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000
FXUS61 KPHI 130231
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
931 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS WEEKEND AND THEN MOVE EAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MONDAY AND THEN MOVE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS TUESDAY AND THEN
NORTH INTO CANADA WEDNESDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
ONE BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS IS EXITING OFF THE NJ CST. ANOTHER IS
MOVG THRU ERN PA ATTM. THE HRRR INDICATES THIS AREA WILL DISSIPATE
AS IT MOVES EWD. HOWEVER, THE HRRR DID NOT DO WELL WITH THE
EARLIER BAND SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WILL KEEP HIGH POPS W AND LWR
POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR THIS BAND.

A STRONG CDFNT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THEN A WIND
SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND GUSTY 20-30 MPH BY DAWN
SATURDAY....POSSIBLE ISOLATED GUSTS 40-45 MPH AT SUNRISE PER
ARRIVING STRONG CAA AND PRES RISES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WIND CHILL ADVY AND WIND ADVY POSTED IN ADDITION TO PRIOR WIND
CHILL WARNING.  SPS FROM YDY NO LONGER NEEDED.

DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER MOMENTUM TRANSFER IS FEATURED ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ONCOMING ARCTIC AIRMASS INVASION. LARGE LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES AND BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER INDICATING A POSSIBILITY OF
FLURRIES OR SQUALLS BUT WILL THE SFC TT/TD SPREAD EXCEED 25F AND
MAKE THOSE SQUALLS JUST VIRGA? SEEMS LIKE BEST CHC FOR A SQUALL
WOULD BE THE MORNING AND IN THE REGION S OF THE PA TURNPIKE.

AM THINKING OF GUSTS 50 MPH IN THE POCONOS AND ALSO SCATTERED 50
MPH GUSTS DEVELOPING IN THE KRDG-KPHL-KILG KACY AND NORTH SIDE OF
DE BAY SLOT FOR THE AFTN. WIND ADVY ISSUED. NOT SURE HOW MANY
NOTICED BUT THE NAM AND OP ECMWF HAVE BEEN A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE
ON WIND. JUST LOOKS LIKE TOO DEEP A MIXED LAYER TO AVOID CONNECTING
A FEW EDDIES OF 50 KT GUSTS DOWN FROM 6000 TO 7000 FT ALOFT. THE
INVERSION SINKS TO NEAR 850 MB LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY.

STRONGEST WINDS ASIDE FROM THE INITIAL BURST NEAR 11-12Z, MAY BE
LATE AFTN AND EVENING. FOR NOW WANTED TO LIMIT ADVY ONLY TO THE
DAY AND IF ITS GUSTING 40 KT AT 3 PM SATURDAY, THEN SUSPECT IT CAN
GUST 40-45 KT THROUGH 10 PM. CONFIDENCE ON VERIFICATION IS
AVERAGE. THIS COULD BE OVERDONE BUT HAVE SEEN REPEATEDLY THE POCS
WIND MATCH THE OVERWATER WIND NEAR 44065, AND NW FLOW STRONGEST
GUSTS NEAR A RDG-PHL LINE. ALSO ADDED MD E SHORE ALONG THE STILL
WARM CHES BAY AND DELAWARE ALONG THE BAY FROM WILMINGTON TO LEWES
WHERE I THINK SOME HEFTY GUSTS COULD ADD TO THE CHILL.

OTHERWISE WIDESPREAD GUSTS 40 MPH SATURDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES .. TENDING TO CLEAR LATE DAY.

WINDS WERE DERIVED FROM THE GFS, THE TEMPS FROM THE NAM MOS BLENDED
WITH THE 2M TEMPS OF THE 12Z GFS/NAM. HRRX INDICATED NEAR 0 AT KMPO
AT 17Z SATURDAY...WITHOUT A WIND CHILL. CANT SEE IT MORE THAN 17F
AT PHL AT 18Z SAT...MAYBE EVEN A DEGREE OR 2 COLDER?.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE HEART OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL
READINGS WILL BE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES SAT NIGHT AROUND -10 ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND CLOSER TO
5 DEGREES ACROSS THE METRO PHILLY AREAS AND OVER THE DELMARVA. HIGH
TEMPS SUNDAY IN THE TEENS MOST AREAS...BUT SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE
SRN POCONOS. WIND CHILL READINGS -20 TO -32 FAR NORTH AND -5 TO -10
OVER THE DELMARVA.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE SOUTH MONDAY AND MOVE
UP THE INLAND EAST COAST TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM
THAT SEEMS TO BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AMONGST THE OP MODELS
FAVOR A LOW TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN PART OF OUR AREA. THIS
WILL ALLOW A DECENT FLOW OF WARMER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AS SNOW...BUT WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN LATER MON NIGHT AND REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN TUESDAY. THE
QPF COULD BE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN MANY AREAS. THERE IS ALSO
SOME CHC FOR AN ACCUMULATING SNOW MONDAY ACROSS (MOST LIKELY)
ERN/NERN PA BEFORE THE CHANGE TO RAIN. EARLIEST PREDICTIONS FOR SNOW
ACCUMS WOULD BE AROUND 1-3 INCHES AT THIS POINT. THE DETAILS WILL BE
TUNED UP AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES.

THE STORM MOVES UP INTO CANADA WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER COOLER AIR FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE. HOWEVER, BASED ON LATEST RADAR SHOWING
SOME ENHANCED ECHOES, HAVE MOVED UP THE TIMING OF THE SHSN. MUCH
OF ACTIVITY IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND, BUT AS CLOSE AS KPNE IS
REPORTING SOME -SN. SO FAR THE SHSN HAS BEEN LIGHT ENOUGH TO BE
VFR. HOWEVER, SOME MVFR CAN NOT BE RULED OUT, AND WILL CONTINUE TO
INCLUDE IN THE FCSTS.

SATURDAY...THE BIGGEST ISSUE AFFECTING AVIATION TRAVEL ON
SATURDAY WILL BE THE WINDS. BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT,
THE WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST AND BECOME
VERY GUSTY. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15-20 KNOTS BY 12-15Z
AND INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS FROM 25 KNOTS EARLY
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 40 KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST
WINDS 10 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 30-35 KNOTS EARLY, DIMINISHING
SOME OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GUSTS STILL 20-25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...DEGRADING CONDITIONS WITH MVFR/IFR LIKELY
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW POSSIBLY
BEGINNING MONDAY FOR MANY AREAS, POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN AT
TIMES FOR SOME AREAS.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. WINDY.

WEDNESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS. WINDY.

&&

.MARINE...
LULL IN THE WIND AND SEAS WILL END SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

GALES AND FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS-ADVISORIES POSTED. THE HEAVIEST
FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE MIDNIGHT TO 7 AM ALONG THE SHORE WHERE SSTS
NOW DOWN TO ABOUT 35-36F AND USED 35 FOR THE ZY THRESHOLD.

ISOLATED 50 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE SATURDAY IN FUNNELED NW WIND DOWN DE
BAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING CONTINUES WITH STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT AS VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING AND FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE DAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
LIKELY...GALES POSSIBLE AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EAST
COAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BEFORE EVERYONE HEADS INTO THE WEEKEND, I WANTED TO BRING NEXT
WEEK`S STORM INTO LIGHT AND MENTION THAT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING ACROSS THE HSA. THERE`S STILL A LOT THAT NEEDS TO UNFOLD,
BUT THE 5-DAY WPC QPF OF 1.50 TO 2.50 INCHES OF LIQUID COMBINED WITH
ANOTHER 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF SWE ON THE GROUND WOULD VERY LIKELY
CAUSE NUISANCE LOW-LYING FLOODING AND POSSIBLY SOME MINOR TO
MODERATE RIVER FLOODING (RIVERS ASSOCIATED WITH OUR FORECAST
POINTS). THIS ASSUMES MOST, IF NOT ALL, THE PRECIPITATION FALLS AS
RAIN.

THE UNCERTAINTY THIS AFTERNOON IS LARGE. YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME, THE
PRECIPITATION WAS HEAVIEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. NOW IT`S LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BESIDES TIMING, TRACK IS QUITE DIFFERENT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO WITH THE EURO BEING FURTHER WEST AND MORE
LIQUIDY. TRACK WILL PLAY A ROLE IN TEMPS AND NOT ONLY AFFECT WHAT
TYPE OF PRECIPITATION FALLS, BUT ALSO AFFECT WHAT REMAINING SWE
MELTS. THERE`S ABOUT 0.25 TO 0.50 SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA. I CAN
SAY WE ARE IN A BETTER SPOT THAN ON THE 3RD AND 4TH WHEN THERE WAS
IN EXCESS OF 2.00 OF SWE ALONG THE I-78 CORRIDOR. AS AN FYI, ONE OF
THE MAIN REASONS WE DIDN`T SEE THE FLOODING, THAT MODELS SUGGESTED,
ON THE 3RD AND 4TH WAS BECAUSE ALL THE SWE DID NOT RAPIDLY COME OUT
OF THE SNOWPACK. SNOWMELT CAN BE A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK.

WHILE THE LACK OF SWE IS LOOKING BETTER ACROSS THE HSA, NOT ALL THE
RIVERS HAVE RECEDED BACK TO WHERE THEY WERE PRIOR TO THE 3RD. SO
RIVERS WILL START HIGHER AND THE COLD THIS WEEKEND WILL SURELY GET
THE GROUND HARD FOR A VERY EFFICIENT RUNOFF.

SO THE TAKE AWAY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND IS TO UNDERSTAND THAT IF
THE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY (OR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY) EVENT IS ALL
LIQUID ACROSS THE AREA, LOW-LYING, POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS LIKELY
AND MINOR TO MODERATE RIVER FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. IF THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS OFF AS SNOW OR ICE, THE FLOODING THREAT
DECREASES. IF ALL SNOW FALLS, WE`RE POTENTIALLY JUST KICKING THE CAN
DOWN THE ROAD FOR FUTURE FLOODING. TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS STILL EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING, DESPITE THE MOS GUIDANCE...AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON SO FAR.

BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY:
KABE, KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE 14TH,
IF THEN. THOSE HAVE BEEN ADDED RECENTLY BELOW.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH ----RER LOW MAX
---------------------- --------------------

ABE             8                         -1 IN 1979     14-1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979     13-1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979     14-1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979     13-1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     060-061-070-071-101>106.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NJZ007>010-012>027.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NJZ001-014-
     016>027.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NJZ001.
DE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     DEZ001-002.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     MDZ008-012.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-020.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO 9
     AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ430-431-454-455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 130225
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
925 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST THIS EVENING.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING
IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST UPDATED TO CANCEL THE WINTER STORM WARNG AND ADVSRY WITH
SNOW ENDING ACROSS SE VA/NE NC. WILL ISSUE A SPS FOR BLACK ICE
OVER THESE AREAS TNGT. -SN CONTINUES OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE
TNGT...WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO STAY BLO ONE INCH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CENTERS 1014MB SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC
COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS AREA OF LIGHT
SNOW MOVING ACROSS EAST/SOUTHEAST VA...WITH OBS AND RADAR RETURNS
INDICATING HEAVIEST SNOW OVER NE NC. THE HEAVIEST BAND OF
SNOW/SLEET AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING REMAINS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH
OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE HIGHLIGHTED
AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LIGHT SNOW WILL WIND DOWN ACROSS ERN
VA INTO SE VA BY 5 PM...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION.
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 INCH OF
SNOWFALL STILL POSSIBLE BACK INTO ISLE OF WIGHT AND SOUTHAMPTON
COUNTIES. THE SFC LOW DEEPENS AND LIFTS NEWD AS THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE. SNOW BAND WILL PIVOT INTO SE VA LATE TODAY
BEFORE THE LIGHT SNOW FINALLY PUSHES OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY THEN PUSHES THRU THE REGION THIS EVENING. HAVE
INCREASED POPS FOR THE MD ERN SHORE TO LIKELY LATE THIS EVENING AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALONG THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1
TO 2 INCHES. NW WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY...INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH
COASTAL AREAS AND THE ERN SHORE. SKY CLEARS SW TO NE LATE
TONIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH LOCATES OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES SAT AS THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES OFFSHORE. POLAR FRONT
PROGGED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE SAT...USHERING IN SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON. H85 TEMPS PLUMMET TO AROUND -18 TO -20C (-2 TO -3 STD
DEV). HIGHS ONLY FORECAST IN THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW 30S SE.
WINDY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 TO
35 MPH. GUSTS OVER THE EASTERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 MPH. WHILE THE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY (DEWPOINTS BELOW
0)...BAY STREAMERS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE. SKY AVERAGES SUNNY
SOUTHWEST TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE IN WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION SAT NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH INLAND...ALLOWING FOR GREAT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS PLUNGING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS INLAND TO UPPER TEENS NEAR THE COAST. WIND CHILL VALUES
GENERALLY 0 TO 5 ABOVE INLAND AND AROUND 5 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD OFF ON WIND CHILL ADVISORY ATTM.

THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SUN...WITH HIGHS ONLY
WARMING INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S (-2 STD DEV). SKY AVERAGES MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH A LIGHT NY WIND. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUN NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. NRN STREAM ENERGY LIFTS
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS MON. SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. POPS INCREASE LATE SUN
NIGHT AS THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM WEAKENS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. AIR MASS WILL EASILY BE COLD ENOUGH SUN
NIGHT FOR ALL SNOW AS LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE MON AS A COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS
ALONG THE COAST AND THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP SOUTH LOW BEGINS TO LIFT
NEWD TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE
NW MONDAY MORNING...WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS ALL BUT SE VA/NE NC MON
AFTERNOON. WAA ALOFT/CRITICAL THICKNESSES STILL INDICATING A CHANGE
OVER FROM SN/IP MON MORNING TO RA CLOSER TO THE COAST MON AFTERNOON.
PTYPE LIKELY TO REMAIN ALL SNOW NW. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME TIMING
AND SPATIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...BUT CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST CALLS FOR 1-2 INCHES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR INTO
CENTRAL VA AND NRN VA...WITH 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12/12Z NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS MONDAY EVENING...THEN RAPIDLY
DEEPENING AS IT LIFTS NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MIXED PCPN COULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING OVER THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD OCCUR IN
THE EVENING...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES SSE. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THE
LONGEST IN THE FAR NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES WHERE SOME POCKETS OF -FZRA
COULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT GENERALLY ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN ARE POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A BAND OF STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT PASSES
OVER THE REGION. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS COULD PRODUCE A MODESTLY
STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR A 3-6HR
PERIOD TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AT LEAST THE MID/UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH LOW 60S POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST...WHILE THE PIEDMONT STRUGGLES TO RISE ABOVE THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. GENERALLY EXPECTING DRIER CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME 20-30% POPS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE N AS A
SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. DRY AND MILD
WEDNESDAY UNDER WNW FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A
COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL...BUT WITHIN -1 ST DEV. A MODERATING TREND COMMENCES LATE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE
COAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST STATES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS OF 01Z...SNOW HAS ENDED OVER SE VA/NE NC BUT CONTINUES OVER
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE. AS THE LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC
AIR APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH...THERE MAY BE MORE SNOW AT SBY.
HAVE LIGHT SNOW IN THE TAF FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD GO
TO IFR BUT NOT EXPECTED TO LAST FOR VERY LONG.

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS SE PORTIONS WITH SOME
IFR INDICATED AT ECG. CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY INDICATED FOR SATURDAY. THE
EXCEPTION WOULD BE AT SBY WHERE STRATOCU IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
CEILING OF AROUND 5K FT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING TURNING
TO RAIN FROM SE TO NW MONDAY AFTN. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS INDICATED
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PERIODS OF IFR ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
PCPN. DRY AND VFR WEATHER RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING ENE OFF THE NC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING
ACROSS THE ERN LAKES...WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT TRAILING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY...AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SPILLING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SN...WHICH WILL
REDUCE VSBY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (MAINLY S). AS THE LOW
LIFTS TO THE NE TONIGHT THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN
FROM THE NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF
35-40KT OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 5-8FT WITH 4-5 FT
WAVES IN THE BAY. GALE FLAGS CONTINUE FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND SPEEDS REMAIN CAPPED
AT HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME. FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED AS
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND TRACKS UP THE PIEDMONT TUESDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODESTLY STRONG SSE WIND AND BUILDING
SEAS/WAVES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES / LOW WATER ADVISORIES FOR SOME AREAS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND MUCH OF THE COASTLINES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THE MAIN AREAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THAT COULD HAVE
LOW WATER ARE ALONG THE ATLANITC COAST N OF CAPE CHARLES. A LOW
WATER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 08-13Z (3 TO 8 AM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ633-635>638.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652-654.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...MAS/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 130033
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
733 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST THIS EVENING.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING
IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST UPDATED TO CANCEL THE WINTER STORM WARNG AND ADVSRY WITH
SNOW ENDING ACROSS SE VA/NE NC. WILL ISSUE A SPS FOR BLACK ICE
OVER THESE AREAS TNGT. -SN CONTINUES OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE
TNGT...WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO STAY BLO ONE INCH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CENTERS 1014MB SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC
COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS AREA OF LIGHT
SNOW MOVING ACROSS EAST/SOUTHEAST VA...WITH OBS AND RADAR RETURNS
INDICATING HEAVIEST SNOW OVER NE NC. THE HEAVIEST BAND OF
SNOW/SLEET AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING REMAINS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH
OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE HIGHLIGHTED
AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LIGHT SNOW WILL WIND DOWN ACROSS ERN
VA INTO SE VA BY 5 PM...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION.
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 INCH OF
SNOWFALL STILL POSSIBLE BACK INTO ISLE OF WIGHT AND SOUTHAMPTON
COUNTIES. THE SFC LOW DEEPENS AND LIFTS NEWD AS THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE. SNOW BAND WILL PIVOT INTO SE VA LATE TODAY
BEFORE THE LIGHT SNOW FINALLY PUSHES OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY THEN PUSHES THRU THE REGION THIS EVENING. HAVE
INCREASED POPS FOR THE MD ERN SHORE TO LIKELY LATE THIS EVENING AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALONG THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1
TO 2 INCHES. NW WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY...INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH
COASTAL AREAS AND THE ERN SHORE. SKY CLEARS SW TO NE LATE
TONIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH LOCATES OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES SAT AS THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES OFFSHORE. POLAR FRONT
PROGGED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE SAT...USHERING IN SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON. H85 TEMPS PLUMMET TO AROUND -18 TO -20C (-2 TO -3 STD
DEV). HIGHS ONLY FORECAST IN THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW 30S SE.
WINDY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 TO
35 MPH. GUSTS OVER THE EASTERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 MPH. WHILE THE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY (DEWPOINTS BELOW
0)...BAY STREAMERS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE. SKY AVERAGES SUNNY
SOUTHWEST TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE IN WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION SAT NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH INLAND...ALLOWING FOR GREAT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS PLUNGING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS INLAND TO UPPER TEENS NEAR THE COAST. WIND CHILL VALUES
GENERALLY 0 TO 5 ABOVE INLAND AND AROUND 5 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD OFF ON WIND CHILL ADVISORY ATTM.

THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SUN...WITH HIGHS ONLY
WARMING INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S (-2 STD DEV). SKY AVERAGES MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH A LIGHT NY WIND. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUN NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. NRN STREAM ENERGY LIFTS
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS MON. SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. POPS INCREASE LATE SUN
NIGHT AS THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM WEAKENS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. AIR MASS WILL EASILY BE COLD ENOUGH SUN
NIGHT FOR ALL SNOW AS LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE MON AS A COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS
ALONG THE COAST AND THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP SOUTH LOW BEGINS TO LIFT
NEWD TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE
NW MONDAY MORNING...WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS ALL BUT SE VA/NE NC MON
AFTERNOON. WAA ALOFT/CRITICAL THICKNESSES STILL INDICATING A CHANGE
OVER FROM SN/IP MON MORNING TO RA CLOSER TO THE COAST MON AFTERNOON.
PTYPE LIKELY TO REMAIN ALL SNOW NW. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME TIMING
AND SPATIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...BUT CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST CALLS FOR 1-2 INCHES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR INTO
CENTRAL VA AND NRN VA...WITH 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12/12Z NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS MONDAY EVENING...THEN RAPIDLY
DEEPENING AS IT LIFTS NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MIXED PCPN COULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING OVER THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD OCCUR IN
THE EVENING...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES SSE. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THE
LONGEST IN THE FAR NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES WHERE SOME POCKETS OF -FZRA
COULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT GENERALLY ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN ARE POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A BAND OF STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT PASSES
OVER THE REGION. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS COULD PRODUCE A MODESTLY
STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR A 3-6HR
PERIOD TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AT LEAST THE MID/UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH LOW 60S POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST...WHILE THE PIEDMONT STRUGGLES TO RISE ABOVE THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. GENERALLY EXPECTING DRIER CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME 20-30% POPS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE N AS A
SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. DRY AND MILD
WEDNESDAY UNDER WNW FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A
COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL...BUT WITHIN -1 ST DEV. A MODERATING TREND COMMENCES LATE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WK SFC LO PRES WILL BE EXITING NC/SC CST THIS AFTN/EVE. BROAD AREA
OF SN TO MOVE ACRS MNLY SE VA/NE NC. PD OF MDT SN PSBL FM ABT
20-23Z/12...ESP AT ECG. ELSW...DRY LO LVL ATMOS XPD TO PREVENT
ANYTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES RIC-SBY.

TROUGH ALOFT TO PUSH ACRS THE RGN TNGT...PTNTL FOR SCT -SN...MNLY
INVOF SBY FM ABT 02-03Z TO 08-09Z/13. OTRW...STRONG CDFNT TO PUSH
ACRS THE RGN OVRNGT. GUSTY NW WNDS TO 25-35 KT TO DEVELOP LT
TNGT/EARLY SAT MRNG...CONTG THROUGH THE DAY SAT. VFR AND DRY WX
WILL PREVAIL SAT THROUGH SUN NGT. PCPN DEVELOPS MONDAY AS THE NEXT
WX SYS APPROACHES FROM THE W. PCPN BEGINS AS SNOW MON MRNG...MNLY
INLAND...BEFORE WARMER AIR WORKS IN AND CHANGES ANY SN TO RA FROM
SE TO NW DURING MON. RA CONTS INTO TUESDAY AS LO PRES TRACKS ACRS
THE AREA. DRY WX RETURNS WED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING ENE OFF THE NC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING
ACROSS THE ERN LAKES...WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT TRAILING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY...AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SPILLING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SN...WHICH WILL
REDUCE VSBY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (MAINLY S). AS THE LOW
LIFTS TO THE NE TONIGHT THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN
FROM THE NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF
35-40KT OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 5-8FT WITH 4-5 FT
WAVES IN THE BAY. GALE FLAGS CONTINUE FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND SPEEDS REMAIN CAPPED
AT HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME. FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED AS
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND TRACKS UP THE PIEDMONT TUESDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODESTLY STRONG SSE WIND AND BUILDING
SEAS/WAVES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES / LOW WATER ADVISORIES FOR SOME AREAS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND MUCH OF THE COASTLINES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THE MAIN AREAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THAT COULD HAVE
LOW WATER ARE ALONG THE ATLANITC COAST N OF CAPE CHARLES. A LOW
WATER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 08-13Z (3 TO 8 AM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ633-635>638.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652-654.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...MAS/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB/MPR
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 130033
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
733 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST THIS EVENING.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING
IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST UPDATED TO CANCEL THE WINTER STORM WARNG AND ADVSRY WITH
SNOW ENDING ACROSS SE VA/NE NC. WILL ISSUE A SPS FOR BLACK ICE
OVER THESE AREAS TNGT. -SN CONTINUES OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE
TNGT...WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO STAY BLO ONE INCH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CENTERS 1014MB SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC
COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS AREA OF LIGHT
SNOW MOVING ACROSS EAST/SOUTHEAST VA...WITH OBS AND RADAR RETURNS
INDICATING HEAVIEST SNOW OVER NE NC. THE HEAVIEST BAND OF
SNOW/SLEET AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING REMAINS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH
OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE HIGHLIGHTED
AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LIGHT SNOW WILL WIND DOWN ACROSS ERN
VA INTO SE VA BY 5 PM...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION.
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 INCH OF
SNOWFALL STILL POSSIBLE BACK INTO ISLE OF WIGHT AND SOUTHAMPTON
COUNTIES. THE SFC LOW DEEPENS AND LIFTS NEWD AS THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE. SNOW BAND WILL PIVOT INTO SE VA LATE TODAY
BEFORE THE LIGHT SNOW FINALLY PUSHES OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY THEN PUSHES THRU THE REGION THIS EVENING. HAVE
INCREASED POPS FOR THE MD ERN SHORE TO LIKELY LATE THIS EVENING AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALONG THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1
TO 2 INCHES. NW WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY...INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH
COASTAL AREAS AND THE ERN SHORE. SKY CLEARS SW TO NE LATE
TONIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH LOCATES OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES SAT AS THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES OFFSHORE. POLAR FRONT
PROGGED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE SAT...USHERING IN SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON. H85 TEMPS PLUMMET TO AROUND -18 TO -20C (-2 TO -3 STD
DEV). HIGHS ONLY FORECAST IN THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW 30S SE.
WINDY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 TO
35 MPH. GUSTS OVER THE EASTERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 MPH. WHILE THE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY (DEWPOINTS BELOW
0)...BAY STREAMERS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE. SKY AVERAGES SUNNY
SOUTHWEST TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE IN WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION SAT NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH INLAND...ALLOWING FOR GREAT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS PLUNGING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS INLAND TO UPPER TEENS NEAR THE COAST. WIND CHILL VALUES
GENERALLY 0 TO 5 ABOVE INLAND AND AROUND 5 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD OFF ON WIND CHILL ADVISORY ATTM.

THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SUN...WITH HIGHS ONLY
WARMING INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S (-2 STD DEV). SKY AVERAGES MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH A LIGHT NY WIND. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUN NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. NRN STREAM ENERGY LIFTS
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS MON. SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. POPS INCREASE LATE SUN
NIGHT AS THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM WEAKENS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. AIR MASS WILL EASILY BE COLD ENOUGH SUN
NIGHT FOR ALL SNOW AS LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE MON AS A COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS
ALONG THE COAST AND THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP SOUTH LOW BEGINS TO LIFT
NEWD TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE
NW MONDAY MORNING...WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS ALL BUT SE VA/NE NC MON
AFTERNOON. WAA ALOFT/CRITICAL THICKNESSES STILL INDICATING A CHANGE
OVER FROM SN/IP MON MORNING TO RA CLOSER TO THE COAST MON AFTERNOON.
PTYPE LIKELY TO REMAIN ALL SNOW NW. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME TIMING
AND SPATIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...BUT CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST CALLS FOR 1-2 INCHES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR INTO
CENTRAL VA AND NRN VA...WITH 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12/12Z NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS MONDAY EVENING...THEN RAPIDLY
DEEPENING AS IT LIFTS NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MIXED PCPN COULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING OVER THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD OCCUR IN
THE EVENING...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES SSE. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THE
LONGEST IN THE FAR NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES WHERE SOME POCKETS OF -FZRA
COULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT GENERALLY ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN ARE POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A BAND OF STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT PASSES
OVER THE REGION. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS COULD PRODUCE A MODESTLY
STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR A 3-6HR
PERIOD TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AT LEAST THE MID/UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH LOW 60S POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST...WHILE THE PIEDMONT STRUGGLES TO RISE ABOVE THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. GENERALLY EXPECTING DRIER CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME 20-30% POPS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE N AS A
SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. DRY AND MILD
WEDNESDAY UNDER WNW FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A
COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL...BUT WITHIN -1 ST DEV. A MODERATING TREND COMMENCES LATE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WK SFC LO PRES WILL BE EXITING NC/SC CST THIS AFTN/EVE. BROAD AREA
OF SN TO MOVE ACRS MNLY SE VA/NE NC. PD OF MDT SN PSBL FM ABT
20-23Z/12...ESP AT ECG. ELSW...DRY LO LVL ATMOS XPD TO PREVENT
ANYTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES RIC-SBY.

TROUGH ALOFT TO PUSH ACRS THE RGN TNGT...PTNTL FOR SCT -SN...MNLY
INVOF SBY FM ABT 02-03Z TO 08-09Z/13. OTRW...STRONG CDFNT TO PUSH
ACRS THE RGN OVRNGT. GUSTY NW WNDS TO 25-35 KT TO DEVELOP LT
TNGT/EARLY SAT MRNG...CONTG THROUGH THE DAY SAT. VFR AND DRY WX
WILL PREVAIL SAT THROUGH SUN NGT. PCPN DEVELOPS MONDAY AS THE NEXT
WX SYS APPROACHES FROM THE W. PCPN BEGINS AS SNOW MON MRNG...MNLY
INLAND...BEFORE WARMER AIR WORKS IN AND CHANGES ANY SN TO RA FROM
SE TO NW DURING MON. RA CONTS INTO TUESDAY AS LO PRES TRACKS ACRS
THE AREA. DRY WX RETURNS WED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING ENE OFF THE NC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING
ACROSS THE ERN LAKES...WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT TRAILING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY...AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SPILLING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SN...WHICH WILL
REDUCE VSBY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (MAINLY S). AS THE LOW
LIFTS TO THE NE TONIGHT THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN
FROM THE NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF
35-40KT OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 5-8FT WITH 4-5 FT
WAVES IN THE BAY. GALE FLAGS CONTINUE FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND SPEEDS REMAIN CAPPED
AT HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME. FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED AS
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND TRACKS UP THE PIEDMONT TUESDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODESTLY STRONG SSE WIND AND BUILDING
SEAS/WAVES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES / LOW WATER ADVISORIES FOR SOME AREAS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND MUCH OF THE COASTLINES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THE MAIN AREAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THAT COULD HAVE
LOW WATER ARE ALONG THE ATLANITC COAST N OF CAPE CHARLES. A LOW
WATER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 08-13Z (3 TO 8 AM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ633-635>638.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652-654.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...MAS/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB/MPR
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 130033
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
733 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST THIS EVENING.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING
IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST UPDATED TO CANCEL THE WINTER STORM WARNG AND ADVSRY WITH
SNOW ENDING ACROSS SE VA/NE NC. WILL ISSUE A SPS FOR BLACK ICE
OVER THESE AREAS TNGT. -SN CONTINUES OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE
TNGT...WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO STAY BLO ONE INCH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CENTERS 1014MB SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC
COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS AREA OF LIGHT
SNOW MOVING ACROSS EAST/SOUTHEAST VA...WITH OBS AND RADAR RETURNS
INDICATING HEAVIEST SNOW OVER NE NC. THE HEAVIEST BAND OF
SNOW/SLEET AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING REMAINS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH
OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE HIGHLIGHTED
AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LIGHT SNOW WILL WIND DOWN ACROSS ERN
VA INTO SE VA BY 5 PM...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION.
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 INCH OF
SNOWFALL STILL POSSIBLE BACK INTO ISLE OF WIGHT AND SOUTHAMPTON
COUNTIES. THE SFC LOW DEEPENS AND LIFTS NEWD AS THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE. SNOW BAND WILL PIVOT INTO SE VA LATE TODAY
BEFORE THE LIGHT SNOW FINALLY PUSHES OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY THEN PUSHES THRU THE REGION THIS EVENING. HAVE
INCREASED POPS FOR THE MD ERN SHORE TO LIKELY LATE THIS EVENING AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALONG THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1
TO 2 INCHES. NW WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY...INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH
COASTAL AREAS AND THE ERN SHORE. SKY CLEARS SW TO NE LATE
TONIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH LOCATES OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES SAT AS THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES OFFSHORE. POLAR FRONT
PROGGED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE SAT...USHERING IN SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON. H85 TEMPS PLUMMET TO AROUND -18 TO -20C (-2 TO -3 STD
DEV). HIGHS ONLY FORECAST IN THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW 30S SE.
WINDY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 TO
35 MPH. GUSTS OVER THE EASTERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 MPH. WHILE THE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY (DEWPOINTS BELOW
0)...BAY STREAMERS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE. SKY AVERAGES SUNNY
SOUTHWEST TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE IN WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION SAT NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH INLAND...ALLOWING FOR GREAT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS PLUNGING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS INLAND TO UPPER TEENS NEAR THE COAST. WIND CHILL VALUES
GENERALLY 0 TO 5 ABOVE INLAND AND AROUND 5 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD OFF ON WIND CHILL ADVISORY ATTM.

THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SUN...WITH HIGHS ONLY
WARMING INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S (-2 STD DEV). SKY AVERAGES MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH A LIGHT NY WIND. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUN NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. NRN STREAM ENERGY LIFTS
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS MON. SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. POPS INCREASE LATE SUN
NIGHT AS THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM WEAKENS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. AIR MASS WILL EASILY BE COLD ENOUGH SUN
NIGHT FOR ALL SNOW AS LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE MON AS A COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS
ALONG THE COAST AND THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP SOUTH LOW BEGINS TO LIFT
NEWD TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE
NW MONDAY MORNING...WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS ALL BUT SE VA/NE NC MON
AFTERNOON. WAA ALOFT/CRITICAL THICKNESSES STILL INDICATING A CHANGE
OVER FROM SN/IP MON MORNING TO RA CLOSER TO THE COAST MON AFTERNOON.
PTYPE LIKELY TO REMAIN ALL SNOW NW. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME TIMING
AND SPATIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...BUT CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST CALLS FOR 1-2 INCHES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR INTO
CENTRAL VA AND NRN VA...WITH 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12/12Z NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS MONDAY EVENING...THEN RAPIDLY
DEEPENING AS IT LIFTS NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MIXED PCPN COULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING OVER THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD OCCUR IN
THE EVENING...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES SSE. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THE
LONGEST IN THE FAR NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES WHERE SOME POCKETS OF -FZRA
COULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT GENERALLY ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN ARE POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A BAND OF STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT PASSES
OVER THE REGION. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS COULD PRODUCE A MODESTLY
STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR A 3-6HR
PERIOD TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AT LEAST THE MID/UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH LOW 60S POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST...WHILE THE PIEDMONT STRUGGLES TO RISE ABOVE THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. GENERALLY EXPECTING DRIER CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME 20-30% POPS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE N AS A
SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. DRY AND MILD
WEDNESDAY UNDER WNW FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A
COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL...BUT WITHIN -1 ST DEV. A MODERATING TREND COMMENCES LATE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WK SFC LO PRES WILL BE EXITING NC/SC CST THIS AFTN/EVE. BROAD AREA
OF SN TO MOVE ACRS MNLY SE VA/NE NC. PD OF MDT SN PSBL FM ABT
20-23Z/12...ESP AT ECG. ELSW...DRY LO LVL ATMOS XPD TO PREVENT
ANYTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES RIC-SBY.

TROUGH ALOFT TO PUSH ACRS THE RGN TNGT...PTNTL FOR SCT -SN...MNLY
INVOF SBY FM ABT 02-03Z TO 08-09Z/13. OTRW...STRONG CDFNT TO PUSH
ACRS THE RGN OVRNGT. GUSTY NW WNDS TO 25-35 KT TO DEVELOP LT
TNGT/EARLY SAT MRNG...CONTG THROUGH THE DAY SAT. VFR AND DRY WX
WILL PREVAIL SAT THROUGH SUN NGT. PCPN DEVELOPS MONDAY AS THE NEXT
WX SYS APPROACHES FROM THE W. PCPN BEGINS AS SNOW MON MRNG...MNLY
INLAND...BEFORE WARMER AIR WORKS IN AND CHANGES ANY SN TO RA FROM
SE TO NW DURING MON. RA CONTS INTO TUESDAY AS LO PRES TRACKS ACRS
THE AREA. DRY WX RETURNS WED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING ENE OFF THE NC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING
ACROSS THE ERN LAKES...WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT TRAILING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY...AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SPILLING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SN...WHICH WILL
REDUCE VSBY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (MAINLY S). AS THE LOW
LIFTS TO THE NE TONIGHT THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN
FROM THE NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF
35-40KT OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 5-8FT WITH 4-5 FT
WAVES IN THE BAY. GALE FLAGS CONTINUE FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND SPEEDS REMAIN CAPPED
AT HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME. FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED AS
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND TRACKS UP THE PIEDMONT TUESDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODESTLY STRONG SSE WIND AND BUILDING
SEAS/WAVES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES / LOW WATER ADVISORIES FOR SOME AREAS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND MUCH OF THE COASTLINES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THE MAIN AREAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THAT COULD HAVE
LOW WATER ARE ALONG THE ATLANITC COAST N OF CAPE CHARLES. A LOW
WATER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 08-13Z (3 TO 8 AM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ633-635>638.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652-654.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...MAS/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB/MPR
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 122332
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
632 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS CURRENT TIMING OF
POTENTIAL SQUALL CONDITIONS STILL LOOKS GOOD AS WV IMAGERY SHOWS
THE JET CORE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE PIVOTING OVER THE
AREA. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS NEEDED AT THIS TIME TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST OTHER THAN MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES.
PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..

SHORTWAVE PIVOTING ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING SNOW CHANCES IN THE RIDGES AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT
PASSAGE PROGGED FOR THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. BOTH HI RES AND LONGER
RANGE MODEL SOUNDINGS IN BUFKIT SUGGEST A PERIOD WHERE DEEP
MOISTURE...IN A LAYER FROM ABOUT 600MB TO 850MB...WILL BE WELL
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT EFFICIENT
SNOWFALL FOR A PERIOD...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ANTICIPATED
WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT IN UPSLOPE SNOW UNTIL THE WHOLE BOUNDARY
LAYER FALLS WELL BELOW THE GROWTH ZONE. WITH THIS IN MIND...A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE RIDGES OF PRESTON
TUCKER AND GARRETT COUNTIES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE WITH THE TIMING
OF THE SNOW SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL SQUALLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
PROGGED FOR PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE LINE TO BE INTO EASTERN
OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PA BY 00Z AND PITTSBURGH BY 03Z. VARIOUS
RUNS OF THE HRRR AND TO A LESSER DEGREE OTHER SNOW SQUALLS PROGS
SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKENING AS THE LINE COMES
ACROSS. GENERALLY ANTICIPATE A HALF TO AN INCH OF SNOW...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
AND PROVIDE FOR A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AREAWIDE UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY WITH MAXIMUM WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER APPROACHING 25
TO 35KTS. THIS...ADDED TO TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILL VALUES WELL BELOW ZERO. THIS
SUPPORTS THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY THAT WAS ISSUED. 40MPH WIND
GUSTS OVERNIGHT IN THE RIDGES WILL ALLOW VALUES TO GET VERY CLOSE
TO WARNING CRITERIA BUT AT THIS POINT...THE WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO AN ADVISORY WITH SOME -25 VALUES POSSIBLE IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN OF TUCKER COUNTY.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SEVERAL DUAL-LAKE SNOW BANDS. THE LATEST
ITERATION OF MODELS HAS THE MORE PROMINENT BAND SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
SOUTH FROM LAST NIGHT SO WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE ACTUAL PLACEMENT
OF SNOW BANDS...HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH
FOR VENANGO COUNTY TO AN ADVISORY FOR MERCER...VENANGO...AND
FOREST COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL LAKE PLUMES MAY SUPPORT SNOW BEYOND
THESE ADVISORIES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY
IN THEIR PLACEMENT...NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES WERE ADDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AND SHIFT
NORTHWARD AS A SURFACE RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD OVERHEAD FOR
SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE WIND TO BACK OFF...WITH WIND
CHILL CONCERNS DIMINISHING IN OHIO. HOWEVER...WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE AND LIGHT WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL CLOSE TO OR BELOW
ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT...SO ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN AS IS FOR THE REST
OF THE CWA UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A FEW
DEGREES ON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SCATTERING
OF THE CLOUDS. TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
BOTH PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE
MONDAY. BY LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS STILL DIFFER
ON EXACT TRACK BUT SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...BUT ALSO POTENTIAL FOR A MIX WITH
RAIN OR ALL RAIN WHERE BETTER QPF IS FORECAST. FOR NOW HAVE NOT
STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST ALTHOUGH EVEN THE WARMER ECMWF
WRAPS COLD AIR BACK IN LATER TUESDAY SO HAVE KEPT MAINLY SNOW.

SYSTEM EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY FAST MOVING
CLIPPER SYSTEM WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL DELIVER ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW
SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF COLD AIR. HEIGHTS ALOFT THEN
BEGIN TO RISE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH STRONG WARM
ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOST IMPORTANT FEATURE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE TAFS WILL BE
THE ARRIVAL OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AT
CLEVELAND SHOW 1/4SM VISIBILITY WITH HEAVY SNOW AND NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS TO 30KT. ALTHOUGH THE LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT
WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES INLAND OFF LAKE ERIE...STILL
THINK THAT WIDESPREAD 1/2 TO 1 MILE VISIBILITIES AND WIND GUSTS TO
25-30KT ARE POSSIBLE AT EACH TERMINAL AS THE LINE MOVES THROUGH.
THIS LINE SHOULD HAVE MOVED THROUGH ALL LOCAL TERMINALS BY
06Z.

ALTHOUGH SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT AT MOST TERMINALS...FKL IS LIKELY TO BE THE
TERMINAL WITH THE LOWEST FLIGHT CONDITIONS DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF
A LAKE HURON- ERIE SNOWBAND TO SET UP WITH NORTHWEST WINDS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THERE THROUGH MUCH OF
SATURDAY. ZZV COULD MANAGE TO EITHER SCATTER OUT OR HAVE CEILINGS
LIFT TO VFR ON SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE BEHIND
THE FRONT AND SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR OHZ039-048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ007>009.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR WVZ003-004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WVZ001-002-021-509>514.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     WVZ512>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 122332
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
632 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS CURRENT TIMING OF
POTENTIAL SQUALL CONDITIONS STILL LOOKS GOOD AS WV IMAGERY SHOWS
THE JET CORE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE PIVOTING OVER THE
AREA. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS NEEDED AT THIS TIME TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST OTHER THAN MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES.
PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..

SHORTWAVE PIVOTING ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING SNOW CHANCES IN THE RIDGES AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT
PASSAGE PROGGED FOR THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. BOTH HI RES AND LONGER
RANGE MODEL SOUNDINGS IN BUFKIT SUGGEST A PERIOD WHERE DEEP
MOISTURE...IN A LAYER FROM ABOUT 600MB TO 850MB...WILL BE WELL
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT EFFICIENT
SNOWFALL FOR A PERIOD...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ANTICIPATED
WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT IN UPSLOPE SNOW UNTIL THE WHOLE BOUNDARY
LAYER FALLS WELL BELOW THE GROWTH ZONE. WITH THIS IN MIND...A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE RIDGES OF PRESTON
TUCKER AND GARRETT COUNTIES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE WITH THE TIMING
OF THE SNOW SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL SQUALLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
PROGGED FOR PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE LINE TO BE INTO EASTERN
OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PA BY 00Z AND PITTSBURGH BY 03Z. VARIOUS
RUNS OF THE HRRR AND TO A LESSER DEGREE OTHER SNOW SQUALLS PROGS
SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKENING AS THE LINE COMES
ACROSS. GENERALLY ANTICIPATE A HALF TO AN INCH OF SNOW...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
AND PROVIDE FOR A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AREAWIDE UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY WITH MAXIMUM WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER APPROACHING 25
TO 35KTS. THIS...ADDED TO TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILL VALUES WELL BELOW ZERO. THIS
SUPPORTS THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY THAT WAS ISSUED. 40MPH WIND
GUSTS OVERNIGHT IN THE RIDGES WILL ALLOW VALUES TO GET VERY CLOSE
TO WARNING CRITERIA BUT AT THIS POINT...THE WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO AN ADVISORY WITH SOME -25 VALUES POSSIBLE IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN OF TUCKER COUNTY.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SEVERAL DUAL-LAKE SNOW BANDS. THE LATEST
ITERATION OF MODELS HAS THE MORE PROMINENT BAND SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
SOUTH FROM LAST NIGHT SO WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE ACTUAL PLACEMENT
OF SNOW BANDS...HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH
FOR VENANGO COUNTY TO AN ADVISORY FOR MERCER...VENANGO...AND
FOREST COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL LAKE PLUMES MAY SUPPORT SNOW BEYOND
THESE ADVISORIES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY
IN THEIR PLACEMENT...NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES WERE ADDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AND SHIFT
NORTHWARD AS A SURFACE RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD OVERHEAD FOR
SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE WIND TO BACK OFF...WITH WIND
CHILL CONCERNS DIMINISHING IN OHIO. HOWEVER...WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE AND LIGHT WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL CLOSE TO OR BELOW
ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT...SO ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN AS IS FOR THE REST
OF THE CWA UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A FEW
DEGREES ON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SCATTERING
OF THE CLOUDS. TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
BOTH PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE
MONDAY. BY LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS STILL DIFFER
ON EXACT TRACK BUT SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...BUT ALSO POTENTIAL FOR A MIX WITH
RAIN OR ALL RAIN WHERE BETTER QPF IS FORECAST. FOR NOW HAVE NOT
STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST ALTHOUGH EVEN THE WARMER ECMWF
WRAPS COLD AIR BACK IN LATER TUESDAY SO HAVE KEPT MAINLY SNOW.

SYSTEM EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY FAST MOVING
CLIPPER SYSTEM WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL DELIVER ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW
SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF COLD AIR. HEIGHTS ALOFT THEN
BEGIN TO RISE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH STRONG WARM
ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOST IMPORTANT FEATURE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE TAFS WILL BE
THE ARRIVAL OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AT
CLEVELAND SHOW 1/4SM VISIBILITY WITH HEAVY SNOW AND NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS TO 30KT. ALTHOUGH THE LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT
WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES INLAND OFF LAKE ERIE...STILL
THINK THAT WIDESPREAD 1/2 TO 1 MILE VISIBILITIES AND WIND GUSTS TO
25-30KT ARE POSSIBLE AT EACH TERMINAL AS THE LINE MOVES THROUGH.
THIS LINE SHOULD HAVE MOVED THROUGH ALL LOCAL TERMINALS BY
06Z.

ALTHOUGH SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT AT MOST TERMINALS...FKL IS LIKELY TO BE THE
TERMINAL WITH THE LOWEST FLIGHT CONDITIONS DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF
A LAKE HURON- ERIE SNOWBAND TO SET UP WITH NORTHWEST WINDS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THERE THROUGH MUCH OF
SATURDAY. ZZV COULD MANAGE TO EITHER SCATTER OUT OR HAVE CEILINGS
LIFT TO VFR ON SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE BEHIND
THE FRONT AND SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR OHZ039-048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ007>009.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR WVZ003-004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WVZ001-002-021-509>514.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     WVZ512>514.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 122332
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
632 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS CURRENT TIMING OF
POTENTIAL SQUALL CONDITIONS STILL LOOKS GOOD AS WV IMAGERY SHOWS
THE JET CORE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE PIVOTING OVER THE
AREA. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS NEEDED AT THIS TIME TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST OTHER THAN MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES.
PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..

SHORTWAVE PIVOTING ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING SNOW CHANCES IN THE RIDGES AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT
PASSAGE PROGGED FOR THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. BOTH HI RES AND LONGER
RANGE MODEL SOUNDINGS IN BUFKIT SUGGEST A PERIOD WHERE DEEP
MOISTURE...IN A LAYER FROM ABOUT 600MB TO 850MB...WILL BE WELL
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT EFFICIENT
SNOWFALL FOR A PERIOD...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ANTICIPATED
WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT IN UPSLOPE SNOW UNTIL THE WHOLE BOUNDARY
LAYER FALLS WELL BELOW THE GROWTH ZONE. WITH THIS IN MIND...A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE RIDGES OF PRESTON
TUCKER AND GARRETT COUNTIES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE WITH THE TIMING
OF THE SNOW SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL SQUALLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
PROGGED FOR PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE LINE TO BE INTO EASTERN
OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PA BY 00Z AND PITTSBURGH BY 03Z. VARIOUS
RUNS OF THE HRRR AND TO A LESSER DEGREE OTHER SNOW SQUALLS PROGS
SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKENING AS THE LINE COMES
ACROSS. GENERALLY ANTICIPATE A HALF TO AN INCH OF SNOW...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
AND PROVIDE FOR A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AREAWIDE UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY WITH MAXIMUM WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER APPROACHING 25
TO 35KTS. THIS...ADDED TO TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILL VALUES WELL BELOW ZERO. THIS
SUPPORTS THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY THAT WAS ISSUED. 40MPH WIND
GUSTS OVERNIGHT IN THE RIDGES WILL ALLOW VALUES TO GET VERY CLOSE
TO WARNING CRITERIA BUT AT THIS POINT...THE WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO AN ADVISORY WITH SOME -25 VALUES POSSIBLE IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN OF TUCKER COUNTY.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SEVERAL DUAL-LAKE SNOW BANDS. THE LATEST
ITERATION OF MODELS HAS THE MORE PROMINENT BAND SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
SOUTH FROM LAST NIGHT SO WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE ACTUAL PLACEMENT
OF SNOW BANDS...HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH
FOR VENANGO COUNTY TO AN ADVISORY FOR MERCER...VENANGO...AND
FOREST COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL LAKE PLUMES MAY SUPPORT SNOW BEYOND
THESE ADVISORIES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY
IN THEIR PLACEMENT...NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES WERE ADDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AND SHIFT
NORTHWARD AS A SURFACE RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD OVERHEAD FOR
SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE WIND TO BACK OFF...WITH WIND
CHILL CONCERNS DIMINISHING IN OHIO. HOWEVER...WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE AND LIGHT WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL CLOSE TO OR BELOW
ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT...SO ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN AS IS FOR THE REST
OF THE CWA UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A FEW
DEGREES ON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SCATTERING
OF THE CLOUDS. TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
BOTH PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE
MONDAY. BY LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS STILL DIFFER
ON EXACT TRACK BUT SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...BUT ALSO POTENTIAL FOR A MIX WITH
RAIN OR ALL RAIN WHERE BETTER QPF IS FORECAST. FOR NOW HAVE NOT
STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST ALTHOUGH EVEN THE WARMER ECMWF
WRAPS COLD AIR BACK IN LATER TUESDAY SO HAVE KEPT MAINLY SNOW.

SYSTEM EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY FAST MOVING
CLIPPER SYSTEM WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL DELIVER ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW
SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF COLD AIR. HEIGHTS ALOFT THEN
BEGIN TO RISE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH STRONG WARM
ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOST IMPORTANT FEATURE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE TAFS WILL BE
THE ARRIVAL OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AT
CLEVELAND SHOW 1/4SM VISIBILITY WITH HEAVY SNOW AND NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS TO 30KT. ALTHOUGH THE LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT
WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES INLAND OFF LAKE ERIE...STILL
THINK THAT WIDESPREAD 1/2 TO 1 MILE VISIBILITIES AND WIND GUSTS TO
25-30KT ARE POSSIBLE AT EACH TERMINAL AS THE LINE MOVES THROUGH.
THIS LINE SHOULD HAVE MOVED THROUGH ALL LOCAL TERMINALS BY
06Z.

ALTHOUGH SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT AT MOST TERMINALS...FKL IS LIKELY TO BE THE
TERMINAL WITH THE LOWEST FLIGHT CONDITIONS DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF
A LAKE HURON- ERIE SNOWBAND TO SET UP WITH NORTHWEST WINDS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THERE THROUGH MUCH OF
SATURDAY. ZZV COULD MANAGE TO EITHER SCATTER OUT OR HAVE CEILINGS
LIFT TO VFR ON SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE BEHIND
THE FRONT AND SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR OHZ039-048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ007>009.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR WVZ003-004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WVZ001-002-021-509>514.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     WVZ512>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPHI 122326
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
626 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS WEEKEND AND THEN MOVE EAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MONDAY AND THEN MOVE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS TUESDAY AND THEN
NORTH INTO CANADA WEDNESDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...SHALLOW MOIST ADVECTION ON S-SW FLOW PRIOR TO THE CFP.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED SOME ENHANCED ECHOES...SNOW SHOWERS...ACRS
SERN PA,NRN DE, SRN DE. HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT ERLY, THOUGH
MOST OF THE ECHOES LIKELY NOT REACHING THE GROUND.

SW WIND MAY GUST 15 MPH EARLY TONIGHT. THEN A WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST AND GUSTY 20-30 MPH BY DAWN SATURDAY....POSSIBLE
ISOLATED GUSTS 40-45 MPH AT SUNRISE PER ARRIVING STRONG CAA AND
PRES RISES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WIND CHILL ADVY AND WIND ADVY POSTED IN ADDITION TO PRIOR WIND
CHILL WARNING.  SPS FROM YDY NO LONGER NEEDED.

DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER MOMENTUM TRANSFER IS FEATURED ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ONCOMING ARCTIC AIRMASS INVASION. LARGE LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES AND BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER INDICATING A POSSIBILITY OF
FLURRIES OR SQUALLS BUT WILL THE SFC TT/TD SPREAD EXCEED 25F AND
MAKE THOSE SQUALLS JUST VIRGA? SEEMS LIKE BEST CHC FOR A SQUALL
WOULD BE THE MORNING AND IN THE REGION S OF THE PA TURNPIKE.

AM THINKING OF GUSTS 50 MPH IN THE POCONOS AND ALSO SCATTERED 50
MPH GUSTS DEVELOPING IN THE KRDG-KPHL-KILG KACY AND NORTH SIDE OF
DE BAY SLOT FOR THE AFTN. WIND ADVY ISSUED. NOT SURE HOW MANY
NOTICED BUT THE NAM AND OP ECMWF HAVE BEEN A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE
ON WIND. JUST LOOKS LIKE TOO DEEP A MIXED LAYER TO AVOID CONNECTING
A FEW EDDIES OF 50 KT GUSTS DOWN FROM 6000 TO 7000 FT ALOFT. THE
INVERSION SINKS TO NEAR 850 MB LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY.

STRONGEST WINDS ASIDE FROM THE INITIAL BURST NEAR 11-12Z, MAY BE
LATE AFTN AND EVENING. FOR NOW WANTED TO LIMIT ADVY ONLY TO THE
DAY AND IF ITS GUSTING 40 KT AT 3 PM SATURDAY, THEN SUSPECT IT CAN
GUST 40-45 KT THROUGH 10 PM. CONFIDENCE ON VERIFICATION IS
AVERAGE. THIS COULD BE OVERDONE BUT HAVE SEEN REPEATEDLY THE POCS
WIND MATCH THE OVERWATER WIND NEAR 44065, AND NW FLOW STRONGEST
GUSTS NEAR A RDG-PHL LINE. ALSO ADDED MD E SHORE ALONG THE STILL
WARM CHES BAY AND DELAWARE ALONG THE BAY FROM WILMINGTON TO LEWES
WHERE I THINK SOME HEFTY GUSTS COULD ADD TO THE CHILL.

OTHERWISE WIDESPREAD GUSTS 40 MPH SATURDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES .. TENDING TO CLEAR LATE DAY.

WINDS WERE DERIVED FROM THE GFS, THE TEMPS FROM THE NAM MOS BLENDED
WITH THE 2M TEMPS OF THE 12Z GFS/NAM. HRRX INDICATED NEAR 0 AT KMPO
AT 17Z SATURDAY...WITHOUT A WIND CHILL. CANT SEE IT MORE THAN 17F
AT PHL AT 18Z SAT...MAYBE EVEN A DEGREE OR 2 COLDER?.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE HEART OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL
READINGS WILL BE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES SAT NIGHT AROUND -10 ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND CLOSER TO
5 DEGREES ACROSS THE METRO PHILLY AREAS AND OVER THE DELMARVA. HIGH
TEMPS SUNDAY IN THE TEENS MOST AREAS...BUT SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE
SRN POCONOS. WIND CHILL READINGS -20 TO -32 FAR NORTH AND -5 TO -10
OVER THE DELMARVA.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE SOUTH MONDAY AND MOVE
UP THE INLAND EAST COAST TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM
THAT SEEMS TO BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AMONGST THE OP MODELS
FAVOR A LOW TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN PART OF OUR AREA. THIS
WILL ALLOW A DECENT FLOW OF WARMER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AS SNOW...BUT WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN LATER MON NIGHT AND REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN TUESDAY. THE
QPF COULD BE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN MANY AREAS. THERE IS ALSO
SOME CHC FOR AN ACCUMULATING SNOW MONDAY ACROSS (MOST LIKELY)
ERN/NERN PA BEFORE THE CHANGE TO RAIN. EARLIEST PREDICTIONS FOR SNOW
ACCUMS WOULD BE AROUND 1-3 INCHES AT THIS POINT. THE DETAILS WILL BE
TUNED UP AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES.

THE STORM MOVES UP INTO CANADA WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER COOLER AIR FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE. HOWEVER, BASED ON LATEST RADAR SHOWING
SOME ENHANCED ECHOES, HAVE MOVED UP THE TIMING OF THE SHSN. MUCH
OF ACTIVITY IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND, BUT AS CLOSE AS KPNE IS
REPORTING SOME -SN. SO FAR THE SHSN HAS BEEN LIGHT ENOUGH TO BE
VFR. HOWEVER, SOME MVFR CAN NOT BE RULED OUT, AND WILL CONTINUE TO
INCLUDE IN THE FCSTS.

SATURDAY...THE BIGGEST ISSUE AFFECTING AVIATION TRAVEL ON
SATURDAY WILL BE THE WINDS. BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT,
THE WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST AND BECOME
VERY GUSTY. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15-20 KNOTS BY 12-15Z
AND INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS FROM 25 KNOTS EARLY
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 40 KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST
WINDS 10 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 30-35 KNOTS EARLY, DIMINISHING
SOME OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GUSTS STILL 20-25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...DEGRADING CONDITIONS WITH MVFR/IFR LIKELY
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW POSSIBLY
BEGINNING MONDAY FOR MANY AREAS, POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN AT
TIMES FOR SOME AREAS.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. WINDY.

WEDNESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS. WINDY.

&&

.MARINE...
LULL IN THE WIND AND SEAS WILL END SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

GALES AND FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS-ADVISORIES POSTED. THE HEAVIEST
FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE MIDNIGHT TO 7 AM ALONG THE SHORE WHERE SSTS
NOW DOWN TO ABOUT 35-36F AND USED 35 FOR THE ZY THRESHOLD.

ISOLATED 50 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE SATURDAY IN FUNNELED NW WIND DOWN DE
BAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING CONTINUES WITH STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT AS VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING AND FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE DAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
LIKELY...GALES POSSIBLE AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EAST
COAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BEFORE EVERYONE HEADS INTO THE WEEKEND, I WANTED TO BRING NEXT
WEEK`S STORM INTO LIGHT AND MENTION THAT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING ACROSS THE HSA. THERE`S STILL A LOT THAT NEEDS TO UNFOLD,
BUT THE 5-DAY WPC QPF OF 1.50 TO 2.50 INCHES OF LIQUID COMBINED WITH
ANOTHER 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF SWE ON THE GROUND WOULD VERY LIKELY
CAUSE NUISANCE LOW-LYING FLOODING AND POSSIBLY SOME MINOR TO
MODERATE RIVER FLOODING (RIVERS ASSOCIATED WITH OUR FORECAST
POINTS). THIS ASSUMES MOST, IF NOT ALL, THE PRECIPITATION FALLS AS
RAIN.

THE UNCERTAINTY THIS AFTERNOON IS LARGE. YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME, THE
PRECIPITATION WAS HEAVIEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. NOW IT`S LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BESIDES TIMING, TRACK IS QUITE DIFFERENT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO WITH THE EURO BEING FURTHER WEST AND MORE
LIQUIDY. TRACK WILL PLAY A ROLE IN TEMPS AND NOT ONLY AFFECT WHAT
TYPE OF PRECIPITATION FALLS, BUT ALSO AFFECT WHAT REMAINING SWE
MELTS. THERE`S ABOUT 0.25 TO 0.50 SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA. I CAN
SAY WE ARE IN A BETTER SPOT THAN ON THE 3RD AND 4TH WHEN THERE WAS
IN EXCESS OF 2.00 OF SWE ALONG THE I-78 CORRIDOR. AS AN FYI, ONE OF
THE MAIN REASONS WE DIDN`T SEE THE FLOODING, THAT MODELS SUGGESTED,
ON THE 3RD AND 4TH WAS BECAUSE ALL THE SWE DID NOT RAPIDLY COME OUT
OF THE SNOWPACK. SNOWMELT CAN BE A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK.

WHILE THE LACK OF SWE IS LOOKING BETTER ACROSS THE HSA, NOT ALL THE
RIVERS HAVE RECEDED BACK TO WHERE THEY WERE PRIOR TO THE 3RD. SO
RIVERS WILL START HIGHER AND THE COLD THIS WEEKEND WILL SURELY GET
THE GROUND HARD FOR A VERY EFFICIENT RUNOFF.

SO THE TAKE AWAY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND IS TO UNDERSTAND THAT IF
THE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY (OR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY) EVENT IS ALL
LIQUID ACROSS THE AREA, LOW-LYING, POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS LIKELY
AND MINOR TO MODERATE RIVER FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. IF THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS OFF AS SNOW OR ICE, THE FLOODING THREAT
DECREASES. IF ALL SNOW FALLS, WE`RE POTENTIALLY JUST KICKING THE CAN
DOWN THE ROAD FOR FUTURE FLOODING. TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS STILL EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING, DESPITE THE MOS GUIDANCE...AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON SO FAR.

BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY:
KABE, KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE 14TH,
IF THEN. THOSE HAVE BEEN ADDED RECENTLY BELOW.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH ----RER LOW MAX
---------------------- --------------------

ABE             8                         -1 IN 1979     14-1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979     13-1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979     14-1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979     13-1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     060-061-070-071-101>106.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NJZ007>010-012>027.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NJZ001-014-
     016>027.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NJZ001.
DE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     DEZ001-002.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     MDZ008-012.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-020.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO 9
     AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ430-431-454-455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 122326
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
626 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS WEEKEND AND THEN MOVE EAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MONDAY AND THEN MOVE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS TUESDAY AND THEN
NORTH INTO CANADA WEDNESDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...SHALLOW MOIST ADVECTION ON S-SW FLOW PRIOR TO THE CFP.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED SOME ENHANCED ECHOES...SNOW SHOWERS...ACRS
SERN PA,NRN DE, SRN DE. HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT ERLY, THOUGH
MOST OF THE ECHOES LIKELY NOT REACHING THE GROUND.

SW WIND MAY GUST 15 MPH EARLY TONIGHT. THEN A WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST AND GUSTY 20-30 MPH BY DAWN SATURDAY....POSSIBLE
ISOLATED GUSTS 40-45 MPH AT SUNRISE PER ARRIVING STRONG CAA AND
PRES RISES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WIND CHILL ADVY AND WIND ADVY POSTED IN ADDITION TO PRIOR WIND
CHILL WARNING.  SPS FROM YDY NO LONGER NEEDED.

DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER MOMENTUM TRANSFER IS FEATURED ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ONCOMING ARCTIC AIRMASS INVASION. LARGE LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES AND BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER INDICATING A POSSIBILITY OF
FLURRIES OR SQUALLS BUT WILL THE SFC TT/TD SPREAD EXCEED 25F AND
MAKE THOSE SQUALLS JUST VIRGA? SEEMS LIKE BEST CHC FOR A SQUALL
WOULD BE THE MORNING AND IN THE REGION S OF THE PA TURNPIKE.

AM THINKING OF GUSTS 50 MPH IN THE POCONOS AND ALSO SCATTERED 50
MPH GUSTS DEVELOPING IN THE KRDG-KPHL-KILG KACY AND NORTH SIDE OF
DE BAY SLOT FOR THE AFTN. WIND ADVY ISSUED. NOT SURE HOW MANY
NOTICED BUT THE NAM AND OP ECMWF HAVE BEEN A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE
ON WIND. JUST LOOKS LIKE TOO DEEP A MIXED LAYER TO AVOID CONNECTING
A FEW EDDIES OF 50 KT GUSTS DOWN FROM 6000 TO 7000 FT ALOFT. THE
INVERSION SINKS TO NEAR 850 MB LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY.

STRONGEST WINDS ASIDE FROM THE INITIAL BURST NEAR 11-12Z, MAY BE
LATE AFTN AND EVENING. FOR NOW WANTED TO LIMIT ADVY ONLY TO THE
DAY AND IF ITS GUSTING 40 KT AT 3 PM SATURDAY, THEN SUSPECT IT CAN
GUST 40-45 KT THROUGH 10 PM. CONFIDENCE ON VERIFICATION IS
AVERAGE. THIS COULD BE OVERDONE BUT HAVE SEEN REPEATEDLY THE POCS
WIND MATCH THE OVERWATER WIND NEAR 44065, AND NW FLOW STRONGEST
GUSTS NEAR A RDG-PHL LINE. ALSO ADDED MD E SHORE ALONG THE STILL
WARM CHES BAY AND DELAWARE ALONG THE BAY FROM WILMINGTON TO LEWES
WHERE I THINK SOME HEFTY GUSTS COULD ADD TO THE CHILL.

OTHERWISE WIDESPREAD GUSTS 40 MPH SATURDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES .. TENDING TO CLEAR LATE DAY.

WINDS WERE DERIVED FROM THE GFS, THE TEMPS FROM THE NAM MOS BLENDED
WITH THE 2M TEMPS OF THE 12Z GFS/NAM. HRRX INDICATED NEAR 0 AT KMPO
AT 17Z SATURDAY...WITHOUT A WIND CHILL. CANT SEE IT MORE THAN 17F
AT PHL AT 18Z SAT...MAYBE EVEN A DEGREE OR 2 COLDER?.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE HEART OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL
READINGS WILL BE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES SAT NIGHT AROUND -10 ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND CLOSER TO
5 DEGREES ACROSS THE METRO PHILLY AREAS AND OVER THE DELMARVA. HIGH
TEMPS SUNDAY IN THE TEENS MOST AREAS...BUT SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE
SRN POCONOS. WIND CHILL READINGS -20 TO -32 FAR NORTH AND -5 TO -10
OVER THE DELMARVA.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE SOUTH MONDAY AND MOVE
UP THE INLAND EAST COAST TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM
THAT SEEMS TO BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AMONGST THE OP MODELS
FAVOR A LOW TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN PART OF OUR AREA. THIS
WILL ALLOW A DECENT FLOW OF WARMER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AS SNOW...BUT WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN LATER MON NIGHT AND REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN TUESDAY. THE
QPF COULD BE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN MANY AREAS. THERE IS ALSO
SOME CHC FOR AN ACCUMULATING SNOW MONDAY ACROSS (MOST LIKELY)
ERN/NERN PA BEFORE THE CHANGE TO RAIN. EARLIEST PREDICTIONS FOR SNOW
ACCUMS WOULD BE AROUND 1-3 INCHES AT THIS POINT. THE DETAILS WILL BE
TUNED UP AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES.

THE STORM MOVES UP INTO CANADA WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER COOLER AIR FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE. HOWEVER, BASED ON LATEST RADAR SHOWING
SOME ENHANCED ECHOES, HAVE MOVED UP THE TIMING OF THE SHSN. MUCH
OF ACTIVITY IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND, BUT AS CLOSE AS KPNE IS
REPORTING SOME -SN. SO FAR THE SHSN HAS BEEN LIGHT ENOUGH TO BE
VFR. HOWEVER, SOME MVFR CAN NOT BE RULED OUT, AND WILL CONTINUE TO
INCLUDE IN THE FCSTS.

SATURDAY...THE BIGGEST ISSUE AFFECTING AVIATION TRAVEL ON
SATURDAY WILL BE THE WINDS. BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT,
THE WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST AND BECOME
VERY GUSTY. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15-20 KNOTS BY 12-15Z
AND INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS FROM 25 KNOTS EARLY
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 40 KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST
WINDS 10 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 30-35 KNOTS EARLY, DIMINISHING
SOME OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GUSTS STILL 20-25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...DEGRADING CONDITIONS WITH MVFR/IFR LIKELY
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW POSSIBLY
BEGINNING MONDAY FOR MANY AREAS, POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN AT
TIMES FOR SOME AREAS.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. WINDY.

WEDNESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS. WINDY.

&&

.MARINE...
LULL IN THE WIND AND SEAS WILL END SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

GALES AND FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS-ADVISORIES POSTED. THE HEAVIEST
FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE MIDNIGHT TO 7 AM ALONG THE SHORE WHERE SSTS
NOW DOWN TO ABOUT 35-36F AND USED 35 FOR THE ZY THRESHOLD.

ISOLATED 50 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE SATURDAY IN FUNNELED NW WIND DOWN DE
BAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING CONTINUES WITH STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT AS VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING AND FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE DAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
LIKELY...GALES POSSIBLE AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EAST
COAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BEFORE EVERYONE HEADS INTO THE WEEKEND, I WANTED TO BRING NEXT
WEEK`S STORM INTO LIGHT AND MENTION THAT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING ACROSS THE HSA. THERE`S STILL A LOT THAT NEEDS TO UNFOLD,
BUT THE 5-DAY WPC QPF OF 1.50 TO 2.50 INCHES OF LIQUID COMBINED WITH
ANOTHER 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF SWE ON THE GROUND WOULD VERY LIKELY
CAUSE NUISANCE LOW-LYING FLOODING AND POSSIBLY SOME MINOR TO
MODERATE RIVER FLOODING (RIVERS ASSOCIATED WITH OUR FORECAST
POINTS). THIS ASSUMES MOST, IF NOT ALL, THE PRECIPITATION FALLS AS
RAIN.

THE UNCERTAINTY THIS AFTERNOON IS LARGE. YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME, THE
PRECIPITATION WAS HEAVIEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. NOW IT`S LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BESIDES TIMING, TRACK IS QUITE DIFFERENT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO WITH THE EURO BEING FURTHER WEST AND MORE
LIQUIDY. TRACK WILL PLAY A ROLE IN TEMPS AND NOT ONLY AFFECT WHAT
TYPE OF PRECIPITATION FALLS, BUT ALSO AFFECT WHAT REMAINING SWE
MELTS. THERE`S ABOUT 0.25 TO 0.50 SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA. I CAN
SAY WE ARE IN A BETTER SPOT THAN ON THE 3RD AND 4TH WHEN THERE WAS
IN EXCESS OF 2.00 OF SWE ALONG THE I-78 CORRIDOR. AS AN FYI, ONE OF
THE MAIN REASONS WE DIDN`T SEE THE FLOODING, THAT MODELS SUGGESTED,
ON THE 3RD AND 4TH WAS BECAUSE ALL THE SWE DID NOT RAPIDLY COME OUT
OF THE SNOWPACK. SNOWMELT CAN BE A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK.

WHILE THE LACK OF SWE IS LOOKING BETTER ACROSS THE HSA, NOT ALL THE
RIVERS HAVE RECEDED BACK TO WHERE THEY WERE PRIOR TO THE 3RD. SO
RIVERS WILL START HIGHER AND THE COLD THIS WEEKEND WILL SURELY GET
THE GROUND HARD FOR A VERY EFFICIENT RUNOFF.

SO THE TAKE AWAY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND IS TO UNDERSTAND THAT IF
THE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY (OR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY) EVENT IS ALL
LIQUID ACROSS THE AREA, LOW-LYING, POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS LIKELY
AND MINOR TO MODERATE RIVER FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. IF THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS OFF AS SNOW OR ICE, THE FLOODING THREAT
DECREASES. IF ALL SNOW FALLS, WE`RE POTENTIALLY JUST KICKING THE CAN
DOWN THE ROAD FOR FUTURE FLOODING. TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS STILL EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING, DESPITE THE MOS GUIDANCE...AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON SO FAR.

BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY:
KABE, KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE 14TH,
IF THEN. THOSE HAVE BEEN ADDED RECENTLY BELOW.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH ----RER LOW MAX
---------------------- --------------------

ABE             8                         -1 IN 1979     14-1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979     13-1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979     14-1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979     13-1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     060-061-070-071-101>106.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NJZ007>010-012>027.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NJZ001-014-
     016>027.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NJZ001.
DE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     DEZ001-002.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     MDZ008-012.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-020.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO 9
     AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ430-431-454-455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 122326
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
626 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS WEEKEND AND THEN MOVE EAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MONDAY AND THEN MOVE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS TUESDAY AND THEN
NORTH INTO CANADA WEDNESDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...SHALLOW MOIST ADVECTION ON S-SW FLOW PRIOR TO THE CFP.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED SOME ENHANCED ECHOES...SNOW SHOWERS...ACRS
SERN PA,NRN DE, SRN DE. HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT ERLY, THOUGH
MOST OF THE ECHOES LIKELY NOT REACHING THE GROUND.

SW WIND MAY GUST 15 MPH EARLY TONIGHT. THEN A WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST AND GUSTY 20-30 MPH BY DAWN SATURDAY....POSSIBLE
ISOLATED GUSTS 40-45 MPH AT SUNRISE PER ARRIVING STRONG CAA AND
PRES RISES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WIND CHILL ADVY AND WIND ADVY POSTED IN ADDITION TO PRIOR WIND
CHILL WARNING.  SPS FROM YDY NO LONGER NEEDED.

DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER MOMENTUM TRANSFER IS FEATURED ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ONCOMING ARCTIC AIRMASS INVASION. LARGE LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES AND BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER INDICATING A POSSIBILITY OF
FLURRIES OR SQUALLS BUT WILL THE SFC TT/TD SPREAD EXCEED 25F AND
MAKE THOSE SQUALLS JUST VIRGA? SEEMS LIKE BEST CHC FOR A SQUALL
WOULD BE THE MORNING AND IN THE REGION S OF THE PA TURNPIKE.

AM THINKING OF GUSTS 50 MPH IN THE POCONOS AND ALSO SCATTERED 50
MPH GUSTS DEVELOPING IN THE KRDG-KPHL-KILG KACY AND NORTH SIDE OF
DE BAY SLOT FOR THE AFTN. WIND ADVY ISSUED. NOT SURE HOW MANY
NOTICED BUT THE NAM AND OP ECMWF HAVE BEEN A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE
ON WIND. JUST LOOKS LIKE TOO DEEP A MIXED LAYER TO AVOID CONNECTING
A FEW EDDIES OF 50 KT GUSTS DOWN FROM 6000 TO 7000 FT ALOFT. THE
INVERSION SINKS TO NEAR 850 MB LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY.

STRONGEST WINDS ASIDE FROM THE INITIAL BURST NEAR 11-12Z, MAY BE
LATE AFTN AND EVENING. FOR NOW WANTED TO LIMIT ADVY ONLY TO THE
DAY AND IF ITS GUSTING 40 KT AT 3 PM SATURDAY, THEN SUSPECT IT CAN
GUST 40-45 KT THROUGH 10 PM. CONFIDENCE ON VERIFICATION IS
AVERAGE. THIS COULD BE OVERDONE BUT HAVE SEEN REPEATEDLY THE POCS
WIND MATCH THE OVERWATER WIND NEAR 44065, AND NW FLOW STRONGEST
GUSTS NEAR A RDG-PHL LINE. ALSO ADDED MD E SHORE ALONG THE STILL
WARM CHES BAY AND DELAWARE ALONG THE BAY FROM WILMINGTON TO LEWES
WHERE I THINK SOME HEFTY GUSTS COULD ADD TO THE CHILL.

OTHERWISE WIDESPREAD GUSTS 40 MPH SATURDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES .. TENDING TO CLEAR LATE DAY.

WINDS WERE DERIVED FROM THE GFS, THE TEMPS FROM THE NAM MOS BLENDED
WITH THE 2M TEMPS OF THE 12Z GFS/NAM. HRRX INDICATED NEAR 0 AT KMPO
AT 17Z SATURDAY...WITHOUT A WIND CHILL. CANT SEE IT MORE THAN 17F
AT PHL AT 18Z SAT...MAYBE EVEN A DEGREE OR 2 COLDER?.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE HEART OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL
READINGS WILL BE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES SAT NIGHT AROUND -10 ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND CLOSER TO
5 DEGREES ACROSS THE METRO PHILLY AREAS AND OVER THE DELMARVA. HIGH
TEMPS SUNDAY IN THE TEENS MOST AREAS...BUT SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE
SRN POCONOS. WIND CHILL READINGS -20 TO -32 FAR NORTH AND -5 TO -10
OVER THE DELMARVA.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE SOUTH MONDAY AND MOVE
UP THE INLAND EAST COAST TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM
THAT SEEMS TO BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AMONGST THE OP MODELS
FAVOR A LOW TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN PART OF OUR AREA. THIS
WILL ALLOW A DECENT FLOW OF WARMER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AS SNOW...BUT WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN LATER MON NIGHT AND REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN TUESDAY. THE
QPF COULD BE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN MANY AREAS. THERE IS ALSO
SOME CHC FOR AN ACCUMULATING SNOW MONDAY ACROSS (MOST LIKELY)
ERN/NERN PA BEFORE THE CHANGE TO RAIN. EARLIEST PREDICTIONS FOR SNOW
ACCUMS WOULD BE AROUND 1-3 INCHES AT THIS POINT. THE DETAILS WILL BE
TUNED UP AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES.

THE STORM MOVES UP INTO CANADA WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER COOLER AIR FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE. HOWEVER, BASED ON LATEST RADAR SHOWING
SOME ENHANCED ECHOES, HAVE MOVED UP THE TIMING OF THE SHSN. MUCH
OF ACTIVITY IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND, BUT AS CLOSE AS KPNE IS
REPORTING SOME -SN. SO FAR THE SHSN HAS BEEN LIGHT ENOUGH TO BE
VFR. HOWEVER, SOME MVFR CAN NOT BE RULED OUT, AND WILL CONTINUE TO
INCLUDE IN THE FCSTS.

SATURDAY...THE BIGGEST ISSUE AFFECTING AVIATION TRAVEL ON
SATURDAY WILL BE THE WINDS. BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT,
THE WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST AND BECOME
VERY GUSTY. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15-20 KNOTS BY 12-15Z
AND INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS FROM 25 KNOTS EARLY
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 40 KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST
WINDS 10 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 30-35 KNOTS EARLY, DIMINISHING
SOME OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GUSTS STILL 20-25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...DEGRADING CONDITIONS WITH MVFR/IFR LIKELY
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW POSSIBLY
BEGINNING MONDAY FOR MANY AREAS, POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN AT
TIMES FOR SOME AREAS.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. WINDY.

WEDNESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS. WINDY.

&&

.MARINE...
LULL IN THE WIND AND SEAS WILL END SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

GALES AND FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS-ADVISORIES POSTED. THE HEAVIEST
FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE MIDNIGHT TO 7 AM ALONG THE SHORE WHERE SSTS
NOW DOWN TO ABOUT 35-36F AND USED 35 FOR THE ZY THRESHOLD.

ISOLATED 50 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE SATURDAY IN FUNNELED NW WIND DOWN DE
BAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING CONTINUES WITH STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT AS VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING AND FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE DAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
LIKELY...GALES POSSIBLE AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EAST
COAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BEFORE EVERYONE HEADS INTO THE WEEKEND, I WANTED TO BRING NEXT
WEEK`S STORM INTO LIGHT AND MENTION THAT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING ACROSS THE HSA. THERE`S STILL A LOT THAT NEEDS TO UNFOLD,
BUT THE 5-DAY WPC QPF OF 1.50 TO 2.50 INCHES OF LIQUID COMBINED WITH
ANOTHER 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF SWE ON THE GROUND WOULD VERY LIKELY
CAUSE NUISANCE LOW-LYING FLOODING AND POSSIBLY SOME MINOR TO
MODERATE RIVER FLOODING (RIVERS ASSOCIATED WITH OUR FORECAST
POINTS). THIS ASSUMES MOST, IF NOT ALL, THE PRECIPITATION FALLS AS
RAIN.

THE UNCERTAINTY THIS AFTERNOON IS LARGE. YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME, THE
PRECIPITATION WAS HEAVIEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. NOW IT`S LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BESIDES TIMING, TRACK IS QUITE DIFFERENT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO WITH THE EURO BEING FURTHER WEST AND MORE
LIQUIDY. TRACK WILL PLAY A ROLE IN TEMPS AND NOT ONLY AFFECT WHAT
TYPE OF PRECIPITATION FALLS, BUT ALSO AFFECT WHAT REMAINING SWE
MELTS. THERE`S ABOUT 0.25 TO 0.50 SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA. I CAN
SAY WE ARE IN A BETTER SPOT THAN ON THE 3RD AND 4TH WHEN THERE WAS
IN EXCESS OF 2.00 OF SWE ALONG THE I-78 CORRIDOR. AS AN FYI, ONE OF
THE MAIN REASONS WE DIDN`T SEE THE FLOODING, THAT MODELS SUGGESTED,
ON THE 3RD AND 4TH WAS BECAUSE ALL THE SWE DID NOT RAPIDLY COME OUT
OF THE SNOWPACK. SNOWMELT CAN BE A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK.

WHILE THE LACK OF SWE IS LOOKING BETTER ACROSS THE HSA, NOT ALL THE
RIVERS HAVE RECEDED BACK TO WHERE THEY WERE PRIOR TO THE 3RD. SO
RIVERS WILL START HIGHER AND THE COLD THIS WEEKEND WILL SURELY GET
THE GROUND HARD FOR A VERY EFFICIENT RUNOFF.

SO THE TAKE AWAY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND IS TO UNDERSTAND THAT IF
THE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY (OR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY) EVENT IS ALL
LIQUID ACROSS THE AREA, LOW-LYING, POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS LIKELY
AND MINOR TO MODERATE RIVER FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. IF THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS OFF AS SNOW OR ICE, THE FLOODING THREAT
DECREASES. IF ALL SNOW FALLS, WE`RE POTENTIALLY JUST KICKING THE CAN
DOWN THE ROAD FOR FUTURE FLOODING. TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS STILL EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING, DESPITE THE MOS GUIDANCE...AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON SO FAR.

BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY:
KABE, KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE 14TH,
IF THEN. THOSE HAVE BEEN ADDED RECENTLY BELOW.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH ----RER LOW MAX
---------------------- --------------------

ABE             8                         -1 IN 1979     14-1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979     13-1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979     14-1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979     13-1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     060-061-070-071-101>106.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NJZ007>010-012>027.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NJZ001-014-
     016>027.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NJZ001.
DE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     DEZ001-002.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     MDZ008-012.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-020.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO 9
     AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ430-431-454-455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 122326
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
626 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS WEEKEND AND THEN MOVE EAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MONDAY AND THEN MOVE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS TUESDAY AND THEN
NORTH INTO CANADA WEDNESDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...SHALLOW MOIST ADVECTION ON S-SW FLOW PRIOR TO THE CFP.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED SOME ENHANCED ECHOES...SNOW SHOWERS...ACRS
SERN PA,NRN DE, SRN DE. HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT ERLY, THOUGH
MOST OF THE ECHOES LIKELY NOT REACHING THE GROUND.

SW WIND MAY GUST 15 MPH EARLY TONIGHT. THEN A WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST AND GUSTY 20-30 MPH BY DAWN SATURDAY....POSSIBLE
ISOLATED GUSTS 40-45 MPH AT SUNRISE PER ARRIVING STRONG CAA AND
PRES RISES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WIND CHILL ADVY AND WIND ADVY POSTED IN ADDITION TO PRIOR WIND
CHILL WARNING.  SPS FROM YDY NO LONGER NEEDED.

DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER MOMENTUM TRANSFER IS FEATURED ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ONCOMING ARCTIC AIRMASS INVASION. LARGE LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES AND BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER INDICATING A POSSIBILITY OF
FLURRIES OR SQUALLS BUT WILL THE SFC TT/TD SPREAD EXCEED 25F AND
MAKE THOSE SQUALLS JUST VIRGA? SEEMS LIKE BEST CHC FOR A SQUALL
WOULD BE THE MORNING AND IN THE REGION S OF THE PA TURNPIKE.

AM THINKING OF GUSTS 50 MPH IN THE POCONOS AND ALSO SCATTERED 50
MPH GUSTS DEVELOPING IN THE KRDG-KPHL-KILG KACY AND NORTH SIDE OF
DE BAY SLOT FOR THE AFTN. WIND ADVY ISSUED. NOT SURE HOW MANY
NOTICED BUT THE NAM AND OP ECMWF HAVE BEEN A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE
ON WIND. JUST LOOKS LIKE TOO DEEP A MIXED LAYER TO AVOID CONNECTING
A FEW EDDIES OF 50 KT GUSTS DOWN FROM 6000 TO 7000 FT ALOFT. THE
INVERSION SINKS TO NEAR 850 MB LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY.

STRONGEST WINDS ASIDE FROM THE INITIAL BURST NEAR 11-12Z, MAY BE
LATE AFTN AND EVENING. FOR NOW WANTED TO LIMIT ADVY ONLY TO THE
DAY AND IF ITS GUSTING 40 KT AT 3 PM SATURDAY, THEN SUSPECT IT CAN
GUST 40-45 KT THROUGH 10 PM. CONFIDENCE ON VERIFICATION IS
AVERAGE. THIS COULD BE OVERDONE BUT HAVE SEEN REPEATEDLY THE POCS
WIND MATCH THE OVERWATER WIND NEAR 44065, AND NW FLOW STRONGEST
GUSTS NEAR A RDG-PHL LINE. ALSO ADDED MD E SHORE ALONG THE STILL
WARM CHES BAY AND DELAWARE ALONG THE BAY FROM WILMINGTON TO LEWES
WHERE I THINK SOME HEFTY GUSTS COULD ADD TO THE CHILL.

OTHERWISE WIDESPREAD GUSTS 40 MPH SATURDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES .. TENDING TO CLEAR LATE DAY.

WINDS WERE DERIVED FROM THE GFS, THE TEMPS FROM THE NAM MOS BLENDED
WITH THE 2M TEMPS OF THE 12Z GFS/NAM. HRRX INDICATED NEAR 0 AT KMPO
AT 17Z SATURDAY...WITHOUT A WIND CHILL. CANT SEE IT MORE THAN 17F
AT PHL AT 18Z SAT...MAYBE EVEN A DEGREE OR 2 COLDER?.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE HEART OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL
READINGS WILL BE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES SAT NIGHT AROUND -10 ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND CLOSER TO
5 DEGREES ACROSS THE METRO PHILLY AREAS AND OVER THE DELMARVA. HIGH
TEMPS SUNDAY IN THE TEENS MOST AREAS...BUT SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE
SRN POCONOS. WIND CHILL READINGS -20 TO -32 FAR NORTH AND -5 TO -10
OVER THE DELMARVA.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE SOUTH MONDAY AND MOVE
UP THE INLAND EAST COAST TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM
THAT SEEMS TO BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AMONGST THE OP MODELS
FAVOR A LOW TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN PART OF OUR AREA. THIS
WILL ALLOW A DECENT FLOW OF WARMER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AS SNOW...BUT WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN LATER MON NIGHT AND REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN TUESDAY. THE
QPF COULD BE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN MANY AREAS. THERE IS ALSO
SOME CHC FOR AN ACCUMULATING SNOW MONDAY ACROSS (MOST LIKELY)
ERN/NERN PA BEFORE THE CHANGE TO RAIN. EARLIEST PREDICTIONS FOR SNOW
ACCUMS WOULD BE AROUND 1-3 INCHES AT THIS POINT. THE DETAILS WILL BE
TUNED UP AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES.

THE STORM MOVES UP INTO CANADA WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER COOLER AIR FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE. HOWEVER, BASED ON LATEST RADAR SHOWING
SOME ENHANCED ECHOES, HAVE MOVED UP THE TIMING OF THE SHSN. MUCH
OF ACTIVITY IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND, BUT AS CLOSE AS KPNE IS
REPORTING SOME -SN. SO FAR THE SHSN HAS BEEN LIGHT ENOUGH TO BE
VFR. HOWEVER, SOME MVFR CAN NOT BE RULED OUT, AND WILL CONTINUE TO
INCLUDE IN THE FCSTS.

SATURDAY...THE BIGGEST ISSUE AFFECTING AVIATION TRAVEL ON
SATURDAY WILL BE THE WINDS. BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT,
THE WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST AND BECOME
VERY GUSTY. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15-20 KNOTS BY 12-15Z
AND INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS FROM 25 KNOTS EARLY
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 40 KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST
WINDS 10 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 30-35 KNOTS EARLY, DIMINISHING
SOME OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GUSTS STILL 20-25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...DEGRADING CONDITIONS WITH MVFR/IFR LIKELY
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW POSSIBLY
BEGINNING MONDAY FOR MANY AREAS, POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN AT
TIMES FOR SOME AREAS.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. WINDY.

WEDNESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS. WINDY.

&&

.MARINE...
LULL IN THE WIND AND SEAS WILL END SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

GALES AND FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS-ADVISORIES POSTED. THE HEAVIEST
FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE MIDNIGHT TO 7 AM ALONG THE SHORE WHERE SSTS
NOW DOWN TO ABOUT 35-36F AND USED 35 FOR THE ZY THRESHOLD.

ISOLATED 50 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE SATURDAY IN FUNNELED NW WIND DOWN DE
BAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING CONTINUES WITH STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT AS VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING AND FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE DAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
LIKELY...GALES POSSIBLE AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EAST
COAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BEFORE EVERYONE HEADS INTO THE WEEKEND, I WANTED TO BRING NEXT
WEEK`S STORM INTO LIGHT AND MENTION THAT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING ACROSS THE HSA. THERE`S STILL A LOT THAT NEEDS TO UNFOLD,
BUT THE 5-DAY WPC QPF OF 1.50 TO 2.50 INCHES OF LIQUID COMBINED WITH
ANOTHER 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF SWE ON THE GROUND WOULD VERY LIKELY
CAUSE NUISANCE LOW-LYING FLOODING AND POSSIBLY SOME MINOR TO
MODERATE RIVER FLOODING (RIVERS ASSOCIATED WITH OUR FORECAST
POINTS). THIS ASSUMES MOST, IF NOT ALL, THE PRECIPITATION FALLS AS
RAIN.

THE UNCERTAINTY THIS AFTERNOON IS LARGE. YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME, THE
PRECIPITATION WAS HEAVIEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. NOW IT`S LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BESIDES TIMING, TRACK IS QUITE DIFFERENT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO WITH THE EURO BEING FURTHER WEST AND MORE
LIQUIDY. TRACK WILL PLAY A ROLE IN TEMPS AND NOT ONLY AFFECT WHAT
TYPE OF PRECIPITATION FALLS, BUT ALSO AFFECT WHAT REMAINING SWE
MELTS. THERE`S ABOUT 0.25 TO 0.50 SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA. I CAN
SAY WE ARE IN A BETTER SPOT THAN ON THE 3RD AND 4TH WHEN THERE WAS
IN EXCESS OF 2.00 OF SWE ALONG THE I-78 CORRIDOR. AS AN FYI, ONE OF
THE MAIN REASONS WE DIDN`T SEE THE FLOODING, THAT MODELS SUGGESTED,
ON THE 3RD AND 4TH WAS BECAUSE ALL THE SWE DID NOT RAPIDLY COME OUT
OF THE SNOWPACK. SNOWMELT CAN BE A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK.

WHILE THE LACK OF SWE IS LOOKING BETTER ACROSS THE HSA, NOT ALL THE
RIVERS HAVE RECEDED BACK TO WHERE THEY WERE PRIOR TO THE 3RD. SO
RIVERS WILL START HIGHER AND THE COLD THIS WEEKEND WILL SURELY GET
THE GROUND HARD FOR A VERY EFFICIENT RUNOFF.

SO THE TAKE AWAY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND IS TO UNDERSTAND THAT IF
THE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY (OR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY) EVENT IS ALL
LIQUID ACROSS THE AREA, LOW-LYING, POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS LIKELY
AND MINOR TO MODERATE RIVER FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. IF THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS OFF AS SNOW OR ICE, THE FLOODING THREAT
DECREASES. IF ALL SNOW FALLS, WE`RE POTENTIALLY JUST KICKING THE CAN
DOWN THE ROAD FOR FUTURE FLOODING. TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS STILL EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING, DESPITE THE MOS GUIDANCE...AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON SO FAR.

BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY:
KABE, KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE 14TH,
IF THEN. THOSE HAVE BEEN ADDED RECENTLY BELOW.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH ----RER LOW MAX
---------------------- --------------------

ABE             8                         -1 IN 1979     14-1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979     13-1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979     14-1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979     13-1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     060-061-070-071-101>106.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NJZ007>010-012>027.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NJZ001-014-
     016>027.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NJZ001.
DE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     DEZ001-002.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     MDZ008-012.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-020.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO 9
     AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ430-431-454-455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 122326
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
626 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS WEEKEND AND THEN MOVE EAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MONDAY AND THEN MOVE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS TUESDAY AND THEN
NORTH INTO CANADA WEDNESDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...SHALLOW MOIST ADVECTION ON S-SW FLOW PRIOR TO THE CFP.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED SOME ENHANCED ECHOES...SNOW SHOWERS...ACRS
SERN PA,NRN DE, SRN DE. HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT ERLY, THOUGH
MOST OF THE ECHOES LIKELY NOT REACHING THE GROUND.

SW WIND MAY GUST 15 MPH EARLY TONIGHT. THEN A WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST AND GUSTY 20-30 MPH BY DAWN SATURDAY....POSSIBLE
ISOLATED GUSTS 40-45 MPH AT SUNRISE PER ARRIVING STRONG CAA AND
PRES RISES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WIND CHILL ADVY AND WIND ADVY POSTED IN ADDITION TO PRIOR WIND
CHILL WARNING.  SPS FROM YDY NO LONGER NEEDED.

DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER MOMENTUM TRANSFER IS FEATURED ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ONCOMING ARCTIC AIRMASS INVASION. LARGE LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES AND BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER INDICATING A POSSIBILITY OF
FLURRIES OR SQUALLS BUT WILL THE SFC TT/TD SPREAD EXCEED 25F AND
MAKE THOSE SQUALLS JUST VIRGA? SEEMS LIKE BEST CHC FOR A SQUALL
WOULD BE THE MORNING AND IN THE REGION S OF THE PA TURNPIKE.

AM THINKING OF GUSTS 50 MPH IN THE POCONOS AND ALSO SCATTERED 50
MPH GUSTS DEVELOPING IN THE KRDG-KPHL-KILG KACY AND NORTH SIDE OF
DE BAY SLOT FOR THE AFTN. WIND ADVY ISSUED. NOT SURE HOW MANY
NOTICED BUT THE NAM AND OP ECMWF HAVE BEEN A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE
ON WIND. JUST LOOKS LIKE TOO DEEP A MIXED LAYER TO AVOID CONNECTING
A FEW EDDIES OF 50 KT GUSTS DOWN FROM 6000 TO 7000 FT ALOFT. THE
INVERSION SINKS TO NEAR 850 MB LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY.

STRONGEST WINDS ASIDE FROM THE INITIAL BURST NEAR 11-12Z, MAY BE
LATE AFTN AND EVENING. FOR NOW WANTED TO LIMIT ADVY ONLY TO THE
DAY AND IF ITS GUSTING 40 KT AT 3 PM SATURDAY, THEN SUSPECT IT CAN
GUST 40-45 KT THROUGH 10 PM. CONFIDENCE ON VERIFICATION IS
AVERAGE. THIS COULD BE OVERDONE BUT HAVE SEEN REPEATEDLY THE POCS
WIND MATCH THE OVERWATER WIND NEAR 44065, AND NW FLOW STRONGEST
GUSTS NEAR A RDG-PHL LINE. ALSO ADDED MD E SHORE ALONG THE STILL
WARM CHES BAY AND DELAWARE ALONG THE BAY FROM WILMINGTON TO LEWES
WHERE I THINK SOME HEFTY GUSTS COULD ADD TO THE CHILL.

OTHERWISE WIDESPREAD GUSTS 40 MPH SATURDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES .. TENDING TO CLEAR LATE DAY.

WINDS WERE DERIVED FROM THE GFS, THE TEMPS FROM THE NAM MOS BLENDED
WITH THE 2M TEMPS OF THE 12Z GFS/NAM. HRRX INDICATED NEAR 0 AT KMPO
AT 17Z SATURDAY...WITHOUT A WIND CHILL. CANT SEE IT MORE THAN 17F
AT PHL AT 18Z SAT...MAYBE EVEN A DEGREE OR 2 COLDER?.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE HEART OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL
READINGS WILL BE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES SAT NIGHT AROUND -10 ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND CLOSER TO
5 DEGREES ACROSS THE METRO PHILLY AREAS AND OVER THE DELMARVA. HIGH
TEMPS SUNDAY IN THE TEENS MOST AREAS...BUT SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE
SRN POCONOS. WIND CHILL READINGS -20 TO -32 FAR NORTH AND -5 TO -10
OVER THE DELMARVA.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE SOUTH MONDAY AND MOVE
UP THE INLAND EAST COAST TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM
THAT SEEMS TO BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AMONGST THE OP MODELS
FAVOR A LOW TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN PART OF OUR AREA. THIS
WILL ALLOW A DECENT FLOW OF WARMER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AS SNOW...BUT WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN LATER MON NIGHT AND REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN TUESDAY. THE
QPF COULD BE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN MANY AREAS. THERE IS ALSO
SOME CHC FOR AN ACCUMULATING SNOW MONDAY ACROSS (MOST LIKELY)
ERN/NERN PA BEFORE THE CHANGE TO RAIN. EARLIEST PREDICTIONS FOR SNOW
ACCUMS WOULD BE AROUND 1-3 INCHES AT THIS POINT. THE DETAILS WILL BE
TUNED UP AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES.

THE STORM MOVES UP INTO CANADA WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER COOLER AIR FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE. HOWEVER, BASED ON LATEST RADAR SHOWING
SOME ENHANCED ECHOES, HAVE MOVED UP THE TIMING OF THE SHSN. MUCH
OF ACTIVITY IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND, BUT AS CLOSE AS KPNE IS
REPORTING SOME -SN. SO FAR THE SHSN HAS BEEN LIGHT ENOUGH TO BE
VFR. HOWEVER, SOME MVFR CAN NOT BE RULED OUT, AND WILL CONTINUE TO
INCLUDE IN THE FCSTS.

SATURDAY...THE BIGGEST ISSUE AFFECTING AVIATION TRAVEL ON
SATURDAY WILL BE THE WINDS. BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT,
THE WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST AND BECOME
VERY GUSTY. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15-20 KNOTS BY 12-15Z
AND INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS FROM 25 KNOTS EARLY
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 40 KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST
WINDS 10 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 30-35 KNOTS EARLY, DIMINISHING
SOME OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GUSTS STILL 20-25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...DEGRADING CONDITIONS WITH MVFR/IFR LIKELY
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW POSSIBLY
BEGINNING MONDAY FOR MANY AREAS, POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN AT
TIMES FOR SOME AREAS.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. WINDY.

WEDNESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS. WINDY.

&&

.MARINE...
LULL IN THE WIND AND SEAS WILL END SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

GALES AND FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS-ADVISORIES POSTED. THE HEAVIEST
FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE MIDNIGHT TO 7 AM ALONG THE SHORE WHERE SSTS
NOW DOWN TO ABOUT 35-36F AND USED 35 FOR THE ZY THRESHOLD.

ISOLATED 50 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE SATURDAY IN FUNNELED NW WIND DOWN DE
BAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING CONTINUES WITH STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT AS VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING AND FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE DAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
LIKELY...GALES POSSIBLE AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EAST
COAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BEFORE EVERYONE HEADS INTO THE WEEKEND, I WANTED TO BRING NEXT
WEEK`S STORM INTO LIGHT AND MENTION THAT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING ACROSS THE HSA. THERE`S STILL A LOT THAT NEEDS TO UNFOLD,
BUT THE 5-DAY WPC QPF OF 1.50 TO 2.50 INCHES OF LIQUID COMBINED WITH
ANOTHER 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF SWE ON THE GROUND WOULD VERY LIKELY
CAUSE NUISANCE LOW-LYING FLOODING AND POSSIBLY SOME MINOR TO
MODERATE RIVER FLOODING (RIVERS ASSOCIATED WITH OUR FORECAST
POINTS). THIS ASSUMES MOST, IF NOT ALL, THE PRECIPITATION FALLS AS
RAIN.

THE UNCERTAINTY THIS AFTERNOON IS LARGE. YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME, THE
PRECIPITATION WAS HEAVIEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. NOW IT`S LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BESIDES TIMING, TRACK IS QUITE DIFFERENT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO WITH THE EURO BEING FURTHER WEST AND MORE
LIQUIDY. TRACK WILL PLAY A ROLE IN TEMPS AND NOT ONLY AFFECT WHAT
TYPE OF PRECIPITATION FALLS, BUT ALSO AFFECT WHAT REMAINING SWE
MELTS. THERE`S ABOUT 0.25 TO 0.50 SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA. I CAN
SAY WE ARE IN A BETTER SPOT THAN ON THE 3RD AND 4TH WHEN THERE WAS
IN EXCESS OF 2.00 OF SWE ALONG THE I-78 CORRIDOR. AS AN FYI, ONE OF
THE MAIN REASONS WE DIDN`T SEE THE FLOODING, THAT MODELS SUGGESTED,
ON THE 3RD AND 4TH WAS BECAUSE ALL THE SWE DID NOT RAPIDLY COME OUT
OF THE SNOWPACK. SNOWMELT CAN BE A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK.

WHILE THE LACK OF SWE IS LOOKING BETTER ACROSS THE HSA, NOT ALL THE
RIVERS HAVE RECEDED BACK TO WHERE THEY WERE PRIOR TO THE 3RD. SO
RIVERS WILL START HIGHER AND THE COLD THIS WEEKEND WILL SURELY GET
THE GROUND HARD FOR A VERY EFFICIENT RUNOFF.

SO THE TAKE AWAY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND IS TO UNDERSTAND THAT IF
THE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY (OR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY) EVENT IS ALL
LIQUID ACROSS THE AREA, LOW-LYING, POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS LIKELY
AND MINOR TO MODERATE RIVER FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. IF THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS OFF AS SNOW OR ICE, THE FLOODING THREAT
DECREASES. IF ALL SNOW FALLS, WE`RE POTENTIALLY JUST KICKING THE CAN
DOWN THE ROAD FOR FUTURE FLOODING. TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS STILL EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING, DESPITE THE MOS GUIDANCE...AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON SO FAR.

BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY:
KABE, KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE 14TH,
IF THEN. THOSE HAVE BEEN ADDED RECENTLY BELOW.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH ----RER LOW MAX
---------------------- --------------------

ABE             8                         -1 IN 1979     14-1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979     13-1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979     14-1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979     13-1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     060-061-070-071-101>106.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NJZ007>010-012>027.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NJZ001-014-
     016>027.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NJZ001.
DE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     DEZ001-002.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     MDZ008-012.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-020.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO 9
     AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ430-431-454-455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 122255
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
555 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST THIS EVENING.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING
IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CENTERS 1014MB SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC COAST
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
MOVING ACROSS EAST/SOUTHEAST VA...WITH OBS AND RADAR RETURNS
INDICATING HEAVIEST SNOW OVER NE NC. THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW/SLEET
AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING REMAINS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LIGHT SNOW WILL WIND DOWN ACROSS ERN VA INTO SE
VA BY 5 PM...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT WITH AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 INCH OF SNOWFALL STILL POSSIBLE
BACK INTO ISLE OF WIGHT AND SOUTHAMPTON COUNTIES. THE SFC LOW
DEEPENS AND LIFTS NEWD AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE. SNOW
BAND WILL PIVOT INTO SE VA LATE TODAY BEFORE THE LIGHT SNOW FINALLY
PUSHES OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING. THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY THEN PUSHES
THRU THE REGION THIS EVENING. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THE MD ERN
SHORE TO LIKELY LATE THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALONG THE
ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES. NW WINDS
INCREASE BEHIND THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY...INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH COASTAL AREAS AND THE ERN SHORE. SKY CLEARS
SW TO NE LATE TONIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH LOCATES OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES SAT AS THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES OFFSHORE. POLAR FRONT
PROGGED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE SAT...USHERING IN SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON. H85 TEMPS PLUMMET TO AROUND -18 TO -20C (-2 TO -3 STD
DEV). HIGHS ONLY FORECAST IN THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW 30S SE.
WINDY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 TO
35 MPH. GUSTS OVER THE EASTERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 MPH. WHILE THE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY (DEWPOINTS BELOW
0)...BAY STREAMERS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE. SKY AVERAGES SUNNY
SOUTHWEST TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE IN WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION SAT NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH INLAND...ALLOWING FOR GREAT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS PLUNGING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS INLAND TO UPPER TEENS NEAR THE COAST. WIND CHILL VALUES
GENERALLY 0 TO 5 ABOVE INLAND AND AROUND 5 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD OFF ON WIND CHILL ADVISORY ATTM.

THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SUN...WITH HIGHS ONLY
WARMING INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S (-2 STD DEV). SKY AVERAGES MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH A LIGHT NY WIND. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUN NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. NRN STREAM ENERGY LIFTS
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS MON. SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. POPS INCREASE LATE SUN
NIGHT AS THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM WEAKENS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. AIR MASS WILL EASILY BE COLD ENOUGH SUN
NIGHT FOR ALL SNOW AS LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE MON AS A COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS
ALONG THE COAST AND THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP SOUTH LOW BEGINS TO LIFT
NEWD TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE
NW MONDAY MORNING...WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS ALL BUT SE VA/NE NC MON
AFTERNOON. WAA ALOFT/CRITICAL THICKNESSES STILL INDICATING A CHANGE
OVER FROM SN/IP MON MORNING TO RA CLOSER TO THE COAST MON AFTERNOON.
PTYPE LIKELY TO REMAIN ALL SNOW NW. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME TIMING
AND SPATIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...BUT CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST CALLS FOR 1-2 INCHES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR INTO
CENTRAL VA AND NRN VA...WITH 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12/12Z NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS MONDAY EVENING...THEN RAPIDLY
DEEPENING AS IT LIFTS NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MIXED PCPN COULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING OVER THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD OCCUR IN
THE EVENING...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES SSE. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THE
LONGEST IN THE FAR NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES WHERE SOME POCKETS OF -FZRA
COULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT GENERALLY ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN ARE POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A BAND OF STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT PASSES
OVER THE REGION. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS COULD PRODUCE A MODESTLY
STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR A 3-6HR
PERIOD TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AT LEAST THE MID/UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH LOW 60S POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST...WHILE THE PIEDMONT STRUGGLES TO RISE ABOVE THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. GENERALLY EXPECTING DRIER CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME 20-30% POPS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE N AS A
SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. DRY AND MILD
WEDNESDAY UNDER WNW FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A
COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL...BUT WITHIN -1 ST DEV. A MODERATING TREND COMMENCES LATE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WK SFC LO PRES WILL BE EXITING NC/SC CST THIS AFTN/EVE. BROAD AREA
OF SN TO MOVE ACRS MNLY SE VA/NE NC. PD OF MDT SN PSBL FM ABT
20-23Z/12...ESP AT ECG. ELSW...DRY LO LVL ATMOS XPD TO PREVENT
ANYTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES RIC-SBY.

TROUGH ALOFT TO PUSH ACRS THE RGN TNGT...PTNTL FOR SCT -SN...MNLY
INVOF SBY FM ABT 02-03Z TO 08-09Z/13. OTRW...STRONG CDFNT TO PUSH
ACRS THE RGN OVRNGT. GUSTY NW WNDS TO 25-35 KT TO DEVELOP LT
TNGT/EARLY SAT MRNG...CONTG THROUGH THE DAY SAT. VFR AND DRY WX
WILL PREVAIL SAT THROUGH SUN NGT. PCPN DEVELOPS MONDAY AS THE NEXT
WX SYS APPROACHES FROM THE W. PCPN BEGINS AS SNOW MON MRNG...MNLY
INLAND...BEFORE WARMER AIR WORKS IN AND CHANGES ANY SN TO RA FROM
SE TO NW DURING MON. RA CONTS INTO TUESDAY AS LO PRES TRACKS ACRS
THE AREA. DRY WX RETURNS WED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING ENE OFF THE NC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING
ACROSS THE ERN LAKES...WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT TRAILING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY...AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SPILLING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SN...WHICH WILL
REDUCE VSBY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (MAINLY S). AS THE LOW
LIFTS TO THE NE TONIGHT THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN
FROM THE NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF
35-40KT OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 5-8FT WITH 4-5 FT
WAVES IN THE BAY. GALE FLAGS CONTINUE FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND SPEEDS REMAIN CAPPED
AT HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME. FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED AS
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND TRACKS UP THE PIEDMONT TUESDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODESTLY STRONG SSE WIND AND BUILDING
SEAS/WAVES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES / LOW WATER ADVISORIES FOR SOME AREAS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND MUCH OF THE COASTLINES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THE MAIN AREAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THAT COULD HAVE
LOW WATER ARE ALONG THE ATLANITC COAST N OF CAPE CHARLES. A LOW
WATER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 08-13Z (3 TO 8 AM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NCZ012>014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ015>017-
     030>032-102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ092-
     093-095>098-100-523>525.
MARINE...LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652-654.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ633-635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB/MPR
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AJZ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 122255
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
555 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST THIS EVENING.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING
IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CENTERS 1014MB SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC COAST
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
MOVING ACROSS EAST/SOUTHEAST VA...WITH OBS AND RADAR RETURNS
INDICATING HEAVIEST SNOW OVER NE NC. THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW/SLEET
AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING REMAINS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LIGHT SNOW WILL WIND DOWN ACROSS ERN VA INTO SE
VA BY 5 PM...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT WITH AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 INCH OF SNOWFALL STILL POSSIBLE
BACK INTO ISLE OF WIGHT AND SOUTHAMPTON COUNTIES. THE SFC LOW
DEEPENS AND LIFTS NEWD AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE. SNOW
BAND WILL PIVOT INTO SE VA LATE TODAY BEFORE THE LIGHT SNOW FINALLY
PUSHES OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING. THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY THEN PUSHES
THRU THE REGION THIS EVENING. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THE MD ERN
SHORE TO LIKELY LATE THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALONG THE
ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES. NW WINDS
INCREASE BEHIND THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY...INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH COASTAL AREAS AND THE ERN SHORE. SKY CLEARS
SW TO NE LATE TONIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH LOCATES OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES SAT AS THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES OFFSHORE. POLAR FRONT
PROGGED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE SAT...USHERING IN SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON. H85 TEMPS PLUMMET TO AROUND -18 TO -20C (-2 TO -3 STD
DEV). HIGHS ONLY FORECAST IN THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW 30S SE.
WINDY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 TO
35 MPH. GUSTS OVER THE EASTERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 MPH. WHILE THE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY (DEWPOINTS BELOW
0)...BAY STREAMERS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE. SKY AVERAGES SUNNY
SOUTHWEST TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE IN WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION SAT NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH INLAND...ALLOWING FOR GREAT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS PLUNGING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS INLAND TO UPPER TEENS NEAR THE COAST. WIND CHILL VALUES
GENERALLY 0 TO 5 ABOVE INLAND AND AROUND 5 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD OFF ON WIND CHILL ADVISORY ATTM.

THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SUN...WITH HIGHS ONLY
WARMING INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S (-2 STD DEV). SKY AVERAGES MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH A LIGHT NY WIND. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUN NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. NRN STREAM ENERGY LIFTS
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS MON. SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. POPS INCREASE LATE SUN
NIGHT AS THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM WEAKENS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. AIR MASS WILL EASILY BE COLD ENOUGH SUN
NIGHT FOR ALL SNOW AS LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE MON AS A COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS
ALONG THE COAST AND THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP SOUTH LOW BEGINS TO LIFT
NEWD TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE
NW MONDAY MORNING...WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS ALL BUT SE VA/NE NC MON
AFTERNOON. WAA ALOFT/CRITICAL THICKNESSES STILL INDICATING A CHANGE
OVER FROM SN/IP MON MORNING TO RA CLOSER TO THE COAST MON AFTERNOON.
PTYPE LIKELY TO REMAIN ALL SNOW NW. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME TIMING
AND SPATIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...BUT CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST CALLS FOR 1-2 INCHES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR INTO
CENTRAL VA AND NRN VA...WITH 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12/12Z NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS MONDAY EVENING...THEN RAPIDLY
DEEPENING AS IT LIFTS NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MIXED PCPN COULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING OVER THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD OCCUR IN
THE EVENING...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES SSE. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THE
LONGEST IN THE FAR NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES WHERE SOME POCKETS OF -FZRA
COULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT GENERALLY ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN ARE POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A BAND OF STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT PASSES
OVER THE REGION. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS COULD PRODUCE A MODESTLY
STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR A 3-6HR
PERIOD TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AT LEAST THE MID/UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH LOW 60S POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST...WHILE THE PIEDMONT STRUGGLES TO RISE ABOVE THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. GENERALLY EXPECTING DRIER CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME 20-30% POPS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE N AS A
SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. DRY AND MILD
WEDNESDAY UNDER WNW FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A
COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL...BUT WITHIN -1 ST DEV. A MODERATING TREND COMMENCES LATE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WK SFC LO PRES WILL BE EXITING NC/SC CST THIS AFTN/EVE. BROAD AREA
OF SN TO MOVE ACRS MNLY SE VA/NE NC. PD OF MDT SN PSBL FM ABT
20-23Z/12...ESP AT ECG. ELSW...DRY LO LVL ATMOS XPD TO PREVENT
ANYTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES RIC-SBY.

TROUGH ALOFT TO PUSH ACRS THE RGN TNGT...PTNTL FOR SCT -SN...MNLY
INVOF SBY FM ABT 02-03Z TO 08-09Z/13. OTRW...STRONG CDFNT TO PUSH
ACRS THE RGN OVRNGT. GUSTY NW WNDS TO 25-35 KT TO DEVELOP LT
TNGT/EARLY SAT MRNG...CONTG THROUGH THE DAY SAT. VFR AND DRY WX
WILL PREVAIL SAT THROUGH SUN NGT. PCPN DEVELOPS MONDAY AS THE NEXT
WX SYS APPROACHES FROM THE W. PCPN BEGINS AS SNOW MON MRNG...MNLY
INLAND...BEFORE WARMER AIR WORKS IN AND CHANGES ANY SN TO RA FROM
SE TO NW DURING MON. RA CONTS INTO TUESDAY AS LO PRES TRACKS ACRS
THE AREA. DRY WX RETURNS WED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING ENE OFF THE NC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING
ACROSS THE ERN LAKES...WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT TRAILING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY...AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SPILLING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SN...WHICH WILL
REDUCE VSBY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (MAINLY S). AS THE LOW
LIFTS TO THE NE TONIGHT THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN
FROM THE NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF
35-40KT OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 5-8FT WITH 4-5 FT
WAVES IN THE BAY. GALE FLAGS CONTINUE FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND SPEEDS REMAIN CAPPED
AT HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME. FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED AS
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND TRACKS UP THE PIEDMONT TUESDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODESTLY STRONG SSE WIND AND BUILDING
SEAS/WAVES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES / LOW WATER ADVISORIES FOR SOME AREAS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND MUCH OF THE COASTLINES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THE MAIN AREAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THAT COULD HAVE
LOW WATER ARE ALONG THE ATLANITC COAST N OF CAPE CHARLES. A LOW
WATER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 08-13Z (3 TO 8 AM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NCZ012>014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ015>017-
     030>032-102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ092-
     093-095>098-100-523>525.
MARINE...LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652-654.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ633-635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB/MPR
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AJZ



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 122255
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
555 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST THIS EVENING.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING
IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CENTERS 1014MB SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC COAST
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
MOVING ACROSS EAST/SOUTHEAST VA...WITH OBS AND RADAR RETURNS
INDICATING HEAVIEST SNOW OVER NE NC. THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW/SLEET
AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING REMAINS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LIGHT SNOW WILL WIND DOWN ACROSS ERN VA INTO SE
VA BY 5 PM...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT WITH AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 INCH OF SNOWFALL STILL POSSIBLE
BACK INTO ISLE OF WIGHT AND SOUTHAMPTON COUNTIES. THE SFC LOW
DEEPENS AND LIFTS NEWD AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE. SNOW
BAND WILL PIVOT INTO SE VA LATE TODAY BEFORE THE LIGHT SNOW FINALLY
PUSHES OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING. THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY THEN PUSHES
THRU THE REGION THIS EVENING. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THE MD ERN
SHORE TO LIKELY LATE THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALONG THE
ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES. NW WINDS
INCREASE BEHIND THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY...INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH COASTAL AREAS AND THE ERN SHORE. SKY CLEARS
SW TO NE LATE TONIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH LOCATES OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES SAT AS THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES OFFSHORE. POLAR FRONT
PROGGED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE SAT...USHERING IN SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON. H85 TEMPS PLUMMET TO AROUND -18 TO -20C (-2 TO -3 STD
DEV). HIGHS ONLY FORECAST IN THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW 30S SE.
WINDY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 TO
35 MPH. GUSTS OVER THE EASTERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 MPH. WHILE THE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY (DEWPOINTS BELOW
0)...BAY STREAMERS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE. SKY AVERAGES SUNNY
SOUTHWEST TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE IN WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION SAT NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH INLAND...ALLOWING FOR GREAT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS PLUNGING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS INLAND TO UPPER TEENS NEAR THE COAST. WIND CHILL VALUES
GENERALLY 0 TO 5 ABOVE INLAND AND AROUND 5 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD OFF ON WIND CHILL ADVISORY ATTM.

THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SUN...WITH HIGHS ONLY
WARMING INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S (-2 STD DEV). SKY AVERAGES MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH A LIGHT NY WIND. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUN NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. NRN STREAM ENERGY LIFTS
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS MON. SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. POPS INCREASE LATE SUN
NIGHT AS THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM WEAKENS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. AIR MASS WILL EASILY BE COLD ENOUGH SUN
NIGHT FOR ALL SNOW AS LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE MON AS A COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS
ALONG THE COAST AND THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP SOUTH LOW BEGINS TO LIFT
NEWD TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE
NW MONDAY MORNING...WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS ALL BUT SE VA/NE NC MON
AFTERNOON. WAA ALOFT/CRITICAL THICKNESSES STILL INDICATING A CHANGE
OVER FROM SN/IP MON MORNING TO RA CLOSER TO THE COAST MON AFTERNOON.
PTYPE LIKELY TO REMAIN ALL SNOW NW. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME TIMING
AND SPATIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...BUT CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST CALLS FOR 1-2 INCHES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR INTO
CENTRAL VA AND NRN VA...WITH 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12/12Z NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS MONDAY EVENING...THEN RAPIDLY
DEEPENING AS IT LIFTS NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MIXED PCPN COULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING OVER THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD OCCUR IN
THE EVENING...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES SSE. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THE
LONGEST IN THE FAR NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES WHERE SOME POCKETS OF -FZRA
COULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT GENERALLY ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN ARE POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A BAND OF STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT PASSES
OVER THE REGION. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS COULD PRODUCE A MODESTLY
STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR A 3-6HR
PERIOD TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AT LEAST THE MID/UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH LOW 60S POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST...WHILE THE PIEDMONT STRUGGLES TO RISE ABOVE THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. GENERALLY EXPECTING DRIER CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME 20-30% POPS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE N AS A
SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. DRY AND MILD
WEDNESDAY UNDER WNW FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A
COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL...BUT WITHIN -1 ST DEV. A MODERATING TREND COMMENCES LATE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WK SFC LO PRES WILL BE EXITING NC/SC CST THIS AFTN/EVE. BROAD AREA
OF SN TO MOVE ACRS MNLY SE VA/NE NC. PD OF MDT SN PSBL FM ABT
20-23Z/12...ESP AT ECG. ELSW...DRY LO LVL ATMOS XPD TO PREVENT
ANYTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES RIC-SBY.

TROUGH ALOFT TO PUSH ACRS THE RGN TNGT...PTNTL FOR SCT -SN...MNLY
INVOF SBY FM ABT 02-03Z TO 08-09Z/13. OTRW...STRONG CDFNT TO PUSH
ACRS THE RGN OVRNGT. GUSTY NW WNDS TO 25-35 KT TO DEVELOP LT
TNGT/EARLY SAT MRNG...CONTG THROUGH THE DAY SAT. VFR AND DRY WX
WILL PREVAIL SAT THROUGH SUN NGT. PCPN DEVELOPS MONDAY AS THE NEXT
WX SYS APPROACHES FROM THE W. PCPN BEGINS AS SNOW MON MRNG...MNLY
INLAND...BEFORE WARMER AIR WORKS IN AND CHANGES ANY SN TO RA FROM
SE TO NW DURING MON. RA CONTS INTO TUESDAY AS LO PRES TRACKS ACRS
THE AREA. DRY WX RETURNS WED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING ENE OFF THE NC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING
ACROSS THE ERN LAKES...WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT TRAILING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY...AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SPILLING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SN...WHICH WILL
REDUCE VSBY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (MAINLY S). AS THE LOW
LIFTS TO THE NE TONIGHT THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN
FROM THE NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF
35-40KT OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 5-8FT WITH 4-5 FT
WAVES IN THE BAY. GALE FLAGS CONTINUE FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND SPEEDS REMAIN CAPPED
AT HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME. FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED AS
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND TRACKS UP THE PIEDMONT TUESDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODESTLY STRONG SSE WIND AND BUILDING
SEAS/WAVES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES / LOW WATER ADVISORIES FOR SOME AREAS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND MUCH OF THE COASTLINES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THE MAIN AREAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THAT COULD HAVE
LOW WATER ARE ALONG THE ATLANITC COAST N OF CAPE CHARLES. A LOW
WATER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 08-13Z (3 TO 8 AM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NCZ012>014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ015>017-
     030>032-102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ092-
     093-095>098-100-523>525.
MARINE...LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652-654.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ633-635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB/MPR
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AJZ




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 122248
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
548 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS CURRENT TIMING OF
POTENTIAL SQUALL CONDITIONS STILL LOOKS GOOD AS WV IMAGERY SHOWS
THE JET CORE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE PIVOTING OVER THE
AREA. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS NEEDED AT THIS TIME TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST OTHER THAN MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES.
PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..

SHORTWAVE PIVOTING ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING SNOW CHANCES IN THE RIDGES AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT
PASSAGE PROGGED FOR THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. BOTH HI RES AND LONGER
RANGE MODEL SOUNDINGS IN BUFKIT SUGGEST A PERIOD WHERE DEEP
MOISTURE...IN A LAYER FROM ABOUT 600MB TO 850MB...WILL BE WELL
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT EFFICIENT
SNOWFALL FOR A PERIOD...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ANTICIPATED
WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT IN UPSLOPE SNOW UNTIL THE WHOLE BOUNDARY
LAYER FALLS WELL BELOW THE GROWTH ZONE. WITH THIS IN MIND...A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE RIDGES OF PRESTON
TUCKER AND GARRETT COUNTIES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE WITH THE TIMING
OF THE SNOW SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL SQUALLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
PROGGED FOR PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE LINE TO BE INTO EASTERN
OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PA BY 00Z AND PITTSBURGH BY 03Z. VARIOUS
RUNS OF THE HRRR AND TO A LESSER DEGREE OTHER SNOW SQUALLS PROGS SUGGEST
THAT THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKENING AS THE LINE COMES ACROSS.
GENERALLY ANTICIPATE A HALF TO AN INCH OF SNOW...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
AND PROVIDE FOR A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AREAWIDE UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY WITH MAXIMUM WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER APPROACHING 25
TO 35KTS. THIS...ADDED TO TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILL VALUES WELL BELOW ZERO. THIS
SUPPORTS THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY THAT WAS ISSUED. 40MPH WIND
GUSTS OVERNIGHT IN THE RIDGES WILL ALLOW VALUES TO GET VERY CLOSE
TO WARNING CRITERIA BUT AT THIS POINT...THE WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO AN ADVISORY WITH SOME -25 VALUES POSSIBLE IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN OF TUCKER COUNTY.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SEVERAL DUAL-LAKE SNOW BANDS. THE LATEST
ITERATION OF MODELS HAS THE MORE PROMINENT BAND SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
SOUTH FROM LAST NIGHT SO WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE ACTUAL PLACEMENT
OF SNOW BANDS...HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH
FOR VENANGO COUNTY TO AN ADVISORY FOR MERCER...VENANGO...AND
FOREST COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL LAKE PLUMES MAY SUPPORT SNOW BEYOND
THESE ADVISORIES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY
IN THEIR PLACEMENT...NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES WERE ADDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AND SHIFT
NORTHWARD AS A SURFACE RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD OVERHEAD FOR
SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE WIND TO BACK OFF...WITH WIND
CHILL CONCERNS DIMINISHING IN OHIO. HOWEVER...WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE AND LIGHT WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL CLOSE TO OR BELOW
ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT...SO ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN AS IS FOR THE REST
OF THE CWA UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A FEW
DEGREES ON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SCATTERING
OF THE CLOUDS. TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
BOTH PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE
MONDAY. BY LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS STILL DIFFER
ON EXACT TRACK BUT SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...BUT ALSO POTENTIAL FOR A MIX WITH
RAIN OR ALL RAIN WHERE BETTER QPF IS FORECAST. FOR NOW HAVE NOT
STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST ALTHOUGH EVEN THE WARMER ECMWF
WRAPS COLD AIR BACK IN LATER TUESDAY SO HAVE KEPT MAINLY SNOW.

SYSTEM EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY FAST MOVING
CLIPPER SYSTEM WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL DELIVER ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW
SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF COLD AIR. HEIGHTS ALOFT THEN
BEGIN TO RISE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH STRONG WARM
ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW HAS DROPPED VSBY TO MVFR OR BELOW FOR A TIME AT KMGW AND
KLBE AS A SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC. SNOW SHOWERS
ALSO WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT...WITH MVFR TO
IFR THIS EVENING WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OVER
25KTS AND TURNING NORTHWEST WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SCATTERED RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR OHZ039-048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ007>009.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR WVZ003-004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WVZ001-002-021-509>514.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     WVZ512>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 122248
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
548 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS CURRENT TIMING OF
POTENTIAL SQUALL CONDITIONS STILL LOOKS GOOD AS WV IMAGERY SHOWS
THE JET CORE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE PIVOTING OVER THE
AREA. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS NEEDED AT THIS TIME TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST OTHER THAN MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES.
PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..

SHORTWAVE PIVOTING ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING SNOW CHANCES IN THE RIDGES AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT
PASSAGE PROGGED FOR THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. BOTH HI RES AND LONGER
RANGE MODEL SOUNDINGS IN BUFKIT SUGGEST A PERIOD WHERE DEEP
MOISTURE...IN A LAYER FROM ABOUT 600MB TO 850MB...WILL BE WELL
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT EFFICIENT
SNOWFALL FOR A PERIOD...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ANTICIPATED
WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT IN UPSLOPE SNOW UNTIL THE WHOLE BOUNDARY
LAYER FALLS WELL BELOW THE GROWTH ZONE. WITH THIS IN MIND...A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE RIDGES OF PRESTON
TUCKER AND GARRETT COUNTIES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE WITH THE TIMING
OF THE SNOW SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL SQUALLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
PROGGED FOR PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE LINE TO BE INTO EASTERN
OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PA BY 00Z AND PITTSBURGH BY 03Z. VARIOUS
RUNS OF THE HRRR AND TO A LESSER DEGREE OTHER SNOW SQUALLS PROGS SUGGEST
THAT THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKENING AS THE LINE COMES ACROSS.
GENERALLY ANTICIPATE A HALF TO AN INCH OF SNOW...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
AND PROVIDE FOR A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AREAWIDE UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY WITH MAXIMUM WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER APPROACHING 25
TO 35KTS. THIS...ADDED TO TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILL VALUES WELL BELOW ZERO. THIS
SUPPORTS THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY THAT WAS ISSUED. 40MPH WIND
GUSTS OVERNIGHT IN THE RIDGES WILL ALLOW VALUES TO GET VERY CLOSE
TO WARNING CRITERIA BUT AT THIS POINT...THE WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO AN ADVISORY WITH SOME -25 VALUES POSSIBLE IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN OF TUCKER COUNTY.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SEVERAL DUAL-LAKE SNOW BANDS. THE LATEST
ITERATION OF MODELS HAS THE MORE PROMINENT BAND SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
SOUTH FROM LAST NIGHT SO WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE ACTUAL PLACEMENT
OF SNOW BANDS...HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH
FOR VENANGO COUNTY TO AN ADVISORY FOR MERCER...VENANGO...AND
FOREST COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL LAKE PLUMES MAY SUPPORT SNOW BEYOND
THESE ADVISORIES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY
IN THEIR PLACEMENT...NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES WERE ADDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AND SHIFT
NORTHWARD AS A SURFACE RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD OVERHEAD FOR
SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE WIND TO BACK OFF...WITH WIND
CHILL CONCERNS DIMINISHING IN OHIO. HOWEVER...WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE AND LIGHT WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL CLOSE TO OR BELOW
ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT...SO ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN AS IS FOR THE REST
OF THE CWA UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A FEW
DEGREES ON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SCATTERING
OF THE CLOUDS. TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
BOTH PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE
MONDAY. BY LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS STILL DIFFER
ON EXACT TRACK BUT SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...BUT ALSO POTENTIAL FOR A MIX WITH
RAIN OR ALL RAIN WHERE BETTER QPF IS FORECAST. FOR NOW HAVE NOT
STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST ALTHOUGH EVEN THE WARMER ECMWF
WRAPS COLD AIR BACK IN LATER TUESDAY SO HAVE KEPT MAINLY SNOW.

SYSTEM EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY FAST MOVING
CLIPPER SYSTEM WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL DELIVER ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW
SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF COLD AIR. HEIGHTS ALOFT THEN
BEGIN TO RISE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH STRONG WARM
ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW HAS DROPPED VSBY TO MVFR OR BELOW FOR A TIME AT KMGW AND
KLBE AS A SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC. SNOW SHOWERS
ALSO WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT...WITH MVFR TO
IFR THIS EVENING WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OVER
25KTS AND TURNING NORTHWEST WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SCATTERED RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR OHZ039-048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ007>009.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR WVZ003-004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WVZ001-002-021-509>514.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     WVZ512>514.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 122248
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
548 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS CURRENT TIMING OF
POTENTIAL SQUALL CONDITIONS STILL LOOKS GOOD AS WV IMAGERY SHOWS
THE JET CORE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE PIVOTING OVER THE
AREA. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS NEEDED AT THIS TIME TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST OTHER THAN MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES.
PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..

SHORTWAVE PIVOTING ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING SNOW CHANCES IN THE RIDGES AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT
PASSAGE PROGGED FOR THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. BOTH HI RES AND LONGER
RANGE MODEL SOUNDINGS IN BUFKIT SUGGEST A PERIOD WHERE DEEP
MOISTURE...IN A LAYER FROM ABOUT 600MB TO 850MB...WILL BE WELL
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT EFFICIENT
SNOWFALL FOR A PERIOD...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ANTICIPATED
WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT IN UPSLOPE SNOW UNTIL THE WHOLE BOUNDARY
LAYER FALLS WELL BELOW THE GROWTH ZONE. WITH THIS IN MIND...A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE RIDGES OF PRESTON
TUCKER AND GARRETT COUNTIES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE WITH THE TIMING
OF THE SNOW SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL SQUALLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
PROGGED FOR PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE LINE TO BE INTO EASTERN
OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PA BY 00Z AND PITTSBURGH BY 03Z. VARIOUS
RUNS OF THE HRRR AND TO A LESSER DEGREE OTHER SNOW SQUALLS PROGS SUGGEST
THAT THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKENING AS THE LINE COMES ACROSS.
GENERALLY ANTICIPATE A HALF TO AN INCH OF SNOW...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
AND PROVIDE FOR A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AREAWIDE UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY WITH MAXIMUM WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER APPROACHING 25
TO 35KTS. THIS...ADDED TO TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILL VALUES WELL BELOW ZERO. THIS
SUPPORTS THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY THAT WAS ISSUED. 40MPH WIND
GUSTS OVERNIGHT IN THE RIDGES WILL ALLOW VALUES TO GET VERY CLOSE
TO WARNING CRITERIA BUT AT THIS POINT...THE WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO AN ADVISORY WITH SOME -25 VALUES POSSIBLE IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN OF TUCKER COUNTY.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SEVERAL DUAL-LAKE SNOW BANDS. THE LATEST
ITERATION OF MODELS HAS THE MORE PROMINENT BAND SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
SOUTH FROM LAST NIGHT SO WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE ACTUAL PLACEMENT
OF SNOW BANDS...HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH
FOR VENANGO COUNTY TO AN ADVISORY FOR MERCER...VENANGO...AND
FOREST COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL LAKE PLUMES MAY SUPPORT SNOW BEYOND
THESE ADVISORIES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY
IN THEIR PLACEMENT...NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES WERE ADDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AND SHIFT
NORTHWARD AS A SURFACE RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD OVERHEAD FOR
SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE WIND TO BACK OFF...WITH WIND
CHILL CONCERNS DIMINISHING IN OHIO. HOWEVER...WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE AND LIGHT WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL CLOSE TO OR BELOW
ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT...SO ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN AS IS FOR THE REST
OF THE CWA UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A FEW
DEGREES ON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SCATTERING
OF THE CLOUDS. TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
BOTH PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE
MONDAY. BY LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS STILL DIFFER
ON EXACT TRACK BUT SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...BUT ALSO POTENTIAL FOR A MIX WITH
RAIN OR ALL RAIN WHERE BETTER QPF IS FORECAST. FOR NOW HAVE NOT
STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST ALTHOUGH EVEN THE WARMER ECMWF
WRAPS COLD AIR BACK IN LATER TUESDAY SO HAVE KEPT MAINLY SNOW.

SYSTEM EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY FAST MOVING
CLIPPER SYSTEM WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL DELIVER ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW
SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF COLD AIR. HEIGHTS ALOFT THEN
BEGIN TO RISE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH STRONG WARM
ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW HAS DROPPED VSBY TO MVFR OR BELOW FOR A TIME AT KMGW AND
KLBE AS A SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC. SNOW SHOWERS
ALSO WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT...WITH MVFR TO
IFR THIS EVENING WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OVER
25KTS AND TURNING NORTHWEST WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SCATTERED RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR OHZ039-048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ007>009.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR WVZ003-004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WVZ001-002-021-509>514.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     WVZ512>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 122123
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
423 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE PIVOTING ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING SNOW CHANCES IN THE RIDGES AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT
PASSAGE PROGGED FOR THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. BOTH HI RES AND LONGER
RANGE MODEL SOUNDINGS IN BUFKIT SUGGEST A PERIOD WHERE DEEP
MOISTURE...IN A LAYER FROM ABOUT 600MB TO 850MB...WILL BE WELL
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT EFFICIENT
SNOWFALL FOR A PERIOD...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ANTICIPATED
WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT IN UPSLOPE SNOW UNTIL THE WHOLE BOUNDARY
LAYER FALLS WELL BELOW THE GROWTH ZONE. WITH THIS IN MIND...A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE RIDGES OF PRESTON
TUCKER AND GARRETT COUNTIES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE WITH THE TIMING
OF THE SNOW SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL SQUALLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
PROGGED FOR PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE LINE TO BE INTO EASTERN
OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PA BY 00Z AND PITTSBURGH BY 03Z. VARIOUS
RUNS OF THE HRRR AND TO A LESSER DEGREE OTHER SNOW SQUALLS PROGS SUGGEST
THAT THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKENING AS THE LINE COMES ACROSS.
GENERALLY ANTICIPATE A HALF TO AN INCH OF SNOW...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
AND PROVIDE FOR A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AREAWIDE UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY WITH MAXIMUM WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER APPROACHING 25
TO 35KTS. THIS...ADDED TO TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILL VALUES WELL BELOW ZERO. THIS
SUPPORTS THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY THAT WAS ISSUED. 40MPH WIND
GUSTS OVERNIGHT IN THE RIDGES WILL ALLOW VALUES TO GET VERY CLOSE
TO WARNING CRITERIA BUT AT THIS POINT...THE WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO AN ADVISORY WITH SOME -25 VALUES POSSIBLE IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN OF TUCKER COUNTY.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SEVERAL DUAL-LAKE SNOW BANDS. THE LATEST
ITERATION OF MODELS HAS THE MORE PROMINENT BAND SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
SOUTH FROM LAST NIGHT SO WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE ACTUAL PLACEMENT
OF SNOW BANDS...HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH
FOR VENANGO COUNTY TO AN ADVISORY FOR MERCER...VENANGO...AND
FOREST COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL LAKE PLUMES MAY SUPPORT SNOW BEYOND
THESE ADVISORIES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY
IN THEIR PLACEMENT...NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES WERE ADDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AND SHIFT
NORTHWARD AS A SURFACE RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD OVERHEAD FOR
SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE WIND TO BACK OFF...WITH WIND
CHILL CONCERNS DIMINISHING IN OHIO. HOWEVER...WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE AND LIGHT WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL CLOSE TO OR BELOW
ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT...SO ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN AS IS FOR THE REST
OF THE CWA UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A FEW
DEGREES ON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SCATTERING
OF THE CLOUDS. TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
BOTH PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE
MONDAY. BY LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS STILL DIFFER
ON EXACT TRACK BUT SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...BUT ALSO POTENTIAL FOR A MIX WITH
RAIN OR ALL RAIN WHERE BETTER QPF IS FORECAST. FOR NOW HAVE NOT
STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST ALTHOUGH EVEN THE WARMER ECMWF
WRAPS COLD AIR BACK IN LATER TUESDAY SO HAVE KEPT MAINLY SNOW.

SYSTEM EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY FAST MOVING
CLIPPER SYSTEM WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL DELIVER ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW
SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF COLD AIR. HEIGHTS ALOFT THEN
BEGIN TO RISE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH STRONG WARM
ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW HAS DROPPED VSBY TO MVFR OR BELOW FOR A TIME AT KMGW AND
KLBE AS A SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC. SNOW SHOWERS
ALSO WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT...WITH MVFR TO
IFR THIS EVENING WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OVER
25KTS AND TURNING NORTHWEST WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SCATTERED RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR OHZ039-048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ007>009.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR WVZ003-004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WVZ001-002-021-509>514.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     WVZ512>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 122123
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
423 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE PIVOTING ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING SNOW CHANCES IN THE RIDGES AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT
PASSAGE PROGGED FOR THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. BOTH HI RES AND LONGER
RANGE MODEL SOUNDINGS IN BUFKIT SUGGEST A PERIOD WHERE DEEP
MOISTURE...IN A LAYER FROM ABOUT 600MB TO 850MB...WILL BE WELL
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT EFFICIENT
SNOWFALL FOR A PERIOD...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ANTICIPATED
WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT IN UPSLOPE SNOW UNTIL THE WHOLE BOUNDARY
LAYER FALLS WELL BELOW THE GROWTH ZONE. WITH THIS IN MIND...A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE RIDGES OF PRESTON
TUCKER AND GARRETT COUNTIES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE WITH THE TIMING
OF THE SNOW SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL SQUALLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
PROGGED FOR PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE LINE TO BE INTO EASTERN
OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PA BY 00Z AND PITTSBURGH BY 03Z. VARIOUS
RUNS OF THE HRRR AND TO A LESSER DEGREE OTHER SNOW SQUALLS PROGS SUGGEST
THAT THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKENING AS THE LINE COMES ACROSS.
GENERALLY ANTICIPATE A HALF TO AN INCH OF SNOW...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
AND PROVIDE FOR A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AREAWIDE UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY WITH MAXIMUM WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER APPROACHING 25
TO 35KTS. THIS...ADDED TO TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILL VALUES WELL BELOW ZERO. THIS
SUPPORTS THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY THAT WAS ISSUED. 40MPH WIND
GUSTS OVERNIGHT IN THE RIDGES WILL ALLOW VALUES TO GET VERY CLOSE
TO WARNING CRITERIA BUT AT THIS POINT...THE WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO AN ADVISORY WITH SOME -25 VALUES POSSIBLE IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN OF TUCKER COUNTY.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SEVERAL DUAL-LAKE SNOW BANDS. THE LATEST
ITERATION OF MODELS HAS THE MORE PROMINENT BAND SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
SOUTH FROM LAST NIGHT SO WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE ACTUAL PLACEMENT
OF SNOW BANDS...HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH
FOR VENANGO COUNTY TO AN ADVISORY FOR MERCER...VENANGO...AND
FOREST COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL LAKE PLUMES MAY SUPPORT SNOW BEYOND
THESE ADVISORIES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY
IN THEIR PLACEMENT...NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES WERE ADDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AND SHIFT
NORTHWARD AS A SURFACE RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD OVERHEAD FOR
SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE WIND TO BACK OFF...WITH WIND
CHILL CONCERNS DIMINISHING IN OHIO. HOWEVER...WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE AND LIGHT WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL CLOSE TO OR BELOW
ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT...SO ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN AS IS FOR THE REST
OF THE CWA UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A FEW
DEGREES ON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SCATTERING
OF THE CLOUDS. TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
BOTH PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE
MONDAY. BY LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS STILL DIFFER
ON EXACT TRACK BUT SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...BUT ALSO POTENTIAL FOR A MIX WITH
RAIN OR ALL RAIN WHERE BETTER QPF IS FORECAST. FOR NOW HAVE NOT
STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST ALTHOUGH EVEN THE WARMER ECMWF
WRAPS COLD AIR BACK IN LATER TUESDAY SO HAVE KEPT MAINLY SNOW.

SYSTEM EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY FAST MOVING
CLIPPER SYSTEM WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL DELIVER ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW
SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF COLD AIR. HEIGHTS ALOFT THEN
BEGIN TO RISE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH STRONG WARM
ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW HAS DROPPED VSBY TO MVFR OR BELOW FOR A TIME AT KMGW AND
KLBE AS A SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC. SNOW SHOWERS
ALSO WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT...WITH MVFR TO
IFR THIS EVENING WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OVER
25KTS AND TURNING NORTHWEST WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SCATTERED RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR OHZ039-048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ007>009.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR WVZ003-004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WVZ001-002-021-509>514.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     WVZ512>514.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 122123
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
423 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE PIVOTING ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING SNOW CHANCES IN THE RIDGES AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT
PASSAGE PROGGED FOR THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. BOTH HI RES AND LONGER
RANGE MODEL SOUNDINGS IN BUFKIT SUGGEST A PERIOD WHERE DEEP
MOISTURE...IN A LAYER FROM ABOUT 600MB TO 850MB...WILL BE WELL
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT EFFICIENT
SNOWFALL FOR A PERIOD...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ANTICIPATED
WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT IN UPSLOPE SNOW UNTIL THE WHOLE BOUNDARY
LAYER FALLS WELL BELOW THE GROWTH ZONE. WITH THIS IN MIND...A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE RIDGES OF PRESTON
TUCKER AND GARRETT COUNTIES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE WITH THE TIMING
OF THE SNOW SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL SQUALLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
PROGGED FOR PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE LINE TO BE INTO EASTERN
OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PA BY 00Z AND PITTSBURGH BY 03Z. VARIOUS
RUNS OF THE HRRR AND TO A LESSER DEGREE OTHER SNOW SQUALLS PROGS SUGGEST
THAT THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKENING AS THE LINE COMES ACROSS.
GENERALLY ANTICIPATE A HALF TO AN INCH OF SNOW...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
AND PROVIDE FOR A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AREAWIDE UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY WITH MAXIMUM WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER APPROACHING 25
TO 35KTS. THIS...ADDED TO TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILL VALUES WELL BELOW ZERO. THIS
SUPPORTS THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY THAT WAS ISSUED. 40MPH WIND
GUSTS OVERNIGHT IN THE RIDGES WILL ALLOW VALUES TO GET VERY CLOSE
TO WARNING CRITERIA BUT AT THIS POINT...THE WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO AN ADVISORY WITH SOME -25 VALUES POSSIBLE IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN OF TUCKER COUNTY.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SEVERAL DUAL-LAKE SNOW BANDS. THE LATEST
ITERATION OF MODELS HAS THE MORE PROMINENT BAND SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
SOUTH FROM LAST NIGHT SO WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE ACTUAL PLACEMENT
OF SNOW BANDS...HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH
FOR VENANGO COUNTY TO AN ADVISORY FOR MERCER...VENANGO...AND
FOREST COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL LAKE PLUMES MAY SUPPORT SNOW BEYOND
THESE ADVISORIES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY
IN THEIR PLACEMENT...NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES WERE ADDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AND SHIFT
NORTHWARD AS A SURFACE RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD OVERHEAD FOR
SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE WIND TO BACK OFF...WITH WIND
CHILL CONCERNS DIMINISHING IN OHIO. HOWEVER...WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE AND LIGHT WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL CLOSE TO OR BELOW
ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT...SO ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN AS IS FOR THE REST
OF THE CWA UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A FEW
DEGREES ON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SCATTERING
OF THE CLOUDS. TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
BOTH PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE
MONDAY. BY LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS STILL DIFFER
ON EXACT TRACK BUT SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...BUT ALSO POTENTIAL FOR A MIX WITH
RAIN OR ALL RAIN WHERE BETTER QPF IS FORECAST. FOR NOW HAVE NOT
STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST ALTHOUGH EVEN THE WARMER ECMWF
WRAPS COLD AIR BACK IN LATER TUESDAY SO HAVE KEPT MAINLY SNOW.

SYSTEM EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY FAST MOVING
CLIPPER SYSTEM WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL DELIVER ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW
SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF COLD AIR. HEIGHTS ALOFT THEN
BEGIN TO RISE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH STRONG WARM
ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW HAS DROPPED VSBY TO MVFR OR BELOW FOR A TIME AT KMGW AND
KLBE AS A SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC. SNOW SHOWERS
ALSO WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT...WITH MVFR TO
IFR THIS EVENING WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OVER
25KTS AND TURNING NORTHWEST WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SCATTERED RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR OHZ039-048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ007>009.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR WVZ003-004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WVZ001-002-021-509>514.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     WVZ512>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 122101
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
401 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST THIS EVENING.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING
IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CENTERS 1014MB SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC COAST
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
MOVING ACROSS EAST/SOUTHEAST VA...WITH OBS AND RADAR RETURNS
INDICATING HEAVIEST SNOW OVER NE NC. THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW/SLEET
AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING REMAINS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LIGHT SNOW WILL WIND DOWN ACROSS ERN VA INTO SE
VA BY 5 PM...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT WITH AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 INCH OF SNOWFALL STILL POSSIBLE
BACK INTO ISLE OF WIGHT AND SOUTHAMPTON COUNTIES. THE SFC LOW
DEEPENS AND LIFTS NEWD AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE. SNOW
BAND WILL PIVOT INTO SE VA LATE TODAY BEFORE THE LIGHT SNOW FINALLY
PUSHES OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING. THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY THEN PUSHES
THRU THE REGION THIS EVENING. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THE MD ERN
SHORE TO LIKELY LATE THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALONG THE
ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES. NW WINDS
INCREASE BEHIND THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY...INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH COASTAL AREAS AND THE ERN SHORE. SKY CLEARS
SW TO NE LATE TONIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH LOCATES OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES SAT AS THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES OFFSHORE. POLAR FRONT
PROGGED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE SAT...USHERING IN SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON. H85 TEMPS PLUMMET TO AROUND -18 TO -20C (-2 TO -3 STD
DEV). HIGHS ONLY FORECAST IN THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW 30S SE.
WINDY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 TO
35 MPH. GUSTS OVER THE EASTERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 MPH. WHILE THE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY (DEWPOINTS BELOW
0)...BAY STREAMERS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE. SKY AVERAGES SUNNY
SOUTHWEST TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE IN WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION SAT NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH INLAND...ALLOWING FOR GREAT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS PLUNGING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS INLAND TO UPPER TEENS NEAR THE COAST. WIND CHILL VALUES
GENERALLY 0 TO 5 ABOVE INLAND AND AROUND 5 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD OFF ON WIND CHILL ADVISORY ATTM.

THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SUN...WITH HIGHS ONLY
WARMING INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S (-2 STD DEV). SKY AVERAGES MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH A LIGHT NY WIND. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUN NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. NRN STREAM ENERGY LIFTS
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS MON. SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. POPS INCREASE LATE SUN
NIGHT AS THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM WEAKENS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. AIR MASS WILL EASILY BE COLD ENOUGH SUN
NIGHT FOR ALL SNOW AS LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE MON AS A COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS
ALONG THE COAST AND THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP SOUTH LOW BEGINS TO LIFT
NEWD TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE
NW MONDAY MORNING...WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS ALL BUT SE VA/NE NC MON
AFTERNOON. WAA ALOFT/CRITICAL THICKNESSES STILL INDICATING A CHANGE
OVER FROM SN/IP MON MORNING TO RA CLOSER TO THE COAST MON AFTERNOON.
PTYPE LIKELY TO REMAIN ALL SNOW NW. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME TIMING
AND SPATIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...BUT CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST CALLS FOR 1-2 INCHES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR INTO
CENTRAL VA AND NRN VA...WITH 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12/12Z NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS MONDAY EVENING...THEN RAPIDLY
DEEPENING AS IT LIFTS NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MIXED PCPN COULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING OVER THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD OCCUR IN
THE EVENING...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES SSE. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THE
LONGEST IN THE FAR NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES WHERE SOME POCKETS OF -FZRA
COULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT GENERALLY ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN ARE POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A BAND OF STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT PASSES
OVER THE REGION. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS COULD PRODUCE A MODESTLY
STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR A 3-6HR
PERIOD TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AT LEAST THE MID/UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH LOW 60S POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST...WHILE THE PIEDMONT STRUGGLES TO RISE ABOVE THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. GENERALLY EXPECTING DRIER CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME 20-30% POPS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE N AS A
SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. DRY AND MILD
WEDNESDAY UNDER WNW FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A
COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL...BUT WITHIN -1 ST DEV. A MODERATING TREND COMMENCES LATE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WK SFC LO PRES WILL BE EXITING NC/SC CST THIS AFTN/EVE. BROAD AREA
OF SN TO MOVE ACRS MNLY SE VA/NE NC. PD OF MDT SN PSBL FM ABT
20-23Z/12...ESP AT ECG. ELSW...DRY LO LVL ATMOS XPD TO PREVENT
ANYTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES RIC-SBY.

TROUGH ALOFT TO PUSH ACRS THE RGN TNGT...PTNTL FOR SCT -SN...MNLY
INVOF SBY FM ABT 02-03Z TO 08-09Z/13. OTRW...STRONG CDFNT TO PUSH
ACRS THE RGN OVRNGT. GUSTY NW WNDS TO 25-35 KT TO DEVELOP LT
TNGT/EARLY SAT MRNG...CONTG THROUGH THE DAY SAT. VFR AND DRY WX
WILL PREVAIL SAT THROUGH SUN NGT. PCPN DEVELOPS MONDAY AS THE NEXT
WX SYS APPROACHES FROM THE W. PCPN BEGINS AS SNOW MON MRNG...MNLY
INLAND...BEFORE WARMER AIR WORKS IN AND CHANGES ANY SN TO RA FROM
SE TO NW DURING MON. RA CONTS INTO TUESDAY AS LO PRES TRACKS ACRS
THE AREA. DRY WX RETURNS WED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING ENE OFF THE NC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING
ACROSS THE ERN LAKES...WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT TRAILING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY...AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SPILLING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SN...WHICH WILL
REDUCE VSBY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (MAINLY S). AS THE LOW
LIFTS TO THE NE TONIGHT THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN
FROM THE NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF
35-40KT OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 5-8FT WITH 4-5 FT
WAVES IN THE BAY. GALE FLAGS CONTINUE FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND SPEEDS REMAIN CAPPED
AT HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME. FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED AS
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND TRACKS UP THE PIEDMONT TUESDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODESTLY STRONG SSE WIND AND BUILDING
SEAS/WAVES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES / LOW WATER ADVISORIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NCZ012>014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ015>017-
     030>032-102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ092-
     093-095>098-100-523>525.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ633-635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB/MPR
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 122100
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
400 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS WEEKEND AND THEN MOVE EAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MONDAY AND THEN MOVE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS TUESDAY AND THEN
NORTH INTO CANADA WEDNESDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FLURRIES POSSIBLE POCONOS AND EXTREME SOUTH EDGE OF OUR AREA LATE
THIS DAY AS PER RADAR AND OBS.

TONIGHT...SHALLOW MOIST ADVECTION ON S-SW FLOW PRIOR TO THE CFP.
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES APPEAR PROBABLE FOR A FEW HOURS NEAR
MIDNIGHT AS PER A BLEND OF MODELS AND WPC. HRRR AND HRRX LOOK
ACCEPTABLE AS A TIMING GUIDE. SW WIND MAY GUST 15 MPH EARLY
TONIGHT. THEN A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND GUSTY 20-30 MPH BY
DAWN SATURDAY....POSSIBLE ISOLATED GUSTS 40-45 MPH AT SUNRISE PER
ARRIVING STRONG CAA AND PRES RISES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WIND CHILL ADVY AND WIND ADVY POSTED IN ADDITION TO PRIOR WIND
CHILL WARNING.  SPS FROM YDY NO LONGER NEEDED.

DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER MOMENTUM TRANSFER IS FEATURED ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ONCOMING ARCTIC AIRMASS INVASION. LARGE LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES AND BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER INDICATING A POSSIBILITY OF
FLURRIES OR SQUALLS BUT WILL THE SFC TT/TD SPREAD EXCEED 25F AND
MAKE THOSE SQUALLS JUST VIRGA? SEEMS LIKE BEST CHC FOR A SQUALL
WOULD BE THE MORNING AND IN THE REGION S OF THE PA TURNPIKE.

AM THINKING OF GUSTS 50 MPH IN THE POCONOS AND ALSO SCATTERED 50
MPH GUSTS DEVELOPING IN THE KRDG-KPHL-KILG KACY AND NORTH SIDE OF
DE BAY SLOT FOR THE AFTN. WIND ADVY ISSUED. NOT SURE HOW MANY
NOTICED BUT THE NAM AND OP ECMWF HAVE BEEN A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE
ON WIND. JUST LOOKS LIKE TOO DEEP A MIXED LAYER TO AVOID CONNECTING
A FEW EDDIES OF 50 KT GUSTS DOWN FROM 6000 TO 7000 FT ALOFT. THE
INVERSION SINKS TO NEAR 850 MB LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY.

STRONGEST WINDS ASIDE FROM THE INITIAL BURST NEAR 11-12Z, MAY BE
LATE AFTN AND EVENING. FOR NOW WANTED TO LIMIT ADVY ONLY TO THE
DAY AND IF ITS GUSTING 40 KT AT 3 PM SATURDAY, THEN SUSPECT IT CAN
GUST 40-45 KT THROUGH 10 PM. CONFIDENCE ON VERIFICATION IS
AVERAGE. THIS COULD BE OVERDONE BUT HAVE SEEN REPEATEDLY THE POCS
WIND MATCH THE OVERWATER WIND NEAR 44065, AND NW FLOW STRONGEST
GUSTS NEAR A RDG-PHL LINE. ALSO ADDED MD E SHORE ALONG THE STILL
WARM CHES BAY AND DELAWARE ALONG THE BAY FROM WILMINGTON TO LEWES
WHERE I THINK SOME HEFTY GUSTS COULD ADD TO THE CHILL.

OTHERWISE WIDESPREAD GUSTS 40 MPH SATURDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES .. TENDING TO CLEAR LATE DAY.

WINDS WERE DERIVED FROM THE GFS, THE TEMPS FROM THE NAM MOS BLENDED
WITH THE 2M TEMPS OF THE 12Z GFS/NAM. HRRX INDICATED NEAR 0 AT KMPO
AT 17Z SATURDAY...WITHOUT A WIND CHILL. CANT SEE IT MORE THAN 17F
AT PHL AT 18Z SAT...MAYBE EVEN A DEGREE OR 2 COLDER?.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE HEART OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL
READINGS WILL BE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES SAT NIGHT AROUND -10 ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND CLOSER TO
5 DEGREES ACROSS THE METRO PHILLY AREAS AND OVER THE DELMARVA. HIGH
TEMPS SUNDAY IN THE TEENS MOST AREAS...BUT SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE
SRN POCONOS. WIND CHILL READINGS -20 TO -32 FAR NORTH AND -5 TO -10
OVER THE DELMARVA.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE SOUTH MONDAY AND MOVE
UP THE INLAND EAST COAST TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM
THAT SEEMS TO BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AMONGST THE OP MODELS
FAVOR A LOW TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN PART OF OUR AREA. THIS
WILL ALLOW A DECENT FLOW OF WARMER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AS SNOW...BUT WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN LATER MON NIGHT AND REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN TUESDAY. THE
QPF COULD BE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN MANY AREAS. THERE IS ALSO
SOME CHC FOR AN ACCUMULATING SNOW MONDAY ACROSS (MOST LIKELY)
ERN/NERN PA BEFORE THE CHANGE TO RAIN. EARLIEST PREDICTIONS FOR SNOW
ACCUMS WOULD BE AROUND 1-3 INCHES AT THIS POINT. THE DETAILS WILL BE
TUNED UP AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES.

THE STORM MOVES UP INTO CANADA WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER COOLER AIR FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS EVENING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE TERMINALS.

TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE WEST. AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS TO DEVELOP
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH ALL TERMINALS. VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
TO MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE SNOW SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. ONCE THE
SHOWERS CLEAR THE REGION, BETWEEN 05-09Z FROM WEST TO EAST, A RETURN
TO VFR CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED. SNOW SHOWERS MAY DISSIPATE BEFORE
FULLY REACHING KACY AND KMIV BUT LATEST GUIDANCE LEADS US TO INCLUDE
THE SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.

SATURDAY...THE BIGGEST ISSUE AFFECTING AVIATION TRAVEL ON SATURDAY
WILL BE THE WINDS. BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT, THE WINDS
WILL QUICKLY TURN TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST AND BECOME VERY GUSTY.
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15-20 KNOTS BY 12-15Z AND INCREASE
INTO THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS FROM 25 KNOTS EARLY WILL INCREASE TO
NEAR 40 KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST
WINDS 10 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 30-35 KNOTS EARLY, DIMINISHING
SOME OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GUSTS STILL 20-25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...DEGRADING CONDITIONS WITH MVFR/IFR LIKELY
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW POSSIBLY
BEGINNING MONDAY FOR MANY AREAS, POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN AT
TIMES FOR SOME AREAS.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. WINDY.

WEDNESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS. WINDY.

&&

.MARINE...
LULL IN THE WIND AND SEAS WILL END SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

GALES AND FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS-ADVISORIES POSTED. THE HEAVIEST
FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE MIDNIGHT TO 7 AM ALONG THE SHORE WHERE SSTS
NOW DOWN TO ABOUT 35-36F AND USED 35 FOR THE ZY THRESHOLD.

ISOLATED 50 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE SATURDAY IN FUNNELED NW WIND DOWN DE
BAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING CONTINUES WITH STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT AS VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING AND FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE DAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
LIKELY...GALES POSSIBLE AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EAST
COAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BEFORE EVERYONE HEADS INTO THE WEEKEND, I WANTED TO BRING NEXT
WEEK`S STORM INTO LIGHT AND MENTION THAT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING ACROSS THE HSA. THERE`S STILL A LOT THAT NEEDS TO UNFOLD,
BUT THE 5-DAY WPC QPF OF 1.50 TO 2.50 INCHES OF LIQUID COMBINED WITH
ANOTHER 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF SWE ON THE GROUND WOULD VERY LIKELY
CAUSE NUISANCE LOW-LYING FLOODING AND POSSIBLY SOME MINOR TO
MODERATE RIVER FLOODING (RIVERS ASSOCIATED WITH OUR FORECAST
POINTS). THIS ASSUMES MOST, IF NOT ALL, THE PRECIPITATION FALLS AS
RAIN.

THE UNCERTAINTY THIS AFTERNOON IS LARGE. YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME, THE
PRECIPITATION WAS HEAVIEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. NOW IT`S LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BESIDES TIMING, TRACK IS QUITE DIFFERENT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO WITH THE EURO BEING FURTHER WEST AND MORE
LIQUIDY. TRACK WILL PLAY A ROLE IN TEMPS AND NOT ONLY AFFECT WHAT
TYPE OF PRECIPITATION FALLS, BUT ALSO AFFECT WHAT REMAINING SWE
MELTS. THERE`S ABOUT 0.25 TO 0.50 SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA. I CAN
SAY WE ARE IN A BETTER SPOT THAN ON THE 3RD AND 4TH WHEN THERE WAS
IN EXCESS OF 2.00 OF SWE ALONG THE I-78 CORRIDOR. AS AN FYI, ONE OF
THE MAIN REASONS WE DIDN`T SEE THE FLOODING, THAT MODELS SUGGESTED,
ON THE 3RD AND 4TH WAS BECAUSE ALL THE SWE DID NOT RAPIDLY COME OUT
OF THE SNOWPACK. SNOWMELT CAN BE A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK.

WHILE THE LACK OF SWE IS LOOKING BETTER ACROSS THE HSA, NOT ALL THE
RIVERS HAVE RECEDED BACK TO WHERE THEY WERE PRIOR TO THE 3RD. SO
RIVERS WILL START HIGHER AND THE COLD THIS WEEKEND WILL SURELY GET
THE GROUND HARD FOR A VERY EFFICIENT RUNOFF.

SO THE TAKE AWAY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND IS TO UNDERSTAND THAT IF
THE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY (OR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY) EVENT IS ALL
LIQUID ACROSS THE AREA, LOW-LYING, POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS LIKELY
AND MINOR TO MODERATE RIVER FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. IF THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS OFF AS SNOW OR ICE, THE FLOODING THREAT
DECREASES. IF ALL SNOW FALLS, WE`RE POTENTIALLY JUST KICKING THE CAN
DOWN THE ROAD FOR FUTURE FLOODING. TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS STILL EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING, DESPITE THE MOS GUIDANCE...AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON SO FAR.

BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY:
KABE, KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE 14TH,
IF THEN. THOSE HAVE BEEN ADDED RECENTLY BELOW.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH ----RER LOW MAX
---------------------- --------------------

ABE             8                         -1 IN 1979     14-1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979     13-1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979     14-1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979     13-1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     060-061-070-071-101>106.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NJZ007>010-012>027.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NJZ001-014-
     016>027.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NJZ001.
DE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     DEZ001-002.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     MDZ008-012.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-020.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO 9
     AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ430-431-454-455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG 4P
SHORT TERM...DRAG 4P
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA 4P
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA 4P
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 122018
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
318 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND THEN MOVE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY
AND THEN MOVE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS TUESDAY AND THEN NORTH INTO
CANADA WEDNESDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
930 AM ESTF: FEW CHANGES. A NICE DAY. INCREASING THEN LOWERING
CIRRUS TO A DECK OF CLOUDS NEAR 5000 FT LATE IN THE DAY. WIND
TURNING SOUTHWEST WITH A FEW LATE DAY GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH.

FLURRIES POSSIBLE POCONOS AND EXTREME SOUTH EDGE OF OUR AREA LATE
IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...SHALLOW MOIST ADVECTION ON S-SW FLOW PRIOR TO THE CFP.
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES APPEAR PROBABLE FOR A FEW HOURS NEAR
MIDNIGHT. SW WIND MAY GUST 15 MPH EARLY TONIGHT. THEN A WIND SHIFT
TO NORTHWEST AND GUSTY 20-30 MPH BY DAWN SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WIND CHILL ADVY WILL POST THIS AFTN, TO CONNECT TO THE ALREADY POSTED
WIND CHILL WARNING FOR EXTREME NW NJ AND THE POCONOS. STILL WANT
TO REVIEW THE UPDATED DETAILS.

DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER MOMENTUM TRANSFER IS FEATURED ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ONCOMING ARCTIC AIRMASS INVASION. LARGE LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES AND BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER INDICATING A POSSIBILITY OF
FLURRIES OR SQUALLS BUT WILL THE SFC TT/TD SPREAD EXCEED 25F AND
MAKE THOSE SQUALLS JUST VIRGA? SEEMS LIKE BEST CHC FOR A SQUALL
WOULD BE THE MORNING.

AM THINKING OF GUSTS 50 MPH IN THE POCONOS AND ALSO SCATTERED 50
MPH GUSTS DEVELOPING IN THE KRDG-KPHL-KILG KACY AND NORTH SIDE OF
DE BAY SLOT FOR THE AFTN. MAY ISSUE A WIND ADVY FOR THIS AT 330 PM
(POTENTIAL WIND ADVY NOON - 6P).

OTHERWISE WIDESPREAD GUSTS 40 MPH SATURDAY WITH PARTLY O MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES .. TENDING TO CLEAR LATE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THE HEART OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL
READINGS WILL BE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES SAT NIGHT AROUND -10 ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND CLOSER TO
5 DEGREES ACROSS THE METRO PHILLY AREAS AND OVER THE DELMARVA. HIGH
TEMPS SUNDAY IN THE TEENS MOST AREAS...BUT SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE
SRN POCONOS. WIND CHILL READINGS -20 TO -32 FAR NORTH AND -5 TO -10
OVER THE DELMARVA.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE SOUTH MONDAY AND MOVE
UP THE INLAND EAST COAST TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM
THAT SEEMS TO BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AMONGST THE OP MODELS
FAVOR A LOW TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN PART OF OUR AREA. THIS
WILL ALLOW A DECENT FLOW OF WARMER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AS SNOW...BUT WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN LATER MON NIGHT AND REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN TUESDAY. THE
QPF COULD BE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN MANY AREAS. THERE IS ALSO
SOME CHC FOR AN ACCUMULATING SNOW MONDAY ACROSS (MOST LIKELY)
ERN/NERN PA BEFORE THE CHANGE TO RAIN. EARLIEST PREDICTIONS FOR SNOW
ACCUMS WOULD BE AROUND 1-3 INCHES AT THIS POINT. THE DETAILS WILL BE
TUNED UP AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES.

THE STORM MOVES UP INTO CANADA WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER COOLER AIR FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS EVENING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE TERMINALS.

TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE WEST. AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS TO DEVELOP
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH ALL TERMINALS. VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
TO MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE SNOW SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. ONCE THE
SHOWERS CLEAR THE REGION, BETWEEN 05-09Z FROM WEST TO EAST, A RETURN
TO VFR CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED. SNOW SHOWERS MAY DISSIPATE BEFORE
FULLY REACHING KACY AND KMIV BUT LATEST GUIDANCE LEADS US TO INCLUDE
THE SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.

SATURDAY...THE BIGGEST ISSUE AFFECTING AVIATION TRAVEL ON SATURDAY
WILL BE THE WINDS. BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT, THE WINDS
WILL QUICKLY TURN TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST AND BECOME VERY GUSTY.
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15-20 KNOTS BY 12-15Z AND INCREASE
INTO THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS FROM 25 KNOTS EARLY WILL INCREASE TO
NEAR 40 KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST
WINDS 10 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 30-35 KNOTS EARLY, DIMINISHING
SOME OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GUSTS STILL 20-25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...DEGRADING CONDITIONS WITH MVFR/IFR LIKELY
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW POSSIBLY
BEGINNING MONDAY FOR MANY AREAS, POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN AT
TIMES FOR SOME AREAS.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. WINDY.

WEDNESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS. WINDY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHOULD SEE A LULL IN THE WINDS AND SEAS TODAY AND THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT BUT EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE CONSIDERABLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT, REACHING GALE FORCE ON ALL THE WATERS BEFORE DAWN.
WITH THE INCREASING WINDS, ALSO EXPECT FREEZING SPRAY RATES TO
INCREASE, SO HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FOR THE SAME
PERIOD AS WELL.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING CONTINUES WITH STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT AS VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING AND FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE DAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
LIKELY...GALES POSSIBLE AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EAST
COAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BEFORE EVERYONE HEADS INTO THE WEEKEND, I WANTED TO BRING NEXT
WEEK`S STORM INTO LIGHT AND MENTION THAT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING ACROSS THE HSA. THERE`S STILL A LOT THAT NEEDS TO UNFOLD,
BUT THE 5-DAY WPC QPF OF 1.50 TO 2.50 INCHES OF LIQUID COMBINED WITH
ANOTHER 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF SWE ON THE GROUND WOULD VERY LIKELY
CAUSE NUISANCE LOW-LYING FLOODING AND POSSIBLY SOME MINOR TO
MODERATE RIVER FLOODING (RIVERS ASSOCIATED WITH OUR FORECAST
POINTS). THIS ASSUMES MOST, IF NOT ALL, THE PRECIPITATION FALLS AS
RAIN.

THE UNCERTAINTY THIS AFTERNOON IS LARGE. YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME, THE
PRECIPITATION WAS HEAVIEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. NOW IT`S LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BESIDES TIMING, TRACK IS QUITE DIFFERENT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO WITH THE EURO BEING FURTHER WEST AND MORE
LIQUIDY. TRACK WILL PLAY A ROLE IN TEMPS AND NOT ONLY AFFECT WHAT
TYPE OF PRECIPITATION FALLS, BUT ALSO AFFECT WHAT REMAINING SWE
MELTS. THERE`S ABOUT 0.25 TO 0.50 SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA. I CAN
SAY WE ARE IN A BETTER SPOT THAN ON THE 3RD AND 4TH WHEN THERE WAS
IN EXCESS OF 2.00 OF SWE ALONG THE I-78 CORRIDOR. AS AN FYI, ONE OF
THE MAIN REASONS WE DIDN`T SEE THE FLOODING, THAT MODELS SUGGESTED,
ON THE 3RD AND 4TH WAS BECAUSE ALL THE SWE DID NOT RAPIDLY COME OUT
OF THE SNOWPACK. SNOWMELT CAN BE A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK.

WHILE THE LACK OF SWE IS LOOKING BETTER ACROSS THE HSA, NOT ALL THE
RIVERS HAVE RECEDED BACK TO WHERE THEY WERE PRIOR TO THE 3RD. SO
RIVERS WILL START HIGHER AND THE COLD THIS WEEKEND WILL SURELY GET
THE GROUND HARD FOR A VERY EFFICIENT RUNOFF.

SO THE TAKE AWAY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND IS TO UNDERSTAND THAT IF
THE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY (OR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY) EVENT IS ALL
LIQUID ACROSS THE AREA, LOW-LYING, POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS LIKELY
AND MINOR TO MODERATE RIVER FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. IF THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS OFF AS SNOW OR ICE, THE FLOODING THREAT
DECREASES. IF ALL SNOW FALLS, WE`RE POTENTIALLY JUST KICKING THE CAN
DOWN THE ROAD FOR FUTURE FLOODING. TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS STILL EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING, DESPITE THE MOS GUIDANCE...AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN SEVERAL DEGREES
OF 2 ABOVE (WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 8
AM SUNDAY EXCEPT COLDER KMPO (NEAR -10F). THIS IS 2F WARMER THAN
EXPECTED THE PAST FEW DAYS.

TRACKING NAM 3HRLY 2M, BL AND 1000MB TEMPS AND IT IS MUCH COLDER
THAN THE GLOBAL MODELS MOS. NAM HAS BEEN STEADY THE PAST 4 CYCLES.
PHL+2 (-19C 1000MB), MPO -11 (-23C). USING THE NAM GUIDANCE AND
POSSIBLE BLEND WITH 2M NAM/GFS TEMPS SAT AFTN.

BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY:
KABE, KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE 14TH,
IF THEN. THOSE HAVE BEEN ADDED RECENTLY BELOW.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH ----RER LOW MAX
---------------------- --------------------

ABE             8                         -1 IN 1979     14-1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979     13-1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979     14-1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979     13-1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     060-061-070-071-101>106.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NJZ007>010-012>027.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NJZ001-014-
     016>027.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NJZ001.
DE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     DEZ001-002.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     MDZ008-012.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-020.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO 9
     AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ430-431-454-455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO
CLIMATE...



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KLWX 121902
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
202 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE
WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A POTENT COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL PASS
THROUGH OUR AREA TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALONG WITH FORCING FROM
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS
AND THIS EVENING FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT GIVEN THE RECENT COLD
CONDITIONS EVEN A LITTLE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL CAUSE SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED SURFACES. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS THIS
EVENING. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG COLD
ADVECTION AND AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
CAUSE ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THIS AREA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST LATE TONIGHT WHILE ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY. STRONG COLD
ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES WILL CAUSE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE
COMBINATION OF VERY COLD AIR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CAUSE WIND CHILL
VALUES TO DIP WELL BELOW ZERO OVER THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS AND
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. ELSEWHERE...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DROP TO
BETWEEN -5 DEGREES AND 5 DEGREES. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION SUGGESTS THAT A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. COVERAGE WOULD BE
LOCALIZED...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW MAY COAT THE GROUND
IN A FEW SPOTS OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO ISSUED FOR NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THE PRESSURE SURGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TOWARD THE REGION
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE EVENTUALLY BUILDING
OVERHEAD LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. VERY COLD CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME ALONG WITH DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILLS. THE WIND CHILL HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. ADDITIONAL WIND CHILL HEADLINES
MAY BE NEEDED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY DUE TO STRONG COLD ADVECTION. ANY ACCUMULATION WOULD BE
LOCALIZED...BUT A QUICK COATING OF SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT ON SATURDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED. THE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS ON SATURDAY AS WELL. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD.

MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S NEAR WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE. MIN TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM BELOW ZERO IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.
MAX TEMPS SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
20S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WHILE
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE LOW PRESSURE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. DESPITE THE LOW BEING FAR AWAY
FROM THE AREA...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF WARM AND MOIST AIR
OVERRUNNING THE ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN PLENTY
OF CLOUDS ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES MONDAY WHILE THE
HIGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST. WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO OVERRUN THE COLD AIR IN PLACE...RESULTING IN MORE
SNOW. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS UP THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MORE PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY OVER
THE AREA. HOWEVER...WARMER AIR WILL CAUSE A CHANGE OVER TO A
WINTRY MIX AND PERHAPS EVEN OVER TO ALL RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME DUE TO GUIDANCE
DIFFERING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW.

IF THE LOW IS STRONGER IT WILL LIKELY TRACK FARTHER WEST CAUSING
WARMER AIR TO MOVE IN QUICKER. THIS WOULD KEEP THE THREAT FOR
WINTRY MIX/ICE LOW. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW IS WEAKER IT WILL TRACK
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WOULD KEEP LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR
IN PLACE WHICH COULD LEAD TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WINTRY MIX/ICE.
AS OF NOW...THE FORECAST LEANS SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE LATTER SOLUTION
SINCE SCOURING OUT OF THE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR WILL BE DIFFICULT.

BOTTOM LINE...IT IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE
ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH A CHANGE
OVER TO A WINTRY MIX MONDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY RAIN LATE MONDAY
NIGHT OR DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE...AND THIS WOULD IMPACT TRAVEL MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY.

THE LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA LATER TUESDAY AND
DRIER AIR MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS
OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING.
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BRIEF
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY SNOW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. GUSTS 35 TO 40 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. A
COUPLE SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THIS TIME...BUT
MUCH OF THE TIME SHOULD BE DRY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND
WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THIS TIME. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
THE TERMINALS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL LIKELY
BREAK OUT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BEFORE CHANGING TO A
WINTRY MIX MONDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY RAIN TUESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY DURING THIS TIME. THE LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE AWAY FROM
THE AREA LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
POTENT COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS TONIGHT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS. THE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS LATER SUNDAY BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY
IMPACT THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING AWAY FROM
THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CAUSE TIDAL ANOMALIES TO BE AROUND 2
FEET BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EST
     TONIGHT FOR DCZ001.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR MDZ502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EST
     TONIGHT FOR MDZ004>006-011-013-014-016-503>508.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ003>006-
     011-013-014-016>018-503>508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ501.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR MDZ501.
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR VAZ504-507-508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EST
     TONIGHT FOR VAZ052>056-501-502-505-506.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR VAZ028-031-
     052>054-505-506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR VAZ503.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR VAZ503.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WVZ050-055-502-504-506.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ051>053.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ501-503-
     505.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WVZ501-503-505.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ530>543.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...BJL/KLW
MARINE...BJL/KLW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 121852
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
152 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
MORNING...LIFTING NORTHEAST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA
COASTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ONLY A FEW ADJUSTMENTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE RADAR RETURNS
ARE MATCHING UP WELL WITH CURRENT FORECAST. THE EXCEPTION IS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WHERE TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SNOW WILL
HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME PUSHING NWD INTO RICHMOND AND LOCATIONS
NORTH AND WEST. A DUSTING IS STILL POSSIBLE...BUT ADDITIONAL
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL WILL BE DIFFICULT. ANOTHER CHANGE IS TO
INCREASE ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE ERN SHORE TONIGHT AS THE ARCTIC
FRONT PUSHES THRU. AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS NOW EXPECTED OVER
THE MD ERN SHORE...REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ATTM. ALSO
NUDGED DAYTIME TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGS.

PREV DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE SC COAST THIS MORNING. RADAR
RETURNS DEPICTING CONVECTION AROUND THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE LOW.
RADAR RETURNS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ARE ELEVATED AND NOT REACHING THE
GROUND AS THE SUB CLOUD LAYER REMAINS QUITE DRY THANKS TO HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...THE LATEST RETURNS
ARE ALREADY INDICATING WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND WILL LIKELY SET
UP...ACROSS SE VA/NE NC. ALOFT...LATEST GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
RAOB PLOTS DEPICT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE MID MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY.
THIS SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES THRU THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH HEIGHT FALLS FURTHER DEEPENING THE SFC LOW OFF THE SC
COAST. THIS WILL LIKELY PUSH THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND SWWD
SLIGHTLY...WITH THE ADDED DYNAMICS DEEPENING THE MOISTURE FIELDS.
THIS IS HANDLED WELL IN THE BUFR SOUNDINGS AND ISENTROPIC FIELDS.
EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN FALLING BY LATE MORNING TO AROUND NOON ACROSS
NE NC/EXTREME SE VA...SPREADING NWD THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. STILL
REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE SPREAD WITH REGARDS TO
QPF...WHICH WILL OF COURSE HAVE IMPACTS ON TOTAL SNOWFALL. TAKING A
BLEND OF THE FAVORED SHORT TERM GUIDANCE STILL YIELDS A QPF FORECAST
SIMILAR TO 24 HOURS AGO. THUS THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF 10-15:1
SNOWFALL IS STILL FAVORED OVER NE NC AROUND THE ALBEMARLE SOUND.
AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES ARE STILL EXPECTED...WITH SOME BANDING
EXPECTED AS NAM12 DEPICTS BEST FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THAT REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOCALIZED 5 INCH
AMOUNTS. AMOUNTS TAPER OFF TO 1 TO 3 INCHES INTO HAMPTON ROADS AND
TOWARDS SOUTHAMPTON AND ISLE OF WIGHT COUNTIES. BASED ON
AFOREMENTIONED QPF DISCREPANCIES...THERE STILL REMAINS A QUESTION OF
HOW FAR NORTH LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE
AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND LIFTS ALONG THE COAST EARLY AFTERNOON.
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AS BETTER FORCING ARRIVES
OVER CENTRAL VA. MOISTURE IS NOT AS DEEP INTO CENTRAL VA...BUT
THERMAL PROFILES/CROSS SECTIONS STILL INDICATE HIGH RH/ICE IN THE
SNOW GROWTH ZONE WITH PLENTY OF OMEGA. BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER LEVELS...STILL THINKING THIS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR LIGHT SNOW
INTO THE TRI-CITIES AND RICHMOND AREA. HOWEVER...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
WILL TAPER OFF TO LESS THAN HALF AN INCH TOWARDS RICHMOND DUE TO
SHORT DURATION. COLD SURFACE/ROADWAYS WILL ALLOW ANY SNOW THAT FALLS
TO ACCUMULATE ON THE ROADWAYS...SO DRIVING WILL STILL BE IMPACTED.
FARTHER NORTHWEST OF RICHMOND COULD SEE JUST A DUSTING.

TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE MID 30S TODAY THANKS TO
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP.

SNOW COMES TO AN END THIS EVENG/EARLY TNGT...AS THE SFC LO PUSHES
WELL ENE OF THE MID-ATLC CST AND THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES THRU THE
REGION. CLEARING SW TO NE LATE TONIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW/ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR VORTEX DIGS
OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. ~1040MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE MIDWEST...USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDY SAT WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH (STRONGER NEAR THE COAST AND
OVER THE EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS SAT FORECAST TO WARM ONLY INTO THE
MID 20S NW TO LOW 30S SE (-2 STD DEV) UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE TEENS...RESULTING IN A
RAW/COLD/WINDY DAY. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS SAT NIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE INLAND AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...BUT WIND CHILLS STILL FORECAST IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
INLAND TO 0 TO 8 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN SHORE. THE HIGH CENTERS
OVER THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WITH NLY WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. SLIGHTLY
COLDER SUN WITH DECREASED MIXING. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER
20S (-2 STD DEV) UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ATTENTION
TURNING TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. THERE
REMAINS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS...ALTHOUGH
THE 11/12Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING SLOWER...AND WARMER FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. THE 11/12Z GFS CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PCPN MONDAY AS A NRN STREAM TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WOULD MAINLY FALL AS SN OR SN/IP...WITH A TRANSITION TO
RA CLOSER TO THE COAST BY AFTERNOON. SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT WOULD
GENERALLY RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO RA MONDAY NIGHT...ASIDE FROM THE
FAR NW WHERE MIXED PCPN COULD PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH AN
IN-SITU WEDGE IN PLACE. THE LATEST DATA SCOURS OUT THE WEDGE BY
AFTERNOON WITH P-TYPE BECOMING RA EVEN IN THE FAR NW. DRYING OCCURS
MIDWEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE
CLIPPING THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
OF COOLER AIR AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS MONDAY WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW 30S ALONG
AND W OF I-95...WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW 40S. TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY MONDAY EVENING AND BEGIN TO RISE
OVERNIGHT EVENTUALLY WARMING INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S...FOLLOWED BY
LOW 40S NE...TO UPPER 40S SW THURSDAY. MORNING LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WK SFC LO PRES WILL BE EXITING NC/SC CST THIS AFTN/EVE. BROAD AREA
OF SN TO MOVE ACRS MNLY SE VA/NE NC. PD OF MDT SN PSBL FM ABT
20-23Z/12...ESP AT ECG. ELSW...DRY LO LVL ATMOS XPD TO PREVENT
ANYTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES RIC-SBY.

TROUGH ALOFT TO PUSH ACRS THE RGN TNGT...PTNTL FOR SCT -SN...MNLY
INVOF SBY FM ABT 02-03Z TO 08-09Z/13. OTRW...STRONG CDFNT TO PUSH
ACRS THE RGN OVRNGT. GUSTY NW WNDS TO 25-35 KT TO DEVELOP LT
TNGT/EARLY SAT MRNG...CONTG THROUGH THE DAY SAT. VFR AND DRY WX
WILL PREVAIL SAT THROUGH SUN NGT. PCPN DEVELOPS MONDAY AS THE NEXT
WX SYS APPROACHES FROM THE W. PCPN BEGINS AS SNOW MON MRNG...MNLY
INLAND...BEFORE WARMER AIR WORKS IN AND CHANGES ANY SN TO RA FROM
SE TO NW DURING MON. RA CONTS INTO TUESDAY AS LO PRES TRACKS ACRS
THE AREA. DRY WX RETURNS WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES TODAY AS THE MARINE AREA WINDS WILL GNRLY BE AOB 15KTS
AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRS PROGGED TO MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW WILL NOT BRING ANY WIND RELATED MARINE
HEADLINES...THE ASSCTD PCPN WILL BRING REDUCED VSBYS IN SNOW/SLEET
OF VARYING INTENSITIES LATE THIS AFTRN AND EVE.

AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-40KT OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO
5-8FT WITH 4-5 FT WAVES IN THE BAY. GALE FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR
LATE TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND
SPEEDS HAVE BEEN CAPPED AT HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME.

EXPANDED THE FREEZING SPRAY WINDOW TO INCLUDE SAT...SAT NITE AND SUN
MORN GIVEN FCSTD WND SPEEDS / GUSTS COMBINED WITH AIR TMPS BELOW 30
DEGREES. LIMITED THE FREEZING SPRAY TO THE MORE OPEN CHES BAY AND
CSTL WATER AREAS. PER COORD WITH PHL...HOISTED FREEZING SPRAY ADVSRY
FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL. THIS MEANS LIGHT TO MDT ACCUMULATION OF
ICE CAN BE EXPECTED ON VESSELS.

THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES
ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES / LOW WATER ADVISORIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NCZ012>014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ015>017-
     030>032-102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ092-
     093-095>098-100-523>525.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ633-635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB/MPR
MARINE...MPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 121852
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
152 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
MORNING...LIFTING NORTHEAST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA
COASTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ONLY A FEW ADJUSTMENTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE RADAR RETURNS
ARE MATCHING UP WELL WITH CURRENT FORECAST. THE EXCEPTION IS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WHERE TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SNOW WILL
HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME PUSHING NWD INTO RICHMOND AND LOCATIONS
NORTH AND WEST. A DUSTING IS STILL POSSIBLE...BUT ADDITIONAL
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL WILL BE DIFFICULT. ANOTHER CHANGE IS TO
INCREASE ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE ERN SHORE TONIGHT AS THE ARCTIC
FRONT PUSHES THRU. AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS NOW EXPECTED OVER
THE MD ERN SHORE...REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ATTM. ALSO
NUDGED DAYTIME TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGS.

PREV DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE SC COAST THIS MORNING. RADAR
RETURNS DEPICTING CONVECTION AROUND THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE LOW.
RADAR RETURNS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ARE ELEVATED AND NOT REACHING THE
GROUND AS THE SUB CLOUD LAYER REMAINS QUITE DRY THANKS TO HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...THE LATEST RETURNS
ARE ALREADY INDICATING WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND WILL LIKELY SET
UP...ACROSS SE VA/NE NC. ALOFT...LATEST GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
RAOB PLOTS DEPICT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE MID MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY.
THIS SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES THRU THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH HEIGHT FALLS FURTHER DEEPENING THE SFC LOW OFF THE SC
COAST. THIS WILL LIKELY PUSH THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND SWWD
SLIGHTLY...WITH THE ADDED DYNAMICS DEEPENING THE MOISTURE FIELDS.
THIS IS HANDLED WELL IN THE BUFR SOUNDINGS AND ISENTROPIC FIELDS.
EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN FALLING BY LATE MORNING TO AROUND NOON ACROSS
NE NC/EXTREME SE VA...SPREADING NWD THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. STILL
REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE SPREAD WITH REGARDS TO
QPF...WHICH WILL OF COURSE HAVE IMPACTS ON TOTAL SNOWFALL. TAKING A
BLEND OF THE FAVORED SHORT TERM GUIDANCE STILL YIELDS A QPF FORECAST
SIMILAR TO 24 HOURS AGO. THUS THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF 10-15:1
SNOWFALL IS STILL FAVORED OVER NE NC AROUND THE ALBEMARLE SOUND.
AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES ARE STILL EXPECTED...WITH SOME BANDING
EXPECTED AS NAM12 DEPICTS BEST FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THAT REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOCALIZED 5 INCH
AMOUNTS. AMOUNTS TAPER OFF TO 1 TO 3 INCHES INTO HAMPTON ROADS AND
TOWARDS SOUTHAMPTON AND ISLE OF WIGHT COUNTIES. BASED ON
AFOREMENTIONED QPF DISCREPANCIES...THERE STILL REMAINS A QUESTION OF
HOW FAR NORTH LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE
AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND LIFTS ALONG THE COAST EARLY AFTERNOON.
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AS BETTER FORCING ARRIVES
OVER CENTRAL VA. MOISTURE IS NOT AS DEEP INTO CENTRAL VA...BUT
THERMAL PROFILES/CROSS SECTIONS STILL INDICATE HIGH RH/ICE IN THE
SNOW GROWTH ZONE WITH PLENTY OF OMEGA. BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER LEVELS...STILL THINKING THIS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR LIGHT SNOW
INTO THE TRI-CITIES AND RICHMOND AREA. HOWEVER...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
WILL TAPER OFF TO LESS THAN HALF AN INCH TOWARDS RICHMOND DUE TO
SHORT DURATION. COLD SURFACE/ROADWAYS WILL ALLOW ANY SNOW THAT FALLS
TO ACCUMULATE ON THE ROADWAYS...SO DRIVING WILL STILL BE IMPACTED.
FARTHER NORTHWEST OF RICHMOND COULD SEE JUST A DUSTING.

TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE MID 30S TODAY THANKS TO
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP.

SNOW COMES TO AN END THIS EVENG/EARLY TNGT...AS THE SFC LO PUSHES
WELL ENE OF THE MID-ATLC CST AND THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES THRU THE
REGION. CLEARING SW TO NE LATE TONIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW/ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR VORTEX DIGS
OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. ~1040MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE MIDWEST...USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDY SAT WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH (STRONGER NEAR THE COAST AND
OVER THE EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS SAT FORECAST TO WARM ONLY INTO THE
MID 20S NW TO LOW 30S SE (-2 STD DEV) UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE TEENS...RESULTING IN A
RAW/COLD/WINDY DAY. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS SAT NIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE INLAND AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...BUT WIND CHILLS STILL FORECAST IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
INLAND TO 0 TO 8 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN SHORE. THE HIGH CENTERS
OVER THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WITH NLY WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. SLIGHTLY
COLDER SUN WITH DECREASED MIXING. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER
20S (-2 STD DEV) UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ATTENTION
TURNING TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. THERE
REMAINS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS...ALTHOUGH
THE 11/12Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING SLOWER...AND WARMER FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. THE 11/12Z GFS CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PCPN MONDAY AS A NRN STREAM TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WOULD MAINLY FALL AS SN OR SN/IP...WITH A TRANSITION TO
RA CLOSER TO THE COAST BY AFTERNOON. SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT WOULD
GENERALLY RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO RA MONDAY NIGHT...ASIDE FROM THE
FAR NW WHERE MIXED PCPN COULD PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH AN
IN-SITU WEDGE IN PLACE. THE LATEST DATA SCOURS OUT THE WEDGE BY
AFTERNOON WITH P-TYPE BECOMING RA EVEN IN THE FAR NW. DRYING OCCURS
MIDWEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE
CLIPPING THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
OF COOLER AIR AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS MONDAY WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW 30S ALONG
AND W OF I-95...WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW 40S. TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY MONDAY EVENING AND BEGIN TO RISE
OVERNIGHT EVENTUALLY WARMING INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S...FOLLOWED BY
LOW 40S NE...TO UPPER 40S SW THURSDAY. MORNING LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WK SFC LO PRES WILL BE EXITING NC/SC CST THIS AFTN/EVE. BROAD AREA
OF SN TO MOVE ACRS MNLY SE VA/NE NC. PD OF MDT SN PSBL FM ABT
20-23Z/12...ESP AT ECG. ELSW...DRY LO LVL ATMOS XPD TO PREVENT
ANYTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES RIC-SBY.

TROUGH ALOFT TO PUSH ACRS THE RGN TNGT...PTNTL FOR SCT -SN...MNLY
INVOF SBY FM ABT 02-03Z TO 08-09Z/13. OTRW...STRONG CDFNT TO PUSH
ACRS THE RGN OVRNGT. GUSTY NW WNDS TO 25-35 KT TO DEVELOP LT
TNGT/EARLY SAT MRNG...CONTG THROUGH THE DAY SAT. VFR AND DRY WX
WILL PREVAIL SAT THROUGH SUN NGT. PCPN DEVELOPS MONDAY AS THE NEXT
WX SYS APPROACHES FROM THE W. PCPN BEGINS AS SNOW MON MRNG...MNLY
INLAND...BEFORE WARMER AIR WORKS IN AND CHANGES ANY SN TO RA FROM
SE TO NW DURING MON. RA CONTS INTO TUESDAY AS LO PRES TRACKS ACRS
THE AREA. DRY WX RETURNS WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES TODAY AS THE MARINE AREA WINDS WILL GNRLY BE AOB 15KTS
AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRS PROGGED TO MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW WILL NOT BRING ANY WIND RELATED MARINE
HEADLINES...THE ASSCTD PCPN WILL BRING REDUCED VSBYS IN SNOW/SLEET
OF VARYING INTENSITIES LATE THIS AFTRN AND EVE.

AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-40KT OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO
5-8FT WITH 4-5 FT WAVES IN THE BAY. GALE FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR
LATE TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND
SPEEDS HAVE BEEN CAPPED AT HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME.

EXPANDED THE FREEZING SPRAY WINDOW TO INCLUDE SAT...SAT NITE AND SUN
MORN GIVEN FCSTD WND SPEEDS / GUSTS COMBINED WITH AIR TMPS BELOW 30
DEGREES. LIMITED THE FREEZING SPRAY TO THE MORE OPEN CHES BAY AND
CSTL WATER AREAS. PER COORD WITH PHL...HOISTED FREEZING SPRAY ADVSRY
FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL. THIS MEANS LIGHT TO MDT ACCUMULATION OF
ICE CAN BE EXPECTED ON VESSELS.

THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES
ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES / LOW WATER ADVISORIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NCZ012>014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ015>017-
     030>032-102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ092-
     093-095>098-100-523>525.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ633-635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB/MPR
MARINE...MPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 121845
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
145 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATER TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE PIVOTING ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING SNOW CHANCES IN THE RIDGES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE ARCTIC FRONT PASSAGE PROGGED FOR THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
BOTH HI RES AND LONGER RANGE MODEL SOUNDINGS IN BUFKIT SUGGEST A
PERIOD WHERE DEEP MOISTURE...IN A LAYER FROM ABOUT 600MB TO
850MB...WILL BE WELL WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT EFFICIENT SNOWFALL FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE ARCTIC FRONT...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ANTICIPATED WITH
AND BEHIND THE FRONT IN UPSLOPE SNOW UNTIL THE WHOLE BOUNDARY
LAYER FALLS WELL BELOW VALUES FOR EFFICIENT SNOWFALL. WITH THIS IN
MIND...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE RIDGES OF
PRESTON TUCKER AND GARRETT COUNTIES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE WITH THE TIMING
OF THE SNOW SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL SQUALLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
PROGGED FOR PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE LINE TO BE INTO EASTERN
OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PA BY 00Z AND PITTSBURGH BY 03Z. VARIOUS
RUNS OF THE HRRR AND TO A LESSER DEGREE OTHER SNOW SQUALLS PROGSSUGGEST
THAT THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKENING AS THE LINE COMES ACROSS.
GENERALLY ANTICIPATE A HALF TO AN INCH OF SNOW...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
AND PROVIDE FOR A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AREAWIDE UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY WITH MAXIMUM WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER APPROACHING 25
TO 35KTS. THIS...ADDED TO TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILL VALUES WELL BELOW ZERO. THIS
SUPPORTS THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY THAT WAS ISSUED WITH ADDITIONAL
CONCERN FOR THE RIDGES...AS 40MPH WIND GUSTS MAY SUPPORT AN
UPGRADE OF THE WIND CHILL WATCH THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER ANALYSIS
WILL BE MADE WITH A DECISION LATER IN THIS SHIFT.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SEVERAL GUAL-LAKE SNOW BANDS. THE LATEST
ITERATION OF MODELS HAS THE MORE PROMINENT BAND SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
SOUTH FROM LAST NIGHT SO WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE ACTUAL PLACEMENT
OF SNOW BANDS...HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH
FOR VENANGO COUNTY TO AN ADVISORY FOR MERCER...VENANGO...AND
FOREST COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL LAKE PLUMES MAY SUPPORT SNOW BEYOND
THESE ADVISORIES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY
IN THEIR PLACEMENT...NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES WERE ADDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE WANING LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST AND A SURFACE HIGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES NEAR THE ZERO DEGREE MARK FOR SUNDAY MORNING
LOWS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD IN...WINDS WILL BE
DECREASING ACROSS EASTERN OHIO. TO THE EAST AND NORTH
HOWEVER...SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL MEAN
WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW -10F. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS COULD SEE WIND
CHILLS AT OR BELOW -25F. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE CWA INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A WIND
CHILL WATCH ACROSS GARRETT AND EASTERN TUCKER COUNTIES.

BRIEF RIDGING SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL FINALLY DISRUPT THE MEAN
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL GRADUALLY KICK
INTO GEAR...BUT WITH SUCH A LOW STARTING POINT...HIGHS WILL STAY
WELL BELOW AVERAGE SUNDAY. THE NEXT WEAK WAVE ARRIVES MONDAY MORNING
SPREADING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW BACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN
INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY WARMER AIR SURGING NORTHWARD
WILL KEEP LOWS FROM BOTTOMING OUT MONDAY MORNING.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DIGGING TROUGH WILL DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MONDAY. STRONG SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL DEEPEN
THE LOW FURTHER AS IT ADVANCES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TAP INTO GULF AND ATLANTIC
MOISTURE...SPREADING IT NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION AND EAST. STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BRING PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT LEAST OUR
EASTERN ZONES BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. STILL QUESTIONS
SURROUNDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE RESULTANT WESTWARD
EDGE OF PRECIPITATION...PRECIPITATION TYPE...AND INTENSITY. AS OF THE
00Z RUNS...GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT ACROSS THE MODEL
SUITE...BUT ALL HAVE NUDGED THE SURFACE LOW WEST OF THEIR POSITION
24HRS AGO.

CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR LIKELY SNOW TUESDAY MORNING REACHING WEST
TO THE OHIO RIVER INCLUDING PITTSBURGH. SIGNIFICANT MODEL SPREAD
DOES EXIST FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE VALUES TUESDAY...AND WITH THE
WESTWARD TREND...HAVE BUMPED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES. THIS WOULD
FAVOR AT LEAST SOME MIX OF RAIN/SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON THAT COULD
ULTIMATELY CUT INTO THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY DROP BELOW AVERAGE
THURSDAY...BEFORE REBOUNDING WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION BY THE WEEKEND.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMMENCE BY EVENING
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH A BURST OF SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG IT.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR WILL BE WITH LOW
PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR OHZ039-048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ007>009.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR WVZ003-004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WVZ001-002-021-509>513.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR WVZ512>514.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR WVZ514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 121845
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
145 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATER TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE PIVOTING ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING SNOW CHANCES IN THE RIDGES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE ARCTIC FRONT PASSAGE PROGGED FOR THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
BOTH HI RES AND LONGER RANGE MODEL SOUNDINGS IN BUFKIT SUGGEST A
PERIOD WHERE DEEP MOISTURE...IN A LAYER FROM ABOUT 600MB TO
850MB...WILL BE WELL WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT EFFICIENT SNOWFALL FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE ARCTIC FRONT...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ANTICIPATED WITH
AND BEHIND THE FRONT IN UPSLOPE SNOW UNTIL THE WHOLE BOUNDARY
LAYER FALLS WELL BELOW VALUES FOR EFFICIENT SNOWFALL. WITH THIS IN
MIND...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE RIDGES OF
PRESTON TUCKER AND GARRETT COUNTIES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE WITH THE TIMING
OF THE SNOW SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL SQUALLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
PROGGED FOR PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE LINE TO BE INTO EASTERN
OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PA BY 00Z AND PITTSBURGH BY 03Z. VARIOUS
RUNS OF THE HRRR AND TO A LESSER DEGREE OTHER SNOW SQUALLS PROGSSUGGEST
THAT THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKENING AS THE LINE COMES ACROSS.
GENERALLY ANTICIPATE A HALF TO AN INCH OF SNOW...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
AND PROVIDE FOR A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AREAWIDE UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY WITH MAXIMUM WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER APPROACHING 25
TO 35KTS. THIS...ADDED TO TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILL VALUES WELL BELOW ZERO. THIS
SUPPORTS THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY THAT WAS ISSUED WITH ADDITIONAL
CONCERN FOR THE RIDGES...AS 40MPH WIND GUSTS MAY SUPPORT AN
UPGRADE OF THE WIND CHILL WATCH THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER ANALYSIS
WILL BE MADE WITH A DECISION LATER IN THIS SHIFT.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SEVERAL GUAL-LAKE SNOW BANDS. THE LATEST
ITERATION OF MODELS HAS THE MORE PROMINENT BAND SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
SOUTH FROM LAST NIGHT SO WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE ACTUAL PLACEMENT
OF SNOW BANDS...HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH
FOR VENANGO COUNTY TO AN ADVISORY FOR MERCER...VENANGO...AND
FOREST COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL LAKE PLUMES MAY SUPPORT SNOW BEYOND
THESE ADVISORIES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY
IN THEIR PLACEMENT...NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES WERE ADDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE WANING LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST AND A SURFACE HIGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES NEAR THE ZERO DEGREE MARK FOR SUNDAY MORNING
LOWS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD IN...WINDS WILL BE
DECREASING ACROSS EASTERN OHIO. TO THE EAST AND NORTH
HOWEVER...SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL MEAN
WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW -10F. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS COULD SEE WIND
CHILLS AT OR BELOW -25F. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE CWA INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A WIND
CHILL WATCH ACROSS GARRETT AND EASTERN TUCKER COUNTIES.

BRIEF RIDGING SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL FINALLY DISRUPT THE MEAN
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL GRADUALLY KICK
INTO GEAR...BUT WITH SUCH A LOW STARTING POINT...HIGHS WILL STAY
WELL BELOW AVERAGE SUNDAY. THE NEXT WEAK WAVE ARRIVES MONDAY MORNING
SPREADING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW BACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN
INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY WARMER AIR SURGING NORTHWARD
WILL KEEP LOWS FROM BOTTOMING OUT MONDAY MORNING.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DIGGING TROUGH WILL DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MONDAY. STRONG SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL DEEPEN
THE LOW FURTHER AS IT ADVANCES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TAP INTO GULF AND ATLANTIC
MOISTURE...SPREADING IT NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION AND EAST. STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BRING PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT LEAST OUR
EASTERN ZONES BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. STILL QUESTIONS
SURROUNDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE RESULTANT WESTWARD
EDGE OF PRECIPITATION...PRECIPITATION TYPE...AND INTENSITY. AS OF THE
00Z RUNS...GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT ACROSS THE MODEL
SUITE...BUT ALL HAVE NUDGED THE SURFACE LOW WEST OF THEIR POSITION
24HRS AGO.

CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR LIKELY SNOW TUESDAY MORNING REACHING WEST
TO THE OHIO RIVER INCLUDING PITTSBURGH. SIGNIFICANT MODEL SPREAD
DOES EXIST FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE VALUES TUESDAY...AND WITH THE
WESTWARD TREND...HAVE BUMPED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES. THIS WOULD
FAVOR AT LEAST SOME MIX OF RAIN/SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON THAT COULD
ULTIMATELY CUT INTO THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY DROP BELOW AVERAGE
THURSDAY...BEFORE REBOUNDING WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION BY THE WEEKEND.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMMENCE BY EVENING
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH A BURST OF SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG IT.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR WILL BE WITH LOW
PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR OHZ039-048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ007>009.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR WVZ003-004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WVZ001-002-021-509>513.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR WVZ512>514.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR WVZ514.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 121845
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
145 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATER TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE PIVOTING ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING SNOW CHANCES IN THE RIDGES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE ARCTIC FRONT PASSAGE PROGGED FOR THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
BOTH HI RES AND LONGER RANGE MODEL SOUNDINGS IN BUFKIT SUGGEST A
PERIOD WHERE DEEP MOISTURE...IN A LAYER FROM ABOUT 600MB TO
850MB...WILL BE WELL WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT EFFICIENT SNOWFALL FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE ARCTIC FRONT...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ANTICIPATED WITH
AND BEHIND THE FRONT IN UPSLOPE SNOW UNTIL THE WHOLE BOUNDARY
LAYER FALLS WELL BELOW VALUES FOR EFFICIENT SNOWFALL. WITH THIS IN
MIND...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE RIDGES OF
PRESTON TUCKER AND GARRETT COUNTIES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE WITH THE TIMING
OF THE SNOW SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL SQUALLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
PROGGED FOR PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE LINE TO BE INTO EASTERN
OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PA BY 00Z AND PITTSBURGH BY 03Z. VARIOUS
RUNS OF THE HRRR AND TO A LESSER DEGREE OTHER SNOW SQUALLS PROGSSUGGEST
THAT THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKENING AS THE LINE COMES ACROSS.
GENERALLY ANTICIPATE A HALF TO AN INCH OF SNOW...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
AND PROVIDE FOR A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AREAWIDE UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY WITH MAXIMUM WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER APPROACHING 25
TO 35KTS. THIS...ADDED TO TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILL VALUES WELL BELOW ZERO. THIS
SUPPORTS THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY THAT WAS ISSUED WITH ADDITIONAL
CONCERN FOR THE RIDGES...AS 40MPH WIND GUSTS MAY SUPPORT AN
UPGRADE OF THE WIND CHILL WATCH THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER ANALYSIS
WILL BE MADE WITH A DECISION LATER IN THIS SHIFT.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SEVERAL GUAL-LAKE SNOW BANDS. THE LATEST
ITERATION OF MODELS HAS THE MORE PROMINENT BAND SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
SOUTH FROM LAST NIGHT SO WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE ACTUAL PLACEMENT
OF SNOW BANDS...HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH
FOR VENANGO COUNTY TO AN ADVISORY FOR MERCER...VENANGO...AND
FOREST COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL LAKE PLUMES MAY SUPPORT SNOW BEYOND
THESE ADVISORIES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY
IN THEIR PLACEMENT...NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES WERE ADDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE WANING LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST AND A SURFACE HIGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES NEAR THE ZERO DEGREE MARK FOR SUNDAY MORNING
LOWS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD IN...WINDS WILL BE
DECREASING ACROSS EASTERN OHIO. TO THE EAST AND NORTH
HOWEVER...SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL MEAN
WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW -10F. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS COULD SEE WIND
CHILLS AT OR BELOW -25F. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE CWA INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A WIND
CHILL WATCH ACROSS GARRETT AND EASTERN TUCKER COUNTIES.

BRIEF RIDGING SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL FINALLY DISRUPT THE MEAN
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL GRADUALLY KICK
INTO GEAR...BUT WITH SUCH A LOW STARTING POINT...HIGHS WILL STAY
WELL BELOW AVERAGE SUNDAY. THE NEXT WEAK WAVE ARRIVES MONDAY MORNING
SPREADING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW BACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN
INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY WARMER AIR SURGING NORTHWARD
WILL KEEP LOWS FROM BOTTOMING OUT MONDAY MORNING.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DIGGING TROUGH WILL DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MONDAY. STRONG SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL DEEPEN
THE LOW FURTHER AS IT ADVANCES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TAP INTO GULF AND ATLANTIC
MOISTURE...SPREADING IT NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION AND EAST. STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BRING PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT LEAST OUR
EASTERN ZONES BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. STILL QUESTIONS
SURROUNDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE RESULTANT WESTWARD
EDGE OF PRECIPITATION...PRECIPITATION TYPE...AND INTENSITY. AS OF THE
00Z RUNS...GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT ACROSS THE MODEL
SUITE...BUT ALL HAVE NUDGED THE SURFACE LOW WEST OF THEIR POSITION
24HRS AGO.

CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR LIKELY SNOW TUESDAY MORNING REACHING WEST
TO THE OHIO RIVER INCLUDING PITTSBURGH. SIGNIFICANT MODEL SPREAD
DOES EXIST FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE VALUES TUESDAY...AND WITH THE
WESTWARD TREND...HAVE BUMPED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES. THIS WOULD
FAVOR AT LEAST SOME MIX OF RAIN/SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON THAT COULD
ULTIMATELY CUT INTO THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY DROP BELOW AVERAGE
THURSDAY...BEFORE REBOUNDING WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION BY THE WEEKEND.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMMENCE BY EVENING
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH A BURST OF SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG IT.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR WILL BE WITH LOW
PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR OHZ039-048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ007>009.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR WVZ003-004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WVZ001-002-021-509>513.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR WVZ512>514.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR WVZ514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 121756
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1256 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
MORNING...LIFTING NORTHEAST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA
COASTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE SC COAST THIS MORNING. RADAR
RETURNS DEPICTING CONVECTION AROUND THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE LOW.
RADAR RETURNS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ARE ELEVATED AND NOT REACHING THE
GROUND AS THE SUB CLOUD LAYER REMAINS QUITE DRY THANKS TO HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...THE LATEST RETURNS
ARE ALREADY INDICATING WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND WILL LIKELY SET
UP...ACROSS SE VA/NE NC. ALOFT...LATEST GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
RAOB PLOTS DEPICT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE MID MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY.
THIS SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES THRU THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH HEIGHT FALLS FURTHER DEEPENING THE SFC LOW OFF THE SC
COAST. THIS WILL LIKELY PUSH THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND SWWD
SLIGHTLY...WITH THE ADDED DYNAMICS DEEPENING THE MOISTURE FIELDS.
THIS IS HANDLED WELL IN THE BUFR SOUNDINGS AND ISENTROPIC FIELDS.
EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN FALLING BY LATE MORNING TO AROUND NOON ACROSS
NE NC/EXTREME SE VA...SPREADING NWD THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. STILL
REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE SPREAD WITH REGARDS TO
QPF...WHICH WILL OF COURSE HAVE IMPACTS ON TOTAL SNOWFALL. TAKING A
BLEND OF THE FAVORED SHORT TERM GUIDANCE STILL YIELDS A QPF FORECAST
SIMILAR TO 24 HOURS AGO. THUS THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF 10-15:1
SNOWFALL IS STILL FAVORED OVER NE NC AROUND THE ALBEMARLE SOUND.
AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES ARE STILL EXPECTED...WITH SOME BANDING
EXPECTED AS NAM12 DEPICTS BEST FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THAT REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOCALIZED 5 INCH
AMOUNTS. AMOUNTS TAPER OFF TO 1 TO 3 INCHES INTO HAMPTON ROADS AND
TOWARDS SOUTHAMPTON AND ISLE OF WIGHT COUNTIES. BASED ON
AFOREMENTIONED QPF DISCREPANCIES...THERE STILL REMAINS A QUESTION OF
HOW FAR NORTH LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE
AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND LIFTS ALONG THE COAST EARLY AFTERNOON.
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AS BETTER FORCING ARRIVES
OVER CENTRAL VA. MOISTURE IS NOT AS DEEP INTO CENTRAL VA...BUT
THERMAL PROFILES/CROSS SECTIONS STILL INDICATE HIGH RH/ICE IN THE
SNOW GROWTH ZONE WITH PLENTY OF OMEGA. BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER LEVELS...STILL THINKING THIS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR LIGHT SNOW
INTO THE TRI-CITIES AND RICHMOND AREA. HOWEVER...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
WILL TAPER OFF TO LESS THAN HALF AN INCH TOWARDS RICHMOND DUE TO
SHORT DURATION. COLD SURFACE/ROADWAYS WILL ALLOW ANY SNOW THAT FALLS
TO ACCUMULATE ON THE ROADWAYS...SO DRIVING WILL STILL BE IMPACTED.
FARTHER NORTHWEST OF RICHMOND COULD SEE JUST A DUSTING.

TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE MID 30S TODAY THANKS TO
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP.

SNOW COMES TO AN END THIS EVENG/EARLY TNGT...AS THE SFC LO PUSHES
WELL ENE OF THE MID-ATLC CST AND THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES THRU THE
REGION. CLEARING SW TO NE LATE TONIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW/ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR VORTEX DIGS
OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. ~1040MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE MIDWEST...USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDY SAT WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH (STRONGER NEAR THE COAST AND
OVER THE EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS SAT FORECAST TO WARM ONLY INTO THE
MID 20S NW TO LOW 30S SE (-2 STD DEV) UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE TEENS...RESULTING IN A
RAW/COLD/WINDY DAY. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS SAT NIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE INLAND AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...BUT WIND CHILLS STILL FORECAST IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
INLAND TO 0 TO 8 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN SHORE. THE HIGH CENTERS
OVER THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WITH NLY WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. SLIGHTLY
COLDER SUN WITH DECREASED MIXING. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER
20S (-2 STD DEV) UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ATTENTION
TURNING TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. THERE
REMAINS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS...ALTHOUGH
THE 11/12Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING SLOWER...AND WARMER FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. THE 11/12Z GFS CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PCPN MONDAY AS A NRN STREAM TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WOULD MAINLY FALL AS SN OR SN/IP...WITH A TRANSITION TO
RA CLOSER TO THE COAST BY AFTERNOON. SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT WOULD
GENERALLY RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO RA MONDAY NIGHT...ASIDE FROM THE
FAR NW WHERE MIXED PCPN COULD PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH AN
IN-SITU WEDGE IN PLACE. THE LATEST DATA SCOURS OUT THE WEDGE BY
AFTERNOON WITH P-TYPE BECOMING RA EVEN IN THE FAR NW. DRYING OCCURS
MIDWEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE
CLIPPING THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
OF COOLER AIR AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS MONDAY WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW 30S ALONG
AND W OF I-95...WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW 40S. TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY MONDAY EVENING AND BEGIN TO RISE
OVERNIGHT EVENTUALLY WARMING INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S...FOLLOWED BY
LOW 40S NE...TO UPPER 40S SW THURSDAY. MORNING LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WK SFC LO PRES WILL BE EXITING NC/SC CST THIS AFTN/EVE. BROAD AREA
OF SN TO MOVE ACRS MNLY SE VA/NE NC. PD OF MDT SN PSBL FM ABT
20-23Z/12...ESP AT ECG. ELSW...DRY LO LVL ATMOS XPD TO PREVENT
ANYTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES RIC-SBY.

TROUGH ALOFT TO PUSH ACRS THE RGN TNGT...PTNTL FOR SCT -SN...MNLY
INVOF SBY FM ABT 02-03Z TO 08-09Z/13. OTRW...STRONG CDFNT TO PUSH
ACRS THE RGN OVRNGT. GUSTY NW WNDS TO 25-35 KT TO DEVELOP LT
TNGT/EARLY SAT MRNG...CONTG THROUGH THE DAY SAT. VFR AND DRY WX
WILL PREVAIL SAT THROUGH SUN NGT. PCPN DEVELOPS MONDAY AS THE NEXT
WX SYS APPROACHES FROM THE W. PCPN BEGINS AS SNOW MON MRNG...MNLY
INLAND...BEFORE WARMER AIR WORKS IN AND CHANGES ANY SN TO RA FROM
SE TO NW DURING MON. RA CONTS INTO TUESDAY AS LO PRES TRACKS ACRS
THE AREA. DRY WX RETURNS WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES TODAY AS THE MARINE AREA WINDS WILL GNRLY BE AOB 15KTS
AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRS PROGGED TO MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW WILL NOT BRING ANY WIND RELATED MARINE
HEADLINES...THE ASSCTD PCPN WILL BRING REDUCED VSBYS IN SNOW/SLEET
OF VARYING INTENSITIES LATE THIS AFTRN AND EVE.

AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-40KT OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO
5-8FT WITH 4-5 FT WAVES IN THE BAY. GALE FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR
LATE TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND
SPEEDS HAVE BEEN CAPPED AT HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME.

EXPANDED THE FREEZING SPRAY WINDOW TO INCLUDE SAT...SAT NITE AND SUN
MORN GIVEN FCSTD WND SPEEDS / GUSTS COMBINED WITH AIR TMPS BELOW 30
DEGREES. LIMITED THE FREEZING SPRAY TO THE MORE OPEN CHES BAY AND
CSTL WATER AREAS. PER COORD WITH PHL...HOISTED FREEZING SPRAY ADVSRY
FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL. THIS MEANS LIGHT TO MDT ACCUMULATION OF
ICE CAN BE EXPECTED ON VESSELS.

THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES
ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES / LOW WATER ADVISORIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NCZ012>014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ015>017-
     030>032-102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ092-
     093-095>098-100-523>525.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ633-635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB/MPR
MARINE...MPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 121756
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1256 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
MORNING...LIFTING NORTHEAST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA
COASTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE SC COAST THIS MORNING. RADAR
RETURNS DEPICTING CONVECTION AROUND THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE LOW.
RADAR RETURNS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ARE ELEVATED AND NOT REACHING THE
GROUND AS THE SUB CLOUD LAYER REMAINS QUITE DRY THANKS TO HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...THE LATEST RETURNS
ARE ALREADY INDICATING WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND WILL LIKELY SET
UP...ACROSS SE VA/NE NC. ALOFT...LATEST GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
RAOB PLOTS DEPICT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE MID MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY.
THIS SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES THRU THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH HEIGHT FALLS FURTHER DEEPENING THE SFC LOW OFF THE SC
COAST. THIS WILL LIKELY PUSH THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND SWWD
SLIGHTLY...WITH THE ADDED DYNAMICS DEEPENING THE MOISTURE FIELDS.
THIS IS HANDLED WELL IN THE BUFR SOUNDINGS AND ISENTROPIC FIELDS.
EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN FALLING BY LATE MORNING TO AROUND NOON ACROSS
NE NC/EXTREME SE VA...SPREADING NWD THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. STILL
REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE SPREAD WITH REGARDS TO
QPF...WHICH WILL OF COURSE HAVE IMPACTS ON TOTAL SNOWFALL. TAKING A
BLEND OF THE FAVORED SHORT TERM GUIDANCE STILL YIELDS A QPF FORECAST
SIMILAR TO 24 HOURS AGO. THUS THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF 10-15:1
SNOWFALL IS STILL FAVORED OVER NE NC AROUND THE ALBEMARLE SOUND.
AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES ARE STILL EXPECTED...WITH SOME BANDING
EXPECTED AS NAM12 DEPICTS BEST FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THAT REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOCALIZED 5 INCH
AMOUNTS. AMOUNTS TAPER OFF TO 1 TO 3 INCHES INTO HAMPTON ROADS AND
TOWARDS SOUTHAMPTON AND ISLE OF WIGHT COUNTIES. BASED ON
AFOREMENTIONED QPF DISCREPANCIES...THERE STILL REMAINS A QUESTION OF
HOW FAR NORTH LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE
AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND LIFTS ALONG THE COAST EARLY AFTERNOON.
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AS BETTER FORCING ARRIVES
OVER CENTRAL VA. MOISTURE IS NOT AS DEEP INTO CENTRAL VA...BUT
THERMAL PROFILES/CROSS SECTIONS STILL INDICATE HIGH RH/ICE IN THE
SNOW GROWTH ZONE WITH PLENTY OF OMEGA. BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER LEVELS...STILL THINKING THIS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR LIGHT SNOW
INTO THE TRI-CITIES AND RICHMOND AREA. HOWEVER...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
WILL TAPER OFF TO LESS THAN HALF AN INCH TOWARDS RICHMOND DUE TO
SHORT DURATION. COLD SURFACE/ROADWAYS WILL ALLOW ANY SNOW THAT FALLS
TO ACCUMULATE ON THE ROADWAYS...SO DRIVING WILL STILL BE IMPACTED.
FARTHER NORTHWEST OF RICHMOND COULD SEE JUST A DUSTING.

TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE MID 30S TODAY THANKS TO
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP.

SNOW COMES TO AN END THIS EVENG/EARLY TNGT...AS THE SFC LO PUSHES
WELL ENE OF THE MID-ATLC CST AND THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES THRU THE
REGION. CLEARING SW TO NE LATE TONIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW/ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR VORTEX DIGS
OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. ~1040MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE MIDWEST...USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDY SAT WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH (STRONGER NEAR THE COAST AND
OVER THE EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS SAT FORECAST TO WARM ONLY INTO THE
MID 20S NW TO LOW 30S SE (-2 STD DEV) UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE TEENS...RESULTING IN A
RAW/COLD/WINDY DAY. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS SAT NIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE INLAND AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...BUT WIND CHILLS STILL FORECAST IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
INLAND TO 0 TO 8 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN SHORE. THE HIGH CENTERS
OVER THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WITH NLY WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. SLIGHTLY
COLDER SUN WITH DECREASED MIXING. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER
20S (-2 STD DEV) UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ATTENTION
TURNING TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. THERE
REMAINS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS...ALTHOUGH
THE 11/12Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING SLOWER...AND WARMER FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. THE 11/12Z GFS CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PCPN MONDAY AS A NRN STREAM TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WOULD MAINLY FALL AS SN OR SN/IP...WITH A TRANSITION TO
RA CLOSER TO THE COAST BY AFTERNOON. SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT WOULD
GENERALLY RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO RA MONDAY NIGHT...ASIDE FROM THE
FAR NW WHERE MIXED PCPN COULD PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH AN
IN-SITU WEDGE IN PLACE. THE LATEST DATA SCOURS OUT THE WEDGE BY
AFTERNOON WITH P-TYPE BECOMING RA EVEN IN THE FAR NW. DRYING OCCURS
MIDWEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE
CLIPPING THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
OF COOLER AIR AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS MONDAY WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW 30S ALONG
AND W OF I-95...WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW 40S. TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY MONDAY EVENING AND BEGIN TO RISE
OVERNIGHT EVENTUALLY WARMING INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S...FOLLOWED BY
LOW 40S NE...TO UPPER 40S SW THURSDAY. MORNING LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WK SFC LO PRES WILL BE EXITING NC/SC CST THIS AFTN/EVE. BROAD AREA
OF SN TO MOVE ACRS MNLY SE VA/NE NC. PD OF MDT SN PSBL FM ABT
20-23Z/12...ESP AT ECG. ELSW...DRY LO LVL ATMOS XPD TO PREVENT
ANYTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES RIC-SBY.

TROUGH ALOFT TO PUSH ACRS THE RGN TNGT...PTNTL FOR SCT -SN...MNLY
INVOF SBY FM ABT 02-03Z TO 08-09Z/13. OTRW...STRONG CDFNT TO PUSH
ACRS THE RGN OVRNGT. GUSTY NW WNDS TO 25-35 KT TO DEVELOP LT
TNGT/EARLY SAT MRNG...CONTG THROUGH THE DAY SAT. VFR AND DRY WX
WILL PREVAIL SAT THROUGH SUN NGT. PCPN DEVELOPS MONDAY AS THE NEXT
WX SYS APPROACHES FROM THE W. PCPN BEGINS AS SNOW MON MRNG...MNLY
INLAND...BEFORE WARMER AIR WORKS IN AND CHANGES ANY SN TO RA FROM
SE TO NW DURING MON. RA CONTS INTO TUESDAY AS LO PRES TRACKS ACRS
THE AREA. DRY WX RETURNS WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES TODAY AS THE MARINE AREA WINDS WILL GNRLY BE AOB 15KTS
AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRS PROGGED TO MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW WILL NOT BRING ANY WIND RELATED MARINE
HEADLINES...THE ASSCTD PCPN WILL BRING REDUCED VSBYS IN SNOW/SLEET
OF VARYING INTENSITIES LATE THIS AFTRN AND EVE.

AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-40KT OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO
5-8FT WITH 4-5 FT WAVES IN THE BAY. GALE FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR
LATE TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND
SPEEDS HAVE BEEN CAPPED AT HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME.

EXPANDED THE FREEZING SPRAY WINDOW TO INCLUDE SAT...SAT NITE AND SUN
MORN GIVEN FCSTD WND SPEEDS / GUSTS COMBINED WITH AIR TMPS BELOW 30
DEGREES. LIMITED THE FREEZING SPRAY TO THE MORE OPEN CHES BAY AND
CSTL WATER AREAS. PER COORD WITH PHL...HOISTED FREEZING SPRAY ADVSRY
FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL. THIS MEANS LIGHT TO MDT ACCUMULATION OF
ICE CAN BE EXPECTED ON VESSELS.

THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES
ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES / LOW WATER ADVISORIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NCZ012>014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ015>017-
     030>032-102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ092-
     093-095>098-100-523>525.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ633-635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB/MPR
MARINE...MPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 121756
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1256 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
MORNING...LIFTING NORTHEAST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA
COASTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE SC COAST THIS MORNING. RADAR
RETURNS DEPICTING CONVECTION AROUND THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE LOW.
RADAR RETURNS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ARE ELEVATED AND NOT REACHING THE
GROUND AS THE SUB CLOUD LAYER REMAINS QUITE DRY THANKS TO HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...THE LATEST RETURNS
ARE ALREADY INDICATING WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND WILL LIKELY SET
UP...ACROSS SE VA/NE NC. ALOFT...LATEST GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
RAOB PLOTS DEPICT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE MID MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY.
THIS SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES THRU THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH HEIGHT FALLS FURTHER DEEPENING THE SFC LOW OFF THE SC
COAST. THIS WILL LIKELY PUSH THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND SWWD
SLIGHTLY...WITH THE ADDED DYNAMICS DEEPENING THE MOISTURE FIELDS.
THIS IS HANDLED WELL IN THE BUFR SOUNDINGS AND ISENTROPIC FIELDS.
EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN FALLING BY LATE MORNING TO AROUND NOON ACROSS
NE NC/EXTREME SE VA...SPREADING NWD THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. STILL
REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE SPREAD WITH REGARDS TO
QPF...WHICH WILL OF COURSE HAVE IMPACTS ON TOTAL SNOWFALL. TAKING A
BLEND OF THE FAVORED SHORT TERM GUIDANCE STILL YIELDS A QPF FORECAST
SIMILAR TO 24 HOURS AGO. THUS THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF 10-15:1
SNOWFALL IS STILL FAVORED OVER NE NC AROUND THE ALBEMARLE SOUND.
AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES ARE STILL EXPECTED...WITH SOME BANDING
EXPECTED AS NAM12 DEPICTS BEST FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THAT REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOCALIZED 5 INCH
AMOUNTS. AMOUNTS TAPER OFF TO 1 TO 3 INCHES INTO HAMPTON ROADS AND
TOWARDS SOUTHAMPTON AND ISLE OF WIGHT COUNTIES. BASED ON
AFOREMENTIONED QPF DISCREPANCIES...THERE STILL REMAINS A QUESTION OF
HOW FAR NORTH LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE
AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND LIFTS ALONG THE COAST EARLY AFTERNOON.
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AS BETTER FORCING ARRIVES
OVER CENTRAL VA. MOISTURE IS NOT AS DEEP INTO CENTRAL VA...BUT
THERMAL PROFILES/CROSS SECTIONS STILL INDICATE HIGH RH/ICE IN THE
SNOW GROWTH ZONE WITH PLENTY OF OMEGA. BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER LEVELS...STILL THINKING THIS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR LIGHT SNOW
INTO THE TRI-CITIES AND RICHMOND AREA. HOWEVER...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
WILL TAPER OFF TO LESS THAN HALF AN INCH TOWARDS RICHMOND DUE TO
SHORT DURATION. COLD SURFACE/ROADWAYS WILL ALLOW ANY SNOW THAT FALLS
TO ACCUMULATE ON THE ROADWAYS...SO DRIVING WILL STILL BE IMPACTED.
FARTHER NORTHWEST OF RICHMOND COULD SEE JUST A DUSTING.

TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE MID 30S TODAY THANKS TO
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP.

SNOW COMES TO AN END THIS EVENG/EARLY TNGT...AS THE SFC LO PUSHES
WELL ENE OF THE MID-ATLC CST AND THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES THRU THE
REGION. CLEARING SW TO NE LATE TONIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW/ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR VORTEX DIGS
OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. ~1040MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE MIDWEST...USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDY SAT WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH (STRONGER NEAR THE COAST AND
OVER THE EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS SAT FORECAST TO WARM ONLY INTO THE
MID 20S NW TO LOW 30S SE (-2 STD DEV) UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE TEENS...RESULTING IN A
RAW/COLD/WINDY DAY. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS SAT NIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE INLAND AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...BUT WIND CHILLS STILL FORECAST IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
INLAND TO 0 TO 8 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN SHORE. THE HIGH CENTERS
OVER THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WITH NLY WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. SLIGHTLY
COLDER SUN WITH DECREASED MIXING. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER
20S (-2 STD DEV) UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ATTENTION
TURNING TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. THERE
REMAINS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS...ALTHOUGH
THE 11/12Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING SLOWER...AND WARMER FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. THE 11/12Z GFS CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PCPN MONDAY AS A NRN STREAM TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WOULD MAINLY FALL AS SN OR SN/IP...WITH A TRANSITION TO
RA CLOSER TO THE COAST BY AFTERNOON. SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT WOULD
GENERALLY RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO RA MONDAY NIGHT...ASIDE FROM THE
FAR NW WHERE MIXED PCPN COULD PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH AN
IN-SITU WEDGE IN PLACE. THE LATEST DATA SCOURS OUT THE WEDGE BY
AFTERNOON WITH P-TYPE BECOMING RA EVEN IN THE FAR NW. DRYING OCCURS
MIDWEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE
CLIPPING THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
OF COOLER AIR AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS MONDAY WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW 30S ALONG
AND W OF I-95...WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW 40S. TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY MONDAY EVENING AND BEGIN TO RISE
OVERNIGHT EVENTUALLY WARMING INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S...FOLLOWED BY
LOW 40S NE...TO UPPER 40S SW THURSDAY. MORNING LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WK SFC LO PRES WILL BE EXITING NC/SC CST THIS AFTN/EVE. BROAD AREA
OF SN TO MOVE ACRS MNLY SE VA/NE NC. PD OF MDT SN PSBL FM ABT
20-23Z/12...ESP AT ECG. ELSW...DRY LO LVL ATMOS XPD TO PREVENT
ANYTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES RIC-SBY.

TROUGH ALOFT TO PUSH ACRS THE RGN TNGT...PTNTL FOR SCT -SN...MNLY
INVOF SBY FM ABT 02-03Z TO 08-09Z/13. OTRW...STRONG CDFNT TO PUSH
ACRS THE RGN OVRNGT. GUSTY NW WNDS TO 25-35 KT TO DEVELOP LT
TNGT/EARLY SAT MRNG...CONTG THROUGH THE DAY SAT. VFR AND DRY WX
WILL PREVAIL SAT THROUGH SUN NGT. PCPN DEVELOPS MONDAY AS THE NEXT
WX SYS APPROACHES FROM THE W. PCPN BEGINS AS SNOW MON MRNG...MNLY
INLAND...BEFORE WARMER AIR WORKS IN AND CHANGES ANY SN TO RA FROM
SE TO NW DURING MON. RA CONTS INTO TUESDAY AS LO PRES TRACKS ACRS
THE AREA. DRY WX RETURNS WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES TODAY AS THE MARINE AREA WINDS WILL GNRLY BE AOB 15KTS
AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRS PROGGED TO MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW WILL NOT BRING ANY WIND RELATED MARINE
HEADLINES...THE ASSCTD PCPN WILL BRING REDUCED VSBYS IN SNOW/SLEET
OF VARYING INTENSITIES LATE THIS AFTRN AND EVE.

AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-40KT OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO
5-8FT WITH 4-5 FT WAVES IN THE BAY. GALE FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR
LATE TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND
SPEEDS HAVE BEEN CAPPED AT HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME.

EXPANDED THE FREEZING SPRAY WINDOW TO INCLUDE SAT...SAT NITE AND SUN
MORN GIVEN FCSTD WND SPEEDS / GUSTS COMBINED WITH AIR TMPS BELOW 30
DEGREES. LIMITED THE FREEZING SPRAY TO THE MORE OPEN CHES BAY AND
CSTL WATER AREAS. PER COORD WITH PHL...HOISTED FREEZING SPRAY ADVSRY
FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL. THIS MEANS LIGHT TO MDT ACCUMULATION OF
ICE CAN BE EXPECTED ON VESSELS.

THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES
ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES / LOW WATER ADVISORIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NCZ012>014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ015>017-
     030>032-102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ092-
     093-095>098-100-523>525.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ633-635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB/MPR
MARINE...MPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 121756
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1256 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
MORNING...LIFTING NORTHEAST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA
COASTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE SC COAST THIS MORNING. RADAR
RETURNS DEPICTING CONVECTION AROUND THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE LOW.
RADAR RETURNS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ARE ELEVATED AND NOT REACHING THE
GROUND AS THE SUB CLOUD LAYER REMAINS QUITE DRY THANKS TO HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...THE LATEST RETURNS
ARE ALREADY INDICATING WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND WILL LIKELY SET
UP...ACROSS SE VA/NE NC. ALOFT...LATEST GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
RAOB PLOTS DEPICT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE MID MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY.
THIS SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES THRU THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH HEIGHT FALLS FURTHER DEEPENING THE SFC LOW OFF THE SC
COAST. THIS WILL LIKELY PUSH THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND SWWD
SLIGHTLY...WITH THE ADDED DYNAMICS DEEPENING THE MOISTURE FIELDS.
THIS IS HANDLED WELL IN THE BUFR SOUNDINGS AND ISENTROPIC FIELDS.
EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN FALLING BY LATE MORNING TO AROUND NOON ACROSS
NE NC/EXTREME SE VA...SPREADING NWD THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. STILL
REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE SPREAD WITH REGARDS TO
QPF...WHICH WILL OF COURSE HAVE IMPACTS ON TOTAL SNOWFALL. TAKING A
BLEND OF THE FAVORED SHORT TERM GUIDANCE STILL YIELDS A QPF FORECAST
SIMILAR TO 24 HOURS AGO. THUS THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF 10-15:1
SNOWFALL IS STILL FAVORED OVER NE NC AROUND THE ALBEMARLE SOUND.
AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES ARE STILL EXPECTED...WITH SOME BANDING
EXPECTED AS NAM12 DEPICTS BEST FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THAT REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOCALIZED 5 INCH
AMOUNTS. AMOUNTS TAPER OFF TO 1 TO 3 INCHES INTO HAMPTON ROADS AND
TOWARDS SOUTHAMPTON AND ISLE OF WIGHT COUNTIES. BASED ON
AFOREMENTIONED QPF DISCREPANCIES...THERE STILL REMAINS A QUESTION OF
HOW FAR NORTH LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE
AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND LIFTS ALONG THE COAST EARLY AFTERNOON.
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AS BETTER FORCING ARRIVES
OVER CENTRAL VA. MOISTURE IS NOT AS DEEP INTO CENTRAL VA...BUT
THERMAL PROFILES/CROSS SECTIONS STILL INDICATE HIGH RH/ICE IN THE
SNOW GROWTH ZONE WITH PLENTY OF OMEGA. BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER LEVELS...STILL THINKING THIS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR LIGHT SNOW
INTO THE TRI-CITIES AND RICHMOND AREA. HOWEVER...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
WILL TAPER OFF TO LESS THAN HALF AN INCH TOWARDS RICHMOND DUE TO
SHORT DURATION. COLD SURFACE/ROADWAYS WILL ALLOW ANY SNOW THAT FALLS
TO ACCUMULATE ON THE ROADWAYS...SO DRIVING WILL STILL BE IMPACTED.
FARTHER NORTHWEST OF RICHMOND COULD SEE JUST A DUSTING.

TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE MID 30S TODAY THANKS TO
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP.

SNOW COMES TO AN END THIS EVENG/EARLY TNGT...AS THE SFC LO PUSHES
WELL ENE OF THE MID-ATLC CST AND THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES THRU THE
REGION. CLEARING SW TO NE LATE TONIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW/ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR VORTEX DIGS
OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. ~1040MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE MIDWEST...USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDY SAT WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH (STRONGER NEAR THE COAST AND
OVER THE EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS SAT FORECAST TO WARM ONLY INTO THE
MID 20S NW TO LOW 30S SE (-2 STD DEV) UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE TEENS...RESULTING IN A
RAW/COLD/WINDY DAY. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS SAT NIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE INLAND AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...BUT WIND CHILLS STILL FORECAST IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
INLAND TO 0 TO 8 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN SHORE. THE HIGH CENTERS
OVER THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WITH NLY WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. SLIGHTLY
COLDER SUN WITH DECREASED MIXING. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER
20S (-2 STD DEV) UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ATTENTION
TURNING TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. THERE
REMAINS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS...ALTHOUGH
THE 11/12Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING SLOWER...AND WARMER FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. THE 11/12Z GFS CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PCPN MONDAY AS A NRN STREAM TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WOULD MAINLY FALL AS SN OR SN/IP...WITH A TRANSITION TO
RA CLOSER TO THE COAST BY AFTERNOON. SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT WOULD
GENERALLY RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO RA MONDAY NIGHT...ASIDE FROM THE
FAR NW WHERE MIXED PCPN COULD PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH AN
IN-SITU WEDGE IN PLACE. THE LATEST DATA SCOURS OUT THE WEDGE BY
AFTERNOON WITH P-TYPE BECOMING RA EVEN IN THE FAR NW. DRYING OCCURS
MIDWEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE
CLIPPING THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
OF COOLER AIR AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS MONDAY WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW 30S ALONG
AND W OF I-95...WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW 40S. TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY MONDAY EVENING AND BEGIN TO RISE
OVERNIGHT EVENTUALLY WARMING INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S...FOLLOWED BY
LOW 40S NE...TO UPPER 40S SW THURSDAY. MORNING LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WK SFC LO PRES WILL BE EXITING NC/SC CST THIS AFTN/EVE. BROAD AREA
OF SN TO MOVE ACRS MNLY SE VA/NE NC. PD OF MDT SN PSBL FM ABT
20-23Z/12...ESP AT ECG. ELSW...DRY LO LVL ATMOS XPD TO PREVENT
ANYTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES RIC-SBY.

TROUGH ALOFT TO PUSH ACRS THE RGN TNGT...PTNTL FOR SCT -SN...MNLY
INVOF SBY FM ABT 02-03Z TO 08-09Z/13. OTRW...STRONG CDFNT TO PUSH
ACRS THE RGN OVRNGT. GUSTY NW WNDS TO 25-35 KT TO DEVELOP LT
TNGT/EARLY SAT MRNG...CONTG THROUGH THE DAY SAT. VFR AND DRY WX
WILL PREVAIL SAT THROUGH SUN NGT. PCPN DEVELOPS MONDAY AS THE NEXT
WX SYS APPROACHES FROM THE W. PCPN BEGINS AS SNOW MON MRNG...MNLY
INLAND...BEFORE WARMER AIR WORKS IN AND CHANGES ANY SN TO RA FROM
SE TO NW DURING MON. RA CONTS INTO TUESDAY AS LO PRES TRACKS ACRS
THE AREA. DRY WX RETURNS WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES TODAY AS THE MARINE AREA WINDS WILL GNRLY BE AOB 15KTS
AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRS PROGGED TO MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW WILL NOT BRING ANY WIND RELATED MARINE
HEADLINES...THE ASSCTD PCPN WILL BRING REDUCED VSBYS IN SNOW/SLEET
OF VARYING INTENSITIES LATE THIS AFTRN AND EVE.

AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-40KT OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO
5-8FT WITH 4-5 FT WAVES IN THE BAY. GALE FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR
LATE TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND
SPEEDS HAVE BEEN CAPPED AT HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME.

EXPANDED THE FREEZING SPRAY WINDOW TO INCLUDE SAT...SAT NITE AND SUN
MORN GIVEN FCSTD WND SPEEDS / GUSTS COMBINED WITH AIR TMPS BELOW 30
DEGREES. LIMITED THE FREEZING SPRAY TO THE MORE OPEN CHES BAY AND
CSTL WATER AREAS. PER COORD WITH PHL...HOISTED FREEZING SPRAY ADVSRY
FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL. THIS MEANS LIGHT TO MDT ACCUMULATION OF
ICE CAN BE EXPECTED ON VESSELS.

THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES
ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES / LOW WATER ADVISORIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NCZ012>014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ015>017-
     030>032-102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ092-
     093-095>098-100-523>525.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ633-635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB/MPR
MARINE...MPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 121756
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1256 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
MORNING...LIFTING NORTHEAST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA
COASTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE SC COAST THIS MORNING. RADAR
RETURNS DEPICTING CONVECTION AROUND THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE LOW.
RADAR RETURNS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ARE ELEVATED AND NOT REACHING THE
GROUND AS THE SUB CLOUD LAYER REMAINS QUITE DRY THANKS TO HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...THE LATEST RETURNS
ARE ALREADY INDICATING WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND WILL LIKELY SET
UP...ACROSS SE VA/NE NC. ALOFT...LATEST GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
RAOB PLOTS DEPICT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE MID MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY.
THIS SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES THRU THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH HEIGHT FALLS FURTHER DEEPENING THE SFC LOW OFF THE SC
COAST. THIS WILL LIKELY PUSH THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND SWWD
SLIGHTLY...WITH THE ADDED DYNAMICS DEEPENING THE MOISTURE FIELDS.
THIS IS HANDLED WELL IN THE BUFR SOUNDINGS AND ISENTROPIC FIELDS.
EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN FALLING BY LATE MORNING TO AROUND NOON ACROSS
NE NC/EXTREME SE VA...SPREADING NWD THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. STILL
REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE SPREAD WITH REGARDS TO
QPF...WHICH WILL OF COURSE HAVE IMPACTS ON TOTAL SNOWFALL. TAKING A
BLEND OF THE FAVORED SHORT TERM GUIDANCE STILL YIELDS A QPF FORECAST
SIMILAR TO 24 HOURS AGO. THUS THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF 10-15:1
SNOWFALL IS STILL FAVORED OVER NE NC AROUND THE ALBEMARLE SOUND.
AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES ARE STILL EXPECTED...WITH SOME BANDING
EXPECTED AS NAM12 DEPICTS BEST FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THAT REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOCALIZED 5 INCH
AMOUNTS. AMOUNTS TAPER OFF TO 1 TO 3 INCHES INTO HAMPTON ROADS AND
TOWARDS SOUTHAMPTON AND ISLE OF WIGHT COUNTIES. BASED ON
AFOREMENTIONED QPF DISCREPANCIES...THERE STILL REMAINS A QUESTION OF
HOW FAR NORTH LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE
AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND LIFTS ALONG THE COAST EARLY AFTERNOON.
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AS BETTER FORCING ARRIVES
OVER CENTRAL VA. MOISTURE IS NOT AS DEEP INTO CENTRAL VA...BUT
THERMAL PROFILES/CROSS SECTIONS STILL INDICATE HIGH RH/ICE IN THE
SNOW GROWTH ZONE WITH PLENTY OF OMEGA. BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER LEVELS...STILL THINKING THIS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR LIGHT SNOW
INTO THE TRI-CITIES AND RICHMOND AREA. HOWEVER...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
WILL TAPER OFF TO LESS THAN HALF AN INCH TOWARDS RICHMOND DUE TO
SHORT DURATION. COLD SURFACE/ROADWAYS WILL ALLOW ANY SNOW THAT FALLS
TO ACCUMULATE ON THE ROADWAYS...SO DRIVING WILL STILL BE IMPACTED.
FARTHER NORTHWEST OF RICHMOND COULD SEE JUST A DUSTING.

TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE MID 30S TODAY THANKS TO
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP.

SNOW COMES TO AN END THIS EVENG/EARLY TNGT...AS THE SFC LO PUSHES
WELL ENE OF THE MID-ATLC CST AND THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES THRU THE
REGION. CLEARING SW TO NE LATE TONIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW/ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR VORTEX DIGS
OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. ~1040MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE MIDWEST...USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDY SAT WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH (STRONGER NEAR THE COAST AND
OVER THE EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS SAT FORECAST TO WARM ONLY INTO THE
MID 20S NW TO LOW 30S SE (-2 STD DEV) UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE TEENS...RESULTING IN A
RAW/COLD/WINDY DAY. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS SAT NIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE INLAND AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...BUT WIND CHILLS STILL FORECAST IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
INLAND TO 0 TO 8 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN SHORE. THE HIGH CENTERS
OVER THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WITH NLY WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. SLIGHTLY
COLDER SUN WITH DECREASED MIXING. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER
20S (-2 STD DEV) UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ATTENTION
TURNING TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. THERE
REMAINS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS...ALTHOUGH
THE 11/12Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING SLOWER...AND WARMER FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. THE 11/12Z GFS CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PCPN MONDAY AS A NRN STREAM TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WOULD MAINLY FALL AS SN OR SN/IP...WITH A TRANSITION TO
RA CLOSER TO THE COAST BY AFTERNOON. SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT WOULD
GENERALLY RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO RA MONDAY NIGHT...ASIDE FROM THE
FAR NW WHERE MIXED PCPN COULD PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH AN
IN-SITU WEDGE IN PLACE. THE LATEST DATA SCOURS OUT THE WEDGE BY
AFTERNOON WITH P-TYPE BECOMING RA EVEN IN THE FAR NW. DRYING OCCURS
MIDWEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE
CLIPPING THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
OF COOLER AIR AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS MONDAY WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW 30S ALONG
AND W OF I-95...WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW 40S. TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY MONDAY EVENING AND BEGIN TO RISE
OVERNIGHT EVENTUALLY WARMING INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S...FOLLOWED BY
LOW 40S NE...TO UPPER 40S SW THURSDAY. MORNING LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WK SFC LO PRES WILL BE EXITING NC/SC CST THIS AFTN/EVE. BROAD AREA
OF SN TO MOVE ACRS MNLY SE VA/NE NC. PD OF MDT SN PSBL FM ABT
20-23Z/12...ESP AT ECG. ELSW...DRY LO LVL ATMOS XPD TO PREVENT
ANYTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES RIC-SBY.

TROUGH ALOFT TO PUSH ACRS THE RGN TNGT...PTNTL FOR SCT -SN...MNLY
INVOF SBY FM ABT 02-03Z TO 08-09Z/13. OTRW...STRONG CDFNT TO PUSH
ACRS THE RGN OVRNGT. GUSTY NW WNDS TO 25-35 KT TO DEVELOP LT
TNGT/EARLY SAT MRNG...CONTG THROUGH THE DAY SAT. VFR AND DRY WX
WILL PREVAIL SAT THROUGH SUN NGT. PCPN DEVELOPS MONDAY AS THE NEXT
WX SYS APPROACHES FROM THE W. PCPN BEGINS AS SNOW MON MRNG...MNLY
INLAND...BEFORE WARMER AIR WORKS IN AND CHANGES ANY SN TO RA FROM
SE TO NW DURING MON. RA CONTS INTO TUESDAY AS LO PRES TRACKS ACRS
THE AREA. DRY WX RETURNS WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES TODAY AS THE MARINE AREA WINDS WILL GNRLY BE AOB 15KTS
AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRS PROGGED TO MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW WILL NOT BRING ANY WIND RELATED MARINE
HEADLINES...THE ASSCTD PCPN WILL BRING REDUCED VSBYS IN SNOW/SLEET
OF VARYING INTENSITIES LATE THIS AFTRN AND EVE.

AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-40KT OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO
5-8FT WITH 4-5 FT WAVES IN THE BAY. GALE FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR
LATE TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND
SPEEDS HAVE BEEN CAPPED AT HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME.

EXPANDED THE FREEZING SPRAY WINDOW TO INCLUDE SAT...SAT NITE AND SUN
MORN GIVEN FCSTD WND SPEEDS / GUSTS COMBINED WITH AIR TMPS BELOW 30
DEGREES. LIMITED THE FREEZING SPRAY TO THE MORE OPEN CHES BAY AND
CSTL WATER AREAS. PER COORD WITH PHL...HOISTED FREEZING SPRAY ADVSRY
FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL. THIS MEANS LIGHT TO MDT ACCUMULATION OF
ICE CAN BE EXPECTED ON VESSELS.

THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES
ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES / LOW WATER ADVISORIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NCZ012>014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ015>017-
     030>032-102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ092-
     093-095>098-100-523>525.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ633-635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB/MPR
MARINE...MPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 121750
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1250 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST TODAY, WHILE
ANOTHER MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. BITTER
COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN DURING THE WEEKEND, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY. THIS HIGH WILL BUILD OFFSHORE
MONDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST AND
AFFECT OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM ESTF: FEW CHANGES. A NICE DAY. INCREASING THEN LOWERING
CIRRUS TO A DECK OF CLOUDS NEAR 5000 FT LATE IN THE DAY. WIND
TURNING SOUTHWEST WITH A FEW LATE DAY GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH.

FLURRIES POSSIBLE POCONOS AND EXTREME SOUTH EDGE OF OUR AREA LATE
IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...SHALLOW MOIST ADVECTION ON S-SW FLOW PRIOR TO THE CFP.
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES APPEAR PROBABLE FOR A FEW HOURS NEAR
MIDNIGHT. SW WIND MAY GUST 15 MPH EARLY TONIGHT. THEN A WIND SHIFT
TO NORTHWEST AND GUSTY 20-30 MPH BY DAWN SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
WIND CHILL ADVY WILL POST THIS AFTN, TO CONNECT TO THE ALREADY POSTED
WIND CHILL WARNING FOR EXTREME NW NJ AND THE POCONOS. STILL WANT
TO REVIEW THE UPDATED DETAILS.

DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER MOMENTUM TRANSFER IS FEATURED ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ONCOMING ARCTIC AIRMASS INVASION. LARGE LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES AND BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER INDICATING A POSSIBILITY OF
FLURRIES OR SQUALLS BUT WILL THE SFC TT/TD SPREAD EXCEED 25F AND
MAKE THOSE SQUALLS JUST VIRGA? SEEMS LIKE BEST CHC FOR A SQUALL
WOULD BE THE MORNING.

AM THINKING OF GUSTS 50 MPH IN THE POCONOS AND ALSO SCATTERED 50
MPH GUSTS DEVELOPING IN THE KRDG-KPHL-KILG KACY AND NORTH SIDE OF
DE BAY SLOT FOR THE AFTN. MAY ISSUE A WIND ADVY FOR THIS AT 330 PM
(POTENTIAL WIND ADVY NOON - 6P).

OTHERWISE WIDESPREAD GUSTS 40 MPH SATURDAY WITH PARTLY O MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES .. TENDING TO CLEAR LATE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN FOCUS ON THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE BITTER COLD
AFFECTING THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES AND WIND
CHILLS WILL AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ANY SATURDAY SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END BY THE EVENING, BUT THE WIND
WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINDS, THE
BITTER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. THE WIND CHILL
WARNING ACROSS THE POCONOS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA, SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS WILL OCCUR, WITH
MOST AREAS REACHING INTO -5 TO -15 RANGE.

SUNDAY WILL REMAIN COLD, ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOME DURING
THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE AS THE AIR MASS
WILL BE QUITE DRY; ALTHOUGH MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

HOWEVER, AS WE GO INTO MONDAY, MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN THE RETURN FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE STRENGTHENING ALONG THE
GULF STATES MONDAY, WHILE A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD
TOWARD OUR AREA. OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AFFECTING THE
AREA STARTING MONDAY, AND WITH TEMPERATURES BEING COLD ENOUGH,
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START OUT AS SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN MONDAY NIGHT, AND MAKE ITS
WAY INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY. WARMER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AS
THE LOW MAKES ITS WAY NORTHWARD, SO MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO
TURN TO RAIN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. AS THE LOW LIFTS TO OUR NORTH
TUESDAY NIGHT, WE COULD HAVE SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION ON
THE BACKSIDE, WHICH COULD TURN BACK TO SNOW.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE LOW LIFTS WELL TO OUR NORTH, AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR
WEST.SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW.THE PRECIPITATION COULD CHANGE TO RAIN FOR MANY
AREAS DURING THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS EVENING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE TERMINALS.

TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE WEST. AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS TO DEVELOP
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH ALL TERMINALS. VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
TO MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE SNOW SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. ONCE THE
SHOWERS CLEAR THE REGION, BETWEEN 05-09Z FROM WEST TO EAST, A RETURN
TO VFR CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED. SNOW SHOWERS MAY DISSIPATE BEFORE
FULLY REACHING KACY AND KMIV BUT LATEST GUIDANCE LEADS US TO INCLUDE
THE SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.

SATURDAY...THE BIGGEST ISSUE AFFECTING AVIATION TRAVEL ON SATURDAY
WILL BE THE WINDS. BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT, THE WINDS
WILL QUICKLY TURN TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST AND BECOME VERY GUSTY.
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15-20 KNOTS BY 12-15Z AND INCREASE
INTO THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS FROM 25 KNOTS EARLY WILL INCREASE TO
NEAR 40 KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST
WINDS 10 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 30-35 KNOTS EARLY, DIMINISHING
SOME OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GUSTS STILL 20-25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...DEGRADING CONDITIONS WITH MVFR/IFR LIKELY
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW POSSIBLY
BEGINNING MONDAY FOR MANY AREAS, POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN AT
TIMES FOR SOME AREAS.

TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE OVER TO RAIN FOR MANY AREAS DURING THE
DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHOULD SEE A LULL IN THE WINDS AND SEAS TODAY AND THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT BUT EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE CONSIDERABLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT, REACHING GALE FORCE ON ALL THE WATERS BEFORE DAWN.
WITH THE INCREASING WINDS, ALSO EXPECT FREEZING SPRAY RATES TO
INCREASE, SO HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FOR THE SAME
PERIOD AS WELL.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING CONTINUES WITH STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT AS VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING AND FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE DAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY RETURN TO THE AREA AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EAST
COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS STILL EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING, DESPITE THE MOS GUIDANCE...AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN SEVERAL DEGREES
OF 2 ABOVE (WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 8
AM SUNDAY EXCEPT COLDER KMPO (NEAR -10F). THIS IS 2F WARMER THAN
EXPECTED THE PAST FEW DAYS.

TRACKING NAM 3HRLY 2M, BL AND 1000MB TEMPS AND IT IS MUCH COLDER
THAN THE GLOBAL MODELS MOS. NAM HAS BEEN STEADY THE PAST 4 CYCLES.
PHL+2 (-19C 1000MB), MPO -11 (-23C). USING THE NAM GUIDANCE AND
POSSIBLE BLEND WITH 2M NAM/GFS TEMPS SAT AFTN.

BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY:
KABE, KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE 14TH,
IF THEN. THOSE HAVE BEEN ADDED RECENTLY BELOW.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH ----RER LOW MAX
---------------------- --------------------

ABE             8                         -1 IN 1979     14-1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979     13-1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979     14-1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979     13-1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 121750
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1250 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST TODAY, WHILE
ANOTHER MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. BITTER
COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN DURING THE WEEKEND, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY. THIS HIGH WILL BUILD OFFSHORE
MONDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST AND
AFFECT OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM ESTF: FEW CHANGES. A NICE DAY. INCREASING THEN LOWERING
CIRRUS TO A DECK OF CLOUDS NEAR 5000 FT LATE IN THE DAY. WIND
TURNING SOUTHWEST WITH A FEW LATE DAY GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH.

FLURRIES POSSIBLE POCONOS AND EXTREME SOUTH EDGE OF OUR AREA LATE
IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...SHALLOW MOIST ADVECTION ON S-SW FLOW PRIOR TO THE CFP.
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES APPEAR PROBABLE FOR A FEW HOURS NEAR
MIDNIGHT. SW WIND MAY GUST 15 MPH EARLY TONIGHT. THEN A WIND SHIFT
TO NORTHWEST AND GUSTY 20-30 MPH BY DAWN SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
WIND CHILL ADVY WILL POST THIS AFTN, TO CONNECT TO THE ALREADY POSTED
WIND CHILL WARNING FOR EXTREME NW NJ AND THE POCONOS. STILL WANT
TO REVIEW THE UPDATED DETAILS.

DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER MOMENTUM TRANSFER IS FEATURED ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ONCOMING ARCTIC AIRMASS INVASION. LARGE LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES AND BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER INDICATING A POSSIBILITY OF
FLURRIES OR SQUALLS BUT WILL THE SFC TT/TD SPREAD EXCEED 25F AND
MAKE THOSE SQUALLS JUST VIRGA? SEEMS LIKE BEST CHC FOR A SQUALL
WOULD BE THE MORNING.

AM THINKING OF GUSTS 50 MPH IN THE POCONOS AND ALSO SCATTERED 50
MPH GUSTS DEVELOPING IN THE KRDG-KPHL-KILG KACY AND NORTH SIDE OF
DE BAY SLOT FOR THE AFTN. MAY ISSUE A WIND ADVY FOR THIS AT 330 PM
(POTENTIAL WIND ADVY NOON - 6P).

OTHERWISE WIDESPREAD GUSTS 40 MPH SATURDAY WITH PARTLY O MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES .. TENDING TO CLEAR LATE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN FOCUS ON THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE BITTER COLD
AFFECTING THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES AND WIND
CHILLS WILL AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ANY SATURDAY SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END BY THE EVENING, BUT THE WIND
WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINDS, THE
BITTER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. THE WIND CHILL
WARNING ACROSS THE POCONOS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA, SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS WILL OCCUR, WITH
MOST AREAS REACHING INTO -5 TO -15 RANGE.

SUNDAY WILL REMAIN COLD, ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOME DURING
THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE AS THE AIR MASS
WILL BE QUITE DRY; ALTHOUGH MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

HOWEVER, AS WE GO INTO MONDAY, MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN THE RETURN FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE STRENGTHENING ALONG THE
GULF STATES MONDAY, WHILE A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD
TOWARD OUR AREA. OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AFFECTING THE
AREA STARTING MONDAY, AND WITH TEMPERATURES BEING COLD ENOUGH,
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START OUT AS SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN MONDAY NIGHT, AND MAKE ITS
WAY INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY. WARMER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AS
THE LOW MAKES ITS WAY NORTHWARD, SO MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO
TURN TO RAIN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. AS THE LOW LIFTS TO OUR NORTH
TUESDAY NIGHT, WE COULD HAVE SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION ON
THE BACKSIDE, WHICH COULD TURN BACK TO SNOW.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE LOW LIFTS WELL TO OUR NORTH, AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR
WEST.SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW.THE PRECIPITATION COULD CHANGE TO RAIN FOR MANY
AREAS DURING THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS EVENING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE TERMINALS.

TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE WEST. AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS TO DEVELOP
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH ALL TERMINALS. VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
TO MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE SNOW SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. ONCE THE
SHOWERS CLEAR THE REGION, BETWEEN 05-09Z FROM WEST TO EAST, A RETURN
TO VFR CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED. SNOW SHOWERS MAY DISSIPATE BEFORE
FULLY REACHING KACY AND KMIV BUT LATEST GUIDANCE LEADS US TO INCLUDE
THE SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.

SATURDAY...THE BIGGEST ISSUE AFFECTING AVIATION TRAVEL ON SATURDAY
WILL BE THE WINDS. BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT, THE WINDS
WILL QUICKLY TURN TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST AND BECOME VERY GUSTY.
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15-20 KNOTS BY 12-15Z AND INCREASE
INTO THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS FROM 25 KNOTS EARLY WILL INCREASE TO
NEAR 40 KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST
WINDS 10 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 30-35 KNOTS EARLY, DIMINISHING
SOME OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GUSTS STILL 20-25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...DEGRADING CONDITIONS WITH MVFR/IFR LIKELY
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW POSSIBLY
BEGINNING MONDAY FOR MANY AREAS, POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN AT
TIMES FOR SOME AREAS.

TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE OVER TO RAIN FOR MANY AREAS DURING THE
DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHOULD SEE A LULL IN THE WINDS AND SEAS TODAY AND THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT BUT EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE CONSIDERABLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT, REACHING GALE FORCE ON ALL THE WATERS BEFORE DAWN.
WITH THE INCREASING WINDS, ALSO EXPECT FREEZING SPRAY RATES TO
INCREASE, SO HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FOR THE SAME
PERIOD AS WELL.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING CONTINUES WITH STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT AS VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING AND FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE DAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY RETURN TO THE AREA AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EAST
COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS STILL EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING, DESPITE THE MOS GUIDANCE...AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN SEVERAL DEGREES
OF 2 ABOVE (WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 8
AM SUNDAY EXCEPT COLDER KMPO (NEAR -10F). THIS IS 2F WARMER THAN
EXPECTED THE PAST FEW DAYS.

TRACKING NAM 3HRLY 2M, BL AND 1000MB TEMPS AND IT IS MUCH COLDER
THAN THE GLOBAL MODELS MOS. NAM HAS BEEN STEADY THE PAST 4 CYCLES.
PHL+2 (-19C 1000MB), MPO -11 (-23C). USING THE NAM GUIDANCE AND
POSSIBLE BLEND WITH 2M NAM/GFS TEMPS SAT AFTN.

BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY:
KABE, KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE 14TH,
IF THEN. THOSE HAVE BEEN ADDED RECENTLY BELOW.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH ----RER LOW MAX
---------------------- --------------------

ABE             8                         -1 IN 1979     14-1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979     13-1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979     14-1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979     13-1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 121750
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1250 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST TODAY, WHILE
ANOTHER MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. BITTER
COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN DURING THE WEEKEND, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY. THIS HIGH WILL BUILD OFFSHORE
MONDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST AND
AFFECT OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM ESTF: FEW CHANGES. A NICE DAY. INCREASING THEN LOWERING
CIRRUS TO A DECK OF CLOUDS NEAR 5000 FT LATE IN THE DAY. WIND
TURNING SOUTHWEST WITH A FEW LATE DAY GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH.

FLURRIES POSSIBLE POCONOS AND EXTREME SOUTH EDGE OF OUR AREA LATE
IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...SHALLOW MOIST ADVECTION ON S-SW FLOW PRIOR TO THE CFP.
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES APPEAR PROBABLE FOR A FEW HOURS NEAR
MIDNIGHT. SW WIND MAY GUST 15 MPH EARLY TONIGHT. THEN A WIND SHIFT
TO NORTHWEST AND GUSTY 20-30 MPH BY DAWN SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
WIND CHILL ADVY WILL POST THIS AFTN, TO CONNECT TO THE ALREADY POSTED
WIND CHILL WARNING FOR EXTREME NW NJ AND THE POCONOS. STILL WANT
TO REVIEW THE UPDATED DETAILS.

DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER MOMENTUM TRANSFER IS FEATURED ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ONCOMING ARCTIC AIRMASS INVASION. LARGE LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES AND BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER INDICATING A POSSIBILITY OF
FLURRIES OR SQUALLS BUT WILL THE SFC TT/TD SPREAD EXCEED 25F AND
MAKE THOSE SQUALLS JUST VIRGA? SEEMS LIKE BEST CHC FOR A SQUALL
WOULD BE THE MORNING.

AM THINKING OF GUSTS 50 MPH IN THE POCONOS AND ALSO SCATTERED 50
MPH GUSTS DEVELOPING IN THE KRDG-KPHL-KILG KACY AND NORTH SIDE OF
DE BAY SLOT FOR THE AFTN. MAY ISSUE A WIND ADVY FOR THIS AT 330 PM
(POTENTIAL WIND ADVY NOON - 6P).

OTHERWISE WIDESPREAD GUSTS 40 MPH SATURDAY WITH PARTLY O MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES .. TENDING TO CLEAR LATE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN FOCUS ON THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE BITTER COLD
AFFECTING THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES AND WIND
CHILLS WILL AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ANY SATURDAY SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END BY THE EVENING, BUT THE WIND
WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINDS, THE
BITTER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. THE WIND CHILL
WARNING ACROSS THE POCONOS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA, SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS WILL OCCUR, WITH
MOST AREAS REACHING INTO -5 TO -15 RANGE.

SUNDAY WILL REMAIN COLD, ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOME DURING
THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE AS THE AIR MASS
WILL BE QUITE DRY; ALTHOUGH MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

HOWEVER, AS WE GO INTO MONDAY, MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN THE RETURN FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE STRENGTHENING ALONG THE
GULF STATES MONDAY, WHILE A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD
TOWARD OUR AREA. OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AFFECTING THE
AREA STARTING MONDAY, AND WITH TEMPERATURES BEING COLD ENOUGH,
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START OUT AS SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN MONDAY NIGHT, AND MAKE ITS
WAY INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY. WARMER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AS
THE LOW MAKES ITS WAY NORTHWARD, SO MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO
TURN TO RAIN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. AS THE LOW LIFTS TO OUR NORTH
TUESDAY NIGHT, WE COULD HAVE SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION ON
THE BACKSIDE, WHICH COULD TURN BACK TO SNOW.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE LOW LIFTS WELL TO OUR NORTH, AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR
WEST.SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW.THE PRECIPITATION COULD CHANGE TO RAIN FOR MANY
AREAS DURING THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS EVENING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE TERMINALS.

TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE WEST. AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS TO DEVELOP
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH ALL TERMINALS. VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
TO MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE SNOW SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. ONCE THE
SHOWERS CLEAR THE REGION, BETWEEN 05-09Z FROM WEST TO EAST, A RETURN
TO VFR CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED. SNOW SHOWERS MAY DISSIPATE BEFORE
FULLY REACHING KACY AND KMIV BUT LATEST GUIDANCE LEADS US TO INCLUDE
THE SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.

SATURDAY...THE BIGGEST ISSUE AFFECTING AVIATION TRAVEL ON SATURDAY
WILL BE THE WINDS. BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT, THE WINDS
WILL QUICKLY TURN TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST AND BECOME VERY GUSTY.
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15-20 KNOTS BY 12-15Z AND INCREASE
INTO THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS FROM 25 KNOTS EARLY WILL INCREASE TO
NEAR 40 KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST
WINDS 10 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 30-35 KNOTS EARLY, DIMINISHING
SOME OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GUSTS STILL 20-25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...DEGRADING CONDITIONS WITH MVFR/IFR LIKELY
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW POSSIBLY
BEGINNING MONDAY FOR MANY AREAS, POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN AT
TIMES FOR SOME AREAS.

TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE OVER TO RAIN FOR MANY AREAS DURING THE
DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHOULD SEE A LULL IN THE WINDS AND SEAS TODAY AND THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT BUT EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE CONSIDERABLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT, REACHING GALE FORCE ON ALL THE WATERS BEFORE DAWN.
WITH THE INCREASING WINDS, ALSO EXPECT FREEZING SPRAY RATES TO
INCREASE, SO HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FOR THE SAME
PERIOD AS WELL.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING CONTINUES WITH STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT AS VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING AND FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE DAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY RETURN TO THE AREA AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EAST
COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS STILL EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING, DESPITE THE MOS GUIDANCE...AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN SEVERAL DEGREES
OF 2 ABOVE (WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 8
AM SUNDAY EXCEPT COLDER KMPO (NEAR -10F). THIS IS 2F WARMER THAN
EXPECTED THE PAST FEW DAYS.

TRACKING NAM 3HRLY 2M, BL AND 1000MB TEMPS AND IT IS MUCH COLDER
THAN THE GLOBAL MODELS MOS. NAM HAS BEEN STEADY THE PAST 4 CYCLES.
PHL+2 (-19C 1000MB), MPO -11 (-23C). USING THE NAM GUIDANCE AND
POSSIBLE BLEND WITH 2M NAM/GFS TEMPS SAT AFTN.

BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY:
KABE, KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE 14TH,
IF THEN. THOSE HAVE BEEN ADDED RECENTLY BELOW.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH ----RER LOW MAX
---------------------- --------------------

ABE             8                         -1 IN 1979     14-1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979     13-1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979     14-1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979     13-1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 121543
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1043 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
MORNING...LIFTING NORTHEAST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA
COASTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE SC COAST THIS MORNING. RADAR
RETURNS DEPICTING CONVECTION AROUND THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE LOW.
RADAR RETURNS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ARE ELEVATED AND NOT REACHING THE
GROUND AS THE SUB CLOUD LAYER REMAINS QUITE DRY THANKS TO HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...THE LATEST RETURNS
ARE ALREADY INDICATING WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND WILL LIKELY SET
UP...ACROSS SE VA/NE NC. ALOFT...LATEST GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
RAOB PLOTS DEPICT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE MID MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY.
THIS SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES THRU THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH HEIGHT FALLS FURTHER DEEPENING THE SFC LOW OFF THE SC
COAST. THIS WILL LIKELY PUSH THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND SWWD
SLIGHTLY...WITH THE ADDED DYNAMICS DEEPENING THE MOISTURE FIELDS.
THIS IS HANDLED WELL IN THE BUFR SOUNDINGS AND ISENTROPIC FIELDS.
EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN FALLING BY LATE MORNING TO AROUND NOON ACROSS
NE NC/EXTREME SE VA...SPREADING NWD THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. STILL
REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE SPREAD WITH REGARDS TO
QPF...WHICH WILL OF COURSE HAVE IMPACTS ON TOTAL SNOWFALL. TAKING A
BLEND OF THE FAVORED SHORT TERM GUIDANCE STILL YIELDS A QPF FORECAST
SIMILAR TO 24 HOURS AGO. THUS THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF 10-15:1
SNOWFALL IS STILL FAVORED OVER NE NC AROUND THE ALBEMARLE SOUND.
AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES ARE STILL EXPECTED...WITH SOME BANDING
EXPECTED AS NAM12 DEPICTS BEST FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THAT REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOCALIZED 5 INCH
AMOUNTS. AMOUNTS TAPER OFF TO 1 TO 3 INCHES INTO HAMPTON ROADS AND
TOWARDS SOUTHAMPTON AND ISLE OF WIGHT COUNTIES. BASED ON
AFOREMENTIONED QPF DISCREPANCIES...THERE STILL REMAINS A QUESTION OF
HOW FAR NORTH LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE
AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND LIFTS ALONG THE COAST EARLY AFTERNOON.
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AS BETTER FORCING ARRIVES
OVER CENTRAL VA. MOISTURE IS NOT AS DEEP INTO CENTRAL VA...BUT
THERMAL PROFILES/CROSS SECTIONS STILL INDICATE HIGH RH/ICE IN THE
SNOW GROWTH ZONE WITH PLENTY OF OMEGA. BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER LEVELS...STILL THINKING THIS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR LIGHT SNOW
INTO THE TRI-CITIES AND RICHMOND AREA. HOWEVER...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
WILL TAPER OFF TO LESS THAN HALF AN INCH TOWARDS RICHMOND DUE TO
SHORT DURATION. COLD SURFACE/ROADWAYS WILL ALLOW ANY SNOW THAT FALLS
TO ACCUMULATE ON THE ROADWAYS...SO DRIVING WILL STILL BE IMPACTED.
FARTHER NORTHWEST OF RICHMOND COULD SEE JUST A DUSTING.

TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE MID 30S TODAY THANKS TO
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP.

SNOW COMES TO AN END THIS EVENG/EARLY TNGT...AS THE SFC LO PUSHES
WELL ENE OF THE MID-ATLC CST AND THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES THRU THE
REGION. CLEARING SW TO NE LATE TONIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW/ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR VORTEX DIGS
OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. ~1040MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE MIDWEST...USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDY SAT WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH (STRONGER NEAR THE COAST AND
OVER THE EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS SAT FORECAST TO WARM ONLY INTO THE
MID 20S NW TO LOW 30S SE (-2 STD DEV) UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE TEENS...RESULTING IN A
RAW/COLD/WINDY DAY. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS SAT NIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE INLAND AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...BUT WIND CHILLS STILL FORECAST IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
INLAND TO 0 TO 8 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN SHORE. THE HIGH CENTERS
OVER THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WITH NLY WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. SLIGHTLY
COLDER SUN WITH DECREASED MIXING. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER
20S (-2 STD DEV) UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ATTENTION
TURNING TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. THERE
REMAINS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS...ALTHOUGH
THE 11/12Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING SLOWER...AND WARMER FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. THE 11/12Z GFS CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PCPN MONDAY AS A NRN STREAM TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WOULD MAINLY FALL AS SN OR SN/IP...WITH A TRANSITION TO
RA CLOSER TO THE COAST BY AFTERNOON. SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT WOULD
GENERALLY RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO RA MONDAY NIGHT...ASIDE FROM THE
FAR NW WHERE MIXED PCPN COULD PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH AN
IN-SITU WEDGE IN PLACE. THE LATEST DATA SCOURS OUT THE WEDGE BY
AFTERNOON WITH P-TYPE BECOMING RA EVEN IN THE FAR NW. DRYING OCCURS
MIDWEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE
CLIPPING THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
OF COOLER AIR AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS MONDAY WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW 30S ALONG
AND W OF I-95...WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW 40S. TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY MONDAY EVENING AND BEGIN TO RISE
OVERNIGHT EVENTUALLY WARMING INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S...FOLLOWED BY
LOW 40S NE...TO UPPER 40S SW THURSDAY. MORNING LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CHALLENGING FORECAST LATER TODAY AS THE LATEST HIGH RES DATA KEEPS
THE FA DRY THRU 18Z AND SHOWS MOST OF THE SGNFCNT MSTR WITH THIS
CSTL LOW HUGS THE OUTER BANKS WITH LTL IN THE WAY OF SPRT/QPF FOR
SGNFCNT ACCUMS ACROSS SERN VA AND POINTS TO THE NW. THUS...VFR
CNDTNS WILL BE MAINTAINED THRU 18Z. BROUGHT SN INTO ECG/ORF AND
PHF ARND 21Z WITH A 2-3 HR PRD OF MDT SNOW PSBL BY 00Z WHICH IS
WHERE ANY ACCUMLS WUD OCCUR. KEPT A SNPL MIX AT ECG AS SNDGS DO
SHOW SOME MARINE INFLUENCES OCCURRING BEFORE PCPN ENDS. LTST DATA
INDCTG THAT MOST PCPN REMAINS EAST OF SBY...BUT DID KEEP A 4 HR
PRD OF LGHT SNOW THERE THIS EVE. DATA ALSO SPRTG A PSBL SNOW SHWR
ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS WITH THE ACTUAL ARCTIC FRNT AS IT CROSSES
THE RGN TONITE. MVFR CIGS XPCTD WITH THE SNOW BUT IFR VSBYS ARE
LIKELY IN ANY HEAVIER SNOW BANDS. LOW DP TMPS/DRY AIRMASS OVR THE
PIEDMONT SHUD PREVENT ANYTHING MORE THAN SCT FLURRIES AT RIC.

OUTLOOK...GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP SATURDAY MORNING. VFR AND DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN DEVELOPS MONDAY AS
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW. PCPN BEGINS AS
SNOW UNDER A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUT THIS BREAKS DOWN AND WARMER
AIR WORKS IN AND CHANGES SNOW TO RAIN FROM SE TO NW.

RAIN CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
DRY WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES TODAY AS THE MARINE AREA WINDS WILL GNRLY BE AOB 15KTS
AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRS PROGGED TO MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW WILL NOT BRING ANY WIND RELATED MARINE
HEADLINES...THE ASSCTD PCPN WILL BRING REDUCED VSBYS IN SNOW/SLEET
OF VARYING INTENSITIES LATE THIS AFTRN AND EVE.

AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-40KT OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO
5-8FT WITH 4-5 FT WAVES IN THE BAY. GALE FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR
LATE TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND
SPEEDS HAVE BEEN CAPPED AT HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME.

EXPANDED THE FREEZING SPRAY WINDOW TO INCLUDE SAT...SAT NITE AND SUN
MORN GIVEN FCSTD WND SPEEDS / GUSTS COMBINED WITH AIR TMPS BELOW 30
DEGREES. LIMITED THE FREEZING SPRAY TO THE MORE OPEN CHES BAY AND
CSTL WATER AREAS. PER COORD WITH PHL...HOISTED FREEZING SPRAY ADVSRY
FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL. THIS MEANS LIGHT TO MDT ACCUMULATION OF
ICE CAN BE EXPECTED ON VESSELS.

THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES
ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES / LOW WATER ADVISORIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NCZ012>014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ015>017-
     030>032-102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ092-
     093-095>098-100-523>525.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ633-635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KLWX 121511
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1011 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN ITS WAKE FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE
AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY. HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN
OVERHEAD AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT.

THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
FROM THE WEST. THIS ENERGY WILL COMBINE WITH FORCING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
CLIMO...RANGING FROM THE TEENS AND 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
LOWER 30S IN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
CFP TNGT...BRINGING A HOST OF POTL HAZARDS. ISSUES ARE WINDS...
SNOW... AND WIND CHILL.

SNOW...PARAMETERS LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
COINCIDENT W/ THE FNT TNGT.  SCALE OF THREAT LKLY FINER THAN
GDNC...SO AM ABV MOS. ACCUMS WUD BE UNDER AN INCH...AND WUD BE ONT
HE ERN SHORE BEFORE MIDNGT.

IN THE MTNS...THE TRAJ FVRBL FOR UPSLP TNGT-SAT...AND THE DRY AMS
WUD LEAD TO A HIGH SNOW RATIO. THIS WL ACCUM SVRL INCHES. HWVR...AM
JUST UNDER ADVY CRITERIA...WHICH IS SOMEWHAT FITTING SINCE SNOW
GROWTH ZONE LOW...AND NOT INTERSECTING THE BEST LIFT.

WINDS...ATMOS WL BE WELL MIXED IN STRONG CAA POST-FRONT. MDL SNDGS
SUGGEST 30-SOMETHING KT GUSTS. WUDNT RULE OUT A FEW 40 KTS.
CONFIDENCE NOT QUITE THERE FOR WIND ADVYS. ADMITTEDLY ITS CLOSE FOR
THE MTNS.

TEMPS...CONTINING TEMP FCSTS ON THE LOW END OF GDNC...BOTH MIN-T
TNGT AND MAXT SAT.

WIND CHILLS...COMBINE THE PREV TWO BULLETS...AND WIND CHILLS WL
DEFINITELY BE A FACTOR. BEST CHC AT ADVY IN THE MTNS. IT FALLS ABT 5-
10 DEGF SHORT ELSW. PROJECTING ONWARD THOUGH...THE MTNS ALMOST
THREATEN WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA...SPCLY SAT NGT INTO SUN.
ELSW...FCST VALUES FLIRT W/ ADVY CRITERIA SAT NGT-SUN. MINDFUL THAT
WE/RE SVRL CYCLES OUT...AND NOTHING SEEMS SLAM-DUNK OTHER THAN WIND
CHILL ADVYS IN THE MTNS...WUD RATHER NOT MAKE FIRM WRNG/ADVY
DECISION YET. COGNIZANT OF THE THREAT THO...WL BE ISSUING WIND CHILL
WATCHES FOR THE MTNS...WHERE VALUES ARE THE LOWEST. OTHER COUNTIES
WL BE CARRIED IN THE HWO. HOPEFULLY...LATER SHIFTS WL BE ABLE TO
MAKE BETTER-INFORMED DECISIONS.

BY SUN...THE RDG WL BE OVERHEAD...AND THE ONLY HAZARD LEFT WL BE
COLD TEMPS.  MAY HV PCPN RETURNING LT SUN NGT AHD OF NXT SYSTEM. HV
CHCS TO COVER. MORE IN LONG TERM DSCN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
RETREATING QUICKLY ON MON WITH MOISTURE ADVANCING QUICKLY NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF A SRN STREAM SYSTEM FOR A POTENTIAL BIG MESS MON-TUE WITH
HEAVY PRECIP AMOUNTS. POTENTIAL FOR 6+ INCHES OF SNOW APPEARS TO BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WITH SIGNIFICANT ICING FROM
THERE TO THE ROUTE 15 CORRIDOR AND LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP TO MOSTLY
RAIN EAST OF THERE. THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN MODELS TO
BRING SFC TEMPS ABV FREEZING EVERYWHERE BY 18Z TUE WITH 50S POSSIBLE
OVER EASTERN AREAS AS H85 TEMPS CLIMB ABV 5C AS STRONG SRLY WINDS
DEVELOP. IN ADDITION TO WINTRY PRECIP CONCERNS...LATEST 00Z ECMWF
INDICATES HEAVY PRECIP AMOUNTS UP TO 3.5 INCHES WATER EQUIVALENT
WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING ISSUES. WARMER TEMPS...RUNOFF AND
SNOWMELT COULD LEAD TO ICE JAM FLOODING PROBLEMS ESPECIALLY AFTER
THIS WEEKEND`S FRIGID AIR MASS.

BY MID WEEK...SRN STREAM SYSTEM MERGES/PHASES WITH A NRN STREAM
DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH SYSTEM INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
LEADING TO STRONG NW FLOW AND DRYING CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY. CDFNT COMING THIS
EVNG...PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHSN. AREAL CVRG/CONFIDENCE IN
A PT FCST THE CONCERN. THUS...THESE DO NOT APPEAR IN TAFS ATTM.
WUD HV BREIF IFR IF AIRFIELD AFFECTED.

WINDS BECOME NW AND PICK UP POST-FRONT...WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE MID
30S AFTR MIDNGT TNGT THRU SAT AFTN.

HIPRES BLDS SAT NGT-SUN. WINDS GRDLY DIMINISHING. NO OTHER
RESTRICTIONS ANTICIPATED.

SIG WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION MON-TUE WITH HEAVY WINTRY
PRECIP MON-MON NIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ESPECIALLY AT
KCHO...KIAD AND KMRB BEFORE IT TURNS TO ALL RAIN TUE AFTERNOON. IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY MON-TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CDFNT
COMING TNGT...PRODUCING NW WINDS W/ 30-40KT GUSTS. THREAT WUD LKLY
BEGIN ARND/JUST AFTR MIDNGT. FOR SIMPLICITY...HV RAISED GLW
TNGT...AND CARRIED IT THRU SAT NGT. SCA LKLY ON SUN... WHICH CAN
BE ADDRESSED LATER.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     MDZ501-502.
VA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     VAZ503-504.
WV...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     WVZ501>506.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ530>543.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...BJL/HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...BJL/LFR/HTS
MARINE...BJL/LFR/HTS




000
FXUS61 KPHI 121427
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
927 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST TODAY, WHILE
ANOTHER MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. BITTER
COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN DURING THE WEEKEND, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY. THIS HIGH WILL BUILD OFFSHORE
MONDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST AND
AFFECT OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM ESTF: FEW CHANGES. A NICE DAY. INCREASING THEN LOWERING
CIRRUS TO A DECK OF CLOUDS NEAR 5000 FT LATE IN THE DAY. WIND
TURNING SOUTHWEST WITH A FEW LATE DAY GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH.

FLURRIES POSSIBLE POCONOS AND EXTREME SOUTH EDGE OF OUR AREA LATE
IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...SHALLOW MOIST ADVECTION ON S-SW FLOW PRIOR TO THE CFP.
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES APPEAR PROBABLE FOR A FEW HOURS NEAR
MIDNIGHT. SW WIND MAY GUST 15 MPH EARLY TONIGHT. THEN A WIND SHIFT
TO NORTHWEST AND GUSTY 20-30 MPH BY DAWN SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
WIND CHILL ADVY WILL POST THIS AFTN, TO CONNECT TO THE ALREADY POSTED
WIND CHILL WARNING FOR EXTREME NW NJ AND THE POCONOS. STILL WANT
TO REVIEW THE UPDATED DETAILS.

DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER MOMENTUM TRANSFER IS FEATURED ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ONCOMING ARCTIC AIRMASS INVASION. LARGE LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES AND BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER INDICATING A POSSIBILITY OF
FLURRIES OR SQUALLS BUT WILL THE SFC TT/TD SPREAD EXCEED 25F AND
MAKE THOSE SQUALLS JUST VIRGA? SEEMS LIKE BEST CHC FOR A SQUALL
WOULD BE THE MORNING.

AM THINKING OF GUSTS 50 MPH IN THE POCONOS AND ALSO SCATTERED 50
MPH GUSTS DEVELOPING IN THE KRDG-KPHL-KILG KACY AND NORTH SIDE OF
DE BAY SLOT FOR THE AFTN. MAY ISSUE A WIND ADVY FOR THIS AT 330 PM
(POTENTIAL WIND ADVY NOON - 6P).

OTHERWISE WIDESPREAD GUSTS 40 MPH SATURDAY WITH PARTLY O MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES .. TENDING TO CLEAR LATE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN FOCUS ON THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE BITTER COLD
AFFECTING THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES AND WIND
CHILLS WILL AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ANY SATURDAY SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END BY THE EVENING, BUT THE WIND
WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINDS, THE
BITTER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. THE WIND CHILL
WARNING ACROSS THE POCONOS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA, SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS WILL OCCUR, WITH
MOST AREAS REACHING INTO -5 TO -15 RANGE.

SUNDAY WILL REMAIN COLD, ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOME DURING
THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE AS THE AIR MASS
WILL BE QUITE DRY; ALTHOUGH MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

HOWEVER, AS WE GO INTO MONDAY, MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN THE RETURN FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE STRENGTHENING ALONG THE
GULF STATES MONDAY, WHILE A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD
TOWARD OUR AREA. OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AFFECTING THE
AREA STARTING MONDAY, AND WITH TEMPERATURES BEING COLD ENOUGH,
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START OUT AS SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN MONDAY NIGHT, AND MAKE ITS
WAY INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY. WARMER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AS
THE LOW MAKES ITS WAY NORTHWARD, SO MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO
TURN TO RAIN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. AS THE LOW LIFTS TO OUR NORTH
TUESDAY NIGHT, WE COULD HAVE SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION ON
THE BACKSIDE, WHICH COULD TURN BACK TO SNOW.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE LOW LIFTS WELL TO OUR NORTH, AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR
WEST.SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW.THE PRECIPITATION COULD CHANGE TO RAIN FOR MANY
AREAS DURING THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CIRRUS CIGS LOWERING TO NEAR 5000 FT LATE IN
THE DAY. WIND BECOMES SW WITH GUSTS AROUND 15 KT BY MID OR LATE
AFTERNOON.


TONIGHT...CIGS AOA 5000 FT BUT BRIEF MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN SCT
SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY NEAR MIDNIGHT. SW WIND MAY 15 TO 20 KT
BEFORE SHIFTING NW WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT BY 10Z SATURDAY.

AT THIS POINT, EXPECT THE HIGHEST RISK OF SNOW SHOWERS TO INCLUDE
KABE, KRDG, KTTN, KPNE, AND KPHL, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
AT THE OTHER TAF SITES AS WELL.


SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE, WHICH COULD REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS TEMPORARILY. NORTHWEST
WINDS GUST NEAR 40 KNOTS AT MANY LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY 16Z ONWARD.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST
WINDS 10 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 30-35 KNOTS EARLY, DIMINISHING
SOME OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GUSTS STILL 20-25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...DEGRADING CONDITIONS WITH MVFR/IFR LIKELY
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW POSSIBLY
BEGINNING MONDAY FOR MANY AREAS, POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN AT
TIMES FOR SOME AREAS.

TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE OVER TO RAIN FOR MANY AREAS DURING THE
DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHOULD SEE A LULL IN THE WINDS AND SEAS TODAY AND THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT BUT EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE CONSIDERABLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT, REACHING GALE FORCE ON ALL THE WATERS BEFORE DAWN.
WITH THE INCREASING WINDS, ALSO EXPECT FREEZING SPRAY RATES TO
INCREASE, SO HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FOR THE SAME
PERIOD AS WELL.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING CONTINUES WITH STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT AS VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING AND FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE DAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY RETURN TO THE AREA AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EAST
COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS STILL EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING, DESPITE THE MOS GUIDANCE...AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN SEVERAL DEGREES
OF 2 ABOVE (WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 8
AM SUNDAY EXCEPT COLDER KMPO (NEAR -10F). THIS IS 2F WARMER THAN
EXPECTED THE PAST FEW DAYS.

TRACKING NAM 3HRLY 2M, BL AND 1000MB TEMPS AND IT IS MUCH COLDER
THAN THE GLOBAL MODELS MOS. NAM HAS BEEN STEADY THE PAST 4 CYCLES.
PHL+2 (-19C 1000MB), MPO -11 (-23C). USING THE NAM GUIDANCE AND
POSSIBLE BLEND WITH 2M NAM/GFS TEMPS SAT AFTN.

BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY:
KABE, KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE 14TH,
IF THEN. THOSE HAVE BEEN ADDED RECENTLY BELOW.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH ----RER LOW MAX
---------------------- --------------------

ABE             8                         -1 IN 1979     14-1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979     13-1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979     14-1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979     13-1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970


&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON/DRAG 928
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 928
SHORT TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 928
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON 928
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON 928
CLIMATE...928




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 121417
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
917 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SNOW SNOW TO THE AREA LATER TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORNING ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPERATURES AS THERE IS ENOUGH CLOUD
COVER AND WARM ADVECTION FOR VALUES TO RISE QUICKER THAN FORECAST.
DESPITE RETURNS ON THE RADAR...THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING SHOWS DRY
AIR SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

PREVIOUS...
MODEL AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT LOOKS GOOD...WITH IT
APPROACHING THE NORTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA TOWARD 00Z...AND PITTSBURGH
AROUND 03Z OR SO. THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER IS STILL KEYING ON
THIS BOUNDARY...AND HI- RES REFLECTIVITIES ARE RATHER IMPRESSIVE
AS IT SLICES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...AS IT STRAY FARTHER SOUTH AND AWAY FROM A BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE SOURCE..AKA LAKE ERIE...IT GETS FAR LESS IMPRESSIVE.
THUS...ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE AN INCH OR SO WERE GENERALLY RELEGATED
NORTH OF METRO PITTSBURGH.

BEHIND THE FRONT...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RISING INVERSION
HEIGHTS DUE TO RAPID COOLING AT 700 MB SHOULD ALLOW FOR LAKE
EFFECT BANDS TO PROPAGATE INLAND FAIRLY EFFICIENTLY. HI-RES
ARW/HRRR/NAM/GFS CONSENSUS DOES FAVOR A MULTI-LAKE FETCH
DEVELOPING ONE DOMINANT BAND DOWN THE LENGTH OF LAKE HURON AND
ACROSS LAKE ERIE INTO NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE CONSENSUS OF THE POSITIONS FAVORS
VENANGO COUNTY IN OUR AREA...THUS A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH WAS
ISSUED. THIS IS JUST A WATCH AND LATER MODEL RUNS MAY MEANDER THIS
BAND ONE WAY OR ANOTHER...SO FUTURE FORECASTS SHOULD BE MONITORED.

IN ADDITION TO PURE LAKE EFFECT...FAIRLY EFFICIENT UPSLOPE WILL
LIKELY COME INTO THE RIDGES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS WELL.
SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE OVERCOME BY EFFICIENT
MICROPHYSICS...HOWEVER EVEN WITH EFFICIENT RATIOS...A LACK OF QPF
SEEMS TO FAIL TO ALLOW MOST AREAS TO SURPASS ADVISORY CRITERIA ON
A WIDESPREAD BASIS. THUS...WHILE ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ALMOST
GUARANTEED...SIGNIFICANT SNOW SEEMS RATHER UNLIKELY.

ONE ADDITIONAL EVENTUALITY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SEEMS TO
BE A FAIRLY DEEP MIXING PROFILE. JUST OFF THE SURFACE...ROUGHLY
25-35 KTS OF MOMENTUM LOOKS TO BE PRESENT. THIS COMBINED WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING TOWARD 0F OVERNIGHT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR ALL AREAS TO SEE WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW
-10F...WHICH NECESSITATED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...ADDITIONAL MOMENTUM AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES MAY ALLOW FOR SOME AREAS TO DROP BELOW -25F. BECAUSE
OF ONLY MODEST CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD -25F NUMBERS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...A WIND CHILL WATCH WAS ISSUED. FURTHER SHIFTS CAN REFINE
WHETHER THIS SHOULD BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING OR ADVISORY. EITHER
WAY...VERY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN THE RIDGES WELL
BEYOND THE NEAR TERM. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE WANING LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST AND A SURFACE HIGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES NEAR THE ZERO DEGREE MARK FOR SUNDAY MORNING
LOWS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD IN...WINDS WILL BE
DECREASING ACROSS EASTERN OHIO. TO THE EAST AND NORTH
HOWEVER...SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL MEAN
WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW -10F. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS COULD SEE WIND
CHILLS AT OR BELOW -25F. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE CWA INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A WIND
CHILL WATCH ACROSS GARRETT AND EASTERN TUCKER COUNTIES.

BRIEF RIDGING SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL FINALLY DISRUPT THE MEAN
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL GRADUALLY KICK
INTO GEAR...BUT WITH SUCH A LOW STARTING POINT...HIGHS WILL STAY
WELL BELOW AVERAGE SUNDAY. THE NEXT WEAK WAVE ARRIVES MONDAY MORNING
SPREADING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW BACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN
INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY WARMER AIR SURGING NORTHWARD
WILL KEEP LOWS FROM BOTTOMING OUT MONDAY MORNING.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DIGGING TROUGH WILL DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MONDAY. STRONG SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL DEEPEN
THE LOW FURTHER AS IT ADVANCES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TAP INTO GULF AND ATLANTIC
MOISTURE...SPREADING IT NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION AND EAST. STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BRING PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT LEAST OUR
EASTERN ZONES BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. STILL QUESTIONS
SURROUNDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE RESULTANT WESTWARD
EDGE OF PRECIPITATION...PRECIPITATION TYPE...AND INTENSITY. AS OF THE
00Z RUNS...GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT ACROSS THE MODEL
SUITE...BUT ALL HAVE NUDGED THE SURFACE LOW WEST OF THEIR POSITION
24HRS AGO.

CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR LIKELY SNOW TUESDAY MORNING REACHING WEST
TO THE OHIO RIVER INCLUDING PITTSBURGH. SIGNIFICANT MODEL SPREAD
DOES EXIST FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE VALUES TUESDAY...AND WITH THE
WESTWARD TREND...HAVE BUMPED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES. THIS WOULD
FAVOR AT LEAST SOME MIX OF RAIN/SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON THAT COULD
ULTIMATELY CUT INTO THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY DROP BELOW AVERAGE
THURSDAY...BEFORE REBOUNDING WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION BY THE WEEKEND.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMMENCE BY EVENING
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH A BURST OF SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG IT.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR WILL BE WITH LOW
PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR OHZ039-048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH
     SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR PAZ008.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR WVZ003-004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WVZ001-002-021-509>513.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     WVZ514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 121417
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
917 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SNOW SNOW TO THE AREA LATER TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORNING ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPERATURES AS THERE IS ENOUGH CLOUD
COVER AND WARM ADVECTION FOR VALUES TO RISE QUICKER THAN FORECAST.
DESPITE RETURNS ON THE RADAR...THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING SHOWS DRY
AIR SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

PREVIOUS...
MODEL AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT LOOKS GOOD...WITH IT
APPROACHING THE NORTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA TOWARD 00Z...AND PITTSBURGH
AROUND 03Z OR SO. THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER IS STILL KEYING ON
THIS BOUNDARY...AND HI- RES REFLECTIVITIES ARE RATHER IMPRESSIVE
AS IT SLICES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...AS IT STRAY FARTHER SOUTH AND AWAY FROM A BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE SOURCE..AKA LAKE ERIE...IT GETS FAR LESS IMPRESSIVE.
THUS...ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE AN INCH OR SO WERE GENERALLY RELEGATED
NORTH OF METRO PITTSBURGH.

BEHIND THE FRONT...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RISING INVERSION
HEIGHTS DUE TO RAPID COOLING AT 700 MB SHOULD ALLOW FOR LAKE
EFFECT BANDS TO PROPAGATE INLAND FAIRLY EFFICIENTLY. HI-RES
ARW/HRRR/NAM/GFS CONSENSUS DOES FAVOR A MULTI-LAKE FETCH
DEVELOPING ONE DOMINANT BAND DOWN THE LENGTH OF LAKE HURON AND
ACROSS LAKE ERIE INTO NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE CONSENSUS OF THE POSITIONS FAVORS
VENANGO COUNTY IN OUR AREA...THUS A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH WAS
ISSUED. THIS IS JUST A WATCH AND LATER MODEL RUNS MAY MEANDER THIS
BAND ONE WAY OR ANOTHER...SO FUTURE FORECASTS SHOULD BE MONITORED.

IN ADDITION TO PURE LAKE EFFECT...FAIRLY EFFICIENT UPSLOPE WILL
LIKELY COME INTO THE RIDGES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS WELL.
SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE OVERCOME BY EFFICIENT
MICROPHYSICS...HOWEVER EVEN WITH EFFICIENT RATIOS...A LACK OF QPF
SEEMS TO FAIL TO ALLOW MOST AREAS TO SURPASS ADVISORY CRITERIA ON
A WIDESPREAD BASIS. THUS...WHILE ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ALMOST
GUARANTEED...SIGNIFICANT SNOW SEEMS RATHER UNLIKELY.

ONE ADDITIONAL EVENTUALITY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SEEMS TO
BE A FAIRLY DEEP MIXING PROFILE. JUST OFF THE SURFACE...ROUGHLY
25-35 KTS OF MOMENTUM LOOKS TO BE PRESENT. THIS COMBINED WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING TOWARD 0F OVERNIGHT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR ALL AREAS TO SEE WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW
-10F...WHICH NECESSITATED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...ADDITIONAL MOMENTUM AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES MAY ALLOW FOR SOME AREAS TO DROP BELOW -25F. BECAUSE
OF ONLY MODEST CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD -25F NUMBERS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...A WIND CHILL WATCH WAS ISSUED. FURTHER SHIFTS CAN REFINE
WHETHER THIS SHOULD BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING OR ADVISORY. EITHER
WAY...VERY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN THE RIDGES WELL
BEYOND THE NEAR TERM. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE WANING LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST AND A SURFACE HIGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES NEAR THE ZERO DEGREE MARK FOR SUNDAY MORNING
LOWS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD IN...WINDS WILL BE
DECREASING ACROSS EASTERN OHIO. TO THE EAST AND NORTH
HOWEVER...SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL MEAN
WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW -10F. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS COULD SEE WIND
CHILLS AT OR BELOW -25F. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE CWA INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A WIND
CHILL WATCH ACROSS GARRETT AND EASTERN TUCKER COUNTIES.

BRIEF RIDGING SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL FINALLY DISRUPT THE MEAN
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL GRADUALLY KICK
INTO GEAR...BUT WITH SUCH A LOW STARTING POINT...HIGHS WILL STAY
WELL BELOW AVERAGE SUNDAY. THE NEXT WEAK WAVE ARRIVES MONDAY MORNING
SPREADING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW BACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN
INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY WARMER AIR SURGING NORTHWARD
WILL KEEP LOWS FROM BOTTOMING OUT MONDAY MORNING.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DIGGING TROUGH WILL DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MONDAY. STRONG SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL DEEPEN
THE LOW FURTHER AS IT ADVANCES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TAP INTO GULF AND ATLANTIC
MOISTURE...SPREADING IT NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION AND EAST. STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BRING PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT LEAST OUR
EASTERN ZONES BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. STILL QUESTIONS
SURROUNDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE RESULTANT WESTWARD
EDGE OF PRECIPITATION...PRECIPITATION TYPE...AND INTENSITY. AS OF THE
00Z RUNS...GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT ACROSS THE MODEL
SUITE...BUT ALL HAVE NUDGED THE SURFACE LOW WEST OF THEIR POSITION
24HRS AGO.

CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR LIKELY SNOW TUESDAY MORNING REACHING WEST
TO THE OHIO RIVER INCLUDING PITTSBURGH. SIGNIFICANT MODEL SPREAD
DOES EXIST FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE VALUES TUESDAY...AND WITH THE
WESTWARD TREND...HAVE BUMPED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES. THIS WOULD
FAVOR AT LEAST SOME MIX OF RAIN/SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON THAT COULD
ULTIMATELY CUT INTO THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY DROP BELOW AVERAGE
THURSDAY...BEFORE REBOUNDING WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION BY THE WEEKEND.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMMENCE BY EVENING
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH A BURST OF SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG IT.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR WILL BE WITH LOW
PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR OHZ039-048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH
     SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR PAZ008.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR WVZ003-004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WVZ001-002-021-509>513.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     WVZ514.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 121417
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
917 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SNOW SNOW TO THE AREA LATER TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORNING ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPERATURES AS THERE IS ENOUGH CLOUD
COVER AND WARM ADVECTION FOR VALUES TO RISE QUICKER THAN FORECAST.
DESPITE RETURNS ON THE RADAR...THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING SHOWS DRY
AIR SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

PREVIOUS...
MODEL AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT LOOKS GOOD...WITH IT
APPROACHING THE NORTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA TOWARD 00Z...AND PITTSBURGH
AROUND 03Z OR SO. THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER IS STILL KEYING ON
THIS BOUNDARY...AND HI- RES REFLECTIVITIES ARE RATHER IMPRESSIVE
AS IT SLICES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...AS IT STRAY FARTHER SOUTH AND AWAY FROM A BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE SOURCE..AKA LAKE ERIE...IT GETS FAR LESS IMPRESSIVE.
THUS...ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE AN INCH OR SO WERE GENERALLY RELEGATED
NORTH OF METRO PITTSBURGH.

BEHIND THE FRONT...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RISING INVERSION
HEIGHTS DUE TO RAPID COOLING AT 700 MB SHOULD ALLOW FOR LAKE
EFFECT BANDS TO PROPAGATE INLAND FAIRLY EFFICIENTLY. HI-RES
ARW/HRRR/NAM/GFS CONSENSUS DOES FAVOR A MULTI-LAKE FETCH
DEVELOPING ONE DOMINANT BAND DOWN THE LENGTH OF LAKE HURON AND
ACROSS LAKE ERIE INTO NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE CONSENSUS OF THE POSITIONS FAVORS
VENANGO COUNTY IN OUR AREA...THUS A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH WAS
ISSUED. THIS IS JUST A WATCH AND LATER MODEL RUNS MAY MEANDER THIS
BAND ONE WAY OR ANOTHER...SO FUTURE FORECASTS SHOULD BE MONITORED.

IN ADDITION TO PURE LAKE EFFECT...FAIRLY EFFICIENT UPSLOPE WILL
LIKELY COME INTO THE RIDGES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS WELL.
SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE OVERCOME BY EFFICIENT
MICROPHYSICS...HOWEVER EVEN WITH EFFICIENT RATIOS...A LACK OF QPF
SEEMS TO FAIL TO ALLOW MOST AREAS TO SURPASS ADVISORY CRITERIA ON
A WIDESPREAD BASIS. THUS...WHILE ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ALMOST
GUARANTEED...SIGNIFICANT SNOW SEEMS RATHER UNLIKELY.

ONE ADDITIONAL EVENTUALITY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SEEMS TO
BE A FAIRLY DEEP MIXING PROFILE. JUST OFF THE SURFACE...ROUGHLY
25-35 KTS OF MOMENTUM LOOKS TO BE PRESENT. THIS COMBINED WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING TOWARD 0F OVERNIGHT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR ALL AREAS TO SEE WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW
-10F...WHICH NECESSITATED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...ADDITIONAL MOMENTUM AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES MAY ALLOW FOR SOME AREAS TO DROP BELOW -25F. BECAUSE
OF ONLY MODEST CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD -25F NUMBERS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...A WIND CHILL WATCH WAS ISSUED. FURTHER SHIFTS CAN REFINE
WHETHER THIS SHOULD BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING OR ADVISORY. EITHER
WAY...VERY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN THE RIDGES WELL
BEYOND THE NEAR TERM. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE WANING LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST AND A SURFACE HIGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES NEAR THE ZERO DEGREE MARK FOR SUNDAY MORNING
LOWS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD IN...WINDS WILL BE
DECREASING ACROSS EASTERN OHIO. TO THE EAST AND NORTH
HOWEVER...SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL MEAN
WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW -10F. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS COULD SEE WIND
CHILLS AT OR BELOW -25F. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE CWA INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A WIND
CHILL WATCH ACROSS GARRETT AND EASTERN TUCKER COUNTIES.

BRIEF RIDGING SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL FINALLY DISRUPT THE MEAN
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL GRADUALLY KICK
INTO GEAR...BUT WITH SUCH A LOW STARTING POINT...HIGHS WILL STAY
WELL BELOW AVERAGE SUNDAY. THE NEXT WEAK WAVE ARRIVES MONDAY MORNING
SPREADING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW BACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN
INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY WARMER AIR SURGING NORTHWARD
WILL KEEP LOWS FROM BOTTOMING OUT MONDAY MORNING.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DIGGING TROUGH WILL DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MONDAY. STRONG SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL DEEPEN
THE LOW FURTHER AS IT ADVANCES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TAP INTO GULF AND ATLANTIC
MOISTURE...SPREADING IT NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION AND EAST. STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BRING PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT LEAST OUR
EASTERN ZONES BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. STILL QUESTIONS
SURROUNDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE RESULTANT WESTWARD
EDGE OF PRECIPITATION...PRECIPITATION TYPE...AND INTENSITY. AS OF THE
00Z RUNS...GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT ACROSS THE MODEL
SUITE...BUT ALL HAVE NUDGED THE SURFACE LOW WEST OF THEIR POSITION
24HRS AGO.

CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR LIKELY SNOW TUESDAY MORNING REACHING WEST
TO THE OHIO RIVER INCLUDING PITTSBURGH. SIGNIFICANT MODEL SPREAD
DOES EXIST FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE VALUES TUESDAY...AND WITH THE
WESTWARD TREND...HAVE BUMPED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES. THIS WOULD
FAVOR AT LEAST SOME MIX OF RAIN/SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON THAT COULD
ULTIMATELY CUT INTO THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY DROP BELOW AVERAGE
THURSDAY...BEFORE REBOUNDING WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION BY THE WEEKEND.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMMENCE BY EVENING
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH A BURST OF SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG IT.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR WILL BE WITH LOW
PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR OHZ039-048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH
     SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR PAZ008.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR WVZ003-004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WVZ001-002-021-509>513.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     WVZ514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 121134
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
634 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS MORNING...LIFTING
NORTHEAST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COASTS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR
THIS YEAR. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK HI PRES WAS RIGHT OVR THE FA EARLY THIS MORNG...PROVIDING
DRY/COLD CONDITIONS...WITH INCREASING HI AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
THE HI WILL SLIDE OFFSHR LATER THIS MORNING...WITH ATTENTION
QUICKLY TURNING TO WEAK LO PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THE SE CST...AS
SHRTWV ENERGY DIGS FM THE MIDWEST TWD THE NC/SC CST. TEMPS EARLY
THIS MORNG WERE RANGING FM THE UPR TEENS TO MID 20S ACRS THE
REGION WITH DWPTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LWR TEENS. THE LO PRES
AREA WILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY...AS IT TRACKS NE OFF THE NC AND VA
CSTS LATER THIS AFTN INTO TNGT. HAVE KEPT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES
IN PLACE FOR NE NC AND EXTRM SE VA...AND GENERALLY MAINTAINED SNOW
AMTS FOR THESE AREAS. BUT...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS AND THUS
DECREASED SNOW AMTS FARTHER N AND W INTO THE PIEDMONT...DUE TO
LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE (QPF AMTS) AND DYNAMICS (LIFT) IN THESE
LOCATIONS. BEST DYNAMICS (LIFT/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING) AND DEEPER
MOISTURE (HIGHEST QPF AMTS) REMAIN ACRS EXTRM SE VA AND NE NC FOR
THIS EVENT...AND THUS STILL COULD GET 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW (POSSIBLY
UP TO 4 INCHES) OVR NE NC COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE ALBEMARLE SND
AND ATLC CST...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES (POSSIBLY UP TO 3 INCHES) OVR
SE VA (HAMPTON ROADS AREA) SW INTO INTERIOR NE NC COUNTIES. VERY
LATE THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS EVENG...SOME SLEET MAY MIX IN WITH
THE SNOW NEAR THE NC CST. FOR INTERIOR SE VA...NE ACRS THE MIDDLE
PENINSULA INTO THE LWR MD ERN SHR AND INCLUDING ACCOMACK
COUNTY...SNOW AMTS COULD END UP BETWEEN 0.5 INCH AND 1 INCH.
BUT...NO ADVSY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOCATIONS. PLEASE SEE LATEST
WSW FOR MORE INFO. SNOW COMES TO AN END THIS EVENG/EARLY TNGT...AS
THE SFC LO PUSHES WELL ENE OF THE MID-ATLC CST AND THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY PUSHES THRU THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW/ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR VORTEX DIGS
OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. ~1040MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE MIDWEST...USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDY SAT WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH (STRONGER NEAR THE COAST AND
OVER THE EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS SAT FORECAST TO WARM ONLY INTO THE
MID 20S NW TO LOW 30S SE (-2 STD DEV) UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE TEENS...RESULTING IN A
RAW/COLD/WINDY DAY. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS SAT NIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE INLAND AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...BUT WIND CHILLS STILL FORECAST IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
INLAND TO 0 TO 8 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN SHORE. THE HIGH CENTERS
OVER THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WITH NLY WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. SLIGHTLY
COLDER SUN WITH DECREASED MIXING. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER
20S (-2 STD DEV) UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ATTENTION
TURNING TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. THERE
REMAINS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS...ALTHOUGH
THE 11/12Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING SLOWER...AND WARMER FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. THE 11/12Z GFS CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PCPN MONDAY AS A NRN STREAM TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WOULD MAINLY FALL AS SN OR SN/IP...WITH A TRANSITION TO
RA CLOSER TO THE COAST BY AFTERNOON. SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT WOULD
GENERALLY RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO RA MONDAY NIGHT...ASIDE FROM THE
FAR NW WHERE MIXED PCPN COULD PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH AN
IN-SITU WEDGE IN PLACE. THE LATEST DATA SCOURS OUT THE WEDGE BY
AFTERNOON WITH P-TYPE BECOMING RA EVEN IN THE FAR NW. DRYING OCCURS
MIDWEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE
CLIPPING THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
OF COOLER AIR AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS MONDAY WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW 30S ALONG
AND W OF I-95...WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW 40S. TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY MONDAY EVENING AND BEGIN TO RISE
OVERNIGHT EVENTUALLY WARMING INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S...FOLLOWED BY
LOW 40S NE...TO UPPER 40S SW THURSDAY. MORNING LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CHALLENGING FORECAST LATER TODAY AS THE LATEST HIGH RES DATA KEEPS
THE FA DRY THRU 18Z AND SHOWS MOST OF THE SGNFCNT MSTR WITH THIS
CSTL LOW HUGS THE OUTER BANKS WITH LTL IN THE WAY OF SPRT/QPF FOR
SGNFCNT ACCUMS ACROSS SERN VA AND POINTS TO THE NW. THUS...VFR
CNDTNS WILL BE MAINTAINED THRU 18Z. BROUGHT SN INTO ECG/ORF AND
PHF ARND 21Z WITH A 2-3 HR PRD OF MDT SNOW PSBL BY 00Z WHICH IS
WHERE ANY ACCUMLS WUD OCCUR. KEPT A SNPL MIX AT ECG AS SNDGS DO
SHOW SOME MARINE INFLUENCES OCCURRING BEFORE PCPN ENDS. LTST DATA
INDCTG THAT MOST PCPN REMAINS EAST OF SBY...BUT DID KEEP A 4 HR
PRD OF LGHT SNOW THERE THIS EVE. DATA ALSO SPRTG A PSBL SNOW SHWR
ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS WITH THE ACTUAL ARCTIC FRNT AS IT CROSSES
THE RGN TONITE. MVFR CIGS XPCTD WITH THE SNOW BUT IFR VSBYS ARE
LIKELY IN ANY HEAVIER SNOW BANDS. LOW DP TMPS/DRY AIRMASS OVR THE
PIEDMONT SHUD PREVENT ANYTHING MORE THAN SCT FLURRIES AT RIC.

OUTLOOK...GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP SATURDAY MORNING. VFR AND DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN DEVELOPS MONDAY AS
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW. PCPN BEGINS AS
SNOW UNDER A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUT THIS BREAKS DOWN AND WARMER
AIR WORKS IN AND CHANGES SNOW TO RAIN FROM SE TO NW.

RAIN CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
DRY WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES TODAY AS THE MARINE AREA WINDS WILL GNRLY BE AOB 15KTS
AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRS PROGGED TO MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW WILL NOT BRING ANY WIND RELATED MARINE
HEADLINES...THE ASSCTD PCPN WILL BRING REDUCED VSBYS IN SNOW/SLEET
OF VARYING INTENSITIES LATE THIS AFTRN AND EVE.

AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-40KT OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO
5-8FT WITH 4-5 FT WAVES IN THE BAY. GALE FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR
LATE TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND
SPEEDS HAVE BEEN CAPPED AT HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME.

EXPANDED THE FREEZING SPRAY WINDOW TO INCLUDE SAT...SAT NITE AND SUN
MORN GIVEN FCSTD WND SPEEDS / GUSTS COMBINED WITH AIR TMPS BELOW 30
DEGREES. LIMITED THE FREEZING SPRAY TO THE MORE OPEN CHES BAY AND
CSTL WATER AREAS. PER COORD WITH PHL...HOISTED FREEZING SPRAY ADVSRY
FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL. THIS MEANS LIGHT TO MDT ACCUMULATION OF
ICE CAN BE EXPECTED ON VESSELS.

THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES
ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES / LOW WATER ADVISORIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NCZ012>014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ015>017-
     030>032-102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ092-
     093-095>098-100-523>525.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ633-635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM/TMG
SHORT TERM...SAM/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING..AKQ.




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 121134
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
634 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS MORNING...LIFTING
NORTHEAST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COASTS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR
THIS YEAR. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK HI PRES WAS RIGHT OVR THE FA EARLY THIS MORNG...PROVIDING
DRY/COLD CONDITIONS...WITH INCREASING HI AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
THE HI WILL SLIDE OFFSHR LATER THIS MORNING...WITH ATTENTION
QUICKLY TURNING TO WEAK LO PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THE SE CST...AS
SHRTWV ENERGY DIGS FM THE MIDWEST TWD THE NC/SC CST. TEMPS EARLY
THIS MORNG WERE RANGING FM THE UPR TEENS TO MID 20S ACRS THE
REGION WITH DWPTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LWR TEENS. THE LO PRES
AREA WILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY...AS IT TRACKS NE OFF THE NC AND VA
CSTS LATER THIS AFTN INTO TNGT. HAVE KEPT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES
IN PLACE FOR NE NC AND EXTRM SE VA...AND GENERALLY MAINTAINED SNOW
AMTS FOR THESE AREAS. BUT...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS AND THUS
DECREASED SNOW AMTS FARTHER N AND W INTO THE PIEDMONT...DUE TO
LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE (QPF AMTS) AND DYNAMICS (LIFT) IN THESE
LOCATIONS. BEST DYNAMICS (LIFT/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING) AND DEEPER
MOISTURE (HIGHEST QPF AMTS) REMAIN ACRS EXTRM SE VA AND NE NC FOR
THIS EVENT...AND THUS STILL COULD GET 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW (POSSIBLY
UP TO 4 INCHES) OVR NE NC COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE ALBEMARLE SND
AND ATLC CST...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES (POSSIBLY UP TO 3 INCHES) OVR
SE VA (HAMPTON ROADS AREA) SW INTO INTERIOR NE NC COUNTIES. VERY
LATE THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS EVENG...SOME SLEET MAY MIX IN WITH
THE SNOW NEAR THE NC CST. FOR INTERIOR SE VA...NE ACRS THE MIDDLE
PENINSULA INTO THE LWR MD ERN SHR AND INCLUDING ACCOMACK
COUNTY...SNOW AMTS COULD END UP BETWEEN 0.5 INCH AND 1 INCH.
BUT...NO ADVSY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOCATIONS. PLEASE SEE LATEST
WSW FOR MORE INFO. SNOW COMES TO AN END THIS EVENG/EARLY TNGT...AS
THE SFC LO PUSHES WELL ENE OF THE MID-ATLC CST AND THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY PUSHES THRU THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW/ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR VORTEX DIGS
OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. ~1040MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE MIDWEST...USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDY SAT WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH (STRONGER NEAR THE COAST AND
OVER THE EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS SAT FORECAST TO WARM ONLY INTO THE
MID 20S NW TO LOW 30S SE (-2 STD DEV) UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE TEENS...RESULTING IN A
RAW/COLD/WINDY DAY. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS SAT NIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE INLAND AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...BUT WIND CHILLS STILL FORECAST IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
INLAND TO 0 TO 8 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN SHORE. THE HIGH CENTERS
OVER THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WITH NLY WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. SLIGHTLY
COLDER SUN WITH DECREASED MIXING. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER
20S (-2 STD DEV) UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ATTENTION
TURNING TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. THERE
REMAINS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS...ALTHOUGH
THE 11/12Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING SLOWER...AND WARMER FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. THE 11/12Z GFS CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PCPN MONDAY AS A NRN STREAM TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WOULD MAINLY FALL AS SN OR SN/IP...WITH A TRANSITION TO
RA CLOSER TO THE COAST BY AFTERNOON. SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT WOULD
GENERALLY RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO RA MONDAY NIGHT...ASIDE FROM THE
FAR NW WHERE MIXED PCPN COULD PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH AN
IN-SITU WEDGE IN PLACE. THE LATEST DATA SCOURS OUT THE WEDGE BY
AFTERNOON WITH P-TYPE BECOMING RA EVEN IN THE FAR NW. DRYING OCCURS
MIDWEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE
CLIPPING THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
OF COOLER AIR AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS MONDAY WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW 30S ALONG
AND W OF I-95...WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW 40S. TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY MONDAY EVENING AND BEGIN TO RISE
OVERNIGHT EVENTUALLY WARMING INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S...FOLLOWED BY
LOW 40S NE...TO UPPER 40S SW THURSDAY. MORNING LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CHALLENGING FORECAST LATER TODAY AS THE LATEST HIGH RES DATA KEEPS
THE FA DRY THRU 18Z AND SHOWS MOST OF THE SGNFCNT MSTR WITH THIS
CSTL LOW HUGS THE OUTER BANKS WITH LTL IN THE WAY OF SPRT/QPF FOR
SGNFCNT ACCUMS ACROSS SERN VA AND POINTS TO THE NW. THUS...VFR
CNDTNS WILL BE MAINTAINED THRU 18Z. BROUGHT SN INTO ECG/ORF AND
PHF ARND 21Z WITH A 2-3 HR PRD OF MDT SNOW PSBL BY 00Z WHICH IS
WHERE ANY ACCUMLS WUD OCCUR. KEPT A SNPL MIX AT ECG AS SNDGS DO
SHOW SOME MARINE INFLUENCES OCCURRING BEFORE PCPN ENDS. LTST DATA
INDCTG THAT MOST PCPN REMAINS EAST OF SBY...BUT DID KEEP A 4 HR
PRD OF LGHT SNOW THERE THIS EVE. DATA ALSO SPRTG A PSBL SNOW SHWR
ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS WITH THE ACTUAL ARCTIC FRNT AS IT CROSSES
THE RGN TONITE. MVFR CIGS XPCTD WITH THE SNOW BUT IFR VSBYS ARE
LIKELY IN ANY HEAVIER SNOW BANDS. LOW DP TMPS/DRY AIRMASS OVR THE
PIEDMONT SHUD PREVENT ANYTHING MORE THAN SCT FLURRIES AT RIC.

OUTLOOK...GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP SATURDAY MORNING. VFR AND DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN DEVELOPS MONDAY AS
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW. PCPN BEGINS AS
SNOW UNDER A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUT THIS BREAKS DOWN AND WARMER
AIR WORKS IN AND CHANGES SNOW TO RAIN FROM SE TO NW.

RAIN CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
DRY WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES TODAY AS THE MARINE AREA WINDS WILL GNRLY BE AOB 15KTS
AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRS PROGGED TO MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW WILL NOT BRING ANY WIND RELATED MARINE
HEADLINES...THE ASSCTD PCPN WILL BRING REDUCED VSBYS IN SNOW/SLEET
OF VARYING INTENSITIES LATE THIS AFTRN AND EVE.

AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-40KT OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO
5-8FT WITH 4-5 FT WAVES IN THE BAY. GALE FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR
LATE TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND
SPEEDS HAVE BEEN CAPPED AT HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME.

EXPANDED THE FREEZING SPRAY WINDOW TO INCLUDE SAT...SAT NITE AND SUN
MORN GIVEN FCSTD WND SPEEDS / GUSTS COMBINED WITH AIR TMPS BELOW 30
DEGREES. LIMITED THE FREEZING SPRAY TO THE MORE OPEN CHES BAY AND
CSTL WATER AREAS. PER COORD WITH PHL...HOISTED FREEZING SPRAY ADVSRY
FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL. THIS MEANS LIGHT TO MDT ACCUMULATION OF
ICE CAN BE EXPECTED ON VESSELS.

THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES
ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES / LOW WATER ADVISORIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NCZ012>014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ015>017-
     030>032-102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ092-
     093-095>098-100-523>525.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ633-635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM/TMG
SHORT TERM...SAM/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING..AKQ.



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 121134
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
634 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS MORNING...LIFTING
NORTHEAST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COASTS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR
THIS YEAR. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK HI PRES WAS RIGHT OVR THE FA EARLY THIS MORNG...PROVIDING
DRY/COLD CONDITIONS...WITH INCREASING HI AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
THE HI WILL SLIDE OFFSHR LATER THIS MORNING...WITH ATTENTION
QUICKLY TURNING TO WEAK LO PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THE SE CST...AS
SHRTWV ENERGY DIGS FM THE MIDWEST TWD THE NC/SC CST. TEMPS EARLY
THIS MORNG WERE RANGING FM THE UPR TEENS TO MID 20S ACRS THE
REGION WITH DWPTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LWR TEENS. THE LO PRES
AREA WILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY...AS IT TRACKS NE OFF THE NC AND VA
CSTS LATER THIS AFTN INTO TNGT. HAVE KEPT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES
IN PLACE FOR NE NC AND EXTRM SE VA...AND GENERALLY MAINTAINED SNOW
AMTS FOR THESE AREAS. BUT...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS AND THUS
DECREASED SNOW AMTS FARTHER N AND W INTO THE PIEDMONT...DUE TO
LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE (QPF AMTS) AND DYNAMICS (LIFT) IN THESE
LOCATIONS. BEST DYNAMICS (LIFT/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING) AND DEEPER
MOISTURE (HIGHEST QPF AMTS) REMAIN ACRS EXTRM SE VA AND NE NC FOR
THIS EVENT...AND THUS STILL COULD GET 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW (POSSIBLY
UP TO 4 INCHES) OVR NE NC COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE ALBEMARLE SND
AND ATLC CST...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES (POSSIBLY UP TO 3 INCHES) OVR
SE VA (HAMPTON ROADS AREA) SW INTO INTERIOR NE NC COUNTIES. VERY
LATE THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS EVENG...SOME SLEET MAY MIX IN WITH
THE SNOW NEAR THE NC CST. FOR INTERIOR SE VA...NE ACRS THE MIDDLE
PENINSULA INTO THE LWR MD ERN SHR AND INCLUDING ACCOMACK
COUNTY...SNOW AMTS COULD END UP BETWEEN 0.5 INCH AND 1 INCH.
BUT...NO ADVSY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOCATIONS. PLEASE SEE LATEST
WSW FOR MORE INFO. SNOW COMES TO AN END THIS EVENG/EARLY TNGT...AS
THE SFC LO PUSHES WELL ENE OF THE MID-ATLC CST AND THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY PUSHES THRU THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW/ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR VORTEX DIGS
OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. ~1040MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE MIDWEST...USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDY SAT WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH (STRONGER NEAR THE COAST AND
OVER THE EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS SAT FORECAST TO WARM ONLY INTO THE
MID 20S NW TO LOW 30S SE (-2 STD DEV) UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE TEENS...RESULTING IN A
RAW/COLD/WINDY DAY. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS SAT NIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE INLAND AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...BUT WIND CHILLS STILL FORECAST IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
INLAND TO 0 TO 8 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN SHORE. THE HIGH CENTERS
OVER THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WITH NLY WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. SLIGHTLY
COLDER SUN WITH DECREASED MIXING. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER
20S (-2 STD DEV) UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ATTENTION
TURNING TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. THERE
REMAINS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS...ALTHOUGH
THE 11/12Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING SLOWER...AND WARMER FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. THE 11/12Z GFS CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PCPN MONDAY AS A NRN STREAM TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WOULD MAINLY FALL AS SN OR SN/IP...WITH A TRANSITION TO
RA CLOSER TO THE COAST BY AFTERNOON. SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT WOULD
GENERALLY RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO RA MONDAY NIGHT...ASIDE FROM THE
FAR NW WHERE MIXED PCPN COULD PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH AN
IN-SITU WEDGE IN PLACE. THE LATEST DATA SCOURS OUT THE WEDGE BY
AFTERNOON WITH P-TYPE BECOMING RA EVEN IN THE FAR NW. DRYING OCCURS
MIDWEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE
CLIPPING THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
OF COOLER AIR AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS MONDAY WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW 30S ALONG
AND W OF I-95...WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW 40S. TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY MONDAY EVENING AND BEGIN TO RISE
OVERNIGHT EVENTUALLY WARMING INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S...FOLLOWED BY
LOW 40S NE...TO UPPER 40S SW THURSDAY. MORNING LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CHALLENGING FORECAST LATER TODAY AS THE LATEST HIGH RES DATA KEEPS
THE FA DRY THRU 18Z AND SHOWS MOST OF THE SGNFCNT MSTR WITH THIS
CSTL LOW HUGS THE OUTER BANKS WITH LTL IN THE WAY OF SPRT/QPF FOR
SGNFCNT ACCUMS ACROSS SERN VA AND POINTS TO THE NW. THUS...VFR
CNDTNS WILL BE MAINTAINED THRU 18Z. BROUGHT SN INTO ECG/ORF AND
PHF ARND 21Z WITH A 2-3 HR PRD OF MDT SNOW PSBL BY 00Z WHICH IS
WHERE ANY ACCUMLS WUD OCCUR. KEPT A SNPL MIX AT ECG AS SNDGS DO
SHOW SOME MARINE INFLUENCES OCCURRING BEFORE PCPN ENDS. LTST DATA
INDCTG THAT MOST PCPN REMAINS EAST OF SBY...BUT DID KEEP A 4 HR
PRD OF LGHT SNOW THERE THIS EVE. DATA ALSO SPRTG A PSBL SNOW SHWR
ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS WITH THE ACTUAL ARCTIC FRNT AS IT CROSSES
THE RGN TONITE. MVFR CIGS XPCTD WITH THE SNOW BUT IFR VSBYS ARE
LIKELY IN ANY HEAVIER SNOW BANDS. LOW DP TMPS/DRY AIRMASS OVR THE
PIEDMONT SHUD PREVENT ANYTHING MORE THAN SCT FLURRIES AT RIC.

OUTLOOK...GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP SATURDAY MORNING. VFR AND DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN DEVELOPS MONDAY AS
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW. PCPN BEGINS AS
SNOW UNDER A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUT THIS BREAKS DOWN AND WARMER
AIR WORKS IN AND CHANGES SNOW TO RAIN FROM SE TO NW.

RAIN CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
DRY WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES TODAY AS THE MARINE AREA WINDS WILL GNRLY BE AOB 15KTS
AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRS PROGGED TO MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW WILL NOT BRING ANY WIND RELATED MARINE
HEADLINES...THE ASSCTD PCPN WILL BRING REDUCED VSBYS IN SNOW/SLEET
OF VARYING INTENSITIES LATE THIS AFTRN AND EVE.

AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-40KT OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO
5-8FT WITH 4-5 FT WAVES IN THE BAY. GALE FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR
LATE TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND
SPEEDS HAVE BEEN CAPPED AT HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME.

EXPANDED THE FREEZING SPRAY WINDOW TO INCLUDE SAT...SAT NITE AND SUN
MORN GIVEN FCSTD WND SPEEDS / GUSTS COMBINED WITH AIR TMPS BELOW 30
DEGREES. LIMITED THE FREEZING SPRAY TO THE MORE OPEN CHES BAY AND
CSTL WATER AREAS. PER COORD WITH PHL...HOISTED FREEZING SPRAY ADVSRY
FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL. THIS MEANS LIGHT TO MDT ACCUMULATION OF
ICE CAN BE EXPECTED ON VESSELS.

THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES
ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES / LOW WATER ADVISORIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NCZ012>014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ015>017-
     030>032-102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ092-
     093-095>098-100-523>525.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ633-635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM/TMG
SHORT TERM...SAM/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING..AKQ.




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 121050
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
550 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SNOW SNOW TO THE AREA LATER TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
OVERNIGHT DECOUPLING KEEPING WARM ADVECTION TO OUR WEST FROM
GENERALLY IMPACTING SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN RELEGATED TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH
MEANS A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY TODAY. THAT SAID...280-290K
LAYER ASCENT WILL INCREASE SLOWLY GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
GFS AND NAM CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS IN THE LAYER DROPPING
BELOW 10 MB SHORTLY AROUND 18Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. AS
SUCH...WHILE A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY KEEP MUCH MORE THAN
VERY LIGHT SNOW FROM FALLING OUT...GENERALLY CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT
SNOW WERE MAINTAINED EXCLUSIVELY IN THE AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE WARM ADVECTION WITH GOOD HI-RES AND
NAM/GFS MODEL AGREEMENT ON TIMING IT INTO THE NORTHERN REACHES OF
THE CWA TOWARD 00Z...DOWN TOWARD PITTSBURGH AROUND 03Z OR SO. THE
SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER IS STILL KEYING ON THIS BOUNDARY...AND HI-
RES REFLECTIVITIES ARE RATHER IMPRESSIVE AS IT SLICES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...AS IT STRAY FARTHER SOUTH
AND AWAY FROM A BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SOURCE..AKA LAKE ERIE...IT
GETS FAR LESS IMPRESSIVE. THUS...ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE AN INCH OR SO
WERE GENERALLY RELEGATED NORTH OF METRO PITTSBURGH.

BEHIND THE FRONT...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RISING INVERSION
HEIGHTS DUE TO RAPID COOLING AT 700 MB SHOULD ALLOW FOR LAKE
EFFECT BANDS TO PROPAGATE INLAND FAIRLY EFFICIENTLY. HI-RES
ARW/HRRR/NAM/GFS CONSENSUS DOES FAVOR A MULTI-LAKE FETCH
DEVELOPING ONE DOMINANT BAND DOWN THE LENGTH OF LAKE HURON AND
ACROSS LAKE ERIE INTO NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE CONSENSUS OF THE POSITIONS FAVORS
VENANGO COUNTY IN OUR AREA...THUS A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH WAS
ISSUED. THIS IS JUST A WATCH AND LATER MODEL RUNS MAY MEANDER THIS
BAND ONE WAY OR ANOTHER...SO FUTURE FORECASTS SHOULD BE MONITORED.

IN ADDITION TO PURE LAKE EFFECT...FAIRLY EFFICIENT UPSLOPE WILL
LIKELY COME INTO THE RIDGES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS WELL.
SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE OVERCOME BY EFFICIENT
MICROPHYSICS...HOWEVER EVEN WITH EFFICIENT RATIOS...A LACK OF QPF
SEEMS TO FAIL TO ALLOW MOST AREAS TO SURPASS ADVISORY CRITERIA ON
A WIDESPREAD BASIS. THUS...WHILE ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ALMOST
GUARANTEED...SIGNIFICANT SNOW SEEMS RATHER UNLIKELY.

ONE ADDITIONAL EVENTUALITY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SEEMS TO
BE A FAIRLY DEEP MIXING PROFILE. JUST OFF THE SURFACE...ROUGHLY
25-35 KTS OF MOMENTUM LOOKS TO BE PRESENT. THIS COMBINED WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING TOWARD 0F OVERNIGHT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR ALL AREAS TO SEE WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW
-10F...WHICH NECESSITATED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...ADDITIONAL MOMENTUM AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES MAY ALLOW FOR SOME AREAS TO DROP BELOW -25F. BECAUSE
OF ONLY MODEST CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD -25F NUMBERS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...A WIND CHILL WATCH WAS ISSUED. FURTHER SHIFTS CAN REFINE
WHETHER THIS SHOULD BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING OR ADVISORY. EITHER
WAY...VERY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN THE RIDGES WELL
BEYOND THE NEAR TERM. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE WANING LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST AND A SURFACE HIGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES NEAR THE ZERO DEGREE MARK FOR SUNDAY MORNING
LOWS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD IN...WINDS WILL BE
DECREASING ACROSS EASTERN OHIO. TO THE EAST AND NORTH
HOWEVER...SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL MEAN
WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW -10F. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS COULD SEE WIND
CHILLS AT OR BELOW -25F. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE CWA INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A WIND
CHILL WATCH ACROSS GARRETT AND EASTERN TUCKER COUNTIES.

BRIEF RIDGING SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL FINALLY DISRUPT THE MEAN
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL GRADUALLY KICK
INTO GEAR...BUT WITH SUCH A LOW STARTING POINT...HIGHS WILL STAY
WELL BELOW AVERAGE SUNDAY. THE NEXT WEAK WAVE ARRIVES MONDAY MORNING
SPREADING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW BACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN
INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY WARMER AIR SURGING NORTHWARD
WILL KEEP LOWS FROM BOTTOMING OUT MONDAY MORNING.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DIGGING TROUGH WILL DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MONDAY. STRONG SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL DEEPEN
THE LOW FURTHER AS IT ADVANCES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TAP INTO GULF AND ATLANTIC
MOISTURE...SPREADING IT NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION AND EAST. STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BRING PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT LEAST OUR
EASTERN ZONES BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. STILL QUESTIONS
SURROUNDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE RESULTANT WESTWARD
EDGE OF PRECIPITATION...PRECIPITATION TYPE...AND INTENSITY. AS OF THE
00Z RUNS...GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT ACROSS THE MODEL
SUITE...BUT ALL HAVE NUDGED THE SURFACE LOW WEST OF THEIR POSITION
24HRS AGO.

CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR LIKELY SNOW TUESDAY MORNING REACHING WEST
TO THE OHIO RIVER INCLUDING PITTSBURGH. SIGNIFICANT MODEL SPREAD
DOES EXIST FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE VALUES TUESDAY...AND WITH THE
WESTWARD TREND...HAVE BUMPED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES. THIS WOULD
FAVOR AT LEAST SOME MIX OF RAIN/SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON THAT COULD
ULTIMATELY CUT INTO THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY DROP BELOW AVERAGE
THURSDAY...BEFORE REBOUNDING WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION BY THE WEEKEND.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMMENCE BY EVENING
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH A BURST OF SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG IT.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR WILL BE WITH LOW
PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR OHZ039-048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PAZ008.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR WVZ003-004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WVZ001-002-021-509>513.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     WVZ514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 121050
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
550 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SNOW SNOW TO THE AREA LATER TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
OVERNIGHT DECOUPLING KEEPING WARM ADVECTION TO OUR WEST FROM
GENERALLY IMPACTING SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN RELEGATED TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH
MEANS A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY TODAY. THAT SAID...280-290K
LAYER ASCENT WILL INCREASE SLOWLY GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
GFS AND NAM CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS IN THE LAYER DROPPING
BELOW 10 MB SHORTLY AROUND 18Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. AS
SUCH...WHILE A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY KEEP MUCH MORE THAN
VERY LIGHT SNOW FROM FALLING OUT...GENERALLY CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT
SNOW WERE MAINTAINED EXCLUSIVELY IN THE AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE WARM ADVECTION WITH GOOD HI-RES AND
NAM/GFS MODEL AGREEMENT ON TIMING IT INTO THE NORTHERN REACHES OF
THE CWA TOWARD 00Z...DOWN TOWARD PITTSBURGH AROUND 03Z OR SO. THE
SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER IS STILL KEYING ON THIS BOUNDARY...AND HI-
RES REFLECTIVITIES ARE RATHER IMPRESSIVE AS IT SLICES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...AS IT STRAY FARTHER SOUTH
AND AWAY FROM A BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SOURCE..AKA LAKE ERIE...IT
GETS FAR LESS IMPRESSIVE. THUS...ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE AN INCH OR SO
WERE GENERALLY RELEGATED NORTH OF METRO PITTSBURGH.

BEHIND THE FRONT...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RISING INVERSION
HEIGHTS DUE TO RAPID COOLING AT 700 MB SHOULD ALLOW FOR LAKE
EFFECT BANDS TO PROPAGATE INLAND FAIRLY EFFICIENTLY. HI-RES
ARW/HRRR/NAM/GFS CONSENSUS DOES FAVOR A MULTI-LAKE FETCH
DEVELOPING ONE DOMINANT BAND DOWN THE LENGTH OF LAKE HURON AND
ACROSS LAKE ERIE INTO NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE CONSENSUS OF THE POSITIONS FAVORS
VENANGO COUNTY IN OUR AREA...THUS A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH WAS
ISSUED. THIS IS JUST A WATCH AND LATER MODEL RUNS MAY MEANDER THIS
BAND ONE WAY OR ANOTHER...SO FUTURE FORECASTS SHOULD BE MONITORED.

IN ADDITION TO PURE LAKE EFFECT...FAIRLY EFFICIENT UPSLOPE WILL
LIKELY COME INTO THE RIDGES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS WELL.
SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE OVERCOME BY EFFICIENT
MICROPHYSICS...HOWEVER EVEN WITH EFFICIENT RATIOS...A LACK OF QPF
SEEMS TO FAIL TO ALLOW MOST AREAS TO SURPASS ADVISORY CRITERIA ON
A WIDESPREAD BASIS. THUS...WHILE ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ALMOST
GUARANTEED...SIGNIFICANT SNOW SEEMS RATHER UNLIKELY.

ONE ADDITIONAL EVENTUALITY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SEEMS TO
BE A FAIRLY DEEP MIXING PROFILE. JUST OFF THE SURFACE...ROUGHLY
25-35 KTS OF MOMENTUM LOOKS TO BE PRESENT. THIS COMBINED WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING TOWARD 0F OVERNIGHT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR ALL AREAS TO SEE WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW
-10F...WHICH NECESSITATED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...ADDITIONAL MOMENTUM AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES MAY ALLOW FOR SOME AREAS TO DROP BELOW -25F. BECAUSE
OF ONLY MODEST CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD -25F NUMBERS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...A WIND CHILL WATCH WAS ISSUED. FURTHER SHIFTS CAN REFINE
WHETHER THIS SHOULD BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING OR ADVISORY. EITHER
WAY...VERY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN THE RIDGES WELL
BEYOND THE NEAR TERM. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE WANING LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST AND A SURFACE HIGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES NEAR THE ZERO DEGREE MARK FOR SUNDAY MORNING
LOWS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD IN...WINDS WILL BE
DECREASING ACROSS EASTERN OHIO. TO THE EAST AND NORTH
HOWEVER...SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL MEAN
WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW -10F. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS COULD SEE WIND
CHILLS AT OR BELOW -25F. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE CWA INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A WIND
CHILL WATCH ACROSS GARRETT AND EASTERN TUCKER COUNTIES.

BRIEF RIDGING SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL FINALLY DISRUPT THE MEAN
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL GRADUALLY KICK
INTO GEAR...BUT WITH SUCH A LOW STARTING POINT...HIGHS WILL STAY
WELL BELOW AVERAGE SUNDAY. THE NEXT WEAK WAVE ARRIVES MONDAY MORNING
SPREADING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW BACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN
INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY WARMER AIR SURGING NORTHWARD
WILL KEEP LOWS FROM BOTTOMING OUT MONDAY MORNING.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DIGGING TROUGH WILL DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MONDAY. STRONG SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL DEEPEN
THE LOW FURTHER AS IT ADVANCES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TAP INTO GULF AND ATLANTIC
MOISTURE...SPREADING IT NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION AND EAST. STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BRING PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT LEAST OUR
EASTERN ZONES BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. STILL QUESTIONS
SURROUNDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE RESULTANT WESTWARD
EDGE OF PRECIPITATION...PRECIPITATION TYPE...AND INTENSITY. AS OF THE
00Z RUNS...GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT ACROSS THE MODEL
SUITE...BUT ALL HAVE NUDGED THE SURFACE LOW WEST OF THEIR POSITION
24HRS AGO.

CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR LIKELY SNOW TUESDAY MORNING REACHING WEST
TO THE OHIO RIVER INCLUDING PITTSBURGH. SIGNIFICANT MODEL SPREAD
DOES EXIST FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE VALUES TUESDAY...AND WITH THE
WESTWARD TREND...HAVE BUMPED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES. THIS WOULD
FAVOR AT LEAST SOME MIX OF RAIN/SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON THAT COULD
ULTIMATELY CUT INTO THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY DROP BELOW AVERAGE
THURSDAY...BEFORE REBOUNDING WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION BY THE WEEKEND.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMMENCE BY EVENING
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH A BURST OF SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG IT.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR WILL BE WITH LOW
PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR OHZ039-048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PAZ008.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR WVZ003-004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WVZ001-002-021-509>513.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     WVZ514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 121050
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
550 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SNOW SNOW TO THE AREA LATER TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
OVERNIGHT DECOUPLING KEEPING WARM ADVECTION TO OUR WEST FROM
GENERALLY IMPACTING SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN RELEGATED TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH
MEANS A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY TODAY. THAT SAID...280-290K
LAYER ASCENT WILL INCREASE SLOWLY GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
GFS AND NAM CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS IN THE LAYER DROPPING
BELOW 10 MB SHORTLY AROUND 18Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. AS
SUCH...WHILE A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY KEEP MUCH MORE THAN
VERY LIGHT SNOW FROM FALLING OUT...GENERALLY CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT
SNOW WERE MAINTAINED EXCLUSIVELY IN THE AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE WARM ADVECTION WITH GOOD HI-RES AND
NAM/GFS MODEL AGREEMENT ON TIMING IT INTO THE NORTHERN REACHES OF
THE CWA TOWARD 00Z...DOWN TOWARD PITTSBURGH AROUND 03Z OR SO. THE
SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER IS STILL KEYING ON THIS BOUNDARY...AND HI-
RES REFLECTIVITIES ARE RATHER IMPRESSIVE AS IT SLICES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...AS IT STRAY FARTHER SOUTH
AND AWAY FROM A BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SOURCE..AKA LAKE ERIE...IT
GETS FAR LESS IMPRESSIVE. THUS...ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE AN INCH OR SO
WERE GENERALLY RELEGATED NORTH OF METRO PITTSBURGH.

BEHIND THE FRONT...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RISING INVERSION
HEIGHTS DUE TO RAPID COOLING AT 700 MB SHOULD ALLOW FOR LAKE
EFFECT BANDS TO PROPAGATE INLAND FAIRLY EFFICIENTLY. HI-RES
ARW/HRRR/NAM/GFS CONSENSUS DOES FAVOR A MULTI-LAKE FETCH
DEVELOPING ONE DOMINANT BAND DOWN THE LENGTH OF LAKE HURON AND
ACROSS LAKE ERIE INTO NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE CONSENSUS OF THE POSITIONS FAVORS
VENANGO COUNTY IN OUR AREA...THUS A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH WAS
ISSUED. THIS IS JUST A WATCH AND LATER MODEL RUNS MAY MEANDER THIS
BAND ONE WAY OR ANOTHER...SO FUTURE FORECASTS SHOULD BE MONITORED.

IN ADDITION TO PURE LAKE EFFECT...FAIRLY EFFICIENT UPSLOPE WILL
LIKELY COME INTO THE RIDGES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS WELL.
SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE OVERCOME BY EFFICIENT
MICROPHYSICS...HOWEVER EVEN WITH EFFICIENT RATIOS...A LACK OF QPF
SEEMS TO FAIL TO ALLOW MOST AREAS TO SURPASS ADVISORY CRITERIA ON
A WIDESPREAD BASIS. THUS...WHILE ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ALMOST
GUARANTEED...SIGNIFICANT SNOW SEEMS RATHER UNLIKELY.

ONE ADDITIONAL EVENTUALITY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SEEMS TO
BE A FAIRLY DEEP MIXING PROFILE. JUST OFF THE SURFACE...ROUGHLY
25-35 KTS OF MOMENTUM LOOKS TO BE PRESENT. THIS COMBINED WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING TOWARD 0F OVERNIGHT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR ALL AREAS TO SEE WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW
-10F...WHICH NECESSITATED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...ADDITIONAL MOMENTUM AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES MAY ALLOW FOR SOME AREAS TO DROP BELOW -25F. BECAUSE
OF ONLY MODEST CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD -25F NUMBERS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...A WIND CHILL WATCH WAS ISSUED. FURTHER SHIFTS CAN REFINE
WHETHER THIS SHOULD BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING OR ADVISORY. EITHER
WAY...VERY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN THE RIDGES WELL
BEYOND THE NEAR TERM. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE WANING LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST AND A SURFACE HIGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES NEAR THE ZERO DEGREE MARK FOR SUNDAY MORNING
LOWS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD IN...WINDS WILL BE
DECREASING ACROSS EASTERN OHIO. TO THE EAST AND NORTH
HOWEVER...SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL MEAN
WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW -10F. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS COULD SEE WIND
CHILLS AT OR BELOW -25F. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE CWA INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A WIND
CHILL WATCH ACROSS GARRETT AND EASTERN TUCKER COUNTIES.

BRIEF RIDGING SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL FINALLY DISRUPT THE MEAN
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL GRADUALLY KICK
INTO GEAR...BUT WITH SUCH A LOW STARTING POINT...HIGHS WILL STAY
WELL BELOW AVERAGE SUNDAY. THE NEXT WEAK WAVE ARRIVES MONDAY MORNING
SPREADING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW BACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN
INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY WARMER AIR SURGING NORTHWARD
WILL KEEP LOWS FROM BOTTOMING OUT MONDAY MORNING.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DIGGING TROUGH WILL DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MONDAY. STRONG SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL DEEPEN
THE LOW FURTHER AS IT ADVANCES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TAP INTO GULF AND ATLANTIC
MOISTURE...SPREADING IT NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION AND EAST. STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BRING PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT LEAST OUR
EASTERN ZONES BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. STILL QUESTIONS
SURROUNDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE RESULTANT WESTWARD
EDGE OF PRECIPITATION...PRECIPITATION TYPE...AND INTENSITY. AS OF THE
00Z RUNS...GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT ACROSS THE MODEL
SUITE...BUT ALL HAVE NUDGED THE SURFACE LOW WEST OF THEIR POSITION
24HRS AGO.

CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR LIKELY SNOW TUESDAY MORNING REACHING WEST
TO THE OHIO RIVER INCLUDING PITTSBURGH. SIGNIFICANT MODEL SPREAD
DOES EXIST FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE VALUES TUESDAY...AND WITH THE
WESTWARD TREND...HAVE BUMPED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES. THIS WOULD
FAVOR AT LEAST SOME MIX OF RAIN/SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON THAT COULD
ULTIMATELY CUT INTO THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY DROP BELOW AVERAGE
THURSDAY...BEFORE REBOUNDING WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION BY THE WEEKEND.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMMENCE BY EVENING
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH A BURST OF SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG IT.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR WILL BE WITH LOW
PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR OHZ039-048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PAZ008.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR WVZ003-004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WVZ001-002-021-509>513.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     WVZ514.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 120926
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
426 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SNOW SNOW TO THE AREA LATER TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
OVERNIGHT DECOUPLING KEEPING WARM ADVECTION TO OUR WEST FROM
GENERALLY IMPACTING SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN RELEGATED TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH
MEANS A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY TODAY. THAT SAID...280-290K
LAYER ASCENT WILL INCREASE SLOWLY GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
GFS AND NAM CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS IN THE LAYER DROPPING
BELOW 10 MB SHORTLY AROUND 18Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. AS
SUCH...WHILE A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY KEEP MUCH MORE THAN
VERY LIGHT SNOW FROM FALLING OUT...GENERALLY CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT
SNOW WERE MAINTAINED IN THE AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE WARM ADVECTION WITH GOOD HI-RES AND
NAM/GFS MODEL AGREEMENT ON TIMING IT INTO THE NORTHERN REACHES OF
THE CWA TOWARD 00Z...DOWN TOWARD PITTSBURGH AROUND 03Z OR SO. THE
SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER IS STILL KEYING ON THIS BOUNDARY...AND HI-
RES REFLECTIVITIES ARE RATHER IMPRESSIVE AS IT SLICES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...AS IT STRAY FARTHER SOUTH
AND AWAY FROM A BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SOURCE..AKA LAKE ERIE...IT
GETS FAR LESS IMPRESSIVE. THUS...ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE AN INCH OR SO
WERE GENERALLY RELEGATED NORTH OF METRO PITTSBURGH.

BEHIND THE FRONT...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RISING INVERSION
HEIGHTS DUE TO RAPID COOLING AT 700 MB SHOULD ALLOW FOR LAKE
EFFECT BANDS TO PROPAGATE INLAND FAIRLY EFFICIENTLY. HI-RES
ARW/HRRR/NAM/GFS CONSENSUS DOES FAVOR A MULTI-LAKE FETCH
DEVELOPING ONE DOMINANT BAND DOWN THE LENGTH OF LAKE HURON AND
ACROSS LAKE ERIE INTO NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE CONSENSUS OF THE POSITIONS FAVORS
VENANGO COUNTY IN OUR AREA...THUS A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH WAS
ISSUED. THIS IS JUST A WATCH AND LATER MODEL RUNS MAY MEANDER THIS
BAND ONE WAY OR ANOTHER...SO FUTURE FORECASTS SHOULD BE MONITORED.

IN ADDITION TO PURE LAKE EFFECT...FAIRLY EFFICIENT UPSLOPE WILL
LIKELY COME INTO THE RIDGES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS WELL.
SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE OVERCOME BY EFFICIENT
MICROPHYSICS...HOWEVER EVEN WITH EFFICIENT RATIOS...A LACK OF QPF
SEEMS TO FAIL TO ALLOW MOST AREAS TO SURPASS ADVISORY CRITERIA ON
A WIDESPREAD BASIS. THUS...WHILE ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ALMOST
GUARANTEED...SIGNIFICANT SNOW SEEMS RATHER UNLIKELY.

ONE ADDITIONAL EVENTUALITY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SEEMS TO
BE A FAIRLY DEEP MIXING PROFILE. JUST OFF THE SURFACE...ROUGHLY
25-35 KTS OF MOMENTUM LOOKS TO BE PRESENT. THIS COMBINED WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING TOWARD 0F OVERNIGHT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR ALL AREAS TO SEE WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW
-10F...WHICH NECESSITATED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...ADDITIONAL MOMENTUM AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES MAY ALLOW FOR SOME AREAS TO DROP BELOW -25F. BECAUSE
OF ONLY MODEST CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD -25F NUMBERS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...A WIND CHILL WATCH WAS ISSUED. FURTHER SHIFTS CAN REFINE
WHETHER THIS SHOULD BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING OR ADVISORY. EITHER
WAY...VERY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN THE RIDGES WELL
BEYOND THE NEAR TERM. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE WANING LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST AND A SURFACE HIGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES NEAR THE ZERO DEGREE MARK FOR SUNDAY MORNING
LOWS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD IN...WINDS WILL BE
DECREASING ACROSS EASTERN OHIO. TO THE EAST AND NORTH
HOWEVER...SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL MEAN
WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW -10F. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS COULD SEE WIND
CHILLS AT OR BELOW -25F. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE CWA INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A WIND
CHILL WATCH ACROSS GARRETT AND EASTERN TUCKER COUNTIES.

BRIEF RIDGING SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL FINALLY DISRUPT THE MEAN
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL GRADUALLY KICK
INTO GEAR...BUT WITH SUCH A LOW STARTING POINT...HIGHS WILL STAY
WELL BELOW AVERAGE SUNDAY. THE NEXT WEAK WAVE ARRIVES MONDAY MORNING
SPREADING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW BACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN
INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY WARMER AIR SURGING NORTHWARD
WILL KEEP LOWS FROM BOTTOMING OUT MONDAY MORNING.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DIGGING TROUGH WILL DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MONDAY. STRONG SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL DEEPEN
THE LOW FURTHER AS IT ADVANCES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TAP INTO GULF AND ATLANTIC
MOISTURE...SPREADING IT NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION AND EAST. STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BRING PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT LEAST OUR
EASTERN ZONES BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. STILL QUESTIONS
SURROUNDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE RESULTANT WESTWARD
EDGE OF PRECIPITATION...PRECIPITATION TYPE...AND INTENSITY. AS OF THE
00Z RUNS...GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT ACROSS THE MODEL
SUITE...BUT ALL HAVE NUDGED THE SURFACE LOW WEST OF THEIR POSITION
24HRS AGO.

CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR LIKELY SNOW TUESDAY MORNING REACHING WEST
TO THE OHIO RIVER INCLUDING PITTSBURGH. SIGNIFICANT MODEL SPREAD
DOES EXIST FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE VALUES TUESDAY...AND WITH THE
WESTWARD TREND...HAVE BUMPED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES. THIS WOULD
FAVOR AT LEAST SOME MIX OF RAIN/SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON THAT COULD
ULTIMATELY CUT INTO THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY DROP BELOW AVERAGE
THURSDAY...BEFORE REBOUNDING WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION BY THE WEEKEND.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
COMMENCE BY FRIDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
WITH A BURST OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG IT.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR WILL BE WITH LOW
PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR OHZ039-048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PAZ008.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR WVZ003-004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WVZ001-002-021-509>513.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     WVZ514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 120926
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
426 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SNOW SNOW TO THE AREA LATER TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
OVERNIGHT DECOUPLING KEEPING WARM ADVECTION TO OUR WEST FROM
GENERALLY IMPACTING SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN RELEGATED TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH
MEANS A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY TODAY. THAT SAID...280-290K
LAYER ASCENT WILL INCREASE SLOWLY GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
GFS AND NAM CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS IN THE LAYER DROPPING
BELOW 10 MB SHORTLY AROUND 18Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. AS
SUCH...WHILE A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY KEEP MUCH MORE THAN
VERY LIGHT SNOW FROM FALLING OUT...GENERALLY CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT
SNOW WERE MAINTAINED IN THE AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE WARM ADVECTION WITH GOOD HI-RES AND
NAM/GFS MODEL AGREEMENT ON TIMING IT INTO THE NORTHERN REACHES OF
THE CWA TOWARD 00Z...DOWN TOWARD PITTSBURGH AROUND 03Z OR SO. THE
SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER IS STILL KEYING ON THIS BOUNDARY...AND HI-
RES REFLECTIVITIES ARE RATHER IMPRESSIVE AS IT SLICES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...AS IT STRAY FARTHER SOUTH
AND AWAY FROM A BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SOURCE..AKA LAKE ERIE...IT
GETS FAR LESS IMPRESSIVE. THUS...ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE AN INCH OR SO
WERE GENERALLY RELEGATED NORTH OF METRO PITTSBURGH.

BEHIND THE FRONT...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RISING INVERSION
HEIGHTS DUE TO RAPID COOLING AT 700 MB SHOULD ALLOW FOR LAKE
EFFECT BANDS TO PROPAGATE INLAND FAIRLY EFFICIENTLY. HI-RES
ARW/HRRR/NAM/GFS CONSENSUS DOES FAVOR A MULTI-LAKE FETCH
DEVELOPING ONE DOMINANT BAND DOWN THE LENGTH OF LAKE HURON AND
ACROSS LAKE ERIE INTO NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE CONSENSUS OF THE POSITIONS FAVORS
VENANGO COUNTY IN OUR AREA...THUS A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH WAS
ISSUED. THIS IS JUST A WATCH AND LATER MODEL RUNS MAY MEANDER THIS
BAND ONE WAY OR ANOTHER...SO FUTURE FORECASTS SHOULD BE MONITORED.

IN ADDITION TO PURE LAKE EFFECT...FAIRLY EFFICIENT UPSLOPE WILL
LIKELY COME INTO THE RIDGES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS WELL.
SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE OVERCOME BY EFFICIENT
MICROPHYSICS...HOWEVER EVEN WITH EFFICIENT RATIOS...A LACK OF QPF
SEEMS TO FAIL TO ALLOW MOST AREAS TO SURPASS ADVISORY CRITERIA ON
A WIDESPREAD BASIS. THUS...WHILE ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ALMOST
GUARANTEED...SIGNIFICANT SNOW SEEMS RATHER UNLIKELY.

ONE ADDITIONAL EVENTUALITY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SEEMS TO
BE A FAIRLY DEEP MIXING PROFILE. JUST OFF THE SURFACE...ROUGHLY
25-35 KTS OF MOMENTUM LOOKS TO BE PRESENT. THIS COMBINED WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING TOWARD 0F OVERNIGHT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR ALL AREAS TO SEE WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW
-10F...WHICH NECESSITATED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...ADDITIONAL MOMENTUM AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES MAY ALLOW FOR SOME AREAS TO DROP BELOW -25F. BECAUSE
OF ONLY MODEST CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD -25F NUMBERS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...A WIND CHILL WATCH WAS ISSUED. FURTHER SHIFTS CAN REFINE
WHETHER THIS SHOULD BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING OR ADVISORY. EITHER
WAY...VERY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN THE RIDGES WELL
BEYOND THE NEAR TERM. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE WANING LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST AND A SURFACE HIGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES NEAR THE ZERO DEGREE MARK FOR SUNDAY MORNING
LOWS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD IN...WINDS WILL BE
DECREASING ACROSS EASTERN OHIO. TO THE EAST AND NORTH
HOWEVER...SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL MEAN
WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW -10F. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS COULD SEE WIND
CHILLS AT OR BELOW -25F. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE CWA INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A WIND
CHILL WATCH ACROSS GARRETT AND EASTERN TUCKER COUNTIES.

BRIEF RIDGING SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL FINALLY DISRUPT THE MEAN
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL GRADUALLY KICK
INTO GEAR...BUT WITH SUCH A LOW STARTING POINT...HIGHS WILL STAY
WELL BELOW AVERAGE SUNDAY. THE NEXT WEAK WAVE ARRIVES MONDAY MORNING
SPREADING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW BACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN
INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY WARMER AIR SURGING NORTHWARD
WILL KEEP LOWS FROM BOTTOMING OUT MONDAY MORNING.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DIGGING TROUGH WILL DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MONDAY. STRONG SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL DEEPEN
THE LOW FURTHER AS IT ADVANCES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TAP INTO GULF AND ATLANTIC
MOISTURE...SPREADING IT NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION AND EAST. STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BRING PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT LEAST OUR
EASTERN ZONES BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. STILL QUESTIONS
SURROUNDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE RESULTANT WESTWARD
EDGE OF PRECIPITATION...PRECIPITATION TYPE...AND INTENSITY. AS OF THE
00Z RUNS...GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT ACROSS THE MODEL
SUITE...BUT ALL HAVE NUDGED THE SURFACE LOW WEST OF THEIR POSITION
24HRS AGO.

CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR LIKELY SNOW TUESDAY MORNING REACHING WEST
TO THE OHIO RIVER INCLUDING PITTSBURGH. SIGNIFICANT MODEL SPREAD
DOES EXIST FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE VALUES TUESDAY...AND WITH THE
WESTWARD TREND...HAVE BUMPED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES. THIS WOULD
FAVOR AT LEAST SOME MIX OF RAIN/SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON THAT COULD
ULTIMATELY CUT INTO THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY DROP BELOW AVERAGE
THURSDAY...BEFORE REBOUNDING WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION BY THE WEEKEND.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
COMMENCE BY FRIDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
WITH A BURST OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG IT.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR WILL BE WITH LOW
PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR OHZ039-048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PAZ008.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR WVZ003-004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WVZ001-002-021-509>513.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     WVZ514.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 120926
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
426 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SNOW SNOW TO THE AREA LATER TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
OVERNIGHT DECOUPLING KEEPING WARM ADVECTION TO OUR WEST FROM
GENERALLY IMPACTING SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN RELEGATED TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH
MEANS A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY TODAY. THAT SAID...280-290K
LAYER ASCENT WILL INCREASE SLOWLY GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
GFS AND NAM CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS IN THE LAYER DROPPING
BELOW 10 MB SHORTLY AROUND 18Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. AS
SUCH...WHILE A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY KEEP MUCH MORE THAN
VERY LIGHT SNOW FROM FALLING OUT...GENERALLY CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT
SNOW WERE MAINTAINED IN THE AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE WARM ADVECTION WITH GOOD HI-RES AND
NAM/GFS MODEL AGREEMENT ON TIMING IT INTO THE NORTHERN REACHES OF
THE CWA TOWARD 00Z...DOWN TOWARD PITTSBURGH AROUND 03Z OR SO. THE
SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER IS STILL KEYING ON THIS BOUNDARY...AND HI-
RES REFLECTIVITIES ARE RATHER IMPRESSIVE AS IT SLICES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...AS IT STRAY FARTHER SOUTH
AND AWAY FROM A BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SOURCE..AKA LAKE ERIE...IT
GETS FAR LESS IMPRESSIVE. THUS...ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE AN INCH OR SO
WERE GENERALLY RELEGATED NORTH OF METRO PITTSBURGH.

BEHIND THE FRONT...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RISING INVERSION
HEIGHTS DUE TO RAPID COOLING AT 700 MB SHOULD ALLOW FOR LAKE
EFFECT BANDS TO PROPAGATE INLAND FAIRLY EFFICIENTLY. HI-RES
ARW/HRRR/NAM/GFS CONSENSUS DOES FAVOR A MULTI-LAKE FETCH
DEVELOPING ONE DOMINANT BAND DOWN THE LENGTH OF LAKE HURON AND
ACROSS LAKE ERIE INTO NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE CONSENSUS OF THE POSITIONS FAVORS
VENANGO COUNTY IN OUR AREA...THUS A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH WAS
ISSUED. THIS IS JUST A WATCH AND LATER MODEL RUNS MAY MEANDER THIS
BAND ONE WAY OR ANOTHER...SO FUTURE FORECASTS SHOULD BE MONITORED.

IN ADDITION TO PURE LAKE EFFECT...FAIRLY EFFICIENT UPSLOPE WILL
LIKELY COME INTO THE RIDGES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS WELL.
SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE OVERCOME BY EFFICIENT
MICROPHYSICS...HOWEVER EVEN WITH EFFICIENT RATIOS...A LACK OF QPF
SEEMS TO FAIL TO ALLOW MOST AREAS TO SURPASS ADVISORY CRITERIA ON
A WIDESPREAD BASIS. THUS...WHILE ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ALMOST
GUARANTEED...SIGNIFICANT SNOW SEEMS RATHER UNLIKELY.

ONE ADDITIONAL EVENTUALITY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SEEMS TO
BE A FAIRLY DEEP MIXING PROFILE. JUST OFF THE SURFACE...ROUGHLY
25-35 KTS OF MOMENTUM LOOKS TO BE PRESENT. THIS COMBINED WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING TOWARD 0F OVERNIGHT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR ALL AREAS TO SEE WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW
-10F...WHICH NECESSITATED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...ADDITIONAL MOMENTUM AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES MAY ALLOW FOR SOME AREAS TO DROP BELOW -25F. BECAUSE
OF ONLY MODEST CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD -25F NUMBERS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...A WIND CHILL WATCH WAS ISSUED. FURTHER SHIFTS CAN REFINE
WHETHER THIS SHOULD BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING OR ADVISORY. EITHER
WAY...VERY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN THE RIDGES WELL
BEYOND THE NEAR TERM. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE WANING LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST AND A SURFACE HIGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES NEAR THE ZERO DEGREE MARK FOR SUNDAY MORNING
LOWS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD IN...WINDS WILL BE
DECREASING ACROSS EASTERN OHIO. TO THE EAST AND NORTH
HOWEVER...SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL MEAN
WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW -10F. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS COULD SEE WIND
CHILLS AT OR BELOW -25F. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE CWA INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A WIND
CHILL WATCH ACROSS GARRETT AND EASTERN TUCKER COUNTIES.

BRIEF RIDGING SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL FINALLY DISRUPT THE MEAN
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL GRADUALLY KICK
INTO GEAR...BUT WITH SUCH A LOW STARTING POINT...HIGHS WILL STAY
WELL BELOW AVERAGE SUNDAY. THE NEXT WEAK WAVE ARRIVES MONDAY MORNING
SPREADING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW BACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN
INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY WARMER AIR SURGING NORTHWARD
WILL KEEP LOWS FROM BOTTOMING OUT MONDAY MORNING.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DIGGING TROUGH WILL DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MONDAY. STRONG SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL DEEPEN
THE LOW FURTHER AS IT ADVANCES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TAP INTO GULF AND ATLANTIC
MOISTURE...SPREADING IT NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION AND EAST. STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BRING PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT LEAST OUR
EASTERN ZONES BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. STILL QUESTIONS
SURROUNDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE RESULTANT WESTWARD
EDGE OF PRECIPITATION...PRECIPITATION TYPE...AND INTENSITY. AS OF THE
00Z RUNS...GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT ACROSS THE MODEL
SUITE...BUT ALL HAVE NUDGED THE SURFACE LOW WEST OF THEIR POSITION
24HRS AGO.

CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR LIKELY SNOW TUESDAY MORNING REACHING WEST
TO THE OHIO RIVER INCLUDING PITTSBURGH. SIGNIFICANT MODEL SPREAD
DOES EXIST FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE VALUES TUESDAY...AND WITH THE
WESTWARD TREND...HAVE BUMPED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES. THIS WOULD
FAVOR AT LEAST SOME MIX OF RAIN/SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON THAT COULD
ULTIMATELY CUT INTO THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY DROP BELOW AVERAGE
THURSDAY...BEFORE REBOUNDING WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION BY THE WEEKEND.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
COMMENCE BY FRIDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
WITH A BURST OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG IT.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR WILL BE WITH LOW
PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR OHZ039-048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PAZ008.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR WVZ003-004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WVZ001-002-021-509>513.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     WVZ514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 120902
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
402 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS MORNING...LIFTING
NORTHEAST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COASTS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR
THIS YEAR. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK HI PRES WAS RIGHT OVR THE FA EARLY THIS MORNG...PROVIDING
DRY/COLD CONDITIONS...WITH INCREASING HI AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
THE HI WILL SLIDE OFFSHR LATER THIS MORNING...WITH ATTENTION
QUICKLY TURNING TO WEAK LO PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THE SE CST...AS
SHRTWV ENERGY DIGS FM THE MIDWEST TWD THE NC/SC CST. TEMPS EARLY
THIS MORNG WERE RANGING FM THE UPR TEENS TO MID 20S ACRS THE
REGION WITH DWPTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LWR TEENS. THE LO PRES
AREA WILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY...AS IT TRACKS NE OFF THE NC AND VA
CSTS LATER THIS AFTN INTO TNGT. HAVE KEPT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES
IN PLACE FOR NE NC AND EXTRM SE VA...AND GENERALLY MAINTAINED SNOW
AMTS FOR THESE AREAS. BUT...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS AND THUS
DECREASED SNOW AMTS FARTHER N AND W INTO THE PIEDMONT...DUE TO
LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE (QPF AMTS) AND DYNAMICS (LIFT) IN THESE
LOCATIONS. BEST DYNAMICS (LIFT/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING) AND DEEPER
MOISTURE (HIGHEST QPF AMTS) REMAIN ACRS EXTRM SE VA AND NE NC FOR
THIS EVENT...AND THUS STILL COULD GET 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW (POSSIBLY
UP TO 4 INCHES) OVR NE NC COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE ALBEMARLE SND
AND ATLC CST...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES (POSSIBLY UP TO 3 INCHES) OVR
SE VA (HAMPTON ROADS AREA) SW INTO INTERIOR NE NC COUNTIES. VERY
LATE THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS EVENG...SOME SLEET MAY MIX IN WITH
THE SNOW NEAR THE NC CST. FOR INTERIOR SE VA...NE ACRS THE MIDDLE
PENINSULA INTO THE LWR MD ERN SHR AND INCLUDING ACCOMACK
COUNTY...SNOW AMTS COULD END UP BETWEEN 0.5 INCH AND 1 INCH.
BUT...NO ADVSY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOCATIONS. PLEASE SEE LATEST
WSW FOR MORE INFO. SNOW COMES TO AN END THIS EVENG/EARLY TNGT...AS
THE SFC LO PUSHES WELL ENE OF THE MID-ATLC CST AND THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY PUSHES THRU THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW/ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR VORTEX DIGS
OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. ~1040MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE MIDWEST...USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDY SAT WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH (STRONGER NEAR THE COAST AND
OVER THE EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS SAT FORECAST TO WARM ONLY INTO THE
MID 20S NW TO LOW 30S SE (-2 STD DEV) UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE TEENS...RESULTING IN A
RAW/COLD/WINDY DAY. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS SAT NIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE INLAND AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...BUT WIND CHILLS STILL FORECAST IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
INLAND TO 0 TO 8 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN SHORE. THE HIGH CENTERS
OVER THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WITH NLY WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. SLIGHTLY
COLDER SUN WITH DECREASED MIXING. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER
20S (-2 STD DEV) UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ATTENTION
TURNING TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. THERE
REMAINS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS...ALTHOUGH
THE 11/12Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING SLOWER...AND WARMER FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. THE 11/12Z GFS CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PCPN MONDAY AS A NRN STREAM TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WOULD MAINLY FALL AS SN OR SN/IP...WITH A TRANSITION TO
RA CLOSER TO THE COAST BY AFTERNOON. SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT WOULD
GENERALLY RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO RA MONDAY NIGHT...ASIDE FROM THE
FAR NW WHERE MIXED PCPN COULD PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH AN
IN-SITU WEDGE IN PLACE. THE LATEST DATA SCOURS OUT THE WEDGE BY
AFTERNOON WITH P-TYPE BECOMING RA EVEN IN THE FAR NW. DRYING OCCURS
MIDWEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE
CLIPPING THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
OF COOLER AIR AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS MONDAY WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW 30S ALONG
AND W OF I-95...WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW 40S. TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY MONDAY EVENING AND BEGIN TO RISE
OVERNIGHT EVENTUALLY WARMING INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S...FOLLOWED BY
LOW 40S NE...TO UPPER 40S SW THURSDAY. MORNING LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CNDTNS ALL AREAS THRU AT LEAST 15Z AS HIGH/MID LVL CLDS OVRSPRD
THE RGN. SNOW FROM APPRCHG LOW PRS TO THE SW OVRSPRDS THE SERN TAF
SITES ARND 18Z. VSBY XPCTD TO DROP TO 1/2SM FOR A 2-4 HR PRD (20-00Z)
AT ECG ORF AND PHF PER LTST MODEL GUID. THIS WUD BE THE TIME FRAME
FOR SNOW ACCUMLS. ADDED SOME IP AT ECG AS PCPN COMES TO AN END ARND
00Z DUE TO MARINE INFLUENCES. CUD EVEN SEE SOME PL MIXING IN AT
ORF...BUT THNK SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN PCPN TYPE THERE.

SBY LOOKS TO GET SOME SNOW BTWN 22-02Z AS WELL BUT DID NOT GO AS
LOW WITH THE VSBY THERE AS LESS THAN ONE INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED.
LOW DP TMPS AND DRY AIRMASS OVR THE PIEDMONT SHUD PREVENT ANYTHING
MORE THAN SCT FLURRIES AT RIC.

OUTLOOK...GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP FRIDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY. VFR AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
PCPN DEVELOPS MONDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
SW. PCPN BEGINS AS SNOW UNDER A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUT THIS BREAKS
DOWN AND WARMER AIR WORKS IN AND CHANGES SNOW TO RAIN FROM SE TO NW.

RAIN CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
DRY WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES TODAY AS THE MARINE AREA WINDS WILL GNRLY BE AOB 15KTS
AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRS PROGGED TO MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW WILL NOT BRING ANY WIND RELATED MARINE
HEADLINES...THE ASSCTD PCPN WILL BRING REDUCED VSBYS IN SNOW/SLEET
OF VARYING INTENSITIES LATE THIS AFTRN AND EVE.

AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-40KT OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO
5-8FT WITH 4-5 FT WAVES IN THE BAY. GALE FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR
LATE TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND
SPEEDS HAVE BEEN CAPPED AT HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME.

EXPANDED THE FREEZING SPRAY WINDOW TO INCLUDE SAT...SAT NITE AND SUN
MORN GIVEN FCSTD WND SPEEDS / GUSTS COMBINED WITH AIR TMPS BELOW 30
DEGREES. LIMITED THE FREEZING SPRAY TO THE MORE OPEN CHES BAY AND
CSTL WATER AREAS. PER COORD WITH PHL...HOISTED FREEZING SPRAY ADVSRY
FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL. THIS MEANS LIGHT TO MDT ACCUMULATION OF
ICE CAN BE EXPECTED ON VESSELS.

THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES
ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES / LOW WATER ADVISORIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST
     TONIGHT FOR NCZ012>014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST
     TONIGHT FOR NCZ015>017-030>032-102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST
     TONIGHT FOR VAZ092-093-095>098-100-523>525.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ633-635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM/TMG
SHORT TERM...SAM/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KPHI 120857
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
357 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST TODAY, WHILE
ANOTHER MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA.
BITTER COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND, BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. THIS HIGH WILL BUILD
OFFSHORE MONDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE EAST
COAST AND AFFECT OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGS SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA, THROUGH THE
DAY. IN RESPONSE, SHOULD SEE THE SURFACE LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES
REGION INTENSIFY AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST. THOUGH THIS WOULD SUGGEST
A MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. HOWEVER, WITH SURFACE
WINDS STILL NORTHWESTERLY, ALBEIT CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER THAN
YESTERDAY, DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO TRANSLATE INTO HIGHER MAX TEMPS
AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. IF ANYTHING, TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE A
DEGREE OR TWO LOWER THAN YESTERDAY.

SNOW...LAPSE RATES AREN`T QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE AS WHAT WE SAW
YESTERDAY WHEN THERE WERE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER, WHAT
THIS PATTERN LACKS IN LAPSE RATES, IT LOOKS TO MAKE UP FOR IN LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THUS,
THERE SHOULD BE A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION, WITH
HIGHER CHANCES TOWARDS THE POCONOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
COULD SEE SNOW SHOWERS LINGER THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION. CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MEAN
ANOTHER VERY CHILLY NIGHT, WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS
(EXCEPT IN THE POCONOS AND NW NJ, WHERE SINGLE DIGITS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN). HOWEVER, WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT, SO AT THIS POINT IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE ANYONE WILL REACH
WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS IN THE POCONOS, WHICH COULD COME CLOSE
TO ADVISORY CRITERIA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, TO KEEP
THINGS SIMPLE, WE WILL JUST MENTION THE POTENTIAL WITH THE WIND
CHILL WARNING WHICH WILL BE STARTING SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN FOCUS ON THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE BITTER COLD
AFFECTING THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES AND WIND
CHILLS WILL AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ON SATURDAY,
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WHILE THE LOW OFF THE COAST STRENGTHENS. AN
ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY,
WHICH WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR. IN FACT, TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY FALL THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AS THERE WILL BE FAIRLY
STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH ENHANCE LOW-MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. SPEAKING THE NORTHWEST
FLOW, WINDS SATURDAY WILL LIKELY GUST 35-40 MPH, WITH SOME AREA
APPROACHING ADVISORY LEVELS; WE`VE HELD OF ON ANY WIND ADVISORY AT
THIS TIME.

ANY SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END BY THE EVENING, BUT THE WIND WILL
REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINDS, THE BITTER
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. THE WIND CHILL WARNING
ACROSS THE POCONOS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA, SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS WILL OCCUR, WITH MOST
AREAS REACHING INTO -5 TO -15 RANGE.

SUNDAY WILL REMAIN COLD, ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOME DURING
THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE AS THE AIR MASS
WILL BE QUITE DRY; ALTHOUGH MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

HOWEVER, AS WE GO INTO MONDAY, MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN THE RETURN FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE STRENGTHENING ALONG THE
GULF STATES MONDAY, WHILE A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD
TOWARD OUR AREA. OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AFFECTING THE
AREA STARTING MONDAY, AND WITH TEMPERATURES BEING COLD ENOUGH,
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START OUT AS SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN MONDAY NIGHT, AND MAKE ITS
WAY INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY. WARMER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AS
THE LOW MAKES ITS WAY NORTHWARD, SO MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO
TURN TO RAIN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. AS THE LOW LIFTS TO OUR NORTH
TUESDAY NIGHT, WE COULD HAVE SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION ON
THE BACKSIDE, WHICH COULD TURN BACK TO SNOW.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE LOW LIFTS WELL TO OUR NORTH, AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR
WEST.SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW.THE PRECIPITATION COULD CHANGE TO RAIN FOR MANY
AREAS DURING THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. BY 21Z, CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION LASTING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS,
EXPECT MVFR, AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. AT THIS POINT,
EXPECT THE HIGHEST RISK OF SNOW SHOWERS TO INCLUDE KABE, KRDG, KTTN,
KPNE, AND KPHL, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE AT THE OTHER TAF
SITES AS WELL.

SNOW CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE CONSIDERABLY AFTER 06Z. HOWEVER, MVFR
CEILINGS MAY PERSIST BEYOND THAT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR CIGS. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE,
WHICH COULD REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS TEMPORARILY. NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASING SATURDAY TO 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 30-35 KNOTS EARLY, DIMINISHING SOME OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. GUSTS STILL 20-25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...DEGRADING CONDITIONS WITH MVFR/IFR LIKELY
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW POSSIBLY
BEGINNING MONDAY FOR MANY AREAS, POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN AT
TIMES FOR SOME AREAS.

TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE OVER TO RAIN FOR MANY AREAS DURING THE
DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHOULD SEE A LULL IN THE WINDS AND SEAS TODAY AND THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT BUT EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE CONSIDERABLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT, REACHING GALE FORCE ON ALL THE WATERS BEFORE DAWN.
WITH THE INCREASING WINDS, ALSO EXPECT FREEZING SPRAY RATES TO
INCREASE, SO HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FOR THE SAME
PERIOD AS WELL.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING CONTINUES WITH STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT AS VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING AND FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE DAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY RETURN TO THE AREA AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EAST
COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN SEVERAL DEGREES
OF ZERO (WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 8 AM
SUNDAY EXCEPT COLDER KMPO (NEAR -12F). THIS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY
THE GFS/ECMWF 2M TEMPS CYCLICALLY SINCE AT LEAST THE 00Z/7
OPERATIONAL CYCLES. THEREFORE, BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD EQUALING OR
EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY THE 14TH WOULD BE KABE, KTTN, KPHL
AND KMPO.

SNOW COVER MAY HELP A BIT I-95 NORTHWESTWARD...AND WE`LL SEE
WHERE WE ARE WITH SNOW COVER BY THURSDAY EVENING. NEW DUSTINGS
APPEAR ON THE WAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

PLEASE NOTE... GUIDANCE IN PART IS BEING CLIMO BIASED HIGHER THAN
WHAT THE ONCOMING GFS/ECMWF LITERAL AIRMASS AND 2M TEMPS ARE INDICATING
FOR SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING IN THE URBAN AREAS SHOULD
BE ABOUT 25 COLDER THAN NORMAL. THAT MEANS GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR PHL
OF 5 AND 6 DEGREES APPEAR TOO WARM...ESPECIALLY WITH A NORMAL
PHILADELPHIA LOW ON SUNDAY OF 28.

HAVE SEEN THE 12Z/11 2M TEMPS FOR PHL...1 ABOVE RANGING DOWN TO
-11 AT KMPO AND AM LIKING THOSE VALUES AS WITHIN 2F OF THE
UPCOMING REALITY.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE
14TH, IF THEN.  THOSE HAVE BEEN ADDED RECENTLY BELOW.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH ----RER LOW MAX
---------------------- --------------------

ABE             8                         -1 IN 1979     14-1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979     13-1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979     14-1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979     13-1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

SO, THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY 30 BELOW IN
THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KLWX 120837
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
337 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN ITS WAKE FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE
AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIPRES ATOP CWFA ATTM. HWVR...HIGH CLDS ALREADY STREAMING EWD. SHUD
GET MID DECK SOON TOO...AS WE ENTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF WAA. THE THEME
FOR THE DAY WILL BE FOR THICKENING/LOWERING CLDS...AHD OF A NRN
STREAM S/WV AND REINFORCING CDFNT. SCT-NMRS SHSN SHUD ACCOMPANY
THELIFT AHD OF THE FNT...WHICH MAY MAKE IT TO I-81 BY THE END OF
THEDAY TEMPS ONLY A PINCH HIER THAN YDA...AND STILL WAY BLO AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
CFP TNGT...BRINGING A HOST OF POTL HAZARDS. ISSUES ARE WINDS...
SNOW... AND WIND CHILL.

SNOW...PARAMETERS LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
COINCIDENT W/ THE FNT TNGT.  SCALE OF THREAT LKLY FINER THAN
GDNC...SO AM ABV MOS. ACCUMS WUD BE UNDER AN INCH...AND WUD BE ONT
HE ERN SHORE BEFORE MIDNGT.

IN THE MTNS...THE TRAJ FVRBL FOR UPSLP TNGT-SAT...AND THE DRY AMS
WUD LEAD TO A HIGH SNOW RATIO. THIS WL ACCUM SVRL INCHES. HWVR...AM
JUST UNDER ADVY CRITERIA...WHICH IS SOMEWHAT FITTING SINCE SNOW
GROWTH ZONE LOW...AND NOT INTERSECTING THE BEST LIFT.

WINDS...ATMOS WL BE WELL MIXED IN STRONG CAA POST-FRONT. MDL SNDGS
SUGGEST 30-SOMETHING KT GUSTS. WUDNT RULE OUT A FEW 40 KTS.
CONFIDENCE NOT QUITE THERE FOR WIND ADVYS. ADMITTEDLY ITS CLOSE FOR
THE MTNS.

TEMPS...CONTINING TEMP FCSTS ON THE LOW END OF GDNC...BOTH MIN-T
TNGT AND MAXT SAT.

WIND CHILLS...COMBINE THE PREV TWO BULLETS...AND WIND CHILLS WL
DEFINITELY BE A FACTOR. BEST CHC AT ADVY IN THE MTNS. IT FALLS ABT 5-
10 DEGF SHORT ELSW. PROJECTING ONWARD THOUGH...THE MTNS ALMOST
THREATEN WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA...SPCLY SAT NGT INTO SUN.
ELSW...FCST VALUES FLIRT W/ ADVY CRITERIA SAT NGT-SUN. MINDFUL THAT
WE/RE SVRL CYCLES OUT...AND NOTHING SEEMS SLAM-DUNK OTHER THAN WIND
CHILL ADVYS IN THE MTNS...WUD RATHER NOT MAKE FIRM WRNG/ADVY
DECISION YET. COGNIZANT OF THE THREAT THO...WL BE ISSUING WIND CHILL
WATCHES FOR THE MTNS...WHERE VALUES ARE THE LOWEST. OTHER COUNTIES
WL BE CARRIED IN THE HWO. HOPEFULLY...LATER SHIFTS WL BE ABLE TO
MAKE BETTER-INFORMED DECISIONS.

BY SUN...THE RDG WL BE OVERHEAD...AND THE ONLY HAZARD LEFT WL BE
COLD TEMPS.  MAY HV PCPN RETURNING LT SUN NGT AHD OF NXT SYSTEM. HV
CHCS TO COVER. MORE IN LONG TERM DSCN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
RETREATING QUICKLY ON MON WITH MOISTURE ADVANCING QUICKLY NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF A SRN STREAM SYSTEM FOR A POTENTIAL BIG MESS MON-TUE WITH
HEAVY PRECIP AMOUNTS. POTENTIAL FOR 6+ INCHES OF SNOW APPEARS TO BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WITH SIGNIFICANT ICING FROM
THERE TO THE ROUTE 15 CORRIDOR AND LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP TO MOSTLY
RAIN EAST OF THERE. THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN MODELS TO
BRING SFC TEMPS ABV FREEZING EVERYWHERE BY 18Z TUE WITH 50S POSSIBLE
OVER EASTERN AREAS AS H85 TEMPS CLIMB ABV 5C AS STRONG SRLY WINDS
DEVELOP. IN ADDITION TO WINTRY PRECIP CONCERNS...LATEST 00Z ECMWF
INDICATES HEAVY PRECIP AMOUNTS UP TO 3.5 INCHES WATER EQUIVALENT
WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING ISSUES. WARMER TEMPS...RUNOFF AND
SNOWMELT COULD LEAD TO ICE JAM FLOODING PROBLEMS ESPECIALLY AFTER
THIS WEEKEND`S FRIGID AIR MASS.

BY MID WEEK...SRN STREAM SYSTEM MERGES/PHASES WITH A NRN STREAM
DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH SYSTEM INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
LEADING TO STRONG NW FLOW AND DRYING CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR THRU VALID TAF PD. CLDS WL BE OVERSPREADING THE
TERMINALS TDA...FIRST HIGH/MID DECK...AND SHUD HV STCU BY EVNG.
CDFNT COMING THIS EVNG...PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHSN. AREAL
CVRG/CONFIDENCE IN A PT FCST THE CONCERN. THUS...THESE DO NOT APPEAR
IN TAFS ATTM. WUD HV BREIF IFR IF AIRFIELD AFFECTED.

WINDS BECOME NW AND PICK UP POST-FRONT...WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE MID
30S AFTR MIDNGT TNGT THRU SAT AFTN.

HIPRES BLDS SAT NGT-SUN. WINDS GRDLY DIMINISHING. NO OTHER
RESTRICTIONS ANTICIPATED.

SIG WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION MON-TUE WITH HEAVY WINTRY
PRECIP MON-MON NIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ESPECIALLY AT
KCHO...KIAD AND KMRB BEFORE IT TURNS TO ALL RAIN TUE AFTERNOON. IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY MON-TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HV DIMINISHED...AND WL HV A BRIEF PD OF SUB-SCA CONDS TDA INTO
THIS EVNG. CDFNT COMING TNGT...PRODUCING NW WINDS W/ 30-40KT GUSTS.
THREAT WUD LKLY BEGIN ARND/JUST AFTR MIDNGT. FOR SIMPLICITY...HV
RAISED GLW TNGT...AND CARRIED IT THRU SAT NGT. SCA LKLY ON SUN...
WHICH CAN BE ADDRESSED LATER.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     MDZ501-502.
VA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     VAZ503-504.
WV...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     WVZ501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...HTS/LFR
MARINE...HTS/LFR




000
FXUS61 KLWX 120837
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
337 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN ITS WAKE FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE
AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIPRES ATOP CWFA ATTM. HWVR...HIGH CLDS ALREADY STREAMING EWD. SHUD
GET MID DECK SOON TOO...AS WE ENTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF WAA. THE THEME
FOR THE DAY WILL BE FOR THICKENING/LOWERING CLDS...AHD OF A NRN
STREAM S/WV AND REINFORCING CDFNT. SCT-NMRS SHSN SHUD ACCOMPANY
THELIFT AHD OF THE FNT...WHICH MAY MAKE IT TO I-81 BY THE END OF
THEDAY TEMPS ONLY A PINCH HIER THAN YDA...AND STILL WAY BLO AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
CFP TNGT...BRINGING A HOST OF POTL HAZARDS. ISSUES ARE WINDS...
SNOW... AND WIND CHILL.

SNOW...PARAMETERS LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
COINCIDENT W/ THE FNT TNGT.  SCALE OF THREAT LKLY FINER THAN
GDNC...SO AM ABV MOS. ACCUMS WUD BE UNDER AN INCH...AND WUD BE ONT
HE ERN SHORE BEFORE MIDNGT.

IN THE MTNS...THE TRAJ FVRBL FOR UPSLP TNGT-SAT...AND THE DRY AMS
WUD LEAD TO A HIGH SNOW RATIO. THIS WL ACCUM SVRL INCHES. HWVR...AM
JUST UNDER ADVY CRITERIA...WHICH IS SOMEWHAT FITTING SINCE SNOW
GROWTH ZONE LOW...AND NOT INTERSECTING THE BEST LIFT.

WINDS...ATMOS WL BE WELL MIXED IN STRONG CAA POST-FRONT. MDL SNDGS
SUGGEST 30-SOMETHING KT GUSTS. WUDNT RULE OUT A FEW 40 KTS.
CONFIDENCE NOT QUITE THERE FOR WIND ADVYS. ADMITTEDLY ITS CLOSE FOR
THE MTNS.

TEMPS...CONTINING TEMP FCSTS ON THE LOW END OF GDNC...BOTH MIN-T
TNGT AND MAXT SAT.

WIND CHILLS...COMBINE THE PREV TWO BULLETS...AND WIND CHILLS WL
DEFINITELY BE A FACTOR. BEST CHC AT ADVY IN THE MTNS. IT FALLS ABT 5-
10 DEGF SHORT ELSW. PROJECTING ONWARD THOUGH...THE MTNS ALMOST
THREATEN WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA...SPCLY SAT NGT INTO SUN.
ELSW...FCST VALUES FLIRT W/ ADVY CRITERIA SAT NGT-SUN. MINDFUL THAT
WE/RE SVRL CYCLES OUT...AND NOTHING SEEMS SLAM-DUNK OTHER THAN WIND
CHILL ADVYS IN THE MTNS...WUD RATHER NOT MAKE FIRM WRNG/ADVY
DECISION YET. COGNIZANT OF THE THREAT THO...WL BE ISSUING WIND CHILL
WATCHES FOR THE MTNS...WHERE VALUES ARE THE LOWEST. OTHER COUNTIES
WL BE CARRIED IN THE HWO. HOPEFULLY...LATER SHIFTS WL BE ABLE TO
MAKE BETTER-INFORMED DECISIONS.

BY SUN...THE RDG WL BE OVERHEAD...AND THE ONLY HAZARD LEFT WL BE
COLD TEMPS.  MAY HV PCPN RETURNING LT SUN NGT AHD OF NXT SYSTEM. HV
CHCS TO COVER. MORE IN LONG TERM DSCN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
RETREATING QUICKLY ON MON WITH MOISTURE ADVANCING QUICKLY NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF A SRN STREAM SYSTEM FOR A POTENTIAL BIG MESS MON-TUE WITH
HEAVY PRECIP AMOUNTS. POTENTIAL FOR 6+ INCHES OF SNOW APPEARS TO BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WITH SIGNIFICANT ICING FROM
THERE TO THE ROUTE 15 CORRIDOR AND LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP TO MOSTLY
RAIN EAST OF THERE. THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN MODELS TO
BRING SFC TEMPS ABV FREEZING EVERYWHERE BY 18Z TUE WITH 50S POSSIBLE
OVER EASTERN AREAS AS H85 TEMPS CLIMB ABV 5C AS STRONG SRLY WINDS
DEVELOP. IN ADDITION TO WINTRY PRECIP CONCERNS...LATEST 00Z ECMWF
INDICATES HEAVY PRECIP AMOUNTS UP TO 3.5 INCHES WATER EQUIVALENT
WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING ISSUES. WARMER TEMPS...RUNOFF AND
SNOWMELT COULD LEAD TO ICE JAM FLOODING PROBLEMS ESPECIALLY AFTER
THIS WEEKEND`S FRIGID AIR MASS.

BY MID WEEK...SRN STREAM SYSTEM MERGES/PHASES WITH A NRN STREAM
DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH SYSTEM INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
LEADING TO STRONG NW FLOW AND DRYING CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR THRU VALID TAF PD. CLDS WL BE OVERSPREADING THE
TERMINALS TDA...FIRST HIGH/MID DECK...AND SHUD HV STCU BY EVNG.
CDFNT COMING THIS EVNG...PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHSN. AREAL
CVRG/CONFIDENCE IN A PT FCST THE CONCERN. THUS...THESE DO NOT APPEAR
IN TAFS ATTM. WUD HV BREIF IFR IF AIRFIELD AFFECTED.

WINDS BECOME NW AND PICK UP POST-FRONT...WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE MID
30S AFTR MIDNGT TNGT THRU SAT AFTN.

HIPRES BLDS SAT NGT-SUN. WINDS GRDLY DIMINISHING. NO OTHER
RESTRICTIONS ANTICIPATED.

SIG WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION MON-TUE WITH HEAVY WINTRY
PRECIP MON-MON NIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ESPECIALLY AT
KCHO...KIAD AND KMRB BEFORE IT TURNS TO ALL RAIN TUE AFTERNOON. IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY MON-TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HV DIMINISHED...AND WL HV A BRIEF PD OF SUB-SCA CONDS TDA INTO
THIS EVNG. CDFNT COMING TNGT...PRODUCING NW WINDS W/ 30-40KT GUSTS.
THREAT WUD LKLY BEGIN ARND/JUST AFTR MIDNGT. FOR SIMPLICITY...HV
RAISED GLW TNGT...AND CARRIED IT THRU SAT NGT. SCA LKLY ON SUN...
WHICH CAN BE ADDRESSED LATER.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     MDZ501-502.
VA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     VAZ503-504.
WV...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     WVZ501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...HTS/LFR
MARINE...HTS/LFR



000
FXUS61 KLWX 120837
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
337 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN ITS WAKE FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE
AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIPRES ATOP CWFA ATTM. HWVR...HIGH CLDS ALREADY STREAMING EWD. SHUD
GET MID DECK SOON TOO...AS WE ENTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF WAA. THE THEME
FOR THE DAY WILL BE FOR THICKENING/LOWERING CLDS...AHD OF A NRN
STREAM S/WV AND REINFORCING CDFNT. SCT-NMRS SHSN SHUD ACCOMPANY
THELIFT AHD OF THE FNT...WHICH MAY MAKE IT TO I-81 BY THE END OF
THEDAY TEMPS ONLY A PINCH HIER THAN YDA...AND STILL WAY BLO AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
CFP TNGT...BRINGING A HOST OF POTL HAZARDS. ISSUES ARE WINDS...
SNOW... AND WIND CHILL.

SNOW...PARAMETERS LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
COINCIDENT W/ THE FNT TNGT.  SCALE OF THREAT LKLY FINER THAN
GDNC...SO AM ABV MOS. ACCUMS WUD BE UNDER AN INCH...AND WUD BE ONT
HE ERN SHORE BEFORE MIDNGT.

IN THE MTNS...THE TRAJ FVRBL FOR UPSLP TNGT-SAT...AND THE DRY AMS
WUD LEAD TO A HIGH SNOW RATIO. THIS WL ACCUM SVRL INCHES. HWVR...AM
JUST UNDER ADVY CRITERIA...WHICH IS SOMEWHAT FITTING SINCE SNOW
GROWTH ZONE LOW...AND NOT INTERSECTING THE BEST LIFT.

WINDS...ATMOS WL BE WELL MIXED IN STRONG CAA POST-FRONT. MDL SNDGS
SUGGEST 30-SOMETHING KT GUSTS. WUDNT RULE OUT A FEW 40 KTS.
CONFIDENCE NOT QUITE THERE FOR WIND ADVYS. ADMITTEDLY ITS CLOSE FOR
THE MTNS.

TEMPS...CONTINING TEMP FCSTS ON THE LOW END OF GDNC...BOTH MIN-T
TNGT AND MAXT SAT.

WIND CHILLS...COMBINE THE PREV TWO BULLETS...AND WIND CHILLS WL
DEFINITELY BE A FACTOR. BEST CHC AT ADVY IN THE MTNS. IT FALLS ABT 5-
10 DEGF SHORT ELSW. PROJECTING ONWARD THOUGH...THE MTNS ALMOST
THREATEN WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA...SPCLY SAT NGT INTO SUN.
ELSW...FCST VALUES FLIRT W/ ADVY CRITERIA SAT NGT-SUN. MINDFUL THAT
WE/RE SVRL CYCLES OUT...AND NOTHING SEEMS SLAM-DUNK OTHER THAN WIND
CHILL ADVYS IN THE MTNS...WUD RATHER NOT MAKE FIRM WRNG/ADVY
DECISION YET. COGNIZANT OF THE THREAT THO...WL BE ISSUING WIND CHILL
WATCHES FOR THE MTNS...WHERE VALUES ARE THE LOWEST. OTHER COUNTIES
WL BE CARRIED IN THE HWO. HOPEFULLY...LATER SHIFTS WL BE ABLE TO
MAKE BETTER-INFORMED DECISIONS.

BY SUN...THE RDG WL BE OVERHEAD...AND THE ONLY HAZARD LEFT WL BE
COLD TEMPS.  MAY HV PCPN RETURNING LT SUN NGT AHD OF NXT SYSTEM. HV
CHCS TO COVER. MORE IN LONG TERM DSCN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
RETREATING QUICKLY ON MON WITH MOISTURE ADVANCING QUICKLY NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF A SRN STREAM SYSTEM FOR A POTENTIAL BIG MESS MON-TUE WITH
HEAVY PRECIP AMOUNTS. POTENTIAL FOR 6+ INCHES OF SNOW APPEARS TO BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WITH SIGNIFICANT ICING FROM
THERE TO THE ROUTE 15 CORRIDOR AND LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP TO MOSTLY
RAIN EAST OF THERE. THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN MODELS TO
BRING SFC TEMPS ABV FREEZING EVERYWHERE BY 18Z TUE WITH 50S POSSIBLE
OVER EASTERN AREAS AS H85 TEMPS CLIMB ABV 5C AS STRONG SRLY WINDS
DEVELOP. IN ADDITION TO WINTRY PRECIP CONCERNS...LATEST 00Z ECMWF
INDICATES HEAVY PRECIP AMOUNTS UP TO 3.5 INCHES WATER EQUIVALENT
WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING ISSUES. WARMER TEMPS...RUNOFF AND
SNOWMELT COULD LEAD TO ICE JAM FLOODING PROBLEMS ESPECIALLY AFTER
THIS WEEKEND`S FRIGID AIR MASS.

BY MID WEEK...SRN STREAM SYSTEM MERGES/PHASES WITH A NRN STREAM
DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH SYSTEM INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
LEADING TO STRONG NW FLOW AND DRYING CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR THRU VALID TAF PD. CLDS WL BE OVERSPREADING THE
TERMINALS TDA...FIRST HIGH/MID DECK...AND SHUD HV STCU BY EVNG.
CDFNT COMING THIS EVNG...PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHSN. AREAL
CVRG/CONFIDENCE IN A PT FCST THE CONCERN. THUS...THESE DO NOT APPEAR
IN TAFS ATTM. WUD HV BREIF IFR IF AIRFIELD AFFECTED.

WINDS BECOME NW AND PICK UP POST-FRONT...WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE MID
30S AFTR MIDNGT TNGT THRU SAT AFTN.

HIPRES BLDS SAT NGT-SUN. WINDS GRDLY DIMINISHING. NO OTHER
RESTRICTIONS ANTICIPATED.

SIG WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION MON-TUE WITH HEAVY WINTRY
PRECIP MON-MON NIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ESPECIALLY AT
KCHO...KIAD AND KMRB BEFORE IT TURNS TO ALL RAIN TUE AFTERNOON. IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY MON-TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HV DIMINISHED...AND WL HV A BRIEF PD OF SUB-SCA CONDS TDA INTO
THIS EVNG. CDFNT COMING TNGT...PRODUCING NW WINDS W/ 30-40KT GUSTS.
THREAT WUD LKLY BEGIN ARND/JUST AFTR MIDNGT. FOR SIMPLICITY...HV
RAISED GLW TNGT...AND CARRIED IT THRU SAT NGT. SCA LKLY ON SUN...
WHICH CAN BE ADDRESSED LATER.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     MDZ501-502.
VA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     VAZ503-504.
WV...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     WVZ501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...HTS/LFR
MARINE...HTS/LFR




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 120618
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
118 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING MORE SNOW CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED BASICALLY WALL-TO-WALL AND TEMPERATURES HAVE
GONE INTO FREE FALL IN MOST AREAS. HIGH CLOUDS IN THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ARE POISED TO GENERALLY REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA AS THEY TRANSIT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY. THAT PLACES OUR AREA IN A WAITING PATTERN FOR THE MID-
CLOUD DECK AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM THAT WILL START TO AFFECT US ON
FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...CLEARING WILL REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...MEANING VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. SOME AREAS ARE ALREADY
BELOW ZERO...AND EVERYONE LOOKS TO AT THE VERY LEAST DROP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BY THE TIME ANY CLOUDS MAKE IT INTO THE AREA. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE LWR OH VLY/MID ATLANTIC
RGN FRI BRINGING INCRG LGT SNOW CHCS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...IS EXPD TO CROSS THE RGN FRI EVE WITH
BETTER CHCS FOR SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
UNDER UPR TROFG AND LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT LATER FRI NGT AND
SAT...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPD TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA AS DRY ARCTIC AIR RESULTS IN UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE CONTENT
IN THE SNOW GROWTH RGN. BLDG HIGH PRESSURE SAT NGT/SUN SHOULD
BRING DRY WEATHER.

WIND WITH SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT AND COLD TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT
THRU SOMETIME SAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADVISORY LVL WIND CHILLS
ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA. DIMINISHING WINDS MAY PROVIDE FOR LESSER
CHCS OF WIND CHILL ADVISORIES SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...THOUGH TEMPS NR
OR BELOW ZERO ARE EXPD. TEMPS WERE MODIFIED SLIGHTLY FROM
SUPERBLENDED GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES MOVE TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES
TO START THE WEEK. MODELS HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS FOR SOUTHERN
STREAM STORM SYSTEM INTENSIFYING AND MOVING NORTHEAST LATER
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WPC PROGS AND
THE SUPERBLEND...WITH HIGHEST POPS INTO THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY WITH
CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE SEASONAL NORM. HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO GIVE A DRY DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
COMMENCE BY FRIDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
WITH A BURST OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG IT.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR WILL BE WITH LOW
PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 120618
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
118 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING MORE SNOW CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED BASICALLY WALL-TO-WALL AND TEMPERATURES HAVE
GONE INTO FREE FALL IN MOST AREAS. HIGH CLOUDS IN THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ARE POISED TO GENERALLY REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA AS THEY TRANSIT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY. THAT PLACES OUR AREA IN A WAITING PATTERN FOR THE MID-
CLOUD DECK AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM THAT WILL START TO AFFECT US ON
FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...CLEARING WILL REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...MEANING VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. SOME AREAS ARE ALREADY
BELOW ZERO...AND EVERYONE LOOKS TO AT THE VERY LEAST DROP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BY THE TIME ANY CLOUDS MAKE IT INTO THE AREA. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE LWR OH VLY/MID ATLANTIC
RGN FRI BRINGING INCRG LGT SNOW CHCS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...IS EXPD TO CROSS THE RGN FRI EVE WITH
BETTER CHCS FOR SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
UNDER UPR TROFG AND LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT LATER FRI NGT AND
SAT...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPD TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA AS DRY ARCTIC AIR RESULTS IN UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE CONTENT
IN THE SNOW GROWTH RGN. BLDG HIGH PRESSURE SAT NGT/SUN SHOULD
BRING DRY WEATHER.

WIND WITH SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT AND COLD TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT
THRU SOMETIME SAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADVISORY LVL WIND CHILLS
ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA. DIMINISHING WINDS MAY PROVIDE FOR LESSER
CHCS OF WIND CHILL ADVISORIES SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...THOUGH TEMPS NR
OR BELOW ZERO ARE EXPD. TEMPS WERE MODIFIED SLIGHTLY FROM
SUPERBLENDED GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES MOVE TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES
TO START THE WEEK. MODELS HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS FOR SOUTHERN
STREAM STORM SYSTEM INTENSIFYING AND MOVING NORTHEAST LATER
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WPC PROGS AND
THE SUPERBLEND...WITH HIGHEST POPS INTO THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY WITH
CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE SEASONAL NORM. HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO GIVE A DRY DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
COMMENCE BY FRIDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
WITH A BURST OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG IT.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR WILL BE WITH LOW
PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPHI 120523
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1223 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE TO
THE EAST FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA AND CAUSE AN ARCTIC FRONT TO CROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE WEEKEND AND CREST OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE ARE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ALL BUT DISSIPATED AND NOW EXPECT A MAINLY
CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT. WIND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AND TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP.
SHOULD GET CLOSE TO ZERO IN PARTS OF E PA RADIATIORS PER GFS 2M
TEMPS. WESTERLY WINDS DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT LATE.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SUNNY, THEN INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE JAMES
BAY ARCTIC VORTEX DIVING SEWD...MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS UNTIL LATE IN
THE DAY. WINDS TURN SW AND THE UNSTABLE AND MOISTENING BOUNDARY
LAYER LAPSE RATES OVER THE STILL OPEN WATERS OF THE BAYS MAY YIELD
SOME BAY EFFECT FLURRIES LATE IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE, SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE WAA PATTERN IN PA COULD DEVELOP FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE POCONOS NEAR 5 PM. SW WIND.

50 50 BLENDED 12Z/11 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS. THIS WILL USHER
IN THE COLD WINDS WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING THROUGH THE TEENS IN
MOST AREAS AND REACHING THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
TEENS NORTH AND LOW 20S SOUTH. WIND CHILL VALUES MUCH OF THE DAY
WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH SUB-ZERO READINGS NORTH. WE HAVE
ISSUED A WIND CHILL WATCH FOR THE SRN POCONOS AND NW NJ FOR SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WHEN THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE OVER THE AREA.
WIND CHILL READINGS IN THESE AREAS WILL BE -25 TO -30 DEGREES. A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NE PA / NRN NJ
SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE  MON AND THEN TREND BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR
TUE/WED. THESE WARMER TEMPS WILL ARRIVE AT THE SAME TIME AS A WET
WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW. PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY
BEGIN MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. MANY OF THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE INDICATING ENOUGH OF A WARM-UP SO THAT MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN. IT LOOKS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF
THE PRECIPITATION INITIALLY COULD BE SNOW OR SOME SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN. WE WILL JUST HAVE RAIN/SNOW IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW WITH LIMITED
CONFID IN PLACEMENT OF ANY FROZEN PCPN.

THE STORM WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION NEXT WED AND MORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY AND LAST INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS THRU THE TAF PD WITH HIGH PRES. GUID SUGGESTS THERE CUD
BE A SNOW SHOWER FRI AFTN W THAT CUD LWR VSBYS/CIGS AT KRDG AND
KABE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WIND WILL BECOME MORE SWLY, AND WILL
REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT ONCE IT DECREASES OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL
LOWER AND THICKEN ON FRI


OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 25 KNOTS.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY THEN BECOMING MVFR AND
IFR BY EVENING WITH RAIN AND SNOW.

TUESDAY...WIDESPREAD LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WITH RAIN AND POSSIBLY SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING HAS BEEN LOWERED...EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
ON THE COASTAL WATERS AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. ONCE WINDS DIMINISH, EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO STAY BELOW
CRITERIA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. A GOOD DAY TO FINISH
UP ANY MARINE RELATED ACTIVITY.

OUTLOOK...
GALES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
WILL DECREASE BACK TO SCA CONDITIONS FOR AWHILE SUNDAY BEFORE
RETURNING TO SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. MORE SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN SEVERAL DEGREES
OF ZERO (WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 8 AM
SUNDAY EXCEPT COLDER KMPO (NEAR -12F). THIS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY
THE GFS/ECMWF 2M TEMPS CYCLICALLY SINCE AT LEAST THE 00Z/7
OPERATIONAL CYCLES. THEREFORE, BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD EQUALING OR
EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY THE 14TH WOULD BE KABE, KTTN, KPHL
AND KMPO.

SNOW COVER MAY HELP A BIT I-95 NORTHWESTWARD...AND WE`LL SEE
WHERE WE ARE WITH SNOW COVER BY THURSDAY EVENING. NEW DUSTINGS
APPEAR ON THE WAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

PLEASE NOTE... GUIDANCE IN PART IS BEING CLIMO BIASED HIGHER THAN
WHAT THE ONCOMING GFS/ECMWF LITERAL AIRMASS AND 2M TEMPS ARE INDICATING
FOR SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING IN THE URBAN AREAS SHOULD
BE ABOUT 25 COLDER THAN NORMAL. THAT MEANS GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR PHL
OF 5 AND 6 DEGREES APPEAR TOO WARM...ESPECIALLY WITH A NORMAL
PHILADELPHIA LOW ON SUNDAY OF 28.

HAVE SEEN THE 12Z/11 2M TEMPS FOR PHL...1 ABOVE RANGING DOWN TO
-11 AT KMPO AND AM LIKING THOSE VALUES AS WITHIN 2F OF THE
UPCOMING REALITY.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE
14TH, IF THEN.  THOSE HAVE BEEN ADDED RECENTLY BELOW.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH ----RER LOW MAX
---------------------- --------------------

ABE             8                         -1 IN 1979     14-1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979     13-1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979     14-1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979     13-1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

SO, THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY 30 BELOW IN
THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG/O`HARA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 120511
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1211 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY MORNING...LIFTING
NORTHEAST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COASTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS
YEAR. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK TNGT WITH DRY CONDS...SOME INCREASING
CLOUDS LATE...AND LO TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR TEENS TO LWR 20S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CENTERS ~1030MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH
VALLEY. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE GULF STATES. COLD
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. WIND
CHILLS IN THE 20S UNDER A SUNNY SKY.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. WINDS DECOUPLE
ALLOWING FOR EXCEPTIONAL RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS EVENING AS
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT AS ATTENTION TURNS TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH. HEIGHT FALLS WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SC/NC
COAST BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF
THRU LATE TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE NC COAST FRI MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PUSHES OVER THE CAROLINAS. SHORTWAVE AND INCREASING WINDS
ALOFT WILL PROVIDE ADEQUATE UVM OVER AN AREA OF 280-285K ISENTROPIC
LIFT ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE
MODEST...BUT MIXING RATIOS PROGGED TO REACH 3.0 TO 4.0 G/KG. THERMAL
PROFILES INDICATE HIGH RH/ICE IN THE SNOW GROWTH LAYER ALONG WITH
ABUNDANT LIFT DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. THE NET
RESULT WILL BE INCREASING POPS THRU MID TO LATE MORNING FRI AS SNOW
SPREADS INTO THE REGION. PRECIP CONTINUES THRU THE AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW LIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. QUESTION BECOMES HOW FAR NW
THE PRECIP SPREADS FRI AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE SE
COUNTIES TO CATEGORICAL...TAPERING OFF THE CHANCE OVER THE NW
COUNTIES. WITH THE LUXURY OF COLD CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES...SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PREDOMINATE PTYPE THRU THE DURATION OF THE
EVENT. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE LATE FRIDAY NEAREST THE ALBEMARLE SOUND
WHERE A LITTLE SLEET MAY MIX WITH THE SNOW TOWARD THE END OF THE
EVENT. HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
WHERE BANDING FROM FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW IS INDICATED IN THE MODELS. 2-4 INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THAT
AREA...REQUIRING A WINTER STORM WARNING. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST INTO
HAMPTON ROADS AND THE LOWER PENINSULA AND EASTERN SHORE...SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF TO 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES IN EFFECT. PLEASE SEE LATEST WSW FOR MORE INFO. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS TAPER OFF TO 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH TOWARD THE TRI CITIES AND MD
ERN SHORE...THEN A DUSTING TO HALF AN INCH RICHMOND NORTH AND WEST.
SNOW COMES TO AN END FRI EVENING AS THE SFC LOW PUSHES WELL OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES THRU THE
REGION.

CLOSED UPPER LOW/ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR VORTEX DIGS OVER
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. ~1040MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
MIDWEST...USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDY SAT WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH (STRONGER NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE
EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS SAT FORECAST TO WARM ONLY INTO THE MID 20S NW
TO LOW 30S SE (-2 STD DEV) UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE TEENS...RESULTING IN A RAW/COLD/WINDY
DAY. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS SAT NIGHT.
WINDS DECOUPLE INLAND AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION...BUT WIND
CHILLS STILL FORECAST IN THE SINGLE DIGITS INLAND TO 0 TO 8 BELOW
NRN NECK TO THE ERN SHORE. THE HIGH CENTERS OVER THE LOCAL AREA
SUNDAY WITH NLY WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. SLIGHTLY COLDER SUN WITH
DECREASED MIXING. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 20S (-2 STD DEV)
UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ATTENTION
TURNING TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. THERE
REMAINS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS...ALTHOUGH
THE 11/12Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING SLOWER...AND WARMER FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. THE 11/12Z GFS CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PCPN MONDAY AS A NRN STREAM TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WOULD MAINLY FALL AS SN OR SN/IP...WITH A TRANSITION TO
RA CLOSER TO THE COAST BY AFTERNOON. SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT WOULD
GENERALLY RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO RA MONDAY NIGHT...ASIDE FROM THE
FAR NW WHERE MIXED PCPN COULD PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH AN
IN-SITU WEDGE IN PLACE. THE LATEST DATA SCOURS OUT THE WEDGE BY
AFTERNOON WITH P-TYPE BECOMING RA EVEN IN THE FAR NW. DRYING OCCURS
MIDWEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE
CLIPPING THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
OF COOLER AIR AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS MONDAY WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW 30S ALONG
AND W OF I-95...WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW 40S. TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY MONDAY EVENING AND BEGIN TO RISE
OVERNIGHT EVENTUALLY WARMING INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S...FOLLOWED BY
LOW 40S NE...TO UPPER 40S SW THURSDAY. MORNING LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CNDTNS ALL AREAS THRU AT LEAST 15Z AS HIGH/MID LVL CLDS OVRSPRD
THE RGN. SNOW FROM APPRCHG LOW PRS TO THE SW OVRSPRDS THE SERN TAF
SITES ARND 18Z. VSBY XPCTD TO DROP TO 1/2SM FOR A 2-4 HR PRD (20-00Z)
AT ECG ORF AND PHF PER LTST MODEL GUID. THIS WUD BE THE TIME FRAME
FOR SNOW ACCUMLS. ADDED SOME IP AT ECG AS PCPN COMES TO AN END ARND
00Z DUE TO MARINE INFLUENCES. CUD EVEN SEE SOME PL MIXING IN AT
ORF...BUT THNK SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN PCPN TYPE THERE.

SBY LOOKS TO GET SOME SNOW BTWN 22-02Z AS WELL BUT DID NOT GO AS
LOW WITH THE VSBY THERE AS LESS THAN ONE INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED.
LOW DP TMPS AND DRY AIRMASS OVR THE PIEDMONT SHUD PREVENT ANYTHING
MORE THAN SCT FLURRIES AT RIC.

OUTLOOK...GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP FRIDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY. VFR AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
PCPN DEVELOPS MONDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
SW. PCPN BEGINS AS SNOW UNDER A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUT THIS BREAKS
DOWN AND WARMER AIR WORKS IN AND CHANGES SNOW TO RAIN FROM SE TO NW.

RAIN CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
DRY WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FORM THE NW TONIGHT AND SETTLES
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH
AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...WITH SCA HEADLINES GRADUALLY
ENDING THROUGH THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE FRIDAY
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY AFTERNOON THE WIND WILL BECOME E/NE S OF
CAPE CHARLES WITH GENERALLY A S/SE DIRECTION N OF CAPE CHARLES.
SPEEDS WILL BE AOB 15KT. ADDITIONALLY...THIS LOW WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF SN...WHICH WILL REDUCE VSBY. AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NE
FRIDAY NIGHT A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-40KT OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 5-
8FT WITH 4-5 FT WAVES IN THE BAY. GALE FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY (4TH PERIOD). THESE WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NRN OCEAN ZONES. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN
CAPPED AT HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME. FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY AS
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES
ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NCZ012>014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NCZ015>017-030>032-102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR VAZ092-093-095>098-100-523>525.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM/TMG
NEAR TERM...MAS/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MPR/LSA
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 120511
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1211 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY MORNING...LIFTING
NORTHEAST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COASTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS
YEAR. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK TNGT WITH DRY CONDS...SOME INCREASING
CLOUDS LATE...AND LO TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR TEENS TO LWR 20S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CENTERS ~1030MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH
VALLEY. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE GULF STATES. COLD
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. WIND
CHILLS IN THE 20S UNDER A SUNNY SKY.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. WINDS DECOUPLE
ALLOWING FOR EXCEPTIONAL RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS EVENING AS
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT AS ATTENTION TURNS TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH. HEIGHT FALLS WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SC/NC
COAST BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF
THRU LATE TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE NC COAST FRI MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PUSHES OVER THE CAROLINAS. SHORTWAVE AND INCREASING WINDS
ALOFT WILL PROVIDE ADEQUATE UVM OVER AN AREA OF 280-285K ISENTROPIC
LIFT ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE
MODEST...BUT MIXING RATIOS PROGGED TO REACH 3.0 TO 4.0 G/KG. THERMAL
PROFILES INDICATE HIGH RH/ICE IN THE SNOW GROWTH LAYER ALONG WITH
ABUNDANT LIFT DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. THE NET
RESULT WILL BE INCREASING POPS THRU MID TO LATE MORNING FRI AS SNOW
SPREADS INTO THE REGION. PRECIP CONTINUES THRU THE AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW LIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. QUESTION BECOMES HOW FAR NW
THE PRECIP SPREADS FRI AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE SE
COUNTIES TO CATEGORICAL...TAPERING OFF THE CHANCE OVER THE NW
COUNTIES. WITH THE LUXURY OF COLD CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES...SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PREDOMINATE PTYPE THRU THE DURATION OF THE
EVENT. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE LATE FRIDAY NEAREST THE ALBEMARLE SOUND
WHERE A LITTLE SLEET MAY MIX WITH THE SNOW TOWARD THE END OF THE
EVENT. HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
WHERE BANDING FROM FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW IS INDICATED IN THE MODELS. 2-4 INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THAT
AREA...REQUIRING A WINTER STORM WARNING. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST INTO
HAMPTON ROADS AND THE LOWER PENINSULA AND EASTERN SHORE...SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF TO 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES IN EFFECT. PLEASE SEE LATEST WSW FOR MORE INFO. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS TAPER OFF TO 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH TOWARD THE TRI CITIES AND MD
ERN SHORE...THEN A DUSTING TO HALF AN INCH RICHMOND NORTH AND WEST.
SNOW COMES TO AN END FRI EVENING AS THE SFC LOW PUSHES WELL OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES THRU THE
REGION.

CLOSED UPPER LOW/ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR VORTEX DIGS OVER
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. ~1040MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
MIDWEST...USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDY SAT WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH (STRONGER NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE
EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS SAT FORECAST TO WARM ONLY INTO THE MID 20S NW
TO LOW 30S SE (-2 STD DEV) UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE TEENS...RESULTING IN A RAW/COLD/WINDY
DAY. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS SAT NIGHT.
WINDS DECOUPLE INLAND AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION...BUT WIND
CHILLS STILL FORECAST IN THE SINGLE DIGITS INLAND TO 0 TO 8 BELOW
NRN NECK TO THE ERN SHORE. THE HIGH CENTERS OVER THE LOCAL AREA
SUNDAY WITH NLY WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. SLIGHTLY COLDER SUN WITH
DECREASED MIXING. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 20S (-2 STD DEV)
UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ATTENTION
TURNING TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. THERE
REMAINS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS...ALTHOUGH
THE 11/12Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING SLOWER...AND WARMER FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. THE 11/12Z GFS CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PCPN MONDAY AS A NRN STREAM TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WOULD MAINLY FALL AS SN OR SN/IP...WITH A TRANSITION TO
RA CLOSER TO THE COAST BY AFTERNOON. SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT WOULD
GENERALLY RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO RA MONDAY NIGHT...ASIDE FROM THE
FAR NW WHERE MIXED PCPN COULD PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH AN
IN-SITU WEDGE IN PLACE. THE LATEST DATA SCOURS OUT THE WEDGE BY
AFTERNOON WITH P-TYPE BECOMING RA EVEN IN THE FAR NW. DRYING OCCURS
MIDWEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE
CLIPPING THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
OF COOLER AIR AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS MONDAY WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW 30S ALONG
AND W OF I-95...WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW 40S. TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY MONDAY EVENING AND BEGIN TO RISE
OVERNIGHT EVENTUALLY WARMING INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S...FOLLOWED BY
LOW 40S NE...TO UPPER 40S SW THURSDAY. MORNING LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CNDTNS ALL AREAS THRU AT LEAST 15Z AS HIGH/MID LVL CLDS OVRSPRD
THE RGN. SNOW FROM APPRCHG LOW PRS TO THE SW OVRSPRDS THE SERN TAF
SITES ARND 18Z. VSBY XPCTD TO DROP TO 1/2SM FOR A 2-4 HR PRD (20-00Z)
AT ECG ORF AND PHF PER LTST MODEL GUID. THIS WUD BE THE TIME FRAME
FOR SNOW ACCUMLS. ADDED SOME IP AT ECG AS PCPN COMES TO AN END ARND
00Z DUE TO MARINE INFLUENCES. CUD EVEN SEE SOME PL MIXING IN AT
ORF...BUT THNK SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN PCPN TYPE THERE.

SBY LOOKS TO GET SOME SNOW BTWN 22-02Z AS WELL BUT DID NOT GO AS
LOW WITH THE VSBY THERE AS LESS THAN ONE INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED.
LOW DP TMPS AND DRY AIRMASS OVR THE PIEDMONT SHUD PREVENT ANYTHING
MORE THAN SCT FLURRIES AT RIC.

OUTLOOK...GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP FRIDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY. VFR AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
PCPN DEVELOPS MONDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
SW. PCPN BEGINS AS SNOW UNDER A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUT THIS BREAKS
DOWN AND WARMER AIR WORKS IN AND CHANGES SNOW TO RAIN FROM SE TO NW.

RAIN CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
DRY WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FORM THE NW TONIGHT AND SETTLES
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH
AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...WITH SCA HEADLINES GRADUALLY
ENDING THROUGH THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE FRIDAY
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY AFTERNOON THE WIND WILL BECOME E/NE S OF
CAPE CHARLES WITH GENERALLY A S/SE DIRECTION N OF CAPE CHARLES.
SPEEDS WILL BE AOB 15KT. ADDITIONALLY...THIS LOW WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF SN...WHICH WILL REDUCE VSBY. AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NE
FRIDAY NIGHT A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-40KT OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 5-
8FT WITH 4-5 FT WAVES IN THE BAY. GALE FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY (4TH PERIOD). THESE WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NRN OCEAN ZONES. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN
CAPPED AT HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME. FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY AS
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES
ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NCZ012>014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NCZ015>017-030>032-102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR VAZ092-093-095>098-100-523>525.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM/TMG
NEAR TERM...MAS/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MPR/LSA
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 120511
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1211 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY MORNING...LIFTING
NORTHEAST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COASTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS
YEAR. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK TNGT WITH DRY CONDS...SOME INCREASING
CLOUDS LATE...AND LO TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR TEENS TO LWR 20S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CENTERS ~1030MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH
VALLEY. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE GULF STATES. COLD
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. WIND
CHILLS IN THE 20S UNDER A SUNNY SKY.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. WINDS DECOUPLE
ALLOWING FOR EXCEPTIONAL RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS EVENING AS
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT AS ATTENTION TURNS TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH. HEIGHT FALLS WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SC/NC
COAST BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF
THRU LATE TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE NC COAST FRI MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PUSHES OVER THE CAROLINAS. SHORTWAVE AND INCREASING WINDS
ALOFT WILL PROVIDE ADEQUATE UVM OVER AN AREA OF 280-285K ISENTROPIC
LIFT ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE
MODEST...BUT MIXING RATIOS PROGGED TO REACH 3.0 TO 4.0 G/KG. THERMAL
PROFILES INDICATE HIGH RH/ICE IN THE SNOW GROWTH LAYER ALONG WITH
ABUNDANT LIFT DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. THE NET
RESULT WILL BE INCREASING POPS THRU MID TO LATE MORNING FRI AS SNOW
SPREADS INTO THE REGION. PRECIP CONTINUES THRU THE AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW LIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. QUESTION BECOMES HOW FAR NW
THE PRECIP SPREADS FRI AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE SE
COUNTIES TO CATEGORICAL...TAPERING OFF THE CHANCE OVER THE NW
COUNTIES. WITH THE LUXURY OF COLD CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES...SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PREDOMINATE PTYPE THRU THE DURATION OF THE
EVENT. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE LATE FRIDAY NEAREST THE ALBEMARLE SOUND
WHERE A LITTLE SLEET MAY MIX WITH THE SNOW TOWARD THE END OF THE
EVENT. HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
WHERE BANDING FROM FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW IS INDICATED IN THE MODELS. 2-4 INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THAT
AREA...REQUIRING A WINTER STORM WARNING. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST INTO
HAMPTON ROADS AND THE LOWER PENINSULA AND EASTERN SHORE...SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF TO 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES IN EFFECT. PLEASE SEE LATEST WSW FOR MORE INFO. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS TAPER OFF TO 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH TOWARD THE TRI CITIES AND MD
ERN SHORE...THEN A DUSTING TO HALF AN INCH RICHMOND NORTH AND WEST.
SNOW COMES TO AN END FRI EVENING AS THE SFC LOW PUSHES WELL OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES THRU THE
REGION.

CLOSED UPPER LOW/ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR VORTEX DIGS OVER
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. ~1040MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
MIDWEST...USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDY SAT WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH (STRONGER NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE
EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS SAT FORECAST TO WARM ONLY INTO THE MID 20S NW
TO LOW 30S SE (-2 STD DEV) UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE TEENS...RESULTING IN A RAW/COLD/WINDY
DAY. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS SAT NIGHT.
WINDS DECOUPLE INLAND AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION...BUT WIND
CHILLS STILL FORECAST IN THE SINGLE DIGITS INLAND TO 0 TO 8 BELOW
NRN NECK TO THE ERN SHORE. THE HIGH CENTERS OVER THE LOCAL AREA
SUNDAY WITH NLY WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. SLIGHTLY COLDER SUN WITH
DECREASED MIXING. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 20S (-2 STD DEV)
UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ATTENTION
TURNING TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. THERE
REMAINS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS...ALTHOUGH
THE 11/12Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING SLOWER...AND WARMER FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. THE 11/12Z GFS CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PCPN MONDAY AS A NRN STREAM TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WOULD MAINLY FALL AS SN OR SN/IP...WITH A TRANSITION TO
RA CLOSER TO THE COAST BY AFTERNOON. SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT WOULD
GENERALLY RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO RA MONDAY NIGHT...ASIDE FROM THE
FAR NW WHERE MIXED PCPN COULD PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH AN
IN-SITU WEDGE IN PLACE. THE LATEST DATA SCOURS OUT THE WEDGE BY
AFTERNOON WITH P-TYPE BECOMING RA EVEN IN THE FAR NW. DRYING OCCURS
MIDWEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE
CLIPPING THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
OF COOLER AIR AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS MONDAY WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW 30S ALONG
AND W OF I-95...WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW 40S. TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY MONDAY EVENING AND BEGIN TO RISE
OVERNIGHT EVENTUALLY WARMING INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S...FOLLOWED BY
LOW 40S NE...TO UPPER 40S SW THURSDAY. MORNING LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CNDTNS ALL AREAS THRU AT LEAST 15Z AS HIGH/MID LVL CLDS OVRSPRD
THE RGN. SNOW FROM APPRCHG LOW PRS TO THE SW OVRSPRDS THE SERN TAF
SITES ARND 18Z. VSBY XPCTD TO DROP TO 1/2SM FOR A 2-4 HR PRD (20-00Z)
AT ECG ORF AND PHF PER LTST MODEL GUID. THIS WUD BE THE TIME FRAME
FOR SNOW ACCUMLS. ADDED SOME IP AT ECG AS PCPN COMES TO AN END ARND
00Z DUE TO MARINE INFLUENCES. CUD EVEN SEE SOME PL MIXING IN AT
ORF...BUT THNK SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN PCPN TYPE THERE.

SBY LOOKS TO GET SOME SNOW BTWN 22-02Z AS WELL BUT DID NOT GO AS
LOW WITH THE VSBY THERE AS LESS THAN ONE INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED.
LOW DP TMPS AND DRY AIRMASS OVR THE PIEDMONT SHUD PREVENT ANYTHING
MORE THAN SCT FLURRIES AT RIC.

OUTLOOK...GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP FRIDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY. VFR AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
PCPN DEVELOPS MONDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
SW. PCPN BEGINS AS SNOW UNDER A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUT THIS BREAKS
DOWN AND WARMER AIR WORKS IN AND CHANGES SNOW TO RAIN FROM SE TO NW.

RAIN CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
DRY WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FORM THE NW TONIGHT AND SETTLES
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH
AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...WITH SCA HEADLINES GRADUALLY
ENDING THROUGH THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE FRIDAY
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY AFTERNOON THE WIND WILL BECOME E/NE S OF
CAPE CHARLES WITH GENERALLY A S/SE DIRECTION N OF CAPE CHARLES.
SPEEDS WILL BE AOB 15KT. ADDITIONALLY...THIS LOW WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF SN...WHICH WILL REDUCE VSBY. AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NE
FRIDAY NIGHT A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-40KT OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 5-
8FT WITH 4-5 FT WAVES IN THE BAY. GALE FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY (4TH PERIOD). THESE WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NRN OCEAN ZONES. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN
CAPPED AT HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME. FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY AS
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES
ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NCZ012>014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NCZ015>017-030>032-102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR VAZ092-093-095>098-100-523>525.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM/TMG
NEAR TERM...MAS/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MPR/LSA
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 120316
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1016 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY MORNING...LIFTING
NORTHEAST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COASTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS
YEAR. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK TNGT WITH DRY CONDS...SOME INCREASING
CLOUDS LATE...AND LO TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR TEENS TO LWR 20S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CENTERS ~1030MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH
VALLEY. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE GULF STATES. COLD
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. WIND
CHILLS IN THE 20S UNDER A SUNNY SKY.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. WINDS DECOUPLE
ALLOWING FOR EXCEPTIONAL RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS EVENING AS
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT AS ATTENTION TURNS TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH. HEIGHT FALLS WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SC/NC
COAST BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF
THRU LATE TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE NC COAST FRI MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PUSHES OVER THE CAROLINAS. SHORTWAVE AND INCREASING WINDS
ALOFT WILL PROVIDE ADEQUATE UVM OVER AN AREA OF 280-285K ISENTROPIC
LIFT ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE
MODEST...BUT MIXING RATIOS PROGGED TO REACH 3.0 TO 4.0 G/KG. THERMAL
PROFILES INDICATE HIGH RH/ICE IN THE SNOW GROWTH LAYER ALONG WITH
ABUNDANT LIFT DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. THE NET
RESULT WILL BE INCREASING POPS THRU MID TO LATE MORNING FRI AS SNOW
SPREADS INTO THE REGION. PRECIP CONTINUES THRU THE AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW LIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. QUESTION BECOMES HOW FAR NW
THE PRECIP SPREADS FRI AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE SE
COUNTIES TO CATEGORICAL...TAPERING OFF THE CHANCE OVER THE NW
COUNTIES. WITH THE LUXURY OF COLD CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES...SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PREDOMINATE PTYPE THRU THE DURATION OF THE
EVENT. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE LATE FRIDAY NEAREST THE ALBEMARLE SOUND
WHERE A LITTLE SLEET MAY MIX WITH THE SNOW TOWARD THE END OF THE
EVENT. HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
WHERE BANDING FROM FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW IS INDICATED IN THE MODELS. 2-4 INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THAT
AREA...REQUIRING A WINTER STORM WARNING. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST INTO
HAMPTON ROADS AND THE LOWER PENINSULA AND EASTERN SHORE...SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF TO 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES IN EFFECT. PLEASE SEE LATEST WSW FOR MORE INFO. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS TAPER OFF TO 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH TOWARD THE TRI CITIES AND MD
ERN SHORE...THEN A DUSTING TO HALF AN INCH RICHMOND NORTH AND WEST.
SNOW COMES TO AN END FRI EVENING AS THE SFC LOW PUSHES WELL OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES THRU THE
REGION.

CLOSED UPPER LOW/ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR VORTEX DIGS OVER
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. ~1040MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
MIDWEST...USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDY SAT WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH (STRONGER NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE
EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS SAT FORECAST TO WARM ONLY INTO THE MID 20S NW
TO LOW 30S SE (-2 STD DEV) UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE TEENS...RESULTING IN A RAW/COLD/WINDY
DAY. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS SAT NIGHT.
WINDS DECOUPLE INLAND AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION...BUT WIND
CHILLS STILL FORECAST IN THE SINGLE DIGITS INLAND TO 0 TO 8 BELOW
NRN NECK TO THE ERN SHORE. THE HIGH CENTERS OVER THE LOCAL AREA
SUNDAY WITH NLY WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. SLIGHTLY COLDER SUN WITH
DECREASED MIXING. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 20S (-2 STD DEV)
UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ATTENTION
TURNING TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. THERE
REMAINS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS...ALTHOUGH
THE 11/12Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING SLOWER...AND WARMER FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. THE 11/12Z GFS CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PCPN MONDAY AS A NRN STREAM TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WOULD MAINLY FALL AS SN OR SN/IP...WITH A TRANSITION TO
RA CLOSER TO THE COAST BY AFTERNOON. SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT WOULD
GENERALLY RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO RA MONDAY NIGHT...ASIDE FROM THE
FAR NW WHERE MIXED PCPN COULD PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH AN
IN-SITU WEDGE IN PLACE. THE LATEST DATA SCOURS OUT THE WEDGE BY
AFTERNOON WITH P-TYPE BECOMING RA EVEN IN THE FAR NW. DRYING OCCURS
MIDWEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE
CLIPPING THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
OF COOLER AIR AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS MONDAY WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW 30S ALONG
AND W OF I-95...WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW 40S. TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY MONDAY EVENING AND BEGIN TO RISE
OVERNIGHT EVENTUALLY WARMING INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S...FOLLOWED BY
LOW 40S NE...TO UPPER 40S SW THURSDAY. MORNING LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. IN THE
MEANTIME...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL MOVE
INTO THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY MORNING.

SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTH AROUND MIDDAY. HAVE VSBY DROPPING
TO ONE HALF MILE IN THE AFTERNOON AT ECG ORF AND PHF. WENT CLOSE TO
LAV MOS AS MET HOLDS BACK ON TAKING VSBY INTO THE IFR RANGE. WITH
THE ACCUMULATING SNOW THAT IS EXPECTED (GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES)...
IFR SHOULD BE NO PROBLEM. SBY LOOKS TO GET SOME SNOW AS WELL BUT DID
NOT GO AS LOW WITH THE VSBY THERE AS LESS THAN ONE INCH OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED. LIGHT SNOW MAY FALL AT RIC BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK...GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP FRIDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY. VFR AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
PCPN DEVELOPS MONDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
SW. PCPN BEGINS AS SNOW UNDER A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUT THIS BREAKS
DOWN AND WARMER AIR WORKS IN AND CHANGES SNOW TO RAIN FROM SE TO NW.

RAIN CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
DRY WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FORM THE NW TONIGHT AND SETTLES
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH
AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...WITH SCA HEADLINES GRADUALLY
ENDING THROUGH THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE FRIDAY
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY AFTERNOON THE WIND WILL BECOME E/NE S OF
CAPE CHARLES WITH GENERALLY A S/SE DIRECTION N OF CAPE CHARLES.
SPEEDS WILL BE AOB 15KT. ADDITIONALLY...THIS LOW WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF SN...WHICH WILL REDUCE VSBY. AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NE
FRIDAY NIGHT A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-40KT OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 5-
8FT WITH 4-5 FT WAVES IN THE BAY. GALE FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY (4TH PERIOD). THESE WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NRN OCEAN ZONES. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN
CAPPED AT HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME. FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY AS
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES
ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NCZ012>014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NCZ015>017-030>032-102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR VAZ092-093-095>098-100-523>525.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM/TMG
NEAR TERM...MAS/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 120238
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
938 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE TO
THE EAST FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA AND CAUSE AN ARCTIC FRONT TO CROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE WEEKEND AND CREST OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE ARE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ALL BUT DISSIPATED AND NOW EXPECT A MAINLY
CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT. WIND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AND TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP.
SHOULD GET CLOSE TO ZERO IN PARTS OF E PA RADIATIORS PER GFS 2M
TEMPS. WESTERLY WINDS DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT LATE.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SUNNY, THEN INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE JAMES
BAY ARCTIC VORTEX DIVING SEWD...MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS UNTIL LATE IN
THE DAY. WINDS TURN SW AND THE UNSTABLE AND MOISTENING BOUNDARY
LAYER LAPSE RATES OVER THE STILL OPEN WATERS OF THE BAYS MAY YIELD
SOME BAY EFFECT FLURRIES LATE IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE, SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE WAA PATTERN IN PA COULD DEVELOP FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE POCONOS NEAR 5 PM. SW WIND.

50 50 BLENDED 12Z/11 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS. THIS WILL USHER
IN THE COLD WINDS WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING THROUGH THE TEENS IN
MOST AREAS AND REACHING THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
TEENS NORTH AND LOW 20S SOUTH. WIND CHILL VALUES MUCH OF THE DAY
WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH SUB-ZERO READINGS NORTH. WE HAVE
ISSUED A WIND CHILL WATCH FOR THE SRN POCONOS AND NW NJ FOR SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WHEN THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE OVER THE AREA.
WIND CHILL READINGS IN THESE AREAS WILL BE -25 TO -30 DEGREES. A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NE PA / NRN NJ
SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE  MON AND THEN TREND BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR
TUE/WED. THESE WARMER TEMPS WILL ARRIVE AT THE SAME TIME AS A WET
WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW. PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY
BEGIN MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. MANY OF THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE INDICATING ENOUGH OF A WARM-UP SO THAT MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN. IT LOOKS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF
THE PRECIPITATION INITIALLY COULD BE SNOW OR SOME SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN. WE WILL JUST HAVE RAIN/SNOW IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW WITH LIMITED
CONFID IN PLACEMENT OF ANY FROZEN PCPN.

THE STORM WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION NEXT WED AND MORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY AND LAST INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS THRU THE TAF PD WITH HIGH PRES. GUID SUGGESTS THERE CUD
BE A SNOW SHOWER FRI AFTN W THAT CUD LWR VSBYS/CIGS AT KRDG AND
KABE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WIND WILL BECOME MORE SWLY, AND WILL
REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT ONCE IT DECREASES OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL
LOWER AND THICKEN ON FRI


OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 25 KNOTS.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY THEN BECOMING MVFR AND
IFR BY EVENING WITH RAIN AND SNOW.

TUESDAY...WIDESPREAD LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WITH RAIN AND POSSIBLY SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
LOWERED GLW ON DEL BAY AND REPLACED WITH SCA. SCA MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED IN TIME FURTHER, DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THINGS COME
DOWN.

LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS OCCURRING AND CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED ON
THE BAY AS WELL AS THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

FRIDAY NO HEADLINE! A GOOD DAY TO FINISH UP ANY MARINE RELATED ACTIVITY.

OUTLOOK...
GALES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
WILL DECREASE BACK TO SCA CONDITIONS FOR AWHILE SUNDAY BEFORE
RETURNING TO SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. MORE SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN SEVERAL DEGREES
OF ZERO (WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 8 AM
SUNDAY EXCEPT COLDER KMPO (NEAR -12F). THIS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY
THE GFS/ECMWF 2M TEMPS CYCLICALLY SINCE AT LEAST THE 00Z/7
OPERATIONAL CYCLES. THEREFORE, BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD EQUALING OR
EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY THE 14TH WOULD BE KABE, KTTN, KPHL
AND KMPO.

SNOW COVER MAY HELP A BIT I-95 NORTHWESTWARD...AND WE`LL SEE
WHERE WE ARE WITH SNOW COVER BY THURSDAY EVENING. NEW DUSTINGS
APPEAR ON THE WAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

PLEASE NOTE... GUIDANCE IN PART IS BEING CLIMO BIASED HIGHER THAN
WHAT THE ONCOMING GFS/ECMWF LITERAL AIRMASS AND 2M TEMPS ARE INDICATING
FOR SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING IN THE URBAN AREAS SHOULD
BE ABOUT 25 COLDER THAN NORMAL. THAT MEANS GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR PHL
OF 5 AND 6 DEGREES APPEAR TOO WARM...ESPECIALLY WITH A NORMAL
PHILADELPHIA LOW ON SUNDAY OF 28.

HAVE SEEN THE 12Z/11 2M TEMPS FOR PHL...1 ABOVE RANGING DOWN TO
-11 AT KMPO AND AM LIKING THOSE VALUES AS WITHIN 2F OF THE
UPCOMING REALITY.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE
14TH, IF THEN.  THOSE HAVE BEEN ADDED RECENTLY BELOW.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH ----RER LOW MAX
---------------------- --------------------

ABE             8                         -1 IN 1979     14-1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979     13-1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979     14-1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979     13-1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

SO, THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY 30 BELOW IN
THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/NIERENBERG/O`HARA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KLWX 120236
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
936 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE
WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH NOW SITTING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. MID-
ATLANTIC SLOWLY COMING UNDER ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW THOUGH LONG-WAVE
TROUGH STILL OVER EASTERN N AMERICA. HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISING AND
BL MOISTURE STILL THINNING AS EVIDENT IN RECENT SATELLITE.
GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. THE GUSTY WINDS
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE REST OF THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THIS HAS BEEN A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED.

THE HIGH SLIPS TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. BASICALLY JUST A COLD
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS. WIND CHILLS WILL
BE LESS OF A CONCERN WITH THE DECREASING WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY WITH RETURN
FLOW BRINGING SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES (BUT STILL ON EITHER SIDE
OF FREEZING)...AS WELL AS INCREASING CLOUDS/MOISTURE. ONE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE ANOTHER TAKES SHAPE NEAR THE
CAROLINA COAST IN RESPONSE TO A SOUTHERN VORT MAX. MAJORITY OF
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE COASTAL LOW EFFECTS TO OUR SOUTHEAST...BUT DID
BUMP UP THE LOW END POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN MD.

THE MORE IMPORTANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR AREA WILL BE A PAIR OF
BOUNDARIES TRAILING THE NORTHERN LOW CENTER. INCREASING SIGNAL IN
MODEL GUIDANCE OF A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
FIRST BOUNDARY AND HAVE THUS INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AVAILABLE. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND
COVERAGE...WITH GUIDANCE TENDING TO FAVOR A LATER ARRIVAL...BUT
THERE REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR THESE SNOW SHOWERS TO REACH THE METRO
AREA DURING PORTIONS OF EVENING RUSH HOUR. WITH THE ANTECEDENT
COLD CONDITIONS...ANY SNOW WOULD STICK ON UNTREATED ROADS.
CERTAINLY A SITUATION TO PAY ATTENTION TO.

THIS WILL ALSO MARK THE BEGINNING OF A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE
SNOW...HEAVIEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BUT LASTING THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINTER WX ADVISORY POSSIBLE AS SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
EXPECTED.

SECOND BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND MARK THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDEST AIRMASS. EVEN THOUGH CHANCES DECREASE A
BIT...SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD STILL MAKE IT ACROSS ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS IN
MOST AREA AND WINDS INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH
BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS MAY NECESSITATE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ALSO OF NOTE IS THE SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE SURGE
JUST AFTER THE BOUNDARY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY RESULT IN A
BURST OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY CLOSE TO 45 MPH.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE STRETCH WITH 850
MB TEMPS BELOW -20C AND STIFF WINDS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE
IN THE TEENS AND 20S WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS...AND BELOW ZERO IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. WIND GUSTS OF AT
LEAST 30-40 MPH WILL OCCUR SATURDAY...AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA (I.E. 45-50 MPH). THE WINDS WILL ONLY DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY SATURDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILLS MAY FAIL TO RISE ABOVE +10F
ON SATURDAY IN MUCH OF THE AREA...AND FALL BELOW ZERO SATURDAY
NIGHT. WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA (-5F) WILL LIKELY BE MET OVER
MOST OF THE AREA...AND WIND CHILL WARNINGS (-25F) ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES.

OTHER ISSUE FOR SATURDAY WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
AND STREAMERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA. SNSQ PARAMETER
IN THE NAM AND GFS...AND EVEN 12Z GFS QPF OUTPUT...PLACE THE FAVORED
AREA ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MD INCLUDING BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A PRETTY QUICK EROSION OF AN
IMPRESSIVELY COLD AIRMASS BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. NORMALLY THIS TYPE OF QUICK EROSION WOULD FORCE SOME KIND OF
PRECIPITATION...AND AS SUCH A LOT OF THE GUIDANCE IS TRYING TO BRING
SOME PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL FORCE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...WHICH WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEAST NEAR OR OVER THE
AREA. GUIDANCE DIVERGES GREATLY ON SURFACE LOW TRACK AND HOW MUCH
COLD AIR IS LEFT IN PLACE. BEST CHANCE FOR PROLONGED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. EAST OF
THERE PRECIPITATION MAY VERY WELL CHANGE TO RAIN BY TUESDAY. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
AMOUNTS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

AN ACTIVE PATTERN MAY PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK BUT
DETAILS ARE FUZZY GIVEN THE UNCERTAIN EVOLUTION OF THE EARLY WEEK
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRIMARY ISSUE AFFECTING THE TERMINAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE
WIND. WNW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING
AND MID CIGS AROUND 5KFT HAVE DISSIPATED. VFR THROUGH THE BULK OF
FRIDAY WITH LIGHT SW WINDS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SNOW SHOWERS
AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
NOT HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT IN THE EXTENDED TAFS NOW...BUT
THESE COULD CAUSE BRIEF IMPACTS WITH SHORT PERIODS OF IFR CIGS AND
VIS.

WINDS INCREASE SHARPLY BEHIND FRONT...WITH NW GUSTS 25-35 KT
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY AND ONLY GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SATURDAY
NIGHT. COULD BE A FEW GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS. THERE WILL BE A
LINGERING THREAT OF ISOLD/SCT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY BWI/MTN.

SUB-VFR PSBL SUN NGT OR MON AS PRECIP DEVELOPS. WINDS LIGHT SUN
NGT BCMNG GNLY ELY MON.

&&

.MARINE...
W/NW WINDS CONTINUING TO GUST TO 20-25 KT THIS EVE ARE ONLY SLOWLY
DROPPING OFF. THE SCA OVER THE MORE PROTECTED WATERS WAS EXTENDED
TO 11 PM. WILL HAVE TO WATCH GUSTS AS IT MAY NEED ANOTHER
EXTENSION. STILL THINK WINDS SHOULD LIGHTEN BY MORNING. LIGHT SW
FLOW TO START FRIDAY BUT THAT WILL QUICKLY CHANGE DURING THE
EVENING AS ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. W/NW WINDS WILL INCREASE IMMEDIATELY. THIS MAY NEED TO
BE UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING GIVEN IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE SURGE JUST
BEHIND FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH IN THAT
OCCURRING JUST YET. GALES THEN APPEAR LIKELY SATURDAY AND A
PORTION OF SATURDAY NIGHT. THE STRONG WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES
OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A FREEZING
SPRAY THREAT.

WINDS DROP BELOW GALE RELATIVELY QUICKLY SUNDAY...AND
REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS/RCM
NEAR TERM...ADS/RCM
SHORT TERM...ADS/RCM
LONG TERM...DFH/RCM
AVIATION...ADS/DFH/RCM
MARINE...ADS/DFH/RCM



000
FXUS61 KLWX 120236
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
936 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE
WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH NOW SITTING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. MID-
ATLANTIC SLOWLY COMING UNDER ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW THOUGH LONG-WAVE
TROUGH STILL OVER EASTERN N AMERICA. HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISING AND
BL MOISTURE STILL THINNING AS EVIDENT IN RECENT SATELLITE.
GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. THE GUSTY WINDS
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE REST OF THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THIS HAS BEEN A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED.

THE HIGH SLIPS TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. BASICALLY JUST A COLD
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS. WIND CHILLS WILL
BE LESS OF A CONCERN WITH THE DECREASING WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY WITH RETURN
FLOW BRINGING SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES (BUT STILL ON EITHER SIDE
OF FREEZING)...AS WELL AS INCREASING CLOUDS/MOISTURE. ONE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE ANOTHER TAKES SHAPE NEAR THE
CAROLINA COAST IN RESPONSE TO A SOUTHERN VORT MAX. MAJORITY OF
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE COASTAL LOW EFFECTS TO OUR SOUTHEAST...BUT DID
BUMP UP THE LOW END POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN MD.

THE MORE IMPORTANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR AREA WILL BE A PAIR OF
BOUNDARIES TRAILING THE NORTHERN LOW CENTER. INCREASING SIGNAL IN
MODEL GUIDANCE OF A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
FIRST BOUNDARY AND HAVE THUS INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AVAILABLE. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND
COVERAGE...WITH GUIDANCE TENDING TO FAVOR A LATER ARRIVAL...BUT
THERE REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR THESE SNOW SHOWERS TO REACH THE METRO
AREA DURING PORTIONS OF EVENING RUSH HOUR. WITH THE ANTECEDENT
COLD CONDITIONS...ANY SNOW WOULD STICK ON UNTREATED ROADS.
CERTAINLY A SITUATION TO PAY ATTENTION TO.

THIS WILL ALSO MARK THE BEGINNING OF A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE
SNOW...HEAVIEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BUT LASTING THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINTER WX ADVISORY POSSIBLE AS SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
EXPECTED.

SECOND BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND MARK THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDEST AIRMASS. EVEN THOUGH CHANCES DECREASE A
BIT...SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD STILL MAKE IT ACROSS ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS IN
MOST AREA AND WINDS INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH
BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS MAY NECESSITATE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ALSO OF NOTE IS THE SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE SURGE
JUST AFTER THE BOUNDARY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY RESULT IN A
BURST OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY CLOSE TO 45 MPH.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE STRETCH WITH 850
MB TEMPS BELOW -20C AND STIFF WINDS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE
IN THE TEENS AND 20S WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS...AND BELOW ZERO IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. WIND GUSTS OF AT
LEAST 30-40 MPH WILL OCCUR SATURDAY...AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA (I.E. 45-50 MPH). THE WINDS WILL ONLY DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY SATURDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILLS MAY FAIL TO RISE ABOVE +10F
ON SATURDAY IN MUCH OF THE AREA...AND FALL BELOW ZERO SATURDAY
NIGHT. WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA (-5F) WILL LIKELY BE MET OVER
MOST OF THE AREA...AND WIND CHILL WARNINGS (-25F) ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES.

OTHER ISSUE FOR SATURDAY WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
AND STREAMERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA. SNSQ PARAMETER
IN THE NAM AND GFS...AND EVEN 12Z GFS QPF OUTPUT...PLACE THE FAVORED
AREA ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MD INCLUDING BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A PRETTY QUICK EROSION OF AN
IMPRESSIVELY COLD AIRMASS BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. NORMALLY THIS TYPE OF QUICK EROSION WOULD FORCE SOME KIND OF
PRECIPITATION...AND AS SUCH A LOT OF THE GUIDANCE IS TRYING TO BRING
SOME PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL FORCE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...WHICH WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEAST NEAR OR OVER THE
AREA. GUIDANCE DIVERGES GREATLY ON SURFACE LOW TRACK AND HOW MUCH
COLD AIR IS LEFT IN PLACE. BEST CHANCE FOR PROLONGED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. EAST OF
THERE PRECIPITATION MAY VERY WELL CHANGE TO RAIN BY TUESDAY. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
AMOUNTS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

AN ACTIVE PATTERN MAY PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK BUT
DETAILS ARE FUZZY GIVEN THE UNCERTAIN EVOLUTION OF THE EARLY WEEK
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRIMARY ISSUE AFFECTING THE TERMINAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE
WIND. WNW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING
AND MID CIGS AROUND 5KFT HAVE DISSIPATED. VFR THROUGH THE BULK OF
FRIDAY WITH LIGHT SW WINDS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SNOW SHOWERS
AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
NOT HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT IN THE EXTENDED TAFS NOW...BUT
THESE COULD CAUSE BRIEF IMPACTS WITH SHORT PERIODS OF IFR CIGS AND
VIS.

WINDS INCREASE SHARPLY BEHIND FRONT...WITH NW GUSTS 25-35 KT
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY AND ONLY GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SATURDAY
NIGHT. COULD BE A FEW GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS. THERE WILL BE A
LINGERING THREAT OF ISOLD/SCT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY BWI/MTN.

SUB-VFR PSBL SUN NGT OR MON AS PRECIP DEVELOPS. WINDS LIGHT SUN
NGT BCMNG GNLY ELY MON.

&&

.MARINE...
W/NW WINDS CONTINUING TO GUST TO 20-25 KT THIS EVE ARE ONLY SLOWLY
DROPPING OFF. THE SCA OVER THE MORE PROTECTED WATERS WAS EXTENDED
TO 11 PM. WILL HAVE TO WATCH GUSTS AS IT MAY NEED ANOTHER
EXTENSION. STILL THINK WINDS SHOULD LIGHTEN BY MORNING. LIGHT SW
FLOW TO START FRIDAY BUT THAT WILL QUICKLY CHANGE DURING THE
EVENING AS ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. W/NW WINDS WILL INCREASE IMMEDIATELY. THIS MAY NEED TO
BE UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING GIVEN IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE SURGE JUST
BEHIND FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH IN THAT
OCCURRING JUST YET. GALES THEN APPEAR LIKELY SATURDAY AND A
PORTION OF SATURDAY NIGHT. THE STRONG WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES
OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A FREEZING
SPRAY THREAT.

WINDS DROP BELOW GALE RELATIVELY QUICKLY SUNDAY...AND
REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS/RCM
NEAR TERM...ADS/RCM
SHORT TERM...ADS/RCM
LONG TERM...DFH/RCM
AVIATION...ADS/DFH/RCM
MARINE...ADS/DFH/RCM




000
FXUS61 KLWX 120236
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
936 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE
WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH NOW SITTING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. MID-
ATLANTIC SLOWLY COMING UNDER ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW THOUGH LONG-WAVE
TROUGH STILL OVER EASTERN N AMERICA. HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISING AND
BL MOISTURE STILL THINNING AS EVIDENT IN RECENT SATELLITE.
GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. THE GUSTY WINDS
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE REST OF THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THIS HAS BEEN A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED.

THE HIGH SLIPS TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. BASICALLY JUST A COLD
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS. WIND CHILLS WILL
BE LESS OF A CONCERN WITH THE DECREASING WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY WITH RETURN
FLOW BRINGING SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES (BUT STILL ON EITHER SIDE
OF FREEZING)...AS WELL AS INCREASING CLOUDS/MOISTURE. ONE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE ANOTHER TAKES SHAPE NEAR THE
CAROLINA COAST IN RESPONSE TO A SOUTHERN VORT MAX. MAJORITY OF
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE COASTAL LOW EFFECTS TO OUR SOUTHEAST...BUT DID
BUMP UP THE LOW END POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN MD.

THE MORE IMPORTANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR AREA WILL BE A PAIR OF
BOUNDARIES TRAILING THE NORTHERN LOW CENTER. INCREASING SIGNAL IN
MODEL GUIDANCE OF A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
FIRST BOUNDARY AND HAVE THUS INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AVAILABLE. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND
COVERAGE...WITH GUIDANCE TENDING TO FAVOR A LATER ARRIVAL...BUT
THERE REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR THESE SNOW SHOWERS TO REACH THE METRO
AREA DURING PORTIONS OF EVENING RUSH HOUR. WITH THE ANTECEDENT
COLD CONDITIONS...ANY SNOW WOULD STICK ON UNTREATED ROADS.
CERTAINLY A SITUATION TO PAY ATTENTION TO.

THIS WILL ALSO MARK THE BEGINNING OF A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE
SNOW...HEAVIEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BUT LASTING THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINTER WX ADVISORY POSSIBLE AS SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
EXPECTED.

SECOND BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND MARK THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDEST AIRMASS. EVEN THOUGH CHANCES DECREASE A
BIT...SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD STILL MAKE IT ACROSS ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS IN
MOST AREA AND WINDS INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH
BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS MAY NECESSITATE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ALSO OF NOTE IS THE SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE SURGE
JUST AFTER THE BOUNDARY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY RESULT IN A
BURST OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY CLOSE TO 45 MPH.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE STRETCH WITH 850
MB TEMPS BELOW -20C AND STIFF WINDS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE
IN THE TEENS AND 20S WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS...AND BELOW ZERO IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. WIND GUSTS OF AT
LEAST 30-40 MPH WILL OCCUR SATURDAY...AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA (I.E. 45-50 MPH). THE WINDS WILL ONLY DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY SATURDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILLS MAY FAIL TO RISE ABOVE +10F
ON SATURDAY IN MUCH OF THE AREA...AND FALL BELOW ZERO SATURDAY
NIGHT. WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA (-5F) WILL LIKELY BE MET OVER
MOST OF THE AREA...AND WIND CHILL WARNINGS (-25F) ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES.

OTHER ISSUE FOR SATURDAY WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
AND STREAMERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA. SNSQ PARAMETER
IN THE NAM AND GFS...AND EVEN 12Z GFS QPF OUTPUT...PLACE THE FAVORED
AREA ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MD INCLUDING BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A PRETTY QUICK EROSION OF AN
IMPRESSIVELY COLD AIRMASS BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. NORMALLY THIS TYPE OF QUICK EROSION WOULD FORCE SOME KIND OF
PRECIPITATION...AND AS SUCH A LOT OF THE GUIDANCE IS TRYING TO BRING
SOME PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL FORCE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...WHICH WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEAST NEAR OR OVER THE
AREA. GUIDANCE DIVERGES GREATLY ON SURFACE LOW TRACK AND HOW MUCH
COLD AIR IS LEFT IN PLACE. BEST CHANCE FOR PROLONGED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. EAST OF
THERE PRECIPITATION MAY VERY WELL CHANGE TO RAIN BY TUESDAY. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
AMOUNTS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

AN ACTIVE PATTERN MAY PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK BUT
DETAILS ARE FUZZY GIVEN THE UNCERTAIN EVOLUTION OF THE EARLY WEEK
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRIMARY ISSUE AFFECTING THE TERMINAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE
WIND. WNW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING
AND MID CIGS AROUND 5KFT HAVE DISSIPATED. VFR THROUGH THE BULK OF
FRIDAY WITH LIGHT SW WINDS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SNOW SHOWERS
AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
NOT HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT IN THE EXTENDED TAFS NOW...BUT
THESE COULD CAUSE BRIEF IMPACTS WITH SHORT PERIODS OF IFR CIGS AND
VIS.

WINDS INCREASE SHARPLY BEHIND FRONT...WITH NW GUSTS 25-35 KT
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY AND ONLY GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SATURDAY
NIGHT. COULD BE A FEW GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS. THERE WILL BE A
LINGERING THREAT OF ISOLD/SCT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY BWI/MTN.

SUB-VFR PSBL SUN NGT OR MON AS PRECIP DEVELOPS. WINDS LIGHT SUN
NGT BCMNG GNLY ELY MON.

&&

.MARINE...
W/NW WINDS CONTINUING TO GUST TO 20-25 KT THIS EVE ARE ONLY SLOWLY
DROPPING OFF. THE SCA OVER THE MORE PROTECTED WATERS WAS EXTENDED
TO 11 PM. WILL HAVE TO WATCH GUSTS AS IT MAY NEED ANOTHER
EXTENSION. STILL THINK WINDS SHOULD LIGHTEN BY MORNING. LIGHT SW
FLOW TO START FRIDAY BUT THAT WILL QUICKLY CHANGE DURING THE
EVENING AS ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. W/NW WINDS WILL INCREASE IMMEDIATELY. THIS MAY NEED TO
BE UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING GIVEN IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE SURGE JUST
BEHIND FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH IN THAT
OCCURRING JUST YET. GALES THEN APPEAR LIKELY SATURDAY AND A
PORTION OF SATURDAY NIGHT. THE STRONG WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES
OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A FREEZING
SPRAY THREAT.

WINDS DROP BELOW GALE RELATIVELY QUICKLY SUNDAY...AND
REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS/RCM
NEAR TERM...ADS/RCM
SHORT TERM...ADS/RCM
LONG TERM...DFH/RCM
AVIATION...ADS/DFH/RCM
MARINE...ADS/DFH/RCM




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 120225
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
925 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING MORE SNOW CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WITH 930PM UPDATE...APPEARS THAT NEARLY ALL SNOW HAS COME TO AN
END FOR THE EVENING...BUT HAVE STILL KEEP SOME FLURRIES IN THE
FORECAST IN CASE THE RADAR IS OVERSHOOTING ANY REMAINING SNOW.
STILL NOT SURE JUST HOW LOW TEMPERATURES MIGHT DROP TONIGHT.
DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM NEAR 0 TO AS HIGH AS 10 ABOVE...WHICH SHOULD
BE THE LOWER BOUND FOR TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. WITH SKIES CLEARING
OUT AND WINDS REMAINING RELATIVELY LIGHT...THOUGHT THAT
TEMPERATURES WOULD HAVE BEEN DROPPING MORE THAN THEY HAVE SO FAR.
DESPITE THIS...STILL DROPPED OVERNIGHT LOWS ANOTHER DEGREE OR
TWO...ANTICIPATING THAT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL FOR A TIME BEFORE
HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE LWR OH VLY/MID ATLANTIC
RGN FRI BRINGING INCRG LGT SNOW CHCS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...IS EXPD TO CROSS THE RGN FRI EVE WITH
BETTER CHCS FOR SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
UNDER UPR TROFG AND LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT LATER FRI NGT AND
SAT...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPD TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA AS DRY ARCTIC AIR RESULTS IN UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE CONTENT
IN THE SNOW GROWTH RGN. BLDG HIGH PRESSURE SAT NGT/SUN SHOULD
BRING DRY WEATHER.

WIND WITH SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT AND COLD TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT
THRU SOMETIME SAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADVISORY LVL WIND CHILLS
ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA. DIMINISHING WINDS MAY PROVIDE FOR LESSER
CHCS OF WIND CHILL ADVISORIES SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...THOUGH TEMPS NR
OR BELOW ZERO ARE EXPD. TEMPS WERE MODIFIED SLIGHTLY FROM
SUPERBLENDED GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES MOVE TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES
TO START THE WEEK. MODELS HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS FOR SOUTHERN
STREAM STORM SYSTEM INTENSIFYING AND MOVING NORTHEAST LATER
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WPC PROGS AND
THE SUPERBLEND...WITH HIGHEST POPS INTO THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY WITH
CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE SEASONAL NORM. HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO GIVE A DRY DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE BY MID EVENING.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR WILL BE WITH LOW
PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 120225
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
925 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING MORE SNOW CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WITH 930PM UPDATE...APPEARS THAT NEARLY ALL SNOW HAS COME TO AN
END FOR THE EVENING...BUT HAVE STILL KEEP SOME FLURRIES IN THE
FORECAST IN CASE THE RADAR IS OVERSHOOTING ANY REMAINING SNOW.
STILL NOT SURE JUST HOW LOW TEMPERATURES MIGHT DROP TONIGHT.
DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM NEAR 0 TO AS HIGH AS 10 ABOVE...WHICH SHOULD
BE THE LOWER BOUND FOR TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. WITH SKIES CLEARING
OUT AND WINDS REMAINING RELATIVELY LIGHT...THOUGHT THAT
TEMPERATURES WOULD HAVE BEEN DROPPING MORE THAN THEY HAVE SO FAR.
DESPITE THIS...STILL DROPPED OVERNIGHT LOWS ANOTHER DEGREE OR
TWO...ANTICIPATING THAT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL FOR A TIME BEFORE
HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE LWR OH VLY/MID ATLANTIC
RGN FRI BRINGING INCRG LGT SNOW CHCS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...IS EXPD TO CROSS THE RGN FRI EVE WITH
BETTER CHCS FOR SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
UNDER UPR TROFG AND LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT LATER FRI NGT AND
SAT...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPD TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA AS DRY ARCTIC AIR RESULTS IN UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE CONTENT
IN THE SNOW GROWTH RGN. BLDG HIGH PRESSURE SAT NGT/SUN SHOULD
BRING DRY WEATHER.

WIND WITH SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT AND COLD TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT
THRU SOMETIME SAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADVISORY LVL WIND CHILLS
ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA. DIMINISHING WINDS MAY PROVIDE FOR LESSER
CHCS OF WIND CHILL ADVISORIES SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...THOUGH TEMPS NR
OR BELOW ZERO ARE EXPD. TEMPS WERE MODIFIED SLIGHTLY FROM
SUPERBLENDED GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES MOVE TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES
TO START THE WEEK. MODELS HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS FOR SOUTHERN
STREAM STORM SYSTEM INTENSIFYING AND MOVING NORTHEAST LATER
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WPC PROGS AND
THE SUPERBLEND...WITH HIGHEST POPS INTO THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY WITH
CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE SEASONAL NORM. HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO GIVE A DRY DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE BY MID EVENING.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR WILL BE WITH LOW
PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 120225
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
925 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING MORE SNOW CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WITH 930PM UPDATE...APPEARS THAT NEARLY ALL SNOW HAS COME TO AN
END FOR THE EVENING...BUT HAVE STILL KEEP SOME FLURRIES IN THE
FORECAST IN CASE THE RADAR IS OVERSHOOTING ANY REMAINING SNOW.
STILL NOT SURE JUST HOW LOW TEMPERATURES MIGHT DROP TONIGHT.
DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM NEAR 0 TO AS HIGH AS 10 ABOVE...WHICH SHOULD
BE THE LOWER BOUND FOR TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. WITH SKIES CLEARING
OUT AND WINDS REMAINING RELATIVELY LIGHT...THOUGHT THAT
TEMPERATURES WOULD HAVE BEEN DROPPING MORE THAN THEY HAVE SO FAR.
DESPITE THIS...STILL DROPPED OVERNIGHT LOWS ANOTHER DEGREE OR
TWO...ANTICIPATING THAT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL FOR A TIME BEFORE
HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE LWR OH VLY/MID ATLANTIC
RGN FRI BRINGING INCRG LGT SNOW CHCS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...IS EXPD TO CROSS THE RGN FRI EVE WITH
BETTER CHCS FOR SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
UNDER UPR TROFG AND LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT LATER FRI NGT AND
SAT...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPD TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA AS DRY ARCTIC AIR RESULTS IN UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE CONTENT
IN THE SNOW GROWTH RGN. BLDG HIGH PRESSURE SAT NGT/SUN SHOULD
BRING DRY WEATHER.

WIND WITH SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT AND COLD TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT
THRU SOMETIME SAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADVISORY LVL WIND CHILLS
ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA. DIMINISHING WINDS MAY PROVIDE FOR LESSER
CHCS OF WIND CHILL ADVISORIES SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...THOUGH TEMPS NR
OR BELOW ZERO ARE EXPD. TEMPS WERE MODIFIED SLIGHTLY FROM
SUPERBLENDED GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES MOVE TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES
TO START THE WEEK. MODELS HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS FOR SOUTHERN
STREAM STORM SYSTEM INTENSIFYING AND MOVING NORTHEAST LATER
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WPC PROGS AND
THE SUPERBLEND...WITH HIGHEST POPS INTO THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY WITH
CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE SEASONAL NORM. HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO GIVE A DRY DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE BY MID EVENING.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR WILL BE WITH LOW
PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 120059
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
759 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY MORNING...LIFTING
NORTHEAST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COASTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS
YEAR. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CENTERS ~1030MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH
VALLEY. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE GULF STATES. COLD
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. WIND
CHILLS IN THE 20S UNDER A SUNNY SKY.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. WINDS DECOUPLE
ALLOWING FOR EXCEPTIONAL RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS EVENING AS
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT AS ATTENTION TURNS TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH. HEIGHT FALLS WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SC/NC
COAST BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF
THRU LATE TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE NC COAST FRI MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PUSHES OVER THE CAROLINAS. SHORTWAVE AND INCREASING WINDS
ALOFT WILL PROVIDE ADEQUATE UVM OVER AN AREA OF 280-285K ISENTROPIC
LIFT ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE
MODEST...BUT MIXING RATIOS PROGGED TO REACH 3.0 TO 4.0 G/KG. THERMAL
PROFILES INDICATE HIGH RH/ICE IN THE SNOW GROWTH LAYER ALONG WITH
ABUNDANT LIFT DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. THE NET
RESULT WILL BE INCREASING POPS THRU MID TO LATE MORNING FRI AS SNOW
SPREADS INTO THE REGION. PRECIP CONTINUES THRU THE AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW LIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. QUESTION BECOMES HOW FAR NW
THE PRECIP SPREADS FRI AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE SE
COUNTIES TO CATEGORICAL...TAPERING OFF THE CHANCE OVER THE NW
COUNTIES. WITH THE LUXURY OF COLD CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES...SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PREDOMINATE PTYPE THRU THE DURATION OF THE
EVENT. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE LATE FRIDAY NEAREST THE ALBEMARLE SOUND
WHERE A LITTLE SLEET MAY MIX WITH THE SNOW TOWARD THE END OF THE
EVENT. HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
WHERE BANDING FROM FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW IS INDICATED IN THE MODELS. 2-4 INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THAT
AREA...REQUIRING A WINTER STORM WARNING. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST INTO
HAMPTON ROADS AND THE LOWER PENINSULA AND EASTERN SHORE...SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF TO 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES IN EFFECT. PLEASE SEE LATEST WSW FOR MORE INFO. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS TAPER OFF TO 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH TOWARD THE TRI CITIES AND MD
ERN SHORE...THEN A DUSTING TO HALF AN INCH RICHMOND NORTH AND WEST.
SNOW COMES TO AN END FRI EVENING AS THE SFC LOW PUSHES WELL OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES THRU THE
REGION.

CLOSED UPPER LOW/ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR VORTEX DIGS OVER
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. ~1040MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
MIDWEST...USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDY SAT WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH (STRONGER NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE
EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS SAT FORECAST TO WARM ONLY INTO THE MID 20S NW
TO LOW 30S SE (-2 STD DEV) UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE TEENS...RESULTING IN A RAW/COLD/WINDY
DAY. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS SAT NIGHT.
WINDS DECOUPLE INLAND AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION...BUT WIND
CHILLS STILL FORECAST IN THE SINGLE DIGITS INLAND TO 0 TO 8 BELOW
NRN NECK TO THE ERN SHORE. THE HIGH CENTERS OVER THE LOCAL AREA
SUNDAY WITH NLY WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. SLIGHTLY COLDER SUN WITH
DECREASED MIXING. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 20S (-2 STD DEV)
UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ATTENTION
TURNING TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. THERE
REMAINS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS...ALTHOUGH
THE 11/12Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING SLOWER...AND WARMER FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. THE 11/12Z GFS CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PCPN MONDAY AS A NRN STREAM TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WOULD MAINLY FALL AS SN OR SN/IP...WITH A TRANSITION TO
RA CLOSER TO THE COAST BY AFTERNOON. SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT WOULD
GENERALLY RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO RA MONDAY NIGHT...ASIDE FROM THE
FAR NW WHERE MIXED PCPN COULD PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH AN
IN-SITU WEDGE IN PLACE. THE LATEST DATA SCOURS OUT THE WEDGE BY
AFTERNOON WITH P-TYPE BECOMING RA EVEN IN THE FAR NW. DRYING OCCURS
MIDWEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE
CLIPPING THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
OF COOLER AIR AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS MONDAY WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW 30S ALONG
AND W OF I-95...WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW 40S. TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY MONDAY EVENING AND BEGIN TO RISE
OVERNIGHT EVENTUALLY WARMING INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S...FOLLOWED BY
LOW 40S NE...TO UPPER 40S SW THURSDAY. MORNING LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. IN THE
MEANTIME...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL MOVE
INTO THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY MORNING.

SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTH AROUND MIDDAY. HAVE VSBY DROPPING
TO ONE HALF MILE IN THE AFTERNOON AT ECG ORF AND PHF. WENT CLOSE TO
LAV MOS AS MET HOLDS BACK ON TAKING VSBY INTO THE IFR RANGE. WITH
THE ACCUMULATING SNOW THAT IS EXPECTED (GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES)...
IFR SHOULD BE NO PROBLEM. SBY LOOKS TO GET SOME SNOW AS WELL BUT DID
NOT GO AS LOW WITH THE VSBY THERE AS LESS THAN ONE INCH OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED. LIGHT SNOW MAY FALL AT RIC BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK...GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP FRIDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY. VFR AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
PCPN DEVELOPS MONDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
SW. PCPN BEGINS AS SNOW UNDER A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUT THIS BREAKS
DOWN AND WARMER AIR WORKS IN AND CHANGES SNOW TO RAIN FROM SE TO NW.

RAIN CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
DRY WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FORM THE NW TONIGHT AND SETTLES
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH
AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...WITH SCA HEADLINES GRADUALLY
ENDING THROUGH THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE FRIDAY
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY AFTERNOON THE WIND WILL BECOME E/NE S OF
CAPE CHARLES WITH GENERALLY A S/SE DIRECTION N OF CAPE CHARLES.
SPEEDS WILL BE AOB 15KT. ADDITIONALLY...THIS LOW WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF SN...WHICH WILL REDUCE VSBY. AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NE
FRIDAY NIGHT A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-40KT OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 5-
8FT WITH 4-5 FT WAVES IN THE BAY. GALE FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY (4TH PERIOD). THESE WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NRN OCEAN ZONES. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN
CAPPED AT HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME. FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY AS
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES
ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NCZ012>014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NCZ015>017-030>032-102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR VAZ092-093-095>098-100-523>525.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM/TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 120059
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
759 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY MORNING...LIFTING
NORTHEAST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COASTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS
YEAR. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CENTERS ~1030MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH
VALLEY. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE GULF STATES. COLD
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. WIND
CHILLS IN THE 20S UNDER A SUNNY SKY.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. WINDS DECOUPLE
ALLOWING FOR EXCEPTIONAL RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS EVENING AS
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT AS ATTENTION TURNS TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH. HEIGHT FALLS WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SC/NC
COAST BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF
THRU LATE TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE NC COAST FRI MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PUSHES OVER THE CAROLINAS. SHORTWAVE AND INCREASING WINDS
ALOFT WILL PROVIDE ADEQUATE UVM OVER AN AREA OF 280-285K ISENTROPIC
LIFT ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE
MODEST...BUT MIXING RATIOS PROGGED TO REACH 3.0 TO 4.0 G/KG. THERMAL
PROFILES INDICATE HIGH RH/ICE IN THE SNOW GROWTH LAYER ALONG WITH
ABUNDANT LIFT DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. THE NET
RESULT WILL BE INCREASING POPS THRU MID TO LATE MORNING FRI AS SNOW
SPREADS INTO THE REGION. PRECIP CONTINUES THRU THE AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW LIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. QUESTION BECOMES HOW FAR NW
THE PRECIP SPREADS FRI AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE SE
COUNTIES TO CATEGORICAL...TAPERING OFF THE CHANCE OVER THE NW
COUNTIES. WITH THE LUXURY OF COLD CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES...SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PREDOMINATE PTYPE THRU THE DURATION OF THE
EVENT. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE LATE FRIDAY NEAREST THE ALBEMARLE SOUND
WHERE A LITTLE SLEET MAY MIX WITH THE SNOW TOWARD THE END OF THE
EVENT. HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
WHERE BANDING FROM FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW IS INDICATED IN THE MODELS. 2-4 INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THAT
AREA...REQUIRING A WINTER STORM WARNING. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST INTO
HAMPTON ROADS AND THE LOWER PENINSULA AND EASTERN SHORE...SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF TO 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES IN EFFECT. PLEASE SEE LATEST WSW FOR MORE INFO. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS TAPER OFF TO 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH TOWARD THE TRI CITIES AND MD
ERN SHORE...THEN A DUSTING TO HALF AN INCH RICHMOND NORTH AND WEST.
SNOW COMES TO AN END FRI EVENING AS THE SFC LOW PUSHES WELL OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES THRU THE
REGION.

CLOSED UPPER LOW/ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR VORTEX DIGS OVER
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. ~1040MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
MIDWEST...USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDY SAT WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH (STRONGER NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE
EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS SAT FORECAST TO WARM ONLY INTO THE MID 20S NW
TO LOW 30S SE (-2 STD DEV) UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE TEENS...RESULTING IN A RAW/COLD/WINDY
DAY. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS SAT NIGHT.
WINDS DECOUPLE INLAND AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION...BUT WIND
CHILLS STILL FORECAST IN THE SINGLE DIGITS INLAND TO 0 TO 8 BELOW
NRN NECK TO THE ERN SHORE. THE HIGH CENTERS OVER THE LOCAL AREA
SUNDAY WITH NLY WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. SLIGHTLY COLDER SUN WITH
DECREASED MIXING. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 20S (-2 STD DEV)
UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ATTENTION
TURNING TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. THERE
REMAINS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS...ALTHOUGH
THE 11/12Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING SLOWER...AND WARMER FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. THE 11/12Z GFS CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PCPN MONDAY AS A NRN STREAM TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WOULD MAINLY FALL AS SN OR SN/IP...WITH A TRANSITION TO
RA CLOSER TO THE COAST BY AFTERNOON. SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT WOULD
GENERALLY RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO RA MONDAY NIGHT...ASIDE FROM THE
FAR NW WHERE MIXED PCPN COULD PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH AN
IN-SITU WEDGE IN PLACE. THE LATEST DATA SCOURS OUT THE WEDGE BY
AFTERNOON WITH P-TYPE BECOMING RA EVEN IN THE FAR NW. DRYING OCCURS
MIDWEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE
CLIPPING THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
OF COOLER AIR AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS MONDAY WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW 30S ALONG
AND W OF I-95...WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW 40S. TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY MONDAY EVENING AND BEGIN TO RISE
OVERNIGHT EVENTUALLY WARMING INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S...FOLLOWED BY
LOW 40S NE...TO UPPER 40S SW THURSDAY. MORNING LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. IN THE
MEANTIME...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL MOVE
INTO THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY MORNING.

SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTH AROUND MIDDAY. HAVE VSBY DROPPING
TO ONE HALF MILE IN THE AFTERNOON AT ECG ORF AND PHF. WENT CLOSE TO
LAV MOS AS MET HOLDS BACK ON TAKING VSBY INTO THE IFR RANGE. WITH
THE ACCUMULATING SNOW THAT IS EXPECTED (GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES)...
IFR SHOULD BE NO PROBLEM. SBY LOOKS TO GET SOME SNOW AS WELL BUT DID
NOT GO AS LOW WITH THE VSBY THERE AS LESS THAN ONE INCH OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED. LIGHT SNOW MAY FALL AT RIC BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK...GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP FRIDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY. VFR AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
PCPN DEVELOPS MONDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
SW. PCPN BEGINS AS SNOW UNDER A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUT THIS BREAKS
DOWN AND WARMER AIR WORKS IN AND CHANGES SNOW TO RAIN FROM SE TO NW.

RAIN CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
DRY WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FORM THE NW TONIGHT AND SETTLES
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH
AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...WITH SCA HEADLINES GRADUALLY
ENDING THROUGH THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE FRIDAY
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY AFTERNOON THE WIND WILL BECOME E/NE S OF
CAPE CHARLES WITH GENERALLY A S/SE DIRECTION N OF CAPE CHARLES.
SPEEDS WILL BE AOB 15KT. ADDITIONALLY...THIS LOW WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF SN...WHICH WILL REDUCE VSBY. AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NE
FRIDAY NIGHT A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-40KT OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 5-
8FT WITH 4-5 FT WAVES IN THE BAY. GALE FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY (4TH PERIOD). THESE WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NRN OCEAN ZONES. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN
CAPPED AT HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME. FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY AS
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES
ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NCZ012>014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NCZ015>017-030>032-102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR VAZ092-093-095>098-100-523>525.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM/TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 112335
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
635 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SNOW CHANCES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH 6PM UPDATE...TWEAKED HOURLY POPS AND TEMPERATURES...KEEPING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST SLIGHTLY LONGER FOR THE
TIER OF COUNTIES JUST NORTH OF PITTSBURGH WHERE ECHOES HAVE HELD
ON THE LONGEST. ALTHOUGH THE VERY COLD AIR IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION UNTIL TOMORROW NIGHT...LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES COULD PLUMMET ALONG INTERSTATE 80 IF SKIES MANAGE TO
CLEAR OUT. THINK THE CLOUDS WILL HANG IN LONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT
THIS FROM HAPPENING...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SCATTERED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF THRU THE
EVE AS MDL PROGGED AND OBSERVED UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW LWRG TEMP
INVERSIONS...AND WKNG LAPSE RATES. BLDG HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
BRING CLRG SKIES TONIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD AVG AROUND 15 DEG BELOW
SEASONAL LVLS USING THE LATEST NR TERM CONSENSUS BLENDED
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE LWR OH VLY/MID ATLANTIC
RGN FRI BRINGING INCRG LGT SNOW CHCS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...IS EXPD TO CROSS THE RGN FRI EVE WITH
BETTER CHCS FOR SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
UNDER UPR TROFG AND LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT LATER FRI NGT AND
SAT...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPD TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA AS DRY ARCTIC AIR RESULTS IN UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE CONTENT
IN THE SNOW GROWTH RGN. BLDG HIGH PRESSURE SAT NGT/SUN SHOULD
BRING DRY WEATHER.

WIND WITH SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT AND COLD TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT
THRU SOMETIME SAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADVISORY LVL WIND CHILLS
ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA. DIMINISHING WINDS MAY PROVIDE FOR LESSER
CHCS OF WIND CHILL ADVISORIES SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...THOUGH TEMPS NR
OR BELOW ZERO ARE EXPD. TEMPS WERE MODIFIED SLIGHTLY FROM
SUPERBLENDED GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES MOVE TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES
TO START THE WEEK. MODELS HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS FOR SOUTHERN
STREAM STORM SYSTEM INTENSIFYING AND MOVING NORTHEAST LATER
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WPC PROGS AND
THE SUPERBLEND...WITH HIGHEST POPS INTO THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY WITH
CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE SEASONAL NORM. HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO GIVE A DRY DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND FLIGHT
RESTRICTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY
MID EVENING.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR WILL BE WITH LOW
PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 112335
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
635 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SNOW CHANCES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH 6PM UPDATE...TWEAKED HOURLY POPS AND TEMPERATURES...KEEPING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST SLIGHTLY LONGER FOR THE
TIER OF COUNTIES JUST NORTH OF PITTSBURGH WHERE ECHOES HAVE HELD
ON THE LONGEST. ALTHOUGH THE VERY COLD AIR IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION UNTIL TOMORROW NIGHT...LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES COULD PLUMMET ALONG INTERSTATE 80 IF SKIES MANAGE TO
CLEAR OUT. THINK THE CLOUDS WILL HANG IN LONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT
THIS FROM HAPPENING...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SCATTERED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF THRU THE
EVE AS MDL PROGGED AND OBSERVED UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW LWRG TEMP
INVERSIONS...AND WKNG LAPSE RATES. BLDG HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
BRING CLRG SKIES TONIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD AVG AROUND 15 DEG BELOW
SEASONAL LVLS USING THE LATEST NR TERM CONSENSUS BLENDED
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE LWR OH VLY/MID ATLANTIC
RGN FRI BRINGING INCRG LGT SNOW CHCS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...IS EXPD TO CROSS THE RGN FRI EVE WITH
BETTER CHCS FOR SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
UNDER UPR TROFG AND LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT LATER FRI NGT AND
SAT...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPD TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA AS DRY ARCTIC AIR RESULTS IN UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE CONTENT
IN THE SNOW GROWTH RGN. BLDG HIGH PRESSURE SAT NGT/SUN SHOULD
BRING DRY WEATHER.

WIND WITH SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT AND COLD TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT
THRU SOMETIME SAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADVISORY LVL WIND CHILLS
ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA. DIMINISHING WINDS MAY PROVIDE FOR LESSER
CHCS OF WIND CHILL ADVISORIES SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...THOUGH TEMPS NR
OR BELOW ZERO ARE EXPD. TEMPS WERE MODIFIED SLIGHTLY FROM
SUPERBLENDED GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES MOVE TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES
TO START THE WEEK. MODELS HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS FOR SOUTHERN
STREAM STORM SYSTEM INTENSIFYING AND MOVING NORTHEAST LATER
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WPC PROGS AND
THE SUPERBLEND...WITH HIGHEST POPS INTO THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY WITH
CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE SEASONAL NORM. HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO GIVE A DRY DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND FLIGHT
RESTRICTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY
MID EVENING.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR WILL BE WITH LOW
PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 112335
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
635 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SNOW CHANCES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH 6PM UPDATE...TWEAKED HOURLY POPS AND TEMPERATURES...KEEPING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST SLIGHTLY LONGER FOR THE
TIER OF COUNTIES JUST NORTH OF PITTSBURGH WHERE ECHOES HAVE HELD
ON THE LONGEST. ALTHOUGH THE VERY COLD AIR IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION UNTIL TOMORROW NIGHT...LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES COULD PLUMMET ALONG INTERSTATE 80 IF SKIES MANAGE TO
CLEAR OUT. THINK THE CLOUDS WILL HANG IN LONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT
THIS FROM HAPPENING...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SCATTERED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF THRU THE
EVE AS MDL PROGGED AND OBSERVED UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW LWRG TEMP
INVERSIONS...AND WKNG LAPSE RATES. BLDG HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
BRING CLRG SKIES TONIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD AVG AROUND 15 DEG BELOW
SEASONAL LVLS USING THE LATEST NR TERM CONSENSUS BLENDED
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE LWR OH VLY/MID ATLANTIC
RGN FRI BRINGING INCRG LGT SNOW CHCS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...IS EXPD TO CROSS THE RGN FRI EVE WITH
BETTER CHCS FOR SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
UNDER UPR TROFG AND LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT LATER FRI NGT AND
SAT...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPD TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA AS DRY ARCTIC AIR RESULTS IN UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE CONTENT
IN THE SNOW GROWTH RGN. BLDG HIGH PRESSURE SAT NGT/SUN SHOULD
BRING DRY WEATHER.

WIND WITH SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT AND COLD TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT
THRU SOMETIME SAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADVISORY LVL WIND CHILLS
ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA. DIMINISHING WINDS MAY PROVIDE FOR LESSER
CHCS OF WIND CHILL ADVISORIES SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...THOUGH TEMPS NR
OR BELOW ZERO ARE EXPD. TEMPS WERE MODIFIED SLIGHTLY FROM
SUPERBLENDED GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES MOVE TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES
TO START THE WEEK. MODELS HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS FOR SOUTHERN
STREAM STORM SYSTEM INTENSIFYING AND MOVING NORTHEAST LATER
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WPC PROGS AND
THE SUPERBLEND...WITH HIGHEST POPS INTO THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY WITH
CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE SEASONAL NORM. HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO GIVE A DRY DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND FLIGHT
RESTRICTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY
MID EVENING.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR WILL BE WITH LOW
PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 112259
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
559 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY MORNING...LIFTING
NORTHEAST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COASTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS
YEAR. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CENTERS ~1030MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH
VALLEY. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE GULF STATES. COLD
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. WIND
CHILLS IN THE 20S UNDER A SUNNY SKY.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. WINDS DECOUPLE
ALLOWING FOR EXCEPTIONAL RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS EVENING AS
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT AS ATTENTION TURNS TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH. HEIGHT FALLS WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SC/NC
COAST BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF
THRU LATE TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE NC COAST FRI MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PUSHES OVER THE CAROLINAS. SHORTWAVE AND INCREASING WINDS
ALOFT WILL PROVIDE ADEQUATE UVM OVER AN AREA OF 280-285K ISENTROPIC
LIFT ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE
MODEST...BUT MIXING RATIOS PROGGED TO REACH 3.0 TO 4.0 G/KG. THERMAL
PROFILES INDICATE HIGH RH/ICE IN THE SNOW GROWTH LAYER ALONG WITH
ABUNDANT LIFT DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. THE NET
RESULT WILL BE INCREASING POPS THRU MID TO LATE MORNING FRI AS SNOW
SPREADS INTO THE REGION. PRECIP CONTINUES THRU THE AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW LIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. QUESTION BECOMES HOW FAR NW
THE PRECIP SPREADS FRI AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE SE
COUNTIES TO CATEGORICAL...TAPERING OFF THE CHANCE OVER THE NW
COUNTIES. WITH THE LUXURY OF COLD CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES...SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PREDOMINATE PTYPE THRU THE DURATION OF THE
EVENT. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE LATE FRIDAY NEAREST THE ALBEMARLE SOUND
WHERE A LITTLE SLEET MAY MIX WITH THE SNOW TOWARD THE END OF THE
EVENT. HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
WHERE BANDING FROM FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW IS INDICATED IN THE MODELS. 2-4 INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THAT
AREA...REQUIRING A WINTER STORM WARNING. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST INTO
HAMPTON ROADS AND THE LOWER PENINSULA AND EASTERN SHORE...SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF TO 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES IN EFFECT. PLEASE SEE LATEST WSW FOR MORE INFO. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS TAPER OFF TO 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH TOWARD THE TRI CITIES AND MD
ERN SHORE...THEN A DUSTING TO HALF AN INCH RICHMOND NORTH AND WEST.
SNOW COMES TO AN END FRI EVENING AS THE SFC LOW PUSHES WELL OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES THRU THE
REGION.

CLOSED UPPER LOW/ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR VORTEX DIGS OVER
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. ~1040MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
MIDWEST...USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDY SAT WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH (STRONGER NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE
EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS SAT FORECAST TO WARM ONLY INTO THE MID 20S NW
TO LOW 30S SE (-2 STD DEV) UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE TEENS...RESULTING IN A RAW/COLD/WINDY
DAY. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS SAT NIGHT.
WINDS DECOUPLE INLAND AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION...BUT WIND
CHILLS STILL FORECAST IN THE SINGLE DIGITS INLAND TO 0 TO 8 BELOW
NRN NECK TO THE ERN SHORE. THE HIGH CENTERS OVER THE LOCAL AREA
SUNDAY WITH NLY WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. SLIGHTLY COLDER SUN WITH
DECREASED MIXING. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 20S (-2 STD DEV)
UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ATTENTION
TURNING TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. THERE
REMAINS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS...ALTHOUGH
THE 11/12Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING SLOWER...AND WARMER FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. THE 11/12Z GFS CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PCPN MONDAY AS A NRN STREAM TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WOULD MAINLY FALL AS SN OR SN/IP...WITH A TRANSITION TO
RA CLOSER TO THE COAST BY AFTERNOON. SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT WOULD
GENERALLY RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO RA MONDAY NIGHT...ASIDE FROM THE
FAR NW WHERE MIXED PCPN COULD PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH AN
IN-SITU WEDGE IN PLACE. THE LATEST DATA SCOURS OUT THE WEDGE BY
AFTERNOON WITH P-TYPE BECOMING RA EVEN IN THE FAR NW. DRYING OCCURS
MIDWEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE
CLIPPING THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
OF COOLER AIR AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS MONDAY WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW 30S ALONG
AND W OF I-95...WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW 40S. TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY MONDAY EVENING AND BEGIN TO RISE
OVERNIGHT EVENTUALLY WARMING INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S...FOLLOWED BY
LOW 40S NE...TO UPPER 40S SW THURSDAY. MORNING LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GUSTY WNW WNDS TO 25-30 KT CONTG...XPCD TO WANE AFT
22Z/11...BECOMING NW OR VRB 6 KT OR LESS OVRNGT. OTRW...VRF/SKC
CONTG INTO THE OVRNGT HRS.

GRADUALLY LWRG CIGS...ESP ACRS SRN VA/NE NC FRI MRNG. HI
CHC/LIKELY PROB FOR -SN AND MVFR CONDS (PRIMARILY VSBYS)...MNLY
ORF/ECG AREA MIDDAY/AFTN FRI...ENDING IN THE EVE. DRY WX W/ GUSTY
NW WINDS TO 25-35KT RETURN BY SAT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
MONDAY AS SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS BRING A WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FORM THE NW TONIGHT AND SETTLES
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH
AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...WITH SCA HEADLINES GRADUALLY
ENDING THROUGH THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE FRIDAY
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY AFTERNOON THE WIND WILL BECOME E/NE S OF
CAPE CHARLES WITH GENERALLY A S/SE DIRECTION N OF CAPE CHARLES.
SPEEDS WILL BE AOB 15KT. ADDITIONALLY...THIS LOW WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF SN...WHICH WILL REDUCE VSBY. AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NE
FRIDAY NIGHT A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-40KT OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 5-
8FT WITH 4-5 FT WAVES IN THE BAY. GALE FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY (4TH PERIOD). THESE WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NRN OCEAN ZONES. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN
CAPPED AT HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME. FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY AS
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES
ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NCZ012>014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NCZ015>017-030>032-102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR VAZ092-093-095>098-100-523>525.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM/TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB/MPR
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 112259
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
559 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SNOW CHANCES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH 6PM UPDATE...TWEAKED HOURLY POPS AND TEMPERATURES...KEEPING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST SLIGHTLY LONGER FOR THE
TIER OF COUNTIES JUST NORTH OF PITTSBURGH WHERE ECHOES HAVE HELD
ON THE LONGEST. ALTHOUGH THE VERY COLD AIR IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION UNTIL TOMORROW NIGHT...LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES COULD PLUMMET ALONG INTERSTATE 80 IF SKIES MANAGE TO
CLEAR OUT. THINK THE CLOUDS WILL HANG IN LONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT
THIS FROM HAPPENING...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SCATTERED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF THRU THE
EVE AS MDL PROGGED AND OBSERVED UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW LWRG TEMP
INVERSIONS...AND WKNG LAPSE RATES. BLDG HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
BRING CLRG SKIES TONIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD AVG AROUND 15 DEG BELOW
SEASONAL LVLS USING THE LATEST NR TERM CONSENSUS BLENDED
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE LWR OH VLY/MID ATLANTIC
RGN FRI BRINGING INCRG LGT SNOW CHCS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...IS EXPD TO CROSS THE RGN FRI EVE WITH
BETTER CHCS FOR SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
UNDER UPR TROFG AND LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT LATER FRI NGT AND
SAT...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPD TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA AS DRY ARCTIC AIR RESULTS IN UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE CONTENT
IN THE SNOW GROWTH RGN. BLDG HIGH PRESSURE SAT NGT/SUN SHOULD
BRING DRY WEATHER.

WIND WITH SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT AND COLD TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT
THRU SOMETIME SAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADVISORY LVL WIND CHILLS
ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA. DIMINISHING WINDS MAY PROVIDE FOR LESSER
CHCS OF WIND CHILL ADVISORIES SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...THOUGH TEMPS NR
OR BELOW ZERO ARE EXPD. TEMPS WERE MODIFIED SLIGHTLY FROM
SUPERBLENDED GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES MOVE TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES
TO START THE WEEK. MODELS HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS FOR SOUTHERN
STREAM STORM SYSTEM INTENSIFYING AND MOVING NORTHEAST LATER
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WPC PROGS AND
THE SUPERBLEND...WITH HIGHEST POPS INTO THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY WITH
CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE SEASONAL NORM. HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO GIVE A DRY DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL GIVE MVFR AT TIMES FOR NRN PORTS INTO
LATE AFTERNOON...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE TURNS THE FLOW AND BEGINS TO
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING FOR VFR CONDITIONS. WEST WINDS 10-15KTS
WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR WILL BE WITH LOW
PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 112259
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
559 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SNOW CHANCES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH 6PM UPDATE...TWEAKED HOURLY POPS AND TEMPERATURES...KEEPING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST SLIGHTLY LONGER FOR THE
TIER OF COUNTIES JUST NORTH OF PITTSBURGH WHERE ECHOES HAVE HELD
ON THE LONGEST. ALTHOUGH THE VERY COLD AIR IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION UNTIL TOMORROW NIGHT...LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES COULD PLUMMET ALONG INTERSTATE 80 IF SKIES MANAGE TO
CLEAR OUT. THINK THE CLOUDS WILL HANG IN LONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT
THIS FROM HAPPENING...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SCATTERED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF THRU THE
EVE AS MDL PROGGED AND OBSERVED UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW LWRG TEMP
INVERSIONS...AND WKNG LAPSE RATES. BLDG HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
BRING CLRG SKIES TONIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD AVG AROUND 15 DEG BELOW
SEASONAL LVLS USING THE LATEST NR TERM CONSENSUS BLENDED
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE LWR OH VLY/MID ATLANTIC
RGN FRI BRINGING INCRG LGT SNOW CHCS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...IS EXPD TO CROSS THE RGN FRI EVE WITH
BETTER CHCS FOR SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
UNDER UPR TROFG AND LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT LATER FRI NGT AND
SAT...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPD TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA AS DRY ARCTIC AIR RESULTS IN UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE CONTENT
IN THE SNOW GROWTH RGN. BLDG HIGH PRESSURE SAT NGT/SUN SHOULD
BRING DRY WEATHER.

WIND WITH SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT AND COLD TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT
THRU SOMETIME SAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADVISORY LVL WIND CHILLS
ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA. DIMINISHING WINDS MAY PROVIDE FOR LESSER
CHCS OF WIND CHILL ADVISORIES SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...THOUGH TEMPS NR
OR BELOW ZERO ARE EXPD. TEMPS WERE MODIFIED SLIGHTLY FROM
SUPERBLENDED GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES MOVE TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES
TO START THE WEEK. MODELS HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS FOR SOUTHERN
STREAM STORM SYSTEM INTENSIFYING AND MOVING NORTHEAST LATER
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WPC PROGS AND
THE SUPERBLEND...WITH HIGHEST POPS INTO THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY WITH
CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE SEASONAL NORM. HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO GIVE A DRY DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL GIVE MVFR AT TIMES FOR NRN PORTS INTO
LATE AFTERNOON...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE TURNS THE FLOW AND BEGINS TO
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING FOR VFR CONDITIONS. WEST WINDS 10-15KTS
WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR WILL BE WITH LOW
PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 112259
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
559 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY MORNING...LIFTING
NORTHEAST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COASTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS
YEAR. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CENTERS ~1030MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH
VALLEY. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE GULF STATES. COLD
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. WIND
CHILLS IN THE 20S UNDER A SUNNY SKY.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. WINDS DECOUPLE
ALLOWING FOR EXCEPTIONAL RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS EVENING AS
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT AS ATTENTION TURNS TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH. HEIGHT FALLS WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SC/NC
COAST BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF
THRU LATE TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE NC COAST FRI MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PUSHES OVER THE CAROLINAS. SHORTWAVE AND INCREASING WINDS
ALOFT WILL PROVIDE ADEQUATE UVM OVER AN AREA OF 280-285K ISENTROPIC
LIFT ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE
MODEST...BUT MIXING RATIOS PROGGED TO REACH 3.0 TO 4.0 G/KG. THERMAL
PROFILES INDICATE HIGH RH/ICE IN THE SNOW GROWTH LAYER ALONG WITH
ABUNDANT LIFT DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. THE NET
RESULT WILL BE INCREASING POPS THRU MID TO LATE MORNING FRI AS SNOW
SPREADS INTO THE REGION. PRECIP CONTINUES THRU THE AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW LIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. QUESTION BECOMES HOW FAR NW
THE PRECIP SPREADS FRI AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE SE
COUNTIES TO CATEGORICAL...TAPERING OFF THE CHANCE OVER THE NW
COUNTIES. WITH THE LUXURY OF COLD CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES...SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PREDOMINATE PTYPE THRU THE DURATION OF THE
EVENT. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE LATE FRIDAY NEAREST THE ALBEMARLE SOUND
WHERE A LITTLE SLEET MAY MIX WITH THE SNOW TOWARD THE END OF THE
EVENT. HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
WHERE BANDING FROM FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW IS INDICATED IN THE MODELS. 2-4 INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THAT
AREA...REQUIRING A WINTER STORM WARNING. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST INTO
HAMPTON ROADS AND THE LOWER PENINSULA AND EASTERN SHORE...SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF TO 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES IN EFFECT. PLEASE SEE LATEST WSW FOR MORE INFO. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS TAPER OFF TO 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH TOWARD THE TRI CITIES AND MD
ERN SHORE...THEN A DUSTING TO HALF AN INCH RICHMOND NORTH AND WEST.
SNOW COMES TO AN END FRI EVENING AS THE SFC LOW PUSHES WELL OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES THRU THE
REGION.

CLOSED UPPER LOW/ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR VORTEX DIGS OVER
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. ~1040MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
MIDWEST...USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDY SAT WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH (STRONGER NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE
EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS SAT FORECAST TO WARM ONLY INTO THE MID 20S NW
TO LOW 30S SE (-2 STD DEV) UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE TEENS...RESULTING IN A RAW/COLD/WINDY
DAY. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS SAT NIGHT.
WINDS DECOUPLE INLAND AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION...BUT WIND
CHILLS STILL FORECAST IN THE SINGLE DIGITS INLAND TO 0 TO 8 BELOW
NRN NECK TO THE ERN SHORE. THE HIGH CENTERS OVER THE LOCAL AREA
SUNDAY WITH NLY WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. SLIGHTLY COLDER SUN WITH
DECREASED MIXING. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 20S (-2 STD DEV)
UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ATTENTION
TURNING TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. THERE
REMAINS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS...ALTHOUGH
THE 11/12Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING SLOWER...AND WARMER FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. THE 11/12Z GFS CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PCPN MONDAY AS A NRN STREAM TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WOULD MAINLY FALL AS SN OR SN/IP...WITH A TRANSITION TO
RA CLOSER TO THE COAST BY AFTERNOON. SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT WOULD
GENERALLY RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO RA MONDAY NIGHT...ASIDE FROM THE
FAR NW WHERE MIXED PCPN COULD PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH AN
IN-SITU WEDGE IN PLACE. THE LATEST DATA SCOURS OUT THE WEDGE BY
AFTERNOON WITH P-TYPE BECOMING RA EVEN IN THE FAR NW. DRYING OCCURS
MIDWEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE
CLIPPING THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
OF COOLER AIR AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS MONDAY WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW 30S ALONG
AND W OF I-95...WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW 40S. TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY MONDAY EVENING AND BEGIN TO RISE
OVERNIGHT EVENTUALLY WARMING INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S...FOLLOWED BY
LOW 40S NE...TO UPPER 40S SW THURSDAY. MORNING LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GUSTY WNW WNDS TO 25-30 KT CONTG...XPCD TO WANE AFT
22Z/11...BECOMING NW OR VRB 6 KT OR LESS OVRNGT. OTRW...VRF/SKC
CONTG INTO THE OVRNGT HRS.

GRADUALLY LWRG CIGS...ESP ACRS SRN VA/NE NC FRI MRNG. HI
CHC/LIKELY PROB FOR -SN AND MVFR CONDS (PRIMARILY VSBYS)...MNLY
ORF/ECG AREA MIDDAY/AFTN FRI...ENDING IN THE EVE. DRY WX W/ GUSTY
NW WINDS TO 25-35KT RETURN BY SAT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
MONDAY AS SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS BRING A WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FORM THE NW TONIGHT AND SETTLES
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH
AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...WITH SCA HEADLINES GRADUALLY
ENDING THROUGH THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE FRIDAY
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY AFTERNOON THE WIND WILL BECOME E/NE S OF
CAPE CHARLES WITH GENERALLY A S/SE DIRECTION N OF CAPE CHARLES.
SPEEDS WILL BE AOB 15KT. ADDITIONALLY...THIS LOW WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF SN...WHICH WILL REDUCE VSBY. AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NE
FRIDAY NIGHT A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-40KT OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 5-
8FT WITH 4-5 FT WAVES IN THE BAY. GALE FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY (4TH PERIOD). THESE WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NRN OCEAN ZONES. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN
CAPPED AT HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME. FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY AS
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES
ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NCZ012>014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NCZ015>017-030>032-102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR VAZ092-093-095>098-100-523>525.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM/TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB/MPR
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 112259
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
559 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SNOW CHANCES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH 6PM UPDATE...TWEAKED HOURLY POPS AND TEMPERATURES...KEEPING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST SLIGHTLY LONGER FOR THE
TIER OF COUNTIES JUST NORTH OF PITTSBURGH WHERE ECHOES HAVE HELD
ON THE LONGEST. ALTHOUGH THE VERY COLD AIR IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION UNTIL TOMORROW NIGHT...LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES COULD PLUMMET ALONG INTERSTATE 80 IF SKIES MANAGE TO
CLEAR OUT. THINK THE CLOUDS WILL HANG IN LONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT
THIS FROM HAPPENING...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SCATTERED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF THRU THE
EVE AS MDL PROGGED AND OBSERVED UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW LWRG TEMP
INVERSIONS...AND WKNG LAPSE RATES. BLDG HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
BRING CLRG SKIES TONIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD AVG AROUND 15 DEG BELOW
SEASONAL LVLS USING THE LATEST NR TERM CONSENSUS BLENDED
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE LWR OH VLY/MID ATLANTIC
RGN FRI BRINGING INCRG LGT SNOW CHCS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...IS EXPD TO CROSS THE RGN FRI EVE WITH
BETTER CHCS FOR SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
UNDER UPR TROFG AND LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT LATER FRI NGT AND
SAT...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPD TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA AS DRY ARCTIC AIR RESULTS IN UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE CONTENT
IN THE SNOW GROWTH RGN. BLDG HIGH PRESSURE SAT NGT/SUN SHOULD
BRING DRY WEATHER.

WIND WITH SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT AND COLD TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT
THRU SOMETIME SAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADVISORY LVL WIND CHILLS
ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA. DIMINISHING WINDS MAY PROVIDE FOR LESSER
CHCS OF WIND CHILL ADVISORIES SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...THOUGH TEMPS NR
OR BELOW ZERO ARE EXPD. TEMPS WERE MODIFIED SLIGHTLY FROM
SUPERBLENDED GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES MOVE TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES
TO START THE WEEK. MODELS HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS FOR SOUTHERN
STREAM STORM SYSTEM INTENSIFYING AND MOVING NORTHEAST LATER
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WPC PROGS AND
THE SUPERBLEND...WITH HIGHEST POPS INTO THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY WITH
CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE SEASONAL NORM. HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO GIVE A DRY DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL GIVE MVFR AT TIMES FOR NRN PORTS INTO
LATE AFTERNOON...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE TURNS THE FLOW AND BEGINS TO
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING FOR VFR CONDITIONS. WEST WINDS 10-15KTS
WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR WILL BE WITH LOW
PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 112259
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
559 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY MORNING...LIFTING
NORTHEAST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COASTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS
YEAR. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CENTERS ~1030MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH
VALLEY. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE GULF STATES. COLD
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. WIND
CHILLS IN THE 20S UNDER A SUNNY SKY.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. WINDS DECOUPLE
ALLOWING FOR EXCEPTIONAL RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS EVENING AS
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT AS ATTENTION TURNS TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH. HEIGHT FALLS WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SC/NC
COAST BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF
THRU LATE TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE NC COAST FRI MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PUSHES OVER THE CAROLINAS. SHORTWAVE AND INCREASING WINDS
ALOFT WILL PROVIDE ADEQUATE UVM OVER AN AREA OF 280-285K ISENTROPIC
LIFT ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE
MODEST...BUT MIXING RATIOS PROGGED TO REACH 3.0 TO 4.0 G/KG. THERMAL
PROFILES INDICATE HIGH RH/ICE IN THE SNOW GROWTH LAYER ALONG WITH
ABUNDANT LIFT DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. THE NET
RESULT WILL BE INCREASING POPS THRU MID TO LATE MORNING FRI AS SNOW
SPREADS INTO THE REGION. PRECIP CONTINUES THRU THE AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW LIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. QUESTION BECOMES HOW FAR NW
THE PRECIP SPREADS FRI AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE SE
COUNTIES TO CATEGORICAL...TAPERING OFF THE CHANCE OVER THE NW
COUNTIES. WITH THE LUXURY OF COLD CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES...SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PREDOMINATE PTYPE THRU THE DURATION OF THE
EVENT. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE LATE FRIDAY NEAREST THE ALBEMARLE SOUND
WHERE A LITTLE SLEET MAY MIX WITH THE SNOW TOWARD THE END OF THE
EVENT. HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
WHERE BANDING FROM FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW IS INDICATED IN THE MODELS. 2-4 INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THAT
AREA...REQUIRING A WINTER STORM WARNING. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST INTO
HAMPTON ROADS AND THE LOWER PENINSULA AND EASTERN SHORE...SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF TO 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES IN EFFECT. PLEASE SEE LATEST WSW FOR MORE INFO. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS TAPER OFF TO 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH TOWARD THE TRI CITIES AND MD
ERN SHORE...THEN A DUSTING TO HALF AN INCH RICHMOND NORTH AND WEST.
SNOW COMES TO AN END FRI EVENING AS THE SFC LOW PUSHES WELL OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES THRU THE
REGION.

CLOSED UPPER LOW/ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR VORTEX DIGS OVER
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. ~1040MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
MIDWEST...USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDY SAT WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH (STRONGER NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE
EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS SAT FORECAST TO WARM ONLY INTO THE MID 20S NW
TO LOW 30S SE (-2 STD DEV) UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE TEENS...RESULTING IN A RAW/COLD/WINDY
DAY. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS SAT NIGHT.
WINDS DECOUPLE INLAND AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION...BUT WIND
CHILLS STILL FORECAST IN THE SINGLE DIGITS INLAND TO 0 TO 8 BELOW
NRN NECK TO THE ERN SHORE. THE HIGH CENTERS OVER THE LOCAL AREA
SUNDAY WITH NLY WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. SLIGHTLY COLDER SUN WITH
DECREASED MIXING. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 20S (-2 STD DEV)
UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ATTENTION
TURNING TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. THERE
REMAINS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS...ALTHOUGH
THE 11/12Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING SLOWER...AND WARMER FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. THE 11/12Z GFS CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PCPN MONDAY AS A NRN STREAM TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WOULD MAINLY FALL AS SN OR SN/IP...WITH A TRANSITION TO
RA CLOSER TO THE COAST BY AFTERNOON. SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT WOULD
GENERALLY RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO RA MONDAY NIGHT...ASIDE FROM THE
FAR NW WHERE MIXED PCPN COULD PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH AN
IN-SITU WEDGE IN PLACE. THE LATEST DATA SCOURS OUT THE WEDGE BY
AFTERNOON WITH P-TYPE BECOMING RA EVEN IN THE FAR NW. DRYING OCCURS
MIDWEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE
CLIPPING THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
OF COOLER AIR AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS MONDAY WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW 30S ALONG
AND W OF I-95...WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW 40S. TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY MONDAY EVENING AND BEGIN TO RISE
OVERNIGHT EVENTUALLY WARMING INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S...FOLLOWED BY
LOW 40S NE...TO UPPER 40S SW THURSDAY. MORNING LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GUSTY WNW WNDS TO 25-30 KT CONTG...XPCD TO WANE AFT
22Z/11...BECOMING NW OR VRB 6 KT OR LESS OVRNGT. OTRW...VRF/SKC
CONTG INTO THE OVRNGT HRS.

GRADUALLY LWRG CIGS...ESP ACRS SRN VA/NE NC FRI MRNG. HI
CHC/LIKELY PROB FOR -SN AND MVFR CONDS (PRIMARILY VSBYS)...MNLY
ORF/ECG AREA MIDDAY/AFTN FRI...ENDING IN THE EVE. DRY WX W/ GUSTY
NW WINDS TO 25-35KT RETURN BY SAT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
MONDAY AS SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS BRING A WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FORM THE NW TONIGHT AND SETTLES
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH
AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...WITH SCA HEADLINES GRADUALLY
ENDING THROUGH THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE FRIDAY
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY AFTERNOON THE WIND WILL BECOME E/NE S OF
CAPE CHARLES WITH GENERALLY A S/SE DIRECTION N OF CAPE CHARLES.
SPEEDS WILL BE AOB 15KT. ADDITIONALLY...THIS LOW WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF SN...WHICH WILL REDUCE VSBY. AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NE
FRIDAY NIGHT A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-40KT OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 5-
8FT WITH 4-5 FT WAVES IN THE BAY. GALE FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY (4TH PERIOD). THESE WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NRN OCEAN ZONES. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN
CAPPED AT HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME. FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY AS
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES
ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NCZ012>014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NCZ015>017-030>032-102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR VAZ092-093-095>098-100-523>525.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM/TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB/MPR
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 112102
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
402 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY MORNING...LIFTING
NORTHEAST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COASTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS
YEAR. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CENTERS ~1030MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH
VALLEY. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE GULF STATES. COLD
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. WIND
CHILLS IN THE 20S UNDER A SUNNY SKY.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. WINDS DECOUPLE
ALLOWING FOR EXCEPTIONAL RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS EVENING AS
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT AS ATTENTION TURNS TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH. HEIGHT FALLS WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SC/NC
COAST BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF
THRU LATE TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE NC COAST FRI MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PUSHES OVER THE CAROLINAS. SHORTWAVE AND INCREASING WINDS
ALOFT WILL PROVIDE ADEQUATE UVM OVER AN AREA OF 280-285K ISENTROPIC
LIFT ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE
MODEST...BUT MIXING RATIOS PROGGED TO REACH 3.0 TO 4.0 G/KG. THERMAL
PROFILES INDICATE HIGH RH/ICE IN THE SNOW GROWTH LAYER ALONG WITH
ABUNDANT LIFT DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. THE NET
RESULT WILL BE INCREASING POPS THRU MID TO LATE MORNING FRI AS SNOW
SPREADS INTO THE REGION. PRECIP CONTINUES THRU THE AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW LIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. QUESTION BECOMES HOW FAR NW
THE PRECIP SPREADS FRI AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE SE
COUNTIES TO CATEGORICAL...TAPERING OFF THE CHANCE OVER THE NW
COUNTIES. WITH THE LUXURY OF COLD CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES...SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PREDOMINATE PTYPE THRU THE DURATION OF THE
EVENT. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE LATE FRIDAY NEAREST THE ALBEMARLE SOUND
WHERE A LITTLE SLEET MAY MIX WITH THE SNOW TOWARD THE END OF THE
EVENT. HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
WHERE BANDING FROM FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW IS INDICATED IN THE MODELS. 2-4 INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THAT
AREA...REQUIRING A WINTER STORM WARNING. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST INTO
HAMPTON ROADS AND THE LOWER PENINSULA AND EASTERN SHORE...SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF TO 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES IN EFFECT. PLEASE SEE LATEST WSW FOR MORE INFO. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS TAPER OFF TO 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH TOWARD THE TRI CITIES AND MD
ERN SHORE...THEN A DUSTING TO HALF AN INCH RICHMOND NORTH AND WEST.
SNOW COMES TO AN END FRI EVENING AS THE SFC LOW PUSHES WELL OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES THRU THE
REGION.

CLOSED UPPER LOW/ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR VORTEX DIGS OVER
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. ~1040MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
MIDWEST...USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDY SAT WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH (STRONGER NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE
EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS SAT FORECAST TO WARM ONLY INTO THE MID 20S NW
TO LOW 30S SE (-2 STD DEV) UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE TEENS...RESULTING IN A RAW/COLD/WINDY
DAY. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS SAT NIGHT.
WINDS DECOUPLE INLAND AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION...BUT WIND
CHILLS STILL FORECAST IN THE SINGLE DIGITS INLAND TO 0 TO 8 BELOW
NRN NECK TO THE ERN SHORE. THE HIGH CENTERS OVER THE LOCAL AREA
SUNDAY WITH NLY WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. SLIGHTLY COLDER SUN WITH
DECREASED MIXING. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 20S (-2 STD DEV)
UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ATTENTION
TURNING TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. THERE
REMAINS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS...ALTHOUGH
THE 11/12Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING SLOWER...AND WARMER FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. THE 11/12Z GFS CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PCPN MONDAY AS A NRN STREAM TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WOULD MAINLY FALL AS SN OR SN/IP...WITH A TRANSITION TO
RA CLOSER TO THE COAST BY AFTERNOON. SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT WOULD
GENERALLY RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO RA MONDAY NIGHT...ASIDE FROM THE
FAR NW WHERE MIXED PCPN COULD PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH AN
IN-SITU WEDGE IN PLACE. THE LATEST DATA SCOURS OUT THE WEDGE BY
AFTERNOON WITH P-TYPE BECOMING RA EVEN IN THE FAR NW. DRYING OCCURS
MIDWEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE
CLIPPING THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
OF COOLER AIR AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS MONDAY WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW 30S ALONG
AND W OF I-95...WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW 40S. TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY MONDAY EVENING AND BEGIN TO RISE
OVERNIGHT EVENTUALLY WARMING INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S...FOLLOWED BY
LOW 40S NE...TO UPPER 40S SW THURSDAY. MORNING LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GUSTY WNW WNDS TO 25-30 KT CONTG...XPCD TO WANE AFT
22Z/11...BECOMING NW OR VRB 6 KT OR LESS OVRNGT. OTRW...VRF/SKC
CONTG INTO THE OVRNGT HRS.

GRADUALLY LWRG CIGS...ESP ACRS SRN VA/NE NC FRI MRNG. HI
CHC/LIKELY PROB FOR -SN AND MVFR CONDS (PRIMARILY VSBYS)...MNLY
ORF/ECG AREA MIDDAY/AFTN FRI...ENDING IN THE EVE. DRY WX W/ GUSTY
NW WINDS TO 25-35KT RETURN BY SAT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
MONDAY AS SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS BRING A WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FORM THE NW TONIGHT AND SETTLES
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH
AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...WITH SCA HEADLINES GRADUALLY
ENDING THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE
LIFTS TO THE NE FRIDAY WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY AFTERNOON THE WIND
WILL BECOME E/NE S OF CAPE CHARLES WITH GENERALLY A S/SE DIRECTION N
OF CAPE CHARLES. SPEEDS WILL BE AOB 15KT. ADDITIONALLY...THIS LOW
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SN...WHICH WILL REDUCE VSBY. AS THE LOW LIFTS
TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS
THE REGION WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-40KT OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 5-
8FT WITH 4-5 FT WAVES IN THE BAY. GALE FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY (4TH PERIOD). THESE WILL LIKELY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN OCEAN
ZONES. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN CAPPED AT
HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME. FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY AS TEMPERATURES
PLUMMET SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE
AREA. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE WNW FLOW WILL ALLOW ANOMALIES TO FURTHER FALL. STRONG NW FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE BLOW-OUT TIDES
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NCZ012>014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NCZ015>017-030>032-102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR VAZ092-093-095>098-100-523>525.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ634-650-652-
     654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM/TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB/MPR
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KLWX 112021
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
321 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE
MAY IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE POISED OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
MID-ATLANTIC STILL REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW WITH LONG-WAVE TROUGH
OVER EASTERN N AMERICA. HOWEVER HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISING AND BL
MOISTURE THINNING AS EVIDENT IN RECENT VIS SATELLITE. THREAT FOR
FLURRIES AND ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MD WILL CONTINUE TO
WANE. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AS THE HIGH BUILDS.

THE HIGH SLIPS TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. ANY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
QUICKLY COME TO AN END THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE JUST A COLD NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS. WIND CHILLS WILL BE LESS
OF A CONCERN WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY WITH RETURN
FLOW BRINGING SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES (BUT STILL ON EITHER SIDE
OF FREEZING)...AS WELL AS INCREASING CLOUDS/MOISTURE. ONE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE ANOTHER TAKES SHAPE NEAR THE
CAROLINA COAST IN RESPONSE TO A SOUTHERN VORT MAX. MAJORITY OF
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE COASTAL LOW EFFECTS TO OUR SOUTHEAST...BUT DID
INTRODUCE LOW END POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN MD.

THE MORE IMPORTANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR AREA WILL BE A PAIR OF
BOUNDARIES TRAILING THE NORTHERN LOW CENTER. INCREASING SIGNAL IN
MODEL GUIDANCE OF A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
FIRST BOUNDARY AND HAVE THUS INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AVAILABLE. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND
COVERAGE...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THESE SNOW SHOWERS TO REACH
THE METRO AREA DURING PORTIONS OF EVENING RUSH HOUR. WITH THE
ANTECEDENT COLD CONDITIONS...ANY SNOW WOULD STICK ON UNTREATED
ROADS. CERTAINLY A SITUATION TO PAY ATTENTION TO.

THIS WILL ALSO MARK THE BEGINNING OF A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE
SNOW...HEAVIEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BUT LASTING THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINTER WX ADVISORY POSSIBLE AS SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
EXPECTED.

SECOND BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND MARK THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDEST AIRMASS. EVEN THOUGH CHANCES DECREASE A
BIT...SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD STILL MAKE IT ACROSS ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS IN
MOST AREA AND WINDS INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH
BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS MAY NECESSITATE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE STRETCH WITH 850
MB TEMPS BELOW -20C AND STIFF WINDS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE
IN THE TEENS AND 20S WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS...AND BELOW ZERO IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. WIND GUSTS OF AT
LEAST 30-40 MPH WILL OCCUR SATURDAY...AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE WINDS WILL ONLY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY SATURDAY
NIGHT. WIND CHILLS MAY FAIL TO RISE ABOVE +10F ON SATURDAY IN MUCH
OF THE AREA...AND FALL BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILL
ADVISORY CRITERIA (-5F) WILL LIKELY BE MET OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...AND WIND CHILL WARNINGS (-25F) ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES.

OTHER ISSUE FOR SATURDAY WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
AND STREAMERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA. SNSQ PARAMETER
IN THE NAM AND GFS...AND EVEN 12Z GFS QPF OUTPUT...PLACE THE FAVORED
AREA ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MD INCLUDING BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A PRETTY QUICK EROSION OF AN
IMPRESSIVELY COLD AIRMASS BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. NORMALLY THIS TYPE OF QUICK EROSION WOULD FORCE SOME KIND OF
PRECIPITATION...AND AS SUCH A LOT OF THE GUIDANCE IS TRYING TO BRING
SOME PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL FORCE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...WHICH WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEAST NEAR OR OVER THE
AREA. GUIDANCE DIVERGES GREATLY ON SURFACE LOW TRACK AND HOW MUCH
COLD AIR IS LEFT IN PLACE. BEST CHANCE FOR PROLONGED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. EAST OF
THERE PRECIPITATION MAY VERY WELL CHANGE TO RAIN BY TUESDAY. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
AMOUNTS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

AN ACTIVE PATTERN MAY PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK BUT
DETAILS ARE FUZZY GIVEN THE UNCERTAIN EVOLUTION OF THE EARLY WEEK
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRIMARY ISSUE AFFECTING THE TERMINAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE
WIND. WNW GUSTS UP TO 30 KT WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
ANY LINGERING CIGS AT 050-060 WILL DISSIPATE. VFR THROUGH THE BULK
OF FRIDAY WITH LIGHT SW WINDS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SNOW SHOWERS
AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
NOT HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT IN THE EXTENDED TAFS NOW...BUT
THESE COULD CAUSE BRIEF IMPACTS.

WINDS INCREASE SHARPLY BEHIND FRONT...WITH NW GUSTS 25-35 KT
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY AND ONLY GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SATURDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A LINGERING THREAT OF ISOLD/SCT SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY BWI/MTN.

SUB-VFR PSBL SUN NGT INTO MON IF PRECIP DEVELOPS. WINDS
LIGHT SUN NGT BCMNG GNLY ELY MON.

&&

.MARINE...
W/NW WINDS CONTINUING TO GUST TO 30 KT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BUT
QUICKLY DROPPING OFF THIS EVENING. THE SCA OVER THE BAY MAY BE ABLE
TO BE CANCELED EARLY AS WINDS ARE FORECAST TO LIGHTEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SW FLOW TO START FRIDAY BUT THAT WILL QUICKLY CHANGE
DURING THE EVENING AS ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH CHANCE FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. W/NW WINDS WILL INCREASE IMMEDIATELY AND WILL BE
ISSUING SCA. THIS MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH IN THAT OCCURRING UNTIL AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.
GALES THEN APPEAR LIKELY SATURDAY AND A PORTION OF SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE STRONG WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A FREEZING SPRAY THREAT.

WINDS DROP BELOW GALE RELATIVELY QUICKLY SUNDAY...AND
REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...ADS/DFH
MARINE...ADS/DFH




000
FXUS61 KPHI 111959
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
259 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE TO
THE EAST FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA AND CAUSE AN ARCTIC FRONT TO CROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE WEEKEND AND CREST OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE ARE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH 8 PM...CONTINUING SNOW SHOWER FORECAST, POSSIBLY BRIEFLY
HEAVY WITH BRIEF SMALL ACCUMULATIONS. I THINK MOSTLY HIGHER
TERRAIN UNLESS WE CAN SEE SOME BANDS ORGANIZE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
NOT GIVING UP, THOUGH DRIER DEWPOINTS AND 20+ TT/TD SPREADS ARGUE
AGAINST ACCUMS ANYWHERE SE OF A KABE-KMMU LINE. HOWEVER, HAVE SEEN
BANDS ORGANIZE BEFORE AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RH CAN PERMIT
PROBLEM SNOW SQUALLS. WILL CHECK AT 320 PM FOR A FINAL DECISION ON
HOW TO HOPEFULLY BEST FORECAST THE PERIOD 330 PM TO 8 PM.

THE SCIENCE BEHIND THE SNOW SHOWERS...EXTREME AND MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD POOL UP THROUGH MID
LVLS--- ROUGHLY 500MB. BOTH THE BGM WINDEX TOOL AND THE BTV
SNOWSQUALL PARM TOOLS INDICATED HUGE VALUES BOTH THIS MORNING,
THIS AFTERNOON AND PROBABLY AGAIN SATURDAY WITH REAL DEAL TRUE
ARCTIC PLUNGE.

TONIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS DRY OUT OR TRAIL ESEWD OUT TO SEA THIS
EVENING AS THE SFC HEATING WANES AND THE COLD POOL ALOFT WARMS A
BIT. SKIES CLEAR MOST OF THE AREA AND WINDS DIMINISH AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE POKES FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN WITH SOME RADIATIONAL
COOLING ON TODAYS FRESHENED SNOW COVER. RAN A 50 50 BLEND OF 12Z/11
GFS/NAM MOS BUT WILL PROBABLY ALLOW FOR COOLER THAN THIS FCST BY
2-3 DEGREES OVER E PA AND NW NJ RADIATORS. SHOULD GET CLOSE TO ZERO
IN PARTS OF E PA RADIATIORS PER GFS 2M TEMPS. WESTERLY WINDS
DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT LATE.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SUNNY, THEN INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE JAMES
BAY ARCTIC VORTEX DIVING SEWD...MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS UNTIL LATE IN
THE DAY. WINDS TURN SW AND THE UNSTABLE AND MOISTENING BOUNDARY
LAYER LAPSE RATES OVER THE STILL OPEN WATERS OF THE BAYS MAY YIELD
SOME BAY EFFECT FLURRIES LATE IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE, SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE WAA PATTERN IN PA COULD DEVELOP FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE POCONOS NEAR 5 PM. SW WIND.

50 50 BLENDED 12Z/11 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS. THIS WILL USHER
IN THE COLD WINDS WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING THROUGH THE TEENS IN
MOST AREAS AND REACHING THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
TEENS NORTH AND LOW 20S SOUTH. WIND CHILL VALUES MUCH OF THE DAY
WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH SUB-ZERO READINGS NORTH. WE HAVE
ISSUED A WIND CHILL WATCH FOR THE SRN POCONOS AND NW NJ FOR SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WHEN THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE OVER THE AREA.
WIND CHILL READINGS IN THESE AREAS WILL BE -25 TO -30 DEGREES. A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NE PA / NRN NJ
SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE  MON AND THEN TREND BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR
TUE/WED. THESE WARMER TEMPS WILL ARRIVE AT THE SAME TIME AS A WET
WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW. PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY
BEGIN MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. MANY OF THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE INDICATING ENOUGH OF A WARM-UP SO THAT MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN. IT LOOKS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF
THE PRECIPITATION INITIALLY COULD BE SNOW OR SOME SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN. WE WILL JUST HAVE RAIN/SNOW IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW WITH LIMITED
CONFID IN PLACEMENT OF ANY FROZEN PCPN.

THE STORM WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION NEXT WED AND MORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY AND LAST INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TODAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDS IN
SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AROUND KABE/KRDG AND KTTN DURING MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AND MAY SLIP SOUTH TOWARD THE VICINITY OF KPHL AND
KPNE AROUND 22Z. A WESTERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUITE GUSTY
TO AROUND 30 KNOTS, WITH A FEW ISOLATED GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS.

THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH EXTREMELY LARGE AND MOIST LOW
LVL LAPSE RATES. ALSO AIDING MAY BE THE LAKE ERIE MOISTURE PLUME
(RECENTLY LARGELY NON ICE COVERED).

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 4000 FT DURING THE
EVENING BECOMING MAINLY CLEAR OR WITH JUST A LITTLE CIRRUS OVERHEAD.
ANY LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END BETWEEN ABOUT 0Z TO 02Z. GUSTY
WNW WINDS 20-30 KT INTO THE EVENING WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH LATER
DURING THE NIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. CIRRUS CIGS ARRIVE AND THEN
LOWER DURING THE AFTN. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED, MAINLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 25 KNOTS.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY THEN BECOMING MVFR AND
IFR BY EVENING WITH RAIN AND SNOW.

TUESDAY...WIDESPREAD LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WITH RAIN AND POSSIBLY SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
GALES IN PROGRESS AND GLW CONTINUES AS POSTED. AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED
FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE OVER NIGHT HOURS ONCE THE GALES SUBSIDE.

LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS OCCURRING AND CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED ON
THE BAY AS WELL AS THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

FRIDAY NO HEADLINE! A GOOD DAY TO FINISH UP ANY MARINE RELATED ACTIVITY.

OUTLOOK...
GALES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
WILL DECREASE BACK TO SCA CONDITIONS FOR AWHILE SUNDAY BEFORE
RETURNING TO SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. MORE SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN SEVERAL DEGREES
OF ZERO (WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 8 AM
SUNDAY EXCEPT COLDER KMPO (NEAR -12F). THIS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY
THE GFS/ECMWF 2M TEMPS CYCLICALLY SINCE AT LEAST THE 00Z/7
OPERATIONAL CYCLES. THEREFORE, BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD EQUALING OR
EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY THE 14TH WOULD BE KABE, KTTN, KPHL
AND KMPO.

SNOW COVER MAY HELP A BIT I-95 NORTHWESTWARD...AND WE`LL SEE
WHERE WE ARE WITH SNOW COVER BY THURSDAY EVENING. NEW DUSTINGS
APPEAR ON THE WAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

PLEASE NOTE... GUIDANCE IN PART IS BEING CLIMO BIASED HIGHER THAN
WHAT THE ONCOMING GFS/ECMWF LITERAL AIRMASS AND 2M TEMPS ARE INDICATING
FOR SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING IN THE URBAN AREAS SHOULD
BE ABOUT 25 COLDER THAN NORMAL. THAT MEANS GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR PHL
OF 5 AND 6 DEGREES APPEAR TOO WARM...ESPECIALLY WITH A NORMAL
PHILADELPHIA LOW ON SUNDAY OF 28.

HAVE SEEN THE 12Z/11 2M TEMPS FOR PHL...1 ABOVE RANGING DOWN TO
-11 AT KMPO AND AM LIKING THOSE VALUES AS WITHIN 2F OF THE
UPCOMING REALITY.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE
14TH, IF THEN.  THOSE HAVE BEEN ADDED RECENTLY BELOW.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH ----RER LOW MAX
---------------------- --------------------

ABE             8                         -1 IN 1979     14-1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979     13-1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979     14-1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979     13-1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

SO, THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY 30 BELOW IN
THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA/GAINES
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 111952
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
252 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE TO
THE EAST FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA AND CAUSE AN ARCTIC FRONT TO CROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE WEEKEND AND CREST OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE ARE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THROUGH 8 PM...CONTINUING SNOW SHOWER FORECAST, POSSIBLY BRIEFLY
HEAVY WITH BRIEF SMALL ACCUMULATIONS. I THINK MOSTLY HIGHER
TERRAIN UNLESS WE CAN SEE SOME BANDS ORGANIZE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
NOT GIVING UP, THOUGH DRIER DEWPOINTS AND 20+ TT/TD SPREADS ARGUE
AGAINST ACCUMS ANYWHERE SE OF A KABE-KMMU LINE. HOWEVER, HAVE SEEN
BANDS ORGANIZE BEFORE AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RH CAN PERMIT
PROBLEM SNOW SQUALLS. WILL CHECK AT 320 PM FOR A FINAL DECISION ON
HOW TO HOPEFULLY BEST FORECAST THE PERIOD 330 PM TO 8 PM.

THE SCIENCE BEHIND THE SNOW SHOWERS...EXTREME AND MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD POOL UP THROUGH MID
LVLS--- ROUGHLY 500MB. BOTH THE BGM WINDEX TOOL AND THE BTV
SNOWSQUALL PARM TOOLS INDICATED HUGE VALUES BOTH THIS MORNING,
THIS AFTERNOON AND PROBABLY AGAIN SATURDAY WITH REAL DEAL TRUE
ARCTIC PLUNGE.

TONIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS DRY OUT OR TRAIL ESEWD OUT TO SEA THIS
EVENING AS THE SFC HEATING WANES AND THE COLD POOL ALOFT WARMS A
BIT. SKIES CLEAR MOST OF THE AREA AND WINDS DIMINISH AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE POKES FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN WITH SOME RADIATIONAL
COOLING ON TODAYS FRESHENED SNOW COVER. RAN A 50 50 BLEND OF 12Z/11
GFS/NAM MOS BUT WILL PROBABLY ALLOW FOR COOLER THAN THIS FCST BY
2-3 DEGREES OVER E PA AND NW NJ RADIATORS. SHOULD GET CLOSE TO ZERO
IN PARTS OF E PA RADIATIORS PER GFS 2M TEMPS. WESTERLY WINDS
DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT LATE.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
SUNNY, THEN INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE JAMES
BAY ARCTIC VORTEX DIVING SEWD...MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS UNTIL LATE IN
THE DAY. WINDS TURN SW AND THE UNSTABLE AND MOISTENING BOUNDARY
LAYER LAPSE RATES OVER THE STILL OPEN WATERS OF THE BAYS MAY YIELD
SOME BAY EFFECT FLURRIES LATE IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE, SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE WAA PATTERN IN PA COULD DEVELOP FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE POCONOS NEAR 5 PM. SW WIND.

50 50 BLENDED 12Z/11 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUR UPDATED BRIEFING PACKAGE AT MIDDAY WILL INCLUDE MORE INFORMATION
ON THE UPCOMING DANGEROUS COLD, INCLUDING A POSSIBLE WIND CHILL
WATCH FOR SAT NIGHT WHICH IS ALREADY A HIGH CONFIDENCE LIKELIHOOD.

THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE BOTH THE PROSPECTS FOR THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON CENTERED ON SUNDAY MORNING AND A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP.
THESE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER AN INCH.

BEHIND THE FRONT, IT WILL BE A VERY COLD AND WINDY PERIOD WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE NW FLOW OFF OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE FAVORED REGIONS TO
SEE SNOW SHOWERS ARE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS OF EASTERN PA AND
NW NJ. BUFKIT ANALYSIS YIELDS THE POTENTIAL FOR 30-40 MPH GUSTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE GUST POTENTIAL. THE STRONG CAA WILL NOT ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE MUCH DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. MODELING HAS BEEN HOLDING STEADY ON THE
IDEA THAT 850 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE BELOW -25C. WILL
NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE DEGREE OF THE COLD AIR
BEING MODELED. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS, THOUGH NOT AS STRONG
AS ON SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.
THE COLD AND WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS FROM -10 TO -30 BELOW
ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. PLEASE TO MAKE SURE TO
PREPARE FOR THE COLD WEATHER THAT IS COMING. PREPARATIONS INCLUDE
CHECKING PIPES AND MAKING SURE YOUR VEHICLE IS IN GOOD WORKING
CONDITION. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY NEAR OR
BELOW ZERO AS WELL. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION ON RECORD
POTENTIAL.

PRESIDENTS DAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS
CURRENTLY MODELED TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. THE 00Z 2/11 OPERATIONAL
MODELS HAVE NARROWED THE GOAL POSTS OF POSSIBLE TRACKS FROM
EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THIS ALSO MATCHES OR IS JUST EAST OF THE 12Z
2/10 ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACK. THIS TRACK GOES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
AL/GA NORTHEAST TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINE THEN DUE NORTH UP THE
EAST COAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TWO MAIN FEATURES ARE
PRESENT TO TRACK WITH REGARDS TO MODELS OR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES
CHANGING THE FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IN FUTURE RUNS. THIS
FIRST IS A LEADING SHORTWAVE WHICH MOVES INTO THE THE OHIO VALLEY
ON MONDAY AND THE SECOND IS THE DEGREE OF MID- LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
THAT OCCUR AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WOULD
TEND TO PUSH THE OVERALL TROUGH WITH THIS STORM FURTHER EAST.
WHILE A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER MID- LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES LEADING TO A FURTHER WEST TRACK OF THE LOW. RIGHT NOW THE
FAVORED TRACK WOULD RESULT IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. IT WILL LIKELY BE WINDY AS WELL WITH THE
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NEAR THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY: THE REGION SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AS
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION.
SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AS 2/11 00Z ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER SYSTEM
INTO THE REGION BY THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TODAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDS IN
SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AROUND KABE/KRDG AND KTTN DURING MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AND MAY SLIP SOUTH TOWARD THE VICINITY OF KPHL AND
KPNE AROUND 22Z. A WESTERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUITE GUSTY
TO AROUND 30 KNOTS, WITH A FEW ISOLATED GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS.

THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH EXTREMELY LARGE AND MOIST LOW
LVL LAPSE RATES. ALSO AIDING MAY BE THE LAKE ERIE MOISTURE PLUME
(RECENTLY LARGELY NON ICE COVERED).

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 4000 FT DURING THE
EVENING BECOMING MAINLY CLEAR OR WITH JUST A LITTLE CIRRUS OVERHEAD.
ANY LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END BETWEEN ABOUT 0Z TO 02Z. GUSTY
WNW WINDS 20-30 KT INTO THE EVENING WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH LATER
DURING THE NIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. CIRRUS CIGS ARRIVE AND THEN
LOWER DURING THE AFTN. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED, MAINLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 25 KNOTS.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY THEN BECOMING MVFR AND
IFR BY EVENING WITH RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
GALES IN PROGRESS AND GLW CONTINUES AS POSTED. AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED
FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE OVER NIGHT HOURS ONCE THE GALES SUBSIDE.

LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS OCCURRING AND CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED ON
THE BAY AS WELL AS THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

FRIDAY NO HEADLINE! A GOOD DAY TO FINISH UP ANY MARINE RELATED ACTIVITY.

OUTLOOK...


SO WHILE, SEAS AND WINDS WILL START OUT FAIRLY LIGHT ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, A QUICK RAMP UP IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND REACH GALE FORCE BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE GALE FORCE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE FOR GALES ON SATURDAY IS
VERY HIGH. SEAS WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET FOR A PERIOD AS
WELL ON SATURDAY. SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE ON
SUNDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY START INCREASING AGAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN SEVERAL DEGREES
OF ZERO (WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 8 AM
SUNDAY EXCEPT COLDER KMPO (NEAR -12F). THIS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY
THE GFS/ECMWF 2M TEMPS CYCLICALLY SINCE AT LEAST THE 00Z/7
OPERATIONAL CYCLES. THEREFORE, BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD EQUALING OR
EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY THE 14TH WOULD BE KABE, KTTN, KPHL
AND KMPO.

SNOW COVER MAY HELP A BIT I-95 NORTHWESTWARD...AND WE`LL SEE
WHERE WE ARE WITH SNOW COVER BY THURSDAY EVENING. NEW DUSTINGS
APPEAR ON THE WAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

PLEASE NOTE... GUIDANCE IN PART IS BEING CLIMO BIASED HIGHER THAN
WHAT THE ONCOMING GFS/ECMWF LITERAL AIRMASS AND 2M TEMPS ARE INDICATING
FOR SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING IN THE URBAN AREAS SHOULD
BE ABOUT 25 COLDER THAN NORMAL. THAT MEANS GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR PHL
OF 5 AND 6 DEGREES APPEAR TOO WARM...ESPECIALLY WITH A NORMAL
PHILADELPHIA LOW ON SUNDAY OF 28.

HAVE SEEN THE 12Z/11 2M TEMPS FOR PHL...1 ABOVE RANGING DOWN TO
-11 AT KMPO AND AM LIKING THOSE VALUES AS WITHIN 2F OF THE
UPCOMING REALITY.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE
14TH, IF THEN.  THOSE HAVE BEEN ADDED RECENTLY BELOW.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH ----RER LOW MAX
---------------------- --------------------

ABE             8                         -1 IN 1979     14-1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979     13-1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979     14-1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979     13-1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

SO, THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY 30 BELOW IN
THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA 252
NEAR TERM...DRAG 252
SHORT TERM...DRAG 252
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/KLINE 252
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES 252
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 111940
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
240 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SNOW CHANCES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF THRU THE
EVE AS MDL PROGGED AND OBSERVED UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW LWRG TEMP
INVERSIONS...AND WKNG LAPSE RATES. BLDG HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
BRING CLRG SKIES TONIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD AVG AROUND 15 DEG BELOW
SEASONAL LVLS USING THE LATEST NR TERM CONSENSUS BLENDED
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE LWR OH VLY/MID ATLANTIC
RGN FRI BRINGING INCRG LGT SNOW CHCS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...IS EXPD TO CROSS THE RGN FRI EVE WITH
BETTER CHCS FOR SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
UNDER UPR TROFG AND LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT LATER FRI NGT AND
SAT...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPD TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA AS DRY ARCTIC AIR RESULTS IN UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE CONTENT
IN THE SNOW GROWTH RGN. BLDG HIGH PRESSURE SAT NGT/SUN SHOULD
BRING DRY WEATHER.

WIND WITH SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT AND COLD TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT
THRU SOMETIME SAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADVISORY LVL WIND CHILLS
ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA. DIMINISHING WINDS MAY PROVIDE FOR LESSER
CHCS OF WIND CHILL ADVISORIES SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...THOUGH TEMPS NR
OR BELOW ZERO ARE EXPD. TEMPS WERE MODIFIED SLIGHTLY FROM
SUPERBLENDED GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES MOVE TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES
TO START THE WEEK. MODELS HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS FOR SOUTHERN
STREAM STORM SYSTEM INTENSIFYING AND MOVING NORTHEAST LATER
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WPC PROGS AND
THE SUPERBLEND...WITH HIGHEST POPS INTO THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY WITH
CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE SEASONAL NORM. HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO GIVE A DRY DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL GIVE MVFR AT TIMES FOR NRN PORTS INTO
LATE AFTERNOON...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE TURNS THE FLOW AND BEGINS TO
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING FOR VFR CONDITIONS. WEST WINDS 10-15KTS
WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR WILL BE WITH LOW
PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 111940
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
240 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SNOW CHANCES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF THRU THE
EVE AS MDL PROGGED AND OBSERVED UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW LWRG TEMP
INVERSIONS...AND WKNG LAPSE RATES. BLDG HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
BRING CLRG SKIES TONIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD AVG AROUND 15 DEG BELOW
SEASONAL LVLS USING THE LATEST NR TERM CONSENSUS BLENDED
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE LWR OH VLY/MID ATLANTIC
RGN FRI BRINGING INCRG LGT SNOW CHCS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...IS EXPD TO CROSS THE RGN FRI EVE WITH
BETTER CHCS FOR SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
UNDER UPR TROFG AND LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT LATER FRI NGT AND
SAT...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPD TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA AS DRY ARCTIC AIR RESULTS IN UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE CONTENT
IN THE SNOW GROWTH RGN. BLDG HIGH PRESSURE SAT NGT/SUN SHOULD
BRING DRY WEATHER.

WIND WITH SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT AND COLD TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT
THRU SOMETIME SAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADVISORY LVL WIND CHILLS
ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA. DIMINISHING WINDS MAY PROVIDE FOR LESSER
CHCS OF WIND CHILL ADVISORIES SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...THOUGH TEMPS NR
OR BELOW ZERO ARE EXPD. TEMPS WERE MODIFIED SLIGHTLY FROM
SUPERBLENDED GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES MOVE TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES
TO START THE WEEK. MODELS HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS FOR SOUTHERN
STREAM STORM SYSTEM INTENSIFYING AND MOVING NORTHEAST LATER
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WPC PROGS AND
THE SUPERBLEND...WITH HIGHEST POPS INTO THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY WITH
CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE SEASONAL NORM. HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO GIVE A DRY DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL GIVE MVFR AT TIMES FOR NRN PORTS INTO
LATE AFTERNOON...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE TURNS THE FLOW AND BEGINS TO
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING FOR VFR CONDITIONS. WEST WINDS 10-15KTS
WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR WILL BE WITH LOW
PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 111757
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1257 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA TODAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST FRIDAY MORNING...THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
AND VIRGINIA COASTS AND OUT TO SEA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD/ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS THIS MORNING. ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEVELOPING WINTER STORM FOR FRI IS CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AT THE SFC...~1030MB HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST...RIDGING SEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
VERY DRY WITH PWATS AOB 0.2 INCHES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO AROUND 0 DEGREES. SHEAR AXIS OVER THE REGION HAS RESULTED
IN LITTLE MORE THAN MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE ERN SHORE. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY UNDER A SUNNY SKY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OH VALLEY. MAIN IMPACT TODAY WILL BE COLD
TEMPS...WITH HIGHS ONLY FORECAST IN THE LOW 30S NW TO UPPER 30S SE.
BREEZY WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH
ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE ERN SHORE. AS A RESULT...WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HI PRES WILL BLD OVR THE REGION TNGT INTO EARLY FRI MORNG...AS
UPR LVL ENERGY DIGS ESE FM THE UPR MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND
THE CAROLINAS. DRY/COLD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TNGT INTO AT LEAST
EARLY FRI MORNG. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WEAK SFC LO PRES ALONG THE SE CST FRI MORNG...WHICH THEN TRACKS
ENE OUT TO SEA FRI AFTN/NGT. 00Z/11 ECMWF REMAINS THE MODEL THAT
KEEPS DEEPEST MOISTURE WITH THAT SYSTEM S OF THE FA. BUT...WILL
CONTINUE TO BLEND THE 00Z/11 NAM/GFS AND CURRENT FCST...WHICH HAS
A PERIOD OF LGT SNOW POSSIBLE ACRS FAR SRN AND SE PORTIONS OF VA
AND ACRS NE NC (STARTING BETWEEN 15-18Z/12). MODEL SOUNDINGS
QUITE DRY BLO 5KFT AND EXPECTING SNOW RATIOS UPWARDS OF 15:1. QPF
ATTM AOB .10" ON AVERAGE. SOME SCT -SN WILL BE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE...AS THE TROF ALOFT SHARPENS INTO THE REGION FM THE
WNW. POPS WILL RANGE FM 40-60% SE...TO 15-25% ELSEWHERE. SNOW
ACCUMS AT THIS TIME ARE FCST TO BE AN INCH OR LESS...WITH THE ONE
INCH AMT CLOSER TO THE ALBEMARLE SND. DUE TO CLOUDS AND A COLD
START...EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LWR TO MID 30S.

VRBL CLUODS/POSSIBLE ISLTD -SNSH FRI EVENG...THEN STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE FA LATE FRI NGT/SAT MORNG...USHERING IN ADDITIONAL
ARCTIC AIR. POTENTIAL FOR BAY/OCEAN INDUCED SNSH...OTHERWISE
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SAT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS (TO 25-30
MPH). HI TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 20S NW TO 30-35F ELSEWHERE
(WIND CHILLS AVERAGING IN THE TEENS TO LWR 20S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG CAA WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT...AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. 850MB TEMPERATURES PLUMMET TO AROUND -20 TO
- 22C ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIRMASS SO
FAR THIS WINTER...AND IT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE
2015- 16 WINTER LOCALLY BASED ON THE FACT THAT IT WILL BE MID-
FEBRUARY AND THE 8-14 DAY CPC OUTLOOK INDICATES ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATER PORTION OF THE MONTH. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
WITH MID TEENS SE. A NW WIND (STRONGEST E) WILL DROP WIND CHILLS
BELOW 0F FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST
WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY. THE HIGH BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
LOW 20S NE...TO MID/UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY
SKY...ALTHOUGH BAY STREAMERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ATTENTION
TURNING TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. THERE
IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS. HOWEVER...A
TROUGH DOES DIG ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE COLD
AIR WILL SHALLOW AND RETREAT DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT WILL LIKELY
BE STUBBORN TO RETREAT TOO FAST. THE AMOUNT OF WINTRY PCPN WILL
DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK...WITH THE 10/12Z GFS/CMC SHOWING A
COLDER MORE SRN AND OFFSHORE TRACK...WITH TH3 10/12Z ECMWF
DEPICTING AN INLAND AND WARMER TRACK. DRYING OCCURS MIDWEEK IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE CLIPPING THE
AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GUSTY WNW WNDS TO 25-30 KT CONTG...XPCD TO WANE AFT
22Z/11...BECOMING NW OR VRB 6 KT OR LESS OVRNGT. OTRW...VRF/SKC
CONTG INTO THE OVRNGT HRS.

GRADUALLY LWRG CIGS...ESP ACRS SRN VA/NE NC FRI MRNG. HI
CHC/LIKELY PROB FOR -SN AND MVFR CONDS (PRIMARILY VSBYS)...MNLY
ORF/ECG AREA MIDDAY/AFTN FRI...ENDING IN THE EVE. DRY WX W/ GUSTY
NW WINDS TO 25-35KT RETURN BY SAT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
MONDAY AS SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS BRING A WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
STRNG SCA`S REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA DUE TO
MODEST CAA FROM A TIGHT PRS GRDNT BTWN DEPARTING S/W AND BLDG SFC
HIGH TO THE W. CAPPED WIND GUSTS AT 30 KTS. ADDED LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY OVER THE CHES BAY AND COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING GIVEN TMPS
AOB 30 DEGREES COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS. SEAS 4-5 FT GIVEN THE
OFFSHORE FLOW...HIGHEST OUT NR 20 NM. WNDS / WAVES / SEAS DMNSH THIS
EVE SO HAVE HEADLINES ENDG BTWN 23-06Z.

HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE FRI AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD BRING SOME REDUCED
VSBY IN SN FOR THE SRN COASTAL ZONES.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES THE COAST SATURDAY...WITH
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONG
CAA IS EXPECTED WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE NE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NW. GALE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY (GUSTS BTWN 35-40 KTS)...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE BAY AND OCEAN. ADDED FREEZING SPRAY SAT NIGHT TO THE CHES
BAY AND CSTL WTRS AS TMPS FCSTD TO PLUMMENT THRU THE 20S AND INTO
THE TEENS. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE
LEVEL FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LAST NITE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE WNW FLOW WILL ALLOW ANOMALIES TO FURTHER FALL. STRONG NW FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE BLOW-OUT TIDES
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ634-650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB/MPR
MARINE...MPR
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 111757
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1257 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA TODAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST FRIDAY MORNING...THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
AND VIRGINIA COASTS AND OUT TO SEA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD/ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS THIS MORNING. ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEVELOPING WINTER STORM FOR FRI IS CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AT THE SFC...~1030MB HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST...RIDGING SEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
VERY DRY WITH PWATS AOB 0.2 INCHES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO AROUND 0 DEGREES. SHEAR AXIS OVER THE REGION HAS RESULTED
IN LITTLE MORE THAN MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE ERN SHORE. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY UNDER A SUNNY SKY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OH VALLEY. MAIN IMPACT TODAY WILL BE COLD
TEMPS...WITH HIGHS ONLY FORECAST IN THE LOW 30S NW TO UPPER 30S SE.
BREEZY WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH
ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE ERN SHORE. AS A RESULT...WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HI PRES WILL BLD OVR THE REGION TNGT INTO EARLY FRI MORNG...AS
UPR LVL ENERGY DIGS ESE FM THE UPR MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND
THE CAROLINAS. DRY/COLD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TNGT INTO AT LEAST
EARLY FRI MORNG. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WEAK SFC LO PRES ALONG THE SE CST FRI MORNG...WHICH THEN TRACKS
ENE OUT TO SEA FRI AFTN/NGT. 00Z/11 ECMWF REMAINS THE MODEL THAT
KEEPS DEEPEST MOISTURE WITH THAT SYSTEM S OF THE FA. BUT...WILL
CONTINUE TO BLEND THE 00Z/11 NAM/GFS AND CURRENT FCST...WHICH HAS
A PERIOD OF LGT SNOW POSSIBLE ACRS FAR SRN AND SE PORTIONS OF VA
AND ACRS NE NC (STARTING BETWEEN 15-18Z/12). MODEL SOUNDINGS
QUITE DRY BLO 5KFT AND EXPECTING SNOW RATIOS UPWARDS OF 15:1. QPF
ATTM AOB .10" ON AVERAGE. SOME SCT -SN WILL BE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE...AS THE TROF ALOFT SHARPENS INTO THE REGION FM THE
WNW. POPS WILL RANGE FM 40-60% SE...TO 15-25% ELSEWHERE. SNOW
ACCUMS AT THIS TIME ARE FCST TO BE AN INCH OR LESS...WITH THE ONE
INCH AMT CLOSER TO THE ALBEMARLE SND. DUE TO CLOUDS AND A COLD
START...EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LWR TO MID 30S.

VRBL CLUODS/POSSIBLE ISLTD -SNSH FRI EVENG...THEN STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE FA LATE FRI NGT/SAT MORNG...USHERING IN ADDITIONAL
ARCTIC AIR. POTENTIAL FOR BAY/OCEAN INDUCED SNSH...OTHERWISE
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SAT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS (TO 25-30
MPH). HI TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 20S NW TO 30-35F ELSEWHERE
(WIND CHILLS AVERAGING IN THE TEENS TO LWR 20S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG CAA WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT...AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. 850MB TEMPERATURES PLUMMET TO AROUND -20 TO
- 22C ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIRMASS SO
FAR THIS WINTER...AND IT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE
2015- 16 WINTER LOCALLY BASED ON THE FACT THAT IT WILL BE MID-
FEBRUARY AND THE 8-14 DAY CPC OUTLOOK INDICATES ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATER PORTION OF THE MONTH. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
WITH MID TEENS SE. A NW WIND (STRONGEST E) WILL DROP WIND CHILLS
BELOW 0F FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST
WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY. THE HIGH BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
LOW 20S NE...TO MID/UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY
SKY...ALTHOUGH BAY STREAMERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ATTENTION
TURNING TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. THERE
IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS. HOWEVER...A
TROUGH DOES DIG ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE COLD
AIR WILL SHALLOW AND RETREAT DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT WILL LIKELY
BE STUBBORN TO RETREAT TOO FAST. THE AMOUNT OF WINTRY PCPN WILL
DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK...WITH THE 10/12Z GFS/CMC SHOWING A
COLDER MORE SRN AND OFFSHORE TRACK...WITH TH3 10/12Z ECMWF
DEPICTING AN INLAND AND WARMER TRACK. DRYING OCCURS MIDWEEK IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE CLIPPING THE
AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GUSTY WNW WNDS TO 25-30 KT CONTG...XPCD TO WANE AFT
22Z/11...BECOMING NW OR VRB 6 KT OR LESS OVRNGT. OTRW...VRF/SKC
CONTG INTO THE OVRNGT HRS.

GRADUALLY LWRG CIGS...ESP ACRS SRN VA/NE NC FRI MRNG. HI
CHC/LIKELY PROB FOR -SN AND MVFR CONDS (PRIMARILY VSBYS)...MNLY
ORF/ECG AREA MIDDAY/AFTN FRI...ENDING IN THE EVE. DRY WX W/ GUSTY
NW WINDS TO 25-35KT RETURN BY SAT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
MONDAY AS SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS BRING A WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
STRNG SCA`S REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA DUE TO
MODEST CAA FROM A TIGHT PRS GRDNT BTWN DEPARTING S/W AND BLDG SFC
HIGH TO THE W. CAPPED WIND GUSTS AT 30 KTS. ADDED LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY OVER THE CHES BAY AND COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING GIVEN TMPS
AOB 30 DEGREES COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS. SEAS 4-5 FT GIVEN THE
OFFSHORE FLOW...HIGHEST OUT NR 20 NM. WNDS / WAVES / SEAS DMNSH THIS
EVE SO HAVE HEADLINES ENDG BTWN 23-06Z.

HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE FRI AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD BRING SOME REDUCED
VSBY IN SN FOR THE SRN COASTAL ZONES.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES THE COAST SATURDAY...WITH
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONG
CAA IS EXPECTED WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE NE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NW. GALE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY (GUSTS BTWN 35-40 KTS)...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE BAY AND OCEAN. ADDED FREEZING SPRAY SAT NIGHT TO THE CHES
BAY AND CSTL WTRS AS TMPS FCSTD TO PLUMMENT THRU THE 20S AND INTO
THE TEENS. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE
LEVEL FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LAST NITE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE WNW FLOW WILL ALLOW ANOMALIES TO FURTHER FALL. STRONG NW FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE BLOW-OUT TIDES
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ634-650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB/MPR
MARINE...MPR
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 111757
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1257 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA TODAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST FRIDAY MORNING...THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
AND VIRGINIA COASTS AND OUT TO SEA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD/ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS THIS MORNING. ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEVELOPING WINTER STORM FOR FRI IS CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AT THE SFC...~1030MB HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST...RIDGING SEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
VERY DRY WITH PWATS AOB 0.2 INCHES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO AROUND 0 DEGREES. SHEAR AXIS OVER THE REGION HAS RESULTED
IN LITTLE MORE THAN MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE ERN SHORE. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY UNDER A SUNNY SKY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OH VALLEY. MAIN IMPACT TODAY WILL BE COLD
TEMPS...WITH HIGHS ONLY FORECAST IN THE LOW 30S NW TO UPPER 30S SE.
BREEZY WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH
ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE ERN SHORE. AS A RESULT...WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HI PRES WILL BLD OVR THE REGION TNGT INTO EARLY FRI MORNG...AS
UPR LVL ENERGY DIGS ESE FM THE UPR MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND
THE CAROLINAS. DRY/COLD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TNGT INTO AT LEAST
EARLY FRI MORNG. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WEAK SFC LO PRES ALONG THE SE CST FRI MORNG...WHICH THEN TRACKS
ENE OUT TO SEA FRI AFTN/NGT. 00Z/11 ECMWF REMAINS THE MODEL THAT
KEEPS DEEPEST MOISTURE WITH THAT SYSTEM S OF THE FA. BUT...WILL
CONTINUE TO BLEND THE 00Z/11 NAM/GFS AND CURRENT FCST...WHICH HAS
A PERIOD OF LGT SNOW POSSIBLE ACRS FAR SRN AND SE PORTIONS OF VA
AND ACRS NE NC (STARTING BETWEEN 15-18Z/12). MODEL SOUNDINGS
QUITE DRY BLO 5KFT AND EXPECTING SNOW RATIOS UPWARDS OF 15:1. QPF
ATTM AOB .10" ON AVERAGE. SOME SCT -SN WILL BE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE...AS THE TROF ALOFT SHARPENS INTO THE REGION FM THE
WNW. POPS WILL RANGE FM 40-60% SE...TO 15-25% ELSEWHERE. SNOW
ACCUMS AT THIS TIME ARE FCST TO BE AN INCH OR LESS...WITH THE ONE
INCH AMT CLOSER TO THE ALBEMARLE SND. DUE TO CLOUDS AND A COLD
START...EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LWR TO MID 30S.

VRBL CLUODS/POSSIBLE ISLTD -SNSH FRI EVENG...THEN STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE FA LATE FRI NGT/SAT MORNG...USHERING IN ADDITIONAL
ARCTIC AIR. POTENTIAL FOR BAY/OCEAN INDUCED SNSH...OTHERWISE
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SAT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS (TO 25-30
MPH). HI TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 20S NW TO 30-35F ELSEWHERE
(WIND CHILLS AVERAGING IN THE TEENS TO LWR 20S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG CAA WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT...AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. 850MB TEMPERATURES PLUMMET TO AROUND -20 TO
- 22C ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIRMASS SO
FAR THIS WINTER...AND IT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE
2015- 16 WINTER LOCALLY BASED ON THE FACT THAT IT WILL BE MID-
FEBRUARY AND THE 8-14 DAY CPC OUTLOOK INDICATES ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATER PORTION OF THE MONTH. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
WITH MID TEENS SE. A NW WIND (STRONGEST E) WILL DROP WIND CHILLS
BELOW 0F FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST
WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY. THE HIGH BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
LOW 20S NE...TO MID/UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY
SKY...ALTHOUGH BAY STREAMERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ATTENTION
TURNING TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. THERE
IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS. HOWEVER...A
TROUGH DOES DIG ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE COLD
AIR WILL SHALLOW AND RETREAT DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT WILL LIKELY
BE STUBBORN TO RETREAT TOO FAST. THE AMOUNT OF WINTRY PCPN WILL
DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK...WITH THE 10/12Z GFS/CMC SHOWING A
COLDER MORE SRN AND OFFSHORE TRACK...WITH TH3 10/12Z ECMWF
DEPICTING AN INLAND AND WARMER TRACK. DRYING OCCURS MIDWEEK IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE CLIPPING THE
AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GUSTY WNW WNDS TO 25-30 KT CONTG...XPCD TO WANE AFT
22Z/11...BECOMING NW OR VRB 6 KT OR LESS OVRNGT. OTRW...VRF/SKC
CONTG INTO THE OVRNGT HRS.

GRADUALLY LWRG CIGS...ESP ACRS SRN VA/NE NC FRI MRNG. HI
CHC/LIKELY PROB FOR -SN AND MVFR CONDS (PRIMARILY VSBYS)...MNLY
ORF/ECG AREA MIDDAY/AFTN FRI...ENDING IN THE EVE. DRY WX W/ GUSTY
NW WINDS TO 25-35KT RETURN BY SAT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
MONDAY AS SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS BRING A WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
STRNG SCA`S REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA DUE TO
MODEST CAA FROM A TIGHT PRS GRDNT BTWN DEPARTING S/W AND BLDG SFC
HIGH TO THE W. CAPPED WIND GUSTS AT 30 KTS. ADDED LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY OVER THE CHES BAY AND COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING GIVEN TMPS
AOB 30 DEGREES COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS. SEAS 4-5 FT GIVEN THE
OFFSHORE FLOW...HIGHEST OUT NR 20 NM. WNDS / WAVES / SEAS DMNSH THIS
EVE SO HAVE HEADLINES ENDG BTWN 23-06Z.

HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE FRI AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD BRING SOME REDUCED
VSBY IN SN FOR THE SRN COASTAL ZONES.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES THE COAST SATURDAY...WITH
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONG
CAA IS EXPECTED WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE NE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NW. GALE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY (GUSTS BTWN 35-40 KTS)...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE BAY AND OCEAN. ADDED FREEZING SPRAY SAT NIGHT TO THE CHES
BAY AND CSTL WTRS AS TMPS FCSTD TO PLUMMENT THRU THE 20S AND INTO
THE TEENS. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE
LEVEL FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LAST NITE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE WNW FLOW WILL ALLOW ANOMALIES TO FURTHER FALL. STRONG NW FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE BLOW-OUT TIDES
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ634-650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB/MPR
MARINE...MPR
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 111714
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1214 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND THEN
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY, ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY. THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1140 AM ESTF: HAVE UPDATED THE AFTN PACKAGE AND ONLY CHANGES
FORTHCOMING WITH THE STANDARD 1230PM MIGHT BE A SLIGHT UPWARD
ADJUSTMENT OF SNOW AMTS IN THE POCONOS AND SUSSEX COUNTY NJ. WE
HAVE WIDESPREAD 1/2 INCH IN THE GRIDS FOR THE REGION I-78 NORTH
BUT THE LEGACY READS FOR THE MOST PART, LITTLE OR NO.

"HEAVY" WORDING NOW RESERVED FOR I-78 REGION NORTH THIS AFTN.

UPDATED SNOW MAP POSTED.

COLD... MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MID SHIFT TEMPS AND DEWS. WINDS
WERE BOOSTED ABOUT 5 MPH ON THE LAND....GUSTS 25-35 MPH.

THE SCIENCE BEHIND THE SNOW SHOWERS...EXTREME AND MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD POOL UP THROUGH MID
LVLS--- ROUGHLY 500MB. BOTH THE BGM WINDEX TOOL AND THE BTV SNOWSQL
PARM TOOLS SHOW HUGE VALUES BOTH THIS MORNING, THIS AFTERNOON AND
PROBABLY AGAIN SATURDAY WITH REAL DEAL TRUE ARCTIC PLUNGE.

TONIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS TRAIL OUT TO SEA AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
AS THE SFC HEATING WANES AND THE COLD POOL ALOFT WARMS A BIT. SKIES
CLEAR MOST OF THE AREA AND WINDS DIMINISH AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
POKES FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN WITH SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING ON TODAYS
FRESHENED SNOW COVER. WE WILL RUN A 50 50 BLEND OF 12Z/11 GFS/NAM
MOS BUT WILL PROBABLY ALLOW FOR COOLER THAN THIS FCST BY SEVERAL
DEGREES OVER E PA AND NW NJ RADIATORS. SHOULD GET CLOSE TO 3 ABOVE
IN PARTS OF E PA RADIATIORS PER GFS 2M TEMPS. WESTERLY WINDS
BECOME LIGHT LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
SUNNY, THEN INCREASING CLOUDS...MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS TURN SW
AND THE UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE STILL OPEN WATERS OF THE BAYS MAY
YIELD SOME BAY EFFECT FLURRIES LATE IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE, SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE WAA PATTERN IN PA COULD DEVELOP FLURRIES OR SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE POCONOS AFTER 5 PM.  SW WIND.

50 50 BLENDED 12Z/11 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUR UPDATED BRIEFING PACKAGE AT MIDDAY WILL INCLUDE MORE INFORMATION
ON THE UPCOMING DANGEROUS COLD, INCLUDING A POSSIBLE WIND CHILL
WATCH FOR SAT NIGHT WHICH IS ALREADY A HIGH CONFIDENCE LIKELIHOOD.

THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE BOTH THE PROSPECTS FOR THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON CENTERED ON SUNDAY MORNING AND A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP.
THESE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER AN INCH.

BEHIND THE FRONT, IT WILL BE A VERY COLD AND WINDY PERIOD WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE NW FLOW OFF OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE FAVORED REGIONS TO
SEE SNOW SHOWERS ARE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS OF EASTERN PA AND
NW NJ. BUFKIT ANALYSIS YIELDS THE POTENTIAL FOR 30-40 MPH GUSTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE GUST POTENTIAL. THE STRONG CAA WILL NOT ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE MUCH DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. MODELING HAS BEEN HOLDING STEADY ON THE
IDEA THAT 850 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE BELOW -25C. WILL
NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE DEGREE OF THE COLD AIR
BEING MODELED. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS, THOUGH NOT AS STRONG
AS ON SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.
THE COLD AND WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS FROM -10 TO -30 BELOW
ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. PLEASE TO MAKE SURE TO
PREPARE FOR THE COLD WEATHER THAT IS COMING. PREPARATIONS INCLUDE
CHECKING PIPES AND MAKING SURE YOUR VEHICLE IS IN GOOD WORKING
CONDITION. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY NEAR OR
BELOW ZERO AS WELL. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION ON RECORD
POTENTIAL.

PRESIDENTS DAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS
CURRENTLY MODELED TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. THE 00Z 2/11 OPERATIONAL
MODELS HAVE NARROWED THE GOAL POSTS OF POSSIBLE TRACKS FROM
EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THIS ALSO MATCHES OR IS JUST EAST OF THE 12Z
2/10 ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACK. THIS TRACK GOES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
AL/GA NORTHEAST TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINE THEN DUE NORTH UP THE
EAST COAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TWO MAIN FEATURES ARE
PRESENT TO TRACK WITH REGARDS TO MODELS OR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES
CHANGING THE FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IN FUTURE RUNS. THIS
FIRST IS A LEADING SHORTWAVE WHICH MOVES INTO THE THE OHIO VALLEY
ON MONDAY AND THE SECOND IS THE DEGREE OF MID- LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
THAT OCCUR AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WOULD
TEND TO PUSH THE OVERALL TROUGH WITH THIS STORM FURTHER EAST.
WHILE A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER MID- LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES LEADING TO A FURTHER WEST TRACK OF THE LOW. RIGHT NOW THE
FAVORED TRACK WOULD RESULT IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. IT WILL LIKELY BE WINDY AS WELL WITH THE
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NEAR THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY: THE REGION SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AS
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION.
SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AS 2/11 00Z ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER SYSTEM
INTO THE REGION BY THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. BRIEF IFR CONDS IN SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOP KTTN/KRDG AND KABE DURING MID AFTN AND MAY SLIP
SOUTH TO VCNTY KPHL AND KACY AROUND 22Z. WEST WIND GUSTY AROUND 30
KT, ISOLATED 35 KT.

SNOW SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH EXTREMELY LARGE AND MOIST LOW
LVL LAPSE RATES. ALSO AIDING MAY BE THE LAKE ERIE MOISTURE PLUME
(RECENTLY LARGELY NON ICE COVERED).

WEST WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO 30 KT BY 16Z. ISOLATED 35 KT POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 4000 FT DURING THE EVENING BECOMING
CLEAR. ANY LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END BY 02Z. GUSTY WNW WINDS
20-30 KT SLOWLY DIMINISHING DURING THE NIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR. CIRRUS CIGS ARRIVE AND THEN LOWER DURING THE AFTN.
SW WIND.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 25 KNOTS.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY THEN BECOMING MVFR AND
IFR BY EVENING WITH RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
GALES IN PROGRESS AND GLW CONTINUES AS POSTED. AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED
FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE OVER NIGHT HOURS ONCE THE GALES SUBSIDE.

LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS OCCURRING AND CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED ON
THE BAY AS WELL AS THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

FRIDAY NO HEADLINE! A GOOD DAY TO FINISH UP ANY MARINE RELATED ACTIVITY.

OUTLOOK...

OUR MID AFTERNOON MARINE PRODUCTS WILL HEADLINE A NEW HIGH CONFIDENCE
GALE WATCH FOR THE PERIOD ROUGHLY 4 AM SATURDAY THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY.

SO WHILE, SEAS AND WINDS WILL START OUT FAIRLY LIGHT ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, A QUICK RAMP UP IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND REACH GALE FORCE BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE GALE FORCE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE FOR GALES ON SATURDAY IS
VERY HIGH. SEAS WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET FOR A PERIOD AS
WELL ON SATURDAY. SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE ON
SUNDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY START INCREASING AGAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN SEVERAL
DEGREES OF ZERO (WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY EXCEPT COLDER KMPO (NEAR -12F). THIS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/ECMWF 2M TEMPS CYCLICALLY SINCE AT LEAST THE
00Z/7 OPERATIONAL CYCLES. THEREFORE, BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD
EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY THE 14TH WOULD BE KABE,
KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

SNOW COVER MAY HELP A BIT I-95 NORTHWESTWARD...AND WE`LL SEE
WHERE WE ARE WITH SNOW COVER BY THURSDAY EVENING. NEW DUSTINGS
APPEAR ON THE WAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

PLEASE NOTE... GUIDANCE IN PART IS BEING CLIMO BIASED HIGHER THAN
WHAT THE ONCOMING GFS/ECMWF LITERAL AIRMASS AND 2M TEMPS ARE INDICATING
FOR SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING IN THE URBAN AREAS SHOULD
BE ABOUT 25 COLDER THAN NORMAL. THAT MEANS GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR PHL
OF 5 AND 6 DEGREES APPEAR TOO WARM...ESPECIALLY WITH A NORMAL
PHILADELPHIA LOW ON SUNDAY OF 28.

HAVE SEEN THE 12Z/11 2M TEMPS FOR PHL...1 ABOVE RANGING DOWN TO
-11 AT KMPO AND AM LIKING THOSE VALUES AS WITHIN 2F OF THE
UPCOMING REALITY.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE
14TH, IF THEN.  THOSE HAVE BEEN ADDED RECENTLY BELOW.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH ----RER LOW MAX
---------------------- --------------------

ABE             8                         -1 IN 1979     14-1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979     13-1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979     14-1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979     13-1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

SO, THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY 30 BELOW IN
THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...DRAG 1214
SHORT TERM...DRAG 1214
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES 1214
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES 1214
CLIMATE...1214




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 111700
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1200 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END LATER TODAY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
A FRIDAY COLD FRONT WILL RETURN SNOW CHANCES...WITH MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UNORGANIZED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATER
TODAY AS MDL PROGGED AND OBSERVED UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW LWRG
TEMP INVERSIONS. WHILE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN SOME
AREAS...ADDNL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPD TO BE MAINLY LESS THAN AN
INCH AND THUS CANCELLED THE REMAINING ADVISORY. BLDG HIGH PRESSURE
LT TODAY/TONIGHT SHOULD BRING CLRG SKIES. TEMPS 15 TO 20 DEG BELOW
AVG ARE EXPD USING THE LATEST NR TERM CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO APPROACH FRI BRINGING INCRG SNOW
SHOWER CHCS. THIS WAVE IS EXPD TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT
LT FRI. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE UNDER UPR TROFG AND
LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT FRI NGT AND SAT...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPD TO REMAIN BELOW ADVY CRITERIA AS DRY ARCTIC AIR RESULTS
IN UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE SNOW GROWTH RGN. BLDG HIGH
PRESSURE SUN SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER.

WIND WITH SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT AND COLD TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADVISORY LVL WIND CHILLS ACRS MUCH
OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...WELL BELOW AVG TEMPS ARE EXPD WITH
READINGS NR OR BELOW ZERO SAT NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS STILL HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
MOVING IN SUNDAY NIGHT. TIMING IS NOW FAIRLY CONSISTENT ACROSS THE
GUIDANCE...BUT THE ECMWF QUICKLY WEAKENS THE WAVE UPON ARRIVAL.
STILL...EXPECTING AT LEAST A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY.

MODELS NOW SHOW ANOTHER DEEPER WAVE IN THE WAKE OF THE MONDAY
SYSTEM. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK INTO
THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY. WILL
NEED SEVERAL MORE MODEL CYCLE TO SORT OUT THOSE DETAILS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL GIVE MVFR AT TIMES FOR NRN PORTS INTO
LATE AFTERNOON...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE TURNS THE FLOW AND BEGINS TO
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING FOR VFR CONDITIONS. WEST WINDS 10-15KTS
WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR WILL BE WITH LOW
PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 111700
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1200 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END LATER TODAY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
A FRIDAY COLD FRONT WILL RETURN SNOW CHANCES...WITH MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UNORGANIZED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATER
TODAY AS MDL PROGGED AND OBSERVED UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW LWRG
TEMP INVERSIONS. WHILE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN SOME
AREAS...ADDNL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPD TO BE MAINLY LESS THAN AN
INCH AND THUS CANCELLED THE REMAINING ADVISORY. BLDG HIGH PRESSURE
LT TODAY/TONIGHT SHOULD BRING CLRG SKIES. TEMPS 15 TO 20 DEG BELOW
AVG ARE EXPD USING THE LATEST NR TERM CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO APPROACH FRI BRINGING INCRG SNOW
SHOWER CHCS. THIS WAVE IS EXPD TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT
LT FRI. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE UNDER UPR TROFG AND
LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT FRI NGT AND SAT...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPD TO REMAIN BELOW ADVY CRITERIA AS DRY ARCTIC AIR RESULTS
IN UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE SNOW GROWTH RGN. BLDG HIGH
PRESSURE SUN SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER.

WIND WITH SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT AND COLD TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADVISORY LVL WIND CHILLS ACRS MUCH
OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...WELL BELOW AVG TEMPS ARE EXPD WITH
READINGS NR OR BELOW ZERO SAT NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS STILL HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
MOVING IN SUNDAY NIGHT. TIMING IS NOW FAIRLY CONSISTENT ACROSS THE
GUIDANCE...BUT THE ECMWF QUICKLY WEAKENS THE WAVE UPON ARRIVAL.
STILL...EXPECTING AT LEAST A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY.

MODELS NOW SHOW ANOTHER DEEPER WAVE IN THE WAKE OF THE MONDAY
SYSTEM. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK INTO
THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY. WILL
NEED SEVERAL MORE MODEL CYCLE TO SORT OUT THOSE DETAILS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL GIVE MVFR AT TIMES FOR NRN PORTS INTO
LATE AFTERNOON...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE TURNS THE FLOW AND BEGINS TO
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING FOR VFR CONDITIONS. WEST WINDS 10-15KTS
WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR WILL BE WITH LOW
PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 111700
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1200 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END LATER TODAY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
A FRIDAY COLD FRONT WILL RETURN SNOW CHANCES...WITH MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UNORGANIZED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATER
TODAY AS MDL PROGGED AND OBSERVED UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW LWRG
TEMP INVERSIONS. WHILE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN SOME
AREAS...ADDNL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPD TO BE MAINLY LESS THAN AN
INCH AND THUS CANCELLED THE REMAINING ADVISORY. BLDG HIGH PRESSURE
LT TODAY/TONIGHT SHOULD BRING CLRG SKIES. TEMPS 15 TO 20 DEG BELOW
AVG ARE EXPD USING THE LATEST NR TERM CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO APPROACH FRI BRINGING INCRG SNOW
SHOWER CHCS. THIS WAVE IS EXPD TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT
LT FRI. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE UNDER UPR TROFG AND
LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT FRI NGT AND SAT...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPD TO REMAIN BELOW ADVY CRITERIA AS DRY ARCTIC AIR RESULTS
IN UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE SNOW GROWTH RGN. BLDG HIGH
PRESSURE SUN SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER.

WIND WITH SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT AND COLD TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADVISORY LVL WIND CHILLS ACRS MUCH
OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...WELL BELOW AVG TEMPS ARE EXPD WITH
READINGS NR OR BELOW ZERO SAT NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS STILL HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
MOVING IN SUNDAY NIGHT. TIMING IS NOW FAIRLY CONSISTENT ACROSS THE
GUIDANCE...BUT THE ECMWF QUICKLY WEAKENS THE WAVE UPON ARRIVAL.
STILL...EXPECTING AT LEAST A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY.

MODELS NOW SHOW ANOTHER DEEPER WAVE IN THE WAKE OF THE MONDAY
SYSTEM. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK INTO
THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY. WILL
NEED SEVERAL MORE MODEL CYCLE TO SORT OUT THOSE DETAILS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL GIVE MVFR AT TIMES FOR NRN PORTS INTO
LATE AFTERNOON...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE TURNS THE FLOW AND BEGINS TO
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING FOR VFR CONDITIONS. WEST WINDS 10-15KTS
WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR WILL BE WITH LOW
PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 111610
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1110 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END LATER TODAY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
A FRIDAY COLD FRONT WILL RETURN SNOW CHANCES...WITH MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UNORGANIZED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATER
TODAY AS MDL PROGGED AND OBSERVED UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW LWRG
TEMP INVERSIONS. WHILE SNOW SHOWERS CONTIUNE IN SOME
AREAS...ADDNL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPD TO BE MAINLY LESS THAN AN
INCH AND THUS CANCELLED THE REMAINING ADVISORY. BLDG HIGH
PRESSURE LT TODAY/TONIGHT SHOULD BRING CLRG SKIES. TEMPS 15 TO 20
DEG BELOW AVG ARE EXPD USING THE LATEST NR TERM CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO APPROACH FRI BRINGING INCRG SNOW
SHOWER CHCS. THIS WAVE IS EXPD TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT
LT FRI. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE UNDER UPR TROFG AND
LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT FRI NGT AND SAT...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPD TO REMAIN BELOW ADVY CRITERIA AS DRY ARCTIC AIR RESULTS
IN UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE SNOW GROWTH RGN. BLDG HIGH
PRESSURE SUN SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER.

WIND WITH SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT AND COLD TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADVISORY LVL WIND CHILLS ACRS MUCH
OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...WELL BELOW AVG TEMPS ARE EXPD WITH
READINGS NR OR BELOW ZERO SAT NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS STILL HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
MOVING IN SUNDAY NIGHT. TIMING IS NOW FAIRLY CONSISTENT ACROSS THE
GUIDANCE...BUT THE ECMWF QUICKLY WEAKENS THE WAVE UPON ARRIVAL.
STILL...EXPECTING AT LEAST A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY.

MODELS NOW SHOW ANOTHER DEEPER WAVE IN THE WAKE OF THE MONDAY
SYSTEM. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK INTO
THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY. WILL
NEED SEVERAL MORE MODEL CYCLE TO SORT OUT THOSE DETAILS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW SQUALLS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BETWEEN KBVI AND KFKL THROUGH THE
MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. LOCAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
MOST SITES...HOWEVER NO HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD AFFECT ANY
SITE. CIGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY AT MOST SITES BY TONIGHT

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER
COLD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING. WHILE THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY SHOULD
BE GENERALLY DRY...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 111610
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1110 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END LATER TODAY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
A FRIDAY COLD FRONT WILL RETURN SNOW CHANCES...WITH MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UNORGANIZED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATER
TODAY AS MDL PROGGED AND OBSERVED UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW LWRG
TEMP INVERSIONS. WHILE SNOW SHOWERS CONTIUNE IN SOME
AREAS...ADDNL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPD TO BE MAINLY LESS THAN AN
INCH AND THUS CANCELLED THE REMAINING ADVISORY. BLDG HIGH
PRESSURE LT TODAY/TONIGHT SHOULD BRING CLRG SKIES. TEMPS 15 TO 20
DEG BELOW AVG ARE EXPD USING THE LATEST NR TERM CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO APPROACH FRI BRINGING INCRG SNOW
SHOWER CHCS. THIS WAVE IS EXPD TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT
LT FRI. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE UNDER UPR TROFG AND
LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT FRI NGT AND SAT...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPD TO REMAIN BELOW ADVY CRITERIA AS DRY ARCTIC AIR RESULTS
IN UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE SNOW GROWTH RGN. BLDG HIGH
PRESSURE SUN SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER.

WIND WITH SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT AND COLD TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADVISORY LVL WIND CHILLS ACRS MUCH
OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...WELL BELOW AVG TEMPS ARE EXPD WITH
READINGS NR OR BELOW ZERO SAT NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS STILL HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
MOVING IN SUNDAY NIGHT. TIMING IS NOW FAIRLY CONSISTENT ACROSS THE
GUIDANCE...BUT THE ECMWF QUICKLY WEAKENS THE WAVE UPON ARRIVAL.
STILL...EXPECTING AT LEAST A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY.

MODELS NOW SHOW ANOTHER DEEPER WAVE IN THE WAKE OF THE MONDAY
SYSTEM. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK INTO
THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY. WILL
NEED SEVERAL MORE MODEL CYCLE TO SORT OUT THOSE DETAILS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW SQUALLS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BETWEEN KBVI AND KFKL THROUGH THE
MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. LOCAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
MOST SITES...HOWEVER NO HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD AFFECT ANY
SITE. CIGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY AT MOST SITES BY TONIGHT

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER
COLD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING. WHILE THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY SHOULD
BE GENERALLY DRY...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 111610
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1110 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END LATER TODAY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
A FRIDAY COLD FRONT WILL RETURN SNOW CHANCES...WITH MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UNORGANIZED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATER
TODAY AS MDL PROGGED AND OBSERVED UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW LWRG
TEMP INVERSIONS. WHILE SNOW SHOWERS CONTIUNE IN SOME
AREAS...ADDNL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPD TO BE MAINLY LESS THAN AN
INCH AND THUS CANCELLED THE REMAINING ADVISORY. BLDG HIGH
PRESSURE LT TODAY/TONIGHT SHOULD BRING CLRG SKIES. TEMPS 15 TO 20
DEG BELOW AVG ARE EXPD USING THE LATEST NR TERM CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO APPROACH FRI BRINGING INCRG SNOW
SHOWER CHCS. THIS WAVE IS EXPD TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT
LT FRI. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE UNDER UPR TROFG AND
LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT FRI NGT AND SAT...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPD TO REMAIN BELOW ADVY CRITERIA AS DRY ARCTIC AIR RESULTS
IN UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE SNOW GROWTH RGN. BLDG HIGH
PRESSURE SUN SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER.

WIND WITH SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT AND COLD TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADVISORY LVL WIND CHILLS ACRS MUCH
OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...WELL BELOW AVG TEMPS ARE EXPD WITH
READINGS NR OR BELOW ZERO SAT NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS STILL HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
MOVING IN SUNDAY NIGHT. TIMING IS NOW FAIRLY CONSISTENT ACROSS THE
GUIDANCE...BUT THE ECMWF QUICKLY WEAKENS THE WAVE UPON ARRIVAL.
STILL...EXPECTING AT LEAST A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY.

MODELS NOW SHOW ANOTHER DEEPER WAVE IN THE WAKE OF THE MONDAY
SYSTEM. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK INTO
THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY. WILL
NEED SEVERAL MORE MODEL CYCLE TO SORT OUT THOSE DETAILS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW SQUALLS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BETWEEN KBVI AND KFKL THROUGH THE
MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. LOCAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
MOST SITES...HOWEVER NO HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD AFFECT ANY
SITE. CIGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY AT MOST SITES BY TONIGHT

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER
COLD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING. WHILE THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY SHOULD
BE GENERALLY DRY...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 111549
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1049 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA TODAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST FRIDAY MORNING...THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
AND VIRGINIA COASTS AND OUT TO SEA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD/ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS THIS MORNING. ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEVELOPING WINTER STORM FOR FRI IS CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AT THE SFC...~1030MB HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST...RIDGING SEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
VERY DRY WITH PWATS AOB 0.2 INCHES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO AROUND 0 DEGREES. SHEAR AXIS OVER THE REGION HAS RESULTED
IN LITTLE MORE THAN MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE ERN SHORE. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY UNDER A SUNNY SKY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OH VALLEY. MAIN IMPACT TODAY WILL BE COLD
TEMPS...WITH HIGHS ONLY FORECAST IN THE LOW 30S NW TO UPPER 30S SE.
BREEZY WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH
ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE ERN SHORE. AS A RESULT...WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HI PRES WILL BLD OVR THE REGION TNGT INTO EARLY FRI MORNG...AS
UPR LVL ENERGY DIGS ESE FM THE UPR MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND
THE CAROLINAS. DRY/COLD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TNGT INTO AT LEAST
EARLY FRI MORNG. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WEAK SFC LO PRES ALONG THE SE CST FRI MORNG...WHICH THEN TRACKS
ENE OUT TO SEA FRI AFTN/NGT. 00Z/11 ECMWF REMAINS THE MODEL THAT
KEEPS DEEPEST MOISTURE WITH THAT SYSTEM S OF THE FA. BUT...WILL
CONTINUE TO BLEND THE 00Z/11 NAM/GFS AND CURRENT FCST...WHICH HAS
A PERIOD OF LGT SNOW POSSIBLE ACRS FAR SRN AND SE PORTIONS OF VA
AND ACRS NE NC (STARTING BETWEEN 15-18Z/12). MODEL SOUNDINGS
QUITE DRY BLO 5KFT AND EXPECTING SNOW RATIOS UPWARDS OF 15:1. QPF
ATTM AOB .10" ON AVERAGE. SOME SCT -SN WILL BE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE...AS THE TROF ALOFT SHARPENS INTO THE REGION FM THE
WNW. POPS WILL RANGE FM 40-60% SE...TO 15-25% ELSEWHERE. SNOW
ACCUMS AT THIS TIME ARE FCST TO BE AN INCH OR LESS...WITH THE ONE
INCH AMT CLOSER TO THE ALBEMARLE SND. DUE TO CLOUDS AND A COLD
START...EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LWR TO MID 30S.

VRBL CLUODS/POSSIBLE ISLTD -SNSH FRI EVENG...THEN STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE FA LATE FRI NGT/SAT MORNG...USHERING IN ADDITIONAL
ARCTIC AIR. POTENTIAL FOR BAY/OCEAN INDUCED SNSH...OTHERWISE
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SAT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS (TO 25-30
MPH). HI TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 20S NW TO 30-35F ELSEWHERE
(WIND CHILLS AVERAGING IN THE TEENS TO LWR 20S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG CAA WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT...AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. 850MB TEMPERATURES PLUMMET TO AROUND -20 TO
- 22C ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIRMASS SO
FAR THIS WINTER...AND IT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE
2015- 16 WINTER LOCALLY BASED ON THE FACT THAT IT WILL BE MID-
FEBRUARY AND THE 8-14 DAY CPC OUTLOOK INDICATES ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATER PORTION OF THE MONTH. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
WITH MID TEENS SE. A NW WIND (STRONGEST E) WILL DROP WIND CHILLS
BELOW 0F FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST
WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY. THE HIGH BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
LOW 20S NE...TO MID/UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY
SKY...ALTHOUGH BAY STREAMERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ATTENTION
TURNING TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. THERE
IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS. HOWEVER...A
TROUGH DOES DIG ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE COLD
AIR WILL SHALLOW AND RETREAT DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT WILL LIKELY
BE STUBBORN TO RETREAT TOO FAST. THE AMOUNT OF WINTRY PCPN WILL
DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK...WITH THE 10/12Z GFS/CMC SHOWING A
COLDER MORE SRN AND OFFSHORE TRACK...WITH TH3 10/12Z ECMWF
DEPICTING AN INLAND AND WARMER TRACK. DRYING OCCURS MIDWEEK IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE CLIPPING THE
AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRS BUILDS IN FROM THE W RESULTING IN MAINLY SKC. SCT "BAY
STREAMER" SC ARE PSBL. TIGHT PRS GRDNT FROM THE HIGH RESULTS IN
BREEZY CNDTNS WITH W WNDS BTWN 15-25 KTS THRU 22Z. WNDS QUICKLY
DMNSH BY SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW MAINLY ORF/ECG
AREA LATE FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH GUSTY NW WINDS RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST BY MONDAY MORNING.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW MONDAY AS SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH WINDS BRING A WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
STRNG SCA`S REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA DUE TO
MODEST CAA FROM A TIGHT PRS GRDNT BTWN DEPARTING S/W AND BLDG SFC
HIGH TO THE W. CAPPED WIND GUSTS AT 30 KTS. ADDED LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY OVER THE CHES BAY AND COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING GIVEN TMPS
AOB 30 DEGREES COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS. SEAS 4-5 FT GIVEN THE
OFFSHORE FLOW...HIGHEST OUT NR 20 NM. WNDS / WAVES / SEAS DMNSH THIS
EVE SO HAVE HEADLINES ENDG BTWN 23-06Z.

HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE FRI AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD BRING SOME REDUCED
VSBY IN SN FOR THE SRN COASTAL ZONES.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES THE COAST SATURDAY...WITH
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONG
CAA IS EXPECTED WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE NE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NW. GALE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY (GUSTS BTWN 35-40 KTS)...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE BAY AND OCEAN. ADDED FREEZING SPRAY SAT NIGHT TO THE CHES
BAY AND CSTL WTRS AS TMPS FCSTD TO PLUMMENT THRU THE 20S AND INTO
THE TEENS. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE
LEVEL FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LAST NITE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE WNW FLOW WILL ALLOW ANOMALIES TO FURTHER FALL. STRONG NW FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE BLOW-OUT TIDES
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ634-650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 111549
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1049 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA TODAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST FRIDAY MORNING...THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
AND VIRGINIA COASTS AND OUT TO SEA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD/ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS THIS MORNING. ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEVELOPING WINTER STORM FOR FRI IS CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AT THE SFC...~1030MB HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST...RIDGING SEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
VERY DRY WITH PWATS AOB 0.2 INCHES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO AROUND 0 DEGREES. SHEAR AXIS OVER THE REGION HAS RESULTED
IN LITTLE MORE THAN MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE ERN SHORE. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY UNDER A SUNNY SKY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OH VALLEY. MAIN IMPACT TODAY WILL BE COLD
TEMPS...WITH HIGHS ONLY FORECAST IN THE LOW 30S NW TO UPPER 30S SE.
BREEZY WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH
ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE ERN SHORE. AS A RESULT...WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HI PRES WILL BLD OVR THE REGION TNGT INTO EARLY FRI MORNG...AS
UPR LVL ENERGY DIGS ESE FM THE UPR MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND
THE CAROLINAS. DRY/COLD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TNGT INTO AT LEAST
EARLY FRI MORNG. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WEAK SFC LO PRES ALONG THE SE CST FRI MORNG...WHICH THEN TRACKS
ENE OUT TO SEA FRI AFTN/NGT. 00Z/11 ECMWF REMAINS THE MODEL THAT
KEEPS DEEPEST MOISTURE WITH THAT SYSTEM S OF THE FA. BUT...WILL
CONTINUE TO BLEND THE 00Z/11 NAM/GFS AND CURRENT FCST...WHICH HAS
A PERIOD OF LGT SNOW POSSIBLE ACRS FAR SRN AND SE PORTIONS OF VA
AND ACRS NE NC (STARTING BETWEEN 15-18Z/12). MODEL SOUNDINGS
QUITE DRY BLO 5KFT AND EXPECTING SNOW RATIOS UPWARDS OF 15:1. QPF
ATTM AOB .10" ON AVERAGE. SOME SCT -SN WILL BE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE...AS THE TROF ALOFT SHARPENS INTO THE REGION FM THE
WNW. POPS WILL RANGE FM 40-60% SE...TO 15-25% ELSEWHERE. SNOW
ACCUMS AT THIS TIME ARE FCST TO BE AN INCH OR LESS...WITH THE ONE
INCH AMT CLOSER TO THE ALBEMARLE SND. DUE TO CLOUDS AND A COLD
START...EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LWR TO MID 30S.

VRBL CLUODS/POSSIBLE ISLTD -SNSH FRI EVENG...THEN STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE FA LATE FRI NGT/SAT MORNG...USHERING IN ADDITIONAL
ARCTIC AIR. POTENTIAL FOR BAY/OCEAN INDUCED SNSH...OTHERWISE
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SAT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS (TO 25-30
MPH). HI TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 20S NW TO 30-35F ELSEWHERE
(WIND CHILLS AVERAGING IN THE TEENS TO LWR 20S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG CAA WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT...AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. 850MB TEMPERATURES PLUMMET TO AROUND -20 TO
- 22C ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIRMASS SO
FAR THIS WINTER...AND IT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE
2015- 16 WINTER LOCALLY BASED ON THE FACT THAT IT WILL BE MID-
FEBRUARY AND THE 8-14 DAY CPC OUTLOOK INDICATES ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATER PORTION OF THE MONTH. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
WITH MID TEENS SE. A NW WIND (STRONGEST E) WILL DROP WIND CHILLS
BELOW 0F FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST
WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY. THE HIGH BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
LOW 20S NE...TO MID/UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY
SKY...ALTHOUGH BAY STREAMERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ATTENTION
TURNING TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. THERE
IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS. HOWEVER...A
TROUGH DOES DIG ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE COLD
AIR WILL SHALLOW AND RETREAT DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT WILL LIKELY
BE STUBBORN TO RETREAT TOO FAST. THE AMOUNT OF WINTRY PCPN WILL
DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK...WITH THE 10/12Z GFS/CMC SHOWING A
COLDER MORE SRN AND OFFSHORE TRACK...WITH TH3 10/12Z ECMWF
DEPICTING AN INLAND AND WARMER TRACK. DRYING OCCURS MIDWEEK IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE CLIPPING THE
AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRS BUILDS IN FROM THE W RESULTING IN MAINLY SKC. SCT "BAY
STREAMER" SC ARE PSBL. TIGHT PRS GRDNT FROM THE HIGH RESULTS IN
BREEZY CNDTNS WITH W WNDS BTWN 15-25 KTS THRU 22Z. WNDS QUICKLY
DMNSH BY SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW MAINLY ORF/ECG
AREA LATE FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH GUSTY NW WINDS RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST BY MONDAY MORNING.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW MONDAY AS SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH WINDS BRING A WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
STRNG SCA`S REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA DUE TO
MODEST CAA FROM A TIGHT PRS GRDNT BTWN DEPARTING S/W AND BLDG SFC
HIGH TO THE W. CAPPED WIND GUSTS AT 30 KTS. ADDED LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY OVER THE CHES BAY AND COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING GIVEN TMPS
AOB 30 DEGREES COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS. SEAS 4-5 FT GIVEN THE
OFFSHORE FLOW...HIGHEST OUT NR 20 NM. WNDS / WAVES / SEAS DMNSH THIS
EVE SO HAVE HEADLINES ENDG BTWN 23-06Z.

HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE FRI AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD BRING SOME REDUCED
VSBY IN SN FOR THE SRN COASTAL ZONES.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES THE COAST SATURDAY...WITH
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONG
CAA IS EXPECTED WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE NE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NW. GALE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY (GUSTS BTWN 35-40 KTS)...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE BAY AND OCEAN. ADDED FREEZING SPRAY SAT NIGHT TO THE CHES
BAY AND CSTL WTRS AS TMPS FCSTD TO PLUMMENT THRU THE 20S AND INTO
THE TEENS. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE
LEVEL FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LAST NITE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE WNW FLOW WILL ALLOW ANOMALIES TO FURTHER FALL. STRONG NW FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE BLOW-OUT TIDES
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ634-650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KLWX 111458
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
958 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE
MAY IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LETTING WIND CHILL ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 10 AM...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY
STILL BE SOME -10F READINGS ON THE HIGHEST RIDGELINES. WILL MAKE A
MENTION OF THIS IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WHICH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 6 PM FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT UPSLOPE ACCUMULATIONS.

SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY AS THE FIRST
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ALOFT...BROAD UPPER LVL TROUGH
LIFTS NORTH AS ZONAL FLOW BUILDS IN BRIEFLY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND MOISTURE CONNECTION TO LAKE ERIE ARE
ALLOWING SOME FLURRIES TO DRIFT SE FROM PA INTO N-CNTRL MD.
CURRENTLY RADAR RETURNS ARE LIGHT BUT WILL MONITOR FOR ANY
POTENTIAL ENHANCEMENTS AND MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. CURRENT
TRAJECTORIES WOULD KEEP MOST OF THE FLURRIES NORTH OF DC. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE BEST POTENTIAL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
MOISTURE THINS...ALTHOUGH SEVERAL HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST CONTINUED
POTENTIAL IN NE MD THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

GUSTY NW FLOW UP TO 30 MPH TODAY WITH THE AREA REMAINING
SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND APPROACHING HIGH. HIGH
TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL...AND COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS...WIND
CHILLS WILL HOVER IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. TONIGHTS LOWS
WILL DROP INTO SINGLE DIGITS ABV ZERO AND THE TEENS...BUT WITH
LIGHTER WINDS NOT ANTICIPATING ANOTHER WIND CHILL ADVISORY BEING
NEEDED. VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMP FORECAST NEEDED ATTM.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD FRIDAY...RETURN FLOW WILL USHER IN
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND INCREASED MOISTURE. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
REACH NEAR FREEZING MOST PLACES. PCPN CHCS INCREASE FOR WESTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS WITH TWO LOW PRESSURE AREAS TO BE NOTED...LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND PRE-FRONTAL SFC
TROUGH SPLITTING THE WESTERN CWA. A LOT OF DRIER AIR NEEDS TO BE
OVERCOME...WHICH WILL MINIMIZE PCPN POTENTIAL...AT LAST THRU 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LVL TROUGH SWINGS SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT...SENDING THROUGH A
STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT. DEFINITE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE
COLD FROPA...AND SCT SNOW SHOWERS NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH
STRONG FORCING ALOFT. RIGHT NOW HAVE LESS THAN ONE INCH SNOW
CENTRAL MD (THOUGH WOULD BE A QUICK BURST)...WITH 1-3 INCHES OF
UPSLOPE SNOW...THE LATTER POTENTIALLY REQUIRING ANOTHER WINTER WX
ADVISORY.

THE BIGGER STORY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE ARCTIC BLAST IN THE WAKE AS
A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DIPS SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN US.
850MB TEMPS PLUMMET FROM -10 DEGREES CELSIUS 00Z SAT TO AROUND -20
DEGREES BY 12Z SAT. RESULTING TEMPS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS OUT WEST...TO THE 20S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. LOWS SAT NIGHT
WILL SEE BELOW ZERO TO RIGHT ABV ZERO WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...TO
SINGLE DIGITS ABV ZERO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. IN ADDITION...
STRONG NW WINDS EXPECTED WITH THE CAA...GUSTS AT LEAST 20- 30 KTS
AND 30-40 KTS IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS (WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED). CONCERNING WIND CHILLS...FRI NIGHT MOST LIKELY WILL NEED
AN ADVISORY FOR ALLEGHENY FRONT AND HIGHER BLUE RIDGE ZONES. THE
ADVISORY COULD CARRY THRU SAT. FOR SAT NIGHT...WIND CHILL WARNINGS
MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA...WITH WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES LIKELY FOR THE REMAINING CWA AS THE ENTIRE AREA DROPS
BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD SFC HIPRES WL BE OVER THE CWFA SUN. THE ONLY SAVING GRACE MAY
BE THE RELATIVE LACK OF WIND...THX TO SUBSIDENCE. ITLL STILL BE A
COLD DAY NONETHELESS...WITH A FRIGID START AND MAXT THEN STRUGGLING
TO CLIMB THRU THE 20S. THE PRESENCE OF THIS COLD AMS ATOP US WL PLAY
A ROLE IN THE MON-TUE FCST.

MASSIVE TEMP CHGS RARELY OCCUR GRACEFULLY. THATS LOOKING TO BE THE
CASE MON INTO TUE. WAA WL ENSUE SUN NGT-MON AS THE HIGH DRIFTS
OFFSHORE AND SRN STREAM LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACRS THE SRN PLAINS...
EVENTUALLY ARRIVING IN THE CAROLINAS MON NGT. GDNC SUGGESTING VERY
DIFFERENT STRENGTH SOLNS UP TO THIS POINT...AND LOPRES TRACK FCSTS
VARY AS WELL BYD THIS POINT. REGARDLESS OF THESE SPECIFICS...THE
LINGERING AMS WL BE COLD ENUF FOR PTYPE TO BE SNOW AT ONSET. AFTER
THAT...THERE ARE PLENTY OF QUESTIONS LEFT TO ANSWER. GDNC FROM THE
CURRENT CYCLE SUGGESTS THAT THE AMS OVER THE CWFA WL REMAIN COLD
ENUF TO HOLD OFF ANY MIXING/RAIN TIL TUE. THE NEARER THE TRACK HOLDS
TO THE CWFA...THE GREATER THE OPPORTUNITY FOR MIXED PTYPE ISSUES.
THERES PLENTY OF ROOM FOR THIS FCST TO CHG...MOST LKLY SVRL TIMES.

BY TUE NGT OR WED...THE RESULTANT /AND DEEPENING/ CSTL LOW WL BE
DEPARTING THE MID ATLC...W/ ZONAL FLOW AND SEASONABLE TEMPS IN ITS
WAKE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS LASTING THRU SAT NIGHT.
FLURRIES COULD AFFECT MAINLY MRB/BWI/MTN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME VSBY REDUCTIONS IN S PA...BUT NOT SURE IF
THIS INTENSITY REACHES THE TERMINALS. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS MAY BRING
A BRIEF REDUCTION IN CIGS AND VIS AT MAINLY KMRB/KIAD/KBWI/KMTN
FRI NIGHT. GUSTY NW WINDS TODAY...GUSTING BTWN 20-30 KTS. LIGHT
SW WINDS ON FRI...INCRSG QUICKLY FRI NIGHT AND GUSTING BTW 25-35
KTS THRU SAT NIGHT.

VFR SUN UNDER HIPRES. FLGT CONDS TO DETERIORATE BY MON AS LOPRES
APPROACHES THE AREA. PTYPE ISSUES ABOUND...BUT MOST LKLY ITLL BE
SNOW AT ONSET.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS TODAY WITH NW WINDS GUSTING
BETWEEN 20-30 KTS. AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN TONIGHT...WINDS
DIMINISH...DROPPING BELOW SCA CRITERIA ON ALL WATERS BY FRI
MORNING. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FRI WITH SCA CRITERIA RETURNING IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT FRI NIGHT. GALES LIKELY ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
WATERS BY 12Z SAT MORNING...AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC BY MIDDAY
SAT...LASTING THRU AT LEAST SAT EVENING AND POSSIBLY TILL SUN
MORNING.

WINDS WL DECREASE SUN AS HIPRES BLDS. MAY STILL HV SOME SCA CONDS IN
THE MRNG...BUT THESE WL DIMINISH THRU THE DAY. SLY FLOW BY MON AS
LOPRES APPROACHES. LKLY WL HV SNOW APPROACHING THE WATERS. PTYPE
AFTER THAT UNCERTAIN.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ501.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ503.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ501-
     503-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS
NEAR TERM...SEARS/ADS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...SEARS/ADS/HTS
MARINE...SEARS/ADS/HTS




000
FXUS61 KPHI 111455
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
955 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND THEN
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY, ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY. THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
954 AM: MAY START HAMMERING I-80 AREA IN AN 11AM UPDATE...PENDING
A LITTLE MORE MODEL GUIDANCE. HRRR TRYING TO LATCH ONTO SNOW
SHOWERS IN MOST RECENT CYCLE...STILL WAY BEHIND REALITY.


930 AM ESTF: WE THINK 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN NARROW BANDS. ALREADY
UNCONFIRMED REPORT 1.5". HANDLING WITH SPS`S AND VIGOROUSLY
UPDATED LEGACY AND POINT CLICK PRODUCTS. SNOW MAP UPDATING NOW BUT
STILL GENERAL  LESS THAN 1".


730 AM ESTF: UPDATED FOR THE SNOW BAND IN SE PA INTO SW NJ. ITS
PUTTING DOWN A DUSTING THAT IS CAUSING SOME TRAVEL DIFFICULTY. A
NOWCAST IS POSTED AS WELL UPDATED SNOWMAP AND FORECASTS FOR THIS
MORNING. NO MODEL HAS THIS..N PART ..IN PART LES BAND TRAILING
INTO OUR AREA. IF WE SEE VSBY 1 MI OR LESS WE WILL UPGRADE TO AN
SPS. OUR RADAR CONTINUES IN VCP31 TO BETTER SEE THE FINER DETAILS,
PLUS ITS LOW TOP AND VERY LOW WATER CONTENT.

FROM THE MID SHIFT BELOW...

FOR A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER DAY, STILL HAVE THREE MAIN STORIES TO
TALK ABOUT FOR THE TODAY PERIOD.

SNOW...AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP ACROSS THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN NJ THROUGH
AT LEAST MID DAY. IN ADDITION, THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME. THESE FACTORS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, OR MAYBE EVEN A FAST
MOVING SNOW SQUALL, ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION. WITH
PERSISTENT DRY AIR ADVECTION, MOISTURE IS LIMITED. SO EVEN THOUGH
SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS COULD BE ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO THE VERY COLD AIR
IN PLACE, STILL EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO REMAIN BELOW ONE INCH.

WINDS...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z BEFORE IT STARTS TO DECREASE AS THE SURFACE LOW
LIFTS FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THUS, EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS POINT THOUGH, WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
(SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 31 MPH FOR AT LEAST ONE HOUR OR GUSTS
OF 46 MPH) ARE NOT ANTICIPATED, SINCE THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE THE MIXING LAYER GETS VERY DEEP.
HAVING SAID THAT THOUGH, THE GFS DOES SHOW THAT THE SUSTAINED
CRITERIA COULD BE REACHED FOR LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO THE DE BAY,
SINCE THE DIRECTION IS A FAVORED DIRECTION FOR THE FUNNELING EFFECT
OVER THE BAY. IN ADDITION, VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW THAT 40 KT WINDS ARE
ABOUT 4000 TO 5000 FT MSL. IF THE MIXING LAYER GETS DEEP ENOUGH,
SOME OF THAT COULD MIX DOWN FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ. FOR NOW THOUGH, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT IT WILL BE
REACHED SO WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

COLD...TODAY BEGINS THE COLD STRETCH WHICH WE ARE EXPECTING TO
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE TODAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE WARMEST
OF THE NEXT 4 DAYS, THE REGION SHOULD STAY BELOW FREEZING, AND
PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS AND NW NJ MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE TEENS.
THIS WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN THE WINDY
CONDITIONS, WIND CHILL VALUES ACROSS THE REGION WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN
THE TEENS AT BEST.

TONIGHT...HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN, AND CONSEQUENTLY WINDS
DIMINISH, AND CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE. AS A RESULT, SHOULD SEE
CONSIDERABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS AND WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
RIGHT NOW SIMILAR TO THE PRIOR FORECAST THROUGH ANTICIPATE
BEEFING UP POPS LATE FRI DAY AFTERNOON IN THE POCONOS.

NO CHANGES ATTM FOR FRI NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUR UPDATED BRIEFING PACKAGE AT MIDDAY WILL INCLUDE MORE INFORMATION
ON THE UPCOMING DANGEROUS COLD, INCLUDING A POSSIBLE WIND CHILL
WATCH FOR SAT NIGHT WHICH IS ALREADY A HIGH CONFIDENCE LIKELIHOOD.

THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE BOTH THE PROSPECTS FOR THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON CENTERED ON SUNDAY MORNING AND A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP.
THESE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER AN INCH.

BEHIND THE FRONT, IT WILL BE A VERY COLD AND WINDY PERIOD WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE NW FLOW OFF OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE FAVORED REGIONS TO
SEE SNOW SHOWERS ARE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS OF EASTERN PA AND
NW NJ. BUFKIT ANALYSIS YIELDS THE POTENTIAL FOR 30-40 MPH GUSTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE GUST POTENTIAL. THE STRONG CAA WILL NOT ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE MUCH DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. MODELING HAS BEEN HOLDING STEADY ON THE
IDEA THAT 850 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE BELOW -25C. WILL
NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE DEGREE OF THE COLD AIR
BEING MODELED. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS, THOUGH NOT AS STRONG
AS ON SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.
THE COLD AND WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS FROM -10 TO -30 BELOW
ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. PLEASE TO MAKE SURE TO
PREPARE FOR THE COLD WEATHER THAT IS COMING. PREPARATIONS INCLUDE
CHECKING PIPES AND MAKING SURE YOUR VEHICLE IS IN GOOD WORKING
CONDITION. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY NEAR OR
BELOW ZERO AS WELL. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION ON RECORD
POTENTIAL.

PRESIDENTS DAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS
CURRENTLY MODELED TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. THE 00Z 2/11 OPERATIONAL
MODELS HAVE NARROWED THE GOAL POSTS OF POSSIBLE TRACKS FROM
EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THIS ALSO MATCHES OR IS JUST EAST OF THE 12Z
2/10 ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACK. THIS TRACK GOES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
AL/GA NORTHEAST TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINE THEN DUE NORTH UP THE
EAST COAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TWO MAIN FEATURES ARE
PRESENT TO TRACK WITH REGARDS TO MODELS OR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES
CHANGING THE FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IN FUTURE RUNS. THIS
FIRST IS A LEADING SHORTWAVE WHICH MOVES INTO THE THE OHIO VALLEY
ON MONDAY AND THE SECOND IS THE DEGREE OF MID- LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
THAT OCCUR AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WOULD
TEND TO PUSH THE OVERALL TROUGH WITH THIS STORM FURTHER EAST.
WHILE A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER MID- LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES LEADING TO A FURTHER WEST TRACK OF THE LOW. RIGHT NOW THE
FAVORED TRACK WOULD RESULT IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. IT WILL LIKELY BE WINDY AS WELL WITH THE
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NEAR THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY: THE REGION SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AS
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION.
SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AS 2/11 00Z ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER SYSTEM
INTO THE REGION BY THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. BRIEF IFR CONDS IN SNOW SHOWERS
VCNTY KPHL NORTH THROUGH KTTN, KABE, AND KRDG. TIMING UNCERTAIN
AND HANDLING AS NEAR TERM FCST. THESE MESOSCALE BANDS DONT APPEAR
TO BE WELL HANDLED BY OUR HRRR HRRRX PRODUCTS NOR RUC/RAP. NEW
12Z/11 NAM HAS A NEW BAND DEVELOPING NEAR AND N OF I-80 THIS AFTN.
LATEST HRRR TRYING TO GRASP THE SITN. CERTAINLY VERY LARGE LOW LVL
LAPSE RATES AS COLD POOL ALOFT TEMPORARILY LIFTS ENE.

BASICALLY THERE APPEARS TO BE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW - MOISTURE PLUME
CONNECTION TO THE STILL WIDE OPEN LERIE, THEN SEWD INTO SWRN PA
AND FROM THERE EWD TO NEAR PHL. THAT MAY REFOCUS NEAR I-80 OR I-78
THIS AFTN.

WEST WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO 30 KT BY 16Z. ISOLATED 35 KT POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 4000 FT DURING THE EVENING BECOMING
CLEAR. GUSTY WNW WINDS 20-30 KT SLOWLY DIMINISHING DURING THE
NIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 25 KNOTS.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY THEN BECOMING MVFR AND
IFR BY EVENING WITH RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
GALES IN PROGRESS AND GLW CONTINUES AS POSTED. AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED
FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE OVER NIGHT HOURS ONCE THE GALES SUBSIDE.

LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS OCCURRING AND CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED ON
THE BAY AS WELL AS THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS.

OUTLOOK...

OUR AFTERNOON MARINE PRODUCTS WILL HEADLINE A NEW HIGH CONFIDENCE
GALE WATCH FOR THE PERIOD ROUGHLY 4 AM SATURDAY THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY.

SO WHILE, SEAS AND WINDS WILL START OUT FAIRLY LIGHT ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, A QUICK RAMP UP IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND REACH GALE FORCE BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE GALE FORCE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE FOR GALES ON SATURDAY IS
VERY HIGH. SEAS WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET FOR A PERIOD AS
WELL ON SATURDAY. SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE ON
SUNDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY START INCREASING AGAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN SEVERAL
DEGREES OF ZERO (WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY EXCEPT COLDER KMPO (NEAR -12F). THIS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/ECMWF 2M TEMPS CYCLICALLY SINCE AT LEAST THE
00Z/7 OPERATIONAL CYCLES. THEREFORE, BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD
EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY THE 14TH WOULD BE KABE,
KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

SNOW COVER MAY HELP A BIT I-95 NORTHWESTWARD...AND WE`LL SEE
WHERE WE ARE WITH SNOW COVER BY THURSDAY EVENING. NEW DUSTINGS
APPEAR ON THE WAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

PLEASE NOTE... GUIDANCE IN PART IS BEING CLIMO BIASED HIGHER THAN
WHAT THE ONCOMING GFS/ECMWF LITERAL AIRMASS AND 2M TEMPS ARE INDICATING
FOR SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING IN THE URBAN AREAS SHOULD
BE ABOUT 25 COLDER THAN NORMAL. THAT MEANS GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR PHL
OF 5 AND 6 DEGREES APPEAR TOO WARM...ESPECIALLY WITH A NORMAL
PHILADELPHIA LOW ON SUNDAY OF 28.

HAVE SEEN THE 12Z/11 2M TEMPS FOR PHL...1 ABOVE RANGING DOWN TO
-11 AT KMPO AND AM LIKING THOSE VALUES AS WITHIN 2F OF THE
UPCOMING REALITY.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE
14TH, IF THEN.  THOSE HAVE BEEN ADDED RECENTLY BELOW.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH ----RER LOW MAX
---------------------- --------------------

ABE             8                         -1 IN 1979     14-1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979     13-1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979     14-1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979     13-1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

SO, THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY 30 BELOW IN
THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...DRAG 954
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES 954
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES
CLIMATE...954



000
FXUS61 KPHI 111455
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
955 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND THEN
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY, ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY. THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
954 AM: MAY START HAMMERING I-80 AREA IN AN 11AM UPDATE...PENDING
A LITTLE MORE MODEL GUIDANCE. HRRR TRYING TO LATCH ONTO SNOW
SHOWERS IN MOST RECENT CYCLE...STILL WAY BEHIND REALITY.


930 AM ESTF: WE THINK 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN NARROW BANDS. ALREADY
UNCONFIRMED REPORT 1.5". HANDLING WITH SPS`S AND VIGOROUSLY
UPDATED LEGACY AND POINT CLICK PRODUCTS. SNOW MAP UPDATING NOW BUT
STILL GENERAL  LESS THAN 1".


730 AM ESTF: UPDATED FOR THE SNOW BAND IN SE PA INTO SW NJ. ITS
PUTTING DOWN A DUSTING THAT IS CAUSING SOME TRAVEL DIFFICULTY. A
NOWCAST IS POSTED AS WELL UPDATED SNOWMAP AND FORECASTS FOR THIS
MORNING. NO MODEL HAS THIS..N PART ..IN PART LES BAND TRAILING
INTO OUR AREA. IF WE SEE VSBY 1 MI OR LESS WE WILL UPGRADE TO AN
SPS. OUR RADAR CONTINUES IN VCP31 TO BETTER SEE THE FINER DETAILS,
PLUS ITS LOW TOP AND VERY LOW WATER CONTENT.

FROM THE MID SHIFT BELOW...

FOR A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER DAY, STILL HAVE THREE MAIN STORIES TO
TALK ABOUT FOR THE TODAY PERIOD.

SNOW...AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP ACROSS THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN NJ THROUGH
AT LEAST MID DAY. IN ADDITION, THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME. THESE FACTORS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, OR MAYBE EVEN A FAST
MOVING SNOW SQUALL, ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION. WITH
PERSISTENT DRY AIR ADVECTION, MOISTURE IS LIMITED. SO EVEN THOUGH
SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS COULD BE ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO THE VERY COLD AIR
IN PLACE, STILL EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO REMAIN BELOW ONE INCH.

WINDS...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z BEFORE IT STARTS TO DECREASE AS THE SURFACE LOW
LIFTS FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THUS, EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS POINT THOUGH, WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
(SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 31 MPH FOR AT LEAST ONE HOUR OR GUSTS
OF 46 MPH) ARE NOT ANTICIPATED, SINCE THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE THE MIXING LAYER GETS VERY DEEP.
HAVING SAID THAT THOUGH, THE GFS DOES SHOW THAT THE SUSTAINED
CRITERIA COULD BE REACHED FOR LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO THE DE BAY,
SINCE THE DIRECTION IS A FAVORED DIRECTION FOR THE FUNNELING EFFECT
OVER THE BAY. IN ADDITION, VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW THAT 40 KT WINDS ARE
ABOUT 4000 TO 5000 FT MSL. IF THE MIXING LAYER GETS DEEP ENOUGH,
SOME OF THAT COULD MIX DOWN FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ. FOR NOW THOUGH, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT IT WILL BE
REACHED SO WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

COLD...TODAY BEGINS THE COLD STRETCH WHICH WE ARE EXPECTING TO
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE TODAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE WARMEST
OF THE NEXT 4 DAYS, THE REGION SHOULD STAY BELOW FREEZING, AND
PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS AND NW NJ MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE TEENS.
THIS WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN THE WINDY
CONDITIONS, WIND CHILL VALUES ACROSS THE REGION WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN
THE TEENS AT BEST.

TONIGHT...HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN, AND CONSEQUENTLY WINDS
DIMINISH, AND CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE. AS A RESULT, SHOULD SEE
CONSIDERABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS AND WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
RIGHT NOW SIMILAR TO THE PRIOR FORECAST THROUGH ANTICIPATE
BEEFING UP POPS LATE FRI DAY AFTERNOON IN THE POCONOS.

NO CHANGES ATTM FOR FRI NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUR UPDATED BRIEFING PACKAGE AT MIDDAY WILL INCLUDE MORE INFORMATION
ON THE UPCOMING DANGEROUS COLD, INCLUDING A POSSIBLE WIND CHILL
WATCH FOR SAT NIGHT WHICH IS ALREADY A HIGH CONFIDENCE LIKELIHOOD.

THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE BOTH THE PROSPECTS FOR THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON CENTERED ON SUNDAY MORNING AND A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP.
THESE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER AN INCH.

BEHIND THE FRONT, IT WILL BE A VERY COLD AND WINDY PERIOD WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE NW FLOW OFF OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE FAVORED REGIONS TO
SEE SNOW SHOWERS ARE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS OF EASTERN PA AND
NW NJ. BUFKIT ANALYSIS YIELDS THE POTENTIAL FOR 30-40 MPH GUSTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE GUST POTENTIAL. THE STRONG CAA WILL NOT ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE MUCH DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. MODELING HAS BEEN HOLDING STEADY ON THE
IDEA THAT 850 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE BELOW -25C. WILL
NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE DEGREE OF THE COLD AIR
BEING MODELED. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS, THOUGH NOT AS STRONG
AS ON SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.
THE COLD AND WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS FROM -10 TO -30 BELOW
ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. PLEASE TO MAKE SURE TO
PREPARE FOR THE COLD WEATHER THAT IS COMING. PREPARATIONS INCLUDE
CHECKING PIPES AND MAKING SURE YOUR VEHICLE IS IN GOOD WORKING
CONDITION. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY NEAR OR
BELOW ZERO AS WELL. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION ON RECORD
POTENTIAL.

PRESIDENTS DAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS
CURRENTLY MODELED TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. THE 00Z 2/11 OPERATIONAL
MODELS HAVE NARROWED THE GOAL POSTS OF POSSIBLE TRACKS FROM
EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THIS ALSO MATCHES OR IS JUST EAST OF THE 12Z
2/10 ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACK. THIS TRACK GOES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
AL/GA NORTHEAST TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINE THEN DUE NORTH UP THE
EAST COAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TWO MAIN FEATURES ARE
PRESENT TO TRACK WITH REGARDS TO MODELS OR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES
CHANGING THE FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IN FUTURE RUNS. THIS
FIRST IS A LEADING SHORTWAVE WHICH MOVES INTO THE THE OHIO VALLEY
ON MONDAY AND THE SECOND IS THE DEGREE OF MID- LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
THAT OCCUR AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WOULD
TEND TO PUSH THE OVERALL TROUGH WITH THIS STORM FURTHER EAST.
WHILE A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER MID- LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES LEADING TO A FURTHER WEST TRACK OF THE LOW. RIGHT NOW THE
FAVORED TRACK WOULD RESULT IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. IT WILL LIKELY BE WINDY AS WELL WITH THE
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NEAR THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY: THE REGION SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AS
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION.
SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AS 2/11 00Z ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER SYSTEM
INTO THE REGION BY THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. BRIEF IFR CONDS IN SNOW SHOWERS
VCNTY KPHL NORTH THROUGH KTTN, KABE, AND KRDG. TIMING UNCERTAIN
AND HANDLING AS NEAR TERM FCST. THESE MESOSCALE BANDS DONT APPEAR
TO BE WELL HANDLED BY OUR HRRR HRRRX PRODUCTS NOR RUC/RAP. NEW
12Z/11 NAM HAS A NEW BAND DEVELOPING NEAR AND N OF I-80 THIS AFTN.
LATEST HRRR TRYING TO GRASP THE SITN. CERTAINLY VERY LARGE LOW LVL
LAPSE RATES AS COLD POOL ALOFT TEMPORARILY LIFTS ENE.

BASICALLY THERE APPEARS TO BE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW - MOISTURE PLUME
CONNECTION TO THE STILL WIDE OPEN LERIE, THEN SEWD INTO SWRN PA
AND FROM THERE EWD TO NEAR PHL. THAT MAY REFOCUS NEAR I-80 OR I-78
THIS AFTN.

WEST WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO 30 KT BY 16Z. ISOLATED 35 KT POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 4000 FT DURING THE EVENING BECOMING
CLEAR. GUSTY WNW WINDS 20-30 KT SLOWLY DIMINISHING DURING THE
NIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 25 KNOTS.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY THEN BECOMING MVFR AND
IFR BY EVENING WITH RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
GALES IN PROGRESS AND GLW CONTINUES AS POSTED. AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED
FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE OVER NIGHT HOURS ONCE THE GALES SUBSIDE.

LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS OCCURRING AND CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED ON
THE BAY AS WELL AS THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS.

OUTLOOK...

OUR AFTERNOON MARINE PRODUCTS WILL HEADLINE A NEW HIGH CONFIDENCE
GALE WATCH FOR THE PERIOD ROUGHLY 4 AM SATURDAY THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY.

SO WHILE, SEAS AND WINDS WILL START OUT FAIRLY LIGHT ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, A QUICK RAMP UP IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND REACH GALE FORCE BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE GALE FORCE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE FOR GALES ON SATURDAY IS
VERY HIGH. SEAS WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET FOR A PERIOD AS
WELL ON SATURDAY. SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE ON
SUNDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY START INCREASING AGAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN SEVERAL
DEGREES OF ZERO (WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY EXCEPT COLDER KMPO (NEAR -12F). THIS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/ECMWF 2M TEMPS CYCLICALLY SINCE AT LEAST THE
00Z/7 OPERATIONAL CYCLES. THEREFORE, BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD
EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY THE 14TH WOULD BE KABE,
KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

SNOW COVER MAY HELP A BIT I-95 NORTHWESTWARD...AND WE`LL SEE
WHERE WE ARE WITH SNOW COVER BY THURSDAY EVENING. NEW DUSTINGS
APPEAR ON THE WAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

PLEASE NOTE... GUIDANCE IN PART IS BEING CLIMO BIASED HIGHER THAN
WHAT THE ONCOMING GFS/ECMWF LITERAL AIRMASS AND 2M TEMPS ARE INDICATING
FOR SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING IN THE URBAN AREAS SHOULD
BE ABOUT 25 COLDER THAN NORMAL. THAT MEANS GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR PHL
OF 5 AND 6 DEGREES APPEAR TOO WARM...ESPECIALLY WITH A NORMAL
PHILADELPHIA LOW ON SUNDAY OF 28.

HAVE SEEN THE 12Z/11 2M TEMPS FOR PHL...1 ABOVE RANGING DOWN TO
-11 AT KMPO AND AM LIKING THOSE VALUES AS WITHIN 2F OF THE
UPCOMING REALITY.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE
14TH, IF THEN.  THOSE HAVE BEEN ADDED RECENTLY BELOW.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH ----RER LOW MAX
---------------------- --------------------

ABE             8                         -1 IN 1979     14-1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979     13-1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979     14-1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979     13-1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

SO, THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY 30 BELOW IN
THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...DRAG 954
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES 954
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES
CLIMATE...954




000
FXUS61 KPHI 111455
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
955 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND THEN
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY, ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY. THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
954 AM: MAY START HAMMERING I-80 AREA IN AN 11AM UPDATE...PENDING
A LITTLE MORE MODEL GUIDANCE. HRRR TRYING TO LATCH ONTO SNOW
SHOWERS IN MOST RECENT CYCLE...STILL WAY BEHIND REALITY.


930 AM ESTF: WE THINK 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN NARROW BANDS. ALREADY
UNCONFIRMED REPORT 1.5". HANDLING WITH SPS`S AND VIGOROUSLY
UPDATED LEGACY AND POINT CLICK PRODUCTS. SNOW MAP UPDATING NOW BUT
STILL GENERAL  LESS THAN 1".


730 AM ESTF: UPDATED FOR THE SNOW BAND IN SE PA INTO SW NJ. ITS
PUTTING DOWN A DUSTING THAT IS CAUSING SOME TRAVEL DIFFICULTY. A
NOWCAST IS POSTED AS WELL UPDATED SNOWMAP AND FORECASTS FOR THIS
MORNING. NO MODEL HAS THIS..N PART ..IN PART LES BAND TRAILING
INTO OUR AREA. IF WE SEE VSBY 1 MI OR LESS WE WILL UPGRADE TO AN
SPS. OUR RADAR CONTINUES IN VCP31 TO BETTER SEE THE FINER DETAILS,
PLUS ITS LOW TOP AND VERY LOW WATER CONTENT.

FROM THE MID SHIFT BELOW...

FOR A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER DAY, STILL HAVE THREE MAIN STORIES TO
TALK ABOUT FOR THE TODAY PERIOD.

SNOW...AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP ACROSS THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN NJ THROUGH
AT LEAST MID DAY. IN ADDITION, THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME. THESE FACTORS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, OR MAYBE EVEN A FAST
MOVING SNOW SQUALL, ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION. WITH
PERSISTENT DRY AIR ADVECTION, MOISTURE IS LIMITED. SO EVEN THOUGH
SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS COULD BE ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO THE VERY COLD AIR
IN PLACE, STILL EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO REMAIN BELOW ONE INCH.

WINDS...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z BEFORE IT STARTS TO DECREASE AS THE SURFACE LOW
LIFTS FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THUS, EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS POINT THOUGH, WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
(SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 31 MPH FOR AT LEAST ONE HOUR OR GUSTS
OF 46 MPH) ARE NOT ANTICIPATED, SINCE THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE THE MIXING LAYER GETS VERY DEEP.
HAVING SAID THAT THOUGH, THE GFS DOES SHOW THAT THE SUSTAINED
CRITERIA COULD BE REACHED FOR LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO THE DE BAY,
SINCE THE DIRECTION IS A FAVORED DIRECTION FOR THE FUNNELING EFFECT
OVER THE BAY. IN ADDITION, VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW THAT 40 KT WINDS ARE
ABOUT 4000 TO 5000 FT MSL. IF THE MIXING LAYER GETS DEEP ENOUGH,
SOME OF THAT COULD MIX DOWN FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ. FOR NOW THOUGH, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT IT WILL BE
REACHED SO WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

COLD...TODAY BEGINS THE COLD STRETCH WHICH WE ARE EXPECTING TO
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE TODAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE WARMEST
OF THE NEXT 4 DAYS, THE REGION SHOULD STAY BELOW FREEZING, AND
PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS AND NW NJ MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE TEENS.
THIS WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN THE WINDY
CONDITIONS, WIND CHILL VALUES ACROSS THE REGION WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN
THE TEENS AT BEST.

TONIGHT...HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN, AND CONSEQUENTLY WINDS
DIMINISH, AND CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE. AS A RESULT, SHOULD SEE
CONSIDERABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS AND WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
RIGHT NOW SIMILAR TO THE PRIOR FORECAST THROUGH ANTICIPATE
BEEFING UP POPS LATE FRI DAY AFTERNOON IN THE POCONOS.

NO CHANGES ATTM FOR FRI NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUR UPDATED BRIEFING PACKAGE AT MIDDAY WILL INCLUDE MORE INFORMATION
ON THE UPCOMING DANGEROUS COLD, INCLUDING A POSSIBLE WIND CHILL
WATCH FOR SAT NIGHT WHICH IS ALREADY A HIGH CONFIDENCE LIKELIHOOD.

THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE BOTH THE PROSPECTS FOR THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON CENTERED ON SUNDAY MORNING AND A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP.
THESE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER AN INCH.

BEHIND THE FRONT, IT WILL BE A VERY COLD AND WINDY PERIOD WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE NW FLOW OFF OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE FAVORED REGIONS TO
SEE SNOW SHOWERS ARE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS OF EASTERN PA AND
NW NJ. BUFKIT ANALYSIS YIELDS THE POTENTIAL FOR 30-40 MPH GUSTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE GUST POTENTIAL. THE STRONG CAA WILL NOT ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE MUCH DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. MODELING HAS BEEN HOLDING STEADY ON THE
IDEA THAT 850 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE BELOW -25C. WILL
NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE DEGREE OF THE COLD AIR
BEING MODELED. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS, THOUGH NOT AS STRONG
AS ON SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.
THE COLD AND WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS FROM -10 TO -30 BELOW
ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. PLEASE TO MAKE SURE TO
PREPARE FOR THE COLD WEATHER THAT IS COMING. PREPARATIONS INCLUDE
CHECKING PIPES AND MAKING SURE YOUR VEHICLE IS IN GOOD WORKING
CONDITION. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY NEAR OR
BELOW ZERO AS WELL. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION ON RECORD
POTENTIAL.

PRESIDENTS DAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS
CURRENTLY MODELED TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. THE 00Z 2/11 OPERATIONAL
MODELS HAVE NARROWED THE GOAL POSTS OF POSSIBLE TRACKS FROM
EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THIS ALSO MATCHES OR IS JUST EAST OF THE 12Z
2/10 ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACK. THIS TRACK GOES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
AL/GA NORTHEAST TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINE THEN DUE NORTH UP THE
EAST COAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TWO MAIN FEATURES ARE
PRESENT TO TRACK WITH REGARDS TO MODELS OR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES
CHANGING THE FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IN FUTURE RUNS. THIS
FIRST IS A LEADING SHORTWAVE WHICH MOVES INTO THE THE OHIO VALLEY
ON MONDAY AND THE SECOND IS THE DEGREE OF MID- LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
THAT OCCUR AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WOULD
TEND TO PUSH THE OVERALL TROUGH WITH THIS STORM FURTHER EAST.
WHILE A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER MID- LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES LEADING TO A FURTHER WEST TRACK OF THE LOW. RIGHT NOW THE
FAVORED TRACK WOULD RESULT IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. IT WILL LIKELY BE WINDY AS WELL WITH THE
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NEAR THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY: THE REGION SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AS
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION.
SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AS 2/11 00Z ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER SYSTEM
INTO THE REGION BY THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. BRIEF IFR CONDS IN SNOW SHOWERS
VCNTY KPHL NORTH THROUGH KTTN, KABE, AND KRDG. TIMING UNCERTAIN
AND HANDLING AS NEAR TERM FCST. THESE MESOSCALE BANDS DONT APPEAR
TO BE WELL HANDLED BY OUR HRRR HRRRX PRODUCTS NOR RUC/RAP. NEW
12Z/11 NAM HAS A NEW BAND DEVELOPING NEAR AND N OF I-80 THIS AFTN.
LATEST HRRR TRYING TO GRASP THE SITN. CERTAINLY VERY LARGE LOW LVL
LAPSE RATES AS COLD POOL ALOFT TEMPORARILY LIFTS ENE.

BASICALLY THERE APPEARS TO BE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW - MOISTURE PLUME
CONNECTION TO THE STILL WIDE OPEN LERIE, THEN SEWD INTO SWRN PA
AND FROM THERE EWD TO NEAR PHL. THAT MAY REFOCUS NEAR I-80 OR I-78
THIS AFTN.

WEST WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO 30 KT BY 16Z. ISOLATED 35 KT POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 4000 FT DURING THE EVENING BECOMING
CLEAR. GUSTY WNW WINDS 20-30 KT SLOWLY DIMINISHING DURING THE
NIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 25 KNOTS.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY THEN BECOMING MVFR AND
IFR BY EVENING WITH RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
GALES IN PROGRESS AND GLW CONTINUES AS POSTED. AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED
FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE OVER NIGHT HOURS ONCE THE GALES SUBSIDE.

LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS OCCURRING AND CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED ON
THE BAY AS WELL AS THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS.

OUTLOOK...

OUR AFTERNOON MARINE PRODUCTS WILL HEADLINE A NEW HIGH CONFIDENCE
GALE WATCH FOR THE PERIOD ROUGHLY 4 AM SATURDAY THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY.

SO WHILE, SEAS AND WINDS WILL START OUT FAIRLY LIGHT ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, A QUICK RAMP UP IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND REACH GALE FORCE BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE GALE FORCE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE FOR GALES ON SATURDAY IS
VERY HIGH. SEAS WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET FOR A PERIOD AS
WELL ON SATURDAY. SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE ON
SUNDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY START INCREASING AGAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN SEVERAL
DEGREES OF ZERO (WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY EXCEPT COLDER KMPO (NEAR -12F). THIS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/ECMWF 2M TEMPS CYCLICALLY SINCE AT LEAST THE
00Z/7 OPERATIONAL CYCLES. THEREFORE, BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD
EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY THE 14TH WOULD BE KABE,
KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

SNOW COVER MAY HELP A BIT I-95 NORTHWESTWARD...AND WE`LL SEE
WHERE WE ARE WITH SNOW COVER BY THURSDAY EVENING. NEW DUSTINGS
APPEAR ON THE WAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

PLEASE NOTE... GUIDANCE IN PART IS BEING CLIMO BIASED HIGHER THAN
WHAT THE ONCOMING GFS/ECMWF LITERAL AIRMASS AND 2M TEMPS ARE INDICATING
FOR SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING IN THE URBAN AREAS SHOULD
BE ABOUT 25 COLDER THAN NORMAL. THAT MEANS GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR PHL
OF 5 AND 6 DEGREES APPEAR TOO WARM...ESPECIALLY WITH A NORMAL
PHILADELPHIA LOW ON SUNDAY OF 28.

HAVE SEEN THE 12Z/11 2M TEMPS FOR PHL...1 ABOVE RANGING DOWN TO
-11 AT KMPO AND AM LIKING THOSE VALUES AS WITHIN 2F OF THE
UPCOMING REALITY.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE
14TH, IF THEN.  THOSE HAVE BEEN ADDED RECENTLY BELOW.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH ----RER LOW MAX
---------------------- --------------------

ABE             8                         -1 IN 1979     14-1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979     13-1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979     14-1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979     13-1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

SO, THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY 30 BELOW IN
THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...DRAG 954
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES 954
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES
CLIMATE...954




000
FXUS61 KPHI 111430
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
930 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND THEN
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY, ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY. THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM ESTF: WE THINK 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN NARROW BANDS. ALREADY
UNCONFIRMED REPORT 1.5". HANDLING WITH SPS`S AND VIGOROUSLY
UPDATED LEGACY AND POINT CLICK PRODUCTS. SNOW MAP UPDATING NOW BUT
STILL GENERAL  LESS THAN 1".

730 AM ESTF: UPDATED FOR THE SNOW BAND IN SE PA INTO SW NJ. ITS
PUTTING DOWN A DUSTING THAT IS CAUSING SOME TRAVEL DIFFICULTY. A
NOWCAST IS POSTED AS WELL UPDATED SNOWMAP AND FORECASTS FOR THIS
MORNING. NO MODEL HAS THIS..N PART ..IN PART LES BAND TRAILING
INTO OUR AREA. IF WE SEE VSBY 1 MI OR LESS WE WILL UPGRADE TO AN
SPS. OUR RADAR CONTINUES IN VCP31 TO BETTER SEE THE FINER DETAILS,
PLUS ITS LOW TOP AND VERY LOW WATER CONTENT.

FROM THE MID SHIFT BELOW...

FOR A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER DAY, STILL HAVE THREE MAIN STORIES TO
TALK ABOUT FOR THE TODAY PERIOD.

SNOW...AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP ACROSS THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN NJ THROUGH
AT LEAST MID DAY. IN ADDITION, THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME. THESE FACTORS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, OR MAYBE EVEN A FAST
MOVING SNOW SQUALL, ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION. WITH
PERSISTENT DRY AIR ADVECTION, MOISTURE IS LIMITED. SO EVEN THOUGH
SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS COULD BE ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO THE VERY COLD AIR
IN PLACE, STILL EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO REMAIN BELOW ONE INCH.

WINDS...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z BEFORE IT STARTS TO DECREASE AS THE SURFACE LOW
LIFTS FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THUS, EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS POINT THOUGH, WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
(SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 31 MPH FOR AT LEAST ONE HOUR OR GUSTS
OF 46 MPH) ARE NOT ANTICIPATED, SINCE THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE THE MIXING LAYER GETS VERY DEEP.
HAVING SAID THAT THOUGH, THE GFS DOES SHOW THAT THE SUSTAINED
CRITERIA COULD BE REACHED FOR LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO THE DE BAY,
SINCE THE DIRECTION IS A FAVORED DIRECTION FOR THE FUNNELING EFFECT
OVER THE BAY. IN ADDITION, VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW THAT 40 KT WINDS ARE
ABOUT 4000 TO 5000 FT MSL. IF THE MIXING LAYER GETS DEEP ENOUGH,
SOME OF THAT COULD MIX DOWN FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ. FOR NOW THOUGH, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT IT WILL BE
REACHED SO WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

COLD...TODAY BEGINS THE COLD STRETCH WHICH WE ARE EXPECTING TO
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE TODAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE WARMEST
OF THE NEXT 4 DAYS, THE REGION SHOULD STAY BELOW FREEZING, AND
PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS AND NW NJ MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE TEENS.
THIS WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN THE WINDY
CONDITIONS, WIND CHILL VALUES ACROSS THE REGION WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN
THE TEENS AT BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN, AND CONSEQUENTLY WINDS DIMINISH, AND CLOUDS
WILL DISSIPATE. AS A RESULT, SHOULD SEE CONSIDERABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS AND WIND CHILL
VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUR UPDATED BRIEFING PACKAGE AT MIDDAY WILL INCLUDE MORE INFORMATION
ON THE UPCOMING DANGEROUS COLD, INCLUDING A POSSIBLE WIND CHILL
WATCH FOR SAT NIGHT WHICH IS ALREADY A HIGH CONFIDENCE LIKELIHOOD.

THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE BOTH THE PROSPECTS FOR THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON CENTERED ON SUNDAY MORNING AND A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP.
THESE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER AN INCH.

BEHIND THE FRONT, IT WILL BE A VERY COLD AND WINDY PERIOD WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE NW FLOW OFF OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE FAVORED REGIONS TO
SEE SNOW SHOWERS ARE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS OF EASTERN PA AND
NW NJ. BUFKIT ANALYSIS YIELDS THE POTENTIAL FOR 30-40 MPH GUSTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE GUST POTENTIAL. THE STRONG CAA WILL NOT ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE MUCH DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. MODELING HAS BEEN HOLDING STEADY ON THE
IDEA THAT 850 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE BELOW -25C. WILL
NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE DEGREE OF THE COLD AIR
BEING MODELED. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS, THOUGH NOT AS STRONG
AS ON SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.
THE COLD AND WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS FROM -10 TO -30 BELOW
ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. PLEASE TO MAKE SURE TO
PREPARE FOR THE COLD WEATHER THAT IS COMING. PREPARATIONS INCLUDE
CHECKING PIPES AND MAKING SURE YOUR VEHICLE IS IN GOOD WORKING
CONDITION. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY NEAR OR
BELOW ZERO AS WELL. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION ON RECORD
POTENTIAL.

PRESIDENTS DAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS
CURRENTLY MODELED TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. THE 00Z 2/11 OPERATIONAL
MODELS HAVE NARROWED THE GOAL POSTS OF POSSIBLE TRACKS FROM
EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THIS ALSO MATCHES OR IS JUST EAST OF THE 12Z
2/10 ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACK. THIS TRACK GOES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
AL/GA NORTHEAST TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINE THEN DUE NORTH UP THE
EAST COAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TWO MAIN FEATURES ARE
PRESENT TO TRACK WITH REGARDS TO MODELS OR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES
CHANGING THE FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IN FUTURE RUNS. THIS
FIRST IS A LEADING SHORTWAVE WHICH MOVES INTO THE THE OHIO VALLEY
ON MONDAY AND THE SECOND IS THE DEGREE OF MID- LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
THAT OCCUR AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WOULD
TEND TO PUSH THE OVERALL TROUGH WITH THIS STORM FURTHER EAST.
WHILE A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER MID- LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES LEADING TO A FURTHER WEST TRACK OF THE LOW. RIGHT NOW THE
FAVORED TRACK WOULD RESULT IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. IT WILL LIKELY BE WINDY AS WELL WITH THE
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NEAR THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY: THE REGION SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AS
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION.
SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AS 2/11 00Z ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER SYSTEM
INTO THE REGION BY THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. BRIEF IFR CONDS IN SNOW SHOWERS
VCNTY KPHL NORTH THROUGH TTN ABE AND RDG. TIMING UNCERTAIN AND
HANDLING AS NEAR TERM FCST. THESE MESOSCALE BANDS DONT APPEAR TO
BE WELL HANDLED BY OUR HRRR HRRRX PRODUCTS NOR RUC/RAP. NEW 12Z/11
NAM HAS A NEW BAND DEVELOPING NEAR AND N OF I-80 THIS AFTN.

BASICALLY A LES CONNECTION FROM LERIE SEWD INTO SRN PA AND THEN
EWD TO NEAR PHL. THAT MAY REFOCUS NEAR I80 OR I78 THIS AFTN.

WEST WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO 30 KT BY 16Z. ISOLATED 35 KT POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 4000 FT DURING THE EVENING BECOMING
CLEAR. GUSTY WNW WINDS 20-30 KT SLOWLY DIMINISHING DURING THE
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY: VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 25 KNOTS.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY THEN BECOMING MVFR AND
IFR BY EVENING WITH RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
GALES IN PROGRESS AND GLW CONTINUES AS POSTED. AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED
FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE OVER NIGHT HOURS ONCE THE GALES SUBSIDE.

LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS OCCURRING AND CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED ON
THE BAY AS WELL AS THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS.

OUTLOOK...

OUR AFTERNOON MARINE PRODUCTS WILL HEADLINE A NEW HIGH CONFIDENCE
GALE WATCH FOR THE PERIOD ROUGHLY 4 AM SATURDAY THROUGH 8 AM
SUNDAY.

SO WHILE, SEAS AND WINDS WILL START OUT FAIRLY LIGHT ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, A QUICK RAMP UP IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND REACH GALE FORCE BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE GALE FORCE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE FOR GALES ON SATURDAY IS
VERY HIGH. SEAS WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET FOR A PERIOD AS
WELL ON SATURDAY. SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE ON
SUNDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY START INCREASING AGAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN SEVERAL
DEGREES OF ZERO (WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY EXCEPT COLDER KMPO (NEAR -12F). THIS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/ECMWF 2M TEMPS CYCLICALLY SINCE AT LEAST THE
00Z/7 OPERATIONAL CYCLES. THEREFORE, BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD
EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY THE 14TH WOULD BE KABE,
KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

SNOW COVER MAY HELP A BIT I-95 NORTHWESTWARD...AND WE`LL SEE
WHERE WE ARE WITH SNOW COVER BY THURSDAY EVENING. NEW DUSTINGS
APPEAR ON THE WAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS AN ADDED NOTE HERE... GUIDANCE IN PART IS BEING CLIMO BIASED
HIGHER THAN WHAT THE ONCOMING GFS/ECMWF LITERAL AIRMASS AND 2M
TEMPS ARE INDICATING FOR SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE URBAN AREAS SHOULD BE ABOUT 25 COLDER THAN NORMAL. THAT MEANS
GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR PHL OF 5 AND 6 DEGREES APPEAR TOO WARM...ESPECIALLY
WITH A NORMAL PHILADELPHIA LOW ON SUNDAY OF 28.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE
14TH, IF THEN.


SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH ----RER LOW MAX
---------------------- --------------------

ABE             8                         -1 IN 1979     14-1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979     13-1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979     14-1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979     13-1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

SO, THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY 30 BELOW IN
THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON  930A
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 930A
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 930A
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 111430
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
930 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND THEN
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY, ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY. THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM ESTF: WE THINK 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN NARROW BANDS. ALREADY
UNCONFIRMED REPORT 1.5". HANDLING WITH SPS`S AND VIGOROUSLY
UPDATED LEGACY AND POINT CLICK PRODUCTS. SNOW MAP UPDATING NOW BUT
STILL GENERAL  LESS THAN 1".

730 AM ESTF: UPDATED FOR THE SNOW BAND IN SE PA INTO SW NJ. ITS
PUTTING DOWN A DUSTING THAT IS CAUSING SOME TRAVEL DIFFICULTY. A
NOWCAST IS POSTED AS WELL UPDATED SNOWMAP AND FORECASTS FOR THIS
MORNING. NO MODEL HAS THIS..N PART ..IN PART LES BAND TRAILING
INTO OUR AREA. IF WE SEE VSBY 1 MI OR LESS WE WILL UPGRADE TO AN
SPS. OUR RADAR CONTINUES IN VCP31 TO BETTER SEE THE FINER DETAILS,
PLUS ITS LOW TOP AND VERY LOW WATER CONTENT.

FROM THE MID SHIFT BELOW...

FOR A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER DAY, STILL HAVE THREE MAIN STORIES TO
TALK ABOUT FOR THE TODAY PERIOD.

SNOW...AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP ACROSS THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN NJ THROUGH
AT LEAST MID DAY. IN ADDITION, THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME. THESE FACTORS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, OR MAYBE EVEN A FAST
MOVING SNOW SQUALL, ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION. WITH
PERSISTENT DRY AIR ADVECTION, MOISTURE IS LIMITED. SO EVEN THOUGH
SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS COULD BE ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO THE VERY COLD AIR
IN PLACE, STILL EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO REMAIN BELOW ONE INCH.

WINDS...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z BEFORE IT STARTS TO DECREASE AS THE SURFACE LOW
LIFTS FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THUS, EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS POINT THOUGH, WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
(SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 31 MPH FOR AT LEAST ONE HOUR OR GUSTS
OF 46 MPH) ARE NOT ANTICIPATED, SINCE THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE THE MIXING LAYER GETS VERY DEEP.
HAVING SAID THAT THOUGH, THE GFS DOES SHOW THAT THE SUSTAINED
CRITERIA COULD BE REACHED FOR LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO THE DE BAY,
SINCE THE DIRECTION IS A FAVORED DIRECTION FOR THE FUNNELING EFFECT
OVER THE BAY. IN ADDITION, VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW THAT 40 KT WINDS ARE
ABOUT 4000 TO 5000 FT MSL. IF THE MIXING LAYER GETS DEEP ENOUGH,
SOME OF THAT COULD MIX DOWN FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ. FOR NOW THOUGH, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT IT WILL BE
REACHED SO WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

COLD...TODAY BEGINS THE COLD STRETCH WHICH WE ARE EXPECTING TO
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE TODAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE WARMEST
OF THE NEXT 4 DAYS, THE REGION SHOULD STAY BELOW FREEZING, AND
PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS AND NW NJ MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE TEENS.
THIS WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN THE WINDY
CONDITIONS, WIND CHILL VALUES ACROSS THE REGION WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN
THE TEENS AT BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN, AND CONSEQUENTLY WINDS DIMINISH, AND CLOUDS
WILL DISSIPATE. AS A RESULT, SHOULD SEE CONSIDERABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS AND WIND CHILL
VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUR UPDATED BRIEFING PACKAGE AT MIDDAY WILL INCLUDE MORE INFORMATION
ON THE UPCOMING DANGEROUS COLD, INCLUDING A POSSIBLE WIND CHILL
WATCH FOR SAT NIGHT WHICH IS ALREADY A HIGH CONFIDENCE LIKELIHOOD.

THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE BOTH THE PROSPECTS FOR THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON CENTERED ON SUNDAY MORNING AND A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP.
THESE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER AN INCH.

BEHIND THE FRONT, IT WILL BE A VERY COLD AND WINDY PERIOD WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE NW FLOW OFF OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE FAVORED REGIONS TO
SEE SNOW SHOWERS ARE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS OF EASTERN PA AND
NW NJ. BUFKIT ANALYSIS YIELDS THE POTENTIAL FOR 30-40 MPH GUSTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE GUST POTENTIAL. THE STRONG CAA WILL NOT ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE MUCH DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. MODELING HAS BEEN HOLDING STEADY ON THE
IDEA THAT 850 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE BELOW -25C. WILL
NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE DEGREE OF THE COLD AIR
BEING MODELED. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS, THOUGH NOT AS STRONG
AS ON SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.
THE COLD AND WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS FROM -10 TO -30 BELOW
ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. PLEASE TO MAKE SURE TO
PREPARE FOR THE COLD WEATHER THAT IS COMING. PREPARATIONS INCLUDE
CHECKING PIPES AND MAKING SURE YOUR VEHICLE IS IN GOOD WORKING
CONDITION. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY NEAR OR
BELOW ZERO AS WELL. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION ON RECORD
POTENTIAL.

PRESIDENTS DAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS
CURRENTLY MODELED TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. THE 00Z 2/11 OPERATIONAL
MODELS HAVE NARROWED THE GOAL POSTS OF POSSIBLE TRACKS FROM
EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THIS ALSO MATCHES OR IS JUST EAST OF THE 12Z
2/10 ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACK. THIS TRACK GOES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
AL/GA NORTHEAST TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINE THEN DUE NORTH UP THE
EAST COAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TWO MAIN FEATURES ARE
PRESENT TO TRACK WITH REGARDS TO MODELS OR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES
CHANGING THE FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IN FUTURE RUNS. THIS
FIRST IS A LEADING SHORTWAVE WHICH MOVES INTO THE THE OHIO VALLEY
ON MONDAY AND THE SECOND IS THE DEGREE OF MID- LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
THAT OCCUR AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WOULD
TEND TO PUSH THE OVERALL TROUGH WITH THIS STORM FURTHER EAST.
WHILE A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER MID- LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES LEADING TO A FURTHER WEST TRACK OF THE LOW. RIGHT NOW THE
FAVORED TRACK WOULD RESULT IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. IT WILL LIKELY BE WINDY AS WELL WITH THE
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NEAR THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY: THE REGION SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AS
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION.
SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AS 2/11 00Z ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER SYSTEM
INTO THE REGION BY THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. BRIEF IFR CONDS IN SNOW SHOWERS
VCNTY KPHL NORTH THROUGH TTN ABE AND RDG. TIMING UNCERTAIN AND
HANDLING AS NEAR TERM FCST. THESE MESOSCALE BANDS DONT APPEAR TO
BE WELL HANDLED BY OUR HRRR HRRRX PRODUCTS NOR RUC/RAP. NEW 12Z/11
NAM HAS A NEW BAND DEVELOPING NEAR AND N OF I-80 THIS AFTN.

BASICALLY A LES CONNECTION FROM LERIE SEWD INTO SRN PA AND THEN
EWD TO NEAR PHL. THAT MAY REFOCUS NEAR I80 OR I78 THIS AFTN.

WEST WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO 30 KT BY 16Z. ISOLATED 35 KT POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 4000 FT DURING THE EVENING BECOMING
CLEAR. GUSTY WNW WINDS 20-30 KT SLOWLY DIMINISHING DURING THE
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY: VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 25 KNOTS.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY THEN BECOMING MVFR AND
IFR BY EVENING WITH RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
GALES IN PROGRESS AND GLW CONTINUES AS POSTED. AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED
FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE OVER NIGHT HOURS ONCE THE GALES SUBSIDE.

LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS OCCURRING AND CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED ON
THE BAY AS WELL AS THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS.

OUTLOOK...

OUR AFTERNOON MARINE PRODUCTS WILL HEADLINE A NEW HIGH CONFIDENCE
GALE WATCH FOR THE PERIOD ROUGHLY 4 AM SATURDAY THROUGH 8 AM
SUNDAY.

SO WHILE, SEAS AND WINDS WILL START OUT FAIRLY LIGHT ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, A QUICK RAMP UP IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND REACH GALE FORCE BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE GALE FORCE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE FOR GALES ON SATURDAY IS
VERY HIGH. SEAS WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET FOR A PERIOD AS
WELL ON SATURDAY. SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE ON
SUNDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY START INCREASING AGAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN SEVERAL
DEGREES OF ZERO (WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY EXCEPT COLDER KMPO (NEAR -12F). THIS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/ECMWF 2M TEMPS CYCLICALLY SINCE AT LEAST THE
00Z/7 OPERATIONAL CYCLES. THEREFORE, BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD
EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY THE 14TH WOULD BE KABE,
KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

SNOW COVER MAY HELP A BIT I-95 NORTHWESTWARD...AND WE`LL SEE
WHERE WE ARE WITH SNOW COVER BY THURSDAY EVENING. NEW DUSTINGS
APPEAR ON THE WAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS AN ADDED NOTE HERE... GUIDANCE IN PART IS BEING CLIMO BIASED
HIGHER THAN WHAT THE ONCOMING GFS/ECMWF LITERAL AIRMASS AND 2M
TEMPS ARE INDICATING FOR SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE URBAN AREAS SHOULD BE ABOUT 25 COLDER THAN NORMAL. THAT MEANS
GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR PHL OF 5 AND 6 DEGREES APPEAR TOO WARM...ESPECIALLY
WITH A NORMAL PHILADELPHIA LOW ON SUNDAY OF 28.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE
14TH, IF THEN.


SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH ----RER LOW MAX
---------------------- --------------------

ABE             8                         -1 IN 1979     14-1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979     13-1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979     14-1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979     13-1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

SO, THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY 30 BELOW IN
THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON  930A
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 930A
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 930A
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 111334
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
834 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND THEN
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY, ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY. THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
730 AM ESTF: UPDATED FOR THE SNOW BAND IN SE PA INTO SW NJ. ITS
PUTTING DOWN A DUSTING THAT IS CAUSING SOME TRAVEL DIFFICULTY. A
NOWCAST IS POSTED AS WELL UPDATED SNOWMAP AND FORECASTS FOR THIS
MORNING. NO MODEL HAS THIS..N PART ..IN PART LES BAND TRAILING
INTO OUR AREA. IF WE SEE VSBY 1 MI OR LESS WE WILL UPGRADE TO AN
SPS. OUR RADAR CONTINUES IN VCP31 TO BETTER SEE THE FINER DETAILS,
PLUS ITS LOW TOP AND VERY LOW WATER CONTENT.

FROM THE MID SHIFT BELOW...

FOR A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER DAY, STILL HAVE THREE MAIN STORIES TO
TALK ABOUT FOR THE TODAY PERIOD.

SNOW...AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP ACROSS THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN NJ THROUGH
AT LEAST MID DAY. IN ADDITION, THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME. THESE FACTORS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, OR MAYBE EVEN A FAST
MOVING SNOW SQUALL, ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION. WITH
PERSISTENT DRY AIR ADVECTION, MOISTURE IS LIMITED. SO EVEN THOUGH
SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS COULD BE ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO THE VERY COLD AIR
IN PLACE, STILL EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO REMAIN BELOW ONE INCH.

WINDS...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z BEFORE IT STARTS TO DECREASE AS THE SURFACE LOW
LIFTS FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THUS, EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS POINT THOUGH, WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
(SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 31 MPH FOR AT LEAST ONE HOUR OR GUSTS
OF 46 MPH) ARE NOT ANTICIPATED, SINCE THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE THE MIXING LAYER GETS VERY DEEP.
HAVING SAID THAT THOUGH, THE GFS DOES SHOW THAT THE SUSTAINED
CRITERIA COULD BE REACHED FOR LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO THE DE BAY,
SINCE THE DIRECTION IS A FAVORED DIRECTION FOR THE FUNNELING EFFECT
OVER THE BAY. IN ADDITION, VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW THAT 40 KT WINDS ARE
ABOUT 4000 TO 5000 FT MSL. IF THE MIXING LAYER GETS DEEP ENOUGH,
SOME OF THAT COULD MIX DOWN FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ. FOR NOW THOUGH, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT IT WILL BE
REACHED SO WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

COLD...TODAY BEGINS THE COLD STRETCH WHICH WE ARE EXPECTING TO
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE TODAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE WARMEST
OF THE NEXT 4 DAYS, THE REGION SHOULD STAY BELOW FREEZING, AND
PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS AND NW NJ MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE TEENS.
THIS WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN THE WINDY
CONDITIONS, WIND CHILL VALUES ACROSS THE REGION WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN
THE TEENS AT BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN, AND CONSEQUENTLY WINDS DIMINISH, AND CLOUDS
WILL DISSIPATE. AS A RESULT, SHOULD SEE CONSIDERABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS AND WIND CHILL
VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUR UPDATED BRIEFING PACKAGE AT MIDDAY WILL INCLUDE MORE INFORMATION
ON THE UPCOMING DANGEROUS COLD, INCLUDING A POSSIBLE WIND CHILL
WATCH FOR SAT NIGHT WHICH IS ALREADY A HIGH CONFIDENCE LIKELIHOOD.

THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE BOTH THE PROSPECTS FOR THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON CENTERED ON SUNDAY MORNING AND A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP.
THESE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER AN INCH.

BEHIND THE FRONT, IT WILL BE A VERY COLD AND WINDY PERIOD WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE NW FLOW OFF OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE FAVORED REGIONS TO
SEE SNOW SHOWERS ARE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS OF EASTERN PA AND
NW NJ. BUFKIT ANALYSIS YIELDS THE POTENTIAL FOR 30-40 MPH GUSTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE GUST POTENTIAL. THE STRONG CAA WILL NOT ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE MUCH DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. MODELING HAS BEEN HOLDING STEADY ON THE
IDEA THAT 850 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE BELOW -25C. WILL
NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE DEGREE OF THE COLD AIR
BEING MODELED. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS, THOUGH NOT AS STRONG
AS ON SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.
THE COLD AND WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS FROM -10 TO -30 BELOW
ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. PLEASE TO MAKE SURE TO
PREPARE FOR THE COLD WEATHER THAT IS COMING. PREPARATIONS INCLUDE
CHECKING PIPES AND MAKING SURE YOUR VEHICLE IS IN GOOD WORKING
CONDITION. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY NEAR OR
BELOW ZERO AS WELL. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION ON RECORD
POTENTIAL.

PRESIDENTS DAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS
CURRENTLY MODELED TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. THE 00Z 2/11 OPERATIONAL
MODELS HAVE NARROWED THE GOAL POSTS OF POSSIBLE TRACKS FROM
EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THIS ALSO MATCHES OR IS JUST EAST OF THE 12Z
2/10 ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACK. THIS TRACK GOES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
AL/GA NORTHEAST TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINE THEN DUE NORTH UP THE
EAST COAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TWO MAIN FEATURES ARE
PRESENT TO TRACK WITH REGARDS TO MODELS OR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES
CHANGING THE FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IN FUTURE RUNS. THIS
FIRST IS A LEADING SHORTWAVE WHICH MOVES INTO THE THE OHIO VALLEY
ON MONDAY AND THE SECOND IS THE DEGREE OF MID- LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
THAT OCCUR AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WOULD
TEND TO PUSH THE OVERALL TROUGH WITH THIS STORM FURTHER EAST.
WHILE A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER MID- LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES LEADING TO A FURTHER WEST TRACK OF THE LOW. RIGHT NOW THE
FAVORED TRACK WOULD RESULT IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. IT WILL LIKELY BE WINDY AS WELL WITH THE
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NEAR THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY: THE REGION SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AS
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION.
SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AS 2/11 00Z ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER SYSTEM
INTO THE REGION BY THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. BRIEF IFR CONDS IN SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS...PROBABLY KPNE BY 1330Z. WEST WIND
GUSTS INCREASING TO 30 KT BY 15 OR 16Z. ISOLATED 35 KT POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 4000 FT DURING THE EVENING
BECOMING CLEAR. GUSTY WNW WINDS 20-30 KT SLOWLY DIMINISHING DURING
THE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY: VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 25 KNOTS.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY THEN BECOMING MVFR AND
IFR BY EVENING WITH RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
GALES IN PROGRESS AND GLW CONTINUES AS POSTED. AN SCA WILL BE
NEEDED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE OVER NIGHT HOURS ONCE THE GALES
SUBSIDE.

LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS OCCURRING AND CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED ON
THE BAY AS WELL AS THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS.

OUTLOOK...

OUR AFTERNOON MARINE PRODUCTS WILL HEADLINE A NEW HIGH CONFIDENCE GALE
WATCH FOR THE PERIOD ROUGHLY 4 AM SATURDAY THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY.

SO WHILE, SEAS AND WINDS WILL START OUT FAIRLY LIGHT ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, A QUICK RAMP UP IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND REACH GALE FORCE BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE GALE FORCE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE FOR GALES ON SATURDAY IS
VERY HIGH. SEAS WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET FOR A PERIOD AS
WELL ON SATURDAY. SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE ON
SUNDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY START INCREASING AGAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN SEVERAL
DEGREES OF ZERO (WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY EXCEPT COLDER KMPO (NEAR -12F). THIS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/ECMWF 2M TEMPS CYCLICALLY SINCE AT LEAST THE
00Z/7 OPERATIONAL CYCLES. THEREFORE, BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD
EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY THE 14TH WOULD BE KABE,
KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

SNOW COVER MAY HELP A BIT I-95 NORTHWESTWARD...AND WE`LL SEE
WHERE WE ARE WITH SNOW COVER BY THURSDAY EVENING. NEW DUSTINGS
APPEAR ON THE WAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS AN ADDED NOTE HERE... GUIDANCE IN PART IS BEING CLIMO BIASED
HIGHER THAN WHAT THE ONCOMING GFS/ECMWF LITERAL AIRMASS AND 2M
TEMPS ARE INDICATING FOR SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE URBAN AREAS SHOULD BE ABOUT 25 COLDER THAN NORMAL. THAT MEANS
GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR PHL OF 5 AND 6 DEGREES APPEAR TOO WARM...ESPECIALLY
WITH A NORMAL PHILADELPHIA LOW ON SUNDAY OF 28.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE
14TH, IF THEN.


SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH ----RER LOW MAX
---------------------- --------------------

ABE             8                         -1 IN 1979     14-1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979     13-1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979     14-1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979     13-1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

SO, THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY 30 BELOW IN
THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON
CLIMATE...834A




000
FXUS61 KPHI 111334
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
834 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND THEN
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY, ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY. THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
730 AM ESTF: UPDATED FOR THE SNOW BAND IN SE PA INTO SW NJ. ITS
PUTTING DOWN A DUSTING THAT IS CAUSING SOME TRAVEL DIFFICULTY. A
NOWCAST IS POSTED AS WELL UPDATED SNOWMAP AND FORECASTS FOR THIS
MORNING. NO MODEL HAS THIS..N PART ..IN PART LES BAND TRAILING
INTO OUR AREA. IF WE SEE VSBY 1 MI OR LESS WE WILL UPGRADE TO AN
SPS. OUR RADAR CONTINUES IN VCP31 TO BETTER SEE THE FINER DETAILS,
PLUS ITS LOW TOP AND VERY LOW WATER CONTENT.

FROM THE MID SHIFT BELOW...

FOR A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER DAY, STILL HAVE THREE MAIN STORIES TO
TALK ABOUT FOR THE TODAY PERIOD.

SNOW...AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP ACROSS THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN NJ THROUGH
AT LEAST MID DAY. IN ADDITION, THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME. THESE FACTORS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, OR MAYBE EVEN A FAST
MOVING SNOW SQUALL, ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION. WITH
PERSISTENT DRY AIR ADVECTION, MOISTURE IS LIMITED. SO EVEN THOUGH
SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS COULD BE ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO THE VERY COLD AIR
IN PLACE, STILL EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO REMAIN BELOW ONE INCH.

WINDS...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z BEFORE IT STARTS TO DECREASE AS THE SURFACE LOW
LIFTS FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THUS, EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS POINT THOUGH, WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
(SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 31 MPH FOR AT LEAST ONE HOUR OR GUSTS
OF 46 MPH) ARE NOT ANTICIPATED, SINCE THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE THE MIXING LAYER GETS VERY DEEP.
HAVING SAID THAT THOUGH, THE GFS DOES SHOW THAT THE SUSTAINED
CRITERIA COULD BE REACHED FOR LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO THE DE BAY,
SINCE THE DIRECTION IS A FAVORED DIRECTION FOR THE FUNNELING EFFECT
OVER THE BAY. IN ADDITION, VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW THAT 40 KT WINDS ARE
ABOUT 4000 TO 5000 FT MSL. IF THE MIXING LAYER GETS DEEP ENOUGH,
SOME OF THAT COULD MIX DOWN FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ. FOR NOW THOUGH, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT IT WILL BE
REACHED SO WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

COLD...TODAY BEGINS THE COLD STRETCH WHICH WE ARE EXPECTING TO
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE TODAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE WARMEST
OF THE NEXT 4 DAYS, THE REGION SHOULD STAY BELOW FREEZING, AND
PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS AND NW NJ MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE TEENS.
THIS WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN THE WINDY
CONDITIONS, WIND CHILL VALUES ACROSS THE REGION WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN
THE TEENS AT BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN, AND CONSEQUENTLY WINDS DIMINISH, AND CLOUDS
WILL DISSIPATE. AS A RESULT, SHOULD SEE CONSIDERABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS AND WIND CHILL
VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUR UPDATED BRIEFING PACKAGE AT MIDDAY WILL INCLUDE MORE INFORMATION
ON THE UPCOMING DANGEROUS COLD, INCLUDING A POSSIBLE WIND CHILL
WATCH FOR SAT NIGHT WHICH IS ALREADY A HIGH CONFIDENCE LIKELIHOOD.

THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE BOTH THE PROSPECTS FOR THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON CENTERED ON SUNDAY MORNING AND A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP.
THESE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER AN INCH.

BEHIND THE FRONT, IT WILL BE A VERY COLD AND WINDY PERIOD WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE NW FLOW OFF OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE FAVORED REGIONS TO
SEE SNOW SHOWERS ARE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS OF EASTERN PA AND
NW NJ. BUFKIT ANALYSIS YIELDS THE POTENTIAL FOR 30-40 MPH GUSTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE GUST POTENTIAL. THE STRONG CAA WILL NOT ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE MUCH DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. MODELING HAS BEEN HOLDING STEADY ON THE
IDEA THAT 850 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE BELOW -25C. WILL
NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE DEGREE OF THE COLD AIR
BEING MODELED. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS, THOUGH NOT AS STRONG
AS ON SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.
THE COLD AND WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS FROM -10 TO -30 BELOW
ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. PLEASE TO MAKE SURE TO
PREPARE FOR THE COLD WEATHER THAT IS COMING. PREPARATIONS INCLUDE
CHECKING PIPES AND MAKING SURE YOUR VEHICLE IS IN GOOD WORKING
CONDITION. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY NEAR OR
BELOW ZERO AS WELL. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION ON RECORD
POTENTIAL.

PRESIDENTS DAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS
CURRENTLY MODELED TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. THE 00Z 2/11 OPERATIONAL
MODELS HAVE NARROWED THE GOAL POSTS OF POSSIBLE TRACKS FROM
EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THIS ALSO MATCHES OR IS JUST EAST OF THE 12Z
2/10 ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACK. THIS TRACK GOES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
AL/GA NORTHEAST TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINE THEN DUE NORTH UP THE
EAST COAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TWO MAIN FEATURES ARE
PRESENT TO TRACK WITH REGARDS TO MODELS OR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES
CHANGING THE FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IN FUTURE RUNS. THIS
FIRST IS A LEADING SHORTWAVE WHICH MOVES INTO THE THE OHIO VALLEY
ON MONDAY AND THE SECOND IS THE DEGREE OF MID- LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
THAT OCCUR AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WOULD
TEND TO PUSH THE OVERALL TROUGH WITH THIS STORM FURTHER EAST.
WHILE A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER MID- LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES LEADING TO A FURTHER WEST TRACK OF THE LOW. RIGHT NOW THE
FAVORED TRACK WOULD RESULT IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. IT WILL LIKELY BE WINDY AS WELL WITH THE
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NEAR THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY: THE REGION SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AS
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION.
SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AS 2/11 00Z ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER SYSTEM
INTO THE REGION BY THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. BRIEF IFR CONDS IN SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS...PROBABLY KPNE BY 1330Z. WEST WIND
GUSTS INCREASING TO 30 KT BY 15 OR 16Z. ISOLATED 35 KT POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 4000 FT DURING THE EVENING
BECOMING CLEAR. GUSTY WNW WINDS 20-30 KT SLOWLY DIMINISHING DURING
THE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY: VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 25 KNOTS.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY THEN BECOMING MVFR AND
IFR BY EVENING WITH RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
GALES IN PROGRESS AND GLW CONTINUES AS POSTED. AN SCA WILL BE
NEEDED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE OVER NIGHT HOURS ONCE THE GALES
SUBSIDE.

LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS OCCURRING AND CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED ON
THE BAY AS WELL AS THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS.

OUTLOOK...

OUR AFTERNOON MARINE PRODUCTS WILL HEADLINE A NEW HIGH CONFIDENCE GALE
WATCH FOR THE PERIOD ROUGHLY 4 AM SATURDAY THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY.

SO WHILE, SEAS AND WINDS WILL START OUT FAIRLY LIGHT ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, A QUICK RAMP UP IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND REACH GALE FORCE BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE GALE FORCE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE FOR GALES ON SATURDAY IS
VERY HIGH. SEAS WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET FOR A PERIOD AS
WELL ON SATURDAY. SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE ON
SUNDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY START INCREASING AGAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN SEVERAL
DEGREES OF ZERO (WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY EXCEPT COLDER KMPO (NEAR -12F). THIS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/ECMWF 2M TEMPS CYCLICALLY SINCE AT LEAST THE
00Z/7 OPERATIONAL CYCLES. THEREFORE, BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD
EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY THE 14TH WOULD BE KABE,
KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

SNOW COVER MAY HELP A BIT I-95 NORTHWESTWARD...AND WE`LL SEE
WHERE WE ARE WITH SNOW COVER BY THURSDAY EVENING. NEW DUSTINGS
APPEAR ON THE WAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS AN ADDED NOTE HERE... GUIDANCE IN PART IS BEING CLIMO BIASED
HIGHER THAN WHAT THE ONCOMING GFS/ECMWF LITERAL AIRMASS AND 2M
TEMPS ARE INDICATING FOR SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE URBAN AREAS SHOULD BE ABOUT 25 COLDER THAN NORMAL. THAT MEANS
GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR PHL OF 5 AND 6 DEGREES APPEAR TOO WARM...ESPECIALLY
WITH A NORMAL PHILADELPHIA LOW ON SUNDAY OF 28.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE
14TH, IF THEN.


SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH ----RER LOW MAX
---------------------- --------------------

ABE             8                         -1 IN 1979     14-1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979     13-1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979     14-1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979     13-1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

SO, THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY 30 BELOW IN
THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON
CLIMATE...834A




000
FXUS61 KPHI 111334
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
834 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND THEN
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY, ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY. THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
730 AM ESTF: UPDATED FOR THE SNOW BAND IN SE PA INTO SW NJ. ITS
PUTTING DOWN A DUSTING THAT IS CAUSING SOME TRAVEL DIFFICULTY. A
NOWCAST IS POSTED AS WELL UPDATED SNOWMAP AND FORECASTS FOR THIS
MORNING. NO MODEL HAS THIS..N PART ..IN PART LES BAND TRAILING
INTO OUR AREA. IF WE SEE VSBY 1 MI OR LESS WE WILL UPGRADE TO AN
SPS. OUR RADAR CONTINUES IN VCP31 TO BETTER SEE THE FINER DETAILS,
PLUS ITS LOW TOP AND VERY LOW WATER CONTENT.

FROM THE MID SHIFT BELOW...

FOR A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER DAY, STILL HAVE THREE MAIN STORIES TO
TALK ABOUT FOR THE TODAY PERIOD.

SNOW...AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP ACROSS THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN NJ THROUGH
AT LEAST MID DAY. IN ADDITION, THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME. THESE FACTORS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, OR MAYBE EVEN A FAST
MOVING SNOW SQUALL, ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION. WITH
PERSISTENT DRY AIR ADVECTION, MOISTURE IS LIMITED. SO EVEN THOUGH
SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS COULD BE ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO THE VERY COLD AIR
IN PLACE, STILL EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO REMAIN BELOW ONE INCH.

WINDS...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z BEFORE IT STARTS TO DECREASE AS THE SURFACE LOW
LIFTS FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THUS, EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS POINT THOUGH, WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
(SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 31 MPH FOR AT LEAST ONE HOUR OR GUSTS
OF 46 MPH) ARE NOT ANTICIPATED, SINCE THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE THE MIXING LAYER GETS VERY DEEP.
HAVING SAID THAT THOUGH, THE GFS DOES SHOW THAT THE SUSTAINED
CRITERIA COULD BE REACHED FOR LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO THE DE BAY,
SINCE THE DIRECTION IS A FAVORED DIRECTION FOR THE FUNNELING EFFECT
OVER THE BAY. IN ADDITION, VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW THAT 40 KT WINDS ARE
ABOUT 4000 TO 5000 FT MSL. IF THE MIXING LAYER GETS DEEP ENOUGH,
SOME OF THAT COULD MIX DOWN FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ. FOR NOW THOUGH, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT IT WILL BE
REACHED SO WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

COLD...TODAY BEGINS THE COLD STRETCH WHICH WE ARE EXPECTING TO
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE TODAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE WARMEST
OF THE NEXT 4 DAYS, THE REGION SHOULD STAY BELOW FREEZING, AND
PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS AND NW NJ MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE TEENS.
THIS WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN THE WINDY
CONDITIONS, WIND CHILL VALUES ACROSS THE REGION WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN
THE TEENS AT BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN, AND CONSEQUENTLY WINDS DIMINISH, AND CLOUDS
WILL DISSIPATE. AS A RESULT, SHOULD SEE CONSIDERABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS AND WIND CHILL
VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUR UPDATED BRIEFING PACKAGE AT MIDDAY WILL INCLUDE MORE INFORMATION
ON THE UPCOMING DANGEROUS COLD, INCLUDING A POSSIBLE WIND CHILL
WATCH FOR SAT NIGHT WHICH IS ALREADY A HIGH CONFIDENCE LIKELIHOOD.

THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE BOTH THE PROSPECTS FOR THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON CENTERED ON SUNDAY MORNING AND A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP.
THESE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER AN INCH.

BEHIND THE FRONT, IT WILL BE A VERY COLD AND WINDY PERIOD WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE NW FLOW OFF OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE FAVORED REGIONS TO
SEE SNOW SHOWERS ARE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS OF EASTERN PA AND
NW NJ. BUFKIT ANALYSIS YIELDS THE POTENTIAL FOR 30-40 MPH GUSTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE GUST POTENTIAL. THE STRONG CAA WILL NOT ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE MUCH DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. MODELING HAS BEEN HOLDING STEADY ON THE
IDEA THAT 850 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE BELOW -25C. WILL
NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE DEGREE OF THE COLD AIR
BEING MODELED. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS, THOUGH NOT AS STRONG
AS ON SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.
THE COLD AND WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS FROM -10 TO -30 BELOW
ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. PLEASE TO MAKE SURE TO
PREPARE FOR THE COLD WEATHER THAT IS COMING. PREPARATIONS INCLUDE
CHECKING PIPES AND MAKING SURE YOUR VEHICLE IS IN GOOD WORKING
CONDITION. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY NEAR OR
BELOW ZERO AS WELL. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION ON RECORD
POTENTIAL.

PRESIDENTS DAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS
CURRENTLY MODELED TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. THE 00Z 2/11 OPERATIONAL
MODELS HAVE NARROWED THE GOAL POSTS OF POSSIBLE TRACKS FROM
EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THIS ALSO MATCHES OR IS JUST EAST OF THE 12Z
2/10 ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACK. THIS TRACK GOES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
AL/GA NORTHEAST TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINE THEN DUE NORTH UP THE
EAST COAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TWO MAIN FEATURES ARE
PRESENT TO TRACK WITH REGARDS TO MODELS OR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES
CHANGING THE FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IN FUTURE RUNS. THIS
FIRST IS A LEADING SHORTWAVE WHICH MOVES INTO THE THE OHIO VALLEY
ON MONDAY AND THE SECOND IS THE DEGREE OF MID- LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
THAT OCCUR AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WOULD
TEND TO PUSH THE OVERALL TROUGH WITH THIS STORM FURTHER EAST.
WHILE A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER MID- LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES LEADING TO A FURTHER WEST TRACK OF THE LOW. RIGHT NOW THE
FAVORED TRACK WOULD RESULT IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. IT WILL LIKELY BE WINDY AS WELL WITH THE
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NEAR THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY: THE REGION SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AS
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION.
SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AS 2/11 00Z ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER SYSTEM
INTO THE REGION BY THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. BRIEF IFR CONDS IN SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS...PROBABLY KPNE BY 1330Z. WEST WIND
GUSTS INCREASING TO 30 KT BY 15 OR 16Z. ISOLATED 35 KT POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 4000 FT DURING THE EVENING
BECOMING CLEAR. GUSTY WNW WINDS 20-30 KT SLOWLY DIMINISHING DURING
THE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY: VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 25 KNOTS.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY THEN BECOMING MVFR AND
IFR BY EVENING WITH RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
GALES IN PROGRESS AND GLW CONTINUES AS POSTED. AN SCA WILL BE
NEEDED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE OVER NIGHT HOURS ONCE THE GALES
SUBSIDE.

LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS OCCURRING AND CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED ON
THE BAY AS WELL AS THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS.

OUTLOOK...

OUR AFTERNOON MARINE PRODUCTS WILL HEADLINE A NEW HIGH CONFIDENCE GALE
WATCH FOR THE PERIOD ROUGHLY 4 AM SATURDAY THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY.

SO WHILE, SEAS AND WINDS WILL START OUT FAIRLY LIGHT ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, A QUICK RAMP UP IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND REACH GALE FORCE BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE GALE FORCE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE FOR GALES ON SATURDAY IS
VERY HIGH. SEAS WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET FOR A PERIOD AS
WELL ON SATURDAY. SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE ON
SUNDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY START INCREASING AGAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN SEVERAL
DEGREES OF ZERO (WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY EXCEPT COLDER KMPO (NEAR -12F). THIS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/ECMWF 2M TEMPS CYCLICALLY SINCE AT LEAST THE
00Z/7 OPERATIONAL CYCLES. THEREFORE, BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD
EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY THE 14TH WOULD BE KABE,
KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

SNOW COVER MAY HELP A BIT I-95 NORTHWESTWARD...AND WE`LL SEE
WHERE WE ARE WITH SNOW COVER BY THURSDAY EVENING. NEW DUSTINGS
APPEAR ON THE WAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS AN ADDED NOTE HERE... GUIDANCE IN PART IS BEING CLIMO BIASED
HIGHER THAN WHAT THE ONCOMING GFS/ECMWF LITERAL AIRMASS AND 2M
TEMPS ARE INDICATING FOR SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE URBAN AREAS SHOULD BE ABOUT 25 COLDER THAN NORMAL. THAT MEANS
GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR PHL OF 5 AND 6 DEGREES APPEAR TOO WARM...ESPECIALLY
WITH A NORMAL PHILADELPHIA LOW ON SUNDAY OF 28.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE
14TH, IF THEN.


SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH ----RER LOW MAX
---------------------- --------------------

ABE             8                         -1 IN 1979     14-1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979     13-1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979     14-1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979     13-1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

SO, THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY 30 BELOW IN
THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON
CLIMATE...834A



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 111331
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
831 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF TODAY BEFORE RETURNING WITH A FRIDAY
COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NMRS SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONT THIS MRNG
BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF LATER TODAY. MDL PROGGED AND
OBSERVED UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW LWRG TEMP INVERSIONS...WITH THE
UPR TROF SHIFTING E. ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL EXPD N OF I 80 AND IN
THE RIDGES WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVY CONTINUES. BLDG HIGH
PRESSURE LT TODAY/TONIGHT SHOULD BRING CLRG SKIES. TEMPS 15 TO 20
DEG BELOW AVG ARE EXPD USING THE LATEST NR TERM CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO APPROACH FRI BRINGING INCRG SNOW
SHOWER CHCS. THIS WAVE IS EXPD TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT
LT FRI. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE UNDER UPR TROFG AND
LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT FRI NGT AND SAT...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPD TO REMAIN BELOW ADVY CRITERIA AS DRY ARCTIC AIR RESULTS
IN UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE SNOW GROWTH RGN. BLDG HIGH
PRESSURE SUN SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER.

WIND WITH SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT AND COLD TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADVISORY LVL WIND CHILLS ACRS MUCH
OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...WELL BELOW AVG TEMPS ARE EXPD WITH
READINGS NR OR BELOW ZERO SAT NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS STILL HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
MOVING IN SUNDAY NIGHT. TIMING IS NOW FAIRLY CONSISTENT ACROSS THE
GUIDANCE...BUT THE ECMWF QUICKLY WEAKENS THE WAVE UPON ARRIVAL.
STILL...EXPECTING AT LEAST A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY.

MODELS NOW SHOW ANOTHER DEEPER WAVE IN THE WAKE OF THE MONDAY
SYSTEM. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK INTO
THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY. WILL
NEED SEVERAL MORE MODEL CYCLE TO SORT OUT THOSE DETAILS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW SQUALLS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BETWEEN KBVI AND KFKL THROUGH THE
MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. LOCAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
MOST SITES...HOWEVER NO HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD AFFECT ANY
SITE. CIGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY AT MOST SITES BY TONIGHT

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER
COLD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING. WHILE THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY SHOULD
BE GENERALLY DRY...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ008-
     009-074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ510>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 111331
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
831 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF TODAY BEFORE RETURNING WITH A FRIDAY
COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NMRS SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONT THIS MRNG
BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF LATER TODAY. MDL PROGGED AND
OBSERVED UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW LWRG TEMP INVERSIONS...WITH THE
UPR TROF SHIFTING E. ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL EXPD N OF I 80 AND IN
THE RIDGES WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVY CONTINUES. BLDG HIGH
PRESSURE LT TODAY/TONIGHT SHOULD BRING CLRG SKIES. TEMPS 15 TO 20
DEG BELOW AVG ARE EXPD USING THE LATEST NR TERM CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO APPROACH FRI BRINGING INCRG SNOW
SHOWER CHCS. THIS WAVE IS EXPD TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT
LT FRI. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE UNDER UPR TROFG AND
LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT FRI NGT AND SAT...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPD TO REMAIN BELOW ADVY CRITERIA AS DRY ARCTIC AIR RESULTS
IN UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE SNOW GROWTH RGN. BLDG HIGH
PRESSURE SUN SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER.

WIND WITH SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT AND COLD TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADVISORY LVL WIND CHILLS ACRS MUCH
OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...WELL BELOW AVG TEMPS ARE EXPD WITH
READINGS NR OR BELOW ZERO SAT NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS STILL HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
MOVING IN SUNDAY NIGHT. TIMING IS NOW FAIRLY CONSISTENT ACROSS THE
GUIDANCE...BUT THE ECMWF QUICKLY WEAKENS THE WAVE UPON ARRIVAL.
STILL...EXPECTING AT LEAST A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY.

MODELS NOW SHOW ANOTHER DEEPER WAVE IN THE WAKE OF THE MONDAY
SYSTEM. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK INTO
THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY. WILL
NEED SEVERAL MORE MODEL CYCLE TO SORT OUT THOSE DETAILS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW SQUALLS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BETWEEN KBVI AND KFKL THROUGH THE
MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. LOCAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
MOST SITES...HOWEVER NO HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD AFFECT ANY
SITE. CIGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY AT MOST SITES BY TONIGHT

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER
COLD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING. WHILE THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY SHOULD
BE GENERALLY DRY...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ008-
     009-074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ510>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 111331
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
831 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF TODAY BEFORE RETURNING WITH A FRIDAY
COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NMRS SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONT THIS MRNG
BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF LATER TODAY. MDL PROGGED AND
OBSERVED UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW LWRG TEMP INVERSIONS...WITH THE
UPR TROF SHIFTING E. ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL EXPD N OF I 80 AND IN
THE RIDGES WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVY CONTINUES. BLDG HIGH
PRESSURE LT TODAY/TONIGHT SHOULD BRING CLRG SKIES. TEMPS 15 TO 20
DEG BELOW AVG ARE EXPD USING THE LATEST NR TERM CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO APPROACH FRI BRINGING INCRG SNOW
SHOWER CHCS. THIS WAVE IS EXPD TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT
LT FRI. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE UNDER UPR TROFG AND
LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT FRI NGT AND SAT...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPD TO REMAIN BELOW ADVY CRITERIA AS DRY ARCTIC AIR RESULTS
IN UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE SNOW GROWTH RGN. BLDG HIGH
PRESSURE SUN SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER.

WIND WITH SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT AND COLD TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADVISORY LVL WIND CHILLS ACRS MUCH
OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...WELL BELOW AVG TEMPS ARE EXPD WITH
READINGS NR OR BELOW ZERO SAT NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS STILL HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
MOVING IN SUNDAY NIGHT. TIMING IS NOW FAIRLY CONSISTENT ACROSS THE
GUIDANCE...BUT THE ECMWF QUICKLY WEAKENS THE WAVE UPON ARRIVAL.
STILL...EXPECTING AT LEAST A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY.

MODELS NOW SHOW ANOTHER DEEPER WAVE IN THE WAKE OF THE MONDAY
SYSTEM. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK INTO
THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY. WILL
NEED SEVERAL MORE MODEL CYCLE TO SORT OUT THOSE DETAILS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW SQUALLS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BETWEEN KBVI AND KFKL THROUGH THE
MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. LOCAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
MOST SITES...HOWEVER NO HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD AFFECT ANY
SITE. CIGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY AT MOST SITES BY TONIGHT

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER
COLD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING. WHILE THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY SHOULD
BE GENERALLY DRY...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ008-
     009-074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ510>514.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPHI 111257
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
757 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND THEN
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY, ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY. THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
730 AM ESTF: UPDATED FOR THE SNOW BAND IN SE PA INTO SW NJ. ITS
PUTTING DOWN A DUSTING THAT IS CAUSING SOME TRAVEL DIFFICULTY. A
NOWCAST IS POSTED AS WELL UPDATED SNOWMAP AND FORECASTS FOR THIS
MORNING. NO MODEL HAS THIS..N PART ..IN PART LES BAND TRAILING
INTO OUR AREA. IF WE SEE VSBY 1 MI OR LESS WE WILL UPGRADE TO AN
SPS. OUR RADAR CONTINUES IN VCP31 TO BETTER SEE THE FINER DETAILS,
PLUS ITS LOW TOP AND VERY LOW WATER CONTENT.

FROM THE MID SHIFT BELOW...

FOR A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER DAY, STILL HAVE THREE MAIN STORIES TO
TALK ABOUT FOR THE TODAY PERIOD.

SNOW...AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP ACROSS THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN NJ THROUGH
AT LEAST MID DAY. IN ADDITION, THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME. THESE FACTORS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, OR MAYBE EVEN A FAST
MOVING SNOW SQUALL, ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION. WITH
PERSISTENT DRY AIR ADVECTION, MOISTURE IS LIMITED. SO EVEN THOUGH
SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS COULD BE ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO THE VERY COLD AIR
IN PLACE, STILL EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO REMAIN BELOW ONE INCH.

WINDS...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z BEFORE IT STARTS TO DECREASE AS THE SURFACE LOW
LIFTS FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THUS, EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS POINT THOUGH, WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
(SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 31 MPH FOR AT LEAST ONE HOUR OR GUSTS
OF 46 MPH) ARE NOT ANTICIPATED, SINCE THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE THE MIXING LAYER GETS VERY DEEP.
HAVING SAID THAT THOUGH, THE GFS DOES SHOW THAT THE SUSTAINED
CRITERIA COULD BE REACHED FOR LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO THE DE BAY,
SINCE THE DIRECTION IS A FAVORED DIRECTION FOR THE FUNNELING EFFECT
OVER THE BAY. IN ADDITION, VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW THAT 40 KT WINDS ARE
ABOUT 4000 TO 5000 FT MSL. IF THE MIXING LAYER GETS DEEP ENOUGH,
SOME OF THAT COULD MIX DOWN FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ. FOR NOW THOUGH, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT IT WILL BE
REACHED SO WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

COLD...TODAY BEGINS THE COLD STRETCH WHICH WE ARE EXPECTING TO
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE TODAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE WARMEST
OF THE NEXT 4 DAYS, THE REGION SHOULD STAY BELOW FREEZING, AND
PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS AND NW NJ MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE TEENS.
THIS WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN THE WINDY
CONDITIONS, WIND CHILL VALUES ACROSS THE REGION WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN
THE TEENS AT BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN, AND CONSEQUENTLY WINDS DIMINISH, AND CLOUDS
WILL DISSIPATE. AS A RESULT, SHOULD SEE CONSIDERABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS AND WIND CHILL
VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUR UPDATED BRIEFING PACKAGE AT MIDDAY WILL INCLUDE MORE INFORMATION
ON THE UPCOMING DANGEROUS COLD, INCLUDING A POSSIBLE WIND CHILL
WATCH FOR SAT NIGHT WHICH IS ALREADY A HIGH CONFIDENCE LIKELIHOOD.

THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE BOTH THE PROSPECTS FOR THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON CENTERED ON SUNDAY MORNING AND A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP.
THESE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER AN INCH.

BEHIND THE FRONT, IT WILL BE A VERY COLD AND WINDY PERIOD WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE NW FLOW OFF OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE FAVORED REGIONS TO
SEE SNOW SHOWERS ARE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS OF EASTERN PA AND
NW NJ. BUFKIT ANALYSIS YIELDS THE POTENTIAL FOR 30-40 MPH GUSTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE GUST POTENTIAL. THE STRONG CAA WILL NOT ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE MUCH DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. MODELING HAS BEEN HOLDING STEADY ON THE
IDEA THAT 850 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE BELOW -25C. WILL
NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE DEGREE OF THE COLD AIR
BEING MODELED. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS, THOUGH NOT AS STRONG
AS ON SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.
THE COLD AND WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS FROM -10 TO -30 BELOW
ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. PLEASE TO MAKE SURE TO
PREPARE FOR THE COLD WEATHER THAT IS COMING. PREPARATIONS INCLUDE
CHECKING PIPES AND MAKING SURE YOUR VEHICLE IS IN GOOD WORKING
CONDITION. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY NEAR OR
BELOW ZERO AS WELL. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION ON RECORD
POTENTIAL.

PRESIDENTS DAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS
CURRENTLY MODELED TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. THE 00Z 2/11 OPERATIONAL
MODELS HAVE NARROWED THE GOAL POSTS OF POSSIBLE TRACKS FROM
EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THIS ALSO MATCHES OR IS JUST EAST OF THE 12Z
2/10 ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACK. THIS TRACK GOES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
AL/GA NORTHEAST TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINE THEN DUE NORTH UP THE
EAST COAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TWO MAIN FEATURES ARE
PRESENT TO TRACK WITH REGARDS TO MODELS OR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES
CHANGING THE FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IN FUTURE RUNS. THIS
FIRST IS A LEADING SHORTWAVE WHICH MOVES INTO THE THE OHIO VALLEY
ON MONDAY AND THE SECOND IS THE DEGREE OF MID- LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
THAT OCCUR AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WOULD
TEND TO PUSH THE OVERALL TROUGH WITH THIS STORM FURTHER EAST.
WHILE A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER MID- LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES LEADING TO A FURTHER WEST TRACK OF THE LOW. RIGHT NOW THE
FAVORED TRACK WOULD RESULT IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. IT WILL LIKELY BE WINDY AS WELL WITH THE
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NEAR THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY: THE REGION SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AS
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION.
SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AS 2/11 00Z ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER SYSTEM
INTO THE REGION BY THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. BRIEF IFR CONDS IN SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS...PROBABLY KPNE BY 1330Z. WEST WIND
GUSTS INCREASING TO 30 KT BY 15 OR 16Z. ISOLATED 35 KT POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 4000 FT DURING THE EVENING
BECOMING CLEAR. GUSTY WNW WINDS 20-30 KT SLOWLY DIMINISHING DURING
THE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY: VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 25 KNOTS.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY THEN BECOMING MVFR AND
IFR BY EVENING WITH RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
GALES IN PROGRESS AND GLW CONTINUES AS POSTED. AN SCA WILL BE
NEEDED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE OVER NIGHT HOURS ONCE THE GALES
SUBSIDE.

LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS OCCURRING AND CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED ON
THE BAY AS WELL AS THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS.

OUTLOOK...

OUR AFTERNOON MARINE PRODUCTS WILL HEADLINE A NEW HIGH CONFIDENCE GALE
WATCH FOR THE PERIOD ROUGHLY 4 AM SATURDAY THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY.

SO WHILE, SEAS AND WINDS WILL START OUT FAIRLY LIGHT ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, A QUICK RAMP UP IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND REACH GALE FORCE BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE GALE FORCE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE FOR GALES ON SATURDAY IS
VERY HIGH. SEAS WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET FOR A PERIOD AS
WELL ON SATURDAY. SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE ON
SUNDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY START INCREASING AGAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN SEVERAL
DEGREES OF ZERO (WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY EXCEPT COLDER KMPO (NEAR -12F). THIS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/ECMWF 2M TEMPS CYCLICALLY SINCE AT LEAST THE
00Z/7 OPERATIONAL CYCLES. THEREFORE, BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD
EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY THE 14TH WOULD BE KABE,
KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

SNOW COVER MAY HELP A BIT I-95 NORTHWESTWARD...AND WE`LL SEE
WHERE WE ARE WITH SNOW COVER BY THURSDAY EVENING. NEW DUSTINGS
APPEAR ON THE WAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS AN ADDED NOTE HERE... GUIDANCE IN PART IS BEING CLIMO BIASED
HIGHER THAN WHAT THE ONCOMING GFS/ECMWF LITERAL AIRMASS AND 2M
TEMPS ARE INDICATING FOR SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE URBAN AREAS SHOULD BE ABOUT 25 COLDER THAN NORMAL. THAT MEANS
GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR PHL OF 5 AND 6 DEGREES APPEAR TOO WARM...ESPECIALLY
WITH A NORMAL PHILADELPHIA LOW ON SUNDAY OF 28.

WE SOON WILL ADD RECORD LOW MAX`S WHERE WE THINK THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR SUNDAY.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH ----
---------------------- --------------------

ABE              8                        -1 IN 1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

SO, THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY 30 BELOW IN
THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 757
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 757
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 757
CLIMATE...757




000
FXUS61 KPHI 111257
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
757 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND THEN
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY, ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY. THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
730 AM ESTF: UPDATED FOR THE SNOW BAND IN SE PA INTO SW NJ. ITS
PUTTING DOWN A DUSTING THAT IS CAUSING SOME TRAVEL DIFFICULTY. A
NOWCAST IS POSTED AS WELL UPDATED SNOWMAP AND FORECASTS FOR THIS
MORNING. NO MODEL HAS THIS..N PART ..IN PART LES BAND TRAILING
INTO OUR AREA. IF WE SEE VSBY 1 MI OR LESS WE WILL UPGRADE TO AN
SPS. OUR RADAR CONTINUES IN VCP31 TO BETTER SEE THE FINER DETAILS,
PLUS ITS LOW TOP AND VERY LOW WATER CONTENT.

FROM THE MID SHIFT BELOW...

FOR A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER DAY, STILL HAVE THREE MAIN STORIES TO
TALK ABOUT FOR THE TODAY PERIOD.

SNOW...AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP ACROSS THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN NJ THROUGH
AT LEAST MID DAY. IN ADDITION, THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME. THESE FACTORS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, OR MAYBE EVEN A FAST
MOVING SNOW SQUALL, ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION. WITH
PERSISTENT DRY AIR ADVECTION, MOISTURE IS LIMITED. SO EVEN THOUGH
SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS COULD BE ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO THE VERY COLD AIR
IN PLACE, STILL EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO REMAIN BELOW ONE INCH.

WINDS...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z BEFORE IT STARTS TO DECREASE AS THE SURFACE LOW
LIFTS FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THUS, EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS POINT THOUGH, WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
(SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 31 MPH FOR AT LEAST ONE HOUR OR GUSTS
OF 46 MPH) ARE NOT ANTICIPATED, SINCE THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE THE MIXING LAYER GETS VERY DEEP.
HAVING SAID THAT THOUGH, THE GFS DOES SHOW THAT THE SUSTAINED
CRITERIA COULD BE REACHED FOR LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO THE DE BAY,
SINCE THE DIRECTION IS A FAVORED DIRECTION FOR THE FUNNELING EFFECT
OVER THE BAY. IN ADDITION, VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW THAT 40 KT WINDS ARE
ABOUT 4000 TO 5000 FT MSL. IF THE MIXING LAYER GETS DEEP ENOUGH,
SOME OF THAT COULD MIX DOWN FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ. FOR NOW THOUGH, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT IT WILL BE
REACHED SO WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

COLD...TODAY BEGINS THE COLD STRETCH WHICH WE ARE EXPECTING TO
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE TODAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE WARMEST
OF THE NEXT 4 DAYS, THE REGION SHOULD STAY BELOW FREEZING, AND
PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS AND NW NJ MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE TEENS.
THIS WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN THE WINDY
CONDITIONS, WIND CHILL VALUES ACROSS THE REGION WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN
THE TEENS AT BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN, AND CONSEQUENTLY WINDS DIMINISH, AND CLOUDS
WILL DISSIPATE. AS A RESULT, SHOULD SEE CONSIDERABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS AND WIND CHILL
VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUR UPDATED BRIEFING PACKAGE AT MIDDAY WILL INCLUDE MORE INFORMATION
ON THE UPCOMING DANGEROUS COLD, INCLUDING A POSSIBLE WIND CHILL
WATCH FOR SAT NIGHT WHICH IS ALREADY A HIGH CONFIDENCE LIKELIHOOD.

THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE BOTH THE PROSPECTS FOR THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON CENTERED ON SUNDAY MORNING AND A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP.
THESE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER AN INCH.

BEHIND THE FRONT, IT WILL BE A VERY COLD AND WINDY PERIOD WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE NW FLOW OFF OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE FAVORED REGIONS TO
SEE SNOW SHOWERS ARE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS OF EASTERN PA AND
NW NJ. BUFKIT ANALYSIS YIELDS THE POTENTIAL FOR 30-40 MPH GUSTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE GUST POTENTIAL. THE STRONG CAA WILL NOT ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE MUCH DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. MODELING HAS BEEN HOLDING STEADY ON THE
IDEA THAT 850 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE BELOW -25C. WILL
NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE DEGREE OF THE COLD AIR
BEING MODELED. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS, THOUGH NOT AS STRONG
AS ON SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.
THE COLD AND WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS FROM -10 TO -30 BELOW
ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. PLEASE TO MAKE SURE TO
PREPARE FOR THE COLD WEATHER THAT IS COMING. PREPARATIONS INCLUDE
CHECKING PIPES AND MAKING SURE YOUR VEHICLE IS IN GOOD WORKING
CONDITION. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY NEAR OR
BELOW ZERO AS WELL. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION ON RECORD
POTENTIAL.

PRESIDENTS DAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS
CURRENTLY MODELED TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. THE 00Z 2/11 OPERATIONAL
MODELS HAVE NARROWED THE GOAL POSTS OF POSSIBLE TRACKS FROM
EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THIS ALSO MATCHES OR IS JUST EAST OF THE 12Z
2/10 ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACK. THIS TRACK GOES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
AL/GA NORTHEAST TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINE THEN DUE NORTH UP THE
EAST COAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TWO MAIN FEATURES ARE
PRESENT TO TRACK WITH REGARDS TO MODELS OR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES
CHANGING THE FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IN FUTURE RUNS. THIS
FIRST IS A LEADING SHORTWAVE WHICH MOVES INTO THE THE OHIO VALLEY
ON MONDAY AND THE SECOND IS THE DEGREE OF MID- LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
THAT OCCUR AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WOULD
TEND TO PUSH THE OVERALL TROUGH WITH THIS STORM FURTHER EAST.
WHILE A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER MID- LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES LEADING TO A FURTHER WEST TRACK OF THE LOW. RIGHT NOW THE
FAVORED TRACK WOULD RESULT IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. IT WILL LIKELY BE WINDY AS WELL WITH THE
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NEAR THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY: THE REGION SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AS
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION.
SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AS 2/11 00Z ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER SYSTEM
INTO THE REGION BY THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. BRIEF IFR CONDS IN SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS...PROBABLY KPNE BY 1330Z. WEST WIND
GUSTS INCREASING TO 30 KT BY 15 OR 16Z. ISOLATED 35 KT POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 4000 FT DURING THE EVENING
BECOMING CLEAR. GUSTY WNW WINDS 20-30 KT SLOWLY DIMINISHING DURING
THE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY: VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 25 KNOTS.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY THEN BECOMING MVFR AND
IFR BY EVENING WITH RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
GALES IN PROGRESS AND GLW CONTINUES AS POSTED. AN SCA WILL BE
NEEDED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE OVER NIGHT HOURS ONCE THE GALES
SUBSIDE.

LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS OCCURRING AND CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED ON
THE BAY AS WELL AS THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS.

OUTLOOK...

OUR AFTERNOON MARINE PRODUCTS WILL HEADLINE A NEW HIGH CONFIDENCE GALE
WATCH FOR THE PERIOD ROUGHLY 4 AM SATURDAY THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY.

SO WHILE, SEAS AND WINDS WILL START OUT FAIRLY LIGHT ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, A QUICK RAMP UP IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND REACH GALE FORCE BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE GALE FORCE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE FOR GALES ON SATURDAY IS
VERY HIGH. SEAS WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET FOR A PERIOD AS
WELL ON SATURDAY. SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE ON
SUNDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY START INCREASING AGAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN SEVERAL
DEGREES OF ZERO (WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY EXCEPT COLDER KMPO (NEAR -12F). THIS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/ECMWF 2M TEMPS CYCLICALLY SINCE AT LEAST THE
00Z/7 OPERATIONAL CYCLES. THEREFORE, BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD
EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY THE 14TH WOULD BE KABE,
KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

SNOW COVER MAY HELP A BIT I-95 NORTHWESTWARD...AND WE`LL SEE
WHERE WE ARE WITH SNOW COVER BY THURSDAY EVENING. NEW DUSTINGS
APPEAR ON THE WAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS AN ADDED NOTE HERE... GUIDANCE IN PART IS BEING CLIMO BIASED
HIGHER THAN WHAT THE ONCOMING GFS/ECMWF LITERAL AIRMASS AND 2M
TEMPS ARE INDICATING FOR SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE URBAN AREAS SHOULD BE ABOUT 25 COLDER THAN NORMAL. THAT MEANS
GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR PHL OF 5 AND 6 DEGREES APPEAR TOO WARM...ESPECIALLY
WITH A NORMAL PHILADELPHIA LOW ON SUNDAY OF 28.

WE SOON WILL ADD RECORD LOW MAX`S WHERE WE THINK THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR SUNDAY.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH ----
---------------------- --------------------

ABE              8                        -1 IN 1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

SO, THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY 30 BELOW IN
THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 757
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 757
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 757
CLIMATE...757




000
FXUS61 KPHI 111257
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
757 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND THEN
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY, ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY. THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
730 AM ESTF: UPDATED FOR THE SNOW BAND IN SE PA INTO SW NJ. ITS
PUTTING DOWN A DUSTING THAT IS CAUSING SOME TRAVEL DIFFICULTY. A
NOWCAST IS POSTED AS WELL UPDATED SNOWMAP AND FORECASTS FOR THIS
MORNING. NO MODEL HAS THIS..N PART ..IN PART LES BAND TRAILING
INTO OUR AREA. IF WE SEE VSBY 1 MI OR LESS WE WILL UPGRADE TO AN
SPS. OUR RADAR CONTINUES IN VCP31 TO BETTER SEE THE FINER DETAILS,
PLUS ITS LOW TOP AND VERY LOW WATER CONTENT.

FROM THE MID SHIFT BELOW...

FOR A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER DAY, STILL HAVE THREE MAIN STORIES TO
TALK ABOUT FOR THE TODAY PERIOD.

SNOW...AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP ACROSS THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN NJ THROUGH
AT LEAST MID DAY. IN ADDITION, THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME. THESE FACTORS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, OR MAYBE EVEN A FAST
MOVING SNOW SQUALL, ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION. WITH
PERSISTENT DRY AIR ADVECTION, MOISTURE IS LIMITED. SO EVEN THOUGH
SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS COULD BE ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO THE VERY COLD AIR
IN PLACE, STILL EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO REMAIN BELOW ONE INCH.

WINDS...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z BEFORE IT STARTS TO DECREASE AS THE SURFACE LOW
LIFTS FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THUS, EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS POINT THOUGH, WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
(SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 31 MPH FOR AT LEAST ONE HOUR OR GUSTS
OF 46 MPH) ARE NOT ANTICIPATED, SINCE THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE THE MIXING LAYER GETS VERY DEEP.
HAVING SAID THAT THOUGH, THE GFS DOES SHOW THAT THE SUSTAINED
CRITERIA COULD BE REACHED FOR LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO THE DE BAY,
SINCE THE DIRECTION IS A FAVORED DIRECTION FOR THE FUNNELING EFFECT
OVER THE BAY. IN ADDITION, VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW THAT 40 KT WINDS ARE
ABOUT 4000 TO 5000 FT MSL. IF THE MIXING LAYER GETS DEEP ENOUGH,
SOME OF THAT COULD MIX DOWN FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ. FOR NOW THOUGH, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT IT WILL BE
REACHED SO WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

COLD...TODAY BEGINS THE COLD STRETCH WHICH WE ARE EXPECTING TO
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE TODAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE WARMEST
OF THE NEXT 4 DAYS, THE REGION SHOULD STAY BELOW FREEZING, AND
PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS AND NW NJ MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE TEENS.
THIS WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN THE WINDY
CONDITIONS, WIND CHILL VALUES ACROSS THE REGION WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN
THE TEENS AT BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN, AND CONSEQUENTLY WINDS DIMINISH, AND CLOUDS
WILL DISSIPATE. AS A RESULT, SHOULD SEE CONSIDERABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS AND WIND CHILL
VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUR UPDATED BRIEFING PACKAGE AT MIDDAY WILL INCLUDE MORE INFORMATION
ON THE UPCOMING DANGEROUS COLD, INCLUDING A POSSIBLE WIND CHILL
WATCH FOR SAT NIGHT WHICH IS ALREADY A HIGH CONFIDENCE LIKELIHOOD.

THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE BOTH THE PROSPECTS FOR THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON CENTERED ON SUNDAY MORNING AND A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP.
THESE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER AN INCH.

BEHIND THE FRONT, IT WILL BE A VERY COLD AND WINDY PERIOD WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE NW FLOW OFF OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE FAVORED REGIONS TO
SEE SNOW SHOWERS ARE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS OF EASTERN PA AND
NW NJ. BUFKIT ANALYSIS YIELDS THE POTENTIAL FOR 30-40 MPH GUSTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE GUST POTENTIAL. THE STRONG CAA WILL NOT ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE MUCH DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. MODELING HAS BEEN HOLDING STEADY ON THE
IDEA THAT 850 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE BELOW -25C. WILL
NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE DEGREE OF THE COLD AIR
BEING MODELED. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS, THOUGH NOT AS STRONG
AS ON SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.
THE COLD AND WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS FROM -10 TO -30 BELOW
ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. PLEASE TO MAKE SURE TO
PREPARE FOR THE COLD WEATHER THAT IS COMING. PREPARATIONS INCLUDE
CHECKING PIPES AND MAKING SURE YOUR VEHICLE IS IN GOOD WORKING
CONDITION. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY NEAR OR
BELOW ZERO AS WELL. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION ON RECORD
POTENTIAL.

PRESIDENTS DAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS
CURRENTLY MODELED TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. THE 00Z 2/11 OPERATIONAL
MODELS HAVE NARROWED THE GOAL POSTS OF POSSIBLE TRACKS FROM
EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THIS ALSO MATCHES OR IS JUST EAST OF THE 12Z
2/10 ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACK. THIS TRACK GOES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
AL/GA NORTHEAST TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINE THEN DUE NORTH UP THE
EAST COAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TWO MAIN FEATURES ARE
PRESENT TO TRACK WITH REGARDS TO MODELS OR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES
CHANGING THE FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IN FUTURE RUNS. THIS
FIRST IS A LEADING SHORTWAVE WHICH MOVES INTO THE THE OHIO VALLEY
ON MONDAY AND THE SECOND IS THE DEGREE OF MID- LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
THAT OCCUR AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WOULD
TEND TO PUSH THE OVERALL TROUGH WITH THIS STORM FURTHER EAST.
WHILE A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER MID- LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES LEADING TO A FURTHER WEST TRACK OF THE LOW. RIGHT NOW THE
FAVORED TRACK WOULD RESULT IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. IT WILL LIKELY BE WINDY AS WELL WITH THE
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NEAR THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY: THE REGION SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AS
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION.
SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AS 2/11 00Z ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER SYSTEM
INTO THE REGION BY THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. BRIEF IFR CONDS IN SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS...PROBABLY KPNE BY 1330Z. WEST WIND
GUSTS INCREASING TO 30 KT BY 15 OR 16Z. ISOLATED 35 KT POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 4000 FT DURING THE EVENING
BECOMING CLEAR. GUSTY WNW WINDS 20-30 KT SLOWLY DIMINISHING DURING
THE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY: VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 25 KNOTS.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY THEN BECOMING MVFR AND
IFR BY EVENING WITH RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
GALES IN PROGRESS AND GLW CONTINUES AS POSTED. AN SCA WILL BE
NEEDED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE OVER NIGHT HOURS ONCE THE GALES
SUBSIDE.

LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS OCCURRING AND CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED ON
THE BAY AS WELL AS THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS.

OUTLOOK...

OUR AFTERNOON MARINE PRODUCTS WILL HEADLINE A NEW HIGH CONFIDENCE GALE
WATCH FOR THE PERIOD ROUGHLY 4 AM SATURDAY THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY.

SO WHILE, SEAS AND WINDS WILL START OUT FAIRLY LIGHT ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, A QUICK RAMP UP IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND REACH GALE FORCE BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE GALE FORCE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE FOR GALES ON SATURDAY IS
VERY HIGH. SEAS WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET FOR A PERIOD AS
WELL ON SATURDAY. SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE ON
SUNDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY START INCREASING AGAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN SEVERAL
DEGREES OF ZERO (WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY EXCEPT COLDER KMPO (NEAR -12F). THIS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/ECMWF 2M TEMPS CYCLICALLY SINCE AT LEAST THE
00Z/7 OPERATIONAL CYCLES. THEREFORE, BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD
EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY THE 14TH WOULD BE KABE,
KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

SNOW COVER MAY HELP A BIT I-95 NORTHWESTWARD...AND WE`LL SEE
WHERE WE ARE WITH SNOW COVER BY THURSDAY EVENING. NEW DUSTINGS
APPEAR ON THE WAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS AN ADDED NOTE HERE... GUIDANCE IN PART IS BEING CLIMO BIASED
HIGHER THAN WHAT THE ONCOMING GFS/ECMWF LITERAL AIRMASS AND 2M
TEMPS ARE INDICATING FOR SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE URBAN AREAS SHOULD BE ABOUT 25 COLDER THAN NORMAL. THAT MEANS
GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR PHL OF 5 AND 6 DEGREES APPEAR TOO WARM...ESPECIALLY
WITH A NORMAL PHILADELPHIA LOW ON SUNDAY OF 28.

WE SOON WILL ADD RECORD LOW MAX`S WHERE WE THINK THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR SUNDAY.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH ----
---------------------- --------------------

ABE              8                        -1 IN 1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

SO, THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY 30 BELOW IN
THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 757
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 757
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 757
CLIMATE...757




000
FXUS61 KPHI 111257
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
757 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND THEN
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY, ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY. THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
730 AM ESTF: UPDATED FOR THE SNOW BAND IN SE PA INTO SW NJ. ITS
PUTTING DOWN A DUSTING THAT IS CAUSING SOME TRAVEL DIFFICULTY. A
NOWCAST IS POSTED AS WELL UPDATED SNOWMAP AND FORECASTS FOR THIS
MORNING. NO MODEL HAS THIS..N PART ..IN PART LES BAND TRAILING
INTO OUR AREA. IF WE SEE VSBY 1 MI OR LESS WE WILL UPGRADE TO AN
SPS. OUR RADAR CONTINUES IN VCP31 TO BETTER SEE THE FINER DETAILS,
PLUS ITS LOW TOP AND VERY LOW WATER CONTENT.

FROM THE MID SHIFT BELOW...

FOR A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER DAY, STILL HAVE THREE MAIN STORIES TO
TALK ABOUT FOR THE TODAY PERIOD.

SNOW...AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP ACROSS THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN NJ THROUGH
AT LEAST MID DAY. IN ADDITION, THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME. THESE FACTORS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, OR MAYBE EVEN A FAST
MOVING SNOW SQUALL, ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION. WITH
PERSISTENT DRY AIR ADVECTION, MOISTURE IS LIMITED. SO EVEN THOUGH
SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS COULD BE ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO THE VERY COLD AIR
IN PLACE, STILL EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO REMAIN BELOW ONE INCH.

WINDS...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z BEFORE IT STARTS TO DECREASE AS THE SURFACE LOW
LIFTS FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THUS, EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS POINT THOUGH, WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
(SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 31 MPH FOR AT LEAST ONE HOUR OR GUSTS
OF 46 MPH) ARE NOT ANTICIPATED, SINCE THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE THE MIXING LAYER GETS VERY DEEP.
HAVING SAID THAT THOUGH, THE GFS DOES SHOW THAT THE SUSTAINED
CRITERIA COULD BE REACHED FOR LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO THE DE BAY,
SINCE THE DIRECTION IS A FAVORED DIRECTION FOR THE FUNNELING EFFECT
OVER THE BAY. IN ADDITION, VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW THAT 40 KT WINDS ARE
ABOUT 4000 TO 5000 FT MSL. IF THE MIXING LAYER GETS DEEP ENOUGH,
SOME OF THAT COULD MIX DOWN FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ. FOR NOW THOUGH, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT IT WILL BE
REACHED SO WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

COLD...TODAY BEGINS THE COLD STRETCH WHICH WE ARE EXPECTING TO
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE TODAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE WARMEST
OF THE NEXT 4 DAYS, THE REGION SHOULD STAY BELOW FREEZING, AND
PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS AND NW NJ MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE TEENS.
THIS WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN THE WINDY
CONDITIONS, WIND CHILL VALUES ACROSS THE REGION WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN
THE TEENS AT BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN, AND CONSEQUENTLY WINDS DIMINISH, AND CLOUDS
WILL DISSIPATE. AS A RESULT, SHOULD SEE CONSIDERABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS AND WIND CHILL
VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUR UPDATED BRIEFING PACKAGE AT MIDDAY WILL INCLUDE MORE INFORMATION
ON THE UPCOMING DANGEROUS COLD, INCLUDING A POSSIBLE WIND CHILL
WATCH FOR SAT NIGHT WHICH IS ALREADY A HIGH CONFIDENCE LIKELIHOOD.

THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE BOTH THE PROSPECTS FOR THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON CENTERED ON SUNDAY MORNING AND A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP.
THESE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER AN INCH.

BEHIND THE FRONT, IT WILL BE A VERY COLD AND WINDY PERIOD WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE NW FLOW OFF OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE FAVORED REGIONS TO
SEE SNOW SHOWERS ARE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS OF EASTERN PA AND
NW NJ. BUFKIT ANALYSIS YIELDS THE POTENTIAL FOR 30-40 MPH GUSTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE GUST POTENTIAL. THE STRONG CAA WILL NOT ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE MUCH DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. MODELING HAS BEEN HOLDING STEADY ON THE
IDEA THAT 850 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE BELOW -25C. WILL
NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE DEGREE OF THE COLD AIR
BEING MODELED. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS, THOUGH NOT AS STRONG
AS ON SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.
THE COLD AND WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS FROM -10 TO -30 BELOW
ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. PLEASE TO MAKE SURE TO
PREPARE FOR THE COLD WEATHER THAT IS COMING. PREPARATIONS INCLUDE
CHECKING PIPES AND MAKING SURE YOUR VEHICLE IS IN GOOD WORKING
CONDITION. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY NEAR OR
BELOW ZERO AS WELL. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION ON RECORD
POTENTIAL.

PRESIDENTS DAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS
CURRENTLY MODELED TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. THE 00Z 2/11 OPERATIONAL
MODELS HAVE NARROWED THE GOAL POSTS OF POSSIBLE TRACKS FROM
EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THIS ALSO MATCHES OR IS JUST EAST OF THE 12Z
2/10 ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACK. THIS TRACK GOES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
AL/GA NORTHEAST TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINE THEN DUE NORTH UP THE
EAST COAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TWO MAIN FEATURES ARE
PRESENT TO TRACK WITH REGARDS TO MODELS OR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES
CHANGING THE FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IN FUTURE RUNS. THIS
FIRST IS A LEADING SHORTWAVE WHICH MOVES INTO THE THE OHIO VALLEY
ON MONDAY AND THE SECOND IS THE DEGREE OF MID- LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
THAT OCCUR AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WOULD
TEND TO PUSH THE OVERALL TROUGH WITH THIS STORM FURTHER EAST.
WHILE A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER MID- LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES LEADING TO A FURTHER WEST TRACK OF THE LOW. RIGHT NOW THE
FAVORED TRACK WOULD RESULT IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. IT WILL LIKELY BE WINDY AS WELL WITH THE
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NEAR THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY: THE REGION SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AS
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION.
SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AS 2/11 00Z ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER SYSTEM
INTO THE REGION BY THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. BRIEF IFR CONDS IN SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS...PROBABLY KPNE BY 1330Z. WEST WIND
GUSTS INCREASING TO 30 KT BY 15 OR 16Z. ISOLATED 35 KT POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 4000 FT DURING THE EVENING
BECOMING CLEAR. GUSTY WNW WINDS 20-30 KT SLOWLY DIMINISHING DURING
THE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY: VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 25 KNOTS.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY THEN BECOMING MVFR AND
IFR BY EVENING WITH RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
GALES IN PROGRESS AND GLW CONTINUES AS POSTED. AN SCA WILL BE
NEEDED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE OVER NIGHT HOURS ONCE THE GALES
SUBSIDE.

LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS OCCURRING AND CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED ON
THE BAY AS WELL AS THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS.

OUTLOOK...

OUR AFTERNOON MARINE PRODUCTS WILL HEADLINE A NEW HIGH CONFIDENCE GALE
WATCH FOR THE PERIOD ROUGHLY 4 AM SATURDAY THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY.

SO WHILE, SEAS AND WINDS WILL START OUT FAIRLY LIGHT ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, A QUICK RAMP UP IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND REACH GALE FORCE BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE GALE FORCE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE FOR GALES ON SATURDAY IS
VERY HIGH. SEAS WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET FOR A PERIOD AS
WELL ON SATURDAY. SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE ON
SUNDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY START INCREASING AGAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN SEVERAL
DEGREES OF ZERO (WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY EXCEPT COLDER KMPO (NEAR -12F). THIS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/ECMWF 2M TEMPS CYCLICALLY SINCE AT LEAST THE
00Z/7 OPERATIONAL CYCLES. THEREFORE, BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD
EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY THE 14TH WOULD BE KABE,
KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

SNOW COVER MAY HELP A BIT I-95 NORTHWESTWARD...AND WE`LL SEE
WHERE WE ARE WITH SNOW COVER BY THURSDAY EVENING. NEW DUSTINGS
APPEAR ON THE WAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS AN ADDED NOTE HERE... GUIDANCE IN PART IS BEING CLIMO BIASED
HIGHER THAN WHAT THE ONCOMING GFS/ECMWF LITERAL AIRMASS AND 2M
TEMPS ARE INDICATING FOR SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE URBAN AREAS SHOULD BE ABOUT 25 COLDER THAN NORMAL. THAT MEANS
GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR PHL OF 5 AND 6 DEGREES APPEAR TOO WARM...ESPECIALLY
WITH A NORMAL PHILADELPHIA LOW ON SUNDAY OF 28.

WE SOON WILL ADD RECORD LOW MAX`S WHERE WE THINK THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR SUNDAY.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH ----
---------------------- --------------------

ABE              8                        -1 IN 1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

SO, THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY 30 BELOW IN
THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 757
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 757
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 757
CLIMATE...757




000
FXUS61 KPHI 111257
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
757 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND THEN
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY, ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY. THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
730 AM ESTF: UPDATED FOR THE SNOW BAND IN SE PA INTO SW NJ. ITS
PUTTING DOWN A DUSTING THAT IS CAUSING SOME TRAVEL DIFFICULTY. A
NOWCAST IS POSTED AS WELL UPDATED SNOWMAP AND FORECASTS FOR THIS
MORNING. NO MODEL HAS THIS..N PART ..IN PART LES BAND TRAILING
INTO OUR AREA. IF WE SEE VSBY 1 MI OR LESS WE WILL UPGRADE TO AN
SPS. OUR RADAR CONTINUES IN VCP31 TO BETTER SEE THE FINER DETAILS,
PLUS ITS LOW TOP AND VERY LOW WATER CONTENT.

FROM THE MID SHIFT BELOW...

FOR A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER DAY, STILL HAVE THREE MAIN STORIES TO
TALK ABOUT FOR THE TODAY PERIOD.

SNOW...AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP ACROSS THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN NJ THROUGH
AT LEAST MID DAY. IN ADDITION, THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME. THESE FACTORS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, OR MAYBE EVEN A FAST
MOVING SNOW SQUALL, ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION. WITH
PERSISTENT DRY AIR ADVECTION, MOISTURE IS LIMITED. SO EVEN THOUGH
SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS COULD BE ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO THE VERY COLD AIR
IN PLACE, STILL EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO REMAIN BELOW ONE INCH.

WINDS...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z BEFORE IT STARTS TO DECREASE AS THE SURFACE LOW
LIFTS FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THUS, EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS POINT THOUGH, WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
(SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 31 MPH FOR AT LEAST ONE HOUR OR GUSTS
OF 46 MPH) ARE NOT ANTICIPATED, SINCE THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE THE MIXING LAYER GETS VERY DEEP.
HAVING SAID THAT THOUGH, THE GFS DOES SHOW THAT THE SUSTAINED
CRITERIA COULD BE REACHED FOR LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO THE DE BAY,
SINCE THE DIRECTION IS A FAVORED DIRECTION FOR THE FUNNELING EFFECT
OVER THE BAY. IN ADDITION, VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW THAT 40 KT WINDS ARE
ABOUT 4000 TO 5000 FT MSL. IF THE MIXING LAYER GETS DEEP ENOUGH,
SOME OF THAT COULD MIX DOWN FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ. FOR NOW THOUGH, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT IT WILL BE
REACHED SO WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

COLD...TODAY BEGINS THE COLD STRETCH WHICH WE ARE EXPECTING TO
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE TODAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE WARMEST
OF THE NEXT 4 DAYS, THE REGION SHOULD STAY BELOW FREEZING, AND
PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS AND NW NJ MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE TEENS.
THIS WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN THE WINDY
CONDITIONS, WIND CHILL VALUES ACROSS THE REGION WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN
THE TEENS AT BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN, AND CONSEQUENTLY WINDS DIMINISH, AND CLOUDS
WILL DISSIPATE. AS A RESULT, SHOULD SEE CONSIDERABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS AND WIND CHILL
VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUR UPDATED BRIEFING PACKAGE AT MIDDAY WILL INCLUDE MORE INFORMATION
ON THE UPCOMING DANGEROUS COLD, INCLUDING A POSSIBLE WIND CHILL
WATCH FOR SAT NIGHT WHICH IS ALREADY A HIGH CONFIDENCE LIKELIHOOD.

THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE BOTH THE PROSPECTS FOR THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON CENTERED ON SUNDAY MORNING AND A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP.
THESE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER AN INCH.

BEHIND THE FRONT, IT WILL BE A VERY COLD AND WINDY PERIOD WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE NW FLOW OFF OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE FAVORED REGIONS TO
SEE SNOW SHOWERS ARE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS OF EASTERN PA AND
NW NJ. BUFKIT ANALYSIS YIELDS THE POTENTIAL FOR 30-40 MPH GUSTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE GUST POTENTIAL. THE STRONG CAA WILL NOT ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE MUCH DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. MODELING HAS BEEN HOLDING STEADY ON THE
IDEA THAT 850 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE BELOW -25C. WILL
NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE DEGREE OF THE COLD AIR
BEING MODELED. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS, THOUGH NOT AS STRONG
AS ON SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.
THE COLD AND WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS FROM -10 TO -30 BELOW
ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. PLEASE TO MAKE SURE TO
PREPARE FOR THE COLD WEATHER THAT IS COMING. PREPARATIONS INCLUDE
CHECKING PIPES AND MAKING SURE YOUR VEHICLE IS IN GOOD WORKING
CONDITION. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY NEAR OR
BELOW ZERO AS WELL. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION ON RECORD
POTENTIAL.

PRESIDENTS DAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS
CURRENTLY MODELED TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. THE 00Z 2/11 OPERATIONAL
MODELS HAVE NARROWED THE GOAL POSTS OF POSSIBLE TRACKS FROM
EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THIS ALSO MATCHES OR IS JUST EAST OF THE 12Z
2/10 ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACK. THIS TRACK GOES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
AL/GA NORTHEAST TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINE THEN DUE NORTH UP THE
EAST COAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TWO MAIN FEATURES ARE
PRESENT TO TRACK WITH REGARDS TO MODELS OR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES
CHANGING THE FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IN FUTURE RUNS. THIS
FIRST IS A LEADING SHORTWAVE WHICH MOVES INTO THE THE OHIO VALLEY
ON MONDAY AND THE SECOND IS THE DEGREE OF MID- LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
THAT OCCUR AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WOULD
TEND TO PUSH THE OVERALL TROUGH WITH THIS STORM FURTHER EAST.
WHILE A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER MID- LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES LEADING TO A FURTHER WEST TRACK OF THE LOW. RIGHT NOW THE
FAVORED TRACK WOULD RESULT IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. IT WILL LIKELY BE WINDY AS WELL WITH THE
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NEAR THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY: THE REGION SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AS
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION.
SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AS 2/11 00Z ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER SYSTEM
INTO THE REGION BY THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. BRIEF IFR CONDS IN SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS...PROBABLY KPNE BY 1330Z. WEST WIND
GUSTS INCREASING TO 30 KT BY 15 OR 16Z. ISOLATED 35 KT POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 4000 FT DURING THE EVENING
BECOMING CLEAR. GUSTY WNW WINDS 20-30 KT SLOWLY DIMINISHING DURING
THE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY: VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 25 KNOTS.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY THEN BECOMING MVFR AND
IFR BY EVENING WITH RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
GALES IN PROGRESS AND GLW CONTINUES AS POSTED. AN SCA WILL BE
NEEDED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE OVER NIGHT HOURS ONCE THE GALES
SUBSIDE.

LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS OCCURRING AND CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED ON
THE BAY AS WELL AS THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS.

OUTLOOK...

OUR AFTERNOON MARINE PRODUCTS WILL HEADLINE A NEW HIGH CONFIDENCE GALE
WATCH FOR THE PERIOD ROUGHLY 4 AM SATURDAY THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY.

SO WHILE, SEAS AND WINDS WILL START OUT FAIRLY LIGHT ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, A QUICK RAMP UP IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND REACH GALE FORCE BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE GALE FORCE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE FOR GALES ON SATURDAY IS
VERY HIGH. SEAS WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET FOR A PERIOD AS
WELL ON SATURDAY. SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE ON
SUNDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY START INCREASING AGAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN SEVERAL
DEGREES OF ZERO (WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY EXCEPT COLDER KMPO (NEAR -12F). THIS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/ECMWF 2M TEMPS CYCLICALLY SINCE AT LEAST THE
00Z/7 OPERATIONAL CYCLES. THEREFORE, BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD
EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY THE 14TH WOULD BE KABE,
KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

SNOW COVER MAY HELP A BIT I-95 NORTHWESTWARD...AND WE`LL SEE
WHERE WE ARE WITH SNOW COVER BY THURSDAY EVENING. NEW DUSTINGS
APPEAR ON THE WAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS AN ADDED NOTE HERE... GUIDANCE IN PART IS BEING CLIMO BIASED
HIGHER THAN WHAT THE ONCOMING GFS/ECMWF LITERAL AIRMASS AND 2M
TEMPS ARE INDICATING FOR SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE URBAN AREAS SHOULD BE ABOUT 25 COLDER THAN NORMAL. THAT MEANS
GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR PHL OF 5 AND 6 DEGREES APPEAR TOO WARM...ESPECIALLY
WITH A NORMAL PHILADELPHIA LOW ON SUNDAY OF 28.

WE SOON WILL ADD RECORD LOW MAX`S WHERE WE THINK THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR SUNDAY.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH ----
---------------------- --------------------

ABE              8                        -1 IN 1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

SO, THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY 30 BELOW IN
THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 757
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 757
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 757
CLIMATE...757




000
FXUS61 KPHI 111127
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
627 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND THEN
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY, ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY. THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOR A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER DAY, STILL HAVE THREE MAIN STORIES TO
TALK ABOUT FOR THE TODAY PERIOD.

SNOW...AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP ACROSS THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN NJ THROUGH
AT LEAST MID DAY. IN ADDITION, THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME. THESE FACTORS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, OR MAYBE EVEN A FAST
MOVING SNOW SQUALL, ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION. WITH
PERSISTENT DRY AIR ADVECTION, MOISTURE IS LIMITED. SO EVEN THOUGH
SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS COULD BE ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO THE VERY COLD AIR
IN PLACE, STILL EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO REMAIN BELOW ONE INCH.

WINDS...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z BEFORE IT STARTS TO DECREASE AS THE SURFACE LOW
LIFTS FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THUS, EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS POINT THOUGH, WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
(SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 31 MPH FOR AT LEAST ONE HOUR OR GUSTS
OF 46 MPH) ARE NOT ANTICIPATED, SINCE THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE THE MIXING LAYER GETS VERY DEEP.
HAVING SAID THAT THOUGH, THE GFS DOES SHOW THAT THE SUSTAINED
CRITERIA COULD BE REACHED FOR LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO THE DE BAY,
SINCE THE DIRECTION IS A FAVORED DIRECTION FOR THE FUNNELING EFFECT
OVER THE BAY. IN ADDITION, VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW THAT 40 KT WINDS ARE
ABOUT 4000 TO 5000 FT MSL. IF THE MIXING LAYER GETS DEEP ENOUGH,
SOME OF THAT COULD MIX DOWN FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ. FOR NOW THOUGH, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT IT WILL BE
REACHED SO WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

COLD...TODAY BEGINS THE COLD STRETCH WHICH WE ARE EXPECTING TO
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE TODAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE WARMEST
OF THE NEXT 4 DAYS, THE REGION SHOULD STAY BELOW FREEZING, AND
PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS AND NW NJ MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE TEENS.
THIS WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN THE WINDY
CONDITIONS, WIND CHILL VALUES ACROSS THE REGION WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN
THE TEENS AT BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN, AND CONSEQUENTLY WINDS DIMINISH, AND CLOUDS
WILL DISSIPATE. AS A RESULT, SHOULD SEE CONSIDERABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS AND WIND CHILL
VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE BOTH THE PROSPECTS FOR THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON CENTERED ON SUNDAY MORNING AND A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP.
THESE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER AN INCH.

BEHIND THE FRONT, IT WILL BE A VERY COLD AND WINDY PERIOD WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE NW FLOW OFF OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE FAVORED REGIONS TO
SEE SNOW SHOWERS ARE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS OF EASTERN PA AND
NW NJ. BUFKIT ANALYSIS YIELDS THE POTENTIAL FOR 30-40 MPH GUSTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE GUST POTENTIAL. THE STRONG CAA WILL NOT ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE MUCH DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. MODELING HAS BEEN HOLDING STEADY ON THE
IDEA THAT 850 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE BELOW -25C. WILL
NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE DEGREE OF THE COLD AIR
BEING MODELED. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS, THOUGH NOT AS STRONG
AS ON SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.
THE COLD AND WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS FROM -10 TO -30 BELOW
ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. PLEASE TO MAKE SURE TO
PREPARE FOR THE COLD WEATHER THAT IS COMING. PREPARATIONS INCLUDE
CHECKING PIPES AND MAKING SURE YOUR VEHICLE IS IN GOOD WORKING
CONDITION. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY NEAR OR
BELOW ZERO AS WELL. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION ON RECORD
POTENTIAL.

PRESIDENTS DAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS
CURRENTLY MODELED TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. THE 00Z 2/11 OPERATIONAL
MODELS HAVE NARROWED THE GOAL POSTS OF POSSIBLE TRACKS FROM
EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THIS ALSO MATCHES OR IS JUST EAST OF THE 12Z
2/10 ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACK. THIS TRACK GOES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
AL/GA NORTHEAST TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINE THEN DUE NORTH UP THE
EAST COAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TWO MAIN FEATURES ARE
PRESENT TO TRACK WITH REGARDS TO MODELS OR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES
CHANGING THE FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IN FUTURE RUNS. THIS
FIRST IS A LEADING SHORTWAVE WHICH MOVES INTO THE THE OHIO VALLEY
ON MONDAY AND THE SECOND IS THE DEGREE OF MID- LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
THAT OCCUR AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WOULD
TEND TO PUSH THE OVERALL TROUGH WITH THIS STORM FURTHER EAST.
WHILE A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER MID- LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES LEADING TO A FURTHER WEST TRACK OF THE LOW. RIGHT NOW THE
FAVORED TRACK WOULD RESULT IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. IT WILL LIKELY BE WINDY AS WELL WITH THE
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NEAR THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY: THE REGION SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AS
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION.
SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AS 2/11 00Z ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER SYSTEM
INTO THE REGION BY THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE
OF A SNOW SHOWER MOVING INTO KPHL, KPNE, KABE, KRDG, OR KTTN
THROUGH 21Z. HOWEVER, COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED, AND TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN. SO CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE BETWEEN 15 AND 00Z. AFTER 00Z, EXPECT WINDS TO
DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY BUT REMAIN WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY: VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 25 KNOTS.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY THEN BECOMING MVFR AND
IFR BY EVENING WITH RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS
SHORTLY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WESTERLY AND
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TIME, WITH GUSTS UP TO
40 KT POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. AN SCA WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE OVER NIGHT HOURS ONCE
THE GALES SUBSIDE.

ALSO OF CONCERN TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE THE FREEZING SPRAY
EXPECTED ON THE BAY AS WELL AS THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. AT THIS
POINT, EXPECT LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY SO HAVE HELD OFF ON AN ADVISORY
AT THIS TIME, BUT OBSERVATIONS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

SEAS AND WINDS WILL START OUT FAIRLY LIGHT ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, A
QUICK RAMP UP IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND
REACH GALE FORCE BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE NEAR GALE FORCE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE FOR GALES ON SATURDAY IS CURRENTLY
HIGH. SEAS MAY REACH FIVE FEET FOR A PERIOD AS WELL ON SATURDAY.
SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE ON SUNDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL LIKELY START INCREASING AGAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN SEVERAL
DEGREES OF ZERO (WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY EXCEPT COLDER KMPO (NEAR -12F). THIS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/ECMWF 2M TEMPS CYCLICALLY SINCE AT LEAST THE
00Z/7 OPERATIONAL CYCLES. THEREFORE, BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD
EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY THE 14TH WOULD BE KABE,
KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

SNOW COVER MAY HELP A BIT I-95 NORTHWESTWARD...AND WE`LL SEE
WHERE WE ARE WITH SNOW COVER BY THURSDAY EVENING. NEW DUSTINGS
APPEAR ON THE WAY THE NEXT 30 HOURS.

SITE     2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR      RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH
----     ----------------------      --------------------

ABE              8                        -1 IN 1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

SO, THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY 30 BELOW IN
THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 111127
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
627 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND THEN
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY, ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY. THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOR A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER DAY, STILL HAVE THREE MAIN STORIES TO
TALK ABOUT FOR THE TODAY PERIOD.

SNOW...AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP ACROSS THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN NJ THROUGH
AT LEAST MID DAY. IN ADDITION, THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME. THESE FACTORS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, OR MAYBE EVEN A FAST
MOVING SNOW SQUALL, ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION. WITH
PERSISTENT DRY AIR ADVECTION, MOISTURE IS LIMITED. SO EVEN THOUGH
SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS COULD BE ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO THE VERY COLD AIR
IN PLACE, STILL EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO REMAIN BELOW ONE INCH.

WINDS...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z BEFORE IT STARTS TO DECREASE AS THE SURFACE LOW
LIFTS FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THUS, EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS POINT THOUGH, WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
(SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 31 MPH FOR AT LEAST ONE HOUR OR GUSTS
OF 46 MPH) ARE NOT ANTICIPATED, SINCE THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE THE MIXING LAYER GETS VERY DEEP.
HAVING SAID THAT THOUGH, THE GFS DOES SHOW THAT THE SUSTAINED
CRITERIA COULD BE REACHED FOR LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO THE DE BAY,
SINCE THE DIRECTION IS A FAVORED DIRECTION FOR THE FUNNELING EFFECT
OVER THE BAY. IN ADDITION, VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW THAT 40 KT WINDS ARE
ABOUT 4000 TO 5000 FT MSL. IF THE MIXING LAYER GETS DEEP ENOUGH,
SOME OF THAT COULD MIX DOWN FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ. FOR NOW THOUGH, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT IT WILL BE
REACHED SO WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

COLD...TODAY BEGINS THE COLD STRETCH WHICH WE ARE EXPECTING TO
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE TODAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE WARMEST
OF THE NEXT 4 DAYS, THE REGION SHOULD STAY BELOW FREEZING, AND
PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS AND NW NJ MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE TEENS.
THIS WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN THE WINDY
CONDITIONS, WIND CHILL VALUES ACROSS THE REGION WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN
THE TEENS AT BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN, AND CONSEQUENTLY WINDS DIMINISH, AND CLOUDS
WILL DISSIPATE. AS A RESULT, SHOULD SEE CONSIDERABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS AND WIND CHILL
VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE BOTH THE PROSPECTS FOR THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON CENTERED ON SUNDAY MORNING AND A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP.
THESE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER AN INCH.

BEHIND THE FRONT, IT WILL BE A VERY COLD AND WINDY PERIOD WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE NW FLOW OFF OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE FAVORED REGIONS TO
SEE SNOW SHOWERS ARE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS OF EASTERN PA AND
NW NJ. BUFKIT ANALYSIS YIELDS THE POTENTIAL FOR 30-40 MPH GUSTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE GUST POTENTIAL. THE STRONG CAA WILL NOT ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE MUCH DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. MODELING HAS BEEN HOLDING STEADY ON THE
IDEA THAT 850 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE BELOW -25C. WILL
NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE DEGREE OF THE COLD AIR
BEING MODELED. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS, THOUGH NOT AS STRONG
AS ON SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.
THE COLD AND WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS FROM -10 TO -30 BELOW
ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. PLEASE TO MAKE SURE TO
PREPARE FOR THE COLD WEATHER THAT IS COMING. PREPARATIONS INCLUDE
CHECKING PIPES AND MAKING SURE YOUR VEHICLE IS IN GOOD WORKING
CONDITION. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY NEAR OR
BELOW ZERO AS WELL. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION ON RECORD
POTENTIAL.

PRESIDENTS DAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS
CURRENTLY MODELED TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. THE 00Z 2/11 OPERATIONAL
MODELS HAVE NARROWED THE GOAL POSTS OF POSSIBLE TRACKS FROM
EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THIS ALSO MATCHES OR IS JUST EAST OF THE 12Z
2/10 ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACK. THIS TRACK GOES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
AL/GA NORTHEAST TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINE THEN DUE NORTH UP THE
EAST COAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TWO MAIN FEATURES ARE
PRESENT TO TRACK WITH REGARDS TO MODELS OR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES
CHANGING THE FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IN FUTURE RUNS. THIS
FIRST IS A LEADING SHORTWAVE WHICH MOVES INTO THE THE OHIO VALLEY
ON MONDAY AND THE SECOND IS THE DEGREE OF MID- LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
THAT OCCUR AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WOULD
TEND TO PUSH THE OVERALL TROUGH WITH THIS STORM FURTHER EAST.
WHILE A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER MID- LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES LEADING TO A FURTHER WEST TRACK OF THE LOW. RIGHT NOW THE
FAVORED TRACK WOULD RESULT IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. IT WILL LIKELY BE WINDY AS WELL WITH THE
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NEAR THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY: THE REGION SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AS
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION.
SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AS 2/11 00Z ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER SYSTEM
INTO THE REGION BY THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE
OF A SNOW SHOWER MOVING INTO KPHL, KPNE, KABE, KRDG, OR KTTN
THROUGH 21Z. HOWEVER, COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED, AND TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN. SO CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE BETWEEN 15 AND 00Z. AFTER 00Z, EXPECT WINDS TO
DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY BUT REMAIN WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY: VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 25 KNOTS.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY THEN BECOMING MVFR AND
IFR BY EVENING WITH RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS
SHORTLY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WESTERLY AND
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TIME, WITH GUSTS UP TO
40 KT POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. AN SCA WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE OVER NIGHT HOURS ONCE
THE GALES SUBSIDE.

ALSO OF CONCERN TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE THE FREEZING SPRAY
EXPECTED ON THE BAY AS WELL AS THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. AT THIS
POINT, EXPECT LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY SO HAVE HELD OFF ON AN ADVISORY
AT THIS TIME, BUT OBSERVATIONS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

SEAS AND WINDS WILL START OUT FAIRLY LIGHT ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, A
QUICK RAMP UP IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND
REACH GALE FORCE BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE NEAR GALE FORCE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE FOR GALES ON SATURDAY IS CURRENTLY
HIGH. SEAS MAY REACH FIVE FEET FOR A PERIOD AS WELL ON SATURDAY.
SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE ON SUNDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL LIKELY START INCREASING AGAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN SEVERAL
DEGREES OF ZERO (WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY EXCEPT COLDER KMPO (NEAR -12F). THIS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/ECMWF 2M TEMPS CYCLICALLY SINCE AT LEAST THE
00Z/7 OPERATIONAL CYCLES. THEREFORE, BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD
EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY THE 14TH WOULD BE KABE,
KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

SNOW COVER MAY HELP A BIT I-95 NORTHWESTWARD...AND WE`LL SEE
WHERE WE ARE WITH SNOW COVER BY THURSDAY EVENING. NEW DUSTINGS
APPEAR ON THE WAY THE NEXT 30 HOURS.

SITE     2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR      RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH
----     ----------------------      --------------------

ABE              8                        -1 IN 1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

SO, THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY 30 BELOW IN
THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 111127
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
627 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND THEN
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY, ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY. THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOR A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER DAY, STILL HAVE THREE MAIN STORIES TO
TALK ABOUT FOR THE TODAY PERIOD.

SNOW...AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP ACROSS THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN NJ THROUGH
AT LEAST MID DAY. IN ADDITION, THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME. THESE FACTORS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, OR MAYBE EVEN A FAST
MOVING SNOW SQUALL, ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION. WITH
PERSISTENT DRY AIR ADVECTION, MOISTURE IS LIMITED. SO EVEN THOUGH
SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS COULD BE ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO THE VERY COLD AIR
IN PLACE, STILL EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO REMAIN BELOW ONE INCH.

WINDS...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z BEFORE IT STARTS TO DECREASE AS THE SURFACE LOW
LIFTS FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THUS, EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS POINT THOUGH, WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
(SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 31 MPH FOR AT LEAST ONE HOUR OR GUSTS
OF 46 MPH) ARE NOT ANTICIPATED, SINCE THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE THE MIXING LAYER GETS VERY DEEP.
HAVING SAID THAT THOUGH, THE GFS DOES SHOW THAT THE SUSTAINED
CRITERIA COULD BE REACHED FOR LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO THE DE BAY,
SINCE THE DIRECTION IS A FAVORED DIRECTION FOR THE FUNNELING EFFECT
OVER THE BAY. IN ADDITION, VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW THAT 40 KT WINDS ARE
ABOUT 4000 TO 5000 FT MSL. IF THE MIXING LAYER GETS DEEP ENOUGH,
SOME OF THAT COULD MIX DOWN FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ. FOR NOW THOUGH, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT IT WILL BE
REACHED SO WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

COLD...TODAY BEGINS THE COLD STRETCH WHICH WE ARE EXPECTING TO
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE TODAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE WARMEST
OF THE NEXT 4 DAYS, THE REGION SHOULD STAY BELOW FREEZING, AND
PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS AND NW NJ MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE TEENS.
THIS WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN THE WINDY
CONDITIONS, WIND CHILL VALUES ACROSS THE REGION WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN
THE TEENS AT BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN, AND CONSEQUENTLY WINDS DIMINISH, AND CLOUDS
WILL DISSIPATE. AS A RESULT, SHOULD SEE CONSIDERABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS AND WIND CHILL
VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE BOTH THE PROSPECTS FOR THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON CENTERED ON SUNDAY MORNING AND A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP.
THESE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER AN INCH.

BEHIND THE FRONT, IT WILL BE A VERY COLD AND WINDY PERIOD WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE NW FLOW OFF OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE FAVORED REGIONS TO
SEE SNOW SHOWERS ARE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS OF EASTERN PA AND
NW NJ. BUFKIT ANALYSIS YIELDS THE POTENTIAL FOR 30-40 MPH GUSTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE GUST POTENTIAL. THE STRONG CAA WILL NOT ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE MUCH DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. MODELING HAS BEEN HOLDING STEADY ON THE
IDEA THAT 850 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE BELOW -25C. WILL
NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE DEGREE OF THE COLD AIR
BEING MODELED. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS, THOUGH NOT AS STRONG
AS ON SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.
THE COLD AND WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS FROM -10 TO -30 BELOW
ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. PLEASE TO MAKE SURE TO
PREPARE FOR THE COLD WEATHER THAT IS COMING. PREPARATIONS INCLUDE
CHECKING PIPES AND MAKING SURE YOUR VEHICLE IS IN GOOD WORKING
CONDITION. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY NEAR OR
BELOW ZERO AS WELL. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION ON RECORD
POTENTIAL.

PRESIDENTS DAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS
CURRENTLY MODELED TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. THE 00Z 2/11 OPERATIONAL
MODELS HAVE NARROWED THE GOAL POSTS OF POSSIBLE TRACKS FROM
EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THIS ALSO MATCHES OR IS JUST EAST OF THE 12Z
2/10 ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACK. THIS TRACK GOES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
AL/GA NORTHEAST TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINE THEN DUE NORTH UP THE
EAST COAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TWO MAIN FEATURES ARE
PRESENT TO TRACK WITH REGARDS TO MODELS OR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES
CHANGING THE FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IN FUTURE RUNS. THIS
FIRST IS A LEADING SHORTWAVE WHICH MOVES INTO THE THE OHIO VALLEY
ON MONDAY AND THE SECOND IS THE DEGREE OF MID- LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
THAT OCCUR AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WOULD
TEND TO PUSH THE OVERALL TROUGH WITH THIS STORM FURTHER EAST.
WHILE A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER MID- LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES LEADING TO A FURTHER WEST TRACK OF THE LOW. RIGHT NOW THE
FAVORED TRACK WOULD RESULT IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. IT WILL LIKELY BE WINDY AS WELL WITH THE
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NEAR THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY: THE REGION SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AS
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION.
SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AS 2/11 00Z ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER SYSTEM
INTO THE REGION BY THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE
OF A SNOW SHOWER MOVING INTO KPHL, KPNE, KABE, KRDG, OR KTTN
THROUGH 21Z. HOWEVER, COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED, AND TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN. SO CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE BETWEEN 15 AND 00Z. AFTER 00Z, EXPECT WINDS TO
DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY BUT REMAIN WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY: VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 25 KNOTS.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY THEN BECOMING MVFR AND
IFR BY EVENING WITH RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS
SHORTLY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WESTERLY AND
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TIME, WITH GUSTS UP TO
40 KT POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. AN SCA WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE OVER NIGHT HOURS ONCE
THE GALES SUBSIDE.

ALSO OF CONCERN TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE THE FREEZING SPRAY
EXPECTED ON THE BAY AS WELL AS THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. AT THIS
POINT, EXPECT LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY SO HAVE HELD OFF ON AN ADVISORY
AT THIS TIME, BUT OBSERVATIONS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

SEAS AND WINDS WILL START OUT FAIRLY LIGHT ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, A
QUICK RAMP UP IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND
REACH GALE FORCE BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE NEAR GALE FORCE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE FOR GALES ON SATURDAY IS CURRENTLY
HIGH. SEAS MAY REACH FIVE FEET FOR A PERIOD AS WELL ON SATURDAY.
SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE ON SUNDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL LIKELY START INCREASING AGAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN SEVERAL
DEGREES OF ZERO (WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY EXCEPT COLDER KMPO (NEAR -12F). THIS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/ECMWF 2M TEMPS CYCLICALLY SINCE AT LEAST THE
00Z/7 OPERATIONAL CYCLES. THEREFORE, BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD
EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY THE 14TH WOULD BE KABE,
KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

SNOW COVER MAY HELP A BIT I-95 NORTHWESTWARD...AND WE`LL SEE
WHERE WE ARE WITH SNOW COVER BY THURSDAY EVENING. NEW DUSTINGS
APPEAR ON THE WAY THE NEXT 30 HOURS.

SITE     2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR      RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH
----     ----------------------      --------------------

ABE              8                        -1 IN 1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

SO, THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY 30 BELOW IN
THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 111100
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
600 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA TODAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST FRIDAY MORNING...THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
AND VIRGINIA COASTS AND OUT TO SEA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPR LVL LO PRES WILL LIFT FM THE ERN GRT LKS ENE INTO NRN NEW
ENGLAND DURING TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SFC HI PRES TO BLD IN FM THE
UPR MIDWEST. SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY AND COLD TODAY WITH HI TEMPS
RANGING FM THE LWR TO MID 30S N...TO THE MID TO UPR 30S S. BUT...W
TO NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH...WILL
RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES RANGING FM THE UPR TEENS TO THE UPR
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HI PRES WILL BLD OVR THE REGION TNGT INTO EARLY FRI MORNG...AS
UPR LVL ENERGY DIGS ESE FM THE UPR MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND
THE CAROLINAS. DRY/COLD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TNGT INTO AT LEAST
EARLY FRI MORNG. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WEAK SFC LO PRES ALONG THE SE CST FRI MORNG...WHICH THEN TRACKS
ENE OUT TO SEA FRI AFTN/NGT. 00Z/11 ECMWF REMAINS THE MODEL THAT
KEEPS DEEPEST MOISTURE WITH THAT SYSTEM S OF THE FA. BUT...WILL
CONTINUE TO BLEND THE 00Z/11 NAM/GFS AND CURRENT FCST...WHICH HAS
A PERIOD OF LGT SNOW POSSIBLE ACRS FAR SRN AND SE PORTIONS OF VA
AND ACRS NE NC (STARTING BETWEEN 15-18Z/12). MODEL SOUNDINGS
QUITE DRY BLO 5KFT AND EXPECTING SNOW RATIOS UPWARDS OF 15:1. QPF
ATTM AOB .10" ON AVERAGE. SOME SCT -SN WILL BE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE...AS THE TROF ALOFT SHARPENS INTO THE REGION FM THE
WNW. POPS WILL RANGE FM 40-60% SE...TO 15-25% ELSEWHERE. SNOW
ACCUMS AT THIS TIME ARE FCST TO BE AN INCH OR LESS...WITH THE ONE
INCH AMT CLOSER TO THE ALBEMARLE SND. DUE TO CLOUDS AND A COLD
START...EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LWR TO MID 30S.

VRBL CLUODS/POSSIBLE ISLTD -SNSH FRI EVENG...THEN STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE FA LATE FRI NGT/SAT MORNG...USHERING IN ADDITIONAL
ARCTIC AIR. POTENTIAL FOR BAY/OCEAN INDUCED SNSH...OTHERWISE
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SAT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS (TO 25-30
MPH). HI TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 20S NW TO 30-35F ELSEWHERE
(WIND CHILLS AVERAGING IN THE TEENS TO LWR 20S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG CAA WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT...AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. 850MB TEMPERATURES PLUMMET TO AROUND -20 TO
- 22C ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIRMASS SO
FAR THIS WINTER...AND IT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE
2015- 16 WINTER LOCALLY BASED ON THE FACT THAT IT WILL BE MID-
FEBRUARY AND THE 8-14 DAY CPC OUTLOOK INDICATES ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATER PORTION OF THE MONTH. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
WITH MID TEENS SE. A NW WIND (STRONGEST E) WILL DROP WIND CHILLS
BELOW 0F FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST
WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY. THE HIGH BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
LOW 20S NE...TO MID/UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY
SKY...ALTHOUGH BAY STREAMERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ATTENTION
TURNING TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. THERE
IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS. HOWEVER...A
TROUGH DOES DIG ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE COLD
AIR WILL SHALLOW AND RETREAT DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT WILL LIKELY
BE STUBBORN TO RETREAT TOO FAST. THE AMOUNT OF WINTRY PCPN WILL
DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK...WITH THE 10/12Z GFS/CMC SHOWING A
COLDER MORE SRN AND OFFSHORE TRACK...WITH TH3 10/12Z ECMWF
DEPICTING AN INLAND AND WARMER TRACK. DRYING OCCURS MIDWEEK IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE CLIPPING THE
AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRS BUILDS IN FROM THE W RESULTING IN MAINLY SKC. SCT "BAY
STREAMER" SC ARE PSBL. TIGHT PRS GRDNT FROM THE HIGH RESULTS IN
BREEZY CNDTNS WITH W WNDS BTWN 15-25 KTS THRU 22Z. WNDS QUICKLY
DMNSH BY SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW MAINLY ORF/ECG
AREA LATE FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH GUSTY NW WINDS RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST BY MONDAY MORNING.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW MONDAY AS SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH WINDS BRING A WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
STRNG SCA`S REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA DUE TO
MODEST CAA FROM A TIGHT PRS GRDNT BTWN DEPARTING S/W AND BLDG SFC
HIGH TO THE W. CAPPED WIND GUSTS AT 30 KTS. ADDED LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY OVER THE CHES BAY AND COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING GIVEN TMPS
AOB 30 DEGREES COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS. SEAS 4-5 FT GIVEN THE
OFFSHORE FLOW...HIGHEST OUT NR 20 NM. WNDS / WAVES / SEAS DMNSH THIS
EVE SO HAVE HEADLINES ENDG BTWN 23-06Z.

HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE FRI AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD BRING SOME REDUCED
VSBY IN SN FOR THE SRN COASTAL ZONES.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES THE COAST SATURDAY...WITH
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONG
CAA IS EXPECTED WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE NE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NW. GALE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY (GUSTS BTWN 35-40 KTS)...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE BAY AND OCEAN. ADDED FREEZING SPRAY SAT NIGHT TO THE CHES
BAY AND CSTL WTRS AS TMPS FCSTD TO PLUMMENT THRU THE 20S AND INTO
THE TEENS. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE
LEVEL FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LAST NITE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE WNW FLOW WILL ALLOW ANOMALIES TO FURTHER FALL. STRONG NW FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE BLOW-OUT TIDES
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ634-650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR
HYDROLOGY...MPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MPR



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 111100
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
600 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA TODAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST FRIDAY MORNING...THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
AND VIRGINIA COASTS AND OUT TO SEA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPR LVL LO PRES WILL LIFT FM THE ERN GRT LKS ENE INTO NRN NEW
ENGLAND DURING TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SFC HI PRES TO BLD IN FM THE
UPR MIDWEST. SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY AND COLD TODAY WITH HI TEMPS
RANGING FM THE LWR TO MID 30S N...TO THE MID TO UPR 30S S. BUT...W
TO NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH...WILL
RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES RANGING FM THE UPR TEENS TO THE UPR
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HI PRES WILL BLD OVR THE REGION TNGT INTO EARLY FRI MORNG...AS
UPR LVL ENERGY DIGS ESE FM THE UPR MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND
THE CAROLINAS. DRY/COLD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TNGT INTO AT LEAST
EARLY FRI MORNG. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WEAK SFC LO PRES ALONG THE SE CST FRI MORNG...WHICH THEN TRACKS
ENE OUT TO SEA FRI AFTN/NGT. 00Z/11 ECMWF REMAINS THE MODEL THAT
KEEPS DEEPEST MOISTURE WITH THAT SYSTEM S OF THE FA. BUT...WILL
CONTINUE TO BLEND THE 00Z/11 NAM/GFS AND CURRENT FCST...WHICH HAS
A PERIOD OF LGT SNOW POSSIBLE ACRS FAR SRN AND SE PORTIONS OF VA
AND ACRS NE NC (STARTING BETWEEN 15-18Z/12). MODEL SOUNDINGS
QUITE DRY BLO 5KFT AND EXPECTING SNOW RATIOS UPWARDS OF 15:1. QPF
ATTM AOB .10" ON AVERAGE. SOME SCT -SN WILL BE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE...AS THE TROF ALOFT SHARPENS INTO THE REGION FM THE
WNW. POPS WILL RANGE FM 40-60% SE...TO 15-25% ELSEWHERE. SNOW
ACCUMS AT THIS TIME ARE FCST TO BE AN INCH OR LESS...WITH THE ONE
INCH AMT CLOSER TO THE ALBEMARLE SND. DUE TO CLOUDS AND A COLD
START...EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LWR TO MID 30S.

VRBL CLUODS/POSSIBLE ISLTD -SNSH FRI EVENG...THEN STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE FA LATE FRI NGT/SAT MORNG...USHERING IN ADDITIONAL
ARCTIC AIR. POTENTIAL FOR BAY/OCEAN INDUCED SNSH...OTHERWISE
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SAT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS (TO 25-30
MPH). HI TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 20S NW TO 30-35F ELSEWHERE
(WIND CHILLS AVERAGING IN THE TEENS TO LWR 20S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG CAA WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT...AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. 850MB TEMPERATURES PLUMMET TO AROUND -20 TO
- 22C ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIRMASS SO
FAR THIS WINTER...AND IT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE
2015- 16 WINTER LOCALLY BASED ON THE FACT THAT IT WILL BE MID-
FEBRUARY AND THE 8-14 DAY CPC OUTLOOK INDICATES ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATER PORTION OF THE MONTH. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
WITH MID TEENS SE. A NW WIND (STRONGEST E) WILL DROP WIND CHILLS
BELOW 0F FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST
WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY. THE HIGH BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
LOW 20S NE...TO MID/UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY
SKY...ALTHOUGH BAY STREAMERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ATTENTION
TURNING TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. THERE
IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS. HOWEVER...A
TROUGH DOES DIG ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE COLD
AIR WILL SHALLOW AND RETREAT DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT WILL LIKELY
BE STUBBORN TO RETREAT TOO FAST. THE AMOUNT OF WINTRY PCPN WILL
DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK...WITH THE 10/12Z GFS/CMC SHOWING A
COLDER MORE SRN AND OFFSHORE TRACK...WITH TH3 10/12Z ECMWF
DEPICTING AN INLAND AND WARMER TRACK. DRYING OCCURS MIDWEEK IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE CLIPPING THE
AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRS BUILDS IN FROM THE W RESULTING IN MAINLY SKC. SCT "BAY
STREAMER" SC ARE PSBL. TIGHT PRS GRDNT FROM THE HIGH RESULTS IN
BREEZY CNDTNS WITH W WNDS BTWN 15-25 KTS THRU 22Z. WNDS QUICKLY
DMNSH BY SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW MAINLY ORF/ECG
AREA LATE FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH GUSTY NW WINDS RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST BY MONDAY MORNING.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW MONDAY AS SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH WINDS BRING A WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
STRNG SCA`S REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA DUE TO
MODEST CAA FROM A TIGHT PRS GRDNT BTWN DEPARTING S/W AND BLDG SFC
HIGH TO THE W. CAPPED WIND GUSTS AT 30 KTS. ADDED LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY OVER THE CHES BAY AND COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING GIVEN TMPS
AOB 30 DEGREES COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS. SEAS 4-5 FT GIVEN THE
OFFSHORE FLOW...HIGHEST OUT NR 20 NM. WNDS / WAVES / SEAS DMNSH THIS
EVE SO HAVE HEADLINES ENDG BTWN 23-06Z.

HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE FRI AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD BRING SOME REDUCED
VSBY IN SN FOR THE SRN COASTAL ZONES.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES THE COAST SATURDAY...WITH
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONG
CAA IS EXPECTED WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE NE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NW. GALE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY (GUSTS BTWN 35-40 KTS)...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE BAY AND OCEAN. ADDED FREEZING SPRAY SAT NIGHT TO THE CHES
BAY AND CSTL WTRS AS TMPS FCSTD TO PLUMMENT THRU THE 20S AND INTO
THE TEENS. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE
LEVEL FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LAST NITE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE WNW FLOW WILL ALLOW ANOMALIES TO FURTHER FALL. STRONG NW FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE BLOW-OUT TIDES
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ634-650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR
HYDROLOGY...MPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MPR




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 111100
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
600 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA TODAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST FRIDAY MORNING...THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
AND VIRGINIA COASTS AND OUT TO SEA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPR LVL LO PRES WILL LIFT FM THE ERN GRT LKS ENE INTO NRN NEW
ENGLAND DURING TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SFC HI PRES TO BLD IN FM THE
UPR MIDWEST. SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY AND COLD TODAY WITH HI TEMPS
RANGING FM THE LWR TO MID 30S N...TO THE MID TO UPR 30S S. BUT...W
TO NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH...WILL
RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES RANGING FM THE UPR TEENS TO THE UPR
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HI PRES WILL BLD OVR THE REGION TNGT INTO EARLY FRI MORNG...AS
UPR LVL ENERGY DIGS ESE FM THE UPR MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND
THE CAROLINAS. DRY/COLD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TNGT INTO AT LEAST
EARLY FRI MORNG. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WEAK SFC LO PRES ALONG THE SE CST FRI MORNG...WHICH THEN TRACKS
ENE OUT TO SEA FRI AFTN/NGT. 00Z/11 ECMWF REMAINS THE MODEL THAT
KEEPS DEEPEST MOISTURE WITH THAT SYSTEM S OF THE FA. BUT...WILL
CONTINUE TO BLEND THE 00Z/11 NAM/GFS AND CURRENT FCST...WHICH HAS
A PERIOD OF LGT SNOW POSSIBLE ACRS FAR SRN AND SE PORTIONS OF VA
AND ACRS NE NC (STARTING BETWEEN 15-18Z/12). MODEL SOUNDINGS
QUITE DRY BLO 5KFT AND EXPECTING SNOW RATIOS UPWARDS OF 15:1. QPF
ATTM AOB .10" ON AVERAGE. SOME SCT -SN WILL BE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE...AS THE TROF ALOFT SHARPENS INTO THE REGION FM THE
WNW. POPS WILL RANGE FM 40-60% SE...TO 15-25% ELSEWHERE. SNOW
ACCUMS AT THIS TIME ARE FCST TO BE AN INCH OR LESS...WITH THE ONE
INCH AMT CLOSER TO THE ALBEMARLE SND. DUE TO CLOUDS AND A COLD
START...EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LWR TO MID 30S.

VRBL CLUODS/POSSIBLE ISLTD -SNSH FRI EVENG...THEN STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE FA LATE FRI NGT/SAT MORNG...USHERING IN ADDITIONAL
ARCTIC AIR. POTENTIAL FOR BAY/OCEAN INDUCED SNSH...OTHERWISE
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SAT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS (TO 25-30
MPH). HI TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 20S NW TO 30-35F ELSEWHERE
(WIND CHILLS AVERAGING IN THE TEENS TO LWR 20S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG CAA WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT...AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. 850MB TEMPERATURES PLUMMET TO AROUND -20 TO
- 22C ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIRMASS SO
FAR THIS WINTER...AND IT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE
2015- 16 WINTER LOCALLY BASED ON THE FACT THAT IT WILL BE MID-
FEBRUARY AND THE 8-14 DAY CPC OUTLOOK INDICATES ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATER PORTION OF THE MONTH. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
WITH MID TEENS SE. A NW WIND (STRONGEST E) WILL DROP WIND CHILLS
BELOW 0F FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST
WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY. THE HIGH BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
LOW 20S NE...TO MID/UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY
SKY...ALTHOUGH BAY STREAMERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ATTENTION
TURNING TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. THERE
IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS. HOWEVER...A
TROUGH DOES DIG ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE COLD
AIR WILL SHALLOW AND RETREAT DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT WILL LIKELY
BE STUBBORN TO RETREAT TOO FAST. THE AMOUNT OF WINTRY PCPN WILL
DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK...WITH THE 10/12Z GFS/CMC SHOWING A
COLDER MORE SRN AND OFFSHORE TRACK...WITH TH3 10/12Z ECMWF
DEPICTING AN INLAND AND WARMER TRACK. DRYING OCCURS MIDWEEK IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE CLIPPING THE
AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRS BUILDS IN FROM THE W RESULTING IN MAINLY SKC. SCT "BAY
STREAMER" SC ARE PSBL. TIGHT PRS GRDNT FROM THE HIGH RESULTS IN
BREEZY CNDTNS WITH W WNDS BTWN 15-25 KTS THRU 22Z. WNDS QUICKLY
DMNSH BY SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW MAINLY ORF/ECG
AREA LATE FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH GUSTY NW WINDS RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST BY MONDAY MORNING.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW MONDAY AS SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH WINDS BRING A WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
STRNG SCA`S REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA DUE TO
MODEST CAA FROM A TIGHT PRS GRDNT BTWN DEPARTING S/W AND BLDG SFC
HIGH TO THE W. CAPPED WIND GUSTS AT 30 KTS. ADDED LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY OVER THE CHES BAY AND COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING GIVEN TMPS
AOB 30 DEGREES COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS. SEAS 4-5 FT GIVEN THE
OFFSHORE FLOW...HIGHEST OUT NR 20 NM. WNDS / WAVES / SEAS DMNSH THIS
EVE SO HAVE HEADLINES ENDG BTWN 23-06Z.

HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE FRI AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD BRING SOME REDUCED
VSBY IN SN FOR THE SRN COASTAL ZONES.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES THE COAST SATURDAY...WITH
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONG
CAA IS EXPECTED WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE NE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NW. GALE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY (GUSTS BTWN 35-40 KTS)...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE BAY AND OCEAN. ADDED FREEZING SPRAY SAT NIGHT TO THE CHES
BAY AND CSTL WTRS AS TMPS FCSTD TO PLUMMENT THRU THE 20S AND INTO
THE TEENS. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE
LEVEL FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LAST NITE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE WNW FLOW WILL ALLOW ANOMALIES TO FURTHER FALL. STRONG NW FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE BLOW-OUT TIDES
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ634-650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR
HYDROLOGY...MPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MPR




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 111021
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
521 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE WEEK WITH BITTER COLD TO START THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UNSTABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS BEGUN TO BE OVERCOME BY DRY
CANADIAN AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE PREVIOUS
SNOW SQUALL ACTIVITY THAT WAS LARGELY SITUATED ALONG A LOW LEVEL
DEFORMATION AXIS HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED AND BECOME MORE CELLULAR
AS FLOW HAS BECOME MORE UNI-DIRECATIONAL EARLY THIS MORNING. GOING
FORWARD...THE ONLY PLACE WHERE THIS MAY NOT ENTIRELY BE THE CASE
OUTSIDE THE RIDGES IS IN FOREST AND VENANGO COUNTIES. HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BANDING FROM LAKE HURON WILL TREND
SOUTHWARD LATE THIS MORNING. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A MULTI-LAKE
FETCH TO BRING SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKE HURON...ACROSS LAKE
ERIE...AND INTO THE FAR NORTHEASTERN REACHES OF THE CWA. THUS POPS
AND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED HERE TO
ASCERTAIN WHETHER THIS DEVELOPMENT DOES OCCUR.

IN THE RIDGES...VISIBILITIES HAVE CONTINUED TO GENERALLY BE
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 MILES THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY THIS
MORNING. A PERIOD OF A ENHANCED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
LIKELY AS FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST...HOWEVER WEAKENING
SATURATION WILL MEAN LESS EFFICIENT SNOW GENERATION BY AFTERNOON.
THUS A FEW MORE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE RIDGES...HOWEVER
TRENDS BY AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO TAPER
OFF.

ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE PRESENT...HOWEVER
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT/LOCAL AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
AREA. IN FACT...GOING INTO THE NIGHTTIME TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW
STARTS TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AND TURN A BIT TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS WILL LIKELY ERADICATE BOUNDARY LAYER RH VALUES...AND ALLOW
FOR DECENT TEMPERATURE FALLS. THEY WILL LIKELY BE TEMPERED BY
MORNING AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE...HOWEVER SINGLE DIGITS
WILL LIKELY STILL BE COMMON WITH WIND CHILLS INCREMENTALLY BELOW
ZERO. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY BEGINS DRY AND COLD AS HIGH PRESSURE TEMPORARILY CUTS OFF
THE SNOW PRODUCTION. DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPS THE DOOR TO
COLDER AIR WIDE OPEN...SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
AVERAGE.

MULTIPLE UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL SLIDE OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...PASSING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE PINWHEELING VORTEX IN
CANADA. THE FIRST WEAKER WAVE WILL DIVE TO OUR SOUTH ON THE FRONT
OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK. THIS WILL BRING LITTLE MORE THAN
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
MIDDAY FRIDAY. A MORE POTENT WAVE WILL THEN DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES...RE-INVIGORATING SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SQUALLS AGAIN LOOK
POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT. LARGELY LEFT SNOW
TOTALS INTACT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH LOOKS TO BE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED MODERATE SNOW BANDS...WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
IN THE BASE OF THE LOW. SUSTAINED WINDS GREATER THAN 10KTS...AND
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY SATURDAY MORNING WILL
LIKELY NECESSITATE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AT LEAST FOR THE RIDGES
AND ALONG THE NORTH.

SNOW SHOULD TAPER DOWN ACROSS THE WEST SATURDAY MORNING AS THE
AXIS OF THE TROUGH SHIFTS TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER...WITH VERY COLD
AIR PASSING OVER THE STILL UNFROZEN WATERS OF THE GREAT
LAKES...ADDITIONAL LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWING NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP AN AREA OF
CONVERGENCE DOWN WIND OF LAKE ERIE. WITH A FAVORABLE HURON-TO-
ERIE CONNECTION...LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS
OUR NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LEFT SNOW TOTALS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY BROAD AND ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH HOPES FUTURE
MODEL RUNS WILL BETTER RESOLVE THE SNOW BAND LOCATION.

THE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE BARRAGE OF ARCTIC
AIR INTO OUR REGION SATURDAY...WITH A LOW CELLING FOR HIGH TEMPS
EXPECTED. MANY LOCATIONS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS
ALL DAY SATURDAY. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL AGAIN BE LIKELY
HEADING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...EVEN AS THE WINDS
SLACKEN.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BEGIN DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN MAKE A
TEMPORARY VISIT TO THE REGION. MODELS STILL HAVING SOME
DIFFICULTY WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING IN SUNDAY NIGHT.
TIMING IS NOW FAIRLY CONSISTENT ACROSS THE GUIDANCE...BUT THE
ECMWF QUICKLY WEAKENS THE WAVE UPON ARRIVAL. STILL...EXPECTING
AT LEAST A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY.

MODELS NOW SHOW ANOTHER DEEPER WAVE IN THE WAKE OF THE MONDAY
SYSTEM. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK INTO
THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY. WILL
NEED SEVERAL MORE MODEL CYCLE TO SORT OUT THOSE DETAILS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW SQUALLS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BETWEEN KBVI AND KFKL THROUGH THE
MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. LOCAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
MOST SITES...HOWEVER NO HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD AFFECT ANY
SITE. CIGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY AT MOST SITES BY TONIGHT

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER
COLD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING. WHILE THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ008-
     009-074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ510>514.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 111021
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
521 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE WEEK WITH BITTER COLD TO START THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UNSTABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS BEGUN TO BE OVERCOME BY DRY
CANADIAN AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE PREVIOUS
SNOW SQUALL ACTIVITY THAT WAS LARGELY SITUATED ALONG A LOW LEVEL
DEFORMATION AXIS HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED AND BECOME MORE CELLULAR
AS FLOW HAS BECOME MORE UNI-DIRECATIONAL EARLY THIS MORNING. GOING
FORWARD...THE ONLY PLACE WHERE THIS MAY NOT ENTIRELY BE THE CASE
OUTSIDE THE RIDGES IS IN FOREST AND VENANGO COUNTIES. HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BANDING FROM LAKE HURON WILL TREND
SOUTHWARD LATE THIS MORNING. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A MULTI-LAKE
FETCH TO BRING SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKE HURON...ACROSS LAKE
ERIE...AND INTO THE FAR NORTHEASTERN REACHES OF THE CWA. THUS POPS
AND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED HERE TO
ASCERTAIN WHETHER THIS DEVELOPMENT DOES OCCUR.

IN THE RIDGES...VISIBILITIES HAVE CONTINUED TO GENERALLY BE
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 MILES THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY THIS
MORNING. A PERIOD OF A ENHANCED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
LIKELY AS FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST...HOWEVER WEAKENING
SATURATION WILL MEAN LESS EFFICIENT SNOW GENERATION BY AFTERNOON.
THUS A FEW MORE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE RIDGES...HOWEVER
TRENDS BY AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO TAPER
OFF.

ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE PRESENT...HOWEVER
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT/LOCAL AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
AREA. IN FACT...GOING INTO THE NIGHTTIME TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW
STARTS TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AND TURN A BIT TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS WILL LIKELY ERADICATE BOUNDARY LAYER RH VALUES...AND ALLOW
FOR DECENT TEMPERATURE FALLS. THEY WILL LIKELY BE TEMPERED BY
MORNING AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE...HOWEVER SINGLE DIGITS
WILL LIKELY STILL BE COMMON WITH WIND CHILLS INCREMENTALLY BELOW
ZERO. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY BEGINS DRY AND COLD AS HIGH PRESSURE TEMPORARILY CUTS OFF
THE SNOW PRODUCTION. DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPS THE DOOR TO
COLDER AIR WIDE OPEN...SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
AVERAGE.

MULTIPLE UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL SLIDE OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...PASSING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE PINWHEELING VORTEX IN
CANADA. THE FIRST WEAKER WAVE WILL DIVE TO OUR SOUTH ON THE FRONT
OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK. THIS WILL BRING LITTLE MORE THAN
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
MIDDAY FRIDAY. A MORE POTENT WAVE WILL THEN DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES...RE-INVIGORATING SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SQUALLS AGAIN LOOK
POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT. LARGELY LEFT SNOW
TOTALS INTACT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH LOOKS TO BE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED MODERATE SNOW BANDS...WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
IN THE BASE OF THE LOW. SUSTAINED WINDS GREATER THAN 10KTS...AND
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY SATURDAY MORNING WILL
LIKELY NECESSITATE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AT LEAST FOR THE RIDGES
AND ALONG THE NORTH.

SNOW SHOULD TAPER DOWN ACROSS THE WEST SATURDAY MORNING AS THE
AXIS OF THE TROUGH SHIFTS TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER...WITH VERY COLD
AIR PASSING OVER THE STILL UNFROZEN WATERS OF THE GREAT
LAKES...ADDITIONAL LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWING NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP AN AREA OF
CONVERGENCE DOWN WIND OF LAKE ERIE. WITH A FAVORABLE HURON-TO-
ERIE CONNECTION...LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS
OUR NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LEFT SNOW TOTALS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY BROAD AND ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH HOPES FUTURE
MODEL RUNS WILL BETTER RESOLVE THE SNOW BAND LOCATION.

THE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE BARRAGE OF ARCTIC
AIR INTO OUR REGION SATURDAY...WITH A LOW CELLING FOR HIGH TEMPS
EXPECTED. MANY LOCATIONS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS
ALL DAY SATURDAY. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL AGAIN BE LIKELY
HEADING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...EVEN AS THE WINDS
SLACKEN.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BEGIN DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN MAKE A
TEMPORARY VISIT TO THE REGION. MODELS STILL HAVING SOME
DIFFICULTY WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING IN SUNDAY NIGHT.
TIMING IS NOW FAIRLY CONSISTENT ACROSS THE GUIDANCE...BUT THE
ECMWF QUICKLY WEAKENS THE WAVE UPON ARRIVAL. STILL...EXPECTING
AT LEAST A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY.

MODELS NOW SHOW ANOTHER DEEPER WAVE IN THE WAKE OF THE MONDAY
SYSTEM. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK INTO
THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY. WILL
NEED SEVERAL MORE MODEL CYCLE TO SORT OUT THOSE DETAILS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW SQUALLS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BETWEEN KBVI AND KFKL THROUGH THE
MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. LOCAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
MOST SITES...HOWEVER NO HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD AFFECT ANY
SITE. CIGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY AT MOST SITES BY TONIGHT

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER
COLD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING. WHILE THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ008-
     009-074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ510>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 111021
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
521 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE WEEK WITH BITTER COLD TO START THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UNSTABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS BEGUN TO BE OVERCOME BY DRY
CANADIAN AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE PREVIOUS
SNOW SQUALL ACTIVITY THAT WAS LARGELY SITUATED ALONG A LOW LEVEL
DEFORMATION AXIS HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED AND BECOME MORE CELLULAR
AS FLOW HAS BECOME MORE UNI-DIRECATIONAL EARLY THIS MORNING. GOING
FORWARD...THE ONLY PLACE WHERE THIS MAY NOT ENTIRELY BE THE CASE
OUTSIDE THE RIDGES IS IN FOREST AND VENANGO COUNTIES. HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BANDING FROM LAKE HURON WILL TREND
SOUTHWARD LATE THIS MORNING. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A MULTI-LAKE
FETCH TO BRING SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKE HURON...ACROSS LAKE
ERIE...AND INTO THE FAR NORTHEASTERN REACHES OF THE CWA. THUS POPS
AND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED HERE TO
ASCERTAIN WHETHER THIS DEVELOPMENT DOES OCCUR.

IN THE RIDGES...VISIBILITIES HAVE CONTINUED TO GENERALLY BE
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 MILES THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY THIS
MORNING. A PERIOD OF A ENHANCED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
LIKELY AS FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST...HOWEVER WEAKENING
SATURATION WILL MEAN LESS EFFICIENT SNOW GENERATION BY AFTERNOON.
THUS A FEW MORE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE RIDGES...HOWEVER
TRENDS BY AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO TAPER
OFF.

ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE PRESENT...HOWEVER
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT/LOCAL AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
AREA. IN FACT...GOING INTO THE NIGHTTIME TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW
STARTS TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AND TURN A BIT TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS WILL LIKELY ERADICATE BOUNDARY LAYER RH VALUES...AND ALLOW
FOR DECENT TEMPERATURE FALLS. THEY WILL LIKELY BE TEMPERED BY
MORNING AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE...HOWEVER SINGLE DIGITS
WILL LIKELY STILL BE COMMON WITH WIND CHILLS INCREMENTALLY BELOW
ZERO. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY BEGINS DRY AND COLD AS HIGH PRESSURE TEMPORARILY CUTS OFF
THE SNOW PRODUCTION. DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPS THE DOOR TO
COLDER AIR WIDE OPEN...SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
AVERAGE.

MULTIPLE UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL SLIDE OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...PASSING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE PINWHEELING VORTEX IN
CANADA. THE FIRST WEAKER WAVE WILL DIVE TO OUR SOUTH ON THE FRONT
OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK. THIS WILL BRING LITTLE MORE THAN
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
MIDDAY FRIDAY. A MORE POTENT WAVE WILL THEN DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES...RE-INVIGORATING SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SQUALLS AGAIN LOOK
POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT. LARGELY LEFT SNOW
TOTALS INTACT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH LOOKS TO BE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED MODERATE SNOW BANDS...WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
IN THE BASE OF THE LOW. SUSTAINED WINDS GREATER THAN 10KTS...AND
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY SATURDAY MORNING WILL
LIKELY NECESSITATE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AT LEAST FOR THE RIDGES
AND ALONG THE NORTH.

SNOW SHOULD TAPER DOWN ACROSS THE WEST SATURDAY MORNING AS THE
AXIS OF THE TROUGH SHIFTS TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER...WITH VERY COLD
AIR PASSING OVER THE STILL UNFROZEN WATERS OF THE GREAT
LAKES...ADDITIONAL LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWING NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP AN AREA OF
CONVERGENCE DOWN WIND OF LAKE ERIE. WITH A FAVORABLE HURON-TO-
ERIE CONNECTION...LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS
OUR NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LEFT SNOW TOTALS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY BROAD AND ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH HOPES FUTURE
MODEL RUNS WILL BETTER RESOLVE THE SNOW BAND LOCATION.

THE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE BARRAGE OF ARCTIC
AIR INTO OUR REGION SATURDAY...WITH A LOW CELLING FOR HIGH TEMPS
EXPECTED. MANY LOCATIONS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS
ALL DAY SATURDAY. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL AGAIN BE LIKELY
HEADING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...EVEN AS THE WINDS
SLACKEN.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BEGIN DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN MAKE A
TEMPORARY VISIT TO THE REGION. MODELS STILL HAVING SOME
DIFFICULTY WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING IN SUNDAY NIGHT.
TIMING IS NOW FAIRLY CONSISTENT ACROSS THE GUIDANCE...BUT THE
ECMWF QUICKLY WEAKENS THE WAVE UPON ARRIVAL. STILL...EXPECTING
AT LEAST A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY.

MODELS NOW SHOW ANOTHER DEEPER WAVE IN THE WAKE OF THE MONDAY
SYSTEM. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK INTO
THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY. WILL
NEED SEVERAL MORE MODEL CYCLE TO SORT OUT THOSE DETAILS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW SQUALLS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BETWEEN KBVI AND KFKL THROUGH THE
MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. LOCAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
MOST SITES...HOWEVER NO HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD AFFECT ANY
SITE. CIGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY AT MOST SITES BY TONIGHT

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER
COLD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING. WHILE THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ008-
     009-074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ510>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 110935
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
435 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE WEEK WITH BITTER COLD TO START THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN AXIS OF LOW LEVEL DEFORMATION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY EDGE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN REACHES OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. GIVEN THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH THERMAL LAYER AND SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY IS
PRESENT...THIS AXIS OF DEFORMATION IS SUMMARILY CO-LOCATED WITH A
BAND OF SNOW SQUALLS THAT HAS PLAGUED THE AREA JUST SOUTH OF I-80
TOWARD THE TURNPIKE VIRTUALLY ALL NIGHT. AS THE MORNING
ENSUES...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THIS LAYER SHOULD START TO
SUBSIDE...AS FLOW TURNS MORE UNI-DIRECTIONALLY FROM THE
NORTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR FAR LESS DOMINANT BANDING ALONG
THIS AXIS...THUS ALLOWING FOR THE SQUALLS TO DIMINISH.
HOWEVER...IN THE INTERIM...A FEW MORE INCHES OF LOCAL ACCUMULATION
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG HIGHWAY 422.

ELSEWHERE...UNSTABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BE OVERCOME
BY DRY CANADIAN AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE ONLY
PLACE WHERE THIS MAY NOT ENTIRELY BE THE CASE IS IN FOREST AND
VENANGO COUNTIES. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BANDING FROM
LAKE HURON WILL TREND SOUTHWARD LATE THIS MORNING. THIS WOULD
ALLOW FOR A MULTI-LAKE FETCH TO BRING SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKE
HURON...ACROSS LAKE ERIE...AND INTO THE FAR NORTHEASTERN REACHES
OF THE CWA. THUS POPS AND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE MAINTAINED HERE TO ASCERTAIN WHETHER THIS DEVELOPMENT DOES
OCCUR.

IN THE RIDGES...VISIBILITIES HAVE CONTINUED TO GENERALLY BE
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 MILES THROUGH THE NIGHT. A PERIOD OF A ENHANCED
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LIKELY AS FLOW TURNS TO THE
NORTHWEST...HOWEVER WEAKENING SATURATION WILL MEAN LESS EFFICIENT
SNOW GENERATION BY AFTERNOON. THUS A FEW MORE INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE RIDGES...HOWEVER TRENDS BY AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF.

ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE PRESENT...HOWEVER
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT/LOCAL AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
AREA. IN FACT...GOING INTO THE NIGHTTIME TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW
STARTS TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AND TURN A BIT TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS WILL LIKELY ERADICATE BOUNDARY LAYER RH VALUES...AND ALLOW
FOR DECENT TEMPERATURE FALLS. THEY WILL LIKELY BE TEMPERED BY
MORNING AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE...HOWEVER SINGLE DIGITS
WILL LIKELY STILL BE COMMON WITH WIND CHILLS INCREMENTALLY BELOW
ZERO. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY BEGINS DRY AND COLD AS HIGH PRESSURE TEMPORARILY CUTS OFF
THE SNOW PRODUCTION. DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPS THE DOOR TO
COLDER AIR WIDE OPEN...SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
AVERAGE.

MULTIPLE UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL SLIDE OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...PASSING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE PINWHEELING VORTEX IN
CANADA. THE FIRST WEAKER WAVE WILL DIVE TO OUR SOUTH ON THE FRONT
OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK. THIS WILL BRING LITTLE MORE THAN
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
MIDDAY FRIDAY. A MORE POTENT WAVE WILL THEN DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES...RE-INVIGORATING SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SQUALLS AGAIN LOOK
POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT. LARGELY LEFT SNOW
TOTALS INTACT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH LOOKS TO BE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED MODERATE SNOW BANDS...WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
IN THE BASE OF THE LOW. SUSTAINED WINDS GREATER THAN 10KTS...AND
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY SATURDAY MORNING WILL
LIKELY NECESSITATE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AT LEAST FOR THE RIDGES
AND ALONG THE NORTH.

SNOW SHOULD TAPER DOWN ACROSS THE WEST SATURDAY MORNING AS THE
AXIS OF THE TROUGH SHIFTS TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER...WITH VERY COLD
AIR PASSING OVER THE STILL UNFROZEN WATERS OF THE GREAT
LAKES...ADDITIONAL LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWING NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP AN AREA OF
CONVERGENCE DOWN WIND OF LAKE ERIE. WITH A FAVORABLE HURON-TO-
ERIE CONNECTION...LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS
OUR NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LEFT SNOW TOTALS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY BROAD AND ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH HOPES FUTURE
MODEL RUNS WILL BETTER RESOLVE THE SNOW BAND LOCATION.

THE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE BARRAGE OF ARCTIC
AIR INTO OUR REGION SATURDAY...WITH A LOW CELLING FOR HIGH TEMPS
EXPECTED. MANY LOCATIONS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS
ALL DAY SATURDAY. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL AGAIN BE LIKELY
HEADING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...EVEN AS THE WINDS
SLACKEN.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BEGIN DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN MAKE A
TEMPORARY VISIT TO THE REGION. MODELS STILL HAVING SOME
DIFFICULTY WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING IN SUNDAY NIGHT.
TIMING IS NOW FAIRLY CONSISTENT ACROSS THE GUIDANCE...BUT THE
ECMWF QUICKLY WEAKENS THE WAVE UPON ARRIVAL. STILL...EXPECTING
AT LEAST A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY.

MODELS NOW SHOW ANOTHER DEEPER WAVE IN THE WAKE OF THE MONDAY
SYSTEM. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK INTO
THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY. WILL
NEED SEVERAL MORE MODEL CYCLE TO SORT OUT THOSE DETAILS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TAX


&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW SQUALLS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BETWEEN KBVI AND KFKL THROUGH THE
MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. LOCAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
MOST SITES...HOWEVER NO HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD AFFECT ANY
SITE. CIGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY AT MOST SITES BY TONIGHT

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER
COLD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING. WHILE THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ013-
     014-016-022-023.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ007>009-015-074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ510>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 110925
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
425 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA TODAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST FRIDAY MORNING...THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
AND VIRGINIA COASTS AND OUT TO SEA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPR LVL LO PRES WILL LIFT FM THE ERN GRT LKS ENE INTO NRN NEW
ENGLAND DURING TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SFC HI PRES TO BLD IN FM THE
UPR MIDWEST. SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY AND COLD TODAY WITH HI TEMPS
RANGING FM THE LWR TO MID 30S N...TO THE MID TO UPR 30S S. BUT...W
TO NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH...WILL
RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES RANGING FM THE UPR TEENS TO THE UPR
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HI PRES WILL BLD OVR THE REGION TNGT INTO EARLY FRI MORNG...AS
UPR LVL ENERGY DIGS ESE FM THE UPR MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND
THE CAROLINAS. DRY/COLD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TNGT INTO AT LEAST
EARLY FRI MORNG. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WEAK SFC LO PRES ALONG THE SE CST FRI MORNG...WHICH THEN TRACKS
ENE OUT TO SEA FRI AFTN/NGT. 00Z/11 ECMWF REMAINS THE MODEL THAT
KEEPS DEEPEST MOISTURE WITH THAT SYSTEM S OF THE FA. BUT...WILL
CONTINUE TO BLEND THE 00Z/11 NAM/GFS AND CURRENT FCST...WHICH HAS
A PERIOD OF LGT SNOW POSSIBLE ACRS FAR SRN AND SE PORTIONS OF VA
AND ACRS NE NC (STARTING BETWEEN 15-18Z/12). MODEL SOUNDINGS
QUITE DRY BLO 5KFT AND EXPECTING SNOW RATIOS UPWARDS OF 15:1. QPF
ATTM AOB .10" ON AVERAGE. SOME SCT -SN WILL BE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE...AS THE TROF ALOFT SHARPENS INTO THE REGION FM THE
WNW. POPS WILL RANGE FM 40-60% SE...TO 15-25% ELSEWHERE. SNOW
ACCUMS AT THIS TIME ARE FCST TO BE AN INCH OR LESS...WITH THE ONE
INCH AMT CLOSER TO THE ALBEMARLE SND. DUE TO CLOUDS AND A COLD
START...EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LWR TO MID 30S.

VRBL CLUODS/POSSIBLE ISLTD -SNSH FRI EVENG...THEN STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE FA LATE FRI NGT/SAT MORNG...USHERING IN ADDITIONAL
ARCTIC AIR. POTENTIAL FOR BAY/OCEAN INDUCED SNSH...OTHERWISE
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SAT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS (TO 25-30
MPH). HI TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 20S NW TO 30-35F ELSEWHERE
(WIND CHILLS AVERAGING IN THE TEENS TO LWR 20S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG CAA WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT...AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. 850MB TEMPERATURES PLUMMET TO AROUND -20 TO
- 22C ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIRMASS SO
FAR THIS WINTER...AND IT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE
2015- 16 WINTER LOCALLY BASED ON THE FACT THAT IT WILL BE MID-
FEBRUARY AND THE 8-14 DAY CPC OUTLOOK INDICATES ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATER PORTION OF THE MONTH. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
WITH MID TEENS SE. A NW WIND (STRONGEST E) WILL DROP WIND CHILLS
BELOW 0F FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST
WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY. THE HIGH BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
LOW 20S NE...TO MID/UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY
SKY...ALTHOUGH BAY STREAMERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ATTENTION
TURNING TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. THERE
IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS. HOWEVER...A
TROUGH DOES DIG ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE COLD
AIR WILL SHALLOW AND RETREAT DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT WILL LIKELY
BE STUBBORN TO RETREAT TOO FAST. THE AMOUNT OF WINTRY PCPN WILL
DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK...WITH THE 10/12Z GFS/CMC SHOWING A
COLDER MORE SRN AND OFFSHORE TRACK...WITH TH3 10/12Z ECMWF
DEPICTING AN INLAND AND WARMER TRACK. DRYING OCCURS MIDWEEK IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE CLIPPING THE
AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW SHWRS ASSCTD WITH AN EWRD MOVG S/W WILL MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA
NEXT 1-2 HRS. OTW...HIGH PRS BUILDS IN FROM THE W RESULTING IN
MAINLY SKC EXPECT FOR SOME PASSING MID LVL CLDS FROM TIME TO TIME.
PRS GRDNT BTWN DEPARTING S/W AND BLDG SFC HIGH RESULTS IN RTHR
BREEZY CNDTNS WITH W WNDS BTWN 15-25 KTS THRU 22Z. WNDS QUICKLY
DMNSH BY SS THU.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW MAINLY ORF/ECG AREA LATE FRIDAY. DRY
WEATHER WITH GUSTY NW WINDS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
RAIN OR SNOW MONDAY AS SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS BRING A WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
STRNG SCA`S REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA DUE TO
MODEST CAA FROM A TIGHT PRS GRDNT BTWN DEPARTING S/W AND BLDG SFC
HIGH TO THE W. CAPPED WIND GUSTS AT 30 KTS. ADDED LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY OVER THE CHES BAY AND COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING GIVEN TMPS
AOB 30 DEGREES COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS. SEAS 4-5 FT GIVEN THE
OFFSHORE FLOW...HIGHEST OUT NR 20 NM. WNDS / WAVES / SEAS DMNSH THIS
EVE SO HAVE HEADLINES ENDG BTWN 23-06Z.

HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE FRI AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD BRING SOME REDUCED
VSBY IN SN FOR THE SRN COASTAL ZONES.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES THE COAST SATURDAY...WITH
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONG
CAA IS EXPECTED WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE NE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NW. GALE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY (GUSTS BTWN 35-40 KTS)...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE BAY AND OCEAN. ADDED FREEZING SPRAY SAT NIGHT TO THE CHES
BAY AND CSTL WTRS AS TMPS FCSTD TO PLUMMENT THRU THE 20S AND INTO
THE TEENS. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE
LEVEL FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LAST NITE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE WNW FLOW WILL ALLOW ANOMALIES TO FURTHER FALL. STRONG NW FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE BLOW-OUT TIDES
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ634-650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR
HYDROLOGY...MPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MPR




000
FXUS61 KPHI 110840
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
340 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND THEN
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY, ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY. THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

FOR A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER DAY, STILL HAVE THREE MAIN STORIES TO
TALK ABOUT FOR THE TODAY PERIOD.

SNOW...AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP ACROSS THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN NJ THROUGH
AT LEAST MID DAY. IN ADDITION, THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME. THESE FACTORS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, OR MAYBE EVEN A FAST
MOVING SNOW SQUALL, ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION. WITH
PERSISTENT DRY AIR ADVECTION, MOISTURE IS LIMITED. SO EVEN THOUGH
SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS COULD BE ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO THE VERY COLD AIR
IN PLACE, STILL EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO REMAIN BELOW ONE INCH.

WINDS...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z BEFORE IT STARTS TO DECREASE AS THE SURFACE LOW
LIFTS FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THUS, EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS POINT THOUGH, WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
(SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 31 MPH FOR AT LEAST ONE HOUR OR GUSTS
OF 46 MPH) ARE NOT ANTICIPATED, SINCE THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE THE MIXING LAYER GETS VERY DEEP.
HAVING SAID THAT THOUGH, THE GFS DOES SHOW THAT THE SUSTAINED
CRITERIA COULD BE REACHED FOR LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO THE DE BAY,
SINCE THE DIRECTION IS A FAVORED DIRECTION FOR THE FUNNELING EFFECT
OVER THE BAY. FOR NOW THOUGH, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT IT WILL BE
REACHED SO WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

COLD...TODAY BEGINS THE COLD STRETCH WHICH WE ARE EXPECTING TO
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE TODAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE WARMEST
OF THE NEXT 4 DAYS, THE REGION SHOULD STAY BELOW FREEZING, AND
PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS AND NW NJ MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE TEENS.
THIS WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN THE WINDY
CONDITIONS, WIND CHILL VALUES ACROSS THE REGION WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN
THE TEENS AT BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...

HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN, AND CONSEQUENTLY WINDS DIMINISH, AND CLOUDS
WILL DISSIPATE. AS A RESULT, SHOULD SEE CONSIDERABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS AND WIND CHILL
VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE BOTH THE PROSPECTS FOR THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON CENTERED ON SUNDAY MORNING AND A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP.
THESE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER AN INCH.

BEHIND THE FRONT, IT WILL BE A VERY COLD AND WINDY PERIOD WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE NW FLOW OFF OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE FAVORED REGIONS TO
SEE SNOW SHOWERS ARE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS OF EASTERN PA AND
NW NJ. BUFKIT ANALYSIS YIELDS THE POTENTIAL FOR 30-40 MPH GUSTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE GUST POTENTIAL. THE STRONG CAA WILL NOT ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE MUCH DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. MODELING HAS BEEN HOLDING STEADY ON THE
IDEA THAT 850 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE BELOW -25C. WILL
NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE DEGREE OF THE COLD AIR
BEING MODELED. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS, THOUGH NOT AS STRONG
AS ON SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.
THE COLD AND WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS FROM -10 TO -30 BELOW
ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. PLEASE TO MAKE SURE TO
PREPARE FOR THE COLD WEATHER THAT IS COMING. PREPARATIONS INCLUDE
CHECKING PIPES AND MAKING SURE YOUR VEHICLE IS IN GOOD WORKING
CONDITION. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY NEAR OR
BELOW ZERO AS WELL. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION ON RECORD
POTENTIAL.

PRESIDENTS DAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS
CURRENTLY MODELED TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. THE 00Z 2/11 OPERATIONAL
MODELS HAVE NARROWED THE GOAL POSTS OF POSSIBILE TRACKS FROM EARLIER
MODEL RUNS. THIS ALSO MATCHES OR IS JUST EAST OF THE 12Z 2/10 ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACK. THIS TRACK GOES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL AL/GA
NORTHEAST TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINE THEN DUE NORTH UP THE EAST
COAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TWO MAIN FEATURES ARE PRESENT TO
TRACK WITH REGARDS TO MODELS OR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES CHANGING THE
FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IN FUTURE RUNS. THIS FIRST IS A
LEADING SHORTWAVE WHICH MOVES INTO THE THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY
AND THE SECOND IS THE DEGREE OF MID- LEVEL HEIGHT RISES THAT
OCCUR AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WOULD TEND
TO PUSH THE OVERALL TROUGH WITH THIS STORM FURTHER EAST. WHILE A
WEAKER SHORTWAVE WOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER MID- LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
LEADING TO A FURTHER WEST TRACK OF THE LOW. RIGHT NOW THE FAVORED
TRACK WOULD RESULT IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. IT WILL LIKELY BE WINDY AS WELL WITH THE STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NEAR THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY: THE REGION SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AS
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION.
SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AS 2/11 00Z ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER SYSTEM
INTO THE REGION BY THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWER MOVING INTO KABE, KRDG, OR KTTN THROUGH 21Z,
BUT THESE LOCATIONS ARE ON THE VERY SOUTHERN END OF WHERE WE EXPECT
ANY SNOW SHOWERS, SO CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A MENTION IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE BETWEEN 15 AND 00Z. AFTER 00Z, EXPECT WINDS TO
DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY BUT REMAIN WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY: VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBILE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY FROM
15-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 25 KNOTS.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY THEN BECOMING MVFR AND
IFR BY EVENING WITH RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...

GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS
SHORTLY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WESTERLY AND
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TIME, WITH GUSTS UP TO
40 KT POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. AN SCA WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE OVER NIGHT HOURS ONCE
THE GALES SUBSIDE.

ALSO OF CONCERN TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE THE FREEZING SPRAY
EXPECTED ON THE BAY AS WELL AS THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. AT THIS
POINT, EXPECT LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY SO HAVE HELD OFF ON AN ADVISORY
AT THIS TIME, BUT OBSERVATIONS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

SEAS AND WINDS WILL START OUT FAIRLY LIGHT ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, A
QUICK RAMP UP IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND
REACH GALE FORCE BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE NEAR GALE FORCE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE FOR GALES ON SATURDAY IS CURRENTLY
HIGH. SEAS MAY REACH FIVE FEET FOR A PERIOD AS WELL ON SATURDAY.
SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE ON SUNDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL LIKELY START INCREASING AGAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN SEVERAL
DEGREES OF ZERO (WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY EXCEPT COLDER KMPO (NEAR -12F). THIS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/ECMWF 2M TEMPS CYCLICALLY SINCE AT LEAST THE
00Z/7 OPERATIONAL CYCLES. THEREFORE, BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD
EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY THE 14TH WOULD BE KABE,
KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

SNOW COVER MAY HELP A BIT I-95 NORTHWESTWARD...AND WE`LL SEE
WHERE WE ARE WITH SNOW COVER BY THURSDAY EVENING. NEW DUSTINGS
APPEAR ON THE WAY THE NEXT 30 HOURS.

SITE     2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR      RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH
----     ----------------------      --------------------

ABE              8                        -1 IN 1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

SO, THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY 30 BELOW IN
THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KLWX 110838
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
338 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE
MAY IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY AS THE FIRST
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ALOFT...BROAD UPPER LVL TROUGH
LIFTS NORTH AS ZONAL FLOW BUILDS IN BRIEFLY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
OUTSIDE OF CONTINUAL UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TODAY...DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED INTO FRI MORNING. AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTH...SHORTWAVE
ENERGY EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL MD COULD TRIGGER SCT FLURRIES. BUT
WITH SUCH A DRY AIR MASS IN THE LOWER LVLS...NOT ANTICIPATING ACCUM
SNOW. GUSTY NW FLOW TODAY WITH THE AREA REMAINING SANDWICHED BETWEEN
THE DEPARTING LOW AND APPROACHING HIGH. HIGH TEMPS WELL BELOW
NORMAL...AND COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS...WIND CHILLS WILL HOVER
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL DROP INTO SINGLE
DIGITS ABV ZERO AND THE TEENS...BUT WITH LIGHTER WINDS NOT
ANTICIPATING ANOTHER WIND CHILL ADVISORY BEING NEEDED.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD FRIDAY...RETURN FLOW WILL USHER IN
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND INCREASED MOISTURE. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
REACH NEAR FREEZING MOST PLACES. PCPN CHCS INCREASE FOR WESTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS WITH TWO LOW PRESSURE AREAS TO BE NOTED...LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND PRE-FRONTAL SFC
TROUGH SPLITTING THE WESTERN CWA. A LOT OF DRIER AIR NEEDS TO BE
OVERCOME...WHICH WILL MINIMIZE PCPN POTENTIAL...AT LAST THRU 00Z.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LVL TROUGH SWINGS SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT...SENDING THROUGH A
STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT. DEFINITE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE
COLD FROPA...AND SCT SNOW SHOWERS NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH
STRONG FORCING ALOFT. RIGHT NOW HAVE LESS THAN ONE INCH SNOW
CENTRAL MD (THOUGH WOULD BE A QUICK BURST)...WITH 1-3 INCHES OF
UPSLOPE SNOW...THE LATTER POTENTIALLY REQUIRING ANOTHER WINTER WX
ADVISORY.

THE BIGGER STORY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE ARCTIC BLAST IN THE WAKE AS
A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DIPS SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN US.
850MB TEMPS PLUMMET FROM -10 DEGREES CELSIUS 00Z SAT TO AROUND -20
DEGREES BY 12Z SAT. RESULTING TEMPS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS OUT WEST...TO THE 20S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. LOWS SAT NIGHT
WILL SEE BELOW ZERO TO RIGHT ABV ZERO WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...TO
SINGLE DIGITS ABV ZERO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. IN ADDITION...
STRONG NW WINDS EXPECTED WITH THE CAA...GUSTS AT LEAST 20- 30 KTS
AND 30-40 KTS IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS (WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED). CONCERNING WIND CHILLS...FRI NIGHT MOST LIKELY WILL NEED
AN ADVISORY FOR ALLEGHENY FRONT AND HIGHER BLUE RIDGE ZONES. THE
ADVISORY COULD CARRY THRU SAT. FOR SAT NIGHT...WIND CHILL WARNINGS
MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA...WITH WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES LIKELY FOR THE REMAINING CWA AS THE ENTIRE AREA DROPS
BELOW FREEZING.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD SFC HIPRES WL BE OVER THE CWFA SUN. THE ONLY SAVING GRACE MAY
BE THE RELATIVE LACK OF WIND...THX TO SUBSIDENCE. ITLL STILL BE A
COLD DAY NONETHELESS...WITH A FRIGID START AND MAXT THEN STRUGGLING
TO CLIMB THRU THE 20S. THE PRESENCE OF THIS COLD AMS ATOP US WL PLAY
A ROLE IN THE MON-TUE FCST.

MASSIVE TEMP CHGS RARELY OCCUR GRACEFULLY. THATS LOOKING TO BE THE
CASE MON INTO TUE. WAA WL ENSUE SUN NGT-MON AS THE HIGH DRIFTS
OFFSHORE AND SRN STREAM LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACRS THE SRN PLAINS...
EVENTUALLY ARRIVING IN THE CAROLINAS MON NGT. GDNC SUGGESTING VERY
DIFFERENT STRENGTH SOLNS UP TO THIS POINT...AND LOPRES TRACK FCSTS
VARY AS WELL BYD THIS POINT. REGARDLESS OF THESE SPECIFICS...THE
LINGERING AMS WL BE COLD ENUF FOR PTYPE TO BE SNOW AT ONSET. AFTER
THAT...THERE ARE PLENTY OF QUESTIONS LEFT TO ANSWER. GDNC FROM THE
CURRENT CYCLE SUGGESTS THAT THE AMS OVER THE CWFA WL REMAIN COLD
ENUF TO HOLD OFF ANY MIXING/RAIN TIL TUE. THE NEARER THE TRACK HOLDS
TO THE CWFA...THE GREATER THE OPPORTUNITY FOR MIXED PTYPE ISSUES.
THERES PLENTY OF ROOM FOR THIS FCST TO CHG...MOST LKLY SVRL TIMES.

BY TUE NGT OR WED...THE RESULTANT /AND DEEPENING/ CSTL LOW WL BE
DEPARTING THE MID ATLC...W/ ZONAL FLOW AND SEASONABLE TEMPS IN ITS
WAKE.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS LASTING THRU SAT NIGHT. ANY
SNOW SHOWER WILL BRING A BRIEF REDUCTION IN CIGS AND VIS...MAINLY
LOOKING AT KMRB/KIAD/KBWI/KMTN FRI NIGHT. GUSTY NW WINDS TODAY...
GUSTING BTW 20-30 KTS. LIGHT SW WINDS ON FRI...INCRSG QUICKLY FRI
NIGHT AND GUSTING BTW 25-35 KTS THRU SAT NIGHT.

VFR SUN UNDER HIPRES. FLGT CONDS TO DETERIORATE BY MON AS LOPRES
APPROACHES THE AREA. PTYPE ISSUES ABOUND...BUT MOST LKLY ITLL BE
SNOW AT ONSET.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS TODAY WITH NW WINDS GUSTING
BETWEEN 20-25 KTS. AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN TONIGHT...WINDS
DIMINISH...DROPPING BELOW SCA CRITERIA ON ALL WATERS BY FRI MORNING.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FRI WITH SCA CRITERIA RETURNING IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT FRI NIGHT. GALES LIKELY ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERS BY
12Z SAT MORNING...AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC BY MIDDAY SAT...LASTING
THRU AT LEAST SAT EVENING AND POSSIBLY TILL SUN MORNING.

WINDS WL DECREASE SUN AS HIPRES BLDS. MAY STILL HV SOME SCA CONDS IN
THE MRNG...BUT THESE WL DIMINISH THRU THE DAY. SLY FLOW BY MON AS
LOPRES APPROACHES. LKLY WL HV SNOW APPROACHING THE WATERS. PTYPE
AFTER THAT UNCERTAIN.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ501.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ501.
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ503-
     504-507-508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ503.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ501-
     503-505-506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ501-
     503-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...SEARS/HTS
MARINE...SEARS/HTS




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 110814
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
314 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE WEEK WITH BITTER COLD TO START THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN AXIS OF LOW LEVEL DEFORMATION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY EDGE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN REACHES OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. GIVEN THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH THERMAL LAYER AND SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY IS
PRESENT...THIS AXIS OF DEFORMATION IS SUMMARILY CO-LOCATED WITH A
BAND OF SNOW SQUALLS THAT HAS PLAGUED THE AREA JUST SOUTH OF I-80
TOWARD THE TURNPIKE VIRTUALLY ALL NIGHT. AS THE MORNING
ENSUES...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THIS LAYER SHOULD START TO
SUBSIDE...AS FLOW TURNS MORE UNI-DIRECTIONALLY FROM THE
NORTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR FAR LESS DOMINANT BANDING ALONG
THIS AXIS...THUS ALLOWING FOR THE SQUALLS TO DIMINISH.
HOWEVER...IN THE INTERIM...A FEW MORE INCHES OF LOCAL ACCUMULATION
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG HIGHWAY 422.

ELSEWHERE...UNSTABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BE OVERCOME
BY DRY CANADIAN AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE ONLY
PLACE WHERE THIS MAY NOT ENTIRELY BE THE CASE IS IN FOREST AND
VENANGO COUNTIES. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BANDING FROM
LAKE HURON WILL TREND SOUTHWARD LATE THIS MORNING. THIS WOULD
ALLOW FOR A MULTI-LAKE FETCH TO BRING SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKE
HURON...ACROSS LAKE ERIE...AND INTO THE FAR NORTHEASTERN REACHES
OF THE CWA. THUS POPS AND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE MAINTAINED HERE TO ASCERTAIN WHETHER THIS DEVELOPMENT DOES
OCCUR.

IN THE RIDGES...VISIBILITIES HAVE CONTINUED TO GENERALLY BE
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 MILES THROUGH THE NIGHT. A PERIOD OF A ENHANCED
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LIKELY AS FLOW TURNS TO THE
NORTHWEST...HOWEVER WEAKENING SATURATION WILL MEAN LESS EFFICIENT
SNOW GENERATION BY AFTERNOON. THUS A FEW MORE INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE RIDGES...HOWEVER TRENDS BY AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF.

ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE PRESENT...HOWEVER
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT/LOCAL AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
AREA. IN FACT...GOING INTO THE NIGHTTIME TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW
STARTS TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AND TURN A BIT TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS WILL LIKELY ERADICATE BOUNDARY LAYER RH VALUES...AND ALLOW
FOR DECENT TEMPERATURE FALLS. THEY WILL LIKELY BE TEMPERED BY
MORNING AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE...HOWEVER SINGLE DIGITS
WILL LIKELY STILL BE COMMON WITH WIND CHILLS INCREMENTALLY BELOW
ZERO. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
COLDER AIR WILL SURGE SOUTH LATER FRIDAY AS ARCTIC VORTEX DROPS
SOUTH. FRONT WILL CROSS REGION LATER FRIDAY WITH A ROUND OF SNOW
SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. BIGGER STORY WILL BE WIND CHILLS LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY 15 TO POSSIBLY 25 BELOW ZERO AS
WINDS REMAIN UP AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
HEADLINES FOR WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY.

SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ALTHOUGH IT IS EARLY TO SORT OUT EFFECTS
OF FRESH SNOWPACK AND JUST HOW MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR
DUE TO CLEARING SKIES...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WINTER WITH
TEMPERATURES IN MANY LOCATIONS BELOW 0F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY
BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
MODELS ARE NOT IN AS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM TODAY AS THEY
WERE YESTERDAY...WITH SOME MODEL GUIDANCE NOW BRINGING IN THE
SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST INSTEAD OF THE WEST- NORTHWEST...WHICH
WOULD AFFECT BOTH COVERAGE AND TIMING OF ANY PRECIPITATION. WINDS
MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...WITH A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHING BY WEDNESDAY. WHILE SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE COLD...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO
APPROACH NORMAL VALUES AGAIN FOR THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW SQUALLS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BETWEEN KBVI AND KFKL THROUGH THE
MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. LOCAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
MOST SITES...HOWEVER NO HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD AFFECT ANY
SITE. CIGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY AT MOST SITES BY TONIGHT

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER
COLD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING. WHILE THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ013-
     014-016-022-023.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ007>009-015-074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ510>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 110528
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1228 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY AND PUSHES OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST UPDATED TO ADJUST POPS A BIT BASED ON LATEST RADAR
TRENDS AND SFC OBS. UP TO A DUSTING IS PSBL OVER SOME PORTIONS OF
THE LWR ERN SHORE...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS OVER MOST
LOCATIONS THERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TROUGH AXIS ALOFT SWINGS THROUGH THE FA LT THIS AFTN/EVE...THEN
OFF THE CST OVRNGT. SCT-BKN CLDNS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH...ALG
W/ PSBL ISOLD SNSH OR FLURRIES (ESP NRN HALF AND ON THE LWR MD ERN
SHORE). OTRW...MNLY SUNNY SE...PARTLY SUNNY ELSW W/ SEASONABLY
COLD THUS FAR THIS AFTN. A BIT A GUSTY WSW AT TIMES ADDING A BIT
OF A CHILL. TEMPS RANGING FM THE U30S-M40S.

PARTLY CLOUDY-VRB CLDS THROUGH EARLY TNGT...THEN CLEARING
THEREAFTER (LINGER SNSH/FLURRIES INVOF PORTIONS OF ERN SHORE UNTIL
AFT MDNGT). LO TEMPS IN THE UPR TEENS ACRS THE CNTRL VA PIEDMONT
WHERE SKY CLRS EARLIER TO M20S ALONG THE COAST AND ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD UPR LVL TROUGH ALIGNED ALG THE ERN SEABOARD ON THU. DRY/COLD
DP LYRD WNW FLO AS CONDS AVG SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. HI TEMPS A TOUCH
LWR THAN TDA...RANGING FM THE L-M30S N TO THE M-U30S S.

SFC HI PRES OVR THE RGN THU NGT INTO FRI...AS ADDITIONAL UPR LVL
ENERGY DIGS OVR THE MIDWEST INTO THE GULF STATES. MDLS CONT TO
INSIST ON DEVELOPMENT OF WK SFC LO PRES INVOF SE CONUS CST FRI
MRNG...WHICH TRACKS E OUT TO SEA FRI AFTN/NGT. 12Z/10 ECMWF RMNS
THE MDL THAT KEEPS MOISTURE W/ THAT SYS S OF THE FA. WILL CONT TO
BLEND THE NAM/GFS AND CURRENT FCST...WHICH HAS A PD OF -SN PSBL
ACRS FAR SRN AND SE PORTIONS OF VA AND ACRS NE NC (STARTING BTWN
15-18Z/12). MDL SOUNDINGS QUITE DRY BLO 5KFT AND XPCG SNOW RATIOS
UPWARDS OF 15:1. QPF ATTM AOB .10" ON AVG. SOME SCT -SN PSBL ELSW
AS TROUGH ALOFT SHARPENS INTO THE RGN FM THE WNW. POPS WILL RANGE
FM 40-60% SE...TO 15-25% ELSW. SN ACCUMS RIGHT NOW AN FCST TO BE
AN IN OR LESS. DUE TO CLOUDS AND A COLD START...EXPECT HIGHS ONLY
IN THE L-M30S MOST PLACES.

VRB CLDS/PSBL ISOLD -SNSH FRI EVE...THEN STRONG CDFNT TO CROSS THE
FA LT FRI NGT/SAT MRNG...USHERING IN ADDITIONAL ARCTIC AIR. PTNTL
FOR BAY/OCN INDUCED SNSH...OTRW SKC-PARTLY CLOUDY SAT W/ GUSTY NW
WNDS (TO 25-30 MPH). HI TEMPS FM THE U20S NW TO 30-35F ELSW (WIND
CHILLS AVGG IN THE TEENS TO L20S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG CAA WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. 850MB TEMPERATURES PLUMMET TO AROUND -20 TO -
22C ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIRMASS SO FAR
THIS WINTER...AND IT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015-
16 WINTER LOCALLY BASED ON THE FACT THAT IT WILL BE MID-FEBRUARY AND
THE 8-14 DAY CPC OUTLOOK INDICATES ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS WE
MOVE INTO THE LATER PORTION OF THE MONTH. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT DROP
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH MID TEENS SE. A NW
WIND (STRONGEST E) WILL DROP WIND CHILLS BELOW 0F FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA AND BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE NECESSARY. THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW 20S NE...TO MID/UPPER 20S
ELSEWHERE UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...ALTHOUGH BAY STREAMERS ARE
POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ATTENTION TURNING TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO
THE DETAILS. HOWEVER...A TROUGH DOES DIG ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE COLD AIR WILL SHALLOW AND RETREAT DURING THIS
PERIOD...BUT WILL LIKELY BE STUBBORN TO RETREAT TOO FAST. THE AMOUNT
OF WINTRY PCPN WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK...WITH THE 10/12Z
GFS/CMC SHOWING A COLDER MORE SRN AND OFFSHORE TRACK...WITH TH3
10/12Z ECMWF DEPICTING AN INLAND AND WARMER TRACK. DRYING OCCURS
MIDWEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE
CLIPPING THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW SHWRS ASSCTD WITH AN EWRD MOVG S/W WILL MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA
NEXT 1-2 HRS. OTW...HIGH PRS BUILDS IN FROM THE W RESULTING IN
MAINLY SKC EXPECT FOR SOME PASSING MID LVL CLDS FROM TIME TO TIME.
PRS GRDNT BTWN DEPARTING S/W AND BLDG SFC HIGH RESULTS IN RTHR
BREEZY CNDTNS WITH W WNDS BTWN 15-25 KTS THRU 22Z. WNDS QUICKLY
DMNSH BY SS THU.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW MAINLY ORF/ECG AREA LATE FRIDAY. DRY
WEATHER WITH GUSTY NW WINDS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
RAIN OR SNOW MONDAY AS SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS BRING A WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
WITH MODEST CAA. THIS WILL HELP STRENGTHEN WNW FLOW OVERNIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING 20-25KT WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE MARINE AREA WITH 15-20KT WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25KT OVER THE RIVERS. SEAS GENERALLY AVERAGE 4-5FT WITH 3-4FT
WAVES IN THE BAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH
COULD BRING SOME REDUCED VSBY IN SN FOR THE SRN COASTAL ZONES.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES THE COAST SATURDAY...WITH
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONG
CAA IS EXPECTED WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE NE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NW. GALE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BAY AND
OCEAN. FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY AS TEMPERATURES PLUMMET SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL.
SEE FLSAKQ FOR DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ALL COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED AS TIDAL
ANOMAILES CONTINUE TO FALL IN WESTERLY FLOW. THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
WNW TONIGHT...WHICH WILL ALLOW ANOMALIES TO FURTHER FALL. STRONG
NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE BLOW-
OUT TIDES THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>633-635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ634-650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAS
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MPR/LSA
MARINE...AJZ
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 110528
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1228 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY AND PUSHES OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST UPDATED TO ADJUST POPS A BIT BASED ON LATEST RADAR
TRENDS AND SFC OBS. UP TO A DUSTING IS PSBL OVER SOME PORTIONS OF
THE LWR ERN SHORE...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS OVER MOST
LOCATIONS THERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TROUGH AXIS ALOFT SWINGS THROUGH THE FA LT THIS AFTN/EVE...THEN
OFF THE CST OVRNGT. SCT-BKN CLDNS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH...ALG
W/ PSBL ISOLD SNSH OR FLURRIES (ESP NRN HALF AND ON THE LWR MD ERN
SHORE). OTRW...MNLY SUNNY SE...PARTLY SUNNY ELSW W/ SEASONABLY
COLD THUS FAR THIS AFTN. A BIT A GUSTY WSW AT TIMES ADDING A BIT
OF A CHILL. TEMPS RANGING FM THE U30S-M40S.

PARTLY CLOUDY-VRB CLDS THROUGH EARLY TNGT...THEN CLEARING
THEREAFTER (LINGER SNSH/FLURRIES INVOF PORTIONS OF ERN SHORE UNTIL
AFT MDNGT). LO TEMPS IN THE UPR TEENS ACRS THE CNTRL VA PIEDMONT
WHERE SKY CLRS EARLIER TO M20S ALONG THE COAST AND ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD UPR LVL TROUGH ALIGNED ALG THE ERN SEABOARD ON THU. DRY/COLD
DP LYRD WNW FLO AS CONDS AVG SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. HI TEMPS A TOUCH
LWR THAN TDA...RANGING FM THE L-M30S N TO THE M-U30S S.

SFC HI PRES OVR THE RGN THU NGT INTO FRI...AS ADDITIONAL UPR LVL
ENERGY DIGS OVR THE MIDWEST INTO THE GULF STATES. MDLS CONT TO
INSIST ON DEVELOPMENT OF WK SFC LO PRES INVOF SE CONUS CST FRI
MRNG...WHICH TRACKS E OUT TO SEA FRI AFTN/NGT. 12Z/10 ECMWF RMNS
THE MDL THAT KEEPS MOISTURE W/ THAT SYS S OF THE FA. WILL CONT TO
BLEND THE NAM/GFS AND CURRENT FCST...WHICH HAS A PD OF -SN PSBL
ACRS FAR SRN AND SE PORTIONS OF VA AND ACRS NE NC (STARTING BTWN
15-18Z/12). MDL SOUNDINGS QUITE DRY BLO 5KFT AND XPCG SNOW RATIOS
UPWARDS OF 15:1. QPF ATTM AOB .10" ON AVG. SOME SCT -SN PSBL ELSW
AS TROUGH ALOFT SHARPENS INTO THE RGN FM THE WNW. POPS WILL RANGE
FM 40-60% SE...TO 15-25% ELSW. SN ACCUMS RIGHT NOW AN FCST TO BE
AN IN OR LESS. DUE TO CLOUDS AND A COLD START...EXPECT HIGHS ONLY
IN THE L-M30S MOST PLACES.

VRB CLDS/PSBL ISOLD -SNSH FRI EVE...THEN STRONG CDFNT TO CROSS THE
FA LT FRI NGT/SAT MRNG...USHERING IN ADDITIONAL ARCTIC AIR. PTNTL
FOR BAY/OCN INDUCED SNSH...OTRW SKC-PARTLY CLOUDY SAT W/ GUSTY NW
WNDS (TO 25-30 MPH). HI TEMPS FM THE U20S NW TO 30-35F ELSW (WIND
CHILLS AVGG IN THE TEENS TO L20S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG CAA WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. 850MB TEMPERATURES PLUMMET TO AROUND -20 TO -
22C ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIRMASS SO FAR
THIS WINTER...AND IT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015-
16 WINTER LOCALLY BASED ON THE FACT THAT IT WILL BE MID-FEBRUARY AND
THE 8-14 DAY CPC OUTLOOK INDICATES ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS WE
MOVE INTO THE LATER PORTION OF THE MONTH. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT DROP
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH MID TEENS SE. A NW
WIND (STRONGEST E) WILL DROP WIND CHILLS BELOW 0F FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA AND BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE NECESSARY. THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW 20S NE...TO MID/UPPER 20S
ELSEWHERE UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...ALTHOUGH BAY STREAMERS ARE
POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ATTENTION TURNING TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO
THE DETAILS. HOWEVER...A TROUGH DOES DIG ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE COLD AIR WILL SHALLOW AND RETREAT DURING THIS
PERIOD...BUT WILL LIKELY BE STUBBORN TO RETREAT TOO FAST. THE AMOUNT
OF WINTRY PCPN WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK...WITH THE 10/12Z
GFS/CMC SHOWING A COLDER MORE SRN AND OFFSHORE TRACK...WITH TH3
10/12Z ECMWF DEPICTING AN INLAND AND WARMER TRACK. DRYING OCCURS
MIDWEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE
CLIPPING THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW SHWRS ASSCTD WITH AN EWRD MOVG S/W WILL MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA
NEXT 1-2 HRS. OTW...HIGH PRS BUILDS IN FROM THE W RESULTING IN
MAINLY SKC EXPECT FOR SOME PASSING MID LVL CLDS FROM TIME TO TIME.
PRS GRDNT BTWN DEPARTING S/W AND BLDG SFC HIGH RESULTS IN RTHR
BREEZY CNDTNS WITH W WNDS BTWN 15-25 KTS THRU 22Z. WNDS QUICKLY
DMNSH BY SS THU.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW MAINLY ORF/ECG AREA LATE FRIDAY. DRY
WEATHER WITH GUSTY NW WINDS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
RAIN OR SNOW MONDAY AS SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS BRING A WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
WITH MODEST CAA. THIS WILL HELP STRENGTHEN WNW FLOW OVERNIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING 20-25KT WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE MARINE AREA WITH 15-20KT WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25KT OVER THE RIVERS. SEAS GENERALLY AVERAGE 4-5FT WITH 3-4FT
WAVES IN THE BAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH
COULD BRING SOME REDUCED VSBY IN SN FOR THE SRN COASTAL ZONES.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES THE COAST SATURDAY...WITH
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONG
CAA IS EXPECTED WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE NE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NW. GALE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BAY AND
OCEAN. FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY AS TEMPERATURES PLUMMET SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL.
SEE FLSAKQ FOR DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ALL COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED AS TIDAL
ANOMAILES CONTINUE TO FALL IN WESTERLY FLOW. THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
WNW TONIGHT...WHICH WILL ALLOW ANOMALIES TO FURTHER FALL. STRONG
NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE BLOW-
OUT TIDES THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>633-635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ634-650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAS
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ