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000
FXUS61 KPHI 270945 AAA
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
545 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE EAST COAST REMAINS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ITSELF
OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
PARK OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY. THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL BE
POSITIONED IN BETWEEN THIS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AND AN APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE WILL BACK AND STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AS THE
PRESSURE/GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS
TIGHTENS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE SENSIBLE WX TODAY COMPARED TO RECENT
DAYS WILL BE THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70F THIS AFTERNOON.

THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A DIRECT RESULT OF THE THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND
STRONG DIABATIC HEATING. MEAN MLCAPE VALUES FROM BOTH THE 00Z
NCAR/MMM HI-RES ENSEMBLES AND 03Z SREF ARE AROUND 1500 J/KG FOR
OUR INLAND AREAS. WHILE FORECAST 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 20-25 KT
WILL BE MODEST, A 35-40 KT JET AT 500 MB WILL ENHANCE SHEAR
PROFILES IN THE 0-5 KM LAYER LATE IN THE DAY. THE MAIN QUESTION
LEADING UP TO TODAY WAS WHETHER THERE WAS GOING TO BE A LIFTING
MECHANISM TO INITIATE CONVECTION. IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE
SOME FORCING. THE HIRES GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT,
FOCUSING THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A LEE SURFACE
TROUGH TO OUR WEST DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A BROKEN LINE OF
STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO EASTERN PA DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON WITH ADDED UPPER FORCING BROUGHT TO YOU BY AN
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. POPS ARE HIGHEST (LIKELY)
WEST OF THE PHILLY METRO WHERE THE ARRIVAL OF THE LINE SHOULD
COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING. OVERALL, THE FORECAST ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORTS A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WIND GUSTS.
THE LATEST D1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC HAS PLACED AREAS ALONG
AND WEST OF I-95 IN A SLIGHT RISK THIS AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH FORECAST 925/850 MB TEMPS ARE AROUND 1C HIGHER TODAY THAN
WHAT WAS OBSERVED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
TO ALSO BE HIGHER TODAY (ESPECIALLY INLAND). THE MOST LIKELY
OUTCOME IS MAX TEMPS TODAY THAT ARE VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
TWO DAYS. OVERALL, THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TEMPS ARE ON THE HIGHER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE AFTER ACCOUNTING FOR A PERSISTENT COOL BIAS SEEN
IN THE MODELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
LATEST HI-RES MODEL SIMULATIONS SHOW A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER EASTERN PA THAT CROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AROUND SUNSET
AND DISSIPATE BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME SEPARATED FROM THE CONVERGENCE/SOURCE OF LIFT NEAR THE
LEE TROUGH AND INSTABILITY WILL WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING, RESULTING IN A GENERALLY WEAKENING TREND AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD. HOWEVER, THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS EARLY. POPS DECREASE SHARPLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACCORDINGLY.

CLOUD COVER AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD TONIGHT.
FORECAST MIN TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. IF WE
ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT, WE MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON THURSDAY, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A SHORT WAVE
ALOFT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS WELL. WITH AN
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE QPF
AMOUNTS ARE NOT HIGH, 0.10-0.25 INCHES, PW VALUES ARE NEAR 1.5
INCHES, SO IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WITH A LACK OF
STRONG SHEAR, THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW, ALTHOUGH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN.

ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE ATLANTIC, WITH OUR AREA ON THE WESTERN
EDGE. SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL, WHICH
SHOULD HELP KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY DRY INTO FRIDAY. WITH RETURN
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA, INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN AREAS. THIS DAYTIME INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS.

THE RIDGING ALOFT PUSHES EASTWARD SLIGHTLY SATURDAY, WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING, ALLOWING FOR A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY. WITH DAYTIME
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA, AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF REGARDING THIS FRONT. THE
GFS HAS THE FRONT AND ITS PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF HAS THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WE`LL CONTINUE WITH ENHANCED POPS DURING THE
TIME PERIOD, GENERALLY CENTERED AROUND SUNDAY AND WILL BE ABLE TO
BETTER FINE TUNE TIMING AS MODELS COME TO AN AGREEMENT. PW VALUES
INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES, SO THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE TIME PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH AND LIKELY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. AGAIN, THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE
GFS KEEPS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA, KEEPING MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF STARTS TO LIFT
THE FRONT BACK NORTH TOWARD THE AREA, BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER CHANCES. WE`LL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY,
BECAUSE THE GFS HAS DOES HAVE A FEW SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES
FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA. SO THIS COULD STILL PRODUCE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LOW CLOUDS WITH CIGS AROUND 1500 FT THAT INITIALLY DEVELOPED OVER
THE DELMARVA HAS EXPANDED NORTHWARD INTO THE I-95 TERMINALS EARLY
THIS MORNING. A TEMPO GROUP WAS KEPT WITH THE 06Z TAFS FOR ALL
THE TERMINALS FOR A 4-HR PERIOD EARLY THIS MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR MID MORNING.

EXPECT SHRA AND TSRA TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN PA THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT A TSRA PROB30 GROUP IN THE
06Z FOR RDG AND ABE AND ADDED IT TO THE 09Z PHL TAF FOR THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. FARTHER EAST, THERE IS HIGHER UNCERTAINTY IF
STORMS WILL BE MAINTAINED BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE COASTAL PLAIN SO
NO MENTION OF TSRA AT THIS TIME. STORMS UNLIKELY TO REACH ACY THIS
EVENING.

S-SW WINDS 5-10 KT THIS MORNING INCREASE TO 10-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY VFR. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY LOCALLY
REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS.

FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WESTERN TAFS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY, THEN LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR DURING
THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY
LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20
KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WAS CANCELLED FOR THIS MORNING AS WINDS AND SEAS HAVE FALLEN TO
BELOW SCA LEVELS. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. EXPECT GUSTS TO 25 KT, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. SEAS WILL
RESPOND TO THE STRENGTHENING WINDS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO NEAR 5 FT. ACCORDINGLY, THE SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
BASED ON IN HOUSE REGRESSION GUIDANCE, HAVE INCLUDED A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY FOR THE NJ BEACHES UNDER A BREEZY
SOUTH WIND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOP 10 WARMEST MAY WILL OCCUR IN LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

THE FIRST 25 DAYS OF MAY IN OUR FORECAST AREA WERE AVERAGING
ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

RUNNING THE NUMBERS FROM THE FCST THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH WE
FIND THE FOLLOWING.

FOR PHILADELPHIA...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1874.
PROJECTING A MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 69 TO 70 RISING FROM
THE CURRENT VALUE OF 67.8, AT LEAST 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
HEADING FOR MOST LIKELY THE THIRD WARMEST MAY ON RECORD. WARMEST
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN MAY ON RECORD WAS 70.8 IN 1991. THEN 69.2
2004 AND 68.2 IN 2012.

FOR ALLENTOWN...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1922. THE MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IS CURRENTLY 63.9 DEGREES. IT IS LIKELY TO
INCREASE BY A DEGREE OR TWO LATER THIS WEEK, LEADING TO A TOP 10
WARMEST MAY THIS YEAR AT ALLENTOWN. THE WARMEST AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE IN MAY WAS 67.2 BACK IN 1991.

FOR WILMINGTON.... THE MONTH OF MAY IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE
TOP 5- 10 WARMEST. THE CURRENT MONTHLY TEMPERATURE IS 65.8 DEGREES
AND SHOULD RISE A DEGREE OR TWO BY MONTHS END. THE WARMEST MAY WAS
IN 1896 WHERE THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 70.1 DEGREES. IN 1991
THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 69.1 DEGREES.

FOR ATLANTIC CITY... THE MONTH IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE TOP
THREE WARMEST MAYS. CURRENTLY, THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE
MONTH IS 64.5 DEGREES AND IS LIKELY TO RISE A DEGREE TOR TWO BY
MONTHS END. THE WARMEST MAY WAS BACK IN 2004 WHERE THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE REACHED 66.9 DEGREES. IN 1991 THE MONTHLY AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE WAS 66 DEGREES. BOTH 2011 AND 2012 SAW A MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 65 DEGREES.

NORMAL FIRST DATE OF 90 OR HIGHER.

PHILADELPHIA MAY 29 ALLENTOWN MAY 30 WILMINGTON JUNE 4 ATLANTIC
CITY JUNE 11.

*************************************************************

HERE IS OUR ANNUAL LOOK AS TO HOW HOT, HOT, HOT THE SUMMER WILL
BE BASED ON PAST PERFORMANCES.

A FULL FLEDGED EL NINO IS UNDERWAY IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. ALL
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS KEEP IT GOING, THE DIFFERENCES
THAT EXIST ARE TO ITS STRENGTH THROUGH THIS UPCOMING SUMMER. THE
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS ARE AVERAGING A MODERATE EL NINO
FOR THE COMBINED SUMMER MONTHS. SOME MODELS, INCLUDING THE CFS2
AND ECMWF ARE PREDICTING A STRONG EL NINO. IN THE CPC MONITORING
EL NINO ERA STARTING SINCE 1950, THE HIGHEST (WARMEST) SUMMER
ANOMALY RECORDED WAS +1.5C (NEAR OR AT THE THRESHOLD FOR STRONG EL
NINOS) DURING THE SUMMER OF 1997.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL REALLY SEAL THE DEAL THAT THIS MAY WILL
BE UNSEASONABLY WARM IN PHILADELPHIA. IT "MAY" EVEN BE A TOP THREE
WARMEST. THIS FOLLOWS ON THE HEELS OF AN UNSEASONABLY WARM APRIL.
SINCE 1872, THE COMBINATION OF BOTH WARM (TOP THIRD OF ALL YEARS)
APRILS AND MAYS HAS ONLY OCCURRED TWENTY-THREE TIMES. BUT IT HAS
OCCURRED ELEVEN TIMES SINCE 1990 AND SIX OF THE LAST SEVEN
SPRINGS.

SO WE SCOURED THE CLIMATE RECORDS TO FIND BUDDING OR IN PROGRESS
EL NINOS THAT COINCIDED WITH BOTH WARM APRILS AND MAYS LOCALLY IN
THE CPC MONITORING ERA. WE FOUND THREE PAST SUMMERS THAT MET THE
CRITERIA. THE ONE SIGN IS THAT ALL THREE ANALOG SUMMERS WERE
WETTER THAN NORMAL, HOPEFULLY KEEPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS FROM
INTENSIFYING FURTHER.

THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE PREDICTIONS FOR THIS
UPCOMING SUMMER HAS WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER EXPECTED
IN OUR AREA. THE INTERNATIONAL MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE
SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC PREDICTING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION.

THE ANALOGS FOR PHILADELPHIA ARE:

YEAR    JUNE AVG   JULY AVG   AUGUST AVG   SUMMER AVG   SUMMER PCPN

1969      73.4        75.1      75.2         74.6        18.30
1977      68.6        77.8      76.2         74.2        15.50
1991      75.7        79.0      79.0         77.9        12.01
AVG       72.6        77.3      76.8         75.6        15.27

1981-
2010      73.3        78.1      76.6         76.0        11.28
NORMAL

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR OUR FORECAST AREA IS FOR EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...KLEIN
CLIMATE...STAFF



000
FXUS61 KPHI 270810
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
410 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE EAST COAST REMAINS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ITSELF OFF
THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLS TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
PARK OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY. THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL BE
POSITIONED IN BETWEEN THIS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AND AN APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE WILL BACK AND STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AS THE
PRESSURE/GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS
TIGHTENS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE SENSIBLE WX COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS WILL BE THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE
MID 60S TO NEAR 70F THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AS A DIRECT RESULT OF THE
THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND STRONG HEATING. MEAN MLCAPE FROM BOTH
THE 00Z NCAR/MMM HI-RES ENSEMBLES AND 03Z SREF ARE AROUND 1500 J/KG
FOR A MAJORITY OF OUR INLAND AREAS. WHILE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR BETWEEN
20-25 KT WILL BE MODEST, A 35-40 KT JET AT 500 MB WILL ENHANCE SHEAR
PROFILES IN THE 0-5 KM LAYER LATE IN THE DAY. THE MAIN QUESTION
LEADING UP TO TODAY WAS WHETHER THERE WAS GOING TO BE A LIFTING
MECHANISM TO INITIATE CONVECTION TODAY. ACCORDINGLY TO A MAJORITY OF
HIRES GUIDANCE, IT APPEARS THAT THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION WILL BE
ALONG A LEE SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR WEST DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A
BROKEN LINE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO EASTERN PA
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, WITH ADDED UPPER FORCING FROM AN
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. POPS ARE HIGHEST (LIKELY)
WEST OF THE PHILLY METRO WHERE THE ARRIVAL OF THE LINE SHOULD
COINCIDE CLOSER TO THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. THE FORECAST ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORTS A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS. THE
LATEST D1 OUTLOOK FROM SPC HAS PLACED AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-95
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH FORECAST 925/850 MB TEMPS ARE AROUND 1C HIGHER TODAY THAN
OBSERVED YESTERDAY, CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO ALSO BE HIGHER
(ESPECIALLY INLAND). THIS WILL MOST LIKELY RESULT IN MAX TEMPS TODAY
THAT ARE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. FORECAST HIGHS RANGING BETWEEN
85-90F (EXCEPT COOLER ALONG THE COAST) ARE ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE AFTER ACCOUNTING FOR A PERSISTENT COOL BIAS IN THE
MODELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
LATEST HIRES SIMULATIONS SHOW SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER EASTERN PA
CROSSING THE I-95 CORRIDOR TOWARD SUNSET AND DISSIPATING BEFORE IT
REACHES THE COAST. THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
EARLY. HOWEVER, CONVECTION ALONG THE LINE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD AS AS THE LINE BECOMES SEPARATED FROM
THE CONVERGENCE/LIFT NEAR THE LEE TROUGH AND INSTABILITY START TO
WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ACCORDINGLY, POPS DECREASE
SHARPLY FROM WEST TO EAST.

CLOUD COVER AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP TEMPS UP TONIGHT. MIN
TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. IF WE ARE ABLE TO CLEAR
OUT OVERNIGHT, WE MAY SEE PATCHES OF FOG DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON THURSDAY, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A SHORT WAVE
ALOFT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS WELL. WITH AN
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE QPF
AMOUNTS ARE NOT HIGH, 0.10-0.25 INCHES, PW VALUES ARE NEAR 1.5
INCHES, SO IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WITH A LACK OF
STRONG SHEAR, THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW, ALTHOUGH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN.

ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE ATLANTIC, WITH OUR AREA ON THE WESTERN
EDGE. SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL, WHICH
SHOULD HELP KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY DRY INTO FRIDAY. WITH RETURN
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA, INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN AREAS. THIS DAYTIME INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS.

THE RIDGING ALOFT PUSHES EASTWARD SLIGHTLY SATURDAY, WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING, ALLOWING FOR A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY. WITH DAYTIME
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA, AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF REGARDING THIS FRONT. THE
GFS HAS THE FRONT AND ITS PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF HAS THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WE`LL CONTINUE WITH ENHANCED POPS DURING THE
TIME PERIOD, GENERALLY CENTERED AROUND SUNDAY AND WILL BE ABLE TO
BETTER FINE TUNE TIMING AS MODELS COME TO AN AGREEMENT. PW VALUES
INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES, SO THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE TIME PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH AND LIKELY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. AGAIN, THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE
GFS KEEPS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA, KEEPING MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF STARTS TO LIFT
THE FRONT BACK NORTH TOWARD THE AREA, BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER CHANCES. WE`LL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY,
BECAUSE THE GFS HAS DOES HAVE A FEW SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES
FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA. SO THIS COULD STILL PRODUCE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LOW CLOUDS WITH CIGS AROUND 1500 FT HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE DELMARVA
AND ARE FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTHWARD INTO THE TERMINALS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. A TEMPO GROUP WAS KEPT WITH THE 06Z TAFS FOR ALL THE
TERMINALS FOR SEVERAL HOURS BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z. MVFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR MID MORNING.

EXPECT SHRA AND TSRA TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN PA THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT A TSRA PROB30 GROUP FOR RDG
AND ABE FOR THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. FARTHER EAST, THERE IS HIGHER
UNCERTAINTY IF STORMS WILL BE MAINTAINED BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
PHILLY TERMINALS SO NO MENTION OF TSRA AT THIS TIME. STORMS UNLIKELY
TO REACH ACY THIS EVENING.

S-SW WINDS 5-10 KT THIS MORNING INCREASE TO 10-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY VFR. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY LOCALLY
REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS.

FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WESTERN TAFS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY, THEN LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR DURING
THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY
LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20
KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WAS CANCELLED FOR THIS MORNING AS WINDS AND SEAS HAVE FALLEN TO
BELOW SCA LEVELS. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. EXPECT GUSTS TO 25 KT, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. SEAS WILL
RESPOND TO THE STRENGTHENING WINDS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO NEAR 5 FT. ACCORDINGLY, THE SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOP 10 WARMEST MAY WILL OCCUR IN LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

THE FIRST 25 DAYS OF MAY IN OUR FORECAST AREA WERE AVERAGING
ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

RUNNING THE NUMBERS FROM THE FCST THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH WE
FIND THE FOLLOWING.

FOR PHILADELPHIA...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1874.
PROJECTING A MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 69 TO 70 RISING FROM
THE CURRENT VALUE OF 67.8, AT LEAST 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
HEADING FOR MOST LIKELY THE THIRD WARMEST MAY ON RECORD. WARMEST
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN MAY ON RECORD WAS 70.8 IN 1991. THEN 69.2
2004 AND 68.2 IN 2012.

FOR ALLENTOWN...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1922. THE MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IS CURRENTLY 63.9 DEGREES. IT IS LIKELY TO
INCREASE BY A DEGREE OR TWO LATER THIS WEEK, LEADING TO A TOP 10
WARMEST MAY THIS YEAR AT ALLENTOWN. THE WARMEST AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE IN MAY WAS 67.2 BACK IN 1991.

FOR WILMINGTON.... THE MONTH OF MAY IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE
TOP 5- 10 WARMEST. THE CURRENT MONTHLY TEMPERATURE IS 65.8 DEGREES
AND SHOULD RISE A DEGREE OR TWO BY MONTHS END. THE WARMEST MAY WAS
IN 1896 WHERE THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 70.1 DEGREES. IN 1991
THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 69.1 DEGREES.

FOR ATLANTIC CITY... THE MONTH IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE TOP
THREE WARMEST MAYS. CURRENTLY, THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE
MONTH IS 64.5 DEGREES AND IS LIKELY TO RISE A DEGREE TOR TWO BY
MONTHS END. THE WARMEST MAY WAS BACK IN 2004 WHERE THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE REACHED 66.9 DEGREES. IN 1991 THE MONTHLY AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE WAS 66 DEGREES. BOTH 2011 AND 2012 SAW A MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 65 DEGREES.

NORMAL FIRST DATE OF 90 OR HIGHER.

PHILADELPHIA MAY 29 ALLENTOWN MAY 30 WILMINGTON JUNE 4 ATLANTIC
CITY JUNE 11.

*************************************************************

HERE IS OUR ANNUAL LOOK AS TO HOW HOT, HOT, HOT THE SUMMER WILL
BE BASED ON PAST PERFORMANCES.

A FULL FLEDGED EL NINO IS UNDERWAY IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. ALL
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS KEEP IT GOING, THE DIFFERENCES
THAT EXIST ARE TO ITS STRENGTH THROUGH THIS UPCOMING SUMMER. THE
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS ARE AVERAGING A MODERATE EL NINO
FOR THE COMBINED SUMMER MONTHS. SOME MODELS, INCLUDING THE CFS2
AND ECMWF ARE PREDICTING A STRONG EL NINO. IN THE CPC MONITORING
EL NINO ERA STARTING SINCE 1950, THE HIGHEST (WARMEST) SUMMER
ANOMALY RECORDED WAS +1.5C (NEAR OR AT THE THRESHOLD FOR STRONG EL
NINOS) DURING THE SUMMER OF 1997.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL REALLY SEAL THE DEAL THAT THIS MAY WILL
BE UNSEASONABLY WARM IN PHILADELPHIA. IT "MAY" EVEN BE A TOP THREE
WARMEST. THIS FOLLOWS ON THE HEELS OF AN UNSEASONABLY WARM APRIL.
SINCE 1872, THE COMBINATION OF BOTH WARM (TOP THIRD OF ALL YEARS)
APRILS AND MAYS HAS ONLY OCCURRED TWENTY-THREE TIMES. BUT IT HAS
OCCURRED ELEVEN TIMES SINCE 1990 AND SIX OF THE LAST SEVEN
SPRINGS.

SO WE SCOURED THE CLIMATE RECORDS TO FIND BUDDING OR IN PROGRESS
EL NINOS THAT COINCIDED WITH BOTH WARM APRILS AND MAYS LOCALLY IN
THE CPC MONITORING ERA. WE FOUND THREE PAST SUMMERS THAT MET THE
CRITERIA. THE ONE SIGN IS THAT ALL THREE ANALOG SUMMERS WERE
WETTER THAN NORMAL, HOPEFULLY KEEPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS FROM
INTENSIFYING FURTHER.

THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE PREDICTIONS FOR THIS
UPCOMING SUMMER HAS WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER EXPECTED
IN OUR AREA. THE INTERNATIONAL MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE
SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC PREDICTING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION.

THE ANALOGS FOR PHILADELPHIA ARE:

YEAR    JUNE AVG   JULY AVG   AUGUST AVG   SUMMER AVG   SUMMER PCPN

1969      73.4        75.1      75.2         74.6        18.30
1977      68.6        77.8      76.2         74.2        15.50
1991      75.7        79.0      79.0         77.9        12.01
AVG       72.6        77.3      76.8         75.6        15.27

1981-
2010      73.3        78.1      76.6         76.0        11.28
NORMAL

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR OUR FORECAST AREA IS FOR EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KPHI 270810
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
410 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE EAST COAST REMAINS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ITSELF OFF
THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLS TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
PARK OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY. THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL BE
POSITIONED IN BETWEEN THIS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AND AN APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE WILL BACK AND STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AS THE
PRESSURE/GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS
TIGHTENS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE SENSIBLE WX COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS WILL BE THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE
MID 60S TO NEAR 70F THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AS A DIRECT RESULT OF THE
THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND STRONG HEATING. MEAN MLCAPE FROM BOTH
THE 00Z NCAR/MMM HI-RES ENSEMBLES AND 03Z SREF ARE AROUND 1500 J/KG
FOR A MAJORITY OF OUR INLAND AREAS. WHILE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR BETWEEN
20-25 KT WILL BE MODEST, A 35-40 KT JET AT 500 MB WILL ENHANCE SHEAR
PROFILES IN THE 0-5 KM LAYER LATE IN THE DAY. THE MAIN QUESTION
LEADING UP TO TODAY WAS WHETHER THERE WAS GOING TO BE A LIFTING
MECHANISM TO INITIATE CONVECTION TODAY. ACCORDINGLY TO A MAJORITY OF
HIRES GUIDANCE, IT APPEARS THAT THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION WILL BE
ALONG A LEE SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR WEST DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A
BROKEN LINE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO EASTERN PA
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, WITH ADDED UPPER FORCING FROM AN
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. POPS ARE HIGHEST (LIKELY)
WEST OF THE PHILLY METRO WHERE THE ARRIVAL OF THE LINE SHOULD
COINCIDE CLOSER TO THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. THE FORECAST ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORTS A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS. THE
LATEST D1 OUTLOOK FROM SPC HAS PLACED AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-95
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH FORECAST 925/850 MB TEMPS ARE AROUND 1C HIGHER TODAY THAN
OBSERVED YESTERDAY, CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO ALSO BE HIGHER
(ESPECIALLY INLAND). THIS WILL MOST LIKELY RESULT IN MAX TEMPS TODAY
THAT ARE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. FORECAST HIGHS RANGING BETWEEN
85-90F (EXCEPT COOLER ALONG THE COAST) ARE ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE AFTER ACCOUNTING FOR A PERSISTENT COOL BIAS IN THE
MODELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
LATEST HIRES SIMULATIONS SHOW SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER EASTERN PA
CROSSING THE I-95 CORRIDOR TOWARD SUNSET AND DISSIPATING BEFORE IT
REACHES THE COAST. THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
EARLY. HOWEVER, CONVECTION ALONG THE LINE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD AS AS THE LINE BECOMES SEPARATED FROM
THE CONVERGENCE/LIFT NEAR THE LEE TROUGH AND INSTABILITY START TO
WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ACCORDINGLY, POPS DECREASE
SHARPLY FROM WEST TO EAST.

CLOUD COVER AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP TEMPS UP TONIGHT. MIN
TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. IF WE ARE ABLE TO CLEAR
OUT OVERNIGHT, WE MAY SEE PATCHES OF FOG DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON THURSDAY, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A SHORT WAVE
ALOFT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS WELL. WITH AN
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE QPF
AMOUNTS ARE NOT HIGH, 0.10-0.25 INCHES, PW VALUES ARE NEAR 1.5
INCHES, SO IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WITH A LACK OF
STRONG SHEAR, THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW, ALTHOUGH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN.

ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE ATLANTIC, WITH OUR AREA ON THE WESTERN
EDGE. SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL, WHICH
SHOULD HELP KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY DRY INTO FRIDAY. WITH RETURN
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA, INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN AREAS. THIS DAYTIME INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS.

THE RIDGING ALOFT PUSHES EASTWARD SLIGHTLY SATURDAY, WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING, ALLOWING FOR A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY. WITH DAYTIME
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA, AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF REGARDING THIS FRONT. THE
GFS HAS THE FRONT AND ITS PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF HAS THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WE`LL CONTINUE WITH ENHANCED POPS DURING THE
TIME PERIOD, GENERALLY CENTERED AROUND SUNDAY AND WILL BE ABLE TO
BETTER FINE TUNE TIMING AS MODELS COME TO AN AGREEMENT. PW VALUES
INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES, SO THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE TIME PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH AND LIKELY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. AGAIN, THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE
GFS KEEPS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA, KEEPING MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF STARTS TO LIFT
THE FRONT BACK NORTH TOWARD THE AREA, BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER CHANCES. WE`LL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY,
BECAUSE THE GFS HAS DOES HAVE A FEW SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES
FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA. SO THIS COULD STILL PRODUCE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LOW CLOUDS WITH CIGS AROUND 1500 FT HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE DELMARVA
AND ARE FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTHWARD INTO THE TERMINALS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. A TEMPO GROUP WAS KEPT WITH THE 06Z TAFS FOR ALL THE
TERMINALS FOR SEVERAL HOURS BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z. MVFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR MID MORNING.

EXPECT SHRA AND TSRA TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN PA THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT A TSRA PROB30 GROUP FOR RDG
AND ABE FOR THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. FARTHER EAST, THERE IS HIGHER
UNCERTAINTY IF STORMS WILL BE MAINTAINED BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
PHILLY TERMINALS SO NO MENTION OF TSRA AT THIS TIME. STORMS UNLIKELY
TO REACH ACY THIS EVENING.

S-SW WINDS 5-10 KT THIS MORNING INCREASE TO 10-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY VFR. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY LOCALLY
REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS.

FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WESTERN TAFS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY, THEN LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR DURING
THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY
LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20
KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WAS CANCELLED FOR THIS MORNING AS WINDS AND SEAS HAVE FALLEN TO
BELOW SCA LEVELS. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. EXPECT GUSTS TO 25 KT, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. SEAS WILL
RESPOND TO THE STRENGTHENING WINDS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO NEAR 5 FT. ACCORDINGLY, THE SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOP 10 WARMEST MAY WILL OCCUR IN LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

THE FIRST 25 DAYS OF MAY IN OUR FORECAST AREA WERE AVERAGING
ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

RUNNING THE NUMBERS FROM THE FCST THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH WE
FIND THE FOLLOWING.

FOR PHILADELPHIA...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1874.
PROJECTING A MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 69 TO 70 RISING FROM
THE CURRENT VALUE OF 67.8, AT LEAST 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
HEADING FOR MOST LIKELY THE THIRD WARMEST MAY ON RECORD. WARMEST
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN MAY ON RECORD WAS 70.8 IN 1991. THEN 69.2
2004 AND 68.2 IN 2012.

FOR ALLENTOWN...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1922. THE MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IS CURRENTLY 63.9 DEGREES. IT IS LIKELY TO
INCREASE BY A DEGREE OR TWO LATER THIS WEEK, LEADING TO A TOP 10
WARMEST MAY THIS YEAR AT ALLENTOWN. THE WARMEST AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE IN MAY WAS 67.2 BACK IN 1991.

FOR WILMINGTON.... THE MONTH OF MAY IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE
TOP 5- 10 WARMEST. THE CURRENT MONTHLY TEMPERATURE IS 65.8 DEGREES
AND SHOULD RISE A DEGREE OR TWO BY MONTHS END. THE WARMEST MAY WAS
IN 1896 WHERE THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 70.1 DEGREES. IN 1991
THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 69.1 DEGREES.

FOR ATLANTIC CITY... THE MONTH IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE TOP
THREE WARMEST MAYS. CURRENTLY, THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE
MONTH IS 64.5 DEGREES AND IS LIKELY TO RISE A DEGREE TOR TWO BY
MONTHS END. THE WARMEST MAY WAS BACK IN 2004 WHERE THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE REACHED 66.9 DEGREES. IN 1991 THE MONTHLY AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE WAS 66 DEGREES. BOTH 2011 AND 2012 SAW A MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 65 DEGREES.

NORMAL FIRST DATE OF 90 OR HIGHER.

PHILADELPHIA MAY 29 ALLENTOWN MAY 30 WILMINGTON JUNE 4 ATLANTIC
CITY JUNE 11.

*************************************************************

HERE IS OUR ANNUAL LOOK AS TO HOW HOT, HOT, HOT THE SUMMER WILL
BE BASED ON PAST PERFORMANCES.

A FULL FLEDGED EL NINO IS UNDERWAY IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. ALL
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS KEEP IT GOING, THE DIFFERENCES
THAT EXIST ARE TO ITS STRENGTH THROUGH THIS UPCOMING SUMMER. THE
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS ARE AVERAGING A MODERATE EL NINO
FOR THE COMBINED SUMMER MONTHS. SOME MODELS, INCLUDING THE CFS2
AND ECMWF ARE PREDICTING A STRONG EL NINO. IN THE CPC MONITORING
EL NINO ERA STARTING SINCE 1950, THE HIGHEST (WARMEST) SUMMER
ANOMALY RECORDED WAS +1.5C (NEAR OR AT THE THRESHOLD FOR STRONG EL
NINOS) DURING THE SUMMER OF 1997.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL REALLY SEAL THE DEAL THAT THIS MAY WILL
BE UNSEASONABLY WARM IN PHILADELPHIA. IT "MAY" EVEN BE A TOP THREE
WARMEST. THIS FOLLOWS ON THE HEELS OF AN UNSEASONABLY WARM APRIL.
SINCE 1872, THE COMBINATION OF BOTH WARM (TOP THIRD OF ALL YEARS)
APRILS AND MAYS HAS ONLY OCCURRED TWENTY-THREE TIMES. BUT IT HAS
OCCURRED ELEVEN TIMES SINCE 1990 AND SIX OF THE LAST SEVEN
SPRINGS.

SO WE SCOURED THE CLIMATE RECORDS TO FIND BUDDING OR IN PROGRESS
EL NINOS THAT COINCIDED WITH BOTH WARM APRILS AND MAYS LOCALLY IN
THE CPC MONITORING ERA. WE FOUND THREE PAST SUMMERS THAT MET THE
CRITERIA. THE ONE SIGN IS THAT ALL THREE ANALOG SUMMERS WERE
WETTER THAN NORMAL, HOPEFULLY KEEPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS FROM
INTENSIFYING FURTHER.

THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE PREDICTIONS FOR THIS
UPCOMING SUMMER HAS WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER EXPECTED
IN OUR AREA. THE INTERNATIONAL MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE
SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC PREDICTING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION.

THE ANALOGS FOR PHILADELPHIA ARE:

YEAR    JUNE AVG   JULY AVG   AUGUST AVG   SUMMER AVG   SUMMER PCPN

1969      73.4        75.1      75.2         74.6        18.30
1977      68.6        77.8      76.2         74.2        15.50
1991      75.7        79.0      79.0         77.9        12.01
AVG       72.6        77.3      76.8         75.6        15.27

1981-
2010      73.3        78.1      76.6         76.0        11.28
NORMAL

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR OUR FORECAST AREA IS FOR EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KPHI 270810
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
410 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE EAST COAST REMAINS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ITSELF OFF
THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLS TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
PARK OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY. THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL BE
POSITIONED IN BETWEEN THIS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AND AN APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE WILL BACK AND STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AS THE
PRESSURE/GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS
TIGHTENS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE SENSIBLE WX COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS WILL BE THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE
MID 60S TO NEAR 70F THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AS A DIRECT RESULT OF THE
THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND STRONG HEATING. MEAN MLCAPE FROM BOTH
THE 00Z NCAR/MMM HI-RES ENSEMBLES AND 03Z SREF ARE AROUND 1500 J/KG
FOR A MAJORITY OF OUR INLAND AREAS. WHILE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR BETWEEN
20-25 KT WILL BE MODEST, A 35-40 KT JET AT 500 MB WILL ENHANCE SHEAR
PROFILES IN THE 0-5 KM LAYER LATE IN THE DAY. THE MAIN QUESTION
LEADING UP TO TODAY WAS WHETHER THERE WAS GOING TO BE A LIFTING
MECHANISM TO INITIATE CONVECTION TODAY. ACCORDINGLY TO A MAJORITY OF
HIRES GUIDANCE, IT APPEARS THAT THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION WILL BE
ALONG A LEE SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR WEST DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A
BROKEN LINE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO EASTERN PA
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, WITH ADDED UPPER FORCING FROM AN
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. POPS ARE HIGHEST (LIKELY)
WEST OF THE PHILLY METRO WHERE THE ARRIVAL OF THE LINE SHOULD
COINCIDE CLOSER TO THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. THE FORECAST ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORTS A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS. THE
LATEST D1 OUTLOOK FROM SPC HAS PLACED AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-95
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH FORECAST 925/850 MB TEMPS ARE AROUND 1C HIGHER TODAY THAN
OBSERVED YESTERDAY, CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO ALSO BE HIGHER
(ESPECIALLY INLAND). THIS WILL MOST LIKELY RESULT IN MAX TEMPS TODAY
THAT ARE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. FORECAST HIGHS RANGING BETWEEN
85-90F (EXCEPT COOLER ALONG THE COAST) ARE ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE AFTER ACCOUNTING FOR A PERSISTENT COOL BIAS IN THE
MODELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
LATEST HIRES SIMULATIONS SHOW SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER EASTERN PA
CROSSING THE I-95 CORRIDOR TOWARD SUNSET AND DISSIPATING BEFORE IT
REACHES THE COAST. THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
EARLY. HOWEVER, CONVECTION ALONG THE LINE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD AS AS THE LINE BECOMES SEPARATED FROM
THE CONVERGENCE/LIFT NEAR THE LEE TROUGH AND INSTABILITY START TO
WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ACCORDINGLY, POPS DECREASE
SHARPLY FROM WEST TO EAST.

CLOUD COVER AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP TEMPS UP TONIGHT. MIN
TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. IF WE ARE ABLE TO CLEAR
OUT OVERNIGHT, WE MAY SEE PATCHES OF FOG DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON THURSDAY, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A SHORT WAVE
ALOFT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS WELL. WITH AN
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE QPF
AMOUNTS ARE NOT HIGH, 0.10-0.25 INCHES, PW VALUES ARE NEAR 1.5
INCHES, SO IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WITH A LACK OF
STRONG SHEAR, THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW, ALTHOUGH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN.

ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE ATLANTIC, WITH OUR AREA ON THE WESTERN
EDGE. SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL, WHICH
SHOULD HELP KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY DRY INTO FRIDAY. WITH RETURN
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA, INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN AREAS. THIS DAYTIME INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS.

THE RIDGING ALOFT PUSHES EASTWARD SLIGHTLY SATURDAY, WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING, ALLOWING FOR A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY. WITH DAYTIME
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA, AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF REGARDING THIS FRONT. THE
GFS HAS THE FRONT AND ITS PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF HAS THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WE`LL CONTINUE WITH ENHANCED POPS DURING THE
TIME PERIOD, GENERALLY CENTERED AROUND SUNDAY AND WILL BE ABLE TO
BETTER FINE TUNE TIMING AS MODELS COME TO AN AGREEMENT. PW VALUES
INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES, SO THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE TIME PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH AND LIKELY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. AGAIN, THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE
GFS KEEPS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA, KEEPING MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF STARTS TO LIFT
THE FRONT BACK NORTH TOWARD THE AREA, BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER CHANCES. WE`LL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY,
BECAUSE THE GFS HAS DOES HAVE A FEW SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES
FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA. SO THIS COULD STILL PRODUCE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LOW CLOUDS WITH CIGS AROUND 1500 FT HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE DELMARVA
AND ARE FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTHWARD INTO THE TERMINALS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. A TEMPO GROUP WAS KEPT WITH THE 06Z TAFS FOR ALL THE
TERMINALS FOR SEVERAL HOURS BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z. MVFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR MID MORNING.

EXPECT SHRA AND TSRA TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN PA THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT A TSRA PROB30 GROUP FOR RDG
AND ABE FOR THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. FARTHER EAST, THERE IS HIGHER
UNCERTAINTY IF STORMS WILL BE MAINTAINED BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
PHILLY TERMINALS SO NO MENTION OF TSRA AT THIS TIME. STORMS UNLIKELY
TO REACH ACY THIS EVENING.

S-SW WINDS 5-10 KT THIS MORNING INCREASE TO 10-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY VFR. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY LOCALLY
REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS.

FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WESTERN TAFS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY, THEN LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR DURING
THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY
LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20
KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WAS CANCELLED FOR THIS MORNING AS WINDS AND SEAS HAVE FALLEN TO
BELOW SCA LEVELS. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. EXPECT GUSTS TO 25 KT, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. SEAS WILL
RESPOND TO THE STRENGTHENING WINDS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO NEAR 5 FT. ACCORDINGLY, THE SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOP 10 WARMEST MAY WILL OCCUR IN LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

THE FIRST 25 DAYS OF MAY IN OUR FORECAST AREA WERE AVERAGING
ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

RUNNING THE NUMBERS FROM THE FCST THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH WE
FIND THE FOLLOWING.

FOR PHILADELPHIA...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1874.
PROJECTING A MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 69 TO 70 RISING FROM
THE CURRENT VALUE OF 67.8, AT LEAST 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
HEADING FOR MOST LIKELY THE THIRD WARMEST MAY ON RECORD. WARMEST
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN MAY ON RECORD WAS 70.8 IN 1991. THEN 69.2
2004 AND 68.2 IN 2012.

FOR ALLENTOWN...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1922. THE MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IS CURRENTLY 63.9 DEGREES. IT IS LIKELY TO
INCREASE BY A DEGREE OR TWO LATER THIS WEEK, LEADING TO A TOP 10
WARMEST MAY THIS YEAR AT ALLENTOWN. THE WARMEST AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE IN MAY WAS 67.2 BACK IN 1991.

FOR WILMINGTON.... THE MONTH OF MAY IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE
TOP 5- 10 WARMEST. THE CURRENT MONTHLY TEMPERATURE IS 65.8 DEGREES
AND SHOULD RISE A DEGREE OR TWO BY MONTHS END. THE WARMEST MAY WAS
IN 1896 WHERE THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 70.1 DEGREES. IN 1991
THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 69.1 DEGREES.

FOR ATLANTIC CITY... THE MONTH IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE TOP
THREE WARMEST MAYS. CURRENTLY, THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE
MONTH IS 64.5 DEGREES AND IS LIKELY TO RISE A DEGREE TOR TWO BY
MONTHS END. THE WARMEST MAY WAS BACK IN 2004 WHERE THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE REACHED 66.9 DEGREES. IN 1991 THE MONTHLY AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE WAS 66 DEGREES. BOTH 2011 AND 2012 SAW A MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 65 DEGREES.

NORMAL FIRST DATE OF 90 OR HIGHER.

PHILADELPHIA MAY 29 ALLENTOWN MAY 30 WILMINGTON JUNE 4 ATLANTIC
CITY JUNE 11.

*************************************************************

HERE IS OUR ANNUAL LOOK AS TO HOW HOT, HOT, HOT THE SUMMER WILL
BE BASED ON PAST PERFORMANCES.

A FULL FLEDGED EL NINO IS UNDERWAY IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. ALL
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS KEEP IT GOING, THE DIFFERENCES
THAT EXIST ARE TO ITS STRENGTH THROUGH THIS UPCOMING SUMMER. THE
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS ARE AVERAGING A MODERATE EL NINO
FOR THE COMBINED SUMMER MONTHS. SOME MODELS, INCLUDING THE CFS2
AND ECMWF ARE PREDICTING A STRONG EL NINO. IN THE CPC MONITORING
EL NINO ERA STARTING SINCE 1950, THE HIGHEST (WARMEST) SUMMER
ANOMALY RECORDED WAS +1.5C (NEAR OR AT THE THRESHOLD FOR STRONG EL
NINOS) DURING THE SUMMER OF 1997.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL REALLY SEAL THE DEAL THAT THIS MAY WILL
BE UNSEASONABLY WARM IN PHILADELPHIA. IT "MAY" EVEN BE A TOP THREE
WARMEST. THIS FOLLOWS ON THE HEELS OF AN UNSEASONABLY WARM APRIL.
SINCE 1872, THE COMBINATION OF BOTH WARM (TOP THIRD OF ALL YEARS)
APRILS AND MAYS HAS ONLY OCCURRED TWENTY-THREE TIMES. BUT IT HAS
OCCURRED ELEVEN TIMES SINCE 1990 AND SIX OF THE LAST SEVEN
SPRINGS.

SO WE SCOURED THE CLIMATE RECORDS TO FIND BUDDING OR IN PROGRESS
EL NINOS THAT COINCIDED WITH BOTH WARM APRILS AND MAYS LOCALLY IN
THE CPC MONITORING ERA. WE FOUND THREE PAST SUMMERS THAT MET THE
CRITERIA. THE ONE SIGN IS THAT ALL THREE ANALOG SUMMERS WERE
WETTER THAN NORMAL, HOPEFULLY KEEPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS FROM
INTENSIFYING FURTHER.

THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE PREDICTIONS FOR THIS
UPCOMING SUMMER HAS WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER EXPECTED
IN OUR AREA. THE INTERNATIONAL MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE
SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC PREDICTING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION.

THE ANALOGS FOR PHILADELPHIA ARE:

YEAR    JUNE AVG   JULY AVG   AUGUST AVG   SUMMER AVG   SUMMER PCPN

1969      73.4        75.1      75.2         74.6        18.30
1977      68.6        77.8      76.2         74.2        15.50
1991      75.7        79.0      79.0         77.9        12.01
AVG       72.6        77.3      76.8         75.6        15.27

1981-
2010      73.3        78.1      76.6         76.0        11.28
NORMAL

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR OUR FORECAST AREA IS FOR EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...STAFF


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270808
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
408 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TODAY AND THURSDAY...WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEARLY STATIONARY
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST
STATES ON FRIDAY...AND SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY. A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA LATER IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER
PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN...WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST. FLOW ALOFT IS FROM THE SW TO SSW ON THE PERIPHERY OF UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SE COAST. LOCAL AREA REMAINS PRECIP-FREE
BUT CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. TEMPS ARE
VERY WARM...GENLY BETWEEN 70 AND 75 F WITH DEW PTS PRIMARILY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S. FOR TODAY...EXPECTING INCREASED CHANCES FOR
PRECIP COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WX. THIS DUE TO
UPPER RIDGE WEAKENING AND A MORE PRONOUNCED SFC/LEE TROUGH OVER
THE PIEDMONT. MODELS SHOW VARYING SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP
COVERAGE AND LOCATION LATER TODAY. WILL GENLY FAVOR THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME AS MODEL DEPICTION OF MORNING PRECIP HAS
BEEN OVERDONE THUS FAR. MOST OF THE CWA WILL BE IN A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE WX...OVERALL SHEAR IS TOO WEAK (HIGHER N/NE OF THE
LOCAL AREA) TO SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WX. THE SFC/LEE TROUGH
MAY ACT AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM WITH FAIRLY HIGH CAPE VALUES BY
AFTN. WILL GENLY KEEP COVERAGE OF TSTMS IN THE 30-40% RANGE...A
LITTLE LOWER TOWARDS THE SE VA/NE NC COAST. PWAT VALUES REMAIN
HIGH ~1.75" AND EVEN THOUGH H7 TO H5 FLOW IS AROUND 20 KT...A LOW
LEVEL JET IS FORM NEAR THE SAME DIRECTION AND SPEED SO TRAINING
CELLS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN/MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IF
STORMS GET INITIATED. WARM AGAIN WITH HIGHS GENLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S...LOCALLY IN THE 70S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A PERSISTENT TROUGH ON THU WHICH WHEN
COMBINED WITH THE APPRCHG MSTR FROM THE WSW WILL LIKELY BE THE
TRIGGER FOR MORE SCT CONVECTION THU AFTN/EARLY EVENING. TIMING
RATHER PROBLEMATIC GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE OF S/W ENERGY EJECTING NE
FROM DSPTG MCS`S....BUT THE EMPHASIS OF THIS FCST WILL BE FOR
MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EACH DAY. HIGHEST POPS (40-50%)
WILL BE ACROSS THE NWRN THIRD OF FA...20-30% REST OF FA. THREAT
WILL BE FOR LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS GIVEN THE PW`S AOA 1.5 INCHES...DP
TMPS IN THE 60S AND RELATIVELY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. HIGHS EACH
DAY IN THE 80S...XCPT 70S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AGAIN. POPS ON
FRI SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH A BIT AND FOCUS MORE WEST OF I-95 AS
SFC HIGH PUSHES OFF THE NE COAST AS SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE MID
ATLC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF SAT WITH AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE BREAKING
DOWN OVER THE ERN SEABOARD AS A COLD FRNT DROPS INTO THE MED ATLC
REGION. THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES AMONGST MODELS IN REGARDS
TO WHEN THE FRNT MAKES IT INTO THE LOCAL AREA WHICH WOULD AFFECT
TIMING OF PCPN...WITH THE 12Z GFS FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECWMF. FOR
NOW WITH THIS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT WILL FORECAST 20-30% POPS SAT
INCREASING TO 30-50% SUN WITH THE FRNT IN THE VICINITY. EXPECT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BOTH DAYS WITH HIGHS AVGG IN THE MID TO UPR
80S. CHANCE OF RAIN CONTINUES INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS NOT
QUITE AS WARM AS THE WEEKEND...HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR
80S ON AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...AS LOW PRESSURE LOCATES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
RESULT IS A S-SW WIND 5-15 KT...STRONGEST NEAR THE COAST. LATEST
SATELLITE INDICATES BKN-OVC MVFR DECK (1500-2000 FT AGL)
EXPANDING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VA. MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE SPREAD NWD
INTO KRIC. ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN TANDEM WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN THE CONTINUED EXPANSION OF THIS
CLOUD DECK...BUT DUE TO SUB-CLOUD LAYER MIXING...DO NOT ANTICIPATE
IFR CIGS LIKE SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES. COMBINATION OF CLOUD
COVER...MIXING AND RELATIVELY DRY SOILS WILL INHIBIT FOG
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT MVFR DECK TO ERODE BY MID-MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. S-SW WINDS OF 10-15 KT PERSIST
TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. ISOLATED-WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z...MAINLY OVER
THE PIEDMONT INTO CENTRAL VA.

HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES INTO THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS OVER THE WATER INDICATE SUBSIDING S-SW WINDS OVER THE
WATER...DROPPING AOB 15 KT. WAVES AVG 2 FT AND SEAS 2-4 FT. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO SE
CANADA. A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWWD OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER EVENING OF SCA CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING...BUT GRADIENT WINDS ARE WEAKER THAN LAST NIGHTS (TUES
NIGHT) MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS. TEMP ADVECTION IS ALSO NEUTRAL. HAVE
CAPPED WIND SPEEDS AT 15 KT AS A RESULT...REMAINING SUB-SCA.
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION THURS AS
THE HIGH PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE. SLY WINDS AVG 10-15 KT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NE STATES AND SE CANADA THURS-FRI BEHIND
THE FRONT...RELAXING THE GRADIENT OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. FLOW
BECOMES SELY THURS NIGHT-FRI...AOB 10 KT. HIGH PRESSURE AND SLY
WINDS AOB 15 KT PERSIST OVER THE WATER INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...REACHING THE WATERS SUN
NIGHT BEFORE STALLING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...SAM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270808
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
408 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TODAY AND THURSDAY...WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEARLY STATIONARY
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST
STATES ON FRIDAY...AND SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY. A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA LATER IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER
PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN...WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST. FLOW ALOFT IS FROM THE SW TO SSW ON THE PERIPHERY OF UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SE COAST. LOCAL AREA REMAINS PRECIP-FREE
BUT CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. TEMPS ARE
VERY WARM...GENLY BETWEEN 70 AND 75 F WITH DEW PTS PRIMARILY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S. FOR TODAY...EXPECTING INCREASED CHANCES FOR
PRECIP COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WX. THIS DUE TO
UPPER RIDGE WEAKENING AND A MORE PRONOUNCED SFC/LEE TROUGH OVER
THE PIEDMONT. MODELS SHOW VARYING SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP
COVERAGE AND LOCATION LATER TODAY. WILL GENLY FAVOR THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME AS MODEL DEPICTION OF MORNING PRECIP HAS
BEEN OVERDONE THUS FAR. MOST OF THE CWA WILL BE IN A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE WX...OVERALL SHEAR IS TOO WEAK (HIGHER N/NE OF THE
LOCAL AREA) TO SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WX. THE SFC/LEE TROUGH
MAY ACT AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM WITH FAIRLY HIGH CAPE VALUES BY
AFTN. WILL GENLY KEEP COVERAGE OF TSTMS IN THE 30-40% RANGE...A
LITTLE LOWER TOWARDS THE SE VA/NE NC COAST. PWAT VALUES REMAIN
HIGH ~1.75" AND EVEN THOUGH H7 TO H5 FLOW IS AROUND 20 KT...A LOW
LEVEL JET IS FORM NEAR THE SAME DIRECTION AND SPEED SO TRAINING
CELLS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN/MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IF
STORMS GET INITIATED. WARM AGAIN WITH HIGHS GENLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S...LOCALLY IN THE 70S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A PERSISTENT TROUGH ON THU WHICH WHEN
COMBINED WITH THE APPRCHG MSTR FROM THE WSW WILL LIKELY BE THE
TRIGGER FOR MORE SCT CONVECTION THU AFTN/EARLY EVENING. TIMING
RATHER PROBLEMATIC GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE OF S/W ENERGY EJECTING NE
FROM DSPTG MCS`S....BUT THE EMPHASIS OF THIS FCST WILL BE FOR
MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EACH DAY. HIGHEST POPS (40-50%)
WILL BE ACROSS THE NWRN THIRD OF FA...20-30% REST OF FA. THREAT
WILL BE FOR LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS GIVEN THE PW`S AOA 1.5 INCHES...DP
TMPS IN THE 60S AND RELATIVELY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. HIGHS EACH
DAY IN THE 80S...XCPT 70S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AGAIN. POPS ON
FRI SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH A BIT AND FOCUS MORE WEST OF I-95 AS
SFC HIGH PUSHES OFF THE NE COAST AS SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE MID
ATLC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF SAT WITH AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE BREAKING
DOWN OVER THE ERN SEABOARD AS A COLD FRNT DROPS INTO THE MED ATLC
REGION. THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES AMONGST MODELS IN REGARDS
TO WHEN THE FRNT MAKES IT INTO THE LOCAL AREA WHICH WOULD AFFECT
TIMING OF PCPN...WITH THE 12Z GFS FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECWMF. FOR
NOW WITH THIS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT WILL FORECAST 20-30% POPS SAT
INCREASING TO 30-50% SUN WITH THE FRNT IN THE VICINITY. EXPECT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BOTH DAYS WITH HIGHS AVGG IN THE MID TO UPR
80S. CHANCE OF RAIN CONTINUES INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS NOT
QUITE AS WARM AS THE WEEKEND...HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR
80S ON AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...AS LOW PRESSURE LOCATES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
RESULT IS A S-SW WIND 5-15 KT...STRONGEST NEAR THE COAST. LATEST
SATELLITE INDICATES BKN-OVC MVFR DECK (1500-2000 FT AGL)
EXPANDING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VA. MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE SPREAD NWD
INTO KRIC. ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN TANDEM WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN THE CONTINUED EXPANSION OF THIS
CLOUD DECK...BUT DUE TO SUB-CLOUD LAYER MIXING...DO NOT ANTICIPATE
IFR CIGS LIKE SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES. COMBINATION OF CLOUD
COVER...MIXING AND RELATIVELY DRY SOILS WILL INHIBIT FOG
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT MVFR DECK TO ERODE BY MID-MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. S-SW WINDS OF 10-15 KT PERSIST
TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. ISOLATED-WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z...MAINLY OVER
THE PIEDMONT INTO CENTRAL VA.

HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES INTO THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS OVER THE WATER INDICATE SUBSIDING S-SW WINDS OVER THE
WATER...DROPPING AOB 15 KT. WAVES AVG 2 FT AND SEAS 2-4 FT. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO SE
CANADA. A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWWD OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER EVENING OF SCA CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING...BUT GRADIENT WINDS ARE WEAKER THAN LAST NIGHTS (TUES
NIGHT) MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS. TEMP ADVECTION IS ALSO NEUTRAL. HAVE
CAPPED WIND SPEEDS AT 15 KT AS A RESULT...REMAINING SUB-SCA.
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION THURS AS
THE HIGH PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE. SLY WINDS AVG 10-15 KT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NE STATES AND SE CANADA THURS-FRI BEHIND
THE FRONT...RELAXING THE GRADIENT OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. FLOW
BECOMES SELY THURS NIGHT-FRI...AOB 10 KT. HIGH PRESSURE AND SLY
WINDS AOB 15 KT PERSIST OVER THE WATER INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...REACHING THE WATERS SUN
NIGHT BEFORE STALLING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...SAM



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KLWX 270755
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
355 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING WARM HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
THURSDAY BUT WASH OUT BEFORE IT MAKES IT THROUGH. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAIN STORY TODAY WILL BE THE INCRSG LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS BY THIS AFTN/EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR
STORMS...MAINLY EAST OF A HAGERSTOWN TO DC TO SOUTHERN MD LINE.

REGION REMAINS PLACED UNDER PERSISTING UPPER LVL RIDGE TODAY WHILE
AN UPPER LVL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND APPROACHES THE
AREA BY TONIGHT. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED
OFFSHORE...THOUGH WILL WEAKEN ITS HOLD ON THE AREA THIS AFTN WITH
THE FORMATION OF A LEE TROUGH EXPECTED BY THIS AFTN. WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDING THE RIDGE THIS MORNING IS RESULTING IN ON GOING CONVECTION
OVER THE EASTERN OH RIVER VALLEY AS NOTED ON 07Z WATER VAPOR.
EXPECTING THIS PCPN TO REACH THE FAR WESTERN AREAS NEAR DAYBREAK
THIS MORNING. MAINLY SHOWERS THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISO TSTM
INITIALLY.

INCRSG COVERAGE IN THE CONVECTION BY MIDDAY. THE QUESTION THE PAST
FEW DAYS HAD BEEN HOW UNSTABLE THE ATMO WOULD BECOME THIS AFTN...AND
AS A RESULT WHAT WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER TO SVR TSTMS.
WHILE SHEAR HAS STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY ON THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS...GENERALLY AROUND 20-25 KTS...INSTABILITY REMAINS THE BIGGER
PLAYER IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE STRONGER STORMS FOR TODAY. AXIS OF
HIGHEST INSTABILITY ALIGNS ALONG THE LEE SFC TROUGH THIS AFTN...WITH
THE THINKING THAT A THINNER LAYER OF CLOUDS WILL SET UP OVER THE
EASTERN AREAS...LEADING TO BETTER DIURNAL HEATING. THE NAM...WITH
THE TYPICAL HIGHER DEW PTS...HAS THE MUCH HIGHER SBCAPE VALUES...ABV
2000 J/KG FOR INSTANCE AT DCA. BUT EVEN THE GFS IS SHOWING AROUND
1000 J/KG...SO EVEN BEING CONSERVATIVE THERE IS A GOOD AMT
INSTABILITY. GENERALLY THINKING THAT WITH THE NEAR UNIDIRECTIONAL
WIND FLOW...WILL SEE DEVELOPMENT OF A LINE OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL MD
MIDDAY UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. AS THE LINE PUSHES
EAST...EXPECTING IT TO HIT THE LEE TROUGH ALIGNED JUST EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND THOUGH LACKING ON THE SHEAR...THE INSTABILITY WILL
BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER STRONGER TO POSSIBLY EMBEDDED SVR STORMS. WITH
THE LACK OF SHEAR...EXPECTING GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS TO BE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.

BY THIS EVENING...WITH LOSS OF SFC BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY...
EXPECTING THE PCPN TO TAPER OFF...WITH AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE BCMG DRY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...AND EVERYWHERE
ELSE BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 IN THE MAIN METRO AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ANOTHER DAY WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS AS SFC LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST...DRAGGING ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION BY THURS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE SFC
HIGH AND UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL WORK TO STALL THE PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT...WITH IT BCMG NEARLY STATIONARY FOR MOST OF THURS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...EVENTUALLY WEAKENING BY THURS
NIGHT. THIS SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE THE TRIGGER MECHANISM FOR
ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY AS THE ATMO BECOMES DECENTLY UNSTABLE YET
AGAIN WITH TEMPS PUSHING WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEW PTS PERSISTING
IN THE 60S. WHILE THE INSTABILITY WONT BE NEAR THE LVLS AS
TODAY...EXPECTING A BUT MORE SHEAR OVER THE AREA TO AID IN TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. OVERALL SVR PARAMETERS ON THE WEAKER SIDE...AND WITH
A LACKING OF UPPER LVL SUPPORT AS THE BETTER FORCING REMAINS NORTH
OF THE AREA...NOT ANTICIPATING SVR OR EVEN STRONGER TSTM
DEVELOPMENT.

AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES THURS NIGHT...ALONG WITH ANY
DAYTIME RESULTING INSTABILITY...PCPN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. HAVE MAINTAINED AT LEAST SLIGHT CHC POPS THRU THE
NIGHT EVERYWHERE...BUT THESE COULD VERY WELL BE OVERDONE...WITH THE
PCPN TAPERING OFF SOONER. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS THURS NIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT...STILL IN THE 60S THOUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC TROFFING WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY FRI MRNG. ANY THERMAL
DISCONTINUITY WUD HV WASHED OUT BY THEN...AND MID LVL HGTS START TO
RISE ONCE AGN. THE BERMUDA HIGH TYPE SYNOP PTTN WL BE RETURNING IN
RELATIVELY WK SFC FLOW. WL ONCE AGN HV THE RISK FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRA/TSTMS...BUT SUPPORT FOR NMRS OR MATURE STORMS SEEMS TO BE
LACKING. HV POPS NO HIER THAN CHC...INITIATING IN THE HIER TRRN BY
MID AFTN AND MIGRATING TWD THE COAST. HWVR...THE LOSS OF SUNSHINE
SHUD SPELL THEIR DEMISE...AND POPS ALONG THE WRN SHORE OF THE BAY WL
END UP LWR THAN INLAND AREAS. MAXT WL BE A CPL DEGF LWR THAN THU. WL
BE KEEPING MIN-T IN THE MID-UPR 60S DUE TO DEBRIS CLDS. THAT CUD
POTENTIALLY END UP BEING A PINCH TOO WARM BASED ON PROJECTED DEWPTS.

A STRONGER CDFNT WL SLOWLY MARCH TWD THE AREA THIS WKND. WL BE IN
THE SW FLOW AHD OF FNT SAT...W/ GREATER INSTABILITY BEING PULLED NWD
AHD OF BNDRY. THE INSTBY AXIS WL REMAIN W OF THE MTNS...WHICH IS
WHERE THE HIEST POPS WL BE PLACED /AIDED BY OROGRAPHIC LIFT/. IN
ADDITION...SAT HAS THE BEST CHC AT REACHING 90F. FOR NOW WL BE
HOLDING MAXT JUST SHY OF THAT.

THE FNT WL BE DRAGGED ACRS AREA ON SUNDAY...W/ NRN STREAM LOPRES
HEADING TWD THE CNDN MARITIMES. THAT WL MAKE THE ORIENTATION OF THE
FNT MORE PERPENDICULAR TO UPR FLOW. EXACT TIMING STILL A BIT UP IN
THE AIR...BUT RAFL RATES WL BE A CONCERN SINCE PWAT WL BE NEAR 2
INCHES. HV LKLY POPS AND SLGTLY LWR TEMPS.

IN A PTTN SUCH AS THIS...ITS ALWAYS QSTNBL HOW FAR S FNT WL MAKE IT
BEFORE STALLING/WASHING OUT. HV COOLER AIR IN FCST FOR MON-TUE...BUT
AM NOT SURE WHETHER FOCUS FOR STORMS WL COMPLETELY PUSH THROUGH.
THEREFORE...HV CHC POPS THRU XTNDD FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD. PSBL MVFR CIGS
AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING WITH CIGS AROUND 2KFT CURRENTLY NOTED JUST
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. ANY MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT BY
14/15Z...WITH SCT CU AND BKN-OVC MID LVL DECK THEN EXPECTED.

MOD CONFIDENCE ON THE PCPN TIMING...COULD SEE +/- 1-2 HRS. WHILE
CURRENTLY HAVE VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE VCTS MENTION...CANNOT RULE
OUT MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WITH ANY STRONGER TSTM...ESP
DC/BALTIMORE METRO TAF SITES. SOME STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE
GUSTY-STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS BRIEFLY.

PCPN TAPERS OFF THIS EVENING...WITH DRY WX THEN TONIGHT. ANOTHER
ROUND OF PCPN WILL BE PSBL ON THURS...BRINGING YET ANOTHER CHC FOR
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

WINDS GENERALLY SLY TODAY 8-10 KTS...BCMG LESS THAN 5 KTS TONIGHT.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW TOMORROW...THOUGH STILL REMAINING LESS THAN 5
KTS.

CHC OF SHOWERS/STORMS EXIST EACH DAY IN THE OUTLOOK...SPCLY
DURING THE AFTN/EVE HRS. BEST CHC FOR STORMS WL BE ON SUNDAY. LCL
FLGT RESTRICTIONS TO IFR OR LWR EXIST INVOF STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...

SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT THE UPPER TIDAL
POTOMAC. HAVE ADDED THE UPPER ZONE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY FOR THIS
AFTN TO ACCOUNT FOR SLY CHANNELING. FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
TONIGHT...ONLY KEEPING THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY ZONE...WITH
SUB- SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS BY THURS
MORNING...LASTING THRU THURS NIGHT.

TSTMS EXPECTED THIS AFTN COULD BRING PERIOD OF GUSTY TO STRONG
WINDS.

WINDS WL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE ELY FRI...BUT S/SWLY FLOW WL REASSERT
ITSELF BY AFTN-EVNG...CONTG THRU SAT. CHANNELING WL COME CLOSE TO
SCA BY FRI EVNG...BUT THINK THAT SAT AFTN-EVE HAS A BETTER SCA RISK.
CDFNT WL SAG ACRS AREA SUNDAY...MAKING FOR NMRS TSRA.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ531>533-
     537>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ534-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ530.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...SEARS/HTS
MARINE...SEARS/HTS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 270755
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
355 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING WARM HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
THURSDAY BUT WASH OUT BEFORE IT MAKES IT THROUGH. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAIN STORY TODAY WILL BE THE INCRSG LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS BY THIS AFTN/EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR
STORMS...MAINLY EAST OF A HAGERSTOWN TO DC TO SOUTHERN MD LINE.

REGION REMAINS PLACED UNDER PERSISTING UPPER LVL RIDGE TODAY WHILE
AN UPPER LVL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND APPROACHES THE
AREA BY TONIGHT. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED
OFFSHORE...THOUGH WILL WEAKEN ITS HOLD ON THE AREA THIS AFTN WITH
THE FORMATION OF A LEE TROUGH EXPECTED BY THIS AFTN. WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDING THE RIDGE THIS MORNING IS RESULTING IN ON GOING CONVECTION
OVER THE EASTERN OH RIVER VALLEY AS NOTED ON 07Z WATER VAPOR.
EXPECTING THIS PCPN TO REACH THE FAR WESTERN AREAS NEAR DAYBREAK
THIS MORNING. MAINLY SHOWERS THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISO TSTM
INITIALLY.

INCRSG COVERAGE IN THE CONVECTION BY MIDDAY. THE QUESTION THE PAST
FEW DAYS HAD BEEN HOW UNSTABLE THE ATMO WOULD BECOME THIS AFTN...AND
AS A RESULT WHAT WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER TO SVR TSTMS.
WHILE SHEAR HAS STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY ON THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS...GENERALLY AROUND 20-25 KTS...INSTABILITY REMAINS THE BIGGER
PLAYER IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE STRONGER STORMS FOR TODAY. AXIS OF
HIGHEST INSTABILITY ALIGNS ALONG THE LEE SFC TROUGH THIS AFTN...WITH
THE THINKING THAT A THINNER LAYER OF CLOUDS WILL SET UP OVER THE
EASTERN AREAS...LEADING TO BETTER DIURNAL HEATING. THE NAM...WITH
THE TYPICAL HIGHER DEW PTS...HAS THE MUCH HIGHER SBCAPE VALUES...ABV
2000 J/KG FOR INSTANCE AT DCA. BUT EVEN THE GFS IS SHOWING AROUND
1000 J/KG...SO EVEN BEING CONSERVATIVE THERE IS A GOOD AMT
INSTABILITY. GENERALLY THINKING THAT WITH THE NEAR UNIDIRECTIONAL
WIND FLOW...WILL SEE DEVELOPMENT OF A LINE OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL MD
MIDDAY UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. AS THE LINE PUSHES
EAST...EXPECTING IT TO HIT THE LEE TROUGH ALIGNED JUST EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND THOUGH LACKING ON THE SHEAR...THE INSTABILITY WILL
BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER STRONGER TO POSSIBLY EMBEDDED SVR STORMS. WITH
THE LACK OF SHEAR...EXPECTING GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS TO BE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.

BY THIS EVENING...WITH LOSS OF SFC BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY...
EXPECTING THE PCPN TO TAPER OFF...WITH AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE BCMG DRY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...AND EVERYWHERE
ELSE BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 IN THE MAIN METRO AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ANOTHER DAY WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS AS SFC LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST...DRAGGING ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION BY THURS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE SFC
HIGH AND UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL WORK TO STALL THE PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT...WITH IT BCMG NEARLY STATIONARY FOR MOST OF THURS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...EVENTUALLY WEAKENING BY THURS
NIGHT. THIS SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE THE TRIGGER MECHANISM FOR
ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY AS THE ATMO BECOMES DECENTLY UNSTABLE YET
AGAIN WITH TEMPS PUSHING WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEW PTS PERSISTING
IN THE 60S. WHILE THE INSTABILITY WONT BE NEAR THE LVLS AS
TODAY...EXPECTING A BUT MORE SHEAR OVER THE AREA TO AID IN TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. OVERALL SVR PARAMETERS ON THE WEAKER SIDE...AND WITH
A LACKING OF UPPER LVL SUPPORT AS THE BETTER FORCING REMAINS NORTH
OF THE AREA...NOT ANTICIPATING SVR OR EVEN STRONGER TSTM
DEVELOPMENT.

AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES THURS NIGHT...ALONG WITH ANY
DAYTIME RESULTING INSTABILITY...PCPN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. HAVE MAINTAINED AT LEAST SLIGHT CHC POPS THRU THE
NIGHT EVERYWHERE...BUT THESE COULD VERY WELL BE OVERDONE...WITH THE
PCPN TAPERING OFF SOONER. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS THURS NIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT...STILL IN THE 60S THOUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC TROFFING WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY FRI MRNG. ANY THERMAL
DISCONTINUITY WUD HV WASHED OUT BY THEN...AND MID LVL HGTS START TO
RISE ONCE AGN. THE BERMUDA HIGH TYPE SYNOP PTTN WL BE RETURNING IN
RELATIVELY WK SFC FLOW. WL ONCE AGN HV THE RISK FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRA/TSTMS...BUT SUPPORT FOR NMRS OR MATURE STORMS SEEMS TO BE
LACKING. HV POPS NO HIER THAN CHC...INITIATING IN THE HIER TRRN BY
MID AFTN AND MIGRATING TWD THE COAST. HWVR...THE LOSS OF SUNSHINE
SHUD SPELL THEIR DEMISE...AND POPS ALONG THE WRN SHORE OF THE BAY WL
END UP LWR THAN INLAND AREAS. MAXT WL BE A CPL DEGF LWR THAN THU. WL
BE KEEPING MIN-T IN THE MID-UPR 60S DUE TO DEBRIS CLDS. THAT CUD
POTENTIALLY END UP BEING A PINCH TOO WARM BASED ON PROJECTED DEWPTS.

A STRONGER CDFNT WL SLOWLY MARCH TWD THE AREA THIS WKND. WL BE IN
THE SW FLOW AHD OF FNT SAT...W/ GREATER INSTABILITY BEING PULLED NWD
AHD OF BNDRY. THE INSTBY AXIS WL REMAIN W OF THE MTNS...WHICH IS
WHERE THE HIEST POPS WL BE PLACED /AIDED BY OROGRAPHIC LIFT/. IN
ADDITION...SAT HAS THE BEST CHC AT REACHING 90F. FOR NOW WL BE
HOLDING MAXT JUST SHY OF THAT.

THE FNT WL BE DRAGGED ACRS AREA ON SUNDAY...W/ NRN STREAM LOPRES
HEADING TWD THE CNDN MARITIMES. THAT WL MAKE THE ORIENTATION OF THE
FNT MORE PERPENDICULAR TO UPR FLOW. EXACT TIMING STILL A BIT UP IN
THE AIR...BUT RAFL RATES WL BE A CONCERN SINCE PWAT WL BE NEAR 2
INCHES. HV LKLY POPS AND SLGTLY LWR TEMPS.

IN A PTTN SUCH AS THIS...ITS ALWAYS QSTNBL HOW FAR S FNT WL MAKE IT
BEFORE STALLING/WASHING OUT. HV COOLER AIR IN FCST FOR MON-TUE...BUT
AM NOT SURE WHETHER FOCUS FOR STORMS WL COMPLETELY PUSH THROUGH.
THEREFORE...HV CHC POPS THRU XTNDD FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD. PSBL MVFR CIGS
AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING WITH CIGS AROUND 2KFT CURRENTLY NOTED JUST
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. ANY MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT BY
14/15Z...WITH SCT CU AND BKN-OVC MID LVL DECK THEN EXPECTED.

MOD CONFIDENCE ON THE PCPN TIMING...COULD SEE +/- 1-2 HRS. WHILE
CURRENTLY HAVE VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE VCTS MENTION...CANNOT RULE
OUT MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WITH ANY STRONGER TSTM...ESP
DC/BALTIMORE METRO TAF SITES. SOME STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE
GUSTY-STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS BRIEFLY.

PCPN TAPERS OFF THIS EVENING...WITH DRY WX THEN TONIGHT. ANOTHER
ROUND OF PCPN WILL BE PSBL ON THURS...BRINGING YET ANOTHER CHC FOR
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

WINDS GENERALLY SLY TODAY 8-10 KTS...BCMG LESS THAN 5 KTS TONIGHT.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW TOMORROW...THOUGH STILL REMAINING LESS THAN 5
KTS.

CHC OF SHOWERS/STORMS EXIST EACH DAY IN THE OUTLOOK...SPCLY
DURING THE AFTN/EVE HRS. BEST CHC FOR STORMS WL BE ON SUNDAY. LCL
FLGT RESTRICTIONS TO IFR OR LWR EXIST INVOF STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...

SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT THE UPPER TIDAL
POTOMAC. HAVE ADDED THE UPPER ZONE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY FOR THIS
AFTN TO ACCOUNT FOR SLY CHANNELING. FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
TONIGHT...ONLY KEEPING THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY ZONE...WITH
SUB- SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS BY THURS
MORNING...LASTING THRU THURS NIGHT.

TSTMS EXPECTED THIS AFTN COULD BRING PERIOD OF GUSTY TO STRONG
WINDS.

WINDS WL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE ELY FRI...BUT S/SWLY FLOW WL REASSERT
ITSELF BY AFTN-EVNG...CONTG THRU SAT. CHANNELING WL COME CLOSE TO
SCA BY FRI EVNG...BUT THINK THAT SAT AFTN-EVE HAS A BETTER SCA RISK.
CDFNT WL SAG ACRS AREA SUNDAY...MAKING FOR NMRS TSRA.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ531>533-
     537>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ534-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ530.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...SEARS/HTS
MARINE...SEARS/HTS



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270751
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
351 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY...WITH INCREASING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS. THUNDER HAS ALL BUT CEASED WITH THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY.
EASTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION IS SLOW...SO STILL EXPECT RAIN TO
LINGER ALONG THE RIDGES PAST SUNRISE. THE EXIT OF THE SHORTWAVE
WILL THEN ALLOW FOR A RELATIVE LULL IN ACTIVITY FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH KEPT A LOW CHANCE ALONG THE RIDGES
AS A WEAK LOBE OF VORTICITY LINGERS. ALTHOUGH SOME INSTABILITY
BUILDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE LACK OF A TRIGGER SUGGESTS
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION AT BEST WEST OF THE RIDGES.

A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE IN MICHIGAN LATER TODAY...AND
THEN BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT AS IT CROSSES THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. ACCOMPANYING SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LIKEWISE BE FADING AS
IT APPROACHES. HAVE SKIMMED LIKELY POPS ALONG THE NORTHWEST
FRINGE OF CWA...CLOSER TO SHORTWAVE. SPC HAS ANOTHER SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS IN THIS AREA. EXPECT SOMETHING SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. WHILE BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LIE TO THE
WEST...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT LOCATIONS LIKE ZZV AND PHD SUGGEST THAT
AROUND 1000 J/KG OF CAPE MAY COMBINE WITH 30-40 KNOTS OF MIDLEVEL
FLOW...ALLOWING FOR A FEW STORMS WITH STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. LESSER RISK TO THE EAST...WHERE CHANCE POPS ARE MAINTAINED
WITH LESS POTENTIAL LIFT. ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY DIE DOWN
AFTER 06Z WITH LOSS OF SUPPORT FROM EXITING SHORTWAVE.

GOING TEMPERATURES WERE VERY CLOSE TO A GUIDANCE CONSENSUS...AND
ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS.  CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING WITH
BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT RESULTING IN A DRYING TREND FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST BY MIDDAY
FRIDAY ALLOWING DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO KICK IN. THIS...AND
INCREASED SUNSHINE WILL FUEL TEMPERATURES PUSHING WELL INTO THE
80S...AT LEAST 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN NORMAL.

THE DRY WEATHER FADES AWAY QUICKLY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES...SOUTHERLY MOISTURE WILL FEED SATURDAY AFTERNOON
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL STILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL...BUT THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM MAY KEEP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN
FRIDAYS MARKS.  TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLEARS A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT MEETS RESISTANCE CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS.
WITH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ACROSS LONG-RANGE MODELS...DECIDED TO
TAKE THE SLOWER FRONTAL PROGRESSION...ULTIMATELY LINGERING RAIN
CHANCES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...SOME
RELIEF FROM THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL COME SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS A DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS TO THE NORTH. HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEK...LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE HAD MAJOR DIFFERENCES WITH THE
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. THE LATEST
00Z GFS HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ITS ECMWF AND GFS
ENSEMBLE BRETHREN...KEEPING THE RETURN OF MOISTURE SUPPRESSED
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. HAVE LOWERED MONDAY AND TUESDAY
POPS TO REFLECT THIS. AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE COAST TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THE ENHANCED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN
BRING WARM AND WET BACK INTO THE FORECAST.  TAX

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CURRENTLY...WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES IN
SHRA AND DYING TSRA. THESE WILL PULL ACROSS THE RIDGES TOWARDS
SUNRISE. BEHIND THE RAIN...SOME MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED
WITH FOG. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT INTO A VFR CU DECK BY MIDDAY. ANY
DAYTIME SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BE QUITE SPOTTY AND DID NOT INCLUDE IN
TAF AT THIS TIME. NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AFTER 00Z...WITH MORE
RAIN ARRIVING FROM WEST TO EAST. KEPT VFR FOR NOW BUT BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IS INDICATED AS PRECIP CHANCES DECLINE
THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...PRECIP...AND RESTRICTION CHANCES WILL
AGAIN INCREASE WITH AN ENCROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270559
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
159 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO
THE WEEKEND. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OFFSHORE RIDGE DOMINATES OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER BY MORNING. WARM AND HUMID WITH LOWS 65-70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OFFSHORE BERMUDA RIDGE CONTINUES THE SUMMER HEAT/HUMIDITY THRU
THE PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A PERSISTENT TROF WHICH WHEN
COMBINED WITH THE APPRCHG MSTR FROM THE WSW WILL LIKELY BE THE
TRIGGER FOR SCT CONVECTION. TIMING RATHER PROBLEMATIC GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE OF S/W ENERGY EJECTING NE FROM DSPTG MCS`S....BUT THE
EMPHASIS OF THIS FCST WILL BE FOR MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION EACH DAY. HIGHEST POPS (40-50%) WILL BE ACROSS THE NWRN
THIRD OF FA...20-30% REST OF FA XPCT THE NE CORNER OF NC WHERE LTL
IF ANY SUPPORT SEEN FOR PCPN. THREAT WILL BE FOR LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS
GIVEN THE PW`S AOA 1.5 INCHES...DP TMPS IN THE 60S AND RELATIVELY
WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE L-M80S...XCPT 70S AT
THE BEACHES. LOWS 65-70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF SAT WITH AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE BREAKING
DOWN OVER THE ERN SEABOARD AS A COLD FRNT DROPS INTO THE MED ATLC
REGION. THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES AMONGST MODELS IN REGARDS
TO WHEN THE FRNT MAKES IT INTO THE LOCAL AREA WHICH WOULD AFFECT
TIMING OF PCPN...WITH THE 12Z GFS FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECWMF. FOR
NOW WITH THIS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT WILL FORECAST 20-30% POPS SAT
INCREASING TO 30-50% SUN WITH THE FRNT IN THE VICINITY. EXPECT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BOTH DAYS WITH HIGHS AVGG IN THE MID TO UPR
80S. CHANCE OF RAIN CONTINUES INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS NOT
QUITE AS WARM AS THE WEEKEND...HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR
80S ON AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...AS LOW PRESSURE LOCATES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
RESULT IS A S-SW WIND 5-15 KT...STRONGEST NEAR THE COAST. LATEST
SATELLITE INDICATES BKN-OVC MVFR DECK (1500-2000 FT AGL)
EXPANDING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VA. MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE SPREAD NWD
INTO KRIC. ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN TANDEM WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN THE CONTINUED EXPANSION OF THIS
CLOUD DECK...BUT DUE TO SUB-CLOUD LAYER MIXING...DO NOT ANTICIPATE
IFR CIGS LIKE SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES. COMBINATION OF CLOUD
COVER...MIXING AND RELATIVELY DRY SOILS WILL INHIBIT FOG
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT MVFR DECK TO ERODE BY MID-MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. S-SW WINDS OF 10-15 KT PERSIST
TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. ISOLATED-WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z...MAINLY OVER
THE PIEDMONT INTO CENTRAL VA.

HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES INTO THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA ISSUED THIS MORNG FOR THE BAY CONTINUES THRU THIS EVENG. WITH A
SIMILAR PATTERN AS YESTERDAY WHICH HAD FREQUENT GUSTS TO 20 KT
EXPECT S WINDS TO PICK UP TO 15-20 KT LATER THIS AFTN AND EVENG. SUB-
SCA CONDS OVER THE OTHER WTRS WITH 15-20 KT WINDS OVER CSTL WTRS AND
10-15 KT OVER THE RIVERS AND SOUND. S FLOW CONTINUES INTO WED WITH
STRONG SFC HI PRES OFFSHORE. EXPECT SIMILAR WINDS AS TDA WITH WAVES
OVER THE BAY AT 2-3 FT AND SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS AT 2-4 FT. PRES
GRADIENT WEAKENS A BIT ON THU...AND WINDS SHOULD BE A FEW KT LESS
OVERALL. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN SLY AVGG 10-15 KT FOR THE MOST PART
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...MAS/LSA




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270559
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
159 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO
THE WEEKEND. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OFFSHORE RIDGE DOMINATES OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER BY MORNING. WARM AND HUMID WITH LOWS 65-70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OFFSHORE BERMUDA RIDGE CONTINUES THE SUMMER HEAT/HUMIDITY THRU
THE PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A PERSISTENT TROF WHICH WHEN
COMBINED WITH THE APPRCHG MSTR FROM THE WSW WILL LIKELY BE THE
TRIGGER FOR SCT CONVECTION. TIMING RATHER PROBLEMATIC GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE OF S/W ENERGY EJECTING NE FROM DSPTG MCS`S....BUT THE
EMPHASIS OF THIS FCST WILL BE FOR MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION EACH DAY. HIGHEST POPS (40-50%) WILL BE ACROSS THE NWRN
THIRD OF FA...20-30% REST OF FA XPCT THE NE CORNER OF NC WHERE LTL
IF ANY SUPPORT SEEN FOR PCPN. THREAT WILL BE FOR LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS
GIVEN THE PW`S AOA 1.5 INCHES...DP TMPS IN THE 60S AND RELATIVELY
WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE L-M80S...XCPT 70S AT
THE BEACHES. LOWS 65-70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF SAT WITH AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE BREAKING
DOWN OVER THE ERN SEABOARD AS A COLD FRNT DROPS INTO THE MED ATLC
REGION. THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES AMONGST MODELS IN REGARDS
TO WHEN THE FRNT MAKES IT INTO THE LOCAL AREA WHICH WOULD AFFECT
TIMING OF PCPN...WITH THE 12Z GFS FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECWMF. FOR
NOW WITH THIS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT WILL FORECAST 20-30% POPS SAT
INCREASING TO 30-50% SUN WITH THE FRNT IN THE VICINITY. EXPECT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BOTH DAYS WITH HIGHS AVGG IN THE MID TO UPR
80S. CHANCE OF RAIN CONTINUES INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS NOT
QUITE AS WARM AS THE WEEKEND...HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR
80S ON AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...AS LOW PRESSURE LOCATES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
RESULT IS A S-SW WIND 5-15 KT...STRONGEST NEAR THE COAST. LATEST
SATELLITE INDICATES BKN-OVC MVFR DECK (1500-2000 FT AGL)
EXPANDING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VA. MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE SPREAD NWD
INTO KRIC. ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN TANDEM WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN THE CONTINUED EXPANSION OF THIS
CLOUD DECK...BUT DUE TO SUB-CLOUD LAYER MIXING...DO NOT ANTICIPATE
IFR CIGS LIKE SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES. COMBINATION OF CLOUD
COVER...MIXING AND RELATIVELY DRY SOILS WILL INHIBIT FOG
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT MVFR DECK TO ERODE BY MID-MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. S-SW WINDS OF 10-15 KT PERSIST
TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. ISOLATED-WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z...MAINLY OVER
THE PIEDMONT INTO CENTRAL VA.

HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES INTO THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA ISSUED THIS MORNG FOR THE BAY CONTINUES THRU THIS EVENG. WITH A
SIMILAR PATTERN AS YESTERDAY WHICH HAD FREQUENT GUSTS TO 20 KT
EXPECT S WINDS TO PICK UP TO 15-20 KT LATER THIS AFTN AND EVENG. SUB-
SCA CONDS OVER THE OTHER WTRS WITH 15-20 KT WINDS OVER CSTL WTRS AND
10-15 KT OVER THE RIVERS AND SOUND. S FLOW CONTINUES INTO WED WITH
STRONG SFC HI PRES OFFSHORE. EXPECT SIMILAR WINDS AS TDA WITH WAVES
OVER THE BAY AT 2-3 FT AND SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS AT 2-4 FT. PRES
GRADIENT WEAKENS A BIT ON THU...AND WINDS SHOULD BE A FEW KT LESS
OVERALL. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN SLY AVGG 10-15 KT FOR THE MOST PART
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...MAS/LSA



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270559
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
159 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO
THE WEEKEND. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OFFSHORE RIDGE DOMINATES OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER BY MORNING. WARM AND HUMID WITH LOWS 65-70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OFFSHORE BERMUDA RIDGE CONTINUES THE SUMMER HEAT/HUMIDITY THRU
THE PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A PERSISTENT TROF WHICH WHEN
COMBINED WITH THE APPRCHG MSTR FROM THE WSW WILL LIKELY BE THE
TRIGGER FOR SCT CONVECTION. TIMING RATHER PROBLEMATIC GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE OF S/W ENERGY EJECTING NE FROM DSPTG MCS`S....BUT THE
EMPHASIS OF THIS FCST WILL BE FOR MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION EACH DAY. HIGHEST POPS (40-50%) WILL BE ACROSS THE NWRN
THIRD OF FA...20-30% REST OF FA XPCT THE NE CORNER OF NC WHERE LTL
IF ANY SUPPORT SEEN FOR PCPN. THREAT WILL BE FOR LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS
GIVEN THE PW`S AOA 1.5 INCHES...DP TMPS IN THE 60S AND RELATIVELY
WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE L-M80S...XCPT 70S AT
THE BEACHES. LOWS 65-70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF SAT WITH AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE BREAKING
DOWN OVER THE ERN SEABOARD AS A COLD FRNT DROPS INTO THE MED ATLC
REGION. THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES AMONGST MODELS IN REGARDS
TO WHEN THE FRNT MAKES IT INTO THE LOCAL AREA WHICH WOULD AFFECT
TIMING OF PCPN...WITH THE 12Z GFS FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECWMF. FOR
NOW WITH THIS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT WILL FORECAST 20-30% POPS SAT
INCREASING TO 30-50% SUN WITH THE FRNT IN THE VICINITY. EXPECT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BOTH DAYS WITH HIGHS AVGG IN THE MID TO UPR
80S. CHANCE OF RAIN CONTINUES INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS NOT
QUITE AS WARM AS THE WEEKEND...HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR
80S ON AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...AS LOW PRESSURE LOCATES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
RESULT IS A S-SW WIND 5-15 KT...STRONGEST NEAR THE COAST. LATEST
SATELLITE INDICATES BKN-OVC MVFR DECK (1500-2000 FT AGL)
EXPANDING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VA. MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE SPREAD NWD
INTO KRIC. ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN TANDEM WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN THE CONTINUED EXPANSION OF THIS
CLOUD DECK...BUT DUE TO SUB-CLOUD LAYER MIXING...DO NOT ANTICIPATE
IFR CIGS LIKE SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES. COMBINATION OF CLOUD
COVER...MIXING AND RELATIVELY DRY SOILS WILL INHIBIT FOG
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT MVFR DECK TO ERODE BY MID-MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. S-SW WINDS OF 10-15 KT PERSIST
TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. ISOLATED-WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z...MAINLY OVER
THE PIEDMONT INTO CENTRAL VA.

HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES INTO THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA ISSUED THIS MORNG FOR THE BAY CONTINUES THRU THIS EVENG. WITH A
SIMILAR PATTERN AS YESTERDAY WHICH HAD FREQUENT GUSTS TO 20 KT
EXPECT S WINDS TO PICK UP TO 15-20 KT LATER THIS AFTN AND EVENG. SUB-
SCA CONDS OVER THE OTHER WTRS WITH 15-20 KT WINDS OVER CSTL WTRS AND
10-15 KT OVER THE RIVERS AND SOUND. S FLOW CONTINUES INTO WED WITH
STRONG SFC HI PRES OFFSHORE. EXPECT SIMILAR WINDS AS TDA WITH WAVES
OVER THE BAY AT 2-3 FT AND SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS AT 2-4 FT. PRES
GRADIENT WEAKENS A BIT ON THU...AND WINDS SHOULD BE A FEW KT LESS
OVERALL. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN SLY AVGG 10-15 KT FOR THE MOST PART
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...MAS/LSA




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270559
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
159 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO
THE WEEKEND. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OFFSHORE RIDGE DOMINATES OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER BY MORNING. WARM AND HUMID WITH LOWS 65-70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OFFSHORE BERMUDA RIDGE CONTINUES THE SUMMER HEAT/HUMIDITY THRU
THE PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A PERSISTENT TROF WHICH WHEN
COMBINED WITH THE APPRCHG MSTR FROM THE WSW WILL LIKELY BE THE
TRIGGER FOR SCT CONVECTION. TIMING RATHER PROBLEMATIC GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE OF S/W ENERGY EJECTING NE FROM DSPTG MCS`S....BUT THE
EMPHASIS OF THIS FCST WILL BE FOR MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION EACH DAY. HIGHEST POPS (40-50%) WILL BE ACROSS THE NWRN
THIRD OF FA...20-30% REST OF FA XPCT THE NE CORNER OF NC WHERE LTL
IF ANY SUPPORT SEEN FOR PCPN. THREAT WILL BE FOR LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS
GIVEN THE PW`S AOA 1.5 INCHES...DP TMPS IN THE 60S AND RELATIVELY
WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE L-M80S...XCPT 70S AT
THE BEACHES. LOWS 65-70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF SAT WITH AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE BREAKING
DOWN OVER THE ERN SEABOARD AS A COLD FRNT DROPS INTO THE MED ATLC
REGION. THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES AMONGST MODELS IN REGARDS
TO WHEN THE FRNT MAKES IT INTO THE LOCAL AREA WHICH WOULD AFFECT
TIMING OF PCPN...WITH THE 12Z GFS FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECWMF. FOR
NOW WITH THIS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT WILL FORECAST 20-30% POPS SAT
INCREASING TO 30-50% SUN WITH THE FRNT IN THE VICINITY. EXPECT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BOTH DAYS WITH HIGHS AVGG IN THE MID TO UPR
80S. CHANCE OF RAIN CONTINUES INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS NOT
QUITE AS WARM AS THE WEEKEND...HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR
80S ON AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...AS LOW PRESSURE LOCATES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
RESULT IS A S-SW WIND 5-15 KT...STRONGEST NEAR THE COAST. LATEST
SATELLITE INDICATES BKN-OVC MVFR DECK (1500-2000 FT AGL)
EXPANDING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VA. MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE SPREAD NWD
INTO KRIC. ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN TANDEM WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN THE CONTINUED EXPANSION OF THIS
CLOUD DECK...BUT DUE TO SUB-CLOUD LAYER MIXING...DO NOT ANTICIPATE
IFR CIGS LIKE SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES. COMBINATION OF CLOUD
COVER...MIXING AND RELATIVELY DRY SOILS WILL INHIBIT FOG
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT MVFR DECK TO ERODE BY MID-MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. S-SW WINDS OF 10-15 KT PERSIST
TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. ISOLATED-WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z...MAINLY OVER
THE PIEDMONT INTO CENTRAL VA.

HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES INTO THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA ISSUED THIS MORNG FOR THE BAY CONTINUES THRU THIS EVENG. WITH A
SIMILAR PATTERN AS YESTERDAY WHICH HAD FREQUENT GUSTS TO 20 KT
EXPECT S WINDS TO PICK UP TO 15-20 KT LATER THIS AFTN AND EVENG. SUB-
SCA CONDS OVER THE OTHER WTRS WITH 15-20 KT WINDS OVER CSTL WTRS AND
10-15 KT OVER THE RIVERS AND SOUND. S FLOW CONTINUES INTO WED WITH
STRONG SFC HI PRES OFFSHORE. EXPECT SIMILAR WINDS AS TDA WITH WAVES
OVER THE BAY AT 2-3 FT AND SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS AT 2-4 FT. PRES
GRADIENT WEAKENS A BIT ON THU...AND WINDS SHOULD BE A FEW KT LESS
OVERALL. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN SLY AVGG 10-15 KT FOR THE MOST PART
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...MAS/LSA



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270543
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
143 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH
PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WITH UNIMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN
FAIRLY NOMINAL...WITH NO REPORTS OF ANYTHING EVEN APPROACHING
SEVERE. AS THE NIGHT ENSUES...AND INSTABILITY REMAINED MODEST AT
BEST...DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE FUELED BY AN INCREASE IN MID-
LEVEL RH VALUES AND INCREASED SHEAR. THIS IS UNLIKELY TO RESULT IN
MUCH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL
BE LIKELY TO CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA. MORE ORGANIZED SHEAR LOOKS TO HOLD BACK FOR THE
MAIN LONG WAVE TROUGH CROSSING ON WEDNESDAY.

INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA AS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ENCROACHES WILL LIKELY KEEP A FLOOR UNDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
LOWS WILL STAY LARGELY WELL INTO THE 60S. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO EXIT THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...THOUGH MARGINAL SHEAR VALUES SHOULD HELP
LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

RIDGING LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY WEATHER. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VARIOUS LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS AGREE ON STUBBORN BOUNDARY LAID
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE CHANCE
POPS WERE PRESERVED WITH THE SUPPORT OF A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER
OVER THE OUTCOME OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST IN
TERMS OF MAGNITUDE...POSITION...AND TIMING. THEREFORE PERSISTENCE
WAS HEAVILY USED IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AND LOW CHANCE
POPS WERE INTRODUCED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CURRENTLY...WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES IN
SHRA AND DYING TSRA. THESE WILL PULL ACROSS THE RIDGES TOWARDS
SUNRISE. BEHIND THE RAIN...SOME MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED
WITH FOG. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT INTO A VFR CU DECK BY MIDDAY. ANY
DAYTIME SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BE QUITE SPOTTY AND DID NOT INCLUDE IN
TAF AT THIS TIME. NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AFTER 00Z...WITH MORE
RAIN ARRIVING FROM WEST TO EAST. KEPT VFR FOR NOW BUT BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IS INDICATED AS PRECIP CHANCES DECLINE
THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...PRECIP...AND RESTRICTION CHANCES WILL
AGAIN INCREASE WITH AN ENCROACING FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270543
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
143 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH
PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WITH UNIMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN
FAIRLY NOMINAL...WITH NO REPORTS OF ANYTHING EVEN APPROACHING
SEVERE. AS THE NIGHT ENSUES...AND INSTABILITY REMAINED MODEST AT
BEST...DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE FUELED BY AN INCREASE IN MID-
LEVEL RH VALUES AND INCREASED SHEAR. THIS IS UNLIKELY TO RESULT IN
MUCH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL
BE LIKELY TO CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA. MORE ORGANIZED SHEAR LOOKS TO HOLD BACK FOR THE
MAIN LONG WAVE TROUGH CROSSING ON WEDNESDAY.

INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA AS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ENCROACHES WILL LIKELY KEEP A FLOOR UNDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
LOWS WILL STAY LARGELY WELL INTO THE 60S. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO EXIT THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...THOUGH MARGINAL SHEAR VALUES SHOULD HELP
LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

RIDGING LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY WEATHER. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VARIOUS LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS AGREE ON STUBBORN BOUNDARY LAID
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE CHANCE
POPS WERE PRESERVED WITH THE SUPPORT OF A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER
OVER THE OUTCOME OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST IN
TERMS OF MAGNITUDE...POSITION...AND TIMING. THEREFORE PERSISTENCE
WAS HEAVILY USED IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AND LOW CHANCE
POPS WERE INTRODUCED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CURRENTLY...WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES IN
SHRA AND DYING TSRA. THESE WILL PULL ACROSS THE RIDGES TOWARDS
SUNRISE. BEHIND THE RAIN...SOME MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED
WITH FOG. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT INTO A VFR CU DECK BY MIDDAY. ANY
DAYTIME SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BE QUITE SPOTTY AND DID NOT INCLUDE IN
TAF AT THIS TIME. NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AFTER 00Z...WITH MORE
RAIN ARRIVING FROM WEST TO EAST. KEPT VFR FOR NOW BUT BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IS INDICATED AS PRECIP CHANCES DECLINE
THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...PRECIP...AND RESTRICTION CHANCES WILL
AGAIN INCREASE WITH AN ENCROACING FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270543
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
143 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH
PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WITH UNIMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN
FAIRLY NOMINAL...WITH NO REPORTS OF ANYTHING EVEN APPROACHING
SEVERE. AS THE NIGHT ENSUES...AND INSTABILITY REMAINED MODEST AT
BEST...DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE FUELED BY AN INCREASE IN MID-
LEVEL RH VALUES AND INCREASED SHEAR. THIS IS UNLIKELY TO RESULT IN
MUCH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL
BE LIKELY TO CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA. MORE ORGANIZED SHEAR LOOKS TO HOLD BACK FOR THE
MAIN LONG WAVE TROUGH CROSSING ON WEDNESDAY.

INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA AS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ENCROACHES WILL LIKELY KEEP A FLOOR UNDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
LOWS WILL STAY LARGELY WELL INTO THE 60S. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO EXIT THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...THOUGH MARGINAL SHEAR VALUES SHOULD HELP
LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

RIDGING LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY WEATHER. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VARIOUS LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS AGREE ON STUBBORN BOUNDARY LAID
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE CHANCE
POPS WERE PRESERVED WITH THE SUPPORT OF A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER
OVER THE OUTCOME OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST IN
TERMS OF MAGNITUDE...POSITION...AND TIMING. THEREFORE PERSISTENCE
WAS HEAVILY USED IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AND LOW CHANCE
POPS WERE INTRODUCED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CURRENTLY...WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES IN
SHRA AND DYING TSRA. THESE WILL PULL ACROSS THE RIDGES TOWARDS
SUNRISE. BEHIND THE RAIN...SOME MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED
WITH FOG. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT INTO A VFR CU DECK BY MIDDAY. ANY
DAYTIME SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BE QUITE SPOTTY AND DID NOT INCLUDE IN
TAF AT THIS TIME. NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AFTER 00Z...WITH MORE
RAIN ARRIVING FROM WEST TO EAST. KEPT VFR FOR NOW BUT BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IS INDICATED AS PRECIP CHANCES DECLINE
THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...PRECIP...AND RESTRICTION CHANCES WILL
AGAIN INCREASE WITH AN ENCROACING FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270543
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
143 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH
PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WITH UNIMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN
FAIRLY NOMINAL...WITH NO REPORTS OF ANYTHING EVEN APPROACHING
SEVERE. AS THE NIGHT ENSUES...AND INSTABILITY REMAINED MODEST AT
BEST...DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE FUELED BY AN INCREASE IN MID-
LEVEL RH VALUES AND INCREASED SHEAR. THIS IS UNLIKELY TO RESULT IN
MUCH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL
BE LIKELY TO CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA. MORE ORGANIZED SHEAR LOOKS TO HOLD BACK FOR THE
MAIN LONG WAVE TROUGH CROSSING ON WEDNESDAY.

INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA AS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ENCROACHES WILL LIKELY KEEP A FLOOR UNDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
LOWS WILL STAY LARGELY WELL INTO THE 60S. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO EXIT THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...THOUGH MARGINAL SHEAR VALUES SHOULD HELP
LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

RIDGING LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY WEATHER. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VARIOUS LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS AGREE ON STUBBORN BOUNDARY LAID
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE CHANCE
POPS WERE PRESERVED WITH THE SUPPORT OF A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER
OVER THE OUTCOME OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST IN
TERMS OF MAGNITUDE...POSITION...AND TIMING. THEREFORE PERSISTENCE
WAS HEAVILY USED IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AND LOW CHANCE
POPS WERE INTRODUCED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CURRENTLY...WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES IN
SHRA AND DYING TSRA. THESE WILL PULL ACROSS THE RIDGES TOWARDS
SUNRISE. BEHIND THE RAIN...SOME MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED
WITH FOG. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT INTO A VFR CU DECK BY MIDDAY. ANY
DAYTIME SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BE QUITE SPOTTY AND DID NOT INCLUDE IN
TAF AT THIS TIME. NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AFTER 00Z...WITH MORE
RAIN ARRIVING FROM WEST TO EAST. KEPT VFR FOR NOW BUT BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IS INDICATED AS PRECIP CHANCES DECLINE
THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...PRECIP...AND RESTRICTION CHANCES WILL
AGAIN INCREASE WITH AN ENCROACING FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270244
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1044 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO
THE WEEKEND. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
OFFSHORE RIDGE DOMINATES OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER BY MORNING. WARM AND HUMID WITH LOWS 65-70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OFFSHORE BERMUDA RIDGE CONTINUES THE SUMMER HEAT/HUMIDITY THRU
THE PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A PERSISTENT TROF WHICH WHEN
COMBINED WITH THE APPRCHG MSTR FROM THE WSW WILL LIKELY BE THE
TRIGGER FOR SCT CONVECTION. TIMING RATHER PROBLEMATIC GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE OF S/W ENERGY EJECTING NE FROM DSPTG MCS`S....BUT THE
EMPHASIS OF THIS FCST WILL BE FOR MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION EACH DAY. HIGHEST POPS (40-50%) WILL BE ACROSS THE NWRN
THIRD OF FA...20-30% REST OF FA XPCT THE NE CORNER OF NC WHERE LTL
IF ANY SUPPORT SEEN FOR PCPN. THREAT WILL BE FOR LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS
GIVEN THE PW`S AOA 1.5 INCHES...DP TMPS IN THE 60S AND RELATIVELY
WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE L-M80S...XCPT 70S AT
THE BEACHES. LOWS 65-70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF SAT WITH AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE BREAKING
DOWN OVER THE ERN SEABOARD AS A COLD FRNT DROPS INTO THE MED ATLC
REGION. THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES AMONGST MODELS IN REGARDS
TO WHEN THE FRNT MAKES IT INTO THE LOCAL AREA WHICH WOULD AFFECT
TIMING OF PCPN...WITH THE 12Z GFS FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECWMF. FOR
NOW WITH THIS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT WILL FORECAST 20-30% POPS SAT
INCREASING TO 30-50% SUN WITH THE FRNT IN THE VICINITY. EXPECT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BOTH DAYS WITH HIGHS AVGG IN THE MID TO UPR
80S. CHANCE OF RAIN CONTINUES INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS NOT
QUITE AS WARM AS THE WEEKEND...HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR
80S ON AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING S/SW
WINDS DURING THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. MOS OUTPUT AND NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUB VFR CONDS MAY OCCUR WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT
GUIDANCE IS RATHER INCONSISTENT. TAFS ARE BASED PRIMARILY ON
TRENDS OF THE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS WHICH EMPHASIZE MVFR CIGS. WITH
DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...WOULD EXPECT SOME PERIODS OF MVFR
VSBYS AS WELL...MAINLY BETWEEN 10 AND 15Z. CONVECTION WEDNESDAY
IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFT 18Z.

OUTLOOK...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE...BUT LATE
AFTN/EVENING TSTMS ARE EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY
WITH LESSER CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN
SUNDAY. OUTSIDE OF TSTMS... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL...SOME
MVFR AND PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE LIKELY FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND
SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA ISSUED THIS MORNG FOR THE BAY CONTINUES THRU THIS EVENG. WITH A
SIMILAR PATTERN AS YESTERDAY WHICH HAD FREQUENT GUSTS TO 20 KT
EXPECT S WINDS TO PICK UP TO 15-20 KT LATER THIS AFTN AND EVENG. SUB-
SCA CONDS OVER THE OTHER WTRS WITH 15-20 KT WINDS OVER CSTL WTRS AND
10-15 KT OVER THE RIVERS AND SOUND. S FLOW CONTINUES INTO WED WITH
STRONG SFC HI PRES OFFSHORE. EXPECT SIMILAR WINDS AS TDA WITH WAVES
OVER THE BAY AT 2-3 FT AND SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS AT 2-4 FT. PRES
GRADIENT WEAKENS A BIT ON THU...AND WINDS SHOULD BE A FEW KT LESS
OVERALL. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN SLY AVGG 10-15 KT FOR THE MOST PART
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...MAS/LSA




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270244
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1044 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO
THE WEEKEND. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
OFFSHORE RIDGE DOMINATES OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER BY MORNING. WARM AND HUMID WITH LOWS 65-70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OFFSHORE BERMUDA RIDGE CONTINUES THE SUMMER HEAT/HUMIDITY THRU
THE PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A PERSISTENT TROF WHICH WHEN
COMBINED WITH THE APPRCHG MSTR FROM THE WSW WILL LIKELY BE THE
TRIGGER FOR SCT CONVECTION. TIMING RATHER PROBLEMATIC GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE OF S/W ENERGY EJECTING NE FROM DSPTG MCS`S....BUT THE
EMPHASIS OF THIS FCST WILL BE FOR MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION EACH DAY. HIGHEST POPS (40-50%) WILL BE ACROSS THE NWRN
THIRD OF FA...20-30% REST OF FA XPCT THE NE CORNER OF NC WHERE LTL
IF ANY SUPPORT SEEN FOR PCPN. THREAT WILL BE FOR LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS
GIVEN THE PW`S AOA 1.5 INCHES...DP TMPS IN THE 60S AND RELATIVELY
WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE L-M80S...XCPT 70S AT
THE BEACHES. LOWS 65-70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF SAT WITH AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE BREAKING
DOWN OVER THE ERN SEABOARD AS A COLD FRNT DROPS INTO THE MED ATLC
REGION. THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES AMONGST MODELS IN REGARDS
TO WHEN THE FRNT MAKES IT INTO THE LOCAL AREA WHICH WOULD AFFECT
TIMING OF PCPN...WITH THE 12Z GFS FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECWMF. FOR
NOW WITH THIS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT WILL FORECAST 20-30% POPS SAT
INCREASING TO 30-50% SUN WITH THE FRNT IN THE VICINITY. EXPECT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BOTH DAYS WITH HIGHS AVGG IN THE MID TO UPR
80S. CHANCE OF RAIN CONTINUES INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS NOT
QUITE AS WARM AS THE WEEKEND...HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR
80S ON AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING S/SW
WINDS DURING THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. MOS OUTPUT AND NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUB VFR CONDS MAY OCCUR WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT
GUIDANCE IS RATHER INCONSISTENT. TAFS ARE BASED PRIMARILY ON
TRENDS OF THE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS WHICH EMPHASIZE MVFR CIGS. WITH
DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...WOULD EXPECT SOME PERIODS OF MVFR
VSBYS AS WELL...MAINLY BETWEEN 10 AND 15Z. CONVECTION WEDNESDAY
IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFT 18Z.

OUTLOOK...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE...BUT LATE
AFTN/EVENING TSTMS ARE EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY
WITH LESSER CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN
SUNDAY. OUTSIDE OF TSTMS... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL...SOME
MVFR AND PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE LIKELY FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND
SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA ISSUED THIS MORNG FOR THE BAY CONTINUES THRU THIS EVENG. WITH A
SIMILAR PATTERN AS YESTERDAY WHICH HAD FREQUENT GUSTS TO 20 KT
EXPECT S WINDS TO PICK UP TO 15-20 KT LATER THIS AFTN AND EVENG. SUB-
SCA CONDS OVER THE OTHER WTRS WITH 15-20 KT WINDS OVER CSTL WTRS AND
10-15 KT OVER THE RIVERS AND SOUND. S FLOW CONTINUES INTO WED WITH
STRONG SFC HI PRES OFFSHORE. EXPECT SIMILAR WINDS AS TDA WITH WAVES
OVER THE BAY AT 2-3 FT AND SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS AT 2-4 FT. PRES
GRADIENT WEAKENS A BIT ON THU...AND WINDS SHOULD BE A FEW KT LESS
OVERALL. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN SLY AVGG 10-15 KT FOR THE MOST PART
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...MAS/LSA



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270244
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1044 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO
THE WEEKEND. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
OFFSHORE RIDGE DOMINATES OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER BY MORNING. WARM AND HUMID WITH LOWS 65-70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OFFSHORE BERMUDA RIDGE CONTINUES THE SUMMER HEAT/HUMIDITY THRU
THE PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A PERSISTENT TROF WHICH WHEN
COMBINED WITH THE APPRCHG MSTR FROM THE WSW WILL LIKELY BE THE
TRIGGER FOR SCT CONVECTION. TIMING RATHER PROBLEMATIC GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE OF S/W ENERGY EJECTING NE FROM DSPTG MCS`S....BUT THE
EMPHASIS OF THIS FCST WILL BE FOR MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION EACH DAY. HIGHEST POPS (40-50%) WILL BE ACROSS THE NWRN
THIRD OF FA...20-30% REST OF FA XPCT THE NE CORNER OF NC WHERE LTL
IF ANY SUPPORT SEEN FOR PCPN. THREAT WILL BE FOR LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS
GIVEN THE PW`S AOA 1.5 INCHES...DP TMPS IN THE 60S AND RELATIVELY
WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE L-M80S...XCPT 70S AT
THE BEACHES. LOWS 65-70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF SAT WITH AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE BREAKING
DOWN OVER THE ERN SEABOARD AS A COLD FRNT DROPS INTO THE MED ATLC
REGION. THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES AMONGST MODELS IN REGARDS
TO WHEN THE FRNT MAKES IT INTO THE LOCAL AREA WHICH WOULD AFFECT
TIMING OF PCPN...WITH THE 12Z GFS FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECWMF. FOR
NOW WITH THIS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT WILL FORECAST 20-30% POPS SAT
INCREASING TO 30-50% SUN WITH THE FRNT IN THE VICINITY. EXPECT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BOTH DAYS WITH HIGHS AVGG IN THE MID TO UPR
80S. CHANCE OF RAIN CONTINUES INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS NOT
QUITE AS WARM AS THE WEEKEND...HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR
80S ON AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING S/SW
WINDS DURING THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. MOS OUTPUT AND NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUB VFR CONDS MAY OCCUR WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT
GUIDANCE IS RATHER INCONSISTENT. TAFS ARE BASED PRIMARILY ON
TRENDS OF THE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS WHICH EMPHASIZE MVFR CIGS. WITH
DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...WOULD EXPECT SOME PERIODS OF MVFR
VSBYS AS WELL...MAINLY BETWEEN 10 AND 15Z. CONVECTION WEDNESDAY
IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFT 18Z.

OUTLOOK...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE...BUT LATE
AFTN/EVENING TSTMS ARE EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY
WITH LESSER CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN
SUNDAY. OUTSIDE OF TSTMS... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL...SOME
MVFR AND PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE LIKELY FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND
SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA ISSUED THIS MORNG FOR THE BAY CONTINUES THRU THIS EVENG. WITH A
SIMILAR PATTERN AS YESTERDAY WHICH HAD FREQUENT GUSTS TO 20 KT
EXPECT S WINDS TO PICK UP TO 15-20 KT LATER THIS AFTN AND EVENG. SUB-
SCA CONDS OVER THE OTHER WTRS WITH 15-20 KT WINDS OVER CSTL WTRS AND
10-15 KT OVER THE RIVERS AND SOUND. S FLOW CONTINUES INTO WED WITH
STRONG SFC HI PRES OFFSHORE. EXPECT SIMILAR WINDS AS TDA WITH WAVES
OVER THE BAY AT 2-3 FT AND SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS AT 2-4 FT. PRES
GRADIENT WEAKENS A BIT ON THU...AND WINDS SHOULD BE A FEW KT LESS
OVERALL. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN SLY AVGG 10-15 KT FOR THE MOST PART
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...MAS/LSA




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270244
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1044 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO
THE WEEKEND. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
OFFSHORE RIDGE DOMINATES OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER BY MORNING. WARM AND HUMID WITH LOWS 65-70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OFFSHORE BERMUDA RIDGE CONTINUES THE SUMMER HEAT/HUMIDITY THRU
THE PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A PERSISTENT TROF WHICH WHEN
COMBINED WITH THE APPRCHG MSTR FROM THE WSW WILL LIKELY BE THE
TRIGGER FOR SCT CONVECTION. TIMING RATHER PROBLEMATIC GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE OF S/W ENERGY EJECTING NE FROM DSPTG MCS`S....BUT THE
EMPHASIS OF THIS FCST WILL BE FOR MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION EACH DAY. HIGHEST POPS (40-50%) WILL BE ACROSS THE NWRN
THIRD OF FA...20-30% REST OF FA XPCT THE NE CORNER OF NC WHERE LTL
IF ANY SUPPORT SEEN FOR PCPN. THREAT WILL BE FOR LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS
GIVEN THE PW`S AOA 1.5 INCHES...DP TMPS IN THE 60S AND RELATIVELY
WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE L-M80S...XCPT 70S AT
THE BEACHES. LOWS 65-70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF SAT WITH AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE BREAKING
DOWN OVER THE ERN SEABOARD AS A COLD FRNT DROPS INTO THE MED ATLC
REGION. THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES AMONGST MODELS IN REGARDS
TO WHEN THE FRNT MAKES IT INTO THE LOCAL AREA WHICH WOULD AFFECT
TIMING OF PCPN...WITH THE 12Z GFS FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECWMF. FOR
NOW WITH THIS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT WILL FORECAST 20-30% POPS SAT
INCREASING TO 30-50% SUN WITH THE FRNT IN THE VICINITY. EXPECT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BOTH DAYS WITH HIGHS AVGG IN THE MID TO UPR
80S. CHANCE OF RAIN CONTINUES INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS NOT
QUITE AS WARM AS THE WEEKEND...HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR
80S ON AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING S/SW
WINDS DURING THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. MOS OUTPUT AND NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUB VFR CONDS MAY OCCUR WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT
GUIDANCE IS RATHER INCONSISTENT. TAFS ARE BASED PRIMARILY ON
TRENDS OF THE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS WHICH EMPHASIZE MVFR CIGS. WITH
DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...WOULD EXPECT SOME PERIODS OF MVFR
VSBYS AS WELL...MAINLY BETWEEN 10 AND 15Z. CONVECTION WEDNESDAY
IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFT 18Z.

OUTLOOK...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE...BUT LATE
AFTN/EVENING TSTMS ARE EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY
WITH LESSER CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN
SUNDAY. OUTSIDE OF TSTMS... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL...SOME
MVFR AND PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE LIKELY FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND
SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA ISSUED THIS MORNG FOR THE BAY CONTINUES THRU THIS EVENG. WITH A
SIMILAR PATTERN AS YESTERDAY WHICH HAD FREQUENT GUSTS TO 20 KT
EXPECT S WINDS TO PICK UP TO 15-20 KT LATER THIS AFTN AND EVENG. SUB-
SCA CONDS OVER THE OTHER WTRS WITH 15-20 KT WINDS OVER CSTL WTRS AND
10-15 KT OVER THE RIVERS AND SOUND. S FLOW CONTINUES INTO WED WITH
STRONG SFC HI PRES OFFSHORE. EXPECT SIMILAR WINDS AS TDA WITH WAVES
OVER THE BAY AT 2-3 FT AND SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS AT 2-4 FT. PRES
GRADIENT WEAKENS A BIT ON THU...AND WINDS SHOULD BE A FEW KT LESS
OVERALL. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN SLY AVGG 10-15 KT FOR THE MOST PART
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...MAS/LSA



000
FXUS61 KPHI 270155
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
955 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY
AND DISSIPATE AS IT TRIES TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MAY
STALL IN OUR VICINITY ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WE WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN
NORTH ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A GENERAL SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW THAT WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION.

WE ARE EXPECTING ADDITIONAL CIRRUS TO DRIFT OVERHEAD FROM TIME TO
TIME DURING THE NIGHT. ALSO, THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LOW CLOUDS TOWARD MORNING.
A WEAK IMPULSE TRAVELING IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW MAY TOUCH OFF
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AT THAT TIME, AS
WELL.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 65 TO 70
DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
YESTERDAY, THURSDAY LOOKED LIKE THE BETTER CONVECTIVE DAY. NOW IT
APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY. NOT THAT WEDNESDAY DAY APPEARS JUICIER
FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA, IT HAS MORE TO DO WITH THE DEMISE
OF THURSDAY AS A VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE PRODUCER.

SHORT WAVES EMANATING FROM THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
CONVECTION ARE PREDICTED TO COME AROUND THE SAME RIDGE. THE TIMING
COINCIDING WITH MAXIMUM HEATING OF THE DAY LOOKS BEST IN PA WHERE
WE HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS. CONFIDENCE AND LIKELIHOOD OF TSTMS
REACHING LOCATIONS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST IS LOWER. OUR
TIMING IS CLOSEST TO MODELING CONSENSUS, CAN RGEM FROM A RAIN
STANDPOINT WOULD BE MOST BENEFICIAL AS ITS TIMING IS ABOUT THREE
HOURS FASTER THAN ANY OTHER MODEL AND THUS BETTER COINCIDENCE OF
HEATING AND CONVECTION.

AS FAR AS STRONG/SEVERE GOES, MODEL PREDICTED MIX LAYER CAPES HAS
INCREASED FROM YESTERDAY AND IS NOW AVERAGING 1000-1500J, HIGHEST
NW. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A LEE SIDE OR SUSQ VLY TROF FORMING
WHICH SHOULD AID IN POOLING. PREDICTED BULK SHEAR IS EH, WITH 25KT
VALUES NWRN PART OF OUR CWA AND MUCH LESS SOUTHEAST. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WHERE TSTMS ARE MOST LIKELY ARE RATHER MODEST
(5.5C/KM), WE DO HAVE WARMER TEMPS AT 500MB ARRIVING. THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE 250MB JET IS STILL RATHER NORTHWEST. THE ONE PLUS IS
THAT MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS STILL PREDICTING APPROXIMATELY A 15C
DROP IN THETA E VALUES AND THE THETA E RIDGE IN ITSELF PASSES OVER
OUR CWA. IT LOOKS LIKE A CASE OF NON HOME GROWN STRONGER STORMS
INITIATING FIRST WITH NEARLY A CLIMO POTENTIAL OF A COUPLE STORMS
GOING SEVERE. BEST CHANCES NWRN PART OF OUR CWA. PWATS ARE PRETTY
HIGH, TOPPING AROUND 1.75", BUT MODELING IS SHOWING OK PROGRESSION
AND WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE, THE FLOODING THREAT (BEYOND POOR
DRAINAGE) IS RELATIVELY LOW.

AS FAR AS TEMPS GO, WE ARE GOING ABOVE ALL STAT GUIDANCE (A NEAR
STATUS QUO FROM TODAY) BASED ON PREDICTED 925MB TEMPS OF 20-21C.
THIS SHOULD GET US INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S (SANS ELEVATION AND
IMMEDIATE COAST) AS MODELING IDEA OF MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY LOOKS
OVERDONE. GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF A LEE SIDE TROF, WE ACCEPTED
STAT GUIDANCE DEW POINTS. THIS HAS PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES OF
AROUND 90F, WHICH IS BELOW EARLY SEASON HEADLINE THRESHOLDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST. A CDFNT WILL BE MOVG
ACRS THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PD AND WASH OUT ON THU THERE
CUD BE SOME SHRA/TSRA LINGERING WED NIGHT. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT IN THE MDLS AS TO AREAL COVERAGE AND HOW LONG ANY
PRECIP LINGERS. HOWEVER, ALL GUID HAS TRENDED DRIER, AND SOMETIMES
A PERSISTENCE FCST IS THE BEST APPROACH.

THE NAM AND GFS ARE NOW VIRTUALLY DRY ON THU, WITH THE CMC AND
ECMWF HAVING SOME PRECIP IN THE AFTN. AGAIN, THE TREND IS DRIER
AND POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD.

ON FRI, THE ECMWF HAS SOME PRECIP, WHILE THE GFS REMAINS DRY. THE
CMC HAS SOME PRECIP AS WELL. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. NOT MANY
TRIGGERS, EXCEPT FOR DAYTIME HEATING. SO CONTINUE THE TREND OF
LOWERING POPS.

THE NEXT FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH OVER THE WEEKEND. AS IS OFTEN
THE CASE, THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. THE EC KEEPS SAT
DRY, WHILE THE GFS BRINGS PRECIP IN LATE. BY SUN MRNG, THE GFS HAS
THE FRONT THRU THE AREA, WHILE THE ECMWF TRIES TO DEVELOP A WAVE
ON THE FRONT AND LINGER IT INTO EARLY MON.

WHILE THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SLOWER WITH THE FRONT AND
STALLING IT INVOF OUR AREA, THE 26/12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED MARKEDLY
DRIER WITH THE FCST BEYOND 12Z MON. IT IS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE GFS. NOT SURE IF THIS IS A ONE MDL RUN CHANGE OR THE
START OF A TREND, BUT HAVE BEGUN THE DOWNWARD PUSH ON POPS. IF THE
ECMWF CONTINUES THIS TREND, POPS MAY BE ABLE TO BE ELIMINATED FOR
PARTS OF EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS WILL BE AOA NRML THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 0800Z.

LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG MAY DEVELOP FOR THE PERIOD FROM 0800Z
THROUGH 1400Z. WE HAVE INDICATED THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDITIONS
AT THAT TIME.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FROM 1400Z UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, MAINLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF KTTN, KPNE, KPHL AND KILG.

A LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHWEST WIND IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT. WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 8 TO 12 KNOTS FOR WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS
OF 16 TO 20 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT...LINGERING SHRA/TSRA, ESPECIALLY EARLY. BETTER CHANCES
ACROSS RDG/ABE. MVFR/IFR PSBL IN SHRA/TSRA. MDT CONFIDENCE.

THU-SUN...EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS FOLLOWED BY SCT AFTN
SHRA/TSRA. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHICH DAYS AND AREAS WILL SEE
SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH AT THE COAST BASED NETWORKS SHOWING WIND GUSTS GETTING TO 25
KT AND WITH MODELING SHOWING SIMILAR SPEEDS ALOFT INTO WEDNESDAY,
WE DECIDED TO ISSUE A SCA. BETTER MIXING WILL BE RIGHT ALONG THE
COAST, WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER WINDS AND LESS GUSTINESS FARTHER
OFFSHORE.

WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN ON SEAS. REGARDLESS, SOME 5
FOOT SEAS REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY OFFSHORE. WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST, BASICALLY THERE IS A
SEPARATION OF STRONGEST WINDS (RIGHT ALONG THE COAST) FROM THE
HIGHEST SEAS (FARTHER OFFSHORE).

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT...SCA FLAG HAS BEEN RAISED FOR MARGINAL WIND BUT SEAS
AOA 5 FT.

THU THROUGH SAT...WIND AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA, BUT
CUD APPROACH SCA BY LATE SAT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOP 10 WARMEST MAY WILL OCCUR IN LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

THE FIRST 25 DAYS OF MAY IN OUR FORECAST AREA WERE AVERAGING
ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

RUNNING THE NUMBERS FROM THE FCST THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH WE
FIND THE FOLLOWING.

FOR PHILADELPHIA...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1874.
PROJECTING A MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 69 TO 70 RISING FROM
THE CURRENT VALUE OF 67.8, AT LEAST 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
HEADING FOR MOST LIKELY THE THIRD WARMEST MAY ON RECORD. WARMEST
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN MAY ON RECORD WAS 70.8 IN 1991. THEN 69.2
2004 AND 68.2 IN 2012.

FOR ALLENTOWN...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1922. THE MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IS CURRENTLY 63.9 DEGREES. IT IS LIKELY TO
INCREASE BY A DEGREE OR TWO LATER THIS WEEK, LEADING TO A TOP 10
WARMEST MAY THIS YEAR AT ALLENTOWN. THE WARMEST AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE IN MAY WAS 67.2 BACK IN 1991.

FOR WILMINGTON.... THE MONTH OF MAY IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE
TOP 5- 10 WARMEST. THE CURRENT MONTHLY TEMPERATURE IS 65.8 DEGREES
AND SHOULD RISE A DEGREE OR TWO BY MONTHS END. THE WARMEST MAY WAS
IN 1896 WHERE THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 70.1 DEGREES. IN 1991
THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 69.1 DEGREES.

FOR ATLANTIC CITY... THE MONTH IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE TOP
THREE WARMEST MAYS. CURRENTLY, THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE
MONTH IS 64.5 DEGREES AND IS LIKELY TO RISE A DEGREE TOR TWO BY
MONTHS END. THE WARMEST MAY WAS BACK IN 2004 WHERE THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE REACHED 66.9 DEGREES. IN 1991 THE MONTHLY AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE WAS 66 DEGREES. BOTH 2011 AND 2012 SAW A MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 65 DEGREES.

NORMAL FIRST DATE OF 90 OR HIGHER.

PHILADELPHIA MAY 29 ALLENTOWN MAY 30 WILMINGTON JUNE 4 ATLANTIC
CITY JUNE 11.

*************************************************************

HERE IS OUR ANNUAL LOOK AS TO HOW HOT, HOT, HOT THE SUMMER WILL
BE BASED ON PAST PERFORMANCES.

A FULL FLEDGED EL NINO IS UNDERWAY IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. ALL
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS KEEP IT GOING, THE DIFFERENCES
THAT EXIST ARE TO ITS STRENGTH THROUGH THIS UPCOMING SUMMER. THE
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS ARE AVERAGING A MODERATE EL NINO
FOR THE COMBINED SUMMER MONTHS. SOME MODELS, INCLUDING THE CFS2
AND ECMWF ARE PREDICTING A STRONG EL NINO. IN THE CPC MONITORING
EL NINO ERA STARTING SINCE 1950, THE HIGHEST (WARMEST) SUMMER
ANOMALY RECORDED WAS +1.5C (NEAR OR AT THE THRESHOLD FOR STRONG EL
NINOS) DURING THE SUMMER OF 1997.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL REALLY SEAL THE DEAL THAT THIS MAY WILL
BE UNSEASONABLY WARM IN PHILADELPHIA. IT "MAY" EVEN BE A TOP THREE
WARMEST. THIS FOLLOWS ON THE HEELS OF AN UNSEASONABLY WARM APRIL.
SINCE 1872, THE COMBINATION OF BOTH WARM (TOP THIRD OF ALL YEARS)
APRILS AND MAYS HAS ONLY OCCURRED TWENTY-THREE TIMES. BUT IT HAS
OCCURRED ELEVEN TIMES SINCE 1990 AND SIX OF THE LAST SEVEN
SPRINGS.

SO WE SCOURED THE CLIMATE RECORDS TO FIND BUDDING OR IN PROGRESS
EL NINOS THAT COINCIDED WITH BOTH WARM APRILS AND MAYS LOCALLY IN
THE CPC MONITORING ERA. WE FOUND THREE PAST SUMMERS THAT MET THE
CRITERIA. THE ONE SIGN IS THAT ALL THREE ANALOG SUMMERS WERE
WETTER THAN NORMAL, HOPEFULLY KEEPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS FROM
INTENSIFYING FURTHER.

THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE PREDICTIONS FOR THIS
UPCOMING SUMMER HAS WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER EXPECTED
IN OUR AREA. THE INTERNATIONAL MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE
SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC PREDICTING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION.

THE ANALOGS FOR PHILADELPHIA ARE:

YEAR    JUNE AVG   JULY AVG   AUGUST AVG   SUMMER AVG   SUMMER PCPN

1969      73.4        75.1      75.2         74.6        18.30
1977      68.6        77.8      76.2         74.2        15.50
1991      75.7        79.0      79.0         77.9        12.01
AVG       72.6        77.3      76.8         75.6        15.27

1981-
2010      73.3        78.1      76.6         76.0        11.28
NORMAL

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR OUR FORECAST AREA IS FOR EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GIGI/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...STAFF



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270132
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
932 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO
THE WEEKEND. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SCT SHWRS/TSTRMS DVLP IVOF CHO
OVR THE NXT FEW HRS...DRIFT INTO LOUISA/FLUVANNA CNTYS BTWN 21-00Z
THEN DSPT BY 10 PM. KEPT A 20-30 POP FOR THIS ACTIVITY THIS EVE.
OTW...OFFSHORE RIDGE DOMINATES BUT EXPECT A FAIR AMT OF SC/ST TO
DEVELOP GIVEN THE INCRS IN LL MSTR. THUS WENT PT CLDY WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE THOUGH IT MAY TURN OUT MSTLY CLDY IN SOME AREAS
LATE TONITE. WARM AND HUMID WITH LOWS 65-70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OFFSHORE BERMUDA RIDGE CONTINUES THE SUMMER HEAT/HUMIDITY THRU
THE PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A PERSISTANT TROF WHICH WHEN
COMBINED WITH THE APPRCHG MSTR FROM THE WSW WILL LIKELY BE THE
TRIGGER FOR SCT CONVECTION. TIMING RATHER PROBLEMATIC GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE OF S/W ENERGY EJECTING NE FROM DSPTG MCS`S....BUT THE
EMPHASIS OF THIS FCST WILL BE FOR MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION EACH DAY. HIGHEST POPS (40-50%) WILL BE ACROSS THE NWRN
THIRD OF FA...20-30% REST OF FA XPCT THE NE CORNER OF NC WHERE LTL
IF ANY SUPPORT SEEN FOR PCPN. THREAT WILL BE FOR LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS
GIVEN THE PW`S AOA 1.5 INCHES...DP TMPS IN THE 60S AND RELATIVELY
WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE L-M80S...XCPT 70S AT
THE BEACHES. LOWS 65-70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF SAT WITH AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE BREAKING
DOWN OVER THE ERN SEABOARD AS A COLD FRNT DROPS INTO THE MED ATLC
REGION. THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES AMONGST MODELS IN REGARDS
TO WHEN THE FRNT MAKES IT INTO THE LOCAL AREA WHICH WOULD AFFECT
TIMING OF PCPN...WITH THE 12Z GFS FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECWMF. FOR
NOW WITH THIS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT WILL FORECAST 20-30% POPS SAT
INCREASING TO 30-50% SUN WITH THE FRNT IN THE VICINITY. EXPECT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BOTH DAYS WITH HIGHS AVGG IN THE MID TO UPR
80S. CHANCE OF RAIN CONTINUES INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS NOT
QUITE AS WARM AS THE WEEKEND...HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR
80S ON AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING S/SW
WINDS DURING THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. MOS OUTPUT AND NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUB VFR CONDS MAY OCCUR WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT
GUIDANCE IS RATHER INCONSISTENT. TAFS ARE BASED PRIMARILY ON
TRENDS OF THE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS WHICH EMPHASIZE MVFR CIGS. WITH
DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...WOULD EXPECT SOME PERIODS OF MVFR
VSBYS AS WELL...MAINLY BETWEEN 10 AND 15Z. CONVECTION WEDNESDAY
IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFT 18Z.

OUTLOOK...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE...BUT LATE
AFTN/EVENING TSTMS ARE EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY
WITH LESSER CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN
SUNDAY. OUTSIDE OF TSTMS... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL...SOME
MVFR AND PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE LIKELY FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND
SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA ISSUED THIS MORNG FOR THE BAY CONTINUES THRU THIS EVENG. WITH A
SIMILAR PATTERN AS YESTERDAY WHICH HAD FREQUENT GUSTS TO 20 KT
EXPECT S WINDS TO PICK UP TO 15-20 KT LATER THIS AFTN AND EVENG. SUB-
SCA CONDS OVER THE OTHER WTRS WITH 15-20 KT WINDS OVER CSTL WTRS AND
10-15 KT OVER THE RIVERS AND SOUND. S FLOW CONTINUES INTO WED WITH
STRONG SFC HI PRES OFFSHORE. EXPECT SIMILAR WINDS AS TDA WITH WAVES
OVER THE BAY AT 2-3 FT AND SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS AT 2-4 FT. PRES
GRADIENT WEAKENS A BIT ON THU...AND WINDS SHOULD BE A FEW KT LESS
OVERALL. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN SLY AVGG 10-15 KT FOR THE MOST PART
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...MAS/LSA



000
FXUS61 KLWX 270102 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
902 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING WARM HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED/WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY IN THE LAST HALF
HOUR WITH NO LIGHTNING SEEN IN THE LAST 30 MINUTES. CURRENT BAND
OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LIFT NORTH INTO PA TONIGHT ON A
NNE STEERING FLOW. A BAND OF SHOWERS OVER ERN OH AND WRN WV WILL
MOVE EAST INTO THE HIGHLANDS TOWARD DAYBREAK AND THE I-81 CORRIDOR
BY 18Z WED AND TO THE UPPER CHES BAY BY 00Z THU. THESE SHOWERS
MAY PRODUCE BRIEF DOWNPOURS DUE TO VERY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND
HIGH K INDICES BUT FAST STORM MOTION SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS
MANAGEABLE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES FURTHER EAST WEDNESDAY AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. FALLING HEIGHTS...
MOISTURE AS WELL AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES COUPLED WITH A UPPER
LEVEL JET WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY.
MOISTURE FROM THE ACTIVITY ACROSS AL/GA WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST
TO EAST WEDNESDAY. THINNER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL LEAD TO HEATING AND MORE
INSTABILITY. SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL...AROUND 20-30KTS WITH THE
BEST SHEAR NEAR THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS SIMILAR TO TODAY...TUESDAY.
DUE TO THE MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES THAT MAY MOVE OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE ARE IN THE SUMMERTIME PATTERN W/ THE HIGH OFF THE CST. THIS WL
CONT TO DRAW WARMTH AND MOISTURE INTO THE MID ATLC WED NGT-THU
NGT. WHILE TSTMS WL BE PSBL BOTH WED EVE AND THU AFTN THERE DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH SHEAR OR A FORCING MECHANISM SO SVR THREAT
LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST.

TEMPS SHOULD RMN STEADY - HIGHS IN THE 80S...PSBLY A90 IN THE
CITIES. LOWS IN THE 60S...L70S IN THE CITIES.

A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD LINGER IN PARTS
OF THE AREA WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL REACH THE MIDDLE 80S WITH LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT GETTING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY. THE
EUROPEAN MODEL REMAINS THE SLOWER MODEL OVER THE GFS.
HOWEVER...THE GFS MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE FRONT SLOWING
DOWN AS WELL. A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT TENDS TO BE THE TREND.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY.

A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...HELPING TO COOL CONDITIONS DOWN A
LITTLE. HOWEVER...OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...PASSING
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO THE NORTH...AND A DEVELOPING LOW ALONG THE
FRONT COULD BRING ANOTHER THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE LIMITED WITH LOW LEVEL COOLER AIR EVENTUALLY WORKS ITS
WAY INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES MAY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
EACH PERIOD.

AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THESE DISTURBANCES COULD POSE A SHOWER THREAT
TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID-LEVEL DRYING OVERNIGHT COUPLED WITH VERY MOIST LOW-LEVELS MAY
RESULT IN MVFR CIGS ESPECIALLY AT DCA...BWI AND MTN. INCLUDED A
2-3 HR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT THOSE TAF SITES EARLY WED MORNING.
SHOWERS/T-STORMS APPEAR LIKELY AT KMRB WED AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS
BWI AND MTN. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED AT IAD...DCA AND
CHO.

VFR CONDS XPCTD OUTSIDE OF ANY PSBL RW/TRW WED NGT-THU NGT. NO
PROBS XPCTD FRI.

VFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
IN THE AREA NEAR CHO OR MRB TERMINAL. VFR ELSEWHERE.

VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY AT MTN...BWI...DCA TERMINALS. MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS AT IAD...CHO...AND MRB TERMINALS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
S WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ON THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF
POOLES ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. WIND FIELD SUBSIDES NORTH OF SANDY
POINT LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WHICH MAY REQUIRE SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS.

NO MARINE HAZARDS THURSDAY NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS GUSTING 20 KNOTS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ531-538-
     539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-
     537-540>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...ABW
AVIATION...LFR
MARINE...LFR



000
FXUS61 KLWX 270102 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
902 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING WARM HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED/WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY IN THE LAST HALF
HOUR WITH NO LIGHTNING SEEN IN THE LAST 30 MINUTES. CURRENT BAND
OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LIFT NORTH INTO PA TONIGHT ON A
NNE STEERING FLOW. A BAND OF SHOWERS OVER ERN OH AND WRN WV WILL
MOVE EAST INTO THE HIGHLANDS TOWARD DAYBREAK AND THE I-81 CORRIDOR
BY 18Z WED AND TO THE UPPER CHES BAY BY 00Z THU. THESE SHOWERS
MAY PRODUCE BRIEF DOWNPOURS DUE TO VERY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND
HIGH K INDICES BUT FAST STORM MOTION SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS
MANAGEABLE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES FURTHER EAST WEDNESDAY AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. FALLING HEIGHTS...
MOISTURE AS WELL AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES COUPLED WITH A UPPER
LEVEL JET WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY.
MOISTURE FROM THE ACTIVITY ACROSS AL/GA WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST
TO EAST WEDNESDAY. THINNER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL LEAD TO HEATING AND MORE
INSTABILITY. SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL...AROUND 20-30KTS WITH THE
BEST SHEAR NEAR THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS SIMILAR TO TODAY...TUESDAY.
DUE TO THE MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES THAT MAY MOVE OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE ARE IN THE SUMMERTIME PATTERN W/ THE HIGH OFF THE CST. THIS WL
CONT TO DRAW WARMTH AND MOISTURE INTO THE MID ATLC WED NGT-THU
NGT. WHILE TSTMS WL BE PSBL BOTH WED EVE AND THU AFTN THERE DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH SHEAR OR A FORCING MECHANISM SO SVR THREAT
LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST.

TEMPS SHOULD RMN STEADY - HIGHS IN THE 80S...PSBLY A90 IN THE
CITIES. LOWS IN THE 60S...L70S IN THE CITIES.

A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD LINGER IN PARTS
OF THE AREA WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL REACH THE MIDDLE 80S WITH LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT GETTING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY. THE
EUROPEAN MODEL REMAINS THE SLOWER MODEL OVER THE GFS.
HOWEVER...THE GFS MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE FRONT SLOWING
DOWN AS WELL. A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT TENDS TO BE THE TREND.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY.

A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...HELPING TO COOL CONDITIONS DOWN A
LITTLE. HOWEVER...OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...PASSING
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO THE NORTH...AND A DEVELOPING LOW ALONG THE
FRONT COULD BRING ANOTHER THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE LIMITED WITH LOW LEVEL COOLER AIR EVENTUALLY WORKS ITS
WAY INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES MAY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
EACH PERIOD.

AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THESE DISTURBANCES COULD POSE A SHOWER THREAT
TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID-LEVEL DRYING OVERNIGHT COUPLED WITH VERY MOIST LOW-LEVELS MAY
RESULT IN MVFR CIGS ESPECIALLY AT DCA...BWI AND MTN. INCLUDED A
2-3 HR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT THOSE TAF SITES EARLY WED MORNING.
SHOWERS/T-STORMS APPEAR LIKELY AT KMRB WED AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS
BWI AND MTN. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED AT IAD...DCA AND
CHO.

VFR CONDS XPCTD OUTSIDE OF ANY PSBL RW/TRW WED NGT-THU NGT. NO
PROBS XPCTD FRI.

VFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
IN THE AREA NEAR CHO OR MRB TERMINAL. VFR ELSEWHERE.

VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY AT MTN...BWI...DCA TERMINALS. MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS AT IAD...CHO...AND MRB TERMINALS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
S WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ON THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF
POOLES ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. WIND FIELD SUBSIDES NORTH OF SANDY
POINT LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WHICH MAY REQUIRE SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS.

NO MARINE HAZARDS THURSDAY NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS GUSTING 20 KNOTS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ531-538-
     539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-
     537-540>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...ABW
AVIATION...LFR
MARINE...LFR




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270041
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
841 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH
PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WITH UNIMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN
FAIRLY NOMINAL...WITH NO REPORTS OF ANYTHING EVEN APPROACHING
SEVERE. AS THE NIGHT ENSUES...AND INSTABILITY REMAINED MODEST AT
BEST...DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE FUELED BY AN INCREASE IN MID-
LEVEL RH VALUES AND INCREASED SHEAR. THIS IS UNLIKELY TO RESULT IN
MUCH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL
BE LIKELY TO CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA. MORE ORGANIZED SHEAR LOOKS TO HOLD BACK FOR THE
MAIN LONG WAVE TROUGH CROSSING ON WEDNESDAY.

INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA AS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ENCROACHES WILL LIKELY KEEP A FLOOR UNDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
LOWS WILL STAY LARGELY WELL INTO THE 60S. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO EXIT THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...THOUGH MARGINAL SHEAR VALUES SHOULD HELP
LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

RIDGING LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY WEATHER. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VARIOUS LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS AGREE ON STUBBORN BOUNDARY LAID
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE CHANCE
POPS WERE PRESERVED WITH THE SUPPORT OF A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER
OVER THE OUTCOME OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST IN
TERMS OF MAGNITUDE...POSITION...AND TIMING. THEREFORE PERSISTENCE
WAS HEAVILY USED IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AND LOW CHANCE
POPS WERE INTRODUCED.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL...MAINLY MVFR...IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE SUPPORTS MORE SHOWERS...AND LOWER CLOUDS AS
DAWN APPROACHES. IN THE MEANTIME...GENERAL VFR THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH TEMPORARY RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDERSTORMS.

MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR A PORTION OF WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT AND RETURN TO VFR.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IS INDICATED AS PRECIP CHANCES DECLINE
THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...PRECIP...AND RESTRICTION CHANCES WILL
AGAIN INCREASE WITH AN ENCROACING FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270041
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
841 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH
PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WITH UNIMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN
FAIRLY NOMINAL...WITH NO REPORTS OF ANYTHING EVEN APPROACHING
SEVERE. AS THE NIGHT ENSUES...AND INSTABILITY REMAINED MODEST AT
BEST...DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE FUELED BY AN INCREASE IN MID-
LEVEL RH VALUES AND INCREASED SHEAR. THIS IS UNLIKELY TO RESULT IN
MUCH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL
BE LIKELY TO CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA. MORE ORGANIZED SHEAR LOOKS TO HOLD BACK FOR THE
MAIN LONG WAVE TROUGH CROSSING ON WEDNESDAY.

INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA AS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ENCROACHES WILL LIKELY KEEP A FLOOR UNDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
LOWS WILL STAY LARGELY WELL INTO THE 60S. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO EXIT THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...THOUGH MARGINAL SHEAR VALUES SHOULD HELP
LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

RIDGING LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY WEATHER. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VARIOUS LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS AGREE ON STUBBORN BOUNDARY LAID
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE CHANCE
POPS WERE PRESERVED WITH THE SUPPORT OF A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER
OVER THE OUTCOME OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST IN
TERMS OF MAGNITUDE...POSITION...AND TIMING. THEREFORE PERSISTENCE
WAS HEAVILY USED IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AND LOW CHANCE
POPS WERE INTRODUCED.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL...MAINLY MVFR...IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE SUPPORTS MORE SHOWERS...AND LOWER CLOUDS AS
DAWN APPROACHES. IN THE MEANTIME...GENERAL VFR THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH TEMPORARY RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDERSTORMS.

MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR A PORTION OF WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT AND RETURN TO VFR.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IS INDICATED AS PRECIP CHANCES DECLINE
THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...PRECIP...AND RESTRICTION CHANCES WILL
AGAIN INCREASE WITH AN ENCROACING FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 262307 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
707 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH
PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE SLUG OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS SET TO RIDE
NORTHEAST INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH FAIRLY
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING AS IT DOES
SO. CAPE VALUES ARE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE AND LARGELY BELOW 1000
J/KG AS MID-LEVEL WARM AIR IS EFFECTIVELY LIMITING
INSTABILITY...HOWEVER WIND PROFILES ARE WORKING WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY TO MANIFEST SOME RATHER PERSISENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WITH SOME ORGANIZATION OVER OHIO. THIS WILL ALL CONTINUE TO THE
NORTHEAST...AND GIVEN SOME AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE COLUMN AS IT
DOES SO...PERIODIC GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RESULT AS THESE
CELLS DO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. ONE OR TWO OF THESE COULD BRIEFLY
PULSE SEVERE...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD SEVERE ACTIVITY IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA AS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ENCROACHES WILL LIKELY KEEP A FLOOR UNDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
LOWS WILL STAY LARGELY WELL INTO THE 60S. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO EXIT THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...THOUGH MARGINAL SHEAR VALUES SHOULD HELP
LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

RIDGING LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY WEATHER. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VARIOUS LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS AGREE ON STUBBORN BOUNDARY LAID
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE CHANCE
POPS WERE PRESERVED WITH THE SUPPORT OF A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER
OVER THE OUTCOME OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST IN
TERMS OF MAGNITUDE...POSITION...AND TIMING. THEREFORE PERSISTENCE
WAS HEAVILY USED IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AND LOW CHANCE
POPS WERE INTRODUCED.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL...MAINLY MVFR...IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE SUPPORTS MORE SHOWERS...AND LOWER CLOUDS AS
DAWN APPROACHES. IN THE MEANTIME...GENERAL VFR THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH TEMPORARY RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDERSTORMS.

MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR A PORTION OF WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT AND RETURN TO VFR.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IS INDICATED AS PRECIP CHANCES DECLINE
THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...PRECIP...AND RESTRICTION CHANCES WILL
AGAIN INCREASE WITH AN ENCROACING FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 262307 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
707 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH
PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE SLUG OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS SET TO RIDE
NORTHEAST INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH FAIRLY
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING AS IT DOES
SO. CAPE VALUES ARE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE AND LARGELY BELOW 1000
J/KG AS MID-LEVEL WARM AIR IS EFFECTIVELY LIMITING
INSTABILITY...HOWEVER WIND PROFILES ARE WORKING WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY TO MANIFEST SOME RATHER PERSISENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WITH SOME ORGANIZATION OVER OHIO. THIS WILL ALL CONTINUE TO THE
NORTHEAST...AND GIVEN SOME AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE COLUMN AS IT
DOES SO...PERIODIC GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RESULT AS THESE
CELLS DO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. ONE OR TWO OF THESE COULD BRIEFLY
PULSE SEVERE...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD SEVERE ACTIVITY IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA AS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ENCROACHES WILL LIKELY KEEP A FLOOR UNDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
LOWS WILL STAY LARGELY WELL INTO THE 60S. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO EXIT THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...THOUGH MARGINAL SHEAR VALUES SHOULD HELP
LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

RIDGING LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY WEATHER. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VARIOUS LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS AGREE ON STUBBORN BOUNDARY LAID
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE CHANCE
POPS WERE PRESERVED WITH THE SUPPORT OF A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER
OVER THE OUTCOME OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST IN
TERMS OF MAGNITUDE...POSITION...AND TIMING. THEREFORE PERSISTENCE
WAS HEAVILY USED IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AND LOW CHANCE
POPS WERE INTRODUCED.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL...MAINLY MVFR...IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE SUPPORTS MORE SHOWERS...AND LOWER CLOUDS AS
DAWN APPROACHES. IN THE MEANTIME...GENERAL VFR THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH TEMPORARY RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDERSTORMS.

MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR A PORTION OF WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT AND RETURN TO VFR.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IS INDICATED AS PRECIP CHANCES DECLINE
THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...PRECIP...AND RESTRICTION CHANCES WILL
AGAIN INCREASE WITH AN ENCROACING FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPHI 262200
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
600 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY
AND DISSIPATE AS IT TRIES TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MAY
STALL IN OUR VICINITY ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WE WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN
NORTH ATLANTIC FOR TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A GENERAL SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW THAT WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION.

IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION INTO THIS
EVENING WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST AND NORTH BEFORE DISSIPATING. AS A
RESULT, THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN PARTS OF
BERKS COUNTY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY, THE POCONOS AND FAR NORTHWESTERN
NEW JERSEY. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE
RAIN-FREE.

WE ARE EXPECTING CIRRUS TO DRIFT OVERHEAD FROM TIME TO TIME
DURING THE NIGHT. ALSO, THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LOW CLOUDS TOWARD MORNING. A
WEAK IMPULSE TRAVELING IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW MAY TOUCH OFF
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AT THAT TIME, AS
WELL.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 65 TO 70
DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
YESTERDAY, THURSDAY LOOKED LIKE THE BETTER CONVECTIVE DAY. NOW IT
APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY. NOT THAT WEDNESDAY DAY APPEARS JUICIER
FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA, IT HAS MORE TO DO WITH THE DEMISE
OF THURSDAY AS A VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE PRODUCER.

SHORT WAVES EMANATING FROM THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
CONVECTION ARE PREDICTED TO COME AROUND THE SAME RIDGE. THE TIMING
COINCIDING WITH MAXIMUM HEATING OF THE DAY LOOKS BEST IN PA WHERE
WE HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS. CONFIDENCE AND LIKELIHOOD OF TSTMS
REACHING LOCATIONS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST IS LOWER. OUR
TIMING IS CLOSEST TO MODELING CONSENSUS, CAN RGEM FROM A RAIN
STANDPOINT WOULD BE MOST BENEFICIAL AS ITS TIMING IS ABOUT THREE
HOURS FASTER THAN ANY OTHER MODEL AND THUS BETTER COINCIDENCE OF
HEATING AND CONVECTION.

AS FAR AS STRONG/SEVERE GOES, MODEL PREDICTED MIX LAYER CAPES HAS
INCREASED FROM YESTERDAY AND IS NOW AVERAGING 1000-1500J, HIGHEST
NW. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A LEE SIDE OR SUSQ VLY TROF FORMING
WHICH SHOULD AID IN POOLING. PREDICTED BULK SHEAR IS EH, WITH 25KT
VALUES NWRN PART OF OUR CWA AND MUCH LESS SOUTHEAST. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WHERE TSTMS ARE MOST LIKELY ARE RATHER MODEST
(5.5C/KM), WE DO HAVE WARMER TEMPS AT 500MB ARRIVING. THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE 250MB JET IS STILL RATHER NORTHWEST. THE ONE PLUS IS
THAT MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS STILL PREDICTING APPROXIMATELY A 15C
DROP IN THETA E VALUES AND THE THETA E RIDGE IN ITSELF PASSES OVER
OUR CWA. IT LOOKS LIKE A CASE OF NON HOME GROWN STRONGER STORMS
INITIATING FIRST WITH NEARLY A CLIMO POTENTIAL OF A COUPLE STORMS
GOING SEVERE. BEST CHANCES NWRN PART OF OUR CWA. PWATS ARE PRETTY
HIGH, TOPPING AROUND 1.75", BUT MODELING IS SHOWING OK PROGRESSION
AND WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE, THE FLOODING THREAT (BEYOND POOR
DRAINAGE) IS RELATIVELY LOW.

AS FAR AS TEMPS GO, WE ARE GOING ABOVE ALL STAT GUIDANCE (A NEAR
STATUS QUO FROM TODAY) BASED ON PREDICTED 925MB TEMPS OF 20-21C.
THIS SHOULD GET US INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S (SANS ELEVATION AND
IMMEDIATE COAST) AS MODELING IDEA OF MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY LOOKS
OVERDONE. GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF A LEE SIDE TROF, WE ACCEPTED
STAT GUIDANCE DEW POINTS. THIS HAS PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES OF
AROUND 90F, WHICH IS BELOW EARLY SEASON HEADLINE THRESHOLDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST. A CDFNT WILL BE MOVG
ACRS THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PD AND WASH OUT ON THU THERE
CUD BE SOME SHRA/TSRA LINGERING WED NIGHT. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT IN THE MDLS AS TO AREAL COVERAGE AND HOW LONG ANY
PRECIP LINGERS. HOWEVER, ALL GUID HAS TRENDED DRIER, AND SOMETIMES
A PERSISTENCE FCST IS THE BEST APPROACH.

THE NAM AND GFS ARE NOW VIRTUALLY DRY ON THU, WITH THE CMC AND
ECMWF HAVING SOME PRECIP IN THE AFTN. AGAIN, THE TREND IS DRIER
AND POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD.

ON FRI, THE ECMWF HAS SOME PRECIP, WHILE THE GFS REMAINS DRY. THE
CMC HAS SOME PRECIP AS WELL. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. NOT MANY
TRIGGERS, EXCEPT FOR DAYTIME HEATING. SO CONTINUE THE TREND OF
LOWERING POPS.

THE NEXT FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH OVER THE WEEKEND. AS IS OFTEN
THE CASE, THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. THE EC KEEPS SAT
DRY, WHILE THE GFS BRINGS PRECIP IN LATE. BY SUN MRNG, THE GFS HAS
THE FRONT THRU THE AREA, WHILE THE ECMWF TRIES TO DEVELOP A WAVE
ON THE FRONT AND LINGER IT INTO EARLY MON.

WHILE THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SLOWER WITH THE FRONT AND
STALLING IT INVOF OUR AREA, THE 26/12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED MARKEDLY
DRIER WITH THE FCST BEYOND 12Z MON. IT IS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE GFS. NOT SURE IF THIS IS A ONE MDL RUN CHANGE OR THE
START OF A TREND, BUT HAVE BEGUN THE DOWNWARD PUSH ON POPS. IF THE
ECMWF CONTINUES THIS TREND, POPS MAY BE ABLE TO BE ELIMINATED FOR
PARTS OF EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS WILL BE AOA NRML THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

18Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR TOWARD WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

THIS EVENING...VFR. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO
15 KNOTS WITH PEAK GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS.

A SEA BREEZE FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MONMOUTH INTO NW OCEAN,
CENTRAL BURLINGTON, WESTERN ATLANTIC AND EASTERN CUMBERLAND. GIVEN
THE GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, THIS FRONT SHOULD HAVE A TOUGH
TIME ADVANCING MUCH FARTHER TO THE WEST.

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN WEST AND
NORTH OF TERMINALS.

OVERNIGHT...VFR. MID LEVEL DECK CIG FROM KPHL METRO AREA AIRPORTS
WEST AND NORTH. SOUTH WINDS DECREASING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE ABOUT A MVFR CIG
FORMING ALONG WITH MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT MORE RURAL AIRPORTS
AND TERMINALS. FOG WOULD BECOME MORE LIKELY IF MID DECK CIG DOES
NOT MATERIALIZE. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS.

WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...CIGS AND VSBYS BECOMING
VFR. CU DECK HEIGHT IS WEIGHED TOWARD START OF FCST PERIOD, IT
SHOULD BECOME HIGHER AS MORNING AND AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TSTMS WILL START FORMING WEST OF THE AREA,
TIMING FOR KPHL CLOSE TO 00Z SO NOT INCLUDED IN PRESENT TAF.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT...LINGERING SHRA/TSRA, ESPECIALLY EARLY. BETTER CHANCES
ACROSS RDG/ABE. MVFR/IFR PSBL IN SHRA/TSRA. MDT CONFIDENCE.

THU-SUN...EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS FOLLOWED BY SCT AFTN
SHRA/TSRA. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHICH DAYS AND AREAS WILL SEE
SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH AT THE COAST BASED NETWORKS SHOWING WIND GUSTS GETTING TO 25
KT AND WITH MODELING SHOWING SIMILAR SPEEDS ALOFT INTO WEDNESDAY,
WE DECIDED TO ISSUE A SCA. BETTER MIXING WILL BE RIGHT ALONG THE
COAST, WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER WINDS AND LESS GUSTINESS FARTHER
OFFSHORE.

WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN ON SEAS. REGARDLESS, SOME 5
FOOT SEAS REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY OFFSHORE. WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST, BASICALLY THERE IS A
SEPARATION OF STRONGEST WINDS (RIGHT ALONG THE COAST) FROM THE
HIGHEST SEAS (FARTHER OFFSHORE).

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT...SCA FLAG HAS BEEN RAISED FOR MARGINAL WIND BUT SEAS
AOA 5 FT.

THU THROUGH SAT...WIND AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA, BUT
CUD APPROACH SCA BY LATE SAT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOP 10 WARMEST MAY WILL OCCUR IN LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

THE FIRST 25 DAYS OF MAY IN OUR FORECAST AREA WERE AVERAGING
ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

RUNNING THE NUMBERS FROM THE FCST THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH WE
FIND THE FOLLOWING.

FOR PHILADELPHIA...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1874.
PROJECTING A MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 69 TO 70 RISING FROM
THE CURRENT VALUE OF 67.8, AT LEAST 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
HEADING FOR MOST LIKELY THE THIRD WARMEST MAY ON RECORD. WARMEST
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN MAY ON RECORD WAS 70.8 IN 1991. THEN 69.2
2004 AND 68.2 IN 2012.

FOR ALLENTOWN...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1922. THE MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IS CURRENTLY 63.9 DEGREES. IT IS LIKELY TO
INCREASE BY A DEGREE OR TWO LATER THIS WEEK, LEADING TO A TOP 10
WARMEST MAY THIS YEAR AT ALLENTOWN. THE WARMEST AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE IN MAY WAS 67.2 BACK IN 1991.

FOR WILMINGTON.... THE MONTH OF MAY IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE
TOP 5- 10 WARMEST. THE CURRENT MONTHLY TEMPERATURE IS 65.8 DEGREES
AND SHOULD RISE A DEGREE OR TWO BY MONTHS END. THE WARMEST MAY WAS
IN 1896 WHERE THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 70.1 DEGREES. IN 1991
THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 69.1 DEGREES.

FOR ATLANTIC CITY... THE MONTH IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE TOP
THREE WARMEST MAYS. CURRENTLY, THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE
MONTH IS 64.5 DEGREES AND IS LIKELY TO RISE A DEGREE TOR TWO BY
MONTHS END. THE WARMEST MAY WAS BACK IN 2004 WHERE THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE REACHED 66.9 DEGREES. IN 1991 THE MONTHLY AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE WAS 66 DEGREES. BOTH 2011 AND 2012 SAW A MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 65 DEGREES.

NORMAL FIRST DATE OF 90 OR HIGHER.

PHILADELPHIA MAY 29 ALLENTOWN MAY 30 WILMINGTON JUNE 4 ATLANTIC
CITY JUNE 11.

*************************************************************

HERE IS OUR ANNUAL LOOK AS TO HOW HOT, HOT, HOT THE SUMMER WILL
BE BASED ON PAST PERFORMANCES.

A FULL FLEDGED EL NINO IS UNDERWAY IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. ALL
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS KEEP IT GOING, THE DIFFERENCES
THAT EXIST ARE TO ITS STRENGTH THROUGH THIS UPCOMING SUMMER. THE
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS ARE AVERAGING A MODERATE EL NINO
FOR THE COMBINED SUMMER MONTHS. SOME MODELS, INCLUDING THE CFS2
AND ECMWF ARE PREDICTING A STRONG EL NINO. IN THE CPC MONITORING
EL NINO ERA STARTING SINCE 1950, THE HIGHEST (WARMEST) SUMMER
ANOMALY RECORDED WAS +1.5C (NEAR OR AT THE THRESHOLD FOR STRONG EL
NINOS) DURING THE SUMMER OF 1997.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL REALLY SEAL THE DEAL THAT THIS MAY WILL
BE UNSEASONABLY WARM IN PHILADELPHIA. IT "MAY" EVEN BE A TOP THREE
WARMEST. THIS FOLLOWS ON THE HEELS OF AN UNSEASONABLY WARM APRIL.
SINCE 1872, THE COMBINATION OF BOTH WARM (TOP THIRD OF ALL YEARS)
APRILS AND MAYS HAS ONLY OCCURRED TWENTY-THREE TIMES. BUT IT HAS
OCCURRED ELEVEN TIMES SINCE 1990 AND SIX OF THE LAST SEVEN
SPRINGS.

SO WE SCOURED THE CLIMATE RECORDS TO FIND BUDDING OR IN PROGRESS
EL NINOS THAT COINCIDED WITH BOTH WARM APRILS AND MAYS LOCALLY IN
THE CPC MONITORING ERA. WE FOUND THREE PAST SUMMERS THAT MET THE
CRITERIA. THE ONE SIGN IS THAT ALL THREE ANALOG SUMMERS WERE
WETTER THAN NORMAL, HOPEFULLY KEEPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS FROM
INTENSIFYING FURTHER.

THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE PREDICTIONS FOR THIS
UPCOMING SUMMER HAS WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER EXPECTED
IN OUR AREA. THE INTERNATIONAL MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE
SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC PREDICTING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION.

THE ANALOGS FOR PHILADELPHIA ARE:

YEAR    JUNE AVG   JULY AVG   AUGUST AVG   SUMMER AVG   SUMMER PCPN

1969      73.4        75.1      75.2         74.6        18.30
1977      68.6        77.8      76.2         74.2        15.50
1991      75.7        79.0      79.0         77.9        12.01
AVG       72.6        77.3      76.8         75.6        15.27

1981-
2010      73.3        78.1      76.6         76.0        11.28
NORMAL

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR OUR FORECAST AREA IS FOR EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GIGI/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GIGI/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KPHI 262200
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
600 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY
AND DISSIPATE AS IT TRIES TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MAY
STALL IN OUR VICINITY ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WE WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN
NORTH ATLANTIC FOR TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A GENERAL SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW THAT WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION.

IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION INTO THIS
EVENING WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST AND NORTH BEFORE DISSIPATING. AS A
RESULT, THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN PARTS OF
BERKS COUNTY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY, THE POCONOS AND FAR NORTHWESTERN
NEW JERSEY. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE
RAIN-FREE.

WE ARE EXPECTING CIRRUS TO DRIFT OVERHEAD FROM TIME TO TIME
DURING THE NIGHT. ALSO, THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LOW CLOUDS TOWARD MORNING. A
WEAK IMPULSE TRAVELING IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW MAY TOUCH OFF
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AT THAT TIME, AS
WELL.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 65 TO 70
DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
YESTERDAY, THURSDAY LOOKED LIKE THE BETTER CONVECTIVE DAY. NOW IT
APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY. NOT THAT WEDNESDAY DAY APPEARS JUICIER
FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA, IT HAS MORE TO DO WITH THE DEMISE
OF THURSDAY AS A VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE PRODUCER.

SHORT WAVES EMANATING FROM THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
CONVECTION ARE PREDICTED TO COME AROUND THE SAME RIDGE. THE TIMING
COINCIDING WITH MAXIMUM HEATING OF THE DAY LOOKS BEST IN PA WHERE
WE HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS. CONFIDENCE AND LIKELIHOOD OF TSTMS
REACHING LOCATIONS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST IS LOWER. OUR
TIMING IS CLOSEST TO MODELING CONSENSUS, CAN RGEM FROM A RAIN
STANDPOINT WOULD BE MOST BENEFICIAL AS ITS TIMING IS ABOUT THREE
HOURS FASTER THAN ANY OTHER MODEL AND THUS BETTER COINCIDENCE OF
HEATING AND CONVECTION.

AS FAR AS STRONG/SEVERE GOES, MODEL PREDICTED MIX LAYER CAPES HAS
INCREASED FROM YESTERDAY AND IS NOW AVERAGING 1000-1500J, HIGHEST
NW. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A LEE SIDE OR SUSQ VLY TROF FORMING
WHICH SHOULD AID IN POOLING. PREDICTED BULK SHEAR IS EH, WITH 25KT
VALUES NWRN PART OF OUR CWA AND MUCH LESS SOUTHEAST. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WHERE TSTMS ARE MOST LIKELY ARE RATHER MODEST
(5.5C/KM), WE DO HAVE WARMER TEMPS AT 500MB ARRIVING. THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE 250MB JET IS STILL RATHER NORTHWEST. THE ONE PLUS IS
THAT MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS STILL PREDICTING APPROXIMATELY A 15C
DROP IN THETA E VALUES AND THE THETA E RIDGE IN ITSELF PASSES OVER
OUR CWA. IT LOOKS LIKE A CASE OF NON HOME GROWN STRONGER STORMS
INITIATING FIRST WITH NEARLY A CLIMO POTENTIAL OF A COUPLE STORMS
GOING SEVERE. BEST CHANCES NWRN PART OF OUR CWA. PWATS ARE PRETTY
HIGH, TOPPING AROUND 1.75", BUT MODELING IS SHOWING OK PROGRESSION
AND WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE, THE FLOODING THREAT (BEYOND POOR
DRAINAGE) IS RELATIVELY LOW.

AS FAR AS TEMPS GO, WE ARE GOING ABOVE ALL STAT GUIDANCE (A NEAR
STATUS QUO FROM TODAY) BASED ON PREDICTED 925MB TEMPS OF 20-21C.
THIS SHOULD GET US INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S (SANS ELEVATION AND
IMMEDIATE COAST) AS MODELING IDEA OF MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY LOOKS
OVERDONE. GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF A LEE SIDE TROF, WE ACCEPTED
STAT GUIDANCE DEW POINTS. THIS HAS PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES OF
AROUND 90F, WHICH IS BELOW EARLY SEASON HEADLINE THRESHOLDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST. A CDFNT WILL BE MOVG
ACRS THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PD AND WASH OUT ON THU THERE
CUD BE SOME SHRA/TSRA LINGERING WED NIGHT. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT IN THE MDLS AS TO AREAL COVERAGE AND HOW LONG ANY
PRECIP LINGERS. HOWEVER, ALL GUID HAS TRENDED DRIER, AND SOMETIMES
A PERSISTENCE FCST IS THE BEST APPROACH.

THE NAM AND GFS ARE NOW VIRTUALLY DRY ON THU, WITH THE CMC AND
ECMWF HAVING SOME PRECIP IN THE AFTN. AGAIN, THE TREND IS DRIER
AND POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD.

ON FRI, THE ECMWF HAS SOME PRECIP, WHILE THE GFS REMAINS DRY. THE
CMC HAS SOME PRECIP AS WELL. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. NOT MANY
TRIGGERS, EXCEPT FOR DAYTIME HEATING. SO CONTINUE THE TREND OF
LOWERING POPS.

THE NEXT FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH OVER THE WEEKEND. AS IS OFTEN
THE CASE, THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. THE EC KEEPS SAT
DRY, WHILE THE GFS BRINGS PRECIP IN LATE. BY SUN MRNG, THE GFS HAS
THE FRONT THRU THE AREA, WHILE THE ECMWF TRIES TO DEVELOP A WAVE
ON THE FRONT AND LINGER IT INTO EARLY MON.

WHILE THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SLOWER WITH THE FRONT AND
STALLING IT INVOF OUR AREA, THE 26/12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED MARKEDLY
DRIER WITH THE FCST BEYOND 12Z MON. IT IS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE GFS. NOT SURE IF THIS IS A ONE MDL RUN CHANGE OR THE
START OF A TREND, BUT HAVE BEGUN THE DOWNWARD PUSH ON POPS. IF THE
ECMWF CONTINUES THIS TREND, POPS MAY BE ABLE TO BE ELIMINATED FOR
PARTS OF EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS WILL BE AOA NRML THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

18Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR TOWARD WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

THIS EVENING...VFR. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO
15 KNOTS WITH PEAK GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS.

A SEA BREEZE FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MONMOUTH INTO NW OCEAN,
CENTRAL BURLINGTON, WESTERN ATLANTIC AND EASTERN CUMBERLAND. GIVEN
THE GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, THIS FRONT SHOULD HAVE A TOUGH
TIME ADVANCING MUCH FARTHER TO THE WEST.

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN WEST AND
NORTH OF TERMINALS.

OVERNIGHT...VFR. MID LEVEL DECK CIG FROM KPHL METRO AREA AIRPORTS
WEST AND NORTH. SOUTH WINDS DECREASING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE ABOUT A MVFR CIG
FORMING ALONG WITH MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT MORE RURAL AIRPORTS
AND TERMINALS. FOG WOULD BECOME MORE LIKELY IF MID DECK CIG DOES
NOT MATERIALIZE. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS.

WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...CIGS AND VSBYS BECOMING
VFR. CU DECK HEIGHT IS WEIGHED TOWARD START OF FCST PERIOD, IT
SHOULD BECOME HIGHER AS MORNING AND AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TSTMS WILL START FORMING WEST OF THE AREA,
TIMING FOR KPHL CLOSE TO 00Z SO NOT INCLUDED IN PRESENT TAF.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT...LINGERING SHRA/TSRA, ESPECIALLY EARLY. BETTER CHANCES
ACROSS RDG/ABE. MVFR/IFR PSBL IN SHRA/TSRA. MDT CONFIDENCE.

THU-SUN...EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS FOLLOWED BY SCT AFTN
SHRA/TSRA. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHICH DAYS AND AREAS WILL SEE
SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH AT THE COAST BASED NETWORKS SHOWING WIND GUSTS GETTING TO 25
KT AND WITH MODELING SHOWING SIMILAR SPEEDS ALOFT INTO WEDNESDAY,
WE DECIDED TO ISSUE A SCA. BETTER MIXING WILL BE RIGHT ALONG THE
COAST, WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER WINDS AND LESS GUSTINESS FARTHER
OFFSHORE.

WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN ON SEAS. REGARDLESS, SOME 5
FOOT SEAS REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY OFFSHORE. WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST, BASICALLY THERE IS A
SEPARATION OF STRONGEST WINDS (RIGHT ALONG THE COAST) FROM THE
HIGHEST SEAS (FARTHER OFFSHORE).

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT...SCA FLAG HAS BEEN RAISED FOR MARGINAL WIND BUT SEAS
AOA 5 FT.

THU THROUGH SAT...WIND AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA, BUT
CUD APPROACH SCA BY LATE SAT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOP 10 WARMEST MAY WILL OCCUR IN LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

THE FIRST 25 DAYS OF MAY IN OUR FORECAST AREA WERE AVERAGING
ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

RUNNING THE NUMBERS FROM THE FCST THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH WE
FIND THE FOLLOWING.

FOR PHILADELPHIA...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1874.
PROJECTING A MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 69 TO 70 RISING FROM
THE CURRENT VALUE OF 67.8, AT LEAST 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
HEADING FOR MOST LIKELY THE THIRD WARMEST MAY ON RECORD. WARMEST
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN MAY ON RECORD WAS 70.8 IN 1991. THEN 69.2
2004 AND 68.2 IN 2012.

FOR ALLENTOWN...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1922. THE MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IS CURRENTLY 63.9 DEGREES. IT IS LIKELY TO
INCREASE BY A DEGREE OR TWO LATER THIS WEEK, LEADING TO A TOP 10
WARMEST MAY THIS YEAR AT ALLENTOWN. THE WARMEST AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE IN MAY WAS 67.2 BACK IN 1991.

FOR WILMINGTON.... THE MONTH OF MAY IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE
TOP 5- 10 WARMEST. THE CURRENT MONTHLY TEMPERATURE IS 65.8 DEGREES
AND SHOULD RISE A DEGREE OR TWO BY MONTHS END. THE WARMEST MAY WAS
IN 1896 WHERE THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 70.1 DEGREES. IN 1991
THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 69.1 DEGREES.

FOR ATLANTIC CITY... THE MONTH IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE TOP
THREE WARMEST MAYS. CURRENTLY, THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE
MONTH IS 64.5 DEGREES AND IS LIKELY TO RISE A DEGREE TOR TWO BY
MONTHS END. THE WARMEST MAY WAS BACK IN 2004 WHERE THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE REACHED 66.9 DEGREES. IN 1991 THE MONTHLY AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE WAS 66 DEGREES. BOTH 2011 AND 2012 SAW A MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 65 DEGREES.

NORMAL FIRST DATE OF 90 OR HIGHER.

PHILADELPHIA MAY 29 ALLENTOWN MAY 30 WILMINGTON JUNE 4 ATLANTIC
CITY JUNE 11.

*************************************************************

HERE IS OUR ANNUAL LOOK AS TO HOW HOT, HOT, HOT THE SUMMER WILL
BE BASED ON PAST PERFORMANCES.

A FULL FLEDGED EL NINO IS UNDERWAY IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. ALL
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS KEEP IT GOING, THE DIFFERENCES
THAT EXIST ARE TO ITS STRENGTH THROUGH THIS UPCOMING SUMMER. THE
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS ARE AVERAGING A MODERATE EL NINO
FOR THE COMBINED SUMMER MONTHS. SOME MODELS, INCLUDING THE CFS2
AND ECMWF ARE PREDICTING A STRONG EL NINO. IN THE CPC MONITORING
EL NINO ERA STARTING SINCE 1950, THE HIGHEST (WARMEST) SUMMER
ANOMALY RECORDED WAS +1.5C (NEAR OR AT THE THRESHOLD FOR STRONG EL
NINOS) DURING THE SUMMER OF 1997.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL REALLY SEAL THE DEAL THAT THIS MAY WILL
BE UNSEASONABLY WARM IN PHILADELPHIA. IT "MAY" EVEN BE A TOP THREE
WARMEST. THIS FOLLOWS ON THE HEELS OF AN UNSEASONABLY WARM APRIL.
SINCE 1872, THE COMBINATION OF BOTH WARM (TOP THIRD OF ALL YEARS)
APRILS AND MAYS HAS ONLY OCCURRED TWENTY-THREE TIMES. BUT IT HAS
OCCURRED ELEVEN TIMES SINCE 1990 AND SIX OF THE LAST SEVEN
SPRINGS.

SO WE SCOURED THE CLIMATE RECORDS TO FIND BUDDING OR IN PROGRESS
EL NINOS THAT COINCIDED WITH BOTH WARM APRILS AND MAYS LOCALLY IN
THE CPC MONITORING ERA. WE FOUND THREE PAST SUMMERS THAT MET THE
CRITERIA. THE ONE SIGN IS THAT ALL THREE ANALOG SUMMERS WERE
WETTER THAN NORMAL, HOPEFULLY KEEPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS FROM
INTENSIFYING FURTHER.

THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE PREDICTIONS FOR THIS
UPCOMING SUMMER HAS WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER EXPECTED
IN OUR AREA. THE INTERNATIONAL MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE
SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC PREDICTING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION.

THE ANALOGS FOR PHILADELPHIA ARE:

YEAR    JUNE AVG   JULY AVG   AUGUST AVG   SUMMER AVG   SUMMER PCPN

1969      73.4        75.1      75.2         74.6        18.30
1977      68.6        77.8      76.2         74.2        15.50
1991      75.7        79.0      79.0         77.9        12.01
AVG       72.6        77.3      76.8         75.6        15.27

1981-
2010      73.3        78.1      76.6         76.0        11.28
NORMAL

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR OUR FORECAST AREA IS FOR EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GIGI/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GIGI/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...STAFF



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 262158
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
558 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH
PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE SLUG OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS SET TO RIDE
NORTHEAST INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH FAIRLY
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING AS IT DOES
SO. CAPE VALUES ARE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE AND LARGELY BELOW 1000
J/KG AS MID-LEVEL WARM AIR IS EFFECTIVELY LIMITING
INSTABILITY...HOWEVER WIND PROFILES ARE WORKING WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY TO MANIFEST SOME RATHER PERSISENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WITH SOME ORGANIZATION OVER OHIO. THIS WILL ALL CONTINUE TO THE
NORTHEAST...AND GIVEN SOME AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE COLUMN AS IT
DOES SO...PERIODIC GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RESULT AS THESE
CELLS DO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. ONE OR TWO OF THESE COULD BRIEFLY
PULSE SEVERE...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD SEVERE ACTIVITY IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA AS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ENCROACHES WILL LIKELY KEEP A FLOOR UNDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
LOWS WILL STAY LARGELY WELL INTO THE 60S. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO EXIT THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...THOUGH MARGINAL SHEAR VALUES SHOULD HELP
LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

RIDGING LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY WEATHER. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VARIOUS LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS AGREE ON STUBBORN BOUNDARY LAID
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE CHANCE
POPS WERE PRESERVED WITH THE SUPPORT OF A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER
OVER THE OUTCOME OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST IN
TERMS OF MAGNITUDE...POSITION...AND TIMING. THEREFORE PERSISTENCE
WAS HEAVILY USED IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AND LOW CHANCE
POPS WERE INTRODUCED.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL...MAINLY MVFR...IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE SUPPORTS MORE SHOWERS...AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR WESTERN PORTS. RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND A SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD CONTINUE THE DEGRADATION THROUGH THE NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IS INDICATED AS PRECIP CHANCES DECLINE
THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...PRECIP...AND RESTRICTION CHANCES WILL
AGAIN INCREASE WITH AN ENCROACING FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 262158
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
558 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH
PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE SLUG OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS SET TO RIDE
NORTHEAST INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH FAIRLY
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING AS IT DOES
SO. CAPE VALUES ARE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE AND LARGELY BELOW 1000
J/KG AS MID-LEVEL WARM AIR IS EFFECTIVELY LIMITING
INSTABILITY...HOWEVER WIND PROFILES ARE WORKING WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY TO MANIFEST SOME RATHER PERSISENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WITH SOME ORGANIZATION OVER OHIO. THIS WILL ALL CONTINUE TO THE
NORTHEAST...AND GIVEN SOME AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE COLUMN AS IT
DOES SO...PERIODIC GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RESULT AS THESE
CELLS DO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. ONE OR TWO OF THESE COULD BRIEFLY
PULSE SEVERE...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD SEVERE ACTIVITY IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA AS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ENCROACHES WILL LIKELY KEEP A FLOOR UNDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
LOWS WILL STAY LARGELY WELL INTO THE 60S. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO EXIT THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...THOUGH MARGINAL SHEAR VALUES SHOULD HELP
LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

RIDGING LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY WEATHER. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VARIOUS LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS AGREE ON STUBBORN BOUNDARY LAID
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE CHANCE
POPS WERE PRESERVED WITH THE SUPPORT OF A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER
OVER THE OUTCOME OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST IN
TERMS OF MAGNITUDE...POSITION...AND TIMING. THEREFORE PERSISTENCE
WAS HEAVILY USED IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AND LOW CHANCE
POPS WERE INTRODUCED.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL...MAINLY MVFR...IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE SUPPORTS MORE SHOWERS...AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR WESTERN PORTS. RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND A SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD CONTINUE THE DEGRADATION THROUGH THE NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IS INDICATED AS PRECIP CHANCES DECLINE
THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...PRECIP...AND RESTRICTION CHANCES WILL
AGAIN INCREASE WITH AN ENCROACING FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPHI 261936
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
336 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY
AND DISSIPATE AS IT TRIES TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MAY
STALL IN OUR VICINITY ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION OF THE 500MB RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST
LOOKED TOO WEAK AND DISPLACED TO THE EAST, POSSIBLY WHY ITS QPF WAS
SO MUCH FARTHER EAST TONIGHT THAN ANY OTHER MODEL. AT 850MB BOTH
THE GFS AND WRF-NMMB LOOKED EQUALLY GOOD, WHILE THE GFS LOOKED
BETTER 9WARMER) AT 925MB. THERE IS DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE
APPROACHING FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE, FOR TONIGHT GIVEN THE LACK OF
ROBUST UPSTREAM ACTIVITY, WE ARE GOING WITH THE NON-GFS CONSENSUS
FOR TONIGHT.

WITH THE 500MB RIDGE HOLDING TOUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST, WE ARE
KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG THE WESTERN/NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
OUR CWA WHERE SOME WEAKENING SHORT WAVES AND RESIDUAL PCPN MIGHT
MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA. BECAUSE OF THE FARTHER UPSTREAM CONVECTION AND
THE RIDGE AXIS EAST OF US, IT LOOKS TO BE A CLOUDIER NIGHT.
COUPLED WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS, BOTH POINT TO HIGHER AND MORE
UNCOMFORTABLE MIN TEMPERATURES. WE WENT CLOSE TO STAT GUIDANCE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
YESTERDAY, THURSDAY LOOKED LIKE THE BETTER CONVECTIVE DAY. NOW IT
APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY. NOT THAT WEDNESDAY DAY APPEARS JUICIER
FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA, IT HAS MORE TO DO WITH THE DEMISE
OF THURSDAY AS A VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE PRODUCER.

SHORT WAVES EMANATING FROM THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
CONVECTION ARE PREDICTED TO COME AROUND THE SAME RIDGE.
THE TIMING COINCIDING WITH MAXIMUM HEATING OF THE DAY
LOOKS BEST IN PA WHERE WE HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS.
CONFIDENCE AND LIKELIHOOD OF TSTMS REACHING LOCATIONS
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST IS LOWER. OUR TIMING IS
CLOSEST TO MODELING CONSENSUS, CAN RGEM FROM A RAIN STANDPOINT
WOULD BE MOST BENEFICIAL AS ITS TIMING IS ABOUT THREE HOURS
FASTER THAN ANY OTHER MODEL AND THUS BETTER COINCIDENCE OF HEATING
AND CONVECTION.

AS FAR AS STRONG/SEVERE GOES, MODEL PREDICTED MIX LAYER CAPES HAS
INCREASED FROM YESTERDAY AND IS NOW AVERAGING 1000-1500J, HIGHEST NW.
MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A LEE SIDE OR SUSQ VLY TROF FORMING WHICH
SHOULD AID IN POOLING. PREDICTED BULK SHEAR IS EH, WITH 25KT VALUES
NWRN PART OF OUR CWA AND MUCH LESS SOUTHEAST. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WHERE TSTMS ARE MOST LIKELY ARE RATHER MODEST (5.5C/KM), WE DO HAVE
WARMER TEMPS AT 500MB ARRIVING. THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 250MB
JET IS STILL RATHER NORTHWEST. THE ONE PLUS IS THAT MID LEVEL DRY
AIR IS STILL PREDICTING APPROXIMATELY A 15C DROP IN THETA E VALUES
AND THE THETA E RIDGE IN ITSELF PASSES OVER OUR CWA. IT LOOKS LIKE A
CASE OF NON HOME GROWN STRONGER STORMS INITIATING FIRST WITH NEARLY
A CLIMO POTENTIAL OF A COUPLE STORMS GOING SEVERE. BEST CHANCES NWRN
PART OF OUR CWA. PWATS ARE PRETTY HIGH, TOPPING AROUND 1.75", BUT
MODELING IS SHOWING OK PROGRESSION AND WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE,
THE FLOODING THREAT (BEYOND POOR DRAINAGE) IS RELATIVELY LOW.

AS FAR AS TEMPS GO, WE ARE GOING ABOVE ALL STAT GUIDANCE (A NEAR
STATUS QUO FROM TODAY) BASED ON PREDICTED 925MB TEMPS OF 20-21C.
THIS SHOULD GET US INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S (SANS ELEVATION AND
IMMEDIATE COAST) AS MODELING IDEA OF MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY LOOKS
OVERDONE. GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF A LEE SIDE TROF, WE ACCEPTED
STAT GUIDANCE DEW POINTS. THIS HAS PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES OF AROUND
90F, WHICH IS BELOW EARLY SEASON HEADLINE THRESHOLDS.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST. A CDFNT WILL BE MOVG ACRS
THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PD AND WASH OUT ON THU THERE CUD BE
SOME SHRA/TSRA LINGERING WED NIGHT. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN
THE MDLS AS TO AREAL COVERAGE AND HOW LONG ANY PRECIP LINGERS.
HOWEVER, ALL GUID HAS TRENDED DRIER, AND SOMETIMES A PERSISTENCE
FCST IS THE BEST APPROACH.

THE NAM AND GFS ARE NOW VIRTUALLY DRY ON THU, WITH THE CMC AND
ECMWF HAVING SOME PRECIP IN THE AFTN. AGAIN, THE TREND IS DRIER
AND POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD.

ON FRI, THE ECMWF HAS SOME PRECIP, WHILE THE GFS REMAINS DRY. THE
CMC HAS SOME PRECIP AS WELL. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. NOT MANY
TRIGGERS, EXCEPT FOR DAYTIME HEATING. SO CONTINUE THE TREND OF
LOWERING POPS.

THE NEXT FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH OVER THE WEEKEND. AS IS OFTEN
THE CASE, THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. THE EC KEEPS SAT
DRY, WHILE THE GFS BRINGS PRECIP IN LATE. BY SUN MRNG, THE GFS HAS
THE FRONT THRU THE AREA, WHILE THE ECMWF TRIES TO DEVELOP A WAVE
ON THE FRONT AND LINGER IT INTO EARLY MON.

WHILE THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SLOWER WITH THE FRONT AND
STALLING IT INVOF OUR AREA, THE 26/12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED MARKEDLY
DRIER WITH THE FCST BEYOND 12Z MON. IT IS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE GFS. NOT SURE IF THIS IS A ONE MDL RUN CHANGE OR THE
START OF A TREND, BUT HAVE BEGUN THE DOWNWARD PUSH ON POPS. IF THE
ECMWF CONTINUES THIS TREND, POPS MAY BE ABLE TO BE ELIMINATED
FOR PARTS OF EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS WILL BE AOA NRML THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

18Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR TOWARD WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...VFR WITH MID LEVEL
DECK CIG LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD MOST TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH PEAK
GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS.

A SEA BREEZE FRONT HAS FORMED AND EXTENDS FROM SE MONMOUTH INTO EASTERN
OCEAN, SOUTHEAST BURLINGTON, EASTERN ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL CAPE MAY.
GIVEN THE GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, THIS FRONT SHOULD HAVE A
TOUGH TIME ADVANCING FARTHER TO THE WEST THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN WEST
AND NORTH OF TERMINALS, LOWEST CONFIDENCE EARLY THIS EVE IN KRDG,
HIGHER CONFIDENCE KPHL TO COAST.

EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT...VFR. MID LEVEL DECK CIG FROM KPHL METRO
AREA AIRPORTS WEST AND NORTH. SOME RESIDUAL ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE NWRN AIRPORTS/TERMINALS, TOO LOW A CHANCE TO INCLUDE.
SOUTH WINDS DECREASING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE ABOUT A MVFR CIG
FORMING ALONG WITH MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT MORE RURAL AIRPORTS
AND TERMINALS. FOG WOULD BECOME MORE LIKELY IF MID DECK CIG DOES
NOT MATERIALIZE. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS.

WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...CIGS AND VSBYS BECOMING
VFR. CU DECK HEIGHT IS WEIGHED TOWARD START OF FCST PERIOD, IT
SHOULD BECOME HIGHER AS MORNING AND AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TSTMS WILL START FORMING WEST OF THE AREA,
TIMING FOR KPHL CLOSE TO 00Z SO NOT INCLUDED IN PRESENT TAF.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT...LINGERING SHRA/TSRA, ESPECIALLY EARLY. BETTER CHANCES
ACROSS RDG/ABE. MVFR/IFR PSBL IN SHRA/TSRA.  MDT CONFIDENCE.

THU-SUN...EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS FOLLOWED BY SCT AFTN
SHRA/TSRA. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHICH DAYS AND AREAS WILL SEE
SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH AT THE COAST BASED NETWORKS SHOWING WIND GUSTS GETTING TO 25
KT AND WITH MODELING SHOWING SIMILAR SPEEDS ALOFT INTO WEDNESDAY,
WE DECIDED TO ISSUE A SCA. BETTER MIXING WILL BE RIGHT ALONG THE
COAST, WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER WINDS AND LESS GUSTINESS FARTHER
OFFSHORE.

WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN ON SEAS. REGARDLESS, SOME
5 FOOT SEAS REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY OFFSHORE. WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST, BASICALLY THERE IS A SEPARATION
OF STRONGEST WINDS (RIGHT ALONG THE COAST) FROM THE HIGHEST SEAS
(FARTHER OFFSHORE).

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT...SCA FLAG HAS BEEN RAISED FOR MARGINAL WIND BUT SEAS
AOA 5 FT.

THU THROUGH SAT...WIND AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA, BUT
CUD APPROACH SCA BY LATE SAT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOP 10 WARMEST MAY WILL OCCUR IN LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

THE FIRST 25 DAYS OF MAY IN OUR FORECAST AREA WERE AVERAGING
ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

RUNNING THE NUMBERS FROM THE FCST THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH WE
FIND THE FOLLOWING.

FOR PHILADELPHIA...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1874.
PROJECTING A MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 69 TO 70 RISING FROM
THE CURRENT VALUE OF 67.8, AT LEAST 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
HEADING FOR MOST LIKELY THE THIRD WARMEST MAY ON RECORD. WARMEST
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN MAY ON RECORD WAS 70.8 IN 1991. THEN 69.2
2004 AND 68.2 IN 2012.

FOR ALLENTOWN...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1922. THE MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IS CURRENTLY 63.9 DEGREES. IT IS LIKELY TO
INCREASE BY A DEGREE OR TWO LATER THIS WEEK, LEADING TO A TOP 10
WARMEST MAY THIS YEAR AT ALLENTOWN. THE WARMEST AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE IN MAY WAS 67.2 BACK IN 1991.

FOR WILMINGTON.... THE MONTH OF MAY IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE
TOP 5- 10 WARMEST. THE CURRENT MONTHLY TEMPERATURE IS 65.8 DEGREES
AND SHOULD RISE A DEGREE OR TWO BY MONTHS END. THE WARMEST MAY WAS
IN 1896 WHERE THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 70.1 DEGREES. IN 1991
THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 69.1 DEGREES.

FOR ATLANTIC CITY... THE MONTH IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE TOP
THREE WARMEST MAYS. CURRENTLY, THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE
MONTH IS 64.5 DEGREES AND IS LIKELY TO RISE A DEGREE TOR TWO BY
MONTHS END. THE WARMEST MAY WAS BACK IN 2004 WHERE THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE REACHED 66.9 DEGREES. IN 1991 THE MONTHLY AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE WAS 66 DEGREES. BOTH 2011 AND 2012 SAW A MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 65 DEGREES.

NORMAL FIRST DATE OF 90 OR HIGHER.

PHILADELPHIA MAY 29 ALLENTOWN MAY 30 WILMINGTON JUNE 4 ATLANTIC
CITY JUNE 11.

*************************************************************

HERE IS OUR ANNUAL LOOK AS TO HOW HOT, HOT, HOT THE SUMMER WILL
BE BASED ON PAST PERFORMANCES.

A FULL FLEDGED EL NINO IS UNDERWAY IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. ALL
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS KEEP IT GOING, THE DIFFERENCES
THAT EXIST ARE TO ITS STRENGTH THROUGH THIS UPCOMING SUMMER. THE
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS ARE AVERAGING A MODERATE EL NINO
FOR THE COMBINED SUMMER MONTHS. SOME MODELS, INCLUDING THE CFS2
AND ECMWF ARE PREDICTING A STRONG EL NINO. IN THE CPC MONITORING
EL NINO ERA STARTING SINCE 1950, THE HIGHEST (WARMEST) SUMMER
ANOMALY RECORDED WAS +1.5C (NEAR OR AT THE THRESHOLD FOR STRONG EL
NINOS) DURING THE SUMMER OF 1997.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL REALLY SEAL THE DEAL THAT THIS MAY WILL
BE UNSEASONABLY WARM IN PHILADELPHIA. IT "MAY" EVEN BE A TOP THREE
WARMEST. THIS FOLLOWS ON THE HEELS OF AN UNSEASONABLY WARM APRIL.
SINCE 1872, THE COMBINATION OF BOTH WARM (TOP THIRD OF ALL YEARS)
APRILS AND MAYS HAS ONLY OCCURRED TWENTY-THREE TIMES. BUT IT HAS
OCCURRED ELEVEN TIMES SINCE 1990 AND SIX OF THE LAST SEVEN
SPRINGS.

SO WE SCOURED THE CLIMATE RECORDS TO FIND BUDDING OR IN PROGRESS
EL NINOS THAT COINCIDED WITH BOTH WARM APRILS AND MAYS LOCALLY IN
THE CPC MONITORING ERA. WE FOUND THREE PAST SUMMERS THAT MET THE
CRITERIA. THE ONE SIGN IS THAT ALL THREE ANALOG SUMMERS WERE
WETTER THAN NORMAL, HOPEFULLY KEEPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS FROM
INTENSIFYING FURTHER.

THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE PREDICTIONS FOR THIS
UPCOMING SUMMER HAS WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER EXPECTED
IN OUR AREA. THE INTERNATIONAL MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE
SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC PREDICTING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION.

THE ANALOGS FOR PHILADELPHIA ARE:

YEAR    JUNE AVG   JULY AVG   AUGUST AVG   SUMMER AVG   SUMMER PCPN

1969      73.4        75.1      75.2         74.6        18.30
1977      68.6        77.8      76.2         74.2        15.50
1991      75.7        79.0      79.0         77.9        12.01
AVG       72.6        77.3      76.8         75.6        15.27

1981-
2010      73.3        78.1      76.6         76.0        11.28
NORMAL

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR OUR FORECAST AREA IS FOR EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GIGI/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GIGI/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 261935
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
335 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO
THE WEEKEND. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SCT SHWRS/TSTRMS DVLP IVOF CHO
OVR THE NXT FEW HRS...DRIFT INTO LOUISA/FLUVANNA CNTYS BTWN 21-00Z
THEN DSPT BY 10 PM. KEPT A 20-30 POP FOR THIS ACTIVITY THIS EVE.
OTW...OFFSHORE RIDGE DOMINATES BUT EXPECT A FAIR AMT OF SC/ST TO
DEVELOP GIVEN THE INCRS IN LL MSTR. THUS WENT PT CLDY WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE THOUGH IT MAY TURN OUT MSTLY CLDY IN SOME AREAS
LATE TONITE. WARM AND HUMID WITH LOWS 65-70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OFFSHORE BERMUDA RIDGE CONTINUES THE SUMMER HEAT/HUMIDITY THRU
THE PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A PERSISTANT TROF WHICH WHEN
COMBINED WITH THE APPRCHG MSTR FROM THE WSW WILL LIKELY BE THE
TRIGGER FOR SCT CONVECTION. TIMING RATHER PROBLEMATIC GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE OF S/W ENERGY EJECTING NE FROM DSPTG MCS`S....BUT THE
EMPHASIS OF THIS FCST WILL BE FOR MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION EACH DAY. HIGHEST POPS (40-50%) WILL BE ACROSS THE NWRN
THIRD OF FA...20-30% REST OF FA XPCT THE NE CORNER OF NC WHERE LTL
IF ANY SUPPORT SEEN FOR PCPN. THREAT WILL BE FOR LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS
GIVEN THE PW`S AOA 1.5 INCHES...DP TMPS IN THE 60S AND RELATIVELY
WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE L-M80S...XCPT 70S AT
THE BEACHES. LOWS 65-70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF SAT WITH AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE BREAKING
DOWN OVER THE ERN SEABOARD AS A COLD FRNT DROPS INTO THE MED ATLC
REGION. THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES AMONGST MODELS IN REGARDS
TO WHEN THE FRNT MAKES IT INTO THE LOCAL AREA WHICH WOULD AFFECT
TIMING OF PCPN...WITH THE 12Z GFS FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECWMF. FOR
NOW WITH THIS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT WILL FORECAST 20-30% POPS SAT
INCREASING TO 30-50% SUN WITH THE FRNT IN THE VICINITY. EXPECT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BOTH DAYS WITH HIGHS AVGG IN THE MID TO UPR
80S. CHANCE OF RAIN CONTINUES INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS NOT
QUITE AS WARM AS THE WEEKEND...HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR
80S ON AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING S/SW
WINDS DURING THE 18Z TAF PERIOD...OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO AROUND 15
TO 20 KNOTS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTN AND TONIGHT WELL INLAND...BUT IS UNLIKELY TO AFFECT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS. ANY CONVECTION WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFT 18Z.

SOME MVFR DEVELOPED THIS MORNING OVER SE NORTH CAROLINA AND SCT TO
BKN STRATOCU AND CUMULUS CIGS ABOVE 3K FT HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT THE
TAF SITES. MOS OUTPUT AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUB VFR CONDS
MAY OCCUR WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT GUIDANCE IS RATHER INCONSISTENT.
TAFS ARE BASED PRIMARILY ON TRENDS OF THE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS
WHICH EMPHASIZE MVFR CIGS. WITH DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE
60S...WOULD EXPECT SOME PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS AS WELL...MAINLY
BETWEEN 10 AND 15Z.

OUTLOOK...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE...BUT LATE
AFTN/EVENING TSTMS ARE EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY
WITH LESSER CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN
SUNDAY. OUTSIDE OF TSTMS... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL...SOME
MVFR AND PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE LIKELY FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND
SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA ISSUED THIS MORNG FOR THE BAY CONTINUES THRU THIS EVENG. WITH A
SIMILAR PATTERN AS YESTERDAY WHICH HAD FREQUENT GUSTS TO 20 KT
EXPECT S WINDS TO PICK UP TO 15-20 KT LATER THIS AFTN AND EVENG. SUB-
SCA CONDS OVER THE OTHER WTRS WITH 15-20 KT WINDS OVER CSTL WTRS AND
10-15 KT OVER THE RIVERS AND SOUND. S FLOW CONTINUES INTO WED WITH
STRONG SFC HI PRES OFFSHORE. EXPECT SIMILAR WINDS AS TDA WITH WAVES
OVER THE BAY AT 2-3 FT AND SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS AT 2-4 FT. PRES
GRADIENT WEAKENS A BIT ON THU...AND WINDS SHOULD BE A FEW KT LESS
OVERALL. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN SLY AVGG 10-15 KT FOR THE MOST PART
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS/LSA



000
FXUS61 KLWX 261856
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
256 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING WARM HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OFF THE EAST COAST LEADING TO WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS MOVED OVER THE HIGHLANDS TODAY BUT
HAVE DISSPATED AS THEY APPROACHED THE BLUE RIDGE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE MTNS IN SW VA AND CENTRAL WV
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE
LOCATED. DUE TO THE LOCATION OF THE RIDGE...SHEAR IS WEAK ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME GROWING
AND LASTING AS THEY APPROACH THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FURTHER
EAST...SUBSIDENCE SHOULD WIN AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
IN LOW LYING AREAS. MOISTURE THAT IS TRAPPED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MAY PRODUCE LOW CLOUDS INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES FURTHER EAST WEDNESDAY AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. FALLING HEIGHTS...
MOISTURE AS WELL AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES COUPLED WITH A UPPER
LEVEL JET WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY.
MOISTURE FROM THE ACTIVITY ACROSS AL/GA WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST
TO EAST WEDNESDAY. THINNER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL LEAD TO HEATING AND MORE
INSTABILITY. SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL...AROUND 20-30KTS WITH THE
BEST SHEAR NEAR THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS SIMILAR TO TODAY...TUESDAY.
DUE TO THE MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES THAT MAY MOVE OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

WE ARE IN THE SUMMERTIME PATTERN W/ THE HIGH OFF THE CST. THIS WL
CONT TO DRAW WARMTH AND MOISTURE INTO THE MID ATLC WED NGT-THU
NGT. WHILE TSTMS WL BE PSBL BOTH WED EVE AND THU AFTN THERE DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH SHEAR OR A FORCING MECHANISM SO SVR THREAT
LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST.

TEMPS SHOULD RMN STEADY - HIGHS IN THE 80S...PSBLY A90 IN THE
CITIES. LOWS IN THE 60S...L70S IN THE CITIES.

A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD LINGER IN PARTS
OF THE AREA WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL REACH THE MIDDLE 80S WITH LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT GETTING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY. THE
EUROPEAN MODEL REMAINS THE SLOWER MODEL OVER THE GFS.
HOWEVER...THE GFS MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE FRONT SLOWING
DOWN AS WELL. A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT TENDS TO BE THE TREND.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY.

A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...HELPING TO COOL CONDITIONS DOWN A
LITTLE. HOWEVER...OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...PASSING
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO THE NORTH...AND A DEVELOPING LOW ALONG THE
FRONT COULD BRING ANOTHER THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE LIMITED WITH LOW LEVEL COOLER AIR EVENTUALLY WORKS ITS
WAY INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES MAY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
EACH PERIOD.

AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THESE DISTURBANCES COULD POSE A SHOWER THREAT
TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. -SHRA POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT CHO/IAD/DCA/BWI/MTN TONIGHT
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED AT THE SFC. SUB-MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE AT CHO BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. S WINDS
CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH -SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN TS AND GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE.

VFR CONDS XPCTD OUTSIDE OF ANY PSBL RW/TRW WED NGT-THU NGT. NO
PROBS XPCTD FRI.

VFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
IN THE AREA NEAR CHO OR MRB TERMINAL. VFR ELSEWHERE.

VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY AT MTN...BWI...DCA TERMINALS. MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS AT IAD...CHO...AND MRB TERMINALS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...

S WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ON THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF
POOLES ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. WIND FIELD SUBSIDES NORTH OF SANDY
POINT LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.

NO MARINE HAZARDS THURSDAY NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS GUSTING 20 KNOTS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ531-538-
     539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-
     537-540>543.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...HAS/WOODY!/KLW



000
FXUS61 KLWX 261856
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
256 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING WARM HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OFF THE EAST COAST LEADING TO WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS MOVED OVER THE HIGHLANDS TODAY BUT
HAVE DISSPATED AS THEY APPROACHED THE BLUE RIDGE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE MTNS IN SW VA AND CENTRAL WV
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE
LOCATED. DUE TO THE LOCATION OF THE RIDGE...SHEAR IS WEAK ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME GROWING
AND LASTING AS THEY APPROACH THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FURTHER
EAST...SUBSIDENCE SHOULD WIN AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
IN LOW LYING AREAS. MOISTURE THAT IS TRAPPED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MAY PRODUCE LOW CLOUDS INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES FURTHER EAST WEDNESDAY AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. FALLING HEIGHTS...
MOISTURE AS WELL AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES COUPLED WITH A UPPER
LEVEL JET WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY.
MOISTURE FROM THE ACTIVITY ACROSS AL/GA WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST
TO EAST WEDNESDAY. THINNER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL LEAD TO HEATING AND MORE
INSTABILITY. SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL...AROUND 20-30KTS WITH THE
BEST SHEAR NEAR THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS SIMILAR TO TODAY...TUESDAY.
DUE TO THE MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES THAT MAY MOVE OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

WE ARE IN THE SUMMERTIME PATTERN W/ THE HIGH OFF THE CST. THIS WL
CONT TO DRAW WARMTH AND MOISTURE INTO THE MID ATLC WED NGT-THU
NGT. WHILE TSTMS WL BE PSBL BOTH WED EVE AND THU AFTN THERE DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH SHEAR OR A FORCING MECHANISM SO SVR THREAT
LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST.

TEMPS SHOULD RMN STEADY - HIGHS IN THE 80S...PSBLY A90 IN THE
CITIES. LOWS IN THE 60S...L70S IN THE CITIES.

A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD LINGER IN PARTS
OF THE AREA WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL REACH THE MIDDLE 80S WITH LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT GETTING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY. THE
EUROPEAN MODEL REMAINS THE SLOWER MODEL OVER THE GFS.
HOWEVER...THE GFS MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE FRONT SLOWING
DOWN AS WELL. A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT TENDS TO BE THE TREND.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY.

A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...HELPING TO COOL CONDITIONS DOWN A
LITTLE. HOWEVER...OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...PASSING
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO THE NORTH...AND A DEVELOPING LOW ALONG THE
FRONT COULD BRING ANOTHER THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE LIMITED WITH LOW LEVEL COOLER AIR EVENTUALLY WORKS ITS
WAY INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES MAY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
EACH PERIOD.

AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THESE DISTURBANCES COULD POSE A SHOWER THREAT
TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. -SHRA POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT CHO/IAD/DCA/BWI/MTN TONIGHT
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED AT THE SFC. SUB-MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE AT CHO BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. S WINDS
CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH -SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN TS AND GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE.

VFR CONDS XPCTD OUTSIDE OF ANY PSBL RW/TRW WED NGT-THU NGT. NO
PROBS XPCTD FRI.

VFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
IN THE AREA NEAR CHO OR MRB TERMINAL. VFR ELSEWHERE.

VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY AT MTN...BWI...DCA TERMINALS. MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS AT IAD...CHO...AND MRB TERMINALS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...

S WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ON THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF
POOLES ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. WIND FIELD SUBSIDES NORTH OF SANDY
POINT LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.

NO MARINE HAZARDS THURSDAY NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS GUSTING 20 KNOTS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ531-538-
     539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-
     537-540>543.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...HAS/WOODY!/KLW




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 261841
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
241 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH
PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND UPPER
OHIO VALLEY REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MAINTAINED A PERIOD
OF LIKELY POPS WITH THIS FEATURE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING...THOUGH MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO INHIBIT INSTABILITY. DESPITE INCREASED FLOW
ALOFT...DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROJECTIONS ARE MARGINAL...AND WITH NAM
SURFACE DEWPOINTS AS USUAL OVERDONE...THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS
MARGINAL AND LIMITED TO OHIO THIS EVENING. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED
BY THE MORNING INSTABILITY CHART. ABOVE AVERAGE LOWS WERE FORECAST
CLOSE TO THE LATEST SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO EXIT THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...THOUGH MARGINAL SHEAR VALUES SHOULD HELP
LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

RIDGING LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY WEATHER. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VARIOUS LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS AGREE ON STUBBORN BOUNDARY LAID
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE CHANCE
POPS WERE PRESERVED WITH THE SUPPORT OF A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER
OVER THE OUTCOME OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST IN
TERMS OF MAGNITUDE...POSITION...AND TIMING. THEREFORE PERSISTENCE
WAS HEAVILY USED IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AND LOW CHANCE
POPS WERE INTRODUCED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL...MAINLY MVFR...IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE SUPPORTS MORE SHOWERS...AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR WESTERN PORTS. RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND A SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD CONTINUE THE DEGRADATION THROUGH THE NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IS INDICATED AS PRECIP CHANCES DECLINE
THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...PRECIP...AND RESTRICTION CHANCES WILL
AGAIN INCREASE WITH AN ENCROACING FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/15




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 261841
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
241 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH
PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND UPPER
OHIO VALLEY REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MAINTAINED A PERIOD
OF LIKELY POPS WITH THIS FEATURE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING...THOUGH MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO INHIBIT INSTABILITY. DESPITE INCREASED FLOW
ALOFT...DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROJECTIONS ARE MARGINAL...AND WITH NAM
SURFACE DEWPOINTS AS USUAL OVERDONE...THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS
MARGINAL AND LIMITED TO OHIO THIS EVENING. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED
BY THE MORNING INSTABILITY CHART. ABOVE AVERAGE LOWS WERE FORECAST
CLOSE TO THE LATEST SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO EXIT THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...THOUGH MARGINAL SHEAR VALUES SHOULD HELP
LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

RIDGING LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY WEATHER. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VARIOUS LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS AGREE ON STUBBORN BOUNDARY LAID
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE CHANCE
POPS WERE PRESERVED WITH THE SUPPORT OF A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER
OVER THE OUTCOME OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST IN
TERMS OF MAGNITUDE...POSITION...AND TIMING. THEREFORE PERSISTENCE
WAS HEAVILY USED IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AND LOW CHANCE
POPS WERE INTRODUCED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL...MAINLY MVFR...IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE SUPPORTS MORE SHOWERS...AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR WESTERN PORTS. RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND A SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD CONTINUE THE DEGRADATION THROUGH THE NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IS INDICATED AS PRECIP CHANCES DECLINE
THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...PRECIP...AND RESTRICTION CHANCES WILL
AGAIN INCREASE WITH AN ENCROACING FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/15



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 261829
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
229 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO
THE WEEKEND. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CRNT FCST ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDS
TODAY. INCRG LL MSTR RESULTING IN SCT-BKN SC/CU LATE THIS AM.
OFFSHORE RIDGE HOLDING FIRM WHILE WEAK S/W ENERGY CONTS TO TRACK
NE ACROSS THE MTS. LTST HIGH RES DATA SUGGESTS SCT CONVECTION
DVLPS ACROSS THE MTS IVOF SFC TROF DVLPMNT. A FEW ECHOES MAY
CROSS XTREME WRN MOST CNTYS AFTR 4 PM. OTW...A PT TO MSTLY SUNNY
AND WARM AFTRN AHEAD. HIGHS IN THE L-M80S XCPT REMAINING IN THE
70S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANY REMNANT CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT WILL DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A WARM NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY 65-70
WITH A LIGHT TO SLIGHTLY BREEZY SOUTH WIND.

THE BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS STEADFAST OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE
THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND WED...AND THEN ALONG THE
ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WED NIGHT/THU. THIS TROUGH WILL BE A KEY
PLAYER IN THE WEATHER ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM WED
THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL BREAK DOWN
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND FLATTEN THE AXIS TO BE MORE IN LINE
WITH THE SE COAST FROM NORTH CAROLINA TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC AND GULF OF MEXICO TO STREAM
INTO THE AREA AND ALSO FOR WAA PROCESSES TO ERODE AWAY AT THE
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE SINCE THE
PAST WEEKEND. THE END RESULT WILL BE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS (SHIFTING FROM WEST TO EAST EACH DAY)
AS REMNANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM MCS ACTIVITY IN THE GULF COAST
STATES ROUNDS THE TROUGH AND RIDES UP INTO THE REGION ON THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF THE MID/UPPER RIDGE. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT HOWEVER. ALSO...
EXPECT INCREASING HIGH/LOW TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS AS WAA PROCESSES
BEGIN TO ERODE AWAY AT THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS THAT HAS
BEEN IN PLACE SINCE THIS PAST WEEKEND. INCREASED MOISTURE (VIA
DEWPOINTS AND INCOMING SHORTWAVES)...INCREASED PWATS TO 1.50-2.00
INCHES...SATURATED SOUNDING PROFILES ABOVE 700-500MB...AND WEAK
STEERING FLOW ALOFT ALL SUGGEST THAT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
MAIN IMPACT WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 80S WED/THU (ABOUT
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). EXPECT TEMPS TO BE IN THE LOW-MID 80S
AT THE BEACHES. LOW TEMPS WED/THU NIGHTS 65-70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
EACH DAY AND TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR TSTMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NW AREAS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN DURING THE
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NW AND
SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY LATE IN THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

GUIDANCE HAS H85 TEMPERATURES GETTING NO HIGHER THAN 16C. CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WILL ALSO HOLD READINGS
DOWN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 85 TO 90 INLAND
AND UPR 70S TO LWR 80S NEAR THE COAST. IT WILL BE MODERATELY HUMID
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 65-70 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING S/SW
WINDS DURING THE 18Z TAF PERIOD...OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO AROUND 15
TO 20 KNOTS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTN AND TONIGHT WELL INLAND...BUT IS UNLIKELY TO AFFECT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS. ANY CONVECTION WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFT 18Z.

SOME MVFR DEVELOPED THIS MORNING OVER SE NORTH CAROLINA AND SCT TO
BKN STRATOCU AND CUMULUS CIGS ABOVE 3K FT HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT THE
TAF SITES. MOS OUTPUT AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUB VFR CONDS
MAY OCCUR WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT GUIDANCE IS RATHER INCONSISTENT.
TAFS ARE BASED PRIMARILY ON TRENDS OF THE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS
WHICH EMPHASIZE MVFR CIGS. WITH DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE
60S...WOULD EXPECT SOME PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS AS WELL...MAINLY
BETWEEN 10 AND 15Z.

OUTLOOK...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE...BUT LATE
AFTN/EVENING TSTMS ARE EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY
WITH LESSER CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN
SUNDAY. OUTSIDE OF TSTMS... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL...SOME
MVFR AND PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE LIKELY FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND
SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
10 AM UPDATE...ISSUED SCA FOR 1 PM TO 1 AM FOR THE BAY AS MODEL
GUIDANCE IS MORE SUPPORTIVE FOR INCREASING WINDS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. LATEST NAM12 SHOWS
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING OVER THE SAME AREA LATER TODAY. ALSO
WINDS INCREASED TO NEAR SCA AT A FEW LOCATIONS MONDAY EVENING AND
MODELS INDICATE STRONGER WINDS THIS EVENING AS COMPARED WITH
MONDAY EVENING. WILL EVALUATE FOR THE RIVERS BUT AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT LATEST DATA TRENDS AND THE LACK OF FETCH WITH A SOUTH
WIND ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF SCA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID ATLC COAST
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACRS ONTARIO CANADA.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL...WITH SOME MINOR DIRECTION CHANGES
ON A DIURNAL BASIS (SSE MIDDAY THROUGH EVENING TO SSW OVERNIGHT
THROUGH THE MORNING). PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY AND WED IS TIGHT
ENOUGH THAT WINDS SHOULD AVG 10 TO 15 KT...WITH SOME INCREASE IN
THE LATE AFTN/EVENING RESULTING IN GUSTS TO 20 KT. OVERALL STILL
FEEL THIS IS TOO MARGINAL TO RAISE ANY SCA HEADLINES ACRS THE
BAY/RIVERS/SOUND BUT BOATING CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE IDEAL AND
WAVES IN THE BAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AT 2-3 FT WITH COASTAL
SEAS BUILDING TO 3-4 FT. GRADIENT WEAKENS A BIT ON THU...AND WINDS
SHOULD BE A FEW KT LESS OVERALL. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN SOUTHERLY
FOR THE MOST PART INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD/MPR
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LKB/MAS/LSA



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 261829
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
229 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO
THE WEEKEND. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CRNT FCST ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDS
TODAY. INCRG LL MSTR RESULTING IN SCT-BKN SC/CU LATE THIS AM.
OFFSHORE RIDGE HOLDING FIRM WHILE WEAK S/W ENERGY CONTS TO TRACK
NE ACROSS THE MTS. LTST HIGH RES DATA SUGGESTS SCT CONVECTION
DVLPS ACROSS THE MTS IVOF SFC TROF DVLPMNT. A FEW ECHOES MAY
CROSS XTREME WRN MOST CNTYS AFTR 4 PM. OTW...A PT TO MSTLY SUNNY
AND WARM AFTRN AHEAD. HIGHS IN THE L-M80S XCPT REMAINING IN THE
70S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANY REMNANT CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT WILL DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A WARM NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY 65-70
WITH A LIGHT TO SLIGHTLY BREEZY SOUTH WIND.

THE BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS STEADFAST OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE
THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND WED...AND THEN ALONG THE
ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WED NIGHT/THU. THIS TROUGH WILL BE A KEY
PLAYER IN THE WEATHER ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM WED
THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL BREAK DOWN
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND FLATTEN THE AXIS TO BE MORE IN LINE
WITH THE SE COAST FROM NORTH CAROLINA TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC AND GULF OF MEXICO TO STREAM
INTO THE AREA AND ALSO FOR WAA PROCESSES TO ERODE AWAY AT THE
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE SINCE THE
PAST WEEKEND. THE END RESULT WILL BE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS (SHIFTING FROM WEST TO EAST EACH DAY)
AS REMNANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM MCS ACTIVITY IN THE GULF COAST
STATES ROUNDS THE TROUGH AND RIDES UP INTO THE REGION ON THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF THE MID/UPPER RIDGE. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT HOWEVER. ALSO...
EXPECT INCREASING HIGH/LOW TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS AS WAA PROCESSES
BEGIN TO ERODE AWAY AT THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS THAT HAS
BEEN IN PLACE SINCE THIS PAST WEEKEND. INCREASED MOISTURE (VIA
DEWPOINTS AND INCOMING SHORTWAVES)...INCREASED PWATS TO 1.50-2.00
INCHES...SATURATED SOUNDING PROFILES ABOVE 700-500MB...AND WEAK
STEERING FLOW ALOFT ALL SUGGEST THAT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
MAIN IMPACT WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 80S WED/THU (ABOUT
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). EXPECT TEMPS TO BE IN THE LOW-MID 80S
AT THE BEACHES. LOW TEMPS WED/THU NIGHTS 65-70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
EACH DAY AND TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR TSTMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NW AREAS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN DURING THE
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NW AND
SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY LATE IN THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

GUIDANCE HAS H85 TEMPERATURES GETTING NO HIGHER THAN 16C. CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WILL ALSO HOLD READINGS
DOWN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 85 TO 90 INLAND
AND UPR 70S TO LWR 80S NEAR THE COAST. IT WILL BE MODERATELY HUMID
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 65-70 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING S/SW
WINDS DURING THE 18Z TAF PERIOD...OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO AROUND 15
TO 20 KNOTS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTN AND TONIGHT WELL INLAND...BUT IS UNLIKELY TO AFFECT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS. ANY CONVECTION WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFT 18Z.

SOME MVFR DEVELOPED THIS MORNING OVER SE NORTH CAROLINA AND SCT TO
BKN STRATOCU AND CUMULUS CIGS ABOVE 3K FT HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT THE
TAF SITES. MOS OUTPUT AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUB VFR CONDS
MAY OCCUR WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT GUIDANCE IS RATHER INCONSISTENT.
TAFS ARE BASED PRIMARILY ON TRENDS OF THE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS
WHICH EMPHASIZE MVFR CIGS. WITH DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE
60S...WOULD EXPECT SOME PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS AS WELL...MAINLY
BETWEEN 10 AND 15Z.

OUTLOOK...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE...BUT LATE
AFTN/EVENING TSTMS ARE EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY
WITH LESSER CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN
SUNDAY. OUTSIDE OF TSTMS... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL...SOME
MVFR AND PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE LIKELY FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND
SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
10 AM UPDATE...ISSUED SCA FOR 1 PM TO 1 AM FOR THE BAY AS MODEL
GUIDANCE IS MORE SUPPORTIVE FOR INCREASING WINDS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. LATEST NAM12 SHOWS
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING OVER THE SAME AREA LATER TODAY. ALSO
WINDS INCREASED TO NEAR SCA AT A FEW LOCATIONS MONDAY EVENING AND
MODELS INDICATE STRONGER WINDS THIS EVENING AS COMPARED WITH
MONDAY EVENING. WILL EVALUATE FOR THE RIVERS BUT AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT LATEST DATA TRENDS AND THE LACK OF FETCH WITH A SOUTH
WIND ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF SCA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID ATLC COAST
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACRS ONTARIO CANADA.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL...WITH SOME MINOR DIRECTION CHANGES
ON A DIURNAL BASIS (SSE MIDDAY THROUGH EVENING TO SSW OVERNIGHT
THROUGH THE MORNING). PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY AND WED IS TIGHT
ENOUGH THAT WINDS SHOULD AVG 10 TO 15 KT...WITH SOME INCREASE IN
THE LATE AFTN/EVENING RESULTING IN GUSTS TO 20 KT. OVERALL STILL
FEEL THIS IS TOO MARGINAL TO RAISE ANY SCA HEADLINES ACRS THE
BAY/RIVERS/SOUND BUT BOATING CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE IDEAL AND
WAVES IN THE BAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AT 2-3 FT WITH COASTAL
SEAS BUILDING TO 3-4 FT. GRADIENT WEAKENS A BIT ON THU...AND WINDS
SHOULD BE A FEW KT LESS OVERALL. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN SOUTHERLY
FOR THE MOST PART INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD/MPR
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LKB/MAS/LSA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 261658
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1258 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST WEDNESDAY AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT TRIES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND STALL IN OUR VICINITY ON
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOOKING AT THE 12Z UA ANALYSIS, NOT MUCH TO GET ATMOSPHERICALLY
EXCITED ABOUT TODAY. INFLUENCE OF NEARBY RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO HAVE A PROTECTIVE DOME OVER MOST OF OUR CWA. 925MB MOISTURE
IS LACKING NEARBY UNTIL ONE GETS TO ROANOKE. CORE OF WARMEST AIR
IS ACTUALLY OVER OUR CWA WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ADVECTING IN
FROM VA AND NC. SIMILAR SCENARIO MOISTURE AND THERMALLY AT 850
MB. AT 700MB SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IS COMING FROM THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS ALONG WITH MORE MID LEVEL MOISTURE, NOT GREAT FOR
DOWNDRAFTS. AT 500MB, AIR MASS IS 1 TO 2C WARMER UPWIND AND THE
JET AT 300MB AND 250MB IS DISPLACED TOO FAR TO THE NORTHWEST.
LATEST SREF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR REMAINS LESS THAN 30KTS FOR
TODAY WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES OF LESS THAN 1000J. MESOSCALE MODELS
DO SHOW SOME CONVECTION OCCURRING IN OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED
LOCATIONS WITH POSSIBLY CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE BLUE RIDGE
ADVECTING INTO OUR PART OF MD OR PA THIS EVENING. OVERALL THIS IS
ALL LEANING TO NO CHANGE IN THE GENERAL ONGOING FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

12Z SOUNDINGS CORROBORATE ONGOING FORECAST MAX TEMPS AND IF ONE
LIKES THE +10F 10 AM RULE, PHL`S MAX TEMP TODAY WILL BE 87.

FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT DAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY TODAY OWING TO THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND
THE HIGH, IT WON`T BE ON PAR WITH A QUINTESSENTIAL MUGGY SUMMER DAY
IN THE MID ATLANTIC. OFFICIAL TEMP FORECAST FALLS ON THE WARMER
ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE AFTER TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE RECENT COOL BIAS
EXHIBITED BY THE MODELS. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY TO BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S WHICH IS GENERALLY ON PAR WITH YESTERDAY, IF NOT A DEGREE
OR TWO WARMER. DID NOT QUITE GO HIGH ENOUGH TO FORECAST THE FIRST 90
DEGREE DAY OF THE SEASON FOR PHILADELPHIA, BUT THE POSSIBILITY
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT JUST EAST OF THE EAST
COAST TODAY. THE LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE
WILL WEAKEN OVERHEAD A BIT, WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME POP UP SHOWERS
AND STORMS FORMING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE PA AND NW NJ. THE
WINDOW FOR CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WHEN
DIURNAL INSTABILITY PEAKS AND A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MOVES AROUND THE RIDGE AND
INTO EASTERN PA. MLCAPE PROFILES BELOW 1000 J/KG AND DEEP-LAYER BULK
SHEAR BELOW 25 KT ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSE/ORGANIZED STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE TONIGHT WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH. HOURLY POPS FOR TONIGHT EXHIBIT A SEMI-
DIURNAL TREND; DECREASING AFTER SUNSET DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER, ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY LAST INTO PART OF THE
NIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA.

AT THE VERY LEAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND KEEP TEMPS
WARMER THAN IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. FORECAST LOWS ARE GENERALLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL, BUT THERE MAY
BE PATCHY FOG THAT DEVELOPS TOWARD DAWN AT INLAND LOCATIONS THAT
RECEIVE ANY RAINFALL TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS EAST COAST RIDGING AS THE DOMINANT FORCE
THROUGH MOST OF THE LONGTERM PERIOD, WITH A RIPPLE OR TWO. BY THE
WEEKEND THE RIDGING BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN, MOVES OFF TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST, WHILE GREAT LAKES TROUGHING STARTS TO PUSH IN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

OVERALL THE LONGTERM REMAINS IN TACT FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT WITH
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON TIME
PERIOD...BETTER WEST THAN EAST WITH LEE TROUGHING POSSIBLE AND
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS.

WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. EXPECTING A THERMAL/LEE SIDE TROUGH TO DEVELOP TO OUR
IMMEDIATE WEST DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS AND SLOWLY MOVE IT TO
THE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. BETTER HEATING ALONG THE RIDGE
TOPS SHOULD BE THE PRIME FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHERE HIGHER SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES SETUP AND
SOMEWHAT BETTER 0-4KM SHEAR VALUES...AROUND 35 KNOTS. ONE ISSUE IS
STRICTLY TIED TO THE TIMING OF THE TROUGHS PASSAGE AS THE SHEAR
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NONE-THE-LESS
POP-UP/AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH BETTER ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND NORTH. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
STRONG, HIGH PWATS WILL ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
TEMPERATURES STILL RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH COULD END UP A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER IN
PLACE.

NOT EXPECTING TO HAVE ISSUES WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AS WE SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MIX OUT THE DEWPOINTS A BIT, THOUGH MUCH LESS THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS, AND KEEP VALUES SLIGHTLY STICKIER THAN PREDICTED AFTERNOON
MAXES.

THURSDAY - FRIDAY...COLD FRONT LOOKS TO STALL AND EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY. THE FORCING WITH THE FRONT
DECREASES WITH TIME BECOMING NIL BY FRIDAY. AGAIN, WITH A WARM
AIRMASS IN PLACE, THOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS, WE WILL
HAVE PLENTY OF DEWPOINT POOLING OCCURRING TO KEEP THE CHANCE POPS
BOTH DAYS...DIFFUSE FRONT WILL ACT AS A MOISTURE CONDUIT WITH
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN BEING THE BIGGER ISSUE COMPARED TO SEVERE
STORMS.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...WE WILL KEY ON SUNDAY VS SATURDAY AS THE
CONVECTIVELY MORE ACTIVE DAY GIVEN THE BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS AND
OVERALL TENDENCY FOR A SLOWER TIMING. POPS HIT A RELATIVE LOW ON
SATURDAY BEFORE RAMPING UP AGAIN ON SUNDAY. ALSO GIVEN THE SLOWER
FRONTAL TIMING, MAX TEMPS ARE MUCH CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE AND EC MOS
GUIDANCE THAN GFS MOS.

MONDAY...INITIAL LOOK AT MONDAY HAS THE FRONT STALLED JUST SOUTH OF
OUR CWA, THIS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY COOLER WITH STILL SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND. EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO KEEP
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE REGION WHICH MAY PRODUCE A MUCH NEEDED
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WITH SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS...JET INTERACTION AND PASSING SHORTWAVES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

18Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR TOWARD WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...VFR WITH MID LEVEL
DECK CIG LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD MOST TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH PEAK
GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS. NO DEFINABLE SEA BREEZE FRONT. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF
TERMINALS, LOWEST CONFIDENCE EARLY THIS EVE IN KRDG, HIGHER
CONFIDENCE KPHL TO COAST.

EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT...VFR. MID LEVEL DECK CIG FROM KPHL METRO
AREA AIRPORTS WEST AND NORTH. SOUTH WINDS DECREASING TO 5 TO 10
KNOTS.

EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE ABOUT A MVFR CIG
FORMING ALONG WITH MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT MORE RURAL AIRPORTS
AND TERMINALS. FOG WOULD BECOME MORE LIKELY IF MID DECK CIG DOES
NOT MATERIALIZE. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS.

WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...CIGS AND VSBYS BECOMING
VFR. CU DECK HEIGHT IS WEIGHED TOWARD START OF FCST PERIOD, IT
SHOULD BECOME HIGHER AS MORNING AND AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TSTMS WILL START FORMING WEST OF THE AREA,
TIMING FOR KPHL CLOSE TO 00Z SO NOT INCLUDED IN PRESENT TAF.


OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS...BETTER CHANCES
ACROSS RDG/ABE.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS FOLLOWED BY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING WAS CANCELLED AS WINDS ARE BELOW 20 KT AND SEAS 4 FT OR
LESS.

DEBATED ON WHETHER OR NOT TO ISSUE A SCA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FOR A PERIOD LATE IN THE DAY TODAY
AND WAVES WILL RESPOND ACCORDINGLY. OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY MARINE
HEADLINE SINCE THE WIND FIELD WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER THIS AFTERNOON
THAN YESTERDAY, SO NEAR-SHORE GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE BELOW 25 KT.
WINDS WILL BE STRONGER A FEW MILES OFFSHORE BUT MIXING WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER DUE TO THE COOLER WATERS. SEAS TONIGHT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE AROUND 4 FT IN THE COASTAL ATLANTIC.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
INPLACE. GUSTS MAY REACH 25 KNOTS WITH SEAS REACHING 5 FEET ON
THE OCEAN WATERS. STILL DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A SCA
ON THIS SHIFT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD BE BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS A WEAKER PRESSURE PATTERN SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOP 10 WARMEST MAY WILL OCCUR IN LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

THE FIRST 25 DAYS OF MAY IN OUR FORECAST AREA WERE AVERAGING
ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

RUNNING THE NUMBERS FROM THE FCST THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH WE
FIND THE FOLLOWING.

FOR PHILADELPHIA...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1874.
PROJECTING A MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 69 TO 70 RISING FROM
THE CURRENT VALUE OF 67.8, AT LEAST 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
HEADING FOR MOST LIKELY THE THIRD WARMEST MAY ON RECORD. WARMEST
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN MAY ON RECORD WAS 70.8 IN 1991. THEN 69.2
2004 AND 68.2 IN 2012.

FOR ALLENTOWN...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1922. THE MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IS CURRENTLY 63.9 DEGREES. IT IS LIKELY TO
INCREASE BY A DEGREE OR TWO LATER THIS WEEK, LEADING TO A TOP 10
WARMEST MAY THIS YEAR AT ALLENTOWN. THE WARMEST AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE IN MAY WAS 67.2 BACK IN 1991.

FOR WILMINGTON.... THE MONTH OF MAY IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE
TOP 5- 10 WARMEST. THE CURRENT MONTHLY TEMPERATURE IS 65.8 DEGREES
AND SHOULD RISE A DEGREE OR TWO BY MONTHS END. THE WARMEST MAY WAS
IN 1896 WHERE THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 70.1 DEGREES. IN 1991
THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 69.1 DEGREES.

FOR ATLANTIC CITY... THE MONTH IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE TOP
THREE WARMEST MAYS. CURRENTLY, THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE
MONTH IS 64.5 DEGREES AND IS LIKELY TO RISE A DEGREE TOR TWO BY
MONTHS END. THE WARMEST MAY WAS BACK IN 2004 WHERE THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE REACHED 66.9 DEGREES. IN 1991 THE MONTHLY AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE WAS 66 DEGREES. BOTH 2011 AND 2012 SAW A MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 65 DEGREES.

NORMAL FIRST DATE OF 90 OR HIGHER.

PHILADELPHIA MAY 29 ALLENTOWN MAY 30 WILMINGTON JUNE 4 ATLANTIC
CITY JUNE 11.

*************************************************************

HERE IS OUR ANNUAL LOOK AS TO HOW HOT, HOT, HOT THE SUMMER WILL
BE BASED ON PAST PERFORMANCES.

A FULL FLEDGED EL NINO IS UNDERWAY IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. ALL
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS KEEP IT GOING, THE DIFFERENCES
THAT EXIST ARE TO ITS STRENGTH THROUGH THIS UPCOMING SUMMER. THE
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS ARE AVERAGING A MODERATE EL NINO
FOR THE COMBINED SUMMER MONTHS. SOME MODELS, INCLUDING THE CFS2
AND ECMWF ARE PREDICTING A STRONG EL NINO. IN THE CPC MONITORING
EL NINO ERA STARTING SINCE 1950, THE HIGHEST (WARMEST) SUMMER
ANOMALY RECORDED WAS +1.5C (NEAR OR AT THE THRESHOLD FOR STRONG EL
NINOS) DURING THE SUMMER OF 1997.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL REALLY SEAL THE DEAL THAT THIS MAY WILL
BE UNSEASONABLY WARM IN PHILADELPHIA. IT "MAY" EVEN BE A TOP THREE
WARMEST. THIS FOLLOWS ON THE HEELS OF AN UNSEASONABLY WARM APRIL.
SINCE 1872, THE COMBINATION OF BOTH WARM (TOP THIRD OF ALL YEARS)
APRILS AND MAYS HAS ONLY OCCURRED TWENTY-THREE TIMES. BUT IT HAS
OCCURRED ELEVEN TIMES SINCE 1990 AND SIX OF THE LAST SEVEN
SPRINGS.

SO WE SCOURED THE CLIMATE RECORDS TO FIND BUDDING OR IN PROGRESS
EL NINOS THAT COINCIDED WITH BOTH WARM APRILS AND MAYS LOCALLY IN
THE CPC MONITORING ERA. WE FOUND THREE PAST SUMMERS THAT MET THE
CRITERIA. THE ONE SIGN IS THAT ALL THREE ANALOG SUMMERS WERE
WETTER THAN NORMAL, HOPEFULLY KEEPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS FROM
INTENSIFYING FURTHER.

THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE PREDICTIONS FOR THIS
UPCOMING SUMMER HAS WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER EXPECTED
IN OUR AREA. THE INTERNATIONAL MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE
SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC PREDICTING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION.

THE ANALOGS FOR PHILADELPHIA ARE:

YEAR    JUNE AVG   JULY AVG   AUGUST AVG   SUMMER AVG   SUMMER PCPN

1969      73.4        75.1      75.2         74.6        18.30
1977      68.6        77.8      76.2         74.2        15.50
1991      75.7        79.0      79.0         77.9        12.01
AVG       72.6        77.3      76.8         75.6        15.27

1981-
2010      73.3        78.1      76.6         76.0        11.28
NORMAL

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR OUR FORECAST AREA IS FOR EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/KLEIN
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...GIGI/HEAVENER
AVIATION...GIGI/HEAVENER
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLEIN
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 261658
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1258 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST WEDNESDAY AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT TRIES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND STALL IN OUR VICINITY ON
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOOKING AT THE 12Z UA ANALYSIS, NOT MUCH TO GET ATMOSPHERICALLY
EXCITED ABOUT TODAY. INFLUENCE OF NEARBY RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO HAVE A PROTECTIVE DOME OVER MOST OF OUR CWA. 925MB MOISTURE
IS LACKING NEARBY UNTIL ONE GETS TO ROANOKE. CORE OF WARMEST AIR
IS ACTUALLY OVER OUR CWA WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ADVECTING IN
FROM VA AND NC. SIMILAR SCENARIO MOISTURE AND THERMALLY AT 850
MB. AT 700MB SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IS COMING FROM THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS ALONG WITH MORE MID LEVEL MOISTURE, NOT GREAT FOR
DOWNDRAFTS. AT 500MB, AIR MASS IS 1 TO 2C WARMER UPWIND AND THE
JET AT 300MB AND 250MB IS DISPLACED TOO FAR TO THE NORTHWEST.
LATEST SREF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR REMAINS LESS THAN 30KTS FOR
TODAY WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES OF LESS THAN 1000J. MESOSCALE MODELS
DO SHOW SOME CONVECTION OCCURRING IN OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED
LOCATIONS WITH POSSIBLY CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE BLUE RIDGE
ADVECTING INTO OUR PART OF MD OR PA THIS EVENING. OVERALL THIS IS
ALL LEANING TO NO CHANGE IN THE GENERAL ONGOING FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

12Z SOUNDINGS CORROBORATE ONGOING FORECAST MAX TEMPS AND IF ONE
LIKES THE +10F 10 AM RULE, PHL`S MAX TEMP TODAY WILL BE 87.

FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT DAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY TODAY OWING TO THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND
THE HIGH, IT WON`T BE ON PAR WITH A QUINTESSENTIAL MUGGY SUMMER DAY
IN THE MID ATLANTIC. OFFICIAL TEMP FORECAST FALLS ON THE WARMER
ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE AFTER TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE RECENT COOL BIAS
EXHIBITED BY THE MODELS. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY TO BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S WHICH IS GENERALLY ON PAR WITH YESTERDAY, IF NOT A DEGREE
OR TWO WARMER. DID NOT QUITE GO HIGH ENOUGH TO FORECAST THE FIRST 90
DEGREE DAY OF THE SEASON FOR PHILADELPHIA, BUT THE POSSIBILITY
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT JUST EAST OF THE EAST
COAST TODAY. THE LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE
WILL WEAKEN OVERHEAD A BIT, WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME POP UP SHOWERS
AND STORMS FORMING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE PA AND NW NJ. THE
WINDOW FOR CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WHEN
DIURNAL INSTABILITY PEAKS AND A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MOVES AROUND THE RIDGE AND
INTO EASTERN PA. MLCAPE PROFILES BELOW 1000 J/KG AND DEEP-LAYER BULK
SHEAR BELOW 25 KT ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSE/ORGANIZED STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE TONIGHT WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH. HOURLY POPS FOR TONIGHT EXHIBIT A SEMI-
DIURNAL TREND; DECREASING AFTER SUNSET DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER, ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY LAST INTO PART OF THE
NIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA.

AT THE VERY LEAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND KEEP TEMPS
WARMER THAN IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. FORECAST LOWS ARE GENERALLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL, BUT THERE MAY
BE PATCHY FOG THAT DEVELOPS TOWARD DAWN AT INLAND LOCATIONS THAT
RECEIVE ANY RAINFALL TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS EAST COAST RIDGING AS THE DOMINANT FORCE
THROUGH MOST OF THE LONGTERM PERIOD, WITH A RIPPLE OR TWO. BY THE
WEEKEND THE RIDGING BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN, MOVES OFF TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST, WHILE GREAT LAKES TROUGHING STARTS TO PUSH IN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

OVERALL THE LONGTERM REMAINS IN TACT FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT WITH
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON TIME
PERIOD...BETTER WEST THAN EAST WITH LEE TROUGHING POSSIBLE AND
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS.

WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. EXPECTING A THERMAL/LEE SIDE TROUGH TO DEVELOP TO OUR
IMMEDIATE WEST DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS AND SLOWLY MOVE IT TO
THE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. BETTER HEATING ALONG THE RIDGE
TOPS SHOULD BE THE PRIME FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHERE HIGHER SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES SETUP AND
SOMEWHAT BETTER 0-4KM SHEAR VALUES...AROUND 35 KNOTS. ONE ISSUE IS
STRICTLY TIED TO THE TIMING OF THE TROUGHS PASSAGE AS THE SHEAR
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NONE-THE-LESS
POP-UP/AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH BETTER ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND NORTH. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
STRONG, HIGH PWATS WILL ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
TEMPERATURES STILL RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH COULD END UP A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER IN
PLACE.

NOT EXPECTING TO HAVE ISSUES WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AS WE SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MIX OUT THE DEWPOINTS A BIT, THOUGH MUCH LESS THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS, AND KEEP VALUES SLIGHTLY STICKIER THAN PREDICTED AFTERNOON
MAXES.

THURSDAY - FRIDAY...COLD FRONT LOOKS TO STALL AND EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY. THE FORCING WITH THE FRONT
DECREASES WITH TIME BECOMING NIL BY FRIDAY. AGAIN, WITH A WARM
AIRMASS IN PLACE, THOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS, WE WILL
HAVE PLENTY OF DEWPOINT POOLING OCCURRING TO KEEP THE CHANCE POPS
BOTH DAYS...DIFFUSE FRONT WILL ACT AS A MOISTURE CONDUIT WITH
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN BEING THE BIGGER ISSUE COMPARED TO SEVERE
STORMS.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...WE WILL KEY ON SUNDAY VS SATURDAY AS THE
CONVECTIVELY MORE ACTIVE DAY GIVEN THE BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS AND
OVERALL TENDENCY FOR A SLOWER TIMING. POPS HIT A RELATIVE LOW ON
SATURDAY BEFORE RAMPING UP AGAIN ON SUNDAY. ALSO GIVEN THE SLOWER
FRONTAL TIMING, MAX TEMPS ARE MUCH CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE AND EC MOS
GUIDANCE THAN GFS MOS.

MONDAY...INITIAL LOOK AT MONDAY HAS THE FRONT STALLED JUST SOUTH OF
OUR CWA, THIS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY COOLER WITH STILL SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND. EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO KEEP
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE REGION WHICH MAY PRODUCE A MUCH NEEDED
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WITH SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS...JET INTERACTION AND PASSING SHORTWAVES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

18Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR TOWARD WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...VFR WITH MID LEVEL
DECK CIG LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD MOST TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH PEAK
GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS. NO DEFINABLE SEA BREEZE FRONT. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF
TERMINALS, LOWEST CONFIDENCE EARLY THIS EVE IN KRDG, HIGHER
CONFIDENCE KPHL TO COAST.

EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT...VFR. MID LEVEL DECK CIG FROM KPHL METRO
AREA AIRPORTS WEST AND NORTH. SOUTH WINDS DECREASING TO 5 TO 10
KNOTS.

EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE ABOUT A MVFR CIG
FORMING ALONG WITH MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT MORE RURAL AIRPORTS
AND TERMINALS. FOG WOULD BECOME MORE LIKELY IF MID DECK CIG DOES
NOT MATERIALIZE. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS.

WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...CIGS AND VSBYS BECOMING
VFR. CU DECK HEIGHT IS WEIGHED TOWARD START OF FCST PERIOD, IT
SHOULD BECOME HIGHER AS MORNING AND AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TSTMS WILL START FORMING WEST OF THE AREA,
TIMING FOR KPHL CLOSE TO 00Z SO NOT INCLUDED IN PRESENT TAF.


OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS...BETTER CHANCES
ACROSS RDG/ABE.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS FOLLOWED BY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING WAS CANCELLED AS WINDS ARE BELOW 20 KT AND SEAS 4 FT OR
LESS.

DEBATED ON WHETHER OR NOT TO ISSUE A SCA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FOR A PERIOD LATE IN THE DAY TODAY
AND WAVES WILL RESPOND ACCORDINGLY. OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY MARINE
HEADLINE SINCE THE WIND FIELD WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER THIS AFTERNOON
THAN YESTERDAY, SO NEAR-SHORE GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE BELOW 25 KT.
WINDS WILL BE STRONGER A FEW MILES OFFSHORE BUT MIXING WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER DUE TO THE COOLER WATERS. SEAS TONIGHT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE AROUND 4 FT IN THE COASTAL ATLANTIC.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
INPLACE. GUSTS MAY REACH 25 KNOTS WITH SEAS REACHING 5 FEET ON
THE OCEAN WATERS. STILL DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A SCA
ON THIS SHIFT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD BE BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS A WEAKER PRESSURE PATTERN SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOP 10 WARMEST MAY WILL OCCUR IN LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

THE FIRST 25 DAYS OF MAY IN OUR FORECAST AREA WERE AVERAGING
ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

RUNNING THE NUMBERS FROM THE FCST THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH WE
FIND THE FOLLOWING.

FOR PHILADELPHIA...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1874.
PROJECTING A MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 69 TO 70 RISING FROM
THE CURRENT VALUE OF 67.8, AT LEAST 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
HEADING FOR MOST LIKELY THE THIRD WARMEST MAY ON RECORD. WARMEST
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN MAY ON RECORD WAS 70.8 IN 1991. THEN 69.2
2004 AND 68.2 IN 2012.

FOR ALLENTOWN...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1922. THE MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IS CURRENTLY 63.9 DEGREES. IT IS LIKELY TO
INCREASE BY A DEGREE OR TWO LATER THIS WEEK, LEADING TO A TOP 10
WARMEST MAY THIS YEAR AT ALLENTOWN. THE WARMEST AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE IN MAY WAS 67.2 BACK IN 1991.

FOR WILMINGTON.... THE MONTH OF MAY IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE
TOP 5- 10 WARMEST. THE CURRENT MONTHLY TEMPERATURE IS 65.8 DEGREES
AND SHOULD RISE A DEGREE OR TWO BY MONTHS END. THE WARMEST MAY WAS
IN 1896 WHERE THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 70.1 DEGREES. IN 1991
THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 69.1 DEGREES.

FOR ATLANTIC CITY... THE MONTH IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE TOP
THREE WARMEST MAYS. CURRENTLY, THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE
MONTH IS 64.5 DEGREES AND IS LIKELY TO RISE A DEGREE TOR TWO BY
MONTHS END. THE WARMEST MAY WAS BACK IN 2004 WHERE THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE REACHED 66.9 DEGREES. IN 1991 THE MONTHLY AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE WAS 66 DEGREES. BOTH 2011 AND 2012 SAW A MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 65 DEGREES.

NORMAL FIRST DATE OF 90 OR HIGHER.

PHILADELPHIA MAY 29 ALLENTOWN MAY 30 WILMINGTON JUNE 4 ATLANTIC
CITY JUNE 11.

*************************************************************

HERE IS OUR ANNUAL LOOK AS TO HOW HOT, HOT, HOT THE SUMMER WILL
BE BASED ON PAST PERFORMANCES.

A FULL FLEDGED EL NINO IS UNDERWAY IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. ALL
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS KEEP IT GOING, THE DIFFERENCES
THAT EXIST ARE TO ITS STRENGTH THROUGH THIS UPCOMING SUMMER. THE
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS ARE AVERAGING A MODERATE EL NINO
FOR THE COMBINED SUMMER MONTHS. SOME MODELS, INCLUDING THE CFS2
AND ECMWF ARE PREDICTING A STRONG EL NINO. IN THE CPC MONITORING
EL NINO ERA STARTING SINCE 1950, THE HIGHEST (WARMEST) SUMMER
ANOMALY RECORDED WAS +1.5C (NEAR OR AT THE THRESHOLD FOR STRONG EL
NINOS) DURING THE SUMMER OF 1997.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL REALLY SEAL THE DEAL THAT THIS MAY WILL
BE UNSEASONABLY WARM IN PHILADELPHIA. IT "MAY" EVEN BE A TOP THREE
WARMEST. THIS FOLLOWS ON THE HEELS OF AN UNSEASONABLY WARM APRIL.
SINCE 1872, THE COMBINATION OF BOTH WARM (TOP THIRD OF ALL YEARS)
APRILS AND MAYS HAS ONLY OCCURRED TWENTY-THREE TIMES. BUT IT HAS
OCCURRED ELEVEN TIMES SINCE 1990 AND SIX OF THE LAST SEVEN
SPRINGS.

SO WE SCOURED THE CLIMATE RECORDS TO FIND BUDDING OR IN PROGRESS
EL NINOS THAT COINCIDED WITH BOTH WARM APRILS AND MAYS LOCALLY IN
THE CPC MONITORING ERA. WE FOUND THREE PAST SUMMERS THAT MET THE
CRITERIA. THE ONE SIGN IS THAT ALL THREE ANALOG SUMMERS WERE
WETTER THAN NORMAL, HOPEFULLY KEEPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS FROM
INTENSIFYING FURTHER.

THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE PREDICTIONS FOR THIS
UPCOMING SUMMER HAS WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER EXPECTED
IN OUR AREA. THE INTERNATIONAL MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE
SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC PREDICTING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION.

THE ANALOGS FOR PHILADELPHIA ARE:

YEAR    JUNE AVG   JULY AVG   AUGUST AVG   SUMMER AVG   SUMMER PCPN

1969      73.4        75.1      75.2         74.6        18.30
1977      68.6        77.8      76.2         74.2        15.50
1991      75.7        79.0      79.0         77.9        12.01
AVG       72.6        77.3      76.8         75.6        15.27

1981-
2010      73.3        78.1      76.6         76.0        11.28
NORMAL

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR OUR FORECAST AREA IS FOR EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/KLEIN
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...GIGI/HEAVENER
AVIATION...GIGI/HEAVENER
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLEIN
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 261658
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1258 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST WEDNESDAY AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT TRIES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND STALL IN OUR VICINITY ON
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOOKING AT THE 12Z UA ANALYSIS, NOT MUCH TO GET ATMOSPHERICALLY
EXCITED ABOUT TODAY. INFLUENCE OF NEARBY RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO HAVE A PROTECTIVE DOME OVER MOST OF OUR CWA. 925MB MOISTURE
IS LACKING NEARBY UNTIL ONE GETS TO ROANOKE. CORE OF WARMEST AIR
IS ACTUALLY OVER OUR CWA WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ADVECTING IN
FROM VA AND NC. SIMILAR SCENARIO MOISTURE AND THERMALLY AT 850
MB. AT 700MB SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IS COMING FROM THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS ALONG WITH MORE MID LEVEL MOISTURE, NOT GREAT FOR
DOWNDRAFTS. AT 500MB, AIR MASS IS 1 TO 2C WARMER UPWIND AND THE
JET AT 300MB AND 250MB IS DISPLACED TOO FAR TO THE NORTHWEST.
LATEST SREF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR REMAINS LESS THAN 30KTS FOR
TODAY WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES OF LESS THAN 1000J. MESOSCALE MODELS
DO SHOW SOME CONVECTION OCCURRING IN OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED
LOCATIONS WITH POSSIBLY CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE BLUE RIDGE
ADVECTING INTO OUR PART OF MD OR PA THIS EVENING. OVERALL THIS IS
ALL LEANING TO NO CHANGE IN THE GENERAL ONGOING FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

12Z SOUNDINGS CORROBORATE ONGOING FORECAST MAX TEMPS AND IF ONE
LIKES THE +10F 10 AM RULE, PHL`S MAX TEMP TODAY WILL BE 87.

FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT DAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY TODAY OWING TO THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND
THE HIGH, IT WON`T BE ON PAR WITH A QUINTESSENTIAL MUGGY SUMMER DAY
IN THE MID ATLANTIC. OFFICIAL TEMP FORECAST FALLS ON THE WARMER
ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE AFTER TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE RECENT COOL BIAS
EXHIBITED BY THE MODELS. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY TO BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S WHICH IS GENERALLY ON PAR WITH YESTERDAY, IF NOT A DEGREE
OR TWO WARMER. DID NOT QUITE GO HIGH ENOUGH TO FORECAST THE FIRST 90
DEGREE DAY OF THE SEASON FOR PHILADELPHIA, BUT THE POSSIBILITY
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT JUST EAST OF THE EAST
COAST TODAY. THE LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE
WILL WEAKEN OVERHEAD A BIT, WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME POP UP SHOWERS
AND STORMS FORMING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE PA AND NW NJ. THE
WINDOW FOR CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WHEN
DIURNAL INSTABILITY PEAKS AND A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MOVES AROUND THE RIDGE AND
INTO EASTERN PA. MLCAPE PROFILES BELOW 1000 J/KG AND DEEP-LAYER BULK
SHEAR BELOW 25 KT ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSE/ORGANIZED STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE TONIGHT WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH. HOURLY POPS FOR TONIGHT EXHIBIT A SEMI-
DIURNAL TREND; DECREASING AFTER SUNSET DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER, ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY LAST INTO PART OF THE
NIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA.

AT THE VERY LEAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND KEEP TEMPS
WARMER THAN IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. FORECAST LOWS ARE GENERALLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL, BUT THERE MAY
BE PATCHY FOG THAT DEVELOPS TOWARD DAWN AT INLAND LOCATIONS THAT
RECEIVE ANY RAINFALL TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS EAST COAST RIDGING AS THE DOMINANT FORCE
THROUGH MOST OF THE LONGTERM PERIOD, WITH A RIPPLE OR TWO. BY THE
WEEKEND THE RIDGING BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN, MOVES OFF TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST, WHILE GREAT LAKES TROUGHING STARTS TO PUSH IN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

OVERALL THE LONGTERM REMAINS IN TACT FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT WITH
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON TIME
PERIOD...BETTER WEST THAN EAST WITH LEE TROUGHING POSSIBLE AND
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS.

WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. EXPECTING A THERMAL/LEE SIDE TROUGH TO DEVELOP TO OUR
IMMEDIATE WEST DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS AND SLOWLY MOVE IT TO
THE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. BETTER HEATING ALONG THE RIDGE
TOPS SHOULD BE THE PRIME FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHERE HIGHER SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES SETUP AND
SOMEWHAT BETTER 0-4KM SHEAR VALUES...AROUND 35 KNOTS. ONE ISSUE IS
STRICTLY TIED TO THE TIMING OF THE TROUGHS PASSAGE AS THE SHEAR
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NONE-THE-LESS
POP-UP/AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH BETTER ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND NORTH. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
STRONG, HIGH PWATS WILL ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
TEMPERATURES STILL RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH COULD END UP A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER IN
PLACE.

NOT EXPECTING TO HAVE ISSUES WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AS WE SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MIX OUT THE DEWPOINTS A BIT, THOUGH MUCH LESS THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS, AND KEEP VALUES SLIGHTLY STICKIER THAN PREDICTED AFTERNOON
MAXES.

THURSDAY - FRIDAY...COLD FRONT LOOKS TO STALL AND EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY. THE FORCING WITH THE FRONT
DECREASES WITH TIME BECOMING NIL BY FRIDAY. AGAIN, WITH A WARM
AIRMASS IN PLACE, THOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS, WE WILL
HAVE PLENTY OF DEWPOINT POOLING OCCURRING TO KEEP THE CHANCE POPS
BOTH DAYS...DIFFUSE FRONT WILL ACT AS A MOISTURE CONDUIT WITH
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN BEING THE BIGGER ISSUE COMPARED TO SEVERE
STORMS.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...WE WILL KEY ON SUNDAY VS SATURDAY AS THE
CONVECTIVELY MORE ACTIVE DAY GIVEN THE BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS AND
OVERALL TENDENCY FOR A SLOWER TIMING. POPS HIT A RELATIVE LOW ON
SATURDAY BEFORE RAMPING UP AGAIN ON SUNDAY. ALSO GIVEN THE SLOWER
FRONTAL TIMING, MAX TEMPS ARE MUCH CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE AND EC MOS
GUIDANCE THAN GFS MOS.

MONDAY...INITIAL LOOK AT MONDAY HAS THE FRONT STALLED JUST SOUTH OF
OUR CWA, THIS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY COOLER WITH STILL SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND. EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO KEEP
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE REGION WHICH MAY PRODUCE A MUCH NEEDED
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WITH SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS...JET INTERACTION AND PASSING SHORTWAVES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

18Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR TOWARD WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...VFR WITH MID LEVEL
DECK CIG LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD MOST TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH PEAK
GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS. NO DEFINABLE SEA BREEZE FRONT. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF
TERMINALS, LOWEST CONFIDENCE EARLY THIS EVE IN KRDG, HIGHER
CONFIDENCE KPHL TO COAST.

EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT...VFR. MID LEVEL DECK CIG FROM KPHL METRO
AREA AIRPORTS WEST AND NORTH. SOUTH WINDS DECREASING TO 5 TO 10
KNOTS.

EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE ABOUT A MVFR CIG
FORMING ALONG WITH MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT MORE RURAL AIRPORTS
AND TERMINALS. FOG WOULD BECOME MORE LIKELY IF MID DECK CIG DOES
NOT MATERIALIZE. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS.

WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...CIGS AND VSBYS BECOMING
VFR. CU DECK HEIGHT IS WEIGHED TOWARD START OF FCST PERIOD, IT
SHOULD BECOME HIGHER AS MORNING AND AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TSTMS WILL START FORMING WEST OF THE AREA,
TIMING FOR KPHL CLOSE TO 00Z SO NOT INCLUDED IN PRESENT TAF.


OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS...BETTER CHANCES
ACROSS RDG/ABE.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS FOLLOWED BY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING WAS CANCELLED AS WINDS ARE BELOW 20 KT AND SEAS 4 FT OR
LESS.

DEBATED ON WHETHER OR NOT TO ISSUE A SCA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FOR A PERIOD LATE IN THE DAY TODAY
AND WAVES WILL RESPOND ACCORDINGLY. OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY MARINE
HEADLINE SINCE THE WIND FIELD WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER THIS AFTERNOON
THAN YESTERDAY, SO NEAR-SHORE GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE BELOW 25 KT.
WINDS WILL BE STRONGER A FEW MILES OFFSHORE BUT MIXING WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER DUE TO THE COOLER WATERS. SEAS TONIGHT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE AROUND 4 FT IN THE COASTAL ATLANTIC.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
INPLACE. GUSTS MAY REACH 25 KNOTS WITH SEAS REACHING 5 FEET ON
THE OCEAN WATERS. STILL DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A SCA
ON THIS SHIFT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD BE BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS A WEAKER PRESSURE PATTERN SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOP 10 WARMEST MAY WILL OCCUR IN LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

THE FIRST 25 DAYS OF MAY IN OUR FORECAST AREA WERE AVERAGING
ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

RUNNING THE NUMBERS FROM THE FCST THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH WE
FIND THE FOLLOWING.

FOR PHILADELPHIA...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1874.
PROJECTING A MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 69 TO 70 RISING FROM
THE CURRENT VALUE OF 67.8, AT LEAST 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
HEADING FOR MOST LIKELY THE THIRD WARMEST MAY ON RECORD. WARMEST
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN MAY ON RECORD WAS 70.8 IN 1991. THEN 69.2
2004 AND 68.2 IN 2012.

FOR ALLENTOWN...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1922. THE MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IS CURRENTLY 63.9 DEGREES. IT IS LIKELY TO
INCREASE BY A DEGREE OR TWO LATER THIS WEEK, LEADING TO A TOP 10
WARMEST MAY THIS YEAR AT ALLENTOWN. THE WARMEST AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE IN MAY WAS 67.2 BACK IN 1991.

FOR WILMINGTON.... THE MONTH OF MAY IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE
TOP 5- 10 WARMEST. THE CURRENT MONTHLY TEMPERATURE IS 65.8 DEGREES
AND SHOULD RISE A DEGREE OR TWO BY MONTHS END. THE WARMEST MAY WAS
IN 1896 WHERE THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 70.1 DEGREES. IN 1991
THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 69.1 DEGREES.

FOR ATLANTIC CITY... THE MONTH IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE TOP
THREE WARMEST MAYS. CURRENTLY, THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE
MONTH IS 64.5 DEGREES AND IS LIKELY TO RISE A DEGREE TOR TWO BY
MONTHS END. THE WARMEST MAY WAS BACK IN 2004 WHERE THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE REACHED 66.9 DEGREES. IN 1991 THE MONTHLY AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE WAS 66 DEGREES. BOTH 2011 AND 2012 SAW A MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 65 DEGREES.

NORMAL FIRST DATE OF 90 OR HIGHER.

PHILADELPHIA MAY 29 ALLENTOWN MAY 30 WILMINGTON JUNE 4 ATLANTIC
CITY JUNE 11.

*************************************************************

HERE IS OUR ANNUAL LOOK AS TO HOW HOT, HOT, HOT THE SUMMER WILL
BE BASED ON PAST PERFORMANCES.

A FULL FLEDGED EL NINO IS UNDERWAY IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. ALL
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS KEEP IT GOING, THE DIFFERENCES
THAT EXIST ARE TO ITS STRENGTH THROUGH THIS UPCOMING SUMMER. THE
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS ARE AVERAGING A MODERATE EL NINO
FOR THE COMBINED SUMMER MONTHS. SOME MODELS, INCLUDING THE CFS2
AND ECMWF ARE PREDICTING A STRONG EL NINO. IN THE CPC MONITORING
EL NINO ERA STARTING SINCE 1950, THE HIGHEST (WARMEST) SUMMER
ANOMALY RECORDED WAS +1.5C (NEAR OR AT THE THRESHOLD FOR STRONG EL
NINOS) DURING THE SUMMER OF 1997.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL REALLY SEAL THE DEAL THAT THIS MAY WILL
BE UNSEASONABLY WARM IN PHILADELPHIA. IT "MAY" EVEN BE A TOP THREE
WARMEST. THIS FOLLOWS ON THE HEELS OF AN UNSEASONABLY WARM APRIL.
SINCE 1872, THE COMBINATION OF BOTH WARM (TOP THIRD OF ALL YEARS)
APRILS AND MAYS HAS ONLY OCCURRED TWENTY-THREE TIMES. BUT IT HAS
OCCURRED ELEVEN TIMES SINCE 1990 AND SIX OF THE LAST SEVEN
SPRINGS.

SO WE SCOURED THE CLIMATE RECORDS TO FIND BUDDING OR IN PROGRESS
EL NINOS THAT COINCIDED WITH BOTH WARM APRILS AND MAYS LOCALLY IN
THE CPC MONITORING ERA. WE FOUND THREE PAST SUMMERS THAT MET THE
CRITERIA. THE ONE SIGN IS THAT ALL THREE ANALOG SUMMERS WERE
WETTER THAN NORMAL, HOPEFULLY KEEPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS FROM
INTENSIFYING FURTHER.

THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE PREDICTIONS FOR THIS
UPCOMING SUMMER HAS WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER EXPECTED
IN OUR AREA. THE INTERNATIONAL MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE
SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC PREDICTING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION.

THE ANALOGS FOR PHILADELPHIA ARE:

YEAR    JUNE AVG   JULY AVG   AUGUST AVG   SUMMER AVG   SUMMER PCPN

1969      73.4        75.1      75.2         74.6        18.30
1977      68.6        77.8      76.2         74.2        15.50
1991      75.7        79.0      79.0         77.9        12.01
AVG       72.6        77.3      76.8         75.6        15.27

1981-
2010      73.3        78.1      76.6         76.0        11.28
NORMAL

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR OUR FORECAST AREA IS FOR EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/KLEIN
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...GIGI/HEAVENER
AVIATION...GIGI/HEAVENER
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLEIN
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 261658
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1258 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST WEDNESDAY AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT TRIES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND STALL IN OUR VICINITY ON
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOOKING AT THE 12Z UA ANALYSIS, NOT MUCH TO GET ATMOSPHERICALLY
EXCITED ABOUT TODAY. INFLUENCE OF NEARBY RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO HAVE A PROTECTIVE DOME OVER MOST OF OUR CWA. 925MB MOISTURE
IS LACKING NEARBY UNTIL ONE GETS TO ROANOKE. CORE OF WARMEST AIR
IS ACTUALLY OVER OUR CWA WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ADVECTING IN
FROM VA AND NC. SIMILAR SCENARIO MOISTURE AND THERMALLY AT 850
MB. AT 700MB SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IS COMING FROM THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS ALONG WITH MORE MID LEVEL MOISTURE, NOT GREAT FOR
DOWNDRAFTS. AT 500MB, AIR MASS IS 1 TO 2C WARMER UPWIND AND THE
JET AT 300MB AND 250MB IS DISPLACED TOO FAR TO THE NORTHWEST.
LATEST SREF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR REMAINS LESS THAN 30KTS FOR
TODAY WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES OF LESS THAN 1000J. MESOSCALE MODELS
DO SHOW SOME CONVECTION OCCURRING IN OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED
LOCATIONS WITH POSSIBLY CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE BLUE RIDGE
ADVECTING INTO OUR PART OF MD OR PA THIS EVENING. OVERALL THIS IS
ALL LEANING TO NO CHANGE IN THE GENERAL ONGOING FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

12Z SOUNDINGS CORROBORATE ONGOING FORECAST MAX TEMPS AND IF ONE
LIKES THE +10F 10 AM RULE, PHL`S MAX TEMP TODAY WILL BE 87.

FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT DAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY TODAY OWING TO THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND
THE HIGH, IT WON`T BE ON PAR WITH A QUINTESSENTIAL MUGGY SUMMER DAY
IN THE MID ATLANTIC. OFFICIAL TEMP FORECAST FALLS ON THE WARMER
ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE AFTER TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE RECENT COOL BIAS
EXHIBITED BY THE MODELS. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY TO BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S WHICH IS GENERALLY ON PAR WITH YESTERDAY, IF NOT A DEGREE
OR TWO WARMER. DID NOT QUITE GO HIGH ENOUGH TO FORECAST THE FIRST 90
DEGREE DAY OF THE SEASON FOR PHILADELPHIA, BUT THE POSSIBILITY
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT JUST EAST OF THE EAST
COAST TODAY. THE LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE
WILL WEAKEN OVERHEAD A BIT, WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME POP UP SHOWERS
AND STORMS FORMING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE PA AND NW NJ. THE
WINDOW FOR CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WHEN
DIURNAL INSTABILITY PEAKS AND A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MOVES AROUND THE RIDGE AND
INTO EASTERN PA. MLCAPE PROFILES BELOW 1000 J/KG AND DEEP-LAYER BULK
SHEAR BELOW 25 KT ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSE/ORGANIZED STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE TONIGHT WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH. HOURLY POPS FOR TONIGHT EXHIBIT A SEMI-
DIURNAL TREND; DECREASING AFTER SUNSET DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER, ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY LAST INTO PART OF THE
NIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA.

AT THE VERY LEAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND KEEP TEMPS
WARMER THAN IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. FORECAST LOWS ARE GENERALLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL, BUT THERE MAY
BE PATCHY FOG THAT DEVELOPS TOWARD DAWN AT INLAND LOCATIONS THAT
RECEIVE ANY RAINFALL TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS EAST COAST RIDGING AS THE DOMINANT FORCE
THROUGH MOST OF THE LONGTERM PERIOD, WITH A RIPPLE OR TWO. BY THE
WEEKEND THE RIDGING BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN, MOVES OFF TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST, WHILE GREAT LAKES TROUGHING STARTS TO PUSH IN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

OVERALL THE LONGTERM REMAINS IN TACT FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT WITH
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON TIME
PERIOD...BETTER WEST THAN EAST WITH LEE TROUGHING POSSIBLE AND
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS.

WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. EXPECTING A THERMAL/LEE SIDE TROUGH TO DEVELOP TO OUR
IMMEDIATE WEST DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS AND SLOWLY MOVE IT TO
THE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. BETTER HEATING ALONG THE RIDGE
TOPS SHOULD BE THE PRIME FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHERE HIGHER SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES SETUP AND
SOMEWHAT BETTER 0-4KM SHEAR VALUES...AROUND 35 KNOTS. ONE ISSUE IS
STRICTLY TIED TO THE TIMING OF THE TROUGHS PASSAGE AS THE SHEAR
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NONE-THE-LESS
POP-UP/AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH BETTER ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND NORTH. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
STRONG, HIGH PWATS WILL ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
TEMPERATURES STILL RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH COULD END UP A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER IN
PLACE.

NOT EXPECTING TO HAVE ISSUES WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AS WE SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MIX OUT THE DEWPOINTS A BIT, THOUGH MUCH LESS THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS, AND KEEP VALUES SLIGHTLY STICKIER THAN PREDICTED AFTERNOON
MAXES.

THURSDAY - FRIDAY...COLD FRONT LOOKS TO STALL AND EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY. THE FORCING WITH THE FRONT
DECREASES WITH TIME BECOMING NIL BY FRIDAY. AGAIN, WITH A WARM
AIRMASS IN PLACE, THOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS, WE WILL
HAVE PLENTY OF DEWPOINT POOLING OCCURRING TO KEEP THE CHANCE POPS
BOTH DAYS...DIFFUSE FRONT WILL ACT AS A MOISTURE CONDUIT WITH
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN BEING THE BIGGER ISSUE COMPARED TO SEVERE
STORMS.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...WE WILL KEY ON SUNDAY VS SATURDAY AS THE
CONVECTIVELY MORE ACTIVE DAY GIVEN THE BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS AND
OVERALL TENDENCY FOR A SLOWER TIMING. POPS HIT A RELATIVE LOW ON
SATURDAY BEFORE RAMPING UP AGAIN ON SUNDAY. ALSO GIVEN THE SLOWER
FRONTAL TIMING, MAX TEMPS ARE MUCH CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE AND EC MOS
GUIDANCE THAN GFS MOS.

MONDAY...INITIAL LOOK AT MONDAY HAS THE FRONT STALLED JUST SOUTH OF
OUR CWA, THIS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY COOLER WITH STILL SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND. EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO KEEP
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE REGION WHICH MAY PRODUCE A MUCH NEEDED
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WITH SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS...JET INTERACTION AND PASSING SHORTWAVES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

18Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR TOWARD WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...VFR WITH MID LEVEL
DECK CIG LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD MOST TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH PEAK
GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS. NO DEFINABLE SEA BREEZE FRONT. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF
TERMINALS, LOWEST CONFIDENCE EARLY THIS EVE IN KRDG, HIGHER
CONFIDENCE KPHL TO COAST.

EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT...VFR. MID LEVEL DECK CIG FROM KPHL METRO
AREA AIRPORTS WEST AND NORTH. SOUTH WINDS DECREASING TO 5 TO 10
KNOTS.

EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE ABOUT A MVFR CIG
FORMING ALONG WITH MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT MORE RURAL AIRPORTS
AND TERMINALS. FOG WOULD BECOME MORE LIKELY IF MID DECK CIG DOES
NOT MATERIALIZE. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS.

WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...CIGS AND VSBYS BECOMING
VFR. CU DECK HEIGHT IS WEIGHED TOWARD START OF FCST PERIOD, IT
SHOULD BECOME HIGHER AS MORNING AND AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TSTMS WILL START FORMING WEST OF THE AREA,
TIMING FOR KPHL CLOSE TO 00Z SO NOT INCLUDED IN PRESENT TAF.


OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS...BETTER CHANCES
ACROSS RDG/ABE.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS FOLLOWED BY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING WAS CANCELLED AS WINDS ARE BELOW 20 KT AND SEAS 4 FT OR
LESS.

DEBATED ON WHETHER OR NOT TO ISSUE A SCA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FOR A PERIOD LATE IN THE DAY TODAY
AND WAVES WILL RESPOND ACCORDINGLY. OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY MARINE
HEADLINE SINCE THE WIND FIELD WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER THIS AFTERNOON
THAN YESTERDAY, SO NEAR-SHORE GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE BELOW 25 KT.
WINDS WILL BE STRONGER A FEW MILES OFFSHORE BUT MIXING WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER DUE TO THE COOLER WATERS. SEAS TONIGHT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE AROUND 4 FT IN THE COASTAL ATLANTIC.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
INPLACE. GUSTS MAY REACH 25 KNOTS WITH SEAS REACHING 5 FEET ON
THE OCEAN WATERS. STILL DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A SCA
ON THIS SHIFT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD BE BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS A WEAKER PRESSURE PATTERN SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOP 10 WARMEST MAY WILL OCCUR IN LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

THE FIRST 25 DAYS OF MAY IN OUR FORECAST AREA WERE AVERAGING
ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

RUNNING THE NUMBERS FROM THE FCST THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH WE
FIND THE FOLLOWING.

FOR PHILADELPHIA...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1874.
PROJECTING A MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 69 TO 70 RISING FROM
THE CURRENT VALUE OF 67.8, AT LEAST 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
HEADING FOR MOST LIKELY THE THIRD WARMEST MAY ON RECORD. WARMEST
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN MAY ON RECORD WAS 70.8 IN 1991. THEN 69.2
2004 AND 68.2 IN 2012.

FOR ALLENTOWN...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1922. THE MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IS CURRENTLY 63.9 DEGREES. IT IS LIKELY TO
INCREASE BY A DEGREE OR TWO LATER THIS WEEK, LEADING TO A TOP 10
WARMEST MAY THIS YEAR AT ALLENTOWN. THE WARMEST AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE IN MAY WAS 67.2 BACK IN 1991.

FOR WILMINGTON.... THE MONTH OF MAY IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE
TOP 5- 10 WARMEST. THE CURRENT MONTHLY TEMPERATURE IS 65.8 DEGREES
AND SHOULD RISE A DEGREE OR TWO BY MONTHS END. THE WARMEST MAY WAS
IN 1896 WHERE THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 70.1 DEGREES. IN 1991
THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 69.1 DEGREES.

FOR ATLANTIC CITY... THE MONTH IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE TOP
THREE WARMEST MAYS. CURRENTLY, THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE
MONTH IS 64.5 DEGREES AND IS LIKELY TO RISE A DEGREE TOR TWO BY
MONTHS END. THE WARMEST MAY WAS BACK IN 2004 WHERE THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE REACHED 66.9 DEGREES. IN 1991 THE MONTHLY AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE WAS 66 DEGREES. BOTH 2011 AND 2012 SAW A MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 65 DEGREES.

NORMAL FIRST DATE OF 90 OR HIGHER.

PHILADELPHIA MAY 29 ALLENTOWN MAY 30 WILMINGTON JUNE 4 ATLANTIC
CITY JUNE 11.

*************************************************************

HERE IS OUR ANNUAL LOOK AS TO HOW HOT, HOT, HOT THE SUMMER WILL
BE BASED ON PAST PERFORMANCES.

A FULL FLEDGED EL NINO IS UNDERWAY IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. ALL
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS KEEP IT GOING, THE DIFFERENCES
THAT EXIST ARE TO ITS STRENGTH THROUGH THIS UPCOMING SUMMER. THE
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS ARE AVERAGING A MODERATE EL NINO
FOR THE COMBINED SUMMER MONTHS. SOME MODELS, INCLUDING THE CFS2
AND ECMWF ARE PREDICTING A STRONG EL NINO. IN THE CPC MONITORING
EL NINO ERA STARTING SINCE 1950, THE HIGHEST (WARMEST) SUMMER
ANOMALY RECORDED WAS +1.5C (NEAR OR AT THE THRESHOLD FOR STRONG EL
NINOS) DURING THE SUMMER OF 1997.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL REALLY SEAL THE DEAL THAT THIS MAY WILL
BE UNSEASONABLY WARM IN PHILADELPHIA. IT "MAY" EVEN BE A TOP THREE
WARMEST. THIS FOLLOWS ON THE HEELS OF AN UNSEASONABLY WARM APRIL.
SINCE 1872, THE COMBINATION OF BOTH WARM (TOP THIRD OF ALL YEARS)
APRILS AND MAYS HAS ONLY OCCURRED TWENTY-THREE TIMES. BUT IT HAS
OCCURRED ELEVEN TIMES SINCE 1990 AND SIX OF THE LAST SEVEN
SPRINGS.

SO WE SCOURED THE CLIMATE RECORDS TO FIND BUDDING OR IN PROGRESS
EL NINOS THAT COINCIDED WITH BOTH WARM APRILS AND MAYS LOCALLY IN
THE CPC MONITORING ERA. WE FOUND THREE PAST SUMMERS THAT MET THE
CRITERIA. THE ONE SIGN IS THAT ALL THREE ANALOG SUMMERS WERE
WETTER THAN NORMAL, HOPEFULLY KEEPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS FROM
INTENSIFYING FURTHER.

THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE PREDICTIONS FOR THIS
UPCOMING SUMMER HAS WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER EXPECTED
IN OUR AREA. THE INTERNATIONAL MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE
SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC PREDICTING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION.

THE ANALOGS FOR PHILADELPHIA ARE:

YEAR    JUNE AVG   JULY AVG   AUGUST AVG   SUMMER AVG   SUMMER PCPN

1969      73.4        75.1      75.2         74.6        18.30
1977      68.6        77.8      76.2         74.2        15.50
1991      75.7        79.0      79.0         77.9        12.01
AVG       72.6        77.3      76.8         75.6        15.27

1981-
2010      73.3        78.1      76.6         76.0        11.28
NORMAL

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR OUR FORECAST AREA IS FOR EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/KLEIN
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...GIGI/HEAVENER
AVIATION...GIGI/HEAVENER
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLEIN
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 261658
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1258 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST WEDNESDAY AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT TRIES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND STALL IN OUR VICINITY ON
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOOKING AT THE 12Z UA ANALYSIS, NOT MUCH TO GET ATMOSPHERICALLY
EXCITED ABOUT TODAY. INFLUENCE OF NEARBY RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO HAVE A PROTECTIVE DOME OVER MOST OF OUR CWA. 925MB MOISTURE
IS LACKING NEARBY UNTIL ONE GETS TO ROANOKE. CORE OF WARMEST AIR
IS ACTUALLY OVER OUR CWA WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ADVECTING IN
FROM VA AND NC. SIMILAR SCENARIO MOISTURE AND THERMALLY AT 850
MB. AT 700MB SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IS COMING FROM THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS ALONG WITH MORE MID LEVEL MOISTURE, NOT GREAT FOR
DOWNDRAFTS. AT 500MB, AIR MASS IS 1 TO 2C WARMER UPWIND AND THE
JET AT 300MB AND 250MB IS DISPLACED TOO FAR TO THE NORTHWEST.
LATEST SREF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR REMAINS LESS THAN 30KTS FOR
TODAY WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES OF LESS THAN 1000J. MESOSCALE MODELS
DO SHOW SOME CONVECTION OCCURRING IN OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED
LOCATIONS WITH POSSIBLY CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE BLUE RIDGE
ADVECTING INTO OUR PART OF MD OR PA THIS EVENING. OVERALL THIS IS
ALL LEANING TO NO CHANGE IN THE GENERAL ONGOING FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

12Z SOUNDINGS CORROBORATE ONGOING FORECAST MAX TEMPS AND IF ONE
LIKES THE +10F 10 AM RULE, PHL`S MAX TEMP TODAY WILL BE 87.

FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT DAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY TODAY OWING TO THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND
THE HIGH, IT WON`T BE ON PAR WITH A QUINTESSENTIAL MUGGY SUMMER DAY
IN THE MID ATLANTIC. OFFICIAL TEMP FORECAST FALLS ON THE WARMER
ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE AFTER TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE RECENT COOL BIAS
EXHIBITED BY THE MODELS. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY TO BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S WHICH IS GENERALLY ON PAR WITH YESTERDAY, IF NOT A DEGREE
OR TWO WARMER. DID NOT QUITE GO HIGH ENOUGH TO FORECAST THE FIRST 90
DEGREE DAY OF THE SEASON FOR PHILADELPHIA, BUT THE POSSIBILITY
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT JUST EAST OF THE EAST
COAST TODAY. THE LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE
WILL WEAKEN OVERHEAD A BIT, WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME POP UP SHOWERS
AND STORMS FORMING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE PA AND NW NJ. THE
WINDOW FOR CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WHEN
DIURNAL INSTABILITY PEAKS AND A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MOVES AROUND THE RIDGE AND
INTO EASTERN PA. MLCAPE PROFILES BELOW 1000 J/KG AND DEEP-LAYER BULK
SHEAR BELOW 25 KT ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSE/ORGANIZED STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE TONIGHT WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH. HOURLY POPS FOR TONIGHT EXHIBIT A SEMI-
DIURNAL TREND; DECREASING AFTER SUNSET DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER, ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY LAST INTO PART OF THE
NIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA.

AT THE VERY LEAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND KEEP TEMPS
WARMER THAN IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. FORECAST LOWS ARE GENERALLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL, BUT THERE MAY
BE PATCHY FOG THAT DEVELOPS TOWARD DAWN AT INLAND LOCATIONS THAT
RECEIVE ANY RAINFALL TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS EAST COAST RIDGING AS THE DOMINANT FORCE
THROUGH MOST OF THE LONGTERM PERIOD, WITH A RIPPLE OR TWO. BY THE
WEEKEND THE RIDGING BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN, MOVES OFF TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST, WHILE GREAT LAKES TROUGHING STARTS TO PUSH IN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

OVERALL THE LONGTERM REMAINS IN TACT FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT WITH
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON TIME
PERIOD...BETTER WEST THAN EAST WITH LEE TROUGHING POSSIBLE AND
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS.

WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. EXPECTING A THERMAL/LEE SIDE TROUGH TO DEVELOP TO OUR
IMMEDIATE WEST DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS AND SLOWLY MOVE IT TO
THE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. BETTER HEATING ALONG THE RIDGE
TOPS SHOULD BE THE PRIME FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHERE HIGHER SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES SETUP AND
SOMEWHAT BETTER 0-4KM SHEAR VALUES...AROUND 35 KNOTS. ONE ISSUE IS
STRICTLY TIED TO THE TIMING OF THE TROUGHS PASSAGE AS THE SHEAR
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NONE-THE-LESS
POP-UP/AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH BETTER ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND NORTH. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
STRONG, HIGH PWATS WILL ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
TEMPERATURES STILL RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH COULD END UP A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER IN
PLACE.

NOT EXPECTING TO HAVE ISSUES WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AS WE SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MIX OUT THE DEWPOINTS A BIT, THOUGH MUCH LESS THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS, AND KEEP VALUES SLIGHTLY STICKIER THAN PREDICTED AFTERNOON
MAXES.

THURSDAY - FRIDAY...COLD FRONT LOOKS TO STALL AND EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY. THE FORCING WITH THE FRONT
DECREASES WITH TIME BECOMING NIL BY FRIDAY. AGAIN, WITH A WARM
AIRMASS IN PLACE, THOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS, WE WILL
HAVE PLENTY OF DEWPOINT POOLING OCCURRING TO KEEP THE CHANCE POPS
BOTH DAYS...DIFFUSE FRONT WILL ACT AS A MOISTURE CONDUIT WITH
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN BEING THE BIGGER ISSUE COMPARED TO SEVERE
STORMS.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...WE WILL KEY ON SUNDAY VS SATURDAY AS THE
CONVECTIVELY MORE ACTIVE DAY GIVEN THE BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS AND
OVERALL TENDENCY FOR A SLOWER TIMING. POPS HIT A RELATIVE LOW ON
SATURDAY BEFORE RAMPING UP AGAIN ON SUNDAY. ALSO GIVEN THE SLOWER
FRONTAL TIMING, MAX TEMPS ARE MUCH CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE AND EC MOS
GUIDANCE THAN GFS MOS.

MONDAY...INITIAL LOOK AT MONDAY HAS THE FRONT STALLED JUST SOUTH OF
OUR CWA, THIS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY COOLER WITH STILL SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND. EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO KEEP
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE REGION WHICH MAY PRODUCE A MUCH NEEDED
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WITH SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS...JET INTERACTION AND PASSING SHORTWAVES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

18Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR TOWARD WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...VFR WITH MID LEVEL
DECK CIG LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD MOST TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH PEAK
GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS. NO DEFINABLE SEA BREEZE FRONT. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF
TERMINALS, LOWEST CONFIDENCE EARLY THIS EVE IN KRDG, HIGHER
CONFIDENCE KPHL TO COAST.

EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT...VFR. MID LEVEL DECK CIG FROM KPHL METRO
AREA AIRPORTS WEST AND NORTH. SOUTH WINDS DECREASING TO 5 TO 10
KNOTS.

EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE ABOUT A MVFR CIG
FORMING ALONG WITH MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT MORE RURAL AIRPORTS
AND TERMINALS. FOG WOULD BECOME MORE LIKELY IF MID DECK CIG DOES
NOT MATERIALIZE. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS.

WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...CIGS AND VSBYS BECOMING
VFR. CU DECK HEIGHT IS WEIGHED TOWARD START OF FCST PERIOD, IT
SHOULD BECOME HIGHER AS MORNING AND AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TSTMS WILL START FORMING WEST OF THE AREA,
TIMING FOR KPHL CLOSE TO 00Z SO NOT INCLUDED IN PRESENT TAF.


OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS...BETTER CHANCES
ACROSS RDG/ABE.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS FOLLOWED BY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING WAS CANCELLED AS WINDS ARE BELOW 20 KT AND SEAS 4 FT OR
LESS.

DEBATED ON WHETHER OR NOT TO ISSUE A SCA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FOR A PERIOD LATE IN THE DAY TODAY
AND WAVES WILL RESPOND ACCORDINGLY. OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY MARINE
HEADLINE SINCE THE WIND FIELD WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER THIS AFTERNOON
THAN YESTERDAY, SO NEAR-SHORE GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE BELOW 25 KT.
WINDS WILL BE STRONGER A FEW MILES OFFSHORE BUT MIXING WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER DUE TO THE COOLER WATERS. SEAS TONIGHT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE AROUND 4 FT IN THE COASTAL ATLANTIC.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
INPLACE. GUSTS MAY REACH 25 KNOTS WITH SEAS REACHING 5 FEET ON
THE OCEAN WATERS. STILL DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A SCA
ON THIS SHIFT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD BE BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS A WEAKER PRESSURE PATTERN SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOP 10 WARMEST MAY WILL OCCUR IN LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

THE FIRST 25 DAYS OF MAY IN OUR FORECAST AREA WERE AVERAGING
ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

RUNNING THE NUMBERS FROM THE FCST THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH WE
FIND THE FOLLOWING.

FOR PHILADELPHIA...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1874.
PROJECTING A MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 69 TO 70 RISING FROM
THE CURRENT VALUE OF 67.8, AT LEAST 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
HEADING FOR MOST LIKELY THE THIRD WARMEST MAY ON RECORD. WARMEST
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN MAY ON RECORD WAS 70.8 IN 1991. THEN 69.2
2004 AND 68.2 IN 2012.

FOR ALLENTOWN...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1922. THE MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IS CURRENTLY 63.9 DEGREES. IT IS LIKELY TO
INCREASE BY A DEGREE OR TWO LATER THIS WEEK, LEADING TO A TOP 10
WARMEST MAY THIS YEAR AT ALLENTOWN. THE WARMEST AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE IN MAY WAS 67.2 BACK IN 1991.

FOR WILMINGTON.... THE MONTH OF MAY IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE
TOP 5- 10 WARMEST. THE CURRENT MONTHLY TEMPERATURE IS 65.8 DEGREES
AND SHOULD RISE A DEGREE OR TWO BY MONTHS END. THE WARMEST MAY WAS
IN 1896 WHERE THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 70.1 DEGREES. IN 1991
THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 69.1 DEGREES.

FOR ATLANTIC CITY... THE MONTH IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE TOP
THREE WARMEST MAYS. CURRENTLY, THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE
MONTH IS 64.5 DEGREES AND IS LIKELY TO RISE A DEGREE TOR TWO BY
MONTHS END. THE WARMEST MAY WAS BACK IN 2004 WHERE THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE REACHED 66.9 DEGREES. IN 1991 THE MONTHLY AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE WAS 66 DEGREES. BOTH 2011 AND 2012 SAW A MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 65 DEGREES.

NORMAL FIRST DATE OF 90 OR HIGHER.

PHILADELPHIA MAY 29 ALLENTOWN MAY 30 WILMINGTON JUNE 4 ATLANTIC
CITY JUNE 11.

*************************************************************

HERE IS OUR ANNUAL LOOK AS TO HOW HOT, HOT, HOT THE SUMMER WILL
BE BASED ON PAST PERFORMANCES.

A FULL FLEDGED EL NINO IS UNDERWAY IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. ALL
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS KEEP IT GOING, THE DIFFERENCES
THAT EXIST ARE TO ITS STRENGTH THROUGH THIS UPCOMING SUMMER. THE
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS ARE AVERAGING A MODERATE EL NINO
FOR THE COMBINED SUMMER MONTHS. SOME MODELS, INCLUDING THE CFS2
AND ECMWF ARE PREDICTING A STRONG EL NINO. IN THE CPC MONITORING
EL NINO ERA STARTING SINCE 1950, THE HIGHEST (WARMEST) SUMMER
ANOMALY RECORDED WAS +1.5C (NEAR OR AT THE THRESHOLD FOR STRONG EL
NINOS) DURING THE SUMMER OF 1997.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL REALLY SEAL THE DEAL THAT THIS MAY WILL
BE UNSEASONABLY WARM IN PHILADELPHIA. IT "MAY" EVEN BE A TOP THREE
WARMEST. THIS FOLLOWS ON THE HEELS OF AN UNSEASONABLY WARM APRIL.
SINCE 1872, THE COMBINATION OF BOTH WARM (TOP THIRD OF ALL YEARS)
APRILS AND MAYS HAS ONLY OCCURRED TWENTY-THREE TIMES. BUT IT HAS
OCCURRED ELEVEN TIMES SINCE 1990 AND SIX OF THE LAST SEVEN
SPRINGS.

SO WE SCOURED THE CLIMATE RECORDS TO FIND BUDDING OR IN PROGRESS
EL NINOS THAT COINCIDED WITH BOTH WARM APRILS AND MAYS LOCALLY IN
THE CPC MONITORING ERA. WE FOUND THREE PAST SUMMERS THAT MET THE
CRITERIA. THE ONE SIGN IS THAT ALL THREE ANALOG SUMMERS WERE
WETTER THAN NORMAL, HOPEFULLY KEEPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS FROM
INTENSIFYING FURTHER.

THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE PREDICTIONS FOR THIS
UPCOMING SUMMER HAS WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER EXPECTED
IN OUR AREA. THE INTERNATIONAL MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE
SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC PREDICTING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION.

THE ANALOGS FOR PHILADELPHIA ARE:

YEAR    JUNE AVG   JULY AVG   AUGUST AVG   SUMMER AVG   SUMMER PCPN

1969      73.4        75.1      75.2         74.6        18.30
1977      68.6        77.8      76.2         74.2        15.50
1991      75.7        79.0      79.0         77.9        12.01
AVG       72.6        77.3      76.8         75.6        15.27

1981-
2010      73.3        78.1      76.6         76.0        11.28
NORMAL

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR OUR FORECAST AREA IS FOR EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/KLEIN
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...GIGI/HEAVENER
AVIATION...GIGI/HEAVENER
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLEIN
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 261658
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1258 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST WEDNESDAY AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT TRIES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND STALL IN OUR VICINITY ON
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOOKING AT THE 12Z UA ANALYSIS, NOT MUCH TO GET ATMOSPHERICALLY
EXCITED ABOUT TODAY. INFLUENCE OF NEARBY RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO HAVE A PROTECTIVE DOME OVER MOST OF OUR CWA. 925MB MOISTURE
IS LACKING NEARBY UNTIL ONE GETS TO ROANOKE. CORE OF WARMEST AIR
IS ACTUALLY OVER OUR CWA WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ADVECTING IN
FROM VA AND NC. SIMILAR SCENARIO MOISTURE AND THERMALLY AT 850
MB. AT 700MB SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IS COMING FROM THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS ALONG WITH MORE MID LEVEL MOISTURE, NOT GREAT FOR
DOWNDRAFTS. AT 500MB, AIR MASS IS 1 TO 2C WARMER UPWIND AND THE
JET AT 300MB AND 250MB IS DISPLACED TOO FAR TO THE NORTHWEST.
LATEST SREF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR REMAINS LESS THAN 30KTS FOR
TODAY WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES OF LESS THAN 1000J. MESOSCALE MODELS
DO SHOW SOME CONVECTION OCCURRING IN OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED
LOCATIONS WITH POSSIBLY CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE BLUE RIDGE
ADVECTING INTO OUR PART OF MD OR PA THIS EVENING. OVERALL THIS IS
ALL LEANING TO NO CHANGE IN THE GENERAL ONGOING FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

12Z SOUNDINGS CORROBORATE ONGOING FORECAST MAX TEMPS AND IF ONE
LIKES THE +10F 10 AM RULE, PHL`S MAX TEMP TODAY WILL BE 87.

FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT DAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY TODAY OWING TO THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND
THE HIGH, IT WON`T BE ON PAR WITH A QUINTESSENTIAL MUGGY SUMMER DAY
IN THE MID ATLANTIC. OFFICIAL TEMP FORECAST FALLS ON THE WARMER
ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE AFTER TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE RECENT COOL BIAS
EXHIBITED BY THE MODELS. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY TO BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S WHICH IS GENERALLY ON PAR WITH YESTERDAY, IF NOT A DEGREE
OR TWO WARMER. DID NOT QUITE GO HIGH ENOUGH TO FORECAST THE FIRST 90
DEGREE DAY OF THE SEASON FOR PHILADELPHIA, BUT THE POSSIBILITY
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT JUST EAST OF THE EAST
COAST TODAY. THE LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE
WILL WEAKEN OVERHEAD A BIT, WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME POP UP SHOWERS
AND STORMS FORMING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE PA AND NW NJ. THE
WINDOW FOR CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WHEN
DIURNAL INSTABILITY PEAKS AND A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MOVES AROUND THE RIDGE AND
INTO EASTERN PA. MLCAPE PROFILES BELOW 1000 J/KG AND DEEP-LAYER BULK
SHEAR BELOW 25 KT ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSE/ORGANIZED STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE TONIGHT WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH. HOURLY POPS FOR TONIGHT EXHIBIT A SEMI-
DIURNAL TREND; DECREASING AFTER SUNSET DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER, ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY LAST INTO PART OF THE
NIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA.

AT THE VERY LEAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND KEEP TEMPS
WARMER THAN IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. FORECAST LOWS ARE GENERALLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL, BUT THERE MAY
BE PATCHY FOG THAT DEVELOPS TOWARD DAWN AT INLAND LOCATIONS THAT
RECEIVE ANY RAINFALL TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS EAST COAST RIDGING AS THE DOMINANT FORCE
THROUGH MOST OF THE LONGTERM PERIOD, WITH A RIPPLE OR TWO. BY THE
WEEKEND THE RIDGING BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN, MOVES OFF TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST, WHILE GREAT LAKES TROUGHING STARTS TO PUSH IN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

OVERALL THE LONGTERM REMAINS IN TACT FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT WITH
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON TIME
PERIOD...BETTER WEST THAN EAST WITH LEE TROUGHING POSSIBLE AND
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS.

WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. EXPECTING A THERMAL/LEE SIDE TROUGH TO DEVELOP TO OUR
IMMEDIATE WEST DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS AND SLOWLY MOVE IT TO
THE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. BETTER HEATING ALONG THE RIDGE
TOPS SHOULD BE THE PRIME FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHERE HIGHER SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES SETUP AND
SOMEWHAT BETTER 0-4KM SHEAR VALUES...AROUND 35 KNOTS. ONE ISSUE IS
STRICTLY TIED TO THE TIMING OF THE TROUGHS PASSAGE AS THE SHEAR
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NONE-THE-LESS
POP-UP/AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH BETTER ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND NORTH. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
STRONG, HIGH PWATS WILL ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
TEMPERATURES STILL RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH COULD END UP A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER IN
PLACE.

NOT EXPECTING TO HAVE ISSUES WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AS WE SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MIX OUT THE DEWPOINTS A BIT, THOUGH MUCH LESS THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS, AND KEEP VALUES SLIGHTLY STICKIER THAN PREDICTED AFTERNOON
MAXES.

THURSDAY - FRIDAY...COLD FRONT LOOKS TO STALL AND EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY. THE FORCING WITH THE FRONT
DECREASES WITH TIME BECOMING NIL BY FRIDAY. AGAIN, WITH A WARM
AIRMASS IN PLACE, THOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS, WE WILL
HAVE PLENTY OF DEWPOINT POOLING OCCURRING TO KEEP THE CHANCE POPS
BOTH DAYS...DIFFUSE FRONT WILL ACT AS A MOISTURE CONDUIT WITH
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN BEING THE BIGGER ISSUE COMPARED TO SEVERE
STORMS.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...WE WILL KEY ON SUNDAY VS SATURDAY AS THE
CONVECTIVELY MORE ACTIVE DAY GIVEN THE BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS AND
OVERALL TENDENCY FOR A SLOWER TIMING. POPS HIT A RELATIVE LOW ON
SATURDAY BEFORE RAMPING UP AGAIN ON SUNDAY. ALSO GIVEN THE SLOWER
FRONTAL TIMING, MAX TEMPS ARE MUCH CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE AND EC MOS
GUIDANCE THAN GFS MOS.

MONDAY...INITIAL LOOK AT MONDAY HAS THE FRONT STALLED JUST SOUTH OF
OUR CWA, THIS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY COOLER WITH STILL SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND. EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO KEEP
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE REGION WHICH MAY PRODUCE A MUCH NEEDED
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WITH SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS...JET INTERACTION AND PASSING SHORTWAVES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

18Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR TOWARD WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...VFR WITH MID LEVEL
DECK CIG LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD MOST TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH PEAK
GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS. NO DEFINABLE SEA BREEZE FRONT. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF
TERMINALS, LOWEST CONFIDENCE EARLY THIS EVE IN KRDG, HIGHER
CONFIDENCE KPHL TO COAST.

EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT...VFR. MID LEVEL DECK CIG FROM KPHL METRO
AREA AIRPORTS WEST AND NORTH. SOUTH WINDS DECREASING TO 5 TO 10
KNOTS.

EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE ABOUT A MVFR CIG
FORMING ALONG WITH MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT MORE RURAL AIRPORTS
AND TERMINALS. FOG WOULD BECOME MORE LIKELY IF MID DECK CIG DOES
NOT MATERIALIZE. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS.

WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...CIGS AND VSBYS BECOMING
VFR. CU DECK HEIGHT IS WEIGHED TOWARD START OF FCST PERIOD, IT
SHOULD BECOME HIGHER AS MORNING AND AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TSTMS WILL START FORMING WEST OF THE AREA,
TIMING FOR KPHL CLOSE TO 00Z SO NOT INCLUDED IN PRESENT TAF.


OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS...BETTER CHANCES
ACROSS RDG/ABE.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS FOLLOWED BY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING WAS CANCELLED AS WINDS ARE BELOW 20 KT AND SEAS 4 FT OR
LESS.

DEBATED ON WHETHER OR NOT TO ISSUE A SCA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FOR A PERIOD LATE IN THE DAY TODAY
AND WAVES WILL RESPOND ACCORDINGLY. OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY MARINE
HEADLINE SINCE THE WIND FIELD WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER THIS AFTERNOON
THAN YESTERDAY, SO NEAR-SHORE GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE BELOW 25 KT.
WINDS WILL BE STRONGER A FEW MILES OFFSHORE BUT MIXING WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER DUE TO THE COOLER WATERS. SEAS TONIGHT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE AROUND 4 FT IN THE COASTAL ATLANTIC.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
INPLACE. GUSTS MAY REACH 25 KNOTS WITH SEAS REACHING 5 FEET ON
THE OCEAN WATERS. STILL DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A SCA
ON THIS SHIFT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD BE BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS A WEAKER PRESSURE PATTERN SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOP 10 WARMEST MAY WILL OCCUR IN LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

THE FIRST 25 DAYS OF MAY IN OUR FORECAST AREA WERE AVERAGING
ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

RUNNING THE NUMBERS FROM THE FCST THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH WE
FIND THE FOLLOWING.

FOR PHILADELPHIA...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1874.
PROJECTING A MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 69 TO 70 RISING FROM
THE CURRENT VALUE OF 67.8, AT LEAST 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
HEADING FOR MOST LIKELY THE THIRD WARMEST MAY ON RECORD. WARMEST
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN MAY ON RECORD WAS 70.8 IN 1991. THEN 69.2
2004 AND 68.2 IN 2012.

FOR ALLENTOWN...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1922. THE MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IS CURRENTLY 63.9 DEGREES. IT IS LIKELY TO
INCREASE BY A DEGREE OR TWO LATER THIS WEEK, LEADING TO A TOP 10
WARMEST MAY THIS YEAR AT ALLENTOWN. THE WARMEST AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE IN MAY WAS 67.2 BACK IN 1991.

FOR WILMINGTON.... THE MONTH OF MAY IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE
TOP 5- 10 WARMEST. THE CURRENT MONTHLY TEMPERATURE IS 65.8 DEGREES
AND SHOULD RISE A DEGREE OR TWO BY MONTHS END. THE WARMEST MAY WAS
IN 1896 WHERE THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 70.1 DEGREES. IN 1991
THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 69.1 DEGREES.

FOR ATLANTIC CITY... THE MONTH IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE TOP
THREE WARMEST MAYS. CURRENTLY, THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE
MONTH IS 64.5 DEGREES AND IS LIKELY TO RISE A DEGREE TOR TWO BY
MONTHS END. THE WARMEST MAY WAS BACK IN 2004 WHERE THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE REACHED 66.9 DEGREES. IN 1991 THE MONTHLY AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE WAS 66 DEGREES. BOTH 2011 AND 2012 SAW A MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 65 DEGREES.

NORMAL FIRST DATE OF 90 OR HIGHER.

PHILADELPHIA MAY 29 ALLENTOWN MAY 30 WILMINGTON JUNE 4 ATLANTIC
CITY JUNE 11.

*************************************************************

HERE IS OUR ANNUAL LOOK AS TO HOW HOT, HOT, HOT THE SUMMER WILL
BE BASED ON PAST PERFORMANCES.

A FULL FLEDGED EL NINO IS UNDERWAY IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. ALL
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS KEEP IT GOING, THE DIFFERENCES
THAT EXIST ARE TO ITS STRENGTH THROUGH THIS UPCOMING SUMMER. THE
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS ARE AVERAGING A MODERATE EL NINO
FOR THE COMBINED SUMMER MONTHS. SOME MODELS, INCLUDING THE CFS2
AND ECMWF ARE PREDICTING A STRONG EL NINO. IN THE CPC MONITORING
EL NINO ERA STARTING SINCE 1950, THE HIGHEST (WARMEST) SUMMER
ANOMALY RECORDED WAS +1.5C (NEAR OR AT THE THRESHOLD FOR STRONG EL
NINOS) DURING THE SUMMER OF 1997.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL REALLY SEAL THE DEAL THAT THIS MAY WILL
BE UNSEASONABLY WARM IN PHILADELPHIA. IT "MAY" EVEN BE A TOP THREE
WARMEST. THIS FOLLOWS ON THE HEELS OF AN UNSEASONABLY WARM APRIL.
SINCE 1872, THE COMBINATION OF BOTH WARM (TOP THIRD OF ALL YEARS)
APRILS AND MAYS HAS ONLY OCCURRED TWENTY-THREE TIMES. BUT IT HAS
OCCURRED ELEVEN TIMES SINCE 1990 AND SIX OF THE LAST SEVEN
SPRINGS.

SO WE SCOURED THE CLIMATE RECORDS TO FIND BUDDING OR IN PROGRESS
EL NINOS THAT COINCIDED WITH BOTH WARM APRILS AND MAYS LOCALLY IN
THE CPC MONITORING ERA. WE FOUND THREE PAST SUMMERS THAT MET THE
CRITERIA. THE ONE SIGN IS THAT ALL THREE ANALOG SUMMERS WERE
WETTER THAN NORMAL, HOPEFULLY KEEPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS FROM
INTENSIFYING FURTHER.

THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE PREDICTIONS FOR THIS
UPCOMING SUMMER HAS WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER EXPECTED
IN OUR AREA. THE INTERNATIONAL MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE
SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC PREDICTING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION.

THE ANALOGS FOR PHILADELPHIA ARE:

YEAR    JUNE AVG   JULY AVG   AUGUST AVG   SUMMER AVG   SUMMER PCPN

1969      73.4        75.1      75.2         74.6        18.30
1977      68.6        77.8      76.2         74.2        15.50
1991      75.7        79.0      79.0         77.9        12.01
AVG       72.6        77.3      76.8         75.6        15.27

1981-
2010      73.3        78.1      76.6         76.0        11.28
NORMAL

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR OUR FORECAST AREA IS FOR EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/KLEIN
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...GIGI/HEAVENER
AVIATION...GIGI/HEAVENER
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLEIN
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 261528
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1128 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT INSTABILITY
WHILE DEEP MOISTURE WILL LIMIT THE EVAPORATIVE COOLING
POTENTIAL...HENCE ACCELERATING DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL. DESPITE
INCREASED FLOW ALOFT...DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROJECTIONS ARE
MARGINAL...AND WITH NAM SURFACE DEWPOINTS AS USUAL OVERDONE...THE
SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST TODAY. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED
BY THE MORNING INSTABILITY CHART. ANOTHER ADVANCING SHOTRTWAVE IS
EXPECTED TO BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY TWEAKED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY TODAY TO GET
MORE IN LINE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND SHIFT EASTWARD. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER
THE REGION ALLOWED BY SOUTHWEST FLOW. THEREFORE...CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS WERE MAINTAINED AND ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE.

A LULL IN PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
AS BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UNDER A WEAK RIDGE IN THE WAKE OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES RISE AGAIN ON SATURDAY SUPPORTED BY AN
APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY AND A WEAK SPLIT FLOW ALOFT. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SAG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
AS PREDICTED BY ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS.

FORECASTED TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VARIOUS LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS AGREE ON STUBBORN BOUNDARY LAID
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE CHANCE
POPS WERE PRESERVED WITH THE SUPPORT OF A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER
OVER THE OUTCOME OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST IN
TERMS OF MAGNITUDE...POSITION...AND TIMING. THEREFORE PERSISTENCE
WAS HEAVILY USED IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AND LOW CHANCE
POPS WERE INTRODUCED.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH ONLY LOCAL
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. RESTRICTION POTENTIAL...MAINLY MVFR...IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TONIGHT WITH A SATURATING BOUNDARY LAYER AND CROSSING
SHORTWAVE SUPPORTING SOME SHOWERS.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 261528
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1128 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT INSTABILITY
WHILE DEEP MOISTURE WILL LIMIT THE EVAPORATIVE COOLING
POTENTIAL...HENCE ACCELERATING DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL. DESPITE
INCREASED FLOW ALOFT...DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROJECTIONS ARE
MARGINAL...AND WITH NAM SURFACE DEWPOINTS AS USUAL OVERDONE...THE
SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST TODAY. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED
BY THE MORNING INSTABILITY CHART. ANOTHER ADVANCING SHOTRTWAVE IS
EXPECTED TO BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY TWEAKED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY TODAY TO GET
MORE IN LINE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND SHIFT EASTWARD. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER
THE REGION ALLOWED BY SOUTHWEST FLOW. THEREFORE...CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS WERE MAINTAINED AND ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE.

A LULL IN PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
AS BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UNDER A WEAK RIDGE IN THE WAKE OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES RISE AGAIN ON SATURDAY SUPPORTED BY AN
APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY AND A WEAK SPLIT FLOW ALOFT. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SAG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
AS PREDICTED BY ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS.

FORECASTED TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VARIOUS LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS AGREE ON STUBBORN BOUNDARY LAID
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE CHANCE
POPS WERE PRESERVED WITH THE SUPPORT OF A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER
OVER THE OUTCOME OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST IN
TERMS OF MAGNITUDE...POSITION...AND TIMING. THEREFORE PERSISTENCE
WAS HEAVILY USED IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AND LOW CHANCE
POPS WERE INTRODUCED.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH ONLY LOCAL
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. RESTRICTION POTENTIAL...MAINLY MVFR...IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TONIGHT WITH A SATURATING BOUNDARY LAYER AND CROSSING
SHORTWAVE SUPPORTING SOME SHOWERS.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 261456
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1056 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO
THE WEEKEND. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CRNT FCST ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDS
TODAY. INCRG LL MSTR RESULTING IN SCT-BKN SC/CU LATE THIS AM.
OFFSHORE RIDGE HOLDING FIRM WHILE WEAK S/W ENERGY CONTS TO TRACK
NE ACROSS THE MTS. LTST HIGH RES DATA SUGGESTS SCT CONVECTION
DVLPS ACROSS THE MTS IVOF SFC TROF DVLPMNT. A FEW ECHOES MAY
CROSS XTREME WRN MOST CNTYS AFTR 4 PM. OTW...A PT TO MSTLY SUNNY
AND WARM AFTRN AHEAD. HIGHS IN THE L-M80S XCPT REMAINING IN THE
70S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANY REMNANT CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT WILL DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A WARM NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY 65-70
WITH A LIGHT TO SLIGHTLY BREEZY SOUTH WIND.

THE BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS STEADFAST OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE
THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND WED...AND THEN ALONG THE
ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WED NIGHT/THU. THIS TROUGH WILL BE A KEY
PLAYER IN THE WEATHER ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM WED
THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL BREAK DOWN
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND FLATTEN THE AXIS TO BE MORE IN LINE
WITH THE SE COAST FROM NORTH CAROLINA TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC AND GULF OF MEXICO TO STREAM
INTO THE AREA AND ALSO FOR WAA PROCESSES TO ERODE AWAY AT THE
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE SINCE THE
PAST WEEKEND. THE END RESULT WILL BE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS (SHIFTING FROM WEST TO EAST EACH DAY)
AS REMNANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM MCS ACTIVITY IN THE GULF COAST
STATES ROUNDS THE TROUGH AND RIDES UP INTO THE REGION ON THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF THE MID/UPPER RIDGE. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT HOWEVER. ALSO...
EXPECT INCREASING HIGH/LOW TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS AS WAA PROCESSES
BEGIN TO ERODE AWAY AT THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS THAT HAS
BEEN IN PLACE SINCE THIS PAST WEEKEND. INCREASED MOISTURE (VIA
DEWPOINTS AND INCOMING SHORTWAVES)...INCREASED PWATS TO 1.50-2.00
INCHES...SATURATED SOUNDING PROFILES ABOVE 700-500MB...AND WEAK
STEERING FLOW ALOFT ALL SUGGEST THAT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
MAIN IMPACT WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 80S WED/THU (ABOUT
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). EXPECT TEMPS TO BE IN THE LOW-MID 80S
AT THE BEACHES. LOW TEMPS WED/THU NIGHTS 65-70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
EACH DAY AND TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR TSTMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NW AREAS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN DURING THE
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NW AND
SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY LATE IN THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

GUIDANCE HAS H85 TEMPERATURES GETTING NO HIGHER THAN 16C. CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WILL ALSO HOLD READINGS
DOWN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 85 TO 90 INLAND
AND UPR 70S TO LWR 80S NEAR THE COAST. IT WILL BE MODERATELY HUMID
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 65-70 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING S/SW WINDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT WELL INLAND...BUT IS
UNLIKELY TO AFFECT ANY OF THE TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE...BUT
SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF MAINLY LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS IS
EXPECTED WED AND THU (HIGHEST CHANCE ON THU). OUTSIDE OF TSTMS...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL...SOME PATCHY 2-4SM FOG MAY BE
POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE WEEK DURING THE EARLY AM HRS PRIOR TO
SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
10 AM UPDATE...ISSUED SCA FOR 1 PM TO 1 AM FOR THE BAY AS MODEL
GUIDANCE IS MORE SUPPORTIVE FOR INCREASING WINDS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. LATEST NAM12 SHOWS
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING OVER THE SAME AREA LATER TODAY. ALSO
WINDS INCREASED TO NEAR SCA AT A FEW LOCATIONS MONDAY EVENING AND
MODELS INDICATE STRONGER WINDS THIS EVENING AS COMPARED WITH
MONDAY EVENING. WILL EVALUATE FOR THE RIVERS BUT AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT LATEST DATA TRENDS AND THE LACK OF FETCH WITH A SOUTH
WIND ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF SCA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID ATLC COAST
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACRS ONTARIO CANADA.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL...WITH SOME MINOR DIRECTION CHANGES
ON A DIURNAL BASIS (SSE MIDDAY THROUGH EVENING TO SSW OVERNIGHT
THROUGH THE MORNING). PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY AND WED IS TIGHT
ENOUGH THAT WINDS SHOULD AVG 10 TO 15 KT...WITH SOME INCREASE IN
THE LATE AFTN/EVENING RESULTING IN GUSTS TO 20 KT. OVERALL STILL
FEEL THIS IS TOO MARGINAL TO RAISE ANY SCA HEADLINES ACRS THE
BAY/RIVERS/SOUND BUT BOATING CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE IDEAL AND
WAVES IN THE BAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AT 2-3 FT WITH COASTAL
SEAS BUILDING TO 3-4 FT. GRADIENT WEAKENS A BIT ON THU...AND WINDS
SHOULD BE A FEW KT LESS OVERALL. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN SOUTHERLY
FOR THE MOST PART INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB/MAS/LSA




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 261456
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1056 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO
THE WEEKEND. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CRNT FCST ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDS
TODAY. INCRG LL MSTR RESULTING IN SCT-BKN SC/CU LATE THIS AM.
OFFSHORE RIDGE HOLDING FIRM WHILE WEAK S/W ENERGY CONTS TO TRACK
NE ACROSS THE MTS. LTST HIGH RES DATA SUGGESTS SCT CONVECTION
DVLPS ACROSS THE MTS IVOF SFC TROF DVLPMNT. A FEW ECHOES MAY
CROSS XTREME WRN MOST CNTYS AFTR 4 PM. OTW...A PT TO MSTLY SUNNY
AND WARM AFTRN AHEAD. HIGHS IN THE L-M80S XCPT REMAINING IN THE
70S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANY REMNANT CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT WILL DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A WARM NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY 65-70
WITH A LIGHT TO SLIGHTLY BREEZY SOUTH WIND.

THE BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS STEADFAST OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE
THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND WED...AND THEN ALONG THE
ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WED NIGHT/THU. THIS TROUGH WILL BE A KEY
PLAYER IN THE WEATHER ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM WED
THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL BREAK DOWN
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND FLATTEN THE AXIS TO BE MORE IN LINE
WITH THE SE COAST FROM NORTH CAROLINA TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC AND GULF OF MEXICO TO STREAM
INTO THE AREA AND ALSO FOR WAA PROCESSES TO ERODE AWAY AT THE
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE SINCE THE
PAST WEEKEND. THE END RESULT WILL BE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS (SHIFTING FROM WEST TO EAST EACH DAY)
AS REMNANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM MCS ACTIVITY IN THE GULF COAST
STATES ROUNDS THE TROUGH AND RIDES UP INTO THE REGION ON THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF THE MID/UPPER RIDGE. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT HOWEVER. ALSO...
EXPECT INCREASING HIGH/LOW TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS AS WAA PROCESSES
BEGIN TO ERODE AWAY AT THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS THAT HAS
BEEN IN PLACE SINCE THIS PAST WEEKEND. INCREASED MOISTURE (VIA
DEWPOINTS AND INCOMING SHORTWAVES)...INCREASED PWATS TO 1.50-2.00
INCHES...SATURATED SOUNDING PROFILES ABOVE 700-500MB...AND WEAK
STEERING FLOW ALOFT ALL SUGGEST THAT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
MAIN IMPACT WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 80S WED/THU (ABOUT
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). EXPECT TEMPS TO BE IN THE LOW-MID 80S
AT THE BEACHES. LOW TEMPS WED/THU NIGHTS 65-70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
EACH DAY AND TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR TSTMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NW AREAS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN DURING THE
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NW AND
SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY LATE IN THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

GUIDANCE HAS H85 TEMPERATURES GETTING NO HIGHER THAN 16C. CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WILL ALSO HOLD READINGS
DOWN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 85 TO 90 INLAND
AND UPR 70S TO LWR 80S NEAR THE COAST. IT WILL BE MODERATELY HUMID
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 65-70 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING S/SW WINDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT WELL INLAND...BUT IS
UNLIKELY TO AFFECT ANY OF THE TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE...BUT
SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF MAINLY LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS IS
EXPECTED WED AND THU (HIGHEST CHANCE ON THU). OUTSIDE OF TSTMS...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL...SOME PATCHY 2-4SM FOG MAY BE
POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE WEEK DURING THE EARLY AM HRS PRIOR TO
SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
10 AM UPDATE...ISSUED SCA FOR 1 PM TO 1 AM FOR THE BAY AS MODEL
GUIDANCE IS MORE SUPPORTIVE FOR INCREASING WINDS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. LATEST NAM12 SHOWS
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING OVER THE SAME AREA LATER TODAY. ALSO
WINDS INCREASED TO NEAR SCA AT A FEW LOCATIONS MONDAY EVENING AND
MODELS INDICATE STRONGER WINDS THIS EVENING AS COMPARED WITH
MONDAY EVENING. WILL EVALUATE FOR THE RIVERS BUT AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT LATEST DATA TRENDS AND THE LACK OF FETCH WITH A SOUTH
WIND ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF SCA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID ATLC COAST
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACRS ONTARIO CANADA.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL...WITH SOME MINOR DIRECTION CHANGES
ON A DIURNAL BASIS (SSE MIDDAY THROUGH EVENING TO SSW OVERNIGHT
THROUGH THE MORNING). PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY AND WED IS TIGHT
ENOUGH THAT WINDS SHOULD AVG 10 TO 15 KT...WITH SOME INCREASE IN
THE LATE AFTN/EVENING RESULTING IN GUSTS TO 20 KT. OVERALL STILL
FEEL THIS IS TOO MARGINAL TO RAISE ANY SCA HEADLINES ACRS THE
BAY/RIVERS/SOUND BUT BOATING CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE IDEAL AND
WAVES IN THE BAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AT 2-3 FT WITH COASTAL
SEAS BUILDING TO 3-4 FT. GRADIENT WEAKENS A BIT ON THU...AND WINDS
SHOULD BE A FEW KT LESS OVERALL. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN SOUTHERLY
FOR THE MOST PART INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB/MAS/LSA



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 261456
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1056 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO
THE WEEKEND. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CRNT FCST ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDS
TODAY. INCRG LL MSTR RESULTING IN SCT-BKN SC/CU LATE THIS AM.
OFFSHORE RIDGE HOLDING FIRM WHILE WEAK S/W ENERGY CONTS TO TRACK
NE ACROSS THE MTS. LTST HIGH RES DATA SUGGESTS SCT CONVECTION
DVLPS ACROSS THE MTS IVOF SFC TROF DVLPMNT. A FEW ECHOES MAY
CROSS XTREME WRN MOST CNTYS AFTR 4 PM. OTW...A PT TO MSTLY SUNNY
AND WARM AFTRN AHEAD. HIGHS IN THE L-M80S XCPT REMAINING IN THE
70S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANY REMNANT CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT WILL DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A WARM NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY 65-70
WITH A LIGHT TO SLIGHTLY BREEZY SOUTH WIND.

THE BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS STEADFAST OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE
THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND WED...AND THEN ALONG THE
ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WED NIGHT/THU. THIS TROUGH WILL BE A KEY
PLAYER IN THE WEATHER ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM WED
THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL BREAK DOWN
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND FLATTEN THE AXIS TO BE MORE IN LINE
WITH THE SE COAST FROM NORTH CAROLINA TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC AND GULF OF MEXICO TO STREAM
INTO THE AREA AND ALSO FOR WAA PROCESSES TO ERODE AWAY AT THE
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE SINCE THE
PAST WEEKEND. THE END RESULT WILL BE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS (SHIFTING FROM WEST TO EAST EACH DAY)
AS REMNANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM MCS ACTIVITY IN THE GULF COAST
STATES ROUNDS THE TROUGH AND RIDES UP INTO THE REGION ON THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF THE MID/UPPER RIDGE. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT HOWEVER. ALSO...
EXPECT INCREASING HIGH/LOW TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS AS WAA PROCESSES
BEGIN TO ERODE AWAY AT THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS THAT HAS
BEEN IN PLACE SINCE THIS PAST WEEKEND. INCREASED MOISTURE (VIA
DEWPOINTS AND INCOMING SHORTWAVES)...INCREASED PWATS TO 1.50-2.00
INCHES...SATURATED SOUNDING PROFILES ABOVE 700-500MB...AND WEAK
STEERING FLOW ALOFT ALL SUGGEST THAT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
MAIN IMPACT WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 80S WED/THU (ABOUT
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). EXPECT TEMPS TO BE IN THE LOW-MID 80S
AT THE BEACHES. LOW TEMPS WED/THU NIGHTS 65-70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
EACH DAY AND TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR TSTMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NW AREAS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN DURING THE
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NW AND
SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY LATE IN THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

GUIDANCE HAS H85 TEMPERATURES GETTING NO HIGHER THAN 16C. CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WILL ALSO HOLD READINGS
DOWN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 85 TO 90 INLAND
AND UPR 70S TO LWR 80S NEAR THE COAST. IT WILL BE MODERATELY HUMID
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 65-70 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING S/SW WINDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT WELL INLAND...BUT IS
UNLIKELY TO AFFECT ANY OF THE TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE...BUT
SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF MAINLY LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS IS
EXPECTED WED AND THU (HIGHEST CHANCE ON THU). OUTSIDE OF TSTMS...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL...SOME PATCHY 2-4SM FOG MAY BE
POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE WEEK DURING THE EARLY AM HRS PRIOR TO
SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
10 AM UPDATE...ISSUED SCA FOR 1 PM TO 1 AM FOR THE BAY AS MODEL
GUIDANCE IS MORE SUPPORTIVE FOR INCREASING WINDS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. LATEST NAM12 SHOWS
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING OVER THE SAME AREA LATER TODAY. ALSO
WINDS INCREASED TO NEAR SCA AT A FEW LOCATIONS MONDAY EVENING AND
MODELS INDICATE STRONGER WINDS THIS EVENING AS COMPARED WITH
MONDAY EVENING. WILL EVALUATE FOR THE RIVERS BUT AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT LATEST DATA TRENDS AND THE LACK OF FETCH WITH A SOUTH
WIND ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF SCA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID ATLC COAST
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACRS ONTARIO CANADA.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL...WITH SOME MINOR DIRECTION CHANGES
ON A DIURNAL BASIS (SSE MIDDAY THROUGH EVENING TO SSW OVERNIGHT
THROUGH THE MORNING). PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY AND WED IS TIGHT
ENOUGH THAT WINDS SHOULD AVG 10 TO 15 KT...WITH SOME INCREASE IN
THE LATE AFTN/EVENING RESULTING IN GUSTS TO 20 KT. OVERALL STILL
FEEL THIS IS TOO MARGINAL TO RAISE ANY SCA HEADLINES ACRS THE
BAY/RIVERS/SOUND BUT BOATING CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE IDEAL AND
WAVES IN THE BAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AT 2-3 FT WITH COASTAL
SEAS BUILDING TO 3-4 FT. GRADIENT WEAKENS A BIT ON THU...AND WINDS
SHOULD BE A FEW KT LESS OVERALL. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN SOUTHERLY
FOR THE MOST PART INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB/MAS/LSA



000
FXUS61 KPHI 261430
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1030 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST WEDNESDAY AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT TRIES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND STALL IN OUR VICINITY ON
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOOKING AT THE 12Z UA ANALYSIS, NOT MUCH TO GET ATMOSPHERICALLY
EXCITED ABOUT TODAY. INFLUENCE OF NEARBY RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO HAVE A PROTECTIVE DOME OVER MOST OF OUR CWA. 925MB MOISTURE
IS LACKING NEARBY UNTIL ONE GETS TO ROANOKE. CORE OF WARMEST AIR
IS ACTUALLY OVER OUR CWA WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ADVECTING IN
FROM VA AND NC. SIMILAR SCENARIO MOISTURE AND THERMALLY AT 850
MB. AT 700MB SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IS COMING FROM THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS ALONG WITH MORE MID LEVEL MOISTURE, NOT GREAT FOR
DOWNDRAFTS. AT 500MB, AIR MASS IS 1 TO 2C WARMER UPWIND AND THE
JET AT 300MB AND 250MB IS DISPLACED TOO FAR TO THE NORTHWEST.
LATEST SREF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR REMAINS LESS THAN 30KTS FOR
TODAY WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES OF LESS THAN 1000J. MESOSCALE MODELS
DO SHOW SOME CONVECTION OCCURRING IN OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED
LOCATIONS WITH POSSIBLY CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE BLUE RIDGE
ADVECTING INTO OUR PART OF MD OR PA THIS EVENING. OVERALL THIS IS
ALL LEANING TO NO CHANGE IN THE GENERAL ONGOING FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

12Z SOUNDINGS CORROBORATE ONGOING FORECAST MAX TEMPS AND IF ONE
LIKES THE +10F 10 AM RULE, PHL`S MAX TEMP TODAY WILL BE 87.

FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT DAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY TODAY OWING TO THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND
THE HIGH, IT WON`T BE ON PAR WITH A QUINTESSENTIAL MUGGY SUMMER DAY
IN THE MID ATLANTIC. OFFICIAL TEMP FORECAST FALLS ON THE WARMER
ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE AFTER TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE RECENT COOL BIAS
EXHIBITED BY THE MODELS. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY TO BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S WHICH IS GENERALLY ON PAR WITH YESTERDAY, IF NOT A DEGREE
OR TWO WARMER. DID NOT QUITE GO HIGH ENOUGH TO FORECAST THE FIRST 90
DEGREE DAY OF THE SEASON FOR PHILADELPHIA, BUT THE POSSIBILITY
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT JUST EAST OF THE EAST
COAST TODAY. THE LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE
WILL WEAKEN OVERHEAD A BIT, WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME POP UP SHOWERS
AND STORMS FORMING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE PA AND NW NJ. THE
WINDOW FOR CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WHEN
DIURNAL INSTABILITY PEAKS AND A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MOVES AROUND THE RIDGE AND
INTO EASTERN PA. MLCAPE PROFILES BELOW 1000 J/KG AND DEEP-LAYER BULK
SHEAR BELOW 25 KT ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSE/ORGANIZED STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE TONIGHT WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH. HOURLY POPS FOR TONIGHT EXHIBIT A SEMI-
DIURNAL TREND; DECREASING AFTER SUNSET DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER, ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY LAST INTO PART OF THE
NIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA.

AT THE VERY LEAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND KEEP TEMPS
WARMER THAN IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. FORECAST LOWS ARE GENERALLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL, BUT THERE MAY
BE PATCHY FOG THAT DEVELOPS TOWARD DAWN AT INLAND LOCATIONS THAT
RECEIVE ANY RAINFALL TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS EAST COAST RIDGING AS THE DOMINANT FORCE
THROUGH MOST OF THE LONGTERM PERIOD, WITH A RIPPLE OR TWO. BY THE
WEEKEND THE RIDGING BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN, MOVES OFF TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST, WHILE GREAT LAKES TROUGHING STARTS TO PUSH IN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

OVERALL THE LONGTERM REMAINS IN TACT FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT WITH
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON TIME
PERIOD...BETTER WEST THAN EAST WITH LEE TROUGHING POSSIBLE AND
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS.

WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. EXPECTING A THERMAL/LEE SIDE TROUGH TO DEVELOP TO OUR
IMMEDIATE WEST DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS AND SLOWLY MOVE IT TO
THE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. BETTER HEATING ALONG THE RIDGE
TOPS SHOULD BE THE PRIME FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHERE HIGHER SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES SETUP AND
SOMEWHAT BETTER 0-4KM SHEAR VALUES...AROUND 35 KNOTS. ONE ISSUE IS
STRICTLY TIED TO THE TIMING OF THE TROUGHS PASSAGE AS THE SHEAR
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NONE-THE-LESS
POP-UP/AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH BETTER ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND NORTH. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
STRONG, HIGH PWATS WILL ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
TEMPERATURES STILL RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH COULD END UP A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER IN
PLACE.

NOT EXPECTING TO HAVE ISSUES WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AS WE SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MIX OUT THE DEWPOINTS A BIT, THOUGH MUCH LESS THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS, AND KEEP VALUES SLIGHTLY STICKIER THAN PREDICTED AFTERNOON
MAXES.

THURSDAY - FRIDAY...COLD FRONT LOOKS TO STALL AND EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY. THE FORCING WITH THE FRONT
DECREASES WITH TIME BECOMING NIL BY FRIDAY. AGAIN, WITH A WARM
AIRMASS IN PLACE, THOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS, WE WILL
HAVE PLENTY OF DEWPOINT POOLING OCCURRING TO KEEP THE CHANCE POPS
BOTH DAYS...DIFFUSE FRONT WILL ACT AS A MOISTURE CONDUIT WITH
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN BEING THE BIGGER ISSUE COMPARED TO SEVERE
STORMS.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...WE WILL KEY ON SUNDAY VS SATURDAY AS THE
CONVECTIVELY MORE ACTIVE DAY GIVEN THE BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS AND
OVERALL TENDENCY FOR A SLOWER TIMING. POPS HIT A RELATIVE LOW ON
SATURDAY BEFORE RAMPING UP AGAIN ON SUNDAY. ALSO GIVEN THE SLOWER
FRONTAL TIMING, MAX TEMPS ARE MUCH CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE AND EC MOS
GUIDANCE THAN GFS MOS.

MONDAY...INITIAL LOOK AT MONDAY HAS THE FRONT STALLED JUST SOUTH OF
OUR CWA, THIS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY COOLER WITH STILL SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND. EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO KEEP
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE REGION WHICH MAY PRODUCE A MUCH NEEDED
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WITH SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS...JET INTERACTION AND PASSING SHORTWAVES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PREDOMINATELY VFR TODAY AND THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS 5-10 KT
THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE. MAY SEE AN ISOLATED SHRA OR TSRA IN VC OF ABE/RDG BUT
COVERAGE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

MOST TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN AT VFR OVERNIGHT BUT PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP AT THE USUAL FOG-PRONE TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLE MORNING MVFR FOG. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS...BETTER CHANCES ACROSS RDG/ABE.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS FOLLOWED BY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING WAS CANCELLED AS WINDS ARE BELOW 20 KT AND SEAS 4 FT OR
LESS.

DEBATED ON WHETHER OR NOT TO ISSUE A SCA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FOR A PERIOD LATE IN THE DAY TODAY
AND WAVES WILL RESPOND ACCORDINGLY. OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY MARINE
HEADLINE SINCE THE WIND FIELD WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER THIS AFTERNOON
THAN YESTERDAY, SO NEAR-SHORE GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE BELOW 25 KT.
WINDS WILL BE STRONGER A FEW MILES OFFSHORE BUT MIXING WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER DUE TO THE COOLER WATERS. SEAS TONIGHT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE AROUND 4 FT IN THE COASTAL ATLANTIC.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
INPLACE. GUSTS MAY REACH 25 KNOTS WITH SEAS REACHING 5 FEET ON
THE OCEAN WATERS. STILL DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A SCA
ON THIS SHIFT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD BE BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS A WEAKER PRESSURE PATTERN SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOP 10 WARMEST MAY WILL OCCUR IN LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

THE FIRST 25 DAYS OF MAY IN OUR FORECAST AREA WERE AVERAGING
ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

RUNNING THE NUMBERS FROM THE FCST THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH WE
FIND THE FOLLOWING.

FOR PHILADELPHIA...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1874.
PROJECTING A MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 69 TO 70 RISING FROM
THE CURRENT VALUE OF 67.8, AT LEAST 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
HEADING FOR MOST LIKELY THE THIRD WARMEST MAY ON RECORD. WARMEST
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN MAY ON RECORD WAS 70.8 IN 1991. THEN 69.2
2004 AND 68.2 IN 2012.

FOR ALLENTOWN...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1922. THE MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IS CURRENTLY 63.9 DEGREES. IT IS LIKELY TO
INCREASE BY A DEGREE OR TWO LATER THIS WEEK, LEADING TO A TOP 10
WARMEST MAY THIS YEAR AT ALLENTOWN. THE WARMEST AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE IN MAY WAS 67.2 BACK IN 1991.

FOR WILMINGTON.... THE MONTH OF MAY IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE
TOP 5- 10 WARMEST. THE CURRENT MONTHLY TEMPERATURE IS 65.8 DEGREES
AND SHOULD RISE A DEGREE OR TWO BY MONTHS END. THE WARMEST MAY WAS
IN 1896 WHERE THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 70.1 DEGREES. IN 1991
THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 69.1 DEGREES.

FOR ATLANTIC CITY... THE MONTH IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE TOP
THREE WARMEST MAYS. CURRENTLY, THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE
MONTH IS 64.5 DEGREES AND IS LIKELY TO RISE A DEGREE TOR TWO BY
MONTHS END. THE WARMEST MAY WAS BACK IN 2004 WHERE THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE REACHED 66.9 DEGREES. IN 1991 THE MONTHLY AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE WAS 66 DEGREES. BOTH 2011 AND 2012 SAW A MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 65 DEGREES.

NORMAL FIRST DATE OF 90 OR HIGHER.

PHILADELPHIA MAY 29 ALLENTOWN MAY 30 WILMINGTON JUNE 4 ATLANTIC
CITY JUNE 11.

*************************************************************

HERE IS OUR ANNUAL LOOK AS TO HOW HOT, HOT, HOT THE SUMMER WILL
BE BASED ON PAST PERFORMANCES.

A FULL FLEDGED EL NINO IS UNDERWAY IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. ALL
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS KEEP IT GOING, THE DIFFERENCES
THAT EXIST ARE TO ITS STRENGTH THROUGH THIS UPCOMING SUMMER. THE
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS ARE AVERAGING A MODERATE EL NINO
FOR THE COMBINED SUMMER MONTHS. SOME MODELS, INCLUDING THE CFS2
AND ECMWF ARE PREDICTING A STRONG EL NINO. IN THE CPC MONITORING
EL NINO ERA STARTING SINCE 1950, THE HIGHEST (WARMEST) SUMMER
ANOMALY RECORDED WAS +1.5C (NEAR OR AT THE THRESHOLD FOR STRONG EL
NINOS) DURING THE SUMMER OF 1997.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL REALLY SEAL THE DEAL THAT THIS MAY WILL
BE UNSEASONABLY WARM IN PHILADELPHIA. IT "MAY" EVEN BE A TOP THREE
WARMEST. THIS FOLLOWS ON THE HEELS OF AN UNSEASONABLY WARM APRIL.
SINCE 1872, THE COMBINATION OF BOTH WARM (TOP THIRD OF ALL YEARS)
APRILS AND MAYS HAS ONLY OCCURRED TWENTY-THREE TIMES. BUT IT HAS
OCCURRED ELEVEN TIMES SINCE 1990 AND SIX OF THE LAST SEVEN
SPRINGS.

SO WE SCOURED THE CLIMATE RECORDS TO FIND BUDDING OR IN PROGRESS
EL NINOS THAT COINCIDED WITH BOTH WARM APRILS AND MAYS LOCALLY IN
THE CPC MONITORING ERA. WE FOUND THREE PAST SUMMERS THAT MET THE
CRITERIA. THE ONE SIGN IS THAT ALL THREE ANALOG SUMMERS WERE
WETTER THAN NORMAL, HOPEFULLY KEEPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS FROM
INTENSIFYING FURTHER.

THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE PREDICTIONS FOR THIS
UPCOMING SUMMER HAS WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER EXPECTED
IN OUR AREA. THE INTERNATIONAL MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE
SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC PREDICTING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION.

THE ANALOGS FOR PHILADELPHIA ARE:

YEAR    JUNE AVG   JULY AVG   AUGUST AVG   SUMMER AVG   SUMMER PCPN

1969      73.4        75.1      75.2         74.6        18.30
1977      68.6        77.8      76.2         74.2        15.50
1991      75.7        79.0      79.0         77.9        12.01
AVG       72.6        77.3      76.8         75.6        15.27

1981-
2010      73.3        78.1      76.6         76.0        11.28
NORMAL

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR OUR FORECAST AREA IS FOR EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/KLEIN
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...GIGI/HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLEIN
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLEIN
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 261430
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1030 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST WEDNESDAY AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT TRIES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND STALL IN OUR VICINITY ON
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOOKING AT THE 12Z UA ANALYSIS, NOT MUCH TO GET ATMOSPHERICALLY
EXCITED ABOUT TODAY. INFLUENCE OF NEARBY RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO HAVE A PROTECTIVE DOME OVER MOST OF OUR CWA. 925MB MOISTURE
IS LACKING NEARBY UNTIL ONE GETS TO ROANOKE. CORE OF WARMEST AIR
IS ACTUALLY OVER OUR CWA WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ADVECTING IN
FROM VA AND NC. SIMILAR SCENARIO MOISTURE AND THERMALLY AT 850
MB. AT 700MB SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IS COMING FROM THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS ALONG WITH MORE MID LEVEL MOISTURE, NOT GREAT FOR
DOWNDRAFTS. AT 500MB, AIR MASS IS 1 TO 2C WARMER UPWIND AND THE
JET AT 300MB AND 250MB IS DISPLACED TOO FAR TO THE NORTHWEST.
LATEST SREF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR REMAINS LESS THAN 30KTS FOR
TODAY WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES OF LESS THAN 1000J. MESOSCALE MODELS
DO SHOW SOME CONVECTION OCCURRING IN OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED
LOCATIONS WITH POSSIBLY CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE BLUE RIDGE
ADVECTING INTO OUR PART OF MD OR PA THIS EVENING. OVERALL THIS IS
ALL LEANING TO NO CHANGE IN THE GENERAL ONGOING FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

12Z SOUNDINGS CORROBORATE ONGOING FORECAST MAX TEMPS AND IF ONE
LIKES THE +10F 10 AM RULE, PHL`S MAX TEMP TODAY WILL BE 87.

FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT DAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY TODAY OWING TO THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND
THE HIGH, IT WON`T BE ON PAR WITH A QUINTESSENTIAL MUGGY SUMMER DAY
IN THE MID ATLANTIC. OFFICIAL TEMP FORECAST FALLS ON THE WARMER
ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE AFTER TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE RECENT COOL BIAS
EXHIBITED BY THE MODELS. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY TO BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S WHICH IS GENERALLY ON PAR WITH YESTERDAY, IF NOT A DEGREE
OR TWO WARMER. DID NOT QUITE GO HIGH ENOUGH TO FORECAST THE FIRST 90
DEGREE DAY OF THE SEASON FOR PHILADELPHIA, BUT THE POSSIBILITY
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT JUST EAST OF THE EAST
COAST TODAY. THE LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE
WILL WEAKEN OVERHEAD A BIT, WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME POP UP SHOWERS
AND STORMS FORMING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE PA AND NW NJ. THE
WINDOW FOR CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WHEN
DIURNAL INSTABILITY PEAKS AND A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MOVES AROUND THE RIDGE AND
INTO EASTERN PA. MLCAPE PROFILES BELOW 1000 J/KG AND DEEP-LAYER BULK
SHEAR BELOW 25 KT ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSE/ORGANIZED STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE TONIGHT WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH. HOURLY POPS FOR TONIGHT EXHIBIT A SEMI-
DIURNAL TREND; DECREASING AFTER SUNSET DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER, ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY LAST INTO PART OF THE
NIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA.

AT THE VERY LEAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND KEEP TEMPS
WARMER THAN IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. FORECAST LOWS ARE GENERALLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL, BUT THERE MAY
BE PATCHY FOG THAT DEVELOPS TOWARD DAWN AT INLAND LOCATIONS THAT
RECEIVE ANY RAINFALL TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS EAST COAST RIDGING AS THE DOMINANT FORCE
THROUGH MOST OF THE LONGTERM PERIOD, WITH A RIPPLE OR TWO. BY THE
WEEKEND THE RIDGING BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN, MOVES OFF TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST, WHILE GREAT LAKES TROUGHING STARTS TO PUSH IN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

OVERALL THE LONGTERM REMAINS IN TACT FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT WITH
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON TIME
PERIOD...BETTER WEST THAN EAST WITH LEE TROUGHING POSSIBLE AND
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS.

WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. EXPECTING A THERMAL/LEE SIDE TROUGH TO DEVELOP TO OUR
IMMEDIATE WEST DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS AND SLOWLY MOVE IT TO
THE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. BETTER HEATING ALONG THE RIDGE
TOPS SHOULD BE THE PRIME FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHERE HIGHER SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES SETUP AND
SOMEWHAT BETTER 0-4KM SHEAR VALUES...AROUND 35 KNOTS. ONE ISSUE IS
STRICTLY TIED TO THE TIMING OF THE TROUGHS PASSAGE AS THE SHEAR
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NONE-THE-LESS
POP-UP/AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH BETTER ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND NORTH. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
STRONG, HIGH PWATS WILL ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
TEMPERATURES STILL RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH COULD END UP A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER IN
PLACE.

NOT EXPECTING TO HAVE ISSUES WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AS WE SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MIX OUT THE DEWPOINTS A BIT, THOUGH MUCH LESS THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS, AND KEEP VALUES SLIGHTLY STICKIER THAN PREDICTED AFTERNOON
MAXES.

THURSDAY - FRIDAY...COLD FRONT LOOKS TO STALL AND EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY. THE FORCING WITH THE FRONT
DECREASES WITH TIME BECOMING NIL BY FRIDAY. AGAIN, WITH A WARM
AIRMASS IN PLACE, THOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS, WE WILL
HAVE PLENTY OF DEWPOINT POOLING OCCURRING TO KEEP THE CHANCE POPS
BOTH DAYS...DIFFUSE FRONT WILL ACT AS A MOISTURE CONDUIT WITH
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN BEING THE BIGGER ISSUE COMPARED TO SEVERE
STORMS.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...WE WILL KEY ON SUNDAY VS SATURDAY AS THE
CONVECTIVELY MORE ACTIVE DAY GIVEN THE BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS AND
OVERALL TENDENCY FOR A SLOWER TIMING. POPS HIT A RELATIVE LOW ON
SATURDAY BEFORE RAMPING UP AGAIN ON SUNDAY. ALSO GIVEN THE SLOWER
FRONTAL TIMING, MAX TEMPS ARE MUCH CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE AND EC MOS
GUIDANCE THAN GFS MOS.

MONDAY...INITIAL LOOK AT MONDAY HAS THE FRONT STALLED JUST SOUTH OF
OUR CWA, THIS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY COOLER WITH STILL SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND. EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO KEEP
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE REGION WHICH MAY PRODUCE A MUCH NEEDED
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WITH SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS...JET INTERACTION AND PASSING SHORTWAVES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PREDOMINATELY VFR TODAY AND THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS 5-10 KT
THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE. MAY SEE AN ISOLATED SHRA OR TSRA IN VC OF ABE/RDG BUT
COVERAGE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

MOST TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN AT VFR OVERNIGHT BUT PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP AT THE USUAL FOG-PRONE TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLE MORNING MVFR FOG. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS...BETTER CHANCES ACROSS RDG/ABE.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS FOLLOWED BY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING WAS CANCELLED AS WINDS ARE BELOW 20 KT AND SEAS 4 FT OR
LESS.

DEBATED ON WHETHER OR NOT TO ISSUE A SCA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FOR A PERIOD LATE IN THE DAY TODAY
AND WAVES WILL RESPOND ACCORDINGLY. OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY MARINE
HEADLINE SINCE THE WIND FIELD WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER THIS AFTERNOON
THAN YESTERDAY, SO NEAR-SHORE GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE BELOW 25 KT.
WINDS WILL BE STRONGER A FEW MILES OFFSHORE BUT MIXING WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER DUE TO THE COOLER WATERS. SEAS TONIGHT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE AROUND 4 FT IN THE COASTAL ATLANTIC.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
INPLACE. GUSTS MAY REACH 25 KNOTS WITH SEAS REACHING 5 FEET ON
THE OCEAN WATERS. STILL DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A SCA
ON THIS SHIFT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD BE BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS A WEAKER PRESSURE PATTERN SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOP 10 WARMEST MAY WILL OCCUR IN LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

THE FIRST 25 DAYS OF MAY IN OUR FORECAST AREA WERE AVERAGING
ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

RUNNING THE NUMBERS FROM THE FCST THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH WE
FIND THE FOLLOWING.

FOR PHILADELPHIA...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1874.
PROJECTING A MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 69 TO 70 RISING FROM
THE CURRENT VALUE OF 67.8, AT LEAST 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
HEADING FOR MOST LIKELY THE THIRD WARMEST MAY ON RECORD. WARMEST
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN MAY ON RECORD WAS 70.8 IN 1991. THEN 69.2
2004 AND 68.2 IN 2012.

FOR ALLENTOWN...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1922. THE MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IS CURRENTLY 63.9 DEGREES. IT IS LIKELY TO
INCREASE BY A DEGREE OR TWO LATER THIS WEEK, LEADING TO A TOP 10
WARMEST MAY THIS YEAR AT ALLENTOWN. THE WARMEST AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE IN MAY WAS 67.2 BACK IN 1991.

FOR WILMINGTON.... THE MONTH OF MAY IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE
TOP 5- 10 WARMEST. THE CURRENT MONTHLY TEMPERATURE IS 65.8 DEGREES
AND SHOULD RISE A DEGREE OR TWO BY MONTHS END. THE WARMEST MAY WAS
IN 1896 WHERE THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 70.1 DEGREES. IN 1991
THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 69.1 DEGREES.

FOR ATLANTIC CITY... THE MONTH IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE TOP
THREE WARMEST MAYS. CURRENTLY, THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE
MONTH IS 64.5 DEGREES AND IS LIKELY TO RISE A DEGREE TOR TWO BY
MONTHS END. THE WARMEST MAY WAS BACK IN 2004 WHERE THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE REACHED 66.9 DEGREES. IN 1991 THE MONTHLY AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE WAS 66 DEGREES. BOTH 2011 AND 2012 SAW A MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 65 DEGREES.

NORMAL FIRST DATE OF 90 OR HIGHER.

PHILADELPHIA MAY 29 ALLENTOWN MAY 30 WILMINGTON JUNE 4 ATLANTIC
CITY JUNE 11.

*************************************************************

HERE IS OUR ANNUAL LOOK AS TO HOW HOT, HOT, HOT THE SUMMER WILL
BE BASED ON PAST PERFORMANCES.

A FULL FLEDGED EL NINO IS UNDERWAY IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. ALL
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS KEEP IT GOING, THE DIFFERENCES
THAT EXIST ARE TO ITS STRENGTH THROUGH THIS UPCOMING SUMMER. THE
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS ARE AVERAGING A MODERATE EL NINO
FOR THE COMBINED SUMMER MONTHS. SOME MODELS, INCLUDING THE CFS2
AND ECMWF ARE PREDICTING A STRONG EL NINO. IN THE CPC MONITORING
EL NINO ERA STARTING SINCE 1950, THE HIGHEST (WARMEST) SUMMER
ANOMALY RECORDED WAS +1.5C (NEAR OR AT THE THRESHOLD FOR STRONG EL
NINOS) DURING THE SUMMER OF 1997.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL REALLY SEAL THE DEAL THAT THIS MAY WILL
BE UNSEASONABLY WARM IN PHILADELPHIA. IT "MAY" EVEN BE A TOP THREE
WARMEST. THIS FOLLOWS ON THE HEELS OF AN UNSEASONABLY WARM APRIL.
SINCE 1872, THE COMBINATION OF BOTH WARM (TOP THIRD OF ALL YEARS)
APRILS AND MAYS HAS ONLY OCCURRED TWENTY-THREE TIMES. BUT IT HAS
OCCURRED ELEVEN TIMES SINCE 1990 AND SIX OF THE LAST SEVEN
SPRINGS.

SO WE SCOURED THE CLIMATE RECORDS TO FIND BUDDING OR IN PROGRESS
EL NINOS THAT COINCIDED WITH BOTH WARM APRILS AND MAYS LOCALLY IN
THE CPC MONITORING ERA. WE FOUND THREE PAST SUMMERS THAT MET THE
CRITERIA. THE ONE SIGN IS THAT ALL THREE ANALOG SUMMERS WERE
WETTER THAN NORMAL, HOPEFULLY KEEPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS FROM
INTENSIFYING FURTHER.

THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE PREDICTIONS FOR THIS
UPCOMING SUMMER HAS WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER EXPECTED
IN OUR AREA. THE INTERNATIONAL MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE
SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC PREDICTING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION.

THE ANALOGS FOR PHILADELPHIA ARE:

YEAR    JUNE AVG   JULY AVG   AUGUST AVG   SUMMER AVG   SUMMER PCPN

1969      73.4        75.1      75.2         74.6        18.30
1977      68.6        77.8      76.2         74.2        15.50
1991      75.7        79.0      79.0         77.9        12.01
AVG       72.6        77.3      76.8         75.6        15.27

1981-
2010      73.3        78.1      76.6         76.0        11.28
NORMAL

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR OUR FORECAST AREA IS FOR EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/KLEIN
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...GIGI/HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLEIN
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLEIN
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 261409
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1009 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH PERIODS OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM PRIMARILY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN AREA OF VERY WEAK MOISTURE/LIFT IS ROTATING UP INTO THE SW
PANHANDLE OF VA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN
WEAKENING OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
FOR FAR WRN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS MORNING (DESPITE WEAK RADAR
ECHO RETURNS SEEN IN COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY IMAGES). THE DAY WILL
BEGIN MOSTLY SUNNY EAST AND PARTLY SUNNY WEST...WITH MID/HIGH
CLOUDS SPREADING NNE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO SIT OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVERHEAD TODAY. THE MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL HAMPER THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION UNTIL THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF
THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE BY THIS EVENING. THE MAJORITY OF THE FA
WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY...EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN PIEDMONT WHERE WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE MID/UPPER RIDGE COULD
PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH ADDITIONAL LIFT DURING PEAK HEATING TO TOUCH
OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET ONCE
HEATING IS LIMITED/LOST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN MONDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 80S (UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S AT THE BEACHES). DEWPOINTS WILL RUN ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES WARMER WHICH WILL MARK A RETURN TO INCREASINGLY HUMID
CONDITIONS IN THIS WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...ANY REMNANT
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A WARM NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY 65-70
WITH A LIGHT TO SLIGHTLY BREEZY SOUTH WIND.

THE BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS STEADFAST OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE
THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND WED...AND THEN ALONG THE
ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WED NIGHT/THU. THIS TROUGH WILL BE A KEY
PLAYER IN THE WEATHER ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM WED
THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL BREAK DOWN
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND FLATTEN THE AXIS TO BE MORE IN LINE
WITH THE SE COAST FROM NORTH CAROLINA TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC AND GULF OF MEXICO TO STREAM
INTO THE AREA AND ALSO FOR WAA PROCESSES TO ERODE AWAY AT THE
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE SINCE THE
PAST WEEKEND. THE END RESULT WILL BE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS (SHIFTING FROM WEST TO EAST EACH DAY)
AS REMNANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM MCS ACTIVITY IN THE GULF COAST
STATES ROUNDS THE TROUGH AND RIDES UP INTO THE REGION ON THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF THE MID/UPPER RIDGE. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT HOWEVER. ALSO...
EXPECT INCREASING HIGH/LOW TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS AS WAA PROCESSES
BEGIN TO ERODE AWAY AT THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS THAT HAS
BEEN IN PLACE SINCE THIS PAST WEEKEND. INCREASED MOISTURE (VIA
DEWPOINTS AND INCOMING SHORTWAVES)...INCREASED PWATS TO 1.50-2.00
INCHES...SATURATED SOUNDING PROFILES ABOVE 700-500MB...AND WEAK
STEERING FLOW ALOFT ALL SUGGEST THAT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
MAIN IMPACT WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 80S WED/THU (ABOUT
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). EXPECT TEMPS TO BE IN THE LOW-MID 80S
AT THE BEACHES. LOW TEMPS WED/THU NIGHTS 65-70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
EACH DAY AND TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR TSTMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NW AREAS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN DURING THE
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NW AND
SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY LATE IN THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

GUIDANCE HAS H85 TEMPERATURES GETTING NO HIGHER THAN 16C. CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WILL ALSO HOLD READINGS
DOWN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 85 TO 90 INLAND
AND UPR 70S TO LWR 80S NEAR THE COAST. IT WILL BE MODERATELY HUMID
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 65-70 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING S/SW WINDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT WELL INLAND...BUT IS
UNLIKELY TO AFFECT ANY OF THE TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE...BUT
SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF MAINLY LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS IS
EXPECTED WED AND THU (HIGHEST CHANCE ON THU). OUTSIDE OF TSTMS...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL...SOME PATCHY 2-4SM FOG MAY BE
POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE WEEK DURING THE EARLY AM HRS PRIOR TO
SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
10 AM UPDATE...ISSUED SCA FOR 1 PM TO 1 AM FOR THE BAY AS MODEL
GUIDANCE IS MORE SUPPORTIVE FOR INCREASING WINDS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. LATEST NAM12 SHOWS
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING OVER THE SAME AREA LATER TODAY. ALSO
WINDS INCREASED TO NEAR SCA AT A FEW LOCATIONS MONDAY EVENING AND
MODELS INDICATE STRONGER WINDS THIS EVENING AS COMPARED WITH
MONDAY EVENING. WILL EVALUATE FOR THE RIVERS BUT AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT LATEST DATA TRENDS AND THE LACK OF FETCH WITH A SOUTH
WIND ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF SCA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID ATLC COAST
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACRS ONTARIO CANADA.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL...WITH SOME MINOR DIRECTION CHANGES
ON A DIURNAL BASIS (SSE MIDDAY THROUGH EVENING TO SSW OVERNIGHT
THROUGH THE MORNING). PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY AND WED IS TIGHT
ENOUGH THAT WINDS SHOULD AVG 10 TO 15 KT...WITH SOME INCREASE IN
THE LATE AFTN/EVENING RESULTING IN GUSTS TO 20 KT. OVERALL STILL
FEEL THIS IS TOO MARGINAL TO RAISE ANY SCA HEADLINES ACRS THE
BAY/RIVERS/SOUND BUT BOATING CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE IDEAL AND
WAVES IN THE BAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AT 2-3 FT WITH COASTAL
SEAS BUILDING TO 3-4 FT. GRADIENT WEAKENS A BIT ON THU...AND WINDS
SHOULD BE A FEW KT LESS OVERALL. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN SOUTHERLY
FOR THE MOST PART INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB/MAS/LSA



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 261409
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1009 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH PERIODS OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM PRIMARILY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN AREA OF VERY WEAK MOISTURE/LIFT IS ROTATING UP INTO THE SW
PANHANDLE OF VA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN
WEAKENING OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
FOR FAR WRN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS MORNING (DESPITE WEAK RADAR
ECHO RETURNS SEEN IN COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY IMAGES). THE DAY WILL
BEGIN MOSTLY SUNNY EAST AND PARTLY SUNNY WEST...WITH MID/HIGH
CLOUDS SPREADING NNE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO SIT OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVERHEAD TODAY. THE MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL HAMPER THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION UNTIL THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF
THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE BY THIS EVENING. THE MAJORITY OF THE FA
WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY...EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN PIEDMONT WHERE WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE MID/UPPER RIDGE COULD
PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH ADDITIONAL LIFT DURING PEAK HEATING TO TOUCH
OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET ONCE
HEATING IS LIMITED/LOST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN MONDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 80S (UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S AT THE BEACHES). DEWPOINTS WILL RUN ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES WARMER WHICH WILL MARK A RETURN TO INCREASINGLY HUMID
CONDITIONS IN THIS WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...ANY REMNANT
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A WARM NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY 65-70
WITH A LIGHT TO SLIGHTLY BREEZY SOUTH WIND.

THE BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS STEADFAST OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE
THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND WED...AND THEN ALONG THE
ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WED NIGHT/THU. THIS TROUGH WILL BE A KEY
PLAYER IN THE WEATHER ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM WED
THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL BREAK DOWN
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND FLATTEN THE AXIS TO BE MORE IN LINE
WITH THE SE COAST FROM NORTH CAROLINA TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC AND GULF OF MEXICO TO STREAM
INTO THE AREA AND ALSO FOR WAA PROCESSES TO ERODE AWAY AT THE
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE SINCE THE
PAST WEEKEND. THE END RESULT WILL BE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS (SHIFTING FROM WEST TO EAST EACH DAY)
AS REMNANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM MCS ACTIVITY IN THE GULF COAST
STATES ROUNDS THE TROUGH AND RIDES UP INTO THE REGION ON THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF THE MID/UPPER RIDGE. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT HOWEVER. ALSO...
EXPECT INCREASING HIGH/LOW TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS AS WAA PROCESSES
BEGIN TO ERODE AWAY AT THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS THAT HAS
BEEN IN PLACE SINCE THIS PAST WEEKEND. INCREASED MOISTURE (VIA
DEWPOINTS AND INCOMING SHORTWAVES)...INCREASED PWATS TO 1.50-2.00
INCHES...SATURATED SOUNDING PROFILES ABOVE 700-500MB...AND WEAK
STEERING FLOW ALOFT ALL SUGGEST THAT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
MAIN IMPACT WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 80S WED/THU (ABOUT
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). EXPECT TEMPS TO BE IN THE LOW-MID 80S
AT THE BEACHES. LOW TEMPS WED/THU NIGHTS 65-70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
EACH DAY AND TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR TSTMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NW AREAS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN DURING THE
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NW AND
SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY LATE IN THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

GUIDANCE HAS H85 TEMPERATURES GETTING NO HIGHER THAN 16C. CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WILL ALSO HOLD READINGS
DOWN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 85 TO 90 INLAND
AND UPR 70S TO LWR 80S NEAR THE COAST. IT WILL BE MODERATELY HUMID
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 65-70 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING S/SW WINDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT WELL INLAND...BUT IS
UNLIKELY TO AFFECT ANY OF THE TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE...BUT
SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF MAINLY LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS IS
EXPECTED WED AND THU (HIGHEST CHANCE ON THU). OUTSIDE OF TSTMS...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL...SOME PATCHY 2-4SM FOG MAY BE
POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE WEEK DURING THE EARLY AM HRS PRIOR TO
SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
10 AM UPDATE...ISSUED SCA FOR 1 PM TO 1 AM FOR THE BAY AS MODEL
GUIDANCE IS MORE SUPPORTIVE FOR INCREASING WINDS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. LATEST NAM12 SHOWS
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING OVER THE SAME AREA LATER TODAY. ALSO
WINDS INCREASED TO NEAR SCA AT A FEW LOCATIONS MONDAY EVENING AND
MODELS INDICATE STRONGER WINDS THIS EVENING AS COMPARED WITH
MONDAY EVENING. WILL EVALUATE FOR THE RIVERS BUT AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT LATEST DATA TRENDS AND THE LACK OF FETCH WITH A SOUTH
WIND ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF SCA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID ATLC COAST
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACRS ONTARIO CANADA.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL...WITH SOME MINOR DIRECTION CHANGES
ON A DIURNAL BASIS (SSE MIDDAY THROUGH EVENING TO SSW OVERNIGHT
THROUGH THE MORNING). PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY AND WED IS TIGHT
ENOUGH THAT WINDS SHOULD AVG 10 TO 15 KT...WITH SOME INCREASE IN
THE LATE AFTN/EVENING RESULTING IN GUSTS TO 20 KT. OVERALL STILL
FEEL THIS IS TOO MARGINAL TO RAISE ANY SCA HEADLINES ACRS THE
BAY/RIVERS/SOUND BUT BOATING CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE IDEAL AND
WAVES IN THE BAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AT 2-3 FT WITH COASTAL
SEAS BUILDING TO 3-4 FT. GRADIENT WEAKENS A BIT ON THU...AND WINDS
SHOULD BE A FEW KT LESS OVERALL. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN SOUTHERLY
FOR THE MOST PART INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB/MAS/LSA



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 261409
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1009 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH PERIODS OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM PRIMARILY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN AREA OF VERY WEAK MOISTURE/LIFT IS ROTATING UP INTO THE SW
PANHANDLE OF VA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN
WEAKENING OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
FOR FAR WRN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS MORNING (DESPITE WEAK RADAR
ECHO RETURNS SEEN IN COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY IMAGES). THE DAY WILL
BEGIN MOSTLY SUNNY EAST AND PARTLY SUNNY WEST...WITH MID/HIGH
CLOUDS SPREADING NNE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO SIT OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVERHEAD TODAY. THE MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL HAMPER THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION UNTIL THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF
THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE BY THIS EVENING. THE MAJORITY OF THE FA
WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY...EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN PIEDMONT WHERE WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE MID/UPPER RIDGE COULD
PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH ADDITIONAL LIFT DURING PEAK HEATING TO TOUCH
OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET ONCE
HEATING IS LIMITED/LOST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN MONDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 80S (UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S AT THE BEACHES). DEWPOINTS WILL RUN ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES WARMER WHICH WILL MARK A RETURN TO INCREASINGLY HUMID
CONDITIONS IN THIS WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...ANY REMNANT
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A WARM NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY 65-70
WITH A LIGHT TO SLIGHTLY BREEZY SOUTH WIND.

THE BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS STEADFAST OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE
THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND WED...AND THEN ALONG THE
ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WED NIGHT/THU. THIS TROUGH WILL BE A KEY
PLAYER IN THE WEATHER ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM WED
THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL BREAK DOWN
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND FLATTEN THE AXIS TO BE MORE IN LINE
WITH THE SE COAST FROM NORTH CAROLINA TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC AND GULF OF MEXICO TO STREAM
INTO THE AREA AND ALSO FOR WAA PROCESSES TO ERODE AWAY AT THE
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE SINCE THE
PAST WEEKEND. THE END RESULT WILL BE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS (SHIFTING FROM WEST TO EAST EACH DAY)
AS REMNANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM MCS ACTIVITY IN THE GULF COAST
STATES ROUNDS THE TROUGH AND RIDES UP INTO THE REGION ON THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF THE MID/UPPER RIDGE. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT HOWEVER. ALSO...
EXPECT INCREASING HIGH/LOW TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS AS WAA PROCESSES
BEGIN TO ERODE AWAY AT THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS THAT HAS
BEEN IN PLACE SINCE THIS PAST WEEKEND. INCREASED MOISTURE (VIA
DEWPOINTS AND INCOMING SHORTWAVES)...INCREASED PWATS TO 1.50-2.00
INCHES...SATURATED SOUNDING PROFILES ABOVE 700-500MB...AND WEAK
STEERING FLOW ALOFT ALL SUGGEST THAT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
MAIN IMPACT WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 80S WED/THU (ABOUT
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). EXPECT TEMPS TO BE IN THE LOW-MID 80S
AT THE BEACHES. LOW TEMPS WED/THU NIGHTS 65-70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
EACH DAY AND TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR TSTMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NW AREAS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN DURING THE
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NW AND
SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY LATE IN THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

GUIDANCE HAS H85 TEMPERATURES GETTING NO HIGHER THAN 16C. CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WILL ALSO HOLD READINGS
DOWN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 85 TO 90 INLAND
AND UPR 70S TO LWR 80S NEAR THE COAST. IT WILL BE MODERATELY HUMID
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 65-70 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING S/SW WINDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT WELL INLAND...BUT IS
UNLIKELY TO AFFECT ANY OF THE TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE...BUT
SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF MAINLY LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS IS
EXPECTED WED AND THU (HIGHEST CHANCE ON THU). OUTSIDE OF TSTMS...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL...SOME PATCHY 2-4SM FOG MAY BE
POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE WEEK DURING THE EARLY AM HRS PRIOR TO
SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
10 AM UPDATE...ISSUED SCA FOR 1 PM TO 1 AM FOR THE BAY AS MODEL
GUIDANCE IS MORE SUPPORTIVE FOR INCREASING WINDS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. LATEST NAM12 SHOWS
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING OVER THE SAME AREA LATER TODAY. ALSO
WINDS INCREASED TO NEAR SCA AT A FEW LOCATIONS MONDAY EVENING AND
MODELS INDICATE STRONGER WINDS THIS EVENING AS COMPARED WITH
MONDAY EVENING. WILL EVALUATE FOR THE RIVERS BUT AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT LATEST DATA TRENDS AND THE LACK OF FETCH WITH A SOUTH
WIND ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF SCA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID ATLC COAST
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACRS ONTARIO CANADA.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL...WITH SOME MINOR DIRECTION CHANGES
ON A DIURNAL BASIS (SSE MIDDAY THROUGH EVENING TO SSW OVERNIGHT
THROUGH THE MORNING). PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY AND WED IS TIGHT
ENOUGH THAT WINDS SHOULD AVG 10 TO 15 KT...WITH SOME INCREASE IN
THE LATE AFTN/EVENING RESULTING IN GUSTS TO 20 KT. OVERALL STILL
FEEL THIS IS TOO MARGINAL TO RAISE ANY SCA HEADLINES ACRS THE
BAY/RIVERS/SOUND BUT BOATING CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE IDEAL AND
WAVES IN THE BAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AT 2-3 FT WITH COASTAL
SEAS BUILDING TO 3-4 FT. GRADIENT WEAKENS A BIT ON THU...AND WINDS
SHOULD BE A FEW KT LESS OVERALL. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN SOUTHERLY
FOR THE MOST PART INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB/MAS/LSA




000
FXUS61 KLWX 261355
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
955 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING WARM HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TEMPS ARE RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S THIS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTS OFF THE EAST COAST. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE TODAY WITH DEWPTS RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT KEPT US DRY AND WARM THIS PAST WEEKEND HAS
NOW MOVED FURTHER OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS SUBSIDENCE LEAVES THE AREA.
SHOWERS ARE MOVING SW-NE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DUE TO WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPS HAVE BEEN TWEAKED DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES DUE TO A
BKN/OVC DECK OF HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THAT WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FOR MOST AREAS SINCE THERE WILL NOT BE A
STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM. HOWEVER...THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ALONG
WITH LOWER HEIGHTS BEHIND THE DEPARTING RIDGE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
COMBINE WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95
AND FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. LOWER HEIGHTS
AND MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE OVER THESE AREAS. LATEST
GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS A THETA E RIDGE SETTING UP FOR LOCATIONS JUST
NORTH AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95. SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY WEAK AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MARGINAL DUE TO HIGH AND
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. THEREFORE...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...CAUSING WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS
OF MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWEST FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SETUP IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. IN FACT...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME. THIS SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE A BIT
MORE...ALLOWING FOR LOWER HEIGHTS OVER OUR AREA.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THANKS TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW
AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC. A BKN/OVC DECK OF HIGH
AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ALONG
WITH MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL LEAD TO
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD
COMPARED TO TUESDAY DUE TO LOWER HEIGHTS. SHEAR PROFILES MAY BE A
BIT STRONGER...BUT STILL RELATIVELY WEAK. HOWEVER...LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE A MAX IN
INSTABILITY NEAR AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS INTO NORTH-
CENTRAL MARYLAND. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. MID
AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO BE THICKER TO THE WEST WITH
MORE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE FURTHER EAST ACROSS THESE AREAS. SHOULD
THIS DEVELOP...THEN INSTABILITY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE HIGH WHICH
WOULD INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AS OF
NOW...CERTAINTY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST BUT THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

MOST CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY...BUT IT
WILL REMAIN WARM AND QUITE HUMID THANKS TO THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC LOW IN SE CANADA WILL DRAG AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
LATE THURS INTO FRI MORNING...EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING BY SAT
MORNING AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING THE FLOW ALOFT IS
PUSHED OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST AS THE RIDGE TAKES CONTROL YET
AGAIN OF THE EASTERN US. MAINTAINING UPPER END CHC POPS THRU THESE
TWO DAYS TO ACCOUNT FOR TSTM POTENTIAL...SFC HIGH SITTING OFFSHORE
WILL KEEP WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE
REGION...RESULTING IN DECENT INSTABILITY VALUES. SHEAR ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE...AND AS SUCH THINK ANY SVR THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL.
WHILE CONFIDENCE EXISTS THAT TSTMS WILL DEVELOP...ESP DURING THE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS...TRYING TO PINPOINT LOCATION AND TIMING STILL
TOO EARLY SO WILL KEEP SCT WORDING FOR NOW. HAVE ONLY ISO SHOWERS
IN THURS/FRI NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES SAT...NEARING THE WESTERN AREAS BY
LATE SAT. COULD SEE SHOWERS/TSTMS POP UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE
WARM/MOIST ATMO...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING REALLY ORGANIZED AT
THIS TIME. THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY AS WELL NEAR THE
MASON-DIXON WITH THE LOSS YET AGAIN OF ANY UPPER LVL FLOW. MODEL
DIVERGENCE IN THE 00Z SOLUTIONS WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS
FRONT...WITH THE GFS DEVELOPING A MORE DEFINED SFC LOW ALONG THE
FRONT AND TRACKING IT INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY. AS SUCH WILL KEEP
CHC POPS IN...THOUGH WITH THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS HINTING AT THE
FRONT STALLING IN THE VICINITY...IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY WE WILL
SEE PCPN OCCURRING SUN-MON WITH THIS BOUNDARY.

TEMPS ABV NORMAL THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH 850MB TEMPS
HOVERING BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES CELSIUS. DESPITE THE WARMER
TEMPS..EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED SPOTS TO REACH 90 DUE TO ON GOING
PCPN/CLOUD COVER. LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD IN THE 60S AND 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME THROUGH THIS EVENING.
A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED DUE TO A LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING
MECHANISM SO MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. HOWEVER...BRIEF SUBVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT MOVES OVER A TERMINAL.

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. COVERAGE MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD DUE TO LOWER
HEIGHTS BEHIND A DEPARTING RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

VARYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR OR LOWER PSBL WITH ANY SHOWER/TSTM. ANY TSTM COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS...WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS OUTSIDE OF PCPN
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND AND
THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY
SOUTH OF SANDY POINT AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE GRADIENT WIND TODAY FOR
THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC AND NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL APPROACH SCA CRITERIA...BUT THE FORECAST HAS WINDS
CAPPED AT 15 KNOTS FOR NOW DUE TO A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT
COMPARED TO MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE
TODAY SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. THERE MAY BE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO
LOWER HEIGHTS BEHIND A DEPARTING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT CAN BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBYS BELOW ONE MILE AT
TIMES.

EXPECTING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THURS AND FRI FOR MOST OF THE ZONES
WITH WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. MID CHESAPEAKE BAY COULD SEE
GUSTS TO 20 KTS EACH AFTN THRU FRI DUE TO SOUTHERN CHANNELING.

A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT YET AGAIN WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON
SAT WILL INCREASE WINDS...WITH PSBL SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS SAT-
SAT NIGHT.

OUTSIDE OF THE SYNOPTIC FLOW...EACH DAY WILL BRING A CHC FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS...WHICH COULD ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ531-538-
     539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-
     537-540>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...BJL/SEARS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 261355
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
955 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING WARM HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TEMPS ARE RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S THIS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTS OFF THE EAST COAST. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE TODAY WITH DEWPTS RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT KEPT US DRY AND WARM THIS PAST WEEKEND HAS
NOW MOVED FURTHER OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS SUBSIDENCE LEAVES THE AREA.
SHOWERS ARE MOVING SW-NE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DUE TO WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPS HAVE BEEN TWEAKED DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES DUE TO A
BKN/OVC DECK OF HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THAT WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FOR MOST AREAS SINCE THERE WILL NOT BE A
STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM. HOWEVER...THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ALONG
WITH LOWER HEIGHTS BEHIND THE DEPARTING RIDGE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
COMBINE WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95
AND FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. LOWER HEIGHTS
AND MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE OVER THESE AREAS. LATEST
GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS A THETA E RIDGE SETTING UP FOR LOCATIONS JUST
NORTH AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95. SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY WEAK AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MARGINAL DUE TO HIGH AND
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. THEREFORE...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...CAUSING WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS
OF MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWEST FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SETUP IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. IN FACT...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME. THIS SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE A BIT
MORE...ALLOWING FOR LOWER HEIGHTS OVER OUR AREA.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THANKS TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW
AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC. A BKN/OVC DECK OF HIGH
AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ALONG
WITH MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL LEAD TO
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD
COMPARED TO TUESDAY DUE TO LOWER HEIGHTS. SHEAR PROFILES MAY BE A
BIT STRONGER...BUT STILL RELATIVELY WEAK. HOWEVER...LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE A MAX IN
INSTABILITY NEAR AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS INTO NORTH-
CENTRAL MARYLAND. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. MID
AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO BE THICKER TO THE WEST WITH
MORE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE FURTHER EAST ACROSS THESE AREAS. SHOULD
THIS DEVELOP...THEN INSTABILITY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE HIGH WHICH
WOULD INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AS OF
NOW...CERTAINTY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST BUT THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

MOST CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY...BUT IT
WILL REMAIN WARM AND QUITE HUMID THANKS TO THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC LOW IN SE CANADA WILL DRAG AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
LATE THURS INTO FRI MORNING...EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING BY SAT
MORNING AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING THE FLOW ALOFT IS
PUSHED OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST AS THE RIDGE TAKES CONTROL YET
AGAIN OF THE EASTERN US. MAINTAINING UPPER END CHC POPS THRU THESE
TWO DAYS TO ACCOUNT FOR TSTM POTENTIAL...SFC HIGH SITTING OFFSHORE
WILL KEEP WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE
REGION...RESULTING IN DECENT INSTABILITY VALUES. SHEAR ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE...AND AS SUCH THINK ANY SVR THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL.
WHILE CONFIDENCE EXISTS THAT TSTMS WILL DEVELOP...ESP DURING THE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS...TRYING TO PINPOINT LOCATION AND TIMING STILL
TOO EARLY SO WILL KEEP SCT WORDING FOR NOW. HAVE ONLY ISO SHOWERS
IN THURS/FRI NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES SAT...NEARING THE WESTERN AREAS BY
LATE SAT. COULD SEE SHOWERS/TSTMS POP UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE
WARM/MOIST ATMO...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING REALLY ORGANIZED AT
THIS TIME. THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY AS WELL NEAR THE
MASON-DIXON WITH THE LOSS YET AGAIN OF ANY UPPER LVL FLOW. MODEL
DIVERGENCE IN THE 00Z SOLUTIONS WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS
FRONT...WITH THE GFS DEVELOPING A MORE DEFINED SFC LOW ALONG THE
FRONT AND TRACKING IT INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY. AS SUCH WILL KEEP
CHC POPS IN...THOUGH WITH THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS HINTING AT THE
FRONT STALLING IN THE VICINITY...IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY WE WILL
SEE PCPN OCCURRING SUN-MON WITH THIS BOUNDARY.

TEMPS ABV NORMAL THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH 850MB TEMPS
HOVERING BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES CELSIUS. DESPITE THE WARMER
TEMPS..EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED SPOTS TO REACH 90 DUE TO ON GOING
PCPN/CLOUD COVER. LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD IN THE 60S AND 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME THROUGH THIS EVENING.
A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED DUE TO A LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING
MECHANISM SO MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. HOWEVER...BRIEF SUBVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT MOVES OVER A TERMINAL.

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. COVERAGE MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD DUE TO LOWER
HEIGHTS BEHIND A DEPARTING RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

VARYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR OR LOWER PSBL WITH ANY SHOWER/TSTM. ANY TSTM COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS...WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS OUTSIDE OF PCPN
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND AND
THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY
SOUTH OF SANDY POINT AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE GRADIENT WIND TODAY FOR
THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC AND NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL APPROACH SCA CRITERIA...BUT THE FORECAST HAS WINDS
CAPPED AT 15 KNOTS FOR NOW DUE TO A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT
COMPARED TO MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE
TODAY SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. THERE MAY BE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO
LOWER HEIGHTS BEHIND A DEPARTING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT CAN BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBYS BELOW ONE MILE AT
TIMES.

EXPECTING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THURS AND FRI FOR MOST OF THE ZONES
WITH WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. MID CHESAPEAKE BAY COULD SEE
GUSTS TO 20 KTS EACH AFTN THRU FRI DUE TO SOUTHERN CHANNELING.

A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT YET AGAIN WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON
SAT WILL INCREASE WINDS...WITH PSBL SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS SAT-
SAT NIGHT.

OUTSIDE OF THE SYNOPTIC FLOW...EACH DAY WILL BRING A CHC FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS...WHICH COULD ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ531-538-
     539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-
     537-540>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...BJL/SEARS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 261355
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
955 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING WARM HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TEMPS ARE RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S THIS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTS OFF THE EAST COAST. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE TODAY WITH DEWPTS RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT KEPT US DRY AND WARM THIS PAST WEEKEND HAS
NOW MOVED FURTHER OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS SUBSIDENCE LEAVES THE AREA.
SHOWERS ARE MOVING SW-NE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DUE TO WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPS HAVE BEEN TWEAKED DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES DUE TO A
BKN/OVC DECK OF HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THAT WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FOR MOST AREAS SINCE THERE WILL NOT BE A
STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM. HOWEVER...THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ALONG
WITH LOWER HEIGHTS BEHIND THE DEPARTING RIDGE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
COMBINE WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95
AND FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. LOWER HEIGHTS
AND MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE OVER THESE AREAS. LATEST
GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS A THETA E RIDGE SETTING UP FOR LOCATIONS JUST
NORTH AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95. SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY WEAK AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MARGINAL DUE TO HIGH AND
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. THEREFORE...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...CAUSING WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS
OF MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWEST FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SETUP IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. IN FACT...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME. THIS SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE A BIT
MORE...ALLOWING FOR LOWER HEIGHTS OVER OUR AREA.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THANKS TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW
AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC. A BKN/OVC DECK OF HIGH
AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ALONG
WITH MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL LEAD TO
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD
COMPARED TO TUESDAY DUE TO LOWER HEIGHTS. SHEAR PROFILES MAY BE A
BIT STRONGER...BUT STILL RELATIVELY WEAK. HOWEVER...LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE A MAX IN
INSTABILITY NEAR AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS INTO NORTH-
CENTRAL MARYLAND. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. MID
AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO BE THICKER TO THE WEST WITH
MORE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE FURTHER EAST ACROSS THESE AREAS. SHOULD
THIS DEVELOP...THEN INSTABILITY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE HIGH WHICH
WOULD INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AS OF
NOW...CERTAINTY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST BUT THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

MOST CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY...BUT IT
WILL REMAIN WARM AND QUITE HUMID THANKS TO THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC LOW IN SE CANADA WILL DRAG AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
LATE THURS INTO FRI MORNING...EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING BY SAT
MORNING AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING THE FLOW ALOFT IS
PUSHED OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST AS THE RIDGE TAKES CONTROL YET
AGAIN OF THE EASTERN US. MAINTAINING UPPER END CHC POPS THRU THESE
TWO DAYS TO ACCOUNT FOR TSTM POTENTIAL...SFC HIGH SITTING OFFSHORE
WILL KEEP WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE
REGION...RESULTING IN DECENT INSTABILITY VALUES. SHEAR ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE...AND AS SUCH THINK ANY SVR THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL.
WHILE CONFIDENCE EXISTS THAT TSTMS WILL DEVELOP...ESP DURING THE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS...TRYING TO PINPOINT LOCATION AND TIMING STILL
TOO EARLY SO WILL KEEP SCT WORDING FOR NOW. HAVE ONLY ISO SHOWERS
IN THURS/FRI NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES SAT...NEARING THE WESTERN AREAS BY
LATE SAT. COULD SEE SHOWERS/TSTMS POP UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE
WARM/MOIST ATMO...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING REALLY ORGANIZED AT
THIS TIME. THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY AS WELL NEAR THE
MASON-DIXON WITH THE LOSS YET AGAIN OF ANY UPPER LVL FLOW. MODEL
DIVERGENCE IN THE 00Z SOLUTIONS WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS
FRONT...WITH THE GFS DEVELOPING A MORE DEFINED SFC LOW ALONG THE
FRONT AND TRACKING IT INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY. AS SUCH WILL KEEP
CHC POPS IN...THOUGH WITH THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS HINTING AT THE
FRONT STALLING IN THE VICINITY...IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY WE WILL
SEE PCPN OCCURRING SUN-MON WITH THIS BOUNDARY.

TEMPS ABV NORMAL THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH 850MB TEMPS
HOVERING BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES CELSIUS. DESPITE THE WARMER
TEMPS..EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED SPOTS TO REACH 90 DUE TO ON GOING
PCPN/CLOUD COVER. LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD IN THE 60S AND 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME THROUGH THIS EVENING.
A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED DUE TO A LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING
MECHANISM SO MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. HOWEVER...BRIEF SUBVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT MOVES OVER A TERMINAL.

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. COVERAGE MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD DUE TO LOWER
HEIGHTS BEHIND A DEPARTING RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

VARYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR OR LOWER PSBL WITH ANY SHOWER/TSTM. ANY TSTM COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS...WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS OUTSIDE OF PCPN
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND AND
THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY
SOUTH OF SANDY POINT AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE GRADIENT WIND TODAY FOR
THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC AND NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL APPROACH SCA CRITERIA...BUT THE FORECAST HAS WINDS
CAPPED AT 15 KNOTS FOR NOW DUE TO A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT
COMPARED TO MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE
TODAY SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. THERE MAY BE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO
LOWER HEIGHTS BEHIND A DEPARTING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT CAN BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBYS BELOW ONE MILE AT
TIMES.

EXPECTING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THURS AND FRI FOR MOST OF THE ZONES
WITH WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. MID CHESAPEAKE BAY COULD SEE
GUSTS TO 20 KTS EACH AFTN THRU FRI DUE TO SOUTHERN CHANNELING.

A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT YET AGAIN WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON
SAT WILL INCREASE WINDS...WITH PSBL SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS SAT-
SAT NIGHT.

OUTSIDE OF THE SYNOPTIC FLOW...EACH DAY WILL BRING A CHC FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS...WHICH COULD ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ531-538-
     539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-
     537-540>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...BJL/SEARS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 261355
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
955 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING WARM HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TEMPS ARE RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S THIS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTS OFF THE EAST COAST. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE TODAY WITH DEWPTS RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT KEPT US DRY AND WARM THIS PAST WEEKEND HAS
NOW MOVED FURTHER OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS SUBSIDENCE LEAVES THE AREA.
SHOWERS ARE MOVING SW-NE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DUE TO WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPS HAVE BEEN TWEAKED DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES DUE TO A
BKN/OVC DECK OF HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THAT WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FOR MOST AREAS SINCE THERE WILL NOT BE A
STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM. HOWEVER...THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ALONG
WITH LOWER HEIGHTS BEHIND THE DEPARTING RIDGE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
COMBINE WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95
AND FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. LOWER HEIGHTS
AND MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE OVER THESE AREAS. LATEST
GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS A THETA E RIDGE SETTING UP FOR LOCATIONS JUST
NORTH AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95. SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY WEAK AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MARGINAL DUE TO HIGH AND
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. THEREFORE...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...CAUSING WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS
OF MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWEST FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SETUP IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. IN FACT...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME. THIS SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE A BIT
MORE...ALLOWING FOR LOWER HEIGHTS OVER OUR AREA.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THANKS TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW
AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC. A BKN/OVC DECK OF HIGH
AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ALONG
WITH MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL LEAD TO
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD
COMPARED TO TUESDAY DUE TO LOWER HEIGHTS. SHEAR PROFILES MAY BE A
BIT STRONGER...BUT STILL RELATIVELY WEAK. HOWEVER...LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE A MAX IN
INSTABILITY NEAR AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS INTO NORTH-
CENTRAL MARYLAND. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. MID
AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO BE THICKER TO THE WEST WITH
MORE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE FURTHER EAST ACROSS THESE AREAS. SHOULD
THIS DEVELOP...THEN INSTABILITY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE HIGH WHICH
WOULD INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AS OF
NOW...CERTAINTY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST BUT THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

MOST CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY...BUT IT
WILL REMAIN WARM AND QUITE HUMID THANKS TO THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC LOW IN SE CANADA WILL DRAG AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
LATE THURS INTO FRI MORNING...EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING BY SAT
MORNING AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING THE FLOW ALOFT IS
PUSHED OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST AS THE RIDGE TAKES CONTROL YET
AGAIN OF THE EASTERN US. MAINTAINING UPPER END CHC POPS THRU THESE
TWO DAYS TO ACCOUNT FOR TSTM POTENTIAL...SFC HIGH SITTING OFFSHORE
WILL KEEP WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE
REGION...RESULTING IN DECENT INSTABILITY VALUES. SHEAR ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE...AND AS SUCH THINK ANY SVR THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL.
WHILE CONFIDENCE EXISTS THAT TSTMS WILL DEVELOP...ESP DURING THE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS...TRYING TO PINPOINT LOCATION AND TIMING STILL
TOO EARLY SO WILL KEEP SCT WORDING FOR NOW. HAVE ONLY ISO SHOWERS
IN THURS/FRI NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES SAT...NEARING THE WESTERN AREAS BY
LATE SAT. COULD SEE SHOWERS/TSTMS POP UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE
WARM/MOIST ATMO...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING REALLY ORGANIZED AT
THIS TIME. THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY AS WELL NEAR THE
MASON-DIXON WITH THE LOSS YET AGAIN OF ANY UPPER LVL FLOW. MODEL
DIVERGENCE IN THE 00Z SOLUTIONS WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS
FRONT...WITH THE GFS DEVELOPING A MORE DEFINED SFC LOW ALONG THE
FRONT AND TRACKING IT INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY. AS SUCH WILL KEEP
CHC POPS IN...THOUGH WITH THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS HINTING AT THE
FRONT STALLING IN THE VICINITY...IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY WE WILL
SEE PCPN OCCURRING SUN-MON WITH THIS BOUNDARY.

TEMPS ABV NORMAL THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH 850MB TEMPS
HOVERING BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES CELSIUS. DESPITE THE WARMER
TEMPS..EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED SPOTS TO REACH 90 DUE TO ON GOING
PCPN/CLOUD COVER. LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD IN THE 60S AND 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME THROUGH THIS EVENING.
A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED DUE TO A LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING
MECHANISM SO MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. HOWEVER...BRIEF SUBVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT MOVES OVER A TERMINAL.

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. COVERAGE MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD DUE TO LOWER
HEIGHTS BEHIND A DEPARTING RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

VARYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR OR LOWER PSBL WITH ANY SHOWER/TSTM. ANY TSTM COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS...WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS OUTSIDE OF PCPN
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND AND
THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY
SOUTH OF SANDY POINT AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE GRADIENT WIND TODAY FOR
THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC AND NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL APPROACH SCA CRITERIA...BUT THE FORECAST HAS WINDS
CAPPED AT 15 KNOTS FOR NOW DUE TO A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT
COMPARED TO MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE
TODAY SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. THERE MAY BE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO
LOWER HEIGHTS BEHIND A DEPARTING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT CAN BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBYS BELOW ONE MILE AT
TIMES.

EXPECTING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THURS AND FRI FOR MOST OF THE ZONES
WITH WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. MID CHESAPEAKE BAY COULD SEE
GUSTS TO 20 KTS EACH AFTN THRU FRI DUE TO SOUTHERN CHANNELING.

A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT YET AGAIN WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON
SAT WILL INCREASE WINDS...WITH PSBL SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS SAT-
SAT NIGHT.

OUTSIDE OF THE SYNOPTIC FLOW...EACH DAY WILL BRING A CHC FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS...WHICH COULD ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ531-538-
     539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-
     537-540>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...BJL/SEARS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 261355
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
955 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING WARM HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TEMPS ARE RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S THIS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTS OFF THE EAST COAST. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE TODAY WITH DEWPTS RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT KEPT US DRY AND WARM THIS PAST WEEKEND HAS
NOW MOVED FURTHER OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS SUBSIDENCE LEAVES THE AREA.
SHOWERS ARE MOVING SW-NE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DUE TO WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPS HAVE BEEN TWEAKED DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES DUE TO A
BKN/OVC DECK OF HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THAT WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FOR MOST AREAS SINCE THERE WILL NOT BE A
STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM. HOWEVER...THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ALONG
WITH LOWER HEIGHTS BEHIND THE DEPARTING RIDGE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
COMBINE WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95
AND FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. LOWER HEIGHTS
AND MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE OVER THESE AREAS. LATEST
GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS A THETA E RIDGE SETTING UP FOR LOCATIONS JUST
NORTH AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95. SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY WEAK AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MARGINAL DUE TO HIGH AND
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. THEREFORE...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...CAUSING WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS
OF MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWEST FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SETUP IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. IN FACT...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME. THIS SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE A BIT
MORE...ALLOWING FOR LOWER HEIGHTS OVER OUR AREA.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THANKS TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW
AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC. A BKN/OVC DECK OF HIGH
AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ALONG
WITH MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL LEAD TO
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD
COMPARED TO TUESDAY DUE TO LOWER HEIGHTS. SHEAR PROFILES MAY BE A
BIT STRONGER...BUT STILL RELATIVELY WEAK. HOWEVER...LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE A MAX IN
INSTABILITY NEAR AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS INTO NORTH-
CENTRAL MARYLAND. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. MID
AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO BE THICKER TO THE WEST WITH
MORE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE FURTHER EAST ACROSS THESE AREAS. SHOULD
THIS DEVELOP...THEN INSTABILITY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE HIGH WHICH
WOULD INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AS OF
NOW...CERTAINTY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST BUT THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

MOST CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY...BUT IT
WILL REMAIN WARM AND QUITE HUMID THANKS TO THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC LOW IN SE CANADA WILL DRAG AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
LATE THURS INTO FRI MORNING...EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING BY SAT
MORNING AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING THE FLOW ALOFT IS
PUSHED OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST AS THE RIDGE TAKES CONTROL YET
AGAIN OF THE EASTERN US. MAINTAINING UPPER END CHC POPS THRU THESE
TWO DAYS TO ACCOUNT FOR TSTM POTENTIAL...SFC HIGH SITTING OFFSHORE
WILL KEEP WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE
REGION...RESULTING IN DECENT INSTABILITY VALUES. SHEAR ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE...AND AS SUCH THINK ANY SVR THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL.
WHILE CONFIDENCE EXISTS THAT TSTMS WILL DEVELOP...ESP DURING THE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS...TRYING TO PINPOINT LOCATION AND TIMING STILL
TOO EARLY SO WILL KEEP SCT WORDING FOR NOW. HAVE ONLY ISO SHOWERS
IN THURS/FRI NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES SAT...NEARING THE WESTERN AREAS BY
LATE SAT. COULD SEE SHOWERS/TSTMS POP UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE
WARM/MOIST ATMO...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING REALLY ORGANIZED AT
THIS TIME. THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY AS WELL NEAR THE
MASON-DIXON WITH THE LOSS YET AGAIN OF ANY UPPER LVL FLOW. MODEL
DIVERGENCE IN THE 00Z SOLUTIONS WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS
FRONT...WITH THE GFS DEVELOPING A MORE DEFINED SFC LOW ALONG THE
FRONT AND TRACKING IT INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY. AS SUCH WILL KEEP
CHC POPS IN...THOUGH WITH THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS HINTING AT THE
FRONT STALLING IN THE VICINITY...IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY WE WILL
SEE PCPN OCCURRING SUN-MON WITH THIS BOUNDARY.

TEMPS ABV NORMAL THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH 850MB TEMPS
HOVERING BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES CELSIUS. DESPITE THE WARMER
TEMPS..EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED SPOTS TO REACH 90 DUE TO ON GOING
PCPN/CLOUD COVER. LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD IN THE 60S AND 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME THROUGH THIS EVENING.
A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED DUE TO A LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING
MECHANISM SO MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. HOWEVER...BRIEF SUBVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT MOVES OVER A TERMINAL.

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. COVERAGE MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD DUE TO LOWER
HEIGHTS BEHIND A DEPARTING RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

VARYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR OR LOWER PSBL WITH ANY SHOWER/TSTM. ANY TSTM COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS...WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS OUTSIDE OF PCPN
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND AND
THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY
SOUTH OF SANDY POINT AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE GRADIENT WIND TODAY FOR
THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC AND NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL APPROACH SCA CRITERIA...BUT THE FORECAST HAS WINDS
CAPPED AT 15 KNOTS FOR NOW DUE TO A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT
COMPARED TO MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE
TODAY SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. THERE MAY BE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO
LOWER HEIGHTS BEHIND A DEPARTING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT CAN BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBYS BELOW ONE MILE AT
TIMES.

EXPECTING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THURS AND FRI FOR MOST OF THE ZONES
WITH WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. MID CHESAPEAKE BAY COULD SEE
GUSTS TO 20 KTS EACH AFTN THRU FRI DUE TO SOUTHERN CHANNELING.

A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT YET AGAIN WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON
SAT WILL INCREASE WINDS...WITH PSBL SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS SAT-
SAT NIGHT.

OUTSIDE OF THE SYNOPTIC FLOW...EACH DAY WILL BRING A CHC FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS...WHICH COULD ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ531-538-
     539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-
     537-540>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...BJL/SEARS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 261355
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
955 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING WARM HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TEMPS ARE RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S THIS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTS OFF THE EAST COAST. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE TODAY WITH DEWPTS RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT KEPT US DRY AND WARM THIS PAST WEEKEND HAS
NOW MOVED FURTHER OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS SUBSIDENCE LEAVES THE AREA.
SHOWERS ARE MOVING SW-NE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DUE TO WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPS HAVE BEEN TWEAKED DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES DUE TO A
BKN/OVC DECK OF HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THAT WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FOR MOST AREAS SINCE THERE WILL NOT BE A
STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM. HOWEVER...THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ALONG
WITH LOWER HEIGHTS BEHIND THE DEPARTING RIDGE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
COMBINE WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95
AND FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. LOWER HEIGHTS
AND MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE OVER THESE AREAS. LATEST
GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS A THETA E RIDGE SETTING UP FOR LOCATIONS JUST
NORTH AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95. SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY WEAK AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MARGINAL DUE TO HIGH AND
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. THEREFORE...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...CAUSING WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS
OF MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWEST FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SETUP IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. IN FACT...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME. THIS SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE A BIT
MORE...ALLOWING FOR LOWER HEIGHTS OVER OUR AREA.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THANKS TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW
AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC. A BKN/OVC DECK OF HIGH
AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ALONG
WITH MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL LEAD TO
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD
COMPARED TO TUESDAY DUE TO LOWER HEIGHTS. SHEAR PROFILES MAY BE A
BIT STRONGER...BUT STILL RELATIVELY WEAK. HOWEVER...LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE A MAX IN
INSTABILITY NEAR AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS INTO NORTH-
CENTRAL MARYLAND. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. MID
AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO BE THICKER TO THE WEST WITH
MORE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE FURTHER EAST ACROSS THESE AREAS. SHOULD
THIS DEVELOP...THEN INSTABILITY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE HIGH WHICH
WOULD INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AS OF
NOW...CERTAINTY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST BUT THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

MOST CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY...BUT IT
WILL REMAIN WARM AND QUITE HUMID THANKS TO THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC LOW IN SE CANADA WILL DRAG AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
LATE THURS INTO FRI MORNING...EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING BY SAT
MORNING AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING THE FLOW ALOFT IS
PUSHED OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST AS THE RIDGE TAKES CONTROL YET
AGAIN OF THE EASTERN US. MAINTAINING UPPER END CHC POPS THRU THESE
TWO DAYS TO ACCOUNT FOR TSTM POTENTIAL...SFC HIGH SITTING OFFSHORE
WILL KEEP WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE
REGION...RESULTING IN DECENT INSTABILITY VALUES. SHEAR ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE...AND AS SUCH THINK ANY SVR THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL.
WHILE CONFIDENCE EXISTS THAT TSTMS WILL DEVELOP...ESP DURING THE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS...TRYING TO PINPOINT LOCATION AND TIMING STILL
TOO EARLY SO WILL KEEP SCT WORDING FOR NOW. HAVE ONLY ISO SHOWERS
IN THURS/FRI NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES SAT...NEARING THE WESTERN AREAS BY
LATE SAT. COULD SEE SHOWERS/TSTMS POP UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE
WARM/MOIST ATMO...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING REALLY ORGANIZED AT
THIS TIME. THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY AS WELL NEAR THE
MASON-DIXON WITH THE LOSS YET AGAIN OF ANY UPPER LVL FLOW. MODEL
DIVERGENCE IN THE 00Z SOLUTIONS WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS
FRONT...WITH THE GFS DEVELOPING A MORE DEFINED SFC LOW ALONG THE
FRONT AND TRACKING IT INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY. AS SUCH WILL KEEP
CHC POPS IN...THOUGH WITH THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS HINTING AT THE
FRONT STALLING IN THE VICINITY...IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY WE WILL
SEE PCPN OCCURRING SUN-MON WITH THIS BOUNDARY.

TEMPS ABV NORMAL THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH 850MB TEMPS
HOVERING BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES CELSIUS. DESPITE THE WARMER
TEMPS..EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED SPOTS TO REACH 90 DUE TO ON GOING
PCPN/CLOUD COVER. LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD IN THE 60S AND 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME THROUGH THIS EVENING.
A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED DUE TO A LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING
MECHANISM SO MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. HOWEVER...BRIEF SUBVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT MOVES OVER A TERMINAL.

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. COVERAGE MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD DUE TO LOWER
HEIGHTS BEHIND A DEPARTING RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

VARYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR OR LOWER PSBL WITH ANY SHOWER/TSTM. ANY TSTM COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS...WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS OUTSIDE OF PCPN
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND AND
THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY
SOUTH OF SANDY POINT AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE GRADIENT WIND TODAY FOR
THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC AND NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL APPROACH SCA CRITERIA...BUT THE FORECAST HAS WINDS
CAPPED AT 15 KNOTS FOR NOW DUE TO A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT
COMPARED TO MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE
TODAY SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. THERE MAY BE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO
LOWER HEIGHTS BEHIND A DEPARTING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT CAN BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBYS BELOW ONE MILE AT
TIMES.

EXPECTING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THURS AND FRI FOR MOST OF THE ZONES
WITH WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. MID CHESAPEAKE BAY COULD SEE
GUSTS TO 20 KTS EACH AFTN THRU FRI DUE TO SOUTHERN CHANNELING.

A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT YET AGAIN WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON
SAT WILL INCREASE WINDS...WITH PSBL SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS SAT-
SAT NIGHT.

OUTSIDE OF THE SYNOPTIC FLOW...EACH DAY WILL BRING A CHC FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS...WHICH COULD ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ531-538-
     539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-
     537-540>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...BJL/SEARS



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 261254
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
854 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WARM
TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE ADVANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT INSTABILITY
WHILE DEEP MOISTURE WILL LIMIT THE EVAPORATIVE COOLING
POTENTIAL...HENCE ACCELERATING DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL. DESPITE
INCREASED FLOW ALOFT...DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROJECTIONS ARE
MARGINAL...AND WITH NAM SURFACE DEWPOINTS AS USUAL OVERDONE...THE
SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST TODAY.

TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY TWEAKED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY TODAY TO GET
MORE IN LINE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND SHIFT EASTWARD. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER
THE REGION ALLOWED BY SOUTHWEST FLOW. THEREFORE...CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS WERE MAINTAINED AND ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE.

A LULL IN PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
AS BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UNDER A WEAK RIDGE IN THE WAKE OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES RISE AGAIN ON SATURDAY SUPPORTED BY AN
APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY AND A WEAK SPLIT FLOW ALOFT. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SAG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
AS PREDICTED BY ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS.

FORECASTED TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VARIOUS LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS AGREE ON STUBBORN BOUNDARY LAID
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE CHANCE
POPS WERE PRESERVED WITH THE SUPPORT OF A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER
OVER THE OUTCOME OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST IN
TERMS OF MAGNITUDE...POSITION...AND TIMING. THEREFORE PERSISTENCE
WAS HEAVILY USED IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AND LOW CHANCE
POPS WERE INTRODUCED.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH ONLY LOCAL
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. RESTRICTION POTENTIAL...MAINLY MVFR...IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TONIGHT WITH A SATURATING BOUNDARY LAYER AND CROSSING
SHORTWAVE SUPPORTING SOME SHOWERS.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 261254
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
854 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WARM
TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE ADVANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT INSTABILITY
WHILE DEEP MOISTURE WILL LIMIT THE EVAPORATIVE COOLING
POTENTIAL...HENCE ACCELERATING DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL. DESPITE
INCREASED FLOW ALOFT...DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROJECTIONS ARE
MARGINAL...AND WITH NAM SURFACE DEWPOINTS AS USUAL OVERDONE...THE
SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST TODAY.

TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY TWEAKED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY TODAY TO GET
MORE IN LINE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND SHIFT EASTWARD. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER
THE REGION ALLOWED BY SOUTHWEST FLOW. THEREFORE...CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS WERE MAINTAINED AND ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE.

A LULL IN PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
AS BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UNDER A WEAK RIDGE IN THE WAKE OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES RISE AGAIN ON SATURDAY SUPPORTED BY AN
APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY AND A WEAK SPLIT FLOW ALOFT. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SAG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
AS PREDICTED BY ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS.

FORECASTED TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VARIOUS LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS AGREE ON STUBBORN BOUNDARY LAID
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE CHANCE
POPS WERE PRESERVED WITH THE SUPPORT OF A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER
OVER THE OUTCOME OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST IN
TERMS OF MAGNITUDE...POSITION...AND TIMING. THEREFORE PERSISTENCE
WAS HEAVILY USED IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AND LOW CHANCE
POPS WERE INTRODUCED.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH ONLY LOCAL
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. RESTRICTION POTENTIAL...MAINLY MVFR...IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TONIGHT WITH A SATURATING BOUNDARY LAYER AND CROSSING
SHORTWAVE SUPPORTING SOME SHOWERS.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 261254
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
854 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WARM
TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE ADVANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT INSTABILITY
WHILE DEEP MOISTURE WILL LIMIT THE EVAPORATIVE COOLING
POTENTIAL...HENCE ACCELERATING DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL. DESPITE
INCREASED FLOW ALOFT...DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROJECTIONS ARE
MARGINAL...AND WITH NAM SURFACE DEWPOINTS AS USUAL OVERDONE...THE
SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST TODAY.

TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY TWEAKED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY TODAY TO GET
MORE IN LINE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND SHIFT EASTWARD. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER
THE REGION ALLOWED BY SOUTHWEST FLOW. THEREFORE...CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS WERE MAINTAINED AND ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE.

A LULL IN PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
AS BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UNDER A WEAK RIDGE IN THE WAKE OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES RISE AGAIN ON SATURDAY SUPPORTED BY AN
APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY AND A WEAK SPLIT FLOW ALOFT. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SAG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
AS PREDICTED BY ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS.

FORECASTED TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VARIOUS LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS AGREE ON STUBBORN BOUNDARY LAID
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE CHANCE
POPS WERE PRESERVED WITH THE SUPPORT OF A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER
OVER THE OUTCOME OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST IN
TERMS OF MAGNITUDE...POSITION...AND TIMING. THEREFORE PERSISTENCE
WAS HEAVILY USED IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AND LOW CHANCE
POPS WERE INTRODUCED.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH ONLY LOCAL
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. RESTRICTION POTENTIAL...MAINLY MVFR...IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TONIGHT WITH A SATURATING BOUNDARY LAYER AND CROSSING
SHORTWAVE SUPPORTING SOME SHOWERS.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 261254
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
854 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WARM
TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE ADVANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT INSTABILITY
WHILE DEEP MOISTURE WILL LIMIT THE EVAPORATIVE COOLING
POTENTIAL...HENCE ACCELERATING DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL. DESPITE
INCREASED FLOW ALOFT...DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROJECTIONS ARE
MARGINAL...AND WITH NAM SURFACE DEWPOINTS AS USUAL OVERDONE...THE
SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST TODAY.

TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY TWEAKED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY TODAY TO GET
MORE IN LINE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND SHIFT EASTWARD. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER
THE REGION ALLOWED BY SOUTHWEST FLOW. THEREFORE...CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS WERE MAINTAINED AND ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE.

A LULL IN PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
AS BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UNDER A WEAK RIDGE IN THE WAKE OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES RISE AGAIN ON SATURDAY SUPPORTED BY AN
APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY AND A WEAK SPLIT FLOW ALOFT. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SAG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
AS PREDICTED BY ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS.

FORECASTED TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VARIOUS LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS AGREE ON STUBBORN BOUNDARY LAID
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE CHANCE
POPS WERE PRESERVED WITH THE SUPPORT OF A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER
OVER THE OUTCOME OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST IN
TERMS OF MAGNITUDE...POSITION...AND TIMING. THEREFORE PERSISTENCE
WAS HEAVILY USED IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AND LOW CHANCE
POPS WERE INTRODUCED.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH ONLY LOCAL
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. RESTRICTION POTENTIAL...MAINLY MVFR...IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TONIGHT WITH A SATURATING BOUNDARY LAYER AND CROSSING
SHORTWAVE SUPPORTING SOME SHOWERS.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPHI 261250
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
850 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST WEDNESDAY AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT TRIES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND STALL IN OUR VICINITY ON
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
12Z SOUNDINGS CORROBORATE ONGOING FORECAST MAX TEMPS AS WELL AS
NOT MUCH CONVECTION POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES
GEOGRAPHICALLY FARTHER REMOVE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT DAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY TODAY OWING TO THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND
THE HIGH, IT WON`T BE ON PAR WITH A QUINTESSENTIAL MUGGY SUMMER DAY
IN THE MID ATLANTIC. OFFICIAL TEMP FORECAST FALLS ON THE WARMER
ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE AFTER TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE RECENT COOL BIAS
EXHIBITED BY THE MODELS. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY TO BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S WHICH IS GENERALLY ON PAR WITH YESTERDAY, IF NOT A DEGREE
OR TWO WARMER. DID NOT QUITE GO HIGH ENOUGH TO FORECAST THE FIRST 90
DEGREE DAY OF THE SEASON FOR PHILADELPHIA, BUT THE POSSIBILITY
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT JUST EAST OF THE EAST
COAST TODAY. THE LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE
WILL WEAKEN OVERHEAD A BIT, WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME POP UP SHOWERS
AND STORMS FORMING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE PA AND NW NJ. THE
WINDOW FOR CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WHEN
DIURNAL INSTABILITY PEAKS AND A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MOVES AROUND THE RIDGE AND
INTO EASTERN PA. MLCAPE PROFILES BELOW 1000 J/KG AND DEEP-LAYER BULK
SHEAR BELOW 25 KT ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSE/ORGANIZED STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE TONIGHT WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH. HOURLY POPS FOR TONIGHT EXHIBIT A SEMI-
DIURNAL TREND; DECREASING AFTER SUNSET DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER, ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY LAST INTO PART OF THE
NIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA.

AT THE VERY LEAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND KEEP TEMPS
WARMER THAN IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. FORECAST LOWS ARE GENERALLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL, BUT THERE MAY
BE PATCHY FOG THAT DEVELOPS TOWARD DAWN AT INLAND LOCATIONS THAT
RECEIVE ANY RAINFALL TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS EAST COAST RIDGING AS THE DOMINANT FORCE
THROUGH MOST OF THE LONGTERM PERIOD, WITH A RIPPLE OR TWO. BY THE
WEEKEND THE RIDGING BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN, MOVES OFF TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST, WHILE GREAT LAKES TROUGHING STARTS TO PUSH IN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

OVERALL THE LONGTERM REMAINS IN TACT FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT WITH
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON TIME
PERIOD...BETTER WEST THAN EAST WITH LEE TROUGHING POSSIBLE AND
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS.

WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. EXPECTING A THERMAL/LEE SIDE TROUGH TO DEVELOP TO OUR
IMMEDIATE WEST DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS AND SLOWLY MOVE IT TO
THE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. BETTER HEATING ALONG THE RIDGE
TOPS SHOULD BE THE PRIME FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHERE HIGHER SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES SETUP AND
SOMEWHAT BETTER 0-4KM SHEAR VALUES...AROUND 35 KNOTS. ONE ISSUE IS
STRICTLY TIED TO THE TIMING OF THE TROUGHS PASSAGE AS THE SHEAR
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NONE-THE-LESS
POP-UP/AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH BETTER ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND NORTH. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
STRONG, HIGH PWATS WILL ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
TEMPERATURES STILL RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH COULD END UP A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER IN
PLACE.

NOT EXPECTING TO HAVE ISSUES WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AS WE SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MIX OUT THE DEWPOINTS A BIT, THOUGH MUCH LESS THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS, AND KEEP VALUES SLIGHTLY STICKIER THAN PREDICTED AFTERNOON
MAXES.

THURSDAY - FRIDAY...COLD FRONT LOOKS TO STALL AND EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY. THE FORCING WITH THE FRONT
DECREASES WITH TIME BECOMING NIL BY FRIDAY. AGAIN, WITH A WARM
AIRMASS IN PLACE, THOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS, WE WILL
HAVE PLENTY OF DEWPOINT POOLING OCCURRING TO KEEP THE CHANCE POPS
BOTH DAYS...DIFFUSE FRONT WILL ACT AS A MOISTURE CONDUIT WITH
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN BEING THE BIGGER ISSUE COMPARED TO SEVERE
STORMS.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...WE WILL KEY ON SUNDAY VS SATURDAY AS THE
CONVECTIVELY MORE ACTIVE DAY GIVEN THE BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS AND
OVERALL TENDENCY FOR A SLOWER TIMING. POPS HIT A RELATIVE LOW ON
SATURDAY BEFORE RAMPING UP AGAIN ON SUNDAY. ALSO GIVEN THE SLOWER
FRONTAL TIMING, MAX TEMPS ARE MUCH CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE AND EC MOS
GUIDANCE THAN GFS MOS.

MONDAY...INITIAL LOOK AT MONDAY HAS THE FRONT STALLED JUST SOUTH OF
OUR CWA, THIS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY COOLER WITH STILL SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND. EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO KEEP
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE REGION WHICH MAY PRODUCE A MUCH NEEDED
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WITH SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS...JET INTERACTION AND PASSING SHORTWAVES.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PREDOMINATELY VFR TODAY AND THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS 5-10 KT
THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE. MAY SEE AN ISOLATED SHRA OR TSRA IN VC OF ABE/RDG BUT
COVERAGE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

MOST TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN AT VFR OVERNIGHT BUT PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP AT THE USUAL FOG-PRONE TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLE MORNING MVFR FOG. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS...BETTER CHANCES ACROSS RDG/ABE.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS FOLLOWED BY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING WAS CANCELLED AS WINDS ARE BELOW 20 KT AND SEAS 4 FT OR
LESS.

DEBATED ON WHETHER OR NOT TO ISSUE A SCA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FOR A PERIOD LATE IN THE DAY TODAY
AND WAVES WILL RESPOND ACCORDINGLY. OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY MARINE
HEADLINE SINCE THE WIND FIELD WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER THIS AFTERNOON
THAN YESTERDAY, SO NEAR-SHORE GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE BELOW 25 KT.
WINDS WILL BE STRONGER A FEW MILES OFFSHORE BUT MIXING WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER DUE TO THE COOLER WATERS. SEAS TONIGHT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE AROUND 4 FT IN THE COASTAL ATLANTIC.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
INPLACE. GUSTS MAY REACH 25 KNOTS WITH SEAS REACHING 5 FEET ON
THE OCEAN WATERS. STILL DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A SCA
ON THIS SHIFT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD BE BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS A WEAKER PRESSURE PATTERN SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOP 10 WARMEST MAY WILL OCCUR IN LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

THE FIRST 25 DAYS OF MAY IN OUR FORECAST AREA WERE AVERAGING
ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

RUNNING THE NUMBERS FROM THE FCST THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH WE
FIND THE FOLLOWING.

FOR PHILADELPHIA...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1874.
PROJECTING A MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 69 TO 70 RISING FROM
THE CURRENT VALUE OF 67.8, AT LEAST 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
HEADING FOR MOST LIKELY THE THIRD WARMEST MAY ON RECORD. WARMEST
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN MAY ON RECORD WAS 70.8 IN 1991. THEN 69.2
2004 AND 68.2 IN 2012.

FOR ALLENTOWN...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1922. THE MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IS CURRENTLY 63.9 DEGREES. IT IS LIKELY TO
INCREASE BY A DEGREE OR TWO LATER THIS WEEK, LEADING TO A TOP 10
WARMEST MAY THIS YEAR AT ALLENTOWN. THE WARMEST AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE IN MAY WAS 67.2 BACK IN 1991.

FOR WILMINGTON.... THE MONTH OF MAY IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE
TOP 5- 10 WARMEST. THE CURRENT MONTHLY TEMPERATURE IS 65.8 DEGREES
AND SHOULD RISE A DEGREE OR TWO BY MONTHS END. THE WARMEST MAY WAS
IN 1896 WHERE THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 70.1 DEGREES. IN 1991
THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 69.1 DEGREES.

FOR ATLANTIC CITY... THE MONTH IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE TOP
THREE WARMEST MAYS. CURRENTLY, THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE
MONTH IS 64.5 DEGREES AND IS LIKELY TO RISE A DEGREE TOR TWO BY
MONTHS END. THE WARMEST MAY WAS BACK IN 2004 WHERE THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE REACHED 66.9 DEGREES. IN 1991 THE MONTHLY AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE WAS 66 DEGREES. BOTH 2011 AND 2012 SAW A MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 65 DEGREES.

NORMAL FIRST DATE OF 90 OR HIGHER.

PHILADELPHIA MAY 29 ALLENTOWN MAY 30 WILMINGTON JUNE 4 ATLANTIC
CITY JUNE 11.

*************************************************************

HERE IS OUR ANNUAL LOOK AS TO HOW HOT, HOT, HOT THE SUMMER WILL
BE BASED ON PAST PERFORMANCES.

A FULL FLEDGED EL NINO IS UNDERWAY IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. ALL
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS KEEP IT GOING, THE DIFFERENCES
THAT EXIST ARE TO ITS STRENGTH THROUGH THIS UPCOMING SUMMER. THE
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS ARE AVERAGING A MODERATE EL NINO
FOR THE COMBINED SUMMER MONTHS. SOME MODELS, INCLUDING THE CFS2
AND ECMWF ARE PREDICTING A STRONG EL NINO. IN THE CPC MONITORING
EL NINO ERA STARTING SINCE 1950, THE HIGHEST (WARMEST) SUMMER
ANOMALY RECORDED WAS +1.5C (NEAR OR AT THE THRESHOLD FOR STRONG EL
NINOS) DURING THE SUMMER OF 1997.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL REALLY SEAL THE DEAL THAT THIS MAY WILL
BE UNSEASONABLY WARM IN PHILADELPHIA. IT "MAY" EVEN BE A TOP THREE
WARMEST. THIS FOLLOWS ON THE HEELS OF AN UNSEASONABLY WARM APRIL.
SINCE 1872, THE COMBINATION OF BOTH WARM (TOP THIRD OF ALL YEARS)
APRILS AND MAYS HAS ONLY OCCURRED TWENTY-THREE TIMES. BUT IT HAS
OCCURRED ELEVEN TIMES SINCE 1990 AND SIX OF THE LAST SEVEN
SPRINGS.

SO WE SCOURED THE CLIMATE RECORDS TO FIND BUDDING OR IN PROGRESS
EL NINOS THAT COINCIDED WITH BOTH WARM APRILS AND MAYS LOCALLY IN
THE CPC MONITORING ERA. WE FOUND THREE PAST SUMMERS THAT MET THE
CRITERIA. THE ONE SIGN IS THAT ALL THREE ANALOG SUMMERS WERE
WETTER THAN NORMAL, HOPEFULLY KEEPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS FROM
INTENSIFYING FURTHER.

THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE PREDICTIONS FOR THIS
UPCOMING SUMMER HAS WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER EXPECTED
IN OUR AREA. THE INTERNATIONAL MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE
SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC PREDICTING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION.

THE ANALOGS FOR PHILADELPHIA ARE:

YEAR    JUNE AVG   JULY AVG   AUGUST AVG   SUMMER AVG   SUMMER PCPN

1969      73.4        75.1      75.2         74.6        18.30
1977      68.6        77.8      76.2         74.2        15.50
1991      75.7        79.0      79.0         77.9        12.01
AVG       72.6        77.3      76.8         75.6        15.27

1981-
2010      73.3        78.1      76.6         76.0        11.28
NORMAL

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR OUR FORECAST AREA IS FOR EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/KLEIN
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...GIGI/HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLEIN
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLEIN
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 261250
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
850 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST WEDNESDAY AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT TRIES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND STALL IN OUR VICINITY ON
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
12Z SOUNDINGS CORROBORATE ONGOING FORECAST MAX TEMPS AS WELL AS
NOT MUCH CONVECTION POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES
GEOGRAPHICALLY FARTHER REMOVE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT DAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY TODAY OWING TO THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND
THE HIGH, IT WON`T BE ON PAR WITH A QUINTESSENTIAL MUGGY SUMMER DAY
IN THE MID ATLANTIC. OFFICIAL TEMP FORECAST FALLS ON THE WARMER
ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE AFTER TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE RECENT COOL BIAS
EXHIBITED BY THE MODELS. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY TO BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S WHICH IS GENERALLY ON PAR WITH YESTERDAY, IF NOT A DEGREE
OR TWO WARMER. DID NOT QUITE GO HIGH ENOUGH TO FORECAST THE FIRST 90
DEGREE DAY OF THE SEASON FOR PHILADELPHIA, BUT THE POSSIBILITY
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT JUST EAST OF THE EAST
COAST TODAY. THE LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE
WILL WEAKEN OVERHEAD A BIT, WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME POP UP SHOWERS
AND STORMS FORMING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE PA AND NW NJ. THE
WINDOW FOR CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WHEN
DIURNAL INSTABILITY PEAKS AND A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MOVES AROUND THE RIDGE AND
INTO EASTERN PA. MLCAPE PROFILES BELOW 1000 J/KG AND DEEP-LAYER BULK
SHEAR BELOW 25 KT ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSE/ORGANIZED STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE TONIGHT WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH. HOURLY POPS FOR TONIGHT EXHIBIT A SEMI-
DIURNAL TREND; DECREASING AFTER SUNSET DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER, ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY LAST INTO PART OF THE
NIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA.

AT THE VERY LEAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND KEEP TEMPS
WARMER THAN IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. FORECAST LOWS ARE GENERALLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL, BUT THERE MAY
BE PATCHY FOG THAT DEVELOPS TOWARD DAWN AT INLAND LOCATIONS THAT
RECEIVE ANY RAINFALL TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS EAST COAST RIDGING AS THE DOMINANT FORCE
THROUGH MOST OF THE LONGTERM PERIOD, WITH A RIPPLE OR TWO. BY THE
WEEKEND THE RIDGING BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN, MOVES OFF TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST, WHILE GREAT LAKES TROUGHING STARTS TO PUSH IN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

OVERALL THE LONGTERM REMAINS IN TACT FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT WITH
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON TIME
PERIOD...BETTER WEST THAN EAST WITH LEE TROUGHING POSSIBLE AND
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS.

WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. EXPECTING A THERMAL/LEE SIDE TROUGH TO DEVELOP TO OUR
IMMEDIATE WEST DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS AND SLOWLY MOVE IT TO
THE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. BETTER HEATING ALONG THE RIDGE
TOPS SHOULD BE THE PRIME FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHERE HIGHER SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES SETUP AND
SOMEWHAT BETTER 0-4KM SHEAR VALUES...AROUND 35 KNOTS. ONE ISSUE IS
STRICTLY TIED TO THE TIMING OF THE TROUGHS PASSAGE AS THE SHEAR
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NONE-THE-LESS
POP-UP/AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH BETTER ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND NORTH. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
STRONG, HIGH PWATS WILL ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
TEMPERATURES STILL RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH COULD END UP A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER IN
PLACE.

NOT EXPECTING TO HAVE ISSUES WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AS WE SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MIX OUT THE DEWPOINTS A BIT, THOUGH MUCH LESS THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS, AND KEEP VALUES SLIGHTLY STICKIER THAN PREDICTED AFTERNOON
MAXES.

THURSDAY - FRIDAY...COLD FRONT LOOKS TO STALL AND EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY. THE FORCING WITH THE FRONT
DECREASES WITH TIME BECOMING NIL BY FRIDAY. AGAIN, WITH A WARM
AIRMASS IN PLACE, THOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS, WE WILL
HAVE PLENTY OF DEWPOINT POOLING OCCURRING TO KEEP THE CHANCE POPS
BOTH DAYS...DIFFUSE FRONT WILL ACT AS A MOISTURE CONDUIT WITH
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN BEING THE BIGGER ISSUE COMPARED TO SEVERE
STORMS.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...WE WILL KEY ON SUNDAY VS SATURDAY AS THE
CONVECTIVELY MORE ACTIVE DAY GIVEN THE BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS AND
OVERALL TENDENCY FOR A SLOWER TIMING. POPS HIT A RELATIVE LOW ON
SATURDAY BEFORE RAMPING UP AGAIN ON SUNDAY. ALSO GIVEN THE SLOWER
FRONTAL TIMING, MAX TEMPS ARE MUCH CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE AND EC MOS
GUIDANCE THAN GFS MOS.

MONDAY...INITIAL LOOK AT MONDAY HAS THE FRONT STALLED JUST SOUTH OF
OUR CWA, THIS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY COOLER WITH STILL SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND. EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO KEEP
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE REGION WHICH MAY PRODUCE A MUCH NEEDED
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WITH SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS...JET INTERACTION AND PASSING SHORTWAVES.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PREDOMINATELY VFR TODAY AND THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS 5-10 KT
THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE. MAY SEE AN ISOLATED SHRA OR TSRA IN VC OF ABE/RDG BUT
COVERAGE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

MOST TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN AT VFR OVERNIGHT BUT PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP AT THE USUAL FOG-PRONE TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLE MORNING MVFR FOG. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS...BETTER CHANCES ACROSS RDG/ABE.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS FOLLOWED BY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING WAS CANCELLED AS WINDS ARE BELOW 20 KT AND SEAS 4 FT OR
LESS.

DEBATED ON WHETHER OR NOT TO ISSUE A SCA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FOR A PERIOD LATE IN THE DAY TODAY
AND WAVES WILL RESPOND ACCORDINGLY. OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY MARINE
HEADLINE SINCE THE WIND FIELD WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER THIS AFTERNOON
THAN YESTERDAY, SO NEAR-SHORE GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE BELOW 25 KT.
WINDS WILL BE STRONGER A FEW MILES OFFSHORE BUT MIXING WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER DUE TO THE COOLER WATERS. SEAS TONIGHT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE AROUND 4 FT IN THE COASTAL ATLANTIC.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
INPLACE. GUSTS MAY REACH 25 KNOTS WITH SEAS REACHING 5 FEET ON
THE OCEAN WATERS. STILL DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A SCA
ON THIS SHIFT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD BE BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS A WEAKER PRESSURE PATTERN SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOP 10 WARMEST MAY WILL OCCUR IN LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

THE FIRST 25 DAYS OF MAY IN OUR FORECAST AREA WERE AVERAGING
ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

RUNNING THE NUMBERS FROM THE FCST THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH WE
FIND THE FOLLOWING.

FOR PHILADELPHIA...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1874.
PROJECTING A MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 69 TO 70 RISING FROM
THE CURRENT VALUE OF 67.8, AT LEAST 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
HEADING FOR MOST LIKELY THE THIRD WARMEST MAY ON RECORD. WARMEST
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN MAY ON RECORD WAS 70.8 IN 1991. THEN 69.2
2004 AND 68.2 IN 2012.

FOR ALLENTOWN...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1922. THE MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IS CURRENTLY 63.9 DEGREES. IT IS LIKELY TO
INCREASE BY A DEGREE OR TWO LATER THIS WEEK, LEADING TO A TOP 10
WARMEST MAY THIS YEAR AT ALLENTOWN. THE WARMEST AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE IN MAY WAS 67.2 BACK IN 1991.

FOR WILMINGTON.... THE MONTH OF MAY IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE
TOP 5- 10 WARMEST. THE CURRENT MONTHLY TEMPERATURE IS 65.8 DEGREES
AND SHOULD RISE A DEGREE OR TWO BY MONTHS END. THE WARMEST MAY WAS
IN 1896 WHERE THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 70.1 DEGREES. IN 1991
THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 69.1 DEGREES.

FOR ATLANTIC CITY... THE MONTH IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE TOP
THREE WARMEST MAYS. CURRENTLY, THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE
MONTH IS 64.5 DEGREES AND IS LIKELY TO RISE A DEGREE TOR TWO BY
MONTHS END. THE WARMEST MAY WAS BACK IN 2004 WHERE THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE REACHED 66.9 DEGREES. IN 1991 THE MONTHLY AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE WAS 66 DEGREES. BOTH 2011 AND 2012 SAW A MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 65 DEGREES.

NORMAL FIRST DATE OF 90 OR HIGHER.

PHILADELPHIA MAY 29 ALLENTOWN MAY 30 WILMINGTON JUNE 4 ATLANTIC
CITY JUNE 11.

*************************************************************

HERE IS OUR ANNUAL LOOK AS TO HOW HOT, HOT, HOT THE SUMMER WILL
BE BASED ON PAST PERFORMANCES.

A FULL FLEDGED EL NINO IS UNDERWAY IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. ALL
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS KEEP IT GOING, THE DIFFERENCES
THAT EXIST ARE TO ITS STRENGTH THROUGH THIS UPCOMING SUMMER. THE
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS ARE AVERAGING A MODERATE EL NINO
FOR THE COMBINED SUMMER MONTHS. SOME MODELS, INCLUDING THE CFS2
AND ECMWF ARE PREDICTING A STRONG EL NINO. IN THE CPC MONITORING
EL NINO ERA STARTING SINCE 1950, THE HIGHEST (WARMEST) SUMMER
ANOMALY RECORDED WAS +1.5C (NEAR OR AT THE THRESHOLD FOR STRONG EL
NINOS) DURING THE SUMMER OF 1997.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL REALLY SEAL THE DEAL THAT THIS MAY WILL
BE UNSEASONABLY WARM IN PHILADELPHIA. IT "MAY" EVEN BE A TOP THREE
WARMEST. THIS FOLLOWS ON THE HEELS OF AN UNSEASONABLY WARM APRIL.
SINCE 1872, THE COMBINATION OF BOTH WARM (TOP THIRD OF ALL YEARS)
APRILS AND MAYS HAS ONLY OCCURRED TWENTY-THREE TIMES. BUT IT HAS
OCCURRED ELEVEN TIMES SINCE 1990 AND SIX OF THE LAST SEVEN
SPRINGS.

SO WE SCOURED THE CLIMATE RECORDS TO FIND BUDDING OR IN PROGRESS
EL NINOS THAT COINCIDED WITH BOTH WARM APRILS AND MAYS LOCALLY IN
THE CPC MONITORING ERA. WE FOUND THREE PAST SUMMERS THAT MET THE
CRITERIA. THE ONE SIGN IS THAT ALL THREE ANALOG SUMMERS WERE
WETTER THAN NORMAL, HOPEFULLY KEEPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS FROM
INTENSIFYING FURTHER.

THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE PREDICTIONS FOR THIS
UPCOMING SUMMER HAS WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER EXPECTED
IN OUR AREA. THE INTERNATIONAL MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE
SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC PREDICTING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION.

THE ANALOGS FOR PHILADELPHIA ARE:

YEAR    JUNE AVG   JULY AVG   AUGUST AVG   SUMMER AVG   SUMMER PCPN

1969      73.4        75.1      75.2         74.6        18.30
1977      68.6        77.8      76.2         74.2        15.50
1991      75.7        79.0      79.0         77.9        12.01
AVG       72.6        77.3      76.8         75.6        15.27

1981-
2010      73.3        78.1      76.6         76.0        11.28
NORMAL

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR OUR FORECAST AREA IS FOR EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/KLEIN
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...GIGI/HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLEIN
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLEIN
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 261250
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
850 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST WEDNESDAY AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT TRIES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND STALL IN OUR VICINITY ON
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
12Z SOUNDINGS CORROBORATE ONGOING FORECAST MAX TEMPS AS WELL AS
NOT MUCH CONVECTION POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES
GEOGRAPHICALLY FARTHER REMOVE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT DAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY TODAY OWING TO THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND
THE HIGH, IT WON`T BE ON PAR WITH A QUINTESSENTIAL MUGGY SUMMER DAY
IN THE MID ATLANTIC. OFFICIAL TEMP FORECAST FALLS ON THE WARMER
ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE AFTER TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE RECENT COOL BIAS
EXHIBITED BY THE MODELS. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY TO BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S WHICH IS GENERALLY ON PAR WITH YESTERDAY, IF NOT A DEGREE
OR TWO WARMER. DID NOT QUITE GO HIGH ENOUGH TO FORECAST THE FIRST 90
DEGREE DAY OF THE SEASON FOR PHILADELPHIA, BUT THE POSSIBILITY
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT JUST EAST OF THE EAST
COAST TODAY. THE LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE
WILL WEAKEN OVERHEAD A BIT, WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME POP UP SHOWERS
AND STORMS FORMING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE PA AND NW NJ. THE
WINDOW FOR CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WHEN
DIURNAL INSTABILITY PEAKS AND A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MOVES AROUND THE RIDGE AND
INTO EASTERN PA. MLCAPE PROFILES BELOW 1000 J/KG AND DEEP-LAYER BULK
SHEAR BELOW 25 KT ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSE/ORGANIZED STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE TONIGHT WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH. HOURLY POPS FOR TONIGHT EXHIBIT A SEMI-
DIURNAL TREND; DECREASING AFTER SUNSET DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER, ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY LAST INTO PART OF THE
NIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA.

AT THE VERY LEAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND KEEP TEMPS
WARMER THAN IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. FORECAST LOWS ARE GENERALLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL, BUT THERE MAY
BE PATCHY FOG THAT DEVELOPS TOWARD DAWN AT INLAND LOCATIONS THAT
RECEIVE ANY RAINFALL TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS EAST COAST RIDGING AS THE DOMINANT FORCE
THROUGH MOST OF THE LONGTERM PERIOD, WITH A RIPPLE OR TWO. BY THE
WEEKEND THE RIDGING BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN, MOVES OFF TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST, WHILE GREAT LAKES TROUGHING STARTS TO PUSH IN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

OVERALL THE LONGTERM REMAINS IN TACT FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT WITH
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON TIME
PERIOD...BETTER WEST THAN EAST WITH LEE TROUGHING POSSIBLE AND
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS.

WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. EXPECTING A THERMAL/LEE SIDE TROUGH TO DEVELOP TO OUR
IMMEDIATE WEST DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS AND SLOWLY MOVE IT TO
THE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. BETTER HEATING ALONG THE RIDGE
TOPS SHOULD BE THE PRIME FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHERE HIGHER SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES SETUP AND
SOMEWHAT BETTER 0-4KM SHEAR VALUES...AROUND 35 KNOTS. ONE ISSUE IS
STRICTLY TIED TO THE TIMING OF THE TROUGHS PASSAGE AS THE SHEAR
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NONE-THE-LESS
POP-UP/AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH BETTER ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND NORTH. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
STRONG, HIGH PWATS WILL ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
TEMPERATURES STILL RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH COULD END UP A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER IN
PLACE.

NOT EXPECTING TO HAVE ISSUES WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AS WE SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MIX OUT THE DEWPOINTS A BIT, THOUGH MUCH LESS THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS, AND KEEP VALUES SLIGHTLY STICKIER THAN PREDICTED AFTERNOON
MAXES.

THURSDAY - FRIDAY...COLD FRONT LOOKS TO STALL AND EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY. THE FORCING WITH THE FRONT
DECREASES WITH TIME BECOMING NIL BY FRIDAY. AGAIN, WITH A WARM
AIRMASS IN PLACE, THOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS, WE WILL
HAVE PLENTY OF DEWPOINT POOLING OCCURRING TO KEEP THE CHANCE POPS
BOTH DAYS...DIFFUSE FRONT WILL ACT AS A MOISTURE CONDUIT WITH
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN BEING THE BIGGER ISSUE COMPARED TO SEVERE
STORMS.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...WE WILL KEY ON SUNDAY VS SATURDAY AS THE
CONVECTIVELY MORE ACTIVE DAY GIVEN THE BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS AND
OVERALL TENDENCY FOR A SLOWER TIMING. POPS HIT A RELATIVE LOW ON
SATURDAY BEFORE RAMPING UP AGAIN ON SUNDAY. ALSO GIVEN THE SLOWER
FRONTAL TIMING, MAX TEMPS ARE MUCH CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE AND EC MOS
GUIDANCE THAN GFS MOS.

MONDAY...INITIAL LOOK AT MONDAY HAS THE FRONT STALLED JUST SOUTH OF
OUR CWA, THIS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY COOLER WITH STILL SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND. EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO KEEP
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE REGION WHICH MAY PRODUCE A MUCH NEEDED
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WITH SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS...JET INTERACTION AND PASSING SHORTWAVES.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PREDOMINATELY VFR TODAY AND THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS 5-10 KT
THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE. MAY SEE AN ISOLATED SHRA OR TSRA IN VC OF ABE/RDG BUT
COVERAGE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

MOST TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN AT VFR OVERNIGHT BUT PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP AT THE USUAL FOG-PRONE TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLE MORNING MVFR FOG. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS...BETTER CHANCES ACROSS RDG/ABE.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS FOLLOWED BY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING WAS CANCELLED AS WINDS ARE BELOW 20 KT AND SEAS 4 FT OR
LESS.

DEBATED ON WHETHER OR NOT TO ISSUE A SCA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FOR A PERIOD LATE IN THE DAY TODAY
AND WAVES WILL RESPOND ACCORDINGLY. OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY MARINE
HEADLINE SINCE THE WIND FIELD WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER THIS AFTERNOON
THAN YESTERDAY, SO NEAR-SHORE GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE BELOW 25 KT.
WINDS WILL BE STRONGER A FEW MILES OFFSHORE BUT MIXING WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER DUE TO THE COOLER WATERS. SEAS TONIGHT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE AROUND 4 FT IN THE COASTAL ATLANTIC.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
INPLACE. GUSTS MAY REACH 25 KNOTS WITH SEAS REACHING 5 FEET ON
THE OCEAN WATERS. STILL DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A SCA
ON THIS SHIFT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD BE BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS A WEAKER PRESSURE PATTERN SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOP 10 WARMEST MAY WILL OCCUR IN LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

THE FIRST 25 DAYS OF MAY IN OUR FORECAST AREA WERE AVERAGING
ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

RUNNING THE NUMBERS FROM THE FCST THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH WE
FIND THE FOLLOWING.

FOR PHILADELPHIA...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1874.
PROJECTING A MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 69 TO 70 RISING FROM
THE CURRENT VALUE OF 67.8, AT LEAST 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
HEADING FOR MOST LIKELY THE THIRD WARMEST MAY ON RECORD. WARMEST
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN MAY ON RECORD WAS 70.8 IN 1991. THEN 69.2
2004 AND 68.2 IN 2012.

FOR ALLENTOWN...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1922. THE MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IS CURRENTLY 63.9 DEGREES. IT IS LIKELY TO
INCREASE BY A DEGREE OR TWO LATER THIS WEEK, LEADING TO A TOP 10
WARMEST MAY THIS YEAR AT ALLENTOWN. THE WARMEST AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE IN MAY WAS 67.2 BACK IN 1991.

FOR WILMINGTON.... THE MONTH OF MAY IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE
TOP 5- 10 WARMEST. THE CURRENT MONTHLY TEMPERATURE IS 65.8 DEGREES
AND SHOULD RISE A DEGREE OR TWO BY MONTHS END. THE WARMEST MAY WAS
IN 1896 WHERE THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 70.1 DEGREES. IN 1991
THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 69.1 DEGREES.

FOR ATLANTIC CITY... THE MONTH IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE TOP
THREE WARMEST MAYS. CURRENTLY, THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE
MONTH IS 64.5 DEGREES AND IS LIKELY TO RISE A DEGREE TOR TWO BY
MONTHS END. THE WARMEST MAY WAS BACK IN 2004 WHERE THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE REACHED 66.9 DEGREES. IN 1991 THE MONTHLY AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE WAS 66 DEGREES. BOTH 2011 AND 2012 SAW A MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 65 DEGREES.

NORMAL FIRST DATE OF 90 OR HIGHER.

PHILADELPHIA MAY 29 ALLENTOWN MAY 30 WILMINGTON JUNE 4 ATLANTIC
CITY JUNE 11.

*************************************************************

HERE IS OUR ANNUAL LOOK AS TO HOW HOT, HOT, HOT THE SUMMER WILL
BE BASED ON PAST PERFORMANCES.

A FULL FLEDGED EL NINO IS UNDERWAY IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. ALL
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS KEEP IT GOING, THE DIFFERENCES
THAT EXIST ARE TO ITS STRENGTH THROUGH THIS UPCOMING SUMMER. THE
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS ARE AVERAGING A MODERATE EL NINO
FOR THE COMBINED SUMMER MONTHS. SOME MODELS, INCLUDING THE CFS2
AND ECMWF ARE PREDICTING A STRONG EL NINO. IN THE CPC MONITORING
EL NINO ERA STARTING SINCE 1950, THE HIGHEST (WARMEST) SUMMER
ANOMALY RECORDED WAS +1.5C (NEAR OR AT THE THRESHOLD FOR STRONG EL
NINOS) DURING THE SUMMER OF 1997.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL REALLY SEAL THE DEAL THAT THIS MAY WILL
BE UNSEASONABLY WARM IN PHILADELPHIA. IT "MAY" EVEN BE A TOP THREE
WARMEST. THIS FOLLOWS ON THE HEELS OF AN UNSEASONABLY WARM APRIL.
SINCE 1872, THE COMBINATION OF BOTH WARM (TOP THIRD OF ALL YEARS)
APRILS AND MAYS HAS ONLY OCCURRED TWENTY-THREE TIMES. BUT IT HAS
OCCURRED ELEVEN TIMES SINCE 1990 AND SIX OF THE LAST SEVEN
SPRINGS.

SO WE SCOURED THE CLIMATE RECORDS TO FIND BUDDING OR IN PROGRESS
EL NINOS THAT COINCIDED WITH BOTH WARM APRILS AND MAYS LOCALLY IN
THE CPC MONITORING ERA. WE FOUND THREE PAST SUMMERS THAT MET THE
CRITERIA. THE ONE SIGN IS THAT ALL THREE ANALOG SUMMERS WERE
WETTER THAN NORMAL, HOPEFULLY KEEPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS FROM
INTENSIFYING FURTHER.

THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE PREDICTIONS FOR THIS
UPCOMING SUMMER HAS WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER EXPECTED
IN OUR AREA. THE INTERNATIONAL MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE
SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC PREDICTING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION.

THE ANALOGS FOR PHILADELPHIA ARE:

YEAR    JUNE AVG   JULY AVG   AUGUST AVG   SUMMER AVG   SUMMER PCPN

1969      73.4        75.1      75.2         74.6        18.30
1977      68.6        77.8      76.2         74.2        15.50
1991      75.7        79.0      79.0         77.9        12.01
AVG       72.6        77.3      76.8         75.6        15.27

1981-
2010      73.3        78.1      76.6         76.0        11.28
NORMAL

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR OUR FORECAST AREA IS FOR EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/KLEIN
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...GIGI/HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLEIN
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLEIN
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 261033
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
633 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORTENED WORK
WEEK...WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
625 AM...UPDATED TO REDUCE POPS IN WAKE OF FIRST SHORTWAVE EXITING
THE NORTHERN CWA. STILL EXPECT A LULL DURING THE LATE
MORNING...BEFORE NEXT RIPPLE ARRIVES IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
EXPECT DAYTIME HEATING TO GET SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA GOING THIS
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE. ALSO
UPDATED SKY/HOURLY TEMP GRIDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IS CURRENTLY RIDING NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME SHRA. NO THUNDER SO FAR AS WARM AIR
ALOFT IS KEEPING INSTABILITY IN CHECK. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THIS MORNING...WITH A LULL IN ACTIVITY
DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP TO INCREASE CAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...BUT A TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING THROUGH MIDAFTERNOON AND
THUS WILL KEEP POPS AT THE LOWER END OF CHANCE. THIS WILL CHANGE
TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY AS A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE LIKELY POPS SPREADING ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AS A RESULT.

SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS UP OVER MOST OF
OHIO. THINK THAT BETTER MIDLEVEL FLOW AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
REALIZED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...TOWARDS THE MIDDLE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
HOWEVER STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD PROPAGATE TOWARDS THE WV/OH
BORDER LATE TODAY WITH SOME STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. WILL MENTION POTENTIAL IN HWO BUT DO NOT FORESEE A
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE OUTBREAK. STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AS WELL. PWATS IN THE 1.5 TO 1.75 RANGE
ARE NEAR THE HIGH END OF CLIMATOLOGY...AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL
LIKELY EXCEED 10K FEET TONIGHT. IT DOES APPEAR THAT STORMS WILL
MOVE WITH SUFFICIENT SPEED TO DETER EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE
MOST PART...BUT POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED.

TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY TWEAKED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY TODAY TO GET
MORE IN LINE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS. LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR
TONIGHT.  CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND SHIFT EASTWARD. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER
THE REGION ALLOWED BY SOUTHWEST FLOW. THEREFORE...CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS WERE MAINTAINED AND ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE.

A LULL IN PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
AS BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UNDER A WEAK RIDGE IN THE WAKE OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES RISE AGAIN ON SATURDAY SUPPORTED BY AN
APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY AND A WEAK SPLIT FLOW ALOFT. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SAG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
AS PREDICTED BY ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS.

FORECASTED TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VARIOUS LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS AGREE ON STUBBORN BOUNDARY LAID
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE CHANCE
POPS WERE PRESERVED WITH THE SUPPORT OF A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER
OVER THE OUTCOME OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST IN
TERMS OF MAGNITUDE...POSITION...AND TIMING. THEREFORE PERSISTENCE
WAS HEAVILY USED IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AND LOW CHANCE
POPS WERE INTRODUCED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MEAN TODAY. SOME MVFR
STRATOCU MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT OHIO/NW PA TERMINALS THIS MORNING
BEFORE MIXING OUT. OTHERWISE...VFR CU/AC FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. STILL EXPECT VCTS TO HANDLE ANY SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AS TIMING AND COVERAGE SHOULD NOT WARRANT ANYTHING MORE
FIRM IN THE TAF. BEST CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS WILL BE IN OHIO
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WILL OCCUR WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A MORE POTENT MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE...WHICH WILL CREATE
BETTER PRECIPITATION COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. IT WILL
STILL TAKE MUCH OF THE NIGHT TO SINK CIGS DOWN TO MVFR LEVEL
THOUGH. CANNOT RULE OUT SPOTTY IFR LATE IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE
DECENT RAINFALL. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS
OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.


.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 261033
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
633 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORTENED WORK
WEEK...WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
625 AM...UPDATED TO REDUCE POPS IN WAKE OF FIRST SHORTWAVE EXITING
THE NORTHERN CWA. STILL EXPECT A LULL DURING THE LATE
MORNING...BEFORE NEXT RIPPLE ARRIVES IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
EXPECT DAYTIME HEATING TO GET SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA GOING THIS
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE. ALSO
UPDATED SKY/HOURLY TEMP GRIDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IS CURRENTLY RIDING NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME SHRA. NO THUNDER SO FAR AS WARM AIR
ALOFT IS KEEPING INSTABILITY IN CHECK. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THIS MORNING...WITH A LULL IN ACTIVITY
DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP TO INCREASE CAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...BUT A TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING THROUGH MIDAFTERNOON AND
THUS WILL KEEP POPS AT THE LOWER END OF CHANCE. THIS WILL CHANGE
TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY AS A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE LIKELY POPS SPREADING ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AS A RESULT.

SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS UP OVER MOST OF
OHIO. THINK THAT BETTER MIDLEVEL FLOW AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
REALIZED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...TOWARDS THE MIDDLE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
HOWEVER STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD PROPAGATE TOWARDS THE WV/OH
BORDER LATE TODAY WITH SOME STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. WILL MENTION POTENTIAL IN HWO BUT DO NOT FORESEE A
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE OUTBREAK. STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AS WELL. PWATS IN THE 1.5 TO 1.75 RANGE
ARE NEAR THE HIGH END OF CLIMATOLOGY...AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL
LIKELY EXCEED 10K FEET TONIGHT. IT DOES APPEAR THAT STORMS WILL
MOVE WITH SUFFICIENT SPEED TO DETER EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE
MOST PART...BUT POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED.

TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY TWEAKED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY TODAY TO GET
MORE IN LINE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS. LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR
TONIGHT.  CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND SHIFT EASTWARD. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER
THE REGION ALLOWED BY SOUTHWEST FLOW. THEREFORE...CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS WERE MAINTAINED AND ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE.

A LULL IN PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
AS BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UNDER A WEAK RIDGE IN THE WAKE OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES RISE AGAIN ON SATURDAY SUPPORTED BY AN
APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY AND A WEAK SPLIT FLOW ALOFT. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SAG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
AS PREDICTED BY ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS.

FORECASTED TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VARIOUS LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS AGREE ON STUBBORN BOUNDARY LAID
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE CHANCE
POPS WERE PRESERVED WITH THE SUPPORT OF A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER
OVER THE OUTCOME OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST IN
TERMS OF MAGNITUDE...POSITION...AND TIMING. THEREFORE PERSISTENCE
WAS HEAVILY USED IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AND LOW CHANCE
POPS WERE INTRODUCED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MEAN TODAY. SOME MVFR
STRATOCU MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT OHIO/NW PA TERMINALS THIS MORNING
BEFORE MIXING OUT. OTHERWISE...VFR CU/AC FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. STILL EXPECT VCTS TO HANDLE ANY SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AS TIMING AND COVERAGE SHOULD NOT WARRANT ANYTHING MORE
FIRM IN THE TAF. BEST CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS WILL BE IN OHIO
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WILL OCCUR WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A MORE POTENT MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE...WHICH WILL CREATE
BETTER PRECIPITATION COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. IT WILL
STILL TAKE MUCH OF THE NIGHT TO SINK CIGS DOWN TO MVFR LEVEL
THOUGH. CANNOT RULE OUT SPOTTY IFR LATE IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE
DECENT RAINFALL. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS
OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.


.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 260830
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
430 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH PERIODS OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM PRIMARILY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN AREA OF VERY WEAK MOISTURE/LIFT IS ROTATING UP INTO THE SW
PANHANDLE OF VA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN
WEAKENING OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
FOR FAR WRN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS MORNING (DESPITE WEAK RADAR
ECHO RETURNS SEEN IN COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY IMAGES). THE DAY WILL
BEGIN MOSTLY SUNNY EAST AND PARTLY SUNNY WEST...WITH MID/HIGH
CLOUDS SPREADING NNE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO SIT OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVERHEAD TODAY. THE MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL HAMPER THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION UNTIL THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF
THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE BY THIS EVENING. THE MAJORITY OF THE FA
WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY...EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN PIEDMONT WHERE WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE MID/UPPER RIDGE COULD
PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH ADDITIONAL LIFT DURING PEAK HEATING TO TOUCH
OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET ONCE
HEATING IS LIMITED/LOST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN MONDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 80S (UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S AT THE BEACHES). DEWPOINTS WILL RUN ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES WARMER WHICH WILL MARK A RETURN TO INCREASINGLY HUMID
CONDITIONS IN THIS WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...ANY REMNANT
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A WARM NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY 65-70
WITH A LIGHT TO SLIGHTLY BREEZY SOUTH WIND.

THE BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS STEADFAST OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE
THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND WED...AND THEN ALONG THE
ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WED NIGHT/THU. THIS TROUGH WILL BE A KEY
PLAYER IN THE WEATHER ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM WED
THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL BREAK DOWN
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND FLATTEN THE AXIS TO BE MORE IN LINE
WITH THE SE COAST FROM NORTH CAROLINA TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC AND GULF OF MEXICO TO STREAM
INTO THE AREA AND ALSO FOR WAA PROCESSES TO ERODE AWAY AT THE
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE SINCE THE
PAST WEEKEND. THE END RESULT WILL BE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS (SHIFTING FROM WEST TO EAST EACH DAY)
AS REMNANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM MCS ACTIVITY IN THE GULF COAST
STATES ROUNDS THE TROUGH AND RIDES UP INTO THE REGION ON THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF THE MID/UPPER RIDGE. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT HOWEVER. ALSO...
EXPECT INCREASING HIGH/LOW TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS AS WAA PROCESSES
BEGIN TO ERODE AWAY AT THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS THAT HAS
BEEN IN PLACE SINCE THIS PAST WEEKEND. INCREASED MOISTURE (VIA
DEWPOINTS AND INCOMING SHORTWAVES)...INCREASED PWATS TO 1.50-2.00
INCHES...SATURATED SOUNDING PROFILES ABOVE 700-500MB...AND WEAK
STEERING FLOW ALOFT ALL SUGGEST THAT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
MAIN IMPACT WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 80S WED/THU (ABOUT
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). EXPECT TEMPS TO BE IN THE LOW-MID 80S
AT THE BEACHES. LOW TEMPS WED/THU NIGHTS 65-70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
EACH DAY AND TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR TSTMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NW AREAS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN DURING THE
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NW AND
SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY LATE IN THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

GUIDANCE HAS H85 TEMPERATURES GETTING NO HIGHER THAN 16C. CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WILL ALSO HOLD READINGS
DOWN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 85 TO 90 INLAND
AND UPR 70S TO LWR 80S NEAR THE COAST. IT WILL BE MODERATELY HUMID
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 65-70 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING S/SW WINDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT WELL INLAND...BUT IS
UNLIKELY TO AFFECT ANY OF THE TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE...BUT
SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF MAINLY LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS IS
EXPECTED WED AND THU (HIGHEST CHANCE ON THU). OUTSIDE OF TSTMS...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL...SOME PATCHY 2-4SM FOG MAY BE
POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE WEEK DURING THE EARLY AM HRS PRIOR TO
SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID ATLC COAST
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACRS ONTARIO CANADA.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL...WITH SOME MINOR DIRECTION CHANGES
ON A DIURNAL BASIS (SSE MIDDAY THROUGH EVENING TO SSW OVERNIGHT
THROUGH THE MORNING). PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY AND WED IS TIGHT
ENOUGH THAT WINDS SHOULD AVG 10 TO 15 KT...WITH SOME INCREASE IN
THE LATE AFTN/EVENING RESULTING IN GUSTS TO 20 KT. OVERALL STILL
FEEL THIS IS TOO MARGINAL TO RAISE ANY SCA HEADLINES ACRS THE
BAY/RIVERS/SOUND BUT BOATING CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE IDEAL AND
WAVES IN THE BAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AT 2-3 FT WITH COASTAL
SEAS BUILDING TO 3-4 FT. GRADIENT WEAKENS A BIT ON THU...AND WINDS
SHOULD BE A FEW KT LESS OVERALL. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN SOUTHERLY
FOR THE MOST PART INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB/MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 260830
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
430 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH PERIODS OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM PRIMARILY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN AREA OF VERY WEAK MOISTURE/LIFT IS ROTATING UP INTO THE SW
PANHANDLE OF VA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN
WEAKENING OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
FOR FAR WRN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS MORNING (DESPITE WEAK RADAR
ECHO RETURNS SEEN IN COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY IMAGES). THE DAY WILL
BEGIN MOSTLY SUNNY EAST AND PARTLY SUNNY WEST...WITH MID/HIGH
CLOUDS SPREADING NNE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO SIT OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVERHEAD TODAY. THE MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL HAMPER THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION UNTIL THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF
THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE BY THIS EVENING. THE MAJORITY OF THE FA
WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY...EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN PIEDMONT WHERE WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE MID/UPPER RIDGE COULD
PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH ADDITIONAL LIFT DURING PEAK HEATING TO TOUCH
OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET ONCE
HEATING IS LIMITED/LOST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN MONDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 80S (UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S AT THE BEACHES). DEWPOINTS WILL RUN ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES WARMER WHICH WILL MARK A RETURN TO INCREASINGLY HUMID
CONDITIONS IN THIS WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...ANY REMNANT
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A WARM NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY 65-70
WITH A LIGHT TO SLIGHTLY BREEZY SOUTH WIND.

THE BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS STEADFAST OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE
THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND WED...AND THEN ALONG THE
ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WED NIGHT/THU. THIS TROUGH WILL BE A KEY
PLAYER IN THE WEATHER ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM WED
THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL BREAK DOWN
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND FLATTEN THE AXIS TO BE MORE IN LINE
WITH THE SE COAST FROM NORTH CAROLINA TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC AND GULF OF MEXICO TO STREAM
INTO THE AREA AND ALSO FOR WAA PROCESSES TO ERODE AWAY AT THE
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE SINCE THE
PAST WEEKEND. THE END RESULT WILL BE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS (SHIFTING FROM WEST TO EAST EACH DAY)
AS REMNANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM MCS ACTIVITY IN THE GULF COAST
STATES ROUNDS THE TROUGH AND RIDES UP INTO THE REGION ON THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF THE MID/UPPER RIDGE. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT HOWEVER. ALSO...
EXPECT INCREASING HIGH/LOW TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS AS WAA PROCESSES
BEGIN TO ERODE AWAY AT THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS THAT HAS
BEEN IN PLACE SINCE THIS PAST WEEKEND. INCREASED MOISTURE (VIA
DEWPOINTS AND INCOMING SHORTWAVES)...INCREASED PWATS TO 1.50-2.00
INCHES...SATURATED SOUNDING PROFILES ABOVE 700-500MB...AND WEAK
STEERING FLOW ALOFT ALL SUGGEST THAT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
MAIN IMPACT WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 80S WED/THU (ABOUT
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). EXPECT TEMPS TO BE IN THE LOW-MID 80S
AT THE BEACHES. LOW TEMPS WED/THU NIGHTS 65-70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
EACH DAY AND TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR TSTMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NW AREAS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN DURING THE
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NW AND
SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY LATE IN THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

GUIDANCE HAS H85 TEMPERATURES GETTING NO HIGHER THAN 16C. CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WILL ALSO HOLD READINGS
DOWN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 85 TO 90 INLAND
AND UPR 70S TO LWR 80S NEAR THE COAST. IT WILL BE MODERATELY HUMID
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 65-70 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING S/SW WINDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT WELL INLAND...BUT IS
UNLIKELY TO AFFECT ANY OF THE TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE...BUT
SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF MAINLY LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS IS
EXPECTED WED AND THU (HIGHEST CHANCE ON THU). OUTSIDE OF TSTMS...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL...SOME PATCHY 2-4SM FOG MAY BE
POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE WEEK DURING THE EARLY AM HRS PRIOR TO
SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID ATLC COAST
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACRS ONTARIO CANADA.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL...WITH SOME MINOR DIRECTION CHANGES
ON A DIURNAL BASIS (SSE MIDDAY THROUGH EVENING TO SSW OVERNIGHT
THROUGH THE MORNING). PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY AND WED IS TIGHT
ENOUGH THAT WINDS SHOULD AVG 10 TO 15 KT...WITH SOME INCREASE IN
THE LATE AFTN/EVENING RESULTING IN GUSTS TO 20 KT. OVERALL STILL
FEEL THIS IS TOO MARGINAL TO RAISE ANY SCA HEADLINES ACRS THE
BAY/RIVERS/SOUND BUT BOATING CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE IDEAL AND
WAVES IN THE BAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AT 2-3 FT WITH COASTAL
SEAS BUILDING TO 3-4 FT. GRADIENT WEAKENS A BIT ON THU...AND WINDS
SHOULD BE A FEW KT LESS OVERALL. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN SOUTHERLY
FOR THE MOST PART INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB/MAS



000
FXUS61 KPHI 260827
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
427 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST WEDNESDAY AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT TRIES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND STALL IN OUR VICINITY ON
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT DAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY TODAY OWING TO THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND
THE HIGH, IT WON`T BE ON PAR WITH A QUINTESSENTIAL MUGGY SUMMER DAY
IN THE MID ATLANTIC. OFFICIAL TEMP FORECAST FALLS ON THE WARMER
ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE AFTER TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE RECENT COOL BIAS
EXHIBITED BY THE MODELS. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY TO BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S WHICH IS GENERALLY ON PAR WITH YESTERDAY, IF NOT A DEGREE
OR TWO WARMER. DID NOT QUITE GO HIGH ENOUGH TO FORECAST THE FIRST 90
DEGREE DAY OF THE SEASON FOR PHILADELPHIA, BUT THE POSSIBILITY
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT JUST EAST OF THE EAST
COAST TODAY. THE LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE
WILL WEAKEN OVERHEAD A BIT, WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME POP UP SHOWERS
AND STORMS FORMING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE PA AND NW NJ. THE
WINDOW FOR CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WHEN
DIURNAL INSTABILITY PEAKS AND A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MOVES AROUND THE RIDGE AND
INTO EASTERN PA. MLCAPE PROFILES BELOW 1000 J/KG AND DEEP-LAYER BULK
SHEAR BELOW 25 KT ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSE/ORGANIZED STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE TONIGHT WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH. HOURLY POPS FOR TONIGHT EXHIBIT A SEMI-
DIURNAL TREND; DECREASING AFTER SUNSET DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER, ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY LAST INTO PART OF THE
NIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA.

AT THE VERY LEAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND KEEP TEMPS
WARMER THAN IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. FORECAST LOWS ARE GENERALLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL, BUT THERE MAY
BE PATCHY FOG THAT DEVELOPS TOWARD DAWN AT INLAND LOCATIONS THAT
RECEIVE ANY RAINFALL TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS EAST COAST RIDGING AS THE DOMINANT FORCE
THROUGH MOST OF THE LONGTERM PERIOD, WITH A RIPPLE OR TWO. BY THE
WEEKEND THE RIDGING BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN, MOVES OFF TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST, WHILE GREAT LAKES TROUGHING STARTS TO PUSH IN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

OVERALL THE LONGTERM REMAINS IN TACT FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT WITH
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON TIME
PERIOD...BETTER WEST THAN EAST WITH LEE TROUGHING POSSIBLE AND
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS.

WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. EXPECTING A THERMAL/LEE SIDE TROUGH TO DEVELOP TO OUR
IMMEDIATE WEST DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS AND SLOWLY MOVE IT TO
THE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. BETTER HEATING ALONG THE RIDGE
TOPS SHOULD BE THE PRIME FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHERE HIGHER SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES SETUP AND
SOMEWHAT BETTER 0-4KM SHEAR VALUES...AROUND 35 KNOTS. ONE ISSUE IS
STRICTLY TIED TO THE TIMING OF THE TROUGHS PASSAGE AS THE SHEAR
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NONE-THE-LESS
POP-UP/AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH BETTER ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND NORTH. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
STRONG, HIGH PWATS WILL ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
TEMPERATURES STILL RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH COULD END UP A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER IN
PLACE.

NOT EXPECTING TO HAVE ISSUES WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AS WE SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MIX OUT THE DEWPOINTS A BIT, THOUGH MUCH LESS THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS, AND KEEP VALUES SLIGHTLY STICKIER THAN PREDICTED AFTERNOON
MAXES.

THURSDAY - FRIDAY...COLD FRONT LOOKS TO STALL AND EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY. THE FORCING WITH THE FRONT
DECREASES WITH TIME BECOMING NIL BY FRIDAY. AGAIN, WITH A WARM
AIRMASS IN PLACE, THOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS, WE WILL
HAVE PLENTY OF DEWPOINT POOLING OCCURRING TO KEEP THE CHANCE POPS
BOTH DAYS...DIFFUSE FRONT WILL ACT AS A MOISTURE CONDUIT WITH
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN BEING THE BIGGER ISSUE COMPARED TO SEVERE
STORMS.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...WE WILL KEY ON SUNDAY VS SATURDAY AS THE
CONVECTIVELY MORE ACTIVE DAY GIVEN THE BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS AND
OVERALL TENDENCY FOR A SLOWER TIMING. POPS HIT A RELATIVE LOW ON
SATURDAY BEFORE RAMPING UP AGAIN ON SUNDAY. ALSO GIVEN THE SLOWER
FRONTAL TIMING, MAX TEMPS ARE MUCH CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE AND EC MOS
GUIDANCE THAN GFS MOS.

MONDAY...INITIAL LOOK AT MONDAY HAS THE FRONT STALLED JUST SOUTH OF
OUR CWA, THIS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY COOLER WITH STILL SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND. EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO KEEP
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE REGION WHICH MAY PRODUCE A MUCH NEEDED
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WITH SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS...JET INTERACTION AND PASSING SHORTWAVES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PREDOMINATELY VFR TODAY AND THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS 5-10 KT
THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE. MAY SEE AN ISOLATED SHRA OR TSRA IN VC OF ABE/RDG BUT
COVERAGE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

MOST TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN AT VFR OVERNIGHT BUT PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP AT THE USUAL FOG-PRONE TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLE MORNING MVFR FOG. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS...BETTER CHANCES ACROSS RDG/ABE.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS FOLLOWED BY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING WAS CANCELLED AS WINDS ARE BELOW 20 KT AND SEAS 4 FT OR
LESS.

DEBATED ON WHETHER OR NOT TO ISSUE A SCA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FOR A PERIOD LATE IN THE DAY TODAY
AND WAVES WILL RESPOND ACCORDINGLY. OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY MARINE
HEADLINE SINCE THE WIND FIELD WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER THIS AFTERNOON
THAN YESTERDAY, SO NEAR-SHORE GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE BELOW 25 KT.
WINDS WILL BE STRONGER A FEW MILES OFFSHORE BUT MIXING WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER DUE TO THE COOLER WATERS. SEAS TONIGHT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE AROUND 4 FT IN THE COASTAL ATLANTIC.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
INPLACE. GUSTS MAY REACH 25 KNOTS WITH SEAS REACHING 5 FEET ON
THE OCEAN WATERS. STILL DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A SCA
ON THIS SHIFT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD BE BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS A WEAKER PRESSURE PATTERN SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOP 10 WARMEST MAY WILL OCCUR IN LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

THE FIRST 25 DAYS OF MAY IN OUR FORECAST AREA WERE AVERAGING
ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

RUNNING THE NUMBERS FROM THE FCST THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH WE
FIND THE FOLLOWING.

FOR PHILADELPHIA...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1874.
PROJECTING A MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 69 TO 70 RISING FROM
THE CURRENT VALUE OF 67.8, AT LEAST 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
HEADING FOR MOST LIKELY THE THIRD WARMEST MAY ON RECORD. WARMEST
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN MAY ON RECORD WAS 70.8 IN 1991. THEN 69.2
2004 AND 68.2 IN 2012.

FOR ALLENTOWN...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1922. THE MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IS CURRENTLY 63.9 DEGREES. IT IS LIKELY TO
INCREASE BY A DEGREE OR TWO LATER THIS WEEK, LEADING TO A TOP 10
WARMEST MAY THIS YEAR AT ALLENTOWN. THE WARMEST AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE IN MAY WAS 67.2 BACK IN 1991.

FOR WILMINGTON.... THE MONTH OF MAY IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE
TOP 5- 10 WARMEST. THE CURRENT MONTHLY TEMPERATURE IS 65.8 DEGREES
AND SHOULD RISE A DEGREE OR TWO BY MONTHS END. THE WARMEST MAY WAS
IN 1896 WHERE THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 70.1 DEGREES. IN 1991
THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 69.1 DEGREES.

FOR ATLANTIC CITY... THE MONTH IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE TOP
THREE WARMEST MAYS. CURRENTLY, THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE
MONTH IS 64.5 DEGREES AND IS LIKELY TO RISE A DEGREE TOR TWO BY
MONTHS END. THE WARMEST MAY WAS BACK IN 2004 WHERE THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE REACHED 66.9 DEGREES. IN 1991 THE MONTHLY AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE WAS 66 DEGREES. BOTH 2011 AND 2012 SAW A MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 65 DEGREES.

NORMAL FIRST DATE OF 90 OR HIGHER.

PHILADELPHIA MAY 29 ALLENTOWN MAY 30 WILMINGTON JUNE 4 ATLANTIC
CITY JUNE 11.

*************************************************************

HERE IS OUR ANNUAL LOOK AS TO HOW HOT, HOT, HOT THE SUMMER WILL
BE BASED ON PAST PERFORMANCES.

A FULL FLEDGED EL NINO IS UNDERWAY IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. ALL
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS KEEP IT GOING, THE DIFFERENCES
THAT EXIST ARE TO ITS STRENGTH THROUGH THIS UPCOMING SUMMER. THE
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS ARE AVERAGING A MODERATE EL NINO
FOR THE COMBINED SUMMER MONTHS. SOME MODELS, INCLUDING THE CFS2
AND ECMWF ARE PREDICTING A STRONG EL NINO. IN THE CPC MONITORING
EL NINO ERA STARTING SINCE 1950, THE HIGHEST (WARMEST) SUMMER
ANOMALY RECORDED WAS +1.5C (NEAR OR AT THE THRESHOLD FOR STRONG EL
NINOS) DURING THE SUMMER OF 1997.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL REALLY SEAL THE DEAL THAT THIS MAY WILL
BE UNSEASONABLY WARM IN PHILADELPHIA. IT "MAY" EVEN BE A TOP THREE
WARMEST. THIS FOLLOWS ON THE HEELS OF AN UNSEASONABLY WARM APRIL.
SINCE 1872, THE COMBINATION OF BOTH WARM (TOP THIRD OF ALL YEARS)
APRILS AND MAYS HAS ONLY OCCURRED TWENTY-THREE TIMES. BUT IT HAS
OCCURRED ELEVEN TIMES SINCE 1990 AND SIX OF THE LAST SEVEN
SPRINGS.

SO WE SCOURED THE CLIMATE RECORDS TO FIND BUDDING OR IN PROGRESS
EL NINOS THAT COINCIDED WITH BOTH WARM APRILS AND MAYS LOCALLY IN
THE CPC MONITORING ERA. WE FOUND THREE PAST SUMMERS THAT MET THE
CRITERIA. THE ONE SIGN IS THAT ALL THREE ANALOG SUMMERS WERE
WETTER THAN NORMAL, HOPEFULLY KEEPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS FROM
INTENSIFYING FURTHER.

THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE PREDICTIONS FOR THIS
UPCOMING SUMMER HAS WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER EXPECTED
IN OUR AREA. THE INTERNATIONAL MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE
SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC PREDICTING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION.

THE ANALOGS FOR PHILADELPHIA ARE:

YEAR    JUNE AVG   JULY AVG   AUGUST AVG   SUMMER AVG   SUMMER PCPN

1969      73.4        75.1      75.2         74.6        18.30
1977      68.6        77.8      76.2         74.2        15.50
1991      75.7        79.0      79.0         77.9        12.01
AVG       72.6        77.3      76.8         75.6        15.27

1981-
2010      73.3        78.1      76.6         76.0        11.28
NORMAL

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR OUR FORECAST AREA IS FOR EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/KLEIN
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...GIGI/HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLEIN
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLEIN
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 260827
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
427 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST WEDNESDAY AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT TRIES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND STALL IN OUR VICINITY ON
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT DAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY TODAY OWING TO THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND
THE HIGH, IT WON`T BE ON PAR WITH A QUINTESSENTIAL MUGGY SUMMER DAY
IN THE MID ATLANTIC. OFFICIAL TEMP FORECAST FALLS ON THE WARMER
ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE AFTER TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE RECENT COOL BIAS
EXHIBITED BY THE MODELS. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY TO BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S WHICH IS GENERALLY ON PAR WITH YESTERDAY, IF NOT A DEGREE
OR TWO WARMER. DID NOT QUITE GO HIGH ENOUGH TO FORECAST THE FIRST 90
DEGREE DAY OF THE SEASON FOR PHILADELPHIA, BUT THE POSSIBILITY
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT JUST EAST OF THE EAST
COAST TODAY. THE LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE
WILL WEAKEN OVERHEAD A BIT, WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME POP UP SHOWERS
AND STORMS FORMING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE PA AND NW NJ. THE
WINDOW FOR CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WHEN
DIURNAL INSTABILITY PEAKS AND A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MOVES AROUND THE RIDGE AND
INTO EASTERN PA. MLCAPE PROFILES BELOW 1000 J/KG AND DEEP-LAYER BULK
SHEAR BELOW 25 KT ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSE/ORGANIZED STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE TONIGHT WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH. HOURLY POPS FOR TONIGHT EXHIBIT A SEMI-
DIURNAL TREND; DECREASING AFTER SUNSET DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER, ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY LAST INTO PART OF THE
NIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA.

AT THE VERY LEAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND KEEP TEMPS
WARMER THAN IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. FORECAST LOWS ARE GENERALLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL, BUT THERE MAY
BE PATCHY FOG THAT DEVELOPS TOWARD DAWN AT INLAND LOCATIONS THAT
RECEIVE ANY RAINFALL TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS EAST COAST RIDGING AS THE DOMINANT FORCE
THROUGH MOST OF THE LONGTERM PERIOD, WITH A RIPPLE OR TWO. BY THE
WEEKEND THE RIDGING BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN, MOVES OFF TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST, WHILE GREAT LAKES TROUGHING STARTS TO PUSH IN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

OVERALL THE LONGTERM REMAINS IN TACT FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT WITH
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON TIME
PERIOD...BETTER WEST THAN EAST WITH LEE TROUGHING POSSIBLE AND
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS.

WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. EXPECTING A THERMAL/LEE SIDE TROUGH TO DEVELOP TO OUR
IMMEDIATE WEST DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS AND SLOWLY MOVE IT TO
THE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. BETTER HEATING ALONG THE RIDGE
TOPS SHOULD BE THE PRIME FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHERE HIGHER SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES SETUP AND
SOMEWHAT BETTER 0-4KM SHEAR VALUES...AROUND 35 KNOTS. ONE ISSUE IS
STRICTLY TIED TO THE TIMING OF THE TROUGHS PASSAGE AS THE SHEAR
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NONE-THE-LESS
POP-UP/AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH BETTER ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND NORTH. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
STRONG, HIGH PWATS WILL ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
TEMPERATURES STILL RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH COULD END UP A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER IN
PLACE.

NOT EXPECTING TO HAVE ISSUES WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AS WE SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MIX OUT THE DEWPOINTS A BIT, THOUGH MUCH LESS THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS, AND KEEP VALUES SLIGHTLY STICKIER THAN PREDICTED AFTERNOON
MAXES.

THURSDAY - FRIDAY...COLD FRONT LOOKS TO STALL AND EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY. THE FORCING WITH THE FRONT
DECREASES WITH TIME BECOMING NIL BY FRIDAY. AGAIN, WITH A WARM
AIRMASS IN PLACE, THOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS, WE WILL
HAVE PLENTY OF DEWPOINT POOLING OCCURRING TO KEEP THE CHANCE POPS
BOTH DAYS...DIFFUSE FRONT WILL ACT AS A MOISTURE CONDUIT WITH
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN BEING THE BIGGER ISSUE COMPARED TO SEVERE
STORMS.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...WE WILL KEY ON SUNDAY VS SATURDAY AS THE
CONVECTIVELY MORE ACTIVE DAY GIVEN THE BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS AND
OVERALL TENDENCY FOR A SLOWER TIMING. POPS HIT A RELATIVE LOW ON
SATURDAY BEFORE RAMPING UP AGAIN ON SUNDAY. ALSO GIVEN THE SLOWER
FRONTAL TIMING, MAX TEMPS ARE MUCH CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE AND EC MOS
GUIDANCE THAN GFS MOS.

MONDAY...INITIAL LOOK AT MONDAY HAS THE FRONT STALLED JUST SOUTH OF
OUR CWA, THIS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY COOLER WITH STILL SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND. EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO KEEP
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE REGION WHICH MAY PRODUCE A MUCH NEEDED
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WITH SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS...JET INTERACTION AND PASSING SHORTWAVES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PREDOMINATELY VFR TODAY AND THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS 5-10 KT
THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE. MAY SEE AN ISOLATED SHRA OR TSRA IN VC OF ABE/RDG BUT
COVERAGE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

MOST TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN AT VFR OVERNIGHT BUT PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP AT THE USUAL FOG-PRONE TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLE MORNING MVFR FOG. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS...BETTER CHANCES ACROSS RDG/ABE.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS FOLLOWED BY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING WAS CANCELLED AS WINDS ARE BELOW 20 KT AND SEAS 4 FT OR
LESS.

DEBATED ON WHETHER OR NOT TO ISSUE A SCA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FOR A PERIOD LATE IN THE DAY TODAY
AND WAVES WILL RESPOND ACCORDINGLY. OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY MARINE
HEADLINE SINCE THE WIND FIELD WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER THIS AFTERNOON
THAN YESTERDAY, SO NEAR-SHORE GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE BELOW 25 KT.
WINDS WILL BE STRONGER A FEW MILES OFFSHORE BUT MIXING WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER DUE TO THE COOLER WATERS. SEAS TONIGHT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE AROUND 4 FT IN THE COASTAL ATLANTIC.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
INPLACE. GUSTS MAY REACH 25 KNOTS WITH SEAS REACHING 5 FEET ON
THE OCEAN WATERS. STILL DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A SCA
ON THIS SHIFT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD BE BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS A WEAKER PRESSURE PATTERN SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOP 10 WARMEST MAY WILL OCCUR IN LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

THE FIRST 25 DAYS OF MAY IN OUR FORECAST AREA WERE AVERAGING
ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

RUNNING THE NUMBERS FROM THE FCST THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH WE
FIND THE FOLLOWING.

FOR PHILADELPHIA...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1874.
PROJECTING A MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 69 TO 70 RISING FROM
THE CURRENT VALUE OF 67.8, AT LEAST 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
HEADING FOR MOST LIKELY THE THIRD WARMEST MAY ON RECORD. WARMEST
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN MAY ON RECORD WAS 70.8 IN 1991. THEN 69.2
2004 AND 68.2 IN 2012.

FOR ALLENTOWN...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1922. THE MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IS CURRENTLY 63.9 DEGREES. IT IS LIKELY TO
INCREASE BY A DEGREE OR TWO LATER THIS WEEK, LEADING TO A TOP 10
WARMEST MAY THIS YEAR AT ALLENTOWN. THE WARMEST AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE IN MAY WAS 67.2 BACK IN 1991.

FOR WILMINGTON.... THE MONTH OF MAY IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE
TOP 5- 10 WARMEST. THE CURRENT MONTHLY TEMPERATURE IS 65.8 DEGREES
AND SHOULD RISE A DEGREE OR TWO BY MONTHS END. THE WARMEST MAY WAS
IN 1896 WHERE THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 70.1 DEGREES. IN 1991
THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 69.1 DEGREES.

FOR ATLANTIC CITY... THE MONTH IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE TOP
THREE WARMEST MAYS. CURRENTLY, THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE
MONTH IS 64.5 DEGREES AND IS LIKELY TO RISE A DEGREE TOR TWO BY
MONTHS END. THE WARMEST MAY WAS BACK IN 2004 WHERE THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE REACHED 66.9 DEGREES. IN 1991 THE MONTHLY AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE WAS 66 DEGREES. BOTH 2011 AND 2012 SAW A MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 65 DEGREES.

NORMAL FIRST DATE OF 90 OR HIGHER.

PHILADELPHIA MAY 29 ALLENTOWN MAY 30 WILMINGTON JUNE 4 ATLANTIC
CITY JUNE 11.

*************************************************************

HERE IS OUR ANNUAL LOOK AS TO HOW HOT, HOT, HOT THE SUMMER WILL
BE BASED ON PAST PERFORMANCES.

A FULL FLEDGED EL NINO IS UNDERWAY IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. ALL
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS KEEP IT GOING, THE DIFFERENCES
THAT EXIST ARE TO ITS STRENGTH THROUGH THIS UPCOMING SUMMER. THE
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS ARE AVERAGING A MODERATE EL NINO
FOR THE COMBINED SUMMER MONTHS. SOME MODELS, INCLUDING THE CFS2
AND ECMWF ARE PREDICTING A STRONG EL NINO. IN THE CPC MONITORING
EL NINO ERA STARTING SINCE 1950, THE HIGHEST (WARMEST) SUMMER
ANOMALY RECORDED WAS +1.5C (NEAR OR AT THE THRESHOLD FOR STRONG EL
NINOS) DURING THE SUMMER OF 1997.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL REALLY SEAL THE DEAL THAT THIS MAY WILL
BE UNSEASONABLY WARM IN PHILADELPHIA. IT "MAY" EVEN BE A TOP THREE
WARMEST. THIS FOLLOWS ON THE HEELS OF AN UNSEASONABLY WARM APRIL.
SINCE 1872, THE COMBINATION OF BOTH WARM (TOP THIRD OF ALL YEARS)
APRILS AND MAYS HAS ONLY OCCURRED TWENTY-THREE TIMES. BUT IT HAS
OCCURRED ELEVEN TIMES SINCE 1990 AND SIX OF THE LAST SEVEN
SPRINGS.

SO WE SCOURED THE CLIMATE RECORDS TO FIND BUDDING OR IN PROGRESS
EL NINOS THAT COINCIDED WITH BOTH WARM APRILS AND MAYS LOCALLY IN
THE CPC MONITORING ERA. WE FOUND THREE PAST SUMMERS THAT MET THE
CRITERIA. THE ONE SIGN IS THAT ALL THREE ANALOG SUMMERS WERE
WETTER THAN NORMAL, HOPEFULLY KEEPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS FROM
INTENSIFYING FURTHER.

THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE PREDICTIONS FOR THIS
UPCOMING SUMMER HAS WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER EXPECTED
IN OUR AREA. THE INTERNATIONAL MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE
SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC PREDICTING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION.

THE ANALOGS FOR PHILADELPHIA ARE:

YEAR    JUNE AVG   JULY AVG   AUGUST AVG   SUMMER AVG   SUMMER PCPN

1969      73.4        75.1      75.2         74.6        18.30
1977      68.6        77.8      76.2         74.2        15.50
1991      75.7        79.0      79.0         77.9        12.01
AVG       72.6        77.3      76.8         75.6        15.27

1981-
2010      73.3        78.1      76.6         76.0        11.28
NORMAL

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR OUR FORECAST AREA IS FOR EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/KLEIN
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...GIGI/HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLEIN
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLEIN
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 260742
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
342 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORTENED WORK
WEEK...WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IS CURRENTLY RIDING NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME SHRA. NO THUNDER SO FAR AS WARM AIR
ALOFT IS KEEPING INSTABILITY IN CHECK. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THIS MORNING...WITH A LULL IN ACTIVITY
DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP TO INCREASE CAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...BUT A TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING THROUGH MIDAFTERNOON AND
THUS WILL KEEP POPS AT THE LOWER END OF CHANCE. THIS WILL CHANGE
TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY AS A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE LIKELY POPS SPREADING ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AS A RESULT.

SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS UP OVER MOST OF
OHIO. THINK THAT BETTER MIDLEVEL FLOW AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
REALIZED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...TOWARDS THE MIDDLE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
HOWEVER STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD PROPAGATE TOWARDS THE WV/OH
BORDER LATE TODAY WITH SOME STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. WILL MENTION POTENTIAL IN HWO BUT DO NOT FORESEE A
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE OUTBREAK. STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AS WELL. PWATS IN THE 1.5 TO 1.75 RANGE
ARE NEAR THE HIGH END OF CLIMATOLOGY...AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL
LIKELY EXCEED 10K FEET TONIGHT. IT DOES APPEAR THAT STORMS WILL
MOVE WITH SUFFICIENT SPEED TO DETER EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE
MOST PART...BUT POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED.

TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY TWEAKED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY TODAY TO GET
MORE IN LINE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS. LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR
TONIGHT.  CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND SHIFT EASTWARD. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER
THE REGION ALLOWED BY SOUTHWEST FLOW. THEREFORE...CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS WERE MAINTAINED AND ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE.

A LULL IN PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
AS BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UNDER A WEAK RIDGE IN THE WAKE OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES RISE AGAIN ON SATURDAY SUPPORTED BY AN
APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY AND A WEAK SPLIT FLOW ALOFT. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SAG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
AS PREDICTED BY ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS.

FORECASTED TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VARIOUS LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS AGREE ON STUBBORN BOUNDARY LAID
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE CHANCE
POPS WERE PRESERVED WITH THE SUPPORT OF A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER
OVER THE OUTCOME OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST IN
TERMS OF MAGNITUDE...POSITION...AND TIMING. THEREFORE PERSISTENCE
WAS HEAVILY USED IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AND LOW CHANCE
POPS WERE INTRODUCED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR IS FORECAST IN THE MEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT THERE
WILL BE OPPORTUNTIES FOR BRIEF RESTRICTIONS. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...MOST NUMEROUS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
WITH UNCERTAIN TIMING...HAVE ELECTED TO CONTINUE WITH VCSH/VCTS
FOR THE BULK OF THE TAF PERIOD. BRIEF DROPS TO MVFR AND EVEN IFR
CIG/VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWER OR STORM...BUT DID NOT
WANT TO INCLUDE LONG TEMPO PERIODS. EXPECT COVERAGE TO WANE PAST
SUNSET AS INSTABILITY DROPS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10
KNOTS OR LESS OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.  CL

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 260742
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
342 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORTENED WORK
WEEK...WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IS CURRENTLY RIDING NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME SHRA. NO THUNDER SO FAR AS WARM AIR
ALOFT IS KEEPING INSTABILITY IN CHECK. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THIS MORNING...WITH A LULL IN ACTIVITY
DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP TO INCREASE CAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...BUT A TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING THROUGH MIDAFTERNOON AND
THUS WILL KEEP POPS AT THE LOWER END OF CHANCE. THIS WILL CHANGE
TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY AS A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE LIKELY POPS SPREADING ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AS A RESULT.

SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS UP OVER MOST OF
OHIO. THINK THAT BETTER MIDLEVEL FLOW AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
REALIZED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...TOWARDS THE MIDDLE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
HOWEVER STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD PROPAGATE TOWARDS THE WV/OH
BORDER LATE TODAY WITH SOME STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. WILL MENTION POTENTIAL IN HWO BUT DO NOT FORESEE A
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE OUTBREAK. STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AS WELL. PWATS IN THE 1.5 TO 1.75 RANGE
ARE NEAR THE HIGH END OF CLIMATOLOGY...AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL
LIKELY EXCEED 10K FEET TONIGHT. IT DOES APPEAR THAT STORMS WILL
MOVE WITH SUFFICIENT SPEED TO DETER EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE
MOST PART...BUT POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED.

TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY TWEAKED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY TODAY TO GET
MORE IN LINE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS. LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR
TONIGHT.  CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND SHIFT EASTWARD. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER
THE REGION ALLOWED BY SOUTHWEST FLOW. THEREFORE...CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS WERE MAINTAINED AND ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE.

A LULL IN PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
AS BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UNDER A WEAK RIDGE IN THE WAKE OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES RISE AGAIN ON SATURDAY SUPPORTED BY AN
APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY AND A WEAK SPLIT FLOW ALOFT. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SAG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
AS PREDICTED BY ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS.

FORECASTED TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VARIOUS LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS AGREE ON STUBBORN BOUNDARY LAID
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE CHANCE
POPS WERE PRESERVED WITH THE SUPPORT OF A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER
OVER THE OUTCOME OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST IN
TERMS OF MAGNITUDE...POSITION...AND TIMING. THEREFORE PERSISTENCE
WAS HEAVILY USED IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AND LOW CHANCE
POPS WERE INTRODUCED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR IS FORECAST IN THE MEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT THERE
WILL BE OPPORTUNTIES FOR BRIEF RESTRICTIONS. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...MOST NUMEROUS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
WITH UNCERTAIN TIMING...HAVE ELECTED TO CONTINUE WITH VCSH/VCTS
FOR THE BULK OF THE TAF PERIOD. BRIEF DROPS TO MVFR AND EVEN IFR
CIG/VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWER OR STORM...BUT DID NOT
WANT TO INCLUDE LONG TEMPO PERIODS. EXPECT COVERAGE TO WANE PAST
SUNSET AS INSTABILITY DROPS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10
KNOTS OR LESS OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.  CL

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 260742
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
342 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORTENED WORK
WEEK...WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IS CURRENTLY RIDING NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME SHRA. NO THUNDER SO FAR AS WARM AIR
ALOFT IS KEEPING INSTABILITY IN CHECK. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THIS MORNING...WITH A LULL IN ACTIVITY
DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP TO INCREASE CAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...BUT A TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING THROUGH MIDAFTERNOON AND
THUS WILL KEEP POPS AT THE LOWER END OF CHANCE. THIS WILL CHANGE
TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY AS A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE LIKELY POPS SPREADING ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AS A RESULT.

SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS UP OVER MOST OF
OHIO. THINK THAT BETTER MIDLEVEL FLOW AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
REALIZED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...TOWARDS THE MIDDLE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
HOWEVER STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD PROPAGATE TOWARDS THE WV/OH
BORDER LATE TODAY WITH SOME STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. WILL MENTION POTENTIAL IN HWO BUT DO NOT FORESEE A
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE OUTBREAK. STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AS WELL. PWATS IN THE 1.5 TO 1.75 RANGE
ARE NEAR THE HIGH END OF CLIMATOLOGY...AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL
LIKELY EXCEED 10K FEET TONIGHT. IT DOES APPEAR THAT STORMS WILL
MOVE WITH SUFFICIENT SPEED TO DETER EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE
MOST PART...BUT POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED.

TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY TWEAKED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY TODAY TO GET
MORE IN LINE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS. LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR
TONIGHT.  CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND SHIFT EASTWARD. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER
THE REGION ALLOWED BY SOUTHWEST FLOW. THEREFORE...CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS WERE MAINTAINED AND ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE.

A LULL IN PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
AS BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UNDER A WEAK RIDGE IN THE WAKE OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES RISE AGAIN ON SATURDAY SUPPORTED BY AN
APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY AND A WEAK SPLIT FLOW ALOFT. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SAG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
AS PREDICTED BY ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS.

FORECASTED TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VARIOUS LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS AGREE ON STUBBORN BOUNDARY LAID
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE CHANCE
POPS WERE PRESERVED WITH THE SUPPORT OF A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER
OVER THE OUTCOME OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST IN
TERMS OF MAGNITUDE...POSITION...AND TIMING. THEREFORE PERSISTENCE
WAS HEAVILY USED IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AND LOW CHANCE
POPS WERE INTRODUCED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR IS FORECAST IN THE MEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT THERE
WILL BE OPPORTUNTIES FOR BRIEF RESTRICTIONS. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...MOST NUMEROUS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
WITH UNCERTAIN TIMING...HAVE ELECTED TO CONTINUE WITH VCSH/VCTS
FOR THE BULK OF THE TAF PERIOD. BRIEF DROPS TO MVFR AND EVEN IFR
CIG/VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWER OR STORM...BUT DID NOT
WANT TO INCLUDE LONG TEMPO PERIODS. EXPECT COVERAGE TO WANE PAST
SUNSET AS INSTABILITY DROPS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10
KNOTS OR LESS OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.  CL

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 260742
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
342 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORTENED WORK
WEEK...WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IS CURRENTLY RIDING NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME SHRA. NO THUNDER SO FAR AS WARM AIR
ALOFT IS KEEPING INSTABILITY IN CHECK. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THIS MORNING...WITH A LULL IN ACTIVITY
DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP TO INCREASE CAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...BUT A TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING THROUGH MIDAFTERNOON AND
THUS WILL KEEP POPS AT THE LOWER END OF CHANCE. THIS WILL CHANGE
TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY AS A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE LIKELY POPS SPREADING ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AS A RESULT.

SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS UP OVER MOST OF
OHIO. THINK THAT BETTER MIDLEVEL FLOW AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
REALIZED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...TOWARDS THE MIDDLE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
HOWEVER STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD PROPAGATE TOWARDS THE WV/OH
BORDER LATE TODAY WITH SOME STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. WILL MENTION POTENTIAL IN HWO BUT DO NOT FORESEE A
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE OUTBREAK. STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AS WELL. PWATS IN THE 1.5 TO 1.75 RANGE
ARE NEAR THE HIGH END OF CLIMATOLOGY...AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL
LIKELY EXCEED 10K FEET TONIGHT. IT DOES APPEAR THAT STORMS WILL
MOVE WITH SUFFICIENT SPEED TO DETER EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE
MOST PART...BUT POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED.

TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY TWEAKED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY TODAY TO GET
MORE IN LINE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS. LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR
TONIGHT.  CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND SHIFT EASTWARD. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER
THE REGION ALLOWED BY SOUTHWEST FLOW. THEREFORE...CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS WERE MAINTAINED AND ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE.

A LULL IN PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
AS BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UNDER A WEAK RIDGE IN THE WAKE OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES RISE AGAIN ON SATURDAY SUPPORTED BY AN
APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY AND A WEAK SPLIT FLOW ALOFT. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SAG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
AS PREDICTED BY ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS.

FORECASTED TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VARIOUS LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS AGREE ON STUBBORN BOUNDARY LAID
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE CHANCE
POPS WERE PRESERVED WITH THE SUPPORT OF A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER
OVER THE OUTCOME OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST IN
TERMS OF MAGNITUDE...POSITION...AND TIMING. THEREFORE PERSISTENCE
WAS HEAVILY USED IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AND LOW CHANCE
POPS WERE INTRODUCED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR IS FORECAST IN THE MEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT THERE
WILL BE OPPORTUNTIES FOR BRIEF RESTRICTIONS. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...MOST NUMEROUS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
WITH UNCERTAIN TIMING...HAVE ELECTED TO CONTINUE WITH VCSH/VCTS
FOR THE BULK OF THE TAF PERIOD. BRIEF DROPS TO MVFR AND EVEN IFR
CIG/VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWER OR STORM...BUT DID NOT
WANT TO INCLUDE LONG TEMPO PERIODS. EXPECT COVERAGE TO WANE PAST
SUNSET AS INSTABILITY DROPS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10
KNOTS OR LESS OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.  CL

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 260742
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
342 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORTENED WORK
WEEK...WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IS CURRENTLY RIDING NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME SHRA. NO THUNDER SO FAR AS WARM AIR
ALOFT IS KEEPING INSTABILITY IN CHECK. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THIS MORNING...WITH A LULL IN ACTIVITY
DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP TO INCREASE CAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...BUT A TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING THROUGH MIDAFTERNOON AND
THUS WILL KEEP POPS AT THE LOWER END OF CHANCE. THIS WILL CHANGE
TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY AS A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE LIKELY POPS SPREADING ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AS A RESULT.

SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS UP OVER MOST OF
OHIO. THINK THAT BETTER MIDLEVEL FLOW AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
REALIZED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...TOWARDS THE MIDDLE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
HOWEVER STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD PROPAGATE TOWARDS THE WV/OH
BORDER LATE TODAY WITH SOME STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. WILL MENTION POTENTIAL IN HWO BUT DO NOT FORESEE A
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE OUTBREAK. STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AS WELL. PWATS IN THE 1.5 TO 1.75 RANGE
ARE NEAR THE HIGH END OF CLIMATOLOGY...AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL
LIKELY EXCEED 10K FEET TONIGHT. IT DOES APPEAR THAT STORMS WILL
MOVE WITH SUFFICIENT SPEED TO DETER EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE
MOST PART...BUT POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED.

TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY TWEAKED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY TODAY TO GET
MORE IN LINE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS. LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR
TONIGHT.  CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND SHIFT EASTWARD. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER
THE REGION ALLOWED BY SOUTHWEST FLOW. THEREFORE...CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS WERE MAINTAINED AND ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE.

A LULL IN PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
AS BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UNDER A WEAK RIDGE IN THE WAKE OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES RISE AGAIN ON SATURDAY SUPPORTED BY AN
APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY AND A WEAK SPLIT FLOW ALOFT. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SAG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
AS PREDICTED BY ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS.

FORECASTED TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VARIOUS LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS AGREE ON STUBBORN BOUNDARY LAID
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE CHANCE
POPS WERE PRESERVED WITH THE SUPPORT OF A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER
OVER THE OUTCOME OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST IN
TERMS OF MAGNITUDE...POSITION...AND TIMING. THEREFORE PERSISTENCE
WAS HEAVILY USED IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AND LOW CHANCE
POPS WERE INTRODUCED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR IS FORECAST IN THE MEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT THERE
WILL BE OPPORTUNTIES FOR BRIEF RESTRICTIONS. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...MOST NUMEROUS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
WITH UNCERTAIN TIMING...HAVE ELECTED TO CONTINUE WITH VCSH/VCTS
FOR THE BULK OF THE TAF PERIOD. BRIEF DROPS TO MVFR AND EVEN IFR
CIG/VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWER OR STORM...BUT DID NOT
WANT TO INCLUDE LONG TEMPO PERIODS. EXPECT COVERAGE TO WANE PAST
SUNSET AS INSTABILITY DROPS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10
KNOTS OR LESS OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.  CL

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 260742
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
342 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORTENED WORK
WEEK...WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IS CURRENTLY RIDING NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME SHRA. NO THUNDER SO FAR AS WARM AIR
ALOFT IS KEEPING INSTABILITY IN CHECK. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THIS MORNING...WITH A LULL IN ACTIVITY
DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP TO INCREASE CAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...BUT A TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING THROUGH MIDAFTERNOON AND
THUS WILL KEEP POPS AT THE LOWER END OF CHANCE. THIS WILL CHANGE
TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY AS A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE LIKELY POPS SPREADING ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AS A RESULT.

SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS UP OVER MOST OF
OHIO. THINK THAT BETTER MIDLEVEL FLOW AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
REALIZED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...TOWARDS THE MIDDLE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
HOWEVER STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD PROPAGATE TOWARDS THE WV/OH
BORDER LATE TODAY WITH SOME STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. WILL MENTION POTENTIAL IN HWO BUT DO NOT FORESEE A
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE OUTBREAK. STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AS WELL. PWATS IN THE 1.5 TO 1.75 RANGE
ARE NEAR THE HIGH END OF CLIMATOLOGY...AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL
LIKELY EXCEED 10K FEET TONIGHT. IT DOES APPEAR THAT STORMS WILL
MOVE WITH SUFFICIENT SPEED TO DETER EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE
MOST PART...BUT POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED.

TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY TWEAKED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY TODAY TO GET
MORE IN LINE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS. LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR
TONIGHT.  CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND SHIFT EASTWARD. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER
THE REGION ALLOWED BY SOUTHWEST FLOW. THEREFORE...CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS WERE MAINTAINED AND ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE.

A LULL IN PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
AS BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UNDER A WEAK RIDGE IN THE WAKE OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES RISE AGAIN ON SATURDAY SUPPORTED BY AN
APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY AND A WEAK SPLIT FLOW ALOFT. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SAG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
AS PREDICTED BY ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS.

FORECASTED TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VARIOUS LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS AGREE ON STUBBORN BOUNDARY LAID
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE CHANCE
POPS WERE PRESERVED WITH THE SUPPORT OF A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER
OVER THE OUTCOME OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST IN
TERMS OF MAGNITUDE...POSITION...AND TIMING. THEREFORE PERSISTENCE
WAS HEAVILY USED IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AND LOW CHANCE
POPS WERE INTRODUCED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR IS FORECAST IN THE MEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT THERE
WILL BE OPPORTUNTIES FOR BRIEF RESTRICTIONS. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...MOST NUMEROUS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
WITH UNCERTAIN TIMING...HAVE ELECTED TO CONTINUE WITH VCSH/VCTS
FOR THE BULK OF THE TAF PERIOD. BRIEF DROPS TO MVFR AND EVEN IFR
CIG/VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWER OR STORM...BUT DID NOT
WANT TO INCLUDE LONG TEMPO PERIODS. EXPECT COVERAGE TO WANE PAST
SUNSET AS INSTABILITY DROPS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10
KNOTS OR LESS OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.  CL

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KLWX 260704
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
304 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING WARM HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE SURFACE
HIGH AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TONIGHT. A SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE UPPER-
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL USHER IN MORE MOISTURE DURING THIS
TIME. MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPS HAVE BEEN TWEAKED DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES DUE TO A
BKN/OVC DECK OF HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THAT WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FOR MOST AREAS SINCE THERE WILL NOT BE A
STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM. HOWEVER...THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ALONG
WITH LOWER HEIGHTS BEHIND THE DEPARTING RIDGE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
COMBINE WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95
AND FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. LOWER HEIGHTS
AND MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE OVER THESE AREAS. LATEST
GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS A THETA E RIDGE SETTING UP FOR LOCATIONS JUST
NORTH AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95. SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY WEAK AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MARGINAL DUE TO HIGH AND
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. THEREFORE...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...CAUSING WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS
OF MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWEST FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SETUP IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. IN FACT...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME. THIS SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE A BIT
MORE...ALLOWING FOR LOWER HEIGHTS OVER OUR AREA.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THANKS TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW
AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC. A BKN/OVC DECK OF HIGH
AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ALONG
WITH MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL LEAD TO
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD
COMPARED TO TUESDAY DUE TO LOWER HEIGHTS. SHEAR PROFILES MAY BE A
BIT STRONGER...BUT STILL RELATIVELY WEAK. HOWEVER...LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE A MAX IN
INSTABILITY NEAR AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS INTO NORTH-
CENTRAL MARYLAND. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. MID
AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO BE THICKER TO THE WEST WITH
MORE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE FURTHER EAST ACROSS THESE AREAS. SHOULD
THIS DEVELOP...THEN INSTABILITY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE HIGH WHICH
WOULD INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AS OF
NOW...CERTAINTY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST BUT THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

MOST CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY...BUT IT
WILL REMAIN WARM AND QUITE HUMID THANKS TO THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC LOW IN SE CANADA WILL DRAG AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
LATE THURS INTO FRI MORNING...EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING BY SAT
MORNING AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING THE FLOW ALOFT IS
PUSHED OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST AS THE RIDGE TAKES CONTROL YET
AGAIN OF THE EASTERN US. MAINTAINING UPPER END CHC POPS THRU THESE
TWO DAYS TO ACCOUNT FOR TSTM POTENTIAL...SFC HIGH SITTING OFFSHORE
WILL KEEP WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE
REGION...RESULTING IN DECENT INSTABILITY VALUES. SHEAR ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE...AND AS SUCH THINK ANY SVR THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL.
WHILE CONFIDENCE EXISTS THAT TSTMS WILL DEVELOP...ESP DURING THE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS...TRYING TO PINPOINT LOCATION AND TIMING STILL
TOO EARLY SO WILL KEEP SCT WORDING FOR NOW. HAVE ONLY ISO SHOWERS
IN THURS/FRI NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES SAT...NEARING THE WESTERN AREAS BY
LATE SAT. COULD SEE SHOWERS/TSTMS POP UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE
WARM/MOIST ATMO...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING REALLY ORGANIZED AT
THIS TIME. THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY AS WELL NEAR THE
MASON-DIXON WITH THE LOSS YET AGAIN OF ANY UPPER LVL FLOW. MODEL
DIVERGENCE IN THE 00Z SOLUTIONS WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS
FRONT...WITH THE GFS DEVELOPING A MORE DEFINED SFC LOW ALONG THE
FRONT AND TRACKING IT INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY. AS SUCH WILL KEEP
CHC POPS IN...THOUGH WITH THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS HINTING AT THE
FRONT STALLING IN THE VICINITY...IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY WE WILL
SEE PCPN OCCURRING SUN-MON WITH THIS BOUNDARY.

TEMPS ABV NORMAL THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH 850MB TEMPS
HOVERING BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES CELSIUS. DESPITE THE WARMER
TEMPS..EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED SPOTS TO REACH 90 DUE TO ON GOING
PCPN/CLOUD COVER. LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD IN THE 60S AND 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME THROUGH THIS EVENING.
A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED DUE TO A LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING
MECHANISM SO MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. HOWEVER...BRIEF SUBVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT MOVES OVER A TERMINAL.

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. COVERAGE MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD DUE TO LOWER
HEIGHTS BEHIND A DEPARTING RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

VARYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR OR LOWER PSBL WITH ANY SHOWER/TSTM. ANY TSTM COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS...WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS OUTSIDE OF PCPN
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND AND
THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY
SOUTH OF SANDY POINT AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE GRADIENT WIND TODAY FOR
THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC AND NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL APPROACH SCA CRITERIA...BUT THE FORECAST HAS WINDS
CAPPED AT 15 KNOTS FOR NOW DUE TO A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT
COMPARED TO MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE
TODAY SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. THERE MAY BE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO
LOWER HEIGHTS BEHIND A DEPARTING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT CAN BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBYS BELOW ONE MILE AT
TIMES.

EXPECTING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THURS AND FRI FOR MOST OF THE ZONES
WITH WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. MID CHESAPEAKE BAY COULD SEE
GUSTS TO 20 KTS EACH AFTN THRU FRI DUE TO SOUTHERN CHANNELING.

A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT YET AGAIN WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON
SAT WILL INCREASE WINDS...WITH PSBL SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS SAT-
SAT NIGHT.

OUTSIDE OF THE SYNOPTIC FLOW...EACH DAY WILL BRING A CHC FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS...WHICH COULD ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ531-538-
     539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-
     537-540>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...BJL/SEARS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 260704
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
304 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING WARM HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE SURFACE
HIGH AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TONIGHT. A SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE UPPER-
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL USHER IN MORE MOISTURE DURING THIS
TIME. MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPS HAVE BEEN TWEAKED DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES DUE TO A
BKN/OVC DECK OF HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THAT WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FOR MOST AREAS SINCE THERE WILL NOT BE A
STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM. HOWEVER...THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ALONG
WITH LOWER HEIGHTS BEHIND THE DEPARTING RIDGE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
COMBINE WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95
AND FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. LOWER HEIGHTS
AND MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE OVER THESE AREAS. LATEST
GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS A THETA E RIDGE SETTING UP FOR LOCATIONS JUST
NORTH AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95. SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY WEAK AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MARGINAL DUE TO HIGH AND
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. THEREFORE...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...CAUSING WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS
OF MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWEST FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SETUP IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. IN FACT...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME. THIS SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE A BIT
MORE...ALLOWING FOR LOWER HEIGHTS OVER OUR AREA.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THANKS TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW
AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC. A BKN/OVC DECK OF HIGH
AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ALONG
WITH MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL LEAD TO
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD
COMPARED TO TUESDAY DUE TO LOWER HEIGHTS. SHEAR PROFILES MAY BE A
BIT STRONGER...BUT STILL RELATIVELY WEAK. HOWEVER...LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE A MAX IN
INSTABILITY NEAR AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS INTO NORTH-
CENTRAL MARYLAND. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. MID
AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO BE THICKER TO THE WEST WITH
MORE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE FURTHER EAST ACROSS THESE AREAS. SHOULD
THIS DEVELOP...THEN INSTABILITY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE HIGH WHICH
WOULD INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AS OF
NOW...CERTAINTY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST BUT THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

MOST CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY...BUT IT
WILL REMAIN WARM AND QUITE HUMID THANKS TO THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC LOW IN SE CANADA WILL DRAG AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
LATE THURS INTO FRI MORNING...EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING BY SAT
MORNING AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING THE FLOW ALOFT IS
PUSHED OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST AS THE RIDGE TAKES CONTROL YET
AGAIN OF THE EASTERN US. MAINTAINING UPPER END CHC POPS THRU THESE
TWO DAYS TO ACCOUNT FOR TSTM POTENTIAL...SFC HIGH SITTING OFFSHORE
WILL KEEP WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE
REGION...RESULTING IN DECENT INSTABILITY VALUES. SHEAR ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE...AND AS SUCH THINK ANY SVR THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL.
WHILE CONFIDENCE EXISTS THAT TSTMS WILL DEVELOP...ESP DURING THE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS...TRYING TO PINPOINT LOCATION AND TIMING STILL
TOO EARLY SO WILL KEEP SCT WORDING FOR NOW. HAVE ONLY ISO SHOWERS
IN THURS/FRI NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES SAT...NEARING THE WESTERN AREAS BY
LATE SAT. COULD SEE SHOWERS/TSTMS POP UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE
WARM/MOIST ATMO...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING REALLY ORGANIZED AT
THIS TIME. THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY AS WELL NEAR THE
MASON-DIXON WITH THE LOSS YET AGAIN OF ANY UPPER LVL FLOW. MODEL
DIVERGENCE IN THE 00Z SOLUTIONS WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS
FRONT...WITH THE GFS DEVELOPING A MORE DEFINED SFC LOW ALONG THE
FRONT AND TRACKING IT INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY. AS SUCH WILL KEEP
CHC POPS IN...THOUGH WITH THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS HINTING AT THE
FRONT STALLING IN THE VICINITY...IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY WE WILL
SEE PCPN OCCURRING SUN-MON WITH THIS BOUNDARY.

TEMPS ABV NORMAL THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH 850MB TEMPS
HOVERING BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES CELSIUS. DESPITE THE WARMER
TEMPS..EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED SPOTS TO REACH 90 DUE TO ON GOING
PCPN/CLOUD COVER. LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD IN THE 60S AND 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME THROUGH THIS EVENING.
A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED DUE TO A LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING
MECHANISM SO MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. HOWEVER...BRIEF SUBVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT MOVES OVER A TERMINAL.

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. COVERAGE MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD DUE TO LOWER
HEIGHTS BEHIND A DEPARTING RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

VARYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR OR LOWER PSBL WITH ANY SHOWER/TSTM. ANY TSTM COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS...WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS OUTSIDE OF PCPN
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND AND
THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY
SOUTH OF SANDY POINT AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE GRADIENT WIND TODAY FOR
THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC AND NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL APPROACH SCA CRITERIA...BUT THE FORECAST HAS WINDS
CAPPED AT 15 KNOTS FOR NOW DUE TO A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT
COMPARED TO MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE
TODAY SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. THERE MAY BE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO
LOWER HEIGHTS BEHIND A DEPARTING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT CAN BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBYS BELOW ONE MILE AT
TIMES.

EXPECTING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THURS AND FRI FOR MOST OF THE ZONES
WITH WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. MID CHESAPEAKE BAY COULD SEE
GUSTS TO 20 KTS EACH AFTN THRU FRI DUE TO SOUTHERN CHANNELING.

A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT YET AGAIN WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON
SAT WILL INCREASE WINDS...WITH PSBL SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS SAT-
SAT NIGHT.

OUTSIDE OF THE SYNOPTIC FLOW...EACH DAY WILL BRING A CHC FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS...WHICH COULD ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ531-538-
     539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-
     537-540>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...BJL/SEARS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 260704
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
304 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING WARM HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE SURFACE
HIGH AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TONIGHT. A SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE UPPER-
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL USHER IN MORE MOISTURE DURING THIS
TIME. MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPS HAVE BEEN TWEAKED DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES DUE TO A
BKN/OVC DECK OF HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THAT WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FOR MOST AREAS SINCE THERE WILL NOT BE A
STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM. HOWEVER...THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ALONG
WITH LOWER HEIGHTS BEHIND THE DEPARTING RIDGE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
COMBINE WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95
AND FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. LOWER HEIGHTS
AND MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE OVER THESE AREAS. LATEST
GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS A THETA E RIDGE SETTING UP FOR LOCATIONS JUST
NORTH AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95. SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY WEAK AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MARGINAL DUE TO HIGH AND
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. THEREFORE...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...CAUSING WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS
OF MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWEST FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SETUP IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. IN FACT...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME. THIS SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE A BIT
MORE...ALLOWING FOR LOWER HEIGHTS OVER OUR AREA.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THANKS TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW
AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC. A BKN/OVC DECK OF HIGH
AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ALONG
WITH MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL LEAD TO
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD
COMPARED TO TUESDAY DUE TO LOWER HEIGHTS. SHEAR PROFILES MAY BE A
BIT STRONGER...BUT STILL RELATIVELY WEAK. HOWEVER...LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE A MAX IN
INSTABILITY NEAR AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS INTO NORTH-
CENTRAL MARYLAND. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. MID
AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO BE THICKER TO THE WEST WITH
MORE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE FURTHER EAST ACROSS THESE AREAS. SHOULD
THIS DEVELOP...THEN INSTABILITY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE HIGH WHICH
WOULD INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AS OF
NOW...CERTAINTY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST BUT THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

MOST CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY...BUT IT
WILL REMAIN WARM AND QUITE HUMID THANKS TO THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC LOW IN SE CANADA WILL DRAG AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
LATE THURS INTO FRI MORNING...EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING BY SAT
MORNING AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING THE FLOW ALOFT IS
PUSHED OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST AS THE RIDGE TAKES CONTROL YET
AGAIN OF THE EASTERN US. MAINTAINING UPPER END CHC POPS THRU THESE
TWO DAYS TO ACCOUNT FOR TSTM POTENTIAL...SFC HIGH SITTING OFFSHORE
WILL KEEP WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE
REGION...RESULTING IN DECENT INSTABILITY VALUES. SHEAR ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE...AND AS SUCH THINK ANY SVR THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL.
WHILE CONFIDENCE EXISTS THAT TSTMS WILL DEVELOP...ESP DURING THE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS...TRYING TO PINPOINT LOCATION AND TIMING STILL
TOO EARLY SO WILL KEEP SCT WORDING FOR NOW. HAVE ONLY ISO SHOWERS
IN THURS/FRI NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES SAT...NEARING THE WESTERN AREAS BY
LATE SAT. COULD SEE SHOWERS/TSTMS POP UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE
WARM/MOIST ATMO...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING REALLY ORGANIZED AT
THIS TIME. THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY AS WELL NEAR THE
MASON-DIXON WITH THE LOSS YET AGAIN OF ANY UPPER LVL FLOW. MODEL
DIVERGENCE IN THE 00Z SOLUTIONS WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS
FRONT...WITH THE GFS DEVELOPING A MORE DEFINED SFC LOW ALONG THE
FRONT AND TRACKING IT INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY. AS SUCH WILL KEEP
CHC POPS IN...THOUGH WITH THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS HINTING AT THE
FRONT STALLING IN THE VICINITY...IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY WE WILL
SEE PCPN OCCURRING SUN-MON WITH THIS BOUNDARY.

TEMPS ABV NORMAL THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH 850MB TEMPS
HOVERING BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES CELSIUS. DESPITE THE WARMER
TEMPS..EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED SPOTS TO REACH 90 DUE TO ON GOING
PCPN/CLOUD COVER. LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD IN THE 60S AND 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME THROUGH THIS EVENING.
A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED DUE TO A LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING
MECHANISM SO MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. HOWEVER...BRIEF SUBVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT MOVES OVER A TERMINAL.

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. COVERAGE MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD DUE TO LOWER
HEIGHTS BEHIND A DEPARTING RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

VARYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR OR LOWER PSBL WITH ANY SHOWER/TSTM. ANY TSTM COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS...WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS OUTSIDE OF PCPN
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND AND
THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY
SOUTH OF SANDY POINT AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE GRADIENT WIND TODAY FOR
THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC AND NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL APPROACH SCA CRITERIA...BUT THE FORECAST HAS WINDS
CAPPED AT 15 KNOTS FOR NOW DUE TO A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT
COMPARED TO MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE
TODAY SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. THERE MAY BE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO
LOWER HEIGHTS BEHIND A DEPARTING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT CAN BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBYS BELOW ONE MILE AT
TIMES.

EXPECTING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THURS AND FRI FOR MOST OF THE ZONES
WITH WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. MID CHESAPEAKE BAY COULD SEE
GUSTS TO 20 KTS EACH AFTN THRU FRI DUE TO SOUTHERN CHANNELING.

A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT YET AGAIN WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON
SAT WILL INCREASE WINDS...WITH PSBL SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS SAT-
SAT NIGHT.

OUTSIDE OF THE SYNOPTIC FLOW...EACH DAY WILL BRING A CHC FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS...WHICH COULD ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ531-538-
     539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-
     537-540>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...BJL/SEARS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 260628
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
228 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SUMMER-LIKE WX PATTERN CONTS W/ BERMUDA HI PRES RMNS STRONG ATTM.
MNLY LGT SSW WNDS OVRNGT. WK TROUGH ALOFT MOVING INTO THE SRN MTNS
THIS EVE GRADUALLY DISSIPATES AS IT TRACKS TO THE NNE THROUGH THE
NGT. SKC E...AND BECOMING PCLDY W. MOST LO TEMPS IN THE L/M60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES THE PREVIEW OF SUMMER THRU THE PRD. MODELS
DVLP A LEE TROF EACH DAY. CONVECTION THAT DVLPS OVR THE MTS WEAKENS
AS IT MOVES E INTO THE PIEDMONT TUE AS AIRMASS OVR MOST OF THE FA
REMAINS CAPPED. KEPT 20-30 DIURNAL POP OVR THE WRN MOST CNTYS. HIGHS
IN THE M-U80S...M70S-L80S CSTL AREAS...COOLEST AT THE BEACHES.

LATEST MODELS AMPLIFY THE SFC TROF AND ARE QUICKER TO BREAK THE CAP
WHICH ALLOWS FOR A MORE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE APPRCHG MSTR FROM
THE OHIO/TN VLLYS BOTH WED AND THURS. CONTINUED SUMMER-LIKE BUT WITH
HIGHER CHCS FOR MAINLY AFTRN/EVE SHWRS/TSTRMS WEST OF THE CHES BAY
WED AND AS FAR E AS THE COASTAL AREAS THURS. GIVEN THE INCRG PW`S
AND LL MSTR...THREATS WILL BE FOR LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS AS STEERING
CRNTS REMAIN WEAK. A TAD COOLER GIVEN MORE CLOUD COVERAGE BUT WITH
MORE HUMIDITY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE L-M80S...XCPT 75-80 AT THE
BEACHES. LOWS IN THE M-U60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
EACH DAY AND TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR TSTMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NW AREAS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN DURING THE
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NW AND
SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A
FAIRLY DRY PERIOD FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
AN INCREASE OF POPS TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. POPS WILL
BE LOWER OVER FAR SE PORTIONS.

GUIDANCE HAS 85H TEMPERATURES GETTING NO HIGHER THAN 16C. CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WILL ALSO HOLD READINGS DOWN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 85 TO 90 INLAND AND UPR
70S TO LWR 80S NEAR THE COAST. IT WILL BE MODERATELY HUMID WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S. LOWS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING S/SW WINDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT WELL INLAND...BUT IS
UNLIKELY TO AFFECT ANY OF THE TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE...BUT
SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF MAINLY LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS IS
EXPECTED WED AND THU (HIGHEST CHANCE ON THU). OUTSIDE OF TSTMS...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL...SOME PATCHY 2-4SM FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE
BY LATE IN THE WEEK DURING THE EARLY AM HRS PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID ATLC COAST
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACRS ONTARIO CANADA. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL PREVAIL...WITH SOME MINOR DIRECTION CHANGES ON A DIURNAL
BASIS (SSE MIDDAY THROUGH EVENING TO SSW OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE
MORNING). PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY AND WED IS TIGHT ENOUGH THAT
WINDS SHOULD AVG 10 TO 15 KT...WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING RESULTING IN GUSTS TO 20 KT. OVERALL STILL FEEL THIS
IS TOO MARGINAL TO RAISE ANY SCA HEADLINES ACRS THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND
BUT BOATING CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE IDEAL AND WAVES IN THE BAY
WILL BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AT 2-3 FT WITH COASTAL SEAS BUILDING TO
3-4 FT. GRADIENT WEAKENS A BIT ON THU...AND WINDS SHOULD BE A FEW
KT LESS OVERALL. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN SOUTHERLY FOR THE MOST PART
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB/MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 260628
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
228 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SUMMER-LIKE WX PATTERN CONTS W/ BERMUDA HI PRES RMNS STRONG ATTM.
MNLY LGT SSW WNDS OVRNGT. WK TROUGH ALOFT MOVING INTO THE SRN MTNS
THIS EVE GRADUALLY DISSIPATES AS IT TRACKS TO THE NNE THROUGH THE
NGT. SKC E...AND BECOMING PCLDY W. MOST LO TEMPS IN THE L/M60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES THE PREVIEW OF SUMMER THRU THE PRD. MODELS
DVLP A LEE TROF EACH DAY. CONVECTION THAT DVLPS OVR THE MTS WEAKENS
AS IT MOVES E INTO THE PIEDMONT TUE AS AIRMASS OVR MOST OF THE FA
REMAINS CAPPED. KEPT 20-30 DIURNAL POP OVR THE WRN MOST CNTYS. HIGHS
IN THE M-U80S...M70S-L80S CSTL AREAS...COOLEST AT THE BEACHES.

LATEST MODELS AMPLIFY THE SFC TROF AND ARE QUICKER TO BREAK THE CAP
WHICH ALLOWS FOR A MORE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE APPRCHG MSTR FROM
THE OHIO/TN VLLYS BOTH WED AND THURS. CONTINUED SUMMER-LIKE BUT WITH
HIGHER CHCS FOR MAINLY AFTRN/EVE SHWRS/TSTRMS WEST OF THE CHES BAY
WED AND AS FAR E AS THE COASTAL AREAS THURS. GIVEN THE INCRG PW`S
AND LL MSTR...THREATS WILL BE FOR LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS AS STEERING
CRNTS REMAIN WEAK. A TAD COOLER GIVEN MORE CLOUD COVERAGE BUT WITH
MORE HUMIDITY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE L-M80S...XCPT 75-80 AT THE
BEACHES. LOWS IN THE M-U60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
EACH DAY AND TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR TSTMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NW AREAS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN DURING THE
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NW AND
SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A
FAIRLY DRY PERIOD FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
AN INCREASE OF POPS TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. POPS WILL
BE LOWER OVER FAR SE PORTIONS.

GUIDANCE HAS 85H TEMPERATURES GETTING NO HIGHER THAN 16C. CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WILL ALSO HOLD READINGS DOWN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 85 TO 90 INLAND AND UPR
70S TO LWR 80S NEAR THE COAST. IT WILL BE MODERATELY HUMID WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S. LOWS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING S/SW WINDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT WELL INLAND...BUT IS
UNLIKELY TO AFFECT ANY OF THE TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE...BUT
SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF MAINLY LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS IS
EXPECTED WED AND THU (HIGHEST CHANCE ON THU). OUTSIDE OF TSTMS...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL...SOME PATCHY 2-4SM FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE
BY LATE IN THE WEEK DURING THE EARLY AM HRS PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID ATLC COAST
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACRS ONTARIO CANADA. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL PREVAIL...WITH SOME MINOR DIRECTION CHANGES ON A DIURNAL
BASIS (SSE MIDDAY THROUGH EVENING TO SSW OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE
MORNING). PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY AND WED IS TIGHT ENOUGH THAT
WINDS SHOULD AVG 10 TO 15 KT...WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING RESULTING IN GUSTS TO 20 KT. OVERALL STILL FEEL THIS
IS TOO MARGINAL TO RAISE ANY SCA HEADLINES ACRS THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND
BUT BOATING CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE IDEAL AND WAVES IN THE BAY
WILL BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AT 2-3 FT WITH COASTAL SEAS BUILDING TO
3-4 FT. GRADIENT WEAKENS A BIT ON THU...AND WINDS SHOULD BE A FEW
KT LESS OVERALL. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN SOUTHERLY FOR THE MOST PART
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB/MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 260628
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
228 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SUMMER-LIKE WX PATTERN CONTS W/ BERMUDA HI PRES RMNS STRONG ATTM.
MNLY LGT SSW WNDS OVRNGT. WK TROUGH ALOFT MOVING INTO THE SRN MTNS
THIS EVE GRADUALLY DISSIPATES AS IT TRACKS TO THE NNE THROUGH THE
NGT. SKC E...AND BECOMING PCLDY W. MOST LO TEMPS IN THE L/M60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES THE PREVIEW OF SUMMER THRU THE PRD. MODELS
DVLP A LEE TROF EACH DAY. CONVECTION THAT DVLPS OVR THE MTS WEAKENS
AS IT MOVES E INTO THE PIEDMONT TUE AS AIRMASS OVR MOST OF THE FA
REMAINS CAPPED. KEPT 20-30 DIURNAL POP OVR THE WRN MOST CNTYS. HIGHS
IN THE M-U80S...M70S-L80S CSTL AREAS...COOLEST AT THE BEACHES.

LATEST MODELS AMPLIFY THE SFC TROF AND ARE QUICKER TO BREAK THE CAP
WHICH ALLOWS FOR A MORE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE APPRCHG MSTR FROM
THE OHIO/TN VLLYS BOTH WED AND THURS. CONTINUED SUMMER-LIKE BUT WITH
HIGHER CHCS FOR MAINLY AFTRN/EVE SHWRS/TSTRMS WEST OF THE CHES BAY
WED AND AS FAR E AS THE COASTAL AREAS THURS. GIVEN THE INCRG PW`S
AND LL MSTR...THREATS WILL BE FOR LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS AS STEERING
CRNTS REMAIN WEAK. A TAD COOLER GIVEN MORE CLOUD COVERAGE BUT WITH
MORE HUMIDITY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE L-M80S...XCPT 75-80 AT THE
BEACHES. LOWS IN THE M-U60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
EACH DAY AND TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR TSTMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NW AREAS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN DURING THE
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NW AND
SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A
FAIRLY DRY PERIOD FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
AN INCREASE OF POPS TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. POPS WILL
BE LOWER OVER FAR SE PORTIONS.

GUIDANCE HAS 85H TEMPERATURES GETTING NO HIGHER THAN 16C. CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WILL ALSO HOLD READINGS DOWN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 85 TO 90 INLAND AND UPR
70S TO LWR 80S NEAR THE COAST. IT WILL BE MODERATELY HUMID WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S. LOWS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING S/SW WINDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT WELL INLAND...BUT IS
UNLIKELY TO AFFECT ANY OF THE TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE...BUT
SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF MAINLY LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS IS
EXPECTED WED AND THU (HIGHEST CHANCE ON THU). OUTSIDE OF TSTMS...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL...SOME PATCHY 2-4SM FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE
BY LATE IN THE WEEK DURING THE EARLY AM HRS PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID ATLC COAST
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACRS ONTARIO CANADA. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL PREVAIL...WITH SOME MINOR DIRECTION CHANGES ON A DIURNAL
BASIS (SSE MIDDAY THROUGH EVENING TO SSW OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE
MORNING). PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY AND WED IS TIGHT ENOUGH THAT
WINDS SHOULD AVG 10 TO 15 KT...WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING RESULTING IN GUSTS TO 20 KT. OVERALL STILL FEEL THIS
IS TOO MARGINAL TO RAISE ANY SCA HEADLINES ACRS THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND
BUT BOATING CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE IDEAL AND WAVES IN THE BAY
WILL BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AT 2-3 FT WITH COASTAL SEAS BUILDING TO
3-4 FT. GRADIENT WEAKENS A BIT ON THU...AND WINDS SHOULD BE A FEW
KT LESS OVERALL. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN SOUTHERLY FOR THE MOST PART
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB/MAS



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 260543
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
143 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY HAVE RETURNED TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION...BUT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MOST OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE UPDATE FOR THE EVENING FEATURES FAIRLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS AS A WEAK VORT RIBBON MOVING ACROSS EASTERN OHIO WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION HAS YIELDED NO THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. LIKEWISE...WHAT MEAGER
SHOWERS DID MANAGE TO BE MUSTERED DURING THE EVENING HAVE
DISSIPATED AT THIS HOUR.

THE FORECAST THINKING OF ANOTHER INCREASE IN POPS TOWARD MORNING
STILL SEEMS ON TARGET PER THE 18Z NAM GUIDANCE AS ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE RIDES NORTHEASTWARD. POPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR THIS.
HOWEVER...IN THE INTERIM BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...SKIES WERE REDUCED
FOR MOST AREAS TO BE GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE BULK OF
THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE FUNNEL OF DEEP MOISTURE
OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION...AT LEAST UNTIL THE ADVANCING MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSION SHUNTS THE PLUME EASTWARD BY THURSDAY AS
PER THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS.

CHANCE...TO LIKELY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL THUS BE MAINTAINED
FOR THE PERIOD. THE BEST OVERALL POPS AT MOMENT ARE STILL PROGGED
FOR WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH TODAYS MODEL RUNS ARE FASTER IN PUSHING
THE PARENT MID/UPR LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SUSTAINED MOISTURE TAP
EASTWARD...SO THOSE LIKELY NUMBERS WERE TRENDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
AS WELL.

THE SHORT TERM SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS TO BE COMPROMISED BY
WARM MID LEVELS AND A MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILE...BUT WARM
RAIN PROCESSES AND TRAINING MAY SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
UNTIL MOISTURE AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH WANES LATER ON WEDNESDAY.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE SEASONABLY WARM TEMP PROGNOSIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...AND PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEK AS MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK SPLIT FLOW REGIME
CONVERGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO REGION. THE SURFACE
FRONT IS PROJECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD UNTIL REDEVELOPING NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO GREAT PLAINS TROUGHING EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

GIVEN MODEL MAGNITUDE...POSITIONING...AND TIMING DISPUTES...PERSISTENCE
WILL RULE THE LONG TERM FORECAST STRATEGY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR IS FORECAST IN THE MEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT THERE
WILL BE OPPORTUNTIES FOR BRIEF RESTRICTIONS. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...MOST NUMEROUS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
WITH UNCERTAIN TIMING...HAVE ELECTED TO CONTINUE WITH VCSH/VCTS
FOR THE BULK OF THE TAF PERIOD. BRIEF DROPS TO MVFR AND EVEN IFR
CIG/VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWER OR STORM...BUT DID NOT
WANT TO INCLUDE LONG TEMPO PERIODS. EXPECT COVERAGE TO WANE PAST
SUNSET AS INSTABILITY DROPS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10
KNOTS OR LESS OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.  CL

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 260543
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
143 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY HAVE RETURNED TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION...BUT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MOST OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE UPDATE FOR THE EVENING FEATURES FAIRLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS AS A WEAK VORT RIBBON MOVING ACROSS EASTERN OHIO WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION HAS YIELDED NO THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. LIKEWISE...WHAT MEAGER
SHOWERS DID MANAGE TO BE MUSTERED DURING THE EVENING HAVE
DISSIPATED AT THIS HOUR.

THE FORECAST THINKING OF ANOTHER INCREASE IN POPS TOWARD MORNING
STILL SEEMS ON TARGET PER THE 18Z NAM GUIDANCE AS ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE RIDES NORTHEASTWARD. POPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR THIS.
HOWEVER...IN THE INTERIM BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...SKIES WERE REDUCED
FOR MOST AREAS TO BE GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE BULK OF
THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE FUNNEL OF DEEP MOISTURE
OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION...AT LEAST UNTIL THE ADVANCING MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSION SHUNTS THE PLUME EASTWARD BY THURSDAY AS
PER THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS.

CHANCE...TO LIKELY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL THUS BE MAINTAINED
FOR THE PERIOD. THE BEST OVERALL POPS AT MOMENT ARE STILL PROGGED
FOR WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH TODAYS MODEL RUNS ARE FASTER IN PUSHING
THE PARENT MID/UPR LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SUSTAINED MOISTURE TAP
EASTWARD...SO THOSE LIKELY NUMBERS WERE TRENDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
AS WELL.

THE SHORT TERM SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS TO BE COMPROMISED BY
WARM MID LEVELS AND A MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILE...BUT WARM
RAIN PROCESSES AND TRAINING MAY SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
UNTIL MOISTURE AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH WANES LATER ON WEDNESDAY.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE SEASONABLY WARM TEMP PROGNOSIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...AND PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEK AS MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK SPLIT FLOW REGIME
CONVERGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO REGION. THE SURFACE
FRONT IS PROJECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD UNTIL REDEVELOPING NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO GREAT PLAINS TROUGHING EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

GIVEN MODEL MAGNITUDE...POSITIONING...AND TIMING DISPUTES...PERSISTENCE
WILL RULE THE LONG TERM FORECAST STRATEGY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR IS FORECAST IN THE MEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT THERE
WILL BE OPPORTUNTIES FOR BRIEF RESTRICTIONS. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...MOST NUMEROUS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
WITH UNCERTAIN TIMING...HAVE ELECTED TO CONTINUE WITH VCSH/VCTS
FOR THE BULK OF THE TAF PERIOD. BRIEF DROPS TO MVFR AND EVEN IFR
CIG/VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWER OR STORM...BUT DID NOT
WANT TO INCLUDE LONG TEMPO PERIODS. EXPECT COVERAGE TO WANE PAST
SUNSET AS INSTABILITY DROPS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10
KNOTS OR LESS OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.  CL

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 260215
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1015 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SUMMER-LIKE WX PATTERN CONTS W/ BERMUDA HI PRES RMNS STRONG ATTM.
MNLY LGT SSW WNDS OVRNGT. WK TROUGH ALOFT MOVING INTO THE SRN MTNS
THIS EVE GRADUALLY DISSIPATES AS IT TRACKS TO THE NNE THROUGH THE
NGT. SKC E...AND BECOMING PCLDY W. MOST LO TEMPS IN THE L/M60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES THE PREVIEW OF SUMMER THRU THE PRD. MODELS
DVLP A LEE TROF EACH DAY. CONVECTION THAT DVLPS OVR THE MTS WEAKENS
AS IT MOVES E INTO THE PIEDMONT TUE AS AIRMASS OVR MOST OF THE FA
REMAINS CAPPED. KEPT 20-30 DIURNAL POP OVR THE WRN MOST CNTYS. HIGHS
IN THE M-U80S...M70S-L80S CSTL AREAS...COOLEST AT THE BEACHES.

LATEST MODELS AMPLIFY THE SFC TROF AND ARE QUICKER TO BREAK THE CAP
WHICH ALLOWS FOR A MORE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE APPRCHG MSTR FROM
THE OHIO/TN VLLYS BOTH WED AND THURS. CONTINUED SUMMER-LIKE BUT WITH
HIGHER CHCS FOR MAINLY AFTRN/EVE SHWRS/TSTRMS WEST OF THE CHES BAY
WED AND AS FAR E AS THE COASTAL AREAS THURS. GIVEN THE INCRG PW`S
AND LL MSTR...THREATS WILL BE FOR LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS AS STEERING
CRNTS REMAIN WEAK. A TAD COOLER GIVEN MORE CLOUD COVERAGE BUT WITH
MORE HUMIDITY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE L-M80S...XCPT 75-80 AT THE
BEACHES. LOWS IN THE M-U60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
EACH DAY AND TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR TSTMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NW AREAS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN DURING THE
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NW AND
SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A
FAIRLY DRY PERIOD FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
AN INCREASE OF POPS TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. POPS WILL
BE LOWER OVER FAR SE PORTIONS.

GUIDANCE HAS 85H TEMPERATURES GETTING NO HIGHER THAN 16C. CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WILL ALSO HOLD READINGS DOWN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 85 TO 90 INLAND AND UPR
70S TO LWR 80S NEAR THE COAST. IT WILL BE MODERATELY HUMID WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S. LOWS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PROVIDE STABLE
CONDITIONS AND S/SW WINDS DURING THE 00Z TAF PERIOD.

WINDS BE SOUTHERLY MONDAY EVENING...INCREASING FROM THE S/SW BY
MIDDAY TUESDAY. THE SKY WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS BY TUESDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE. THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
PIEDMONT MAY PRODUCE SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY AT RIC/SBY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE THURSDAY. OUTSIDE TSTMS...VFR CONDS SHOULD
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS STRONG HI PRES OFFSHORE WITH SLY FLOW
ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. THIS STAGNANT WX PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THRU
MID TO LATE WEEK. WINDS WILL AVG 10-15 KT...UP TO 15-20 KT OVER THE
CSTL WTRS EACH LATE AFTN/EVENG. WINDS MAY COME CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA
OVER THE BAY BUT HAVE CAPPED SUSTAINED WINDS FOR NOW AT ~15 KT.
WAVES OVER THE BAY WILL BE 1-3 FT WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS AT 2-4
FT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS OVER THE MARINE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...MAS



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 260215
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1015 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SUMMER-LIKE WX PATTERN CONTS W/ BERMUDA HI PRES RMNS STRONG ATTM.
MNLY LGT SSW WNDS OVRNGT. WK TROUGH ALOFT MOVING INTO THE SRN MTNS
THIS EVE GRADUALLY DISSIPATES AS IT TRACKS TO THE NNE THROUGH THE
NGT. SKC E...AND BECOMING PCLDY W. MOST LO TEMPS IN THE L/M60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES THE PREVIEW OF SUMMER THRU THE PRD. MODELS
DVLP A LEE TROF EACH DAY. CONVECTION THAT DVLPS OVR THE MTS WEAKENS
AS IT MOVES E INTO THE PIEDMONT TUE AS AIRMASS OVR MOST OF THE FA
REMAINS CAPPED. KEPT 20-30 DIURNAL POP OVR THE WRN MOST CNTYS. HIGHS
IN THE M-U80S...M70S-L80S CSTL AREAS...COOLEST AT THE BEACHES.

LATEST MODELS AMPLIFY THE SFC TROF AND ARE QUICKER TO BREAK THE CAP
WHICH ALLOWS FOR A MORE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE APPRCHG MSTR FROM
THE OHIO/TN VLLYS BOTH WED AND THURS. CONTINUED SUMMER-LIKE BUT WITH
HIGHER CHCS FOR MAINLY AFTRN/EVE SHWRS/TSTRMS WEST OF THE CHES BAY
WED AND AS FAR E AS THE COASTAL AREAS THURS. GIVEN THE INCRG PW`S
AND LL MSTR...THREATS WILL BE FOR LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS AS STEERING
CRNTS REMAIN WEAK. A TAD COOLER GIVEN MORE CLOUD COVERAGE BUT WITH
MORE HUMIDITY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE L-M80S...XCPT 75-80 AT THE
BEACHES. LOWS IN THE M-U60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
EACH DAY AND TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR TSTMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NW AREAS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN DURING THE
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NW AND
SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A
FAIRLY DRY PERIOD FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
AN INCREASE OF POPS TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. POPS WILL
BE LOWER OVER FAR SE PORTIONS.

GUIDANCE HAS 85H TEMPERATURES GETTING NO HIGHER THAN 16C. CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WILL ALSO HOLD READINGS DOWN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 85 TO 90 INLAND AND UPR
70S TO LWR 80S NEAR THE COAST. IT WILL BE MODERATELY HUMID WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S. LOWS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PROVIDE STABLE
CONDITIONS AND S/SW WINDS DURING THE 00Z TAF PERIOD.

WINDS BE SOUTHERLY MONDAY EVENING...INCREASING FROM THE S/SW BY
MIDDAY TUESDAY. THE SKY WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS BY TUESDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE. THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
PIEDMONT MAY PRODUCE SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY AT RIC/SBY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE THURSDAY. OUTSIDE TSTMS...VFR CONDS SHOULD
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS STRONG HI PRES OFFSHORE WITH SLY FLOW
ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. THIS STAGNANT WX PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THRU
MID TO LATE WEEK. WINDS WILL AVG 10-15 KT...UP TO 15-20 KT OVER THE
CSTL WTRS EACH LATE AFTN/EVENG. WINDS MAY COME CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA
OVER THE BAY BUT HAVE CAPPED SUSTAINED WINDS FOR NOW AT ~15 KT.
WAVES OVER THE BAY WILL BE 1-3 FT WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS AT 2-4
FT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS OVER THE MARINE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...MAS



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 260215
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1015 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SUMMER-LIKE WX PATTERN CONTS W/ BERMUDA HI PRES RMNS STRONG ATTM.
MNLY LGT SSW WNDS OVRNGT. WK TROUGH ALOFT MOVING INTO THE SRN MTNS
THIS EVE GRADUALLY DISSIPATES AS IT TRACKS TO THE NNE THROUGH THE
NGT. SKC E...AND BECOMING PCLDY W. MOST LO TEMPS IN THE L/M60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES THE PREVIEW OF SUMMER THRU THE PRD. MODELS
DVLP A LEE TROF EACH DAY. CONVECTION THAT DVLPS OVR THE MTS WEAKENS
AS IT MOVES E INTO THE PIEDMONT TUE AS AIRMASS OVR MOST OF THE FA
REMAINS CAPPED. KEPT 20-30 DIURNAL POP OVR THE WRN MOST CNTYS. HIGHS
IN THE M-U80S...M70S-L80S CSTL AREAS...COOLEST AT THE BEACHES.

LATEST MODELS AMPLIFY THE SFC TROF AND ARE QUICKER TO BREAK THE CAP
WHICH ALLOWS FOR A MORE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE APPRCHG MSTR FROM
THE OHIO/TN VLLYS BOTH WED AND THURS. CONTINUED SUMMER-LIKE BUT WITH
HIGHER CHCS FOR MAINLY AFTRN/EVE SHWRS/TSTRMS WEST OF THE CHES BAY
WED AND AS FAR E AS THE COASTAL AREAS THURS. GIVEN THE INCRG PW`S
AND LL MSTR...THREATS WILL BE FOR LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS AS STEERING
CRNTS REMAIN WEAK. A TAD COOLER GIVEN MORE CLOUD COVERAGE BUT WITH
MORE HUMIDITY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE L-M80S...XCPT 75-80 AT THE
BEACHES. LOWS IN THE M-U60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
EACH DAY AND TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR TSTMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NW AREAS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN DURING THE
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NW AND
SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A
FAIRLY DRY PERIOD FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
AN INCREASE OF POPS TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. POPS WILL
BE LOWER OVER FAR SE PORTIONS.

GUIDANCE HAS 85H TEMPERATURES GETTING NO HIGHER THAN 16C. CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WILL ALSO HOLD READINGS DOWN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 85 TO 90 INLAND AND UPR
70S TO LWR 80S NEAR THE COAST. IT WILL BE MODERATELY HUMID WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S. LOWS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PROVIDE STABLE
CONDITIONS AND S/SW WINDS DURING THE 00Z TAF PERIOD.

WINDS BE SOUTHERLY MONDAY EVENING...INCREASING FROM THE S/SW BY
MIDDAY TUESDAY. THE SKY WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS BY TUESDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE. THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
PIEDMONT MAY PRODUCE SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY AT RIC/SBY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE THURSDAY. OUTSIDE TSTMS...VFR CONDS SHOULD
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS STRONG HI PRES OFFSHORE WITH SLY FLOW
ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. THIS STAGNANT WX PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THRU
MID TO LATE WEEK. WINDS WILL AVG 10-15 KT...UP TO 15-20 KT OVER THE
CSTL WTRS EACH LATE AFTN/EVENG. WINDS MAY COME CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA
OVER THE BAY BUT HAVE CAPPED SUSTAINED WINDS FOR NOW AT ~15 KT.
WAVES OVER THE BAY WILL BE 1-3 FT WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS AT 2-4
FT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS OVER THE MARINE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...MAS



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 260215
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1015 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SUMMER-LIKE WX PATTERN CONTS W/ BERMUDA HI PRES RMNS STRONG ATTM.
MNLY LGT SSW WNDS OVRNGT. WK TROUGH ALOFT MOVING INTO THE SRN MTNS
THIS EVE GRADUALLY DISSIPATES AS IT TRACKS TO THE NNE THROUGH THE
NGT. SKC E...AND BECOMING PCLDY W. MOST LO TEMPS IN THE L/M60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES THE PREVIEW OF SUMMER THRU THE PRD. MODELS
DVLP A LEE TROF EACH DAY. CONVECTION THAT DVLPS OVR THE MTS WEAKENS
AS IT MOVES E INTO THE PIEDMONT TUE AS AIRMASS OVR MOST OF THE FA
REMAINS CAPPED. KEPT 20-30 DIURNAL POP OVR THE WRN MOST CNTYS. HIGHS
IN THE M-U80S...M70S-L80S CSTL AREAS...COOLEST AT THE BEACHES.

LATEST MODELS AMPLIFY THE SFC TROF AND ARE QUICKER TO BREAK THE CAP
WHICH ALLOWS FOR A MORE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE APPRCHG MSTR FROM
THE OHIO/TN VLLYS BOTH WED AND THURS. CONTINUED SUMMER-LIKE BUT WITH
HIGHER CHCS FOR MAINLY AFTRN/EVE SHWRS/TSTRMS WEST OF THE CHES BAY
WED AND AS FAR E AS THE COASTAL AREAS THURS. GIVEN THE INCRG PW`S
AND LL MSTR...THREATS WILL BE FOR LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS AS STEERING
CRNTS REMAIN WEAK. A TAD COOLER GIVEN MORE CLOUD COVERAGE BUT WITH
MORE HUMIDITY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE L-M80S...XCPT 75-80 AT THE
BEACHES. LOWS IN THE M-U60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
EACH DAY AND TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR TSTMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NW AREAS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN DURING THE
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NW AND
SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A
FAIRLY DRY PERIOD FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
AN INCREASE OF POPS TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. POPS WILL
BE LOWER OVER FAR SE PORTIONS.

GUIDANCE HAS 85H TEMPERATURES GETTING NO HIGHER THAN 16C. CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WILL ALSO HOLD READINGS DOWN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 85 TO 90 INLAND AND UPR
70S TO LWR 80S NEAR THE COAST. IT WILL BE MODERATELY HUMID WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S. LOWS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PROVIDE STABLE
CONDITIONS AND S/SW WINDS DURING THE 00Z TAF PERIOD.

WINDS BE SOUTHERLY MONDAY EVENING...INCREASING FROM THE S/SW BY
MIDDAY TUESDAY. THE SKY WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS BY TUESDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE. THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
PIEDMONT MAY PRODUCE SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY AT RIC/SBY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE THURSDAY. OUTSIDE TSTMS...VFR CONDS SHOULD
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS STRONG HI PRES OFFSHORE WITH SLY FLOW
ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. THIS STAGNANT WX PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THRU
MID TO LATE WEEK. WINDS WILL AVG 10-15 KT...UP TO 15-20 KT OVER THE
CSTL WTRS EACH LATE AFTN/EVENG. WINDS MAY COME CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA
OVER THE BAY BUT HAVE CAPPED SUSTAINED WINDS FOR NOW AT ~15 KT.
WAVES OVER THE BAY WILL BE 1-3 FT WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS AT 2-4
FT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS OVER THE MARINE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...MAS



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 260205
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1005 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY HAVE RETURNED TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION...BUT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MOST OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPDATE FOR THE EVENING FEATURES FAIRLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS AS A WEAK VORT RIBBON MOVING ACROSS EASTERN OHIO WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION HAS YIELDED NO THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. LIKEWISE...WHAT MEAGER
SHOWERS DID MANAGE TO BE MUSTERED DURING THE EVENING HAVE
DISSIPATED AT THIS HOUR.

THE FORECAST THINKING OF ANOTHER INCREASE IN POPS TOWARD MORNING
STILL SEEMS ON TARGET PER THE 18Z NAM GUIDANCE AS ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE RIDES NORTHEASTWARD. POPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR THIS.
HOWEVER...IN THE INTERIM BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...SKIES WERE REDUCED
FOR MOST AREAS TO BE GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE BULK OF
THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE FUNNEL OF DEEP MOISTURE
OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION...AT LEAST UNTIL THE ADVANCING MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSION SHUNTS THE PLUME EASTWARD BY THURSDAY AS
PER THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS.

CHANCE...TO LIKELY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL THUS BE MAINTAINED
FOR THE PERIOD. THE BEST OVERALL POPS AT MOMENT ARE STILL PROGGED
FOR WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH TODAYS MODEL RUNS ARE FASTER IN PUSHING
THE PARENT MID/UPR LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SUSTAINED MOISTURE TAP
EASTWARD...SO THOSE LIKELY NUMBERS WERE TRENDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
AS WELL.

THE SHORT TERM SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS TO BE COMPROMISED BY
WARM MID LEVELS AND A MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILE...BUT WARM
RAIN PROCESSES AND TRAINING MAY SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
UNTIL MOISTURE AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH WANES LATER ON WEDNESDAY.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE SEASONABLY WARM TEMP PROGNOSIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...AND PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEK AS MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK SPLIT FLOW REGIME
CONVERGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO REGION. THE SURFACE
FRONT IS PROJECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD UNTIL REDEVELOPING NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO GREAT PLAINS TROUGHING EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

GIVEN MODEL MAGNITUDE...POSITIONING...AND TIMING DISPUTES...PERSISTENCE
WILL RULE THE LONG TERM FORECAST STRATEGY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENLY VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE ERODING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION SUPPRESSES CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL INCREASE LOCAL
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY SPAWN A
STRATUS/STRATOCU LAYER EARLY ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE
MVFR RESTRICTIONS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN IFR CEILINGS IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS. TAFS THUS INCLUDE A VICINITY SHOWER MENTION AND A LATE
PERIOD...LOW END VFR CLOUD BASE FORECAST AS A LOW CONFIDENCE
HEDGE.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 260205
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1005 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY HAVE RETURNED TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION...BUT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MOST OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPDATE FOR THE EVENING FEATURES FAIRLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS AS A WEAK VORT RIBBON MOVING ACROSS EASTERN OHIO WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION HAS YIELDED NO THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. LIKEWISE...WHAT MEAGER
SHOWERS DID MANAGE TO BE MUSTERED DURING THE EVENING HAVE
DISSIPATED AT THIS HOUR.

THE FORECAST THINKING OF ANOTHER INCREASE IN POPS TOWARD MORNING
STILL SEEMS ON TARGET PER THE 18Z NAM GUIDANCE AS ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE RIDES NORTHEASTWARD. POPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR THIS.
HOWEVER...IN THE INTERIM BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...SKIES WERE REDUCED
FOR MOST AREAS TO BE GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE BULK OF
THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE FUNNEL OF DEEP MOISTURE
OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION...AT LEAST UNTIL THE ADVANCING MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSION SHUNTS THE PLUME EASTWARD BY THURSDAY AS
PER THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS.

CHANCE...TO LIKELY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL THUS BE MAINTAINED
FOR THE PERIOD. THE BEST OVERALL POPS AT MOMENT ARE STILL PROGGED
FOR WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH TODAYS MODEL RUNS ARE FASTER IN PUSHING
THE PARENT MID/UPR LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SUSTAINED MOISTURE TAP
EASTWARD...SO THOSE LIKELY NUMBERS WERE TRENDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
AS WELL.

THE SHORT TERM SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS TO BE COMPROMISED BY
WARM MID LEVELS AND A MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILE...BUT WARM
RAIN PROCESSES AND TRAINING MAY SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
UNTIL MOISTURE AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH WANES LATER ON WEDNESDAY.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE SEASONABLY WARM TEMP PROGNOSIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...AND PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEK AS MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK SPLIT FLOW REGIME
CONVERGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO REGION. THE SURFACE
FRONT IS PROJECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD UNTIL REDEVELOPING NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO GREAT PLAINS TROUGHING EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

GIVEN MODEL MAGNITUDE...POSITIONING...AND TIMING DISPUTES...PERSISTENCE
WILL RULE THE LONG TERM FORECAST STRATEGY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENLY VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE ERODING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION SUPPRESSES CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL INCREASE LOCAL
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY SPAWN A
STRATUS/STRATOCU LAYER EARLY ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE
MVFR RESTRICTIONS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN IFR CEILINGS IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS. TAFS THUS INCLUDE A VICINITY SHOWER MENTION AND A LATE
PERIOD...LOW END VFR CLOUD BASE FORECAST AS A LOW CONFIDENCE
HEDGE.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 260205
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1005 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY HAVE RETURNED TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION...BUT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MOST OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPDATE FOR THE EVENING FEATURES FAIRLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS AS A WEAK VORT RIBBON MOVING ACROSS EASTERN OHIO WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION HAS YIELDED NO THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. LIKEWISE...WHAT MEAGER
SHOWERS DID MANAGE TO BE MUSTERED DURING THE EVENING HAVE
DISSIPATED AT THIS HOUR.

THE FORECAST THINKING OF ANOTHER INCREASE IN POPS TOWARD MORNING
STILL SEEMS ON TARGET PER THE 18Z NAM GUIDANCE AS ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE RIDES NORTHEASTWARD. POPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR THIS.
HOWEVER...IN THE INTERIM BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...SKIES WERE REDUCED
FOR MOST AREAS TO BE GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE BULK OF
THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE FUNNEL OF DEEP MOISTURE
OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION...AT LEAST UNTIL THE ADVANCING MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSION SHUNTS THE PLUME EASTWARD BY THURSDAY AS
PER THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS.

CHANCE...TO LIKELY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL THUS BE MAINTAINED
FOR THE PERIOD. THE BEST OVERALL POPS AT MOMENT ARE STILL PROGGED
FOR WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH TODAYS MODEL RUNS ARE FASTER IN PUSHING
THE PARENT MID/UPR LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SUSTAINED MOISTURE TAP
EASTWARD...SO THOSE LIKELY NUMBERS WERE TRENDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
AS WELL.

THE SHORT TERM SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS TO BE COMPROMISED BY
WARM MID LEVELS AND A MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILE...BUT WARM
RAIN PROCESSES AND TRAINING MAY SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
UNTIL MOISTURE AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH WANES LATER ON WEDNESDAY.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE SEASONABLY WARM TEMP PROGNOSIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...AND PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEK AS MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK SPLIT FLOW REGIME
CONVERGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO REGION. THE SURFACE
FRONT IS PROJECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD UNTIL REDEVELOPING NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO GREAT PLAINS TROUGHING EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

GIVEN MODEL MAGNITUDE...POSITIONING...AND TIMING DISPUTES...PERSISTENCE
WILL RULE THE LONG TERM FORECAST STRATEGY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENLY VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE ERODING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION SUPPRESSES CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL INCREASE LOCAL
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY SPAWN A
STRATUS/STRATOCU LAYER EARLY ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE
MVFR RESTRICTIONS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN IFR CEILINGS IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS. TAFS THUS INCLUDE A VICINITY SHOWER MENTION AND A LATE
PERIOD...LOW END VFR CLOUD BASE FORECAST AS A LOW CONFIDENCE
HEDGE.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KLWX 260107 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
907 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING WARM HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BEGINNING TUESDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE FURTHER OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT.
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGHLANDS LATE TONIGHT FROM
THE ACTIVITY IN THE TN VALLEY. AS UPPER RIDGE MOVES FURTHER OFF
THE COAST EXPECT ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO WEAKEN FURTHER
AND ALLOW SCT SHOWERS AND T-STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.
MODELS SUGGEST SOME CONVECTION WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL MOVE
INTO OUR AREA UNDER A SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW. NEW CONVECTION
COULD ALSO DEVELOP EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MTNS. GFS PLOT OF 850 MB
EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE SHOWS A MAXIMUM FROM MONTGOMERY
COUNTY SOUTHWARD THROUGH DULLES TO KCHO SUGGESTING ANOTHER
POSSIBLE AREA OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL BE UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT WITH THE RIDGE IN
THE ATLANTIC AND MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO RIDE NEAR
OR OVER THE HIGHLANDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE STORM MOTION WILL BE
CLOSE TO 180 SO THERE WONT BE MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESSION. AREAS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SHOULD STAY DRY INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
FLOW VEERS TO 220 BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN SUBURBS OF DC AND
BALTIMORE BY SUNSET. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO
THE RIDGE STILL INFLUENCING THE AREA AND CLOUD COVER. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY SUB-SVR.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EARLY SUMMER WARMTH AND MOISTURE WL BE THE MAIN WX WORDS FOR THE
2ND HALF OF THE WK. HIGH PRES OFF THE CST AND FNTL BNDRY E OF THE
MS RVR WL KEEP THE E CST IN WARM HUMID AIR. MDLS ARE PUTTING OUT
SOME LKLY POPS. IT IS HARD TO WANT TO RAISE SUMMER CNVTCN POPS TO
THAT LVL SVRL DAYS IN ADVANCE - FOR THE TIME BEING WL KEEP POPS IN
CHC RANGE.

CLDS WL BE ON THE INCRS TUE AND RMN THRU THU. THIS WL KEEP
INSOLATION DOWN...BUT MOISTURE/SRLY FLOW WL ALSO BE KEEPING
NIGHTTIME WARMTH IN. HIGHS WL BE IN THE MU80S...LOWS IN THE MU60S
XCPT L70S IN THE CITIES.

A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY COULD STILL BE 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE A SECOND COLD FRONT...MODERATELY-STRONG...
APPROACHES THE REGION SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY COULD BE 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...REACHING THE UPPER 60S
AND NEAR 90...RESPECTIVELY.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS
IN DOING THIS. NONETHELESS...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND HIGHS SUNDAY WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE.

A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
COAST...HELPING TO COOL CONDITIONS DOWN A LITTLE. HOWEVER...
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND PASSING MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TO THE NORTH COULD BRING ANOTHER THREAT FOR RAIN
SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED. TEMPERATURES MAY BE A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. -SHRA/VCTS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY AT KIAD AND KCHO.

VFR MAJORITY OF THE TIME TUE NGT-THU. RW/TRW WL
BE PSBL... ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTN/ERLY EVE. SRLY WINDS WL GUST
INTO THE L20S DURG THE AFTN.

MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST
5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
S WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS
LOWER POTOMAC AND CHES BAY SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND. WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE TONIGHT ACROSS THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC AND CHESAPEAKE BAY
NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

SRLY FLOW WL CONT OVR THE WATERS TUE NGT-THU. SCA IN EFFECT TUE
NGT FOR THE LWR PTMC/MAIN PTN OF THE BAY. THIS WL LKLY NEED TO BE
XTND INTO WED. RW/TRW WL BE PSBL AS WELL.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ531-538-539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-
     537-540>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...WOODY!
AVIATION...LFR
MARINE...LFR




000
FXUS61 KLWX 260107 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
907 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING WARM HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BEGINNING TUESDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE FURTHER OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT.
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGHLANDS LATE TONIGHT FROM
THE ACTIVITY IN THE TN VALLEY. AS UPPER RIDGE MOVES FURTHER OFF
THE COAST EXPECT ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO WEAKEN FURTHER
AND ALLOW SCT SHOWERS AND T-STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.
MODELS SUGGEST SOME CONVECTION WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL MOVE
INTO OUR AREA UNDER A SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW. NEW CONVECTION
COULD ALSO DEVELOP EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MTNS. GFS PLOT OF 850 MB
EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE SHOWS A MAXIMUM FROM MONTGOMERY
COUNTY SOUTHWARD THROUGH DULLES TO KCHO SUGGESTING ANOTHER
POSSIBLE AREA OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL BE UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT WITH THE RIDGE IN
THE ATLANTIC AND MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO RIDE NEAR
OR OVER THE HIGHLANDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE STORM MOTION WILL BE
CLOSE TO 180 SO THERE WONT BE MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESSION. AREAS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SHOULD STAY DRY INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
FLOW VEERS TO 220 BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN SUBURBS OF DC AND
BALTIMORE BY SUNSET. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO
THE RIDGE STILL INFLUENCING THE AREA AND CLOUD COVER. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY SUB-SVR.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EARLY SUMMER WARMTH AND MOISTURE WL BE THE MAIN WX WORDS FOR THE
2ND HALF OF THE WK. HIGH PRES OFF THE CST AND FNTL BNDRY E OF THE
MS RVR WL KEEP THE E CST IN WARM HUMID AIR. MDLS ARE PUTTING OUT
SOME LKLY POPS. IT IS HARD TO WANT TO RAISE SUMMER CNVTCN POPS TO
THAT LVL SVRL DAYS IN ADVANCE - FOR THE TIME BEING WL KEEP POPS IN
CHC RANGE.

CLDS WL BE ON THE INCRS TUE AND RMN THRU THU. THIS WL KEEP
INSOLATION DOWN...BUT MOISTURE/SRLY FLOW WL ALSO BE KEEPING
NIGHTTIME WARMTH IN. HIGHS WL BE IN THE MU80S...LOWS IN THE MU60S
XCPT L70S IN THE CITIES.

A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY COULD STILL BE 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE A SECOND COLD FRONT...MODERATELY-STRONG...
APPROACHES THE REGION SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY COULD BE 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...REACHING THE UPPER 60S
AND NEAR 90...RESPECTIVELY.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS
IN DOING THIS. NONETHELESS...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND HIGHS SUNDAY WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE.

A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
COAST...HELPING TO COOL CONDITIONS DOWN A LITTLE. HOWEVER...
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND PASSING MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TO THE NORTH COULD BRING ANOTHER THREAT FOR RAIN
SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED. TEMPERATURES MAY BE A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. -SHRA/VCTS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY AT KIAD AND KCHO.

VFR MAJORITY OF THE TIME TUE NGT-THU. RW/TRW WL
BE PSBL... ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTN/ERLY EVE. SRLY WINDS WL GUST
INTO THE L20S DURG THE AFTN.

MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST
5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
S WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS
LOWER POTOMAC AND CHES BAY SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND. WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE TONIGHT ACROSS THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC AND CHESAPEAKE BAY
NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

SRLY FLOW WL CONT OVR THE WATERS TUE NGT-THU. SCA IN EFFECT TUE
NGT FOR THE LWR PTMC/MAIN PTN OF THE BAY. THIS WL LKLY NEED TO BE
XTND INTO WED. RW/TRW WL BE PSBL AS WELL.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ531-538-539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-
     537-540>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...WOODY!
AVIATION...LFR
MARINE...LFR




000
FXUS61 KLWX 260107 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
907 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING WARM HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BEGINNING TUESDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE FURTHER OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT.
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGHLANDS LATE TONIGHT FROM
THE ACTIVITY IN THE TN VALLEY. AS UPPER RIDGE MOVES FURTHER OFF
THE COAST EXPECT ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO WEAKEN FURTHER
AND ALLOW SCT SHOWERS AND T-STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.
MODELS SUGGEST SOME CONVECTION WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL MOVE
INTO OUR AREA UNDER A SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW. NEW CONVECTION
COULD ALSO DEVELOP EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MTNS. GFS PLOT OF 850 MB
EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE SHOWS A MAXIMUM FROM MONTGOMERY
COUNTY SOUTHWARD THROUGH DULLES TO KCHO SUGGESTING ANOTHER
POSSIBLE AREA OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL BE UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT WITH THE RIDGE IN
THE ATLANTIC AND MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO RIDE NEAR
OR OVER THE HIGHLANDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE STORM MOTION WILL BE
CLOSE TO 180 SO THERE WONT BE MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESSION. AREAS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SHOULD STAY DRY INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
FLOW VEERS TO 220 BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN SUBURBS OF DC AND
BALTIMORE BY SUNSET. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO
THE RIDGE STILL INFLUENCING THE AREA AND CLOUD COVER. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY SUB-SVR.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EARLY SUMMER WARMTH AND MOISTURE WL BE THE MAIN WX WORDS FOR THE
2ND HALF OF THE WK. HIGH PRES OFF THE CST AND FNTL BNDRY E OF THE
MS RVR WL KEEP THE E CST IN WARM HUMID AIR. MDLS ARE PUTTING OUT
SOME LKLY POPS. IT IS HARD TO WANT TO RAISE SUMMER CNVTCN POPS TO
THAT LVL SVRL DAYS IN ADVANCE - FOR THE TIME BEING WL KEEP POPS IN
CHC RANGE.

CLDS WL BE ON THE INCRS TUE AND RMN THRU THU. THIS WL KEEP
INSOLATION DOWN...BUT MOISTURE/SRLY FLOW WL ALSO BE KEEPING
NIGHTTIME WARMTH IN. HIGHS WL BE IN THE MU80S...LOWS IN THE MU60S
XCPT L70S IN THE CITIES.

A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY COULD STILL BE 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE A SECOND COLD FRONT...MODERATELY-STRONG...
APPROACHES THE REGION SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY COULD BE 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...REACHING THE UPPER 60S
AND NEAR 90...RESPECTIVELY.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS
IN DOING THIS. NONETHELESS...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND HIGHS SUNDAY WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE.

A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
COAST...HELPING TO COOL CONDITIONS DOWN A LITTLE. HOWEVER...
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND PASSING MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TO THE NORTH COULD BRING ANOTHER THREAT FOR RAIN
SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED. TEMPERATURES MAY BE A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. -SHRA/VCTS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY AT KIAD AND KCHO.

VFR MAJORITY OF THE TIME TUE NGT-THU. RW/TRW WL
BE PSBL... ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTN/ERLY EVE. SRLY WINDS WL GUST
INTO THE L20S DURG THE AFTN.

MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST
5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
S WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS
LOWER POTOMAC AND CHES BAY SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND. WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE TONIGHT ACROSS THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC AND CHESAPEAKE BAY
NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

SRLY FLOW WL CONT OVR THE WATERS TUE NGT-THU. SCA IN EFFECT TUE
NGT FOR THE LWR PTMC/MAIN PTN OF THE BAY. THIS WL LKLY NEED TO BE
XTND INTO WED. RW/TRW WL BE PSBL AS WELL.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ531-538-539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-
     537-540>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...WOODY!
AVIATION...LFR
MARINE...LFR




000
FXUS61 KLWX 260107 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
907 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING WARM HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BEGINNING TUESDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE FURTHER OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT.
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGHLANDS LATE TONIGHT FROM
THE ACTIVITY IN THE TN VALLEY. AS UPPER RIDGE MOVES FURTHER OFF
THE COAST EXPECT ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO WEAKEN FURTHER
AND ALLOW SCT SHOWERS AND T-STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.
MODELS SUGGEST SOME CONVECTION WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL MOVE
INTO OUR AREA UNDER A SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW. NEW CONVECTION
COULD ALSO DEVELOP EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MTNS. GFS PLOT OF 850 MB
EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE SHOWS A MAXIMUM FROM MONTGOMERY
COUNTY SOUTHWARD THROUGH DULLES TO KCHO SUGGESTING ANOTHER
POSSIBLE AREA OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL BE UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT WITH THE RIDGE IN
THE ATLANTIC AND MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO RIDE NEAR
OR OVER THE HIGHLANDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE STORM MOTION WILL BE
CLOSE TO 180 SO THERE WONT BE MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESSION. AREAS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SHOULD STAY DRY INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
FLOW VEERS TO 220 BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN SUBURBS OF DC AND
BALTIMORE BY SUNSET. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO
THE RIDGE STILL INFLUENCING THE AREA AND CLOUD COVER. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY SUB-SVR.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EARLY SUMMER WARMTH AND MOISTURE WL BE THE MAIN WX WORDS FOR THE
2ND HALF OF THE WK. HIGH PRES OFF THE CST AND FNTL BNDRY E OF THE
MS RVR WL KEEP THE E CST IN WARM HUMID AIR. MDLS ARE PUTTING OUT
SOME LKLY POPS. IT IS HARD TO WANT TO RAISE SUMMER CNVTCN POPS TO
THAT LVL SVRL DAYS IN ADVANCE - FOR THE TIME BEING WL KEEP POPS IN
CHC RANGE.

CLDS WL BE ON THE INCRS TUE AND RMN THRU THU. THIS WL KEEP
INSOLATION DOWN...BUT MOISTURE/SRLY FLOW WL ALSO BE KEEPING
NIGHTTIME WARMTH IN. HIGHS WL BE IN THE MU80S...LOWS IN THE MU60S
XCPT L70S IN THE CITIES.

A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY COULD STILL BE 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE A SECOND COLD FRONT...MODERATELY-STRONG...
APPROACHES THE REGION SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY COULD BE 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...REACHING THE UPPER 60S
AND NEAR 90...RESPECTIVELY.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS
IN DOING THIS. NONETHELESS...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND HIGHS SUNDAY WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE.

A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
COAST...HELPING TO COOL CONDITIONS DOWN A LITTLE. HOWEVER...
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND PASSING MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TO THE NORTH COULD BRING ANOTHER THREAT FOR RAIN
SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED. TEMPERATURES MAY BE A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. -SHRA/VCTS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY AT KIAD AND KCHO.

VFR MAJORITY OF THE TIME TUE NGT-THU. RW/TRW WL
BE PSBL... ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTN/ERLY EVE. SRLY WINDS WL GUST
INTO THE L20S DURG THE AFTN.

MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST
5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
S WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS
LOWER POTOMAC AND CHES BAY SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND. WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE TONIGHT ACROSS THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC AND CHESAPEAKE BAY
NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

SRLY FLOW WL CONT OVR THE WATERS TUE NGT-THU. SCA IN EFFECT TUE
NGT FOR THE LWR PTMC/MAIN PTN OF THE BAY. THIS WL LKLY NEED TO BE
XTND INTO WED. RW/TRW WL BE PSBL AS WELL.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ531-538-539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-
     537-540>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...WOODY!
AVIATION...LFR
MARINE...LFR




000
FXUS61 KLWX 260107 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
907 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING WARM HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BEGINNING TUESDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE FURTHER OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT.
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGHLANDS LATE TONIGHT FROM
THE ACTIVITY IN THE TN VALLEY. AS UPPER RIDGE MOVES FURTHER OFF
THE COAST EXPECT ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO WEAKEN FURTHER
AND ALLOW SCT SHOWERS AND T-STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.
MODELS SUGGEST SOME CONVECTION WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL MOVE
INTO OUR AREA UNDER A SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW. NEW CONVECTION
COULD ALSO DEVELOP EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MTNS. GFS PLOT OF 850 MB
EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE SHOWS A MAXIMUM FROM MONTGOMERY
COUNTY SOUTHWARD THROUGH DULLES TO KCHO SUGGESTING ANOTHER
POSSIBLE AREA OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL BE UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT WITH THE RIDGE IN
THE ATLANTIC AND MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO RIDE NEAR
OR OVER THE HIGHLANDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE STORM MOTION WILL BE
CLOSE TO 180 SO THERE WONT BE MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESSION. AREAS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SHOULD STAY DRY INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
FLOW VEERS TO 220 BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN SUBURBS OF DC AND
BALTIMORE BY SUNSET. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO
THE RIDGE STILL INFLUENCING THE AREA AND CLOUD COVER. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY SUB-SVR.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EARLY SUMMER WARMTH AND MOISTURE WL BE THE MAIN WX WORDS FOR THE
2ND HALF OF THE WK. HIGH PRES OFF THE CST AND FNTL BNDRY E OF THE
MS RVR WL KEEP THE E CST IN WARM HUMID AIR. MDLS ARE PUTTING OUT
SOME LKLY POPS. IT IS HARD TO WANT TO RAISE SUMMER CNVTCN POPS TO
THAT LVL SVRL DAYS IN ADVANCE - FOR THE TIME BEING WL KEEP POPS IN
CHC RANGE.

CLDS WL BE ON THE INCRS TUE AND RMN THRU THU. THIS WL KEEP
INSOLATION DOWN...BUT MOISTURE/SRLY FLOW WL ALSO BE KEEPING
NIGHTTIME WARMTH IN. HIGHS WL BE IN THE MU80S...LOWS IN THE MU60S
XCPT L70S IN THE CITIES.

A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY COULD STILL BE 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE A SECOND COLD FRONT...MODERATELY-STRONG...
APPROACHES THE REGION SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY COULD BE 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...REACHING THE UPPER 60S
AND NEAR 90...RESPECTIVELY.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS
IN DOING THIS. NONETHELESS...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND HIGHS SUNDAY WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE.

A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
COAST...HELPING TO COOL CONDITIONS DOWN A LITTLE. HOWEVER...
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND PASSING MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TO THE NORTH COULD BRING ANOTHER THREAT FOR RAIN
SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED. TEMPERATURES MAY BE A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. -SHRA/VCTS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY AT KIAD AND KCHO.

VFR MAJORITY OF THE TIME TUE NGT-THU. RW/TRW WL
BE PSBL... ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTN/ERLY EVE. SRLY WINDS WL GUST
INTO THE L20S DURG THE AFTN.

MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST
5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
S WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS
LOWER POTOMAC AND CHES BAY SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND. WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE TONIGHT ACROSS THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC AND CHESAPEAKE BAY
NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

SRLY FLOW WL CONT OVR THE WATERS TUE NGT-THU. SCA IN EFFECT TUE
NGT FOR THE LWR PTMC/MAIN PTN OF THE BAY. THIS WL LKLY NEED TO BE
XTND INTO WED. RW/TRW WL BE PSBL AS WELL.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ531-538-539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-
     537-540>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...WOODY!
AVIATION...LFR
MARINE...LFR



000
FXUS61 KLWX 260107 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
907 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING WARM HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BEGINNING TUESDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE FURTHER OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT.
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGHLANDS LATE TONIGHT FROM
THE ACTIVITY IN THE TN VALLEY. AS UPPER RIDGE MOVES FURTHER OFF
THE COAST EXPECT ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO WEAKEN FURTHER
AND ALLOW SCT SHOWERS AND T-STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.
MODELS SUGGEST SOME CONVECTION WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL MOVE
INTO OUR AREA UNDER A SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW. NEW CONVECTION
COULD ALSO DEVELOP EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MTNS. GFS PLOT OF 850 MB
EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE SHOWS A MAXIMUM FROM MONTGOMERY
COUNTY SOUTHWARD THROUGH DULLES TO KCHO SUGGESTING ANOTHER
POSSIBLE AREA OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL BE UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT WITH THE RIDGE IN
THE ATLANTIC AND MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO RIDE NEAR
OR OVER THE HIGHLANDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE STORM MOTION WILL BE
CLOSE TO 180 SO THERE WONT BE MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESSION. AREAS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SHOULD STAY DRY INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
FLOW VEERS TO 220 BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN SUBURBS OF DC AND
BALTIMORE BY SUNSET. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO
THE RIDGE STILL INFLUENCING THE AREA AND CLOUD COVER. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY SUB-SVR.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EARLY SUMMER WARMTH AND MOISTURE WL BE THE MAIN WX WORDS FOR THE
2ND HALF OF THE WK. HIGH PRES OFF THE CST AND FNTL BNDRY E OF THE
MS RVR WL KEEP THE E CST IN WARM HUMID AIR. MDLS ARE PUTTING OUT
SOME LKLY POPS. IT IS HARD TO WANT TO RAISE SUMMER CNVTCN POPS TO
THAT LVL SVRL DAYS IN ADVANCE - FOR THE TIME BEING WL KEEP POPS IN
CHC RANGE.

CLDS WL BE ON THE INCRS TUE AND RMN THRU THU. THIS WL KEEP
INSOLATION DOWN...BUT MOISTURE/SRLY FLOW WL ALSO BE KEEPING
NIGHTTIME WARMTH IN. HIGHS WL BE IN THE MU80S...LOWS IN THE MU60S
XCPT L70S IN THE CITIES.

A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY COULD STILL BE 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE A SECOND COLD FRONT...MODERATELY-STRONG...
APPROACHES THE REGION SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY COULD BE 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...REACHING THE UPPER 60S
AND NEAR 90...RESPECTIVELY.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS
IN DOING THIS. NONETHELESS...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND HIGHS SUNDAY WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE.

A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
COAST...HELPING TO COOL CONDITIONS DOWN A LITTLE. HOWEVER...
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND PASSING MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TO THE NORTH COULD BRING ANOTHER THREAT FOR RAIN
SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED. TEMPERATURES MAY BE A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. -SHRA/VCTS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY AT KIAD AND KCHO.

VFR MAJORITY OF THE TIME TUE NGT-THU. RW/TRW WL
BE PSBL... ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTN/ERLY EVE. SRLY WINDS WL GUST
INTO THE L20S DURG THE AFTN.

MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST
5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
S WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS
LOWER POTOMAC AND CHES BAY SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND. WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE TONIGHT ACROSS THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC AND CHESAPEAKE BAY
NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

SRLY FLOW WL CONT OVR THE WATERS TUE NGT-THU. SCA IN EFFECT TUE
NGT FOR THE LWR PTMC/MAIN PTN OF THE BAY. THIS WL LKLY NEED TO BE
XTND INTO WED. RW/TRW WL BE PSBL AS WELL.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ531-538-539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-
     537-540>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...WOODY!
AVIATION...LFR
MARINE...LFR




000
FXUS61 KPHI 260048
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
848 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST WEDNESDAY AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT TRIES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND STALL IN OUR VICINITY ON
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. A GENERAL SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED. SOME LOCATIONS WILL MAINTAIN
A 5 TO 10 MPH WIND WHILE OTHERS WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. WHILE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE SLOWLY, WE ARE NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY WIDESPREAD FOG OR HAZE OVERNIGHT. THE GAP BETWEEN
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT READINGS SHOULD REMAIN GREATER THAN 4F
AT MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ON TUE, THE WK CDFNT ASSOCD WITH THE LOW IN SERN CANADA WILL MOVE
MAINLY N OF THE AREA DURG THE AFTN HOURS. THIS FRONT AND
INCREASING MOISTURE WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHWRS/TSTMS, MAINLY OVER THE NWRN AREAS AND HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE GFS IS A BIT MORE BULLISH ON THE PRECIP THAN THE ECMWF,
NAM/WRF AND CMC. SO WHILE ITS PSBL FOR SOME PRECIP FURTHER S AND
E, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE CHANGES ATTM.

WITH TEMPS FCST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPR 80S DEW POINTS STILL LOOK
TO BE IN THE LOWER 60S, SO IT LOOKS TO BE HOT BUT COMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND WRF-NMMB/NAM INITIALIZATION LOOKED PRETTY GOOD WITH
NO CLEAR CUT WINNER. HOWEVER, THE DP/DT ON THE GFS RUN SHOWED A
SLOWER EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN WHICH WE TOOK INTO CONSIDERATION.
WE BASICALLY ARE GOING TO END MAY WITH TYPICAL JULY WEATHER,
WARMER AND MORE HUMID WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WHILE
THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES (NAM/EC PREFER WED OVER THU, GFS
PREFERS SAT OVER SUN) AS TO THE MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DAYS,
WE ARE GOING TO TAKE A COMBINATION OF CONSENSUS AND BIAS ADJUSTING
TO KEY ON THU AND SUN AS THE MOST CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAYS IN THE
LONG TERM AND SATURDAY THE RELATIVE LULL. REGARDLESS AFTER NOT
BEING ABLE TO BUY A THUNDERSTORM, ITS TOUGH TO FIND A DAY TO NOT
INCLUDE A THUNDERSTORM.

THERE IS ACTIVE CONVECTION IN THE GULF COASTS STATES AND THE MEAN
FLOW IS GOING TO TAKE IT TOWARD THE WESTERN PART OF OUR CWA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. WE CARRY SOME LOW POPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE
A MORE HUMID NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS NOT AS LOW.

ON WEDNESDAY, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COME CLOSER TO OUR CWA.
COUPLED WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS AND THE RELATIVE CORE OF WARMEST
AIR ALOFT (925MB ANALYSIS HAS IT OVER PA THIS MORNING, BUT MORE
SOUTH GROWN HEAT WILL LIKELY KEEP A STATUS QUO IN 850/925MB TEMPS
THRU WED) PASSING OVER OUR CWA WOULD BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR TSTMS
TO DEVELOP WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS WITHIN REACH. THE LATEST ECMWF
TAKES A SLIGHTLY FASTER TIMING THAN MOST OTHER MODELS. THIS BUCKS
THE TREND OF AN OVERALL SLOWER EVOLUTION THAT THE MODELS HAVE THRU
TODAY.

LOOKING AT MODELING SIMILARITIES VS DIFFERENCES, ALL OF THEM HAVE
THE MOST CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTION THERMODYNAMIC FEATURES IN THE
NWRN PART OF OUR CWA. THE GFS AND WRF-NMM AGREE ABOUT MID LEVEL
DRY AIR MAKING STORMS PULSIER. BUT FROM THERE KINEMATICALLY THERE
ARE TOO MANY DIFFERENCES WED VS THU TO RESOLVE AT THIS TIME AS TO
MORE ORGANIZATIONAL/STRONGER STORMS. GIVEN THE NWRN CONSENSUS WE
UPPED LATE POPS TO LIKELY, BUT ADDED NO ENHANCED WORDING. WHILE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG, HIGH PWATS WILL ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

TEMPERATURES, GIVEN DECENT WINDS ALOFT PLUS NO INDICATION OF A
DEW POINT POOLING IN OUR CWA, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS, STAT
GUIDANCE (AND MODEL GUIDANCE MORE CONFIDENTLY) IS LIKELY TOO HIGH
WITH AFTERNOON DEW POINTS, OR ANY SURPRISE WONT BE ON THE HIGH
SIDE. THIS BRINGS HEAT INDEX VALUES CLOSE TO AIR TEMPERATURES AND
LIKELY TOP IN THE LOWER 90S. WE ARE GOING WITH THE HIGHER NAM STAT
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS GIVEN ONGOING GFS STAT GUIDANCE COOL BIAS
WITH MAX TEMPS.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, CONVECTION WILL TRY TO SPREAD ACROSS OUR CWA.
THERE ARE PREDICTIONS OF SHORT WAVES, SO WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE
(NOT AS HIGH AS THE AFTERNOON THOUGH), GOING THRU THE NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ENTERING OUR CWA ON THURSDAY. WITH THE
WEAKENING BOUNDARY, THE MODELS ARE OFFERING DIFFERING OPINIONS AS
TO HOW ACTIVE THE FRONT CAN REMAIN. THE GFS IS MOST BULLISH AS IT
HAS DEEPER QVEC CONVERGENCE, BULK SHEAR AND ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
250 MB JET. THE OTHER MODELS ARE A BIT MORE DIFFUSE. REGARDLESS,
THE RELATIVELY HIGHER POPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL BE CENTERED IN
OUR CWA. AS THE MODELS ARE DIFFERING AS TO HOW ACTIVE, WE KEPT
POPS AS CHANCE. COMBINATION OF MORE UPWIND DEBRIS AS FRONTAL
PROXIMITY, AIR MASS IS SLIGHTLY COOLER ON THU. MAX TEMPS NUDGED
DOWN SLIGHTLY. DEW POINTS THOUGH SHOULD POOL MORE EFFICIENTLY SO
ZERO SUM GAIN WITH APPARENT TEMPS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD LINGER AND DISSIPATE OVER OUR CWA ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IT COULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR MORE
CONVECTION. BUT GIVEN, ITS DISSIPATING, OVERALL POPS ARE LOWER
THAN THURSDAY.

WE WILL KEY ON SUNDAY VS SATURDAY AS THE CONVECTIVELY MORE ACTIVE
DAY GIVEN THE BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS AND OVERALL TENDENCY FOR A
SLOWER TIMING. POPS HIT A RELATIVE LOW ON SATURDAY BEFORE RAMPING
UP AGAIN ON SUNDAY. ALSO GIVEN THE SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING, MAX
TEMPS ARE MUCH CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE AND EC MOS GUIDANCE THAN GFS
MOS. INITIAL LOOK AT MONDAY HAS THE FRONT STALLED JUST SOUTH OF
OUR CWA, THIS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY COOLER WITH STILL SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, GENERALLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF KRDG AND KABE.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT MAY
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN SPOTS. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND IS
ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY AT SPEEDS ABOUT 8 TO 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 16 TO 20 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WHILE PREDOMINATELY VFR, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL PRODUCE SOME MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR CONDITIONS
AT TIMES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS (THUS MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS) SHOULD BE LESS. THERE
COULD STILL BE SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
A SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NRN WATERS THRU TONIGHT. WIND CUD
GUST TO AROUND 25 KT AND SEAS CUD REACH AROUND 5 FT, THOUGH RIGHT
NOW BOTH WIND AND SEAS ARE BELOW CRITERIA. BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE, WILL NOT BE EXTENDING ENDING TIME.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
MIGHT PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS AND SEAS REACHING 5 FEET
ON THE OCEAN WATERS. USUALLY IN THESE SCENARIOS, THE MODELS TEND
TO BE TOO BULLISH. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR, BUT NOT CONFIDENT
TO EXTEND CURRENT ADVISORY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD BE BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS A WEAKER PRESSURE PATTERN SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOP 10 WARMEST MAY WILL OCCUR IN LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

THE FIRST 24 DAYS OF MAY IN OUR FORECAST AREA WERE AVERAGING
ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

RUNNING THE NUMBERS FROM THE FCST THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH WE
FIND THE FOLLOWING.

FOR PHILADELPHIA...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1874.
PROJECTING A MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 69 TO 70 RISING FROM
THE CURRENT VALUE OF 67.8, AT LEAST 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
HEADING FOR MOST LIKELY THE THIRD WARMEST MAY ON RECORD. WARMEST
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN MAY ON RECORD WAS 70.8 IN 1991. THEN 69.2
2004 AND 68.2 IN 2012.

FOR ALLENTOWN...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1922. THE MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IS CURRENTLY 63.9 DEGREES. IT IS LIKELY TO
INCREASE BY A DEGREE OR TWO LATER THIS WEEK, LEADING TO A TOP 10
WARMEST MAY THIS YEAR AT ALLENTOWN. THE WARMEST AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE IN MAY WAS 67.2 BACK IN 1991.

FOR WILMINGTON.... THE MONTH OF MAY IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE
TOP 5- 10 WARMEST. THE CURRENT MONTHLY TEMPERATURE IS 65.8 DEGREES
AND SHOULD RISE A DEGREE OR TWO BY MONTHS END. THE WARMEST MAY WAS
IN 1896 WHERE THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 70.1 DEGREES. IN 1991
THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 69.1 DEGREES.

FOR ATLANTIC CITY... THE MONTH IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE TOP
THREE WARMEST MAYS. CURRENTLY, THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE
MONTH IS 64.5 DEGREES AND IS LIKELY TO RISE A DEGREE TOR TWO BY
MONTHS END. THE WARMEST MAY WAS BACK IN 2004 WHERE THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE REACHED 66.9 DEGREES. IN 1991 THE MONTHLY AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE WAS 66 DEGREES. BOTH 2011 AND 2012 SAW A MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 65 DEGREES.

NORMAL FIRST DATE OF 90 OR HIGHER.

PHILADELPHIA MAY 29 ALLENTOWN MAY 30 WILMINGTON JUNE 4 ATLANTIC
CITY JUNE 11.

*************************************************************

HERE IS OUR ANNUAL LOOK AS TO HOW HOT, HOT, HOT THE SUMMER WILL
BE BASED ON PAST PERFORMANCES.

A FULL FLEDGED EL NINO IS UNDERWAY IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. ALL
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS KEEP IT GOING, THE DIFFERENCES
THAT EXIST ARE TO ITS STRENGTH THROUGH THIS UPCOMING SUMMER. THE
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS ARE AVERAGING A MODERATE EL NINO
FOR THE COMBINED SUMMER MONTHS. SOME MODELS, INCLUDING THE CFS2
AND ECMWF ARE PREDICTING A STRONG EL NINO. IN THE CPC MONITORING
EL NINO ERA STARTING SINCE 1950, THE HIGHEST (WARMEST) SUMMER
ANOMALY RECORDED WAS +1.5C (NEAR OR AT THE THRESHOLD FOR STRONG EL
NINOS) DURING THE SUMMER OF 1997.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL REALLY SEAL THE DEAL THAT THIS MAY WILL
BE UNSEASONABLY WARM IN PHILADELPHIA. IT "MAY" EVEN BE A TOP THREE
WARMEST. THIS FOLLOWS ON THE HEELS OF AN UNSEASONABLY WARM APRIL.
SINCE 1872, THE COMBINATION OF BOTH WARM (TOP THIRD OF ALL YEARS)
APRILS AND MAYS HAS ONLY OCCURRED TWENTY-THREE TIMES. BUT IT HAS
OCCURRED ELEVEN TIMES SINCE 1990 AND SIX OF THE LAST SEVEN
SPRINGS.

SO WE SCOURED THE CLIMATE RECORDS TO FIND BUDDING OR IN PROGRESS
EL NINOS THAT COINCIDED WITH BOTH WARM APRILS AND MAYS LOCALLY IN
THE CPC MONITORING ERA. WE FOUND THREE PAST SUMMERS THAT MET THE
CRITERIA. THE ONE SIGN IS THAT ALL THREE ANALOG SUMMERS WERE
WETTER THAN NORMAL, HOPEFULLY KEEPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS FROM
INTENSIFYING FURTHER.

THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE PREDICTIONS FOR THIS
UPCOMING SUMMER HAS WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER EXPECTED
IN OUR AREA. THE INTERNATIONAL MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE
SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC PREDICTING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION.

THE ANALOGS FOR PHILADELPHIA ARE:

YEAR    JUNE AVG   JULY AVG   AUGUST AVG   SUMMER AVG   SUMMER PCPN

1969      73.4        75.1      75.2         74.6        18.30
1977      68.6        77.8      76.2         74.2        15.50
1991      75.7        79.0      79.0         77.9        12.01
AVG       72.6        77.3      76.8         75.6        15.27

1981-
2010      73.3        78.1      76.6         76.0        11.28
NORMAL

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR OUR FORECAST AREA IS FOR EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>452.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIGI/KLEIN
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/IOVINO/KLEIN
MARINE...GIGI/KLEIN/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...DRAG/GAINES/GIGI/LAGUARDIA



000
FXUS61 KPHI 260048
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
848 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST WEDNESDAY AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT TRIES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND STALL IN OUR VICINITY ON
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. A GENERAL SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED. SOME LOCATIONS WILL MAINTAIN
A 5 TO 10 MPH WIND WHILE OTHERS WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. WHILE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE SLOWLY, WE ARE NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY WIDESPREAD FOG OR HAZE OVERNIGHT. THE GAP BETWEEN
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT READINGS SHOULD REMAIN GREATER THAN 4F
AT MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ON TUE, THE WK CDFNT ASSOCD WITH THE LOW IN SERN CANADA WILL MOVE
MAINLY N OF THE AREA DURG THE AFTN HOURS. THIS FRONT AND
INCREASING MOISTURE WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHWRS/TSTMS, MAINLY OVER THE NWRN AREAS AND HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE GFS IS A BIT MORE BULLISH ON THE PRECIP THAN THE ECMWF,
NAM/WRF AND CMC. SO WHILE ITS PSBL FOR SOME PRECIP FURTHER S AND
E, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE CHANGES ATTM.

WITH TEMPS FCST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPR 80S DEW POINTS STILL LOOK
TO BE IN THE LOWER 60S, SO IT LOOKS TO BE HOT BUT COMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND WRF-NMMB/NAM INITIALIZATION LOOKED PRETTY GOOD WITH
NO CLEAR CUT WINNER. HOWEVER, THE DP/DT ON THE GFS RUN SHOWED A
SLOWER EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN WHICH WE TOOK INTO CONSIDERATION.
WE BASICALLY ARE GOING TO END MAY WITH TYPICAL JULY WEATHER,
WARMER AND MORE HUMID WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WHILE
THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES (NAM/EC PREFER WED OVER THU, GFS
PREFERS SAT OVER SUN) AS TO THE MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DAYS,
WE ARE GOING TO TAKE A COMBINATION OF CONSENSUS AND BIAS ADJUSTING
TO KEY ON THU AND SUN AS THE MOST CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAYS IN THE
LONG TERM AND SATURDAY THE RELATIVE LULL. REGARDLESS AFTER NOT
BEING ABLE TO BUY A THUNDERSTORM, ITS TOUGH TO FIND A DAY TO NOT
INCLUDE A THUNDERSTORM.

THERE IS ACTIVE CONVECTION IN THE GULF COASTS STATES AND THE MEAN
FLOW IS GOING TO TAKE IT TOWARD THE WESTERN PART OF OUR CWA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. WE CARRY SOME LOW POPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE
A MORE HUMID NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS NOT AS LOW.

ON WEDNESDAY, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COME CLOSER TO OUR CWA.
COUPLED WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS AND THE RELATIVE CORE OF WARMEST
AIR ALOFT (925MB ANALYSIS HAS IT OVER PA THIS MORNING, BUT MORE
SOUTH GROWN HEAT WILL LIKELY KEEP A STATUS QUO IN 850/925MB TEMPS
THRU WED) PASSING OVER OUR CWA WOULD BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR TSTMS
TO DEVELOP WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS WITHIN REACH. THE LATEST ECMWF
TAKES A SLIGHTLY FASTER TIMING THAN MOST OTHER MODELS. THIS BUCKS
THE TREND OF AN OVERALL SLOWER EVOLUTION THAT THE MODELS HAVE THRU
TODAY.

LOOKING AT MODELING SIMILARITIES VS DIFFERENCES, ALL OF THEM HAVE
THE MOST CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTION THERMODYNAMIC FEATURES IN THE
NWRN PART OF OUR CWA. THE GFS AND WRF-NMM AGREE ABOUT MID LEVEL
DRY AIR MAKING STORMS PULSIER. BUT FROM THERE KINEMATICALLY THERE
ARE TOO MANY DIFFERENCES WED VS THU TO RESOLVE AT THIS TIME AS TO
MORE ORGANIZATIONAL/STRONGER STORMS. GIVEN THE NWRN CONSENSUS WE
UPPED LATE POPS TO LIKELY, BUT ADDED NO ENHANCED WORDING. WHILE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG, HIGH PWATS WILL ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

TEMPERATURES, GIVEN DECENT WINDS ALOFT PLUS NO INDICATION OF A
DEW POINT POOLING IN OUR CWA, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS, STAT
GUIDANCE (AND MODEL GUIDANCE MORE CONFIDENTLY) IS LIKELY TOO HIGH
WITH AFTERNOON DEW POINTS, OR ANY SURPRISE WONT BE ON THE HIGH
SIDE. THIS BRINGS HEAT INDEX VALUES CLOSE TO AIR TEMPERATURES AND
LIKELY TOP IN THE LOWER 90S. WE ARE GOING WITH THE HIGHER NAM STAT
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS GIVEN ONGOING GFS STAT GUIDANCE COOL BIAS
WITH MAX TEMPS.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, CONVECTION WILL TRY TO SPREAD ACROSS OUR CWA.
THERE ARE PREDICTIONS OF SHORT WAVES, SO WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE
(NOT AS HIGH AS THE AFTERNOON THOUGH), GOING THRU THE NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ENTERING OUR CWA ON THURSDAY. WITH THE
WEAKENING BOUNDARY, THE MODELS ARE OFFERING DIFFERING OPINIONS AS
TO HOW ACTIVE THE FRONT CAN REMAIN. THE GFS IS MOST BULLISH AS IT
HAS DEEPER QVEC CONVERGENCE, BULK SHEAR AND ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
250 MB JET. THE OTHER MODELS ARE A BIT MORE DIFFUSE. REGARDLESS,
THE RELATIVELY HIGHER POPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL BE CENTERED IN
OUR CWA. AS THE MODELS ARE DIFFERING AS TO HOW ACTIVE, WE KEPT
POPS AS CHANCE. COMBINATION OF MORE UPWIND DEBRIS AS FRONTAL
PROXIMITY, AIR MASS IS SLIGHTLY COOLER ON THU. MAX TEMPS NUDGED
DOWN SLIGHTLY. DEW POINTS THOUGH SHOULD POOL MORE EFFICIENTLY SO
ZERO SUM GAIN WITH APPARENT TEMPS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD LINGER AND DISSIPATE OVER OUR CWA ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IT COULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR MORE
CONVECTION. BUT GIVEN, ITS DISSIPATING, OVERALL POPS ARE LOWER
THAN THURSDAY.

WE WILL KEY ON SUNDAY VS SATURDAY AS THE CONVECTIVELY MORE ACTIVE
DAY GIVEN THE BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS AND OVERALL TENDENCY FOR A
SLOWER TIMING. POPS HIT A RELATIVE LOW ON SATURDAY BEFORE RAMPING
UP AGAIN ON SUNDAY. ALSO GIVEN THE SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING, MAX
TEMPS ARE MUCH CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE AND EC MOS GUIDANCE THAN GFS
MOS. INITIAL LOOK AT MONDAY HAS THE FRONT STALLED JUST SOUTH OF
OUR CWA, THIS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY COOLER WITH STILL SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, GENERALLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF KRDG AND KABE.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT MAY
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN SPOTS. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND IS
ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY AT SPEEDS ABOUT 8 TO 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 16 TO 20 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WHILE PREDOMINATELY VFR, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL PRODUCE SOME MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR CONDITIONS
AT TIMES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS (THUS MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS) SHOULD BE LESS. THERE
COULD STILL BE SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
A SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NRN WATERS THRU TONIGHT. WIND CUD
GUST TO AROUND 25 KT AND SEAS CUD REACH AROUND 5 FT, THOUGH RIGHT
NOW BOTH WIND AND SEAS ARE BELOW CRITERIA. BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE, WILL NOT BE EXTENDING ENDING TIME.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
MIGHT PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS AND SEAS REACHING 5 FEET
ON THE OCEAN WATERS. USUALLY IN THESE SCENARIOS, THE MODELS TEND
TO BE TOO BULLISH. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR, BUT NOT CONFIDENT
TO EXTEND CURRENT ADVISORY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD BE BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS A WEAKER PRESSURE PATTERN SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOP 10 WARMEST MAY WILL OCCUR IN LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

THE FIRST 24 DAYS OF MAY IN OUR FORECAST AREA WERE AVERAGING
ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

RUNNING THE NUMBERS FROM THE FCST THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH WE
FIND THE FOLLOWING.

FOR PHILADELPHIA...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1874.
PROJECTING A MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 69 TO 70 RISING FROM
THE CURRENT VALUE OF 67.8, AT LEAST 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
HEADING FOR MOST LIKELY THE THIRD WARMEST MAY ON RECORD. WARMEST
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN MAY ON RECORD WAS 70.8 IN 1991. THEN 69.2
2004 AND 68.2 IN 2012.

FOR ALLENTOWN...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1922. THE MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IS CURRENTLY 63.9 DEGREES. IT IS LIKELY TO
INCREASE BY A DEGREE OR TWO LATER THIS WEEK, LEADING TO A TOP 10
WARMEST MAY THIS YEAR AT ALLENTOWN. THE WARMEST AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE IN MAY WAS 67.2 BACK IN 1991.

FOR WILMINGTON.... THE MONTH OF MAY IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE
TOP 5- 10 WARMEST. THE CURRENT MONTHLY TEMPERATURE IS 65.8 DEGREES
AND SHOULD RISE A DEGREE OR TWO BY MONTHS END. THE WARMEST MAY WAS
IN 1896 WHERE THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 70.1 DEGREES. IN 1991
THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 69.1 DEGREES.

FOR ATLANTIC CITY... THE MONTH IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE TOP
THREE WARMEST MAYS. CURRENTLY, THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE
MONTH IS 64.5 DEGREES AND IS LIKELY TO RISE A DEGREE TOR TWO BY
MONTHS END. THE WARMEST MAY WAS BACK IN 2004 WHERE THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE REACHED 66.9 DEGREES. IN 1991 THE MONTHLY AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE WAS 66 DEGREES. BOTH 2011 AND 2012 SAW A MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 65 DEGREES.

NORMAL FIRST DATE OF 90 OR HIGHER.

PHILADELPHIA MAY 29 ALLENTOWN MAY 30 WILMINGTON JUNE 4 ATLANTIC
CITY JUNE 11.

*************************************************************

HERE IS OUR ANNUAL LOOK AS TO HOW HOT, HOT, HOT THE SUMMER WILL
BE BASED ON PAST PERFORMANCES.

A FULL FLEDGED EL NINO IS UNDERWAY IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. ALL
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS KEEP IT GOING, THE DIFFERENCES
THAT EXIST ARE TO ITS STRENGTH THROUGH THIS UPCOMING SUMMER. THE
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS ARE AVERAGING A MODERATE EL NINO
FOR THE COMBINED SUMMER MONTHS. SOME MODELS, INCLUDING THE CFS2
AND ECMWF ARE PREDICTING A STRONG EL NINO. IN THE CPC MONITORING
EL NINO ERA STARTING SINCE 1950, THE HIGHEST (WARMEST) SUMMER
ANOMALY RECORDED WAS +1.5C (NEAR OR AT THE THRESHOLD FOR STRONG EL
NINOS) DURING THE SUMMER OF 1997.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL REALLY SEAL THE DEAL THAT THIS MAY WILL
BE UNSEASONABLY WARM IN PHILADELPHIA. IT "MAY" EVEN BE A TOP THREE
WARMEST. THIS FOLLOWS ON THE HEELS OF AN UNSEASONABLY WARM APRIL.
SINCE 1872, THE COMBINATION OF BOTH WARM (TOP THIRD OF ALL YEARS)
APRILS AND MAYS HAS ONLY OCCURRED TWENTY-THREE TIMES. BUT IT HAS
OCCURRED ELEVEN TIMES SINCE 1990 AND SIX OF THE LAST SEVEN
SPRINGS.

SO WE SCOURED THE CLIMATE RECORDS TO FIND BUDDING OR IN PROGRESS
EL NINOS THAT COINCIDED WITH BOTH WARM APRILS AND MAYS LOCALLY IN
THE CPC MONITORING ERA. WE FOUND THREE PAST SUMMERS THAT MET THE
CRITERIA. THE ONE SIGN IS THAT ALL THREE ANALOG SUMMERS WERE
WETTER THAN NORMAL, HOPEFULLY KEEPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS FROM
INTENSIFYING FURTHER.

THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE PREDICTIONS FOR THIS
UPCOMING SUMMER HAS WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER EXPECTED
IN OUR AREA. THE INTERNATIONAL MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE
SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC PREDICTING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION.

THE ANALOGS FOR PHILADELPHIA ARE:

YEAR    JUNE AVG   JULY AVG   AUGUST AVG   SUMMER AVG   SUMMER PCPN

1969      73.4        75.1      75.2         74.6        18.30
1977      68.6        77.8      76.2         74.2        15.50
1991      75.7        79.0      79.0         77.9        12.01
AVG       72.6        77.3      76.8         75.6        15.27

1981-
2010      73.3        78.1      76.6         76.0        11.28
NORMAL

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR OUR FORECAST AREA IS FOR EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>452.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIGI/KLEIN
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/IOVINO/KLEIN
MARINE...GIGI/KLEIN/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...DRAG/GAINES/GIGI/LAGUARDIA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 260048
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
848 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST WEDNESDAY AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT TRIES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND STALL IN OUR VICINITY ON
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. A GENERAL SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED. SOME LOCATIONS WILL MAINTAIN
A 5 TO 10 MPH WIND WHILE OTHERS WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. WHILE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE SLOWLY, WE ARE NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY WIDESPREAD FOG OR HAZE OVERNIGHT. THE GAP BETWEEN
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT READINGS SHOULD REMAIN GREATER THAN 4F
AT MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ON TUE, THE WK CDFNT ASSOCD WITH THE LOW IN SERN CANADA WILL MOVE
MAINLY N OF THE AREA DURG THE AFTN HOURS. THIS FRONT AND
INCREASING MOISTURE WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHWRS/TSTMS, MAINLY OVER THE NWRN AREAS AND HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE GFS IS A BIT MORE BULLISH ON THE PRECIP THAN THE ECMWF,
NAM/WRF AND CMC. SO WHILE ITS PSBL FOR SOME PRECIP FURTHER S AND
E, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE CHANGES ATTM.

WITH TEMPS FCST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPR 80S DEW POINTS STILL LOOK
TO BE IN THE LOWER 60S, SO IT LOOKS TO BE HOT BUT COMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND WRF-NMMB/NAM INITIALIZATION LOOKED PRETTY GOOD WITH
NO CLEAR CUT WINNER. HOWEVER, THE DP/DT ON THE GFS RUN SHOWED A
SLOWER EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN WHICH WE TOOK INTO CONSIDERATION.
WE BASICALLY ARE GOING TO END MAY WITH TYPICAL JULY WEATHER,
WARMER AND MORE HUMID WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WHILE
THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES (NAM/EC PREFER WED OVER THU, GFS
PREFERS SAT OVER SUN) AS TO THE MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DAYS,
WE ARE GOING TO TAKE A COMBINATION OF CONSENSUS AND BIAS ADJUSTING
TO KEY ON THU AND SUN AS THE MOST CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAYS IN THE
LONG TERM AND SATURDAY THE RELATIVE LULL. REGARDLESS AFTER NOT
BEING ABLE TO BUY A THUNDERSTORM, ITS TOUGH TO FIND A DAY TO NOT
INCLUDE A THUNDERSTORM.

THERE IS ACTIVE CONVECTION IN THE GULF COASTS STATES AND THE MEAN
FLOW IS GOING TO TAKE IT TOWARD THE WESTERN PART OF OUR CWA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. WE CARRY SOME LOW POPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE
A MORE HUMID NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS NOT AS LOW.

ON WEDNESDAY, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COME CLOSER TO OUR CWA.
COUPLED WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS AND THE RELATIVE CORE OF WARMEST
AIR ALOFT (925MB ANALYSIS HAS IT OVER PA THIS MORNING, BUT MORE
SOUTH GROWN HEAT WILL LIKELY KEEP A STATUS QUO IN 850/925MB TEMPS
THRU WED) PASSING OVER OUR CWA WOULD BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR TSTMS
TO DEVELOP WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS WITHIN REACH. THE LATEST ECMWF
TAKES A SLIGHTLY FASTER TIMING THAN MOST OTHER MODELS. THIS BUCKS
THE TREND OF AN OVERALL SLOWER EVOLUTION THAT THE MODELS HAVE THRU
TODAY.

LOOKING AT MODELING SIMILARITIES VS DIFFERENCES, ALL OF THEM HAVE
THE MOST CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTION THERMODYNAMIC FEATURES IN THE
NWRN PART OF OUR CWA. THE GFS AND WRF-NMM AGREE ABOUT MID LEVEL
DRY AIR MAKING STORMS PULSIER. BUT FROM THERE KINEMATICALLY THERE
ARE TOO MANY DIFFERENCES WED VS THU TO RESOLVE AT THIS TIME AS TO
MORE ORGANIZATIONAL/STRONGER STORMS. GIVEN THE NWRN CONSENSUS WE
UPPED LATE POPS TO LIKELY, BUT ADDED NO ENHANCED WORDING. WHILE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG, HIGH PWATS WILL ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

TEMPERATURES, GIVEN DECENT WINDS ALOFT PLUS NO INDICATION OF A
DEW POINT POOLING IN OUR CWA, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS, STAT
GUIDANCE (AND MODEL GUIDANCE MORE CONFIDENTLY) IS LIKELY TOO HIGH
WITH AFTERNOON DEW POINTS, OR ANY SURPRISE WONT BE ON THE HIGH
SIDE. THIS BRINGS HEAT INDEX VALUES CLOSE TO AIR TEMPERATURES AND
LIKELY TOP IN THE LOWER 90S. WE ARE GOING WITH THE HIGHER NAM STAT
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS GIVEN ONGOING GFS STAT GUIDANCE COOL BIAS
WITH MAX TEMPS.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, CONVECTION WILL TRY TO SPREAD ACROSS OUR CWA.
THERE ARE PREDICTIONS OF SHORT WAVES, SO WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE
(NOT AS HIGH AS THE AFTERNOON THOUGH), GOING THRU THE NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ENTERING OUR CWA ON THURSDAY. WITH THE
WEAKENING BOUNDARY, THE MODELS ARE OFFERING DIFFERING OPINIONS AS
TO HOW ACTIVE THE FRONT CAN REMAIN. THE GFS IS MOST BULLISH AS IT
HAS DEEPER QVEC CONVERGENCE, BULK SHEAR AND ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
250 MB JET. THE OTHER MODELS ARE A BIT MORE DIFFUSE. REGARDLESS,
THE RELATIVELY HIGHER POPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL BE CENTERED IN
OUR CWA. AS THE MODELS ARE DIFFERING AS TO HOW ACTIVE, WE KEPT
POPS AS CHANCE. COMBINATION OF MORE UPWIND DEBRIS AS FRONTAL
PROXIMITY, AIR MASS IS SLIGHTLY COOLER ON THU. MAX TEMPS NUDGED
DOWN SLIGHTLY. DEW POINTS THOUGH SHOULD POOL MORE EFFICIENTLY SO
ZERO SUM GAIN WITH APPARENT TEMPS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD LINGER AND DISSIPATE OVER OUR CWA ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IT COULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR MORE
CONVECTION. BUT GIVEN, ITS DISSIPATING, OVERALL POPS ARE LOWER
THAN THURSDAY.

WE WILL KEY ON SUNDAY VS SATURDAY AS THE CONVECTIVELY MORE ACTIVE
DAY GIVEN THE BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS AND OVERALL TENDENCY FOR A
SLOWER TIMING. POPS HIT A RELATIVE LOW ON SATURDAY BEFORE RAMPING
UP AGAIN ON SUNDAY. ALSO GIVEN THE SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING, MAX
TEMPS ARE MUCH CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE AND EC MOS GUIDANCE THAN GFS
MOS. INITIAL LOOK AT MONDAY HAS THE FRONT STALLED JUST SOUTH OF
OUR CWA, THIS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY COOLER WITH STILL SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, GENERALLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF KRDG AND KABE.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT MAY
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN SPOTS. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND IS
ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY AT SPEEDS ABOUT 8 TO 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 16 TO 20 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WHILE PREDOMINATELY VFR, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL PRODUCE SOME MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR CONDITIONS
AT TIMES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS (THUS MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS) SHOULD BE LESS. THERE
COULD STILL BE SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
A SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NRN WATERS THRU TONIGHT. WIND CUD
GUST TO AROUND 25 KT AND SEAS CUD REACH AROUND 5 FT, THOUGH RIGHT
NOW BOTH WIND AND SEAS ARE BELOW CRITERIA. BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE, WILL NOT BE EXTENDING ENDING TIME.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
MIGHT PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS AND SEAS REACHING 5 FEET
ON THE OCEAN WATERS. USUALLY IN THESE SCENARIOS, THE MODELS TEND
TO BE TOO BULLISH. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR, BUT NOT CONFIDENT
TO EXTEND CURRENT ADVISORY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD BE BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS A WEAKER PRESSURE PATTERN SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOP 10 WARMEST MAY WILL OCCUR IN LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

THE FIRST 24 DAYS OF MAY IN OUR FORECAST AREA WERE AVERAGING
ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

RUNNING THE NUMBERS FROM THE FCST THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH WE
FIND THE FOLLOWING.

FOR PHILADELPHIA...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1874.
PROJECTING A MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 69 TO 70 RISING FROM
THE CURRENT VALUE OF 67.8, AT LEAST 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
HEADING FOR MOST LIKELY THE THIRD WARMEST MAY ON RECORD. WARMEST
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN MAY ON RECORD WAS 70.8 IN 1991. THEN 69.2
2004 AND 68.2 IN 2012.

FOR ALLENTOWN...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1922. THE MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IS CURRENTLY 63.9 DEGREES. IT IS LIKELY TO
INCREASE BY A DEGREE OR TWO LATER THIS WEEK, LEADING TO A TOP 10
WARMEST MAY THIS YEAR AT ALLENTOWN. THE WARMEST AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE IN MAY WAS 67.2 BACK IN 1991.

FOR WILMINGTON.... THE MONTH OF MAY IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE
TOP 5- 10 WARMEST. THE CURRENT MONTHLY TEMPERATURE IS 65.8 DEGREES
AND SHOULD RISE A DEGREE OR TWO BY MONTHS END. THE WARMEST MAY WAS
IN 1896 WHERE THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 70.1 DEGREES. IN 1991
THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 69.1 DEGREES.

FOR ATLANTIC CITY... THE MONTH IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE TOP
THREE WARMEST MAYS. CURRENTLY, THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE
MONTH IS 64.5 DEGREES AND IS LIKELY TO RISE A DEGREE TOR TWO BY
MONTHS END. THE WARMEST MAY WAS BACK IN 2004 WHERE THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE REACHED 66.9 DEGREES. IN 1991 THE MONTHLY AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE WAS 66 DEGREES. BOTH 2011 AND 2012 SAW A MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 65 DEGREES.

NORMAL FIRST DATE OF 90 OR HIGHER.

PHILADELPHIA MAY 29 ALLENTOWN MAY 30 WILMINGTON JUNE 4 ATLANTIC
CITY JUNE 11.

*************************************************************

HERE IS OUR ANNUAL LOOK AS TO HOW HOT, HOT, HOT THE SUMMER WILL
BE BASED ON PAST PERFORMANCES.

A FULL FLEDGED EL NINO IS UNDERWAY IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. ALL
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS KEEP IT GOING, THE DIFFERENCES
THAT EXIST ARE TO ITS STRENGTH THROUGH THIS UPCOMING SUMMER. THE
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS ARE AVERAGING A MODERATE EL NINO
FOR THE COMBINED SUMMER MONTHS. SOME MODELS, INCLUDING THE CFS2
AND ECMWF ARE PREDICTING A STRONG EL NINO. IN THE CPC MONITORING
EL NINO ERA STARTING SINCE 1950, THE HIGHEST (WARMEST) SUMMER
ANOMALY RECORDED WAS +1.5C (NEAR OR AT THE THRESHOLD FOR STRONG EL
NINOS) DURING THE SUMMER OF 1997.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL REALLY SEAL THE DEAL THAT THIS MAY WILL
BE UNSEASONABLY WARM IN PHILADELPHIA. IT "MAY" EVEN BE A TOP THREE
WARMEST. THIS FOLLOWS ON THE HEELS OF AN UNSEASONABLY WARM APRIL.
SINCE 1872, THE COMBINATION OF BOTH WARM (TOP THIRD OF ALL YEARS)
APRILS AND MAYS HAS ONLY OCCURRED TWENTY-THREE TIMES. BUT IT HAS
OCCURRED ELEVEN TIMES SINCE 1990 AND SIX OF THE LAST SEVEN
SPRINGS.

SO WE SCOURED THE CLIMATE RECORDS TO FIND BUDDING OR IN PROGRESS
EL NINOS THAT COINCIDED WITH BOTH WARM APRILS AND MAYS LOCALLY IN
THE CPC MONITORING ERA. WE FOUND THREE PAST SUMMERS THAT MET THE
CRITERIA. THE ONE SIGN IS THAT ALL THREE ANALOG SUMMERS WERE
WETTER THAN NORMAL, HOPEFULLY KEEPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS FROM
INTENSIFYING FURTHER.

THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE PREDICTIONS FOR THIS
UPCOMING SUMMER HAS WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER EXPECTED
IN OUR AREA. THE INTERNATIONAL MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE
SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC PREDICTING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION.

THE ANALOGS FOR PHILADELPHIA ARE:

YEAR    JUNE AVG   JULY AVG   AUGUST AVG   SUMMER AVG   SUMMER PCPN

1969      73.4        75.1      75.2         74.6        18.30
1977      68.6        77.8      76.2         74.2        15.50
1991      75.7        79.0      79.0         77.9        12.01
AVG       72.6        77.3      76.8         75.6        15.27

1981-
2010      73.3        78.1      76.6         76.0        11.28
NORMAL

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR OUR FORECAST AREA IS FOR EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>452.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIGI/KLEIN
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/IOVINO/KLEIN
MARINE...GIGI/KLEIN/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...DRAG/GAINES/GIGI/LAGUARDIA



000
FXUS61 KPHI 260048
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
848 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST WEDNESDAY AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT TRIES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND STALL IN OUR VICINITY ON
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. A GENERAL SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED. SOME LOCATIONS WILL MAINTAIN
A 5 TO 10 MPH WIND WHILE OTHERS WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. WHILE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE SLOWLY, WE ARE NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY WIDESPREAD FOG OR HAZE OVERNIGHT. THE GAP BETWEEN
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT READINGS SHOULD REMAIN GREATER THAN 4F
AT MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ON TUE, THE WK CDFNT ASSOCD WITH THE LOW IN SERN CANADA WILL MOVE
MAINLY N OF THE AREA DURG THE AFTN HOURS. THIS FRONT AND
INCREASING MOISTURE WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHWRS/TSTMS, MAINLY OVER THE NWRN AREAS AND HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE GFS IS A BIT MORE BULLISH ON THE PRECIP THAN THE ECMWF,
NAM/WRF AND CMC. SO WHILE ITS PSBL FOR SOME PRECIP FURTHER S AND
E, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE CHANGES ATTM.

WITH TEMPS FCST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPR 80S DEW POINTS STILL LOOK
TO BE IN THE LOWER 60S, SO IT LOOKS TO BE HOT BUT COMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND WRF-NMMB/NAM INITIALIZATION LOOKED PRETTY GOOD WITH
NO CLEAR CUT WINNER. HOWEVER, THE DP/DT ON THE GFS RUN SHOWED A
SLOWER EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN WHICH WE TOOK INTO CONSIDERATION.
WE BASICALLY ARE GOING TO END MAY WITH TYPICAL JULY WEATHER,
WARMER AND MORE HUMID WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WHILE
THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES (NAM/EC PREFER WED OVER THU, GFS
PREFERS SAT OVER SUN) AS TO THE MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DAYS,
WE ARE GOING TO TAKE A COMBINATION OF CONSENSUS AND BIAS ADJUSTING
TO KEY ON THU AND SUN AS THE MOST CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAYS IN THE
LONG TERM AND SATURDAY THE RELATIVE LULL. REGARDLESS AFTER NOT
BEING ABLE TO BUY A THUNDERSTORM, ITS TOUGH TO FIND A DAY TO NOT
INCLUDE A THUNDERSTORM.

THERE IS ACTIVE CONVECTION IN THE GULF COASTS STATES AND THE MEAN
FLOW IS GOING TO TAKE IT TOWARD THE WESTERN PART OF OUR CWA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. WE CARRY SOME LOW POPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE
A MORE HUMID NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS NOT AS LOW.

ON WEDNESDAY, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COME CLOSER TO OUR CWA.
COUPLED WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS AND THE RELATIVE CORE OF WARMEST
AIR ALOFT (925MB ANALYSIS HAS IT OVER PA THIS MORNING, BUT MORE
SOUTH GROWN HEAT WILL LIKELY KEEP A STATUS QUO IN 850/925MB TEMPS
THRU WED) PASSING OVER OUR CWA WOULD BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR TSTMS
TO DEVELOP WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS WITHIN REACH. THE LATEST ECMWF
TAKES A SLIGHTLY FASTER TIMING THAN MOST OTHER MODELS. THIS BUCKS
THE TREND OF AN OVERALL SLOWER EVOLUTION THAT THE MODELS HAVE THRU
TODAY.

LOOKING AT MODELING SIMILARITIES VS DIFFERENCES, ALL OF THEM HAVE
THE MOST CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTION THERMODYNAMIC FEATURES IN THE
NWRN PART OF OUR CWA. THE GFS AND WRF-NMM AGREE ABOUT MID LEVEL
DRY AIR MAKING STORMS PULSIER. BUT FROM THERE KINEMATICALLY THERE
ARE TOO MANY DIFFERENCES WED VS THU TO RESOLVE AT THIS TIME AS TO
MORE ORGANIZATIONAL/STRONGER STORMS. GIVEN THE NWRN CONSENSUS WE
UPPED LATE POPS TO LIKELY, BUT ADDED NO ENHANCED WORDING. WHILE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG, HIGH PWATS WILL ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

TEMPERATURES, GIVEN DECENT WINDS ALOFT PLUS NO INDICATION OF A
DEW POINT POOLING IN OUR CWA, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS, STAT
GUIDANCE (AND MODEL GUIDANCE MORE CONFIDENTLY) IS LIKELY TOO HIGH
WITH AFTERNOON DEW POINTS, OR ANY SURPRISE WONT BE ON THE HIGH
SIDE. THIS BRINGS HEAT INDEX VALUES CLOSE TO AIR TEMPERATURES AND
LIKELY TOP IN THE LOWER 90S. WE ARE GOING WITH THE HIGHER NAM STAT
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS GIVEN ONGOING GFS STAT GUIDANCE COOL BIAS
WITH MAX TEMPS.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, CONVECTION WILL TRY TO SPREAD ACROSS OUR CWA.
THERE ARE PREDICTIONS OF SHORT WAVES, SO WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE
(NOT AS HIGH AS THE AFTERNOON THOUGH), GOING THRU THE NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ENTERING OUR CWA ON THURSDAY. WITH THE
WEAKENING BOUNDARY, THE MODELS ARE OFFERING DIFFERING OPINIONS AS
TO HOW ACTIVE THE FRONT CAN REMAIN. THE GFS IS MOST BULLISH AS IT
HAS DEEPER QVEC CONVERGENCE, BULK SHEAR AND ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
250 MB JET. THE OTHER MODELS ARE A BIT MORE DIFFUSE. REGARDLESS,
THE RELATIVELY HIGHER POPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL BE CENTERED IN
OUR CWA. AS THE MODELS ARE DIFFERING AS TO HOW ACTIVE, WE KEPT
POPS AS CHANCE. COMBINATION OF MORE UPWIND DEBRIS AS FRONTAL
PROXIMITY, AIR MASS IS SLIGHTLY COOLER ON THU. MAX TEMPS NUDGED
DOWN SLIGHTLY. DEW POINTS THOUGH SHOULD POOL MORE EFFICIENTLY SO
ZERO SUM GAIN WITH APPARENT TEMPS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD LINGER AND DISSIPATE OVER OUR CWA ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IT COULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR MORE
CONVECTION. BUT GIVEN, ITS DISSIPATING, OVERALL POPS ARE LOWER
THAN THURSDAY.

WE WILL KEY ON SUNDAY VS SATURDAY AS THE CONVECTIVELY MORE ACTIVE
DAY GIVEN THE BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS AND OVERALL TENDENCY FOR A
SLOWER TIMING. POPS HIT A RELATIVE LOW ON SATURDAY BEFORE RAMPING
UP AGAIN ON SUNDAY. ALSO GIVEN THE SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING, MAX
TEMPS ARE MUCH CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE AND EC MOS GUIDANCE THAN GFS
MOS. INITIAL LOOK AT MONDAY HAS THE FRONT STALLED JUST SOUTH OF
OUR CWA, THIS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY COOLER WITH STILL SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, GENERALLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF KRDG AND KABE.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT MAY
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN SPOTS. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND IS
ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY AT SPEEDS ABOUT 8 TO 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 16 TO 20 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WHILE PREDOMINATELY VFR, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL PRODUCE SOME MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR CONDITIONS
AT TIMES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS (THUS MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS) SHOULD BE LESS. THERE
COULD STILL BE SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
A SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NRN WATERS THRU TONIGHT. WIND CUD
GUST TO AROUND 25 KT AND SEAS CUD REACH AROUND 5 FT, THOUGH RIGHT
NOW BOTH WIND AND SEAS ARE BELOW CRITERIA. BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE, WILL NOT BE EXTENDING ENDING TIME.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
MIGHT PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS AND SEAS REACHING 5 FEET
ON THE OCEAN WATERS. USUALLY IN THESE SCENARIOS, THE MODELS TEND
TO BE TOO BULLISH. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR, BUT NOT CONFIDENT
TO EXTEND CURRENT ADVISORY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD BE BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS A WEAKER PRESSURE PATTERN SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOP 10 WARMEST MAY WILL OCCUR IN LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

THE FIRST 24 DAYS OF MAY IN OUR FORECAST AREA WERE AVERAGING
ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

RUNNING THE NUMBERS FROM THE FCST THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH WE
FIND THE FOLLOWING.

FOR PHILADELPHIA...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1874.
PROJECTING A MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 69 TO 70 RISING FROM
THE CURRENT VALUE OF 67.8, AT LEAST 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
HEADING FOR MOST LIKELY THE THIRD WARMEST MAY ON RECORD. WARMEST
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN MAY ON RECORD WAS 70.8 IN 1991. THEN 69.2
2004 AND 68.2 IN 2012.

FOR ALLENTOWN...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1922. THE MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IS CURRENTLY 63.9 DEGREES. IT IS LIKELY TO
INCREASE BY A DEGREE OR TWO LATER THIS WEEK, LEADING TO A TOP 10
WARMEST MAY THIS YEAR AT ALLENTOWN. THE WARMEST AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE IN MAY WAS 67.2 BACK IN 1991.

FOR WILMINGTON.... THE MONTH OF MAY IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE
TOP 5- 10 WARMEST. THE CURRENT MONTHLY TEMPERATURE IS 65.8 DEGREES
AND SHOULD RISE A DEGREE OR TWO BY MONTHS END. THE WARMEST MAY WAS
IN 1896 WHERE THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 70.1 DEGREES. IN 1991
THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 69.1 DEGREES.

FOR ATLANTIC CITY... THE MONTH IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE TOP
THREE WARMEST MAYS. CURRENTLY, THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE
MONTH IS 64.5 DEGREES AND IS LIKELY TO RISE A DEGREE TOR TWO BY
MONTHS END. THE WARMEST MAY WAS BACK IN 2004 WHERE THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE REACHED 66.9 DEGREES. IN 1991 THE MONTHLY AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE WAS 66 DEGREES. BOTH 2011 AND 2012 SAW A MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 65 DEGREES.

NORMAL FIRST DATE OF 90 OR HIGHER.

PHILADELPHIA MAY 29 ALLENTOWN MAY 30 WILMINGTON JUNE 4 ATLANTIC
CITY JUNE 11.

*************************************************************

HERE IS OUR ANNUAL LOOK AS TO HOW HOT, HOT, HOT THE SUMMER WILL
BE BASED ON PAST PERFORMANCES.

A FULL FLEDGED EL NINO IS UNDERWAY IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. ALL
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS KEEP IT GOING, THE DIFFERENCES
THAT EXIST ARE TO ITS STRENGTH THROUGH THIS UPCOMING SUMMER. THE
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS ARE AVERAGING A MODERATE EL NINO
FOR THE COMBINED SUMMER MONTHS. SOME MODELS, INCLUDING THE CFS2
AND ECMWF ARE PREDICTING A STRONG EL NINO. IN THE CPC MONITORING
EL NINO ERA STARTING SINCE 1950, THE HIGHEST (WARMEST) SUMMER
ANOMALY RECORDED WAS +1.5C (NEAR OR AT THE THRESHOLD FOR STRONG EL
NINOS) DURING THE SUMMER OF 1997.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL REALLY SEAL THE DEAL THAT THIS MAY WILL
BE UNSEASONABLY WARM IN PHILADELPHIA. IT "MAY" EVEN BE A TOP THREE
WARMEST. THIS FOLLOWS ON THE HEELS OF AN UNSEASONABLY WARM APRIL.
SINCE 1872, THE COMBINATION OF BOTH WARM (TOP THIRD OF ALL YEARS)
APRILS AND MAYS HAS ONLY OCCURRED TWENTY-THREE TIMES. BUT IT HAS
OCCURRED ELEVEN TIMES SINCE 1990 AND SIX OF THE LAST SEVEN
SPRINGS.

SO WE SCOURED THE CLIMATE RECORDS TO FIND BUDDING OR IN PROGRESS
EL NINOS THAT COINCIDED WITH BOTH WARM APRILS AND MAYS LOCALLY IN
THE CPC MONITORING ERA. WE FOUND THREE PAST SUMMERS THAT MET THE
CRITERIA. THE ONE SIGN IS THAT ALL THREE ANALOG SUMMERS WERE
WETTER THAN NORMAL, HOPEFULLY KEEPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS FROM
INTENSIFYING FURTHER.

THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE PREDICTIONS FOR THIS
UPCOMING SUMMER HAS WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER EXPECTED
IN OUR AREA. THE INTERNATIONAL MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE
SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC PREDICTING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION.

THE ANALOGS FOR PHILADELPHIA ARE:

YEAR    JUNE AVG   JULY AVG   AUGUST AVG   SUMMER AVG   SUMMER PCPN

1969      73.4        75.1      75.2         74.6        18.30
1977      68.6        77.8      76.2         74.2        15.50
1991      75.7        79.0      79.0         77.9        12.01
AVG       72.6        77.3      76.8         75.6        15.27

1981-
2010      73.3        78.1      76.6         76.0        11.28
NORMAL

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR OUR FORECAST AREA IS FOR EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>452.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIGI/KLEIN
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/IOVINO/KLEIN
MARINE...GIGI/KLEIN/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...DRAG/GAINES/GIGI/LAGUARDIA




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 260029
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
829 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
ANY CU DISSIPATES BY SUNSET AS OFFSHORE RIDGE DOMINATES. MSTLY CLR.
LOWS IN THE L-M60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES THE PREVIEW OF SUMMER THRU THE PRD. MODELS
DVLP A LEE TROF EACH DAY. CONVECTION THAT DVLPS OVR THE MTS WEAKENS
AS IT MOVES E INTO THE PIEDMONT TUE AS AIRMASS OVR MOST OF THE FA
REMAINS CAPPED. KEPT 20-30 DIURNAL POP OVR THE WRN MOST CNTYS. HIGHS
IN THE M-U80S...M70S-L80S CSTL AREAS...COOLEST AT THE BEACHES.

LATEST MODELS AMPLIFY THE SFC TROF AND ARE QUICKER TO BREAK THE CAP
WHICH ALLOWS FOR A MORE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE APPRCHG MSTR FROM
THE OHIO/TN VLLYS BOTH WED AND THURS. CONTINUED SUMMER-LIKE BUT WITH
HIGHER CHCS FOR MAINLY AFTRN/EVE SHWRS/TSTRMS WEST OF THE CHES BAY
WED AND AS FAR E AS THE COASTAL AREAS THURS. GIVEN THE INCRG PW`S
AND LL MSTR...THREATS WILL BE FOR LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS AS STEERING
CRNTS REMAIN WEAK. A TAD COOLER GIVEN MORE CLOUD COVERAGE BUT WITH
MORE HUMIDITY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE L-M80S...XCPT 75-80 AT THE
BEACHES. LOWS IN THE M-U60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
EACH DAY AND TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR TSTMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NW AREAS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN DURING THE
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NW AND
SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A
FAIRLY DRY PERIOD FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
AN INCREASE OF POPS TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. POPS WILL
BE LOWER OVER FAR SE PORTIONS.

GUIDANCE HAS 85H TEMPERATURES GETTING NO HIGHER THAN 16C. CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WILL ALSO HOLD READINGS DOWN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 85 TO 90 INLAND AND UPR
70S TO LWR 80S NEAR THE COAST. IT WILL BE MODERATELY HUMID WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S. LOWS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PROVIDE STABLE
CONDITIONS AND S/SW WINDS DURING THE 00Z TAF PERIOD.

WINDS BE SOUTHERLY MONDAY EVENING...INCREASING FROM THE S/SW BY
MIDDAY TUESDAY. THE SKY WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS BY TUESDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE. THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
PIEDMONT MAY PRODUCE SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY AT RIC/SBY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE THURSDAY. OUTSIDE TSTMS...VFR CONDS SHOULD
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS STRONG HI PRES OFFSHORE WITH SLY FLOW
ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. THIS STAGNANT WX PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THRU
MID TO LATE WEEK. WINDS WILL AVG 10-15 KT...UP TO 15-20 KT OVER THE
CSTL WTRS EACH LATE AFTN/EVENG. WINDS MAY COME CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA
OVER THE BAY BUT HAVE CAPPED SUSTAINED WINDS FOR NOW AT ~15 KT.
WAVES OVER THE BAY WILL BE 1-3 FT WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS AT 2-4
FT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS OVER THE MARINE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 260029
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
829 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
ANY CU DISSIPATES BY SUNSET AS OFFSHORE RIDGE DOMINATES. MSTLY CLR.
LOWS IN THE L-M60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES THE PREVIEW OF SUMMER THRU THE PRD. MODELS
DVLP A LEE TROF EACH DAY. CONVECTION THAT DVLPS OVR THE MTS WEAKENS
AS IT MOVES E INTO THE PIEDMONT TUE AS AIRMASS OVR MOST OF THE FA
REMAINS CAPPED. KEPT 20-30 DIURNAL POP OVR THE WRN MOST CNTYS. HIGHS
IN THE M-U80S...M70S-L80S CSTL AREAS...COOLEST AT THE BEACHES.

LATEST MODELS AMPLIFY THE SFC TROF AND ARE QUICKER TO BREAK THE CAP
WHICH ALLOWS FOR A MORE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE APPRCHG MSTR FROM
THE OHIO/TN VLLYS BOTH WED AND THURS. CONTINUED SUMMER-LIKE BUT WITH
HIGHER CHCS FOR MAINLY AFTRN/EVE SHWRS/TSTRMS WEST OF THE CHES BAY
WED AND AS FAR E AS THE COASTAL AREAS THURS. GIVEN THE INCRG PW`S
AND LL MSTR...THREATS WILL BE FOR LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS AS STEERING
CRNTS REMAIN WEAK. A TAD COOLER GIVEN MORE CLOUD COVERAGE BUT WITH
MORE HUMIDITY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE L-M80S...XCPT 75-80 AT THE
BEACHES. LOWS IN THE M-U60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
EACH DAY AND TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR TSTMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NW AREAS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN DURING THE
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NW AND
SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A
FAIRLY DRY PERIOD FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
AN INCREASE OF POPS TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. POPS WILL
BE LOWER OVER FAR SE PORTIONS.

GUIDANCE HAS 85H TEMPERATURES GETTING NO HIGHER THAN 16C. CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WILL ALSO HOLD READINGS DOWN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 85 TO 90 INLAND AND UPR
70S TO LWR 80S NEAR THE COAST. IT WILL BE MODERATELY HUMID WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S. LOWS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PROVIDE STABLE
CONDITIONS AND S/SW WINDS DURING THE 00Z TAF PERIOD.

WINDS BE SOUTHERLY MONDAY EVENING...INCREASING FROM THE S/SW BY
MIDDAY TUESDAY. THE SKY WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS BY TUESDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE. THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
PIEDMONT MAY PRODUCE SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY AT RIC/SBY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE THURSDAY. OUTSIDE TSTMS...VFR CONDS SHOULD
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS STRONG HI PRES OFFSHORE WITH SLY FLOW
ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. THIS STAGNANT WX PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THRU
MID TO LATE WEEK. WINDS WILL AVG 10-15 KT...UP TO 15-20 KT OVER THE
CSTL WTRS EACH LATE AFTN/EVENG. WINDS MAY COME CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA
OVER THE BAY BUT HAVE CAPPED SUSTAINED WINDS FOR NOW AT ~15 KT.
WAVES OVER THE BAY WILL BE 1-3 FT WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS AT 2-4
FT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS OVER THE MARINE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 260029
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
829 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
ANY CU DISSIPATES BY SUNSET AS OFFSHORE RIDGE DOMINATES. MSTLY CLR.
LOWS IN THE L-M60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES THE PREVIEW OF SUMMER THRU THE PRD. MODELS
DVLP A LEE TROF EACH DAY. CONVECTION THAT DVLPS OVR THE MTS WEAKENS
AS IT MOVES E INTO THE PIEDMONT TUE AS AIRMASS OVR MOST OF THE FA
REMAINS CAPPED. KEPT 20-30 DIURNAL POP OVR THE WRN MOST CNTYS. HIGHS
IN THE M-U80S...M70S-L80S CSTL AREAS...COOLEST AT THE BEACHES.

LATEST MODELS AMPLIFY THE SFC TROF AND ARE QUICKER TO BREAK THE CAP
WHICH ALLOWS FOR A MORE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE APPRCHG MSTR FROM
THE OHIO/TN VLLYS BOTH WED AND THURS. CONTINUED SUMMER-LIKE BUT WITH
HIGHER CHCS FOR MAINLY AFTRN/EVE SHWRS/TSTRMS WEST OF THE CHES BAY
WED AND AS FAR E AS THE COASTAL AREAS THURS. GIVEN THE INCRG PW`S
AND LL MSTR...THREATS WILL BE FOR LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS AS STEERING
CRNTS REMAIN WEAK. A TAD COOLER GIVEN MORE CLOUD COVERAGE BUT WITH
MORE HUMIDITY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE L-M80S...XCPT 75-80 AT THE
BEACHES. LOWS IN THE M-U60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
EACH DAY AND TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR TSTMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NW AREAS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN DURING THE
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NW AND
SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A
FAIRLY DRY PERIOD FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
AN INCREASE OF POPS TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. POPS WILL
BE LOWER OVER FAR SE PORTIONS.

GUIDANCE HAS 85H TEMPERATURES GETTING NO HIGHER THAN 16C. CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WILL ALSO HOLD READINGS DOWN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 85 TO 90 INLAND AND UPR
70S TO LWR 80S NEAR THE COAST. IT WILL BE MODERATELY HUMID WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S. LOWS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PROVIDE STABLE
CONDITIONS AND S/SW WINDS DURING THE 00Z TAF PERIOD.

WINDS BE SOUTHERLY MONDAY EVENING...INCREASING FROM THE S/SW BY
MIDDAY TUESDAY. THE SKY WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS BY TUESDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE. THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
PIEDMONT MAY PRODUCE SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY AT RIC/SBY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE THURSDAY. OUTSIDE TSTMS...VFR CONDS SHOULD
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS STRONG HI PRES OFFSHORE WITH SLY FLOW
ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. THIS STAGNANT WX PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THRU
MID TO LATE WEEK. WINDS WILL AVG 10-15 KT...UP TO 15-20 KT OVER THE
CSTL WTRS EACH LATE AFTN/EVENG. WINDS MAY COME CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA
OVER THE BAY BUT HAVE CAPPED SUSTAINED WINDS FOR NOW AT ~15 KT.
WAVES OVER THE BAY WILL BE 1-3 FT WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS AT 2-4
FT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS OVER THE MARINE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 260029
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
829 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
ANY CU DISSIPATES BY SUNSET AS OFFSHORE RIDGE DOMINATES. MSTLY CLR.
LOWS IN THE L-M60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES THE PREVIEW OF SUMMER THRU THE PRD. MODELS
DVLP A LEE TROF EACH DAY. CONVECTION THAT DVLPS OVR THE MTS WEAKENS
AS IT MOVES E INTO THE PIEDMONT TUE AS AIRMASS OVR MOST OF THE FA
REMAINS CAPPED. KEPT 20-30 DIURNAL POP OVR THE WRN MOST CNTYS. HIGHS
IN THE M-U80S...M70S-L80S CSTL AREAS...COOLEST AT THE BEACHES.

LATEST MODELS AMPLIFY THE SFC TROF AND ARE QUICKER TO BREAK THE CAP
WHICH ALLOWS FOR A MORE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE APPRCHG MSTR FROM
THE OHIO/TN VLLYS BOTH WED AND THURS. CONTINUED SUMMER-LIKE BUT WITH
HIGHER CHCS FOR MAINLY AFTRN/EVE SHWRS/TSTRMS WEST OF THE CHES BAY
WED AND AS FAR E AS THE COASTAL AREAS THURS. GIVEN THE INCRG PW`S
AND LL MSTR...THREATS WILL BE FOR LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS AS STEERING
CRNTS REMAIN WEAK. A TAD COOLER GIVEN MORE CLOUD COVERAGE BUT WITH
MORE HUMIDITY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE L-M80S...XCPT 75-80 AT THE
BEACHES. LOWS IN THE M-U60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
EACH DAY AND TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR TSTMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NW AREAS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN DURING THE
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NW AND
SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A
FAIRLY DRY PERIOD FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
AN INCREASE OF POPS TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. POPS WILL
BE LOWER OVER FAR SE PORTIONS.

GUIDANCE HAS 85H TEMPERATURES GETTING NO HIGHER THAN 16C. CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WILL ALSO HOLD READINGS DOWN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 85 TO 90 INLAND AND UPR
70S TO LWR 80S NEAR THE COAST. IT WILL BE MODERATELY HUMID WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S. LOWS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PROVIDE STABLE
CONDITIONS AND S/SW WINDS DURING THE 00Z TAF PERIOD.

WINDS BE SOUTHERLY MONDAY EVENING...INCREASING FROM THE S/SW BY
MIDDAY TUESDAY. THE SKY WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS BY TUESDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE. THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
PIEDMONT MAY PRODUCE SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY AT RIC/SBY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE THURSDAY. OUTSIDE TSTMS...VFR CONDS SHOULD
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS STRONG HI PRES OFFSHORE WITH SLY FLOW
ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. THIS STAGNANT WX PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THRU
MID TO LATE WEEK. WINDS WILL AVG 10-15 KT...UP TO 15-20 KT OVER THE
CSTL WTRS EACH LATE AFTN/EVENG. WINDS MAY COME CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA
OVER THE BAY BUT HAVE CAPPED SUSTAINED WINDS FOR NOW AT ~15 KT.
WAVES OVER THE BAY WILL BE 1-3 FT WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS AT 2-4
FT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS OVER THE MARINE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 260029
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
829 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
ANY CU DISSIPATES BY SUNSET AS OFFSHORE RIDGE DOMINATES. MSTLY CLR.
LOWS IN THE L-M60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES THE PREVIEW OF SUMMER THRU THE PRD. MODELS
DVLP A LEE TROF EACH DAY. CONVECTION THAT DVLPS OVR THE MTS WEAKENS
AS IT MOVES E INTO THE PIEDMONT TUE AS AIRMASS OVR MOST OF THE FA
REMAINS CAPPED. KEPT 20-30 DIURNAL POP OVR THE WRN MOST CNTYS. HIGHS
IN THE M-U80S...M70S-L80S CSTL AREAS...COOLEST AT THE BEACHES.

LATEST MODELS AMPLIFY THE SFC TROF AND ARE QUICKER TO BREAK THE CAP
WHICH ALLOWS FOR A MORE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE APPRCHG MSTR FROM
THE OHIO/TN VLLYS BOTH WED AND THURS. CONTINUED SUMMER-LIKE BUT WITH
HIGHER CHCS FOR MAINLY AFTRN/EVE SHWRS/TSTRMS WEST OF THE CHES BAY
WED AND AS FAR E AS THE COASTAL AREAS THURS. GIVEN THE INCRG PW`S
AND LL MSTR...THREATS WILL BE FOR LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS AS STEERING
CRNTS REMAIN WEAK. A TAD COOLER GIVEN MORE CLOUD COVERAGE BUT WITH
MORE HUMIDITY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE L-M80S...XCPT 75-80 AT THE
BEACHES. LOWS IN THE M-U60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
EACH DAY AND TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR TSTMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NW AREAS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN DURING THE
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NW AND
SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A
FAIRLY DRY PERIOD FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
AN INCREASE OF POPS TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. POPS WILL
BE LOWER OVER FAR SE PORTIONS.

GUIDANCE HAS 85H TEMPERATURES GETTING NO HIGHER THAN 16C. CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WILL ALSO HOLD READINGS DOWN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 85 TO 90 INLAND AND UPR
70S TO LWR 80S NEAR THE COAST. IT WILL BE MODERATELY HUMID WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S. LOWS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PROVIDE STABLE
CONDITIONS AND S/SW WINDS DURING THE 00Z TAF PERIOD.

WINDS BE SOUTHERLY MONDAY EVENING...INCREASING FROM THE S/SW BY
MIDDAY TUESDAY. THE SKY WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS BY TUESDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE. THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
PIEDMONT MAY PRODUCE SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY AT RIC/SBY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE THURSDAY. OUTSIDE TSTMS...VFR CONDS SHOULD
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS STRONG HI PRES OFFSHORE WITH SLY FLOW
ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. THIS STAGNANT WX PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THRU
MID TO LATE WEEK. WINDS WILL AVG 10-15 KT...UP TO 15-20 KT OVER THE
CSTL WTRS EACH LATE AFTN/EVENG. WINDS MAY COME CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA
OVER THE BAY BUT HAVE CAPPED SUSTAINED WINDS FOR NOW AT ~15 KT.
WAVES OVER THE BAY WILL BE 1-3 FT WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS AT 2-4
FT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS OVER THE MARINE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...MAS



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 260029
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
829 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
ANY CU DISSIPATES BY SUNSET AS OFFSHORE RIDGE DOMINATES. MSTLY CLR.
LOWS IN THE L-M60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES THE PREVIEW OF SUMMER THRU THE PRD. MODELS
DVLP A LEE TROF EACH DAY. CONVECTION THAT DVLPS OVR THE MTS WEAKENS
AS IT MOVES E INTO THE PIEDMONT TUE AS AIRMASS OVR MOST OF THE FA
REMAINS CAPPED. KEPT 20-30 DIURNAL POP OVR THE WRN MOST CNTYS. HIGHS
IN THE M-U80S...M70S-L80S CSTL AREAS...COOLEST AT THE BEACHES.

LATEST MODELS AMPLIFY THE SFC TROF AND ARE QUICKER TO BREAK THE CAP
WHICH ALLOWS FOR A MORE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE APPRCHG MSTR FROM
THE OHIO/TN VLLYS BOTH WED AND THURS. CONTINUED SUMMER-LIKE BUT WITH
HIGHER CHCS FOR MAINLY AFTRN/EVE SHWRS/TSTRMS WEST OF THE CHES BAY
WED AND AS FAR E AS THE COASTAL AREAS THURS. GIVEN THE INCRG PW`S
AND LL MSTR...THREATS WILL BE FOR LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS AS STEERING
CRNTS REMAIN WEAK. A TAD COOLER GIVEN MORE CLOUD COVERAGE BUT WITH
MORE HUMIDITY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE L-M80S...XCPT 75-80 AT THE
BEACHES. LOWS IN THE M-U60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
EACH DAY AND TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR TSTMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NW AREAS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN DURING THE
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NW AND
SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A
FAIRLY DRY PERIOD FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
AN INCREASE OF POPS TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. POPS WILL
BE LOWER OVER FAR SE PORTIONS.

GUIDANCE HAS 85H TEMPERATURES GETTING NO HIGHER THAN 16C. CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WILL ALSO HOLD READINGS DOWN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 85 TO 90 INLAND AND UPR
70S TO LWR 80S NEAR THE COAST. IT WILL BE MODERATELY HUMID WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S. LOWS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PROVIDE STABLE
CONDITIONS AND S/SW WINDS DURING THE 00Z TAF PERIOD.

WINDS BE SOUTHERLY MONDAY EVENING...INCREASING FROM THE S/SW BY
MIDDAY TUESDAY. THE SKY WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS BY TUESDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE. THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
PIEDMONT MAY PRODUCE SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY AT RIC/SBY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE THURSDAY. OUTSIDE TSTMS...VFR CONDS SHOULD
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS STRONG HI PRES OFFSHORE WITH SLY FLOW
ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. THIS STAGNANT WX PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THRU
MID TO LATE WEEK. WINDS WILL AVG 10-15 KT...UP TO 15-20 KT OVER THE
CSTL WTRS EACH LATE AFTN/EVENG. WINDS MAY COME CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA
OVER THE BAY BUT HAVE CAPPED SUSTAINED WINDS FOR NOW AT ~15 KT.
WAVES OVER THE BAY WILL BE 1-3 FT WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS AT 2-4
FT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS OVER THE MARINE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 252309
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
709 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY HAVE RETURNED TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION...BUT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MOST OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPDATE FOR THE EVENING FEATURES FAIRLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS AS A WEAK VORT RIBBON MOVING ACROSS EASTERN OHIO WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION HAS YIELDED NO THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. LIKEWISE...CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS SEEM TO HAVE SLIPPED MOSTLY NORTH OF THE AREA AT THE
MOMENT...AS SUCH POPS HAVE BEEN CUT BACK FOR THE EVENING HOURS AS
THIS FEATURE DOES SEEM TO WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

THE FORECAST THINKING OF ANOTHER INCREASE IN POPS TOWARD MORNING
STILL SEEMS ON TARGET PER THE 18Z NAM GUIDANCE AS ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE RIDES NORTHEASTWARD. POPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR THIS.
HOWEVER...IN THE INTERIM BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...SKIES WERE REDUCED
FOR MOST AREAS TO BE GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE BULK OF
THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE FUNNEL OF DEEP MOISTURE
OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION...AT LEAST UNTIL THE ADVANCING MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSION SHUNTS THE PLUME EASTWARD BY THURSDAY AS
PER THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS.

CHANCE...TO LIKELY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL THUS BE MAINTAINED
FOR THE PERIOD. THE BEST OVERALL POPS AT MOMENT ARE STILL PROGGED
FOR WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH TODAYS MODEL RUNS ARE FASTER IN PUSHING
THE PARENT MID/UPR LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SUSTAINED MOISTURE TAP
EASTWARD...SO THOSE LIKELY NUMBERS WERE TRENDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
AS WELL.

THE SHORT TERM SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS TO BE COMPROMISED BY
WARM MID LEVELS AND A MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILE...BUT WARM
RAIN PROCESSES AND TRAINING MAY SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
UNTIL MOISTURE AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH WANES LATER ON WEDNESDAY.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE SEASONABLY WARM TEMP PROGNOSIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...AND PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEK AS MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK SPLIT FLOW REGIME
CONVERGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO REGION. THE SURFACE
FRONT IS PROJECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD UNTIL REDEVELOPING NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO GREAT PLAINS TROUGHING EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

GIVEN MODEL MAGNITUDE...POSITIONING...AND TIMING DISPUTES...PERSISTENCE
WILL RULE THE LONG TERM FORECAST STRATEGY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENLY VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE ERODING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION SUPPRESSES CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL INCREASE LOCAL
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY SPAWN A
STRATUS/STRATOCU LAYER EARLY ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE
MVFR RESTRICTIONS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN IFR CEILINGS IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS. TAFS THUS INCLUDE A VICINITY SHOWER MENTION AND A LATE
PERIOD...LOW END VFR CLOUD BASE FORECAST AS A LOW CONFIDENCE
HEDGE.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 252309
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
709 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY HAVE RETURNED TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION...BUT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MOST OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPDATE FOR THE EVENING FEATURES FAIRLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS AS A WEAK VORT RIBBON MOVING ACROSS EASTERN OHIO WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION HAS YIELDED NO THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. LIKEWISE...CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS SEEM TO HAVE SLIPPED MOSTLY NORTH OF THE AREA AT THE
MOMENT...AS SUCH POPS HAVE BEEN CUT BACK FOR THE EVENING HOURS AS
THIS FEATURE DOES SEEM TO WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

THE FORECAST THINKING OF ANOTHER INCREASE IN POPS TOWARD MORNING
STILL SEEMS ON TARGET PER THE 18Z NAM GUIDANCE AS ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE RIDES NORTHEASTWARD. POPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR THIS.
HOWEVER...IN THE INTERIM BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...SKIES WERE REDUCED
FOR MOST AREAS TO BE GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE BULK OF
THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE FUNNEL OF DEEP MOISTURE
OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION...AT LEAST UNTIL THE ADVANCING MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSION SHUNTS THE PLUME EASTWARD BY THURSDAY AS
PER THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS.

CHANCE...TO LIKELY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL THUS BE MAINTAINED
FOR THE PERIOD. THE BEST OVERALL POPS AT MOMENT ARE STILL PROGGED
FOR WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH TODAYS MODEL RUNS ARE FASTER IN PUSHING
THE PARENT MID/UPR LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SUSTAINED MOISTURE TAP
EASTWARD...SO THOSE LIKELY NUMBERS WERE TRENDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
AS WELL.

THE SHORT TERM SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS TO BE COMPROMISED BY
WARM MID LEVELS AND A MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILE...BUT WARM
RAIN PROCESSES AND TRAINING MAY SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
UNTIL MOISTURE AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH WANES LATER ON WEDNESDAY.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE SEASONABLY WARM TEMP PROGNOSIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...AND PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEK AS MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK SPLIT FLOW REGIME
CONVERGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO REGION. THE SURFACE
FRONT IS PROJECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD UNTIL REDEVELOPING NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO GREAT PLAINS TROUGHING EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

GIVEN MODEL MAGNITUDE...POSITIONING...AND TIMING DISPUTES...PERSISTENCE
WILL RULE THE LONG TERM FORECAST STRATEGY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENLY VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE ERODING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION SUPPRESSES CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL INCREASE LOCAL
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY SPAWN A
STRATUS/STRATOCU LAYER EARLY ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE
MVFR RESTRICTIONS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN IFR CEILINGS IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS. TAFS THUS INCLUDE A VICINITY SHOWER MENTION AND A LATE
PERIOD...LOW END VFR CLOUD BASE FORECAST AS A LOW CONFIDENCE
HEDGE.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 252309
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
709 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY HAVE RETURNED TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION...BUT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MOST OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPDATE FOR THE EVENING FEATURES FAIRLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS AS A WEAK VORT RIBBON MOVING ACROSS EASTERN OHIO WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION HAS YIELDED NO THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. LIKEWISE...CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS SEEM TO HAVE SLIPPED MOSTLY NORTH OF THE AREA AT THE
MOMENT...AS SUCH POPS HAVE BEEN CUT BACK FOR THE EVENING HOURS AS
THIS FEATURE DOES SEEM TO WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

THE FORECAST THINKING OF ANOTHER INCREASE IN POPS TOWARD MORNING
STILL SEEMS ON TARGET PER THE 18Z NAM GUIDANCE AS ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE RIDES NORTHEASTWARD. POPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR THIS.
HOWEVER...IN THE INTERIM BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...SKIES WERE REDUCED
FOR MOST AREAS TO BE GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE BULK OF
THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE FUNNEL OF DEEP MOISTURE
OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION...AT LEAST UNTIL THE ADVANCING MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSION SHUNTS THE PLUME EASTWARD BY THURSDAY AS
PER THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS.

CHANCE...TO LIKELY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL THUS BE MAINTAINED
FOR THE PERIOD. THE BEST OVERALL POPS AT MOMENT ARE STILL PROGGED
FOR WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH TODAYS MODEL RUNS ARE FASTER IN PUSHING
THE PARENT MID/UPR LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SUSTAINED MOISTURE TAP
EASTWARD...SO THOSE LIKELY NUMBERS WERE TRENDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
AS WELL.

THE SHORT TERM SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS TO BE COMPROMISED BY
WARM MID LEVELS AND A MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILE...BUT WARM
RAIN PROCESSES AND TRAINING MAY SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
UNTIL MOISTURE AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH WANES LATER ON WEDNESDAY.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE SEASONABLY WARM TEMP PROGNOSIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...AND PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEK AS MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK SPLIT FLOW REGIME
CONVERGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO REGION. THE SURFACE
FRONT IS PROJECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD UNTIL REDEVELOPING NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO GREAT PLAINS TROUGHING EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

GIVEN MODEL MAGNITUDE...POSITIONING...AND TIMING DISPUTES...PERSISTENCE
WILL RULE THE LONG TERM FORECAST STRATEGY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENLY VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE ERODING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION SUPPRESSES CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL INCREASE LOCAL
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY SPAWN A
STRATUS/STRATOCU LAYER EARLY ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE
MVFR RESTRICTIONS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN IFR CEILINGS IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS. TAFS THUS INCLUDE A VICINITY SHOWER MENTION AND A LATE
PERIOD...LOW END VFR CLOUD BASE FORECAST AS A LOW CONFIDENCE
HEDGE.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 252309
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
709 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY HAVE RETURNED TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION...BUT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MOST OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPDATE FOR THE EVENING FEATURES FAIRLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS AS A WEAK VORT RIBBON MOVING ACROSS EASTERN OHIO WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION HAS YIELDED NO THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. LIKEWISE...CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS SEEM TO HAVE SLIPPED MOSTLY NORTH OF THE AREA AT THE
MOMENT...AS SUCH POPS HAVE BEEN CUT BACK FOR THE EVENING HOURS AS
THIS FEATURE DOES SEEM TO WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

THE FORECAST THINKING OF ANOTHER INCREASE IN POPS TOWARD MORNING
STILL SEEMS ON TARGET PER THE 18Z NAM GUIDANCE AS ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE RIDES NORTHEASTWARD. POPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR THIS.
HOWEVER...IN THE INTERIM BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...SKIES WERE REDUCED
FOR MOST AREAS TO BE GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE BULK OF
THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE FUNNEL OF DEEP MOISTURE
OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION...AT LEAST UNTIL THE ADVANCING MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSION SHUNTS THE PLUME EASTWARD BY THURSDAY AS
PER THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS.

CHANCE...TO LIKELY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL THUS BE MAINTAINED
FOR THE PERIOD. THE BEST OVERALL POPS AT MOMENT ARE STILL PROGGED
FOR WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH TODAYS MODEL RUNS ARE FASTER IN PUSHING
THE PARENT MID/UPR LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SUSTAINED MOISTURE TAP
EASTWARD...SO THOSE LIKELY NUMBERS WERE TRENDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
AS WELL.

THE SHORT TERM SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS TO BE COMPROMISED BY
WARM MID LEVELS AND A MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILE...BUT WARM
RAIN PROCESSES AND TRAINING MAY SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
UNTIL MOISTURE AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH WANES LATER ON WEDNESDAY.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE SEASONABLY WARM TEMP PROGNOSIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...AND PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEK AS MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK SPLIT FLOW REGIME
CONVERGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO REGION. THE SURFACE
FRONT IS PROJECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD UNTIL REDEVELOPING NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO GREAT PLAINS TROUGHING EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

GIVEN MODEL MAGNITUDE...POSITIONING...AND TIMING DISPUTES...PERSISTENCE
WILL RULE THE LONG TERM FORECAST STRATEGY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENLY VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE ERODING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION SUPPRESSES CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL INCREASE LOCAL
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY SPAWN A
STRATUS/STRATOCU LAYER EARLY ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE
MVFR RESTRICTIONS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN IFR CEILINGS IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS. TAFS THUS INCLUDE A VICINITY SHOWER MENTION AND A LATE
PERIOD...LOW END VFR CLOUD BASE FORECAST AS A LOW CONFIDENCE
HEDGE.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 252309
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
709 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY HAVE RETURNED TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION...BUT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MOST OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPDATE FOR THE EVENING FEATURES FAIRLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS AS A WEAK VORT RIBBON MOVING ACROSS EASTERN OHIO WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION HAS YIELDED NO THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. LIKEWISE...CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS SEEM TO HAVE SLIPPED MOSTLY NORTH OF THE AREA AT THE
MOMENT...AS SUCH POPS HAVE BEEN CUT BACK FOR THE EVENING HOURS AS
THIS FEATURE DOES SEEM TO WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

THE FORECAST THINKING OF ANOTHER INCREASE IN POPS TOWARD MORNING
STILL SEEMS ON TARGET PER THE 18Z NAM GUIDANCE AS ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE RIDES NORTHEASTWARD. POPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR THIS.
HOWEVER...IN THE INTERIM BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...SKIES WERE REDUCED
FOR MOST AREAS TO BE GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE BULK OF
THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE FUNNEL OF DEEP MOISTURE
OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION...AT LEAST UNTIL THE ADVANCING MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSION SHUNTS THE PLUME EASTWARD BY THURSDAY AS
PER THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS.

CHANCE...TO LIKELY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL THUS BE MAINTAINED
FOR THE PERIOD. THE BEST OVERALL POPS AT MOMENT ARE STILL PROGGED
FOR WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH TODAYS MODEL RUNS ARE FASTER IN PUSHING
THE PARENT MID/UPR LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SUSTAINED MOISTURE TAP
EASTWARD...SO THOSE LIKELY NUMBERS WERE TRENDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
AS WELL.

THE SHORT TERM SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS TO BE COMPROMISED BY
WARM MID LEVELS AND A MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILE...BUT WARM
RAIN PROCESSES AND TRAINING MAY SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
UNTIL MOISTURE AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH WANES LATER ON WEDNESDAY.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE SEASONABLY WARM TEMP PROGNOSIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...AND PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEK AS MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK SPLIT FLOW REGIME
CONVERGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO REGION. THE SURFACE
FRONT IS PROJECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD UNTIL REDEVELOPING NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO GREAT PLAINS TROUGHING EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

GIVEN MODEL MAGNITUDE...POSITIONING...AND TIMING DISPUTES...PERSISTENCE
WILL RULE THE LONG TERM FORECAST STRATEGY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENLY VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE ERODING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION SUPPRESSES CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL INCREASE LOCAL
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY SPAWN A
STRATUS/STRATOCU LAYER EARLY ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE
MVFR RESTRICTIONS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN IFR CEILINGS IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS. TAFS THUS INCLUDE A VICINITY SHOWER MENTION AND A LATE
PERIOD...LOW END VFR CLOUD BASE FORECAST AS A LOW CONFIDENCE
HEDGE.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 252309
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
709 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY HAVE RETURNED TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION...BUT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MOST OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPDATE FOR THE EVENING FEATURES FAIRLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS AS A WEAK VORT RIBBON MOVING ACROSS EASTERN OHIO WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION HAS YIELDED NO THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. LIKEWISE...CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS SEEM TO HAVE SLIPPED MOSTLY NORTH OF THE AREA AT THE
MOMENT...AS SUCH POPS HAVE BEEN CUT BACK FOR THE EVENING HOURS AS
THIS FEATURE DOES SEEM TO WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

THE FORECAST THINKING OF ANOTHER INCREASE IN POPS TOWARD MORNING
STILL SEEMS ON TARGET PER THE 18Z NAM GUIDANCE AS ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE RIDES NORTHEASTWARD. POPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR THIS.
HOWEVER...IN THE INTERIM BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...SKIES WERE REDUCED
FOR MOST AREAS TO BE GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE BULK OF
THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE FUNNEL OF DEEP MOISTURE
OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION...AT LEAST UNTIL THE ADVANCING MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSION SHUNTS THE PLUME EASTWARD BY THURSDAY AS
PER THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS.

CHANCE...TO LIKELY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL THUS BE MAINTAINED
FOR THE PERIOD. THE BEST OVERALL POPS AT MOMENT ARE STILL PROGGED
FOR WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH TODAYS MODEL RUNS ARE FASTER IN PUSHING
THE PARENT MID/UPR LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SUSTAINED MOISTURE TAP
EASTWARD...SO THOSE LIKELY NUMBERS WERE TRENDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
AS WELL.

THE SHORT TERM SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS TO BE COMPROMISED BY
WARM MID LEVELS AND A MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILE...BUT WARM
RAIN PROCESSES AND TRAINING MAY SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
UNTIL MOISTURE AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH WANES LATER ON WEDNESDAY.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE SEASONABLY WARM TEMP PROGNOSIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...AND PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEK AS MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK SPLIT FLOW REGIME
CONVERGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO REGION. THE SURFACE
FRONT IS PROJECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD UNTIL REDEVELOPING NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO GREAT PLAINS TROUGHING EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

GIVEN MODEL MAGNITUDE...POSITIONING...AND TIMING DISPUTES...PERSISTENCE
WILL RULE THE LONG TERM FORECAST STRATEGY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENLY VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE ERODING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION SUPPRESSES CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL INCREASE LOCAL
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY SPAWN A
STRATUS/STRATOCU LAYER EARLY ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE
MVFR RESTRICTIONS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN IFR CEILINGS IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS. TAFS THUS INCLUDE A VICINITY SHOWER MENTION AND A LATE
PERIOD...LOW END VFR CLOUD BASE FORECAST AS A LOW CONFIDENCE
HEDGE.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 252309
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
709 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY HAVE RETURNED TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION...BUT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MOST OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPDATE FOR THE EVENING FEATURES FAIRLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS AS A WEAK VORT RIBBON MOVING ACROSS EASTERN OHIO WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION HAS YIELDED NO THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. LIKEWISE...CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS SEEM TO HAVE SLIPPED MOSTLY NORTH OF THE AREA AT THE
MOMENT...AS SUCH POPS HAVE BEEN CUT BACK FOR THE EVENING HOURS AS
THIS FEATURE DOES SEEM TO WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

THE FORECAST THINKING OF ANOTHER INCREASE IN POPS TOWARD MORNING
STILL SEEMS ON TARGET PER THE 18Z NAM GUIDANCE AS ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE RIDES NORTHEASTWARD. POPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR THIS.
HOWEVER...IN THE INTERIM BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...SKIES WERE REDUCED
FOR MOST AREAS TO BE GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE BULK OF
THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE FUNNEL OF DEEP MOISTURE
OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION...AT LEAST UNTIL THE ADVANCING MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSION SHUNTS THE PLUME EASTWARD BY THURSDAY AS
PER THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS.

CHANCE...TO LIKELY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL THUS BE MAINTAINED
FOR THE PERIOD. THE BEST OVERALL POPS AT MOMENT ARE STILL PROGGED
FOR WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH TODAYS MODEL RUNS ARE FASTER IN PUSHING
THE PARENT MID/UPR LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SUSTAINED MOISTURE TAP
EASTWARD...SO THOSE LIKELY NUMBERS WERE TRENDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
AS WELL.

THE SHORT TERM SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS TO BE COMPROMISED BY
WARM MID LEVELS AND A MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILE...BUT WARM
RAIN PROCESSES AND TRAINING MAY SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
UNTIL MOISTURE AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH WANES LATER ON WEDNESDAY.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE SEASONABLY WARM TEMP PROGNOSIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...AND PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEK AS MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK SPLIT FLOW REGIME
CONVERGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO REGION. THE SURFACE
FRONT IS PROJECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD UNTIL REDEVELOPING NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO GREAT PLAINS TROUGHING EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

GIVEN MODEL MAGNITUDE...POSITIONING...AND TIMING DISPUTES...PERSISTENCE
WILL RULE THE LONG TERM FORECAST STRATEGY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENLY VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE ERODING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION SUPPRESSES CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL INCREASE LOCAL
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY SPAWN A
STRATUS/STRATOCU LAYER EARLY ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE
MVFR RESTRICTIONS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN IFR CEILINGS IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS. TAFS THUS INCLUDE A VICINITY SHOWER MENTION AND A LATE
PERIOD...LOW END VFR CLOUD BASE FORECAST AS A LOW CONFIDENCE
HEDGE.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 252309
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
709 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY HAVE RETURNED TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION...BUT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MOST OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPDATE FOR THE EVENING FEATURES FAIRLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS AS A WEAK VORT RIBBON MOVING ACROSS EASTERN OHIO WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION HAS YIELDED NO THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. LIKEWISE...CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS SEEM TO HAVE SLIPPED MOSTLY NORTH OF THE AREA AT THE
MOMENT...AS SUCH POPS HAVE BEEN CUT BACK FOR THE EVENING HOURS AS
THIS FEATURE DOES SEEM TO WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

THE FORECAST THINKING OF ANOTHER INCREASE IN POPS TOWARD MORNING
STILL SEEMS ON TARGET PER THE 18Z NAM GUIDANCE AS ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE RIDES NORTHEASTWARD. POPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR THIS.
HOWEVER...IN THE INTERIM BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...SKIES WERE REDUCED
FOR MOST AREAS TO BE GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE BULK OF
THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE FUNNEL OF DEEP MOISTURE
OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION...AT LEAST UNTIL THE ADVANCING MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSION SHUNTS THE PLUME EASTWARD BY THURSDAY AS
PER THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS.

CHANCE...TO LIKELY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL THUS BE MAINTAINED
FOR THE PERIOD. THE BEST OVERALL POPS AT MOMENT ARE STILL PROGGED
FOR WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH TODAYS MODEL RUNS ARE FASTER IN PUSHING
THE PARENT MID/UPR LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SUSTAINED MOISTURE TAP
EASTWARD...SO THOSE LIKELY NUMBERS WERE TRENDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
AS WELL.

THE SHORT TERM SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS TO BE COMPROMISED BY
WARM MID LEVELS AND A MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILE...BUT WARM
RAIN PROCESSES AND TRAINING MAY SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
UNTIL MOISTURE AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH WANES LATER ON WEDNESDAY.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE SEASONABLY WARM TEMP PROGNOSIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...AND PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEK AS MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK SPLIT FLOW REGIME
CONVERGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO REGION. THE SURFACE
FRONT IS PROJECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD UNTIL REDEVELOPING NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO GREAT PLAINS TROUGHING EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

GIVEN MODEL MAGNITUDE...POSITIONING...AND TIMING DISPUTES...PERSISTENCE
WILL RULE THE LONG TERM FORECAST STRATEGY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENLY VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE ERODING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION SUPPRESSES CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL INCREASE LOCAL
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY SPAWN A
STRATUS/STRATOCU LAYER EARLY ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE
MVFR RESTRICTIONS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN IFR CEILINGS IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS. TAFS THUS INCLUDE A VICINITY SHOWER MENTION AND A LATE
PERIOD...LOW END VFR CLOUD BASE FORECAST AS A LOW CONFIDENCE
HEDGE.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 252207
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
607 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY HAVE RETURNED TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION...BUT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE COMING
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPDATE FOR THE EVENING FEATURES FAIRLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS AS A WEAK VORT RIBBON MOVING ACROSS EASTERN OHIO WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION HAS YIELDED NO THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. LIKEWISE...CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS SEEM TO HAVE SLIPPED MOSTLY NORTH OF THE AREA AT THE
MOMENT...AS SUCH POPS HAVE BEEN CUT BACK FOR THE EVENING HOURS AS
THIS FEATURE DOES SEEM TO WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

THE FORECAST THINKING OF ANOTHER INCREASE IN POPS TOWARD MORNING
STILL SEEMS ON TARGET PER THE 18Z NAM GUIDANCE AS ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE RIDES NORTHEASTWARD. POPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR THIS.
HOWEVER...IN THE INTERIM BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...SKIES WERE REDUCED
FOR MOST AREAS TO BE GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE BULK OF
THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE FUNNEL OF DEEP MOISTURE
OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION...AT LEAST UNTIL THE ADVANCING MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSION SHUNTS THE PLUME EASTWARD BY THURSDAY AS
PER THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS.

CHANCE...TO LIKELY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL THUS BE MAINTAINED
FOR THE PERIOD. THE BEST OVERALL POPS AT MOMENT ARE STILL PROGGED
FOR WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH TODAYS MODEL RUNS ARE FASTER IN PUSHING
THE PARENT MID/UPR LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SUSTAINED MOISTURE TAP
EASTWARD...SO THOSE LIKELY NUMBERS WERE TRENDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
AS WELL.

THE SHORT TERM SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS TO BE COMPROMISED BY
WARM MID LEVELS AND A MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILE...BUT WARM
RAIN PROCESSES AND TRAINING MAY SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
UNTIL MOISTURE AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH WANES LATER ON WEDNESDAY.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE SEASONABLY WARM TEMP PROGNOSIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...AND PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEK AS MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK SPLIT FLOW REGIME
CONVERGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO REGION. THE SURFACE
FRONT IS PROJECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD UNTIL REDEVELOPING NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO GREAT PLAINS TROUGHING EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

GIVEN MODEL MAGNITUDE...POSITIONING...AND TIMING DISPUTES...PERSISTENCE
WILL RULE THE LONG TERM FORECAST STRATEGY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENLY VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE ERODING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE REGION SUPPRESSES CONVECTION. HOWEVER...ISOLATED...TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL INCREASE LOCAL RESTRICTION POTENTIAL AND
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY SPAWN A STRATUS/STRATOCU LAYER EARLY ON
TUESDAY. TAFS THUS INCLUDE A VICINITY SHOWER MENTION AND A LATE
PERIOD...LOW END VFR CLOUD BASE FORECAST AS A LOW CONFIDENCE
HEDGE.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 252207
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
607 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY HAVE RETURNED TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION...BUT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE COMING
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPDATE FOR THE EVENING FEATURES FAIRLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS AS A WEAK VORT RIBBON MOVING ACROSS EASTERN OHIO WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION HAS YIELDED NO THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. LIKEWISE...CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS SEEM TO HAVE SLIPPED MOSTLY NORTH OF THE AREA AT THE
MOMENT...AS SUCH POPS HAVE BEEN CUT BACK FOR THE EVENING HOURS AS
THIS FEATURE DOES SEEM TO WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

THE FORECAST THINKING OF ANOTHER INCREASE IN POPS TOWARD MORNING
STILL SEEMS ON TARGET PER THE 18Z NAM GUIDANCE AS ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE RIDES NORTHEASTWARD. POPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR THIS.
HOWEVER...IN THE INTERIM BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...SKIES WERE REDUCED
FOR MOST AREAS TO BE GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE BULK OF
THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE FUNNEL OF DEEP MOISTURE
OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION...AT LEAST UNTIL THE ADVANCING MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSION SHUNTS THE PLUME EASTWARD BY THURSDAY AS
PER THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS.

CHANCE...TO LIKELY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL THUS BE MAINTAINED
FOR THE PERIOD. THE BEST OVERALL POPS AT MOMENT ARE STILL PROGGED
FOR WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH TODAYS MODEL RUNS ARE FASTER IN PUSHING
THE PARENT MID/UPR LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SUSTAINED MOISTURE TAP
EASTWARD...SO THOSE LIKELY NUMBERS WERE TRENDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
AS WELL.

THE SHORT TERM SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS TO BE COMPROMISED BY
WARM MID LEVELS AND A MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILE...BUT WARM
RAIN PROCESSES AND TRAINING MAY SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
UNTIL MOISTURE AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH WANES LATER ON WEDNESDAY.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE SEASONABLY WARM TEMP PROGNOSIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...AND PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEK AS MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK SPLIT FLOW REGIME
CONVERGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO REGION. THE SURFACE
FRONT IS PROJECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD UNTIL REDEVELOPING NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO GREAT PLAINS TROUGHING EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

GIVEN MODEL MAGNITUDE...POSITIONING...AND TIMING DISPUTES...PERSISTENCE
WILL RULE THE LONG TERM FORECAST STRATEGY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENLY VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE ERODING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE REGION SUPPRESSES CONVECTION. HOWEVER...ISOLATED...TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL INCREASE LOCAL RESTRICTION POTENTIAL AND
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY SPAWN A STRATUS/STRATOCU LAYER EARLY ON
TUESDAY. TAFS THUS INCLUDE A VICINITY SHOWER MENTION AND A LATE
PERIOD...LOW END VFR CLOUD BASE FORECAST AS A LOW CONFIDENCE
HEDGE.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPHI 251937
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
337 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT TRIES TO
MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND STALL IN OUR VICINITY
ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRES TO THE E WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE THRU
TONIGHT. AS IT DOES, AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL MOVE FROM THE UPR
MS VLY INTO SERN CANADA, BRINGING ITS ASSOCD WMFNT WITH IT
TONIGHT. THIS WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR, COUPLED WITH
THE S TO SWLY FLOW FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH.

EXPECT DRY CONDS AND MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.  MOISTURE WILL
SLOWLY BEGIN TO INCREASE, THOUGH TONIGHT SHOULD STILL BE RELATIVELY
COMFORTABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ON TUE, THE WK CDFNT ASSOCD WITH THE LOW IN SERN
CANADA WILL MOVE MAINLY N OF THE AREA DURG THE AFTN HOURS.  THIS
FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHWRS/TSTMS, MAINLY OVER THE NWRN AREAS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN.  THE GFS IS A BIT MORE BULLISH ON THE PRECIP THAN THE
ECMWF, NAM/WRF AND CMC.  SO WHILE ITS PSBL FOR SOME PRECIP FURTHER S
AND E, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE CHANGES ATTM.

WITH TEMPS FCST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPR 80S DEW POINTS STILL LOOK TO
BE IN THE LOWER 60S, SO IT LOOKS TO BE HOT BUT COMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND WRF-NMMB/NAM INITIALIZATION LOOKED PRETTY GOOD WITH
NO CLEAR CUT WINNER. HOWEVER, THE DP/DT ON THE GFS RUN SHOWED A
SLOWER EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN WHICH WE TOOK INTO CONSIDERATION.
WE BASICALLY ARE GOING TO END MAY WITH TYPICAL JULY WEATHER,
WARMER AND MORE HUMID WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WHILE
THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES (NAM/EC PREFER WED OVER THU, GFS PREFERS
SAT OVER SUN) AS TO THE MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DAYS, WE ARE
GOING TO TAKE A COMBINATION OF CONSENSUS AND BIAS ADJUSTING TO
KEY ON THU AND SUN AS THE MOST CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAYS IN THE
LONG TERM AND SATURDAY THE RELATIVE LULL. REGARDLESS AFTER
NOT BEING ABLE TO BUY A THUNDERSTORM, ITS TOUGH TO FIND A
DAY TO NOT INCLUDE A THUNDERSTORM.

THERE IS ACTIVE CONVECTION IN THE GULF COASTS STATES AND THE MEAN
FLOW IS GOING TO TAKE IT TOWARD THE WESTERN PART OF OUR CWA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. WE CARRY SOME LOW POPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL
BE A MORE HUMID NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS NOT AS LOW.

ON WEDNESDAY, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COME CLOSER TO OUR CWA.
COUPLED WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS AND THE RELATIVE CORE OF WARMEST
AIR ALOFT (925MB ANALYSIS HAS IT OVER PA THIS MORNING, BUT MORE
SOUTH GROWN HEAT WILL LIKELY KEEP A STATUS QUO IN 850/925MB
TEMPS THRU WED) PASSING OVER OUR CWA WOULD BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
TSTMS TO DEVELOP WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS WITHIN REACH. THE LATEST
ECMWF TAKES A SLIGHTLY FASTER TIMING THAN MOST OTHER MODELS.
THIS BUCKS THE TREND OF AN OVERALL SLOWER EVOLUTION THAT
THE MODELS HAVE THRU TODAY.

LOOKING AT MODELING SIMILARITIES VS DIFFERENCES, ALL OF THEM HAVE
THE MOST CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTION THERMODYNAMIC FEATURES IN THE NWRN
PART OF OUR CWA. THE GFS AND WRF-NMM AGREE ABOUT MID LEVEL DRY
AIR MAKING STORMS PULSIER. BUT FROM THERE KINEMATICALLY THERE ARE
TOO MANY DIFFERENCES WED VS THU TO RESOLVE AT THIS TIME AS TO
MORE ORGANIZATIONAL/STRONGER STORMS. GIVEN THE NWRN CONSENSUS
WE UPPED LATE POPS TO LIKELY, BUT ADDED NO ENHANCED WORDING.
WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG, HIGH PWATS WILL ALSO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

TEMPERATURES, GIVEN DECENT WINDS ALOFT PLUS NO INDICATION OF A
DEW POINT POOLING IN OUR CWA, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS, STAT GUIDANCE
(AND MODEL GUIDANCE MORE CONFIDENTLY) IS LIKELY TOO HIGH WITH
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS, OR ANY SURPRISE WONT BE ON THE HIGH SIDE. THIS
BRINGS HEAT INDEX VALUES CLOSE TO AIR TEMPERATURES AND LIKELY TOP
IN THE LOWER 90S. WE ARE GOING WITH THE HIGHER NAM STAT GUIDANCE
FOR MAX TEMPS GIVEN ONGOING GFS STAT GUIDANCE COOL BIAS WITH MAX
TEMPS.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, CONVECTION WILL TRY TO SPREAD ACROSS OUR CWA.
THERE ARE PREDICTIONS OF SHORT WAVES, SO WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE (NOT
AS HIGH AS THE AFTERNOON THOUGH), GOING THRU THE NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ENTERING OUR CWA ON THURSDAY. WITH THE
WEAKENING BOUNDARY, THE MODELS ARE OFFERING DIFFERING OPINIONS AS
TO HOW ACTIVE THE FRONT CAN REMAIN. THE GFS IS MOST BULLISH AS IT HAS
DEEPER QVEC CONVERGENCE, BULK SHEAR AND ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 250
MB JET. THE OTHER MODELS ARE A BIT MORE DIFFUSE. REGARDLESS, THE
RELATIVELY HIGHER POPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL BE CENTERED IN OUR
CWA. AS THE MODELS ARE DIFFERING AS TO HOW ACTIVE, WE KEPT POPS
AS CHANCE. COMBINATION OF MORE UPWIND DEBRIS AS FRONTAL PROXIMITY, AIR
MASS IS SLIGHTLY COOLER ON THU. MAX TEMPS NUDGED DOWN SLIGHTLY.
DEW POINTS THOUGH SHOULD POOL MORE EFFICIENTLY SO ZERO SUM GAIN
WITH APPARENT TEMPS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD LINGER AND DISSIPATE OVER OUR CWA
ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IT COULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR MORE
CONVECTION. BUT GIVEN, ITS DISSIPATING, OVERALL POPS ARE LOWER
THAN THURSDAY.

WE WILL KEY ON SUNDAY VS SATURDAY AS THE CONVECTIVELY MORE ACTIVE
DAY GIVEN THE BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS AND OVERALL TENDENCY FOR
A SLOWER TIMING. POPS HIT A RELATIVE LOW ON SATURDAY BEFORE RAMPING
UP AGAIN ON SUNDAY. ALSO GIVEN THE SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING, MAX TEMPS
ARE MUCH CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE AND EC MOS GUIDANCE THAN GFS MOS.
INITIAL LOOK AT MONDAY HAS THE FRONT STALLED JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA,
THIS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY COOLER WITH STILL SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PD, WITH HIGH PRES
OFF THE CST AND SWLY FLOW TODAY BECOMING MORE SLY AND THEN SWLY ON
TUE AGAIN.  WIND CUD GUST TO AROUND 20 KT THRU EVE, BEFORE
DECREASING TO LESS THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT.  ON TUE, THERE CUD BE SOME
DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA MAINLY FOR KABE/KRDG, BUT POPS ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN INDIVIDUAL TAF FCSTS.  ALSO, TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WHILE PREDOMINATELY VFR, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL PRODUCE SOME MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS (THUS MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS) SHOULD BE LESS.
THERE COULD STILL BE SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
A SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NRN WATERS THRU TONIGHT.
WIND CUD GUST TO AROUND 25 KT AND SEAS CUD REACH AROUND 5 FT, THOUGH
RIGHT NOW BOTH WIND AND SEAS ARE BELOW CRITERIA.  BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE, WILL NOT BE EXTENDING ENDING TIME.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
MIGHT PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS AND SEAS REACHING 5 FEET
ON THE OCEAN WATERS. USUALLY IN THESE SCENARIOS, THE MODELS
TEND TO BE TOO BULLISH. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR, BUT NOT
CONFIDENT TO EXTEND CURRENT ADVISORY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD BE BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS A WEAKER PRESSURE PATTERN SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOP 10 WARMEST MAY WILL OCCUR IN LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

THE FIRST 24 DAYS OF MAY IN OUR FORECAST AREA WERE AVERAGING ABOUT 5
TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

RUNNING THE NUMBERS FROM THE FCST THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH WE
FIND THE FOLLOWING.

FOR PHILADELPHIA...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1874. PROJECTING A
MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 69 TO 70 RISING FROM THE CURRENT
VALUE OF 67.8, AT LEAST 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HEADING FOR
MOST LIKELY THE THIRD WARMEST MAY ON RECORD. WARMEST AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE IN MAY ON RECORD WAS 70.8 IN 1991. THEN 69.2 2004 AND
68.2 IN 2012.

FOR ALLENTOWN...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1922. THE MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IS CURRENTLY 63.9 DEGREES. IT IS LIKELY TO
INCREASE BY A DEGREE OR TWO LATER THIS WEEK, LEADING TO A TOP 10
WARMEST MAY THIS YEAR AT ALLENTOWN. THE WARMEST AVERAGE TEMPERATURE
IN MAY WAS 67.2 BACK IN 1991.

FOR WILMINGTON.... THE MONTH OF MAY IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE TOP 5-
10 WARMEST. THE CURRENT MONTHLY TEMPERATURE IS 65.8 DEGREES AND
SHOULD RISE A DEGREE OR TWO BY MONTHS END. THE WARMEST MAY WAS IN
1896 WHERE THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 70.1 DEGREES. IN 1991 THE
MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 69.1 DEGREES.

FOR ATLANTIC CITY... THE MONTH IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE TOP THREE
WARMEST MAYS. CURRENTLY, THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH IS
64.5 DEGREES AND IS LIKELY TO RISE A DEGREE TOR TWO BY MONTHS END.
THE WARMEST MAY WAS BACK IN 2004 WHERE THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE
REACHED 66.9 DEGREES. IN 1991 THE MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WAS 66
DEGREES. BOTH 2011 AND 2012 SAW A MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 65
DEGREES.

NORMAL FIRST DATE OF 90 OR HIGHER.

PHILADELPHIA MAY 29 ALLENTOWN MAY 30 WILMINGTON JUNE 4 ATLANTIC CITY
JUNE 11.

*************************************************************


HERE IS OUR ANNUAL LOOK AS TO HOW HOT, HOT, HOT THE SUMMER WILL
BE BASED ON PAST PERFORMANCES.

A FULL FLEDGED EL NINO IS UNDERWAY IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC.
ALL DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS KEEP IT GOING,
THE DIFFERENCES THAT EXIST ARE TO ITS STRENGTH THROUGH THIS
UPCOMING SUMMER. THE DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS ARE
AVERAGING A MODERATE EL NINO FOR THE COMBINED SUMMER MONTHS.
SOME MODELS, INCLUDING THE CFS2 AND ECMWF ARE PREDICTING A STRONG
EL NINO. IN THE CPC MONITORING EL NINO ERA STARTING SINCE 1950,
THE HIGHEST (WARMEST) SUMMER ANOMALY RECORDED WAS +1.5C
(NEAR OR AT THE THRESHOLD FOR STRONG EL NINOS) DURING THE
SUMMER OF 1997.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL REALLY SEAL THE DEAL THAT THIS MAY WILL
BE UNSEASONABLY WARM IN PHILADELPHIA. IT "MAY" EVEN BE A TOP
THREE WARMEST. THIS FOLLOWS ON THE HEELS OF AN UNSEASONABLY WARM
APRIL. SINCE 1872, THE COMBINATION OF BOTH WARM (TOP THIRD OF ALL
YEARS) APRILS AND MAYS HAS ONLY OCCURRED TWENTY-THREE TIMES. BUT
IT HAS OCCURRED ELEVEN TIMES SINCE 1990 AND SIX OF THE LAST SEVEN
SPRINGS.

SO WE SCOURED THE CLIMATE RECORDS TO FIND BUDDING OR IN PROGRESS
EL NINOS THAT COINCIDED WITH BOTH WARM APRILS AND MAYS LOCALLY
IN THE CPC MONITORING ERA. WE FOUND THREE PAST SUMMERS THAT
MET THE CRITERIA. THE ONE SIGN IS THAT ALL THREE ANALOG SUMMERS
WERE WETTER THAN NORMAL, HOPEFULLY KEEPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS
FROM INTENSIFYING FURTHER.

THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE PREDICTIONS
FOR THIS UPCOMING SUMMER HAS WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL
WEATHER EXPECTED IN OUR AREA. THE INTERNATIONAL MULTI MODEL
ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC PREDICTING NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.

THE ANALOGS FOR PHILADELPHIA ARE:

YEAR    JUNE AVG   JULY AVG   AUGUST AVG   SUMMER AVG   SUMMER PCPN

1969      73.4        75.1      75.2         74.6        18.30
1977      68.6        77.8      76.2         74.2        15.50
1991      75.7        79.0      79.0         77.9        12.01
AVG       72.6        77.3      76.8         75.6        15.27

1981-
2010      73.3        78.1      76.6         76.0        11.28
NORMAL

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR OUR FORECAST AREA IS FOR EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>452.

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIGI/KLEIN
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/KLEIN/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GIGI/KLEIN/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...DRAG/GAINES/GIGI/LAGUARDIA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 251937
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
337 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT TRIES TO
MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND STALL IN OUR VICINITY
ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRES TO THE E WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE THRU
TONIGHT. AS IT DOES, AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL MOVE FROM THE UPR
MS VLY INTO SERN CANADA, BRINGING ITS ASSOCD WMFNT WITH IT
TONIGHT. THIS WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR, COUPLED WITH
THE S TO SWLY FLOW FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH.

EXPECT DRY CONDS AND MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.  MOISTURE WILL
SLOWLY BEGIN TO INCREASE, THOUGH TONIGHT SHOULD STILL BE RELATIVELY
COMFORTABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ON TUE, THE WK CDFNT ASSOCD WITH THE LOW IN SERN
CANADA WILL MOVE MAINLY N OF THE AREA DURG THE AFTN HOURS.  THIS
FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHWRS/TSTMS, MAINLY OVER THE NWRN AREAS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN.  THE GFS IS A BIT MORE BULLISH ON THE PRECIP THAN THE
ECMWF, NAM/WRF AND CMC.  SO WHILE ITS PSBL FOR SOME PRECIP FURTHER S
AND E, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE CHANGES ATTM.

WITH TEMPS FCST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPR 80S DEW POINTS STILL LOOK TO
BE IN THE LOWER 60S, SO IT LOOKS TO BE HOT BUT COMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND WRF-NMMB/NAM INITIALIZATION LOOKED PRETTY GOOD WITH
NO CLEAR CUT WINNER. HOWEVER, THE DP/DT ON THE GFS RUN SHOWED A
SLOWER EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN WHICH WE TOOK INTO CONSIDERATION.
WE BASICALLY ARE GOING TO END MAY WITH TYPICAL JULY WEATHER,
WARMER AND MORE HUMID WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WHILE
THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES (NAM/EC PREFER WED OVER THU, GFS PREFERS
SAT OVER SUN) AS TO THE MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DAYS, WE ARE
GOING TO TAKE A COMBINATION OF CONSENSUS AND BIAS ADJUSTING TO
KEY ON THU AND SUN AS THE MOST CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAYS IN THE
LONG TERM AND SATURDAY THE RELATIVE LULL. REGARDLESS AFTER
NOT BEING ABLE TO BUY A THUNDERSTORM, ITS TOUGH TO FIND A
DAY TO NOT INCLUDE A THUNDERSTORM.

THERE IS ACTIVE CONVECTION IN THE GULF COASTS STATES AND THE MEAN
FLOW IS GOING TO TAKE IT TOWARD THE WESTERN PART OF OUR CWA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. WE CARRY SOME LOW POPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL
BE A MORE HUMID NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS NOT AS LOW.

ON WEDNESDAY, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COME CLOSER TO OUR CWA.
COUPLED WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS AND THE RELATIVE CORE OF WARMEST
AIR ALOFT (925MB ANALYSIS HAS IT OVER PA THIS MORNING, BUT MORE
SOUTH GROWN HEAT WILL LIKELY KEEP A STATUS QUO IN 850/925MB
TEMPS THRU WED) PASSING OVER OUR CWA WOULD BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
TSTMS TO DEVELOP WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS WITHIN REACH. THE LATEST
ECMWF TAKES A SLIGHTLY FASTER TIMING THAN MOST OTHER MODELS.
THIS BUCKS THE TREND OF AN OVERALL SLOWER EVOLUTION THAT
THE MODELS HAVE THRU TODAY.

LOOKING AT MODELING SIMILARITIES VS DIFFERENCES, ALL OF THEM HAVE
THE MOST CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTION THERMODYNAMIC FEATURES IN THE NWRN
PART OF OUR CWA. THE GFS AND WRF-NMM AGREE ABOUT MID LEVEL DRY
AIR MAKING STORMS PULSIER. BUT FROM THERE KINEMATICALLY THERE ARE
TOO MANY DIFFERENCES WED VS THU TO RESOLVE AT THIS TIME AS TO
MORE ORGANIZATIONAL/STRONGER STORMS. GIVEN THE NWRN CONSENSUS
WE UPPED LATE POPS TO LIKELY, BUT ADDED NO ENHANCED WORDING.
WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG, HIGH PWATS WILL ALSO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

TEMPERATURES, GIVEN DECENT WINDS ALOFT PLUS NO INDICATION OF A
DEW POINT POOLING IN OUR CWA, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS, STAT GUIDANCE
(AND MODEL GUIDANCE MORE CONFIDENTLY) IS LIKELY TOO HIGH WITH
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS, OR ANY SURPRISE WONT BE ON THE HIGH SIDE. THIS
BRINGS HEAT INDEX VALUES CLOSE TO AIR TEMPERATURES AND LIKELY TOP
IN THE LOWER 90S. WE ARE GOING WITH THE HIGHER NAM STAT GUIDANCE
FOR MAX TEMPS GIVEN ONGOING GFS STAT GUIDANCE COOL BIAS WITH MAX
TEMPS.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, CONVECTION WILL TRY TO SPREAD ACROSS OUR CWA.
THERE ARE PREDICTIONS OF SHORT WAVES, SO WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE (NOT
AS HIGH AS THE AFTERNOON THOUGH), GOING THRU THE NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ENTERING OUR CWA ON THURSDAY. WITH THE
WEAKENING BOUNDARY, THE MODELS ARE OFFERING DIFFERING OPINIONS AS
TO HOW ACTIVE THE FRONT CAN REMAIN. THE GFS IS MOST BULLISH AS IT HAS
DEEPER QVEC CONVERGENCE, BULK SHEAR AND ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 250
MB JET. THE OTHER MODELS ARE A BIT MORE DIFFUSE. REGARDLESS, THE
RELATIVELY HIGHER POPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL BE CENTERED IN OUR
CWA. AS THE MODELS ARE DIFFERING AS TO HOW ACTIVE, WE KEPT POPS
AS CHANCE. COMBINATION OF MORE UPWIND DEBRIS AS FRONTAL PROXIMITY, AIR
MASS IS SLIGHTLY COOLER ON THU. MAX TEMPS NUDGED DOWN SLIGHTLY.
DEW POINTS THOUGH SHOULD POOL MORE EFFICIENTLY SO ZERO SUM GAIN
WITH APPARENT TEMPS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD LINGER AND DISSIPATE OVER OUR CWA
ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IT COULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR MORE
CONVECTION. BUT GIVEN, ITS DISSIPATING, OVERALL POPS ARE LOWER
THAN THURSDAY.

WE WILL KEY ON SUNDAY VS SATURDAY AS THE CONVECTIVELY MORE ACTIVE
DAY GIVEN THE BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS AND OVERALL TENDENCY FOR
A SLOWER TIMING. POPS HIT A RELATIVE LOW ON SATURDAY BEFORE RAMPING
UP AGAIN ON SUNDAY. ALSO GIVEN THE SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING, MAX TEMPS
ARE MUCH CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE AND EC MOS GUIDANCE THAN GFS MOS.
INITIAL LOOK AT MONDAY HAS THE FRONT STALLED JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA,
THIS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY COOLER WITH STILL SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PD, WITH HIGH PRES
OFF THE CST AND SWLY FLOW TODAY BECOMING MORE SLY AND THEN SWLY ON
TUE AGAIN.  WIND CUD GUST TO AROUND 20 KT THRU EVE, BEFORE
DECREASING TO LESS THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT.  ON TUE, THERE CUD BE SOME
DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA MAINLY FOR KABE/KRDG, BUT POPS ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN INDIVIDUAL TAF FCSTS.  ALSO, TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WHILE PREDOMINATELY VFR, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL PRODUCE SOME MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS (THUS MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS) SHOULD BE LESS.
THERE COULD STILL BE SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
A SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NRN WATERS THRU TONIGHT.
WIND CUD GUST TO AROUND 25 KT AND SEAS CUD REACH AROUND 5 FT, THOUGH
RIGHT NOW BOTH WIND AND SEAS ARE BELOW CRITERIA.  BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE, WILL NOT BE EXTENDING ENDING TIME.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
MIGHT PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS AND SEAS REACHING 5 FEET
ON THE OCEAN WATERS. USUALLY IN THESE SCENARIOS, THE MODELS
TEND TO BE TOO BULLISH. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR, BUT NOT
CONFIDENT TO EXTEND CURRENT ADVISORY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD BE BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS A WEAKER PRESSURE PATTERN SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOP 10 WARMEST MAY WILL OCCUR IN LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

THE FIRST 24 DAYS OF MAY IN OUR FORECAST AREA WERE AVERAGING ABOUT 5
TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

RUNNING THE NUMBERS FROM THE FCST THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH WE
FIND THE FOLLOWING.

FOR PHILADELPHIA...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1874. PROJECTING A
MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 69 TO 70 RISING FROM THE CURRENT
VALUE OF 67.8, AT LEAST 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HEADING FOR
MOST LIKELY THE THIRD WARMEST MAY ON RECORD. WARMEST AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE IN MAY ON RECORD WAS 70.8 IN 1991. THEN 69.2 2004 AND
68.2 IN 2012.

FOR ALLENTOWN...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1922. THE MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IS CURRENTLY 63.9 DEGREES. IT IS LIKELY TO
INCREASE BY A DEGREE OR TWO LATER THIS WEEK, LEADING TO A TOP 10
WARMEST MAY THIS YEAR AT ALLENTOWN. THE WARMEST AVERAGE TEMPERATURE
IN MAY WAS 67.2 BACK IN 1991.

FOR WILMINGTON.... THE MONTH OF MAY IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE TOP 5-
10 WARMEST. THE CURRENT MONTHLY TEMPERATURE IS 65.8 DEGREES AND
SHOULD RISE A DEGREE OR TWO BY MONTHS END. THE WARMEST MAY WAS IN
1896 WHERE THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 70.1 DEGREES. IN 1991 THE
MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 69.1 DEGREES.

FOR ATLANTIC CITY... THE MONTH IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE TOP THREE
WARMEST MAYS. CURRENTLY, THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH IS
64.5 DEGREES AND IS LIKELY TO RISE A DEGREE TOR TWO BY MONTHS END.
THE WARMEST MAY WAS BACK IN 2004 WHERE THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE
REACHED 66.9 DEGREES. IN 1991 THE MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WAS 66
DEGREES. BOTH 2011 AND 2012 SAW A MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 65
DEGREES.

NORMAL FIRST DATE OF 90 OR HIGHER.

PHILADELPHIA MAY 29 ALLENTOWN MAY 30 WILMINGTON JUNE 4 ATLANTIC CITY
JUNE 11.

*************************************************************


HERE IS OUR ANNUAL LOOK AS TO HOW HOT, HOT, HOT THE SUMMER WILL
BE BASED ON PAST PERFORMANCES.

A FULL FLEDGED EL NINO IS UNDERWAY IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC.
ALL DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS KEEP IT GOING,
THE DIFFERENCES THAT EXIST ARE TO ITS STRENGTH THROUGH THIS
UPCOMING SUMMER. THE DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS ARE
AVERAGING A MODERATE EL NINO FOR THE COMBINED SUMMER MONTHS.
SOME MODELS, INCLUDING THE CFS2 AND ECMWF ARE PREDICTING A STRONG
EL NINO. IN THE CPC MONITORING EL NINO ERA STARTING SINCE 1950,
THE HIGHEST (WARMEST) SUMMER ANOMALY RECORDED WAS +1.5C
(NEAR OR AT THE THRESHOLD FOR STRONG EL NINOS) DURING THE
SUMMER OF 1997.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL REALLY SEAL THE DEAL THAT THIS MAY WILL
BE UNSEASONABLY WARM IN PHILADELPHIA. IT "MAY" EVEN BE A TOP
THREE WARMEST. THIS FOLLOWS ON THE HEELS OF AN UNSEASONABLY WARM
APRIL. SINCE 1872, THE COMBINATION OF BOTH WARM (TOP THIRD OF ALL
YEARS) APRILS AND MAYS HAS ONLY OCCURRED TWENTY-THREE TIMES. BUT
IT HAS OCCURRED ELEVEN TIMES SINCE 1990 AND SIX OF THE LAST SEVEN
SPRINGS.

SO WE SCOURED THE CLIMATE RECORDS TO FIND BUDDING OR IN PROGRESS
EL NINOS THAT COINCIDED WITH BOTH WARM APRILS AND MAYS LOCALLY
IN THE CPC MONITORING ERA. WE FOUND THREE PAST SUMMERS THAT
MET THE CRITERIA. THE ONE SIGN IS THAT ALL THREE ANALOG SUMMERS
WERE WETTER THAN NORMAL, HOPEFULLY KEEPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS
FROM INTENSIFYING FURTHER.

THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE PREDICTIONS
FOR THIS UPCOMING SUMMER HAS WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL
WEATHER EXPECTED IN OUR AREA. THE INTERNATIONAL MULTI MODEL
ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC PREDICTING NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.

THE ANALOGS FOR PHILADELPHIA ARE:

YEAR    JUNE AVG   JULY AVG   AUGUST AVG   SUMMER AVG   SUMMER PCPN

1969      73.4        75.1      75.2         74.6        18.30
1977      68.6        77.8      76.2         74.2        15.50
1991      75.7        79.0      79.0         77.9        12.01
AVG       72.6        77.3      76.8         75.6        15.27

1981-
2010      73.3        78.1      76.6         76.0        11.28
NORMAL

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR OUR FORECAST AREA IS FOR EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>452.

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIGI/KLEIN
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/KLEIN/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GIGI/KLEIN/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...DRAG/GAINES/GIGI/LAGUARDIA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 251937
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
337 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT TRIES TO
MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND STALL IN OUR VICINITY
ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRES TO THE E WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE THRU
TONIGHT. AS IT DOES, AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL MOVE FROM THE UPR
MS VLY INTO SERN CANADA, BRINGING ITS ASSOCD WMFNT WITH IT
TONIGHT. THIS WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR, COUPLED WITH
THE S TO SWLY FLOW FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH.

EXPECT DRY CONDS AND MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.  MOISTURE WILL
SLOWLY BEGIN TO INCREASE, THOUGH TONIGHT SHOULD STILL BE RELATIVELY
COMFORTABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ON TUE, THE WK CDFNT ASSOCD WITH THE LOW IN SERN
CANADA WILL MOVE MAINLY N OF THE AREA DURG THE AFTN HOURS.  THIS
FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHWRS/TSTMS, MAINLY OVER THE NWRN AREAS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN.  THE GFS IS A BIT MORE BULLISH ON THE PRECIP THAN THE
ECMWF, NAM/WRF AND CMC.  SO WHILE ITS PSBL FOR SOME PRECIP FURTHER S
AND E, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE CHANGES ATTM.

WITH TEMPS FCST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPR 80S DEW POINTS STILL LOOK TO
BE IN THE LOWER 60S, SO IT LOOKS TO BE HOT BUT COMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND WRF-NMMB/NAM INITIALIZATION LOOKED PRETTY GOOD WITH
NO CLEAR CUT WINNER. HOWEVER, THE DP/DT ON THE GFS RUN SHOWED A
SLOWER EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN WHICH WE TOOK INTO CONSIDERATION.
WE BASICALLY ARE GOING TO END MAY WITH TYPICAL JULY WEATHER,
WARMER AND MORE HUMID WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WHILE
THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES (NAM/EC PREFER WED OVER THU, GFS PREFERS
SAT OVER SUN) AS TO THE MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DAYS, WE ARE
GOING TO TAKE A COMBINATION OF CONSENSUS AND BIAS ADJUSTING TO
KEY ON THU AND SUN AS THE MOST CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAYS IN THE
LONG TERM AND SATURDAY THE RELATIVE LULL. REGARDLESS AFTER
NOT BEING ABLE TO BUY A THUNDERSTORM, ITS TOUGH TO FIND A
DAY TO NOT INCLUDE A THUNDERSTORM.

THERE IS ACTIVE CONVECTION IN THE GULF COASTS STATES AND THE MEAN
FLOW IS GOING TO TAKE IT TOWARD THE WESTERN PART OF OUR CWA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. WE CARRY SOME LOW POPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL
BE A MORE HUMID NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS NOT AS LOW.

ON WEDNESDAY, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COME CLOSER TO OUR CWA.
COUPLED WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS AND THE RELATIVE CORE OF WARMEST
AIR ALOFT (925MB ANALYSIS HAS IT OVER PA THIS MORNING, BUT MORE
SOUTH GROWN HEAT WILL LIKELY KEEP A STATUS QUO IN 850/925MB
TEMPS THRU WED) PASSING OVER OUR CWA WOULD BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
TSTMS TO DEVELOP WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS WITHIN REACH. THE LATEST
ECMWF TAKES A SLIGHTLY FASTER TIMING THAN MOST OTHER MODELS.
THIS BUCKS THE TREND OF AN OVERALL SLOWER EVOLUTION THAT
THE MODELS HAVE THRU TODAY.

LOOKING AT MODELING SIMILARITIES VS DIFFERENCES, ALL OF THEM HAVE
THE MOST CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTION THERMODYNAMIC FEATURES IN THE NWRN
PART OF OUR CWA. THE GFS AND WRF-NMM AGREE ABOUT MID LEVEL DRY
AIR MAKING STORMS PULSIER. BUT FROM THERE KINEMATICALLY THERE ARE
TOO MANY DIFFERENCES WED VS THU TO RESOLVE AT THIS TIME AS TO
MORE ORGANIZATIONAL/STRONGER STORMS. GIVEN THE NWRN CONSENSUS
WE UPPED LATE POPS TO LIKELY, BUT ADDED NO ENHANCED WORDING.
WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG, HIGH PWATS WILL ALSO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

TEMPERATURES, GIVEN DECENT WINDS ALOFT PLUS NO INDICATION OF A
DEW POINT POOLING IN OUR CWA, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS, STAT GUIDANCE
(AND MODEL GUIDANCE MORE CONFIDENTLY) IS LIKELY TOO HIGH WITH
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS, OR ANY SURPRISE WONT BE ON THE HIGH SIDE. THIS
BRINGS HEAT INDEX VALUES CLOSE TO AIR TEMPERATURES AND LIKELY TOP
IN THE LOWER 90S. WE ARE GOING WITH THE HIGHER NAM STAT GUIDANCE
FOR MAX TEMPS GIVEN ONGOING GFS STAT GUIDANCE COOL BIAS WITH MAX
TEMPS.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, CONVECTION WILL TRY TO SPREAD ACROSS OUR CWA.
THERE ARE PREDICTIONS OF SHORT WAVES, SO WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE (NOT
AS HIGH AS THE AFTERNOON THOUGH), GOING THRU THE NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ENTERING OUR CWA ON THURSDAY. WITH THE
WEAKENING BOUNDARY, THE MODELS ARE OFFERING DIFFERING OPINIONS AS
TO HOW ACTIVE THE FRONT CAN REMAIN. THE GFS IS MOST BULLISH AS IT HAS
DEEPER QVEC CONVERGENCE, BULK SHEAR AND ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 250
MB JET. THE OTHER MODELS ARE A BIT MORE DIFFUSE. REGARDLESS, THE
RELATIVELY HIGHER POPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL BE CENTERED IN OUR
CWA. AS THE MODELS ARE DIFFERING AS TO HOW ACTIVE, WE KEPT POPS
AS CHANCE. COMBINATION OF MORE UPWIND DEBRIS AS FRONTAL PROXIMITY, AIR
MASS IS SLIGHTLY COOLER ON THU. MAX TEMPS NUDGED DOWN SLIGHTLY.
DEW POINTS THOUGH SHOULD POOL MORE EFFICIENTLY SO ZERO SUM GAIN
WITH APPARENT TEMPS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD LINGER AND DISSIPATE OVER OUR CWA
ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IT COULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR MORE
CONVECTION. BUT GIVEN, ITS DISSIPATING, OVERALL POPS ARE LOWER
THAN THURSDAY.

WE WILL KEY ON SUNDAY VS SATURDAY AS THE CONVECTIVELY MORE ACTIVE
DAY GIVEN THE BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS AND OVERALL TENDENCY FOR
A SLOWER TIMING. POPS HIT A RELATIVE LOW ON SATURDAY BEFORE RAMPING
UP AGAIN ON SUNDAY. ALSO GIVEN THE SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING, MAX TEMPS
ARE MUCH CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE AND EC MOS GUIDANCE THAN GFS MOS.
INITIAL LOOK AT MONDAY HAS THE FRONT STALLED JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA,
THIS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY COOLER WITH STILL SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PD, WITH HIGH PRES
OFF THE CST AND SWLY FLOW TODAY BECOMING MORE SLY AND THEN SWLY ON
TUE AGAIN.  WIND CUD GUST TO AROUND 20 KT THRU EVE, BEFORE
DECREASING TO LESS THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT.  ON TUE, THERE CUD BE SOME
DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA MAINLY FOR KABE/KRDG, BUT POPS ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN INDIVIDUAL TAF FCSTS.  ALSO, TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WHILE PREDOMINATELY VFR, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL PRODUCE SOME MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS (THUS MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS) SHOULD BE LESS.
THERE COULD STILL BE SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
A SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NRN WATERS THRU TONIGHT.
WIND CUD GUST TO AROUND 25 KT AND SEAS CUD REACH AROUND 5 FT, THOUGH
RIGHT NOW BOTH WIND AND SEAS ARE BELOW CRITERIA.  BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE, WILL NOT BE EXTENDING ENDING TIME.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
MIGHT PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS AND SEAS REACHING 5 FEET
ON THE OCEAN WATERS. USUALLY IN THESE SCENARIOS, THE MODELS
TEND TO BE TOO BULLISH. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR, BUT NOT
CONFIDENT TO EXTEND CURRENT ADVISORY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD BE BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS A WEAKER PRESSURE PATTERN SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOP 10 WARMEST MAY WILL OCCUR IN LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

THE FIRST 24 DAYS OF MAY IN OUR FORECAST AREA WERE AVERAGING ABOUT 5
TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

RUNNING THE NUMBERS FROM THE FCST THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH WE
FIND THE FOLLOWING.

FOR PHILADELPHIA...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1874. PROJECTING A
MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 69 TO 70 RISING FROM THE CURRENT
VALUE OF 67.8, AT LEAST 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HEADING FOR
MOST LIKELY THE THIRD WARMEST MAY ON RECORD. WARMEST AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE IN MAY ON RECORD WAS 70.8 IN 1991. THEN 69.2 2004 AND
68.2 IN 2012.

FOR ALLENTOWN...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1922. THE MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IS CURRENTLY 63.9 DEGREES. IT IS LIKELY TO
INCREASE BY A DEGREE OR TWO LATER THIS WEEK, LEADING TO A TOP 10
WARMEST MAY THIS YEAR AT ALLENTOWN. THE WARMEST AVERAGE TEMPERATURE
IN MAY WAS 67.2 BACK IN 1991.

FOR WILMINGTON.... THE MONTH OF MAY IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE TOP 5-
10 WARMEST. THE CURRENT MONTHLY TEMPERATURE IS 65.8 DEGREES AND
SHOULD RISE A DEGREE OR TWO BY MONTHS END. THE WARMEST MAY WAS IN
1896 WHERE THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 70.1 DEGREES. IN 1991 THE
MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 69.1 DEGREES.

FOR ATLANTIC CITY... THE MONTH IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE TOP THREE
WARMEST MAYS. CURRENTLY, THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH IS
64.5 DEGREES AND IS LIKELY TO RISE A DEGREE TOR TWO BY MONTHS END.
THE WARMEST MAY WAS BACK IN 2004 WHERE THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE
REACHED 66.9 DEGREES. IN 1991 THE MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WAS 66
DEGREES. BOTH 2011 AND 2012 SAW A MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 65
DEGREES.

NORMAL FIRST DATE OF 90 OR HIGHER.

PHILADELPHIA MAY 29 ALLENTOWN MAY 30 WILMINGTON JUNE 4 ATLANTIC CITY
JUNE 11.

*************************************************************


HERE IS OUR ANNUAL LOOK AS TO HOW HOT, HOT, HOT THE SUMMER WILL
BE BASED ON PAST PERFORMANCES.

A FULL FLEDGED EL NINO IS UNDERWAY IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC.
ALL DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS KEEP IT GOING,
THE DIFFERENCES THAT EXIST ARE TO ITS STRENGTH THROUGH THIS
UPCOMING SUMMER. THE DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS ARE
AVERAGING A MODERATE EL NINO FOR THE COMBINED SUMMER MONTHS.
SOME MODELS, INCLUDING THE CFS2 AND ECMWF ARE PREDICTING A STRONG
EL NINO. IN THE CPC MONITORING EL NINO ERA STARTING SINCE 1950,
THE HIGHEST (WARMEST) SUMMER ANOMALY RECORDED WAS +1.5C
(NEAR OR AT THE THRESHOLD FOR STRONG EL NINOS) DURING THE
SUMMER OF 1997.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL REALLY SEAL THE DEAL THAT THIS MAY WILL
BE UNSEASONABLY WARM IN PHILADELPHIA. IT "MAY" EVEN BE A TOP
THREE WARMEST. THIS FOLLOWS ON THE HEELS OF AN UNSEASONABLY WARM
APRIL. SINCE 1872, THE COMBINATION OF BOTH WARM (TOP THIRD OF ALL
YEARS) APRILS AND MAYS HAS ONLY OCCURRED TWENTY-THREE TIMES. BUT
IT HAS OCCURRED ELEVEN TIMES SINCE 1990 AND SIX OF THE LAST SEVEN
SPRINGS.

SO WE SCOURED THE CLIMATE RECORDS TO FIND BUDDING OR IN PROGRESS
EL NINOS THAT COINCIDED WITH BOTH WARM APRILS AND MAYS LOCALLY
IN THE CPC MONITORING ERA. WE FOUND THREE PAST SUMMERS THAT
MET THE CRITERIA. THE ONE SIGN IS THAT ALL THREE ANALOG SUMMERS
WERE WETTER THAN NORMAL, HOPEFULLY KEEPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS
FROM INTENSIFYING FURTHER.

THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE PREDICTIONS
FOR THIS UPCOMING SUMMER HAS WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL
WEATHER EXPECTED IN OUR AREA. THE INTERNATIONAL MULTI MODEL
ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC PREDICTING NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.

THE ANALOGS FOR PHILADELPHIA ARE:

YEAR    JUNE AVG   JULY AVG   AUGUST AVG   SUMMER AVG   SUMMER PCPN

1969      73.4        75.1      75.2         74.6        18.30
1977      68.6        77.8      76.2         74.2        15.50
1991      75.7        79.0      79.0         77.9        12.01
AVG       72.6        77.3      76.8         75.6        15.27

1981-
2010      73.3        78.1      76.6         76.0        11.28
NORMAL

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR OUR FORECAST AREA IS FOR EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>452.

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIGI/KLEIN
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/KLEIN/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GIGI/KLEIN/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...DRAG/GAINES/GIGI/LAGUARDIA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 251937
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
337 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT TRIES TO
MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND STALL IN OUR VICINITY
ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRES TO THE E WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE THRU
TONIGHT. AS IT DOES, AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL MOVE FROM THE UPR
MS VLY INTO SERN CANADA, BRINGING ITS ASSOCD WMFNT WITH IT
TONIGHT. THIS WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR, COUPLED WITH
THE S TO SWLY FLOW FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH.

EXPECT DRY CONDS AND MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.  MOISTURE WILL
SLOWLY BEGIN TO INCREASE, THOUGH TONIGHT SHOULD STILL BE RELATIVELY
COMFORTABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ON TUE, THE WK CDFNT ASSOCD WITH THE LOW IN SERN
CANADA WILL MOVE MAINLY N OF THE AREA DURG THE AFTN HOURS.  THIS
FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHWRS/TSTMS, MAINLY OVER THE NWRN AREAS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN.  THE GFS IS A BIT MORE BULLISH ON THE PRECIP THAN THE
ECMWF, NAM/WRF AND CMC.  SO WHILE ITS PSBL FOR SOME PRECIP FURTHER S
AND E, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE CHANGES ATTM.

WITH TEMPS FCST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPR 80S DEW POINTS STILL LOOK TO
BE IN THE LOWER 60S, SO IT LOOKS TO BE HOT BUT COMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND WRF-NMMB/NAM INITIALIZATION LOOKED PRETTY GOOD WITH
NO CLEAR CUT WINNER. HOWEVER, THE DP/DT ON THE GFS RUN SHOWED A
SLOWER EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN WHICH WE TOOK INTO CONSIDERATION.
WE BASICALLY ARE GOING TO END MAY WITH TYPICAL JULY WEATHER,
WARMER AND MORE HUMID WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WHILE
THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES (NAM/EC PREFER WED OVER THU, GFS PREFERS
SAT OVER SUN) AS TO THE MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DAYS, WE ARE
GOING TO TAKE A COMBINATION OF CONSENSUS AND BIAS ADJUSTING TO
KEY ON THU AND SUN AS THE MOST CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAYS IN THE
LONG TERM AND SATURDAY THE RELATIVE LULL. REGARDLESS AFTER
NOT BEING ABLE TO BUY A THUNDERSTORM, ITS TOUGH TO FIND A
DAY TO NOT INCLUDE A THUNDERSTORM.

THERE IS ACTIVE CONVECTION IN THE GULF COASTS STATES AND THE MEAN
FLOW IS GOING TO TAKE IT TOWARD THE WESTERN PART OF OUR CWA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. WE CARRY SOME LOW POPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL
BE A MORE HUMID NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS NOT AS LOW.

ON WEDNESDAY, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COME CLOSER TO OUR CWA.
COUPLED WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS AND THE RELATIVE CORE OF WARMEST
AIR ALOFT (925MB ANALYSIS HAS IT OVER PA THIS MORNING, BUT MORE
SOUTH GROWN HEAT WILL LIKELY KEEP A STATUS QUO IN 850/925MB
TEMPS THRU WED) PASSING OVER OUR CWA WOULD BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
TSTMS TO DEVELOP WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS WITHIN REACH. THE LATEST
ECMWF TAKES A SLIGHTLY FASTER TIMING THAN MOST OTHER MODELS.
THIS BUCKS THE TREND OF AN OVERALL SLOWER EVOLUTION THAT
THE MODELS HAVE THRU TODAY.

LOOKING AT MODELING SIMILARITIES VS DIFFERENCES, ALL OF THEM HAVE
THE MOST CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTION THERMODYNAMIC FEATURES IN THE NWRN
PART OF OUR CWA. THE GFS AND WRF-NMM AGREE ABOUT MID LEVEL DRY
AIR MAKING STORMS PULSIER. BUT FROM THERE KINEMATICALLY THERE ARE
TOO MANY DIFFERENCES WED VS THU TO RESOLVE AT THIS TIME AS TO
MORE ORGANIZATIONAL/STRONGER STORMS. GIVEN THE NWRN CONSENSUS
WE UPPED LATE POPS TO LIKELY, BUT ADDED NO ENHANCED WORDING.
WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG, HIGH PWATS WILL ALSO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

TEMPERATURES, GIVEN DECENT WINDS ALOFT PLUS NO INDICATION OF A
DEW POINT POOLING IN OUR CWA, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS, STAT GUIDANCE
(AND MODEL GUIDANCE MORE CONFIDENTLY) IS LIKELY TOO HIGH WITH
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS, OR ANY SURPRISE WONT BE ON THE HIGH SIDE. THIS
BRINGS HEAT INDEX VALUES CLOSE TO AIR TEMPERATURES AND LIKELY TOP
IN THE LOWER 90S. WE ARE GOING WITH THE HIGHER NAM STAT GUIDANCE
FOR MAX TEMPS GIVEN ONGOING GFS STAT GUIDANCE COOL BIAS WITH MAX
TEMPS.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, CONVECTION WILL TRY TO SPREAD ACROSS OUR CWA.
THERE ARE PREDICTIONS OF SHORT WAVES, SO WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE (NOT
AS HIGH AS THE AFTERNOON THOUGH), GOING THRU THE NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ENTERING OUR CWA ON THURSDAY. WITH THE
WEAKENING BOUNDARY, THE MODELS ARE OFFERING DIFFERING OPINIONS AS
TO HOW ACTIVE THE FRONT CAN REMAIN. THE GFS IS MOST BULLISH AS IT HAS
DEEPER QVEC CONVERGENCE, BULK SHEAR AND ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 250
MB JET. THE OTHER MODELS ARE A BIT MORE DIFFUSE. REGARDLESS, THE
RELATIVELY HIGHER POPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL BE CENTERED IN OUR
CWA. AS THE MODELS ARE DIFFERING AS TO HOW ACTIVE, WE KEPT POPS
AS CHANCE. COMBINATION OF MORE UPWIND DEBRIS AS FRONTAL PROXIMITY, AIR
MASS IS SLIGHTLY COOLER ON THU. MAX TEMPS NUDGED DOWN SLIGHTLY.
DEW POINTS THOUGH SHOULD POOL MORE EFFICIENTLY SO ZERO SUM GAIN
WITH APPARENT TEMPS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD LINGER AND DISSIPATE OVER OUR CWA
ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IT COULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR MORE
CONVECTION. BUT GIVEN, ITS DISSIPATING, OVERALL POPS ARE LOWER
THAN THURSDAY.

WE WILL KEY ON SUNDAY VS SATURDAY AS THE CONVECTIVELY MORE ACTIVE
DAY GIVEN THE BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS AND OVERALL TENDENCY FOR
A SLOWER TIMING. POPS HIT A RELATIVE LOW ON SATURDAY BEFORE RAMPING
UP AGAIN ON SUNDAY. ALSO GIVEN THE SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING, MAX TEMPS
ARE MUCH CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE AND EC MOS GUIDANCE THAN GFS MOS.
INITIAL LOOK AT MONDAY HAS THE FRONT STALLED JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA,
THIS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY COOLER WITH STILL SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PD, WITH HIGH PRES
OFF THE CST AND SWLY FLOW TODAY BECOMING MORE SLY AND THEN SWLY ON
TUE AGAIN.  WIND CUD GUST TO AROUND 20 KT THRU EVE, BEFORE
DECREASING TO LESS THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT.  ON TUE, THERE CUD BE SOME
DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA MAINLY FOR KABE/KRDG, BUT POPS ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN INDIVIDUAL TAF FCSTS.  ALSO, TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WHILE PREDOMINATELY VFR, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL PRODUCE SOME MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS (THUS MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS) SHOULD BE LESS.
THERE COULD STILL BE SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
A SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NRN WATERS THRU TONIGHT.
WIND CUD GUST TO AROUND 25 KT AND SEAS CUD REACH AROUND 5 FT, THOUGH
RIGHT NOW BOTH WIND AND SEAS ARE BELOW CRITERIA.  BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE, WILL NOT BE EXTENDING ENDING TIME.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
MIGHT PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS AND SEAS REACHING 5 FEET
ON THE OCEAN WATERS. USUALLY IN THESE SCENARIOS, THE MODELS
TEND TO BE TOO BULLISH. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR, BUT NOT
CONFIDENT TO EXTEND CURRENT ADVISORY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD BE BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS A WEAKER PRESSURE PATTERN SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOP 10 WARMEST MAY WILL OCCUR IN LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

THE FIRST 24 DAYS OF MAY IN OUR FORECAST AREA WERE AVERAGING ABOUT 5
TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

RUNNING THE NUMBERS FROM THE FCST THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH WE
FIND THE FOLLOWING.

FOR PHILADELPHIA...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1874. PROJECTING A
MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 69 TO 70 RISING FROM THE CURRENT
VALUE OF 67.8, AT LEAST 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HEADING FOR
MOST LIKELY THE THIRD WARMEST MAY ON RECORD. WARMEST AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE IN MAY ON RECORD WAS 70.8 IN 1991. THEN 69.2 2004 AND
68.2 IN 2012.

FOR ALLENTOWN...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1922. THE MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IS CURRENTLY 63.9 DEGREES. IT IS LIKELY TO
INCREASE BY A DEGREE OR TWO LATER THIS WEEK, LEADING TO A TOP 10
WARMEST MAY THIS YEAR AT ALLENTOWN. THE WARMEST AVERAGE TEMPERATURE
IN MAY WAS 67.2 BACK IN 1991.

FOR WILMINGTON.... THE MONTH OF MAY IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE TOP 5-
10 WARMEST. THE CURRENT MONTHLY TEMPERATURE IS 65.8 DEGREES AND
SHOULD RISE A DEGREE OR TWO BY MONTHS END. THE WARMEST MAY WAS IN
1896 WHERE THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 70.1 DEGREES. IN 1991 THE
MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 69.1 DEGREES.

FOR ATLANTIC CITY... THE MONTH IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE TOP THREE
WARMEST MAYS. CURRENTLY, THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH IS
64.5 DEGREES AND IS LIKELY TO RISE A DEGREE TOR TWO BY MONTHS END.
THE WARMEST MAY WAS BACK IN 2004 WHERE THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE
REACHED 66.9 DEGREES. IN 1991 THE MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WAS 66
DEGREES. BOTH 2011 AND 2012 SAW A MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 65
DEGREES.

NORMAL FIRST DATE OF 90 OR HIGHER.

PHILADELPHIA MAY 29 ALLENTOWN MAY 30 WILMINGTON JUNE 4 ATLANTIC CITY
JUNE 11.

*************************************************************


HERE IS OUR ANNUAL LOOK AS TO HOW HOT, HOT, HOT THE SUMMER WILL
BE BASED ON PAST PERFORMANCES.

A FULL FLEDGED EL NINO IS UNDERWAY IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC.
ALL DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS KEEP IT GOING,
THE DIFFERENCES THAT EXIST ARE TO ITS STRENGTH THROUGH THIS
UPCOMING SUMMER. THE DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS ARE
AVERAGING A MODERATE EL NINO FOR THE COMBINED SUMMER MONTHS.
SOME MODELS, INCLUDING THE CFS2 AND ECMWF ARE PREDICTING A STRONG
EL NINO. IN THE CPC MONITORING EL NINO ERA STARTING SINCE 1950,
THE HIGHEST (WARMEST) SUMMER ANOMALY RECORDED WAS +1.5C
(NEAR OR AT THE THRESHOLD FOR STRONG EL NINOS) DURING THE
SUMMER OF 1997.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL REALLY SEAL THE DEAL THAT THIS MAY WILL
BE UNSEASONABLY WARM IN PHILADELPHIA. IT "MAY" EVEN BE A TOP
THREE WARMEST. THIS FOLLOWS ON THE HEELS OF AN UNSEASONABLY WARM
APRIL. SINCE 1872, THE COMBINATION OF BOTH WARM (TOP THIRD OF ALL
YEARS) APRILS AND MAYS HAS ONLY OCCURRED TWENTY-THREE TIMES. BUT
IT HAS OCCURRED ELEVEN TIMES SINCE 1990 AND SIX OF THE LAST SEVEN
SPRINGS.

SO WE SCOURED THE CLIMATE RECORDS TO FIND BUDDING OR IN PROGRESS
EL NINOS THAT COINCIDED WITH BOTH WARM APRILS AND MAYS LOCALLY
IN THE CPC MONITORING ERA. WE FOUND THREE PAST SUMMERS THAT
MET THE CRITERIA. THE ONE SIGN IS THAT ALL THREE ANALOG SUMMERS
WERE WETTER THAN NORMAL, HOPEFULLY KEEPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS
FROM INTENSIFYING FURTHER.

THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE PREDICTIONS
FOR THIS UPCOMING SUMMER HAS WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL
WEATHER EXPECTED IN OUR AREA. THE INTERNATIONAL MULTI MODEL
ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC PREDICTING NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.

THE ANALOGS FOR PHILADELPHIA ARE:

YEAR    JUNE AVG   JULY AVG   AUGUST AVG   SUMMER AVG   SUMMER PCPN

1969      73.4        75.1      75.2         74.6        18.30
1977      68.6        77.8      76.2         74.2        15.50
1991      75.7        79.0      79.0         77.9        12.01
AVG       72.6        77.3      76.8         75.6        15.27

1981-
2010      73.3        78.1      76.6         76.0        11.28
NORMAL

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR OUR FORECAST AREA IS FOR EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>452.

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIGI/KLEIN
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/KLEIN/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GIGI/KLEIN/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...DRAG/GAINES/GIGI/LAGUARDIA




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 251935
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
335 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY/...
ANY CU DISSIPATES BY SUNSET AS OFFSHORE RIDGE DOMINATES. MSTLY CLR.
LOWS IN THE L-M60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES THE PREVIEW OF SUMMER THRU THE PRD. MODELS
DVLP A LEE TROF EACH DAY. CONVECTION THAT DVLPS OVR THE MTS WEAKENS
AS IT MOVES E INTO THE PIEDMONT TUE AS AIRMASS OVR MOST OF THE FA
REMAINS CAPPED. KEPT 20-30 DIURNAL POP OVR THE WRN MOST CNTYS. HIGHS
IN THE M-U80S...M70S-L80S CSTL AREAS...COOLEST AT THE BEACHES.

LATEST MODELS AMPLIFY THE SFC TROF AND ARE QUICKER TO BREAK THE CAP
WHICH ALLOWS FOR A MORE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE APPRCHG MSTR FROM
THE OHIO/TN VLLYS BOTH WED AND THURS. CONTINUED SUMMER-LIKE BUT WITH
HIGHER CHCS FOR MAINLY AFTRN/EVE SHWRS/TSTRMS WEST OF THE CHES BAY
WED AND AS FAR E AS THE COASTAL AREAS THURS. GIVEN THE INCRG PW`S
AND LL MSTR...THREATS WILL BE FOR LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS AS STEERING
CRNTS REMAIN WEAK. A TAD COOLER GIVEN MORE CLOUD COVERAGE BUT WITH
MORE HUMIDITY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE L-M80S...XCPT 75-80 AT THE
BEACHES. LOWS IN THE M-U60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
EACH DAY AND TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR TSTMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NW AREAS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN DURING THE
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NW AND
SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A
FAIRLY DRY PERIOD FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
AN INCREASE OF POPS TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. POPS WILL
BE LOWER OVER FAR SE PORTIONS.

GUIDANCE HAS 85H TEMPERATURES GETTING NO HIGHER THAN 16C. CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WILL ALSO HOLD READINGS DOWN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 85 TO 90 INLAND AND UPR
70S TO LWR 80S NEAR THE COAST. IT WILL BE MODERATELY HUMID WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S. LOWS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PROVIDE STABLE
CONDITIONS AND S/SW WINDS DURING THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.

SW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH LATE AFTN WITH A FEW GUSTS
REACHING AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS BECOME LIGHTLY SOUTHERLY MONDAY
EVENING...THEN INCREASE FROM THE S/SW BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. THE SKY
WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS BY TUESDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE. THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
PIEDMONT MAY PRODUCE SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY AT RIC/SBY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE THURSDAY. OUTSIDE TSTMS...VFR CONDS SHOULD
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS STRONG HI PRES OFFSHORE WITH SLY FLOW
ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. THIS STAGNANT WX PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THRU
MID TO LATE WEEK. WINDS WILL AVG 10-15 KT...UP TO 15-20 KT OVER THE
CSTL WTRS EACH LATE AFTN/EVENG. WINDS MAY COME CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA
OVER THE BAY BUT HAVE CAPPED SUSTAINED WINDS FOR NOW AT ~15 KT.
WAVES OVER THE BAY WILL BE 1-3 FT WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS AT 2-4
FT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS OVER THE MARINE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 251851 AAC
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
251 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING WARM HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BEGINNING TUESDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC. A CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND SOUTHERN
MD. CU WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING AND MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE FURTHER OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT.
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGHLANDS LATE TONIGHT FROM
THE ACTIVITY IN THE TN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...

SOME DISSIPATING SHOWERS MAY SKIRT THE ALLEGHENY FRONT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD BY TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL INHIBIT FULL HEATING TUESDAY EVEN THOUGH 850
TEMPS ARE WARMER TUESDAY THAN MONDAY. THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL BE
UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT WITH THE RIDGE IN THE ATLANTIC AND MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO RIDE NEAR OR OVER THE HIGHLANDS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE STORM MOTION WILL BE CLOSE TO 180 SO THERE
WONT BE MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESSION. AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
SHOULD STAY DRY INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FLOW VEERS TO 220 BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN SUBURBS OF DC AND BALTIMORE BY SUNSET. SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO THE RIDGE STILL INFLUENCING
THE AREA AND CLOUD COVER. ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY SUB-SVR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

EARLY SUMMER WARMTH AND MOISTURE WL BE THE MAIN WX WORDS FOR THE
2ND HALF OF THE WK. HIGH PRES OFF THE CST AND FNTL BNDRY E OF THE
MS RVR WL KEEP THE E CST IN WARM HUMID AIR. MDLS ARE PUTTING OUT
SOME LKLY POPS. IT IS HARD TO WANT TO RAISE SUMMER CNVTCN POPS TO
THAT LVL SVRL DAYS IN ADVANCE - FOR THE TIME BEING WL KEEP POPS IN
CHC RANGE.

CLDS WL BE ON THE INCRS TUE AND RMN THRU THU. THIS WL KEEP
INSOLATION DOWN...BUT MOISTURE/SRLY FLOW WL ALSO BE KEEPING
NIGHTTIME WARMTH IN. HIGHS WL BE IN THE MU80S...LOWS IN THE MU60S
XCPT L70S IN THE CITIES.

A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY COULD STILL BE 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE A SECOND COLD FRONT...MODERATELY-STRONG...
APPROACHES THE REGION SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY COULD BE 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...REACHING THE UPPER 60S
AND NEAR 90...RESPECTIVELY.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS
IN DOING THIS. NONETHELESS...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND HIGHS SUNDAY WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE.

A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
COAST...HELPING TO COOL CONDITIONS DOWN A LITTLE. HOWEVER...
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND PASSING MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TO THE NORTH COULD BRING ANOTHER THREAT FOR RAIN
SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED. TEMPERATURES MAY BE A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. -SHRA/VCTS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS MRB/CHO.

VFR MAJORITY OF THE TIME TUE NGT-THU. RW/TRW WL BE PSBL...
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTN/ERLY EVE. SRLY WINDS WL GUST INTO THE L20S
DURG THE AFTN.

MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST
5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...

S WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL
THE WATERS. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TONIGHT ACROSS THE UPPER TIDAL
POTOMAC AND CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

SRLY FLOW WL CONT OVR THE WATERS TUE NGT-THU. SCA IN EFFECT TUE
NGT FOR THE LWR PTMC/MAIN PTN OF THE BAY. THIS WL LKLY NEED TO BE
XTND INTO WED. RW/TRW WL BE PSBL AS WELL.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ531-538-539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-
     537-540>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     535-536.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530-
     535-536.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...HAS/WOODY!/KLW



000
FXUS61 KLWX 251851 AAC
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
251 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING WARM HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BEGINNING TUESDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC. A CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND SOUTHERN
MD. CU WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING AND MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE FURTHER OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT.
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGHLANDS LATE TONIGHT FROM
THE ACTIVITY IN THE TN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...

SOME DISSIPATING SHOWERS MAY SKIRT THE ALLEGHENY FRONT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD BY TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL INHIBIT FULL HEATING TUESDAY EVEN THOUGH 850
TEMPS ARE WARMER TUESDAY THAN MONDAY. THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL BE
UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT WITH THE RIDGE IN THE ATLANTIC AND MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO RIDE NEAR OR OVER THE HIGHLANDS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE STORM MOTION WILL BE CLOSE TO 180 SO THERE
WONT BE MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESSION. AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
SHOULD STAY DRY INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FLOW VEERS TO 220 BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN SUBURBS OF DC AND BALTIMORE BY SUNSET. SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO THE RIDGE STILL INFLUENCING
THE AREA AND CLOUD COVER. ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY SUB-SVR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

EARLY SUMMER WARMTH AND MOISTURE WL BE THE MAIN WX WORDS FOR THE
2ND HALF OF THE WK. HIGH PRES OFF THE CST AND FNTL BNDRY E OF THE
MS RVR WL KEEP THE E CST IN WARM HUMID AIR. MDLS ARE PUTTING OUT
SOME LKLY POPS. IT IS HARD TO WANT TO RAISE SUMMER CNVTCN POPS TO
THAT LVL SVRL DAYS IN ADVANCE - FOR THE TIME BEING WL KEEP POPS IN
CHC RANGE.

CLDS WL BE ON THE INCRS TUE AND RMN THRU THU. THIS WL KEEP
INSOLATION DOWN...BUT MOISTURE/SRLY FLOW WL ALSO BE KEEPING
NIGHTTIME WARMTH IN. HIGHS WL BE IN THE MU80S...LOWS IN THE MU60S
XCPT L70S IN THE CITIES.

A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY COULD STILL BE 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE A SECOND COLD FRONT...MODERATELY-STRONG...
APPROACHES THE REGION SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY COULD BE 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...REACHING THE UPPER 60S
AND NEAR 90...RESPECTIVELY.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS
IN DOING THIS. NONETHELESS...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND HIGHS SUNDAY WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE.

A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
COAST...HELPING TO COOL CONDITIONS DOWN A LITTLE. HOWEVER...
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND PASSING MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TO THE NORTH COULD BRING ANOTHER THREAT FOR RAIN
SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED. TEMPERATURES MAY BE A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. -SHRA/VCTS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS MRB/CHO.

VFR MAJORITY OF THE TIME TUE NGT-THU. RW/TRW WL BE PSBL...
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTN/ERLY EVE. SRLY WINDS WL GUST INTO THE L20S
DURG THE AFTN.

MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST
5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...

S WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL
THE WATERS. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TONIGHT ACROSS THE UPPER TIDAL
POTOMAC AND CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

SRLY FLOW WL CONT OVR THE WATERS TUE NGT-THU. SCA IN EFFECT TUE
NGT FOR THE LWR PTMC/MAIN PTN OF THE BAY. THIS WL LKLY NEED TO BE
XTND INTO WED. RW/TRW WL BE PSBL AS WELL.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ531-538-539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-
     537-540>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     535-536.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530-
     535-536.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...HAS/WOODY!/KLW



000
FXUS61 KLWX 251851 AAC
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
251 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING WARM HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BEGINNING TUESDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC. A CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND SOUTHERN
MD. CU WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING AND MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE FURTHER OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT.
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGHLANDS LATE TONIGHT FROM
THE ACTIVITY IN THE TN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...

SOME DISSIPATING SHOWERS MAY SKIRT THE ALLEGHENY FRONT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD BY TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL INHIBIT FULL HEATING TUESDAY EVEN THOUGH 850
TEMPS ARE WARMER TUESDAY THAN MONDAY. THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL BE
UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT WITH THE RIDGE IN THE ATLANTIC AND MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO RIDE NEAR OR OVER THE HIGHLANDS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE STORM MOTION WILL BE CLOSE TO 180 SO THERE
WONT BE MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESSION. AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
SHOULD STAY DRY INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FLOW VEERS TO 220 BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN SUBURBS OF DC AND BALTIMORE BY SUNSET. SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO THE RIDGE STILL INFLUENCING
THE AREA AND CLOUD COVER. ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY SUB-SVR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

EARLY SUMMER WARMTH AND MOISTURE WL BE THE MAIN WX WORDS FOR THE
2ND HALF OF THE WK. HIGH PRES OFF THE CST AND FNTL BNDRY E OF THE
MS RVR WL KEEP THE E CST IN WARM HUMID AIR. MDLS ARE PUTTING OUT
SOME LKLY POPS. IT IS HARD TO WANT TO RAISE SUMMER CNVTCN POPS TO
THAT LVL SVRL DAYS IN ADVANCE - FOR THE TIME BEING WL KEEP POPS IN
CHC RANGE.

CLDS WL BE ON THE INCRS TUE AND RMN THRU THU. THIS WL KEEP
INSOLATION DOWN...BUT MOISTURE/SRLY FLOW WL ALSO BE KEEPING
NIGHTTIME WARMTH IN. HIGHS WL BE IN THE MU80S...LOWS IN THE MU60S
XCPT L70S IN THE CITIES.

A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY COULD STILL BE 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE A SECOND COLD FRONT...MODERATELY-STRONG...
APPROACHES THE REGION SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY COULD BE 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...REACHING THE UPPER 60S
AND NEAR 90...RESPECTIVELY.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS
IN DOING THIS. NONETHELESS...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND HIGHS SUNDAY WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE.

A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
COAST...HELPING TO COOL CONDITIONS DOWN A LITTLE. HOWEVER...
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND PASSING MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TO THE NORTH COULD BRING ANOTHER THREAT FOR RAIN
SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED. TEMPERATURES MAY BE A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. -SHRA/VCTS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS MRB/CHO.

VFR MAJORITY OF THE TIME TUE NGT-THU. RW/TRW WL BE PSBL...
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTN/ERLY EVE. SRLY WINDS WL GUST INTO THE L20S
DURG THE AFTN.

MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST
5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...

S WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL
THE WATERS. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TONIGHT ACROSS THE UPPER TIDAL
POTOMAC AND CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

SRLY FLOW WL CONT OVR THE WATERS TUE NGT-THU. SCA IN EFFECT TUE
NGT FOR THE LWR PTMC/MAIN PTN OF THE BAY. THIS WL LKLY NEED TO BE
XTND INTO WED. RW/TRW WL BE PSBL AS WELL.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ531-538-539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-
     537-540>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     535-536.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530-
     535-536.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...HAS/WOODY!/KLW



000
FXUS61 KLWX 251851 AAC
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
251 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING WARM HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BEGINNING TUESDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC. A CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND SOUTHERN
MD. CU WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING AND MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE FURTHER OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT.
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGHLANDS LATE TONIGHT FROM
THE ACTIVITY IN THE TN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...

SOME DISSIPATING SHOWERS MAY SKIRT THE ALLEGHENY FRONT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD BY TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL INHIBIT FULL HEATING TUESDAY EVEN THOUGH 850
TEMPS ARE WARMER TUESDAY THAN MONDAY. THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL BE
UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT WITH THE RIDGE IN THE ATLANTIC AND MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO RIDE NEAR OR OVER THE HIGHLANDS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE STORM MOTION WILL BE CLOSE TO 180 SO THERE
WONT BE MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESSION. AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
SHOULD STAY DRY INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FLOW VEERS TO 220 BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN SUBURBS OF DC AND BALTIMORE BY SUNSET. SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO THE RIDGE STILL INFLUENCING
THE AREA AND CLOUD COVER. ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY SUB-SVR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

EARLY SUMMER WARMTH AND MOISTURE WL BE THE MAIN WX WORDS FOR THE
2ND HALF OF THE WK. HIGH PRES OFF THE CST AND FNTL BNDRY E OF THE
MS RVR WL KEEP THE E CST IN WARM HUMID AIR. MDLS ARE PUTTING OUT
SOME LKLY POPS. IT IS HARD TO WANT TO RAISE SUMMER CNVTCN POPS TO
THAT LVL SVRL DAYS IN ADVANCE - FOR THE TIME BEING WL KEEP POPS IN
CHC RANGE.

CLDS WL BE ON THE INCRS TUE AND RMN THRU THU. THIS WL KEEP
INSOLATION DOWN...BUT MOISTURE/SRLY FLOW WL ALSO BE KEEPING
NIGHTTIME WARMTH IN. HIGHS WL BE IN THE MU80S...LOWS IN THE MU60S
XCPT L70S IN THE CITIES.

A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY COULD STILL BE 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE A SECOND COLD FRONT...MODERATELY-STRONG...
APPROACHES THE REGION SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY COULD BE 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...REACHING THE UPPER 60S
AND NEAR 90...RESPECTIVELY.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS
IN DOING THIS. NONETHELESS...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND HIGHS SUNDAY WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE.

A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
COAST...HELPING TO COOL CONDITIONS DOWN A LITTLE. HOWEVER...
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND PASSING MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TO THE NORTH COULD BRING ANOTHER THREAT FOR RAIN
SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED. TEMPERATURES MAY BE A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. -SHRA/VCTS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS MRB/CHO.

VFR MAJORITY OF THE TIME TUE NGT-THU. RW/TRW WL BE PSBL...
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTN/ERLY EVE. SRLY WINDS WL GUST INTO THE L20S
DURG THE AFTN.

MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST
5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...

S WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL
THE WATERS. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TONIGHT ACROSS THE UPPER TIDAL
POTOMAC AND CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

SRLY FLOW WL CONT OVR THE WATERS TUE NGT-THU. SCA IN EFFECT TUE
NGT FOR THE LWR PTMC/MAIN PTN OF THE BAY. THIS WL LKLY NEED TO BE
XTND INTO WED. RW/TRW WL BE PSBL AS WELL.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ531-538-539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-
     537-540>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     535-536.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530-
     535-536.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...HAS/WOODY!/KLW



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251845
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
245 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY HAVE RETURNED TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION...BUT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE COMING
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INTENSIFYING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARMTH
AND MOISTURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. CHANGES
TO AN ALREADY WARM TEMP FORECAST WERE NOT APPRECIABLE.

ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS INCLUDED AN UPWARD BUMP FOR SCT...I.E. CHANCE
NUMBERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PERIMETER OF THE PBZ COUNTY WARNING
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...AS WELL AS IN THE
PREDAWN HOURS OF TUESDAY AS NAM AND GFS PERSIST IN PROGRESSING
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE REGION. IN GENERAL...THESE HAVE BEEN
WEATHER LABELED AS SCATTERED SHOWERS GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF INSTABILITY
ON VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDINGS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING MID LEVEL
WARMTH. AN EXCEPTION WAS MADE FOR THE ZANESVILLE AND NEW
PHILADELPHIA CORRIDOR WHERE WARMTH AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS MAY
JUST SUPPORT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGTH THUNDERSTORM CHANCE
EARLY THIS EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE FUNNEL OF DEEP MOISTURE
OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION...AT LEAST UNTIL THE ADVANCING MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSION SHUNTS THE PLUME EASTWARD BY THURSDAY AS
PER THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS.

CHANCE...TO LIKELY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL THUS BE MAINTAINED
FOR THE PERIOD. THE BEST OVERALL POPS AT MOMENT ARE STILL PROGGED
FOR WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH TODAYS MODEL RUNS ARE FASTER IN PUSHING
THE PARENT MID/UPR LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SUSTAINED MOISTURE TAP
EASTWARD...SO THOSE LIKELY NUMBERS WERE TRENDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
AS WELL.

THE SHORT TERM SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS TO BE COMPROMISED BY
WARM MID LEVELS AND A MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILE...BUT WARM
RAIN PROCESSES AND TRAINING MAY SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
UNTIL MOISTURE AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH WANES LATER ON WEDNESDAY.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE SEASONABLY WARM TEMP PROGNOSIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...AND PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEK AS MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK SPLIT FLOW REGIME
CONVERGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO REGION. THE SURFACE
FRONT IS PROJECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD UNTIL REDEVELOPING NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO GREAT PLAINS TROUGHING EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

GIVEN MODEL MAGNITUDE...POSITIONING...AND TIMING DISPUTES...PERSISTENCE
WILL RULE THE LONG TERM FORECAST STRATEGY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENLY VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE ERODING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE REGION SUPPRESSES CONVECTION. HOWEVER...ISOLATED...TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL INCREASE LOCAL RESTRICTION POTENTIAL AND
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY SPAWN A STRATUS/STRATOCU LAYER EARLY ON
TUESDAY. TAFS THUS INCLUDE A VICINITY SHOWER MENTION AND A LATE
PERIOD...LOW END VFR CLOUD BASE FORECAST AS A LOW CONFIDENCE
HEDGE.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251845
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
245 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY HAVE RETURNED TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION...BUT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE COMING
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INTENSIFYING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARMTH
AND MOISTURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. CHANGES
TO AN ALREADY WARM TEMP FORECAST WERE NOT APPRECIABLE.

ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS INCLUDED AN UPWARD BUMP FOR SCT...I.E. CHANCE
NUMBERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PERIMETER OF THE PBZ COUNTY WARNING
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...AS WELL AS IN THE
PREDAWN HOURS OF TUESDAY AS NAM AND GFS PERSIST IN PROGRESSING
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE REGION. IN GENERAL...THESE HAVE BEEN
WEATHER LABELED AS SCATTERED SHOWERS GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF INSTABILITY
ON VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDINGS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING MID LEVEL
WARMTH. AN EXCEPTION WAS MADE FOR THE ZANESVILLE AND NEW
PHILADELPHIA CORRIDOR WHERE WARMTH AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS MAY
JUST SUPPORT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGTH THUNDERSTORM CHANCE
EARLY THIS EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE FUNNEL OF DEEP MOISTURE
OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION...AT LEAST UNTIL THE ADVANCING MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSION SHUNTS THE PLUME EASTWARD BY THURSDAY AS
PER THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS.

CHANCE...TO LIKELY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL THUS BE MAINTAINED
FOR THE PERIOD. THE BEST OVERALL POPS AT MOMENT ARE STILL PROGGED
FOR WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH TODAYS MODEL RUNS ARE FASTER IN PUSHING
THE PARENT MID/UPR LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SUSTAINED MOISTURE TAP
EASTWARD...SO THOSE LIKELY NUMBERS WERE TRENDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
AS WELL.

THE SHORT TERM SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS TO BE COMPROMISED BY
WARM MID LEVELS AND A MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILE...BUT WARM
RAIN PROCESSES AND TRAINING MAY SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
UNTIL MOISTURE AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH WANES LATER ON WEDNESDAY.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE SEASONABLY WARM TEMP PROGNOSIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...AND PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEK AS MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK SPLIT FLOW REGIME
CONVERGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO REGION. THE SURFACE
FRONT IS PROJECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD UNTIL REDEVELOPING NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO GREAT PLAINS TROUGHING EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

GIVEN MODEL MAGNITUDE...POSITIONING...AND TIMING DISPUTES...PERSISTENCE
WILL RULE THE LONG TERM FORECAST STRATEGY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENLY VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE ERODING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE REGION SUPPRESSES CONVECTION. HOWEVER...ISOLATED...TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL INCREASE LOCAL RESTRICTION POTENTIAL AND
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY SPAWN A STRATUS/STRATOCU LAYER EARLY ON
TUESDAY. TAFS THUS INCLUDE A VICINITY SHOWER MENTION AND A LATE
PERIOD...LOW END VFR CLOUD BASE FORECAST AS A LOW CONFIDENCE
HEDGE.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 251452
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1052 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS REVEALING ~1028 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE ALIGNED
SW TO NE FROM THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TO OFF THE DELMARVA COAST.
ALOFT, UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE SE COAST.

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY. UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED
OFF THE SE COAST, BUT WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE, SFC
HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. PW
VALUES BEGIN TO CREEP ABOVE CLIMO NORMAL TODAY ON S-SE WIND
(BREEZY THIS AFTN DURING PEAK MIXING). HOWEVER, SUBSIDENCE BENEATH
THE RIDGE WILL BRING A DRY/WARM MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE AREA,
WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW TO SCT AFTN CU. THICKNESS TOOLS
REFLECTING A MODEST BUMP UPWARD IN TEMPS COMPARED TO
SUNDAY...ABOUT A CATEGORY HIGHER ON AVG COMPARED TO THOSE OF
YESTERDAY. THIS YIELDS HIGHS IN THE 75 TO 80 ALONG THE
COAST...LOWER/MID 80S NORTH...MID 80S SOUTH. CLEAR AND MILD
TONIGHT W/EARLY MORNING IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE WILL PROVIDE SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS THRU
TUE THROUGH MIDWEEK. UPPER RIDGE SLIDING OFFSHORE WILL ALLOW FOR
AN INCREMENTAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY TUE/WED. A WEAK LEE TROF
DEVELOPS LATE TUE...AND SOME SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE WEST OF THE
MTNS. HOWEVER, AIRMASS REMAINS CAPPED WITH CONVECTION NOT EXPECTED
TO HOLD TOGETHER FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL AREA. DID ADD A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THE FAR WESTERN TIER OF THE AREA MAINLY ALONG AND NW OF
HWY 15...BUT OTHERWISE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST.

UPPER TROUGH EJECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON WED/THU,
DAMPENING THE EAST COAST UPPER RIDGE SLIGHTLY. RESULTANT PRESSURE
FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL SHARPEN LEE TROF A BIT
FURTHER FOR WED AFTN. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED WITH INCREASING/ADVANCING
MSTR FROM THE MID-SOUTH WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER LLVL CONVERGENCE AND
AT LEAST SOME FORCING FOR SOME ISO TO WIDELY SCT MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION. HAVE ALIGNED 20-30 POP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT ON
WED, MAINLY ALONG/W OF I-95. CHC POP ACROSS THIS SAME AREA AGAIN ON
THU...WITH A SLIGHT CHC POP INSTALLED ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AS
ADDITIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFT NE FROM THE OH/TN VLYS. SEVERE
WX NOT EXPECTED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH SHEAR PROFILES
REMAINING RATHER WEAK. LIGHT STEERING FLOW WOULD PORTEND TO A
CONCERN FOR LOCAL HEAVY RAIN IN ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ON
WED/THU...BUT OVERALL, EXPECT AREAL COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS TO BE
RATHER LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WHILE INCREASING RH WILL MAKE IT INCREASINGLY "SUMMER-LIKE" BY THE
DAY, LOOK FOR HIGHS EACH DAY IN M-U80S W OF THE CHES BAY...M70S-
L80S ALONG THE COAST...COOLEST AT THE BEACHES. EARLY MORNING LOWS
IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EACH
DAY AND TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR /TSTMS ACROSS NW AREAS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP FRONTS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. LEESIDE
TROUGH MAY TRIGGER AFTER THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. GFS/EURO BOTH
INDICATE DRYING FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH LESS COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION. RIDGING WEAKENS AND THE COLD FRONT TO THE NW BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE AREA. TSTM CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES INLAND RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPR 80S THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY INCREASING TO AROUND 90 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGHS RANGE FROM
80 TO 85 NEAR THE COAST. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 65 TO 70.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PROVIDE STABLE
CONDITIONS AND S/SW WINDS DURING THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.

SW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH LATE AFTN WITH A FEW GUSTS
REACHING AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS BECOME LIGHTLY SOUTHERLY MONDAY
EVENING...THEN INCREASE FROM THE S/SW BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. THE SKY
WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS BY TUESDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE. THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
PIEDMONT MAY PRODUCE SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY AT RIC/SBY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE THURSDAY. OUTSIDE TSTMS...VFR CONDS SHOULD
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHILE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SE
AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
THROUGH TUE. WINDS WILL VARY BTWN A SSE-SSW DIRECTION...BECOMING
BREEZY AOB 15KT EACH AFTN/EARLY EVENING DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SUB-SCA...HOWEVER A FEW GUSTS
COULD REACH UP TO 20KT AT TIMES ON THE COASTAL WATERS/CHES
BAY/SOUND. THE MID/UPPER RIDGING BREAKS DOWN TUE NIGHT DUE TO A
REMNANT TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE WRN APPALACHIANS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL INTRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING WED AFTN/EVENING AND WILL ALLOW
PERIODS OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. WAVES/SEAS WILL AVERAGE 1-3FT TODAY THROUGH FRI.
HOWEVER...SEAS MAY REACH UP TO 4FT BTWN 10-20NM IN THE NRN
COASTAL WATERS (NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT) FROM TUE NIGHT
THROUGH THU/THU NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...BMD




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 251452
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1052 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS REVEALING ~1028 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE ALIGNED
SW TO NE FROM THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TO OFF THE DELMARVA COAST.
ALOFT, UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE SE COAST.

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY. UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED
OFF THE SE COAST, BUT WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE, SFC
HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. PW
VALUES BEGIN TO CREEP ABOVE CLIMO NORMAL TODAY ON S-SE WIND
(BREEZY THIS AFTN DURING PEAK MIXING). HOWEVER, SUBSIDENCE BENEATH
THE RIDGE WILL BRING A DRY/WARM MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE AREA,
WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW TO SCT AFTN CU. THICKNESS TOOLS
REFLECTING A MODEST BUMP UPWARD IN TEMPS COMPARED TO
SUNDAY...ABOUT A CATEGORY HIGHER ON AVG COMPARED TO THOSE OF
YESTERDAY. THIS YIELDS HIGHS IN THE 75 TO 80 ALONG THE
COAST...LOWER/MID 80S NORTH...MID 80S SOUTH. CLEAR AND MILD
TONIGHT W/EARLY MORNING IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE WILL PROVIDE SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS THRU
TUE THROUGH MIDWEEK. UPPER RIDGE SLIDING OFFSHORE WILL ALLOW FOR
AN INCREMENTAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY TUE/WED. A WEAK LEE TROF
DEVELOPS LATE TUE...AND SOME SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE WEST OF THE
MTNS. HOWEVER, AIRMASS REMAINS CAPPED WITH CONVECTION NOT EXPECTED
TO HOLD TOGETHER FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL AREA. DID ADD A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THE FAR WESTERN TIER OF THE AREA MAINLY ALONG AND NW OF
HWY 15...BUT OTHERWISE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST.

UPPER TROUGH EJECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON WED/THU,
DAMPENING THE EAST COAST UPPER RIDGE SLIGHTLY. RESULTANT PRESSURE
FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL SHARPEN LEE TROF A BIT
FURTHER FOR WED AFTN. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED WITH INCREASING/ADVANCING
MSTR FROM THE MID-SOUTH WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER LLVL CONVERGENCE AND
AT LEAST SOME FORCING FOR SOME ISO TO WIDELY SCT MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION. HAVE ALIGNED 20-30 POP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT ON
WED, MAINLY ALONG/W OF I-95. CHC POP ACROSS THIS SAME AREA AGAIN ON
THU...WITH A SLIGHT CHC POP INSTALLED ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AS
ADDITIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFT NE FROM THE OH/TN VLYS. SEVERE
WX NOT EXPECTED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH SHEAR PROFILES
REMAINING RATHER WEAK. LIGHT STEERING FLOW WOULD PORTEND TO A
CONCERN FOR LOCAL HEAVY RAIN IN ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ON
WED/THU...BUT OVERALL, EXPECT AREAL COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS TO BE
RATHER LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WHILE INCREASING RH WILL MAKE IT INCREASINGLY "SUMMER-LIKE" BY THE
DAY, LOOK FOR HIGHS EACH DAY IN M-U80S W OF THE CHES BAY...M70S-
L80S ALONG THE COAST...COOLEST AT THE BEACHES. EARLY MORNING LOWS
IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EACH
DAY AND TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR /TSTMS ACROSS NW AREAS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP FRONTS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. LEESIDE
TROUGH MAY TRIGGER AFTER THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. GFS/EURO BOTH
INDICATE DRYING FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH LESS COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION. RIDGING WEAKENS AND THE COLD FRONT TO THE NW BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE AREA. TSTM CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES INLAND RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPR 80S THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY INCREASING TO AROUND 90 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGHS RANGE FROM
80 TO 85 NEAR THE COAST. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 65 TO 70.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PROVIDE STABLE
CONDITIONS AND S/SW WINDS DURING THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.

SW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH LATE AFTN WITH A FEW GUSTS
REACHING AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS BECOME LIGHTLY SOUTHERLY MONDAY
EVENING...THEN INCREASE FROM THE S/SW BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. THE SKY
WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS BY TUESDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE. THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
PIEDMONT MAY PRODUCE SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY AT RIC/SBY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE THURSDAY. OUTSIDE TSTMS...VFR CONDS SHOULD
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHILE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SE
AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
THROUGH TUE. WINDS WILL VARY BTWN A SSE-SSW DIRECTION...BECOMING
BREEZY AOB 15KT EACH AFTN/EARLY EVENING DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SUB-SCA...HOWEVER A FEW GUSTS
COULD REACH UP TO 20KT AT TIMES ON THE COASTAL WATERS/CHES
BAY/SOUND. THE MID/UPPER RIDGING BREAKS DOWN TUE NIGHT DUE TO A
REMNANT TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE WRN APPALACHIANS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL INTRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING WED AFTN/EVENING AND WILL ALLOW
PERIODS OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. WAVES/SEAS WILL AVERAGE 1-3FT TODAY THROUGH FRI.
HOWEVER...SEAS MAY REACH UP TO 4FT BTWN 10-20NM IN THE NRN
COASTAL WATERS (NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT) FROM TUE NIGHT
THROUGH THU/THU NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...BMD



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251330
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
930 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
DRAWS TO A CLOSE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CHANGES FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD INCLUDED AN UPWARD POP BUMP...MAINLY
FOR THE ZANESVILLE AND SURROUNDING AREA...AS HRRR HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT IN MAINTAINING PRECIP WITH THE ADVANCING...ALBIET WEAK
SHORTWAVE EVIDENT ON SATELLITE PICS. FOR NOW...HAVE LABELED AS
SHOWERS GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF INSTABILITY ON VARIOUS MODEL
SOUNDINGS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING MID LEVEL WARMTH.

OTHERWISE...INTENSIFYING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT WARMTH AND MOISTURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. CHANGES TO AN ALREADY WARM TEMP FORECAST ARE
UNMENTIONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE FUNNEL OF DEEP
MOISTURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION...AT LEAST UNTIL MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSION SHUNTS THE PLUME EASTWARD LATER ON
THURSDAY AS PER THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS.

HIGH END CHANCE...TO LIKELY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL THUS BE
MAINTAINED FOR THE PERIOD. SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS TO BE
COMPROMISED BY WARM MID LEVELS AND A MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PROFILE...BUT WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND TRAINING MAY SUPPORT LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE SEASONABLY WARM TEMP
PROGNOSIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...AND PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEK AS MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK SPLIT FLOW REGIME
CONVERGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO REGION. THE SURFACE
FRONT IS PROJECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD UNTIL REDEVELOPING NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO GREAT PLAINS TROUGHING EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

GIVEN MODEL MAGNITUDE...POSITIONING...AND TIMING DISPUTES...PERSISTENCE
WILL RULE THE LONG TERM FORECAST STRATEGY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD AND SUPPORT AN IMPROVING SOUTH...TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WIND TODAY.

ISOLATED...TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE LOCAL RESTRICTION POTENTIAL INTO TUESDAY...THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR WHICH WILL BE AT ZZV AND FKL.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251330
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
930 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
DRAWS TO A CLOSE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CHANGES FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD INCLUDED AN UPWARD POP BUMP...MAINLY
FOR THE ZANESVILLE AND SURROUNDING AREA...AS HRRR HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT IN MAINTAINING PRECIP WITH THE ADVANCING...ALBIET WEAK
SHORTWAVE EVIDENT ON SATELLITE PICS. FOR NOW...HAVE LABELED AS
SHOWERS GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF INSTABILITY ON VARIOUS MODEL
SOUNDINGS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING MID LEVEL WARMTH.

OTHERWISE...INTENSIFYING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT WARMTH AND MOISTURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. CHANGES TO AN ALREADY WARM TEMP FORECAST ARE
UNMENTIONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE FUNNEL OF DEEP
MOISTURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION...AT LEAST UNTIL MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSION SHUNTS THE PLUME EASTWARD LATER ON
THURSDAY AS PER THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS.

HIGH END CHANCE...TO LIKELY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL THUS BE
MAINTAINED FOR THE PERIOD. SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS TO BE
COMPROMISED BY WARM MID LEVELS AND A MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PROFILE...BUT WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND TRAINING MAY SUPPORT LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE SEASONABLY WARM TEMP
PROGNOSIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...AND PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEK AS MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK SPLIT FLOW REGIME
CONVERGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO REGION. THE SURFACE
FRONT IS PROJECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD UNTIL REDEVELOPING NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO GREAT PLAINS TROUGHING EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

GIVEN MODEL MAGNITUDE...POSITIONING...AND TIMING DISPUTES...PERSISTENCE
WILL RULE THE LONG TERM FORECAST STRATEGY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD AND SUPPORT AN IMPROVING SOUTH...TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WIND TODAY.

ISOLATED...TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE LOCAL RESTRICTION POTENTIAL INTO TUESDAY...THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR WHICH WILL BE AT ZZV AND FKL.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15



000
FXUS61 KLWX 251318
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
918 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE
THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. TEMPS ALREADY
AROUND 70 DEGREES THIS MEMORIAL DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH TONIGHT
AND AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL
EXTEND NORTHWEST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THIS TIME. THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ALONG WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN
WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY. LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S
ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AROUND THE HIGH CENTERED TO
OUR EAST. THEREFORE...WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL START TO SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT A COUPLE SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS EXTREME WESTERN AREAS WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR EAST WHILE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE
UPPER-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL USHER IN MORE MOISTURE DURING
THIS TIME. MAX TEMPS TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 70S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OTHER
LOCATIONS. DID TWEAK TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES FROM CONTINUITY DUE TO
A BKN/OVC DECK OF HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED.

THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS DURING PEAK HEATING. ASIDE FROM WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY...THERE WILL NOT BE A STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM TO
ENHANCE CONVECTION COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED ACROSS
MOST AREAS. SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER SO THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOW. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT DUE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY
SWINGING THROUGH AND DEEP MOISTURE. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 60S IN PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO THE MID 70S IN
DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE. IT WILL ALSO FEEL QUITE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF UNSETTLED WX EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED WITH
MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES NEARING AND STALLING CLOSE TO THE REGION.
WHILE CONFIDENCE EXIST THAT EACH DAY WILL BRING A CHC FOR TSTM
ACTIVITY...THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON THE PLACEMENT
OF THE BOUNDARIES AND AS SUCH TRYING TO FINE TUNE WHERE AND WHEN
THE PCPN OCCURS STILL HAS SOME UNCERTAINTY. AS SUCH...HAVE CAPPED
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH END CHC. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
WILL PERSIST THRU THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AND LOWS REACHING OVER
10 DEGREES ABV NORMAL EACH DAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE
SECTION FOR RECORD INFORMATION FOR THE COMING WEEK.

SFC LOW PUSHING NORTH THRU THE GREAT LAKES WED MORNING WILL DRAG ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO JUST WEST OF THE REGION. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
PERSISTING OFFSHORE WILL COUNTER THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WHILE
RIDGING ALOFT NUDGES THE APPROACHING UPPER LVL TROUGH OFF WELL NORTH
OF THE REGION. GENERALLY EXPECTING WITH THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP FOR THE
FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...THEN STALLING/WEAKENING
WED INTO THURS. THIS STALLED BOUNDARY WILL BE THE TRIGGERING
MECHANISM FOR SCT-NUM TSTM ACTIVITY WED AFTN-FRI. GOOD MOISTURE
ADVECTION ON THE SWLY FLOW COMBINING WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S WILL
ENABLE DECENT INSTABILITY TO FORM BY WED AFTN. SOME QUESTION AS TO
HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WITH MORNING CLOUD COVER NEEDING TO SCATTER TO
ENABLE THE BEST DIURNAL HEATING. SHEAR IS MORE ON THE WEAKER SIDE
WITH MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AROUND 20 KTS. THINKING MOST LIKELY
WILL END UP SEEING A STRONG SHEAR/WEAKER INSTABILITY WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND STRONGER INSTABILITY/WEAKER SHEAR EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE WITH THE BETTER CHC OF HAVING BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. MODELS ARE
ALREADY HINTING AT SOME SORT OF LINEAR FORMATION...PSBL OVER THE OH
RIVER VALLEY...CARRYING THEN SOUTH THRU CENTRAL MD AND INTO MD. MANY
SVR PARAMETERS ON THE WEAKER SIDE...BUT ITS DEFINITELY NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION FOR GUSTY TO STRONGER WINDS TO FORM WITH SOME OF THE
STORMS LATE WED AFTN/DURING THE EVENING. WITH PWATS NEAR 1.8
INCHES...ANY STORM COULD ALSO RESULT IN BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...ESP
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. ISO-SCT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN PSBL WED NIGHT.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS FURTHER INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ON
THURS...RESULTING IN YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN AREAS WITH THE AXIS OF THE HIGHER
INSTABILITY ALIGNING FROM DC TO BALTIMORE. DESPITE THE HIGHER
INSTABILITY VALUES...SHEAR JUST CONTINUES TO LACK THOUGH THERE IS
MORE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AS WINDS BACK TO THE SE. WOULD EXPECT TO SEE
TSTMS SCT IN NATURE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THOUGH WITH MUCH LESS OF A
SVR POTENTIAL THAN THE PREVIOUS DAYS. MUCH OF THE SAME STORY FOR
FRIDAY.

ANOTHER LOW TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRAG ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SAT...WITH SOME QUESTION
THEN HOW LONG THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED IN THE VICINITY. THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE TWO VERY DIFFERENT SLNS IN THE HANDLING OF THE RIDGE
ALOFT AND THUS THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT. WITH THE AREA STILL ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE OFFSHORE HIGH HOWEVER...EXPECT PLENTY OF
WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ON THE SWLY FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND TO
KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS...ESP EACH AFTN.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED DUE TO A LACK OF A STRONG
LIFTING MECHANISM. THEREFORE...MUCH OF THE TIME MAY END UP
PRECIPITATION FREE. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
LOW...BUT BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND SUBVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

VARYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR OR LOWER PSBL WITH ANY SHOWER/TSTM. STRONGER TSTMS PSBL WED
AFTN...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. WED COULD ALSO SEE OCNL
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS OUTSIDE OF ANY PCPN...WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS
OR LESS OUTSIDE OF PCPN THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. THE
GRADIENT WILL BE STRONGEST TODAY SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE MARYLAND
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED FARTHER
NORTH TUESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO A
SLIGHTLY WEAKER GRADIENT AND RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS. SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANNEL UP THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC
RIVER TUESDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THESE AREAS.

INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED AT BEST SINCE THERE WILL NOT BE A STRONG
LIFTING MECHANISM. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
LOW...BUT BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.

SCA CONDITIONS PSBL ON WED...ESP ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SLY CHANNELING. AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SLACKENS BY WED NIGHT...EXPECTING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN
THURS AND FRI FOR MOST OF THE ZONES. MID CHESAPEAKE BAY COULD SEE
GUSTS TO 20 KTS EACH AFTN THRU FRI.

A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT YET AGAIN WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON
SAT WILL INCREASE WINDS...WITH PSBL SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS SAT-
SAT NIGHT.

OUTSIDE OF THE SYNOPTIC FLOW...EACH DAY WILL BRING A CHC FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS...WHICH COULD ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNUSUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THIS EARLY IN THE YEAR ARE
FORECAST DURING MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. BELOW IS A LIST OF
RECORD DAILY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. CURRENT
FEELING IS THAT HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PREVENT RECORD-
BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK...BUT SHOULD WE GET MORE
SUNSHINE THEN EXPECTED SOME OF THESE RECORDS COULD BE CHALLENGED.
SOME OF THE RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS COULD BE CHALLENGED.

     ....RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES FOR DCA........
DATE...RECORD HIGH...........RECORD HIGH MIN...
5/25...94 (1880).............71 (2012).........
5/26...96 (1880).............74 (1991).........
5/27...95 (1965/1914/1880)...75 (1991).........
5/28...97 (1941).............75 (1991).........
5/29...97 (1991/1969)........74 (1991).........
5/30...98 (1991).............74 (1991).........

     ....RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES FOR BWI........
DATE...RECORD HIGH...........RECORD HIGH MIN...
5/25...94 (1991).............70 (1936).........
5/26...94 (1914).............74 (1880).........
5/27...95 (1965/1941)........75 (1880).........
5/28...97 (1941).............78 (1941).........
5/29...97 (1969).............71 (1908).........
5/30...98* (2011/1991).......72 (1895).........
*ALSO HIGHEST OBSERVED MAY MONTHLY TEMPERATURE

     ....RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES FOR IAD........
DATE...RECORD HIGH...........RECORD HIGH MIN...
5/25...92 (1991).............67 (2004).........
5/26...92 (2007).............70 (1991).........
5/27...92 (2010/1965)........69 (2008/1991)....
5/28...90 (2012/1991)........70 (1991).........
5/29...97* (1969)............69 (2012).........
5/30...95 (2006/1991/1987)...70 (2011).........
*ALSO HIGHEST OBSERVED MAY MONTHLY TEMPERATURE

BELOW IS THE LONGEST STRETCH OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR ABOVE 90 F
DURING THE MONTH OF MAY.

DCA...7 DAYS (05/25-05/31/1991)
BWI...7 DAYS (05/25-05/31/1991)
IAD...7 DAYS (05/25-05/31/1991)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ531-538-539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530-535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...BJL/SEARS
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KLWX 251318
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
918 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE
THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. TEMPS ALREADY
AROUND 70 DEGREES THIS MEMORIAL DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH TONIGHT
AND AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL
EXTEND NORTHWEST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THIS TIME. THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ALONG WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN
WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY. LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S
ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AROUND THE HIGH CENTERED TO
OUR EAST. THEREFORE...WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL START TO SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT A COUPLE SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS EXTREME WESTERN AREAS WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR EAST WHILE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE
UPPER-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL USHER IN MORE MOISTURE DURING
THIS TIME. MAX TEMPS TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 70S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OTHER
LOCATIONS. DID TWEAK TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES FROM CONTINUITY DUE TO
A BKN/OVC DECK OF HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED.

THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS DURING PEAK HEATING. ASIDE FROM WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY...THERE WILL NOT BE A STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM TO
ENHANCE CONVECTION COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED ACROSS
MOST AREAS. SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER SO THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOW. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT DUE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY
SWINGING THROUGH AND DEEP MOISTURE. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 60S IN PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO THE MID 70S IN
DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE. IT WILL ALSO FEEL QUITE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF UNSETTLED WX EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED WITH
MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES NEARING AND STALLING CLOSE TO THE REGION.
WHILE CONFIDENCE EXIST THAT EACH DAY WILL BRING A CHC FOR TSTM
ACTIVITY...THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON THE PLACEMENT
OF THE BOUNDARIES AND AS SUCH TRYING TO FINE TUNE WHERE AND WHEN
THE PCPN OCCURS STILL HAS SOME UNCERTAINTY. AS SUCH...HAVE CAPPED
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH END CHC. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
WILL PERSIST THRU THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AND LOWS REACHING OVER
10 DEGREES ABV NORMAL EACH DAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE
SECTION FOR RECORD INFORMATION FOR THE COMING WEEK.

SFC LOW PUSHING NORTH THRU THE GREAT LAKES WED MORNING WILL DRAG ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO JUST WEST OF THE REGION. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
PERSISTING OFFSHORE WILL COUNTER THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WHILE
RIDGING ALOFT NUDGES THE APPROACHING UPPER LVL TROUGH OFF WELL NORTH
OF THE REGION. GENERALLY EXPECTING WITH THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP FOR THE
FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...THEN STALLING/WEAKENING
WED INTO THURS. THIS STALLED BOUNDARY WILL BE THE TRIGGERING
MECHANISM FOR SCT-NUM TSTM ACTIVITY WED AFTN-FRI. GOOD MOISTURE
ADVECTION ON THE SWLY FLOW COMBINING WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S WILL
ENABLE DECENT INSTABILITY TO FORM BY WED AFTN. SOME QUESTION AS TO
HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WITH MORNING CLOUD COVER NEEDING TO SCATTER TO
ENABLE THE BEST DIURNAL HEATING. SHEAR IS MORE ON THE WEAKER SIDE
WITH MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AROUND 20 KTS. THINKING MOST LIKELY
WILL END UP SEEING A STRONG SHEAR/WEAKER INSTABILITY WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND STRONGER INSTABILITY/WEAKER SHEAR EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE WITH THE BETTER CHC OF HAVING BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. MODELS ARE
ALREADY HINTING AT SOME SORT OF LINEAR FORMATION...PSBL OVER THE OH
RIVER VALLEY...CARRYING THEN SOUTH THRU CENTRAL MD AND INTO MD. MANY
SVR PARAMETERS ON THE WEAKER SIDE...BUT ITS DEFINITELY NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION FOR GUSTY TO STRONGER WINDS TO FORM WITH SOME OF THE
STORMS LATE WED AFTN/DURING THE EVENING. WITH PWATS NEAR 1.8
INCHES...ANY STORM COULD ALSO RESULT IN BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...ESP
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. ISO-SCT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN PSBL WED NIGHT.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS FURTHER INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ON
THURS...RESULTING IN YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN AREAS WITH THE AXIS OF THE HIGHER
INSTABILITY ALIGNING FROM DC TO BALTIMORE. DESPITE THE HIGHER
INSTABILITY VALUES...SHEAR JUST CONTINUES TO LACK THOUGH THERE IS
MORE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AS WINDS BACK TO THE SE. WOULD EXPECT TO SEE
TSTMS SCT IN NATURE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THOUGH WITH MUCH LESS OF A
SVR POTENTIAL THAN THE PREVIOUS DAYS. MUCH OF THE SAME STORY FOR
FRIDAY.

ANOTHER LOW TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRAG ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SAT...WITH SOME QUESTION
THEN HOW LONG THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED IN THE VICINITY. THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE TWO VERY DIFFERENT SLNS IN THE HANDLING OF THE RIDGE
ALOFT AND THUS THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT. WITH THE AREA STILL ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE OFFSHORE HIGH HOWEVER...EXPECT PLENTY OF
WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ON THE SWLY FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND TO
KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS...ESP EACH AFTN.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED DUE TO A LACK OF A STRONG
LIFTING MECHANISM. THEREFORE...MUCH OF THE TIME MAY END UP
PRECIPITATION FREE. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
LOW...BUT BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND SUBVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

VARYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR OR LOWER PSBL WITH ANY SHOWER/TSTM. STRONGER TSTMS PSBL WED
AFTN...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. WED COULD ALSO SEE OCNL
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS OUTSIDE OF ANY PCPN...WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS
OR LESS OUTSIDE OF PCPN THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. THE
GRADIENT WILL BE STRONGEST TODAY SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE MARYLAND
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED FARTHER
NORTH TUESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO A
SLIGHTLY WEAKER GRADIENT AND RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS. SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANNEL UP THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC
RIVER TUESDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THESE AREAS.

INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED AT BEST SINCE THERE WILL NOT BE A STRONG
LIFTING MECHANISM. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
LOW...BUT BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.

SCA CONDITIONS PSBL ON WED...ESP ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SLY CHANNELING. AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SLACKENS BY WED NIGHT...EXPECTING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN
THURS AND FRI FOR MOST OF THE ZONES. MID CHESAPEAKE BAY COULD SEE
GUSTS TO 20 KTS EACH AFTN THRU FRI.

A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT YET AGAIN WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON
SAT WILL INCREASE WINDS...WITH PSBL SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS SAT-
SAT NIGHT.

OUTSIDE OF THE SYNOPTIC FLOW...EACH DAY WILL BRING A CHC FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS...WHICH COULD ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNUSUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THIS EARLY IN THE YEAR ARE
FORECAST DURING MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. BELOW IS A LIST OF
RECORD DAILY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. CURRENT
FEELING IS THAT HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PREVENT RECORD-
BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK...BUT SHOULD WE GET MORE
SUNSHINE THEN EXPECTED SOME OF THESE RECORDS COULD BE CHALLENGED.
SOME OF THE RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS COULD BE CHALLENGED.

     ....RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES FOR DCA........
DATE...RECORD HIGH...........RECORD HIGH MIN...
5/25...94 (1880).............71 (2012).........
5/26...96 (1880).............74 (1991).........
5/27...95 (1965/1914/1880)...75 (1991).........
5/28...97 (1941).............75 (1991).........
5/29...97 (1991/1969)........74 (1991).........
5/30...98 (1991).............74 (1991).........

     ....RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES FOR BWI........
DATE...RECORD HIGH...........RECORD HIGH MIN...
5/25...94 (1991).............70 (1936).........
5/26...94 (1914).............74 (1880).........
5/27...95 (1965/1941)........75 (1880).........
5/28...97 (1941).............78 (1941).........
5/29...97 (1969).............71 (1908).........
5/30...98* (2011/1991).......72 (1895).........
*ALSO HIGHEST OBSERVED MAY MONTHLY TEMPERATURE

     ....RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES FOR IAD........
DATE...RECORD HIGH...........RECORD HIGH MIN...
5/25...92 (1991).............67 (2004).........
5/26...92 (2007).............70 (1991).........
5/27...92 (2010/1965)........69 (2008/1991)....
5/28...90 (2012/1991)........70 (1991).........
5/29...97* (1969)............69 (2012).........
5/30...95 (2006/1991/1987)...70 (2011).........
*ALSO HIGHEST OBSERVED MAY MONTHLY TEMPERATURE

BELOW IS THE LONGEST STRETCH OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR ABOVE 90 F
DURING THE MONTH OF MAY.

DCA...7 DAYS (05/25-05/31/1991)
BWI...7 DAYS (05/25-05/31/1991)
IAD...7 DAYS (05/25-05/31/1991)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ531-538-539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530-535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...BJL/SEARS
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 251315
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
915 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST THIS WEEK. A
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR MID-ATLANTIC REGION
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH A WEAK WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE TO OUR
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THE ENERGY AND LIFT
WITH THE FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. EVEN WITH MOISTURE
STREAMING INTO THE REGION THE LACK OF LIFT AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT,
AS RIDGING REMAINS ENTRENCHED TO OUR SOUTHEAST, WILL KEEP OUR
REGION DRY...AGAIN.

WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX UPWARDS OF 850MB, IF NOT HIGHER, THIS
AFTERNOON KEEPING OUR DEWPOINTS IN CHECK WITH WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS
UPWARDS OF 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. TODAYS STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW, BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND BEING FULLY WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR A VERY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED. EVEN THOUGH 850MB TEMPERATURES
MAY NOT COMPLETELY SUPPORT UPPER-80S FOR HIGHS TODAY, GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED AND THE VERY DRY GROUND IN PLACE, WE
SHOULD HAVE SOME HOME COOKING AND ADD A COUPLE DEGREES ON THE STAT
GUIDANCE.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE MRNG UPDATE ON THIS QUIET MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF NIGHTS, JUST A WARMER
STARTING POINT AND MORE MOISTURE SURGING INTO THE REGION. WE DO
NOT COMPLETELY DECOUPLE SO WE CONTINUE WITH SOME BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING, THOUGH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF GUSTS. THE ADDED MIXING WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH
LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID-60S...SLIGHTLY COOLER IN
THE PINE BARRENS AND ALONG THE COAST. WE CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FORECAST TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
THIS WEEK AND EVEN INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DEEP SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH WILL YIELD A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, INCREASING HUMIDITY AND A SEEMINGLY DAILY
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD.
BOTH THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE FACTOR ON WEDNESDAY WHEN HEAT
INDICES MAY REACH 90-92F IN THE URBAN CORRIDOR.

CONVECTIVE INITIATION ON TUESDAY WILL BE FAVORED OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SINCE TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS APPEAR TO BE PRIMARY LIFTING
MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AND LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE
STRONGER FARTHER EASTWARD AS YOU GET CLOSER TO THE UPPER RIDGE THAT
IS JUST OFFSHORE, CONVECTION WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO NE PA AND NW
NJ DURING THE AFTERNOON.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES. NWP
GUIDANCE SHOWS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THRU THE FORECAST
AREA WHICH WOULD PROVIDE THE REQUIRED LIFT FOR MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. AN COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY IT WASHES OUT,
IT MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THE HIGHEST POPS GENERALLY RESIDE WEST OF I-95 BOTH DAYS,
WHERE MODELS SHOW A CORRIDOR OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND LIFT.

UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
FRIDAY IN WAKE OF THURSDAY`S TROUGH. THE 00Z GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF
MODELS ALL SHOW A PIECE OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH`S PV TAIL HANGING BACK UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. IT MAY KEEP
CLOUDS AROUND AND PROVIDE LIFT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
FRIDAY IF IT DOES BECOME TRAPPED UNDERNEATH RIDGE. THIS FEATURE IS
RATHER SUBTLE WITH INHERENTLY LIMITED PREDICTABILITY THIS FAR OUT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA NEXT WEEKEND. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY
APPROACH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FROPA, BUT IT WILL ENHANCE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY - TONIGHT...VFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING
AND VEER TOWARDS THE WEST OF SOUTH BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECTING
GUSTS INTO THE LOW-20 KNOTS RANGE TO OCCUR TODAY. NOT SURE A TRUE
EAST-SOUTHEAST SEABREEZE MAKES ITS WAY ACY WITH THE STRONGER WINDS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. BY LATER THIS EVENING THE GUSTS BEGIN TO
DROP OFF BUT WE KEEP WINDS 8-10 KNOTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE
EARLY MORNING EACH DAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR RDG/ABE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPAND TO
ALL TERMINALS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY BE HIGHEST ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SMALL CRAFT FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
WATERS GOES INTO EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS
COMMENCE. FREQUENT 25 TO 30 KNOTS GUSTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD BEFORE SUBSIDING TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON
TUESDAY. SEAS WILL RAMP UP TOWARDS 5 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS UNDER THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FETCH.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST 20-25 KT DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AS THE
DEEPEST MIXING WILL OCCUR ON LAND. CONFIDENCE FOR 25 KT GUSTS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO EXTENT THE CURRENT SCA INTO TUESDAY. SEAS MAY ALSO
APPROACH 5 FT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE BELOW SCA THRESHOLD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>452.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLEIN
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLEIN




000
FXUS61 KPHI 251315
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
915 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST THIS WEEK. A
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR MID-ATLANTIC REGION
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH A WEAK WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE TO OUR
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THE ENERGY AND LIFT
WITH THE FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. EVEN WITH MOISTURE
STREAMING INTO THE REGION THE LACK OF LIFT AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT,
AS RIDGING REMAINS ENTRENCHED TO OUR SOUTHEAST, WILL KEEP OUR
REGION DRY...AGAIN.

WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX UPWARDS OF 850MB, IF NOT HIGHER, THIS
AFTERNOON KEEPING OUR DEWPOINTS IN CHECK WITH WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS
UPWARDS OF 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. TODAYS STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW, BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND BEING FULLY WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR A VERY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED. EVEN THOUGH 850MB TEMPERATURES
MAY NOT COMPLETELY SUPPORT UPPER-80S FOR HIGHS TODAY, GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED AND THE VERY DRY GROUND IN PLACE, WE
SHOULD HAVE SOME HOME COOKING AND ADD A COUPLE DEGREES ON THE STAT
GUIDANCE.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE MRNG UPDATE ON THIS QUIET MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF NIGHTS, JUST A WARMER
STARTING POINT AND MORE MOISTURE SURGING INTO THE REGION. WE DO
NOT COMPLETELY DECOUPLE SO WE CONTINUE WITH SOME BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING, THOUGH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF GUSTS. THE ADDED MIXING WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH
LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID-60S...SLIGHTLY COOLER IN
THE PINE BARRENS AND ALONG THE COAST. WE CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FORECAST TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
THIS WEEK AND EVEN INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DEEP SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH WILL YIELD A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, INCREASING HUMIDITY AND A SEEMINGLY DAILY
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD.
BOTH THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE FACTOR ON WEDNESDAY WHEN HEAT
INDICES MAY REACH 90-92F IN THE URBAN CORRIDOR.

CONVECTIVE INITIATION ON TUESDAY WILL BE FAVORED OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SINCE TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS APPEAR TO BE PRIMARY LIFTING
MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AND LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE
STRONGER FARTHER EASTWARD AS YOU GET CLOSER TO THE UPPER RIDGE THAT
IS JUST OFFSHORE, CONVECTION WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO NE PA AND NW
NJ DURING THE AFTERNOON.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES. NWP
GUIDANCE SHOWS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THRU THE FORECAST
AREA WHICH WOULD PROVIDE THE REQUIRED LIFT FOR MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. AN COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY IT WASHES OUT,
IT MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THE HIGHEST POPS GENERALLY RESIDE WEST OF I-95 BOTH DAYS,
WHERE MODELS SHOW A CORRIDOR OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND LIFT.

UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
FRIDAY IN WAKE OF THURSDAY`S TROUGH. THE 00Z GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF
MODELS ALL SHOW A PIECE OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH`S PV TAIL HANGING BACK UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. IT MAY KEEP
CLOUDS AROUND AND PROVIDE LIFT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
FRIDAY IF IT DOES BECOME TRAPPED UNDERNEATH RIDGE. THIS FEATURE IS
RATHER SUBTLE WITH INHERENTLY LIMITED PREDICTABILITY THIS FAR OUT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA NEXT WEEKEND. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY
APPROACH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FROPA, BUT IT WILL ENHANCE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY - TONIGHT...VFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING
AND VEER TOWARDS THE WEST OF SOUTH BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECTING
GUSTS INTO THE LOW-20 KNOTS RANGE TO OCCUR TODAY. NOT SURE A TRUE
EAST-SOUTHEAST SEABREEZE MAKES ITS WAY ACY WITH THE STRONGER WINDS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. BY LATER THIS EVENING THE GUSTS BEGIN TO
DROP OFF BUT WE KEEP WINDS 8-10 KNOTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE
EARLY MORNING EACH DAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR RDG/ABE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPAND TO
ALL TERMINALS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY BE HIGHEST ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SMALL CRAFT FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
WATERS GOES INTO EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS
COMMENCE. FREQUENT 25 TO 30 KNOTS GUSTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD BEFORE SUBSIDING TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON
TUESDAY. SEAS WILL RAMP UP TOWARDS 5 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS UNDER THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FETCH.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST 20-25 KT DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AS THE
DEEPEST MIXING WILL OCCUR ON LAND. CONFIDENCE FOR 25 KT GUSTS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO EXTENT THE CURRENT SCA INTO TUESDAY. SEAS MAY ALSO
APPROACH 5 FT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE BELOW SCA THRESHOLD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>452.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLEIN
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLEIN



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 251048
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
648 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS REVEALING ~1028 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE ALIGNED
SW TO NE FROM THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TO OFF THE DELMARVA COAST.
ALOFT, UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE SE COAST.

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY. UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED
OFF THE SE COAST, BUT WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE, SFC
HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. PW
VALUES BEGIN TO CREEP ABOVE CLIMO NORMAL TODAY ON S-SE WIND
(BREEZY THIS AFTN DURING PEAK MIXING). HOWEVER, SUBSIDENCE BENEATH
THE RIDGE WILL BRING A DRY/WARM MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE AREA,
WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW TO SCT AFTN CU. THICKNESS TOOLS
REFLECTING A MODEST BUMP UPWARD IN TEMPS COMPARED TO
SUNDAY...ABOUT A CATEGORY HIGHER ON AVG COMPARED TO THOSE OF
YESTERDAY. THIS YIELDS HIGHS IN THE 75 TO 80 ALONG THE
COAST...LOWER/MID 80S NORTH...MID 80S SOUTH. CLEAR AND MILD
TONIGHT W/EARLY MORNING IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE WILL PROVIDE SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS THRU
TUE THROUGH MIDWEEK. UPPER RIDGE SLIDING OFFSHORE WILL ALLOW FOR
AN INCREMENTAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY TUE/WED. A WEAK LEE TROF
DEVELOPS LATE TUE...AND SOME SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE WEST OF THE
MTNS. HOWEVER, AIRMASS REMAINS CAPPED WITH CONVECTION NOT EXPECTED
TO HOLD TOGETHER FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL AREA. DID ADD A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THE FAR WESTERN TIER OF THE AREA MAINLY ALONG AND NW OF
HWY 15...BUT OTHERWISE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST.

UPPER TROUGH EJECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON WED/THU,
DAMPENING THE EAST COAST UPPER RIDGE SLIGHTLY. RESULTANT PRESSURE
FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL SHARPEN LEE TROF A BIT
FURTHER FOR WED AFTN. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED WITH INCREASING/ADVANCING
MSTR FROM THE MID-SOUTH WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER LLVL CONVERGENCE AND
AT LEAST SOME FORCING FOR SOME ISO TO WIDELY SCT MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION. HAVE ALIGNED 20-30 POP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT ON
WED, MAINLY ALONG/W OF I-95. CHC POP ACROSS THIS SAME AREA AGAIN ON
THU...WITH A SLIGHT CHC POP INSTALLED ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AS
ADDITIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFT NE FROM THE OH/TN VLYS. SEVERE
WX NOT EXPECTED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH SHEAR PROFILES
REMAINING RATHER WEAK. LIGHT STEERING FLOW WOULD PORTEND TO A
CONCERN FOR LOCAL HEAVY RAIN IN ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ON
WED/THU...BUT OVERALL, EXPECT AREAL COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS TO BE
RATHER LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WHILE INCREASING RH WILL MAKE IT INCREASINGLY "SUMMER-LIKE" BY THE
DAY, LOOK FOR HIGHS EACH DAY IN M-U80S W OF THE CHES BAY...M70S-
L80S ALONG THE COAST...COOLEST AT THE BEACHES. EARLY MORNING LOWS
IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EACH
DAY AND TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR /TSTMS ACROSS NW AREAS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP FRONTS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. LEESIDE
TROUGH MAY TRIGGER AFTER THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. GFS/EURO BOTH
INDICATE DRYING FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH LESS COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION. RIDGING WEAKENS AND THE COLD FRONT TO THE NW BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE AREA. TSTM CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES INLAND RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPR 80S THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY INCREASING TO AROUND 90 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGHS RANGE FROM
80 TO 85 NEAR THE COAST. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 65 TO 70.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHILE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SE
AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL VARY
BTWN A SE-SW DIRECTION...BECOMING BREEZY EACH AFTN/EARLY EVENING
DURING PEAK HEATING/AFTN MIXING. AS THE MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION MON EVENING...EXPECT AN
INFLUX OF MOISTURE WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING AND
THICKENING/LOWERING CLOUDS FROM THE SW WITH EACH PASSING DAY.
MID/UPPER RIDGING BREAKS DOWN TUE NIGHT DUE TO A REMNANT TROUGH
PASSING ACROSS THE WRN APPALACHIANS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
FEATURE WILL INTRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FORECAST
BEGINNING WED AFTN/EVENING AND WILL ALLOW PERIODS OF UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHILE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SE
AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
THROUGH TUE. WINDS WILL VARY BTWN A SSE-SSW DIRECTION...BECOMING
BREEZY AOB 15KT EACH AFTN/EARLY EVENING DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SUB-SCA...HOWEVER A FEW GUSTS
COULD REACH UP TO 20KT AT TIMES ON THE COASTAL WATERS/CHES
BAY/SOUND. THE MID/UPPER RIDGING BREAKS DOWN TUE NIGHT DUE TO A
REMNANT TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE WRN APPALACHIANS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL INTRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING WED AFTN/EVENING AND WILL ALLOW
PERIODS OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. WAVES/SEAS WILL AVERAGE 1-3FT TODAY THROUGH FRI.
HOWEVER...SEAS MAY REACH UP TO 4FT BTWN 10-20NM IN THE NRN
COASTAL WATERS (NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT) FROM TUE NIGHT
THROUGH THU/THU NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 251048
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
648 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS REVEALING ~1028 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE ALIGNED
SW TO NE FROM THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TO OFF THE DELMARVA COAST.
ALOFT, UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE SE COAST.

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY. UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED
OFF THE SE COAST, BUT WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE, SFC
HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. PW
VALUES BEGIN TO CREEP ABOVE CLIMO NORMAL TODAY ON S-SE WIND
(BREEZY THIS AFTN DURING PEAK MIXING). HOWEVER, SUBSIDENCE BENEATH
THE RIDGE WILL BRING A DRY/WARM MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE AREA,
WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW TO SCT AFTN CU. THICKNESS TOOLS
REFLECTING A MODEST BUMP UPWARD IN TEMPS COMPARED TO
SUNDAY...ABOUT A CATEGORY HIGHER ON AVG COMPARED TO THOSE OF
YESTERDAY. THIS YIELDS HIGHS IN THE 75 TO 80 ALONG THE
COAST...LOWER/MID 80S NORTH...MID 80S SOUTH. CLEAR AND MILD
TONIGHT W/EARLY MORNING IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE WILL PROVIDE SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS THRU
TUE THROUGH MIDWEEK. UPPER RIDGE SLIDING OFFSHORE WILL ALLOW FOR
AN INCREMENTAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY TUE/WED. A WEAK LEE TROF
DEVELOPS LATE TUE...AND SOME SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE WEST OF THE
MTNS. HOWEVER, AIRMASS REMAINS CAPPED WITH CONVECTION NOT EXPECTED
TO HOLD TOGETHER FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL AREA. DID ADD A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THE FAR WESTERN TIER OF THE AREA MAINLY ALONG AND NW OF
HWY 15...BUT OTHERWISE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST.

UPPER TROUGH EJECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON WED/THU,
DAMPENING THE EAST COAST UPPER RIDGE SLIGHTLY. RESULTANT PRESSURE
FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL SHARPEN LEE TROF A BIT
FURTHER FOR WED AFTN. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED WITH INCREASING/ADVANCING
MSTR FROM THE MID-SOUTH WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER LLVL CONVERGENCE AND
AT LEAST SOME FORCING FOR SOME ISO TO WIDELY SCT MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION. HAVE ALIGNED 20-30 POP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT ON
WED, MAINLY ALONG/W OF I-95. CHC POP ACROSS THIS SAME AREA AGAIN ON
THU...WITH A SLIGHT CHC POP INSTALLED ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AS
ADDITIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFT NE FROM THE OH/TN VLYS. SEVERE
WX NOT EXPECTED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH SHEAR PROFILES
REMAINING RATHER WEAK. LIGHT STEERING FLOW WOULD PORTEND TO A
CONCERN FOR LOCAL HEAVY RAIN IN ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ON
WED/THU...BUT OVERALL, EXPECT AREAL COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS TO BE
RATHER LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WHILE INCREASING RH WILL MAKE IT INCREASINGLY "SUMMER-LIKE" BY THE
DAY, LOOK FOR HIGHS EACH DAY IN M-U80S W OF THE CHES BAY...M70S-
L80S ALONG THE COAST...COOLEST AT THE BEACHES. EARLY MORNING LOWS
IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EACH
DAY AND TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR /TSTMS ACROSS NW AREAS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP FRONTS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. LEESIDE
TROUGH MAY TRIGGER AFTER THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. GFS/EURO BOTH
INDICATE DRYING FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH LESS COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION. RIDGING WEAKENS AND THE COLD FRONT TO THE NW BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE AREA. TSTM CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES INLAND RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPR 80S THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY INCREASING TO AROUND 90 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGHS RANGE FROM
80 TO 85 NEAR THE COAST. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 65 TO 70.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHILE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SE
AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL VARY
BTWN A SE-SW DIRECTION...BECOMING BREEZY EACH AFTN/EARLY EVENING
DURING PEAK HEATING/AFTN MIXING. AS THE MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION MON EVENING...EXPECT AN
INFLUX OF MOISTURE WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING AND
THICKENING/LOWERING CLOUDS FROM THE SW WITH EACH PASSING DAY.
MID/UPPER RIDGING BREAKS DOWN TUE NIGHT DUE TO A REMNANT TROUGH
PASSING ACROSS THE WRN APPALACHIANS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
FEATURE WILL INTRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FORECAST
BEGINNING WED AFTN/EVENING AND WILL ALLOW PERIODS OF UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHILE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SE
AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
THROUGH TUE. WINDS WILL VARY BTWN A SSE-SSW DIRECTION...BECOMING
BREEZY AOB 15KT EACH AFTN/EARLY EVENING DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SUB-SCA...HOWEVER A FEW GUSTS
COULD REACH UP TO 20KT AT TIMES ON THE COASTAL WATERS/CHES
BAY/SOUND. THE MID/UPPER RIDGING BREAKS DOWN TUE NIGHT DUE TO A
REMNANT TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE WRN APPALACHIANS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL INTRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING WED AFTN/EVENING AND WILL ALLOW
PERIODS OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. WAVES/SEAS WILL AVERAGE 1-3FT TODAY THROUGH FRI.
HOWEVER...SEAS MAY REACH UP TO 4FT BTWN 10-20NM IN THE NRN
COASTAL WATERS (NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT) FROM TUE NIGHT
THROUGH THU/THU NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251023
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
623 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN TO THE REGION...BUT SO WILL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND DRAWS TO A CLOSE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
620 AM...MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY AND HOURLY TEMPS...REST UNCHANGED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD OFF
THE COAST ALLOWING FOR WARM SOUTHWEST WIND TO FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION. OCCASIONAL CIRRUS MAY CROSS THE AREA OTHERWISE A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY IS IN STORE UNTIL MIDDAY AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY HELP INDUCE
PRECIPITATION MOSTLY WEST OF THE RIDGES THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH RIDGE AXIS CONTINUING TO PUSH OFF OF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
TUESDAY WILL FEATURE HIGH-END SCATTERED COVERAGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS PWATS SPIKE TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES AND MIDLEVEL RIPPLES
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA. INSTABILITY AND WIND FIELD ARE
NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH WARM AIR ALOFT...SO SEVERE RISK IS
SMALL. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS
GIVEN THE PWAT AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 10K
FEET...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT. RECENT DRY PATTERN KEEPS HIGH
WATER CONCERNS MINIMAL...AT LEAST AT FIRST.

DYING COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY...AND WHILE IT WILL NOT
BRING ANY SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE...IT WILL PROVIDE A BIT MORE
FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY...AS WILL A HEALTHIER H500 SHORTWAVE
FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL KEEP THE IDEA OF LIKELY POPS
HERE. A STRONG STORM OR TWO REMAIN POSSIBLE...BUT AGAIN...SEVERE
RISK IS MARGINAL AS SUGGESTED BY SPC. COVERAGE WILL DIURNALLY
DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT PRESENCE OF BOUNDARY PLUS CONTINUED
SW FLOW ALOFT KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING.

FRONT MORE OR LESS DISSIPATES BY THURSDAY MORNING. EASTERN U.S.
RIDGE BRIEFLY REESTABLISHES ITSELF LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...LEADING TO A LULL IN PRECIPITATION. ALLOW POPS TO DROP TO
NONMENTIONABLE BY 12Z FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT DID
KNOCK DOWN DAYTIME HIGHS TUE/WED A BIT GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION.  CL

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BREAK WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AS SW FLOW AROUND DEPARTING SURFACE
HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY TO BLOOM AGAIN ON FRIDAY. A
MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION DURING THE
WEEKEND...AND THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT COULD GET HUNG UP
IN OUR AREA. WILL KEEP POPS AT HIGH-END CHANCE FOR NOW GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF FRONTAL PROGRESS...WITH A SLIGHT DROP MONDAY AS BOUNDARY
MAY PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO DECREASE COVERAGE.  CL

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE
MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251023
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
623 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN TO THE REGION...BUT SO WILL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND DRAWS TO A CLOSE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
620 AM...MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY AND HOURLY TEMPS...REST UNCHANGED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD OFF
THE COAST ALLOWING FOR WARM SOUTHWEST WIND TO FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION. OCCASIONAL CIRRUS MAY CROSS THE AREA OTHERWISE A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY IS IN STORE UNTIL MIDDAY AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY HELP INDUCE
PRECIPITATION MOSTLY WEST OF THE RIDGES THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH RIDGE AXIS CONTINUING TO PUSH OFF OF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
TUESDAY WILL FEATURE HIGH-END SCATTERED COVERAGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS PWATS SPIKE TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES AND MIDLEVEL RIPPLES
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA. INSTABILITY AND WIND FIELD ARE
NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH WARM AIR ALOFT...SO SEVERE RISK IS
SMALL. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS
GIVEN THE PWAT AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 10K
FEET...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT. RECENT DRY PATTERN KEEPS HIGH
WATER CONCERNS MINIMAL...AT LEAST AT FIRST.

DYING COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY...AND WHILE IT WILL NOT
BRING ANY SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE...IT WILL PROVIDE A BIT MORE
FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY...AS WILL A HEALTHIER H500 SHORTWAVE
FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL KEEP THE IDEA OF LIKELY POPS
HERE. A STRONG STORM OR TWO REMAIN POSSIBLE...BUT AGAIN...SEVERE
RISK IS MARGINAL AS SUGGESTED BY SPC. COVERAGE WILL DIURNALLY
DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT PRESENCE OF BOUNDARY PLUS CONTINUED
SW FLOW ALOFT KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING.

FRONT MORE OR LESS DISSIPATES BY THURSDAY MORNING. EASTERN U.S.
RIDGE BRIEFLY REESTABLISHES ITSELF LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...LEADING TO A LULL IN PRECIPITATION. ALLOW POPS TO DROP TO
NONMENTIONABLE BY 12Z FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT DID
KNOCK DOWN DAYTIME HIGHS TUE/WED A BIT GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION.  CL

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BREAK WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AS SW FLOW AROUND DEPARTING SURFACE
HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY TO BLOOM AGAIN ON FRIDAY. A
MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION DURING THE
WEEKEND...AND THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT COULD GET HUNG UP
IN OUR AREA. WILL KEEP POPS AT HIGH-END CHANCE FOR NOW GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF FRONTAL PROGRESS...WITH A SLIGHT DROP MONDAY AS BOUNDARY
MAY PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO DECREASE COVERAGE.  CL

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE
MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251023
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
623 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN TO THE REGION...BUT SO WILL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND DRAWS TO A CLOSE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
620 AM...MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY AND HOURLY TEMPS...REST UNCHANGED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD OFF
THE COAST ALLOWING FOR WARM SOUTHWEST WIND TO FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION. OCCASIONAL CIRRUS MAY CROSS THE AREA OTHERWISE A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY IS IN STORE UNTIL MIDDAY AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY HELP INDUCE
PRECIPITATION MOSTLY WEST OF THE RIDGES THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH RIDGE AXIS CONTINUING TO PUSH OFF OF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
TUESDAY WILL FEATURE HIGH-END SCATTERED COVERAGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS PWATS SPIKE TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES AND MIDLEVEL RIPPLES
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA. INSTABILITY AND WIND FIELD ARE
NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH WARM AIR ALOFT...SO SEVERE RISK IS
SMALL. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS
GIVEN THE PWAT AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 10K
FEET...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT. RECENT DRY PATTERN KEEPS HIGH
WATER CONCERNS MINIMAL...AT LEAST AT FIRST.

DYING COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY...AND WHILE IT WILL NOT
BRING ANY SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE...IT WILL PROVIDE A BIT MORE
FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY...AS WILL A HEALTHIER H500 SHORTWAVE
FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL KEEP THE IDEA OF LIKELY POPS
HERE. A STRONG STORM OR TWO REMAIN POSSIBLE...BUT AGAIN...SEVERE
RISK IS MARGINAL AS SUGGESTED BY SPC. COVERAGE WILL DIURNALLY
DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT PRESENCE OF BOUNDARY PLUS CONTINUED
SW FLOW ALOFT KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING.

FRONT MORE OR LESS DISSIPATES BY THURSDAY MORNING. EASTERN U.S.
RIDGE BRIEFLY REESTABLISHES ITSELF LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...LEADING TO A LULL IN PRECIPITATION. ALLOW POPS TO DROP TO
NONMENTIONABLE BY 12Z FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT DID
KNOCK DOWN DAYTIME HIGHS TUE/WED A BIT GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION.  CL

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BREAK WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AS SW FLOW AROUND DEPARTING SURFACE
HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY TO BLOOM AGAIN ON FRIDAY. A
MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION DURING THE
WEEKEND...AND THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT COULD GET HUNG UP
IN OUR AREA. WILL KEEP POPS AT HIGH-END CHANCE FOR NOW GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF FRONTAL PROGRESS...WITH A SLIGHT DROP MONDAY AS BOUNDARY
MAY PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO DECREASE COVERAGE.  CL

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE
MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251023
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
623 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN TO THE REGION...BUT SO WILL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND DRAWS TO A CLOSE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
620 AM...MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY AND HOURLY TEMPS...REST UNCHANGED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD OFF
THE COAST ALLOWING FOR WARM SOUTHWEST WIND TO FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION. OCCASIONAL CIRRUS MAY CROSS THE AREA OTHERWISE A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY IS IN STORE UNTIL MIDDAY AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY HELP INDUCE
PRECIPITATION MOSTLY WEST OF THE RIDGES THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH RIDGE AXIS CONTINUING TO PUSH OFF OF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
TUESDAY WILL FEATURE HIGH-END SCATTERED COVERAGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS PWATS SPIKE TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES AND MIDLEVEL RIPPLES
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA. INSTABILITY AND WIND FIELD ARE
NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH WARM AIR ALOFT...SO SEVERE RISK IS
SMALL. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS
GIVEN THE PWAT AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 10K
FEET...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT. RECENT DRY PATTERN KEEPS HIGH
WATER CONCERNS MINIMAL...AT LEAST AT FIRST.

DYING COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY...AND WHILE IT WILL NOT
BRING ANY SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE...IT WILL PROVIDE A BIT MORE
FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY...AS WILL A HEALTHIER H500 SHORTWAVE
FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL KEEP THE IDEA OF LIKELY POPS
HERE. A STRONG STORM OR TWO REMAIN POSSIBLE...BUT AGAIN...SEVERE
RISK IS MARGINAL AS SUGGESTED BY SPC. COVERAGE WILL DIURNALLY
DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT PRESENCE OF BOUNDARY PLUS CONTINUED
SW FLOW ALOFT KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING.

FRONT MORE OR LESS DISSIPATES BY THURSDAY MORNING. EASTERN U.S.
RIDGE BRIEFLY REESTABLISHES ITSELF LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...LEADING TO A LULL IN PRECIPITATION. ALLOW POPS TO DROP TO
NONMENTIONABLE BY 12Z FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT DID
KNOCK DOWN DAYTIME HIGHS TUE/WED A BIT GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION.  CL

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BREAK WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AS SW FLOW AROUND DEPARTING SURFACE
HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY TO BLOOM AGAIN ON FRIDAY. A
MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION DURING THE
WEEKEND...AND THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT COULD GET HUNG UP
IN OUR AREA. WILL KEEP POPS AT HIGH-END CHANCE FOR NOW GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF FRONTAL PROGRESS...WITH A SLIGHT DROP MONDAY AS BOUNDARY
MAY PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO DECREASE COVERAGE.  CL

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE
MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



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