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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241106
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
706 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND SEASONABLE TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE POST DAWN UPDATE...

PREVIOUS...
DRY SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
TODAY...AS CIRRUS AND MID CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE AREA. STILL EXPECT
SOME SUNSHINE...BUT WITH CLOUDS...HAVE BACKED OFF HIGHS A COUPLE
OF DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR FRIDAYS SYSTEM AND NOW
SHOW A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND A DEEPER SURFACE REFLECTION. THESE
FACTORS HAVE ALSO CAUSED A SLOWING OF THE SYSTEMS EASTWARD
MOVEMENT...PROMPTING THE PUSHING BACK OF THE ONSET OF SHOWERS.
BECAUSE THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED...PASSAGE WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS HAS CAUSED SOME CONCERN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SURFACE
FRONT. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE
AND NORTHWARD PUSH OF HIGHER SFC TDS. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE OUT
MENTION OF THUNDER...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE REVISITED IN FUTURE
FORECASTS.

SYSTEM WILL CLEAR THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. BRINGING AN END TO THE
SHOWERS.

WILL NEED TO KEEP IN A MENTION OF SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA.

WILL ALSO KEEP IN SCHC TO CHC POPS ON SATURDAY AS A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. NOT A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE OR UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THIS BOUNDARY...BUT COLDER AIR ALOFT MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHILE THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY...THE WORK WEEK IS
EXPECTED TO BE WET. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED TO BE QUITE
STAGNANT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NEBRASKA MONDAY MORNING WILL ONLY
DRIFT AS FAR EAST AS ILLINOIS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL SIMILARLY MAKE A LACK OF EASTWARD PROGRESS.
ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK SHOULD NOT BE A WASHOUT WITH CONTINUOUS
RAIN FOR FOUR DAYS...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BRING INTERMITTENT
SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRES WL MAINTAIN VFR AND LGT SFC TDA. SHWR AND RESTRICTION
POTENTIAL WL INCRS ON FRIDAY WITH THE APCH OF A CDFNT.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY TO THE N OF I 70 AS COOL
NW FLOW ENSUES IN THE WAKE OF FRIDAYS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241106
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
706 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND SEASONABLE TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE POST DAWN UPDATE...

PREVIOUS...
DRY SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
TODAY...AS CIRRUS AND MID CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE AREA. STILL EXPECT
SOME SUNSHINE...BUT WITH CLOUDS...HAVE BACKED OFF HIGHS A COUPLE
OF DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR FRIDAYS SYSTEM AND NOW
SHOW A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND A DEEPER SURFACE REFLECTION. THESE
FACTORS HAVE ALSO CAUSED A SLOWING OF THE SYSTEMS EASTWARD
MOVEMENT...PROMPTING THE PUSHING BACK OF THE ONSET OF SHOWERS.
BECAUSE THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED...PASSAGE WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS HAS CAUSED SOME CONCERN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SURFACE
FRONT. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE
AND NORTHWARD PUSH OF HIGHER SFC TDS. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE OUT
MENTION OF THUNDER...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE REVISITED IN FUTURE
FORECASTS.

SYSTEM WILL CLEAR THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. BRINGING AN END TO THE
SHOWERS.

WILL NEED TO KEEP IN A MENTION OF SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA.

WILL ALSO KEEP IN SCHC TO CHC POPS ON SATURDAY AS A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. NOT A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE OR UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THIS BOUNDARY...BUT COLDER AIR ALOFT MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHILE THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY...THE WORK WEEK IS
EXPECTED TO BE WET. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED TO BE QUITE
STAGNANT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NEBRASKA MONDAY MORNING WILL ONLY
DRIFT AS FAR EAST AS ILLINOIS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL SIMILARLY MAKE A LACK OF EASTWARD PROGRESS.
ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK SHOULD NOT BE A WASHOUT WITH CONTINUOUS
RAIN FOR FOUR DAYS...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BRING INTERMITTENT
SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRES WL MAINTAIN VFR AND LGT SFC TDA. SHWR AND RESTRICTION
POTENTIAL WL INCRS ON FRIDAY WITH THE APCH OF A CDFNT.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY TO THE N OF I 70 AS COOL
NW FLOW ENSUES IN THE WAKE OF FRIDAYS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241106
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
706 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND SEASONABLE TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE POST DAWN UPDATE...

PREVIOUS...
DRY SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
TODAY...AS CIRRUS AND MID CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE AREA. STILL EXPECT
SOME SUNSHINE...BUT WITH CLOUDS...HAVE BACKED OFF HIGHS A COUPLE
OF DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR FRIDAYS SYSTEM AND NOW
SHOW A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND A DEEPER SURFACE REFLECTION. THESE
FACTORS HAVE ALSO CAUSED A SLOWING OF THE SYSTEMS EASTWARD
MOVEMENT...PROMPTING THE PUSHING BACK OF THE ONSET OF SHOWERS.
BECAUSE THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED...PASSAGE WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS HAS CAUSED SOME CONCERN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SURFACE
FRONT. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE
AND NORTHWARD PUSH OF HIGHER SFC TDS. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE OUT
MENTION OF THUNDER...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE REVISITED IN FUTURE
FORECASTS.

SYSTEM WILL CLEAR THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. BRINGING AN END TO THE
SHOWERS.

WILL NEED TO KEEP IN A MENTION OF SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA.

WILL ALSO KEEP IN SCHC TO CHC POPS ON SATURDAY AS A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. NOT A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE OR UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THIS BOUNDARY...BUT COLDER AIR ALOFT MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHILE THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY...THE WORK WEEK IS
EXPECTED TO BE WET. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED TO BE QUITE
STAGNANT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NEBRASKA MONDAY MORNING WILL ONLY
DRIFT AS FAR EAST AS ILLINOIS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL SIMILARLY MAKE A LACK OF EASTWARD PROGRESS.
ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK SHOULD NOT BE A WASHOUT WITH CONTINUOUS
RAIN FOR FOUR DAYS...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BRING INTERMITTENT
SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRES WL MAINTAIN VFR AND LGT SFC TDA. SHWR AND RESTRICTION
POTENTIAL WL INCRS ON FRIDAY WITH THE APCH OF A CDFNT.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY TO THE N OF I 70 AS COOL
NW FLOW ENSUES IN THE WAKE OF FRIDAYS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241106
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
706 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND SEASONABLE TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE POST DAWN UPDATE...

PREVIOUS...
DRY SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
TODAY...AS CIRRUS AND MID CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE AREA. STILL EXPECT
SOME SUNSHINE...BUT WITH CLOUDS...HAVE BACKED OFF HIGHS A COUPLE
OF DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR FRIDAYS SYSTEM AND NOW
SHOW A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND A DEEPER SURFACE REFLECTION. THESE
FACTORS HAVE ALSO CAUSED A SLOWING OF THE SYSTEMS EASTWARD
MOVEMENT...PROMPTING THE PUSHING BACK OF THE ONSET OF SHOWERS.
BECAUSE THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED...PASSAGE WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS HAS CAUSED SOME CONCERN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SURFACE
FRONT. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE
AND NORTHWARD PUSH OF HIGHER SFC TDS. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE OUT
MENTION OF THUNDER...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE REVISITED IN FUTURE
FORECASTS.

SYSTEM WILL CLEAR THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. BRINGING AN END TO THE
SHOWERS.

WILL NEED TO KEEP IN A MENTION OF SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA.

WILL ALSO KEEP IN SCHC TO CHC POPS ON SATURDAY AS A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. NOT A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE OR UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THIS BOUNDARY...BUT COLDER AIR ALOFT MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHILE THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY...THE WORK WEEK IS
EXPECTED TO BE WET. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED TO BE QUITE
STAGNANT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NEBRASKA MONDAY MORNING WILL ONLY
DRIFT AS FAR EAST AS ILLINOIS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL SIMILARLY MAKE A LACK OF EASTWARD PROGRESS.
ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK SHOULD NOT BE A WASHOUT WITH CONTINUOUS
RAIN FOR FOUR DAYS...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BRING INTERMITTENT
SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRES WL MAINTAIN VFR AND LGT SFC TDA. SHWR AND RESTRICTION
POTENTIAL WL INCRS ON FRIDAY WITH THE APCH OF A CDFNT.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY TO THE N OF I 70 AS COOL
NW FLOW ENSUES IN THE WAKE OF FRIDAYS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 241053 CCA
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
521 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
BECOMES LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY THIS EVENING. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A SERIES OF WEAK AND GENERALLY DRY FRONTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COOL CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY AND
BECOME LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST BY THIS EVENING. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT TIGHTENED ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST TODAY AS THE HIGH MOVES IN AND A STRONG SFC LOW WELL EAST OF
THE NRN NEW ENGLAND COAST SLOWLY PUSHES EWD. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD...SUNSHINE WILL BE PLENTIFUL AND TEMPS WILL WARM NICELY
TODAY. CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW AS THE AFTN
PROGRESSES BUT THIS SHOULD HAVE A MINIMAL IMPACT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND VA/NE NC
AND IN THE LOW-MID 60S CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE CHES BAY/ATLANTIC
COASTS. IN ADDITION...DRY WEATHER AND FINE FUELS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY. THE DRY CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH BREEZY NW WINDS WILL ALLOW
MIN RH VALUES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS-LOW 20S MOST AREAS BY
THIS AFTN. INCREASED FIRE POTENTIAL IS A CONCERN ONCE AGAIN FOR
TODAY...BUT WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MD/VA EASTERN SHORE. PLEASE REFER
TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.

WINDS WILL TURN SE-S AND BE LIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE SEWD OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND
THICKEN OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC FRONT APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING
MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE
MID- UPPER 40S AREAWIDE (EXCEPT LOW 40S POSSIBLE FOR INTERIOR
MD EASTERN SHORE).

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS SLOWED AND THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE STRENGTH IS WANING AS BOTH FEATURES CROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SLOWING THE ONSET OF PRECIP AND LIMITING IT
TO AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 FROM MID-MORNING TO EARLY AFTN. THE
PRESENCE OF A THETA-E GRADIENT (AHEAD OF THE THETA-E RIDGE AXIS)
MEANS THAT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...DESPITE AN INITIAL LACK OF PREFERRED/FAVORABLE SFC
INSTABILITY IN THE MORNING. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IMPROVES DURING
THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING AND INCOMING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DESTABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE AND DEEP LIFT/OMEGA
ACCOMPANIES THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A PRIMARILY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE WITH SLIGHT VEERING WITH HEIGHT IN THE
LOWEST LEVELS (ROUGHLY BELOW 850-900 MB) WHICH IMPLIES THAT
THUNDERSTORM LINE SEGMENTS MAY BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...WIND SHEAR
FROM 0-6 KM IS AVERAGING ABOUT 30 KT WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS LOW. IN ADDITION ...
SHORT-LIVED LOW LEVEL SW FLOW WILL ADVECT MODEST PWATS INTO THE
REGION (0.75 TO 1.40 INCHES). THEREFORE IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD PRIMARILY BE UNORGANIZED WITH PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH
UNDER THE STRONGEST STORM CORES. KEEPING ONE CAVEAT IN MIND...IF
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIGS FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS (AS OF THU MORNING)...THEN THE AMPLIFICATION OF UPSTREAM
RIDGING WILL LIKELY STALL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING
THUS CAUSING AN ADDITIONAL DELAY IN THE ONSET OF PRECIP TO THE AREA
AND DECREASING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DUE TO UNFAVORABLE TIMING.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR 12Z MODEL TRENDS THIS MORNING AS WELL AS
SHORTWAVE PLACEMENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO DETERMINE BEST
TIMING/IMPACTS. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S ARE ANTICIPATED
MOST AREAS WHILE THE MD/VA EASTERN SHORE SHOULD BE IN THE LOW-MID
70S.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS
A SECONDARY DRY COLD FRONT (ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES) APPROACHES FROM THE NW. GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES FROM
WEST TO EAST FRI NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 AND MID-UPPER 50S EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95 (LOWER 50S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). THE DRY FRONT WILL
SAG DOWN ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT WHICH WILL RESULT IN BREEZY
WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S (POSSIBLY
80 DEGREES) FOR NE NC AND INTERIOR VA WEST OF CHES BAY AND INTO
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR THE MD/VA EASTERN SHORE. A NARROW
BAND OF MOISTURE AND MEASURABLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH
OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA SAT/SAT NIGHT. LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL BE
AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPS OF 45-50 DEGREES NW OF
RICHMOND AND THE MD/VA EASTERN SHORE...AND IN THE LOWER 50S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY PATTERN OVER
THE CONUS NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN AN INCREASINGLY WET PERIOD.

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THIS BLOCKY FLOW...MAINLY IN
LOCATION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO BE DRAPED ACROSS THE RGN
ALONG WITH TIMING OF SEVERAL BATCHES OF MSTR PROGGED TO ROTATE NE
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. WHAT TODAYS MODELS SHOW DIFFERENT FROM
YSTRDYS IS A SLOWER START TO THE PCPN MON...SOMEWHAT HIGHER
CONFIDENCE FOR AN EXTNDD PRD OF WETNESS FROM MON NITE THRU WED
ALONG WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL LIKELY PLAY HAVOC WITH
TEMPS.

KEPT SUN DRY/SEASONABLE AS H5 RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. WARM
FRONT APPRCHS THE RGN FROM THE SW SUN NIGHT...BUT GUID SUGGESTS
ANY MOISTURE STAYS W OF FA THRU 12Z MON. LOWS SAT/SUN NIGHTS IN
THE M40S-L50S. HIGHS SUN 70-75 WEST OF THE BAY...M-U60S ALONG THE
COAST.

FORECAST RATHER PROBLEMATIC NEXT WEEK AS THE MODELS DIFFER ON
WHERE THIS FRONTAL BNDRY SETS UP. THIS WILL LIKELY DETERMINE TMPS
AND PCPN TYPES (CONVECTIVE VS STRATIFORM RAIN). UPR LVL LOW
PROGGED TO SLOWLY EJECT EAST FROM THE NATIONS MID SECTION MON
NIGHT ONLY TO THE OHIO VLLY BY WED. A MOIST E-SE FLOW WILL LIKELY
ADD TO THE MOISTURE CONTENT RESULTING IN PERIODIC CHCS FOR PCPN
THRU THE PRD. FRNTL BNDRY MAY ALSO TRY TO MAKE A RUN FARTHER NORTH
BY WED AS SFC LOW BEGINS TO CROSS THE MTS. TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH ALL THIS OUT TO SEA...BUT THAT MIGHT NOT BE
UNTIL THURSDAY. UPSHOT WILL CARRY HIGH CHC POPS (SHWRS) MON
THROUGH WED. TMPS COOLEST (L-M60S) ALONG THE COAST DUE TO AN
ONSHORE FLOW. HIGHS U60S-L70S WEST OF THE BAY. LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HI PRES CONTG TO BUILD OVR THE RGN THROUGH TDA...RESULTING IN
DCRSG NNW WNDS. A LTL BIT GUSTY TO BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KT INTO THIS
MRNG...ESP NR THE CST. WNDS DIMINISH OVR INLAND LOCATIONS TO
AROUND 5 KT BY LT TDA. VFR TDA THROUGH TNGT.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. BRIEF PERIODS OF
IFR WILL BE PSBL AT THE TAF SITES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION DURING THE WEEKEND WITH VFR AND DRY WEATHER TAKING OVER
THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR
PCPN BY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LINGERING SCAS ON THE BAY INTO MID/LT MRNG HRS...ON THE OCN UNTIL
MID/LT AFTN. SFC HI PRES IS SLO TO BUILD OVR THE WTRS THIS
AFTN/EVE...RESULTING IN GUSTY NNW WNDS THIS MRNG WANING THIS AFTN.
VRB WNDS TNGT LESS THAN 10 KT...BECOME SSE ON FRI AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LO PRES FM THE W. SPEEDS TO INCRS FRI INTO FRI NGT...
THOUGH WILL KEEP BLO SCA...THEN BECOME WNW FRI NGT AND CONT
THROUGH SAT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS (MIN RH VALUES 15-25%) WILL OCCUR AGAIN TODAY.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PRECLUDE
THE NEED FOR ANY RED FLAG WARNINGS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. NW WINDS
DO INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH DURING THE
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HOURS ON THE LOWER MD/VA EASTERN SHORE.
GIVEN HOW LOW RH VALUES WILL BE THURSDAY AFTN COUPLED WITH LOW
FUEL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...HAVE CONTINUED THE INCREASED FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT FOR OUR MD COUNTIES (AFTER COORDINATION WITH MD
FIRE OFFICIALS) AND ADDED VA EASTERN SHORE COUNTIES TO THE
INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...ALB/LSA
MARINE...ALB
FIRE WEATHER...BMD













000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240921
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
521 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
BECOMES LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY THIS EVENING. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A SERIES OF WEAK AND GENERALLY DRY FRONTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COOL CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY AND
BECOME LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST BY THIS EVENING. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT TIGHTENED ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST TODAY AS THE HIGH MOVES IN AND A STRONG SFC LOW WELL EAST OF
THE NRN NEW ENGLAND COAST SLOWLY PUSHES EWD. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD...SUNSHINE WILL BE PLENTIFUL AND TEMPS WILL WARM NICELY
TODAY. CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW AS THE AFTN
PROGRESSES BUT THIS SHOULD HAVE A MINIMAL IMPACT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND VA/NE NC
AND IN THE LOW-MID 60S CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE CHES BAY/ATLANTIC
COASTS. IN ADDITION...DRY WEATHER AND FINE FUELS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY. THE DRY CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH BREEZY NW WINDS WILL ALLOW
MIN RH VALUES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS-LOW 20S MOST AREAS BY
THIS AFTN. INCREASED FIRE POTENTIAL IS A CONCERN ONCE AGAIN FOR
TODAY...BUT WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MD/VA EASTERN SHORE. PLEASE REFER
TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.

WINDS WILL TURN SE-S AND BE LIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE SEWD OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND
THICKEN OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC FRONT APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING
MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE
MID- UPPER 40S AREAWIDE (EXCEPT LOW 40S POSSIBLE FOR INTERIOR
MD EASTERN SHORE).

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS SLOWED AND THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE STRENGTH IS WANING AS BOTH FEATURES CROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SLOWING THE ONSET OF PRECIP AND LIMITING IT
TO AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 FROM MID-MORNING TO EARLY AFTN. THE
PRESENCE OF A THETA-E GRADIENT (AHEAD OF THE THETA-E RIDGE AXIS)
MEANS THAT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...DESPITE AN INITIAL LACK OF PREFERRED/FAVORABLE SFC
INSTABILITY IN THE MORNING. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IMPROVES DURING
THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING AND INCOMING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DESTABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE AND DEEP LIFT/OMEGA
ACCOMPANIES THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A PRIMARILY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE WITH SLIGHT VEERING WITH HEIGHT IN THE
LOWEST LEVELS (ROUGHLY BELOW 850-900 MB) WHICH IMPLIES THAT
THUNDERSTORM LINE SEGMENTS MAY BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...WIND SHEAR
FROM 0-6 KM IS AVERAGING ABOUT 30 KT WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS LOW. IN ADDITION ...
SHORT-LIVED LOW LEVEL SW FLOW WILL ADVECT MODEST PWATS INTO THE
REGION (0.75 TO 1.40 INCHES). THEREFORE IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD PRIMARILY BE UNORGANIZED WITH PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH
UNDER THE STRONGEST STORM CORES. KEEPING ONE CAVEAT IN MIND...IF
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIGS FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS (AS OF THU MORNING)...THEN THE AMPLIFICATION OF UPSTREAM
RIDGING WILL LIKELY STALL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING
THUS CAUSING AN ADDITIONAL DELAY IN THE ONSET OF PRECIP TO THE AREA
AND DECREASING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DUE TO UNFAVORABLE TIMING.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR 12Z MODEL TRENDS THIS MORNING AS WELL AS
SHORTWAVE PLACEMENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO DETERMINE BEST
TIMING/IMPACTS. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S ARE ANTICIPATED
MOST AREAS WHILE THE MD/VA EASTERN SHORE SHOULD BE IN THE LOW-MID
70S.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS
A SECONDARY DRY COLD FRONT (ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES) APPROACHES FROM THE NW. GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES FROM
WEST TO EAST FRI NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 AND MID-UPPER 50S EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95 (LOWER 50S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). THE DRY FRONT WILL
SAG DOWN ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT WHICH WILL RESULT IN BREEZY
WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S (POSSIBLY
80 DEGREES) FOR NE NC AND INTERIOR VA WEST OF CHES BAY AND INTO
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR THE MD/VA EASTERN SHORE. A NARROW
BAND OF MOISTURE AND MEASURABLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH
OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA SAT/SAT NIGHT. LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL BE
AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPS OF 45-50 DEGREES NW OF
RICHMOND AND THE MD/VA EASTERN SHORE...AND IN THE LOWER 50S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY PATTERN OVER
THE CONUS NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN AN INCREASINGLY WET PERIOD.

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THIS BLOCKY FLOW...MAINLY IN
LOCATION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO BE DRAPED ACROSS THE RGN
ALONG WITH TIMING OF SEVERAL BATCHES OF MSTR PROGGED TO ROTATE NE
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. WHAT TODAYS MODELS SHOW DIFFERENT FROM
YSTRDYS IS A SLOWER START TO THE PCPN MON...SOMEWHAT HIGHER
CONFIDENCE FOR AN EXTNDD PRD OF WETNESS FROM MON NITE THRU WED
ALONG WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL LIKELY PLAY HAVOC WITH
TEMPS.

KEPT SUN DRY/SEASONABLE AS H5 RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. WARM
FRONT APPRCHS THE RGN FROM THE SW SUN NIGHT...BUT GUID SUGGESTS
ANY MOISTURE STAYS W OF FA THRU 12Z MON. LOWS SAT/SUN NIGHTS IN
THE M40S-L50S. HIGHS SUN 70-75 WEST OF THE BAY...M-U60S ALONG THE
COAST.

FORECAST RATHER PROBLEMATIC NEXT WEEK AS THE MODELS DIFFER ON
WHERE THIS FRONTAL BNDRY SETS UP. THIS WILL LIKELY DETERMINE TMPS
AND PCPN TYPES (CONVECTIVE VS STRATIFORM RAIN). UPR LVL LOW
PROGGED TO SLOWLY EJECT EAST FROM THE NATIONS MID SECTION MON
NIGHT ONLY TO THE OHIO VLLY BY WED. A MOIST E-SE FLOW WILL LIKELY
ADD TO THE MOISTURE CONTENT RESULTING IN PERIODIC CHCS FOR PCPN
THRU THE PRD. FRNTL BNDRY MAY ALSO TRY TO MAKE A RUN FARTHER NORTH
BY WED AS SFC LOW BEGINS TO CROSS THE MTS. TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH ALL THIS OUT TO SEA...BUT THAT MIGHT NOT BE
UNTIL THURSDAY. UPSHOT WILL CARRY HIGH CHC POPS (SHWRS) MON
THROUGH WED. TMPS COOLEST (L-M60S) ALONG THE COAST DUE TO AN
ONSHORE FLOW. HIGHS U60S-L70S WEST OF THE BAY. LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HI PRES CONTG TO BUILD OVR THE RGN THROUGH TDA...RESULTING IN
DCRSG NNW WNDS. A LTL BIT GUSTY TO BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KT INTO THIS
MRNG...ESP NR THE CST. WNDS DIMINISH OVR INLAND LOCATIONS TO
AROUND 5 KT BY LT TDA. VFR TDA THROUGH TNGT.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. BRIEF PERIODS OF
IFR WILL BE PSBL AT THE TAF SITES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION DURING THE WEEKEND WITH VFR AND DRY WEATHER TAKING OVER
THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR
PCPN BY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LINGERING SCAS ON THE BAY INTO MID/LT MRNG HRS...ON THE OCN UNTIL
MID/LT AFTN. SFC HI PRES IS SLO TO BUILD OVR THE WTRS THIS
AFTN/EVE...RESULTING IN GUSTY NNW WNDS THIS MRNG WANING THIS AFTN.
VRB WNDS TNGT LESS THAN 10 KT...BECOME SSE ON FRI AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LO PRES FM THE W. SPEEDS TO INCRS FRI INTO FRI NGT...
THOUGH WILL KEEP BLO SCA...THEN BECOME WNW FRI NGT AND CONT
THROUGH SAT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS (MIN RH VALUES 15-25%) WILL OCCUR AGAIN TODAY.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PRECLUDE
THE NEED FOR ANY RED FLAG WARNINGS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. NW WINDS
DO INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH DURING THE
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HOURS ON THE LOWER MD/VA EASTERN SHORE.
GIVEN HOW LOW RH VALUES WILL BE THURSDAY AFTN COUPLED WITH LOW
FUEL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...HAVE CONTINUED THE INCREASED FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT FOR OUR MD COUNTIES (AFTER COORDINATION WITH MD
FIRE OFFICIALS) AND ADDED VA EASTERN SHORE COUNTIES TO THE
INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...ALB/LSA
MARINE...ALB
FIRE WEATHER...










000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240824
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
424 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
BECOMES LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY THIS EVENING. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A SERIES OF WEAK AND GENERALLY DRY FRONTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COOL CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY AND
BECOME LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST BY THIS EVENING. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT TIGHTENED ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST TODAY AS THE HIGH MOVES IN AND A STRONG SFC LOW WELL EAST OF
THE NRN NEW ENGLAND COAST SLOWLY PUSHES EWD. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD...SUNSHINE WILL BE PLENTIFUL AND TEMPS WILL WARM NICELY
TODAY. CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW AS THE AFTN
PROGRESSES BUT THIS SHOULD HAVE A MINIMAL IMPACT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND VA/NE NC
AND IN THE LOW-MID 60S CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE CHES BAY/ATLANTIC
COASTS. IN ADDITION...DRY WEATHER AND FINE FUELS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY. THE DRY CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH BREEZY NW WINDS WILL ALLOW
MIN RH VALUES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS-LOW 20S MOST AREAS BY
THIS AFTN. INCREASED FIRE POTENTIAL IS A CONCERN ONCE AGAIN FOR
TODAY...BUT WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MD/VA EASTERN SHORE. PLEASE REFER
TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.

WINDS WILL TURN SE-S AND BE LIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE SEWD OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND
THICKEN OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC FRONT APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING
MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE
MID- UPPER 40S AREAWIDE (EXCEPT LOW 40S POSSIBLE FOR INTERIOR
MD EASTERN SHORE).

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI MORNING AS THE UPPER WAVE REACHES
THE OH VALLEY. QUESTIONS STILL EXIST ON STRENGTH OF THE UPPER WAVE
AS IT CROSSES THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRI AFTERNOON...WITH THE
LATEST GFS TRENDING SHARPER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUNS AND COMING MORE
IN LINE WITH ITS NAM/ECMWF COUNTERPARTS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON-EVENING. SHORT LIVED LOW-LEVEL SW
FLOW WILL BE ABLE TO ADVECT MODEST PRECIP WATER VALUES OF 1-1.25
INCHES INTO THE REGION...BUT DEWPOINTS ONLY PROGGED TO WARM INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 FRI. WITH THE LOCAL AREA IN THE WARM
SECTOR FRI...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
(DEPENDING ON FRONTAL TIMING). COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPS AND
THETA-E ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
(MLCAPE <500 J/KG)...MOSTLY OVER ERN VA/NERN NC. ALSO...LITTLE
INSTABILITY/LIFT PROGGED IN THE MIXED PHASE LAYER SO ANTICIPATE
ONLY ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER IN CONVECTION. JUST LIKE
YESTERDAYS FRONT...BIGGEST LIMITATIONS ARE WSW FLOW AND LOW
DEWPOINTS. SHEAR IS ALSO MARGINAL (~30-35 KT) SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG THE WEAKLY FORCED FRONT. WITH THAT
SAID...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS OVER THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON
ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT. QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN
ONE TO TWO TENTHS.

FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT AS A SECONDARY DRY COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES APPROACHES FROM
THE NW. BREEZY WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW SAT AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES WILL RESULT IN DAYTIME TEMPS AROUND 80 DEGS MOST
LOCALES...EVEN BEHIND FRIDAYS FRONT. NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE AND
MEASURABLE PRECIP FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE
SAT-SAT EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY PATTERN OVER
THE CONUS NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN AN INCREASINGLY WET PERIOD.

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THIS BLOCKY FLOW...MAINLY IN
LOCATION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO BE DRAPED ACROSS THE RGN
ALONG WITH TIMING OF SEVERAL BATCHES OF MSTR PROGGED TO ROTATE NE
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. WHAT TODAYS MODELS SHOW DIFFERENT FROM
YSTRDYS IS A SLOWER START TO THE PCPN MON...SOMEWHAT HIGHER
CONFIDENCE FOR AN EXTNDD PRD OF WETNESS FROM MON NITE THRU WED
ALONG WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL LIKELY PLAY HAVOC WITH
TEMPS.

KEPT SUN DRY / SEASONABLE AS H5 RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. WARM
FRONT APPRCHS THE RGN FROM THE SW SUN NIGHT...BUT GUID SUGGESTS ANY
MOISTURE STAYS W OF FA THRU 12Z MON. LOWS SAT / SUN NIGHTS IN THE
M40S-L50S. HIGHS SUN 70-75 WEST OF THE BAY...M-U60S ALONG THE COAST.

FORECAST RATHER PROBLEMATIC NEXT WEEK AS THE MODELS DIFFER ON WHERE
THIS FRONTAL BNDRY SETS UP. THIS WILL LIKELY DETERMINE TMPS AND PCPN
TYPES (CONVECTIVE VS STRATIFORM RAIN). UPR LVL LOW PROGGED TO
SLOWLY EJECT EAST FROM THE NATIONS MID SECTION MON NIGHT ONLY TO
THE OHIO VLLY BY WED. A MOIST E-SE FLOW WILL LIKELY ADD TO THE
MOISTURE CONTENT RESULTING IN PERIODIC CHCS FOR PCPN THRU THE PRD.
FRNTL BNDRY MAY ALSO TRY TO MAKE A RUN FARTHER NORTH BY WED AS SFC
LOW BEGINS TO CROSS THE MTS. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY
PUSH ALL THIS OUT TO SEA...BUT THAT MIGHT NOT BE UNTIL THURSDAY.
UPSHOT WILL CARRY HIGH CHC POPS (SHWRS) MON THROUGH WED. TMPS
COOLEST (L-M60S) ALONG THE COAST DUE TO AN ONSHORE FLOW. HIGHS
U60S-L70S WEST OF THE BAY. LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HI PRES CONTG TO BUILD OVR THE RGN THROUGH TDA...RESULTING IN
DCRSG NNW WNDS. A LTL BIT GUSTY TO BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KT INTO THIS
MRNG...ESP NR THE CST. WNDS DIMINISH OVR INLAND LOCATIONS TO
AROUND 5 KT BY LT TDA. VFR TDA THROUGH TNGT.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. BRIEF PERIODS OF
IFR WILL BE PSBL AT THE TAF SITES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION DURING THE WEEKEND WITH VFR AND DRY WEATHER TAKING OVER
THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR
PCPN BY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LINGERING SCAS ON THE BAY INTO MID/LT MRNG HRS...ON THE OCN UNTIL
MID/LT AFTN. SFC HI PRES IS SLO TO BUILD OVR THE WTRS THIS
AFTN/EVE...RESULTING IN GUSTY NNW WNDS THIS MRNG WANING THIS AFTN.
VRB WNDS TNGT LESS THAN 10 KT...BECOME SSE ON FRI AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LO PRES FM THE W. SPEEDS TO INCRS FRI INTO FRI NGT...
THOUGH WILL KEEP BLO SCA...THEN BECOME WNW FRI NGT AND CONT
THROUGH SAT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS (MIN RH VALUES 15-25%) WILL OCCUR AGAIN TODAY.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PRECLUDE
THE NEED FOR ANY RED FLAG WARNINGS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. NW WINDS
DO INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH DURING THE
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HOURS ON THE LOWER MD/VA EASTERN SHORE.
GIVEN HOW LOW RH VALUES WILL BE THURSDAY AFTN COUPLED WITH LOW
FUEL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...HAVE CONTINUED THE INCREASED FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT FOR OUR MD COUNTIES (AFTER COORDINATION WITH MD
FIRE OFFICIALS) AND ADDED VA EASTERN SHORE COUNTIES TO THE
INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...ALB/LSA
MARINE...ALB
FIRE WEATHER...BMD












000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240809
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
409 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND SEASONABLE TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DRY SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
TODAY...AS CIRRUS AND MID CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE AREA. STILL
EXPECT SOME SUNSHINE...BUT WITH CLOUDS...HAVE BACKED OFF HIGHS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR FRIDAYS SYSTEM. NOW
SHOWING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND A DEEPER SURFACE REFLECTION. THESE
FACTORS HAVE ALSO CAUSED A SLOWING OF THE SYSTEM`S EASTWARD
MOVEMENT...PROMPTING THE PUSHING BACK OF THE ONSET OF SHOWERS.
BECAUSE THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED...PASSAGE WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS HAS CAUSED SOME CONCERN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SURFACE
FRONT. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE
AND NORTHWARD PUSH OF HIGHER SFC TDS. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE OUT
MENTION OF THUNDER...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE REVISITED IN FUTURE
FORECASTS.

SYSTEM WILL CLEAR THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. BRINGING AN END TO THE
SHOWERS.

WILL NEED TO KEEP IN A MENTION OF SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA.

WILL ALSO KEEP IN SCHC TO CHC POPS ON SATURDAY AS A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. NOT A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE OR UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THIS BOUNDARY...BUT COLDER AIR ALOFT MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

A BIT COOLER TEMPS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHILE THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY...THE WORK WEEK IS
EXPECTED TO BE WET. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED TO BE QUITE
STAGNANT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NEBRASKA MONDAY MORNING WILL ONLY
DRIFT AS FAR EAST AS ILLINOIS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL SIMILARLY MAKE A LACK OF EASTWARD PROGRESS.
ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK SHOULD NOT BE A WASHOUT WITH CONTINUOUS
RAIN FOR FOUR DAYS...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BRING INTERMITTENT
SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD TODAY...KEEPING WINDS AROUND 5
KT. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL WORK INTO THE REGION DURING THE MORNING.
HOWEVER...RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
EVENING...WITH ANOTHER ROUND POSSIBLE SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240809
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
409 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND SEASONABLE TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DRY SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
TODAY...AS CIRRUS AND MID CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE AREA. STILL
EXPECT SOME SUNSHINE...BUT WITH CLOUDS...HAVE BACKED OFF HIGHS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR FRIDAYS SYSTEM. NOW
SHOWING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND A DEEPER SURFACE REFLECTION. THESE
FACTORS HAVE ALSO CAUSED A SLOWING OF THE SYSTEM`S EASTWARD
MOVEMENT...PROMPTING THE PUSHING BACK OF THE ONSET OF SHOWERS.
BECAUSE THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED...PASSAGE WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS HAS CAUSED SOME CONCERN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SURFACE
FRONT. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE
AND NORTHWARD PUSH OF HIGHER SFC TDS. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE OUT
MENTION OF THUNDER...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE REVISITED IN FUTURE
FORECASTS.

SYSTEM WILL CLEAR THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. BRINGING AN END TO THE
SHOWERS.

WILL NEED TO KEEP IN A MENTION OF SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA.

WILL ALSO KEEP IN SCHC TO CHC POPS ON SATURDAY AS A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. NOT A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE OR UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THIS BOUNDARY...BUT COLDER AIR ALOFT MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

A BIT COOLER TEMPS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHILE THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY...THE WORK WEEK IS
EXPECTED TO BE WET. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED TO BE QUITE
STAGNANT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NEBRASKA MONDAY MORNING WILL ONLY
DRIFT AS FAR EAST AS ILLINOIS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL SIMILARLY MAKE A LACK OF EASTWARD PROGRESS.
ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK SHOULD NOT BE A WASHOUT WITH CONTINUOUS
RAIN FOR FOUR DAYS...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BRING INTERMITTENT
SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD TODAY...KEEPING WINDS AROUND 5
KT. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL WORK INTO THE REGION DURING THE MORNING.
HOWEVER...RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
EVENING...WITH ANOTHER ROUND POSSIBLE SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPHI 240808
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
408 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF OUR REGION WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD TODAY AND CREST ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MIDDLE
ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW FOR LATER SATURDAY AND INTO MONDAY. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN
WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY.  EXPECT A MAINLY
SUNNY SKY...DRY WX AND WARMER TEMPS THEN ON WED.  IT WILL STILL BE
BREEZY, ESPECIALLY EARLY, BUT THE WIND SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN
YESTERDAY.  THE PGRAD BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND STRONG LOW PRES OFF OF
NEW ENG IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE GUSTY WIND.  THE WIND SHOULD DECREASE
BY LATE AFTN/ERLY EVE.  TEMPS SHOULD END UP NR NRML.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL MOVE EWD TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRES MOVES ACRS THE
MIDWEST AND APPROACHES FROM THE W.  CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW MOVES CLOSER.  IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH MANY AREAS INTO THE 30S.  WITH LIGHT WIND EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT, IT MAY COME DOWN TO CLOUD COVER AS TO THE NEED FOR FROST
ADVISORIES. THE GROWING SEASON BEGINS FOR ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING WILL MOVE
EAST DURING THE DAY. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL
AFFECT THE WEATHER WITH SHOWERS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THE LATEST MODELS SEEM TO BE A FEW HOURS SLOWER
WITH THE ARRIVAL FOR THE RAINS...SO THEY MAY ARRIVE MORE TOWARDS
THE LATE AFTERNOON...BUT THEN LINGER INTO SAT MORNING ALSO.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S
IN MOST AREAS.

FROM SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS SAT
AFTERNOON...BUT THEY SHOULD BE SPOTTY AT BEST. TEMPERATES SAT
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...BUT THEN DROP BACK TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR SUN AND MON AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND A COLD FRONT
SAT NIGHT.

AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MIDWEST PART OF THE COUNTRY
WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERY/UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR TUE AND WED.
WE HAVE NOT CHANGED TO POPS MUCH FROM EARLIER AND GONE WITH THE
WPC FCST FOR THE MOST PART. HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS ARE FORESEEN
FOR THESE PERIODS. TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S IN
MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PD WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL.

EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTY NW WIND, THOUGH NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS
YESTERDAY.  GUSTS SHOULD REACH THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE.  THE WIND
SHOULD SUBSIDE DURG THE LATE AFTN/ERLY EVE AS THE HIGH MOVES EWD AND
THE PGRAD RELAXES.  EXPECT THE WIND TO GO LIGHT OVERNIGHT WITH
SPEEDS GENLY 5 KTS OR LESS.

THERE WILL BE HARDLY A CLOUD IN THE SKY TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT BUT
THEN CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE W.

OUTLOOK...
FRI MORNING...VFR WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.
FRI AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING...LOW CIGS/VSBYS IN FREQUENT
  SHOWERS. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
SAT AFTERNOON THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT ON THE OCEAN AND SCA ON THE BAY.  WILL
KEEP THE CURRENT END TIME IN TACT, BUT THERE MAY NEED TO BE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN WATERS.  A BACK END SCA WILL BE
NEEDED AFTER THE GLW COMES DOWN ON THE OCEAN.

OUTLOOK...
FRI...MOSTLY SUB-SCA. SHOWERS LATE.
FRI NIGHT THRU SAT AFTERNOON...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW END
   GALE GUSTS POSSIBLE OVER THE OCEAN.
SAT NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT...MOSTLY SUB- SCA. &&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY.   WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED, A DEEPER MIXED LAYER, AND LOWER DEWPOINTS,
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. WINDS
MAY BE A LITTLE WEAKER COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY, BUT WE STILL EXPECT
SUSTAINED WINDS AT LEAST 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH. THE WIND
SHOULD DECREASE BY LATE AFTN/ERLY EVE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 240808
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
408 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF OUR REGION WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD TODAY AND CREST ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MIDDLE
ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW FOR LATER SATURDAY AND INTO MONDAY. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN
WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY.  EXPECT A MAINLY
SUNNY SKY...DRY WX AND WARMER TEMPS THEN ON WED.  IT WILL STILL BE
BREEZY, ESPECIALLY EARLY, BUT THE WIND SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN
YESTERDAY.  THE PGRAD BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND STRONG LOW PRES OFF OF
NEW ENG IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE GUSTY WIND.  THE WIND SHOULD DECREASE
BY LATE AFTN/ERLY EVE.  TEMPS SHOULD END UP NR NRML.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL MOVE EWD TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRES MOVES ACRS THE
MIDWEST AND APPROACHES FROM THE W.  CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW MOVES CLOSER.  IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH MANY AREAS INTO THE 30S.  WITH LIGHT WIND EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT, IT MAY COME DOWN TO CLOUD COVER AS TO THE NEED FOR FROST
ADVISORIES. THE GROWING SEASON BEGINS FOR ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING WILL MOVE
EAST DURING THE DAY. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL
AFFECT THE WEATHER WITH SHOWERS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THE LATEST MODELS SEEM TO BE A FEW HOURS SLOWER
WITH THE ARRIVAL FOR THE RAINS...SO THEY MAY ARRIVE MORE TOWARDS
THE LATE AFTERNOON...BUT THEN LINGER INTO SAT MORNING ALSO.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S
IN MOST AREAS.

FROM SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS SAT
AFTERNOON...BUT THEY SHOULD BE SPOTTY AT BEST. TEMPERATES SAT
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...BUT THEN DROP BACK TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR SUN AND MON AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND A COLD FRONT
SAT NIGHT.

AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MIDWEST PART OF THE COUNTRY
WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERY/UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR TUE AND WED.
WE HAVE NOT CHANGED TO POPS MUCH FROM EARLIER AND GONE WITH THE
WPC FCST FOR THE MOST PART. HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS ARE FORESEEN
FOR THESE PERIODS. TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S IN
MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PD WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL.

EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTY NW WIND, THOUGH NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS
YESTERDAY.  GUSTS SHOULD REACH THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE.  THE WIND
SHOULD SUBSIDE DURG THE LATE AFTN/ERLY EVE AS THE HIGH MOVES EWD AND
THE PGRAD RELAXES.  EXPECT THE WIND TO GO LIGHT OVERNIGHT WITH
SPEEDS GENLY 5 KTS OR LESS.

THERE WILL BE HARDLY A CLOUD IN THE SKY TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT BUT
THEN CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE W.

OUTLOOK...
FRI MORNING...VFR WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.
FRI AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING...LOW CIGS/VSBYS IN FREQUENT
  SHOWERS. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
SAT AFTERNOON THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT ON THE OCEAN AND SCA ON THE BAY.  WILL
KEEP THE CURRENT END TIME IN TACT, BUT THERE MAY NEED TO BE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN WATERS.  A BACK END SCA WILL BE
NEEDED AFTER THE GLW COMES DOWN ON THE OCEAN.

OUTLOOK...
FRI...MOSTLY SUB-SCA. SHOWERS LATE.
FRI NIGHT THRU SAT AFTERNOON...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW END
   GALE GUSTS POSSIBLE OVER THE OCEAN.
SAT NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT...MOSTLY SUB- SCA. &&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY.   WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED, A DEEPER MIXED LAYER, AND LOWER DEWPOINTS,
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. WINDS
MAY BE A LITTLE WEAKER COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY, BUT WE STILL EXPECT
SUSTAINED WINDS AT LEAST 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH. THE WIND
SHOULD DECREASE BY LATE AFTN/ERLY EVE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...






  [top]

000
FXUS61 KLWX 240759
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
359 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH TODAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE EAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN ON SUNDAY AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS TO OUR SOUTH. SEVERAL
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED
BOUNDARY...BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY WHILE
RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS OVERHEAD BETWEEN AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS. SUBSIDENCE FROM THESE SYSTEMS WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE ALONG WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S
ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.

THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARD MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT
ALONG WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE MIDWEST DURING THIS
TIME. THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING
OVERNIGHT...BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MARYLAND WHERE
THERE MAY BE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING TO NEAR 50 IN DOWNTOWN
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO MOVE INTO OUR
AREA DURING THIS TIME. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY...ALLOWING FOR WARM AND MOIST AIR TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MORE MOISTURE TO MAKE IT INTO THE AREA BEFORE
IT MOVES THROUGH. THEREFORE...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED AND
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS...AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE MOUNTAINS.

THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WARM AND MOIST AIR FOR SOME INSTABILITY TO
DEVELOP AS WELL. THEREFORE...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. CLOUD COVER AND MARINE AIR SHOULD KEEP INSTABILITY LIMITED
ENOUGH TO KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH.
HOWEVER...SHOULD THERE BE MORE SUNSHINE THAT BREAKS OUT...THEN
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE DUE TO FAVORABLE SHEAR
PROFILES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

MOST MODELS STILL A BIT DIVERGENT IN THE PROGRESS/SPEED OF THE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS OUR REGION ON FRI...
EXITING LATE FRI NIGHT. A BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL HAVE ALREADY MOVED
THRU EARLIER IN THE DAY...W/ THE BACK END SUBSIDENCE MOVING ANY
LINGERING PRECIP OFF THE COAST LATE FRI NIGHT. THE DRIER AIR INFLUX
WILL HELP DROP DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES FROM THEIR EARLIER
VALUES...BUT STILL PLENTY MOIST WHICH WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE U40S-L50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL YEARS...HAVE SEEN A NUMBER OF LATE APRIL
CLOSED UPPER LOWS THAT MEANDER AND DRIFT OVER A PORTION OF EITHER
THE UPPER MIDWEST/OHIO VLY OR DEEP SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE ATLC
COAST. CANNOT REMEMBER SEEING/FORECASTING ONE AS LARGE AS THE ONE
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING FOR THE BETTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
ONE OF THE REASONS THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE SO VAST IS THAT IT
ORIGINALLY WILL HAVE STARTED OUT AS TWO SEPARATE UPPER WAVES THAT
COMBINE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.

THE FRIDAY UPPER WAVE AFFECTING OUR AREA WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLC
COASTLINE AND STALL BASICALLY OFF THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS
WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...A COLD AND DEEP UPPER WAVE OVER THE INTER-MTN
WEST WILL BE GEARING UP FOR AN INTENSIFICATION ONCE IT MOVES EAST OF
THE ROCKIES THIS COMING WEEKEND. THE STALLED NEW ENGLAND COASTAL LOW
WILL PREVENT THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE NOW LARGE-SCALE UPPER
SYSTEM OVER THE NRN PLAINS SUN/MON...AND ALSO SQUEEZE DOWN A COLDER
UPPER VORT DOWN FROM HUDSON VLY IN BETWEEN THE TWO LARGER SYSTEMS.
THE CONTINUAL ROTATION OF SMALLER VORT LOBES AROUND THE PARENT
SYSTEM WILL KEEP AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WX FOR ROUGHLY THE ENTIRE ERN
HALF OF THE CONUS FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

CLOSED UPPER LOWS TYPICALLY PRESENT A NUMBER OF FORECAST
CHALLENGES...AND THE DAILY DEPICTIONS OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE AN
INTRIGUING STORY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EACH PHASING PERIOD OF
THIS SYSTEM COULD CAUSE ANOTHER ROUND OR WAVE OF PRECIP ACROSS OUR
REGION W/ PERIODIC BREAKS IN BETWEEN. COMPARING THE GFS AND EURO`S
LATEST VERSIONS - THE GFS IS A MUCH COLDER AND COMPACT UPPER LOW
SLIDING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WHILE THE EURO...THOUGH SHOWING SOME
SIMILAR PROGRESS AND INTERACTIONS - NOT AS STRONG AS THE GFS. THE
CURRENT FORECAST FOR OUR AREA REVOLVES ESSENTIALLY AROUND A WET
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK PERIOD...W/ A SLOW BUILD UP TO IT THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS UNDER THIS TYPE OF REGIME WOULD BE WELL
BELOW AVG BUT NOT VERY COLD - MORE LIKE A MODERATED ENVIRONMENT W/
LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
GUST AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS THIS MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE EASTERN TERMINALS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY WITH
GUSTS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. CIGS/VSBYS WILL LOWER
TO MVFR LEVELS AND POSSIBLY IFR LEVELS IN BANDS OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS.

A QUIET WX WEEKEND IN STORE...AS ONE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES OFF
THE COAST FRI NIGHT - ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO SQUEEZE IN OVER THE
AREA SAT/SUN AND LASTING THRU LATE MON. HOWEVER...THE FRI/FRI NIGHT
SYSTEM WILL HANG OUT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND HELP STEER A COLD
UPPER LOW INTO A LARGE AND POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. THESE FEATURES WILL EVENTUALLY COMBINE INTO A LARGER SYSTEM
THAT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARD AND OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...STARTING LIKELY TUE AND ONWARD. PERIODS OF RAIN AND
PERIODICALLY LOWERED FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL LIKELY BE COMMON INTO
THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS TODAY. THERE
MAY BE A LULL IN THE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE UPPER
TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...BUT INCREASED MIXING SHOULD CAUSE GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL
DIMINISH DURING THIS TIME FROM WEST TO EAST. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED LATER THIS AFTERNOON,

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT. NO MARINE
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT FRIDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

A SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS BY THE NRN PART OF THE BAY FRI
NIGHT...BUT THEN WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN BEHIND THE LOW. WINDS WILL
THEN CONTINUE TO GUST INTO SAT...W/ PERIODS OF BREEZY CHANNELING
WINDS OVER THE BAY/TP INTO NEXT WEEK. A BREEZY SAT WILL GIVE WAY TO
A QUIET START TO NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN - THEN OUT BY
LATE MON/EARLY TUE. ONSHORE FLOW WILL THEN BEGIN AHEAD OF ANOTHER
SYSTEM FOR MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A NORTHWEST FLOW HAS CAUSED DEWPOINTS TO DROP SEVERAL DEGREES
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE...THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER TODAY WITH MIN RH VALUES AROUND 15 TO 25
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND SO A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT.
ELSEWHERE...WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH THIS MORNING INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. THEREFORE...NO FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES
ARE IN EFFECT.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT WITH A STRONG NOCTURNAL INVERSION.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE FRIDAY
MORNING AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS...AND
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN ONE-QUARTER AND
ONE-HALF INCH ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY SINCE THERE WILL BE A CONVECTIVE ELEMENT TO THE
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE TIDAL ANOMALIES
TO SHARPLY INCREASE. THE FLOW WILL TURN OFFSHORE BEHIND A COLD
FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT...CAUSING TIDAL ANOMALIES TO DECREASE BY
SATURDAY MORNING. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE NEAR TIMES
OF HIGH TIDE FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF THE ARRIVAL OF THE
OFFSHORE FLOW IS DELAYED A BIT.


&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ005>007-010-011-014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL/GMS
LONG TERM...GMS
AVIATION...BJL/GMS
MARINE...BJL/GMS
FIRE WEATHER...BJL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240625
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
225 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLIDES OVER THE REGION INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...LOCATING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A
SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND DECREASING NW
WINDS. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...ANOTHER
ROUND OF CAA OVERNIGHT WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S
INLAND AND INTO THE LOW 40S NEAR THE COAST. WINDS WILL NOT
COMPLETELY DE-COUPLE TONIGHT...RANGING FROM 5-10 MPH INLAND TO 10
TO 15 NEAR THE COAST. COMBINE LIGHT MIXING WITH RATHER DRY GROUND
CONDITIONS AND LOW DEWPOINTS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD FROST
AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF GRIDS. HOWEVER...PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE IN
SHELTERED LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OFF THE SE COAST THURS AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL DE-AMPLIFY AND EJECT NEWD INTO THE PLAINS
THURS...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO THE MS VALLEY. FLOW
RETURNS TO THE SOUTH LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
OVER THE REGION. MID-LEVEL WLY FLOW OVER THE GULF STATES INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC WILL PREVENT MUCH OF A MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE
REGION....SO DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. NWLY WINDS WILL NOT BE
AS STRONG THURS AFTERNOON...BUT MIN RH VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS-
LOW 20S AND DRY FUELS WILL AGAIN RESULT IN POTENTIAL FIRE WX
CONCERNS. PLEASE REFER TO FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI MORNING AS THE UPPER WAVE REACHES
THE OH VALLEY. QUESTIONS STILL EXIST ON STRENGTH OF THE UPPER WAVE
AS IT CROSSES THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRI AFTERNOON...WITH THE
LATEST GFS TRENDING SHARPER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUNS AND COMING
MORE IN LINE WITH ITS NAM/ECMWF COUNTERPARTS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON-EVENING. SHORT LIVED LOW-LEVEL SW
FLOW WILL BE ABLE TO ADVECT MODEST PRECIP WATER VALUES OF 1-1.25
INCHES INTO THE REGION...BUT DEWPOINTS ONLY PROGGED TO WARM INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 FRI. WITH THE LOCAL AREA IN THE WARM
SECTOR FRI...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
(DEPENDING ON FRONTAL TIMING). COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPS AND
THETA-E ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
(MLCAPE <500 J/KG)...MOSTLY OVER ERN VA/NERN NC. ALSO...LITTLE
INSTABILITY/LIFT PROGGED IN THE MIXED PHASE LAYER SO ANTICIPATE
ONLY ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER IN CONVECTION. JUST LIKE
YESTERDAYS FRONT...BIGGEST LIMITATIONS ARE WSW FLOW AND LOW
DEWPOINTS. SHEAR IS ALSO MARGINAL (~30-35 KT) SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG THE WEAKLY FORCED FRONT. WITH THAT
SAID...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS OVER THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON
ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT. QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN
ONE TO TWO TENTHS.

FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT AS A SECONDARY DRY COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES APPROACHES FROM
THE NW. BREEZY WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW SAT AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES WILL RESULT IN DAYTIME TEMPS AROUND 80 DEGS MOST
LOCALES...EVEN BEHIND FRIDAYS FRONT. NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE AND
MEASURABLE PRECIP FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE
SAT-SAT EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY PATTERN OVER
THE CONUS NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN AN INCREASINGLY WET PERIOD.

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THIS BLOCKY FLOW...MAINLY IN
LOCATION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO BE DRAPPED ACROSS THE RGN
ALONG WITH TIMING OF SEVERAL BATCHES OF MSTR PROGGED TO ROTATE NE
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. WHAT TODAYS MODELS SHOW DIFFERENT FROM YSTRDYS
IS A SLOWER START TO THE PCPN MON...SOMEWHAT HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR
AN EXTNDD PRD OF WETNESS FROM MON NITE THRU WED ALONG WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT WILL LIKELY PLAY HAVOC WITH TEMPS.

KEPT SUN DRY / SEASONABLE AS H5 RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. WARM
FRONT APPRCHS THE RGN FROM THE SW SUN NIGHT...BUT GUID SUGGESTS ANY
MOISTURE STAYS W OF FA THRU 12Z MON. LOWS SAT / SUN NIGHTS IN THE
M40S-L50S. HIGHS SUN 70-75 WEST OF THE BAY...M-U60S ALONG THE COAST.

FORECAST RATHER PROBLEMATIC NEXT WEEK AS THE MODELS DIFFER ON WHERE
THIS FRONTAL BNDRY SETS UP. THIS WILL LIKELY DETERMINE TMPS AND PCPN
TYPES (CONVECTIVE VS STRATIFORMED RAIN). UPR LVL LOW PROGGED TO
SLOWLY EJECT EAST FROM THE NATIONS MID SECTION MON NIGHT ONLY TO THE
OHIO VLLY BY WED. A MOIST E-SE FLOW WILL LIKELY ADD TO THE MOISTURE
CONTENT RESULTING IN PERIODIC CHCS FOR PCPN THRU THE PRD. FRNTL
BNDRY MAY ALSO TRY TO MAKE A RUN FARTHER NORTH BY WED AS SFC LOW
BEGINS TO CROSS THE MTS. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH
ALL THIS OUT TO SEA...BUT THAT MIGHT NOT BE UNTIL THURSDAY. UPSHOT
WILL CARRY HIGH CHC POPS (SHWRS) MON THROUGH WED. TMPS COOLEST
(L-M60S) ALONG THE COAST DUE TO AN ONSHORE FLOW. HIGHS U60S-L70S
WEST OF THE BAY. LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HI PRES CONTG TO BUILD OVR THE RGN THROUGH TDA...RESULTING IN
DCRSG NNW WNDS. A LTL BIT GUSTY TO BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KT INTO THIS
MRNG...ESP NR THE CST. WNDS DIMINISH OVR INLAND LOCATIONS TO
AROUND 5 KT BY LT TDA. VFR TDA THROUGH TNGT.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. BRIEF PERIODS OF
IFR WILL BE PSBL AT THE TAF SITES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION DURING THE WEEKEND WITH VFR AND DRY WEATHER TAKING OVER
THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR
PCPN BY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
OVERNIGHT...KEEPING NW WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SCA THRESHOLD. WINDS IN
THE RIVERS AND SOUND ARE FORECAST TO BE NO HIGHER THAN 15 KNOTS...
EXCEPT IN THE LOWER JAMES RIVER WHERE SCA ENDS AT MIDNIGHT.

WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY THURSDAY MORNING. SCA DROPS OFF LATE
THURSDAY MORNING IN THE BAY AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS BY 4 PM
THURSDAY.

SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. THESE
SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA. BEHIND THE FRONT...CURRENT INDICATIONS HAVE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TOO WEAK FOR SCA CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS (MIN RH VALUES 15-25%) WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY. THIS WILL
PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY RED FLAG WARNINGS OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
NW WINDS DO INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH DURING
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HOURS ON THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE.
GIVEN HOW LOW RH VALUES WILL BE THURS AFTN COUPLED WITH LOW FUEL
MOISTURE CONDITIONS...HAVE OPTED FOR AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT FOR OUR MD COUNTIES...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MD FIRE
OFFICIALS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...JDM/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...ALB/LSA
MARINE...MPR/LSA
FIRE WEATHER...AKQ






000
FXUS61 KPHI 240546
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
146 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED WILL BUILD SOUTH AND EAST THEN
ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN WEAKEN FRIDAY NIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATED TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER LOWER OTHERWISE JUST A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS TO TEMPS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION, IS TRYING TO PUSH EAST. THIS HIGH AND THE
SURFACE LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP A TIGHT GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION.

IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH MINIMUM WINDS CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND
20S. ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 20S ON THE LOW END
TO UPPER 30S ON THE HIGH END. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR.

MOST OF THE DEFINED SPRING GROWING AREA, FOR THE THIRD WEEK OF
APRIL, WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT. WE WILL NOT BE
ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING. THERE IS PATCHY FROST IN THE GRIDS, BUT WE
ALSO FEEL THE WIND WILL PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD FROST. A FROST
ADVISORY WILL NOT BE ISSUED EITHER AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AND THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHUTTING OFF, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST, AND IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60 ELSEWHERE. STILL, A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
FRONT.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH. AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED ENOUGH TO KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST...CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LAST TWO GFS
RUNS SUGGEST SOME PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AS UPPER
TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY SO EXTENDED CHANCE
POPS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. NO OTHER CHANGES OF
SIGNIFICANCE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

MET/MAV BLEND WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURES IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

FAIR WEATHER MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION, FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUES INTO EARLY MONDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE PATTERN CHANGE WITH INCREASED
BLOCKING, SLOWING STORMS SYSTEMS DOWN. REMAINDER OF EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE IMPACTED BY APPROACH OF SLOW MOVING STORM
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. SLOW SPEED AND SIGNIFICANT TAPPING OF GULF AND
ATLANTIC MOISTURE SUGGEST THIS WILL BE A VERY WET STORM SYSTEM FOR
SOME LOCATIONS. AND THAT COULD WIND UP INCLUDING US.

WPC TEMPS/POPS WERE USED AS PRIMARY INPUT FOR THE GRIDS IN THE
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.

I VERY SELDOM PUT POPS HIGHER THAN 50% OUT IN DAY 7. BUT GIVEN
CONSISTENT MODEL SIGNAL OVER PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL AS WPC
GUIDANCE, TODAY I DID.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE`LL HAVE STRATOCU
INTO THE EVENING HOURS, THEN GO CLEAR. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR TOMORROW.

THE ONLY ISSUE FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL EB THE WIND. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL SLACKEN A BIT FROM THIS AFTERNOON`S LEVELS, BUT STILL
GUST TO 25 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING...VFR EXPECTED.
FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
SAT NGT THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE NOW LOWERED THE GLW ON LOWER DEL BAY AS WELL, SO SCA FLAGS
ARE FLYING ACRS ALL OF DEL BAY, WITH GLW CONTINUING ON THE OCEAN.
WILL REASSESS ENDING TIMES WITH THE MRNG PKG ISSUANCE.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU MON...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. NEAR SCA GUSTS
FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, TEMPERATURES NEVER GOT
A CHANCE TO WARM MUCH AND DEWPOINTS WERE UNABLE TO DROP MUCH UNTIL
VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TOOK PLACE.
THEREFORE, THE WARNING FOR TODAY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

THIS WILL BE DIFFERENT ON THURSDAY. WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED, A DEEPER MIXED LAYER, AND LOWER DEWPOINTS, AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. WINDS MAY BE A
LITTLE WEAKER ON THURSDAY COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY, BUT WE STILL
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS AT LEAST 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH. THE
FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW AS WELL. ALL THREE
CRITERIA (WIND, FUELS, RH`S) SHOULD BE MET, SO WE WILL UPGRADE THE
WATCH TO WARNING ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...KRUZDLO/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/KRUZDLO
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/KRUZDLO/NIERENBERG
FIRE WEATHER...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 240546
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
146 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED WILL BUILD SOUTH AND EAST THEN
ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN WEAKEN FRIDAY NIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATED TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER LOWER OTHERWISE JUST A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS TO TEMPS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION, IS TRYING TO PUSH EAST. THIS HIGH AND THE
SURFACE LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP A TIGHT GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION.

IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH MINIMUM WINDS CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND
20S. ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 20S ON THE LOW END
TO UPPER 30S ON THE HIGH END. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR.

MOST OF THE DEFINED SPRING GROWING AREA, FOR THE THIRD WEEK OF
APRIL, WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT. WE WILL NOT BE
ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING. THERE IS PATCHY FROST IN THE GRIDS, BUT WE
ALSO FEEL THE WIND WILL PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD FROST. A FROST
ADVISORY WILL NOT BE ISSUED EITHER AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AND THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHUTTING OFF, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST, AND IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60 ELSEWHERE. STILL, A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
FRONT.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH. AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED ENOUGH TO KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST...CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LAST TWO GFS
RUNS SUGGEST SOME PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AS UPPER
TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY SO EXTENDED CHANCE
POPS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. NO OTHER CHANGES OF
SIGNIFICANCE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

MET/MAV BLEND WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURES IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

FAIR WEATHER MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION, FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUES INTO EARLY MONDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE PATTERN CHANGE WITH INCREASED
BLOCKING, SLOWING STORMS SYSTEMS DOWN. REMAINDER OF EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE IMPACTED BY APPROACH OF SLOW MOVING STORM
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. SLOW SPEED AND SIGNIFICANT TAPPING OF GULF AND
ATLANTIC MOISTURE SUGGEST THIS WILL BE A VERY WET STORM SYSTEM FOR
SOME LOCATIONS. AND THAT COULD WIND UP INCLUDING US.

WPC TEMPS/POPS WERE USED AS PRIMARY INPUT FOR THE GRIDS IN THE
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.

I VERY SELDOM PUT POPS HIGHER THAN 50% OUT IN DAY 7. BUT GIVEN
CONSISTENT MODEL SIGNAL OVER PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL AS WPC
GUIDANCE, TODAY I DID.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE`LL HAVE STRATOCU
INTO THE EVENING HOURS, THEN GO CLEAR. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR TOMORROW.

THE ONLY ISSUE FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL EB THE WIND. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL SLACKEN A BIT FROM THIS AFTERNOON`S LEVELS, BUT STILL
GUST TO 25 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING...VFR EXPECTED.
FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
SAT NGT THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE NOW LOWERED THE GLW ON LOWER DEL BAY AS WELL, SO SCA FLAGS
ARE FLYING ACRS ALL OF DEL BAY, WITH GLW CONTINUING ON THE OCEAN.
WILL REASSESS ENDING TIMES WITH THE MRNG PKG ISSUANCE.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU MON...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. NEAR SCA GUSTS
FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, TEMPERATURES NEVER GOT
A CHANCE TO WARM MUCH AND DEWPOINTS WERE UNABLE TO DROP MUCH UNTIL
VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TOOK PLACE.
THEREFORE, THE WARNING FOR TODAY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

THIS WILL BE DIFFERENT ON THURSDAY. WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED, A DEEPER MIXED LAYER, AND LOWER DEWPOINTS, AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. WINDS MAY BE A
LITTLE WEAKER ON THURSDAY COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY, BUT WE STILL
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS AT LEAST 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH. THE
FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW AS WELL. ALL THREE
CRITERIA (WIND, FUELS, RH`S) SHOULD BE MET, SO WE WILL UPGRADE THE
WATCH TO WARNING ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...KRUZDLO/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/KRUZDLO
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/KRUZDLO/NIERENBERG
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240433 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1233 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND COOL TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HAVE TRIED TO ADJUST
SURFACE TDS TO DENOTE THE DRIER AIR SINKING TO THE SURFACE. ALSO
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER...AS CIRRUS SHIELD TO WEST IS
HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESSION. TEMPS WERE IN
LINE WITH LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

DRY SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
TODAY. CIRRUS AND MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE EASTWARD WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. STILL EXPECT SOME SUNSHINE...BUT WITH CLOUDS...HAVE BACKED
OFF HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR FRIDAYS SYSTEM. NOW
SHOWING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND A DEEPER SURFACE REFLECTION. THESE
FACTORS HAVE ALSO CAUSED A SLOWING OF THE SYSTEM`S EASTWARD
MOVEMENT...PROMPTING THE PUSHING BACK OF THE ONSET OF SHOWERS.
BECAUSE THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED...PASSAGE WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS HAS CAUSED SOME CONCERN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SURFACE
FRONT. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE
AND NORTHWARD PUSH OF HIGHER SFC TDS. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE OUT
MENTION OF THUNDER...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE REVISITED IN FUTURE
FORECASTS.

SYSTEM WILL CLEAR THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. BRINGING AN END TO THE
SHOWERS.

WILL NEED TO KEEP IN A MENTION OF SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA.

WILL ALSO KEEP IN SCHC TO CHC POPS ON SATURDAY AS A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. NOT A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE OR UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THIS BOUNDARY...BUT COLDER AIR ALOFT MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

A BIT COOLER TEMPS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS WILL COME WITH A FRIDAY
COLDFRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240433 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1233 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND COOL TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HAVE TRIED TO ADJUST
SURFACE TDS TO DENOTE THE DRIER AIR SINKING TO THE SURFACE. ALSO
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER...AS CIRRUS SHIELD TO WEST IS
HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESSION. TEMPS WERE IN
LINE WITH LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

DRY SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
TODAY. CIRRUS AND MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE EASTWARD WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. STILL EXPECT SOME SUNSHINE...BUT WITH CLOUDS...HAVE BACKED
OFF HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR FRIDAYS SYSTEM. NOW
SHOWING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND A DEEPER SURFACE REFLECTION. THESE
FACTORS HAVE ALSO CAUSED A SLOWING OF THE SYSTEM`S EASTWARD
MOVEMENT...PROMPTING THE PUSHING BACK OF THE ONSET OF SHOWERS.
BECAUSE THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED...PASSAGE WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS HAS CAUSED SOME CONCERN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SURFACE
FRONT. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE
AND NORTHWARD PUSH OF HIGHER SFC TDS. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE OUT
MENTION OF THUNDER...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE REVISITED IN FUTURE
FORECASTS.

SYSTEM WILL CLEAR THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. BRINGING AN END TO THE
SHOWERS.

WILL NEED TO KEEP IN A MENTION OF SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA.

WILL ALSO KEEP IN SCHC TO CHC POPS ON SATURDAY AS A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. NOT A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE OR UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THIS BOUNDARY...BUT COLDER AIR ALOFT MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

A BIT COOLER TEMPS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS WILL COME WITH A FRIDAY
COLDFRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240433 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1233 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND COOL TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HAVE TRIED TO ADJUST
SURFACE TDS TO DENOTE THE DRIER AIR SINKING TO THE SURFACE. ALSO
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER...AS CIRRUS SHIELD TO WEST IS
HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESSION. TEMPS WERE IN
LINE WITH LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

DRY SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
TODAY. CIRRUS AND MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE EASTWARD WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. STILL EXPECT SOME SUNSHINE...BUT WITH CLOUDS...HAVE BACKED
OFF HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR FRIDAYS SYSTEM. NOW
SHOWING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND A DEEPER SURFACE REFLECTION. THESE
FACTORS HAVE ALSO CAUSED A SLOWING OF THE SYSTEM`S EASTWARD
MOVEMENT...PROMPTING THE PUSHING BACK OF THE ONSET OF SHOWERS.
BECAUSE THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED...PASSAGE WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS HAS CAUSED SOME CONCERN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SURFACE
FRONT. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE
AND NORTHWARD PUSH OF HIGHER SFC TDS. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE OUT
MENTION OF THUNDER...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE REVISITED IN FUTURE
FORECASTS.

SYSTEM WILL CLEAR THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. BRINGING AN END TO THE
SHOWERS.

WILL NEED TO KEEP IN A MENTION OF SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA.

WILL ALSO KEEP IN SCHC TO CHC POPS ON SATURDAY AS A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. NOT A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE OR UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THIS BOUNDARY...BUT COLDER AIR ALOFT MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

A BIT COOLER TEMPS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS WILL COME WITH A FRIDAY
COLDFRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240433 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1233 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND COOL TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HAVE TRIED TO ADJUST
SURFACE TDS TO DENOTE THE DRIER AIR SINKING TO THE SURFACE. ALSO
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER...AS CIRRUS SHIELD TO WEST IS
HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESSION. TEMPS WERE IN
LINE WITH LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

DRY SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
TODAY. CIRRUS AND MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE EASTWARD WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. STILL EXPECT SOME SUNSHINE...BUT WITH CLOUDS...HAVE BACKED
OFF HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR FRIDAYS SYSTEM. NOW
SHOWING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND A DEEPER SURFACE REFLECTION. THESE
FACTORS HAVE ALSO CAUSED A SLOWING OF THE SYSTEM`S EASTWARD
MOVEMENT...PROMPTING THE PUSHING BACK OF THE ONSET OF SHOWERS.
BECAUSE THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED...PASSAGE WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS HAS CAUSED SOME CONCERN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SURFACE
FRONT. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE
AND NORTHWARD PUSH OF HIGHER SFC TDS. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE OUT
MENTION OF THUNDER...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE REVISITED IN FUTURE
FORECASTS.

SYSTEM WILL CLEAR THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. BRINGING AN END TO THE
SHOWERS.

WILL NEED TO KEEP IN A MENTION OF SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA.

WILL ALSO KEEP IN SCHC TO CHC POPS ON SATURDAY AS A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. NOT A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE OR UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THIS BOUNDARY...BUT COLDER AIR ALOFT MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

A BIT COOLER TEMPS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS WILL COME WITH A FRIDAY
COLDFRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 240411
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1211 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED WILL BUILD SOUTH AND EAST THEN
ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN WEAKEN FRIDAY NIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATED TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER LOWER OTHERWISE JUST A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS TO TEMPS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION, IS TRYING TO PUSH EAST. THIS HIGH AND THE
SURFACE LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP A TIGHT GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION.

IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH MINIMUM WINDS CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND
20S. ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 20S ON THE LOW END
TO UPPER 30S ON THE HIGH END. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR.

MOST OF THE DEFINED SPRING GROWING AREA, FOR THE THIRD WEEK OF
APRIL, WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT. WE WILL NOT BE
ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING. THERE IS PATCHY FROST IN THE GRIDS, BUT WE
ALSO FEEL THE WIND WILL PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD FROST. A FROST
ADVISORY WILL NOT BE ISSUED EITHER AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AND THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHUTTING OFF, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST, AND IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60 ELSEWHERE. STILL, A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
FRONT.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH. AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED ENOUGH TO KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST...CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LAST TWO GFS
RUNS SUGGEST SOME PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AS UPPER
TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY SO EXTENDED CHANCE
POPS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. NO OTHER CHANGES OF
SIGNIFICANCE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

MET/MAV BLEND WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURES IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

FAIR WEATHER MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION, FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUES INTO EARLY MONDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE PATTERN CHANGE WITH INCREASED
BLOCKING, SLOWING STORMS SYSTEMS DOWN. REMAINDER OF EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE IMPACTED BY APPROACH OF SLOW MOVING STORM
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. SLOW SPEED AND SIGNIFICANT TAPPING OF GULF AND
ATLANTIC MOISTURE SUGGEST THIS WILL BE A VERY WET STORM SYSTEM FOR
SOME LOCATIONS. AND THAT COULD WIND UP INCLUDING US.

WPC TEMPS/POPS WERE USED AS PRIMARY INPUT FOR THE GRIDS IN THE
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.

I VERY SELDOM PUT POPS HIGHER THAN 50% OUT IN DAY 7. BUT GIVEN
CONSISTENT MODEL SIGNAL OVER PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL AS WPC
GUIDANCE, TODAY I DID.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE`LL HAVE STRATOCU
INTO THE EVENING HOURS, THEN GO CLEAR. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR TOMORROW.

THE ONLY ISSUE FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL EB THE WIND. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL SLACKEN A BIT FROM THIS AFTERNOON`S LEVELS, BUT STILL
GUST TO 25 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING...VFR EXPECTED.
FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
SAT NGT THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
OPTED TO LOWER THE GALE WARNING ON UPR DEL BAY. HOWEVER, LATEST
OBS WERE CLOSE ENOUGH TO GLW CRITERIA THAT WILL KEEP THE GALE FLAG
FLYING ON THE LOWER BAY A BIT LONGER. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES ON THE
NEAR AND SHORT TERM MARINE. WILL REASSESS FOR THE MRNG PKG
ISSUANCE.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU MON...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. NEAR SCA GUSTS
FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, TEMPERATURES NEVER GOT
A CHANCE TO WARM MUCH AND DEWPOINTS WERE UNABLE TO DROP MUCH UNTIL
VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TOOK PLACE.
THEREFORE, THE WARNING FOR TODAY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

THIS WILL BE DIFFERENT ON THURSDAY. WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED, A DEEPER MIXED LAYER, AND LOWER DEWPOINTS, AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. WINDS MAY BE A
LITTLE WEAKER ON THURSDAY COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY, BUT WE STILL
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS AT LEAST 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH. THE
FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW AS WELL. ALL THREE
CRITERIA (WIND, FUELS, RH`S) SHOULD BE MET, SO WE WILL UPGRADE THE
WATCH TO WARNING ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ430.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT
     TODAY FOR ANZ431.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...KRUZDLO/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/KRUZDLO
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/KRUZDLO/NIERENBERG
FIRE WEATHER...








000
FXUS61 KPHI 240411
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1211 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED WILL BUILD SOUTH AND EAST THEN
ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN WEAKEN FRIDAY NIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATED TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER LOWER OTHERWISE JUST A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS TO TEMPS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION, IS TRYING TO PUSH EAST. THIS HIGH AND THE
SURFACE LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP A TIGHT GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION.

IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH MINIMUM WINDS CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND
20S. ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 20S ON THE LOW END
TO UPPER 30S ON THE HIGH END. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR.

MOST OF THE DEFINED SPRING GROWING AREA, FOR THE THIRD WEEK OF
APRIL, WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT. WE WILL NOT BE
ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING. THERE IS PATCHY FROST IN THE GRIDS, BUT WE
ALSO FEEL THE WIND WILL PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD FROST. A FROST
ADVISORY WILL NOT BE ISSUED EITHER AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AND THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHUTTING OFF, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST, AND IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60 ELSEWHERE. STILL, A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
FRONT.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH. AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED ENOUGH TO KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST...CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LAST TWO GFS
RUNS SUGGEST SOME PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AS UPPER
TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY SO EXTENDED CHANCE
POPS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. NO OTHER CHANGES OF
SIGNIFICANCE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

MET/MAV BLEND WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURES IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

FAIR WEATHER MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION, FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUES INTO EARLY MONDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE PATTERN CHANGE WITH INCREASED
BLOCKING, SLOWING STORMS SYSTEMS DOWN. REMAINDER OF EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE IMPACTED BY APPROACH OF SLOW MOVING STORM
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. SLOW SPEED AND SIGNIFICANT TAPPING OF GULF AND
ATLANTIC MOISTURE SUGGEST THIS WILL BE A VERY WET STORM SYSTEM FOR
SOME LOCATIONS. AND THAT COULD WIND UP INCLUDING US.

WPC TEMPS/POPS WERE USED AS PRIMARY INPUT FOR THE GRIDS IN THE
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.

I VERY SELDOM PUT POPS HIGHER THAN 50% OUT IN DAY 7. BUT GIVEN
CONSISTENT MODEL SIGNAL OVER PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL AS WPC
GUIDANCE, TODAY I DID.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE`LL HAVE STRATOCU
INTO THE EVENING HOURS, THEN GO CLEAR. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR TOMORROW.

THE ONLY ISSUE FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL EB THE WIND. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL SLACKEN A BIT FROM THIS AFTERNOON`S LEVELS, BUT STILL
GUST TO 25 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING...VFR EXPECTED.
FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
SAT NGT THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
OPTED TO LOWER THE GALE WARNING ON UPR DEL BAY. HOWEVER, LATEST
OBS WERE CLOSE ENOUGH TO GLW CRITERIA THAT WILL KEEP THE GALE FLAG
FLYING ON THE LOWER BAY A BIT LONGER. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES ON THE
NEAR AND SHORT TERM MARINE. WILL REASSESS FOR THE MRNG PKG
ISSUANCE.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU MON...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. NEAR SCA GUSTS
FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, TEMPERATURES NEVER GOT
A CHANCE TO WARM MUCH AND DEWPOINTS WERE UNABLE TO DROP MUCH UNTIL
VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TOOK PLACE.
THEREFORE, THE WARNING FOR TODAY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

THIS WILL BE DIFFERENT ON THURSDAY. WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED, A DEEPER MIXED LAYER, AND LOWER DEWPOINTS, AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. WINDS MAY BE A
LITTLE WEAKER ON THURSDAY COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY, BUT WE STILL
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS AT LEAST 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH. THE
FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW AS WELL. ALL THREE
CRITERIA (WIND, FUELS, RH`S) SHOULD BE MET, SO WE WILL UPGRADE THE
WATCH TO WARNING ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ430.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT
     TODAY FOR ANZ431.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...KRUZDLO/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/KRUZDLO
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/KRUZDLO/NIERENBERG
FIRE WEATHER...








000
FXUS61 KPHI 240411
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1211 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED WILL BUILD SOUTH AND EAST THEN
ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN WEAKEN FRIDAY NIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATED TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER LOWER OTHERWISE JUST A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS TO TEMPS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION, IS TRYING TO PUSH EAST. THIS HIGH AND THE
SURFACE LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP A TIGHT GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION.

IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH MINIMUM WINDS CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND
20S. ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 20S ON THE LOW END
TO UPPER 30S ON THE HIGH END. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR.

MOST OF THE DEFINED SPRING GROWING AREA, FOR THE THIRD WEEK OF
APRIL, WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT. WE WILL NOT BE
ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING. THERE IS PATCHY FROST IN THE GRIDS, BUT WE
ALSO FEEL THE WIND WILL PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD FROST. A FROST
ADVISORY WILL NOT BE ISSUED EITHER AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AND THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHUTTING OFF, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST, AND IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60 ELSEWHERE. STILL, A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
FRONT.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH. AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED ENOUGH TO KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST...CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LAST TWO GFS
RUNS SUGGEST SOME PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AS UPPER
TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY SO EXTENDED CHANCE
POPS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. NO OTHER CHANGES OF
SIGNIFICANCE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

MET/MAV BLEND WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURES IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

FAIR WEATHER MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION, FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUES INTO EARLY MONDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE PATTERN CHANGE WITH INCREASED
BLOCKING, SLOWING STORMS SYSTEMS DOWN. REMAINDER OF EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE IMPACTED BY APPROACH OF SLOW MOVING STORM
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. SLOW SPEED AND SIGNIFICANT TAPPING OF GULF AND
ATLANTIC MOISTURE SUGGEST THIS WILL BE A VERY WET STORM SYSTEM FOR
SOME LOCATIONS. AND THAT COULD WIND UP INCLUDING US.

WPC TEMPS/POPS WERE USED AS PRIMARY INPUT FOR THE GRIDS IN THE
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.

I VERY SELDOM PUT POPS HIGHER THAN 50% OUT IN DAY 7. BUT GIVEN
CONSISTENT MODEL SIGNAL OVER PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL AS WPC
GUIDANCE, TODAY I DID.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE`LL HAVE STRATOCU
INTO THE EVENING HOURS, THEN GO CLEAR. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR TOMORROW.

THE ONLY ISSUE FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL EB THE WIND. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL SLACKEN A BIT FROM THIS AFTERNOON`S LEVELS, BUT STILL
GUST TO 25 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING...VFR EXPECTED.
FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
SAT NGT THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
OPTED TO LOWER THE GALE WARNING ON UPR DEL BAY. HOWEVER, LATEST
OBS WERE CLOSE ENOUGH TO GLW CRITERIA THAT WILL KEEP THE GALE FLAG
FLYING ON THE LOWER BAY A BIT LONGER. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES ON THE
NEAR AND SHORT TERM MARINE. WILL REASSESS FOR THE MRNG PKG
ISSUANCE.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU MON...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. NEAR SCA GUSTS
FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, TEMPERATURES NEVER GOT
A CHANCE TO WARM MUCH AND DEWPOINTS WERE UNABLE TO DROP MUCH UNTIL
VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TOOK PLACE.
THEREFORE, THE WARNING FOR TODAY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

THIS WILL BE DIFFERENT ON THURSDAY. WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED, A DEEPER MIXED LAYER, AND LOWER DEWPOINTS, AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. WINDS MAY BE A
LITTLE WEAKER ON THURSDAY COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY, BUT WE STILL
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS AT LEAST 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH. THE
FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW AS WELL. ALL THREE
CRITERIA (WIND, FUELS, RH`S) SHOULD BE MET, SO WE WILL UPGRADE THE
WATCH TO WARNING ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ430.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT
     TODAY FOR ANZ431.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...KRUZDLO/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/KRUZDLO
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/KRUZDLO/NIERENBERG
FIRE WEATHER...








000
FXUS61 KPHI 240411
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1211 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED WILL BUILD SOUTH AND EAST THEN
ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN WEAKEN FRIDAY NIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATED TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER LOWER OTHERWISE JUST A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS TO TEMPS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION, IS TRYING TO PUSH EAST. THIS HIGH AND THE
SURFACE LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP A TIGHT GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION.

IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH MINIMUM WINDS CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND
20S. ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 20S ON THE LOW END
TO UPPER 30S ON THE HIGH END. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR.

MOST OF THE DEFINED SPRING GROWING AREA, FOR THE THIRD WEEK OF
APRIL, WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT. WE WILL NOT BE
ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING. THERE IS PATCHY FROST IN THE GRIDS, BUT WE
ALSO FEEL THE WIND WILL PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD FROST. A FROST
ADVISORY WILL NOT BE ISSUED EITHER AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AND THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHUTTING OFF, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST, AND IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60 ELSEWHERE. STILL, A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
FRONT.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH. AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED ENOUGH TO KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST...CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LAST TWO GFS
RUNS SUGGEST SOME PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AS UPPER
TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY SO EXTENDED CHANCE
POPS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. NO OTHER CHANGES OF
SIGNIFICANCE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

MET/MAV BLEND WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURES IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

FAIR WEATHER MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION, FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUES INTO EARLY MONDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE PATTERN CHANGE WITH INCREASED
BLOCKING, SLOWING STORMS SYSTEMS DOWN. REMAINDER OF EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE IMPACTED BY APPROACH OF SLOW MOVING STORM
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. SLOW SPEED AND SIGNIFICANT TAPPING OF GULF AND
ATLANTIC MOISTURE SUGGEST THIS WILL BE A VERY WET STORM SYSTEM FOR
SOME LOCATIONS. AND THAT COULD WIND UP INCLUDING US.

WPC TEMPS/POPS WERE USED AS PRIMARY INPUT FOR THE GRIDS IN THE
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.

I VERY SELDOM PUT POPS HIGHER THAN 50% OUT IN DAY 7. BUT GIVEN
CONSISTENT MODEL SIGNAL OVER PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL AS WPC
GUIDANCE, TODAY I DID.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE`LL HAVE STRATOCU
INTO THE EVENING HOURS, THEN GO CLEAR. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR TOMORROW.

THE ONLY ISSUE FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL EB THE WIND. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL SLACKEN A BIT FROM THIS AFTERNOON`S LEVELS, BUT STILL
GUST TO 25 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING...VFR EXPECTED.
FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
SAT NGT THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
OPTED TO LOWER THE GALE WARNING ON UPR DEL BAY. HOWEVER, LATEST
OBS WERE CLOSE ENOUGH TO GLW CRITERIA THAT WILL KEEP THE GALE FLAG
FLYING ON THE LOWER BAY A BIT LONGER. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES ON THE
NEAR AND SHORT TERM MARINE. WILL REASSESS FOR THE MRNG PKG
ISSUANCE.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU MON...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. NEAR SCA GUSTS
FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, TEMPERATURES NEVER GOT
A CHANCE TO WARM MUCH AND DEWPOINTS WERE UNABLE TO DROP MUCH UNTIL
VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TOOK PLACE.
THEREFORE, THE WARNING FOR TODAY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

THIS WILL BE DIFFERENT ON THURSDAY. WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED, A DEEPER MIXED LAYER, AND LOWER DEWPOINTS, AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. WINDS MAY BE A
LITTLE WEAKER ON THURSDAY COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY, BUT WE STILL
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS AT LEAST 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH. THE
FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW AS WELL. ALL THREE
CRITERIA (WIND, FUELS, RH`S) SHOULD BE MET, SO WE WILL UPGRADE THE
WATCH TO WARNING ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ430.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT
     TODAY FOR ANZ431.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...KRUZDLO/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/KRUZDLO
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/KRUZDLO/NIERENBERG
FIRE WEATHER...








000
FXUS61 KPHI 240152
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
952 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BUILD SOUTH AND EAST THEN ACROSS OUR REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN WEAKEN FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. MORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FORECAST THUS FAR TONIGHT. ONLY MADE
SOME HOURLY CHANGES, THE BIGGEST THING BEING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER THIS EVENING BEFORE CLEARING OVERNIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION, IS TRYING TO PUSH EAST. THIS HIGH AND THE
SURFACE LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP A TIGHT GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION.

IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH MINIMUM WINDS CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND
20S. ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 20S ON THE LOW END
TO UPPER 30S ON THE HIGH END. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR.

MOST OF THE DEFINED SPRING GROWING AREA, FOR THE THIRD WEEK OF
APRIL, WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT. WE WILL NOT BE
ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING. THERE IS PATCHY FROST IN THE GRIDS, BUT WE
ALSO FEEL THE WIND WILL PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD FROST. A FROST
ADVISORY WILL NOT BE ISSUED EITHER AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AND THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHUTTING OFF, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST, AND IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60 ELSEWHERE. STILL, A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
FRONT.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH. AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED ENOUGH TO KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST...CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LAST TWO GFS
RUNS SUGGEST SOME PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AS UPPER
TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY SO EXTENDED CHANCE
POPS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. NO OTHER CHANGES OF
SIGNIFICANCE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

MET/MAV BLEND WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURES IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

FAIR WEATHER MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION, FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUES INTO EARLY MONDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE PATTERN CHANGE WITH INCREASED
BLOCKING, SLOWING STORMS SYSTEMS DOWN. REMAINDER OF EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE IMPACTED BY APPROACH OF SLOW MOVING STORM
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. SLOW SPEED AND SIGNIFICANT TAPPING OF GULF AND
ATLANTIC MOISTURE SUGGEST THIS WILL BE A VERY WET STORM SYSTEM FOR
SOME LOCATIONS. AND THAT COULD WIND UP INCLUDING US.

WPC TEMPS/POPS WERE USED AS PRIMARY INPUT FOR THE GRIDS IN THE
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.

I VERY SELDOM PUT POPS HIGHER THAN 50% OUT IN DAY 7. BUT GIVEN
CONSISTENT MODEL SIGNAL OVER PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL AS WPC
GUIDANCE, TODAY I DID.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE`LL HAVE STRATOCU
INTO THE EVENING HOURS, THEN GO CLEAR. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR TOMORROW.

THE ONLY ISSUE FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL EB THE WIND. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL SLACKEN A BIT FROM THIS AFTERNOON`S LEVELS, BUT STILL
GUST TO 25 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING...VFR EXPECTED.
FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
SAT NGT THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
PER OBSERVATIONS AND FORECASTS SOUNDINGS, A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN
PLACE FOR THE DELAWARE BAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE GALE WARNING WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE OCEAN THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW. ADDITIONAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED THEREAFTER, POSSIBLY
INTO TOMORROW EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU MON...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. NEAR SCA GUSTS
FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, TEMPERATURES NEVER GOT
A CHANCE TO WARM MUCH AND DEWPOINTS WERE UNABLE TO DROP MUCH UNTIL
VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TOOK PLACE.
THEREFORE, THE WARNING FOR TODAY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

THIS WILL BE DIFFERENT ON THURSDAY. WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED, A DEEPER MIXED LAYER, AND LOWER DEWPOINTS, AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. WINDS MAY BE A
LITTLE WEAKER ON THURSDAY COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY, BUT WE STILL
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS AT LEAST 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH. THE
FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW AS WELL. ALL THREE
CRITERIA (WIND, FUELS, RH`S) SHOULD BE MET, SO WE WILL UPGRADE THE
WATCH TO WARNING ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ054-
     055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ001-
     007>010-012>027.
DE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     DEZ001>004.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...KRUZDLO/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/KRUZDLO
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/KRUZDLO
FIRE WEATHER...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 240152
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
952 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BUILD SOUTH AND EAST THEN ACROSS OUR REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN WEAKEN FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. MORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FORECAST THUS FAR TONIGHT. ONLY MADE
SOME HOURLY CHANGES, THE BIGGEST THING BEING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER THIS EVENING BEFORE CLEARING OVERNIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION, IS TRYING TO PUSH EAST. THIS HIGH AND THE
SURFACE LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP A TIGHT GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION.

IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH MINIMUM WINDS CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND
20S. ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 20S ON THE LOW END
TO UPPER 30S ON THE HIGH END. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR.

MOST OF THE DEFINED SPRING GROWING AREA, FOR THE THIRD WEEK OF
APRIL, WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT. WE WILL NOT BE
ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING. THERE IS PATCHY FROST IN THE GRIDS, BUT WE
ALSO FEEL THE WIND WILL PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD FROST. A FROST
ADVISORY WILL NOT BE ISSUED EITHER AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AND THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHUTTING OFF, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST, AND IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60 ELSEWHERE. STILL, A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
FRONT.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH. AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED ENOUGH TO KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST...CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LAST TWO GFS
RUNS SUGGEST SOME PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AS UPPER
TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY SO EXTENDED CHANCE
POPS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. NO OTHER CHANGES OF
SIGNIFICANCE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

MET/MAV BLEND WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURES IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

FAIR WEATHER MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION, FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUES INTO EARLY MONDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE PATTERN CHANGE WITH INCREASED
BLOCKING, SLOWING STORMS SYSTEMS DOWN. REMAINDER OF EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE IMPACTED BY APPROACH OF SLOW MOVING STORM
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. SLOW SPEED AND SIGNIFICANT TAPPING OF GULF AND
ATLANTIC MOISTURE SUGGEST THIS WILL BE A VERY WET STORM SYSTEM FOR
SOME LOCATIONS. AND THAT COULD WIND UP INCLUDING US.

WPC TEMPS/POPS WERE USED AS PRIMARY INPUT FOR THE GRIDS IN THE
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.

I VERY SELDOM PUT POPS HIGHER THAN 50% OUT IN DAY 7. BUT GIVEN
CONSISTENT MODEL SIGNAL OVER PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL AS WPC
GUIDANCE, TODAY I DID.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE`LL HAVE STRATOCU
INTO THE EVENING HOURS, THEN GO CLEAR. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR TOMORROW.

THE ONLY ISSUE FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL EB THE WIND. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL SLACKEN A BIT FROM THIS AFTERNOON`S LEVELS, BUT STILL
GUST TO 25 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING...VFR EXPECTED.
FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
SAT NGT THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
PER OBSERVATIONS AND FORECASTS SOUNDINGS, A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN
PLACE FOR THE DELAWARE BAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE GALE WARNING WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE OCEAN THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW. ADDITIONAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED THEREAFTER, POSSIBLY
INTO TOMORROW EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU MON...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. NEAR SCA GUSTS
FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, TEMPERATURES NEVER GOT
A CHANCE TO WARM MUCH AND DEWPOINTS WERE UNABLE TO DROP MUCH UNTIL
VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TOOK PLACE.
THEREFORE, THE WARNING FOR TODAY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

THIS WILL BE DIFFERENT ON THURSDAY. WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED, A DEEPER MIXED LAYER, AND LOWER DEWPOINTS, AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. WINDS MAY BE A
LITTLE WEAKER ON THURSDAY COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY, BUT WE STILL
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS AT LEAST 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH. THE
FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW AS WELL. ALL THREE
CRITERIA (WIND, FUELS, RH`S) SHOULD BE MET, SO WE WILL UPGRADE THE
WATCH TO WARNING ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ054-
     055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ001-
     007>010-012>027.
DE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     DEZ001>004.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...KRUZDLO/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/KRUZDLO
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/KRUZDLO
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KLWX 240134
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
934 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN ON SUNDAY AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS TO OUR SOUTH. SEVERAL WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY...BRINGING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AT 01Z...1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER GREAT LAKES WHILE
996 MB LOW CONTINUES IN THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS HAS KEPT UP THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA THROUGH
THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH ARE STILL BEING
REPORTED IN FROM DC METRO...AS FAR WEST AS MARTINSBURG...AND
EXTENDING ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. FURTHER WEST...
THERE HAS BEE A QUICK DECOUPLING OF HIGHER WINDS AS THE AIRMASS
STABILIZES DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. LATEST 18Z NAM PROGS 925
MB NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT TO CONTINUE EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THROUGH 09Z...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST OT EAST TO
LESS THAN 20 KT BY 18Z ON THURSDAY.

EXPECTING WINDS WILL ABATE IN MANY LOCATIONS WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR BETWEEN 10 PM AND MIDNIGHT...WITH WINDS STILL A BIT GUSTY
EAST OF I-95 TILL MAYBE AN HOUR LATER.

IN AREAS WHERE WINDS DECOUPLE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...ONE CONCERN
IS THAT WITH THE DRY AIR AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S...ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES...THAT COMBINATION COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME PATCHY FROST IN PLACES MAINLY AWAY FROM DC AND BALTIMORE
METRO AREAS. HOWEVER...LOWERING DEW POINTS OVERNIGHT WILL HELP
KEEP A BIT OF A SPREAD BETWEEN AIR AND DEW PT TEMPS. THUS NOT
EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD FROST CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...
ALTHOUGH A FEW AREA COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FROST IN SOME OF THE
COLDER VALLEYS MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

ON THURS...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED WITH COOLISH TEMPS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. RED FLAG FIRE WEATHER IS CONCERN ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA...FROM CARROLL CO MD ACROSS TO
HARFORD CO AND SOUTH INTO ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTIES IS MORNING NW
WINDS GUSTING TO 20/25 MPH ALONG WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 20S. THUS
HAVE CONVERTED PORTION OF PREVIOUS FIRE WATCH INTO A RED FLAG
WARNING. SPS FOR ENHANCED FIRE DANGER MAY ALSO BE NEEDED FURTHER
WEST. SEE FIRE WX DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS MTNS
FRIDAY MORNING AS A SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. RETURN
FLOW WILL BE USHERING IN WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE AROUND 1.3 INCHES BY FRI
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL FORCING ALONG THE SFC FROPA WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD AND ALONG THE FROPA. SFC HEATING IN
CENTRAL VA WILL LIKELY LEAD TO HEAVIER SHOWERS AND EVEN A ISO
THUNDERSTORM.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRYING WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FROPA
SATURDAY NIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL ROTATE AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES LOW AND MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON
THE SPEED OF THE FROPA TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S TO THE MID 70S
ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS TIME KEPT TEMPS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
AND VALLEY LOCATIONS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. IF THE FROPA MOVES
FASTER TEMPS WILL BE LOWER. LITTLE QPF IF ANY IS EXPECTED WITH
THE FROPA. LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS AND PUT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND NW SUBURBS OF DC AND BALTIMORE SATURDAY
DUE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND LEAD TO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ANCHOR ITSELF OVER NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A LARGE AND SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS.

CLOUDS WILL SPILL OVER THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...STARTING
AS THIN HIGH CIRRUS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BUT LOWERING AND
THICKENING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO MOISTEN.

LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING AND EXTENT OF RAINFALL...AS WELL AS THE TRACK OF
LOW PRESSURE AND THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF A DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT OVER THE CAROLINAS. THIS IS DUE TO A VERY COMPLEX
PATTERN...WITH A STRONG CUTOFF LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
INTERACTING WITH THE LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES...AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PINCHED IN BETWEEN OVER NEW
ENGLAND. THEREFORE...THERE IS A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY IN DETAILS
SUCH AS THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF LOW PRESSURE...UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD
LINGER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NW WINDS CONTINUE GUSTING INTO 20-25KT RANGE AT 01Z. EXPECT SUFFICIENT
AIRMASS DECOUPLING TO TAKE NEAR SFC WIND GUSTS OUT OF THE EQUATION
BY 02Z. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THIS. CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.

ON THUR...VFR WITH N/NW WINDS 10KT WITH GUST TO 25 KT THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC. VCTS IS POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL VA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. SLY WINDS WILL BECOME W-NW BEHIND THE FROPA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY. GUSTS UP TO 30KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15
KNOTS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
CANCELLED GALE AT 6 PM...AND SCA CONTINUES ACROSS ALL MARINE AREA TONIGHT.
ON THUR...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
MAINLY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...TO BELOW SCA LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MAY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED A FEW HRS EARLY ON THU DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY THE AXIS OF THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SLY WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. SCA
MAY BE NEEDED AS GUSTS INCREASE IN THE LOWER BAY AND LOWER TIDAL
POTOMAC. WINDS WILL BECOME WRLY BEFORE ANOTHER FROPA CROSS THE
WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND A GALE WARNING IS EVEN POSSIBLE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS MAY LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. WINDS BECOME LIGHTER LATE
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES NEAR THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE GREATER BALTIMORE AREA THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY. THE
COMBINATION OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO A PARTICULARLY ENHANCED FIRE
WEATHER THREAT FOR THE GREATER BALTIMORE AREA.

A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR AN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS
LIKELY ELSEWHERE SUCH AS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND...EASTERN
WEST VIRGINIA... AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF VIRGINIA. WINDS WILL EASE
SOONER FOR THESE AREAS...SO A RED FLAG WARNING WAS NOT WARRANTED AS
OF THIS TIME FOR THESE AREAS.


&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     MDZ005>007-010-011-014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SMZ
NEAR TERM...SMZ
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...SMZ
MARINE...SMZ
FIRE WEATHER...BAJ









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240106
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
906 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLIDES OVER THE REGION INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...LOCATING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A
SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND DECREASING NW
WINDS. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...ANOTHER
ROUND OF CAA OVERNIGHT WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S
INLAND AND INTO THE LOW 40S NEAR THE COAST. WINDS WILL NOT
COMPLETELY DE-COUPLE TONIGHT...RANGING FROM 5-10 MPH INLAND TO 10
TO 15 NEAR THE COAST. COMBINE LIGHT MIXING WITH RATHER DRY GROUND
CONDITIONS AND LOW DEWPOINTS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD FROST
AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF GRIDS. HOWEVER...PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE IN
SHELTERED LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OFF THE SE COAST THURS AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL DE-AMPLIFY AND EJECT NEWD INTO THE PLAINS
THURS...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO THE MS VALLEY. FLOW
RETURNS TO THE SOUTH LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
OVER THE REGION. MID-LEVEL WLY FLOW OVER THE GULF STATES INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC WILL PREVENT MUCH OF A MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE
REGION....SO DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. NWLY WINDS WILL NOT BE
AS STRONG THURS AFTERNOON...BUT MIN RH VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS-
LOW 20S AND DRY FUELS WILL AGAIN RESULT IN POTENTIAL FIRE WX
CONCERNS. PLEASE REFER TO FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI MORNING AS THE UPPER WAVE REACHES
THE OH VALLEY. QUESTIONS STILL EXIST ON STRENGTH OF THE UPPER WAVE
AS IT CROSSES THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRI AFTERNOON...WITH THE
LATEST GFS TRENDING SHARPER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUNS AND COMING
MORE IN LINE WITH ITS NAM/ECMWF COUNTERPARTS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON-EVENING. SHORT LIVED LOW-LEVEL SW
FLOW WILL BE ABLE TO ADVECT MODEST PRECIP WATER VALUES OF 1-1.25
INCHES INTO THE REGION...BUT DEWPOINTS ONLY PROGGED TO WARM INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 FRI. WITH THE LOCAL AREA IN THE WARM
SECTOR FRI...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
(DEPENDING ON FRONTAL TIMING). COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPS AND
THETA-E ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
(MLCAPE <500 J/KG)...MOSTLY OVER ERN VA/NERN NC. ALSO...LITTLE
INSTABILITY/LIFT PROGGED IN THE MIXED PHASE LAYER SO ANTICIPATE
ONLY ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER IN CONVECTION. JUST LIKE
YESTERDAYS FRONT...BIGGEST LIMITATIONS ARE WSW FLOW AND LOW
DEWPOINTS. SHEAR IS ALSO MARGINAL (~30-35 KT) SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG THE WEAKLY FORCED FRONT. WITH THAT
SAID...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS OVER THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON
ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT. QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN
ONE TO TWO TENTHS.

FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT AS A SECONDARY DRY COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES APPROACHES FROM
THE NW. BREEZY WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW SAT AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES WILL RESULT IN DAYTIME TEMPS AROUND 80 DEGS MOST
LOCALES...EVEN BEHIND FRIDAYS FRONT. NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE AND
MEASURABLE PRECIP FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE
SAT-SAT EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY PATTERN OVER
THE CONUS NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN AN INCREASINGLY WET PERIOD.

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THIS BLOCKY FLOW...MAINLY IN
LOCATION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO BE DRAPPED ACROSS THE RGN
ALONG WITH TIMING OF SEVERAL BATCHES OF MSTR PROGGED TO ROTATE NE
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. WHAT TODAYS MODELS SHOW DIFFERENT FROM YSTRDYS
IS A SLOWER START TO THE PCPN MON...SOMEWHAT HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR
AN EXTNDD PRD OF WETNESS FROM MON NITE THRU WED ALONG WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT WILL LIKELY PLAY HAVOC WITH TEMPS.

KEPT SUN DRY / SEASONABLE AS H5 RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. WARM
FRONT APPRCHS THE RGN FROM THE SW SUN NIGHT...BUT GUID SUGGESTS ANY
MOISTURE STAYS W OF FA THRU 12Z MON. LOWS SAT / SUN NIGHTS IN THE
M40S-L50S. HIGHS SUN 70-75 WEST OF THE BAY...M-U60S ALONG THE COAST.

FORECAST RATHER PROBLEMATIC NEXT WEEK AS THE MODELS DIFFER ON WHERE
THIS FRONTAL BNDRY SETS UP. THIS WILL LIKELY DETERMINE TMPS AND PCPN
TYPES (CONVECTIVE VS STRATIFORMED RAIN). UPR LVL LOW PROGGED TO
SLOWLY EJECT EAST FROM THE NATIONS MID SECTION MON NIGHT ONLY TO THE
OHIO VLLY BY WED. A MOIST E-SE FLOW WILL LIKELY ADD TO THE MOISTURE
CONTENT RESULTING IN PERIODIC CHCS FOR PCPN THRU THE PRD. FRNTL
BNDRY MAY ALSO TRY TO MAKE A RUN FARTHER NORTH BY WED AS SFC LOW
BEGINS TO CROSS THE MTS. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH
ALL THIS OUT TO SEA...BUT THAT MIGHT NOT BE UNTIL THURSDAY. UPSHOT
WILL CARRY HIGH CHC POPS (SHWRS) MON THROUGH WED. TMPS COOLEST
(L-M60S) ALONG THE COAST DUE TO AN ONSHORE FLOW. HIGHS U60S-L70S
WEST OF THE BAY. LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT TO KEEP AT LEAST SOME WIND AT THE
TAF SITES. NW TO N WINDS MAY GUST TO BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AT ORF AND SBY. WINDS DIMINISH OVER INLAND
LOCATIONS TO AROUND 5 KNOTS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR WILL BE PSBL AT THE TAF SITES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND WITH VFR AND DRY WEATHER TAKING
OVER THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE
FOR PCPN BY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
OVERNIGHT...KEEPING NW WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SCA THRESHOLD. WINDS IN
THE RIVERS AND SOUND ARE FORECAST TO BE NO HIGHER THAN 15 KNOTS...
EXCEPT IN THE LOWER JAMES RIVER WHERE SCA ENDS AT MIDNIGHT.

WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY THURSDAY MORNING. SCA DROPS OFF LATE
THURSDAY MORNING IN THE BAY AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS BY 4 PM
THURSDAY.

SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. THESE
SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA. BEHIND THE FRONT...CURRENT INDICATIONS HAVE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TOO WEAK FOR SCA CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS (MIN RH VALUES 15-25%) WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY. THIS WILL
PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY RED FLAG WARNINGS OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
NW WINDS DO INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH DURING
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HOURS ON THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE.
GIVEN HOW LOW RH VALUES WILL BE THURS AFTN COUPLED WITH LOW FUEL
MOISTURE CONDITIONS...HAVE OPTED FOR AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT FOR OUR MD COUNTIES...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MD FIRE
OFFICIALS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...JDM/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MPR/LSA
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 232342
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
742 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BUILD SOUTH AND EAST THEN ACROSS OUR REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN WEAKEN FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. MORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LAST NIGHT`S COLD FRONT IS WELL OFFSHORE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE,
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES, IS TRYING TO PUSH EAST. THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HAS PIVOTED OFF THE COAST AND HAS TAKEN THE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS, WHICH WERE TO TOUR NORTH, WITH IT.

WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES EAST OVERNIGHT, WE`LL STILL HAVE SOME
GRADIENT TO DEAL WITH ALONG WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION.

IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH MINIMUM WINDS CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND
20S. ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 20S ON THE LOW END
TO UPPER 30S ON THE HIGH END. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR.

MOST OF THE DEFINED SPRING GROWING AREA, FOR THE THIRD WEEK OF
APRIL, WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT. WE WILL NOT BE
ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING. THERE IS PATCHY FROST IN THE GRIDS, BUT WE
ALSO FEEL THE WIND WILL PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD FROST. A FROST
ADVISORY WILL NOT BE ISSUED EITHER AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AND THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHUTTING OFF, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST, AND IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60 ELSEWHERE. STILL, A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
FRONT.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH. AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED ENOUGH TO KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST...CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LAST TWO GFS
RUNS SUGGEST SOME PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AS UPPER
TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY SO EXTENDED CHANCE
POPS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. NO OTHER CHANGES OF
SIGNIFICANCE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

MET/MAV BLEND WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURES IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

FAIR WEATHER MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION, FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUES INTO EARLY MONDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE PATTERN CHANGE WITH INCREASED
BLOCKING, SLOWING STORMS SYSTEMS DOWN. REMAINDER OF EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE IMPACTED BY APPROACH OF SLOW MOVING STORM
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. SLOW SPEED AND SIGNIFICANT TAPPING OF GULF AND
ATLANTIC MOISTURE SUGGEST THIS WILL BE A VERY WET STORM SYSTEM FOR
SOME LOCATIONS. AND THAT COULD WIND UP INCLUDING US.

WPC TEMPS/POPS WERE USED AS PRIMARY INPUT FOR THE GRIDS IN THE
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.

I VERY SELDOM PUT POPS HIGHER THAN 50% OUT IN DAY 7. BUT GIVEN
CONSISTENT MODEL SIGNAL OVER PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL AS WPC
GUIDANCE, TODAY I DID.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE`LL HAVE STRATOCU
INTO THE EVENING HOURS, THEN GO CLEAR. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR TOMORROW.

THE ONLY ISSUE FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL EB THE WIND. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL SLACKEN A BIT FROM THIS AFTERNOON`S LEVELS, BUT STILL
GUST TO 25 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING...VFR EXPECTED.
FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
SAT NGT THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
PER OBSERVATIONS AND FORECASTS SOUNDINGS, A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN
PLACE FOR THE DELAWARE BAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE GALE WARNING WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE OCEAN THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW. ADDITIONAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED THEREAFTER, POSSIBLY
INTO TOMORROW EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU MON...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. NEAR SCA GUSTS
FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, TEMPERATURES NEVER GOT
A CHANCE TO WARM MUCH AND DEWPOINTS WERE UNABLE TO DROP MUCH UNTIL
VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TOOK PLACE.
THEREFORE, THE WARNING FOR TODAY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

THIS WILL BE DIFFERENT ON THURSDAY. WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED, A DEEPER MIXED LAYER, AND LOWER DEWPOINTS, AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. WINDS MAY BE A
LITTLE WEAKER ON THURSDAY COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY, BUT WE STILL
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS AT LEAST 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH. THE
FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW AS WELL. ALL THREE
CRITERIA (WIND, FUELS, RH`S) SHOULD BE MET, SO WE WILL UPGRADE THE
WATCH TO WARNING ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ054-
     055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ001-
     007>010-012>027.
DE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     DEZ001>004.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...KRUZDLO
SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/KRUZDLO
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/KRUZDLO
FIRE WEATHER...ROBERTSON/KRUZDLO







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 232341
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
741 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND COOL THROUGH THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ARE WORKING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST AND QUICKLY ERODING THE
STRATOCUMULUS DECK THAT HAS BEEN RESIDENT OVER THE AREA ALL DAY.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE ALL EVENING UNTIL WE BECOME FULLY CLEAR
ACROSS THE BOARD. HIGH CLOUDS WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION SHOULD START TO ADVANCE TOWARD THE
AREA TOWARD MORNING...HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM IS STILL A LONG LONG
WAVE FROM AFFECTING US OTHER THAN WITH CIRRUS. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL BE PRESENT ON THURSDAY AS SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATES. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BY FRIDAY MORNING. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WITH SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME REMAINS INSUFFICIENT
TO PRODUCE THUNDER AND HAVE THEREFORE CONTINUED TO KEEP OUT OF
FORECAST.

A SECONDARY FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW SHIFTING SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS NEW YORK. LIMITED MOISTURE IS DIAGNOSED WITH THIS FEATURE
AND THUS HAVE ADJUSTED TO CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE TO REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS WILL COME WITH A FRIDAY
COLDFRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 232321
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
721 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLIDES OVER THE REGION INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...LOCATING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A
SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND DECREASING NW
WINDS. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...ANOTHER
ROUND OF CAA OVERNIGHT WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S
INLAND AND INTO THE LOW 40S NEAR THE COAST. WINDS WILL NOT
COMPLETELY DE-COUPLE TONIGHT...RANGING FROM 5-10 MPH INLAND TO 10
TO 15 NEAR THE COAST. COMBINE LIGHT MIXING WITH RATHER DRY GROUND
CONDITIONS AND LOW DEWPOINTS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD FROST
AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF GRIDS. HOWEVER...PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE IN
SHELTERED LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OFF THE SE COAST THURS AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL DE-AMPLIFY AND EJECT NEWD INTO THE PLAINS
THURS...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO THE MS VALLEY. FLOW
RETURNS TO THE SOUTH LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
OVER THE REGION. MID-LEVEL WLY FLOW OVER THE GULF STATES INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC WILL PREVENT MUCH OF A MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE
REGION....SO DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. NWLY WINDS WILL NOT BE
AS STRONG THURS AFTERNOON...BUT MIN RH VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS-
LOW 20S AND DRY FUELS WILL AGAIN RESULT IN POTENTIAL FIRE WX
CONCERNS. PLEASE REFER TO FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI MORNING AS THE UPPER WAVE REACHES
THE OH VALLEY. QUESTIONS STILL EXIST ON STRENGTH OF THE UPPER WAVE
AS IT CROSSES THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRI AFTERNOON...WITH THE
LATEST GFS TRENDING SHARPER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUNS AND COMING
MORE IN LINE WITH ITS NAM/ECMWF COUNTERPARTS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON-EVENING. SHORT LIVED LOW-LEVEL SW
FLOW WILL BE ABLE TO ADVECT MODEST PRECIP WATER VALUES OF 1-1.25
INCHES INTO THE REGION...BUT DEWPOINTS ONLY PROGGED TO WARM INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 FRI. WITH THE LOCAL AREA IN THE WARM
SECTOR FRI...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
(DEPENDING ON FRONTAL TIMING). COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPS AND
THETA-E ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
(MLCAPE <500 J/KG)...MOSTLY OVER ERN VA/NERN NC. ALSO...LITTLE
INSTABILITY/LIFT PROGGED IN THE MIXED PHASE LAYER SO ANTICIPATE
ONLY ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER IN CONVECTION. JUST LIKE
YESTERDAYS FRONT...BIGGEST LIMITATIONS ARE WSW FLOW AND LOW
DEWPOINTS. SHEAR IS ALSO MARGINAL (~30-35 KT) SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG THE WEAKLY FORCED FRONT. WITH THAT
SAID...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS OVER THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON
ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT. QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN
ONE TO TWO TENTHS.

FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT AS A SECONDARY DRY COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES APPROACHES FROM
THE NW. BREEZY WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW SAT AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES WILL RESULT IN DAYTIME TEMPS AROUND 80 DEGS MOST
LOCALES...EVEN BEHIND FRIDAYS FRONT. NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE AND
MEASURABLE PRECIP FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE
SAT-SAT EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY PATTERN OVER
THE CONUS NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN AN INCREASINGLY WET PERIOD.

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THIS BLOCKY FLOW...MAINLY IN
LOCATION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO BE DRAPPED ACROSS THE RGN
ALONG WITH TIMING OF SEVERAL BATCHES OF MSTR PROGGED TO ROTATE NE
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. WHAT TODAYS MODELS SHOW DIFFERENT FROM YSTRDYS
IS A SLOWER START TO THE PCPN MON...SOMEWHAT HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR
AN EXTNDD PRD OF WETNESS FROM MON NITE THRU WED ALONG WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT WILL LIKELY PLAY HAVOC WITH TEMPS.

KEPT SUN DRY / SEASONABLE AS H5 RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. WARM
FRONT APPRCHS THE RGN FROM THE SW SUN NIGHT...BUT GUID SUGGESTS ANY
MOISTURE STAYS W OF FA THRU 12Z MON. LOWS SAT / SUN NIGHTS IN THE
M40S-L50S. HIGHS SUN 70-75 WEST OF THE BAY...M-U60S ALONG THE COAST.

FORECAST RATHER PROBLEMATIC NEXT WEEK AS THE MODELS DIFFER ON WHERE
THIS FRONTAL BNDRY SETS UP. THIS WILL LIKELY DETERMINE TMPS AND PCPN
TYPES (CONVECTIVE VS STRATIFORMED RAIN). UPR LVL LOW PROGGED TO
SLOWLY EJECT EAST FROM THE NATIONS MID SECTION MON NIGHT ONLY TO THE
OHIO VLLY BY WED. A MOIST E-SE FLOW WILL LIKELY ADD TO THE MOISTURE
CONTENT RESULTING IN PERIODIC CHCS FOR PCPN THRU THE PRD. FRNTL
BNDRY MAY ALSO TRY TO MAKE A RUN FARTHER NORTH BY WED AS SFC LOW
BEGINS TO CROSS THE MTS. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH
ALL THIS OUT TO SEA...BUT THAT MIGHT NOT BE UNTIL THURSDAY. UPSHOT
WILL CARRY HIGH CHC POPS (SHWRS) MON THROUGH WED. TMPS COOLEST
(L-M60S) ALONG THE COAST DUE TO AN ONSHORE FLOW. HIGHS U60S-L70S
WEST OF THE BAY. LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER OFF SHORE...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE WNW-NW
WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE TO 20G30KT BEFORE TAPERING OFF DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. NW WIND SPEEDS BRIEFLY INCREASE
THU MORNING AND THEN DROP OFF THROUGH THE AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA AND BECOMES LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
BY THU EVENING.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION THU NIGHT...CAUSING NW
WINDS TO BACK AROUND TO THE S-SE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRI EVENING...BRINGING SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO AREA TAF SITES. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NLY AROUND 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
MIXING STILL PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS LATE THIS AFTRN ACROSS THE WATERS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER THE RIVERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND TO SLOWLY DMNSH NXT
FEW HRS...SO SCA WILL CONTINUE THRU 7 PM THERE....10 PM FOR LWR JAMES
IVOF ORF. SECONDARY SURGE NOTED IN MODELS KEEPS SCA HEADLINES FOR
CHES BAY / CSTL WTRS INTO WED MORNING. 25-30 KT GUSTS PSBL AS WELL.

HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA WED AFTRN THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE WED
NITE AND THURSDAY. THIS RESULTS IN DMNSH WINDS AND IMPROVING SEAS.
THUS...SCA`S WILL GRADUALLY END WED...LATEST OVR COASTAL WATERS
WHERE IT MAY TAKE SEAS A FEW HRS LONGER TO DROP BLO 5 FT. SE FLOW
BECOMES S THEN SW AS BY FRI AS RETURN FLOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF ON
BACK SODE OF RETREATING HIGH.

NEXT FRNT PROGGED ACROSS THE RGN FRI NIGHT WITH A SECONDARY TROF
CROSSING THE WATERS SAT. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS
THROUGH SAT...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER WEAKER NW SURGE IS PSBL SAT AFTRN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS (MIN RH VALUES 15-25%) WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY. THIS WILL
PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY RED FLAG WARNINGS OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
NW WINDS DO INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH DURING
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HOURS ON THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE.
GIVEN HOW LOW RH VALUES WILL BE THURS AFTN COUPLED WITH LOW FUEL
MOISTURE CONDITIONS...HAVE OPTED FOR AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT FOR OUR MD COUNTIES...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MD FIRE
OFFICIALS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...JDM/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...MPR
FIRE WEATHER...JDM







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 232203
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
603 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND COOL THROUGH THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ARE WORKING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST AND QUICKLY ERODING THE
STRATOCUMULUS DECK THAT HAS BEEN RESIDENT OVER THE AREA ALL DAY.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE ALL EVENING UNTIL WE BECOME FULLY CLEAR
ACROSS THE BOARD. HIGH CLOUDS WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION SHOULD START TO ADVANCE TOWARD THE
AREA TOWARD MORNING...HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM IS STILL A LONG LONG
WAVE FROM AFFECTING US OTHER THAN WITH CIRRUS. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL BE PRESENT ON THURSDAY AS SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATES. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BY FRIDAY MORNING. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WITH SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME REMAINS INSUFFICIENT
TO PRODUCE THUNDER AND HAVE THEREFORE CONTINUED TO KEEP OUT OF
FORECAST.

A SECONDARY FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW SHIFTING SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS NEW YORK. LIMITED MOISTURE IS DIAGNOSED WITH THIS FEATURE
AND THUS HAVE ADJUSTED TO CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE TO REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR...AND WIND DIMINISHMENT CAN BE EXPECTED
INTO THE EVE AS HIGH PRES BLDS AND COLD ADVCTN EASES. VFR AND LGT
WIND WL CONT THROUGH THURSDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR GENL RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 232203
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
603 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND COOL THROUGH THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ARE WORKING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST AND QUICKLY ERODING THE
STRATOCUMULUS DECK THAT HAS BEEN RESIDENT OVER THE AREA ALL DAY.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE ALL EVENING UNTIL WE BECOME FULLY CLEAR
ACROSS THE BOARD. HIGH CLOUDS WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION SHOULD START TO ADVANCE TOWARD THE
AREA TOWARD MORNING...HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM IS STILL A LONG LONG
WAVE FROM AFFECTING US OTHER THAN WITH CIRRUS. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL BE PRESENT ON THURSDAY AS SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATES. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BY FRIDAY MORNING. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WITH SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME REMAINS INSUFFICIENT
TO PRODUCE THUNDER AND HAVE THEREFORE CONTINUED TO KEEP OUT OF
FORECAST.

A SECONDARY FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW SHIFTING SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS NEW YORK. LIMITED MOISTURE IS DIAGNOSED WITH THIS FEATURE
AND THUS HAVE ADJUSTED TO CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE TO REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR...AND WIND DIMINISHMENT CAN BE EXPECTED
INTO THE EVE AS HIGH PRES BLDS AND COLD ADVCTN EASES. VFR AND LGT
WIND WL CONT THROUGH THURSDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR GENL RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 231943
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
343 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLIDES OVER THE REGION INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...LOCATING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A
SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE EXCEPTION IS
THE ERN SHORE WHERE TEMPS HAVE ONLY WARMED INTO THE LOW 60S. UPPER
TROUGH AXIS HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND DECREASING NW
WINDS. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...ANOTHER
ROUND OF CAA OVERNIGHT WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S
INLAND AND INTO THE LOW 40S NEAR THE COAST. WINDS WILL NOT
COMPLETELY DE-COUPLE TONIGHT...RANGING FROM 5-10 MPH INLAND TO 10
TO 15 NEAR THE COAST. COMBINE LIGHT MIXING WITH RATHER DRY GROUND
CONDITIONS AND LOW DEWPOINTS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD FROST
AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF GRIDS. HOWEVER...PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE IN
SHELTERED LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OFF THE SE COAST THURS AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL DE-AMPLIFY AND EJECT NEWD INTO THE PLAINS
THURS...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO THE MS VALLEY. FLOW
RETURNS TO THE SOUTH LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
OVER THE REGION. MID-LEVEL WLY FLOW OVER THE GULF STATES INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC WILL PREVENT MUCH OF A MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE
REGION....SO DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. NWLY WINDS WILL NOT BE
AS STRONG THURS AFTERNOON...BUT MIN RH VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS-
LOW 20S AND DRY FUELS WILL AGAIN RESULT IN POTENTIAL FIRE WX
CONCERNS. PLEASE REFER TO FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI MORNING AS THE UPPER WAVE REACHES
THE OH VALLEY. QUESTIONS STILL EXIST ON STRENGTH OF THE UPPER WAVE
AS IT CROSSES THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRI AFTERNOON...WITH THE
LATEST GFS TRENDING SHARPER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUNS AND COMING
MORE IN LINE WITH ITS NAM/ECMWF COUNTERPARTS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON-EVENING. SHORT LIVED LOW-LEVEL SW
FLOW WILL BE ABLE TO ADVECT MODEST PRECIP WATER VALUES OF 1-1.25
INCHES INTO THE REGION...BUT DEWPOINTS ONLY PROGGED TO WARM INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 FRI. WITH THE LOCAL AREA IN THE WARM
SECTOR FRI...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
(DEPENDING ON FRONTAL TIMING). COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPS AND
THETA-E ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
(MLCAPE <500 J/KG)...MOSTLY OVER ERN VA/NERN NC. ALSO...LITTLE
INSTABILITY/LIFT PROGGED IN THE MIXED PHASE LAYER SO ANTICIPATE
ONLY ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER IN CONVECTION. JUST LIKE
YESTERDAYS FRONT...BIGGEST LIMITATIONS ARE WSW FLOW AND LOW
DEWPOINTS. SHEAR IS ALSO MARGINAL (~30-35 KT) SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG THE WEAKLY FORCED FRONT. WITH THAT
SAID...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS OVER THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON
ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT. QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN
ONE TO TWO TENTHS.

FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT AS A SECONDARY DRY COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES APPROACHES FROM
THE NW. BREEZY WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW SAT AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES WILL RESULT IN DAYTIME TEMPS AROUND 80 DEGS MOST
LOCALES...EVEN BEHIND FRIDAYS FRONT. NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE AND
MEASURABLE PRECIP FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE
SAT-SAT EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY PATTERN OVER
THE CONUS NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN AN INCREASINGLY WET PERIOD.

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THIS BLOCKY FLOW...MAINLY IN
LOCATION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO BE DRAPPED ACROSS THE RGN
ALONG WITH TIMING OF SEVERAL BATCHES OF MSTR PROGGED TO ROTATE NE
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. WHAT TODAYS MODELS SHOW DIFFERENT FROM YSTRDYS
IS A SLOWER START TO THE PCPN MON...SOMEWHAT HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR
AN EXTNDD PRD OF WETNESS FROM MON NITE THRU WED ALONG WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT WILL LIKELY PLAY HAVOC WITH TEMPS.

KEPT SUN DRY / SEASONABLE AS H5 RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. WARM
FRONT APPRCHS THE RGN FROM THE SW SUN NIGHT...BUT GUID SUGGESTS ANY
MOISTURE STAYS W OF FA THRU 12Z MON. LOWS SAT / SUN NIGHTS IN THE
M40S-L50S. HIGHS SUN 70-75 WEST OF THE BAY...M-U60S ALONG THE COAST.

FORECAST RATHER PROBLEMATIC NEXT WEEK AS THE MODELS DIFFER ON WHERE
THIS FRONTAL BNDRY SETS UP. THIS WILL LIKELY DETERMINE TMPS AND PCPN
TYPES (CONVECTIVE VS STRATIFORMED RAIN). UPR LVL LOW PROGGED TO
SLOWLY EJECT EAST FROM THE NATIONS MID SECTION MON NIGHT ONLY TO THE
OHIO VLLY BY WED. A MOIST E-SE FLOW WILL LIKELY ADD TO THE MOISTURE
CONTENT RESULTING IN PERIODIC CHCS FOR PCPN THRU THE PRD. FRNTL
BNDRY MAY ALSO TRY TO MAKE A RUN FARTHER NORTH BY WED AS SFC LOW
BEGINS TO CROSS THE MTS. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH
ALL THIS OUT TO SEA...BUT THAT MIGHT NOT BE UNTIL THURSDAY. UPSHOT
WILL CARRY HIGH CHC POPS (SHWRS) MON THROUGH WED. TMPS COOLEST
(L-M60S) ALONG THE COAST DUE TO AN ONSHORE FLOW. HIGHS U60S-L70S
WEST OF THE BAY. LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER OFF SHORE...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE WNW-NW
WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE TO 20G30KT BEFORE TAPERING OFF DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. NW WIND SPEEDS BRIEFLY INCREASE
THU MORNING AND THEN DROP OFF THROUGH THE AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA AND BECOMES LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
BY THU EVENING.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION THU NIGHT...CAUSING NW
WINDS TO BACK AROUND TO THE S-SE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRI EVENING...BRINGING SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO AREA TAF SITES. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NLY AROUND 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
MIXING STILL PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS LATE THIS AFTRN ACROSS THE WATERS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER THE RIVERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND TO SLOWLY DMNSH NXT
FEW HRS...SO SCA WILL CONTINUE THRU 7 PM THERE....10 PM FOR LWR JAMES
IVOF ORF. SECONDARY SURGE NOTED IN MODELS KEEPS SCA HEADLINES FOR
CHES BAY / CSTL WTRS INTO WED MORNING. 25-30 KT GUSTS PSBL AS WELL.

HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA WED AFTRN THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE WED
NITE AND THURSDAY. THIS RESULTS IN DMNSH WINDS AND IMPROVING SEAS.
THUS...SCA`S WILL GRADUALLY END WED...LATEST OVR COASTAL WATERS
WHERE IT MAY TAKE SEAS A FEW HRS LONGER TO DROP BLO 5 FT. SE FLOW
BECOMES S THEN SW AS BY FRI AS RETURN FLOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF ON
BACK SODE OF RETREATING HIGH.

NEXT FRNT PROGGED ACROSS THE RGN FRI NIGHT WITH A SECONDARY TROF
CROSSING THE WATERS SAT. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS
THROUGH SAT...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER WEAKER NW SURGE IS PSBL SAT AFTRN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT LATE THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 8PM
FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VA (MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
RIC METRO AREA) AS WELL AS THE LOWER MD EASTER SHORE FOR DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS. WINDS OF 15 TO 20 WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH OVER
INTERIOR VA...WITH WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH
OVER THE ERN SHORE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SPS FOR
INCREASED FIRE DANGER OVER THE SOUTH CONTINUES THROUGH 8 PM AS
WELL WITH WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 MPH.

DRY CONDITIONS (MIN RH VALUES 15-22%) WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE BELOW CRITERIA. THIS WILL PRECLUDE
THE NEED FOR ANY FIRE WX WATCHES/WARNINGS OVER OUR AREA...EXCEPT
FOR THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE WHERE WINDS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED.
HOWEVER...ANYONE PLANNING/INVOLVED IN OUTDOOR BURNING ACTIVITIES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION. WILL THEREFORE MENTION
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS FOR TOMORROW IN THE HWO/FWF.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ012>017-030>032.
VA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ048-049-
     061>064-068>078-081>086-089>091-094-099-100.
     INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ060-
     065>067-079-080-087-088-092-093-095>098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM/SAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...BMD/DAP
MARINE...MPR
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 231939
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
339 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BUILD SOUTH AND EAST THEN ACROSS OUR REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN WEAKEN FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. MORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LAST NIGHT`S COLD FRONT IS WELL OFFSHORE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE,
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES, IS TRYING TO PUSH EAST. THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HAS PIVOTED OFF THE COAST AND HAS TAKEN THE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS, WHICH WERE TO TOUR NORTH, WITH IT.

WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES EAST OVERNIGHT, WE`LL STILL HAVE SOME
GRADIENT TO DEAL WITH ALONG WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION.

IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH MINIMUM WINDS CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND
20S. ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 20S ON THE LOW END
TO UPPER 30S ON THE HIGH END. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR.

MOST OF THE DEFINED SPRING GROWING AREA, FOR THE THIRD WEEK OF
APRIL, WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT. WE WILL NOT BE
ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING. THERE IS PATCHY FROST IN THE GRIDS, BUT WE
ALSO FEEL THE WIND WILL PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD FROST. A FROST
ADVISORY WILL NOT BE ISSUED EITHER AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AND THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHUTTING OFF, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST, AND IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60 ELSEWHERE. STILL, A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
FRONT.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH. AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED ENOUGH TO KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST...CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LAST TWO GFS
RUNS SUGGEST SOME PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AS UPPER
TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY SO EXTENDED CHANCE
POPS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. NO OTHER CHANGES OF
SIGNIFICANCE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

MET/MAV BLEND WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURES IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

FAIR WEATHER MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION, FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUES INTO EARLY MONDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE PATTERN CHANGE WITH INCREASED
BLOCKING, SLOWING STORMS SYSTEMS DOWN. REMAINDER OF EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE IMPACTED BY APPROACH OF SLOW MOVING STORM
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. SLOW SPEED AND SIGNIFICANT TAPPING OF GULF AND
ATLANTIC MOISTURE SUGGEST THIS WILL BE A VERY WET STORM SYSTEM FOR
SOME LOCATIONS. AND THAT COULD WIND UP INCLUDING US.

WPC TEMPS/POPS WERE USED AS PRIMARY INPUT FOR THE GRIDS IN THE
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.

I VERY SELDOM PUT POPS HIGHER THAN 50% OUT IN DAY 7. BUT GIVEN
CONSISTENT MODEL SIGNAL OVER PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL AS WPC
GUIDANCE, TODAY I DID.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE`LL HAVE STRATOCU
INTO THE EVENING HOURS, THEN GO CLEAR. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR TOMORROW.

THE ONLY ISSUE FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL EB THE WIND. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL SLACKEN A BIT FROM THIS AFTERNOON`S LEVELS, BUT STILL
GUST TO 25 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING...VFR EXPECTED.
FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
SAT NGT THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
PER OBSERVATIONS AND FORECASTS SOUNDINGS, A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN
PLACE FOR THE DELAWARE BAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE GALE WARNING WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE OCEAN THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW. ADDITIONAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED THEREAFTER, POSSIBLY
INTO TOMORROW EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU MON...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. NEAR SCA GUSTS
FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM TONIGHT. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IS IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY.

WHILE RH`S WILL PROBABLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE 30-40% RANGE THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO, WINDS AND FINE FUEL MOISTURE ARE WELL WITHIN NEEDED
CRITERIA.

THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE WIND WHICH WILL GUST IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH
RANGE. ANY FIRE THAT GETS STARTED WILL SPREAD QUICKLY UNDER THESE
CONDITIONS.

MORE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TOMORROW. WIND GUSTS WILL BE A BIT
LOWER. HOWEVER, WITH WARMER TEMPS...RH VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20 PCT
IN MANY LOCATIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE RATHER LOW. ALL THREE CRITERIA (WIND, FUELS, RH`S)
SHOULD BE MET WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MAYBE THE LOWER DELMARVA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-070-071-101>106.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010-012>027.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...KRUZDLO
SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/KRUZDLO
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/KRUZDLO
FIRE WEATHER...KRUZDLO






000
FXUS61 KPHI 231939
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
339 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BUILD SOUTH AND EAST THEN ACROSS OUR REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN WEAKEN FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. MORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LAST NIGHT`S COLD FRONT IS WELL OFFSHORE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE,
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES, IS TRYING TO PUSH EAST. THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HAS PIVOTED OFF THE COAST AND HAS TAKEN THE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS, WHICH WERE TO TOUR NORTH, WITH IT.

WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES EAST OVERNIGHT, WE`LL STILL HAVE SOME
GRADIENT TO DEAL WITH ALONG WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION.

IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH MINIMUM WINDS CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND
20S. ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 20S ON THE LOW END
TO UPPER 30S ON THE HIGH END. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR.

MOST OF THE DEFINED SPRING GROWING AREA, FOR THE THIRD WEEK OF
APRIL, WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT. WE WILL NOT BE
ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING. THERE IS PATCHY FROST IN THE GRIDS, BUT WE
ALSO FEEL THE WIND WILL PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD FROST. A FROST
ADVISORY WILL NOT BE ISSUED EITHER AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AND THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHUTTING OFF, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST, AND IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60 ELSEWHERE. STILL, A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
FRONT.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH. AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED ENOUGH TO KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST...CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LAST TWO GFS
RUNS SUGGEST SOME PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AS UPPER
TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY SO EXTENDED CHANCE
POPS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. NO OTHER CHANGES OF
SIGNIFICANCE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

MET/MAV BLEND WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURES IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

FAIR WEATHER MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION, FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUES INTO EARLY MONDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE PATTERN CHANGE WITH INCREASED
BLOCKING, SLOWING STORMS SYSTEMS DOWN. REMAINDER OF EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE IMPACTED BY APPROACH OF SLOW MOVING STORM
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. SLOW SPEED AND SIGNIFICANT TAPPING OF GULF AND
ATLANTIC MOISTURE SUGGEST THIS WILL BE A VERY WET STORM SYSTEM FOR
SOME LOCATIONS. AND THAT COULD WIND UP INCLUDING US.

WPC TEMPS/POPS WERE USED AS PRIMARY INPUT FOR THE GRIDS IN THE
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.

I VERY SELDOM PUT POPS HIGHER THAN 50% OUT IN DAY 7. BUT GIVEN
CONSISTENT MODEL SIGNAL OVER PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL AS WPC
GUIDANCE, TODAY I DID.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE`LL HAVE STRATOCU
INTO THE EVENING HOURS, THEN GO CLEAR. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR TOMORROW.

THE ONLY ISSUE FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL EB THE WIND. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL SLACKEN A BIT FROM THIS AFTERNOON`S LEVELS, BUT STILL
GUST TO 25 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING...VFR EXPECTED.
FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
SAT NGT THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
PER OBSERVATIONS AND FORECASTS SOUNDINGS, A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN
PLACE FOR THE DELAWARE BAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE GALE WARNING WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE OCEAN THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW. ADDITIONAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED THEREAFTER, POSSIBLY
INTO TOMORROW EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU MON...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. NEAR SCA GUSTS
FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM TONIGHT. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IS IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY.

WHILE RH`S WILL PROBABLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE 30-40% RANGE THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO, WINDS AND FINE FUEL MOISTURE ARE WELL WITHIN NEEDED
CRITERIA.

THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE WIND WHICH WILL GUST IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH
RANGE. ANY FIRE THAT GETS STARTED WILL SPREAD QUICKLY UNDER THESE
CONDITIONS.

MORE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TOMORROW. WIND GUSTS WILL BE A BIT
LOWER. HOWEVER, WITH WARMER TEMPS...RH VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20 PCT
IN MANY LOCATIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE RATHER LOW. ALL THREE CRITERIA (WIND, FUELS, RH`S)
SHOULD BE MET WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MAYBE THE LOWER DELMARVA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-070-071-101>106.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010-012>027.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...KRUZDLO
SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/KRUZDLO
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/KRUZDLO
FIRE WEATHER...KRUZDLO







000
FXUS61 KLWX 231902
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
302 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD SUNDAY AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS TO OUR SOUTH. WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY...BRINGING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AT 18Z...A 1025 MB SFC HIGH IS POSITIONED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/
GREAT LAKES WHILE A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A 995 MB SFC LOW NEAR
THE GULF OF MAINE STRETCHES SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SERN ATLANTIC
COAST. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THRU SUNSET AS A RESULT OF A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT OF 60F THIS
AFTN ACROSS NRN VA...ERN WV AND WRN/CENTRAL MD DUE TO CAA AND
STRATOCU THAT HAS BEEN STUBBORN TO ERODE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO DIMINISH
FROM S TO N THRU SUNSET AS SUBSIDENCE STRENGTHENS WHILE THE LOW
PULLS AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST.

HIPRES CONTINUES TO BUILD EWD TNGT WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS REACHING THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE TNGT. WINDS WILL RELAX AFTER SUNSET AND
BECOME LGT ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. DESPITE FCST MIN TEMPS
IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE WRN AND NRN SUBURBS OF DC/BALTIMORE...
WINDS AND DRY AIRMASS SHOULD INHIBIT FROST FORMATION. PATCHY FROST
POSSIBLE TOWARD THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS...WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS
ACTIVE.

HIPRES MOVES OVERHEAD ON THU. THERE IS STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
CONCERNING HOW QUICKLY THE HIGH MOVES IN WHICH WILL PLAY A FACTOR IN
HOW STRONG THE WINDS ARE IN NORTH-CENTRAL MD. THE 12Z GFS WAS
PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH WITH THIS SYSTEM THAT WINDS ARE LGT ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA ALL DAY WHILE THE SLOWER NAM KEEPS WINDS OF 15-25 MPH
TOWARD THE GREATER BALTIMORE METRO. UNDER FULL SUNSHINE...MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA
EXCEPT FOR COOLER SPOTS NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND IN THE MTS.

HIPRES MOVES OFFSHORE THU NGT. SLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AND CLOUDS
SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOPRES SYSTEM THAT WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. OVERRUNNING SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE
DOORSTEP OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT TOWARD DAYBREAK FRI MRNG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS MTNS
FRIDAY MORNING AS A SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. RETURN
FLOW WILL BE USHERING IN WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE AROUND 1.3 INCHES BY FRI
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL FORCING ALONG THE SFC FROPA WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD AND ALONG THE FROPA. SFC HEATING IN
CENTRAL VA WILL LIKELY LEAD TO HEAVIER SHOWERS AND EVEN A ISO
THUNDERSTORM.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRYING WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FROPA
SATURDAY NIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL ROTATE AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES LOW AND MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON
THE SPEED OF THE FROPA TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S TO THE MID 70S
ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS TIME KEPT TEMPS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
AND VALLEY LOCATIONS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. IF THE FROPA MOVES
FASTER TEMPS WILL BE LOWER. LITTLE QPF IF ANY IS EXPECTED WITH
THE FROPA. LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS AND PUT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND NW SUBURBS OF DC AND BALTIMORE SATURDAY
DUE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND LEAD TO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ANCHOR ITSELF OVER NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A LARGE AND SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS.

CLOUDS WILL SPILL OVER THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...STARTING
AS THIN HIGH CIRRUS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BUT LOWERING AND
THICKENING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO MOISTEN.

LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING AND EXTENT OF RAINFALL...AS WELL AS THE TRACK OF
LOW PRESSURE AND THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF A DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT OVER THE CAROLINAS. THIS IS DUE TO A VERY COMPLEX
PATTERN...WITH A STRONG CUTOFF LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
INTERACTING WITH THE LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES...AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PINCHED IN BETWEEN OVER NEW
ENGLAND. THEREFORE...THERE IS A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY IN DETAILS
SUCH AS THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF LOW PRESSURE...UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD
LINGER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BREEZY NW WINDS WINDS 15-20 KT WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND 30 KT
THRU 22Z. WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVE PARTICULARLY AFTER
SUNSET. CU FIELD AROUND 5 KFT QUICKLY DISSIPATING THIS AFTN. NW
WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT TNGT...BECOMING LGT TOWARD DAYBREAK AT CHO/MRB
AS HIPRES SHIFTS OVERHEAD. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WIND FIELD
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN FROM WEST TO EAST ON THU WITH THE HIGH MOVING
OVERHEAD. NW WINDS NEAR 15 KT STILL EXPECTED AT BWI/MTN. LGT SLY
WINDS DEVELOP THU NGT ONCE HIPRES PROGRESSES OFFSHORE.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC. VCTS IS POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL VA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. SLY WINDS WILL BECOME W-NW BEHIND THE FROPA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY. GUSTS UP TO 30KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15
KNOTS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST MARINE OBS INDICATE HIGH-END SCA OCCURRING AREA WIDE. OPTED
TO KEEP THE GALE WARNING GOING WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE LOW TO
MID 30S STILL BEING OBSERVED. WINDS SUBSIDE A BIT AFTER SUNSET BUT
NW WINDS 15-25 KT SHOULD STILL CONTINUE TNGT. SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THU BUT CONDITIONS MORE MARGINAL. SCA MAY BE ABLE TO BE
CANCELLED A FEW HRS EARLY ON THU DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE AXIS
OF THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SLY WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. SCA
MAY BE NEEDED AS GUSTS INCREASE IN THE LOWER BAY AND LOWER TIDAL
POTOMAC. WINDS WILL BECOME WRLY BEFORE ANOTHER FROPA CROSS THE
WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND A GALE WARNING IS EVEN POSSIBLE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS MAY LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. WINDS BECOME LIGHTER LATE
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES NEAR THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THRU 8 PM.
CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPS DOWN AND RH UP SO FAR ACROSS THE NRN
VA...ERN WV AND NRN MD WHERE NW WINDS OF 20-25 MPH HAVE BEEN
GUSTING TO 35 MPH. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ERODE THOUGH AND RH IS NOW
IN THE 30S SO WILL KEEP THE RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT. FARTHER
SOUTH IN CENTRAL VA...RH HAS DROPPED BELOW 30 PERCENT BUT WINDS
ARE GENERALLY AROUND 15 MPH. AFTER COORDINATING WITH VA STATE FIRE
OFFICIALS...WILL ALSO KEEP RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT. WINDS
SUBSIDE TOWARD SUNSET AND RH VALUES WILL INCREASE ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS.

DRIER AIR WILL CAUSE EVEN LOWER RH VALUES THURSDAY...BUT WINDS
WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND WHERE THE WINDS WILL
BE STRONGEST.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DCZ001.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR DCZ001.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ003>007-
     009>011-013-014-016>018-502.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ004>007-009>011-013-014-018.
VA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ025>031-
     036>040-042-050>057-501-502-504.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR VAZ054.
WV...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ050>053-
     055-502-504-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JRK
NEAR TERM...JRK
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...JRK/HAS/DFH
MARINE...JRK/HAS/DFH
FIRE WEATHER...JRK








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 231821
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
221 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH HAS LOCATED OVER THE LOCAL AREA PER
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED
WELL OFFSHORE AS MODIFYING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE A DRY...BREEZY AND
COOL DAY OVER THE LOCAL AREA.

FOR TODAY...SFC LOW WILL PUSH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND EAST. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
RATHER STRONG OVER THE REGION...RESULTING IN SUSTAINED NW WINDS OF
15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE BAY
AND OVER THE ERN SHORE WITH SPEEDS 20 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS TO 35
MPH. COMBINATION OF BREEZY CONDITIONS AND LOW RH WILL RESULT IN A
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION. REMNANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
GOOD MIXING/STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN SOME
AFTERNOON CU...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN LOCAL AREA AND ERN SHORE
WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT. NW FLOW...CAA
WILL RESULT IN TEMPS WARMING INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S...EVEN ALONG
THE COASTAL WATERS THANKS TO NW WINDS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
ERN SHORE WHERE TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOW 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT CHILLY EARLY
MORNING LOWS THU MORNING IN THE MID-UPPER 30S ALONG/W OF I-95 TO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE UNDER CLEAR SKIES. DO NOT
EXPECT ANY FREEZE ISSUES AND PROBABLY TOO DRY FOR MUCH MORE THAN
SOME PATCHY FROST IN SHELTERED LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AGAIN ONCE AGAIN THU AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE
NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC REGION, BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD ERY FRIDAY. HIGHS THURS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S (A
LITTLE COOLER NEAR THE COAST). ONCE AGAIN, MIN RH VALUES FALL INTO
THE 20S THU AFTN BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. NEXT FAST MOVING WAVE
OF MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE PLAINS ON FRI. GFS REMAINS FASTER
WITH BRINGING SYSTEM THROUGH, WITH THE NAM/ECMWF A BIT SHARPER
WITH THE UPPER WAVE...AND HENCE A BIT SLOWER. PUSHED BACK ONSET OF
POP JUST SLIGHTLY AND CONTINUED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THESE STILL DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THIS, EXPECT A SCENARIO
NOT UNLIKE THAT OF EARLIER YESTERDAY (TUESDAY); RATHER MEAGER
INSTABILITY WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR/LAPSE RATES THAT RESULT
IN SOME WEAK DISORGANIZED CONVECTION LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY. WILL
KEEP CHC POPS ALL ZONES FOR SCT SHRAS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
PUSHING THROUGH AT SOME POINT IN THE AFTN/EVENING. WARMER SSW
FLOW SHOULD PUSH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 8O.

CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH POPS QUICKLY ENDING
WEST TO EAST. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 ALONG AREA
COASTLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO EVOLVE INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED...LIKELY RESULTING IN A
COOL/WET PERIOD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TENDS TO STRUGGLE WITH BLOCKY FLOW...AND THIS
IS NO EXCEPTION. TRENDED TOWARD ENSEMBLE AND WPC GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH
OUT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. OVERALL...UPPER PATTERN WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS...HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES
AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER SE CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. WHILE
MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE MODELS...A SECOND (DRY) COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SAT. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING COOLER/DRIER AIR TO THE REGION ON SUN. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION (DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL IT COULD BE FROM THE CAROLINAS NWD TO THE MASON DIXON LINE).
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL
PROGRESS EWD SUN-TUES...TAPPING INTO GULF MOISTURE. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUN NIGHT-TUES BASED ON UNCERTAINTY...BUT
INCREASE TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS TUES NIGHT AS THE UPPER/SFC LOW GETS
CLOSER.

HAVE TRENDED TO THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S SUN-TUES. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER OFF SHORE...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE WNW-NW
WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE TO 20G30KT BEFORE TAPERING OFF DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. NW WIND SPEEDS BRIEFLY INCREASE
THU MORNING AND THEN DROP OFF THROUGH THE AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA AND BECOMES LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
BY THU EVENING.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION THU NIGHT...CAUSING NW
WINDS TO BACK AROUND TO THE S-SE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRI EVENING...BRINGING SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO AREA TAF SITES. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NLY AROUND 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
A SFC COLD FRONT IS JUST STARTING TO TRACK ACROSS THE WATERS FROM
NW TO SE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE
COAST BY SUNRISE. JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG SCA WINDS WILL
OCCUR DUE TO A DECENT SURGE OF COLD AIR FLOWING IN FROM THE NW. AS
A RESULT...NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
30 KT EARLY THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF TODAY
BEFORE TAPERING OFF TONIGHT. THE NW WIND DIRECTION WILL GENERALLY
PREVENT SEAS FROM BUILDING ANY HIGHER THAN 5-6 FT...WITH 3-4 FT
WAVES ON THE BAY (LOCALLY UP TO 5 FT SRN BAY AROUND SUNRISE WITH
THE INITIAL PUSH OF COLD AIR) AND 2-3 FT NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
RIVERS. A SECONDARY...ALBEIT WEAKER...COLD AIR SURGE IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP NW WINDS ON THE BAY/OCEAN TO STAY
AROUND 20-25 KT OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT NRN COASTAL
WATERS. SCA FLAGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR AREA WATERS. PLEASE
REFER TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/WAKEFIELD OR MWWAKQ FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE ON THU AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS. NW WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS BY THU AFTN (AOB 15 KT CHES BAY/AOB 25 KT AND SEAS
BELOW 5 FT)...HOWEVER OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE SOMEWHAT
BREEZY DURING THE DAY BEFORE FINALLY DIMINISHING BY EARLY THU
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THU NIGHT AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. THIS WILL CAUSE NW WINDS
TO BACK AROUND TO THE S-SE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
WATERS FRI EVENING...BRINGING SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE NLY AROUND 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AND WAVES/SEAS WILL AVERAGE 1-2 FT/2-3 FT RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY...AND IN COORDINATION WITH STATE
FIRE OFFICIALS/NEIGHBORING FORECAST OFFICES...A RED FLAG WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VA (MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF RIC METRO AREA) AS WELL AS
THE LOWER MD EASTER SHORE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONGEST
THIS AFTN (20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH) ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM FVX-PTB-LFI...AND THIS IS ESSENTIALLY THE WARNING AREA.
FARTHER SOUTH...WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG (10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 30 MPH)...SO HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE AN SPS FOR INCREASED FIRE
DANGER OVER THESE AREAS TO HIGHLIGHT DRYING FUELS.

DRY CONDITIONS (MIN RH VALUES 20-25%) WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG. THIS
WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY FIRE WX WATCHES/WARNINGS
OVER OUR AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE WHERE WINDS
MAY REMAIN ELEVATED. HOWEVER, ANYONE PLANNING/INVOLVED IN OUTDOOR
BURNING ACTIVITIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION. WILL
THEREFORE MENTION CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS FOR TOMORROW IN THE
HWO/FWF.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ012>017-030>032.
VA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ048-049-
     061>064-068>078-081>086-089>091-094-099-100.
     INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ060-
     065>067-079-080-087-088-092-093-095>098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM/SAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/SAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD/DAP
MARINE...BMD
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231803
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
203 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND COOL THROUGH THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEGUN TO TAKE ITS EFFECTS ON
SLOWLY DECREASING STRATOCU AS SEEN FROM LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE.
ANY SUNSHINE THAT MANAGES TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WILL HAVE LITLE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. A CLEAR SKY IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CIRRUS MOVING OVER THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL BE PRESENT ON THURSDAY AS SUBISDENCE
DOMINATES. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BY FRIDAY MORNING. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WITH SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME REMAINS INSUFFICIENT
TO PRODUCE THUNDER AND HAVE THEREFORE CONTINUED TO KEEP OUT OF
FORECAST.

A SECONDARY FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW SHIFTING SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS NEW YORK. LIMITED MOISTURE IS DIAGNOSED WITH THIS FEATURE
AND THUS HAVE ADJUSTED TO CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE TO REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR...AND WIND DIMINISHMENT CAN BE EXPECTED
INTO THE EVE AS HIGH PRES BLDS AND COLD ADVCTN EASES. VFR AND LGT
WIND WL CONT THROUGH THURSDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR GENL RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231803
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
203 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND COOL THROUGH THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEGUN TO TAKE ITS EFFECTS ON
SLOWLY DECREASING STRATOCU AS SEEN FROM LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE.
ANY SUNSHINE THAT MANAGES TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WILL HAVE LITLE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. A CLEAR SKY IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CIRRUS MOVING OVER THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL BE PRESENT ON THURSDAY AS SUBISDENCE
DOMINATES. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BY FRIDAY MORNING. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WITH SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME REMAINS INSUFFICIENT
TO PRODUCE THUNDER AND HAVE THEREFORE CONTINUED TO KEEP OUT OF
FORECAST.

A SECONDARY FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW SHIFTING SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS NEW YORK. LIMITED MOISTURE IS DIAGNOSED WITH THIS FEATURE
AND THUS HAVE ADJUSTED TO CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE TO REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR...AND WIND DIMINISHMENT CAN BE EXPECTED
INTO THE EVE AS HIGH PRES BLDS AND COLD ADVCTN EASES. VFR AND LGT
WIND WL CONT THROUGH THURSDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR GENL RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231803
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
203 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND COOL THROUGH THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEGUN TO TAKE ITS EFFECTS ON
SLOWLY DECREASING STRATOCU AS SEEN FROM LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE.
ANY SUNSHINE THAT MANAGES TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WILL HAVE LITLE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. A CLEAR SKY IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CIRRUS MOVING OVER THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL BE PRESENT ON THURSDAY AS SUBISDENCE
DOMINATES. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BY FRIDAY MORNING. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WITH SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME REMAINS INSUFFICIENT
TO PRODUCE THUNDER AND HAVE THEREFORE CONTINUED TO KEEP OUT OF
FORECAST.

A SECONDARY FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW SHIFTING SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS NEW YORK. LIMITED MOISTURE IS DIAGNOSED WITH THIS FEATURE
AND THUS HAVE ADJUSTED TO CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE TO REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR...AND WIND DIMINISHMENT CAN BE EXPECTED
INTO THE EVE AS HIGH PRES BLDS AND COLD ADVCTN EASES. VFR AND LGT
WIND WL CONT THROUGH THURSDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR GENL RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231803
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
203 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND COOL THROUGH THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEGUN TO TAKE ITS EFFECTS ON
SLOWLY DECREASING STRATOCU AS SEEN FROM LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE.
ANY SUNSHINE THAT MANAGES TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WILL HAVE LITLE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. A CLEAR SKY IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CIRRUS MOVING OVER THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL BE PRESENT ON THURSDAY AS SUBISDENCE
DOMINATES. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BY FRIDAY MORNING. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WITH SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME REMAINS INSUFFICIENT
TO PRODUCE THUNDER AND HAVE THEREFORE CONTINUED TO KEEP OUT OF
FORECAST.

A SECONDARY FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW SHIFTING SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS NEW YORK. LIMITED MOISTURE IS DIAGNOSED WITH THIS FEATURE
AND THUS HAVE ADJUSTED TO CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE TO REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR...AND WIND DIMINISHMENT CAN BE EXPECTED
INTO THE EVE AS HIGH PRES BLDS AND COLD ADVCTN EASES. VFR AND LGT
WIND WL CONT THROUGH THURSDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR GENL RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 231500
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1100 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH HAS LOCATED OVER THE LOCAL AREA PER
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED
WELL OFFSHORE AS MODIFYING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE A DRY...BREEZY AND
COOL DAY OVER THE LOCAL AREA.

FOR TODAY...SFC LOW WILL PUSH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND EAST. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
RATHER STRONG OVER THE REGION...RESULTING IN SUSTAINED NW WINDS OF
15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE BAY
AND OVER THE ERN SHORE WITH SPEEDS 20 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS TO 35
MPH. COMBINATION OF BREEZY CONDITIONS AND LOW RH WILL RESULT IN A
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION. REMNANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
GOOD MIXING/STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN SOME
AFTERNOON CU...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN LOCAL AREA AND ERN SHORE
WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT. NW FLOW...CAA
WILL RESULT IN TEMPS WARMING INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S...EVEN ALONG
THE COASTAL WATERS THANKS TO NW WINDS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
ERN SHORE WHERE TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOW 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT CHILLY EARLY
MORNING LOWS THU MORNING IN THE MID-UPPER 30S ALONG/W OF I-95 TO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE UNDER CLEAR SKIES. DO NOT
EXPECT ANY FREEZE ISSUES AND PROBABLY TOO DRY FOR MUCH MORE THAN
SOME PATCHY FROST IN SHELTERED LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AGAIN ONCE AGAIN THU AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE
NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC REGION, BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD ERY FRIDAY. HIGHS THURS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S (A
LITTLE COOLER NEAR THE COAST). ONCE AGAIN, MIN RH VALUES FALL INTO
THE 20S THU AFTN BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. NEXT FAST MOVING WAVE
OF MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE PLAINS ON FRI. GFS REMAINS FASTER
WITH BRINGING SYSTEM THROUGH, WITH THE NAM/ECMWF A BIT SHARPER
WITH THE UPPER WAVE...AND HENCE A BIT SLOWER. PUSHED BACK ONSET OF
POP JUST SLIGHTLY AND CONTINUED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THESE STILL DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THIS, EXPECT A SCENARIO
NOT UNLIKE THAT OF EARLIER YESTERDAY (TUESDAY); RATHER MEAGER
INSTABILITY WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR/LAPSE RATES THAT RESULT
IN SOME WEAK DISORGANIZED CONVECTION LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY. WILL
KEEP CHC POPS ALL ZONES FOR SCT SHRAS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
PUSHING THROUGH AT SOME POINT IN THE AFTN/EVENING. WARMER SSW
FLOW SHOULD PUSH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 8O.

CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH POPS QUICKLY ENDING
WEST TO EAST. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 ALONG AREA
COASTLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO EVOLVE INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED...LIKELY RESULTING IN A
COOL/WET PERIOD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TENDS TO STRUGGLE WITH BLOCKY FLOW...AND THIS
IS NO EXCEPTION. TRENDED TOWARD ENSEMBLE AND WPC GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH
OUT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. OVERALL...UPPER PATTERN WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS...HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES
AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER SE CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. WHILE
MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE MODELS...A SECOND (DRY) COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SAT. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING COOLER/DRIER AIR TO THE REGION ON SUN. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION (DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL IT COULD BE FROM THE CAROLINAS NWD TO THE MASON DIXON LINE).
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL
PROGRESS EWD SUN-TUES...TAPPING INTO GULF MOISTURE. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUN NIGHT-TUES BASED ON UNCERTAINTY...BUT
INCREASE TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS TUES NIGHT AS THE UPPER/SFC LOW GETS
CLOSER.

HAVE TRENDED TO THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S SUN-TUES. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SFC COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SRN NJ COAST
INTO THE NC PIEDMONT REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS QUICKLY TURN
TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT AND BECOME GUSTY DUE TO A DECENT SURGE
OF COLD AIR FLOWING IN FROM THE NW. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE
ABOUT 34015G25KT DURING THIS INITIAL PUSH OF COLDER AIR. AS THE
FRONT EXITS THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE
WNW-NW WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE TO 20G30KT FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. NW WIND SPEEDS BRIEFLY INCREASE THU
MORNING AND THEN DROP OFF THROUGH THE AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE AREA AND BECOMES LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY THU
EVENING. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION THU NIGHT...
CAUSING NW WINDS TO BACK AROUND TO THE S-SE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRI AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING
SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO AREA TAF SITES.
BEHIND THIS FRONT...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NLY AROUND 15 KT OR
LESS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
A SFC COLD FRONT IS JUST STARTING TO TRACK ACROSS THE WATERS FROM
NW TO SE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE
COAST BY SUNRISE. JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG SCA WINDS WILL
OCCUR DUE TO A DECENT SURGE OF COLD AIR FLOWING IN FROM THE NW. AS
A RESULT...NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
30 KT EARLY THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF TODAY
BEFORE TAPERING OFF TONIGHT. THE NW WIND DIRECTION WILL GENERALLY
PREVENT SEAS FROM BUILDING ANY HIGHER THAN 5-6 FT...WITH 3-4 FT
WAVES ON THE BAY (LOCALLY UP TO 5 FT SRN BAY AROUND SUNRISE WITH
THE INITIAL PUSH OF COLD AIR) AND 2-3 FT NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
RIVERS. A SECONDARY...ALBEIT WEAKER...COLD AIR SURGE IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP NW WINDS ON THE BAY/OCEAN TO STAY
AROUND 20-25 KT OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT NRN COASTAL
WATERS. SCA FLAGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR AREA WATERS. PLEASE
REFER TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/WAKEFIELD OR MWWAKQ FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE ON THU AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS. NW WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS BY THU AFTN (AOB 15 KT CHES BAY/AOB 25 KT AND SEAS
BELOW 5 FT)...HOWEVER OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE SOMEWHAT
BREEZY DURING THE DAY BEFORE FINALLY DIMINISHING BY EARLY THU
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THU NIGHT AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. THIS WILL CAUSE NW WINDS
TO BACK AROUND TO THE S-SE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
WATERS FRI EVENING...BRINGING SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE NLY AROUND 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AND WAVES/SEAS WILL AVERAGE 1-2 FT/2-3 FT RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY...AND IN COORDINATION WITH STATE
FIRE OFFICIALS/NEIGHBORING FORECAST OFFICES...A RED FLAG WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VA (MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF RIC METRO AREA) AS WELL AS
THE LOWER MD EASTER SHORE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONGEST
THIS AFTN (20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH) ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM FVX-PTB-LFI...AND THIS IS ESSENTIALLY THE WARNING AREA.
FARTHER SOUTH...WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG (10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 30 MPH)...SO HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE AN SPS FOR INCREASED FIRE
DANGER OVER THESE AREAS TO HIGHLIGHT DRYING FUELS.

DRY CONDITIONS (MIN RH VALUES 20-25%) WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG. THIS
WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY FIRE WX WATCHES/WARNINGS
OVER OUR AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE WHERE WINDS
MAY REMAIN ELEVATED. HOWEVER, ANYONE PLANNING/INVOLVED IN OUTDOOR
BURNING ACTIVITIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION. WILL
THEREFORE MENTION CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS FOR TOMORROW IN THE
HWO/FWF.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ012>017-030>032.
VA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ048-049-
     061>064-068>078-081>086-089>091-094-099-100.
     INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ060-
     065>067-079-080-087-088-092-093-095>098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM/SAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/SAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231429
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1029 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST BUT DUE TO COLD NORTHWEST
FLOW...STRATOCU CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE BY THE AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR BEGINS
TO ENTRAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL DESPITE SUN
EXPOSURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY SURFACE HIGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
AN OPTIMAL SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR TEMPS
TO DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL.

TEMPS MODERATE THURSDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WEAK WAA.

FAST MOVING COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE BOUNDARY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OCCLUDED SYSTEM WHICH
WILL SWING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. DUE TO THE
OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM...THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT
MUCH COOLER THEN THE AIR MASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT.
THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT...BUT TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY FRIDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SECONDARY FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL HAVE MUCH STRONGER CAA BEHIND IT. WILL INCLUDE CHANCE POPS
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE COLD FRONT
INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY SATURDAY MORNING...SHOWERS SHOULD BE
ON THE DECLINE...ALTHOUGH WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUDS SHOULD THEN
DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING...WITH PRIMARILY
MVFR CIGS. FKL SHOULD DROP TO IFR...WITH ZZV/MGW POSSIBLY REMAINING
VFR THROUGHOUT. CIGS SHOULD THEN SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY...WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR BY SUNSET. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
15-20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS SEEING WINDS GUST TO 20-25 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL DROP BELOW 10 KTS BY THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY...BEFORE BOUNDARY
WILL BRING RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231429
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1029 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST BUT DUE TO COLD NORTHWEST
FLOW...STRATOCU CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE BY THE AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR BEGINS
TO ENTRAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL DESPITE SUN
EXPOSURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY SURFACE HIGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
AN OPTIMAL SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR TEMPS
TO DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL.

TEMPS MODERATE THURSDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WEAK WAA.

FAST MOVING COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE BOUNDARY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OCCLUDED SYSTEM WHICH
WILL SWING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. DUE TO THE
OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM...THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT
MUCH COOLER THEN THE AIR MASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT.
THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT...BUT TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY FRIDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SECONDARY FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL HAVE MUCH STRONGER CAA BEHIND IT. WILL INCLUDE CHANCE POPS
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE COLD FRONT
INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY SATURDAY MORNING...SHOWERS SHOULD BE
ON THE DECLINE...ALTHOUGH WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUDS SHOULD THEN
DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING...WITH PRIMARILY
MVFR CIGS. FKL SHOULD DROP TO IFR...WITH ZZV/MGW POSSIBLY REMAINING
VFR THROUGHOUT. CIGS SHOULD THEN SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY...WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR BY SUNSET. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
15-20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS SEEING WINDS GUST TO 20-25 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL DROP BELOW 10 KTS BY THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY...BEFORE BOUNDARY
WILL BRING RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231429
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1029 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST BUT DUE TO COLD NORTHWEST
FLOW...STRATOCU CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE BY THE AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR BEGINS
TO ENTRAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL DESPITE SUN
EXPOSURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY SURFACE HIGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
AN OPTIMAL SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR TEMPS
TO DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL.

TEMPS MODERATE THURSDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WEAK WAA.

FAST MOVING COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE BOUNDARY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OCCLUDED SYSTEM WHICH
WILL SWING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. DUE TO THE
OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM...THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT
MUCH COOLER THEN THE AIR MASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT.
THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT...BUT TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY FRIDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SECONDARY FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL HAVE MUCH STRONGER CAA BEHIND IT. WILL INCLUDE CHANCE POPS
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE COLD FRONT
INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY SATURDAY MORNING...SHOWERS SHOULD BE
ON THE DECLINE...ALTHOUGH WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUDS SHOULD THEN
DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING...WITH PRIMARILY
MVFR CIGS. FKL SHOULD DROP TO IFR...WITH ZZV/MGW POSSIBLY REMAINING
VFR THROUGHOUT. CIGS SHOULD THEN SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY...WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR BY SUNSET. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
15-20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS SEEING WINDS GUST TO 20-25 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL DROP BELOW 10 KTS BY THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY...BEFORE BOUNDARY
WILL BRING RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231429
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1029 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST BUT DUE TO COLD NORTHWEST
FLOW...STRATOCU CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE BY THE AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR BEGINS
TO ENTRAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL DESPITE SUN
EXPOSURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY SURFACE HIGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
AN OPTIMAL SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR TEMPS
TO DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL.

TEMPS MODERATE THURSDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WEAK WAA.

FAST MOVING COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE BOUNDARY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OCCLUDED SYSTEM WHICH
WILL SWING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. DUE TO THE
OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM...THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT
MUCH COOLER THEN THE AIR MASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT.
THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT...BUT TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY FRIDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SECONDARY FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL HAVE MUCH STRONGER CAA BEHIND IT. WILL INCLUDE CHANCE POPS
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE COLD FRONT
INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY SATURDAY MORNING...SHOWERS SHOULD BE
ON THE DECLINE...ALTHOUGH WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUDS SHOULD THEN
DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING...WITH PRIMARILY
MVFR CIGS. FKL SHOULD DROP TO IFR...WITH ZZV/MGW POSSIBLY REMAINING
VFR THROUGHOUT. CIGS SHOULD THEN SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY...WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR BY SUNSET. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
15-20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS SEEING WINDS GUST TO 20-25 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL DROP BELOW 10 KTS BY THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY...BEFORE BOUNDARY
WILL BRING RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPHI 231358
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
958 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THIS
MORNING WILL BUILD SOUTH AND EAST THEN ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY AND THEN WEAKEN FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL
SET UP FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AS
LOW PRESSURE OFF OF NEW ENG AND ITS ASSOCD CDFNT SLOWLY MOVE EWD.
THE GRAD BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL KEEP A TIGHT NWLY GRADIENT
OVER THE REGION. THE WIND COULD GUST UPWARDS OF 35 MPH. TEMPS
WILL AVERAGE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO HIT 60 DEGREES. TEMP GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD
ALONG THE COAST AND NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. TODAY
SHOULD BE GENLY PRECIP FREE, BUT A SHWR COULD NOT BE RULED OUT,
MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE NWLY FLOW THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY TWD THE REGION TONIGHT.
EXPECT A GENLY CLEAR SKY.  THE WIND WILL SUBSIDE A BIT BUT REMAIN
GUSTY AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY THRU THE
WHOLE NIGHT.  THERE WILL BE AT LEAST PATCHY FROST IN MANY AREAS AS
TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S.  CONDS WILL HAVE TO BE EXAMINED FOR PSBL
FROST HEADLINES.  ONE NEGATING FACTOR IS THE WIND, BUT REGARDLESS IT
WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER (ESPECIALLY FOR LATE APRIL) WITH THE GUST NW
WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. IT
WILL MOVE EAST AND CREST ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC THU NIGHT AND
INTO FRI MORNING. IT WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE LATER FRI. THU THRU
EARLY FRI WILL HAVE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS THU WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE RATHER LOW THU AND WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
EARLY...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME FIRE WX CONCERNS. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ADDED FOR THURSDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FRI AND FRI NIGHT. AN ATTACHED FRONT WILL CROSS
OUR REGION FRI NIGHT. WE HAVE ONLY MADE SMALL CHANGES TO THE ALREADY
CHC POP FCST FOR THESE PERIODS. INSTABILITY FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT LOOKS
LOW...SO NO THUNDER WILL BE MENTIONED ATTM. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRI
AND SAT WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WITH UPPER 60S/LOW 70S OVER
MOST AREAS...COOLER OVER THE SRN POCONOS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE NRN AREAS SAT...BUT OVERALL A FAIR WEATHER DAY EXPECTED.

FAIR WEATHER IS ALSO EXPECTED FOR SAT NIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA AND SETTLES OVER THE AREA. IT
WILL BE BREEZY AND DRY AS WELL. HIGHS SUN WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
THAN SAT WITH READINGS ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THIS WILL BE THE
START OF AN UNSETTLED PERIOD FOR MUCH OF EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE HAVE
CARRIED SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS MON AND THEN MOSTLY CHC POPS FOR THE
REST OF THE FCST. WPC OFFERED SOME HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR LATE
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT THESE WERE TRIMMED TO BETTER ALIGN
WITH OTHER OFFICES. TEMPS MON-WED WILL BE JUST A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PD AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST BEHIND LAST NIGHT`S CFP.

THE PGRAD BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOW PRES OFF OF NEW ENG WILL KEEP A
STRONG AND GUSTY NW WIND OVER THE AREA TODAY.  THE WIND COULD GUST
UPWARDS OF 30 KTS DURG THE DAY BEFORE SUBSIDING A BIT IN THE EVENING
AND PSBLY SOME MORE OVERNIGHT.  STILL THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
10-15 KT RANGE THE WHOLE TIME...AT LEAST.

OUTLOOK...
THU THRU FRI MORNING...VFR EXPECTED.
FRI AFTERNOON THRU SAT...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
SAT NGT THRU SUN...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
PER OBSERVATIONS AND FORECASTS SOUNDINGS, A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE DELAWARE BAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE GALE WARNING
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE OCEAN THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
THU...GALES ON THE OCEAN WILL DIMINISH AND SCA FLAGS WILL BE
  AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY...ON DEL BAY ALSO.
THU NIGHT THRU SUN...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. NEAR SCA GUSTS FRI
  AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM TONIGHT. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IS IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY.

RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT TODAY, AT LEAST IN SOME
AREAS, BUT FUEL MOISTURE VALUES WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM AS
OVERNIGHT RAINFALL WAS LIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE WIND WHICH
WILL GUST IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE. ANY FIRE THAT GETS STARTED
WILL SPREAD QUICKLY UNDER THESE CONDITIONS.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. WIND
GUSTS SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER. HOWEVER, WITH WARMER TEMPS...RH
VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20 PCT IN MANY LOCATIONS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER
LOW... SO INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECASTS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-070-071-101>106.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010-012>027.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/KRUZDLO
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...NIERENBERG/O`HARA/KRUZDLO
FIRE WEATHER...NIERENBERG/KRUZDLO




000
FXUS61 KPHI 231358
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
958 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THIS
MORNING WILL BUILD SOUTH AND EAST THEN ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY AND THEN WEAKEN FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL
SET UP FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AS
LOW PRESSURE OFF OF NEW ENG AND ITS ASSOCD CDFNT SLOWLY MOVE EWD.
THE GRAD BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL KEEP A TIGHT NWLY GRADIENT
OVER THE REGION. THE WIND COULD GUST UPWARDS OF 35 MPH. TEMPS
WILL AVERAGE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO HIT 60 DEGREES. TEMP GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD
ALONG THE COAST AND NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. TODAY
SHOULD BE GENLY PRECIP FREE, BUT A SHWR COULD NOT BE RULED OUT,
MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE NWLY FLOW THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY TWD THE REGION TONIGHT.
EXPECT A GENLY CLEAR SKY.  THE WIND WILL SUBSIDE A BIT BUT REMAIN
GUSTY AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY THRU THE
WHOLE NIGHT.  THERE WILL BE AT LEAST PATCHY FROST IN MANY AREAS AS
TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S.  CONDS WILL HAVE TO BE EXAMINED FOR PSBL
FROST HEADLINES.  ONE NEGATING FACTOR IS THE WIND, BUT REGARDLESS IT
WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER (ESPECIALLY FOR LATE APRIL) WITH THE GUST NW
WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. IT
WILL MOVE EAST AND CREST ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC THU NIGHT AND
INTO FRI MORNING. IT WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE LATER FRI. THU THRU
EARLY FRI WILL HAVE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS THU WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE RATHER LOW THU AND WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
EARLY...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME FIRE WX CONCERNS. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ADDED FOR THURSDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FRI AND FRI NIGHT. AN ATTACHED FRONT WILL CROSS
OUR REGION FRI NIGHT. WE HAVE ONLY MADE SMALL CHANGES TO THE ALREADY
CHC POP FCST FOR THESE PERIODS. INSTABILITY FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT LOOKS
LOW...SO NO THUNDER WILL BE MENTIONED ATTM. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRI
AND SAT WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WITH UPPER 60S/LOW 70S OVER
MOST AREAS...COOLER OVER THE SRN POCONOS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE NRN AREAS SAT...BUT OVERALL A FAIR WEATHER DAY EXPECTED.

FAIR WEATHER IS ALSO EXPECTED FOR SAT NIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA AND SETTLES OVER THE AREA. IT
WILL BE BREEZY AND DRY AS WELL. HIGHS SUN WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
THAN SAT WITH READINGS ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THIS WILL BE THE
START OF AN UNSETTLED PERIOD FOR MUCH OF EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE HAVE
CARRIED SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS MON AND THEN MOSTLY CHC POPS FOR THE
REST OF THE FCST. WPC OFFERED SOME HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR LATE
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT THESE WERE TRIMMED TO BETTER ALIGN
WITH OTHER OFFICES. TEMPS MON-WED WILL BE JUST A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PD AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST BEHIND LAST NIGHT`S CFP.

THE PGRAD BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOW PRES OFF OF NEW ENG WILL KEEP A
STRONG AND GUSTY NW WIND OVER THE AREA TODAY.  THE WIND COULD GUST
UPWARDS OF 30 KTS DURG THE DAY BEFORE SUBSIDING A BIT IN THE EVENING
AND PSBLY SOME MORE OVERNIGHT.  STILL THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
10-15 KT RANGE THE WHOLE TIME...AT LEAST.

OUTLOOK...
THU THRU FRI MORNING...VFR EXPECTED.
FRI AFTERNOON THRU SAT...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
SAT NGT THRU SUN...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
PER OBSERVATIONS AND FORECASTS SOUNDINGS, A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE DELAWARE BAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE GALE WARNING
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE OCEAN THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
THU...GALES ON THE OCEAN WILL DIMINISH AND SCA FLAGS WILL BE
  AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY...ON DEL BAY ALSO.
THU NIGHT THRU SUN...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. NEAR SCA GUSTS FRI
  AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM TONIGHT. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IS IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY.

RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT TODAY, AT LEAST IN SOME
AREAS, BUT FUEL MOISTURE VALUES WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM AS
OVERNIGHT RAINFALL WAS LIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE WIND WHICH
WILL GUST IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE. ANY FIRE THAT GETS STARTED
WILL SPREAD QUICKLY UNDER THESE CONDITIONS.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. WIND
GUSTS SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER. HOWEVER, WITH WARMER TEMPS...RH
VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20 PCT IN MANY LOCATIONS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER
LOW... SO INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECASTS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-070-071-101>106.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010-012>027.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/KRUZDLO
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...NIERENBERG/O`HARA/KRUZDLO
FIRE WEATHER...NIERENBERG/KRUZDLO





000
FXUS61 KLWX 231351
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
951 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AND ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVERHEAD SUNDAY AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS TO OUR SOUTH. WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY...BRINGING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1023 MB SFC HIGH LOCATED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES WHILE A
COLD FRONT STETCHES FROM A 995 MB SFC LOW OVER MAINE SOUTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST. A RELATIVELY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN A BREEZY DAY. STRONG
CAA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW HAS RESULTED IN A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER UP TO 800 MB AS SEEN ON THE 12Z IAD RAOB SOUNDING. ACCORDINGLY
WINDS WILL PICK UP QUICKLY THIS MRNG...RESULTING IN GUSTS OF 30-40
MPH FOR MUCH OF TDA.

CAA PATTERN HAS PRODUCED STRATOCU AS MOISTURE AT THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER IS TRAPPED BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FIELD. UPDATED
SKY COVER FCST GRIDS USING THE RH FIELD AT THE TOP OF THE MIXING
LAYER FROM THE RAP TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EVOLUTION OF STRATOCU TDA.
PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF THE CWA THIS MRNG BEFORE CLOUDS ERODE FROM S TO N INTO THE
AFTN. LOWERED MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES NEAR THE MASON-DIXON
LINE TO THE UPPER 50S...WHERE CLOUD COVER MAY HOLD ON THE LONGEST.
OTHERWISE...OFFICIAL MAX TEMP FCST IN LOW TO MID 60S FALLS ON THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH STRONG HEATING AND DOWNSLOPING FLOW.

ONCE THE UPPER VORT COMPLETELY MOVES OFF THE COAST SLOWLY TNGT...
WINDS WILL DROP OFF OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE REGION. NERN MD
WILL REMAIN THE SOME OF THE BREEZIER CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT...
SINCE THE RIBBON OF UPPER VORTICITY WILL STILL BE HANGING OUT OVER
DELMARVA - VERY SLOWLY DRIFTING TOWARD THE COAST. A DAY`S WORTH OF
DRY AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP BACK DOWN AGAIN INTO THE M-U30S
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. A FEW AREAS OF THE CWA LIKE THE APLCNS AND
SHEN VLY WILL SEE TEMPS HOVERING AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY WHILE AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD DURING THIS TIME. PLENTY OF
SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SUNSHINE. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO...RANGING FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. SOME AREAS
ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND THE VALLEYS OF EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA
MAY REACH INTO THE 70S.

THE SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA...BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY. MIN TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS TO
NEAR 50 IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY...BRINGING A FEW
SHOWERS WITH IT. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED SO ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH.

THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR DRY
CONDITIONS...BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SO MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. SATURDAY WILL TURN OUT
MILD AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY DUE TO A DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...BRINGING DRY AND
COOLER CONDITIONS.

CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST
NEXT WEEK. A WARM FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE REGION DURING THIS
TIME AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. CERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN WX STORY TDA FOR THE AREA
TERMINALS. NW WINDS HAVE QUICKLY PICKED UP THIS MRNG WITH GUSTS
25-35 KT ALREADY BEING REPORTED AT 13Z. EXPECT GUSTS OF THIS
MAGNITUDE TO CONTINUE THRU AFTN BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TOWARD
SUNSET THIS EVE. BKN STRATOCU FIELD BETWEEN 4-5 KFT THIS MRNG WILL
IMPACT THE TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR CHO BEFORE ERODING FROM S TO N
THIS AFTN.NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT CONTINUES TNGT...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER WINDS AT DCA-BWI-MTN.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS THURSDAY ACROSS
THE EASTERN TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ACROSS KMRB AND KCHO.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TERMINALS THURSDAY EVENING WILL SHIFT EAST
OVERNIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
DURING THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS
FRIDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS LIKELY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND IT WILL STALL OUT JUST TO THE SOUTH FOR SUNDAY. VFR
CONDITONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS HAS PRODUCED WIDESPREAD
20-30 KT WIND GUSTS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS TO 35 KT. GALE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS TDA. MIXING WILL
DEEPEN EVEN FURTHER THIS AFTN BUT MODELS SHOW THE WIND FIELD
AT THE TOP OF THIS MIXING LAYER WEAKENING A BIT. MAY BE ABLE TO
CANCEL THE GALE WARNING A FEW HRS EARLY THIS AFTN WITH HIGH END
SCA WINDS FAVORED. SCA CONTINUES TNGT.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS THURSDAY. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH BY THURSDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER...THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL LIKELY PASS THROUGH THE WATERS SATURDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT
TO THE SOUTH FOR SUNDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS REPLACED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR MUCH OF
THE MID ATLC REGION FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM TDA. NW WINDS OF 20-25 MPH
WILL GUST FREQUENTLY BETWEEN 35 AND 40 MPH. MRNG UPDATE TO THE
FCST KEEP MAX TEMPS AT OR EVEN A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW PREV FCST
BUT DEWPOINTS WERE ALSO LOWERED THIS AFTN AS DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN
TO THE SFC. PAST STUDIES HAVE SHOWN DEWPOINTS AT THE TOP OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TO BE REPRESENTATIVE OF SFC DEWPOINTS DURING THE
PEAK HEATINGS HRS IN SITUATIONS LIKE TDA. 12Z IAD RAOB SOUNDING
SHOWS DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. THIS WILL RESULT IN RH VALUES BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT
ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE AREA. FUEL MOISTURE OBS YDA WERE BETWEEN
5-8 PERCENT. ONLY LOCALIZED AREAS RECEIVED A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN
INCH OF RAINFALL YESTERDAY...WHICH WAS NOT ENOUGH TO ALTER THE
FUEL MOISTURE.

WINDS SUBSIDE TOWARD SUNSET AND RH VALUES WILL INCREASE ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

DRIER AIR WILL CAUSE EVEN LOWER RH VALUES THURSDAY...BUT WINDS
WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND WHERE THE WINDS WILL
BE STRONGEST.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY...BRINGING A FEW
SHOWERS BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY AVERAGE OUT TO BE LIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL CAUSE TIDAL BLOWOUT. THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT NOT AS STRONG.
HOWEVER...TIDAL BLOWOUT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME
AS WELL.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DCZ001.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR DCZ001.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ003>007-
     009>011-013-014-016>018-502.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ004>007-009>011-013-014-018.
VA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ025>031-
     036>040-042-050>057-501-502-504.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR VAZ054.
WV...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ050>053-
     055-502-504-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL/JRK
NEAR TERM...JRK/GMS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL/GMS
AVIATION...JRK/BJL
MARINE...JRK/BJL
FIRE WEATHER...JRK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JRK/BJL








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231136
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
736 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE POST DAWN UPDATE. THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE
BY THE AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR BEGINS TO ENTRAIN ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL DESPITE SUN EXPOSURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY SURFACE HIGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
AN OPTIMAL SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR TEMPS
TO DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL.

TEMPS MODERATE THURSDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WEAK WAA.

FAST MOVING COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE BOUNDARY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OCCLUDED SYSTEM WHICH
WILL SWING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. DUE TO THE
OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM...THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT
MUCH COOLER THEN THE AIR MASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT.
THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT...BUT TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY FRIDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SECONDARY FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL HAVE MUCH STRONGER CAA BEHIND IT. WILL INCLUDE CHANCE POPS
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE COLD FRONT
INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY SATURDAY MORNING...SHOWERS SHOULD BE
ON THE DECLINE...ALTHOUGH WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUDS SHOULD THEN
DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING...WITH PRIMARILY
MVFR CIGS. FKL SHOULD DROP TO IFR...WITH ZZV/MGW POSSIBLY REMAINING
VFR THROUGHOUT. CIGS SHOULD THEN SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY...WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR BY SUNSET. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
15-20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS SEEING WINDS GUST TO 20-25 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL DROP BELOW 10 KTS BY THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY...BEFORE BOUNDARY
WILL BRING RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231136
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
736 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE POST DAWN UPDATE. THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE
BY THE AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR BEGINS TO ENTRAIN ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL DESPITE SUN EXPOSURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY SURFACE HIGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
AN OPTIMAL SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR TEMPS
TO DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL.

TEMPS MODERATE THURSDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WEAK WAA.

FAST MOVING COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE BOUNDARY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OCCLUDED SYSTEM WHICH
WILL SWING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. DUE TO THE
OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM...THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT
MUCH COOLER THEN THE AIR MASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT.
THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT...BUT TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY FRIDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SECONDARY FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL HAVE MUCH STRONGER CAA BEHIND IT. WILL INCLUDE CHANCE POPS
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE COLD FRONT
INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY SATURDAY MORNING...SHOWERS SHOULD BE
ON THE DECLINE...ALTHOUGH WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUDS SHOULD THEN
DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING...WITH PRIMARILY
MVFR CIGS. FKL SHOULD DROP TO IFR...WITH ZZV/MGW POSSIBLY REMAINING
VFR THROUGHOUT. CIGS SHOULD THEN SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY...WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR BY SUNSET. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
15-20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS SEEING WINDS GUST TO 20-25 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL DROP BELOW 10 KTS BY THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY...BEFORE BOUNDARY
WILL BRING RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230828
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
428 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY SWINGS EAST OF THE AREA AFTER DAWN. THE
COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY RECEDE NORTHWARD LATER THIS
MORNING...EXITING INTO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH THE
WAA ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. A RETURN OF SUN WILL HELP WITH THE TEMPS...BUT THEY WILL
STILL END UP BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY SURFACE HIGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
AN OPTIMAL SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR TEMPS
TO DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL.

TEMPS MODERATE THURSDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WEAK WAA.

FAST MOVING COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE BOUNDARY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OCCLUDED SYSTEM WHICH
WILL SWING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. DUE TO THE
OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM...THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT
MUCH COOLER THEN THE AIR MASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT.
THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT...BUT TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY FRIDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SECONDARY FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL HAVE MUCH STRONGER CAA BEHIND IT. WILL INCLUDE CHANCE POPS
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE COLD FRONT
INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY SATURDAY MORNING...SHOWERS SHOULD BE
ON THE DECLINE...ALTHOUGH WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUDS SHOULD THEN
DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING...WITH PRIMARILY
MVFR CIGS. FKL SHOULD DROP TO IFR...WITH ZZV/MGW POSSIBLY REMAINING
VFR THROUGHOUT. CIGS SHOULD THEN SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY...WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR BY SUNSET. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
15-20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS SEEING WINDS GUST TO 20-25 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL DROP BELOW 10 KTS BY THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY...BEFORE BOUNDARY
WILL BRING RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230828
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
428 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY SWINGS EAST OF THE AREA AFTER DAWN. THE
COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY RECEDE NORTHWARD LATER THIS
MORNING...EXITING INTO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH THE
WAA ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. A RETURN OF SUN WILL HELP WITH THE TEMPS...BUT THEY WILL
STILL END UP BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY SURFACE HIGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
AN OPTIMAL SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR TEMPS
TO DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL.

TEMPS MODERATE THURSDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WEAK WAA.

FAST MOVING COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE BOUNDARY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OCCLUDED SYSTEM WHICH
WILL SWING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. DUE TO THE
OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM...THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT
MUCH COOLER THEN THE AIR MASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT.
THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT...BUT TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY FRIDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SECONDARY FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL HAVE MUCH STRONGER CAA BEHIND IT. WILL INCLUDE CHANCE POPS
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE COLD FRONT
INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY SATURDAY MORNING...SHOWERS SHOULD BE
ON THE DECLINE...ALTHOUGH WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUDS SHOULD THEN
DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING...WITH PRIMARILY
MVFR CIGS. FKL SHOULD DROP TO IFR...WITH ZZV/MGW POSSIBLY REMAINING
VFR THROUGHOUT. CIGS SHOULD THEN SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY...WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR BY SUNSET. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
15-20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS SEEING WINDS GUST TO 20-25 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL DROP BELOW 10 KTS BY THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY...BEFORE BOUNDARY
WILL BRING RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230813
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
413 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES SFC COLD FRONT SLOWLY DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. EXPECT QUICK
CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH SUNRISE AS WINDS VEER AROUND TO
THE NW, AND WILL BECOME GUSTY LATER TODAY.

MODIFYING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NW TODAY. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE, WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH ON THE ERN SHORE AND 25-35 MPH ELSEWHERE. A
MAINLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKY EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH A FEW SCATTERED CU WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE ERN SHORE DUE TO COLD POOL ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. PLENTY OF SUN, DRYING FUELS AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL ADD UP TO A POTENTIALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY,.
HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA,
MAINLY FROM RIC NORTH, WITH AN SPS FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER
OUTLOOKED OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

FOR TEMPS, LOCAL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER, WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING
INTO THE UPR 20S/LOW 30S (YIELDING MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE MID
20S INLAND) AND WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT, EXPECT MAXIMA
MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND ALL ZONES (NOT MUCH
DIFFERENCE AT THE COAST DUE TO STRONG NW FLOW). HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT CHILLY EARLY MORNING LOWS
THU MORNING IN THE MID-UPPER 30S ALONG/W OF I-95 TO THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
FREEZE ISSUES AND PROBABLY TOO DRY FOR MUCH MORE THAN SOME PATCHY
FROST IN SHELTERED LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AGAIN ONCE AGAIN THU AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE
NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC REGION, BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD ERY FRIDAY. HIGHS THURS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S (A
LITTLE COOLER NEAR THE COAST). ONCE AGAIN, MIN RH VALUES FALL INTO
THE 20S THU AFTN BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. NEXT FAST MOVING WAVE
OF MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE PLAINS ON FRI. GFS REMAINS FASTER
WITH BRINGING SYSTEM THROUGH, WITH THE NAM/ECMWF A BIT SHARPER
WITH THE UPPER WAVE...AND HENCE A BIT SLOWER. PUSHED BACK ONSET OF
POP JUST SLIGHTLY AND CONTINUED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THESE STILL DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THIS, EXPECT A SCENARIO
NOT UNLIKE THAT OF EARLIER YESTERDAY (TUESDAY); RATHER MEAGER
INSTABILITY WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR/LAPSE RATES THAT RESULT
IN SOME WEAK DISORGANIZED CONVECTION LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY. WILL
KEEP CHC POPS ALL ZONES FOR SCT SHRAS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
PUSHING THROUGH AT SOME POINT IN THE AFTN/EVENING. WARMER SSW
FLOW SHOULD PUSH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 8O.

CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH POPS QUICKLY ENDING
WEST TO EAST. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 ALONG AREA
COASTLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO EVOLVE INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED...LIKELY RESULTING IN A
COOL/WET PERIOD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TENDS TO STRUGGLE WITH BLOCKY FLOW...AND THIS
IS NO EXCEPTION. TRENDED TOWARD ENSEMBLE AND WPC GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH
OUT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. OVERALL...UPPER PATTERN WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS...HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES
AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER SE CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. WHILE
MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE MODELS...A SECOND (DRY) COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SAT. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING COOLER/DRIER AIR TO THE REGION ON SUN. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION (DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL IT COULD BE FROM THE CAROLINAS NWD TO THE MASON DIXON LINE).
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL
PROGRESS EWD SUN-TUES...TAPPING INTO GULF MOISTURE. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUN NIGHT-TUES BASED ON UNCERTAINTY...BUT
INCREASE TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS TUES NIGHT AS THE UPPER/SFC LOW GETS
CLOSER.

HAVE TRENDED TO THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S SUN-TUES. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SFC COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SRN NJ COAST
INTO THE NC PIEDMONT REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS QUICKLY TURN
TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT AND BECOME GUSTY DUE TO A DECENT SURGE
OF COLD AIR FLOWING IN FROM THE NW. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE
ABOUT 34015G25KT DURING THIS INITIAL PUSH OF COLDER AIR. AS THE
FRONT EXITS THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE
WNW-NW WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE TO 20G30KT FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. NW WIND SPEEDS BRIEFLY INCREASE THU
MORNING AND THEN DROP OFF THROUGH THE AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE AREA AND BECOMES LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY THU
EVENING. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION THU NIGHT...
CAUSING NW WINDS TO BACK AROUND TO THE S-SE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRI AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING
SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO AREA TAF SITES.
BEHIND THIS FRONT...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NLY AROUND 15 KT OR
LESS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
A SFC COLD FRONT IS JUST STARTING TO TRACK ACROSS THE WATERS FROM
NW TO SE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE
COAST BY SUNRISE. JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG SCA WINDS WILL
OCCUR DUE TO A DECENT SURGE OF COLD AIR FLOWING IN FROM THE NW. AS
A RESULT...NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
30 KT EARLY THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF TODAY
BEFORE TAPERING OFF TONIGHT. THE NW WIND DIRECTION WILL GENERALLY
PREVENT SEAS FROM BUILDING ANY HIGHER THAN 5-6 FT...WITH 3-4 FT
WAVES ON THE BAY (LOCALLY UP TO 5 FT SRN BAY AROUND SUNRISE WITH
THE INITIAL PUSH OF COLD AIR) AND 2-3 FT NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
RIVERS. A SECONDARY...ALBEIT WEAKER...COLD AIR SURGE IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP NW WINDS ON THE BAY/OCEAN TO STAY
AROUND 20-25 KT OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT NRN COASTAL
WATERS. SCA FLAGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR AREA WATERS. PLEASE
REFER TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/WAKEFIELD OR MWWAKQ FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE ON THU AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS. NW WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS BY THU AFTN (AOB 15 KT CHES BAY/AOB 25 KT AND SEAS
BELOW 5 FT)...HOWEVER OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE SOMEWHAT
BREEZY DURING THE DAY BEFORE FINALLY DIMINISHING BY EARLY THU
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THU NIGHT AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. THIS WILL CAUSE NW WINDS
TO BACK AROUND TO THE S-SE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
WATERS FRI EVENING...BRINGING SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE NLY AROUND 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AND WAVES/SEAS WILL AVERAGE 1-2 FT/2-3 FT RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GIVEN THE EXPECTED DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LATER TODAY...AND
IN COORDINATION WITH STATE FIRE OFFICIALS/NEIGHBORING FORECAST
OFFICES, A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VA (MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF RIC METRO AREA, AS WELL AS THE LOWER MD EASTER
SHORE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONGEST THIS AFTN (20-25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH) ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM FVX-PTB-
LFI...AND THIS IS ESSENTIALLY THE WARNING AREA. FARTHER
SOUTH...WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG (10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30
MPH)...SO HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE AN SPS FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER
OVER THESE AREAS TO HIGHLIGHT DRYING FUELS.

DRY CONDITIONS (MIN RH VALUES 20-25%) WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG. THIS
WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY FIRE WX WATCHES/WARNINGS
OVER OUR AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE WHERE WINDS
MAY REMAIN ELEVATED. HOWEVER, ANYONE PLANNING/INVOLVED IN OUTDOOR
BURNING ACTIVITIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION. WILL
THEREFORE MENTION CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS FOR TOMORROW IN THE
HWO/FWF.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ021>025.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR NCZ012>017-030>032.
VA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ048-049-061>064-068>078-081>086-089>091-094-099-100.
     INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR VAZ060-065>067-079-080-087-088-092-093-095>098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB/MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD
FIRE WEATHER...AKQ









000
FXUS61 KLWX 230755
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
355 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AND ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVERHEAD SUNDAY AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS TO OUR SOUTH. WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY...BRINGING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRIER AND COOLER AIR BEING USHERED IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT
MOVED THRU EARLIER IN THE OVERNIGHT. GUSTY WINDS SWEEPING ACROSS THE
REGION...AS THEY WILL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. A POTENT VORT LOBE
SWINGING DOWN ACROSS THE MASON-DIXON LINE IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS
FEATURE WILL BE MIXING-DOWN THE STRONGER WIND GUSTS IN THE COMING
HRS...HELPING TO DROP TEMPS DOWN INTO THE M-U40S BY THE PREDAWN HRS
WHICH IS ACTUALLY RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL AVG FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

AS SKIES CLEAR OUT AND THE SUN COMES OUT IN THE COMING HRS...MORE OF
THE HIGHER WIND GUSTS WILL SPREAD OUT ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER
VORT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST NEAR DAWN...W/ THE SUBSIDENCE REGION
SETTING UP DIRECTLY OVER ERN MD AND TAPERING OFF INTO NRN VA. TEMPS
WILL EVENTUALLY CLIMB BACK INTO THE L-M60S THIS AFTN...BUT WINDS IN
THE 20-30MPH RANGE WILL KEEP AT LEAST SOME CHILL FACTOR IN THE AIR
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. SOME OF THE HIGHER GUSTS WILL PEAK NEAR 40MPH
DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTN DURING PEAK HEATING.

THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS...LOW RHS AND LOW FUEL MOISTURES WILL
CREATE THE ELEVATED WILDFIRE DANGER TODAY - SO A RED FLAG WARNING
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAYTIME HRS TODAY.
SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW.

ONCE THE UPPER VORT COMPLETELY MOVES OFF THE COAST SLOWLY INTO THU
MRNG...WINDS WILL DROP OFF OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE REGION. NERN MD
WILL REMAIN THE SOME OF THE BREEZIER CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT...SINCE
THE RIBBON OF UPPER VORTICITY WILL STILL BE HANGING OUT OVER
DELMARVA - VERY SLOWLY DRIFTING TOWARD THE COAST. A DAY`S WORTH OF
DRY AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP BACK DOWN AGAIN INTO THE M-U30S FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS. A FEW AREAS OF THE CWA LIKE THE APLCNS AND SHEN VLY
WILL SEE TEMPS HOVERING AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY WHILE AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD DURING THIS TIME. PLENTY OF
SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SUNSHINE. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO...RANGING FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. SOME AREAS
ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND THE VALLEYS OF EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA
MAY REACH INTO THE 70S.

THE SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA...BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY. MIN TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS TO
NEAR 50 IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY...BRINGING A FEW
SHOWERS WITH IT. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED SO ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH.

THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR DRY
CONDITIONS...BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SO MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. SATURDAY WILL TURN OUT
MILD AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY DUE TO A DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...BRINGING DRY AND
COOLER CONDITIONS.

CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST
NEXT WEEK. A WARM FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE REGION DURING THIS
TIME AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. CERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE DURATION OF THE CURRENT TAF
PERIOD. MID-20KT RANGE GUSTS ALREADY HAVE BEEN SPREADING OVER THE
AREA IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HRS...W/ A SOLID 12-OR-SO MORE HRS TO GO
W/ THE STRONGER TIER OF WINDS. AFTER SUNRISE...GUSTS AOB 30KT WILL
BEGIN SPREADING OVER THE AREA - ESPEC OVER NRN MD AND JUST INTO NRN
VA...ALL OUT OF THE NW TODAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DROP OFF TO
15-20KT LATER THIS EVE AFTER SUNSET BUT STAY BREEZY OVER THE I-95
CORRIDOR AND EAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS FOR THE AREA WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE LATER TONIGHT.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS THURSDAY ACROSS
THE EASTERN TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ACROSS KMRB AND KCHO.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TERMINALS THURSDAY EVENING WILL SHIFT EAST
OVERNIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
DURING THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS
FRIDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS LIKELY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND IT WILL STALL OUT JUST TO THE SOUTH FOR SUNDAY. VFR
CONDITONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS IN THE HIGHER-END SCA CRITERIA RANGE ARE
APPEARING OVER THE WATER...MAINLY OVER THE NRN MD BAY OVERNIGHT.
MORE MARGINAL GUSTS EXIST OVER THE REST OF THE BAY/TP RVR. WINDS
BEHIND A COLD FRONT HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HRS. ONCE THE
SUN RISES IN A FEW HRS...HIGHER WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
ENTIRETY OVER THE MD BAY AND TP RVR AND GALE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO
APPEAR FOR MUCH OF THE DAYTIME HRS. HEADING INTO THE LATE EVE
HRS...WINDS WILL DROP OFF TO A GENERAL 15-20KT RANGE.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS THURSDAY. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH BY THURSDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER...THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL LIKELY PASS THROUGH THE WATERS SATURDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT
TO THE SOUTH FOR SUNDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS REPLACED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR MUCH OF
THE MID ATLC REGION TODAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE STRONGER OVER NRN AND
ERN MD...THOUGH THE LOWEST RHS/HIGHEST TEMPS WILL BE OVER THE LOWER
NRN VA PIEDMONT. ONLY LOCALIZED AREAS RECEIVED A COUPLE/FEW TENTHS
OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL YESTERDAY...WHICH WILL FAIRLY QUICKLY BE
NULLIFIED BY THE RELENTLESS AND DRY NW WINDS FOR MOST OF TODAY.
GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30MPH HAVE ALREADY BEEN SPREADING ACROSS THE
REGION IN THE PAST FEW HRS...GETTING STRONGER AND DRIER AFTER
SUNRISE. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE 60S TODAY AND DEWPOINTS WILL DROP
TO THE U20S/L30S. LATER THIS EVE...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DROP DOWN TO
MORE OF A 10-15MPH BREEZE.

DRIER AIR WILL CAUSE EVEN LOWER RH VALUES THURSDAY...BUT WINDS
WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND WHERE THE WINDS WILL
BE STRONGEST.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY...BRINGING A FEW
SHOWERS BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY AVERAGE OUT TO BE LIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND THIS WILL CAUSE
TIDAL BLOWOUT. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY...BUT NOT AS STRONG. HOWEVER...TIDAL BLOWOUT CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME AS WELL.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR DCZ001.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR DCZ001.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-502.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ004>007-009>011-013-014-018.
VA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR VAZ025>031-036>040-042-050>057-501-502-504.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR VAZ054.
WV...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR WVZ050>053-055-502-504-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL/GMS
AVIATION...BJL/GMS
MARINE...BJL/GMS
FIRE WEATHER...BJL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...GMS/BJL








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230752
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
352 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES SFC COLD FRONT SLOWLY DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. EXPECT QUICK
CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH SUNRISE AS WINDS VEER AROUND TO
THE NW, AND WILL BECOME GUSTY LATER TODAY.

MODIFYING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NW TODAY. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE, WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH ON THE ERN SHORE AND 25-35 MPH ELSEWHERE. A
MAINLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKY EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH A FEW SCATTERED CU WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE ERN SHORE DUE TO COLD POOL ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. PLENTY OF SUN, DRYING FUELS AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL ADD UP TO A POTENTIALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY,.
HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA,
MAINLY FROM RIC NORTH, WITH AN SPS FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER
OUTLOOKED OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

FOR TEMPS, LOCAL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER, WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING
INTO THE UPR 20S/LOW 30S (YIELDING MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE MID
20S INLAND) AND WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT, EXPECT MAXIMA
MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND ALL ZONES (NOT MUCH
DIFFERENCE AT THE COAST DUE TO STRONG NW FLOW). HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT CHILLY EARLY MORNING LOWS
THU MORNING IN THE MID-UPPER 30S ALONG/W OF I-95 TO THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
FREEZE ISSUES AND PROBABLY TOO DRY FOR MUCH MORE THAN SOME PATCHY
FROST IN SHELTERED LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

DRY AGAIN ONCE AGAIN THU AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE
NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC REGION, BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD ERY FRIDAY. HIGHS THURS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S (A
LITTLE COOLER NEAR THE COAST). ONCE AGAIN, MIN RH VALUES FALL INTO
THE 20S THU AFTN BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. NEXT FAST MOVING WAVE
OF MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE PLAINS ON FRI. GFS REMAINS FASTER
WITH BRINGING SYSTEM THROUGH, WITH THE NAM/ECMWF A BIT SHARPER
WITH THE UPPER WAVE...AND HENCE A BIT SLOWER. PUSHED BACK ONSET OF
POP JUST SLIGHTLY AND CONTINUED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THESE STILL DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THIS, EXPECT A SCENARIO
NOT UNLIKE THAT OF EARLIER YESTERDAY (TUESDAY); RATHER MEAGER
INSTABILITY WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR/LAPSE RATES THAT RESULT
IN SOME WEAK DISORGANIZED CONVECTION LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY. WILL
KEEP CHC POPS ALL ZONES FOR SCT SHRAS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
PUSHING THROUGH AT SOME POINT IN THE AFTN/EVENING. WARMER SSW
FLOW SHOULD PUSH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 8O.

CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH POPS QUICKLY ENDING
WEST TO EAST. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 ALONG AREA
COASTLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO EVOLVE INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED...LIKELY RESULTING IN A
COOL/WET PERIOD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TENDS TO STRUGGLE WITH BLOCKY FLOW...AND THIS
IS NO EXCEPTION. TRENDED TOWARD ENSEMBLE AND WPC GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH
OUT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. OVERALL...UPPER PATTERN WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS...HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES
AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER SE CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. WHILE
MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE MODELS...A SECOND (DRY) COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SAT. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING COOLER/DRIER AIR TO THE REGION ON SUN. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION (DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL IT COULD BE FROM THE CAROLINAS NWD TO THE MASON DIXON LINE).
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL
PROGRESS EWD SUN-TUES...TAPPING INTO GULF MOISTURE. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUN NIGHT-TUES BASED ON UNCERTAINTY...BUT
INCREASE TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS TUES NIGHT AS THE UPPER/SFC LOW GETS
CLOSER.

HAVE TRENDED TO THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S SUN-TUES. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 23Z...PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS HAVE PRACTICALLY DISSIPATED AND DID
NOT INCLUDE ANY PCPN IN THE TAFS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WAS MOVING
THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS AND IS FORECAST TO REACH RIC/SBY SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ECG AROUND 09Z/5AM EDT. BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTY NW OR N WINDS WILL
IMMEDIATELY FOLLOW THE FRONT. WINDS DIMINISH SOME (EXCEPT AT ORF)
A COUPLE OF HOURS FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THEN INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTS MAY REACH OVER 30 KNOTS
AT SBY AND AROUND 25 KNOTS AT THE OTHER TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY WITH SCT SHWRS/TSTMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY BUT THE WEEKEND
IS FORECAST TO BE DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS ALIGNED ALONG THE WATERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT LOCATES OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS.
S-SW WINDS CURRENTLY OVER THE WATERS AVERAGING 10-15 KT WITH WAVES
1-2 FT AND SEAS 3-4 FT. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS THIS
EVENING AS A STRONG NW SURGE COMMENCES. PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS BTWN BUILDING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. 925MB WINDS INCREASE TO 35-40
KT AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHARPEN. THE RESULT WILL BE SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS...INCLUDING THE RIVERS AND SOUND.
DECIDED TO NOT GO LOW-END GALE BASED ON THE LIMITED STRENGTH OF
THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COOL WATERS. HOWEVER...AN OCCASIONAL
GUST TO 35 KT IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN BAY AND NRN
COASTAL WATERS. TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AT KSBY YIELDS GUST TO ONLY
30-33 KT. WILL MONITOR FUTURE OBS/MODEL TRENDS TO SEE IF GALE
HEADLINES ARE NEEDED. REGARDLESS...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
RAPIDLY AROUND MIDNIGHT. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT IN THE
BAY...2-3 FT IN THE RIVERS AND 2 FT IN THE SOUND. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 5-8 FT...HIGHEST IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD SWD OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS AS SCA CONDITIONS
PERSIST THRU THE DAY. THE HIGH WILL NUDGE OVER THE WATERS WED
NIGHT...ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO
DIMINISH. SCA HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION
THURS...LOCATING OFFSHORE LATE THURS. FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE
SOUTH...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT LATE THURS. SCA HEADLINES
FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND DROP OFF LATE WEDS...LOWER JAMES AND BAY
THURS MORNING.

A WEAKER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS FRI AFTERNOON WITH A
SECOND COLDER FRONT CROSSING THE WATERS SATURDAY. SCA CONDITIONS
MAY BE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GIVEN THE EXPECTED DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LATER TODAY...AND
IN COORDINATION WITH STATE FIRE OFFICIALS/NEIGHBORING FORECAST
OFFICES, A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VA (MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
RIC METRO AREA, AS WELL AS THE LOWER MD EASTER SHORE. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONGEST THIS AFTN (20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
35-40 MPH) ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM FVX-PTB-LFI...AND THIS
IS ESSENTIALLY THE WARNING AREA. FARTHER SOUTH...WINDS WILL NOT
BE AS STRONG (10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH)...SO HAVE OPTED TO
ISSUE AN SPS FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER OVER THESE AREAS TO
HIGHLIGHT DRYING FUELS.

DRY CONDITIONS (MIN RH VALUES 20-25%) WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG. THIS
WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY FIRE WX WATCHES/WARNINGS
OVER OUR AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE WHERE WINDS
MAY REMAIN ELEVATED. HOWEVER, ANYONE PLANNING/INVOLVED IN OUTDOOR
BURNING ACTIVITIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION. WILL
THEREFORE MENTION CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS FOR TOMORROW IN THE
HWO/FWF.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ021>025.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR NCZ012>017-030>032.
VA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ048-049-061>064-068>078-081>086-089>091-094-099-100.
     INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR VAZ060-065>067-079-080-087-088-092-093-095>098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB/MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 230747
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
347 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THIS
MORNING WILL BUILD SOUTH AND EAST THEN ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY AND THEN WEAKEN FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL
SET UP FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AS
LOW PRESSURE OFF OF NEW ENG AND ITS ASSOCD CDFNT SLOWLY MOVE EWD.
THE GRAD BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL KEEP A TIGHT NWLY WIND
OVER THE REGION.  THE WIND COULD GUST UPWARDS OF 30 MPH AND HIGHER.
TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO HIT 60 DEGREES.  TODAY SHOULD BE GENLY PRECIP FREE,
BUT A SHWR COULD NOT BE RULED OUT, MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
THE NWLY FLOW

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY TWD THE REGION TONIGHT.
EXPECT A GENLY CLEAR SKY.  THE WIND WILL SUBSIDE A BIT BUT REMAIN
GUSTY AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY THRU THE
WHOLE NIGHT.  THERE WILL BE AT LEAST PATCHY FROST IN MANY AREAS AS
TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S.  CONDS WILL HAVE TO BE EXAMINED FOR PSBL
FROST HEADLINES.  ONE NEGATING FACTOR IS THE WIND, BUT REGARDLESS IT
WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER (ESPECIALLY FOR LATE APRIL) WITH THE GUST NW
WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. IT
WILL MOVE EAST AND CREST ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC THU NIGHT AND
INTO FRI MORNING. IT WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE LATER FRI. THU THRU
EARLY FRI WILL HAVE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS THU WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE RATHER LOW THU AND WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
EARLY...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME FIRE WX CONCERNS. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ADDED FOR THURSDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FRI AND FRI NIGHT. AN ATTACHED FRONT WILL CROSS
OUR REGION FRI NIGHT. WE HAVE ONLY MADE SMALL CHANGES TO THE ALREADY
CHC POP FCST FOR THESE PERIODS. INSTABILITY FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT LOOKS
LOW...SO NO THUNDER WILL BE MENTIONED ATTM. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRI
AND SAT WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WITH UPPER 60S/LOW 70S OVER
MOST AREAS...COOLER OVER THE SRN POCONOS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE NRN AREAS SAT...BUT OVERALL A FAIR WEATHER DAY EXPECTED.

FAIR WEATHER IS ALSO EXPECTED FOR SAT NIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA AND SETTLES OVER THE AREA. IT
WILL BE BREEZY AND DRY AS WELL. HIGHS SUN WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
THAN SAT WITH READINGS ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THIS WILL BE THE
START OF AN UNSETTLED PERIOD FOR MUCH OF EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE HAVE
CARRIED SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS MON AND THEN MOSTLY CHC POPS FOR THE
REST OF THE FCST. WPC OFFERED SOME HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR LATE
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT THESE WERE TRIMMED TO BETTER ALIGN
WITH OTHER OFFICES. TEMPS MON-WED WILL BE JUST A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PD AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST BEHIND LAST NIGHT`S CFP.

THE PGRAD BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOW PRES OFF OF NEW ENG WILL KEEP A
STRONG AND GUSTY NW WIND OVER THE AREA TODAY.  THE WIND COULD GUST
UPWARDS OF 30 KTS DURG THE DAY BEFORE SUBSIDING A BIT IN THE EVENING
AND PSBLY SOME MORE OVERNIGHT.  STILL THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
10-15 KT RANGE THE WHOLE TIME...AT LEAST.

OUTLOOK...
THU THRU FRI MORNING...VFR EXPECTED.
FRI AFTERNOON THRU SAT...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
SAT NGT THRU SUN...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNG WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE OCEAN AND SCA ON THE
BAY.  WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ESPECIALLY THE LWR BAY FOR AN UPGRADE TO
GLW IF NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...
THU...GALES ON THE OCEAN WILL DIMINISH AND SCA FLAGS WILL BE
  AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY...ON DEL BAY ALSO.
THU NIGHT THRU SUN...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. NEAR SCA GUSTS FRI
  AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE CHANGED AS FOLLOWS....THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR TODAY WILL BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING AND
ANOTHER FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THURSDAY.

RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON TODAY, AT LEAST IN SOME
AREAS, BUT FUEL MOISTURE VALUES WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM AS OVERNIGHT
RAINFALL WAS LIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE WIND WHICH WILL GUST IN
THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE.  ANY FIRE THAT GETS STARTED WILL SPREAD
QUICKLY UNDER THESE CONDITIONS.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. WIND
GUSTS SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER. HOWEVER, WITH WARMER TEMPS...RH
VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20 PCT IN MANY LOCATIONS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER
LOW... SO INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECASTS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...STAFF






000
FXUS61 KPHI 230747
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
347 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THIS
MORNING WILL BUILD SOUTH AND EAST THEN ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY AND THEN WEAKEN FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL
SET UP FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AS
LOW PRESSURE OFF OF NEW ENG AND ITS ASSOCD CDFNT SLOWLY MOVE EWD.
THE GRAD BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL KEEP A TIGHT NWLY WIND
OVER THE REGION.  THE WIND COULD GUST UPWARDS OF 30 MPH AND HIGHER.
TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO HIT 60 DEGREES.  TODAY SHOULD BE GENLY PRECIP FREE,
BUT A SHWR COULD NOT BE RULED OUT, MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
THE NWLY FLOW

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY TWD THE REGION TONIGHT.
EXPECT A GENLY CLEAR SKY.  THE WIND WILL SUBSIDE A BIT BUT REMAIN
GUSTY AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY THRU THE
WHOLE NIGHT.  THERE WILL BE AT LEAST PATCHY FROST IN MANY AREAS AS
TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S.  CONDS WILL HAVE TO BE EXAMINED FOR PSBL
FROST HEADLINES.  ONE NEGATING FACTOR IS THE WIND, BUT REGARDLESS IT
WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER (ESPECIALLY FOR LATE APRIL) WITH THE GUST NW
WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. IT
WILL MOVE EAST AND CREST ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC THU NIGHT AND
INTO FRI MORNING. IT WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE LATER FRI. THU THRU
EARLY FRI WILL HAVE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS THU WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE RATHER LOW THU AND WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
EARLY...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME FIRE WX CONCERNS. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ADDED FOR THURSDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FRI AND FRI NIGHT. AN ATTACHED FRONT WILL CROSS
OUR REGION FRI NIGHT. WE HAVE ONLY MADE SMALL CHANGES TO THE ALREADY
CHC POP FCST FOR THESE PERIODS. INSTABILITY FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT LOOKS
LOW...SO NO THUNDER WILL BE MENTIONED ATTM. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRI
AND SAT WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WITH UPPER 60S/LOW 70S OVER
MOST AREAS...COOLER OVER THE SRN POCONOS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE NRN AREAS SAT...BUT OVERALL A FAIR WEATHER DAY EXPECTED.

FAIR WEATHER IS ALSO EXPECTED FOR SAT NIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA AND SETTLES OVER THE AREA. IT
WILL BE BREEZY AND DRY AS WELL. HIGHS SUN WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
THAN SAT WITH READINGS ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THIS WILL BE THE
START OF AN UNSETTLED PERIOD FOR MUCH OF EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE HAVE
CARRIED SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS MON AND THEN MOSTLY CHC POPS FOR THE
REST OF THE FCST. WPC OFFERED SOME HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR LATE
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT THESE WERE TRIMMED TO BETTER ALIGN
WITH OTHER OFFICES. TEMPS MON-WED WILL BE JUST A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PD AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST BEHIND LAST NIGHT`S CFP.

THE PGRAD BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOW PRES OFF OF NEW ENG WILL KEEP A
STRONG AND GUSTY NW WIND OVER THE AREA TODAY.  THE WIND COULD GUST
UPWARDS OF 30 KTS DURG THE DAY BEFORE SUBSIDING A BIT IN THE EVENING
AND PSBLY SOME MORE OVERNIGHT.  STILL THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
10-15 KT RANGE THE WHOLE TIME...AT LEAST.

OUTLOOK...
THU THRU FRI MORNING...VFR EXPECTED.
FRI AFTERNOON THRU SAT...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
SAT NGT THRU SUN...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNG WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE OCEAN AND SCA ON THE
BAY.  WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ESPECIALLY THE LWR BAY FOR AN UPGRADE TO
GLW IF NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...
THU...GALES ON THE OCEAN WILL DIMINISH AND SCA FLAGS WILL BE
  AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY...ON DEL BAY ALSO.
THU NIGHT THRU SUN...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. NEAR SCA GUSTS FRI
  AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE CHANGED AS FOLLOWS....THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR TODAY WILL BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING AND
ANOTHER FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THURSDAY.

RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON TODAY, AT LEAST IN SOME
AREAS, BUT FUEL MOISTURE VALUES WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM AS OVERNIGHT
RAINFALL WAS LIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE WIND WHICH WILL GUST IN
THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE.  ANY FIRE THAT GETS STARTED WILL SPREAD
QUICKLY UNDER THESE CONDITIONS.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. WIND
GUSTS SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER. HOWEVER, WITH WARMER TEMPS...RH
VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20 PCT IN MANY LOCATIONS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER
LOW... SO INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECASTS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...STAFF






000
FXUS61 KPHI 230747
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
347 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THIS
MORNING WILL BUILD SOUTH AND EAST THEN ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY AND THEN WEAKEN FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL
SET UP FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AS
LOW PRESSURE OFF OF NEW ENG AND ITS ASSOCD CDFNT SLOWLY MOVE EWD.
THE GRAD BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL KEEP A TIGHT NWLY WIND
OVER THE REGION.  THE WIND COULD GUST UPWARDS OF 30 MPH AND HIGHER.
TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO HIT 60 DEGREES.  TODAY SHOULD BE GENLY PRECIP FREE,
BUT A SHWR COULD NOT BE RULED OUT, MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
THE NWLY FLOW

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY TWD THE REGION TONIGHT.
EXPECT A GENLY CLEAR SKY.  THE WIND WILL SUBSIDE A BIT BUT REMAIN
GUSTY AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY THRU THE
WHOLE NIGHT.  THERE WILL BE AT LEAST PATCHY FROST IN MANY AREAS AS
TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S.  CONDS WILL HAVE TO BE EXAMINED FOR PSBL
FROST HEADLINES.  ONE NEGATING FACTOR IS THE WIND, BUT REGARDLESS IT
WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER (ESPECIALLY FOR LATE APRIL) WITH THE GUST NW
WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. IT
WILL MOVE EAST AND CREST ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC THU NIGHT AND
INTO FRI MORNING. IT WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE LATER FRI. THU THRU
EARLY FRI WILL HAVE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS THU WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE RATHER LOW THU AND WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
EARLY...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME FIRE WX CONCERNS. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ADDED FOR THURSDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FRI AND FRI NIGHT. AN ATTACHED FRONT WILL CROSS
OUR REGION FRI NIGHT. WE HAVE ONLY MADE SMALL CHANGES TO THE ALREADY
CHC POP FCST FOR THESE PERIODS. INSTABILITY FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT LOOKS
LOW...SO NO THUNDER WILL BE MENTIONED ATTM. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRI
AND SAT WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WITH UPPER 60S/LOW 70S OVER
MOST AREAS...COOLER OVER THE SRN POCONOS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE NRN AREAS SAT...BUT OVERALL A FAIR WEATHER DAY EXPECTED.

FAIR WEATHER IS ALSO EXPECTED FOR SAT NIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA AND SETTLES OVER THE AREA. IT
WILL BE BREEZY AND DRY AS WELL. HIGHS SUN WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
THAN SAT WITH READINGS ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THIS WILL BE THE
START OF AN UNSETTLED PERIOD FOR MUCH OF EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE HAVE
CARRIED SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS MON AND THEN MOSTLY CHC POPS FOR THE
REST OF THE FCST. WPC OFFERED SOME HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR LATE
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT THESE WERE TRIMMED TO BETTER ALIGN
WITH OTHER OFFICES. TEMPS MON-WED WILL BE JUST A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PD AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST BEHIND LAST NIGHT`S CFP.

THE PGRAD BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOW PRES OFF OF NEW ENG WILL KEEP A
STRONG AND GUSTY NW WIND OVER THE AREA TODAY.  THE WIND COULD GUST
UPWARDS OF 30 KTS DURG THE DAY BEFORE SUBSIDING A BIT IN THE EVENING
AND PSBLY SOME MORE OVERNIGHT.  STILL THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
10-15 KT RANGE THE WHOLE TIME...AT LEAST.

OUTLOOK...
THU THRU FRI MORNING...VFR EXPECTED.
FRI AFTERNOON THRU SAT...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
SAT NGT THRU SUN...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNG WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE OCEAN AND SCA ON THE
BAY.  WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ESPECIALLY THE LWR BAY FOR AN UPGRADE TO
GLW IF NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...
THU...GALES ON THE OCEAN WILL DIMINISH AND SCA FLAGS WILL BE
  AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY...ON DEL BAY ALSO.
THU NIGHT THRU SUN...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. NEAR SCA GUSTS FRI
  AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE CHANGED AS FOLLOWS....THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR TODAY WILL BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING AND
ANOTHER FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THURSDAY.

RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON TODAY, AT LEAST IN SOME
AREAS, BUT FUEL MOISTURE VALUES WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM AS OVERNIGHT
RAINFALL WAS LIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE WIND WHICH WILL GUST IN
THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE.  ANY FIRE THAT GETS STARTED WILL SPREAD
QUICKLY UNDER THESE CONDITIONS.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. WIND
GUSTS SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER. HOWEVER, WITH WARMER TEMPS...RH
VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20 PCT IN MANY LOCATIONS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER
LOW... SO INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECASTS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...STAFF






000
FXUS61 KPHI 230747
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
347 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THIS
MORNING WILL BUILD SOUTH AND EAST THEN ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY AND THEN WEAKEN FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL
SET UP FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AS
LOW PRESSURE OFF OF NEW ENG AND ITS ASSOCD CDFNT SLOWLY MOVE EWD.
THE GRAD BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL KEEP A TIGHT NWLY WIND
OVER THE REGION.  THE WIND COULD GUST UPWARDS OF 30 MPH AND HIGHER.
TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO HIT 60 DEGREES.  TODAY SHOULD BE GENLY PRECIP FREE,
BUT A SHWR COULD NOT BE RULED OUT, MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
THE NWLY FLOW

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY TWD THE REGION TONIGHT.
EXPECT A GENLY CLEAR SKY.  THE WIND WILL SUBSIDE A BIT BUT REMAIN
GUSTY AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY THRU THE
WHOLE NIGHT.  THERE WILL BE AT LEAST PATCHY FROST IN MANY AREAS AS
TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S.  CONDS WILL HAVE TO BE EXAMINED FOR PSBL
FROST HEADLINES.  ONE NEGATING FACTOR IS THE WIND, BUT REGARDLESS IT
WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER (ESPECIALLY FOR LATE APRIL) WITH THE GUST NW
WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. IT
WILL MOVE EAST AND CREST ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC THU NIGHT AND
INTO FRI MORNING. IT WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE LATER FRI. THU THRU
EARLY FRI WILL HAVE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS THU WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE RATHER LOW THU AND WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
EARLY...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME FIRE WX CONCERNS. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ADDED FOR THURSDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FRI AND FRI NIGHT. AN ATTACHED FRONT WILL CROSS
OUR REGION FRI NIGHT. WE HAVE ONLY MADE SMALL CHANGES TO THE ALREADY
CHC POP FCST FOR THESE PERIODS. INSTABILITY FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT LOOKS
LOW...SO NO THUNDER WILL BE MENTIONED ATTM. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRI
AND SAT WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WITH UPPER 60S/LOW 70S OVER
MOST AREAS...COOLER OVER THE SRN POCONOS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE NRN AREAS SAT...BUT OVERALL A FAIR WEATHER DAY EXPECTED.

FAIR WEATHER IS ALSO EXPECTED FOR SAT NIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA AND SETTLES OVER THE AREA. IT
WILL BE BREEZY AND DRY AS WELL. HIGHS SUN WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
THAN SAT WITH READINGS ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THIS WILL BE THE
START OF AN UNSETTLED PERIOD FOR MUCH OF EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE HAVE
CARRIED SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS MON AND THEN MOSTLY CHC POPS FOR THE
REST OF THE FCST. WPC OFFERED SOME HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR LATE
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT THESE WERE TRIMMED TO BETTER ALIGN
WITH OTHER OFFICES. TEMPS MON-WED WILL BE JUST A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PD AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST BEHIND LAST NIGHT`S CFP.

THE PGRAD BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOW PRES OFF OF NEW ENG WILL KEEP A
STRONG AND GUSTY NW WIND OVER THE AREA TODAY.  THE WIND COULD GUST
UPWARDS OF 30 KTS DURG THE DAY BEFORE SUBSIDING A BIT IN THE EVENING
AND PSBLY SOME MORE OVERNIGHT.  STILL THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
10-15 KT RANGE THE WHOLE TIME...AT LEAST.

OUTLOOK...
THU THRU FRI MORNING...VFR EXPECTED.
FRI AFTERNOON THRU SAT...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
SAT NGT THRU SUN...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNG WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE OCEAN AND SCA ON THE
BAY.  WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ESPECIALLY THE LWR BAY FOR AN UPGRADE TO
GLW IF NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...
THU...GALES ON THE OCEAN WILL DIMINISH AND SCA FLAGS WILL BE
  AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY...ON DEL BAY ALSO.
THU NIGHT THRU SUN...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. NEAR SCA GUSTS FRI
  AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE CHANGED AS FOLLOWS....THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR TODAY WILL BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING AND
ANOTHER FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THURSDAY.

RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON TODAY, AT LEAST IN SOME
AREAS, BUT FUEL MOISTURE VALUES WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM AS OVERNIGHT
RAINFALL WAS LIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE WIND WHICH WILL GUST IN
THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE.  ANY FIRE THAT GETS STARTED WILL SPREAD
QUICKLY UNDER THESE CONDITIONS.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. WIND
GUSTS SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER. HOWEVER, WITH WARMER TEMPS...RH
VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20 PCT IN MANY LOCATIONS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER
LOW... SO INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECASTS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...STAFF






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230432 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1232 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FOR OVERNIGHT...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENT TO POPS AND CLOUDS. THE
EXTENSION OF THE POPS WAS MADE USING THE PATH AND SPEED OF THE
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH WILL DIG THROUGH OVERNIGHT. AIR
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AND
USING THE LATEST CRITICAL THICKNESS...ALL PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
LIQUID. TEMPS WERE UPDATED WITH THE LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY SWINGS EAST OF THE AREA AFTER DAWN. THE
COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY RECEDE NORTHWARD LATER THIS
MORNING...EXITING INTO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH THE
WAA ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. A RETURN OF SUN WILL HELP WITH THE TEMPS...BUT THEY WILL
STILL END UP BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY SURFACE HIGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
AN OPTIMAL SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR TEMPS
TO DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL.

TEMPS MODERATE THURSDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WEAK WAA.

FAST MOVING COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE BOUNDARY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OCCLUDED SYSTEM WHICH
WILL SWING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. DUE TO THE
OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM...THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT
MUCH COOLER THEN THE AIR MASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT.
THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT...BUT TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY FRIDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SECONDARY FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL HAVE MUCH STRONGER CAA BEHIND IT. WILL INCLUDE CHANCE POPS
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. CHANCE POPS
THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE COLDER AIR MASS. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW
WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE CLEARED ALL TERMINALS TO THE EAST LEAVING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS IN THEIR WAKE WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. SOME ADDITIONAL COLD
ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THEY SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT ON
WEDNESDAY...YIELDING TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS STILL AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230432 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1232 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FOR OVERNIGHT...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENT TO POPS AND CLOUDS. THE
EXTENSION OF THE POPS WAS MADE USING THE PATH AND SPEED OF THE
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH WILL DIG THROUGH OVERNIGHT. AIR
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AND
USING THE LATEST CRITICAL THICKNESS...ALL PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
LIQUID. TEMPS WERE UPDATED WITH THE LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY SWINGS EAST OF THE AREA AFTER DAWN. THE
COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY RECEDE NORTHWARD LATER THIS
MORNING...EXITING INTO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH THE
WAA ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. A RETURN OF SUN WILL HELP WITH THE TEMPS...BUT THEY WILL
STILL END UP BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY SURFACE HIGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
AN OPTIMAL SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR TEMPS
TO DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL.

TEMPS MODERATE THURSDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WEAK WAA.

FAST MOVING COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE BOUNDARY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OCCLUDED SYSTEM WHICH
WILL SWING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. DUE TO THE
OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM...THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT
MUCH COOLER THEN THE AIR MASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT.
THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT...BUT TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY FRIDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SECONDARY FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL HAVE MUCH STRONGER CAA BEHIND IT. WILL INCLUDE CHANCE POPS
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. CHANCE POPS
THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE COLDER AIR MASS. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW
WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE CLEARED ALL TERMINALS TO THE EAST LEAVING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS IN THEIR WAKE WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. SOME ADDITIONAL COLD
ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THEY SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT ON
WEDNESDAY...YIELDING TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS STILL AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230432 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1232 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FOR OVERNIGHT...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENT TO POPS AND CLOUDS. THE
EXTENSION OF THE POPS WAS MADE USING THE PATH AND SPEED OF THE
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH WILL DIG THROUGH OVERNIGHT. AIR
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AND
USING THE LATEST CRITICAL THICKNESS...ALL PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
LIQUID. TEMPS WERE UPDATED WITH THE LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY SWINGS EAST OF THE AREA AFTER DAWN. THE
COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY RECEDE NORTHWARD LATER THIS
MORNING...EXITING INTO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH THE
WAA ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. A RETURN OF SUN WILL HELP WITH THE TEMPS...BUT THEY WILL
STILL END UP BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY SURFACE HIGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
AN OPTIMAL SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR TEMPS
TO DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL.

TEMPS MODERATE THURSDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WEAK WAA.

FAST MOVING COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE BOUNDARY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OCCLUDED SYSTEM WHICH
WILL SWING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. DUE TO THE
OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM...THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT
MUCH COOLER THEN THE AIR MASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT.
THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT...BUT TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY FRIDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SECONDARY FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL HAVE MUCH STRONGER CAA BEHIND IT. WILL INCLUDE CHANCE POPS
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. CHANCE POPS
THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE COLDER AIR MASS. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW
WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE CLEARED ALL TERMINALS TO THE EAST LEAVING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS IN THEIR WAKE WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. SOME ADDITIONAL COLD
ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THEY SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT ON
WEDNESDAY...YIELDING TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS STILL AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230432 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1232 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FOR OVERNIGHT...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENT TO POPS AND CLOUDS. THE
EXTENSION OF THE POPS WAS MADE USING THE PATH AND SPEED OF THE
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH WILL DIG THROUGH OVERNIGHT. AIR
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AND
USING THE LATEST CRITICAL THICKNESS...ALL PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
LIQUID. TEMPS WERE UPDATED WITH THE LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY SWINGS EAST OF THE AREA AFTER DAWN. THE
COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY RECEDE NORTHWARD LATER THIS
MORNING...EXITING INTO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH THE
WAA ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. A RETURN OF SUN WILL HELP WITH THE TEMPS...BUT THEY WILL
STILL END UP BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY SURFACE HIGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
AN OPTIMAL SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR TEMPS
TO DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL.

TEMPS MODERATE THURSDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WEAK WAA.

FAST MOVING COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE BOUNDARY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OCCLUDED SYSTEM WHICH
WILL SWING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. DUE TO THE
OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM...THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT
MUCH COOLER THEN THE AIR MASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT.
THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT...BUT TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY FRIDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SECONDARY FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL HAVE MUCH STRONGER CAA BEHIND IT. WILL INCLUDE CHANCE POPS
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. CHANCE POPS
THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE COLDER AIR MASS. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW
WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE CLEARED ALL TERMINALS TO THE EAST LEAVING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS IN THEIR WAKE WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. SOME ADDITIONAL COLD
ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THEY SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT ON
WEDNESDAY...YIELDING TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS STILL AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 230419
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1219 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
HIGH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH AND BRING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND BEGINS TO AFFECT OUR
REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE FRONT IS THRU THE REGION AND PRECIP HAS ALL BUT ENDED. WIND
HAS BECOME W TO NW OVER THE AREA AND WHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME
POCKETS OF CLOUDS, THE SKY HAS BEGUN TO CLEAR.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...THROUGH LATE-DAY, A COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD, EVENTUALLY CROSSING OUR
FORECAST AREA BY LATE EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE AND ACTUAL
OBSERVATIONS TO OUR WEST CONTINUE TO SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND MOST AREAS WILL ONLY SEE A TENTH TO
PERHAPS TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN FROM SHOWERS AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO LIMITED INSTABILITY
THROUGH LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING, BUT WE DID KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE/ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST BASED ON FORECAST CAPES
OFF THE GFS/NAM AND ECMWF. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST EARLY, THEN BECOMING MORE WESTERLY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WE QUICKLY DECREASE POPS AFTER ABOUT 01Z FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE. THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN, COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. IN FACT, THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. FOR TEMPERATURES, WE
MOSTLY TOOK A MET/MAV GUIDANCE BLEND WITH SOME LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS
AND EXPECT LOWS TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A WINDY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS TO OUR NORTH OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST GRADUALLY BUILDS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FELT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY, WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30
TO 35 MPH RANGE. WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD, A
COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF OUR FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS
AND SOME SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY, WITH 850/925MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS REACHING MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TOWARD OUR AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR MAINE MOVES SLOWLY AWAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN STRONG
WINDS OVER AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH THE
COMBINED AFFECT OF THE STRONG WINDS AND DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROPPING BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR THE AREA.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...USED A MET/MAV BLEND FOR
TEMPERATURES.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BRINGS ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. USED WPC SURFACE
FRONT FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION/WIND TIMING. END RESULT WAS VERY
LITTLE CHANGE FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN THE GRIDS.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...USED WPC EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE
AS FIRST GUESS FOR GRIDS. ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THAT
DATA SET.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL BE LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS IS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM PER WPC MAPS AND DISCUSSION.
TRIMMED BACK PRECIPITATION START TIME IN PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
LATER ON MONDAY. ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED DOWN THE ROAD
AS SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS TEND TO BE EVER SLOWER THAN INITIALLY
FORECAST.

REVIEWING THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...
OVERALL VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

EVENING UPDATE...THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS GENERALLY OVER FOR
MOST TERMINALS. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SHORTLY, BUT IT IS TOO SMALL OF A THREAT TO MENTION IN THE TAFS
NOW.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING; ALTHOUGH, A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR IS
POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
WHILE ISOLATED TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THUNDER FOR THE TAF SITES...SO THIS WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS. WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS EVENING AND BECOME GUSTY AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTS TO BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 KNOT
RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE, VFR AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...VFR CONDS WITH NW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT
RANGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI THROUGH SAT...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. MDT CONFIDENCE.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS.  MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE, WE DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE GALE WATCH TO
A GALE WARNING FOR OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, BEGINNING AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY AND LASTING INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS AND SEAS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE INTO SCA TERRITORY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS PLUS ARE
EXPECTED. FOR DELAWARE BAY, WE MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND
EXTENDED IT INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS FOR THE BAY SHOULD
PRIMARILY TOP OUT AROUND 30 KNOTS DURING WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...GALE FORCE GUSTS LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WITH
GUSTS AROUND 35 KT AND POSSIBLY HIGHER. A GALE WARNING HAS NOW BEEN
ISSUED. WIND SUBSIDING LATER THU.

FRI THROUGH SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME, THOUGH WE COULD APPROACH SCA WIND BY SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL BE WELL OVER FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA.
RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY BUT FUEL MOISTURE
VALUES WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM AS RAINFALL TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT. BOTTOM-LINE IS THAT THERE IS ENOUGH OF A RISK BASED ON
THE WINDS AND FUEL MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY A WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY.

PROBLEMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. THOUGH WINDS GUSTS MAY
BE A LITTLE LOWER, RH VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20% IN MANY LOCATIONS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
PROBLEM. MONITOR THE FORECAST AS FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE
REQUIRED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KLINE/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/JOHNSON/KLINE
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE
FIRE WEATHER...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 230419
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1219 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
HIGH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH AND BRING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND BEGINS TO AFFECT OUR
REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE FRONT IS THRU THE REGION AND PRECIP HAS ALL BUT ENDED. WIND
HAS BECOME W TO NW OVER THE AREA AND WHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME
POCKETS OF CLOUDS, THE SKY HAS BEGUN TO CLEAR.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...THROUGH LATE-DAY, A COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD, EVENTUALLY CROSSING OUR
FORECAST AREA BY LATE EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE AND ACTUAL
OBSERVATIONS TO OUR WEST CONTINUE TO SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND MOST AREAS WILL ONLY SEE A TENTH TO
PERHAPS TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN FROM SHOWERS AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO LIMITED INSTABILITY
THROUGH LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING, BUT WE DID KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE/ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST BASED ON FORECAST CAPES
OFF THE GFS/NAM AND ECMWF. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST EARLY, THEN BECOMING MORE WESTERLY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WE QUICKLY DECREASE POPS AFTER ABOUT 01Z FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE. THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN, COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. IN FACT, THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. FOR TEMPERATURES, WE
MOSTLY TOOK A MET/MAV GUIDANCE BLEND WITH SOME LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS
AND EXPECT LOWS TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A WINDY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS TO OUR NORTH OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST GRADUALLY BUILDS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FELT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY, WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30
TO 35 MPH RANGE. WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD, A
COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF OUR FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS
AND SOME SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY, WITH 850/925MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS REACHING MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TOWARD OUR AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR MAINE MOVES SLOWLY AWAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN STRONG
WINDS OVER AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH THE
COMBINED AFFECT OF THE STRONG WINDS AND DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROPPING BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR THE AREA.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...USED A MET/MAV BLEND FOR
TEMPERATURES.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BRINGS ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. USED WPC SURFACE
FRONT FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION/WIND TIMING. END RESULT WAS VERY
LITTLE CHANGE FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN THE GRIDS.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...USED WPC EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE
AS FIRST GUESS FOR GRIDS. ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THAT
DATA SET.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL BE LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS IS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM PER WPC MAPS AND DISCUSSION.
TRIMMED BACK PRECIPITATION START TIME IN PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
LATER ON MONDAY. ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED DOWN THE ROAD
AS SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS TEND TO BE EVER SLOWER THAN INITIALLY
FORECAST.

REVIEWING THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...
OVERALL VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

EVENING UPDATE...THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS GENERALLY OVER FOR
MOST TERMINALS. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SHORTLY, BUT IT IS TOO SMALL OF A THREAT TO MENTION IN THE TAFS
NOW.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING; ALTHOUGH, A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR IS
POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
WHILE ISOLATED TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THUNDER FOR THE TAF SITES...SO THIS WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS. WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS EVENING AND BECOME GUSTY AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTS TO BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 KNOT
RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE, VFR AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...VFR CONDS WITH NW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT
RANGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI THROUGH SAT...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. MDT CONFIDENCE.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS.  MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE, WE DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE GALE WATCH TO
A GALE WARNING FOR OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, BEGINNING AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY AND LASTING INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS AND SEAS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE INTO SCA TERRITORY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS PLUS ARE
EXPECTED. FOR DELAWARE BAY, WE MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND
EXTENDED IT INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS FOR THE BAY SHOULD
PRIMARILY TOP OUT AROUND 30 KNOTS DURING WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...GALE FORCE GUSTS LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WITH
GUSTS AROUND 35 KT AND POSSIBLY HIGHER. A GALE WARNING HAS NOW BEEN
ISSUED. WIND SUBSIDING LATER THU.

FRI THROUGH SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME, THOUGH WE COULD APPROACH SCA WIND BY SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL BE WELL OVER FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA.
RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY BUT FUEL MOISTURE
VALUES WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM AS RAINFALL TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT. BOTTOM-LINE IS THAT THERE IS ENOUGH OF A RISK BASED ON
THE WINDS AND FUEL MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY A WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY.

PROBLEMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. THOUGH WINDS GUSTS MAY
BE A LITTLE LOWER, RH VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20% IN MANY LOCATIONS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
PROBLEM. MONITOR THE FORECAST AS FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE
REQUIRED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KLINE/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/JOHNSON/KLINE
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE
FIRE WEATHER...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 230419
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1219 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
HIGH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH AND BRING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND BEGINS TO AFFECT OUR
REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE FRONT IS THRU THE REGION AND PRECIP HAS ALL BUT ENDED. WIND
HAS BECOME W TO NW OVER THE AREA AND WHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME
POCKETS OF CLOUDS, THE SKY HAS BEGUN TO CLEAR.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...THROUGH LATE-DAY, A COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD, EVENTUALLY CROSSING OUR
FORECAST AREA BY LATE EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE AND ACTUAL
OBSERVATIONS TO OUR WEST CONTINUE TO SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND MOST AREAS WILL ONLY SEE A TENTH TO
PERHAPS TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN FROM SHOWERS AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO LIMITED INSTABILITY
THROUGH LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING, BUT WE DID KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE/ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST BASED ON FORECAST CAPES
OFF THE GFS/NAM AND ECMWF. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST EARLY, THEN BECOMING MORE WESTERLY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WE QUICKLY DECREASE POPS AFTER ABOUT 01Z FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE. THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN, COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. IN FACT, THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. FOR TEMPERATURES, WE
MOSTLY TOOK A MET/MAV GUIDANCE BLEND WITH SOME LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS
AND EXPECT LOWS TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A WINDY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS TO OUR NORTH OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST GRADUALLY BUILDS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FELT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY, WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30
TO 35 MPH RANGE. WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD, A
COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF OUR FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS
AND SOME SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY, WITH 850/925MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS REACHING MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TOWARD OUR AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR MAINE MOVES SLOWLY AWAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN STRONG
WINDS OVER AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH THE
COMBINED AFFECT OF THE STRONG WINDS AND DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROPPING BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR THE AREA.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...USED A MET/MAV BLEND FOR
TEMPERATURES.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BRINGS ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. USED WPC SURFACE
FRONT FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION/WIND TIMING. END RESULT WAS VERY
LITTLE CHANGE FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN THE GRIDS.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...USED WPC EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE
AS FIRST GUESS FOR GRIDS. ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THAT
DATA SET.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL BE LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS IS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM PER WPC MAPS AND DISCUSSION.
TRIMMED BACK PRECIPITATION START TIME IN PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
LATER ON MONDAY. ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED DOWN THE ROAD
AS SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS TEND TO BE EVER SLOWER THAN INITIALLY
FORECAST.

REVIEWING THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...
OVERALL VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

EVENING UPDATE...THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS GENERALLY OVER FOR
MOST TERMINALS. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SHORTLY, BUT IT IS TOO SMALL OF A THREAT TO MENTION IN THE TAFS
NOW.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING; ALTHOUGH, A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR IS
POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
WHILE ISOLATED TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THUNDER FOR THE TAF SITES...SO THIS WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS. WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS EVENING AND BECOME GUSTY AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTS TO BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 KNOT
RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE, VFR AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...VFR CONDS WITH NW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT
RANGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI THROUGH SAT...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. MDT CONFIDENCE.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS.  MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE, WE DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE GALE WATCH TO
A GALE WARNING FOR OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, BEGINNING AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY AND LASTING INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS AND SEAS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE INTO SCA TERRITORY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS PLUS ARE
EXPECTED. FOR DELAWARE BAY, WE MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND
EXTENDED IT INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS FOR THE BAY SHOULD
PRIMARILY TOP OUT AROUND 30 KNOTS DURING WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...GALE FORCE GUSTS LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WITH
GUSTS AROUND 35 KT AND POSSIBLY HIGHER. A GALE WARNING HAS NOW BEEN
ISSUED. WIND SUBSIDING LATER THU.

FRI THROUGH SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME, THOUGH WE COULD APPROACH SCA WIND BY SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL BE WELL OVER FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA.
RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY BUT FUEL MOISTURE
VALUES WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM AS RAINFALL TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT. BOTTOM-LINE IS THAT THERE IS ENOUGH OF A RISK BASED ON
THE WINDS AND FUEL MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY A WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY.

PROBLEMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. THOUGH WINDS GUSTS MAY
BE A LITTLE LOWER, RH VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20% IN MANY LOCATIONS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
PROBLEM. MONITOR THE FORECAST AS FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE
REQUIRED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KLINE/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/JOHNSON/KLINE
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE
FIRE WEATHER...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 230419
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1219 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
HIGH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH AND BRING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND BEGINS TO AFFECT OUR
REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE FRONT IS THRU THE REGION AND PRECIP HAS ALL BUT ENDED. WIND
HAS BECOME W TO NW OVER THE AREA AND WHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME
POCKETS OF CLOUDS, THE SKY HAS BEGUN TO CLEAR.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...THROUGH LATE-DAY, A COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD, EVENTUALLY CROSSING OUR
FORECAST AREA BY LATE EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE AND ACTUAL
OBSERVATIONS TO OUR WEST CONTINUE TO SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND MOST AREAS WILL ONLY SEE A TENTH TO
PERHAPS TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN FROM SHOWERS AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO LIMITED INSTABILITY
THROUGH LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING, BUT WE DID KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE/ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST BASED ON FORECAST CAPES
OFF THE GFS/NAM AND ECMWF. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST EARLY, THEN BECOMING MORE WESTERLY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WE QUICKLY DECREASE POPS AFTER ABOUT 01Z FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE. THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN, COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. IN FACT, THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. FOR TEMPERATURES, WE
MOSTLY TOOK A MET/MAV GUIDANCE BLEND WITH SOME LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS
AND EXPECT LOWS TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A WINDY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS TO OUR NORTH OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST GRADUALLY BUILDS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FELT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY, WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30
TO 35 MPH RANGE. WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD, A
COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF OUR FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS
AND SOME SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY, WITH 850/925MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS REACHING MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TOWARD OUR AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR MAINE MOVES SLOWLY AWAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN STRONG
WINDS OVER AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH THE
COMBINED AFFECT OF THE STRONG WINDS AND DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROPPING BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR THE AREA.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...USED A MET/MAV BLEND FOR
TEMPERATURES.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BRINGS ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. USED WPC SURFACE
FRONT FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION/WIND TIMING. END RESULT WAS VERY
LITTLE CHANGE FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN THE GRIDS.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...USED WPC EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE
AS FIRST GUESS FOR GRIDS. ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THAT
DATA SET.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL BE LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS IS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM PER WPC MAPS AND DISCUSSION.
TRIMMED BACK PRECIPITATION START TIME IN PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
LATER ON MONDAY. ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED DOWN THE ROAD
AS SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS TEND TO BE EVER SLOWER THAN INITIALLY
FORECAST.

REVIEWING THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...
OVERALL VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

EVENING UPDATE...THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS GENERALLY OVER FOR
MOST TERMINALS. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SHORTLY, BUT IT IS TOO SMALL OF A THREAT TO MENTION IN THE TAFS
NOW.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING; ALTHOUGH, A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR IS
POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
WHILE ISOLATED TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THUNDER FOR THE TAF SITES...SO THIS WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS. WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS EVENING AND BECOME GUSTY AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTS TO BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 KNOT
RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE, VFR AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...VFR CONDS WITH NW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT
RANGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI THROUGH SAT...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. MDT CONFIDENCE.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS.  MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE, WE DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE GALE WATCH TO
A GALE WARNING FOR OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, BEGINNING AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY AND LASTING INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS AND SEAS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE INTO SCA TERRITORY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS PLUS ARE
EXPECTED. FOR DELAWARE BAY, WE MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND
EXTENDED IT INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS FOR THE BAY SHOULD
PRIMARILY TOP OUT AROUND 30 KNOTS DURING WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...GALE FORCE GUSTS LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WITH
GUSTS AROUND 35 KT AND POSSIBLY HIGHER. A GALE WARNING HAS NOW BEEN
ISSUED. WIND SUBSIDING LATER THU.

FRI THROUGH SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME, THOUGH WE COULD APPROACH SCA WIND BY SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL BE WELL OVER FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA.
RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY BUT FUEL MOISTURE
VALUES WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM AS RAINFALL TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT. BOTTOM-LINE IS THAT THERE IS ENOUGH OF A RISK BASED ON
THE WINDS AND FUEL MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY A WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY.

PROBLEMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. THOUGH WINDS GUSTS MAY
BE A LITTLE LOWER, RH VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20% IN MANY LOCATIONS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
PROBLEM. MONITOR THE FORECAST AS FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE
REQUIRED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KLINE/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/JOHNSON/KLINE
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE
FIRE WEATHER...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230140
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
940 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A
SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM...SFC COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS
AND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EASTWARD LATE THIS EVENING...THEN
OFF THE COAST AROUND 06Z. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT
ONLY ISOLATED -SHRA ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. BASED
ON THIS...HAVE REMOVED POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WHILE KEEPING LOW
END POPS (20-30%) ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN LOCALS THRU MIDNIGHT.

A QUICKLY CLEARING SKY IS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. ENOUGH MIXING WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS FROM ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPR 40S INLAND
AND OVER THE EASTERN SHORE...TO LOW 50S SE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODIFYING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW ON
WED...WITH A BREEZY TO WINDY AND VERY DRY DAY EXPECTED. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH ON THE ERN SHORE AND
25-35 MPH ELSEWHERE (SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW). SKIES WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR ALTHOUGH A FEW SCATTERED CU WILL PERSIST ACRS THE ERN
SHORE DUE TO COLD POOL ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
(LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE). LOCAL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER, WITH
DEWPOINTS WILL MIX INTO THE UPR 20S/LOW 30S (YIELDING MINIMUM RH
VALUES IN THE MID 20S INLAND) AND WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT,
BUMPED TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND ALL ZONES (NOT MUCH
DIFFERENCE AT THE COAST DUE TO STRONG NW FLOW). HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM NW WED NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES. EARLY
MORNING LOWS THU MORNING IN THE MID-UPPER 30S ALONG/W OF I-95 TO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE (DO NOT EXPECT A FREEZE AND
PROBABLY TOO DRY FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF FROST).

DRY AGAIN ON THU AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE REGION, BEFORE
SLIDING OFF OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE THU/ERY FRIDAY. HIGHS THURS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S (A LITTLE COOLER NEAR THE COAST). ONCE AGAIN,
MIN RH VALUES FALL INTO THE 20S THU AFTN BUT WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER. NEXT FAST MOVING WAVE OF MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE W ON
FRI. HAVE BLENDED THE FASTER GFS AND SLOWER NAM/ECMWF FOR
NOW...WITH CHC POPS ALL ZONES AT SOME POINT...MAINLY FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTN. WARMER SSW FLOW SHOULD PUSH HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO EVOLVE INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED...LIKELY RESULTING IN A
COOL/WET PERIOD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TENDS TO STRUGGLE WITH BLOCKY FLOW...AND THIS
IS NO EXCEPTION. TRENDED TOWARD ENSEMBLE AND WPC GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH
OUT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. OVERALL...UPPER PATTERN WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS...HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES
AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER SE CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. WHILE
MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE MODELS...A SECOND (DRY) COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SAT. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING COOLER/DRIER AIR TO THE REGION ON SUN. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION (DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL IT COULD BE FROM THE CAROLINAS NWD TO THE MASON DIXON LINE).
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL
PROGRESS EWD SUN-TUES...TAPPING INTO GULF MOISTURE. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUN NIGHT-TUES BASED ON UNCERTAINTY...BUT
INCREASE TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS TUES NIGHT AS THE UPPER/SFC LOW GETS
CLOSER.

HAVE TRENDED TO THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S SUN-TUES. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 23Z...PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS HAVE PRACTICALLY DISSIPATED AND DID
NOT INCLUDE ANY PCPN IN THE TAFS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WAS MOVING
THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS AND IS FORECAST TO REACH RIC/SBY SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ECG AROUND 09Z/5AM EDT. BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTY NW OR N WINDS WILL
IMMEDIATELY FOLLOW THE FRONT. WINDS DIMINISH SOME (EXCEPT AT ORF)
A COUPLE OF HOURS FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THEN INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTS MAY REACH OVER 30 KNOTS
AT SBY AND AROUND 25 KNOTS AT THE OTHER TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY WITH SCT SHWRS/TSTMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY BUT THE WEEKEND
IS FORECAST TO BE DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS ALIGNED ALONG THE WATERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT LOCATES OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS.
S-SW WINDS CURRENTLY OVER THE WATERS AVERAGING 10-15 KT WITH WAVES
1-2 FT AND SEAS 3-4 FT. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS THIS
EVENING AS A STRONG NW SURGE COMMENCES. PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS BTWN BUILDING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. 925MB WINDS INCREASE TO 35-40
KT AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHARPEN. THE RESULT WILL BE SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS...INCLUDING THE RIVERS AND SOUND.
DECIDED TO NOT GO LOW-END GALE BASED ON THE LIMITED STRENGTH OF
THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COOL WATERS. HOWEVER...AN OCCASIONAL
GUST TO 35 KT IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN BAY AND NRN
COASTAL WATERS. TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AT KSBY YIELDS GUST TO ONLY
30-33 KT. WILL MONITOR FUTURE OBS/MODEL TRENDS TO SEE IF GALE
HEADLINES ARE NEEDED. REGARDLESS...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
RAPIDLY AROUND MIDNIGHT. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT IN THE
BAY...2-3 FT IN THE RIVERS AND 2 FT IN THE SOUND. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 5-8 FT...HIGHEST IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD SWD OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS AS SCA CONDITIONS
PERSIST THRU THE DAY. THE HIGH WILL NUDGE OVER THE WATERS WED
NIGHT...ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO
DIMINISH. SCA HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION
THURS...LOCATING OFFSHORE LATE THURS. FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE
SOUTH...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT LATE THURS. SCA HEADLINES
FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND DROP OFF LATE WEDS...LOWER JAMES AND BAY
THURS MORNING.

A WEAKER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS FRI AFTERNOON WITH A
SECOND COLDER FRONT CROSSING THE WATERS SATURDAY. SCA CONDITIONS
MAY BE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GIVEN THE EXPECTED DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY...AND
AFTER COORDINATION WITH STATE FIRE OFFICIALS/NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...A FIRE WX WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VA AND THE LOWER MD EASTER
SHORE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONGEST (20-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH) ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM FVX-PTB-
LFI...AND THIS IS WHERE THE WATCH IS IN EFFECT. FARTHER SOUTH...WINDS
WILL NOT BE AS STRONG (10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH)...SO HAVE
OPTED TO LEAN TOWARD AN SPS FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER INSTEAD.
WILL LIKELY UPGRADE THE FIRE WX WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING OVERNIGHT.
MIN RH VALUES WED AFTN WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 20-30% FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

DRY CONDITIONS (MIN RH VALUES 20-25%) WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG. THIS WILL LIKELY
PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY FIRE WX STATEMENTS...EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE WHERE WINDS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ012>017-030>032.
VA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ048-049-061>064-068>078-081>086-089>091-
     094-099-100.
     INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VAZ060-065>067-079-080-087-088-092-
     093-095>098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM
FIRE WEATHER...JDM







000
FXUS61 KLWX 230135
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
935 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE COAST. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY BEFORE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 01Z...996MB SFC LOW IS CENTERED OVER NRN NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH
AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY
THEN SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED
OFF THE SHORE NEAR BALTIMORE AND WILL PUSH ACROSS THE EASTERN
SHORE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. JUST A FEW SHOWERS WEST OF THE
FRONT WITH NW FLOW INCREASING. OVERNIGHT GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED...INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 MPH AROUND SUNRISE. MIN TEMPS
LOW TO MID 40S INLAND...UPR 40S URBAN/NEARSHORE.


HIPRES BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WED. COLD AIRMASS WILL
BE MODERATED A BIT BY THE HIGH SUN ANGLE. FORECAST UPDATE A BLEND
OF MAV AND MET WHICH CAME OUT A BIT HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS. THIS
IS REASONABLE WITH SUNNY SKIES AND DOWNSLOPING FLOW. MAX TEMPS
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S EXCEPT FOR COOLER
HIGHS IN THE 40S ALONG HIGHER ELEVATIONS RIDGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE MOVING TOWARDS NEWFOUNDLAND WED NIGHT AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FROM THE WEST. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE GUSTY WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL
DEPART TO OUR EAST WED EVENING. TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOW 30S WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AS CLEARING AND CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO
DROP. ELSEWHERE...MID TO UPPER 30S EXPECTED TO AROUND 40 IN THE
METROS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THURSDAY RESULTING IN A SUNNY
DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL APPROACH THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVES OFF THE
COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL
REACH 70-75 DEGREES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...ACCOMPANIED BY A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
STRONG PRESSURE SURGE/COLD ADVECTION WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TO
BEGIN THE WEEKEND. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED...SO ANY
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG THE
MASON-DIXON LINE CLOSEST TO THE FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SATURDAY. THUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO THESE AREAS.

AT THE MOMENT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER WITH
THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE FRONT. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
APPEARING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING
THE STRONGEST WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE PRESSURE SURGE WILL OCCUR
DURING PEAK HEATING WHEN LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPEST AND MIXING DOWN
HIGHER WIND GUSTS WOULD BE EASIEST.

WINDS DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES OVER THE REGION...BUT ITS STAY OVER OUR AREA IS
SHORT-LIVED AS A LARGE AND SLOW-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACH
FROM THE WEST BRINGING A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDS THROUGH TAF PERIOD NOW THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS MOVED EAST. NWLY FLOW INCREASES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TONIGHT...WITH 30 KT GUSTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

GUSTY NW FLOW CONTINUES WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST
AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS MAY CROSS THE
TERMINALS FRIDAY.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS AND WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS INCREASING TO
BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS THRU TNGT WITH NWLY FLOW
INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY FOR ALL OF THE WATERS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KT EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. THE GALE
WARNING MAY BE ABLE TO BE DOWNGRADING SOMETIME DURING THE AFTN AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED WIND FIELD WEAKENS A BIT.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH AN SCA IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH THAT TIME.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY.

A PERIOD OF HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A STRONG BUT
MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT SATURDAY. WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE
NIGHT SATURDAY AND LIKELY DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING
AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY. A DEEP MIXING LAYER WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO MIX
DOWN...CAUSING LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY
WINDS...LOW FUEL MOISTURE AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ENHANCE
THE THREAT FOR THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRES WEDNESDAY. AFTER
COORDINATION WITH STATE OFFICIALS AND SURROUNDING WFOS...A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
POSITIVE TIDAL ANOMALIES REMAIN STEADY AROUND THREE-QUARTERS OF A
FOOT THIS EVENING. NWLY WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HRS WILL CAUSE ANOMALIES
TO DECREASE TO ABOUT HALF A FOOT BELOW MLLW.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BLOWOUT TIDES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR DCZ001.
MD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-502.
VA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ025>031-036>040-042-050>057-501-502-504.
WV...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR WVZ050>053-055-502-504-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/JRK
NEAR TERM...BAJ/JRK
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...BAJ/JRK/HAS/DFH
MARINE...BAJ/JRK/HAS/DFH
FIRE WEATHER...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...









000
FXUS61 KPHI 230123
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
923 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
HIGH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH AND BRING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND BEGINS TO AFFECT OUR
REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
930PM UPDATE...INITIAL LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS MOSTLY
FALLEN APART. THERE ARE STILL TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS, ONE ALONG THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY, AND ANOTHER NORTH OF THE POCONOS THAT MAY HAVE A
CHANCE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION A BIT LATER AS THE MAIN FRONT
ARRIVES. BASED ON OBS, IT LOOKS LIKE THE SHOWERS AND STORMS OUT
RAN THE COLD FRONT, SO THE MAIN COLD FRONT REMAINS JUST OUTSIDE OF
OUR CWA AT THIS TIME. ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST
TRENDS, BUT OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...THROUGH LATE-DAY, A COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD, EVENTUALLY CROSSING OUR
FORECAST AREA BY LATE EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE AND ACTUAL
OBSERVATIONS TO OUR WEST CONTINUE TO SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND MOST AREAS WILL ONLY SEE A TENTH TO
PERHAPS TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN FROM SHOWERS AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO LIMITED INSTABILITY
THROUGH LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING, BUT WE DID KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE/ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST BASED ON FORECAST CAPES
OFF THE GFS/NAM AND ECMWF. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST EARLY, THEN BECOMING MORE WESTERLY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WE QUICKLY DECREASE POPS AFTER ABOUT 01Z FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE. THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN, COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. IN FACT, THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. FOR TEMPERATURES, WE
MOSTLY TOOK A MET/MAV GUIDANCE BLEND WITH SOME LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS
AND EXPECT LOWS TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A WINDY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS TO OUR NORTH OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST GRADUALLY BUILDS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FELT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY, WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30
TO 35 MPH RANGE. WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD, A
COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF OUR FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS
AND SOME SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY, WITH 850/925MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS REACHING MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TOWARD OUR AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR MAINE MOVES SLOWLY AWAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN STRONG
WINDS OVER AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH THE
COMBINED AFFECT OF THE STRONG WINDS AND DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROPPING BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR THE AREA.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...USED A MET/MAV BLEND FOR
TEMPERATURES.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BRINGS ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. USED WPC SURFACE
FRONT FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION/WIND TIMING. END RESULT WAS VERY
LITTLE CHANGE FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN THE GRIDS.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...USED WPC EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE
AS FIRST GUESS FOR GRIDS. ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THAT
DATA SET.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL BE LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS IS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM PER WPC MAPS AND DISCUSSION.
TRIMMED BACK PRECIPITATION START TIME IN PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
LATER ON MONDAY. ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED DOWN THE ROAD
AS SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS TEND TO BE EVER SLOWER THAN INITIALLY
FORECAST.

REVIEWING THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...
OVERALL VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

EVENING UPDATE...THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS GENERALLY OVER FOR
MOST TERMINALS. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SHORTLY, BUT IT IS TOO SMALL OF A THREAT TO MENTION IN THE TAFS
NOW.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING; ALTHOUGH, A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR IS
POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
WHILE ISOLATED TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THUNDER FOR THE TAF SITES...SO THIS WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS. WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS EVENING AND BECOME GUSTY AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTS TO BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 KNOT
RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE, VFR AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...VFR CONDS WITH NW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT
RANGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI THROUGH SAT...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. MDT CONFIDENCE.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS.  MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE, WE DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE GALE WATCH TO
A GALE WARNING FOR OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, BEGINNING AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY AND LASTING INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS AND SEAS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE INTO SCA TERRITORY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS PLUS ARE
EXPECTED. FOR DELAWARE BAY, WE MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND
EXTENDED IT INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS FOR THE BAY SHOULD
PRIMARILY TOP OUT AROUND 30 KNOTS DURING WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...GALE FORCE GUSTS LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WITH
GUSTS AROUND 35 KT AND POSSIBLY HIGHER. A GALE WARNING HAS NOW BEEN
ISSUED. WIND SUBSIDING LATER THU.

FRI THROUGH SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME, THOUGH WE COULD APPROACH SCA WIND BY SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL BE WELL OVER FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA.
RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY BUT FUEL MOISTURE
VALUES WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM AS RAINFALL TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT. BOTTOM-LINE IS THAT THERE IS ENOUGH OF A RISK BASED ON
THE WINDS AND FUEL MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY A WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY.

PROBLEMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. THOUGH WINDS GUSTS MAY
BE A LITTLE LOWER, RH VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20% IN MANY LOCATIONS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
PROBLEM. MONITOR THE FORECAST AS FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE
REQUIRED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/JOHNSON/KLINE
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230047
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
847 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...BUT
WILL BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER FRONT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST...COLD AIR ADVECTION
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. STRATOCU DECK
WORKING SOUTH FROM NRN OHIO WILL STREAM INTO THE CWA TONIGHT
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. LLVL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH AND HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT AND WEDS MORNING. UPPER TROUGH
PULLS AWAY QUICKLY WEDS MIDDAY WITH CLEARING
SKIES...HOWEVER...MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WARM AIR ADVECTS
VIA SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA OVER THE
WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS FRIDAY WITH FRONT AND CHANCE POPS SATURDAY IN
UNSTABLE COLD ADVECTION AS A REINFORCING BOUNDARY CROSSES THE
REGION. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE CLEARED ALL TERMINALS TO THE EAST LEAVING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS IN THEIR WAKE WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. SOME ADDITIONAL COLD
ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THEY SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT ON
WEDNESDAY...YIELDING TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS STILL AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230047
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
847 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...BUT
WILL BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER FRONT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST...COLD AIR ADVECTION
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. STRATOCU DECK
WORKING SOUTH FROM NRN OHIO WILL STREAM INTO THE CWA TONIGHT
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. LLVL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH AND HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT AND WEDS MORNING. UPPER TROUGH
PULLS AWAY QUICKLY WEDS MIDDAY WITH CLEARING
SKIES...HOWEVER...MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WARM AIR ADVECTS
VIA SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA OVER THE
WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS FRIDAY WITH FRONT AND CHANCE POPS SATURDAY IN
UNSTABLE COLD ADVECTION AS A REINFORCING BOUNDARY CROSSES THE
REGION. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE CLEARED ALL TERMINALS TO THE EAST LEAVING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS IN THEIR WAKE WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. SOME ADDITIONAL COLD
ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THEY SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT ON
WEDNESDAY...YIELDING TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS STILL AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 222353
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
753 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A
SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SFC COLD FRONT IS STILL BACK OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVANCE EASTWARD THIS EVENING...THEN OFF THE COAST AROUND 06Z.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT ONLY ISOLATED -SHRA
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA EARLY THIS EVENING...AND ALSO
ISOLATED -SHRA OVER WEST VA NEAR THE COLD FRONT. BASED ON
THIS...HAVE DECREASED POPS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING DUE TO LACK
OF WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PCPN. HOWEVER...DID NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE
POPS AS ISOLD SHWRS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. A QUICKLY CLEARING SKY IS EXPECTED AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.
WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING AS QUICKLY
AS PROGGED BY COOLER MAV GUIDANCE...SO HAVE OPTED TOWARDS WARMER
ENVELOPE OF MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THE BOARD. EARLY MORNING LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND AND OVER THE EASTERN SHORE...TO
LOW 50S SE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODIFYING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW ON
WED...WITH A BREEZY TO WINDY AND VERY DRY DAY EXPECTED. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH ON THE ERN SHORE AND
25-35 MPH ELSEWHERE (SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW). SKIES WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR ALTHOUGH A FEW SCATTERED CU WILL PERSIST ACRS THE ERN
SHORE DUE TO COLD POOL ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
(LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE). LOCAL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER, WITH
DEWPOINTS WILL MIX INTO THE UPR 20S/LOW 30S (YIELDING MINIMUM RH
VALUES IN THE MID 20S INLAND) AND WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT,
BUMPED TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND ALL ZONES (NOT MUCH
DIFFERENCE AT THE COAST DUE TO STRONG NW FLOW). HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM NW WED NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES. EARLY
MORNING LOWS THU MORNING IN THE MID-UPPER 30S ALONG/W OF I-95 TO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE (DO NOT EXPECT A FREEZE AND
PROBABLY TOO DRY FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF FROST).

DRY AGAIN ON THU AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE REGION, BEFORE
SLIDING OFF OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE THU/ERY FRIDAY. HIGHS THURS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S (A LITTLE COOLER NEAR THE COAST). ONCE AGAIN,
MIN RH VALUES FALL INTO THE 20S THU AFTN BUT WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER. NEXT FAST MOVING WAVE OF MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE W ON
FRI. HAVE BLENDED THE FASTER GFS AND SLOWER NAM/ECMWF FOR
NOW...WITH CHC POPS ALL ZONES AT SOME POINT...MAINLY FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTN. WARMER SSW FLOW SHOULD PUSH HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO EVOLVE INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED...LIKELY RESULTING IN A
COOL/WET PERIOD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TENDS TO STRUGGLE WITH BLOCKY FLOW...AND THIS
IS NO EXCEPTION. TRENDED TOWARD ENSEMBLE AND WPC GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH
OUT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. OVERALL...UPPER PATTERN WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS...HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES
AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER SE CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. WHILE
MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE MODELS...A SECOND (DRY) COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SAT. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING COOLER/DRIER AIR TO THE REGION ON SUN. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION (DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL IT COULD BE FROM THE CAROLINAS NWD TO THE MASON DIXON LINE).
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL
PROGRESS EWD SUN-TUES...TAPPING INTO GULF MOISTURE. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUN NIGHT-TUES BASED ON UNCERTAINTY...BUT
INCREASE TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS TUES NIGHT AS THE UPPER/SFC LOW GETS
CLOSER.

HAVE TRENDED TO THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S SUN-TUES. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 23Z...PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS HAVE PRACTICALLY DISSIPATED AND DID
NOT INCLUDE ANY PCPN IN THE TAFS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WAS MOVING
THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS AND IS FORECAST TO REACH RIC/SBY SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ECG AROUND 09Z/5AM EDT. BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTY NW OR N WINDS WILL
IMMEDIATELY FOLLOW THE FRONT. WINDS DIMINISH SOME (EXCEPT AT ORF)
A COUPLE OF HOURS FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THEN INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTS MAY REACH OVER 30 KNOTS
AT SBY AND AROUND 25 KNOTS AT THE OTHER TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY WITH SCT SHWRS/TSTMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY BUT THE WEEKEND
IS FORECAST TO BE DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS ALIGNED ALONG THE WATERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT LOCATES OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS.
S-SW WINDS CURRENTLY OVER THE WATERS AVERAGING 10-15 KT WITH WAVES
1-2 FT AND SEAS 3-4 FT. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS THIS
EVENING AS A STRONG NW SURGE COMMENCES. PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS BTWN BUILDING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. 925MB WINDS INCREASE TO 35-40
KT AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHARPEN. THE RESULT WILL BE SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS...INCLUDING THE RIVERS AND SOUND.
DECIDED TO NOT GO LOW-END GALE BASED ON THE LIMITED STRENGTH OF
THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COOL WATERS. HOWEVER...AN OCCASIONAL
GUST TO 35 KT IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN BAY AND NRN
COASTAL WATERS. TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AT KSBY YIELDS GUST TO ONLY
30-33 KT. WILL MONITOR FUTURE OBS/MODEL TRENDS TO SEE IF GALE
HEADLINES ARE NEEDED. REGARDLESS...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
RAPIDLY AROUND MIDNIGHT. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT IN THE
BAY...2-3 FT IN THE RIVERS AND 2 FT IN THE SOUND. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 5-8 FT...HIGHEST IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD SWD OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS AS SCA CONDITIONS
PERSIST THRU THE DAY. THE HIGH WILL NUDGE OVER THE WATERS WED
NIGHT...ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO
DIMINISH. SCA HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION
THURS...LOCATING OFFSHORE LATE THURS. FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE
SOUTH...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT LATE THURS. SCA HEADLINES
FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND DROP OFF LATE WEDS...LOWER JAMES AND BAY
THURS MORNING.

A WEAKER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS FRI AFTERNOON WITH A
SECOND COLDER FRONT CROSSING THE WATERS SATURDAY. SCA CONDITIONS
MAY BE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT...PRODUCING A FEW
SHOWERS. GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON ALREADY DRY
FUELS.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY...AND AFTER
COORDINATION WITH STATE FIRE OFFICIALS/NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WILL GO
AHEAD AND ISSUE A FIRE WX WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VA AND THE LOWER MD EASTER SHORE.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONGEST (20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
35-40 MPH) ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM FVX-PTB-LFI...AND THIS IS
WHERE THE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. FARTHER SOUTH...WINDS WILL NOT BE
AS STRONG (10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH)...SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAN
TOWARD AN SPS FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER INSTEAD. WILL LIKELY
UPGRADE THE FIRE WX WATCH TO A RED FLAG EITHER LATE THIS EVENING
OR OVERNIGHT. MIN RH VALUES WED AFTN WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 20-30%
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

DRY CONDITIONS (MIN RH VALUES 20-25%) WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG. THIS WILL LIKELY
PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY FIRE WX STATEMENTS...EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE WHERE WINDS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ012>017-030>032.
VA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ048-049-061>064-068>078-081>086-089>091-
     094-099-100.
     INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VAZ060-065>067-079-080-087-088-092-
     093-095>098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...JDM/LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 222327
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
727 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A
SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SFC COLD FRONT IS STILL BACK OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVANCE EASTWARD THIS EVENING...THEN OFF THE COAST AROUND 06Z.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT ONLY ISOLATED -SHRA
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA EARLY THIS EVENING...AND ALSO
ISOLATED -SHRA OVER WEST VA NEAR THE COLD FRONT. BASED ON
THIS...HAVE DECREASED POPS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING DUE TO LACK
OF WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PCPN. HOWEVER...DID NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE
POPS AS ISOLD SHWRS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. A QUICKLY CLEARING SKY IS EXPECTED AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.
WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING AS QUICKLY
AS PROGGED BY COOLER MAV GUIDANCE...SO HAVE OPTED TOWARDS WARMER
ENVELOPE OF MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THE BOARD. EARLY MORNING LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND AND OVER THE EASTERN SHORE...TO
LOW 50S SE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODIFYING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW ON
WED...WITH A BREEZY TO WINDY AND VERY DRY DAY EXPECTED. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH ON THE ERN SHORE AND
25-35 MPH ELSEWHERE (SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW). SKIES WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR ALTHOUGH A FEW SCATTERED CU WILL PERSIST ACRS THE ERN
SHORE DUE TO COLD POOL ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
(LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE). LOCAL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER, WITH
DEWPOINTS WILL MIX INTO THE UPR 20S/LOW 30S (YIELDING MINIMUM RH
VALUES IN THE MID 20S INLAND) AND WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT,
BUMPED TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND ALL ZONES (NOT MUCH
DIFFERENCE AT THE COAST DUE TO STRONG NW FLOW). HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM NW WED NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES. EARLY
MORNING LOWS THU MORNING IN THE MID-UPPER 30S ALONG/W OF I-95 TO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE (DO NOT EXPECT A FREEZE AND
PROBABLY TOO DRY FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF FROST).

DRY AGAIN ON THU AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE REGION, BEFORE
SLIDING OFF OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE THU/ERY FRIDAY. HIGHS THURS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S (A LITTLE COOLER NEAR THE COAST). ONCE AGAIN,
MIN RH VALUES FALL INTO THE 20S THU AFTN BUT WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER. NEXT FAST MOVING WAVE OF MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE W ON
FRI. HAVE BLENDED THE FASTER GFS AND SLOWER NAM/ECMWF FOR
NOW...WITH CHC POPS ALL ZONES AT SOME POINT...MAINLY FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTN. WARMER SSW FLOW SHOULD PUSH HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO EVOLVE INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED...LIKELY RESULTING IN A
COOL/WET PERIOD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TENDS TO STRUGGLE WITH BLOCKY FLOW...AND THIS
IS NO EXCEPTION. TRENDED TOWARD ENSEMBLE AND WPC GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH
OUT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. OVERALL...UPPER PATTERN WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS...HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES
AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER SE CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. WHILE
MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE MODELS...A SECOND (DRY) COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SAT. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING COOLER/DRIER AIR TO THE REGION ON SUN. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION (DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL IT COULD BE FROM THE CAROLINAS NWD TO THE MASON DIXON LINE).
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL
PROGRESS EWD SUN-TUES...TAPPING INTO GULF MOISTURE. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUN NIGHT-TUES BASED ON UNCERTAINTY...BUT
INCREASE TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS TUES NIGHT AS THE UPPER/SFC LOW GETS
CLOSER.

HAVE TRENDED TO THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S SUN-TUES. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL SHWRS NOW CROSSING THE PIEDMONT HAVE THE BEST
CHC OF REACHING KRIC/KSBY OVER THE NEXT SVRL HRS SO HAVE ADDED A
2-3 HR TEMPO GROUP THERE. OTW...KEPT VCSH ACROSS SERN TAF SITES AFTR
20Z GIVING THE LATEST TRENDS OF THE PCPN WEAKENING AS IT CROSSES THE
MTS. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT THUNDER IN ATTM...
BEST LOCATION FOR ANY THUNDER TO OCCUR WOULD BE ACROSS SERN TAF SITES
BEFORE 00Z. OTW...SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE EXPECTED AS THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING. SKIES CLR BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY AFTR 06Z. STRONG CAA SETS IN LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH NW WINDS INCRG TO BTWN 15-25 KTS BY 12Z. HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE DELMARVA AND SERN COASTAL AREAS WEDNESDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY WITH SCT SHWRS/TSTRMS.

&&

.MARINE...
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS ALIGNED ALONG THE WATERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT LOCATES OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS.
S-SW WINDS CURRENTLY OVER THE WATERS AVERAGING 10-15 KT WITH WAVES
1-2 FT AND SEAS 3-4 FT. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS THIS
EVENING AS A STRONG NW SURGE COMMENCES. PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS BTWN BUILDING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. 925MB WINDS INCREASE TO 35-40
KT AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHARPEN. THE RESULT WILL BE SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS...INCLUDING THE RIVERS AND SOUND.
DECIDED TO NOT GO LOW-END GALE BASED ON THE LIMITED STRENGTH OF
THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COOL WATERS. HOWEVER...AN OCCASIONAL
GUST TO 35 KT IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN BAY AND NRN
COASTAL WATERS. TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AT KSBY YIELDS GUST TO ONLY
30-33 KT. WILL MONITOR FUTURE OBS/MODEL TRENDS TO SEE IF GALE
HEADLINES ARE NEEDED. REGARDLESS...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
RAPIDLY AROUND MIDNIGHT. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT IN THE
BAY...2-3 FT IN THE RIVERS AND 2 FT IN THE SOUND. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 5-8 FT...HIGHEST IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD SWD OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS AS SCA CONDITIONS
PERSIST THRU THE DAY. THE HIGH WILL NUDGE OVER THE WATERS WED
NIGHT...ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO
DIMINISH. SCA HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION
THURS...LOCATING OFFSHORE LATE THURS. FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE
SOUTH...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT LATE THURS. SCA HEADLINES
FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND DROP OFF LATE WEDS...LOWER JAMES AND BAY
THURS MORNING.

A WEAKER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS FRI AFTERNOON WITH A
SECOND COLDER FRONT CROSSING THE WATERS SATURDAY. SCA CONDITIONS
MAY BE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT...PRODUCING A FEW
SHOWERS. GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON ALREADY DRY
FUELS.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY...AND AFTER
COORDINATION WITH STATE FIRE OFFICIALS/NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WILL GO
AHEAD AND ISSUE A FIRE WX WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VA AND THE LOWER MD EASTER SHORE.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONGEST (20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
35-40 MPH) ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM FVX-PTB-LFI...AND THIS IS
WHERE THE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. FARTHER SOUTH...WINDS WILL NOT BE
AS STRONG (10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH)...SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAN
TOWARD AN SPS FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER INSTEAD. WILL LIKELY
UPGRADE THE FIRE WX WATCH TO A RED FLAG EITHER LATE THIS EVENING
OR OVERNIGHT. MIN RH VALUES WED AFTN WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 20-30%
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

DRY CONDITIONS (MIN RH VALUES 20-25%) WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG. THIS WILL LIKELY
PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY FIRE WX STATEMENTS...EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE WHERE WINDS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ012>017-030>032.
VA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ048-049-061>064-068>078-081>086-089>091-
     094-099-100.
     INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VAZ060-065>067-079-080-087-088-092-
     093-095>098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...JDM/LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...SAM
FIRE WEATHER...JDM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 222021
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
421 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES A WEAK LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACRS THE
PIEDMONT AS SEEN IN OBS/PRESSURE FALLS. ACTUAL COLD FRONT STILL
ALONG WEST SLOPE OF THE APPALACHIANS.

DEEP LAYER WSW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WNW AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ON RADAR OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS
BUT MUCH OF THIS HAS NOT EVEN BEEN MEASURABLE THUS FAR. THINK BEST
CHC FOR ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL COME W/ THE FRONT BETWEEN
ABOUT 6 AND 10 PM (CURRENTLY SOME CONVECTION IS BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER SW PA). THE WSW DRYING FLOW E OF THE MTNS MAY KEEP
THIS FROM MAKING IT INTO AKQ CWA HOWEVER. HAVE INCLUDED SOME
LIKELY POPS OVER FAR WRN SECTIONS INTO ERLY EVENING...AND NRN
ZONES THROUGH 02Z. HAVE ALSO CONTINUED WITH ISOLATED TSTMS BUT IN
GENERAL THERE IS NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT FOR SEVERE WX GIVEN A SHORT
WINDOW WITH ML CAPES EVEN GETTING TO 500-1000 J/KG THROUGH 01Z.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 25-30 KT AS WELL...BUT
CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 40-45 MPH
GIVEN THE DEEP MIXING. QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE
TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.

SHOWERS/ISO THUNDERSTORMS PUSH OFFSHORE LATE THIS EVENING W/ A
QUICKLY CLEARING SKY THROUGH MIDNIGHT, AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING AS QUICKLY AS PROGGED BY COOLER MAV
GUIDANCE...SO HAVE OPTED TOWARDS WARMER ENVELOPE OF MOS GUIDANCE
ACROSS THE BOARD. EARLY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S
INLAND AND OVER THE EASTERN SHORE...TO LOW 50S SE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODIFYING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW ON
WED...WITH A BREEZY TO WINDY AND VERY DRY DAY EXPECTED. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH ON THE ERN SHORE AND
25-35 MPH ELSEWHERE (SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW). SKIES WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR ALTHOUGH A FEW SCATTERED CU WILL PERSIST ACRS THE ERN
SHORE DUE TO COLD POOL ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
(LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE). LOCAL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER, WITH
DEWPOINTS WILL MIX INTO THE UPR 20S/LOW 30S (YIELDING MINIMUM RH
VALUES IN THE MID 20S INLAND) AND WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT,
BUMPED TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND ALL ZONES (NOT MUCH
DIFFERENCE AT THE COAST DUE TO STRONG NW FLOW). HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM NW WED NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES. EARLY
MORNING LOWS THU MORNING IN THE MID-UPPER 30S ALONG/W OF I-95 TO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE (DO NOT EXPECT A FREEZE AND
PROBABLY TOO DRY FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF FROST).

DRY AGAIN ON THU AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE REGION, BEFORE
SLIDING OFF OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE THU/ERY FRIDAY. HIGHS THURS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S (A LITTLE COOLER NEAR THE COAST). ONCE AGAIN,
MIN RH VALUES FALL INTO THE 20S THU AFTN BUT WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER. NEXT FAST MOVING WAVE OF MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE W ON
FRI. HAVE BLENDED THE FASTER GFS AND SLOWER NAM/ECMWF FOR
NOW...WITH CHC POPS ALL ZONES AT SOME POINT...MAINLY FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTN. WARMER SSW FLOW SHOULD PUSH HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO EVOLVE INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED...LIKELY RESULTING IN A
COOL/WET PERIOD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TENDS TO STRUGGLE WITH BLOCKY FLOW...AND THIS
IS NO EXCEPTION. TRENDED TOWARD ENSEMBLE AND WPC GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH
OUT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. OVERALL...UPPER PATTERN WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS...HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES
AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER SE CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. WHILE
MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE MODELS...A SECOND (DRY) COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SAT. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING COOLER/DRIER AIR TO THE REGION ON SUN. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION (DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL IT COULD BE FROM THE CAROLINAS NWD TO THE MASON DIXON LINE).
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL
PROGRESS EWD SUN-TUES...TAPPING INTO GULF MOISTURE. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUN NIGHT-TUES BASED ON UNCERTAINTY...BUT
INCREASE TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS TUES NIGHT AS THE UPPER/SFC LOW GETS
CLOSER.

HAVE TRENDED TO THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S SUN-TUES. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL SHWRS NOW CROSSING THE PIEDMONT HAVE THE BEST
CHC OF REACHING KRIC/KSBY OVER THE NEXT SVRL HRS SO HAVE ADDED A
2-3 HR TEMPO GROUP THERE. OTW...KEPT VCSH ACROSS SERN TAF SITES AFTR
20Z GIVING THE LATEST TRENDS OF THE PCPN WEAKENING AS IT CROSSES THE
MTS. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT THUNDER IN ATTM...
BEST LOCATION FOR ANY THUNDER TO OCCUR WOULD BE ACROSS SERN TAF SITES
BEFORE 00Z. OTW...SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE EXPECTED AS THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING. SKIES CLR BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY AFTR 06Z. STRONG CAA SETS IN LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH NW WINDS INCRG TO BTWN 15-25 KTS BY 12Z. HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE DELMARVA AND SERN COASTAL AREAS WEDNESDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY WITH SCT SHWRS/TSTRMS.

&&

.MARINE...
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS ALIGNED ALONG THE WATERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT LOCATES OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS.
S-SW WINDS CURRENTLY OVER THE WATERS AVERAGING 10-15 KT WITH WAVES
1-2 FT AND SEAS 3-4 FT. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS THIS
EVENING AS A STRONG NW SURGE COMMENCES. PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS BTWN BUILDING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. 925MB WINDS INCREASE TO 35-40
KT AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHARPEN. THE RESULT WILL BE SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS...INCLUDING THE RIVERS AND SOUND.
DECIDED TO NOT GO LOW-END GALE BASED ON THE LIMITED STRENGTH OF
THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COOL WATERS. HOWEVER...AN OCCASIONAL
GUST TO 35 KT IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN BAY AND NRN
COASTAL WATERS. TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AT KSBY YIELDS GUST TO ONLY
30-33 KT. WILL MONITOR FUTURE OBS/MODEL TRENDS TO SEE IF GALE
HEADLINES ARE NEEDED. REGARDLESS...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
RAPIDLY AROUND MIDNIGHT. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT IN THE
BAY...2-3 FT IN THE RIVERS AND 2 FT IN THE SOUND. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 5-8 FT...HIGHEST IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD SWD OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS AS SCA CONDITIONS
PERSIST THRU THE DAY. THE HIGH WILL NUDGE OVER THE WATERS WED
NIGHT...ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO
DIMINISH. SCA HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION
THURS...LOCATING OFFSHORE LATE THURS. FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE
SOUTH...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT LATE THURS. SCA HEADLINES
FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND DROP OFF LATE WEDS...LOWER JAMES AND BAY
THURS MORNING.

A WEAKER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS FRI AFTERNOON WITH A
SECOND COLDER FRONT CROSSING THE WATERS SATURDAY. SCA CONDITIONS
MAY BE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING...PRODUCING A
FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. GENERALLY LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON ALREADY DRY FUELS.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY...AND AFTER
COORDINATION WITH STATE FIRE OFFICIALS/NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WILL GO
AHEAD AND ISSUE A FIRE WX WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VA AND THE LOWER MD EASTER SHORE.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONGEST (20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
35-40 MPH) ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM FVX-PTB-LFI...AND THIS IS
WHERE THE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. FARTHER SOUTH...WINDS WILL NOT BE
AS STRONG (10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH)...SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAN
TOWARD AN SPS FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER INSTEAD. WILL LET CURRENT LINE
OF SHOWERS CLEAR THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE ISSUING THE SPS.
WILL LIKELY UPGRADE THE FIRE WX WATCH TO A RED FLAG EITHER LATE THIS
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. MIN RH VALUES WED AFTN WILL DROP TO BETWEEN
20-30% FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

DRY CONDITIONS (MIN RH VALUES 20-25%) WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG. THIS WILL LIKELY
PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY FIRE WX STATEMENTS...EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE WHERE WINDS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ048-049-061>064-069>078-081>086-089>091-
     094-099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...SAM
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 222005
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
405 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES A WEAK LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACRS THE
PIEDMONT AS SEEN IN OBS/PRESSURE FALLS. ACTUAL COLD FRONT STILL
ALONG WEST SLOPE OF THE APPALACHIANS.

DEEP LAYER WSW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WNW AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ON RADAR OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS
BUT MUCH OF THIS HAS NOT EVEN BEEN MEASURABLE THUS FAR. THINK BEST
CHC FOR ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL COME W/ THE FRONT BETWEEN
ABOUT 6 AND 10 PM (CURRENTLY SOME CONVECTION IS BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER SW PA). THE WSW DRYING FLOW E OF THE MTNS MAY KEEP
THIS FROM MAKING IT INTO AKQ CWA HOWEVER. HAVE INCLUDED SOME
LIKELY POPS OVER FAR WRN SECTIONS INTO ERLY EVENING...AND NRN
ZONES THROUGH 02Z. HAVE ALSO CONTINUED WITH ISOLATED TSTMS BUT IN
GENERAL THERE IS NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT FOR SEVERE WX GIVEN A SHORT
WINDOW WITH ML CAPES EVEN GETTING TO 500-1000 J/KG THROUGH 01Z.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 25-30 KT AS WELL...BUT
CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 40-45 MPH
GIVEN THE DEEP MIXING. QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE
TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.

SHOWERS/ISO THUNDERSTORMS PUSH OFFSHORE LATE THIS EVENING W/ A
QUICKLY CLEARING SKY THROUGH MIDNIGHT, AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING AS QUICKLY AS PROGGED BY COOLER MAV
GUIDANCE...SO HAVE OPTED TOWARDS WARMER ENVELOPE OF MOS GUIDANCE
ACROSS THE BOARD. EARLY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S
INLAND AND OVER THE EASTERN SHORE...TO LOW 50S SE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODIFYING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW ON
WED...WITH A BREEZY TO WINDY AND VERY DRY DAY EXPECTED. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH ON THE ERN SHORE AND
25-35 MPH ELSEWHERE (SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW). SKIES WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR ALTHOUGH A FEW SCATTERED CU WILL PERSIST ACRS THE ERN
SHORE DUE TO COLD POOL ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
(LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE). LOCAL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER, WITH
DEWPOINTS WILL MIX INTO THE UPR 20S/LOW 30S (YIELDING MINIMUM RH
VALUES IN THE MID 20S INLAND) AND WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT,
BUMPED TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND ALL ZONES (NOT MUCH
DIFFERENCE AT THE COAST DUE TO STRONG NW FLOW). HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM NW WED NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES. EARLY
MORNING LOWS THU MORNING IN THE MID-UPPER 30S ALONG/W OF I-95 TO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE (DO NOT EXPECT A FREEZE AND
PROBABLY TOO DRY FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF FROST).

DRY AGAIN ON THU AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE REGION, BEFORE
SLIDING OFF OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE THU/ERY FRIDAY. HIGHS THURS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S (A LITTLE COOLER NEAR THE COAST). ONCE AGAIN,
MIN RH VALUES FALL INTO THE 20S THU AFTN BUT WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER. NEXT FAST MOVING WAVE OF MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE W ON
FRI. HAVE BLENDED THE FASTER GFS AND SLOWER NAM/ECMWF FOR
NOW...WITH CHC POPS ALL ZONES AT SOME POINT...MAINLY FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTN. WARMER SSW FLOW SHOULD PUSH HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO EVOLVE INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED...LIKELY RESULTING IN A
COOL/WET PERIOD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TENDS TO STRUGGLE WITH BLOCKY FLOW...AND THIS
IS NO EXCEPTION. TRENDED TOWARD ENSEMBLE AND WPC GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH
OUT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. OVERALL...UPPER PATTERN WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS...HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES
AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER SE CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. WHILE
MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE MODELS...A SECOND (DRY) COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SAT. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING COOLER/DRIER AIR TO THE REGION ON SUN. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION (DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL IT COULD BE FROM THE CAROLINAS NWD TO THE MASON DIXON LINE).
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL
PROGRESS EWD SUN-TUES...TAPPING INTO GULF MOISTURE. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUN NIGHT-TUES BASED ON UNCERTAINTY...BUT
INCREASE TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS TUES NIGHT AS THE UPPER/SFC LOW GETS
CLOSER.

HAVE TRENDED TO THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S SUN-TUES. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL SHWRS NOW CROSSING THE PIEDMONT HAVE THE BEST
CHC OF REACHING KRIC/KSBY OVER THE NEXT SVRL HRS SO HAVE ADDED A
2-3 HR TEMPO GROUP THERE. OTW...KEPT VCSH ACROSS SERN TAF SITES AFTR
20Z GIVING THE LATEST TRENDS OF THE PCPN WEAKENING AS IT CROSSES THE
MTS. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT THUNDER IN ATTM...
BEST LOCATION FOR ANY THUNDER TO OCCUR WOULD BE ACROSS SERN TAF SITES
BEFORE 00Z. OTW...SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE EXPECTED AS THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING. SKIES CLR BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY AFTR 06Z. STRONG CAA SETS IN LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH NW WINDS INCRG TO BTWN 15-25 KTS BY 12Z. HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE DELMARVA AND SERN COASTAL AREAS WEDNESDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY WITH SCT SHWRS/TSTRMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE FINALLY SUBSIDED BELOW 5 FT IN THE COASTAL WATERS THANKS
TO SLY FLOW. HAVE CANCELLED SCA HEADLINES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...THE LULL WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. SOLID SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
A STRONG NWLY SURGE ARRIVES OVER THE WATER. STRONG GRADIENT WILL
PRODUCE 35-40 KT 925MB WINDS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY OVER THE WATER.
WILL LEAVE AS SCA ATTM...BUT WILL RE-EVALUATE FOR THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST PACKAGE.

PREV DISCUSSION...
LIGHT WINDS AROUND 5 KT ARE GRADUALLY TURNING FROM EAST
TO SOUTH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE OFFSHORE.
MEANWHILE...A SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
MORNING AND THEN CROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTN/EVENING. AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES THE WATERS THIS AFTN...WINDS WILL BECOME SW AND
INCREASE TO 10-15 KT. A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT MAY BE POSSIBLE
OVER CHES BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND DURING THIS TIME...BUT AM STILL
ANTICIPATING PREDOMINANT CONDITIONS TO BE SUB-SCA. MEANWHILE FOR
TODAY...ONSHORE SWELL WITH 10-11 SECOND PERIODS WILL PREVENT SEAS
FROM SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT FOR THE GREATER PART OF
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OUT NEAR 20 NM. THEREFORE SCA FLAGS FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TODAY. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS OF 25-35 KT. THE
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS THIS EVENING AND PUSHES OFFSHORE AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF STRONG POST-FRONTAL SCA CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED DUE TO A DECENT CAA SURGE LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. A FAVORABLE NW WIND DIRECTION WILL FURTHER ENHANCE WIND
SPEEDS...BUT WILL GENERALLY PREVENT SEAS FROM BUILDING ANY HIGHER
THAN 5-6 FT...WITH 3-4 FT WAVES ON THE BAY (LOCALLY UP TO 5 FT SRN
BAY LATE TONIGHT) AND 2-3 FT ON THE RIVERS. WILL SEE A
SECONDARY...ALBEIT WEAKER... COLD AIR SURGE WED NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY GRADUALLY IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY THU
(ALTHOUGH TRENDS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER TO BUILD A SFC RIDGE INTO THE
REGION SO IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY BREEZY IN NW FLOW THROUGH THU AFTN
FOR NRN COASTAL WATERS IN PARTICULAR). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY LATE THU AFTN INTO FRI.

SCA FLAGS FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS WERE EXTENDED THROUGH WED NIGHT
FOR A COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SEAS. ADDITIONAL FLAGS WERE HOISTED
FOR THE BAY/SOUND/RIVERS BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND
PERSISTING INTO EARLY WED EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRONG NW
SURGE TONIGHT AND CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS ON WED BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING...PRODUCING A
FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. GENERALLY LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON ALREADY DRY FUELS.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY...AND AFTER
COORDINATION WITH STATE FIRE OFFICIALS/NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WILL GO
AHEAD AND ISSUE A FIRE WX WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VA AND THE LOWER MD EASTER SHORE.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONGEST (20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
35-40 MPH) ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM FVX-PTB-LFI...AND THIS IS
WHERE THE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. FARTHER SOUTH...WINDS WILL NOT BE
AS STRONG (10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH)...SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAN
TOWARD AN SPS FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER INSTEAD. WILL LET CURRENT LINE
OF SHOWERS CLEAR THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE ISSUING THE SPS.
WILL LIKELY UPGRADE THE FIRE WX WATCH TO A RED FLAG EITHER LATE THIS
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. MIN RH VALUES WED AFTN WILL DROP TO BETWEEN
20-30% FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

DRY CONDITIONS (MIN RH VALUES 20-25%) WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG. THIS WILL LIKELY
PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY FIRE WX STATEMENTS...EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE WHERE WINDS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ048-049-061>064-069>078-081>086-089>091-
     094-099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...BMD/SAM
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 221941
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
341 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
HIGH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH AND BRING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND BEGINS TO AFFECT OUR
REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH LATE-DAY, A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS
EASTWARD, EVENTUALLY CROSSING OUR FORECAST AREA BY LATE EVENING.
MODEL GUIDANCE AND ACTUAL OBSERVATIONS TO OUR WEST CONTINUE TO SHOW
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND MOST AREAS WILL ONLY
SEE A TENTH TO PERHAPS TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN FROM SHOWERS AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO LIMITED
INSTABILITY THROUGH LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING, BUT WE DID KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST BASED ON FORECAST
CAPES OFF THE GFS/NAM AND ECMWF. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST EARLY, THEN BECOMING MORE WESTERLY FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE QUICKLY DECREASE POPS AFTER ABOUT 01Z FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE. THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN, COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. IN FACT, THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. FOR TEMPERATURES, WE
MOSTLY TOOK A MET/MAV GUIDANCE BLEND WITH SOME LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS AND
EXPECT LOWS TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A WINDY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS TO OUR NORTH OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST GRADUALLY BUILDS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FELT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY, WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30
TO 35 MPH RANGE. WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD, A
COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF OUR FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS
AND SOME SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY, WITH 850/925MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS REACHING MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TOWARD OUR AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR MAINE MOVES SLOWLY AWAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN STRONG
WINDS OVER AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH THE
COMBINED AFFECT OF THE STRONG WINDS AND DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROPPING BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR THE AREA.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...USED A MET/MAV BLEND FOR
TEMPERATURES.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BRINGS ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. USED WPC SURFACE
FRONT FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION/WIND TIMING. END RESULT WAS VERY
LITTLE CHANGE FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN THE GRIDS.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...USED WPC EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE
AS FIRST GUESS FOR GRIDS. ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THAT
DATA SET.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL BE LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS IS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM PER WPC MAPS AND DISCUSSION.
TRIMMED BACK PRECIPITATION START TIME IN PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
LATER ON MONDAY. ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED DOWN THE ROAD
AS SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS TEND TO BE EVER SLOWER THAN INITIALLY
FORECAST.

REVIEWING THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...
OVERALL VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING;
ALTHOUGH, A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS,
MAINLY DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES. WHILE ISOLATED TSTMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER FOR THE TAF SITES...SO
THIS WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING AND BECOME
GUSTY AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTS TO
BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 KNOT RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE, VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYTIME
WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...VFR CONDS WITH NW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT
RANGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI THROUGH SAT...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. MDT CONFIDENCE.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS.  MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE, WE DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE GALE WATCH TO
A GALE WARNING FOR OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, BEGINNING AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY AND LASTING INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS AND SEAS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE INTO SCA TERRITORY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS PLUS ARE
EXPECTED. FOR DELAWARE BAY, WE MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND
EXTENDED IT INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS FOR THE BAY SHOULD
PRIMARILY TOP OUT AROUND 30 KNOTS DURING WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...GALE FORCE GUSTS LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WITH
GUSTS AROUND 35 KT AND POSSIBLY HIGHER. A GALE WARNING HAS NOW BEEN
ISSUED. WIND SUBSIDING LATER THU.

FRI THROUGH SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME, THOUGH WE COULD APPROACH SCA WIND BY SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL BE WELL OVER FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA.
RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY BUT FUEL MOISTURE
VALUES WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM AS RAINFALL TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT. BOTTOM-LINE IS THAT THERE IS ENOUGH OF A RISK BASED ON
THE WINDS AND FUEL MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY A WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY.

PROBLEMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. THOUGH WINDS GUSTS MAY
BE A LITTLE LOWER, RH VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20% IN MANY LOCATIONS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
PROBLEM. MONITOR THE FORECAST AS FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE
REQUIRED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE
FIRE WEATHER...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE






000
FXUS61 KPHI 221941
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
341 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
HIGH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH AND BRING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND BEGINS TO AFFECT OUR
REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH LATE-DAY, A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS
EASTWARD, EVENTUALLY CROSSING OUR FORECAST AREA BY LATE EVENING.
MODEL GUIDANCE AND ACTUAL OBSERVATIONS TO OUR WEST CONTINUE TO SHOW
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND MOST AREAS WILL ONLY
SEE A TENTH TO PERHAPS TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN FROM SHOWERS AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO LIMITED
INSTABILITY THROUGH LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING, BUT WE DID KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST BASED ON FORECAST
CAPES OFF THE GFS/NAM AND ECMWF. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST EARLY, THEN BECOMING MORE WESTERLY FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE QUICKLY DECREASE POPS AFTER ABOUT 01Z FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE. THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN, COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. IN FACT, THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. FOR TEMPERATURES, WE
MOSTLY TOOK A MET/MAV GUIDANCE BLEND WITH SOME LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS AND
EXPECT LOWS TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A WINDY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS TO OUR NORTH OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST GRADUALLY BUILDS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FELT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY, WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30
TO 35 MPH RANGE. WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD, A
COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF OUR FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS
AND SOME SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY, WITH 850/925MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS REACHING MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TOWARD OUR AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR MAINE MOVES SLOWLY AWAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN STRONG
WINDS OVER AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH THE
COMBINED AFFECT OF THE STRONG WINDS AND DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROPPING BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR THE AREA.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...USED A MET/MAV BLEND FOR
TEMPERATURES.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BRINGS ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. USED WPC SURFACE
FRONT FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION/WIND TIMING. END RESULT WAS VERY
LITTLE CHANGE FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN THE GRIDS.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...USED WPC EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE
AS FIRST GUESS FOR GRIDS. ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THAT
DATA SET.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL BE LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS IS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM PER WPC MAPS AND DISCUSSION.
TRIMMED BACK PRECIPITATION START TIME IN PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
LATER ON MONDAY. ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED DOWN THE ROAD
AS SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS TEND TO BE EVER SLOWER THAN INITIALLY
FORECAST.

REVIEWING THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...
OVERALL VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING;
ALTHOUGH, A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS,
MAINLY DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES. WHILE ISOLATED TSTMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER FOR THE TAF SITES...SO
THIS WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING AND BECOME
GUSTY AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTS TO
BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 KNOT RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE, VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYTIME
WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...VFR CONDS WITH NW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT
RANGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI THROUGH SAT...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. MDT CONFIDENCE.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS.  MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE, WE DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE GALE WATCH TO
A GALE WARNING FOR OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, BEGINNING AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY AND LASTING INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS AND SEAS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE INTO SCA TERRITORY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS PLUS ARE
EXPECTED. FOR DELAWARE BAY, WE MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND
EXTENDED IT INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS FOR THE BAY SHOULD
PRIMARILY TOP OUT AROUND 30 KNOTS DURING WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...GALE FORCE GUSTS LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WITH
GUSTS AROUND 35 KT AND POSSIBLY HIGHER. A GALE WARNING HAS NOW BEEN
ISSUED. WIND SUBSIDING LATER THU.

FRI THROUGH SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME, THOUGH WE COULD APPROACH SCA WIND BY SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL BE WELL OVER FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA.
RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY BUT FUEL MOISTURE
VALUES WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM AS RAINFALL TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT. BOTTOM-LINE IS THAT THERE IS ENOUGH OF A RISK BASED ON
THE WINDS AND FUEL MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY A WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY.

PROBLEMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. THOUGH WINDS GUSTS MAY
BE A LITTLE LOWER, RH VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20% IN MANY LOCATIONS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
PROBLEM. MONITOR THE FORECAST AS FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE
REQUIRED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE
FIRE WEATHER...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE






000
FXUS61 KPHI 221941
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
341 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
HIGH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH AND BRING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND BEGINS TO AFFECT OUR
REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH LATE-DAY, A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS
EASTWARD, EVENTUALLY CROSSING OUR FORECAST AREA BY LATE EVENING.
MODEL GUIDANCE AND ACTUAL OBSERVATIONS TO OUR WEST CONTINUE TO SHOW
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND MOST AREAS WILL ONLY
SEE A TENTH TO PERHAPS TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN FROM SHOWERS AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO LIMITED
INSTABILITY THROUGH LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING, BUT WE DID KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST BASED ON FORECAST
CAPES OFF THE GFS/NAM AND ECMWF. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST EARLY, THEN BECOMING MORE WESTERLY FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE QUICKLY DECREASE POPS AFTER ABOUT 01Z FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE. THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN, COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. IN FACT, THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. FOR TEMPERATURES, WE
MOSTLY TOOK A MET/MAV GUIDANCE BLEND WITH SOME LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS AND
EXPECT LOWS TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A WINDY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS TO OUR NORTH OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST GRADUALLY BUILDS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FELT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY, WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30
TO 35 MPH RANGE. WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD, A
COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF OUR FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS
AND SOME SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY, WITH 850/925MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS REACHING MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TOWARD OUR AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR MAINE MOVES SLOWLY AWAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN STRONG
WINDS OVER AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH THE
COMBINED AFFECT OF THE STRONG WINDS AND DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROPPING BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR THE AREA.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...USED A MET/MAV BLEND FOR
TEMPERATURES.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BRINGS ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. USED WPC SURFACE
FRONT FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION/WIND TIMING. END RESULT WAS VERY
LITTLE CHANGE FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN THE GRIDS.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...USED WPC EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE
AS FIRST GUESS FOR GRIDS. ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THAT
DATA SET.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL BE LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS IS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM PER WPC MAPS AND DISCUSSION.
TRIMMED BACK PRECIPITATION START TIME IN PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
LATER ON MONDAY. ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED DOWN THE ROAD
AS SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS TEND TO BE EVER SLOWER THAN INITIALLY
FORECAST.

REVIEWING THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...
OVERALL VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING;
ALTHOUGH, A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS,
MAINLY DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES. WHILE ISOLATED TSTMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER FOR THE TAF SITES...SO
THIS WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING AND BECOME
GUSTY AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTS TO
BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 KNOT RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE, VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYTIME
WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...VFR CONDS WITH NW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT
RANGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI THROUGH SAT...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. MDT CONFIDENCE.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS.  MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE, WE DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE GALE WATCH TO
A GALE WARNING FOR OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, BEGINNING AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY AND LASTING INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS AND SEAS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE INTO SCA TERRITORY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS PLUS ARE
EXPECTED. FOR DELAWARE BAY, WE MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND
EXTENDED IT INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS FOR THE BAY SHOULD
PRIMARILY TOP OUT AROUND 30 KNOTS DURING WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...GALE FORCE GUSTS LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WITH
GUSTS AROUND 35 KT AND POSSIBLY HIGHER. A GALE WARNING HAS NOW BEEN
ISSUED. WIND SUBSIDING LATER THU.

FRI THROUGH SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME, THOUGH WE COULD APPROACH SCA WIND BY SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL BE WELL OVER FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA.
RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY BUT FUEL MOISTURE
VALUES WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM AS RAINFALL TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT. BOTTOM-LINE IS THAT THERE IS ENOUGH OF A RISK BASED ON
THE WINDS AND FUEL MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY A WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY.

PROBLEMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. THOUGH WINDS GUSTS MAY
BE A LITTLE LOWER, RH VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20% IN MANY LOCATIONS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
PROBLEM. MONITOR THE FORECAST AS FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE
REQUIRED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE
FIRE WEATHER...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE






000
FXUS61 KPHI 221941
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
341 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
HIGH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH AND BRING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND BEGINS TO AFFECT OUR
REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH LATE-DAY, A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS
EASTWARD, EVENTUALLY CROSSING OUR FORECAST AREA BY LATE EVENING.
MODEL GUIDANCE AND ACTUAL OBSERVATIONS TO OUR WEST CONTINUE TO SHOW
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND MOST AREAS WILL ONLY
SEE A TENTH TO PERHAPS TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN FROM SHOWERS AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO LIMITED
INSTABILITY THROUGH LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING, BUT WE DID KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST BASED ON FORECAST
CAPES OFF THE GFS/NAM AND ECMWF. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST EARLY, THEN BECOMING MORE WESTERLY FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE QUICKLY DECREASE POPS AFTER ABOUT 01Z FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE. THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN, COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. IN FACT, THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. FOR TEMPERATURES, WE
MOSTLY TOOK A MET/MAV GUIDANCE BLEND WITH SOME LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS AND
EXPECT LOWS TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A WINDY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS TO OUR NORTH OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST GRADUALLY BUILDS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FELT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY, WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30
TO 35 MPH RANGE. WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD, A
COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF OUR FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS
AND SOME SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY, WITH 850/925MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS REACHING MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TOWARD OUR AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR MAINE MOVES SLOWLY AWAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN STRONG
WINDS OVER AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH THE
COMBINED AFFECT OF THE STRONG WINDS AND DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROPPING BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR THE AREA.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...USED A MET/MAV BLEND FOR
TEMPERATURES.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BRINGS ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. USED WPC SURFACE
FRONT FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION/WIND TIMING. END RESULT WAS VERY
LITTLE CHANGE FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN THE GRIDS.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...USED WPC EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE
AS FIRST GUESS FOR GRIDS. ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THAT
DATA SET.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL BE LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS IS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM PER WPC MAPS AND DISCUSSION.
TRIMMED BACK PRECIPITATION START TIME IN PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
LATER ON MONDAY. ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED DOWN THE ROAD
AS SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS TEND TO BE EVER SLOWER THAN INITIALLY
FORECAST.

REVIEWING THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...
OVERALL VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING;
ALTHOUGH, A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS,
MAINLY DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES. WHILE ISOLATED TSTMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER FOR THE TAF SITES...SO
THIS WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING AND BECOME
GUSTY AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTS TO
BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 KNOT RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE, VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYTIME
WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...VFR CONDS WITH NW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT
RANGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI THROUGH SAT...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. MDT CONFIDENCE.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS.  MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE, WE DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE GALE WATCH TO
A GALE WARNING FOR OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, BEGINNING AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY AND LASTING INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS AND SEAS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE INTO SCA TERRITORY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS PLUS ARE
EXPECTED. FOR DELAWARE BAY, WE MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND
EXTENDED IT INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS FOR THE BAY SHOULD
PRIMARILY TOP OUT AROUND 30 KNOTS DURING WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...GALE FORCE GUSTS LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WITH
GUSTS AROUND 35 KT AND POSSIBLY HIGHER. A GALE WARNING HAS NOW BEEN
ISSUED. WIND SUBSIDING LATER THU.

FRI THROUGH SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME, THOUGH WE COULD APPROACH SCA WIND BY SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL BE WELL OVER FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA.
RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY BUT FUEL MOISTURE
VALUES WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM AS RAINFALL TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT. BOTTOM-LINE IS THAT THERE IS ENOUGH OF A RISK BASED ON
THE WINDS AND FUEL MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY A WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY.

PROBLEMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. THOUGH WINDS GUSTS MAY
BE A LITTLE LOWER, RH VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20% IN MANY LOCATIONS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
PROBLEM. MONITOR THE FORECAST AS FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE
REQUIRED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE
FIRE WEATHER...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE






000
FXUS61 KLWX 221914
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
314 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 998 MB LOW JUST NORTH OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO THE SW OF THE LOW IN CENTRAL NY-WRN PA AND
BACK TOWARD THE OH RVR.

A BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND MOISTURE
PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD THRU THE I-95 CORRIDOR BEFORE
MOVING EAST OF THE CHSPK BAY LATE THIS AFTN. FARTHER UPSTREAM...A
NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT NEAR
PIT. HI-RES REFLECTIVITY MODELS THAT CAPTURED THIS CONVECTION
SIMULATE THIS LINE TO REACH THE ALLEGHENY FRONT BY 4 OR 5 PM BEFORE
MOVING SEWD THRU PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE ERY EVE. KEPT POPS
HIGHEST ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE THE BEST FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRUSH. TSTM
POTENTIAL IS LOW WITH PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER LIMITING
DESTABILIZATION.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE AREA THIS EVE. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL
USHER IN COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST
TO EAST TNGT AS WELL...ALTHOUGH STRATOCU WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
CLOUDY ALONG THE WRN SIDE OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW.
WINDS WILL STAY MIXED SO ADVECTION WILL BE MAIN SOURCE OF AIRMASS
COOLING TNGT. MIN TEMPS TNGT RANGE FROM THE NEAR 30F IN THE WRN
HIGHLANDS TO MID AND UPPER 40S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

HIPRES BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WED. PRESSURE RISES WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY BREEZY NW WINDS THAT GUST 30-40 MPH DURING THE
DAY. COLD AIRMASS WILL BE MODERATED A BIT BY THE HIGH SUN ANGLE.
FCST WEIGHTED TOWARD THE WARMER BIAS CORRECT MARV GUIDANCE WITH
SUNNY SKIES AND DOWNSLOPING FLOW. MAX TEMPS GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S EXCEPT FOR COOLER HIGHS IN THE 40S ALONG
HIGHER ELEVATIONS RIDGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE MOVING TOWARDS NEWFOUNDLAND WED NIGHT AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FROM THE WEST. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE GUSTY WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL
DEPART TO OUR EAST WED EVENING. TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOW 30S WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AS CLEARING AND CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO
DROP. ELSEWHERE...MID TO UPPER 30S EXPECTED TO AROUND 40 IN THE
METROS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THURSDAY RESULTING IN A SUNNY
DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL APPROACH THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVES OFF THE
COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL
REACH 70-75 DEGREES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...ACCOMPANIED BY A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
STRONG PRESSURE SURGE/COLD ADVECTION WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TO
BEGIN THE WEEKEND. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED...SO ANY
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG THE
MASON-DIXON LINE CLOSEST TO THE FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SATURDAY. THUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO THESE AREAS.

AT THE MOMENT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER WITH
THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE FRONT. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
APPEARING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING
THE STRONGEST WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE PRESSURE SURGE WILL OCCUR
DURING PEAK HEATING WHEN LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPEST AND MIXING DOWN
HIGHER WIND GUSTS WOULD BE EASIEST.

WINDS DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES OVER THE REGION...BUT ITS STAY OVER OUR AREA IS
SHORT-LIVED AS A LARGE AND SLOW-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACH
FROM THE WEST BRINGING A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LGT SHRA AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF IAD AND WILL IMPACT
DCA/BWI/MTN THRU ABOUT 21Z. INTENSITY HAS BEEN SO LGT THAT NO FLGT
RESTRICTION WERE ACCOMPANIED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED
OUT OF THE WEST AS THESE SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH MOVE THRU
BUT WILL BE LGT UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THRU THIS EVE. ANY TSRA
WITH THE FRONT THIS EVE WILL BE LOCALIZED AND PROBS TOO CHANCE TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. NW WINDS 10-15 KT WILL GUST TO 25 KT BEHIND THE
FRONT THRU MUCH OF TNGT. NW WINDS INCREASE ON WED DUE TO DAYTIME
MIXING WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT POSSIBLE. VFR ON WED.

NW FLOW WILL SUBSIDE WED NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS MAY CROSS THE TERMINALS FRIDAY.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS AND WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS INCREASING TO
BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS THRU TNGT. SCA LVL REPORTS ONLY
ISOLATED THUS FAR BUT ANY SHOWERS MOVING THRU COULD DRAG DOWN
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS. WINDS BECOME GUSTY FOLLOWING A COLD FROPA
DURING THE MID TO LATE EVE AND INTO THE OVNGT. WIDESPREAD SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT
WEDNESDAY FOR ALL OF THE WATERS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY. THE GALE WARNING MAY BE ABLE TO BE DOWNGRADING
SOMETIME DURING THE AFTN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED
WIND FIELD WEAKENS A BIT.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND A
SCA IS IN EFFECT. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE FROM WEST TO EAST THEREFORE THE
SCA FOR THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC WILL DROP LATE WED NIGHT. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO CAUSE SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BAY INTO THURSDAY. A SCA
MAY BE EXTENDED FOR THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
WATERS FRIDAY.

A PERIOD OF HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A STRONG BUT
MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT SATURDAY. WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE
NIGHT SATURDAY AND LIKELY DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. A DEEP
MIXING LAYER WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO MIX DOWN...CAUSING LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS...LOW FUEL MOISTURE AND
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR THE SPREAD OF
WILDFIRES WEDNESDAY. AFTER COORDINATION WITH STATE OFFICIALS AND
SURROUNDING WFOS...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
POSITIVE TIDAL ANOMALIES REMAIN STEADY AROUND THREE-QUARTERS OF A
FOOT THIS AFTN. SLY WINDS WILL BECOME WLY WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HRS
AND ANOMALIES WILL DECREASE SUBSEQUENTLY.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BLOWOUT TIDES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR DCZ001.
MD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-502.
VA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ025>031-036>040-042-050>057-501-502-504.
WV...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR WVZ050>053-055-502-504-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JRK
NEAR TERM...JRK
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...JRK/HAS/DFH
MARINE...JRK/HAS/DFH
FIRE WEATHER...JRK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JRK








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221821
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
221 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER FRONT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES DUE TO A DEEPENING THERMAL TROUGH
COUPLED WITH A JET AND MINUTE SURFACE BASED CAPE. THEREFORE HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS AND WEATHER TO INTRODUCE THUNDER FOR PARTS OF THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THUS...STRATOCU WILL PERSIST AND A GREATER CHANCE OF A
STRAY SHOWER OR SNOW SHOWER EXISTS TO THE NORTH AND OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH STRATOCU DECREASING IN
THE AFTERNOON AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WARM AIR ADVECTS
VIA SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA OVER THE
WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS FRIDAY WITH FRONT AND CHANCE POPS SATURDAY IN
UNSTABLE COLD ADVECTION AS A REINFORCING BOUNDARY CROSSES THE
REGION. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHWRS AND ISOLD TSTMS WL DIMINISH THIS EVE AS THE CDFNT COMPLETES
PASSAGE ACRS THE UPR OH REGION. MVFR STRATOCU ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO THE NGT THOUGH WITH COLD ADVCTN VIA NW BNDRY LYR FLOW.

EXPECT IMPROVEMENT ON WEDNESDAY VIA SBSDNC AND DRY ADVCTN.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR GENL RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/24




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221821
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
221 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER FRONT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES DUE TO A DEEPENING THERMAL TROUGH
COUPLED WITH A JET AND MINUTE SURFACE BASED CAPE. THEREFORE HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS AND WEATHER TO INTRODUCE THUNDER FOR PARTS OF THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THUS...STRATOCU WILL PERSIST AND A GREATER CHANCE OF A
STRAY SHOWER OR SNOW SHOWER EXISTS TO THE NORTH AND OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH STRATOCU DECREASING IN
THE AFTERNOON AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WARM AIR ADVECTS
VIA SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA OVER THE
WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS FRIDAY WITH FRONT AND CHANCE POPS SATURDAY IN
UNSTABLE COLD ADVECTION AS A REINFORCING BOUNDARY CROSSES THE
REGION. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHWRS AND ISOLD TSTMS WL DIMINISH THIS EVE AS THE CDFNT COMPLETES
PASSAGE ACRS THE UPR OH REGION. MVFR STRATOCU ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO THE NGT THOUGH WITH COLD ADVCTN VIA NW BNDRY LYR FLOW.

EXPECT IMPROVEMENT ON WEDNESDAY VIA SBSDNC AND DRY ADVCTN.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR GENL RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/24




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221821
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
221 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER FRONT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES DUE TO A DEEPENING THERMAL TROUGH
COUPLED WITH A JET AND MINUTE SURFACE BASED CAPE. THEREFORE HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS AND WEATHER TO INTRODUCE THUNDER FOR PARTS OF THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THUS...STRATOCU WILL PERSIST AND A GREATER CHANCE OF A
STRAY SHOWER OR SNOW SHOWER EXISTS TO THE NORTH AND OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH STRATOCU DECREASING IN
THE AFTERNOON AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WARM AIR ADVECTS
VIA SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA OVER THE
WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS FRIDAY WITH FRONT AND CHANCE POPS SATURDAY IN
UNSTABLE COLD ADVECTION AS A REINFORCING BOUNDARY CROSSES THE
REGION. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHWRS AND ISOLD TSTMS WL DIMINISH THIS EVE AS THE CDFNT COMPLETES
PASSAGE ACRS THE UPR OH REGION. MVFR STRATOCU ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO THE NGT THOUGH WITH COLD ADVCTN VIA NW BNDRY LYR FLOW.

EXPECT IMPROVEMENT ON WEDNESDAY VIA SBSDNC AND DRY ADVCTN.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR GENL RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/24




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221821
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
221 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER FRONT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES DUE TO A DEEPENING THERMAL TROUGH
COUPLED WITH A JET AND MINUTE SURFACE BASED CAPE. THEREFORE HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS AND WEATHER TO INTRODUCE THUNDER FOR PARTS OF THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THUS...STRATOCU WILL PERSIST AND A GREATER CHANCE OF A
STRAY SHOWER OR SNOW SHOWER EXISTS TO THE NORTH AND OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH STRATOCU DECREASING IN
THE AFTERNOON AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WARM AIR ADVECTS
VIA SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA OVER THE
WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS FRIDAY WITH FRONT AND CHANCE POPS SATURDAY IN
UNSTABLE COLD ADVECTION AS A REINFORCING BOUNDARY CROSSES THE
REGION. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHWRS AND ISOLD TSTMS WL DIMINISH THIS EVE AS THE CDFNT COMPLETES
PASSAGE ACRS THE UPR OH REGION. MVFR STRATOCU ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO THE NGT THOUGH WITH COLD ADVCTN VIA NW BNDRY LYR FLOW.

EXPECT IMPROVEMENT ON WEDNESDAY VIA SBSDNC AND DRY ADVCTN.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR GENL RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/24




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221745
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
145 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES A WEAK LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACRS THE
PIEDMONT AS SEEN IN OBS/PRESSURE FALLS. ACTUAL COLD FRONT STILL
ALONG WEST SLOPE OF THE APPALACHIANS.

DEEP LAYER SW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WSW LATER THIS
AFTN. AREA LAPS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INVERTED V PROFILE
THAT WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS IN ANY SHOWERS
AND TSTMS LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...THE FLOW BECOMING MORE WSW
TYPICALLY TENDS TO DECREASE AREAL COVERAGE AND WOULD ALSO INHIBIT
STORM ORGANIZATION TO SOME EXTENT. LATEST 12Z NAM SEEMS TO DEPICT
CURRENT CONDITIONS FAIRLY WELL AND SHOWS MUCH OF THE CURRENT
ACTIVITY OVER FAR NW ZONES DISSIPATING AS IT TRACKS TO THE EAST.
HAVE SCALED BACK ON POPS THROUGH 20Z (4 PM) ACRS SE VA/NE NC WHILE
MAINTAINING CHC TO LIKELY POPS ACRS THE FAR NW. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY MAINLY CHC POPS FROM LATE AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING ACRS THE
CWA (WITH LIKELY POPS OVER THE NORTH)...AS AREA OF ACTIVITY
CURRENTLY OVER WRN NC AND ERN TN MOVES EAST. IN GENERAL...NOT A
LOT OF SUPPORT FOR SEVERE WX GIVEN A SHORT WINDOW WITH ML CAPES
EVEN GETTING TO 500-1000 J/KG BY LATE AFTN. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 25-30 KT AS WELL...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED STRONG STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 40-45 MPH GIVEN THE DEEP
MIXING. QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN
INCH. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY GENERALLY WELL INTO THE 70S, WITH
A FEW LOWER 80S POSSIBLE WEST OF THE BAY.



TONIGHT...
SHOWERS/ISO THUNDERSTORMS PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING W/ A QUICKLY
CLEARING SKY THROUGH MIDNIGHT, AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS
FROM FALLING AS QUICKLY AS PROGGED BY COOLER MAV GUIDANCE...SO
HAVE OPTED TOWARDS WARMER ENVELOPE OF MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THE
BOARD. EARLY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND AND
OVER THE EASTERN SHORE...TO LOW 50S SE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODIFYING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW ON WED, AS NW
FLOW PERSISTS. REMNANT MID LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH (LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE) WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON
CU OVER THE LOCAL AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEASTERN COASTAL ZONES.
LOCAL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER, WITH DEWPOINTS WILL MIX INTO THE UPR
20S/LOW 30S (YIELDING MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE MID 20S INLAND) AND
WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT, BUMPED TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S INLAND, WITH LOWER 60S OVER THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE. CONCERN
DOES EXIST FOR FIRE WX CONDITIONS WED...SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW
FOR DETAILS. EARLY MORNING LOWS THU MORNING IN THE U30S TO AROUND
40...UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY.

DRY AGAIN ON THU AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE REGION, BEFORE
SLIDING OFF OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE THU/ERY FRIDAY. HIGHS THURS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S. ONCE AGAIN, MIN RH VALUES FALL INTO THE
20S THU AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRANSITION TO A MORE
AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY PATTERN BY DAYS 6-7. SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE
THURS NIGHT...VEERING THE FLOW AROUND TO THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVERHEAD. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT...BUT CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE NRN PLAINS
THURS NIGHT. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
LIFTING A WARM FRONT OVER THE REGION IN THE AMPLIFYING FLOW FRI
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION SAT. WLY
FLOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF STATES WILL LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE APPALACHIANS. DEWPOINTS ONLY PROGGED TO WARM INTO THE LOW-MID
50S FRI. BEST DYNAMICS WILL ALSO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AS
ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...INCREASING
SPEEDS ALOFT AND SMALL AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL BE ENOUGH TO
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FRONT ATTM.
WITH THE LOCAL AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR FRI...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO
THE MID-UPPER 70S (NEAR 80 INLAND). WARM TEMPS COMBINED WITH LOW
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON. THUS WILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER. SRN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OVER
THE CAROLINAS FRI NIGHT-SAT IN WLY FLOW ALOFT.

SHOULD REMAIN WARM SAT AS LOW LEVEL WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
PERSISTS...THUS DELAYING COOLER AIRMASS UNTIL SAT NIGHT. HAVE GONE
ON WARM EDGE OF GUIDANCE IN THIS PATTERN WITH HIGHS AGAIN MAINLY
75-80 F. LOOKS DRY AS WELL WITH DYNAMICS WELL TO THE NORTH
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED LATE DAY SHOWER COULD BRUSH NORTHERN ZONES.
MORE SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT ARISES SUN/MON AS THE GFS IS
MUCH COOLER BUT DRY AS A DEEP UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NE
STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND...WHILE THE ECMWF IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND
EVEN DEPICTS A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHING BACK INTO
REGION BY MON. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME SO HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC AND GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS.
WENT DRY SUN...THEN BRING SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHC
POP BY MON AREA-WIDE. HIGH GENLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL SHWRS NOW CROSSING THE PIEDMONT HAVE THE BEST
CHC OF REACHING KRIC/KSBY OVER THE NEXT SVRL HRS SO HAVE ADDED A
2-3 HR TEMPO GROUP THERE. OTW...KEPT VCSH ACROSS SERN TAF SITES AFTR
20Z GIVING THE LATEST TRENDS OF THE PCPN WEAKENING AS IT CROSSES THE
MTS. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT THUNDER IN ATTM...
BEST LOCATION FOR ANY THUNDER TO OCCUR WOULD BE ACROSS SERN TAF SITES
BEFORE 00Z. OTW...SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE EXPECTED AS THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING. SKIES CLR BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY AFTR 06Z. STRONG CAA SETS IN LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH NW WINDS INCRG TO BTWN 15-25 KTS BY 12Z. HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE DELMARVA AND SERN COASTAL AREAS WEDNESDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY WITH SCT SHWRS/TSTRMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE FINALLY SUBSIDED BELOW 5 FT IN THE COASTAL WATERS THANKS
TO SLY FLOW. HAVE CANCELLED SCA HEADLINES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...THE LULL WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. SOLID SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
A STRONG NWLY SURGE ARRIVES OVER THE WATER. STRONG GRADIENT WILL
PRODUCE 35-40 KT 925MB WINDS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY OVER THE WATER.
WILL LEAVE AS SCA ATTM...BUT WILL RE-EVALUATE FOR THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST PACKAGE.

PREV DISCUSSION...
LIGHT WINDS AROUND 5 KT ARE GRADUALLY TURNING FROM EAST
TO SOUTH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE OFFSHORE.
MEANWHILE...A SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
MORNING AND THEN CROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTN/EVENING. AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES THE WATERS THIS AFTN...WINDS WILL BECOME SW AND
INCREASE TO 10-15 KT. A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT MAY BE POSSIBLE
OVER CHES BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND DURING THIS TIME...BUT AM STILL
ANTICIPATING PREDOMINANT CONDITIONS TO BE SUB-SCA. MEANWHILE FOR
TODAY...ONSHORE SWELL WITH 10-11 SECOND PERIODS WILL PREVENT SEAS
FROM SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT FOR THE GREATER PART OF
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OUT NEAR 20 NM. THEREFORE SCA FLAGS FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TODAY. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS OF 25-35 KT. THE
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS THIS EVENING AND PUSHES OFFSHORE AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF STRONG POST-FRONTAL SCA CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED DUE TO A DECENT CAA SURGE LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. A FAVORABLE NW WIND DIRECTION WILL FURTHER ENHANCE WIND
SPEEDS...BUT WILL GENERALLY PREVENT SEAS FROM BUILDING ANY HIGHER
THAN 5-6 FT...WITH 3-4 FT WAVES ON THE BAY (LOCALLY UP TO 5 FT SRN
BAY LATE TONIGHT) AND 2-3 FT ON THE RIVERS. WILL SEE A
SECONDARY...ALBEIT WEAKER... COLD AIR SURGE WED NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY GRADUALLY IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY THU
(ALTHOUGH TRENDS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER TO BUILD A SFC RIDGE INTO THE
REGION SO IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY BREEZY IN NW FLOW THROUGH THU AFTN
FOR NRN COASTAL WATERS IN PARTICULAR). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY LATE THU AFTN INTO FRI.

SCA FLAGS FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS WERE EXTENDED THROUGH WED NIGHT
FOR A COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SEAS. ADDITIONAL FLAGS WERE HOISTED
FOR THE BAY/SOUND/RIVERS BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND
PERSISTING INTO EARLY WED EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRONG NW
SURGE TONIGHT AND CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS ON WED BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT, BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY OF A WIDESPREAD WETTING
RAIN IS NOT ALL THAT GOOD. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MIN RH VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 25-30% FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...AND 20FT WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 15-20 MPH WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH. THESE CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH
THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN FOR ALMOST A WEEK MAY ENHANCE THE
THREAT FOR WILDFIRES ON WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE
ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT WHERE MIN RH VALUES WILL BE THE
LOWEST...AND WHERE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF RAIN HAS FALLEN RECENTLY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD/SAM
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221623
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1223 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A RELATIVELY STRONGER LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED
THUNDER HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES DUE TO A DEEPENING
THERMAL TROUGH COUPLED WITH A JET AND MINUTE SURFACE BASED CAPE.
THEREFORE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND WEATHER TO INTRODUCE THUNDER FOR
PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THUS...STRATOCU WILL PERSIST AND A GREATER CHANCE OF A
STRAY SHOWER OR SNOW SHOWER EXISTS TO THE NORTH AND OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH STRATOCU DECREASING IN
THE AFTERNOON AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WARM AIR ADVECTS
VIA SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA OVER THE
WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS FRIDAY WITH FRONT AND CHANCE POPS SATURDAY IN
UNSTABLE COLD ADVECTION AS A REINFORCING BOUNDARY CROSSES THE
REGION. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH TODAYS
COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND VEER TO THE NW WITH
GUSTS TO ARND 20KTS. FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE...MVFR STRATOCU
MAY PERSIST...ESPECIALLY AT FKL AND DUJ WELL INTO THE NGT.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR GENL RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221614
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1214 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES A WEAK LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACRS THE
PIEDMONT AS SEEN IN OBS/PRESSURE FALLS. ACTUAL COLD FRONT STILL
ALONG WEST SLOPE OF THE APPALACHIANS.

DEEP LAYER SW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WSW LATER THIS
AFTN. AREA LAPS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INVERTED V PROFILE
THAT WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS IN ANY SHOWERS
AND TSTMS LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...THE FLOW BECOMING MORE WSW
TYPICALLY TENDS TO DECREASE AREAL COVERAGE AND WOULD ALSO INHIBIT
STORM ORGANIZATION TO SOME EXTENT. LATEST 12Z NAM SEEMS TO DEPICT
CURRENT CONDITIONS FAIRLY WELL AND SHOWS MUCH OF THE CURRENT
ACTIVITY OVER FAR NW ZONES DISSIPATING AS IT TRACKS TO THE EAST.
HAVE SCALED BACK ON POPS THROUGH 20Z (4 PM) ACRS SE VA/NE NC WHILE
MAINTAINING CHC TO LIKELY POPS ACRS THE FAR NW. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY MAINLY CHC POPS FROM LATE AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING ACRS THE
CWA (WITH LIKELY POPS OVER THE NORTH)...AS AREA OF ACTIVITY
CURRENTLY OVER WRN NC AND ERN TN MOVES EAST. IN GENERAL...NOT A
LOT OF SUPPORT FOR SEVERE WX GIVEN A SHORT WINDOW WITH ML CAPES
EVEN GETTING TO 500-1000 J/KG BY LATE AFTN. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 25-30 KT AS WELL...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED STRONG STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 40-45 MPH GIVEN THE DEEP
MIXING. QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN
INCH. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY GENERALLY WELL INTO THE 70S, WITH
A FEW LOWER 80S POSSIBLE WEST OF THE BAY.



TONIGHT...
SHOWERS/ISO THUNDERSTORMS PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING W/ A QUICKLY
CLEARING SKY THROUGH MIDNIGHT, AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS
FROM FALLING AS QUICKLY AS PROGGED BY COOLER MAV GUIDANCE...SO
HAVE OPTED TOWARDS WARMER ENVELOPE OF MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THE
BOARD. EARLY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND AND
OVER THE EASTERN SHORE...TO LOW 50S SE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODIFYING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW ON WED, AS NW
FLOW PERSISTS. REMNANT MID LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH (LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE) WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON
CU OVER THE LOCAL AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEASTERN COASTAL ZONES.
LOCAL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER, WITH DEWPOINTS WILL MIX INTO THE UPR
20S/LOW 30S (YIELDING MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE MID 20S INLAND) AND
WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT, BUMPED TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S INLAND, WITH LOWER 60S OVER THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE. CONCERN
DOES EXIST FOR FIRE WX CONDITIONS WED...SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW
FOR DETAILS. EARLY MORNING LOWS THU MORNING IN THE U30S TO AROUND
40...UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY.

DRY AGAIN ON THU AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE REGION, BEFORE
SLIDING OFF OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE THU/ERY FRIDAY. HIGHS THURS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S. ONCE AGAIN, MIN RH VALUES FALL INTO THE
20S THU AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRANSITION TO A MORE
AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY PATTERN BY DAYS 6-7. SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE
THURS NIGHT...VEERING THE FLOW AROUND TO THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVERHEAD. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT...BUT CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE NRN PLAINS
THURS NIGHT. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
LIFTING A WARM FRONT OVER THE REGION IN THE AMPLIFYING FLOW FRI
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION SAT. WLY
FLOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF STATES WILL LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE APPALACHIANS. DEWPOINTS ONLY PROGGED TO WARM INTO THE LOW-MID
50S FRI. BEST DYNAMICS WILL ALSO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AS
ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...INCREASING
SPEEDS ALOFT AND SMALL AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL BE ENOUGH TO
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FRONT ATTM.
WITH THE LOCAL AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR FRI...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO
THE MID-UPPER 70S (NEAR 80 INLAND). WARM TEMPS COMBINED WITH LOW
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON. THUS WILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER. SRN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OVER
THE CAROLINAS FRI NIGHT-SAT IN WLY FLOW ALOFT.

SHOULD REMAIN WARM SAT AS LOW LEVEL WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
PERSISTS...THUS DELAYING COOLER AIRMASS UNTIL SAT NIGHT. HAVE GONE
ON WARM EDGE OF GUIDANCE IN THIS PATTERN WITH HIGHS AGAIN MAINLY
75-80 F. LOOKS DRY AS WELL WITH DYNAMICS WELL TO THE NORTH
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED LATE DAY SHOWER COULD BRUSH NORTHERN ZONES.
MORE SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT ARISES SUN/MON AS THE GFS IS
MUCH COOLER BUT DRY AS A DEEP UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NE
STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND...WHILE THE ECMWF IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND
EVEN DEPICTS A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHING BACK INTO
REGION BY MON. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME SO HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC AND GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS.
WENT DRY SUN...THEN BRING SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHC
POP BY MON AREA-WIDE. HIGH GENLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 22/0540Z...LIGHT WINDS ARE GRADUALLY TURNING FROM EAST TO
SOUTH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE OFFSHORE. MEANWHILE...
A SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BKN
CIGS AROUND 25 KFT AGL HAVE BEGUN TO OVERSPREAD THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO TUE MORNING. THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA DURING TUE
AFTN/EVENING. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...POTENTIALLY
RESULTING IN BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO VIS/CIGS UNDER STRONGER STORM
CORES. THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME MORE SW-W
TODAY...WHICH WILL THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS OF
15-20 KT DURING THE AFTN. THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 KT WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS QUICKLY TURN TO THE
NW AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE
CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS DUE TO POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR
ADVECTION. COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION ON WED...MAKING FOR A BREEZY DAY. AREAS WELL INLAND SHOULD
EXPERIENCE NW WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT. AREAS CLOSER
TO THE CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS (INCLUDING THE MD/VA EASTERN
SHORE) SHOULD EXPERIENCE NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS OF
25-30 KT. DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR
THROUGHOUT WED EVENING...BECOMING CALM INLAND BY 24/0400Z WHILE
SPEEDS STAY AROUND 10-15 KT NEAR THE COAST.

HIGH PRESSURE/DRY WX CONTINUES THU WITH NW WINDS TURNING TO THE W
DURING THE DAY. SPEEDS WILL STAY SOMEWHAT BREEZY NEAR THE COAST
AS A TIGHTENED SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE ARE ON FRI AND THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES LOOK RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AROUND 5 KT ARE GRADUALLY TURNING FROM EAST TO SOUTH
AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE OFFSHORE. MEANWHILE...A SFC
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING AND THEN
CROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTN/EVENING. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE
WATERS THIS AFTN...WINDS WILL BECOME SW AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT.
A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER CHES BAY/CURRITUCK
SOUND DURING THIS TIME...BUT AM STILL ANTICIPATING PREDOMINANT
CONDITIONS TO BE SUB-SCA. MEANWHILE FOR TODAY...ONSHORE SWELL WITH
10-11 SECOND PERIODS WILL PREVENT SEAS FROM SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT
FOR THE GREATER PART OF TODAY...ESPECIALLY OUT NEAR 20 NM.
THEREFORE SCA FLAGS FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH TODAY. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS OF 25-35 KT. THE FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS
THIS EVENING AND PUSHES OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A PERIOD
OF STRONG POST-FRONTAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED DUE TO A
DECENT CAA SURGE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A FAVORABLE NW WIND
DIRECTION WILL FURTHER ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS...BUT WILL GENERALLY
PREVENT SEAS FROM BUILDING ANY HIGHER THAN 5-6 FT...WITH 3-4 FT
WAVES ON THE BAY (LOCALLY UP TO 5 FT SRN BAY LATE TONIGHT) AND
2-3 FT ON THE RIVERS. WILL SEE A SECONDARY...ALBEIT WEAKER...
COLD AIR SURGE WED NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY GRADUALLY IMPROVING MARINE
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY THU (ALTHOUGH TRENDS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER
TO BUILD A SFC RIDGE INTO THE REGION SO IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
BREEZY IN NW FLOW THROUGH THU AFTN FOR NRN COASTAL WATERS IN
PARTICULAR). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY
LATE THU AFTN INTO FRI.

SCA FLAGS FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS WERE EXTENDED THROUGH WED NIGHT
FOR A COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SEAS. ADDITIONAL FLAGS WERE HOISTED
FOR THE BAY/SOUND/RIVERS BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND
PERSISTING INTO EARLY WED EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRONG NW
SURGE TONIGHT AND CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS ON WED BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT, BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY OF A WIDESPREAD WETTING
RAIN IS NOT ALL THAT GOOD. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MIN RH VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 25-30% FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...AND 20FT WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 15-20 MPH WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH. THESE CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH
THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN FOR ALMOST A WEEK MAY ENHANCE THE
THREAT FOR WILDFIRES ON WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE
ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT WHERE MIN RH VALUES WILL BE THE
LOWEST...AND WHERE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF RAIN HAS FALLEN RECENTLY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD
FIRE WEATHER...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221512
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1112 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WEATHER ELEMENTS BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THUS...STRATOCU WILL PERSIST AND A GREATER CHANCE OF A
STRAY SHOWER OR SNOW SHOWER EXISTS TO THE NORTH AND OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH STRATOCU DECREASING IN
THE AFTERNOON AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WARM AIR ADVECTS
VIA SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA OVER THE
WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS FRIDAY WITH FRONT AND CHANCE POPS SATURDAY IN
UNSTABLE COLD ADVECTION AS A REINFORCING BOUNDARY CROSSES THE
REGION. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH TODAYS
COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND VEER TO THE NW WITH
GUSTS TO ARND 20KTS. FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE...MVFR STRATOCU
MAY PERSIST...ESPECIALLY AT FKL AND DUJ WELL INTO THE NGT.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR GENL RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221512
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1112 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WEATHER ELEMENTS BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THUS...STRATOCU WILL PERSIST AND A GREATER CHANCE OF A
STRAY SHOWER OR SNOW SHOWER EXISTS TO THE NORTH AND OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH STRATOCU DECREASING IN
THE AFTERNOON AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WARM AIR ADVECTS
VIA SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA OVER THE
WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS FRIDAY WITH FRONT AND CHANCE POPS SATURDAY IN
UNSTABLE COLD ADVECTION AS A REINFORCING BOUNDARY CROSSES THE
REGION. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH TODAYS
COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND VEER TO THE NW WITH
GUSTS TO ARND 20KTS. FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE...MVFR STRATOCU
MAY PERSIST...ESPECIALLY AT FKL AND DUJ WELL INTO THE NGT.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR GENL RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221512
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1112 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WEATHER ELEMENTS BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THUS...STRATOCU WILL PERSIST AND A GREATER CHANCE OF A
STRAY SHOWER OR SNOW SHOWER EXISTS TO THE NORTH AND OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH STRATOCU DECREASING IN
THE AFTERNOON AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WARM AIR ADVECTS
VIA SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA OVER THE
WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS FRIDAY WITH FRONT AND CHANCE POPS SATURDAY IN
UNSTABLE COLD ADVECTION AS A REINFORCING BOUNDARY CROSSES THE
REGION. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH TODAYS
COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND VEER TO THE NW WITH
GUSTS TO ARND 20KTS. FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE...MVFR STRATOCU
MAY PERSIST...ESPECIALLY AT FKL AND DUJ WELL INTO THE NGT.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR GENL RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221512
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1112 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WEATHER ELEMENTS BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THUS...STRATOCU WILL PERSIST AND A GREATER CHANCE OF A
STRAY SHOWER OR SNOW SHOWER EXISTS TO THE NORTH AND OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH STRATOCU DECREASING IN
THE AFTERNOON AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WARM AIR ADVECTS
VIA SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA OVER THE
WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS FRIDAY WITH FRONT AND CHANCE POPS SATURDAY IN
UNSTABLE COLD ADVECTION AS A REINFORCING BOUNDARY CROSSES THE
REGION. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH TODAYS
COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND VEER TO THE NW WITH
GUSTS TO ARND 20KTS. FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE...MVFR STRATOCU
MAY PERSIST...ESPECIALLY AT FKL AND DUJ WELL INTO THE NGT.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR GENL RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KLWX 221433
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1033 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF
THE COAST FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND OH VLY AT
13Z. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 1000 MB SFC LOW NEAR THE SRN
ONTARIO-QUEBEC BORDER. PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO THE MTS THIS MRNG IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LEADING MID-LVL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. UPSTREAM RADAR AND THE LATEST HI-RES MODEL
GUIDANCE  SUPPORT DECREASING POPS WITH THE FCST FOR TDA WITH
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. THIS WOULD MAKE
SENSE GIVEN THE BEST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/JET STREAK AND SFC LOW REMAINING TO OUR NORTH.

12Z IAD RAOB REVEALED AN IMPRESSIVE LLVL INVERSION WITH THE WARM
NOSE OF 19C AT 950 MB. IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO MIX DOWN THIS WARMER
AIR. THEREFORE INCREASED MAX TEMPS FOR TDA ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
EVEN WITH THE CLOUD COVER TO CONTEND WITH. TEMPS THIS AFTN COULD
REACH THE LOWER 80S ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 WHERE STRONG HEATING THIS
MRNG WILL PRECEDE ARRIVAL OF DENSER CLOUDS THIS AFTN.

LLVL WINDS ARE FCST TO VEER MORE OUT OF THE WEST THIS AFTN BEHIND A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. EXPECT LOWER DEWPOINTS EAST OF THE MTS THAN WHAT
MODELS ARE INDICATING JUST PRIOR TO FROPA DUE TO DOWNSLOPING FLOW.
RAOB SOUNDINGS MODIFIED FOR A SFC TEMP NEAR 80F AND DEWPOINT NEAR
50F REVEAL MARGINAL INSTABILITY (SBCAPE AOB 500 J/KG) OWING TO THIS
LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND WEAK MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THIS WILL FAVOR COVERAGE OF TSTMS ISOLATED AND TSTM INTENSITY
WEAK. THE OPPORTUNITY FOR TSTMS APPEAR TO BE LIMITED TO ALONG OR
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR A 2-4 HR WIND THIS AFTN IN THE MTS
AND DURING THE LATE AFTN/ERY EVE TOWARD THE I-95 AND THE CHSPK
BAY.

AS THE VORT MAX FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION NEARS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT...SOME OF THE GUSTIER PARTS OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL GET
MIXED DOWN TO THE SFC AND NW WINDS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA W/
GUSTS IN THE 20-30MPH RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHTTIME HRS. DEWPOINTS
WILL DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S AND TEMPS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
40S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...W/ LOWER WIND CHILLS FROM THE GUSTY AND DRY
NW WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL CAUSE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS...AND MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW CLIMO DUE TO THE COLD
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE 40S ALONG THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
60S NEAR WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE...TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE VIRGINIA
PIEDMONT. A DEEP MIXING LAYER AND STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
CAUSE NORTHWEST WINDS TO GUST FREQUENTLY BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CAUSING DRY AND
CHILLY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. MIN TEMPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 30 IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING DRY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SUNSHINE. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY...BRINGING MORE CLOUDS
ALONG WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR MILD CONDITIONS SATURDAY. A COUPLE
SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR LOCATIONS NEAR
THE MASON-DIXON LINE...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL TURN OUT DRY SINCE
LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY.

THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY...POSSIBLY BRINGING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID AND HI CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST THIS MRNG
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. BRIEF PERIOD OF SHRA BEFORE 16Z AT MRB/CHO
AND BETWEEN 16-18Z FARTHER EAST. NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
WITH THESE LEADING SHRA. ANOTHER AREA OF SHRA AND ISO TSRA
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 18-21Z IN THE WRN TERMINALS AND 21-00Z FROM IAD
EWD. BRIEF/LOCAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE SOUTH UNTIL LATER THIS AFTN WHEN A
COLD FRONT SLIDES THRU AND TURNS WINDS BACK TO THE NW AND HIGHER
GUSTS IN THE 20-30KT RANGE APPEAR FOR THE LATE EVE/OVERNIGHT HRS.
CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT TONIGHT BUT WINDS WILL STAY BREEZY INTO
WED MRNG.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30 TO 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE TERMINALS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS FRIDAY...LIKELY
TRIGGERING A FEW SHOWERS. CIGS/VSBYS MAY APPROACH MVFR LEVELS DURING
THIS TIME. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE TERMINALS
SATURDAY...BUT MOST PLACES WILL END UP DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW WILL LAST FOR MUCH OF THE DAYTIME HRS...W/ SOME MINOR
CHANNELING BUT SUB-SCA UNTIL THIS AFTN. SHOWERS WILL CARRY ISOLATED
HIGHER WIND GUSTS THIS AFTN/EVE...THEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BRING MORE WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS LATER THIS EVE. A FEW HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY...SO THE POTENTIAL
FOR HIGHER LOCALIZED WINDS EXISTS UNTIL A COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU
LATE TONIGHT...SPREADING MORE WIDESPREAD AND NW WINDS OVER THE
WATERS FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HRS...WELL INTO SCA RANGE.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY.
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
ALSO BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS ON THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY...LIKELY TRIGGERING
A FEW SHOWERS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS SATURDAY
BEFORE PASSING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FUEL MOISTURE REMAINS LOW THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS
AROUND TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
AVERAGE TO BE LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER INCH ACROSS MOST AREAS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. A DEEP
MIXING LAYER WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO MIX DOWN...CAUSING LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS...LOW FUEL MOISTURE AND
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR THE SPREAD OF
WILDFIRES WEDNESDAY. DAY SHIFT HAS COORDINATE WITH STATE
CONTACTS ABOUT FUEL MOISTURE. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE
NECESSARY FOR TOMORROW AND WOULD BE ISSUED THIS AFTN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS CAUSED TIDAL ANOMALIES TO BE AROUND THREE-
QUARTERS OF A FOOT ABOVE THE ASTRONOMICAL NORM. THE TIDAL
ANOMALIES SHOULD NOT CHANGE MUCH THIS AFTN AS THE FLOW GRADUALLY
SHIFTS WEST OF SOUTH. THIS WILL KEEP TIDAL LEVELS BELOW THRESHOLDS
FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BLOWOUT TIDES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...JRK/GMS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...JRK/BJL
MARINE...JRK/BJL
FIRE WEATHER...BJL/JRK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JRK








000
FXUS61 KPHI 221430
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1030 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE HIGH COMBINED
WITH LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTH AND BRING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER
FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE, WE TRIMMED BACK POPS AND
ONSET OF PRECIP FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN. WE
ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THROUGH THE AFTN TO EVENING
HOURS TO REFLECT THE TIMING OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE CWA.
OTHERWISE, PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON TRACK FOR LATER TODAY AS
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE ALSO KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THE
AFTN/EVE AS GFS/NAM AND EURO GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME INSTABILITY.
IN ADDITION, HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT TO
REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS, BUT AFTN MAXIMUM TEMPS
LOOK ON TRACK.

OTHERWISE, DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NY AND NEW
ENGLAND TODAY AND AN ATTACHED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE WRN AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
OVERALL, MAINLY HIGH CHC/LIKELY POPS ARE IN PLACE WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND SMALLER CHCS FOR THUNDER. SPC HAS ONLY A GENERAL
THUNDER OUTLOOKED FOR OUR REGION...WITH LIMITED CAPE AND MODEST
WIND FIELDS EXPECTED. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE DEL VALLEY AROUND
23Z OR 00Z. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY S/SW TODAY THEN SHIFT WRLY AFTER
FROPA. OVERALL QPF TODAY AND THIS EVENING WILL BE MOSTLY .10 TO
.25 INCHES.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE LOW/MID 70S IN MANY AREAS. IT WILL REMAIN COOLER ALONG THE
SHORE AREAS WITH READINGS THERE STAYING MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NJ/DE THEN OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF THE SHOWER AND ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR
THIS EVENING. A COLDER GUSTY NW WIND WILL COMMENCE BEHIND THE FRONT.
WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE TONIGHT. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE 50S REACHING THE MID/UPPER 40S BY
MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST AT THE START OF
THE EXTENDD PD AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER NEW ENG AND PULLS AWAY.
THE PGRAD BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING LOW AND THE BUILDING HIGH WILL
KEEP GUSTY N TO NW WIND OVER THE REGION BOTH DAYS. 30 TO 35 MPH
GUSTS ARE PSBL, BEFORE THE WIND SETTLES DOWN ON THU.

BY THU NIGHT, AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL BE MOVG ACRS THE GRTLKS AND
ITS ASSOCD CDFNT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON FRI AND CROSS THE
AREA FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHC
OF SHWRS. THERE IS VERY GOOD MDL AGREEMENT ON THIS PART OF THE
FCST. HOWEVER, THERE IS MUCH LESS MDL AGREEMENT ON WHAT HAPPENS
THE REST OF SAT. THE GFS SWEEPS THE FRONT THRU AND KEEPS MOST OF
THE REST OF SAT DRY, SAVE FOR A FEW SCT SHWRS. THE ECMWF, ON THE
OTHER HAND BRINGS A SECOND FRONT BY DURG SAT AND WOULD KEEP THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS ALL DAY AND MUCH HIGHER POPS. THE CMC SUPPORTS
THE DRIER GFS SOLN, SO FOR NOW, WILL GO WITH LOW CHC POPS, BUT SAT
COULD END UP WETTER THAN CURRENTLY FCST AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

THEN HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD DOWN FROM CAN FOR SUN MAKING FOR
ANOTHER DRY DAY ACRS THE AREA.

BY MON, THERE IS YET EVEN MORE MDL DISAGREEMENT. AN AREA OF LOW
PRES TAKES SHAPE ACRS THE PLAINS. IT`S WARM FRONT EXTENDS EWD AND
PRECIP IS EXPECTED ALG AND N OF THAT BOUNDARY ON MON. HOWEVER, THE
GUID DIFFERS AS TO WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE AND, THEREFORE, WHERE
THE PRECIP WILL BE. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER S WITH THE FRONT AND THE
PRECIP THAN THE GFS AND KEEPS VIRTUALLY ALL OF OUR AREA DRY ON
MON, WITH THE PSBL EXCEPTION OF THE EXTREME SRN DELMARVA. THE GFS
IS MUCH FURTHER N AND KEEPS THE AREA WET.

THE ULTIMATE POSN OF THE FRONT AND PRECIP WILL BE GOVERNED BY THE
STRENGTH AND POSN OF THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH OVER CANADA. IF ITS
STRONGER OR FURTHER S, THEN THE FRONT WILL BE FURTHER S. IF ITS
WEAKER OR FURTHER N, THEN THE FRONT WILL BE FURTHER N. GIVEN THE
NORMAL UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME SCALE AND THE DIAMETRIC OPPOSITE
GUIDANCE, WILL JUST CARRY SOME LOW POPS ATTM.

AFTER WED, BEHIND THE CFP....TEMPS LOOK TO BE AOA NRML THRU THE
PD. SAT`S TEMP ULTIMATELY DEPENDENT ON SUNSHINE AND WHICH MDL SOLN
IS CORRECT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A MOSTLY VFR DAY IS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON CAUSING CLOUDS TO INCREASE
AND CIGS TO LOWER. WE HAVE CONTINUED WITH VFR CONDITIONS DURING
THE SHOWERY PERIOD LATER TODAY...ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED. LOW
CONFID IN THUNDER FOR THE TAF SITES...SO THEY WERE NOT MENTIONED
IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY S/SW TODAY THEN SWITCH
WRLY THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING GUSTY NW TONIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT. WINDS GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WED THROUGH THU...VFR CONDS WITH NW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT
RANGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI THROUGH SAT...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. MDT CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERALL, SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA WATERS
THROUGH TODAY BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE FOLLOWING A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TONIGHT. LATEST OBSERVATIONS FROM BUOY 44009
SHOW SEAS BETWEEN 4 TO 5 FEET, AND THIS WILL LIKELY HOLD FOR THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD ELEVATED
SEAS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A SCA
FLAG WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS AFTER 00Z AND CARRY INTO WED
MORNING. SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

WED THROUGH THU...SCA LIKELY AND GALE FORCE GSTS PSBL ON THE OCEAN
FRONT WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 KT AND PSBLY HIGHER. A GALE WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED. WIND SUBSIDING LATER THU.

FRI AND SAT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME,
THOUGH WE COULD APPROACH SCA WIND BY SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOME FIRE WEATHER DANGER MAY BE PRESENT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PRESENT BOTH DAYS BUT SOMEWHAT
STRONGER ON WEDNESDAY. GUSTS COULD REACH OVER 30 MPH. HOWEVER...AT
THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON
WEDNESDAY. RH WILL BE LOWER ON THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL DRYING
AFTER TUESDAYS PRECIP...AND STILL GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...KLINE/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...KLINE/NIERENBERG/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...






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