WED BRINGING RA TO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION ON A BUSY TRAVEL DAY. THE 00Z/24 NAM HAS NOW
JOINED THE OTHER MDLS...THOUGH ITS SFC LO TRACK IS E OF THE
GFS/ECMWF. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST RA MIXING W/ AND/OR CHANGING
TO WET SN WED AFTN ACRS INLAND AREAS (W OF I 95) - BEFORE PCPN
ENDS WED NGT. CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO EXACT FCST SN ACCUMS RMNS
LOW AT THIS TIME...AS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO COOL THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FULLY BY DYNAMICAL COOLING AS ANY CAA IS MINIMAL. GIVEN
TRACK OF SFC LO/H85 LO AND CLIMO...PSBL LGT SN ACCUMS IN ORDER OF
UP TO A COUPLE OF INCHES FAVORS NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES...THOUGH A
COATING OF SN TO PORTIONS OF THE I 95 CORRIDOR NOT RULED OUT (WED
EVE). TWO OTHER CONCERNS...MDT/HVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WNDS (ESP E
OF I 95).

CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPS TO THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S
INLAND...TO THE MID/UPPER 40S OVER SE PORTIONS...AND THESE WILL
LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z/24 GFS/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PD.
STRONG LO PRES WILL BE JUST OFF THE DE CST AT 00Z THU...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NNE AND JUST OFF THE MAINE CST
BY 12Z THU. PCPN WILL BE TAPERING OFF AND END FM SW TO NE WED EVE
INTO EARLY THU MORNG (AS EITHER SNOW SNOWERS OR A MIX OF RA/SN).

A MAINLY DRY FRONT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO THU NGT. HI
PRES WILL BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI INTO SAT...THEN SLIDES
OFF THE MID ATLC/SE CST FOR SAT AFTN THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S THU...IN THE 40S FRI...IN THE MID 40S TO
LWR 50S SAT...AND IN THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S SUN. MIN TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S THU MORNG...IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S
FRI AND SAT MORNGS...AND IN THE 30S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR TO START OFF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD AS AN AREA OF RAIN
MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE AND LO CIGS REMAIN IN ITS WAKE. CIGS MAY
RISE TO VFR LEVELS TDA...BUT SOME AREAS MAY NOT BREAK OUT. OTHER
STORY IS BREEZY SLY WINDS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT PSBL FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. CIGS MAY LWR ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENG AHEAD OF A
COLD FRNT APPROACHING FM THE W. THE FRNT WILL CROSS THE REGION
LATE TNGT/ERLY TUE...SHIFTING WINDS FM SW TO NW. WEAK HI PRES THEN
BLDS IN FOR TUE WITH VFR CONDS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MVFR OR IFR
CONDS COMES ON WED AS LO PRES LIFTS NE ALONG THE CST SPREADING
RAIN AND LO CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE INHERITED HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AS
WINDS OVR CSTL WTRS CONTINUE TO GUST NEAR 35 KT (GALE WARNING) WHILE
OVR THE BAY THEY ARE MORE IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE (SCA). THE GALE WILL
END LATE THIS MORNG...AND WILL BE REPLACED BY A SCA THRU TNGT WITH
SEAS AOA 5 FT. THE SCA OVR THE BAY ENDS LATE THIS AFTN AS STRONG SLY
FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT. THE FRNT CROSSES
THE WTRS LATE TNGT INTO TUE MORNG...WITH IMPROVING MARINE CONDS THEN
INTO TUE AFTN WITH WEAK HI PRES OVR THE AREA. STRONG NE TO NW FLOW
IS THEN EXPECTED TUE NGT THRU WED NGT...AS LO PRES TRACKS NEWRD JUST
OFF THE E CST. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG SCA CONDS EVERYWHERE
AND PSBL GALES OVR THE CSTL WTRS WITH THIS SYSTM.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED TODAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY (11/24).

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...ALB/TMG/JEF
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 241145
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
645 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY VERY ISOLD SHRAS LINGER INVOF CST ATTM. SFC WARM FRONT N OF
THE FA...W/ MOST READINGS TO START THE DAY IN THE M/U60S. A
BREEZY/WINDY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED TDA. BEGINNING
TO CLR OVR INLAND AREAS...AND XPC THAT TO LEAD TO A VRB CLDS/PSNY
DAY. HANGING ONTO TO SLGT CHC/LO CHC POPS ACRS FAR SE VA/NE NC
THROUGH THIS AFTN AS MOISTURE RIBBON LINGERS UNDER SWLY FLO ALOFT.
SSW SFC WNDS TO GUST TO 30-35 MPH. HI TEMPS RANGING THROUGH THE
70S (MAYBE 80F SRN/SE VA- INTERIOR NE NC?)...SEE RECORD HI TEMPS
IN CLIMATE SECTION BLO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK CDFNT APPROACHES FM THE W THIS EVE...CROSSES THE FA OVRNGT.
WK SFC HI PRES FOLLOWS THAT CDFNT FOR TUE. WILL HAVE CLDS AND LO
POPS NR THE CST IN NE NC (TNGT). THE FNT STALLS OFFSHORE...AND
LO PRES BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE SE CONUS CST LATER TUE. HIGHS
TUE SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER
MORNING LOWS FROM THE M40S NW...TO L/M50S E.

00Z/24Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEMONSTRATE AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT
TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEAR THE SOUTHEAST CONUS LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT. THIS LOW
THEN TRACKS NNE ALONG THE COAST WED BRINGING RA TO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION ON A BUSY TRAVEL DAY. THE 00Z/24 NAM HAS NOW
JOINED THE OTHER MDLS...THOUGH ITS SFC LO TRACK IS E OF THE
GFS/ECMWF. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST RA MIXING W/ AND/OR CHANGING
TO WET SN WED AFTN ACRS INLAND AREAS (W OF I 95) - BEFORE PCPN
ENDS WED NGT. CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO EXACT FCST SN ACCUMS RMNS
LOW AT THIS TIME...AS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO COOL THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FULLY BY DYNAMICAL COOLING AS ANY CAA IS MINIMAL. GIVEN
TRACK OF SFC LO/H85 LO AND CLIMO...PSBL LGT SN ACCUMS IN ORDER OF
UP TO A COUPLE OF INCHES FAVORS NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES...THOUGH A
COATING OF SN TO PORTIONS OF THE I 95 CORRIDOR NOT RULED OUT (WED
EVE). TWO OTHER CONCERNS...MDT/HVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WNDS (ESP E
OF I 95).

CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPS TO THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S
INLAND...TO THE MID/UPPER 40S OVER SE PORTIONS...AND THESE WILL
LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z/24 GFS/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PD.
STRONG LO PRES WILL BE JUST OFF THE DE CST AT 00Z THU...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NNE AND JUST OFF THE MAINE CST
BY 12Z THU. PCPN WILL BE TAPERING OFF AND END FM SW TO NE WED EVE
INTO EARLY THU MORNG (AS EITHER SNOW SNOWERS OR A MIX OF RA/SN).

A MAINLY DRY FRONT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO THU NGT. HI
PRES WILL BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI INTO SAT...THEN SLIDES
OFF THE MID ATLC/SE CST FOR SAT AFTN THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S THU...IN THE 40S FRI...IN THE MID 40S TO
LWR 50S SAT...AND IN THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S SUN. MIN TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S THU MORNG...IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S
FRI AND SAT MORNGS...AND IN THE 30S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR TO START OFF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD AS AN AREA OF RAIN
MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE AND LO CIGS REMAIN IN ITS WAKE. CIGS MAY
RISE TO VFR LEVELS TDA...BUT SOME AREAS MAY NOT BREAK OUT. OTHER
STORY IS BREEZY SLY WINDS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT PSBL FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. CIGS MAY LWR ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENG AHEAD OF A
COLD FRNT APPROACHING FM THE W. THE FRNT WILL CROSS THE REGION
LATE TNGT/ERLY TUE...SHIFTING WINDS FM SW TO NW. WEAK HI PRES THEN
BLDS IN FOR TUE WITH VFR CONDS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MVFR OR IFR
CONDS COMES ON WED AS LO PRES LIFTS NE ALONG THE CST SPREADING
RAIN AND LO CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE INHERITED HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AS
WINDS OVR CSTL WTRS CONTINUE TO GUST NEAR 35 KT (GALE WARNING) WHILE
OVR THE BAY THEY ARE MORE IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE (SCA). THE GALE WILL
END LATE THIS MORNG...AND WILL BE REPLACED BY A SCA THRU TNGT WITH
SEAS AOA 5 FT. THE SCA OVR THE BAY ENDS LATE THIS AFTN AS STRONG SLY
FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT. THE FRNT CROSSES
THE WTRS LATE TNGT INTO TUE MORNG...WITH IMPROVING MARINE CONDS THEN
INTO TUE AFTN WITH WEAK HI PRES OVR THE AREA. STRONG NE TO NW FLOW
IS THEN EXPECTED TUE NGT THRU WED NGT...AS LO PRES TRACKS NEWRD JUST
OFF THE E CST. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG SCA CONDS EVERYWHERE
AND PSBL GALES OVR THE CSTL WTRS WITH THIS SYSTM.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED TODAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY (11/24).

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...ALB/TMG/JEF
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...






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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241130
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
630 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY WINDS TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT AND A RETURN
TO MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FAIRLY STARK DRY SLOT IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
FOLLOWING THE SPRAWLING UPPER LOW THAT IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS HAVE MANAGED TO MIX
DOWN IN THE SUBSIDENCE IN THIS FEATURE VIA A FAIRLY DISCERNIBLE
TROPOPAUSE FOLD OVERNIGHT ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 KTS. LUCKILY
ENOUGH...THE BEST SUBSIDENCE AND DEEPEST PV PENETRATION INTO THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE HAS ALREADY CROSSED OUR AREA...SO FOR THE
MOMENT...WIND GUSTS HAVE TEMPORARILY PEAKED WITHOUT INCIDENT
ACROSS THE AREA.

YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS POISED TO TRAVERSE THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES BY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER PV FIELD WILL AGAIN BE CONTORTED BY
THIS FEATURE AS YET ANOTHER INTRUSION OF HIGH PV AIR IS SET TO
DROP THE DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE GREATLY BY AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN OHIO. THIS IS WELL DEPICTED ON MODEL CROSS SECTIONS VIA
A VERY DEEP TROPOPAUSE FOLD THAT IS PULLING THE 1.5 PVU SURFACE
DOWN TOWARD AND BELOW 600 MB ON MOST GUIDANCE. SUBSIDENCE BRINGING
THIS FEATURE DOWNWARD COMBINED WITH 55-70 KTS OF AVAILABLE
MOMENTUM WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH IN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OHIO. HOWEVER...FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH AN EAST ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND THE REMAINDER OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...A WEAKER FIELD OF MOMENTUM AND LESS POTENT
MECHANISM FOR DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER SEEM LIKELY TO ALLOW FOR
OUR GUSTS TO TOP OUT AROUND 50 MPH. THIS PUTS US JUST A BIT SHY OF
THE CRITERIA FOR A HIGH WIND WARNING...WHICH JIVES VERY WELL WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AS SUCH...WIND ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR
ALL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IF ANYWHERE IS TO OVERACHIEVE AN
ADVISORY...IT WILL LIKELY BE OUR WESTERNMOST OHIO COUNTIES OR EVEN
MERCER COUNTY AS THE HIGHEST AVAILABLE MOMENTUM VALUES ARE IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS DURING MID-AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL LIKELY TAKE A WHILE TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF THIS EVENING
WITH SOME LESSER GUSTS CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE BIGGER STORY WILL LIKELY BE THE THERMAL ROLLER
COASTER. WITH EXTREMELY STRONG MIXING AND SUBSIDENCE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF +8 TO
+10C WITH A FULLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...SOME 70S WILL CERTAINLY
BE POSSIBLE SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH...PARTICULARLY WITH A FEW
SUN BREAKS. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT RIPS THROUGH IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
DROP 850 MB TEMPERATURES INTO THE -4 TO -8C RANGE BY THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THIS WILL LIKELY DROP SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND 35
DEGREES FROM TODAY`S HIGHS TO TONIGHT`S LOWS AND RETURN US TO OUR
RECENT COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AFTER A VERY WARM MONDAY.
FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUES MORNING FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SW...BUT A STOUT INVERSION
PROGGED AT H85 WILL HOLD LLVL MOISTURE IN THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS HOLDING STEADY THROUGH THE DAY. H85 TEMPS IN
THE -4C TO -6C RANGE STEEPENS LAPSE RATES IN THE BL ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. KEEPING POPS MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-80 DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

BRIEF RESPITE FROM DISTURBED WEATHER TUES EVENING...BUT THE NEXT
SYSTEM ARRIVES WEDS MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO DISRUPT HOLIDAY
TRAVEL...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE HEADED EAST. A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WILL
TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDS WITH THE WRN EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD REACHING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE ERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. EXACT PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION DEPEND ON THE INTERACTION WITH A CLIPPER-TYPE
SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS. ATTM MODEL SOLNS STILL VARY
GREATLY WITH THE NAM BRINGING THE PLAINS SHORTWAVE IN
QUICKER...ULTIMATELY PUSHING THE COASTAL LOW EAST OF THE
AREA....HOLDING ALL PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT OUT OF OUR
RIDGES. THE 00Z ECMWF IS ON THE OPPOSITE END OF THE SPECTRUM
ALLOWING THE LOW TO TRACK FURTHER WEST WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING
WEST TO AT LEAST THE OHIO BORDER. WITH THIS MUCH SPREAD...DECIDED TO
HOLD ONTO THE SREF AS GUIDANCE...WHICH IS A DECENT COMPROMISE. POPS
WERE EXPANDED WESTWARD...HOWEVER...TO SHOW AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION GETTING WEST OF THE RIDGES.

COMPLICATING MATTERS FOR THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPS HOVERING
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING FOR LOCATIONS RECEIVING PRECIPITATION.
ATTM...OPTED FOR A MAV/MOS BLEND FOR HIGHS WEDS...AND APPLIED A
LIBERAL RAIN/SNOW DELINEATION...GIVEN THE FAIRLY COLD AIR ALOFT AND
A RELATIVELY SHALLOW WARM LAYER NEAR THE SFC. ALL TOLD...THROUGH
EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING...BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE
CLIPPER...HAVE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE RIDGES AND LITTLE TO
NO SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WEST. FOR
REFERENCE...THE GFS...WHICH HOLDS A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE 00Z ECMWF
MODEL MENTIONED ABOVE...GENERATES AROUND 6" IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS THROUGH WEDS NIGHT.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING MID-WEEK SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS THANKSGIVING NIGHT...ENHANCED JUST
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF OUR SE RIDGES.
THESE SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF EARLY FRI...HOWEVER...AS
SUBSIDENCE OCCURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS
WILL EFFECTIVELY LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND CHOKE OUT THE REMAINING
BL MOISTURE BY LATE FRI MORNING.

FROM THAT POINT THE EXTENDED PERIOD GETS A LITTLE TRICKY AS MODEL
GUIDANCE DIVERGES GREATLY. PRIMARILY STUCK CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE
BASED HEAVILY ON THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THIS BRIEFLY HOLDS THE SFC
HIGH OVER THE AREA INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE AN
UPPER TROF PROPELS A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NRN GREAT
LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT WILL STREAM ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SUN RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERS. RAISED TEMPS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WHICH MEANS THAT RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW COME INTO
PLAY...BUT ANY QPF ASSOCIATED LOOKS LIGHT.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LARGE SCALE DRY IS CURRENTLY PUSHING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WINDS GUSTING AND TURNING A BIT MORE
SOUTHERLY. BEHIND THIS DRY SLOT...WHILE STRATUS WAS SOMEWHAT
PERVASIVE EARLIER...MIXING AND SUBSIDENCE HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON
THIS STRATUS...ALLOWING FOR SKIES TO START TO BREAK UP
SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AT WORST BROKEN SKIES OVER MOST
SITES BY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL ALSO ARRIVE MORE STRONGLY BY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OVER 40
KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES. FRIES


OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE REGION TODAY. HERE IS
A SUMMARY OF CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH THE STANDING
RECORDS AND YEARS OF RECORD OCCURRENCE.

CITY                     FORECAST  RECORD/YEAR
PITTSBURGH INTERNATIONAL    71         69/1931
MORGANTOWN                  74         72/1979
ZANESVILLE                  65         70/2001
NEW PHILADELPHIA            65         71/1979
WHEELING                    71         70/2001
DUBOIS                      67         61/1979

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041.

&&

$$





  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPHI 241126
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
626 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS LATE TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM FORMING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING MOVES EAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY THANKSGIVING. A
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND DRY HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES TO THE CAROLINAS NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE  WAS LOCATED NR THE GRTLKS.  ITS ASSOCD
WMFNT MOVED THRU OVERNIGHT AND RAIN, SOME MDT TO HVY CAME ALG WITH
IT. PRECIP HAS ENDED ACRS MUCH OF THE DELMARVA AND PORTIONS OF ERN
PA, BUT IT KEPPS REDEVELOPING ACRS ERN NJ AND OVER THE WATERS. SCT
SHWRS POP UP ACR PORTIONS OF DE AT TIMES. WHILE THE OVERALL TREN
OF THE PRECIP IS FOR IT TO DIMINISH, CLEARLY IT WILL NOT BE OVER
BY 12Z AND HAVE RAISED POPS AND EXTENDED THE DURATION FOR A FEW
HOURS, AND DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS PLAY OUT IT MAY NEED TO GO A
BIT LONGER.

WITH THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR AND VERY STRONG SWLY FLOW,
TEMPS WILL SOAR INTO THE 70S AND NEAR RECORD, IF NOT RECORD
BREAKING WARMTH IS EXPECTED. IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE BREEZY, WITH
WIND GUSTING UPWARDS OF 35 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO SERN CANADA, IT`S
CDFNT WILL CROSS THE REGION ERLY TONIGHT.  HOWEVER, LATEST GUID
INDICATES IT WILL BE DRY AND POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FCST.
HIGH PRES FROM THE SW WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN AND EXPECT A GENL
CLEARING TREND BY MRNG.  IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
HIGHER THAN WHAT HIGH TEMPS SHUD BE THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL FOCUSED ON THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING TIME FRAME
AND THE POTENTIAL WINTRY IMPACTS TO THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE
YEAR.

NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS HAVE PRETTY
MUCH STAYED THE COURSE WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW, COMING INTO
SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT. THE ECMWF IS STILL THE FURTHEST WEST
AND LEAST PROGRESSIVE, WHILE THE GFS SEEMS TO BE A COMFORTABLE
MIDDLE GROUND, AT LEAST FOR THE TRACK OF THE LOW. BY 00Z
THURSDAY...THE DIFFERENCE IN THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IS ONLY ABOUT 150 MILES. THE ONE
PUZZLING THING WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS IS THAT THE GFS CAME IN
CONSIDERABLY COLDER THAN ANY OF THE OTHER MODELS, ODD GIVEN ITS
TRACK OF THE LOW. AS FAR AS PRECIP TYPE, MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE
ECMWF, GFS, AND NAM ALL INDICATE EITHER RAIN, RAIN/SNOW, OR SNOW
(ALTHOUGH THE TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF THESE TRANSITIONS ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN BETWEEN THE MODELS...SEE BELOW). THUS, AT THIS POINT
DON/T HAVE ANY CONCERNS FOR FREEZING PRECIP OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS.

LETS TALK TURKEY....FOR SNOW AMOUNTS, STILL EXPECT A PRETTY SHARP
GRADIENT ROUGHLY AROUND THE I 95 CORRIDOR. NORTH AND WEST OF THE
FALL LINE COULD SEE AMOUNTS FROM 2 UP TO 8 INCHES (THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NW NJ AND THE
POCONOS). EAST OF THE FALL LINE COULD SEE UP TO 2 INCHES. HOWEVER,
COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY ACCUMULATIONS AS WITH
THE WATER TEMPERATURE STILL IN THE 50S, THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD
KEEP THEM WELL ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH OUT THE EVENT. THE CAVEAT TO
ALL OF THIS IS THAT THE LOCATION OF THE RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION AND
EVEN SNOW RATIOS IS VERY MUCH DEPENDENT ON THE TEMPERATURE, AND
WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD OUTLIER OF THE GFS, THERE IS
POOR MODEL AGREEMENT ON THIS ISSUE, SO SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN.

THE LOW SHOULD BE OVER THE CANADIAN EASTERN MARITIMES BY THURSDAY
MORNING, SO PRECIP SHOULD MOVE OUT QUICKLY BY THEN, IF NOT SOONER.

BEYOND THANKSGIVING...STAYED CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE AND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AS TO FOCUS ON THE MID WEEK STORM. COLD AIR
SHOULD SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE
WEEK, BEFORE A NORTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING
ANOTHER WARM FRONT SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

ITS BEEN A DIFFICULT NIGHT FOR AVIATION.  THE PRECIP AND LOWER CIGS
TOOK LONGER TO MOVE IN, BUT THEN CAME DOWN FASTER THAN FCST.  NOW,
THE PRECIP IS MOVG OUT SOONER THAN EXPECTED, BUT EVEN WHEN IT IS
STILL EXPECT IFR/MVFR TO LINGER BEFORE A RETURN TO VFR LATER.
HOWEVER, WITH THE SYS MOVG OUT SOONER, PERHAPS CONDS WILL IMPROVE
SOONER THAN CURRENTLY FCST.

CURRENTLY, ALL SITES ARE EITHER MVFR OR IFR, AND THERE MAY EVEN BE
SOME LCL LIFR.  RAIN IS ENDING FROM SW TO NE AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO
SO THRU DAYBREAK.  ANY LINGERING PRECIP AFTER DAYBREAK WUD BE OVER
NRN AND ERN AREAS.

THEN CONDS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR.

A GUSTY S TO SW WIND WILL REMAIN WITH US ALL DAY WITH GUSTS NR 30
KTS IN SOME LOCATIONS.

LLWS REMAINS A THREAT THRU THE ERLY MRNG AS WELL WITH VERY STRONG
WINDS OVER 50 KTS ABV THE SFC.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...SHOULD GENERALLY BE VFR ACROSS THE REGION

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COASTAL STORM WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS. REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO
RAIN ALONG THE COAST (KACY/KMIV), RAIN SNOW MIX CHANGING TO ALL
SNOW IN THE DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY (KTTN KPNE KPHL AND KILG) AND
MOSTLY SNOW KABE AND KRDG. IN ADDITION, EXPECT PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY WINDS FOR GENERALLY THE LATTER HALF OF
THE DAY WITH GUSTS 12-25 KT FROM WEST TO EAST. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD END AS SNOW MOST TAF SITES AT NIGHT EXCEPT POSSIBLY NOT AT
KMIV/KACY.

THANKSGIVING...CONDITIONS SLOWLY RETURN TO VFR AND WINDS SHIFT TO
WESTERLY OR NORTHWEST. THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY MAINLY JUST N OF KRDG AND
KABE. WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WRNG WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT AS PREV ISSUED THRU LATER THIS
MRNG, THEN A BACK END SCA WILL BE NEEDED, LIKELY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE SHORT TERM PD.  HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SW, BUT THE
P GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL KEEP GUSTY
WIND OVER THE REGION AND THIS, IN TURN, WILL KEEP THE SEAS ELEVATED.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...NEAR OR JUST BELOW SCA CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH STRONG NORTHERLY OR
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL SLOWLY FALL TO SCA CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY FALL BELOW SCA
CRITERIA BUT ATLANTIC SEAS MAY NOT DROP BELOW 5 FT TIL AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...POSSIBLE SCA COLD AIR ADVECTION WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO THE
REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS BELOW FOR OUR FOUR
PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING UNBROKEN PERIOD OF
RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL SNOWFALL DATA.

DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS:

NOVEMBER 26TH:               NOVEMBER 27TH:       PERIOD OF RECORD:

ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955    1.2 INCHES 1978            1874

PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898         6.9 INCHES 1949,1938       1872

ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950         4.5 INCHES 1978            1894

ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925         7.0 INCHES 1938            1922

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NJZ001-007-008.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 241126
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
626 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS LATE TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM FORMING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING MOVES EAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY THANKSGIVING. A
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND DRY HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES TO THE CAROLINAS NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE  WAS LOCATED NR THE GRTLKS.  ITS ASSOCD
WMFNT MOVED THRU OVERNIGHT AND RAIN, SOME MDT TO HVY CAME ALG WITH
IT. PRECIP HAS ENDED ACRS MUCH OF THE DELMARVA AND PORTIONS OF ERN
PA, BUT IT KEPPS REDEVELOPING ACRS ERN NJ AND OVER THE WATERS. SCT
SHWRS POP UP ACR PORTIONS OF DE AT TIMES. WHILE THE OVERALL TREN
OF THE PRECIP IS FOR IT TO DIMINISH, CLEARLY IT WILL NOT BE OVER
BY 12Z AND HAVE RAISED POPS AND EXTENDED THE DURATION FOR A FEW
HOURS, AND DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS PLAY OUT IT MAY NEED TO GO A
BIT LONGER.

WITH THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR AND VERY STRONG SWLY FLOW,
TEMPS WILL SOAR INTO THE 70S AND NEAR RECORD, IF NOT RECORD
BREAKING WARMTH IS EXPECTED. IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE BREEZY, WITH
WIND GUSTING UPWARDS OF 35 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO SERN CANADA, IT`S
CDFNT WILL CROSS THE REGION ERLY TONIGHT.  HOWEVER, LATEST GUID
INDICATES IT WILL BE DRY AND POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FCST.
HIGH PRES FROM THE SW WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN AND EXPECT A GENL
CLEARING TREND BY MRNG.  IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
HIGHER THAN WHAT HIGH TEMPS SHUD BE THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL FOCUSED ON THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING TIME FRAME
AND THE POTENTIAL WINTRY IMPACTS TO THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE
YEAR.

NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS HAVE PRETTY
MUCH STAYED THE COURSE WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW, COMING INTO
SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT. THE ECMWF IS STILL THE FURTHEST WEST
AND LEAST PROGRESSIVE, WHILE THE GFS SEEMS TO BE A COMFORTABLE
MIDDLE GROUND, AT LEAST FOR THE TRACK OF THE LOW. BY 00Z
THURSDAY...THE DIFFERENCE IN THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IS ONLY ABOUT 150 MILES. THE ONE
PUZZLING THING WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS IS THAT THE GFS CAME IN
CONSIDERABLY COLDER THAN ANY OF THE OTHER MODELS, ODD GIVEN ITS
TRACK OF THE LOW. AS FAR AS PRECIP TYPE, MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE
ECMWF, GFS, AND NAM ALL INDICATE EITHER RAIN, RAIN/SNOW, OR SNOW
(ALTHOUGH THE TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF THESE TRANSITIONS ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN BETWEEN THE MODELS...SEE BELOW). THUS, AT THIS POINT
DON/T HAVE ANY CONCERNS FOR FREEZING PRECIP OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS.

LETS TALK TURKEY....FOR SNOW AMOUNTS, STILL EXPECT A PRETTY SHARP
GRADIENT ROUGHLY AROUND THE I 95 CORRIDOR. NORTH AND WEST OF THE
FALL LINE COULD SEE AMOUNTS FROM 2 UP TO 8 INCHES (THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NW NJ AND THE
POCONOS). EAST OF THE FALL LINE COULD SEE UP TO 2 INCHES. HOWEVER,
COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY ACCUMULATIONS AS WITH
THE WATER TEMPERATURE STILL IN THE 50S, THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD
KEEP THEM WELL ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH OUT THE EVENT. THE CAVEAT TO
ALL OF THIS IS THAT THE LOCATION OF THE RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION AND
EVEN SNOW RATIOS IS VERY MUCH DEPENDENT ON THE TEMPERATURE, AND
WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD OUTLIER OF THE GFS, THERE IS
POOR MODEL AGREEMENT ON THIS ISSUE, SO SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN.

THE LOW SHOULD BE OVER THE CANADIAN EASTERN MARITIMES BY THURSDAY
MORNING, SO PRECIP SHOULD MOVE OUT QUICKLY BY THEN, IF NOT SOONER.

BEYOND THANKSGIVING...STAYED CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE AND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AS TO FOCUS ON THE MID WEEK STORM. COLD AIR
SHOULD SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE
WEEK, BEFORE A NORTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING
ANOTHER WARM FRONT SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

ITS BEEN A DIFFICULT NIGHT FOR AVIATION.  THE PRECIP AND LOWER CIGS
TOOK LONGER TO MOVE IN, BUT THEN CAME DOWN FASTER THAN FCST.  NOW,
THE PRECIP IS MOVG OUT SOONER THAN EXPECTED, BUT EVEN WHEN IT IS
STILL EXPECT IFR/MVFR TO LINGER BEFORE A RETURN TO VFR LATER.
HOWEVER, WITH THE SYS MOVG OUT SOONER, PERHAPS CONDS WILL IMPROVE
SOONER THAN CURRENTLY FCST.

CURRENTLY, ALL SITES ARE EITHER MVFR OR IFR, AND THERE MAY EVEN BE
SOME LCL LIFR.  RAIN IS ENDING FROM SW TO NE AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO
SO THRU DAYBREAK.  ANY LINGERING PRECIP AFTER DAYBREAK WUD BE OVER
NRN AND ERN AREAS.

THEN CONDS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR.

A GUSTY S TO SW WIND WILL REMAIN WITH US ALL DAY WITH GUSTS NR 30
KTS IN SOME LOCATIONS.

LLWS REMAINS A THREAT THRU THE ERLY MRNG AS WELL WITH VERY STRONG
WINDS OVER 50 KTS ABV THE SFC.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...SHOULD GENERALLY BE VFR ACROSS THE REGION

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COASTAL STORM WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS. REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO
RAIN ALONG THE COAST (KACY/KMIV), RAIN SNOW MIX CHANGING TO ALL
SNOW IN THE DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY (KTTN KPNE KPHL AND KILG) AND
MOSTLY SNOW KABE AND KRDG. IN ADDITION, EXPECT PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY WINDS FOR GENERALLY THE LATTER HALF OF
THE DAY WITH GUSTS 12-25 KT FROM WEST TO EAST. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD END AS SNOW MOST TAF SITES AT NIGHT EXCEPT POSSIBLY NOT AT
KMIV/KACY.

THANKSGIVING...CONDITIONS SLOWLY RETURN TO VFR AND WINDS SHIFT TO
WESTERLY OR NORTHWEST. THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY MAINLY JUST N OF KRDG AND
KABE. WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WRNG WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT AS PREV ISSUED THRU LATER THIS
MRNG, THEN A BACK END SCA WILL BE NEEDED, LIKELY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE SHORT TERM PD.  HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SW, BUT THE
P GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL KEEP GUSTY
WIND OVER THE REGION AND THIS, IN TURN, WILL KEEP THE SEAS ELEVATED.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...NEAR OR JUST BELOW SCA CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH STRONG NORTHERLY OR
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL SLOWLY FALL TO SCA CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY FALL BELOW SCA
CRITERIA BUT ATLANTIC SEAS MAY NOT DROP BELOW 5 FT TIL AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...POSSIBLE SCA COLD AIR ADVECTION WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO THE
REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS BELOW FOR OUR FOUR
PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING UNBROKEN PERIOD OF
RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL SNOWFALL DATA.

DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS:

NOVEMBER 26TH:               NOVEMBER 27TH:       PERIOD OF RECORD:

ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955    1.2 INCHES 1978            1874

PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898         6.9 INCHES 1949,1938       1872

ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950         4.5 INCHES 1978            1894

ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925         7.0 INCHES 1938            1922

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NJZ001-007-008.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241105
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
605 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY WINDS TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT AND A RETURN
TO MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FAIRLY STARK DRY SLOT IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
FOLLOWING THE SPRAWLING UPPER LOW THAT IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS HAVE MANAGED TO MIX
DOWN IN THE SUBSIDENCE IN THIS FEATURE VIA A FAIRLY DISCERNIBLE
TROPOPAUSE FOLD OVERNIGHT ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 KTS. LUCKILY
ENOUGH...THE BEST SUBSIDENCE AND DEEPEST PV PENETRATION INTO THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE HAS ALREADY CROSSED OUR AREA...SO FOR THE
MOMENT...WIND GUSTS HAVE TEMPORARILY PEAKED WITHOUT INCIDENT
ACROSS THE AREA.

YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS POISED TO TRAVERSE THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES BY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER PV FIELD WILL AGAIN BE CONTORTED BY
THIS FEATURE AS YET ANOTHER INTRUSION OF HIGH PV AIR IS SET TO
DROP THE DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE GREATLY BY AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN OHIO. THIS IS WELL DEPICTED ON MODEL CROSS SECTIONS VIA
A VERY DEEP TROPOPAUSE FOLD THAT IS PULLING THE 1.5 PVU SURFACE
DOWN TOWARD AND BELOW 600 MB ON MOST GUIDANCE. SUBSIDENCE BRINGING
THIS FEATURE DOWNWARD COMBINED WITH 55-70 KTS OF AVAILABLE
MOMENTUM WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH IN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OHIO. HOWEVER...FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH AN EAST ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND THE REMAINDER OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...A WEAKER FIELD OF MOMENTUM AND LESS POTENT
MECHANISM FOR DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER SEEM LIKELY TO ALLOW FOR
OUR GUSTS TO TOP OUT AROUND 50 MPH. THIS PUTS US JUST A BIT SHY OF
THE CRITERIA FOR A HIGH WIND WARNING...WHICH JIVES VERY WELL WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AS SUCH...WIND ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR
ALL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IF ANYWHERE IS TO OVERACHIEVE AN
ADVISORY...IT WILL LIKELY BE OUR WESTERNMOST OHIO COUNTIES OR EVEN
MERCER COUNTY AS THE HIGHEST AVAILABLE MOMENTUM VALUES ARE IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS DURING MID-AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL LIKELY TAKE A WHILE TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF THIS EVENING
WITH SOME LESSER GUSTS CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE BIGGER STORY WILL LIKELY BE THE THERMAL ROLLER
COASTER. WITH EXTREMELY STRONG MIXING AND SUBSIDENCE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF +8 TO
+10C WITH A FULLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...SOME 70S WILL CERTAINLY
BE POSSIBLE SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH...PARTICULARLY WITH A FEW
SUN BREAKS. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT RIPS THROUGH IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
DROP 850 MB TEMPERATURES INTO THE -4 TO -8C RANGE BY THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THIS WILL LIKELY DROP SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND 35
DEGREES FROM TODAY`S HIGHS TO TONIGHT`S LOWS AND RETURN US TO OUR
RECENT COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AFTER A VERY WARM MONDAY.
FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUES MORNING FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SW...BUT A STOUT INVERSION
PROGGED AT H85 WILL HOLD LLVL MOISTURE IN THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS HOLDING STEADY THROUGH THE DAY. H85 TEMPS IN
THE -4C TO -6C RANGE STEEPENS LAPSE RATES IN THE BL ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. KEEPING POPS MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-80 DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

BRIEF RESPITE FROM DISTURBED WEATHER TUES EVENING...BUT THE NEXT
SYSTEM ARRIVES WEDS MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO DISRUPT HOLIDAY
TRAVEL...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE HEADED EAST. A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WILL
TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDS WITH THE WRN EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD REACHING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE ERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. EXACT PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION DEPEND ON THE INTERACTION WITH A CLIPPER-TYPE
SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS. ATTM MODEL SOLNS STILL VARY
GREATLY WITH THE NAM BRINGING THE PLAINS SHORTWAVE IN
QUICKER...ULTIMATELY PUSHING THE COASTAL LOW EAST OF THE
AREA....HOLDING ALL PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT OUT OF OUR
RIDGES. THE 00Z ECMWF IS ON THE OPPOSITE END OF THE SPECTRUM
ALLOWING THE LOW TO TRACK FURTHER WEST WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING
WEST TO AT LEAST THE OHIO BORDER. WITH THIS MUCH SPREAD...DECIDED TO
HOLD ONTO THE SREF AS GUIDANCE...WHICH IS A DECENT COMPROMISE. POPS
WERE EXPANDED WESTWARD...HOWEVER...TO SHOW AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION GETTING WEST OF THE RIDGES.

COMPLICATING MATTERS FOR THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPS HOVERING
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING FOR LOCATIONS RECEIVING PRECIPITATION.
ATTM...OPTED FOR A MAV/MOS BLEND FOR HIGHS WEDS...AND APPLIED A
LIBERAL RAIN/SNOW DELINEATION...GIVEN THE FAIRLY COLD AIR ALOFT AND
A RELATIVELY SHALLOW WARM LAYER NEAR THE SFC. ALL TOLD...THROUGH
EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING...BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE
CLIPPER...HAVE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE RIDGES AND LITTLE TO
NO SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WEST. FOR
REFERENCE...THE GFS...WHICH HOLDS A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE 00Z ECMWF
MODEL MENTIONED ABOVE...GENERATES AROUND 6" IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS THROUGH WEDS NIGHT.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING MID-WEEK SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS THANKSGIVING NIGHT...ENHANCED JUST
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF OUR SE RIDGES.
THESE SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF EARLY FRI...HOWEVER...AS
SUBSIDENCE OCCURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS
WILL EFFECTIVELY LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND CHOKE OUT THE REMAINING
BL MOISTURE BY LATE FRI MORNING.

FROM THAT POINT THE EXTENDED PERIOD GETS A LITTLE TRICKY AS MODEL
GUIDANCE DIVERGES GREATLY. PRIMARILY STUCK CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE
BASED HEAVILY ON THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THIS BRIEFLY HOLDS THE SFC
HIGH OVER THE AREA INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE AN
UPPER TROF PROPELS A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NRN GREAT
LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT WILL STREAM ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SUN RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERS. RAISED TEMPS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WHICH MEANS THAT RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW COME INTO
PLAY...BUT ANY QPF ASSOCIATED LOOKS LIGHT.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LARGE SCALE DRY IS CURRENTLY PUSHING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WINDS GUSTING AND TURNING A BIT MORE
SOUTHERLY. BEHIND THIS DRY SLOT...WHILE STRATUS WAS SOMEWHAT
PERVASIVE EARLIER...MIXING AND SUBSIDENCE HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON
THIS STRATUS...ALLOWING FOR SKIES TO START TO BREAK UP
SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AT WORST BROKEN SKIES OVER MOST
SITES BY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL ALSO ARRIVE MORE STRONGLY BY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OVER 40
KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES. FRIES


OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241105
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
605 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY WINDS TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT AND A RETURN
TO MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FAIRLY STARK DRY SLOT IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
FOLLOWING THE SPRAWLING UPPER LOW THAT IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS HAVE MANAGED TO MIX
DOWN IN THE SUBSIDENCE IN THIS FEATURE VIA A FAIRLY DISCERNIBLE
TROPOPAUSE FOLD OVERNIGHT ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 KTS. LUCKILY
ENOUGH...THE BEST SUBSIDENCE AND DEEPEST PV PENETRATION INTO THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE HAS ALREADY CROSSED OUR AREA...SO FOR THE
MOMENT...WIND GUSTS HAVE TEMPORARILY PEAKED WITHOUT INCIDENT
ACROSS THE AREA.

YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS POISED TO TRAVERSE THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES BY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER PV FIELD WILL AGAIN BE CONTORTED BY
THIS FEATURE AS YET ANOTHER INTRUSION OF HIGH PV AIR IS SET TO
DROP THE DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE GREATLY BY AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN OHIO. THIS IS WELL DEPICTED ON MODEL CROSS SECTIONS VIA
A VERY DEEP TROPOPAUSE FOLD THAT IS PULLING THE 1.5 PVU SURFACE
DOWN TOWARD AND BELOW 600 MB ON MOST GUIDANCE. SUBSIDENCE BRINGING
THIS FEATURE DOWNWARD COMBINED WITH 55-70 KTS OF AVAILABLE
MOMENTUM WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH IN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OHIO. HOWEVER...FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH AN EAST ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND THE REMAINDER OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...A WEAKER FIELD OF MOMENTUM AND LESS POTENT
MECHANISM FOR DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER SEEM LIKELY TO ALLOW FOR
OUR GUSTS TO TOP OUT AROUND 50 MPH. THIS PUTS US JUST A BIT SHY OF
THE CRITERIA FOR A HIGH WIND WARNING...WHICH JIVES VERY WELL WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AS SUCH...WIND ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR
ALL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IF ANYWHERE IS TO OVERACHIEVE AN
ADVISORY...IT WILL LIKELY BE OUR WESTERNMOST OHIO COUNTIES OR EVEN
MERCER COUNTY AS THE HIGHEST AVAILABLE MOMENTUM VALUES ARE IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS DURING MID-AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL LIKELY TAKE A WHILE TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF THIS EVENING
WITH SOME LESSER GUSTS CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE BIGGER STORY WILL LIKELY BE THE THERMAL ROLLER
COASTER. WITH EXTREMELY STRONG MIXING AND SUBSIDENCE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF +8 TO
+10C WITH A FULLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...SOME 70S WILL CERTAINLY
BE POSSIBLE SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH...PARTICULARLY WITH A FEW
SUN BREAKS. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT RIPS THROUGH IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
DROP 850 MB TEMPERATURES INTO THE -4 TO -8C RANGE BY THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THIS WILL LIKELY DROP SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND 35
DEGREES FROM TODAY`S HIGHS TO TONIGHT`S LOWS AND RETURN US TO OUR
RECENT COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AFTER A VERY WARM MONDAY.
FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUES MORNING FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SW...BUT A STOUT INVERSION
PROGGED AT H85 WILL HOLD LLVL MOISTURE IN THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS HOLDING STEADY THROUGH THE DAY. H85 TEMPS IN
THE -4C TO -6C RANGE STEEPENS LAPSE RATES IN THE BL ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. KEEPING POPS MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-80 DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

BRIEF RESPITE FROM DISTURBED WEATHER TUES EVENING...BUT THE NEXT
SYSTEM ARRIVES WEDS MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO DISRUPT HOLIDAY
TRAVEL...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE HEADED EAST. A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WILL
TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDS WITH THE WRN EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD REACHING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE ERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. EXACT PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION DEPEND ON THE INTERACTION WITH A CLIPPER-TYPE
SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS. ATTM MODEL SOLNS STILL VARY
GREATLY WITH THE NAM BRINGING THE PLAINS SHORTWAVE IN
QUICKER...ULTIMATELY PUSHING THE COASTAL LOW EAST OF THE
AREA....HOLDING ALL PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT OUT OF OUR
RIDGES. THE 00Z ECMWF IS ON THE OPPOSITE END OF THE SPECTRUM
ALLOWING THE LOW TO TRACK FURTHER WEST WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING
WEST TO AT LEAST THE OHIO BORDER. WITH THIS MUCH SPREAD...DECIDED TO
HOLD ONTO THE SREF AS GUIDANCE...WHICH IS A DECENT COMPROMISE. POPS
WERE EXPANDED WESTWARD...HOWEVER...TO SHOW AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION GETTING WEST OF THE RIDGES.

COMPLICATING MATTERS FOR THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPS HOVERING
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING FOR LOCATIONS RECEIVING PRECIPITATION.
ATTM...OPTED FOR A MAV/MOS BLEND FOR HIGHS WEDS...AND APPLIED A
LIBERAL RAIN/SNOW DELINEATION...GIVEN THE FAIRLY COLD AIR ALOFT AND
A RELATIVELY SHALLOW WARM LAYER NEAR THE SFC. ALL TOLD...THROUGH
EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING...BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE
CLIPPER...HAVE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE RIDGES AND LITTLE TO
NO SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WEST. FOR
REFERENCE...THE GFS...WHICH HOLDS A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE 00Z ECMWF
MODEL MENTIONED ABOVE...GENERATES AROUND 6" IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS THROUGH WEDS NIGHT.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING MID-WEEK SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS THANKSGIVING NIGHT...ENHANCED JUST
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF OUR SE RIDGES.
THESE SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF EARLY FRI...HOWEVER...AS
SUBSIDENCE OCCURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS
WILL EFFECTIVELY LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND CHOKE OUT THE REMAINING
BL MOISTURE BY LATE FRI MORNING.

FROM THAT POINT THE EXTENDED PERIOD GETS A LITTLE TRICKY AS MODEL
GUIDANCE DIVERGES GREATLY. PRIMARILY STUCK CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE
BASED HEAVILY ON THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THIS BRIEFLY HOLDS THE SFC
HIGH OVER THE AREA INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE AN
UPPER TROF PROPELS A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NRN GREAT
LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT WILL STREAM ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SUN RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERS. RAISED TEMPS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WHICH MEANS THAT RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW COME INTO
PLAY...BUT ANY QPF ASSOCIATED LOOKS LIGHT.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LARGE SCALE DRY IS CURRENTLY PUSHING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WINDS GUSTING AND TURNING A BIT MORE
SOUTHERLY. BEHIND THIS DRY SLOT...WHILE STRATUS WAS SOMEWHAT
PERVASIVE EARLIER...MIXING AND SUBSIDENCE HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON
THIS STRATUS...ALLOWING FOR SKIES TO START TO BREAK UP
SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AT WORST BROKEN SKIES OVER MOST
SITES BY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL ALSO ARRIVE MORE STRONGLY BY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OVER 40
KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES. FRIES


OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 241050
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
550 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY VERY ISOLD SHRAS LINGER INVOF CST ATTM. SFC WARM FRONT N OF
THE FA...W/ MOST READINGS TO START THE DAY IN THE M/U60S. A
BREEZY/WINDY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED TDA. BEGINNING
TO CLR OVR INLAND AREAS...AND XPC THAT TO LEAD TO A VRB CLDS/PSNY
DAY. HANGING ONTO TO SLGT CHC/LO CHC POPS ACRS FAR SE VA/NE NC
THROUGH THIS AFTN AS MOISTURE RIBBON LINGERS UNDER SWLY FLO ALOFT.
SSW SFC WNDS TO GUST TO 30-35 MPH. HI TEMPS RANGING THROUGH THE
70S (MAYBE 80F SRN/SE VA- INTERIOR NE NC?)...SEE RECORD HI TEMPS
IN CLIMATE SECTION BLO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK CDFNT APPROACHES FM THE W THIS EVE...CROSSES THE FA OVRNGT.
WK SFC HI PRES FOLLOWS THAT CDFNT FOR TUE. WILL HAVE CLDS AND LO
POPS NR THE CST IN NE NC (TNGT). THE FNT STALLS OFFSHORE...AND
LO PRES BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE SE CONUS CST LATER TUE. HIGHS
TUE SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER
MORNING LOWS FROM THE M40S NW...TO L/M50S E.

00Z/24Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEMONSTRATE AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT
TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEAR THE SOUTHEAST CONUS LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT. THIS LOW
THEN TRACKS NNE ALONG THE COAST WED BRINGING RA TO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION ON A BUSY TRAVEL DAY. THE 00Z/24 NAM HAS NOW
JOINED THE OTHER MDLS...THOUGH ITS SFC LO TRACK IS E OF THE
GFS/ECMWF. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST RA MIXING W/ AND/OR CHANGING
TO WET SN WED AFTN ACRS INLAND AREAS (W OF I 95) - BEFORE PCPN
ENDS WED NGT. CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO EXACT FCST SN ACCUMS RMNS
LOW AT THIS TIME...AS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO COOL THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FULLY BY DYNAMICAL COOLING AS ANY CAA IS MINIMAL. GIVEN
TRACK OF SFC LO/H85 LO AND CLIMO...PSBL LGT SN ACCUMS IN ORDER OF
UP TO A COUPLE OF INCHES FAVORS NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES...THOUGH A
COATING OF SN TO PORTIONS OF THE I 95 CORRIDOR NOT RULED OUT (WED
EVE). TWO OTHER CONCERNS...MDT/HVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WNDS (ESP E
OF I 95).

CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPS TO THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S
INLAND...TO THE MID/UPPER 40S OVER SE PORTIONS...AND THESE WILL
LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z/24 GFS/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PD.
STRONG LO PRES WILL BE JUST OFF THE DE CST AT 00Z THU...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NNE AND JUST OFF THE MAINE CST
BY 12Z THU. PCPN WILL BE TAPERING OFF AND END FM SW TO NE WED EVE
INTO EARLY THU MORNG (AS EITHER SNOW SNOWERS OR A MIX OF RA/SN).

A MAINLY DRY FRONT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO THU NGT. HI
PRES WILL BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI INTO SAT...THEN SLIDES
OFF THE MID ATLC/SE CST FOR SAT AFTN THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S THU...IN THE 40S FRI...IN THE MID 40S TO
LWR 50S SAT...AND IN THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S SUN. MIN TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S THU MORNG...IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S
FRI AND SAT MORNGS...AND IN THE 30S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THIS IS PUSHING
ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE INTO THE MID ATL REGION WHICH WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD THRU THE OVERNIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP THE COAST AND
SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 6Z AND 9Z. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. ALSO
EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SE TO AROUND 10 TO 20 KT
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND START TO
INCREASE IN SPEED. CEILINGS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER PASSAGE OF
THE WARM FRONT AND VFR CONDS ARE LIKELY BY LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS COMES ON WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE ALONG THE COAST SPREADING RAIN AND LOW
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE INHERITED HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AS
WINDS OVR CSTL WTRS CONTINUE TO GUST NEAR 35 KT (GALE WARNING) WHILE
OVR THE BAY THEY ARE MORE IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE (SCA). THE GALE WILL
END LATE THIS MORNG...AND WILL BE REPLACED BY A SCA THRU TNGT WITH
SEAS AOA 5 FT. THE SCA OVR THE BAY ENDS LATE THIS AFTN AS STRONG SLY
FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT. THE FRNT CROSSES
THE WTRS LATE TNGT INTO TUE MORNG...WITH IMPROVING MARINE CONDS THEN
INTO TUE AFTN WITH WEAK HI PRES OVR THE AREA. STRONG NE TO NW FLOW
IS THEN EXPECTED TUE NGT THRU WED NGT...AS LO PRES TRACKS NEWRD JUST
OFF THE E CST. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG SCA CONDS EVERYWHERE
AND PSBL GALES OVR THE CSTL WTRS WITH THIS SYSTM.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED TODAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY (11/24).

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...ALB/TMG/JEF
AVIATION...MAS/JEF
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...AKQ










000
FXUS61 KAKQ 241050
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
550 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY VERY ISOLD SHRAS LINGER INVOF CST ATTM. SFC WARM FRONT N OF
THE FA...W/ MOST READINGS TO START THE DAY IN THE M/U60S. A
BREEZY/WINDY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED TDA. BEGINNING
TO CLR OVR INLAND AREAS...AND XPC THAT TO LEAD TO A VRB CLDS/PSNY
DAY. HANGING ONTO TO SLGT CHC/LO CHC POPS ACRS FAR SE VA/NE NC
THROUGH THIS AFTN AS MOISTURE RIBBON LINGERS UNDER SWLY FLO ALOFT.
SSW SFC WNDS TO GUST TO 30-35 MPH. HI TEMPS RANGING THROUGH THE
70S (MAYBE 80F SRN/SE VA- INTERIOR NE NC?)...SEE RECORD HI TEMPS
IN CLIMATE SECTION BLO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK CDFNT APPROACHES FM THE W THIS EVE...CROSSES THE FA OVRNGT.
WK SFC HI PRES FOLLOWS THAT CDFNT FOR TUE. WILL HAVE CLDS AND LO
POPS NR THE CST IN NE NC (TNGT). THE FNT STALLS OFFSHORE...AND
LO PRES BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE SE CONUS CST LATER TUE. HIGHS
TUE SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER
MORNING LOWS FROM THE M40S NW...TO L/M50S E.

00Z/24Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEMONSTRATE AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT
TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEAR THE SOUTHEAST CONUS LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT. THIS LOW
THEN TRACKS NNE ALONG THE COAST WED BRINGING RA TO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION ON A BUSY TRAVEL DAY. THE 00Z/24 NAM HAS NOW
JOINED THE OTHER MDLS...THOUGH ITS SFC LO TRACK IS E OF THE
GFS/ECMWF. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST RA MIXING W/ AND/OR CHANGING
TO WET SN WED AFTN ACRS INLAND AREAS (W OF I 95) - BEFORE PCPN
ENDS WED NGT. CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO EXACT FCST SN ACCUMS RMNS
LOW AT THIS TIME...AS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO COOL THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FULLY BY DYNAMICAL COOLING AS ANY CAA IS MINIMAL. GIVEN
TRACK OF SFC LO/H85 LO AND CLIMO...PSBL LGT SN ACCUMS IN ORDER OF
UP TO A COUPLE OF INCHES FAVORS NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES...THOUGH A
COATING OF SN TO PORTIONS OF THE I 95 CORRIDOR NOT RULED OUT (WED
EVE). TWO OTHER CONCERNS...MDT/HVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WNDS (ESP E
OF I 95).

CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPS TO THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S
INLAND...TO THE MID/UPPER 40S OVER SE PORTIONS...AND THESE WILL
LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z/24 GFS/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PD.
STRONG LO PRES WILL BE JUST OFF THE DE CST AT 00Z THU...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NNE AND JUST OFF THE MAINE CST
BY 12Z THU. PCPN WILL BE TAPERING OFF AND END FM SW TO NE WED EVE
INTO EARLY THU MORNG (AS EITHER SNOW SNOWERS OR A MIX OF RA/SN).

A MAINLY DRY FRONT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO THU NGT. HI
PRES WILL BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI INTO SAT...THEN SLIDES
OFF THE MID ATLC/SE CST FOR SAT AFTN THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S THU...IN THE 40S FRI...IN THE MID 40S TO
LWR 50S SAT...AND IN THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S SUN. MIN TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S THU MORNG...IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S
FRI AND SAT MORNGS...AND IN THE 30S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THIS IS PUSHING
ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE INTO THE MID ATL REGION WHICH WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD THRU THE OVERNIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP THE COAST AND
SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 6Z AND 9Z. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. ALSO
EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SE TO AROUND 10 TO 20 KT
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND START TO
INCREASE IN SPEED. CEILINGS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER PASSAGE OF
THE WARM FRONT AND VFR CONDS ARE LIKELY BY LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS COMES ON WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE ALONG THE COAST SPREADING RAIN AND LOW
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE INHERITED HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AS
WINDS OVR CSTL WTRS CONTINUE TO GUST NEAR 35 KT (GALE WARNING) WHILE
OVR THE BAY THEY ARE MORE IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE (SCA). THE GALE WILL
END LATE THIS MORNG...AND WILL BE REPLACED BY A SCA THRU TNGT WITH
SEAS AOA 5 FT. THE SCA OVR THE BAY ENDS LATE THIS AFTN AS STRONG SLY
FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT. THE FRNT CROSSES
THE WTRS LATE TNGT INTO TUE MORNG...WITH IMPROVING MARINE CONDS THEN
INTO TUE AFTN WITH WEAK HI PRES OVR THE AREA. STRONG NE TO NW FLOW
IS THEN EXPECTED TUE NGT THRU WED NGT...AS LO PRES TRACKS NEWRD JUST
OFF THE E CST. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG SCA CONDS EVERYWHERE
AND PSBL GALES OVR THE CSTL WTRS WITH THIS SYSTM.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED TODAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY (11/24).

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...ALB/TMG/JEF
AVIATION...MAS/JEF
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...AKQ










000
FXUS61 KAKQ 241050
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
550 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY VERY ISOLD SHRAS LINGER INVOF CST ATTM. SFC WARM FRONT N OF
THE FA...W/ MOST READINGS TO START THE DAY IN THE M/U60S. A
BREEZY/WINDY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED TDA. BEGINNING
TO CLR OVR INLAND AREAS...AND XPC THAT TO LEAD TO A VRB CLDS/PSNY
DAY. HANGING ONTO TO SLGT CHC/LO CHC POPS ACRS FAR SE VA/NE NC
THROUGH THIS AFTN AS MOISTURE RIBBON LINGERS UNDER SWLY FLO ALOFT.
SSW SFC WNDS TO GUST TO 30-35 MPH. HI TEMPS RANGING THROUGH THE
70S (MAYBE 80F SRN/SE VA- INTERIOR NE NC?)...SEE RECORD HI TEMPS
IN CLIMATE SECTION BLO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK CDFNT APPROACHES FM THE W THIS EVE...CROSSES THE FA OVRNGT.
WK SFC HI PRES FOLLOWS THAT CDFNT FOR TUE. WILL HAVE CLDS AND LO
POPS NR THE CST IN NE NC (TNGT). THE FNT STALLS OFFSHORE...AND
LO PRES BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE SE CONUS CST LATER TUE. HIGHS
TUE SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER
MORNING LOWS FROM THE M40S NW...TO L/M50S E.

00Z/24Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEMONSTRATE AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT
TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEAR THE SOUTHEAST CONUS LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT. THIS LOW
THEN TRACKS NNE ALONG THE COAST WED BRINGING RA TO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION ON A BUSY TRAVEL DAY. THE 00Z/24 NAM HAS NOW
JOINED THE OTHER MDLS...THOUGH ITS SFC LO TRACK IS E OF THE
GFS/ECMWF. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST RA MIXING W/ AND/OR CHANGING
TO WET SN WED AFTN ACRS INLAND AREAS (W OF I 95) - BEFORE PCPN
ENDS WED NGT. CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO EXACT FCST SN ACCUMS RMNS
LOW AT THIS TIME...AS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO COOL THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FULLY BY DYNAMICAL COOLING AS ANY CAA IS MINIMAL. GIVEN
TRACK OF SFC LO/H85 LO AND CLIMO...PSBL LGT SN ACCUMS IN ORDER OF
UP TO A COUPLE OF INCHES FAVORS NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES...THOUGH A
COATING OF SN TO PORTIONS OF THE I 95 CORRIDOR NOT RULED OUT (WED
EVE). TWO OTHER CONCERNS...MDT/HVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WNDS (ESP E
OF I 95).

CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPS TO THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S
INLAND...TO THE MID/UPPER 40S OVER SE PORTIONS...AND THESE WILL
LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z/24 GFS/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PD.
STRONG LO PRES WILL BE JUST OFF THE DE CST AT 00Z THU...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NNE AND JUST OFF THE MAINE CST
BY 12Z THU. PCPN WILL BE TAPERING OFF AND END FM SW TO NE WED EVE
INTO EARLY THU MORNG (AS EITHER SNOW SNOWERS OR A MIX OF RA/SN).

A MAINLY DRY FRONT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO THU NGT. HI
PRES WILL BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI INTO SAT...THEN SLIDES
OFF THE MID ATLC/SE CST FOR SAT AFTN THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S THU...IN THE 40S FRI...IN THE MID 40S TO
LWR 50S SAT...AND IN THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S SUN. MIN TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S THU MORNG...IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S
FRI AND SAT MORNGS...AND IN THE 30S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THIS IS PUSHING
ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE INTO THE MID ATL REGION WHICH WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD THRU THE OVERNIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP THE COAST AND
SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 6Z AND 9Z. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. ALSO
EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SE TO AROUND 10 TO 20 KT
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND START TO
INCREASE IN SPEED. CEILINGS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER PASSAGE OF
THE WARM FRONT AND VFR CONDS ARE LIKELY BY LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS COMES ON WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE ALONG THE COAST SPREADING RAIN AND LOW
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE INHERITED HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AS
WINDS OVR CSTL WTRS CONTINUE TO GUST NEAR 35 KT (GALE WARNING) WHILE
OVR THE BAY THEY ARE MORE IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE (SCA). THE GALE WILL
END LATE THIS MORNG...AND WILL BE REPLACED BY A SCA THRU TNGT WITH
SEAS AOA 5 FT. THE SCA OVR THE BAY ENDS LATE THIS AFTN AS STRONG SLY
FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT. THE FRNT CROSSES
THE WTRS LATE TNGT INTO TUE MORNG...WITH IMPROVING MARINE CONDS THEN
INTO TUE AFTN WITH WEAK HI PRES OVR THE AREA. STRONG NE TO NW FLOW
IS THEN EXPECTED TUE NGT THRU WED NGT...AS LO PRES TRACKS NEWRD JUST
OFF THE E CST. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG SCA CONDS EVERYWHERE
AND PSBL GALES OVR THE CSTL WTRS WITH THIS SYSTM.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED TODAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY (11/24).

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...ALB/TMG/JEF
AVIATION...MAS/JEF
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...AKQ










000
FXUS61 KAKQ 241050
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
550 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY VERY ISOLD SHRAS LINGER INVOF CST ATTM. SFC WARM FRONT N OF
THE FA...W/ MOST READINGS TO START THE DAY IN THE M/U60S. A
BREEZY/WINDY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED TDA. BEGINNING
TO CLR OVR INLAND AREAS...AND XPC THAT TO LEAD TO A VRB CLDS/PSNY
DAY. HANGING ONTO TO SLGT CHC/LO CHC POPS ACRS FAR SE VA/NE NC
THROUGH THIS AFTN AS MOISTURE RIBBON LINGERS UNDER SWLY FLO ALOFT.
SSW SFC WNDS TO GUST TO 30-35 MPH. HI TEMPS RANGING THROUGH THE
70S (MAYBE 80F SRN/SE VA- INTERIOR NE NC?)...SEE RECORD HI TEMPS
IN CLIMATE SECTION BLO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK CDFNT APPROACHES FM THE W THIS EVE...CROSSES THE FA OVRNGT.
WK SFC HI PRES FOLLOWS THAT CDFNT FOR TUE. WILL HAVE CLDS AND LO
POPS NR THE CST IN NE NC (TNGT). THE FNT STALLS OFFSHORE...AND
LO PRES BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE SE CONUS CST LATER TUE. HIGHS
TUE SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER
MORNING LOWS FROM THE M40S NW...TO L/M50S E.

00Z/24Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEMONSTRATE AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT
TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEAR THE SOUTHEAST CONUS LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT. THIS LOW
THEN TRACKS NNE ALONG THE COAST WED BRINGING RA TO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION ON A BUSY TRAVEL DAY. THE 00Z/24 NAM HAS NOW
JOINED THE OTHER MDLS...THOUGH ITS SFC LO TRACK IS E OF THE
GFS/ECMWF. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST RA MIXING W/ AND/OR CHANGING
TO WET SN WED AFTN ACRS INLAND AREAS (W OF I 95) - BEFORE PCPN
ENDS WED NGT. CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO EXACT FCST SN ACCUMS RMNS
LOW AT THIS TIME...AS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO COOL THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FULLY BY DYNAMICAL COOLING AS ANY CAA IS MINIMAL. GIVEN
TRACK OF SFC LO/H85 LO AND CLIMO...PSBL LGT SN ACCUMS IN ORDER OF
UP TO A COUPLE OF INCHES FAVORS NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES...THOUGH A
COATING OF SN TO PORTIONS OF THE I 95 CORRIDOR NOT RULED OUT (WED
EVE). TWO OTHER CONCERNS...MDT/HVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WNDS (ESP E
OF I 95).

CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPS TO THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S
INLAND...TO THE MID/UPPER 40S OVER SE PORTIONS...AND THESE WILL
LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z/24 GFS/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PD.
STRONG LO PRES WILL BE JUST OFF THE DE CST AT 00Z THU...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NNE AND JUST OFF THE MAINE CST
BY 12Z THU. PCPN WILL BE TAPERING OFF AND END FM SW TO NE WED EVE
INTO EARLY THU MORNG (AS EITHER SNOW SNOWERS OR A MIX OF RA/SN).

A MAINLY DRY FRONT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO THU NGT. HI
PRES WILL BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI INTO SAT...THEN SLIDES
OFF THE MID ATLC/SE CST FOR SAT AFTN THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S THU...IN THE 40S FRI...IN THE MID 40S TO
LWR 50S SAT...AND IN THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S SUN. MIN TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S THU MORNG...IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S
FRI AND SAT MORNGS...AND IN THE 30S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THIS IS PUSHING
ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE INTO THE MID ATL REGION WHICH WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD THRU THE OVERNIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP THE COAST AND
SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 6Z AND 9Z. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. ALSO
EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SE TO AROUND 10 TO 20 KT
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND START TO
INCREASE IN SPEED. CEILINGS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER PASSAGE OF
THE WARM FRONT AND VFR CONDS ARE LIKELY BY LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS COMES ON WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE ALONG THE COAST SPREADING RAIN AND LOW
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE INHERITED HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AS
WINDS OVR CSTL WTRS CONTINUE TO GUST NEAR 35 KT (GALE WARNING) WHILE
OVR THE BAY THEY ARE MORE IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE (SCA). THE GALE WILL
END LATE THIS MORNG...AND WILL BE REPLACED BY A SCA THRU TNGT WITH
SEAS AOA 5 FT. THE SCA OVR THE BAY ENDS LATE THIS AFTN AS STRONG SLY
FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT. THE FRNT CROSSES
THE WTRS LATE TNGT INTO TUE MORNG...WITH IMPROVING MARINE CONDS THEN
INTO TUE AFTN WITH WEAK HI PRES OVR THE AREA. STRONG NE TO NW FLOW
IS THEN EXPECTED TUE NGT THRU WED NGT...AS LO PRES TRACKS NEWRD JUST
OFF THE E CST. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG SCA CONDS EVERYWHERE
AND PSBL GALES OVR THE CSTL WTRS WITH THIS SYSTM.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED TODAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY (11/24).

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...ALB/TMG/JEF
AVIATION...MAS/JEF
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...AKQ










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240947
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
431 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY WINDS TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT AND A RETURN
TO MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FAIRLY STARK DRY SLOT IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
FOLLOWING THE SPRAWLING UPPER LOW THAT IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS HAVE MANAGED TO MIX
DOWN IN THE SUBSIDENCE IN THIS FEATURE VIA A FAIRLY DISCERNIBLE
TROPOPAUSE FOLD OVERNIGHT ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 KTS. LUCKILY
ENOUGH...THE BEST SUBSIDENCE AND DEEPEST PV PENETRATION INTO THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE HAS ALREADY CROSSED OUR AREA...SO FOR THE
MOMENT...WIND GUSTS HAVE TEMPORARILY PEAKED WITHOUT INCIDENT
ACROSS THE AREA.

YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS POISED TO TRAVERSE THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES BY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER PV FIELD WILL AGAIN BE CONTORTED BY
THIS FEATURE AS YET ANOTHER INTRUSION OF HIGH PV AIR IS SET TO
DROP THE DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE GREATLY BY AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN OHIO. THIS IS WELL DEPICTED ON MODEL CROSS SECTIONS VIA
A VERY DEEP TROPOPAUSE FOLD THAT IS PULLING THE 1.5 PVU SURFACE
DOWN TOWARD AND BELOW 600 MB ON MOST GUIDANCE. SUBSIDENCE BRINGING
THIS FEATURE DOWNWARD COMBINED WITH 55-70 KTS OF AVAILABLE
MOMENTUM WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH IN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OHIO. HOWEVER...FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH AN EAST ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND THE REMAINDER OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...A WEAKER FIELD OF MOMENTUM AND LESS POTENT
MECHANISM FOR DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER SEEM LIKELY TO ALLOW FOR
OUR GUSTS TO TOP OUT AROUND 50 MPH. THIS PUTS US JUST A BIT SHY OF
THE CRITERIA FOR A HIGH WIND WARNING...WHICH JIVES VERY WELL WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AS SUCH...WIND ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR
ALL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IF ANYWHERE IS TO OVERACHIEVE AN
ADVISORY...IT WILL LIKELY BE OUR WESTERNMOST OHIO COUNTIES OR EVEN
MERCER COUNTY AS THE HIGHEST AVAILABLE MOMENTUM VALUES ARE IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS DURING MID-AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL LIKELY TAKE A WHILE TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF THIS EVENING
WITH SOME LESSER GUSTS CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE BIGGER STORY WILL LIKELY BE THE THERMAL ROLLER
COASTER. WITH EXTREMELY STRONG MIXING AND SUBSIDENCE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF +8 TO
+10C WITH A FULLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...SOME 70S WILL CERTAINLY
BE POSSIBLE SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH...PARTICULARLY WITH A FEW
SUN BREAKS. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT RIPS THROUGH IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
DROP 850 MB TEMPERATURES INTO THE -4 TO -8C RANGE BY THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THIS WILL LIKELY DROP SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND 35
DEGREES FROM TODAY`S HIGHS TO TONIGHT`S LOWS AND RETURN US TO OUR
RECENT COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AFTER A VERY WARM MONDAY.
FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUES MORNING FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SW...BUT A STOUT INVERSION
PROGGED AT H85 WILL HOLD LLVL MOISTURE IN THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS HOLDING STEADY THROUGH THE DAY. H85 TEMPS IN
THE -4C TO -6C RANGE STEEPENS LAPSE RATES IN THE BL ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. KEEPING POPS MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-80 DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

BRIEF RESPITE FROM DISTURBED WEATHER TUES EVENING...BUT THE NEXT
SYSTEM ARRIVES WEDS MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO DISRUPT HOLIDAY
TRAVEL...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE HEADED EAST. A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WILL
TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDS WITH THE WRN EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD REACHING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE ERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. EXACT PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION DEPEND ON THE INTERACTION WITH A CLIPPER-TYPE
SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS. ATTM MODEL SOLNS STILL VARY
GREATLY WITH THE NAM BRINGING THE PLAINS SHORTWAVE IN
QUICKER...ULTIMATELY PUSHING THE COASTAL LOW EAST OF THE
AREA....HOLDING ALL PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT OUT OF OUR
RIDGES. THE 00Z ECMWF IS ON THE OPPOSITE END OF THE SPECTRUM
ALLOWING THE LOW TO TRACK FURTHER WEST WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING
WEST TO AT LEAST THE OHIO BORDER. WITH THIS MUCH SPREAD...DECIDED TO
HOLD ONTO THE SREF AS GUIDANCE...WHICH IS A DECENT COMPROMISE. POPS
WERE EXPANDED WESTWARD...HOWEVER...TO SHOW AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION GETTING WEST OF THE RIDGES.

COMPLICATING MATTERS FOR THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPS HOVERING
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING FOR LOCATIONS RECEIVING PRECIPITATION.
ATTM...OPTED FOR A MAV/MOS BLEND FOR HIGHS WEDS...AND APPLIED A
LIBERAL RAIN/SNOW DELINEATION...GIVEN THE FAIRLY COLD AIR ALOFT AND
A RELATIVELY SHALLOW WARM LAYER NEAR THE SFC. ALL TOLD...THROUGH
EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING...BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE
CLIPPER...HAVE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE RIDGES AND LITTLE TO
NO SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WEST. FOR
REFERENCE...THE GFS...WHICH HOLDS A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE 00Z ECMWF
MODEL MENTIONED ABOVE...GENERATES AROUND 6" IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS THROUGH WEDS NIGHT.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING MID-WEEK SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS THANKSGIVING NIGHT...ENHANCED JUST
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF OUR SE RIDGES.
THESE SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF EARLY FRI...HOWEVER...AS
SUBSIDENCE OCCURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS
WILL EFFECTIVELY LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND CHOKE OUT THE REMAINING
BL MOISTURE BY LATE FRI MORNING.

FROM THAT POINT THE EXTENDED PERIOD GETS A LITTLE TRICKY AS MODEL
GUIDANCE DIVERGES GREATLY. PRIMARILY STUCK CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE
BASED HEAVILY ON THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THIS BRIEFLY HOLDS THE SFC
HIGH OVER THE AREA INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE AN
UPPER TROF PROPELS A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NRN GREAT
LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT WILL STREAM ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SUN RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERS. RAISED TEMPS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WHICH MEANS THAT RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW COME INTO
PLAY...BUT ANY QPF ASSOCIATED LOOKS LIGHT.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ADVANCING
TOWARD ONLY THE MOST NORTHERN TAF SITES AT THIS HOUR. A LARGE
SCALE DRY SLOT FOLLOWS IT WITH WINDS GUSTING AND TURNING A BIT
MORE SOUTHERLY. BEHIND THIS DRY SLOT...STRATUS IS ADVANCING
NORTHEASTWARD AND WILL LIKELY COME OVER MOST SITES IN THE WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW BY
AFTERNOON AS STRATUS SCOURS OUT. WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES. FRIES


OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240947
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
431 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY WINDS TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT AND A RETURN
TO MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FAIRLY STARK DRY SLOT IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
FOLLOWING THE SPRAWLING UPPER LOW THAT IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS HAVE MANAGED TO MIX
DOWN IN THE SUBSIDENCE IN THIS FEATURE VIA A FAIRLY DISCERNIBLE
TROPOPAUSE FOLD OVERNIGHT ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 KTS. LUCKILY
ENOUGH...THE BEST SUBSIDENCE AND DEEPEST PV PENETRATION INTO THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE HAS ALREADY CROSSED OUR AREA...SO FOR THE
MOMENT...WIND GUSTS HAVE TEMPORARILY PEAKED WITHOUT INCIDENT
ACROSS THE AREA.

YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS POISED TO TRAVERSE THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES BY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER PV FIELD WILL AGAIN BE CONTORTED BY
THIS FEATURE AS YET ANOTHER INTRUSION OF HIGH PV AIR IS SET TO
DROP THE DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE GREATLY BY AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN OHIO. THIS IS WELL DEPICTED ON MODEL CROSS SECTIONS VIA
A VERY DEEP TROPOPAUSE FOLD THAT IS PULLING THE 1.5 PVU SURFACE
DOWN TOWARD AND BELOW 600 MB ON MOST GUIDANCE. SUBSIDENCE BRINGING
THIS FEATURE DOWNWARD COMBINED WITH 55-70 KTS OF AVAILABLE
MOMENTUM WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH IN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OHIO. HOWEVER...FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH AN EAST ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND THE REMAINDER OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...A WEAKER FIELD OF MOMENTUM AND LESS POTENT
MECHANISM FOR DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER SEEM LIKELY TO ALLOW FOR
OUR GUSTS TO TOP OUT AROUND 50 MPH. THIS PUTS US JUST A BIT SHY OF
THE CRITERIA FOR A HIGH WIND WARNING...WHICH JIVES VERY WELL WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AS SUCH...WIND ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR
ALL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IF ANYWHERE IS TO OVERACHIEVE AN
ADVISORY...IT WILL LIKELY BE OUR WESTERNMOST OHIO COUNTIES OR EVEN
MERCER COUNTY AS THE HIGHEST AVAILABLE MOMENTUM VALUES ARE IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS DURING MID-AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL LIKELY TAKE A WHILE TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF THIS EVENING
WITH SOME LESSER GUSTS CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE BIGGER STORY WILL LIKELY BE THE THERMAL ROLLER
COASTER. WITH EXTREMELY STRONG MIXING AND SUBSIDENCE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF +8 TO
+10C WITH A FULLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...SOME 70S WILL CERTAINLY
BE POSSIBLE SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH...PARTICULARLY WITH A FEW
SUN BREAKS. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT RIPS THROUGH IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
DROP 850 MB TEMPERATURES INTO THE -4 TO -8C RANGE BY THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THIS WILL LIKELY DROP SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND 35
DEGREES FROM TODAY`S HIGHS TO TONIGHT`S LOWS AND RETURN US TO OUR
RECENT COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AFTER A VERY WARM MONDAY.
FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUES MORNING FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SW...BUT A STOUT INVERSION
PROGGED AT H85 WILL HOLD LLVL MOISTURE IN THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS HOLDING STEADY THROUGH THE DAY. H85 TEMPS IN
THE -4C TO -6C RANGE STEEPENS LAPSE RATES IN THE BL ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. KEEPING POPS MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-80 DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

BRIEF RESPITE FROM DISTURBED WEATHER TUES EVENING...BUT THE NEXT
SYSTEM ARRIVES WEDS MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO DISRUPT HOLIDAY
TRAVEL...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE HEADED EAST. A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WILL
TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDS WITH THE WRN EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD REACHING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE ERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. EXACT PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION DEPEND ON THE INTERACTION WITH A CLIPPER-TYPE
SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS. ATTM MODEL SOLNS STILL VARY
GREATLY WITH THE NAM BRINGING THE PLAINS SHORTWAVE IN
QUICKER...ULTIMATELY PUSHING THE COASTAL LOW EAST OF THE
AREA....HOLDING ALL PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT OUT OF OUR
RIDGES. THE 00Z ECMWF IS ON THE OPPOSITE END OF THE SPECTRUM
ALLOWING THE LOW TO TRACK FURTHER WEST WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING
WEST TO AT LEAST THE OHIO BORDER. WITH THIS MUCH SPREAD...DECIDED TO
HOLD ONTO THE SREF AS GUIDANCE...WHICH IS A DECENT COMPROMISE. POPS
WERE EXPANDED WESTWARD...HOWEVER...TO SHOW AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION GETTING WEST OF THE RIDGES.

COMPLICATING MATTERS FOR THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPS HOVERING
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING FOR LOCATIONS RECEIVING PRECIPITATION.
ATTM...OPTED FOR A MAV/MOS BLEND FOR HIGHS WEDS...AND APPLIED A
LIBERAL RAIN/SNOW DELINEATION...GIVEN THE FAIRLY COLD AIR ALOFT AND
A RELATIVELY SHALLOW WARM LAYER NEAR THE SFC. ALL TOLD...THROUGH
EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING...BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE
CLIPPER...HAVE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE RIDGES AND LITTLE TO
NO SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WEST. FOR
REFERENCE...THE GFS...WHICH HOLDS A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE 00Z ECMWF
MODEL MENTIONED ABOVE...GENERATES AROUND 6" IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS THROUGH WEDS NIGHT.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING MID-WEEK SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS THANKSGIVING NIGHT...ENHANCED JUST
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF OUR SE RIDGES.
THESE SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF EARLY FRI...HOWEVER...AS
SUBSIDENCE OCCURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS
WILL EFFECTIVELY LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND CHOKE OUT THE REMAINING
BL MOISTURE BY LATE FRI MORNING.

FROM THAT POINT THE EXTENDED PERIOD GETS A LITTLE TRICKY AS MODEL
GUIDANCE DIVERGES GREATLY. PRIMARILY STUCK CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE
BASED HEAVILY ON THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THIS BRIEFLY HOLDS THE SFC
HIGH OVER THE AREA INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE AN
UPPER TROF PROPELS A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NRN GREAT
LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT WILL STREAM ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SUN RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERS. RAISED TEMPS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WHICH MEANS THAT RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW COME INTO
PLAY...BUT ANY QPF ASSOCIATED LOOKS LIGHT.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ADVANCING
TOWARD ONLY THE MOST NORTHERN TAF SITES AT THIS HOUR. A LARGE
SCALE DRY SLOT FOLLOWS IT WITH WINDS GUSTING AND TURNING A BIT
MORE SOUTHERLY. BEHIND THIS DRY SLOT...STRATUS IS ADVANCING
NORTHEASTWARD AND WILL LIKELY COME OVER MOST SITES IN THE WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW BY
AFTERNOON AS STRATUS SCOURS OUT. WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES. FRIES


OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240947
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
431 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY WINDS TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT AND A RETURN
TO MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FAIRLY STARK DRY SLOT IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
FOLLOWING THE SPRAWLING UPPER LOW THAT IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS HAVE MANAGED TO MIX
DOWN IN THE SUBSIDENCE IN THIS FEATURE VIA A FAIRLY DISCERNIBLE
TROPOPAUSE FOLD OVERNIGHT ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 KTS. LUCKILY
ENOUGH...THE BEST SUBSIDENCE AND DEEPEST PV PENETRATION INTO THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE HAS ALREADY CROSSED OUR AREA...SO FOR THE
MOMENT...WIND GUSTS HAVE TEMPORARILY PEAKED WITHOUT INCIDENT
ACROSS THE AREA.

YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS POISED TO TRAVERSE THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES BY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER PV FIELD WILL AGAIN BE CONTORTED BY
THIS FEATURE AS YET ANOTHER INTRUSION OF HIGH PV AIR IS SET TO
DROP THE DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE GREATLY BY AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN OHIO. THIS IS WELL DEPICTED ON MODEL CROSS SECTIONS VIA
A VERY DEEP TROPOPAUSE FOLD THAT IS PULLING THE 1.5 PVU SURFACE
DOWN TOWARD AND BELOW 600 MB ON MOST GUIDANCE. SUBSIDENCE BRINGING
THIS FEATURE DOWNWARD COMBINED WITH 55-70 KTS OF AVAILABLE
MOMENTUM WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH IN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OHIO. HOWEVER...FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH AN EAST ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND THE REMAINDER OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...A WEAKER FIELD OF MOMENTUM AND LESS POTENT
MECHANISM FOR DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER SEEM LIKELY TO ALLOW FOR
OUR GUSTS TO TOP OUT AROUND 50 MPH. THIS PUTS US JUST A BIT SHY OF
THE CRITERIA FOR A HIGH WIND WARNING...WHICH JIVES VERY WELL WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AS SUCH...WIND ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR
ALL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IF ANYWHERE IS TO OVERACHIEVE AN
ADVISORY...IT WILL LIKELY BE OUR WESTERNMOST OHIO COUNTIES OR EVEN
MERCER COUNTY AS THE HIGHEST AVAILABLE MOMENTUM VALUES ARE IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS DURING MID-AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL LIKELY TAKE A WHILE TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF THIS EVENING
WITH SOME LESSER GUSTS CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE BIGGER STORY WILL LIKELY BE THE THERMAL ROLLER
COASTER. WITH EXTREMELY STRONG MIXING AND SUBSIDENCE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF +8 TO
+10C WITH A FULLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...SOME 70S WILL CERTAINLY
BE POSSIBLE SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH...PARTICULARLY WITH A FEW
SUN BREAKS. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT RIPS THROUGH IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
DROP 850 MB TEMPERATURES INTO THE -4 TO -8C RANGE BY THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THIS WILL LIKELY DROP SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND 35
DEGREES FROM TODAY`S HIGHS TO TONIGHT`S LOWS AND RETURN US TO OUR
RECENT COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AFTER A VERY WARM MONDAY.
FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUES MORNING FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SW...BUT A STOUT INVERSION
PROGGED AT H85 WILL HOLD LLVL MOISTURE IN THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS HOLDING STEADY THROUGH THE DAY. H85 TEMPS IN
THE -4C TO -6C RANGE STEEPENS LAPSE RATES IN THE BL ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. KEEPING POPS MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-80 DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

BRIEF RESPITE FROM DISTURBED WEATHER TUES EVENING...BUT THE NEXT
SYSTEM ARRIVES WEDS MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO DISRUPT HOLIDAY
TRAVEL...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE HEADED EAST. A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WILL
TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDS WITH THE WRN EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD REACHING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE ERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. EXACT PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION DEPEND ON THE INTERACTION WITH A CLIPPER-TYPE
SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS. ATTM MODEL SOLNS STILL VARY
GREATLY WITH THE NAM BRINGING THE PLAINS SHORTWAVE IN
QUICKER...ULTIMATELY PUSHING THE COASTAL LOW EAST OF THE
AREA....HOLDING ALL PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT OUT OF OUR
RIDGES. THE 00Z ECMWF IS ON THE OPPOSITE END OF THE SPECTRUM
ALLOWING THE LOW TO TRACK FURTHER WEST WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING
WEST TO AT LEAST THE OHIO BORDER. WITH THIS MUCH SPREAD...DECIDED TO
HOLD ONTO THE SREF AS GUIDANCE...WHICH IS A DECENT COMPROMISE. POPS
WERE EXPANDED WESTWARD...HOWEVER...TO SHOW AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION GETTING WEST OF THE RIDGES.

COMPLICATING MATTERS FOR THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPS HOVERING
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING FOR LOCATIONS RECEIVING PRECIPITATION.
ATTM...OPTED FOR A MAV/MOS BLEND FOR HIGHS WEDS...AND APPLIED A
LIBERAL RAIN/SNOW DELINEATION...GIVEN THE FAIRLY COLD AIR ALOFT AND
A RELATIVELY SHALLOW WARM LAYER NEAR THE SFC. ALL TOLD...THROUGH
EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING...BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE
CLIPPER...HAVE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE RIDGES AND LITTLE TO
NO SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WEST. FOR
REFERENCE...THE GFS...WHICH HOLDS A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE 00Z ECMWF
MODEL MENTIONED ABOVE...GENERATES AROUND 6" IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS THROUGH WEDS NIGHT.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING MID-WEEK SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS THANKSGIVING NIGHT...ENHANCED JUST
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF OUR SE RIDGES.
THESE SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF EARLY FRI...HOWEVER...AS
SUBSIDENCE OCCURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS
WILL EFFECTIVELY LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND CHOKE OUT THE REMAINING
BL MOISTURE BY LATE FRI MORNING.

FROM THAT POINT THE EXTENDED PERIOD GETS A LITTLE TRICKY AS MODEL
GUIDANCE DIVERGES GREATLY. PRIMARILY STUCK CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE
BASED HEAVILY ON THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THIS BRIEFLY HOLDS THE SFC
HIGH OVER THE AREA INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE AN
UPPER TROF PROPELS A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NRN GREAT
LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT WILL STREAM ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SUN RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERS. RAISED TEMPS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WHICH MEANS THAT RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW COME INTO
PLAY...BUT ANY QPF ASSOCIATED LOOKS LIGHT.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ADVANCING
TOWARD ONLY THE MOST NORTHERN TAF SITES AT THIS HOUR. A LARGE
SCALE DRY SLOT FOLLOWS IT WITH WINDS GUSTING AND TURNING A BIT
MORE SOUTHERLY. BEHIND THIS DRY SLOT...STRATUS IS ADVANCING
NORTHEASTWARD AND WILL LIKELY COME OVER MOST SITES IN THE WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW BY
AFTERNOON AS STRATUS SCOURS OUT. WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES. FRIES


OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041.

&&

$$








  [top]

000
FXUS61 KLWX 240907
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
407 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFYING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH
ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC WMFNT HAS JUMPED N OF CWFA. LTST TEMPS E OF THE BLURDG ARND 60F
AT 08Z. I-81 CRRDR AND FOOTHILLS LAGGING A BIT BHD...BUT A GUSTY SLY
FLOW RESIDES AREAWIDE...SO THE WARM PUSH SHUD ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE
AREA BY DAYBREAK. THE FNT WAS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PCPN. THUS...THE
LGT-MDT STRATIFORM RA ALREADY ACRS THE DELMARVA AND POINTS N OF
THERE. HV LGT RESIDUAL SHRA...SPCLY BTWN I-95 AND THE BLURDG DUE TO
A SLGT UPSLP COMPONENT. HWVR...THE FORCING FOR THAT WL WANE BY
SUNRISE AS WELL.

THE CWFA WL BE W/IN STRONG SLY FLOW TDA. THE CDFNT WL DROP INTO AREA
AFTR 18Z...BUT IT REMAINS MOISTURE STARVED W/ DYNAMIC FORCING ACRS
OF W OF THE OHVLY. THUS...BELIEVE IT WL COME THRU DRY...AND HV
PULLED POPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. RH PROFILES DO INDICATE HIGH
ENUF VALUES IN THE LLVLS FOR CONTD CLDCVR TIL MIDDAY. HWVR...MEAN
LYR RH THINS OUT DURING THE AFTN...AND XPCT INCRSG SUNSHN.

CONSIDERING THE WARM START AND H8 TEMPS RISING TO 12-14C...HV RAISED
MAXT SVRL DEGF. WL HV HIGHS AOA 70F AREAWIDE...AND A CRRDR IN THE
MID 70S BALT-DC-EZF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
RDGG WL BLD ACRS THE CWFA FM THE W TNGT-TUE...FOR A PD OF DRY WX.
HWVR...UPR LVL CLDS WL BE INCRSG ONCE AGN TUE AFTN IN ADVC OF AN
IMPULSE OVER THE SERN CONUS. ALTHO H8 TEMPS WL BE DROPPING...THE
CORE OF THE COOLER AIR WL HANG BACK W OF THE MTNS...ALONG W/ THE
CENTER OF THE RDG. THEREFORE...ITS NOT GOING TO GET ALL THAT COLD...
JUST COOLER THAN TDA. MIN-T FCST STILL A LTL ABV CLIMO...AND MAXT
TUE RIGHT AT CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY.

A 500 MB UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS WITH
THE AXIS ACROSS THE MID-WEST TUESDAY NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND NRLY WINDS WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR
OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT THAT WENT THROUGH THE EASTERN SEABOARD
MONDAY NIGHT WILL INTERACT WITH THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM
TUESDAY NIGHT. A 170+KT JET WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
REGION WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET ACROSS THE SE
STATES. THE COLD AIR AND WARM WATER INTERACTION AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WILL CAUSE CYCLOGENESIS. THE 500 MB TROUGH WILL TREK
EASTWARD INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE
EAST COAST.

GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN OFF
THE EAST COAST AS IT MOVES N-NE PARELLEL TO THE EAST COAST. THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW MOVES IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE ECMWF IS CLOSER
THAN THE GFS/NAM. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
THE LOW 30S ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND NEAR 40 NEAR THE WATERS. USED
SREF TEMPS AS IT HAS BEEN DOING WELL WITH TEMPS FOR THE
MID-ATLANTIC. MOISTURE WILL FEED INTO THE LOW WEDNESDAY AND
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WED MORNING.
MAX TEMPS FOR THE DAY WILL LIKELY BE REACHED WED MORNING AS PRECIP
MOVES QUICKLY INTO THE REGION. DYNAMICAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
DROP FURTHER INTO THE MID 30S...A CRITICAL ZONE. SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE BLUE
RIDGE...VA HIGHLANDS AND THE WESTERN SLOPES AS THEY WILL BE NEAR
FREEZING IF NOT BELOW. RAIN AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED FURTHER EAST AND
IN LOWER LYING AREAS. ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN PIEDMONT
INTO THE DC METRO AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND WED MORNING AS TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR 40.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED NORTH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS AROUND FREEZING WILL BE FURTHER NORTH WHILE
DEWPTS WILL BE AROUND FREEZING. NRLY WINDS WILL BE ADVECTING IN
THESE TEMPS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NOT TOO
EXCITED THAT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE FROM DYNAMICAL
COOLING AND NOT A BELOW FREEZING AIRMASS. WITH THAT BEING SAID
WENT WITH THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SUBURBS OF
BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON DC. THIS WILL LEAD TO ACCUMULATION ACROSS
THIS AREA. TAKING THICKNESSES INTO ACCOUNT FROM SREF MEAN...3-5
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE N-W SUBURBS OF BALTIMORE AND
WASHINGTON DC THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHER AMTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE AND PORTIONS OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. TEMPS ALONG
I-95 AND FURTHER EAST WILL BE WARMER AND THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL
LIKELY SETUP ACROSS THE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON METRO AREA RESULTING
IN A SHARP GRADIENT OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. LESS THAN AN INCH IS
EXPECTED FOR BALTIMORE/DC AT THIS TIME.

THIS COASTAL STORM WILL MOVE OUT QUICK AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL WRAP UP
WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR-IFR FLGT CONDS ATTM...DUE MAINLY TO CIGS. AM XPCTG A SLGT
IMPRVMNT THRU DAYBREAK...AND THEN CIGS WL BE LIFTING TO VFR BY NOON.
VFR SHUD PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PD.

WNDS WL BE THE OTHER ISSUE. SLY WINDS 15-25 KT ATTM AT THE SFC. LWX
VWP INDICATES 40 KT AT 2K FT. HV LLWS GROUP CONTG...ALTHO THE JET
AXIS SHUD BE PASSING NE OF TERMINALS SHORTLY /BTWN 09-10Z/. WINDS WL
STILL BE STRONG THRUT THE DAY...W/ MEAN LYR MIXING SUGGESTING A FEW
GUSTS SHUD REACH AOA 30KT ELY TAFTN. WNDS WL BECOME WLY TNGT..AND
DIMINISH TO ARND 10-15 KT.

VFR TUE. WLY WINDS CONTG 10-15 KT.

RAIN AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BECOME IFR BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS RAIN OR SNOW WHICH MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES
RESULT IN LOW VSBYS. N WINDS 10-15 KTS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
BECOMING NW 10-15 KTS WED NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THURSDAY
MORNING BUT ADDITIONAL -SN IS POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.
&&

.MARINE...
SCA ACRS ALL WATERS ATTM...W/ STRONG SCA UP THE BAY. RECENTLY SAW A
33KT GUST AT NAK...WHICH IS ALSO REFLECTED AT TPLM2. WL MONITOR THAT
CLOSELY. IF ITS A TREND AND NOT AN OUTLIER...WL EITHER NEED TO RAISE
GLW OR ADD A MWS. SUSPECT THE LATTER WL BE THE COURSE OF ACTION.

THERE WL BE ANOTHER PEAK IN THE MIXED PROFILE ELY TAFTN WHERE WNDS
MAY REACH 30-35 KT. HV CAPPED WNDS AT 30 KT ATTM DUE TO WATER TEMPS
IN THE 40S. IF WE NEED TO CHANGE COURSE OF ACTION THIS MRNG...WL
NEED TO ADJUST REST OF DAY AS WELL.

WNDS WL VEER WLY TNGT AS CDFNT CROSSES WATERS. FNT WL BE LOSING
SUPPORT...AND THUS WONT BE XTNDG ONTO CURRENT SCA...WHICH ENDS 01Z
MID-UPR PTMC AND 06Z ELSW.

A LIGHTER WLY FLOW WL CONT INTO TUE...10-15 KT.

N-NE WINDS 10-15KTS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COASTAL LOW
APPROACHES THE BAY REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGER AS THE LOW
GETS CLOSER AND SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY WEDNESDAY. THE
COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA AND WINDS WILL BECOME NWLY WED
NIGHT. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME AND
SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
IN SPITE OF A STRONG SLY FLOW...WATER LVLS HAVE REMAINED NEAR OR BLO
ASTRO NORMS. THEREFORE...NO ISSUES EXPECTED TODAY OR TOMORROW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY FOR DCA/IAD/BWI WOULD ALL COME
VERY NEAR CURRENT RECORDS. HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGHS AND THE YEAR
THEY OCCURRED...

DCA...74 IN 1958.
IAD...74 IN 1979.
BWI...73 IN 1979.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...HAS
AVIATION...HTS/HAS
MARINE...HTS/HAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS
CLIMATE...HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 240907
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
407 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFYING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH
ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC WMFNT HAS JUMPED N OF CWFA. LTST TEMPS E OF THE BLURDG ARND 60F
AT 08Z. I-81 CRRDR AND FOOTHILLS LAGGING A BIT BHD...BUT A GUSTY SLY
FLOW RESIDES AREAWIDE...SO THE WARM PUSH SHUD ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE
AREA BY DAYBREAK. THE FNT WAS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PCPN. THUS...THE
LGT-MDT STRATIFORM RA ALREADY ACRS THE DELMARVA AND POINTS N OF
THERE. HV LGT RESIDUAL SHRA...SPCLY BTWN I-95 AND THE BLURDG DUE TO
A SLGT UPSLP COMPONENT. HWVR...THE FORCING FOR THAT WL WANE BY
SUNRISE AS WELL.

THE CWFA WL BE W/IN STRONG SLY FLOW TDA. THE CDFNT WL DROP INTO AREA
AFTR 18Z...BUT IT REMAINS MOISTURE STARVED W/ DYNAMIC FORCING ACRS
OF W OF THE OHVLY. THUS...BELIEVE IT WL COME THRU DRY...AND HV
PULLED POPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. RH PROFILES DO INDICATE HIGH
ENUF VALUES IN THE LLVLS FOR CONTD CLDCVR TIL MIDDAY. HWVR...MEAN
LYR RH THINS OUT DURING THE AFTN...AND XPCT INCRSG SUNSHN.

CONSIDERING THE WARM START AND H8 TEMPS RISING TO 12-14C...HV RAISED
MAXT SVRL DEGF. WL HV HIGHS AOA 70F AREAWIDE...AND A CRRDR IN THE
MID 70S BALT-DC-EZF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
RDGG WL BLD ACRS THE CWFA FM THE W TNGT-TUE...FOR A PD OF DRY WX.
HWVR...UPR LVL CLDS WL BE INCRSG ONCE AGN TUE AFTN IN ADVC OF AN
IMPULSE OVER THE SERN CONUS. ALTHO H8 TEMPS WL BE DROPPING...THE
CORE OF THE COOLER AIR WL HANG BACK W OF THE MTNS...ALONG W/ THE
CENTER OF THE RDG. THEREFORE...ITS NOT GOING TO GET ALL THAT COLD...
JUST COOLER THAN TDA. MIN-T FCST STILL A LTL ABV CLIMO...AND MAXT
TUE RIGHT AT CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY.

A 500 MB UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS WITH
THE AXIS ACROSS THE MID-WEST TUESDAY NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND NRLY WINDS WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR
OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT THAT WENT THROUGH THE EASTERN SEABOARD
MONDAY NIGHT WILL INTERACT WITH THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM
TUESDAY NIGHT. A 170+KT JET WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
REGION WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET ACROSS THE SE
STATES. THE COLD AIR AND WARM WATER INTERACTION AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WILL CAUSE CYCLOGENESIS. THE 500 MB TROUGH WILL TREK
EASTWARD INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE
EAST COAST.

GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN OFF
THE EAST COAST AS IT MOVES N-NE PARELLEL TO THE EAST COAST. THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW MOVES IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE ECMWF IS CLOSER
THAN THE GFS/NAM. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
THE LOW 30S ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND NEAR 40 NEAR THE WATERS. USED
SREF TEMPS AS IT HAS BEEN DOING WELL WITH TEMPS FOR THE
MID-ATLANTIC. MOISTURE WILL FEED INTO THE LOW WEDNESDAY AND
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WED MORNING.
MAX TEMPS FOR THE DAY WILL LIKELY BE REACHED WED MORNING AS PRECIP
MOVES QUICKLY INTO THE REGION. DYNAMICAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
DROP FURTHER INTO THE MID 30S...A CRITICAL ZONE. SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE BLUE
RIDGE...VA HIGHLANDS AND THE WESTERN SLOPES AS THEY WILL BE NEAR
FREEZING IF NOT BELOW. RAIN AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED FURTHER EAST AND
IN LOWER LYING AREAS. ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN PIEDMONT
INTO THE DC METRO AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND WED MORNING AS TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR 40.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED NORTH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS AROUND FREEZING WILL BE FURTHER NORTH WHILE
DEWPTS WILL BE AROUND FREEZING. NRLY WINDS WILL BE ADVECTING IN
THESE TEMPS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NOT TOO
EXCITED THAT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE FROM DYNAMICAL
COOLING AND NOT A BELOW FREEZING AIRMASS. WITH THAT BEING SAID
WENT WITH THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SUBURBS OF
BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON DC. THIS WILL LEAD TO ACCUMULATION ACROSS
THIS AREA. TAKING THICKNESSES INTO ACCOUNT FROM SREF MEAN...3-5
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE N-W SUBURBS OF BALTIMORE AND
WASHINGTON DC THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHER AMTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE AND PORTIONS OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. TEMPS ALONG
I-95 AND FURTHER EAST WILL BE WARMER AND THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL
LIKELY SETUP ACROSS THE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON METRO AREA RESULTING
IN A SHARP GRADIENT OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. LESS THAN AN INCH IS
EXPECTED FOR BALTIMORE/DC AT THIS TIME.

THIS COASTAL STORM WILL MOVE OUT QUICK AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL WRAP UP
WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR-IFR FLGT CONDS ATTM...DUE MAINLY TO CIGS. AM XPCTG A SLGT
IMPRVMNT THRU DAYBREAK...AND THEN CIGS WL BE LIFTING TO VFR BY NOON.
VFR SHUD PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PD.

WNDS WL BE THE OTHER ISSUE. SLY WINDS 15-25 KT ATTM AT THE SFC. LWX
VWP INDICATES 40 KT AT 2K FT. HV LLWS GROUP CONTG...ALTHO THE JET
AXIS SHUD BE PASSING NE OF TERMINALS SHORTLY /BTWN 09-10Z/. WINDS WL
STILL BE STRONG THRUT THE DAY...W/ MEAN LYR MIXING SUGGESTING A FEW
GUSTS SHUD REACH AOA 30KT ELY TAFTN. WNDS WL BECOME WLY TNGT..AND
DIMINISH TO ARND 10-15 KT.

VFR TUE. WLY WINDS CONTG 10-15 KT.

RAIN AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BECOME IFR BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS RAIN OR SNOW WHICH MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES
RESULT IN LOW VSBYS. N WINDS 10-15 KTS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
BECOMING NW 10-15 KTS WED NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THURSDAY
MORNING BUT ADDITIONAL -SN IS POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.
&&

.MARINE...
SCA ACRS ALL WATERS ATTM...W/ STRONG SCA UP THE BAY. RECENTLY SAW A
33KT GUST AT NAK...WHICH IS ALSO REFLECTED AT TPLM2. WL MONITOR THAT
CLOSELY. IF ITS A TREND AND NOT AN OUTLIER...WL EITHER NEED TO RAISE
GLW OR ADD A MWS. SUSPECT THE LATTER WL BE THE COURSE OF ACTION.

THERE WL BE ANOTHER PEAK IN THE MIXED PROFILE ELY TAFTN WHERE WNDS
MAY REACH 30-35 KT. HV CAPPED WNDS AT 30 KT ATTM DUE TO WATER TEMPS
IN THE 40S. IF WE NEED TO CHANGE COURSE OF ACTION THIS MRNG...WL
NEED TO ADJUST REST OF DAY AS WELL.

WNDS WL VEER WLY TNGT AS CDFNT CROSSES WATERS. FNT WL BE LOSING
SUPPORT...AND THUS WONT BE XTNDG ONTO CURRENT SCA...WHICH ENDS 01Z
MID-UPR PTMC AND 06Z ELSW.

A LIGHTER WLY FLOW WL CONT INTO TUE...10-15 KT.

N-NE WINDS 10-15KTS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COASTAL LOW
APPROACHES THE BAY REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGER AS THE LOW
GETS CLOSER AND SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY WEDNESDAY. THE
COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA AND WINDS WILL BECOME NWLY WED
NIGHT. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME AND
SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
IN SPITE OF A STRONG SLY FLOW...WATER LVLS HAVE REMAINED NEAR OR BLO
ASTRO NORMS. THEREFORE...NO ISSUES EXPECTED TODAY OR TOMORROW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY FOR DCA/IAD/BWI WOULD ALL COME
VERY NEAR CURRENT RECORDS. HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGHS AND THE YEAR
THEY OCCURRED...

DCA...74 IN 1958.
IAD...74 IN 1979.
BWI...73 IN 1979.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...HAS
AVIATION...HTS/HAS
MARINE...HTS/HAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS
CLIMATE...HTS








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240902
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
402 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RA IS EXITING QUICKLY TO THE ENE ATTM. SFC WARM FRONT CONTS TO
PULL N OF THE FA THIS MRNG. A BREEZY/WINDY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM
DAY IS EXPECTED TDA AS CLOUDS ARE SLO TO SCOUR OUT TO VRB
CLDS/PSNY BY MIDDAY/AFTN HRS. HANGING ONTO TO SLGT CHC/LO CHC POPS
ACRS FAR SE VA/NE NC THROUGH THIS AFTN AS MOISTURE RIBBON LINGERS
UNDER SWLY FLO ALOFT. SSW SFC WNDS TO GUST TO 30-35 MPH. HI TEMPS
RANGING THROUGH THE 70S (MAYBE 80F SRN/SE VA-INTERIOR NE
NC?)...SEE RECORD HI TEMPS IN CLIMATE SECTION BLO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK CDFNT APPROACHES FM THE W THIS EVE...CROSSES THE FA OVRNGT.
WK SFC HI PRES FOLLOWS THAT CDFNT FOR TUE. WILL HAVE CLDS AND LO
POPS NR THE CST IN NE NC (TNGT). THE FNT STALLS OFFSHORE...AND
LO PRES BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE SE CONUS CST LATER TUE. HIGHS
TUE SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER
MORNING LOWS FROM THE M40S NW...TO L/M50S E.

00Z/24Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEMONSTRATE AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT
TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEAR THE SOUTHEAST CONUS LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT. THIS LOW
THEN TRACKS NNE ALONG THE COAST WED BRINGING RA TO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION ON A BUSY TRAVEL DAY. THE 00Z/24 NAM HAS NOW
JOINED THE OTHER MDLS...THOUGH ITS SFC LO TRACK IS E OF THE
GFS/ECMWF. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST RA MIXING W/ AND/OR CHANGING
TO WET SN WED AFTN ACRS INLAND AREAS (W OF I 95) - BEFORE PCPN
ENDS WED NGT. CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO EXACT FCST SN ACCUMS RMNS
LOW AT THIS TIME...AS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO COOL THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FULLY BY DYNAMICAL COOLING AS ANY CAA IS MINIMAL. GIVEN
TRACK OF SFC AND CLIMO...LGT SN ACCUMS IN ORDER OF A COUPLE OF
INCHES FAVORS NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES...THOUGH A COATING OF SN TO
PORTIONS OF THE I 95 CORRIDOR NOT RULED OUT (WED EVE). TWO OTHER
CONCERNS...MDT/HVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WNDS (ESP E OF I 95).

CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPS TO THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S
INLAND...TO THE MID/UPPER 40S OVER SE PORTIONS...AND THESE WILL
LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z/24 GFS/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PD.
STRONG LO PRES WILL BE JUST OFF THE DE CST AT 00Z THU...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NNE AND JUST OFF THE MAINE CST
BY 12Z THU. PCPN WILL BE TAPERING OFF AND END FM SW TO NE WED EVE
INTO EARLY THU MORNG (AS EITHER SNOW SNOWERS OR A MIX OF RA/SN).

A MAINLY DRY FRONT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO THU NGT. HI
PRES WILL BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI INTO SAT...THEN SLIDES
OFF THE MID ATLC/SE CST FOR SAT AFTN THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S THU...IN THE 40S FRI...IN THE MID 40S TO
LWR 50S SAT...AND IN THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S SUN. MIN TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S THU MORNG...IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S
FRI AND SAT MORNGS...AND IN THE 30S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THIS IS PUSHING
ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE INTO THE MID ATL REGION WHICH WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD THRU THE OVERNIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP THE COAST AND
SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 6Z AND 9Z. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. ALSO
EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SE TO AROUND 10 TO 20 KT
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND START TO
INCREASE IN SPEED. CEILINGS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER PASSAGE OF
THE WARM FRONT AND VFR CONDS ARE LIKELY BY LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS COMES ON WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE ALONG THE COAST SPREADING RAIN AND LOW
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE INHERITED HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AS
WINDS OVR CSTL WTRS CONTINUE TO GUST NEAR 35 KT (GALE WARNING) WHILE
OVR THE BAY THEY ARE MORE IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE (SCA). THE GALE WILL
END LATE THIS MORNG...AND WILL BE REPLACED BY A SCA THRU TNGT WITH
SEAS AOA 5 FT. THE SCA OVR THE BAY ENDS LATE THIS AFTN AS STRONG SLY
FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT. THE FRNT CROSSES
THE WTRS LATE TNGT INTO TUE MORNG...WITH IMPROVING MARINE CONDS THEN
INTO TUE AFTN WITH WEAK HI PRES OVR THE AREA. STRONG NE TO NW FLOW
IS THEN EXPECTED TUE NGT THRU WED NGT...AS LO PRES TRACKS NEWRD JUST
OFF THE E CST. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG SCA CONDS EVERYWHERE
AND PSBL GALES OVR THE CSTL WTRS WITH THIS SYSTM.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED TODAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY (11/24).

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...ALB/TMG/JEF
AVIATION...MAS/JEF
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...AKQ

















000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240902
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
402 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RA IS EXITING QUICKLY TO THE ENE ATTM. SFC WARM FRONT CONTS TO
PULL N OF THE FA THIS MRNG. A BREEZY/WINDY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM
DAY IS EXPECTED TDA AS CLOUDS ARE SLO TO SCOUR OUT TO VRB
CLDS/PSNY BY MIDDAY/AFTN HRS. HANGING ONTO TO SLGT CHC/LO CHC POPS
ACRS FAR SE VA/NE NC THROUGH THIS AFTN AS MOISTURE RIBBON LINGERS
UNDER SWLY FLO ALOFT. SSW SFC WNDS TO GUST TO 30-35 MPH. HI TEMPS
RANGING THROUGH THE 70S (MAYBE 80F SRN/SE VA-INTERIOR NE
NC?)...SEE RECORD HI TEMPS IN CLIMATE SECTION BLO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK CDFNT APPROACHES FM THE W THIS EVE...CROSSES THE FA OVRNGT.
WK SFC HI PRES FOLLOWS THAT CDFNT FOR TUE. WILL HAVE CLDS AND LO
POPS NR THE CST IN NE NC (TNGT). THE FNT STALLS OFFSHORE...AND
LO PRES BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE SE CONUS CST LATER TUE. HIGHS
TUE SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER
MORNING LOWS FROM THE M40S NW...TO L/M50S E.

00Z/24Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEMONSTRATE AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT
TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEAR THE SOUTHEAST CONUS LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT. THIS LOW
THEN TRACKS NNE ALONG THE COAST WED BRINGING RA TO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION ON A BUSY TRAVEL DAY. THE 00Z/24 NAM HAS NOW
JOINED THE OTHER MDLS...THOUGH ITS SFC LO TRACK IS E OF THE
GFS/ECMWF. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST RA MIXING W/ AND/OR CHANGING
TO WET SN WED AFTN ACRS INLAND AREAS (W OF I 95) - BEFORE PCPN
ENDS WED NGT. CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO EXACT FCST SN ACCUMS RMNS
LOW AT THIS TIME...AS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO COOL THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FULLY BY DYNAMICAL COOLING AS ANY CAA IS MINIMAL. GIVEN
TRACK OF SFC AND CLIMO...LGT SN ACCUMS IN ORDER OF A COUPLE OF
INCHES FAVORS NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES...THOUGH A COATING OF SN TO
PORTIONS OF THE I 95 CORRIDOR NOT RULED OUT (WED EVE). TWO OTHER
CONCERNS...MDT/HVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WNDS (ESP E OF I 95).

CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPS TO THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S
INLAND...TO THE MID/UPPER 40S OVER SE PORTIONS...AND THESE WILL
LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z/24 GFS/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PD.
STRONG LO PRES WILL BE JUST OFF THE DE CST AT 00Z THU...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NNE AND JUST OFF THE MAINE CST
BY 12Z THU. PCPN WILL BE TAPERING OFF AND END FM SW TO NE WED EVE
INTO EARLY THU MORNG (AS EITHER SNOW SNOWERS OR A MIX OF RA/SN).

A MAINLY DRY FRONT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO THU NGT. HI
PRES WILL BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI INTO SAT...THEN SLIDES
OFF THE MID ATLC/SE CST FOR SAT AFTN THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S THU...IN THE 40S FRI...IN THE MID 40S TO
LWR 50S SAT...AND IN THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S SUN. MIN TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S THU MORNG...IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S
FRI AND SAT MORNGS...AND IN THE 30S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THIS IS PUSHING
ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE INTO THE MID ATL REGION WHICH WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD THRU THE OVERNIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP THE COAST AND
SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 6Z AND 9Z. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. ALSO
EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SE TO AROUND 10 TO 20 KT
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND START TO
INCREASE IN SPEED. CEILINGS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER PASSAGE OF
THE WARM FRONT AND VFR CONDS ARE LIKELY BY LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS COMES ON WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE ALONG THE COAST SPREADING RAIN AND LOW
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE INHERITED HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AS
WINDS OVR CSTL WTRS CONTINUE TO GUST NEAR 35 KT (GALE WARNING) WHILE
OVR THE BAY THEY ARE MORE IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE (SCA). THE GALE WILL
END LATE THIS MORNG...AND WILL BE REPLACED BY A SCA THRU TNGT WITH
SEAS AOA 5 FT. THE SCA OVR THE BAY ENDS LATE THIS AFTN AS STRONG SLY
FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT. THE FRNT CROSSES
THE WTRS LATE TNGT INTO TUE MORNG...WITH IMPROVING MARINE CONDS THEN
INTO TUE AFTN WITH WEAK HI PRES OVR THE AREA. STRONG NE TO NW FLOW
IS THEN EXPECTED TUE NGT THRU WED NGT...AS LO PRES TRACKS NEWRD JUST
OFF THE E CST. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG SCA CONDS EVERYWHERE
AND PSBL GALES OVR THE CSTL WTRS WITH THIS SYSTM.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED TODAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY (11/24).

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...ALB/TMG/JEF
AVIATION...MAS/JEF
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...AKQ

















000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240902
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
402 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RA IS EXITING QUICKLY TO THE ENE ATTM. SFC WARM FRONT CONTS TO
PULL N OF THE FA THIS MRNG. A BREEZY/WINDY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM
DAY IS EXPECTED TDA AS CLOUDS ARE SLO TO SCOUR OUT TO VRB
CLDS/PSNY BY MIDDAY/AFTN HRS. HANGING ONTO TO SLGT CHC/LO CHC POPS
ACRS FAR SE VA/NE NC THROUGH THIS AFTN AS MOISTURE RIBBON LINGERS
UNDER SWLY FLO ALOFT. SSW SFC WNDS TO GUST TO 30-35 MPH. HI TEMPS
RANGING THROUGH THE 70S (MAYBE 80F SRN/SE VA-INTERIOR NE
NC?)...SEE RECORD HI TEMPS IN CLIMATE SECTION BLO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK CDFNT APPROACHES FM THE W THIS EVE...CROSSES THE FA OVRNGT.
WK SFC HI PRES FOLLOWS THAT CDFNT FOR TUE. WILL HAVE CLDS AND LO
POPS NR THE CST IN NE NC (TNGT). THE FNT STALLS OFFSHORE...AND
LO PRES BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE SE CONUS CST LATER TUE. HIGHS
TUE SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER
MORNING LOWS FROM THE M40S NW...TO L/M50S E.

00Z/24Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEMONSTRATE AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT
TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEAR THE SOUTHEAST CONUS LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT. THIS LOW
THEN TRACKS NNE ALONG THE COAST WED BRINGING RA TO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION ON A BUSY TRAVEL DAY. THE 00Z/24 NAM HAS NOW
JOINED THE OTHER MDLS...THOUGH ITS SFC LO TRACK IS E OF THE
GFS/ECMWF. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST RA MIXING W/ AND/OR CHANGING
TO WET SN WED AFTN ACRS INLAND AREAS (W OF I 95) - BEFORE PCPN
ENDS WED NGT. CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO EXACT FCST SN ACCUMS RMNS
LOW AT THIS TIME...AS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO COOL THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FULLY BY DYNAMICAL COOLING AS ANY CAA IS MINIMAL. GIVEN
TRACK OF SFC AND CLIMO...LGT SN ACCUMS IN ORDER OF A COUPLE OF
INCHES FAVORS NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES...THOUGH A COATING OF SN TO
PORTIONS OF THE I 95 CORRIDOR NOT RULED OUT (WED EVE). TWO OTHER
CONCERNS...MDT/HVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WNDS (ESP E OF I 95).

CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPS TO THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S
INLAND...TO THE MID/UPPER 40S OVER SE PORTIONS...AND THESE WILL
LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z/24 GFS/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PD.
STRONG LO PRES WILL BE JUST OFF THE DE CST AT 00Z THU...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NNE AND JUST OFF THE MAINE CST
BY 12Z THU. PCPN WILL BE TAPERING OFF AND END FM SW TO NE WED EVE
INTO EARLY THU MORNG (AS EITHER SNOW SNOWERS OR A MIX OF RA/SN).

A MAINLY DRY FRONT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO THU NGT. HI
PRES WILL BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI INTO SAT...THEN SLIDES
OFF THE MID ATLC/SE CST FOR SAT AFTN THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S THU...IN THE 40S FRI...IN THE MID 40S TO
LWR 50S SAT...AND IN THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S SUN. MIN TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S THU MORNG...IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S
FRI AND SAT MORNGS...AND IN THE 30S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THIS IS PUSHING
ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE INTO THE MID ATL REGION WHICH WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD THRU THE OVERNIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP THE COAST AND
SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 6Z AND 9Z. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. ALSO
EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SE TO AROUND 10 TO 20 KT
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND START TO
INCREASE IN SPEED. CEILINGS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER PASSAGE OF
THE WARM FRONT AND VFR CONDS ARE LIKELY BY LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS COMES ON WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE ALONG THE COAST SPREADING RAIN AND LOW
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE INHERITED HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AS
WINDS OVR CSTL WTRS CONTINUE TO GUST NEAR 35 KT (GALE WARNING) WHILE
OVR THE BAY THEY ARE MORE IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE (SCA). THE GALE WILL
END LATE THIS MORNG...AND WILL BE REPLACED BY A SCA THRU TNGT WITH
SEAS AOA 5 FT. THE SCA OVR THE BAY ENDS LATE THIS AFTN AS STRONG SLY
FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT. THE FRNT CROSSES
THE WTRS LATE TNGT INTO TUE MORNG...WITH IMPROVING MARINE CONDS THEN
INTO TUE AFTN WITH WEAK HI PRES OVR THE AREA. STRONG NE TO NW FLOW
IS THEN EXPECTED TUE NGT THRU WED NGT...AS LO PRES TRACKS NEWRD JUST
OFF THE E CST. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG SCA CONDS EVERYWHERE
AND PSBL GALES OVR THE CSTL WTRS WITH THIS SYSTM.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED TODAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY (11/24).

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...ALB/TMG/JEF
AVIATION...MAS/JEF
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...AKQ

















000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240902
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
402 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RA IS EXITING QUICKLY TO THE ENE ATTM. SFC WARM FRONT CONTS TO
PULL N OF THE FA THIS MRNG. A BREEZY/WINDY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM
DAY IS EXPECTED TDA AS CLOUDS ARE SLO TO SCOUR OUT TO VRB
CLDS/PSNY BY MIDDAY/AFTN HRS. HANGING ONTO TO SLGT CHC/LO CHC POPS
ACRS FAR SE VA/NE NC THROUGH THIS AFTN AS MOISTURE RIBBON LINGERS
UNDER SWLY FLO ALOFT. SSW SFC WNDS TO GUST TO 30-35 MPH. HI TEMPS
RANGING THROUGH THE 70S (MAYBE 80F SRN/SE VA-INTERIOR NE
NC?)...SEE RECORD HI TEMPS IN CLIMATE SECTION BLO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK CDFNT APPROACHES FM THE W THIS EVE...CROSSES THE FA OVRNGT.
WK SFC HI PRES FOLLOWS THAT CDFNT FOR TUE. WILL HAVE CLDS AND LO
POPS NR THE CST IN NE NC (TNGT). THE FNT STALLS OFFSHORE...AND
LO PRES BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE SE CONUS CST LATER TUE. HIGHS
TUE SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER
MORNING LOWS FROM THE M40S NW...TO L/M50S E.

00Z/24Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEMONSTRATE AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT
TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEAR THE SOUTHEAST CONUS LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT. THIS LOW
THEN TRACKS NNE ALONG THE COAST WED BRINGING RA TO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION ON A BUSY TRAVEL DAY. THE 00Z/24 NAM HAS NOW
JOINED THE OTHER MDLS...THOUGH ITS SFC LO TRACK IS E OF THE
GFS/ECMWF. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST RA MIXING W/ AND/OR CHANGING
TO WET SN WED AFTN ACRS INLAND AREAS (W OF I 95) - BEFORE PCPN
ENDS WED NGT. CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO EXACT FCST SN ACCUMS RMNS
LOW AT THIS TIME...AS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO COOL THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FULLY BY DYNAMICAL COOLING AS ANY CAA IS MINIMAL. GIVEN
TRACK OF SFC AND CLIMO...LGT SN ACCUMS IN ORDER OF A COUPLE OF
INCHES FAVORS NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES...THOUGH A COATING OF SN TO
PORTIONS OF THE I 95 CORRIDOR NOT RULED OUT (WED EVE). TWO OTHER
CONCERNS...MDT/HVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WNDS (ESP E OF I 95).

CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPS TO THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S
INLAND...TO THE MID/UPPER 40S OVER SE PORTIONS...AND THESE WILL
LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z/24 GFS/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PD.
STRONG LO PRES WILL BE JUST OFF THE DE CST AT 00Z THU...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NNE AND JUST OFF THE MAINE CST
BY 12Z THU. PCPN WILL BE TAPERING OFF AND END FM SW TO NE WED EVE
INTO EARLY THU MORNG (AS EITHER SNOW SNOWERS OR A MIX OF RA/SN).

A MAINLY DRY FRONT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO THU NGT. HI
PRES WILL BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI INTO SAT...THEN SLIDES
OFF THE MID ATLC/SE CST FOR SAT AFTN THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S THU...IN THE 40S FRI...IN THE MID 40S TO
LWR 50S SAT...AND IN THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S SUN. MIN TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S THU MORNG...IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S
FRI AND SAT MORNGS...AND IN THE 30S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THIS IS PUSHING
ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE INTO THE MID ATL REGION WHICH WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD THRU THE OVERNIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP THE COAST AND
SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 6Z AND 9Z. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. ALSO
EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SE TO AROUND 10 TO 20 KT
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND START TO
INCREASE IN SPEED. CEILINGS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER PASSAGE OF
THE WARM FRONT AND VFR CONDS ARE LIKELY BY LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS COMES ON WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE ALONG THE COAST SPREADING RAIN AND LOW
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE INHERITED HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AS
WINDS OVR CSTL WTRS CONTINUE TO GUST NEAR 35 KT (GALE WARNING) WHILE
OVR THE BAY THEY ARE MORE IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE (SCA). THE GALE WILL
END LATE THIS MORNG...AND WILL BE REPLACED BY A SCA THRU TNGT WITH
SEAS AOA 5 FT. THE SCA OVR THE BAY ENDS LATE THIS AFTN AS STRONG SLY
FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT. THE FRNT CROSSES
THE WTRS LATE TNGT INTO TUE MORNG...WITH IMPROVING MARINE CONDS THEN
INTO TUE AFTN WITH WEAK HI PRES OVR THE AREA. STRONG NE TO NW FLOW
IS THEN EXPECTED TUE NGT THRU WED NGT...AS LO PRES TRACKS NEWRD JUST
OFF THE E CST. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG SCA CONDS EVERYWHERE
AND PSBL GALES OVR THE CSTL WTRS WITH THIS SYSTM.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED TODAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY (11/24).

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...ALB/TMG/JEF
AVIATION...MAS/JEF
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...AKQ

















000
FXUS61 KLWX 240855
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
355 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFYING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH
ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC WMFNT HAS JUMPED N OF CWFA. LTST TEMPS E OF THE BLURDG ARND 60F
AT 08Z. I-81 CRRDR AND FOOTHILLS LAGGING A BIT BHD...BUT A GUSTY SLY
FLOW RESIDES AREAWIDE...SO THE WARM PUSH SHUD ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE
AREA BY DAYBREAK. THE FNT WAS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PCPN. THUS...THE
LGT-MDT STRATIFORM RA ALREADY ACRS THE DELMARVA AND POINTS N OF
THERE. HV LGT RESIDUAL SHRA...SPCLY BTWN I-95 AND THE BLURDG DUE TO
A SLGT UPSLP COMPONENT. HWVR...THE FORCING FOR THAT WL WANE BY
SUNRISE AS WELL.

THE CWFA WL BE W/IN STRONG SLY FLOW TDA. THE CDFNT WL DROP INTO AREA
AFTR 18Z...BUT IT REMAINS MOISTURE STARVED W/ DYNAMIC FORCING ACRS
OF W OF THE OHVLY. THUS...BELIEVE IT WL COME THRU DRY...AND HV
PULLED POPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. RH PROFILES DO INDICATE HIGH
ENUF VALUES IN THE LLVLS FOR CONTD CLDCVR TIL MIDDAY. HWVR...MEAN
LYR RH THINS OUT DURING THE AFTN...AND XPCT INCRSG SUNSHN.

CONSIDERING THE WARM START AND H8 TEMPS RISING TO 12-14C...HV RAISED
MAXT SVRL DEGF. WL HV HIGHS AOA 70F AREAWIDE...AND A CRRDR IN THE
MID 70S BALT-DC-EZF.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
RDGG WL BLD ACRS THE CWFA FM THE W TNGT-TUE...FOR A PD OF DRY WX.
HWVR...UPR LVL CLDS WL BE INCRSG ONCE AGN TUE AFTN IN ADVC OF AN
IMPULSE OVER THE SERN CONUS. ALTHO H8 TEMPS WL BE DROPPING...THE
CORE OF THE COOLER AIR WL HANG BACK W OF THE MTNS...ALONG W/ THE
CENTER OF THE RDG. THEREFORE...ITS NOT GOING TO GET ALL THAT COLD...
JUST COOLER THAN TDA. MIN-T FCST STILL A LTL ABV CLIMO...AND MAXT
TUE RIGHT AT CLIMO.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY.

A 500 MB UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS WITH
THE AXIS ACROSS THE MID-WEST TUESDAY NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND NRLY WINDS WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR
OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT THAT WENT THROUGH THE EASTERN SEABOARD
MONDAY NIGHT WILL INTERACT WITH THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM
TUESDAY NIGHT. A 170+KT JET WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
REGION WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET ACROSS THE SE
STATES. THE COLD AIR AND WARM WATER INTERACTION AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WILL CAUSE CYCLOGENESIS. THE 500 MB TROUGH WILL TREK
EASTWARD INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE
EAST COAST.

GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN OFF
THE EAST COAST AS IT MOVES N-NE PARELLEL TO THE EAST COAST. THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW MOVES IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE ECMWF IS CLOSER
THAN THE GFS/NAM. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
THE LOW 30S ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND NEAR 40 NEAR THE WATERS. USED
SREF TEMPS AS IT HAS BEEN DOING WELL WITH TEMPS FOR THE
MID-ATLANTIC. MOISTURE WILL FEED INTO THE LOW WEDNESDAY AND
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WED MORNING.
MAX TEMPS FOR THE DAY WILL LIKELY BE REACHED WED MORNING AS PRECIP
MOVES QUICKLY INTO THE REGION. DYNAMICAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
DROP FURTHER INTO THE MID 30S...A CRITICAL ZONE. SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE BLUE
RIDGE...VA HIGHLANDS AND THE WESTERN SLOPES AS THEY WILL BE NEAR
FREEZING IF NOT BELOW. RAIN AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED FURTHER EAST AND
IN LOWER LYING AREAS. ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN PIEDMONT
INTO THE DC METRO AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND WED MORNING AS TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR 40.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED NORTH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS AROUND FREEZING WILL BE FURTHER NORTH WHILE
DEWPTS WILL BE AROUND FREEZING. NRLY WINDS WILL BE ADVECTING IN
THESE TEMPS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NOT TOO
EXCITED THAT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE FROM DYNAMICAL
COOLING AND NOT A BELOW FREEZING AIRMASS. WITH THAT BEING SAID
WENT WITH THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SUBURBS OF
BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON DC. THIS WILL LEAD TO ACCUMULATION ACROSS
THIS AREA. TAKING THICKNESSES INTO ACCOUNT FROM SREF MEAN...3-5
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE N-W SUBURBS OF BALTIMORE AND
WASHINGTON DC THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHER AMTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE AND PORTIONS OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. TEMPS ALONG
I-95 AND FURTHER EAST WILL BE WARMER AND THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL
LIKELY SETUP ACROSS THE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON METRO AREA RESULTING
IN A SHARP GRADIENT OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. LESS THAN AN INCH IS
EXPECTED FOR BALTIMORE/DC AT THIS TIME.

THIS COASTAL STORM WILL MOVE OUT QUICK AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL WRAP UP
WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR-IFR FLGT CONDS ATTM...DUE MAINLY TO CIGS. AM XPCTG A SLGT
IMPRVMNT THRU DAYBREAK...AND THEN CIGS WL BE LIFTING TO VFR BY NOON.
VFR SHUD PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PD.

WNDS WL BE THE OTHER ISSUE. SLY WINDS 15-25 KT ATTM AT THE SFC. LWX
VWP INDICATES 40 KT AT 2K FT. HV LLWS GROUP CONTG...ALTHO THE JET
AXIS SHUD BE PASSING NE OF TERMINALS SHORTLY /BTWN 09-10Z/. WINDS WL
STILL BE STRONG THRUT THE DAY...W/ MEAN LYR MIXING SUGGESTING A FEW
GUSTS SHUD REACH AOA 30KT ELY TAFTN. WNDS WL BECOME WLY TNGT..AND
DIMINISH TO ARND 10-15 KT.

VFR TUE. WLY WINDS CONTG 10-15 KT.


&&

.MARINE...
SCA ACRS ALL WATERS ATTM...W/ STRONG SCA UP THE BAY. RECENTLY SAW A
33KT GUST AT NAK...WHICH IS ALSO REFLECTED AT TPLM2. WL MONITOR THAT
CLOSELY. IF ITS A TREND AND NOT AN OUTLIER...WL EITHER NEED TO RAISE
GLW OR ADD A MWS. SUSPECT THE LATTER WL BE THE COURSE OF ACTION.

THERE WL BE ANOTHER PEAK IN THE MIXED PROFILE ELY TAFTN WHERE WNDS
MAY REACH 30-35 KT. HV CAPPED WNDS AT 30 KT ATTM DUE TO WATER TEMPS
IN THE 40S. IF WE NEED TO CHANGE COURSE OF ACTION THIS MRNG...WL
NEED TO ADJUST REST OF DAY AS WELL.

WNDS WL VEER WLY TNGT AS CDFNT CROSSES WATERS. FNT WL BE LOSING
SUPPORT...AND THUS WONT BE XTNDG ONTO CURRENT SCA...WHICH ENDS 01Z
MID-UPR PTMC AND 06Z ELSW.

A LIGHTER WLY FLOW WL CONT INTO TUE...10-15 KT.


&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
IN SPITE OF A STRONG SLY FLOW...WATER LVLS HAVE REMAINED NEAR OR BLO
ASTRO NORMS. THEREFORE...NO ISSUES EXPECTED TODAY OR TOMORROW.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...HAS
AVIATION...HTS/HAS
MARINE...HTS/HAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 240855
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
355 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFYING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH
ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC WMFNT HAS JUMPED N OF CWFA. LTST TEMPS E OF THE BLURDG ARND 60F
AT 08Z. I-81 CRRDR AND FOOTHILLS LAGGING A BIT BHD...BUT A GUSTY SLY
FLOW RESIDES AREAWIDE...SO THE WARM PUSH SHUD ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE
AREA BY DAYBREAK. THE FNT WAS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PCPN. THUS...THE
LGT-MDT STRATIFORM RA ALREADY ACRS THE DELMARVA AND POINTS N OF
THERE. HV LGT RESIDUAL SHRA...SPCLY BTWN I-95 AND THE BLURDG DUE TO
A SLGT UPSLP COMPONENT. HWVR...THE FORCING FOR THAT WL WANE BY
SUNRISE AS WELL.

THE CWFA WL BE W/IN STRONG SLY FLOW TDA. THE CDFNT WL DROP INTO AREA
AFTR 18Z...BUT IT REMAINS MOISTURE STARVED W/ DYNAMIC FORCING ACRS
OF W OF THE OHVLY. THUS...BELIEVE IT WL COME THRU DRY...AND HV
PULLED POPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. RH PROFILES DO INDICATE HIGH
ENUF VALUES IN THE LLVLS FOR CONTD CLDCVR TIL MIDDAY. HWVR...MEAN
LYR RH THINS OUT DURING THE AFTN...AND XPCT INCRSG SUNSHN.

CONSIDERING THE WARM START AND H8 TEMPS RISING TO 12-14C...HV RAISED
MAXT SVRL DEGF. WL HV HIGHS AOA 70F AREAWIDE...AND A CRRDR IN THE
MID 70S BALT-DC-EZF.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
RDGG WL BLD ACRS THE CWFA FM THE W TNGT-TUE...FOR A PD OF DRY WX.
HWVR...UPR LVL CLDS WL BE INCRSG ONCE AGN TUE AFTN IN ADVC OF AN
IMPULSE OVER THE SERN CONUS. ALTHO H8 TEMPS WL BE DROPPING...THE
CORE OF THE COOLER AIR WL HANG BACK W OF THE MTNS...ALONG W/ THE
CENTER OF THE RDG. THEREFORE...ITS NOT GOING TO GET ALL THAT COLD...
JUST COOLER THAN TDA. MIN-T FCST STILL A LTL ABV CLIMO...AND MAXT
TUE RIGHT AT CLIMO.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY.

A 500 MB UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS WITH
THE AXIS ACROSS THE MID-WEST TUESDAY NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND NRLY WINDS WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR
OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT THAT WENT THROUGH THE EASTERN SEABOARD
MONDAY NIGHT WILL INTERACT WITH THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM
TUESDAY NIGHT. A 170+KT JET WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
REGION WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET ACROSS THE SE
STATES. THE COLD AIR AND WARM WATER INTERACTION AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WILL CAUSE CYCLOGENESIS. THE 500 MB TROUGH WILL TREK
EASTWARD INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE
EAST COAST.

GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN OFF
THE EAST COAST AS IT MOVES N-NE PARELLEL TO THE EAST COAST. THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW MOVES IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE ECMWF IS CLOSER
THAN THE GFS/NAM. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
THE LOW 30S ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND NEAR 40 NEAR THE WATERS. USED
SREF TEMPS AS IT HAS BEEN DOING WELL WITH TEMPS FOR THE
MID-ATLANTIC. MOISTURE WILL FEED INTO THE LOW WEDNESDAY AND
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WED MORNING.
MAX TEMPS FOR THE DAY WILL LIKELY BE REACHED WED MORNING AS PRECIP
MOVES QUICKLY INTO THE REGION. DYNAMICAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
DROP FURTHER INTO THE MID 30S...A CRITICAL ZONE. SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE BLUE
RIDGE...VA HIGHLANDS AND THE WESTERN SLOPES AS THEY WILL BE NEAR
FREEZING IF NOT BELOW. RAIN AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED FURTHER EAST AND
IN LOWER LYING AREAS. ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN PIEDMONT
INTO THE DC METRO AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND WED MORNING AS TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR 40.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED NORTH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS AROUND FREEZING WILL BE FURTHER NORTH WHILE
DEWPTS WILL BE AROUND FREEZING. NRLY WINDS WILL BE ADVECTING IN
THESE TEMPS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NOT TOO
EXCITED THAT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE FROM DYNAMICAL
COOLING AND NOT A BELOW FREEZING AIRMASS. WITH THAT BEING SAID
WENT WITH THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SUBURBS OF
BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON DC. THIS WILL LEAD TO ACCUMULATION ACROSS
THIS AREA. TAKING THICKNESSES INTO ACCOUNT FROM SREF MEAN...3-5
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE N-W SUBURBS OF BALTIMORE AND
WASHINGTON DC THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHER AMTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE AND PORTIONS OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. TEMPS ALONG
I-95 AND FURTHER EAST WILL BE WARMER AND THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL
LIKELY SETUP ACROSS THE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON METRO AREA RESULTING
IN A SHARP GRADIENT OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. LESS THAN AN INCH IS
EXPECTED FOR BALTIMORE/DC AT THIS TIME.

THIS COASTAL STORM WILL MOVE OUT QUICK AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL WRAP UP
WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR-IFR FLGT CONDS ATTM...DUE MAINLY TO CIGS. AM XPCTG A SLGT
IMPRVMNT THRU DAYBREAK...AND THEN CIGS WL BE LIFTING TO VFR BY NOON.
VFR SHUD PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PD.

WNDS WL BE THE OTHER ISSUE. SLY WINDS 15-25 KT ATTM AT THE SFC. LWX
VWP INDICATES 40 KT AT 2K FT. HV LLWS GROUP CONTG...ALTHO THE JET
AXIS SHUD BE PASSING NE OF TERMINALS SHORTLY /BTWN 09-10Z/. WINDS WL
STILL BE STRONG THRUT THE DAY...W/ MEAN LYR MIXING SUGGESTING A FEW
GUSTS SHUD REACH AOA 30KT ELY TAFTN. WNDS WL BECOME WLY TNGT..AND
DIMINISH TO ARND 10-15 KT.

VFR TUE. WLY WINDS CONTG 10-15 KT.


&&

.MARINE...
SCA ACRS ALL WATERS ATTM...W/ STRONG SCA UP THE BAY. RECENTLY SAW A
33KT GUST AT NAK...WHICH IS ALSO REFLECTED AT TPLM2. WL MONITOR THAT
CLOSELY. IF ITS A TREND AND NOT AN OUTLIER...WL EITHER NEED TO RAISE
GLW OR ADD A MWS. SUSPECT THE LATTER WL BE THE COURSE OF ACTION.

THERE WL BE ANOTHER PEAK IN THE MIXED PROFILE ELY TAFTN WHERE WNDS
MAY REACH 30-35 KT. HV CAPPED WNDS AT 30 KT ATTM DUE TO WATER TEMPS
IN THE 40S. IF WE NEED TO CHANGE COURSE OF ACTION THIS MRNG...WL
NEED TO ADJUST REST OF DAY AS WELL.

WNDS WL VEER WLY TNGT AS CDFNT CROSSES WATERS. FNT WL BE LOSING
SUPPORT...AND THUS WONT BE XTNDG ONTO CURRENT SCA...WHICH ENDS 01Z
MID-UPR PTMC AND 06Z ELSW.

A LIGHTER WLY FLOW WL CONT INTO TUE...10-15 KT.


&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
IN SPITE OF A STRONG SLY FLOW...WATER LVLS HAVE REMAINED NEAR OR BLO
ASTRO NORMS. THEREFORE...NO ISSUES EXPECTED TODAY OR TOMORROW.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...HAS
AVIATION...HTS/HAS
MARINE...HTS/HAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 240855
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
355 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFYING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH
ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC WMFNT HAS JUMPED N OF CWFA. LTST TEMPS E OF THE BLURDG ARND 60F
AT 08Z. I-81 CRRDR AND FOOTHILLS LAGGING A BIT BHD...BUT A GUSTY SLY
FLOW RESIDES AREAWIDE...SO THE WARM PUSH SHUD ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE
AREA BY DAYBREAK. THE FNT WAS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PCPN. THUS...THE
LGT-MDT STRATIFORM RA ALREADY ACRS THE DELMARVA AND POINTS N OF
THERE. HV LGT RESIDUAL SHRA...SPCLY BTWN I-95 AND THE BLURDG DUE TO
A SLGT UPSLP COMPONENT. HWVR...THE FORCING FOR THAT WL WANE BY
SUNRISE AS WELL.

THE CWFA WL BE W/IN STRONG SLY FLOW TDA. THE CDFNT WL DROP INTO AREA
AFTR 18Z...BUT IT REMAINS MOISTURE STARVED W/ DYNAMIC FORCING ACRS
OF W OF THE OHVLY. THUS...BELIEVE IT WL COME THRU DRY...AND HV
PULLED POPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. RH PROFILES DO INDICATE HIGH
ENUF VALUES IN THE LLVLS FOR CONTD CLDCVR TIL MIDDAY. HWVR...MEAN
LYR RH THINS OUT DURING THE AFTN...AND XPCT INCRSG SUNSHN.

CONSIDERING THE WARM START AND H8 TEMPS RISING TO 12-14C...HV RAISED
MAXT SVRL DEGF. WL HV HIGHS AOA 70F AREAWIDE...AND A CRRDR IN THE
MID 70S BALT-DC-EZF.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
RDGG WL BLD ACRS THE CWFA FM THE W TNGT-TUE...FOR A PD OF DRY WX.
HWVR...UPR LVL CLDS WL BE INCRSG ONCE AGN TUE AFTN IN ADVC OF AN
IMPULSE OVER THE SERN CONUS. ALTHO H8 TEMPS WL BE DROPPING...THE
CORE OF THE COOLER AIR WL HANG BACK W OF THE MTNS...ALONG W/ THE
CENTER OF THE RDG. THEREFORE...ITS NOT GOING TO GET ALL THAT COLD...
JUST COOLER THAN TDA. MIN-T FCST STILL A LTL ABV CLIMO...AND MAXT
TUE RIGHT AT CLIMO.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY.

A 500 MB UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS WITH
THE AXIS ACROSS THE MID-WEST TUESDAY NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND NRLY WINDS WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR
OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT THAT WENT THROUGH THE EASTERN SEABOARD
MONDAY NIGHT WILL INTERACT WITH THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM
TUESDAY NIGHT. A 170+KT JET WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
REGION WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET ACROSS THE SE
STATES. THE COLD AIR AND WARM WATER INTERACTION AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WILL CAUSE CYCLOGENESIS. THE 500 MB TROUGH WILL TREK
EASTWARD INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE
EAST COAST.

GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN OFF
THE EAST COAST AS IT MOVES N-NE PARELLEL TO THE EAST COAST. THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW MOVES IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE ECMWF IS CLOSER
THAN THE GFS/NAM. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
THE LOW 30S ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND NEAR 40 NEAR THE WATERS. USED
SREF TEMPS AS IT HAS BEEN DOING WELL WITH TEMPS FOR THE
MID-ATLANTIC. MOISTURE WILL FEED INTO THE LOW WEDNESDAY AND
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WED MORNING.
MAX TEMPS FOR THE DAY WILL LIKELY BE REACHED WED MORNING AS PRECIP
MOVES QUICKLY INTO THE REGION. DYNAMICAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
DROP FURTHER INTO THE MID 30S...A CRITICAL ZONE. SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE BLUE
RIDGE...VA HIGHLANDS AND THE WESTERN SLOPES AS THEY WILL BE NEAR
FREEZING IF NOT BELOW. RAIN AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED FURTHER EAST AND
IN LOWER LYING AREAS. ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN PIEDMONT
INTO THE DC METRO AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND WED MORNING AS TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR 40.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED NORTH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS AROUND FREEZING WILL BE FURTHER NORTH WHILE
DEWPTS WILL BE AROUND FREEZING. NRLY WINDS WILL BE ADVECTING IN
THESE TEMPS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NOT TOO
EXCITED THAT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE FROM DYNAMICAL
COOLING AND NOT A BELOW FREEZING AIRMASS. WITH THAT BEING SAID
WENT WITH THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SUBURBS OF
BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON DC. THIS WILL LEAD TO ACCUMULATION ACROSS
THIS AREA. TAKING THICKNESSES INTO ACCOUNT FROM SREF MEAN...3-5
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE N-W SUBURBS OF BALTIMORE AND
WASHINGTON DC THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHER AMTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE AND PORTIONS OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. TEMPS ALONG
I-95 AND FURTHER EAST WILL BE WARMER AND THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL
LIKELY SETUP ACROSS THE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON METRO AREA RESULTING
IN A SHARP GRADIENT OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. LESS THAN AN INCH IS
EXPECTED FOR BALTIMORE/DC AT THIS TIME.

THIS COASTAL STORM WILL MOVE OUT QUICK AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL WRAP UP
WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR-IFR FLGT CONDS ATTM...DUE MAINLY TO CIGS. AM XPCTG A SLGT
IMPRVMNT THRU DAYBREAK...AND THEN CIGS WL BE LIFTING TO VFR BY NOON.
VFR SHUD PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PD.

WNDS WL BE THE OTHER ISSUE. SLY WINDS 15-25 KT ATTM AT THE SFC. LWX
VWP INDICATES 40 KT AT 2K FT. HV LLWS GROUP CONTG...ALTHO THE JET
AXIS SHUD BE PASSING NE OF TERMINALS SHORTLY /BTWN 09-10Z/. WINDS WL
STILL BE STRONG THRUT THE DAY...W/ MEAN LYR MIXING SUGGESTING A FEW
GUSTS SHUD REACH AOA 30KT ELY TAFTN. WNDS WL BECOME WLY TNGT..AND
DIMINISH TO ARND 10-15 KT.

VFR TUE. WLY WINDS CONTG 10-15 KT.


&&

.MARINE...
SCA ACRS ALL WATERS ATTM...W/ STRONG SCA UP THE BAY. RECENTLY SAW A
33KT GUST AT NAK...WHICH IS ALSO REFLECTED AT TPLM2. WL MONITOR THAT
CLOSELY. IF ITS A TREND AND NOT AN OUTLIER...WL EITHER NEED TO RAISE
GLW OR ADD A MWS. SUSPECT THE LATTER WL BE THE COURSE OF ACTION.

THERE WL BE ANOTHER PEAK IN THE MIXED PROFILE ELY TAFTN WHERE WNDS
MAY REACH 30-35 KT. HV CAPPED WNDS AT 30 KT ATTM DUE TO WATER TEMPS
IN THE 40S. IF WE NEED TO CHANGE COURSE OF ACTION THIS MRNG...WL
NEED TO ADJUST REST OF DAY AS WELL.

WNDS WL VEER WLY TNGT AS CDFNT CROSSES WATERS. FNT WL BE LOSING
SUPPORT...AND THUS WONT BE XTNDG ONTO CURRENT SCA...WHICH ENDS 01Z
MID-UPR PTMC AND 06Z ELSW.

A LIGHTER WLY FLOW WL CONT INTO TUE...10-15 KT.


&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
IN SPITE OF A STRONG SLY FLOW...WATER LVLS HAVE REMAINED NEAR OR BLO
ASTRO NORMS. THEREFORE...NO ISSUES EXPECTED TODAY OR TOMORROW.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...HAS
AVIATION...HTS/HAS
MARINE...HTS/HAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 240855
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
355 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFYING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH
ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC WMFNT HAS JUMPED N OF CWFA. LTST TEMPS E OF THE BLURDG ARND 60F
AT 08Z. I-81 CRRDR AND FOOTHILLS LAGGING A BIT BHD...BUT A GUSTY SLY
FLOW RESIDES AREAWIDE...SO THE WARM PUSH SHUD ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE
AREA BY DAYBREAK. THE FNT WAS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PCPN. THUS...THE
LGT-MDT STRATIFORM RA ALREADY ACRS THE DELMARVA AND POINTS N OF
THERE. HV LGT RESIDUAL SHRA...SPCLY BTWN I-95 AND THE BLURDG DUE TO
A SLGT UPSLP COMPONENT. HWVR...THE FORCING FOR THAT WL WANE BY
SUNRISE AS WELL.

THE CWFA WL BE W/IN STRONG SLY FLOW TDA. THE CDFNT WL DROP INTO AREA
AFTR 18Z...BUT IT REMAINS MOISTURE STARVED W/ DYNAMIC FORCING ACRS
OF W OF THE OHVLY. THUS...BELIEVE IT WL COME THRU DRY...AND HV
PULLED POPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. RH PROFILES DO INDICATE HIGH
ENUF VALUES IN THE LLVLS FOR CONTD CLDCVR TIL MIDDAY. HWVR...MEAN
LYR RH THINS OUT DURING THE AFTN...AND XPCT INCRSG SUNSHN.

CONSIDERING THE WARM START AND H8 TEMPS RISING TO 12-14C...HV RAISED
MAXT SVRL DEGF. WL HV HIGHS AOA 70F AREAWIDE...AND A CRRDR IN THE
MID 70S BALT-DC-EZF.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
RDGG WL BLD ACRS THE CWFA FM THE W TNGT-TUE...FOR A PD OF DRY WX.
HWVR...UPR LVL CLDS WL BE INCRSG ONCE AGN TUE AFTN IN ADVC OF AN
IMPULSE OVER THE SERN CONUS. ALTHO H8 TEMPS WL BE DROPPING...THE
CORE OF THE COOLER AIR WL HANG BACK W OF THE MTNS...ALONG W/ THE
CENTER OF THE RDG. THEREFORE...ITS NOT GOING TO GET ALL THAT COLD...
JUST COOLER THAN TDA. MIN-T FCST STILL A LTL ABV CLIMO...AND MAXT
TUE RIGHT AT CLIMO.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY.

A 500 MB UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS WITH
THE AXIS ACROSS THE MID-WEST TUESDAY NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND NRLY WINDS WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR
OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT THAT WENT THROUGH THE EASTERN SEABOARD
MONDAY NIGHT WILL INTERACT WITH THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM
TUESDAY NIGHT. A 170+KT JET WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
REGION WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET ACROSS THE SE
STATES. THE COLD AIR AND WARM WATER INTERACTION AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WILL CAUSE CYCLOGENESIS. THE 500 MB TROUGH WILL TREK
EASTWARD INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE
EAST COAST.

GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN OFF
THE EAST COAST AS IT MOVES N-NE PARELLEL TO THE EAST COAST. THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW MOVES IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE ECMWF IS CLOSER
THAN THE GFS/NAM. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
THE LOW 30S ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND NEAR 40 NEAR THE WATERS. USED
SREF TEMPS AS IT HAS BEEN DOING WELL WITH TEMPS FOR THE
MID-ATLANTIC. MOISTURE WILL FEED INTO THE LOW WEDNESDAY AND
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WED MORNING.
MAX TEMPS FOR THE DAY WILL LIKELY BE REACHED WED MORNING AS PRECIP
MOVES QUICKLY INTO THE REGION. DYNAMICAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
DROP FURTHER INTO THE MID 30S...A CRITICAL ZONE. SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE BLUE
RIDGE...VA HIGHLANDS AND THE WESTERN SLOPES AS THEY WILL BE NEAR
FREEZING IF NOT BELOW. RAIN AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED FURTHER EAST AND
IN LOWER LYING AREAS. ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN PIEDMONT
INTO THE DC METRO AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND WED MORNING AS TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR 40.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED NORTH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS AROUND FREEZING WILL BE FURTHER NORTH WHILE
DEWPTS WILL BE AROUND FREEZING. NRLY WINDS WILL BE ADVECTING IN
THESE TEMPS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NOT TOO
EXCITED THAT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE FROM DYNAMICAL
COOLING AND NOT A BELOW FREEZING AIRMASS. WITH THAT BEING SAID
WENT WITH THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SUBURBS OF
BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON DC. THIS WILL LEAD TO ACCUMULATION ACROSS
THIS AREA. TAKING THICKNESSES INTO ACCOUNT FROM SREF MEAN...3-5
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE N-W SUBURBS OF BALTIMORE AND
WASHINGTON DC THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHER AMTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE AND PORTIONS OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. TEMPS ALONG
I-95 AND FURTHER EAST WILL BE WARMER AND THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL
LIKELY SETUP ACROSS THE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON METRO AREA RESULTING
IN A SHARP GRADIENT OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. LESS THAN AN INCH IS
EXPECTED FOR BALTIMORE/DC AT THIS TIME.

THIS COASTAL STORM WILL MOVE OUT QUICK AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL WRAP UP
WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR-IFR FLGT CONDS ATTM...DUE MAINLY TO CIGS. AM XPCTG A SLGT
IMPRVMNT THRU DAYBREAK...AND THEN CIGS WL BE LIFTING TO VFR BY NOON.
VFR SHUD PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PD.

WNDS WL BE THE OTHER ISSUE. SLY WINDS 15-25 KT ATTM AT THE SFC. LWX
VWP INDICATES 40 KT AT 2K FT. HV LLWS GROUP CONTG...ALTHO THE JET
AXIS SHUD BE PASSING NE OF TERMINALS SHORTLY /BTWN 09-10Z/. WINDS WL
STILL BE STRONG THRUT THE DAY...W/ MEAN LYR MIXING SUGGESTING A FEW
GUSTS SHUD REACH AOA 30KT ELY TAFTN. WNDS WL BECOME WLY TNGT..AND
DIMINISH TO ARND 10-15 KT.

VFR TUE. WLY WINDS CONTG 10-15 KT.


&&

.MARINE...
SCA ACRS ALL WATERS ATTM...W/ STRONG SCA UP THE BAY. RECENTLY SAW A
33KT GUST AT NAK...WHICH IS ALSO REFLECTED AT TPLM2. WL MONITOR THAT
CLOSELY. IF ITS A TREND AND NOT AN OUTLIER...WL EITHER NEED TO RAISE
GLW OR ADD A MWS. SUSPECT THE LATTER WL BE THE COURSE OF ACTION.

THERE WL BE ANOTHER PEAK IN THE MIXED PROFILE ELY TAFTN WHERE WNDS
MAY REACH 30-35 KT. HV CAPPED WNDS AT 30 KT ATTM DUE TO WATER TEMPS
IN THE 40S. IF WE NEED TO CHANGE COURSE OF ACTION THIS MRNG...WL
NEED TO ADJUST REST OF DAY AS WELL.

WNDS WL VEER WLY TNGT AS CDFNT CROSSES WATERS. FNT WL BE LOSING
SUPPORT...AND THUS WONT BE XTNDG ONTO CURRENT SCA...WHICH ENDS 01Z
MID-UPR PTMC AND 06Z ELSW.

A LIGHTER WLY FLOW WL CONT INTO TUE...10-15 KT.


&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
IN SPITE OF A STRONG SLY FLOW...WATER LVLS HAVE REMAINED NEAR OR BLO
ASTRO NORMS. THEREFORE...NO ISSUES EXPECTED TODAY OR TOMORROW.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...HAS
AVIATION...HTS/HAS
MARINE...HTS/HAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS







000
FXUS61 KPHI 240854
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
354 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS LATE TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM FORMING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING MOVES EAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY THANKSGIVING. A
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND DRY HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES TO THE CAROLINAS NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE  WAS LOCATED NR THE GRTLKS.  ITS ASSOCD
WMFNT MOVED THRU OVERNIGHT AND RAIN, SOME MDT TO HVY CAME ALG WITH
IT.  THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN IS NOW MOVG IN FROM THE SW AND IS IN
PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA.  EXPECT RAIN TO END FROM SW TO NE OVER
MOST, IF NOT ALL LOCATIONS BY DAYBREAK.  THERE COULD BE SOME
LINGERING RAIN OVER NRN SECTIONS INTO THE ERLY MORNING, BUT THAT
SHUD BE ABOUT IT.  THEN, A VERY NICE DAY IS IN STORE OVERALL.  THERE
WILL BE A LOT OF CLOUDS IN THE MRNG BUT THE SUN WILL BREAK OUT DURG
THE LATE MRNG/ERLY AFTN.

WITH THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR AND VERY STRONG SWLY FLOW, TEMPS
WILL SOAR INTO THE 70S AND NEAR RECORD, IF NOT RECORD BREAKING
WARMTH IS EXPECTED.  IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE BREEZY, WITH WIND GUSTING
UPWARDS OF 35 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO SERN CANADA, IT`S
CDFNT WILL CROSS THE REGION ERLY TONIGHT.  HOWEVER, LATEST GUID
INDICATES IT WILL BE DRY AND POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FCST.
HIGH PRES FROM THE SW WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN AND EXPECT A GENL
CLEARING TREND BY MRNG.  IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
HIGHER THAN WHAT HIGH TEMPS SHUD BE THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL FOCUSED ON THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING TIME FRAME
AND THE POTENTIAL WINTRY IMPACTS TO THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE
YEAR.

NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS HAVE PRETTY
MUCH STAYED THE COURSE WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW, COMING INTO
SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT. THE ECMWF IS STILL THE FURTHEST WEST
AND LEAST PROGRESSIVE, WHILE THE GFS SEEMS TO BE A COMFORTABLE
MIDDLE GROUND, AT LEAST FOR THE TRACK OF THE LOW. BY 00Z
THURSDAY...THE DIFFERENCE IN THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IS ONLY ABOUT 150 MILES. THE ONE
PUZZLING THING WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS IS THAT THE GFS CAME IN
CONSIDERABLY COLDER THAN ANY OF THE OTHER MODELS, ODD GIVEN ITS
TRACK OF THE LOW. AS FAR AS PRECIP TYPE, MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE
ECMWF, GFS, AND NAM ALL INDICATE EITHER RAIN, RAIN/SNOW, OR SNOW
(ALTHOUGH THE TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF THESE TRANSITIONS ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN BETWEEN THE MODELS...SEE BELOW). THUS, AT THIS POINT
DON/T HAVE ANY CONCERNS FOR FREEZING PRECIP OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS.

LETS TALK TURKEY....FOR SNOW AMOUNTS, STILL EXPECT A PRETTY SHARP
GRADIENT ROUGHLY AROUND THE I 95 CORRIDOR. NORTH AND WEST OF THE
FALL LINE COULD SEE AMOUNTS FROM 2 UP TO 8 INCHES (THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NW NJ AND THE
POCONOS). EAST OF THE FALL LINE COULD SEE UP TO 2 INCHES. HOWEVER,
COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY ACCUMULATIONS AS WITH
THE WATER TEMPERATURE STILL IN THE 50S, THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD
KEEP THEM WELL ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH OUT THE EVENT. THE CAVEAT TO
ALL OF THIS IS THAT THE LOCATION OF THE RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION AND
EVEN SNOW RATIOS IS VERY MUCH DEPENDENT ON THE TEMPERATURE, AND
WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD OUTLIER OF THE GFS, THERE IS
POOR MODEL AGREEMENT ON THIS ISSUE, SO SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN.

THE LOW SHOULD BE OVER THE CANADIAN EASTERN MARITIMES BY THURSDAY
MORNING, SO PRECIP SHOULD MOVE OUT QUICKLY BY THEN, IF NOT SOONER.

BEYOND THANKSGIVING...STAYED CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE AND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AS TO FOCUS ON THE MID WEEK STORM. COLD AIR
SHOULD SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE
WEEK, BEFORE A NORTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING
ANOTHER WARM FRONT SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

ITS BEEN A DIFFICULT NIGHT FOR AVIATION.  THE PRECIP AND LOWER CIGS
TOOK LONGER TO MOVE IN, BUT THEN CAME DOWN FASTER THAN FCST.  NOW,
THE PRECIP IS MOVG OUT SOONER THAN EXPECTED, BUT EVEN WHEN IT IS
STILL EXPECT IFR/MVFR TO LINGER BEFORE A RETURN TO VFR LATER.
HOWEVER, WITH THE SYS MOVG OUT SOONER, PERHAPS CONDS WILL IMPROVE
SOONER THAN CURRENTLY FCST.

CURRENTLY, ALL SITES ARE EITHER MVFR OR IFR, AND THERE MAY EVEN BE
SOME LCL LIFR.  RAIN IS ENDING FROM SW TO NE AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO
SO THRU DAYBREAK.  ANY LINGERING PRECIP AFTER DAYBREAK WUD BE OVER
NRN AND ERN AREAS.

THEN CONDS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR.

A GUSTY S TO SW WIND WILL REMAIN WITH US ALL DAY WITH GUSTS NR 30
KTS IN SOME LOCATIONS.

LLWS REMAINS A THREAT THRU THE ERLY MRNG AS WELL WITH VERY STRONG
WINDS OVER 50 KTS ABV THE SFC.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...SHOULD GENERALLY BE VFR ACROSS THE REGION

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COASTAL STORM WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS. REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO
RAIN ALONG THE COAST (KACY/KMIV), RAIN SNOW MIX CHANGING TO ALL
SNOW IN THE DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY (KTTN KPNE KPHL AND KILG) AND
MOSTLY SNOW KABE AND KRDG. IN ADDITION, EXPECT PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY WINDS FOR GENERALLY THE LATTER HALF OF
THE DAY WITH GUSTS 12-25 KT FROM WEST TO EAST. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD END AS SNOW MOST TAF SITES AT NIGHT EXCEPT POSSIBLY NOT AT
KMIV/KACY.

THANKSGIVING...CONDITIONS SLOWLY RETURN TO VFR AND WINDS SHIFT TO
WESTERLY OR NORTHWEST. THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY MAINLY JUST N OF KRDG AND
KABE. WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WRNG WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT AS PREV ISSUED THRU LATER THIS
MRNG, THEN A BACK END SCA WILL BE NEEDED, LIKELY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE SHORT TERM PD.  HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SW, BUT THE
P GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL KEEP GUSTY
WIND OVER THE REGION AND THIS, IN TURN, WILL KEEP THE SEAS ELEVATED.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...NEAR OR JUST BELOW SCA CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH STRONG NORTHERLY OR
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL SLOWLY FALL TO SCA CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY FALL BELOW SCA
CRITERIA BUT ATLANTIC SEAS MAY NOT DROP BELOW 5 FT TIL AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...POSSIBLE SCA COLD AIR ADVECTION WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO THE
REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS BELOW FOR OUR FOUR
PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING UNBROKEN PERIOD OF
RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL SNOWFALL DATA.

DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS:

NOVEMBER 26TH:               NOVEMBER 27TH:       PERIOD OF RECORD:

ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955    1.2 INCHES 1978            1874

PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898         6.9 INCHES 1949,1938       1872

ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950         4.5 INCHES 1978            1894

ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925         7.0 INCHES 1938            1922

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NJZ001-007-008.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...DRAG







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240601
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
101 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
GUSTY WINDS MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH LARGE SCALE STRATIFORM RAINFALL ARE
ADVANCING NORTHWARD AND ACROSS I-80 AT THIS HOUR. A FAIRLY STARK
DRY SLOT IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FOLLOWING IT AND IS ALSO
WELL DEPICTED ON MODEL CROSS SECTIONS VIA A VERY DEEP TROPOPAUSE
FOLD THAT IS PULLING THE 1.5 PVU SURFACE DOWN TOWARD AND BELOW 600
MB ON MOST GUIDANCE. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS TO
INCREASE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE DRY SLOT ADVANCES ACROSS THE
AREA.

AS THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES FURTHER TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE EARLY PART
OF THE DAY ON MONDAY...THE DEEPENING TROPOPAUSE FOLD REMAINS
SPLAYED OUT FROM SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TOWARD NORTHERN OHIO RIGHT INTO
THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRONG MIXING AND VERY
EFFICIENT DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF MOMENTUM IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
CORRIDOR OF THE 50-60 KTS OF AVAILABLE MOMENTUM. GIVEN THAT WE ARE
ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THIS AREA...IT WOULD SEEM THE VERY
STRONGEST GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...HOWEVER
SOUNDINGS INDICATE 45 KTS IS STILL A VERY REASONABLE FORECAST FOR
GUSTING POTENTIAL IN MANY SPOTS. AS SUCH...THE ONGOING WIND
ADVISORY FOR MONDAY STILL LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPR TROFG AND A DEEPENING SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO
THE UPR GT LKS MON. THE LOWS ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS PROGGED FOR A MON
AFTN PASSAGE ACRS OUR RGN. MSTR IS LTD SO MAINTAINED CHC POPS WITH
FROPA. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ARND THE DEEPENING LOW SHOULD
BRING GUSTY SFC WNDS AS MXG BEGINS MON. FCST SOUNDINGS/GUST
TECHNIQUES INDICATE GUSTS TO ARND 50 MPH ARE LIKELY. WL ISSUE A
WIND ADVISORY FM LT MON MRNG INTO ERLY EVE AS WNDS WL LIKELY STAY
GUSTY FOR A FEW HRS AFT FROPA.

COLD ADVCTN KICKS IN AFT FROPA AS BROAD UPR TROFG RMNS ACRS THE GT
LKS AND UPR MIDWEST THRU TUE. STRATOCU IS EXPD...THOUGH SNW SHWR
CHCS WL BE MINIMAL WITH A SW BNDRY LYR FLOW PREVENTING ANY LK
CONNECTIONS OR SGFNT UPSLOPE COMPONENT.

ANOTHER BROAD UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO SET UP BY MID WK...AS A
COASTAL LOW DVLPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC RGN. THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS
TRACK RMNS IN QN...AND THIS WL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE POTENTIAL AMT
AND LOCATION OF SNW THAT THIS SYSTEM BRINGS. THE SREF SOLN LOOKS
VRY REASONABLE ATTM GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC PTN ATTM...WHICH BRINGS SNW
CHCS FM PIT EWD...AND KEEPS THE HEAVIEST PCPN E OF OUR AREA.

TEMPS ARE EXPD TO RCH 10-15 DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS MON...BUT WL DCR
TO ARND 10 DEG BLO AVG BY TUE AND WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LARGE VARIATIONS IN GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG RANGE AND ADJUSTED
FORECAST WITH THE NEW WPC PROGS TEMPERED WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF. AS
STORM SYSTEM MOVES UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS INTO
THANKSGIVING DAY FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ADVANCING
TOWARD ONLY THE MOST NORTHERN TAF SITES AT THIS HOUR. A LARGE
SCALE DRY SLOT FOLLOWS IT WITH WINDS GUSTING AND TURNING A BIT
MORE SOUTHERLY. BEHIND THIS DRY SLOT...STRATUS IS ADVANCING
NORTHEASTWARD AND WILL LIKELY COME OVER MOST SITES IN THE WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW BY
AFTERNOON AS STRATUS SCOURS OUT. WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES. FRIES


OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240601
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
101 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
GUSTY WINDS MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH LARGE SCALE STRATIFORM RAINFALL ARE
ADVANCING NORTHWARD AND ACROSS I-80 AT THIS HOUR. A FAIRLY STARK
DRY SLOT IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FOLLOWING IT AND IS ALSO
WELL DEPICTED ON MODEL CROSS SECTIONS VIA A VERY DEEP TROPOPAUSE
FOLD THAT IS PULLING THE 1.5 PVU SURFACE DOWN TOWARD AND BELOW 600
MB ON MOST GUIDANCE. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS TO
INCREASE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE DRY SLOT ADVANCES ACROSS THE
AREA.

AS THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES FURTHER TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE EARLY PART
OF THE DAY ON MONDAY...THE DEEPENING TROPOPAUSE FOLD REMAINS
SPLAYED OUT FROM SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TOWARD NORTHERN OHIO RIGHT INTO
THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRONG MIXING AND VERY
EFFICIENT DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF MOMENTUM IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
CORRIDOR OF THE 50-60 KTS OF AVAILABLE MOMENTUM. GIVEN THAT WE ARE
ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THIS AREA...IT WOULD SEEM THE VERY
STRONGEST GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...HOWEVER
SOUNDINGS INDICATE 45 KTS IS STILL A VERY REASONABLE FORECAST FOR
GUSTING POTENTIAL IN MANY SPOTS. AS SUCH...THE ONGOING WIND
ADVISORY FOR MONDAY STILL LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPR TROFG AND A DEEPENING SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO
THE UPR GT LKS MON. THE LOWS ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS PROGGED FOR A MON
AFTN PASSAGE ACRS OUR RGN. MSTR IS LTD SO MAINTAINED CHC POPS WITH
FROPA. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ARND THE DEEPENING LOW SHOULD
BRING GUSTY SFC WNDS AS MXG BEGINS MON. FCST SOUNDINGS/GUST
TECHNIQUES INDICATE GUSTS TO ARND 50 MPH ARE LIKELY. WL ISSUE A
WIND ADVISORY FM LT MON MRNG INTO ERLY EVE AS WNDS WL LIKELY STAY
GUSTY FOR A FEW HRS AFT FROPA.

COLD ADVCTN KICKS IN AFT FROPA AS BROAD UPR TROFG RMNS ACRS THE GT
LKS AND UPR MIDWEST THRU TUE. STRATOCU IS EXPD...THOUGH SNW SHWR
CHCS WL BE MINIMAL WITH A SW BNDRY LYR FLOW PREVENTING ANY LK
CONNECTIONS OR SGFNT UPSLOPE COMPONENT.

ANOTHER BROAD UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO SET UP BY MID WK...AS A
COASTAL LOW DVLPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC RGN. THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS
TRACK RMNS IN QN...AND THIS WL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE POTENTIAL AMT
AND LOCATION OF SNW THAT THIS SYSTEM BRINGS. THE SREF SOLN LOOKS
VRY REASONABLE ATTM GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC PTN ATTM...WHICH BRINGS SNW
CHCS FM PIT EWD...AND KEEPS THE HEAVIEST PCPN E OF OUR AREA.

TEMPS ARE EXPD TO RCH 10-15 DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS MON...BUT WL DCR
TO ARND 10 DEG BLO AVG BY TUE AND WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LARGE VARIATIONS IN GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG RANGE AND ADJUSTED
FORECAST WITH THE NEW WPC PROGS TEMPERED WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF. AS
STORM SYSTEM MOVES UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS INTO
THANKSGIVING DAY FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ADVANCING
TOWARD ONLY THE MOST NORTHERN TAF SITES AT THIS HOUR. A LARGE
SCALE DRY SLOT FOLLOWS IT WITH WINDS GUSTING AND TURNING A BIT
MORE SOUTHERLY. BEHIND THIS DRY SLOT...STRATUS IS ADVANCING
NORTHEASTWARD AND WILL LIKELY COME OVER MOST SITES IN THE WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW BY
AFTERNOON AS STRATUS SCOURS OUT. WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES. FRIES


OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240601
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
101 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
GUSTY WINDS MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH LARGE SCALE STRATIFORM RAINFALL ARE
ADVANCING NORTHWARD AND ACROSS I-80 AT THIS HOUR. A FAIRLY STARK
DRY SLOT IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FOLLOWING IT AND IS ALSO
WELL DEPICTED ON MODEL CROSS SECTIONS VIA A VERY DEEP TROPOPAUSE
FOLD THAT IS PULLING THE 1.5 PVU SURFACE DOWN TOWARD AND BELOW 600
MB ON MOST GUIDANCE. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS TO
INCREASE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE DRY SLOT ADVANCES ACROSS THE
AREA.

AS THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES FURTHER TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE EARLY PART
OF THE DAY ON MONDAY...THE DEEPENING TROPOPAUSE FOLD REMAINS
SPLAYED OUT FROM SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TOWARD NORTHERN OHIO RIGHT INTO
THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRONG MIXING AND VERY
EFFICIENT DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF MOMENTUM IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
CORRIDOR OF THE 50-60 KTS OF AVAILABLE MOMENTUM. GIVEN THAT WE ARE
ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THIS AREA...IT WOULD SEEM THE VERY
STRONGEST GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...HOWEVER
SOUNDINGS INDICATE 45 KTS IS STILL A VERY REASONABLE FORECAST FOR
GUSTING POTENTIAL IN MANY SPOTS. AS SUCH...THE ONGOING WIND
ADVISORY FOR MONDAY STILL LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPR TROFG AND A DEEPENING SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO
THE UPR GT LKS MON. THE LOWS ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS PROGGED FOR A MON
AFTN PASSAGE ACRS OUR RGN. MSTR IS LTD SO MAINTAINED CHC POPS WITH
FROPA. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ARND THE DEEPENING LOW SHOULD
BRING GUSTY SFC WNDS AS MXG BEGINS MON. FCST SOUNDINGS/GUST
TECHNIQUES INDICATE GUSTS TO ARND 50 MPH ARE LIKELY. WL ISSUE A
WIND ADVISORY FM LT MON MRNG INTO ERLY EVE AS WNDS WL LIKELY STAY
GUSTY FOR A FEW HRS AFT FROPA.

COLD ADVCTN KICKS IN AFT FROPA AS BROAD UPR TROFG RMNS ACRS THE GT
LKS AND UPR MIDWEST THRU TUE. STRATOCU IS EXPD...THOUGH SNW SHWR
CHCS WL BE MINIMAL WITH A SW BNDRY LYR FLOW PREVENTING ANY LK
CONNECTIONS OR SGFNT UPSLOPE COMPONENT.

ANOTHER BROAD UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO SET UP BY MID WK...AS A
COASTAL LOW DVLPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC RGN. THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS
TRACK RMNS IN QN...AND THIS WL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE POTENTIAL AMT
AND LOCATION OF SNW THAT THIS SYSTEM BRINGS. THE SREF SOLN LOOKS
VRY REASONABLE ATTM GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC PTN ATTM...WHICH BRINGS SNW
CHCS FM PIT EWD...AND KEEPS THE HEAVIEST PCPN E OF OUR AREA.

TEMPS ARE EXPD TO RCH 10-15 DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS MON...BUT WL DCR
TO ARND 10 DEG BLO AVG BY TUE AND WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LARGE VARIATIONS IN GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG RANGE AND ADJUSTED
FORECAST WITH THE NEW WPC PROGS TEMPERED WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF. AS
STORM SYSTEM MOVES UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS INTO
THANKSGIVING DAY FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ADVANCING
TOWARD ONLY THE MOST NORTHERN TAF SITES AT THIS HOUR. A LARGE
SCALE DRY SLOT FOLLOWS IT WITH WINDS GUSTING AND TURNING A BIT
MORE SOUTHERLY. BEHIND THIS DRY SLOT...STRATUS IS ADVANCING
NORTHEASTWARD AND WILL LIKELY COME OVER MOST SITES IN THE WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW BY
AFTERNOON AS STRATUS SCOURS OUT. WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES. FRIES


OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240601
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
101 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
GUSTY WINDS MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH LARGE SCALE STRATIFORM RAINFALL ARE
ADVANCING NORTHWARD AND ACROSS I-80 AT THIS HOUR. A FAIRLY STARK
DRY SLOT IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FOLLOWING IT AND IS ALSO
WELL DEPICTED ON MODEL CROSS SECTIONS VIA A VERY DEEP TROPOPAUSE
FOLD THAT IS PULLING THE 1.5 PVU SURFACE DOWN TOWARD AND BELOW 600
MB ON MOST GUIDANCE. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS TO
INCREASE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE DRY SLOT ADVANCES ACROSS THE
AREA.

AS THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES FURTHER TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE EARLY PART
OF THE DAY ON MONDAY...THE DEEPENING TROPOPAUSE FOLD REMAINS
SPLAYED OUT FROM SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TOWARD NORTHERN OHIO RIGHT INTO
THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRONG MIXING AND VERY
EFFICIENT DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF MOMENTUM IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
CORRIDOR OF THE 50-60 KTS OF AVAILABLE MOMENTUM. GIVEN THAT WE ARE
ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THIS AREA...IT WOULD SEEM THE VERY
STRONGEST GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...HOWEVER
SOUNDINGS INDICATE 45 KTS IS STILL A VERY REASONABLE FORECAST FOR
GUSTING POTENTIAL IN MANY SPOTS. AS SUCH...THE ONGOING WIND
ADVISORY FOR MONDAY STILL LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPR TROFG AND A DEEPENING SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO
THE UPR GT LKS MON. THE LOWS ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS PROGGED FOR A MON
AFTN PASSAGE ACRS OUR RGN. MSTR IS LTD SO MAINTAINED CHC POPS WITH
FROPA. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ARND THE DEEPENING LOW SHOULD
BRING GUSTY SFC WNDS AS MXG BEGINS MON. FCST SOUNDINGS/GUST
TECHNIQUES INDICATE GUSTS TO ARND 50 MPH ARE LIKELY. WL ISSUE A
WIND ADVISORY FM LT MON MRNG INTO ERLY EVE AS WNDS WL LIKELY STAY
GUSTY FOR A FEW HRS AFT FROPA.

COLD ADVCTN KICKS IN AFT FROPA AS BROAD UPR TROFG RMNS ACRS THE GT
LKS AND UPR MIDWEST THRU TUE. STRATOCU IS EXPD...THOUGH SNW SHWR
CHCS WL BE MINIMAL WITH A SW BNDRY LYR FLOW PREVENTING ANY LK
CONNECTIONS OR SGFNT UPSLOPE COMPONENT.

ANOTHER BROAD UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO SET UP BY MID WK...AS A
COASTAL LOW DVLPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC RGN. THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS
TRACK RMNS IN QN...AND THIS WL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE POTENTIAL AMT
AND LOCATION OF SNW THAT THIS SYSTEM BRINGS. THE SREF SOLN LOOKS
VRY REASONABLE ATTM GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC PTN ATTM...WHICH BRINGS SNW
CHCS FM PIT EWD...AND KEEPS THE HEAVIEST PCPN E OF OUR AREA.

TEMPS ARE EXPD TO RCH 10-15 DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS MON...BUT WL DCR
TO ARND 10 DEG BLO AVG BY TUE AND WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LARGE VARIATIONS IN GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG RANGE AND ADJUSTED
FORECAST WITH THE NEW WPC PROGS TEMPERED WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF. AS
STORM SYSTEM MOVES UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS INTO
THANKSGIVING DAY FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ADVANCING
TOWARD ONLY THE MOST NORTHERN TAF SITES AT THIS HOUR. A LARGE
SCALE DRY SLOT FOLLOWS IT WITH WINDS GUSTING AND TURNING A BIT
MORE SOUTHERLY. BEHIND THIS DRY SLOT...STRATUS IS ADVANCING
NORTHEASTWARD AND WILL LIKELY COME OVER MOST SITES IN THE WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW BY
AFTERNOON AS STRATUS SCOURS OUT. WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES. FRIES


OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240530
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1230 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE EAST
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY INDICATES A POTENT TROUGH LIFTING NE INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE
GULF. AT THE SURFACE...~992MB LOW WAS ANALYZED OVER SE MO/W KY...WITH
THE SFC WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND NE
ALONG COASTAL SC AND SE NC.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING SCT SHOWERS LIFTING SW TO NE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING, WITH A SWATH OF MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION...A RESULT OF STRONG VERTICAL LIFT ALONG THE
FRONT...NOTED FROM THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BACK INTO E KY. HV MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP BASED UPON THE LATEST DOWNSCALE NAM
AND HRRR, WHICH SEEM TO BE HANDLING LLVL WINDS AND PCPN TRENDS
WELL THUS FAR THIS EVENING. THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD DUE TO A STRONG NEARLY 70KT LLJ. 12HR
POPS FOR RAIN TONIGHT WILL REMAIN AT 100%. GIVEN LATEST TIMING,
EXPECT WIDESPREAD MOD RAINFALL TO MOVE ACROSS WRN PORTIONS
BY MIDNIGHT TO AROUND 2AM...BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VA BETWEEN 2-4AM AND PUSHING OFFSHORE BY SUNRISE MON
MORNING.

HV MAINTAINED THUNDER MENTION OVER NE NC, AND HV ADDED SE VA AND
LOWER EASTERN SHORE BASED ON LIGHTNING DATA OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS WHICH SEEMS TO MESH WELL WITH CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS,
THOUGH LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER EXPECTED IN THESE
AREAS. SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE CONTINUES FOR NE NC COUNTIES
IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES REMAIN RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE...AND ANY MID- LEVEL DRY AIR
APPEARS TO ARRIVE ONCE THE STRONGEST FORCING EXITS THE REGION...SO
THE SEVERE THREAT IS MINIMAL. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
6HR PRESSURE FALLS OF -6MB TO -10MB PER GFS WILL RESULT IN
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. GUSTS FROM
THE SSE DIRECTION OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE OCCURRING EARLY TONIGHT...WITH READINGS LIKELY
TO RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN MILD/MOIST SLY FLOW AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG FORCING AND SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
SHOULD RESULT IN A ~6HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAIN TONIGHT...WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS AVERAGING 0.5 TO 0.75IN
N-CENTRAL PORTIONS AND 1.00-1.25IN NEAR THE COAST (AND NE NC).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION BY 12Z MON...WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE FAR WRN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUE. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING
EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY INLAND. A GUSTY SW WIND WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S (SEE THE CLIMO
SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS). 20-30% POPS WILL BE CONFINED TO E/SE
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS THE 23/12Z NAM REMAINS AN OUTLIER IN
LINGERING DEEPER MOISTURE.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED INLAND. CLOUDS POTENTIALLY LINGER NEAR THE
COAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE...AND LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TUE. HIGHS TUE
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER MORNING
LOWS FROM THE MID 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE.

23/12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEMONSTRATE AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEAR THE SOUTHEAST CONUS LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT. THIS LOW THEN TRACKS NNE
ALONG THE COAST WED BRINGING RA TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON A BUSY
TRAVEL DAY. OF NOTE THE 23/12Z NAM IS FLATTER AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE...BUT AT THIS TIME THE GFS/ECMWF SCENARIO IS PREFERRED
PER PMDHMD. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SOME WET SN COULD MIX IN AS THE
PCPN TAPERS OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO ANY
ACCUMULATION IS LOW AT THIS TIME...AS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO COOL
THE BOUNDARY LAYER FULLY BY DYNAMICAL COOLING AS ANY CAA IS MINIMAL.
CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE OFF THE 23/00Z GFS SUGGESTS THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SN WILL BE ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES.
CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 30S/LOW
40S INLAND...TO THE MID/UPPER 40S OVER SE PORTIONS...AND THESE WILL
LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. STRONG LO PRES WILL BE JUST OFF THE DE CST AT 00Z
THU...AND WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NNE AND JUST OFF
THE MAINE CST BY 12Z THU. PCPN WILL BE TAPERING OFF OR ENDING FM SW
TO NE WED EVENG INTO EARLY THU MORNG...AND COULD END AS A MIXTURE
OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OR JUST SNOW SHOWERS OVR INLAND/PIEDMONT
COUNTIES. A MAINLY DRY FRONT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO
THU NGT. HI PRES WILL BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI INTO
SAT...THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLC/SE CST FOR SAT AFTN THRU SUN.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S THU...IN THE 40S
FRI...IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S SAT...AND IN THE UPR 40S TO MID
50S SUN. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S THU
MORNG...IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S FRI AND SAT MORNGS...AND IN THE
30S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THIS IS PUSHING
ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE INTO THE MID ATL REGION WHICH WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD THRU THE OVERNIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP THE COAST AND
SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 6Z AND 9Z. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. ALSO
EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SE TO AROUND 10 TO 20 KT
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND START TO
INCREASE IN SPEED. CEILINGS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER PASSAGE OF
THE WARM FRONT AND VFR CONDS ARE LIKELY BY LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS COMES ON WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE ALONG THE COAST SPREADING RAIN AND LOW
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE MAINTAINED GALE WARNGS AND SCA`S FOR THE WTRS FM THIS EVENG
THRU MON. DESPITE WARM AIR OVR COOL WTR TEMPS...WITH A STRONG
PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT...AND LATEST
NAM12 PROGGING 925 MB WINDS ~75 KT...THINK THAT THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST A FEW HRS OF WINDS AOA 34 KT OVR THE OCEAN TNGT INTO EARLY
MON MORNG. SEAS WILL BLD TO 6-9 FT. GUSTS MAY COME CLOSE TO GALE
FORCE OVR THE BAY AS WELL (AT LEAST AT ELEVATED SITES) WHERE
STRONG SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. THE GALE WARNG ENDS LATE
MON MORNG...BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED...AS GUSTS COULD CONTINUE
IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE THRU THE AFTN HRS. THE SCA HEADLINES ALL END
DURING THE DAY MON...AS WINDS DECREASE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRNT
WHICH CROSSES THE WTRS LATE MON NGT/TUE MORNG. IMPROVING MARINE
CONDITIONS THEN INTO TUE WITH WEAK HI PRES OVR THE AREA. STRONG
NNE OR NW WINDS THEN EXPECTED TUE NGT INTO WED NGT...AS LO PRES
TRACKS NWRD JUST OFF THE EAST CST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...TMG/JEF
AVIATION...MAS/JEF
MARINE...TMG
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240530
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1230 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE EAST
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY INDICATES A POTENT TROUGH LIFTING NE INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE
GULF. AT THE SURFACE...~992MB LOW WAS ANALYZED OVER SE MO/W KY...WITH
THE SFC WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND NE
ALONG COASTAL SC AND SE NC.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING SCT SHOWERS LIFTING SW TO NE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING, WITH A SWATH OF MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION...A RESULT OF STRONG VERTICAL LIFT ALONG THE
FRONT...NOTED FROM THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BACK INTO E KY. HV MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP BASED UPON THE LATEST DOWNSCALE NAM
AND HRRR, WHICH SEEM TO BE HANDLING LLVL WINDS AND PCPN TRENDS
WELL THUS FAR THIS EVENING. THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD DUE TO A STRONG NEARLY 70KT LLJ. 12HR
POPS FOR RAIN TONIGHT WILL REMAIN AT 100%. GIVEN LATEST TIMING,
EXPECT WIDESPREAD MOD RAINFALL TO MOVE ACROSS WRN PORTIONS
BY MIDNIGHT TO AROUND 2AM...BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VA BETWEEN 2-4AM AND PUSHING OFFSHORE BY SUNRISE MON
MORNING.

HV MAINTAINED THUNDER MENTION OVER NE NC, AND HV ADDED SE VA AND
LOWER EASTERN SHORE BASED ON LIGHTNING DATA OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS WHICH SEEMS TO MESH WELL WITH CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS,
THOUGH LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER EXPECTED IN THESE
AREAS. SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE CONTINUES FOR NE NC COUNTIES
IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES REMAIN RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE...AND ANY MID- LEVEL DRY AIR
APPEARS TO ARRIVE ONCE THE STRONGEST FORCING EXITS THE REGION...SO
THE SEVERE THREAT IS MINIMAL. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
6HR PRESSURE FALLS OF -6MB TO -10MB PER GFS WILL RESULT IN
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. GUSTS FROM
THE SSE DIRECTION OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE OCCURRING EARLY TONIGHT...WITH READINGS LIKELY
TO RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN MILD/MOIST SLY FLOW AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG FORCING AND SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
SHOULD RESULT IN A ~6HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAIN TONIGHT...WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS AVERAGING 0.5 TO 0.75IN
N-CENTRAL PORTIONS AND 1.00-1.25IN NEAR THE COAST (AND NE NC).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION BY 12Z MON...WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE FAR WRN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUE. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING
EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY INLAND. A GUSTY SW WIND WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S (SEE THE CLIMO
SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS). 20-30% POPS WILL BE CONFINED TO E/SE
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS THE 23/12Z NAM REMAINS AN OUTLIER IN
LINGERING DEEPER MOISTURE.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED INLAND. CLOUDS POTENTIALLY LINGER NEAR THE
COAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE...AND LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TUE. HIGHS TUE
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER MORNING
LOWS FROM THE MID 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE.

23/12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEMONSTRATE AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEAR THE SOUTHEAST CONUS LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT. THIS LOW THEN TRACKS NNE
ALONG THE COAST WED BRINGING RA TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON A BUSY
TRAVEL DAY. OF NOTE THE 23/12Z NAM IS FLATTER AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE...BUT AT THIS TIME THE GFS/ECMWF SCENARIO IS PREFERRED
PER PMDHMD. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SOME WET SN COULD MIX IN AS THE
PCPN TAPERS OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO ANY
ACCUMULATION IS LOW AT THIS TIME...AS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO COOL
THE BOUNDARY LAYER FULLY BY DYNAMICAL COOLING AS ANY CAA IS MINIMAL.
CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE OFF THE 23/00Z GFS SUGGESTS THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SN WILL BE ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES.
CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 30S/LOW
40S INLAND...TO THE MID/UPPER 40S OVER SE PORTIONS...AND THESE WILL
LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. STRONG LO PRES WILL BE JUST OFF THE DE CST AT 00Z
THU...AND WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NNE AND JUST OFF
THE MAINE CST BY 12Z THU. PCPN WILL BE TAPERING OFF OR ENDING FM SW
TO NE WED EVENG INTO EARLY THU MORNG...AND COULD END AS A MIXTURE
OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OR JUST SNOW SHOWERS OVR INLAND/PIEDMONT
COUNTIES. A MAINLY DRY FRONT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO
THU NGT. HI PRES WILL BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI INTO
SAT...THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLC/SE CST FOR SAT AFTN THRU SUN.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S THU...IN THE 40S
FRI...IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S SAT...AND IN THE UPR 40S TO MID
50S SUN. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S THU
MORNG...IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S FRI AND SAT MORNGS...AND IN THE
30S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THIS IS PUSHING
ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE INTO THE MID ATL REGION WHICH WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD THRU THE OVERNIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP THE COAST AND
SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 6Z AND 9Z. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. ALSO
EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SE TO AROUND 10 TO 20 KT
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND START TO
INCREASE IN SPEED. CEILINGS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER PASSAGE OF
THE WARM FRONT AND VFR CONDS ARE LIKELY BY LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS COMES ON WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE ALONG THE COAST SPREADING RAIN AND LOW
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE MAINTAINED GALE WARNGS AND SCA`S FOR THE WTRS FM THIS EVENG
THRU MON. DESPITE WARM AIR OVR COOL WTR TEMPS...WITH A STRONG
PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT...AND LATEST
NAM12 PROGGING 925 MB WINDS ~75 KT...THINK THAT THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST A FEW HRS OF WINDS AOA 34 KT OVR THE OCEAN TNGT INTO EARLY
MON MORNG. SEAS WILL BLD TO 6-9 FT. GUSTS MAY COME CLOSE TO GALE
FORCE OVR THE BAY AS WELL (AT LEAST AT ELEVATED SITES) WHERE
STRONG SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. THE GALE WARNG ENDS LATE
MON MORNG...BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED...AS GUSTS COULD CONTINUE
IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE THRU THE AFTN HRS. THE SCA HEADLINES ALL END
DURING THE DAY MON...AS WINDS DECREASE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRNT
WHICH CROSSES THE WTRS LATE MON NGT/TUE MORNG. IMPROVING MARINE
CONDITIONS THEN INTO TUE WITH WEAK HI PRES OVR THE AREA. STRONG
NNE OR NW WINDS THEN EXPECTED TUE NGT INTO WED NGT...AS LO PRES
TRACKS NWRD JUST OFF THE EAST CST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...TMG/JEF
AVIATION...MAS/JEF
MARINE...TMG
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240530
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1230 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE EAST
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY INDICATES A POTENT TROUGH LIFTING NE INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE
GULF. AT THE SURFACE...~992MB LOW WAS ANALYZED OVER SE MO/W KY...WITH
THE SFC WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND NE
ALONG COASTAL SC AND SE NC.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING SCT SHOWERS LIFTING SW TO NE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING, WITH A SWATH OF MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION...A RESULT OF STRONG VERTICAL LIFT ALONG THE
FRONT...NOTED FROM THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BACK INTO E KY. HV MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP BASED UPON THE LATEST DOWNSCALE NAM
AND HRRR, WHICH SEEM TO BE HANDLING LLVL WINDS AND PCPN TRENDS
WELL THUS FAR THIS EVENING. THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD DUE TO A STRONG NEARLY 70KT LLJ. 12HR
POPS FOR RAIN TONIGHT WILL REMAIN AT 100%. GIVEN LATEST TIMING,
EXPECT WIDESPREAD MOD RAINFALL TO MOVE ACROSS WRN PORTIONS
BY MIDNIGHT TO AROUND 2AM...BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VA BETWEEN 2-4AM AND PUSHING OFFSHORE BY SUNRISE MON
MORNING.

HV MAINTAINED THUNDER MENTION OVER NE NC, AND HV ADDED SE VA AND
LOWER EASTERN SHORE BASED ON LIGHTNING DATA OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS WHICH SEEMS TO MESH WELL WITH CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS,
THOUGH LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER EXPECTED IN THESE
AREAS. SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE CONTINUES FOR NE NC COUNTIES
IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES REMAIN RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE...AND ANY MID- LEVEL DRY AIR
APPEARS TO ARRIVE ONCE THE STRONGEST FORCING EXITS THE REGION...SO
THE SEVERE THREAT IS MINIMAL. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
6HR PRESSURE FALLS OF -6MB TO -10MB PER GFS WILL RESULT IN
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. GUSTS FROM
THE SSE DIRECTION OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE OCCURRING EARLY TONIGHT...WITH READINGS LIKELY
TO RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN MILD/MOIST SLY FLOW AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG FORCING AND SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
SHOULD RESULT IN A ~6HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAIN TONIGHT...WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS AVERAGING 0.5 TO 0.75IN
N-CENTRAL PORTIONS AND 1.00-1.25IN NEAR THE COAST (AND NE NC).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION BY 12Z MON...WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE FAR WRN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUE. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING
EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY INLAND. A GUSTY SW WIND WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S (SEE THE CLIMO
SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS). 20-30% POPS WILL BE CONFINED TO E/SE
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS THE 23/12Z NAM REMAINS AN OUTLIER IN
LINGERING DEEPER MOISTURE.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED INLAND. CLOUDS POTENTIALLY LINGER NEAR THE
COAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE...AND LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TUE. HIGHS TUE
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER MORNING
LOWS FROM THE MID 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE.

23/12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEMONSTRATE AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEAR THE SOUTHEAST CONUS LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT. THIS LOW THEN TRACKS NNE
ALONG THE COAST WED BRINGING RA TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON A BUSY
TRAVEL DAY. OF NOTE THE 23/12Z NAM IS FLATTER AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE...BUT AT THIS TIME THE GFS/ECMWF SCENARIO IS PREFERRED
PER PMDHMD. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SOME WET SN COULD MIX IN AS THE
PCPN TAPERS OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO ANY
ACCUMULATION IS LOW AT THIS TIME...AS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO COOL
THE BOUNDARY LAYER FULLY BY DYNAMICAL COOLING AS ANY CAA IS MINIMAL.
CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE OFF THE 23/00Z GFS SUGGESTS THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SN WILL BE ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES.
CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 30S/LOW
40S INLAND...TO THE MID/UPPER 40S OVER SE PORTIONS...AND THESE WILL
LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. STRONG LO PRES WILL BE JUST OFF THE DE CST AT 00Z
THU...AND WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NNE AND JUST OFF
THE MAINE CST BY 12Z THU. PCPN WILL BE TAPERING OFF OR ENDING FM SW
TO NE WED EVENG INTO EARLY THU MORNG...AND COULD END AS A MIXTURE
OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OR JUST SNOW SHOWERS OVR INLAND/PIEDMONT
COUNTIES. A MAINLY DRY FRONT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO
THU NGT. HI PRES WILL BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI INTO
SAT...THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLC/SE CST FOR SAT AFTN THRU SUN.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S THU...IN THE 40S
FRI...IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S SAT...AND IN THE UPR 40S TO MID
50S SUN. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S THU
MORNG...IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S FRI AND SAT MORNGS...AND IN THE
30S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THIS IS PUSHING
ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE INTO THE MID ATL REGION WHICH WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD THRU THE OVERNIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP THE COAST AND
SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 6Z AND 9Z. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. ALSO
EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SE TO AROUND 10 TO 20 KT
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND START TO
INCREASE IN SPEED. CEILINGS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER PASSAGE OF
THE WARM FRONT AND VFR CONDS ARE LIKELY BY LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS COMES ON WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE ALONG THE COAST SPREADING RAIN AND LOW
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE MAINTAINED GALE WARNGS AND SCA`S FOR THE WTRS FM THIS EVENG
THRU MON. DESPITE WARM AIR OVR COOL WTR TEMPS...WITH A STRONG
PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT...AND LATEST
NAM12 PROGGING 925 MB WINDS ~75 KT...THINK THAT THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST A FEW HRS OF WINDS AOA 34 KT OVR THE OCEAN TNGT INTO EARLY
MON MORNG. SEAS WILL BLD TO 6-9 FT. GUSTS MAY COME CLOSE TO GALE
FORCE OVR THE BAY AS WELL (AT LEAST AT ELEVATED SITES) WHERE
STRONG SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. THE GALE WARNG ENDS LATE
MON MORNG...BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED...AS GUSTS COULD CONTINUE
IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE THRU THE AFTN HRS. THE SCA HEADLINES ALL END
DURING THE DAY MON...AS WINDS DECREASE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRNT
WHICH CROSSES THE WTRS LATE MON NGT/TUE MORNG. IMPROVING MARINE
CONDITIONS THEN INTO TUE WITH WEAK HI PRES OVR THE AREA. STRONG
NNE OR NW WINDS THEN EXPECTED TUE NGT INTO WED NGT...AS LO PRES
TRACKS NWRD JUST OFF THE EAST CST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...TMG/JEF
AVIATION...MAS/JEF
MARINE...TMG
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240530
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1230 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE EAST
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY INDICATES A POTENT TROUGH LIFTING NE INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE
GULF. AT THE SURFACE...~992MB LOW WAS ANALYZED OVER SE MO/W KY...WITH
THE SFC WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND NE
ALONG COASTAL SC AND SE NC.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING SCT SHOWERS LIFTING SW TO NE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING, WITH A SWATH OF MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION...A RESULT OF STRONG VERTICAL LIFT ALONG THE
FRONT...NOTED FROM THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BACK INTO E KY. HV MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP BASED UPON THE LATEST DOWNSCALE NAM
AND HRRR, WHICH SEEM TO BE HANDLING LLVL WINDS AND PCPN TRENDS
WELL THUS FAR THIS EVENING. THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD DUE TO A STRONG NEARLY 70KT LLJ. 12HR
POPS FOR RAIN TONIGHT WILL REMAIN AT 100%. GIVEN LATEST TIMING,
EXPECT WIDESPREAD MOD RAINFALL TO MOVE ACROSS WRN PORTIONS
BY MIDNIGHT TO AROUND 2AM...BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VA BETWEEN 2-4AM AND PUSHING OFFSHORE BY SUNRISE MON
MORNING.

HV MAINTAINED THUNDER MENTION OVER NE NC, AND HV ADDED SE VA AND
LOWER EASTERN SHORE BASED ON LIGHTNING DATA OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS WHICH SEEMS TO MESH WELL WITH CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS,
THOUGH LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER EXPECTED IN THESE
AREAS. SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE CONTINUES FOR NE NC COUNTIES
IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES REMAIN RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE...AND ANY MID- LEVEL DRY AIR
APPEARS TO ARRIVE ONCE THE STRONGEST FORCING EXITS THE REGION...SO
THE SEVERE THREAT IS MINIMAL. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
6HR PRESSURE FALLS OF -6MB TO -10MB PER GFS WILL RESULT IN
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. GUSTS FROM
THE SSE DIRECTION OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE OCCURRING EARLY TONIGHT...WITH READINGS LIKELY
TO RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN MILD/MOIST SLY FLOW AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG FORCING AND SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
SHOULD RESULT IN A ~6HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAIN TONIGHT...WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS AVERAGING 0.5 TO 0.75IN
N-CENTRAL PORTIONS AND 1.00-1.25IN NEAR THE COAST (AND NE NC).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION BY 12Z MON...WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE FAR WRN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUE. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING
EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY INLAND. A GUSTY SW WIND WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S (SEE THE CLIMO
SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS). 20-30% POPS WILL BE CONFINED TO E/SE
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS THE 23/12Z NAM REMAINS AN OUTLIER IN
LINGERING DEEPER MOISTURE.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED INLAND. CLOUDS POTENTIALLY LINGER NEAR THE
COAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE...AND LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TUE. HIGHS TUE
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER MORNING
LOWS FROM THE MID 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE.

23/12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEMONSTRATE AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEAR THE SOUTHEAST CONUS LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT. THIS LOW THEN TRACKS NNE
ALONG THE COAST WED BRINGING RA TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON A BUSY
TRAVEL DAY. OF NOTE THE 23/12Z NAM IS FLATTER AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE...BUT AT THIS TIME THE GFS/ECMWF SCENARIO IS PREFERRED
PER PMDHMD. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SOME WET SN COULD MIX IN AS THE
PCPN TAPERS OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO ANY
ACCUMULATION IS LOW AT THIS TIME...AS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO COOL
THE BOUNDARY LAYER FULLY BY DYNAMICAL COOLING AS ANY CAA IS MINIMAL.
CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE OFF THE 23/00Z GFS SUGGESTS THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SN WILL BE ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES.
CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 30S/LOW
40S INLAND...TO THE MID/UPPER 40S OVER SE PORTIONS...AND THESE WILL
LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. STRONG LO PRES WILL BE JUST OFF THE DE CST AT 00Z
THU...AND WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NNE AND JUST OFF
THE MAINE CST BY 12Z THU. PCPN WILL BE TAPERING OFF OR ENDING FM SW
TO NE WED EVENG INTO EARLY THU MORNG...AND COULD END AS A MIXTURE
OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OR JUST SNOW SHOWERS OVR INLAND/PIEDMONT
COUNTIES. A MAINLY DRY FRONT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO
THU NGT. HI PRES WILL BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI INTO
SAT...THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLC/SE CST FOR SAT AFTN THRU SUN.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S THU...IN THE 40S
FRI...IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S SAT...AND IN THE UPR 40S TO MID
50S SUN. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S THU
MORNG...IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S FRI AND SAT MORNGS...AND IN THE
30S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THIS IS PUSHING
ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE INTO THE MID ATL REGION WHICH WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD THRU THE OVERNIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP THE COAST AND
SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 6Z AND 9Z. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. ALSO
EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SE TO AROUND 10 TO 20 KT
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND START TO
INCREASE IN SPEED. CEILINGS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER PASSAGE OF
THE WARM FRONT AND VFR CONDS ARE LIKELY BY LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS COMES ON WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE ALONG THE COAST SPREADING RAIN AND LOW
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE MAINTAINED GALE WARNGS AND SCA`S FOR THE WTRS FM THIS EVENG
THRU MON. DESPITE WARM AIR OVR COOL WTR TEMPS...WITH A STRONG
PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT...AND LATEST
NAM12 PROGGING 925 MB WINDS ~75 KT...THINK THAT THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST A FEW HRS OF WINDS AOA 34 KT OVR THE OCEAN TNGT INTO EARLY
MON MORNG. SEAS WILL BLD TO 6-9 FT. GUSTS MAY COME CLOSE TO GALE
FORCE OVR THE BAY AS WELL (AT LEAST AT ELEVATED SITES) WHERE
STRONG SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. THE GALE WARNG ENDS LATE
MON MORNG...BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED...AS GUSTS COULD CONTINUE
IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE THRU THE AFTN HRS. THE SCA HEADLINES ALL END
DURING THE DAY MON...AS WINDS DECREASE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRNT
WHICH CROSSES THE WTRS LATE MON NGT/TUE MORNG. IMPROVING MARINE
CONDITIONS THEN INTO TUE WITH WEAK HI PRES OVR THE AREA. STRONG
NNE OR NW WINDS THEN EXPECTED TUE NGT INTO WED NGT...AS LO PRES
TRACKS NWRD JUST OFF THE EAST CST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...TMG/JEF
AVIATION...MAS/JEF
MARINE...TMG
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240247
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
947 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE EAST
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY INDICATES A POTENT TROUGH LIFTING NE INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE
GULF. AT THE SURFACE...~992MB LOW WAS ANALYZED OVER SE MO/W KY...WITH
THE SFC WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND NE
ALONG COASTAL SC AND SE NC.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING SCT SHOWERS LIFTING SW TO NE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING, WITH A SWATH OF MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION...A RESULT OF STRONG VERTICAL LIFT ALONG THE
FRONT...NOTED FROM THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BACK INTO E KY. HV MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP BASED UPON THE LATEST DOWNSCALE NAM
AND HRRR, WHICH SEEM TO BE HANDLING LLVL WINDS AND PCPN TRENDS
WELL THUS FAR THIS EVENING. THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD DUE TO A STRONG NEARLY 70KT LLJ. 12HR
POPS FOR RAIN TONIGHT WILL REMAIN AT 100%. GIVEN LATEST TIMING,
EXPECT WIDESPREAD MOD RAINFALL TO MOVE ACROSS WRN PORTIONS
BY MIDNIGHT TO AROUND 2AM...BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VA BETWEEN 2-4AM AND PUSHING OFFSHORE BY SUNRISE MON
MORNING.

HV MAINTAINED THUNDER MENTION OVER NE NC, AND HV ADDED SE VA AND
LOWER EASTERN SHORE BASED ON LIGHTNING DATA OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS WHICH SEEMS TO MESH WELL WITH CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS,
THOUGH LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER EXPECTED IN THESE
AREAS. SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE CONTINUES FOR NE NC COUNTIES
IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES REMAIN RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE...AND ANY MID- LEVEL DRY AIR
APPEARS TO ARRIVE ONCE THE STRONGEST FORCING EXITS THE REGION...SO
THE SEVERE THREAT IS MINIMAL. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
6HR PRESSURE FALLS OF -6MB TO -10MB PER GFS WILL RESULT IN
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. GUSTS FROM
THE SSE DIRECTION OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE OCCURRING EARLY TONIGHT...WITH READINGS LIKELY
TO RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN MILD/MOIST SLY FLOW AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG FORCING AND SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
SHOULD RESULT IN A ~6HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAIN TONIGHT...WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS AVERAGING 0.5 TO 0.75IN
N-CENTRAL PORTIONS AND 1.00-1.25IN NEAR THE COAST (AND NE NC).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION BY 12Z MON...WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE FAR WRN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUE. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING
EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY INLAND. A GUSTY SW WIND WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S (SEE THE CLIMO
SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS). 20-30% POPS WILL BE CONFINED TO E/SE
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS THE 23/12Z NAM REMAINS AN OUTLIER IN
LINGERING DEEPER MOISTURE.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED INLAND. CLOUDS POTENTIALLY LINGER NEAR THE
COAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE...AND LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TUE. HIGHS TUE
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER MORNING
LOWS FROM THE MID 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE.

23/12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEMONSTRATE AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEAR THE SOUTHEAST CONUS LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT. THIS LOW THEN TRACKS NNE
ALONG THE COAST WED BRINGING RA TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON A BUSY
TRAVEL DAY. OF NOTE THE 23/12Z NAM IS FLATTER AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE...BUT AT THIS TIME THE GFS/ECMWF SCENARIO IS PREFERRED
PER PMDHMD. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SOME WET SN COULD MIX IN AS THE
PCPN TAPERS OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO ANY
ACCUMULATION IS LOW AT THIS TIME...AS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO COOL
THE BOUNDARY LAYER FULLY BY DYNAMICAL COOLING AS ANY CAA IS MINIMAL.
CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE OFF THE 23/00Z GFS SUGGESTS THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SN WILL BE ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES.
CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 30S/LOW
40S INLAND...TO THE MID/UPPER 40S OVER SE PORTIONS...AND THESE WILL
LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. STRONG LO PRES WILL BE JUST OFF THE DE CST AT 00Z
THU...AND WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NNE AND JUST OFF
THE MAINE CST BY 12Z THU. PCPN WILL BE TAPERING OFF OR ENDING FM SW
TO NE WED EVENG INTO EARLY THU MORNG...AND COULD END AS A MIXTURE
OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OR JUST SNOW SHOWERS OVR INLAND/PIEDMONT
COUNTIES. A MAINLY DRY FRONT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO
THU NGT. HI PRES WILL BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI INTO
SAT...THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLC/SE CST FOR SAT AFTN THRU SUN.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S THU...IN THE 40S
FRI...IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S SAT...AND IN THE UPR 40S TO MID
50S SUN. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S THU
MORNG...IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S FRI AND SAT MORNGS...AND IN THE
30S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS IS PUSHING
ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE INTO THE MID ATL REGION WHICH WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD THRU THE OVERNIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP THE COAST AND
SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 6Z AND 9Z. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. ALSO
EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND START TO
INCREASE IN SPEED. CEILINGS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER PASSAGE OF
THE WARM FRONT AND VFR CONDS ARE LIKELY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS COMES ON WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE ALONG THE COAST SPREADING RAIN AND LOW
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE MAINTAINED GALE WARNGS AND SCA`S FOR THE WTRS FM THIS EVENG
THRU MON. DESPITE WARM AIR OVR COOL WTR TEMPS...WITH A STRONG
PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT...AND LATEST
NAM12 PROGGING 925 MB WINDS ~75 KT...THINK THAT THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST A FEW HRS OF WINDS AOA 34 KT OVR THE OCEAN TNGT INTO EARLY
MON MORNG. SEAS WILL BLD TO 6-9 FT. GUSTS MAY COME CLOSE TO GALE
FORCE OVR THE BAY AS WELL (AT LEAST AT ELEVATED SITES) WHERE
STRONG SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. THE GALE WARNG ENDS LATE
MON MORNG...BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED...AS GUSTS COULD CONTINUE
IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE THRU THE AFTN HRS. THE SCA HEADLINES ALL END
DURING THE DAY MON...AS WINDS DECREASE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRNT
WHICH CROSSES THE WTRS LATE MON NGT/TUE MORNG. IMPROVING MARINE
CONDITIONS THEN INTO TUE WITH WEAK HI PRES OVR THE AREA. STRONG
NNE OR NW WINDS THEN EXPECTED TUE NGT INTO WED NGT...AS LO PRES
TRACKS NWRD JUST OFF THE EAST CST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ633-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ630>632.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...TMG/JEF
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...TMG
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240247
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
947 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE EAST
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY INDICATES A POTENT TROUGH LIFTING NE INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE
GULF. AT THE SURFACE...~992MB LOW WAS ANALYZED OVER SE MO/W KY...WITH
THE SFC WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND NE
ALONG COASTAL SC AND SE NC.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING SCT SHOWERS LIFTING SW TO NE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING, WITH A SWATH OF MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION...A RESULT OF STRONG VERTICAL LIFT ALONG THE
FRONT...NOTED FROM THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BACK INTO E KY. HV MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP BASED UPON THE LATEST DOWNSCALE NAM
AND HRRR, WHICH SEEM TO BE HANDLING LLVL WINDS AND PCPN TRENDS
WELL THUS FAR THIS EVENING. THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD DUE TO A STRONG NEARLY 70KT LLJ. 12HR
POPS FOR RAIN TONIGHT WILL REMAIN AT 100%. GIVEN LATEST TIMING,
EXPECT WIDESPREAD MOD RAINFALL TO MOVE ACROSS WRN PORTIONS
BY MIDNIGHT TO AROUND 2AM...BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VA BETWEEN 2-4AM AND PUSHING OFFSHORE BY SUNRISE MON
MORNING.

HV MAINTAINED THUNDER MENTION OVER NE NC, AND HV ADDED SE VA AND
LOWER EASTERN SHORE BASED ON LIGHTNING DATA OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS WHICH SEEMS TO MESH WELL WITH CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS,
THOUGH LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER EXPECTED IN THESE
AREAS. SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE CONTINUES FOR NE NC COUNTIES
IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES REMAIN RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE...AND ANY MID- LEVEL DRY AIR
APPEARS TO ARRIVE ONCE THE STRONGEST FORCING EXITS THE REGION...SO
THE SEVERE THREAT IS MINIMAL. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
6HR PRESSURE FALLS OF -6MB TO -10MB PER GFS WILL RESULT IN
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. GUSTS FROM
THE SSE DIRECTION OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE OCCURRING EARLY TONIGHT...WITH READINGS LIKELY
TO RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN MILD/MOIST SLY FLOW AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG FORCING AND SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
SHOULD RESULT IN A ~6HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAIN TONIGHT...WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS AVERAGING 0.5 TO 0.75IN
N-CENTRAL PORTIONS AND 1.00-1.25IN NEAR THE COAST (AND NE NC).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION BY 12Z MON...WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE FAR WRN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUE. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING
EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY INLAND. A GUSTY SW WIND WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S (SEE THE CLIMO
SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS). 20-30% POPS WILL BE CONFINED TO E/SE
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS THE 23/12Z NAM REMAINS AN OUTLIER IN
LINGERING DEEPER MOISTURE.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED INLAND. CLOUDS POTENTIALLY LINGER NEAR THE
COAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE...AND LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TUE. HIGHS TUE
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER MORNING
LOWS FROM THE MID 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE.

23/12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEMONSTRATE AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEAR THE SOUTHEAST CONUS LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT. THIS LOW THEN TRACKS NNE
ALONG THE COAST WED BRINGING RA TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON A BUSY
TRAVEL DAY. OF NOTE THE 23/12Z NAM IS FLATTER AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE...BUT AT THIS TIME THE GFS/ECMWF SCENARIO IS PREFERRED
PER PMDHMD. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SOME WET SN COULD MIX IN AS THE
PCPN TAPERS OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO ANY
ACCUMULATION IS LOW AT THIS TIME...AS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO COOL
THE BOUNDARY LAYER FULLY BY DYNAMICAL COOLING AS ANY CAA IS MINIMAL.
CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE OFF THE 23/00Z GFS SUGGESTS THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SN WILL BE ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES.
CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 30S/LOW
40S INLAND...TO THE MID/UPPER 40S OVER SE PORTIONS...AND THESE WILL
LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. STRONG LO PRES WILL BE JUST OFF THE DE CST AT 00Z
THU...AND WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NNE AND JUST OFF
THE MAINE CST BY 12Z THU. PCPN WILL BE TAPERING OFF OR ENDING FM SW
TO NE WED EVENG INTO EARLY THU MORNG...AND COULD END AS A MIXTURE
OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OR JUST SNOW SHOWERS OVR INLAND/PIEDMONT
COUNTIES. A MAINLY DRY FRONT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO
THU NGT. HI PRES WILL BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI INTO
SAT...THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLC/SE CST FOR SAT AFTN THRU SUN.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S THU...IN THE 40S
FRI...IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S SAT...AND IN THE UPR 40S TO MID
50S SUN. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S THU
MORNG...IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S FRI AND SAT MORNGS...AND IN THE
30S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS IS PUSHING
ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE INTO THE MID ATL REGION WHICH WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD THRU THE OVERNIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP THE COAST AND
SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 6Z AND 9Z. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. ALSO
EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND START TO
INCREASE IN SPEED. CEILINGS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER PASSAGE OF
THE WARM FRONT AND VFR CONDS ARE LIKELY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS COMES ON WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE ALONG THE COAST SPREADING RAIN AND LOW
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE MAINTAINED GALE WARNGS AND SCA`S FOR THE WTRS FM THIS EVENG
THRU MON. DESPITE WARM AIR OVR COOL WTR TEMPS...WITH A STRONG
PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT...AND LATEST
NAM12 PROGGING 925 MB WINDS ~75 KT...THINK THAT THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST A FEW HRS OF WINDS AOA 34 KT OVR THE OCEAN TNGT INTO EARLY
MON MORNG. SEAS WILL BLD TO 6-9 FT. GUSTS MAY COME CLOSE TO GALE
FORCE OVR THE BAY AS WELL (AT LEAST AT ELEVATED SITES) WHERE
STRONG SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. THE GALE WARNG ENDS LATE
MON MORNG...BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED...AS GUSTS COULD CONTINUE
IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE THRU THE AFTN HRS. THE SCA HEADLINES ALL END
DURING THE DAY MON...AS WINDS DECREASE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRNT
WHICH CROSSES THE WTRS LATE MON NGT/TUE MORNG. IMPROVING MARINE
CONDITIONS THEN INTO TUE WITH WEAK HI PRES OVR THE AREA. STRONG
NNE OR NW WINDS THEN EXPECTED TUE NGT INTO WED NGT...AS LO PRES
TRACKS NWRD JUST OFF THE EAST CST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ633-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ630>632.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...TMG/JEF
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...TMG
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240247
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
947 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE EAST
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY INDICATES A POTENT TROUGH LIFTING NE INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE
GULF. AT THE SURFACE...~992MB LOW WAS ANALYZED OVER SE MO/W KY...WITH
THE SFC WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND NE
ALONG COASTAL SC AND SE NC.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING SCT SHOWERS LIFTING SW TO NE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING, WITH A SWATH OF MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION...A RESULT OF STRONG VERTICAL LIFT ALONG THE
FRONT...NOTED FROM THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BACK INTO E KY. HV MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP BASED UPON THE LATEST DOWNSCALE NAM
AND HRRR, WHICH SEEM TO BE HANDLING LLVL WINDS AND PCPN TRENDS
WELL THUS FAR THIS EVENING. THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD DUE TO A STRONG NEARLY 70KT LLJ. 12HR
POPS FOR RAIN TONIGHT WILL REMAIN AT 100%. GIVEN LATEST TIMING,
EXPECT WIDESPREAD MOD RAINFALL TO MOVE ACROSS WRN PORTIONS
BY MIDNIGHT TO AROUND 2AM...BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VA BETWEEN 2-4AM AND PUSHING OFFSHORE BY SUNRISE MON
MORNING.

HV MAINTAINED THUNDER MENTION OVER NE NC, AND HV ADDED SE VA AND
LOWER EASTERN SHORE BASED ON LIGHTNING DATA OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS WHICH SEEMS TO MESH WELL WITH CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS,
THOUGH LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER EXPECTED IN THESE
AREAS. SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE CONTINUES FOR NE NC COUNTIES
IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES REMAIN RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE...AND ANY MID- LEVEL DRY AIR
APPEARS TO ARRIVE ONCE THE STRONGEST FORCING EXITS THE REGION...SO
THE SEVERE THREAT IS MINIMAL. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
6HR PRESSURE FALLS OF -6MB TO -10MB PER GFS WILL RESULT IN
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. GUSTS FROM
THE SSE DIRECTION OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE OCCURRING EARLY TONIGHT...WITH READINGS LIKELY
TO RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN MILD/MOIST SLY FLOW AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG FORCING AND SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
SHOULD RESULT IN A ~6HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAIN TONIGHT...WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS AVERAGING 0.5 TO 0.75IN
N-CENTRAL PORTIONS AND 1.00-1.25IN NEAR THE COAST (AND NE NC).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION BY 12Z MON...WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE FAR WRN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUE. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING
EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY INLAND. A GUSTY SW WIND WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S (SEE THE CLIMO
SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS). 20-30% POPS WILL BE CONFINED TO E/SE
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS THE 23/12Z NAM REMAINS AN OUTLIER IN
LINGERING DEEPER MOISTURE.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED INLAND. CLOUDS POTENTIALLY LINGER NEAR THE
COAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE...AND LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TUE. HIGHS TUE
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER MORNING
LOWS FROM THE MID 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE.

23/12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEMONSTRATE AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEAR THE SOUTHEAST CONUS LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT. THIS LOW THEN TRACKS NNE
ALONG THE COAST WED BRINGING RA TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON A BUSY
TRAVEL DAY. OF NOTE THE 23/12Z NAM IS FLATTER AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE...BUT AT THIS TIME THE GFS/ECMWF SCENARIO IS PREFERRED
PER PMDHMD. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SOME WET SN COULD MIX IN AS THE
PCPN TAPERS OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO ANY
ACCUMULATION IS LOW AT THIS TIME...AS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO COOL
THE BOUNDARY LAYER FULLY BY DYNAMICAL COOLING AS ANY CAA IS MINIMAL.
CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE OFF THE 23/00Z GFS SUGGESTS THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SN WILL BE ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES.
CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 30S/LOW
40S INLAND...TO THE MID/UPPER 40S OVER SE PORTIONS...AND THESE WILL
LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. STRONG LO PRES WILL BE JUST OFF THE DE CST AT 00Z
THU...AND WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NNE AND JUST OFF
THE MAINE CST BY 12Z THU. PCPN WILL BE TAPERING OFF OR ENDING FM SW
TO NE WED EVENG INTO EARLY THU MORNG...AND COULD END AS A MIXTURE
OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OR JUST SNOW SHOWERS OVR INLAND/PIEDMONT
COUNTIES. A MAINLY DRY FRONT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO
THU NGT. HI PRES WILL BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI INTO
SAT...THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLC/SE CST FOR SAT AFTN THRU SUN.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S THU...IN THE 40S
FRI...IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S SAT...AND IN THE UPR 40S TO MID
50S SUN. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S THU
MORNG...IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S FRI AND SAT MORNGS...AND IN THE
30S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS IS PUSHING
ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE INTO THE MID ATL REGION WHICH WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD THRU THE OVERNIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP THE COAST AND
SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 6Z AND 9Z. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. ALSO
EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND START TO
INCREASE IN SPEED. CEILINGS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER PASSAGE OF
THE WARM FRONT AND VFR CONDS ARE LIKELY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS COMES ON WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE ALONG THE COAST SPREADING RAIN AND LOW
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE MAINTAINED GALE WARNGS AND SCA`S FOR THE WTRS FM THIS EVENG
THRU MON. DESPITE WARM AIR OVR COOL WTR TEMPS...WITH A STRONG
PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT...AND LATEST
NAM12 PROGGING 925 MB WINDS ~75 KT...THINK THAT THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST A FEW HRS OF WINDS AOA 34 KT OVR THE OCEAN TNGT INTO EARLY
MON MORNG. SEAS WILL BLD TO 6-9 FT. GUSTS MAY COME CLOSE TO GALE
FORCE OVR THE BAY AS WELL (AT LEAST AT ELEVATED SITES) WHERE
STRONG SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. THE GALE WARNG ENDS LATE
MON MORNG...BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED...AS GUSTS COULD CONTINUE
IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE THRU THE AFTN HRS. THE SCA HEADLINES ALL END
DURING THE DAY MON...AS WINDS DECREASE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRNT
WHICH CROSSES THE WTRS LATE MON NGT/TUE MORNG. IMPROVING MARINE
CONDITIONS THEN INTO TUE WITH WEAK HI PRES OVR THE AREA. STRONG
NNE OR NW WINDS THEN EXPECTED TUE NGT INTO WED NGT...AS LO PRES
TRACKS NWRD JUST OFF THE EAST CST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ633-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ630>632.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...TMG/JEF
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...TMG
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240247
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
947 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE EAST
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY INDICATES A POTENT TROUGH LIFTING NE INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE
GULF. AT THE SURFACE...~992MB LOW WAS ANALYZED OVER SE MO/W KY...WITH
THE SFC WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND NE
ALONG COASTAL SC AND SE NC.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING SCT SHOWERS LIFTING SW TO NE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING, WITH A SWATH OF MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION...A RESULT OF STRONG VERTICAL LIFT ALONG THE
FRONT...NOTED FROM THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BACK INTO E KY. HV MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP BASED UPON THE LATEST DOWNSCALE NAM
AND HRRR, WHICH SEEM TO BE HANDLING LLVL WINDS AND PCPN TRENDS
WELL THUS FAR THIS EVENING. THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD DUE TO A STRONG NEARLY 70KT LLJ. 12HR
POPS FOR RAIN TONIGHT WILL REMAIN AT 100%. GIVEN LATEST TIMING,
EXPECT WIDESPREAD MOD RAINFALL TO MOVE ACROSS WRN PORTIONS
BY MIDNIGHT TO AROUND 2AM...BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VA BETWEEN 2-4AM AND PUSHING OFFSHORE BY SUNRISE MON
MORNING.

HV MAINTAINED THUNDER MENTION OVER NE NC, AND HV ADDED SE VA AND
LOWER EASTERN SHORE BASED ON LIGHTNING DATA OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS WHICH SEEMS TO MESH WELL WITH CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS,
THOUGH LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER EXPECTED IN THESE
AREAS. SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE CONTINUES FOR NE NC COUNTIES
IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES REMAIN RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE...AND ANY MID- LEVEL DRY AIR
APPEARS TO ARRIVE ONCE THE STRONGEST FORCING EXITS THE REGION...SO
THE SEVERE THREAT IS MINIMAL. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
6HR PRESSURE FALLS OF -6MB TO -10MB PER GFS WILL RESULT IN
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. GUSTS FROM
THE SSE DIRECTION OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE OCCURRING EARLY TONIGHT...WITH READINGS LIKELY
TO RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN MILD/MOIST SLY FLOW AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG FORCING AND SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
SHOULD RESULT IN A ~6HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAIN TONIGHT...WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS AVERAGING 0.5 TO 0.75IN
N-CENTRAL PORTIONS AND 1.00-1.25IN NEAR THE COAST (AND NE NC).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION BY 12Z MON...WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE FAR WRN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUE. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING
EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY INLAND. A GUSTY SW WIND WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S (SEE THE CLIMO
SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS). 20-30% POPS WILL BE CONFINED TO E/SE
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS THE 23/12Z NAM REMAINS AN OUTLIER IN
LINGERING DEEPER MOISTURE.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED INLAND. CLOUDS POTENTIALLY LINGER NEAR THE
COAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE...AND LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TUE. HIGHS TUE
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER MORNING
LOWS FROM THE MID 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE.

23/12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEMONSTRATE AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEAR THE SOUTHEAST CONUS LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT. THIS LOW THEN TRACKS NNE
ALONG THE COAST WED BRINGING RA TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON A BUSY
TRAVEL DAY. OF NOTE THE 23/12Z NAM IS FLATTER AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE...BUT AT THIS TIME THE GFS/ECMWF SCENARIO IS PREFERRED
PER PMDHMD. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SOME WET SN COULD MIX IN AS THE
PCPN TAPERS OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO ANY
ACCUMULATION IS LOW AT THIS TIME...AS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO COOL
THE BOUNDARY LAYER FULLY BY DYNAMICAL COOLING AS ANY CAA IS MINIMAL.
CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE OFF THE 23/00Z GFS SUGGESTS THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SN WILL BE ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES.
CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 30S/LOW
40S INLAND...TO THE MID/UPPER 40S OVER SE PORTIONS...AND THESE WILL
LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. STRONG LO PRES WILL BE JUST OFF THE DE CST AT 00Z
THU...AND WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NNE AND JUST OFF
THE MAINE CST BY 12Z THU. PCPN WILL BE TAPERING OFF OR ENDING FM SW
TO NE WED EVENG INTO EARLY THU MORNG...AND COULD END AS A MIXTURE
OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OR JUST SNOW SHOWERS OVR INLAND/PIEDMONT
COUNTIES. A MAINLY DRY FRONT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO
THU NGT. HI PRES WILL BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI INTO
SAT...THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLC/SE CST FOR SAT AFTN THRU SUN.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S THU...IN THE 40S
FRI...IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S SAT...AND IN THE UPR 40S TO MID
50S SUN. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S THU
MORNG...IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S FRI AND SAT MORNGS...AND IN THE
30S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS IS PUSHING
ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE INTO THE MID ATL REGION WHICH WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD THRU THE OVERNIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP THE COAST AND
SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 6Z AND 9Z. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. ALSO
EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND START TO
INCREASE IN SPEED. CEILINGS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER PASSAGE OF
THE WARM FRONT AND VFR CONDS ARE LIKELY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS COMES ON WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE ALONG THE COAST SPREADING RAIN AND LOW
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE MAINTAINED GALE WARNGS AND SCA`S FOR THE WTRS FM THIS EVENG
THRU MON. DESPITE WARM AIR OVR COOL WTR TEMPS...WITH A STRONG
PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT...AND LATEST
NAM12 PROGGING 925 MB WINDS ~75 KT...THINK THAT THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST A FEW HRS OF WINDS AOA 34 KT OVR THE OCEAN TNGT INTO EARLY
MON MORNG. SEAS WILL BLD TO 6-9 FT. GUSTS MAY COME CLOSE TO GALE
FORCE OVR THE BAY AS WELL (AT LEAST AT ELEVATED SITES) WHERE
STRONG SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. THE GALE WARNG ENDS LATE
MON MORNG...BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED...AS GUSTS COULD CONTINUE
IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE THRU THE AFTN HRS. THE SCA HEADLINES ALL END
DURING THE DAY MON...AS WINDS DECREASE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRNT
WHICH CROSSES THE WTRS LATE MON NGT/TUE MORNG. IMPROVING MARINE
CONDITIONS THEN INTO TUE WITH WEAK HI PRES OVR THE AREA. STRONG
NNE OR NW WINDS THEN EXPECTED TUE NGT INTO WED NGT...AS LO PRES
TRACKS NWRD JUST OFF THE EAST CST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ633-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ630>632.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...TMG/JEF
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...TMG
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 240228
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
928 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE IN MISSOURI WILL ARRIVE IN THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES MONDAY YANKING A STRONG WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH OUR REGION
EARLY MONDAY. IT THEN SWEEPS A COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST MONDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATE TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM FORMING
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING MOVES EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND BY THANKSGIVING. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA
THURSDAY EVENING AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE CAROLINAS NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE NEEDED WITH THE UPDATE THIS EVENING, JUST SLOWED
THE TIMING OF THE POPS A BIT WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE.
STARTING TO SEE SOME OVER-RUNNING RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN DELMARVA
WHILE THE HEAVIEST RAIN REMAINS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST.

OTHERWISE, A POTENT SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL EVOLVE THROUGH TONIGHT.
THIS INVOLVES A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL AMPLIFY FROM
THE MIDWEST TO THE GULF COAST STATES, WHICH DRIVES A DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE, A
BUILDING RIDGE NEAR THE EAST COAST WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH ITS
CENTER MAINLY EAST OF FLORIDA.

THE STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST TONIGHT IS A
RESULT OF A POTENT 250 MB JET CARVING IT OUT. AS THIS OCCURS, THE
HEIGHT FIELDS TIGHTEN QUITE A BIT ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST AND SOUTH
SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS WILL DRIVE AN INCREASINGLY ROBUST WIND
FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE COURSE OF TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS,
SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN COMBINATION WITH STRENGTHENING WAA WILL DRIVE
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS OUR AREA. AS A RESULT, ABOUT A
4-6 HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SURGE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. AS THE THETA-E
ADVECTION REALLY RAMPS UP THIS EVENING, THE LOW-LEVEL DEW POINTS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND THIS WILL LEAD TO A JUMP IN PW VALUES.
THEREFORE, SOME OF THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WHICH
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. WE THEREFORE
CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE THE POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS
EVENING WITH CATEGORICAL POPS EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY FORECAST TO ARRIVE ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES ESPECIALLY LATE, AND THIS COULD PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.

AS THE FLOW INCREASES ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THE INJECTION OF A WARM
AIRMASS WORKS IN ACROSS THE AREA, WE SHOULD START TO MIX BETTER
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 AND IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS ALONG WITH WAA WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR
CWA. AS A RESULT, WE CONTINUED TO INDICATE RISING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. BY DAYBREAK, SOME EAST AND SOUTHERN AREAS MAY
BE INTO THE LOWER 60S. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE BETTER
MOMENTUM TRANSFER DEVELOPING LATE ESPECIALLY THE FARTHER SOUTHEAST
ONE GOES ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER GIVEN THE WAA PATTERN THERE SHOULD
BE A DECENT INVERSION PRESENT DURING THE NIGHT EVEN WITH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING. AS A RESULT, THE DEPTH OF THE MIXED LAYER
SHOULD NOT ALLOW THE TRANSFER OF THE RATHER ROBUST WINDS WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL JET DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THERE IS A CHC SOME FOG DEVELOPS
LATE ESPECIALLY AS THE WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR SURGES IN.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, MOSTLY A NAM/GFS MOS BLEND WAS USED AND
THESE WERE SET TO OCCUR THIS EVENING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A
TEMPERATURE RISE WAS THEN INDICATED THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
RECORD WARMTH CERTAINLY POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA.

A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR WEST, AND THIS
WILL DRIVE A POTENT SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARD
HUDSON BAY. THIS PLACES OUR AREA WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO ITS EAST. THE MAIN LOW-LEVEL JET AND LARGE
SCALE LIFT AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL FORCING IS FORECAST TO
QUICKLY SHIFT TO OUR NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS, A
DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS OUR AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAIN TAPERING TO
SOME SHOWERS AND ENDING FAIRLY QUICKLY IN THE MORNING FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST. THEREFORE, THE POPS DECREASE RATHER QUICKLY DURING THE
MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HANGING ON FOR A
LITTLE WHILE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS AND ALONG THE COAST, HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS. AFTER THAT, THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT DRYING OCCURS ALOFT FIRST ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRY
SLOT, HOWEVER WITH OUR AREA BEING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND STILL
STRONG WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE WE SHOULD MIX OUT MUCH OF THE LOWER
CLOUDS. WHILE A FEW SHOWERS COULD BE AROUND DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON, THE SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SHOW A MID LEVEL CAP
DEVELOPING ALONG WITH THE DRYING. THEREFORE, THIS MAY LIMIT ANY
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FOR AWHILE DESPITE SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT. THIS
BRINGS US TO THE WARMTH AND WINDS.

THE TEMPERATURES AT 925 MB ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND +15C DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AS WE LOSE THE LOWER
CLOUDS AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS, MIXING WILL DEEPEN. THIS WILL
BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. IF WE
CLEAR OUT MORE, THEN TEMPERATURES COULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. FOR NOW, USED A MOS BLEND BUT DID ADJUST UP SOME
ESPECIALLY FOR THE INTERSTATE 95 AREA ON SOUTH AND EAST.

AS FOR THE SURFACE WINDS MONDAY, WHILE THE INTENSE LOW-LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST TO BE SHIFTING TO OUR NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY, THE WIND
FIELD AT 925 MB IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40-50 KNOT RANGE. THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW BETTER MIXING BECOMING ESTABLISHED AND IF WE
WARM THE BOUNDARY EVEN MORE THIS DEPTH WOULD INCREASE SOME. IT STILL
APPEARS THOUGH THAT WE DO NOT MIX UP FULLY TO THE STRONGEST WINDS,
AND THEREFORE WE CARRY GUSTS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WE DID LEAN
CLOSER TO THE GFS WINDS WHICH ARE A LITTLE STRONGER AT THE SURFACE
AND BOOSTED THE GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
**WINTER STORM-EVENT VICINITY I-95 CORRIDOR WESTWARD WEDNESDAY**

500MB: THE STRONG SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES STORM
LIFTS NEWD INTO QUEBEC MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT TROUGH IS ON A MORE
SOUTHERLY ROUTE AND CROSSES THE EAST COAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH MORE COHERENCE IN ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS THAN PRESENTED 24 HOURS
AGO. HEIGHTS RISE TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND BUT A GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES DIFFICULT
TO DISCERN IN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN.

TEMPERATURES: TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER HAVE SO FAR
AVERAGED 4 TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH YESTERDAY THE 10TH
CONSECUTIVE DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A BRIEF HIATUS FROM
THE COLD IS AT HAND BUT EVEN SO...THE MONTH AS A WHOLE PROJECTS TO
AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL. DID A QUICK EXTRAPOLATION OF MAX/MIN
FOR THE REST OF THE MONTH BASED OUR OFFICE FORECAST AND WE ARE
PROJECTING 2.5 TO 3.5 DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY AVG OF 47.6 DEGREES.

CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES TUESDAY SHOULD BE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL (1201AM TUESDAY MORNING HIGHS COULD BE 60-63F PHL EASTWARD),
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY 6
TO 14 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DEPENDING WHEN THE PCPN BEGINS. THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL AND NEXT SUNDAY IN MAY WARM MORE THAN WE HAVE FORECAST.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/23 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN THE 12Z/23 GFS
MOS WAS NOT APPLIED WEDNESDAY...IT LOOKS TOO WARM BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES).
THEREAFTER (THURSDAY ONWARD) THE 1522Z/23 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE
WAS USED STRAIGHT UP. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED AGAINST THE
12Z/23 ECMWF THROUGH THURSDAY TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK
WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES.
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/23
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. THE SREF ALSO HAS
SIGNIFICANT PROBABILITIES FOR 1 AND 4 INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BY 7PM
WEDNESDAY I95 CORRIDOR WESTWARD BUT COULD BE BIASED TOO COLD! THE
12Z/23 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05 ARE USED AFTER 00Z/THURSDAY AS A
CHECK AGAINST OTHER AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

THE DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CHANCE OF A LOW TOP SHOWER OR SPRINKLE.
OTHERWISE CLEARING AND MAYBE A BIT BREEZY (WEST WIND GUSTS 20 MPH
FOR A TIME) AFTER THE EVENING CFP WHEN WE SEE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WIND FORECAST INCREASES AROUND 03-06Z. STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING WHEN TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 60S. GUIDANCE TEMPS: USED THE WARMER OF THE AVBL TEMP
GUIDANCE AND BLENDED WITH THE EVEN WARMER 2M NAM TEMPS AT 00Z AND
03Z/25 (PRIOR TO CFP).

TUESDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY (FIRST CIRRUS FROM GULF
COAST SHORT WAVE MOVING EASTWARD VCNTY TEX/LA AND ALSO RRQ STRONG
250MB JET OF 200 KT /230 MPH/ NEAR L ONTARIO). FOR THE SURFACE...AM
EXPECTING WESTERLY WIND GUSTS 25 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING CLOUDY WITH LIGHT WIND. SEASONABLE TEMPS.
LIGHT RAIN SPREADS UP ONTO THE DELMARVA AND POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY
TO PHL BY 12Z TUESDAY.


WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OUR MODEL OF CHOICE LEANS HEAVILY ON THE
ECMWF WITH GFS WPC AND SREF MIX. A COASTAL STORM DEEPENS A MB PER
HOUR AS IT RACES NEWD EAST OF THE MID ATLC COAST. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT AIDED BY RRQ OF 200KT 250MB JET OVER THE GULF OF ST
LAWRENCE.

ONE QUARTER TO 1.25 INCH AMOUNTS EXPECTED...HEAVIEST PROBABLY IN NJ.

SNOW MAP POSTED ALONG WITH BRIEFING PACKAGE TO GIVE OUR FIRST
EFFORT AT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE ADJUSTMENTS. THINKING THAT THIS FORECAST CAN
EASILY BE IN ERROR 3 INCHES EITHER SIDE OF WHAT IS POSTED ON OUR
WEB SITE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE ON SNOW AMOUNTS REACHING THE POSTED VALUES IS HIGHEST
FROM READING PA THROUGH THE POCONOS INTO FAR NW NJ. CONFIDENCE
LESSENS SOUTHEASTWARD.

NO MATTER...THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF SNOW IMPACTING TRAVEL
SOMETIME WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY JUST WEST OF
I-95. THE 12Z/23 ECMWF IS THE WARMEST MODEL WITH THE GFS COLDER
BUT ALSO PROBABLY TOO FAR EAST. THE EC HAS A DEFINITE ABOVE
FREEZING LAYER BETWEEN 850 AND 700MB. THE GFS NOT.

SNOW/RAIN: I-95 CORRIDOR OR 30 MILES NORTHWEST LOOKS TO BE GENERAL
DEMARCATION BETWEEN MOSTLY SNOW AND MOSTLY RAIN. DEPENDING ON YOUR
MODEL SELECTED AND THERE WILL BE ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED...IT COULD BE
RAIN-SNOW CHANGING TO ALL RAIN THEN ENDING AS SNOW FOR I95; MOSTLY
SNOW FURTHER WEST AND NORTH THROUGH EASTERN PA AND NW NJ.
ELEVATIONS WILL ACCUMULATE BEST WHERE ITS COLDER.

TEMPS FOR THE WEDNESDAY FCST ARE THE 330 AM PHI FCST BLENDED 50 50
WITH THE 00Z-12Z/23 ECMWF 2M TEMPS AND DID NOT USE THE 12Z/23 MEXMOS
TEMPS WHICH LOOKED 3 TO 6 DEGREES TOO WARM. MAX TEMPS APPEAR TO BE
OCCURRING FORENOON BEFORE PCPN WET BULBS COLDER READINGS DURING THE
AFTN.

TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE AT OR JUST ABOVE THE 12Z/23 GFS MEXMOS
VALUES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE WPC TEMPS.

THOSE LOOKING AT THE MODELS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT GUIDANCE DOES NOT
HANDLE SNOW COOLING THE SFC TEMPERATURES AND THE COLUMN WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW NOT TOO FAR WEST OF PHL WITH ONLY THE LOWEST
1000 FEET AIR TEMP STRUCTURE DETERMINING THE SURFACE PTYPE.

THE LARGER ACCUMS FOR THIS EVENT ALONG I-95 MAY BE RESERVED FOR THE
EVENING AS PCPN PROBABLY CHANGES TO ALL SNOW.

SE OF I95...WHICH INCLUDES MOST OF MD E SHORE AND DELAWARE AND
COASTAL NJ...MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED. IT COULD END AS A PERIOD OF
WET SNOW OR FLURRIES... ALL DEPENDENT ON BANDING TAIL (500 MB VORT
MAX TRACK/STRENGTH).

THURSDAY...A SECONDARY TROUGH PASSAGE...SFC COLD FRONT WITH
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE (WINDEX?) MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW
SHOWERS NW OF I95. FOR NOW ONLY GRIDDED IN THE POCONOS.

FRIDAY- SUNDAY...WPC GUIDANCE AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE
CAROLINAS. LOWS TEMPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING MIGHT BE AROUND
8 DEGREES COLDER THAN FORECAST NORTH OF I78 IF THERE IS SNOW
COVER (10 TO 15F).

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CURRENT THINKING/TIMING WITH THE 00Z
TAFS, THOUGH A DELAYED ONSET OF MVFR IS POSSIBLE BY AN HOUR OR TWO
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

TONIGHT...VFR TO START, THEN CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
LOWER TO MVFR AND IFR /LOCAL LIFR/ AS A WARM FRONT ARRIVES. A
PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
HEAVY AT TIMES. THIS WILL ALSO REDUCE THE VISIBILITIES, WITH EVEN
SOME FOG POSSIBLE LATE ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST AND FROM NEAR
KABE ON NORTHWARD. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT AROUND 5 KNOTS WILL
INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND COULD BECOME GUSTY AT
TIMES. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE FROM NEAR THE KPHL METRO ON
SOUTH AND EAST. THE AMOUNT OF GUSTINESS THAT OCCURS LATE CARRIES
LOWER CONFIDENCE. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT
LATE MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KPHL. A POTENT LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA, AND THEREFORE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS INCLUDED
FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...MVFR/IFR /LOCAL LIFR/ CEILINGS FOR A TIME IN THE MORNING,
THEN CEILINGS SHOULD RISE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON AS A MUCH WARMER
AIRMASS IS IN PLACE. IT IS POSSIBLE THOUGH THAT SOME LOW CLOUDS
LINGER LONGER ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST AND NORTH OF KTTN AND
KABE. RAIN DEPARTS EARLY, HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WILL
BE POSSIBLE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 KNOTS. THE CORE OF LOW-LEVEL JET SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE
DURING THE DAY, THEREFORE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE
DURING THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. WESTERLY WINDS MAY BRIEFLY
GUST 20-25 KT MONDAY NIGHT SUBSEQUENT TO A CFP THAT COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A SPRINKLE. WEST WINDS SHOULD GUST 25 KT ON TUESDAY
THEN DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THEY TURN NORTH
TO NORTHWEST. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THIS SCENARIO.

WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL STORM WILL BRING MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS IN
RAIN COAST (KACY/KMIV), RAIN SNOW KTTN KPNE KTPHL AND KILG AND
MOSTLY SNOW KABE AND KRDG. IN ADDITION, EXPECT PERSISTENT NORTHERLY
OR NORTHEASTERLY WINDS FOR GENERALLY THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY
WITH GUSTS 12-25 KT FROM WEST TO EAST. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END AS
SNOW MOST TAF SITES AT NIGHT EXCEPT POSSIBLY NOT AT KMIV/KACY.

SIGNIFICANT PAVEMENT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE KRDG/KABE ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THANKSGIVING...CONDITIONS SLOWLY RETURN TO VFR AND WINDS SHIFT TO
WESTERLY OR NORTHWEST. THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CONDS IN SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY MAINLY JUST N OF KRDG AND KABE. WINDS MAY
GUST TO 25 KT.

FRIDAY...PROBABLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR WEST LATER TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT ALONG
WITH AN INCREASINGLY ROBUST WIND FIELD. THE 925 MB WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 50-70 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT, THEN DECREASE
TO ABOUT 40-50 KNOTS ON MONDAY. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
BETTER MIXING OCCURS FOR AWHILE TONIGHT BEFORE A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS
ARRIVES LATE AND DURING MONDAY. ON MONDAY, THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT A VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION IS PRESENT WHICH
WOULD KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE. THEREFORE, A GALE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT STARTING AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR ALL OUR
ZONES /LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR UPPER DELAWARE BAY/ AND CONTINUES
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AS WE GO THROUGH MONDAY, THE BEST MIXING
SHOULD SHIFT NEARSHORE AND OVER LAND. THEREFORE, WE DID NOT EXTEND
THE GALE WARNING ATTM. THE SEAS WILL BUILD QUITE A BIT DURING THE
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS, ALTHOUGH JUST HOW
MUCH WIND ACTUALLY MAKES IT TO THE SURFACE WILL INFLUENCE THE SEAS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...SW WIND SHIFTING TO WEST WITH THE CFP. SCA LIKELY.

TUESDAY...SCA EXPECTED DURING COLD AIR ADVECTION ON WESTERLY FLOW.

TUESDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY BELOW SCA CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY...STRONG NORTHEAST SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST SCA WITH A
POSSIBLE GALE. SEAS FORECAST ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS MAY BE 2
TO 4 FEET TOO LOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THANKSGIVING...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY FALL BELOW SCA
CRITERIA BUT ATLANTIC SEAS MAY NOT DROP BELOW 5 FT TIL AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...POSSIBLE SCA COLD AIR ADVECTION WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO THE
REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS BELOW FOR OUR FOUR
PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING UNBROKEN PERIOD OF
RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL SNOWFALL DATA.

BEST CHANCE OF COMING CLOSE TO A "DAILY" RECORD AS OF THIS SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS COLLABORATION APPEARS TO BE KABE.

DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS:

NOVEMBER 26TH:               NOVEMBER 27TH:       PERIOD OF RECORD:

ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955    1.2 INCHES 1978            1874

PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898         6.9 INCHES 1949,1938       1872

ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950         4.5 INCHES 1978            1894

ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925         7.0 INCHES 1938            1922

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...GORSE/NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
CLIMATE...DRAG






000
FXUS61 KPHI 240228
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
928 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE IN MISSOURI WILL ARRIVE IN THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES MONDAY YANKING A STRONG WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH OUR REGION
EARLY MONDAY. IT THEN SWEEPS A COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST MONDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATE TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM FORMING
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING MOVES EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND BY THANKSGIVING. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA
THURSDAY EVENING AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE CAROLINAS NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE NEEDED WITH THE UPDATE THIS EVENING, JUST SLOWED
THE TIMING OF THE POPS A BIT WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE.
STARTING TO SEE SOME OVER-RUNNING RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN DELMARVA
WHILE THE HEAVIEST RAIN REMAINS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST.

OTHERWISE, A POTENT SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL EVOLVE THROUGH TONIGHT.
THIS INVOLVES A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL AMPLIFY FROM
THE MIDWEST TO THE GULF COAST STATES, WHICH DRIVES A DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE, A
BUILDING RIDGE NEAR THE EAST COAST WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH ITS
CENTER MAINLY EAST OF FLORIDA.

THE STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST TONIGHT IS A
RESULT OF A POTENT 250 MB JET CARVING IT OUT. AS THIS OCCURS, THE
HEIGHT FIELDS TIGHTEN QUITE A BIT ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST AND SOUTH
SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS WILL DRIVE AN INCREASINGLY ROBUST WIND
FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE COURSE OF TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS,
SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN COMBINATION WITH STRENGTHENING WAA WILL DRIVE
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS OUR AREA. AS A RESULT, ABOUT A
4-6 HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SURGE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. AS THE THETA-E
ADVECTION REALLY RAMPS UP THIS EVENING, THE LOW-LEVEL DEW POINTS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND THIS WILL LEAD TO A JUMP IN PW VALUES.
THEREFORE, SOME OF THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WHICH
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. WE THEREFORE
CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE THE POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS
EVENING WITH CATEGORICAL POPS EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY FORECAST TO ARRIVE ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES ESPECIALLY LATE, AND THIS COULD PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.

AS THE FLOW INCREASES ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THE INJECTION OF A WARM
AIRMASS WORKS IN ACROSS THE AREA, WE SHOULD START TO MIX BETTER
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 AND IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS ALONG WITH WAA WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR
CWA. AS A RESULT, WE CONTINUED TO INDICATE RISING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. BY DAYBREAK, SOME EAST AND SOUTHERN AREAS MAY
BE INTO THE LOWER 60S. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE BETTER
MOMENTUM TRANSFER DEVELOPING LATE ESPECIALLY THE FARTHER SOUTHEAST
ONE GOES ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER GIVEN THE WAA PATTERN THERE SHOULD
BE A DECENT INVERSION PRESENT DURING THE NIGHT EVEN WITH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING. AS A RESULT, THE DEPTH OF THE MIXED LAYER
SHOULD NOT ALLOW THE TRANSFER OF THE RATHER ROBUST WINDS WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL JET DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THERE IS A CHC SOME FOG DEVELOPS
LATE ESPECIALLY AS THE WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR SURGES IN.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, MOSTLY A NAM/GFS MOS BLEND WAS USED AND
THESE WERE SET TO OCCUR THIS EVENING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A
TEMPERATURE RISE WAS THEN INDICATED THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
RECORD WARMTH CERTAINLY POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA.

A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR WEST, AND THIS
WILL DRIVE A POTENT SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARD
HUDSON BAY. THIS PLACES OUR AREA WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO ITS EAST. THE MAIN LOW-LEVEL JET AND LARGE
SCALE LIFT AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL FORCING IS FORECAST TO
QUICKLY SHIFT TO OUR NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS, A
DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS OUR AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAIN TAPERING TO
SOME SHOWERS AND ENDING FAIRLY QUICKLY IN THE MORNING FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST. THEREFORE, THE POPS DECREASE RATHER QUICKLY DURING THE
MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HANGING ON FOR A
LITTLE WHILE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS AND ALONG THE COAST, HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS. AFTER THAT, THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT DRYING OCCURS ALOFT FIRST ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRY
SLOT, HOWEVER WITH OUR AREA BEING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND STILL
STRONG WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE WE SHOULD MIX OUT MUCH OF THE LOWER
CLOUDS. WHILE A FEW SHOWERS COULD BE AROUND DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON, THE SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SHOW A MID LEVEL CAP
DEVELOPING ALONG WITH THE DRYING. THEREFORE, THIS MAY LIMIT ANY
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FOR AWHILE DESPITE SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT. THIS
BRINGS US TO THE WARMTH AND WINDS.

THE TEMPERATURES AT 925 MB ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND +15C DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AS WE LOSE THE LOWER
CLOUDS AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS, MIXING WILL DEEPEN. THIS WILL
BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. IF WE
CLEAR OUT MORE, THEN TEMPERATURES COULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. FOR NOW, USED A MOS BLEND BUT DID ADJUST UP SOME
ESPECIALLY FOR THE INTERSTATE 95 AREA ON SOUTH AND EAST.

AS FOR THE SURFACE WINDS MONDAY, WHILE THE INTENSE LOW-LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST TO BE SHIFTING TO OUR NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY, THE WIND
FIELD AT 925 MB IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40-50 KNOT RANGE. THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW BETTER MIXING BECOMING ESTABLISHED AND IF WE
WARM THE BOUNDARY EVEN MORE THIS DEPTH WOULD INCREASE SOME. IT STILL
APPEARS THOUGH THAT WE DO NOT MIX UP FULLY TO THE STRONGEST WINDS,
AND THEREFORE WE CARRY GUSTS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WE DID LEAN
CLOSER TO THE GFS WINDS WHICH ARE A LITTLE STRONGER AT THE SURFACE
AND BOOSTED THE GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
**WINTER STORM-EVENT VICINITY I-95 CORRIDOR WESTWARD WEDNESDAY**

500MB: THE STRONG SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES STORM
LIFTS NEWD INTO QUEBEC MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT TROUGH IS ON A MORE
SOUTHERLY ROUTE AND CROSSES THE EAST COAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH MORE COHERENCE IN ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS THAN PRESENTED 24 HOURS
AGO. HEIGHTS RISE TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND BUT A GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES DIFFICULT
TO DISCERN IN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN.

TEMPERATURES: TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER HAVE SO FAR
AVERAGED 4 TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH YESTERDAY THE 10TH
CONSECUTIVE DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A BRIEF HIATUS FROM
THE COLD IS AT HAND BUT EVEN SO...THE MONTH AS A WHOLE PROJECTS TO
AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL. DID A QUICK EXTRAPOLATION OF MAX/MIN
FOR THE REST OF THE MONTH BASED OUR OFFICE FORECAST AND WE ARE
PROJECTING 2.5 TO 3.5 DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY AVG OF 47.6 DEGREES.

CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES TUESDAY SHOULD BE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL (1201AM TUESDAY MORNING HIGHS COULD BE 60-63F PHL EASTWARD),
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY 6
TO 14 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DEPENDING WHEN THE PCPN BEGINS. THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL AND NEXT SUNDAY IN MAY WARM MORE THAN WE HAVE FORECAST.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/23 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN THE 12Z/23 GFS
MOS WAS NOT APPLIED WEDNESDAY...IT LOOKS TOO WARM BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES).
THEREAFTER (THURSDAY ONWARD) THE 1522Z/23 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE
WAS USED STRAIGHT UP. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED AGAINST THE
12Z/23 ECMWF THROUGH THURSDAY TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK
WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES.
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/23
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. THE SREF ALSO HAS
SIGNIFICANT PROBABILITIES FOR 1 AND 4 INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BY 7PM
WEDNESDAY I95 CORRIDOR WESTWARD BUT COULD BE BIASED TOO COLD! THE
12Z/23 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05 ARE USED AFTER 00Z/THURSDAY AS A
CHECK AGAINST OTHER AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

THE DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CHANCE OF A LOW TOP SHOWER OR SPRINKLE.
OTHERWISE CLEARING AND MAYBE A BIT BREEZY (WEST WIND GUSTS 20 MPH
FOR A TIME) AFTER THE EVENING CFP WHEN WE SEE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WIND FORECAST INCREASES AROUND 03-06Z. STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING WHEN TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 60S. GUIDANCE TEMPS: USED THE WARMER OF THE AVBL TEMP
GUIDANCE AND BLENDED WITH THE EVEN WARMER 2M NAM TEMPS AT 00Z AND
03Z/25 (PRIOR TO CFP).

TUESDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY (FIRST CIRRUS FROM GULF
COAST SHORT WAVE MOVING EASTWARD VCNTY TEX/LA AND ALSO RRQ STRONG
250MB JET OF 200 KT /230 MPH/ NEAR L ONTARIO). FOR THE SURFACE...AM
EXPECTING WESTERLY WIND GUSTS 25 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING CLOUDY WITH LIGHT WIND. SEASONABLE TEMPS.
LIGHT RAIN SPREADS UP ONTO THE DELMARVA AND POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY
TO PHL BY 12Z TUESDAY.


WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OUR MODEL OF CHOICE LEANS HEAVILY ON THE
ECMWF WITH GFS WPC AND SREF MIX. A COASTAL STORM DEEPENS A MB PER
HOUR AS IT RACES NEWD EAST OF THE MID ATLC COAST. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT AIDED BY RRQ OF 200KT 250MB JET OVER THE GULF OF ST
LAWRENCE.

ONE QUARTER TO 1.25 INCH AMOUNTS EXPECTED...HEAVIEST PROBABLY IN NJ.

SNOW MAP POSTED ALONG WITH BRIEFING PACKAGE TO GIVE OUR FIRST
EFFORT AT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE ADJUSTMENTS. THINKING THAT THIS FORECAST CAN
EASILY BE IN ERROR 3 INCHES EITHER SIDE OF WHAT IS POSTED ON OUR
WEB SITE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE ON SNOW AMOUNTS REACHING THE POSTED VALUES IS HIGHEST
FROM READING PA THROUGH THE POCONOS INTO FAR NW NJ. CONFIDENCE
LESSENS SOUTHEASTWARD.

NO MATTER...THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF SNOW IMPACTING TRAVEL
SOMETIME WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY JUST WEST OF
I-95. THE 12Z/23 ECMWF IS THE WARMEST MODEL WITH THE GFS COLDER
BUT ALSO PROBABLY TOO FAR EAST. THE EC HAS A DEFINITE ABOVE
FREEZING LAYER BETWEEN 850 AND 700MB. THE GFS NOT.

SNOW/RAIN: I-95 CORRIDOR OR 30 MILES NORTHWEST LOOKS TO BE GENERAL
DEMARCATION BETWEEN MOSTLY SNOW AND MOSTLY RAIN. DEPENDING ON YOUR
MODEL SELECTED AND THERE WILL BE ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED...IT COULD BE
RAIN-SNOW CHANGING TO ALL RAIN THEN ENDING AS SNOW FOR I95; MOSTLY
SNOW FURTHER WEST AND NORTH THROUGH EASTERN PA AND NW NJ.
ELEVATIONS WILL ACCUMULATE BEST WHERE ITS COLDER.

TEMPS FOR THE WEDNESDAY FCST ARE THE 330 AM PHI FCST BLENDED 50 50
WITH THE 00Z-12Z/23 ECMWF 2M TEMPS AND DID NOT USE THE 12Z/23 MEXMOS
TEMPS WHICH LOOKED 3 TO 6 DEGREES TOO WARM. MAX TEMPS APPEAR TO BE
OCCURRING FORENOON BEFORE PCPN WET BULBS COLDER READINGS DURING THE
AFTN.

TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE AT OR JUST ABOVE THE 12Z/23 GFS MEXMOS
VALUES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE WPC TEMPS.

THOSE LOOKING AT THE MODELS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT GUIDANCE DOES NOT
HANDLE SNOW COOLING THE SFC TEMPERATURES AND THE COLUMN WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW NOT TOO FAR WEST OF PHL WITH ONLY THE LOWEST
1000 FEET AIR TEMP STRUCTURE DETERMINING THE SURFACE PTYPE.

THE LARGER ACCUMS FOR THIS EVENT ALONG I-95 MAY BE RESERVED FOR THE
EVENING AS PCPN PROBABLY CHANGES TO ALL SNOW.

SE OF I95...WHICH INCLUDES MOST OF MD E SHORE AND DELAWARE AND
COASTAL NJ...MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED. IT COULD END AS A PERIOD OF
WET SNOW OR FLURRIES... ALL DEPENDENT ON BANDING TAIL (500 MB VORT
MAX TRACK/STRENGTH).

THURSDAY...A SECONDARY TROUGH PASSAGE...SFC COLD FRONT WITH
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE (WINDEX?) MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW
SHOWERS NW OF I95. FOR NOW ONLY GRIDDED IN THE POCONOS.

FRIDAY- SUNDAY...WPC GUIDANCE AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE
CAROLINAS. LOWS TEMPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING MIGHT BE AROUND
8 DEGREES COLDER THAN FORECAST NORTH OF I78 IF THERE IS SNOW
COVER (10 TO 15F).

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CURRENT THINKING/TIMING WITH THE 00Z
TAFS, THOUGH A DELAYED ONSET OF MVFR IS POSSIBLE BY AN HOUR OR TWO
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

TONIGHT...VFR TO START, THEN CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
LOWER TO MVFR AND IFR /LOCAL LIFR/ AS A WARM FRONT ARRIVES. A
PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
HEAVY AT TIMES. THIS WILL ALSO REDUCE THE VISIBILITIES, WITH EVEN
SOME FOG POSSIBLE LATE ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST AND FROM NEAR
KABE ON NORTHWARD. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT AROUND 5 KNOTS WILL
INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND COULD BECOME GUSTY AT
TIMES. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE FROM NEAR THE KPHL METRO ON
SOUTH AND EAST. THE AMOUNT OF GUSTINESS THAT OCCURS LATE CARRIES
LOWER CONFIDENCE. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT
LATE MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KPHL. A POTENT LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA, AND THEREFORE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS INCLUDED
FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...MVFR/IFR /LOCAL LIFR/ CEILINGS FOR A TIME IN THE MORNING,
THEN CEILINGS SHOULD RISE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON AS A MUCH WARMER
AIRMASS IS IN PLACE. IT IS POSSIBLE THOUGH THAT SOME LOW CLOUDS
LINGER LONGER ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST AND NORTH OF KTTN AND
KABE. RAIN DEPARTS EARLY, HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WILL
BE POSSIBLE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 KNOTS. THE CORE OF LOW-LEVEL JET SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE
DURING THE DAY, THEREFORE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE
DURING THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. WESTERLY WINDS MAY BRIEFLY
GUST 20-25 KT MONDAY NIGHT SUBSEQUENT TO A CFP THAT COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A SPRINKLE. WEST WINDS SHOULD GUST 25 KT ON TUESDAY
THEN DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THEY TURN NORTH
TO NORTHWEST. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THIS SCENARIO.

WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL STORM WILL BRING MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS IN
RAIN COAST (KACY/KMIV), RAIN SNOW KTTN KPNE KTPHL AND KILG AND
MOSTLY SNOW KABE AND KRDG. IN ADDITION, EXPECT PERSISTENT NORTHERLY
OR NORTHEASTERLY WINDS FOR GENERALLY THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY
WITH GUSTS 12-25 KT FROM WEST TO EAST. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END AS
SNOW MOST TAF SITES AT NIGHT EXCEPT POSSIBLY NOT AT KMIV/KACY.

SIGNIFICANT PAVEMENT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE KRDG/KABE ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THANKSGIVING...CONDITIONS SLOWLY RETURN TO VFR AND WINDS SHIFT TO
WESTERLY OR NORTHWEST. THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CONDS IN SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY MAINLY JUST N OF KRDG AND KABE. WINDS MAY
GUST TO 25 KT.

FRIDAY...PROBABLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR WEST LATER TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT ALONG
WITH AN INCREASINGLY ROBUST WIND FIELD. THE 925 MB WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 50-70 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT, THEN DECREASE
TO ABOUT 40-50 KNOTS ON MONDAY. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
BETTER MIXING OCCURS FOR AWHILE TONIGHT BEFORE A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS
ARRIVES LATE AND DURING MONDAY. ON MONDAY, THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT A VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION IS PRESENT WHICH
WOULD KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE. THEREFORE, A GALE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT STARTING AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR ALL OUR
ZONES /LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR UPPER DELAWARE BAY/ AND CONTINUES
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AS WE GO THROUGH MONDAY, THE BEST MIXING
SHOULD SHIFT NEARSHORE AND OVER LAND. THEREFORE, WE DID NOT EXTEND
THE GALE WARNING ATTM. THE SEAS WILL BUILD QUITE A BIT DURING THE
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS, ALTHOUGH JUST HOW
MUCH WIND ACTUALLY MAKES IT TO THE SURFACE WILL INFLUENCE THE SEAS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...SW WIND SHIFTING TO WEST WITH THE CFP. SCA LIKELY.

TUESDAY...SCA EXPECTED DURING COLD AIR ADVECTION ON WESTERLY FLOW.

TUESDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY BELOW SCA CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY...STRONG NORTHEAST SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST SCA WITH A
POSSIBLE GALE. SEAS FORECAST ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS MAY BE 2
TO 4 FEET TOO LOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THANKSGIVING...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY FALL BELOW SCA
CRITERIA BUT ATLANTIC SEAS MAY NOT DROP BELOW 5 FT TIL AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...POSSIBLE SCA COLD AIR ADVECTION WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO THE
REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS BELOW FOR OUR FOUR
PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING UNBROKEN PERIOD OF
RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL SNOWFALL DATA.

BEST CHANCE OF COMING CLOSE TO A "DAILY" RECORD AS OF THIS SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS COLLABORATION APPEARS TO BE KABE.

DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS:

NOVEMBER 26TH:               NOVEMBER 27TH:       PERIOD OF RECORD:

ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955    1.2 INCHES 1978            1874

PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898         6.9 INCHES 1949,1938       1872

ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950         4.5 INCHES 1978            1894

ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925         7.0 INCHES 1938            1922

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...GORSE/NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
CLIMATE...DRAG







000
FXUS61 KLWX 240228
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
928 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFYING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
EWD TRACKING OF THE PRVSLY BLOCKING HIGH AND DEVELOPING LOW OVER
MIDWEST WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
DUE TO THE WARM AIR ADVECTION...RA WL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA...AND TEMPS WL RISE (MINS WILL BE SHORTLY AFTER
SATURATION). WE WL BE IN A HIGH SHEAR/NO CAPE ENVIRONMENT BTWN 10
PM AND 4 AM. ELEVATED INSTABILITY...A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER FOR
SERN ZONES...ROUGHLY AROUND KCHO THIS EVENING THEN I-95 AND EAST
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MON THE WARM FNT HAS PUSHED N OF US AND PCPN WL COME TO AN END. IT
SHOULD BE A WARM DAY W/ SRLY WINDS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH TE M70S IN
MANY SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC MONDAY
EVENING...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
BETWEEN 00-06Z. THE FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED...WITH ONLY A
SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF I-95. THERE IS A CHANCE
UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...WHICH WILL MAINLY BE IN
THE FORM OF RAIN DUE TO WARM STARTING TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH SNOW
MAY MIX IN AS TEMPERATURES COOL OVERNIGHT. NOT A FAVORABLE SET UP
FOR PROLONGED UPSLOPE THOUGH...SO POPS TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT.
COLD AIR WILL BE SLOW TO WORK EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR FREEZING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO UPPER 40S
NEAR THE BAY.

THE FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NOSING IN ON SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CAA SLOWS...SO DESPITE BEING
COOLER...NOT A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S UNDER A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INITIATE SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE FRONT
BUCKLES AND LOW BEGINS TO TURN UP THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD...SOME
MOISTURE MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. IF IT
DOES SO...IT WOULD MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN MD TO CENTRAL VA...WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN. LOWS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S.

WED IS A CHALLENGE. THE KEY AT THIS PT IN TIME IS TO NOTE THIS IS
STILL 3 DAYS HENCE AND THERE CAN BE CHGS TO THE FCST. LOW PRES IS
XPCTD TO FORM IN THE GULFMEX ON THE DEPARTED CD FNT AND THEN MOVE
N ALONG THE ALTC SEABOARD WED. DEPENDING ON THE MDL THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE POSN OF THE LOW...FM OVR HAT/ORF WED AFTN TO A
HUNDRED MILES OUT TO SEA. W/ THE LOW E OF THE FCST AREA THIS WL
ALLOW CD AIR TO BE DRAWN INTO THE MID ATLC - SUB 130 DM. MOISTURE WL
TO BE DRAWN INTO THE RGN...LKLY CAUSING SNOW TO FALL AT HIGHER
ELEVS AND ALONG M-D LN...A MIX FM THE BLU RDG TO I-95...AND MAINLY
RA E OF I-95. SVRL INCHES OF SNOWFALL ARE PSBL WED...AGN MAINLY AT
HIGHER ELEVS.

THERE IS NO BLOCKING HIGH TO HOLD THIS LOW NEAR THE DELMARVA. IT
IS PROJECTED TO MOVE E OF NJ BY 00Z THU. THIS WOULD LKLY BRING AN
END TO THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW.

UPSLOPE SNOWS PSBL THU OVR THE HIGHLANDS. HIGH PRES BLDS INTO THE
AREA FRI. UPR LVL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZNL FOR THE WKND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR CONDS IN RAIN OVRNGT. CIGS WL LKLY IMPROVE AFTR SUNRISE MON.
ISOL TSRA NEAR KCHO LATE THIS EVENING THEN DC METROS AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING WITH DIRECTION SHIFTING FROM
SOUTH TO WEST. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS ALONG THE COAST ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW
AFFECTING THE REGION. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFICS AT THIS
TIME...BUT IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SELY WINDS INCRS TNGT WITH RAIN INCREASING IN INTENSITY OVERNIGHT.
SCA IN EFFECT TNGT INTO MON EVENING. SWLY FLOW MONDAY GUSTING
GENERALLY AROUND 25 KT...BUT ISOLATED 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING AND SHIFT IN DIRECTION FROM
SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXTENDED THE
SCA TO 1 AM FOR MOST OF THE WATERS. LIGHT WINDS THE REST OF MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES OFFSHORE WHICH WILL LIKELY
NECESSITATE A SCA. MORE SCA-LEVEL GUSTS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE MID-CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL INCREASE TO 20-25
MPH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE TEMP CONTRAST BETWEEN THE AIR
AND WATER...MUCH BETTER WINDS WILL BE CONFINED ALOFT. EVEN THE
TYPICALLY AGGRESSIVE CBOFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE WL BE NO
WATER LVL RISE WITH TIDES TONIGHT. SWLY FLOW WILL POTENTIALLY BE
STRONG TONIGHT...BUT THIS DOES NOT POSE MUCH THREAT TO THE WESTERN
SHORE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ531>534-537-
     539>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ530-538.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ535.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ536.

&&

$$
UPDATE...JACKSON
PREVIOUS...WOODY!/ADS/CEM






000
FXUS61 KLWX 240228
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
928 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFYING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
EWD TRACKING OF THE PRVSLY BLOCKING HIGH AND DEVELOPING LOW OVER
MIDWEST WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
DUE TO THE WARM AIR ADVECTION...RA WL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA...AND TEMPS WL RISE (MINS WILL BE SHORTLY AFTER
SATURATION). WE WL BE IN A HIGH SHEAR/NO CAPE ENVIRONMENT BTWN 10
PM AND 4 AM. ELEVATED INSTABILITY...A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER FOR
SERN ZONES...ROUGHLY AROUND KCHO THIS EVENING THEN I-95 AND EAST
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MON THE WARM FNT HAS PUSHED N OF US AND PCPN WL COME TO AN END. IT
SHOULD BE A WARM DAY W/ SRLY WINDS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH TE M70S IN
MANY SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC MONDAY
EVENING...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
BETWEEN 00-06Z. THE FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED...WITH ONLY A
SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF I-95. THERE IS A CHANCE
UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...WHICH WILL MAINLY BE IN
THE FORM OF RAIN DUE TO WARM STARTING TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH SNOW
MAY MIX IN AS TEMPERATURES COOL OVERNIGHT. NOT A FAVORABLE SET UP
FOR PROLONGED UPSLOPE THOUGH...SO POPS TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT.
COLD AIR WILL BE SLOW TO WORK EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR FREEZING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO UPPER 40S
NEAR THE BAY.

THE FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NOSING IN ON SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CAA SLOWS...SO DESPITE BEING
COOLER...NOT A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S UNDER A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INITIATE SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE FRONT
BUCKLES AND LOW BEGINS TO TURN UP THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD...SOME
MOISTURE MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. IF IT
DOES SO...IT WOULD MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN MD TO CENTRAL VA...WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN. LOWS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S.

WED IS A CHALLENGE. THE KEY AT THIS PT IN TIME IS TO NOTE THIS IS
STILL 3 DAYS HENCE AND THERE CAN BE CHGS TO THE FCST. LOW PRES IS
XPCTD TO FORM IN THE GULFMEX ON THE DEPARTED CD FNT AND THEN MOVE
N ALONG THE ALTC SEABOARD WED. DEPENDING ON THE MDL THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE POSN OF THE LOW...FM OVR HAT/ORF WED AFTN TO A
HUNDRED MILES OUT TO SEA. W/ THE LOW E OF THE FCST AREA THIS WL
ALLOW CD AIR TO BE DRAWN INTO THE MID ATLC - SUB 130 DM. MOISTURE WL
TO BE DRAWN INTO THE RGN...LKLY CAUSING SNOW TO FALL AT HIGHER
ELEVS AND ALONG M-D LN...A MIX FM THE BLU RDG TO I-95...AND MAINLY
RA E OF I-95. SVRL INCHES OF SNOWFALL ARE PSBL WED...AGN MAINLY AT
HIGHER ELEVS.

THERE IS NO BLOCKING HIGH TO HOLD THIS LOW NEAR THE DELMARVA. IT
IS PROJECTED TO MOVE E OF NJ BY 00Z THU. THIS WOULD LKLY BRING AN
END TO THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW.

UPSLOPE SNOWS PSBL THU OVR THE HIGHLANDS. HIGH PRES BLDS INTO THE
AREA FRI. UPR LVL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZNL FOR THE WKND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR CONDS IN RAIN OVRNGT. CIGS WL LKLY IMPROVE AFTR SUNRISE MON.
ISOL TSRA NEAR KCHO LATE THIS EVENING THEN DC METROS AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING WITH DIRECTION SHIFTING FROM
SOUTH TO WEST. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS ALONG THE COAST ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW
AFFECTING THE REGION. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFICS AT THIS
TIME...BUT IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SELY WINDS INCRS TNGT WITH RAIN INCREASING IN INTENSITY OVERNIGHT.
SCA IN EFFECT TNGT INTO MON EVENING. SWLY FLOW MONDAY GUSTING
GENERALLY AROUND 25 KT...BUT ISOLATED 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING AND SHIFT IN DIRECTION FROM
SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXTENDED THE
SCA TO 1 AM FOR MOST OF THE WATERS. LIGHT WINDS THE REST OF MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES OFFSHORE WHICH WILL LIKELY
NECESSITATE A SCA. MORE SCA-LEVEL GUSTS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE MID-CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL INCREASE TO 20-25
MPH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE TEMP CONTRAST BETWEEN THE AIR
AND WATER...MUCH BETTER WINDS WILL BE CONFINED ALOFT. EVEN THE
TYPICALLY AGGRESSIVE CBOFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE WL BE NO
WATER LVL RISE WITH TIDES TONIGHT. SWLY FLOW WILL POTENTIALLY BE
STRONG TONIGHT...BUT THIS DOES NOT POSE MUCH THREAT TO THE WESTERN
SHORE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ531>534-537-
     539>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ530-538.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ535.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ536.

&&

$$
UPDATE...JACKSON
PREVIOUS...WOODY!/ADS/CEM





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240201 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
901 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
GUSTY WINDS MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
900 PM UPDATE... PREVIOUS FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. JUST MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT POPS AND QPF. TEMPS HAVE BEEN
MODIFIED WITH LATEST GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SHRTWV AND SFC WRM FNT WL ADVN ACRS THE
OH VLY AND GT LKS RGN TNGT. AMPLE DEEP MOISTURE...UPR SPPRT...AND
LLVL JET IN PLACE CONT TO ALLOW FOR CAT POPS FOR RAIN. RAIN IS
EXPD TO END TAPER OFF OR END BEFORE DAWN AS THE SHRTWV AND SFC FNT
EXIT. TEMPS SHOULD INITIALLY DROP AT PCPN ONSET...THEN BEGIN TO
RISE LT TNGT IN WRM ADVCTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPR TROFG AND A DEEPENING SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO
THE UPR GT LKS MON. THE LOWS ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS PROGGED FOR A MON
AFTN PASSAGE ACRS OUR RGN. MSTR IS LTD SO MAINTAINED CHC POPS WITH
FROPA. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ARND THE DEEPENING LOW SHOULD
BRING GUSTY SFC WNDS AS MXG BEGINS MON. FCST SOUNDINGS/GUST
TECHNIQUES INDICATE GUSTS TO ARND 50 MPH ARE LIKELY. WL ISSUE A
WIND ADVISORY FM LT MON MRNG INTO ERLY EVE AS WNDS WL LIKELY STAY
GUSTY FOR A FEW HRS AFT FROPA.

COLD ADVCTN KICKS IN AFT FROPA AS BROAD UPR TROFG RMNS ACRS THE GT
LKS AND UPR MIDWEST THRU TUE. STRATOCU IS EXPD...THOUGH SNW SHWR
CHCS WL BE MINIMAL WITH A SW BNDRY LYR FLOW PREVENTING ANY LK
CONNECTIONS OR SGFNT UPSLOPE COMPONENT.

ANOTHER BROAD UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO SET UP BY MID WK...AS A
COASTAL LOW DVLPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC RGN. THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS
TRACK RMNS IN QN...AND THIS WL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE POTENTIAL AMT
AND LOCATION OF SNW THAT THIS SYSTEM BRINGS. THE SREF SOLN LOOKS
VRY REASONABLE ATTM GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC PTN ATTM...WHICH BRINGS SNW
CHCS FM PIT EWD...AND KEEPS THE HEAVIEST PCPN E OF OUR AREA.

TEMPS ARE EXPD TO RCH 10-15 DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS MON...BUT WL DCR
TO ARND 10 DEG BLO AVG BY TUE AND WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LARGE VARIATIONS IN GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG RANGE AND ADJUSTED
FORECAST WITH THE NEW WPC PROGS TEMPERED WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF. AS
STORM SYSTEM MOVES UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS INTO
THANKSGIVING DAY FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARM FRONT/SHORTWAVE COMBINATION WILL PUSH A LARGE RAIN SHIELD
ACROSS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CIG/VIS WITH DROPS TO IFR
AT TIMES IN THE HEAVIER RAIN. RAIN LIFTS OUT BY DAYBREAK...WITH
MVFR LINGERING INTO MIDMORNING. VFR CIG/VIS FIGURED BY
MIDDAY...BUT THE STORY TOMORROW WILL BE THE WIND. S/SW WINDS WILL
GUST TO BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KNOTS AT LEAST TOMORROW...POSSIBLY
HIGHER. THIS WILL CREATE SOME SIGNFICANT CROSSWINDS ON E/W RUNWAYS.


OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
     048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ001>004-
     012-021>023-041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240201 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
901 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
GUSTY WINDS MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
900 PM UPDATE... PREVIOUS FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. JUST MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT POPS AND QPF. TEMPS HAVE BEEN
MODIFIED WITH LATEST GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SHRTWV AND SFC WRM FNT WL ADVN ACRS THE
OH VLY AND GT LKS RGN TNGT. AMPLE DEEP MOISTURE...UPR SPPRT...AND
LLVL JET IN PLACE CONT TO ALLOW FOR CAT POPS FOR RAIN. RAIN IS
EXPD TO END TAPER OFF OR END BEFORE DAWN AS THE SHRTWV AND SFC FNT
EXIT. TEMPS SHOULD INITIALLY DROP AT PCPN ONSET...THEN BEGIN TO
RISE LT TNGT IN WRM ADVCTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPR TROFG AND A DEEPENING SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO
THE UPR GT LKS MON. THE LOWS ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS PROGGED FOR A MON
AFTN PASSAGE ACRS OUR RGN. MSTR IS LTD SO MAINTAINED CHC POPS WITH
FROPA. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ARND THE DEEPENING LOW SHOULD
BRING GUSTY SFC WNDS AS MXG BEGINS MON. FCST SOUNDINGS/GUST
TECHNIQUES INDICATE GUSTS TO ARND 50 MPH ARE LIKELY. WL ISSUE A
WIND ADVISORY FM LT MON MRNG INTO ERLY EVE AS WNDS WL LIKELY STAY
GUSTY FOR A FEW HRS AFT FROPA.

COLD ADVCTN KICKS IN AFT FROPA AS BROAD UPR TROFG RMNS ACRS THE GT
LKS AND UPR MIDWEST THRU TUE. STRATOCU IS EXPD...THOUGH SNW SHWR
CHCS WL BE MINIMAL WITH A SW BNDRY LYR FLOW PREVENTING ANY LK
CONNECTIONS OR SGFNT UPSLOPE COMPONENT.

ANOTHER BROAD UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO SET UP BY MID WK...AS A
COASTAL LOW DVLPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC RGN. THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS
TRACK RMNS IN QN...AND THIS WL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE POTENTIAL AMT
AND LOCATION OF SNW THAT THIS SYSTEM BRINGS. THE SREF SOLN LOOKS
VRY REASONABLE ATTM GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC PTN ATTM...WHICH BRINGS SNW
CHCS FM PIT EWD...AND KEEPS THE HEAVIEST PCPN E OF OUR AREA.

TEMPS ARE EXPD TO RCH 10-15 DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS MON...BUT WL DCR
TO ARND 10 DEG BLO AVG BY TUE AND WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LARGE VARIATIONS IN GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG RANGE AND ADJUSTED
FORECAST WITH THE NEW WPC PROGS TEMPERED WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF. AS
STORM SYSTEM MOVES UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS INTO
THANKSGIVING DAY FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARM FRONT/SHORTWAVE COMBINATION WILL PUSH A LARGE RAIN SHIELD
ACROSS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CIG/VIS WITH DROPS TO IFR
AT TIMES IN THE HEAVIER RAIN. RAIN LIFTS OUT BY DAYBREAK...WITH
MVFR LINGERING INTO MIDMORNING. VFR CIG/VIS FIGURED BY
MIDDAY...BUT THE STORY TOMORROW WILL BE THE WIND. S/SW WINDS WILL
GUST TO BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KNOTS AT LEAST TOMORROW...POSSIBLY
HIGHER. THIS WILL CREATE SOME SIGNFICANT CROSSWINDS ON E/W RUNWAYS.


OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
     048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ001>004-
     012-021>023-041.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240044
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
744 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE EAST
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY INDICATES A POTENT TROUGH LIFTING NE INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE
GULF. AT THE SURFACE...~992MB LOW WAS ANALYZED OVER SE MO/W KY...WITH
THE SFC WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND NE
ALONG COASTAL SC AND SE NC.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING SCT SHOWERS LIFTING SW TO NE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING, WITH A SWATH OF MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION...A RESULT OF STRONG VERTICAL LIFT ALONG THE
FRONT...NOTED FROM THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BACK INTO E KY. HV MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP BASED UPON THE LATEST DOWNSCALE NAM
AND HRRR, WHICH SEEM TO BE HANDLING LLVL WINDS AND PCPN TRENDS
WELL THUS FAR THIS EVENING. THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD DUE TO A STRONG NEARLY 70KT LLJ. 12HR
POPS FOR RAIN TONIGHT WILL REMAIN AT 100%. GIVEN LATEST TIMING,
EXPECT WIDESPREAD MOD RAINFALL TO MOVE ACROSS WRN PORTIONS
BY MIDNIGHT TO AROUND 2AM...BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VA BETWEEN 2-4AM AND PUSHING OFFSHORE BY SUNRISE MON
MORNING.

HV MAINTAINED THUNDER MENTION OVER NE NC, AND HV ADDED SE VA AND
LOWER EASTERN SHORE BASED ON LIGHTNING DATA OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS WHICH SEEMS TO MESH WELL WITH CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS,
THOUGH LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER EXPECTED IN THESE
AREAS. SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE CONTINUES FOR NE NC COUNTIES
IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES REMAIN RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE...AND ANY MID- LEVEL DRY AIR
APPEARS TO ARRIVE ONCE THE STRONGEST FORCING EXITS THE REGION...SO
THE SEVERE THREAT IS MINIMAL. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
6HR PRESSURE FALLS OF -6MB TO -10MB PER GFS WILL RESULT IN
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. GUSTS FROM
THE SSE DIRECTION OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE OCCURRING EARLY TONIGHT...WITH READINGS LIKELY
TO RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN MILD/MOIST SLY FLOW AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG FORCING AND SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
SHOULD RESULT IN A ~6HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAIN TONIGHT...WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS AVERAGING 0.5 TO 0.75IN
N-CENTRAL PORTIONS AND 1.00-1.25IN NEAR THE COAST (AND NE NC).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION BY 12Z MON...WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE FAR WRN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUE. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING
EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY INLAND. A GUSTY SW WIND WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S (SEE THE CLIMO
SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS). 20-30% POPS WILL BE CONFINED TO E/SE
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS THE 23/12Z NAM REMAINS AN OUTLIER IN
LINGERING DEEPER MOISTURE.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED INLAND. CLOUDS POTENTIALLY LINGER NEAR THE
COAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE...AND LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TUE. HIGHS TUE
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER MORNING
LOWS FROM THE MID 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE.

23/12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEMONSTRATE AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEAR THE SOUTHEAST CONUS LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT. THIS LOW THEN TRACKS NNE
ALONG THE COAST WED BRINGING RA TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON A BUSY
TRAVEL DAY. OF NOTE THE 23/12Z NAM IS FLATTER AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE...BUT AT THIS TIME THE GFS/ECMWF SCENARIO IS PREFERRED
PER PMDHMD. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SOME WET SN COULD MIX IN AS THE
PCPN TAPERS OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO ANY
ACCUMULATION IS LOW AT THIS TIME...AS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO COOL
THE BOUNDARY LAYER FULLY BY DYNAMICAL COOLING AS ANY CAA IS MINIMAL.
CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE OFF THE 23/00Z GFS SUGGESTS THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SN WILL BE ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES.
CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 30S/LOW
40S INLAND...TO THE MID/UPPER 40S OVER SE PORTIONS...AND THESE WILL
LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. STRONG LO PRES WILL BE JUST OFF THE DE CST AT 00Z
THU...AND WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NNE AND JUST OFF
THE MAINE CST BY 12Z THU. PCPN WILL BE TAPERING OFF OR ENDING FM SW
TO NE WED EVENG INTO EARLY THU MORNG...AND COULD END AS A MIXTURE
OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OR JUST SNOW SHOWERS OVR INLAND/PIEDMONT
COUNTIES. A MAINLY DRY FRONT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO
THU NGT. HI PRES WILL BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI INTO
SAT...THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLC/SE CST FOR SAT AFTN THRU SUN.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S THU...IN THE 40S
FRI...IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S SAT...AND IN THE UPR 40S TO MID
50S SUN. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S THU
MORNG...IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S FRI AND SAT MORNGS...AND IN THE
30S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY
FROM THE COAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
THIS IS PUSHING ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS AND
IT WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
INITIALLY...JUST SEEING SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...BUT SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SLIDING NORTH THROUGH THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TN RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT...THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP THE COAST
AND SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 6Z AND 9Z. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. ALSO
EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUST.

BEHIND THE FRONT...AFTER 9Z...THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
AND STILL BE GUSTY TO AROUND 15 KTS. BUT ONCE IN THE WARM
SECTOR...SHOULD SLOWLY SEE CEILINGS IMPROVE AND COULD POTENTIALLY
SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER 15Z...AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVING IN
AND MIXING HELP CEILINGS TO RISE.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS COMES ON WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE ALONG THE COAST SPREADING RAIN AND LOW
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE MAINTAINED GALE WARNGS AND SCA`S FOR THE WTRS FM THIS EVENG
THRU MON. DESPITE WARM AIR OVR COOL WTR TEMPS...WITH A STRONG
PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT...AND LATEST
NAM12 PROGGING 925 MB WINDS ~75 KT...THINK THAT THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST A FEW HRS OF WINDS AOA 34 KT OVR THE OCEAN TNGT INTO EARLY
MON MORNG. SEAS WILL BLD TO 6-9 FT. GUSTS MAY COME CLOSE TO GALE
FORCE OVR THE BAY AS WELL (AT LEAST AT ELEVATED SITES) WHERE
STRONG SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. THE GALE WARNG ENDS LATE
MON MORNG...BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED...AS GUSTS COULD CONTINUE
IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE THRU THE AFTN HRS. THE SCA HEADLINES ALL END
DURING THE DAY MON...AS WINDS DECREASE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRNT
WHICH CROSSES THE WTRS LATE MON NGT/TUE MORNG. IMPROVING MARINE
CONDITIONS THEN INTO TUE WITH WEAK HI PRES OVR THE AREA. STRONG
NNE OR NW WINDS THEN EXPECTED TUE NGT INTO WED NGT...AS LO PRES
TRACKS NWRD JUST OFF THE EAST CST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ633-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ630>632.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...TMG
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240044
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
744 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE EAST
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY INDICATES A POTENT TROUGH LIFTING NE INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE
GULF. AT THE SURFACE...~992MB LOW WAS ANALYZED OVER SE MO/W KY...WITH
THE SFC WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND NE
ALONG COASTAL SC AND SE NC.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING SCT SHOWERS LIFTING SW TO NE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING, WITH A SWATH OF MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION...A RESULT OF STRONG VERTICAL LIFT ALONG THE
FRONT...NOTED FROM THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BACK INTO E KY. HV MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP BASED UPON THE LATEST DOWNSCALE NAM
AND HRRR, WHICH SEEM TO BE HANDLING LLVL WINDS AND PCPN TRENDS
WELL THUS FAR THIS EVENING. THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD DUE TO A STRONG NEARLY 70KT LLJ. 12HR
POPS FOR RAIN TONIGHT WILL REMAIN AT 100%. GIVEN LATEST TIMING,
EXPECT WIDESPREAD MOD RAINFALL TO MOVE ACROSS WRN PORTIONS
BY MIDNIGHT TO AROUND 2AM...BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VA BETWEEN 2-4AM AND PUSHING OFFSHORE BY SUNRISE MON
MORNING.

HV MAINTAINED THUNDER MENTION OVER NE NC, AND HV ADDED SE VA AND
LOWER EASTERN SHORE BASED ON LIGHTNING DATA OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS WHICH SEEMS TO MESH WELL WITH CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS,
THOUGH LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER EXPECTED IN THESE
AREAS. SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE CONTINUES FOR NE NC COUNTIES
IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES REMAIN RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE...AND ANY MID- LEVEL DRY AIR
APPEARS TO ARRIVE ONCE THE STRONGEST FORCING EXITS THE REGION...SO
THE SEVERE THREAT IS MINIMAL. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
6HR PRESSURE FALLS OF -6MB TO -10MB PER GFS WILL RESULT IN
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. GUSTS FROM
THE SSE DIRECTION OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE OCCURRING EARLY TONIGHT...WITH READINGS LIKELY
TO RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN MILD/MOIST SLY FLOW AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG FORCING AND SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
SHOULD RESULT IN A ~6HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAIN TONIGHT...WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS AVERAGING 0.5 TO 0.75IN
N-CENTRAL PORTIONS AND 1.00-1.25IN NEAR THE COAST (AND NE NC).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION BY 12Z MON...WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE FAR WRN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUE. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING
EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY INLAND. A GUSTY SW WIND WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S (SEE THE CLIMO
SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS). 20-30% POPS WILL BE CONFINED TO E/SE
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS THE 23/12Z NAM REMAINS AN OUTLIER IN
LINGERING DEEPER MOISTURE.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED INLAND. CLOUDS POTENTIALLY LINGER NEAR THE
COAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE...AND LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TUE. HIGHS TUE
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER MORNING
LOWS FROM THE MID 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE.

23/12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEMONSTRATE AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEAR THE SOUTHEAST CONUS LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT. THIS LOW THEN TRACKS NNE
ALONG THE COAST WED BRINGING RA TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON A BUSY
TRAVEL DAY. OF NOTE THE 23/12Z NAM IS FLATTER AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE...BUT AT THIS TIME THE GFS/ECMWF SCENARIO IS PREFERRED
PER PMDHMD. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SOME WET SN COULD MIX IN AS THE
PCPN TAPERS OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO ANY
ACCUMULATION IS LOW AT THIS TIME...AS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO COOL
THE BOUNDARY LAYER FULLY BY DYNAMICAL COOLING AS ANY CAA IS MINIMAL.
CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE OFF THE 23/00Z GFS SUGGESTS THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SN WILL BE ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES.
CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 30S/LOW
40S INLAND...TO THE MID/UPPER 40S OVER SE PORTIONS...AND THESE WILL
LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. STRONG LO PRES WILL BE JUST OFF THE DE CST AT 00Z
THU...AND WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NNE AND JUST OFF
THE MAINE CST BY 12Z THU. PCPN WILL BE TAPERING OFF OR ENDING FM SW
TO NE WED EVENG INTO EARLY THU MORNG...AND COULD END AS A MIXTURE
OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OR JUST SNOW SHOWERS OVR INLAND/PIEDMONT
COUNTIES. A MAINLY DRY FRONT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO
THU NGT. HI PRES WILL BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI INTO
SAT...THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLC/SE CST FOR SAT AFTN THRU SUN.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S THU...IN THE 40S
FRI...IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S SAT...AND IN THE UPR 40S TO MID
50S SUN. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S THU
MORNG...IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S FRI AND SAT MORNGS...AND IN THE
30S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY
FROM THE COAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
THIS IS PUSHING ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS AND
IT WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
INITIALLY...JUST SEEING SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...BUT SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SLIDING NORTH THROUGH THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TN RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT...THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP THE COAST
AND SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 6Z AND 9Z. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. ALSO
EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUST.

BEHIND THE FRONT...AFTER 9Z...THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
AND STILL BE GUSTY TO AROUND 15 KTS. BUT ONCE IN THE WARM
SECTOR...SHOULD SLOWLY SEE CEILINGS IMPROVE AND COULD POTENTIALLY
SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER 15Z...AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVING IN
AND MIXING HELP CEILINGS TO RISE.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS COMES ON WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE ALONG THE COAST SPREADING RAIN AND LOW
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE MAINTAINED GALE WARNGS AND SCA`S FOR THE WTRS FM THIS EVENG
THRU MON. DESPITE WARM AIR OVR COOL WTR TEMPS...WITH A STRONG
PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT...AND LATEST
NAM12 PROGGING 925 MB WINDS ~75 KT...THINK THAT THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST A FEW HRS OF WINDS AOA 34 KT OVR THE OCEAN TNGT INTO EARLY
MON MORNG. SEAS WILL BLD TO 6-9 FT. GUSTS MAY COME CLOSE TO GALE
FORCE OVR THE BAY AS WELL (AT LEAST AT ELEVATED SITES) WHERE
STRONG SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. THE GALE WARNG ENDS LATE
MON MORNG...BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED...AS GUSTS COULD CONTINUE
IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE THRU THE AFTN HRS. THE SCA HEADLINES ALL END
DURING THE DAY MON...AS WINDS DECREASE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRNT
WHICH CROSSES THE WTRS LATE MON NGT/TUE MORNG. IMPROVING MARINE
CONDITIONS THEN INTO TUE WITH WEAK HI PRES OVR THE AREA. STRONG
NNE OR NW WINDS THEN EXPECTED TUE NGT INTO WED NGT...AS LO PRES
TRACKS NWRD JUST OFF THE EAST CST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ633-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ630>632.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...TMG
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 232338
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
638 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
GUSTY WINDS MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
610 PM UPDATE...
PREVIOUS FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. SPED UP
POPS JUST A BIT AS LEADING EDGE OF RAIN HAS CROSSED SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF FA. TEMPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO LATEST GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SHRTWV AND SFC WRM FNT WL ADVN ACRS THE
OH VLY AND GT LKS RGN TNGT. AMPLE DEEP MOISTURE...UPR SPPRT...AND
LLVL JET IN PLACE CONT TO ALLOW FOR CAT POPS FOR RAIN. RAIN IS
EXPD TO END TAPER OFF OR END BEFORE DAWN AS THE SHRTWV AND SFC FNT
EXIT. TEMPS SHOULD INITIALLY DROP AT PCPN ONSET...THEN BEGIN TO
RISE LT TNGT IN WRM ADVCTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPR TROFG AND A DEEPENING SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO
THE UPR GT LKS MON. THE LOWS ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS PROGGED FOR A MON
AFTN PASSAGE ACRS OUR RGN. MSTR IS LTD SO MAINTAINED CHC POPS WITH
FROPA. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ARND THE DEEPENING LOW SHOULD
BRING GUSTY SFC WNDS AS MXG BEGINS MON. FCST SOUNDINGS/GUST
TECHNIQUES INDICATE GUSTS TO ARND 50 MPH ARE LIKELY. WL ISSUE A
WIND ADVISORY FM LT MON MRNG INTO ERLY EVE AS WNDS WL LIKELY STAY
GUSTY FOR A FEW HRS AFT FROPA.

COLD ADVCTN KICKS IN AFT FROPA AS BROAD UPR TROFG RMNS ACRS THE GT
LKS AND UPR MIDWEST THRU TUE. STRATOCU IS EXPD...THOUGH SNW SHWR
CHCS WL BE MINIMAL WITH A SW BNDRY LYR FLOW PREVENTING ANY LK
CONNECTIONS OR SGFNT UPSLOPE COMPONENT.

ANOTHER BROAD UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO SET UP BY MID WK...AS A
COASTAL LOW DVLPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC RGN. THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS
TRACK RMNS IN QN...AND THIS WL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE POTENTIAL AMT
AND LOCATION OF SNW THAT THIS SYSTEM BRINGS. THE SREF SOLN LOOKS
VRY REASONABLE ATTM GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC PTN ATTM...WHICH BRINGS SNW
CHCS FM PIT EWD...AND KEEPS THE HEAVIEST PCPN E OF OUR AREA.

TEMPS ARE EXPD TO RCH 10-15 DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS MON...BUT WL DCR
TO ARND 10 DEG BLO AVG BY TUE AND WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LARGE VARIATIONS IN GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG RANGE AND ADJUSTED
FORECAST WITH THE NEW WPC PROGS TEMPERED WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF. AS
STORM SYSTEM MOVES UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS INTO
THANKSGIVING DAY FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARM FRONT/SHORTWAVE COMBINATION WILL PUSH A LARGE RAIN SHIELD
ACROSS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CIG/VIS WITH DROPS TO IFR
AT TIMES IN THE HEAVIER RAIN. RAIN LIFTS OUT BY DAYBREAK...WITH
MVFR LINGERING INTO MIDMORNING. VFR CIG/VIS FIGURED BY
MIDDAY...BUT THE STORY TOMORROW WILL BE THE WIND. S/SW WINDS WILL
GUST TO BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KNOTS AT LEAST TOMORROW...POSSIBLY
HIGHER. THIS WILL CREATE SOME SIGNFICANT CROSSWINDS ON E/W RUNWAYS.


OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
     048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ001>004-
     012-021>023-041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 232311 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
611 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
GUSTY WINDS MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
610 PM UPDATE...
PREVIOUS FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. SPED UP
POPS JUST A BIT AS LEADING EDGE OF RAIN HAS CROSSED SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF FA. TEMPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO LATEST GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SHRTWV AND SFC WRM FNT WL ADVN ACRS THE
OH VLY AND GT LKS RGN TNGT. AMPLE DEEP MOISTURE...UPR SPPRT...AND
LLVL JET IN PLACE CONT TO ALLOW FOR CAT POPS FOR RAIN. RAIN IS
EXPD TO END TAPER OFF OR END BEFORE DAWN AS THE SHRTWV AND SFC FNT
EXIT. TEMPS SHOULD INITIALLY DROP AT PCPN ONSET...THEN BEGIN TO
RISE LT TNGT IN WRM ADVCTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPR TROFG AND A DEEPENING SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO
THE UPR GT LKS MON. THE LOWS ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS PROGGED FOR A MON
AFTN PASSAGE ACRS OUR RGN. MSTR IS LTD SO MAINTAINED CHC POPS WITH
FROPA. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ARND THE DEEPENING LOW SHOULD
BRING GUSTY SFC WNDS AS MXG BEGINS MON. FCST SOUNDINGS/GUST
TECHNIQUES INDICATE GUSTS TO ARND 50 MPH ARE LIKELY. WL ISSUE A
WIND ADVISORY FM LT MON MRNG INTO ERLY EVE AS WNDS WL LIKELY STAY
GUSTY FOR A FEW HRS AFT FROPA.

COLD ADVCTN KICKS IN AFT FROPA AS BROAD UPR TROFG RMNS ACRS THE GT
LKS AND UPR MIDWEST THRU TUE. STRATOCU IS EXPD...THOUGH SNW SHWR
CHCS WL BE MINIMAL WITH A SW BNDRY LYR FLOW PREVENTING ANY LK
CONNECTIONS OR SGFNT UPSLOPE COMPONENT.

ANOTHER BROAD UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO SET UP BY MID WK...AS A
COASTAL LOW DVLPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC RGN. THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS
TRACK RMNS IN QN...AND THIS WL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE POTENTIAL AMT
AND LOCATION OF SNW THAT THIS SYSTEM BRINGS. THE SREF SOLN LOOKS
VRY REASONABLE ATTM GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC PTN ATTM...WHICH BRINGS SNW
CHCS FM PIT EWD...AND KEEPS THE HEAVIEST PCPN E OF OUR AREA.

TEMPS ARE EXPD TO RCH 10-15 DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS MON...BUT WL DCR
TO ARND 10 DEG BLO AVG BY TUE AND WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LARGE VARIATIONS IN GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG RANGE AND ADJUSTED
FORECAST WITH THE NEW WPC PROGS TEMPERED WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF. AS
STORM SYSTEM MOVES UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS INTO
THANKSGIVING DAY FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL AFTER 00Z WHEN WARM FRONT AND SHORTWAVE WILL
QUICKLY MOVE NORTH AHEAD OF GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE. WIDESPREAD
MVFR VSBY AND CIGS OVERNIGHT TO DAYBREAK. FOR MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE CRANKS UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
WITH GUSTS TO 35KTS EXPECTED MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
     048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ001>004-
     012-021>023-041.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 232144
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
444 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE EAST
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY INDICATES A POTENT TROUGH LIFTING NE INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE
GULF. AT THE SURFACE...A 995MB LOW IS DEVELOPING OVER NRN MS...WITH
A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS AL AND GA. LOCALLY...MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 50S OVER THE BULK OF THE AREA...TO
THE LOW 60S OVER SE PORTIONS. AREAS OF -RA HAVE BEGUN TO ENTER THE
SW PIEDMONT COUNTIES AND INTERIOR NE NC.

THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WILL CROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD DUE
TO A STRONG NEARLY 70KT LLJ. 12HR POPS FOR RAIN TONIGHT WILL REMAIN
AT 100%...AND WILL BE HIGHEST OVER WRN PORTIONS THROUGH SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD THE COAST OVERNIGHT. A
THUNDER MENTION WILL CONTINUE FOR COASTAL NE NC. COASTAL ERN VA AND
SE MD COULD HEAR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IT. SPC HAS CONTINUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE FOR NE NC COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE...AND ANY
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR APPEARS TO ARRIVE ONCE THE STRONGEST FORCING EXITS
THE REGION...SO THE SEVERE THREAT IS MINIMAL. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND 6HR PRESSURE FALLS OF -6MB TO -10MB PER GFS WILL RESULT
IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE COAST.
GUSTS FROM THE SSE DIRECTION OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 50S...WITH READINGS LIKELY TO RISE
AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG FORCING AND SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE SHOULD
RESULT IN A ~6HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN
TONIGHT...WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS AVERAGING 0.5 TO 0.75IN N-CENTRAL
PORTIONS AND 1.00-1.25IN NEAR THE COAST (AND NE NC).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION BY 12Z MON...WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE FAR WRN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUE. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING
EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY INLAND. A GUSTY SW WIND WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S (SEE THE CLIMO
SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS). 20-30% POPS WILL BE CONFINED TO E/SE
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS THE 23/12Z NAM REMAINS AN OUTLIER IN
LINGERING DEEPER MOISTURE.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED INLAND. CLOUDS POTENTIALLY LINGER NEAR THE
COAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE...AND LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TUE. HIGHS TUE
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER MORNING
LOWS FROM THE MID 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE.

23/12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEMONSTRATE AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEAR THE SOUTHEAST CONUS LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT. THIS LOW THEN TRACKS NNE
ALONG THE COAST WED BRINGING RA TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON A BUSY
TRAVEL DAY. OF NOTE THE 23/12Z NAM IS FLATTER AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE...BUT AT THIS TIME THE GFS/ECMWF SCENARIO IS PREFERRED
PER PMDHMD. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SOME WET SN COULD MIX IN AS THE
PCPN TAPERS OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO ANY
ACCUMULATION IS LOW AT THIS TIME...AS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO COOL
THE BOUNDARY LAYER FULLY BY DYNAMICAL COOLING AS ANY CAA IS MINIMAL.
CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE OFF THE 23/00Z GFS SUGGESTS THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SN WILL BE ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES.
CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 30S/LOW
40S INLAND...TO THE MID/UPPER 40S OVER SE PORTIONS...AND THESE WILL
LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. STRONG LO PRES WILL BE JUST OFF THE DE CST AT 00Z
THU...AND WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NNE AND JUST OFF
THE MAINE CST BY 12Z THU. PCPN WILL BE TAPERING OFF OR ENDING FM SW
TO NE WED EVENG INTO EARLY THU MORNG...AND COULD END AS A MIXTURE
OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OR JUST SNOW SHOWERS OVR INLAND/PIEDMONT
COUNTIES. A MAINLY DRY FRONT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO
THU NGT. HI PRES WILL BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI INTO
SAT...THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLC/SE CST FOR SAT AFTN THRU SUN.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S THU...IN THE 40S
FRI...IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S SAT...AND IN THE UPR 40S TO MID
50S SUN. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S THU
MORNG...IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S FRI AND SAT MORNGS...AND IN THE
30S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY
FROM THE COAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
THIS IS PUSHING ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS AND
IT WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
INITIALLY...JUST SEEING SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...BUT SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SLIDING NORTH THROUGH THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TN RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT...THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP THE COAST
AND SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 6Z AND 9Z. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. ALSO
EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUST.

BEHIND THE FRONT...AFTER 9Z...THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
AND STILL BE GUSTY TO AROUND 15 KTS. BUT ONCE IN THE WARM
SECTOR...SHOULD SLOWLY SEE CEILINGS IMPROVE AND COULD POTENTIALLY
SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER 15Z...AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVING IN
AND MIXING HELP CEILINGS TO RISE.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS COMES ON WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE ALONG THE COAST SPREADING RAIN AND LOW
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE MAINTAINED GALE WARNGS AND SCA`S FOR THE WTRS FM THIS EVENG
THRU MON. DESPITE WARM AIR OVR COOL WTR TEMPS...WITH A STRONG
PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT...AND LATEST
NAM12 PROGGING 925 MB WINDS ~75 KT...THINK THAT THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST A FEW HRS OF WINDS AOA 34 KT OVR THE OCEAN TNGT INTO EARLY
MON MORNG. SEAS WILL BLD TO 6-9 FT. GUSTS MAY COME CLOSE TO GALE
FORCE OVR THE BAY AS WELL (AT LEAST AT ELEVATED SITES) WHERE
STRONG SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. THE GALE WARNG ENDS LATE
MON MORNG...BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED...AS GUSTS COULD CONTINUE
IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE THRU THE AFTN HRS. THE SCA HEADLINES ALL END
DURING THE DAY MON...AS WINDS DECREASE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRNT
WHICH CROSSES THE WTRS LATE MON NGT/TUE MORNG. IMPROVING MARINE
CONDITIONS THEN INTO TUE WITH WEAK HI PRES OVR THE AREA. STRONG
NNE OR NW WINDS THEN EXPECTED TUE NGT INTO WED NGT...AS LO PRES
TRACKS NWRD JUST OFF THE EAST CST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ633-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ630>632.
     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...TMG
CLIMATE...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 232144
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
444 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE EAST
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY INDICATES A POTENT TROUGH LIFTING NE INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE
GULF. AT THE SURFACE...A 995MB LOW IS DEVELOPING OVER NRN MS...WITH
A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS AL AND GA. LOCALLY...MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 50S OVER THE BULK OF THE AREA...TO
THE LOW 60S OVER SE PORTIONS. AREAS OF -RA HAVE BEGUN TO ENTER THE
SW PIEDMONT COUNTIES AND INTERIOR NE NC.

THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WILL CROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD DUE
TO A STRONG NEARLY 70KT LLJ. 12HR POPS FOR RAIN TONIGHT WILL REMAIN
AT 100%...AND WILL BE HIGHEST OVER WRN PORTIONS THROUGH SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD THE COAST OVERNIGHT. A
THUNDER MENTION WILL CONTINUE FOR COASTAL NE NC. COASTAL ERN VA AND
SE MD COULD HEAR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IT. SPC HAS CONTINUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE FOR NE NC COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE...AND ANY
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR APPEARS TO ARRIVE ONCE THE STRONGEST FORCING EXITS
THE REGION...SO THE SEVERE THREAT IS MINIMAL. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND 6HR PRESSURE FALLS OF -6MB TO -10MB PER GFS WILL RESULT
IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE COAST.
GUSTS FROM THE SSE DIRECTION OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 50S...WITH READINGS LIKELY TO RISE
AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG FORCING AND SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE SHOULD
RESULT IN A ~6HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN
TONIGHT...WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS AVERAGING 0.5 TO 0.75IN N-CENTRAL
PORTIONS AND 1.00-1.25IN NEAR THE COAST (AND NE NC).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION BY 12Z MON...WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE FAR WRN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUE. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING
EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY INLAND. A GUSTY SW WIND WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S (SEE THE CLIMO
SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS). 20-30% POPS WILL BE CONFINED TO E/SE
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS THE 23/12Z NAM REMAINS AN OUTLIER IN
LINGERING DEEPER MOISTURE.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED INLAND. CLOUDS POTENTIALLY LINGER NEAR THE
COAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE...AND LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TUE. HIGHS TUE
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER MORNING
LOWS FROM THE MID 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE.

23/12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEMONSTRATE AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEAR THE SOUTHEAST CONUS LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT. THIS LOW THEN TRACKS NNE
ALONG THE COAST WED BRINGING RA TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON A BUSY
TRAVEL DAY. OF NOTE THE 23/12Z NAM IS FLATTER AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE...BUT AT THIS TIME THE GFS/ECMWF SCENARIO IS PREFERRED
PER PMDHMD. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SOME WET SN COULD MIX IN AS THE
PCPN TAPERS OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO ANY
ACCUMULATION IS LOW AT THIS TIME...AS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO COOL
THE BOUNDARY LAYER FULLY BY DYNAMICAL COOLING AS ANY CAA IS MINIMAL.
CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE OFF THE 23/00Z GFS SUGGESTS THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SN WILL BE ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES.
CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 30S/LOW
40S INLAND...TO THE MID/UPPER 40S OVER SE PORTIONS...AND THESE WILL
LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. STRONG LO PRES WILL BE JUST OFF THE DE CST AT 00Z
THU...AND WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NNE AND JUST OFF
THE MAINE CST BY 12Z THU. PCPN WILL BE TAPERING OFF OR ENDING FM SW
TO NE WED EVENG INTO EARLY THU MORNG...AND COULD END AS A MIXTURE
OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OR JUST SNOW SHOWERS OVR INLAND/PIEDMONT
COUNTIES. A MAINLY DRY FRONT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO
THU NGT. HI PRES WILL BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI INTO
SAT...THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLC/SE CST FOR SAT AFTN THRU SUN.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S THU...IN THE 40S
FRI...IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S SAT...AND IN THE UPR 40S TO MID
50S SUN. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S THU
MORNG...IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S FRI AND SAT MORNGS...AND IN THE
30S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY
FROM THE COAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
THIS IS PUSHING ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS AND
IT WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
INITIALLY...JUST SEEING SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...BUT SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SLIDING NORTH THROUGH THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TN RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT...THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP THE COAST
AND SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 6Z AND 9Z. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. ALSO
EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUST.

BEHIND THE FRONT...AFTER 9Z...THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
AND STILL BE GUSTY TO AROUND 15 KTS. BUT ONCE IN THE WARM
SECTOR...SHOULD SLOWLY SEE CEILINGS IMPROVE AND COULD POTENTIALLY
SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER 15Z...AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVING IN
AND MIXING HELP CEILINGS TO RISE.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS COMES ON WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE ALONG THE COAST SPREADING RAIN AND LOW
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE MAINTAINED GALE WARNGS AND SCA`S FOR THE WTRS FM THIS EVENG
THRU MON. DESPITE WARM AIR OVR COOL WTR TEMPS...WITH A STRONG
PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT...AND LATEST
NAM12 PROGGING 925 MB WINDS ~75 KT...THINK THAT THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST A FEW HRS OF WINDS AOA 34 KT OVR THE OCEAN TNGT INTO EARLY
MON MORNG. SEAS WILL BLD TO 6-9 FT. GUSTS MAY COME CLOSE TO GALE
FORCE OVR THE BAY AS WELL (AT LEAST AT ELEVATED SITES) WHERE
STRONG SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. THE GALE WARNG ENDS LATE
MON MORNG...BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED...AS GUSTS COULD CONTINUE
IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE THRU THE AFTN HRS. THE SCA HEADLINES ALL END
DURING THE DAY MON...AS WINDS DECREASE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRNT
WHICH CROSSES THE WTRS LATE MON NGT/TUE MORNG. IMPROVING MARINE
CONDITIONS THEN INTO TUE WITH WEAK HI PRES OVR THE AREA. STRONG
NNE OR NW WINDS THEN EXPECTED TUE NGT INTO WED NGT...AS LO PRES
TRACKS NWRD JUST OFF THE EAST CST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ633-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ630>632.
     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...TMG
CLIMATE...AKQ






000
FXUS61 KPHI 232119
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
419 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE IN MISSOURI WILL ARRIVE IN THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES MONDAY YANKING A STRONG WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH OUR REGION
EARLY MONDAY. IT THEN SWEEPS A COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST MONDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATE TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM FORMING
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING MOVES EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND BY THANKSGIVING. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA
THURSDAY EVENING AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE CAROLINAS NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A POTENT SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL EVOLVE THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS INVOLVES A
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL AMPLIFY FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE
GULF COAST STATES, WHICH DRIVES A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE, A BUILDING RIDGE NEAR THE
EAST COAST WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH ITS CENTER MAINLY EAST OF
FLORIDA.

THE STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST TONIGHT IS A
RESULT OF A POTENT 250 MB JET CARVING IT OUT. AS THIS OCCURS, THE
HEIGHT FIELDS TIGHTEN QUITE A BIT ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST AND SOUTH
SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS WILL DRIVE AN INCREASINGLY ROBUST WIND
FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE COURSE OF TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS,
SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN COMBINATION WITH STRENGTHENING WAA WILL DRIVE
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS OUR AREA. AS A RESULT, ABOUT A
4-6 HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SURGE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. AS THE THETA-E
ADVECTION REALLY RAMPS UP THIS EVENING, THE LOW-LEVEL DEW POINTS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND THIS WILL LEAD TO A JUMP IN PW VALUES.
THEREFORE, SOME OF THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WHICH
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. WE THEREFORE
CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE THE POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS
EVENING WITH CATEGORICAL POPS EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY FORECAST TO ARRIVE ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES ESPECIALLY LATE, AND THIS COULD PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.

AS THE FLOW INCREASES ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THE INJECTION OF A WARM
AIRMASS WORKS IN ACROSS THE AREA, WE SHOULD START TO MIX BETTER
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 AND IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS ALONG WITH WAA WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR
CWA. AS A RESULT, WE CONTINUED TO INDICATE RISING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. BY DAYBREAK, SOME EAST AND SOUTHERN AREAS MAY
BE INTO THE LOWER 60S. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE BETTER
MOMENTUM TRANSFER DEVELOPING LATE ESPECIALLY THE FARTHER SOUTHEAST
ONE GOES ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER GIVEN THE WAA PATTERN THERE SHOULD
BE A DECENT INVERSION PRESENT DURING THE NIGHT EVEN WITH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING. AS A RESULT, THE DEPTH OF THE MIXED LAYER
SHOULD NOT ALLOW THE TRANSFER OF THE RATHER ROBUST WINDS WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL JET DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THERE IS A CHC SOME FOG DEVELOPS
LATE ESPECIALLY AS THE WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR SURGES IN.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, MOSTLY A NAM/GFS MOS BLEND WAS USED AND
THESE WERE SET TO OCCUR THIS EVENING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A
TEMPERATURE RISE WAS THEN INDICATED THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
RECORD WARMTH CERTAINLY POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA.

A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR WEST, AND THIS
WILL DRIVE A POTENT SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARD
HUDSON BAY. THIS PLACES OUR AREA WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO ITS EAST. THE MAIN LOW-LEVEL JET AND LARGE
SCALE LIFT AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL FORCING IS FORECAST TO
QUICKLY SHIFT TO OUR NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS, A
DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS OUR AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAIN TAPERING TO
SOME SHOWERS AND ENDING FAIRLY QUICKLY IN THE MORNING FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST. THEREFORE, THE POPS DECREASE RATHER QUICKLY DURING THE
MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HANGING ON FOR A
LITTLE WHILE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS AND ALONG THE COAST, HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS. AFTER THAT, THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT DRYING OCCURS ALOFT FIRST ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRY
SLOT, HOWEVER WITH OUR AREA BEING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND STILL
STRONG WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE WE SHOULD MIX OUT MUCH OF THE LOWER
CLOUDS. WHILE A FEW SHOWERS COULD BE AROUND DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON, THE SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SHOW A MID LEVEL CAP
DEVELOPING ALONG WITH THE DRYING. THEREFORE, THIS MAY LIMIT ANY
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FOR AWHILE DESPITE SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT. THIS
BRINGS US TO THE WARMTH AND WINDS.

THE TEMPERATURES AT 925 MB ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND +15C DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AS WE LOSE THE LOWER
CLOUDS AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS, MIXING WILL DEEPEN. THIS WILL
BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. IF WE
CLEAR OUT MORE, THEN TEMPERATURES COULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. FOR NOW, USED A MOS BLEND BUT DID ADJUST UP SOME
ESPECIALLY FOR THE INTERSTATE 95 AREA ON SOUTH AND EAST.

AS FOR THE SURFACE WINDS MONDAY, WHILE THE INTENSE LOW-LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST TO BE SHIFTING TO OUR NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY, THE WIND
FIELD AT 925 MB IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40-50 KNOT RANGE. THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW BETTER MIXING BECOMING ESTABLISHED AND IF WE
WARM THE BOUNDARY EVEN MORE THIS DEPTH WOULD INCREASE SOME. IT STILL
APPEARS THOUGH THAT WE DO NOT MIX UP FULLY TO THE STRONGEST WINDS,
AND THEREFORE WE CARRY GUSTS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WE DID LEAN
CLOSER TO THE GFS WINDS WHICH ARE A LITTLE STRONGER AT THE SURFACE
AND BOOSTED THE GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
**WINTER STORM-EVENT VICINITY I-95 CORRIDOR WESTWARD WEDNESDAY**

500MB: THE STRONG SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES STORM
LIFTS NEWD INTO QUEBEC MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT TROUGH IS ON A MORE
SOUTHERLY ROUTE AND CROSSES THE EAST COAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH MORE COHERENCE IN ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS THAN PRESENTED 24 HOURS
AGO. HEIGHTS RISE TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND BUT A GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES DIFFICULT
TO DISCERN IN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN.

TEMPERATURES: TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER HAVE SO FAR
AVERAGED 4 TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH YESTERDAY THE 10TH
CONSECUTIVE DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A BRIEF HIATUS FROM
THE COLD IS AT HAND BUT EVEN SO...THE MONTH AS A WHOLE PROJECTS TO
AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL. DID A QUICK EXTRAPOLATION OF MAX/MIN
FOR THE REST OF THE MONTH BASED OUR OFFICE FORECAST AND WE ARE
PROJECTING 2.5 TO 3.5 DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY AVG OF 47.6 DEGREES.

CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES TUESDAY SHOULD BE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL (1201AM TUESDAY MORNING HIGHS COULD BE 60-63F PHL EASTWARD),
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY 6
TO 14 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DEPENDING WHEN THE PCPN BEGINS. THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL AND NEXT SUNDAY IN MAY WARM MORE THAN WE HAVE FORECAST.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/23 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN THE 12Z/23 GFS
MOS WAS NOT APPLIED WEDNESDAY...IT LOOKS TOO WARM BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES).
THEREAFTER (THURSDAY ONWARD) THE 1522Z/23 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE
WAS USED STRAIGHT UP. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED AGAINST THE
12Z/23 ECMWF THROUGH THURSDAY TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK
WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES.
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/23
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. THE SREF ALSO HAS
SIGNIFICANT PROBABILITIES FOR 1 AND 4 INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BY 7PM
WEDNESDAY I95 CORRIDOR WESTWARD BUT COULD BE BIASED TOO COLD! THE
12Z/23 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05 ARE USED AFTER 00Z/THURSDAY AS A
CHECK AGAINST OTHER AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

THE DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CHANCE OF A LOW TOP SHOWER OR SPRINKLE.
OTHERWISE CLEARING AND MAYBE A BIT BREEZY (WEST WIND GUSTS 20 MPH
FOR A TIME) AFTER THE EVENING CFP WHEN WE SEE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WIND FORECAST INCREASES AROUND 03-06Z. STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING WHEN TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 60S. GUIDANCE TEMPS: USED THE WARMER OF THE AVBL TEMP
GUIDANCE AND BLENDED WITH THE EVEN WARMER 2M NAM TEMPS AT 00Z AND
03Z/25 (PRIOR TO CFP).

TUESDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY (FIRST CIRRUS FROM GULF
COAST SHORT WAVE MOVING EASTWARD VCNTY TEX/LA AND ALSO RRQ STRONG
250MB JET OF 200 KT /230 MPH/ NEAR L ONTARIO). FOR THE SURFACE...AM
EXPECTING WESTERLY WIND GUSTS 25 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING CLOUDY WITH LIGHT WIND. SEASONABLE TEMPS.
LIGHT RAIN SPREADS UP ONTO THE DELMARVA AND POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY
TO PHL BY 12Z TUESDAY.


WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OUR MODEL OF CHOICE LEANS HEAVILY ON THE
ECMWF WITH GFS WPC AND SREF MIX. A COASTAL STORM DEEPENS A MB PER
HOUR AS IT RACES NEWD EAST OF THE MID ATLC COAST. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT AIDED BY RRQ OF 200KT 250MB JET OVER THE GULF OF ST
LAWRENCE.

ONE QUARTER TO 1.25 INCH AMOUNTS EXPECTED...HEAVIEST PROBABLY IN NJ.

SNOW MAP POSTED ALONG WITH BRIEFING PACKAGE TO GIVE OUR FIRST
EFFORT AT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE ADJUSTMENTS. THINKING THAT THIS FORECAST CAN
EASILY BE IN ERROR 3 INCHES EITHER SIDE OF WHAT IS POSTED ON OUR
WEB SITE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE ON SNOW AMOUNTS REACHING THE POSTED VALUES IS HIGHEST
FROM READING PA THROUGH THE POCONOS INTO FAR NW NJ. CONFIDENCE
LESSENS SOUTHEASTWARD.

NO MATTER...THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF SNOW IMPACTING TRAVEL
SOMETIME WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY JUST WEST OF
I-95. THE 12Z/23 ECMWF IS THE WARMEST MODEL WITH THE GFS COLDER
BUT ALSO PROBABLY TOO FAR EAST. THE EC HAS A DEFINITE ABOVE
FREEZING LAYER BETWEEN 850 AND 700MB. THE GFS NOT.

SNOW/RAIN: I-95 CORRIDOR OR 30 MILES NORTHWEST LOOKS TO BE GENERAL
DEMARCATION BETWEEN MOSTLY SNOW AND MOSTLY RAIN. DEPENDING ON YOUR
MODEL SELECTED AND THERE WILL BE ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED...IT COULD BE
RAIN-SNOW CHANGING TO ALL RAIN THEN ENDING AS SNOW FOR I95; MOSTLY
SNOW FURTHER WEST AND NORTH THROUGH EASTERN PA AND NW NJ.
ELEVATIONS WILL ACCUMULATE BEST WHERE ITS COLDER.

TEMPS FOR THE WEDNESDAY FCST ARE THE 330 AM PHI FCST BLENDED 50 50
WITH THE 00Z-12Z/23 ECMWF 2M TEMPS AND DID NOT USE THE 12Z/23 MEXMOS
TEMPS WHICH LOOKED 3 TO 6 DEGREES TOO WARM. MAX TEMPS APPEAR TO BE
OCCURRING FORENOON BEFORE PCPN WET BULBS COLDER READINGS DURING THE
AFTN.

TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE AT OR JUST ABOVE THE 12Z/23 GFS MEXMOS
VALUES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE WPC TEMPS.

THOSE LOOKING AT THE MODELS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT GUIDANCE DOES NOT
HANDLE SNOW COOLING THE SFC TEMPERATURES AND THE COLUMN WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW NOT TOO FAR WEST OF PHL WITH ONLY THE LOWEST
1000 FEET AIR TEMP STRUCTURE DETERMINING THE SURFACE PTYPE.

THE LARGER ACCUMS FOR THIS EVENT ALONG I-95 MAY BE RESERVED FOR THE
EVENING AS PCPN PROBABLY CHANGES TO ALL SNOW.

SE OF I95...WHICH INCLUDES MOST OF MD E SHORE AND DELAWARE AND
COASTAL NJ...MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED. IT COULD END AS A PERIOD OF
WET SNOW OR FLURRIES... ALL DEPENDENT ON BANDING TAIL (500 MB VORT
MAX TRACK/STRENGTH).

THURSDAY...A SECONDARY TROUGH PASSAGE...SFC COLD FRONT WITH
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE (WINDEX?) MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW
SHOWERS NW OF I95. FOR NOW ONLY GRIDDED IN THE POCONOS.

FRIDAY- SUNDAY...WPC GUIDANCE AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE
CAROLINAS. LOWS TEMPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING MIGHT BE AROUND
8 DEGREES COLDER THAN FORECAST NORTH OF I78 IF THERE IS SNOW
COVER (10 TO 15F).

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR, WITH SOME CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 15,000
FEET. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS, BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY
TOWARD EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR TO START, THEN CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY LOWER
TO MVFR AND IFR /LOCAL LIFR/ AS A WARM FRONT ARRIVES. A PERIOD OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES. THIS WILL ALSO REDUCE THE VISIBILITIES, WITH EVEN SOME FOG
POSSIBLE LATE ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST AND FROM NEAR KABE ON
NORTHWARD. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT AROUND 5 KNOTS WILL INCREASE
TO NEAR 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND COULD BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES. THE
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE FROM NEAR THE KPHL METRO ON SOUTH AND
EAST. THE AMOUNT OF GUSTINESS THAT OCCURS LATE CARRIES LOWER
CONFIDENCE. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE MAINLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF KPHL. A POTENT LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA, AND THEREFORE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS INCLUDED FOR THE
OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...MVFR/IFR /LOCAL LIFR/ CEILINGS FOR A TIME IN THE MORNING,
THEN CEILINGS SHOULD RISE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON AS A MUCH WARMER
AIRMASS IS IN PLACE. IT IS POSSIBLE THOUGH THAT SOME LOW CLOUDS
LINGER LONGER ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST AND NORTH OF KTTN AND
KABE. RAIN DEPARTS EARLY, HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WILL
BE POSSIBLE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 KNOTS. THE CORE OF LOW-LEVEL JET SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE
DURING THE DAY, THEREFORE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE
DURING THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. WESTERLY WINDS MAY BRIEFLY
GUST 20-25 KT MONDAY NIGHT SUBSEQUENT TO A CFP THAT COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A SPRINKLE. WEST WINDS SHOULD GUST 25 KT ON TUESDAY
THEN DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THEY TURN NORTH
TO NORTHWEST. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THIS SCENARIO.

WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL STORM WILL BRING MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS IN
RAIN COAST (KACY/KMIV), RAIN SNOW KTTN KPNE KTPHL AND KILG AND
MOSTLY SNOW KABE AND KRDG. IN ADDITION, EXPECT PERSISTENT NORTHERLY
OR NORTHEASTERLY WINDS FOR GENERALLY THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY
WITH GUSTS 12-25 KT FROM WEST TO EAST. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END AS
SNOW MOST TAF SITES AT NIGHT EXCEPT POSSIBLY NOT AT KMIV/KACY.

SIGNIFICANT PAVEMENT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE KRDG/KABE ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THANKSGIVING...CONDITIONS SLOWLY RETURN TO VFR AND WINDS SHIFT TO
WESTERLY OR NORTHWEST. THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CONDS IN SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY MAINLY JUST N OF KRDG AND KABE. WINDS MAY
GUST TO 25 KT.

FRIDAY...PROBABLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR WEST LATER TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT ALONG
WITH AN INCREASINGLY ROBUST WIND FIELD. THE 925 MB WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 50-70 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT, THEN DECREASE
TO ABOUT 40-50 KNOTS ON MONDAY. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
BETTER MIXING OCCURS FOR AWHILE TONIGHT BEFORE A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS
ARRIVES LATE AND DURING MONDAY. ON MONDAY, THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT A VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION IS PRESENT WHICH
WOULD KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE. THEREFORE, A GALE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT STARTING AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR ALL OUR
ZONES /LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR UPPER DELAWARE BAY/ AND CONTINUES
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AS WE GO THROUGH MONDAY, THE BEST MIXING
SHOULD SHIFT NEARSHORE AND OVER LAND. THEREFORE, WE DID NOT EXTEND
THE GALE WARNING ATTM. THE SEAS WILL BUILD QUITE A BIT DURING THE
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS, ALTHOUGH JUST HOW
MUCH WIND ACTUALLY MAKES IT TO THE SURFACE WILL INFLUENCE THE SEAS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...SW WIND SHIFTING TO WEST WITH THE CFP. SCA LIKELY.

TUESDAY...SCA EXPECTED DURING COLD AIR ADVECTION ON WESTERLY FLOW.

TUESDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY BELOW SCA CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY...STRONG NORTHEAST SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST SCA WITH A
POSSIBLE GALE. SEAS FORECAST ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS MAY BE 2
TO 4 FEET TOO LOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THANKSGIVING...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY FALL BELOW SCA
CRITERIA BUT ATLANTIC SEAS MAY NOT DROP BELOW 5 FT TIL AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...POSSIBLE SCA COLD AIR ADVECTION WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO THE
REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS BELOW FOR OUR FOUR
PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING UNBROKEN PERIOD OF
RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL SNOWFALL DATA.

BEST CHANCE OF COMING CLOSE TO A "DAILY" RECORD AS OF THIS SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS COLLABORATION APPEARS TO BE KABE.

DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS:

NOVEMBER 26TH:               NOVEMBER 27TH:       PERIOD OF RECORD:

ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955    1.2 INCHES 1978            1874

PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898         6.9 INCHES 1949,1938       1872

ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950         4.5 INCHES 1978            1894

ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925         7.0 INCHES 1938            1922

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 418
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE/NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...DRAG 418
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 418
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
CLIMATE...KLINE







000
FXUS61 KPHI 232119
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
419 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE IN MISSOURI WILL ARRIVE IN THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES MONDAY YANKING A STRONG WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH OUR REGION
EARLY MONDAY. IT THEN SWEEPS A COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST MONDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATE TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM FORMING
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING MOVES EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND BY THANKSGIVING. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA
THURSDAY EVENING AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE CAROLINAS NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A POTENT SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL EVOLVE THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS INVOLVES A
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL AMPLIFY FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE
GULF COAST STATES, WHICH DRIVES A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE, A BUILDING RIDGE NEAR THE
EAST COAST WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH ITS CENTER MAINLY EAST OF
FLORIDA.

THE STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST TONIGHT IS A
RESULT OF A POTENT 250 MB JET CARVING IT OUT. AS THIS OCCURS, THE
HEIGHT FIELDS TIGHTEN QUITE A BIT ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST AND SOUTH
SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS WILL DRIVE AN INCREASINGLY ROBUST WIND
FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE COURSE OF TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS,
SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN COMBINATION WITH STRENGTHENING WAA WILL DRIVE
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS OUR AREA. AS A RESULT, ABOUT A
4-6 HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SURGE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. AS THE THETA-E
ADVECTION REALLY RAMPS UP THIS EVENING, THE LOW-LEVEL DEW POINTS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND THIS WILL LEAD TO A JUMP IN PW VALUES.
THEREFORE, SOME OF THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WHICH
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. WE THEREFORE
CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE THE POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS
EVENING WITH CATEGORICAL POPS EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY FORECAST TO ARRIVE ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES ESPECIALLY LATE, AND THIS COULD PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.

AS THE FLOW INCREASES ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THE INJECTION OF A WARM
AIRMASS WORKS IN ACROSS THE AREA, WE SHOULD START TO MIX BETTER
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 AND IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS ALONG WITH WAA WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR
CWA. AS A RESULT, WE CONTINUED TO INDICATE RISING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. BY DAYBREAK, SOME EAST AND SOUTHERN AREAS MAY
BE INTO THE LOWER 60S. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE BETTER
MOMENTUM TRANSFER DEVELOPING LATE ESPECIALLY THE FARTHER SOUTHEAST
ONE GOES ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER GIVEN THE WAA PATTERN THERE SHOULD
BE A DECENT INVERSION PRESENT DURING THE NIGHT EVEN WITH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING. AS A RESULT, THE DEPTH OF THE MIXED LAYER
SHOULD NOT ALLOW THE TRANSFER OF THE RATHER ROBUST WINDS WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL JET DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THERE IS A CHC SOME FOG DEVELOPS
LATE ESPECIALLY AS THE WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR SURGES IN.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, MOSTLY A NAM/GFS MOS BLEND WAS USED AND
THESE WERE SET TO OCCUR THIS EVENING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A
TEMPERATURE RISE WAS THEN INDICATED THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
RECORD WARMTH CERTAINLY POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA.

A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR WEST, AND THIS
WILL DRIVE A POTENT SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARD
HUDSON BAY. THIS PLACES OUR AREA WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO ITS EAST. THE MAIN LOW-LEVEL JET AND LARGE
SCALE LIFT AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL FORCING IS FORECAST TO
QUICKLY SHIFT TO OUR NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS, A
DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS OUR AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAIN TAPERING TO
SOME SHOWERS AND ENDING FAIRLY QUICKLY IN THE MORNING FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST. THEREFORE, THE POPS DECREASE RATHER QUICKLY DURING THE
MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HANGING ON FOR A
LITTLE WHILE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS AND ALONG THE COAST, HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS. AFTER THAT, THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT DRYING OCCURS ALOFT FIRST ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRY
SLOT, HOWEVER WITH OUR AREA BEING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND STILL
STRONG WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE WE SHOULD MIX OUT MUCH OF THE LOWER
CLOUDS. WHILE A FEW SHOWERS COULD BE AROUND DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON, THE SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SHOW A MID LEVEL CAP
DEVELOPING ALONG WITH THE DRYING. THEREFORE, THIS MAY LIMIT ANY
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FOR AWHILE DESPITE SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT. THIS
BRINGS US TO THE WARMTH AND WINDS.

THE TEMPERATURES AT 925 MB ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND +15C DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AS WE LOSE THE LOWER
CLOUDS AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS, MIXING WILL DEEPEN. THIS WILL
BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. IF WE
CLEAR OUT MORE, THEN TEMPERATURES COULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. FOR NOW, USED A MOS BLEND BUT DID ADJUST UP SOME
ESPECIALLY FOR THE INTERSTATE 95 AREA ON SOUTH AND EAST.

AS FOR THE SURFACE WINDS MONDAY, WHILE THE INTENSE LOW-LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST TO BE SHIFTING TO OUR NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY, THE WIND
FIELD AT 925 MB IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40-50 KNOT RANGE. THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW BETTER MIXING BECOMING ESTABLISHED AND IF WE
WARM THE BOUNDARY EVEN MORE THIS DEPTH WOULD INCREASE SOME. IT STILL
APPEARS THOUGH THAT WE DO NOT MIX UP FULLY TO THE STRONGEST WINDS,
AND THEREFORE WE CARRY GUSTS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WE DID LEAN
CLOSER TO THE GFS WINDS WHICH ARE A LITTLE STRONGER AT THE SURFACE
AND BOOSTED THE GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
**WINTER STORM-EVENT VICINITY I-95 CORRIDOR WESTWARD WEDNESDAY**

500MB: THE STRONG SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES STORM
LIFTS NEWD INTO QUEBEC MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT TROUGH IS ON A MORE
SOUTHERLY ROUTE AND CROSSES THE EAST COAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH MORE COHERENCE IN ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS THAN PRESENTED 24 HOURS
AGO. HEIGHTS RISE TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND BUT A GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES DIFFICULT
TO DISCERN IN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN.

TEMPERATURES: TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER HAVE SO FAR
AVERAGED 4 TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH YESTERDAY THE 10TH
CONSECUTIVE DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A BRIEF HIATUS FROM
THE COLD IS AT HAND BUT EVEN SO...THE MONTH AS A WHOLE PROJECTS TO
AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL. DID A QUICK EXTRAPOLATION OF MAX/MIN
FOR THE REST OF THE MONTH BASED OUR OFFICE FORECAST AND WE ARE
PROJECTING 2.5 TO 3.5 DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY AVG OF 47.6 DEGREES.

CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES TUESDAY SHOULD BE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL (1201AM TUESDAY MORNING HIGHS COULD BE 60-63F PHL EASTWARD),
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY 6
TO 14 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DEPENDING WHEN THE PCPN BEGINS. THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL AND NEXT SUNDAY IN MAY WARM MORE THAN WE HAVE FORECAST.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/23 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN THE 12Z/23 GFS
MOS WAS NOT APPLIED WEDNESDAY...IT LOOKS TOO WARM BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES).
THEREAFTER (THURSDAY ONWARD) THE 1522Z/23 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE
WAS USED STRAIGHT UP. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED AGAINST THE
12Z/23 ECMWF THROUGH THURSDAY TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK
WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES.
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/23
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. THE SREF ALSO HAS
SIGNIFICANT PROBABILITIES FOR 1 AND 4 INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BY 7PM
WEDNESDAY I95 CORRIDOR WESTWARD BUT COULD BE BIASED TOO COLD! THE
12Z/23 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05 ARE USED AFTER 00Z/THURSDAY AS A
CHECK AGAINST OTHER AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

THE DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CHANCE OF A LOW TOP SHOWER OR SPRINKLE.
OTHERWISE CLEARING AND MAYBE A BIT BREEZY (WEST WIND GUSTS 20 MPH
FOR A TIME) AFTER THE EVENING CFP WHEN WE SEE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WIND FORECAST INCREASES AROUND 03-06Z. STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING WHEN TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 60S. GUIDANCE TEMPS: USED THE WARMER OF THE AVBL TEMP
GUIDANCE AND BLENDED WITH THE EVEN WARMER 2M NAM TEMPS AT 00Z AND
03Z/25 (PRIOR TO CFP).

TUESDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY (FIRST CIRRUS FROM GULF
COAST SHORT WAVE MOVING EASTWARD VCNTY TEX/LA AND ALSO RRQ STRONG
250MB JET OF 200 KT /230 MPH/ NEAR L ONTARIO). FOR THE SURFACE...AM
EXPECTING WESTERLY WIND GUSTS 25 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING CLOUDY WITH LIGHT WIND. SEASONABLE TEMPS.
LIGHT RAIN SPREADS UP ONTO THE DELMARVA AND POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY
TO PHL BY 12Z TUESDAY.


WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OUR MODEL OF CHOICE LEANS HEAVILY ON THE
ECMWF WITH GFS WPC AND SREF MIX. A COASTAL STORM DEEPENS A MB PER
HOUR AS IT RACES NEWD EAST OF THE MID ATLC COAST. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT AIDED BY RRQ OF 200KT 250MB JET OVER THE GULF OF ST
LAWRENCE.

ONE QUARTER TO 1.25 INCH AMOUNTS EXPECTED...HEAVIEST PROBABLY IN NJ.

SNOW MAP POSTED ALONG WITH BRIEFING PACKAGE TO GIVE OUR FIRST
EFFORT AT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE ADJUSTMENTS. THINKING THAT THIS FORECAST CAN
EASILY BE IN ERROR 3 INCHES EITHER SIDE OF WHAT IS POSTED ON OUR
WEB SITE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE ON SNOW AMOUNTS REACHING THE POSTED VALUES IS HIGHEST
FROM READING PA THROUGH THE POCONOS INTO FAR NW NJ. CONFIDENCE
LESSENS SOUTHEASTWARD.

NO MATTER...THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF SNOW IMPACTING TRAVEL
SOMETIME WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY JUST WEST OF
I-95. THE 12Z/23 ECMWF IS THE WARMEST MODEL WITH THE GFS COLDER
BUT ALSO PROBABLY TOO FAR EAST. THE EC HAS A DEFINITE ABOVE
FREEZING LAYER BETWEEN 850 AND 700MB. THE GFS NOT.

SNOW/RAIN: I-95 CORRIDOR OR 30 MILES NORTHWEST LOOKS TO BE GENERAL
DEMARCATION BETWEEN MOSTLY SNOW AND MOSTLY RAIN. DEPENDING ON YOUR
MODEL SELECTED AND THERE WILL BE ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED...IT COULD BE
RAIN-SNOW CHANGING TO ALL RAIN THEN ENDING AS SNOW FOR I95; MOSTLY
SNOW FURTHER WEST AND NORTH THROUGH EASTERN PA AND NW NJ.
ELEVATIONS WILL ACCUMULATE BEST WHERE ITS COLDER.

TEMPS FOR THE WEDNESDAY FCST ARE THE 330 AM PHI FCST BLENDED 50 50
WITH THE 00Z-12Z/23 ECMWF 2M TEMPS AND DID NOT USE THE 12Z/23 MEXMOS
TEMPS WHICH LOOKED 3 TO 6 DEGREES TOO WARM. MAX TEMPS APPEAR TO BE
OCCURRING FORENOON BEFORE PCPN WET BULBS COLDER READINGS DURING THE
AFTN.

TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE AT OR JUST ABOVE THE 12Z/23 GFS MEXMOS
VALUES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE WPC TEMPS.

THOSE LOOKING AT THE MODELS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT GUIDANCE DOES NOT
HANDLE SNOW COOLING THE SFC TEMPERATURES AND THE COLUMN WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW NOT TOO FAR WEST OF PHL WITH ONLY THE LOWEST
1000 FEET AIR TEMP STRUCTURE DETERMINING THE SURFACE PTYPE.

THE LARGER ACCUMS FOR THIS EVENT ALONG I-95 MAY BE RESERVED FOR THE
EVENING AS PCPN PROBABLY CHANGES TO ALL SNOW.

SE OF I95...WHICH INCLUDES MOST OF MD E SHORE AND DELAWARE AND
COASTAL NJ...MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED. IT COULD END AS A PERIOD OF
WET SNOW OR FLURRIES... ALL DEPENDENT ON BANDING TAIL (500 MB VORT
MAX TRACK/STRENGTH).

THURSDAY...A SECONDARY TROUGH PASSAGE...SFC COLD FRONT WITH
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE (WINDEX?) MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW
SHOWERS NW OF I95. FOR NOW ONLY GRIDDED IN THE POCONOS.

FRIDAY- SUNDAY...WPC GUIDANCE AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE
CAROLINAS. LOWS TEMPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING MIGHT BE AROUND
8 DEGREES COLDER THAN FORECAST NORTH OF I78 IF THERE IS SNOW
COVER (10 TO 15F).

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR, WITH SOME CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 15,000
FEET. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS, BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY
TOWARD EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR TO START, THEN CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY LOWER
TO MVFR AND IFR /LOCAL LIFR/ AS A WARM FRONT ARRIVES. A PERIOD OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES. THIS WILL ALSO REDUCE THE VISIBILITIES, WITH EVEN SOME FOG
POSSIBLE LATE ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST AND FROM NEAR KABE ON
NORTHWARD. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT AROUND 5 KNOTS WILL INCREASE
TO NEAR 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND COULD BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES. THE
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE FROM NEAR THE KPHL METRO ON SOUTH AND
EAST. THE AMOUNT OF GUSTINESS THAT OCCURS LATE CARRIES LOWER
CONFIDENCE. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE MAINLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF KPHL. A POTENT LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA, AND THEREFORE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS INCLUDED FOR THE
OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...MVFR/IFR /LOCAL LIFR/ CEILINGS FOR A TIME IN THE MORNING,
THEN CEILINGS SHOULD RISE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON AS A MUCH WARMER
AIRMASS IS IN PLACE. IT IS POSSIBLE THOUGH THAT SOME LOW CLOUDS
LINGER LONGER ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST AND NORTH OF KTTN AND
KABE. RAIN DEPARTS EARLY, HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WILL
BE POSSIBLE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 KNOTS. THE CORE OF LOW-LEVEL JET SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE
DURING THE DAY, THEREFORE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE
DURING THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. WESTERLY WINDS MAY BRIEFLY
GUST 20-25 KT MONDAY NIGHT SUBSEQUENT TO A CFP THAT COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A SPRINKLE. WEST WINDS SHOULD GUST 25 KT ON TUESDAY
THEN DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THEY TURN NORTH
TO NORTHWEST. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THIS SCENARIO.

WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL STORM WILL BRING MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS IN
RAIN COAST (KACY/KMIV), RAIN SNOW KTTN KPNE KTPHL AND KILG AND
MOSTLY SNOW KABE AND KRDG. IN ADDITION, EXPECT PERSISTENT NORTHERLY
OR NORTHEASTERLY WINDS FOR GENERALLY THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY
WITH GUSTS 12-25 KT FROM WEST TO EAST. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END AS
SNOW MOST TAF SITES AT NIGHT EXCEPT POSSIBLY NOT AT KMIV/KACY.

SIGNIFICANT PAVEMENT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE KRDG/KABE ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THANKSGIVING...CONDITIONS SLOWLY RETURN TO VFR AND WINDS SHIFT TO
WESTERLY OR NORTHWEST. THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CONDS IN SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY MAINLY JUST N OF KRDG AND KABE. WINDS MAY
GUST TO 25 KT.

FRIDAY...PROBABLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR WEST LATER TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT ALONG
WITH AN INCREASINGLY ROBUST WIND FIELD. THE 925 MB WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 50-70 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT, THEN DECREASE
TO ABOUT 40-50 KNOTS ON MONDAY. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
BETTER MIXING OCCURS FOR AWHILE TONIGHT BEFORE A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS
ARRIVES LATE AND DURING MONDAY. ON MONDAY, THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT A VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION IS PRESENT WHICH
WOULD KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE. THEREFORE, A GALE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT STARTING AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR ALL OUR
ZONES /LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR UPPER DELAWARE BAY/ AND CONTINUES
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AS WE GO THROUGH MONDAY, THE BEST MIXING
SHOULD SHIFT NEARSHORE AND OVER LAND. THEREFORE, WE DID NOT EXTEND
THE GALE WARNING ATTM. THE SEAS WILL BUILD QUITE A BIT DURING THE
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS, ALTHOUGH JUST HOW
MUCH WIND ACTUALLY MAKES IT TO THE SURFACE WILL INFLUENCE THE SEAS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...SW WIND SHIFTING TO WEST WITH THE CFP. SCA LIKELY.

TUESDAY...SCA EXPECTED DURING COLD AIR ADVECTION ON WESTERLY FLOW.

TUESDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY BELOW SCA CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY...STRONG NORTHEAST SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST SCA WITH A
POSSIBLE GALE. SEAS FORECAST ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS MAY BE 2
TO 4 FEET TOO LOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THANKSGIVING...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY FALL BELOW SCA
CRITERIA BUT ATLANTIC SEAS MAY NOT DROP BELOW 5 FT TIL AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...POSSIBLE SCA COLD AIR ADVECTION WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO THE
REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS BELOW FOR OUR FOUR
PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING UNBROKEN PERIOD OF
RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL SNOWFALL DATA.

BEST CHANCE OF COMING CLOSE TO A "DAILY" RECORD AS OF THIS SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS COLLABORATION APPEARS TO BE KABE.

DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS:

NOVEMBER 26TH:               NOVEMBER 27TH:       PERIOD OF RECORD:

ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955    1.2 INCHES 1978            1874

PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898         6.9 INCHES 1949,1938       1872

ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950         4.5 INCHES 1978            1894

ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925         7.0 INCHES 1938            1922

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 418
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE/NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...DRAG 418
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 418
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
CLIMATE...KLINE







000
FXUS61 KPHI 232119
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
419 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE IN MISSOURI WILL ARRIVE IN THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES MONDAY YANKING A STRONG WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH OUR REGION
EARLY MONDAY. IT THEN SWEEPS A COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST MONDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATE TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM FORMING
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING MOVES EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND BY THANKSGIVING. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA
THURSDAY EVENING AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE CAROLINAS NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A POTENT SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL EVOLVE THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS INVOLVES A
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL AMPLIFY FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE
GULF COAST STATES, WHICH DRIVES A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE, A BUILDING RIDGE NEAR THE
EAST COAST WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH ITS CENTER MAINLY EAST OF
FLORIDA.

THE STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST TONIGHT IS A
RESULT OF A POTENT 250 MB JET CARVING IT OUT. AS THIS OCCURS, THE
HEIGHT FIELDS TIGHTEN QUITE A BIT ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST AND SOUTH
SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS WILL DRIVE AN INCREASINGLY ROBUST WIND
FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE COURSE OF TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS,
SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN COMBINATION WITH STRENGTHENING WAA WILL DRIVE
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS OUR AREA. AS A RESULT, ABOUT A
4-6 HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SURGE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. AS THE THETA-E
ADVECTION REALLY RAMPS UP THIS EVENING, THE LOW-LEVEL DEW POINTS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND THIS WILL LEAD TO A JUMP IN PW VALUES.
THEREFORE, SOME OF THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WHICH
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. WE THEREFORE
CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE THE POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS
EVENING WITH CATEGORICAL POPS EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY FORECAST TO ARRIVE ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES ESPECIALLY LATE, AND THIS COULD PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.

AS THE FLOW INCREASES ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THE INJECTION OF A WARM
AIRMASS WORKS IN ACROSS THE AREA, WE SHOULD START TO MIX BETTER
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 AND IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS ALONG WITH WAA WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR
CWA. AS A RESULT, WE CONTINUED TO INDICATE RISING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. BY DAYBREAK, SOME EAST AND SOUTHERN AREAS MAY
BE INTO THE LOWER 60S. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE BETTER
MOMENTUM TRANSFER DEVELOPING LATE ESPECIALLY THE FARTHER SOUTHEAST
ONE GOES ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER GIVEN THE WAA PATTERN THERE SHOULD
BE A DECENT INVERSION PRESENT DURING THE NIGHT EVEN WITH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING. AS A RESULT, THE DEPTH OF THE MIXED LAYER
SHOULD NOT ALLOW THE TRANSFER OF THE RATHER ROBUST WINDS WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL JET DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THERE IS A CHC SOME FOG DEVELOPS
LATE ESPECIALLY AS THE WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR SURGES IN.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, MOSTLY A NAM/GFS MOS BLEND WAS USED AND
THESE WERE SET TO OCCUR THIS EVENING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A
TEMPERATURE RISE WAS THEN INDICATED THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
RECORD WARMTH CERTAINLY POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA.

A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR WEST, AND THIS
WILL DRIVE A POTENT SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARD
HUDSON BAY. THIS PLACES OUR AREA WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO ITS EAST. THE MAIN LOW-LEVEL JET AND LARGE
SCALE LIFT AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL FORCING IS FORECAST TO
QUICKLY SHIFT TO OUR NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS, A
DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS OUR AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAIN TAPERING TO
SOME SHOWERS AND ENDING FAIRLY QUICKLY IN THE MORNING FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST. THEREFORE, THE POPS DECREASE RATHER QUICKLY DURING THE
MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HANGING ON FOR A
LITTLE WHILE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS AND ALONG THE COAST, HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS. AFTER THAT, THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT DRYING OCCURS ALOFT FIRST ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRY
SLOT, HOWEVER WITH OUR AREA BEING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND STILL
STRONG WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE WE SHOULD MIX OUT MUCH OF THE LOWER
CLOUDS. WHILE A FEW SHOWERS COULD BE AROUND DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON, THE SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SHOW A MID LEVEL CAP
DEVELOPING ALONG WITH THE DRYING. THEREFORE, THIS MAY LIMIT ANY
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FOR AWHILE DESPITE SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT. THIS
BRINGS US TO THE WARMTH AND WINDS.

THE TEMPERATURES AT 925 MB ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND +15C DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AS WE LOSE THE LOWER
CLOUDS AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS, MIXING WILL DEEPEN. THIS WILL
BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. IF WE
CLEAR OUT MORE, THEN TEMPERATURES COULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. FOR NOW, USED A MOS BLEND BUT DID ADJUST UP SOME
ESPECIALLY FOR THE INTERSTATE 95 AREA ON SOUTH AND EAST.

AS FOR THE SURFACE WINDS MONDAY, WHILE THE INTENSE LOW-LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST TO BE SHIFTING TO OUR NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY, THE WIND
FIELD AT 925 MB IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40-50 KNOT RANGE. THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW BETTER MIXING BECOMING ESTABLISHED AND IF WE
WARM THE BOUNDARY EVEN MORE THIS DEPTH WOULD INCREASE SOME. IT STILL
APPEARS THOUGH THAT WE DO NOT MIX UP FULLY TO THE STRONGEST WINDS,
AND THEREFORE WE CARRY GUSTS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WE DID LEAN
CLOSER TO THE GFS WINDS WHICH ARE A LITTLE STRONGER AT THE SURFACE
AND BOOSTED THE GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
**WINTER STORM-EVENT VICINITY I-95 CORRIDOR WESTWARD WEDNESDAY**

500MB: THE STRONG SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES STORM
LIFTS NEWD INTO QUEBEC MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT TROUGH IS ON A MORE
SOUTHERLY ROUTE AND CROSSES THE EAST COAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH MORE COHERENCE IN ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS THAN PRESENTED 24 HOURS
AGO. HEIGHTS RISE TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND BUT A GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES DIFFICULT
TO DISCERN IN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN.

TEMPERATURES: TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER HAVE SO FAR
AVERAGED 4 TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH YESTERDAY THE 10TH
CONSECUTIVE DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A BRIEF HIATUS FROM
THE COLD IS AT HAND BUT EVEN SO...THE MONTH AS A WHOLE PROJECTS TO
AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL. DID A QUICK EXTRAPOLATION OF MAX/MIN
FOR THE REST OF THE MONTH BASED OUR OFFICE FORECAST AND WE ARE
PROJECTING 2.5 TO 3.5 DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY AVG OF 47.6 DEGREES.

CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES TUESDAY SHOULD BE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL (1201AM TUESDAY MORNING HIGHS COULD BE 60-63F PHL EASTWARD),
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY 6
TO 14 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DEPENDING WHEN THE PCPN BEGINS. THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL AND NEXT SUNDAY IN MAY WARM MORE THAN WE HAVE FORECAST.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/23 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN THE 12Z/23 GFS
MOS WAS NOT APPLIED WEDNESDAY...IT LOOKS TOO WARM BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES).
THEREAFTER (THURSDAY ONWARD) THE 1522Z/23 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE
WAS USED STRAIGHT UP. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED AGAINST THE
12Z/23 ECMWF THROUGH THURSDAY TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK
WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES.
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/23
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. THE SREF ALSO HAS
SIGNIFICANT PROBABILITIES FOR 1 AND 4 INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BY 7PM
WEDNESDAY I95 CORRIDOR WESTWARD BUT COULD BE BIASED TOO COLD! THE
12Z/23 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05 ARE USED AFTER 00Z/THURSDAY AS A
CHECK AGAINST OTHER AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

THE DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CHANCE OF A LOW TOP SHOWER OR SPRINKLE.
OTHERWISE CLEARING AND MAYBE A BIT BREEZY (WEST WIND GUSTS 20 MPH
FOR A TIME) AFTER THE EVENING CFP WHEN WE SEE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WIND FORECAST INCREASES AROUND 03-06Z. STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING WHEN TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 60S. GUIDANCE TEMPS: USED THE WARMER OF THE AVBL TEMP
GUIDANCE AND BLENDED WITH THE EVEN WARMER 2M NAM TEMPS AT 00Z AND
03Z/25 (PRIOR TO CFP).

TUESDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY (FIRST CIRRUS FROM GULF
COAST SHORT WAVE MOVING EASTWARD VCNTY TEX/LA AND ALSO RRQ STRONG
250MB JET OF 200 KT /230 MPH/ NEAR L ONTARIO). FOR THE SURFACE...AM
EXPECTING WESTERLY WIND GUSTS 25 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING CLOUDY WITH LIGHT WIND. SEASONABLE TEMPS.
LIGHT RAIN SPREADS UP ONTO THE DELMARVA AND POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY
TO PHL BY 12Z TUESDAY.


WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OUR MODEL OF CHOICE LEANS HEAVILY ON THE
ECMWF WITH GFS WPC AND SREF MIX. A COASTAL STORM DEEPENS A MB PER
HOUR AS IT RACES NEWD EAST OF THE MID ATLC COAST. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT AIDED BY RRQ OF 200KT 250MB JET OVER THE GULF OF ST
LAWRENCE.

ONE QUARTER TO 1.25 INCH AMOUNTS EXPECTED...HEAVIEST PROBABLY IN NJ.

SNOW MAP POSTED ALONG WITH BRIEFING PACKAGE TO GIVE OUR FIRST
EFFORT AT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE ADJUSTMENTS. THINKING THAT THIS FORECAST CAN
EASILY BE IN ERROR 3 INCHES EITHER SIDE OF WHAT IS POSTED ON OUR
WEB SITE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE ON SNOW AMOUNTS REACHING THE POSTED VALUES IS HIGHEST
FROM READING PA THROUGH THE POCONOS INTO FAR NW NJ. CONFIDENCE
LESSENS SOUTHEASTWARD.

NO MATTER...THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF SNOW IMPACTING TRAVEL
SOMETIME WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY JUST WEST OF
I-95. THE 12Z/23 ECMWF IS THE WARMEST MODEL WITH THE GFS COLDER
BUT ALSO PROBABLY TOO FAR EAST. THE EC HAS A DEFINITE ABOVE
FREEZING LAYER BETWEEN 850 AND 700MB. THE GFS NOT.

SNOW/RAIN: I-95 CORRIDOR OR 30 MILES NORTHWEST LOOKS TO BE GENERAL
DEMARCATION BETWEEN MOSTLY SNOW AND MOSTLY RAIN. DEPENDING ON YOUR
MODEL SELECTED AND THERE WILL BE ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED...IT COULD BE
RAIN-SNOW CHANGING TO ALL RAIN THEN ENDING AS SNOW FOR I95; MOSTLY
SNOW FURTHER WEST AND NORTH THROUGH EASTERN PA AND NW NJ.
ELEVATIONS WILL ACCUMULATE BEST WHERE ITS COLDER.

TEMPS FOR THE WEDNESDAY FCST ARE THE 330 AM PHI FCST BLENDED 50 50
WITH THE 00Z-12Z/23 ECMWF 2M TEMPS AND DID NOT USE THE 12Z/23 MEXMOS
TEMPS WHICH LOOKED 3 TO 6 DEGREES TOO WARM. MAX TEMPS APPEAR TO BE
OCCURRING FORENOON BEFORE PCPN WET BULBS COLDER READINGS DURING THE
AFTN.

TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE AT OR JUST ABOVE THE 12Z/23 GFS MEXMOS
VALUES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE WPC TEMPS.

THOSE LOOKING AT THE MODELS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT GUIDANCE DOES NOT
HANDLE SNOW COOLING THE SFC TEMPERATURES AND THE COLUMN WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW NOT TOO FAR WEST OF PHL WITH ONLY THE LOWEST
1000 FEET AIR TEMP STRUCTURE DETERMINING THE SURFACE PTYPE.

THE LARGER ACCUMS FOR THIS EVENT ALONG I-95 MAY BE RESERVED FOR THE
EVENING AS PCPN PROBABLY CHANGES TO ALL SNOW.

SE OF I95...WHICH INCLUDES MOST OF MD E SHORE AND DELAWARE AND
COASTAL NJ...MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED. IT COULD END AS A PERIOD OF
WET SNOW OR FLURRIES... ALL DEPENDENT ON BANDING TAIL (500 MB VORT
MAX TRACK/STRENGTH).

THURSDAY...A SECONDARY TROUGH PASSAGE...SFC COLD FRONT WITH
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE (WINDEX?) MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW
SHOWERS NW OF I95. FOR NOW ONLY GRIDDED IN THE POCONOS.

FRIDAY- SUNDAY...WPC GUIDANCE AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE
CAROLINAS. LOWS TEMPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING MIGHT BE AROUND
8 DEGREES COLDER THAN FORECAST NORTH OF I78 IF THERE IS SNOW
COVER (10 TO 15F).

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR, WITH SOME CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 15,000
FEET. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS, BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY
TOWARD EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR TO START, THEN CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY LOWER
TO MVFR AND IFR /LOCAL LIFR/ AS A WARM FRONT ARRIVES. A PERIOD OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES. THIS WILL ALSO REDUCE THE VISIBILITIES, WITH EVEN SOME FOG
POSSIBLE LATE ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST AND FROM NEAR KABE ON
NORTHWARD. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT AROUND 5 KNOTS WILL INCREASE
TO NEAR 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND COULD BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES. THE
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE FROM NEAR THE KPHL METRO ON SOUTH AND
EAST. THE AMOUNT OF GUSTINESS THAT OCCURS LATE CARRIES LOWER
CONFIDENCE. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE MAINLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF KPHL. A POTENT LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA, AND THEREFORE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS INCLUDED FOR THE
OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...MVFR/IFR /LOCAL LIFR/ CEILINGS FOR A TIME IN THE MORNING,
THEN CEILINGS SHOULD RISE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON AS A MUCH WARMER
AIRMASS IS IN PLACE. IT IS POSSIBLE THOUGH THAT SOME LOW CLOUDS
LINGER LONGER ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST AND NORTH OF KTTN AND
KABE. RAIN DEPARTS EARLY, HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WILL
BE POSSIBLE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 KNOTS. THE CORE OF LOW-LEVEL JET SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE
DURING THE DAY, THEREFORE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE
DURING THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. WESTERLY WINDS MAY BRIEFLY
GUST 20-25 KT MONDAY NIGHT SUBSEQUENT TO A CFP THAT COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A SPRINKLE. WEST WINDS SHOULD GUST 25 KT ON TUESDAY
THEN DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THEY TURN NORTH
TO NORTHWEST. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THIS SCENARIO.

WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL STORM WILL BRING MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS IN
RAIN COAST (KACY/KMIV), RAIN SNOW KTTN KPNE KTPHL AND KILG AND
MOSTLY SNOW KABE AND KRDG. IN ADDITION, EXPECT PERSISTENT NORTHERLY
OR NORTHEASTERLY WINDS FOR GENERALLY THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY
WITH GUSTS 12-25 KT FROM WEST TO EAST. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END AS
SNOW MOST TAF SITES AT NIGHT EXCEPT POSSIBLY NOT AT KMIV/KACY.

SIGNIFICANT PAVEMENT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE KRDG/KABE ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THANKSGIVING...CONDITIONS SLOWLY RETURN TO VFR AND WINDS SHIFT TO
WESTERLY OR NORTHWEST. THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CONDS IN SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY MAINLY JUST N OF KRDG AND KABE. WINDS MAY
GUST TO 25 KT.

FRIDAY...PROBABLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR WEST LATER TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT ALONG
WITH AN INCREASINGLY ROBUST WIND FIELD. THE 925 MB WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 50-70 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT, THEN DECREASE
TO ABOUT 40-50 KNOTS ON MONDAY. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
BETTER MIXING OCCURS FOR AWHILE TONIGHT BEFORE A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS
ARRIVES LATE AND DURING MONDAY. ON MONDAY, THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT A VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION IS PRESENT WHICH
WOULD KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE. THEREFORE, A GALE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT STARTING AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR ALL OUR
ZONES /LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR UPPER DELAWARE BAY/ AND CONTINUES
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AS WE GO THROUGH MONDAY, THE BEST MIXING
SHOULD SHIFT NEARSHORE AND OVER LAND. THEREFORE, WE DID NOT EXTEND
THE GALE WARNING ATTM. THE SEAS WILL BUILD QUITE A BIT DURING THE
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS, ALTHOUGH JUST HOW
MUCH WIND ACTUALLY MAKES IT TO THE SURFACE WILL INFLUENCE THE SEAS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...SW WIND SHIFTING TO WEST WITH THE CFP. SCA LIKELY.

TUESDAY...SCA EXPECTED DURING COLD AIR ADVECTION ON WESTERLY FLOW.

TUESDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY BELOW SCA CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY...STRONG NORTHEAST SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST SCA WITH A
POSSIBLE GALE. SEAS FORECAST ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS MAY BE 2
TO 4 FEET TOO LOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THANKSGIVING...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY FALL BELOW SCA
CRITERIA BUT ATLANTIC SEAS MAY NOT DROP BELOW 5 FT TIL AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...POSSIBLE SCA COLD AIR ADVECTION WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO THE
REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS BELOW FOR OUR FOUR
PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING UNBROKEN PERIOD OF
RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL SNOWFALL DATA.

BEST CHANCE OF COMING CLOSE TO A "DAILY" RECORD AS OF THIS SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS COLLABORATION APPEARS TO BE KABE.

DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS:

NOVEMBER 26TH:               NOVEMBER 27TH:       PERIOD OF RECORD:

ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955    1.2 INCHES 1978            1874

PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898         6.9 INCHES 1949,1938       1872

ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950         4.5 INCHES 1978            1894

ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925         7.0 INCHES 1938            1922

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 418
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE/NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...DRAG 418
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 418
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
CLIMATE...KLINE






000
FXUS61 KPHI 232038
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
338 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE IN MISSOURI WILL ARRIVE IN THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES MONDAY YANKING A STRONG WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH OUR REGION
EARLY MONDAY. IT THEN SWEEPS A COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST MONDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATE TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM FORMING
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING MOVES EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
BY THANKSGIVING. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA THURSDAY
EVENING AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE CAROLINAS NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A POTENT SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL EVOLVE THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS INVOLVES A
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL AMPLIFY FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE
GULF COAST STATES, WHICH DRIVES A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE, A BUILDING RIDGE NEAR THE
EAST COAST WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH ITS CENTER MAINLY EAST OF
FLORIDA.

THE STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST TONIGHT IS A
RESULT OF A POTENT 250 MB JET CARVING IT OUT. AS THIS OCCURS, THE
HEIGHT FIELDS TIGHTEN QUITE A BIT ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST AND SOUTH
SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS WILL DRIVE AN INCREASINGLY ROBUST WIND
FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE COURSE OF TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS,
SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN COMBINATION WITH STRENGTHENING WAA WILL DRIVE
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS OUR AREA. AS A RESULT, ABOUT A
4-6 HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SURGE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. AS THE THETA-E
ADVECTION REALLY RAMPS UP THIS EVENING, THE LOW-LEVEL DEW POINTS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND THIS WILL LEAD TO A JUMP IN PW VALUES.
THEREFORE, SOME OF THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WHICH
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. WE THEREFORE
CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE THE POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS
EVENING WITH CATEGORICAL POPS EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY FORECAST TO ARRIVE ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES ESPECIALLY LATE, AND THIS COULD PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.

AS THE FLOW INCREASES ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THE INJECTION OF A WARM
AIRMASS WORKS IN ACROSS THE AREA, WE SHOULD START TO MIX BETTER
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 AND IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS ALONG WITH WAA WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR
CWA. AS A RESULT, WE CONTINUED TO INDICATE RISING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. BY DAYBREAK, SOME EAST AND SOUTHERN AREAS MAY
BE INTO THE LOWER 60S. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE BETTER
MOMENTUM TRANSFER DEVELOPING LATE ESPECIALLY THE FARTHER SOUTHEAST
ONE GOES ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER GIVEN THE WAA PATTERN THERE SHOULD
BE A DECENT INVERSION PRESENT DURING THE NIGHT EVEN WITH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING. AS A RESULT, THE DEPTH OF THE MIXED LAYER
SHOULD NOT ALLOW THE TRANSFER OF THE RATHER ROBUST WINDS WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL JET DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THERE IS A CHC SOME FOG DEVELOPS
LATE ESPECIALLY AS THE WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR SURGES IN.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, MOSTLY A NAM/GFS MOS BLEND WAS USED AND
THESE WERE SET TO OCCUR THIS EVENING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A
TEMPERATURE RISE WAS THEN INDICATED THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
RECORD WARMTH CERTAINLY POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA.

A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR WEST, AND THIS
WILL DRIVE A POTENT SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARD
HUDSON BAY. THIS PLACES OUR AREA WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO ITS EAST. THE MAIN LOW-LEVEL JET AND LARGE
SCALE LIFT AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL FORCING IS FORECAST TO
QUICKLY SHIFT TO OUR NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS, A
DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS OUR AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAIN TAPERING TO
SOME SHOWERS AND ENDING FAIRLY QUICKLY IN THE MORNING FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST. THEREFORE, THE POPS DECREASE RATHER QUICKLY DURING THE
MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HANGING ON FOR A
LITTLE WHILE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS AND ALONG THE COAST, HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS. AFTER THAT, THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT DRYING OCCURS ALOFT FIRST ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRY
SLOT, HOWEVER WITH OUR AREA BEING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND STILL
STRONG WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE WE SHOULD MIX OUT MUCH OF THE LOWER
CLOUDS. WHILE A FEW SHOWERS COULD BE AROUND DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON, THE SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SHOW A MID LEVEL CAP
DEVELOPING ALONG WITH THE DRYING. THEREFORE, THIS MAY LIMIT ANY
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FOR AWHILE DESPITE SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT. THIS
BRINGS US TO THE WARMTH AND WINDS.

THE TEMPERATURES AT 925 MB ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND +15C DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AS WE LOSE THE LOWER
CLOUDS AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS, MIXING WILL DEEPEN. THIS WILL
BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. IF WE
CLEAR OUT MORE, THEN TEMPERATURES COULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. FOR NOW, USED A MOS BLEND BUT DID ADJUST UP SOME
ESPECIALLY FOR THE INTERSTATE 95 AREA ON SOUTH AND EAST.

AS FOR THE SURFACE WINDS MONDAY, WHILE THE INTENSE LOW-LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST TO BE SHIFTING TO OUR NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY, THE WIND
FIELD AT 925 MB IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40-50 KNOT RANGE. THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW BETTER MIXING BECOMING ESTABLISHED AND IF WE
WARM THE BOUNDARY EVEN MORE THIS DEPTH WOULD INCREASE SOME. IT STILL
APPEARS THOUGH THAT WE DO NOT MIX UP FULLY TO THE STRONGEST WINDS,
AND THEREFORE WE CARRY GUSTS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WE DID LEAN
CLOSER TO THE GFS WINDS WHICH ARE A LITTLE STRONGER AT THE SURFACE
AND BOOSTED THE GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
**RECORD WARMTH MONDAY IS FOLLOWED BY A WINTER STORM-EVENT VICINITY
  I-95 CORRIDOR WESTWARD WEDNESDAY**

500MB: THE STRONG SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES STORM
LIFTS NEWD INTO QUEBEC MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT TROUGH IS ON A MORE
SOUTHERLY ROUTE AND CROSSES THE EAST COAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH MORE COHERENCE IN ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS THAN PRESENTED 24 HOURS
AGO. HEIGHTS RISE TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND BUT A GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES DIFFICULT
TO DISCERN IN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN.

TEMPERATURES: TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER HAVE SO FAR
AVERAGED 4 TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH YESTERDAY THE 10TH
CONSECUTIVE DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A BRIEF HIATUS FROM
THE COLD IS AT HAND BUT EVEN SO...THE MONTH AS A WHOLE PROJECTS TO
AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL. DID A QUICK EXTRAPOLATION OF MAX/MIN
FOR THE REST OF THE MONTH BASED OUR OFFICE FORECAST AND WE ARE
PROJECTING 2.5 TO 3.5 DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY AVG OF 47.6 DEGREES.

CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES TUESDAY SHOULD BE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL (1201AM TUESDAY MORNING HIGHS COULD BE 60-63F PHL EASTWARD),
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY 6
TO 14 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DEPENDING WHEN THE PCPN BEGINS. THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL AND NEXT SUNDAY IN MAY WARM MORE THAN WE HAVE FORECAST.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/23 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN THE 12Z/23 GFS
MOS WAS NOT APPLIED WEDNESDAY...IT LOOKS TOO WARM BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES).
THEREAFTER (THURSDAY ONWARD) THE 1522Z/23 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE
WAS USED STRAIGHT UP. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED AGAINST THE
12Z/23 ECMWF THROUGH THURSDAY TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK
WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES.
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/23
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. THE SREF ALSO HAS
SIGNIFICANT PROBABILITIES FOR 1 AND 4 INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BY 7PM
WEDNESDAY I95 CORRIDOR WESTWARD BUT COULD BE BIASED TOO COLD! THE
12Z/23 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05 ARE USED AFTER 00Z/THURSDAY AS A
CHECK AGAINST OTHER AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

THE DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CHANCE OF A LOW TOP SHOWER OR SPRINKLE.
OTHERWISE CLEARING AND MAYBE A BIT BREEZY (WEST WIND GUSTS 20 MPH
FOR A TIME) AFTER THE EVENING CFP WHEN WE SEE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WIND FORECAST INCREASES AROUND 03-06Z. STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING WHEN TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 60S. GUIDANCE TEMPS: USED THE WARMER OF THE AVBL TEMP
GUIDANCE AND BLENDED WITH THE EVEN WARMER 2M NAM TEMPS AT 00Z AND
03Z/25 (PRIOR TO CFP).

TUESDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY (FIRST CIRRUS FROM GULF
COAST SHORT WAVE MOVING EASTWARD VCNTY TEX/LA AND ALSO RRQ STRONG
250MB JET OF 200 KT NEAR L ONTARIO). WESTERLY WIND GUSTS 25 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING CLOUDY WITH LIGHT WIND. SEASONABLE TEMPS.
LIGHT RAIN SPREADS UP ONTO THE DELMARVA AND POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY
TO PHL BY 12Z TUESDAY.


WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OUR MODEL OF CHOICE LEANS HEAVILY ON THE
ECMWF WITH GFS WPC AND SREF MIX. A COASTAL STORM DEEPENING AT A MB
PER HOUR AS IT RACES NEWD EAST OF THE MID ATLC COAST. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT AIDED BY RRQ OF 200KT 250MB JET OVER THE GULF OF ST
LAWRENCE.

ONE QUARTER TO 1.25 INCH AMOUNTS EXPECTED...HEAVIEST PROBABLY IN NJ.

SNOW MAP POSTED ALONG WITH BRIEFING PACKAGE TO GIVE OUR FIRST
EFFORT AT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE ADJUSTMENTS. THINKING THAT THIS FORECAST CAN
EASILY BE IN ERROR 3 INCHES EITHER SIDE OF WHAT YOU SEE.

CONFIDENCE ON SNOW AMOUNTS REACHING THE POSTED VALUES IS HIGHEST
FROM READING PA THROUGH THE POCONOS INTO FAR NW NJ. CONFIDENCE
LESSENS SOUTHEASTWARD.

NO MATTER...THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF SNOW IMPACTING TRAVEL
SOMETIME WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY JUST WEST OF
I-95. THE 12Z/23 ECMWF IS THE WARMEST MODEL WITH THE GFS COLDER
BUT ALSO PROBABLY TOO FAR EAST. THE EC HAS A DEFINITE ABOVE
FREEZING LAYER BETWEEN 850 AND 700MB. THE GFS NOT.

SNOW/RAIN: I-95 CORRIDOR OR 30 MILES NORTHWEST LOOKS TO BE GENERAL
DEMARCATION BETWEEN MOSTLY SNOW AND MOSTLY RAIN. DEPENDING ON YOUR
MODEL SELECTED AND THERE WILL BE ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED...IT COULD BE
RAIN-SNOW CHANGING TO ALL RAIN THEN ENDING AS SNOW FOR I95; MOSTLY
SNOW FURTHER WEST AND NORTH THROUGH EASTERN PA AND NW NJ.
ELEVATIONS WILL ACCUMULATE BEST WHERE ITS COLDER.

TEMPS FOR THE WEDNESDAY FCST ARE THE 330 AM PHI FCST BLENDED 50 50
WITH THE 00Z-12Z/23 ECMWF 2M TEMPS AND DID NOT USE THE 12Z/23 MEXMOS
TEMPS WHICH LOOKED 3 TO 6 DEGREES TOO WARM. MAX TEMPS APPEAR TO BE
OCCURRING FORENOON BEFORE PCPN WET BULBS COLDER READINGS DURING THE
AFTN.

TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE AT OR JUST ABOVE THE 12Z/23 GFS MEXMOS
VALUES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE WPC TEMPS.

THOSE LOOKING AT THE MODELS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT GUIDANCE DOES NOT
HANDLE SNOW COOLING THE SFC TEMPERATURES AND THE COLUMN WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW NOT TOO FAR WEST OF PHL WITH ONLY THE LOWEST
1000 FEET AIR TEMP STRUCTURE DETERMINING THE SURFACE PTYPE.

THE LARGER ACCUMS FOR THIS EVENT ALONG I-95 MAY BE RESERVED FOR THE
EVENING AS PCPN PROBABLY CHANGES TO ALL SNOW.

SE OF I95...WHICH INCLUDES MOST OF MD E SHORE AND DELAWARE...MAINLY
RAIN IS EXPECTED IT COULD END AS A PERIOD OF WET SNOW OR FLURRIES...
ALL DEPENDENT ON BANDING TAIL (500 MB VORT MAX TRACK/STRENGTH).

THURSDAY...A SECONDARY TROUGH PASSAGE...SFC COLD FRONT WITH
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE (WINDEX?) MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW
SHOWERS NW OF I95. FOR NOW ONLY GRIDDED IN THE POCONOS.

FRIDAY- SUNDAY...WPC GUIDANCE AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE
CAROLINAS. LOWS TEMPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING MIGHT BE AROUND
8 DEGREES COLDER THAN FORECAST NORTH OF I78 IF THERE IS SNOW
COVER (10 TO 15F).


&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR, WITH SOME CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 15,000
FEET. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS, BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY
TOWARD EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR TO START, THEN CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY LOWER
TO MVFR AND IFR /LOCAL LIFR/ AS A WARM FRONT ARRIVES. A PERIOD OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES. THIS WILL ALSO REDUCE THE VISIBILITIES, WITH EVEN SOME FOG
POSSIBLE LATE ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST AND FROM NEAR KABE ON
NORTHWARD. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT AROUND 5 KNOTS WILL INCREASE
TO NEAR 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND COULD BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES. THE
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE FROM NEAR THE KPHL METRO ON SOUTH AND
EAST. THE AMOUNT OF GUSTINESS THAT OCCURS LATE CARRIES LOWER
CONFIDENCE. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE MAINLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF KPHL. A POTENT LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA, AND THEREFORE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS INCLUDED FOR THE
OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...MVFR/IFR /LOCAL LIFR/ CEILINGS FOR A TIME IN THE MORNING,
THEN CEILINGS SHOULD RISE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON AS A MUCH WARMER
AIRMASS IS IN PLACE. IT IS POSSIBLE THOUGH THAT SOME LOW CLOUDS
LINGER LONGER ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST AND NORTH OF KTTN AND
KABE. RAIN DEPARTS EARLY, HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WILL
BE POSSIBLE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 KNOTS. THE CORE OF LOW-LEVEL JET SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE
DURING THE DAY, THEREFORE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE
DURING THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. WESTERLY WINDS MAY BRIEFLY
GUST 20-25 KT MONDAY NIGHT SUBSEQUENT TO A CFP THAT COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A SPRINKLE. WEST WINDS SHOULD GUST 25 KT ON TUESDAY
THEN DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THEY TURN NORTH
TO NORTHWEST. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THIS SCENARIO.

WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL STORM WILL BRING MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS IN
RAIN COAST (KACY/KMIV), RAIN SNOW KTTN KPNE KTPHL AND KILG AND
MOSTLY SNOW KABE AND KRDG. IN ADDITION, EXPECT PERSISTENT NORTHERLY
OR NORTHEASTERLY WINDS FOR GENERALLY THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY
WITH GUSTS 12-25 KT FROM WEST TO EAST. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END AS
SNOW MOST TAF SITES AT NIGHT EXCEPT POSSIBLY NOT AT KMIV/KACY.

SIGNIFICANT PAVEMENT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE KRDG/KABE ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THANKSGIVING...CONDITIONS SLOWLY RETURN TO VFR AND WINDS SHIFT TO
WESTERLY OR NORTHWEST. THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CONDS IN SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY MAINLY JUST N OF KRDG AND KABE. WINDS MAY
GUST TO 25 KT.

FRIDAY...PROBABLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR WEST LATER TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT ALONG
WITH AN INCREASINGLY ROBUST WIND FIELD. THE 925 MB WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 50-70 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT, THEN DECREASE
TO ABOUT 40-50 KNOTS ON MONDAY. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
BETTER MIXING OCCURS FOR AWHILE TONIGHT BEFORE A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS
ARRIVES LATE AND DURING MONDAY. ON MONDAY, THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT A VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION IS PRESENT WHICH
WOULD KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE. THEREFORE, A GALE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT STARTING AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR ALL OUR
ZONES /LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR UPPER DELAWARE BAY/ AND CONTINUES
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AS WE GO THROUGH MONDAY, THE BEST MIXING
SHOULD SHIFT NEARSHORE AND OVER LAND. THEREFORE, WE DID NOT EXTEND
THE GALE WARNING ATTM. THE SEAS WILL BUILD QUITE A BIT DURING THE
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS, ALTHOUGH JUST HOW
MUCH WIND ACTUALLY MAKES IT TO THE SURFACE WILL INFLUENCE THE SEAS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...SW WIND SHIFTING TO WEST WITH THE CFP. SCA LIKELY.

TUESDAY...SCA EXPECTED DURING COLD AIR ADVECTION ON WESTERLY FLOW.

TUESDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY BELOW SCA CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY...STRONG NORTHEAST SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST SCA WITH A
POSSIBLE GALE. SEAS FORECAST ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS MAY BE 2
TO 4 FEET TOO LOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THANKSGIVING...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY FALL BELOW SCA
CRITERIA BUT ATLANTIC SEAS MAY NOT DROP BELOW 5 FT TIL AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...POSSIBLE SCA COLD AIR ADVECTION WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO THE
REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS BELOW FOR OUR FOUR
PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING UNBROKEN PERIOD OF
RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL SNOWFALL DATA.

BEST CHANCE OF COMING CLOSE TO A "DAILY" RECORD AS OF THIS SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS COLLABORATION APPEARS TO BE KABE.

DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS:

NOVEMBER 26TH:               NOVEMBER 27TH:       PERIOD OF RECORD:

ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955    1.2 INCHES 1978            1874

PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898         6.9 INCHES 1949,1938       1872

ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950         4.5 INCHES 1978            1894

ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925         7.0 INCHES 1938            1922

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 338
NEAR TERM...GORSE 338
SHORT TERM...GORSE 338
LONG TERM...DRAG 338
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 338
MARINE...GORSE 338
CLIMATE...KLINE 338








000
FXUS61 KPHI 232038
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
338 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE IN MISSOURI WILL ARRIVE IN THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES MONDAY YANKING A STRONG WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH OUR REGION
EARLY MONDAY. IT THEN SWEEPS A COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST MONDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATE TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM FORMING
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING MOVES EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
BY THANKSGIVING. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA THURSDAY
EVENING AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE CAROLINAS NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A POTENT SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL EVOLVE THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS INVOLVES A
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL AMPLIFY FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE
GULF COAST STATES, WHICH DRIVES A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE, A BUILDING RIDGE NEAR THE
EAST COAST WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH ITS CENTER MAINLY EAST OF
FLORIDA.

THE STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST TONIGHT IS A
RESULT OF A POTENT 250 MB JET CARVING IT OUT. AS THIS OCCURS, THE
HEIGHT FIELDS TIGHTEN QUITE A BIT ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST AND SOUTH
SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS WILL DRIVE AN INCREASINGLY ROBUST WIND
FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE COURSE OF TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS,
SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN COMBINATION WITH STRENGTHENING WAA WILL DRIVE
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS OUR AREA. AS A RESULT, ABOUT A
4-6 HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SURGE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. AS THE THETA-E
ADVECTION REALLY RAMPS UP THIS EVENING, THE LOW-LEVEL DEW POINTS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND THIS WILL LEAD TO A JUMP IN PW VALUES.
THEREFORE, SOME OF THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WHICH
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. WE THEREFORE
CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE THE POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS
EVENING WITH CATEGORICAL POPS EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY FORECAST TO ARRIVE ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES ESPECIALLY LATE, AND THIS COULD PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.

AS THE FLOW INCREASES ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THE INJECTION OF A WARM
AIRMASS WORKS IN ACROSS THE AREA, WE SHOULD START TO MIX BETTER
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 AND IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS ALONG WITH WAA WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR
CWA. AS A RESULT, WE CONTINUED TO INDICATE RISING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. BY DAYBREAK, SOME EAST AND SOUTHERN AREAS MAY
BE INTO THE LOWER 60S. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE BETTER
MOMENTUM TRANSFER DEVELOPING LATE ESPECIALLY THE FARTHER SOUTHEAST
ONE GOES ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER GIVEN THE WAA PATTERN THERE SHOULD
BE A DECENT INVERSION PRESENT DURING THE NIGHT EVEN WITH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING. AS A RESULT, THE DEPTH OF THE MIXED LAYER
SHOULD NOT ALLOW THE TRANSFER OF THE RATHER ROBUST WINDS WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL JET DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THERE IS A CHC SOME FOG DEVELOPS
LATE ESPECIALLY AS THE WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR SURGES IN.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, MOSTLY A NAM/GFS MOS BLEND WAS USED AND
THESE WERE SET TO OCCUR THIS EVENING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A
TEMPERATURE RISE WAS THEN INDICATED THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
RECORD WARMTH CERTAINLY POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA.

A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR WEST, AND THIS
WILL DRIVE A POTENT SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARD
HUDSON BAY. THIS PLACES OUR AREA WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO ITS EAST. THE MAIN LOW-LEVEL JET AND LARGE
SCALE LIFT AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL FORCING IS FORECAST TO
QUICKLY SHIFT TO OUR NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS, A
DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS OUR AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAIN TAPERING TO
SOME SHOWERS AND ENDING FAIRLY QUICKLY IN THE MORNING FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST. THEREFORE, THE POPS DECREASE RATHER QUICKLY DURING THE
MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HANGING ON FOR A
LITTLE WHILE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS AND ALONG THE COAST, HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS. AFTER THAT, THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT DRYING OCCURS ALOFT FIRST ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRY
SLOT, HOWEVER WITH OUR AREA BEING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND STILL
STRONG WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE WE SHOULD MIX OUT MUCH OF THE LOWER
CLOUDS. WHILE A FEW SHOWERS COULD BE AROUND DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON, THE SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SHOW A MID LEVEL CAP
DEVELOPING ALONG WITH THE DRYING. THEREFORE, THIS MAY LIMIT ANY
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FOR AWHILE DESPITE SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT. THIS
BRINGS US TO THE WARMTH AND WINDS.

THE TEMPERATURES AT 925 MB ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND +15C DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AS WE LOSE THE LOWER
CLOUDS AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS, MIXING WILL DEEPEN. THIS WILL
BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. IF WE
CLEAR OUT MORE, THEN TEMPERATURES COULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. FOR NOW, USED A MOS BLEND BUT DID ADJUST UP SOME
ESPECIALLY FOR THE INTERSTATE 95 AREA ON SOUTH AND EAST.

AS FOR THE SURFACE WINDS MONDAY, WHILE THE INTENSE LOW-LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST TO BE SHIFTING TO OUR NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY, THE WIND
FIELD AT 925 MB IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40-50 KNOT RANGE. THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW BETTER MIXING BECOMING ESTABLISHED AND IF WE
WARM THE BOUNDARY EVEN MORE THIS DEPTH WOULD INCREASE SOME. IT STILL
APPEARS THOUGH THAT WE DO NOT MIX UP FULLY TO THE STRONGEST WINDS,
AND THEREFORE WE CARRY GUSTS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WE DID LEAN
CLOSER TO THE GFS WINDS WHICH ARE A LITTLE STRONGER AT THE SURFACE
AND BOOSTED THE GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
**RECORD WARMTH MONDAY IS FOLLOWED BY A WINTER STORM-EVENT VICINITY
  I-95 CORRIDOR WESTWARD WEDNESDAY**

500MB: THE STRONG SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES STORM
LIFTS NEWD INTO QUEBEC MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT TROUGH IS ON A MORE
SOUTHERLY ROUTE AND CROSSES THE EAST COAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH MORE COHERENCE IN ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS THAN PRESENTED 24 HOURS
AGO. HEIGHTS RISE TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND BUT A GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES DIFFICULT
TO DISCERN IN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN.

TEMPERATURES: TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER HAVE SO FAR
AVERAGED 4 TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH YESTERDAY THE 10TH
CONSECUTIVE DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A BRIEF HIATUS FROM
THE COLD IS AT HAND BUT EVEN SO...THE MONTH AS A WHOLE PROJECTS TO
AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL. DID A QUICK EXTRAPOLATION OF MAX/MIN
FOR THE REST OF THE MONTH BASED OUR OFFICE FORECAST AND WE ARE
PROJECTING 2.5 TO 3.5 DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY AVG OF 47.6 DEGREES.

CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES TUESDAY SHOULD BE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL (1201AM TUESDAY MORNING HIGHS COULD BE 60-63F PHL EASTWARD),
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY 6
TO 14 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DEPENDING WHEN THE PCPN BEGINS. THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL AND NEXT SUNDAY IN MAY WARM MORE THAN WE HAVE FORECAST.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/23 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN THE 12Z/23 GFS
MOS WAS NOT APPLIED WEDNESDAY...IT LOOKS TOO WARM BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES).
THEREAFTER (THURSDAY ONWARD) THE 1522Z/23 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE
WAS USED STRAIGHT UP. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED AGAINST THE
12Z/23 ECMWF THROUGH THURSDAY TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK
WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES.
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/23
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. THE SREF ALSO HAS
SIGNIFICANT PROBABILITIES FOR 1 AND 4 INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BY 7PM
WEDNESDAY I95 CORRIDOR WESTWARD BUT COULD BE BIASED TOO COLD! THE
12Z/23 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05 ARE USED AFTER 00Z/THURSDAY AS A
CHECK AGAINST OTHER AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

THE DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CHANCE OF A LOW TOP SHOWER OR SPRINKLE.
OTHERWISE CLEARING AND MAYBE A BIT BREEZY (WEST WIND GUSTS 20 MPH
FOR A TIME) AFTER THE EVENING CFP WHEN WE SEE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WIND FORECAST INCREASES AROUND 03-06Z. STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING WHEN TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 60S. GUIDANCE TEMPS: USED THE WARMER OF THE AVBL TEMP
GUIDANCE AND BLENDED WITH THE EVEN WARMER 2M NAM TEMPS AT 00Z AND
03Z/25 (PRIOR TO CFP).

TUESDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY (FIRST CIRRUS FROM GULF
COAST SHORT WAVE MOVING EASTWARD VCNTY TEX/LA AND ALSO RRQ STRONG
250MB JET OF 200 KT NEAR L ONTARIO). WESTERLY WIND GUSTS 25 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING CLOUDY WITH LIGHT WIND. SEASONABLE TEMPS.
LIGHT RAIN SPREADS UP ONTO THE DELMARVA AND POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY
TO PHL BY 12Z TUESDAY.


WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OUR MODEL OF CHOICE LEANS HEAVILY ON THE
ECMWF WITH GFS WPC AND SREF MIX. A COASTAL STORM DEEPENING AT A MB
PER HOUR AS IT RACES NEWD EAST OF THE MID ATLC COAST. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT AIDED BY RRQ OF 200KT 250MB JET OVER THE GULF OF ST
LAWRENCE.

ONE QUARTER TO 1.25 INCH AMOUNTS EXPECTED...HEAVIEST PROBABLY IN NJ.

SNOW MAP POSTED ALONG WITH BRIEFING PACKAGE TO GIVE OUR FIRST
EFFORT AT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE ADJUSTMENTS. THINKING THAT THIS FORECAST CAN
EASILY BE IN ERROR 3 INCHES EITHER SIDE OF WHAT YOU SEE.

CONFIDENCE ON SNOW AMOUNTS REACHING THE POSTED VALUES IS HIGHEST
FROM READING PA THROUGH THE POCONOS INTO FAR NW NJ. CONFIDENCE
LESSENS SOUTHEASTWARD.

NO MATTER...THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF SNOW IMPACTING TRAVEL
SOMETIME WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY JUST WEST OF
I-95. THE 12Z/23 ECMWF IS THE WARMEST MODEL WITH THE GFS COLDER
BUT ALSO PROBABLY TOO FAR EAST. THE EC HAS A DEFINITE ABOVE
FREEZING LAYER BETWEEN 850 AND 700MB. THE GFS NOT.

SNOW/RAIN: I-95 CORRIDOR OR 30 MILES NORTHWEST LOOKS TO BE GENERAL
DEMARCATION BETWEEN MOSTLY SNOW AND MOSTLY RAIN. DEPENDING ON YOUR
MODEL SELECTED AND THERE WILL BE ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED...IT COULD BE
RAIN-SNOW CHANGING TO ALL RAIN THEN ENDING AS SNOW FOR I95; MOSTLY
SNOW FURTHER WEST AND NORTH THROUGH EASTERN PA AND NW NJ.
ELEVATIONS WILL ACCUMULATE BEST WHERE ITS COLDER.

TEMPS FOR THE WEDNESDAY FCST ARE THE 330 AM PHI FCST BLENDED 50 50
WITH THE 00Z-12Z/23 ECMWF 2M TEMPS AND DID NOT USE THE 12Z/23 MEXMOS
TEMPS WHICH LOOKED 3 TO 6 DEGREES TOO WARM. MAX TEMPS APPEAR TO BE
OCCURRING FORENOON BEFORE PCPN WET BULBS COLDER READINGS DURING THE
AFTN.

TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE AT OR JUST ABOVE THE 12Z/23 GFS MEXMOS
VALUES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE WPC TEMPS.

THOSE LOOKING AT THE MODELS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT GUIDANCE DOES NOT
HANDLE SNOW COOLING THE SFC TEMPERATURES AND THE COLUMN WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW NOT TOO FAR WEST OF PHL WITH ONLY THE LOWEST
1000 FEET AIR TEMP STRUCTURE DETERMINING THE SURFACE PTYPE.

THE LARGER ACCUMS FOR THIS EVENT ALONG I-95 MAY BE RESERVED FOR THE
EVENING AS PCPN PROBABLY CHANGES TO ALL SNOW.

SE OF I95...WHICH INCLUDES MOST OF MD E SHORE AND DELAWARE...MAINLY
RAIN IS EXPECTED IT COULD END AS A PERIOD OF WET SNOW OR FLURRIES...
ALL DEPENDENT ON BANDING TAIL (500 MB VORT MAX TRACK/STRENGTH).

THURSDAY...A SECONDARY TROUGH PASSAGE...SFC COLD FRONT WITH
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE (WINDEX?) MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW
SHOWERS NW OF I95. FOR NOW ONLY GRIDDED IN THE POCONOS.

FRIDAY- SUNDAY...WPC GUIDANCE AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE
CAROLINAS. LOWS TEMPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING MIGHT BE AROUND
8 DEGREES COLDER THAN FORECAST NORTH OF I78 IF THERE IS SNOW
COVER (10 TO 15F).


&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR, WITH SOME CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 15,000
FEET. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS, BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY
TOWARD EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR TO START, THEN CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY LOWER
TO MVFR AND IFR /LOCAL LIFR/ AS A WARM FRONT ARRIVES. A PERIOD OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES. THIS WILL ALSO REDUCE THE VISIBILITIES, WITH EVEN SOME FOG
POSSIBLE LATE ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST AND FROM NEAR KABE ON
NORTHWARD. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT AROUND 5 KNOTS WILL INCREASE
TO NEAR 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND COULD BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES. THE
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE FROM NEAR THE KPHL METRO ON SOUTH AND
EAST. THE AMOUNT OF GUSTINESS THAT OCCURS LATE CARRIES LOWER
CONFIDENCE. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE MAINLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF KPHL. A POTENT LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA, AND THEREFORE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS INCLUDED FOR THE
OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...MVFR/IFR /LOCAL LIFR/ CEILINGS FOR A TIME IN THE MORNING,
THEN CEILINGS SHOULD RISE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON AS A MUCH WARMER
AIRMASS IS IN PLACE. IT IS POSSIBLE THOUGH THAT SOME LOW CLOUDS
LINGER LONGER ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST AND NORTH OF KTTN AND
KABE. RAIN DEPARTS EARLY, HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WILL
BE POSSIBLE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 KNOTS. THE CORE OF LOW-LEVEL JET SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE
DURING THE DAY, THEREFORE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE
DURING THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. WESTERLY WINDS MAY BRIEFLY
GUST 20-25 KT MONDAY NIGHT SUBSEQUENT TO A CFP THAT COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A SPRINKLE. WEST WINDS SHOULD GUST 25 KT ON TUESDAY
THEN DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THEY TURN NORTH
TO NORTHWEST. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THIS SCENARIO.

WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL STORM WILL BRING MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS IN
RAIN COAST (KACY/KMIV), RAIN SNOW KTTN KPNE KTPHL AND KILG AND
MOSTLY SNOW KABE AND KRDG. IN ADDITION, EXPECT PERSISTENT NORTHERLY
OR NORTHEASTERLY WINDS FOR GENERALLY THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY
WITH GUSTS 12-25 KT FROM WEST TO EAST. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END AS
SNOW MOST TAF SITES AT NIGHT EXCEPT POSSIBLY NOT AT KMIV/KACY.

SIGNIFICANT PAVEMENT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE KRDG/KABE ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THANKSGIVING...CONDITIONS SLOWLY RETURN TO VFR AND WINDS SHIFT TO
WESTERLY OR NORTHWEST. THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CONDS IN SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY MAINLY JUST N OF KRDG AND KABE. WINDS MAY
GUST TO 25 KT.

FRIDAY...PROBABLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR WEST LATER TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT ALONG
WITH AN INCREASINGLY ROBUST WIND FIELD. THE 925 MB WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 50-70 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT, THEN DECREASE
TO ABOUT 40-50 KNOTS ON MONDAY. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
BETTER MIXING OCCURS FOR AWHILE TONIGHT BEFORE A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS
ARRIVES LATE AND DURING MONDAY. ON MONDAY, THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT A VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION IS PRESENT WHICH
WOULD KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE. THEREFORE, A GALE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT STARTING AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR ALL OUR
ZONES /LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR UPPER DELAWARE BAY/ AND CONTINUES
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AS WE GO THROUGH MONDAY, THE BEST MIXING
SHOULD SHIFT NEARSHORE AND OVER LAND. THEREFORE, WE DID NOT EXTEND
THE GALE WARNING ATTM. THE SEAS WILL BUILD QUITE A BIT DURING THE
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS, ALTHOUGH JUST HOW
MUCH WIND ACTUALLY MAKES IT TO THE SURFACE WILL INFLUENCE THE SEAS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...SW WIND SHIFTING TO WEST WITH THE CFP. SCA LIKELY.

TUESDAY...SCA EXPECTED DURING COLD AIR ADVECTION ON WESTERLY FLOW.

TUESDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY BELOW SCA CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY...STRONG NORTHEAST SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST SCA WITH A
POSSIBLE GALE. SEAS FORECAST ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS MAY BE 2
TO 4 FEET TOO LOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THANKSGIVING...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY FALL BELOW SCA
CRITERIA BUT ATLANTIC SEAS MAY NOT DROP BELOW 5 FT TIL AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...POSSIBLE SCA COLD AIR ADVECTION WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO THE
REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS BELOW FOR OUR FOUR
PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING UNBROKEN PERIOD OF
RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL SNOWFALL DATA.

BEST CHANCE OF COMING CLOSE TO A "DAILY" RECORD AS OF THIS SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS COLLABORATION APPEARS TO BE KABE.

DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS:

NOVEMBER 26TH:               NOVEMBER 27TH:       PERIOD OF RECORD:

ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955    1.2 INCHES 1978            1874

PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898         6.9 INCHES 1949,1938       1872

ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950         4.5 INCHES 1978            1894

ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925         7.0 INCHES 1938            1922

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 338
NEAR TERM...GORSE 338
SHORT TERM...GORSE 338
LONG TERM...DRAG 338
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 338
MARINE...GORSE 338
CLIMATE...KLINE 338









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 232038
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
338 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE EAST
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY INDICATES A POTENT TROUGH LIFTING NE INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE
GULF. AT THE SURFACE...A 995MB LOW IS DEVELOPING OVER NRN MS...WITH
A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS AL AND GA. LOCALLY...MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 50S OVER THE BULK OF THE AREA...TO
THE LOW 60S OVER SE PORTIONS. AREAS OF -RA HAVE BEGUN TO ENTER THE
SW PIEDMONT COUNTIES AND INTERIOR NE NC.

THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WILL CROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD DUE
TO A STRONG NEARLY 70KT LLJ. 12HR POPS FOR RAIN TONIGHT WILL REMAIN
AT 100%...AND WILL BE HIGHEST OVER WRN PORTIONS THROUGH SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD THE COAST OVERNIGHT. A
THUNDER MENTION WILL CONTINUE FOR COASTAL NE NC. COASTAL ERN VA AND
SE MD COULD HEAR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IT. SPC HAS CONTINUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE FOR NE NC COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE...AND ANY
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR APPEARS TO ARRIVE ONCE THE STRONGEST FORCING EXITS
THE REGION...SO THE SEVERE THREAT IS MINIMAL. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND 6HR PRESSURE FALLS OF -6MB TO -10MB PER GFS WILL RESULT
IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE COAST.
GUSTS FROM THE SSE DIRECTION OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 50S...WITH READINGS LIKELY TO RISE
AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG FORCING AND SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE SHOULD
RESULT IN A ~6HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN
TONIGHT...WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS AVERAGING 0.5 TO 0.75IN N-CENTRAL
PORTIONS AND 1.00-1.25IN NEAR THE COAST (AND NE NC).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION BY 12Z MON...WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE FAR WRN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUE. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING
EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY INLAND. A GUSTY SW WIND WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S (SEE THE CLIMO
SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS). 20-30% POPS WILL BE CONFINED TO E/SE
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS THE 23/12Z NAM REMAINS AN OUTLIER IN
LINGERING DEEPER MOISTURE.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED INLAND. CLOUDS POTENTIALLY LINGER NEAR THE
COAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE...AND LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TUE. HIGHS TUE
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER MORNING
LOWS FROM THE MID 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE.

23/12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEMONSTRATE AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEAR THE SOUTHEAST CONUS LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT. THIS LOW THEN TRACKS NNE
ALONG THE COAST WED BRINGING RA TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON A BUSY
TRAVEL DAY. OF NOTE THE 23/12Z NAM IS FLATTER AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE...BUT AT THIS TIME THE GFS/ECMWF SCENARIO IS PREFERRED
PER PMDHMD. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SOME WET SN COULD MIX IN AS THE
PCPN TAPERS OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO ANY
ACCUMULATION IS LOW AT THIS TIME...AS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO COOL
THE BOUNDARY LAYER FULLY BY DYNAMICAL COOLING AS ANY CAA IS MINIMAL.
CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE OFF THE 23/00Z GFS SUGGESTS THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SN WILL BE ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES.
CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 30S/LOW
40S INLAND...TO THE MID/UPPER 40S OVER SE PORTIONS...AND THESE WILL
LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z/23 RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF COMING MORE INTO LINE WRT PTNTL
LO PRES DEVELOPING ALG STALLED FNTL BNDRY NR THE SE CONUS CST LT
TUE/TUE NGT...THEN TRACKING NNE ALG THE CST WED INTO WED NGT. A
BUSY PD OF TRAVEL MIDWEEK INCRSLY LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY
RA...AND AS PTNTL CSTL STM WINDS DOWN (LT WED/WED NGT)...MDL TEMP
PROFILES SUGGEST PSBL RA ENDING AS WET SN INLAND. HAVE NUDGED POPS
UP TO 70-80% E PORTION W...40-60% INLAND ON WED.

PCPN/MOIST THEN MOVES E OF THE AREA AND OFF THE CST LATER WED
WED NGT...WITH POPS DIMINISHING FM W TO E. A MAINLY DRY FRONT
SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO EARLY FRI MORNG. HI PRES WILL
THEN BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI THRU SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE L40S W AND M/U40S E WED...IN THE U40S TO L50S THU...IN THE
M/U40S FRI...AND RANGE THRU THE 40S SAT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LWR 40S WED MORNG...IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S THU AND
FRI MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S SAT MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY
FROM THE COAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
THIS IS PUSHING ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS AND
IT WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
INITIALLY...JUST SEEING SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...BUT SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SLIDING NORTH THROUGH THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TN RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT...THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP THE COAST
AND SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 6Z AND 9Z. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. ALSO
EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUST.

BEHIND THE FRONT...AFTER 9Z...THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
AND STILL BE GUSTY TO AROUND 15 KTS. BUT ONCE IN THE WARM
SECTOR...SHOULD SLOWLY SEE CEILINGS IMPROVE AND COULD POTENTIALLY
SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER 15Z...AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVING IN
AND MIXING HELP CEILINGS TO RISE.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS COMES ON WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE ALONG THE COAST SPREADING RAIN AND LOW
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST UPDATED WITH AN UPGRADE TO GALE WARNING OVR THE OCEAN.
DESPITE WARM AIR OVR COOL WATER TEMPS...WITH A STRONG PRES
GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT AND WEAK LO PRES
DEVELOPMENT OVR NRN VA...AND LATEST NAM12 PROGGING 925 MB WINDS
~75 KT...THINK THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW HRS OF WINDS AOA
34 KT OVR THE OCEAN TNGT. SEAS WILL REACH 6-8 FT. GUSTS MAY COME
CLOSE TO GALE FORCE OVR THE BAY AS WELL (AT LEAST AT ELEVATED
SITES) WHERE STRONG SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. ALSO
MAINTAINED THE SCA HEADLINES FOR THE OTHER WTRS. THE GALE WARNING
ENDS LATE MON MORNING...BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AS GUSTS COULD
CONTINUE IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE THRU THE AFTN HRS. THE SCA
HEADLINES ALL END DURING THE DAY MON AS WINDS DECREASE JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE WTRS LATE MON NGT/TUE MORNG.
IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS THEN INTO TUE WITH HI PRES OVR THE
AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ633-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632.
     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...ALB/TMG
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...AKQ





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 232038
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
338 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE EAST
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY INDICATES A POTENT TROUGH LIFTING NE INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE
GULF. AT THE SURFACE...A 995MB LOW IS DEVELOPING OVER NRN MS...WITH
A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS AL AND GA. LOCALLY...MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 50S OVER THE BULK OF THE AREA...TO
THE LOW 60S OVER SE PORTIONS. AREAS OF -RA HAVE BEGUN TO ENTER THE
SW PIEDMONT COUNTIES AND INTERIOR NE NC.

THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WILL CROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD DUE
TO A STRONG NEARLY 70KT LLJ. 12HR POPS FOR RAIN TONIGHT WILL REMAIN
AT 100%...AND WILL BE HIGHEST OVER WRN PORTIONS THROUGH SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD THE COAST OVERNIGHT. A
THUNDER MENTION WILL CONTINUE FOR COASTAL NE NC. COASTAL ERN VA AND
SE MD COULD HEAR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IT. SPC HAS CONTINUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE FOR NE NC COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE...AND ANY
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR APPEARS TO ARRIVE ONCE THE STRONGEST FORCING EXITS
THE REGION...SO THE SEVERE THREAT IS MINIMAL. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND 6HR PRESSURE FALLS OF -6MB TO -10MB PER GFS WILL RESULT
IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE COAST.
GUSTS FROM THE SSE DIRECTION OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 50S...WITH READINGS LIKELY TO RISE
AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG FORCING AND SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE SHOULD
RESULT IN A ~6HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN
TONIGHT...WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS AVERAGING 0.5 TO 0.75IN N-CENTRAL
PORTIONS AND 1.00-1.25IN NEAR THE COAST (AND NE NC).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION BY 12Z MON...WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE FAR WRN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUE. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING
EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY INLAND. A GUSTY SW WIND WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S (SEE THE CLIMO
SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS). 20-30% POPS WILL BE CONFINED TO E/SE
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS THE 23/12Z NAM REMAINS AN OUTLIER IN
LINGERING DEEPER MOISTURE.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED INLAND. CLOUDS POTENTIALLY LINGER NEAR THE
COAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE...AND LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TUE. HIGHS TUE
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER MORNING
LOWS FROM THE MID 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE.

23/12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEMONSTRATE AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEAR THE SOUTHEAST CONUS LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT. THIS LOW THEN TRACKS NNE
ALONG THE COAST WED BRINGING RA TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON A BUSY
TRAVEL DAY. OF NOTE THE 23/12Z NAM IS FLATTER AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE...BUT AT THIS TIME THE GFS/ECMWF SCENARIO IS PREFERRED
PER PMDHMD. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SOME WET SN COULD MIX IN AS THE
PCPN TAPERS OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO ANY
ACCUMULATION IS LOW AT THIS TIME...AS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO COOL
THE BOUNDARY LAYER FULLY BY DYNAMICAL COOLING AS ANY CAA IS MINIMAL.
CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE OFF THE 23/00Z GFS SUGGESTS THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SN WILL BE ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES.
CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 30S/LOW
40S INLAND...TO THE MID/UPPER 40S OVER SE PORTIONS...AND THESE WILL
LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z/23 RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF COMING MORE INTO LINE WRT PTNTL
LO PRES DEVELOPING ALG STALLED FNTL BNDRY NR THE SE CONUS CST LT
TUE/TUE NGT...THEN TRACKING NNE ALG THE CST WED INTO WED NGT. A
BUSY PD OF TRAVEL MIDWEEK INCRSLY LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY
RA...AND AS PTNTL CSTL STM WINDS DOWN (LT WED/WED NGT)...MDL TEMP
PROFILES SUGGEST PSBL RA ENDING AS WET SN INLAND. HAVE NUDGED POPS
UP TO 70-80% E PORTION W...40-60% INLAND ON WED.

PCPN/MOIST THEN MOVES E OF THE AREA AND OFF THE CST LATER WED
WED NGT...WITH POPS DIMINISHING FM W TO E. A MAINLY DRY FRONT
SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO EARLY FRI MORNG. HI PRES WILL
THEN BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI THRU SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE L40S W AND M/U40S E WED...IN THE U40S TO L50S THU...IN THE
M/U40S FRI...AND RANGE THRU THE 40S SAT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LWR 40S WED MORNG...IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S THU AND
FRI MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S SAT MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY
FROM THE COAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
THIS IS PUSHING ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS AND
IT WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
INITIALLY...JUST SEEING SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...BUT SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SLIDING NORTH THROUGH THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TN RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT...THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP THE COAST
AND SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 6Z AND 9Z. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. ALSO
EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUST.

BEHIND THE FRONT...AFTER 9Z...THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
AND STILL BE GUSTY TO AROUND 15 KTS. BUT ONCE IN THE WARM
SECTOR...SHOULD SLOWLY SEE CEILINGS IMPROVE AND COULD POTENTIALLY
SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER 15Z...AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVING IN
AND MIXING HELP CEILINGS TO RISE.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS COMES ON WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE ALONG THE COAST SPREADING RAIN AND LOW
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST UPDATED WITH AN UPGRADE TO GALE WARNING OVR THE OCEAN.
DESPITE WARM AIR OVR COOL WATER TEMPS...WITH A STRONG PRES
GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT AND WEAK LO PRES
DEVELOPMENT OVR NRN VA...AND LATEST NAM12 PROGGING 925 MB WINDS
~75 KT...THINK THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW HRS OF WINDS AOA
34 KT OVR THE OCEAN TNGT. SEAS WILL REACH 6-8 FT. GUSTS MAY COME
CLOSE TO GALE FORCE OVR THE BAY AS WELL (AT LEAST AT ELEVATED
SITES) WHERE STRONG SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. ALSO
MAINTAINED THE SCA HEADLINES FOR THE OTHER WTRS. THE GALE WARNING
ENDS LATE MON MORNING...BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AS GUSTS COULD
CONTINUE IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE THRU THE AFTN HRS. THE SCA
HEADLINES ALL END DURING THE DAY MON AS WINDS DECREASE JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE WTRS LATE MON NGT/TUE MORNG.
IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS THEN INTO TUE WITH HI PRES OVR THE
AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ633-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632.
     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...ALB/TMG
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KLWX 231952
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
252 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFYING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

LOTS OF CHGS TO TAKE PLACE WX WISE IN THE NEXT SVRL DAYS. THE TNGT
PD IS NO XCPTN. AFTR A GRADUAL WARMUP OVR THE PAST SVRL DAYS WE`LL
SEE A WARM FNT PUSH THRU THE MID ATLC AFTR MDNGT. THIS IN ITSELF
IS SOMEWHAT UNCOMMON - WARM FNTS GNRLY HV A HARDER TIME PUSHING
THRU AT NGT...BUT THE EWD TRACKING OF THE PRVSLY BLOCKING HIGH AND
AND THE EWD PUSH OF THE FNTS TO OUR W WL AID IN PUSHING THE WARM
FNT N. AS A RESULT RA WL BRK OUT ACROSS THE AREA...AND TEMPS WL
RISE OVRNGT. WE WL BE IN A HIGH SHEAR/NO CAPE ENVIRONMENT BTWN 10
PM AND 4 AM. ALTHO NO THUNDER IS CURRENTLY BEING SEEN TO THE S A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

LOWS SHOULD HAPPEN B4 MDNGT THEN RISING OVRNGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...

MON THE WARM FNT HAS PUSHED N OF US AND PCPN WL COME TO AN END. IT
SHOULD BE A WARM DAY W/ SRLY WINDS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH TE M70S IN
MANY SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC MONDAY
EVENING...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
BETWEEN 00-06Z. THE FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED...WITH ONLY A
SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF I-95. THERE IS A CHANCE
UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...WHICH WILL MAINLY BE IN
THE FORM OF RAIN DUE TO WARM STARTING TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH SNOW
MAY MIX IN AS TEMPERATURES COOL OVERNIGHT. NOT A FAVORABLE SET UP
FOR PROLONGED UPSLOPE THOUGH...SO POPS TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT.
COLD AIR WILL BE SLOW TO WORK EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR FREEZING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO UPPER 40S
NEAR THE BAY.

THE FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NOSING IN ON SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CAA SLOWS...SO DESPITE BEING
COOLER...NOT A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S UNDER A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INITIATE SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE FRONT
BUCKLES AND LOW BEGINS TO TURN UP THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD...SOME
MOISTURE MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. IF IT
DOES SO...IT WOULD MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN MD TO CENTRAL VA...WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN. LOWS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S.

WED IS A CHALLENGE. THE KEY AT THIS PT IN TIME IS TO NOTE THIS IS
STILL 3 DAYS HENCE AND THERE CAN BE CHGS TO THE FCST. LOW PRES IS
XPCTD TO FORM IN THE GULFMEX ON THE DEPARTED CD FNT AND THEN MOVE
N ALONG THE ALTC SEABOARD WED. DEPENDING ON THE MDL THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE POSN OF THE LOW...FM OVR HAT/ORF WED AFTN TO A
HUNDRED MILES OUT TO SEA. W/ THE LOW E OF THE FCST AREA THIS WL
ALLOW CD AIR TO BE DRAWN INTO THE MID ATLC - SUB 130 DM. MOISTURE WL
TO BE DRAWN INTO THE RGN...LKLY CAUSING SNOW TO FALL AT HIGHER
ELEVS AND ALONG M-D LN...A MIX FM THE BLU RDG TO I-95...AND MAINLY
RA E OF I-95. SVRL INCHES OF SNOWFALL ARE PSBL WED...AGN MAINLY AT
HIGHER ELEVS.

THERE IS NO BLOCKING HIGH TO HOLD THIS LOW NEAR THE DELMARVA. IT
IS PROJECTED TO MOVE E OF NJ BY 00Z THU. THIS WOULD LKLY BRING AN
END TO THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW.

UPSLOPE SNOWS PSBL THU OVR THE HIGHLANDS. HIGH PRES BLDS INTO THE
AREA FRI. UPR LVL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZNL FOR THE WKND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

VFR CONDS FOR RMNDR OF AFTN. CONDS ARE XPCTD TO BEGIN TO
DETERIORATE AFTR 00Z..DROPPING TO IFR OVRNGT. CIGS WL LKLY IMPROVE
AFTR SUNRISE MON.

WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING WITH DIRECTION SHIFTING FROM
SOUTH TO WEST. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS ALONG THE COAST ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW
AFFECTING THE REGION. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFICS AT THIS
TIME...BUT IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

SRLY WINDS XPCTD TO INCRS TNGT ALONG W/ THE PSBLTY OF ISOLD
THUNDER. SCA IN EFFECT TNGT AND MON.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING AND SHIFT IN DIRECTION FROM
SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXTENDED THE
SCA TO 1 AM FOR MOST OF THE WATERS. LIGHT WINDS THE REST OF MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES OFFSHORE WHICH WILL LIKELY
NECESSITATE A SCA. MORE SCA-LEVEL GUSTS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

WINDS ON THE MID CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE TEMP CONTRAST BETWEEN THE AIR AND
WATER...MUCH BETTER WINDS WILL BE CONFINED ALOFT. EVEN THE
TYPICALLY AGGRESSIVE CBOFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE WL BE NO
WATER LVL RISE WITH TIDES TODAY OR TONIGHT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED OF COURSE...BUT EVEN IF THERE WERE MODEL ERRORS STILL DO
NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ISSUES.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ531>534-536-537-539>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ530-535-538.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/ADS/CEM/BPP









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231942
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
242 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
GUSTY WINDS MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A SHRTWV AND SFC WRM FNT WL ADVN ACRS THE OH VLY AND GT LKS RGN
TNGT. AMPLE DEEP MOISTURE...UPR SPPRT...AND LLVL JET IN PLACE CONT
TO ALLOW FOR CAT POPS FOR RAIN. RAIN IS EXPD TO END TAPER OFF OR
END BEFORE DAWN AS THE SHRTWV AND SFC FNT EXIT. TEMPS SHOULD
INITIALLY DROP AT PCPN ONSET...THEN BEGIN TO RISE LT TNGT IN WRM
ADVCTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPR TROFG AND A DEEPENING SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO
THE UPR GT LKS MON. THE LOWS ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS PROGGED FOR A MON
AFTN PASSAGE ACRS OUR RGN. MSTR IS LTD SO MAINTAINED CHC POPS WITH
FROPA. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ARND THE DEEPENING LOW SHOULD
BRING GUSTY SFC WNDS AS MXG BEGINS MON. FCST SOUNDINGS/GUST
TECHNIQUES INDICATE GUSTS TO ARND 50 MPH ARE LIKELY. WL ISSUE A
WIND ADVISORY FM LT MON MRNG INTO ERLY EVE AS WNDS WL LIKELY STAY
GUSTY FOR A FEW HRS AFT FROPA.

COLD ADVCTN KICKS IN AFT FROPA AS BROAD UPR TROFG RMNS ACRS THE GT
LKS AND UPR MIDWEST THRU TUE. STRATOCU IS EXPD...THOUGH SNW SHWR
CHCS WL BE MINIMAL WITH A SW BNDRY LYR FLOW PREVENTING ANY LK
CONNECTIONS OR SGFNT UPSLOPE COMPONENT.

ANOTHER BROAD UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO SET UP BY MID WK...AS A
COASTAL LOW DVLPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC RGN. THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS
TRACK RMNS IN QN...AND THIS WL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE POTENTIAL AMT
AND LOCATION OF SNW THAT THIS SYSTEM BRINGS. THE SREF SOLN LOOKS
VRY REASONABLE ATTM GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC PTN ATTM...WHICH BRINGS SNW
CHCS FM PIT EWD...AND KEEPS THE HEAVIEST PCPN E OF OUR AREA.

TEMPS ARE EXPD TO RCH 10-15 DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS MON...BUT WL DCR
TO ARND 10 DEG BLO AVG BY TUE AND WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LARGE VARIATIONS IN GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG RANGE AND ADJUSTED
FORECAST WITH THE NEW WPC PROGS TEMPERED WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF. AS
STORM SYSTEM MOVES UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS INTO
THANKSGIVING DAY FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL AFTER 00Z WHEN WARM FRONT AND SHORTWAVE WILL
QUICKLY MOVE NORTH AHEAD OF GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE. WIDESPREAD
MVFR VSBY AND CIGS OVERNIGHT TO DAYBREAK. FOR MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE CRANKS UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
WITH GUSTS TO 35KTS EXPECTED MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
     048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ001>004-
     012-021>023-041.

&&

$$

07/10






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231942
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
242 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
GUSTY WINDS MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A SHRTWV AND SFC WRM FNT WL ADVN ACRS THE OH VLY AND GT LKS RGN
TNGT. AMPLE DEEP MOISTURE...UPR SPPRT...AND LLVL JET IN PLACE CONT
TO ALLOW FOR CAT POPS FOR RAIN. RAIN IS EXPD TO END TAPER OFF OR
END BEFORE DAWN AS THE SHRTWV AND SFC FNT EXIT. TEMPS SHOULD
INITIALLY DROP AT PCPN ONSET...THEN BEGIN TO RISE LT TNGT IN WRM
ADVCTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPR TROFG AND A DEEPENING SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO
THE UPR GT LKS MON. THE LOWS ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS PROGGED FOR A MON
AFTN PASSAGE ACRS OUR RGN. MSTR IS LTD SO MAINTAINED CHC POPS WITH
FROPA. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ARND THE DEEPENING LOW SHOULD
BRING GUSTY SFC WNDS AS MXG BEGINS MON. FCST SOUNDINGS/GUST
TECHNIQUES INDICATE GUSTS TO ARND 50 MPH ARE LIKELY. WL ISSUE A
WIND ADVISORY FM LT MON MRNG INTO ERLY EVE AS WNDS WL LIKELY STAY
GUSTY FOR A FEW HRS AFT FROPA.

COLD ADVCTN KICKS IN AFT FROPA AS BROAD UPR TROFG RMNS ACRS THE GT
LKS AND UPR MIDWEST THRU TUE. STRATOCU IS EXPD...THOUGH SNW SHWR
CHCS WL BE MINIMAL WITH A SW BNDRY LYR FLOW PREVENTING ANY LK
CONNECTIONS OR SGFNT UPSLOPE COMPONENT.

ANOTHER BROAD UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO SET UP BY MID WK...AS A
COASTAL LOW DVLPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC RGN. THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS
TRACK RMNS IN QN...AND THIS WL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE POTENTIAL AMT
AND LOCATION OF SNW THAT THIS SYSTEM BRINGS. THE SREF SOLN LOOKS
VRY REASONABLE ATTM GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC PTN ATTM...WHICH BRINGS SNW
CHCS FM PIT EWD...AND KEEPS THE HEAVIEST PCPN E OF OUR AREA.

TEMPS ARE EXPD TO RCH 10-15 DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS MON...BUT WL DCR
TO ARND 10 DEG BLO AVG BY TUE AND WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LARGE VARIATIONS IN GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG RANGE AND ADJUSTED
FORECAST WITH THE NEW WPC PROGS TEMPERED WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF. AS
STORM SYSTEM MOVES UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS INTO
THANKSGIVING DAY FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL AFTER 00Z WHEN WARM FRONT AND SHORTWAVE WILL
QUICKLY MOVE NORTH AHEAD OF GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE. WIDESPREAD
MVFR VSBY AND CIGS OVERNIGHT TO DAYBREAK. FOR MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE CRANKS UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
WITH GUSTS TO 35KTS EXPECTED MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
     048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ001>004-
     012-021>023-041.

&&

$$

07/10






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231942
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
242 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
GUSTY WINDS MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A SHRTWV AND SFC WRM FNT WL ADVN ACRS THE OH VLY AND GT LKS RGN
TNGT. AMPLE DEEP MOISTURE...UPR SPPRT...AND LLVL JET IN PLACE CONT
TO ALLOW FOR CAT POPS FOR RAIN. RAIN IS EXPD TO END TAPER OFF OR
END BEFORE DAWN AS THE SHRTWV AND SFC FNT EXIT. TEMPS SHOULD
INITIALLY DROP AT PCPN ONSET...THEN BEGIN TO RISE LT TNGT IN WRM
ADVCTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPR TROFG AND A DEEPENING SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO
THE UPR GT LKS MON. THE LOWS ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS PROGGED FOR A MON
AFTN PASSAGE ACRS OUR RGN. MSTR IS LTD SO MAINTAINED CHC POPS WITH
FROPA. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ARND THE DEEPENING LOW SHOULD
BRING GUSTY SFC WNDS AS MXG BEGINS MON. FCST SOUNDINGS/GUST
TECHNIQUES INDICATE GUSTS TO ARND 50 MPH ARE LIKELY. WL ISSUE A
WIND ADVISORY FM LT MON MRNG INTO ERLY EVE AS WNDS WL LIKELY STAY
GUSTY FOR A FEW HRS AFT FROPA.

COLD ADVCTN KICKS IN AFT FROPA AS BROAD UPR TROFG RMNS ACRS THE GT
LKS AND UPR MIDWEST THRU TUE. STRATOCU IS EXPD...THOUGH SNW SHWR
CHCS WL BE MINIMAL WITH A SW BNDRY LYR FLOW PREVENTING ANY LK
CONNECTIONS OR SGFNT UPSLOPE COMPONENT.

ANOTHER BROAD UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO SET UP BY MID WK...AS A
COASTAL LOW DVLPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC RGN. THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS
TRACK RMNS IN QN...AND THIS WL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE POTENTIAL AMT
AND LOCATION OF SNW THAT THIS SYSTEM BRINGS. THE SREF SOLN LOOKS
VRY REASONABLE ATTM GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC PTN ATTM...WHICH BRINGS SNW
CHCS FM PIT EWD...AND KEEPS THE HEAVIEST PCPN E OF OUR AREA.

TEMPS ARE EXPD TO RCH 10-15 DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS MON...BUT WL DCR
TO ARND 10 DEG BLO AVG BY TUE AND WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LARGE VARIATIONS IN GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG RANGE AND ADJUSTED
FORECAST WITH THE NEW WPC PROGS TEMPERED WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF. AS
STORM SYSTEM MOVES UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS INTO
THANKSGIVING DAY FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL AFTER 00Z WHEN WARM FRONT AND SHORTWAVE WILL
QUICKLY MOVE NORTH AHEAD OF GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE. WIDESPREAD
MVFR VSBY AND CIGS OVERNIGHT TO DAYBREAK. FOR MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE CRANKS UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
WITH GUSTS TO 35KTS EXPECTED MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
     048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ001>004-
     012-021>023-041.

&&

$$

07/10






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231942
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
242 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
GUSTY WINDS MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A SHRTWV AND SFC WRM FNT WL ADVN ACRS THE OH VLY AND GT LKS RGN
TNGT. AMPLE DEEP MOISTURE...UPR SPPRT...AND LLVL JET IN PLACE CONT
TO ALLOW FOR CAT POPS FOR RAIN. RAIN IS EXPD TO END TAPER OFF OR
END BEFORE DAWN AS THE SHRTWV AND SFC FNT EXIT. TEMPS SHOULD
INITIALLY DROP AT PCPN ONSET...THEN BEGIN TO RISE LT TNGT IN WRM
ADVCTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPR TROFG AND A DEEPENING SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO
THE UPR GT LKS MON. THE LOWS ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS PROGGED FOR A MON
AFTN PASSAGE ACRS OUR RGN. MSTR IS LTD SO MAINTAINED CHC POPS WITH
FROPA. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ARND THE DEEPENING LOW SHOULD
BRING GUSTY SFC WNDS AS MXG BEGINS MON. FCST SOUNDINGS/GUST
TECHNIQUES INDICATE GUSTS TO ARND 50 MPH ARE LIKELY. WL ISSUE A
WIND ADVISORY FM LT MON MRNG INTO ERLY EVE AS WNDS WL LIKELY STAY
GUSTY FOR A FEW HRS AFT FROPA.

COLD ADVCTN KICKS IN AFT FROPA AS BROAD UPR TROFG RMNS ACRS THE GT
LKS AND UPR MIDWEST THRU TUE. STRATOCU IS EXPD...THOUGH SNW SHWR
CHCS WL BE MINIMAL WITH A SW BNDRY LYR FLOW PREVENTING ANY LK
CONNECTIONS OR SGFNT UPSLOPE COMPONENT.

ANOTHER BROAD UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO SET UP BY MID WK...AS A
COASTAL LOW DVLPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC RGN. THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS
TRACK RMNS IN QN...AND THIS WL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE POTENTIAL AMT
AND LOCATION OF SNW THAT THIS SYSTEM BRINGS. THE SREF SOLN LOOKS
VRY REASONABLE ATTM GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC PTN ATTM...WHICH BRINGS SNW
CHCS FM PIT EWD...AND KEEPS THE HEAVIEST PCPN E OF OUR AREA.

TEMPS ARE EXPD TO RCH 10-15 DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS MON...BUT WL DCR
TO ARND 10 DEG BLO AVG BY TUE AND WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LARGE VARIATIONS IN GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG RANGE AND ADJUSTED
FORECAST WITH THE NEW WPC PROGS TEMPERED WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF. AS
STORM SYSTEM MOVES UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS INTO
THANKSGIVING DAY FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL AFTER 00Z WHEN WARM FRONT AND SHORTWAVE WILL
QUICKLY MOVE NORTH AHEAD OF GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE. WIDESPREAD
MVFR VSBY AND CIGS OVERNIGHT TO DAYBREAK. FOR MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE CRANKS UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
WITH GUSTS TO 35KTS EXPECTED MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
     048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ001>004-
     012-021>023-041.

&&

$$

07/10






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 231850
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
150 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE EAST
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HI PRES NOW OFF THE CST...WILL CONT TO SLO DRIFT E AWAY FM THE
CST THROUGH TDA. CLOUDS CONT TO THICKEN AND LWR FM THE SW AS GULF
COAST MOISTURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFT NE THROUGH THE SE
CONUS...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. XPCG MUCH OF THE DAY TO BE DRY...BUT SOME RAIN
SHOULD ARRIVE IN FAR SW PORTIONS OF LATE IN THE DAY. WILL CONT W/
INCRSG POPS TO 50-60% POPS SW LATE IN THE DAY...W/ RIBBON OF
30-40% POP FROM THE NW PIEDMONT THROUGH NE NC. HI TEMPS RANGING FM
THE M50S NW TO L60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WILL CROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TNGT. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE (PWTRS INCRSG TO 1.5 TO
2 IN 00-06Z/24 PER 00Z/23 GFS) WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DUE TO A
STRONG NEARLY 70KT LLJ. POPS FOR RAIN DURING THE 12HR PERIOD TNGT
WILL CONT AT 100%. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
COASTAL NE NC (NOT READY TO ADD TO OTHER AREAS - ESP ERN VA/LWR SE
MD BUT WOULDN`T RULE IT OUT)...AND SPC HAS OUTLINED THAT AREA
(CSTL NE NC) IN SLGT CHC SVR. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
6HR PRESSURE FALLS OF -6MB TO -10MB GFS WILL RESULT IN
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE COAST.
GUSTS FROM THE SSE DIRECTION OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. LO
TEMPS TNGT SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 50S...WITH READINGS LIKELY TO
RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG FORCING AND SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
SHOULD RESULT IN A ~6HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAIN TNGT...WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS AVERAGING 0.5 TO 0.75 IN
N/CNTRL AND 1.00-1.25 IN NR THE CST (AND NE NC).

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION BY 12Z/25...W/ A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE FAR WRN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUE. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING...WITH A GUSTY SW WIND
DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S (SEE THE
THE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS). WILL LIMIT ANY POPS TO FAR
ESE AREAS OF FA AS 00Z/23 NAM RMNS OUTLIER IN LINGERING MOISTURE
ACRS THOSE LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS XPCD INLAND...WITH PSBL CLOUDS LINGERING RIGHT ALG THE
COAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TUE. HIGHS TUE
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER MORNING
LOWS FROM THE MID 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z/23 RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF COMING MORE INTO LINE WRT PTNTL
LO PRES DEVELOPING ALG STALLED FNTL BNDRY NR THE SE CONUS CST LT
TUE/TUE NGT...THEN TRACKING NNE ALG THE CST WED INTO WED NGT. A
BUSY PD OF TRAVEL MIDWEEK INCRSLY LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY
RA...AND AS PTNTL CSTL STM WINDS DOWN (LT WED/WED NGT)...MDL TEMP
PROFILES SUGGEST PSBL RA ENDING AS WET SN INLAND. HAVE NUDGED POPS
UP TO 70-80% E PORTION W...40-60% INLAND ON WED.

PCPN/MOIST THEN MOVES E OF THE AREA AND OFF THE CST LATER WED
WED NGT...WITH POPS DIMINISHING FM W TO E. A MAINLY DRY FRONT
SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO EARLY FRI MORNG. HI PRES WILL
THEN BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI THRU SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE L40S W AND M/U40S E WED...IN THE U40S TO L50S THU...IN THE
M/U40S FRI...AND RANGE THRU THE 40S SAT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LWR 40S WED MORNG...IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S THU AND
FRI MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S SAT MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY
FROM THE COAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
THIS IS PUSHING ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS AND
IT WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
INITIALLY...JUST SEEING SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...BUT SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SLIDING NORTH THROUGH THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TN RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT...THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP THE COAST
AND SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 6Z AND 9Z. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. ALSO
EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUST.

BEHIND THE FRONT...AFTER 9Z...THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
AND STILL BE GUSTY TO AROUND 15 KTS. BUT ONCE IN THE WARM
SECTOR...SHOULD SLOWLY SEE CEILINGS IMPROVE AND COULD POTENTIALLY
SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER 15Z...AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVING IN
AND MIXING HELP CEILINGS TO RISE.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS COMES ON WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE ALONG THE COAST SPREADING RAIN AND LOW
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST UPDATED WITH AN UPGRADE TO GALE WARNING OVR THE OCEAN.
DESPITE WARM AIR OVR COOL WATER TEMPS...WITH A STRONG PRES
GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT AND WEAK LO PRES
DEVELOPMENT OVR NRN VA...AND LATEST NAM12 PROGGING 925 MB WINDS
~75 KT...THINK THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW HRS OF WINDS AOA
34 KT OVR THE OCEAN TNGT. SEAS WILL REACH 6-8 FT. GUSTS MAY COME
CLOSE TO GALE FORCE OVR THE BAY AS WELL (AT LEAST AT ELEVATED
SITES) WHERE STRONG SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. ALSO
MAINTAINED THE SCA HEADLINES FOR THE OTHER WTRS. THE GALE WARNING
ENDS LATE MON MORNING...BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AS GUSTS COULD
CONTINUE IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE THRU THE AFTN HRS. THE SCA
HEADLINES ALL END DURING THE DAY MON AS WINDS DECREASE JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE WTRS LATE MON NGT/TUE MORNG.
IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS THEN INTO TUE WITH HI PRES OVR THE
AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ633-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632.
     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...ALB/TMG
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 231850
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
150 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE EAST
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HI PRES NOW OFF THE CST...WILL CONT TO SLO DRIFT E AWAY FM THE
CST THROUGH TDA. CLOUDS CONT TO THICKEN AND LWR FM THE SW AS GULF
COAST MOISTURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFT NE THROUGH THE SE
CONUS...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. XPCG MUCH OF THE DAY TO BE DRY...BUT SOME RAIN
SHOULD ARRIVE IN FAR SW PORTIONS OF LATE IN THE DAY. WILL CONT W/
INCRSG POPS TO 50-60% POPS SW LATE IN THE DAY...W/ RIBBON OF
30-40% POP FROM THE NW PIEDMONT THROUGH NE NC. HI TEMPS RANGING FM
THE M50S NW TO L60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WILL CROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TNGT. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE (PWTRS INCRSG TO 1.5 TO
2 IN 00-06Z/24 PER 00Z/23 GFS) WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DUE TO A
STRONG NEARLY 70KT LLJ. POPS FOR RAIN DURING THE 12HR PERIOD TNGT
WILL CONT AT 100%. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
COASTAL NE NC (NOT READY TO ADD TO OTHER AREAS - ESP ERN VA/LWR SE
MD BUT WOULDN`T RULE IT OUT)...AND SPC HAS OUTLINED THAT AREA
(CSTL NE NC) IN SLGT CHC SVR. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
6HR PRESSURE FALLS OF -6MB TO -10MB GFS WILL RESULT IN
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE COAST.
GUSTS FROM THE SSE DIRECTION OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. LO
TEMPS TNGT SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 50S...WITH READINGS LIKELY TO
RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG FORCING AND SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
SHOULD RESULT IN A ~6HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAIN TNGT...WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS AVERAGING 0.5 TO 0.75 IN
N/CNTRL AND 1.00-1.25 IN NR THE CST (AND NE NC).

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION BY 12Z/25...W/ A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE FAR WRN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUE. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING...WITH A GUSTY SW WIND
DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S (SEE THE
THE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS). WILL LIMIT ANY POPS TO FAR
ESE AREAS OF FA AS 00Z/23 NAM RMNS OUTLIER IN LINGERING MOISTURE
ACRS THOSE LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS XPCD INLAND...WITH PSBL CLOUDS LINGERING RIGHT ALG THE
COAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TUE. HIGHS TUE
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER MORNING
LOWS FROM THE MID 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z/23 RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF COMING MORE INTO LINE WRT PTNTL
LO PRES DEVELOPING ALG STALLED FNTL BNDRY NR THE SE CONUS CST LT
TUE/TUE NGT...THEN TRACKING NNE ALG THE CST WED INTO WED NGT. A
BUSY PD OF TRAVEL MIDWEEK INCRSLY LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY
RA...AND AS PTNTL CSTL STM WINDS DOWN (LT WED/WED NGT)...MDL TEMP
PROFILES SUGGEST PSBL RA ENDING AS WET SN INLAND. HAVE NUDGED POPS
UP TO 70-80% E PORTION W...40-60% INLAND ON WED.

PCPN/MOIST THEN MOVES E OF THE AREA AND OFF THE CST LATER WED
WED NGT...WITH POPS DIMINISHING FM W TO E. A MAINLY DRY FRONT
SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO EARLY FRI MORNG. HI PRES WILL
THEN BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI THRU SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE L40S W AND M/U40S E WED...IN THE U40S TO L50S THU...IN THE
M/U40S FRI...AND RANGE THRU THE 40S SAT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LWR 40S WED MORNG...IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S THU AND
FRI MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S SAT MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY
FROM THE COAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
THIS IS PUSHING ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS AND
IT WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
INITIALLY...JUST SEEING SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...BUT SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SLIDING NORTH THROUGH THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TN RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT...THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP THE COAST
AND SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 6Z AND 9Z. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. ALSO
EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUST.

BEHIND THE FRONT...AFTER 9Z...THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
AND STILL BE GUSTY TO AROUND 15 KTS. BUT ONCE IN THE WARM
SECTOR...SHOULD SLOWLY SEE CEILINGS IMPROVE AND COULD POTENTIALLY
SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER 15Z...AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVING IN
AND MIXING HELP CEILINGS TO RISE.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS COMES ON WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE ALONG THE COAST SPREADING RAIN AND LOW
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST UPDATED WITH AN UPGRADE TO GALE WARNING OVR THE OCEAN.
DESPITE WARM AIR OVR COOL WATER TEMPS...WITH A STRONG PRES
GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT AND WEAK LO PRES
DEVELOPMENT OVR NRN VA...AND LATEST NAM12 PROGGING 925 MB WINDS
~75 KT...THINK THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW HRS OF WINDS AOA
34 KT OVR THE OCEAN TNGT. SEAS WILL REACH 6-8 FT. GUSTS MAY COME
CLOSE TO GALE FORCE OVR THE BAY AS WELL (AT LEAST AT ELEVATED
SITES) WHERE STRONG SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. ALSO
MAINTAINED THE SCA HEADLINES FOR THE OTHER WTRS. THE GALE WARNING
ENDS LATE MON MORNING...BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AS GUSTS COULD
CONTINUE IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE THRU THE AFTN HRS. THE SCA
HEADLINES ALL END DURING THE DAY MON AS WINDS DECREASE JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE WTRS LATE MON NGT/TUE MORNG.
IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS THEN INTO TUE WITH HI PRES OVR THE
AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ633-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632.
     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...ALB/TMG
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 231850
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
150 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE EAST
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HI PRES NOW OFF THE CST...WILL CONT TO SLO DRIFT E AWAY FM THE
CST THROUGH TDA. CLOUDS CONT TO THICKEN AND LWR FM THE SW AS GULF
COAST MOISTURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFT NE THROUGH THE SE
CONUS...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. XPCG MUCH OF THE DAY TO BE DRY...BUT SOME RAIN
SHOULD ARRIVE IN FAR SW PORTIONS OF LATE IN THE DAY. WILL CONT W/
INCRSG POPS TO 50-60% POPS SW LATE IN THE DAY...W/ RIBBON OF
30-40% POP FROM THE NW PIEDMONT THROUGH NE NC. HI TEMPS RANGING FM
THE M50S NW TO L60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WILL CROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TNGT. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE (PWTRS INCRSG TO 1.5 TO
2 IN 00-06Z/24 PER 00Z/23 GFS) WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DUE TO A
STRONG NEARLY 70KT LLJ. POPS FOR RAIN DURING THE 12HR PERIOD TNGT
WILL CONT AT 100%. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
COASTAL NE NC (NOT READY TO ADD TO OTHER AREAS - ESP ERN VA/LWR SE
MD BUT WOULDN`T RULE IT OUT)...AND SPC HAS OUTLINED THAT AREA
(CSTL NE NC) IN SLGT CHC SVR. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
6HR PRESSURE FALLS OF -6MB TO -10MB GFS WILL RESULT IN
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE COAST.
GUSTS FROM THE SSE DIRECTION OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. LO
TEMPS TNGT SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 50S...WITH READINGS LIKELY TO
RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG FORCING AND SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
SHOULD RESULT IN A ~6HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAIN TNGT...WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS AVERAGING 0.5 TO 0.75 IN
N/CNTRL AND 1.00-1.25 IN NR THE CST (AND NE NC).

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION BY 12Z/25...W/ A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE FAR WRN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUE. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING...WITH A GUSTY SW WIND
DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S (SEE THE
THE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS). WILL LIMIT ANY POPS TO FAR
ESE AREAS OF FA AS 00Z/23 NAM RMNS OUTLIER IN LINGERING MOISTURE
ACRS THOSE LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS XPCD INLAND...WITH PSBL CLOUDS LINGERING RIGHT ALG THE
COAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TUE. HIGHS TUE
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER MORNING
LOWS FROM THE MID 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z/23 RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF COMING MORE INTO LINE WRT PTNTL
LO PRES DEVELOPING ALG STALLED FNTL BNDRY NR THE SE CONUS CST LT
TUE/TUE NGT...THEN TRACKING NNE ALG THE CST WED INTO WED NGT. A
BUSY PD OF TRAVEL MIDWEEK INCRSLY LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY
RA...AND AS PTNTL CSTL STM WINDS DOWN (LT WED/WED NGT)...MDL TEMP
PROFILES SUGGEST PSBL RA ENDING AS WET SN INLAND. HAVE NUDGED POPS
UP TO 70-80% E PORTION W...40-60% INLAND ON WED.

PCPN/MOIST THEN MOVES E OF THE AREA AND OFF THE CST LATER WED
WED NGT...WITH POPS DIMINISHING FM W TO E. A MAINLY DRY FRONT
SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO EARLY FRI MORNG. HI PRES WILL
THEN BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI THRU SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE L40S W AND M/U40S E WED...IN THE U40S TO L50S THU...IN THE
M/U40S FRI...AND RANGE THRU THE 40S SAT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LWR 40S WED MORNG...IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S THU AND
FRI MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S SAT MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY
FROM THE COAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
THIS IS PUSHING ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS AND
IT WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
INITIALLY...JUST SEEING SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...BUT SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SLIDING NORTH THROUGH THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TN RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT...THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP THE COAST
AND SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 6Z AND 9Z. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. ALSO
EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUST.

BEHIND THE FRONT...AFTER 9Z...THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
AND STILL BE GUSTY TO AROUND 15 KTS. BUT ONCE IN THE WARM
SECTOR...SHOULD SLOWLY SEE CEILINGS IMPROVE AND COULD POTENTIALLY
SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER 15Z...AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVING IN
AND MIXING HELP CEILINGS TO RISE.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS COMES ON WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE ALONG THE COAST SPREADING RAIN AND LOW
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST UPDATED WITH AN UPGRADE TO GALE WARNING OVR THE OCEAN.
DESPITE WARM AIR OVR COOL WATER TEMPS...WITH A STRONG PRES
GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT AND WEAK LO PRES
DEVELOPMENT OVR NRN VA...AND LATEST NAM12 PROGGING 925 MB WINDS
~75 KT...THINK THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW HRS OF WINDS AOA
34 KT OVR THE OCEAN TNGT. SEAS WILL REACH 6-8 FT. GUSTS MAY COME
CLOSE TO GALE FORCE OVR THE BAY AS WELL (AT LEAST AT ELEVATED
SITES) WHERE STRONG SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. ALSO
MAINTAINED THE SCA HEADLINES FOR THE OTHER WTRS. THE GALE WARNING
ENDS LATE MON MORNING...BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AS GUSTS COULD
CONTINUE IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE THRU THE AFTN HRS. THE SCA
HEADLINES ALL END DURING THE DAY MON AS WINDS DECREASE JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE WTRS LATE MON NGT/TUE MORNG.
IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS THEN INTO TUE WITH HI PRES OVR THE
AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ633-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632.
     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...ALB/TMG
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 231850
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
150 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE EAST
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HI PRES NOW OFF THE CST...WILL CONT TO SLO DRIFT E AWAY FM THE
CST THROUGH TDA. CLOUDS CONT TO THICKEN AND LWR FM THE SW AS GULF
COAST MOISTURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFT NE THROUGH THE SE
CONUS...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. XPCG MUCH OF THE DAY TO BE DRY...BUT SOME RAIN
SHOULD ARRIVE IN FAR SW PORTIONS OF LATE IN THE DAY. WILL CONT W/
INCRSG POPS TO 50-60% POPS SW LATE IN THE DAY...W/ RIBBON OF
30-40% POP FROM THE NW PIEDMONT THROUGH NE NC. HI TEMPS RANGING FM
THE M50S NW TO L60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WILL CROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TNGT. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE (PWTRS INCRSG TO 1.5 TO
2 IN 00-06Z/24 PER 00Z/23 GFS) WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DUE TO A
STRONG NEARLY 70KT LLJ. POPS FOR RAIN DURING THE 12HR PERIOD TNGT
WILL CONT AT 100%. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
COASTAL NE NC (NOT READY TO ADD TO OTHER AREAS - ESP ERN VA/LWR SE
MD BUT WOULDN`T RULE IT OUT)...AND SPC HAS OUTLINED THAT AREA
(CSTL NE NC) IN SLGT CHC SVR. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
6HR PRESSURE FALLS OF -6MB TO -10MB GFS WILL RESULT IN
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE COAST.
GUSTS FROM THE SSE DIRECTION OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. LO
TEMPS TNGT SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 50S...WITH READINGS LIKELY TO
RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG FORCING AND SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
SHOULD RESULT IN A ~6HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAIN TNGT...WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS AVERAGING 0.5 TO 0.75 IN
N/CNTRL AND 1.00-1.25 IN NR THE CST (AND NE NC).

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION BY 12Z/25...W/ A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE FAR WRN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUE. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING...WITH A GUSTY SW WIND
DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S (SEE THE
THE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS). WILL LIMIT ANY POPS TO FAR
ESE AREAS OF FA AS 00Z/23 NAM RMNS OUTLIER IN LINGERING MOISTURE
ACRS THOSE LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS XPCD INLAND...WITH PSBL CLOUDS LINGERING RIGHT ALG THE
COAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TUE. HIGHS TUE
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER MORNING
LOWS FROM THE MID 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z/23 RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF COMING MORE INTO LINE WRT PTNTL
LO PRES DEVELOPING ALG STALLED FNTL BNDRY NR THE SE CONUS CST LT
TUE/TUE NGT...THEN TRACKING NNE ALG THE CST WED INTO WED NGT. A
BUSY PD OF TRAVEL MIDWEEK INCRSLY LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY
RA...AND AS PTNTL CSTL STM WINDS DOWN (LT WED/WED NGT)...MDL TEMP
PROFILES SUGGEST PSBL RA ENDING AS WET SN INLAND. HAVE NUDGED POPS
UP TO 70-80% E PORTION W...40-60% INLAND ON WED.

PCPN/MOIST THEN MOVES E OF THE AREA AND OFF THE CST LATER WED
WED NGT...WITH POPS DIMINISHING FM W TO E. A MAINLY DRY FRONT
SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO EARLY FRI MORNG. HI PRES WILL
THEN BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI THRU SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE L40S W AND M/U40S E WED...IN THE U40S TO L50S THU...IN THE
M/U40S FRI...AND RANGE THRU THE 40S SAT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LWR 40S WED MORNG...IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S THU AND
FRI MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S SAT MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY
FROM THE COAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
THIS IS PUSHING ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS AND
IT WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
INITIALLY...JUST SEEING SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...BUT SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SLIDING NORTH THROUGH THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TN RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT...THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP THE COAST
AND SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 6Z AND 9Z. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. ALSO
EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUST.

BEHIND THE FRONT...AFTER 9Z...THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
AND STILL BE GUSTY TO AROUND 15 KTS. BUT ONCE IN THE WARM
SECTOR...SHOULD SLOWLY SEE CEILINGS IMPROVE AND COULD POTENTIALLY
SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER 15Z...AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVING IN
AND MIXING HELP CEILINGS TO RISE.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS COMES ON WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE ALONG THE COAST SPREADING RAIN AND LOW
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST UPDATED WITH AN UPGRADE TO GALE WARNING OVR THE OCEAN.
DESPITE WARM AIR OVR COOL WATER TEMPS...WITH A STRONG PRES
GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT AND WEAK LO PRES
DEVELOPMENT OVR NRN VA...AND LATEST NAM12 PROGGING 925 MB WINDS
~75 KT...THINK THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW HRS OF WINDS AOA
34 KT OVR THE OCEAN TNGT. SEAS WILL REACH 6-8 FT. GUSTS MAY COME
CLOSE TO GALE FORCE OVR THE BAY AS WELL (AT LEAST AT ELEVATED
SITES) WHERE STRONG SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. ALSO
MAINTAINED THE SCA HEADLINES FOR THE OTHER WTRS. THE GALE WARNING
ENDS LATE MON MORNING...BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AS GUSTS COULD
CONTINUE IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE THRU THE AFTN HRS. THE SCA
HEADLINES ALL END DURING THE DAY MON AS WINDS DECREASE JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE WTRS LATE MON NGT/TUE MORNG.
IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS THEN INTO TUE WITH HI PRES OVR THE
AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ633-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632.
     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...ALB/TMG
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 231724
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1224 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY INTO MONDAY. AS IT DOES, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT, THEN A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH
LATE MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR LATER TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM
WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND BY THANKSGIVING. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST IS RESULTING
IN A RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE EVIDENT ON THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER LOUISIANA. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS, A RIDGE IS
BUILDING ACROSS THE EAST.

THE PRESENT OF THIS RIDGE IS HELPING TO DEFLECT LINGERING WEAK LIFT
FARTHER NORTHWARD. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS SHIFTING WITH
TIME TODAY. THEREFORE THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD BAND IS LIFTING
NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES. THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF
CLOUDINESS WORKING NORTHWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA ZONES
AND INTO FAR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY, AND THIS IS CIRRUS FROM THE
DEVELOPING SYSTEM ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. OVERALL, CLOUDS
INCREASE AGAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BY EVENING.

WE REMAIN UNDER A WAA REGIME THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SOUTHERLY
FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMER AFTERNOON, AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
WERE INCREASED SOME ACROSS MANY AREAS. THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE
ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS. THIS INCLUDED A BIT
FASTER INCREASE IN THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD THE GRTLKS TONIGHT AND BRING
ITS ASSOCD WMFNT THRU ERLY AND A MARKED INCREASE IN SWLY FLOW.
THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
POTENT LLJ.  OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL NOT DROP MUCH IN RESPONSE
TO THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS AND THE SWLY WIND.   PRECIP CHCS
WILL INCREASE THRU THE NIGHT.  DURG THE EVE THE BEST CHCS WILL BE S
AND W WITH PRECIP EVERYWHERE AND HIGH POPS DURG THE OVERNIGHT AND
ERLY MRNG HOURS.  RAIN COULD BE HVY AT TIMES AND SOME THUNDER CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY S AND E.  QPF VALUES WILL GENLY BE
BETWEEN 1/2 AND 3/4 OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.  WITH
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE ALL OF THE PRECIP
THAT FALLS WILL BE IN THE LIQUID FORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BIG STORY IS THE WEDNESDAY COASTAL SYSTEM...BUT BEFORE WE GET
AHEAD OF OURSELVES, THERE ARE A FEW THINGS TO TALK ABOUT FOR
MONDAY.

HARD TO BELIEVE WE COULD GO FROM A RECORD LOW AT ALLENTOWN
YESTERDAY TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS JUST TWO DAYS LATER, BUT THAT IS
WHAT IS LOOKING LIKE IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. AS MENTIONED
IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION, THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY IN
THE DAY. ALSO, AFTER SUNRISE, THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ABOVE THE STABLE MARINE LAYER ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COASTS IN DE AND SOUTHERN NJ. THUS, CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF
THUNDER. RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS, WELL AHEAD OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT...MOVING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY
NIGHT. THEN TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES LOWER AS COMPARED TO MONDAY, BUT NEAR NORMALS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE PERIOD EVERYONE IS TALKING
ABOUT. STILL LOOKING AT A COASTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST EARLY ON WEDNESDAY THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST, AND WILL
BE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES MOST NOTABLY WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW,
THOUGH THE GAP IS CLOSING BETWEEN THE ECMWF TRACK (STILL THE
FURTHEST WEST) AND THE CMC TRACK (STILL THE FURTHEST EAST), WITH
THE GFS IN A COMFORTABLE MIDDLE GROUND. AS FAR AS PRECIP CHANCES,
IT LOOKS VERY LIKELY THAT AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF THE I95 CORRIDOR
WILL SEE PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR, THE CHANCE
IS LESS, THOUGH STILL QUITE HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS EVEN THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD GFS
SOLUTION SHOWS THE PRECIP EXTENDING WEST OF THE POCONOS.

PRECIP TYPE IS CONSIDERABLY MORE UNCERTAIN. THE ECMWF DEPICTS A
MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION,
PRODUCING A ROBUST WARM LAYER WHICH WOULD MEAN VERY FEW ICE
CRYSTALS ALOFT. HOWEVER, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE POCONOS, THE ECMWF KEEPS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING, SO JUST A COLD RAIN FOR MOST OF THE REGION WHILE THERE
IS A SLIM CHANCE OF FREEZING PRECIP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
POCONOS. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND, HAS THE JET, AND CONSEQUENTLY
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE OCEAN, RESULTING IN EITHER
ALL RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH ALL SNOW
POSSIBLE IN THE POCONOS. WITH EITHER SOLUTION, THE CHANCES OF
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THE DAY SEEM SMALL (WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE POCONOS).

WHAT COULD BE THE BIGGER ISSUE IS IF OR HOW LONG THE PRECIP LINGERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HAS PRECIP
RAPIDLY MOVING OUT BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS
SOLUTION, WHILE MUCH OF THE REGION COULD SEE A PERIOD OF ALL SNOW
AFTER SUNSET, THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
WOULD BE BRIEF. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND, LINGERS PRECIP IN THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, BUT KEEPS THE EASTERN HALF THE
REGION ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALL THAT TO SAY THAT
WHILE PRECIPITATION LOOKS VERY LIKELY IN THE WEDNESDAY TO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD, THE CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING
SNOW FOR MOST OF THE REGION IS QUITE SMALL.

ONCE THE PRECIP CLEARS OUT, THANKSGIVING LOOKS TO BE PLEASANT,
ALBEIT CHILLY WITH HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IN THE
WAKE OF THE COASTAL LOW, A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS SETTLES IN
OVER THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK KEEPING HIGHS IN THE
30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR, WITH CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 10,000 FEET.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS, BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY
TOWARD EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR TO START, THEN CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY LOWER
TO MVFR AND IFR /LOCAL LIFR/ AS A WARM FRONT ARRIVES. A PERIOD OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES. THIS WILL ALSO REDUCE THE VISIBILITIES, WITH EVEN SOME FOG
POSSIBLE LATE ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST AND FROM NEAR KABE ON
NORTHWARD. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO
NEAR 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND COULD BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES. THE
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE FROM NEAR THE KPHL METRO ON SOUTH AND
EAST. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE SOUTH AND
EAST OF KPHL. A POTENT LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE AREA, AND
THEREFORE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WAS INCLUDED FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...IFR /LOCAL LIFR/ CEILINGS FOR AWHILE IN THE MORNING, THEN
CEILINGS SHOULD RISE TO MVFR AND THEN PERHAPS VFR IN THE AFTERNOON
AS A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS IS IN PLACE. IT IS POSSIBLE THOUGH THAT
SOME LOW CLOUDS LINGER LONGER ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. RAIN
DEPARTS EARLY, HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS.
THE CORE OF LOW-LEVEL JET SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY,
THEREFORE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY BRING MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO RA (POSSIBLY RASN AT TIMES) FOR
THE REGION. IN ADDITION, EXPECT PERSISTENT NORTHERLY OR
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS FOR GENERALLY THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS CONTINUE. IN ADDITION, IF
PRECIPITATION LINGERS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT, COULD SEE -SN AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES BECAUSE OF IT.

THANKSGIVING...CONDITIONS SLOWLY RETURN TO VFR AND WINDS SHIFT TO
WESTERLY.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVG FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE GRTLKS. THE ASSOCD WMFNT
WILL MOVE THRU TONIGHT AND RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE WATERS
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...GALE CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR GENERALLY THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY. THEN WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE
BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE IN THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY
ABOVE SCA CRITERIA.

THANKSGIVING...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW SCA
CRITERIA EARLY IN THE DAY AND REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO THE
REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS BELOW FOR OUR FOUR
PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING UNBROKEN PERIOD OF
RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL SNOWFALL DATA.

DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS:

NOVEMBER 26TH:               NOVEMBER 27TH:       PERIOD OF RECORD:

ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955    1.2 INCHES 1978            1874

PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898         6.9 INCHES 1949,1938       1872

ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950         4.5 INCHES 1978            1894

ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925         7.0 INCHES 1938            1922

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...GORSE/JOHNSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...DRAG/KLINE





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231637 CCA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1136 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF
A MONDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
OTRW EXP MAINLY DRY WEA IS EXPD TDA IN BETWEEN SHRTWVS. THE NXT
SHRTWV IN SW FLOW WL ADVN ACRS THE OH VLY AND GT LKS RGN LT TDA
INTO TNGT. WITH AMPLE DEEP MSTR...UPR SPPRT...AND LLVL JET EXP
WIDESPREAD RAIN. MRNG RAOBS SPPRT HIGHS IN THE 50S N...TO MID 60S
TWD MGW. LTL TEMP DCR IS EXPD TNGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BROAD UPR TROFG AND A DEEPENING SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO
THE UPR GT LKS MON. THE LOWS ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS PROGGED FOR A MON
AFTN PASSAGE ACRS OUR RGN. MSTR IS LTD SO MAINTAINED CHC POPS WITH
FROPA. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ARND THE DEEPENING LOW SHOULD
BRING GUSTY SFC WNDS AS MXG BEGINS MON. GUSTS ARND 40 MPH ARE
LIKELY...AND A FEW HIGHER GUSTS ARE PSBL IF DEEP MXG OCCURS.

COLD ADVCTN KICKS IN AFT FROPA AS BROAD UPR TROFG RMNS ACRS THE GT
LKS AND UPR MIDWEST. STRATOCU IS EXPD...THOUGH SNW SHWR CHCS WL BE
MINIMAL WITH A SW BNDRY LYR FLOW PREVENTING ANY LK CONNECTIONS OR
SGFNT UPSLOPE COMPONENT.

TEMPS ARE EXPD TO RCH 10-15 DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS MON...BUT WL DCR
TO ARND 10 DEG BLO AVG BY TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS TOWARD THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY...A STRONG
SOUTHEAST COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MATURE QUICKLY AND MOVE NORTH
OR NORTHEAST ALONG THE EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE. MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE STRONGLY IN THIS PERIOD. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A MAJOR STORM
INSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...WHILE THE GFS IS QUICKER...WITH AN
OPEN WAVE GOING OUT TO SEA AND FAILING TO LATCH ONTO THE STRONG
THERMAL GRADIENT. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM COULD HAVE
MAJOR IMPLICATIONS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TRAVEL TO AND
FROM THE EAST COAST...ESPECIALLY THE INTERIOR AIRPORTS AND HIGHWAYS
WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE SIGNIFICANT IF STRONGER MODEL
SOLUTIONS VERIFY.

DO NOT EXPECT ANY IMPACTS ACROSS THE LOCAL CWA...BUT GIVEN THE HIGH
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS POTENTIAL STORM...FOLKS TRAVELING TO
OR FROM THE EAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR FORECASTS.

OTHERWISE...A PERIOD OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
FOR TUESDAY AND CONTINUE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK...INCLUDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. PRESENTLY DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A PROGRESSIVE
CLIPPER-LIKE WAVE COULD BRING A BRIEF BOUT OF SNOW TO THE REGION
THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY.

BOOKBINDER

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH LIGHT SRLY SFC WINDS. AS A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED WITH INCREASING SERLY FLOW. EXPECTING MVFR RESTRICTIONS
LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH WARM FRONT RAIN...SOME DROPS TO
IFR ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR THE NRN TERMINALS. GUSTY SRLY WINDS
EXPECTED TO THEN PERSIST INTO MON.
TAX

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231631
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1131 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF
A MONDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
OTRW EXP MAINLY DRY WEA IS EXPD TDA IN BETWEEN SHRTWVS. THE NXT
SHRTWV IN SW FLOW WL ADVN ACRS THE OH VLY AND GT LKS RGN LT TDA
INTO TNGT. WITH AMPLE DEEP MSTR...UPR SPPRT...AND LLVL JET EXP
WIDESPREAD RAIN. MRNG RAOBS SPPRT HIGHS IN THE 50S...TO LWR 60S
TWD MGW. LTL TEMP DCR IS EXPD TNGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BROAD UPR TROFG AND A DEEPENING SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO
THE UPR GT LKS MON. THE LOWS ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS PROGGED FOR A MON
AFTN PASSAGE ACRS OUR RGN. MSTR IS LTD SO MAINTAINED CHC POPS WITH
FROPA. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ARND THE DEEPENING LOW SHOULD
BRING GUSTY SFC WNDS AS MXG BEGINS MON. GUSTS ARND 40 MPH ARE
LIKELY...AND A FEW HIGHER GUSTS ARE PSBL IF DEEP MXG OCCURS.

COLD ADVCTN KICKS IN AFT FROPA AS BROAD UPR TROFG RMNS ACRS THE GT
LKS AND UPR MIDWEST. STRATOCU IS EXPD...THOUGH SNW SHWR CHCS WL BE
MINIMAL WITH A SW BNDRY LYR FLOW PREVENTING ANY LK CONNECTIONS OR
SGFNT UPSLOPE COMPONENT.

TEMPS ARE EXPD TO RCH 10-15 DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS MON...BUT WL DCR
TO ARND 10 DEG BLO AVG BY TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS TOWARD THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY...A STRONG
SOUTHEAST COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MATURE QUICKLY AND MOVE NORTH
OR NORTHEAST ALONG THE EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE. MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE STRONGLY IN THIS PERIOD. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A MAJOR STORM
INSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...WHILE THE GFS IS QUICKER...WITH AN
OPEN WAVE GOING OUT TO SEA AND FAILING TO LATCH ONTO THE STRONG
THERMAL GRADIENT. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM COULD HAVE
MAJOR IMPLICATIONS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TRAVEL TO AND
FROM THE EAST COAST...ESPECIALLY THE INTERIOR AIRPORTS AND HIGHWAYS
WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE SIGNIFICANT IF STRONGER MODEL
SOLUTIONS VERIFY.

DO NOT EXPECT ANY IMPACTS ACROSS THE LOCAL CWA...BUT GIVEN THE HIGH
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS POTENTIAL STORM...FOLKS TRAVELING TO
OR FROM THE EAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR FORECASTS.

OTHERWISE...A PERIOD OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
FOR TUESDAY AND CONTINUE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK...INCLUDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. PRESENTLY DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A PROGRESSIVE
CLIPPER-LIKE WAVE COULD BRING A BRIEF BOUT OF SNOW TO THE REGION
THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY.

BOOKBINDER

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH LIGHT SRLY SFC WINDS. AS A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED WITH INCREASING SERLY FLOW. EXPECTING MVFR RESTRICTIONS
LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH WARM FRONT RAIN...SOME DROPS TO
IFR ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR THE NRN TERMINALS. GUSTY SRLY WINDS
EXPECTED TO THEN PERSIST INTO MON.
TAX

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231631
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1131 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF
A MONDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
OTRW EXP MAINLY DRY WEA IS EXPD TDA IN BETWEEN SHRTWVS. THE NXT
SHRTWV IN SW FLOW WL ADVN ACRS THE OH VLY AND GT LKS RGN LT TDA
INTO TNGT. WITH AMPLE DEEP MSTR...UPR SPPRT...AND LLVL JET EXP
WIDESPREAD RAIN. MRNG RAOBS SPPRT HIGHS IN THE 50S...TO LWR 60S
TWD MGW. LTL TEMP DCR IS EXPD TNGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BROAD UPR TROFG AND A DEEPENING SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO
THE UPR GT LKS MON. THE LOWS ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS PROGGED FOR A MON
AFTN PASSAGE ACRS OUR RGN. MSTR IS LTD SO MAINTAINED CHC POPS WITH
FROPA. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ARND THE DEEPENING LOW SHOULD
BRING GUSTY SFC WNDS AS MXG BEGINS MON. GUSTS ARND 40 MPH ARE
LIKELY...AND A FEW HIGHER GUSTS ARE PSBL IF DEEP MXG OCCURS.

COLD ADVCTN KICKS IN AFT FROPA AS BROAD UPR TROFG RMNS ACRS THE GT
LKS AND UPR MIDWEST. STRATOCU IS EXPD...THOUGH SNW SHWR CHCS WL BE
MINIMAL WITH A SW BNDRY LYR FLOW PREVENTING ANY LK CONNECTIONS OR
SGFNT UPSLOPE COMPONENT.

TEMPS ARE EXPD TO RCH 10-15 DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS MON...BUT WL DCR
TO ARND 10 DEG BLO AVG BY TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS TOWARD THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY...A STRONG
SOUTHEAST COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MATURE QUICKLY AND MOVE NORTH
OR NORTHEAST ALONG THE EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE. MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE STRONGLY IN THIS PERIOD. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A MAJOR STORM
INSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...WHILE THE GFS IS QUICKER...WITH AN
OPEN WAVE GOING OUT TO SEA AND FAILING TO LATCH ONTO THE STRONG
THERMAL GRADIENT. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM COULD HAVE
MAJOR IMPLICATIONS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TRAVEL TO AND
FROM THE EAST COAST...ESPECIALLY THE INTERIOR AIRPORTS AND HIGHWAYS
WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE SIGNIFICANT IF STRONGER MODEL
SOLUTIONS VERIFY.

DO NOT EXPECT ANY IMPACTS ACROSS THE LOCAL CWA...BUT GIVEN THE HIGH
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS POTENTIAL STORM...FOLKS TRAVELING TO
OR FROM THE EAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR FORECASTS.

OTHERWISE...A PERIOD OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
FOR TUESDAY AND CONTINUE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK...INCLUDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. PRESENTLY DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A PROGRESSIVE
CLIPPER-LIKE WAVE COULD BRING A BRIEF BOUT OF SNOW TO THE REGION
THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY.

BOOKBINDER

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH LIGHT SRLY SFC WINDS. AS A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED WITH INCREASING SERLY FLOW. EXPECTING MVFR RESTRICTIONS
LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH WARM FRONT RAIN...SOME DROPS TO
IFR ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR THE NRN TERMINALS. GUSTY SRLY WINDS
EXPECTED TO THEN PERSIST INTO MON.
TAX

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231631
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1131 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF
A MONDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
OTRW EXP MAINLY DRY WEA IS EXPD TDA IN BETWEEN SHRTWVS. THE NXT
SHRTWV IN SW FLOW WL ADVN ACRS THE OH VLY AND GT LKS RGN LT TDA
INTO TNGT. WITH AMPLE DEEP MSTR...UPR SPPRT...AND LLVL JET EXP
WIDESPREAD RAIN. MRNG RAOBS SPPRT HIGHS IN THE 50S...TO LWR 60S
TWD MGW. LTL TEMP DCR IS EXPD TNGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BROAD UPR TROFG AND A DEEPENING SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO
THE UPR GT LKS MON. THE LOWS ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS PROGGED FOR A MON
AFTN PASSAGE ACRS OUR RGN. MSTR IS LTD SO MAINTAINED CHC POPS WITH
FROPA. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ARND THE DEEPENING LOW SHOULD
BRING GUSTY SFC WNDS AS MXG BEGINS MON. GUSTS ARND 40 MPH ARE
LIKELY...AND A FEW HIGHER GUSTS ARE PSBL IF DEEP MXG OCCURS.

COLD ADVCTN KICKS IN AFT FROPA AS BROAD UPR TROFG RMNS ACRS THE GT
LKS AND UPR MIDWEST. STRATOCU IS EXPD...THOUGH SNW SHWR CHCS WL BE
MINIMAL WITH A SW BNDRY LYR FLOW PREVENTING ANY LK CONNECTIONS OR
SGFNT UPSLOPE COMPONENT.

TEMPS ARE EXPD TO RCH 10-15 DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS MON...BUT WL DCR
TO ARND 10 DEG BLO AVG BY TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS TOWARD THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY...A STRONG
SOUTHEAST COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MATURE QUICKLY AND MOVE NORTH
OR NORTHEAST ALONG THE EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE. MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE STRONGLY IN THIS PERIOD. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A MAJOR STORM
INSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...WHILE THE GFS IS QUICKER...WITH AN
OPEN WAVE GOING OUT TO SEA AND FAILING TO LATCH ONTO THE STRONG
THERMAL GRADIENT. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM COULD HAVE
MAJOR IMPLICATIONS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TRAVEL TO AND
FROM THE EAST COAST...ESPECIALLY THE INTERIOR AIRPORTS AND HIGHWAYS
WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE SIGNIFICANT IF STRONGER MODEL
SOLUTIONS VERIFY.

DO NOT EXPECT ANY IMPACTS ACROSS THE LOCAL CWA...BUT GIVEN THE HIGH
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS POTENTIAL STORM...FOLKS TRAVELING TO
OR FROM THE EAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR FORECASTS.

OTHERWISE...A PERIOD OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
FOR TUESDAY AND CONTINUE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK...INCLUDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. PRESENTLY DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A PROGRESSIVE
CLIPPER-LIKE WAVE COULD BRING A BRIEF BOUT OF SNOW TO THE REGION
THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY.

BOOKBINDER

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH LIGHT SRLY SFC WINDS. AS A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED WITH INCREASING SERLY FLOW. EXPECTING MVFR RESTRICTIONS
LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH WARM FRONT RAIN...SOME DROPS TO
IFR ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR THE NRN TERMINALS. GUSTY SRLY WINDS
EXPECTED TO THEN PERSIST INTO MON.
TAX

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231631
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1131 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF
A MONDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
OTRW EXP MAINLY DRY WEA IS EXPD TDA IN BETWEEN SHRTWVS. THE NXT
SHRTWV IN SW FLOW WL ADVN ACRS THE OH VLY AND GT LKS RGN LT TDA
INTO TNGT. WITH AMPLE DEEP MSTR...UPR SPPRT...AND LLVL JET EXP
WIDESPREAD RAIN. MRNG RAOBS SPPRT HIGHS IN THE 50S...TO LWR 60S
TWD MGW. LTL TEMP DCR IS EXPD TNGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BROAD UPR TROFG AND A DEEPENING SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO
THE UPR GT LKS MON. THE LOWS ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS PROGGED FOR A MON
AFTN PASSAGE ACRS OUR RGN. MSTR IS LTD SO MAINTAINED CHC POPS WITH
FROPA. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ARND THE DEEPENING LOW SHOULD
BRING GUSTY SFC WNDS AS MXG BEGINS MON. GUSTS ARND 40 MPH ARE
LIKELY...AND A FEW HIGHER GUSTS ARE PSBL IF DEEP MXG OCCURS.

COLD ADVCTN KICKS IN AFT FROPA AS BROAD UPR TROFG RMNS ACRS THE GT
LKS AND UPR MIDWEST. STRATOCU IS EXPD...THOUGH SNW SHWR CHCS WL BE
MINIMAL WITH A SW BNDRY LYR FLOW PREVENTING ANY LK CONNECTIONS OR
SGFNT UPSLOPE COMPONENT.

TEMPS ARE EXPD TO RCH 10-15 DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS MON...BUT WL DCR
TO ARND 10 DEG BLO AVG BY TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS TOWARD THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY...A STRONG
SOUTHEAST COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MATURE QUICKLY AND MOVE NORTH
OR NORTHEAST ALONG THE EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE. MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE STRONGLY IN THIS PERIOD. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A MAJOR STORM
INSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...WHILE THE GFS IS QUICKER...WITH AN
OPEN WAVE GOING OUT TO SEA AND FAILING TO LATCH ONTO THE STRONG
THERMAL GRADIENT. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM COULD HAVE
MAJOR IMPLICATIONS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TRAVEL TO AND
FROM THE EAST COAST...ESPECIALLY THE INTERIOR AIRPORTS AND HIGHWAYS
WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE SIGNIFICANT IF STRONGER MODEL
SOLUTIONS VERIFY.

DO NOT EXPECT ANY IMPACTS ACROSS THE LOCAL CWA...BUT GIVEN THE HIGH
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS POTENTIAL STORM...FOLKS TRAVELING TO
OR FROM THE EAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR FORECASTS.

OTHERWISE...A PERIOD OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
FOR TUESDAY AND CONTINUE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK...INCLUDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. PRESENTLY DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A PROGRESSIVE
CLIPPER-LIKE WAVE COULD BRING A BRIEF BOUT OF SNOW TO THE REGION
THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY.

BOOKBINDER

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH LIGHT SRLY SFC WINDS. AS A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED WITH INCREASING SERLY FLOW. EXPECTING MVFR RESTRICTIONS
LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH WARM FRONT RAIN...SOME DROPS TO
IFR ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR THE NRN TERMINALS. GUSTY SRLY WINDS
EXPECTED TO THEN PERSIST INTO MON.
TAX

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KLWX 231507
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1007 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OFFSHORE.
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFYING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

THE AREA OF HIGH PRES OFF NERN N CAROLINA HAS DONE A VALIANT JOB
OF HOLDING THE AREA OF RA AT BAY AS IT ATTEMPTS TO PROGRESS N.
BUT THE HIGH WL BE MOVG OUT TO SEA...AND MID ATLC CAN EXPECT TO
SEE INCRSG CLDS THIS AFTN. A FAIRLY COMFORTABLE LATE NOV AFTN -
HIGHS XPCTD TO REACH THE M50S OVR MUCH OF THE AREA.

IT IS INTERESTING TO LOOK AT THE PWATS FM THE 12Z IAD SNDGS OVR
THE PAST 3 DAYS: FRI 0.11" SAT 0.17" SUN 0.57". AFTR THE COLD MRNG
FRI 24 HR TEMP CHGS OF THE ATOMOSPHERE HV SHOWN LARGE INCREASES
THE PAST 2 MRNGS.

THERE ARE TWO RGNS OF S/WV ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM... ONE MVG
ONSHORE INVOF NWRN FL AND A HEALTHY VORT EMERGING INTO THE GLFMEX
FM CSTL TX. AS THESE S/WVS LIFT/DIG...H5 FLOW PTTN WL BECOME MORE
AMPLIFIED. THAT WL ALLOW A WMFNT TO APPRCH THE CWFA TDA.

FOR THE FIRST PD...AM CONFINING LKLY POPS TO SWRN CWFA...GNLY SHD
SWD. GFS/ECMWF HV A BETTER HANDLE THAN NAM ON EVOLUTION... AS
EVIDENCED BY COOL BIAS IN YDA FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

WMFNT WL LIFT ACRS CWFA TNGT...AIDED BY 60-70 KT LLJ BRINGING PWAT
VALUES UP TO ARND 1.5 IN. THUS...CAT POPS AREAWIDE FOR MOST OF THE
NGT...REACHING METRO BALT BY MID EVNG AND ENDING IN THE MTNS
PRE-DAWN. AM XPCTG A PD OF MDT RAFL IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS
TIMEFRAME...SPCLY FOR THE BLURDG EWD...WHICH WL HV THE ASSISTANCE OF
THE RDG LINE FOR ENHANCED LIFT. STORM TTL QPF BTWN 0.50-1.00 INCH...
BUT LOCALLY HIER CERTAINLY PSBL. CANT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
EITHER GIVEN SHEAR AND MODEST INSTBY /BEST LI SUBZERO SRN MD
06-09Z/. HV CONFINED SCHC SE OF I-95 FOR JUST A CPL HRS AFTR
MIDNGT.

THE WNDS WL CAUSE ANOTHER ISSUE FOR THE HILLS...AS THE JET MAY BE
DOWN AS LOW AS 1500-2000 FT. HWVR...MIXING SHUD BE RATHER POOR.
CONFIDENCE IN POSITION/HGT/STRENGTH FOR THE JET PRECLUDE AN ADVY
ATTM...HWVR THE THREAT ADEQUATE ENUF TO JUSTIFY INCLUSION IN HWO.

THE WMFNT SHUD LIFT N OF CWFA BY DAYBREAK...TAKING ANY PCPN ACRS THE
DELMARVA. HV KEPT A CHC OF PCPN INTO MID-MRNG TO ACCT FOR ANY TIMING
DIFFS. OTRW...THERE/S NOT A LOT OF FORCING FOR SVRL HRS TIL THE
ATTENDENT CDFNT ARRIVES. THEREFORE...HV WHITTLED OUT A BREEZY BUT
DRY PD DURING THE MIDDAY. EVEN WHEN THE CDFNT DOES MAKE IT HERE
/LATE DAY/...THERES BAROCLINICITY BUT VIRTUALLY NO ULVL FORCING. AM
KEEPING ACCOMPANYING POPS IN THE 20-30 PCT RANGE.

H8 TEMPS PEAK ARND 14C AT 12Z MON MRNG. THEREFORE...WUDNT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE MIN-T BE LESS THAN DIURNAL. HV TAKEN THE WARMER END
OF MOS TO COMPOSE MIN-T GRID...MID 40S TO LWR 50S. HV SIDED
SIMILARLY WARM FOR MAXT MON. TEMPS 70+ SHUD PREVAIL E OF THE BLURDG
MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

A COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY SWING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...
USHERING IN A DRYING WEST WIND...BUT STILL SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS...
PROBABLY MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN GIVEN THE WARM STARTING
CONDITIONS. IF THE UPSLOPE OPPORTUNITY LINGERS LATER INTO THE
NIGHT...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DESPITE A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT REBOUND MUCH ON
TUESDAY...REACHING JUST THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. THE ALLEGHENY FRONT
REMAINS IN THE 30S ALL DAY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...EVERY
DAY AFTER TUESDAY THIS WEEK WILL BE EVEN COLDER.

THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL GET HELD UP
IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY A STRONG UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SFC
HIGH. MODELS THEN INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
FRONT AS UPPER ENERGY DIGS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.

FROM THERE...UNCERTAINTY RAPIDLY INCREASES. DEPENDING ON HOW
CLOSE THE LOW IS TO THE COAST...PART OR ALL OF THE AREA WILL SEE
PRECIPITATION SPREAD IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AND OF COURSE...SFC TEMPS ARE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING
PART OF THE TIME...AND POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS ALOFT RUN A WIDE RANGE.
THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES ON TOP OF ALL OF THAT TOO. WPC
NOTES...AS DO WE...THAT THE DIFFERENCES HAVE A LINK TO AN UPSTREAM
CLIPPER SYSTEM AND HOW IT PLAYS INTO THE MOTION/EVOLUTION OF THE
COASTAL STORM. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT ALL SOLUTIONS ARE STILL ON
THE TABLE...FROM NOT MUCH OF ANYTHING TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE
CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GENERIC RAIN-OR-SNOW MENTION BUT WITH
INCREASED POPS. LATER TODAY...OUR PROBABILISTIC SNOW FORECASTS
WILL GO THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME...SO WE WILL AT LEAST HAVE A
GOALPOST AND PROBABILISTIC REFERENCES OF CERTAINTY THEN.

THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PULL AWAY...LEAVING A SMALL CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WESTERLIES BEHIND THE
SYSTEM WILL FAVOR UPSLOPE SNOW ON THE ALLEGHENY FRONT FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY...BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTIES KEEP
THINGS TRICKY ELSEWHERE. IF UPPER ENERGY DIGS FURTHER SOUTH...A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS /PROBABLY RAIN GIVEN A BIT OF A WARMUP/ WOULD BE
POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WITH THE CLIPPER PASSAGE.

AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS IN AND THINGS ARE
QUIET...BUT COLD...FOR THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE HINTS AT YET ANOTHER CLIPPER FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY. FOR NOW...I DID NOT PUT ANY PRECIP EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT...BUT I DID BRING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW OUT WEST.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S AND 40S...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

VFR CONDS ACRS TERMINALS TDA. PCPN /LGT-MDT RA/ SHUD ENVELOP AREA BY
LT AFTN/EVE PUSH...PROGRESSING FM SW TO NE-- 21-23Z CHO TO 02-04Z
BWI/MTN. FLGT CONDS SHUD RAPIDLY DECLINE THRU MVFR TO IFR. XPCT IFR
CONDS OVNGT INTO THE BGNG OF MON MRNG PUSH...BEFORE GRDL IMPRVMNT
COMES. VFR SHUD RTN BY NOON MON.

WNDS WL ALSO BE A CONCERN...AS A 60-70 KT LOW LVL JET WL RESIDE AS
LOW AS 2K FT. THESE CONDS SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER LLWS MENTION FOR ALL
TAFS ELY MON MRNG. THINK SHEAR SHUD LESSEN BY SUNRISE MON. HWVR...
15-20 KT SUSTAINED SSWLY WNDS WL REMAIN THRU MOST OF DAY MON BEFORE
VEERING LT IN THE DAY.

WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHERLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE UP/OFF THE COAST ON
WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE IT IS...WINDS COULD STRENGTHEN.
GOOD CHANCE OF -RA AND/OR -SN WEDNESDAY. IF SNOW FALLS...LOW
CIGS/VSBY WOULD RESULT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY THURSDAY TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

NO PROBS ON WATERS ATTM. THE P-GRAD WL INCREASE SUN AFTN AS A
WMFNT APPROACHES. HV EXPANDED SCA FOR THE EVNG HRS TO INCL MOST OF
THE BAY. A 60-70 LLJ WL PASS OVER WATERS LT AT NGT. HWVR MIXING WL
BE POOR...ASSISTED BY 50+ DEGF AIR TEMPS OVER WATER TEMPS IN THE
LWR- MID 40S. HV CAPPED WINDS AT 30 KT...HOLDING OFF GLW MENTION.
DAYSHIFT WL BE GIVING THIS MORE ATTN...AS THERE WL BE A LOT OF WND
NOT FAR OFF THE WATERS EDGE.

THE JET...AND THE WMFNT...WL PASS N OF THE WATERS MON MRNG BUT WNDS
WL INCR AGN MON AFTN AS THE CDFNT APPROACHES. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
LULL /RELATIVELY SPEAKING/...BUT THE GRADIENT WL SUPPORT 20-25 KT
WINDS MON AFTN. HV XTNDD SCA FOR ALL WATERS INTO MON.

LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING
ON TRACK OF LOW UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...SOME GUSTS TO SCA LEVEL
ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER MARYLAND BAY...ON WEDNESDAY.
MORE SCA-LEVEL GUSTS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BEHIND A
CLIPPER SYSTEM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WINDS ON THE MID CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 MPH BY SUN
NIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE TEMP CONTRAST BETWEEN THE AIR AND
WATER...MUCH BETTER WINDS WILL BE CONFINED ALOFT. EVEN THE TYPICALLY
AGGRESSIVE CBOFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE WL BE NO WATER LVL
RISE WITH TIDES TODAY OR TONIGHT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OF
COURSE...BUT EVEN IF THERE WERE MODEL ERRORS STILL DO NOT ANTICIPATE
ANY ISSUES.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ531>534-536-537-539>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ530-535-538.

&&

$$
UPDATE..WOODY!
PRVS...HTS/JCE









000
FXUS61 KLWX 231507
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1007 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OFFSHORE.
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFYING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

THE AREA OF HIGH PRES OFF NERN N CAROLINA HAS DONE A VALIANT JOB
OF HOLDING THE AREA OF RA AT BAY AS IT ATTEMPTS TO PROGRESS N.
BUT THE HIGH WL BE MOVG OUT TO SEA...AND MID ATLC CAN EXPECT TO
SEE INCRSG CLDS THIS AFTN. A FAIRLY COMFORTABLE LATE NOV AFTN -
HIGHS XPCTD TO REACH THE M50S OVR MUCH OF THE AREA.

IT IS INTERESTING TO LOOK AT THE PWATS FM THE 12Z IAD SNDGS OVR
THE PAST 3 DAYS: FRI 0.11" SAT 0.17" SUN 0.57". AFTR THE COLD MRNG
FRI 24 HR TEMP CHGS OF THE ATOMOSPHERE HV SHOWN LARGE INCREASES
THE PAST 2 MRNGS.

THERE ARE TWO RGNS OF S/WV ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM... ONE MVG
ONSHORE INVOF NWRN FL AND A HEALTHY VORT EMERGING INTO THE GLFMEX
FM CSTL TX. AS THESE S/WVS LIFT/DIG...H5 FLOW PTTN WL BECOME MORE
AMPLIFIED. THAT WL ALLOW A WMFNT TO APPRCH THE CWFA TDA.

FOR THE FIRST PD...AM CONFINING LKLY POPS TO SWRN CWFA...GNLY SHD
SWD. GFS/ECMWF HV A BETTER HANDLE THAN NAM ON EVOLUTION... AS
EVIDENCED BY COOL BIAS IN YDA FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

WMFNT WL LIFT ACRS CWFA TNGT...AIDED BY 60-70 KT LLJ BRINGING PWAT
VALUES UP TO ARND 1.5 IN. THUS...CAT POPS AREAWIDE FOR MOST OF THE
NGT...REACHING METRO BALT BY MID EVNG AND ENDING IN THE MTNS
PRE-DAWN. AM XPCTG A PD OF MDT RAFL IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS
TIMEFRAME...SPCLY FOR THE BLURDG EWD...WHICH WL HV THE ASSISTANCE OF
THE RDG LINE FOR ENHANCED LIFT. STORM TTL QPF BTWN 0.50-1.00 INCH...
BUT LOCALLY HIER CERTAINLY PSBL. CANT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
EITHER GIVEN SHEAR AND MODEST INSTBY /BEST LI SUBZERO SRN MD
06-09Z/. HV CONFINED SCHC SE OF I-95 FOR JUST A CPL HRS AFTR
MIDNGT.

THE WNDS WL CAUSE ANOTHER ISSUE FOR THE HILLS...AS THE JET MAY BE
DOWN AS LOW AS 1500-2000 FT. HWVR...MIXING SHUD BE RATHER POOR.
CONFIDENCE IN POSITION/HGT/STRENGTH FOR THE JET PRECLUDE AN ADVY
ATTM...HWVR THE THREAT ADEQUATE ENUF TO JUSTIFY INCLUSION IN HWO.

THE WMFNT SHUD LIFT N OF CWFA BY DAYBREAK...TAKING ANY PCPN ACRS THE
DELMARVA. HV KEPT A CHC OF PCPN INTO MID-MRNG TO ACCT FOR ANY TIMING
DIFFS. OTRW...THERE/S NOT A LOT OF FORCING FOR SVRL HRS TIL THE
ATTENDENT CDFNT ARRIVES. THEREFORE...HV WHITTLED OUT A BREEZY BUT
DRY PD DURING THE MIDDAY. EVEN WHEN THE CDFNT DOES MAKE IT HERE
/LATE DAY/...THERES BAROCLINICITY BUT VIRTUALLY NO ULVL FORCING. AM
KEEPING ACCOMPANYING POPS IN THE 20-30 PCT RANGE.

H8 TEMPS PEAK ARND 14C AT 12Z MON MRNG. THEREFORE...WUDNT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE MIN-T BE LESS THAN DIURNAL. HV TAKEN THE WARMER END
OF MOS TO COMPOSE MIN-T GRID...MID 40S TO LWR 50S. HV SIDED
SIMILARLY WARM FOR MAXT MON. TEMPS 70+ SHUD PREVAIL E OF THE BLURDG
MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

A COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY SWING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...
USHERING IN A DRYING WEST WIND...BUT STILL SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS...
PROBABLY MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN GIVEN THE WARM STARTING
CONDITIONS. IF THE UPSLOPE OPPORTUNITY LINGERS LATER INTO THE
NIGHT...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DESPITE A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT REBOUND MUCH ON
TUESDAY...REACHING JUST THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. THE ALLEGHENY FRONT
REMAINS IN THE 30S ALL DAY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...EVERY
DAY AFTER TUESDAY THIS WEEK WILL BE EVEN COLDER.

THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL GET HELD UP
IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY A STRONG UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SFC
HIGH. MODELS THEN INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
FRONT AS UPPER ENERGY DIGS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.

FROM THERE...UNCERTAINTY RAPIDLY INCREASES. DEPENDING ON HOW
CLOSE THE LOW IS TO THE COAST...PART OR ALL OF THE AREA WILL SEE
PRECIPITATION SPREAD IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AND OF COURSE...SFC TEMPS ARE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING
PART OF THE TIME...AND POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS ALOFT RUN A WIDE RANGE.
THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES ON TOP OF ALL OF THAT TOO. WPC
NOTES...AS DO WE...THAT THE DIFFERENCES HAVE A LINK TO AN UPSTREAM
CLIPPER SYSTEM AND HOW IT PLAYS INTO THE MOTION/EVOLUTION OF THE
COASTAL STORM. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT ALL SOLUTIONS ARE STILL ON
THE TABLE...FROM NOT MUCH OF ANYTHING TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE
CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GENERIC RAIN-OR-SNOW MENTION BUT WITH
INCREASED POPS. LATER TODAY...OUR PROBABILISTIC SNOW FORECASTS
WILL GO THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME...SO WE WILL AT LEAST HAVE A
GOALPOST AND PROBABILISTIC REFERENCES OF CERTAINTY THEN.

THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PULL AWAY...LEAVING A SMALL CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WESTERLIES BEHIND THE
SYSTEM WILL FAVOR UPSLOPE SNOW ON THE ALLEGHENY FRONT FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY...BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTIES KEEP
THINGS TRICKY ELSEWHERE. IF UPPER ENERGY DIGS FURTHER SOUTH...A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS /PROBABLY RAIN GIVEN A BIT OF A WARMUP/ WOULD BE
POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WITH THE CLIPPER PASSAGE.

AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS IN AND THINGS ARE
QUIET...BUT COLD...FOR THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE HINTS AT YET ANOTHER CLIPPER FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY. FOR NOW...I DID NOT PUT ANY PRECIP EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT...BUT I DID BRING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW OUT WEST.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S AND 40S...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

VFR CONDS ACRS TERMINALS TDA. PCPN /LGT-MDT RA/ SHUD ENVELOP AREA BY
LT AFTN/EVE PUSH...PROGRESSING FM SW TO NE-- 21-23Z CHO TO 02-04Z
BWI/MTN. FLGT CONDS SHUD RAPIDLY DECLINE THRU MVFR TO IFR. XPCT IFR
CONDS OVNGT INTO THE BGNG OF MON MRNG PUSH...BEFORE GRDL IMPRVMNT
COMES. VFR SHUD RTN BY NOON MON.

WNDS WL ALSO BE A CONCERN...AS A 60-70 KT LOW LVL JET WL RESIDE AS
LOW AS 2K FT. THESE CONDS SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER LLWS MENTION FOR ALL
TAFS ELY MON MRNG. THINK SHEAR SHUD LESSEN BY SUNRISE MON. HWVR...
15-20 KT SUSTAINED SSWLY WNDS WL REMAIN THRU MOST OF DAY MON BEFORE
VEERING LT IN THE DAY.

WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHERLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE UP/OFF THE COAST ON
WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE IT IS...WINDS COULD STRENGTHEN.
GOOD CHANCE OF -RA AND/OR -SN WEDNESDAY. IF SNOW FALLS...LOW
CIGS/VSBY WOULD RESULT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY THURSDAY TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

NO PROBS ON WATERS ATTM. THE P-GRAD WL INCREASE SUN AFTN AS A
WMFNT APPROACHES. HV EXPANDED SCA FOR THE EVNG HRS TO INCL MOST OF
THE BAY. A 60-70 LLJ WL PASS OVER WATERS LT AT NGT. HWVR MIXING WL
BE POOR...ASSISTED BY 50+ DEGF AIR TEMPS OVER WATER TEMPS IN THE
LWR- MID 40S. HV CAPPED WINDS AT 30 KT...HOLDING OFF GLW MENTION.
DAYSHIFT WL BE GIVING THIS MORE ATTN...AS THERE WL BE A LOT OF WND
NOT FAR OFF THE WATERS EDGE.

THE JET...AND THE WMFNT...WL PASS N OF THE WATERS MON MRNG BUT WNDS
WL INCR AGN MON AFTN AS THE CDFNT APPROACHES. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
LULL /RELATIVELY SPEAKING/...BUT THE GRADIENT WL SUPPORT 20-25 KT
WINDS MON AFTN. HV XTNDD SCA FOR ALL WATERS INTO MON.

LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING
ON TRACK OF LOW UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...SOME GUSTS TO SCA LEVEL
ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER MARYLAND BAY...ON WEDNESDAY.
MORE SCA-LEVEL GUSTS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BEHIND A
CLIPPER SYSTEM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WINDS ON THE MID CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 MPH BY SUN
NIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE TEMP CONTRAST BETWEEN THE AIR AND
WATER...MUCH BETTER WINDS WILL BE CONFINED ALOFT. EVEN THE TYPICALLY
AGGRESSIVE CBOFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE WL BE NO WATER LVL
RISE WITH TIDES TODAY OR TONIGHT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OF
COURSE...BUT EVEN IF THERE WERE MODEL ERRORS STILL DO NOT ANTICIPATE
ANY ISSUES.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ531>534-536-537-539>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ530-535-538.

&&

$$
UPDATE..WOODY!
PRVS...HTS/JCE










000
FXUS61 KAKQ 231506
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1006 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE EAST
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HI PRES NOW OFF THE CST...WILL CONT TO SLO DRIFT E AWAY FM THE
CST THROUGH TDA. CLOUDS CONT TO THICKEN AND LWR FM THE SW AS GULF
COAST MOISTURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFT NE THROUGH THE SE
CONUS...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. XPCG MUCH OF THE DAY TO BE DRY...BUT SOME RAIN
SHOULD ARRIVE IN FAR SW PORTIONS OF LATE IN THE DAY. WILL CONT W/
INCRSG POPS TO 50-60% POPS SW LATE IN THE DAY...W/ RIBBON OF
30-40% POP FROM THE NW PIEDMONT THROUGH NE NC. HI TEMPS RANGING FM
THE M50S NW TO L60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WILL CROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TNGT. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE (PWTRS INCRSG TO 1.5 TO
2 IN 00-06Z/24 PER 00Z/23 GFS) WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DUE TO A
STRONG NEARLY 70KT LLJ. POPS FOR RAIN DURING THE 12HR PERIOD TNGT
WILL CONT AT 100%. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
COASTAL NE NC (NOT READY TO ADD TO OTHER AREAS - ESP ERN VA/LWR SE
MD BUT WOULDN`T RULE IT OUT)...AND SPC HAS OUTLINED THAT AREA
(CSTL NE NC) IN SLGT CHC SVR. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
6HR PRESSURE FALLS OF -6MB TO -10MB GFS WILL RESULT IN
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE COAST.
GUSTS FROM THE SSE DIRECTION OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. LO
TEMPS TNGT SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 50S...WITH READINGS LIKELY TO
RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG FORCING AND SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
SHOULD RESULT IN A ~6HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAIN TNGT...WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS AVERAGING 0.5 TO 0.75 IN
N/CNTRL AND 1.00-1.25 IN NR THE CST (AND NE NC).

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION BY 12Z/25...W/ A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE FAR WRN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUE. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING...WITH A GUSTY SW WIND
DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S (SEE THE
THE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS). WILL LIMIT ANY POPS TO FAR
ESE AREAS OF FA AS 00Z/23 NAM RMNS OUTLIER IN LINGERING MOISTURE
ACRS THOSE LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS XPCD INLAND...WITH PSBL CLOUDS LINGERING RIGHT ALG THE
COAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TUE. HIGHS TUE
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER MORNING
LOWS FROM THE MID 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z/23 RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF COMING MORE INTO LINE WRT PTNTL
LO PRES DEVELOPING ALG STALLED FNTL BNDRY NR THE SE CONUS CST LT
TUE/TUE NGT...THEN TRACKING NNE ALG THE CST WED INTO WED NGT. A
BUSY PD OF TRAVEL MIDWEEK INCRSLY LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY
RA...AND AS PTNTL CSTL STM WINDS DOWN (LT WED/WED NGT)...MDL TEMP
PROFILES SUGGEST PSBL RA ENDING AS WET SN INLAND. HAVE NUDGED POPS
UP TO 70-80% E PORTION W...40-60% INLAND ON WED.

PCPN/MOIST THEN MOVES E OF THE AREA AND OFF THE CST LATER WED
WED NGT...WITH POPS DIMINISHING FM W TO E. A MAINLY DRY FRONT
SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO EARLY FRI MORNG. HI PRES WILL
THEN BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI THRU SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE L40S W AND M/U40S E WED...IN THE U40S TO L50S THU...IN THE
M/U40S FRI...AND RANGE THRU THE 40S SAT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LWR 40S WED MORNG...IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S THU AND
FRI MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S SAT MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR TO START OFF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD WITH HI PRES CENTERED OFFSHORE
AND A COMPLEX FRNTAL SYSTM APPROACHING FM THE W. CIGS WILL
DECREASE THRU THE DAY AS A WARM FRNT PUSHES NWRD THRU THE SE
STATES...WITH WINDS BCMG GUSTY OUT OF THE SE LATE IN THE DAY AS
WELL. CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE FM SW TO NE FM MID TO LATE
AFTN...AND AM EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DROP TO IFR AS THE RAIN
OVERSPREADS THE REGION THRU THE NITETIME HRS. WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT
MAY BE PSBL (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST) MON MORNG AS THE SYSTM
DEEPENS OVR THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE PSBL OVR EXTREME
SE VA/NE NC. IMPROVING CONDITIONS INTO TUE AS WEAK HI PRES BLDS
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST UPDATED WITH AN UPGRADE TO GALE WARNING OVR THE OCEAN.
DESPITE WARM AIR OVR COOL WATER TEMPS...WITH A STRONG PRES
GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT AND WEAK LO PRES
DEVELOPMENT OVR NRN VA...AND LATEST NAM12 PROGGING 925 MB WINDS
~75 KT...THINK THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW HRS OF WINDS AOA
34 KT OVR THE OCEAN TNGT. SEAS WILL REACH 6-8 FT. GUSTS MAY COME
CLOSE TO GALE FORCE OVR THE BAY AS WELL (AT LEAST AT ELEVATED
SITES) WHERE STRONG SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. ALSO
MAINTAINED THE SCA HEADLINES FOR THE OTHER WTRS. THE GALE WARNING
ENDS LATE MON MORNING...BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AS GUSTS COULD
CONTINUE IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE THRU THE AFTN HRS. THE SCA
HEADLINES ALL END DURING THE DAY MON AS WINDS DECREASE JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE WTRS LATE MON NGT/TUE MORNG.
IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS THEN INTO TUE WITH HI PRES OVR THE
AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ633-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632.
     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...ALB/TMG
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KPHI 231433
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
933 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY INTO MONDAY. AS IT DOES, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT, THEN A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH
LATE MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR LATER TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM
WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND BY THANKSGIVING. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST IS RESULTING
IN A RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE EVIDENT ON THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER LOUISIANA. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS, A RIDGE IS
BUILDING ACROSS THE EAST.

THE PRESENT OF THIS RIDGE IS HELPING TO DEFLECT LINGERING WEAK LIFT
FARTHER NORTHWARD. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS SHIFTING WITH
TIME TODAY. THEREFORE, ANY SPRINKLES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH ARE
EXPECTED TO END. THERE ARE TWO BANDS OF MORE PRONOUNCED CLOUDINESS,
ONE ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK LIFT, AND THE
SECOND IS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR DELMARVA ZONES. THE LATTER IS
CIRRUS FROM THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES.
OVERALL, CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH SUNSHINE TODAY HOWEVER THERE IS
EXPECTED TO BE MORE OF AN INCREASE ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BY
EVENING.

GIVEN THE WAA OCCURRING WITHIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME PLUS
TEMPERATURES STARTING MUCH WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO, HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 50S FOR MANY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES, AND THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED
BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS. THIS INCLUDED A FASTER INCREASE IN
THE TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS MORNING FOR SEVERAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD THE GRTLKS TONIGHT AND BRING
ITS ASSOCD WMFNT THRU ERLY AND A MARKED INCREASE IN SWLY FLOW.
THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
POTENT LLJ.  OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL NOT DROP MUCH IN RESPONSE
TO THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS AND THE SWLY WIND.   PRECIP CHCS
WILL INCREASE THRU THE NIGHT.  DURG THE EVE THE BEST CHCS WILL BE S
AND W WITH PRECIP EVERYWHERE AND HIGH POPS DURG THE OVERNIGHT AND
ERLY MRNG HOURS.  RAIN COULD BE HVY AT TIMES AND SOME THUNDER CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY S AND E.  QPF VALUES WILL GENLY BE
BETWEEN 1/2 AND 3/4 OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.  WITH
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE ALL OF THE PRECIP
THAT FALLS WILL BE IN THE LIQUID FORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BIG STORY IS THE WEDNESDAY COASTAL SYSTEM...BUT BEFORE WE GET
AHEAD OF OURSELVES, THERE ARE A FEW THINGS TO TALK ABOUT FOR
MONDAY.

HARD TO BELIEVE WE COULD GO FROM A RECORD LOW AT ALLENTOWN
YESTERDAY TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS JUST TWO DAYS LATER, BUT THAT IS
WHAT IS LOOKING LIKE IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. AS MENTIONED
IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION, THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY IN
THE DAY. ALSO, AFTER SUNRISE, THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ABOVE THE STABLE MARINE LAYER ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COASTS IN DE AND SOUTHERN NJ. THUS, CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF
THUNDER. RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS, WELL AHEAD OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT...MOVING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY
NIGHT. THEN TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES LOWER AS COMPARED TO MONDAY, BUT NEAR NORMALS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE PERIOD EVERYONE IS TALKING
ABOUT. STILL LOOKING AT A COASTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST EARLY ON WEDNESDAY THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST, AND WILL
BE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES MOST NOTABLY WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW,
THOUGH THE GAP IS CLOSING BETWEEN THE ECMWF TRACK (STILL THE
FURTHEST WEST) AND THE CMC TRACK (STILL THE FURTHEST EAST), WITH
THE GFS IN A COMFORTABLE MIDDLE GROUND. AS FAR AS PRECIP CHANCES,
IT LOOKS VERY LIKELY THAT AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF THE I95 CORRIDOR
WILL SEE PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR, THE CHANCE
IS LESS, THOUGH STILL QUITE HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS EVEN THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD GFS
SOLUTION SHOWS THE PRECIP EXTENDING WEST OF THE POCONOS.

PRECIP TYPE IS CONSIDERABLY MORE UNCERTAIN. THE ECMWF DEPICTS A
MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION,
PRODUCING A ROBUST WARM LAYER WHICH WOULD MEAN VERY FEW ICE
CRYSTALS ALOFT. HOWEVER, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE POCONOS, THE ECMWF KEEPS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING, SO JUST A COLD RAIN FOR MOST OF THE REGION WHILE THERE
IS A SLIM CHANCE OF FREEZING PRECIP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
POCONOS. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND, HAS THE JET, AND CONSEQUENTLY
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE OCEAN, RESULTING IN EITHER
ALL RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH ALL SNOW
POSSIBLE IN THE POCONOS. WITH EITHER SOLUTION, THE CHANCES OF
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THE DAY SEEM SMALL (WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE POCONOS).

WHAT COULD BE THE BIGGER ISSUE IS IF OR HOW LONG THE PRECIP LINGERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HAS PRECIP
RAPIDLY MOVING OUT BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS
SOLUTION, WHILE MUCH OF THE REGION COULD SEE A PERIOD OF ALL SNOW
AFTER SUNSET, THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
WOULD BE BRIEF. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND, LINGERS PRECIP IN THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, BUT KEEPS THE EASTERN HALF THE
REGION ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALL THAT TO SAY THAT
WHILE PRECIPITATION LOOKS VERY LIKELY IN THE WEDNESDAY TO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD, THE CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING
SNOW FOR MOST OF THE REGION IS QUITE SMALL.

ONCE THE PRECIP CLEARS OUT, THANKSGIVING LOOKS TO BE PLEASANT,
ALBEIT CHILLY WITH HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IN THE
WAKE OF THE COASTAL LOW, A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS SETTLES IN
OVER THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK KEEPING HIGHS IN THE
30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TODAY...VFR, WITH CEILINGS MAINLY AT OR ABOVE 10,000 FEET.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS, BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY TOWARD
EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR TO START, THEN CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY LOWER
TO MVFR AND IFR /LOCAL LIFR/ AS A WARM FRONT ARRIVES. A PERIOD OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES. THIS WILL ALSO REDUCE THE VISIBILITIES, WITH EVEN SOME FOG
POSSIBLE LATE ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST AND FROM NEAR KABE ON
NORTHWARD. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO
NEAR 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND COULD BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES. THE
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE FROM NEAR THE KPHL METRO ON SOUTH AND
EAST. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE SOUTH AND
EAST OF KPHL. A POTENT LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE AREA, AND
THEREFORE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WAS INCLUDED FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...IFR /LOCAL LIFR/ CEILINGS FOR AWHILE IN THE MORNING, THEN
CEILINGS SHOULD RISE TO MVFR AND THEN PERHAPS VFR IN THE AFTERNOON
AS A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS IS IN PLACE. IT IS POSSIBLE THOUGH THAT
SOME LOW CLOUDS LINGER LONGER ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. RAIN
DEPARTS EARLY, HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS.
THE CORE OF LOW-LEVEL JET SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY,
THEREFORE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY BRING MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO RA (POSSIBLY RASN AT TIMES) FOR
THE REGION. IN ADDITION, EXPECT PERSISTENT NORTHERLY OR
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS FOR GENERALLY THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS CONTINUE. IN ADDITION, IF
PRECIPITATION LINGERS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT, COULD SEE -SN AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES BECAUSE OF IT.

THANKSGIVING...CONDITIONS SLOWLY RETURN TO VFR AND WINDS SHIFT TO
WESTERLY.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVG FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE GRTLKS. THE ASSOCD WMFNT
WILL MOVE THRU TONIGHT AND RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE WATERS
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...GALE CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR GENERALLY THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY. THEN WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE
BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE IN THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY
ABOVE SCA CRITERIA.

THANKSGIVING...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW SCA
CRITERIA EARLY IN THE DAY AND REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO THE
REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS BELOW FOR OUR FOUR
PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING UNBROKEN PERIOD OF
RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL SNOWFALL DATA.

DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS:

NOVEMBER 26TH:               NOVEMBER 27TH:       PERIOD OF RECORD:

ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955    1.2 INCHES 1978            1874

PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898         6.9 INCHES 1949,1938       1872

ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950         4.5 INCHES 1978            1894

ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925         7.0 INCHES 1938            1922

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...GORSE/JOHNSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...DRAG/KLINE





000
FXUS61 KPHI 231433
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
933 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY INTO MONDAY. AS IT DOES, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT, THEN A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH
LATE MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR LATER TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM
WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND BY THANKSGIVING. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST IS RESULTING
IN A RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE EVIDENT ON THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER LOUISIANA. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS, A RIDGE IS
BUILDING ACROSS THE EAST.

THE PRESENT OF THIS RIDGE IS HELPING TO DEFLECT LINGERING WEAK LIFT
FARTHER NORTHWARD. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS SHIFTING WITH
TIME TODAY. THEREFORE, ANY SPRINKLES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH ARE
EXPECTED TO END. THERE ARE TWO BANDS OF MORE PRONOUNCED CLOUDINESS,
ONE ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK LIFT, AND THE
SECOND IS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR DELMARVA ZONES. THE LATTER IS
CIRRUS FROM THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES.
OVERALL, CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH SUNSHINE TODAY HOWEVER THERE IS
EXPECTED TO BE MORE OF AN INCREASE ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BY
EVENING.

GIVEN THE WAA OCCURRING WITHIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME PLUS
TEMPERATURES STARTING MUCH WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO, HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 50S FOR MANY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES, AND THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED
BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS. THIS INCLUDED A FASTER INCREASE IN
THE TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS MORNING FOR SEVERAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD THE GRTLKS TONIGHT AND BRING
ITS ASSOCD WMFNT THRU ERLY AND A MARKED INCREASE IN SWLY FLOW.
THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
POTENT LLJ.  OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL NOT DROP MUCH IN RESPONSE
TO THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS AND THE SWLY WIND.   PRECIP CHCS
WILL INCREASE THRU THE NIGHT.  DURG THE EVE THE BEST CHCS WILL BE S
AND W WITH PRECIP EVERYWHERE AND HIGH POPS DURG THE OVERNIGHT AND
ERLY MRNG HOURS.  RAIN COULD BE HVY AT TIMES AND SOME THUNDER CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY S AND E.  QPF VALUES WILL GENLY BE
BETWEEN 1/2 AND 3/4 OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.  WITH
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE ALL OF THE PRECIP
THAT FALLS WILL BE IN THE LIQUID FORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BIG STORY IS THE WEDNESDAY COASTAL SYSTEM...BUT BEFORE WE GET
AHEAD OF OURSELVES, THERE ARE A FEW THINGS TO TALK ABOUT FOR
MONDAY.

HARD TO BELIEVE WE COULD GO FROM A RECORD LOW AT ALLENTOWN
YESTERDAY TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS JUST TWO DAYS LATER, BUT THAT IS
WHAT IS LOOKING LIKE IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. AS MENTIONED
IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION, THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY IN
THE DAY. ALSO, AFTER SUNRISE, THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ABOVE THE STABLE MARINE LAYER ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COASTS IN DE AND SOUTHERN NJ. THUS, CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF
THUNDER. RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS, WELL AHEAD OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT...MOVING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY
NIGHT. THEN TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES LOWER AS COMPARED TO MONDAY, BUT NEAR NORMALS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE PERIOD EVERYONE IS TALKING
ABOUT. STILL LOOKING AT A COASTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST EARLY ON WEDNESDAY THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST, AND WILL
BE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES MOST NOTABLY WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW,
THOUGH THE GAP IS CLOSING BETWEEN THE ECMWF TRACK (STILL THE
FURTHEST WEST) AND THE CMC TRACK (STILL THE FURTHEST EAST), WITH
THE GFS IN A COMFORTABLE MIDDLE GROUND. AS FAR AS PRECIP CHANCES,
IT LOOKS VERY LIKELY THAT AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF THE I95 CORRIDOR
WILL SEE PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR, THE CHANCE
IS LESS, THOUGH STILL QUITE HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS EVEN THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD GFS
SOLUTION SHOWS THE PRECIP EXTENDING WEST OF THE POCONOS.

PRECIP TYPE IS CONSIDERABLY MORE UNCERTAIN. THE ECMWF DEPICTS A
MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION,
PRODUCING A ROBUST WARM LAYER WHICH WOULD MEAN VERY FEW ICE
CRYSTALS ALOFT. HOWEVER, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE POCONOS, THE ECMWF KEEPS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING, SO JUST A COLD RAIN FOR MOST OF THE REGION WHILE THERE
IS A SLIM CHANCE OF FREEZING PRECIP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
POCONOS. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND, HAS THE JET, AND CONSEQUENTLY
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE OCEAN, RESULTING IN EITHER
ALL RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH ALL SNOW
POSSIBLE IN THE POCONOS. WITH EITHER SOLUTION, THE CHANCES OF
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THE DAY SEEM SMALL (WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE POCONOS).

WHAT COULD BE THE BIGGER ISSUE IS IF OR HOW LONG THE PRECIP LINGERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HAS PRECIP
RAPIDLY MOVING OUT BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS
SOLUTION, WHILE MUCH OF THE REGION COULD SEE A PERIOD OF ALL SNOW
AFTER SUNSET, THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
WOULD BE BRIEF. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND, LINGERS PRECIP IN THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, BUT KEEPS THE EASTERN HALF THE
REGION ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALL THAT TO SAY THAT
WHILE PRECIPITATION LOOKS VERY LIKELY IN THE WEDNESDAY TO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD, THE CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING
SNOW FOR MOST OF THE REGION IS QUITE SMALL.

ONCE THE PRECIP CLEARS OUT, THANKSGIVING LOOKS TO BE PLEASANT,
ALBEIT CHILLY WITH HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IN THE
WAKE OF THE COASTAL LOW, A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS SETTLES IN
OVER THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK KEEPING HIGHS IN THE
30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TODAY...VFR, WITH CEILINGS MAINLY AT OR ABOVE 10,000 FEET.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS, BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY TOWARD
EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR TO START, THEN CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY LOWER
TO MVFR AND IFR /LOCAL LIFR/ AS A WARM FRONT ARRIVES. A PERIOD OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES. THIS WILL ALSO REDUCE THE VISIBILITIES, WITH EVEN SOME FOG
POSSIBLE LATE ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST AND FROM NEAR KABE ON
NORTHWARD. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO
NEAR 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND COULD BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES. THE
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE FROM NEAR THE KPHL METRO ON SOUTH AND
EAST. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE SOUTH AND
EAST OF KPHL. A POTENT LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE AREA, AND
THEREFORE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WAS INCLUDED FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...IFR /LOCAL LIFR/ CEILINGS FOR AWHILE IN THE MORNING, THEN
CEILINGS SHOULD RISE TO MVFR AND THEN PERHAPS VFR IN THE AFTERNOON
AS A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS IS IN PLACE. IT IS POSSIBLE THOUGH THAT
SOME LOW CLOUDS LINGER LONGER ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. RAIN
DEPARTS EARLY, HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS.
THE CORE OF LOW-LEVEL JET SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY,
THEREFORE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY BRING MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO RA (POSSIBLY RASN AT TIMES) FOR
THE REGION. IN ADDITION, EXPECT PERSISTENT NORTHERLY OR
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS FOR GENERALLY THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS CONTINUE. IN ADDITION, IF
PRECIPITATION LINGERS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT, COULD SEE -SN AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES BECAUSE OF IT.

THANKSGIVING...CONDITIONS SLOWLY RETURN TO VFR AND WINDS SHIFT TO
WESTERLY.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVG FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE GRTLKS. THE ASSOCD WMFNT
WILL MOVE THRU TONIGHT AND RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE WATERS
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...GALE CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR GENERALLY THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY. THEN WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE
BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE IN THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY
ABOVE SCA CRITERIA.

THANKSGIVING...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW SCA
CRITERIA EARLY IN THE DAY AND REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO THE
REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS BELOW FOR OUR FOUR
PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING UNBROKEN PERIOD OF
RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL SNOWFALL DATA.

DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS:

NOVEMBER 26TH:               NOVEMBER 27TH:       PERIOD OF RECORD:

ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955    1.2 INCHES 1978            1874

PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898         6.9 INCHES 1949,1938       1872

ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950         4.5 INCHES 1978            1894

ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925         7.0 INCHES 1938            1922

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...GORSE/JOHNSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...DRAG/KLINE




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231405
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
905 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF
A MONDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WK SHRTWV ACRS NW PA WL CONT SHWR CHCS THRU THE MRNG. OTRW EXP
MAINLY DRY WEA THRU MUCH OF THE DAY...THOUGH MAINLY CLDY CONDS WL
CONT. THE NXT SHRTWV IN SW FLOW WL ADVN ACRS THE OH VLY AND GT LKS
RGN LT TDA INTO TNGT. WITH AMPLE DEEP MSTR...UPR SPPRT...AND LLVL
JET EXP WIDESPREAD RAIN. MRNG RAOBS SPPRT HIGHS IN THE 50S...TO
LWR 60S TWD MGW. LTL TEMP DCR IS EXPD TNGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BROAD UPR TROFG AND A DEEPENING SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO
THE UPR GT LKS MON. THE LOWS ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS PROGGED FOR A MON
AFTN PASSAGE ACRS OUR RGN. MSTR IS LTD SO MAINTAINED CHC POPS WITH
FROPA. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ARND THE DEEPENING LOW SHOULD
BRING GUSTY SFC WNDS AS MXG BEGINS MON. GUSTS ARND 40 MPH ARE
LIKELY...AND A FEW HIGHER GUSTS ARE PSBL IF DEEP MXG OCCURS.

COLD ADVCTN KICKS IN AFT FROPA AS BROAD UPR TROFG RMNS ACRS THE GT
LKS AND UPR MIDWEST. STRATOCU IS EXPD...THOUGH SNW SHWR CHCS WL BE
MINIMAL WITH A SW BNDRY LYR FLOW PREVENTING ANY LK CONNECTIONS OR
SGFNT UPSLOPE COMPONENT.

TEMPS ARE EXPD TO RCH 10-15 DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS MON...BUT WL DCR
TO ARND 10 DEG BLO AVG BY TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS TOWARD THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY...A STRONG
SOUTHEAST COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MATURE QUICKLY AND MOVE NORTH
OR NORTHEAST ALONG THE EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE. MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE STRONGLY IN THIS PERIOD. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A MAJOR STORM
INSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...WHILE THE GFS IS QUICKER...WITH AN
OPEN WAVE GOING OUT TO SEA AND FAILING TO LATCH ONTO THE STRONG
THERMAL GRADIENT. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM COULD HAVE
MAJOR IMPLICATIONS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TRAVEL TO AND
FROM THE EAST COAST...ESPECIALLY THE INTERIOR AIRPORTS AND HIGHWAYS
WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE SIGNIFICANT IF STRONGER MODEL
SOLUTIONS VERIFY.

DO NOT EXPECT ANY IMPACTS ACROSS THE LOCAL CWA...BUT GIVEN THE HIGH
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS POTENTIAL STORM...FOLKS TRAVELING TO
OR FROM THE EAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR FORECASTS.

OTHERWISE...A PERIOD OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
FOR TUESDAY AND CONTINUE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK...INCLUDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. PRESENTLY DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A PROGRESSIVE
CLIPPER-LIKE WAVE COULD BRING A BRIEF BOUT OF SNOW TO THE REGION
THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY.

BOOKBINDER

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH LIGHT SRLY SFC WINDS. AS A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED WITH INCREASING SERLY FLOW. EXPECTING MVFR RESTRICTIONS
LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH WARM FRONT RAIN...SOME DROPS TO
IFR ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR THE NRN TERMINALS. GUSTY SRLY WINDS
EXPECTED TO THEN PERSIST INTO MON.
TAX

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231405
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
905 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF
A MONDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WK SHRTWV ACRS NW PA WL CONT SHWR CHCS THRU THE MRNG. OTRW EXP
MAINLY DRY WEA THRU MUCH OF THE DAY...THOUGH MAINLY CLDY CONDS WL
CONT. THE NXT SHRTWV IN SW FLOW WL ADVN ACRS THE OH VLY AND GT LKS
RGN LT TDA INTO TNGT. WITH AMPLE DEEP MSTR...UPR SPPRT...AND LLVL
JET EXP WIDESPREAD RAIN. MRNG RAOBS SPPRT HIGHS IN THE 50S...TO
LWR 60S TWD MGW. LTL TEMP DCR IS EXPD TNGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BROAD UPR TROFG AND A DEEPENING SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO
THE UPR GT LKS MON. THE LOWS ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS PROGGED FOR A MON
AFTN PASSAGE ACRS OUR RGN. MSTR IS LTD SO MAINTAINED CHC POPS WITH
FROPA. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ARND THE DEEPENING LOW SHOULD
BRING GUSTY SFC WNDS AS MXG BEGINS MON. GUSTS ARND 40 MPH ARE
LIKELY...AND A FEW HIGHER GUSTS ARE PSBL IF DEEP MXG OCCURS.

COLD ADVCTN KICKS IN AFT FROPA AS BROAD UPR TROFG RMNS ACRS THE GT
LKS AND UPR MIDWEST. STRATOCU IS EXPD...THOUGH SNW SHWR CHCS WL BE
MINIMAL WITH A SW BNDRY LYR FLOW PREVENTING ANY LK CONNECTIONS OR
SGFNT UPSLOPE COMPONENT.

TEMPS ARE EXPD TO RCH 10-15 DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS MON...BUT WL DCR
TO ARND 10 DEG BLO AVG BY TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS TOWARD THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY...A STRONG
SOUTHEAST COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MATURE QUICKLY AND MOVE NORTH
OR NORTHEAST ALONG THE EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE. MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE STRONGLY IN THIS PERIOD. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A MAJOR STORM
INSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...WHILE THE GFS IS QUICKER...WITH AN
OPEN WAVE GOING OUT TO SEA AND FAILING TO LATCH ONTO THE STRONG
THERMAL GRADIENT. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM COULD HAVE
MAJOR IMPLICATIONS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TRAVEL TO AND
FROM THE EAST COAST...ESPECIALLY THE INTERIOR AIRPORTS AND HIGHWAYS
WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE SIGNIFICANT IF STRONGER MODEL
SOLUTIONS VERIFY.

DO NOT EXPECT ANY IMPACTS ACROSS THE LOCAL CWA...BUT GIVEN THE HIGH
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS POTENTIAL STORM...FOLKS TRAVELING TO
OR FROM THE EAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR FORECASTS.

OTHERWISE...A PERIOD OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
FOR TUESDAY AND CONTINUE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK...INCLUDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. PRESENTLY DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A PROGRESSIVE
CLIPPER-LIKE WAVE COULD BRING A BRIEF BOUT OF SNOW TO THE REGION
THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY.

BOOKBINDER

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH LIGHT SRLY SFC WINDS. AS A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED WITH INCREASING SERLY FLOW. EXPECTING MVFR RESTRICTIONS
LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH WARM FRONT RAIN...SOME DROPS TO
IFR ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR THE NRN TERMINALS. GUSTY SRLY WINDS
EXPECTED TO THEN PERSIST INTO MON.
TAX

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231147
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
647 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMING TREND CONTINUES TODAY...BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN TONIGHT. WINDY AND WARM MONDAY...BEFORE
TURNING SHARPLY COLDER LATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TEMPS THIS MORNING HAVE LARGELY STAGNATED WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER AND AT LEAST SOME SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW. READINGS COMMONLY IN
THE MID 40S ARE A FAR CRY FROM 24 HRS AGO WHERE WE HAD MID TO LOW
TEENS.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK WAVE PRODUCING RAIN SHOWERS
ALONG OUR NWRN PERIPHERY. WITH H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS FROM
CURRENTLY 240DEG...EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE ITS TRACK
ALONG THE NRN 1/3 OF THE CWA. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER INTENSIFYING SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.
EXPECTING DAYTIME HIGHS TO RANGE ABOUT 8-10F ABOVE AVERAGE.

A DEEPENING LOW PUSHES OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS TONIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES BY MON MORNING. AS
THE LOW MOVES UP THE MS VALLEY IT WILL GATHER COPIOUS GULF
MOISTURE THAT WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH A
WARM FRONT. STRONG SE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC...IN THE FORM OF A
60+ KT H85 JET...WILL SET UP DOWNSLOPING FROM THE RIDGES AND
COULD DELAY THE ONSET OF RAIN BY AN HOUR OR TWO. BY 03Z
MON...HOWEVER...RAINSHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA AS THE LOW PIVOTS NORTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH THE
STOUT H85 JET PERSISTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE RIDGES BETWEEN
00-06Z...THE BL SHOULD DECOUPLE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE HIGHEST WINDS
ALOFT. EXPECTING TO SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE 20-30KT
RANGE...BUT WILL NOT BE ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT QUICKLY THROUGH THE CWA EARLY MONDAY
MORNING IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SURGING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN ONTARIO. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND ATTENDANT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD RAPIDLY END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND 12Z AS
PSEUDO-CAPPED WARM SECTOR AIRMASS SPREADS INTO THE AREA. WITH THE
LARGE SCALE MOISTURE SURGE...COULD SEE SOME DRIZZLE OR SPOTTY
SHOWERS EARLY...BUT OTHERWISE DEEP MECHANICAL MIXING SHOULD PROMOTE
AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE CWA BY MID-LATE MORNING. BEST
CHANCE FOR SUNSHINE (AND LONGEST WARM SECTOR DURATION) WILL BE EAST
OF A ZANESVILLE TO NEW CASTLE LINE...WHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP
OUT AT OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES UNDER GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THAT WILL USHER
IN SOME SEASONABLY HUMID AIR AS WELL.

MODELS LARGELY AGREE WITH THE DEPICTION OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN 19-23Z...SIGNALING THE
ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT. EVEN IF WE POKE INTO
THE 60S...SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY LOOKS RATHER MEAGER GIVEN MODEST
LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THUNDER CHANCES LOOK
LOW...BUT STRONG FRONTAL ASCENT COULD YIELD A BROKEN NARROW
COLD-FRONTAL RAINBAND (SQUALL) DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON
FRONTAL PUSH. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF 70-80 KNOTS OF MID LEVEL
FLOW...WE COULD SEE SOME STRONG CONVECTIVE GUSTS ALONG AND
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IF THIS FEATURE MATERIALIZES.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SHARPLY LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. DEEP
LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AS SEVERAL EMBEDDED MID LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE
THROUGH THE UPPER JET AXIS. LOW LEVEL FLOW TRAJECTORIES LOOK POOR
FOR LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS UNTIL LATER TUESDAY...AND EVEN THEN WOULD BE
AIMED ACROSS WESTERN NY.

BOOKBINDER

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS TOWARD THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY...A STRONG
SOUTHEAST COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MATURE QUICKLY AND MOVE NORTH
OR NORTHEAST ALONG THE EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE. MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE STRONGLY IN THIS PERIOD. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A MAJOR STORM
INSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...WHILE THE GFS IS QUICKER...WITH AN
OPEN WAVE GOING OUT TO SEA AND FAILING TO LATCH ONTO THE STRONG
THERMAL GRADIENT. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM COULD HAVE
MAJOR IMPLICATIONS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TRAVEL TO AND
FROM THE EAST COAST...ESPECIALLY THE INTERIOR AIRPORTS AND HIGHWAYS
WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE SIGNIFICANT IF STRONGER MODEL
SOLUTIONS VERIFY.

DO NOT EXPECT ANY IMPACTS ACROSS THE LOCAL CWA...BUT GIVEN THE HIGH
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS POTENTIAL STORM...FOLKS TRAVELING TO
OR FROM THE EAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR FORECASTS.

OTHERWISE...A PERIOD OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
FOR TUESDAY AND CONTINUE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK...INCLUDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. PRESENTLY DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A PROGRESSIVE
CLIPPER-LIKE WAVE COULD BRING A BRIEF BOUT OF SNOW TO THE REGION
THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY.

BOOKBINDER

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH LIGHT SRLY SFC WINDS. AS A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED WITH INCREASING SERLY FLOW. EXPECTING MVFR RESTRICTIONS
LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH WARM FRONT RAIN...SOME DROPS TO
IFR ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR THE NRN TERMINALS. GUSTY SRLY WINDS
EXPECTED TO THEN PERSIST INTO MON.
TAX

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231147
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
647 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMING TREND CONTINUES TODAY...BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN TONIGHT. WINDY AND WARM MONDAY...BEFORE
TURNING SHARPLY COLDER LATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TEMPS THIS MORNING HAVE LARGELY STAGNATED WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER AND AT LEAST SOME SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW. READINGS COMMONLY IN
THE MID 40S ARE A FAR CRY FROM 24 HRS AGO WHERE WE HAD MID TO LOW
TEENS.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK WAVE PRODUCING RAIN SHOWERS
ALONG OUR NWRN PERIPHERY. WITH H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS FROM
CURRENTLY 240DEG...EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE ITS TRACK
ALONG THE NRN 1/3 OF THE CWA. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER INTENSIFYING SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.
EXPECTING DAYTIME HIGHS TO RANGE ABOUT 8-10F ABOVE AVERAGE.

A DEEPENING LOW PUSHES OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS TONIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES BY MON MORNING. AS
THE LOW MOVES UP THE MS VALLEY IT WILL GATHER COPIOUS GULF
MOISTURE THAT WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH A
WARM FRONT. STRONG SE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC...IN THE FORM OF A
60+ KT H85 JET...WILL SET UP DOWNSLOPING FROM THE RIDGES AND
COULD DELAY THE ONSET OF RAIN BY AN HOUR OR TWO. BY 03Z
MON...HOWEVER...RAINSHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA AS THE LOW PIVOTS NORTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH THE
STOUT H85 JET PERSISTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE RIDGES BETWEEN
00-06Z...THE BL SHOULD DECOUPLE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE HIGHEST WINDS
ALOFT. EXPECTING TO SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE 20-30KT
RANGE...BUT WILL NOT BE ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT QUICKLY THROUGH THE CWA EARLY MONDAY
MORNING IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SURGING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN ONTARIO. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND ATTENDANT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD RAPIDLY END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND 12Z AS
PSEUDO-CAPPED WARM SECTOR AIRMASS SPREADS INTO THE AREA. WITH THE
LARGE SCALE MOISTURE SURGE...COULD SEE SOME DRIZZLE OR SPOTTY
SHOWERS EARLY...BUT OTHERWISE DEEP MECHANICAL MIXING SHOULD PROMOTE
AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE CWA BY MID-LATE MORNING. BEST
CHANCE FOR SUNSHINE (AND LONGEST WARM SECTOR DURATION) WILL BE EAST
OF A ZANESVILLE TO NEW CASTLE LINE...WHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP
OUT AT OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES UNDER GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THAT WILL USHER
IN SOME SEASONABLY HUMID AIR AS WELL.

MODELS LARGELY AGREE WITH THE DEPICTION OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN 19-23Z...SIGNALING THE
ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT. EVEN IF WE POKE INTO
THE 60S...SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY LOOKS RATHER MEAGER GIVEN MODEST
LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THUNDER CHANCES LOOK
LOW...BUT STRONG FRONTAL ASCENT COULD YIELD A BROKEN NARROW
COLD-FRONTAL RAINBAND (SQUALL) DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON
FRONTAL PUSH. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF 70-80 KNOTS OF MID LEVEL
FLOW...WE COULD SEE SOME STRONG CONVECTIVE GUSTS ALONG AND
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IF THIS FEATURE MATERIALIZES.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SHARPLY LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. DEEP
LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AS SEVERAL EMBEDDED MID LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE
THROUGH THE UPPER JET AXIS. LOW LEVEL FLOW TRAJECTORIES LOOK POOR
FOR LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS UNTIL LATER TUESDAY...AND EVEN THEN WOULD BE
AIMED ACROSS WESTERN NY.

BOOKBINDER

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS TOWARD THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY...A STRONG
SOUTHEAST COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MATURE QUICKLY AND MOVE NORTH
OR NORTHEAST ALONG THE EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE. MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE STRONGLY IN THIS PERIOD. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A MAJOR STORM
INSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...WHILE THE GFS IS QUICKER...WITH AN
OPEN WAVE GOING OUT TO SEA AND FAILING TO LATCH ONTO THE STRONG
THERMAL GRADIENT. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM COULD HAVE
MAJOR IMPLICATIONS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TRAVEL TO AND
FROM THE EAST COAST...ESPECIALLY THE INTERIOR AIRPORTS AND HIGHWAYS
WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE SIGNIFICANT IF STRONGER MODEL
SOLUTIONS VERIFY.

DO NOT EXPECT ANY IMPACTS ACROSS THE LOCAL CWA...BUT GIVEN THE HIGH
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS POTENTIAL STORM...FOLKS TRAVELING TO
OR FROM THE EAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR FORECASTS.

OTHERWISE...A PERIOD OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
FOR TUESDAY AND CONTINUE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK...INCLUDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. PRESENTLY DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A PROGRESSIVE
CLIPPER-LIKE WAVE COULD BRING A BRIEF BOUT OF SNOW TO THE REGION
THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY.

BOOKBINDER

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH LIGHT SRLY SFC WINDS. AS A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED WITH INCREASING SERLY FLOW. EXPECTING MVFR RESTRICTIONS
LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH WARM FRONT RAIN...SOME DROPS TO
IFR ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR THE NRN TERMINALS. GUSTY SRLY WINDS
EXPECTED TO THEN PERSIST INTO MON.
TAX

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231147
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
647 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMING TREND CONTINUES TODAY...BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN TONIGHT. WINDY AND WARM MONDAY...BEFORE
TURNING SHARPLY COLDER LATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TEMPS THIS MORNING HAVE LARGELY STAGNATED WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER AND AT LEAST SOME SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW. READINGS COMMONLY IN
THE MID 40S ARE A FAR CRY FROM 24 HRS AGO WHERE WE HAD MID TO LOW
TEENS.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK WAVE PRODUCING RAIN SHOWERS
ALONG OUR NWRN PERIPHERY. WITH H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS FROM
CURRENTLY 240DEG...EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE ITS TRACK
ALONG THE NRN 1/3 OF THE CWA. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER INTENSIFYING SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.
EXPECTING DAYTIME HIGHS TO RANGE ABOUT 8-10F ABOVE AVERAGE.

A DEEPENING LOW PUSHES OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS TONIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES BY MON MORNING. AS
THE LOW MOVES UP THE MS VALLEY IT WILL GATHER COPIOUS GULF
MOISTURE THAT WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH A
WARM FRONT. STRONG SE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC...IN THE FORM OF A
60+ KT H85 JET...WILL SET UP DOWNSLOPING FROM THE RIDGES AND
COULD DELAY THE ONSET OF RAIN BY AN HOUR OR TWO. BY 03Z
MON...HOWEVER...RAINSHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA AS THE LOW PIVOTS NORTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH THE
STOUT H85 JET PERSISTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE RIDGES BETWEEN
00-06Z...THE BL SHOULD DECOUPLE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE HIGHEST WINDS
ALOFT. EXPECTING TO SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE 20-30KT
RANGE...BUT WILL NOT BE ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT QUICKLY THROUGH THE CWA EARLY MONDAY
MORNING IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SURGING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN ONTARIO. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND ATTENDANT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD RAPIDLY END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND 12Z AS
PSEUDO-CAPPED WARM SECTOR AIRMASS SPREADS INTO THE AREA. WITH THE
LARGE SCALE MOISTURE SURGE...COULD SEE SOME DRIZZLE OR SPOTTY
SHOWERS EARLY...BUT OTHERWISE DEEP MECHANICAL MIXING SHOULD PROMOTE
AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE CWA BY MID-LATE MORNING. BEST
CHANCE FOR SUNSHINE (AND LONGEST WARM SECTOR DURATION) WILL BE EAST
OF A ZANESVILLE TO NEW CASTLE LINE...WHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP
OUT AT OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES UNDER GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THAT WILL USHER
IN SOME SEASONABLY HUMID AIR AS WELL.

MODELS LARGELY AGREE WITH THE DEPICTION OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN 19-23Z...SIGNALING THE
ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT. EVEN IF WE POKE INTO
THE 60S...SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY LOOKS RATHER MEAGER GIVEN MODEST
LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THUNDER CHANCES LOOK
LOW...BUT STRONG FRONTAL ASCENT COULD YIELD A BROKEN NARROW
COLD-FRONTAL RAINBAND (SQUALL) DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON
FRONTAL PUSH. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF 70-80 KNOTS OF MID LEVEL
FLOW...WE COULD SEE SOME STRONG CONVECTIVE GUSTS ALONG AND
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IF THIS FEATURE MATERIALIZES.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SHARPLY LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. DEEP
LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AS SEVERAL EMBEDDED MID LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE
THROUGH THE UPPER JET AXIS. LOW LEVEL FLOW TRAJECTORIES LOOK POOR
FOR LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS UNTIL LATER TUESDAY...AND EVEN THEN WOULD BE
AIMED ACROSS WESTERN NY.

BOOKBINDER

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS TOWARD THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY...A STRONG
SOUTHEAST COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MATURE QUICKLY AND MOVE NORTH
OR NORTHEAST ALONG THE EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE. MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE STRONGLY IN THIS PERIOD. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A MAJOR STORM
INSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...WHILE THE GFS IS QUICKER...WITH AN
OPEN WAVE GOING OUT TO SEA AND FAILING TO LATCH ONTO THE STRONG
THERMAL GRADIENT. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM COULD HAVE
MAJOR IMPLICATIONS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TRAVEL TO AND
FROM THE EAST COAST...ESPECIALLY THE INTERIOR AIRPORTS AND HIGHWAYS
WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE SIGNIFICANT IF STRONGER MODEL
SOLUTIONS VERIFY.

DO NOT EXPECT ANY IMPACTS ACROSS THE LOCAL CWA...BUT GIVEN THE HIGH
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS POTENTIAL STORM...FOLKS TRAVELING TO
OR FROM THE EAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR FORECASTS.

OTHERWISE...A PERIOD OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
FOR TUESDAY AND CONTINUE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK...INCLUDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. PRESENTLY DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A PROGRESSIVE
CLIPPER-LIKE WAVE COULD BRING A BRIEF BOUT OF SNOW TO THE REGION
THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY.

BOOKBINDER

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH LIGHT SRLY SFC WINDS. AS A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED WITH INCREASING SERLY FLOW. EXPECTING MVFR RESTRICTIONS
LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH WARM FRONT RAIN...SOME DROPS TO
IFR ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR THE NRN TERMINALS. GUSTY SRLY WINDS
EXPECTED TO THEN PERSIST INTO MON.
TAX

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231147
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
647 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMING TREND CONTINUES TODAY...BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN TONIGHT. WINDY AND WARM MONDAY...BEFORE
TURNING SHARPLY COLDER LATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TEMPS THIS MORNING HAVE LARGELY STAGNATED WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER AND AT LEAST SOME SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW. READINGS COMMONLY IN
THE MID 40S ARE A FAR CRY FROM 24 HRS AGO WHERE WE HAD MID TO LOW
TEENS.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK WAVE PRODUCING RAIN SHOWERS
ALONG OUR NWRN PERIPHERY. WITH H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS FROM
CURRENTLY 240DEG...EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE ITS TRACK
ALONG THE NRN 1/3 OF THE CWA. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER INTENSIFYING SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.
EXPECTING DAYTIME HIGHS TO RANGE ABOUT 8-10F ABOVE AVERAGE.

A DEEPENING LOW PUSHES OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS TONIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES BY MON MORNING. AS
THE LOW MOVES UP THE MS VALLEY IT WILL GATHER COPIOUS GULF
MOISTURE THAT WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH A
WARM FRONT. STRONG SE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC...IN THE FORM OF A
60+ KT H85 JET...WILL SET UP DOWNSLOPING FROM THE RIDGES AND
COULD DELAY THE ONSET OF RAIN BY AN HOUR OR TWO. BY 03Z
MON...HOWEVER...RAINSHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA AS THE LOW PIVOTS NORTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH THE
STOUT H85 JET PERSISTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE RIDGES BETWEEN
00-06Z...THE BL SHOULD DECOUPLE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE HIGHEST WINDS
ALOFT. EXPECTING TO SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE 20-30KT
RANGE...BUT WILL NOT BE ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT QUICKLY THROUGH THE CWA EARLY MONDAY
MORNING IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SURGING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN ONTARIO. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND ATTENDANT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD RAPIDLY END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND 12Z AS
PSEUDO-CAPPED WARM SECTOR AIRMASS SPREADS INTO THE AREA. WITH THE
LARGE SCALE MOISTURE SURGE...COULD SEE SOME DRIZZLE OR SPOTTY
SHOWERS EARLY...BUT OTHERWISE DEEP MECHANICAL MIXING SHOULD PROMOTE
AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE CWA BY MID-LATE MORNING. BEST
CHANCE FOR SUNSHINE (AND LONGEST WARM SECTOR DURATION) WILL BE EAST
OF A ZANESVILLE TO NEW CASTLE LINE...WHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP
OUT AT OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES UNDER GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THAT WILL USHER
IN SOME SEASONABLY HUMID AIR AS WELL.

MODELS LARGELY AGREE WITH THE DEPICTION OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN 19-23Z...SIGNALING THE
ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT. EVEN IF WE POKE INTO
THE 60S...SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY LOOKS RATHER MEAGER GIVEN MODEST
LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THUNDER CHANCES LOOK
LOW...BUT STRONG FRONTAL ASCENT COULD YIELD A BROKEN NARROW
COLD-FRONTAL RAINBAND (SQUALL) DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON
FRONTAL PUSH. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF 70-80 KNOTS OF MID LEVEL
FLOW...WE COULD SEE SOME STRONG CONVECTIVE GUSTS ALONG AND
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IF THIS FEATURE MATERIALIZES.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SHARPLY LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. DEEP
LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AS SEVERAL EMBEDDED MID LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE
THROUGH THE UPPER JET AXIS. LOW LEVEL FLOW TRAJECTORIES LOOK POOR
FOR LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS UNTIL LATER TUESDAY...AND EVEN THEN WOULD BE
AIMED ACROSS WESTERN NY.

BOOKBINDER

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS TOWARD THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY...A STRONG
SOUTHEAST COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MATURE QUICKLY AND MOVE NORTH
OR NORTHEAST ALONG THE EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE. MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE STRONGLY IN THIS PERIOD. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A MAJOR STORM
INSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...WHILE THE GFS IS QUICKER...WITH AN
OPEN WAVE GOING OUT TO SEA AND FAILING TO LATCH ONTO THE STRONG
THERMAL GRADIENT. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM COULD HAVE
MAJOR IMPLICATIONS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TRAVEL TO AND
FROM THE EAST COAST...ESPECIALLY THE INTERIOR AIRPORTS AND HIGHWAYS
WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE SIGNIFICANT IF STRONGER MODEL
SOLUTIONS VERIFY.

DO NOT EXPECT ANY IMPACTS ACROSS THE LOCAL CWA...BUT GIVEN THE HIGH
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS POTENTIAL STORM...FOLKS TRAVELING TO
OR FROM THE EAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR FORECASTS.

OTHERWISE...A PERIOD OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
FOR TUESDAY AND CONTINUE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK...INCLUDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. PRESENTLY DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A PROGRESSIVE
CLIPPER-LIKE WAVE COULD BRING A BRIEF BOUT OF SNOW TO THE REGION
THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY.

BOOKBINDER

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH LIGHT SRLY SFC WINDS. AS A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED WITH INCREASING SERLY FLOW. EXPECTING MVFR RESTRICTIONS
LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH WARM FRONT RAIN...SOME DROPS TO
IFR ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR THE NRN TERMINALS. GUSTY SRLY WINDS
EXPECTED TO THEN PERSIST INTO MON.
TAX

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 231141
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
641 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE EAST
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HI PRES NOW OFF THE CST...WILL CONT TO SLO DRIFT E AWAY FM THE
CST THROUGH TDA. CLOUDS CONT TO INCRS...THICKEN...AND LWR FM THE
SW AS GULF COAST MOISTURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFT NE
THROUGH THE SE CONUS...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. XPCG MUCH OF THE DAY TO BE DRY...BUT
SOME RAIN SHOULD ARRIVE IN FAR SW PORTIONS OF LATE IN THE DAY.
WILL CONT W/ INCRSG POPS TO 50-60% POPS SW LATE IN THE DAY...W/
RIBBON OF 30-40% POP FROM THE NW PIEDMONT THROUGH NE NC. HI TEMPS
RANGING FM THE M50S NW TO L60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WILL CROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TNGT. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE (PWTRS INCRSG TO 1.5 TO
2 IN 00-06Z/24 PER 00Z/23 GFS) WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DUE TO A
STRONG NEARLY 70KT LLJ. POPS FOR RAIN DURING THE 12HR PERIOD TNGT
WILL CONT AT 100%. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
COASTAL NE NC (NOT READY TO ADD TO OTHER AREAS - ESP ERN VA/LWR SE
MD BUT WOULDN`T RULE IT OUT)...AND SPC HAS OUTLINED THAT AREA
(CSTL NE NC) IN SLGT CHC SVR. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
6HR PRESSURE FALLS OF -6MB TO -10MB GFS WILL RESULT IN
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE COAST.
GUSTS FROM THE SSE DIRECTION OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. LO
TEMPS TNGT SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 50S...WITH READINGS LIKELY TO
RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG FORCING AND SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
SHOULD RESULT IN A ~6HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAIN TNGT...WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS AVERAGING 0.5 TO 0.75 IN
N/CNTRL AND 1.00-1.25 IN NR THE CST (AND NE NC).

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION BY 12Z/25...W/ A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE FAR WRN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUE. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING...WITH A GUSTY SW WIND
DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S (SEE THE
THE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS). WILL LIMIT ANY POPS TO FAR
ESE AREAS OF FA AS 00Z/23 NAM RMNS OUTLIER IN LINGERING MOISTURE
ACRS THOSE LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS XPCD INLAND...WITH PSBL CLOUDS LINGERING RIGHT ALG THE
COAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TUE. HIGHS TUE
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER MORNING
LOWS FROM THE MID 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z/23 RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF COMING MORE INTO LINE WRT PTNTL
LO PRES DEVELOPING ALG STALLED FNTL BNDRY NR THE SE CONUS CST LT
TUE/TUE NGT...THEN TRACKING NNE ALG THE CST WED INTO WED NGT. A
BUSY PD OF TRAVEL MIDWEEK INCRSLY LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY
RA...AND AS PTNTL CSTL STM WINDS DOWN (LT WED/WED NGT)...MDL TEMP
PROFILES SUGGEST PSBL RA ENDING AS WET SN INLAND. HAVE NUDGED POPS
UP TO 70-80% E PORTION W...40-60% INLAND ON WED.

PCPN/MOIST THEN MOVES E OF THE AREA AND OFF THE CST LATER WED
WED NGT...WITH POPS DIMINISHING FM W TO E. A MAINLY DRY FRONT
SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO EARLY FRI MORNG. HI PRES WILL
THEN BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI THRU SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE L40S W AND M/U40S E WED...IN THE U40S TO L50S THU...IN THE
M/U40S FRI...AND RANGE THRU THE 40S SAT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LWR 40S WED MORNG...IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S THU AND
FRI MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S SAT MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR TO START OFF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD WITH HI PRES CENTERED OFFSHORE
AND A COMPLEX FRNTAL SYSTM APPROACHING FM THE W. CIGS WILL
DECREASE THRU THE DAY AS A WARM FRNT PUSHES NWRD THRU THE SE
STATES...WITH WINDS BCMG GUSTY OUT OF THE SE LATE IN THE DAY AS
WELL. CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE FM SW TO NE FM MID TO LATE
AFTN...AND AM EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DROP TO IFR AS THE RAIN
OVERSPREADS THE REGION THRU THE NITETIME HRS. WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT
MAY BE PSBL (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST) MON MORNG AS THE SYSTM
DEEPENS OVR THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE PSBL OVR EXTREME
SE VA/NE NC. IMPROVING CONDITIONS INTO TUE AS WEAK HI PRES BLDS
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST UPDATED WITH AN UPGRADE TO GALE WARNING OVR THE OCEAN.
DESPITE WARM AIR OVR COOL WATER TEMPS...WITH A STRONG PRES
GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT AND WEAK LO PRES
DEVELOPMENT OVR NRN VA...AND LATEST NAM12 PROGGING 925 MB WINDS
~75 KT...THINK THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW HRS OF WINDS AOA
34 KT OVR THE OCEAN TNGT. SEAS WILL REACH 6-8 FT. GUSTS MAY COME
CLOSE TO GALE FORCE OVR THE BAY AS WELL (AT LEAST AT ELEVATED
SITES) WHERE STRONG SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. ALSO
MAINTAINED THE SCA HEADLINES FOR THE OTHER WTRS. THE GALE WARNING
ENDS LATE MON MORNING...BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AS GUSTS COULD
CONTINUE IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE THRU THE AFTN HRS. THE SCA
HEADLINES ALL END DURING THE DAY MON AS WINDS DECREASE JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE WTRS LATE MON NGT/TUE MORNG.
IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS THEN INTO TUE WITH HI PRES OVR THE
AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ633-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632.
     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...ALB/TMG
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 231141
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
641 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE EAST
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HI PRES NOW OFF THE CST...WILL CONT TO SLO DRIFT E AWAY FM THE
CST THROUGH TDA. CLOUDS CONT TO INCRS...THICKEN...AND LWR FM THE
SW AS GULF COAST MOISTURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFT NE
THROUGH THE SE CONUS...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. XPCG MUCH OF THE DAY TO BE DRY...BUT
SOME RAIN SHOULD ARRIVE IN FAR SW PORTIONS OF LATE IN THE DAY.
WILL CONT W/ INCRSG POPS TO 50-60% POPS SW LATE IN THE DAY...W/
RIBBON OF 30-40% POP FROM THE NW PIEDMONT THROUGH NE NC. HI TEMPS
RANGING FM THE M50S NW TO L60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WILL CROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TNGT. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE (PWTRS INCRSG TO 1.5 TO
2 IN 00-06Z/24 PER 00Z/23 GFS) WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DUE TO A
STRONG NEARLY 70KT LLJ. POPS FOR RAIN DURING THE 12HR PERIOD TNGT
WILL CONT AT 100%. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
COASTAL NE NC (NOT READY TO ADD TO OTHER AREAS - ESP ERN VA/LWR SE
MD BUT WOULDN`T RULE IT OUT)...AND SPC HAS OUTLINED THAT AREA
(CSTL NE NC) IN SLGT CHC SVR. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
6HR PRESSURE FALLS OF -6MB TO -10MB GFS WILL RESULT IN
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE COAST.
GUSTS FROM THE SSE DIRECTION OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. LO
TEMPS TNGT SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 50S...WITH READINGS LIKELY TO
RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG FORCING AND SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
SHOULD RESULT IN A ~6HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAIN TNGT...WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS AVERAGING 0.5 TO 0.75 IN
N/CNTRL AND 1.00-1.25 IN NR THE CST (AND NE NC).

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION BY 12Z/25...W/ A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE FAR WRN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUE. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING...WITH A GUSTY SW WIND
DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S (SEE THE
THE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS). WILL LIMIT ANY POPS TO FAR
ESE AREAS OF FA AS 00Z/23 NAM RMNS OUTLIER IN LINGERING MOISTURE
ACRS THOSE LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS XPCD INLAND...WITH PSBL CLOUDS LINGERING RIGHT ALG THE
COAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TUE. HIGHS TUE
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER MORNING
LOWS FROM THE MID 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z/23 RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF COMING MORE INTO LINE WRT PTNTL
LO PRES DEVELOPING ALG STALLED FNTL BNDRY NR THE SE CONUS CST LT
TUE/TUE NGT...THEN TRACKING NNE ALG THE CST WED INTO WED NGT. A
BUSY PD OF TRAVEL MIDWEEK INCRSLY LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY
RA...AND AS PTNTL CSTL STM WINDS DOWN (LT WED/WED NGT)...MDL TEMP
PROFILES SUGGEST PSBL RA ENDING AS WET SN INLAND. HAVE NUDGED POPS
UP TO 70-80% E PORTION W...40-60% INLAND ON WED.

PCPN/MOIST THEN MOVES E OF THE AREA AND OFF THE CST LATER WED
WED NGT...WITH POPS DIMINISHING FM W TO E. A MAINLY DRY FRONT
SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO EARLY FRI MORNG. HI PRES WILL
THEN BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI THRU SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE L40S W AND M/U40S E WED...IN THE U40S TO L50S THU...IN THE
M/U40S FRI...AND RANGE THRU THE 40S SAT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LWR 40S WED MORNG...IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S THU AND
FRI MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S SAT MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR TO START OFF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD WITH HI PRES CENTERED OFFSHORE
AND A COMPLEX FRNTAL SYSTM APPROACHING FM THE W. CIGS WILL
DECREASE THRU THE DAY AS A WARM FRNT PUSHES NWRD THRU THE SE
STATES...WITH WINDS BCMG GUSTY OUT OF THE SE LATE IN THE DAY AS
WELL. CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE FM SW TO NE FM MID TO LATE
AFTN...AND AM EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DROP TO IFR AS THE RAIN
OVERSPREADS THE REGION THRU THE NITETIME HRS. WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT
MAY BE PSBL (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST) MON MORNG AS THE SYSTM
DEEPENS OVR THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE PSBL OVR EXTREME
SE VA/NE NC. IMPROVING CONDITIONS INTO TUE AS WEAK HI PRES BLDS
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST UPDATED WITH AN UPGRADE TO GALE WARNING OVR THE OCEAN.
DESPITE WARM AIR OVR COOL WATER TEMPS...WITH A STRONG PRES
GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT AND WEAK LO PRES
DEVELOPMENT OVR NRN VA...AND LATEST NAM12 PROGGING 925 MB WINDS
~75 KT...THINK THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW HRS OF WINDS AOA
34 KT OVR THE OCEAN TNGT. SEAS WILL REACH 6-8 FT. GUSTS MAY COME
CLOSE TO GALE FORCE OVR THE BAY AS WELL (AT LEAST AT ELEVATED
SITES) WHERE STRONG SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. ALSO
MAINTAINED THE SCA HEADLINES FOR THE OTHER WTRS. THE GALE WARNING
ENDS LATE MON MORNING...BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AS GUSTS COULD
CONTINUE IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE THRU THE AFTN HRS. THE SCA
HEADLINES ALL END DURING THE DAY MON AS WINDS DECREASE JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE WTRS LATE MON NGT/TUE MORNG.
IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS THEN INTO TUE WITH HI PRES OVR THE
AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ633-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632.
     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...ALB/TMG
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 230914 CCA
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
411 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW WILL LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY INTO TOMORROW. AS IT DOES SO, FIRST A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT, THEN A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATER TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM
WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND BY THANKSGIVING. IN ITS WAKE, A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRES WILL MOVE EWD AND OFF THE COAST TODAY.  AS IT DOES, SWLY
FLOW WILL INCREASE AND EXPECT A MUCH WARMER DAY AS HIGH MAKE IT INTO
THE 50S OVER MOST OF THE AREA.  CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BY LATE IN
THE DAY.

LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL MOVE NEWD DURG THE DAY,
BUT SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH WWD TO KEEP ANY PRECIP AWAY FROM THE
REGION THOUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD THE GRTLKS TONIGHT AND BRING
ITS ASSOCD WMFNT THRU ERLY AND A MARKED INCREASE IN SWLY FLOW.
THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
POTENT LLJ.  OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL NOT DROP MUCH IN RESPONSE
TO THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS AND THE SWLY WIND.   PRECIP CHCS
WILL INCREASE THRU THE NIGHT.  DURG THE EVE THE BEST CHCS WILL BE S
AND W WITH PRECIP EVERYWHERE AND HIGH POPS DURG THE OVERNIGHT AND
ERLY MRNG HOURS.  RAIN COULD BE HVY AT TIMES AND SOME THUNDER CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY S AND E.  QPF VALUES WILL GENLY BE
BETWEEN 1/2 AND 3/4 OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.  WITH
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE ALL OF THE PRECIP
THAT FALLS WILL BE IN THE LIQUID FORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BIG STORY IS THE WEDNESDAY COASTAL SYSTEM...BUT BEFORE WE GET
AHEAD OF OURSELVES, THERE ARE A FEW THINGS TO TALK ABOUT FOR
MONDAY.

HARD TO BELIEVE WE COULD GO FROM A RECORD LOW AT ALLENTOWN
YESTERDAY TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS JUST TWO DAYS LATER, BUT THAT IS
WHAT IS LOOKING LIKE IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. AS MENTIONED
IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION, THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY IN
THE DAY. ALSO, AFTER SUNRISE, THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ABOVE THE STABLE MARINE LAYER ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COASTS IN DE AND SOUTHERN NJ. THUS, CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF
THUNDER. RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS, WELL AHEAD OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT...MOVING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY
NIGHT. THEN TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES LOWER AS COMPARED TO MONDAY, BUT NEAR NORMALS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE PERIOD EVERYONE IS TALKING
ABOUT. STILL LOOKING AT A COASTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST EARLY ON WEDNESDAY THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST, AND WILL
BE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES MOST NOTABLY WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW,
THOUGH THE GAP IS CLOSING BETWEEN THE ECMWF TRACK (STILL THE
FURTHEST WEST) AND THE CMC TRACK (STILL THE FURTHEST EAST), WITH
THE GFS IN A COMFORTABLE MIDDLE GROUND. AS FAR AS PRECIP CHANCES,
IT LOOKS VERY LIKELY THAT AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF THE I95 CORRIDOR
WILL SEE PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR, THE CHANCE
IS LESS, THOUGH STILL QUITE HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS EVEN THE MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD GFS SOLUTION SHOWS THE PRECIP EXTENDING WEST OF THE POCONOS.

PRECIP TYPE IS CONSIDERABLY MORE UNCERTAIN. THE ECMWF DEPICTS A
MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION,
PRODUCING A ROBUST WARM LAYER WHICH WOULD MEAN VERY FEW ICE
CRYSTALS ALOFT. HOWEVER, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE POCONOS, THE ECMWF KEEPS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING, SO JUST A COLD RAIN FOR MOST OF THE REGION WHILE THERE
IS A SLIM CHANCE OF FREEZING PRECIP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
POCONOS. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND, HAS THE JET, AND CONSEQUENTLY
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE OCEAN, RESULTING IN EITHER
ALL RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH ALL SNOW
POSSIBLE IN THE POCONOS. WITH EITHER SOLUTION, THE CHANCES OF
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THE DAY SEEM SMALL (WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE POCONOS).

WHAT COULD BE THE BIGGER ISSUE IS IF OR HOW LONG THE PRECIP LINGERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HAS PRECIP
RAPIDLY MOVING OUT BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS
SOLUTION, WHILE MUCH OF THE REGION COULD SEE A PERIOD OF ALL SNOW
AFTER SUNSET, THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
WOULD BE BRIEF. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND, LINGERS PRECIP IN THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, BUT KEEPS THE EASTERN HALF THE
REGION ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALL THAT TO SAY THAT
WHILE PRECIPITATION LOOKS VERY LIKELY IN THE WEDNESDAY TO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD, THE CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING
SNOW FOR MOST OF THE REGION IS QUITE SMALL.

ONCE THE PRECIP CLEARS OUT, THANKSGIVING LOOKS TO BE PLEASANT,
ALBEIT CHILLY WITH HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IN THE
WAKE OF THE COASTAL LOW, A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS SETTLES IN
OVER THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK KEEPING HIGHS IN THE
30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TO START THEN DETERIORATING CONDS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE EWD.  AS IT DOES SWLY FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN ACRS THE AREA.  LOW PRES WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACRS THE SRN
PLAINS AND MOVE TO NR THE GRTLKS BY MON MRNG.  THE ASSOCD WMFNT WITH
THIS LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THE WIND SHUD BECOME MORE
SELY AND CUD GUST IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE.  RAIN WILL DEVELOP FROM SW TO
NE DURG THE EVE HOURS AND OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA, PSBLY BECOMING
HEAVY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT.  A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
OVER THE DELMARVA OR SERN NJ.

CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR FROM EVENING
ONWARD AND SOME LIFR IS PSBL THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
FORECAST IT ATTM.

WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, LLWS IS
PSBL IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS CONTINUING THRU THE MRNG.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MVFR, AND LOCALIZED IFR CEILINGS, WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE -RA SLOWLY MOVES OUT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY BRING MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO RA (POSSIBLY RASN AT TIMES) FOR
THE REGION. IN ADDITION, EXPECT PERSISTENT NORTHERLY OR
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS FOR GENERALLY THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS CONTINUE. IN ADDITION, IF
PRECIPITATION LINGERS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT, COULD SEE -SN AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES BECAUSE OF IT.

THANKSGIVING...CONDITIONS SLOWLY RETURN TO VFR AND WINDS SHIFT TO
WESTERLY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FOLLOWING CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE MARINE HEADLINES...BASED ON
THE LATEST OBS, THE SCA THRU THIS MRNG HAS BEEN DROPPED.  ALSO THE
GALE WATCH FOR TONIGHT HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING.  SEAS
AND WIND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF  LOW PRESSURE MOVG
FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE GRTLKS.  THE ASSOCD WMFNT WILL MOVE THRU
TONIGHT AND RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...GALE CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR GENERALLY THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY. THEN WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE
BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE IN THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY
ABOVE SCA CRITERIA.

THANKSGIVING...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW SCA
CRITERIA EARLY IN THE DAY AND REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...DRAG/KLINE








000
FXUS61 KPHI 230914 CCA
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
411 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW WILL LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY INTO TOMORROW. AS IT DOES SO, FIRST A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT, THEN A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATER TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM
WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND BY THANKSGIVING. IN ITS WAKE, A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRES WILL MOVE EWD AND OFF THE COAST TODAY.  AS IT DOES, SWLY
FLOW WILL INCREASE AND EXPECT A MUCH WARMER DAY AS HIGH MAKE IT INTO
THE 50S OVER MOST OF THE AREA.  CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BY LATE IN
THE DAY.

LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL MOVE NEWD DURG THE DAY,
BUT SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH WWD TO KEEP ANY PRECIP AWAY FROM THE
REGION THOUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD THE GRTLKS TONIGHT AND BRING
ITS ASSOCD WMFNT THRU ERLY AND A MARKED INCREASE IN SWLY FLOW.
THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
POTENT LLJ.  OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL NOT DROP MUCH IN RESPONSE
TO THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS AND THE SWLY WIND.   PRECIP CHCS
WILL INCREASE THRU THE NIGHT.  DURG THE EVE THE BEST CHCS WILL BE S
AND W WITH PRECIP EVERYWHERE AND HIGH POPS DURG THE OVERNIGHT AND
ERLY MRNG HOURS.  RAIN COULD BE HVY AT TIMES AND SOME THUNDER CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY S AND E.  QPF VALUES WILL GENLY BE
BETWEEN 1/2 AND 3/4 OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.  WITH
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE ALL OF THE PRECIP
THAT FALLS WILL BE IN THE LIQUID FORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BIG STORY IS THE WEDNESDAY COASTAL SYSTEM...BUT BEFORE WE GET
AHEAD OF OURSELVES, THERE ARE A FEW THINGS TO TALK ABOUT FOR
MONDAY.

HARD TO BELIEVE WE COULD GO FROM A RECORD LOW AT ALLENTOWN
YESTERDAY TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS JUST TWO DAYS LATER, BUT THAT IS
WHAT IS LOOKING LIKE IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. AS MENTIONED
IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION, THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY IN
THE DAY. ALSO, AFTER SUNRISE, THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ABOVE THE STABLE MARINE LAYER ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COASTS IN DE AND SOUTHERN NJ. THUS, CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF
THUNDER. RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS, WELL AHEAD OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT...MOVING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY
NIGHT. THEN TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES LOWER AS COMPARED TO MONDAY, BUT NEAR NORMALS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE PERIOD EVERYONE IS TALKING
ABOUT. STILL LOOKING AT A COASTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST EARLY ON WEDNESDAY THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST, AND WILL
BE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES MOST NOTABLY WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW,
THOUGH THE GAP IS CLOSING BETWEEN THE ECMWF TRACK (STILL THE
FURTHEST WEST) AND THE CMC TRACK (STILL THE FURTHEST EAST), WITH
THE GFS IN A COMFORTABLE MIDDLE GROUND. AS FAR AS PRECIP CHANCES,
IT LOOKS VERY LIKELY THAT AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF THE I95 CORRIDOR
WILL SEE PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR, THE CHANCE
IS LESS, THOUGH STILL QUITE HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS EVEN THE MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD GFS SOLUTION SHOWS THE PRECIP EXTENDING WEST OF THE POCONOS.

PRECIP TYPE IS CONSIDERABLY MORE UNCERTAIN. THE ECMWF DEPICTS A
MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION,
PRODUCING A ROBUST WARM LAYER WHICH WOULD MEAN VERY FEW ICE
CRYSTALS ALOFT. HOWEVER, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE POCONOS, THE ECMWF KEEPS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING, SO JUST A COLD RAIN FOR MOST OF THE REGION WHILE THERE
IS A SLIM CHANCE OF FREEZING PRECIP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
POCONOS. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND, HAS THE JET, AND CONSEQUENTLY
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE OCEAN, RESULTING IN EITHER
ALL RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH ALL SNOW
POSSIBLE IN THE POCONOS. WITH EITHER SOLUTION, THE CHANCES OF
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THE DAY SEEM SMALL (WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE POCONOS).

WHAT COULD BE THE BIGGER ISSUE IS IF OR HOW LONG THE PRECIP LINGERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HAS PRECIP
RAPIDLY MOVING OUT BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS
SOLUTION, WHILE MUCH OF THE REGION COULD SEE A PERIOD OF ALL SNOW
AFTER SUNSET, THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
WOULD BE BRIEF. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND, LINGERS PRECIP IN THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, BUT KEEPS THE EASTERN HALF THE
REGION ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALL THAT TO SAY THAT
WHILE PRECIPITATION LOOKS VERY LIKELY IN THE WEDNESDAY TO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD, THE CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING
SNOW FOR MOST OF THE REGION IS QUITE SMALL.

ONCE THE PRECIP CLEARS OUT, THANKSGIVING LOOKS TO BE PLEASANT,
ALBEIT CHILLY WITH HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IN THE
WAKE OF THE COASTAL LOW, A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS SETTLES IN
OVER THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK KEEPING HIGHS IN THE
30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TO START THEN DETERIORATING CONDS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE EWD.  AS IT DOES SWLY FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN ACRS THE AREA.  LOW PRES WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACRS THE SRN
PLAINS AND MOVE TO NR THE GRTLKS BY MON MRNG.  THE ASSOCD WMFNT WITH
THIS LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THE WIND SHUD BECOME MORE
SELY AND CUD GUST IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE.  RAIN WILL DEVELOP FROM SW TO
NE DURG THE EVE HOURS AND OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA, PSBLY BECOMING
HEAVY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT.  A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
OVER THE DELMARVA OR SERN NJ.

CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR FROM EVENING
ONWARD AND SOME LIFR IS PSBL THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
FORECAST IT ATTM.

WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, LLWS IS
PSBL IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS CONTINUING THRU THE MRNG.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MVFR, AND LOCALIZED IFR CEILINGS, WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE -RA SLOWLY MOVES OUT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY BRING MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO RA (POSSIBLY RASN AT TIMES) FOR
THE REGION. IN ADDITION, EXPECT PERSISTENT NORTHERLY OR
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS FOR GENERALLY THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS CONTINUE. IN ADDITION, IF
PRECIPITATION LINGERS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT, COULD SEE -SN AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES BECAUSE OF IT.

THANKSGIVING...CONDITIONS SLOWLY RETURN TO VFR AND WINDS SHIFT TO
WESTERLY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FOLLOWING CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE MARINE HEADLINES...BASED ON
THE LATEST OBS, THE SCA THRU THIS MRNG HAS BEEN DROPPED.  ALSO THE
GALE WATCH FOR TONIGHT HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING.  SEAS
AND WIND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF  LOW PRESSURE MOVG
FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE GRTLKS.  THE ASSOCD WMFNT WILL MOVE THRU
TONIGHT AND RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...GALE CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR GENERALLY THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY. THEN WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE
BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE IN THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY
ABOVE SCA CRITERIA.

THANKSGIVING...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW SCA
CRITERIA EARLY IN THE DAY AND REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...DRAG/KLINE








000
FXUS61 KPHI 230914 CCA
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
411 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW WILL LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY INTO TOMORROW. AS IT DOES SO, FIRST A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT, THEN A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATER TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM
WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND BY THANKSGIVING. IN ITS WAKE, A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRES WILL MOVE EWD AND OFF THE COAST TODAY.  AS IT DOES, SWLY
FLOW WILL INCREASE AND EXPECT A MUCH WARMER DAY AS HIGH MAKE IT INTO
THE 50S OVER MOST OF THE AREA.  CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BY LATE IN
THE DAY.

LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL MOVE NEWD DURG THE DAY,
BUT SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH WWD TO KEEP ANY PRECIP AWAY FROM THE
REGION THOUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD THE GRTLKS TONIGHT AND BRING
ITS ASSOCD WMFNT THRU ERLY AND A MARKED INCREASE IN SWLY FLOW.
THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
POTENT LLJ.  OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL NOT DROP MUCH IN RESPONSE
TO THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS AND THE SWLY WIND.   PRECIP CHCS
WILL INCREASE THRU THE NIGHT.  DURG THE EVE THE BEST CHCS WILL BE S
AND W WITH PRECIP EVERYWHERE AND HIGH POPS DURG THE OVERNIGHT AND
ERLY MRNG HOURS.  RAIN COULD BE HVY AT TIMES AND SOME THUNDER CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY S AND E.  QPF VALUES WILL GENLY BE
BETWEEN 1/2 AND 3/4 OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.  WITH
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE ALL OF THE PRECIP
THAT FALLS WILL BE IN THE LIQUID FORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BIG STORY IS THE WEDNESDAY COASTAL SYSTEM...BUT BEFORE WE GET
AHEAD OF OURSELVES, THERE ARE A FEW THINGS TO TALK ABOUT FOR
MONDAY.

HARD TO BELIEVE WE COULD GO FROM A RECORD LOW AT ALLENTOWN
YESTERDAY TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS JUST TWO DAYS LATER, BUT THAT IS
WHAT IS LOOKING LIKE IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. AS MENTIONED
IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION, THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY IN
THE DAY. ALSO, AFTER SUNRISE, THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ABOVE THE STABLE MARINE LAYER ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COASTS IN DE AND SOUTHERN NJ. THUS, CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF
THUNDER. RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS, WELL AHEAD OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT...MOVING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY
NIGHT. THEN TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES LOWER AS COMPARED TO MONDAY, BUT NEAR NORMALS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE PERIOD EVERYONE IS TALKING
ABOUT. STILL LOOKING AT A COASTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST EARLY ON WEDNESDAY THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST, AND WILL
BE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES MOST NOTABLY WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW,
THOUGH THE GAP IS CLOSING BETWEEN THE ECMWF TRACK (STILL THE
FURTHEST WEST) AND THE CMC TRACK (STILL THE FURTHEST EAST), WITH
THE GFS IN A COMFORTABLE MIDDLE GROUND. AS FAR AS PRECIP CHANCES,
IT LOOKS VERY LIKELY THAT AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF THE I95 CORRIDOR
WILL SEE PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR, THE CHANCE
IS LESS, THOUGH STILL QUITE HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS EVEN THE MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD GFS SOLUTION SHOWS THE PRECIP EXTENDING WEST OF THE POCONOS.

PRECIP TYPE IS CONSIDERABLY MORE UNCERTAIN. THE ECMWF DEPICTS A
MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION,
PRODUCING A ROBUST WARM LAYER WHICH WOULD MEAN VERY FEW ICE
CRYSTALS ALOFT. HOWEVER, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE POCONOS, THE ECMWF KEEPS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING, SO JUST A COLD RAIN FOR MOST OF THE REGION WHILE THERE
IS A SLIM CHANCE OF FREEZING PRECIP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
POCONOS. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND, HAS THE JET, AND CONSEQUENTLY
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE OCEAN, RESULTING IN EITHER
ALL RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH ALL SNOW
POSSIBLE IN THE POCONOS. WITH EITHER SOLUTION, THE CHANCES OF
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THE DAY SEEM SMALL (WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE POCONOS).

WHAT COULD BE THE BIGGER ISSUE IS IF OR HOW LONG THE PRECIP LINGERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HAS PRECIP
RAPIDLY MOVING OUT BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS
SOLUTION, WHILE MUCH OF THE REGION COULD SEE A PERIOD OF ALL SNOW
AFTER SUNSET, THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
WOULD BE BRIEF. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND, LINGERS PRECIP IN THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, BUT KEEPS THE EASTERN HALF THE
REGION ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALL THAT TO SAY THAT
WHILE PRECIPITATION LOOKS VERY LIKELY IN THE WEDNESDAY TO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD, THE CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING
SNOW FOR MOST OF THE REGION IS QUITE SMALL.

ONCE THE PRECIP CLEARS OUT, THANKSGIVING LOOKS TO BE PLEASANT,
ALBEIT CHILLY WITH HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IN THE
WAKE OF THE COASTAL LOW, A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS SETTLES IN
OVER THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK KEEPING HIGHS IN THE
30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TO START THEN DETERIORATING CONDS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE EWD.  AS IT DOES SWLY FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN ACRS THE AREA.  LOW PRES WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACRS THE SRN
PLAINS AND MOVE TO NR THE GRTLKS BY MON MRNG.  THE ASSOCD WMFNT WITH
THIS LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THE WIND SHUD BECOME MORE
SELY AND CUD GUST IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE.  RAIN WILL DEVELOP FROM SW TO
NE DURG THE EVE HOURS AND OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA, PSBLY BECOMING
HEAVY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT.  A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
OVER THE DELMARVA OR SERN NJ.

CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR FROM EVENING
ONWARD AND SOME LIFR IS PSBL THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
FORECAST IT ATTM.

WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, LLWS IS
PSBL IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS CONTINUING THRU THE MRNG.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MVFR, AND LOCALIZED IFR CEILINGS, WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE -RA SLOWLY MOVES OUT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY BRING MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO RA (POSSIBLY RASN AT TIMES) FOR
THE REGION. IN ADDITION, EXPECT PERSISTENT NORTHERLY OR
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS FOR GENERALLY THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS CONTINUE. IN ADDITION, IF
PRECIPITATION LINGERS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT, COULD SEE -SN AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES BECAUSE OF IT.

THANKSGIVING...CONDITIONS SLOWLY RETURN TO VFR AND WINDS SHIFT TO
WESTERLY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FOLLOWING CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE MARINE HEADLINES...BASED ON
THE LATEST OBS, THE SCA THRU THIS MRNG HAS BEEN DROPPED.  ALSO THE
GALE WATCH FOR TONIGHT HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING.  SEAS
AND WIND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF  LOW PRESSURE MOVG
FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE GRTLKS.  THE ASSOCD WMFNT WILL MOVE THRU
TONIGHT AND RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...GALE CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR GENERALLY THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY. THEN WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE
BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE IN THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY
ABOVE SCA CRITERIA.

THANKSGIVING...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW SCA
CRITERIA EARLY IN THE DAY AND REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...DRAG/KLINE








000
FXUS61 KPHI 230914 CCA
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
411 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW WILL LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY INTO TOMORROW. AS IT DOES SO, FIRST A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT, THEN A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATER TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM
WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND BY THANKSGIVING. IN ITS WAKE, A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRES WILL MOVE EWD AND OFF THE COAST TODAY.  AS IT DOES, SWLY
FLOW WILL INCREASE AND EXPECT A MUCH WARMER DAY AS HIGH MAKE IT INTO
THE 50S OVER MOST OF THE AREA.  CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BY LATE IN
THE DAY.

LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL MOVE NEWD DURG THE DAY,
BUT SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH WWD TO KEEP ANY PRECIP AWAY FROM THE
REGION THOUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD THE GRTLKS TONIGHT AND BRING
ITS ASSOCD WMFNT THRU ERLY AND A MARKED INCREASE IN SWLY FLOW.
THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
POTENT LLJ.  OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL NOT DROP MUCH IN RESPONSE
TO THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS AND THE SWLY WIND.   PRECIP CHCS
WILL INCREASE THRU THE NIGHT.  DURG THE EVE THE BEST CHCS WILL BE S
AND W WITH PRECIP EVERYWHERE AND HIGH POPS DURG THE OVERNIGHT AND
ERLY MRNG HOURS.  RAIN COULD BE HVY AT TIMES AND SOME THUNDER CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY S AND E.  QPF VALUES WILL GENLY BE
BETWEEN 1/2 AND 3/4 OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.  WITH
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE ALL OF THE PRECIP
THAT FALLS WILL BE IN THE LIQUID FORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BIG STORY IS THE WEDNESDAY COASTAL SYSTEM...BUT BEFORE WE GET
AHEAD OF OURSELVES, THERE ARE A FEW THINGS TO TALK ABOUT FOR
MONDAY.

HARD TO BELIEVE WE COULD GO FROM A RECORD LOW AT ALLENTOWN
YESTERDAY TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS JUST TWO DAYS LATER, BUT THAT IS
WHAT IS LOOKING LIKE IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. AS MENTIONED
IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION, THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY IN
THE DAY. ALSO, AFTER SUNRISE, THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ABOVE THE STABLE MARINE LAYER ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COASTS IN DE AND SOUTHERN NJ. THUS, CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF
THUNDER. RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS, WELL AHEAD OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT...MOVING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY
NIGHT. THEN TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES LOWER AS COMPARED TO MONDAY, BUT NEAR NORMALS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE PERIOD EVERYONE IS TALKING
ABOUT. STILL LOOKING AT A COASTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST EARLY ON WEDNESDAY THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST, AND WILL
BE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES MOST NOTABLY WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW,
THOUGH THE GAP IS CLOSING BETWEEN THE ECMWF TRACK (STILL THE
FURTHEST WEST) AND THE CMC TRACK (STILL THE FURTHEST EAST), WITH
THE GFS IN A COMFORTABLE MIDDLE GROUND. AS FAR AS PRECIP CHANCES,
IT LOOKS VERY LIKELY THAT AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF THE I95 CORRIDOR
WILL SEE PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR, THE CHANCE
IS LESS, THOUGH STILL QUITE HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS EVEN THE MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD GFS SOLUTION SHOWS THE PRECIP EXTENDING WEST OF THE POCONOS.

PRECIP TYPE IS CONSIDERABLY MORE UNCERTAIN. THE ECMWF DEPICTS A
MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION,
PRODUCING A ROBUST WARM LAYER WHICH WOULD MEAN VERY FEW ICE
CRYSTALS ALOFT. HOWEVER, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE POCONOS, THE ECMWF KEEPS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING, SO JUST A COLD RAIN FOR MOST OF THE REGION WHILE THERE
IS A SLIM CHANCE OF FREEZING PRECIP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
POCONOS. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND, HAS THE JET, AND CONSEQUENTLY
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE OCEAN, RESULTING IN EITHER
ALL RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH ALL SNOW
POSSIBLE IN THE POCONOS. WITH EITHER SOLUTION, THE CHANCES OF
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THE DAY SEEM SMALL (WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE POCONOS).

WHAT COULD BE THE BIGGER ISSUE IS IF OR HOW LONG THE PRECIP LINGERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HAS PRECIP
RAPIDLY MOVING OUT BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS
SOLUTION, WHILE MUCH OF THE REGION COULD SEE A PERIOD OF ALL SNOW
AFTER SUNSET, THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
WOULD BE BRIEF. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND, LINGERS PRECIP IN THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, BUT KEEPS THE EASTERN HALF THE
REGION ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALL THAT TO SAY THAT
WHILE PRECIPITATION LOOKS VERY LIKELY IN THE WEDNESDAY TO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD, THE CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING
SNOW FOR MOST OF THE REGION IS QUITE SMALL.

ONCE THE PRECIP CLEARS OUT, THANKSGIVING LOOKS TO BE PLEASANT,
ALBEIT CHILLY WITH HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IN THE
WAKE OF THE COASTAL LOW, A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS SETTLES IN
OVER THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK KEEPING HIGHS IN THE
30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TO START THEN DETERIORATING CONDS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE EWD.  AS IT DOES SWLY FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN ACRS THE AREA.  LOW PRES WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACRS THE SRN
PLAINS AND MOVE TO NR THE GRTLKS BY MON MRNG.  THE ASSOCD WMFNT WITH
THIS LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THE WIND SHUD BECOME MORE
SELY AND CUD GUST IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE.  RAIN WILL DEVELOP FROM SW TO
NE DURG THE EVE HOURS AND OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA, PSBLY BECOMING
HEAVY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT.  A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
OVER THE DELMARVA OR SERN NJ.

CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR FROM EVENING
ONWARD AND SOME LIFR IS PSBL THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
FORECAST IT ATTM.

WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, LLWS IS
PSBL IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS CONTINUING THRU THE MRNG.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MVFR, AND LOCALIZED IFR CEILINGS, WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE -RA SLOWLY MOVES OUT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY BRING MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO RA (POSSIBLY RASN AT TIMES) FOR
THE REGION. IN ADDITION, EXPECT PERSISTENT NORTHERLY OR
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS FOR GENERALLY THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS CONTINUE. IN ADDITION, IF
PRECIPITATION LINGERS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT, COULD SEE -SN AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES BECAUSE OF IT.

THANKSGIVING...CONDITIONS SLOWLY RETURN TO VFR AND WINDS SHIFT TO
WESTERLY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FOLLOWING CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE MARINE HEADLINES...BASED ON
THE LATEST OBS, THE SCA THRU THIS MRNG HAS BEEN DROPPED.  ALSO THE
GALE WATCH FOR TONIGHT HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING.  SEAS
AND WIND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF  LOW PRESSURE MOVG
FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE GRTLKS.  THE ASSOCD WMFNT WILL MOVE THRU
TONIGHT AND RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...GALE CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR GENERALLY THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY. THEN WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE
BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE IN THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY
ABOVE SCA CRITERIA.

THANKSGIVING...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW SCA
CRITERIA EARLY IN THE DAY AND REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...DRAG/KLINE








000
FXUS61 KPHI 230905
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
405 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW WILL LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY INTO TOMORROW. AS IT DOES SO, FIRST A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT, THEN A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATER TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM
WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND BY THANKSGIVING. IN ITS WAKE, A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRES WILL MOVE EWD AND OFF THE COAST TODAY.  AS IT DOES, SWLY
FLOW WILL INCREASE AND EXPECT A MUCH WARMER DAY AS HIGH MAKE IT INTO
THE 50S OVER MOST OF THE AREA.  CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BY LATE IN
THE DAY.

LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL MOVE NEWD DURG THE DAY,
BUT SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH WWD TO KEEP ANY PRECIP AWAY FROM THE
REGION THOUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD THE GRTLKS TONIGHT AND BRING
ITS ASSOCD WMFNT THRU ERLY AND A MARKED INCREASE IN SWLY FLOW.
THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
POTENT LLJ.  OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL NOT DROP MUCH IN RESPONSE
TO THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS AND THE SWLY WIND.   PRECIP CHCS
WILL INCREASE THRU THE NIGHT.  DURG THE EVE THE BEST CHCS WILL BE S
AND W WITH PRECIP EVERYWHERE AND HIGH POPS DURG THE OVERNIGHT AND
ERLY MRNG HOURS.  RAIN COULD BE HVY AT TIMES AND SOME THUNDER CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY S AND E.  QPF VALUES WILL GENLY BE
BETWEEN 1/2 AND 3/4 OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.  WITH
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE ALL OF THE PRECIP
THAT FALLS WILL BE IN THE LIQUID FORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BIG STORY IS THE WEDNESDAY COASTAL SYSTEM...BUT BEFORE WE GET
AHEAD OF OURSELVES, THERE ARE A FEW THINGS TO TALK ABOUT FOR
MONDAY.

HARD TO BELIEVE WE COULD GO FROM A RECORD LOW AT ALLENTOWN
YESTERDAY TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS JUST TWO DAYS LATER, BUT THAT IS
WHAT IS LOOKING LIKE IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. AS MENTIONED
IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION, THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY IN
THE DAY. ALSO, AFTER SUNRISE, THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ABOVE THE STABLE MARINE LAYER ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COASTS IN DE AND SOUTHERN NJ. THUS, CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF
THUNDER. RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS, WELL AHEAD OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT...MOVING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGH HOURS MONDAY
NIGHT. THEN TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES LOWER AS COMPARED TO MONDAY, BUT NEAR NORMALS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE PERIOD EVERYONE IS TALKING
ABOUT. STILL LOOKING AT A COASTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST EARLY ON WEDNESDAY THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST, AND WILL
BE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES MOST NOTABLY WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW,
THOUGH THE GAP IS CLOSING BETWEEN THE ECWMF TRACK (STILL THE
FURTHEST WEST) AND THE CMC TRACK (STILL THE FURTHEST EAST), WITH
THE GFS IN A COMFORTABLE MIDDLE GROUND. AS FAR AS PRECIP CHANCES,
IT LOOKS VERY LIKELY THAT AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF THE I95 CORRIDOR
WILL SEE PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDENSDAY
EVENING. FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR, THE CHANCE
IS LESS, THOUGH STILL QUITE HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS EVEN THE MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD GFS SOLUTION SHOWS THE PRECEIP EXTENDING WEST OF THE POCONOS.

PRECIP TYPE IS CONSIDERABLY MORE UNCERTAIN. THE ECMWF DEPICTS A
MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION,
PRODUCING A ROBUST WARM LAYER WHICH WOULD MEAN VERY FEW ICE
CRYSTALS ALOFT. HOWEVER, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE POCONOS, THE ECMWF KEEPS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING, SO JUST A COLD RAIN FOR MOST OF THE REGION WHILE THERE
IS A SLIM CHANCE OF FREEZING PRECIP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
POCONOS. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND, HAS THE JET, AND CONSEQUENTLY
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE OCEAN, RESULTING IN EITHER
ALL RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH ALL SNOW
POSSIBLE IN THE POCONOS. WITH EITHER SOLUTION, THE CHANCES OF
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THE DAY SEEM SMALL (WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE POCONOS).

WHAT COULD BE THE BIGGER ISSUE IS IF OR HOW LONG THE PRECIP LINGERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HAS PRECIP
RAPIDLY MOVING OUT BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS
SOLUTION, WHILE MUCH OF THE REGION COULD SEE A PERIOD OF ALL SNOW
AFTER SUNSET, THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ACCCUMULATING SNOW
WOULD BE BRIEF. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND, LINGERS PRECIP IN THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, BUT KEEPS THE EASTERN HALF THE
REGION ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALL THAT TO SAY THAT
WHILE PRECIPITATION LOOKS VERY LIKELY IN THE WEDNESDAY TO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD, THE CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING
SNOW FOR MOST OF THE REGION IS QUITE SMALL.

ONCE THE PRECIP CLEARS OUT, THANKSGIVING LOOKS TO BE PLESANT,
ALBEIT CHILLY WITH HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IN THE
WAKE OF THE COASTAL LOW, A CONTENENTAL POLAR AIR MASS SETTLES IN
OVER THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK KEEPING HIGHS IN THE
30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TO START THEN DETERIORATING CONDS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE EWD.  AS IT DOES SWLY FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN ACRS THE AREA.  LOW PRES WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACRS THE SRN
PLAINS AND MOVE TO NR THE GRTLKS BY MON MRNG.  THE ASSOCD WMFNT WITH
THIS LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THE WIND SHUD BECOME MORE
SELY AND CUD GUST IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE.  RAIN WILL DEVELOP FROM SW TO
NE DURG THE EVE HOURS AND OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA, PSBLY BECOMING
HEAVY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT.  A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
OVER THE DELMARVA OR SERN NJ.

CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR FROM EVENING
ONWARD AND SOME LIFR IS PSBL THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
FORECAST IT ATTM.

WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, LLWS IS
PSBL IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS CONTINUING THRU THE MRNG.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MVFR, AND LOCALIZED IFR CEILINGS, WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE -RA SLOWLY MOVES OUT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY BRING MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO RA (POSSIBLY RASN AT TIMES) FOR
THE REGION. IN ADDITION, EXPECT PERSISTENT NORTHERLY OR
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS FOR GENERALLY THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY.

WEDENSDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS CONTINUE. IN ADDITION, IF
PRECIPITATION LINGERS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT, COULD SEE -SN AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES BECAUSE OF IT.

THANKSGIVING...CONDITIONS SLOWLY RETURN TO VFR AND WINDS SHIFT TO
WESTERLY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FOLLOWING CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE MARINE HEADLINES...BASED ON
THE LATEST OBS, THE SCA THRU THIS MRNG HAS BEEN DROPPED.  ALSO THE
GALE WATCH FOR TONIGHT HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING.  SEAS
AND WIND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF  LOW PRESSURE MOVG
FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE GRTLKS.  THE ASSOCD WMFNT WILL MOVE THRU
TONIGHT AND RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...GALE CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR GNERALLY THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY. THEN WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE
BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE IN THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY
ABOVE SCA CRITERIA.

THANKSGIVING...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW SCA
CRITERIA EARLY IN THE DAY AND REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...DRAG/KLINE







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230854
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
354 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE EAST
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HI PRES NOW OFF THE CST...WILL CONT TO SLO DRIFT E AWAY FM THE
CST THROUGH TDA. CLOUDS CONT TO INCRS...THICKEN...AND LWR FM THE
SW AS GULF COAST MOISTURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFT NE
THROUGH THE SE CONUS...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. XPCG MUCH OF THE DAY TO BE DRY...BUT
SOME RAIN SHOULD ARRIVE IN FAR SW PORTIONS OF LATE IN THE DAY.
WILL CONT W/ INCRSG POPS TO 50-60% POPS SW LATE IN THE DAY...W/
RIBBON OF 30-40% POP FROM THE NW PIEDMONT THROUGH NE NC. HI TEMPS
RANGING FM THE M50S NW TO L60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WILL CROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TNGT. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE (PWTRS INCRSG TO 1.5 TO
2 IN 00-06Z/24 PER 00Z/23 GFS) WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DUE TO A
STRONG NEARLY 70KT LLJ. POPS FOR RAIN DURING THE 12HR PERIOD TNGT
WILL CONT AT 100%. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
COASTAL NE NC (NOT READY TO ADD TO OTHER AREAS - ESP ERN VA/LWR SE
MD BUT WOULDN`T RULE IT OUT)...AND SPC HAS OUTLINED THAT AREA
(CSTL NE NC) IN SLGT CHC SVR. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
6HR PRESSURE FALLS OF -6MB TO -10MB GFS WILL RESULT IN
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE COAST.
GUSTS FROM THE SSE DIRECTION OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. LO
TEMPS TNGT SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 50S...WITH READINGS LIKELY TO
RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG FORCING AND SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
SHOULD RESULT IN A ~6HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAIN TNGT...WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS AVERAGING 0.5 TO 0.75 IN
N/CNTRL AND 1.00-1.25 IN NR THE CST (AND NE NC).

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION BY 12Z/25...W/ A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE FAR WRN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUE. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING...WITH A GUSTY SW WIND
DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S (SEE THE
THE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS). WILL LIMIT ANY POPS TO FAR
ESE AREAS OF FA AS 00Z/23 NAM RMNS OUTLIER IN LINGERING MOISTURE
ACRS THOSE LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS XPCD INLAND...WITH PSBL CLOUDS LINGERING RIGHT ALG THE
COAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TUE. HIGHS TUE
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER MORNING
LOWS FROM THE MID 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z/23 RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF COMING MORE INTO LINE WRT PTNTL
LO PRES DEVELOPING ALG STALLED FNTL BNDRY NR THE SE CONUS CST LT
TUE/TUE NGT...THEN TRACKING NNE ALG THE CST WED INTO WED NGT. A
BUSY PD OF TRAVEL MIDWEEK INCRSLY LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY
RA...AND AS PTNTL CSTL STM WINDS DOWN (LT WED/WED NGT)...MDL TEMP
PROFILES SUGGEST PSBL RA ENDING AS WET SN INLAND. HAVE NUDGED POPS
UP TO 70-80% E PORTION W...40-60% INLAND ON WED.

PCPN/MOIST THEN MOVES E OF THE AREA AND OFF THE CST LATER WED
WED NGT...WITH POPS DIMINISHING FM W TO E. A MAINLY DRY FRONT
SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO EARLY FRI MORNG. HI PRES WILL
THEN BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI THRU SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE L40S W AND M/U40S E WED...IN THE U40S TO L50S THU...IN THE
M/U40S FRI...AND RANGE THRU THE 40S SAT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LWR 40S WED MORNG...IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S THU AND
FRI MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S SAT MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONT ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL PERSIST INTO THIS
MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVD OFFSHORE OF VA/NC AND WNDS
AROUND THE HIGH ARE SE-SW OVER THE REGION AND GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 KTS. MEANWHILE...LOTS OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE SE AND GULF STATES
WILL PUSH NORTH INTO THE MID ATL REGION DURING THE DAY.

A MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL HELP FORM A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE SE US AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVES NE OUT OF THE GOMEX
TDA. THIS WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AS A WARM FRONT
SURGES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS (POSSIBLY
LOWER) DUE TO LOWERED CEILINGS AND REDUCED VIS WITH RAIN.
ALSO...WIND GUSTS TO 35KT MAY BE POSSIBLE MON MORNING AS THE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER
NE NC/SE VA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST UPDATED WITH AN UPGRADE TO GALE WARNING OVR THE OCEAN.
DESPITE WARM AIR OVR COOL WATER TEMPS...WITH A STRONG PRES
GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT AND WEAK LO PRES
DEVELOPMENT OVR NRN VA...AND LATEST NAM12 PROGGING 925 MB WINDS
~75 KT...THINK THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW HRS OF WINDS AOA
34 KT OVR THE OCEAN TNGT. SEAS WILL REACH 6-8 FT. GUSTS MAY COME
CLOSE TO GALE FORCE OVR THE BAY AS WELL (AT LEAST AT ELEVATED
SITES) WHERE STRONG SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. ALSO
MAINTAINED THE SCA HEADLINES FOR THE OTHER WTRS. THE GALE WARNING
ENDS LATE MON MORNING...BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AS GUSTS COULD
CONTINUE IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE THRU THE AFTN HRS. THE SCA
HEADLINES ALL END DURING THE DAY MON AS WINDS DECREASE JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE WTRS LATE MON NGT/TUE MORNG.
IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS THEN INTO TUE WITH HI PRES OVR THE
AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ633-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632.
     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...ALB/TMG
AVIATION...MAS/DAP/JEF
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230851
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
351 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. WARMING TREND CONTINUES TODAY...BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN TONIGHT. WINDY AND WARM
MONDAY...BEFORE TURNING SHARPLY COLDER LATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND AT LEAST SOME SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW
RESULTING IN TEMPS PLATEAUING AND IN SOME CASES EVEN COMING UP A
DEGREE OR TWO. READINGS COMMONLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ARE A
FAR CRY FROM 24 HRS AGO WHERE WE HAD MID TO LOW TEENS.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE FIRST WEAK WAVE EXITING OUR NE
COUNTIES WHILE THE NEXT WAVE BEGINS TO STREAM IN FROM OHIO.
WITH H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS FROM CURRENTLY
240DEG...EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO SKIRT ALONG THE NWRN PERIPHERY
OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDDAY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER INTENSIFYING SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.
EXPECTING DAYTIME HIGHS TO RANGE ABOUT 8-10F ABOVE AVERAGE.

A DEEPENING LOW PUSHES OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS TONIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES BY MON MORNING. AS
THE LOW MOVES UP THE MS VALLEY IT WILL GATHER COPIOUS GULF
MOISTURE THAT WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH A
WARM FRONT. STRONG SE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC...IN THE FORM OF A
60+ KT H85 JET...WILL SET UP DOWNSLOPING FROM THE RIDGES AND
COULD DELAY THE ONSET OF RAIN BY AN HOUR OR TWO. BY 03Z
MON...HOWEVER...RAINSHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA AS THE LOW PIVOTS NORTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH THE
STOUT H85 JET PERSISTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE RIDGES BETWEEN
00-06Z...THE BL SHOULD DECOUPLE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE HIGHEST WINDS
ALOFT. EXPECTING TO SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE 20-30KT
RANGE...BUT WILL NOT BE ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND TUESDAY/...

SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT QUICKLY THROUGH THE CWA EARLY MONDAY
MORNING IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SURGING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN ONTARIO. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND ATTENDANT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD RAPIDLY END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND 12Z AS
PSEUDO-CAPPED WARM SECTOR AIRMASS SPREADS INTO THE AREA. WITH THE
LARGE SCALE MOISTURE SURGE...COULD SEE SOME DRIZZLE OR SPOTTY
SHOWERS EARLY...BUT OTHERWISE DEEP MECHANICAL MIXING SHOULD PROMOTE
AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE CWA BY MID-LATE MORNING. BEST
CHANCE FOR SUNSHINE (AND LONGEST WARM SECTOR DURATION) WILL BE EAST
OF A ZANESVILLE TO NEW CASTLE LINE...WHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP
OUT AT OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES UNDER GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THAT WILL USHER
IN SOME SEASONABLY HUMID AIR AS WELL.

MODELS LARGELY AGREE WITH THE DEPICTION OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN 19-23Z...SIGNALING THE
ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT. EVEN IF WE POKE INTO
THE 60S...SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY LOOKS RATHER MEAGER GIVEN MODEST
LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THUNDER CHANCES LOOK
LOW...BUT STRONG FRONTAL ASCENT COULD YIELD A BROKEN NARROW
COLD-FRONTAL RAINBAND (SQUALL) DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON
FRONTAL PUSH. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF 70-80 KNOTS OF MID LEVEL
FLOW...WE COULD SEE SOME STRONG CONVECTIVE GUSTS ALONG AND
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IF THIS FEATURE MATERIALIZES.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SHARPLY LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. DEEP
LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AS SEVERAL EMBEDDED MID LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE
THROUGH THE UPPER JET AXIS. LOW LEVEL FLOW TRAJECTORIES LOOK POOR
FOR LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS UNTIL LATER TUESDAY...AND EVEN THEN WOULD BE
AIMED ACROSS WESTERN NY.

BOOKBINDER

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS TOWARD THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY...A STRONG
SOUTHEAST COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MATURE QUICKLY AND MOVE NORTH
OR NORTHEAST ALONG THE EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE. MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE STRONGLY IN THIS PERIOD. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A MAJOR STORM
INSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...WHILE THE GFS IS QUICKER...WITH AN
OPEN WAVE GOING OUT TO SEA AND FAILING TO LATCH ONTO THE STRONG
THERMAL GRADIENT. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM COULD HAVE
MAJOR IMPLICATIONS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TRAVEL TO AND
FROM THE EAST COAST...ESPECIALLY THE INTERIOR AIRPORTS AND HIGHWAYS
WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE SIGNIFICANT IF STRONGER MODEL
SOLUTIONS VERIFY.

DO NOT EXPECT ANY IMPACTS ACROSS THE LOCAL CWA...BUT GIVEN THE HIGH
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS POTENTIAL STORM...FOLKS TRAVELING TO
OR FROM THE EAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR FORECASTS.

OTHERWISE...A PERIOD OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
FOR TUESDAY AND CONTINUE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK...INCLUDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. PRESENTLY DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A PROGRESSIVE
CLIPPER-LIKE WAVE COULD BRING A BRIEF BOUT OF SNOW TO THE REGION
THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY.

BOOKBINDER

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECTING GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SRLY WINDS TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO STRONGER SERLY
WINDS TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. POSSIBLE
MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH WARM
FRONT RAIN. GUSTY SRLY WINDS EXPECTED TO THEN PERSIST INTO MON.
TAX

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230851
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
351 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. WARMING TREND CONTINUES TODAY...BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN TONIGHT. WINDY AND WARM
MONDAY...BEFORE TURNING SHARPLY COLDER LATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND AT LEAST SOME SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW
RESULTING IN TEMPS PLATEAUING AND IN SOME CASES EVEN COMING UP A
DEGREE OR TWO. READINGS COMMONLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ARE A
FAR CRY FROM 24 HRS AGO WHERE WE HAD MID TO LOW TEENS.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE FIRST WEAK WAVE EXITING OUR NE
COUNTIES WHILE THE NEXT WAVE BEGINS TO STREAM IN FROM OHIO.
WITH H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS FROM CURRENTLY
240DEG...EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO SKIRT ALONG THE NWRN PERIPHERY
OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDDAY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER INTENSIFYING SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.
EXPECTING DAYTIME HIGHS TO RANGE ABOUT 8-10F ABOVE AVERAGE.

A DEEPENING LOW PUSHES OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS TONIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES BY MON MORNING. AS
THE LOW MOVES UP THE MS VALLEY IT WILL GATHER COPIOUS GULF
MOISTURE THAT WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH A
WARM FRONT. STRONG SE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC...IN THE FORM OF A
60+ KT H85 JET...WILL SET UP DOWNSLOPING FROM THE RIDGES AND
COULD DELAY THE ONSET OF RAIN BY AN HOUR OR TWO. BY 03Z
MON...HOWEVER...RAINSHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA AS THE LOW PIVOTS NORTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH THE
STOUT H85 JET PERSISTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE RIDGES BETWEEN
00-06Z...THE BL SHOULD DECOUPLE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE HIGHEST WINDS
ALOFT. EXPECTING TO SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE 20-30KT
RANGE...BUT WILL NOT BE ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND TUESDAY/...

SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT QUICKLY THROUGH THE CWA EARLY MONDAY
MORNING IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SURGING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN ONTARIO. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND ATTENDANT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD RAPIDLY END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND 12Z AS
PSEUDO-CAPPED WARM SECTOR AIRMASS SPREADS INTO THE AREA. WITH THE
LARGE SCALE MOISTURE SURGE...COULD SEE SOME DRIZZLE OR SPOTTY
SHOWERS EARLY...BUT OTHERWISE DEEP MECHANICAL MIXING SHOULD PROMOTE
AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE CWA BY MID-LATE MORNING. BEST
CHANCE FOR SUNSHINE (AND LONGEST WARM SECTOR DURATION) WILL BE EAST
OF A ZANESVILLE TO NEW CASTLE LINE...WHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP
OUT AT OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES UNDER GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THAT WILL USHER
IN SOME SEASONABLY HUMID AIR AS WELL.

MODELS LARGELY AGREE WITH THE DEPICTION OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN 19-23Z...SIGNALING THE
ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT. EVEN IF WE POKE INTO
THE 60S...SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY LOOKS RATHER MEAGER GIVEN MODEST
LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THUNDER CHANCES LOOK
LOW...BUT STRONG FRONTAL ASCENT COULD YIELD A BROKEN NARROW
COLD-FRONTAL RAINBAND (SQUALL) DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON
FRONTAL PUSH. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF 70-80 KNOTS OF MID LEVEL
FLOW...WE COULD SEE SOME STRONG CONVECTIVE GUSTS ALONG AND
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IF THIS FEATURE MATERIALIZES.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SHARPLY LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. DEEP
LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AS SEVERAL EMBEDDED MID LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE
THROUGH THE UPPER JET AXIS. LOW LEVEL FLOW TRAJECTORIES LOOK POOR
FOR LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS UNTIL LATER TUESDAY...AND EVEN THEN WOULD BE
AIMED ACROSS WESTERN NY.

BOOKBINDER

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS TOWARD THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY...A STRONG
SOUTHEAST COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MATURE QUICKLY AND MOVE NORTH
OR NORTHEAST ALONG THE EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE. MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE STRONGLY IN THIS PERIOD. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A MAJOR STORM
INSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...WHILE THE GFS IS QUICKER...WITH AN
OPEN WAVE GOING OUT TO SEA AND FAILING TO LATCH ONTO THE STRONG
THERMAL GRADIENT. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM COULD HAVE
MAJOR IMPLICATIONS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TRAVEL TO AND
FROM THE EAST COAST...ESPECIALLY THE INTERIOR AIRPORTS AND HIGHWAYS
WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE SIGNIFICANT IF STRONGER MODEL
SOLUTIONS VERIFY.

DO NOT EXPECT ANY IMPACTS ACROSS THE LOCAL CWA...BUT GIVEN THE HIGH
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS POTENTIAL STORM...FOLKS TRAVELING TO
OR FROM THE EAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR FORECASTS.

OTHERWISE...A PERIOD OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
FOR TUESDAY AND CONTINUE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK...INCLUDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. PRESENTLY DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A PROGRESSIVE
CLIPPER-LIKE WAVE COULD BRING A BRIEF BOUT OF SNOW TO THE REGION
THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY.

BOOKBINDER

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECTING GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SRLY WINDS TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO STRONGER SERLY
WINDS TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. POSSIBLE
MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH WARM
FRONT RAIN. GUSTY SRLY WINDS EXPECTED TO THEN PERSIST INTO MON.
TAX

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230851
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
351 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. WARMING TREND CONTINUES TODAY...BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN TONIGHT. WINDY AND WARM
MONDAY...BEFORE TURNING SHARPLY COLDER LATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND AT LEAST SOME SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW
RESULTING IN TEMPS PLATEAUING AND IN SOME CASES EVEN COMING UP A
DEGREE OR TWO. READINGS COMMONLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ARE A
FAR CRY FROM 24 HRS AGO WHERE WE HAD MID TO LOW TEENS.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE FIRST WEAK WAVE EXITING OUR NE
COUNTIES WHILE THE NEXT WAVE BEGINS TO STREAM IN FROM OHIO.
WITH H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS FROM CURRENTLY
240DEG...EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO SKIRT ALONG THE NWRN PERIPHERY
OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDDAY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER INTENSIFYING SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.
EXPECTING DAYTIME HIGHS TO RANGE ABOUT 8-10F ABOVE AVERAGE.

A DEEPENING LOW PUSHES OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS TONIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES BY MON MORNING. AS
THE LOW MOVES UP THE MS VALLEY IT WILL GATHER COPIOUS GULF
MOISTURE THAT WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH A
WARM FRONT. STRONG SE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC...IN THE FORM OF A
60+ KT H85 JET...WILL SET UP DOWNSLOPING FROM THE RIDGES AND
COULD DELAY THE ONSET OF RAIN BY AN HOUR OR TWO. BY 03Z
MON...HOWEVER...RAINSHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA AS THE LOW PIVOTS NORTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH THE
STOUT H85 JET PERSISTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE RIDGES BETWEEN
00-06Z...THE BL SHOULD DECOUPLE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE HIGHEST WINDS
ALOFT. EXPECTING TO SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE 20-30KT
RANGE...BUT WILL NOT BE ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND TUESDAY/...

SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT QUICKLY THROUGH THE CWA EARLY MONDAY
MORNING IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SURGING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN ONTARIO. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND ATTENDANT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD RAPIDLY END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND 12Z AS
PSEUDO-CAPPED WARM SECTOR AIRMASS SPREADS INTO THE AREA. WITH THE
LARGE SCALE MOISTURE SURGE...COULD SEE SOME DRIZZLE OR SPOTTY
SHOWERS EARLY...BUT OTHERWISE DEEP MECHANICAL MIXING SHOULD PROMOTE
AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE CWA BY MID-LATE MORNING. BEST
CHANCE FOR SUNSHINE (AND LONGEST WARM SECTOR DURATION) WILL BE EAST
OF A ZANESVILLE TO NEW CASTLE LINE...WHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP
OUT AT OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES UNDER GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THAT WILL USHER
IN SOME SEASONABLY HUMID AIR AS WELL.

MODELS LARGELY AGREE WITH THE DEPICTION OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN 19-23Z...SIGNALING THE
ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT. EVEN IF WE POKE INTO
THE 60S...SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY LOOKS RATHER MEAGER GIVEN MODEST
LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THUNDER CHANCES LOOK
LOW...BUT STRONG FRONTAL ASCENT COULD YIELD A BROKEN NARROW
COLD-FRONTAL RAINBAND (SQUALL) DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON
FRONTAL PUSH. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF 70-80 KNOTS OF MID LEVEL
FLOW...WE COULD SEE SOME STRONG CONVECTIVE GUSTS ALONG AND
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IF THIS FEATURE MATERIALIZES.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SHARPLY LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. DEEP
LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AS SEVERAL EMBEDDED MID LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE
THROUGH THE UPPER JET AXIS. LOW LEVEL FLOW TRAJECTORIES LOOK POOR
FOR LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS UNTIL LATER TUESDAY...AND EVEN THEN WOULD BE
AIMED ACROSS WESTERN NY.

BOOKBINDER

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS TOWARD THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY...A STRONG
SOUTHEAST COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MATURE QUICKLY AND MOVE NORTH
OR NORTHEAST ALONG THE EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE. MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE STRONGLY IN THIS PERIOD. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A MAJOR STORM
INSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...WHILE THE GFS IS QUICKER...WITH AN
OPEN WAVE GOING OUT TO SEA AND FAILING TO LATCH ONTO THE STRONG
THERMAL GRADIENT. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM COULD HAVE
MAJOR IMPLICATIONS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TRAVEL TO AND
FROM THE EAST COAST...ESPECIALLY THE INTERIOR AIRPORTS AND HIGHWAYS
WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE SIGNIFICANT IF STRONGER MODEL
SOLUTIONS VERIFY.

DO NOT EXPECT ANY IMPACTS ACROSS THE LOCAL CWA...BUT GIVEN THE HIGH
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS POTENTIAL STORM...FOLKS TRAVELING TO
OR FROM THE EAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR FORECASTS.

OTHERWISE...A PERIOD OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
FOR TUESDAY AND CONTINUE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK...INCLUDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. PRESENTLY DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A PROGRESSIVE
CLIPPER-LIKE WAVE COULD BRING A BRIEF BOUT OF SNOW TO THE REGION
THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY.

BOOKBINDER

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECTING GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SRLY WINDS TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO STRONGER SERLY
WINDS TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. POSSIBLE
MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH WARM
FRONT RAIN. GUSTY SRLY WINDS EXPECTED TO THEN PERSIST INTO MON.
TAX

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230851
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
351 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. WARMING TREND CONTINUES TODAY...BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN TONIGHT. WINDY AND WARM
MONDAY...BEFORE TURNING SHARPLY COLDER LATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND AT LEAST SOME SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW
RESULTING IN TEMPS PLATEAUING AND IN SOME CASES EVEN COMING UP A
DEGREE OR TWO. READINGS COMMONLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ARE A
FAR CRY FROM 24 HRS AGO WHERE WE HAD MID TO LOW TEENS.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE FIRST WEAK WAVE EXITING OUR NE
COUNTIES WHILE THE NEXT WAVE BEGINS TO STREAM IN FROM OHIO.
WITH H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS FROM CURRENTLY
240DEG...EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO SKIRT ALONG THE NWRN PERIPHERY
OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDDAY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER INTENSIFYING SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.
EXPECTING DAYTIME HIGHS TO RANGE ABOUT 8-10F ABOVE AVERAGE.

A DEEPENING LOW PUSHES OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS TONIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES BY MON MORNING. AS
THE LOW MOVES UP THE MS VALLEY IT WILL GATHER COPIOUS GULF
MOISTURE THAT WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH A
WARM FRONT. STRONG SE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC...IN THE FORM OF A
60+ KT H85 JET...WILL SET UP DOWNSLOPING FROM THE RIDGES AND
COULD DELAY THE ONSET OF RAIN BY AN HOUR OR TWO. BY 03Z
MON...HOWEVER...RAINSHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA AS THE LOW PIVOTS NORTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH THE
STOUT H85 JET PERSISTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE RIDGES BETWEEN
00-06Z...THE BL SHOULD DECOUPLE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE HIGHEST WINDS
ALOFT. EXPECTING TO SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE 20-30KT
RANGE...BUT WILL NOT BE ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND TUESDAY/...

SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT QUICKLY THROUGH THE CWA EARLY MONDAY
MORNING IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SURGING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN ONTARIO. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND ATTENDANT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD RAPIDLY END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND 12Z AS
PSEUDO-CAPPED WARM SECTOR AIRMASS SPREADS INTO THE AREA. WITH THE
LARGE SCALE MOISTURE SURGE...COULD SEE SOME DRIZZLE OR SPOTTY
SHOWERS EARLY...BUT OTHERWISE DEEP MECHANICAL MIXING SHOULD PROMOTE
AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE CWA BY MID-LATE MORNING. BEST
CHANCE FOR SUNSHINE (AND LONGEST WARM SECTOR DURATION) WILL BE EAST
OF A ZANESVILLE TO NEW CASTLE LINE...WHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP
OUT AT OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES UNDER GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THAT WILL USHER
IN SOME SEASONABLY HUMID AIR AS WELL.

MODELS LARGELY AGREE WITH THE DEPICTION OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN 19-23Z...SIGNALING THE
ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT. EVEN IF WE POKE INTO
THE 60S...SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY LOOKS RATHER MEAGER GIVEN MODEST
LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THUNDER CHANCES LOOK
LOW...BUT STRONG FRONTAL ASCENT COULD YIELD A BROKEN NARROW
COLD-FRONTAL RAINBAND (SQUALL) DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON
FRONTAL PUSH. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF 70-80 KNOTS OF MID LEVEL
FLOW...WE COULD SEE SOME STRONG CONVECTIVE GUSTS ALONG AND
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IF THIS FEATURE MATERIALIZES.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SHARPLY LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. DEEP
LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AS SEVERAL EMBEDDED MID LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE
THROUGH THE UPPER JET AXIS. LOW LEVEL FLOW TRAJECTORIES LOOK POOR
FOR LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS UNTIL LATER TUESDAY...AND EVEN THEN WOULD BE
AIMED ACROSS WESTERN NY.

BOOKBINDER

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS TOWARD THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY...A STRONG
SOUTHEAST COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MATURE QUICKLY AND MOVE NORTH
OR NORTHEAST ALONG THE EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE. MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE STRONGLY IN THIS PERIOD. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A MAJOR STORM
INSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...WHILE THE GFS IS QUICKER...WITH AN
OPEN WAVE GOING OUT TO SEA AND FAILING TO LATCH ONTO THE STRONG
THERMAL GRADIENT. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM COULD HAVE
MAJOR IMPLICATIONS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TRAVEL TO AND
FROM THE EAST COAST...ESPECIALLY THE INTERIOR AIRPORTS AND HIGHWAYS
WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE SIGNIFICANT IF STRONGER MODEL
SOLUTIONS VERIFY.

DO NOT EXPECT ANY IMPACTS ACROSS THE LOCAL CWA...BUT GIVEN THE HIGH
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS POTENTIAL STORM...FOLKS TRAVELING TO
OR FROM THE EAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR FORECASTS.

OTHERWISE...A PERIOD OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
FOR TUESDAY AND CONTINUE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK...INCLUDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. PRESENTLY DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A PROGRESSIVE
CLIPPER-LIKE WAVE COULD BRING A BRIEF BOUT OF SNOW TO THE REGION
THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY.

BOOKBINDER

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECTING GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SRLY WINDS TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO STRONGER SERLY
WINDS TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. POSSIBLE
MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH WARM
FRONT RAIN. GUSTY SRLY WINDS EXPECTED TO THEN PERSIST INTO MON.
TAX

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KLWX 230840
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
340 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF CAPE HATTERAS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OFFSHORE
THIS MORNING. A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIPRES REMAINS OFF HSE ELY THIS MRNG. A SWATH OF LOW DEWPTS
RESIDES NW OF THIS RDG...FM THE MID ATLC UP THE SEABOARD TO DOWNEAST
ME. THIS DRY AIR HAS BEEN PROTECTING AREA FM PACKETS OF ISENT LIFT
AND ASSOCD PCPN CROSSING THE LWR GRTLKS. INSTEAD...THERE ARE PLENTY
OF MID-UPR DECK CLDS AND LGT SLY WINDS ACRS AREA.

THERE ARE TWO RGNS OF S/WV ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM... ONE MVG
ONSHORE INVOF NWRN FL AND A HEALTHY VORT EMERGING INTO THE GLFMEX FM
CSTL TX. AS THESE S/WVS LIFT/DIG...H5 FLOW PTTN WL BECOME MORE
AMPLIFIED. THAT WL ALLOW A WMFNT TO APPRCH THE CWFA TDA. BELIEVE THE
FNT ITSELF WL REMAIN SW OF CWFA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS. INSTEAD...
ENERGY WL BE FOCUSED TWD MSTNG THE DRY AMS. AM STILL HOPEFUL THAT
THERE WL BE SOME SUNSHN DURING THE MRNG/MIDDAY...BUT IT/LL BECOME
MASKED BY INCRSG CLDCVR. PCPN WL FLLW SOON THEREAFTER.

FOR THE FIRST PD...AM CONFINING LKLY POPS TO SWRN CWFA...GNLY SHD
SWD. THIS ISNT TOO DIFFERENT FM PRVS FCSTS. FURTHER...AM KEEPING
MOST OF MD-- ANYWHERE NE OF THE PTMC RIVER-- DRY. OBVIOUSLY...CHC
POPS IN BTWN. GFS/ECMWF HV A BETTER HANDLE THAN NAM ON EVOLUTION...
AS EVIDENCED BY COOL BIAS IN YDA FCST. AM USING A BLEND OF MAXT
DERIVED FM THOSE MDLS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
WMFNT WL LIFT ACRS CWFA TNGT...AIDED BY 60-70 KT LLJ BRINGING PWAT
VALUES UP TO ARND 1.5 IN. THUS...CAT POPS AREAWIDE FOR MOST OF THE
NGT...REACHING METRO BALT BY MID EVNG AND ENDING IN THE MTNS
PRE-DAWN. AM XPCTG A PD OF MDT RAFL IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS
TIMEFRAME...SPCLY FOR THE BLURDG EWD...WHICH WL HV THE ASSISTANCE OF
THE RDG LINE FOR ENHANCED LIFT. STORM TTL QPF BTWN 0.50-1.00 INCH...
BUT LOCALLY HIER CERTAINLY PSBL. CANT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
EITHER GIVEN SHEAR AND MODEST INSTBY /BEST LI SUBZERO SRN MD
06-09Z/. HV CONFINED SCHC SE OF I-95 FOR JUST A CPL HRS AFTR
MIDNGT.

THE WNDS WL CAUSE ANOTHER ISSUE FOR THE HILLS...AS THE JET MAY BE
DOWN AS LOW AS 1500-2000 FT. HWVR...MIXING SHUD BE RATHER POOR.
CONFIDENCE IN POSITION/HGT/STRENGTH FOR THE JET PRECLUDE AN ADVY
ATTM...HWVR THE THREAT ADEQUATE ENUF TO JUSTIFY INCLUSION IN HWO.

THE WMFNT SHUD LIFT N OF CWFA BY DAYBREAK...TAKING ANY PCPN ACRS THE
DELMARVA. HV KEPT A CHC OF PCPN INTO MID-MRNG TO ACCT FOR ANY TIMING
DIFFS. OTRW...THERE/S NOT A LOT OF FORCING FOR SVRL HRS TIL THE
ATTENDENT CDFNT ARRIVES. THEREFORE...HV WHITTLED OUT A BREEZY BUT
DRY PD DURING THE MIDDAY. EVEN WHEN THE CDFNT DOES MAKE IT HERE
/LATE DAY/...THERES BAROCLINICITY BUT VIRTUALLY NO ULVL FORCING. AM
KEEPING ACCOMPANYING POPS IN THE 20-30 PCT RANGE.

H8 TEMPS PEAK ARND 14C AT 12Z MON MRNG. THEREFORE...WUDNT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE MIN-T BE LESS THAN DIURNAL. HV TAKEN THE WARMER END
OF MOS TO COMPOSE MIN-T GRID...MID 40S TO LWR 50S. HV SIDED
SIMILARLY WARM FOR MAXT MON. TEMPS 70+ SHUD PREVAIL E OF THE BLURDG
MON.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY SWING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...
USHERING IN A DRYING WEST WIND...BUT STILL SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS...
PROBABLY MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN GIVEN THE WARM STARTING
CONDITIONS. IF THE UPSLOPE OPPORTUNITY LINGERS LATER INTO THE
NIGHT...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DESPITE A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT REBOUND MUCH ON
TUESDAY...REACHING JUST THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. THE ALLEGHENY FRONT
REMAINS IN THE 30S ALL DAY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...EVERY
DAY AFTER TUESDAY THIS WEEK WILL BE EVEN COLDER.

THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH HERE MONDAY NIGHT WILL GET HELD UP
IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY A STRONG UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SFC
HIGH. MODELS THEN INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
FRONT AS UPPER ENERGY DIGS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. FROM THERE...
UNCERTAINTY RAPIDLY INCREASES. DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE LOW IS TO
THE COAST...PART OR ALL OF THE AREA WILL SEE PRECIPITATION SPREAD IN
TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AND OF COURSE...SFC
TEMPS ARE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING PART OF THE TIME...AND POTENTIAL
SOLUTIONS ALOFT RUN A WIDE RANGE. THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES ON
TOP OF ALL OF THAT TOO. OUR FRIENDS AT WPC NOTE...AS WE DO...THAT
THE DIFFERENCES HAVE A LINK TO AN UPSTREAM CLIPPER SYSTEM AND HOW IT
PLAYS INTO THE MOTION/EVOLUTION OF THE COASTAL STORM. THE BOTTOM
LINE IS THAT ALL SOLUTIONS ARE STILL ON THE TABLE...FROM NOT MUCH OF
ANYTHING TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GENERIC
RAIN-OR-SNOW MENTION BUT WITH INCREASED POPS. LATER TODAY...OUR
PROBABILISTIC SNOW FORECASTS WILL GO THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME...SO WE
WILL AT LEAST HAVE A GOALPOST AND PROBABILISTIC REFERENCES OF
CERTAINTY THEN.

WHATEVER DOES OR DOES NOT HAPPEN WEDNESDAY...THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY
PULL AWAY...LEAVING A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WESTERLIES BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL FAVOR UPSLOPE
SNOW ON THE ALLEGHENY FRONT FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...BUT THE
AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTIES KEEP THINGS TRICKY ELSEWHERE. IF UPPER
ENERGY DIGS FURTHER SOUTH...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS /PROBABLY RAIN GIVEN
A BIT OF A WARMUP/ WOULD BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WITH THE
CLIPPER PASSAGE.

AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS IN AND THINGS ARE
QUIET...BUT COLD...FOR THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE HINTS AT YET ANOTHER CLIPPER FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY. FOR NOW...I DID NOT PUT ANY PRECIP EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT...BUT I DID BRING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW OUT WEST.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S AND 40S...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS ACRS TERMINALS TDA. PCPN /LGT-MDT RA/ SHUD ENVELOP AREA BY
LT AFTN/EVE PUSH...PROGRESSING FM SW TO NE-- 21-23Z CHO TO 02-04Z
BWI/MTN. FLGT CONDS SHUD RAPIDLY DECLINE THRU MVFR TO IFR. XPCT IFR
CONDS OVNGT INTO THE BGNG OF MON MRNG PUSH...BEFORE GRDL IMPRVMNT
COMES. VFR SHUD RTN BY NOON MON.

WNDS WL ALSO BE A CONCERN...AS A 60-70 KT LOW LVL JET WL RESIDE AS
LOW AS 2K FT. THESE CONDS SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER LLWS MENTION FOR ALL
TAFS ELY MON MRNG. THINK SHEAR SHUD LESSEN BY SUNRISE MON. HWVR...
15-20 KT SUSTAINED SSWLY WNDS WL REMAIN THRU MOST OF DAY MON BEFORE
VEERING LT IN THE DAY.

WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHERLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE UP/OFF THE COAST ON
WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE IT IS...WINDS COULD STRENGTHEN.
GOOD CHANCE OF -RA AND/OR -SN WEDNESDAY. IF SNOW FALLS...LOW
CIGS/VSBY WOULD RESULT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY THURSDAY TO VFR.
&&

.MARINE...
SLY WNDS GNLY ARND 10 KT...ALTHO TPLM2 A PINCH HIER. DONT BELIEVE
WNDS WL DECR MUCH MORE THRU THE DAYLIGHT HRS SUN MRNG. THE P-GRAD WL
INCREASE SUN AFTN AS A WMFNT APPROACHES. HV EXPANDED SCA FOR THE
EVNG HRS TO INCL MOST OF THE BAY. A 60-70 LLJ WL PASS OVER WATERS LT
AT NGT. HWVR MIXING WL BE POOR...ASSISTED BY 50+ DEGF AIR TEMPS OVER
WATER TEMPS IN THE LWR-MID 40S. HV CAPPED WINDS AT 30 KT...HOLDING
OFF GLW MENTION. DAYSHIFT WL BE GIVING THIS MORE ATTN...AS THERE WL
BE A LOT OF WND NOT FAR OFF THE WATERS EDGE.

THE JET...AND THE WMFNT...WL PASS N OF THE WATERS MON MRNG BUT WNDS
WL INCR AGN MON AFTN AS THE CDFNT APPROACHES. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
LULL /RELATIVELY SPEAKING/...BUT THE GRADIENT WL SUPPORT 20-25 KT
WINDS MON AFTN. HV XTNDD SCA FOR ALL WATERS INTO MON.

LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING
ON TRACK OF LOW UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...SOME GUSTS TO SCA LEVEL
ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER MARYLAND BAY...ON WEDNESDAY.
MORE SCA-LEVEL GUSTS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BEHIND A
CLIPPER SYSTEM.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WINDS ON THE MID CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 MPH BY SUN
NIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE TEMP CONTRAST BETWEEN THE AIR AND
WATER...MUCH BETTER WINDS WILL BE CONFINED ALOFT. EVEN THE TYPICALLY
AGGRESSIVE CBOFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE WL BE NO WATER LVL
RISE WITH TIDES TODAY OR TONIGHT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OF
COURSE...BUT EVEN IF THERE WERE MODEL ERRORS STILL DO NOT ANTICIPATE
ANY ISSUES.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ531>534-536-537-539>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ530-535-538.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...HTS/JE
MARINE...HTS/JE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 230840
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
340 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF CAPE HATTERAS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OFFSHORE
THIS MORNING. A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIPRES REMAINS OFF HSE ELY THIS MRNG. A SWATH OF LOW DEWPTS
RESIDES NW OF THIS RDG...FM THE MID ATLC UP THE SEABOARD TO DOWNEAST
ME. THIS DRY AIR HAS BEEN PROTECTING AREA FM PACKETS OF ISENT LIFT
AND ASSOCD PCPN CROSSING THE LWR GRTLKS. INSTEAD...THERE ARE PLENTY
OF MID-UPR DECK CLDS AND LGT SLY WINDS ACRS AREA.

THERE ARE TWO RGNS OF S/WV ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM... ONE MVG
ONSHORE INVOF NWRN FL AND A HEALTHY VORT EMERGING INTO THE GLFMEX FM
CSTL TX. AS THESE S/WVS LIFT/DIG...H5 FLOW PTTN WL BECOME MORE
AMPLIFIED. THAT WL ALLOW A WMFNT TO APPRCH THE CWFA TDA. BELIEVE THE
FNT ITSELF WL REMAIN SW OF CWFA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS. INSTEAD...
ENERGY WL BE FOCUSED TWD MSTNG THE DRY AMS. AM STILL HOPEFUL THAT
THERE WL BE SOME SUNSHN DURING THE MRNG/MIDDAY...BUT IT/LL BECOME
MASKED BY INCRSG CLDCVR. PCPN WL FLLW SOON THEREAFTER.

FOR THE FIRST PD...AM CONFINING LKLY POPS TO SWRN CWFA...GNLY SHD
SWD. THIS ISNT TOO DIFFERENT FM PRVS FCSTS. FURTHER...AM KEEPING
MOST OF MD-- ANYWHERE NE OF THE PTMC RIVER-- DRY. OBVIOUSLY...CHC
POPS IN BTWN. GFS/ECMWF HV A BETTER HANDLE THAN NAM ON EVOLUTION...
AS EVIDENCED BY COOL BIAS IN YDA FCST. AM USING A BLEND OF MAXT
DERIVED FM THOSE MDLS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
WMFNT WL LIFT ACRS CWFA TNGT...AIDED BY 60-70 KT LLJ BRINGING PWAT
VALUES UP TO ARND 1.5 IN. THUS...CAT POPS AREAWIDE FOR MOST OF THE
NGT...REACHING METRO BALT BY MID EVNG AND ENDING IN THE MTNS
PRE-DAWN. AM XPCTG A PD OF MDT RAFL IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS
TIMEFRAME...SPCLY FOR THE BLURDG EWD...WHICH WL HV THE ASSISTANCE OF
THE RDG LINE FOR ENHANCED LIFT. STORM TTL QPF BTWN 0.50-1.00 INCH...
BUT LOCALLY HIER CERTAINLY PSBL. CANT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
EITHER GIVEN SHEAR AND MODEST INSTBY /BEST LI SUBZERO SRN MD
06-09Z/. HV CONFINED SCHC SE OF I-95 FOR JUST A CPL HRS AFTR
MIDNGT.

THE WNDS WL CAUSE ANOTHER ISSUE FOR THE HILLS...AS THE JET MAY BE
DOWN AS LOW AS 1500-2000 FT. HWVR...MIXING SHUD BE RATHER POOR.
CONFIDENCE IN POSITION/HGT/STRENGTH FOR THE JET PRECLUDE AN ADVY
ATTM...HWVR THE THREAT ADEQUATE ENUF TO JUSTIFY INCLUSION IN HWO.

THE WMFNT SHUD LIFT N OF CWFA BY DAYBREAK...TAKING ANY PCPN ACRS THE
DELMARVA. HV KEPT A CHC OF PCPN INTO MID-MRNG TO ACCT FOR ANY TIMING
DIFFS. OTRW...THERE/S NOT A LOT OF FORCING FOR SVRL HRS TIL THE
ATTENDENT CDFNT ARRIVES. THEREFORE...HV WHITTLED OUT A BREEZY BUT
DRY PD DURING THE MIDDAY. EVEN WHEN THE CDFNT DOES MAKE IT HERE
/LATE DAY/...THERES BAROCLINICITY BUT VIRTUALLY NO ULVL FORCING. AM
KEEPING ACCOMPANYING POPS IN THE 20-30 PCT RANGE.

H8 TEMPS PEAK ARND 14C AT 12Z MON MRNG. THEREFORE...WUDNT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE MIN-T BE LESS THAN DIURNAL. HV TAKEN THE WARMER END
OF MOS TO COMPOSE MIN-T GRID...MID 40S TO LWR 50S. HV SIDED
SIMILARLY WARM FOR MAXT MON. TEMPS 70+ SHUD PREVAIL E OF THE BLURDG
MON.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY SWING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...
USHERING IN A DRYING WEST WIND...BUT STILL SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS...
PROBABLY MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN GIVEN THE WARM STARTING
CONDITIONS. IF THE UPSLOPE OPPORTUNITY LINGERS LATER INTO THE
NIGHT...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DESPITE A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT REBOUND MUCH ON
TUESDAY...REACHING JUST THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. THE ALLEGHENY FRONT
REMAINS IN THE 30S ALL DAY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...EVERY
DAY AFTER TUESDAY THIS WEEK WILL BE EVEN COLDER.

THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH HERE MONDAY NIGHT WILL GET HELD UP
IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY A STRONG UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SFC
HIGH. MODELS THEN INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
FRONT AS UPPER ENERGY DIGS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. FROM THERE...
UNCERTAINTY RAPIDLY INCREASES. DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE LOW IS TO
THE COAST...PART OR ALL OF THE AREA WILL SEE PRECIPITATION SPREAD IN
TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AND OF COURSE...SFC
TEMPS ARE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING PART OF THE TIME...AND POTENTIAL
SOLUTIONS ALOFT RUN A WIDE RANGE. THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES ON
TOP OF ALL OF THAT TOO. OUR FRIENDS AT WPC NOTE...AS WE DO...THAT
THE DIFFERENCES HAVE A LINK TO AN UPSTREAM CLIPPER SYSTEM AND HOW IT
PLAYS INTO THE MOTION/EVOLUTION OF THE COASTAL STORM. THE BOTTOM
LINE IS THAT ALL SOLUTIONS ARE STILL ON THE TABLE...FROM NOT MUCH OF
ANYTHING TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GENERIC
RAIN-OR-SNOW MENTION BUT WITH INCREASED POPS. LATER TODAY...OUR
PROBABILISTIC SNOW FORECASTS WILL GO THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME...SO WE
WILL AT LEAST HAVE A GOALPOST AND PROBABILISTIC REFERENCES OF
CERTAINTY THEN.

WHATEVER DOES OR DOES NOT HAPPEN WEDNESDAY...THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY
PULL AWAY...LEAVING A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WESTERLIES BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL FAVOR UPSLOPE
SNOW ON THE ALLEGHENY FRONT FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...BUT THE
AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTIES KEEP THINGS TRICKY ELSEWHERE. IF UPPER
ENERGY DIGS FURTHER SOUTH...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS /PROBABLY RAIN GIVEN
A BIT OF A WARMUP/ WOULD BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WITH THE
CLIPPER PASSAGE.

AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS IN AND THINGS ARE
QUIET...BUT COLD...FOR THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE HINTS AT YET ANOTHER CLIPPER FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY. FOR NOW...I DID NOT PUT ANY PRECIP EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT...BUT I DID BRING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW OUT WEST.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S AND 40S...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS ACRS TERMINALS TDA. PCPN /LGT-MDT RA/ SHUD ENVELOP AREA BY
LT AFTN/EVE PUSH...PROGRESSING FM SW TO NE-- 21-23Z CHO TO 02-04Z
BWI/MTN. FLGT CONDS SHUD RAPIDLY DECLINE THRU MVFR TO IFR. XPCT IFR
CONDS OVNGT INTO THE BGNG OF MON MRNG PUSH...BEFORE GRDL IMPRVMNT
COMES. VFR SHUD RTN BY NOON MON.

WNDS WL ALSO BE A CONCERN...AS A 60-70 KT LOW LVL JET WL RESIDE AS
LOW AS 2K FT. THESE CONDS SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER LLWS MENTION FOR ALL
TAFS ELY MON MRNG. THINK SHEAR SHUD LESSEN BY SUNRISE MON. HWVR...
15-20 KT SUSTAINED SSWLY WNDS WL REMAIN THRU MOST OF DAY MON BEFORE
VEERING LT IN THE DAY.

WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHERLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE UP/OFF THE COAST ON
WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE IT IS...WINDS COULD STRENGTHEN.
GOOD CHANCE OF -RA AND/OR -SN WEDNESDAY. IF SNOW FALLS...LOW
CIGS/VSBY WOULD RESULT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY THURSDAY TO VFR.
&&

.MARINE...
SLY WNDS GNLY ARND 10 KT...ALTHO TPLM2 A PINCH HIER. DONT BELIEVE
WNDS WL DECR MUCH MORE THRU THE DAYLIGHT HRS SUN MRNG. THE P-GRAD WL
INCREASE SUN AFTN AS A WMFNT APPROACHES. HV EXPANDED SCA FOR THE
EVNG HRS TO INCL MOST OF THE BAY. A 60-70 LLJ WL PASS OVER WATERS LT
AT NGT. HWVR MIXING WL BE POOR...ASSISTED BY 50+ DEGF AIR TEMPS OVER
WATER TEMPS IN THE LWR-MID 40S. HV CAPPED WINDS AT 30 KT...HOLDING
OFF GLW MENTION. DAYSHIFT WL BE GIVING THIS MORE ATTN...AS THERE WL
BE A LOT OF WND NOT FAR OFF THE WATERS EDGE.

THE JET...AND THE WMFNT...WL PASS N OF THE WATERS MON MRNG BUT WNDS
WL INCR AGN MON AFTN AS THE CDFNT APPROACHES. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
LULL /RELATIVELY SPEAKING/...BUT THE GRADIENT WL SUPPORT 20-25 KT
WINDS MON AFTN. HV XTNDD SCA FOR ALL WATERS INTO MON.

LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING
ON TRACK OF LOW UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...SOME GUSTS TO SCA LEVEL
ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER MARYLAND BAY...ON WEDNESDAY.
MORE SCA-LEVEL GUSTS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BEHIND A
CLIPPER SYSTEM.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WINDS ON THE MID CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 MPH BY SUN
NIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE TEMP CONTRAST BETWEEN THE AIR AND
WATER...MUCH BETTER WINDS WILL BE CONFINED ALOFT. EVEN THE TYPICALLY
AGGRESSIVE CBOFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE WL BE NO WATER LVL
RISE WITH TIDES TODAY OR TONIGHT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OF
COURSE...BUT EVEN IF THERE WERE MODEL ERRORS STILL DO NOT ANTICIPATE
ANY ISSUES.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ531>534-536-537-539>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ530-535-538.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...HTS/JE
MARINE...HTS/JE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230746
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
246 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE EAST
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SFC HI PRES NOW OFF THE CST...WILL CONT TO SLO DRIFT E AWAY FM THE
CST THROUGH TDA. CLOUDS CONT TO INCRS...THICKEN...AND LWR FM THE
SW AS GULF COAST MOISTURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFT NE
THROUGH THE SE CONUS...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. XPCG MUCH OF THE DAY TO BE DRY...BUT
SOME RAIN SHOULD ARRIVE IN FAR SW PORTIONS OF LATE IN THE DAY.
WILL CONT W/ INCRSG POPS TO 50-60% POPS SW LATE IN THE DAY...W/
RIBBON OF 30-40% POP FROM THE NW PIEDMONT THROUGH NE NC. HI TEMPS
RANGING FM THE M50S NW TO L60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WILL CROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TNGT. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE (PWTRS INCRSG TO 1.5 TO
2 IN 00-06Z/24 PER 00Z/23 GFS) WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DUE TO A
STRONG NEARLY 70KT LLJ. POPS FOR RAIN DURING THE 12HR PERIOD TNGT
WILL CONT AT 100%. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
COASTAL NE NC (NOT READY TO ADD TO OTHER AREAS - ESP ERN VA/LWR SE
MD BUT WOULDN`T RULE IT OUT)...AND SPC HAS OUTLINED THAT AREA
(CSTL NE NC) IN SLGT CHC SVR. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
6HR PRESSURE FALLS OF -6MB TO -10MB GFS WILL RESULT IN
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE COAST.
GUSTS FROM THE SSE DIRECTION OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. LO
TEMPS TNGT SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 50S...WITH READINGS LIKELY TO
RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG FORCING AND SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
SHOULD RESULT IN A ~6HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAIN TNGT...WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS AVERAGING 0.5 TO 0.75 IN
N/CNTRL AND 1.00-1.25 IN NR THE CST (AND NE NC).

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION BY 12Z/25...W/ A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE FAR WRN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUE. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING...WITH A GUSTY SW WIND
DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S (SEE THE
THE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS). WILL LIMIT ANY POPS TO FAR
ESE AREAS OF FA AS 00Z/23 NAM RMNS OUTLIER IN LINGERING MOISTURE
ACRS THOSE LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS XPCD INLAND...WITH PSBL CLOUDS LINGERING RIGHT ALG THE
COAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TUE. HIGHS TUE
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER MORNING
LOWS FROM THE MID 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z/23 RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF COMING MORE INTO LINE WRT PTNTL
LO PRES DEVELOPING ALG STALLED FNTL BNDRY NR THE SE CONUS CST LT
TUE/TUE NGT...THEN TRACKING NNE ALG THE CST WED INTO WED NGT. A
BUSY PD OF TRAVEL MIDWEEK INCRSLY LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY
RA...AND AS PTNTL CSTL STM WINDS DOWN (LT WED/WED NGT)...MDL TEMP
PROFILES SUGGEST PSBL RA ENDING AS WET SN INLAND. HAVE NUDGED POPS
UP TO 70-80% E PORTION W...40-60% INLAND ON WED.

PCPN/MOIST THEN MOVES E OF THE AREA AND OFF THE CST LATER WED
WED NGT...WITH POPS DIMINISHING FM W TO E. A MAINLY DRY FRONT
SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO EARLY FRI MORNG. HI PRES WILL
THEN BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI THRU SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE L40S W AND M/U40S E WED...IN THE U40S TO L50S THU...IN THE
M/U40S FRI...AND RANGE THRU THE 40S SAT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LWR 40S WED MORNG...IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S THU AND
FRI MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S SAT MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONT ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL PERSIST INTO SUN
MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVD OFFSHORE OF VA/NC AND WNDS
AROUND THE HIGH ARE SE-SW OVER THE REGION AND GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 KTS. MEANWHILE...LOTS OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE SE AND GULF STATES
WILL PUSH NORTH INTO THE MID ATL REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
SUN.

A MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL HELP FORM A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE SE US AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVES NE OUT OF THE GOMEX
ON SUN. THIS WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AS A WARM FRONT
SURGES THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS(POSSIBLY
LOWER) DUE TO LOWERED CEILINGS AND REDUCED VIS DUE TO RAIN.
ALSO...WIND GUST TO 35KT MAY BE POSSIBLE MON MORNING AS THE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE OVER NE NC/SE VA.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE HOISTED SCA`S FOR THE ENTIRE WTRS STARTING SUN EVENG...AND
LASTING THRU MON AFTN/EVENG OR MON NGT FOR THE CHES BAY/CURRITUCK
SND AND THE CSTL WTRS. HI PRES SLIDES OUT TO SEA DURING SUN...WITH
LO PRES MOVNG FM THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY NNE THRU THE GRT LKS AND
INTO ERN CANADA SUN EVENG INTO MON NGT. SE OR S WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACRS THE WTRS/REGION LATE SUN INTO MON MORNG IN ADVANCE
OF A COLD FRONT. SE OR S WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO/ARND
30 KNOTS EXPECTED SUN EVENG INTO MON EVENG...WITH WAVES BLDNG TO 3
TO 5 FT IN THE CHES BAY...AND SEAS BLDNG TO 5 TO 8 FEET ON THE
CSTL WTRS. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WTRS MON NGT...WITH CALMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE INTO TUE NGT. STRONG NE OR N WINDS THEN
EXPECTED WED INTO WED NGT...AS LO PRES TRACKS NWRD JUST OFF THE
EAST CST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ633-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ630>632.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...ALB/TMG
AVIATION...DAP/JEF
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...AKQ













































000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230746
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
246 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE EAST
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SFC HI PRES NOW OFF THE CST...WILL CONT TO SLO DRIFT E AWAY FM THE
CST THROUGH TDA. CLOUDS CONT TO INCRS...THICKEN...AND LWR FM THE
SW AS GULF COAST MOISTURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFT NE
THROUGH THE SE CONUS...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. XPCG MUCH OF THE DAY TO BE DRY...BUT
SOME RAIN SHOULD ARRIVE IN FAR SW PORTIONS OF LATE IN THE DAY.
WILL CONT W/ INCRSG POPS TO 50-60% POPS SW LATE IN THE DAY...W/
RIBBON OF 30-40% POP FROM THE NW PIEDMONT THROUGH NE NC. HI TEMPS
RANGING FM THE M50S NW TO L60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WILL CROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TNGT. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE (PWTRS INCRSG TO 1.5 TO
2 IN 00-06Z/24 PER 00Z/23 GFS) WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DUE TO A
STRONG NEARLY 70KT LLJ. POPS FOR RAIN DURING THE 12HR PERIOD TNGT
WILL CONT AT 100%. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
COASTAL NE NC (NOT READY TO ADD TO OTHER AREAS - ESP ERN VA/LWR SE
MD BUT WOULDN`T RULE IT OUT)...AND SPC HAS OUTLINED THAT AREA
(CSTL NE NC) IN SLGT CHC SVR. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
6HR PRESSURE FALLS OF -6MB TO -10MB GFS WILL RESULT IN
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE COAST.
GUSTS FROM THE SSE DIRECTION OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. LO
TEMPS TNGT SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 50S...WITH READINGS LIKELY TO
RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG FORCING AND SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
SHOULD RESULT IN A ~6HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAIN TNGT...WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS AVERAGING 0.5 TO 0.75 IN
N/CNTRL AND 1.00-1.25 IN NR THE CST (AND NE NC).

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION BY 12Z/25...W/ A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE FAR WRN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUE. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING...WITH A GUSTY SW WIND
DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S (SEE THE
THE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS). WILL LIMIT ANY POPS TO FAR
ESE AREAS OF FA AS 00Z/23 NAM RMNS OUTLIER IN LINGERING MOISTURE
ACRS THOSE LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS XPCD INLAND...WITH PSBL CLOUDS LINGERING RIGHT ALG THE
COAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TUE. HIGHS TUE
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER MORNING
LOWS FROM THE MID 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z/23 RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF COMING MORE INTO LINE WRT PTNTL
LO PRES DEVELOPING ALG STALLED FNTL BNDRY NR THE SE CONUS CST LT
TUE/TUE NGT...THEN TRACKING NNE ALG THE CST WED INTO WED NGT. A
BUSY PD OF TRAVEL MIDWEEK INCRSLY LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY
RA...AND AS PTNTL CSTL STM WINDS DOWN (LT WED/WED NGT)...MDL TEMP
PROFILES SUGGEST PSBL RA ENDING AS WET SN INLAND. HAVE NUDGED POPS
UP TO 70-80% E PORTION W...40-60% INLAND ON WED.

PCPN/MOIST THEN MOVES E OF THE AREA AND OFF THE CST LATER WED
WED NGT...WITH POPS DIMINISHING FM W TO E. A MAINLY DRY FRONT
SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO EARLY FRI MORNG. HI PRES WILL
THEN BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI THRU SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE L40S W AND M/U40S E WED...IN THE U40S TO L50S THU...IN THE
M/U40S FRI...AND RANGE THRU THE 40S SAT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LWR 40S WED MORNG...IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S THU AND
FRI MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S SAT MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONT ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL PERSIST INTO SUN
MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVD OFFSHORE OF VA/NC AND WNDS
AROUND THE HIGH ARE SE-SW OVER THE REGION AND GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 KTS. MEANWHILE...LOTS OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE SE AND GULF STATES
WILL PUSH NORTH INTO THE MID ATL REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
SUN.

A MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL HELP FORM A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE SE US AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVES NE OUT OF THE GOMEX
ON SUN. THIS WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AS A WARM FRONT
SURGES THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS(POSSIBLY
LOWER) DUE TO LOWERED CEILINGS AND REDUCED VIS DUE TO RAIN.
ALSO...WIND GUST TO 35KT MAY BE POSSIBLE MON MORNING AS THE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE OVER NE NC/SE VA.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE HOISTED SCA`S FOR THE ENTIRE WTRS STARTING SUN EVENG...AND
LASTING THRU MON AFTN/EVENG OR MON NGT FOR THE CHES BAY/CURRITUCK
SND AND THE CSTL WTRS. HI PRES SLIDES OUT TO SEA DURING SUN...WITH
LO PRES MOVNG FM THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY NNE THRU THE GRT LKS AND
INTO ERN CANADA SUN EVENG INTO MON NGT. SE OR S WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACRS THE WTRS/REGION LATE SUN INTO MON MORNG IN ADVANCE
OF A COLD FRONT. SE OR S WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO/ARND
30 KNOTS EXPECTED SUN EVENG INTO MON EVENG...WITH WAVES BLDNG TO 3
TO 5 FT IN THE CHES BAY...AND SEAS BLDNG TO 5 TO 8 FEET ON THE
CSTL WTRS. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WTRS MON NGT...WITH CALMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE INTO TUE NGT. STRONG NE OR N WINDS THEN
EXPECTED WED INTO WED NGT...AS LO PRES TRACKS NWRD JUST OFF THE
EAST CST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ633-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ630>632.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...ALB/TMG
AVIATION...DAP/JEF
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...AKQ













































000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230746
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
246 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE EAST
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SFC HI PRES NOW OFF THE CST...WILL CONT TO SLO DRIFT E AWAY FM THE
CST THROUGH TDA. CLOUDS CONT TO INCRS...THICKEN...AND LWR FM THE
SW AS GULF COAST MOISTURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFT NE
THROUGH THE SE CONUS...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. XPCG MUCH OF THE DAY TO BE DRY...BUT
SOME RAIN SHOULD ARRIVE IN FAR SW PORTIONS OF LATE IN THE DAY.
WILL CONT W/ INCRSG POPS TO 50-60% POPS SW LATE IN THE DAY...W/
RIBBON OF 30-40% POP FROM THE NW PIEDMONT THROUGH NE NC. HI TEMPS
RANGING FM THE M50S NW TO L60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WILL CROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TNGT. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE (PWTRS INCRSG TO 1.5 TO
2 IN 00-06Z/24 PER 00Z/23 GFS) WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DUE TO A
STRONG NEARLY 70KT LLJ. POPS FOR RAIN DURING THE 12HR PERIOD TNGT
WILL CONT AT 100%. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
COASTAL NE NC (NOT READY TO ADD TO OTHER AREAS - ESP ERN VA/LWR SE
MD BUT WOULDN`T RULE IT OUT)...AND SPC HAS OUTLINED THAT AREA
(CSTL NE NC) IN SLGT CHC SVR. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
6HR PRESSURE FALLS OF -6MB TO -10MB GFS WILL RESULT IN
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE COAST.
GUSTS FROM THE SSE DIRECTION OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. LO
TEMPS TNGT SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 50S...WITH READINGS LIKELY TO
RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG FORCING AND SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
SHOULD RESULT IN A ~6HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAIN TNGT...WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS AVERAGING 0.5 TO 0.75 IN
N/CNTRL AND 1.00-1.25 IN NR THE CST (AND NE NC).

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION BY 12Z/25...W/ A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE FAR WRN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUE. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING...WITH A GUSTY SW WIND
DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S (SEE THE
THE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS). WILL LIMIT ANY POPS TO FAR
ESE AREAS OF FA AS 00Z/23 NAM RMNS OUTLIER IN LINGERING MOISTURE
ACRS THOSE LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS XPCD INLAND...WITH PSBL CLOUDS LINGERING RIGHT ALG THE
COAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TUE. HIGHS TUE
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER MORNING
LOWS FROM THE MID 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z/23 RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF COMING MORE INTO LINE WRT PTNTL
LO PRES DEVELOPING ALG STALLED FNTL BNDRY NR THE SE CONUS CST LT
TUE/TUE NGT...THEN TRACKING NNE ALG THE CST WED INTO WED NGT. A
BUSY PD OF TRAVEL MIDWEEK INCRSLY LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY
RA...AND AS PTNTL CSTL STM WINDS DOWN (LT WED/WED NGT)...MDL TEMP
PROFILES SUGGEST PSBL RA ENDING AS WET SN INLAND. HAVE NUDGED POPS
UP TO 70-80% E PORTION W...40-60% INLAND ON WED.

PCPN/MOIST THEN MOVES E OF THE AREA AND OFF THE CST LATER WED
WED NGT...WITH POPS DIMINISHING FM W TO E. A MAINLY DRY FRONT
SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO EARLY FRI MORNG. HI PRES WILL
THEN BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI THRU SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE L40S W AND M/U40S E WED...IN THE U40S TO L50S THU...IN THE
M/U40S FRI...AND RANGE THRU THE 40S SAT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LWR 40S WED MORNG...IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S THU AND
FRI MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S SAT MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONT ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL PERSIST INTO SUN
MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVD OFFSHORE OF VA/NC AND WNDS
AROUND THE HIGH ARE SE-SW OVER THE REGION AND GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 KTS. MEANWHILE...LOTS OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE SE AND GULF STATES
WILL PUSH NORTH INTO THE MID ATL REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
SUN.

A MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL HELP FORM A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE SE US AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVES NE OUT OF THE GOMEX
ON SUN. THIS WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AS A WARM FRONT
SURGES THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS(POSSIBLY
LOWER) DUE TO LOWERED CEILINGS AND REDUCED VIS DUE TO RAIN.
ALSO...WIND GUST TO 35KT MAY BE POSSIBLE MON MORNING AS THE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE OVER NE NC/SE VA.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE HOISTED SCA`S FOR THE ENTIRE WTRS STARTING SUN EVENG...AND
LASTING THRU MON AFTN/EVENG OR MON NGT FOR THE CHES BAY/CURRITUCK
SND AND THE CSTL WTRS. HI PRES SLIDES OUT TO SEA DURING SUN...WITH
LO PRES MOVNG FM THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY NNE THRU THE GRT LKS AND
INTO ERN CANADA SUN EVENG INTO MON NGT. SE OR S WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACRS THE WTRS/REGION LATE SUN INTO MON MORNG IN ADVANCE
OF A COLD FRONT. SE OR S WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO/ARND
30 KNOTS EXPECTED SUN EVENG INTO MON EVENG...WITH WAVES BLDNG TO 3
TO 5 FT IN THE CHES BAY...AND SEAS BLDNG TO 5 TO 8 FEET ON THE
CSTL WTRS. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WTRS MON NGT...WITH CALMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE INTO TUE NGT. STRONG NE OR N WINDS THEN
EXPECTED WED INTO WED NGT...AS LO PRES TRACKS NWRD JUST OFF THE
EAST CST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ633-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ630>632.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...ALB/TMG
AVIATION...DAP/JEF
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...AKQ













































000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230746
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
246 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE EAST
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SFC HI PRES NOW OFF THE CST...WILL CONT TO SLO DRIFT E AWAY FM THE
CST THROUGH TDA. CLOUDS CONT TO INCRS...THICKEN...AND LWR FM THE
SW AS GULF COAST MOISTURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFT NE
THROUGH THE SE CONUS...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. XPCG MUCH OF THE DAY TO BE DRY...BUT
SOME RAIN SHOULD ARRIVE IN FAR SW PORTIONS OF LATE IN THE DAY.
WILL CONT W/ INCRSG POPS TO 50-60% POPS SW LATE IN THE DAY...W/
RIBBON OF 30-40% POP FROM THE NW PIEDMONT THROUGH NE NC. HI TEMPS
RANGING FM THE M50S NW TO L60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WILL CROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TNGT. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE (PWTRS INCRSG TO 1.5 TO
2 IN 00-06Z/24 PER 00Z/23 GFS) WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DUE TO A
STRONG NEARLY 70KT LLJ. POPS FOR RAIN DURING THE 12HR PERIOD TNGT
WILL CONT AT 100%. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
COASTAL NE NC (NOT READY TO ADD TO OTHER AREAS - ESP ERN VA/LWR SE
MD BUT WOULDN`T RULE IT OUT)...AND SPC HAS OUTLINED THAT AREA
(CSTL NE NC) IN SLGT CHC SVR. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
6HR PRESSURE FALLS OF -6MB TO -10MB GFS WILL RESULT IN
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE COAST.
GUSTS FROM THE SSE DIRECTION OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. LO
TEMPS TNGT SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 50S...WITH READINGS LIKELY TO
RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG FORCING AND SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
SHOULD RESULT IN A ~6HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAIN TNGT...WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS AVERAGING 0.5 TO 0.75 IN
N/CNTRL AND 1.00-1.25 IN NR THE CST (AND NE NC).

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION BY 12Z/25...W/ A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE FAR WRN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUE. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING...WITH A GUSTY SW WIND
DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S (SEE THE
THE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS). WILL LIMIT ANY POPS TO FAR
ESE AREAS OF FA AS 00Z/23 NAM RMNS OUTLIER IN LINGERING MOISTURE
ACRS THOSE LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS XPCD INLAND...WITH PSBL CLOUDS LINGERING RIGHT ALG THE
COAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TUE. HIGHS TUE
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER MORNING
LOWS FROM THE MID 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z/23 RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF COMING MORE INTO LINE WRT PTNTL
LO PRES DEVELOPING ALG STALLED FNTL BNDRY NR THE SE CONUS CST LT
TUE/TUE NGT...THEN TRACKING NNE ALG THE CST WED INTO WED NGT. A
BUSY PD OF TRAVEL MIDWEEK INCRSLY LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY
RA...AND AS PTNTL CSTL STM WINDS DOWN (LT WED/WED NGT)...MDL TEMP
PROFILES SUGGEST PSBL RA ENDING AS WET SN INLAND. HAVE NUDGED POPS
UP TO 70-80% E PORTION W...40-60% INLAND ON WED.

PCPN/MOIST THEN MOVES E OF THE AREA AND OFF THE CST LATER WED
WED NGT...WITH POPS DIMINISHING FM W TO E. A MAINLY DRY FRONT
SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO EARLY FRI MORNG. HI PRES WILL
THEN BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI THRU SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE L40S W AND M/U40S E WED...IN THE U40S TO L50S THU...IN THE
M/U40S FRI...AND RANGE THRU THE 40S SAT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LWR 40S WED MORNG...IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S THU AND
FRI MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S SAT MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONT ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL PERSIST INTO SUN
MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVD OFFSHORE OF VA/NC AND WNDS
AROUND THE HIGH ARE SE-SW OVER THE REGION AND GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 KTS. MEANWHILE...LOTS OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE SE AND GULF STATES
WILL PUSH NORTH INTO THE MID ATL REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
SUN.

A MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL HELP FORM A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE SE US AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVES NE OUT OF THE GOMEX
ON SUN. THIS WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AS A WARM FRONT
SURGES THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS(POSSIBLY
LOWER) DUE TO LOWERED CEILINGS AND REDUCED VIS DUE TO RAIN.
ALSO...WIND GUST TO 35KT MAY BE POSSIBLE MON MORNING AS THE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE OVER NE NC/SE VA.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE HOISTED SCA`S FOR THE ENTIRE WTRS STARTING SUN EVENG...AND
LASTING THRU MON AFTN/EVENG OR MON NGT FOR THE CHES BAY/CURRITUCK
SND AND THE CSTL WTRS. HI PRES SLIDES OUT TO SEA DURING SUN...WITH
LO PRES MOVNG FM THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY NNE THRU THE GRT LKS AND
INTO ERN CANADA SUN EVENG INTO MON NGT. SE OR S WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACRS THE WTRS/REGION LATE SUN INTO MON MORNG IN ADVANCE
OF A COLD FRONT. SE OR S WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO/ARND
30 KNOTS EXPECTED SUN EVENG INTO MON EVENG...WITH WAVES BLDNG TO 3
TO 5 FT IN THE CHES BAY...AND SEAS BLDNG TO 5 TO 8 FEET ON THE
CSTL WTRS. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WTRS MON NGT...WITH CALMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE INTO TUE NGT. STRONG NE OR N WINDS THEN
EXPECTED WED INTO WED NGT...AS LO PRES TRACKS NWRD JUST OFF THE
EAST CST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ633-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ630>632.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...ALB/TMG
AVIATION...DAP/JEF
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...AKQ













































000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230731
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
231 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE STREAMS NORTH THIS MORNING. A WARMING
TREND TODAY BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN
TONIGHT. WINDY AND WARM MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND AT LEAST SOME SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW
RESULTING IN TEMPS PLATEAUING AND IN SOME CASES EVEN COMING UP A
DEGREE OR TWO. READINGS COMMONLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ARE A
FAR CRY FROM 24 HRS AGO WHERE WE HAD MID TO LOW TEENS.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE FIRST WEAK WAVE EXITING OUR NE
COUNTIES WHILE THE NEXT WAVE BEGINS TO STREAM IN FROM OHIO.
WITH H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS FROM CURRENTLY
240DEG...EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO SKIRT ALONG THE NWRN PERIPHERY
OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDDAY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER INTENSIFYING SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.
EXPECTING DAYTIME HIGHS TO RANGE ABOUT 8-10F ABOVE AVERAGE.

A DEEPENING LOW PUSHES OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS TONIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES BY MON MORNING. AS
THE LOW MOVES UP THE MS VALLEY IT WILL GATHER COPIOUS GULF
MOISTURE THAT WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH A
WARM FRONT. STRONG SE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC...IN THE FORM OF A
60+ KT H85 JET...WILL SET UP DOWNSLOPING FROM THE RIDGES AND
COULD DELAY THE ONSET OF RAIN BY AN HOUR OR TWO. BY 03Z
MON...HOWEVER...RAINSHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA AS THE LOW PIVOTS NORTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH THE
STOUT H85 JET PERSISTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE RIDGES BETWEEN
00-06Z...THE BL SHOULD DECOUPLE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE HIGHEST WINDS
ALOFT. EXPECTING TO SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE 20-30KT
RANGE...BUT WILL NOT BE ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROAD UPR TROF WL CONT TO DVLP AND ADVN ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS
THRU THE WKEND. A SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF
AND ADVN ACRS THE OH VLY AND GT LKS RGN SUN NGT. WITH SUFFICIENT
DEEP MOISTURE...LLVL JET AND UPR SPPRT MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL RAIN
CHCS WITH IT/S PASSAGE.

THE MAIN UPR TROF IS EXPD TO SLOWLY ADVN INTO THE GT LKS TO MS VLY
RGN BY ERLY NXT WK. ANOTHER SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS
PROGGED FOR A MON PASSAGE. MSTR IS EXPD TO BE LTD WITH FROPA SO
MAINTAINED CHC POPS WITH THIS FEATURE. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WNDS
ARE EXPD MON AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS ARND A DEEPENING UPR GT
LKS SFC LOW.

COLD ADVCTN IS EXPD MON NGT INTO TUE UNDER THE BROAD UPR TROF.
BNDRY LYR FLOW IS PROGGED TO RMN SW SO NO LK CONNECTION IS EXPD.
ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SNW SHWRS IN THE RIDGES
BUT WITH MOISTURE DEPTH LTD ONLY INCLUDED SLGT CHC POPS. AFT WELL
ABV AVG TEMPS ERLY IN THE PD...EXP READINGS BLO SEASONAL LVLS
AGAIN BY TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
EASTERN STATES SIT UNDER A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECTING GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SRLY WINDS TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO STRONGER SERLY
WINDS TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. POSSIBLE
MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH WARM
FRONT RAIN. GUSTY SRLY WINDS EXPECTED TO THEN PERSIST INTO MON.
TAX

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230731
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
231 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE STREAMS NORTH THIS MORNING. A WARMING
TREND TODAY BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN
TONIGHT. WINDY AND WARM MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND AT LEAST SOME SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW
RESULTING IN TEMPS PLATEAUING AND IN SOME CASES EVEN COMING UP A
DEGREE OR TWO. READINGS COMMONLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ARE A
FAR CRY FROM 24 HRS AGO WHERE WE HAD MID TO LOW TEENS.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE FIRST WEAK WAVE EXITING OUR NE
COUNTIES WHILE THE NEXT WAVE BEGINS TO STREAM IN FROM OHIO.
WITH H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS FROM CURRENTLY
240DEG...EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO SKIRT ALONG THE NWRN PERIPHERY
OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDDAY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER INTENSIFYING SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.
EXPECTING DAYTIME HIGHS TO RANGE ABOUT 8-10F ABOVE AVERAGE.

A DEEPENING LOW PUSHES OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS TONIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES BY MON MORNING. AS
THE LOW MOVES UP THE MS VALLEY IT WILL GATHER COPIOUS GULF
MOISTURE THAT WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH A
WARM FRONT. STRONG SE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC...IN THE FORM OF A
60+ KT H85 JET...WILL SET UP DOWNSLOPING FROM THE RIDGES AND
COULD DELAY THE ONSET OF RAIN BY AN HOUR OR TWO. BY 03Z
MON...HOWEVER...RAINSHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA AS THE LOW PIVOTS NORTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH THE
STOUT H85 JET PERSISTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE RIDGES BETWEEN
00-06Z...THE BL SHOULD DECOUPLE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE HIGHEST WINDS
ALOFT. EXPECTING TO SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE 20-30KT
RANGE...BUT WILL NOT BE ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROAD UPR TROF WL CONT TO DVLP AND ADVN ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS
THRU THE WKEND. A SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF
AND ADVN ACRS THE OH VLY AND GT LKS RGN SUN NGT. WITH SUFFICIENT
DEEP MOISTURE...LLVL JET AND UPR SPPRT MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL RAIN
CHCS WITH IT/S PASSAGE.

THE MAIN UPR TROF IS EXPD TO SLOWLY ADVN INTO THE GT LKS TO MS VLY
RGN BY ERLY NXT WK. ANOTHER SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS
PROGGED FOR A MON PASSAGE. MSTR IS EXPD TO BE LTD WITH FROPA SO
MAINTAINED CHC POPS WITH THIS FEATURE. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WNDS
ARE EXPD MON AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS ARND A DEEPENING UPR GT
LKS SFC LOW.

COLD ADVCTN IS EXPD MON NGT INTO TUE UNDER THE BROAD UPR TROF.
BNDRY LYR FLOW IS PROGGED TO RMN SW SO NO LK CONNECTION IS EXPD.
ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SNW SHWRS IN THE RIDGES
BUT WITH MOISTURE DEPTH LTD ONLY INCLUDED SLGT CHC POPS. AFT WELL
ABV AVG TEMPS ERLY IN THE PD...EXP READINGS BLO SEASONAL LVLS
AGAIN BY TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
EASTERN STATES SIT UNDER A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECTING GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SRLY WINDS TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO STRONGER SERLY
WINDS TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. POSSIBLE
MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH WARM
FRONT RAIN. GUSTY SRLY WINDS EXPECTED TO THEN PERSIST INTO MON.
TAX

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230731
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
231 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE STREAMS NORTH THIS MORNING. A WARMING
TREND TODAY BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN
TONIGHT. WINDY AND WARM MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND AT LEAST SOME SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW
RESULTING IN TEMPS PLATEAUING AND IN SOME CASES EVEN COMING UP A
DEGREE OR TWO. READINGS COMMONLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ARE A
FAR CRY FROM 24 HRS AGO WHERE WE HAD MID TO LOW TEENS.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE FIRST WEAK WAVE EXITING OUR NE
COUNTIES WHILE THE NEXT WAVE BEGINS TO STREAM IN FROM OHIO.
WITH H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS FROM CURRENTLY
240DEG...EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO SKIRT ALONG THE NWRN PERIPHERY
OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDDAY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER INTENSIFYING SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.
EXPECTING DAYTIME HIGHS TO RANGE ABOUT 8-10F ABOVE AVERAGE.

A DEEPENING LOW PUSHES OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS TONIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES BY MON MORNING. AS
THE LOW MOVES UP THE MS VALLEY IT WILL GATHER COPIOUS GULF
MOISTURE THAT WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH A
WARM FRONT. STRONG SE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC...IN THE FORM OF A
60+ KT H85 JET...WILL SET UP DOWNSLOPING FROM THE RIDGES AND
COULD DELAY THE ONSET OF RAIN BY AN HOUR OR TWO. BY 03Z
MON...HOWEVER...RAINSHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA AS THE LOW PIVOTS NORTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH THE
STOUT H85 JET PERSISTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE RIDGES BETWEEN
00-06Z...THE BL SHOULD DECOUPLE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE HIGHEST WINDS
ALOFT. EXPECTING TO SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE 20-30KT
RANGE...BUT WILL NOT BE ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROAD UPR TROF WL CONT TO DVLP AND ADVN ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS
THRU THE WKEND. A SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF
AND ADVN ACRS THE OH VLY AND GT LKS RGN SUN NGT. WITH SUFFICIENT
DEEP MOISTURE...LLVL JET AND UPR SPPRT MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL RAIN
CHCS WITH IT/S PASSAGE.

THE MAIN UPR TROF IS EXPD TO SLOWLY ADVN INTO THE GT LKS TO MS VLY
RGN BY ERLY NXT WK. ANOTHER SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS
PROGGED FOR A MON PASSAGE. MSTR IS EXPD TO BE LTD WITH FROPA SO
MAINTAINED CHC POPS WITH THIS FEATURE. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WNDS
ARE EXPD MON AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS ARND A DEEPENING UPR GT
LKS SFC LOW.

COLD ADVCTN IS EXPD MON NGT INTO TUE UNDER THE BROAD UPR TROF.
BNDRY LYR FLOW IS PROGGED TO RMN SW SO NO LK CONNECTION IS EXPD.
ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SNW SHWRS IN THE RIDGES
BUT WITH MOISTURE DEPTH LTD ONLY INCLUDED SLGT CHC POPS. AFT WELL
ABV AVG TEMPS ERLY IN THE PD...EXP READINGS BLO SEASONAL LVLS
AGAIN BY TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
EASTERN STATES SIT UNDER A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECTING GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SRLY WINDS TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO STRONGER SERLY
WINDS TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. POSSIBLE
MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH WARM
FRONT RAIN. GUSTY SRLY WINDS EXPECTED TO THEN PERSIST INTO MON.
TAX

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230731
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
231 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE STREAMS NORTH THIS MORNING. A WARMING
TREND TODAY BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN
TONIGHT. WINDY AND WARM MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND AT LEAST SOME SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW
RESULTING IN TEMPS PLATEAUING AND IN SOME CASES EVEN COMING UP A
DEGREE OR TWO. READINGS COMMONLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ARE A
FAR CRY FROM 24 HRS AGO WHERE WE HAD MID TO LOW TEENS.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE FIRST WEAK WAVE EXITING OUR NE
COUNTIES WHILE THE NEXT WAVE BEGINS TO STREAM IN FROM OHIO.
WITH H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS FROM CURRENTLY
240DEG...EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO SKIRT ALONG THE NWRN PERIPHERY
OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDDAY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER INTENSIFYING SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.
EXPECTING DAYTIME HIGHS TO RANGE ABOUT 8-10F ABOVE AVERAGE.

A DEEPENING LOW PUSHES OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS TONIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES BY MON MORNING. AS
THE LOW MOVES UP THE MS VALLEY IT WILL GATHER COPIOUS GULF
MOISTURE THAT WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH A
WARM FRONT. STRONG SE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC...IN THE FORM OF A
60+ KT H85 JET...WILL SET UP DOWNSLOPING FROM THE RIDGES AND
COULD DELAY THE ONSET OF RAIN BY AN HOUR OR TWO. BY 03Z
MON...HOWEVER...RAINSHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA AS THE LOW PIVOTS NORTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH THE
STOUT H85 JET PERSISTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE RIDGES BETWEEN
00-06Z...THE BL SHOULD DECOUPLE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE HIGHEST WINDS
ALOFT. EXPECTING TO SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE 20-30KT
RANGE...BUT WILL NOT BE ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROAD UPR TROF WL CONT TO DVLP AND ADVN ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS
THRU THE WKEND. A SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF
AND ADVN ACRS THE OH VLY AND GT LKS RGN SUN NGT. WITH SUFFICIENT
DEEP MOISTURE...LLVL JET AND UPR SPPRT MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL RAIN
CHCS WITH IT/S PASSAGE.

THE MAIN UPR TROF IS EXPD TO SLOWLY ADVN INTO THE GT LKS TO MS VLY
RGN BY ERLY NXT WK. ANOTHER SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS
PROGGED FOR A MON PASSAGE. MSTR IS EXPD TO BE LTD WITH FROPA SO
MAINTAINED CHC POPS WITH THIS FEATURE. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WNDS
ARE EXPD MON AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS ARND A DEEPENING UPR GT
LKS SFC LOW.

COLD ADVCTN IS EXPD MON NGT INTO TUE UNDER THE BROAD UPR TROF.
BNDRY LYR FLOW IS PROGGED TO RMN SW SO NO LK CONNECTION IS EXPD.
ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SNW SHWRS IN THE RIDGES
BUT WITH MOISTURE DEPTH LTD ONLY INCLUDED SLGT CHC POPS. AFT WELL
ABV AVG TEMPS ERLY IN THE PD...EXP READINGS BLO SEASONAL LVLS
AGAIN BY TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
EASTERN STATES SIT UNDER A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECTING GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SRLY WINDS TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO STRONGER SERLY
WINDS TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. POSSIBLE
MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH WARM
FRONT RAIN. GUSTY SRLY WINDS EXPECTED TO THEN PERSIST INTO MON.
TAX

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230246
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
946 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
940 PM UPDATE...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO ROLL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING. EXPECT THESE TO SLOWLY GET PUSHED
NORTH WITH TIME AS SW FLOW CONTINUES AND PUSHES DRIER AIR
NORTHWARD. THINK THAT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE OVER IL/IN WILL
MAINLY STAY NORTH...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. TEMPERATURES
TWEAKED OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

UPDATED POPS/SKY FOR CURRENT TRENDS. MAINLY SCATTERED SHRA
REMAINING CURRENTLY. EXPECT COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS
EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE ACROSS THE NW LATER TONIGHT WITH
A WEAK SHORTWAVE. ANOTHER BRIEF DRY INTERLUDE SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE RAINFALL RAMPS UP SIGNIFICANTLY BY SUNDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES UPDATED PER LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROAD UPR TROF WL CONT TO DVLP AND ADVN ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS
THRU THE WKEND. A SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF
AND ADVN ACRS THE OH VLY AND GT LKS RGN SUN NGT. WITH SUFFICIENT
DEEP MOISTURE...LLVL JET AND UPR SPPRT MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL RAIN
CHCS WITH IT/S PASSAGE.

THE MAIN UPR TROF IS EXPD TO SLOWLY ADVN INTO THE GT LKS TO MS VLY
RGN BY ERLY NXT WK. ANOTHER SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS
PROGGED FOR A MON PASSAGE. MSTR IS EXPD TO BE LTD WITH FROPA SO
MAINTAINED CHC POPS WITH THIS FEATURE. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WNDS
ARE EXPD MON AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS ARND A DEEPENING UPR GT
LKS SFC LOW.

COLD ADVCTN IS EXPD MON NGT INTO TUE UNDER THE BROAD UPR TROF.
BNDRY LYR FLOW IS PROGGED TO RMN SW SO NO LK CONNECTION IS EXPD.
ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SNW SHWRS IN THE RIDGES
BUT WITH MOISTURE DEPTH LTD ONLY INCLUDED SLGT CHC POPS. AFT WELL
ABV AVG TEMPS ERLY IN THE PD...EXP READINGS BLO SEASONAL LVLS
AGAIN BY TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
EASTERN STATES SIT UNDER A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH AREA NOW COMPLETELY IN THE WARM SECTOR...EXPECT GENERAL VFR
FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISO...NON-RESTRICTIVE SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE THE NORM
THROUGH SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
NEXT STORM MOVES THROUGH. POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230246
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
946 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
940 PM UPDATE...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO ROLL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING. EXPECT THESE TO SLOWLY GET PUSHED
NORTH WITH TIME AS SW FLOW CONTINUES AND PUSHES DRIER AIR
NORTHWARD. THINK THAT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE OVER IL/IN WILL
MAINLY STAY NORTH...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. TEMPERATURES
TWEAKED OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

UPDATED POPS/SKY FOR CURRENT TRENDS. MAINLY SCATTERED SHRA
REMAINING CURRENTLY. EXPECT COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS
EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE ACROSS THE NW LATER TONIGHT WITH
A WEAK SHORTWAVE. ANOTHER BRIEF DRY INTERLUDE SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE RAINFALL RAMPS UP SIGNIFICANTLY BY SUNDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES UPDATED PER LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROAD UPR TROF WL CONT TO DVLP AND ADVN ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS
THRU THE WKEND. A SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF
AND ADVN ACRS THE OH VLY AND GT LKS RGN SUN NGT. WITH SUFFICIENT
DEEP MOISTURE...LLVL JET AND UPR SPPRT MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL RAIN
CHCS WITH IT/S PASSAGE.

THE MAIN UPR TROF IS EXPD TO SLOWLY ADVN INTO THE GT LKS TO MS VLY
RGN BY ERLY NXT WK. ANOTHER SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS
PROGGED FOR A MON PASSAGE. MSTR IS EXPD TO BE LTD WITH FROPA SO
MAINTAINED CHC POPS WITH THIS FEATURE. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WNDS
ARE EXPD MON AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS ARND A DEEPENING UPR GT
LKS SFC LOW.

COLD ADVCTN IS EXPD MON NGT INTO TUE UNDER THE BROAD UPR TROF.
BNDRY LYR FLOW IS PROGGED TO RMN SW SO NO LK CONNECTION IS EXPD.
ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SNW SHWRS IN THE RIDGES
BUT WITH MOISTURE DEPTH LTD ONLY INCLUDED SLGT CHC POPS. AFT WELL
ABV AVG TEMPS ERLY IN THE PD...EXP READINGS BLO SEASONAL LVLS
AGAIN BY TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
EASTERN STATES SIT UNDER A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH AREA NOW COMPLETELY IN THE WARM SECTOR...EXPECT GENERAL VFR
FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISO...NON-RESTRICTIVE SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE THE NORM
THROUGH SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
NEXT STORM MOVES THROUGH. POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 230241
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
941 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EDGING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...DRAWING A STRONG WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH
OUR AREA. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR JAMES BAY MONDAY EVENING AS IT SENDS
A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD STATES. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATER TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINA`S WEDNESDAY AND MOVES EAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON THANKSGIVING.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HEADS SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE FLOW BACKS SOME MORE IN COMBINATION WITH A
SURFACE HIGH SLIDING TO OUR SOUTHEAST, A LARGE AREA OF WAA WILL
OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS IS MORE NOTED TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST
CLOSER TO THE CORE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE WARMING CHIPS AWAY AT THE REMAINING COOLER
AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE. THIS PROCESS IS LEADING TO AN AREA OF
CLOUDINESS THAT CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

THE WAA AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE HAS
BEEN GENERATING AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM CENTRAL NEW
YORK/PENNSYLVANIA ON NORTHEASTWARD. SOME OF THIS WILL MOVE ACROSS
OUR REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES, HOWEVER
WITH THE MAIN LOW- LEVEL JET PASSING TO OUR NORTH ALONG WITH THE
BETTER LIFT THERE, ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AND
SPOTTY. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER DRY LAYER
IN THE LOWEST LEVELS AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK FORCING RESULTS
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THERE IS LITTLE MODEL SUPPORT TO BRING
IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION, AND THE WPC QPF IS PRETTY MUCH DRY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EVENING IN THE COLDEST SPOTS LOOK JUST
WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION.

DID RAISE LOW TEMPERATURES SOME WITH THE LATEST 9:30 PM UPDATE. CLOUD
COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. DOWN IN
THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER OUTSIDE THE CLOUD SHIELD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AMPLIFYING DURING SUNDAY
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME RIDGING TO DEVELOP
DOWNSTREAM, RESULTING IN THE SURFACE HIGH TO BECOME ANCHORED
OFFSHORE. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WITH WAA CONTINUING
AND EVEN STRENGTHENING SOME DURING THE DAY, A WARMER DAY IS
ANTICIPATED.

THE LOCATION OF A LOW-LEVEL JET IN COMBINATION OF SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD KEEP ANY MORNING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH. MEANWHILE, A WARM FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES IN
THE VICINITY OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE THERE
WILL BE SOME CLOUDS AROUND, SOME THINNING SHOULD OCCUR FOR A TIME
BEFORE AN INCREASE DEVELOPS AGAIN TOWARD EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT
ANY ORGANIZED LIFT REMAINS AWAY FROM OUR AREA, THEREFORE WE WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, A GFS/NAM MOS BLEND WAS GENERALLY USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
**RECORD WARMTH MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM/EVENT
 FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY**

ANOTHER HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH NEAR 100W LONGITUDE TO START SUNDAY
NIGHT LIFTS NEWD INTO QUEBEC BY TUESDAY WITH A NEW TROUGH EVOLVING
OVER THE EASTERN USA WEDNESDAY BUT FULL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE SHORT WAVE INTERACTIONS - AMPLITUDE AND TRANSLATION SPEEDS. SO
WHILE A MID ATLANTIC COASTAL WINTER EVENT IS FORECAST, IT IS NOT
YET A LOCK DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UNCERTAINTY. A GENERAL
CYCLONIC FLOW AT MID LEVELS CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES HAVE BEEN BELOW NORMAL SINCE THE
13TH (9 CONSECUTIVE DAYS).  MODELS AGREE ON TEMPS ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY...MAYBE 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY...
BELOW NORMAL WED-FRI AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/22 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT. THEN THE 12Z/22 GFS
MOS IS APPLIED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER (WEDNESDAY
ONWARD) THE 1522Z/22 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES IS BLENDED
50 50 WITH THE 12Z/22 GFS MEXMOS. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED
AGAINST THE 12Z/22 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH
ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/22 SREF 3HRLY POPS
FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/22 GEFS 6HR
POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY NIGHT...WAA WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLY HEAVY FOR A TIME. AN ISOLATED SVR TSTM IS
NOT IMPOSSIBLE IN DEL/NJ WITH SWI -1, TT 48, KI 32 AND 60-70KT
WIND AT 850 MB ON THE ECMWF IN THE 3AM-6 AM (08Z-11Z) TIME FRAME.
12Z NAM HAS SIMILAR ELEVATED INSTABILITY AT 09Z MONDAY. 12Z GFS
LEAST ROBUST OF THE THREE 12Z MODELS MENTIONED. GRIDS HAVE THE CHC
TSTM IN SNJ AND THE DELMARVA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY...WINDY AND WARM (AFTER EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS RACE NE AT 50 KTS (NEAR 60 MPH). RECORD WARMTH
EXPECTED AND SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH. BLENDED TRANSPORT
WIND SUPPORTS 40 MPH GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY 45.

MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MAYBE A LOW TOPPED SPRINKLE OR
SHOWER ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY (MOSTLY CIRRUS)...BREEZY AND
STILL WITH TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY. THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS
PRETTY STABLE THESE PAST TWO CYCLES AND HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
FURTHEST WEST WITH THIS OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. THE 12Z GFS HAS MOVED WEST WITH THE TRACK. NO LOCK ON THE
TRACK SINCE SHORT WAVE INTERACTIONS SHOW VARIABILITY IN THE
ENSEMBLES. STILL...IT LOOKS AS IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMP IS GOING
TO GOVERN WHERE ITS MOSTLY SNOW. DAYTIME TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

ADVISE ALL WITH TRAVEL PLANS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN OUR
FORECAST AREA TO CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS. THIS COULD BECOME
A SNOW STORM FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH PLOWABLE SNOW
AND NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES....ESPECIALLY THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

THAT WOULD MEAN A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DUE TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL AND ONE
OF THE BUSIEST AIR TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR.

IF THIS FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR SUNDAY...BRIEFING PACKAGES WOULD
BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 330 PM.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AS THE PRIME TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...WPC GUIDANCE WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS AS A
LOW LVL WNW FLOW APPEARS TO PREVAIL WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
HEADING ESEWD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.



TONIGHT...VFR, WITH AREAS OF CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 5,000 FEET.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

SUNDAY...VFR, WITH CEILINGS AT TIMES ABOVE 5,000 FEET. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5-10 KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTHEAST LATE.

SUNDAY NIGHT... VFR THROUGH THE EVENING WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND
GRADUALLY LOWERING CEILINGS. LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AFTER 03Z FROM
PHL SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
04Z MON THROUGH 12Z MON...VERY POOR FLYING CONDS WITH MVFR
EXPECTED AND IFR PSBL IF NOT PROBABLE IN PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS.
RAIN COULD BE HVY AT TIMES WITH A POSSIBLE TSTM AFTER 06Z/24
SUNDAY NIGHT. E TO SE WIND COULD GUST IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE
TOWARD 09Z MONDAY. LLWS POTENTIAL AT KACY NEAR 09Z MONDAY. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FT
(AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS RAPIDLY DEPART NEWD BY 14Z). SW WIND
GUST 30-38 KT. CFP/SHIFT MON EVE WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE...ESPECIALLY E PA. MDT CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A COASTAL
LOW. COULD BE VFR IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH EAST OR MVFR/IFR IN RAIN/SNOW
AND WIND IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH W. AS IT STANDS WITH TODAYS MODEL AND
NCEP COLLABORATED GUIDANCE...PLAN ON PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO SOME
SNOW AND A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE LOW TO MODERATE.

THURSDAY...VFR CIGS WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDS IN
SCT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH SUNDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN SOME THROUGH
MUCH OF TONIGHT. A LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO TRACK MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH, HOWEVER THE 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS TONIGHT.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MIXING OCCURS, ALTHOUGH SURFACE
GUSTS MAY BE MARGINAL. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALSO BUILD THE
SEAS, HOWEVER THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS MAY SETUP TO OUR
NORTHEAST. SINCE THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL, WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 11Z SUNDAY FOR ALL BUT THE DELAWARE
BAY. THE CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH
STRONGEST INFLOW SE WINDS OF POTENTIAL 35-40 KT GUSTS NEAR DAWN
MONDAY. WINDS SHIFT SW IN THE WARM SECTOR AND MAY GUST 35 KT ALONG
THE COAST WHERE NEAR RECORD WARMTH PREVAILS.

BLENDED 12Z/22 NAM/GFS TRANSPORT WIND SUPPORTS GALE GUSTS 06Z MONDAY-
02Z TUESDAY. FOR NOW THE GALE WATCH ENDS AT 22Z MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY....A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SCA CONDS AS SEAS
AND WIND EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...PLAN ON SCA CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING AS A COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPS. SMALL POTENTIAL FOR A GALE LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 230241
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
941 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EDGING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...DRAWING A STRONG WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH
OUR AREA. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR JAMES BAY MONDAY EVENING AS IT SENDS
A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD STATES. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATER TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINA`S WEDNESDAY AND MOVES EAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON THANKSGIVING.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HEADS SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE FLOW BACKS SOME MORE IN COMBINATION WITH A
SURFACE HIGH SLIDING TO OUR SOUTHEAST, A LARGE AREA OF WAA WILL
OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS IS MORE NOTED TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST
CLOSER TO THE CORE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE WARMING CHIPS AWAY AT THE REMAINING COOLER
AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE. THIS PROCESS IS LEADING TO AN AREA OF
CLOUDINESS THAT CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

THE WAA AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE HAS
BEEN GENERATING AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM CENTRAL NEW
YORK/PENNSYLVANIA ON NORTHEASTWARD. SOME OF THIS WILL MOVE ACROSS
OUR REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES, HOWEVER
WITH THE MAIN LOW- LEVEL JET PASSING TO OUR NORTH ALONG WITH THE
BETTER LIFT THERE, ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AND
SPOTTY. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER DRY LAYER
IN THE LOWEST LEVELS AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK FORCING RESULTS
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THERE IS LITTLE MODEL SUPPORT TO BRING
IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION, AND THE WPC QPF IS PRETTY MUCH DRY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EVENING IN THE COLDEST SPOTS LOOK JUST
WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION.

DID RAISE LOW TEMPERATURES SOME WITH THE LATEST 9:30 PM UPDATE. CLOUD
COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. DOWN IN
THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER OUTSIDE THE CLOUD SHIELD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AMPLIFYING DURING SUNDAY
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME RIDGING TO DEVELOP
DOWNSTREAM, RESULTING IN THE SURFACE HIGH TO BECOME ANCHORED
OFFSHORE. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WITH WAA CONTINUING
AND EVEN STRENGTHENING SOME DURING THE DAY, A WARMER DAY IS
ANTICIPATED.

THE LOCATION OF A LOW-LEVEL JET IN COMBINATION OF SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD KEEP ANY MORNING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH. MEANWHILE, A WARM FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES IN
THE VICINITY OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE THERE
WILL BE SOME CLOUDS AROUND, SOME THINNING SHOULD OCCUR FOR A TIME
BEFORE AN INCREASE DEVELOPS AGAIN TOWARD EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT
ANY ORGANIZED LIFT REMAINS AWAY FROM OUR AREA, THEREFORE WE WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, A GFS/NAM MOS BLEND WAS GENERALLY USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
**RECORD WARMTH MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM/EVENT
 FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY**

ANOTHER HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH NEAR 100W LONGITUDE TO START SUNDAY
NIGHT LIFTS NEWD INTO QUEBEC BY TUESDAY WITH A NEW TROUGH EVOLVING
OVER THE EASTERN USA WEDNESDAY BUT FULL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE SHORT WAVE INTERACTIONS - AMPLITUDE AND TRANSLATION SPEEDS. SO
WHILE A MID ATLANTIC COASTAL WINTER EVENT IS FORECAST, IT IS NOT
YET A LOCK DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UNCERTAINTY. A GENERAL
CYCLONIC FLOW AT MID LEVELS CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES HAVE BEEN BELOW NORMAL SINCE THE
13TH (9 CONSECUTIVE DAYS).  MODELS AGREE ON TEMPS ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY...MAYBE 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY...
BELOW NORMAL WED-FRI AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/22 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT. THEN THE 12Z/22 GFS
MOS IS APPLIED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER (WEDNESDAY
ONWARD) THE 1522Z/22 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES IS BLENDED
50 50 WITH THE 12Z/22 GFS MEXMOS. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED
AGAINST THE 12Z/22 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH
ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/22 SREF 3HRLY POPS
FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/22 GEFS 6HR
POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY NIGHT...WAA WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLY HEAVY FOR A TIME. AN ISOLATED SVR TSTM IS
NOT IMPOSSIBLE IN DEL/NJ WITH SWI -1, TT 48, KI 32 AND 60-70KT
WIND AT 850 MB ON THE ECMWF IN THE 3AM-6 AM (08Z-11Z) TIME FRAME.
12Z NAM HAS SIMILAR ELEVATED INSTABILITY AT 09Z MONDAY. 12Z GFS
LEAST ROBUST OF THE THREE 12Z MODELS MENTIONED. GRIDS HAVE THE CHC
TSTM IN SNJ AND THE DELMARVA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY...WINDY AND WARM (AFTER EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS RACE NE AT 50 KTS (NEAR 60 MPH). RECORD WARMTH
EXPECTED AND SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH. BLENDED TRANSPORT
WIND SUPPORTS 40 MPH GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY 45.

MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MAYBE A LOW TOPPED SPRINKLE OR
SHOWER ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY (MOSTLY CIRRUS)...BREEZY AND
STILL WITH TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY. THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS
PRETTY STABLE THESE PAST TWO CYCLES AND HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
FURTHEST WEST WITH THIS OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. THE 12Z GFS HAS MOVED WEST WITH THE TRACK. NO LOCK ON THE
TRACK SINCE SHORT WAVE INTERACTIONS SHOW VARIABILITY IN THE
ENSEMBLES. STILL...IT LOOKS AS IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMP IS GOING
TO GOVERN WHERE ITS MOSTLY SNOW. DAYTIME TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

ADVISE ALL WITH TRAVEL PLANS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN OUR
FORECAST AREA TO CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS. THIS COULD BECOME
A SNOW STORM FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH PLOWABLE SNOW
AND NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES....ESPECIALLY THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

THAT WOULD MEAN A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DUE TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL AND ONE
OF THE BUSIEST AIR TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR.

IF THIS FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR SUNDAY...BRIEFING PACKAGES WOULD
BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 330 PM.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AS THE PRIME TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...WPC GUIDANCE WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS AS A
LOW LVL WNW FLOW APPEARS TO PREVAIL WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
HEADING ESEWD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.



TONIGHT...VFR, WITH AREAS OF CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 5,000 FEET.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

SUNDAY...VFR, WITH CEILINGS AT TIMES ABOVE 5,000 FEET. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5-10 KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTHEAST LATE.

SUNDAY NIGHT... VFR THROUGH THE EVENING WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND
GRADUALLY LOWERING CEILINGS. LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AFTER 03Z FROM
PHL SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
04Z MON THROUGH 12Z MON...VERY POOR FLYING CONDS WITH MVFR
EXPECTED AND IFR PSBL IF NOT PROBABLE IN PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS.
RAIN COULD BE HVY AT TIMES WITH A POSSIBLE TSTM AFTER 06Z/24
SUNDAY NIGHT. E TO SE WIND COULD GUST IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE
TOWARD 09Z MONDAY. LLWS POTENTIAL AT KACY NEAR 09Z MONDAY. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FT
(AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS RAPIDLY DEPART NEWD BY 14Z). SW WIND
GUST 30-38 KT. CFP/SHIFT MON EVE WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE...ESPECIALLY E PA. MDT CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A COASTAL
LOW. COULD BE VFR IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH EAST OR MVFR/IFR IN RAIN/SNOW
AND WIND IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH W. AS IT STANDS WITH TODAYS MODEL AND
NCEP COLLABORATED GUIDANCE...PLAN ON PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO SOME
SNOW AND A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE LOW TO MODERATE.

THURSDAY...VFR CIGS WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDS IN
SCT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH SUNDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN SOME THROUGH
MUCH OF TONIGHT. A LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO TRACK MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH, HOWEVER THE 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS TONIGHT.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MIXING OCCURS, ALTHOUGH SURFACE
GUSTS MAY BE MARGINAL. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALSO BUILD THE
SEAS, HOWEVER THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS MAY SETUP TO OUR
NORTHEAST. SINCE THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL, WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 11Z SUNDAY FOR ALL BUT THE DELAWARE
BAY. THE CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH
STRONGEST INFLOW SE WINDS OF POTENTIAL 35-40 KT GUSTS NEAR DAWN
MONDAY. WINDS SHIFT SW IN THE WARM SECTOR AND MAY GUST 35 KT ALONG
THE COAST WHERE NEAR RECORD WARMTH PREVAILS.

BLENDED 12Z/22 NAM/GFS TRANSPORT WIND SUPPORTS GALE GUSTS 06Z MONDAY-
02Z TUESDAY. FOR NOW THE GALE WATCH ENDS AT 22Z MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY....A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SCA CONDS AS SEAS
AND WIND EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...PLAN ON SCA CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING AS A COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPS. SMALL POTENTIAL FOR A GALE LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 230241
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
941 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EDGING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...DRAWING A STRONG WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH
OUR AREA. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR JAMES BAY MONDAY EVENING AS IT SENDS
A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD STATES. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATER TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINA`S WEDNESDAY AND MOVES EAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON THANKSGIVING.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HEADS SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE FLOW BACKS SOME MORE IN COMBINATION WITH A
SURFACE HIGH SLIDING TO OUR SOUTHEAST, A LARGE AREA OF WAA WILL
OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS IS MORE NOTED TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST
CLOSER TO THE CORE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE WARMING CHIPS AWAY AT THE REMAINING COOLER
AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE. THIS PROCESS IS LEADING TO AN AREA OF
CLOUDINESS THAT CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

THE WAA AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE HAS
BEEN GENERATING AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM CENTRAL NEW
YORK/PENNSYLVANIA ON NORTHEASTWARD. SOME OF THIS WILL MOVE ACROSS
OUR REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES, HOWEVER
WITH THE MAIN LOW- LEVEL JET PASSING TO OUR NORTH ALONG WITH THE
BETTER LIFT THERE, ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AND
SPOTTY. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER DRY LAYER
IN THE LOWEST LEVELS AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK FORCING RESULTS
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THERE IS LITTLE MODEL SUPPORT TO BRING
IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION, AND THE WPC QPF IS PRETTY MUCH DRY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EVENING IN THE COLDEST SPOTS LOOK JUST
WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION.

DID RAISE LOW TEMPERATURES SOME WITH THE LATEST 9:30 PM UPDATE. CLOUD
COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. DOWN IN
THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER OUTSIDE THE CLOUD SHIELD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AMPLIFYING DURING SUNDAY
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME RIDGING TO DEVELOP
DOWNSTREAM, RESULTING IN THE SURFACE HIGH TO BECOME ANCHORED
OFFSHORE. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WITH WAA CONTINUING
AND EVEN STRENGTHENING SOME DURING THE DAY, A WARMER DAY IS
ANTICIPATED.

THE LOCATION OF A LOW-LEVEL JET IN COMBINATION OF SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD KEEP ANY MORNING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH. MEANWHILE, A WARM FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES IN
THE VICINITY OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE THERE
WILL BE SOME CLOUDS AROUND, SOME THINNING SHOULD OCCUR FOR A TIME
BEFORE AN INCREASE DEVELOPS AGAIN TOWARD EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT
ANY ORGANIZED LIFT REMAINS AWAY FROM OUR AREA, THEREFORE WE WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, A GFS/NAM MOS BLEND WAS GENERALLY USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
**RECORD WARMTH MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM/EVENT
 FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY**

ANOTHER HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH NEAR 100W LONGITUDE TO START SUNDAY
NIGHT LIFTS NEWD INTO QUEBEC BY TUESDAY WITH A NEW TROUGH EVOLVING
OVER THE EASTERN USA WEDNESDAY BUT FULL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE SHORT WAVE INTERACTIONS - AMPLITUDE AND TRANSLATION SPEEDS. SO
WHILE A MID ATLANTIC COASTAL WINTER EVENT IS FORECAST, IT IS NOT
YET A LOCK DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UNCERTAINTY. A GENERAL
CYCLONIC FLOW AT MID LEVELS CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES HAVE BEEN BELOW NORMAL SINCE THE
13TH (9 CONSECUTIVE DAYS).  MODELS AGREE ON TEMPS ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY...MAYBE 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY...
BELOW NORMAL WED-FRI AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/22 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT. THEN THE 12Z/22 GFS
MOS IS APPLIED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER (WEDNESDAY
ONWARD) THE 1522Z/22 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES IS BLENDED
50 50 WITH THE 12Z/22 GFS MEXMOS. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED
AGAINST THE 12Z/22 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH
ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/22 SREF 3HRLY POPS
FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/22 GEFS 6HR
POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY NIGHT...WAA WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLY HEAVY FOR A TIME. AN ISOLATED SVR TSTM IS
NOT IMPOSSIBLE IN DEL/NJ WITH SWI -1, TT 48, KI 32 AND 60-70KT
WIND AT 850 MB ON THE ECMWF IN THE 3AM-6 AM (08Z-11Z) TIME FRAME.
12Z NAM HAS SIMILAR ELEVATED INSTABILITY AT 09Z MONDAY. 12Z GFS
LEAST ROBUST OF THE THREE 12Z MODELS MENTIONED. GRIDS HAVE THE CHC
TSTM IN SNJ AND THE DELMARVA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY...WINDY AND WARM (AFTER EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS RACE NE AT 50 KTS (NEAR 60 MPH). RECORD WARMTH
EXPECTED AND SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH. BLENDED TRANSPORT
WIND SUPPORTS 40 MPH GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY 45.

MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MAYBE A LOW TOPPED SPRINKLE OR
SHOWER ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY (MOSTLY CIRRUS)...BREEZY AND
STILL WITH TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY. THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS
PRETTY STABLE THESE PAST TWO CYCLES AND HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
FURTHEST WEST WITH THIS OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. THE 12Z GFS HAS MOVED WEST WITH THE TRACK. NO LOCK ON THE
TRACK SINCE SHORT WAVE INTERACTIONS SHOW VARIABILITY IN THE
ENSEMBLES. STILL...IT LOOKS AS IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMP IS GOING
TO GOVERN WHERE ITS MOSTLY SNOW. DAYTIME TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

ADVISE ALL WITH TRAVEL PLANS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN OUR
FORECAST AREA TO CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS. THIS COULD BECOME
A SNOW STORM FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH PLOWABLE SNOW
AND NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES....ESPECIALLY THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

THAT WOULD MEAN A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DUE TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL AND ONE
OF THE BUSIEST AIR TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR.

IF THIS FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR SUNDAY...BRIEFING PACKAGES WOULD
BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 330 PM.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AS THE PRIME TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...WPC GUIDANCE WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS AS A
LOW LVL WNW FLOW APPEARS TO PREVAIL WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
HEADING ESEWD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.



TONIGHT...VFR, WITH AREAS OF CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 5,000 FEET.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

SUNDAY...VFR, WITH CEILINGS AT TIMES ABOVE 5,000 FEET. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5-10 KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTHEAST LATE.

SUNDAY NIGHT... VFR THROUGH THE EVENING WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND
GRADUALLY LOWERING CEILINGS. LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AFTER 03Z FROM
PHL SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
04Z MON THROUGH 12Z MON...VERY POOR FLYING CONDS WITH MVFR
EXPECTED AND IFR PSBL IF NOT PROBABLE IN PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS.
RAIN COULD BE HVY AT TIMES WITH A POSSIBLE TSTM AFTER 06Z/24
SUNDAY NIGHT. E TO SE WIND COULD GUST IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE
TOWARD 09Z MONDAY. LLWS POTENTIAL AT KACY NEAR 09Z MONDAY. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FT
(AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS RAPIDLY DEPART NEWD BY 14Z). SW WIND
GUST 30-38 KT. CFP/SHIFT MON EVE WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE...ESPECIALLY E PA. MDT CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A COASTAL
LOW. COULD BE VFR IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH EAST OR MVFR/IFR IN RAIN/SNOW
AND WIND IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH W. AS IT STANDS WITH TODAYS MODEL AND
NCEP COLLABORATED GUIDANCE...PLAN ON PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO SOME
SNOW AND A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE LOW TO MODERATE.

THURSDAY...VFR CIGS WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDS IN
SCT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH SUNDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN SOME THROUGH
MUCH OF TONIGHT. A LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO TRACK MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH, HOWEVER THE 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS TONIGHT.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MIXING OCCURS, ALTHOUGH SURFACE
GUSTS MAY BE MARGINAL. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALSO BUILD THE
SEAS, HOWEVER THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS MAY SETUP TO OUR
NORTHEAST. SINCE THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL, WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 11Z SUNDAY FOR ALL BUT THE DELAWARE
BAY. THE CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH
STRONGEST INFLOW SE WINDS OF POTENTIAL 35-40 KT GUSTS NEAR DAWN
MONDAY. WINDS SHIFT SW IN THE WARM SECTOR AND MAY GUST 35 KT ALONG
THE COAST WHERE NEAR RECORD WARMTH PREVAILS.

BLENDED 12Z/22 NAM/GFS TRANSPORT WIND SUPPORTS GALE GUSTS 06Z MONDAY-
02Z TUESDAY. FOR NOW THE GALE WATCH ENDS AT 22Z MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY....A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SCA CONDS AS SEAS
AND WIND EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...PLAN ON SCA CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING AS A COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPS. SMALL POTENTIAL FOR A GALE LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 230241
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
941 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EDGING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...DRAWING A STRONG WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH
OUR AREA. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR JAMES BAY MONDAY EVENING AS IT SENDS
A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD STATES. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATER TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINA`S WEDNESDAY AND MOVES EAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON THANKSGIVING.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HEADS SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE FLOW BACKS SOME MORE IN COMBINATION WITH A
SURFACE HIGH SLIDING TO OUR SOUTHEAST, A LARGE AREA OF WAA WILL
OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS IS MORE NOTED TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST
CLOSER TO THE CORE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE WARMING CHIPS AWAY AT THE REMAINING COOLER
AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE. THIS PROCESS IS LEADING TO AN AREA OF
CLOUDINESS THAT CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

THE WAA AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE HAS
BEEN GENERATING AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM CENTRAL NEW
YORK/PENNSYLVANIA ON NORTHEASTWARD. SOME OF THIS WILL MOVE ACROSS
OUR REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES, HOWEVER
WITH THE MAIN LOW- LEVEL JET PASSING TO OUR NORTH ALONG WITH THE
BETTER LIFT THERE, ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AND
SPOTTY. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER DRY LAYER
IN THE LOWEST LEVELS AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK FORCING RESULTS
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THERE IS LITTLE MODEL SUPPORT TO BRING
IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION, AND THE WPC QPF IS PRETTY MUCH DRY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EVENING IN THE COLDEST SPOTS LOOK JUST
WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION.

DID RAISE LOW TEMPERATURES SOME WITH THE LATEST 9:30 PM UPDATE. CLOUD
COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. DOWN IN
THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER OUTSIDE THE CLOUD SHIELD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AMPLIFYING DURING SUNDAY
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME RIDGING TO DEVELOP
DOWNSTREAM, RESULTING IN THE SURFACE HIGH TO BECOME ANCHORED
OFFSHORE. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WITH WAA CONTINUING
AND EVEN STRENGTHENING SOME DURING THE DAY, A WARMER DAY IS
ANTICIPATED.

THE LOCATION OF A LOW-LEVEL JET IN COMBINATION OF SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD KEEP ANY MORNING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH. MEANWHILE, A WARM FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES IN
THE VICINITY OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE THERE
WILL BE SOME CLOUDS AROUND, SOME THINNING SHOULD OCCUR FOR A TIME
BEFORE AN INCREASE DEVELOPS AGAIN TOWARD EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT
ANY ORGANIZED LIFT REMAINS AWAY FROM OUR AREA, THEREFORE WE WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, A GFS/NAM MOS BLEND WAS GENERALLY USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
**RECORD WARMTH MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM/EVENT
 FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY**

ANOTHER HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH NEAR 100W LONGITUDE TO START SUNDAY
NIGHT LIFTS NEWD INTO QUEBEC BY TUESDAY WITH A NEW TROUGH EVOLVING
OVER THE EASTERN USA WEDNESDAY BUT FULL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE SHORT WAVE INTERACTIONS - AMPLITUDE AND TRANSLATION SPEEDS. SO
WHILE A MID ATLANTIC COASTAL WINTER EVENT IS FORECAST, IT IS NOT
YET A LOCK DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UNCERTAINTY. A GENERAL
CYCLONIC FLOW AT MID LEVELS CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES HAVE BEEN BELOW NORMAL SINCE THE
13TH (9 CONSECUTIVE DAYS).  MODELS AGREE ON TEMPS ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY...MAYBE 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY...
BELOW NORMAL WED-FRI AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/22 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT. THEN THE 12Z/22 GFS
MOS IS APPLIED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER (WEDNESDAY
ONWARD) THE 1522Z/22 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES IS BLENDED
50 50 WITH THE 12Z/22 GFS MEXMOS. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED
AGAINST THE 12Z/22 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH
ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/22 SREF 3HRLY POPS
FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/22 GEFS 6HR
POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY NIGHT...WAA WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLY HEAVY FOR A TIME. AN ISOLATED SVR TSTM IS
NOT IMPOSSIBLE IN DEL/NJ WITH SWI -1, TT 48, KI 32 AND 60-70KT
WIND AT 850 MB ON THE ECMWF IN THE 3AM-6 AM (08Z-11Z) TIME FRAME.
12Z NAM HAS SIMILAR ELEVATED INSTABILITY AT 09Z MONDAY. 12Z GFS
LEAST ROBUST OF THE THREE 12Z MODELS MENTIONED. GRIDS HAVE THE CHC
TSTM IN SNJ AND THE DELMARVA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY...WINDY AND WARM (AFTER EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS RACE NE AT 50 KTS (NEAR 60 MPH). RECORD WARMTH
EXPECTED AND SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH. BLENDED TRANSPORT
WIND SUPPORTS 40 MPH GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY 45.

MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MAYBE A LOW TOPPED SPRINKLE OR
SHOWER ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY (MOSTLY CIRRUS)...BREEZY AND
STILL WITH TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY. THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS
PRETTY STABLE THESE PAST TWO CYCLES AND HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
FURTHEST WEST WITH THIS OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. THE 12Z GFS HAS MOVED WEST WITH THE TRACK. NO LOCK ON THE
TRACK SINCE SHORT WAVE INTERACTIONS SHOW VARIABILITY IN THE
ENSEMBLES. STILL...IT LOOKS AS IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMP IS GOING
TO GOVERN WHERE ITS MOSTLY SNOW. DAYTIME TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

ADVISE ALL WITH TRAVEL PLANS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN OUR
FORECAST AREA TO CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS. THIS COULD BECOME
A SNOW STORM FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH PLOWABLE SNOW
AND NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES....ESPECIALLY THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

THAT WOULD MEAN A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DUE TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL AND ONE
OF THE BUSIEST AIR TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR.

IF THIS FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR SUNDAY...BRIEFING PACKAGES WOULD
BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 330 PM.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AS THE PRIME TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...WPC GUIDANCE WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS AS A
LOW LVL WNW FLOW APPEARS TO PREVAIL WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
HEADING ESEWD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.



TONIGHT...VFR, WITH AREAS OF CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 5,000 FEET.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

SUNDAY...VFR, WITH CEILINGS AT TIMES ABOVE 5,000 FEET. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5-10 KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTHEAST LATE.

SUNDAY NIGHT... VFR THROUGH THE EVENING WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND
GRADUALLY LOWERING CEILINGS. LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AFTER 03Z FROM
PHL SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
04Z MON THROUGH 12Z MON...VERY POOR FLYING CONDS WITH MVFR
EXPECTED AND IFR PSBL IF NOT PROBABLE IN PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS.
RAIN COULD BE HVY AT TIMES WITH A POSSIBLE TSTM AFTER 06Z/24
SUNDAY NIGHT. E TO SE WIND COULD GUST IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE
TOWARD 09Z MONDAY. LLWS POTENTIAL AT KACY NEAR 09Z MONDAY. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FT
(AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS RAPIDLY DEPART NEWD BY 14Z). SW WIND
GUST 30-38 KT. CFP/SHIFT MON EVE WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE...ESPECIALLY E PA. MDT CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A COASTAL
LOW. COULD BE VFR IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH EAST OR MVFR/IFR IN RAIN/SNOW
AND WIND IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH W. AS IT STANDS WITH TODAYS MODEL AND
NCEP COLLABORATED GUIDANCE...PLAN ON PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO SOME
SNOW AND A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE LOW TO MODERATE.

THURSDAY...VFR CIGS WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDS IN
SCT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH SUNDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN SOME THROUGH
MUCH OF TONIGHT. A LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO TRACK MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH, HOWEVER THE 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS TONIGHT.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MIXING OCCURS, ALTHOUGH SURFACE
GUSTS MAY BE MARGINAL. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALSO BUILD THE
SEAS, HOWEVER THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS MAY SETUP TO OUR
NORTHEAST. SINCE THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL, WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 11Z SUNDAY FOR ALL BUT THE DELAWARE
BAY. THE CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH
STRONGEST INFLOW SE WINDS OF POTENTIAL 35-40 KT GUSTS NEAR DAWN
MONDAY. WINDS SHIFT SW IN THE WARM SECTOR AND MAY GUST 35 KT ALONG
THE COAST WHERE NEAR RECORD WARMTH PREVAILS.

BLENDED 12Z/22 NAM/GFS TRANSPORT WIND SUPPORTS GALE GUSTS 06Z MONDAY-
02Z TUESDAY. FOR NOW THE GALE WATCH ENDS AT 22Z MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY....A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SCA CONDS AS SEAS
AND WIND EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...PLAN ON SCA CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING AS A COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPS. SMALL POTENTIAL FOR A GALE LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KLWX 230224
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
924 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF CAPE HATTERAS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRES IS OFF CAPE HATTERAS...BUT ENOUGH GRADIENT EXISTS TO
MAINTAIN 10 MPH SLY FLOW. THEREFORE...DESPITE DEWPOINTS IN THE
TEENS...TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT DROPPED MUCH YET THIS EVENING. WITH
CLEAR SKIES THOUGH...ANY AREAS THAT SEE DECOUPLING WILL DROP
QUICKLY. FOR INSTANCE...IT IS ALREADY MID 30S AT KMRB WHERE IT WAS
CALM AT 02Z. MIN TEMPS GENERALLY LOW 30S...THOUGH PATCHY UPR 20S
WILL OCCUR. INVERSION WITH HIGHER TEMPS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
NEARSHORE AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
SUNDAY WL BE THE LAST PD W/O MUCH WX TO TALK ABT. HIGH PRES CONTS
TO DRIFT AWAY. RGN WL BE UNDER SRLY FLOW. HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGS
WARMER THAN TDA - M50S MOST OF THE AREA.

POPS INCREASE FROM FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WARM AIR
ADVECTION TYPICALLY STARTS RAINING SOONER THAN MODELS DEPICT.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND AN ATTENDANT
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL BE PIVOTING NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY...WHILE A WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. A STRONG
LLJ WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WITH A SOLID SHIELD OF
MODERATE RAIN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AFTER 00Z. RAISED POPS
TO 100 ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT THE FAR WESTERN RIDGES...AS
THIS LOOKS LIKE A WELL FORCED SYNOPTIC EVENT WITH SIMILAR TIMING IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE ONLY QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY IS THE COOL
NEAR-SURFACE AIR SCOURED OUT WITH A NIGHTTIME WARM FRONT AND
POSSIBLE IN-SITU CAD. REGARDLESS OF THE TIMING...TEMPERATURES AND
DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB STEADILY THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS. 50 KT OF 0-1 KM SHEAR ALONG THE WARM FRONT...BUT
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR ZERO...ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND A FEW
SREF MEMBERS BRING A LITTLE ELEVATED CAPE EAST OF I-95. LEFT MENTION
OF THUNDER OUT...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR EMBEDDED RUMBLES. LOW LEVEL WINDS ALSO FAVOR A SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE
FLOW...SO THE HIGHEST QPF IS DEPICTED ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. PWATS WILL APPROACH 1.5 INCHES...SO EXPECT SOME SPOTS
COULD EASILY NEAR AN INCH OF RAIN. RIDGE TOPS COULD BE RATHER BREEZY
DUE TO THE LLJ. MAIN SHIELD OF PRECIP WILL PULL NORTHEAST AFTER 09Z
AS MID LEVEL DRYING BEGINS TO WORK IN.

CWA WILL BE WARM SECTORED ON MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND SOME LOWER 70S TO
THE EAST...GETTING CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION). IT
WILL ALSO BE BREEZY WITH SOME GUSTS TOPPING 25 MPH. BIGGEST QUESTION
OF THE DAY IS PRECIP POTENTIAL. THE 12Z NAM IS STILL AN OUTLIER WITH
MORE MOISTURE AND A NARROW CAPE PROFILE...WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING.
THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW MID LEVEL DRYING AND SOME
CAPPING...AND THUS DRY. WILL LEAN THIS WAY...KEEPING VERY LOW POPS.
HOWEVER THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL BECAUSE IF
SHOWERS/STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY WILL HAVE STRONG SHEAR TO TAP INTO.

BY MONDAY EVENING...THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO QUEBEC...WITH THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED...WITH THE NAM AND SREF THE MOST ROBUST WITH SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SMALL POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE 40S...WITH 30S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE THE COLDER
AIR WILL ARRIVE EARLIER.

GUIDANCE STILL DIFFERS SUBSTANTIALLY ON THE AMPLITUDE OF A RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING ONSHORE
OF WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND THE INTERACTION OF TWO SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. 00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS MORE
PRONOUNCED WITH THE RIDGE OUT WEST BECAUSE IT IS WEAKER WITH THE
INCOMING PACIFIC SHORTWAVE...AND AS A RESULT ALLOWS MORE
AMPLIFICATION/PHASING OF TWO SHORTWAVES OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES LEADING TO STRONGER CYCLOGENESIS MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST.
THE LATEST OPERATIONAL 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION AS
WELL...SO HAVE STARTED WITH WPC AS A BASELINE THEN TWEAKED POPS
UPWARD A FEW PERCENT AND NUDGED TEMPERATURES DOWN ABOUT A DEGREE OR
TWO /MORE AMPLIFIED NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND STREAM INTERACTION
BRINGS IN COLDER AIR/.

OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS EACH MODEL CYCLE HAS A FEW MORE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS BRINGING LOW PRESSURE CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT THE OVERALL
PATTERN IS NOT A CLASSIC SETUP FOR HEAVY WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE
METRO AREAS DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE RIDGE OUT WEST BEING
UNDERCUT/WEAKENED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WOULD ACT TO KEEP THE
PATTERN LESS AMPLIFIED AND THE EAST COAST SYSTEM MORE
PROGRESSIVE/TRANSIENT...WITH LESS COLD AIR REACHING THE CWA IN
CONCERT WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST.

BOTTOM LINE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE INCREASED DURING THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD WHICH COINCIDES WITH THE BUSIEST TRAVEL TIME OF THE
YEAR SO IT DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING. WINTRY PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT BUT AT THE MOMENT THIS SETUP DOES NOT APPEAR TO FAVOR A
CLASSIC MID-ATLANTIC SNOWSTORM.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...MORE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOLLOWS LATER IN THE
WEEK...GRADUALLY MODERATING INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD THEN OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS TNGT AND INTO SUN AFTERNOON.

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN (MVFR
POSSIBLE SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON NEAR KCHO). A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...DIMINISHING AND TURNING
WESTERLY MONDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.

W FLOW AOB 10 KT TUE W/ VFR...BECOMING N OR NE TUE
NIGHT-WED...UNCERTAIN IN EXACT MAGNITUDE/DIRECTION DUE TO MODEL
DISAGREEMENT IN PLACEMENT OF LOW PRES ALONG COAST. LOW PRES ALSO MAY
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LWR CIGS/VSBY LATE TUE NIGHT-WED EVE. WINDS
BECOME W AGAIN AROUND 10 KT THU W/ RETURN TO VFR LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY/SWLY FLOW AROUND 15 KT INTO THE OVERNIGHT. STRAY 18 KT GUST
POSSIBLE...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR AN SCA.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...LIKELY CONTINUING INTO MONDAY
NIGHT AS WINDS INCREASE BEHIND A WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL
TURN WINDS TO THE WEST MONDAY EVENING...WITH GUSTS GRADUALLY
WEAKENING.

UNLESS LOW PRES WINDS UP MUCH MORE THAN CURRENTLY PROJECTED BY EVEN
THE STRONGER MODEL SOLUTIONS TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE
WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
IAD TIED A RECORD LOW OF 14 DEGREES THIS MORNING...PREVIOUSLY SET
BACK IN 1964.

8TH CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW 50 AT IAD AND BWI WAS
RECORDED TODAY...SECOND MOST ON RECORD AT IAD IN THE MONTH OF
NOVEMBER...AND THE LONGEST NOVEMBER STRETCH AT BWI SINCE 1944.

STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL USHER IN
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES...AND HIGHS MONDAY COULD APPROACH
RECORD MAXIMUM VALUES. BELOW IS A LIST OF RECORD DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR 11/24.

SITE   RECORD (YEAR)
DCA    74 (1958)
BWI    73 (1979)
IAD    74 (1979)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ530>532-535-538>540.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ533-534-536-537-541>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...JACKSON
PREVIOUS...WOODY!/ADS/DFH






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230209
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
909 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND
MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST GOES WV IMAGERY INDICATES A POTENT TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS
TX...WITH A BROAD RIDGE DOWNSTREAM COVERING THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A ~1030MB HIGH IS CENTERED JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE NC OUTER BANKS. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME
MID LVL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS OUT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE TEXARKANA REGION OVERNIGHT
TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN OFF
QUICKLY INTO THE 30S AS EXPECTED EARLY THIS EVENING WITH LGT
WINDS/CLR SKY AND WITH DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BEGIN TO STABILIZE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BECOMING STEADY OR
EVEN SLOWLY RISE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS CLOUDS
GRADUALLY INCREASE AND LOWER TOWARDS MORNING. NUDGED INHERITED
MINIMA DOWN SLIGHTLY GIVEN LATEST OBS...BUT STILL ANTICIPATING
U20S TO L30S INLAND...MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...THICKEN...AND LOWER FROM THE SW SUN
AS GULF COAST MOISTURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFT NE THROUGH
THE SE CONUS...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT SOME RAIN
SHOULD ARRIVE IN SW PORTIONS LATE IN THE DAY...WITH 60% POPS SW
LATE IN THE DAY...BORDERED BY A 30-50% POP FROM THE NW PIEDMONT
THROUGH NE NC. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW TO LOW 60S
SE.

THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WILL CROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION PRIMARILY FROM SUN EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE (+3 ST DEV PW 03-06Z MON PER
22/15Z SREF) WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DUE TO A STRONG NEARLY 70KT
LLJ. POPS FOR RAIN DURING THE 12HR PERIOD SUN NIGHT HAVE BEEN
RAISED TO 100%. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
COASTAL NE NC. HOWEVER...0-3KM LAPSE RATES SEEM TO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR THROUGHOUT THE 22/12Z SUITE OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...OFFSETTING
A STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELD. GIVEN THIS...THE SPC SLIGHT RISK HAS
BEEN SHUNTED S OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND 6HR PRESSURE FALLS OF -7MB TO -10MB PER 22/12Z GFS
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF
THE COAST. GUSTS FROM THE SSE DIRECTION OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. LOWS SUN NIGHT SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 50S...WITH
READINGS LIKELY TO RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG FORCING AND
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A ~6HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SUN NIGHT...WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS
AVERAGING 1.00-1.25IN.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION BY 12Z MON...WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE FAR WRN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUE. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING...WITH A GUSTY SW WIND
DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S (SEE THE
THE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS). 22/12Z NAM LINGERS MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO 20-30% DUE TO THE APPROACH
OF THE COLD FRONT AND SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE INLAND...WITH CLOUDS LINGERING NEAR THE COAST
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TUE. HIGHS TUE SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER MORNING LOWS FROM THE
MID 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MODELS NOW SHOWING SRN STREAM LO PRES OVR THE ERN GULF TUE
EVENG...WILL TRACK NNE AND JUST OFF THE EAST CST TUE NGT INTO WED
NGT. THUS...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR RAIN TO 40%-60% (HIGHEST IN THE
ERN HALF OF THE REGION) DURING WED. PCPN/MOIST THEN MOVES E OF THE
AREA AND OFF THE CST LATER WED EVENG/WED NGT...WITH POPS DIMINISHING
FM W TO E. A MAINLY DRY FRONT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO
EARLY FRI MORNG. HI PRES WILL THEN BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI
THRU SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S WED...IN THE UPR 40S TO LWR
50S THU...IN THE MID TO UPR 40S FRI...AND RANGE THRU THE 40S SAT.
MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S WED MORNG...IN THE UPR
20S TO MID 30S THU AND FRI MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S
SAT MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONT ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL PERSIST INTO SUN
MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVD OFFSHORE OF VA/NC AND WNDS
AROUND THE HIGH ARE SE-SW OVER THE REGION AND GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 KTS. MEANWHILE...LOTS OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE SE AND GULF STATES
WILL PUSH NORTH INTO THE MID ATL REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
SUN.

A MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL HELP FORM A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE SE US AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVES NE OUT OF THE GOMEX
ON SUN. THIS WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AS A WARM FRONT
SURGES THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS(POSSIBLY
LOWER) DUE TO LOWERED CEILINGS AND REDUCED VIS DUE TO RAIN.
ALSO...WIND GUST TO 35KT MAY BE POSSIBLE MON MORNING AS THE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE OVER NE NC/SE VA.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE HOISTED SCA`S FOR THE ENTIRE WTRS STARTING SUN EVENG...AND
LASTING THRU MON AFTN/EVENG OR MON NGT FOR THE CHES BAY/CURRITUCK
SND AND THE CSTL WTRS. HI PRES SLIDES OUT TO SEA DURING SUN...WITH
LO PRES MOVNG FM THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY NNE THRU THE GRT LKS AND
INTO ERN CANADA SUN EVENG INTO MON NGT. SE OR S WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACRS THE WTRS/REGION LATE SUN INTO MON MORNG IN ADVANCE
OF A COLD FRONT. SE OR S WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO/ARND
30 KNOTS EXPECTED SUN EVENG INTO MON EVENG...WITH WAVES BLDNG TO 3
TO 5 FT IN THE CHES BAY...AND SEAS BLDNG TO 5 TO 8 FEET ON THE
CSTL WTRS. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WTRS MON NGT...WITH CALMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE INTO TUE NGT. STRONG NE OR N WINDS THEN
EXPECTED WED INTO WED NGT...AS LO PRES TRACKS NWRD JUST OFF THE
EAST CST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ633-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...DAP/JEF
MARINE...TMG
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230209
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
909 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND
MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST GOES WV IMAGERY INDICATES A POTENT TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS
TX...WITH A BROAD RIDGE DOWNSTREAM COVERING THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A ~1030MB HIGH IS CENTERED JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE NC OUTER BANKS. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME
MID LVL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS OUT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE TEXARKANA REGION OVERNIGHT
TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN OFF
QUICKLY INTO THE 30S AS EXPECTED EARLY THIS EVENING WITH LGT
WINDS/CLR SKY AND WITH DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BEGIN TO STABILIZE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BECOMING STEADY OR
EVEN SLOWLY RISE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS CLOUDS
GRADUALLY INCREASE AND LOWER TOWARDS MORNING. NUDGED INHERITED
MINIMA DOWN SLIGHTLY GIVEN LATEST OBS...BUT STILL ANTICIPATING
U20S TO L30S INLAND...MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...THICKEN...AND LOWER FROM THE SW SUN
AS GULF COAST MOISTURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFT NE THROUGH
THE SE CONUS...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT SOME RAIN
SHOULD ARRIVE IN SW PORTIONS LATE IN THE DAY...WITH 60% POPS SW
LATE IN THE DAY...BORDERED BY A 30-50% POP FROM THE NW PIEDMONT
THROUGH NE NC. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW TO LOW 60S
SE.

THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WILL CROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION PRIMARILY FROM SUN EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE (+3 ST DEV PW 03-06Z MON PER
22/15Z SREF) WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DUE TO A STRONG NEARLY 70KT
LLJ. POPS FOR RAIN DURING THE 12HR PERIOD SUN NIGHT HAVE BEEN
RAISED TO 100%. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
COASTAL NE NC. HOWEVER...0-3KM LAPSE RATES SEEM TO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR THROUGHOUT THE 22/12Z SUITE OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...OFFSETTING
A STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELD. GIVEN THIS...THE SPC SLIGHT RISK HAS
BEEN SHUNTED S OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND 6HR PRESSURE FALLS OF -7MB TO -10MB PER 22/12Z GFS
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF
THE COAST. GUSTS FROM THE SSE DIRECTION OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. LOWS SUN NIGHT SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 50S...WITH
READINGS LIKELY TO RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG FORCING AND
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A ~6HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SUN NIGHT...WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS
AVERAGING 1.00-1.25IN.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION BY 12Z MON...WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE FAR WRN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUE. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING...WITH A GUSTY SW WIND
DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S (SEE THE
THE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS). 22/12Z NAM LINGERS MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO 20-30% DUE TO THE APPROACH
OF THE COLD FRONT AND SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE INLAND...WITH CLOUDS LINGERING NEAR THE COAST
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TUE. HIGHS TUE SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER MORNING LOWS FROM THE
MID 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MODELS NOW SHOWING SRN STREAM LO PRES OVR THE ERN GULF TUE
EVENG...WILL TRACK NNE AND JUST OFF THE EAST CST TUE NGT INTO WED
NGT. THUS...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR RAIN TO 40%-60% (HIGHEST IN THE
ERN HALF OF THE REGION) DURING WED. PCPN/MOIST THEN MOVES E OF THE
AREA AND OFF THE CST LATER WED EVENG/WED NGT...WITH POPS DIMINISHING
FM W TO E. A MAINLY DRY FRONT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO
EARLY FRI MORNG. HI PRES WILL THEN BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI
THRU SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S WED...IN THE UPR 40S TO LWR
50S THU...IN THE MID TO UPR 40S FRI...AND RANGE THRU THE 40S SAT.
MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S WED MORNG...IN THE UPR
20S TO MID 30S THU AND FRI MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S
SAT MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONT ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL PERSIST INTO SUN
MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVD OFFSHORE OF VA/NC AND WNDS
AROUND THE HIGH ARE SE-SW OVER THE REGION AND GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 KTS. MEANWHILE...LOTS OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE SE AND GULF STATES
WILL PUSH NORTH INTO THE MID ATL REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
SUN.

A MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL HELP FORM A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE SE US AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVES NE OUT OF THE GOMEX
ON SUN. THIS WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AS A WARM FRONT
SURGES THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS(POSSIBLY
LOWER) DUE TO LOWERED CEILINGS AND REDUCED VIS DUE TO RAIN.
ALSO...WIND GUST TO 35KT MAY BE POSSIBLE MON MORNING AS THE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE OVER NE NC/SE VA.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE HOISTED SCA`S FOR THE ENTIRE WTRS STARTING SUN EVENG...AND
LASTING THRU MON AFTN/EVENG OR MON NGT FOR THE CHES BAY/CURRITUCK
SND AND THE CSTL WTRS. HI PRES SLIDES OUT TO SEA DURING SUN...WITH
LO PRES MOVNG FM THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY NNE THRU THE GRT LKS AND
INTO ERN CANADA SUN EVENG INTO MON NGT. SE OR S WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACRS THE WTRS/REGION LATE SUN INTO MON MORNG IN ADVANCE
OF A COLD FRONT. SE OR S WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO/ARND
30 KNOTS EXPECTED SUN EVENG INTO MON EVENG...WITH WAVES BLDNG TO 3
TO 5 FT IN THE CHES BAY...AND SEAS BLDNG TO 5 TO 8 FEET ON THE
CSTL WTRS. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WTRS MON NGT...WITH CALMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE INTO TUE NGT. STRONG NE OR N WINDS THEN
EXPECTED WED INTO WED NGT...AS LO PRES TRACKS NWRD JUST OFF THE
EAST CST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ633-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...DAP/JEF
MARINE...TMG
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230155
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
855 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND
MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY INDICATES A POTENT TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS
TX...WITH A BROAD RIDGE DOWNSTREAM COVERING THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A ~1032MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
THE NC OUTER BANKS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GENERALLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A FEW THIN BANDS OF CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD.
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE
MODERATED INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S WITH A LIGHT SSW WIND ON THE
NW PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST. AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE DOMINATED
BY THE CURRENT COOL/DRY AIRMASS. HENCE TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP
QUICKLY INTO THE 30S THIS EVENING UNDER A CLEAR SKY...EVENTUALLY
REACHING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD
THICKEN LATE...AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. HENCE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME STEADY OR EVEN
SLOWLY RISE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...THICKEN...AND LOWER FROM THE SW SUN
AS GULF COAST MOISTURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFT NE THROUGH
THE SE CONUS...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT SOME RAIN
SHOULD ARRIVE IN SW PORTIONS LATE IN THE DAY...WITH 60% POPS SW
LATE IN THE DAY...BORDERED BY A 30-50% POP FROM THE NW PIEDMONT
THROUGH NE NC. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW TO LOW 60S
SE.

THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WILL CROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION PRIMARILY FROM SUN EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE (+3 ST DEV PW 03-06Z MON PER
22/15Z SREF) WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DUE TO A STRONG NEARLY 70KT
LLJ. POPS FOR RAIN DURING THE 12HR PERIOD SUN NIGHT HAVE BEEN
RAISED TO 100%. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
COASTAL NE NC. HOWEVER...0-3KM LAPSE RATES SEEM TO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR THROUGHOUT THE 22/12Z SUITE OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...OFFSETTING
A STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELD. GIVEN THIS...THE SPC SLIGHT RISK HAS
BEEN SHUNTED S OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND 6HR PRESSURE FALLS OF -7MB TO -10MB PER 22/12Z GFS
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF
THE COAST. GUSTS FROM THE SSE DIRECTION OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. LOWS SUN NIGHT SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 50S...WITH
READINGS LIKELY TO RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG FORCING AND
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A ~6HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SUN NIGHT...WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS
AVERAGING 1.00-1.25IN.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION BY 12Z MON...WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE FAR WRN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUE. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING...WITH A GUSTY SW WIND
DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S (SEE THE
THE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS). 22/12Z NAM LINGERS MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO 20-30% DUE TO THE APPROACH
OF THE COLD FRONT AND SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE INLAND...WITH CLOUDS LINGERING NEAR THE COAST
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TUE. HIGHS TUE SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER MORNING LOWS FROM THE
MID 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MODELS NOW SHOWING SRN STREAM LO PRES OVR THE ERN GULF TUE
EVENG...WILL TRACK NNE AND JUST OFF THE EAST CST TUE NGT INTO WED
NGT. THUS...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR RAIN TO 40%-60% (HIGHEST IN THE
ERN HALF OF THE REGION) DURING WED. PCPN/MOIST THEN MOVES E OF THE
AREA AND OFF THE CST LATER WED EVENG/WED NGT...WITH POPS DIMINISHING
FM W TO E. A MAINLY DRY FRONT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO
EARLY FRI MORNG. HI PRES WILL THEN BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI
THRU SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S WED...IN THE UPR 40S TO LWR
50S THU...IN THE MID TO UPR 40S FRI...AND RANGE THRU THE 40S SAT.
MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S WED MORNG...IN THE UPR
20S TO MID 30S THU AND FRI MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S
SAT MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONT ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL PERSIST INTO SUN
MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVD OFFSHORE OF VA/NC AND WNDS
AROUND THE HIGH ARE SE-SW OVER THE REGION AND GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 KTS. MEANWHILE...LOTS OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE SE AND GULF STATES
WILL PUSH NORTH INTO THE MID ATL REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
SUN.

A MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL HELP FORM A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE SE US AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVES NE OUT OF THE GOMEX
ON SUN. THIS WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AS A WARM FRONT
SURGES THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS(POSSIBLY
LOWER) DUE TO LOWERED CEILINGS AND REDUCED VIS DUE TO RAIN.
ALSO...WIND GUST TO 35KT MAY BE POSSIBLE MON MORNING AS THE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE OVER NE NC/SE VA.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE HOISTED SCA`S FOR THE ENTIRE WTRS STARTING SUN EVENG...AND
LASTING THRU MON AFTN/EVENG OR MON NGT FOR THE CHES BAY/CURRITUCK
SND AND THE CSTL WTRS. HI PRES SLIDES OUT TO SEA DURING SUN...WITH
LO PRES MOVNG FM THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY NNE THRU THE GRT LKS AND
INTO ERN CANADA SUN EVENG INTO MON NGT. SE OR S WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACRS THE WTRS/REGION LATE SUN INTO MON MORNG IN ADVANCE
OF A COLD FRONT. SE OR S WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO/ARND
30 KNOTS EXPECTED SUN EVENG INTO MON EVENG...WITH WAVES BLDNG TO 3
TO 5 FT IN THE CHES BAY...AND SEAS BLDNG TO 5 TO 8 FEET ON THE
CSTL WTRS. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WTRS MON NGT...WITH CALMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE INTO TUE NGT. STRONG NE OR N WINDS THEN
EXPECTED WED INTO WED NGT...AS LO PRES TRACKS NWRD JUST OFF THE
EAST CST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ633-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...DAP/JEF
MARINE...TMG
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230155
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
855 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND
MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY INDICATES A POTENT TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS
TX...WITH A BROAD RIDGE DOWNSTREAM COVERING THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A ~1032MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
THE NC OUTER BANKS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GENERALLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A FEW THIN BANDS OF CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD.
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE
MODERATED INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S WITH A LIGHT SSW WIND ON THE
NW PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST. AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE DOMINATED
BY THE CURRENT COOL/DRY AIRMASS. HENCE TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP
QUICKLY INTO THE 30S THIS EVENING UNDER A CLEAR SKY...EVENTUALLY
REACHING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD
THICKEN LATE...AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. HENCE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME STEADY OR EVEN
SLOWLY RISE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...THICKEN...AND LOWER FROM THE SW SUN
AS GULF COAST MOISTURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFT NE THROUGH
THE SE CONUS...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT SOME RAIN
SHOULD ARRIVE IN SW PORTIONS LATE IN THE DAY...WITH 60% POPS SW
LATE IN THE DAY...BORDERED BY A 30-50% POP FROM THE NW PIEDMONT
THROUGH NE NC. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW TO LOW 60S
SE.

THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WILL CROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION PRIMARILY FROM SUN EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE (+3 ST DEV PW 03-06Z MON PER
22/15Z SREF) WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DUE TO A STRONG NEARLY 70KT
LLJ. POPS FOR RAIN DURING THE 12HR PERIOD SUN NIGHT HAVE BEEN
RAISED TO 100%. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
COASTAL NE NC. HOWEVER...0-3KM LAPSE RATES SEEM TO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR THROUGHOUT THE 22/12Z SUITE OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...OFFSETTING
A STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELD. GIVEN THIS...THE SPC SLIGHT RISK HAS
BEEN SHUNTED S OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND 6HR PRESSURE FALLS OF -7MB TO -10MB PER 22/12Z GFS
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF
THE COAST. GUSTS FROM THE SSE DIRECTION OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. LOWS SUN NIGHT SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 50S...WITH
READINGS LIKELY TO RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG FORCING AND
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A ~6HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SUN NIGHT...WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS
AVERAGING 1.00-1.25IN.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION BY 12Z MON...WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE FAR WRN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUE. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING...WITH A GUSTY SW WIND
DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S (SEE THE
THE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS). 22/12Z NAM LINGERS MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO 20-30% DUE TO THE APPROACH
OF THE COLD FRONT AND SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE INLAND...WITH CLOUDS LINGERING NEAR THE COAST
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TUE. HIGHS TUE SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER MORNING LOWS FROM THE
MID 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MODELS NOW SHOWING SRN STREAM LO PRES OVR THE ERN GULF TUE
EVENG...WILL TRACK NNE AND JUST OFF THE EAST CST TUE NGT INTO WED
NGT. THUS...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR RAIN TO 40%-60% (HIGHEST IN THE
ERN HALF OF THE REGION) DURING WED. PCPN/MOIST THEN MOVES E OF THE
AREA AND OFF THE CST LATER WED EVENG/WED NGT...WITH POPS DIMINISHING
FM W TO E. A MAINLY DRY FRONT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO
EARLY FRI MORNG. HI PRES WILL THEN BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI
THRU SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S WED...IN THE UPR 40S TO LWR
50S THU...IN THE MID TO UPR 40S FRI...AND RANGE THRU THE 40S SAT.
MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S WED MORNG...IN THE UPR
20S TO MID 30S THU AND FRI MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S
SAT MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONT ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL PERSIST INTO SUN
MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVD OFFSHORE OF VA/NC AND WNDS
AROUND THE HIGH ARE SE-SW OVER THE REGION AND GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 KTS. MEANWHILE...LOTS OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE SE AND GULF STATES
WILL PUSH NORTH INTO THE MID ATL REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
SUN.

A MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL HELP FORM A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE SE US AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVES NE OUT OF THE GOMEX
ON SUN. THIS WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AS A WARM FRONT
SURGES THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS(POSSIBLY
LOWER) DUE TO LOWERED CEILINGS AND REDUCED VIS DUE TO RAIN.
ALSO...WIND GUST TO 35KT MAY BE POSSIBLE MON MORNING AS THE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE OVER NE NC/SE VA.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE HOISTED SCA`S FOR THE ENTIRE WTRS STARTING SUN EVENG...AND
LASTING THRU MON AFTN/EVENG OR MON NGT FOR THE CHES BAY/CURRITUCK
SND AND THE CSTL WTRS. HI PRES SLIDES OUT TO SEA DURING SUN...WITH
LO PRES MOVNG FM THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY NNE THRU THE GRT LKS AND
INTO ERN CANADA SUN EVENG INTO MON NGT. SE OR S WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACRS THE WTRS/REGION LATE SUN INTO MON MORNG IN ADVANCE
OF A COLD FRONT. SE OR S WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO/ARND
30 KNOTS EXPECTED SUN EVENG INTO MON EVENG...WITH WAVES BLDNG TO 3
TO 5 FT IN THE CHES BAY...AND SEAS BLDNG TO 5 TO 8 FEET ON THE
CSTL WTRS. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WTRS MON NGT...WITH CALMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE INTO TUE NGT. STRONG NE OR N WINDS THEN
EXPECTED WED INTO WED NGT...AS LO PRES TRACKS NWRD JUST OFF THE
EAST CST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ633-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...DAP/JEF
MARINE...TMG
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 222355 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
655 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED POPS/SKY FOR CURRENT TRENDS. MAINLY SCATTERED SHRA
REMAINING CURRENTLY. EXPECT COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS
EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE ACROSS THE NW LATER TONIGHT WITH
A WEAK SHORTWAVE. ANOTHER BRIEF DRY INTERLUDE SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE RAINFALL RAMPS UP SIGNIFICANTLY BY SUNDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES UPDATED PER LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROAD UPR TROF WL CONT TO DVLP AND ADVN ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS
THRU THE WKEND. A SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF
AND ADVN ACRS THE OH VLY AND GT LKS RGN SUN NGT. WITH SUFFICIENT
DEEP MOISTURE...LLVL JET AND UPR SPPRT MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL RAIN
CHCS WITH IT/S PASSAGE.

THE MAIN UPR TROF IS EXPD TO SLOWLY ADVN INTO THE GT LKS TO MS VLY
RGN BY ERLY NXT WK. ANOTHER SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS
PROGGED FOR A MON PASSAGE. MSTR IS EXPD TO BE LTD WITH FROPA SO
MAINTAINED CHC POPS WITH THIS FEATURE. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WNDS
ARE EXPD MON AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS ARND A DEEPENING UPR GT
LKS SFC LOW.

COLD ADVCTN IS EXPD MON NGT INTO TUE UNDER THE BROAD UPR TROF.
BNDRY LYR FLOW IS PROGGED TO RMN SW SO NO LK CONNECTION IS EXPD.
ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SNW SHWRS IN THE RIDGES
BUT WITH MOISTURE DEPTH LTD ONLY INCLUDED SLGT CHC POPS. AFT WELL
ABV AVG TEMPS ERLY IN THE PD...EXP READINGS BLO SEASONAL LVLS
AGAIN BY TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
EASTERN STATES SIT UNDER A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH AREA NOW COMPLETELY IN THE WARM SECTOR...EXPECT GENERAL VFR
FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISO...NON-RESTRICTIVE SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE THE NORM
THROUGH SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
NEXT STORM MOVES THROUGH. POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 222355 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
655 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED POPS/SKY FOR CURRENT TRENDS. MAINLY SCATTERED SHRA
REMAINING CURRENTLY. EXPECT COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS
EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE ACROSS THE NW LATER TONIGHT WITH
A WEAK SHORTWAVE. ANOTHER BRIEF DRY INTERLUDE SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE RAINFALL RAMPS UP SIGNIFICANTLY BY SUNDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES UPDATED PER LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROAD UPR TROF WL CONT TO DVLP AND ADVN ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS
THRU THE WKEND. A SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF
AND ADVN ACRS THE OH VLY AND GT LKS RGN SUN NGT. WITH SUFFICIENT
DEEP MOISTURE...LLVL JET AND UPR SPPRT MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL RAIN
CHCS WITH IT/S PASSAGE.

THE MAIN UPR TROF IS EXPD TO SLOWLY ADVN INTO THE GT LKS TO MS VLY
RGN BY ERLY NXT WK. ANOTHER SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS
PROGGED FOR A MON PASSAGE. MSTR IS EXPD TO BE LTD WITH FROPA SO
MAINTAINED CHC POPS WITH THIS FEATURE. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WNDS
ARE EXPD MON AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS ARND A DEEPENING UPR GT
LKS SFC LOW.

COLD ADVCTN IS EXPD MON NGT INTO TUE UNDER THE BROAD UPR TROF.
BNDRY LYR FLOW IS PROGGED TO RMN SW SO NO LK CONNECTION IS EXPD.
ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SNW SHWRS IN THE RIDGES
BUT WITH MOISTURE DEPTH LTD ONLY INCLUDED SLGT CHC POPS. AFT WELL
ABV AVG TEMPS ERLY IN THE PD...EXP READINGS BLO SEASONAL LVLS
AGAIN BY TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
EASTERN STATES SIT UNDER A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH AREA NOW COMPLETELY IN THE WARM SECTOR...EXPECT GENERAL VFR
FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISO...NON-RESTRICTIVE SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE THE NORM
THROUGH SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
NEXT STORM MOVES THROUGH. POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 222350
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
650 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EDGING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...DRAWING A STRONG WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH
OUR AREA. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR JAMES BAY MONDAY EVENING AS IT SENDS
A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD STATES. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATER TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINA`S WEDNESDAY AND MOVES EAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON THANKSGIVING.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HEADS SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE FLOW BACKS SOME MORE IN COMBINATION WITH A
SURFACE HIGH SLIDING TO OUR SOUTHEAST, A LARGE AREA OF WAA WILL
OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS IS MORE NOTED TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST
CLOSER TO THE CORE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE WARMING CHIPS AWAY AT THE REMAINING COOLER
AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE. THIS PROCESS IS LEADING TO AN AREA OF
CLOUDINESS THAT CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

THE WAA AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE HAS
BEEN GENERATING AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM CENTRAL NEW
YORK/PENNSYLVANIA ON NORTHEASTWARD. SOME OF THIS WILL MOVE ACROSS
OUR REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES, HOWEVER
WITH THE MAIN LOW- LEVEL JET PASSING TO OUR NORTH ALONG WITH THE
BETTER LIFT THERE, ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AND
SPOTTY. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER DRY LAYER
IN THE LOWEST LEVELS AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK FORCING RESULTS
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THERE IS LITTLE MODEL SUPPORT TO BRING
IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION, AND THE WPC QPF IS PRETTY MUCH DRY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EVENING IN THE COLDEST SPOTS LOOK JUST
WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION. THE SPS THAT WAS
IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

DID RAISE LOW TEMPERATURES SOME WITH THE LATEST 6;30 PM UPDATE AS
CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
DOWN IN THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER OUTSIDE THE CLOUD SHIELD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AMPLIFYING DURING SUNDAY
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME RIDGING TO DEVELOP
DOWNSTREAM, RESULTING IN THE SURFACE HIGH TO BECOME ANCHORED
OFFSHORE. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WITH WAA CONTINUING
AND EVEN STRENGTHENING SOME DURING THE DAY, A WARMER DAY IS
ANTICIPATED.

THE LOCATION OF A LOW-LEVEL JET IN COMBINATION OF SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD KEEP ANY MORNING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH. MEANWHILE, A WARM FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES IN
THE VICINITY OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE THERE
WILL BE SOME CLOUDS AROUND, SOME THINNING SHOULD OCCUR FOR A TIME
BEFORE AN INCREASE DEVELOPS AGAIN TOWARD EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT
ANY ORGANIZED LIFT REMAINS AWAY FROM OUR AREA, THEREFORE WE WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, A GFS/NAM MOS BLEND WAS GENERALLY USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
**RECORD WARMTH MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM/EVENT
 FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY**

ANOTHER HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH NEAR 100W LONGITUDE TO START SUNDAY
NIGHT LIFTS NEWD INTO QUEBEC BY TUESDAY WITH A NEW TROUGH EVOLVING
OVER THE EASTERN USA WEDNESDAY BUT FULL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE SHORT WAVE INTERACTIONS - AMPLITUDE AND TRANSLATION SPEEDS. SO
WHILE A MID ATLANTIC COASTAL WINTER EVENT IS FORECAST, IT IS NOT
YET A LOCK DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UNCERTAINTY. A GENERAL
CYCLONIC FLOW AT MID LEVELS CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES HAVE BEEN BELOW NORMAL SINCE THE
13TH (9 CONSECUTIVE DAYS).  MODELS AGREE ON TEMPS ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY...MAYBE 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY...
BELOW NORMAL WED-FRI AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/22 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT. THEN THE 12Z/22 GFS
MOS IS APPLIED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER (WEDNESDAY
ONWARD) THE 1522Z/22 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES IS BLENDED
50 50 WITH THE 12Z/22 GFS MEXMOS. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED
AGAINST THE 12Z/22 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH
ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/22 SREF 3HRLY POPS
FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/22 GEFS 6HR
POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY NIGHT...WAA WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLY HEAVY FOR A TIME. AN ISOLATED SVR TSTM IS
NOT IMPOSSIBLE IN DEL/NJ WITH SWI -1, TT 48, KI 32 AND 60-70KT
WIND AT 850 MB ON THE ECMWF IN THE 3AM-6 AM (08Z-11Z) TIME FRAME.
12Z NAM HAS SIMILAR ELEVATED INSTABILITY AT 09Z MONDAY. 12Z GFS
LEAST ROBUST OF THE THREE 12Z MODELS MENTIONED. GRIDS HAVE THE CHC
TSTM IN SNJ AND THE DELMARVA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY...WINDY AND WARM (AFTER EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS RACE NE AT 50 KTS (NEAR 60 MPH). RECORD WARMTH
EXPECTED AND SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH. BLENDED TRANSPORT
WIND SUPPORTS 40 MPH GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY 45.

MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MAYBE A LOW TOPPED SPRINKLE OR
SHOWER ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY (MOSTLY CIRRUS)...BREEZY AND
STILL WITH TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY. THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS
PRETTY STABLE THESE PAST TWO CYCLES AND HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
FURTHEST WEST WITH THIS OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. THE 12Z GFS HAS MOVED WEST WITH THE TRACK. NO LOCK ON THE
TRACK SINCE SHORT WAVE INTERACTIONS SHOW VARIABILITY IN THE
ENSEMBLES. STILL...IT LOOKS AS IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMP IS GOING
TO GOVERN WHERE ITS MOSTLY SNOW. DAYTIME TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

ADVISE ALL WITH TRAVEL PLANS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN OUR
FORECAST AREA TO CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS. THIS COULD BECOME
A SNOW STORM FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH PLOWABLE SNOW
AND NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES....ESPECIALLY THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

THAT WOULD MEAN A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DUE TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL AND ONE
OF THE BUSIEST AIR TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR.

IF THIS FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR SUNDAY...BRIEFING PACKAGES WOULD
BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 330 PM.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AS THE PRIME TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...WPC GUIDANCE WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS AS A
LOW LVL WNW FLOW APPEARS TO PREVAIL WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
HEADING ESEWD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 5,000 FEET FOR
MOST TERMINALS. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL BE AROUND MAINLY FROM
NEAR THE KPHL METRO ON NORTH AND WESTWARD. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SOME LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR, WITH AREAS OF CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 5,000 FEET.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

SUNDAY...VFR, WITH CEILINGS AT TIMES ABOVE 5,000 FEET. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5-8 KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTHEAST LATE.

OUTLOOK...
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 12Z MON...VERY POOR FLYING CONDS WITH
MVFR EXPECTED AND IFR PSBL IF NOT PROBABLE IN PERIODS OF SHOWERY
RAINS. RAIN COULD BE HVY AT TIMES WITH A POSSIBLE TSTM AFTER 06Z/24
SUNDAY NIGHT. E TO SE WIND COULD GUST IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE
TOWARD 09Z MONDAY. LLWS POTENTIAL AT KACY NEAR 09Z MONDAY. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FT
(AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS RAPIDLY DEPART NEWD BY 14Z). SW WIND
GUST 30-38 KT. CFP/SHIFT MON EVE WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE...ESPECIALLY E PA. MDT CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A COASTAL
LOW. COULD BE VFR IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH EAST OR MVFR/IFR IN RAIN/SNOW
AND WIND IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH W. AS IT STANDS WITH TODAYS MODEL AND
NCEP COLLABORATED GUIDANCE...PLAN ON PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO SOME
SNOW AND A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE LOW TO MODERATE.

THURSDAY...VFR CIGS WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDS IN
SCT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH SUNDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN SOME THROUGH
MUCH OF TONIGHT. A LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO TRACK MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH, HOWEVER THE 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS TONIGHT.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MIXING OCCURS, ALTHOUGH SURFACE
GUSTS MAY BE MARGINAL. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALSO BUILD THE
SEAS, HOWEVER THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS MAY SETUP TO OUR
NORTHEAST. SINCE THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL, WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 11Z SUNDAY FOR ALL BUT THE DELAWARE
BAY. THE CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH
STRONGEST INFLOW SE WINDS OF POTENTIAL 35-40 KT GUSTS NEAR DAWN
MONDAY. WINDS SHIFT SW IN THE WARM SECTOR AND MAY GUST 35 KT ALONG
THE COAST WHERE NEAR RECORD WARMTH PREVAILS.

BLENDED 12Z/22 NAM/GFS TRANSPORT WIND SUPPORTS GALE GUSTS 06Z MONDAY-
02Z TUESDAY. FOR NOW THE GALE WATCH ENDS AT 22Z MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY....A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SCA CONDS AS SEAS
AND WIND EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...PLAN ON SCA CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING AS A COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPS. SMALL POTENTIAL FOR A GALE LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 222350
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
650 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EDGING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...DRAWING A STRONG WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH
OUR AREA. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR JAMES BAY MONDAY EVENING AS IT SENDS
A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD STATES. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATER TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINA`S WEDNESDAY AND MOVES EAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON THANKSGIVING.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HEADS SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE FLOW BACKS SOME MORE IN COMBINATION WITH A
SURFACE HIGH SLIDING TO OUR SOUTHEAST, A LARGE AREA OF WAA WILL
OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS IS MORE NOTED TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST
CLOSER TO THE CORE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE WARMING CHIPS AWAY AT THE REMAINING COOLER
AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE. THIS PROCESS IS LEADING TO AN AREA OF
CLOUDINESS THAT CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

THE WAA AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE HAS
BEEN GENERATING AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM CENTRAL NEW
YORK/PENNSYLVANIA ON NORTHEASTWARD. SOME OF THIS WILL MOVE ACROSS
OUR REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES, HOWEVER
WITH THE MAIN LOW- LEVEL JET PASSING TO OUR NORTH ALONG WITH THE
BETTER LIFT THERE, ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AND
SPOTTY. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER DRY LAYER
IN THE LOWEST LEVELS AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK FORCING RESULTS
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THERE IS LITTLE MODEL SUPPORT TO BRING
IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION, AND THE WPC QPF IS PRETTY MUCH DRY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EVENING IN THE COLDEST SPOTS LOOK JUST
WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION. THE SPS THAT WAS
IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

DID RAISE LOW TEMPERATURES SOME WITH THE LATEST 6;30 PM UPDATE AS
CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
DOWN IN THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER OUTSIDE THE CLOUD SHIELD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AMPLIFYING DURING SUNDAY
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME RIDGING TO DEVELOP
DOWNSTREAM, RESULTING IN THE SURFACE HIGH TO BECOME ANCHORED
OFFSHORE. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WITH WAA CONTINUING
AND EVEN STRENGTHENING SOME DURING THE DAY, A WARMER DAY IS
ANTICIPATED.

THE LOCATION OF A LOW-LEVEL JET IN COMBINATION OF SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD KEEP ANY MORNING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH. MEANWHILE, A WARM FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES IN
THE VICINITY OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE THERE
WILL BE SOME CLOUDS AROUND, SOME THINNING SHOULD OCCUR FOR A TIME
BEFORE AN INCREASE DEVELOPS AGAIN TOWARD EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT
ANY ORGANIZED LIFT REMAINS AWAY FROM OUR AREA, THEREFORE WE WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, A GFS/NAM MOS BLEND WAS GENERALLY USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
**RECORD WARMTH MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM/EVENT
 FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY**

ANOTHER HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH NEAR 100W LONGITUDE TO START SUNDAY
NIGHT LIFTS NEWD INTO QUEBEC BY TUESDAY WITH A NEW TROUGH EVOLVING
OVER THE EASTERN USA WEDNESDAY BUT FULL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE SHORT WAVE INTERACTIONS - AMPLITUDE AND TRANSLATION SPEEDS. SO
WHILE A MID ATLANTIC COASTAL WINTER EVENT IS FORECAST, IT IS NOT
YET A LOCK DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UNCERTAINTY. A GENERAL
CYCLONIC FLOW AT MID LEVELS CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES HAVE BEEN BELOW NORMAL SINCE THE
13TH (9 CONSECUTIVE DAYS).  MODELS AGREE ON TEMPS ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY...MAYBE 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY...
BELOW NORMAL WED-FRI AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/22 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT. THEN THE 12Z/22 GFS
MOS IS APPLIED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER (WEDNESDAY
ONWARD) THE 1522Z/22 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES IS BLENDED
50 50 WITH THE 12Z/22 GFS MEXMOS. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED
AGAINST THE 12Z/22 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH
ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/22 SREF 3HRLY POPS
FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/22 GEFS 6HR
POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY NIGHT...WAA WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLY HEAVY FOR A TIME. AN ISOLATED SVR TSTM IS
NOT IMPOSSIBLE IN DEL/NJ WITH SWI -1, TT 48, KI 32 AND 60-70KT
WIND AT 850 MB ON THE ECMWF IN THE 3AM-6 AM (08Z-11Z) TIME FRAME.
12Z NAM HAS SIMILAR ELEVATED INSTABILITY AT 09Z MONDAY. 12Z GFS
LEAST ROBUST OF THE THREE 12Z MODELS MENTIONED. GRIDS HAVE THE CHC
TSTM IN SNJ AND THE DELMARVA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY...WINDY AND WARM (AFTER EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS RACE NE AT 50 KTS (NEAR 60 MPH). RECORD WARMTH
EXPECTED AND SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH. BLENDED TRANSPORT
WIND SUPPORTS 40 MPH GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY 45.

MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MAYBE A LOW TOPPED SPRINKLE OR
SHOWER ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY (MOSTLY CIRRUS)...BREEZY AND
STILL WITH TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY. THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS
PRETTY STABLE THESE PAST TWO CYCLES AND HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
FURTHEST WEST WITH THIS OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. THE 12Z GFS HAS MOVED WEST WITH THE TRACK. NO LOCK ON THE
TRACK SINCE SHORT WAVE INTERACTIONS SHOW VARIABILITY IN THE
ENSEMBLES. STILL...IT LOOKS AS IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMP IS GOING
TO GOVERN WHERE ITS MOSTLY SNOW. DAYTIME TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

ADVISE ALL WITH TRAVEL PLANS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN OUR
FORECAST AREA TO CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS. THIS COULD BECOME
A SNOW STORM FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH PLOWABLE SNOW
AND NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES....ESPECIALLY THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

THAT WOULD MEAN A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DUE TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL AND ONE
OF THE BUSIEST AIR TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR.

IF THIS FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR SUNDAY...BRIEFING PACKAGES WOULD
BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 330 PM.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AS THE PRIME TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...WPC GUIDANCE WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS AS A
LOW LVL WNW FLOW APPEARS TO PREVAIL WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
HEADING ESEWD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 5,000 FEET FOR
MOST TERMINALS. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL BE AROUND MAINLY FROM
NEAR THE KPHL METRO ON NORTH AND WESTWARD. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SOME LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR, WITH AREAS OF CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 5,000 FEET.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

SUNDAY...VFR, WITH CEILINGS AT TIMES ABOVE 5,000 FEET. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5-8 KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTHEAST LATE.

OUTLOOK...
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 12Z MON...VERY POOR FLYING CONDS WITH
MVFR EXPECTED AND IFR PSBL IF NOT PROBABLE IN PERIODS OF SHOWERY
RAINS. RAIN COULD BE HVY AT TIMES WITH A POSSIBLE TSTM AFTER 06Z/24
SUNDAY NIGHT. E TO SE WIND COULD GUST IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE
TOWARD 09Z MONDAY. LLWS POTENTIAL AT KACY NEAR 09Z MONDAY. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FT
(AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS RAPIDLY DEPART NEWD BY 14Z). SW WIND
GUST 30-38 KT. CFP/SHIFT MON EVE WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE...ESPECIALLY E PA. MDT CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A COASTAL
LOW. COULD BE VFR IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH EAST OR MVFR/IFR IN RAIN/SNOW
AND WIND IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH W. AS IT STANDS WITH TODAYS MODEL AND
NCEP COLLABORATED GUIDANCE...PLAN ON PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO SOME
SNOW AND A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE LOW TO MODERATE.

THURSDAY...VFR CIGS WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDS IN
SCT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH SUNDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN SOME THROUGH
MUCH OF TONIGHT. A LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO TRACK MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH, HOWEVER THE 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS TONIGHT.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MIXING OCCURS, ALTHOUGH SURFACE
GUSTS MAY BE MARGINAL. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALSO BUILD THE
SEAS, HOWEVER THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS MAY SETUP TO OUR
NORTHEAST. SINCE THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL, WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 11Z SUNDAY FOR ALL BUT THE DELAWARE
BAY. THE CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH
STRONGEST INFLOW SE WINDS OF POTENTIAL 35-40 KT GUSTS NEAR DAWN
MONDAY. WINDS SHIFT SW IN THE WARM SECTOR AND MAY GUST 35 KT ALONG
THE COAST WHERE NEAR RECORD WARMTH PREVAILS.

BLENDED 12Z/22 NAM/GFS TRANSPORT WIND SUPPORTS GALE GUSTS 06Z MONDAY-
02Z TUESDAY. FOR NOW THE GALE WATCH ENDS AT 22Z MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY....A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SCA CONDS AS SEAS
AND WIND EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...PLAN ON SCA CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING AS A COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPS. SMALL POTENTIAL FOR A GALE LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 222242
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
542 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED POPS/SKY FOR CURRENT TRENDS. MAINLY SCATTERED SHRA
REMAINING CURRENTLY. EXPECT COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS
EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE ACROSS THE NW LATER TONIGHT WITH
A WEAK SHORTWAVE. ANOTHER BRIEF DRY INTERLUDE SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE RAINFALL RAMPS UP SIGNIFICANTLY BY SUNDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES UPDATED PER LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROAD UPR TROF WL CONT TO DVLP AND ADVN ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS
THRU THE WKEND. A SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF
AND ADVN ACRS THE OH VLY AND GT LKS RGN SUN NGT. WITH SUFFICIENT
DEEP MOISTURE...LLVL JET AND UPR SPPRT MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL RAIN
CHCS WITH IT/S PASSAGE.

THE MAIN UPR TROF IS EXPD TO SLOWLY ADVN INTO THE GT LKS TO MS VLY
RGN BY ERLY NXT WK. ANOTHER SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS
PROGGED FOR A MON PASSAGE. MSTR IS EXPD TO BE LTD WITH FROPA SO
MAINTAINED CHC POPS WITH THIS FEATURE. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WNDS
ARE EXPD MON AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS ARND A DEEPENING UPR GT
LKS SFC LOW.

COLD ADVCTN IS EXPD MON NGT INTO TUE UNDER THE BROAD UPR TROF.
BNDRY LYR FLOW IS PROGGED TO RMN SW SO NO LK CONNECTION IS EXPD.
ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SNW SHWRS IN THE RIDGES
BUT WITH MOISTURE DEPTH LTD ONLY INCLUDED SLGT CHC POPS. AFT WELL
ABV AVG TEMPS ERLY IN THE PD...EXP READINGS BLO SEASONAL LVLS
AGAIN BY TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
EASTERN STATES SIT UNDER A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR AT KDUJ WILL IMPROVE AFTER 19Z AS SHORTWAVE EXITS AND RAIN
DIMINISHES. ELSEWHERE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS MAINLY UNDER 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
NEXT STORM MOVES THROUGH. POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 222242
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
542 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED POPS/SKY FOR CURRENT TRENDS. MAINLY SCATTERED SHRA
REMAINING CURRENTLY. EXPECT COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS
EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE ACROSS THE NW LATER TONIGHT WITH
A WEAK SHORTWAVE. ANOTHER BRIEF DRY INTERLUDE SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE RAINFALL RAMPS UP SIGNIFICANTLY BY SUNDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES UPDATED PER LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROAD UPR TROF WL CONT TO DVLP AND ADVN ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS
THRU THE WKEND. A SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF
AND ADVN ACRS THE OH VLY AND GT LKS RGN SUN NGT. WITH SUFFICIENT
DEEP MOISTURE...LLVL JET AND UPR SPPRT MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL RAIN
CHCS WITH IT/S PASSAGE.

THE MAIN UPR TROF IS EXPD TO SLOWLY ADVN INTO THE GT LKS TO MS VLY
RGN BY ERLY NXT WK. ANOTHER SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS
PROGGED FOR A MON PASSAGE. MSTR IS EXPD TO BE LTD WITH FROPA SO
MAINTAINED CHC POPS WITH THIS FEATURE. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WNDS
ARE EXPD MON AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS ARND A DEEPENING UPR GT
LKS SFC LOW.

COLD ADVCTN IS EXPD MON NGT INTO TUE UNDER THE BROAD UPR TROF.
BNDRY LYR FLOW IS PROGGED TO RMN SW SO NO LK CONNECTION IS EXPD.
ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SNW SHWRS IN THE RIDGES
BUT WITH MOISTURE DEPTH LTD ONLY INCLUDED SLGT CHC POPS. AFT WELL
ABV AVG TEMPS ERLY IN THE PD...EXP READINGS BLO SEASONAL LVLS
AGAIN BY TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
EASTERN STATES SIT UNDER A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR AT KDUJ WILL IMPROVE AFTER 19Z AS SHORTWAVE EXITS AND RAIN
DIMINISHES. ELSEWHERE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS MAINLY UNDER 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
NEXT STORM MOVES THROUGH. POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 222157
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
457 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND
MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY INDICATES A POTENT TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS
TX...WITH A BROAD RIDGE DOWNSTREAM COVERING THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A ~1032MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
THE NC OUTER BANKS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GENERALLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A FEW THIN BANDS OF CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD.
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE
MODERATED INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S WITH A LIGHT SSW WIND ON THE
NW PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST. AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE DOMINATED
BY THE CURRENT COOL/DRY AIRMASS. HENCE TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP
QUICKLY INTO THE 30S THIS EVENING UNDER A CLEAR SKY...EVENTUALLY
REACHING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD
THICKEN LATE...AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. HENCE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME STEADY OR EVEN
SLOWLY RISE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...THICKEN...AND LOWER FROM THE SW SUN
AS GULF COAST MOISTURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFT NE THROUGH
THE SE CONUS...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT SOME RAIN
SHOULD ARRIVE IN SW PORTIONS LATE IN THE DAY...WITH 60% POPS SW
LATE IN THE DAY...BORDERED BY A 30-50% POP FROM THE NW PIEDMONT
THROUGH NE NC. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW TO LOW 60S
SE.

THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WILL CROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION PRIMARILY FROM SUN EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE (+3 ST DEV PW 03-06Z MON PER
22/15Z SREF) WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DUE TO A STRONG NEARLY 70KT
LLJ. POPS FOR RAIN DURING THE 12HR PERIOD SUN NIGHT HAVE BEEN
RAISED TO 100%. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
COASTAL NE NC. HOWEVER...0-3KM LAPSE RATES SEEM TO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR THROUGHOUT THE 22/12Z SUITE OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...OFFSETTING
A STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELD. GIVEN THIS...THE SPC SLIGHT RISK HAS
BEEN SHUNTED S OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND 6HR PRESSURE FALLS OF -7MB TO -10MB PER 22/12Z GFS
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF
THE COAST. GUSTS FROM THE SSE DIRECTION OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. LOWS SUN NIGHT SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 50S...WITH
READINGS LIKELY TO RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG FORCING AND
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A ~6HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SUN NIGHT...WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS
AVERAGING 1.00-1.25IN.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION BY 12Z MON...WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE FAR WRN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUE. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING...WITH A GUSTY SW WIND
DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S (SEE THE
THE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS). 22/12Z NAM LINGERS MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO 20-30% DUE TO THE APPROACH
OF THE COLD FRONT AND SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE INLAND...WITH CLOUDS LINGERING NEAR THE COAST
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TUE. HIGHS TUE SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER MORNING LOWS FROM THE
MID 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MODELS NOW SHOWING SRN STREAM LO PRES OVR THE ERN GULF TUE
EVENG...WILL TRACK NNE AND JUST OFF THE EAST CST TUE NGT INTO WED
NGT. THUS...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR RAIN TO 40%-60% (HIGHEST IN THE
ERN HALF OF THE REGION) DURING WED. PCPN/MOIST THEN MOVES E OF THE
AREA AND OFF THE CST LATER WED EVENG/WED NGT...WITH POPS DIMINISHING
FM W TO E. A MAINLY DRY FRONT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO
EARLY FRI MORNG. HI PRES WILL THEN BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI
THRU SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S WED...IN THE UPR 40S TO LWR
50S THU...IN THE MID TO UPR 40S FRI...AND RANGE THRU THE 40S SAT.
MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S WED MORNG...IN THE UPR
20S TO MID 30S THU AND FRI MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S
SAT MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE VA/NC BOARDER WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST DURING THE EVENING. THIS WILL CONTINUE A SOUTHERLY WIND
DIRECTION WHILE INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.

A MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL HELP FORM A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE SE US AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVES NE OUT OF THE GOMEX
ON SUN. THIS WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AS A WARM FRONT
SURGES THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS(POSSIBLY
LOWER) DUE TO LOWERED CEILINGS AND REDUCED VIS DUE TO RAIN.
ALSO...WIND GUST TO 35KT MAY BE POSSIBLE MON MORNING AS THE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE OVER NE NC/SE VA.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE HOISTED SCA`S FOR THE ENTIRE WTRS STARTING SUN EVENG...AND
LASTING THRU MON AFTN/EVENG OR MON NGT FOR THE CHES BAY/CURRITUCK
SND AND THE CSTL WTRS. HI PRES SLIDES OUT TO SEA DURING SUN...WITH
LO PRES MOVNG FM THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY NNE THRU THE GRT LKS AND
INTO ERN CANADA SUN EVENG INTO MON NGT. SE OR S WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACRS THE WTRS/REGION LATE SUN INTO MON MORNG IN ADVANCE
OF A COLD FRONT. SE OR S WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO/ARND
30 KNOTS EXPECTED SUN EVENG INTO MON EVENG...WITH WAVES BLDNG TO 3
TO 5 FT IN THE CHES BAY...AND SEAS BLDNG TO 5 TO 8 FEET ON THE
CSTL WTRS. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WTRS MON NGT...WITH CALMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE INTO TUE NGT. STRONG NE OR N WINDS THEN
EXPECTED WED INTO WED NGT...AS LO PRES TRACKS NWRD JUST OFF THE
EAST CST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ633-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...TMG
CLIMATE...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 222157
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
457 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND
MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY INDICATES A POTENT TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS
TX...WITH A BROAD RIDGE DOWNSTREAM COVERING THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A ~1032MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
THE NC OUTER BANKS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GENERALLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A FEW THIN BANDS OF CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD.
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE
MODERATED INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S WITH A LIGHT SSW WIND ON THE
NW PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST. AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE DOMINATED
BY THE CURRENT COOL/DRY AIRMASS. HENCE TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP
QUICKLY INTO THE 30S THIS EVENING UNDER A CLEAR SKY...EVENTUALLY
REACHING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD
THICKEN LATE...AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. HENCE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME STEADY OR EVEN
SLOWLY RISE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...THICKEN...AND LOWER FROM THE SW SUN
AS GULF COAST MOISTURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFT NE THROUGH
THE SE CONUS...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT SOME RAIN
SHOULD ARRIVE IN SW PORTIONS LATE IN THE DAY...WITH 60% POPS SW
LATE IN THE DAY...BORDERED BY A 30-50% POP FROM THE NW PIEDMONT
THROUGH NE NC. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW TO LOW 60S
SE.

THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WILL CROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION PRIMARILY FROM SUN EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE (+3 ST DEV PW 03-06Z MON PER
22/15Z SREF) WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DUE TO A STRONG NEARLY 70KT
LLJ. POPS FOR RAIN DURING THE 12HR PERIOD SUN NIGHT HAVE BEEN
RAISED TO 100%. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
COASTAL NE NC. HOWEVER...0-3KM LAPSE RATES SEEM TO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR THROUGHOUT THE 22/12Z SUITE OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...OFFSETTING
A STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELD. GIVEN THIS...THE SPC SLIGHT RISK HAS
BEEN SHUNTED S OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND 6HR PRESSURE FALLS OF -7MB TO -10MB PER 22/12Z GFS
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF
THE COAST. GUSTS FROM THE SSE DIRECTION OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. LOWS SUN NIGHT SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 50S...WITH
READINGS LIKELY TO RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG FORCING AND
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A ~6HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SUN NIGHT...WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS
AVERAGING 1.00-1.25IN.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION BY 12Z MON...WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE FAR WRN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUE. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING...WITH A GUSTY SW WIND
DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S (SEE THE
THE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS). 22/12Z NAM LINGERS MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO 20-30% DUE TO THE APPROACH
OF THE COLD FRONT AND SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE INLAND...WITH CLOUDS LINGERING NEAR THE COAST
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TUE. HIGHS TUE SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER MORNING LOWS FROM THE
MID 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MODELS NOW SHOWING SRN STREAM LO PRES OVR THE ERN GULF TUE
EVENG...WILL TRACK NNE AND JUST OFF THE EAST CST TUE NGT INTO WED
NGT. THUS...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR RAIN TO 40%-60% (HIGHEST IN THE
ERN HALF OF THE REGION) DURING WED. PCPN/MOIST THEN MOVES E OF THE
AREA AND OFF THE CST LATER WED EVENG/WED NGT...WITH POPS DIMINISHING
FM W TO E. A MAINLY DRY FRONT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO
EARLY FRI MORNG. HI PRES WILL THEN BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI
THRU SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S WED...IN THE UPR 40S TO LWR
50S THU...IN THE MID TO UPR 40S FRI...AND RANGE THRU THE 40S SAT.
MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S WED MORNG...IN THE UPR
20S TO MID 30S THU AND FRI MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S
SAT MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE VA/NC BOARDER WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST DURING THE EVENING. THIS WILL CONTINUE A SOUTHERLY WIND
DIRECTION WHILE INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.

A MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL HELP FORM A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE SE US AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVES NE OUT OF THE GOMEX
ON SUN. THIS WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AS A WARM FRONT
SURGES THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS(POSSIBLY
LOWER) DUE TO LOWERED CEILINGS AND REDUCED VIS DUE TO RAIN.
ALSO...WIND GUST TO 35KT MAY BE POSSIBLE MON MORNING AS THE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE OVER NE NC/SE VA.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE HOISTED SCA`S FOR THE ENTIRE WTRS STARTING SUN EVENG...AND
LASTING THRU MON AFTN/EVENG OR MON NGT FOR THE CHES BAY/CURRITUCK
SND AND THE CSTL WTRS. HI PRES SLIDES OUT TO SEA DURING SUN...WITH
LO PRES MOVNG FM THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY NNE THRU THE GRT LKS AND
INTO ERN CANADA SUN EVENG INTO MON NGT. SE OR S WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACRS THE WTRS/REGION LATE SUN INTO MON MORNG IN ADVANCE
OF A COLD FRONT. SE OR S WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO/ARND
30 KNOTS EXPECTED SUN EVENG INTO MON EVENG...WITH WAVES BLDNG TO 3
TO 5 FT IN THE CHES BAY...AND SEAS BLDNG TO 5 TO 8 FEET ON THE
CSTL WTRS. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WTRS MON NGT...WITH CALMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE INTO TUE NGT. STRONG NE OR N WINDS THEN
EXPECTED WED INTO WED NGT...AS LO PRES TRACKS NWRD JUST OFF THE
EAST CST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ633-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...TMG
CLIMATE...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 222157
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
457 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND
MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY INDICATES A POTENT TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS
TX...WITH A BROAD RIDGE DOWNSTREAM COVERING THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A ~1032MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
THE NC OUTER BANKS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GENERALLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A FEW THIN BANDS OF CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD.
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE
MODERATED INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S WITH A LIGHT SSW WIND ON THE
NW PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST. AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE DOMINATED
BY THE CURRENT COOL/DRY AIRMASS. HENCE TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP
QUICKLY INTO THE 30S THIS EVENING UNDER A CLEAR SKY...EVENTUALLY
REACHING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD
THICKEN LATE...AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. HENCE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME STEADY OR EVEN
SLOWLY RISE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...THICKEN...AND LOWER FROM THE SW SUN
AS GULF COAST MOISTURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFT NE THROUGH
THE SE CONUS...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT SOME RAIN
SHOULD ARRIVE IN SW PORTIONS LATE IN THE DAY...WITH 60% POPS SW
LATE IN THE DAY...BORDERED BY A 30-50% POP FROM THE NW PIEDMONT
THROUGH NE NC. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW TO LOW 60S
SE.

THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WILL CROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION PRIMARILY FROM SUN EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE (+3 ST DEV PW 03-06Z MON PER
22/15Z SREF) WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DUE TO A STRONG NEARLY 70KT
LLJ. POPS FOR RAIN DURING THE 12HR PERIOD SUN NIGHT HAVE BEEN
RAISED TO 100%. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
COASTAL NE NC. HOWEVER...0-3KM LAPSE RATES SEEM TO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR THROUGHOUT THE 22/12Z SUITE OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...OFFSETTING
A STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELD. GIVEN THIS...THE SPC SLIGHT RISK HAS
BEEN SHUNTED S OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND 6HR PRESSURE FALLS OF -7MB TO -10MB PER 22/12Z GFS
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF
THE COAST. GUSTS FROM THE SSE DIRECTION OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. LOWS SUN NIGHT SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 50S...WITH
READINGS LIKELY TO RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG FORCING AND
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A ~6HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SUN NIGHT...WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS
AVERAGING 1.00-1.25IN.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION BY 12Z MON...WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE FAR WRN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUE. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING...WITH A GUSTY SW WIND
DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S (SEE THE
THE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS). 22/12Z NAM LINGERS MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO 20-30% DUE TO THE APPROACH
OF THE COLD FRONT AND SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE INLAND...WITH CLOUDS LINGERING NEAR THE COAST
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TUE. HIGHS TUE SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER MORNING LOWS FROM THE
MID 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MODELS NOW SHOWING SRN STREAM LO PRES OVR THE ERN GULF TUE
EVENG...WILL TRACK NNE AND JUST OFF THE EAST CST TUE NGT INTO WED
NGT. THUS...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR RAIN TO 40%-60% (HIGHEST IN THE
ERN HALF OF THE REGION) DURING WED. PCPN/MOIST THEN MOVES E OF THE
AREA AND OFF THE CST LATER WED EVENG/WED NGT...WITH POPS DIMINISHING
FM W TO E. A MAINLY DRY FRONT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO
EARLY FRI MORNG. HI PRES WILL THEN BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI
THRU SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S WED...IN THE UPR 40S TO LWR
50S THU...IN THE MID TO UPR 40S FRI...AND RANGE THRU THE 40S SAT.
MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S WED MORNG...IN THE UPR
20S TO MID 30S THU AND FRI MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S
SAT MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE VA/NC BOARDER WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST DURING THE EVENING. THIS WILL CONTINUE A SOUTHERLY WIND
DIRECTION WHILE INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.

A MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL HELP FORM A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE SE US AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVES NE OUT OF THE GOMEX
ON SUN. THIS WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AS A WARM FRONT
SURGES THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS(POSSIBLY
LOWER) DUE TO LOWERED CEILINGS AND REDUCED VIS DUE TO RAIN.
ALSO...WIND GUST TO 35KT MAY BE POSSIBLE MON MORNING AS THE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE OVER NE NC/SE VA.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE HOISTED SCA`S FOR THE ENTIRE WTRS STARTING SUN EVENG...AND
LASTING THRU MON AFTN/EVENG OR MON NGT FOR THE CHES BAY/CURRITUCK
SND AND THE CSTL WTRS. HI PRES SLIDES OUT TO SEA DURING SUN...WITH
LO PRES MOVNG FM THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY NNE THRU THE GRT LKS AND
INTO ERN CANADA SUN EVENG INTO MON NGT. SE OR S WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACRS THE WTRS/REGION LATE SUN INTO MON MORNG IN ADVANCE
OF A COLD FRONT. SE OR S WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO/ARND
30 KNOTS EXPECTED SUN EVENG INTO MON EVENG...WITH WAVES BLDNG TO 3
TO 5 FT IN THE CHES BAY...AND SEAS BLDNG TO 5 TO 8 FEET ON THE
CSTL WTRS. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WTRS MON NGT...WITH CALMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE INTO TUE NGT. STRONG NE OR N WINDS THEN
EXPECTED WED INTO WED NGT...AS LO PRES TRACKS NWRD JUST OFF THE
EAST CST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ633-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...TMG
CLIMATE...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 222157
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
457 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND
MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY INDICATES A POTENT TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS
TX...WITH A BROAD RIDGE DOWNSTREAM COVERING THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A ~1032MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
THE NC OUTER BANKS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GENERALLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A FEW THIN BANDS OF CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD.
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE
MODERATED INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S WITH A LIGHT SSW WIND ON THE
NW PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST. AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE DOMINATED
BY THE CURRENT COOL/DRY AIRMASS. HENCE TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP
QUICKLY INTO THE 30S THIS EVENING UNDER A CLEAR SKY...EVENTUALLY
REACHING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD
THICKEN LATE...AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. HENCE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME STEADY OR EVEN
SLOWLY RISE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...THICKEN...AND LOWER FROM THE SW SUN
AS GULF COAST MOISTURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFT NE THROUGH
THE SE CONUS...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT SOME RAIN
SHOULD ARRIVE IN SW PORTIONS LATE IN THE DAY...WITH 60% POPS SW
LATE IN THE DAY...BORDERED BY A 30-50% POP FROM THE NW PIEDMONT
THROUGH NE NC. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW TO LOW 60S
SE.

THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WILL CROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION PRIMARILY FROM SUN EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE (+3 ST DEV PW 03-06Z MON PER
22/15Z SREF) WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DUE TO A STRONG NEARLY 70KT
LLJ. POPS FOR RAIN DURING THE 12HR PERIOD SUN NIGHT HAVE BEEN
RAISED TO 100%. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
COASTAL NE NC. HOWEVER...0-3KM LAPSE RATES SEEM TO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR THROUGHOUT THE 22/12Z SUITE OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...OFFSETTING
A STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELD. GIVEN THIS...THE SPC SLIGHT RISK HAS
BEEN SHUNTED S OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND 6HR PRESSURE FALLS OF -7MB TO -10MB PER 22/12Z GFS
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF
THE COAST. GUSTS FROM THE SSE DIRECTION OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. LOWS SUN NIGHT SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 50S...WITH
READINGS LIKELY TO RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG FORCING AND
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A ~6HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SUN NIGHT...WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS
AVERAGING 1.00-1.25IN.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION BY 12Z MON...WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE FAR WRN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUE. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING...WITH A GUSTY SW WIND
DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S (SEE THE
THE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS). 22/12Z NAM LINGERS MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO 20-30% DUE TO THE APPROACH
OF THE COLD FRONT AND SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE INLAND...WITH CLOUDS LINGERING NEAR THE COAST
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TUE. HIGHS TUE SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER MORNING LOWS FROM THE
MID 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MODELS NOW SHOWING SRN STREAM LO PRES OVR THE ERN GULF TUE
EVENG...WILL TRACK NNE AND JUST OFF THE EAST CST TUE NGT INTO WED
NGT. THUS...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR RAIN TO 40%-60% (HIGHEST IN THE
ERN HALF OF THE REGION) DURING WED. PCPN/MOIST THEN MOVES E OF THE
AREA AND OFF THE CST LATER WED EVENG/WED NGT...WITH POPS DIMINISHING
FM W TO E. A MAINLY DRY FRONT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO
EARLY FRI MORNG. HI PRES WILL THEN BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI
THRU SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S WED...IN THE UPR 40S TO LWR
50S THU...IN THE MID TO UPR 40S FRI...AND RANGE THRU THE 40S SAT.
MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S WED MORNG...IN THE UPR
20S TO MID 30S THU AND FRI MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S
SAT MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE VA/NC BOARDER WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST DURING THE EVENING. THIS WILL CONTINUE A SOUTHERLY WIND
DIRECTION WHILE INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.

A MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL HELP FORM A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE SE US AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVES NE OUT OF THE GOMEX
ON SUN. THIS WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AS A WARM FRONT
SURGES THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS(POSSIBLY
LOWER) DUE TO LOWERED CEILINGS AND REDUCED VIS DUE TO RAIN.
ALSO...WIND GUST TO 35KT MAY BE POSSIBLE MON MORNING AS THE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE OVER NE NC/SE VA.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE HOISTED SCA`S FOR THE ENTIRE WTRS STARTING SUN EVENG...AND
LASTING THRU MON AFTN/EVENG OR MON NGT FOR THE CHES BAY/CURRITUCK
SND AND THE CSTL WTRS. HI PRES SLIDES OUT TO SEA DURING SUN...WITH
LO PRES MOVNG FM THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY NNE THRU THE GRT LKS AND
INTO ERN CANADA SUN EVENG INTO MON NGT. SE OR S WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACRS THE WTRS/REGION LATE SUN INTO MON MORNG IN ADVANCE
OF A COLD FRONT. SE OR S WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO/ARND
30 KNOTS EXPECTED SUN EVENG INTO MON EVENG...WITH WAVES BLDNG TO 3
TO 5 FT IN THE CHES BAY...AND SEAS BLDNG TO 5 TO 8 FEET ON THE
CSTL WTRS. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WTRS MON NGT...WITH CALMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE INTO TUE NGT. STRONG NE OR N WINDS THEN
EXPECTED WED INTO WED NGT...AS LO PRES TRACKS NWRD JUST OFF THE
EAST CST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ633-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...TMG
CLIMATE...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 222157
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
457 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND
MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY INDICATES A POTENT TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS
TX...WITH A BROAD RIDGE DOWNSTREAM COVERING THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A ~1032MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
THE NC OUTER BANKS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GENERALLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A FEW THIN BANDS OF CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD.
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE
MODERATED INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S WITH A LIGHT SSW WIND ON THE
NW PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST. AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE DOMINATED
BY THE CURRENT COOL/DRY AIRMASS. HENCE TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP
QUICKLY INTO THE 30S THIS EVENING UNDER A CLEAR SKY...EVENTUALLY
REACHING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD
THICKEN LATE...AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. HENCE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME STEADY OR EVEN
SLOWLY RISE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...THICKEN...AND LOWER FROM THE SW SUN
AS GULF COAST MOISTURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFT NE THROUGH
THE SE CONUS...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT SOME RAIN
SHOULD ARRIVE IN SW PORTIONS LATE IN THE DAY...WITH 60% POPS SW
LATE IN THE DAY...BORDERED BY A 30-50% POP FROM THE NW PIEDMONT
THROUGH NE NC. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW TO LOW 60S
SE.

THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WILL CROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION PRIMARILY FROM SUN EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE (+3 ST DEV PW 03-06Z MON PER
22/15Z SREF) WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DUE TO A STRONG NEARLY 70KT
LLJ. POPS FOR RAIN DURING THE 12HR PERIOD SUN NIGHT HAVE BEEN
RAISED TO 100%. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
COASTAL NE NC. HOWEVER...0-3KM LAPSE RATES SEEM TO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR THROUGHOUT THE 22/12Z SUITE OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...OFFSETTING
A STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELD. GIVEN THIS...THE SPC SLIGHT RISK HAS
BEEN SHUNTED S OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND 6HR PRESSURE FALLS OF -7MB TO -10MB PER 22/12Z GFS
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF
THE COAST. GUSTS FROM THE SSE DIRECTION OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. LOWS SUN NIGHT SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 50S...WITH
READINGS LIKELY TO RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG FORCING AND
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A ~6HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SUN NIGHT...WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS
AVERAGING 1.00-1.25IN.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION BY 12Z MON...WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE FAR WRN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUE. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING...WITH A GUSTY SW WIND
DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S (SEE THE
THE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS). 22/12Z NAM LINGERS MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO 20-30% DUE TO THE APPROACH
OF THE COLD FRONT AND SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE INLAND...WITH CLOUDS LINGERING NEAR THE COAST
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TUE. HIGHS TUE SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER MORNING LOWS FROM THE
MID 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MODELS NOW SHOWING SRN STREAM LO PRES OVR THE ERN GULF TUE
EVENG...WILL TRACK NNE AND JUST OFF THE EAST CST TUE NGT INTO WED
NGT. THUS...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR RAIN TO 40%-60% (HIGHEST IN THE
ERN HALF OF THE REGION) DURING WED. PCPN/MOIST THEN MOVES E OF THE
AREA AND OFF THE CST LATER WED EVENG/WED NGT...WITH POPS DIMINISHING
FM W TO E. A MAINLY DRY FRONT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO
EARLY FRI MORNG. HI PRES WILL THEN BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI
THRU SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S WED...IN THE UPR 40S TO LWR
50S THU...IN THE MID TO UPR 40S FRI...AND RANGE THRU THE 40S SAT.
MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S WED MORNG...IN THE UPR
20S TO MID 30S THU AND FRI MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S
SAT MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE VA/NC BOARDER WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST DURING THE EVENING. THIS WILL CONTINUE A SOUTHERLY WIND
DIRECTION WHILE INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.

A MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL HELP FORM A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE SE US AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVES NE OUT OF THE GOMEX
ON SUN. THIS WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AS A WARM FRONT
SURGES THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS(POSSIBLY
LOWER) DUE TO LOWERED CEILINGS AND REDUCED VIS DUE TO RAIN.
ALSO...WIND GUST TO 35KT MAY BE POSSIBLE MON MORNING AS THE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE OVER NE NC/SE VA.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE HOISTED SCA`S FOR THE ENTIRE WTRS STARTING SUN EVENG...AND
LASTING THRU MON AFTN/EVENG OR MON NGT FOR THE CHES BAY/CURRITUCK
SND AND THE CSTL WTRS. HI PRES SLIDES OUT TO SEA DURING SUN...WITH
LO PRES MOVNG FM THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY NNE THRU THE GRT LKS AND
INTO ERN CANADA SUN EVENG INTO MON NGT. SE OR S WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACRS THE WTRS/REGION LATE SUN INTO MON MORNG IN ADVANCE
OF A COLD FRONT. SE OR S WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO/ARND
30 KNOTS EXPECTED SUN EVENG INTO MON EVENG...WITH WAVES BLDNG TO 3
TO 5 FT IN THE CHES BAY...AND SEAS BLDNG TO 5 TO 8 FEET ON THE
CSTL WTRS. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WTRS MON NGT...WITH CALMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE INTO TUE NGT. STRONG NE OR N WINDS THEN
EXPECTED WED INTO WED NGT...AS LO PRES TRACKS NWRD JUST OFF THE
EAST CST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ633-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...TMG
CLIMATE...AKQ






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 222157
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
457 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND
MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY INDICATES A POTENT TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS
TX...WITH A BROAD RIDGE DOWNSTREAM COVERING THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A ~1032MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
THE NC OUTER BANKS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GENERALLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A FEW THIN BANDS OF CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD.
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE
MODERATED INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S WITH A LIGHT SSW WIND ON THE
NW PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST. AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE DOMINATED
BY THE CURRENT COOL/DRY AIRMASS. HENCE TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP
QUICKLY INTO THE 30S THIS EVENING UNDER A CLEAR SKY...EVENTUALLY
REACHING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD
THICKEN LATE...AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. HENCE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME STEADY OR EVEN
SLOWLY RISE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...THICKEN...AND LOWER FROM THE SW SUN
AS GULF COAST MOISTURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFT NE THROUGH
THE SE CONUS...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT SOME RAIN
SHOULD ARRIVE IN SW PORTIONS LATE IN THE DAY...WITH 60% POPS SW
LATE IN THE DAY...BORDERED BY A 30-50% POP FROM THE NW PIEDMONT
THROUGH NE NC. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW TO LOW 60S
SE.

THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WILL CROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION PRIMARILY FROM SUN EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE (+3 ST DEV PW 03-06Z MON PER
22/15Z SREF) WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DUE TO A STRONG NEARLY 70KT
LLJ. POPS FOR RAIN DURING THE 12HR PERIOD SUN NIGHT HAVE BEEN
RAISED TO 100%. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
COASTAL NE NC. HOWEVER...0-3KM LAPSE RATES SEEM TO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR THROUGHOUT THE 22/12Z SUITE OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...OFFSETTING
A STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELD. GIVEN THIS...THE SPC SLIGHT RISK HAS
BEEN SHUNTED S OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND 6HR PRESSURE FALLS OF -7MB TO -10MB PER 22/12Z GFS
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF
THE COAST. GUSTS FROM THE SSE DIRECTION OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. LOWS SUN NIGHT SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 50S...WITH
READINGS LIKELY TO RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG FORCING AND
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A ~6HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SUN NIGHT...WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS
AVERAGING 1.00-1.25IN.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION BY 12Z MON...WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE FAR WRN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUE. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING...WITH A GUSTY SW WIND
DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S (SEE THE
THE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS). 22/12Z NAM LINGERS MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO 20-30% DUE TO THE APPROACH
OF THE COLD FRONT AND SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE INLAND...WITH CLOUDS LINGERING NEAR THE COAST
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TUE. HIGHS TUE SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER MORNING LOWS FROM THE
MID 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MODELS NOW SHOWING SRN STREAM LO PRES OVR THE ERN GULF TUE
EVENG...WILL TRACK NNE AND JUST OFF THE EAST CST TUE NGT INTO WED
NGT. THUS...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR RAIN TO 40%-60% (HIGHEST IN THE
ERN HALF OF THE REGION) DURING WED. PCPN/MOIST THEN MOVES E OF THE
AREA AND OFF THE CST LATER WED EVENG/WED NGT...WITH POPS DIMINISHING
FM W TO E. A MAINLY DRY FRONT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO
EARLY FRI MORNG. HI PRES WILL THEN BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI
THRU SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S WED...IN THE UPR 40S TO LWR
50S THU...IN THE MID TO UPR 40S FRI...AND RANGE THRU THE 40S SAT.
MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S WED MORNG...IN THE UPR
20S TO MID 30S THU AND FRI MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S
SAT MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE VA/NC BOARDER WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST DURING THE EVENING. THIS WILL CONTINUE A SOUTHERLY WIND
DIRECTION WHILE INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.

A MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL HELP FORM A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE SE US AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVES NE OUT OF THE GOMEX
ON SUN. THIS WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AS A WARM FRONT
SURGES THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS(POSSIBLY
LOWER) DUE TO LOWERED CEILINGS AND REDUCED VIS DUE TO RAIN.
ALSO...WIND GUST TO 35KT MAY BE POSSIBLE MON MORNING AS THE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE OVER NE NC/SE VA.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE HOISTED SCA`S FOR THE ENTIRE WTRS STARTING SUN EVENG...AND
LASTING THRU MON AFTN/EVENG OR MON NGT FOR THE CHES BAY/CURRITUCK
SND AND THE CSTL WTRS. HI PRES SLIDES OUT TO SEA DURING SUN...WITH
LO PRES MOVNG FM THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY NNE THRU THE GRT LKS AND
INTO ERN CANADA SUN EVENG INTO MON NGT. SE OR S WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACRS THE WTRS/REGION LATE SUN INTO MON MORNG IN ADVANCE
OF A COLD FRONT. SE OR S WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO/ARND
30 KNOTS EXPECTED SUN EVENG INTO MON EVENG...WITH WAVES BLDNG TO 3
TO 5 FT IN THE CHES BAY...AND SEAS BLDNG TO 5 TO 8 FEET ON THE
CSTL WTRS. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WTRS MON NGT...WITH CALMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE INTO TUE NGT. STRONG NE OR N WINDS THEN
EXPECTED WED INTO WED NGT...AS LO PRES TRACKS NWRD JUST OFF THE
EAST CST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ633-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...TMG
CLIMATE...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KPHI 222129
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
429 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EDGING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...DRAWING A STRONG WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH
OUR AREA. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR JAMES BAY MONDAY EVENING AS IT SENDS
A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD STATES. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATER TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY AND MOVES EAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON THANKSGIVING.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HEADS SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE FLOW BACKS SOME MORE IN COMBINATION WITH A
SURFACE HIGH SLIDING TO OUR SOUTHEAST, A LARGE AREA OF WAA WILL
OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS IS MORE NOTED TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST
CLOSER TO THE CORE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE WARMING CHIPS AWAY AT THE REMAINING COOLER
AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE. THIS PROCESS IS LEADING TO AN AREA OF
CLOUDINESS THAT CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

THE WAA AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE HAS
BEEN GENERATING AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM CENTRAL NEW
YORK/PENNSYLVANIA ON NORTHEASTWARD. SOME OF THIS WILL MOVE ACROSS
OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES THROUGH THIS EVENING, HOWEVER WITH THE MAIN
LOW-LEVEL JET PASSING TO OUR NORTH ALONG WITH THE BETTER LIFT THERE,
ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AND SPOTTY. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER DRY LAYER IN THE LOWEST LEVELS
AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK FORCING RESULTS VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
THERE IS LITTLE MODEL SUPPORT TO BRING IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION,
AND THE WPC QPF IS PRETTY MUCH DRY. SINCE THIS LOOKS LIKE A RATHER
LOW CHC POTENTIAL OF SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE, WE WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY AND GO WITH A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT ATTM. FARTHER SOUTHEAST FOR A TIME, A FEW
SPRINKLES COULD OCCUR THROUGH ABOUT MID EVENING.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN NAM/GFS MOS BLEND AND THEN
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS. THESE COULD BE TRICKY GIVEN THE LOW DEW
POINTS. HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF SOME CLOUDS, A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WIND AND A MODERATING AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
NOT AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS USED TO HELP
WITH TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AMPLIFYING DURING SUNDAY
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME RIDGING TO DEVELOP
DOWNSTREAM, RESULTING IN THE SURFACE HIGH TO BECOME ANCHORED
OFFSHORE. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WITH WAA CONTINUING
AND EVEN STRENGTHENING SOME DURING THE DAY, A WARMER DAY IS
ANTICIPATED.

THE LOCATION OF A LOW-LEVEL JET IN COMBINATION OF SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD KEEP ANY MORNING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH. MEANWHILE, A WARM FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES IN
THE VICINITY OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE THERE
WILL BE SOME CLOUDS AROUND, SOME THINNING SHOULD OCCUR FOR A TIME
BEFORE AN INCREASE DEVELOPS AGAIN TOWARD EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT
ANY ORGANIZED LIFT REMAINS AWAY FROM OUR AREA, THEREFORE WE WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, A GFS/NAM MOS BLEND WAS GENERALLY USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
**RECORD WARMTH MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM/EVENT
 FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY**

ANOTHER HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH NEAR 100W LONGITUDE TO START SUNDAY
NIGHT LIFTS NEWD INTO QUEBEC BY TUESDAY WITH A NEW TROUGH EVOLVING
OVER THE EASTERN USA WEDNESDAY BUT FULL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE SHORT WAVE INTERACTIONS - AMPLITUDE AND TRANSLATION SPEEDS. SO
WHILE A MID ATLANTIC COASTAL WINTER EVENT IS FORECAST, IT IS NOT
YET A LOCK DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UNCERTAINTY. A GENERAL
CYCLONIC FLOW AT MID LEVELS CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES HAVE BEEN BELOW NORMAL SINCE THE
13TH (9 CONSECUTIVE DAYS).  MODELS AGREE ON TEMPS ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY...MAYBE 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY...
BELOW NORMAL WED-FRI AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/22 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT. THEN THE 12Z/22 GFS
MOS IS APPLIED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER (WEDNESDAY
ONWARD) THE 1522Z/22 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES IS BLENDED
50 50 WITH THE 12Z/22 GFS MEXMOS. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED
AGAINST THE 12Z/22 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH
ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/22 SREF 3HRLY POPS
FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/22 GEFS 6HR
POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY NIGHT...WAA WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLY HEAVY FOR A TIME. AN ISOLATED SVR TSTM IS
NOT IMPOSSIBLE IN DEL/NJ WITH SWI -1, TT 48, KI 32 AND 60-70KT
WIND AT 850 MB ON THE ECMWF IN THE 3AM-6 AM (08Z-11Z) TIME FRAME.
12Z NAM HAS SIMILAR ELEVATED INSTABILITY AT 09Z MONDAY. 12Z GFS
LEAST ROBUST OF THE THREE 12Z MODELS MENTIONED. GRIDS HAVE THE CHC
TSTM IN SNJ AND THE DELMARVA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY...WINDY AND WARM (AFTER EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS RACE NE AT 50 KTS (NEAR 60 MPH). RECORD WARMTH
EXPECTED AND SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH. BLENDED TRANSPORT
WIND SUPPORTS 40 MPH GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY 45.

MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MAYBE A LOW TOPPED SPRINKLE OR
SHOWER ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY (MOSTLY CIRRUS)...BREEZY AND
STILL WITH TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY. THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS
PRETTY STABLE THESE PAST TWO CYCLES AND HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
FURTHEST WEST WITH THIS OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. THE 12Z GFS HAS MOVED WEST WITH THE TRACK. NO LOCK ON THE
TRACK SINCE SHORT WAVE INTERACTIONS SHOW VARIABILITY IN THE
ENSEMBLES. STILL...IT LOOKS AS IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMP IS GOING
TO GOVERN WHERE ITS MOSTLY SNOW. DAYTIME TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

ADVISE ALL WITH TRAVEL PLANS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN OUR
FORECAST AREA TO CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS. THIS COULD BECOME
A SNOW STORM FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH PLOWABLE SNOW
AND NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES....ESPECIALLY THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

THAT WOULD MEAN A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DUE TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL AND ONE
OF THE BUSIEST AIR TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR.

IF THIS FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR SUNDAY...BRIEFING PACKAGES WOULD
BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 330 PM.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AS THE PRIME TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...WPC GUIDANCE WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS AS A
LOW LVL WNW FLOW APPEARS TO PREVAIL WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
HEADING ESEWD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 5,000 FEET FOR
MOST TERMINALS. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL BE AROUND MAINLY FROM
NEAR THE KPHL METRO ON NORTH AND WESTWARD. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SOME LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR, WITH AREAS OF CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 5,000 FEET.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

SUNDAY...VFR, WITH CEILINGS AT TIMES ABOVE 5,000 FEET. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5-8 KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTHEAST LATE.

OUTLOOK...
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 12Z MON...VERY POOR FLYING CONDS WITH
MVFR EXPECTED AND IFR PSBL IF NOT PROBABLE IN PERIODS OF SHOWERY
RAINS. RAIN COULD BE HVY AT TIMES WITH A POSSIBLE TSTM AFTER 06Z/24
SUNDAY NIGHT. E TO SE WIND COULD GUST IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE
TOWARD 09Z MONDAY. LLWS POTENTIAL AT KACY NEAR 09Z MONDAY. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FT
(AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS RAPIDLY DEPART NEWD BY 14Z). SW WIND
GUST 30-38 KT. CFP/SHIFT MON EVE WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE...ESPECIALLY E PA. MDT CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A COASTAL
LOW. COULD BE VFR IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH EAST OR MVFR/IFR IN RAIN/SNOW
AND WIND IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH W. AS IT STANDS WITH TODAYS MODEL AND
NCEP COLLABORATED GUIDANCE...PLAN ON PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO SOME
SNOW AND A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE LOW TO MODERATE.

THURSDAY...VFR CIGS WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDS IN
SCT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH SUNDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN SOME THROUGH
MUCH OF TONIGHT. A LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO TRACK MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH, HOWEVER THE 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS TONIGHT.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MIXING OCCURS, ALTHOUGH SURFACE
GUSTS MAY BE MARGINAL. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALSO BUILD THE
SEAS, HOWEVER THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS MAY SETUP TO OUR
NORTHEAST. SINCE THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL, WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 11Z SUNDAY FOR ALL BUT THE DELAWARE
BAY. THE CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH
STRONGEST INFLOW SE WINDS OF POTENTIAL 35-40 KT GUSTS NEAR DAWN
MONDAY. WINDS SHIFT SW IN THE WARM SECTOR AND MAY GUST 35 KT ALONG
THE COAST WHERE NEAR RECORD WARMTH PREVAILS.

BLENDED 12Z/22 NAM/GFS TRANSPORT WIND SUPPORTS GALE GUSTS 06Z MONDAY-
02Z TUESDAY. FOR NOW THE GALE WATCH ENDS AT 22Z MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY....A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SCA CONDS AS SEAS
AND WIND EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...PLAN ON SCA CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING AS A COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPS. SMALL POTENTIAL FOR A GALE LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG 428P
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 428P
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 428P
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 222129
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
429 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EDGING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...DRAWING A STRONG WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH
OUR AREA. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR JAMES BAY MONDAY EVENING AS IT SENDS
A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD STATES. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATER TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY AND MOVES EAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON THANKSGIVING.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HEADS SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE FLOW BACKS SOME MORE IN COMBINATION WITH A
SURFACE HIGH SLIDING TO OUR SOUTHEAST, A LARGE AREA OF WAA WILL
OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS IS MORE NOTED TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST
CLOSER TO THE CORE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE WARMING CHIPS AWAY AT THE REMAINING COOLER
AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE. THIS PROCESS IS LEADING TO AN AREA OF
CLOUDINESS THAT CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

THE WAA AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE HAS
BEEN GENERATING AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM CENTRAL NEW
YORK/PENNSYLVANIA ON NORTHEASTWARD. SOME OF THIS WILL MOVE ACROSS
OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES THROUGH THIS EVENING, HOWEVER WITH THE MAIN
LOW-LEVEL JET PASSING TO OUR NORTH ALONG WITH THE BETTER LIFT THERE,
ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AND SPOTTY. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER DRY LAYER IN THE LOWEST LEVELS
AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK FORCING RESULTS VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
THERE IS LITTLE MODEL SUPPORT TO BRING IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION,
AND THE WPC QPF IS PRETTY MUCH DRY. SINCE THIS LOOKS LIKE A RATHER
LOW CHC POTENTIAL OF SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE, WE WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY AND GO WITH A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT ATTM. FARTHER SOUTHEAST FOR A TIME, A FEW
SPRINKLES COULD OCCUR THROUGH ABOUT MID EVENING.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN NAM/GFS MOS BLEND AND THEN
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS. THESE COULD BE TRICKY GIVEN THE LOW DEW
POINTS. HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF SOME CLOUDS, A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WIND AND A MODERATING AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
NOT AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS USED TO HELP
WITH TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AMPLIFYING DURING SUNDAY
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME RIDGING TO DEVELOP
DOWNSTREAM, RESULTING IN THE SURFACE HIGH TO BECOME ANCHORED
OFFSHORE. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WITH WAA CONTINUING
AND EVEN STRENGTHENING SOME DURING THE DAY, A WARMER DAY IS
ANTICIPATED.

THE LOCATION OF A LOW-LEVEL JET IN COMBINATION OF SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD KEEP ANY MORNING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH. MEANWHILE, A WARM FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES IN
THE VICINITY OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE THERE
WILL BE SOME CLOUDS AROUND, SOME THINNING SHOULD OCCUR FOR A TIME
BEFORE AN INCREASE DEVELOPS AGAIN TOWARD EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT
ANY ORGANIZED LIFT REMAINS AWAY FROM OUR AREA, THEREFORE WE WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, A GFS/NAM MOS BLEND WAS GENERALLY USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
**RECORD WARMTH MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM/EVENT
 FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY**

ANOTHER HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH NEAR 100W LONGITUDE TO START SUNDAY
NIGHT LIFTS NEWD INTO QUEBEC BY TUESDAY WITH A NEW TROUGH EVOLVING
OVER THE EASTERN USA WEDNESDAY BUT FULL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE SHORT WAVE INTERACTIONS - AMPLITUDE AND TRANSLATION SPEEDS. SO
WHILE A MID ATLANTIC COASTAL WINTER EVENT IS FORECAST, IT IS NOT
YET A LOCK DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UNCERTAINTY. A GENERAL
CYCLONIC FLOW AT MID LEVELS CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES HAVE BEEN BELOW NORMAL SINCE THE
13TH (9 CONSECUTIVE DAYS).  MODELS AGREE ON TEMPS ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY...MAYBE 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY...
BELOW NORMAL WED-FRI AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/22 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT. THEN THE 12Z/22 GFS
MOS IS APPLIED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER (WEDNESDAY
ONWARD) THE 1522Z/22 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES IS BLENDED
50 50 WITH THE 12Z/22 GFS MEXMOS. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED
AGAINST THE 12Z/22 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH
ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/22 SREF 3HRLY POPS
FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/22 GEFS 6HR
POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY NIGHT...WAA WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLY HEAVY FOR A TIME. AN ISOLATED SVR TSTM IS
NOT IMPOSSIBLE IN DEL/NJ WITH SWI -1, TT 48, KI 32 AND 60-70KT
WIND AT 850 MB ON THE ECMWF IN THE 3AM-6 AM (08Z-11Z) TIME FRAME.
12Z NAM HAS SIMILAR ELEVATED INSTABILITY AT 09Z MONDAY. 12Z GFS
LEAST ROBUST OF THE THREE 12Z MODELS MENTIONED. GRIDS HAVE THE CHC
TSTM IN SNJ AND THE DELMARVA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY...WINDY AND WARM (AFTER EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS RACE NE AT 50 KTS (NEAR 60 MPH). RECORD WARMTH
EXPECTED AND SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH. BLENDED TRANSPORT
WIND SUPPORTS 40 MPH GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY 45.

MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MAYBE A LOW TOPPED SPRINKLE OR
SHOWER ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY (MOSTLY CIRRUS)...BREEZY AND
STILL WITH TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY. THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS
PRETTY STABLE THESE PAST TWO CYCLES AND HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
FURTHEST WEST WITH THIS OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. THE 12Z GFS HAS MOVED WEST WITH THE TRACK. NO LOCK ON THE
TRACK SINCE SHORT WAVE INTERACTIONS SHOW VARIABILITY IN THE
ENSEMBLES. STILL...IT LOOKS AS IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMP IS GOING
TO GOVERN WHERE ITS MOSTLY SNOW. DAYTIME TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

ADVISE ALL WITH TRAVEL PLANS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN OUR
FORECAST AREA TO CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS. THIS COULD BECOME
A SNOW STORM FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH PLOWABLE SNOW
AND NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES....ESPECIALLY THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

THAT WOULD MEAN A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DUE TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL AND ONE
OF THE BUSIEST AIR TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR.

IF THIS FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR SUNDAY...BRIEFING PACKAGES WOULD
BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 330 PM.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AS THE PRIME TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...WPC GUIDANCE WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS AS A
LOW LVL WNW FLOW APPEARS TO PREVAIL WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
HEADING ESEWD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 5,000 FEET FOR
MOST TERMINALS. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL BE AROUND MAINLY FROM
NEAR THE KPHL METRO ON NORTH AND WESTWARD. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SOME LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR, WITH AREAS OF CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 5,000 FEET.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

SUNDAY...VFR, WITH CEILINGS AT TIMES ABOVE 5,000 FEET. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5-8 KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTHEAST LATE.

OUTLOOK...
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 12Z MON...VERY POOR FLYING CONDS WITH
MVFR EXPECTED AND IFR PSBL IF NOT PROBABLE IN PERIODS OF SHOWERY
RAINS. RAIN COULD BE HVY AT TIMES WITH A POSSIBLE TSTM AFTER 06Z/24
SUNDAY NIGHT. E TO SE WIND COULD GUST IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE
TOWARD 09Z MONDAY. LLWS POTENTIAL AT KACY NEAR 09Z MONDAY. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FT
(AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS RAPIDLY DEPART NEWD BY 14Z). SW WIND
GUST 30-38 KT. CFP/SHIFT MON EVE WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE...ESPECIALLY E PA. MDT CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A COASTAL
LOW. COULD BE VFR IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH EAST OR MVFR/IFR IN RAIN/SNOW
AND WIND IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH W. AS IT STANDS WITH TODAYS MODEL AND
NCEP COLLABORATED GUIDANCE...PLAN ON PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO SOME
SNOW AND A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE LOW TO MODERATE.

THURSDAY...VFR CIGS WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDS IN
SCT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH SUNDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN SOME THROUGH
MUCH OF TONIGHT. A LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO TRACK MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH, HOWEVER THE 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS TONIGHT.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MIXING OCCURS, ALTHOUGH SURFACE
GUSTS MAY BE MARGINAL. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALSO BUILD THE
SEAS, HOWEVER THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS MAY SETUP TO OUR
NORTHEAST. SINCE THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL, WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 11Z SUNDAY FOR ALL BUT THE DELAWARE
BAY. THE CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH
STRONGEST INFLOW SE WINDS OF POTENTIAL 35-40 KT GUSTS NEAR DAWN
MONDAY. WINDS SHIFT SW IN THE WARM SECTOR AND MAY GUST 35 KT ALONG
THE COAST WHERE NEAR RECORD WARMTH PREVAILS.

BLENDED 12Z/22 NAM/GFS TRANSPORT WIND SUPPORTS GALE GUSTS 06Z MONDAY-
02Z TUESDAY. FOR NOW THE GALE WATCH ENDS AT 22Z MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY....A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SCA CONDS AS SEAS
AND WIND EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...PLAN ON SCA CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING AS A COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPS. SMALL POTENTIAL FOR A GALE LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG 428P
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 428P
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 428P
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 222129
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
429 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EDGING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...DRAWING A STRONG WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH
OUR AREA. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR JAMES BAY MONDAY EVENING AS IT SENDS
A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD STATES. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATER TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY AND MOVES EAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON THANKSGIVING.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HEADS SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE FLOW BACKS SOME MORE IN COMBINATION WITH A
SURFACE HIGH SLIDING TO OUR SOUTHEAST, A LARGE AREA OF WAA WILL
OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS IS MORE NOTED TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST
CLOSER TO THE CORE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE WARMING CHIPS AWAY AT THE REMAINING COOLER
AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE. THIS PROCESS IS LEADING TO AN AREA OF
CLOUDINESS THAT CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

THE WAA AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE HAS
BEEN GENERATING AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM CENTRAL NEW
YORK/PENNSYLVANIA ON NORTHEASTWARD. SOME OF THIS WILL MOVE ACROSS
OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES THROUGH THIS EVENING, HOWEVER WITH THE MAIN
LOW-LEVEL JET PASSING TO OUR NORTH ALONG WITH THE BETTER LIFT THERE,
ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AND SPOTTY. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER DRY LAYER IN THE LOWEST LEVELS
AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK FORCING RESULTS VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
THERE IS LITTLE MODEL SUPPORT TO BRING IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION,
AND THE WPC QPF IS PRETTY MUCH DRY. SINCE THIS LOOKS LIKE A RATHER
LOW CHC POTENTIAL OF SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE, WE WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY AND GO WITH A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT ATTM. FARTHER SOUTHEAST FOR A TIME, A FEW
SPRINKLES COULD OCCUR THROUGH ABOUT MID EVENING.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN NAM/GFS MOS BLEND AND THEN
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS. THESE COULD BE TRICKY GIVEN THE LOW DEW
POINTS. HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF SOME CLOUDS, A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WIND AND A MODERATING AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
NOT AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS USED TO HELP
WITH TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AMPLIFYING DURING SUNDAY
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME RIDGING TO DEVELOP
DOWNSTREAM, RESULTING IN THE SURFACE HIGH TO BECOME ANCHORED
OFFSHORE. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WITH WAA CONTINUING
AND EVEN STRENGTHENING SOME DURING THE DAY, A WARMER DAY IS
ANTICIPATED.

THE LOCATION OF A LOW-LEVEL JET IN COMBINATION OF SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD KEEP ANY MORNING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH. MEANWHILE, A WARM FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES IN
THE VICINITY OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE THERE
WILL BE SOME CLOUDS AROUND, SOME THINNING SHOULD OCCUR FOR A TIME
BEFORE AN INCREASE DEVELOPS AGAIN TOWARD EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT
ANY ORGANIZED LIFT REMAINS AWAY FROM OUR AREA, THEREFORE WE WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, A GFS/NAM MOS BLEND WAS GENERALLY USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
**RECORD WARMTH MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM/EVENT
 FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY**

ANOTHER HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH NEAR 100W LONGITUDE TO START SUNDAY
NIGHT LIFTS NEWD INTO QUEBEC BY TUESDAY WITH A NEW TROUGH EVOLVING
OVER THE EASTERN USA WEDNESDAY BUT FULL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE SHORT WAVE INTERACTIONS - AMPLITUDE AND TRANSLATION SPEEDS. SO
WHILE A MID ATLANTIC COASTAL WINTER EVENT IS FORECAST, IT IS NOT
YET A LOCK DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UNCERTAINTY. A GENERAL
CYCLONIC FLOW AT MID LEVELS CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES HAVE BEEN BELOW NORMAL SINCE THE
13TH (9 CONSECUTIVE DAYS).  MODELS AGREE ON TEMPS ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY...MAYBE 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY...
BELOW NORMAL WED-FRI AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/22 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT. THEN THE 12Z/22 GFS
MOS IS APPLIED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER (WEDNESDAY
ONWARD) THE 1522Z/22 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES IS BLENDED
50 50 WITH THE 12Z/22 GFS MEXMOS. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED
AGAINST THE 12Z/22 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH
ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/22 SREF 3HRLY POPS
FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/22 GEFS 6HR
POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY NIGHT...WAA WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLY HEAVY FOR A TIME. AN ISOLATED SVR TSTM IS
NOT IMPOSSIBLE IN DEL/NJ WITH SWI -1, TT 48, KI 32 AND 60-70KT
WIND AT 850 MB ON THE ECMWF IN THE 3AM-6 AM (08Z-11Z) TIME FRAME.
12Z NAM HAS SIMILAR ELEVATED INSTABILITY AT 09Z MONDAY. 12Z GFS
LEAST ROBUST OF THE THREE 12Z MODELS MENTIONED. GRIDS HAVE THE CHC
TSTM IN SNJ AND THE DELMARVA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY...WINDY AND WARM (AFTER EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS RACE NE AT 50 KTS (NEAR 60 MPH). RECORD WARMTH
EXPECTED AND SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH. BLENDED TRANSPORT
WIND SUPPORTS 40 MPH GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY 45.

MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MAYBE A LOW TOPPED SPRINKLE OR
SHOWER ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY (MOSTLY CIRRUS)...BREEZY AND
STILL WITH TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY. THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS
PRETTY STABLE THESE PAST TWO CYCLES AND HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
FURTHEST WEST WITH THIS OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. THE 12Z GFS HAS MOVED WEST WITH THE TRACK. NO LOCK ON THE
TRACK SINCE SHORT WAVE INTERACTIONS SHOW VARIABILITY IN THE
ENSEMBLES. STILL...IT LOOKS AS IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMP IS GOING
TO GOVERN WHERE ITS MOSTLY SNOW. DAYTIME TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

ADVISE ALL WITH TRAVEL PLANS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN OUR
FORECAST AREA TO CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS. THIS COULD BECOME
A SNOW STORM FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH PLOWABLE SNOW
AND NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES....ESPECIALLY THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

THAT WOULD MEAN A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DUE TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL AND ONE
OF THE BUSIEST AIR TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR.

IF THIS FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR SUNDAY...BRIEFING PACKAGES WOULD
BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 330 PM.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AS THE PRIME TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...WPC GUIDANCE WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS AS A
LOW LVL WNW FLOW APPEARS TO PREVAIL WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
HEADING ESEWD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 5,000 FEET FOR
MOST TERMINALS. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL BE AROUND MAINLY FROM
NEAR THE KPHL METRO ON NORTH AND WESTWARD. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SOME LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR, WITH AREAS OF CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 5,000 FEET.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

SUNDAY...VFR, WITH CEILINGS AT TIMES ABOVE 5,000 FEET. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5-8 KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTHEAST LATE.

OUTLOOK...
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 12Z MON...VERY POOR FLYING CONDS WITH
MVFR EXPECTED AND IFR PSBL IF NOT PROBABLE IN PERIODS OF SHOWERY
RAINS. RAIN COULD BE HVY AT TIMES WITH A POSSIBLE TSTM AFTER 06Z/24
SUNDAY NIGHT. E TO SE WIND COULD GUST IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE
TOWARD 09Z MONDAY. LLWS POTENTIAL AT KACY NEAR 09Z MONDAY. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FT
(AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS RAPIDLY DEPART NEWD BY 14Z). SW WIND
GUST 30-38 KT. CFP/SHIFT MON EVE WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE...ESPECIALLY E PA. MDT CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A COASTAL
LOW. COULD BE VFR IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH EAST OR MVFR/IFR IN RAIN/SNOW
AND WIND IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH W. AS IT STANDS WITH TODAYS MODEL AND
NCEP COLLABORATED GUIDANCE...PLAN ON PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO SOME
SNOW AND A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE LOW TO MODERATE.

THURSDAY...VFR CIGS WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDS IN
SCT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH SUNDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN SOME THROUGH
MUCH OF TONIGHT. A LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO TRACK MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH, HOWEVER THE 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS TONIGHT.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MIXING OCCURS, ALTHOUGH SURFACE
GUSTS MAY BE MARGINAL. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALSO BUILD THE
SEAS, HOWEVER THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS MAY SETUP TO OUR
NORTHEAST. SINCE THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL, WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 11Z SUNDAY FOR ALL BUT THE DELAWARE
BAY. THE CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH
STRONGEST INFLOW SE WINDS OF POTENTIAL 35-40 KT GUSTS NEAR DAWN
MONDAY. WINDS SHIFT SW IN THE WARM SECTOR AND MAY GUST 35 KT ALONG
THE COAST WHERE NEAR RECORD WARMTH PREVAILS.

BLENDED 12Z/22 NAM/GFS TRANSPORT WIND SUPPORTS GALE GUSTS 06Z MONDAY-
02Z TUESDAY. FOR NOW THE GALE WATCH ENDS AT 22Z MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY....A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SCA CONDS AS SEAS
AND WIND EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...PLAN ON SCA CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING AS A COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPS. SMALL POTENTIAL FOR A GALE LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG 428P
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 428P
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 428P
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 222129
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
429 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EDGING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...DRAWING A STRONG WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH
OUR AREA. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR JAMES BAY MONDAY EVENING AS IT SENDS
A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD STATES. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATER TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY AND MOVES EAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON THANKSGIVING.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HEADS SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE FLOW BACKS SOME MORE IN COMBINATION WITH A
SURFACE HIGH SLIDING TO OUR SOUTHEAST, A LARGE AREA OF WAA WILL
OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS IS MORE NOTED TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST
CLOSER TO THE CORE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE WARMING CHIPS AWAY AT THE REMAINING COOLER
AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE. THIS PROCESS IS LEADING TO AN AREA OF
CLOUDINESS THAT CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

THE WAA AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE HAS
BEEN GENERATING AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM CENTRAL NEW
YORK/PENNSYLVANIA ON NORTHEASTWARD. SOME OF THIS WILL MOVE ACROSS
OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES THROUGH THIS EVENING, HOWEVER WITH THE MAIN
LOW-LEVEL JET PASSING TO OUR NORTH ALONG WITH THE BETTER LIFT THERE,
ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AND SPOTTY. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER DRY LAYER IN THE LOWEST LEVELS
AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK FORCING RESULTS VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
THERE IS LITTLE MODEL SUPPORT TO BRING IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION,
AND THE WPC QPF IS PRETTY MUCH DRY. SINCE THIS LOOKS LIKE A RATHER
LOW CHC POTENTIAL OF SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE, WE WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY AND GO WITH A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT ATTM. FARTHER SOUTHEAST FOR A TIME, A FEW
SPRINKLES COULD OCCUR THROUGH ABOUT MID EVENING.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN NAM/GFS MOS BLEND AND THEN
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS. THESE COULD BE TRICKY GIVEN THE LOW DEW
POINTS. HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF SOME CLOUDS, A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WIND AND A MODERATING AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
NOT AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS USED TO HELP
WITH TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AMPLIFYING DURING SUNDAY
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME RIDGING TO DEVELOP
DOWNSTREAM, RESULTING IN THE SURFACE HIGH TO BECOME ANCHORED
OFFSHORE. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WITH WAA CONTINUING
AND EVEN STRENGTHENING SOME DURING THE DAY, A WARMER DAY IS
ANTICIPATED.

THE LOCATION OF A LOW-LEVEL JET IN COMBINATION OF SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD KEEP ANY MORNING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH. MEANWHILE, A WARM FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES IN
THE VICINITY OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE THERE
WILL BE SOME CLOUDS AROUND, SOME THINNING SHOULD OCCUR FOR A TIME
BEFORE AN INCREASE DEVELOPS AGAIN TOWARD EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT
ANY ORGANIZED LIFT REMAINS AWAY FROM OUR AREA, THEREFORE WE WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, A GFS/NAM MOS BLEND WAS GENERALLY USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
**RECORD WARMTH MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM/EVENT
 FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY**

ANOTHER HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH NEAR 100W LONGITUDE TO START SUNDAY
NIGHT LIFTS NEWD INTO QUEBEC BY TUESDAY WITH A NEW TROUGH EVOLVING
OVER THE EASTERN USA WEDNESDAY BUT FULL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE SHORT WAVE INTERACTIONS - AMPLITUDE AND TRANSLATION SPEEDS. SO
WHILE A MID ATLANTIC COASTAL WINTER EVENT IS FORECAST, IT IS NOT
YET A LOCK DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UNCERTAINTY. A GENERAL
CYCLONIC FLOW AT MID LEVELS CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES HAVE BEEN BELOW NORMAL SINCE THE
13TH (9 CONSECUTIVE DAYS).  MODELS AGREE ON TEMPS ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY...MAYBE 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY...
BELOW NORMAL WED-FRI AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/22 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT. THEN THE 12Z/22 GFS
MOS IS APPLIED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER (WEDNESDAY
ONWARD) THE 1522Z/22 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES IS BLENDED
50 50 WITH THE 12Z/22 GFS MEXMOS. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED
AGAINST THE 12Z/22 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH
ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/22 SREF 3HRLY POPS
FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/22 GEFS 6HR
POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY NIGHT...WAA WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLY HEAVY FOR A TIME. AN ISOLATED SVR TSTM IS
NOT IMPOSSIBLE IN DEL/NJ WITH SWI -1, TT 48, KI 32 AND 60-70KT
WIND AT 850 MB ON THE ECMWF IN THE 3AM-6 AM (08Z-11Z) TIME FRAME.
12Z NAM HAS SIMILAR ELEVATED INSTABILITY AT 09Z MONDAY. 12Z GFS
LEAST ROBUST OF THE THREE 12Z MODELS MENTIONED. GRIDS HAVE THE CHC
TSTM IN SNJ AND THE DELMARVA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY...WINDY AND WARM (AFTER EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS RACE NE AT 50 KTS (NEAR 60 MPH). RECORD WARMTH
EXPECTED AND SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH. BLENDED TRANSPORT
WIND SUPPORTS 40 MPH GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY 45.

MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MAYBE A LOW TOPPED SPRINKLE OR
SHOWER ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY (MOSTLY CIRRUS)...BREEZY AND
STILL WITH TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY. THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS
PRETTY STABLE THESE PAST TWO CYCLES AND HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
FURTHEST WEST WITH THIS OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. THE 12Z GFS HAS MOVED WEST WITH THE TRACK. NO LOCK ON THE
TRACK SINCE SHORT WAVE INTERACTIONS SHOW VARIABILITY IN THE
ENSEMBLES. STILL...IT LOOKS AS IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMP IS GOING
TO GOVERN WHERE ITS MOSTLY SNOW. DAYTIME TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

ADVISE ALL WITH TRAVEL PLANS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN OUR
FORECAST AREA TO CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS. THIS COULD BECOME
A SNOW STORM FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH PLOWABLE SNOW
AND NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES....ESPECIALLY THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

THAT WOULD MEAN A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DUE TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL AND ONE
OF THE BUSIEST AIR TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR.

IF THIS FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR SUNDAY...BRIEFING PACKAGES WOULD
BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 330 PM.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AS THE PRIME TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...WPC GUIDANCE WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS AS A
LOW LVL WNW FLOW APPEARS TO PREVAIL WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
HEADING ESEWD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 5,000 FEET FOR
MOST TERMINALS. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL BE AROUND MAINLY FROM
NEAR THE KPHL METRO ON NORTH AND WESTWARD. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SOME LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR, WITH AREAS OF CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 5,000 FEET.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

SUNDAY...VFR, WITH CEILINGS AT TIMES ABOVE 5,000 FEET. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5-8 KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTHEAST LATE.

OUTLOOK...
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 12Z MON...VERY POOR FLYING CONDS WITH
MVFR EXPECTED AND IFR PSBL IF NOT PROBABLE IN PERIODS OF SHOWERY
RAINS. RAIN COULD BE HVY AT TIMES WITH A POSSIBLE TSTM AFTER 06Z/24
SUNDAY NIGHT. E TO SE WIND COULD GUST IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE
TOWARD 09Z MONDAY. LLWS POTENTIAL AT KACY NEAR 09Z MONDAY. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FT
(AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS RAPIDLY DEPART NEWD BY 14Z). SW WIND
GUST 30-38 KT. CFP/SHIFT MON EVE WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE...ESPECIALLY E PA. MDT CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A COASTAL
LOW. COULD BE VFR IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH EAST OR MVFR/IFR IN RAIN/SNOW
AND WIND IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH W. AS IT STANDS WITH TODAYS MODEL AND
NCEP COLLABORATED GUIDANCE...PLAN ON PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO SOME
SNOW AND A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE LOW TO MODERATE.

THURSDAY...VFR CIGS WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDS IN
SCT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH SUNDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN SOME THROUGH
MUCH OF TONIGHT. A LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO TRACK MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH, HOWEVER THE 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS TONIGHT.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MIXING OCCURS, ALTHOUGH SURFACE
GUSTS MAY BE MARGINAL. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALSO BUILD THE
SEAS, HOWEVER THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS MAY SETUP TO OUR
NORTHEAST. SINCE THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL, WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 11Z SUNDAY FOR ALL BUT THE DELAWARE
BAY. THE CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH
STRONGEST INFLOW SE WINDS OF POTENTIAL 35-40 KT GUSTS NEAR DAWN
MONDAY. WINDS SHIFT SW IN THE WARM SECTOR AND MAY GUST 35 KT ALONG
THE COAST WHERE NEAR RECORD WARMTH PREVAILS.

BLENDED 12Z/22 NAM/GFS TRANSPORT WIND SUPPORTS GALE GUSTS 06Z MONDAY-
02Z TUESDAY. FOR NOW THE GALE WATCH ENDS AT 22Z MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY....A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SCA CONDS AS SEAS
AND WIND EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...PLAN ON SCA CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING AS A COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPS. SMALL POTENTIAL FOR A GALE LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG 428P
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 428P
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 428P
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 222102
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
402 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EDGING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...DRAWING A STRONG WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH
OUR AREA. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR JAMES BAY MONDAY EVENING AS IT SENDS
A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD STATES. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATER TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY AND MOVES EAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON THANKSGIVING.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HEADS SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE FLOW BACKS SOME MORE IN COMBINATION WITH A
SURFACE HIGH SLIDING TO OUR SOUTHEAST, A LARGE AREA OF WAA WILL
OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS IS MORE NOTED TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST
CLOSER TO THE CORE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE WARMING CHIPS AWAY AT THE REMAINING COOLER
AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE. THIS PROCESS IS LEADING TO AN AREA OF
CLOUDINESS THAT CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

THE WAA AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE HAS
BEEN GENERATING AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM CENTRAL NEW
YORK/PENNSYLVANIA ON NORTHEASTWARD. SOME OF THIS WILL MOVE ACROSS
OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES THROUGH THIS EVENING, HOWEVER WITH THE MAIN
LOW-LEVEL JET PASSING TO OUR NORTH ALONG WITH THE BETTER LIFT THERE,
ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AND SPOTTY. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER DRY LAYER IN THE LOWEST LEVELS
AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK FORCING RESULTS VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
THERE IS LITTLE MODEL SUPPORT TO BRING IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION,
AND THE WPC QPF IS PRETTY MUCH DRY. SINCE THIS LOOKS LIKE A RATHER
LOW CHC POTENTIAL OF SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE, WE WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY AND GO WITH A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT ATTM. FARTHER SOUTHEAST FOR A TIME, A FEW
SPRINKLES COULD OCCUR THROUGH ABOUT MID EVENING.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN NAM/GFS MOS BLEND AND THEN
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS. THESE COULD BE TRICKY GIVEN THE LOW DEW
POINTS. HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF SOME CLOUDS, A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WIND AND A MODERATING AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
NOT AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS USED TO HELP
WITH TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AMPLIFYING DURING SUNDAY
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME RIDGING TO DEVELOP
DOWNSTREAM, RESULTING IN THE SURFACE HIGH TO BECOME ANCHORED
OFFSHORE. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WITH WAA CONTINUING
AND EVEN STRENGTHENING SOME DURING THE DAY, A WARMER DAY IS
ANTICIPATED.

THE LOCATION OF A LOW-LEVEL JET IN COMBINATION OF SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD KEEP ANY MORNING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH. MEANWHILE, A WARM FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES IN
THE VICINITY OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE THERE
WILL BE SOME CLOUDS AROUND, SOME THINNING SHOULD OCCUR FOR A TIME
BEFORE AN INCREASE DEVELOPS AGAIN TOWARD EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT
ANY ORGANIZED LIFT REMAINS AWAY FROM OUR AREA, THEREFORE WE WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, A GFS/NAM MOS BLEND WAS GENERALLY USED.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
**RECORD WARMTH MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM/EVENT
 FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY**

ANOTHER HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH NEAR 100W LONGITUDE TO START SUNDAY
NIGHT LIFTS NEWD INTO QUEBEC BY TUESDAY WITH A NEW TROUGH EVOLVING
OVER THE EASTERN USA WEDNESDAY BUT FULL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE SHORT WAVE INTERACTIONS - AMPLITUDE AND TRANSLATION SPEEDS. SO
WHILE A MID ATLANTIC COASTAL WINTER EVENT IS FORECAST, IT IS NOT
YET A LOCK DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UNCERTAINTY. A GENERAL
CYCLONIC FLOW AT MID LEVELS CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES HAVE BEEN BELOW NORMAL SINCE THE
13TH (9 CONSECUTIVE DAYS).  MODELS AGREE ON TEMPS ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY...MAYBE 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY...
BELOW NORMAL WED-FRI AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/22 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD MONDAY-TUESDAY. THEN THE 12Z/22 GFS MOS IS
APPLIED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER (WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ONWARD) THE 1523Z/22 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES IS BLENDED
50 50 WITH THE 12Z/22 GFS MEXMOS. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED
AGAINST THE 12Z/22 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH ECMWF
CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES (SEEMS LIKE A RECENT
WARM BIAS IN THOSE EC 2M TEMPS). PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE
IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/22 SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/22 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05.



THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY NIGHT...WAA WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT POSSIBLY HEAVY FOR A TIME. AN ISOLATED SVR TSTM IS NOT
IMPOSSIBLE IN DEL/NJ WITH SWI -1, TT 48, KI 32 AND 60-70KT WIND AT
850 MB ON THE ECMWF IN THE 3AM AND 6 AM TIME FRAME. 12Z NAM HAS
SIMILAR ELEVATED INSTABILITY AT 09Z MONDAY. 12Z GFS LEAST ROBUST
OF THE 3 12Z MODELS MENTIONED. GRIDS HAVE THE CHC TSTM IN SNJ AND
THE THE DELMARVA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY...WINDY AND WARM (AFTER EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS RACE NE AT 50 KTS (NEAR 60 MPH). RECORD WARMTH
EXPECTED AND SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH. BLENDED TRANSPORT
WIND SUPPORTS 40 MPH GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY 45.

MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MAYBE A LOW TOPPED SPRINKLE OR
SHOWER ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...BREEZY AND STILL WITH TEMPS
ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. (MOSTLY CIRRUS)

WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY. THE ECMWF IS PRETTY STABLE
THESE PAST TWO CYCLES AND HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FURTHEST WEST WITH
THIS OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE 12Z GFS HAS
MOVED WEST WITH THE TRACK. NO LOCK ON THE TRACK SINCE SHORT WAVE
INTERACTIONS SHOW VARIABILITY IN THE ENSEMBLES. STILL...IT LOOKS
AS IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMP IS GOING TO GOVERN WHERE ITS MOSTLY
SNOW. DAYTIME TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

ADVISE ALL WITH TRAVEL PLANS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN OUR
FORECAST AREA TO CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS. THIS COULD BECOME
A SNOW STORM FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH PLOWABLE SNOW
AND NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES....ESPECIALLY THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

THAT WOULD MEAN A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DUE TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL AND ONE
OF THE BUSIEST AIR TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR.

IF THIS FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR SUNDAY...BRIEFING PACKAGES WOULD
BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 330 PM.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AS THE PRIME TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...WPC GUIDANCE WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS AS A
NW FLOW APPEARS TO PREVAIL WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HEADING
ESEWD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 5,000 FEET FOR
MOST TERMINALS. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL BE AROUND MAINLY FROM
NEAR THE KPHL METRO ON NORTH AND WESTWARD. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SOME LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR, WITH AREAS OF CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 5,000 FEET.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

SUNDAY...VFR, WITH CEILINGS AT TIMES ABOVE 5,000 FEET. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5-8 KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTHEAST LATE.

OUTLOOK...
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 12Z MON...VERY POOR FLYING CONDS WITH
MVFR EXPECTED AND IFR PSBL IF NOT PROBABLE IN PERIODS OF SHOWERY
RAINS. RAIN COULD BE HVY AT TIMES WITH A POSSIBLE TSTM AFTER 06Z/24
SUNDAY NIGHT. E TO SE WIND COULD GUST IN THE 20 TO 305 KT RANGE.
LLWS POTENTIAL AT KACY NEAR 09Z MONDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FT
(AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS RAPIDLY DEPART NEWD BY 14Z). SW WIND
GUST 30-38 KT. CFP/SHIFT MON EVE WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE...ESPECIALLY E PA. MDT CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A COASTAL
LOW. COULD BE VFR IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH EAST OR MVFR/IFR IN RAIN/SNOW
AND WIND IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH W. AS IT STANDS WITH TODAYS MODEL
AND NCEP COLLABORATED GUIDANCE...PLAN ON PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO
SOME SNOW AND PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE LOW TO MODERATE.

THURSDAY...VFR CIGS WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDS IN
SCT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH SUNDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN SOME THROUGH
MUCH OF TONIGHT. A LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO TRACK MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH, HOWEVER THE 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS TONIGHT.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MIXING OCCURS, ALTHOUGH SURFACE
GUSTS MAY BE MARGINAL. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALSO BUILD THE
SEAS, HOWEVER THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS MAY SETUP TO OUR
NORTHEAST. SINCE THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL, WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 11Z SUNDAY FOR ALL BUT THE DELAWARE
BAY. THE CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH
STRONGEST INFLOW SE WINDS OF POTENTIAL 35-40 KT GUSTS NEAR DAWN
MONDAY. WINDS SHIFT SW IN THE WARM SECTOR AND MAY GUST 35 KT ALONG
THE COAST WHERE NEAR RECORD WARMTH PREVAILS.

BLENDED 12Z/22 NAM/GFS TRANSPORT WIND SUPPORTS GALE GUSTS 06Z MONDAY-
02Z TUESDAY. FOR NOW THE WATCH ENDS AT 22Z MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY....A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SCA CONDS AS SEAS
AND WIND EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...PLAN ON SCA CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING AS A COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPS. SMALL POTENTIAL FOR A GALE LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG  402
NEAR TERM...GORSE 402
SHORT TERM...GORSE 402
LONG TERM...DRAG 402
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 402
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 402
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 222102
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
402 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EDGING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...DRAWING A STRONG WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH
OUR AREA. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR JAMES BAY MONDAY EVENING AS IT SENDS
A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD STATES. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATER TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY AND MOVES EAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON THANKSGIVING.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HEADS SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE FLOW BACKS SOME MORE IN COMBINATION WITH A
SURFACE HIGH SLIDING TO OUR SOUTHEAST, A LARGE AREA OF WAA WILL
OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS IS MORE NOTED TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST
CLOSER TO THE CORE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE WARMING CHIPS AWAY AT THE REMAINING COOLER
AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE. THIS PROCESS IS LEADING TO AN AREA OF
CLOUDINESS THAT CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

THE WAA AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE HAS
BEEN GENERATING AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM CENTRAL NEW
YORK/PENNSYLVANIA ON NORTHEASTWARD. SOME OF THIS WILL MOVE ACROSS
OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES THROUGH THIS EVENING, HOWEVER WITH THE MAIN
LOW-LEVEL JET PASSING TO OUR NORTH ALONG WITH THE BETTER LIFT THERE,
ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AND SPOTTY. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER DRY LAYER IN THE LOWEST LEVELS
AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK FORCING RESULTS VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
THERE IS LITTLE MODEL SUPPORT TO BRING IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION,
AND THE WPC QPF IS PRETTY MUCH DRY. SINCE THIS LOOKS LIKE A RATHER
LOW CHC POTENTIAL OF SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE, WE WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY AND GO WITH A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT ATTM. FARTHER SOUTHEAST FOR A TIME, A FEW
SPRINKLES COULD OCCUR THROUGH ABOUT MID EVENING.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN NAM/GFS MOS BLEND AND THEN
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS. THESE COULD BE TRICKY GIVEN THE LOW DEW
POINTS. HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF SOME CLOUDS, A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WIND AND A MODERATING AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
NOT AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS USED TO HELP
WITH TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AMPLIFYING DURING SUNDAY
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME RIDGING TO DEVELOP
DOWNSTREAM, RESULTING IN THE SURFACE HIGH TO BECOME ANCHORED
OFFSHORE. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WITH WAA CONTINUING
AND EVEN STRENGTHENING SOME DURING THE DAY, A WARMER DAY IS
ANTICIPATED.

THE LOCATION OF A LOW-LEVEL JET IN COMBINATION OF SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD KEEP ANY MORNING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH. MEANWHILE, A WARM FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES IN
THE VICINITY OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE THERE
WILL BE SOME CLOUDS AROUND, SOME THINNING SHOULD OCCUR FOR A TIME
BEFORE AN INCREASE DEVELOPS AGAIN TOWARD EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT
ANY ORGANIZED LIFT REMAINS AWAY FROM OUR AREA, THEREFORE WE WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, A GFS/NAM MOS BLEND WAS GENERALLY USED.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
**RECORD WARMTH MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM/EVENT
 FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY**

ANOTHER HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH NEAR 100W LONGITUDE TO START SUNDAY
NIGHT LIFTS NEWD INTO QUEBEC BY TUESDAY WITH A NEW TROUGH EVOLVING
OVER THE EASTERN USA WEDNESDAY BUT FULL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE SHORT WAVE INTERACTIONS - AMPLITUDE AND TRANSLATION SPEEDS. SO
WHILE A MID ATLANTIC COASTAL WINTER EVENT IS FORECAST, IT IS NOT
YET A LOCK DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UNCERTAINTY. A GENERAL
CYCLONIC FLOW AT MID LEVELS CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES HAVE BEEN BELOW NORMAL SINCE THE
13TH (9 CONSECUTIVE DAYS).  MODELS AGREE ON TEMPS ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY...MAYBE 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY...
BELOW NORMAL WED-FRI AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/22 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD MONDAY-TUESDAY. THEN THE 12Z/22 GFS MOS IS
APPLIED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER (WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ONWARD) THE 1523Z/22 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES IS BLENDED
50 50 WITH THE 12Z/22 GFS MEXMOS. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED
AGAINST THE 12Z/22 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH ECMWF
CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES (SEEMS LIKE A RECENT
WARM BIAS IN THOSE EC 2M TEMPS). PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE
IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/22 SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/22 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05.



THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY NIGHT...WAA WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT POSSIBLY HEAVY FOR A TIME. AN ISOLATED SVR TSTM IS NOT
IMPOSSIBLE IN DEL/NJ WITH SWI -1, TT 48, KI 32 AND 60-70KT WIND AT
850 MB ON THE ECMWF IN THE 3AM AND 6 AM TIME FRAME. 12Z NAM HAS
SIMILAR ELEVATED INSTABILITY AT 09Z MONDAY. 12Z GFS LEAST ROBUST
OF THE 3 12Z MODELS MENTIONED. GRIDS HAVE THE CHC TSTM IN SNJ AND
THE THE DELMARVA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY...WINDY AND WARM (AFTER EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS RACE NE AT 50 KTS (NEAR 60 MPH). RECORD WARMTH
EXPECTED AND SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH. BLENDED TRANSPORT
WIND SUPPORTS 40 MPH GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY 45.

MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MAYBE A LOW TOPPED SPRINKLE OR
SHOWER ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...BREEZY AND STILL WITH TEMPS
ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. (MOSTLY CIRRUS)

WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY. THE ECMWF IS PRETTY STABLE
THESE PAST TWO CYCLES AND HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FURTHEST WEST WITH
THIS OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE 12Z GFS HAS
MOVED WEST WITH THE TRACK. NO LOCK ON THE TRACK SINCE SHORT WAVE
INTERACTIONS SHOW VARIABILITY IN THE ENSEMBLES. STILL...IT LOOKS
AS IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMP IS GOING TO GOVERN WHERE ITS MOSTLY
SNOW. DAYTIME TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

ADVISE ALL WITH TRAVEL PLANS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN OUR
FORECAST AREA TO CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS. THIS COULD BECOME
A SNOW STORM FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH PLOWABLE SNOW
AND NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES....ESPECIALLY THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

THAT WOULD MEAN A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DUE TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL AND ONE
OF THE BUSIEST AIR TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR.

IF THIS FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR SUNDAY...BRIEFING PACKAGES WOULD
BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 330 PM.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AS THE PRIME TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...WPC GUIDANCE WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS AS A
NW FLOW APPEARS TO PREVAIL WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HEADING
ESEWD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 5,000 FEET FOR
MOST TERMINALS. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL BE AROUND MAINLY FROM
NEAR THE KPHL METRO ON NORTH AND WESTWARD. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SOME LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR, WITH AREAS OF CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 5,000 FEET.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

SUNDAY...VFR, WITH CEILINGS AT TIMES ABOVE 5,000 FEET. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5-8 KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTHEAST LATE.

OUTLOOK...
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 12Z MON...VERY POOR FLYING CONDS WITH
MVFR EXPECTED AND IFR PSBL IF NOT PROBABLE IN PERIODS OF SHOWERY
RAINS. RAIN COULD BE HVY AT TIMES WITH A POSSIBLE TSTM AFTER 06Z/24
SUNDAY NIGHT. E TO SE WIND COULD GUST IN THE 20 TO 305 KT RANGE.
LLWS POTENTIAL AT KACY NEAR 09Z MONDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FT
(AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS RAPIDLY DEPART NEWD BY 14Z). SW WIND
GUST 30-38 KT. CFP/SHIFT MON EVE WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE...ESPECIALLY E PA. MDT CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A COASTAL
LOW. COULD BE VFR IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH EAST OR MVFR/IFR IN RAIN/SNOW
AND WIND IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH W. AS IT STANDS WITH TODAYS MODEL
AND NCEP COLLABORATED GUIDANCE...PLAN ON PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO
SOME SNOW AND PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE LOW TO MODERATE.

THURSDAY...VFR CIGS WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDS IN
SCT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH SUNDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN SOME THROUGH
MUCH OF TONIGHT. A LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO TRACK MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH, HOWEVER THE 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS TONIGHT.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MIXING OCCURS, ALTHOUGH SURFACE
GUSTS MAY BE MARGINAL. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALSO BUILD THE
SEAS, HOWEVER THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS MAY SETUP TO OUR
NORTHEAST. SINCE THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL, WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 11Z SUNDAY FOR ALL BUT THE DELAWARE
BAY. THE CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH
STRONGEST INFLOW SE WINDS OF POTENTIAL 35-40 KT GUSTS NEAR DAWN
MONDAY. WINDS SHIFT SW IN THE WARM SECTOR AND MAY GUST 35 KT ALONG
THE COAST WHERE NEAR RECORD WARMTH PREVAILS.

BLENDED 12Z/22 NAM/GFS TRANSPORT WIND SUPPORTS GALE GUSTS 06Z MONDAY-
02Z TUESDAY. FOR NOW THE WATCH ENDS AT 22Z MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY....A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SCA CONDS AS SEAS
AND WIND EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...PLAN ON SCA CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING AS A COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPS. SMALL POTENTIAL FOR A GALE LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG  402
NEAR TERM...GORSE 402
SHORT TERM...GORSE 402
LONG TERM...DRAG 402
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 402
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 402
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 222102
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
402 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EDGING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...DRAWING A STRONG WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH
OUR AREA. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR JAMES BAY MONDAY EVENING AS IT SENDS
A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD STATES. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATER TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY AND MOVES EAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON THANKSGIVING.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HEADS SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE FLOW BACKS SOME MORE IN COMBINATION WITH A
SURFACE HIGH SLIDING TO OUR SOUTHEAST, A LARGE AREA OF WAA WILL
OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS IS MORE NOTED TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST
CLOSER TO THE CORE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE WARMING CHIPS AWAY AT THE REMAINING COOLER
AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE. THIS PROCESS IS LEADING TO AN AREA OF
CLOUDINESS THAT CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

THE WAA AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE HAS
BEEN GENERATING AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM CENTRAL NEW
YORK/PENNSYLVANIA ON NORTHEASTWARD. SOME OF THIS WILL MOVE ACROSS
OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES THROUGH THIS EVENING, HOWEVER WITH THE MAIN
LOW-LEVEL JET PASSING TO OUR NORTH ALONG WITH THE BETTER LIFT THERE,
ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AND SPOTTY. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER DRY LAYER IN THE LOWEST LEVELS
AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK FORCING RESULTS VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
THERE IS LITTLE MODEL SUPPORT TO BRING IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION,
AND THE WPC QPF IS PRETTY MUCH DRY. SINCE THIS LOOKS LIKE A RATHER
LOW CHC POTENTIAL OF SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE, WE WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY AND GO WITH A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT ATTM. FARTHER SOUTHEAST FOR A TIME, A FEW
SPRINKLES COULD OCCUR THROUGH ABOUT MID EVENING.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN NAM/GFS MOS BLEND AND THEN
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS. THESE COULD BE TRICKY GIVEN THE LOW DEW
POINTS. HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF SOME CLOUDS, A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WIND AND A MODERATING AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
NOT AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS USED TO HELP
WITH TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AMPLIFYING DURING SUNDAY
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME RIDGING TO DEVELOP
DOWNSTREAM, RESULTING IN THE SURFACE HIGH TO BECOME ANCHORED
OFFSHORE. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WITH WAA CONTINUING
AND EVEN STRENGTHENING SOME DURING THE DAY, A WARMER DAY IS
ANTICIPATED.

THE LOCATION OF A LOW-LEVEL JET IN COMBINATION OF SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD KEEP ANY MORNING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH. MEANWHILE, A WARM FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES IN
THE VICINITY OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE THERE
WILL BE SOME CLOUDS AROUND, SOME THINNING SHOULD OCCUR FOR A TIME
BEFORE AN INCREASE DEVELOPS AGAIN TOWARD EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT
ANY ORGANIZED LIFT REMAINS AWAY FROM OUR AREA, THEREFORE WE WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, A GFS/NAM MOS BLEND WAS GENERALLY USED.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
**RECORD WARMTH MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM/EVENT
 FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY**

ANOTHER HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH NEAR 100W LONGITUDE TO START SUNDAY
NIGHT LIFTS NEWD INTO QUEBEC BY TUESDAY WITH A NEW TROUGH EVOLVING
OVER THE EASTERN USA WEDNESDAY BUT FULL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE SHORT WAVE INTERACTIONS - AMPLITUDE AND TRANSLATION SPEEDS. SO
WHILE A MID ATLANTIC COASTAL WINTER EVENT IS FORECAST, IT IS NOT
YET A LOCK DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UNCERTAINTY. A GENERAL
CYCLONIC FLOW AT MID LEVELS CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES HAVE BEEN BELOW NORMAL SINCE THE
13TH (9 CONSECUTIVE DAYS).  MODELS AGREE ON TEMPS ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY...MAYBE 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY...
BELOW NORMAL WED-FRI AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/22 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD MONDAY-TUESDAY. THEN THE 12Z/22 GFS MOS IS
APPLIED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER (WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ONWARD) THE 1523Z/22 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES IS BLENDED
50 50 WITH THE 12Z/22 GFS MEXMOS. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED
AGAINST THE 12Z/22 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH ECMWF
CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES (SEEMS LIKE A RECENT
WARM BIAS IN THOSE EC 2M TEMPS). PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE
IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/22 SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/22 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05.



THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY NIGHT...WAA WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT POSSIBLY HEAVY FOR A TIME. AN ISOLATED SVR TSTM IS NOT
IMPOSSIBLE IN DEL/NJ WITH SWI -1, TT 48, KI 32 AND 60-70KT WIND AT
850 MB ON THE ECMWF IN THE 3AM AND 6 AM TIME FRAME. 12Z NAM HAS
SIMILAR ELEVATED INSTABILITY AT 09Z MONDAY. 12Z GFS LEAST ROBUST
OF THE 3 12Z MODELS MENTIONED. GRIDS HAVE THE CHC TSTM IN SNJ AND
THE THE DELMARVA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY...WINDY AND WARM (AFTER EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS RACE NE AT 50 KTS (NEAR 60 MPH). RECORD WARMTH
EXPECTED AND SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH. BLENDED TRANSPORT
WIND SUPPORTS 40 MPH GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY 45.

MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MAYBE A LOW TOPPED SPRINKLE OR
SHOWER ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...BREEZY AND STILL WITH TEMPS
ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. (MOSTLY CIRRUS)

WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY. THE ECMWF IS PRETTY STABLE
THESE PAST TWO CYCLES AND HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FURTHEST WEST WITH
THIS OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE 12Z GFS HAS
MOVED WEST WITH THE TRACK. NO LOCK ON THE TRACK SINCE SHORT WAVE
INTERACTIONS SHOW VARIABILITY IN THE ENSEMBLES. STILL...IT LOOKS
AS IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMP IS GOING TO GOVERN WHERE ITS MOSTLY
SNOW. DAYTIME TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

ADVISE ALL WITH TRAVEL PLANS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN OUR
FORECAST AREA TO CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS. THIS COULD BECOME
A SNOW STORM FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH PLOWABLE SNOW
AND NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES....ESPECIALLY THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

THAT WOULD MEAN A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DUE TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL AND ONE
OF THE BUSIEST AIR TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR.

IF THIS FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR SUNDAY...BRIEFING PACKAGES WOULD
BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 330 PM.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AS THE PRIME TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...WPC GUIDANCE WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS AS A
NW FLOW APPEARS TO PREVAIL WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HEADING
ESEWD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 5,000 FEET FOR
MOST TERMINALS. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL BE AROUND MAINLY FROM
NEAR THE KPHL METRO ON NORTH AND WESTWARD. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SOME LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR, WITH AREAS OF CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 5,000 FEET.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

SUNDAY...VFR, WITH CEILINGS AT TIMES ABOVE 5,000 FEET. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5-8 KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTHEAST LATE.

OUTLOOK...
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 12Z MON...VERY POOR FLYING CONDS WITH
MVFR EXPECTED AND IFR PSBL IF NOT PROBABLE IN PERIODS OF SHOWERY
RAINS. RAIN COULD BE HVY AT TIMES WITH A POSSIBLE TSTM AFTER 06Z/24
SUNDAY NIGHT. E TO SE WIND COULD GUST IN THE 20 TO 305 KT RANGE.
LLWS POTENTIAL AT KACY NEAR 09Z MONDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FT
(AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS RAPIDLY DEPART NEWD BY 14Z). SW WIND
GUST 30-38 KT. CFP/SHIFT MON EVE WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE...ESPECIALLY E PA. MDT CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A COASTAL
LOW. COULD BE VFR IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH EAST OR MVFR/IFR IN RAIN/SNOW
AND WIND IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH W. AS IT STANDS WITH TODAYS MODEL
AND NCEP COLLABORATED GUIDANCE...PLAN ON PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO
SOME SNOW AND PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE LOW TO MODERATE.

THURSDAY...VFR CIGS WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDS IN
SCT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH SUNDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN SOME THROUGH
MUCH OF TONIGHT. A LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO TRACK MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH, HOWEVER THE 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS TONIGHT.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MIXING OCCURS, ALTHOUGH SURFACE
GUSTS MAY BE MARGINAL. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALSO BUILD THE
SEAS, HOWEVER THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS MAY SETUP TO OUR
NORTHEAST. SINCE THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL, WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 11Z SUNDAY FOR ALL BUT THE DELAWARE
BAY. THE CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH
STRONGEST INFLOW SE WINDS OF POTENTIAL 35-40 KT GUSTS NEAR DAWN
MONDAY. WINDS SHIFT SW IN THE WARM SECTOR AND MAY GUST 35 KT ALONG
THE COAST WHERE NEAR RECORD WARMTH PREVAILS.

BLENDED 12Z/22 NAM/GFS TRANSPORT WIND SUPPORTS GALE GUSTS 06Z MONDAY-
02Z TUESDAY. FOR NOW THE WATCH ENDS AT 22Z MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY....A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SCA CONDS AS SEAS
AND WIND EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...PLAN ON SCA CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING AS A COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPS. SMALL POTENTIAL FOR A GALE LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG  402
NEAR TERM...GORSE 402
SHORT TERM...GORSE 402
LONG TERM...DRAG 402
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 402
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 402
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 222102
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
402 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EDGING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...DRAWING A STRONG WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH
OUR AREA. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR JAMES BAY MONDAY EVENING AS IT SENDS
A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD STATES. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATER TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY AND MOVES EAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON THANKSGIVING.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HEADS SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE FLOW BACKS SOME MORE IN COMBINATION WITH A
SURFACE HIGH SLIDING TO OUR SOUTHEAST, A LARGE AREA OF WAA WILL
OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS IS MORE NOTED TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST
CLOSER TO THE CORE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE WARMING CHIPS AWAY AT THE REMAINING COOLER
AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE. THIS PROCESS IS LEADING TO AN AREA OF
CLOUDINESS THAT CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

THE WAA AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE HAS
BEEN GENERATING AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM CENTRAL NEW
YORK/PENNSYLVANIA ON NORTHEASTWARD. SOME OF THIS WILL MOVE ACROSS
OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES THROUGH THIS EVENING, HOWEVER WITH THE MAIN
LOW-LEVEL JET PASSING TO OUR NORTH ALONG WITH THE BETTER LIFT THERE,
ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AND SPOTTY. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER DRY LAYER IN THE LOWEST LEVELS
AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK FORCING RESULTS VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
THERE IS LITTLE MODEL SUPPORT TO BRING IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION,
AND THE WPC QPF IS PRETTY MUCH DRY. SINCE THIS LOOKS LIKE A RATHER
LOW CHC POTENTIAL OF SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE, WE WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY AND GO WITH A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT ATTM. FARTHER SOUTHEAST FOR A TIME, A FEW
SPRINKLES COULD OCCUR THROUGH ABOUT MID EVENING.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN NAM/GFS MOS BLEND AND THEN
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS. THESE COULD BE TRICKY GIVEN THE LOW DEW
POINTS. HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF SOME CLOUDS, A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WIND AND A MODERATING AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
NOT AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS USED TO HELP
WITH TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AMPLIFYING DURING SUNDAY
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME RIDGING TO DEVELOP
DOWNSTREAM, RESULTING IN THE SURFACE HIGH TO BECOME ANCHORED
OFFSHORE. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WITH WAA CONTINUING
AND EVEN STRENGTHENING SOME DURING THE DAY, A WARMER DAY IS
ANTICIPATED.

THE LOCATION OF A LOW-LEVEL JET IN COMBINATION OF SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD KEEP ANY MORNING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH. MEANWHILE, A WARM FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES IN
THE VICINITY OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE THERE
WILL BE SOME CLOUDS AROUND, SOME THINNING SHOULD OCCUR FOR A TIME
BEFORE AN INCREASE DEVELOPS AGAIN TOWARD EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT
ANY ORGANIZED LIFT REMAINS AWAY FROM OUR AREA, THEREFORE WE WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, A GFS/NAM MOS BLEND WAS GENERALLY USED.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
**RECORD WARMTH MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM/EVENT
 FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY**

ANOTHER HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH NEAR 100W LONGITUDE TO START SUNDAY
NIGHT LIFTS NEWD INTO QUEBEC BY TUESDAY WITH A NEW TROUGH EVOLVING
OVER THE EASTERN USA WEDNESDAY BUT FULL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE SHORT WAVE INTERACTIONS - AMPLITUDE AND TRANSLATION SPEEDS. SO
WHILE A MID ATLANTIC COASTAL WINTER EVENT IS FORECAST, IT IS NOT
YET A LOCK DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UNCERTAINTY. A GENERAL
CYCLONIC FLOW AT MID LEVELS CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES HAVE BEEN BELOW NORMAL SINCE THE
13TH (9 CONSECUTIVE DAYS).  MODELS AGREE ON TEMPS ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY...MAYBE 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY...
BELOW NORMAL WED-FRI AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/22 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD MONDAY-TUESDAY. THEN THE 12Z/22 GFS MOS IS
APPLIED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER (WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ONWARD) THE 1523Z/22 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES IS BLENDED
50 50 WITH THE 12Z/22 GFS MEXMOS. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED
AGAINST THE 12Z/22 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH ECMWF
CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES (SEEMS LIKE A RECENT
WARM BIAS IN THOSE EC 2M TEMPS). PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE
IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/22 SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/22 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05.



THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY NIGHT...WAA WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT POSSIBLY HEAVY FOR A TIME. AN ISOLATED SVR TSTM IS NOT
IMPOSSIBLE IN DEL/NJ WITH SWI -1, TT 48, KI 32 AND 60-70KT WIND AT
850 MB ON THE ECMWF IN THE 3AM AND 6 AM TIME FRAME. 12Z NAM HAS
SIMILAR ELEVATED INSTABILITY AT 09Z MONDAY. 12Z GFS LEAST ROBUST
OF THE 3 12Z MODELS MENTIONED. GRIDS HAVE THE CHC TSTM IN SNJ AND
THE THE DELMARVA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY...WINDY AND WARM (AFTER EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS RACE NE AT 50 KTS (NEAR 60 MPH). RECORD WARMTH
EXPECTED AND SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH. BLENDED TRANSPORT
WIND SUPPORTS 40 MPH GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY 45.

MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MAYBE A LOW TOPPED SPRINKLE OR
SHOWER ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...BREEZY AND STILL WITH TEMPS
ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. (MOSTLY CIRRUS)

WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY. THE ECMWF IS PRETTY STABLE
THESE PAST TWO CYCLES AND HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FURTHEST WEST WITH
THIS OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE 12Z GFS HAS
MOVED WEST WITH THE TRACK. NO LOCK ON THE TRACK SINCE SHORT WAVE
INTERACTIONS SHOW VARIABILITY IN THE ENSEMBLES. STILL...IT LOOKS
AS IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMP IS GOING TO GOVERN WHERE ITS MOSTLY
SNOW. DAYTIME TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

ADVISE ALL WITH TRAVEL PLANS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN OUR
FORECAST AREA TO CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS. THIS COULD BECOME
A SNOW STORM FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH PLOWABLE SNOW
AND NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES....ESPECIALLY THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

THAT WOULD MEAN A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DUE TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL AND ONE
OF THE BUSIEST AIR TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR.

IF THIS FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR SUNDAY...BRIEFING PACKAGES WOULD
BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 330 PM.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AS THE PRIME TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...WPC GUIDANCE WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS AS A
NW FLOW APPEARS TO PREVAIL WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HEADING
ESEWD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 5,000 FEET FOR
MOST TERMINALS. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL BE AROUND MAINLY FROM
NEAR THE KPHL METRO ON NORTH AND WESTWARD. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SOME LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR, WITH AREAS OF CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 5,000 FEET.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

SUNDAY...VFR, WITH CEILINGS AT TIMES ABOVE 5,000 FEET. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5-8 KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTHEAST LATE.

OUTLOOK...
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 12Z MON...VERY POOR FLYING CONDS WITH
MVFR EXPECTED AND IFR PSBL IF NOT PROBABLE IN PERIODS OF SHOWERY
RAINS. RAIN COULD BE HVY AT TIMES WITH A POSSIBLE TSTM AFTER 06Z/24
SUNDAY NIGHT. E TO SE WIND COULD GUST IN THE 20 TO 305 KT RANGE.
LLWS POTENTIAL AT KACY NEAR 09Z MONDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FT
(AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS RAPIDLY DEPART NEWD BY 14Z). SW WIND
GUST 30-38 KT. CFP/SHIFT MON EVE WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE...ESPECIALLY E PA. MDT CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A COASTAL
LOW. COULD BE VFR IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH EAST OR MVFR/IFR IN RAIN/SNOW
AND WIND IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH W. AS IT STANDS WITH TODAYS MODEL
AND NCEP COLLABORATED GUIDANCE...PLAN ON PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO
SOME SNOW AND PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE LOW TO MODERATE.

THURSDAY...VFR CIGS WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDS IN
SCT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH SUNDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN SOME THROUGH
MUCH OF TONIGHT. A LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO TRACK MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH, HOWEVER THE 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS TONIGHT.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MIXING OCCURS, ALTHOUGH SURFACE
GUSTS MAY BE MARGINAL. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALSO BUILD THE
SEAS, HOWEVER THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS MAY SETUP TO OUR
NORTHEAST. SINCE THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL, WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 11Z SUNDAY FOR ALL BUT THE DELAWARE
BAY. THE CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH
STRONGEST INFLOW SE WINDS OF POTENTIAL 35-40 KT GUSTS NEAR DAWN
MONDAY. WINDS SHIFT SW IN THE WARM SECTOR AND MAY GUST 35 KT ALONG
THE COAST WHERE NEAR RECORD WARMTH PREVAILS.

BLENDED 12Z/22 NAM/GFS TRANSPORT WIND SUPPORTS GALE GUSTS 06Z MONDAY-
02Z TUESDAY. FOR NOW THE WATCH ENDS AT 22Z MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY....A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SCA CONDS AS SEAS
AND WIND EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...PLAN ON SCA CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING AS A COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPS. SMALL POTENTIAL FOR A GALE LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG  402
NEAR TERM...GORSE 402
SHORT TERM...GORSE 402
LONG TERM...DRAG 402
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 402
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 402
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 222049
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
349 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND
MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY INDICATES A POTENT TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS
TX...WITH A BROAD RIDGE DOWNSTREAM COVERING THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A ~1032MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
THE NC OUTER BANKS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GENERALLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A FEW THIN BANDS OF CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD.
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE
MODERATED INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S WITH A LIGHT SSW WIND ON THE
NW PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST. AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE DOMINATED
BY THE CURRENT COOL/DRY AIRMASS. HENCE TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP
QUICKLY INTO THE 30S THIS EVENING UNDER A CLEAR SKY...EVENTUALLY
REACHING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD
THICKEN LATE...AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. HENCE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME STEADY OR EVEN
SLOWLY RISE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...THICKEN...AND LOWER FROM THE SW SUN
AS GULF COAST MOISTURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFT NE THROUGH
THE SE CONUS...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT SOME RAIN
SHOULD ARRIVE IN SW PORTIONS LATE IN THE DAY...WITH 60% POPS SW
LATE IN THE DAY...BORDERED BY A 30-50% POP FROM THE NW PIEDMONT
THROUGH NE NC. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW TO LOW 60S
SE.

THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WILL CROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION PRIMARILY FROM SUN EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE (+3 ST DEV PW 03-06Z MON PER
22/15Z SREF) WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DUE TO A STRONG NEARLY 70KT
LLJ. POPS FOR RAIN DURING THE 12HR PERIOD SUN NIGHT HAVE BEEN
RAISED TO 100%. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
COASTAL NE NC. HOWEVER...0-3KM LAPSE RATES SEEM TO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR THROUGHOUT THE 22/12Z SUITE OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...OFFSETTING
A STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELD. GIVEN THIS...THE SPC SLIGHT RISK HAS
BEEN SHUNTED S OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND 6HR PRESSURE FALLS OF -7MB TO -10MB PER 22/12Z GFS
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF
THE COAST. GUSTS FROM THE SSE DIRECTION OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. LOWS SUN NIGHT SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 50S...WITH
READINGS LIKELY TO RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG FORCING AND
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A ~6HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SUN NIGHT...WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS
AVERAGING 1.00-1.25IN.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION BY 12Z MON...WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE FAR WRN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUE. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING...WITH A GUSTY SW WIND
DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S (SEE THE
THE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS). 22/12Z NAM LINGERS MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO 20-30% DUE TO THE APPROACH
OF THE COLD FRONT AND SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE INLAND...WITH CLOUDS LINGERING NEAR THE COAST
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TUE. HIGHS TUE SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER MORNING LOWS FROM THE
MID 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST BY 12Z TUE. BNDRY THEN
STALLS OVR THE GULF STREAM TUE & WED IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF
S/W`S PROGGED TO DVLP THEN MOVE NE ALONG IT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRS
(OF PACIFIC ORIGIN) OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION BUILDS S&E THRU
THE MID WEEK PRD. UPR LVL LOW AND TRAILING CDFRNT PROGGED TO DIVE
SE FROM THE GT LAKES THU WITH HIGH PRS BUILDING INTO THE ARA FRI.

GRIDS WILL INDICATE SLGHT CHC SHWRS WITH FROPA MONDAY NIGHT. COOLER
AS CAA SET IN BEHIND THE FRNT. LOWS M-U40S NWRN HALF 50-55 SERN
HALF. TUE THRU WED FCST DEPENDS ON HOW FAR N&W MSTR GETS FROM THE
DVLPNG LOW OFF THE SERN COAST. GFS HAS A TRACK A BIT FRTHR EAST
KEEPING THE PCPN CONFINED TO SERN CSTL AREAS BY LATE TUE...AND GNRLY
E OF I95 WED. ECMWF SLOWER WITH A DRY TUE...PCPN MOVG ACROSS SERN
CSTL AREAS TUE NIGHT THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA WED BEFORE
PULLING OUT TO SEAS WED NIGHT.

TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF WITH THE COASTAL LOW TUE & WED...BUT THNK
IT IS OVERDONE WRT THE DEEPENING OF THE LOW OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST
TURKEY DAY. WILL INDICATE 20-30 POP ACROSS SERN CSTL AREAS TUE. DRY
ELSEWHERE. HIGHS M50S-L60S. A GENERAL RAIN OVRSPRDS THE FA SE-NW
TUES NIGHT AND WED...THEN ENDS WED EVE AS THE LOW PULLS FRTHR
OFFSHORE. PCPN ALL LIQUID WITH THIS EVENT. LOWS TUE NIGHT M30S-M40S.
HIGHS WED M40S-L50S. PCPN ENDS WED EVE BEFORE THE COLD AIR ARRIVES.
LOWS AFTER THE RAIN ENDS FALL INTO THE U20S-L30S W OF THE
BAY...M-U30S SERN CSTL AREAS.

CLIPPER TYPE S/W DIVES SE THU. ENUF MSTR SEEN WITH THIS FTR FOR AT
LEAST SLGHT CHC DIURNAL SHWRS (PSBLY MIXED WITH IP???) THANKSGIVING
DAY. HIGHS 45-50. DRYING OUT THURS NIGHT AND FRI. LOWS U20S-M30S
XCPT 35-40 SERN CSTL AREAS. HIGHS FRI M-U40S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE VA/NC BOARDER WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST DURING THE EVENING. THIS WILL CONTINUE A SOUTHERLY WIND
DIRECTION WHILE INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.

A MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL HELP FORM A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE SE US AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVES NE OUT OF THE GOMEX
ON SUN. THIS WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AS A WARM FRONT
SURGES THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS(POSSIBLY
LOWER) DUE TO LOWERED CEILINGS AND REDUCED VIS DUE TO RAIN.
ALSO...WIND GUST TO 35KT MAY BE POSSIBLE MON MORNING AS THE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE OVER NE NC/SE VA.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA OVR SRN CSTL WTRS HAS EXPIRED AS SEAS DROPPED BLO 5 FT. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNG...EXPECT 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS WITH
LGT WINDS AS STRONG SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVR THE WTRS. THE HI
SLIDES FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS AFTN...WITH WINDS BCMG SLY AT 10-15 KT.
NEXT LO PRES SYSTM PUSHES NE TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
SUN/SUN NGT...WITH S/SE FLOW RAMPING UP OVR THE LOCAL WTRS AS THE
PRES GRADIENT INCREASES. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUN NGT INTO MON
IN RESPONSE TO THIS...AND MAY CONTINUE UNTIL MON NGT WHEN THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRNT CROSSES THE AREA. GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE
OVR THE OCEAN AS WELL. WITH THIS BEING 4TH PERIOD WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW. WAVES OVR THE BAY WILL REACH 3-4 FT WITH SEAS
OVR CSTL WTRS UP TO 6-8 FT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 222049
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
349 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND
MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY INDICATES A POTENT TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS
TX...WITH A BROAD RIDGE DOWNSTREAM COVERING THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A ~1032MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
THE NC OUTER BANKS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GENERALLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A FEW THIN BANDS OF CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD.
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE
MODERATED INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S WITH A LIGHT SSW WIND ON THE
NW PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST. AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE DOMINATED
BY THE CURRENT COOL/DRY AIRMASS. HENCE TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP
QUICKLY INTO THE 30S THIS EVENING UNDER A CLEAR SKY...EVENTUALLY
REACHING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD
THICKEN LATE...AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. HENCE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME STEADY OR EVEN
SLOWLY RISE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...THICKEN...AND LOWER FROM THE SW SUN
AS GULF COAST MOISTURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFT NE THROUGH
THE SE CONUS...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT SOME RAIN
SHOULD ARRIVE IN SW PORTIONS LATE IN THE DAY...WITH 60% POPS SW
LATE IN THE DAY...BORDERED BY A 30-50% POP FROM THE NW PIEDMONT
THROUGH NE NC. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW TO LOW 60S
SE.

THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WILL CROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION PRIMARILY FROM SUN EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE (+3 ST DEV PW 03-06Z MON PER
22/15Z SREF) WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DUE TO A STRONG NEARLY 70KT
LLJ. POPS FOR RAIN DURING THE 12HR PERIOD SUN NIGHT HAVE BEEN
RAISED TO 100%. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
COASTAL NE NC. HOWEVER...0-3KM LAPSE RATES SEEM TO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR THROUGHOUT THE 22/12Z SUITE OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...OFFSETTING
A STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELD. GIVEN THIS...THE SPC SLIGHT RISK HAS
BEEN SHUNTED S OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND 6HR PRESSURE FALLS OF -7MB TO -10MB PER 22/12Z GFS
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF
THE COAST. GUSTS FROM THE SSE DIRECTION OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. LOWS SUN NIGHT SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 50S...WITH
READINGS LIKELY TO RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG FORCING AND
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A ~6HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SUN NIGHT...WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS
AVERAGING 1.00-1.25IN.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION BY 12Z MON...WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE FAR WRN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUE. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING...WITH A GUSTY SW WIND
DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S (SEE THE
THE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS). 22/12Z NAM LINGERS MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO 20-30% DUE TO THE APPROACH
OF THE COLD FRONT AND SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE INLAND...WITH CLOUDS LINGERING NEAR THE COAST
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TUE. HIGHS TUE SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER MORNING LOWS FROM THE
MID 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST BY 12Z TUE. BNDRY THEN
STALLS OVR THE GULF STREAM TUE & WED IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF
S/W`S PROGGED TO DVLP THEN MOVE NE ALONG IT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRS
(OF PACIFIC ORIGIN) OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION BUILDS S&E THRU
THE MID WEEK PRD. UPR LVL LOW AND TRAILING CDFRNT PROGGED TO DIVE
SE FROM THE GT LAKES THU WITH HIGH PRS BUILDING INTO THE ARA FRI.

GRIDS WILL INDICATE SLGHT CHC SHWRS WITH FROPA MONDAY NIGHT. COOLER
AS CAA SET IN BEHIND THE FRNT. LOWS M-U40S NWRN HALF 50-55 SERN
HALF. TUE THRU WED FCST DEPENDS ON HOW FAR N&W MSTR GETS FROM THE
DVLPNG LOW OFF THE SERN COAST. GFS HAS A TRACK A BIT FRTHR EAST
KEEPING THE PCPN CONFINED TO SERN CSTL AREAS BY LATE TUE...AND GNRLY
E OF I95 WED. ECMWF SLOWER WITH A DRY TUE...PCPN MOVG ACROSS SERN
CSTL AREAS TUE NIGHT THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA WED BEFORE
PULLING OUT TO SEAS WED NIGHT.

TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF WITH THE COASTAL LOW TUE & WED...BUT THNK
IT IS OVERDONE WRT THE DEEPENING OF THE LOW OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST
TURKEY DAY. WILL INDICATE 20-30 POP ACROSS SERN CSTL AREAS TUE. DRY
ELSEWHERE. HIGHS M50S-L60S. A GENERAL RAIN OVRSPRDS THE FA SE-NW
TUES NIGHT AND WED...THEN ENDS WED EVE AS THE LOW PULLS FRTHR
OFFSHORE. PCPN ALL LIQUID WITH THIS EVENT. LOWS TUE NIGHT M30S-M40S.
HIGHS WED M40S-L50S. PCPN ENDS WED EVE BEFORE THE COLD AIR ARRIVES.
LOWS AFTER THE RAIN ENDS FALL INTO THE U20S-L30S W OF THE
BAY...M-U30S SERN CSTL AREAS.

CLIPPER TYPE S/W DIVES SE THU. ENUF MSTR SEEN WITH THIS FTR FOR AT
LEAST SLGHT CHC DIURNAL SHWRS (PSBLY MIXED WITH IP???) THANKSGIVING
DAY. HIGHS 45-50. DRYING OUT THURS NIGHT AND FRI. LOWS U20S-M30S
XCPT 35-40 SERN CSTL AREAS. HIGHS FRI M-U40S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE VA/NC BOARDER WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST DURING THE EVENING. THIS WILL CONTINUE A SOUTHERLY WIND
DIRECTION WHILE INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.

A MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL HELP FORM A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE SE US AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVES NE OUT OF THE GOMEX
ON SUN. THIS WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AS A WARM FRONT
SURGES THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS(POSSIBLY
LOWER) DUE TO LOWERED CEILINGS AND REDUCED VIS DUE TO RAIN.
ALSO...WIND GUST TO 35KT MAY BE POSSIBLE MON MORNING AS THE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE OVER NE NC/SE VA.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA OVR SRN CSTL WTRS HAS EXPIRED AS SEAS DROPPED BLO 5 FT. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNG...EXPECT 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS WITH
LGT WINDS AS STRONG SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVR THE WTRS. THE HI
SLIDES FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS AFTN...WITH WINDS BCMG SLY AT 10-15 KT.
NEXT LO PRES SYSTM PUSHES NE TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
SUN/SUN NGT...WITH S/SE FLOW RAMPING UP OVR THE LOCAL WTRS AS THE
PRES GRADIENT INCREASES. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUN NGT INTO MON
IN RESPONSE TO THIS...AND MAY CONTINUE UNTIL MON NGT WHEN THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRNT CROSSES THE AREA. GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE
OVR THE OCEAN AS WELL. WITH THIS BEING 4TH PERIOD WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW. WAVES OVR THE BAY WILL REACH 3-4 FT WITH SEAS
OVR CSTL WTRS UP TO 6-8 FT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 222049
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
349 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND
MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY INDICATES A POTENT TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS
TX...WITH A BROAD RIDGE DOWNSTREAM COVERING THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A ~1032MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
THE NC OUTER BANKS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GENERALLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A FEW THIN BANDS OF CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD.
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE
MODERATED INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S WITH A LIGHT SSW WIND ON THE
NW PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST. AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE DOMINATED
BY THE CURRENT COOL/DRY AIRMASS. HENCE TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP
QUICKLY INTO THE 30S THIS EVENING UNDER A CLEAR SKY...EVENTUALLY
REACHING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD
THICKEN LATE...AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. HENCE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME STEADY OR EVEN
SLOWLY RISE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...THICKEN...AND LOWER FROM THE SW SUN
AS GULF COAST MOISTURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFT NE THROUGH
THE SE CONUS...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT SOME RAIN
SHOULD ARRIVE IN SW PORTIONS LATE IN THE DAY...WITH 60% POPS SW
LATE IN THE DAY...BORDERED BY A 30-50% POP FROM THE NW PIEDMONT
THROUGH NE NC. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW TO LOW 60S
SE.

THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WILL CROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION PRIMARILY FROM SUN EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE (+3 ST DEV PW 03-06Z MON PER
22/15Z SREF) WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DUE TO A STRONG NEARLY 70KT
LLJ. POPS FOR RAIN DURING THE 12HR PERIOD SUN NIGHT HAVE BEEN
RAISED TO 100%. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
COASTAL NE NC. HOWEVER...0-3KM LAPSE RATES SEEM TO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR THROUGHOUT THE 22/12Z SUITE OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...OFFSETTING
A STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELD. GIVEN THIS...THE SPC SLIGHT RISK HAS
BEEN SHUNTED S OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND 6HR PRESSURE FALLS OF -7MB TO -10MB PER 22/12Z GFS
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF
THE COAST. GUSTS FROM THE SSE DIRECTION OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. LOWS SUN NIGHT SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 50S...WITH
READINGS LIKELY TO RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG FORCING AND
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A ~6HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SUN NIGHT...WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS
AVERAGING 1.00-1.25IN.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION BY 12Z MON...WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE FAR WRN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUE. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING...WITH A GUSTY SW WIND
DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S (SEE THE
THE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS). 22/12Z NAM LINGERS MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO 20-30% DUE TO THE APPROACH
OF THE COLD FRONT AND SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE INLAND...WITH CLOUDS LINGERING NEAR THE COAST
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TUE. HIGHS TUE SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER MORNING LOWS FROM THE
MID 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST BY 12Z TUE. BNDRY THEN
STALLS OVR THE GULF STREAM TUE & WED IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF
S/W`S PROGGED TO DVLP THEN MOVE NE ALONG IT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRS
(OF PACIFIC ORIGIN) OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION BUILDS S&E THRU
THE MID WEEK PRD. UPR LVL LOW AND TRAILING CDFRNT PROGGED TO DIVE
SE FROM THE GT LAKES THU WITH HIGH PRS BUILDING INTO THE ARA FRI.

GRIDS WILL INDICATE SLGHT CHC SHWRS WITH FROPA MONDAY NIGHT. COOLER
AS CAA SET IN BEHIND THE FRNT. LOWS M-U40S NWRN HALF 50-55 SERN
HALF. TUE THRU WED FCST DEPENDS ON HOW FAR N&W MSTR GETS FROM THE
DVLPNG LOW OFF THE SERN COAST. GFS HAS A TRACK A BIT FRTHR EAST
KEEPING THE PCPN CONFINED TO SERN CSTL AREAS BY LATE TUE...AND GNRLY
E OF I95 WED. ECMWF SLOWER WITH A DRY TUE...PCPN MOVG ACROSS SERN
CSTL AREAS TUE NIGHT THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA WED BEFORE
PULLING OUT TO SEAS WED NIGHT.

TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF WITH THE COASTAL LOW TUE & WED...BUT THNK
IT IS OVERDONE WRT THE DEEPENING OF THE LOW OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST
TURKEY DAY. WILL INDICATE 20-30 POP ACROSS SERN CSTL AREAS TUE. DRY
ELSEWHERE. HIGHS M50S-L60S. A GENERAL RAIN OVRSPRDS THE FA SE-NW
TUES NIGHT AND WED...THEN ENDS WED EVE AS THE LOW PULLS FRTHR
OFFSHORE. PCPN ALL LIQUID WITH THIS EVENT. LOWS TUE NIGHT M30S-M40S.
HIGHS WED M40S-L50S. PCPN ENDS WED EVE BEFORE THE COLD AIR ARRIVES.
LOWS AFTER THE RAIN ENDS FALL INTO THE U20S-L30S W OF THE
BAY...M-U30S SERN CSTL AREAS.

CLIPPER TYPE S/W DIVES SE THU. ENUF MSTR SEEN WITH THIS FTR FOR AT
LEAST SLGHT CHC DIURNAL SHWRS (PSBLY MIXED WITH IP???) THANKSGIVING
DAY. HIGHS 45-50. DRYING OUT THURS NIGHT AND FRI. LOWS U20S-M30S
XCPT 35-40 SERN CSTL AREAS. HIGHS FRI M-U40S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE VA/NC BOARDER WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST DURING THE EVENING. THIS WILL CONTINUE A SOUTHERLY WIND
DIRECTION WHILE INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.

A MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL HELP FORM A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE SE US AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVES NE OUT OF THE GOMEX
ON SUN. THIS WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AS A WARM FRONT
SURGES THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS(POSSIBLY
LOWER) DUE TO LOWERED CEILINGS AND REDUCED VIS DUE TO RAIN.
ALSO...WIND GUST TO 35KT MAY BE POSSIBLE MON MORNING AS THE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE OVER NE NC/SE VA.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA OVR SRN CSTL WTRS HAS EXPIRED AS SEAS DROPPED BLO 5 FT. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNG...EXPECT 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS WITH
LGT WINDS AS STRONG SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVR THE WTRS. THE HI
SLIDES FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS AFTN...WITH WINDS BCMG SLY AT 10-15 KT.
NEXT LO PRES SYSTM PUSHES NE TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
SUN/SUN NGT...WITH S/SE FLOW RAMPING UP OVR THE LOCAL WTRS AS THE
PRES GRADIENT INCREASES. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUN NGT INTO MON
IN RESPONSE TO THIS...AND MAY CONTINUE UNTIL MON NGT WHEN THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRNT CROSSES THE AREA. GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE
OVR THE OCEAN AS WELL. WITH THIS BEING 4TH PERIOD WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW. WAVES OVR THE BAY WILL REACH 3-4 FT WITH SEAS
OVR CSTL WTRS UP TO 6-8 FT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 222049
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
349 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND
MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY INDICATES A POTENT TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS
TX...WITH A BROAD RIDGE DOWNSTREAM COVERING THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A ~1032MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
THE NC OUTER BANKS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GENERALLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A FEW THIN BANDS OF CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD.
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE
MODERATED INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S WITH A LIGHT SSW WIND ON THE
NW PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST. AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE DOMINATED
BY THE CURRENT COOL/DRY AIRMASS. HENCE TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP
QUICKLY INTO THE 30S THIS EVENING UNDER A CLEAR SKY...EVENTUALLY
REACHING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD
THICKEN LATE...AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. HENCE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME STEADY OR EVEN
SLOWLY RISE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...THICKEN...AND LOWER FROM THE SW SUN
AS GULF COAST MOISTURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFT NE THROUGH
THE SE CONUS...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT SOME RAIN
SHOULD ARRIVE IN SW PORTIONS LATE IN THE DAY...WITH 60% POPS SW
LATE IN THE DAY...BORDERED BY A 30-50% POP FROM THE NW PIEDMONT
THROUGH NE NC. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW TO LOW 60S
SE.

THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WILL CROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION PRIMARILY FROM SUN EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE (+3 ST DEV PW 03-06Z MON PER
22/15Z SREF) WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DUE TO A STRONG NEARLY 70KT
LLJ. POPS FOR RAIN DURING THE 12HR PERIOD SUN NIGHT HAVE BEEN
RAISED TO 100%. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
COASTAL NE NC. HOWEVER...0-3KM LAPSE RATES SEEM TO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR THROUGHOUT THE 22/12Z SUITE OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...OFFSETTING
A STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELD. GIVEN THIS...THE SPC SLIGHT RISK HAS
BEEN SHUNTED S OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND 6HR PRESSURE FALLS OF -7MB TO -10MB PER 22/12Z GFS
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF
THE COAST. GUSTS FROM THE SSE DIRECTION OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. LOWS SUN NIGHT SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 50S...WITH
READINGS LIKELY TO RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG FORCING AND
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A ~6HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SUN NIGHT...WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS
AVERAGING 1.00-1.25IN.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION BY 12Z MON...WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE FAR WRN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUE. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING...WITH A GUSTY SW WIND
DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S (SEE THE
THE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS). 22/12Z NAM LINGERS MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO 20-30% DUE TO THE APPROACH
OF THE COLD FRONT AND SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE INLAND...WITH CLOUDS LINGERING NEAR THE COAST
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TUE. HIGHS TUE SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER MORNING LOWS FROM THE
MID 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST BY 12Z TUE. BNDRY THEN
STALLS OVR THE GULF STREAM TUE & WED IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF
S/W`S PROGGED TO DVLP THEN MOVE NE ALONG IT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRS
(OF PACIFIC ORIGIN) OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION BUILDS S&E THRU
THE MID WEEK PRD. UPR LVL LOW AND TRAILING CDFRNT PROGGED TO DIVE
SE FROM THE GT LAKES THU WITH HIGH PRS BUILDING INTO THE ARA FRI.

GRIDS WILL INDICATE SLGHT CHC SHWRS WITH FROPA MONDAY NIGHT. COOLER
AS CAA SET IN BEHIND THE FRNT. LOWS M-U40S NWRN HALF 50-55 SERN
HALF. TUE THRU WED FCST DEPENDS ON HOW FAR N&W MSTR GETS FROM THE
DVLPNG LOW OFF THE SERN COAST. GFS HAS A TRACK A BIT FRTHR EAST
KEEPING THE PCPN CONFINED TO SERN CSTL AREAS BY LATE TUE...AND GNRLY
E OF I95 WED. ECMWF SLOWER WITH A DRY TUE...PCPN MOVG ACROSS SERN
CSTL AREAS TUE NIGHT THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA WED BEFORE
PULLING OUT TO SEAS WED NIGHT.

TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF WITH THE COASTAL LOW TUE & WED...BUT THNK
IT IS OVERDONE WRT THE DEEPENING OF THE LOW OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST
TURKEY DAY. WILL INDICATE 20-30 POP ACROSS SERN CSTL AREAS TUE. DRY
ELSEWHERE. HIGHS M50S-L60S. A GENERAL RAIN OVRSPRDS THE FA SE-NW
TUES NIGHT AND WED...THEN ENDS WED EVE AS THE LOW PULLS FRTHR
OFFSHORE. PCPN ALL LIQUID WITH THIS EVENT. LOWS TUE NIGHT M30S-M40S.
HIGHS WED M40S-L50S. PCPN ENDS WED EVE BEFORE THE COLD AIR ARRIVES.
LOWS AFTER THE RAIN ENDS FALL INTO THE U20S-L30S W OF THE
BAY...M-U30S SERN CSTL AREAS.

CLIPPER TYPE S/W DIVES SE THU. ENUF MSTR SEEN WITH THIS FTR FOR AT
LEAST SLGHT CHC DIURNAL SHWRS (PSBLY MIXED WITH IP???) THANKSGIVING
DAY. HIGHS 45-50. DRYING OUT THURS NIGHT AND FRI. LOWS U20S-M30S
XCPT 35-40 SERN CSTL AREAS. HIGHS FRI M-U40S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE VA/NC BOARDER WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST DURING THE EVENING. THIS WILL CONTINUE A SOUTHERLY WIND
DIRECTION WHILE INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.

A MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL HELP FORM A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE SE US AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVES NE OUT OF THE GOMEX
ON SUN. THIS WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AS A WARM FRONT
SURGES THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS(POSSIBLY
LOWER) DUE TO LOWERED CEILINGS AND REDUCED VIS DUE TO RAIN.
ALSO...WIND GUST TO 35KT MAY BE POSSIBLE MON MORNING AS THE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE OVER NE NC/SE VA.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA OVR SRN CSTL WTRS HAS EXPIRED AS SEAS DROPPED BLO 5 FT. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNG...EXPECT 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS WITH
LGT WINDS AS STRONG SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVR THE WTRS. THE HI
SLIDES FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS AFTN...WITH WINDS BCMG SLY AT 10-15 KT.
NEXT LO PRES SYSTM PUSHES NE TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
SUN/SUN NGT...WITH S/SE FLOW RAMPING UP OVR THE LOCAL WTRS AS THE
PRES GRADIENT INCREASES. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUN NGT INTO MON
IN RESPONSE TO THIS...AND MAY CONTINUE UNTIL MON NGT WHEN THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRNT CROSSES THE AREA. GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE
OVR THE OCEAN AS WELL. WITH THIS BEING 4TH PERIOD WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW. WAVES OVR THE BAY WILL REACH 3-4 FT WITH SEAS
OVR CSTL WTRS UP TO 6-8 FT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221945
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
245 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
JUST A FEW SHWRS WL CONT INTO THIS EVE AS A SHRTWV EXITS. ANOTHER
WK WAVE IS PROGGED TO ADVN ACRS THE RGN TNGT. MAINTAINED SLGT OR
CHC POPS GENLY FM PIT N WHERE SLGTLY MORE MSTR IS PROGGED OVRNGT.
IT WL BE MUCH WARMER TNGT WITH LOWS SVRL DEG ABV AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROAD UPR TROF WL CONT TO DVLP AND ADVN ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS
THRU THE WKEND. A SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF
AND ADVN ACRS THE OH VLY AND GT LKS RGN SUN NGT. WITH SUFFICIENT
DEEP MOISTURE...LLVL JET AND UPR SPPRT MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL RAIN
CHCS WITH IT/S PASSAGE.

THE MAIN UPR TROF IS EXPD TO SLOWLY ADVN INTO THE GT LKS TO MS VLY
RGN BY ERLY NXT WK. ANOTHER SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS
PROGGED FOR A MON PASSAGE. MSTR IS EXPD TO BE LTD WITH FROPA SO
MAINTAINED CHC POPS WITH THIS FEATURE. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WNDS
ARE EXPD MON AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS ARND A DEEPENING UPR GT
LKS SFC LOW.

COLD ADVCTN IS EXPD MON NGT INTO TUE UNDER THE BROAD UPR TROF.
BNDRY LYR FLOW IS PROGGED TO RMN SW SO NO LK CONNECTION IS EXPD.
ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SNW SHWRS IN THE RIDGES
BUT WITH MOISTURE DEPTH LTD ONLY INCLUDED SLGT CHC POPS. AFT WELL
ABV AVG TEMPS ERLY IN THE PD...EXP READINGS BLO SEASONAL LVLS
AGAIN BY TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
EASTERN STATES SIT UNDER A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR AT KDUJ WILL IMPROVE AFTER 19Z AS SHORTWAVE EXITS AND RAIN
DIMINISHES. ELSEWHERE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS MAINLY UNDER 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
NEXT STORM MOVES THROUGH. POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/10






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221945
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
245 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
JUST A FEW SHWRS WL CONT INTO THIS EVE AS A SHRTWV EXITS. ANOTHER
WK WAVE IS PROGGED TO ADVN ACRS THE RGN TNGT. MAINTAINED SLGT OR
CHC POPS GENLY FM PIT N WHERE SLGTLY MORE MSTR IS PROGGED OVRNGT.
IT WL BE MUCH WARMER TNGT WITH LOWS SVRL DEG ABV AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROAD UPR TROF WL CONT TO DVLP AND ADVN ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS
THRU THE WKEND. A SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF
AND ADVN ACRS THE OH VLY AND GT LKS RGN SUN NGT. WITH SUFFICIENT
DEEP MOISTURE...LLVL JET AND UPR SPPRT MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL RAIN
CHCS WITH IT/S PASSAGE.

THE MAIN UPR TROF IS EXPD TO SLOWLY ADVN INTO THE GT LKS TO MS VLY
RGN BY ERLY NXT WK. ANOTHER SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS
PROGGED FOR A MON PASSAGE. MSTR IS EXPD TO BE LTD WITH FROPA SO
MAINTAINED CHC POPS WITH THIS FEATURE. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WNDS
ARE EXPD MON AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS ARND A DEEPENING UPR GT
LKS SFC LOW.

COLD ADVCTN IS EXPD MON NGT INTO TUE UNDER THE BROAD UPR TROF.
BNDRY LYR FLOW IS PROGGED TO RMN SW SO NO LK CONNECTION IS EXPD.
ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SNW SHWRS IN THE RIDGES
BUT WITH MOISTURE DEPTH LTD ONLY INCLUDED SLGT CHC POPS. AFT WELL
ABV AVG TEMPS ERLY IN THE PD...EXP READINGS BLO SEASONAL LVLS
AGAIN BY TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
EASTERN STATES SIT UNDER A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR AT KDUJ WILL IMPROVE AFTER 19Z AS SHORTWAVE EXITS AND RAIN
DIMINISHES. ELSEWHERE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS MAINLY UNDER 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
NEXT STORM MOVES THROUGH. POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/10






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221945
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
245 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
JUST A FEW SHWRS WL CONT INTO THIS EVE AS A SHRTWV EXITS. ANOTHER
WK WAVE IS PROGGED TO ADVN ACRS THE RGN TNGT. MAINTAINED SLGT OR
CHC POPS GENLY FM PIT N WHERE SLGTLY MORE MSTR IS PROGGED OVRNGT.
IT WL BE MUCH WARMER TNGT WITH LOWS SVRL DEG ABV AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROAD UPR TROF WL CONT TO DVLP AND ADVN ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS
THRU THE WKEND. A SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF
AND ADVN ACRS THE OH VLY AND GT LKS RGN SUN NGT. WITH SUFFICIENT
DEEP MOISTURE...LLVL JET AND UPR SPPRT MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL RAIN
CHCS WITH IT/S PASSAGE.

THE MAIN UPR TROF IS EXPD TO SLOWLY ADVN INTO THE GT LKS TO MS VLY
RGN BY ERLY NXT WK. ANOTHER SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS
PROGGED FOR A MON PASSAGE. MSTR IS EXPD TO BE LTD WITH FROPA SO
MAINTAINED CHC POPS WITH THIS FEATURE. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WNDS
ARE EXPD MON AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS ARND A DEEPENING UPR GT
LKS SFC LOW.

COLD ADVCTN IS EXPD MON NGT INTO TUE UNDER THE BROAD UPR TROF.
BNDRY LYR FLOW IS PROGGED TO RMN SW SO NO LK CONNECTION IS EXPD.
ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SNW SHWRS IN THE RIDGES
BUT WITH MOISTURE DEPTH LTD ONLY INCLUDED SLGT CHC POPS. AFT WELL
ABV AVG TEMPS ERLY IN THE PD...EXP READINGS BLO SEASONAL LVLS
AGAIN BY TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
EASTERN STATES SIT UNDER A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR AT KDUJ WILL IMPROVE AFTER 19Z AS SHORTWAVE EXITS AND RAIN
DIMINISHES. ELSEWHERE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS MAINLY UNDER 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
NEXT STORM MOVES THROUGH. POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/10






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221945
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
245 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
JUST A FEW SHWRS WL CONT INTO THIS EVE AS A SHRTWV EXITS. ANOTHER
WK WAVE IS PROGGED TO ADVN ACRS THE RGN TNGT. MAINTAINED SLGT OR
CHC POPS GENLY FM PIT N WHERE SLGTLY MORE MSTR IS PROGGED OVRNGT.
IT WL BE MUCH WARMER TNGT WITH LOWS SVRL DEG ABV AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROAD UPR TROF WL CONT TO DVLP AND ADVN ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS
THRU THE WKEND. A SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF
AND ADVN ACRS THE OH VLY AND GT LKS RGN SUN NGT. WITH SUFFICIENT
DEEP MOISTURE...LLVL JET AND UPR SPPRT MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL RAIN
CHCS WITH IT/S PASSAGE.

THE MAIN UPR TROF IS EXPD TO SLOWLY ADVN INTO THE GT LKS TO MS VLY
RGN BY ERLY NXT WK. ANOTHER SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS
PROGGED FOR A MON PASSAGE. MSTR IS EXPD TO BE LTD WITH FROPA SO
MAINTAINED CHC POPS WITH THIS FEATURE. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WNDS
ARE EXPD MON AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS ARND A DEEPENING UPR GT
LKS SFC LOW.

COLD ADVCTN IS EXPD MON NGT INTO TUE UNDER THE BROAD UPR TROF.
BNDRY LYR FLOW IS PROGGED TO RMN SW SO NO LK CONNECTION IS EXPD.
ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SNW SHWRS IN THE RIDGES
BUT WITH MOISTURE DEPTH LTD ONLY INCLUDED SLGT CHC POPS. AFT WELL
ABV AVG TEMPS ERLY IN THE PD...EXP READINGS BLO SEASONAL LVLS
AGAIN BY TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
EASTERN STATES SIT UNDER A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR AT KDUJ WILL IMPROVE AFTER 19Z AS SHORTWAVE EXITS AND RAIN
DIMINISHES. ELSEWHERE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS MAINLY UNDER 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
NEXT STORM MOVES THROUGH. POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/10






000
FXUS61 KLWX 221939
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
239 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA IS SHIFTING OFFSHORE. A
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT A
WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT STALLS JUST
OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EAST OF GEORGIA WEDNESDAY MORNING...
TRACKING NORTH ALONG THE COAST DURING THE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

HIGH PRES HAS MIGRATED OVR ERN N CAROLINA...BUT AS MDLS HAD BEEN
PREDICTING IT IS DOING A GOOD JOB OF KEEP THE CLDS TO THE N AT
BAY. MID LVL CLDS CAN BE SEEN ALONG THE MASON-DISON LN...AND THIS
WL LKLY BE A WORST-CASE SCENARIO THIS EVE OVR MD. VA SHOULD CONT
TO HV PRIMARILY CLR SKIES. IT WL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NGT..LOWS
A30 MOST OF THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...

SUNDAY WL BE THE LAST PD W/O MUCH WX TO TALK ABT. HIGH PRES CONTS
TO DRIFT AWAY. RGN WL BE UNDER SRLY FLOW. HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGS
WARMER THAN TDA - M50S MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND AN ATTENDANT
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL BE PIVOTING NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY...WHILE A WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. A STRONG
LLJ WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WITH A SOLID SHIELD OF
MODERATE RAIN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AFTER 00Z. RAISED POPS
TO 100 ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT THE FAR WESTERN RIDGES...AS
THIS LOOKS LIKE A WELL FORCED SYNOPTIC EVENT WITH SIMILAR TIMING IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE ONLY QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY IS THE COOL
NEAR-SURFACE AIR SCOURED OUT WITH A NIGHTTIME WARM FRONT AND
POSSIBLE IN-SITU CAD. REGARDLESS OF THE TIMING...TEMPERATURES AND
DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB STEADILY THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS. 50 KT OF 0-1 KM SHEAR ALONG THE WARM FRONT...BUT
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR ZERO...ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND A FEW
SREF MEMBERS BRING A LITTLE ELEVATED CAPE EAST OF I-95. LEFT MENTION
OF THUNDER OUT...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR EMBEDDED RUMBLES. LOW LEVEL WINDS ALSO FAVOR A SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE
FLOW...SO THE HIGHEST QPF IS DEPICTED ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. PWATS WILL APPROACH 1.5 INCHES...SO EXPECT SOME SPOTS
COULD EASILY NEAR AN INCH OF RAIN. RIDGE TOPS COULD BE RATHER BREEZY
DUE TO THE LLJ. MAIN SHIELD OF PRECIP WILL PULL NORTHEAST AFTER 09Z
AS MID LEVEL DRYING BEGINS TO WORK IN.

CWA WILL BE WARM SECTORED ON MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND SOME LOWER 70S TO
THE EAST...GETTING CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION). IT
WILL ALSO BE BREEZY WITH SOME GUSTS TOPPING 25 MPH. BIGGEST QUESTION
OF THE DAY IS PRECIP POTENTIAL. THE 12Z NAM IS STILL AN OUTLIER WITH
MORE MOISTURE AND A NARROW CAPE PROFILE...WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING.
THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW MID LEVEL DRYING AND SOME
CAPPING...AND THUS DRY. WILL LEAN THIS WAY...KEEPING VERY LOW POPS.
HOWEVER THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL BECAUSE IF
SHOWERS/STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY WILL HAVE STRONG SHEAR TO TAP INTO.

BY MONDAY EVENING...THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO QUEBEC...WITH THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED...WITH THE NAM AND SREF THE MOST ROBUST WITH SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SMALL POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE 40S...WITH 30S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE THE COLDER
AIR WILL ARRIVE EARLIER.

GUIDANCE STILL DIFFERS SUBSTANTIALLY ON THE AMPLITUDE OF A RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING ONSHORE
OF WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND THE INTERACTION OF TWO SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. 00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS MORE
PRONOUNCED WITH THE RIDGE OUT WEST BECAUSE IT IS WEAKER WITH THE
INCOMING PACIFIC SHORTWAVE...AND AS A RESULT ALLOWS MORE
AMPLIFICATION/PHASING OF TWO SHORTWAVES OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES LEADING TO STRONGER CYCLOGENESIS MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST.
THE LATEST OPERATIONAL 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION AS
WELL...SO HAVE STARTED WITH WPC AS A BASELINE THEN TWEAKED POPS
UPWARD A FEW PERCENT AND NUDGED TEMPERATURES DOWN ABOUT A DEGREE OR
TWO /MORE AMPLIFIED NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND STREAM INTERACTION
BRINGS IN COLDER AIR/.

OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS EACH MODEL CYCLE HAS A FEW MORE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS BRINGING LOW PRESSURE CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT THE OVERALL
PATTERN IS NOT A CLASSIC SETUP FOR HEAVY WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE
METRO AREAS DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE RIDGE OUT WEST BEING
UNDERCUT/WEAKENED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WOULD ACT TO KEEP THE
PATTERN LESS AMPLIFIED AND THE EAST COAST SYSTEM MORE
PROGRESSIVE/TRANSIENT...WITH LESS COLD AIR REACHING THE CWA IN
CONCERT WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST.

BOTTOM LINE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE INCREASED DURING THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD WHICH COINCIDES WITH THE BUSIEST TRAVEL TIME OF THE
YEAR SO IT DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING. WINTRY PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT BUT AT THE MOMENT THIS SETUP DOES NOT APPEAR TO FAVOR A
CLASSIC MID-ATLANTIC SNOWSTORM.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...MORE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOLLOWS LATER IN THE
WEEK...GRADUALLY MODERATING INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD THEN OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

VFR CONDS TNGT AND SUN.

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN. A PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...DIMINISHING AND TURNING
WESTERLY MONDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDTIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.

W FLOW AOB 10 KTS TUE W/ VFR...BECOMING N OR NE TUE
NIGHT-WED...UNCERTAIN IN EXACT MAGNITUDE/DIRECTION DUE TO MODEL
DISAGREEMENT IN PLACEMENT OF LOW PRES ALONG COAST. LOW PRES ALSO MAY
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LWR CIGS/VSBYS LATE TUE NIGHT-WED EVE. WINDS
BECOME W AGAIN AROUND 10 KTS THU W/ RETURN TO VFR LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS ON THE WATERS ARE GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KT. SCA IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL EARLY EVE. NO PROBS ARE FORESEEN OVRNGT OR SUNDAY.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS
WINDS INCREASE BEHIND A WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL TURN WINDS TO
THE WEST MONDAY EVENING...WITH GUSTS GRADUALLY WEAKENING.

UNLESS LOW PRES WINDS UP MUCH MORE THAN CURRENTLY PROJECTED BY EVEN
THE STRONGER MODEL SOLUTIONS TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE
WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

CLIMATE...

ABNORMAL EARLY SEASON COLD CONTINUES...BUT WILL GIVE WAY TO NEAR
RECORD WARMTH MONDAY.

IAD TIED A RECORD LOW OF 14 DEGREES THIS MORNING...PREVIOUSLY SET
BACK IN 1964. PERHAPS MORE TELLING IS THE FACT THAT BWI AND IAD HAVE
NOT EXCEEDED 50 DEGREES IN A WEEK. TODAY`S HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN IN THE 40S...WHICH WOULD BE THE 8TH CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW 50 AT BOTH SITES...SECOND MOST ON RECORD AT IAD
IN THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER...AND THE LONGEST NOVEMBER STRETCH AT BWI
SINCE 1944.

STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL USHER IN
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES...AND HIGHS MONDAY COULD APPROACH
RECORD MAXIMUM VALUES. BELOW IS A LIST OF RECORD DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR 11/24.

SITE   RECORD (YEAR)
DCA    74 (1958)
BWI    73 (1979)
IAD    74 (1979)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

$$

PRODUCTS...WOODY!/ADS/DFH








000
FXUS61 KLWX 221939
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
239 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA IS SHIFTING OFFSHORE. A
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT A
WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT STALLS JUST
OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EAST OF GEORGIA WEDNESDAY MORNING...
TRACKING NORTH ALONG THE COAST DURING THE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

HIGH PRES HAS MIGRATED OVR ERN N CAROLINA...BUT AS MDLS HAD BEEN
PREDICTING IT IS DOING A GOOD JOB OF KEEP THE CLDS TO THE N AT
BAY. MID LVL CLDS CAN BE SEEN ALONG THE MASON-DISON LN...AND THIS
WL LKLY BE A WORST-CASE SCENARIO THIS EVE OVR MD. VA SHOULD CONT
TO HV PRIMARILY CLR SKIES. IT WL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NGT..LOWS
A30 MOST OF THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...

SUNDAY WL BE THE LAST PD W/O MUCH WX TO TALK ABT. HIGH PRES CONTS
TO DRIFT AWAY. RGN WL BE UNDER SRLY FLOW. HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGS
WARMER THAN TDA - M50S MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND AN ATTENDANT
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL BE PIVOTING NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY...WHILE A WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. A STRONG
LLJ WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WITH A SOLID SHIELD OF
MODERATE RAIN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AFTER 00Z. RAISED POPS
TO 100 ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT THE FAR WESTERN RIDGES...AS
THIS LOOKS LIKE A WELL FORCED SYNOPTIC EVENT WITH SIMILAR TIMING IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE ONLY QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY IS THE COOL
NEAR-SURFACE AIR SCOURED OUT WITH A NIGHTTIME WARM FRONT AND
POSSIBLE IN-SITU CAD. REGARDLESS OF THE TIMING...TEMPERATURES AND
DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB STEADILY THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS. 50 KT OF 0-1 KM SHEAR ALONG THE WARM FRONT...BUT
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR ZERO...ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND A FEW
SREF MEMBERS BRING A LITTLE ELEVATED CAPE EAST OF I-95. LEFT MENTION
OF THUNDER OUT...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR EMBEDDED RUMBLES. LOW LEVEL WINDS ALSO FAVOR A SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE
FLOW...SO THE HIGHEST QPF IS DEPICTED ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. PWATS WILL APPROACH 1.5 INCHES...SO EXPECT SOME SPOTS
COULD EASILY NEAR AN INCH OF RAIN. RIDGE TOPS COULD BE RATHER BREEZY
DUE TO THE LLJ. MAIN SHIELD OF PRECIP WILL PULL NORTHEAST AFTER 09Z
AS MID LEVEL DRYING BEGINS TO WORK IN.

CWA WILL BE WARM SECTORED ON MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND SOME LOWER 70S TO
THE EAST...GETTING CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION). IT
WILL ALSO BE BREEZY WITH SOME GUSTS TOPPING 25 MPH. BIGGEST QUESTION
OF THE DAY IS PRECIP POTENTIAL. THE 12Z NAM IS STILL AN OUTLIER WITH
MORE MOISTURE AND A NARROW CAPE PROFILE...WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING.
THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW MID LEVEL DRYING AND SOME
CAPPING...AND THUS DRY. WILL LEAN THIS WAY...KEEPING VERY LOW POPS.
HOWEVER THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL BECAUSE IF
SHOWERS/STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY WILL HAVE STRONG SHEAR TO TAP INTO.

BY MONDAY EVENING...THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO QUEBEC...WITH THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED...WITH THE NAM AND SREF THE MOST ROBUST WITH SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SMALL POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE 40S...WITH 30S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE THE COLDER
AIR WILL ARRIVE EARLIER.

GUIDANCE STILL DIFFERS SUBSTANTIALLY ON THE AMPLITUDE OF A RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING ONSHORE
OF WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND THE INTERACTION OF TWO SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. 00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS MORE
PRONOUNCED WITH THE RIDGE OUT WEST BECAUSE IT IS WEAKER WITH THE
INCOMING PACIFIC SHORTWAVE...AND AS A RESULT ALLOWS MORE
AMPLIFICATION/PHASING OF TWO SHORTWAVES OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES LEADING TO STRONGER CYCLOGENESIS MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST.
THE LATEST OPERATIONAL 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION AS
WELL...SO HAVE STARTED WITH WPC AS A BASELINE THEN TWEAKED POPS
UPWARD A FEW PERCENT AND NUDGED TEMPERATURES DOWN ABOUT A DEGREE OR
TWO /MORE AMPLIFIED NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND STREAM INTERACTION
BRINGS IN COLDER AIR/.

OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS EACH MODEL CYCLE HAS A FEW MORE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS BRINGING LOW PRESSURE CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT THE OVERALL
PATTERN IS NOT A CLASSIC SETUP FOR HEAVY WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE
METRO AREAS DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE RIDGE OUT WEST BEING
UNDERCUT/WEAKENED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WOULD ACT TO KEEP THE
PATTERN LESS AMPLIFIED AND THE EAST COAST SYSTEM MORE
PROGRESSIVE/TRANSIENT...WITH LESS COLD AIR REACHING THE CWA IN
CONCERT WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST.

BOTTOM LINE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE INCREASED DURING THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD WHICH COINCIDES WITH THE BUSIEST TRAVEL TIME OF THE
YEAR SO IT DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING. WINTRY PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT BUT AT THE MOMENT THIS SETUP DOES NOT APPEAR TO FAVOR A
CLASSIC MID-ATLANTIC SNOWSTORM.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...MORE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOLLOWS LATER IN THE
WEEK...GRADUALLY MODERATING INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD THEN OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

VFR CONDS TNGT AND SUN.

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN. A PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...DIMINISHING AND TURNING
WESTERLY MONDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDTIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.

W FLOW AOB 10 KTS TUE W/ VFR...BECOMING N OR NE TUE
NIGHT-WED...UNCERTAIN IN EXACT MAGNITUDE/DIRECTION DUE TO MODEL
DISAGREEMENT IN PLACEMENT OF LOW PRES ALONG COAST. LOW PRES ALSO MAY
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LWR CIGS/VSBYS LATE TUE NIGHT-WED EVE. WINDS
BECOME W AGAIN AROUND 10 KTS THU W/ RETURN TO VFR LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS ON THE WATERS ARE GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KT. SCA IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL EARLY EVE. NO PROBS ARE FORESEEN OVRNGT OR SUNDAY.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS
WINDS INCREASE BEHIND A WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL TURN WINDS TO
THE