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000
FXUS61 KLWX 010121
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
921 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Several weak frontal boundaries will be in the area through
Thursday. A stronger cold front will pass through from the west
later Friday into Friday night. High pressure may briefly build
into the area Saturday before another cold front approaches Sunday
and passes through Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Rather weak surface pressure pattern across the area this evening
with shortwave ridging aloft. The small showers that developed to
the south and east of DC due to mesoscale boundaries have all but
dissipated, and it looks like we should have a dry rest of the
night. A prominent feature during the early evening was a dew
point boundary, located between IAD and DCA, roughly oriented NNE
to SSW...with dew points in the mid to upper 60s to the east, and
in the 50s to the west (before rising due to decoupling).

Temperatures which rose into the 80s for most of the area will
drop into the 60s tonight...with some 50s in the cool spots and
near 70F in the urban centers. Adjusted temps up a couple degrees
where dew points are currently higher. With light winds and partly
to mostly clear skies...potential for fog exists...though with
lower dew points to start we might not get as widespread or dense
as last night, especially in the western areas. Cloud cover and
dew point trends will play an important role.

Any fog will break early Wednesday. However...back
door cold front will approach the area from the north and could
spawn a stray shower or t-storm. Forcing and moisture is
weak...mainly due to convergence in onshore flow between the
front and remnants of Bonnie. Most hi-res models simulate widely
scattered, light reflectivity. Have POPs trend east to west
through the day as stable air pushes onshore. Temps may also be a
little cooler with more clouds but generally still a decent day.
Highs again mostly in the 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Back door cold front appears to regain some strength and push
southwest into the area Wednesday night into Thursday...with
further modest decrease in temperatures. This may try to keep
north and east portions of CWA dry...while further SW spotty
showers/storms will again be possible though with low coverage
once again.

Stronger cold front will approach from the west on Thursday night
and cross the area Friday. This system will bring better
concentration and coverage of rain and storms. However...forcing
aloft is not great even if CAPE looks decent...so probably looking
at marginal severe if any. Highs again in the vicinity of 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Weak high pressure briefly builds in Friday night-Saturday,
keeping most of the area dry through the day.

Attention then turns to upper trough digging into the NE Sunday.
Guidance still differs with respect to
amplitude/positioning/timing, which will have a big influence on
impacts for our area. Depending on evolution, shear/thermo
profiles could be favorable for severe thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
With light winds and partly to mostly clear skies, areas of fog
possible again later tonight into Wednesday morning. Have
introduced IFR vsby at MRB (climo) and CHO (where higher dew
points currently reside, and have MVFR at the rest of the
terminals except DCA. Like last night, not out of question IAD
could drop lower right around dawn. On the whole, fog is not
looking as dense as last night.

Weak boundary pushes toward area on Wednesday and may spark an
isolated shower or perhaps a thunderstorm, likely moving roughly east
to west. Predicted coverage and intensity preclude TAF mention
ATTM. IFR or lower conditions possible Wednesday night into
Thursday morning with onshore marine layer...then more
isolated/scattered showers/t-storms Thursday afternoon mainly
MRB/CHO.

Winds generally less than 10 knots through Thursday, ranging from
NE-SE.

Better coverage of showers/t-storms late Thursday night and Friday
with stronger front. Winds become more SW for a time.

Another stronger cold front approaches Sunday with another chance
of thunderstorms across the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA winds expected through at least Wednesday with surface
flow changing from roughly southerly this evening to a more
easterly component less than 15 knots on Wednesday. Near-SCA
conditions possible Wednesday night into Thursday behind a back
door cold front. Another cold front passing through the waters
Friday into Friday night will bring better coverage of showers and
thunderstorms.

Showers and thunderstorms are possible Sunday with another
stronger cold front. Gradient winds also increase near SCA
conditions Sunday near and behind frontal passage.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...ADS/RCM
SHORT TERM...RCM
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...ADS/MSE/RCM
MARINE...ADS/MSE/RCM



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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 311842
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
242 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The remnants of Post Tropical Storm Bonnie will slowly slide
northeast along the Carolina coast through mid week. A cold front
then approaches from the west...crossing the area early Friday
into Friday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Now post-tropical remnants of Bonnie will continue to meander
along the Carolina coast today. Continued mild and moderately
humid, with low clouds and morning fog again giving way to
increasing aftn clouds and mainly diurnally driven showers and
storms. Expect most of pcpn to be focused mainly along the llvl
convergence boundary lifting across NE NC/SE VA counties this
afternoon into early evening. Farther north, Showers/thunderstorms
will be lower in areal coverage across northern tier of the local
area, owing to meager forcing aloft and relative subsidence in low
levels behind a weak front dropping across the area. Still, given
the very moist airmass, at least a low pop is warranted. Forecast
rain chances remain in chance to low end likely range 50-60%
across the southeast, tapering back to slight chance to low end
chance across the northeastern 1/3 of the forecast area. Look for
highs today in the low-mid 80s, coolest across the southeastern
coastal plain areas (NE NC/SE VA), where clouds should be thickest
with greater Shower coverage.

As with last night, expect forcing for ascent to shunt
offshore, with diminishing areal coverage of showers. Will
therefore go with a slight chc pop overnight tonight with
additional areas of fog late. Early morning lows mostly in the
low to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Again very little change to sensible wx on Wednesday. The
weakening remnant low lifts up toward the southern outer
banks/Crystal Coast Region, with more mainly diurnally-driven
showers and storms across our area. Continued seasonably warm and
moderately humid w/highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Forecast
PoPs Wednesday range from 20-30 percent inland to 40-50 percent
along the coast.

GFS a bit quicker than the operational ECMWF clearing out the
low for Thursday, and have gone with a blended solution for now
which is in good agreement with the going forecast. Bit of a
complicated setup for Thursday, with sfc low lingering off the
Northern OBX as weak cool front crosses in from the west late in
the day. Given the slower timing with the blended solution,
expect that the inherited slight chc pops will be sufficient
inland, with higher pops closer to the coast with the departing
low. Warmer and still moderately humid with highs in the low to
mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Cdfnt stalls invof Carolinas Fri night...w/ shras/psbl tstms
becoming confined to far srn/SE va and NE NC. The fnt moves back N
Sat-Sun as deep trough dives SE through the Great Lakes/Oh
Vly...bringing additional chcs for shras/tstms. On Mon...the next
cdfnt crosses the rgn (w/ psbl linger chcs for shras/tstms...though
will be trending POPs down fm W-E into Mon eve). Drying dp lyrd W
flo xpcd Mon ngt-Tue.

Highs Sat/Sun fm the m70s-arnd 80F at the cst to the l-m80s inland
Sat/Sun...then the l-m80s Mon and Tue. Lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Subsidence behind departing low pressure has resulted in much less
pcpn coverage than expected past several hours. However, plenty of
low level moisture remains so that the sct-bkn st of this morning
has only slowly lifted to cu between 2-4k ft this afternoon.

Tropical moisture bands continue to stream north across the north
carolina coastal plain and this moisture will likely make it at
least to near ecg before 00Z...thus went with VCSH there.
Otherwise...sct convection possible along seas breeze next several
hours as well...but timing into any one TAF site is problematic
given nothing on radar.

Guid suggests another night of low stratus and fog so expect local
ifr conditions once again late tonight. looks like a repeat performance
Wednesday.

outlook...sct convection with a cold front is expected to cross
the area from nw to se Fri aftn/evening. The front stalls along
the Carolinas Sat and another round of showers will be possible
across coastal sections.

&&

.MARINE...
No headlines necessary attm. Remnant lo pres was located S of ILM
this aftn...and this sys will cont to be slo in tracking NE to off
the VA cst-Delmarva by Thu into Fri. A cdfnt approaches the wtrs
fm the NW Fri...pushing E and S of the wtrs Fri ngt...then
stalling ovr the Carolinas on Sat. That fnt pulls back N ovr the
wtrs lt Sat into Sun...then is followed by a cdfnt crossing the
wtrs fm the W lt Mon.

Persistent...mnly ENE wnds contg through Thu...becoming NNW w/
approach of/crossing of cdfnt lt Fri-Fri ngt. Another pd of (lgt)
onshore wnds xpcd this wknd...before becoming WSW Mon. Speeds
rmng aob 15 kt (into the wknd)...seas largely 3-4 ft...though may
build to 4-5 ft at times Wed into Thu eve (mnly S of Cape Charles)
as remnant lo pres tracks just off the mdatlc cst this timeframe.
Waves 1-2 ft with up to 3 ft possible at times in the mouth of
Ches Bay due to the onshore swell.


&&

.CLIMATE...
The monthly rainfall total at Richmond through Midnight May 30 is
9.79", adding to the new record for the month of May. Additional
rainfall is possible through this evening, which could push the
monthly total above 10". If this does occur, it would only be the
second occurrence of 10" or more of rain in a month prior to July.
The other occurrence was Jan 1937 (10.08").

    Top 5 wettest months of May at Richmond...

1. 9.79" 2016 (Through 5/30)
2. 9.13" 1889
3. 8.98" 1873
4. 8.87" 1972
5. 8.67" 1886

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAS/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...ALB
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 311826
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
226 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The remnants of Post Tropical Storm Bonnie will slowly slide
northeast along the Carolina coast through mid week. A cold front
then approaches from the west...crossing the area early Friday
into Friday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Now post-tropical remnants of Bonnie will continue to meander
along the Carolina coast today. Continued mild and moderately
humid, with low clouds and morning fog again giving way to
increasing aftn clouds and mainly diurnally driven showers and
storms. Expect most of pcpn to be focused mainly along the llvl
convergence boundary lifting across NE NC/SE VA counties this
afternoon into early evening. Farther north, Showers/thunderstorms
will be lower in areal coverage across northern tier of the local
area, owing to meager forcing aloft and relative subsidence in low
levels behind a weak front dropping across the area. Still, given
the very moist airmass, at least a low pop is warranted. Forecast
rain chances remain in chance to low end likely range 50-60%
across the southeast, tapering back to slight chance to low end
chance across the northeastern 1/3 of the forecast area. Look for
highs today in the low-mid 80s, coolest across the southeastern
coastal plain areas (NE NC/SE VA), where clouds should be thickest
with greater Shower coverage.

As with last night, expect forcing for ascent to shunt
offshore, with diminishing areal coverage of showers. Will
therefore go with a slight chc pop overnight tonight with
additional areas of fog late. Early morning lows mostly in the
low to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Again very little change to sensible wx on Wednesday. The
weakening remnant low lifts up toward the southern outer
banks/Crystal Coast Region, with more mainly diurnally-driven
showers and storms across our area. Continued seasonably warm and
moderately humid w/highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Forecast
PoPs Wednesday range from 20-30 percent inland to 40-50 percent
along the coast.

GFS a bit quicker than the operational ECMWF clearing out the
low for Thursday, and have gone with a blended solution for now
which is in good agreement with the going forecast. Bit of a
complicated setup for Thursday, with sfc low lingering off the
Northern OBX as weak cool front crosses in from the west late in
the day. Given the slower timing with the blended solution,
expect that the inherited slight chc pops will be sufficient
inland, with higher pops closer to the coast with the departing
low. Warmer and still moderately humid with highs in the low to
mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Cdfnt stalls invof Carolinas Fri night...w/ shras/psbl tstms
becoming confined to far srn/SE va and NE NC. The fnt moves back N
Sat-Sun as deep trough dives SE through the Great Lakes/Oh
Vly...bringing additional chcs for shras/tstms. On Mon...the next
cdfnt crosses the rgn (w/ psbl linger chcs for shras/tstms...though
will be trending POPs down fm W-E into Mon eve). Drying dp lyrd W
flo xpcd Mon ngt-Tue.

Highs Sat/Sun fm the m70s-arnd 80F at the cst to the l-m80s inland
Sat/Sun...then the l-m80s Mon and Tue. Lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Subsidence behind departing low pressure has resulted in much less
pcpn coverage than expected past several hours. However, plenty of
low level moisture remains so that the sct-bkn st of this morning
has only slowly lifted to cu between 2-4k ft this afternoon.

Tropical moisture bands continue to stream north across the north
carolina coastal plain and this moisture will likely make it at
least to near ecg before 00Z...thus went with VCSH there.
Otherwise...sct convection possible along seas breeze next several
hours as well...but timing into any one TAF site is problematic
given nothing on radar.

Guid suggests another night of low stratus and fog so expect local
ifr conditions once again late tonight. looks like a repeat performance
Wednesday.

outlook...sct convection with a cold front is expected to cross
the area from nw to se Fri aftn/evening. The front stalls along
the Carolinas Sat and another round of showers will be possible
across coastal sections.

&&

.MARINE...
update...SCA flags issued through 100 PM this aftn for srn waters
from Cape Charles Light to Currituck Light due to seas of 4-5ft.
Persistent onshore swell from the remnants of Bonnie are the
culprit. Will monitor seas through this morning should the SCA
flags need to be extended.

Previous discussion...
Patchy fog on Ern VA rivers well inland from Ches Bay and invof
Ocean City, MD. Conditions should improve by mid morning.
Otherwise, relatively quiet conditions anticipated over the
waters with east winds aob 10kt today/tonight. The remnants of
Bonnie over the Carolinas will continue to wrap rain showers into
the area through Wed night primarily from Cape Charles Light/New
Point Comfort swd...keeping periods of rain showers and aftn
thunder in the forecast during this time. Seas 3-4ft/waves 1-2ft.

Winds become more ene Wed and increase to 10-15kt along the
immediate coast through Thu as the remnant low of Bonnie tracks
over the NC Outer Banks during Thu and off the Mid Atlantic
coast/Delmarva on Fri. Seas expected to build to 4-5ft Wed night
into Thu before subsiding to 3-4ft Thu night. Waves build to 2-3ft
and then diminish to 1-2ft during the same timeframe. The last of
Bonnie finally gets pushed out to sea by Fri night as a cold front
crosses the region Fri aftn and across the waters Fri night. Winds
become more nely and diminish to 10kt or less on Fri...becoming
s-se ahead of the approaching front late Fri aftn into Fri evening.
The front stalls along the Carolinas on Sat and another round of
showers and aftn thunderstorms will be possible. Wind direction
briefly turns w-ne behind the front Fri night/Sat morning, and then
settles to a more sly direction through the rest of the upcoming
weekend...generally aob 15kt.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The monthly rainfall total at Richmond through Midnight May 30 is
9.79", adding to the new record for the month of May. Additional
rainfall is possible through this evening, which could push the
monthly total above 10". If this does occur, it would only be the
second occurrence of 10" or more of rain in a month prior to July.
The other occurrence was Jan 1937 (10.08").

    Top 5 wettest months of May at Richmond...

1. 9.79" 2016 (Through 5/30)
2. 9.13" 1889
3. 8.98" 1873
4. 8.87" 1972
5. 8.67" 1886

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAS/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...BMD
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 311744
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
144 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The remnants of Post Tropical Storm Bonnie will slowly slide
northeast along the Carolina coast through mid week. A cold front
then approaches from the west...crossing the area early Friday
into Friday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Now post-tropical remnants of Bonnie will continue to meander
along the Carolina coast today. Continued mild and moderately
humid, with low clouds and morning fog again giving way to
increasing aftn clouds and mainly diurnally driven showers and
storms. Expect most of pcpn to be focused mainly along the llvl
convergence boundary lifting across NE NC/SE VA counties this
afternoon into early evening. Farther north, Showers/thunderstorms
will be lower in areal coverage across northern tier of the local
area, owing to meager forcing aloft and relative subsidence in low
levels behind a weak front dropping across the area. Still, given
the very moist airmass, at least a low pop is warranted. Forecast
rain chances remain in chance to low end likely range 50-60%
across the southeast, tapering back to slight chance to low end
chance across the northeastern 1/3 of the forecast area. Look for
highs today in the low-mid 80s, coolest across the southeastern
coastal plain areas (NE NC/SE VA), where clouds should be thickest
with greater Shower coverage.

As with last night, expect forcing for ascent to shunt
offshore, with diminishing areal coverage of showers. Will
therefore go with a slight chc pop overnight tonight with
additional areas of fog late. Early morning lows mostly in the
low to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Again very little change to sensible wx on Wednesday. The
weakening remnant low lifts up toward the southern outer
banks/Crystal Coast Region, with more mainly diurnally-driven
showers and storms across our area. Continued seasonably warm and
moderately humid w/highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Forecast
PoPs Wednesday range from 20-30 percent inland to 40-50 percent
along the coast.

GFS a bit quicker than the operational ECMWF clearing out the
low for Thursday, and have gone with a blended solution for now
which is in good agreement with the going forecast. Bit of a
complicated setup for Thursday, with sfc low lingering off the
Northern OBX as weak cool front crosses in from the west late in
the day. Given the slower timing with the blended solution,
expect that the inherited slight chc pops will be sufficient
inland, with higher pops closer to the coast with the departing
low. Warmer and still moderately humid with highs in the low to
mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Unsettled wx expected through most of the extended pd. Remnant lo
pres to be slowly kicked out well off the coast Thu ngt through
Fri w/ approach of a cold front fm the nw and S/W aloft tracking
fm the Great Lakes/Oh Vly to the NE states. The front crosses the
fa Fri aftn/eve shras and psbl tstms...then stalls over the
Carolinas Fri ngt through Sat. The front is expected to be pulled
back N by Sun as a deep trough aloft dives SE through the Great
Lakes/Oh Vly...resulting in additional chcs for shras/tstms into
Mon.

Highs Fri fm the u70s on the Eastern shore to the l-m80s
elsewhere...then in the m-u70s at the coast and l80s inland
Sat/Sun and Mon. Lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Subsidence behind departing low pressure has resulted in much less
pcpn coverage than expected past several hours. However, plenty of
low level moisture remains so that the sct-bkn st of this morning
has only slowly lifted to cu between 2-4k ft this afternoon.

Tropical moisture bands continue to stream north across the north
carolina coastal plain and this moisture will likely make it at
least to near ecg before 00Z...thus went with VCSH there.
Otherwise...sct convection possible along seas breeze next several
hours as well...but timing into any one TAF site is problematic
given nothing on radar.

Guid suggests another night of low stratus and fog so expect local
ifr conditions once again late tonight. looks like a repeat performance
Wednesday.

outlook...sct convection with a cold front is expected to cross
the area from nw to se Fri aftn/evening. The front stalls along
the Carolinas Sat and another round of showers will be possible
across coastal sections.

&&

.MARINE...
update...SCA flags issued through 100 PM this aftn for srn waters
from Cape Charles Light to Currituck Light due to seas of 4-5ft.
Persistent onshore swell from the remnants of Bonnie are the
culprit. Will monitor seas through this morning should the SCA
flags need to be extended.

Previous discussion...
Patchy fog on Ern VA rivers well inland from Ches Bay and invof
Ocean City, MD. Conditions should improve by mid morning.
Otherwise, relatively quiet conditions anticipated over the
waters with east winds aob 10kt today/tonight. The remnants of
Bonnie over the Carolinas will continue to wrap rain showers into
the area through Wed night primarily from Cape Charles Light/New
Point Comfort swd...keeping periods of rain showers and aftn
thunder in the forecast during this time. Seas 3-4ft/waves 1-2ft.

Winds become more ene Wed and increase to 10-15kt along the
immediate coast through Thu as the remnant low of Bonnie tracks
over the NC Outer Banks during Thu and off the Mid Atlantic
coast/Delmarva on Fri. Seas expected to build to 4-5ft Wed night
into Thu before subsiding to 3-4ft Thu night. Waves build to 2-3ft
and then diminish to 1-2ft during the same timeframe. The last of
Bonnie finally gets pushed out to sea by Fri night as a cold front
crosses the region Fri aftn and across the waters Fri night. Winds
become more nely and diminish to 10kt or less on Fri...becoming
s-se ahead of the approaching front late Fri aftn into Fri evening.
The front stalls along the Carolinas on Sat and another round of
showers and aftn thunderstorms will be possible. Wind direction
briefly turns w-ne behind the front Fri night/Sat morning, and then
settles to a more sly direction through the rest of the upcoming
weekend...generally aob 15kt.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The monthly rainfall total at Richmond through Midnight May 30 is
9.79", adding to the new record for the month of May. Additional
rainfall is possible through this evening, which could push the
monthly total above 10". If this does occur, it would only be the
second occurrence of 10" or more of rain in a month prior to July.
The other occurrence was Jan 1937 (10.08").

    Top 5 wettest months of May at Richmond...

1. 9.79" 2016 (Through 5/30)
2. 9.13" 1889
3. 8.98" 1873
4. 8.87" 1972
5. 8.67" 1886

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAS/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...BMD
CLIMATE...



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPHI 311739
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
139 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will stall over the area today before dissipating
late tonight into Wednesday morning. High pressure builds in from
eastern Canada Wednesday and Thursday. A cold front will approach
from the west Thursday night and move through the Mid-Atlantic
region on Friday. High pressure briefly builds in Saturday. An area
of low pressure is forecast to move across the Great Lakes region
late in the weekend and then pass to our north early next week. A
cold front associated with this low pressure system will move
through during this time.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A weak cold front is dissipating across the area late this
morning and is along the i-95 corridor. Some cu development across
the Delmarva and srn NJ points to where the richer sfc moisture is
beginning to mix out with the sun. Sct showers will probably
develop across srn Delaware later this afternoon, so we will
continue with the low chc/slgt chc pops for these areas. The
temps/dew point and winds grids are mostly ok too. Wind direction
is rather variable across the Delaware Valley. Generally
srly/serly winds further south and mostly north or northeast
across ern pa and nrn nj. wind speeds mostly 5 to 10 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
The high to our north will continue to influence our weather through
tonight. The remnant moisture will exit the region for good and all
areas should remain dry overnight. Enough low level moisture across
the region may result in some patchy fog forming, especially across
the southern zones.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Wednesday and Thursday...High pressure builds down from Hudson
Bay Wednesday morning. The high will then shift eastward toward
the Canadian Maritime with it`s ridge axis extending southwestward
along the New England coast and Mid-Atlantic states Wednesday
afternoon through Thursday. With moisture returning back northward
around the periphery of the high, there is a potential for showers
to develop across eastern PA/MD during peak heating both Wednesday
and Thursday. Kept coverage of showers isolated and confined to
our far western forecast zones since models are showing a lack of
organized /larger-scale lift over us while the low-level theta-e
ridge and axis of convective instability develops farther inland.
Temps will be cool in the coastal plain and at the beaches on
Wednesday thanks to the onshore flow that develops under this
setup. There is an opportunity for highs to reach the lower 80s
from the Delaware Valley, westward with a fair amount of sunshine
to start the day. Slightly cooler temps (at or just below climo)
anticipated for Thursday as the onshore flow persists for a second
day, allowing for the marine layer and accompanied stratocu deck
to become better established across the entire area, even inland
locations.

Friday...High pressure along East Coast retreats offshore late in
the week as a cold front approaches from the west. The front looks
to make slow progress through our region Friday, perhaps not
moving offshore until Friday night. Meanwhile, the remnants of
Tropical Storm Bonnie that was stalled near the Southeast Coast is
forecast to finally lift northeastward and out to sea. Some of its
tropical moisture could be drawn poleward up the Eastern Seaboard
within the pre- frontal warm sector ahead the cold front. This
could enhance coverage of showers and storms as well as rainfall
amounts. The risk of locally heavy rainfall will depend on the
interaction between these systems and other environmental factors
on the mesoscale. Opted to keep any mention of a flooding threat
out of HWO for now given the limited support in the QPF fields
from forecast guidance and the limited predictability inherent
with determining the finer details on the mesoscale several days
out.

Saturday through Monday...The first half of the weekend looks to
be dry assuming the cold front has already moved offshore and high
pressure builds in from Canada. Precip chances increase later in
the weekend into early next week as an area of low pressure is
forecast to move into the Great Lakes on Sunday and the Northeast
on Monday. There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms during
this time along and ahead of the attendant cold front that is
forecast to move through our area. Near-normal temps will prevail
during the extended part of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

VFR has returned to the Delaware valley and Lehigh Valley
terminals. Winds rather light and variable. This should continue
into the afternoon.

With light winds expected, a sea breeze will likely develop along
the coast and will make it inland to KACY and possibly reach KMIV.

A few showers may develop this afternoon but are expected to
remain to the south of the terminals. Fog may form again tonight,
especially south and east of KPHL.

OUTLOOK...

Wednesday and Thursday...Light east to southeast winds. Marine
stratocu deck may result in MVFR cigs along the coast Wednesday
afternoon/night that expands inland by Thursday. IFR cannot be ruled
out along the coast overnight Wednesday and then overnight Thursday
across any of the terminals. Low confidence in timing/coverage of
these CIG restrictions.

Friday...MVFR with low clouds and fog at the start of the day
improves to mainly VFR by midday. Chance of showers and storms.
Temporary flight restrictions possible in heavier activity.
Otherwise, VFR.

Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
We have discontinued the Dense Fog Advisory that was in effect
earlier. The recent webcams and visible satellite images reveal
that the fog has diminished. More fog may redevelop tonight.

Winds and seas will remain below SCA flag conditions this
afternoon and tonight. Winds near the coast will be onshore at 5
to 10 knots.

OUTLOOK...

Wednesday through Saturday...Winds and seas below SCA criteria
through much of the outlook period. Winds will be under 20 kt and
generally onshore through Friday. They may briefly become more
northerly behind a front Friday night or Saturday. Seas in our
coastal Atlantic zones will mainly be between 2 and 4 ft throughout
the period.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Onshore flow is expected to develop on Wednesday and continue
into Friday. We will need to monitor the possibility of minor
tidal flooding at times of high tide along the coast late this
week owing to the persistent onshore flow and the approaching new
moon this Saturday.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Klein
Near Term...Meola
Short Term...Meola
Long Term...Drag/Klein
Aviation...Klein/Meola
Marine...Klein/Meola/Po
Tides/Coastal Flooding...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 311543
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1143 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The remnants of Post Tropical Storm Bonnie will slowly slide
northeast along the Carolina coast through mid week. A cold front
then approaches from the west...crossing the area early Friday
into Friday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Now post-tropical remnants of Bonnie will continue to meander
along the Carolina coast today. Continued mild and moderately
humid, with low clouds and morning fog again giving way to
increasing aftn clouds and mainly diurnally driven showers and
storms. Expect most of pcpn to be focused mainly along the llvl
convergence boundary lifting across NE NC/SE VA counties this
afternoon into early evening. Farther north, Showers/thunderstorms
will be lower in areal coverage across northern tier of the local
area, owing to meager forcing aloft and relative subsidence in low
levels behind a weak front dropping across the area. Still, given
the very moist airmass, at least a low pop is warranted. Forecast
rain chances remain in chance to low end likely range 50-60%
across the southeast, tapering back to slight chance to low end
chance across the northeastern 1/3 of the forecast area. Look for
highs today in the low-mid 80s, coolest across the southeastern
coastal plain areas (NE NC/SE VA), where clouds should be thickest
with greater Shower coverage.

As with last night, expect forcing for ascent to shunt
offshore, with diminishing areal coverage of showers. Will
therefore go with a slight chc pop overnight tonight with
additional areas of fog late. Early morning lows mostly in the
low to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Again very little change to sensible wx on Wednesday. The
weakening remnant low lifts up toward the southern outer
banks/Crystal Coast Region, with more mainly diurnally-driven
showers and storms across our area. Continued seasonably warm and
moderately humid w/highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Forecast
PoPs Wednesday range from 20-30 percent inland to 40-50 percent
along the coast.

GFS a bit quicker than the operational ECMWF clearing out the
low for Thursday, and have gone with a blended solution for now
which is in good agreement with the going forecast. Bit of a
complicated setup for Thursday, with sfc low lingering off the
Northern OBX as weak cool front crosses in from the west late in
the day. Given the slower timing with the blended solution,
expect that the inherited slight chc pops will be sufficient
inland, with higher pops closer to the coast with the departing
low. Warmer and still moderately humid with highs in the low to
mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Unsettled wx expected through most of the extended pd. Remnant lo
pres to be slowly kicked out well off the coast Thu ngt through
Fri w/ approach of a cold front fm the nw and S/W aloft tracking
fm the Great Lakes/Oh Vly to the NE states. The front crosses the
fa Fri aftn/eve shras and psbl tstms...then stalls over the
Carolinas Fri ngt through Sat. The front is expected to be pulled
back N by Sun as a deep trough aloft dives SE through the Great
Lakes/Oh Vly...resulting in additional chcs for shras/tstms into
Mon.

Highs Fri fm the u70s on the Eastern shore to the l-m80s
elsewhere...then in the m-u70s at the coast and l80s inland
Sat/Sun and Mon. Lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Rainfall has come to an end across most of the Mid Atlantic Region
early this morning with areas of fog and low stratus occurring
primarily along/south of the interstate 64 travel corridor.
Conditions at KRIC and KSBY are expected to drop to LIFR cigs with
visibilities around 1SM after 31/0900Z...improving to MVFR/VFR
cigs and visibilities after 31/1300Z. Coastal TAF sites KECG,
KORF, and KPHF should experience LIFR cigs with visibilities of
2-4SM during the same timeframe with similar improvements after
31/1300Z. The remnants of Bonnie over the Carolinas will continue
to wrap rain showers into the area through Wed night primarily
from KRIC swd...keeping periods of rain showers and aftn thunder
in the forecast during this time in addition to potentially foggy
conditions and LIFR cigs each night. Onshore E winds of 10kt or
less will be common at all TAF sites today/tonight. Winds become
more ene Wed and increase to 10-15kt along the immediate coast
through Thu.

The remnant low of Bonnie is then expected to track over the NC
Outer Banks on Thu and off the Mid Atlantic coast/Delmarva on
Fri...finally pushing out to sea by Fri night as a cold front
crosses the region. Precipitation should become more focused along
far Southeast VA and Northeast NC Thu/Thu night and moving off the
coast on Fri. Precipitation with the incoming cold front is
expected to cross the area from nw to se Fri aftn/evening. The
front stalls along the Carolinas on Sat and another round of
showers will be possible across the se half of the area (dry nw).
Thunderstorms will be possible each aftn/evening Thu-Sat.

&&

.MARINE...
update...SCA flags issued through 100 PM this aftn for srn waters
from Cape Charles Light to Currituck Light due to seas of 4-5ft.
Persistent onshore swell from the remnants of Bonnie are the
culprit. Will monitor seas through this morning should the SCA
flags need to be extended.

Previous discussion...
Patchy fog on Ern VA rivers well inland from Ches Bay and invof
Ocean City, MD. Conditions should improve by mid morning.
Otherwise, relatively quiet conditions anticipated over the
waters with east winds aob 10kt today/tonight. The remnants of
Bonnie over the Carolinas will continue to wrap rain showers into
the area through Wed night primarily from Cape Charles Light/New
Point Comfort swd...keeping periods of rain showers and aftn
thunder in the forecast during this time. Seas 3-4ft/waves 1-2ft.

Winds become more ene Wed and increase to 10-15kt along the
immediate coast through Thu as the remnant low of Bonnie tracks
over the NC Outer Banks during Thu and off the Mid Atlantic
coast/Delmarva on Fri. Seas expected to build to 4-5ft Wed night
into Thu before subsiding to 3-4ft Thu night. Waves build to 2-3ft
and then diminish to 1-2ft during the same timeframe. The last of
Bonnie finally gets pushed out to sea by Fri night as a cold front
crosses the region Fri aftn and across the waters Fri night. Winds
become more nely and diminish to 10kt or less on Fri...becoming
s-se ahead of the approaching front late Fri aftn into Fri evening.
The front stalls along the Carolinas on Sat and another round of
showers and aftn thunderstorms will be possible. Wind direction
briefly turns w-ne behind the front Fri night/Sat morning, and then
settles to a more sly direction through the rest of the upcoming
weekend...generally aob 15kt.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The monthly rainfall total at Richmond through Midnight May 30 is
9.79", adding to the new record for the month of May. Additional
rainfall is possible through this evening, which could push the
monthly total above 10". If this does occur, it would only be the
second occurrence of 10" or more of rain in a month prior to July.
The other occurrence was Jan 1937 (10.08").

    Top 5 wettest months of May at Richmond...

1. 9.79" 2016 (Through 5/30)
2. 9.13" 1889
3. 8.98" 1873
4. 8.87" 1972
5. 8.67" 1886

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAS/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KLWX 311157
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
757 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will remain near the region through Thursday
night. A cold front will pass through from the west later Friday
into Friday night. High pressure may briefly build into the area
Saturday before a stronger cold approaches Sunday before passing
through Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Extended Dense Fog Advisory for some portions of eastern West
Virginia and the Shenandoah Valley of Virginia through 10AM where
fog is taking its time breaking. Elsewhere...fog is lifting and
the advisory was allowed to expire.

Previous Discussion...
Weak boundary, barely noticeable except for weak wind shift and
slight decrease in dew points, will continue sinking southward
through the region this morning. Have seen areas of fog develop,
and these will continue through the early morning hours until it
lifts and dissipates after sunrise. Otherwise, looking at a mostly
sunny day for most with light east/northeast flow behind boundary.
Closer to the boundary across far southern Maryland and into
central Virginia/West Virginia may see a few showers/thunderstorms
develop today with 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE and convergence along
boundary, along with added lift from the higher terrain of the
Blue Ridge and Allegheny Highlands. Severe storms not likely with
very weak wind field. Highs generally 82-87F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Another weak boundary will approach the area this evening and
tonight, but should largely stay north of the region and wash out
as it propagates southward. May re-inforce light northeast flow as
it does so. Some hi-res guidance does try to bring a few
showers/storms towards western/northern Maryland along boundary,
so have placed in some slight chance POPs there for a few hours
this evening. Otherwise a generally quiet night with additional
fog development likely. Lows upper 50s to mid 60s.

Wednesday will continue to see light easterly flow with high
pressure nosing into New England. Will see additional chances for
a few showers/thunderstorms, especially areas along the Blue Ridge
and west closer to remnant boundary and higher terrain. Again,
severe storms not expected. Highs low 80s.

High pressure builds further down the coastline Wednesday night
into Thursday, keeping area in light easterly flow. This will be
best chance for marine layer with potential for low clouds/fog
Wednesday night into Thursday morning before breaking Thursday
afternoon. Later on Thursday will also see gradual approach of
cold front from the west. Shower/thunderstorm chances again
highest west of the Blue Ridge and Allegheny Front with easterly
flow, terrain enhancement, and approaching front. High temps
Thursday will be dependent on cloud cover and extent of possible
marine layer but will show upper 70s to low 80s for now. Cold
front will be on the doorstep of the region by Friday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front will slowly pass through the area later Friday into
Friday night...bringing the chance for some showers and
thunderstorms. The best chance for convection will be during the
afternoon and evening hours. Seasonably warm and humid conditions
are expected ahead of the front with max temps in the 80s for most
locations.

Weak high pressure may briefly build into the area Saturday behind
the front. A couple showers and thunderstorms cannot be completely
ruled out...especially across central Virginia where there may be a
little more moisture. However...coverage will be limited and most
areas may end up dry and seasonably warm.

A stronger cold front will approach from the west Sunday before
passing through Sunday night into Monday. A southerly flow will
allow for warm and humid conditions ahead of the boundary...and this
will cause more instability. The instability will combine with
forcing from the front to trigger some showers and thunderstorms.
Some thunderstorms may contain gusty winds and hail along with
locally heavy rainfall.

Cooler and less humid conditions are expected behind the front early
next week...but an upper-level trough will build overhead during
this time. Most of the time should turn out dry due to the dry air
advection...but a couple showers cannot be completely ruled out due
to the upper-level trough overhead.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A variety of flight categories early this morning with areas of
IFR or lower conditions in low clouds and fog. Will see these
conditions break after sunrise with VFR expected area-wide for the
remainder of the day. Could be an isolated shower or thunderstorm
near CHO but will leave out for now due to low
confidence/coverage.

Additional areas of fog possible again later tonight into
Wednesday morning, along with some isolated/scattered
showers/thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon, especially MRB/CHO. Sub-
IFR conditions possible yet again Wednesday night into Thursday
with marine layer.

Winds generally less than 10 knots through Thursday, ranging from
NE-SE.

Low clouds and patchy fog are expected early
Friday...but cigs should improve throughout the day.
However...there will be a few showers and thunderstorms that
develop during the afternoon and evening hours as a cold front
moves through.

Drier air should move in behind the cold front overnight Friday and
Saturday...bringing vfr conditions to most of the terminals. There
still may be enough moisture for a popup shower/thunderstorm
Saturday afternoon in central Virginia near KCHO.

Another cold front will approach the terminals Sunday into Sunday
night. There is a better chance for thunderstorms ahead of this
boundary.

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA winds expected through at least Wednesday with surface
flow generally northeast to southeast less than 15 knots. Near-
SCA conditions possible Wednesday night into Thursday.

A cold front will pass through the waters late Friday into Friday
night. A few showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of the
boundary. Weak high pressure may build in behind the front for
Saturday. The gradient should be weak enough for winds to remain
below sca criteria during most of this period.

There is a better chance for thunderstorms Sunday into Sunday night
ahead of an approaching cold front. Gradient winds may gust close to
sca criteria from the south during this time.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for MDZ502.
VA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for VAZ026-027-
     029>031.
     Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for VAZ028-
     036>039-050.
WV...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for WVZ052-053-
     055-502-506.
     Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for WVZ050-051-
     504.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...MM/RCM
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/MM
MARINE...BJL/MM




000
FXUS61 KLWX 310825
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
425 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will remain near the region through Thursday
night. A cold front will pass through from the west later Friday
into Friday night. High pressure may briefly build into the area
Saturday before a stronger cold approaches Sunday before passing
through Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Quick update to issue Dense Fog Advisory for areas of eastern West
Virginia...central Virginia...and central Allegheny County in
Maryland. Fog will create reductions in visibility to a quarter
of a mile or less in the early morning hours.

Previous Discussion...
Weak boundary, barely noticeable except for weak wind shift and
slight decrease in dew points, will continue sinking southward
through the region this morning. Have seen areas of fog develop,
and these will continue through the early morning hours until it
lifts and dissipates after sunrise. Otherwise, looking at a mostly
sunny day for most with light east/northeast flow behind boundary.
Closer to the boundary across far southern Maryland and into
central Virginia/West Virginia may see a few showers/thunderstorms
develop today with 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE and convergence along
boundary, along with added lift from the higher terrain of the
Blue Ridge and Allegheny Highlands. Severe storms not likely with
very weak wind field. Highs generally 82-87F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Another weak boundary will approach the area this evening and
tonight, but should largely stay north of the region and wash out
as it propagates southward. May re-inforce light northeast flow as
it does so. Some hi-res guidance does try to bring a few
showers/storms towards western/northern Maryland along boundary,
so have placed in some slight chance POPs there for a few hours
this evening. Otherwise a generally quiet night with additional
fog development likely. Lows upper 50s to mid 60s.

Wednesday will continue to see light easterly flow with high
pressure nosing into New England. Will see additional chances for
a few showers/thunderstorms, especially areas along the Blue Ridge
and west closer to remnant boundary and higher terrain. Again,
severe storms not expected. Highs low 80s.

High pressure builds further down the coastline Wednesday night
into Thursday, keeping area in light easterly flow. This will be
best chance for marine layer with potential for low clouds/fog
Wednesday night into Thursday morning before breaking Thursday
afternoon. Later on Thursday will also see gradual approach of
cold front from the west. Shower/thunderstorm chances again
highest west of the Blue Ridge and Allegheny Front with easterly
flow, terrain enhancement, and approaching front. High temps
Thursday will be dependent on cloud cover and extent of possible
marine layer but will show upper 70s to low 80s for now. Cold
front will be on the doorstep of the region by Friday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front will slowly pass through the area later Friday into
Friday night...bringing the chance for some showers and
thunderstorms. The best chance for convection will be during the
afternoon and evening hours. Seasonably warm and humid conditions
are expected ahead of the front with max temps in the 80s for most
locations.

Weak high pressure may briefly build into the area Saturday behind
the front. A couple showers and thunderstorms cannot be completely
ruled out...especially across central Virginia where there may be a
little more moisture. However...coverage will be limited and most
areas may end up dry and seasonably warm.

A stronger cold front will approach from the west Sunday before
passing through Sunday night into Monday. A southerly flow will
allow for warm and humid conditions ahead of the boundary...and this
will cause more instability. The instability will combine with
forcing from the front to trigger some showers and thunderstorms.
Some thunderstorms may contain gusty winds and hail along with
locally heavy rainfall.

Cooler and less humid conditions are expected behind the front early
next week...but an upper-level trough will build overhead during
this time. Most of the time should turn out dry due to the dry air
advection...but a couple showers cannot be completely ruled out due
to the upper-level trough overhead.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A variety of flight categories early this morning with areas of
IFR or lower conditions in low clouds and fog. Will see these
conditions break after sunrise with VFR expected area-wide for the
remainder of the day. Could be an isolated shower or thunderstorm
near CHO but will leave out for now due to low
confidence/coverage.

Additional areas of fog possible again later tonight into
Wednesday morning, along with some isolated/scattered
showers/thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon, especially MRB/CHO. Sub-
IFR conditions possible yet again Wednesday night into Thursday
with marine layer.

Winds generally less than 10 knots through Thursday, ranging from
NE-SE.

Low clouds and patchy fog are expected early
Friday...but cigs should improve throughout the day.
However...there will be a few showers and thunderstorms that
develop during the afternoon and evening hours as a cold front
moves through.

Drier air should move in behind the cold front overnight Friday and
Saturday...bringing vfr conditions to most of the terminals. There
still may be enough moisture for a popup shower/thunderstorm
Saturday afternoon in central Virginia near KCHO.

Another cold front will approach the terminals Sunday into Sunday
night. There is a better chance for thunderstorms ahead of this
boundary.

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA winds expected through at least Wednesday with surface
flow generally northeast to southeast less than 15 knots. Near-
SCA conditions possible Wednesday night into Thursday.

A cold front will pass through the waters late Friday into Friday
night. A few showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of the
boundary. Weak high pressure may build in behind the front for
Saturday. The gradient should be weak enough for winds to remain
below sca criteria during most of this period.

There is a better chance for thunderstorms Sunday into Sunday night
ahead of an approaching cold front. Gradient winds may gust close to
sca criteria from the south during this time.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for MDZ502.
VA...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for VAZ026>031-
     036>039-050.
WV...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for WVZ050>053-
     055-502-504-506.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...MM
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/MM
MARINE...BJL/MM




000
FXUS61 KPHI 310759
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
359 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will stall over the area today before dissipating
late tonight into Wednesday morning. High pressure builds in from
eastern Canada Wednesday and Thursday. A cold front will approach
from the west Thursday night and move through the Mid-Atlantic
region on Friday. High pressure briefly builds in Saturday. An area
of low pressure is forecast to move across the Great Lakes region
late in the weekend and then pass to our north early next week. A
cold front associated with this low pressure system will move
through during this time.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
At 330 am, the cold front was located across northwestern New
Jersey, extending to the southwest through the Lehigh Valley. The
front doesn`t make much progress today and looks like it just
dissipates over our area later today.

Weak high pressure will start to push down from the north today. As
the high pushes in, the skies will start to clear from west to east
and we should have plenty of sunshine across the region. It may take
a little bit longer for the skies to clear across eastern areas but
still anticipate that the sun will make an appearance today.

The front is dry and we do not anticipate any precipitation
associated with this feature. However, the moisture from Bonnie`s
remnants may still push up into our southern areas. Confidence is
not high that much will materialize but have kept some slight chance
pops over the southern part of Delaware and Maryland`s eastern shore
for this afternoon and early evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
The high to our north will continue to influence our weather through
tonight. The remnant moisture will exit the region for good and all
areas should remain dry overnight. Enough low level moisture across
the region may result in some patchy fog forming, especially across
the southern zones.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Wednesday and Thursday...High pressure builds down from Hudson
Bay Wednesday morning. The high will then shift eastward toward
the Canadian Maritime with it`s ridge axis extending southwestward
along the New England coast and Mid-Atlantic states Wednesday
afternoon through Thursday. With moisture returning back northward
around the periphery of the high, there is a potential for showers
to develop across eastern PA/MD during peak heating both Wednesday
and Thursday. Kept coverage of showers isolated and confined to
our far western forecast zones since models are showing a lack of
organized /larger-scale lift over us while the low-level theta-e
ridge and axis of convective instability develops farther inland.
Temps will be cool in the coastal plain and at the beaches on
Wednesday thanks to the onshore flow that develops under this
setup. There is an opportunity for highs to reach the lower 80s
from the Delaware Valley, westward with a fair amount of sunshine
to start the day. Slightly cooler temps (at or just below climo)
anticipated for Thursday as the onshore flow persists for a second
day, allowing for the marine layer and accompanied stratocu deck
to become better established across the entire area, even inland
locations.

Friday...High pressure along East Coast retreats offshore late in
the week as a cold front approaches from the west. The front looks
to make slow progress through our region Friday, perhaps not
moving offshore until Friday night. Meanwhile, the remnants of
Tropical Storm Bonnie that was stalled near the Southeast Coast is
forecast to finally lift northeastward and out to sea. Some of its
tropical moisture could be drawn poleward up the Eastern Seaboard
within the pre- frontal warm sector ahead the cold front. This
could enhance coverage of showers and storms as well as rainfall
amounts. The risk of locally heavy rainfall will depend on the
interaction between these systems and other environmental factors
on the mesoscale. Opted to keep any mention of a flooding threat
out of HWO for now given the limited support in the QPF fields
from forecast guidance and the limited predictability inherent
with determining the finer details on the mesoscale several days
out.

Saturday through Monday...The first half of the weekend looks to
be dry assuming the cold front has already moved offshore and high
pressure builds in from Canada. Precip chances increase later in
the weekend into early next week as an area of low pressure is
forecast to move into the Great Lakes on Sunday and the Northeast
on Monday. There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms during
this time along and ahead of the attendant cold front that is
forecast to move through our area. Near-normal temps will prevail
during the extended part of the forecast period.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

MVFR/IFR conditions this morning in fog and low clouds will clear
between 12Z-14Z at the terminals, becoming VFR across the region.
Light winds will gradually pick up but remain less than 10 knots
through the day.

With light winds expected, a sea breeze will likely develop along
the coast and will make it inland to KACY and possibly reach KMIV.

A few showers may develop this afternoon but are expected to
remain to the south of the terminals. Fog may form again tonight,
especially south and east of KPHL.

OUTLOOK...

Wednesday and Thursday...Light east to southeast winds. Marine
stratocu deck may result in MVFR cigs along the coast Wednesday
afternoon/night that expands inland by Thursday. IFR cannot be ruled
out along the coast overnight Wednesday and then overnight Thursday
across any of the terminals. Low confidence in timing/coverage of
these CIG restrictions.

Friday...MVFR with low clouds and fog at the start of the day
improves to mainly VFR by midday. Chance of showers and storms.
Temporary flight restrictions possible in heavier activity.
Otherwise, VFR.

Saturday...Mainly VFR.


&&

.MARINE...
The dense fog advisory continues on the ocean waters and lower
Delaware Bay through 6 am.

Other than fog being an issue on the waters, conditions look to be
fairly benign. Seas will remain around 2 to 4 feet through today.
Winds will remain light through the day, but may pick up this
afternoon out of the east.

OUTLOOK...

Wednesday through Saturday...Winds and seas below SCA criteria
through much of the outlook period. Winds will be under 20 kt and
generally onshore through Friday. They may briefly become more
northerly behind a front Friday night or Saturday. Seas in our
coastal Atlantic zones will mainly be between 2 and 4 ft throughout
the period.


&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Onshore flow is expected to develop on Wednesday and continue
into Friday. We will need to monitor the possibility of minor
tidal flooding at times of high tide along the coast late this
week owing to the persistent onshore flow and the approaching new
moon this Saturday.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ431-450>455.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Klein
Near Term...Meola
Short Term...Meola
Long Term...Drag/Klein
Aviation...Klein/Meola
Marine...Klein/Meola
Tides/Coastal Flooding...Klein




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 310743 AAC
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
343 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The remnants of Post Tropical Storm Bonnie will slowly slide
northeast along the Carolina coast through mid week. A cold front
then approaches from the west...crossing the area early Friday
into Friday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Latest sfc analysis shows the remnant low of Post-Tropical Storm
Bonnie about 40 mi NNE of CHS per 06z advisory from NHC. Regional
radar mosiac showing showers sliding farther offshore, generally
focused along and just east of a trough of low pressure just off
the Carolina/mid-atlantic coast. Once again noting some fog
developing across the sw corner of the area, with the NARRE and
HRRR both showing some areas of fog/low stratus becoming a bit
more widespread in a few hrs time. Will keep an eye on this for
another round of SPS` toward daybreak.

Now post-tropical remnants of Bonnie will continue to meander along
the Carolina coast today. Continued mild and moderately humid,
with low clouds and morning fog again giving way to increasing
aftn clouds and mainly diurnally driven showers and storms. Expect
most of pcpn to be focused mainly along the llvl convergence
boundary lifting across NE NC/SE VA counties this afternoon into
early evening. Farther north, Showers/thunderstorms will be lower
in areal coverage across northern tier of the local area, owing to
meager forcing aloft and relative subsidence in low levels behind
a weak front dropping across the area. Still, given the very moist
airmass, at least a low pop is warranted. Forecast rain chances
remain in chance to low end likely range 50-60% across the
southeast, tapering back to slight chance to low end chance across
the northeastern 1/3 of the forecast area. Look for highs today in
the low-mid 80s, coolest across the southeastern coastal plain
areas (NE NC/SE VA), where clouds should be thickest with greater
Shower coverage.

As with last night, expect forcing for ascent to shunt
offshore, with diminishing areal coverage of showers. Will
therefore go with a slight chc pop overnight tonight with
additional areas of fog late. Early morning lows mostly in the
low to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Again very little change to sensible wx on Wednesday. The
weakening remnant low lifts up toward the southern outer
banks/Crystal Coast Region, with more mainly diurnally-driven
showers and storms across our area. Continued seasonably warm and
moderately humid w/highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Forecast
PoPs Wednesday range from 20-30 percent inland to 40-50 percent
along the coast.

GFS a bit quicker than the operational ECMWF clearing out the
low for Thursday, and have gone with a blended solution for now
which is in good agreement with the going forecast. Bit of a
complicated setup for Thursday, with sfc low lingering off the
Northern OBX as weak cool front crosses in from the west late in
the day. Given the slower timing with the blended solution,
expect that the inherited slight chc pops will be sufficient
inland, with higher pops closer to the coast with the departing
low. Warmer and still moderately humid with highs in the low to
mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Unsettled wx expected through most of the extended pd. Remnant lo
pres to be slowly kicked out well off the coast Thu ngt through
Fri w/ approach of a cold front fm the nw and S/W aloft tracking
fm the Great Lakes/Oh Vly to the NE states. The front crosses the
fa Fri aftn/eve shras and psbl tstms...then stalls over the
Carolinas Fri ngt through Sat. The front is expected to be pulled
back N by Sun as a deep trough aloft dives SE through the Great
Lakes/Oh Vly...resulting in additional chcs for shras/tstms into
Mon.

Highs Fri fm the u70s on the Eastern shore to the l-m80s
elsewhere...then in the m-u70s at the coast and l80s inland
Sat/Sun and Mon. Lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Rainfall has come to an end across most of the Mid Atlantic Region
early this morning with areas of fog and low stratus occurring
primarily along/south of the interstate 64 travel corridor.
Conditions at KRIC and KSBY are expected to drop to LIFR cigs with
visibilities around 1SM after 31/0900Z...improving to MVFR/VFR
cigs and visibilities after 31/1300Z. Coastal TAF sites KECG,
KORF, and KPHF should experience LIFR cigs with visibilities of
2-4SM during the same timeframe with similar improvements after
31/1300Z. The remnants of Bonnie over the Carolinas will continue
to wrap rain showers into the area through Wed night primarily
from KRIC swd...keeping periods of rain showers and aftn thunder
in the forecast during this time in addition to potentially foggy
conditions and LIFR cigs each night. Onshore E winds of 10kt or
less will be common at all TAF sites today/tonight. Winds become
more ene Wed and increase to 10-15kt along the immediate coast
through Thu.

The remnant low of Bonnie is then expected to track over the NC
Outer Banks on Thu and off the Mid Atlantic coast/Delmarva on
Fri...finally pushing out to sea by Fri night as a cold front
crosses the region. Precipitation should become more focused along
far Southeast VA and Northeast NC Thu/Thu night and moving off the
coast on Fri. Precipitation with the incoming cold front is
expected to cross the area from nw to se Fri aftn/evening. The
front stalls along the Carolinas on Sat and another round of
showers will be possible across the se half of the area (dry nw).
Thunderstorms will be possible each aftn/evening Thu-Sat.

&&

.MARINE...
Patchy fog possible on Ern VA rivers well inland from Ches Bay.
Conditions should improve shortly after sunrise this morning.
Otherwise, relatively quiet conditions anticipated over the waters
with east winds aob 10kt today/tonight. The remnants of Bonnie over
the Carolinas will continue to wrap rain showers into the area
through Wed night primarily from Cape Charles Light/New Point
Comfort swd...keeping periods of rain showers and aftn thunder in
the forecast during this time. Seas 3-4ft/waves 1-2ft.

Winds become more ene Wed and increase to 10-15kt along the
immediate coast through Thu as the remnant low of Bonnie tracks
over the NC Outer Banks during Thu and off the Mid Atlantic
coast/Delmarva on Fri. Seas expected to build to 4-5ft Wed night
into Thu before subsiding to 3-4ft Thu night. Waves build to 2-3ft
and then diminish to 1-2ft during the same timeframe. The last of
Bonnie finally gets pushed out to sea by Fri night as a cold front
crosses the region Fri aftn and across the waters Fri night. Winds
become more nely and diminish to 10kt or less on Fri...becoming
s-se ahead of the approaching front late Fri aftn into Fri evening.
The front stalls along the Carolinas on Sat and another round of
showers and aftn thunderstorms will be possible. Wind direction
briefly turns w-ne behind the front Fri night/Sat morning, and then
settles to a more sly direction through the rest of the upcoming
weekend...generally aob 15kt.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The monthly rainfall total at Richmond through Midnight May 30 is
9.76", adding to the new record for the month of May. Additional
rainfall is possible through this evening, which could push the
monthly total above 10". If this does occur, it would only be the
second occurrence of 10" or more of rain in a month prior to July.
The other occurrence was Jan 1937 (10.08").

    Top 5 wettest months of May at Richmond...

1. 9.76" 2016 (Through 5/30)
2. 9.13" 1889
3. 8.98" 1873
4. 8.87" 1972
5. 8.67" 1886

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KLWX 310735
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
335 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will remain near the region through Thursday
night. A cold front will pass through from the west later Friday
into Friday night. High pressure may briefly build into the area
Saturday before a stronger cold approaches Sunday before passing
through Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Weak boundary, barely noticeable except for weak wind shift and
slight decrease in dew points, will continue sinking southward
through the region this morning. Have seen areas of fog develop,
and these will continue through the early morning hours until it
lifts and dissipates after sunrise. Otherwise, looking at a mostly
sunny day for most with light east/northeast flow behind boundary.
Closer to the boundary across far southern Maryland and into
central Virginia/West Virginia may see a few showers/thunderstorms
develop today with 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE and convergence along
boundary, along with added lift from the higher terrain of the
Blue Ridge and Allegheny Highlands. Severe storms not likely with
very weak wind field. Highs generally 82-87F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Another weak boundary will approach the area this evening and
tonight, but should largely stay north of the region and wash out
as it propagates southward. May re-inforce light northeast flow as
it does so. Some hi-res guidance does try to bring a few
showers/storms towards western/northern Maryland along boundary,
so have placed in some slight chance POPs there for a few hours
this evening. Otherwise a generally quiet night with additional
fog development likely. Lows upper 50s to mid 60s.

Wednesday will continue to see light easterly flow with high
pressure nosing into New England. Will see additional chances for
a few showers/thunderstorms, especially areas along the Blue Ridge
and west closer to remnant boundary and higher terrain. Again,
severe storms not expected. Highs low 80s.

High pressure builds further down the coastline Wednesday night
into Thursday, keeping area in light easterly flow. This will be
best chance for marine layer with potential for low clouds/fog
Wednesday night into Thursday morning before breaking Thursday
afternoon. Later on Thursday will also see gradual approach of
cold front from the west. Shower/thunderstorm chances again
highest west of the Blue Ridge and Allegheny Front with easterly
flow, terrain enhancement, and approaching front. High temps
Thursday will be dependent on cloud cover and extent of possible
marine layer but will show upper 70s to low 80s for now. Cold
front will be on the doorstep of the region by Friday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front will slowly pass through the area later Friday into
Friday night...bringing the chance for some showers and
thunderstorms. The best chance for convection will be during the
afternoon and evening hours. Seasonably warm and humid conditions
are expected ahead of the front with max temps in the 80s for most
locations.

Weak high pressure may briefly build into the area Saturday behind
the front. A couple showers and thunderstorms cannot be completely
ruled out...especially across central Virginia where there may be a
little more moisture. However...coverage will be limited and most
areas may end up dry and seasonably warm.

A stronger cold front will approach from the west Sunday before
passing through Sunday night into Monday. A southerly flow will
allow for warm and humid conditions ahead of the boundary...and this
will cause more instability. The instability will combine with
forcing from the front to trigger some showers and thunderstorms.
Some thunderstorms may contain gusty winds and hail along with
locally heavy rainfall.

Cooler and less humid conditions are expected behind the front early
next week...but an upper-level trough will build overhead during
this time. Most of the time should turn out dry due to the dry air
advection...but a couple showers cannot be completely ruled out due
to the upper-level trough overhead.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A variety of flight categories early this morning with areas of
IFR or lower conditions in low clouds and fog. Will see these
conditions break after sunrise with VFR expected area-wide for the
remainder of the day. Could be an isolated shower or thunderstorm
near CHO but will leave out for now due to low
confidence/coverage.

Additional areas of fog possible again later tonight into
Wednesday morning, along with some isolated/scattered
showers/thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon, especially MRB/CHO. Sub-
IFR conditions possible yet again Wednesday night into Thursday
with marine layer.

Winds generally less than 10 knots through Thursday, ranging from
NE-SE.

Low clouds and patchy fog are expected early
Friday...but cigs should improve throughout the day.
However...there will be a few showers and thunderstorms that
develop during the afternoon and evening hours as a cold front
moves through.

Drier air should move in behind the cold front overnight Friday and
Saturday...bringing vfr conditions to most of the terminals. There
still may be enough moisture for a popup shower/thunderstorm
Saturday afternoon in central Virginia near KCHO.

Another cold front will approach the terminals Sunday into Sunday
night. There is a better chance for thunderstorms ahead of this
boundary.

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA winds expected through at least Wednesday with surface
flow generally northeast to southeast less than 15 knots. Near-
SCA conditions possible Wednesday night into Thursday.

A cold front will pass through the waters late Friday into Friday
night. A few showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of the
boundary. Weak high pressure may build in behind the front for
Saturday. The gradient should be weak enough for winds to remain
below sca criteria during most of this period.

There is a better chance for thunderstorms Sunday into Sunday night
ahead of an approaching cold front. Gradient winds may gust close to
sca criteria from the south during this time.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...MM
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/MM
MARINE...BJL/MM



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310504
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
104 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and seasonably warm weather can then be expected into mid
week. A disturbance will increase rain chances Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Clear skies and calm winds tonight under high pressure, with
temperatures closer to the seasonal averages.

Abundant sunshine Tuesday under high pressure with high temperatures
about 5 degrees above average.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Subsidence with high pressure is expected to maintain dry weather
into Wednesday with temperatures warming into the mid 80s again.
Thereafter, general model agreement is of a mid level trough and
associated cold front approaching Wednesday night and over the
region Thursday. Have generally persisted with precipitation
probabilities, which were gradually escalated on Wednesday night
and into Thursday despite some guidance indicating more rapid
onset. Above average temperatures are anticipated given the warm,
moist advection in advance of that feature, forecast for which was
constructed via tweaked superblend guidance.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Model guidance suggests that the front will lag in complete passage
through Friday; thus, chance pops were maintained. Despite some
upper level pattern differences by Saturday, model consensus
suggests a deepening trough over the eastern-CONUS/Great Lakes as
a ridge builds in the west. A series of shortwaves within flow are
progged to maintain shower chances through this period. Given the
uncertainty in timing of those disturbances, will keep pops and
temperatures at or below superblend guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
General VFR for the forecast period. Exception will be the risk
for pre-dawn fog. Confidence is low on the extent and density of
possible fog, so used yesterday`s obs as a guide. With the
exception of LBE forecast mvfr fog, with lifr possible at LBE. Any
fog that does form will burn off quickly with sunrise.

.OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Restrictions are likely with a late week cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPHI 310438
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1238 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical moisture remained over eastern New Jersey and the Delmarva
Monday afternoon. This moisture will shift off the coast this
evening as a cold front approaches from the west. The cold front
will track through the region late Monday night into early Tuesday.
High pressure will follow for the middle of the week. A cold front,
attached to low pressure moving across eastern Canada, will slide
across the Mid Atlantic region on Friday or Saturday. The remainder
of the forecast period looks to be unsettled due to another
approaching low pressure system.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
It looks like the rain associated with the remnants of Bonnie has
finally moved to the east and the rain that had developed in front
of the cold front has dissipated. Things should be drying out as
the front crosses the region overnight.

Despite lower dew points behind the front, fog should develop
across most areas tonight given the very wet ground. However,
given the drier air moving in, do not expect widespread dense fog
on land. Low tonight...mild with mid/upper 60s in most areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
Weak high pressure will arrive across the area Tuesday. Skies will
be mostly sunny across most of the region with some cloudiness
across the Delmarva and extreme srn NJ. We will continue with slgt
chance or low chance pops across these areas...since some of the
low level moisture from Mondays system will not yet have exited
these areas. It will be a warm day with highs in the low/mid 80s
across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Overview...The period starts with a cold front exiting stage right
in the atlantic, with another weak cold front well to our north
situated west to east from the Great Lakes east to Maine. This front
will eventually lift north away from the region as surface high
pressure and mid-level ridging builds in. High pressure will be the
main story Wednesday through at least Thursday, maybe into Friday. A
cold front is forecast to cross the area on Friday or Saturday. For
the remainder of the weekend and into early next week, a deep trough
is forecast to settle over the east as strong ridging develops over
the Rockies.

Temperatures...For reference, normals for PHL are in the upper 70s
and upper 50s. For the period, temperatures will be near or above
normal. Depending on how deep and fast the east coast trof becomes
established, the end of the period could transition into the below
normal range.

Precipitation...Small POP showers have been been painted in the
grids for Tuesday night across the southern zones. Currently, dry
conditions are expected Wednesday into Thursday, but keep an eye
open over the ocean to see if any stratus and/or fog develops and
gets pushed onshore. Scattered thunderstorms are expected late in
the week with the cold front. Then the mid-level trof is forecast to
take over and provide the region with unsettled weather.

Winds...Winds will become northeast Tuesday night and go east on
Wednesday and then southeast before the frontal passage. Winds will
go northwest behind the late week cold front, then southwest as the
trof settles in. It could be a bit gusty on Wednesday and Thursday,
especially near the coast.

Impacts...The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Many TAF sites will start this evening VFR, but expect areas of
fog to develop across much of the region, reducing visibilities to
at least MVFR and possibly IFR (especially for locations that have
seen heavy rain over the last 24 hours such as KILG, KPHL, and
KPNE). The fog should continue through much of the night.
Visibilities should begin to improve between 10 and 15Z.

Winds will be southerly or southwesterly to begin the TAF period,
shifting to northwesterly by 12Z as a cold front moves through the
region. However, wind speeds through out the TAF period should be
near or below 10KT. There is a chance that a sea breeze could
develop tomorrow afternoon, shifting the winds at KACY and
possibly KMIV to southeasterly.

OUTLOOK...
Tuesday night through Thursday...Mainly VFR. Few showers psbl far
South Tuesday night.

Thursday through Saturday...Mainly VFR, except MVFR conditions in
scattered showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
The only significant hazard for the waters continues to the the
areas of dense fog. The dense fog advisory continues over night
for the coastal waters and the lower Delaware Bay. The moisture
enriched atmosphere and the chilly sea temps will provide the
favorable conditions for this sea fog. Conditions will improve
Tuesday once a cold front crosses the waters and drier air
arrives. Winds and seas should remain sub-sca thru the period.
Showers are expected tonight decreasing in coverage late.

OUTLOOK...
Tue night through Saturday...Sub-small craft advisory conditions
expected through the period, although a persistent and solid 3 to 4
sea on the ocean seems likely through much of the period. East winds
could get gusty on Wednesday and Thursday. Isolated showers are
possible across the southern waters on Tuesday night. No precip
expected Wednesday into Thursday. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible Friday and Saturday.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ431-450>455.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Kruzdlo
Near Term...Johnson/Meola/O`Hara
Short Term...O`Hara
Long Term...Drag/Kruzdlo/O`Hara
Aviation...Johnson/Kruzdlo/O`Hara
Marine...Johnson/Kruzdlo/O`Hara




000
FXUS61 KPHI 310152
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
952 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical moisture remained over eastern New Jersey and the Delmarva
Monday afternoon. This moisture will shift off the coast this
evening as a cold front approaches from the west. The cold front
will track through the region late Monday night into early Tuesday.
High pressure will follow for the middle of the week. A cold front,
attached to low pressure moving across eastern Canada, will slide
across the Mid Atlantic region on Friday or Saturday. The remainder
of the forecast period looks to be unsettled due to another
approaching low pressure system.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Not many changes with the 930 PM update. The band of showers that
has been over the shore all day is finally starting to full shift
off shore. A few showers have developed behind the main band
across south NJ, but those should be mostly light and likely won`t
last much past midnight. An additional line of showers and
thunderstorms was over the western half of the region, just ahead
of the cold front. This line is starting to fall apart as the
cooler outflow takes over. Thus, we should see decreasing chances
for rain through the overnight hours. PoPs were adjusted to match
current radar trends. Otherwise no major changes with this
update.

The cold front is still on track to slowly slide east over the
region through the overnight hours.

Despite lower dew points behind the front, fog should develop
across most areas tonight given the very wet ground. However,
given the drier air moving in, do not expect widespread dense fog
on land. Low tonight...mild with mid/upper 60s in most areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Weak high pressure will arrive across the area Tuesday. Skies will
be mostly sunny across most of the region with some cloudiness
across the Delmarva and extreme srn NJ. We will continue with slgt
chance or low chance pops across these areas...since some of the
low level moisture from Mondays system will not yet have exited
these areas. It will be a warm day with highs in the low/mid 80s
across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Overview...The period starts with a cold front exiting stage right
in the atlantic, with another weak cold front well to our north
situated west to east from the Great Lakes east to Maine. This front
will eventually lift north away from the region as surface high
pressure and mid-level ridging builds in. High pressure will be the
main story Wednesday through at least Thursday, maybe into Friday. A
cold front is forecast to cross the area on Friday or Saturday. For
the remainder of the weekend and into early next week, a deep trough
is forecast to settle over the east as strong ridging develops over
the Rockies.

Temperatures...For reference, normals for PHL are in the upper 70s
and upper 50s. For the period, temperatures will be near or above
normal. Depending on how deep and fast the east coast trof becomes
established, the end of the period could transition into the below
normal range.

Precipitation...Small POP showers have been been painted in the
grids for Tuesday night across the southern zones. Currently, dry
conditions are expected Wednesday into Thursday, but keep an eye
open over the ocean to see if any stratus and/or fog develops and
gets pushed onshore. Scattered thunderstorms are expected late in
the week with the cold front. Then the mid-level trof is forecast to
take over and provide the region with unsettled weather.

Winds...Winds will become northeast Tuesday night and go east on
Wednesday and then southeast before the frontal passage. Winds will
go northwest behind the late week cold front, then southwest as the
trof settles in. It could be a bit gusty on Wednesday and Thursday,
especially near the coast.

Impacts...The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Many TAF sites will start this evening VFR, but expect areas of
fog to develop across much of the region, reducing visibilities to
at least MVFR and possibly IFR (especially for locations that have
seen heavy rain over the last 24 hours such as KILG, KPHL, and
KPNE). The fog should continue through much of the night.
Visibilities should begin to improve between 10 and 15Z.

Winds will be southerly or southwesterly to begin the TAF period,
shifting to northwesterly by 12Z as a cold front moves through the
region. However, wind speeds through out the TAF period should be
near or below 10KT. There is a chance that a sea breeze could
develop tomorrow afternoon, shifting the winds at KACY and
possibly KMIV to southeasterly.

OUTLOOK...
Tuesday night through Thursday...Mainly VFR. Few showers psbl far
South Tuesday night.

Thursday through Saturday...Mainly VFR, except MVFR conditions in
scattered showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
The only significant hazard for the waters continues to the the
areas of dense fog. The dense fog advisory continues over night
for the coastal waters and the lower Delaware Bay. The moisture
enriched atmosphere and the chilly sea temps will provide the
favorable conditions for this sea fog. Conditions will improve
Tuesday once a cold front crosses the waters and drier air
arrives. Winds and seas should remain sub-sca thru the period.
Showers are expected tonight decreasing in coverage late.

OUTLOOK...
Tue night through Saturday...Sub-small craft advisory conditions
expected through the period, although a persistent and solid 3 to 4
sea on the ocean seems likely through much of the period. East winds
could get gusty on Wednesday and Thursday. Isolated showers are
possible across the southern waters on Tuesday night. No precip
expected Wednesday into Thursday. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible Friday and Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Most of the heaviest rain has ended, however we continue to
monitor for hydro concerns as even moderate rain over the areas
that had the heaviest rain earlier today could cause flooding
primarily in poor drainage areas. However, with the cold front
entering the western portions of our region, the flooding threat
will be decreasing through the overnight hours.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ431-450>455.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Kruzdlo
Near Term...Johnson/O`Hara
Short Term...O`Hara
Long Term...Drag/Kruzdlo/O`Hara
Aviation...Johnson/Kruzdlo/O`Hara
Marine...Johnson/Kruzdlo/O`Hara
Hydrology...Johnson




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 301948
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
348 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The remnants of Post Tropical Storm Bonnie will slowly slide
northeast along the Carolina coast through mid week. A cold front
then approaches from the west...crossing the area Friday into
Friday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Latest sfc analysis shows the remnant lo of Post-Tropical Storm
Bonnie centered over extreme ern SC...with a trof of lo pres over
the Mid Atlc. Moisture continues to stream nwrd this aftn/eveng
as the area sits in the right-entrance-region of an upr-level jet
streak. Moderate to heavy rain is psbl at times...so maintained
mention in the HWO. Altho many areas will just receive light
amounts...some areas may receive an additional inch of rain.
Forcing for ascent weakens tngt as the best moisture pulls
offshore...so pops decrease to slight chance-chance everywhere
ovrngt. Otws...cloudy skies will prevail with some breaks in the
clouds psbl over the Piedmont. Temps will bottom out to near
normal readings...lows in the the mid 60s most spots.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short term period will remain unsettled with frequent chances for
rain. Forecast is complicated by the weak remnant lo of Post-
Tropical Storm Bonnie sliding ne up the Carolina cst each day in
the period...with the Mid Atlc in a continued moist airmass
despite meager lift. For now...best chances of rain will
primarily be over srn areas. Chances for rain each period thru Thu
will be in the slight chance-chance range. Temps will be near
normal...with highs avgg in the upr 70s to mid 80s and lows
ranging thru the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Unsettled wx xpcd through most of the extended pd. Remnant lo pres
to be sloly kicked out well off the cst Thu ngt through Fri w/
approach of a cdfnt fm the nw and S/W aloft tracking fm the Great
Lakes/Oh Vly to the NE states. The fnt crosses the fa Fri aftn/eve
shras and psbl tstms...then stalls ovr the Carolinas Fri ngt through
Sat. The fnt is xpcd to be pulled back N by Sun as a deep trough
aloft dives SE through the Great Lakes/Oh Vly...resulting in
additional chcs for shras/tstms into Mon.

Highs Fri fm the u70s on the ern shore to the l-m80s elsw...then
inthe m-u70s at the cst and l80s inland Sat/Sun and Mon. Lows in the
60s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Showers persist across the region with every TAF site recording
rain at the onset of the 18z TAFs. Conditions generally MVFR, with
obs bouncing between scattered and broken around 700 to 1200 ft
AGL. This has made for quite a challenging TAF forecast. Based on
persistence and the air mass over the region, have continued with
the trend of MVFR/IFR conditions through the afternoon, with some
increased confidence for widespread IFR conditions overnight at
all TAF sites. The exception may be ORF where MVFR conditions are
favored. Regardless, expect poor aviation conditions overnight.
Showers begin to push toward the coast early this evening,
becoming more scattered across the southeast half of the forecast
area through the overnight period. While conditions favor stratus,
expect fog to develop mainly along the coast reducing visibilities
to less than 3 miles at times. Weak pressure gradient results in
light and variable winds overnight. Expect conditions to improve
by mid morning Tuesday with MVFR and VFR conditions returning to
the TAF sites.

Post tropical storm Bonnie lingers over the Carolinas through
Wednesday, resulting in ongoing unsettled weather conditions.
Periods of rain and MVFR and IFR conditions are expected through
Wednesday. A brief reprieve from the rain is forecast Wednesday
night and possibly Thursday. A cold front then approaches the area
of Friday, resulting in more showers and reduced visibilities and
ceilings.

&&

.MARINE...
No headlines necessary attm. Remnant lo pres along the Carolina
coasts through Wed then slowly tracks NE off the VA cst-Delmarva Thu
into Fri. A cdfnt approaches the wtrs fm the NW Fri...pushing E
and S of the wtrs Fri ngt...then stalling ovr the Carolinas on
Sat.

SE winds becoming more ENE tngt...then contg through Thu ngt.
Speeds rmng generally aob 15kt...though there may be a bit of an
incrs in speeds Wed into Thu as remnant lo pres tracks closer (to
the srn wtrs). Seas 3-4ft in persistent onshore swell...but may
build to 4-5 ft Wed into Thu eve as remnant lo pres tracks just
off the mdatlc coast during this timeframe. Waves 1-2 ft with up
to 3 ft possible at times in the mouth of Ches Bay due to the
onshore swell.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The monthly rainfall total at Richmond through Midnight has
reached 9.36", setting a new record for the month of May at RIC.
Additional rainfall is expected through tomorrow, which could
push the monthly total above 10". If this does occur, it would
only be the second occurrence of 10" or more of rain in a month
prior to July. The other occurrence was Jan 1937 (10.08").

     Top 6 wettest months of May at Richmond...

 1. 9.36" 2016 (Through Midnight EDT)
 2. 9.13" 1889
 3. 8.98" 1873
 4. 8.87" 1972
 5. 8.67" 1886
 6. 8.59" 2003

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...ALB
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KLWX 301905
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
305 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will enter the region from the west tonight and
stall near or just south of the area on Tuesday. Another cold front
will move in from the north Tuesday night and Wednesday, then also
stall out. A third cold front will push in from the west Thursday
night and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Weak cold front is currently analyzed to be located in western
Pennsylvania and West Virginia and slowly moving east. The
remnants of Bonnie are near the South Carolina coast and are
slowly moving northeast. A very weak trough accompanies the cold
front aloft. This trough has kept rain streaming northeast into
far southern Maryland through the day but elsewhere..drier air
from the west has pushed in.

Tonight, the passing front and trough should work to generate some
showers and thunderstorms in our western zones (the mountains) and
then push them eastward this evening towards the I-95 corridor.
However...instability is meager and forcing is not strong...so
think most of the activity will probably end up dying out before
reaching the metro area. There can still be some spotty home-grown
thundershowers...but overall not that bad of an end to the holiday
weekend.

Overnight...lingering moisture and light winds will likely to
combine to create patchy fog. Not sure how widespread or dense it
might be but some guidance suggests we could approach dense fog in
spots. Will need to monitor.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Moisture from Bonnie will linger not far to the south for the next
few days...but forcing will be weak. A backdoor front will try to
come southward Tuesday night and Wednesday which will try to
suppress the moisture further south and cool our area a bit.
Temperatures will be warmest Tuesday ahead of this front with some
sun...then drop a few degrees each Wednesday and Thursday. Lingering
moisture and some sun-fueled instability...not to mention
potential forcing of the stalling boundary itself...will still try
to get some spotty showers and thunderstorms going each of the
next few days...but coverage does not look high. More pop-up than
anything organized. Things get a little more interesting late
Thursday as the next front approaches but instability still looks
relatively meager. Highs will stay in the 80s with lows mostly in
the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A weak cold front, associated with surface low well to our north
over Canada, will move through the area during the day Friday
bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms to much of the
area.

Model divergence increases by next weekend, as long term guidance
differs with position/strength of mid and upper level trough digging
into the NE. Will maintain low-end pops for the possibility of
unsettled conditions next weekend into early next week, with best
shower and thunderstorm chances Sunday into Monday as cold front
moves through.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR at present. Spotty showers/t-storms likely to form this
afternoon and move east this eve with weak front. Could go briefly
MVFR or even IFR at any terminal but most likely MRB if anywhere.
Patchy fog is a concern tonight...again, MRB most likely to go
down to IFR but its possible at the other terminals as well.
Spotty shower/storms again the next few days but coverage looks
low.

Cold front moves through the area late Thursday into the
day Friday, with a scattered showers and thunderstorms expected
across much of the area.

Confidence in the forecast going into the weekend remains low as
upper level trough digs into the Northeast.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds below SCA thru the period outside of any
thunderstorms...though will need to watch possible surge behind
backdoor front Tuesday night into Wednesday. Storms may impact
waters over each of the next several days but odds are not great
after this evening.

Thunderstorm chances will be the main concern over the waters
Friday (and perhaps into next weekend).

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...RCM
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...MSE/RCM
MARINE...MSE/RCM




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301842
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
242 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal boundary will generate isolated to scattered
thunderstorms over the ridges early this evening. Dry and
seasonably warm weather can then be expected into mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A weak frontal boundary will complete a slide across the Upper
Ohio Region this evening with isolated, to scattered shower and
thunderstorms coverage over areas east and south of Pittsburgh.
Improved flow should inhibit any localized heavy rainfall issues.

Although the front will usher in slightly lower dew points, the
change in airmass is not decisive and overnight temperatures are
projected about 5 above the averages using consensus-short guidance.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Subsidence with that high is expected to maintain dry weather into
Wednesday with temperatures warming into the mid 80s again. Thereafter,
general model agreement is of a mid level trough and associated cold
front approaching Wednesday night and over the region Thursday.
Have generally persisted with precipitation probabilities, which
were gradually escalated on Wednesday night and into Thursday
despite some guidance indicating more rapid onset. Above average
temperatures are anticipated given the warm, moist advection in
advance of that feature, forecast for which was constructed via
tweaked superblend guidance.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Model guidance suggests that the front will lag in complete passage
through Friday; thus, chance pops were maintained. Despite some
upper level pattern differences by Saturday, model consensus
suggests a deepening trough over the eastern-CONUS/Great Lakes as
a ridge builds in the west. A series of shortwaves within flow are
progged to maintain shower chances through this period. Given the
uncertainty in timing of those disturbances, will keep pops and
temperatures at or below superblend guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Building high pressure will ensure general VFR through the period
with exceptions for isolated eve convection near LBE and MGW and
peri-dawn fog.

.OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Restrictions are likely with a late week cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

15

$$




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 301753
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
153 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Post Tropical Storm Bonnie will linger along the South Carolina
coast this afternoon, and will slowly track northeast along the
coastal Carolinas while weakening further through the middle of
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Richmond has reached 9.36" of rainfall for the month of May as of
Midnight EDT, setting a new record for the month. See the climate
section below for more details.

The latest analysis still indicates Post-Tropical Storm Bonnie
located just inland of Charleston SC. Please continue to refer to
discussions/forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center for
the track of Bonnie.

Have followed closely to the last few runs of HRRR, which seems to
have a good handle w/ongoing pcpn. Noting area of showers
coincident with cooling cloud tops redeveloping over e NC, along
coastal trough axis, which emanates from the remnant low along
the SC coast. CAMs continue to show that these showers will
continue to lift NNW, enhanced by upper divergence provided by
RRQ of upper jet.

Will go with likely to categorical POPS over coastal sections.
Additional periods of locally heavy rain are likely along the
coast and just inland (mainly e of i-95). Meanwhile, pops taper
back to high end chc 40-50 pop out west in the piedmont in
expectation of some sct showers, owing to weak subsidence/low
level drying advecting in from the west. QPF amounts through this
evening to avg 1-2" along the coast, w/lesser amounts farther
inland. Highs today once again variable and clouds/pcpn dependent,
but should be held in the mid-upper 70s along the coast/just
inland, reaching the lower 80s well inland with lesser pcpn
expected.

Additional showers expected tonight, with Bonnie`s remnants
lifting along the Carolina coast. Areal coverage of showers once
again diminishes late, becoming focused along the coastal trough
over the eastern third of the area. Once again mild/humid with
lows in the 60s to near 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TD Bonnie (or more likely the remnant low) will continue to very
slowly lift NE along the NC coast Tue/Wed. Continued humid, though
dew pts lower slightly into the mid 60s by Tue. Highs avg in the
upper 70s/lower 80s both Tue-Wed with lows in the lower 60s NW to
the upper 60s SE. Above climo POPS of 40-50% SE and 20-30% NW
persist Mon night-Wed.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Model consensus and NHC forecast centers Tropical Depression Bonnie
(or the remnant low) just off the Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday. An
upstream trough and associated cold front approaches from the west.
Will keep mention of chance POPs along the coast, as well the
Piedmont as moisture increases from the west. Expect subsidence over
central VA and hopes for dry conditions, but will keep slight chance
POPs. Expect increasing clouds Thursday night as the approaching
trough finally kicks off the coast in advance of the approaching
upstream trough. Will keep mention of slight chance POPs, but
overall dry conditions expected. The front drops into the forecast
area Friday with increasing chances for showers and
afternoon/evening thunderstorms. Latest guidance now in good
agreement with cutting off mid level energy over the Southern
Plains, with the largest height falls over New England. Sensible
weather impacts will be a quicker departure of the front off the
coast Friday night into Saturday than previously forecast. Will keep
mention of chance POPs Saturday, will drying conditions into
Saturday night. Only a slight chance POP across the southeast
forecast area for Sunday as the front stalls over the Carolinas in
westerly flow aloft. Sky generally partly cloudy Sunday.

Highs in the low to mid 80`s Thursday and Friday cool only a few
degrees into the upper 70`s to low 80`s Saturday and Sunday. Lows
in the 60`s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Showers persist across the region with every TAF site recording
rain at the onset of the 18z TAFs. Conditions generally MVFR, with
obs bouncing between scattered and broken around 700 to 1200 ft
AGL. This has made for quite a challenging TAF forecast. Based on
persistence and the air mass over the region, have continued with
the trend of MVFR/IFR conditions through the afternoon, with some
increased confidence for widespread IFR conditions overnight at
all TAF sites. The exception may be ORF where MVFR conditions are
favored. Regardless, expect poor aviation conditions overnight.
Showers begin to push toward the coast early this evening,
becoming more scattered across the southeast half of the forecast
area through the overnight period. While conditions favor stratus,
expect fog to develop mainly along the coast reducing visibilities
to less than 3 miles at times. Weak pressure gradient results in
light and variable winds overnight. Expect conditions to improve
by mid morning Tuesday with MVFR and VFR conditions returning to
the TAF sites.

Post tropical storm Bonnie lingers over the Carolinas through
Wednesday, resulting in ongoing unsettled weather conditions.
Periods of rain and MVFR and IFR conditions are expected through
Wednesday. A brief reprieve from the rain is forecast Wednesday
night and possibly Thursday. A cold front then approaches the area
of Friday, resulting in more showers and reduced visibilities and
ceilings.

&&

.MARINE...
Tropical Depression Bonnie meanders along the Carolina coasts
today through Tue night and then slowly tracks ne twd the Mid
Atlantic on Wed...finally locating just off the coast Wed
night. The remnants of Bonnie are expected to continue tracking
ne Thu...getting pushed out to sea by an approaching cold front,
which should cross the region on Fri.

Ongoing shower activity will remain focused over the waters
today/tonight with thunderstorms possible this aftn/evening.
SE winds today...becoming more ne-e late tonight through Thu.
Speeds generally aob 15kt. Seas 3-4ft in persistent onshore
swell, but may build to 4-5ft Wed into Thu evening as the
remnants of TD Bonnie track just off the Mid Atlantic coast
during this timeframe. Waves 1-2ft with up to 3ft possible at
times in the mouth of Ches Bay due to the onshore swell. A cold
front approaches the region on Thu...bringing a brief period of
dry conditions and slightly more breezy winds to the waters.
This front is expected to cross the waters late Fri night into
Sat.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The monthly rainfall total at Richmond through Midnight has
reached 9.36", setting a new record for the month of May at RIC.
Additional rainfall is expected today and tomorrow, which could
push the monthly total above 10". If this does occur, it would
only be the second occurrence of 10" or more of rain in a month
prior to July. The other occurrence was Jan 1937 (10.08").

     Top 6 wettest months of May at Richmond...

 1. 9.36" 2016 (Through Midnight EDT)
 2. 9.13" 1889
 3. 8.98" 1873
 4. 8.87" 1972
 5. 8.67" 1886
 6. 8.59" 2003

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS/MAM
NEAR TERM...MAS/MAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...BMD
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 301210
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
810 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Depression Bonnie will linger along the South Carolina
coast this morning, and will slowly track northeast along the
coastal Carolina while weakening further through the middle of
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Richmond has reached 9.36" of rainfall for the month of May as of
Midnight EDT, setting a new record for the month. See the climate
section below for more details.

The latest analysis still indicates TD Bonnie located just inland
of Charleston SC. Please continue to refer to discussions/forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center for the track on TD
Bonnie.

Have followed closely to the last few runs of HRRR, which seems to
have a good handle w/ongoing pcpn. Noting area of showers
coincident with cooling cloud tops redeveloping over e NC, along
coastal trough axis, which emanates from the remnant low along
the SC coast. CAMs continue to show that these showers will
continue to lift NNW along the coast this morning, eventually
expanding in areal coverage after 12z this morning, enhanced by
upper divergence provided by RRQ of upper jet.

Will go with likely to categorical POPS over coastal sections
this morning. Additional periods of locally heavy rain are likely
this morning along the coast and just inland (mainly e of i-95).
Meanwhile, pops taper back to high end chc 40-50 pop out west in
the piedmont in expectation of some sct showers, owing to weak
subsidence/low level drying advecting in from the west. QPF
amounts through this evening to avg 1-2" along the coast, w/lesser
amounts farther inland. Highs today once again variable and
clouds/pcpn dependent, but should be held in the mid-upper 70s
along the coast/just inland, reaching the lower 80s well inland
with lesser pcpn expected.

Additional showers expected tonight, with TD Bonnie`s remnants
lifting along the Carolina coast tonight. Areal coverage of
showers once again diminishes late, becoming focused along the
coastal trough over the eastern third of the area. Once again
mild/humid with lows in the 60s to near 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TD Bonnie (or more likely the remnant low) will continue to very
slowly lift NE along the NC coast Tue/Wed. Continued humid, though
dew pts lower slightly into the mid 60s by Tue. Highs avg in the
upper 70s/lower 80s both Tue-Wed with lows in the lower 60s NW to
the upper 60s SE. Above climo POPS of 40-50% SE and 20-30% NW
persist Mon night-Wed.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Model consensus and NHC forecast centers Tropical Depression Bonnie
(or the remnant low) just off the Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday. An
upstream trough and associated cold front approaches from the west.
Will keep mention of chance POPs along the coast, as well the
Piedmont as moisture increases from the west. Expect subsidence over
central VA and hopes for dry conditions, but will keep slight chance
POPs. Expect increasing clouds Thursday night as the approaching
trough finally kicks off the coast in advance of the approaching
upstream trough. Will keep mention of slight chance POPs, but
overall dry conditions expected. The front drops into the forecast
area Friday with increasing chances for showers and
afternoon/evening thunderstorms. Latest guidance now in good
agreement with cutting off mid level energy over the Southern
Plains, with the largest height falls over New England. Sensible
weather impacts will be a quicker departure of the front off the
coast Friday night into Saturday than previously forecast. Will keep
mention of chance POPs Saturday, will drying conditions into
Saturday night. Only a slight chance POP across the southeast
forecast area for Sunday as the front stalls over the Carolinas in
westerly flow aloft. Sky generally partly cloudy Sunday.

Highs in the low to mid 80`s Thursday and Friday cool only a few
degrees into the upper 70`s to low 80`s Saturday and Sunday. Lows
in the 60`s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Tropical Depression Bonnie continues to result in poor aviation
conditions across the region. Scattered to numerous showers
persist along the coast with low stratus and fog from the Bay to
the Piedmont. Some heavier showers are producing IFR visibilities. Expect
MVFR/IFR conditions to persist through mid-morning with winds at
or below 10 kt. Guidance remains rather pessimistic through the
afternoon, with IFR for all. However, BUFR soundings and late May
climatology indicate a mild improvement to MVFR (decks 1-2k ft
AGL) late morning through the afternoon. Scattered to numerous
showers expected all TAF sites through mid to late afternoon
before pushing off the coast late today. Winds remain at or below
10 kt. Another round of IFR conditions is expected tonight.

Bonnie (or the remnant low) slowly lifts northward along/near the
Carolina coasts through mid-week, resulting in additional chances
for showers and MVFR/IFR conditions. A cold front approaches the
region Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Tropical Depression Bonnie meanders along the Carolina coasts
today through Tue night and then slowly tracks ne twd the Mid
Atlantic on Wed...finally locating just off the coast Wed
night. The remnants of Bonnie are expected to continue tracking
ne Thu...getting pushed out to sea by an approaching cold front,
which should cross the region on Fri.

Ongoing shower activity will remain focused over the waters
today/tonight with thunderstorms possible this aftn/evening.
SE winds today...becoming more ne-e late tonight through Thu.
Speeds generally aob 15kt. Seas 3-4ft in persistent onshore
swell, but may build to 4-5ft Wed into Thu evening as the
remnants of TD Bonnie track just off the Mid Atlantic coast
during this timeframe. Waves 1-2ft with up to 3ft possible at
times in the mouth of Ches Bay due to the onshore swell. A cold
front approaches the region on Thu...bringing a brief period of
dry conditions and slightly more breezy winds to the waters.
This front is expected to cross the waters late Fri night into
Sat.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The monthly rainfall total at Richmond through Midnight has
reached 9.36", setting a new record for the month of May at RIC.
Additional rainfall is expected today and tomorrow, which could
push the monthly total above 10". If this does occur, it would
only be the second occurrence of 10" or more of rain in a month
prior to July. The other occurrence was Jan 1937 (10.08").

     Top 6 wettest months of May at Richmond...

 1. 9.36" 2016 (Through Midnight EDT)
 2. 9.13" 1889
 3. 8.98" 1873
 4. 8.87" 1972
 5. 8.67" 1886
 6. 8.59" 2003

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...BMD
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301135
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
735 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal boundary may generate scattered thunderstorms over
the ridges this afternoon. Otherwise dry and seasonably warm
weather can be expected into mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
No major changes were needed for the post dawn update.

A weak frontal boundary will slide across the Upper Ohio Region
today and slight to chance precipitation probabilities were
maintained for that passage.

The front will usher in slightly lower dew points with insolation
supporting max temperatures about 5 degrees above average. A
clear night with average low temperature is forecast with building
high pressure tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Subsidence with that high is expected to maintain dry weather into
Wednesday with temperatures warming into the mid 80s again.
Thereafter, general model agreement is of a mid level trough and
associated cold front approaching late Wednesday night and
crossing the region Thursday. Precipitation probabilities were
gradually escalated for that occurrence and accompanied by an
above average temperature forecast given the warm, moist advection
in advance of that feature.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Model guidance suggests that the front will lag in complete passage
through Friday; thus, chance pops were maintained. Despite some
upper level pattern differences by Saturday, model consensus
suggests a deepening trough over the eastern-CONUS/Great Lakes as
a ridge builds in the west. A series of shortwaves within flow are
progged to maintain shower chances through this period. Given the
uncertainty in timing of those disturbances, will keep pops and
temperatures at or below superblend guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Building high pressure will ensure general vfr with exceptions for
peri-dawn fog, and some scattered showers and storms in vicinity
of LBE and MGW as a weak front completes passage this afternoon.

.OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Restrictions are likely with a late week cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
15




000
FXUS61 KPHI 301058
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
658 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical moisture will continue to track northward across our area
today. A cold front will then cross the area Tuesday followed by
high pressure for the middle of the week. A cold front, attached
to low pressure moving across eastern Canada, will slide across
the Mid Atlantic region early next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to move northward
through the region early this morning. Rainfall amounts overnight
have generally been around 1 to 2 inches. However, with heavy rain
still moving through, locally higher amounts remain possible. For
more information on any flood threat or rainfall amounts, please
see our PNS and FLS products.

Tropical Depression Bonnie continues to weaken as it moves slowly
along the South Carolina coast early this morning. Tropical
moisture associated with Bonnie continues to push northward
towards our area. As Bonnie weakens and moves east, the moisture
plume that has been feeding into our area will also start to push
east.

While we will still have showers and some isolated thunderstorms
around through the day today, the latest model guidance shows that
the best chances will remain along I-95 and east with out western
areas starting to dry out. While it won`t be a steady and constant
rain all day long, there will extensive cloud cover across the
region and in areas where it does rain or thunderstorms develop,
we could still see some heavy rain fall.

Fog continues to remain a concern along the coast. While the rain
moving through will eventually help to dissipate the fog, we will
also need the winds to turn more to the west and moving offshore.
Fog should start to clear out by late morning/early afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
For the most part, the rain should be ending across the region.
Areas to the east of I-95 may still see some showers into the
evening but the threat of thunder looks like it will have ended.

With Bonnie not moving and remaining to our south, we likely won`t
fully clear out and shower chances will continue across out
southern and eastern areas overnight. Expect showers to end by
late tonight/early Tuesday. Fog may once again form across the
region overnight.

Cloud cover will remain across the region with some possible
clearing over our northwestern areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Due to ongoing hydro operations, the long term portion of the forecast
was not updated on this mid shift. We apologize but need to keep short
term warning ops our highest priority. The long term forecast (day
2-8) will be updated in the normal afternoon update cycle. Meanwhile
all our statements are up to date as of 6 am, including significant
tropical overnight rains, which led to spotty flooding. See the
climate section for rainfall ranking.



High pressure will build in from the north Tuesday and remain into
Wednesday night. Dry weather is expected much of the time with
above normal temperatures in most areas. Highs both days will be in
the low/mid 80s in most areas with some 70s for highs along the
shore and the higher elevations well to the north. A few scattered
showers may creep into the Delmarva areas later Wed as the edge of
moisture associated with what will be left of Tropical Depression
Bonnie will be moving south/east of the area. The pops across srn
Delaware at these times will only be 20-25 pct at most.

The tropical moisture and an advancing h5 trough will be setting up
across our area towards the end of next week. This will bring some
unsettled conditions with typical late spring/early summer
showers/tstms to the area. Pops will be mostly in the chc range for
now with details yet to be specific with regards to timing and
locations. Temperatures during this period will be close to normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...MVFR/IFR conditions at the terminals this morning. Showers
and isolated thunderstorms have largely pushed north of the
region. Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible
through this afternoon with the best chances towards KMIV and
KACY. Due to the low confidence on coverage of thunderstorms, we
have left the mention out of the tafs at this time.

Conditions is expected to improve to VFR by the afternoon,
especially at KRDG and KABE. However, KMIV and KACY are expected
to retain lower conditions through tonight.

Fog/visibility restrictions are expected this evening as winds
become light and variable at the terminals.

OUTLOOK...
Tue-Wed night...Mostly VFR. Few showers psbl far South Wed. Thu-
Fri...Mostly vfr but lower conditions psbl in sct showers/tstms.

&&

.MARINE...
We have extended the time for the Dense Fog Advisory until 2 pm
today. We have also added in the remaining zones on the ocean,
also in effect until 2 pm. With the water temperatures in the
upper 50s to lower 60s and dewpoints in the 70s, fog is expected
to continue across the waters through this afternoon.

South winds remain light across the waters with gusts up to 25
knots. Winds will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria
through today. Seas will start to build but are expected to remain
below 5 feet. The far eastern portions of our ocean zones may near
5 feet later today but are expected to remain below.

OUTLOOK...
Sub-sca conditions expected most of the period. Seas on the ocean may
reach close to 5 ft Thu night...but low confid in this attm. Sct
tstms with higher winds/seas possible Fri.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The primary Sunday night rains have occurred and our statements
are up to date as of 6 AM. This includes local storm reports and
public information statements regarding the rainfall amts which
have averaged around 1 to 2 inches I-95 corridor westward;  but
we think with spotty 3+ in the NJ portion of the corridor as well
as the Poconos.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Wilmington`s monthly rainfall now is around 7.3 inches which
makes this the 4th wettest month of May in the period of record
there.

Philadelphia`s monthly rainfall now is around 6.65 inches, which
ranks this the 10th wettest month of May on record.

ACY only needed an inch of rain these last 2 days of the month to
rank as a top 10 wettest month of May.

Additionally, the 1.06 inch total so far today at Wilmington, as
of 6 am, is just shy of the daily record (1.10 in 1983). Daily
records began in 1894.


Monday

ACY 3.07 1984   por 1874
PHL 1.74 1908   por 1872
ILG 1.10 1983   por 1894
ABE 1.68 1968   por 1922
TTN 1.62 1912   por 1865
GED 2.04 1984   por 1948
RDG 2.92 1904   por 1869 (highly unlikely to approach a record
                          daily rainfall)
MPO 1.86 1990 POR 1901

Finally, we are having to estimate rainfall at Mount Pocono due
to a problem with the sensor.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Gorse/Meola/O`Hara
Near Term...Meola
Short Term...Meola
Long Term...Drag/O`Hara
Aviation...Meola/O`Hara
Marine...Meola/O`Hara
Hydrology...
Climate...




000
FXUS61 KLWX 300719
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
319 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

Tropical Depression Bonnie remains near the South Carolina coast.
This will weaken as it tracks northeast along the coastline. High
pressure will build across the northeastern United States during
midweek. A cold front will approach the east coast Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

Rain is exiting Lower Southern MD. Current round now tracking
onto the Eastern Shore. Not a whole lot left to TD Bonnie aside
from a stream of moisture tracking north along the coast. This
moisture should keep Mid Atlantic in extensive cloud cover with
chances for showers...but the best chances will remain in the I-95
corridor and east. Highs should be a degree or two lower than
yesterday - low 80s except mid 80s in the cities.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

As there is no upper level steering flow to send Bonnie on its way
the low will remain to our southeast through Wednesday. This means
that the best chances for showers in the coming days will be in
the eastern quarter of the forecast area. Believe clouds will lessen each
day...especially west of the Blue Ridge as Bonnie loses its
tropical characteristics.

As we enter the beginning of meteorological summer temperatures
will start the season in the moderate range with highs in the
lower 80s. Lows will generally be in the lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

A backdoor cold front will weaken over the area Thursday through
Thursday night...and this may lead to a few showers and
thunderstorms. Another cold front will pass through from the west on
Friday...and this may lead to more showers and thunderstorms.

An upper-level trough will develop over the area during the weekend.
There is still some uncertainty as to how much moisture will be
around since guidance differs on the strength of the cold front that
moves through Friday. Will leave the chance for a few showers and
thunderstorms...but if the front is stronger then there should be
enough dry air advection behind the boundary for dry conditions
during the weekend. However...if the boundary is weak then moisture
will hang around...elevating the chance for convection. A stronger
cold front may impact the area early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Although there will be extensive cloud cover the majority of the
time ceilings will be 030 or better. Showers today and Tuesday
could cause periodic lowering into MVFR range. Best chance for
that will be at DCA..BWI..and MTN. The remnant moisture from TS
Bonnie will be very slow to leave the area so clouds can be
expected Wednedsay although at VFR levels.

A backdoor cold front will weaken over the area Thursday. A few
showers and thunderstorms are possible along with low clouds. The
best chance for low clouds will be during the morning hours and the
best chance for convection will be in the afternoon and evening.

The backdoor boundary will hang around Thursday night. More low
clouds are possible. Another cold front will pass through from the
west Friday...bringing a chance for more thunderstorms. Weak high
pressure may build in behind the front for Saturday...but an upper-
level trough will build overhead as well. Therefore...confidence in
the forecast for Saturday remains low.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds to remain below SCA values today thorugh Wednesday. Main
threat to the waters today will be showers.

A backdoor boundary will remain near the waters Thursday through
Thursday night before a cold front from the west passes through
Friday. Weak high pressure may build in behind the front for
Saturday. The gradient should be weak enough for winds to remain
below sca criteria during most of this period. However...a few
showers and thunderstorms are possible...especially Thursday and
Friday during the afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/BJL




000
FXUS61 KPHI 300455
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1255 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical moisture will continue to track northward across our area
tonight through Monday. A cold front will then cross the area
Tuesday followed by high pressure for the middle of the week. A cold
front, attached to low pressure moving across eastern Canada, will
slide across the Mid Atlantic region early next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to move northward
through the region tonight. Some heavy rain across the region has
already produced 1-1.5 inches in a very short time (we had 1.33
here at the office) and as a result, some localized flooding may
have occurred. Flood statements have been issued and will remain
in effect until the heavy rain threat has passed.

Model guidance continues to show an area of heavy showers possible
through the morning, mainly along and west of the I-95 corridor.

Some fog may persist for awhile mostly along the coast of New
Jersey given higher dew points advecting over the cooler ocean
water. Earlier beach cams showed fog right on the coast in some
areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
With the slower timing, it now appears that there will be more
precip on Monday, than earlier fcst. Showers and some thunder now
look to continue for a good portion of the day, especially for srn
and ern areas. Nrn and wrn areas cud see precip end durg the aftn,
with srn and ern sections most likely holding onto rain thru at
least sunset.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The remaining showers from the back edge of the system affecting the
area during the short term will be moving offshore Monday evening.
Pops will then decrease below slight chc by dawn Tuesday. Except for
some fog overnight...fair weather is expected. Low temperatures will
be in the low to mid 60s.

High pressure will build in from the north Tuesday and remain into
Wednesday night. Dry weather is expected much of the time with
above normal temperatures in most areas. Highs both days will be in
the low/mid 80s in most areas with some 70s for highs along the
shore and the higher elevations well to the north. A few scattered
showers may creep into the Delmarva areas later Wed as the edge of
moisture associated with what will be left of Tropical Depression
Bonnie will be moving south/east of the area. The pops across srn
Delaware at these times will only be 20-25 pct at most.

The tropical moisture and an advancing h5 trough will be setting up
across our area towards the end of next week. This will bring some
unsettled conditions with typical late spring/early summer
showers/tstms to the area. Pops will be mostly in the chc range for
now with details yet to be specific with regards to timing and
locations. Temperatures during this period will be close to normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of Tonight...VFR ceilings lowering to MVFR/IFR through 06z
from south to north. This timing may be determined on the
intensity of the showers. The visibility will lower to MVFR and
IFR at times especially during heavier showers. Some thunder
is possible overnight, however the areal coverage looks low and
therefore it was not included in the TAFs. Southerly winds mainly less
than 10 knots, becoming light and variable at some terminals.

Monday...MVFR/IFR conditions in the morning along with times of
heavy showers and some thunder, then the main area of
showers/thunder shift toward the coast in the afternoon. The
lower conditions last the longest at KACY to KMIV, with possible
improvement in the afternoon to VFR mostly at KABE and KRDG.
South to southwest winds mostly in the 5-10 knot range.

OUTLOOK...
Monday night...Showers end from w to E, VFR conditions return.
    Patchy fog possible late however.
Tue-Wed night...Mostly VFR. Few showers psbl far South Wed.
Thu- Fri...Mostly vfr but lower conditions psbl in sct
    showers/tstms.

&&

.MARINE...
The earlier visible satellite images along with beach cams
indicate that fog is persistent over the NJ coastal waters
especially. This looks to continue for awhile given much higher
dew points advecting northward over the cooler waters, therefore
a Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect through tonight for the NJ
coastal water zones.

The winds are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory
criteria through Monday. Seas are expected to build some and
could reach near 5 feet on the southern waters Monday. Due to
confidence being lower, wind below criteria and WaveWatch
possibly being overdone, will not issue a Small Craft Advisory at
this time.

OUTLOOK...
Sub-sca conditions expected most of the period. Seas on the ocean may
reach close to 5 ft Thu night...but low confid in this attm. Sct
tstms with higher winds/seas possible Fri.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Locally heavy rain is expected through the night and Monday which
may result in localized flooding. This is due to an influx of
tropical moisture from Tropical Depression Bonnie, which increases
the PWATs to near 2 inches. Depending on where the heavier showers
and some t-storms set up, isolated locations may possibly see 3
inches of rain. The area of heaviest rain may set up near and just
west of I-95. While the threat of localized flooding is there,
the areal extent is more uncertain and therefore we held off on a
flash flood watch at this time.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Daily record rainfalls that have a chance of exceedance, if heavy
showers can persist for 1 to 2 hours. Note, splitting amounts
between two days lowers the chance of a single day record event
occurrence.

There is a good chance several long term climate sites will increase
to a top 10 ranking for the month of May in our CWA.  PHL ACY AND ILG
only need an inch of rain these last 3 days of the month to rank
as a top 10 wettest month of May.

Monday

ACY 3.07 1984   por 1874
PHL 1.74 1908   por 1872
ILG 1.10 1983   por 1894
ABE 1.68 1968   por 1922
TTN 1.62 1912   por 1865
GED 2.04 1984   por 1948
RDG 2.92 1904   por 1869 (highly unlikely to approach a record
                          daily rainfall)
MPO 1.86 1990 POR 1901

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ450>453.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Gorse/O`Hara
Near Term...Gorse/Meola
Short Term...Nierenberg
Long Term...O`Hara
Aviation...Gorse/O`Hara
Marine...Gorse/Nierenberg/O`Hara
Hydrology...
Climate...




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