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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020416
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1216 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE REPLACED BY
INCREASING CLOUDS BY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST...AND
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE
FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN WARM ADVECTION AND
WITH LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPMENT. MAINTAINED INCREASING POPS FROM
W-E THROUGH THE DAY. PROGGED INSTABILITY IS LIMITED...AND ONLY A
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IS FORECAST. MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS BY AFTERNOON. WITH A FASTER ONSET OF CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT IS STILL FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES RIDE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...BRINGING
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS. THE LAST...AND MOST SIGNIFICANT WAVE THAT WILL
HELP PUSH THE FRONT TO THE EAST WILL COME LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.
WHILE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE PRESENT...AS SUGGESTED
IN THE MODEL WITH PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 1.00 INCH AND THE 1 TO
2 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS PROGGED AREAWIDE...THE LONG DURATION OF
THE EVENT SHOULD HELP TO MINIMIZE WATER PROBLEMS. HOWEVER...IF
THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...HEAVIER
RAINFALL COULD CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES. AT THIS
TIME...WILL NOT ADD ANY CONCERN FOR THIS IN THE HWO WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE FRONT AND SURFACE WAVE EXITING. A
BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS THE PRECIP ENDS. ANY
REMAINING PRECIP CHANCES...MAINLY NE OF PIT...SHOULD DIMINISH BY
AFTERNOON.

GENERALLY KEPT A COMPROMISE OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND TO LESSER EXTENT
THE NAM AND SREF FOR THE FORECAST WITH MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO
POPS AND TEMPERATURES FROM THE LAST SHIFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A TRAILING SHORTWAVE IS STILL PROGGED TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS
ALONG A SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE
SITUATION...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE...SO SLIGHT...TO CHANCE POPS WERE CONFINED TO
NORTHERN COUNTIES.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO NEAR...THEN ABOVE
THE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS IN RESPONSE TO WESTERN STATES TROUGHING.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL RISE AS THE WEEK AND TROUGH PROGRESS.

THE LONG TERM PROGNOSIS WAS PRIMARILY BASED ON ADJUSTED WPC
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR IS FORECAST UNTIL AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT GENERATES SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON.  LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED THOUGH AS LOW
LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES ABOVE SHALLOW INVERSION AFTER DAYBREAK.  THAT
PROBLEM IS LIKELY TO PERSIST UNTIL MIXING INCREASES THE SURFACE WIND
LATER IN THE DAY.

BY TONIGHT...CONDITION DEGRADATION TO WIDESPREAD MVFR...AND PROBABLY
EVENTUAL IFR...CAN BE EXPECTED AS RAIN BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD WITH
THE ENCROACHING FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
MAIN MAINTAIN RESTRICTIONS INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





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000
FXUS61 KPHI 020347
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1147 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FRIDAY, WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH
SUNDAY, WHILE A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
FRONT MAY STALL NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLEAR BEAUTIFUL OVERNIGHT WITH IDEAL RADIATING CONDITIONS MUCH OF
THE COUNTRYSIDE AND SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED TEMP TRENDS IN A FEW
COUNTRYSIDE LOCATIONS IN THE MIDNIGHT ESTF. MOST OF THE SNOW IS
GONE NOW EXCEPT IN THE WOODED REGIONS N OF I-80.

A SUNNY MILD THURSDAY FOLLOWS WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS 25
TO 30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS.
AFTERNOON TEMPS 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR 65 EXCEPT
COOLER IN THE ELEVATIONS ABOVE 500 FEET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BECOMING CLOUDY. SHOWERS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAWN FRIDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW WITH ITS ASSOCIATED MODEST INSTABILITY
BURST. KI NEAR 32. LOWS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT, SETTING UP THE
BEGINNING OF A WET PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT DOES NOT
LOOK TO MAKE IT FULLY INTO OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AS IT MAY STALL
JUST TO OUR NORTH, WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT, FINALLY PULLING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SEVERAL VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL BE
TRAVERSING THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, WHICH WILL LEAD TO
SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE
REMAINS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS A PORTION OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM, SO WE WILL KEEP A MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONG
INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER, IF THUNDERSTORMS DO OCCUR, THEY COULD
PRODUCE SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS. ACTUALLY, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
FRIDAY MAY BE A GUSTY DAY IN GENERAL DUE TO THE SYNOPTIC PRESSURE
GRADIENT. AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA TO CHANGE
THE RAIN OVER TO SNOW FOR A PERIOD ACROSS THE POCONOS.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MOVED PAST THE AREA BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY,
BUT WE EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO END THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS
THE LOW MOVES WELL TO OUR NORTH, STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA, LEADING TO A GUSTY DAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH.
THE STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD BEGIN TO DROP OFF OVERNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRONT THE NORTH, BUT
MAY NOT FULLY MAKE IT ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONT MAY STALL JUST TO
THE NORTH. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN LIFT TO OUR NORTHEAST
EARLY MONDAY WHEN THE FRONT MAY FINALLY PUSH ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER, THIS IS WHEN THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITH THE LONG TERM
MODELS. THE GFS ENDS UP LIFTING THIS FRONT BACK NORTHWARD MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BEFORE PROGRESSIVELY MOVING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OUT OF THE MID-WEST AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA FOR
MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY, BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE DIFFERENCE IN MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE FACT ITS STILL PRETTY
FAR OUT, WE`VE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE WHICH MORE CLOSELY
RESEMBLES THE ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES. THAT BEING SAID, THE EARLY TO
MID PART OF NEXT WEEK COULD BE UNSETTLED.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...CLEAR. CALM TO LIGHT SSW WIND.

THURSDAY...VFR CLEAR OR SCT CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT. SW WIND
INCREASING WITH GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON OF 25-30 KT.

THURSDAY NIGHT...CIGS AOA 6000 FT BECOME MVFR OR IFR IN SHOWERS
AFTER 10Z. MODEST LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. SW SFC WIND 10-15 KT WITH
WINDS AT 1000 FT 210 35-40 KT MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND 230 50 KT AT
2000 FT, ESPECIALLY NEAR 05Z.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY; THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS 20-30 KNOTS FRIDAY.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KNOTS
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES PRIOR TO NOON THURSDAY AS THE WINDS TURN S-SW AT
10-15 KT.

SCA THIS AFTN-TONIGHT AS THE SW WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KT, ESPECIALLY
NEAR SHORE THURSDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AFFECT THE AREA AND MOVE THROUGH.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...WINDS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE ARE FORECASTING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND INCREASING TO 15 TO
20 MPH FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH
AT THAT TIME. ALSO, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
AROUND 30 PERCENT AND FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE.

THERE WILL PROBABLY BE AN ENHANCED THREAT OF WILDFIRE SPREAD ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, EXCEPT FOR THOSE AREAS THAT STILL HAVE SNOW
COVER. WE WILL BE ISSUING A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AT ABOUT 4
AM FOR ENHANCED FIRE DANGER THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION WITH OUR PARTNERS FOR ANY
FURTHER UPGRADES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/IOVINO/NIERENBERG 1147
SHORT TERM...DRAG/IOVINO 1147
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/IOVINO/ROBERTSON 1147
MARINE...DRAG/IOVINO/ROBERTSON 1147
FIRE WEATHER...1147




000
FXUS61 KPHI 020347
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1147 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FRIDAY, WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH
SUNDAY, WHILE A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
FRONT MAY STALL NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLEAR BEAUTIFUL OVERNIGHT WITH IDEAL RADIATING CONDITIONS MUCH OF
THE COUNTRYSIDE AND SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED TEMP TRENDS IN A FEW
COUNTRYSIDE LOCATIONS IN THE MIDNIGHT ESTF. MOST OF THE SNOW IS
GONE NOW EXCEPT IN THE WOODED REGIONS N OF I-80.

A SUNNY MILD THURSDAY FOLLOWS WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS 25
TO 30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS.
AFTERNOON TEMPS 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR 65 EXCEPT
COOLER IN THE ELEVATIONS ABOVE 500 FEET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BECOMING CLOUDY. SHOWERS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAWN FRIDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW WITH ITS ASSOCIATED MODEST INSTABILITY
BURST. KI NEAR 32. LOWS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT, SETTING UP THE
BEGINNING OF A WET PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT DOES NOT
LOOK TO MAKE IT FULLY INTO OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AS IT MAY STALL
JUST TO OUR NORTH, WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT, FINALLY PULLING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SEVERAL VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL BE
TRAVERSING THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, WHICH WILL LEAD TO
SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE
REMAINS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS A PORTION OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM, SO WE WILL KEEP A MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONG
INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER, IF THUNDERSTORMS DO OCCUR, THEY COULD
PRODUCE SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS. ACTUALLY, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
FRIDAY MAY BE A GUSTY DAY IN GENERAL DUE TO THE SYNOPTIC PRESSURE
GRADIENT. AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA TO CHANGE
THE RAIN OVER TO SNOW FOR A PERIOD ACROSS THE POCONOS.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MOVED PAST THE AREA BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY,
BUT WE EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO END THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS
THE LOW MOVES WELL TO OUR NORTH, STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA, LEADING TO A GUSTY DAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH.
THE STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD BEGIN TO DROP OFF OVERNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRONT THE NORTH, BUT
MAY NOT FULLY MAKE IT ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONT MAY STALL JUST TO
THE NORTH. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN LIFT TO OUR NORTHEAST
EARLY MONDAY WHEN THE FRONT MAY FINALLY PUSH ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER, THIS IS WHEN THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITH THE LONG TERM
MODELS. THE GFS ENDS UP LIFTING THIS FRONT BACK NORTHWARD MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BEFORE PROGRESSIVELY MOVING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OUT OF THE MID-WEST AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA FOR
MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY, BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE DIFFERENCE IN MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE FACT ITS STILL PRETTY
FAR OUT, WE`VE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE WHICH MORE CLOSELY
RESEMBLES THE ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES. THAT BEING SAID, THE EARLY TO
MID PART OF NEXT WEEK COULD BE UNSETTLED.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...CLEAR. CALM TO LIGHT SSW WIND.

THURSDAY...VFR CLEAR OR SCT CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT. SW WIND
INCREASING WITH GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON OF 25-30 KT.

THURSDAY NIGHT...CIGS AOA 6000 FT BECOME MVFR OR IFR IN SHOWERS
AFTER 10Z. MODEST LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. SW SFC WIND 10-15 KT WITH
WINDS AT 1000 FT 210 35-40 KT MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND 230 50 KT AT
2000 FT, ESPECIALLY NEAR 05Z.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY; THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS 20-30 KNOTS FRIDAY.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KNOTS
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES PRIOR TO NOON THURSDAY AS THE WINDS TURN S-SW AT
10-15 KT.

SCA THIS AFTN-TONIGHT AS THE SW WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KT, ESPECIALLY
NEAR SHORE THURSDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AFFECT THE AREA AND MOVE THROUGH.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...WINDS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE ARE FORECASTING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND INCREASING TO 15 TO
20 MPH FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH
AT THAT TIME. ALSO, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
AROUND 30 PERCENT AND FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE.

THERE WILL PROBABLY BE AN ENHANCED THREAT OF WILDFIRE SPREAD ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, EXCEPT FOR THOSE AREAS THAT STILL HAVE SNOW
COVER. WE WILL BE ISSUING A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AT ABOUT 4
AM FOR ENHANCED FIRE DANGER THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION WITH OUR PARTNERS FOR ANY
FURTHER UPGRADES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/IOVINO/NIERENBERG 1147
SHORT TERM...DRAG/IOVINO 1147
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/IOVINO/ROBERTSON 1147
MARINE...DRAG/IOVINO/ROBERTSON 1147
FIRE WEATHER...1147


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000
FXUS61 KLWX 020131
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
931 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL SETUP OVER THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND
REMAIN PLACE INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT...BUT IT
WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES. DID TWEAK MIN TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN THE
SHELTERED VALLEYS AND RURAL AREAS DUE TO A GOOD SETUP FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S IN
SHELTERED VALLEYS AND RURAL AREAS TO THE MIDDLE 40S IN DOWNTOWN
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST ON THURSDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRACKS TOWARD THE MID
WEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL INCREASE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON
THE BREEZY SIDE AND TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 60S AND 70S
AREA WIDE. STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS OF THE
BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THESE AREAS. PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VA AND SOUTHERN MD
COULD SEE AN ENHANCED FIRE THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO
BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS. PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES
INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA...WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WARM AIR AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. LIGHT PCPN WILL BE PSBL THRU THURS
NIGHT...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION. BETTER CHC FOR PCPN WILL COME DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT POSITIONED ACROSS CENTRAL PA AND TO THE
WEST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AS THE LLJ ALIGNS SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. WAA PUSHES 850MB TEMPS TO AROUND 10
DEGREES CELSIUS...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR
MOST OF THE AREA. THIS COMBINING WITH DEW PTS NEARING 60 SHOULD
RESULT IN SOME INSTABILITY...AS INDICATIVE ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NAM INDICATING CAPE VALUES AROUND 500
J/KG...AND SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40 KTS. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THE CHC FOR TSTM DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW THE BEST
CHC FOR ANY SVR WX LOOKS TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...BUT
WITH 850MB WINDS BETWEEN 40-60 KTS...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
THAT ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD BRING DOWN STRONGER WINDS.

THE COLD FRONT REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH
A SECOND LOW THEN LIFTING NORTH...EVENTUALLY DRAGGING THE FRONT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TO
BE THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT...SO WILL MAINTAIN POPS IN FOR THE
NIGHT...THOUGH WITH A DECREASING THUNDER THREAT. AS THE FRONT CLEARS
THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BRINGING ABOUT
DRY WX. CLOUDY CONDITIONS THOUGH STILL PSBL DURING THE DAY SAT AS
THE UPPER LVL TROUGH PIVOTS THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST PASSING NORTH
OF THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING. SHORT WAVE OFF THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST SATURDAY WILL TAKE THE SOUTHERN TRACK
INTO WEST TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE AREAS OF WEAK PVA IN ZONAL
FLOW WILL AFFECT THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE ON NORTHERN TRACK WILL PUSH INTO
CENTRAL VIRGINIA BEFORE STALLING TUESDAY. DYNAMICS SUPPORT INCREASED
CHANCES FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AT ALL TERMINAL
SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY DURING THURSDAY. WIND
SPEEDS IN THE 15-20 KTS RANGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS ARE
EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES.

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY THURS NIGHT...WITH PSBL MVFR CIGS MOVING
IN AFTER 06Z. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS LIKELY FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS. GUSTY WINDS PSBL WITH SOME OF THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND TSTMS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE FRI
NIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR SAT INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT BUT WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY OUT OF THE
SOUTH. SOUTHERLY CHANNELING WILL LEAD TO SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL THE
WATERS DURING THE DAY.

SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...THEN SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY AGAIN SATURDAY AS
NW WINDS INCREASE. SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS WILL BE PSBL FRI-FRI
NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHC FOR TSTMS LATE FRI AFTN/EVENING. SCA
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO MODERATE INTO THE 60S AND 70S AREA WIDE.
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AND HUMIDITIES LOOK TO BE MARGINAL THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE THREAT FOR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER IS LOW. WILL NOT ISSUE A WATCH AT THIS TIME. MORE
LIKELY TO SEE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED ON LATER SHIFTS
WITH THE FOCUS AREA OVER PORTIONS OF THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT...CENTRAL
VA AND SOUTHERN MD.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...BJL/KRW
SHORT TERM...BJL/SEARS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...BJL/CEM/SEARS/KRW
MARINE...BJL/CEM/SEARS/KRW
FIRE WEATHER...KRW




000
FXUS61 KLWX 020131
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
931 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL SETUP OVER THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND
REMAIN PLACE INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT...BUT IT
WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES. DID TWEAK MIN TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN THE
SHELTERED VALLEYS AND RURAL AREAS DUE TO A GOOD SETUP FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S IN
SHELTERED VALLEYS AND RURAL AREAS TO THE MIDDLE 40S IN DOWNTOWN
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST ON THURSDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRACKS TOWARD THE MID
WEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL INCREASE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON
THE BREEZY SIDE AND TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 60S AND 70S
AREA WIDE. STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS OF THE
BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THESE AREAS. PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VA AND SOUTHERN MD
COULD SEE AN ENHANCED FIRE THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO
BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS. PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES
INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA...WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WARM AIR AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. LIGHT PCPN WILL BE PSBL THRU THURS
NIGHT...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION. BETTER CHC FOR PCPN WILL COME DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT POSITIONED ACROSS CENTRAL PA AND TO THE
WEST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AS THE LLJ ALIGNS SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. WAA PUSHES 850MB TEMPS TO AROUND 10
DEGREES CELSIUS...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR
MOST OF THE AREA. THIS COMBINING WITH DEW PTS NEARING 60 SHOULD
RESULT IN SOME INSTABILITY...AS INDICATIVE ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NAM INDICATING CAPE VALUES AROUND 500
J/KG...AND SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40 KTS. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THE CHC FOR TSTM DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW THE BEST
CHC FOR ANY SVR WX LOOKS TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...BUT
WITH 850MB WINDS BETWEEN 40-60 KTS...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
THAT ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD BRING DOWN STRONGER WINDS.

THE COLD FRONT REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH
A SECOND LOW THEN LIFTING NORTH...EVENTUALLY DRAGGING THE FRONT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TO
BE THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT...SO WILL MAINTAIN POPS IN FOR THE
NIGHT...THOUGH WITH A DECREASING THUNDER THREAT. AS THE FRONT CLEARS
THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BRINGING ABOUT
DRY WX. CLOUDY CONDITIONS THOUGH STILL PSBL DURING THE DAY SAT AS
THE UPPER LVL TROUGH PIVOTS THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST PASSING NORTH
OF THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING. SHORT WAVE OFF THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST SATURDAY WILL TAKE THE SOUTHERN TRACK
INTO WEST TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE AREAS OF WEAK PVA IN ZONAL
FLOW WILL AFFECT THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE ON NORTHERN TRACK WILL PUSH INTO
CENTRAL VIRGINIA BEFORE STALLING TUESDAY. DYNAMICS SUPPORT INCREASED
CHANCES FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AT ALL TERMINAL
SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY DURING THURSDAY. WIND
SPEEDS IN THE 15-20 KTS RANGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS ARE
EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES.

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY THURS NIGHT...WITH PSBL MVFR CIGS MOVING
IN AFTER 06Z. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS LIKELY FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS. GUSTY WINDS PSBL WITH SOME OF THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND TSTMS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE FRI
NIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR SAT INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT BUT WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY OUT OF THE
SOUTH. SOUTHERLY CHANNELING WILL LEAD TO SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL THE
WATERS DURING THE DAY.

SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...THEN SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY AGAIN SATURDAY AS
NW WINDS INCREASE. SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS WILL BE PSBL FRI-FRI
NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHC FOR TSTMS LATE FRI AFTN/EVENING. SCA
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO MODERATE INTO THE 60S AND 70S AREA WIDE.
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AND HUMIDITIES LOOK TO BE MARGINAL THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE THREAT FOR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER IS LOW. WILL NOT ISSUE A WATCH AT THIS TIME. MORE
LIKELY TO SEE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED ON LATER SHIFTS
WITH THE FOCUS AREA OVER PORTIONS OF THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT...CENTRAL
VA AND SOUTHERN MD.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...BJL/KRW
SHORT TERM...BJL/SEARS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...BJL/CEM/SEARS/KRW
MARINE...BJL/CEM/SEARS/KRW
FIRE WEATHER...KRW



000
FXUS61 KLWX 020131
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
931 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL SETUP OVER THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND
REMAIN PLACE INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT...BUT IT
WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES. DID TWEAK MIN TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN THE
SHELTERED VALLEYS AND RURAL AREAS DUE TO A GOOD SETUP FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S IN
SHELTERED VALLEYS AND RURAL AREAS TO THE MIDDLE 40S IN DOWNTOWN
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST ON THURSDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRACKS TOWARD THE MID
WEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL INCREASE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON
THE BREEZY SIDE AND TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 60S AND 70S
AREA WIDE. STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS OF THE
BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THESE AREAS. PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VA AND SOUTHERN MD
COULD SEE AN ENHANCED FIRE THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO
BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS. PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES
INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA...WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WARM AIR AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. LIGHT PCPN WILL BE PSBL THRU THURS
NIGHT...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION. BETTER CHC FOR PCPN WILL COME DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT POSITIONED ACROSS CENTRAL PA AND TO THE
WEST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AS THE LLJ ALIGNS SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. WAA PUSHES 850MB TEMPS TO AROUND 10
DEGREES CELSIUS...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR
MOST OF THE AREA. THIS COMBINING WITH DEW PTS NEARING 60 SHOULD
RESULT IN SOME INSTABILITY...AS INDICATIVE ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NAM INDICATING CAPE VALUES AROUND 500
J/KG...AND SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40 KTS. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THE CHC FOR TSTM DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW THE BEST
CHC FOR ANY SVR WX LOOKS TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...BUT
WITH 850MB WINDS BETWEEN 40-60 KTS...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
THAT ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD BRING DOWN STRONGER WINDS.

THE COLD FRONT REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH
A SECOND LOW THEN LIFTING NORTH...EVENTUALLY DRAGGING THE FRONT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TO
BE THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT...SO WILL MAINTAIN POPS IN FOR THE
NIGHT...THOUGH WITH A DECREASING THUNDER THREAT. AS THE FRONT CLEARS
THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BRINGING ABOUT
DRY WX. CLOUDY CONDITIONS THOUGH STILL PSBL DURING THE DAY SAT AS
THE UPPER LVL TROUGH PIVOTS THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST PASSING NORTH
OF THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING. SHORT WAVE OFF THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST SATURDAY WILL TAKE THE SOUTHERN TRACK
INTO WEST TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE AREAS OF WEAK PVA IN ZONAL
FLOW WILL AFFECT THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE ON NORTHERN TRACK WILL PUSH INTO
CENTRAL VIRGINIA BEFORE STALLING TUESDAY. DYNAMICS SUPPORT INCREASED
CHANCES FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AT ALL TERMINAL
SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY DURING THURSDAY. WIND
SPEEDS IN THE 15-20 KTS RANGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS ARE
EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES.

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY THURS NIGHT...WITH PSBL MVFR CIGS MOVING
IN AFTER 06Z. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS LIKELY FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS. GUSTY WINDS PSBL WITH SOME OF THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND TSTMS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE FRI
NIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR SAT INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT BUT WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY OUT OF THE
SOUTH. SOUTHERLY CHANNELING WILL LEAD TO SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL THE
WATERS DURING THE DAY.

SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...THEN SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY AGAIN SATURDAY AS
NW WINDS INCREASE. SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS WILL BE PSBL FRI-FRI
NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHC FOR TSTMS LATE FRI AFTN/EVENING. SCA
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO MODERATE INTO THE 60S AND 70S AREA WIDE.
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AND HUMIDITIES LOOK TO BE MARGINAL THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE THREAT FOR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER IS LOW. WILL NOT ISSUE A WATCH AT THIS TIME. MORE
LIKELY TO SEE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED ON LATER SHIFTS
WITH THE FOCUS AREA OVER PORTIONS OF THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT...CENTRAL
VA AND SOUTHERN MD.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...BJL/KRW
SHORT TERM...BJL/SEARS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...BJL/CEM/SEARS/KRW
MARINE...BJL/CEM/SEARS/KRW
FIRE WEATHER...KRW


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020107
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
907 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...AND CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FROM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CLR SKIES AND LGHT WNDS RESULTING IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS
EVE AS TMPS HAVE DROPPED SOME 10-15 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS SINCE SS.
GIVEN THE CRNT DP TMPS...LOWS SHUD DROP INTO THE M30S MOST AREAS
XCPT L30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS ALONG THE RT 460 CORRIDOR
EAST OF PTB AND INLAND SECTIONS OF THE ERN SHORE.

A FROST ADSY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE ZONES THAT HAVE
STARTED THE GROWING SEASON TODAY (APRIL 1ST). THIS INCLUDES THE
NE NC COUNTIES FROM CHOWAN EAST TO THE ATLC COAST / CHESAPEAKE /
VA BEACH. KEPT NORFOLK AND COASTAL/OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK OUT OF
IT DUE TO SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS W/ A FEW KT OF WIND ANTICIPATED.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT COUNTIES IN THE ADSY ALONG THE SOUND AND
ALONG THE ATLC COAST (VA BEACH OCEANFRONT) WILL LIKELY BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER AND FROST IS UNLIKELY...JUST THAT WE DO NOT HAVE
THE ABILITY TO ISSUE POLYGON-BASED FROST ADVISORIES. PATCHY FROST
ALSO POSSIBLE FARTHER INLAND IN NC AND VA...BUT THESE ZONES DO NOT
START THE GROWING SEASON UNTIL APRIL 8TH OR LATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE BY MID/LATE THUS MORNING AND
A WX DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA
WILL BE WITHIN A WARMING AIRMASS AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP BY
THE AFTN. MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH AROUND 70 F UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE L/M60S AT THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

INCREASING CLOUDS THU NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE
COAST AND A MORE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. IN GENERAL...MODELS
RMN SLOWER AT BRINGING IN DEEP MOISTURE AND THE NRN STREAM AND
SRN STREAM ARE SLOWER TO PHASE. WILL CONT W/ HIGHEST POPS ON FRI
TO NNW 1/3RD OF FA BY EARLY FRI AM THROUGH FRI AFTN. VERY MILD
THU NIGHT IN SSW FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS...LOWS IN THE 50S TO
POSSIBLY AS WARM AS 60F IN A FEW SPOTS. WARM/VARIABLY CLOUDY FRI
WITH 20-30% CHC FOR -SHRA AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY TSTMS AS THE
SFC FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
M/U70S TO AROUND 80F (U60S/L70S ON THE ERN SHORE). MAIN RAIN
EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRI NIGHT...AS THE ACTUAL FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE CWA FROM NW TO SE FROM 06-12Z. NOT A LONG PERIOD
OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS FRONT HOWEVER...AND GIVEN SOME
CONTINUED MODEL DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE HIGH CHC RANGE FRI NIGHT...EXCEPT LIKELY ACRS THE
NORTH. LOWS FRI NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 50S. DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM NW
TO SE SAT MORNING...AND MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DRY AFTER 15Z. TEMPS
ALOFT COOL...BUT A DOWNSLOPE WNW FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS
MAINLY 60-65 F UNDER AFTN SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND INTO THE SERN
STATES/MID ATLANTIC REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...SLIDING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST BY SUN EVENING. ASIDE FROM SOME BREEZY NW WINDS
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST SAT NIGHT...THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL
EXPERIENCE RELATIVELY QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL BEGIN AT TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE ON
SUN (UPPER 50S TO LOW-MID 60S) AND THEN WARM 3-5 DEGREES EACH
CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S
(MID-UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST) BY TUE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
EXPERIENCE THE SAME GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S SAT NIGHT...WARMING ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES EACH NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 50S FORECAST FOR TUE NIGHT. TIMING VARIES
REGARDING WHEN THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR. THE GFS MODEL BRINGS INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE AREA MON EVENING THROUGH WED...WHILE THE ECMWF
MODEL DOES NOT BRING RAIN TO THE AREA UNTIL WED. WENT WITH A LONG
RANGE MODEL BLEND TO AVERAGE OUT RAIN CHANCES DURING THE
AFOREMENTIONED TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CALM TO LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH SLIPS OFF THE COAST FOR
THURSDAY WITH GUSTY S/SW WINDS BY MIDDAY. LOW DEW POINTS WILL PREVENT
FOG FORMATION FOR THURSDAY MORNING. A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS
INDICATED WITH ONLY SCT HIGH CLOUDS.

OUTLOOK...THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE A
DRY FORECAST IS IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FLAGS CANCELLED FOR SRN COASTAL WATERS NOW THAT SEAS ARE
FINALLY FALLING BELOW 5FT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT NLY WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND REMAIN LIGHT (AOB 10KT). HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
OFF THE COAST BY THU AFTN AND THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO
TIGHTEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BREEZY S WINDS BEGIN
TO INCREASE IN NRN WATERS THU AFTN AND THEN BECOME WIDESPREAD
ACROSS ALL WATERS BY THU EVENING. SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 15-20KT WITH
GUSTS OF 20-25KT (UP TO 30 KT IN NRN COASTAL WATERS). A NEW ROUND
OF SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NRN COASTAL WATERS FROM
FENWICK ISLAND TO PARRAMORE ISLAND AND ALL OF CHES BAY BEGINNING
THU AFTN THROUGH AT LEAST FRI AFTN. COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE
ISLAND TO THE VA/NC BORDER MAY BRIEFLY REACH SCA GUSTS OF 25KT THU
EVENING...BUT THE DURATION ANTICIPATED IS NOT LONG ENOUGH TO
JUSTIFY SCA FLAGS ATTM. WAVES WILL AVERAGE 2-3FT THU AFTN THROUGH
THU NIGHT. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3FT...BUILDING TO 3-5FT NRN COASTAL
WATERS THU EVENING.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS ON FRI AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
WINDS TIGHTEN FURTHER WITH SW WINDS AVERAGING 20KT WITH GUSTS OF
25-30KT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WAVES AVERAGE 3-4FT AND SEAS BUILD TO
3-5FT ALL COASTAL WATERS BY EARLY FRI EVENING. THE FRONT CROSSES
THE WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...RESULTING IN A QUICK
SURGE OF WINDS/SEAS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONDITIONS REMAIN
WELL-ROOTED IN SCA FLAGS ON SAT IN THE POST-FRONT ENVIRONMENT AS
WINDS/GUSTS BECOME NWLY AND SEAS AVERAGE 4-6FT NORTH OF CAPE
CHARLES AND 3-5FT SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES. ONGOING SCA FLAGS FROM
THU WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH SAT...AND ANY WATERS NOT
WITHIN SCA FLAGS WILL LIKELY BE IN THEM BY EARLY FRI MORNING
(BEGINNING ROUGHLY AROUND DAYBREAK). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE REGION BY SAT EVENING AND ALL CONDITIONS (WINDS/WAVES/SEAS)
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW SCA CRITERIA. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE WATERS SUN THROUGH EARLY MON WITH SLY WINDS REMAINING
AOB 15KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER THREAT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
25 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS DROPPING BETWEEN 20 TO 30
PERCENT ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ015>017-
     031-032.
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ097-098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THURSDAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...BMD/SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...BMD
FIRE WEATHER...AKQ



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020107
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
907 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...AND CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FROM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CLR SKIES AND LGHT WNDS RESULTING IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS
EVE AS TMPS HAVE DROPPED SOME 10-15 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS SINCE SS.
GIVEN THE CRNT DP TMPS...LOWS SHUD DROP INTO THE M30S MOST AREAS
XCPT L30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS ALONG THE RT 460 CORRIDOR
EAST OF PTB AND INLAND SECTIONS OF THE ERN SHORE.

A FROST ADSY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE ZONES THAT HAVE
STARTED THE GROWING SEASON TODAY (APRIL 1ST). THIS INCLUDES THE
NE NC COUNTIES FROM CHOWAN EAST TO THE ATLC COAST / CHESAPEAKE /
VA BEACH. KEPT NORFOLK AND COASTAL/OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK OUT OF
IT DUE TO SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS W/ A FEW KT OF WIND ANTICIPATED.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT COUNTIES IN THE ADSY ALONG THE SOUND AND
ALONG THE ATLC COAST (VA BEACH OCEANFRONT) WILL LIKELY BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER AND FROST IS UNLIKELY...JUST THAT WE DO NOT HAVE
THE ABILITY TO ISSUE POLYGON-BASED FROST ADVISORIES. PATCHY FROST
ALSO POSSIBLE FARTHER INLAND IN NC AND VA...BUT THESE ZONES DO NOT
START THE GROWING SEASON UNTIL APRIL 8TH OR LATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE BY MID/LATE THUS MORNING AND
A WX DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA
WILL BE WITHIN A WARMING AIRMASS AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP BY
THE AFTN. MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH AROUND 70 F UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE L/M60S AT THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

INCREASING CLOUDS THU NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE
COAST AND A MORE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. IN GENERAL...MODELS
RMN SLOWER AT BRINGING IN DEEP MOISTURE AND THE NRN STREAM AND
SRN STREAM ARE SLOWER TO PHASE. WILL CONT W/ HIGHEST POPS ON FRI
TO NNW 1/3RD OF FA BY EARLY FRI AM THROUGH FRI AFTN. VERY MILD
THU NIGHT IN SSW FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS...LOWS IN THE 50S TO
POSSIBLY AS WARM AS 60F IN A FEW SPOTS. WARM/VARIABLY CLOUDY FRI
WITH 20-30% CHC FOR -SHRA AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY TSTMS AS THE
SFC FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
M/U70S TO AROUND 80F (U60S/L70S ON THE ERN SHORE). MAIN RAIN
EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRI NIGHT...AS THE ACTUAL FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE CWA FROM NW TO SE FROM 06-12Z. NOT A LONG PERIOD
OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS FRONT HOWEVER...AND GIVEN SOME
CONTINUED MODEL DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE HIGH CHC RANGE FRI NIGHT...EXCEPT LIKELY ACRS THE
NORTH. LOWS FRI NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 50S. DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM NW
TO SE SAT MORNING...AND MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DRY AFTER 15Z. TEMPS
ALOFT COOL...BUT A DOWNSLOPE WNW FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS
MAINLY 60-65 F UNDER AFTN SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND INTO THE SERN
STATES/MID ATLANTIC REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...SLIDING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST BY SUN EVENING. ASIDE FROM SOME BREEZY NW WINDS
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST SAT NIGHT...THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL
EXPERIENCE RELATIVELY QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL BEGIN AT TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE ON
SUN (UPPER 50S TO LOW-MID 60S) AND THEN WARM 3-5 DEGREES EACH
CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S
(MID-UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST) BY TUE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
EXPERIENCE THE SAME GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S SAT NIGHT...WARMING ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES EACH NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 50S FORECAST FOR TUE NIGHT. TIMING VARIES
REGARDING WHEN THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR. THE GFS MODEL BRINGS INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE AREA MON EVENING THROUGH WED...WHILE THE ECMWF
MODEL DOES NOT BRING RAIN TO THE AREA UNTIL WED. WENT WITH A LONG
RANGE MODEL BLEND TO AVERAGE OUT RAIN CHANCES DURING THE
AFOREMENTIONED TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CALM TO LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH SLIPS OFF THE COAST FOR
THURSDAY WITH GUSTY S/SW WINDS BY MIDDAY. LOW DEW POINTS WILL PREVENT
FOG FORMATION FOR THURSDAY MORNING. A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS
INDICATED WITH ONLY SCT HIGH CLOUDS.

OUTLOOK...THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE A
DRY FORECAST IS IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FLAGS CANCELLED FOR SRN COASTAL WATERS NOW THAT SEAS ARE
FINALLY FALLING BELOW 5FT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT NLY WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND REMAIN LIGHT (AOB 10KT). HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
OFF THE COAST BY THU AFTN AND THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO
TIGHTEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BREEZY S WINDS BEGIN
TO INCREASE IN NRN WATERS THU AFTN AND THEN BECOME WIDESPREAD
ACROSS ALL WATERS BY THU EVENING. SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 15-20KT WITH
GUSTS OF 20-25KT (UP TO 30 KT IN NRN COASTAL WATERS). A NEW ROUND
OF SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NRN COASTAL WATERS FROM
FENWICK ISLAND TO PARRAMORE ISLAND AND ALL OF CHES BAY BEGINNING
THU AFTN THROUGH AT LEAST FRI AFTN. COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE
ISLAND TO THE VA/NC BORDER MAY BRIEFLY REACH SCA GUSTS OF 25KT THU
EVENING...BUT THE DURATION ANTICIPATED IS NOT LONG ENOUGH TO
JUSTIFY SCA FLAGS ATTM. WAVES WILL AVERAGE 2-3FT THU AFTN THROUGH
THU NIGHT. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3FT...BUILDING TO 3-5FT NRN COASTAL
WATERS THU EVENING.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS ON FRI AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
WINDS TIGHTEN FURTHER WITH SW WINDS AVERAGING 20KT WITH GUSTS OF
25-30KT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WAVES AVERAGE 3-4FT AND SEAS BUILD TO
3-5FT ALL COASTAL WATERS BY EARLY FRI EVENING. THE FRONT CROSSES
THE WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...RESULTING IN A QUICK
SURGE OF WINDS/SEAS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONDITIONS REMAIN
WELL-ROOTED IN SCA FLAGS ON SAT IN THE POST-FRONT ENVIRONMENT AS
WINDS/GUSTS BECOME NWLY AND SEAS AVERAGE 4-6FT NORTH OF CAPE
CHARLES AND 3-5FT SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES. ONGOING SCA FLAGS FROM
THU WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH SAT...AND ANY WATERS NOT
WITHIN SCA FLAGS WILL LIKELY BE IN THEM BY EARLY FRI MORNING
(BEGINNING ROUGHLY AROUND DAYBREAK). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE REGION BY SAT EVENING AND ALL CONDITIONS (WINDS/WAVES/SEAS)
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW SCA CRITERIA. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE WATERS SUN THROUGH EARLY MON WITH SLY WINDS REMAINING
AOB 15KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER THREAT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
25 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS DROPPING BETWEEN 20 TO 30
PERCENT ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ015>017-
     031-032.
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ097-098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THURSDAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...BMD/SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...BMD
FIRE WEATHER...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KPHI 020104
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
904 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FRIDAY, WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY,
WHILE A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FRONT MAY
STALL NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH SEVERAL
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE SKY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR FOR TONIGHT. THE WIND
IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR TONIGHT AS THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH PASSES OVER OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP DUE TO THE NEARLY IDEAL RADIATING CONDITIONS. WE
ARE FORECASTING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S WITH SOME READINGS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S
POSSIBLE UP NORTH DUE TO THE SNOW COVER.

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FCST ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING FARTHER OUT TO SEA
ON THURSDAY. THE AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PASS
OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY
MORNING, OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DURING
THE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

A STIFF SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH BREEZE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
15 TO 20 MPH FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. THE
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH FLOW WILL DRAW MILD AIR INTO OUR REGION. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE 60S IN MUCH OF OUR
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT, SETTING UP THE
BEGINNING OF A WET PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT DOES NOT
LOOK TO MAKE IT FULLY INTO OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AS IT MAY STALL
JUST TO OUR NORTH, WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT, FINALLY PULLING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SEVERAL VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL BE
TRAVERSING THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, WHICH WILL LEAD TO
SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE
REMAINS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS A PORTION OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM, SO WE WILL KEEP A MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONG
INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER, IF THUNDERSTORMS DO OCCUR, THEY COULD
PRODUCE SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS. ACTUALLY, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
FRIDAY MAY BE A GUSTY DAY IN GENERAL DUE TO THE SYNOPTIC PRESSURE
GRADIENT. AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA TO CHANGE
THE RAIN OVER TO SNOW FOR A PERIOD ACROSS THE POCONOS.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MOVED PAST THE AREA BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY,
BUT WE EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO END THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS
THE LOW MOVES WELL TO OUR NORTH, STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA, LEADING TO A GUSTY DAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH.
THE STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD BEGIN TO DROP OFF OVERNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRONT THE NORTH, BUT
MAY NOT FULLY MAKE IT ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONT MAY STALL JUST TO
THE NORTH. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN LIFT TO OUR NORTHEAST
EARLY MONDAY WHEN THE FRONT MAY FINALLY PUSH ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER, THIS IS WHEN THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITH THE LONG TERM
MODELS. THE GFS ENDS UP LIFTING THIS FRONT BACK NORTHWARD MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BEFORE PROGRESSIVELY MOVING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OUT OF THE MID-WEST AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA FOR
MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY, BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE DIFFERENCE IN MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE FACT ITS STILL PRETTY
FAR OUT, WE`VE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE WHICH MORE CLOSELY
RESEMBLES THE ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES. THAT BEING SAID, THE EARLY TO
MID PART OF NEXT WEEK COULD BE UNSETTLED.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY.

LIGHT WIND IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THURSDAY. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS
WITH SHOWERS LIKELY; THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS 20-30 KNOTS FRIDAY.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KNOTS
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TONIGHT. A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME VARIABLE AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ON
THURSDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW WELL THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MIX WITH THE MILD AIR PASSING OVER THE VERY CHILLY
WATER. IT IS LIKELY THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT REACH THEIR FULL
POTENTIAL.

WE WILL BEGIN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT 200 PM THURSDAY. ADMITTEDLY,
WE MAY BE A LITTLE EARLY FOR MOST OF OUR MARINE AREA. HOWEVER, NEAR
SHORE GUSTS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH 25 KNOTS AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
THAT TIME.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AFFECT THE AREA AND MOVE THROUGH.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...WINDS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE ARE FORECASTING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND INCREASING TO 15 TO
20 MPH FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH
AT THAT TIME. ALSO, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
AROUND 30 PERCENT AND FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE.

THERE MAY BE AN ENHANCED THREAT OF WILDFIRE SPREAD ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, EXCEPT FOR THOSE AREAS THAT STILL HAVE SNOW COVER. WE
WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY SPECIAL FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER, WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 020104
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
904 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FRIDAY, WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY,
WHILE A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FRONT MAY
STALL NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH SEVERAL
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE SKY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR FOR TONIGHT. THE WIND
IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR TONIGHT AS THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH PASSES OVER OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP DUE TO THE NEARLY IDEAL RADIATING CONDITIONS. WE
ARE FORECASTING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S WITH SOME READINGS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S
POSSIBLE UP NORTH DUE TO THE SNOW COVER.

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FCST ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING FARTHER OUT TO SEA
ON THURSDAY. THE AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PASS
OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY
MORNING, OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DURING
THE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

A STIFF SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH BREEZE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
15 TO 20 MPH FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. THE
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH FLOW WILL DRAW MILD AIR INTO OUR REGION. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE 60S IN MUCH OF OUR
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT, SETTING UP THE
BEGINNING OF A WET PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT DOES NOT
LOOK TO MAKE IT FULLY INTO OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AS IT MAY STALL
JUST TO OUR NORTH, WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT, FINALLY PULLING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SEVERAL VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL BE
TRAVERSING THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, WHICH WILL LEAD TO
SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE
REMAINS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS A PORTION OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM, SO WE WILL KEEP A MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONG
INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER, IF THUNDERSTORMS DO OCCUR, THEY COULD
PRODUCE SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS. ACTUALLY, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
FRIDAY MAY BE A GUSTY DAY IN GENERAL DUE TO THE SYNOPTIC PRESSURE
GRADIENT. AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA TO CHANGE
THE RAIN OVER TO SNOW FOR A PERIOD ACROSS THE POCONOS.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MOVED PAST THE AREA BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY,
BUT WE EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO END THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS
THE LOW MOVES WELL TO OUR NORTH, STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA, LEADING TO A GUSTY DAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH.
THE STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD BEGIN TO DROP OFF OVERNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRONT THE NORTH, BUT
MAY NOT FULLY MAKE IT ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONT MAY STALL JUST TO
THE NORTH. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN LIFT TO OUR NORTHEAST
EARLY MONDAY WHEN THE FRONT MAY FINALLY PUSH ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER, THIS IS WHEN THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITH THE LONG TERM
MODELS. THE GFS ENDS UP LIFTING THIS FRONT BACK NORTHWARD MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BEFORE PROGRESSIVELY MOVING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OUT OF THE MID-WEST AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA FOR
MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY, BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE DIFFERENCE IN MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE FACT ITS STILL PRETTY
FAR OUT, WE`VE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE WHICH MORE CLOSELY
RESEMBLES THE ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES. THAT BEING SAID, THE EARLY TO
MID PART OF NEXT WEEK COULD BE UNSETTLED.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY.

LIGHT WIND IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THURSDAY. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS
WITH SHOWERS LIKELY; THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS 20-30 KNOTS FRIDAY.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KNOTS
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TONIGHT. A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME VARIABLE AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ON
THURSDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW WELL THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MIX WITH THE MILD AIR PASSING OVER THE VERY CHILLY
WATER. IT IS LIKELY THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT REACH THEIR FULL
POTENTIAL.

WE WILL BEGIN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT 200 PM THURSDAY. ADMITTEDLY,
WE MAY BE A LITTLE EARLY FOR MOST OF OUR MARINE AREA. HOWEVER, NEAR
SHORE GUSTS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH 25 KNOTS AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
THAT TIME.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AFFECT THE AREA AND MOVE THROUGH.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...WINDS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE ARE FORECASTING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND INCREASING TO 15 TO
20 MPH FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH
AT THAT TIME. ALSO, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
AROUND 30 PERCENT AND FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE.

THERE MAY BE AN ENHANCED THREAT OF WILDFIRE SPREAD ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, EXCEPT FOR THOSE AREAS THAT STILL HAVE SNOW COVER. WE
WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY SPECIAL FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER, WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 020104
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
904 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FRIDAY, WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY,
WHILE A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FRONT MAY
STALL NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH SEVERAL
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE SKY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR FOR TONIGHT. THE WIND
IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR TONIGHT AS THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH PASSES OVER OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP DUE TO THE NEARLY IDEAL RADIATING CONDITIONS. WE
ARE FORECASTING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S WITH SOME READINGS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S
POSSIBLE UP NORTH DUE TO THE SNOW COVER.

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FCST ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING FARTHER OUT TO SEA
ON THURSDAY. THE AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PASS
OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY
MORNING, OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DURING
THE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

A STIFF SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH BREEZE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
15 TO 20 MPH FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. THE
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH FLOW WILL DRAW MILD AIR INTO OUR REGION. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE 60S IN MUCH OF OUR
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT, SETTING UP THE
BEGINNING OF A WET PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT DOES NOT
LOOK TO MAKE IT FULLY INTO OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AS IT MAY STALL
JUST TO OUR NORTH, WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT, FINALLY PULLING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SEVERAL VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL BE
TRAVERSING THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, WHICH WILL LEAD TO
SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE
REMAINS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS A PORTION OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM, SO WE WILL KEEP A MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONG
INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER, IF THUNDERSTORMS DO OCCUR, THEY COULD
PRODUCE SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS. ACTUALLY, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
FRIDAY MAY BE A GUSTY DAY IN GENERAL DUE TO THE SYNOPTIC PRESSURE
GRADIENT. AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA TO CHANGE
THE RAIN OVER TO SNOW FOR A PERIOD ACROSS THE POCONOS.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MOVED PAST THE AREA BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY,
BUT WE EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO END THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS
THE LOW MOVES WELL TO OUR NORTH, STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA, LEADING TO A GUSTY DAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH.
THE STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD BEGIN TO DROP OFF OVERNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRONT THE NORTH, BUT
MAY NOT FULLY MAKE IT ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONT MAY STALL JUST TO
THE NORTH. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN LIFT TO OUR NORTHEAST
EARLY MONDAY WHEN THE FRONT MAY FINALLY PUSH ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER, THIS IS WHEN THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITH THE LONG TERM
MODELS. THE GFS ENDS UP LIFTING THIS FRONT BACK NORTHWARD MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BEFORE PROGRESSIVELY MOVING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OUT OF THE MID-WEST AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA FOR
MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY, BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE DIFFERENCE IN MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE FACT ITS STILL PRETTY
FAR OUT, WE`VE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE WHICH MORE CLOSELY
RESEMBLES THE ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES. THAT BEING SAID, THE EARLY TO
MID PART OF NEXT WEEK COULD BE UNSETTLED.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY.

LIGHT WIND IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THURSDAY. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS
WITH SHOWERS LIKELY; THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS 20-30 KNOTS FRIDAY.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KNOTS
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TONIGHT. A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME VARIABLE AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ON
THURSDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW WELL THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MIX WITH THE MILD AIR PASSING OVER THE VERY CHILLY
WATER. IT IS LIKELY THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT REACH THEIR FULL
POTENTIAL.

WE WILL BEGIN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT 200 PM THURSDAY. ADMITTEDLY,
WE MAY BE A LITTLE EARLY FOR MOST OF OUR MARINE AREA. HOWEVER, NEAR
SHORE GUSTS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH 25 KNOTS AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
THAT TIME.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AFFECT THE AREA AND MOVE THROUGH.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...WINDS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE ARE FORECASTING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND INCREASING TO 15 TO
20 MPH FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH
AT THAT TIME. ALSO, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
AROUND 30 PERCENT AND FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE.

THERE MAY BE AN ENHANCED THREAT OF WILDFIRE SPREAD ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, EXCEPT FOR THOSE AREAS THAT STILL HAVE SNOW COVER. WE
WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY SPECIAL FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER, WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 020104
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
904 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FRIDAY, WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY,
WHILE A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FRONT MAY
STALL NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH SEVERAL
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE SKY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR FOR TONIGHT. THE WIND
IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR TONIGHT AS THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH PASSES OVER OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP DUE TO THE NEARLY IDEAL RADIATING CONDITIONS. WE
ARE FORECASTING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S WITH SOME READINGS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S
POSSIBLE UP NORTH DUE TO THE SNOW COVER.

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FCST ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING FARTHER OUT TO SEA
ON THURSDAY. THE AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PASS
OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY
MORNING, OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DURING
THE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

A STIFF SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH BREEZE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
15 TO 20 MPH FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. THE
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH FLOW WILL DRAW MILD AIR INTO OUR REGION. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE 60S IN MUCH OF OUR
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT, SETTING UP THE
BEGINNING OF A WET PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT DOES NOT
LOOK TO MAKE IT FULLY INTO OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AS IT MAY STALL
JUST TO OUR NORTH, WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT, FINALLY PULLING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SEVERAL VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL BE
TRAVERSING THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, WHICH WILL LEAD TO
SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE
REMAINS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS A PORTION OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM, SO WE WILL KEEP A MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONG
INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER, IF THUNDERSTORMS DO OCCUR, THEY COULD
PRODUCE SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS. ACTUALLY, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
FRIDAY MAY BE A GUSTY DAY IN GENERAL DUE TO THE SYNOPTIC PRESSURE
GRADIENT. AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA TO CHANGE
THE RAIN OVER TO SNOW FOR A PERIOD ACROSS THE POCONOS.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MOVED PAST THE AREA BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY,
BUT WE EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO END THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS
THE LOW MOVES WELL TO OUR NORTH, STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA, LEADING TO A GUSTY DAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH.
THE STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD BEGIN TO DROP OFF OVERNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRONT THE NORTH, BUT
MAY NOT FULLY MAKE IT ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONT MAY STALL JUST TO
THE NORTH. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN LIFT TO OUR NORTHEAST
EARLY MONDAY WHEN THE FRONT MAY FINALLY PUSH ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER, THIS IS WHEN THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITH THE LONG TERM
MODELS. THE GFS ENDS UP LIFTING THIS FRONT BACK NORTHWARD MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BEFORE PROGRESSIVELY MOVING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OUT OF THE MID-WEST AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA FOR
MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY, BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE DIFFERENCE IN MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE FACT ITS STILL PRETTY
FAR OUT, WE`VE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE WHICH MORE CLOSELY
RESEMBLES THE ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES. THAT BEING SAID, THE EARLY TO
MID PART OF NEXT WEEK COULD BE UNSETTLED.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY.

LIGHT WIND IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THURSDAY. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS
WITH SHOWERS LIKELY; THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS 20-30 KNOTS FRIDAY.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KNOTS
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TONIGHT. A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME VARIABLE AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ON
THURSDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW WELL THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MIX WITH THE MILD AIR PASSING OVER THE VERY CHILLY
WATER. IT IS LIKELY THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT REACH THEIR FULL
POTENTIAL.

WE WILL BEGIN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT 200 PM THURSDAY. ADMITTEDLY,
WE MAY BE A LITTLE EARLY FOR MOST OF OUR MARINE AREA. HOWEVER, NEAR
SHORE GUSTS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH 25 KNOTS AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
THAT TIME.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AFFECT THE AREA AND MOVE THROUGH.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...WINDS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE ARE FORECASTING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND INCREASING TO 15 TO
20 MPH FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH
AT THAT TIME. ALSO, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
AROUND 30 PERCENT AND FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE.

THERE MAY BE AN ENHANCED THREAT OF WILDFIRE SPREAD ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, EXCEPT FOR THOSE AREAS THAT STILL HAVE SNOW COVER. WE
WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY SPECIAL FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER, WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 020104
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
904 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FRIDAY, WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY,
WHILE A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FRONT MAY
STALL NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH SEVERAL
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE SKY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR FOR TONIGHT. THE WIND
IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR TONIGHT AS THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH PASSES OVER OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP DUE TO THE NEARLY IDEAL RADIATING CONDITIONS. WE
ARE FORECASTING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S WITH SOME READINGS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S
POSSIBLE UP NORTH DUE TO THE SNOW COVER.

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FCST ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING FARTHER OUT TO SEA
ON THURSDAY. THE AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PASS
OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY
MORNING, OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DURING
THE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

A STIFF SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH BREEZE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
15 TO 20 MPH FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. THE
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH FLOW WILL DRAW MILD AIR INTO OUR REGION. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE 60S IN MUCH OF OUR
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT, SETTING UP THE
BEGINNING OF A WET PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT DOES NOT
LOOK TO MAKE IT FULLY INTO OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AS IT MAY STALL
JUST TO OUR NORTH, WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT, FINALLY PULLING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SEVERAL VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL BE
TRAVERSING THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, WHICH WILL LEAD TO
SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE
REMAINS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS A PORTION OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM, SO WE WILL KEEP A MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONG
INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER, IF THUNDERSTORMS DO OCCUR, THEY COULD
PRODUCE SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS. ACTUALLY, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
FRIDAY MAY BE A GUSTY DAY IN GENERAL DUE TO THE SYNOPTIC PRESSURE
GRADIENT. AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA TO CHANGE
THE RAIN OVER TO SNOW FOR A PERIOD ACROSS THE POCONOS.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MOVED PAST THE AREA BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY,
BUT WE EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO END THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS
THE LOW MOVES WELL TO OUR NORTH, STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA, LEADING TO A GUSTY DAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH.
THE STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD BEGIN TO DROP OFF OVERNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRONT THE NORTH, BUT
MAY NOT FULLY MAKE IT ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONT MAY STALL JUST TO
THE NORTH. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN LIFT TO OUR NORTHEAST
EARLY MONDAY WHEN THE FRONT MAY FINALLY PUSH ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER, THIS IS WHEN THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITH THE LONG TERM
MODELS. THE GFS ENDS UP LIFTING THIS FRONT BACK NORTHWARD MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BEFORE PROGRESSIVELY MOVING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OUT OF THE MID-WEST AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA FOR
MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY, BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE DIFFERENCE IN MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE FACT ITS STILL PRETTY
FAR OUT, WE`VE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE WHICH MORE CLOSELY
RESEMBLES THE ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES. THAT BEING SAID, THE EARLY TO
MID PART OF NEXT WEEK COULD BE UNSETTLED.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY.

LIGHT WIND IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THURSDAY. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS
WITH SHOWERS LIKELY; THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS 20-30 KNOTS FRIDAY.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KNOTS
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TONIGHT. A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME VARIABLE AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ON
THURSDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW WELL THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MIX WITH THE MILD AIR PASSING OVER THE VERY CHILLY
WATER. IT IS LIKELY THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT REACH THEIR FULL
POTENTIAL.

WE WILL BEGIN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT 200 PM THURSDAY. ADMITTEDLY,
WE MAY BE A LITTLE EARLY FOR MOST OF OUR MARINE AREA. HOWEVER, NEAR
SHORE GUSTS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH 25 KNOTS AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
THAT TIME.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AFFECT THE AREA AND MOVE THROUGH.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...WINDS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE ARE FORECASTING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND INCREASING TO 15 TO
20 MPH FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH
AT THAT TIME. ALSO, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
AROUND 30 PERCENT AND FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE.

THERE MAY BE AN ENHANCED THREAT OF WILDFIRE SPREAD ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, EXCEPT FOR THOSE AREAS THAT STILL HAVE SNOW COVER. WE
WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY SPECIAL FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER, WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020012 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
812 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER TONIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARM THURSDAY WITH
INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
815PM UPDATE...PREVIOUS FORECAST IN LINE. ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO
OVERNIGHT TEMPS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE IS IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING TO THE EAST AT PRESENT.
WHAT WAS A MORE SOLID DECK OF STRATUS/STRATOCU HAS LIFTED AND
BROKEN UP INTO MAINLY HIGH CU OR LOW AC. THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE
OUT/BREAK UP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...LEADING
TO A MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS H500 RIDGE AXIS ARRIVES BY
12Z. WITH SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFF TO THE EAST...SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO
KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER STIRRED AND KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
OFF TOO FAR. TRIED TO LEAN AT OR A TOUCH ABOVE THE MODEL CONSENSUS
FOR LOW TEMPS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION INCREASE ON THURSDAY WITH H850
TEMPS CLIMBING TO +9/+10 DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP
DRIVE TEMPERATURES AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND HAVE HIGH
TEMPS NEAR THE TOP END OF GUIDANCE. PIT HAS A CHANCE TO REACH 70
DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE LAST NOVEMBER 11. THIS IS IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEM...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM
A CANADIAN LOW. EXPECTING THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO ARRIVE
TOWARDS AND AFTER SUNSET FROM THE WEST...AND DO HAVE LIKELY POPS
HERE BY 00Z. HOWEVER...SOME MEAGER INSTABILITY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
MAY POP SOME SHRA FROM LATE MORNING ON. ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR A SEVERE WEATHER
CONCERN. DESPITE THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
NOT SUGGESTING VERY DEEP MIXING...WHICH WOULD KEEP 50+ KNOT H850
WINDS LOCKED UP ALOFT. DO EXPECT SOME 25-30 KNOT GUSTS AT THE
SURFACE BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY. QPF THROUGH 00Z SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW A QUARTER INCH IN GENERAL...WITH THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
RAIN TO FOLLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT IS STILL FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES RIDE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...BRINGING
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS. THE LAST...AND MOST SIGNIFICANT WAVE THAT WILL
HELP PUSH THE FRONT TO THE EAST WILL COME LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.
WHILE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE PRESENT...AS SUGGESTED
IN THE MODEL WITH PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 1.00 INCH AND THE 1 TO
2 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS PROGGED AREAWIDE...THE LONG DURATION OF
THE EVENT SHOULD HELP TO MINIMIZE WATER PROBLEMS. HOWEVER...IF
THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...HEAVIER
RAINFALL COULD CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES. AT THIS
TIME...WILL NOT ADD ANY CONCERN FOR THIS IN THE HWO WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE FRONT AND SURFACE WAVE EXITING. A
BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS THE PRECIP ENDS. ANY
REMAINING PRECIP CHANCES...MAINLY NE OF PIT...SHOULD DIMINISH BY
AFTERNOON.

GENERALLY KEPT A COMPROMISE OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND TO LESSER EXTENT
THE NAM AND SREF FOR THE FORECAST WITH MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO
POPS AND TEMPERATURES FROM THE LAST SHIFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A TRAILING SHORTWAVE IS STILL PROGGED TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS
ALONG A SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE
SITUATION...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE...SO SLIGHT...TO CHANCE POPS WERE CONFINED TO
NORTHERN COUNTIES.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO NEAR...THEN ABOVE
THE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS IN RESPONSE TO WESTERN STATES TROUGHING.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL RISE AS THE WEEK AND TROUGH PROGRESS.

THE LONG TERM PROGNOSIS WAS PRIMARILY BASED ON ADJUSTED WPC
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT UNDER SURFACE
RIDGES. RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST AHEAD OF APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM
THURSDAY WITH MID DECK ARRIVING BEFORE 12Z WESTERN PORTS WITH
WINDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KTS AND BECOMING
GUSTY. LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR WITH SCT SHOWERS FROM LATE MORNING
WEST SPREADING EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THUNDER POSSIBLE WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT AS COVERAGE
AND TIMING IN DOUBT.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED WITH COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020012 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
812 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER TONIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARM THURSDAY WITH
INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
815PM UPDATE...PREVIOUS FORECAST IN LINE. ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO
OVERNIGHT TEMPS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE IS IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING TO THE EAST AT PRESENT.
WHAT WAS A MORE SOLID DECK OF STRATUS/STRATOCU HAS LIFTED AND
BROKEN UP INTO MAINLY HIGH CU OR LOW AC. THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE
OUT/BREAK UP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...LEADING
TO A MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS H500 RIDGE AXIS ARRIVES BY
12Z. WITH SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFF TO THE EAST...SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO
KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER STIRRED AND KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
OFF TOO FAR. TRIED TO LEAN AT OR A TOUCH ABOVE THE MODEL CONSENSUS
FOR LOW TEMPS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION INCREASE ON THURSDAY WITH H850
TEMPS CLIMBING TO +9/+10 DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP
DRIVE TEMPERATURES AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND HAVE HIGH
TEMPS NEAR THE TOP END OF GUIDANCE. PIT HAS A CHANCE TO REACH 70
DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE LAST NOVEMBER 11. THIS IS IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEM...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM
A CANADIAN LOW. EXPECTING THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO ARRIVE
TOWARDS AND AFTER SUNSET FROM THE WEST...AND DO HAVE LIKELY POPS
HERE BY 00Z. HOWEVER...SOME MEAGER INSTABILITY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
MAY POP SOME SHRA FROM LATE MORNING ON. ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR A SEVERE WEATHER
CONCERN. DESPITE THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
NOT SUGGESTING VERY DEEP MIXING...WHICH WOULD KEEP 50+ KNOT H850
WINDS LOCKED UP ALOFT. DO EXPECT SOME 25-30 KNOT GUSTS AT THE
SURFACE BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY. QPF THROUGH 00Z SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW A QUARTER INCH IN GENERAL...WITH THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
RAIN TO FOLLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT IS STILL FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES RIDE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...BRINGING
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS. THE LAST...AND MOST SIGNIFICANT WAVE THAT WILL
HELP PUSH THE FRONT TO THE EAST WILL COME LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.
WHILE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE PRESENT...AS SUGGESTED
IN THE MODEL WITH PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 1.00 INCH AND THE 1 TO
2 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS PROGGED AREAWIDE...THE LONG DURATION OF
THE EVENT SHOULD HELP TO MINIMIZE WATER PROBLEMS. HOWEVER...IF
THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...HEAVIER
RAINFALL COULD CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES. AT THIS
TIME...WILL NOT ADD ANY CONCERN FOR THIS IN THE HWO WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE FRONT AND SURFACE WAVE EXITING. A
BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS THE PRECIP ENDS. ANY
REMAINING PRECIP CHANCES...MAINLY NE OF PIT...SHOULD DIMINISH BY
AFTERNOON.

GENERALLY KEPT A COMPROMISE OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND TO LESSER EXTENT
THE NAM AND SREF FOR THE FORECAST WITH MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO
POPS AND TEMPERATURES FROM THE LAST SHIFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A TRAILING SHORTWAVE IS STILL PROGGED TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS
ALONG A SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE
SITUATION...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE...SO SLIGHT...TO CHANCE POPS WERE CONFINED TO
NORTHERN COUNTIES.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO NEAR...THEN ABOVE
THE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS IN RESPONSE TO WESTERN STATES TROUGHING.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL RISE AS THE WEEK AND TROUGH PROGRESS.

THE LONG TERM PROGNOSIS WAS PRIMARILY BASED ON ADJUSTED WPC
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT UNDER SURFACE
RIDGES. RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST AHEAD OF APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM
THURSDAY WITH MID DECK ARRIVING BEFORE 12Z WESTERN PORTS WITH
WINDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KTS AND BECOMING
GUSTY. LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR WITH SCT SHOWERS FROM LATE MORNING
WEST SPREADING EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THUNDER POSSIBLE WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT AS COVERAGE
AND TIMING IN DOUBT.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED WITH COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020004
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
804 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...AND CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FROM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~1022 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM
THE ERN GREAT LAKES SSE TO SE VA AND ERN NC. DRY...BUT MUCH COOLER
DAY THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES AVG IN THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S MOST AREAS WELL INLAND...WITH SOME LOCATIONS AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AS COOL AS THE UPPER 40S. DRY AIRMASS WITH DEW PTS
MAINLY IN THE 20S. UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING CENTERED OVER SE VA AND ERN NC...EXPECT COLDEST
TEMPERATURES TO RESIDE E OF I-95. LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST ON THE
COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE...IN THE LOWER-MID 30S FOR INTERIOR SE VA/NE
NC...MID 30S TO AROUND 40 F ELSEWHERE.

HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADSY FOR MOST OF THE ZONES THAT HAVE STARTED
THE GROWING SEASON AS OF TODAY (APRIL 1ST). THIS INCLUDES THE NE
NC COUNTIES FROM CHOWAN EAST TO THE ATLC COAST...AND CHESAPEAKE/VA
BEACH. LEFT NORFOLK AND COASTAL/OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK OUT OF IT
DUE TO SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS W/ A FEW KT OF WIND ANTICIPATED. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT COUNTIES IN THE ADSY ALONG THE SOUND AND
ALONG THE ATLC COAST (VA BEACH OCEANFRONT) WILL LIKELY BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER AND FROST IS UNLIKELY...JUST THAT WE DO NOT HAVE
THE ABILITY TO ISSUE POLYGON- BASED FROST ADVISORIES. PATCHY FROST
ALSO POSSIBLE FARTHER INLAND IN NC AND VA...BUT THESE ZONES DO NOT
START THE GROWING SEASON UNTIL APRIL 8TH OR LATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE BY MID/LATE THUS MORNING AND
A WX DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA
WILL BE WITHIN A WARMING AIRMASS AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP BY
THE AFTN. MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH AROUND 70 F UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE L/M60S AT THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

INCREASING CLOUDS THU NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE
COAST AND A MORE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. IN GENERAL...MODELS
RMN SLOWER AT BRINGING IN DEEP MOISTURE AND THE NRN STREAM AND
SRN STREAM ARE SLOWER TO PHASE. WILL CONT W/ HIGHEST POPS ON FRI
TO NNW 1/3RD OF FA BY EARLY FRI AM THROUGH FRI AFTN. VERY MILD
THU NIGHT IN SSW FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS...LOWS IN THE 50S TO
POSSIBLY AS WARM AS 60F IN A FEW SPOTS. WARM/VARIABLY CLOUDY FRI
WITH 20-30% CHC FOR -SHRA AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY TSTMS AS THE
SFC FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
M/U70S TO AROUND 80F (U60S/L70S ON THE ERN SHORE). MAIN RAIN
EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRI NIGHT...AS THE ACTUAL FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE CWA FROM NW TO SE FROM 06-12Z. NOT A LONG PERIOD
OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS FRONT HOWEVER...AND GIVEN SOME
CONTINUED MODEL DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE HIGH CHC RANGE FRI NIGHT...EXCEPT LIKELY ACRS THE
NORTH. LOWS FRI NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 50S. DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM NW
TO SE SAT MORNING...AND MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DRY AFTER 15Z. TEMPS
ALOFT COOL...BUT A DOWNSLOPE WNW FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS
MAINLY 60-65 F UNDER AFTN SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND INTO THE SERN
STATES/MID ATLANTIC REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...SLIDING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST BY SUN EVENING. ASIDE FROM SOME BREEZY NW WINDS
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST SAT NIGHT...THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL
EXPERIENCE RELATIVELY QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL BEGIN AT TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE ON
SUN (UPPER 50S TO LOW-MID 60S) AND THEN WARM 3-5 DEGREES EACH
CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S
(MID-UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST) BY TUE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
EXPERIENCE THE SAME GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S SAT NIGHT...WARMING ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES EACH NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 50S FORECAST FOR TUE NIGHT. TIMING VARIES
REGARDING WHEN THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR. THE GFS MODEL BRINGS INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE AREA MON EVENING THROUGH WED...WHILE THE ECMWF
MODEL DOES NOT BRING RAIN TO THE AREA UNTIL WED. WENT WITH A LONG
RANGE MODEL BLEND TO AVERAGE OUT RAIN CHANCES DURING THE
AFOREMENTIONED TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CALM TO LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH SLIPS OFF THE COAST FOR
THURSDAY WITH GUSTY S/SW WINDS BY MIDDAY. LOW DEW POINTS WILL PREVENT
FOG FORMATION FOR THURSDAY MORNING. A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS
INDICATED WITH ONLY SCT HIGH CLOUDS.

OUTLOOK...THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE A
DRY FORECAST IS IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FLAGS CANCELLED FOR SRN COASTAL WATERS NOW THAT SEAS ARE
FINALLY FALLING BELOW 5FT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT NLY WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND REMAIN LIGHT (AOB 10KT). HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
OFF THE COAST BY THU AFTN AND THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO
TIGHTEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BREEZY S WINDS BEGIN
TO INCREASE IN NRN WATERS THU AFTN AND THEN BECOME WIDESPREAD
ACROSS ALL WATERS BY THU EVENING. SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 15-20KT WITH
GUSTS OF 20-25KT (UP TO 30 KT IN NRN COASTAL WATERS). A NEW ROUND
OF SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NRN COASTAL WATERS FROM
FENWICK ISLAND TO PARRAMORE ISLAND AND ALL OF CHES BAY BEGINNING
THU AFTN THROUGH AT LEAST FRI AFTN. COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE
ISLAND TO THE VA/NC BORDER MAY BRIEFLY REACH SCA GUSTS OF 25KT THU
EVENING...BUT THE DURATION ANTICIPATED IS NOT LONG ENOUGH TO
JUSTIFY SCA FLAGS ATTM. WAVES WILL AVERAGE 2-3FT THU AFTN THROUGH
THU NIGHT. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3FT...BUILDING TO 3-5FT NRN COASTAL
WATERS THU EVENING.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS ON FRI AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
WINDS TIGHTEN FURTHER WITH SW WINDS AVERAGING 20KT WITH GUSTS OF
25-30KT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WAVES AVERAGE 3-4FT AND SEAS BUILD TO
3-5FT ALL COASTAL WATERS BY EARLY FRI EVENING. THE FRONT CROSSES
THE WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...RESULTING IN A QUICK
SURGE OF WINDS/SEAS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONDITIONS REMAIN
WELL-ROOTED IN SCA FLAGS ON SAT IN THE POST-FRONT ENVIRONMENT AS
WINDS/GUSTS BECOME NWLY AND SEAS AVERAGE 4-6FT NORTH OF CAPE
CHARLES AND 3-5FT SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES. ONGOING SCA FLAGS FROM
THU WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH SAT...AND ANY WATERS NOT
WITHIN SCA FLAGS WILL LIKELY BE IN THEM BY EARLY FRI MORNING
(BEGINNING ROUGHLY AROUND DAYBREAK). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE REGION BY SAT EVENING AND ALL CONDITIONS (WINDS/WAVES/SEAS)
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW SCA CRITERIA. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE WATERS SUN THROUGH EARLY MON WITH SLY WINDS REMAINING
AOB 15KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER THREAT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
25 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS DROPPING BETWEEN 20 TO 30
PERCENT ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT RICHMOND FOR TUESDAY MARCH 31ST HAS BEEN
RECORDED AS 74 DEGREES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ015>017-
     031-032.
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ097-098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THURSDAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...BMD/SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...BMD
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020004
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
804 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...AND CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FROM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~1022 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM
THE ERN GREAT LAKES SSE TO SE VA AND ERN NC. DRY...BUT MUCH COOLER
DAY THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES AVG IN THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S MOST AREAS WELL INLAND...WITH SOME LOCATIONS AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AS COOL AS THE UPPER 40S. DRY AIRMASS WITH DEW PTS
MAINLY IN THE 20S. UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING CENTERED OVER SE VA AND ERN NC...EXPECT COLDEST
TEMPERATURES TO RESIDE E OF I-95. LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST ON THE
COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE...IN THE LOWER-MID 30S FOR INTERIOR SE VA/NE
NC...MID 30S TO AROUND 40 F ELSEWHERE.

HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADSY FOR MOST OF THE ZONES THAT HAVE STARTED
THE GROWING SEASON AS OF TODAY (APRIL 1ST). THIS INCLUDES THE NE
NC COUNTIES FROM CHOWAN EAST TO THE ATLC COAST...AND CHESAPEAKE/VA
BEACH. LEFT NORFOLK AND COASTAL/OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK OUT OF IT
DUE TO SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS W/ A FEW KT OF WIND ANTICIPATED. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT COUNTIES IN THE ADSY ALONG THE SOUND AND
ALONG THE ATLC COAST (VA BEACH OCEANFRONT) WILL LIKELY BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER AND FROST IS UNLIKELY...JUST THAT WE DO NOT HAVE
THE ABILITY TO ISSUE POLYGON- BASED FROST ADVISORIES. PATCHY FROST
ALSO POSSIBLE FARTHER INLAND IN NC AND VA...BUT THESE ZONES DO NOT
START THE GROWING SEASON UNTIL APRIL 8TH OR LATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE BY MID/LATE THUS MORNING AND
A WX DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA
WILL BE WITHIN A WARMING AIRMASS AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP BY
THE AFTN. MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH AROUND 70 F UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE L/M60S AT THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

INCREASING CLOUDS THU NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE
COAST AND A MORE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. IN GENERAL...MODELS
RMN SLOWER AT BRINGING IN DEEP MOISTURE AND THE NRN STREAM AND
SRN STREAM ARE SLOWER TO PHASE. WILL CONT W/ HIGHEST POPS ON FRI
TO NNW 1/3RD OF FA BY EARLY FRI AM THROUGH FRI AFTN. VERY MILD
THU NIGHT IN SSW FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS...LOWS IN THE 50S TO
POSSIBLY AS WARM AS 60F IN A FEW SPOTS. WARM/VARIABLY CLOUDY FRI
WITH 20-30% CHC FOR -SHRA AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY TSTMS AS THE
SFC FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
M/U70S TO AROUND 80F (U60S/L70S ON THE ERN SHORE). MAIN RAIN
EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRI NIGHT...AS THE ACTUAL FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE CWA FROM NW TO SE FROM 06-12Z. NOT A LONG PERIOD
OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS FRONT HOWEVER...AND GIVEN SOME
CONTINUED MODEL DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE HIGH CHC RANGE FRI NIGHT...EXCEPT LIKELY ACRS THE
NORTH. LOWS FRI NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 50S. DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM NW
TO SE SAT MORNING...AND MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DRY AFTER 15Z. TEMPS
ALOFT COOL...BUT A DOWNSLOPE WNW FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS
MAINLY 60-65 F UNDER AFTN SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND INTO THE SERN
STATES/MID ATLANTIC REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...SLIDING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST BY SUN EVENING. ASIDE FROM SOME BREEZY NW WINDS
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST SAT NIGHT...THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL
EXPERIENCE RELATIVELY QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL BEGIN AT TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE ON
SUN (UPPER 50S TO LOW-MID 60S) AND THEN WARM 3-5 DEGREES EACH
CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S
(MID-UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST) BY TUE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
EXPERIENCE THE SAME GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S SAT NIGHT...WARMING ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES EACH NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 50S FORECAST FOR TUE NIGHT. TIMING VARIES
REGARDING WHEN THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR. THE GFS MODEL BRINGS INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE AREA MON EVENING THROUGH WED...WHILE THE ECMWF
MODEL DOES NOT BRING RAIN TO THE AREA UNTIL WED. WENT WITH A LONG
RANGE MODEL BLEND TO AVERAGE OUT RAIN CHANCES DURING THE
AFOREMENTIONED TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CALM TO LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH SLIPS OFF THE COAST FOR
THURSDAY WITH GUSTY S/SW WINDS BY MIDDAY. LOW DEW POINTS WILL PREVENT
FOG FORMATION FOR THURSDAY MORNING. A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS
INDICATED WITH ONLY SCT HIGH CLOUDS.

OUTLOOK...THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE A
DRY FORECAST IS IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FLAGS CANCELLED FOR SRN COASTAL WATERS NOW THAT SEAS ARE
FINALLY FALLING BELOW 5FT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT NLY WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND REMAIN LIGHT (AOB 10KT). HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
OFF THE COAST BY THU AFTN AND THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO
TIGHTEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BREEZY S WINDS BEGIN
TO INCREASE IN NRN WATERS THU AFTN AND THEN BECOME WIDESPREAD
ACROSS ALL WATERS BY THU EVENING. SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 15-20KT WITH
GUSTS OF 20-25KT (UP TO 30 KT IN NRN COASTAL WATERS). A NEW ROUND
OF SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NRN COASTAL WATERS FROM
FENWICK ISLAND TO PARRAMORE ISLAND AND ALL OF CHES BAY BEGINNING
THU AFTN THROUGH AT LEAST FRI AFTN. COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE
ISLAND TO THE VA/NC BORDER MAY BRIEFLY REACH SCA GUSTS OF 25KT THU
EVENING...BUT THE DURATION ANTICIPATED IS NOT LONG ENOUGH TO
JUSTIFY SCA FLAGS ATTM. WAVES WILL AVERAGE 2-3FT THU AFTN THROUGH
THU NIGHT. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3FT...BUILDING TO 3-5FT NRN COASTAL
WATERS THU EVENING.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS ON FRI AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
WINDS TIGHTEN FURTHER WITH SW WINDS AVERAGING 20KT WITH GUSTS OF
25-30KT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WAVES AVERAGE 3-4FT AND SEAS BUILD TO
3-5FT ALL COASTAL WATERS BY EARLY FRI EVENING. THE FRONT CROSSES
THE WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...RESULTING IN A QUICK
SURGE OF WINDS/SEAS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONDITIONS REMAIN
WELL-ROOTED IN SCA FLAGS ON SAT IN THE POST-FRONT ENVIRONMENT AS
WINDS/GUSTS BECOME NWLY AND SEAS AVERAGE 4-6FT NORTH OF CAPE
CHARLES AND 3-5FT SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES. ONGOING SCA FLAGS FROM
THU WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH SAT...AND ANY WATERS NOT
WITHIN SCA FLAGS WILL LIKELY BE IN THEM BY EARLY FRI MORNING
(BEGINNING ROUGHLY AROUND DAYBREAK). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE REGION BY SAT EVENING AND ALL CONDITIONS (WINDS/WAVES/SEAS)
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW SCA CRITERIA. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE WATERS SUN THROUGH EARLY MON WITH SLY WINDS REMAINING
AOB 15KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER THREAT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
25 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS DROPPING BETWEEN 20 TO 30
PERCENT ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT RICHMOND FOR TUESDAY MARCH 31ST HAS BEEN
RECORDED AS 74 DEGREES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ015>017-
     031-032.
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ097-098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THURSDAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...BMD/SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...BMD
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020004
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
804 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...AND CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FROM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~1022 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM
THE ERN GREAT LAKES SSE TO SE VA AND ERN NC. DRY...BUT MUCH COOLER
DAY THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES AVG IN THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S MOST AREAS WELL INLAND...WITH SOME LOCATIONS AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AS COOL AS THE UPPER 40S. DRY AIRMASS WITH DEW PTS
MAINLY IN THE 20S. UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING CENTERED OVER SE VA AND ERN NC...EXPECT COLDEST
TEMPERATURES TO RESIDE E OF I-95. LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST ON THE
COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE...IN THE LOWER-MID 30S FOR INTERIOR SE VA/NE
NC...MID 30S TO AROUND 40 F ELSEWHERE.

HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADSY FOR MOST OF THE ZONES THAT HAVE STARTED
THE GROWING SEASON AS OF TODAY (APRIL 1ST). THIS INCLUDES THE NE
NC COUNTIES FROM CHOWAN EAST TO THE ATLC COAST...AND CHESAPEAKE/VA
BEACH. LEFT NORFOLK AND COASTAL/OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK OUT OF IT
DUE TO SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS W/ A FEW KT OF WIND ANTICIPATED. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT COUNTIES IN THE ADSY ALONG THE SOUND AND
ALONG THE ATLC COAST (VA BEACH OCEANFRONT) WILL LIKELY BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER AND FROST IS UNLIKELY...JUST THAT WE DO NOT HAVE
THE ABILITY TO ISSUE POLYGON- BASED FROST ADVISORIES. PATCHY FROST
ALSO POSSIBLE FARTHER INLAND IN NC AND VA...BUT THESE ZONES DO NOT
START THE GROWING SEASON UNTIL APRIL 8TH OR LATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE BY MID/LATE THUS MORNING AND
A WX DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA
WILL BE WITHIN A WARMING AIRMASS AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP BY
THE AFTN. MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH AROUND 70 F UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE L/M60S AT THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

INCREASING CLOUDS THU NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE
COAST AND A MORE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. IN GENERAL...MODELS
RMN SLOWER AT BRINGING IN DEEP MOISTURE AND THE NRN STREAM AND
SRN STREAM ARE SLOWER TO PHASE. WILL CONT W/ HIGHEST POPS ON FRI
TO NNW 1/3RD OF FA BY EARLY FRI AM THROUGH FRI AFTN. VERY MILD
THU NIGHT IN SSW FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS...LOWS IN THE 50S TO
POSSIBLY AS WARM AS 60F IN A FEW SPOTS. WARM/VARIABLY CLOUDY FRI
WITH 20-30% CHC FOR -SHRA AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY TSTMS AS THE
SFC FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
M/U70S TO AROUND 80F (U60S/L70S ON THE ERN SHORE). MAIN RAIN
EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRI NIGHT...AS THE ACTUAL FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE CWA FROM NW TO SE FROM 06-12Z. NOT A LONG PERIOD
OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS FRONT HOWEVER...AND GIVEN SOME
CONTINUED MODEL DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE HIGH CHC RANGE FRI NIGHT...EXCEPT LIKELY ACRS THE
NORTH. LOWS FRI NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 50S. DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM NW
TO SE SAT MORNING...AND MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DRY AFTER 15Z. TEMPS
ALOFT COOL...BUT A DOWNSLOPE WNW FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS
MAINLY 60-65 F UNDER AFTN SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND INTO THE SERN
STATES/MID ATLANTIC REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...SLIDING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST BY SUN EVENING. ASIDE FROM SOME BREEZY NW WINDS
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST SAT NIGHT...THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL
EXPERIENCE RELATIVELY QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL BEGIN AT TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE ON
SUN (UPPER 50S TO LOW-MID 60S) AND THEN WARM 3-5 DEGREES EACH
CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S
(MID-UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST) BY TUE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
EXPERIENCE THE SAME GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S SAT NIGHT...WARMING ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES EACH NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 50S FORECAST FOR TUE NIGHT. TIMING VARIES
REGARDING WHEN THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR. THE GFS MODEL BRINGS INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE AREA MON EVENING THROUGH WED...WHILE THE ECMWF
MODEL DOES NOT BRING RAIN TO THE AREA UNTIL WED. WENT WITH A LONG
RANGE MODEL BLEND TO AVERAGE OUT RAIN CHANCES DURING THE
AFOREMENTIONED TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CALM TO LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH SLIPS OFF THE COAST FOR
THURSDAY WITH GUSTY S/SW WINDS BY MIDDAY. LOW DEW POINTS WILL PREVENT
FOG FORMATION FOR THURSDAY MORNING. A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS
INDICATED WITH ONLY SCT HIGH CLOUDS.

OUTLOOK...THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE A
DRY FORECAST IS IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FLAGS CANCELLED FOR SRN COASTAL WATERS NOW THAT SEAS ARE
FINALLY FALLING BELOW 5FT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT NLY WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND REMAIN LIGHT (AOB 10KT). HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
OFF THE COAST BY THU AFTN AND THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO
TIGHTEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BREEZY S WINDS BEGIN
TO INCREASE IN NRN WATERS THU AFTN AND THEN BECOME WIDESPREAD
ACROSS ALL WATERS BY THU EVENING. SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 15-20KT WITH
GUSTS OF 20-25KT (UP TO 30 KT IN NRN COASTAL WATERS). A NEW ROUND
OF SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NRN COASTAL WATERS FROM
FENWICK ISLAND TO PARRAMORE ISLAND AND ALL OF CHES BAY BEGINNING
THU AFTN THROUGH AT LEAST FRI AFTN. COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE
ISLAND TO THE VA/NC BORDER MAY BRIEFLY REACH SCA GUSTS OF 25KT THU
EVENING...BUT THE DURATION ANTICIPATED IS NOT LONG ENOUGH TO
JUSTIFY SCA FLAGS ATTM. WAVES WILL AVERAGE 2-3FT THU AFTN THROUGH
THU NIGHT. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3FT...BUILDING TO 3-5FT NRN COASTAL
WATERS THU EVENING.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS ON FRI AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
WINDS TIGHTEN FURTHER WITH SW WINDS AVERAGING 20KT WITH GUSTS OF
25-30KT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WAVES AVERAGE 3-4FT AND SEAS BUILD TO
3-5FT ALL COASTAL WATERS BY EARLY FRI EVENING. THE FRONT CROSSES
THE WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...RESULTING IN A QUICK
SURGE OF WINDS/SEAS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONDITIONS REMAIN
WELL-ROOTED IN SCA FLAGS ON SAT IN THE POST-FRONT ENVIRONMENT AS
WINDS/GUSTS BECOME NWLY AND SEAS AVERAGE 4-6FT NORTH OF CAPE
CHARLES AND 3-5FT SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES. ONGOING SCA FLAGS FROM
THU WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH SAT...AND ANY WATERS NOT
WITHIN SCA FLAGS WILL LIKELY BE IN THEM BY EARLY FRI MORNING
(BEGINNING ROUGHLY AROUND DAYBREAK). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE REGION BY SAT EVENING AND ALL CONDITIONS (WINDS/WAVES/SEAS)
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW SCA CRITERIA. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE WATERS SUN THROUGH EARLY MON WITH SLY WINDS REMAINING
AOB 15KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER THREAT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
25 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS DROPPING BETWEEN 20 TO 30
PERCENT ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT RICHMOND FOR TUESDAY MARCH 31ST HAS BEEN
RECORDED AS 74 DEGREES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ015>017-
     031-032.
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ097-098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THURSDAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...BMD/SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...BMD
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020004
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
804 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...AND CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FROM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~1022 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM
THE ERN GREAT LAKES SSE TO SE VA AND ERN NC. DRY...BUT MUCH COOLER
DAY THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES AVG IN THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S MOST AREAS WELL INLAND...WITH SOME LOCATIONS AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AS COOL AS THE UPPER 40S. DRY AIRMASS WITH DEW PTS
MAINLY IN THE 20S. UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING CENTERED OVER SE VA AND ERN NC...EXPECT COLDEST
TEMPERATURES TO RESIDE E OF I-95. LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST ON THE
COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE...IN THE LOWER-MID 30S FOR INTERIOR SE VA/NE
NC...MID 30S TO AROUND 40 F ELSEWHERE.

HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADSY FOR MOST OF THE ZONES THAT HAVE STARTED
THE GROWING SEASON AS OF TODAY (APRIL 1ST). THIS INCLUDES THE NE
NC COUNTIES FROM CHOWAN EAST TO THE ATLC COAST...AND CHESAPEAKE/VA
BEACH. LEFT NORFOLK AND COASTAL/OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK OUT OF IT
DUE TO SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS W/ A FEW KT OF WIND ANTICIPATED. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT COUNTIES IN THE ADSY ALONG THE SOUND AND
ALONG THE ATLC COAST (VA BEACH OCEANFRONT) WILL LIKELY BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER AND FROST IS UNLIKELY...JUST THAT WE DO NOT HAVE
THE ABILITY TO ISSUE POLYGON- BASED FROST ADVISORIES. PATCHY FROST
ALSO POSSIBLE FARTHER INLAND IN NC AND VA...BUT THESE ZONES DO NOT
START THE GROWING SEASON UNTIL APRIL 8TH OR LATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE BY MID/LATE THUS MORNING AND
A WX DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA
WILL BE WITHIN A WARMING AIRMASS AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP BY
THE AFTN. MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH AROUND 70 F UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE L/M60S AT THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

INCREASING CLOUDS THU NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE
COAST AND A MORE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. IN GENERAL...MODELS
RMN SLOWER AT BRINGING IN DEEP MOISTURE AND THE NRN STREAM AND
SRN STREAM ARE SLOWER TO PHASE. WILL CONT W/ HIGHEST POPS ON FRI
TO NNW 1/3RD OF FA BY EARLY FRI AM THROUGH FRI AFTN. VERY MILD
THU NIGHT IN SSW FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS...LOWS IN THE 50S TO
POSSIBLY AS WARM AS 60F IN A FEW SPOTS. WARM/VARIABLY CLOUDY FRI
WITH 20-30% CHC FOR -SHRA AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY TSTMS AS THE
SFC FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
M/U70S TO AROUND 80F (U60S/L70S ON THE ERN SHORE). MAIN RAIN
EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRI NIGHT...AS THE ACTUAL FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE CWA FROM NW TO SE FROM 06-12Z. NOT A LONG PERIOD
OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS FRONT HOWEVER...AND GIVEN SOME
CONTINUED MODEL DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE HIGH CHC RANGE FRI NIGHT...EXCEPT LIKELY ACRS THE
NORTH. LOWS FRI NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 50S. DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM NW
TO SE SAT MORNING...AND MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DRY AFTER 15Z. TEMPS
ALOFT COOL...BUT A DOWNSLOPE WNW FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS
MAINLY 60-65 F UNDER AFTN SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND INTO THE SERN
STATES/MID ATLANTIC REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...SLIDING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST BY SUN EVENING. ASIDE FROM SOME BREEZY NW WINDS
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST SAT NIGHT...THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL
EXPERIENCE RELATIVELY QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL BEGIN AT TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE ON
SUN (UPPER 50S TO LOW-MID 60S) AND THEN WARM 3-5 DEGREES EACH
CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S
(MID-UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST) BY TUE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
EXPERIENCE THE SAME GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S SAT NIGHT...WARMING ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES EACH NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 50S FORECAST FOR TUE NIGHT. TIMING VARIES
REGARDING WHEN THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR. THE GFS MODEL BRINGS INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE AREA MON EVENING THROUGH WED...WHILE THE ECMWF
MODEL DOES NOT BRING RAIN TO THE AREA UNTIL WED. WENT WITH A LONG
RANGE MODEL BLEND TO AVERAGE OUT RAIN CHANCES DURING THE
AFOREMENTIONED TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CALM TO LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH SLIPS OFF THE COAST FOR
THURSDAY WITH GUSTY S/SW WINDS BY MIDDAY. LOW DEW POINTS WILL PREVENT
FOG FORMATION FOR THURSDAY MORNING. A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS
INDICATED WITH ONLY SCT HIGH CLOUDS.

OUTLOOK...THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE A
DRY FORECAST IS IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FLAGS CANCELLED FOR SRN COASTAL WATERS NOW THAT SEAS ARE
FINALLY FALLING BELOW 5FT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT NLY WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND REMAIN LIGHT (AOB 10KT). HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
OFF THE COAST BY THU AFTN AND THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO
TIGHTEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BREEZY S WINDS BEGIN
TO INCREASE IN NRN WATERS THU AFTN AND THEN BECOME WIDESPREAD
ACROSS ALL WATERS BY THU EVENING. SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 15-20KT WITH
GUSTS OF 20-25KT (UP TO 30 KT IN NRN COASTAL WATERS). A NEW ROUND
OF SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NRN COASTAL WATERS FROM
FENWICK ISLAND TO PARRAMORE ISLAND AND ALL OF CHES BAY BEGINNING
THU AFTN THROUGH AT LEAST FRI AFTN. COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE
ISLAND TO THE VA/NC BORDER MAY BRIEFLY REACH SCA GUSTS OF 25KT THU
EVENING...BUT THE DURATION ANTICIPATED IS NOT LONG ENOUGH TO
JUSTIFY SCA FLAGS ATTM. WAVES WILL AVERAGE 2-3FT THU AFTN THROUGH
THU NIGHT. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3FT...BUILDING TO 3-5FT NRN COASTAL
WATERS THU EVENING.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS ON FRI AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
WINDS TIGHTEN FURTHER WITH SW WINDS AVERAGING 20KT WITH GUSTS OF
25-30KT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WAVES AVERAGE 3-4FT AND SEAS BUILD TO
3-5FT ALL COASTAL WATERS BY EARLY FRI EVENING. THE FRONT CROSSES
THE WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...RESULTING IN A QUICK
SURGE OF WINDS/SEAS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONDITIONS REMAIN
WELL-ROOTED IN SCA FLAGS ON SAT IN THE POST-FRONT ENVIRONMENT AS
WINDS/GUSTS BECOME NWLY AND SEAS AVERAGE 4-6FT NORTH OF CAPE
CHARLES AND 3-5FT SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES. ONGOING SCA FLAGS FROM
THU WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH SAT...AND ANY WATERS NOT
WITHIN SCA FLAGS WILL LIKELY BE IN THEM BY EARLY FRI MORNING
(BEGINNING ROUGHLY AROUND DAYBREAK). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE REGION BY SAT EVENING AND ALL CONDITIONS (WINDS/WAVES/SEAS)
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW SCA CRITERIA. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE WATERS SUN THROUGH EARLY MON WITH SLY WINDS REMAINING
AOB 15KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER THREAT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
25 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS DROPPING BETWEEN 20 TO 30
PERCENT ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT RICHMOND FOR TUESDAY MARCH 31ST HAS BEEN
RECORDED AS 74 DEGREES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ015>017-
     031-032.
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ097-098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THURSDAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...BMD/SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...BMD
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 012330
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
730 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER TONIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARM THURSDAY WITH
INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
530PM UPDATE...SKIES HAVE JUST ABOUT CLEARED AS THE FLOW HAS
VEERED TO THE WEST AND THE COLD AIR ALOFT IS BEING EJECTED TO THE
NORTHEAST. SKY COVERAGE HAS BEEN ADJUSTED AS WELL AS OVERNIGHT
TEMPS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SHORTWAVE IS IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING TO THE EAST AT
PRESENT. WHAT WAS A MORE SOLID DECK OF STRATUS/STRATOCU HAS LIFTED
AND BROKEN UP INTO MAINLY HIGH CU OR LOW AC. THESE CLOUDS WILL
MOVE OUT/BREAK UP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...LEADING TO A MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS H500 RIDGE
AXIS ARRIVES BY 12Z. WITH SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER STIRRED AND
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING OFF TOO FAR. TRIED TO LEAN AT OR A
TOUCH ABOVE THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR LOW TEMPS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION INCREASE ON THURSDAY WITH H850
TEMPS CLIMBING TO +9/+10 DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP
DRIVE TEMPERATURES AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND HAVE HIGH
TEMPS NEAR THE TOP END OF GUIDANCE. PIT HAS A CHANCE TO REACH 70
DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE LAST NOVEMBER 11. THIS IS IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEM...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM
A CANADIAN LOW. EXPECTING THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO ARRIVE
TOWARDS AND AFTER SUNSET FROM THE WEST...AND DO HAVE LIKELY POPS
HERE BY 00Z. HOWEVER...SOME MEAGER INSTABILITY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
MAY POP SOME SHRA FROM LATE MORNING ON. ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR A SEVERE WEATHER
CONCERN. DESPITE THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
NOT SUGGESTING VERY DEEP MIXING...WHICH WOULD KEEP 50+ KNOT H850
WINDS LOCKED UP ALOFT. DO EXPECT SOME 25-30 KNOT GUSTS AT THE
SURFACE BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY. QPF THROUGH 00Z SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW A QUARTER INCH IN GENERAL...WITH THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
RAIN TO FOLLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT IS STILL FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES RIDE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...BRINGING
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS. THE LAST...AND MOST SIGNIFICANT WAVE THAT WILL
HELP PUSH THE FRONT TO THE EAST WILL COME LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.
WHILE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE PRESENT...AS SUGGESTED
IN THE MODEL WITH PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 1.00 INCH AND THE 1 TO
2 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS PROGGED AREAWIDE...THE LONG DURATION OF
THE EVENT SHOULD HELP TO MINIMIZE WATER PROBLEMS. HOWEVER...IF
THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...HEAVIER
RAINFALL COULD CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES. AT THIS
TIME...WILL NOT ADD ANY CONCERN FOR THIS IN THE HWO WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE FRONT AND SURFACE WAVE EXITING. A
BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS THE PRECIP ENDS. ANY
REMAINING PRECIP CHANCES...MAINLY NE OF PIT...SHOULD DIMINISH BY
AFTERNOON.

GENERALLY KEPT A COMPROMISE OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND TO LESSER EXTENT
THE NAM AND SREF FOR THE FORECAST WITH MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO
POPS AND TEMPERATURES FROM THE LAST SHIFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A TRAILING SHORTWAVE IS STILL PROGGED TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS
ALONG A SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE
SITUATION...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE...SO SLIGHT...TO CHANCE POPS WERE CONFINED TO
NORTHERN COUNTIES.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO NEAR...THEN ABOVE
THE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS IN RESPONSE TO WESTERN STATES TROUGHING.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL RISE AS THE WEEK AND TROUGH PROGRESS.

THE LONG TERM PROGNOSIS WAS PRIMARILY BASED ON ADJUSTED WPC
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT UNDER SURFACE
RIDGES. RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST AHEAD OF APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM
THURSDAY WITH MID DECK ARRIVING BEFORE 12Z WESTERN PORTS WITH
WINDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KTS AND BECOMING
GUSTY. LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR WITH SCT SHOWERS FROM LATE MORNING
WEST SPREADING EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THUNDER POSSIBLE WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT AS COVERAGE
AND TIMING IN DOUBT.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED WITH COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 012330
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
730 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER TONIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARM THURSDAY WITH
INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
530PM UPDATE...SKIES HAVE JUST ABOUT CLEARED AS THE FLOW HAS
VEERED TO THE WEST AND THE COLD AIR ALOFT IS BEING EJECTED TO THE
NORTHEAST. SKY COVERAGE HAS BEEN ADJUSTED AS WELL AS OVERNIGHT
TEMPS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SHORTWAVE IS IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING TO THE EAST AT
PRESENT. WHAT WAS A MORE SOLID DECK OF STRATUS/STRATOCU HAS LIFTED
AND BROKEN UP INTO MAINLY HIGH CU OR LOW AC. THESE CLOUDS WILL
MOVE OUT/BREAK UP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...LEADING TO A MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS H500 RIDGE
AXIS ARRIVES BY 12Z. WITH SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER STIRRED AND
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING OFF TOO FAR. TRIED TO LEAN AT OR A
TOUCH ABOVE THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR LOW TEMPS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION INCREASE ON THURSDAY WITH H850
TEMPS CLIMBING TO +9/+10 DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP
DRIVE TEMPERATURES AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND HAVE HIGH
TEMPS NEAR THE TOP END OF GUIDANCE. PIT HAS A CHANCE TO REACH 70
DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE LAST NOVEMBER 11. THIS IS IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEM...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM
A CANADIAN LOW. EXPECTING THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO ARRIVE
TOWARDS AND AFTER SUNSET FROM THE WEST...AND DO HAVE LIKELY POPS
HERE BY 00Z. HOWEVER...SOME MEAGER INSTABILITY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
MAY POP SOME SHRA FROM LATE MORNING ON. ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR A SEVERE WEATHER
CONCERN. DESPITE THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
NOT SUGGESTING VERY DEEP MIXING...WHICH WOULD KEEP 50+ KNOT H850
WINDS LOCKED UP ALOFT. DO EXPECT SOME 25-30 KNOT GUSTS AT THE
SURFACE BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY. QPF THROUGH 00Z SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW A QUARTER INCH IN GENERAL...WITH THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
RAIN TO FOLLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT IS STILL FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES RIDE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...BRINGING
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS. THE LAST...AND MOST SIGNIFICANT WAVE THAT WILL
HELP PUSH THE FRONT TO THE EAST WILL COME LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.
WHILE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE PRESENT...AS SUGGESTED
IN THE MODEL WITH PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 1.00 INCH AND THE 1 TO
2 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS PROGGED AREAWIDE...THE LONG DURATION OF
THE EVENT SHOULD HELP TO MINIMIZE WATER PROBLEMS. HOWEVER...IF
THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...HEAVIER
RAINFALL COULD CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES. AT THIS
TIME...WILL NOT ADD ANY CONCERN FOR THIS IN THE HWO WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE FRONT AND SURFACE WAVE EXITING. A
BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS THE PRECIP ENDS. ANY
REMAINING PRECIP CHANCES...MAINLY NE OF PIT...SHOULD DIMINISH BY
AFTERNOON.

GENERALLY KEPT A COMPROMISE OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND TO LESSER EXTENT
THE NAM AND SREF FOR THE FORECAST WITH MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO
POPS AND TEMPERATURES FROM THE LAST SHIFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A TRAILING SHORTWAVE IS STILL PROGGED TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS
ALONG A SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE
SITUATION...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE...SO SLIGHT...TO CHANCE POPS WERE CONFINED TO
NORTHERN COUNTIES.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO NEAR...THEN ABOVE
THE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS IN RESPONSE TO WESTERN STATES TROUGHING.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL RISE AS THE WEEK AND TROUGH PROGRESS.

THE LONG TERM PROGNOSIS WAS PRIMARILY BASED ON ADJUSTED WPC
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT UNDER SURFACE
RIDGES. RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST AHEAD OF APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM
THURSDAY WITH MID DECK ARRIVING BEFORE 12Z WESTERN PORTS WITH
WINDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KTS AND BECOMING
GUSTY. LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR WITH SCT SHOWERS FROM LATE MORNING
WEST SPREADING EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THUNDER POSSIBLE WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT AS COVERAGE
AND TIMING IN DOUBT.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED WITH COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPHI 012321
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
721 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FRIDAY, WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY,
WHILE A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FRONT MAY
STALL NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH SEVERAL
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

THE SKY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR FOR TONIGHT. THE CLOUDS
THAT WERE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD DISSIPATE A BIT AS THEY MOVE TO THE EAST AND INTO RELATIVELY
DRY AIR. HOWEVER, A FEW PATCHES OF CLOUD COVER MAY OVERCOME THE
DRYING AND THEY COULD DRIFT OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE
NIGHT.

THE WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR TONIGHT AS
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PASSES OVER OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP DUE TO THE NEARLY IDEAL RADIATING CONDITIONS. WE
ARE FORECASTING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S WITH SOME READINGS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S
POSSIBLE UP NORTH DUE TO THE SNOW COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING FARTHER OUT TO SEA
ON THURSDAY. THE AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PASS
OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY
MORNING, OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DURING
THE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

A STIFF SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH BREEZE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
15 TO 20 MPH FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. THE
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH FLOW WILL DRAW MILD AIR INTO OUR REGION. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE 60S IN MUCH OF OUR
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT, SETTING UP THE
BEGINNING OF A WET PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT DOES NOT
LOOK TO MAKE IT FULLY INTO OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AS IT MAY STALL
JUST TO OUR NORTH, WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT, FINALLY PULLING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SEVERAL VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL BE
TRAVERSING THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, WHICH WILL LEAD TO
SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE
REMAINS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS A PORTION OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM, SO WE WILL KEEP A MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONG
INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER, IF THUNDERSTORMS DO OCCUR, THEY COULD
PRODUCE SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS. ACTUALLY, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
FRIDAY MAY BE A GUSTY DAY IN GENERAL DUE TO THE SYNOPTIC PRESSURE
GRADIENT. AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA TO CHANGE
THE RAIN OVER TO SNOW FOR A PERIOD ACROSS THE POCONOS.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MOVED PAST THE AREA BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY,
BUT WE EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO END THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS
THE LOW MOVES WELL TO OUR NORTH, STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA, LEADING TO A GUSTY DAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH.
THE STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD BEGIN TO DROP OFF OVERNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRONT THE NORTH, BUT
MAY NOT FULLY MAKE IT ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONT MAY STALL JUST TO
THE NORTH. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN LIFT TO OUR NORTHEAST
EARLY MONDAY WHEN THE FRONT MAY FINALLY PUSH ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER, THIS IS WHEN THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITH THE LONG TERM
MODELS. THE GFS ENDS UP LIFTING THIS FRONT BACK NORTHWARD MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BEFORE PROGRESSIVELY MOVING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OUT OF THE MID-WEST AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA FOR
MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY, BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE DIFFERENCE IN MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE FACT ITS STILL PRETTY
FAR OUT, WE`VE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE WHICH MORE CLOSELY
RESEMBLES THE ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES. THAT BEING SAID, THE EARLY TO
MID PART OF NEXT WEEK COULD BE UNSETTLED.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY.

A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS INTO THE EARLY EVENING SHOULD
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER DARK. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THURSDAY. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST
TO INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS
WITH SHOWERS LIKELY; THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS 20-30 KNOTS FRIDAY.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KNOTS
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TONIGHT. A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME VARIABLE AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ON
THURSDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW WELL THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MIX WITH THE MILD AIR PASSING OVER THE VERY CHILLY
WATER. IT IS LIKELY THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT REACH THEIR FULL
POTENTIAL.

WE WILL BEGIN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT 200 PM THURSDAY. ADMITTEDLY,
WE MAY BE A LITTLE EARLY FOR MOST OF OUR MARINE AREA. HOWEVER, NEAR
SHORE GUSTS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH 25 KNOTS AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
THAT TIME.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AFFECT THE AREA AND MOVE THROUGH.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...WINDS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE ARE FORECASTING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND INCREASING TO 15 TO
20 MPH FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH
AT THAT TIME. ALSO, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
AROUND 30 PERCENT AND FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE.

THERE MAY BE AN ENHANCED THREAT OF WILDFIRE SPREAD ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, EXCEPT FOR THOSE AREAS THAT STILL HAVE SNOW COVER. WE
WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY SPECIAL FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER, WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 012124 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
524 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER TONIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARM THURSDAY WITH
INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
530PM UPDATE...SKIES HAVE JUST ABOUT CLEARED AS THE FLOW HAS
VEERED TO THE WEST AND THE COLD AIR ALOFT IS BEING EJECTED TO THE
NORTHEAST. SKY COVERAGE HAS BEEN ADJUSTED AS WELL AS OVERNIGHT
TEMPS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SHORTWAVE IS IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING TO THE EAST AT
PRESENT. WHAT WAS A MORE SOLID DECK OF STRATUS/STRATOCU HAS LIFTED
AND BROKEN UP INTO MAINLY HIGH CU OR LOW AC. THESE CLOUDS WILL
MOVE OUT/BREAK UP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...LEADING TO A MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS H500 RIDGE
AXIS ARRIVES BY 12Z. WITH SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER STIRRED AND
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING OFF TOO FAR. TRIED TO LEAN AT OR A
TOUCH ABOVE THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR LOW TEMPS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION INCREASE ON THURSDAY WITH H850
TEMPS CLIMBING TO +9/+10 DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP
DRIVE TEMPERATURES AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND HAVE HIGH
TEMPS NEAR THE TOP END OF GUIDANCE. PIT HAS A CHANCE TO REACH 70
DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE LAST NOVEMBER 11. THIS IS IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEM...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM
A CANADIAN LOW. EXPECTING THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO ARRIVE
TOWARDS AND AFTER SUNSET FROM THE WEST...AND DO HAVE LIKELY POPS
HERE BY 00Z. HOWEVER...SOME MEAGER INSTABILITY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
MAY POP SOME SHRA FROM LATE MORNING ON. ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR A SEVERE WEATHER
CONCERN. DESPITE THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
NOT SUGGESTING VERY DEEP MIXING...WHICH WOULD KEEP 50+ KNOT H850
WINDS LOCKED UP ALOFT. DO EXPECT SOME 25-30 KNOT GUSTS AT THE
SURFACE BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY. QPF THROUGH 00Z SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW A QUARTER INCH IN GENERAL...WITH THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
RAIN TO FOLLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT IS STILL FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES RIDE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...BRINGING
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS. THE LAST...AND MOST SIGNIFICANT WAVE THAT WILL
HELP PUSH THE FRONT TO THE EAST WILL COME LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.
WHILE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE PRESENT...AS SUGGESTED
IN THE MODEL WITH PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 1.00 INCH AND THE 1 TO
2 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS PROGGED AREAWIDE...THE LONG DURATION OF
THE EVENT SHOULD HELP TO MINIMIZE WATER PROBLEMS. HOWEVER...IF
THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...HEAVIER
RAINFALL COULD CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES. AT THIS
TIME...WILL NOT ADD ANY CONCERN FOR THIS IN THE HWO WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE FRONT AND SURFACE WAVE EXITING. A
BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS THE PRECIP ENDS. ANY
REMAINING PRECIP CHANCES...MAINLY NE OF PIT...SHOULD DIMINISH BY
AFTERNOON.

GENERALLY KEPT A COMPROMISE OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND TO LESSER EXTENT
THE NAM AND SREF FOR THE FORECAST WITH MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO
POPS AND TEMPERATURES FROM THE LAST SHIFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A TRAILING SHORTWAVE IS STILL PROGGED TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS
ALONG A SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE
SITUATION...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE...SO SLIGHT...TO CHANCE POPS WERE CONFINED TO
NORTHERN COUNTIES.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO NEAR...THEN ABOVE
THE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS IN RESPONSE TO WESTERN STATES TROUGHING.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL RISE AS THE WEEK AND TROUGH PROGRESS.

THE LONG TERM PROGNOSIS WAS PRIMARILY BASED ON ADJUSTED WPC
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PRODUCING MOSTLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. DUJ IS HOLDING ON TO SOME MVFR STRATOCUMULUS
WHICH SHOULD LIFT TO VFR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT
MOST OF THE CLOUDS TO EXIT BY 00Z...LEADING TO A MOSTLY CLEAR AND
QUIET NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. SOUTHERLY FLOW STARTS TO CRANK UP
AFTER 12Z IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. MOST
PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS ARRIVE BEFORE THEN WEST OF PIT.
CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR...BUT WINDS WILL PICK UP AND GUST TO BETWEEN
15 AND 25 KNOTS FROM LATE MORNING ON.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS SHOWERS...AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATER THURSDAY...AND INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 012124 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
524 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER TONIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARM THURSDAY WITH
INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
530PM UPDATE...SKIES HAVE JUST ABOUT CLEARED AS THE FLOW HAS
VEERED TO THE WEST AND THE COLD AIR ALOFT IS BEING EJECTED TO THE
NORTHEAST. SKY COVERAGE HAS BEEN ADJUSTED AS WELL AS OVERNIGHT
TEMPS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SHORTWAVE IS IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING TO THE EAST AT
PRESENT. WHAT WAS A MORE SOLID DECK OF STRATUS/STRATOCU HAS LIFTED
AND BROKEN UP INTO MAINLY HIGH CU OR LOW AC. THESE CLOUDS WILL
MOVE OUT/BREAK UP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...LEADING TO A MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS H500 RIDGE
AXIS ARRIVES BY 12Z. WITH SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER STIRRED AND
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING OFF TOO FAR. TRIED TO LEAN AT OR A
TOUCH ABOVE THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR LOW TEMPS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION INCREASE ON THURSDAY WITH H850
TEMPS CLIMBING TO +9/+10 DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP
DRIVE TEMPERATURES AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND HAVE HIGH
TEMPS NEAR THE TOP END OF GUIDANCE. PIT HAS A CHANCE TO REACH 70
DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE LAST NOVEMBER 11. THIS IS IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEM...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM
A CANADIAN LOW. EXPECTING THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO ARRIVE
TOWARDS AND AFTER SUNSET FROM THE WEST...AND DO HAVE LIKELY POPS
HERE BY 00Z. HOWEVER...SOME MEAGER INSTABILITY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
MAY POP SOME SHRA FROM LATE MORNING ON. ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR A SEVERE WEATHER
CONCERN. DESPITE THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
NOT SUGGESTING VERY DEEP MIXING...WHICH WOULD KEEP 50+ KNOT H850
WINDS LOCKED UP ALOFT. DO EXPECT SOME 25-30 KNOT GUSTS AT THE
SURFACE BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY. QPF THROUGH 00Z SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW A QUARTER INCH IN GENERAL...WITH THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
RAIN TO FOLLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT IS STILL FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES RIDE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...BRINGING
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS. THE LAST...AND MOST SIGNIFICANT WAVE THAT WILL
HELP PUSH THE FRONT TO THE EAST WILL COME LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.
WHILE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE PRESENT...AS SUGGESTED
IN THE MODEL WITH PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 1.00 INCH AND THE 1 TO
2 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS PROGGED AREAWIDE...THE LONG DURATION OF
THE EVENT SHOULD HELP TO MINIMIZE WATER PROBLEMS. HOWEVER...IF
THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...HEAVIER
RAINFALL COULD CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES. AT THIS
TIME...WILL NOT ADD ANY CONCERN FOR THIS IN THE HWO WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE FRONT AND SURFACE WAVE EXITING. A
BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS THE PRECIP ENDS. ANY
REMAINING PRECIP CHANCES...MAINLY NE OF PIT...SHOULD DIMINISH BY
AFTERNOON.

GENERALLY KEPT A COMPROMISE OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND TO LESSER EXTENT
THE NAM AND SREF FOR THE FORECAST WITH MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO
POPS AND TEMPERATURES FROM THE LAST SHIFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A TRAILING SHORTWAVE IS STILL PROGGED TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS
ALONG A SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE
SITUATION...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE...SO SLIGHT...TO CHANCE POPS WERE CONFINED TO
NORTHERN COUNTIES.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO NEAR...THEN ABOVE
THE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS IN RESPONSE TO WESTERN STATES TROUGHING.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL RISE AS THE WEEK AND TROUGH PROGRESS.

THE LONG TERM PROGNOSIS WAS PRIMARILY BASED ON ADJUSTED WPC
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PRODUCING MOSTLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. DUJ IS HOLDING ON TO SOME MVFR STRATOCUMULUS
WHICH SHOULD LIFT TO VFR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT
MOST OF THE CLOUDS TO EXIT BY 00Z...LEADING TO A MOSTLY CLEAR AND
QUIET NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. SOUTHERLY FLOW STARTS TO CRANK UP
AFTER 12Z IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. MOST
PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS ARRIVE BEFORE THEN WEST OF PIT.
CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR...BUT WINDS WILL PICK UP AND GUST TO BETWEEN
15 AND 25 KNOTS FROM LATE MORNING ON.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS SHOWERS...AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATER THURSDAY...AND INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 012054
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
454 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...AND CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FROM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~1022 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM
THE ERN GREAT LAKES SSE TO SE VA AND ERN NC. DRY...BUT MUCH COOLER
DAY THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES AVG IN THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S MOST AREAS WELL INLAND...WITH SOME LOCATIONS AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AS COOL AS THE UPPER 40S. DRY AIRMASS WITH DEW PTS
MAINLY IN THE 20S. UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING CENTERED OVER SE VA AND ERN NC...EXPECT COLDEST
TEMPERATURES TO RESIDE E OF I-95. LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST ON THE
COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE...IN THE LOWER-MID 30S FOR INTERIOR SE VA/NE
NC...MID 30S TO AROUND 40 F ELSEWHERE.

HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADSY FOR MOST OF THE ZONES THAT HAVE STARTED
THE GROWING SEASON AS OF TODAY (APRIL 1ST). THIS INCLUDES THE NE
NC COUNTIES FROM CHOWAN EAST TO THE ATLC COAST...AND CHESAPEAKE/VA
BEACH. LEFT NORFOLK AND COASTAL/OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK OUT OF IT
DUE TO SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS W/ A FEW KT OF WIND ANTICIPATED. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT COUNTIES IN THE ADSY ALONG THE SOUND AND
ALONG THE ATLC COAST (VA BEACH OCEANFRONT) WILL LIKELY BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER AND FROST IS UNLIKELY...JUST THAT WE DO NOT HAVE
THE ABILITY TO ISSUE POLYGON- BASED FROST ADVISORIES. PATCHY FROST
ALSO POSSIBLE FARTHER INLAND IN NC AND VA...BUT THESE ZONES DO NOT
START THE GROWING SEASON UNTIL APRIL 8TH OR LATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE BY MID/LATE THUS MORNING AND
A WX DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA
WILL BE WITHIN A WARMING AIRMASS AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP BY
THE AFTN. MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH AROUND 70 F UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE L/M60S AT THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

INCREASING CLOUDS THU NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE
COAST AND A MORE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. IN GENERAL...MODELS
RMN SLOWER AT BRINGING IN DEEP MOISTURE AND THE NRN STREAM AND
SRN STREAM ARE SLOWER TO PHASE. WILL CONT W/ HIGHEST POPS ON FRI
TO NNW 1/3RD OF FA BY EARLY FRI AM THROUGH FRI AFTN. VERY MILD
THU NIGHT IN SSW FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS...LOWS IN THE 50S TO
POSSIBLY AS WARM AS 60F IN A FEW SPOTS. WARM/VARIABLY CLOUDY FRI
WITH 20-30% CHC FOR -SHRA AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY TSTMS AS THE
SFC FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
M/U70S TO AROUND 80F (U60S/L70S ON THE ERN SHORE). MAIN RAIN
EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRI NIGHT...AS THE ACTUAL FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE CWA FROM NW TO SE FROM 06-12Z. NOT A LONG PERIOD
OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS FRONT HOWEVER...AND GIVEN SOME
CONTINUED MODEL DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE HIGH CHC RANGE FRI NIGHT...EXCEPT LIKELY ACRS THE
NORTH. LOWS FRI NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 50S. DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM NW
TO SE SAT MORNING...AND MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DRY AFTER 15Z. TEMPS
ALOFT COOL...BUT A DOWNSLOPE WNW FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS
MAINLY 60-65 F UNDER AFTN SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND INTO THE SERN
STATES/MID ATLANTIC REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...SLIDING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST BY SUN EVENING. ASIDE FROM SOME BREEZY NW WINDS
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST SAT NIGHT...THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL
EXPERIENCE RELATIVELY QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL BEGIN AT TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE ON
SUN (UPPER 50S TO LOW-MID 60S) AND THEN WARM 3-5 DEGREES EACH
CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S
(MID-UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST) BY TUE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
EXPERIENCE THE SAME GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S SAT NIGHT...WARMING ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES EACH NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 50S FORECAST FOR TUE NIGHT. TIMING VARIES
REGARDING WHEN THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR. THE GFS MODEL BRINGS INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE AREA MON EVENING THROUGH WED...WHILE THE ECMWF
MODEL DOES NOT BRING RAIN TO THE AREA UNTIL WED. WENT WITH A LONG
RANGE MODEL BLEND TO AVERAGE OUT RAIN CHANCES DURING THE
AFOREMENTIONED TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IS PROVIDING CLEAR SKY
AND THE WINDS ARE RELAXING AS WELL. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY.
THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BUT OVERALL...WILL
SEE VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.

OUTLOOK...THE NEXT COLD FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH FM THE NW.
SHOWERS...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS...ARE POSSIBLE FRI INTO SAT
MORNG...AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACRS THE REGION. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FLAGS CANCELLED FOR SRN COASTAL WATERS NOW THAT SEAS ARE
FINALLY FALLING BELOW 5FT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT NLY WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND REMAIN LIGHT (AOB 10KT). HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
OFF THE COAST BY THU AFTN AND THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO
TIGHTEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BREEZY S WINDS BEGIN
TO INCREASE IN NRN WATERS THU AFTN AND THEN BECOME WIDESPREAD
ACROSS ALL WATERS BY THU EVENING. SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 15-20KT WITH
GUSTS OF 20-25KT (UP TO 30 KT IN NRN COASTAL WATERS). A NEW ROUND
OF SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NRN COASTAL WATERS FROM
FENWICK ISLAND TO PARRAMORE ISLAND AND ALL OF CHES BAY BEGINNING
THU AFTN THROUGH AT LEAST FRI AFTN. COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE
ISLAND TO THE VA/NC BORDER MAY BRIEFLY REACH SCA GUSTS OF 25KT THU
EVENING...BUT THE DURATION ANTICIPATED IS NOT LONG ENOUGH TO
JUSTIFY SCA FLAGS ATTM. WAVES WILL AVERAGE 2-3FT THU AFTN THROUGH
THU NIGHT. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3FT...BUILDING TO 3-5FT NRN COASTAL
WATERS THU EVENING.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS ON FRI AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
WINDS TIGHTEN FURTHER WITH SW WINDS AVERAGING 20KT WITH GUSTS OF
25-30KT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WAVES AVERAGE 3-4FT AND SEAS BUILD TO
3-5FT ALL COASTAL WATERS BY EARLY FRI EVENING. THE FRONT CROSSES
THE WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...RESULTING IN A QUICK
SURGE OF WINDS/SEAS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONDITIONS REMAIN
WELL-ROOTED IN SCA FLAGS ON SAT IN THE POST-FRONT ENVIRONMENT AS
WINDS/GUSTS BECOME NWLY AND SEAS AVERAGE 4-6FT NORTH OF CAPE
CHARLES AND 3-5FT SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES. ONGOING SCA FLAGS FROM
THU WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH SAT...AND ANY WATERS NOT
WITHIN SCA FLAGS WILL LIKELY BE IN THEM BY EARLY FRI MORNING
(BEGINNING ROUGHLY AROUND DAYBREAK). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE REGION BY SAT EVENING AND ALL CONDITIONS (WINDS/WAVES/SEAS)
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW SCA CRITERIA. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE WATERS SUN THROUGH EARLY MON WITH SLY WINDS REMAINING
AOB 15KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER THREAT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
25 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS DROPPING BETWEEN 20 TO 30
PERCENT ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT RICHMOND FOR TUESDAY MARCH 31ST HAS BEEN
RECORDED AS 74 DEGREES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ015>017-
     031-032.
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ097-098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THURSDAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...BMD/SAM
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...BMD
FIRE WEATHER...LKB/BMD
CLIMATE...AKQ



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 012054
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
454 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...AND CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FROM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~1022 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM
THE ERN GREAT LAKES SSE TO SE VA AND ERN NC. DRY...BUT MUCH COOLER
DAY THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES AVG IN THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S MOST AREAS WELL INLAND...WITH SOME LOCATIONS AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AS COOL AS THE UPPER 40S. DRY AIRMASS WITH DEW PTS
MAINLY IN THE 20S. UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING CENTERED OVER SE VA AND ERN NC...EXPECT COLDEST
TEMPERATURES TO RESIDE E OF I-95. LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST ON THE
COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE...IN THE LOWER-MID 30S FOR INTERIOR SE VA/NE
NC...MID 30S TO AROUND 40 F ELSEWHERE.

HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADSY FOR MOST OF THE ZONES THAT HAVE STARTED
THE GROWING SEASON AS OF TODAY (APRIL 1ST). THIS INCLUDES THE NE
NC COUNTIES FROM CHOWAN EAST TO THE ATLC COAST...AND CHESAPEAKE/VA
BEACH. LEFT NORFOLK AND COASTAL/OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK OUT OF IT
DUE TO SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS W/ A FEW KT OF WIND ANTICIPATED. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT COUNTIES IN THE ADSY ALONG THE SOUND AND
ALONG THE ATLC COAST (VA BEACH OCEANFRONT) WILL LIKELY BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER AND FROST IS UNLIKELY...JUST THAT WE DO NOT HAVE
THE ABILITY TO ISSUE POLYGON- BASED FROST ADVISORIES. PATCHY FROST
ALSO POSSIBLE FARTHER INLAND IN NC AND VA...BUT THESE ZONES DO NOT
START THE GROWING SEASON UNTIL APRIL 8TH OR LATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE BY MID/LATE THUS MORNING AND
A WX DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA
WILL BE WITHIN A WARMING AIRMASS AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP BY
THE AFTN. MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH AROUND 70 F UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE L/M60S AT THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

INCREASING CLOUDS THU NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE
COAST AND A MORE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. IN GENERAL...MODELS
RMN SLOWER AT BRINGING IN DEEP MOISTURE AND THE NRN STREAM AND
SRN STREAM ARE SLOWER TO PHASE. WILL CONT W/ HIGHEST POPS ON FRI
TO NNW 1/3RD OF FA BY EARLY FRI AM THROUGH FRI AFTN. VERY MILD
THU NIGHT IN SSW FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS...LOWS IN THE 50S TO
POSSIBLY AS WARM AS 60F IN A FEW SPOTS. WARM/VARIABLY CLOUDY FRI
WITH 20-30% CHC FOR -SHRA AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY TSTMS AS THE
SFC FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
M/U70S TO AROUND 80F (U60S/L70S ON THE ERN SHORE). MAIN RAIN
EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRI NIGHT...AS THE ACTUAL FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE CWA FROM NW TO SE FROM 06-12Z. NOT A LONG PERIOD
OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS FRONT HOWEVER...AND GIVEN SOME
CONTINUED MODEL DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE HIGH CHC RANGE FRI NIGHT...EXCEPT LIKELY ACRS THE
NORTH. LOWS FRI NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 50S. DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM NW
TO SE SAT MORNING...AND MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DRY AFTER 15Z. TEMPS
ALOFT COOL...BUT A DOWNSLOPE WNW FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS
MAINLY 60-65 F UNDER AFTN SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND INTO THE SERN
STATES/MID ATLANTIC REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...SLIDING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST BY SUN EVENING. ASIDE FROM SOME BREEZY NW WINDS
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST SAT NIGHT...THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL
EXPERIENCE RELATIVELY QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL BEGIN AT TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE ON
SUN (UPPER 50S TO LOW-MID 60S) AND THEN WARM 3-5 DEGREES EACH
CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S
(MID-UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST) BY TUE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
EXPERIENCE THE SAME GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S SAT NIGHT...WARMING ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES EACH NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 50S FORECAST FOR TUE NIGHT. TIMING VARIES
REGARDING WHEN THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR. THE GFS MODEL BRINGS INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE AREA MON EVENING THROUGH WED...WHILE THE ECMWF
MODEL DOES NOT BRING RAIN TO THE AREA UNTIL WED. WENT WITH A LONG
RANGE MODEL BLEND TO AVERAGE OUT RAIN CHANCES DURING THE
AFOREMENTIONED TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IS PROVIDING CLEAR SKY
AND THE WINDS ARE RELAXING AS WELL. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY.
THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BUT OVERALL...WILL
SEE VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.

OUTLOOK...THE NEXT COLD FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH FM THE NW.
SHOWERS...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS...ARE POSSIBLE FRI INTO SAT
MORNG...AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACRS THE REGION. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FLAGS CANCELLED FOR SRN COASTAL WATERS NOW THAT SEAS ARE
FINALLY FALLING BELOW 5FT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT NLY WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND REMAIN LIGHT (AOB 10KT). HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
OFF THE COAST BY THU AFTN AND THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO
TIGHTEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BREEZY S WINDS BEGIN
TO INCREASE IN NRN WATERS THU AFTN AND THEN BECOME WIDESPREAD
ACROSS ALL WATERS BY THU EVENING. SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 15-20KT WITH
GUSTS OF 20-25KT (UP TO 30 KT IN NRN COASTAL WATERS). A NEW ROUND
OF SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NRN COASTAL WATERS FROM
FENWICK ISLAND TO PARRAMORE ISLAND AND ALL OF CHES BAY BEGINNING
THU AFTN THROUGH AT LEAST FRI AFTN. COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE
ISLAND TO THE VA/NC BORDER MAY BRIEFLY REACH SCA GUSTS OF 25KT THU
EVENING...BUT THE DURATION ANTICIPATED IS NOT LONG ENOUGH TO
JUSTIFY SCA FLAGS ATTM. WAVES WILL AVERAGE 2-3FT THU AFTN THROUGH
THU NIGHT. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3FT...BUILDING TO 3-5FT NRN COASTAL
WATERS THU EVENING.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS ON FRI AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
WINDS TIGHTEN FURTHER WITH SW WINDS AVERAGING 20KT WITH GUSTS OF
25-30KT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WAVES AVERAGE 3-4FT AND SEAS BUILD TO
3-5FT ALL COASTAL WATERS BY EARLY FRI EVENING. THE FRONT CROSSES
THE WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...RESULTING IN A QUICK
SURGE OF WINDS/SEAS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONDITIONS REMAIN
WELL-ROOTED IN SCA FLAGS ON SAT IN THE POST-FRONT ENVIRONMENT AS
WINDS/GUSTS BECOME NWLY AND SEAS AVERAGE 4-6FT NORTH OF CAPE
CHARLES AND 3-5FT SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES. ONGOING SCA FLAGS FROM
THU WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH SAT...AND ANY WATERS NOT
WITHIN SCA FLAGS WILL LIKELY BE IN THEM BY EARLY FRI MORNING
(BEGINNING ROUGHLY AROUND DAYBREAK). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE REGION BY SAT EVENING AND ALL CONDITIONS (WINDS/WAVES/SEAS)
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW SCA CRITERIA. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE WATERS SUN THROUGH EARLY MON WITH SLY WINDS REMAINING
AOB 15KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER THREAT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
25 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS DROPPING BETWEEN 20 TO 30
PERCENT ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT RICHMOND FOR TUESDAY MARCH 31ST HAS BEEN
RECORDED AS 74 DEGREES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ015>017-
     031-032.
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ097-098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THURSDAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...BMD/SAM
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...BMD
FIRE WEATHER...LKB/BMD
CLIMATE...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 012054
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
454 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...AND CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FROM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~1022 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM
THE ERN GREAT LAKES SSE TO SE VA AND ERN NC. DRY...BUT MUCH COOLER
DAY THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES AVG IN THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S MOST AREAS WELL INLAND...WITH SOME LOCATIONS AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AS COOL AS THE UPPER 40S. DRY AIRMASS WITH DEW PTS
MAINLY IN THE 20S. UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING CENTERED OVER SE VA AND ERN NC...EXPECT COLDEST
TEMPERATURES TO RESIDE E OF I-95. LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST ON THE
COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE...IN THE LOWER-MID 30S FOR INTERIOR SE VA/NE
NC...MID 30S TO AROUND 40 F ELSEWHERE.

HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADSY FOR MOST OF THE ZONES THAT HAVE STARTED
THE GROWING SEASON AS OF TODAY (APRIL 1ST). THIS INCLUDES THE NE
NC COUNTIES FROM CHOWAN EAST TO THE ATLC COAST...AND CHESAPEAKE/VA
BEACH. LEFT NORFOLK AND COASTAL/OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK OUT OF IT
DUE TO SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS W/ A FEW KT OF WIND ANTICIPATED. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT COUNTIES IN THE ADSY ALONG THE SOUND AND
ALONG THE ATLC COAST (VA BEACH OCEANFRONT) WILL LIKELY BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER AND FROST IS UNLIKELY...JUST THAT WE DO NOT HAVE
THE ABILITY TO ISSUE POLYGON- BASED FROST ADVISORIES. PATCHY FROST
ALSO POSSIBLE FARTHER INLAND IN NC AND VA...BUT THESE ZONES DO NOT
START THE GROWING SEASON UNTIL APRIL 8TH OR LATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE BY MID/LATE THUS MORNING AND
A WX DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA
WILL BE WITHIN A WARMING AIRMASS AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP BY
THE AFTN. MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH AROUND 70 F UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE L/M60S AT THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

INCREASING CLOUDS THU NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE
COAST AND A MORE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. IN GENERAL...MODELS
RMN SLOWER AT BRINGING IN DEEP MOISTURE AND THE NRN STREAM AND
SRN STREAM ARE SLOWER TO PHASE. WILL CONT W/ HIGHEST POPS ON FRI
TO NNW 1/3RD OF FA BY EARLY FRI AM THROUGH FRI AFTN. VERY MILD
THU NIGHT IN SSW FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS...LOWS IN THE 50S TO
POSSIBLY AS WARM AS 60F IN A FEW SPOTS. WARM/VARIABLY CLOUDY FRI
WITH 20-30% CHC FOR -SHRA AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY TSTMS AS THE
SFC FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
M/U70S TO AROUND 80F (U60S/L70S ON THE ERN SHORE). MAIN RAIN
EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRI NIGHT...AS THE ACTUAL FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE CWA FROM NW TO SE FROM 06-12Z. NOT A LONG PERIOD
OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS FRONT HOWEVER...AND GIVEN SOME
CONTINUED MODEL DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE HIGH CHC RANGE FRI NIGHT...EXCEPT LIKELY ACRS THE
NORTH. LOWS FRI NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 50S. DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM NW
TO SE SAT MORNING...AND MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DRY AFTER 15Z. TEMPS
ALOFT COOL...BUT A DOWNSLOPE WNW FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS
MAINLY 60-65 F UNDER AFTN SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND INTO THE SERN
STATES/MID ATLANTIC REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...SLIDING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST BY SUN EVENING. ASIDE FROM SOME BREEZY NW WINDS
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST SAT NIGHT...THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL
EXPERIENCE RELATIVELY QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL BEGIN AT TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE ON
SUN (UPPER 50S TO LOW-MID 60S) AND THEN WARM 3-5 DEGREES EACH
CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S
(MID-UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST) BY TUE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
EXPERIENCE THE SAME GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S SAT NIGHT...WARMING ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES EACH NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 50S FORECAST FOR TUE NIGHT. TIMING VARIES
REGARDING WHEN THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR. THE GFS MODEL BRINGS INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE AREA MON EVENING THROUGH WED...WHILE THE ECMWF
MODEL DOES NOT BRING RAIN TO THE AREA UNTIL WED. WENT WITH A LONG
RANGE MODEL BLEND TO AVERAGE OUT RAIN CHANCES DURING THE
AFOREMENTIONED TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IS PROVIDING CLEAR SKY
AND THE WINDS ARE RELAXING AS WELL. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY.
THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BUT OVERALL...WILL
SEE VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.

OUTLOOK...THE NEXT COLD FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH FM THE NW.
SHOWERS...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS...ARE POSSIBLE FRI INTO SAT
MORNG...AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACRS THE REGION. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FLAGS CANCELLED FOR SRN COASTAL WATERS NOW THAT SEAS ARE
FINALLY FALLING BELOW 5FT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT NLY WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND REMAIN LIGHT (AOB 10KT). HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
OFF THE COAST BY THU AFTN AND THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO
TIGHTEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BREEZY S WINDS BEGIN
TO INCREASE IN NRN WATERS THU AFTN AND THEN BECOME WIDESPREAD
ACROSS ALL WATERS BY THU EVENING. SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 15-20KT WITH
GUSTS OF 20-25KT (UP TO 30 KT IN NRN COASTAL WATERS). A NEW ROUND
OF SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NRN COASTAL WATERS FROM
FENWICK ISLAND TO PARRAMORE ISLAND AND ALL OF CHES BAY BEGINNING
THU AFTN THROUGH AT LEAST FRI AFTN. COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE
ISLAND TO THE VA/NC BORDER MAY BRIEFLY REACH SCA GUSTS OF 25KT THU
EVENING...BUT THE DURATION ANTICIPATED IS NOT LONG ENOUGH TO
JUSTIFY SCA FLAGS ATTM. WAVES WILL AVERAGE 2-3FT THU AFTN THROUGH
THU NIGHT. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3FT...BUILDING TO 3-5FT NRN COASTAL
WATERS THU EVENING.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS ON FRI AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
WINDS TIGHTEN FURTHER WITH SW WINDS AVERAGING 20KT WITH GUSTS OF
25-30KT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WAVES AVERAGE 3-4FT AND SEAS BUILD TO
3-5FT ALL COASTAL WATERS BY EARLY FRI EVENING. THE FRONT CROSSES
THE WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...RESULTING IN A QUICK
SURGE OF WINDS/SEAS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONDITIONS REMAIN
WELL-ROOTED IN SCA FLAGS ON SAT IN THE POST-FRONT ENVIRONMENT AS
WINDS/GUSTS BECOME NWLY AND SEAS AVERAGE 4-6FT NORTH OF CAPE
CHARLES AND 3-5FT SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES. ONGOING SCA FLAGS FROM
THU WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH SAT...AND ANY WATERS NOT
WITHIN SCA FLAGS WILL LIKELY BE IN THEM BY EARLY FRI MORNING
(BEGINNING ROUGHLY AROUND DAYBREAK). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE REGION BY SAT EVENING AND ALL CONDITIONS (WINDS/WAVES/SEAS)
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW SCA CRITERIA. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE WATERS SUN THROUGH EARLY MON WITH SLY WINDS REMAINING
AOB 15KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER THREAT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
25 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS DROPPING BETWEEN 20 TO 30
PERCENT ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT RICHMOND FOR TUESDAY MARCH 31ST HAS BEEN
RECORDED AS 74 DEGREES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ015>017-
     031-032.
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ097-098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THURSDAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...BMD/SAM
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...BMD
FIRE WEATHER...LKB/BMD
CLIMATE...AKQ



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011959
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
359 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...AND CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FROM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~1022 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM
THE ERN GREAT LAKES SSE TO SE VA AND ERN NC. DRY...BUT MUCH COOLER
DAY THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES AVG IN THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S MOST AREAS WELL INLAND...WITH SOME LOCATIONS AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AS COOL AS THE UPPER 40S. DRY AIRMASS WITH DEW PTS
MAINLY IN THE 20S. UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING CENTERED OVER SE VA AND ERN NC...EXPECT COLDEST
TEMPERATURES TO RESIDE E OF I-95. LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST ON THE
COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE...IN THE LOWER-MID 30S FOR INTERIOR SE VA/NE
NC...MID 30S TO AROUND 40 F ELSEWHERE.

HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADSY FOR MOST OF THE ZONES THAT HAVE STARTED
THE GROWING SEASON AS OF TODAY (APRIL 1ST). THIS INCLUDES THE NE
NC COUNTIES FROM CHOWAN EAST TO THE ATLC COAST...AND CHESAPEAKE/VA
BEACH. LEFT NORFOLK AND COASTAL/OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK OUT OF IT
DUE TO SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS W/ A FEW KT OF WIND ANTICIPATED. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT COUNTIES IN THE ADSY ALONG THE SOUND AND
ALONG THE ATLC COAST (VA BEACH OCEANFRONT) WILL LIKELY BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER AND FROST IS UNLIKELY...JUST THAT WE DO NOT HAVE
THE ABILITY TO ISSUE POLYGON- BASED FROST ADVISORIES. PATCHY FROST
ALSO POSSIBLE FARTHER INLAND IN NC AND VA...BUT THESE ZONES DO NOT
START THE GROWING SEASON UNTIL APRIL 8TH OR LATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE BY MID/LATE THUS MORNING AND
A WX DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA
WILL BE WITHIN A WARMING AIRMASS AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP BY
THE AFTN. MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH AROUND 70 F UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE L/M60S AT THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

INCREASING CLOUDS THU NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE
COAST AND A MORE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. IN GENERAL...MODELS
RMN SLOWER AT BRINGING IN DEEP MOISTURE AND THE NRN STREAM AND
SRN STREAM ARE SLOWER TO PHASE. WILL CONT W/ HIGHEST POPS ON FRI
TO NNW 1/3RD OF FA BY EARLY FRI AM THROUGH FRI AFTN. VERY MILD
THU NIGHT IN SSW FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS...LOWS IN THE 50S TO
POSSIBLY AS WARM AS 60F IN A FEW SPOTS. WARM/VARIABLY CLOUDY FRI
WITH 20-30% CHC FOR -SHRA AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY TSTMS AS THE
SFC FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
M/U70S TO AROUND 80F (U60S/L70S ON THE ERN SHORE). MAIN RAIN
EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRI NIGHT...AS THE ACTUAL FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE CWA FROM NW TO SE FROM 06-12Z. NOT A LONG PERIOD
OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS FRONT HOWEVER...AND GIVEN SOME
CONTINUED MODEL DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE HIGH CHC RANGE FRI NIGHT...EXCEPT LIKELY ACRS THE
NORTH. LOWS FRI NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 50S. DRY AIR MOVES IN FROMNW
TO SE SAT MORNING...AND MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DRY AFTER 15Z. TEMPS
ALOFT COOL...BUT A DOWNSLOPE WNW FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS
MAINLY 60-65 F UNDER AFTN SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WET AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FRI NIGHT...THEN OFF THE CST SAT MRNG. STILL SOME MINOR
SPATIAL AND TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WRT ASSOCIATED SRN
STREAM ENERGY AND THE COLD FRONT...BUT MOSTLY NOW WITH HOW QUICK
PRECIP CLEARS THE COAST SAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FRI
NIGHT...EXCEPT THE SE. THETA-E ADVECTION AND MILD TEMPS WILL
RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY FRI EVENING. SOUNDINGS ALSO
INDICATE SHARPENING LAPSE RATES AS TEMPS ALOFT COOL. WILL
INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI EVENING. COLD FRONT EXITS THE
COAST SAT MRNG AS THE PARENT LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFT INTO
THE NE STATES/CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST SAT AFTN...REMAINING OVER THE REGION THRU SUN. THE RESULT
WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SAT-SUN GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S INLAND AND
MID-UPPER 50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER SERN
CANADA THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
OFFSHORE SUN AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES.
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF BEGINS TO SPREAD BACK NWD INTO THE MIDWEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE WLY FLOW CROSS THE
REGION. BEGIN TO REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE- LOW END CHANCE POPS
TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGHS MON IN THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AND UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 40S-LOW 50S. HIGHS TUES IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID-UPPER
60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IS PROVIDING CLEAR SKY
AND THE WINDS ARE RELAXING AS WELL. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY.
THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BUT OVERALL...WILL
SEE VFR CONDITONS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.

OUTLOOK...THE NEXT COLD FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH FM THE NW.
SHOWERS...WITH MVFR CONDTIONS...ARE POSSIBLE FRI INTO SAT
MORNG...AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACRS THE REGION. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...SCA EXTENDED FOR SRN CHES BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND UNTIL
1 PM DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AROUND 20 KT. ALSO EXTENDED SCA FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS FOR SEAS AT 5 FT. WILL MONITOR DOWNWARD TRENDS TO
SEE IF ANOTHER EXTENSION IS NEEDED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL
LATER THIS AFTN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HI PRES WILL BLD INTO THE AREA FM THE NW
TODAY...THEN WILL SLIDE OFF THE CST ON THU. STRONG N OR NW WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT WILL OCCUR THRU THIS MORNG.
SEAS WILL BLD TO 3 TO 5 FT OVR THE CSTL WTRS...AND WAVES WILL BLD
TO 3 TO 4 FT OVR THE CHES BAY. THUS...SCA`S WILL REMAIN UP OVR THE
WTRS UNTIL 10 AM OR NOON. WINDS/SEAS WILL DIMINISH/SUBSIDE THIS
AFTN INTO THIS EVENG...AS THE HI BLDS RIGHT OVR THE WTRS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE LATER TNGT AND THU...WITH FLOW
RETURNING TO THE S AOB 15 KT. SLY WINDS INCREASE THU...AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THURS-THURS EVENING WITH SLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT.
SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS ALSO PROGGED TO REACH 5 FT. FLOW BECOMES SW
FRI...AS THE FRONT HANGS UP ALONG THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. FRONT
FINALLY CROSSES THE WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNG.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT RICHMOND FOR TUESDAY MARCH 31ST HAS BEEN
RECORDED AS 74 DEGREES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ015>017-
     031-032.
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ097-098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THURSDAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...BMD/SAM
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...BMD/TMG
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011959
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
359 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...AND CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FROM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~1022 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM
THE ERN GREAT LAKES SSE TO SE VA AND ERN NC. DRY...BUT MUCH COOLER
DAY THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES AVG IN THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S MOST AREAS WELL INLAND...WITH SOME LOCATIONS AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AS COOL AS THE UPPER 40S. DRY AIRMASS WITH DEW PTS
MAINLY IN THE 20S. UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING CENTERED OVER SE VA AND ERN NC...EXPECT COLDEST
TEMPERATURES TO RESIDE E OF I-95. LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST ON THE
COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE...IN THE LOWER-MID 30S FOR INTERIOR SE VA/NE
NC...MID 30S TO AROUND 40 F ELSEWHERE.

HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADSY FOR MOST OF THE ZONES THAT HAVE STARTED
THE GROWING SEASON AS OF TODAY (APRIL 1ST). THIS INCLUDES THE NE
NC COUNTIES FROM CHOWAN EAST TO THE ATLC COAST...AND CHESAPEAKE/VA
BEACH. LEFT NORFOLK AND COASTAL/OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK OUT OF IT
DUE TO SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS W/ A FEW KT OF WIND ANTICIPATED. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT COUNTIES IN THE ADSY ALONG THE SOUND AND
ALONG THE ATLC COAST (VA BEACH OCEANFRONT) WILL LIKELY BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER AND FROST IS UNLIKELY...JUST THAT WE DO NOT HAVE
THE ABILITY TO ISSUE POLYGON- BASED FROST ADVISORIES. PATCHY FROST
ALSO POSSIBLE FARTHER INLAND IN NC AND VA...BUT THESE ZONES DO NOT
START THE GROWING SEASON UNTIL APRIL 8TH OR LATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE BY MID/LATE THUS MORNING AND
A WX DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA
WILL BE WITHIN A WARMING AIRMASS AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP BY
THE AFTN. MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH AROUND 70 F UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE L/M60S AT THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

INCREASING CLOUDS THU NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE
COAST AND A MORE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. IN GENERAL...MODELS
RMN SLOWER AT BRINGING IN DEEP MOISTURE AND THE NRN STREAM AND
SRN STREAM ARE SLOWER TO PHASE. WILL CONT W/ HIGHEST POPS ON FRI
TO NNW 1/3RD OF FA BY EARLY FRI AM THROUGH FRI AFTN. VERY MILD
THU NIGHT IN SSW FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS...LOWS IN THE 50S TO
POSSIBLY AS WARM AS 60F IN A FEW SPOTS. WARM/VARIABLY CLOUDY FRI
WITH 20-30% CHC FOR -SHRA AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY TSTMS AS THE
SFC FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
M/U70S TO AROUND 80F (U60S/L70S ON THE ERN SHORE). MAIN RAIN
EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRI NIGHT...AS THE ACTUAL FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE CWA FROM NW TO SE FROM 06-12Z. NOT A LONG PERIOD
OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS FRONT HOWEVER...AND GIVEN SOME
CONTINUED MODEL DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE HIGH CHC RANGE FRI NIGHT...EXCEPT LIKELY ACRS THE
NORTH. LOWS FRI NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 50S. DRY AIR MOVES IN FROMNW
TO SE SAT MORNING...AND MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DRY AFTER 15Z. TEMPS
ALOFT COOL...BUT A DOWNSLOPE WNW FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS
MAINLY 60-65 F UNDER AFTN SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WET AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FRI NIGHT...THEN OFF THE CST SAT MRNG. STILL SOME MINOR
SPATIAL AND TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WRT ASSOCIATED SRN
STREAM ENERGY AND THE COLD FRONT...BUT MOSTLY NOW WITH HOW QUICK
PRECIP CLEARS THE COAST SAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FRI
NIGHT...EXCEPT THE SE. THETA-E ADVECTION AND MILD TEMPS WILL
RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY FRI EVENING. SOUNDINGS ALSO
INDICATE SHARPENING LAPSE RATES AS TEMPS ALOFT COOL. WILL
INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI EVENING. COLD FRONT EXITS THE
COAST SAT MRNG AS THE PARENT LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFT INTO
THE NE STATES/CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST SAT AFTN...REMAINING OVER THE REGION THRU SUN. THE RESULT
WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SAT-SUN GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S INLAND AND
MID-UPPER 50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER SERN
CANADA THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
OFFSHORE SUN AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES.
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF BEGINS TO SPREAD BACK NWD INTO THE MIDWEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE WLY FLOW CROSS THE
REGION. BEGIN TO REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE- LOW END CHANCE POPS
TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGHS MON IN THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AND UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 40S-LOW 50S. HIGHS TUES IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID-UPPER
60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IS PROVIDING CLEAR SKY
AND THE WINDS ARE RELAXING AS WELL. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY.
THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BUT OVERALL...WILL
SEE VFR CONDITONS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.

OUTLOOK...THE NEXT COLD FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH FM THE NW.
SHOWERS...WITH MVFR CONDTIONS...ARE POSSIBLE FRI INTO SAT
MORNG...AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACRS THE REGION. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...SCA EXTENDED FOR SRN CHES BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND UNTIL
1 PM DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AROUND 20 KT. ALSO EXTENDED SCA FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS FOR SEAS AT 5 FT. WILL MONITOR DOWNWARD TRENDS TO
SEE IF ANOTHER EXTENSION IS NEEDED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL
LATER THIS AFTN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HI PRES WILL BLD INTO THE AREA FM THE NW
TODAY...THEN WILL SLIDE OFF THE CST ON THU. STRONG N OR NW WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT WILL OCCUR THRU THIS MORNG.
SEAS WILL BLD TO 3 TO 5 FT OVR THE CSTL WTRS...AND WAVES WILL BLD
TO 3 TO 4 FT OVR THE CHES BAY. THUS...SCA`S WILL REMAIN UP OVR THE
WTRS UNTIL 10 AM OR NOON. WINDS/SEAS WILL DIMINISH/SUBSIDE THIS
AFTN INTO THIS EVENG...AS THE HI BLDS RIGHT OVR THE WTRS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE LATER TNGT AND THU...WITH FLOW
RETURNING TO THE S AOB 15 KT. SLY WINDS INCREASE THU...AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THURS-THURS EVENING WITH SLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT.
SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS ALSO PROGGED TO REACH 5 FT. FLOW BECOMES SW
FRI...AS THE FRONT HANGS UP ALONG THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. FRONT
FINALLY CROSSES THE WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNG.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT RICHMOND FOR TUESDAY MARCH 31ST HAS BEEN
RECORDED AS 74 DEGREES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ015>017-
     031-032.
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ097-098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THURSDAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...BMD/SAM
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...BMD/TMG
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011959
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
359 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...AND CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FROM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~1022 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM
THE ERN GREAT LAKES SSE TO SE VA AND ERN NC. DRY...BUT MUCH COOLER
DAY THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES AVG IN THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S MOST AREAS WELL INLAND...WITH SOME LOCATIONS AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AS COOL AS THE UPPER 40S. DRY AIRMASS WITH DEW PTS
MAINLY IN THE 20S. UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING CENTERED OVER SE VA AND ERN NC...EXPECT COLDEST
TEMPERATURES TO RESIDE E OF I-95. LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST ON THE
COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE...IN THE LOWER-MID 30S FOR INTERIOR SE VA/NE
NC...MID 30S TO AROUND 40 F ELSEWHERE.

HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADSY FOR MOST OF THE ZONES THAT HAVE STARTED
THE GROWING SEASON AS OF TODAY (APRIL 1ST). THIS INCLUDES THE NE
NC COUNTIES FROM CHOWAN EAST TO THE ATLC COAST...AND CHESAPEAKE/VA
BEACH. LEFT NORFOLK AND COASTAL/OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK OUT OF IT
DUE TO SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS W/ A FEW KT OF WIND ANTICIPATED. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT COUNTIES IN THE ADSY ALONG THE SOUND AND
ALONG THE ATLC COAST (VA BEACH OCEANFRONT) WILL LIKELY BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER AND FROST IS UNLIKELY...JUST THAT WE DO NOT HAVE
THE ABILITY TO ISSUE POLYGON- BASED FROST ADVISORIES. PATCHY FROST
ALSO POSSIBLE FARTHER INLAND IN NC AND VA...BUT THESE ZONES DO NOT
START THE GROWING SEASON UNTIL APRIL 8TH OR LATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE BY MID/LATE THUS MORNING AND
A WX DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA
WILL BE WITHIN A WARMING AIRMASS AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP BY
THE AFTN. MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH AROUND 70 F UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE L/M60S AT THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

INCREASING CLOUDS THU NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE
COAST AND A MORE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. IN GENERAL...MODELS
RMN SLOWER AT BRINGING IN DEEP MOISTURE AND THE NRN STREAM AND
SRN STREAM ARE SLOWER TO PHASE. WILL CONT W/ HIGHEST POPS ON FRI
TO NNW 1/3RD OF FA BY EARLY FRI AM THROUGH FRI AFTN. VERY MILD
THU NIGHT IN SSW FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS...LOWS IN THE 50S TO
POSSIBLY AS WARM AS 60F IN A FEW SPOTS. WARM/VARIABLY CLOUDY FRI
WITH 20-30% CHC FOR -SHRA AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY TSTMS AS THE
SFC FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
M/U70S TO AROUND 80F (U60S/L70S ON THE ERN SHORE). MAIN RAIN
EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRI NIGHT...AS THE ACTUAL FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE CWA FROM NW TO SE FROM 06-12Z. NOT A LONG PERIOD
OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS FRONT HOWEVER...AND GIVEN SOME
CONTINUED MODEL DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE HIGH CHC RANGE FRI NIGHT...EXCEPT LIKELY ACRS THE
NORTH. LOWS FRI NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 50S. DRY AIR MOVES IN FROMNW
TO SE SAT MORNING...AND MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DRY AFTER 15Z. TEMPS
ALOFT COOL...BUT A DOWNSLOPE WNW FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS
MAINLY 60-65 F UNDER AFTN SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WET AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FRI NIGHT...THEN OFF THE CST SAT MRNG. STILL SOME MINOR
SPATIAL AND TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WRT ASSOCIATED SRN
STREAM ENERGY AND THE COLD FRONT...BUT MOSTLY NOW WITH HOW QUICK
PRECIP CLEARS THE COAST SAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FRI
NIGHT...EXCEPT THE SE. THETA-E ADVECTION AND MILD TEMPS WILL
RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY FRI EVENING. SOUNDINGS ALSO
INDICATE SHARPENING LAPSE RATES AS TEMPS ALOFT COOL. WILL
INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI EVENING. COLD FRONT EXITS THE
COAST SAT MRNG AS THE PARENT LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFT INTO
THE NE STATES/CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST SAT AFTN...REMAINING OVER THE REGION THRU SUN. THE RESULT
WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SAT-SUN GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S INLAND AND
MID-UPPER 50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER SERN
CANADA THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
OFFSHORE SUN AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES.
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF BEGINS TO SPREAD BACK NWD INTO THE MIDWEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE WLY FLOW CROSS THE
REGION. BEGIN TO REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE- LOW END CHANCE POPS
TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGHS MON IN THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AND UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 40S-LOW 50S. HIGHS TUES IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID-UPPER
60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IS PROVIDING CLEAR SKY
AND THE WINDS ARE RELAXING AS WELL. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY.
THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BUT OVERALL...WILL
SEE VFR CONDITONS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.

OUTLOOK...THE NEXT COLD FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH FM THE NW.
SHOWERS...WITH MVFR CONDTIONS...ARE POSSIBLE FRI INTO SAT
MORNG...AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACRS THE REGION. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...SCA EXTENDED FOR SRN CHES BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND UNTIL
1 PM DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AROUND 20 KT. ALSO EXTENDED SCA FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS FOR SEAS AT 5 FT. WILL MONITOR DOWNWARD TRENDS TO
SEE IF ANOTHER EXTENSION IS NEEDED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL
LATER THIS AFTN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HI PRES WILL BLD INTO THE AREA FM THE NW
TODAY...THEN WILL SLIDE OFF THE CST ON THU. STRONG N OR NW WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT WILL OCCUR THRU THIS MORNG.
SEAS WILL BLD TO 3 TO 5 FT OVR THE CSTL WTRS...AND WAVES WILL BLD
TO 3 TO 4 FT OVR THE CHES BAY. THUS...SCA`S WILL REMAIN UP OVR THE
WTRS UNTIL 10 AM OR NOON. WINDS/SEAS WILL DIMINISH/SUBSIDE THIS
AFTN INTO THIS EVENG...AS THE HI BLDS RIGHT OVR THE WTRS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE LATER TNGT AND THU...WITH FLOW
RETURNING TO THE S AOB 15 KT. SLY WINDS INCREASE THU...AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THURS-THURS EVENING WITH SLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT.
SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS ALSO PROGGED TO REACH 5 FT. FLOW BECOMES SW
FRI...AS THE FRONT HANGS UP ALONG THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. FRONT
FINALLY CROSSES THE WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNG.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT RICHMOND FOR TUESDAY MARCH 31ST HAS BEEN
RECORDED AS 74 DEGREES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ015>017-
     031-032.
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ097-098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THURSDAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...BMD/SAM
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...BMD/TMG
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011959
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
359 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...AND CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FROM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~1022 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM
THE ERN GREAT LAKES SSE TO SE VA AND ERN NC. DRY...BUT MUCH COOLER
DAY THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES AVG IN THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S MOST AREAS WELL INLAND...WITH SOME LOCATIONS AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AS COOL AS THE UPPER 40S. DRY AIRMASS WITH DEW PTS
MAINLY IN THE 20S. UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING CENTERED OVER SE VA AND ERN NC...EXPECT COLDEST
TEMPERATURES TO RESIDE E OF I-95. LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST ON THE
COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE...IN THE LOWER-MID 30S FOR INTERIOR SE VA/NE
NC...MID 30S TO AROUND 40 F ELSEWHERE.

HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADSY FOR MOST OF THE ZONES THAT HAVE STARTED
THE GROWING SEASON AS OF TODAY (APRIL 1ST). THIS INCLUDES THE NE
NC COUNTIES FROM CHOWAN EAST TO THE ATLC COAST...AND CHESAPEAKE/VA
BEACH. LEFT NORFOLK AND COASTAL/OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK OUT OF IT
DUE TO SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS W/ A FEW KT OF WIND ANTICIPATED. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT COUNTIES IN THE ADSY ALONG THE SOUND AND
ALONG THE ATLC COAST (VA BEACH OCEANFRONT) WILL LIKELY BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER AND FROST IS UNLIKELY...JUST THAT WE DO NOT HAVE
THE ABILITY TO ISSUE POLYGON- BASED FROST ADVISORIES. PATCHY FROST
ALSO POSSIBLE FARTHER INLAND IN NC AND VA...BUT THESE ZONES DO NOT
START THE GROWING SEASON UNTIL APRIL 8TH OR LATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE BY MID/LATE THUS MORNING AND
A WX DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA
WILL BE WITHIN A WARMING AIRMASS AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP BY
THE AFTN. MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH AROUND 70 F UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE L/M60S AT THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

INCREASING CLOUDS THU NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE
COAST AND A MORE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. IN GENERAL...MODELS
RMN SLOWER AT BRINGING IN DEEP MOISTURE AND THE NRN STREAM AND
SRN STREAM ARE SLOWER TO PHASE. WILL CONT W/ HIGHEST POPS ON FRI
TO NNW 1/3RD OF FA BY EARLY FRI AM THROUGH FRI AFTN. VERY MILD
THU NIGHT IN SSW FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS...LOWS IN THE 50S TO
POSSIBLY AS WARM AS 60F IN A FEW SPOTS. WARM/VARIABLY CLOUDY FRI
WITH 20-30% CHC FOR -SHRA AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY TSTMS AS THE
SFC FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
M/U70S TO AROUND 80F (U60S/L70S ON THE ERN SHORE). MAIN RAIN
EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRI NIGHT...AS THE ACTUAL FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE CWA FROM NW TO SE FROM 06-12Z. NOT A LONG PERIOD
OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS FRONT HOWEVER...AND GIVEN SOME
CONTINUED MODEL DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE HIGH CHC RANGE FRI NIGHT...EXCEPT LIKELY ACRS THE
NORTH. LOWS FRI NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 50S. DRY AIR MOVES IN FROMNW
TO SE SAT MORNING...AND MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DRY AFTER 15Z. TEMPS
ALOFT COOL...BUT A DOWNSLOPE WNW FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS
MAINLY 60-65 F UNDER AFTN SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WET AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FRI NIGHT...THEN OFF THE CST SAT MRNG. STILL SOME MINOR
SPATIAL AND TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WRT ASSOCIATED SRN
STREAM ENERGY AND THE COLD FRONT...BUT MOSTLY NOW WITH HOW QUICK
PRECIP CLEARS THE COAST SAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FRI
NIGHT...EXCEPT THE SE. THETA-E ADVECTION AND MILD TEMPS WILL
RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY FRI EVENING. SOUNDINGS ALSO
INDICATE SHARPENING LAPSE RATES AS TEMPS ALOFT COOL. WILL
INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI EVENING. COLD FRONT EXITS THE
COAST SAT MRNG AS THE PARENT LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFT INTO
THE NE STATES/CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST SAT AFTN...REMAINING OVER THE REGION THRU SUN. THE RESULT
WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SAT-SUN GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S INLAND AND
MID-UPPER 50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER SERN
CANADA THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
OFFSHORE SUN AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES.
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF BEGINS TO SPREAD BACK NWD INTO THE MIDWEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE WLY FLOW CROSS THE
REGION. BEGIN TO REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE- LOW END CHANCE POPS
TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGHS MON IN THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AND UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 40S-LOW 50S. HIGHS TUES IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID-UPPER
60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IS PROVIDING CLEAR SKY
AND THE WINDS ARE RELAXING AS WELL. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY.
THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BUT OVERALL...WILL
SEE VFR CONDITONS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.

OUTLOOK...THE NEXT COLD FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH FM THE NW.
SHOWERS...WITH MVFR CONDTIONS...ARE POSSIBLE FRI INTO SAT
MORNG...AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACRS THE REGION. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...SCA EXTENDED FOR SRN CHES BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND UNTIL
1 PM DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AROUND 20 KT. ALSO EXTENDED SCA FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS FOR SEAS AT 5 FT. WILL MONITOR DOWNWARD TRENDS TO
SEE IF ANOTHER EXTENSION IS NEEDED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL
LATER THIS AFTN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HI PRES WILL BLD INTO THE AREA FM THE NW
TODAY...THEN WILL SLIDE OFF THE CST ON THU. STRONG N OR NW WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT WILL OCCUR THRU THIS MORNG.
SEAS WILL BLD TO 3 TO 5 FT OVR THE CSTL WTRS...AND WAVES WILL BLD
TO 3 TO 4 FT OVR THE CHES BAY. THUS...SCA`S WILL REMAIN UP OVR THE
WTRS UNTIL 10 AM OR NOON. WINDS/SEAS WILL DIMINISH/SUBSIDE THIS
AFTN INTO THIS EVENG...AS THE HI BLDS RIGHT OVR THE WTRS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE LATER TNGT AND THU...WITH FLOW
RETURNING TO THE S AOB 15 KT. SLY WINDS INCREASE THU...AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THURS-THURS EVENING WITH SLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT.
SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS ALSO PROGGED TO REACH 5 FT. FLOW BECOMES SW
FRI...AS THE FRONT HANGS UP ALONG THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. FRONT
FINALLY CROSSES THE WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNG.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT RICHMOND FOR TUESDAY MARCH 31ST HAS BEEN
RECORDED AS 74 DEGREES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ015>017-
     031-032.
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ097-098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THURSDAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...BMD/SAM
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...BMD/TMG
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 011930
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
330 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FRIDAY, WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY,
WHILE A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FRONT MAY
STALL NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH SEVERAL
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE SKY OVER OUR REGION WAS MOSTLY SUNNY AT MID AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S WITH A
NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 MPH. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO CREST
OVER OUR REGION THIS EVENING BEFORE MOVING OUT TO SEA LATE
TONIGHT.

THE SKY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR FOR TONIGHT. THE CLOUDS
THAT WERE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD DISSIPATE A BIT AS THEY MOVE TO THE EAST AND INTO RELATIVELY
DRY AIR. HOWEVER, A FEW PATCHES OF CLOUD COVER MAY OVERCOME THE
DRYING AND THEY COULD DRIFT OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE
NIGHT.

THE WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR TONIGHT AS
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PASSES OVER OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP DUE TO THE NEARLY IDEAL RADIATING CONDITIONS. WE
ARE FORECASTING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S WITH SOME READINGS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S
POSSIBLE UP NORTH DUE TO THE SNOW COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING FARTHER OUT TO SEA
ON THURSDAY. THE AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PASS
OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY
MORNING, OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DURING
THE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

A STIFF SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH BREEZE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
15 TO 20 MPH FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. THE
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH FLOW WILL DRAW MILD AIR INTO OUR REGION. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE 60S IN MUCH OF OUR
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT, SETTING UP THE
BEGINNING OF A WET PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT DOES NOT
LOOK TO MAKE IT FULLY INTO OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AS IT MAY STALL
JUST TO OUR NORTH, WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT, FINALLY PULLING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SEVERAL VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL BE
TRAVERSING THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, WHICH WILL LEAD TO
SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE
REMAINS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS A PORTION OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM, SO WE WILL KEEP A MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONG
INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER, IF THUNDERSTORMS DO OCCUR, THEY COULD
PRODUCE SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS. ACTUALLY, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
FRIDAY MAY BE A GUSTY DAY IN GENERAL DUE TO THE SYNOPTIC PRESSURE
GRADIENT. AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA TO CHANGE
THE RAIN OVER TO SNOW FOR A PERIOD ACROSS THE POCONOS.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MOVED PAST THE AREA BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY,
BUT WE EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO END THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS
THE LOW MOVES WELL TO OUR NORTH, STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA, LEADING TO A GUSTY DAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH.
THE STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD BEGIN TO DROP OFF OVERNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRONT THE NORTH, BUT
MAY NOT FULLY MAKE IT ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONT MAY STALL JUST TO
THE NORTH. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN LIFT TO OUR NORTHEAST
EARLY MONDAY WHEN THE FRONT MAY FINALLY PUSH ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER, THIS IS WHEN THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITH THE LONG TERM
MODELS. THE GFS ENDS UP LIFTING THIS FRONT BACK NORTHWARD MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BEFORE PROGRESSIVELY MOVING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OUT OF THE MID-WEST AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA FOR
MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY, BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE DIFFERENCE IN MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE FACT ITS STILL PRETTY
FAR OUT, WE`VE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE WHICH MORE CLOSELY
RESEMBLES THE ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES. THAT BEING SAID, THE EARLY TO
MID PART OF NEXT WEEK COULD BE UNSETTLED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY.

A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS INTO THE EARLY EVENING SHOULD
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER DARK. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THURSDAY. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST
TO INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS
WITH SHOWERS LIKELY; THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS 20-30 KNOTS FRIDAY.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KNOTS
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TONIGHT. A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME VARIABLE AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ON
THURSDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW WELL THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MIX WITH THE MILD AIR PASSING OVER THE VERY CHILLY
WATER. IT IS LIKELY THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT REACH THEIR FULL
POTENTIAL.

WE WILL BEGIN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT 200 PM THURSDAY. ADMITTEDLY,
WE MAY BE A LITTLE EARLY FOR MOST OF OUR MARINE AREA. HOWEVER, NEAR
SHORE GUSTS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH 25 KNOTS AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
THAT TIME.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AFFECT THE AREA AND MOVE THROUGH.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...WINDS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE ARE FORECASTING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND INCREASING TO 15 TO
20 MPH FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH
AT THAT TIME. ALSO, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
AROUND 30 PERCENT AND FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE.

THERE MAY BE AN ENHANCED THREAT OF WILDFIRE SPREAD ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, EXCEPT FOR THOSE AREAS THAT STILL HAVE SNOW COVER. WE
WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY SPECIAL FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER, WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
FIRE WEATHER...IOVINO




000
FXUS61 KPHI 011930
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
330 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FRIDAY, WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY,
WHILE A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FRONT MAY
STALL NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH SEVERAL
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE SKY OVER OUR REGION WAS MOSTLY SUNNY AT MID AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S WITH A
NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 MPH. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO CREST
OVER OUR REGION THIS EVENING BEFORE MOVING OUT TO SEA LATE
TONIGHT.

THE SKY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR FOR TONIGHT. THE CLOUDS
THAT WERE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD DISSIPATE A BIT AS THEY MOVE TO THE EAST AND INTO RELATIVELY
DRY AIR. HOWEVER, A FEW PATCHES OF CLOUD COVER MAY OVERCOME THE
DRYING AND THEY COULD DRIFT OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE
NIGHT.

THE WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR TONIGHT AS
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PASSES OVER OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP DUE TO THE NEARLY IDEAL RADIATING CONDITIONS. WE
ARE FORECASTING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S WITH SOME READINGS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S
POSSIBLE UP NORTH DUE TO THE SNOW COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING FARTHER OUT TO SEA
ON THURSDAY. THE AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PASS
OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY
MORNING, OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DURING
THE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

A STIFF SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH BREEZE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
15 TO 20 MPH FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. THE
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH FLOW WILL DRAW MILD AIR INTO OUR REGION. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE 60S IN MUCH OF OUR
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT, SETTING UP THE
BEGINNING OF A WET PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT DOES NOT
LOOK TO MAKE IT FULLY INTO OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AS IT MAY STALL
JUST TO OUR NORTH, WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT, FINALLY PULLING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SEVERAL VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL BE
TRAVERSING THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, WHICH WILL LEAD TO
SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE
REMAINS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS A PORTION OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM, SO WE WILL KEEP A MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONG
INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER, IF THUNDERSTORMS DO OCCUR, THEY COULD
PRODUCE SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS. ACTUALLY, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
FRIDAY MAY BE A GUSTY DAY IN GENERAL DUE TO THE SYNOPTIC PRESSURE
GRADIENT. AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA TO CHANGE
THE RAIN OVER TO SNOW FOR A PERIOD ACROSS THE POCONOS.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MOVED PAST THE AREA BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY,
BUT WE EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO END THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS
THE LOW MOVES WELL TO OUR NORTH, STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA, LEADING TO A GUSTY DAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH.
THE STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD BEGIN TO DROP OFF OVERNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRONT THE NORTH, BUT
MAY NOT FULLY MAKE IT ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONT MAY STALL JUST TO
THE NORTH. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN LIFT TO OUR NORTHEAST
EARLY MONDAY WHEN THE FRONT MAY FINALLY PUSH ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER, THIS IS WHEN THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITH THE LONG TERM
MODELS. THE GFS ENDS UP LIFTING THIS FRONT BACK NORTHWARD MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BEFORE PROGRESSIVELY MOVING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OUT OF THE MID-WEST AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA FOR
MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY, BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE DIFFERENCE IN MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE FACT ITS STILL PRETTY
FAR OUT, WE`VE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE WHICH MORE CLOSELY
RESEMBLES THE ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES. THAT BEING SAID, THE EARLY TO
MID PART OF NEXT WEEK COULD BE UNSETTLED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY.

A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS INTO THE EARLY EVENING SHOULD
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER DARK. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THURSDAY. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST
TO INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS
WITH SHOWERS LIKELY; THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS 20-30 KNOTS FRIDAY.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KNOTS
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TONIGHT. A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME VARIABLE AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ON
THURSDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW WELL THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MIX WITH THE MILD AIR PASSING OVER THE VERY CHILLY
WATER. IT IS LIKELY THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT REACH THEIR FULL
POTENTIAL.

WE WILL BEGIN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT 200 PM THURSDAY. ADMITTEDLY,
WE MAY BE A LITTLE EARLY FOR MOST OF OUR MARINE AREA. HOWEVER, NEAR
SHORE GUSTS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH 25 KNOTS AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
THAT TIME.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AFFECT THE AREA AND MOVE THROUGH.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...WINDS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE ARE FORECASTING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND INCREASING TO 15 TO
20 MPH FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH
AT THAT TIME. ALSO, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
AROUND 30 PERCENT AND FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE.

THERE MAY BE AN ENHANCED THREAT OF WILDFIRE SPREAD ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, EXCEPT FOR THOSE AREAS THAT STILL HAVE SNOW COVER. WE
WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY SPECIAL FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER, WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
FIRE WEATHER...IOVINO



000
FXUS61 KLWX 011908
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
308 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL SETUP OVER THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND
REMAIN PLACE INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST LATER TONIGHT
WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING AROUND TO THE S-SSW. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...EXPECT CHILLY
TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP BACK TO THE 30S IN
MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT LOW 40S IN THE BALTIMORE/DC METRO AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST ON THURSDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRACKS TOWARD THE MID
WEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL INCREASE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON
THE BREEZY SIDE AND TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 60S AND 70S
AREA WIDE. PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VA AND SOUTHERN MD COULD SEE AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON. PLEASE REFER TO
THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES
INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA...WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WARM AIR AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. LIGHT PCPN WILL BE PSBL THRU THURS
NIGHT...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION. BETTER CHC FOR PCPN WILL COME DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT POSITIONED ACROSS CENTRAL PA AND TO THE
WEST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AS THE LLJ ALIGNS SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. WAA PUSHES 850MB TEMPS TO AROUND 10
DEGREES CELSIUS...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR
MOST OF THE AREA. THIS COMBINING WITH DEW PTS NEARING 60 SHOULD
RESULT IN SOME INSTABILITY...AS INDICATIVE ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NAM INDICATING CAPE VALUES AROUND 500
J/KG...AND SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40 KTS. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THE CHC FOR TSTM DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW THE BEST
CHC FOR ANY SVR WX LOOKS TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...BUT
WITH 850MB WINDS BETWEEN 40-60 KTS...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
THAT ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD BRING DOWN STRONGER WINDS.

THE COLD FRONT REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH
A SECOND LOW THEN LIFTING NORTH...EVENTUALLY DRAGGING THE FRONT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TO
BE THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT...SO WILL MAINTAIN POPS IN FOR THE
NIGHT...THOUGH WITH A DECREASING THUNDER THREAT. AS THE FRONT CLEARS
THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BRINGING ABOUT
DRY WX. CLOUDY CONDITIONS THOUGH STILL PSBL DURING THE DAY SAT AS
THE UPPER LVL TROUGH PIVOTS THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST PASSING NORTH
OF THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING. SHORT WAVE OFF THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST SATURDAY WILL TAKE THE SOUTHERN TRACK
INTO WEST TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE AREAS OF WEAK PVA IN ZONAL
FLOW WILL AFFECT THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE ON NORTHERN TRACK WILL PUSH INTO
CENTRAL VIRGINIA BEFORE STALLING TUESDAY. DYNAMICS SUPPORT INCREASED
CHANCES FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AT ALL TERMINAL
SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY DURING THURSDAY. WIND
SPEEDS IN THE 15-20 KTS RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES.

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY THURS NIGHT...WITH PSBL MVFR CIGS MOVING
IN AFTER 06Z. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS LIKELY FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS. GUSTY WINDS PSBL WITH SOME OF THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND TSTMS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE FRI
NIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR SAT INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
BREEZY CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS...JUST BELOW SCA LEVELS WILL
PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
RELAX. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT BUT WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY
OUT OF THE SOUTH. SOUTHERLY CHANNELING WILL LEAD TO SCA CONDITIONS
ON ALL THE WATERS DURING THE DAY.

SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...THEN SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY AGAIN SATURDAY AS
NW WINDS INCREASE. SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS WILL BE PSBL FRI-FRI
NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHC FOR TSTMS LATE FRI AFTN/EVENING. SCA
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO MODERATE INTO THE 60S AND 70S AREA WIDE.
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AND HUMIDITIES LOOK TO BE MARGINAL THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE THREAT FOR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER IS LOW. WILL NOT ISSUE A WATCH AT THIS TIME. MORE
LIKELY TO SEE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED ON LATER SHIFTS
WITH THE FOCUS AREA OVER PORTIONS OF THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT...CENTRAL
VA AND SOUTHERN MD.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...CEM/SEARS/KRW
MARINE...CEM/SEARS/KRW
FIRE WEATHER...KRW




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011857
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
257 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER TONIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARM THURSDAY WITH
INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORTWAVE IS IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING TO THE EAST AT PRESENT. WHAT
WAS A MORE SOLID DECK OF STRATUS/STRATOCU HAS LIFTED AND BROKEN UP
INTO MAINLY HIGH CU OR LOW AC. THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT/BREAK UP
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...LEADING TO A MOSTLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS H500 RIDGE AXIS ARRIVES BY 12Z. WITH
SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFF TO THE EAST...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STIRRED AND KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING OFF TOO
FAR. TRIED TO LEAN AT OR A TOUCH ABOVE THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR LOW TEMPS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION INCREASE ON THURSDAY WITH H850
TEMPS CLIMBING TO +9/+10 DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP
DRIVE TEMPERATURES AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND HAVE HIGH
TEMPS NEAR THE TOP END OF GUIDANCE. PIT HAS A CHANCE TO REACH 70
DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE LAST NOVEMBER 11. THIS IS IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEM...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM
A CANADIAN LOW. EXPECTING THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO ARRIVE
TOWARDS AND AFTER SUNSET FROM THE WEST...AND DO HAVE LIKELY POPS
HERE BY 00Z. HOWEVER...SOME MEAGER INSTABILITY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
MAY POP SOME SHRA FROM LATE MORNING ON. ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR A SEVERE WEATHER
CONCERN. DESPITE THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
NOT SUGGESTING VERY DEEP MIXING...WHICH WOULD KEEP 50+ KNOT H850
WINDS LOCKED UP ALOFT. DO EXPECT SOME 25-30 KNOT GUSTS AT THE
SURFACE BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY. QPF THROUGH 00Z SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW A QUARTER INCH IN GENERAL...WITH THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
RAIN TO FOLLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT IS STILL FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES RIDE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...BRINGING
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS. THE LAST...AND MOST SIGNIFICANT WAVE THAT WILL
HELP PUSH THE FRONT TO THE EAST WILL COME LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.
WHILE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE PRESENT...AS SUGGESTED
IN THE MODEL WITH PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 1.00 INCH AND THE 1 TO
2 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS PROGGED AREAWIDE...THE LONG DURATION OF
THE EVENT SHOULD HELP TO MINIMIZE WATER PROBLEMS. HOWEVER...IF
THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...HEAVIER
RAINFALL COULD CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES. AT THIS
TIME...WILL NOT ADD ANY CONCERN FOR THIS IN THE HWO WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE FRONT AND SURFACE WAVE EXITING. A
BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS THE PRECIP ENDS. ANY
REMAINING PRECIP CHANCES...MAINLY NE OF PIT...SHOULD DIMINISH BY
AFTERNOON.

GENERALLY KEPT A COMPROMISE OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND TO LESSER EXTENT
THE NAM AND SREF FOR THE FORECAST WITH MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO
POPS AND TEMPERATURES FROM THE LAST SHIFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TRAILING SHORTWAVE IS STILL PROGGED TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS
ALONG A SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE
SITUATION...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE...SO SLIGHT...TO CHANCE POPS WERE CONFINED TO
NORTHERN COUNTIES.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO NEAR...THEN ABOVE
THE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS IN RESPONSE TO WESTERN STATES TROUGHING.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL RISE AS THE WEEK AND TROUGH PROGRESS.

THE LONG TERM PROGNOSIS WAS PRIMARILY BASED ON ADJUSTED WPC
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PRODUCING MOSTLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. DUJ IS HOLDING ON TO SOME MVFR STRATOCUMULUS
WHICH SHOULD LIFT TO VFR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT
MOST OF THE CLOUDS TO EXIT BY 00Z...LEADING TO A MOSTLY CLEAR AND
QUIET NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. SOUTHERLY FLOW STARTS TO CRANK UP
AFTER 12Z IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. MOST
PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS ARRIVE BEFORE THEN WEST OF PIT.
CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR...BUT WINDS WILL PICK UP AND GUST TO BETWEEN
15 AND 25 KNOTS FROM LATE MORNING ON.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS SHOWERS...AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATER THURSDAY...AND INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011857
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
257 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER TONIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARM THURSDAY WITH
INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORTWAVE IS IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING TO THE EAST AT PRESENT. WHAT
WAS A MORE SOLID DECK OF STRATUS/STRATOCU HAS LIFTED AND BROKEN UP
INTO MAINLY HIGH CU OR LOW AC. THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT/BREAK UP
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...LEADING TO A MOSTLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS H500 RIDGE AXIS ARRIVES BY 12Z. WITH
SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFF TO THE EAST...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STIRRED AND KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING OFF TOO
FAR. TRIED TO LEAN AT OR A TOUCH ABOVE THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR LOW TEMPS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION INCREASE ON THURSDAY WITH H850
TEMPS CLIMBING TO +9/+10 DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP
DRIVE TEMPERATURES AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND HAVE HIGH
TEMPS NEAR THE TOP END OF GUIDANCE. PIT HAS A CHANCE TO REACH 70
DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE LAST NOVEMBER 11. THIS IS IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEM...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM
A CANADIAN LOW. EXPECTING THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO ARRIVE
TOWARDS AND AFTER SUNSET FROM THE WEST...AND DO HAVE LIKELY POPS
HERE BY 00Z. HOWEVER...SOME MEAGER INSTABILITY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
MAY POP SOME SHRA FROM LATE MORNING ON. ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR A SEVERE WEATHER
CONCERN. DESPITE THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
NOT SUGGESTING VERY DEEP MIXING...WHICH WOULD KEEP 50+ KNOT H850
WINDS LOCKED UP ALOFT. DO EXPECT SOME 25-30 KNOT GUSTS AT THE
SURFACE BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY. QPF THROUGH 00Z SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW A QUARTER INCH IN GENERAL...WITH THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
RAIN TO FOLLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT IS STILL FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES RIDE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...BRINGING
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS. THE LAST...AND MOST SIGNIFICANT WAVE THAT WILL
HELP PUSH THE FRONT TO THE EAST WILL COME LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.
WHILE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE PRESENT...AS SUGGESTED
IN THE MODEL WITH PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 1.00 INCH AND THE 1 TO
2 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS PROGGED AREAWIDE...THE LONG DURATION OF
THE EVENT SHOULD HELP TO MINIMIZE WATER PROBLEMS. HOWEVER...IF
THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...HEAVIER
RAINFALL COULD CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES. AT THIS
TIME...WILL NOT ADD ANY CONCERN FOR THIS IN THE HWO WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE FRONT AND SURFACE WAVE EXITING. A
BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS THE PRECIP ENDS. ANY
REMAINING PRECIP CHANCES...MAINLY NE OF PIT...SHOULD DIMINISH BY
AFTERNOON.

GENERALLY KEPT A COMPROMISE OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND TO LESSER EXTENT
THE NAM AND SREF FOR THE FORECAST WITH MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO
POPS AND TEMPERATURES FROM THE LAST SHIFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TRAILING SHORTWAVE IS STILL PROGGED TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS
ALONG A SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE
SITUATION...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE...SO SLIGHT...TO CHANCE POPS WERE CONFINED TO
NORTHERN COUNTIES.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO NEAR...THEN ABOVE
THE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS IN RESPONSE TO WESTERN STATES TROUGHING.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL RISE AS THE WEEK AND TROUGH PROGRESS.

THE LONG TERM PROGNOSIS WAS PRIMARILY BASED ON ADJUSTED WPC
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PRODUCING MOSTLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. DUJ IS HOLDING ON TO SOME MVFR STRATOCUMULUS
WHICH SHOULD LIFT TO VFR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT
MOST OF THE CLOUDS TO EXIT BY 00Z...LEADING TO A MOSTLY CLEAR AND
QUIET NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. SOUTHERLY FLOW STARTS TO CRANK UP
AFTER 12Z IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. MOST
PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS ARRIVE BEFORE THEN WEST OF PIT.
CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR...BUT WINDS WILL PICK UP AND GUST TO BETWEEN
15 AND 25 KNOTS FROM LATE MORNING ON.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS SHOWERS...AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATER THURSDAY...AND INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011857
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
257 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER TONIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARM THURSDAY WITH
INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORTWAVE IS IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING TO THE EAST AT PRESENT. WHAT
WAS A MORE SOLID DECK OF STRATUS/STRATOCU HAS LIFTED AND BROKEN UP
INTO MAINLY HIGH CU OR LOW AC. THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT/BREAK UP
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...LEADING TO A MOSTLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS H500 RIDGE AXIS ARRIVES BY 12Z. WITH
SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFF TO THE EAST...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STIRRED AND KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING OFF TOO
FAR. TRIED TO LEAN AT OR A TOUCH ABOVE THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR LOW TEMPS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION INCREASE ON THURSDAY WITH H850
TEMPS CLIMBING TO +9/+10 DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP
DRIVE TEMPERATURES AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND HAVE HIGH
TEMPS NEAR THE TOP END OF GUIDANCE. PIT HAS A CHANCE TO REACH 70
DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE LAST NOVEMBER 11. THIS IS IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEM...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM
A CANADIAN LOW. EXPECTING THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO ARRIVE
TOWARDS AND AFTER SUNSET FROM THE WEST...AND DO HAVE LIKELY POPS
HERE BY 00Z. HOWEVER...SOME MEAGER INSTABILITY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
MAY POP SOME SHRA FROM LATE MORNING ON. ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR A SEVERE WEATHER
CONCERN. DESPITE THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
NOT SUGGESTING VERY DEEP MIXING...WHICH WOULD KEEP 50+ KNOT H850
WINDS LOCKED UP ALOFT. DO EXPECT SOME 25-30 KNOT GUSTS AT THE
SURFACE BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY. QPF THROUGH 00Z SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW A QUARTER INCH IN GENERAL...WITH THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
RAIN TO FOLLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT IS STILL FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES RIDE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...BRINGING
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS. THE LAST...AND MOST SIGNIFICANT WAVE THAT WILL
HELP PUSH THE FRONT TO THE EAST WILL COME LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.
WHILE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE PRESENT...AS SUGGESTED
IN THE MODEL WITH PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 1.00 INCH AND THE 1 TO
2 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS PROGGED AREAWIDE...THE LONG DURATION OF
THE EVENT SHOULD HELP TO MINIMIZE WATER PROBLEMS. HOWEVER...IF
THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...HEAVIER
RAINFALL COULD CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES. AT THIS
TIME...WILL NOT ADD ANY CONCERN FOR THIS IN THE HWO WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE FRONT AND SURFACE WAVE EXITING. A
BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS THE PRECIP ENDS. ANY
REMAINING PRECIP CHANCES...MAINLY NE OF PIT...SHOULD DIMINISH BY
AFTERNOON.

GENERALLY KEPT A COMPROMISE OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND TO LESSER EXTENT
THE NAM AND SREF FOR THE FORECAST WITH MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO
POPS AND TEMPERATURES FROM THE LAST SHIFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TRAILING SHORTWAVE IS STILL PROGGED TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS
ALONG A SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE
SITUATION...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE...SO SLIGHT...TO CHANCE POPS WERE CONFINED TO
NORTHERN COUNTIES.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO NEAR...THEN ABOVE
THE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS IN RESPONSE TO WESTERN STATES TROUGHING.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL RISE AS THE WEEK AND TROUGH PROGRESS.

THE LONG TERM PROGNOSIS WAS PRIMARILY BASED ON ADJUSTED WPC
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PRODUCING MOSTLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. DUJ IS HOLDING ON TO SOME MVFR STRATOCUMULUS
WHICH SHOULD LIFT TO VFR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT
MOST OF THE CLOUDS TO EXIT BY 00Z...LEADING TO A MOSTLY CLEAR AND
QUIET NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. SOUTHERLY FLOW STARTS TO CRANK UP
AFTER 12Z IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. MOST
PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS ARRIVE BEFORE THEN WEST OF PIT.
CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR...BUT WINDS WILL PICK UP AND GUST TO BETWEEN
15 AND 25 KNOTS FROM LATE MORNING ON.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS SHOWERS...AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATER THURSDAY...AND INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011857
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
257 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER TONIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARM THURSDAY WITH
INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORTWAVE IS IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING TO THE EAST AT PRESENT. WHAT
WAS A MORE SOLID DECK OF STRATUS/STRATOCU HAS LIFTED AND BROKEN UP
INTO MAINLY HIGH CU OR LOW AC. THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT/BREAK UP
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...LEADING TO A MOSTLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS H500 RIDGE AXIS ARRIVES BY 12Z. WITH
SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFF TO THE EAST...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STIRRED AND KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING OFF TOO
FAR. TRIED TO LEAN AT OR A TOUCH ABOVE THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR LOW TEMPS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION INCREASE ON THURSDAY WITH H850
TEMPS CLIMBING TO +9/+10 DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP
DRIVE TEMPERATURES AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND HAVE HIGH
TEMPS NEAR THE TOP END OF GUIDANCE. PIT HAS A CHANCE TO REACH 70
DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE LAST NOVEMBER 11. THIS IS IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEM...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM
A CANADIAN LOW. EXPECTING THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO ARRIVE
TOWARDS AND AFTER SUNSET FROM THE WEST...AND DO HAVE LIKELY POPS
HERE BY 00Z. HOWEVER...SOME MEAGER INSTABILITY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
MAY POP SOME SHRA FROM LATE MORNING ON. ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR A SEVERE WEATHER
CONCERN. DESPITE THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
NOT SUGGESTING VERY DEEP MIXING...WHICH WOULD KEEP 50+ KNOT H850
WINDS LOCKED UP ALOFT. DO EXPECT SOME 25-30 KNOT GUSTS AT THE
SURFACE BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY. QPF THROUGH 00Z SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW A QUARTER INCH IN GENERAL...WITH THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
RAIN TO FOLLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT IS STILL FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES RIDE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...BRINGING
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS. THE LAST...AND MOST SIGNIFICANT WAVE THAT WILL
HELP PUSH THE FRONT TO THE EAST WILL COME LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.
WHILE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE PRESENT...AS SUGGESTED
IN THE MODEL WITH PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 1.00 INCH AND THE 1 TO
2 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS PROGGED AREAWIDE...THE LONG DURATION OF
THE EVENT SHOULD HELP TO MINIMIZE WATER PROBLEMS. HOWEVER...IF
THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...HEAVIER
RAINFALL COULD CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES. AT THIS
TIME...WILL NOT ADD ANY CONCERN FOR THIS IN THE HWO WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE FRONT AND SURFACE WAVE EXITING. A
BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS THE PRECIP ENDS. ANY
REMAINING PRECIP CHANCES...MAINLY NE OF PIT...SHOULD DIMINISH BY
AFTERNOON.

GENERALLY KEPT A COMPROMISE OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND TO LESSER EXTENT
THE NAM AND SREF FOR THE FORECAST WITH MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO
POPS AND TEMPERATURES FROM THE LAST SHIFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TRAILING SHORTWAVE IS STILL PROGGED TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS
ALONG A SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE
SITUATION...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE...SO SLIGHT...TO CHANCE POPS WERE CONFINED TO
NORTHERN COUNTIES.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO NEAR...THEN ABOVE
THE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS IN RESPONSE TO WESTERN STATES TROUGHING.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL RISE AS THE WEEK AND TROUGH PROGRESS.

THE LONG TERM PROGNOSIS WAS PRIMARILY BASED ON ADJUSTED WPC
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PRODUCING MOSTLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. DUJ IS HOLDING ON TO SOME MVFR STRATOCUMULUS
WHICH SHOULD LIFT TO VFR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT
MOST OF THE CLOUDS TO EXIT BY 00Z...LEADING TO A MOSTLY CLEAR AND
QUIET NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. SOUTHERLY FLOW STARTS TO CRANK UP
AFTER 12Z IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. MOST
PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS ARRIVE BEFORE THEN WEST OF PIT.
CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR...BUT WINDS WILL PICK UP AND GUST TO BETWEEN
15 AND 25 KNOTS FROM LATE MORNING ON.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS SHOWERS...AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATER THURSDAY...AND INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011810
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
210 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY...THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...AND CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~1022 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED FROM WRN MD SE INTO NORTH CENTRAL VA. NW FLOW PREVAILS
ALOFT. CLEAR SKIES THROUGHOUT THE LOCAL AREA...SOMEWHAT GUSTY N/NE
WIND OF 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KT WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH INTO
THE EARLY AFTN HRS AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION. AFTER
18Z...MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT (STAYING A
LITTLE ELEVATED IN NE NC). 15Z TEMPERATURES AVG IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE LOWER 50S WELL INLAND. WITH
FULL SUN SHOULD SEE ABOUT A 10 DEGREE RISE FROM THESE VALUES
INLAND...A TAD LESS ON THE COAST AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE E/NE LATER
IN THE AFTN DUE TO A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN SOUTH CENTRAL VA TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG
THE COAST OF THE ERN SHORE (MOST LOCATIONS IN THE CWA IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE TNGT/THU MRNG. LGT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS MNLY
IN THE L/M30S MOST INLAND PLACES TO ARND 40F AT THE IMMEDIATE
CST.

WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WX DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE WITHIN A
WARMING AIRMASS AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP BY THE AFTN. MOST
INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE L70S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE L/M60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

INCREASING CLOUDS THU NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE
COAST AND A MORE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. IN GENERAL...MODELS
RMN SLOWER AT BRINGING IN DEEP MOISTURE AND THE NRN STREAM AND
SRN STREAM ARE SLOWER TO PHASE. WILL CONT W/ HIGHEST POPS ON FRI
TO NNW 1/3RD OF FA BY LT TNGT THROUGH FRI. VERY MILD THU NIGHT IN
SSW FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS...LOWS IN THE 50S TO POSSIBLY AS
WARM AS 60F IN A FEW SPOTS. WARM/VARIABLY CLOUDY FRI WITH 20-30%
CHC FOR -SHRA AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY TSTMS AS THE SFC FRONT
MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE M/U70S...POSSIBLY
CLOSE TO 80F IF ENOUGH SUN CAN PREVAIL (U60S/L70S ON THE ERN
SHORE). MAIN RAIN EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRI NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WET AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FRI NIGHT...THEN OFF THE CST SAT MRNG. STILL SOME MINOR
SPATIAL AND TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WRT ASSOCIATED SRN
STREAM ENERGY AND THE COLD FRONT...BUT MOSTLY NOW WITH HOW QUICK
PRECIP CLEARS THE COAST SAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FRI
NIGHT...EXCEPT THE SE. THETA-E ADVECTION AND MILD TEMPS WILL
RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY FRI EVENING. SOUNDINGS ALSO
INDICATE SHARPENING LAPSE RATES AS TEMPS ALOFT COOL. WILL
INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI EVENING. COLD FRONT EXITS THE
COAST SAT MRNG AS THE PARENT LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFT INTO
THE NE STATES/CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST SAT AFTN...REMAINING OVER THE REGION THRU SUN. THE RESULT
WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SAT-SUN GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S INLAND AND
MID-UPPER 50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER SERN
CANADA THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
OFFSHORE SUN AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES.
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF BEGINS TO SPREAD BACK NWD INTO THE MIDWEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE WLY FLOW CROSS THE
REGION. BEGIN TO REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE- LOW END CHANCE POPS
TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGHS MON IN THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AND UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 40S-LOW 50S. HIGHS TUES IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID-UPPER
60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IS PROVIDING CLEAR SKY
AND THE WINDS ARE RELAXING AS WELL. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY.
THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BUT OVERALL...WILL
SEE VFR CONDITONS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.

OUTLOOK...THE NEXT COLD FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH FM THE NW.
SHOWERS...WITH MVFR CONDTIONS...ARE POSSIBLE FRI INTO SAT
MORNG...AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACRS THE REGION. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...SCA EXTENDED FOR SRN CHES BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND UNTIL
1 PM DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AROUND 20 KT. ALSO EXTENDED SCA FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS FOR SEAS AT 5 FT. WILL MONITOR DOWNWARD TRENDS TO
SEE IF ANOTHER EXTENSION IS NEEDED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL
LATER THIS AFTN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HI PRES WILL BLD INTO THE AREA FM THE NW
TODAY...THEN WILL SLIDE OFF THE CST ON THU. STRONG N OR NW WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT WILL OCCUR THRU THIS MORNG.
SEAS WILL BLD TO 3 TO 5 FT OVR THE CSTL WTRS...AND WAVES WILL BLD
TO 3 TO 4 FT OVR THE CHES BAY. THUS...SCA`S WILL REMAIN UP OVR THE
WTRS UNTIL 10 AM OR NOON. WINDS/SEAS WILL DIMINISH/SUBSIDE THIS
AFTN INTO THIS EVENG...AS THE HI BLDS RIGHT OVR THE WTRS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE LATER TNGT AND THU...WITH FLOW
RETURNING TO THE S AOB 15 KT. SLY WINDS INCREASE THU...AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THURS-THURS EVENING WITH SLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT.
SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS ALSO PROGGED TO REACH 5 FT. FLOW BECOMES SW
FRI...AS THE FRONT HANGS UP ALONG THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. FRONT
FINALLY CROSSES THE WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNG.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT RICHMOND FOR TUESDAY MARCH 31ST HAS BEEN
RECORDED AS 74 DEGREES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...BMD/TMG
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011810
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
210 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY...THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...AND CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~1022 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED FROM WRN MD SE INTO NORTH CENTRAL VA. NW FLOW PREVAILS
ALOFT. CLEAR SKIES THROUGHOUT THE LOCAL AREA...SOMEWHAT GUSTY N/NE
WIND OF 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KT WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH INTO
THE EARLY AFTN HRS AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION. AFTER
18Z...MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT (STAYING A
LITTLE ELEVATED IN NE NC). 15Z TEMPERATURES AVG IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE LOWER 50S WELL INLAND. WITH
FULL SUN SHOULD SEE ABOUT A 10 DEGREE RISE FROM THESE VALUES
INLAND...A TAD LESS ON THE COAST AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE E/NE LATER
IN THE AFTN DUE TO A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN SOUTH CENTRAL VA TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG
THE COAST OF THE ERN SHORE (MOST LOCATIONS IN THE CWA IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE TNGT/THU MRNG. LGT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS MNLY
IN THE L/M30S MOST INLAND PLACES TO ARND 40F AT THE IMMEDIATE
CST.

WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WX DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE WITHIN A
WARMING AIRMASS AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP BY THE AFTN. MOST
INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE L70S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE L/M60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

INCREASING CLOUDS THU NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE
COAST AND A MORE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. IN GENERAL...MODELS
RMN SLOWER AT BRINGING IN DEEP MOISTURE AND THE NRN STREAM AND
SRN STREAM ARE SLOWER TO PHASE. WILL CONT W/ HIGHEST POPS ON FRI
TO NNW 1/3RD OF FA BY LT TNGT THROUGH FRI. VERY MILD THU NIGHT IN
SSW FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS...LOWS IN THE 50S TO POSSIBLY AS
WARM AS 60F IN A FEW SPOTS. WARM/VARIABLY CLOUDY FRI WITH 20-30%
CHC FOR -SHRA AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY TSTMS AS THE SFC FRONT
MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE M/U70S...POSSIBLY
CLOSE TO 80F IF ENOUGH SUN CAN PREVAIL (U60S/L70S ON THE ERN
SHORE). MAIN RAIN EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRI NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WET AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FRI NIGHT...THEN OFF THE CST SAT MRNG. STILL SOME MINOR
SPATIAL AND TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WRT ASSOCIATED SRN
STREAM ENERGY AND THE COLD FRONT...BUT MOSTLY NOW WITH HOW QUICK
PRECIP CLEARS THE COAST SAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FRI
NIGHT...EXCEPT THE SE. THETA-E ADVECTION AND MILD TEMPS WILL
RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY FRI EVENING. SOUNDINGS ALSO
INDICATE SHARPENING LAPSE RATES AS TEMPS ALOFT COOL. WILL
INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI EVENING. COLD FRONT EXITS THE
COAST SAT MRNG AS THE PARENT LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFT INTO
THE NE STATES/CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST SAT AFTN...REMAINING OVER THE REGION THRU SUN. THE RESULT
WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SAT-SUN GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S INLAND AND
MID-UPPER 50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER SERN
CANADA THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
OFFSHORE SUN AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES.
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF BEGINS TO SPREAD BACK NWD INTO THE MIDWEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE WLY FLOW CROSS THE
REGION. BEGIN TO REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE- LOW END CHANCE POPS
TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGHS MON IN THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AND UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 40S-LOW 50S. HIGHS TUES IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID-UPPER
60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IS PROVIDING CLEAR SKY
AND THE WINDS ARE RELAXING AS WELL. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY.
THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BUT OVERALL...WILL
SEE VFR CONDITONS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.

OUTLOOK...THE NEXT COLD FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH FM THE NW.
SHOWERS...WITH MVFR CONDTIONS...ARE POSSIBLE FRI INTO SAT
MORNG...AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACRS THE REGION. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...SCA EXTENDED FOR SRN CHES BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND UNTIL
1 PM DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AROUND 20 KT. ALSO EXTENDED SCA FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS FOR SEAS AT 5 FT. WILL MONITOR DOWNWARD TRENDS TO
SEE IF ANOTHER EXTENSION IS NEEDED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL
LATER THIS AFTN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HI PRES WILL BLD INTO THE AREA FM THE NW
TODAY...THEN WILL SLIDE OFF THE CST ON THU. STRONG N OR NW WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT WILL OCCUR THRU THIS MORNG.
SEAS WILL BLD TO 3 TO 5 FT OVR THE CSTL WTRS...AND WAVES WILL BLD
TO 3 TO 4 FT OVR THE CHES BAY. THUS...SCA`S WILL REMAIN UP OVR THE
WTRS UNTIL 10 AM OR NOON. WINDS/SEAS WILL DIMINISH/SUBSIDE THIS
AFTN INTO THIS EVENG...AS THE HI BLDS RIGHT OVR THE WTRS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE LATER TNGT AND THU...WITH FLOW
RETURNING TO THE S AOB 15 KT. SLY WINDS INCREASE THU...AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THURS-THURS EVENING WITH SLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT.
SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS ALSO PROGGED TO REACH 5 FT. FLOW BECOMES SW
FRI...AS THE FRONT HANGS UP ALONG THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. FRONT
FINALLY CROSSES THE WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNG.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT RICHMOND FOR TUESDAY MARCH 31ST HAS BEEN
RECORDED AS 74 DEGREES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...BMD/TMG
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 011548
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1148 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION TODAY AND SLOWLY MOVE
OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
SATURDAY MORNING. A WEAKER COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MAY STALL OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC THROUGH MID-WEEK...AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SKY OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA WAS PARTLY
SUNNY LATE THIS MORNING WITH PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS OVERHEAD.
CONDITIONS WERE MOSTLY SUNNY OVER OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THOUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION.

TEMPERATURES IN OUR REGION WERE MOSTLY IN THE 40S AROUND 1130 AM.
AFTERNOON READINGS SHOULD RISE MAINLY INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S WITH A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
BECAUSE OF THE UNSEASONABLY COLD FEBRUARY AND MARCH WE ARE
DELAYING THE START OF FROST AND FREEZE PRODUCTS FOR THE DELMARVA
UNTIL APRIL 11TH. EVEN LOCALLY, WE ARE WAY BEHIND. OUR NEIGHBOR`S
BEAUTIFUL WHITE MAGNOLIA TREES THAT NORMALLY BLOOM LIKE CLOCKWORK
ON THE FIRST DAY OF SPRING ARE NOT EVEN CLOSE, ESTIMATING WE ARE
ABOUT TWO WEEKS BEHIND SCHEDULE.

SPEAKING OF FROST WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING OVER OUR
CWA TONIGHT, EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. THE GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN TOWARD MORNING, BUT
SUSPECT THE RADIATIONAL INVERSION WILL PREVENT MIXING. AT THE
NORTH END OF OUR CWA SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD ARRIVE TOWARD
MORNING. BECAUSE WE ARE ON THE CONVERGENT SIDE OF THE JET AND
STRONG RIDGING IS PREDICTED OVERNIGHT, DO NOT BELIEVE THEY WILL
HAVE MUCH OF A THERMAL IMPACT. THUS MIN TEMPS IN OUTLYING AREAS
ARE AT OR BELOW STAT GUIDANCE. CLOSER TO STAT GUIDANCE IN URBAN
AND COASTAL AREAS.

THE GFS BRINGS MEASURABLE PCPN EVER SO CLOSE TO NJ TOWARD
MORNING, OVER THE PAST MONTH IN THE 24 TO 36 HR FORECAST TIME
FRAME, ITS EQUITABLE THREAT SCORE IS LOWER AND ITS (WET) BIAS WITH
THE .01 ISOHYET IS HIGHER THAN THE SREF, NAM OR ECMWF IN OUR
REGION. BTW AT 24 HOURS THE ECMWF AND AT 36 HR THE NAM HAS HAD THE
HIGHEST SCORE WITH THAT ISOHYET. THAT BEING SAID, THE GFS KEEPS
PREDICTED OMEGA, THETA E RDGG AND MID LEVEL WAA NORTH OF OUR CWA,
SO NO PCPN CORROBORATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE CRESTING OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS FRI NIGHT...WITH THE FLOW BACKING
SOUTHWEST...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG S/WV ON SATURDAY.
THEREAFTER...COMPLEX PATTERN SETS UP AS TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE
WESTERN US AND DOWNSTREAM FLOW BECOMES WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE ERN
CONUS. THE 00Z/01 MODEL SUITE DISAGREEMENT CENTERS AROUND
MAGNITUDE OF S/WV ENERGY ENTERING THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH AND
UPPER MS VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EC/UKMET SOLUTION FAVORS A
MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS WHICH LEADS TO A
STATIONARY FRONT INVOF THE MID ATLANTIC...WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION
FAVORS MORE OF A MERIDIONAL FLOW WHICH PLACES THIS FRONT FURTHER
TO THE NORTH.

DAY TO DAY...EXPECTING TEMPS ABV AVERAGE ON THU AND FRI W/GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS LIKELY. A GENERALLY DRY DAY EXPECTED THU WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY FRI AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY SAT... IT
WILL TURN BLUSTERY AND PRECIP MAY TURN TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...DEPENDING ON THE THERMAL PROFILE. THIS BEARS WATCHING. A
BRIEF REPRIVE ON SUNDAY BEFORE A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ATTEMPTS TO
SETUP INVOF THE MID ATLANTIC IN THE MON THRU WED TIME FRAME. THIS
FAVORS AN OVERRUNNING REGIME...AND WITH THE ADDITION OF GULF
MOISTURE...HEAVY RAINFALL IS A POSSIBILITY DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...A VFR CU BASED CIG MIGHT FORM AT NORTHERN
AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. ELSEWHERE WE ARE EXPECTING THEM TO BE
SCATTERED OR LESS. WINDS SHOULD BACK EVER SO SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE
WEST WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS, NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. SOME CIRRUS
CLOUDS WILL PASS BY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA AND TSRA.

SATURDAY...MVFR IN SHRA EARLY...GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARING OUR AREA, SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SCA CRITERIA
LATE ON THU AND CONTINUE THRU SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...SOUTHWEST
WINDS ON THU AND FRI ARE ANTICIPATED TO VEER NORTHWEST BY FRI
NIGHT... AND REMAIN AOB THE SCA THRESHOLD DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
THE SCA THRESHOLD ATTM.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/GIGI
MARINE...FRANCK/GIGI



000
FXUS61 KPHI 011548
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1148 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION TODAY AND SLOWLY MOVE
OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
SATURDAY MORNING. A WEAKER COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MAY STALL OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC THROUGH MID-WEEK...AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SKY OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA WAS PARTLY
SUNNY LATE THIS MORNING WITH PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS OVERHEAD.
CONDITIONS WERE MOSTLY SUNNY OVER OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THOUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION.

TEMPERATURES IN OUR REGION WERE MOSTLY IN THE 40S AROUND 1130 AM.
AFTERNOON READINGS SHOULD RISE MAINLY INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S WITH A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
BECAUSE OF THE UNSEASONABLY COLD FEBRUARY AND MARCH WE ARE
DELAYING THE START OF FROST AND FREEZE PRODUCTS FOR THE DELMARVA
UNTIL APRIL 11TH. EVEN LOCALLY, WE ARE WAY BEHIND. OUR NEIGHBOR`S
BEAUTIFUL WHITE MAGNOLIA TREES THAT NORMALLY BLOOM LIKE CLOCKWORK
ON THE FIRST DAY OF SPRING ARE NOT EVEN CLOSE, ESTIMATING WE ARE
ABOUT TWO WEEKS BEHIND SCHEDULE.

SPEAKING OF FROST WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING OVER OUR
CWA TONIGHT, EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. THE GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN TOWARD MORNING, BUT
SUSPECT THE RADIATIONAL INVERSION WILL PREVENT MIXING. AT THE
NORTH END OF OUR CWA SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD ARRIVE TOWARD
MORNING. BECAUSE WE ARE ON THE CONVERGENT SIDE OF THE JET AND
STRONG RIDGING IS PREDICTED OVERNIGHT, DO NOT BELIEVE THEY WILL
HAVE MUCH OF A THERMAL IMPACT. THUS MIN TEMPS IN OUTLYING AREAS
ARE AT OR BELOW STAT GUIDANCE. CLOSER TO STAT GUIDANCE IN URBAN
AND COASTAL AREAS.

THE GFS BRINGS MEASURABLE PCPN EVER SO CLOSE TO NJ TOWARD
MORNING, OVER THE PAST MONTH IN THE 24 TO 36 HR FORECAST TIME
FRAME, ITS EQUITABLE THREAT SCORE IS LOWER AND ITS (WET) BIAS WITH
THE .01 ISOHYET IS HIGHER THAN THE SREF, NAM OR ECMWF IN OUR
REGION. BTW AT 24 HOURS THE ECMWF AND AT 36 HR THE NAM HAS HAD THE
HIGHEST SCORE WITH THAT ISOHYET. THAT BEING SAID, THE GFS KEEPS
PREDICTED OMEGA, THETA E RDGG AND MID LEVEL WAA NORTH OF OUR CWA,
SO NO PCPN CORROBORATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE CRESTING OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS FRI NIGHT...WITH THE FLOW BACKING
SOUTHWEST...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG S/WV ON SATURDAY.
THEREAFTER...COMPLEX PATTERN SETS UP AS TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE
WESTERN US AND DOWNSTREAM FLOW BECOMES WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE ERN
CONUS. THE 00Z/01 MODEL SUITE DISAGREEMENT CENTERS AROUND
MAGNITUDE OF S/WV ENERGY ENTERING THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH AND
UPPER MS VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EC/UKMET SOLUTION FAVORS A
MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS WHICH LEADS TO A
STATIONARY FRONT INVOF THE MID ATLANTIC...WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION
FAVORS MORE OF A MERIDIONAL FLOW WHICH PLACES THIS FRONT FURTHER
TO THE NORTH.

DAY TO DAY...EXPECTING TEMPS ABV AVERAGE ON THU AND FRI W/GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS LIKELY. A GENERALLY DRY DAY EXPECTED THU WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY FRI AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY SAT... IT
WILL TURN BLUSTERY AND PRECIP MAY TURN TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...DEPENDING ON THE THERMAL PROFILE. THIS BEARS WATCHING. A
BRIEF REPRIVE ON SUNDAY BEFORE A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ATTEMPTS TO
SETUP INVOF THE MID ATLANTIC IN THE MON THRU WED TIME FRAME. THIS
FAVORS AN OVERRUNNING REGIME...AND WITH THE ADDITION OF GULF
MOISTURE...HEAVY RAINFALL IS A POSSIBILITY DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...A VFR CU BASED CIG MIGHT FORM AT NORTHERN
AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. ELSEWHERE WE ARE EXPECTING THEM TO BE
SCATTERED OR LESS. WINDS SHOULD BACK EVER SO SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE
WEST WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS, NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. SOME CIRRUS
CLOUDS WILL PASS BY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA AND TSRA.

SATURDAY...MVFR IN SHRA EARLY...GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARING OUR AREA, SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SCA CRITERIA
LATE ON THU AND CONTINUE THRU SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...SOUTHWEST
WINDS ON THU AND FRI ARE ANTICIPATED TO VEER NORTHWEST BY FRI
NIGHT... AND REMAIN AOB THE SCA THRESHOLD DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
THE SCA THRESHOLD ATTM.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/GIGI
MARINE...FRANCK/GIGI




000
FXUS61 KPHI 011548
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1148 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION TODAY AND SLOWLY MOVE
OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
SATURDAY MORNING. A WEAKER COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MAY STALL OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC THROUGH MID-WEEK...AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SKY OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA WAS PARTLY
SUNNY LATE THIS MORNING WITH PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS OVERHEAD.
CONDITIONS WERE MOSTLY SUNNY OVER OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THOUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION.

TEMPERATURES IN OUR REGION WERE MOSTLY IN THE 40S AROUND 1130 AM.
AFTERNOON READINGS SHOULD RISE MAINLY INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S WITH A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
BECAUSE OF THE UNSEASONABLY COLD FEBRUARY AND MARCH WE ARE
DELAYING THE START OF FROST AND FREEZE PRODUCTS FOR THE DELMARVA
UNTIL APRIL 11TH. EVEN LOCALLY, WE ARE WAY BEHIND. OUR NEIGHBOR`S
BEAUTIFUL WHITE MAGNOLIA TREES THAT NORMALLY BLOOM LIKE CLOCKWORK
ON THE FIRST DAY OF SPRING ARE NOT EVEN CLOSE, ESTIMATING WE ARE
ABOUT TWO WEEKS BEHIND SCHEDULE.

SPEAKING OF FROST WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING OVER OUR
CWA TONIGHT, EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. THE GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN TOWARD MORNING, BUT
SUSPECT THE RADIATIONAL INVERSION WILL PREVENT MIXING. AT THE
NORTH END OF OUR CWA SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD ARRIVE TOWARD
MORNING. BECAUSE WE ARE ON THE CONVERGENT SIDE OF THE JET AND
STRONG RIDGING IS PREDICTED OVERNIGHT, DO NOT BELIEVE THEY WILL
HAVE MUCH OF A THERMAL IMPACT. THUS MIN TEMPS IN OUTLYING AREAS
ARE AT OR BELOW STAT GUIDANCE. CLOSER TO STAT GUIDANCE IN URBAN
AND COASTAL AREAS.

THE GFS BRINGS MEASURABLE PCPN EVER SO CLOSE TO NJ TOWARD
MORNING, OVER THE PAST MONTH IN THE 24 TO 36 HR FORECAST TIME
FRAME, ITS EQUITABLE THREAT SCORE IS LOWER AND ITS (WET) BIAS WITH
THE .01 ISOHYET IS HIGHER THAN THE SREF, NAM OR ECMWF IN OUR
REGION. BTW AT 24 HOURS THE ECMWF AND AT 36 HR THE NAM HAS HAD THE
HIGHEST SCORE WITH THAT ISOHYET. THAT BEING SAID, THE GFS KEEPS
PREDICTED OMEGA, THETA E RDGG AND MID LEVEL WAA NORTH OF OUR CWA,
SO NO PCPN CORROBORATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE CRESTING OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS FRI NIGHT...WITH THE FLOW BACKING
SOUTHWEST...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG S/WV ON SATURDAY.
THEREAFTER...COMPLEX PATTERN SETS UP AS TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE
WESTERN US AND DOWNSTREAM FLOW BECOMES WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE ERN
CONUS. THE 00Z/01 MODEL SUITE DISAGREEMENT CENTERS AROUND
MAGNITUDE OF S/WV ENERGY ENTERING THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH AND
UPPER MS VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EC/UKMET SOLUTION FAVORS A
MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS WHICH LEADS TO A
STATIONARY FRONT INVOF THE MID ATLANTIC...WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION
FAVORS MORE OF A MERIDIONAL FLOW WHICH PLACES THIS FRONT FURTHER
TO THE NORTH.

DAY TO DAY...EXPECTING TEMPS ABV AVERAGE ON THU AND FRI W/GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS LIKELY. A GENERALLY DRY DAY EXPECTED THU WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY FRI AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY SAT... IT
WILL TURN BLUSTERY AND PRECIP MAY TURN TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...DEPENDING ON THE THERMAL PROFILE. THIS BEARS WATCHING. A
BRIEF REPRIVE ON SUNDAY BEFORE A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ATTEMPTS TO
SETUP INVOF THE MID ATLANTIC IN THE MON THRU WED TIME FRAME. THIS
FAVORS AN OVERRUNNING REGIME...AND WITH THE ADDITION OF GULF
MOISTURE...HEAVY RAINFALL IS A POSSIBILITY DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...A VFR CU BASED CIG MIGHT FORM AT NORTHERN
AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. ELSEWHERE WE ARE EXPECTING THEM TO BE
SCATTERED OR LESS. WINDS SHOULD BACK EVER SO SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE
WEST WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS, NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. SOME CIRRUS
CLOUDS WILL PASS BY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA AND TSRA.

SATURDAY...MVFR IN SHRA EARLY...GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARING OUR AREA, SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SCA CRITERIA
LATE ON THU AND CONTINUE THRU SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...SOUTHWEST
WINDS ON THU AND FRI ARE ANTICIPATED TO VEER NORTHWEST BY FRI
NIGHT... AND REMAIN AOB THE SCA THRESHOLD DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
THE SCA THRESHOLD ATTM.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/GIGI
MARINE...FRANCK/GIGI



000
FXUS61 KPHI 011548
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1148 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION TODAY AND SLOWLY MOVE
OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
SATURDAY MORNING. A WEAKER COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MAY STALL OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC THROUGH MID-WEEK...AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SKY OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA WAS PARTLY
SUNNY LATE THIS MORNING WITH PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS OVERHEAD.
CONDITIONS WERE MOSTLY SUNNY OVER OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THOUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION.

TEMPERATURES IN OUR REGION WERE MOSTLY IN THE 40S AROUND 1130 AM.
AFTERNOON READINGS SHOULD RISE MAINLY INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S WITH A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
BECAUSE OF THE UNSEASONABLY COLD FEBRUARY AND MARCH WE ARE
DELAYING THE START OF FROST AND FREEZE PRODUCTS FOR THE DELMARVA
UNTIL APRIL 11TH. EVEN LOCALLY, WE ARE WAY BEHIND. OUR NEIGHBOR`S
BEAUTIFUL WHITE MAGNOLIA TREES THAT NORMALLY BLOOM LIKE CLOCKWORK
ON THE FIRST DAY OF SPRING ARE NOT EVEN CLOSE, ESTIMATING WE ARE
ABOUT TWO WEEKS BEHIND SCHEDULE.

SPEAKING OF FROST WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING OVER OUR
CWA TONIGHT, EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. THE GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN TOWARD MORNING, BUT
SUSPECT THE RADIATIONAL INVERSION WILL PREVENT MIXING. AT THE
NORTH END OF OUR CWA SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD ARRIVE TOWARD
MORNING. BECAUSE WE ARE ON THE CONVERGENT SIDE OF THE JET AND
STRONG RIDGING IS PREDICTED OVERNIGHT, DO NOT BELIEVE THEY WILL
HAVE MUCH OF A THERMAL IMPACT. THUS MIN TEMPS IN OUTLYING AREAS
ARE AT OR BELOW STAT GUIDANCE. CLOSER TO STAT GUIDANCE IN URBAN
AND COASTAL AREAS.

THE GFS BRINGS MEASURABLE PCPN EVER SO CLOSE TO NJ TOWARD
MORNING, OVER THE PAST MONTH IN THE 24 TO 36 HR FORECAST TIME
FRAME, ITS EQUITABLE THREAT SCORE IS LOWER AND ITS (WET) BIAS WITH
THE .01 ISOHYET IS HIGHER THAN THE SREF, NAM OR ECMWF IN OUR
REGION. BTW AT 24 HOURS THE ECMWF AND AT 36 HR THE NAM HAS HAD THE
HIGHEST SCORE WITH THAT ISOHYET. THAT BEING SAID, THE GFS KEEPS
PREDICTED OMEGA, THETA E RDGG AND MID LEVEL WAA NORTH OF OUR CWA,
SO NO PCPN CORROBORATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE CRESTING OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS FRI NIGHT...WITH THE FLOW BACKING
SOUTHWEST...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG S/WV ON SATURDAY.
THEREAFTER...COMPLEX PATTERN SETS UP AS TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE
WESTERN US AND DOWNSTREAM FLOW BECOMES WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE ERN
CONUS. THE 00Z/01 MODEL SUITE DISAGREEMENT CENTERS AROUND
MAGNITUDE OF S/WV ENERGY ENTERING THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH AND
UPPER MS VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EC/UKMET SOLUTION FAVORS A
MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS WHICH LEADS TO A
STATIONARY FRONT INVOF THE MID ATLANTIC...WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION
FAVORS MORE OF A MERIDIONAL FLOW WHICH PLACES THIS FRONT FURTHER
TO THE NORTH.

DAY TO DAY...EXPECTING TEMPS ABV AVERAGE ON THU AND FRI W/GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS LIKELY. A GENERALLY DRY DAY EXPECTED THU WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY FRI AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY SAT... IT
WILL TURN BLUSTERY AND PRECIP MAY TURN TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...DEPENDING ON THE THERMAL PROFILE. THIS BEARS WATCHING. A
BRIEF REPRIVE ON SUNDAY BEFORE A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ATTEMPTS TO
SETUP INVOF THE MID ATLANTIC IN THE MON THRU WED TIME FRAME. THIS
FAVORS AN OVERRUNNING REGIME...AND WITH THE ADDITION OF GULF
MOISTURE...HEAVY RAINFALL IS A POSSIBILITY DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...A VFR CU BASED CIG MIGHT FORM AT NORTHERN
AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. ELSEWHERE WE ARE EXPECTING THEM TO BE
SCATTERED OR LESS. WINDS SHOULD BACK EVER SO SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE
WEST WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS, NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. SOME CIRRUS
CLOUDS WILL PASS BY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA AND TSRA.

SATURDAY...MVFR IN SHRA EARLY...GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARING OUR AREA, SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SCA CRITERIA
LATE ON THU AND CONTINUE THRU SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...SOUTHWEST
WINDS ON THU AND FRI ARE ANTICIPATED TO VEER NORTHWEST BY FRI
NIGHT... AND REMAIN AOB THE SCA THRESHOLD DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
THE SCA THRESHOLD ATTM.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/GIGI
MARINE...FRANCK/GIGI




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011524
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1124 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY...THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...AND CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~1022 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED FROM WRN MD SE INTO NORTH CENTRAL VA. NW FLOW PREVAILS
ALOFT. CLEAR SKIES THROUGHOUT THE LOCAL AREA...SOMEWHAT GUSTY N/NE
WIND OF 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KT WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH INTO
THE EARLY AFTN HRS AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION. AFTER
18Z...MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT (STAYING A
LITTLE ELEVATED IN NE NC). 15Z TEMPERATURES AVG IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE LOWER 50S WELL INLAND. WITH
FULL SUN SHOULD SEE ABOUT A 10 DEGREE RISE FROM THESE VALUES
INLAND...A TAD LESS ON THE COAST AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE E/NE LATER
IN THE AFTN DUE TO A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN SOUTH CENTRAL VA TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG
THE COAST OF THE ERN SHORE (MOST LOCATIONS IN THE CWA IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE TNGT/THU MRNG. LGT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS MNLY
IN THE L/M30S MOST INLAND PLACES TO ARND 40F AT THE IMMEDIATE
CST.

WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WX DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE WITHIN A
WARMING AIRMASS AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP BY THE AFTN. MOST
INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE L70S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE L/M60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

INCREASING CLOUDS THU NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE
COAST AND A MORE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. IN GENERAL...MODELS
RMN SLOWER AT BRINGING IN DEEP MOISTURE AND THE NRN STREAM AND
SRN STREAM ARE SLOWER TO PHASE. WILL CONT W/ HIGHEST POPS ON FRI
TO NNW 1/3RD OF FA BY LT TNGT THROUGH FRI. VERY MILD THU NIGHT IN
SSW FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS...LOWS IN THE 50S TO POSSIBLY AS
WARM AS 60F IN A FEW SPOTS. WARM/VARIABLY CLOUDY FRI WITH 20-30%
CHC FOR -SHRA AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY TSTMS AS THE SFC FRONT
MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE M/U70S...POSSIBLY
CLOSE TO 80F IF ENOUGH SUN CAN PREVAIL (U60S/L70S ON THE ERN
SHORE). MAIN RAIN EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRI NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WET AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FRI NIGHT...THEN OFF THE CST SAT MRNG. STILL SOME MINOR
SPATIAL AND TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WRT ASSOCIATED SRN
STREAM ENERGY AND THE COLD FRONT...BUT MOSTLY NOW WITH HOW QUICK
PRECIP CLEARS THE COAST SAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FRI
NIGHT...EXCEPT THE SE. THETA-E ADVECTION AND MILD TEMPS WILL
RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY FRI EVENING. SOUNDINGS ALSO
INDICATE SHARPENING LAPSE RATES AS TEMPS ALOFT COOL. WILL
INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI EVENING. COLD FRONT EXITS THE
COAST SAT MRNG AS THE PARENT LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFT INTO
THE NE STATES/CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST SAT AFTN...REMAINING OVER THE REGION THRU SUN. THE RESULT
WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SAT-SUN GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S INLAND AND
MID-UPPER 50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER SERN
CANADA THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
OFFSHORE SUN AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES.
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF BEGINS TO SPREAD BACK NWD INTO THE MIDWEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE WLY FLOW CROSS THE
REGION. BEGIN TO REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE- LOW END CHANCE POPS
TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGHS MON IN THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AND UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 40S-LOW 50S. HIGHS TUES IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID-UPPER
60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LO PRES WILL MOVE FARTHER ENE INTO THE NRN ATLC THIS MORNG...WHILE
HI PRES BLDS INTO THE AREA FM THE NW. OTHER THAN SCT TO BKN SC
(2000-3000 FT) AT SBY EARLY THIS MORNG...EXPECT ONLY SCT CI AND
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THU MORNG. N WINDS 10 TO 15 KT AND GUSTY
EXPECTED THRU MIDDAY TODAY...THEN TURNING TO THE NE AND SE OR S
LATER TODAY INTO THU MORNG WHILE BECOMING LIGHT.

OUTLOOK...HI PRES MOVES OFF THE CST ON THU...AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH FM THE NW. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRI INTO
SAT MORNG...AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACRS THE REGION. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...SCA EXTENDED FOR SRN CHES BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND UNTIL
1 PM DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AROUND 20 KT. ALSO EXTENDED SCA FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS FOR SEAS AT 5 FT. WILL MONITOR DOWNWARD TRENDS TO
SEE IF ANOTHER EXTENSION IS NEEDED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL
LATER THIS AFTN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HI PRES WILL BLD INTO THE AREA FM THE NW
TODAY...THEN WILL SLIDE OFF THE CST ON THU. STRONG N OR NW WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT WILL OCCUR THRU THIS MORNG.
SEAS WILL BLD TO 3 TO 5 FT OVR THE CSTL WTRS...AND WAVES WILL BLD
TO 3 TO 4 FT OVR THE CHES BAY. THUS...SCA`S WILL REMAIN UP OVR THE
WTRS UNTIL 10 AM OR NOON. WINDS/SEAS WILL DIMINISH/SUBSIDE THIS
AFTN INTO THIS EVENG...AS THE HI BLDS RIGHT OVR THE WTRS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE LATER TNGT AND THU...WITH FLOW
RETURNING TO THE S AOB 15 KT. SLY WINDS INCREASE THU...AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THURS-THURS EVENING WITH SLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT.
SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS ALSO PROGGED TO REACH 5 FT. FLOW BECOMES SW
FRI...AS THE FRONT HANGS UP ALONG THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. FRONT
FINALLY CROSSES THE WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNG.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT RICHMOND FOR TUESDAY MARCH 31ST HAS BEEN
RECORDED AS 74 DEGREES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ632>634-638-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...BMD/TMG
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011524
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1124 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY...THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...AND CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~1022 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED FROM WRN MD SE INTO NORTH CENTRAL VA. NW FLOW PREVAILS
ALOFT. CLEAR SKIES THROUGHOUT THE LOCAL AREA...SOMEWHAT GUSTY N/NE
WIND OF 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KT WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH INTO
THE EARLY AFTN HRS AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION. AFTER
18Z...MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT (STAYING A
LITTLE ELEVATED IN NE NC). 15Z TEMPERATURES AVG IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE LOWER 50S WELL INLAND. WITH
FULL SUN SHOULD SEE ABOUT A 10 DEGREE RISE FROM THESE VALUES
INLAND...A TAD LESS ON THE COAST AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE E/NE LATER
IN THE AFTN DUE TO A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN SOUTH CENTRAL VA TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG
THE COAST OF THE ERN SHORE (MOST LOCATIONS IN THE CWA IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE TNGT/THU MRNG. LGT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS MNLY
IN THE L/M30S MOST INLAND PLACES TO ARND 40F AT THE IMMEDIATE
CST.

WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WX DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE WITHIN A
WARMING AIRMASS AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP BY THE AFTN. MOST
INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE L70S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE L/M60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

INCREASING CLOUDS THU NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE
COAST AND A MORE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. IN GENERAL...MODELS
RMN SLOWER AT BRINGING IN DEEP MOISTURE AND THE NRN STREAM AND
SRN STREAM ARE SLOWER TO PHASE. WILL CONT W/ HIGHEST POPS ON FRI
TO NNW 1/3RD OF FA BY LT TNGT THROUGH FRI. VERY MILD THU NIGHT IN
SSW FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS...LOWS IN THE 50S TO POSSIBLY AS
WARM AS 60F IN A FEW SPOTS. WARM/VARIABLY CLOUDY FRI WITH 20-30%
CHC FOR -SHRA AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY TSTMS AS THE SFC FRONT
MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE M/U70S...POSSIBLY
CLOSE TO 80F IF ENOUGH SUN CAN PREVAIL (U60S/L70S ON THE ERN
SHORE). MAIN RAIN EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRI NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WET AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FRI NIGHT...THEN OFF THE CST SAT MRNG. STILL SOME MINOR
SPATIAL AND TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WRT ASSOCIATED SRN
STREAM ENERGY AND THE COLD FRONT...BUT MOSTLY NOW WITH HOW QUICK
PRECIP CLEARS THE COAST SAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FRI
NIGHT...EXCEPT THE SE. THETA-E ADVECTION AND MILD TEMPS WILL
RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY FRI EVENING. SOUNDINGS ALSO
INDICATE SHARPENING LAPSE RATES AS TEMPS ALOFT COOL. WILL
INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI EVENING. COLD FRONT EXITS THE
COAST SAT MRNG AS THE PARENT LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFT INTO
THE NE STATES/CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST SAT AFTN...REMAINING OVER THE REGION THRU SUN. THE RESULT
WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SAT-SUN GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S INLAND AND
MID-UPPER 50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER SERN
CANADA THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
OFFSHORE SUN AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES.
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF BEGINS TO SPREAD BACK NWD INTO THE MIDWEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE WLY FLOW CROSS THE
REGION. BEGIN TO REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE- LOW END CHANCE POPS
TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGHS MON IN THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AND UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 40S-LOW 50S. HIGHS TUES IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID-UPPER
60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LO PRES WILL MOVE FARTHER ENE INTO THE NRN ATLC THIS MORNG...WHILE
HI PRES BLDS INTO THE AREA FM THE NW. OTHER THAN SCT TO BKN SC
(2000-3000 FT) AT SBY EARLY THIS MORNG...EXPECT ONLY SCT CI AND
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THU MORNG. N WINDS 10 TO 15 KT AND GUSTY
EXPECTED THRU MIDDAY TODAY...THEN TURNING TO THE NE AND SE OR S
LATER TODAY INTO THU MORNG WHILE BECOMING LIGHT.

OUTLOOK...HI PRES MOVES OFF THE CST ON THU...AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH FM THE NW. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRI INTO
SAT MORNG...AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACRS THE REGION. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...SCA EXTENDED FOR SRN CHES BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND UNTIL
1 PM DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AROUND 20 KT. ALSO EXTENDED SCA FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS FOR SEAS AT 5 FT. WILL MONITOR DOWNWARD TRENDS TO
SEE IF ANOTHER EXTENSION IS NEEDED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL
LATER THIS AFTN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HI PRES WILL BLD INTO THE AREA FM THE NW
TODAY...THEN WILL SLIDE OFF THE CST ON THU. STRONG N OR NW WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT WILL OCCUR THRU THIS MORNG.
SEAS WILL BLD TO 3 TO 5 FT OVR THE CSTL WTRS...AND WAVES WILL BLD
TO 3 TO 4 FT OVR THE CHES BAY. THUS...SCA`S WILL REMAIN UP OVR THE
WTRS UNTIL 10 AM OR NOON. WINDS/SEAS WILL DIMINISH/SUBSIDE THIS
AFTN INTO THIS EVENG...AS THE HI BLDS RIGHT OVR THE WTRS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE LATER TNGT AND THU...WITH FLOW
RETURNING TO THE S AOB 15 KT. SLY WINDS INCREASE THU...AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THURS-THURS EVENING WITH SLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT.
SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS ALSO PROGGED TO REACH 5 FT. FLOW BECOMES SW
FRI...AS THE FRONT HANGS UP ALONG THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. FRONT
FINALLY CROSSES THE WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNG.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT RICHMOND FOR TUESDAY MARCH 31ST HAS BEEN
RECORDED AS 74 DEGREES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ632>634-638-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...BMD/TMG
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011458
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1058 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY...THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...AND CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~1022 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED FROM WRN MD SE INTO NORTH CENTRAL VA. NW FLOW PREVAILS
ALOFT. CLEAR SKIES THROUGHOUT THE LOCAL AREA...SOMEWHAT GUSTY N/NE
WIND OF 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KT WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH INTO
THE EARLY AFTN HRS AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION. AFTER
18Z...MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT (STAYING A
LITTLE ELEVATED IN NE NC). 15Z TEMPERATURES AVG IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE LOWER 50S WELL INLAND. WITH
FULL SUN SHOULD SEE ABOUT A 10 DEGREE RISE FROM THESE VALUES
INLAND...A TAD LESS ON THE COAST AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE E/NE LATER
IN THE AFTN DUE TO A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN SOUTH CENTRAL VA TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG
THE COAST OF THE ERN SHORE (MOST LOCATIONS IN THE CWA IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE TNGT/THU MRNG. LGT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS MNLY
IN THE L/M30S MOST INLAND PLACES TO ARND 40F AT THE IMMEDIATE
CST.

WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WX DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE WITHIN A
WARMING AIRMASS AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP BY THE AFTN. MOST
INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE L70S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE L/M60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

INCREASING CLOUDS THU NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE
COAST AND A MORE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. IN GENERAL...MODELS
RMN SLOWER AT BRINGING IN DEEP MOISTURE AND THE NRN STREAM AND
SRN STREAM ARE SLOWER TO PHASE. WILL CONT W/ HIGHEST POPS ON FRI
TO NNW 1/3RD OF FA BY LT TNGT THROUGH FRI. VERY MILD THU NIGHT IN
SSW FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS...LOWS IN THE 50S TO POSSIBLY AS
WARM AS 60F IN A FEW SPOTS. WARM/VARIABLY CLOUDY FRI WITH 20-30%
CHC FOR -SHRA AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY TSTMS AS THE SFC FRONT
MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE M/U70S...POSSIBLY
CLOSE TO 80F IF ENOUGH SUN CAN PREVAIL (U60S/L70S ON THE ERN
SHORE). MAIN RAIN EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRI NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WET AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FRI NIGHT...THEN OFF THE CST SAT MRNG. STILL SOME MINOR
SPATIAL AND TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WRT ASSOCIATED SRN
STREAM ENERGY AND THE COLD FRONT...BUT MOSTLY NOW WITH HOW QUICK
PRECIP CLEARS THE COAST SAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FRI
NIGHT...EXCEPT THE SE. THETA-E ADVECTION AND MILD TEMPS WILL
RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY FRI EVENING. SOUNDINGS ALSO
INDICATE SHARPENING LAPSE RATES AS TEMPS ALOFT COOL. WILL
INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI EVENING. COLD FRONT EXITS THE
COAST SAT MRNG AS THE PARENT LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFT INTO
THE NE STATES/CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST SAT AFTN...REMAINING OVER THE REGION THRU SUN. THE RESULT
WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SAT-SUN GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S INLAND AND
MID-UPPER 50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER SERN
CANADA THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
OFFSHORE SUN AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES.
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF BEGINS TO SPREAD BACK NWD INTO THE MIDWEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE WLY FLOW CROSS THE
REGION. BEGIN TO REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE- LOW END CHANCE POPS
TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGHS MON IN THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AND UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 40S-LOW 50S. HIGHS TUES IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID-UPPER
60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LO PRES WILL MOVE FARTHER ENE INTO THE NRN ATLC THIS MORNG...WHILE
HI PRES BLDS INTO THE AREA FM THE NW. OTHER THAN SCT TO BKN SC
(2000-3000 FT) AT SBY EARLY THIS MORNG...EXPECT ONLY SCT CI AND
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THU MORNG. N WINDS 10 TO 15 KT AND GUSTY
EXPECTED THRU MIDDAY TODAY...THEN TURNING TO THE NE AND SE OR S
LATER TODAY INTO THU MORNG WHILE BECOMING LIGHT.

OUTLOOK...HI PRES MOVES OFF THE CST ON THU...AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH FM THE NW. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRI INTO
SAT MORNG...AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACRS THE REGION. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
HI PRES WILL BLD INTO THE AREA FM THE NW TODAY...THEN WILL SLIDE
OFF THE CST ON THU. STRONG N OR NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 30 KT WILL OCCUR THRU THIS MORNG. SEAS WILL BLD TO 3 TO 5
FT OVR THE CSTL WTRS...AND WAVES WILL BLD TO 3 TO 4 FT OVR THE
CHES BAY. THUS...SCA`S WILL REMAIN UP OVR THE WTRS UNTIL 10 AM OR
NOON. WINDS/SEAS WILL DIMINISH/SUBSIDE THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENG...AS THE HI BLDS RIGHT OVR THE WTRS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE LATER TNGT AND THU...WITH FLOW
RETURNING TO THE S AOB 15 KT. SLY WINDS INCREASE THU...AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THURS-THURS EVENING WITH SLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT.
SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS ALSO PROGGED TO REACH 5 FT. FLOW BECOMES SW
FRI...AS THE FRONT HANGS UP ALONG THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. FRONT
FINALLY CROSSES THE WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNG.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT RICHMOND FOR TUESDAY MARCH 31ST HAS BEEN
RECORDED AS 74 DEGREES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ632>634-638-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG
CLIMATE...LKB



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011458
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1058 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY...THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...AND CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~1022 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED FROM WRN MD SE INTO NORTH CENTRAL VA. NW FLOW PREVAILS
ALOFT. CLEAR SKIES THROUGHOUT THE LOCAL AREA...SOMEWHAT GUSTY N/NE
WIND OF 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KT WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH INTO
THE EARLY AFTN HRS AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION. AFTER
18Z...MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT (STAYING A
LITTLE ELEVATED IN NE NC). 15Z TEMPERATURES AVG IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE LOWER 50S WELL INLAND. WITH
FULL SUN SHOULD SEE ABOUT A 10 DEGREE RISE FROM THESE VALUES
INLAND...A TAD LESS ON THE COAST AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE E/NE LATER
IN THE AFTN DUE TO A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN SOUTH CENTRAL VA TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG
THE COAST OF THE ERN SHORE (MOST LOCATIONS IN THE CWA IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE TNGT/THU MRNG. LGT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS MNLY
IN THE L/M30S MOST INLAND PLACES TO ARND 40F AT THE IMMEDIATE
CST.

WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WX DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE WITHIN A
WARMING AIRMASS AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP BY THE AFTN. MOST
INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE L70S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE L/M60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

INCREASING CLOUDS THU NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE
COAST AND A MORE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. IN GENERAL...MODELS
RMN SLOWER AT BRINGING IN DEEP MOISTURE AND THE NRN STREAM AND
SRN STREAM ARE SLOWER TO PHASE. WILL CONT W/ HIGHEST POPS ON FRI
TO NNW 1/3RD OF FA BY LT TNGT THROUGH FRI. VERY MILD THU NIGHT IN
SSW FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS...LOWS IN THE 50S TO POSSIBLY AS
WARM AS 60F IN A FEW SPOTS. WARM/VARIABLY CLOUDY FRI WITH 20-30%
CHC FOR -SHRA AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY TSTMS AS THE SFC FRONT
MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE M/U70S...POSSIBLY
CLOSE TO 80F IF ENOUGH SUN CAN PREVAIL (U60S/L70S ON THE ERN
SHORE). MAIN RAIN EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRI NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WET AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FRI NIGHT...THEN OFF THE CST SAT MRNG. STILL SOME MINOR
SPATIAL AND TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WRT ASSOCIATED SRN
STREAM ENERGY AND THE COLD FRONT...BUT MOSTLY NOW WITH HOW QUICK
PRECIP CLEARS THE COAST SAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FRI
NIGHT...EXCEPT THE SE. THETA-E ADVECTION AND MILD TEMPS WILL
RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY FRI EVENING. SOUNDINGS ALSO
INDICATE SHARPENING LAPSE RATES AS TEMPS ALOFT COOL. WILL
INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI EVENING. COLD FRONT EXITS THE
COAST SAT MRNG AS THE PARENT LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFT INTO
THE NE STATES/CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST SAT AFTN...REMAINING OVER THE REGION THRU SUN. THE RESULT
WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SAT-SUN GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S INLAND AND
MID-UPPER 50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER SERN
CANADA THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
OFFSHORE SUN AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES.
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF BEGINS TO SPREAD BACK NWD INTO THE MIDWEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE WLY FLOW CROSS THE
REGION. BEGIN TO REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE- LOW END CHANCE POPS
TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGHS MON IN THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AND UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 40S-LOW 50S. HIGHS TUES IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID-UPPER
60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LO PRES WILL MOVE FARTHER ENE INTO THE NRN ATLC THIS MORNG...WHILE
HI PRES BLDS INTO THE AREA FM THE NW. OTHER THAN SCT TO BKN SC
(2000-3000 FT) AT SBY EARLY THIS MORNG...EXPECT ONLY SCT CI AND
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THU MORNG. N WINDS 10 TO 15 KT AND GUSTY
EXPECTED THRU MIDDAY TODAY...THEN TURNING TO THE NE AND SE OR S
LATER TODAY INTO THU MORNG WHILE BECOMING LIGHT.

OUTLOOK...HI PRES MOVES OFF THE CST ON THU...AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH FM THE NW. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRI INTO
SAT MORNG...AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACRS THE REGION. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
HI PRES WILL BLD INTO THE AREA FM THE NW TODAY...THEN WILL SLIDE
OFF THE CST ON THU. STRONG N OR NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 30 KT WILL OCCUR THRU THIS MORNG. SEAS WILL BLD TO 3 TO 5
FT OVR THE CSTL WTRS...AND WAVES WILL BLD TO 3 TO 4 FT OVR THE
CHES BAY. THUS...SCA`S WILL REMAIN UP OVR THE WTRS UNTIL 10 AM OR
NOON. WINDS/SEAS WILL DIMINISH/SUBSIDE THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENG...AS THE HI BLDS RIGHT OVR THE WTRS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE LATER TNGT AND THU...WITH FLOW
RETURNING TO THE S AOB 15 KT. SLY WINDS INCREASE THU...AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THURS-THURS EVENING WITH SLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT.
SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS ALSO PROGGED TO REACH 5 FT. FLOW BECOMES SW
FRI...AS THE FRONT HANGS UP ALONG THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. FRONT
FINALLY CROSSES THE WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNG.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT RICHMOND FOR TUESDAY MARCH 31ST HAS BEEN
RECORDED AS 74 DEGREES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ632>634-638-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG
CLIMATE...LKB




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011458
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1058 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY...THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...AND CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~1022 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED FROM WRN MD SE INTO NORTH CENTRAL VA. NW FLOW PREVAILS
ALOFT. CLEAR SKIES THROUGHOUT THE LOCAL AREA...SOMEWHAT GUSTY N/NE
WIND OF 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KT WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH INTO
THE EARLY AFTN HRS AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION. AFTER
18Z...MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT (STAYING A
LITTLE ELEVATED IN NE NC). 15Z TEMPERATURES AVG IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE LOWER 50S WELL INLAND. WITH
FULL SUN SHOULD SEE ABOUT A 10 DEGREE RISE FROM THESE VALUES
INLAND...A TAD LESS ON THE COAST AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE E/NE LATER
IN THE AFTN DUE TO A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN SOUTH CENTRAL VA TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG
THE COAST OF THE ERN SHORE (MOST LOCATIONS IN THE CWA IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE TNGT/THU MRNG. LGT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS MNLY
IN THE L/M30S MOST INLAND PLACES TO ARND 40F AT THE IMMEDIATE
CST.

WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WX DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE WITHIN A
WARMING AIRMASS AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP BY THE AFTN. MOST
INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE L70S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE L/M60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

INCREASING CLOUDS THU NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE
COAST AND A MORE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. IN GENERAL...MODELS
RMN SLOWER AT BRINGING IN DEEP MOISTURE AND THE NRN STREAM AND
SRN STREAM ARE SLOWER TO PHASE. WILL CONT W/ HIGHEST POPS ON FRI
TO NNW 1/3RD OF FA BY LT TNGT THROUGH FRI. VERY MILD THU NIGHT IN
SSW FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS...LOWS IN THE 50S TO POSSIBLY AS
WARM AS 60F IN A FEW SPOTS. WARM/VARIABLY CLOUDY FRI WITH 20-30%
CHC FOR -SHRA AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY TSTMS AS THE SFC FRONT
MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE M/U70S...POSSIBLY
CLOSE TO 80F IF ENOUGH SUN CAN PREVAIL (U60S/L70S ON THE ERN
SHORE). MAIN RAIN EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRI NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WET AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FRI NIGHT...THEN OFF THE CST SAT MRNG. STILL SOME MINOR
SPATIAL AND TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WRT ASSOCIATED SRN
STREAM ENERGY AND THE COLD FRONT...BUT MOSTLY NOW WITH HOW QUICK
PRECIP CLEARS THE COAST SAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FRI
NIGHT...EXCEPT THE SE. THETA-E ADVECTION AND MILD TEMPS WILL
RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY FRI EVENING. SOUNDINGS ALSO
INDICATE SHARPENING LAPSE RATES AS TEMPS ALOFT COOL. WILL
INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI EVENING. COLD FRONT EXITS THE
COAST SAT MRNG AS THE PARENT LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFT INTO
THE NE STATES/CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST SAT AFTN...REMAINING OVER THE REGION THRU SUN. THE RESULT
WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SAT-SUN GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S INLAND AND
MID-UPPER 50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER SERN
CANADA THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
OFFSHORE SUN AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES.
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF BEGINS TO SPREAD BACK NWD INTO THE MIDWEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE WLY FLOW CROSS THE
REGION. BEGIN TO REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE- LOW END CHANCE POPS
TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGHS MON IN THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AND UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 40S-LOW 50S. HIGHS TUES IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID-UPPER
60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LO PRES WILL MOVE FARTHER ENE INTO THE NRN ATLC THIS MORNG...WHILE
HI PRES BLDS INTO THE AREA FM THE NW. OTHER THAN SCT TO BKN SC
(2000-3000 FT) AT SBY EARLY THIS MORNG...EXPECT ONLY SCT CI AND
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THU MORNG. N WINDS 10 TO 15 KT AND GUSTY
EXPECTED THRU MIDDAY TODAY...THEN TURNING TO THE NE AND SE OR S
LATER TODAY INTO THU MORNG WHILE BECOMING LIGHT.

OUTLOOK...HI PRES MOVES OFF THE CST ON THU...AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH FM THE NW. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRI INTO
SAT MORNG...AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACRS THE REGION. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
HI PRES WILL BLD INTO THE AREA FM THE NW TODAY...THEN WILL SLIDE
OFF THE CST ON THU. STRONG N OR NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 30 KT WILL OCCUR THRU THIS MORNG. SEAS WILL BLD TO 3 TO 5
FT OVR THE CSTL WTRS...AND WAVES WILL BLD TO 3 TO 4 FT OVR THE
CHES BAY. THUS...SCA`S WILL REMAIN UP OVR THE WTRS UNTIL 10 AM OR
NOON. WINDS/SEAS WILL DIMINISH/SUBSIDE THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENG...AS THE HI BLDS RIGHT OVR THE WTRS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE LATER TNGT AND THU...WITH FLOW
RETURNING TO THE S AOB 15 KT. SLY WINDS INCREASE THU...AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THURS-THURS EVENING WITH SLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT.
SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS ALSO PROGGED TO REACH 5 FT. FLOW BECOMES SW
FRI...AS THE FRONT HANGS UP ALONG THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. FRONT
FINALLY CROSSES THE WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNG.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT RICHMOND FOR TUESDAY MARCH 31ST HAS BEEN
RECORDED AS 74 DEGREES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ632>634-638-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG
CLIMATE...LKB




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011458
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1058 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY...THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...AND CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~1022 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED FROM WRN MD SE INTO NORTH CENTRAL VA. NW FLOW PREVAILS
ALOFT. CLEAR SKIES THROUGHOUT THE LOCAL AREA...SOMEWHAT GUSTY N/NE
WIND OF 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KT WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH INTO
THE EARLY AFTN HRS AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION. AFTER
18Z...MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT (STAYING A
LITTLE ELEVATED IN NE NC). 15Z TEMPERATURES AVG IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE LOWER 50S WELL INLAND. WITH
FULL SUN SHOULD SEE ABOUT A 10 DEGREE RISE FROM THESE VALUES
INLAND...A TAD LESS ON THE COAST AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE E/NE LATER
IN THE AFTN DUE TO A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN SOUTH CENTRAL VA TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG
THE COAST OF THE ERN SHORE (MOST LOCATIONS IN THE CWA IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE TNGT/THU MRNG. LGT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS MNLY
IN THE L/M30S MOST INLAND PLACES TO ARND 40F AT THE IMMEDIATE
CST.

WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WX DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE WITHIN A
WARMING AIRMASS AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP BY THE AFTN. MOST
INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE L70S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE L/M60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

INCREASING CLOUDS THU NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE
COAST AND A MORE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. IN GENERAL...MODELS
RMN SLOWER AT BRINGING IN DEEP MOISTURE AND THE NRN STREAM AND
SRN STREAM ARE SLOWER TO PHASE. WILL CONT W/ HIGHEST POPS ON FRI
TO NNW 1/3RD OF FA BY LT TNGT THROUGH FRI. VERY MILD THU NIGHT IN
SSW FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS...LOWS IN THE 50S TO POSSIBLY AS
WARM AS 60F IN A FEW SPOTS. WARM/VARIABLY CLOUDY FRI WITH 20-30%
CHC FOR -SHRA AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY TSTMS AS THE SFC FRONT
MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE M/U70S...POSSIBLY
CLOSE TO 80F IF ENOUGH SUN CAN PREVAIL (U60S/L70S ON THE ERN
SHORE). MAIN RAIN EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRI NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WET AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FRI NIGHT...THEN OFF THE CST SAT MRNG. STILL SOME MINOR
SPATIAL AND TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WRT ASSOCIATED SRN
STREAM ENERGY AND THE COLD FRONT...BUT MOSTLY NOW WITH HOW QUICK
PRECIP CLEARS THE COAST SAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FRI
NIGHT...EXCEPT THE SE. THETA-E ADVECTION AND MILD TEMPS WILL
RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY FRI EVENING. SOUNDINGS ALSO
INDICATE SHARPENING LAPSE RATES AS TEMPS ALOFT COOL. WILL
INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI EVENING. COLD FRONT EXITS THE
COAST SAT MRNG AS THE PARENT LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFT INTO
THE NE STATES/CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST SAT AFTN...REMAINING OVER THE REGION THRU SUN. THE RESULT
WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SAT-SUN GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S INLAND AND
MID-UPPER 50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER SERN
CANADA THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
OFFSHORE SUN AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES.
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF BEGINS TO SPREAD BACK NWD INTO THE MIDWEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE WLY FLOW CROSS THE
REGION. BEGIN TO REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE- LOW END CHANCE POPS
TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGHS MON IN THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AND UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 40S-LOW 50S. HIGHS TUES IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID-UPPER
60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LO PRES WILL MOVE FARTHER ENE INTO THE NRN ATLC THIS MORNG...WHILE
HI PRES BLDS INTO THE AREA FM THE NW. OTHER THAN SCT TO BKN SC
(2000-3000 FT) AT SBY EARLY THIS MORNG...EXPECT ONLY SCT CI AND
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THU MORNG. N WINDS 10 TO 15 KT AND GUSTY
EXPECTED THRU MIDDAY TODAY...THEN TURNING TO THE NE AND SE OR S
LATER TODAY INTO THU MORNG WHILE BECOMING LIGHT.

OUTLOOK...HI PRES MOVES OFF THE CST ON THU...AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH FM THE NW. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRI INTO
SAT MORNG...AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACRS THE REGION. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
HI PRES WILL BLD INTO THE AREA FM THE NW TODAY...THEN WILL SLIDE
OFF THE CST ON THU. STRONG N OR NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 30 KT WILL OCCUR THRU THIS MORNG. SEAS WILL BLD TO 3 TO 5
FT OVR THE CSTL WTRS...AND WAVES WILL BLD TO 3 TO 4 FT OVR THE
CHES BAY. THUS...SCA`S WILL REMAIN UP OVR THE WTRS UNTIL 10 AM OR
NOON. WINDS/SEAS WILL DIMINISH/SUBSIDE THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENG...AS THE HI BLDS RIGHT OVR THE WTRS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE LATER TNGT AND THU...WITH FLOW
RETURNING TO THE S AOB 15 KT. SLY WINDS INCREASE THU...AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THURS-THURS EVENING WITH SLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT.
SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS ALSO PROGGED TO REACH 5 FT. FLOW BECOMES SW
FRI...AS THE FRONT HANGS UP ALONG THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. FRONT
FINALLY CROSSES THE WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNG.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT RICHMOND FOR TUESDAY MARCH 31ST HAS BEEN
RECORDED AS 74 DEGREES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ632>634-638-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG
CLIMATE...LKB



000
FXUS61 KLWX 011359 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
959 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD TODAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL SETUP OVER THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND REMAIN PLACE INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND PLEASANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT LOW 60S OVER
CENTRAL VA.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN
FAIRLY LIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S CAN BE EXPECTED...EXCEPT
LOW 40S IN THE BALTIMORE/DC METRO CENTERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY IS WARM AND DRY WITH SWLY FLOW INCREASING AROUND THE
DEVELOPING BERMUDA HIGH. FIRE WX THREAT AGAIN THAT DAY (SEE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW). CONTINUED GOING ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPS WITH LOW TO MID 70S WEST AND SOUTH FROM DC WITH MID TO UPR
60S FOR CNTRL MD/BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THU NGT A COLD FNT WL STRETCH FM NY STATE ACROSS OH TO MO. IN THE
MID ATLC THIS WL LEAD TO A WARM NGT W/ LOWS IN THE 50S W/ CHC POPS
ACROSS THE WRN PART OF THE FCST AREA. IT APPEARS THAT LOW PRES WL
DVLP ALONG THE FNT OVR KY FRI. THIS WL KEEP THE FNT FM PUSHING
THRU THE AREA...AND WHILE IT WL BE M CLDY FRI IT WL ALSO BE WARM
W/ MUCH OF THE AREA XPCTD TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S DURG THE AFTN.

THE FNT IS XPCTD TO FINALLY MOVE THRU THE AREA FRI NGT. HV INCRSD
POPS TO 70 FRI AFTN/NGT. ISOLD THUNDER WL ALSO BE PSBL.

HIGH PRES WL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA SAT. XPCT A BRZY/M SUNNY
DAY W/ HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S.

HIGH PRES SETTLES OVR THE AREA SUN. LGTR WINDS W/ AFTN TEMPS
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 60S.

NEXT CHC OF RA LOOKS TO BE TUE/WED.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY. A FEW
GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE NEXT CHC FOR SUB VFR CONDS LOOKS TO BE LATE FRI/FRI NGT W/ A
CD FNTL PASSAGE. RW/ISOLD TSTMS PSBL. HIGH PRES RETURNS FOR SAT.
GUSTY WNW WINDS XPCTD. XCLNT FLYING CONDS XPCTD SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR THE MIDDLE TO LOWER BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC THROUGH 12
NOON TODAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
BECOMING SLY TONIGHT. WINDS INCREASE THURSDAY WITH SCA STARTING
LATE THURSDAY MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

RW/ISOLD TSTMS PSBL ON THE WATERS LATE FRI/FRI NGT. HIGH PRES BLDG
BACK INTO THE SAT WL LKLY LEAD TO THE ISSUANCE OF AN SCA. NO PROBS
XPCTD SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SLY/SWLY FLOW AROUND DEVELOPING BERMUDA HIGH BECOMES GUSTY THURSDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. GREATEST
FIRE THREAT IS IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA WHERE WINDS AND HIGHEST
TEMPERATURES MIX.

SAT LOOKS TO BE A BRZY/PSBLY WINDY DAY. DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH
RAIN FALLS FRI NGT WL DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF A FIRE THREAT EXISTS
SAT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...BAJ/ABW
LONG TERM...BAJ/ABW
AVIATION...KRW/ABW
MARINE...KRW/ABW
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KLWX 011359 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
959 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD TODAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL SETUP OVER THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND REMAIN PLACE INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND PLEASANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT LOW 60S OVER
CENTRAL VA.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN
FAIRLY LIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S CAN BE EXPECTED...EXCEPT
LOW 40S IN THE BALTIMORE/DC METRO CENTERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY IS WARM AND DRY WITH SWLY FLOW INCREASING AROUND THE
DEVELOPING BERMUDA HIGH. FIRE WX THREAT AGAIN THAT DAY (SEE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW). CONTINUED GOING ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPS WITH LOW TO MID 70S WEST AND SOUTH FROM DC WITH MID TO UPR
60S FOR CNTRL MD/BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THU NGT A COLD FNT WL STRETCH FM NY STATE ACROSS OH TO MO. IN THE
MID ATLC THIS WL LEAD TO A WARM NGT W/ LOWS IN THE 50S W/ CHC POPS
ACROSS THE WRN PART OF THE FCST AREA. IT APPEARS THAT LOW PRES WL
DVLP ALONG THE FNT OVR KY FRI. THIS WL KEEP THE FNT FM PUSHING
THRU THE AREA...AND WHILE IT WL BE M CLDY FRI IT WL ALSO BE WARM
W/ MUCH OF THE AREA XPCTD TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S DURG THE AFTN.

THE FNT IS XPCTD TO FINALLY MOVE THRU THE AREA FRI NGT. HV INCRSD
POPS TO 70 FRI AFTN/NGT. ISOLD THUNDER WL ALSO BE PSBL.

HIGH PRES WL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA SAT. XPCT A BRZY/M SUNNY
DAY W/ HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S.

HIGH PRES SETTLES OVR THE AREA SUN. LGTR WINDS W/ AFTN TEMPS
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 60S.

NEXT CHC OF RA LOOKS TO BE TUE/WED.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY. A FEW
GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE NEXT CHC FOR SUB VFR CONDS LOOKS TO BE LATE FRI/FRI NGT W/ A
CD FNTL PASSAGE. RW/ISOLD TSTMS PSBL. HIGH PRES RETURNS FOR SAT.
GUSTY WNW WINDS XPCTD. XCLNT FLYING CONDS XPCTD SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR THE MIDDLE TO LOWER BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC THROUGH 12
NOON TODAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
BECOMING SLY TONIGHT. WINDS INCREASE THURSDAY WITH SCA STARTING
LATE THURSDAY MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

RW/ISOLD TSTMS PSBL ON THE WATERS LATE FRI/FRI NGT. HIGH PRES BLDG
BACK INTO THE SAT WL LKLY LEAD TO THE ISSUANCE OF AN SCA. NO PROBS
XPCTD SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SLY/SWLY FLOW AROUND DEVELOPING BERMUDA HIGH BECOMES GUSTY THURSDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. GREATEST
FIRE THREAT IS IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA WHERE WINDS AND HIGHEST
TEMPERATURES MIX.

SAT LOOKS TO BE A BRZY/PSBLY WINDY DAY. DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH
RAIN FALLS FRI NGT WL DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF A FIRE THREAT EXISTS
SAT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...BAJ/ABW
LONG TERM...BAJ/ABW
AVIATION...KRW/ABW
MARINE...KRW/ABW
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 011330
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
930 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION TODAY AND SLOWLY MOVE
OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
SATURDAY MORNING. A WEAKER COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MAY STALL OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC THROUGH MID-WEEK...AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SKY OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA WAS PARTLY
CLOUDY AT MID MORNING. CONDITIONS WERE CLEAR OVER OUR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THOUGH THE
DAY WITH A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTH THAN OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES IN OUR REGION WERE MOSTLY IN THE 30S AROUND 900 AM.
AFTERNOON READINGS SHOULD RISE MAINLY INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 TO 15
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
BECAUSE OF THE UNSEASONABLY COLD FEBRUARY AND MARCH WE ARE
DELAYING THE START OF FROST AND FREEZE PRODUCTS FOR THE DELMARVA
UNTIL APRIL 11TH. EVEN LOCALLY, WE ARE WAY BEHIND. OUR NEIGHBOR`S
BEAUTIFUL WHITE MAGNOLIA TREES THAT NORMALLY BLOOM LIKE CLOCKWORK
ON THE FIRST DAY OF SPRING ARE NOT EVEN CLOSE, ESTIMATING WE ARE
ABOUT TWO WEEKS BEHIND SCHEDULE.

SPEAKING OF FROST WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING OVER OUR
CWA TONIGHT, EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. THE GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN TOWARD MORNING, BUT
SUSPECT THE RADIATIONAL INVERSION WILL PREVENT MIXING. AT THE
NORTH END OF OUR CWA SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD ARRIVE TOWARD
MORNING. BECAUSE WE ARE ON THE CONVERGENT SIDE OF THE JET AND
STRONG RIDGING IS PREDICTED OVERNIGHT, DO NOT BELIEVE THEY WILL
HAVE MUCH OF A THERMAL IMPACT. THUS MIN TEMPS IN OUTLYING AREAS
ARE AT OR BELOW STAT GUIDANCE. CLOSER TO STAT GUIDANCE IN URBAN
AND COASTAL AREAS.

THE GFS BRINGS MEASURABLE PCPN EVER SO CLOSE TO NJ TOWARD
MORNING, OVER THE PAST MONTH IN THE 24 TO 36 HR FORECAST TIME
FRAME, ITS EQUITABLE THREAT SCORE IS LOWER AND ITS (WET) BIAS WITH
THE .01 ISOHYET IS HIGHER THAN THE SREF, NAM OR ECMWF IN OUR
REGION. BTW AT 24 HOURS THE ECMWF AND AT 36 HR THE NAM HAS HAD THE
HIGHEST SCORE WITH THAT ISOHYET. THAT BEING SAID, THE GFS KEEPS
PREDICTED OMEGA, THETA E RDGG AND MID LEVEL WAA NORTH OF OUR CWA,
SO NO PCPN CORROBORATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE CRESTING OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS FRI NIGHT...WITH THE FLOW BACKING
SOUTHWEST...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG S/WV ON SATURDAY.
THEREAFTER...COMPLEX PATTERN SETS UP AS TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE
WESTERN US AND DOWNSTREAM FLOW BECOMES WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE ERN
CONUS. THE 00Z/01 MODEL SUITE DISAGREEMENT CENTERS AROUND
MAGNITUDE OF S/WV ENERGY ENTERING THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH AND
UPPER MS VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EC/UKMET SOLUTION FAVORS A
MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS WHICH LEADS TO A
STATIONARY FRONT INVOF THE MID ATLANTIC...WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION
FAVORS MORE OF A MERIDIONAL FLOW WHICH PLACES THIS FRONT FURTHER
TO THE NORTH.

DAY TO DAY...EXPECTING TEMPS ABV AVERAGE ON THU AND FRI W/GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS LIKELY. A GENERALLY DRY DAY EXPECTED THU WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY FRI AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY SAT... IT
WILL TURN BLUSTERY AND PRECIP MAY TURN TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...DEPENDING ON THE THERMAL PROFILE. THIS BEARS WATCHING. A
BRIEF REPRIVE ON SUNDAY BEFORE A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ATTEMPTS TO
SETUP INVOF THE MID ATLANTIC IN THE MON THRU WED TIME FRAME. THIS
FAVORS AN OVERRUNNING REGIME...AND WITH THE ADDITION OF GULF
MOISTURE...HEAVY RAINFALL IS A POSSIBILITY DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

NO BIG CHANGES WITH THE 12Z TAFS.

THIS MORNING...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15 KTS.
WE MIGHT HAVE SOME GUSTINESS, BUT BELIEVE THEY SHOULD BE UNDER 20
KTS AND HAVE NOT CARRIED THEM AT ANY TAF SITE.

THIS AFTERNOON...A VFR CU BASED CIG MIGHT FORM AT NORTHERN AND PA
AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. ELSEWHERE WE ARE EXPECTING THEM TO BE
SCATTERED OR LESS. WINDS SHOULD BACK EVER SO SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE
WEST WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS. NO CHANGE TO GUSTINESS THINKING.

TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS, NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. SOME CIRRUS
CLOUDS WILL PASS BY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA AND TSRA.

SATURDAY...MVFR IN SHRA EARLY...GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF A
RELAXING GRADIENT AND INCREASING AIR TEMPERATURES.

THEN WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARING OUR AREA, SUB SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SCA CRITERIA
LATE ON THU AND CONTINUE THRU SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...SOUTHWEST
WINDS ON THU AND FRI ARE ANTICIPATED TO VEER NORTHWEST BY FRI
NIGHT... AND REMAIN AOB THE SCA THRESHOLD DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
THE SCA THRESHOLD ATTM.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/GIGI
MARINE...FRANCK/GIGI



000
FXUS61 KPHI 011330
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
930 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION TODAY AND SLOWLY MOVE
OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
SATURDAY MORNING. A WEAKER COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MAY STALL OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC THROUGH MID-WEEK...AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SKY OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA WAS PARTLY
CLOUDY AT MID MORNING. CONDITIONS WERE CLEAR OVER OUR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THOUGH THE
DAY WITH A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTH THAN OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES IN OUR REGION WERE MOSTLY IN THE 30S AROUND 900 AM.
AFTERNOON READINGS SHOULD RISE MAINLY INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 TO 15
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
BECAUSE OF THE UNSEASONABLY COLD FEBRUARY AND MARCH WE ARE
DELAYING THE START OF FROST AND FREEZE PRODUCTS FOR THE DELMARVA
UNTIL APRIL 11TH. EVEN LOCALLY, WE ARE WAY BEHIND. OUR NEIGHBOR`S
BEAUTIFUL WHITE MAGNOLIA TREES THAT NORMALLY BLOOM LIKE CLOCKWORK
ON THE FIRST DAY OF SPRING ARE NOT EVEN CLOSE, ESTIMATING WE ARE
ABOUT TWO WEEKS BEHIND SCHEDULE.

SPEAKING OF FROST WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING OVER OUR
CWA TONIGHT, EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. THE GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN TOWARD MORNING, BUT
SUSPECT THE RADIATIONAL INVERSION WILL PREVENT MIXING. AT THE
NORTH END OF OUR CWA SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD ARRIVE TOWARD
MORNING. BECAUSE WE ARE ON THE CONVERGENT SIDE OF THE JET AND
STRONG RIDGING IS PREDICTED OVERNIGHT, DO NOT BELIEVE THEY WILL
HAVE MUCH OF A THERMAL IMPACT. THUS MIN TEMPS IN OUTLYING AREAS
ARE AT OR BELOW STAT GUIDANCE. CLOSER TO STAT GUIDANCE IN URBAN
AND COASTAL AREAS.

THE GFS BRINGS MEASURABLE PCPN EVER SO CLOSE TO NJ TOWARD
MORNING, OVER THE PAST MONTH IN THE 24 TO 36 HR FORECAST TIME
FRAME, ITS EQUITABLE THREAT SCORE IS LOWER AND ITS (WET) BIAS WITH
THE .01 ISOHYET IS HIGHER THAN THE SREF, NAM OR ECMWF IN OUR
REGION. BTW AT 24 HOURS THE ECMWF AND AT 36 HR THE NAM HAS HAD THE
HIGHEST SCORE WITH THAT ISOHYET. THAT BEING SAID, THE GFS KEEPS
PREDICTED OMEGA, THETA E RDGG AND MID LEVEL WAA NORTH OF OUR CWA,
SO NO PCPN CORROBORATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE CRESTING OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS FRI NIGHT...WITH THE FLOW BACKING
SOUTHWEST...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG S/WV ON SATURDAY.
THEREAFTER...COMPLEX PATTERN SETS UP AS TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE
WESTERN US AND DOWNSTREAM FLOW BECOMES WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE ERN
CONUS. THE 00Z/01 MODEL SUITE DISAGREEMENT CENTERS AROUND
MAGNITUDE OF S/WV ENERGY ENTERING THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH AND
UPPER MS VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EC/UKMET SOLUTION FAVORS A
MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS WHICH LEADS TO A
STATIONARY FRONT INVOF THE MID ATLANTIC...WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION
FAVORS MORE OF A MERIDIONAL FLOW WHICH PLACES THIS FRONT FURTHER
TO THE NORTH.

DAY TO DAY...EXPECTING TEMPS ABV AVERAGE ON THU AND FRI W/GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS LIKELY. A GENERALLY DRY DAY EXPECTED THU WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY FRI AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY SAT... IT
WILL TURN BLUSTERY AND PRECIP MAY TURN TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...DEPENDING ON THE THERMAL PROFILE. THIS BEARS WATCHING. A
BRIEF REPRIVE ON SUNDAY BEFORE A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ATTEMPTS TO
SETUP INVOF THE MID ATLANTIC IN THE MON THRU WED TIME FRAME. THIS
FAVORS AN OVERRUNNING REGIME...AND WITH THE ADDITION OF GULF
MOISTURE...HEAVY RAINFALL IS A POSSIBILITY DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

NO BIG CHANGES WITH THE 12Z TAFS.

THIS MORNING...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15 KTS.
WE MIGHT HAVE SOME GUSTINESS, BUT BELIEVE THEY SHOULD BE UNDER 20
KTS AND HAVE NOT CARRIED THEM AT ANY TAF SITE.

THIS AFTERNOON...A VFR CU BASED CIG MIGHT FORM AT NORTHERN AND PA
AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. ELSEWHERE WE ARE EXPECTING THEM TO BE
SCATTERED OR LESS. WINDS SHOULD BACK EVER SO SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE
WEST WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS. NO CHANGE TO GUSTINESS THINKING.

TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS, NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. SOME CIRRUS
CLOUDS WILL PASS BY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA AND TSRA.

SATURDAY...MVFR IN SHRA EARLY...GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF A
RELAXING GRADIENT AND INCREASING AIR TEMPERATURES.

THEN WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARING OUR AREA, SUB SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SCA CRITERIA
LATE ON THU AND CONTINUE THRU SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...SOUTHWEST
WINDS ON THU AND FRI ARE ANTICIPATED TO VEER NORTHWEST BY FRI
NIGHT... AND REMAIN AOB THE SCA THRESHOLD DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
THE SCA THRESHOLD ATTM.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/GIGI
MARINE...FRANCK/GIGI




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011244
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
844 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARM THURSDAY WITH
INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
845 AM...NO MAJOR CHANGES OTHER THAN TO TWEAK HOURLY TRENDS.
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD OVERALL.

PREVIOUS...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PIT. OTHERWISE...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER TODAY WITH ANY REMAINING
CLOUDS DECREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON. NEAR AVERAGE HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED USING THE LATEST BIAS CORRECTED MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS WAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY WITH INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES. LIMITED INSTABILITY IS
PROGGED...BUT WITH A LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE AND SHOWALTER INDICIES
JUST BELOW ZERO...MAINTAINED THE CHANCE OF THUNDER. THE FRONT IS
PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AS A SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPS AND TRACKS ALONG IT...WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUING.
WITH THE RAIN PROGGED TO BE SPREAD OUT OVER A COUPLE OF DAYS...
SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH THE FRONT AND SURFACE WAVE EXITING. A BRIEF
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS THE PRECIP ENDS. ANY REMAINING
PRECIP CHANCES...MAINLY NE OF PIT...SHOULD DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON.

GENERALLY FOLLOWED A NAM/SREF/GFS BLEND FOR FORECAST DETAILS.
DISCOUNTED ECMWF/S STRONGER SURFACE WAVE WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG
DIGGING UPPER TROUGH. A BLEND OF SREF AND MOS DATA WAS USED FOR
THE TEMP FORECAST...RESULTING IN READINGS AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THURSDAY IN GUSTY SW WINDS...WITH A DECREASE TO BELOW
AVERAGE LEVELS AGAIN BY SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TRAILING SHORTWAVE IS STILL PROGGED TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS
ALONG A SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE
SITUATION...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE...SO SLIGHT...TO CHANCE POPS WERE CONFINED TO
NORTHERN COUNTIES.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO NEAR...THEN ABOVE
THE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS IN RESPONSE TO WESTERN STATES TROUGHING.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL RISE AS THE WEEK AND TROUGH PROGRESS.

THE LONG TERM PROGNOSIS WAS PRIMARILY BASED ON ADJUSTED WPC
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERAL VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT MOST PORTS DESPITE PASSAGE
OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TODAY. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT FKL AND DUJ
WHERE SOME EARLY LOCAL STRATUS AND MVFR STRATOCU ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THAT FEATURE. OTHERWISE...ONLY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL MAR
CONDITIONS.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS SHOWERS...AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATER THURSDAY...AND INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011244
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
844 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARM THURSDAY WITH
INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
845 AM...NO MAJOR CHANGES OTHER THAN TO TWEAK HOURLY TRENDS.
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD OVERALL.

PREVIOUS...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PIT. OTHERWISE...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER TODAY WITH ANY REMAINING
CLOUDS DECREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON. NEAR AVERAGE HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED USING THE LATEST BIAS CORRECTED MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS WAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY WITH INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES. LIMITED INSTABILITY IS
PROGGED...BUT WITH A LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE AND SHOWALTER INDICIES
JUST BELOW ZERO...MAINTAINED THE CHANCE OF THUNDER. THE FRONT IS
PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AS A SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPS AND TRACKS ALONG IT...WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUING.
WITH THE RAIN PROGGED TO BE SPREAD OUT OVER A COUPLE OF DAYS...
SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH THE FRONT AND SURFACE WAVE EXITING. A BRIEF
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS THE PRECIP ENDS. ANY REMAINING
PRECIP CHANCES...MAINLY NE OF PIT...SHOULD DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON.

GENERALLY FOLLOWED A NAM/SREF/GFS BLEND FOR FORECAST DETAILS.
DISCOUNTED ECMWF/S STRONGER SURFACE WAVE WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG
DIGGING UPPER TROUGH. A BLEND OF SREF AND MOS DATA WAS USED FOR
THE TEMP FORECAST...RESULTING IN READINGS AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THURSDAY IN GUSTY SW WINDS...WITH A DECREASE TO BELOW
AVERAGE LEVELS AGAIN BY SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TRAILING SHORTWAVE IS STILL PROGGED TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS
ALONG A SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE
SITUATION...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE...SO SLIGHT...TO CHANCE POPS WERE CONFINED TO
NORTHERN COUNTIES.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO NEAR...THEN ABOVE
THE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS IN RESPONSE TO WESTERN STATES TROUGHING.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL RISE AS THE WEEK AND TROUGH PROGRESS.

THE LONG TERM PROGNOSIS WAS PRIMARILY BASED ON ADJUSTED WPC
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERAL VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT MOST PORTS DESPITE PASSAGE
OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TODAY. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT FKL AND DUJ
WHERE SOME EARLY LOCAL STRATUS AND MVFR STRATOCU ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THAT FEATURE. OTHERWISE...ONLY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL MAR
CONDITIONS.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS SHOWERS...AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATER THURSDAY...AND INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011244
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
844 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARM THURSDAY WITH
INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
845 AM...NO MAJOR CHANGES OTHER THAN TO TWEAK HOURLY TRENDS.
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD OVERALL.

PREVIOUS...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PIT. OTHERWISE...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER TODAY WITH ANY REMAINING
CLOUDS DECREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON. NEAR AVERAGE HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED USING THE LATEST BIAS CORRECTED MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS WAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY WITH INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES. LIMITED INSTABILITY IS
PROGGED...BUT WITH A LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE AND SHOWALTER INDICIES
JUST BELOW ZERO...MAINTAINED THE CHANCE OF THUNDER. THE FRONT IS
PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AS A SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPS AND TRACKS ALONG IT...WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUING.
WITH THE RAIN PROGGED TO BE SPREAD OUT OVER A COUPLE OF DAYS...
SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH THE FRONT AND SURFACE WAVE EXITING. A BRIEF
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS THE PRECIP ENDS. ANY REMAINING
PRECIP CHANCES...MAINLY NE OF PIT...SHOULD DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON.

GENERALLY FOLLOWED A NAM/SREF/GFS BLEND FOR FORECAST DETAILS.
DISCOUNTED ECMWF/S STRONGER SURFACE WAVE WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG
DIGGING UPPER TROUGH. A BLEND OF SREF AND MOS DATA WAS USED FOR
THE TEMP FORECAST...RESULTING IN READINGS AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THURSDAY IN GUSTY SW WINDS...WITH A DECREASE TO BELOW
AVERAGE LEVELS AGAIN BY SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TRAILING SHORTWAVE IS STILL PROGGED TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS
ALONG A SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE
SITUATION...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE...SO SLIGHT...TO CHANCE POPS WERE CONFINED TO
NORTHERN COUNTIES.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO NEAR...THEN ABOVE
THE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS IN RESPONSE TO WESTERN STATES TROUGHING.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL RISE AS THE WEEK AND TROUGH PROGRESS.

THE LONG TERM PROGNOSIS WAS PRIMARILY BASED ON ADJUSTED WPC
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERAL VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT MOST PORTS DESPITE PASSAGE
OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TODAY. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT FKL AND DUJ
WHERE SOME EARLY LOCAL STRATUS AND MVFR STRATOCU ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THAT FEATURE. OTHERWISE...ONLY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL MAR
CONDITIONS.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS SHOWERS...AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATER THURSDAY...AND INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011244
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
844 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARM THURSDAY WITH
INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
845 AM...NO MAJOR CHANGES OTHER THAN TO TWEAK HOURLY TRENDS.
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD OVERALL.

PREVIOUS...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PIT. OTHERWISE...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER TODAY WITH ANY REMAINING
CLOUDS DECREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON. NEAR AVERAGE HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED USING THE LATEST BIAS CORRECTED MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS WAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY WITH INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES. LIMITED INSTABILITY IS
PROGGED...BUT WITH A LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE AND SHOWALTER INDICIES
JUST BELOW ZERO...MAINTAINED THE CHANCE OF THUNDER. THE FRONT IS
PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AS A SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPS AND TRACKS ALONG IT...WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUING.
WITH THE RAIN PROGGED TO BE SPREAD OUT OVER A COUPLE OF DAYS...
SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH THE FRONT AND SURFACE WAVE EXITING. A BRIEF
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS THE PRECIP ENDS. ANY REMAINING
PRECIP CHANCES...MAINLY NE OF PIT...SHOULD DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON.

GENERALLY FOLLOWED A NAM/SREF/GFS BLEND FOR FORECAST DETAILS.
DISCOUNTED ECMWF/S STRONGER SURFACE WAVE WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG
DIGGING UPPER TROUGH. A BLEND OF SREF AND MOS DATA WAS USED FOR
THE TEMP FORECAST...RESULTING IN READINGS AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THURSDAY IN GUSTY SW WINDS...WITH A DECREASE TO BELOW
AVERAGE LEVELS AGAIN BY SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TRAILING SHORTWAVE IS STILL PROGGED TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS
ALONG A SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE
SITUATION...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE...SO SLIGHT...TO CHANCE POPS WERE CONFINED TO
NORTHERN COUNTIES.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO NEAR...THEN ABOVE
THE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS IN RESPONSE TO WESTERN STATES TROUGHING.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL RISE AS THE WEEK AND TROUGH PROGRESS.

THE LONG TERM PROGNOSIS WAS PRIMARILY BASED ON ADJUSTED WPC
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERAL VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT MOST PORTS DESPITE PASSAGE
OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TODAY. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT FKL AND DUJ
WHERE SOME EARLY LOCAL STRATUS AND MVFR STRATOCU ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THAT FEATURE. OTHERWISE...ONLY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL MAR
CONDITIONS.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS SHOWERS...AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATER THURSDAY...AND INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPHI 011033
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
633 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM HUDSONS BAY TODAY AND
SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
THROUGH OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING. A WEAKER COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MAY STALL OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC THROUGH MID-WEEK...AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG
IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WE ADDED SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS FIRST PART OF THIS MORNING
NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA NORTH OF THE CHANNELIZED VORT MAX.

GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER AT 500MB WHILE THE NAM/WRF WAS
BETTER AT 850 MB AND 925MB. GFS 1C TOO COLD AT SEVERAL SITES.
OVERALL A QUIET, BUT CHILLY START TO APRIL ACROSS OUR CWA. THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM IS WELL OFFSHORE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
MOVING EAST TODAY.

INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A CHANNELIZED VORT MAX IS YET TO CLEAR
OUR CWA. THERE IS SOME MAINLY MID LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH OF THIS
FEATURE IN THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL BE PASSING ACROSS OUR CWA (MORE
NORTH THAN SOUTH). ALSO SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING CONVECTIVE TEMPS
GETTING REACHED NORTH. THINK THE GFS TRAPPED MOISTURE LOOKS OVERDONE
GIVEN LACK OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALREADY AND COLD INITIALIZATION
OF 850 MB AND 925MB TEMPS. OVERALL EVEN NORTH THERE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT SUNSHINE AND IT WILL BE LESS OF A CLOUD ISSUE SOUTH. WITH
THE CHANNELIZED VORT MOVING OFFSHORE, SKIES SHOULD BECOME SUNNIER AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

STAT GUIDANCE LOOKS PRETTY MUCH SPOT ON FOR MAX TEMPS TO METHODS WE
NORMALLY FOLLOW. UP NORTH PREFER HIGHER NAM MOS BECAUSE OF THE
COLD INITIALIZATION BY THE GFS. IT MIGHT BE GIVING YESTERDAY`S
SNOW TOO MUCH CREDIT. NORTHWEST WINDS NOT THAT BRISK FOR APRIL,
LIKELY PEAK GUSTS FOR THE DAYTIME AROUND 20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
BECAUSE OF THE UNSEASONABLY COLD FEBRUARY AND MARCH WE ARE DELAYING
THE START OF FROST AND FREEZE PRODUCTS FOR THE DELMARVA UNTIL APRIL
11TH. EVEN LOCALLY, WE ARE WAY BEHIND. OUR NEIGHBOR`S BEAUTIFUL
WHITE MAGNOLIA TREES THAT NORMALLY BLOOM LIKE CLOCKWORK ON THE FIRST
DAY OF SPRING ARE NOT EVEN CLOSE, ESTIMATING WE ARE ABOUT TWO WEEKS
BEHIND SCHEDULE.

SPEAKING OF FROST WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING OVER OUR
CWA TONIGHT, EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
THE GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN TOWARD MORNING, BUT SUSPECT THE
RADIATIONAL INVERSION WILL PREVENT MIXING. AT THE NORTH END OF OUR
CWA SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD ARRIVE TOWARD MORNING. BECAUSE WE
ARE ON THE CONVERGENT SIDE OF THE JET AND STRONG RIDGING IS PREDICTED
OVERNIGHT, DO NOT BELIEVE THEY WILL HAVE MUCH OF A THERMAL IMPACT.
THUS MIN TEMPS IN OUTLYING AREAS ARE AT OR BELOW STAT GUIDANCE.
CLOSER TO STAT GUIDANCE IN URBAN AND COASTAL AREAS.

THE GFS BRINGS MEASURABLE PCPN EVER SO CLOSE TO NJ TOWARD MORNING,
OVER THE PAST MONTH IN THE 24 TO 36 HR FORECAST TIME FRAME, ITS
EQUITABLE THREAT SCORE IS LOWER AND ITS (WET) BIAS WITH THE .01 ISOHYET
IS HIGHER THAN THE SREF, NAM OR ECMWF IN OUR REGION. BTW AT 24 HOURS
THE ECMWF AND AT 36 HR THE NAM HAS HAD THE HIGHEST SCORE WITH THAT
ISOHYET. THAT BEING SAID, THE GFS KEEPS PREDICTED OMEGA, THETA
E RDGG AND MID LEVEL WAA NORTH OF OUR CWA, SO NO PCPN
CORROBORATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE CRESTING OVER THE NORTHEAST
CONUS FRI NIGHT...WITH THE FLOW BACKING SOUTHWEST...FOLLOWED BY
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG S/WV ON SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...COMPLEX
PATTERN SETS UP AS TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN US AND
DOWNSTREAM FLOW BECOMES WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE ERN CONUS. THE
00Z/01 MODEL SUITE DISAGREEMENT CENTERS AROUND MAGNITUDE OF S/WV
ENERGY ENTERING THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH AND UPPER MS VALLEY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE EC/UKMET SOLUTION FAVORS A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER
THE NORTHEAST CONUS WHICH LEADS TO A STATIONARY FRONT INVOF THE
MID ATLANTIC...WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION FAVORS MORE OF A MERIDIONAL
FLOW WHICH PLACES THIS FRONT FURTHER TO THE NORTH.

DAY TO DAY...EXPECTING TEMPS ABV AVERAGE ON THU AND FRI W/GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS LIKELY. A GENERALLY DRY DAY EXPECTED THU WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY FRI AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY SAT...
IT WILL TURN BLUSTERY AND PRECIP MAY TURN TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...DEPENDING ON THE THERMAL PROFILE. THIS BEARS WATCHING.
A BRIEF REPRIVE ON SUNDAY BEFORE A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ATTEMPTS
TO SETUP INVOF THE MID ATLANTIC IN THE MON THRU WED TIME FRAME.
THIS FAVORS AN OVERRUNNING REGIME...AND WITH THE ADDITION OF GULF
MOISTURE...HEAVY RAINFALL IS A POSSIBILITY DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

NO BIG CHANGES WITH THE 12Z TAFS.

THIS MORNING...VFR. SOME SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS. COULD BE A
CIG EARLY NORTH, BUT SHOULD AVERAGE SCATTERED OVERALL. LATER
A CUMULUS DECK OF CLOUDS SHOULD START FORMING. NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15 KTS. WE MIGHT HAVE SOME GUSTINESS, BUT
BELIEVE THEY SHOULD BE UNDER 20 KTS AND HAVE NOT CARRIED THEM AT
ANY TAF SITE.

THIS AFTERNOON...A VFR CU BASED CIG MIGHT FORM AT NORTHERN AND
PA AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. ELSEWHERE WE ARE EXPECTING THEM TO BE
SCATTERED OR LESS. WINDS SHOULD BACK EVER SO SLIGHTLY MORE TO
THE WEST WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS. NO CHANGE TO GUSTINESS THINKING.

TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS, NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. SOME CIRRUS
CLOUDS WILL PASS BY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA AND TSRA.

SATURDAY...MVFR IN SHRA EARLY...GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE CONTINUED FOR LOWER DELAWARE
BAY AND THE OCEAN INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING. COMBINATION
OF A RELAXING GRADIENT AND INCREASING AIR TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BRING US BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY THE END OF THE
MORNING.

THEN WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARING OUR AREA, SUB SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SCA CRITERIA
LATE ON THU AND CONTINUE THRU SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...SOUTHWEST
WINDS ON THU AND FRI ARE ANTICIPATED TO VEER NORTHWEST BY FRI
NIGHT... AND REMAIN AOB THE SCA THRESHOLD DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
THE SCA THRESHOLD ATTM.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/GIGI
MARINE...FRANCK/GIGI




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010957
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
557 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARM THURSDAY WITH
INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE PREDAWN UPDATE OTHER THAN TWEAKS TO
HOURLY TRENDS.

PREVIOUS...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PIT. OTHERWISE...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER TODAY WITH ANY REMAINING
CLOUDS DECREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON. NEAR AVERAGE HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED USING THE LATEST BIAS CORRECTED MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS WAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY WITH INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES. LIMITED INSTABILITY IS
PROGGED...BUT WITH A LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE AND SHOWALTER INDICIES
JUST BELOW ZERO...MAINTAINED THE CHANCE OF THUNDER. THE FRONT IS
PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AS A SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPS AND TRACKS ALONG IT...WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUING.
WITH THE RAIN PROGGED TO BE SPREAD OUT OVER A COUPLE OF DAYS...
SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH THE FRONT AND SURFACE WAVE EXITING. A BRIEF
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS THE PRECIP ENDS. ANY REMAINING
PRECIP CHANCES...MAINLY NE OF PIT...SHOULD DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON.

GENERALLY FOLLOWED A NAM/SREF/GFS BLEND FOR FORECAST DETAILS.
DISCOUNTED ECMWF/S STRONGER SURFACE WAVE WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG
DIGGING UPPER TROUGH. A BLEND OF SREF AND MOS DATA WAS USED FOR
THE TEMP FORECAST...RESULTING IN READINGS AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THURSDAY IN GUSTY SW WINDS...WITH A DECREASE TO BELOW
AVERAGE LEVELS AGAIN BY SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TRAILING SHORTWAVE IS STILL PROGGED TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS
ALONG A SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE
SITUATION...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE...SO SLIGHT...TO CHANCE POPS WERE CONFINED TO
NORTHERN COUNTIES.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO NEAR...THEN ABOVE
THE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS IN RESPONSE TO WESTERN STATES TROUGHING.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL RISE AS THE WEEK AND TROUGH PROGRESS.

THE LONG TERM PROGNOSIS WAS PRIMARILY BASED ON ADJUSTED WPC
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERAL VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT MOST PORTS DESPITE PASSAGE
OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TODAY. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT FKL AND DUJ
WHERE SOME EARLY LOCAL STRATUS AND MVFR STRATOCU ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THAT FEATURE. OTHERWISE...ONLY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL MAR
CONDITIONS.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS SHOWERS...AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATER THURSDAY...AND INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010957
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
557 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARM THURSDAY WITH
INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE PREDAWN UPDATE OTHER THAN TWEAKS TO
HOURLY TRENDS.

PREVIOUS...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PIT. OTHERWISE...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER TODAY WITH ANY REMAINING
CLOUDS DECREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON. NEAR AVERAGE HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED USING THE LATEST BIAS CORRECTED MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS WAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY WITH INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES. LIMITED INSTABILITY IS
PROGGED...BUT WITH A LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE AND SHOWALTER INDICIES
JUST BELOW ZERO...MAINTAINED THE CHANCE OF THUNDER. THE FRONT IS
PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AS A SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPS AND TRACKS ALONG IT...WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUING.
WITH THE RAIN PROGGED TO BE SPREAD OUT OVER A COUPLE OF DAYS...
SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH THE FRONT AND SURFACE WAVE EXITING. A BRIEF
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS THE PRECIP ENDS. ANY REMAINING
PRECIP CHANCES...MAINLY NE OF PIT...SHOULD DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON.

GENERALLY FOLLOWED A NAM/SREF/GFS BLEND FOR FORECAST DETAILS.
DISCOUNTED ECMWF/S STRONGER SURFACE WAVE WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG
DIGGING UPPER TROUGH. A BLEND OF SREF AND MOS DATA WAS USED FOR
THE TEMP FORECAST...RESULTING IN READINGS AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THURSDAY IN GUSTY SW WINDS...WITH A DECREASE TO BELOW
AVERAGE LEVELS AGAIN BY SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TRAILING SHORTWAVE IS STILL PROGGED TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS
ALONG A SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE
SITUATION...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE...SO SLIGHT...TO CHANCE POPS WERE CONFINED TO
NORTHERN COUNTIES.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO NEAR...THEN ABOVE
THE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS IN RESPONSE TO WESTERN STATES TROUGHING.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL RISE AS THE WEEK AND TROUGH PROGRESS.

THE LONG TERM PROGNOSIS WAS PRIMARILY BASED ON ADJUSTED WPC
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERAL VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT MOST PORTS DESPITE PASSAGE
OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TODAY. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT FKL AND DUJ
WHERE SOME EARLY LOCAL STRATUS AND MVFR STRATOCU ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THAT FEATURE. OTHERWISE...ONLY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL MAR
CONDITIONS.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS SHOWERS...AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATER THURSDAY...AND INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010901
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
501 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY...THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...AND CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CDFNT NOW WELL E AND S OF THE FA. COOLER/DRY AIR SPREADING INTO
THE RGN FM THE NNW. SFC HI PRES INVOF ERN LAKES/OH VLY WILL BE
SLOLY BUILDING INTO THE RGN TDA. NNE WNDS RMNG GUSTY THIS
MRNG...ESP INVOF ERN PORTION OF FA...THEN WANING THEREAFTER. SCT-
BKN SC INVOF CST ATTM AT LITTLE BIT LONGER...OTRW MNLY SKC TDA. HI
TEMPS IN THE L/M60S FOR INTERIOR SRN VA/NE NC AND IN THE L/M50S
CLOSER TO THE COAST AS WINDS TURN ONSHORE IN THE AFTN AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE TNGT/THU MRNG. LGT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS MNLY
IN THE L/M30S MOST INLAND PLACES TO ARND 40F AT THE IMMEDIATE
CST.

WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WX DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE WITHIN A
WARMING AIRMASS AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP BY THE AFTN. MOST
INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE L70S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE L/M60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

INCREASING CLOUDS THU NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE
COAST AND A MORE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. IN GENERAL...MODELS
RMN SLOWER AT BRINGING IN DEEP MOISTURE AND THE NRN STREAM AND
SRN STREAM ARE SLOWER TO PHASE. WILL CONT W/ HIGHEST POPS ON FRI
TO NNW 1/3RD OF FA BY LT TNGT THROUGH FRI. VERY MILD THU NIGHT IN
SSW FLOW AND INCRAESING CLOUDS...LOWS IN THE 50S TO POSSIBLY AS
WARM AS 60F IN A FEW SPOTS. WARM/VARIABLY CLOUDY FRI WITH 20-30%
CHC FOR -SHRA AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY TSTMS AS THE SFC FRONT
MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE M/U70S...POSSIBLY
CLOSE TO 80F IF ENOUGH SUN CAN PREVAIL (U60S/L70S ON THE ERN
SHORE). MAIN RAIN EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRI NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WET AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FRI NIGHT...THEN OFF THE CST SAT MRNG. STILL SOME MINOR
SPATIAL AND TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WRT ASSOCIATED SRN
STREAM ENERGY AND THE COLD FRONT...BUT MOSTLY NOW WITH HOW QUICK
PRECIP CLEARS THE COAST SAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FRI
NIGHT...EXCEPT THE SE. THETA-E ADVECTION AND MILD TEMPS WILL
RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY FRI EVENING. SOUNDINGS ALSO
INDICATE SHARPENING LAPSE RATES AS TEMPS ALOFT COOL. WILL
INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI EVENING. COLD FRONT EXITS THE
COAST SAT MRNG AS THE PARENT LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFT INTO
THE NE STATES/CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST SAT AFTN...REMAINING OVER THE REGION THRU SUN. THE RESULT
WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SAT-SUN GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S INLAND AND
MID-UPPER 50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER SERN
CANADA THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
OFFSHORE SUN AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES.
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF BEGINS TO SPREAD BACK NWD INTO THE MIDWEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE WLY FLOW CROSS THE
REGION. BEGIN TO REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE- LOW END CHANCE POPS
TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGHS MON IN THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AND UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 40S-LOW 50S. HIGHS TUES IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID-UPPER
60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LO PRES WILL MOVE FARTHER ENE INTO THE NRN ATLC THIS MORNG...WHILE
HI PRES BLDS INTO THE AREA FM THE NW. OTHER THAN SCT TO BKN SC
(2000-3000 FT) AT SBY EARLY THIS MORNG...EXPECT ONLY SCT CI AND
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THU MORNG. N WINDS 10 TO 15 KT AND GUSTY
EXPECTED THRU MIDDAY TODAY...THEN TURNING TO THE NE AND SE OR S
LATER TODAY INTO THU MORNG WHILE BECOMING LIGHT.

OUTLOOK...HI PRES MOVES OFF THE CST ON THU...AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH FM THE NW. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRI INTO
SAT MORNG...AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACRS THE REGION. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
HI PRES WILL BLD INTO THE AREA FM THE NW TODAY...THEN WILL SLIDE
OFF THE CST ON THU. STRONG N OR NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 30 KT WILL OCCUR THRU THIS MORNG. SEAS WILL BLD TO 3 TO 5
FT OVR THE CSTL WTRS...AND WAVES WILL BLD TO 3 TO 4 FT OVR THE
CHES BAY. THUS...SCA`S WILL REMAIN UP OVR THE WTRS UNTIL 10 AM OR
NOON. WINDS/SEAS WILL DIMINISH/SUBSIDE THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENG...AS THE HI BLDS RIGHT OVR THE WTRS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE LATER TNGT AND THU...WITH FLOW
RETURNING TO THE S AOB 15 KT. SLY WINDS INCREASE THU...AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THURS-THURS EVENING WITH SLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT.
SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS ALSO PROGGED TO REACH 5 FT. FLOW BECOMES SW
FRI...AS THE FRONT HANGS UP ALONG THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. FRONT
FINALLY CROSSES THE WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNG.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT RICHMOND FOR TUESDAY MARCH 31ST WILL BE
REVIEWED TODAY. A SPIKE IN THE TEMPERATURE TO 79 DEGREES OCCURRED
AROUND 827 PM DEGREES AS SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS MOVED ACROSS THE
AIRPORT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010850
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
450 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY...THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...AND CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CDFNT NOW WELL E AND S OF THE FA. COOLER/DRY AIR SPREADING INTO
THE RGN FM THE NNW. SFC HI PRES INVOF ERN LAKES/OH VLY WILL BE
SLOLY BUILDING INTO THE RGN TDA. NNE WNDS RMNG GUSTY THIS
MRNG...ESP INVOF ERN PORTION OF FA...THEN WANING THEREAFTER. SCT-
BKN SC INVOF CST ATTM AT LITTLE BIT LONGER...OTRW MNLY SKC TDA. HI
TEMPS IN THE L/M60S FOR INTERIOR SRN VA/NE NC AND IN THE L/M50S
CLOSER TO THE COAST AS WINDS TURN ONSHORE IN THE AFTN AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE TNGT/THU MRNG. LGT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS MNLY
IN THE L/M30S MOST INLAND PLACES TO ARND 40F AT THE IMMEDIATE
CST.

WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WX DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE WITHIN A
WARMING AIRMASS AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP BY THE AFTN. MOST
INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE L70S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE L/M60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

INCREASING CLOUDS THU NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE
COAST AND A MORE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. IN GENERAL...MODELS
RMN SLOWER AT BRINGING IN DEEP MOISTURE AND THE NRN STREAM AND
SRN STREAM ARE SLOWER TO PHASE. WILL CONT W/ HIGHEST POPS ON FRI
TO NNW 1/3RD OF FA BY LT TNGT THROUGH FRI. VERY MILD THU NIGHT IN
SSW FLOW AND INCRAESING CLOUDS...LOWS IN THE 50S TO POSSIBLY AS
WARM AS 60F IN A FEW SPOTS. WARM/VARIABLY CLOUDY FRI WITH 20-30%
CHC FOR -SHRA AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY TSTMS AS THE SFC FRONT
MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE M/U70S...POSSIBLY
CLOSE TO 80F IF ENOUGH SUN CAN PREVAIL (U60S/L70S ON THE ERN
SHORE). MAIN RAIN EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRI NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WET AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FRI NIGHT...THEN OFF THE CST SAT MRNG. STILL SOME MINOR
SPATIAL AND TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WRT ASSOCIATED SRN
STREAM ENERGY AND THE COLD FRONT...BUT MOSTLY NOW WITH HOW QUICK
PRECIP CLEARS THE COAST SAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FRI
NIGHT...EXCEPT THE SE. THETA-E ADVECTION AND MILD TEMPS WILL
RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY FRI EVENING. SOUNDINGS ALSO
INDICATE SHARPENING LAPSE RATES AS TEMPS ALOFT COOL. WILL
INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI EVENING. COLD FRONT EXITS THE
COAST SAT MRNG AS THE PARENT LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFT INTO
THE NE STATES/CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST SAT AFTN...REMAINING OVER THE REGION THRU SUN. THE RESULT
WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SAT-SUN GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S INLAND AND
MID-UPPER 50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER SERN
CANADA THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
OFFSHORE SUN AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES.
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF BEGINS TO SPREAD BACK NWD INTO THE MIDWEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE WLY FLOW CROSS THE
REGION. BEGIN TO REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE- LOW END CHANCE POPS
TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGHS MON IN THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AND UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 40S-LOW 50S. HIGHS TUES IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID-UPPER
60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LO PRES WILL MOVE FARTHER ENE INTO THE NRN ATLC THIS MORNG...WHILE
HI PRES BLDS INTO THE AREA FM THE NW. OTHER THAN SCT TO BKN SC
(2000-3000 FT) AT SBY EARLY THIS MORNG...EXPECT ONLY SCT CI AND
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THU MORNG. N WINDS 10 TO 15 KT AND GUSTY
EXPECTED THRU MIDDAY TODAY...THEN TURNING TO THE NE AND SE OR S
LATER TODAY INTO THU MORNG WHILE BECOMING LIGHT.

OUTLOOK...HI PRES MOVES OFF THE CST ON THU...AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH FM THE NW. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRI INTO
SAT MORNG...AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACRS THE REGION. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
HI PRES WILL BLD INTO THE AREA FM THE NW TODAY...THEN WILL SLIDE
OFF THE CST ON THU. STRONG N OR NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 30 KT WILL OCCUR THRU THIS MORNG. SEAS WILL BLD TO 3 TO 5
FT OVR THE CSTL WTRS...AND WAVES WILL BLD TO 3 TO 4 FT OVR THE
CHES BAY. THUS...SCA`S WILL REMAIN UP OVR THE WTRS UNTIL 10 AM OR
NOON. WINDS/SEAS WILL DIMINISH/SUBSIDE THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENG...AS THE HI BLDS RIGHT OVR THE WTRS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE LATER TNGT AND THU...WITH FLOW
RETURNING TO THE S AOB 15 KT. SLY WINDS INCREASE THU...AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THURS-THURS EVENING WITH SLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT.
SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS ALSO PROGGED TO REACH 5 FT. FLOW BECOMES SW
FRI...AS THE FRONT HANGS UP ALONG THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. FRONT
FINALLY CROSSES THE WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNG.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010801
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
401 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY...THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...AND CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CDFNT NOW WELL E AND S OF THE FA. COOLER/DRY AIR SPREADING INTO
THE RGN FM THE NNW. SFC HI PRES INVOF ERN LAKES/OH VLY WILL BE
SLOLY BUILDING INTO THE RGN TDA. NNE WNDS RMNG GUSTY THIS
MRNG...ESP INVOF ERN PORTION OF FA...THEN WANING THEREAFTER. SCT-
BKN SC INVOF CST ATTM AT LITTLE BIT LONGER...OTRW MNLY SKC TDA. HI
TEMPS IN THE L/M60S FOR INTERIOR SRN VA/NE NC AND IN THE L/M50S
CLOSER TO THE COAST AS WINDS TURN ONSHORE IN THE AFTN AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE TNGT/THU MRNG. LGT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS MNLY
IN THE L/M30S MOST INLAND PLACES TO ARND 40F AT THE IMMEDIATE
CST.

WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WX DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE WITHIN A
WARMING AIRMASS AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP BY THE AFTN. MOST
INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE L70S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE L/M60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

INCREASING CLOUDS THU NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE
COAST AND A MORE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. IN GENERAL...MODELS
RMN SLOWER AT BRINGING IN DEEP MOISTURE AND THE NRN STREAM AND
SRN STREAM ARE SLOWER TO PHASE. WILL CONT W/ HIGHEST POPS ON FRI
TO NNW 1/3RD OF FA BY LT TNGT THROUGH FRI. VERY MILD THU NIGHT IN
SSW FLOW AND INCRAESING CLOUDS...LOWS IN THE 50S TO POSSIBLY AS
WARM AS 60F IN A FEW SPOTS. WARM/VARIABLY CLOUDY FRI WITH 20-30%
CHC FOR -SHRA AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY TSTMS AS THE SFC FRONT
MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE M/U70S...POSSIBLY
CLOSE TO 80F IF ENOUGH SUN CAN PREVAIL (U60S/L70S ON THE ERN
SHORE). MAIN RAIN EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRI NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WET AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FRI NIGHT...THEN OFF THE CST SAT MRNG. STILL SOME MINOR
SPATIAL AND TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WRT ASSOCIATED SRN
STREAM ENERGY AND THE COLD FRONT...BUT MOSTLY NOW WITH HOW QUICK
PRECIP CLEARS THE COAST SAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FRI
NIGHT...EXCEPT THE SE. THETA-E ADVECTION AND MILD TEMPS WILL
RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY FRI EVENING. SOUNDINGS ALSO
INDICATE SHARPENING LAPSE RATES AS TEMPS ALOFT COOL. WILL
INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI EVENING. COLD FRONT EXITS THE
COAST SAT MRNG AS THE PARENT LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFT INTO
THE NE STATES/CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST SAT AFTN...REMAINING OVER THE REGION THRU SUN. THE RESULT
WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SAT-SUN GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S INLAND AND
MID-UPPER 50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER SERN
CANADA THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
OFFSHORE SUN AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES.
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF BEGINS TO SPREAD BACK NWD INTO THE MIDWEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE WLY FLOW CROSS THE
REGION. BEGIN TO REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE- LOW END CHANCE POPS
TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGHS MON IN THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AND UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 40S-LOW 50S. HIGHS TUES IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID-UPPER
60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LO PRES WILL MOVE FARTHER ENE INTO THE NRN ATLC THIS MORNG...WHILE
HI PRES BLDS INTO THE AREA FM THE NW. OTHER THAN SCT TO BKN SC
(2000-3000 FT) AT SBY EARLY THIS MORNG...EXPECT ONLY SCT CI AND
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THU MORNG. N WINDS 10 TO 15 KT AND GUSTY
EXPECTED THRU MIDDAY TODAY...THEN TURNING TO THE NE AND SE OR S
LATER TODAY INTO THU MORNG WHILE BECOMING LIGHT.

OUTLOOK...HI PRES MOVES OFF THE CST ON THU...AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH FM THE NW. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRI INTO
SAT MORNG...AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACRS THE REGION. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OVER NRN VA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE OH VALLEY. STRONG GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION BTWN LOW PRESSURE AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE FL COAST HAS
RESULTED IN STRONG SW WINDS OVER THE WATER THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS
GENERALLY 15-25 KT. FEW GUSTS OF 30 KT OBSERVED ON ELEVATED SITES
CLOSET TO LAND...WHERE 30 KT GUSTS ALSO OBSERVED. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3
FT AND WAVES 1-3 FT. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT NRN WATERS THIS EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPING ACROSS THE WATER AROUND MIDNIGHT. BRIEF LULL IN SCA SPEEDS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...BUT A NW CAA SURGE
EXPECTED POST FRONTAL. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-5 FT ALL COASTAL ZONES
WITH WAVES 3-4 FT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WEDS MORNING. SE SWELL
MAY KEEP SEAS HOVERING AROUND 5 FT 20 NM OUT THRU WEDS MORNING...BUT
SUBSIDING WEDS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT
WITH FLOW RETURNING TO THE S AOB 15 KT. SLY WINDS INCREASE THURS AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THURS-THURS EVENING WITH SLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT.
SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS ALSO PROGGED TO REACH 5 FT. FLOW BECOMES SW
FRI AS THE FRONT HANGS UP ALONG THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. FRONT
FINALLY CROSSES THE WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT. BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WATER THRU THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...SAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010801
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
401 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY...THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...AND CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CDFNT NOW WELL E AND S OF THE FA. COOLER/DRY AIR SPREADING INTO
THE RGN FM THE NNW. SFC HI PRES INVOF ERN LAKES/OH VLY WILL BE
SLOLY BUILDING INTO THE RGN TDA. NNE WNDS RMNG GUSTY THIS
MRNG...ESP INVOF ERN PORTION OF FA...THEN WANING THEREAFTER. SCT-
BKN SC INVOF CST ATTM AT LITTLE BIT LONGER...OTRW MNLY SKC TDA. HI
TEMPS IN THE L/M60S FOR INTERIOR SRN VA/NE NC AND IN THE L/M50S
CLOSER TO THE COAST AS WINDS TURN ONSHORE IN THE AFTN AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE TNGT/THU MRNG. LGT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS MNLY
IN THE L/M30S MOST INLAND PLACES TO ARND 40F AT THE IMMEDIATE
CST.

WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WX DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE WITHIN A
WARMING AIRMASS AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP BY THE AFTN. MOST
INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE L70S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE L/M60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

INCREASING CLOUDS THU NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE
COAST AND A MORE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. IN GENERAL...MODELS
RMN SLOWER AT BRINGING IN DEEP MOISTURE AND THE NRN STREAM AND
SRN STREAM ARE SLOWER TO PHASE. WILL CONT W/ HIGHEST POPS ON FRI
TO NNW 1/3RD OF FA BY LT TNGT THROUGH FRI. VERY MILD THU NIGHT IN
SSW FLOW AND INCRAESING CLOUDS...LOWS IN THE 50S TO POSSIBLY AS
WARM AS 60F IN A FEW SPOTS. WARM/VARIABLY CLOUDY FRI WITH 20-30%
CHC FOR -SHRA AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY TSTMS AS THE SFC FRONT
MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE M/U70S...POSSIBLY
CLOSE TO 80F IF ENOUGH SUN CAN PREVAIL (U60S/L70S ON THE ERN
SHORE). MAIN RAIN EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRI NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WET AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FRI NIGHT...THEN OFF THE CST SAT MRNG. STILL SOME MINOR
SPATIAL AND TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WRT ASSOCIATED SRN
STREAM ENERGY AND THE COLD FRONT...BUT MOSTLY NOW WITH HOW QUICK
PRECIP CLEARS THE COAST SAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FRI
NIGHT...EXCEPT THE SE. THETA-E ADVECTION AND MILD TEMPS WILL
RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY FRI EVENING. SOUNDINGS ALSO
INDICATE SHARPENING LAPSE RATES AS TEMPS ALOFT COOL. WILL
INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI EVENING. COLD FRONT EXITS THE
COAST SAT MRNG AS THE PARENT LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFT INTO
THE NE STATES/CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST SAT AFTN...REMAINING OVER THE REGION THRU SUN. THE RESULT
WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SAT-SUN GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S INLAND AND
MID-UPPER 50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER SERN
CANADA THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
OFFSHORE SUN AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES.
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF BEGINS TO SPREAD BACK NWD INTO THE MIDWEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE WLY FLOW CROSS THE
REGION. BEGIN TO REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE- LOW END CHANCE POPS
TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGHS MON IN THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AND UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 40S-LOW 50S. HIGHS TUES IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID-UPPER
60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LO PRES WILL MOVE FARTHER ENE INTO THE NRN ATLC THIS MORNG...WHILE
HI PRES BLDS INTO THE AREA FM THE NW. OTHER THAN SCT TO BKN SC
(2000-3000 FT) AT SBY EARLY THIS MORNG...EXPECT ONLY SCT CI AND
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THU MORNG. N WINDS 10 TO 15 KT AND GUSTY
EXPECTED THRU MIDDAY TODAY...THEN TURNING TO THE NE AND SE OR S
LATER TODAY INTO THU MORNG WHILE BECOMING LIGHT.

OUTLOOK...HI PRES MOVES OFF THE CST ON THU...AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH FM THE NW. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRI INTO
SAT MORNG...AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACRS THE REGION. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OVER NRN VA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE OH VALLEY. STRONG GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION BTWN LOW PRESSURE AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE FL COAST HAS
RESULTED IN STRONG SW WINDS OVER THE WATER THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS
GENERALLY 15-25 KT. FEW GUSTS OF 30 KT OBSERVED ON ELEVATED SITES
CLOSET TO LAND...WHERE 30 KT GUSTS ALSO OBSERVED. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3
FT AND WAVES 1-3 FT. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT NRN WATERS THIS EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPING ACROSS THE WATER AROUND MIDNIGHT. BRIEF LULL IN SCA SPEEDS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...BUT A NW CAA SURGE
EXPECTED POST FRONTAL. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-5 FT ALL COASTAL ZONES
WITH WAVES 3-4 FT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WEDS MORNING. SE SWELL
MAY KEEP SEAS HOVERING AROUND 5 FT 20 NM OUT THRU WEDS MORNING...BUT
SUBSIDING WEDS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT
WITH FLOW RETURNING TO THE S AOB 15 KT. SLY WINDS INCREASE THURS AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THURS-THURS EVENING WITH SLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT.
SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS ALSO PROGGED TO REACH 5 FT. FLOW BECOMES SW
FRI AS THE FRONT HANGS UP ALONG THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. FRONT
FINALLY CROSSES THE WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT. BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WATER THRU THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...SAM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010801
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
401 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY...THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...AND CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CDFNT NOW WELL E AND S OF THE FA. COOLER/DRY AIR SPREADING INTO
THE RGN FM THE NNW. SFC HI PRES INVOF ERN LAKES/OH VLY WILL BE
SLOLY BUILDING INTO THE RGN TDA. NNE WNDS RMNG GUSTY THIS
MRNG...ESP INVOF ERN PORTION OF FA...THEN WANING THEREAFTER. SCT-
BKN SC INVOF CST ATTM AT LITTLE BIT LONGER...OTRW MNLY SKC TDA. HI
TEMPS IN THE L/M60S FOR INTERIOR SRN VA/NE NC AND IN THE L/M50S
CLOSER TO THE COAST AS WINDS TURN ONSHORE IN THE AFTN AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE TNGT/THU MRNG. LGT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS MNLY
IN THE L/M30S MOST INLAND PLACES TO ARND 40F AT THE IMMEDIATE
CST.

WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WX DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE WITHIN A
WARMING AIRMASS AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP BY THE AFTN. MOST
INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE L70S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE L/M60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

INCREASING CLOUDS THU NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE
COAST AND A MORE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. IN GENERAL...MODELS
RMN SLOWER AT BRINGING IN DEEP MOISTURE AND THE NRN STREAM AND
SRN STREAM ARE SLOWER TO PHASE. WILL CONT W/ HIGHEST POPS ON FRI
TO NNW 1/3RD OF FA BY LT TNGT THROUGH FRI. VERY MILD THU NIGHT IN
SSW FLOW AND INCRAESING CLOUDS...LOWS IN THE 50S TO POSSIBLY AS
WARM AS 60F IN A FEW SPOTS. WARM/VARIABLY CLOUDY FRI WITH 20-30%
CHC FOR -SHRA AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY TSTMS AS THE SFC FRONT
MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE M/U70S...POSSIBLY
CLOSE TO 80F IF ENOUGH SUN CAN PREVAIL (U60S/L70S ON THE ERN
SHORE). MAIN RAIN EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRI NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WET AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FRI NIGHT...THEN OFF THE CST SAT MRNG. STILL SOME MINOR
SPATIAL AND TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WRT ASSOCIATED SRN
STREAM ENERGY AND THE COLD FRONT...BUT MOSTLY NOW WITH HOW QUICK
PRECIP CLEARS THE COAST SAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FRI
NIGHT...EXCEPT THE SE. THETA-E ADVECTION AND MILD TEMPS WILL
RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY FRI EVENING. SOUNDINGS ALSO
INDICATE SHARPENING LAPSE RATES AS TEMPS ALOFT COOL. WILL
INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI EVENING. COLD FRONT EXITS THE
COAST SAT MRNG AS THE PARENT LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFT INTO
THE NE STATES/CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST SAT AFTN...REMAINING OVER THE REGION THRU SUN. THE RESULT
WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SAT-SUN GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S INLAND AND
MID-UPPER 50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER SERN
CANADA THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
OFFSHORE SUN AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES.
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF BEGINS TO SPREAD BACK NWD INTO THE MIDWEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE WLY FLOW CROSS THE
REGION. BEGIN TO REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE- LOW END CHANCE POPS
TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGHS MON IN THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AND UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 40S-LOW 50S. HIGHS TUES IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID-UPPER
60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LO PRES WILL MOVE FARTHER ENE INTO THE NRN ATLC THIS MORNG...WHILE
HI PRES BLDS INTO THE AREA FM THE NW. OTHER THAN SCT TO BKN SC
(2000-3000 FT) AT SBY EARLY THIS MORNG...EXPECT ONLY SCT CI AND
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THU MORNG. N WINDS 10 TO 15 KT AND GUSTY
EXPECTED THRU MIDDAY TODAY...THEN TURNING TO THE NE AND SE OR S
LATER TODAY INTO THU MORNG WHILE BECOMING LIGHT.

OUTLOOK...HI PRES MOVES OFF THE CST ON THU...AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH FM THE NW. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRI INTO
SAT MORNG...AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACRS THE REGION. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OVER NRN VA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE OH VALLEY. STRONG GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION BTWN LOW PRESSURE AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE FL COAST HAS
RESULTED IN STRONG SW WINDS OVER THE WATER THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS
GENERALLY 15-25 KT. FEW GUSTS OF 30 KT OBSERVED ON ELEVATED SITES
CLOSET TO LAND...WHERE 30 KT GUSTS ALSO OBSERVED. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3
FT AND WAVES 1-3 FT. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT NRN WATERS THIS EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPING ACROSS THE WATER AROUND MIDNIGHT. BRIEF LULL IN SCA SPEEDS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...BUT A NW CAA SURGE
EXPECTED POST FRONTAL. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-5 FT ALL COASTAL ZONES
WITH WAVES 3-4 FT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WEDS MORNING. SE SWELL
MAY KEEP SEAS HOVERING AROUND 5 FT 20 NM OUT THRU WEDS MORNING...BUT
SUBSIDING WEDS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT
WITH FLOW RETURNING TO THE S AOB 15 KT. SLY WINDS INCREASE THURS AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THURS-THURS EVENING WITH SLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT.
SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS ALSO PROGGED TO REACH 5 FT. FLOW BECOMES SW
FRI AS THE FRONT HANGS UP ALONG THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. FRONT
FINALLY CROSSES THE WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT. BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WATER THRU THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...SAM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010801
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
401 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY...THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...AND CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CDFNT NOW WELL E AND S OF THE FA. COOLER/DRY AIR SPREADING INTO
THE RGN FM THE NNW. SFC HI PRES INVOF ERN LAKES/OH VLY WILL BE
SLOLY BUILDING INTO THE RGN TDA. NNE WNDS RMNG GUSTY THIS
MRNG...ESP INVOF ERN PORTION OF FA...THEN WANING THEREAFTER. SCT-
BKN SC INVOF CST ATTM AT LITTLE BIT LONGER...OTRW MNLY SKC TDA. HI
TEMPS IN THE L/M60S FOR INTERIOR SRN VA/NE NC AND IN THE L/M50S
CLOSER TO THE COAST AS WINDS TURN ONSHORE IN THE AFTN AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE TNGT/THU MRNG. LGT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS MNLY
IN THE L/M30S MOST INLAND PLACES TO ARND 40F AT THE IMMEDIATE
CST.

WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WX DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE WITHIN A
WARMING AIRMASS AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP BY THE AFTN. MOST
INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE L70S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE L/M60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

INCREASING CLOUDS THU NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE
COAST AND A MORE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. IN GENERAL...MODELS
RMN SLOWER AT BRINGING IN DEEP MOISTURE AND THE NRN STREAM AND
SRN STREAM ARE SLOWER TO PHASE. WILL CONT W/ HIGHEST POPS ON FRI
TO NNW 1/3RD OF FA BY LT TNGT THROUGH FRI. VERY MILD THU NIGHT IN
SSW FLOW AND INCRAESING CLOUDS...LOWS IN THE 50S TO POSSIBLY AS
WARM AS 60F IN A FEW SPOTS. WARM/VARIABLY CLOUDY FRI WITH 20-30%
CHC FOR -SHRA AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY TSTMS AS THE SFC FRONT
MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE M/U70S...POSSIBLY
CLOSE TO 80F IF ENOUGH SUN CAN PREVAIL (U60S/L70S ON THE ERN
SHORE). MAIN RAIN EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRI NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WET AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FRI NIGHT...THEN OFF THE CST SAT MRNG. STILL SOME MINOR
SPATIAL AND TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WRT ASSOCIATED SRN
STREAM ENERGY AND THE COLD FRONT...BUT MOSTLY NOW WITH HOW QUICK
PRECIP CLEARS THE COAST SAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FRI
NIGHT...EXCEPT THE SE. THETA-E ADVECTION AND MILD TEMPS WILL
RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY FRI EVENING. SOUNDINGS ALSO
INDICATE SHARPENING LAPSE RATES AS TEMPS ALOFT COOL. WILL
INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI EVENING. COLD FRONT EXITS THE
COAST SAT MRNG AS THE PARENT LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFT INTO
THE NE STATES/CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST SAT AFTN...REMAINING OVER THE REGION THRU SUN. THE RESULT
WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SAT-SUN GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S INLAND AND
MID-UPPER 50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER SERN
CANADA THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
OFFSHORE SUN AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES.
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF BEGINS TO SPREAD BACK NWD INTO THE MIDWEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE WLY FLOW CROSS THE
REGION. BEGIN TO REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE- LOW END CHANCE POPS
TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGHS MON IN THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AND UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 40S-LOW 50S. HIGHS TUES IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID-UPPER
60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LO PRES WILL MOVE FARTHER ENE INTO THE NRN ATLC THIS MORNG...WHILE
HI PRES BLDS INTO THE AREA FM THE NW. OTHER THAN SCT TO BKN SC
(2000-3000 FT) AT SBY EARLY THIS MORNG...EXPECT ONLY SCT CI AND
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THU MORNG. N WINDS 10 TO 15 KT AND GUSTY
EXPECTED THRU MIDDAY TODAY...THEN TURNING TO THE NE AND SE OR S
LATER TODAY INTO THU MORNG WHILE BECOMING LIGHT.

OUTLOOK...HI PRES MOVES OFF THE CST ON THU...AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH FM THE NW. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRI INTO
SAT MORNG...AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACRS THE REGION. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OVER NRN VA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE OH VALLEY. STRONG GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION BTWN LOW PRESSURE AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE FL COAST HAS
RESULTED IN STRONG SW WINDS OVER THE WATER THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS
GENERALLY 15-25 KT. FEW GUSTS OF 30 KT OBSERVED ON ELEVATED SITES
CLOSET TO LAND...WHERE 30 KT GUSTS ALSO OBSERVED. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3
FT AND WAVES 1-3 FT. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT NRN WATERS THIS EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPING ACROSS THE WATER AROUND MIDNIGHT. BRIEF LULL IN SCA SPEEDS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...BUT A NW CAA SURGE
EXPECTED POST FRONTAL. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-5 FT ALL COASTAL ZONES
WITH WAVES 3-4 FT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WEDS MORNING. SE SWELL
MAY KEEP SEAS HOVERING AROUND 5 FT 20 NM OUT THRU WEDS MORNING...BUT
SUBSIDING WEDS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT
WITH FLOW RETURNING TO THE S AOB 15 KT. SLY WINDS INCREASE THURS AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THURS-THURS EVENING WITH SLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT.
SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS ALSO PROGGED TO REACH 5 FT. FLOW BECOMES SW
FRI AS THE FRONT HANGS UP ALONG THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. FRONT
FINALLY CROSSES THE WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT. BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WATER THRU THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...SAM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010801
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
401 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY...THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...AND CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CDFNT NOW WELL E AND S OF THE FA. COOLER/DRY AIR SPREADING INTO
THE RGN FM THE NNW. SFC HI PRES INVOF ERN LAKES/OH VLY WILL BE
SLOLY BUILDING INTO THE RGN TDA. NNE WNDS RMNG GUSTY THIS
MRNG...ESP INVOF ERN PORTION OF FA...THEN WANING THEREAFTER. SCT-
BKN SC INVOF CST ATTM AT LITTLE BIT LONGER...OTRW MNLY SKC TDA. HI
TEMPS IN THE L/M60S FOR INTERIOR SRN VA/NE NC AND IN THE L/M50S
CLOSER TO THE COAST AS WINDS TURN ONSHORE IN THE AFTN AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE TNGT/THU MRNG. LGT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS MNLY
IN THE L/M30S MOST INLAND PLACES TO ARND 40F AT THE IMMEDIATE
CST.

WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WX DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE WITHIN A
WARMING AIRMASS AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP BY THE AFTN. MOST
INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE L70S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE L/M60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

INCREASING CLOUDS THU NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE
COAST AND A MORE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. IN GENERAL...MODELS
RMN SLOWER AT BRINGING IN DEEP MOISTURE AND THE NRN STREAM AND
SRN STREAM ARE SLOWER TO PHASE. WILL CONT W/ HIGHEST POPS ON FRI
TO NNW 1/3RD OF FA BY LT TNGT THROUGH FRI. VERY MILD THU NIGHT IN
SSW FLOW AND INCRAESING CLOUDS...LOWS IN THE 50S TO POSSIBLY AS
WARM AS 60F IN A FEW SPOTS. WARM/VARIABLY CLOUDY FRI WITH 20-30%
CHC FOR -SHRA AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY TSTMS AS THE SFC FRONT
MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE M/U70S...POSSIBLY
CLOSE TO 80F IF ENOUGH SUN CAN PREVAIL (U60S/L70S ON THE ERN
SHORE). MAIN RAIN EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRI NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WET AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FRI NIGHT...THEN OFF THE CST SAT MRNG. STILL SOME MINOR
SPATIAL AND TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WRT ASSOCIATED SRN
STREAM ENERGY AND THE COLD FRONT...BUT MOSTLY NOW WITH HOW QUICK
PRECIP CLEARS THE COAST SAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FRI
NIGHT...EXCEPT THE SE. THETA-E ADVECTION AND MILD TEMPS WILL
RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY FRI EVENING. SOUNDINGS ALSO
INDICATE SHARPENING LAPSE RATES AS TEMPS ALOFT COOL. WILL
INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI EVENING. COLD FRONT EXITS THE
COAST SAT MRNG AS THE PARENT LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFT INTO
THE NE STATES/CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST SAT AFTN...REMAINING OVER THE REGION THRU SUN. THE RESULT
WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SAT-SUN GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S INLAND AND
MID-UPPER 50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER SERN
CANADA THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
OFFSHORE SUN AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES.
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF BEGINS TO SPREAD BACK NWD INTO THE MIDWEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE WLY FLOW CROSS THE
REGION. BEGIN TO REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE- LOW END CHANCE POPS
TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGHS MON IN THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AND UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 40S-LOW 50S. HIGHS TUES IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID-UPPER
60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LO PRES WILL MOVE FARTHER ENE INTO THE NRN ATLC THIS MORNG...WHILE
HI PRES BLDS INTO THE AREA FM THE NW. OTHER THAN SCT TO BKN SC
(2000-3000 FT) AT SBY EARLY THIS MORNG...EXPECT ONLY SCT CI AND
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THU MORNG. N WINDS 10 TO 15 KT AND GUSTY
EXPECTED THRU MIDDAY TODAY...THEN TURNING TO THE NE AND SE OR S
LATER TODAY INTO THU MORNG WHILE BECOMING LIGHT.

OUTLOOK...HI PRES MOVES OFF THE CST ON THU...AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH FM THE NW. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRI INTO
SAT MORNG...AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACRS THE REGION. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OVER NRN VA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE OH VALLEY. STRONG GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION BTWN LOW PRESSURE AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE FL COAST HAS
RESULTED IN STRONG SW WINDS OVER THE WATER THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS
GENERALLY 15-25 KT. FEW GUSTS OF 30 KT OBSERVED ON ELEVATED SITES
CLOSET TO LAND...WHERE 30 KT GUSTS ALSO OBSERVED. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3
FT AND WAVES 1-3 FT. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT NRN WATERS THIS EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPING ACROSS THE WATER AROUND MIDNIGHT. BRIEF LULL IN SCA SPEEDS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...BUT A NW CAA SURGE
EXPECTED POST FRONTAL. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-5 FT ALL COASTAL ZONES
WITH WAVES 3-4 FT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WEDS MORNING. SE SWELL
MAY KEEP SEAS HOVERING AROUND 5 FT 20 NM OUT THRU WEDS MORNING...BUT
SUBSIDING WEDS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT
WITH FLOW RETURNING TO THE S AOB 15 KT. SLY WINDS INCREASE THURS AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THURS-THURS EVENING WITH SLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT.
SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS ALSO PROGGED TO REACH 5 FT. FLOW BECOMES SW
FRI AS THE FRONT HANGS UP ALONG THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. FRONT
FINALLY CROSSES THE WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT. BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WATER THRU THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...SAM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010801
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
401 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY...THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...AND CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CDFNT NOW WELL E AND S OF THE FA. COOLER/DRY AIR SPREADING INTO
THE RGN FM THE NNW. SFC HI PRES INVOF ERN LAKES/OH VLY WILL BE
SLOLY BUILDING INTO THE RGN TDA. NNE WNDS RMNG GUSTY THIS
MRNG...ESP INVOF ERN PORTION OF FA...THEN WANING THEREAFTER. SCT-
BKN SC INVOF CST ATTM AT LITTLE BIT LONGER...OTRW MNLY SKC TDA. HI
TEMPS IN THE L/M60S FOR INTERIOR SRN VA/NE NC AND IN THE L/M50S
CLOSER TO THE COAST AS WINDS TURN ONSHORE IN THE AFTN AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE TNGT/THU MRNG. LGT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS MNLY
IN THE L/M30S MOST INLAND PLACES TO ARND 40F AT THE IMMEDIATE
CST.

WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WX DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE WITHIN A
WARMING AIRMASS AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP BY THE AFTN. MOST
INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE L70S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE L/M60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

INCREASING CLOUDS THU NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE
COAST AND A MORE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. IN GENERAL...MODELS
RMN SLOWER AT BRINGING IN DEEP MOISTURE AND THE NRN STREAM AND
SRN STREAM ARE SLOWER TO PHASE. WILL CONT W/ HIGHEST POPS ON FRI
TO NNW 1/3RD OF FA BY LT TNGT THROUGH FRI. VERY MILD THU NIGHT IN
SSW FLOW AND INCRAESING CLOUDS...LOWS IN THE 50S TO POSSIBLY AS
WARM AS 60F IN A FEW SPOTS. WARM/VARIABLY CLOUDY FRI WITH 20-30%
CHC FOR -SHRA AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY TSTMS AS THE SFC FRONT
MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE M/U70S...POSSIBLY
CLOSE TO 80F IF ENOUGH SUN CAN PREVAIL (U60S/L70S ON THE ERN
SHORE). MAIN RAIN EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRI NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WET AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FRI NIGHT...THEN OFF THE CST SAT MRNG. STILL SOME MINOR
SPATIAL AND TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WRT ASSOCIATED SRN
STREAM ENERGY AND THE COLD FRONT...BUT MOSTLY NOW WITH HOW QUICK
PRECIP CLEARS THE COAST SAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FRI
NIGHT...EXCEPT THE SE. THETA-E ADVECTION AND MILD TEMPS WILL
RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY FRI EVENING. SOUNDINGS ALSO
INDICATE SHARPENING LAPSE RATES AS TEMPS ALOFT COOL. WILL
INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI EVENING. COLD FRONT EXITS THE
COAST SAT MRNG AS THE PARENT LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFT INTO
THE NE STATES/CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST SAT AFTN...REMAINING OVER THE REGION THRU SUN. THE RESULT
WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SAT-SUN GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S INLAND AND
MID-UPPER 50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER SERN
CANADA THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
OFFSHORE SUN AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES.
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF BEGINS TO SPREAD BACK NWD INTO THE MIDWEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE WLY FLOW CROSS THE
REGION. BEGIN TO REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE- LOW END CHANCE POPS
TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGHS MON IN THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AND UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 40S-LOW 50S. HIGHS TUES IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID-UPPER
60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LO PRES WILL MOVE FARTHER ENE INTO THE NRN ATLC THIS MORNG...WHILE
HI PRES BLDS INTO THE AREA FM THE NW. OTHER THAN SCT TO BKN SC
(2000-3000 FT) AT SBY EARLY THIS MORNG...EXPECT ONLY SCT CI AND
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THU MORNG. N WINDS 10 TO 15 KT AND GUSTY
EXPECTED THRU MIDDAY TODAY...THEN TURNING TO THE NE AND SE OR S
LATER TODAY INTO THU MORNG WHILE BECOMING LIGHT.

OUTLOOK...HI PRES MOVES OFF THE CST ON THU...AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH FM THE NW. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRI INTO
SAT MORNG...AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACRS THE REGION. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OVER NRN VA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE OH VALLEY. STRONG GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION BTWN LOW PRESSURE AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE FL COAST HAS
RESULTED IN STRONG SW WINDS OVER THE WATER THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS
GENERALLY 15-25 KT. FEW GUSTS OF 30 KT OBSERVED ON ELEVATED SITES
CLOSET TO LAND...WHERE 30 KT GUSTS ALSO OBSERVED. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3
FT AND WAVES 1-3 FT. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT NRN WATERS THIS EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPING ACROSS THE WATER AROUND MIDNIGHT. BRIEF LULL IN SCA SPEEDS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...BUT A NW CAA SURGE
EXPECTED POST FRONTAL. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-5 FT ALL COASTAL ZONES
WITH WAVES 3-4 FT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WEDS MORNING. SE SWELL
MAY KEEP SEAS HOVERING AROUND 5 FT 20 NM OUT THRU WEDS MORNING...BUT
SUBSIDING WEDS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT
WITH FLOW RETURNING TO THE S AOB 15 KT. SLY WINDS INCREASE THURS AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THURS-THURS EVENING WITH SLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT.
SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS ALSO PROGGED TO REACH 5 FT. FLOW BECOMES SW
FRI AS THE FRONT HANGS UP ALONG THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. FRONT
FINALLY CROSSES THE WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT. BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WATER THRU THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...SAM



000
FXUS61 KPHI 010759
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
359 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM HUDSONS BAY TODAY AND
SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
THROUGH OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING. A WEAKER COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MAY STALL OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC THROUGH MID-WEEK...AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG
IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER AT 500MB WHILE THE NAM/WRF WAS
BETTER AT 850 MB AND 925MB. GFS 1C TOO COLD AT SEVERAL SITES.
OVERALL A QUIET, BUT CHILLY START TO APRIL ACROSS OUR CWA. THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM IS WELL OFFSHORE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
MOVING EAST TODAY.

INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A CHANNELIZED VORT MAX IS YET TO CLEAR
OUR CWA. THERE IS SOME MAINLY MID LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH OF THIS
FEATURE IN THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL BE PASSING ACROSS OUR CWA (MORE
NORTH THAN SOUTH). ALSO SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING CONVECTIVE TEMPS
GETTING REACHED NORTH. THINK THE GFS TRAPPED MOISTURE LOOKS OVERDONE
GIVEN LACK OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALREADY AND COLD INITIALIZATION
OF 850 MB AND 925MB TEMPS. OVERALL EVEN NORTH THERE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT SUNSHINE AND IT WILL BE LESS OF A CLOUD ISSUE SOUTH. WITH
THE CHANNELIZED VORT MOVING OFFSHORE, SKIES SHOULD BECOME SUNNIER AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

STAT GUIDANCE LOOKS PRETTY MUCH SPOT ON FOR MAX TEMPS TO METHODS WE
NORMALLY FOLLOW. UP NORTH PREFER HIGHER NAM MOS BECAUSE OF THE
COLD INITIALIZATION BY THE GFS. IT MIGHT BE GIVING YESTERDAY`S
SNOW TOO MUCH CREDIT. NORTHWEST WINDS NOT THAT BRISK FOR APRIL,
LIKELY PEAK GUSTS FOR THE DAYTIME AROUND 20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
BECAUSE OF THE UNSEASONABLY COLD FEBRUARY AND MARCH WE ARE DELAYING
THE START OF FROST AND FREEZE PRODUCTS FOR THE DELMARVA UNTIL APRIL
11TH. EVEN LOCALLY, WE ARE WAY BEHIND. OUR NEIGHBOR`S BEAUTIFUL
WHITE MAGNOLIA TREES THAT NORMALLY BLOOM LIKE CLOCKWORK ON THE FIRST
DAY OF SPRING ARE NOT EVEN CLOSE, ESTIMATING WE ARE ABOUT TWO WEEKS
BEHIND SCHEDULE.

SPEAKING OF FROST WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING OVER OUR
CWA TONIGHT, EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
THE GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN TOWARD MORNING, BUT SUSPECT THE
RADIATIONAL INVERSION WILL PREVENT MIXING. AT THE NORTH END OF OUR
CWA SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD ARRIVE TOWARD MORNING. BECAUSE WE
ARE ON THE CONVERGENT SIDE OF THE JET AND STRONG RIDGING IS PREDICTED
OVERNIGHT, DO NOT BELIEVE THEY WILL HAVE MUCH OF A THERMAL IMPACT.
THUS MIN TEMPS IN OUTLYING AREAS ARE AT OR BELOW STAT GUIDANCE.
CLOSER TO STAT GUIDANCE IN URBAN AND COASTAL AREAS.

THE GFS BRINGS MEASURABLE PCPN EVER SO CLOSE TO NJ TOWARD MORNING,
OVER THE PAST MONTH IN THE 24 TO 36 HR FORECAST TIME FRAME, ITS
EQUITABLE THREAT SCORE IS LOWER AND ITS (WET) BIAS WITH THE .01 ISOHYET
IS HIGHER THAN THE SREF, NAM OR ECMWF IN OUR REGION. BTW AT 24 HOURS
THE ECMWF AND AT 36 HR THE NAM HAS HAD THE HIGHEST SCORE WITH THAT
ISOHYET. THAT BEING SAID, THE GFS KEEPS PREDICTED OMEGA, THETA
E RDGG AND MID LEVEL WAA NORTH OF OUR CWA, SO NO PCPN
CORROBORATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE CRESTING OVER THE NORTHEAST
CONUS FRI NIGHT...WITH THE FLOW BACKING SOUTHWEST...FOLLOWED BY
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG S/WV ON SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...COMPLEX
PATTERN SETS UP AS TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN US AND
DOWNSTREAM FLOW BECOMES WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE ERN CONUS. THE
00Z/01 MODEL SUITE DISAGREEMENT CENTERS AROUND MAGNITUDE OF S/WV
ENERGY ENTERING THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH AND UPPER MS VALLEY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE EC/UKMET SOLUTION FAVORS A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER
THE NORTHEAST CONUS WHICH LEADS TO A STATIONARY FRONT INVOF THE
MID ATLANTIC...WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION FAVORS MORE OF A MERIDIONAL
FLOW WHICH PLACES THIS FRONT FURTHER TO THE NORTH.

DAY TO DAY...EXPECTING TEMPS ABV AVERAGE ON THU AND FRI W/GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS LIKELY. A GENERALLY DRY DAY EXPECTED THU WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY FRI AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY SAT...
IT WILL TURN BLUSTERY AND PRECIP MAY TURN TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...DEPENDING ON THE THERMAL PROFILE. THIS BEARS WATCHING.
A BRIEF REPRIVE ON SUNDAY BEFORE A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ATTEMPTS
TO SETUP INVOF THE MID ATLANTIC IN THE MON THRU WED TIME FRAME.
THIS FAVORS AN OVERRUNING REGIME...AND WITH THE ADDITION OF GULF
MOISTURE...HEAVY RAINFALL IS A POSSIBILITY DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF OVERNIGHT...VFR WITH NO CIGS OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS.
NORTH WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 10 KTS.

THIS MORNING...VFR WITH NO CIG EXPECTED. SOME SCATTERED MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AIRPORTS. A CUMULUS DECK OF CLOUDS
SHOULD START FORMING. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15
KTS. WE MIGHT HAVE SOME GUSTINESS, BUT BELIEVE THEY SHOULD BE
UNDER 20 KTS AND HAVE NOT CARRIED THEM AT ANY TAF SITE.

THIS AFTERNOON...A VFR CU BASED CIG MIGHT FORM AT NORTHERN AND
PA AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. ELSEWHERE WE ARE EXPECTING THEM TO BE
SCATTERED OR LESS. WINDS SHOULD BACK EVER SO SLIGHTLY MORE TO
THE WEST WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS. NO CHANGE TO GUSTINESS THINKING.

THIS EVENING...CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT QUICKLY.
AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA AND TSRA.

SATURDAY...MVFR IN SHRA EARLY...GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE CONTINUED FOR LOWER DELAWARE
BAY AND THE OCEAN INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING. COMBINATION
OF A RELAXING GRADIENT AND INCREASING AIR TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BRING US BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY THE END OF THE
MORNING.

THEN WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARING OUR AREA, SUB SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SCA CRITERIA
LATE ON THU AND CONTINUE THRU SATURSDAY. MEANWHILE...SOUTHWEST
WINDS ON THU AND FRI ARE ANTICIPATED TO VEER NORTHWEST BY FRI
NIGHT... AND REMAIN AOB THE SCA THRESHOLD DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
THE SCA THRESHOLD ATTM.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/GIGI
MARINE...FRANCK/GIGI



000
FXUS61 KPHI 010759
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
359 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM HUDSONS BAY TODAY AND
SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
THROUGH OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING. A WEAKER COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MAY STALL OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC THROUGH MID-WEEK...AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG
IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER AT 500MB WHILE THE NAM/WRF WAS
BETTER AT 850 MB AND 925MB. GFS 1C TOO COLD AT SEVERAL SITES.
OVERALL A QUIET, BUT CHILLY START TO APRIL ACROSS OUR CWA. THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM IS WELL OFFSHORE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
MOVING EAST TODAY.

INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A CHANNELIZED VORT MAX IS YET TO CLEAR
OUR CWA. THERE IS SOME MAINLY MID LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH OF THIS
FEATURE IN THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL BE PASSING ACROSS OUR CWA (MORE
NORTH THAN SOUTH). ALSO SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING CONVECTIVE TEMPS
GETTING REACHED NORTH. THINK THE GFS TRAPPED MOISTURE LOOKS OVERDONE
GIVEN LACK OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALREADY AND COLD INITIALIZATION
OF 850 MB AND 925MB TEMPS. OVERALL EVEN NORTH THERE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT SUNSHINE AND IT WILL BE LESS OF A CLOUD ISSUE SOUTH. WITH
THE CHANNELIZED VORT MOVING OFFSHORE, SKIES SHOULD BECOME SUNNIER AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

STAT GUIDANCE LOOKS PRETTY MUCH SPOT ON FOR MAX TEMPS TO METHODS WE
NORMALLY FOLLOW. UP NORTH PREFER HIGHER NAM MOS BECAUSE OF THE
COLD INITIALIZATION BY THE GFS. IT MIGHT BE GIVING YESTERDAY`S
SNOW TOO MUCH CREDIT. NORTHWEST WINDS NOT THAT BRISK FOR APRIL,
LIKELY PEAK GUSTS FOR THE DAYTIME AROUND 20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
BECAUSE OF THE UNSEASONABLY COLD FEBRUARY AND MARCH WE ARE DELAYING
THE START OF FROST AND FREEZE PRODUCTS FOR THE DELMARVA UNTIL APRIL
11TH. EVEN LOCALLY, WE ARE WAY BEHIND. OUR NEIGHBOR`S BEAUTIFUL
WHITE MAGNOLIA TREES THAT NORMALLY BLOOM LIKE CLOCKWORK ON THE FIRST
DAY OF SPRING ARE NOT EVEN CLOSE, ESTIMATING WE ARE ABOUT TWO WEEKS
BEHIND SCHEDULE.

SPEAKING OF FROST WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING OVER OUR
CWA TONIGHT, EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
THE GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN TOWARD MORNING, BUT SUSPECT THE
RADIATIONAL INVERSION WILL PREVENT MIXING. AT THE NORTH END OF OUR
CWA SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD ARRIVE TOWARD MORNING. BECAUSE WE
ARE ON THE CONVERGENT SIDE OF THE JET AND STRONG RIDGING IS PREDICTED
OVERNIGHT, DO NOT BELIEVE THEY WILL HAVE MUCH OF A THERMAL IMPACT.
THUS MIN TEMPS IN OUTLYING AREAS ARE AT OR BELOW STAT GUIDANCE.
CLOSER TO STAT GUIDANCE IN URBAN AND COASTAL AREAS.

THE GFS BRINGS MEASURABLE PCPN EVER SO CLOSE TO NJ TOWARD MORNING,
OVER THE PAST MONTH IN THE 24 TO 36 HR FORECAST TIME FRAME, ITS
EQUITABLE THREAT SCORE IS LOWER AND ITS (WET) BIAS WITH THE .01 ISOHYET
IS HIGHER THAN THE SREF, NAM OR ECMWF IN OUR REGION. BTW AT 24 HOURS
THE ECMWF AND AT 36 HR THE NAM HAS HAD THE HIGHEST SCORE WITH THAT
ISOHYET. THAT BEING SAID, THE GFS KEEPS PREDICTED OMEGA, THETA
E RDGG AND MID LEVEL WAA NORTH OF OUR CWA, SO NO PCPN
CORROBORATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE CRESTING OVER THE NORTHEAST
CONUS FRI NIGHT...WITH THE FLOW BACKING SOUTHWEST...FOLLOWED BY
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG S/WV ON SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...COMPLEX
PATTERN SETS UP AS TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN US AND
DOWNSTREAM FLOW BECOMES WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE ERN CONUS. THE
00Z/01 MODEL SUITE DISAGREEMENT CENTERS AROUND MAGNITUDE OF S/WV
ENERGY ENTERING THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH AND UPPER MS VALLEY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE EC/UKMET SOLUTION FAVORS A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER
THE NORTHEAST CONUS WHICH LEADS TO A STATIONARY FRONT INVOF THE
MID ATLANTIC...WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION FAVORS MORE OF A MERIDIONAL
FLOW WHICH PLACES THIS FRONT FURTHER TO THE NORTH.

DAY TO DAY...EXPECTING TEMPS ABV AVERAGE ON THU AND FRI W/GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS LIKELY. A GENERALLY DRY DAY EXPECTED THU WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY FRI AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY SAT...
IT WILL TURN BLUSTERY AND PRECIP MAY TURN TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...DEPENDING ON THE THERMAL PROFILE. THIS BEARS WATCHING.
A BRIEF REPRIVE ON SUNDAY BEFORE A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ATTEMPTS
TO SETUP INVOF THE MID ATLANTIC IN THE MON THRU WED TIME FRAME.
THIS FAVORS AN OVERRUNING REGIME...AND WITH THE ADDITION OF GULF
MOISTURE...HEAVY RAINFALL IS A POSSIBILITY DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF OVERNIGHT...VFR WITH NO CIGS OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS.
NORTH WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 10 KTS.

THIS MORNING...VFR WITH NO CIG EXPECTED. SOME SCATTERED MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AIRPORTS. A CUMULUS DECK OF CLOUDS
SHOULD START FORMING. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15
KTS. WE MIGHT HAVE SOME GUSTINESS, BUT BELIEVE THEY SHOULD BE
UNDER 20 KTS AND HAVE NOT CARRIED THEM AT ANY TAF SITE.

THIS AFTERNOON...A VFR CU BASED CIG MIGHT FORM AT NORTHERN AND
PA AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. ELSEWHERE WE ARE EXPECTING THEM TO BE
SCATTERED OR LESS. WINDS SHOULD BACK EVER SO SLIGHTLY MORE TO
THE WEST WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS. NO CHANGE TO GUSTINESS THINKING.

THIS EVENING...CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT QUICKLY.
AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA AND TSRA.

SATURDAY...MVFR IN SHRA EARLY...GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE CONTINUED FOR LOWER DELAWARE
BAY AND THE OCEAN INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING. COMBINATION
OF A RELAXING GRADIENT AND INCREASING AIR TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BRING US BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY THE END OF THE
MORNING.

THEN WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARING OUR AREA, SUB SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SCA CRITERIA
LATE ON THU AND CONTINUE THRU SATURSDAY. MEANWHILE...SOUTHWEST
WINDS ON THU AND FRI ARE ANTICIPATED TO VEER NORTHWEST BY FRI
NIGHT... AND REMAIN AOB THE SCA THRESHOLD DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
THE SCA THRESHOLD ATTM.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/GIGI
MARINE...FRANCK/GIGI




000
FXUS61 KLWX 010756
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
356 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TODAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL SETUP OVER THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

AS OF 07Z...1019MB SFC HIGH IS OVER SRN OHIO. THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN AS IT SHIFTS EAST OVERHEAD THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY. NLY/NWLY
FLOW WILL EASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE THIS EVENING...
BECOMING A BERMUDA HIGH THURSDAY. UPR RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. RETURN FLOW
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY SLOWLY RETURNS MOISTURE TO THE AREA. PVA AHEAD
OF THE NEXT TROUGH ALLOWS CHANCE POPS FOR THE ALLEGHENY
HIGHLANDS LATE THURSDAY.

MAX TEMPS GENERALLY MID TO UPR 50S TODAY WITH LOW 60S AROUND KCHO
WHERE MORE MIXING IS EXPECTED AS THE HIGH PASSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MIN TEMPS MID TO UPR 30S TONIGHT AS LIGHT RETURN FLOW LIMITS
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

THURSDAY IS WARM AND DRY WITH SWLY FLOW INCREASING AROUND THE
DEVELOPING BERMUDA HIGH. FIRE WX THREAT AGAIN THAT DAY (SEE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW). CONTINUED GOING ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS
WITH LOW TO MID 70S WEST AND SOUTH FROM DC WITH MID TO UPR 60S FOR
CNTRL MD/BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THU NGT A COLD FNT WL STRETCH FM NY STATE ACROSS OH TO MO. IN THE
MID ATLC THIS WL LEAD TO A WARM NGT W/ LOWS IN THE 50S W/ CHC POPS
ACROSS THE WRN PART OF THE FCST AREA. IT APPEARS THAT LOW PRES WL
DVLP ALONG THE FNT OVR KY FRI. THIS WL KEEP THE FNT FM PUSHING
THRU THE AREA...AND WHILE IT WL BE M CLDY FRI IT WL ALSO BE WARM
W/ MUCH OF THE AREA XPCTD TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S DURG THE AFTN.

THE FNT IS XPCTD TO FINALLY MOVE THRU THE AREA FRI NGT. HV INCRSD
POPS TO 70 FRI AFTN/NGT. ISOLD THUNDER WL ALSO BE PSBL.

HIGH PRES WL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA SAT. XPCT A BRZY/M SUNNY
DAY W/ HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S.

HIGH PRES SETTLES OVR THE AREA SUN. LGTR WINDS W/ AFTN TEMPS
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 60S.

NEXT CHC OF RA LOOKS TO BE TUE/WED.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFFSHORE
THIS  EVENING AND BECOMES A BERMUDA HIGH THURSDAY. NWLY FLOW EASES
THROUGH THE MORNING...LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
BECOMING SLY THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY. POSSIBLE SWLY GUSTS TO
20 KT THURSDAY.

THE NEXT CHC FOR SUB VFR CONDS LOOKS TO BE LATE FRI/FRI NGT W/ A
CD FNTL PASSAGE. RW/ISOLD TSTMS PSBL. HIGH PRES RETURNS FOR SAT.
GUSTY WNW WINDS XPCTD. XCLNT FLYING CONDS XPCTD SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

SCA FOR MOST WATERS UNTIL NOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING SLY TONIGHT.
WINDS INCREASE THURSDAY WITH AN SCA STARTING LATE THURSDAY MORNING
CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

RW/ISOLD TSTMS PSBL ON THE WATERS LATE FRI/FRI NGT. HIGH PRES BLDG
BACK INTO THE SAT WL LKLY LEAD TO THE ISSUANCE OF AN SCA. NO PROBS
XPCTD SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SLY/SWLY FLOW AROUND DEVELOPING BERMUDA HIGH BECOMES GUSTY THURSDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. GREATEST
FIRE THREAT IS IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA WHERE WINDS AND HIGHEST
TEMPERATURES MIX.

SAT LOOKS TO BE A BRZY/PSBLY WINDY DAY. DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH
RAIN FALLS FRI NGT WL DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF A FIRE THREAT EXISTS
SAT.


&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ531>534-537-
     539>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ530-535-536-538.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...BAJ/WOODY!




000
FXUS61 KLWX 010756
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
356 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TODAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL SETUP OVER THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

AS OF 07Z...1019MB SFC HIGH IS OVER SRN OHIO. THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN AS IT SHIFTS EAST OVERHEAD THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY. NLY/NWLY
FLOW WILL EASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE THIS EVENING...
BECOMING A BERMUDA HIGH THURSDAY. UPR RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. RETURN FLOW
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY SLOWLY RETURNS MOISTURE TO THE AREA. PVA AHEAD
OF THE NEXT TROUGH ALLOWS CHANCE POPS FOR THE ALLEGHENY
HIGHLANDS LATE THURSDAY.

MAX TEMPS GENERALLY MID TO UPR 50S TODAY WITH LOW 60S AROUND KCHO
WHERE MORE MIXING IS EXPECTED AS THE HIGH PASSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MIN TEMPS MID TO UPR 30S TONIGHT AS LIGHT RETURN FLOW LIMITS
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

THURSDAY IS WARM AND DRY WITH SWLY FLOW INCREASING AROUND THE
DEVELOPING BERMUDA HIGH. FIRE WX THREAT AGAIN THAT DAY (SEE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW). CONTINUED GOING ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS
WITH LOW TO MID 70S WEST AND SOUTH FROM DC WITH MID TO UPR 60S FOR
CNTRL MD/BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THU NGT A COLD FNT WL STRETCH FM NY STATE ACROSS OH TO MO. IN THE
MID ATLC THIS WL LEAD TO A WARM NGT W/ LOWS IN THE 50S W/ CHC POPS
ACROSS THE WRN PART OF THE FCST AREA. IT APPEARS THAT LOW PRES WL
DVLP ALONG THE FNT OVR KY FRI. THIS WL KEEP THE FNT FM PUSHING
THRU THE AREA...AND WHILE IT WL BE M CLDY FRI IT WL ALSO BE WARM
W/ MUCH OF THE AREA XPCTD TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S DURG THE AFTN.

THE FNT IS XPCTD TO FINALLY MOVE THRU THE AREA FRI NGT. HV INCRSD
POPS TO 70 FRI AFTN/NGT. ISOLD THUNDER WL ALSO BE PSBL.

HIGH PRES WL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA SAT. XPCT A BRZY/M SUNNY
DAY W/ HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S.

HIGH PRES SETTLES OVR THE AREA SUN. LGTR WINDS W/ AFTN TEMPS
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 60S.

NEXT CHC OF RA LOOKS TO BE TUE/WED.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFFSHORE
THIS  EVENING AND BECOMES A BERMUDA HIGH THURSDAY. NWLY FLOW EASES
THROUGH THE MORNING...LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
BECOMING SLY THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY. POSSIBLE SWLY GUSTS TO
20 KT THURSDAY.

THE NEXT CHC FOR SUB VFR CONDS LOOKS TO BE LATE FRI/FRI NGT W/ A
CD FNTL PASSAGE. RW/ISOLD TSTMS PSBL. HIGH PRES RETURNS FOR SAT.
GUSTY WNW WINDS XPCTD. XCLNT FLYING CONDS XPCTD SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

SCA FOR MOST WATERS UNTIL NOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING SLY TONIGHT.
WINDS INCREASE THURSDAY WITH AN SCA STARTING LATE THURSDAY MORNING
CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

RW/ISOLD TSTMS PSBL ON THE WATERS LATE FRI/FRI NGT. HIGH PRES BLDG
BACK INTO THE SAT WL LKLY LEAD TO THE ISSUANCE OF AN SCA. NO PROBS
XPCTD SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SLY/SWLY FLOW AROUND DEVELOPING BERMUDA HIGH BECOMES GUSTY THURSDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. GREATEST
FIRE THREAT IS IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA WHERE WINDS AND HIGHEST
TEMPERATURES MIX.

SAT LOOKS TO BE A BRZY/PSBLY WINDY DAY. DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH
RAIN FALLS FRI NGT WL DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF A FIRE THREAT EXISTS
SAT.


&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ531>534-537-
     539>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ530-535-536-538.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...BAJ/WOODY!



000
FXUS61 KLWX 010756
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
356 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TODAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL SETUP OVER THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

AS OF 07Z...1019MB SFC HIGH IS OVER SRN OHIO. THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN AS IT SHIFTS EAST OVERHEAD THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY. NLY/NWLY
FLOW WILL EASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE THIS EVENING...
BECOMING A BERMUDA HIGH THURSDAY. UPR RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. RETURN FLOW
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY SLOWLY RETURNS MOISTURE TO THE AREA. PVA AHEAD
OF THE NEXT TROUGH ALLOWS CHANCE POPS FOR THE ALLEGHENY
HIGHLANDS LATE THURSDAY.

MAX TEMPS GENERALLY MID TO UPR 50S TODAY WITH LOW 60S AROUND KCHO
WHERE MORE MIXING IS EXPECTED AS THE HIGH PASSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MIN TEMPS MID TO UPR 30S TONIGHT AS LIGHT RETURN FLOW LIMITS
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

THURSDAY IS WARM AND DRY WITH SWLY FLOW INCREASING AROUND THE
DEVELOPING BERMUDA HIGH. FIRE WX THREAT AGAIN THAT DAY (SEE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW). CONTINUED GOING ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS
WITH LOW TO MID 70S WEST AND SOUTH FROM DC WITH MID TO UPR 60S FOR
CNTRL MD/BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THU NGT A COLD FNT WL STRETCH FM NY STATE ACROSS OH TO MO. IN THE
MID ATLC THIS WL LEAD TO A WARM NGT W/ LOWS IN THE 50S W/ CHC POPS
ACROSS THE WRN PART OF THE FCST AREA. IT APPEARS THAT LOW PRES WL
DVLP ALONG THE FNT OVR KY FRI. THIS WL KEEP THE FNT FM PUSHING
THRU THE AREA...AND WHILE IT WL BE M CLDY FRI IT WL ALSO BE WARM
W/ MUCH OF THE AREA XPCTD TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S DURG THE AFTN.

THE FNT IS XPCTD TO FINALLY MOVE THRU THE AREA FRI NGT. HV INCRSD
POPS TO 70 FRI AFTN/NGT. ISOLD THUNDER WL ALSO BE PSBL.

HIGH PRES WL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA SAT. XPCT A BRZY/M SUNNY
DAY W/ HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S.

HIGH PRES SETTLES OVR THE AREA SUN. LGTR WINDS W/ AFTN TEMPS
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 60S.

NEXT CHC OF RA LOOKS TO BE TUE/WED.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFFSHORE
THIS  EVENING AND BECOMES A BERMUDA HIGH THURSDAY. NWLY FLOW EASES
THROUGH THE MORNING...LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
BECOMING SLY THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY. POSSIBLE SWLY GUSTS TO
20 KT THURSDAY.

THE NEXT CHC FOR SUB VFR CONDS LOOKS TO BE LATE FRI/FRI NGT W/ A
CD FNTL PASSAGE. RW/ISOLD TSTMS PSBL. HIGH PRES RETURNS FOR SAT.
GUSTY WNW WINDS XPCTD. XCLNT FLYING CONDS XPCTD SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

SCA FOR MOST WATERS UNTIL NOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING SLY TONIGHT.
WINDS INCREASE THURSDAY WITH AN SCA STARTING LATE THURSDAY MORNING
CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

RW/ISOLD TSTMS PSBL ON THE WATERS LATE FRI/FRI NGT. HIGH PRES BLDG
BACK INTO THE SAT WL LKLY LEAD TO THE ISSUANCE OF AN SCA. NO PROBS
XPCTD SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SLY/SWLY FLOW AROUND DEVELOPING BERMUDA HIGH BECOMES GUSTY THURSDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. GREATEST
FIRE THREAT IS IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA WHERE WINDS AND HIGHEST
TEMPERATURES MIX.

SAT LOOKS TO BE A BRZY/PSBLY WINDY DAY. DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH
RAIN FALLS FRI NGT WL DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF A FIRE THREAT EXISTS
SAT.


&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ531>534-537-
     539>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ530-535-536-538.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...BAJ/WOODY!




000
FXUS61 KLWX 010756
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
356 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TODAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL SETUP OVER THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

AS OF 07Z...1019MB SFC HIGH IS OVER SRN OHIO. THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN AS IT SHIFTS EAST OVERHEAD THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY. NLY/NWLY
FLOW WILL EASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE THIS EVENING...
BECOMING A BERMUDA HIGH THURSDAY. UPR RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. RETURN FLOW
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY SLOWLY RETURNS MOISTURE TO THE AREA. PVA AHEAD
OF THE NEXT TROUGH ALLOWS CHANCE POPS FOR THE ALLEGHENY
HIGHLANDS LATE THURSDAY.

MAX TEMPS GENERALLY MID TO UPR 50S TODAY WITH LOW 60S AROUND KCHO
WHERE MORE MIXING IS EXPECTED AS THE HIGH PASSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MIN TEMPS MID TO UPR 30S TONIGHT AS LIGHT RETURN FLOW LIMITS
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

THURSDAY IS WARM AND DRY WITH SWLY FLOW INCREASING AROUND THE
DEVELOPING BERMUDA HIGH. FIRE WX THREAT AGAIN THAT DAY (SEE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW). CONTINUED GOING ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS
WITH LOW TO MID 70S WEST AND SOUTH FROM DC WITH MID TO UPR 60S FOR
CNTRL MD/BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THU NGT A COLD FNT WL STRETCH FM NY STATE ACROSS OH TO MO. IN THE
MID ATLC THIS WL LEAD TO A WARM NGT W/ LOWS IN THE 50S W/ CHC POPS
ACROSS THE WRN PART OF THE FCST AREA. IT APPEARS THAT LOW PRES WL
DVLP ALONG THE FNT OVR KY FRI. THIS WL KEEP THE FNT FM PUSHING
THRU THE AREA...AND WHILE IT WL BE M CLDY FRI IT WL ALSO BE WARM
W/ MUCH OF THE AREA XPCTD TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S DURG THE AFTN.

THE FNT IS XPCTD TO FINALLY MOVE THRU THE AREA FRI NGT. HV INCRSD
POPS TO 70 FRI AFTN/NGT. ISOLD THUNDER WL ALSO BE PSBL.

HIGH PRES WL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA SAT. XPCT A BRZY/M SUNNY
DAY W/ HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S.

HIGH PRES SETTLES OVR THE AREA SUN. LGTR WINDS W/ AFTN TEMPS
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 60S.

NEXT CHC OF RA LOOKS TO BE TUE/WED.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFFSHORE
THIS  EVENING AND BECOMES A BERMUDA HIGH THURSDAY. NWLY FLOW EASES
THROUGH THE MORNING...LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
BECOMING SLY THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY. POSSIBLE SWLY GUSTS TO
20 KT THURSDAY.

THE NEXT CHC FOR SUB VFR CONDS LOOKS TO BE LATE FRI/FRI NGT W/ A
CD FNTL PASSAGE. RW/ISOLD TSTMS PSBL. HIGH PRES RETURNS FOR SAT.
GUSTY WNW WINDS XPCTD. XCLNT FLYING CONDS XPCTD SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

SCA FOR MOST WATERS UNTIL NOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING SLY TONIGHT.
WINDS INCREASE THURSDAY WITH AN SCA STARTING LATE THURSDAY MORNING
CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

RW/ISOLD TSTMS PSBL ON THE WATERS LATE FRI/FRI NGT. HIGH PRES BLDG
BACK INTO THE SAT WL LKLY LEAD TO THE ISSUANCE OF AN SCA. NO PROBS
XPCTD SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SLY/SWLY FLOW AROUND DEVELOPING BERMUDA HIGH BECOMES GUSTY THURSDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. GREATEST
FIRE THREAT IS IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA WHERE WINDS AND HIGHEST
TEMPERATURES MIX.

SAT LOOKS TO BE A BRZY/PSBLY WINDY DAY. DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH
RAIN FALLS FRI NGT WL DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF A FIRE THREAT EXISTS
SAT.


&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ531>534-537-
     539>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ530-535-536-538.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...BAJ/WOODY!



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010738
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
338 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWERS BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
PIT. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER
TODAY WITH ANY REMAINING CLOUDS DECREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
NEAR AVERAGE HIGHS ARE EXPECTED USING THE LATEST BIAS CORRECTED
MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS WAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY WITH INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES. LIMITED INSTABILITY IS
PROGGED...BUT WITH A LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE AND SHOWALTER INDICIES
JUST BELOW ZERO...MAINTAINED THE CHANCE OF THUNDER. THE FRONT IS
PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AS A SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPS AND TRACKS ALONG IT...WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUING.
WITH THE RAIN PROGGED TO BE SPREAD OUT OVER A COUPLE OF DAYS...
SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH THE FRONT AND SURFACE WAVE EXITING. A BRIEF
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS THE PRECIP ENDS. ANY REMAINING
PRECIP CHANCES...MAINLY NE OF PIT...SHOULD DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON.

GENERALLY FOLLOWED A NAM/SREF/GFS BLEND FOR FORECAST DETAILS.
DISCOUNTED ECMWF/S STRONGER SURFACE WAVE WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG
DIGGING UPPER TROUGH. A BLEND OF SREF AND MOS DATA WAS USED FOR
THE TEMP FORECAST...RESULTING IN READINGS AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THURSDAY IN GUSTY SW WINDS...WITH A DECREASE TO BELOW
AVERAGE LEVELS AGAIN BY SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TRAILING SHORTWAVE IS STILL PROGGED TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS
ALONG A SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
SITUATION...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE SO SLIGHT...TO CHANCE POPS WERE CONFINED TO NORTHERN COUNTIES.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVERY TO NEAR...THEN ABOVE
THE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS IN RESPONSE TO WESTERN STATES TROUGHING. PRECIP
CHANCE WILL RISE AS THE WEEK AND TROUGH PROGRESS.

THE LONG TERM PROGNOSIS WAS PRIMARILY BASED ON ADJUSTED WPC
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERAL VFR IS EXPECTED AT ALL PORTS UNTIL THE APPROACH OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE LATER THIS MORNING. SOME MVFR STRATOCU ARE POSSIBLE AT
NRN TERMINALS WITH THAT FEATURE...WITH CONTINUED VFR UNDER MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS AT OTHER PORTS.

ALREADY LIGHT SURFACE WIND WILL BACK MORE TO THE WEST AS A HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER BUILDS OVER WEST VIRGINIA.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS SHOWERS...AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATER THURSDAY...AND INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/15






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010738
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
338 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWERS BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
PIT. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER
TODAY WITH ANY REMAINING CLOUDS DECREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
NEAR AVERAGE HIGHS ARE EXPECTED USING THE LATEST BIAS CORRECTED
MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS WAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY WITH INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES. LIMITED INSTABILITY IS
PROGGED...BUT WITH A LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE AND SHOWALTER INDICIES
JUST BELOW ZERO...MAINTAINED THE CHANCE OF THUNDER. THE FRONT IS
PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AS A SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPS AND TRACKS ALONG IT...WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUING.
WITH THE RAIN PROGGED TO BE SPREAD OUT OVER A COUPLE OF DAYS...
SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH THE FRONT AND SURFACE WAVE EXITING. A BRIEF
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS THE PRECIP ENDS. ANY REMAINING
PRECIP CHANCES...MAINLY NE OF PIT...SHOULD DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON.

GENERALLY FOLLOWED A NAM/SREF/GFS BLEND FOR FORECAST DETAILS.
DISCOUNTED ECMWF/S STRONGER SURFACE WAVE WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG
DIGGING UPPER TROUGH. A BLEND OF SREF AND MOS DATA WAS USED FOR
THE TEMP FORECAST...RESULTING IN READINGS AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THURSDAY IN GUSTY SW WINDS...WITH A DECREASE TO BELOW
AVERAGE LEVELS AGAIN BY SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TRAILING SHORTWAVE IS STILL PROGGED TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS
ALONG A SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
SITUATION...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE SO SLIGHT...TO CHANCE POPS WERE CONFINED TO NORTHERN COUNTIES.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVERY TO NEAR...THEN ABOVE
THE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS IN RESPONSE TO WESTERN STATES TROUGHING. PRECIP
CHANCE WILL RISE AS THE WEEK AND TROUGH PROGRESS.

THE LONG TERM PROGNOSIS WAS PRIMARILY BASED ON ADJUSTED WPC
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERAL VFR IS EXPECTED AT ALL PORTS UNTIL THE APPROACH OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE LATER THIS MORNING. SOME MVFR STRATOCU ARE POSSIBLE AT
NRN TERMINALS WITH THAT FEATURE...WITH CONTINUED VFR UNDER MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS AT OTHER PORTS.

ALREADY LIGHT SURFACE WIND WILL BACK MORE TO THE WEST AS A HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER BUILDS OVER WEST VIRGINIA.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS SHOWERS...AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATER THURSDAY...AND INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/15







000
FXUS61 KPHI 010657 CCA
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
136 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF
INTO THE ATLANTIC LATER OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE AWAY
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING CANADA AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE. PCPN HAS MOVED
OFFSHORE AS THE SFC LOW IS EXITING RAPIDLY TO THE EAST. SKIES ARE
CLEARING. GRADIENT WINDS THOUGH HAVE BEEN A LITTLE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE AND WE ADJUSTED THEM DOWN.

OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS ARE FCST TO DROP TO THE LOW/MID 30S OVER NRN
DELMARVA...HWVR THE START OF THE GROWING SEASON WAS POSTPONED
UNTIL APRIL 11TH FOR THE DELMARVA, NO FROST PRODUCT CONSIDERATIONS
UNTIL THEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL MEAN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND 10 MPH. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO AROUND 0C SUGGEST A FAIRLY DECENT SHOT AT
LOW 50`S FOR PHL WITH QUITE A BIT LESS SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY. MET/MAV
USED WITH MOST ELEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO APRIL`S FOOL JOKE HERE...LOOKS LIKE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SPRING- LIKE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE LONG TERM.

THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL STOP
RECHARGING ON CANADIAN COLD AIR AND UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RETURN BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH SOME RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST NEXT WEEK. THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT RAIN WILL BE THE
P-TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
LATE PART OF THE WEEK...BEFORE RETURNING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WED NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WED NIGHT AND A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THU.

THU NIGHT THRU SAT...A SUBTLE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND FRI. CHCS FOR SHOWERS INCREASE FROM THE
W THU NIGHT AND THEN A LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND
MOVES ALONG IT ACROSS OUR AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THE LOW DEEPENS
RATHER STRONGLY...SO A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN AND SCT TSTMS EXPECTED.
LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ATTM. PRECIP
TAPERS OFF FROM W TO E SAT MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THU
NIGHT THRU FRI AND THEN DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SAT.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY DRY. FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE N/W MON
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS STATES MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS OUR AREA. FOLLOWED WPC
POPS WITH MOSTLY CHC SHOWERS MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 06Z TAFS WILL BE VFR DURING THE DAY AND EVENING TODAY.

EARLY OVERNIGHT...SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL CLOUDS (MAINLY MVFR
CIGS NEAR THE COAST AND INTERIOR VALLEYS) AND LIGHT FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 08Z. AFTER THAT NO CIG OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
NORTH WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 10 KTS.

THIS MORNING...VFR WITH NO CIG EXPECTED. A CUMULUS DECK OF CLOUDS
SHOULD START FORMING. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15
KTS. WE MIGHT HAVE SOME GUSTINESS, BUT BELIEVE THEY SHOULD BE
UNDER 20 KTS AND HAVE NOT CARRIED THEM AT ANY TAF SITE.

THIS AFTERNOON...A VFR CU BASED CIG MIGHT FORM AT NORTHERN AND
PA AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. ELSEWHERE WE ARE EXPECTING THEM TO BE
SCATTERED OR LESS. WINDS SHOULD BACK EVER SO SLIGHTLY MORE TO
THE WEST WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS. NO CHANGE TO GUSTINESS THINKING.

THIS EVENING...CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT QUICKLY.
AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
EARLY THU...VFR EXPECTED.

THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING..PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS
AND A FEW TSTMS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED THE SCA INTO LOWER DELAWARE BAY, ALSO EXTENDED THE
ENDING TIME TIL 13Z/9 AM THIS MORNING.

SEAS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING AFTER
A PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SCA WIND GUSTS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BE AROUND FIVE FEET.
SUB SCA SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING ONWARD TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING...FAIR WEATHER. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS.
THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...AMC/GAINES/GIGI/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/GIGI/JOHNSON/O`HARA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 010657 CCA
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
136 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF
INTO THE ATLANTIC LATER OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE AWAY
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING CANADA AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE. PCPN HAS MOVED
OFFSHORE AS THE SFC LOW IS EXITING RAPIDLY TO THE EAST. SKIES ARE
CLEARING. GRADIENT WINDS THOUGH HAVE BEEN A LITTLE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE AND WE ADJUSTED THEM DOWN.

OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS ARE FCST TO DROP TO THE LOW/MID 30S OVER NRN
DELMARVA...HWVR THE START OF THE GROWING SEASON WAS POSTPONED
UNTIL APRIL 11TH FOR THE DELMARVA, NO FROST PRODUCT CONSIDERATIONS
UNTIL THEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL MEAN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND 10 MPH. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO AROUND 0C SUGGEST A FAIRLY DECENT SHOT AT
LOW 50`S FOR PHL WITH QUITE A BIT LESS SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY. MET/MAV
USED WITH MOST ELEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO APRIL`S FOOL JOKE HERE...LOOKS LIKE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SPRING- LIKE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE LONG TERM.

THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL STOP
RECHARGING ON CANADIAN COLD AIR AND UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RETURN BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH SOME RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST NEXT WEEK. THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT RAIN WILL BE THE
P-TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
LATE PART OF THE WEEK...BEFORE RETURNING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WED NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WED NIGHT AND A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THU.

THU NIGHT THRU SAT...A SUBTLE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND FRI. CHCS FOR SHOWERS INCREASE FROM THE
W THU NIGHT AND THEN A LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND
MOVES ALONG IT ACROSS OUR AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THE LOW DEEPENS
RATHER STRONGLY...SO A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN AND SCT TSTMS EXPECTED.
LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ATTM. PRECIP
TAPERS OFF FROM W TO E SAT MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THU
NIGHT THRU FRI AND THEN DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SAT.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY DRY. FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE N/W MON
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS STATES MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS OUR AREA. FOLLOWED WPC
POPS WITH MOSTLY CHC SHOWERS MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 06Z TAFS WILL BE VFR DURING THE DAY AND EVENING TODAY.

EARLY OVERNIGHT...SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL CLOUDS (MAINLY MVFR
CIGS NEAR THE COAST AND INTERIOR VALLEYS) AND LIGHT FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 08Z. AFTER THAT NO CIG OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
NORTH WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 10 KTS.

THIS MORNING...VFR WITH NO CIG EXPECTED. A CUMULUS DECK OF CLOUDS
SHOULD START FORMING. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15
KTS. WE MIGHT HAVE SOME GUSTINESS, BUT BELIEVE THEY SHOULD BE
UNDER 20 KTS AND HAVE NOT CARRIED THEM AT ANY TAF SITE.

THIS AFTERNOON...A VFR CU BASED CIG MIGHT FORM AT NORTHERN AND
PA AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. ELSEWHERE WE ARE EXPECTING THEM TO BE
SCATTERED OR LESS. WINDS SHOULD BACK EVER SO SLIGHTLY MORE TO
THE WEST WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS. NO CHANGE TO GUSTINESS THINKING.

THIS EVENING...CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT QUICKLY.
AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
EARLY THU...VFR EXPECTED.

THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING..PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS
AND A FEW TSTMS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED THE SCA INTO LOWER DELAWARE BAY, ALSO EXTENDED THE
ENDING TIME TIL 13Z/9 AM THIS MORNING.

SEAS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING AFTER
A PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SCA WIND GUSTS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BE AROUND FIVE FEET.
SUB SCA SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING ONWARD TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING...FAIR WEATHER. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS.
THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...AMC/GAINES/GIGI/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/GIGI/JOHNSON/O`HARA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 010657 CCA
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
136 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF
INTO THE ATLANTIC LATER OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE AWAY
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING CANADA AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE. PCPN HAS MOVED
OFFSHORE AS THE SFC LOW IS EXITING RAPIDLY TO THE EAST. SKIES ARE
CLEARING. GRADIENT WINDS THOUGH HAVE BEEN A LITTLE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE AND WE ADJUSTED THEM DOWN.

OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS ARE FCST TO DROP TO THE LOW/MID 30S OVER NRN
DELMARVA...HWVR THE START OF THE GROWING SEASON WAS POSTPONED
UNTIL APRIL 11TH FOR THE DELMARVA, NO FROST PRODUCT CONSIDERATIONS
UNTIL THEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL MEAN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND 10 MPH. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO AROUND 0C SUGGEST A FAIRLY DECENT SHOT AT
LOW 50`S FOR PHL WITH QUITE A BIT LESS SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY. MET/MAV
USED WITH MOST ELEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO APRIL`S FOOL JOKE HERE...LOOKS LIKE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SPRING- LIKE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE LONG TERM.

THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL STOP
RECHARGING ON CANADIAN COLD AIR AND UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RETURN BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH SOME RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST NEXT WEEK. THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT RAIN WILL BE THE
P-TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
LATE PART OF THE WEEK...BEFORE RETURNING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WED NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WED NIGHT AND A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THU.

THU NIGHT THRU SAT...A SUBTLE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND FRI. CHCS FOR SHOWERS INCREASE FROM THE
W THU NIGHT AND THEN A LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND
MOVES ALONG IT ACROSS OUR AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THE LOW DEEPENS
RATHER STRONGLY...SO A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN AND SCT TSTMS EXPECTED.
LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ATTM. PRECIP
TAPERS OFF FROM W TO E SAT MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THU
NIGHT THRU FRI AND THEN DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SAT.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY DRY. FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE N/W MON
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS STATES MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS OUR AREA. FOLLOWED WPC
POPS WITH MOSTLY CHC SHOWERS MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 06Z TAFS WILL BE VFR DURING THE DAY AND EVENING TODAY.

EARLY OVERNIGHT...SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL CLOUDS (MAINLY MVFR
CIGS NEAR THE COAST AND INTERIOR VALLEYS) AND LIGHT FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 08Z. AFTER THAT NO CIG OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
NORTH WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 10 KTS.

THIS MORNING...VFR WITH NO CIG EXPECTED. A CUMULUS DECK OF CLOUDS
SHOULD START FORMING. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15
KTS. WE MIGHT HAVE SOME GUSTINESS, BUT BELIEVE THEY SHOULD BE
UNDER 20 KTS AND HAVE NOT CARRIED THEM AT ANY TAF SITE.

THIS AFTERNOON...A VFR CU BASED CIG MIGHT FORM AT NORTHERN AND
PA AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. ELSEWHERE WE ARE EXPECTING THEM TO BE
SCATTERED OR LESS. WINDS SHOULD BACK EVER SO SLIGHTLY MORE TO
THE WEST WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS. NO CHANGE TO GUSTINESS THINKING.

THIS EVENING...CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT QUICKLY.
AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
EARLY THU...VFR EXPECTED.

THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING..PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS
AND A FEW TSTMS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED THE SCA INTO LOWER DELAWARE BAY, ALSO EXTENDED THE
ENDING TIME TIL 13Z/9 AM THIS MORNING.

SEAS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING AFTER
A PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SCA WIND GUSTS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BE AROUND FIVE FEET.
SUB SCA SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING ONWARD TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING...FAIR WEATHER. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS.
THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...AMC/GAINES/GIGI/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/GIGI/JOHNSON/O`HARA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 010657 CCA
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
136 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF
INTO THE ATLANTIC LATER OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE AWAY
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING CANADA AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE. PCPN HAS MOVED
OFFSHORE AS THE SFC LOW IS EXITING RAPIDLY TO THE EAST. SKIES ARE
CLEARING. GRADIENT WINDS THOUGH HAVE BEEN A LITTLE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE AND WE ADJUSTED THEM DOWN.

OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS ARE FCST TO DROP TO THE LOW/MID 30S OVER NRN
DELMARVA...HWVR THE START OF THE GROWING SEASON WAS POSTPONED
UNTIL APRIL 11TH FOR THE DELMARVA, NO FROST PRODUCT CONSIDERATIONS
UNTIL THEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL MEAN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND 10 MPH. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO AROUND 0C SUGGEST A FAIRLY DECENT SHOT AT
LOW 50`S FOR PHL WITH QUITE A BIT LESS SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY. MET/MAV
USED WITH MOST ELEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO APRIL`S FOOL JOKE HERE...LOOKS LIKE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SPRING- LIKE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE LONG TERM.

THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL STOP
RECHARGING ON CANADIAN COLD AIR AND UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RETURN BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH SOME RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST NEXT WEEK. THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT RAIN WILL BE THE
P-TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
LATE PART OF THE WEEK...BEFORE RETURNING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WED NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WED NIGHT AND A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THU.

THU NIGHT THRU SAT...A SUBTLE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND FRI. CHCS FOR SHOWERS INCREASE FROM THE
W THU NIGHT AND THEN A LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND
MOVES ALONG IT ACROSS OUR AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THE LOW DEEPENS
RATHER STRONGLY...SO A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN AND SCT TSTMS EXPECTED.
LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ATTM. PRECIP
TAPERS OFF FROM W TO E SAT MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THU
NIGHT THRU FRI AND THEN DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SAT.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY DRY. FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE N/W MON
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS STATES MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS OUR AREA. FOLLOWED WPC
POPS WITH MOSTLY CHC SHOWERS MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 06Z TAFS WILL BE VFR DURING THE DAY AND EVENING TODAY.

EARLY OVERNIGHT...SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL CLOUDS (MAINLY MVFR
CIGS NEAR THE COAST AND INTERIOR VALLEYS) AND LIGHT FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 08Z. AFTER THAT NO CIG OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
NORTH WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 10 KTS.

THIS MORNING...VFR WITH NO CIG EXPECTED. A CUMULUS DECK OF CLOUDS
SHOULD START FORMING. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15
KTS. WE MIGHT HAVE SOME GUSTINESS, BUT BELIEVE THEY SHOULD BE
UNDER 20 KTS AND HAVE NOT CARRIED THEM AT ANY TAF SITE.

THIS AFTERNOON...A VFR CU BASED CIG MIGHT FORM AT NORTHERN AND
PA AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. ELSEWHERE WE ARE EXPECTING THEM TO BE
SCATTERED OR LESS. WINDS SHOULD BACK EVER SO SLIGHTLY MORE TO
THE WEST WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS. NO CHANGE TO GUSTINESS THINKING.

THIS EVENING...CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT QUICKLY.
AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
EARLY THU...VFR EXPECTED.

THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING..PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS
AND A FEW TSTMS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED THE SCA INTO LOWER DELAWARE BAY, ALSO EXTENDED THE
ENDING TIME TIL 13Z/9 AM THIS MORNING.

SEAS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING AFTER
A PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SCA WIND GUSTS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BE AROUND FIVE FEET.
SUB SCA SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING ONWARD TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING...FAIR WEATHER. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS.
THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...AMC/GAINES/GIGI/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/GIGI/JOHNSON/O`HARA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 010657 CCA
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
136 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF
INTO THE ATLANTIC LATER OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE AWAY
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING CANADA AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE. PCPN HAS MOVED
OFFSHORE AS THE SFC LOW IS EXITING RAPIDLY TO THE EAST. SKIES ARE
CLEARING. GRADIENT WINDS THOUGH HAVE BEEN A LITTLE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE AND WE ADJUSTED THEM DOWN.

OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS ARE FCST TO DROP TO THE LOW/MID 30S OVER NRN
DELMARVA...HWVR THE START OF THE GROWING SEASON WAS POSTPONED
UNTIL APRIL 11TH FOR THE DELMARVA, NO FROST PRODUCT CONSIDERATIONS
UNTIL THEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL MEAN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND 10 MPH. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO AROUND 0C SUGGEST A FAIRLY DECENT SHOT AT
LOW 50`S FOR PHL WITH QUITE A BIT LESS SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY. MET/MAV
USED WITH MOST ELEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO APRIL`S FOOL JOKE HERE...LOOKS LIKE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SPRING- LIKE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE LONG TERM.

THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL STOP
RECHARGING ON CANADIAN COLD AIR AND UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RETURN BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH SOME RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST NEXT WEEK. THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT RAIN WILL BE THE
P-TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
LATE PART OF THE WEEK...BEFORE RETURNING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WED NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WED NIGHT AND A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THU.

THU NIGHT THRU SAT...A SUBTLE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND FRI. CHCS FOR SHOWERS INCREASE FROM THE
W THU NIGHT AND THEN A LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND
MOVES ALONG IT ACROSS OUR AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THE LOW DEEPENS
RATHER STRONGLY...SO A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN AND SCT TSTMS EXPECTED.
LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ATTM. PRECIP
TAPERS OFF FROM W TO E SAT MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THU
NIGHT THRU FRI AND THEN DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SAT.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY DRY. FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE N/W MON
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS STATES MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS OUR AREA. FOLLOWED WPC
POPS WITH MOSTLY CHC SHOWERS MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 06Z TAFS WILL BE VFR DURING THE DAY AND EVENING TODAY.

EARLY OVERNIGHT...SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL CLOUDS (MAINLY MVFR
CIGS NEAR THE COAST AND INTERIOR VALLEYS) AND LIGHT FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 08Z. AFTER THAT NO CIG OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
NORTH WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 10 KTS.

THIS MORNING...VFR WITH NO CIG EXPECTED. A CUMULUS DECK OF CLOUDS
SHOULD START FORMING. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15
KTS. WE MIGHT HAVE SOME GUSTINESS, BUT BELIEVE THEY SHOULD BE
UNDER 20 KTS AND HAVE NOT CARRIED THEM AT ANY TAF SITE.

THIS AFTERNOON...A VFR CU BASED CIG MIGHT FORM AT NORTHERN AND
PA AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. ELSEWHERE WE ARE EXPECTING THEM TO BE
SCATTERED OR LESS. WINDS SHOULD BACK EVER SO SLIGHTLY MORE TO
THE WEST WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS. NO CHANGE TO GUSTINESS THINKING.

THIS EVENING...CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT QUICKLY.
AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
EARLY THU...VFR EXPECTED.

THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING..PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS
AND A FEW TSTMS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED THE SCA INTO LOWER DELAWARE BAY, ALSO EXTENDED THE
ENDING TIME TIL 13Z/9 AM THIS MORNING.

SEAS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING AFTER
A PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SCA WIND GUSTS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BE AROUND FIVE FEET.
SUB SCA SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING ONWARD TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING...FAIR WEATHER. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS.
THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...AMC/GAINES/GIGI/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/GIGI/JOHNSON/O`HARA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 010657 CCA
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
136 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF
INTO THE ATLANTIC LATER OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE AWAY
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING CANADA AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE. PCPN HAS MOVED
OFFSHORE AS THE SFC LOW IS EXITING RAPIDLY TO THE EAST. SKIES ARE
CLEARING. GRADIENT WINDS THOUGH HAVE BEEN A LITTLE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE AND WE ADJUSTED THEM DOWN.

OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS ARE FCST TO DROP TO THE LOW/MID 30S OVER NRN
DELMARVA...HWVR THE START OF THE GROWING SEASON WAS POSTPONED
UNTIL APRIL 11TH FOR THE DELMARVA, NO FROST PRODUCT CONSIDERATIONS
UNTIL THEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL MEAN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND 10 MPH. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO AROUND 0C SUGGEST A FAIRLY DECENT SHOT AT
LOW 50`S FOR PHL WITH QUITE A BIT LESS SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY. MET/MAV
USED WITH MOST ELEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO APRIL`S FOOL JOKE HERE...LOOKS LIKE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SPRING- LIKE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE LONG TERM.

THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL STOP
RECHARGING ON CANADIAN COLD AIR AND UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RETURN BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH SOME RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST NEXT WEEK. THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT RAIN WILL BE THE
P-TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
LATE PART OF THE WEEK...BEFORE RETURNING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WED NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WED NIGHT AND A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THU.

THU NIGHT THRU SAT...A SUBTLE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND FRI. CHCS FOR SHOWERS INCREASE FROM THE
W THU NIGHT AND THEN A LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND
MOVES ALONG IT ACROSS OUR AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THE LOW DEEPENS
RATHER STRONGLY...SO A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN AND SCT TSTMS EXPECTED.
LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ATTM. PRECIP
TAPERS OFF FROM W TO E SAT MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THU
NIGHT THRU FRI AND THEN DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SAT.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY DRY. FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE N/W MON
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS STATES MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS OUR AREA. FOLLOWED WPC
POPS WITH MOSTLY CHC SHOWERS MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 06Z TAFS WILL BE VFR DURING THE DAY AND EVENING TODAY.

EARLY OVERNIGHT...SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL CLOUDS (MAINLY MVFR
CIGS NEAR THE COAST AND INTERIOR VALLEYS) AND LIGHT FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 08Z. AFTER THAT NO CIG OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
NORTH WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 10 KTS.

THIS MORNING...VFR WITH NO CIG EXPECTED. A CUMULUS DECK OF CLOUDS
SHOULD START FORMING. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15
KTS. WE MIGHT HAVE SOME GUSTINESS, BUT BELIEVE THEY SHOULD BE
UNDER 20 KTS AND HAVE NOT CARRIED THEM AT ANY TAF SITE.

THIS AFTERNOON...A VFR CU BASED CIG MIGHT FORM AT NORTHERN AND
PA AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. ELSEWHERE WE ARE EXPECTING THEM TO BE
SCATTERED OR LESS. WINDS SHOULD BACK EVER SO SLIGHTLY MORE TO
THE WEST WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS. NO CHANGE TO GUSTINESS THINKING.

THIS EVENING...CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT QUICKLY.
AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
EARLY THU...VFR EXPECTED.

THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING..PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS
AND A FEW TSTMS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED THE SCA INTO LOWER DELAWARE BAY, ALSO EXTENDED THE
ENDING TIME TIL 13Z/9 AM THIS MORNING.

SEAS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING AFTER
A PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SCA WIND GUSTS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BE AROUND FIVE FEET.
SUB SCA SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING ONWARD TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING...FAIR WEATHER. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS.
THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...AMC/GAINES/GIGI/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/GIGI/JOHNSON/O`HARA



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010554
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
154 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...AND GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF
THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...AND CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
APPEARS THE RAP IS BEST HANDLING ON WHAT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. MOISTURE CONTS TO INCREASE ALONG THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT AS IT IS CROSSING THE PIEDMONT LATE THIS EVE WITH EVEN SOME
LTG STRIKES SINCE 00Z. MEANWHILE...CENTER OF THE LOW NOW APPRCHG
THE LWR CHES BAY NEAR WINDMILL PT. HAVE BUMBED UP POPS FOR THE
REST OF THE EVENING WEST OF THE BAY WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
CONTG ALONG THE ERN SHORE. ADDED SLGHT CHC THUNDER TO SRN VA CNTYS
AS WELL. ADDED A FEW HOURS OF POPS TO THE ENR SHORE THRU 06Z WHERE
SHWRS PROGGED TO LINGER. WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NNW BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW OVR THE MARINE AREA. GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ARE PSBL
ONCE THIS OCCURS.

A GUST TO 48KTS AT 827 PM RESULTED IN A MINI "HEAT BURST" AT RIC
AS THE TMP JUMPED FROM 73 TO 79 DEGREES.

CONDS DRY OUT QUICKLY AFTER 06Z WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.
LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON WED. A COOLER DAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER-MID 60S FOR INTERIOR SRN VA/NE NC AND IN THE MID- UPPER 50S
CLOSER TO THE COAST AS WINDS TURN ONSHORE IN THE AFTN AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE
LATE WED NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT
IN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 MOST LOCATIONS.
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE
WITHIN A WARMING AIRMASS ESPECIALLY AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP
BY THE AFTN. MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S ONCE
AGAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID- UPPER 60S
AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. INCREASING CLOUDS THU NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND A MORE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS.
IN GENERAL...MODELS ARE SLOWER AT BRINGING IN DEEP MOISTURE AND
THE NRN STREAM AND SRN STREAM ARE SLOWER TO PHASE. HAVE SCALED
BACK A BIT ON POPS FOR FRI...LOOKS LIKE A LOW END CHC FOR MAINLY
-RA FRI MORNING...PRIMARILY ACRS NRN ZONES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. VERY MILD THU NIGHT IN SSW FLOW AND
INCRAESING CLOUDS...LOWS IN THE 50S TO POSSIBLE AS WARM AS 60 F IN
A FEW SPOTS. WARM/VARIABLY CLOUDY FRI WITH 20-30% CHC FOR -SHRA
AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY TSTMS AS THE SFC FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO
THE REGION. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 70S...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO
80F IF ENOUGH SUN CAN PREVAIL. MAIN RAIN EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL FRI NIGHT DESCRIBED IN THE LONG TERM BELOW...

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WET AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. STILL SOME MINOR SPATIAL AND TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WRT ASSOCIATED SRN STREAM ENERGY AND THE
COLD FRONT...BUT MOSTLY NOW WITH HOW QUICK PRECIP CLEARS THE COAST
SAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FRI NIGHT...EXCEPT THE SE. THETA-
E ADVECTION AND MILD TEMPS WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY FRI
EVENING. SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE SHARPENING LAPSE RATES AS TEMPS
ALOFT COOL. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI EVENING. COLD
FRONT EXITS THE COAST SAT AS THE PARENT LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
LIFT INTO THE NE STATES/CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST LATE SAT...REMAINING OVER THE REGION THRU SUN. THE
RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SAT-SUN GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S INLAND
AND MID-UPPER 50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER SERN
CANADA THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE
SUN AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF BEGINS TO SPREAD BACK NWD INTO THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE WLY FLOW CROSS THE REGION. BEGIN TO
REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGHS
MON IN THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ERN SHORE
AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S. HIGHS
TUES IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LO PRES WILL MOVE FARTHER ENE INTO THE NRN ATLC THIS MORNG...WHILE
HI PRES BLDS INTO THE AREA FM THE NW. OTHER THAN SCT TO BKN SC
(2000-3000 FT) AT SBY EARLY THIS MORNG...EXPECT ONLY SCT CI AND
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THU MORNG. N WINDS 10 TO 15 KT AND GUSTY
EXPECTED THRU MIDDAY TODAY...THEN TURNING TO THE NE AND SE OR S
LATER TODAY INTO THU MORNG WHILE BECOMING LIGHT.

OUTLOOK...HI PRES MOVES OFF THE CST ON THU...AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH FM THE NW. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRI INTO
SAT MORNG...AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACRS THE REGION. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OVER NRN VA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE OH VALLEY. STRONG GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION BTWN LOW PRESSURE AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE FL COAST HAS
RESULTED IN STRONG SW WINDS OVER THE WATER THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS
GENERALLY 15-25 KT. FEW GUSTS OF 30 KT OBSERVED ON ELEVATED SITES
CLOSET TO LAND...WHERE 30 KT GUSTS ALSO OBSERVED. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3
FT AND WAVES 1-3 FT. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT NRN WATERS THIS EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPING ACROSS THE WATER AROUND MIDNIGHT. BRIEF LULL IN SCA SPEEDS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...BUT A NW CAA SURGE
EXPECTED POST FRONTAL. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-5 FT ALL COASTAL ZONES
WITH WAVES 3-4 FT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WEDS MORNING. SE SWELL
MAY KEEP SEAS HOVERING AROUND 5 FT 20 NM OUT THRU WEDS MORNING...BUT
SUBSIDING WEDS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT
WITH FLOW RETURNING TO THE S AOB 15 KT. SLY WINDS INCREASE THURS AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THURS-THURS EVENING WITH SLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT.
SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS ALSO PROGGED TO REACH 5 FT. FLOW BECOMES SW
FRI AS THE FRONT HANGS UP ALONG THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. FRONT
FINALLY CROSSES THE WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT. BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WATER THRU THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...SAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010554
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
154 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...AND GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF
THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...AND CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
APPEARS THE RAP IS BEST HANDLING ON WHAT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. MOISTURE CONTS TO INCREASE ALONG THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT AS IT IS CROSSING THE PIEDMONT LATE THIS EVE WITH EVEN SOME
LTG STRIKES SINCE 00Z. MEANWHILE...CENTER OF THE LOW NOW APPRCHG
THE LWR CHES BAY NEAR WINDMILL PT. HAVE BUMBED UP POPS FOR THE
REST OF THE EVENING WEST OF THE BAY WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
CONTG ALONG THE ERN SHORE. ADDED SLGHT CHC THUNDER TO SRN VA CNTYS
AS WELL. ADDED A FEW HOURS OF POPS TO THE ENR SHORE THRU 06Z WHERE
SHWRS PROGGED TO LINGER. WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NNW BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW OVR THE MARINE AREA. GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ARE PSBL
ONCE THIS OCCURS.

A GUST TO 48KTS AT 827 PM RESULTED IN A MINI "HEAT BURST" AT RIC
AS THE TMP JUMPED FROM 73 TO 79 DEGREES.

CONDS DRY OUT QUICKLY AFTER 06Z WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.
LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON WED. A COOLER DAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER-MID 60S FOR INTERIOR SRN VA/NE NC AND IN THE MID- UPPER 50S
CLOSER TO THE COAST AS WINDS TURN ONSHORE IN THE AFTN AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE
LATE WED NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT
IN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 MOST LOCATIONS.
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE
WITHIN A WARMING AIRMASS ESPECIALLY AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP
BY THE AFTN. MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S ONCE
AGAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID- UPPER 60S
AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. INCREASING CLOUDS THU NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND A MORE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS.
IN GENERAL...MODELS ARE SLOWER AT BRINGING IN DEEP MOISTURE AND
THE NRN STREAM AND SRN STREAM ARE SLOWER TO PHASE. HAVE SCALED
BACK A BIT ON POPS FOR FRI...LOOKS LIKE A LOW END CHC FOR MAINLY
-RA FRI MORNING...PRIMARILY ACRS NRN ZONES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. VERY MILD THU NIGHT IN SSW FLOW AND
INCRAESING CLOUDS...LOWS IN THE 50S TO POSSIBLE AS WARM AS 60 F IN
A FEW SPOTS. WARM/VARIABLY CLOUDY FRI WITH 20-30% CHC FOR -SHRA
AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY TSTMS AS THE SFC FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO
THE REGION. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 70S...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO
80F IF ENOUGH SUN CAN PREVAIL. MAIN RAIN EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL FRI NIGHT DESCRIBED IN THE LONG TERM BELOW...

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WET AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. STILL SOME MINOR SPATIAL AND TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WRT ASSOCIATED SRN STREAM ENERGY AND THE
COLD FRONT...BUT MOSTLY NOW WITH HOW QUICK PRECIP CLEARS THE COAST
SAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FRI NIGHT...EXCEPT THE SE. THETA-
E ADVECTION AND MILD TEMPS WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY FRI
EVENING. SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE SHARPENING LAPSE RATES AS TEMPS
ALOFT COOL. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI EVENING. COLD
FRONT EXITS THE COAST SAT AS THE PARENT LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
LIFT INTO THE NE STATES/CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST LATE SAT...REMAINING OVER THE REGION THRU SUN. THE
RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SAT-SUN GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S INLAND
AND MID-UPPER 50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER SERN
CANADA THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE
SUN AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF BEGINS TO SPREAD BACK NWD INTO THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE WLY FLOW CROSS THE REGION. BEGIN TO
REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGHS
MON IN THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ERN SHORE
AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S. HIGHS
TUES IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LO PRES WILL MOVE FARTHER ENE INTO THE NRN ATLC THIS MORNG...WHILE
HI PRES BLDS INTO THE AREA FM THE NW. OTHER THAN SCT TO BKN SC
(2000-3000 FT) AT SBY EARLY THIS MORNG...EXPECT ONLY SCT CI AND
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THU MORNG. N WINDS 10 TO 15 KT AND GUSTY
EXPECTED THRU MIDDAY TODAY...THEN TURNING TO THE NE AND SE OR S
LATER TODAY INTO THU MORNG WHILE BECOMING LIGHT.

OUTLOOK...HI PRES MOVES OFF THE CST ON THU...AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH FM THE NW. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRI INTO
SAT MORNG...AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACRS THE REGION. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OVER NRN VA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE OH VALLEY. STRONG GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION BTWN LOW PRESSURE AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE FL COAST HAS
RESULTED IN STRONG SW WINDS OVER THE WATER THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS
GENERALLY 15-25 KT. FEW GUSTS OF 30 KT OBSERVED ON ELEVATED SITES
CLOSET TO LAND...WHERE 30 KT GUSTS ALSO OBSERVED. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3
FT AND WAVES 1-3 FT. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT NRN WATERS THIS EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPING ACROSS THE WATER AROUND MIDNIGHT. BRIEF LULL IN SCA SPEEDS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...BUT A NW CAA SURGE
EXPECTED POST FRONTAL. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-5 FT ALL COASTAL ZONES
WITH WAVES 3-4 FT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WEDS MORNING. SE SWELL
MAY KEEP SEAS HOVERING AROUND 5 FT 20 NM OUT THRU WEDS MORNING...BUT
SUBSIDING WEDS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT
WITH FLOW RETURNING TO THE S AOB 15 KT. SLY WINDS INCREASE THURS AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THURS-THURS EVENING WITH SLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT.
SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS ALSO PROGGED TO REACH 5 FT. FLOW BECOMES SW
FRI AS THE FRONT HANGS UP ALONG THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. FRONT
FINALLY CROSSES THE WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT. BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WATER THRU THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...SAM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010554
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
154 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...AND GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF
THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...AND CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
APPEARS THE RAP IS BEST HANDLING ON WHAT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. MOISTURE CONTS TO INCREASE ALONG THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT AS IT IS CROSSING THE PIEDMONT LATE THIS EVE WITH EVEN SOME
LTG STRIKES SINCE 00Z. MEANWHILE...CENTER OF THE LOW NOW APPRCHG
THE LWR CHES BAY NEAR WINDMILL PT. HAVE BUMBED UP POPS FOR THE
REST OF THE EVENING WEST OF THE BAY WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
CONTG ALONG THE ERN SHORE. ADDED SLGHT CHC THUNDER TO SRN VA CNTYS
AS WELL. ADDED A FEW HOURS OF POPS TO THE ENR SHORE THRU 06Z WHERE
SHWRS PROGGED TO LINGER. WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NNW BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW OVR THE MARINE AREA. GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ARE PSBL
ONCE THIS OCCURS.

A GUST TO 48KTS AT 827 PM RESULTED IN A MINI "HEAT BURST" AT RIC
AS THE TMP JUMPED FROM 73 TO 79 DEGREES.

CONDS DRY OUT QUICKLY AFTER 06Z WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.
LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON WED. A COOLER DAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER-MID 60S FOR INTERIOR SRN VA/NE NC AND IN THE MID- UPPER 50S
CLOSER TO THE COAST AS WINDS TURN ONSHORE IN THE AFTN AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE
LATE WED NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT
IN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 MOST LOCATIONS.
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE
WITHIN A WARMING AIRMASS ESPECIALLY AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP
BY THE AFTN. MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S ONCE
AGAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID- UPPER 60S
AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. INCREASING CLOUDS THU NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND A MORE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS.
IN GENERAL...MODELS ARE SLOWER AT BRINGING IN DEEP MOISTURE AND
THE NRN STREAM AND SRN STREAM ARE SLOWER TO PHASE. HAVE SCALED
BACK A BIT ON POPS FOR FRI...LOOKS LIKE A LOW END CHC FOR MAINLY
-RA FRI MORNING...PRIMARILY ACRS NRN ZONES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. VERY MILD THU NIGHT IN SSW FLOW AND
INCRAESING CLOUDS...LOWS IN THE 50S TO POSSIBLE AS WARM AS 60 F IN
A FEW SPOTS. WARM/VARIABLY CLOUDY FRI WITH 20-30% CHC FOR -SHRA
AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY TSTMS AS THE SFC FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO
THE REGION. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 70S...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO
80F IF ENOUGH SUN CAN PREVAIL. MAIN RAIN EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL FRI NIGHT DESCRIBED IN THE LONG TERM BELOW...

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WET AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. STILL SOME MINOR SPATIAL AND TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WRT ASSOCIATED SRN STREAM ENERGY AND THE
COLD FRONT...BUT MOSTLY NOW WITH HOW QUICK PRECIP CLEARS THE COAST
SAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FRI NIGHT...EXCEPT THE SE. THETA-
E ADVECTION AND MILD TEMPS WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY FRI
EVENING. SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE SHARPENING LAPSE RATES AS TEMPS
ALOFT COOL. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI EVENING. COLD
FRONT EXITS THE COAST SAT AS THE PARENT LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
LIFT INTO THE NE STATES/CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST LATE SAT...REMAINING OVER THE REGION THRU SUN. THE
RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SAT-SUN GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S INLAND
AND MID-UPPER 50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER SERN
CANADA THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE
SUN AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF BEGINS TO SPREAD BACK NWD INTO THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE WLY FLOW CROSS THE REGION. BEGIN TO
REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGHS
MON IN THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ERN SHORE
AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S. HIGHS
TUES IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LO PRES WILL MOVE FARTHER ENE INTO THE NRN ATLC THIS MORNG...WHILE
HI PRES BLDS INTO THE AREA FM THE NW. OTHER THAN SCT TO BKN SC
(2000-3000 FT) AT SBY EARLY THIS MORNG...EXPECT ONLY SCT CI AND
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THU MORNG. N WINDS 10 TO 15 KT AND GUSTY
EXPECTED THRU MIDDAY TODAY...THEN TURNING TO THE NE AND SE OR S
LATER TODAY INTO THU MORNG WHILE BECOMING LIGHT.

OUTLOOK...HI PRES MOVES OFF THE CST ON THU...AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH FM THE NW. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRI INTO
SAT MORNG...AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACRS THE REGION. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OVER NRN VA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE OH VALLEY. STRONG GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION BTWN LOW PRESSURE AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE FL COAST HAS
RESULTED IN STRONG SW WINDS OVER THE WATER THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS
GENERALLY 15-25 KT. FEW GUSTS OF 30 KT OBSERVED ON ELEVATED SITES
CLOSET TO LAND...WHERE 30 KT GUSTS ALSO OBSERVED. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3
FT AND WAVES 1-3 FT. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT NRN WATERS THIS EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPING ACROSS THE WATER AROUND MIDNIGHT. BRIEF LULL IN SCA SPEEDS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...BUT A NW CAA SURGE
EXPECTED POST FRONTAL. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-5 FT ALL COASTAL ZONES
WITH WAVES 3-4 FT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WEDS MORNING. SE SWELL
MAY KEEP SEAS HOVERING AROUND 5 FT 20 NM OUT THRU WEDS MORNING...BUT
SUBSIDING WEDS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT
WITH FLOW RETURNING TO THE S AOB 15 KT. SLY WINDS INCREASE THURS AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THURS-THURS EVENING WITH SLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT.
SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS ALSO PROGGED TO REACH 5 FT. FLOW BECOMES SW
FRI AS THE FRONT HANGS UP ALONG THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. FRONT
FINALLY CROSSES THE WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT. BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WATER THRU THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...SAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010554
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
154 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...AND GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF
THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...AND CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
APPEARS THE RAP IS BEST HANDLING ON WHAT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. MOISTURE CONTS TO INCREASE ALONG THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT AS IT IS CROSSING THE PIEDMONT LATE THIS EVE WITH EVEN SOME
LTG STRIKES SINCE 00Z. MEANWHILE...CENTER OF THE LOW NOW APPRCHG
THE LWR CHES BAY NEAR WINDMILL PT. HAVE BUMBED UP POPS FOR THE
REST OF THE EVENING WEST OF THE BAY WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
CONTG ALONG THE ERN SHORE. ADDED SLGHT CHC THUNDER TO SRN VA CNTYS
AS WELL. ADDED A FEW HOURS OF POPS TO THE ENR SHORE THRU 06Z WHERE
SHWRS PROGGED TO LINGER. WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NNW BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW OVR THE MARINE AREA. GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ARE PSBL
ONCE THIS OCCURS.

A GUST TO 48KTS AT 827 PM RESULTED IN A MINI "HEAT BURST" AT RIC
AS THE TMP JUMPED FROM 73 TO 79 DEGREES.

CONDS DRY OUT QUICKLY AFTER 06Z WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.
LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON WED. A COOLER DAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER-MID 60S FOR INTERIOR SRN VA/NE NC AND IN THE MID- UPPER 50S
CLOSER TO THE COAST AS WINDS TURN ONSHORE IN THE AFTN AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE
LATE WED NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT
IN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 MOST LOCATIONS.
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE
WITHIN A WARMING AIRMASS ESPECIALLY AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP
BY THE AFTN. MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S ONCE
AGAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID- UPPER 60S
AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. INCREASING CLOUDS THU NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND A MORE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS.
IN GENERAL...MODELS ARE SLOWER AT BRINGING IN DEEP MOISTURE AND
THE NRN STREAM AND SRN STREAM ARE SLOWER TO PHASE. HAVE SCALED
BACK A BIT ON POPS FOR FRI...LOOKS LIKE A LOW END CHC FOR MAINLY
-RA FRI MORNING...PRIMARILY ACRS NRN ZONES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. VERY MILD THU NIGHT IN SSW FLOW AND
INCRAESING CLOUDS...LOWS IN THE 50S TO POSSIBLE AS WARM AS 60 F IN
A FEW SPOTS. WARM/VARIABLY CLOUDY FRI WITH 20-30% CHC FOR -SHRA
AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY TSTMS AS THE SFC FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO
THE REGION. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 70S...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO
80F IF ENOUGH SUN CAN PREVAIL. MAIN RAIN EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL FRI NIGHT DESCRIBED IN THE LONG TERM BELOW...

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WET AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. STILL SOME MINOR SPATIAL AND TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WRT ASSOCIATED SRN STREAM ENERGY AND THE
COLD FRONT...BUT MOSTLY NOW WITH HOW QUICK PRECIP CLEARS THE COAST
SAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FRI NIGHT...EXCEPT THE SE. THETA-
E ADVECTION AND MILD TEMPS WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY FRI
EVENING. SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE SHARPENING LAPSE RATES AS TEMPS
ALOFT COOL. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI EVENING. COLD
FRONT EXITS THE COAST SAT AS THE PARENT LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
LIFT INTO THE NE STATES/CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST LATE SAT...REMAINING OVER THE REGION THRU SUN. THE
RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SAT-SUN GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S INLAND
AND MID-UPPER 50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER SERN
CANADA THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE
SUN AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF BEGINS TO SPREAD BACK NWD INTO THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE WLY FLOW CROSS THE REGION. BEGIN TO
REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGHS
MON IN THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ERN SHORE
AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S. HIGHS
TUES IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LO PRES WILL MOVE FARTHER ENE INTO THE NRN ATLC THIS MORNG...WHILE
HI PRES BLDS INTO THE AREA FM THE NW. OTHER THAN SCT TO BKN SC
(2000-3000 FT) AT SBY EARLY THIS MORNG...EXPECT ONLY SCT CI AND
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THU MORNG. N WINDS 10 TO 15 KT AND GUSTY
EXPECTED THRU MIDDAY TODAY...THEN TURNING TO THE NE AND SE OR S
LATER TODAY INTO THU MORNG WHILE BECOMING LIGHT.

OUTLOOK...HI PRES MOVES OFF THE CST ON THU...AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH FM THE NW. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRI INTO
SAT MORNG...AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACRS THE REGION. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OVER NRN VA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE OH VALLEY. STRONG GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION BTWN LOW PRESSURE AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE FL COAST HAS
RESULTED IN STRONG SW WINDS OVER THE WATER THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS
GENERALLY 15-25 KT. FEW GUSTS OF 30 KT OBSERVED ON ELEVATED SITES
CLOSET TO LAND...WHERE 30 KT GUSTS ALSO OBSERVED. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3
FT AND WAVES 1-3 FT. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT NRN WATERS THIS EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPING ACROSS THE WATER AROUND MIDNIGHT. BRIEF LULL IN SCA SPEEDS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...BUT A NW CAA SURGE
EXPECTED POST FRONTAL. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-5 FT ALL COASTAL ZONES
WITH WAVES 3-4 FT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WEDS MORNING. SE SWELL
MAY KEEP SEAS HOVERING AROUND 5 FT 20 NM OUT THRU WEDS MORNING...BUT
SUBSIDING WEDS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT
WITH FLOW RETURNING TO THE S AOB 15 KT. SLY WINDS INCREASE THURS AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THURS-THURS EVENING WITH SLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT.
SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS ALSO PROGGED TO REACH 5 FT. FLOW BECOMES SW
FRI AS THE FRONT HANGS UP ALONG THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. FRONT
FINALLY CROSSES THE WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT. BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WATER THRU THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...SAM



000
FXUS61 KPHI 010536
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
136 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF
INTO THE ATLANTIC LATER OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE AWAY
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING CANADA AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE. PCPN HAS MOVED
OFFSHORE AS THE SFC LOW IS EXITING RAPIDLY TO THE EAST. SKIES ARE
CLEARING. GRADIENT WINDS THOUGH HAVE BEEN A LITTLE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE AND WE ADJUSTED THEM DOWN.

OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS ARE FCST TO DROP TO THE LOW/MID 30S OVER NRN
DELMARVA...HWVR THE START OF THE GROWING SEASON WAS POSTPONED
UNTIL APRIL 11TH FOR THE DELMARVA, NO FROST PRODUCT CONSIDERATIONS
UNTIL THEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL MEAN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND 10 MPH. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO AROUND 0C SUGGEST A FAIRLY DECENT SHOT AT
LOW 50`S FOR PHL WITH QUITE A BIT LESS SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY. MET/MAV
USED WITH MOST ELEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO APRIL`S FOOL JOKE HERE...LOOKS LIKE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SPRING- LIKE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE LONG TERM.

THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL STOP
RECHARGING ON CANADIAN COLD AIR AND UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RETURN BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH SOME RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST NEXT WEEK. THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT RAIN WILL BE THE
P-TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
LATE PART OF THE WEEK...BEFORE RETURNING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WED NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WED NIGHT AND A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THU.

THU NIGHT THRU SAT...A SUBTLE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND FRI. CHCS FOR SHOWERS INCREASE FROM THE
W THU NIGHT AND THEN A LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND
MOVES ALONG IT ACROSS OUR AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THE LOW DEEPENS
RATHER STRONGLY...SO A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN AND SCT TSTMS EXPECTED.
LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ATTM. PRECIP
TAPERS OFF FROM W TO E SAT MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THU
NIGHT THRU FRI AND THEN DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SAT.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY DRY. FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE N/W MON
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS STATES MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS OUR AREA. FOLLOWED WPC
POPS WITH MOSTLY CHC SHOWERS MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 06Z TAFS WILL BE VFR DURING THE DAY AND EVENING TODAY.

EARLY OVERNIGHT...SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL CLOUDS (MAINLY MVFR
CIGS NEAR THE COAST AND INTERIOR VALLEYS) AND LIGHT FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 08Z. AFTER THAT NO CIG OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
NORTH WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 10 KTS.

THIS MORNING...VFR WITH NO CIG EXPECTED. A CUMULUS DECK OF CLOUDS
SHOULD START FORMING. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15
KTS. WE MIGHT HAVE SOME GUSTINESS, BUT BELIEVE THEY SHOULD BE
UNDER 20 KTS AND HAVE NOT CARRIED THEM AT ANY TAF SITE.

THIS AFTERNOON...A VFR CU BASED CIG MIGHT FORM AT NORTHERN AND
PA AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. ELSEWHERE WE ARE EXPECTING THEM TO BE
SCATTERED OR LESS. WINDS SHOULD BACK EVER SO SLIGHTLY MORE TO
THE WEST WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS. NO CHANGE TO GUSTINESS THINKING.

THIS EVENING...CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT QUICKLY.
AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
EARLY THU...VFR EXPECTED.

THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING..PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS
AND A FEW TSTMS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED THE SCA INTO LOWER DELAWARE BAY, ALSO EXTENDED THE
ENDING TIME TIL 13Z/9 AM THIS MORNING.

SEAS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING AFTER
A PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SCA WIND GUSTS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BE AROUND FIVE FEET.
SUB SCA SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING ONWARD TODAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING...FAIR WEATHER. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...AMC/GAINES/GIGI/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/GIGI/JOHNSON/O`HARA



000
FXUS61 KPHI 010536
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
136 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF
INTO THE ATLANTIC LATER OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE AWAY
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING CANADA AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE. PCPN HAS MOVED
OFFSHORE AS THE SFC LOW IS EXITING RAPIDLY TO THE EAST. SKIES ARE
CLEARING. GRADIENT WINDS THOUGH HAVE BEEN A LITTLE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE AND WE ADJUSTED THEM DOWN.

OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS ARE FCST TO DROP TO THE LOW/MID 30S OVER NRN
DELMARVA...HWVR THE START OF THE GROWING SEASON WAS POSTPONED
UNTIL APRIL 11TH FOR THE DELMARVA, NO FROST PRODUCT CONSIDERATIONS
UNTIL THEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL MEAN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND 10 MPH. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO AROUND 0C SUGGEST A FAIRLY DECENT SHOT AT
LOW 50`S FOR PHL WITH QUITE A BIT LESS SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY. MET/MAV
USED WITH MOST ELEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO APRIL`S FOOL JOKE HERE...LOOKS LIKE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SPRING- LIKE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE LONG TERM.

THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL STOP
RECHARGING ON CANADIAN COLD AIR AND UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RETURN BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH SOME RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST NEXT WEEK. THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT RAIN WILL BE THE
P-TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
LATE PART OF THE WEEK...BEFORE RETURNING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WED NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WED NIGHT AND A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THU.

THU NIGHT THRU SAT...A SUBTLE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND FRI. CHCS FOR SHOWERS INCREASE FROM THE
W THU NIGHT AND THEN A LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND
MOVES ALONG IT ACROSS OUR AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THE LOW DEEPENS
RATHER STRONGLY...SO A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN AND SCT TSTMS EXPECTED.
LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ATTM. PRECIP
TAPERS OFF FROM W TO E SAT MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THU
NIGHT THRU FRI AND THEN DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SAT.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY DRY. FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE N/W MON
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS STATES MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS OUR AREA. FOLLOWED WPC
POPS WITH MOSTLY CHC SHOWERS MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 06Z TAFS WILL BE VFR DURING THE DAY AND EVENING TODAY.

EARLY OVERNIGHT...SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL CLOUDS (MAINLY MVFR
CIGS NEAR THE COAST AND INTERIOR VALLEYS) AND LIGHT FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 08Z. AFTER THAT NO CIG OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
NORTH WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 10 KTS.

THIS MORNING...VFR WITH NO CIG EXPECTED. A CUMULUS DECK OF CLOUDS
SHOULD START FORMING. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15
KTS. WE MIGHT HAVE SOME GUSTINESS, BUT BELIEVE THEY SHOULD BE
UNDER 20 KTS AND HAVE NOT CARRIED THEM AT ANY TAF SITE.

THIS AFTERNOON...A VFR CU BASED CIG MIGHT FORM AT NORTHERN AND
PA AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. ELSEWHERE WE ARE EXPECTING THEM TO BE
SCATTERED OR LESS. WINDS SHOULD BACK EVER SO SLIGHTLY MORE TO
THE WEST WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS. NO CHANGE TO GUSTINESS THINKING.

THIS EVENING...CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT QUICKLY.
AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
EARLY THU...VFR EXPECTED.

THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING..PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS
AND A FEW TSTMS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED THE SCA INTO LOWER DELAWARE BAY, ALSO EXTENDED THE
ENDING TIME TIL 13Z/9 AM THIS MORNING.

SEAS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING AFTER
A PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SCA WIND GUSTS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BE AROUND FIVE FEET.
SUB SCA SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING ONWARD TODAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING...FAIR WEATHER. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...AMC/GAINES/GIGI/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/GIGI/JOHNSON/O`HARA



000
FXUS61 KPHI 010536
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
136 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF
INTO THE ATLANTIC LATER OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE AWAY
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING CANADA AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE. PCPN HAS MOVED
OFFSHORE AS THE SFC LOW IS EXITING RAPIDLY TO THE EAST. SKIES ARE
CLEARING. GRADIENT WINDS THOUGH HAVE BEEN A LITTLE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE AND WE ADJUSTED THEM DOWN.

OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS ARE FCST TO DROP TO THE LOW/MID 30S OVER NRN
DELMARVA...HWVR THE START OF THE GROWING SEASON WAS POSTPONED
UNTIL APRIL 11TH FOR THE DELMARVA, NO FROST PRODUCT CONSIDERATIONS
UNTIL THEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL MEAN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND 10 MPH. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO AROUND 0C SUGGEST A FAIRLY DECENT SHOT AT
LOW 50`S FOR PHL WITH QUITE A BIT LESS SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY. MET/MAV
USED WITH MOST ELEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO APRIL`S FOOL JOKE HERE...LOOKS LIKE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SPRING- LIKE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE LONG TERM.

THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL STOP
RECHARGING ON CANADIAN COLD AIR AND UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RETURN BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH SOME RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST NEXT WEEK. THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT RAIN WILL BE THE
P-TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
LATE PART OF THE WEEK...BEFORE RETURNING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WED NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WED NIGHT AND A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THU.

THU NIGHT THRU SAT...A SUBTLE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND FRI. CHCS FOR SHOWERS INCREASE FROM THE
W THU NIGHT AND THEN A LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND
MOVES ALONG IT ACROSS OUR AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THE LOW DEEPENS
RATHER STRONGLY...SO A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN AND SCT TSTMS EXPECTED.
LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ATTM. PRECIP
TAPERS OFF FROM W TO E SAT MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THU
NIGHT THRU FRI AND THEN DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SAT.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY DRY. FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE N/W MON
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS STATES MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS OUR AREA. FOLLOWED WPC
POPS WITH MOSTLY CHC SHOWERS MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 06Z TAFS WILL BE VFR DURING THE DAY AND EVENING TODAY.

EARLY OVERNIGHT...SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL CLOUDS (MAINLY MVFR
CIGS NEAR THE COAST AND INTERIOR VALLEYS) AND LIGHT FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 08Z. AFTER THAT NO CIG OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
NORTH WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 10 KTS.

THIS MORNING...VFR WITH NO CIG EXPECTED. A CUMULUS DECK OF CLOUDS
SHOULD START FORMING. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15
KTS. WE MIGHT HAVE SOME GUSTINESS, BUT BELIEVE THEY SHOULD BE
UNDER 20 KTS AND HAVE NOT CARRIED THEM AT ANY TAF SITE.

THIS AFTERNOON...A VFR CU BASED CIG MIGHT FORM AT NORTHERN AND
PA AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. ELSEWHERE WE ARE EXPECTING THEM TO BE
SCATTERED OR LESS. WINDS SHOULD BACK EVER SO SLIGHTLY MORE TO
THE WEST WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS. NO CHANGE TO GUSTINESS THINKING.

THIS EVENING...CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT QUICKLY.
AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
EARLY THU...VFR EXPECTED.

THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING..PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS
AND A FEW TSTMS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED THE SCA INTO LOWER DELAWARE BAY, ALSO EXTENDED THE
ENDING TIME TIL 13Z/9 AM THIS MORNING.

SEAS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING AFTER
A PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SCA WIND GUSTS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BE AROUND FIVE FEET.
SUB SCA SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING ONWARD TODAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING...FAIR WEATHER. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...AMC/GAINES/GIGI/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/GIGI/JOHNSON/O`HARA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 010536
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
136 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF
INTO THE ATLANTIC LATER OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE AWAY
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING CANADA AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE. PCPN HAS MOVED
OFFSHORE AS THE SFC LOW IS EXITING RAPIDLY TO THE EAST. SKIES ARE
CLEARING. GRADIENT WINDS THOUGH HAVE BEEN A LITTLE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE AND WE ADJUSTED THEM DOWN.

OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS ARE FCST TO DROP TO THE LOW/MID 30S OVER NRN
DELMARVA...HWVR THE START OF THE GROWING SEASON WAS POSTPONED
UNTIL APRIL 11TH FOR THE DELMARVA, NO FROST PRODUCT CONSIDERATIONS
UNTIL THEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL MEAN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND 10 MPH. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO AROUND 0C SUGGEST A FAIRLY DECENT SHOT AT
LOW 50`S FOR PHL WITH QUITE A BIT LESS SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY. MET/MAV
USED WITH MOST ELEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO APRIL`S FOOL JOKE HERE...LOOKS LIKE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SPRING- LIKE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE LONG TERM.

THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL STOP
RECHARGING ON CANADIAN COLD AIR AND UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RETURN BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH SOME RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST NEXT WEEK. THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT RAIN WILL BE THE
P-TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
LATE PART OF THE WEEK...BEFORE RETURNING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WED NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WED NIGHT AND A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THU.

THU NIGHT THRU SAT...A SUBTLE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND FRI. CHCS FOR SHOWERS INCREASE FROM THE
W THU NIGHT AND THEN A LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND
MOVES ALONG IT ACROSS OUR AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THE LOW DEEPENS
RATHER STRONGLY...SO A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN AND SCT TSTMS EXPECTED.
LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ATTM. PRECIP
TAPERS OFF FROM W TO E SAT MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THU
NIGHT THRU FRI AND THEN DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SAT.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY DRY. FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE N/W MON
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS STATES MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS OUR AREA. FOLLOWED WPC
POPS WITH MOSTLY CHC SHOWERS MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 06Z TAFS WILL BE VFR DURING THE DAY AND EVENING TODAY.

EARLY OVERNIGHT...SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL CLOUDS (MAINLY MVFR
CIGS NEAR THE COAST AND INTERIOR VALLEYS) AND LIGHT FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 08Z. AFTER THAT NO CIG OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
NORTH WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 10 KTS.

THIS MORNING...VFR WITH NO CIG EXPECTED. A CUMULUS DECK OF CLOUDS
SHOULD START FORMING. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15
KTS. WE MIGHT HAVE SOME GUSTINESS, BUT BELIEVE THEY SHOULD BE
UNDER 20 KTS AND HAVE NOT CARRIED THEM AT ANY TAF SITE.

THIS AFTERNOON...A VFR CU BASED CIG MIGHT FORM AT NORTHERN AND
PA AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. ELSEWHERE WE ARE EXPECTING THEM TO BE
SCATTERED OR LESS. WINDS SHOULD BACK EVER SO SLIGHTLY MORE TO
THE WEST WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS. NO CHANGE TO GUSTINESS THINKING.

THIS EVENING...CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT QUICKLY.
AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
EARLY THU...VFR EXPECTED.

THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING..PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS
AND A FEW TSTMS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED THE SCA INTO LOWER DELAWARE BAY, ALSO EXTENDED THE
ENDING TIME TIL 13Z/9 AM THIS MORNING.

SEAS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING AFTER
A PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SCA WIND GUSTS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BE AROUND FIVE FEET.
SUB SCA SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING ONWARD TODAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING...FAIR WEATHER. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...AMC/GAINES/GIGI/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/GIGI/JOHNSON/O`HARA




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010428
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1228 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWERS FOR LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH BUILDING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...THOUGH A WEAK SHORTWAVE SHOULD BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TOWARD DAYBREAK. LOWS SHOULD BE SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BASED ON THE LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEYOND SOME CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AS IT PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WIND SHIFT TO THE SW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AND WHILE RIDGE WILL BE SHIFTING
TO THE EAST...THINK THAT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE ALLOWED TO
DECOUPLE. THUS...OPTED TO STAY CLOSER TO THE MOS/ECMWF VALUES AND
NOT THE WARMER NAM TEMPS.

COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MAKE IT`S APPROACH THURSDAY...WITH
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS
SHOULD...DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...BRINGING TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 60`S AND LOWER 70`S ACROSS THE REGION AS 850HPA
TEMPS APPROACH +10C. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SLOW WITH THE
BOUNDARY SO VERY LOW POPS WERE KEPT IN THE FORECAST UNTIL LATE.
HOWEVER...THE NAM AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE ECMWF...SUGGEST AN
AREA OF MOISTURE MAY BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO SOME OF THE REGION BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE PLACEMENT AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THESE SHOWERS...THOUGHT IT BEST TO JUST KEEP POPS
LOW FOR NOW. VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT
IN GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH THURSDAY AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER MAY
BE POSSIBLE LATE WITH THIN CAPE SUGGESTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS.

COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY WHEN A UPPER WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOP
AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
THE STRENGTH OF THIS LOW AND PLACEMENT BUT LIKELY TO LOW-CATEGORICAL
POPS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN ELEVATED UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES LATE FRIDAY...BUT
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM BEING AS WARM AS THEY WERE ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DRYING TREND IS INDICATED FOR THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. THE COOL DOWN
WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT THOUGH AS FLAT RIDGING IS ECMWF AND GFS
PROGGED TO BUILD AND MODERATE TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERAL VFR IS EXPECTED AT ALL PORTS UNTIL THE APPROACH OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TOWARD DAWN.  SOME MVFR STRATOCU ARE POSSIBLE AT NRN
TERMINALS WITH THAT FEATURE...WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AT OTHER
PORTS.

ALREADY LIGHT SURFACE WIND WILL BACK MORE TO THE WEST AS A HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER BUILDS OVER WEST VIRGINIA.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS SHOWERS...AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATER THURSDAY...AND INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010428
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1228 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWERS FOR LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH BUILDING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...THOUGH A WEAK SHORTWAVE SHOULD BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TOWARD DAYBREAK. LOWS SHOULD BE SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BASED ON THE LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEYOND SOME CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AS IT PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WIND SHIFT TO THE SW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AND WHILE RIDGE WILL BE SHIFTING
TO THE EAST...THINK THAT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE ALLOWED TO
DECOUPLE. THUS...OPTED TO STAY CLOSER TO THE MOS/ECMWF VALUES AND
NOT THE WARMER NAM TEMPS.

COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MAKE IT`S APPROACH THURSDAY...WITH
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS
SHOULD...DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...BRINGING TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 60`S AND LOWER 70`S ACROSS THE REGION AS 850HPA
TEMPS APPROACH +10C. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SLOW WITH THE
BOUNDARY SO VERY LOW POPS WERE KEPT IN THE FORECAST UNTIL LATE.
HOWEVER...THE NAM AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE ECMWF...SUGGEST AN
AREA OF MOISTURE MAY BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO SOME OF THE REGION BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE PLACEMENT AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THESE SHOWERS...THOUGHT IT BEST TO JUST KEEP POPS
LOW FOR NOW. VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT
IN GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH THURSDAY AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER MAY
BE POSSIBLE LATE WITH THIN CAPE SUGGESTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS.

COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY WHEN A UPPER WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOP
AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
THE STRENGTH OF THIS LOW AND PLACEMENT BUT LIKELY TO LOW-CATEGORICAL
POPS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN ELEVATED UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES LATE FRIDAY...BUT
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM BEING AS WARM AS THEY WERE ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DRYING TREND IS INDICATED FOR THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. THE COOL DOWN
WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT THOUGH AS FLAT RIDGING IS ECMWF AND GFS
PROGGED TO BUILD AND MODERATE TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERAL VFR IS EXPECTED AT ALL PORTS UNTIL THE APPROACH OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TOWARD DAWN.  SOME MVFR STRATOCU ARE POSSIBLE AT NRN
TERMINALS WITH THAT FEATURE...WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AT OTHER
PORTS.

ALREADY LIGHT SURFACE WIND WILL BACK MORE TO THE WEST AS A HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER BUILDS OVER WEST VIRGINIA.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS SHOWERS...AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATER THURSDAY...AND INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010428
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1228 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWERS FOR LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH BUILDING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...THOUGH A WEAK SHORTWAVE SHOULD BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TOWARD DAYBREAK. LOWS SHOULD BE SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BASED ON THE LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEYOND SOME CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AS IT PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WIND SHIFT TO THE SW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AND WHILE RIDGE WILL BE SHIFTING
TO THE EAST...THINK THAT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE ALLOWED TO
DECOUPLE. THUS...OPTED TO STAY CLOSER TO THE MOS/ECMWF VALUES AND
NOT THE WARMER NAM TEMPS.

COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MAKE IT`S APPROACH THURSDAY...WITH
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS
SHOULD...DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...BRINGING TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 60`S AND LOWER 70`S ACROSS THE REGION AS 850HPA
TEMPS APPROACH +10C. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SLOW WITH THE
BOUNDARY SO VERY LOW POPS WERE KEPT IN THE FORECAST UNTIL LATE.
HOWEVER...THE NAM AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE ECMWF...SUGGEST AN
AREA OF MOISTURE MAY BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO SOME OF THE REGION BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE PLACEMENT AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THESE SHOWERS...THOUGHT IT BEST TO JUST KEEP POPS
LOW FOR NOW. VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT
IN GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH THURSDAY AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER MAY
BE POSSIBLE LATE WITH THIN CAPE SUGGESTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS.

COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY WHEN A UPPER WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOP
AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
THE STRENGTH OF THIS LOW AND PLACEMENT BUT LIKELY TO LOW-CATEGORICAL
POPS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN ELEVATED UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES LATE FRIDAY...BUT
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM BEING AS WARM AS THEY WERE ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DRYING TREND IS INDICATED FOR THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. THE COOL DOWN
WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT THOUGH AS FLAT RIDGING IS ECMWF AND GFS
PROGGED TO BUILD AND MODERATE TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERAL VFR IS EXPECTED AT ALL PORTS UNTIL THE APPROACH OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TOWARD DAWN.  SOME MVFR STRATOCU ARE POSSIBLE AT NRN
TERMINALS WITH THAT FEATURE...WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AT OTHER
PORTS.

ALREADY LIGHT SURFACE WIND WILL BACK MORE TO THE WEST AS A HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER BUILDS OVER WEST VIRGINIA.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS SHOWERS...AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATER THURSDAY...AND INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010428
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1228 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWERS FOR LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH BUILDING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...THOUGH A WEAK SHORTWAVE SHOULD BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TOWARD DAYBREAK. LOWS SHOULD BE SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BASED ON THE LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEYOND SOME CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AS IT PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WIND SHIFT TO THE SW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AND WHILE RIDGE WILL BE SHIFTING
TO THE EAST...THINK THAT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE ALLOWED TO
DECOUPLE. THUS...OPTED TO STAY CLOSER TO THE MOS/ECMWF VALUES AND
NOT THE WARMER NAM TEMPS.

COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MAKE IT`S APPROACH THURSDAY...WITH
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS
SHOULD...DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...BRINGING TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 60`S AND LOWER 70`S ACROSS THE REGION AS 850HPA
TEMPS APPROACH +10C. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SLOW WITH THE
BOUNDARY SO VERY LOW POPS WERE KEPT IN THE FORECAST UNTIL LATE.
HOWEVER...THE NAM AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE ECMWF...SUGGEST AN
AREA OF MOISTURE MAY BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO SOME OF THE REGION BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE PLACEMENT AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THESE SHOWERS...THOUGHT IT BEST TO JUST KEEP POPS
LOW FOR NOW. VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT
IN GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH THURSDAY AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER MAY
BE POSSIBLE LATE WITH THIN CAPE SUGGESTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS.

COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY WHEN A UPPER WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOP
AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
THE STRENGTH OF THIS LOW AND PLACEMENT BUT LIKELY TO LOW-CATEGORICAL
POPS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN ELEVATED UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES LATE FRIDAY...BUT
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM BEING AS WARM AS THEY WERE ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DRYING TREND IS INDICATED FOR THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. THE COOL DOWN
WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT THOUGH AS FLAT RIDGING IS ECMWF AND GFS
PROGGED TO BUILD AND MODERATE TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERAL VFR IS EXPECTED AT ALL PORTS UNTIL THE APPROACH OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TOWARD DAWN.  SOME MVFR STRATOCU ARE POSSIBLE AT NRN
TERMINALS WITH THAT FEATURE...WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AT OTHER
PORTS.

ALREADY LIGHT SURFACE WIND WILL BACK MORE TO THE WEST AS A HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER BUILDS OVER WEST VIRGINIA.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS SHOWERS...AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATER THURSDAY...AND INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPHI 010423
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1223 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF
INTO THE ATLANTIC LATER OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE AWAY
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING CANADA AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE. PCPN HAS MOVED
OFFSHORE AS THE SFC LOW IS EXITING RAPIDLY TO THE EAST. SKIES ARE
CLEARING. GRADIENT WINDS THOUGH HAVE BEEN A LITTLE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE AND WE ADJUSTED THEM DOWN.

OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS ARE FCST TO DROP TO THE LOW/MID 30S OVER NRN
DELMARVA...HWVR THE START OF THE GROWING SEASON WAS POSTPONED
UNTIL APRIL 11TH FOR THE DELMARVA, NO FROST PRODUCT CONSIDERATIONS
UNTIL THEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL MEAN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND 10 MPH. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO AROUND 0C SUGGEST A FAIRLY DECENT SHOT AT
LOW 50`S FOR PHL WITH QUITE A BIT LESS SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY. MET/MAV
USED WITH MOST ELEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO APRIL`S FOOL JOKE HERE...LOOKS LIKE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SPRING- LIKE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE LONG TERM.

THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL STOP
RECHARGING ON CANADIAN COLD AIR AND UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RETURN BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH SOME RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST NEXT WEEK. THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT RAIN WILL BE THE
P-TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
LATE PART OF THE WEEK...BEFORE RETURNING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WED NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WED NIGHT AND A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THU.

THU NIGHT THRU SAT...A SUBTLE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND FRI. CHCS FOR SHOWERS INCREASE FROM THE
W THU NIGHT AND THEN A LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND
MOVES ALONG IT ACROSS OUR AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THE LOW DEEPENS
RATHER STRONGLY...SO A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN AND SCT TSTMS EXPECTED.
LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ATTM. PRECIP
TAPERS OFF FROM W TO E SAT MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THU
NIGHT THRU FRI AND THEN DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SAT.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY DRY. FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE N/W MON
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS STATES MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS OUR AREA. FOLLOWED WPC
POPS WITH MOSTLY CHC SHOWERS MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 06Z TAFS WILL BE VFR DURING THE DAY AND EVENING TODAY.

EARLY OVERNIGHT...SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL CLOUDS (MAINLY MVFR
CIGS NEAR THE COAST AND INTERIOR VALLEYS) AND LIGHT FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 08Z. AFTER THAT NO CIG OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
NORTH WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 10 KTS.

THIS MORNING...VFR WITH NO CIG EXPECTED. A CUMULUS DECK OF CLOUDS
SHOULD START FORMING. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15
KTS. WE MIGHT HAVE SOME GUSTINESS, BUT BELIEVE THEY SHOULD BE
UNDER 20 KTS AND HAVE NOT CARRIED THEM AT ANY TAF SITE.

THIS AFTERNOON...A VFR CU BASED CIG MIGHT FORM AT NORTHERN AND
PA AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. ELSEWHERE WE ARE EXPECTING THEM TO BE
SCATTERED OR LESS. WINDS SHOULD BACK EVER SO SLIGHTLY MORE TO
THE WEST WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS. NO CHANGE TO GUSTINESS THINKING.

THIS EVENING...CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT QUICKLY.
AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
EARLY THU...VFR EXPECTED.

THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING..PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS
AND A FEW TSTMS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING AFTER
A PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SCA WIND GUSTS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BE AROUND FIVE FEET.
WITH THE FRONT DEPARTING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY AROUND 10Z
WEDNESDAY. ALLOWING SCA TO EXPIRE AT THAT TIME. SUB SCA SEAS AND
WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING...FAIR WEATHER. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...AMC/GAINES/GIGI/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON/O`HARA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 010423
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1223 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF
INTO THE ATLANTIC LATER OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE AWAY
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING CANADA AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE. PCPN HAS MOVED
OFFSHORE AS THE SFC LOW IS EXITING RAPIDLY TO THE EAST. SKIES ARE
CLEARING. GRADIENT WINDS THOUGH HAVE BEEN A LITTLE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE AND WE ADJUSTED THEM DOWN.

OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS ARE FCST TO DROP TO THE LOW/MID 30S OVER NRN
DELMARVA...HWVR THE START OF THE GROWING SEASON WAS POSTPONED
UNTIL APRIL 11TH FOR THE DELMARVA, NO FROST PRODUCT CONSIDERATIONS
UNTIL THEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL MEAN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND 10 MPH. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO AROUND 0C SUGGEST A FAIRLY DECENT SHOT AT
LOW 50`S FOR PHL WITH QUITE A BIT LESS SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY. MET/MAV
USED WITH MOST ELEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO APRIL`S FOOL JOKE HERE...LOOKS LIKE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SPRING- LIKE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE LONG TERM.

THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL STOP
RECHARGING ON CANADIAN COLD AIR AND UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RETURN BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH SOME RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST NEXT WEEK. THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT RAIN WILL BE THE
P-TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
LATE PART OF THE WEEK...BEFORE RETURNING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WED NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WED NIGHT AND A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THU.

THU NIGHT THRU SAT...A SUBTLE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND FRI. CHCS FOR SHOWERS INCREASE FROM THE
W THU NIGHT AND THEN A LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND
MOVES ALONG IT ACROSS OUR AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THE LOW DEEPENS
RATHER STRONGLY...SO A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN AND SCT TSTMS EXPECTED.
LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ATTM. PRECIP
TAPERS OFF FROM W TO E SAT MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THU
NIGHT THRU FRI AND THEN DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SAT.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY DRY. FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE N/W MON
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS STATES MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS OUR AREA. FOLLOWED WPC
POPS WITH MOSTLY CHC SHOWERS MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 06Z TAFS WILL BE VFR DURING THE DAY AND EVENING TODAY.

EARLY OVERNIGHT...SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL CLOUDS (MAINLY MVFR
CIGS NEAR THE COAST AND INTERIOR VALLEYS) AND LIGHT FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 08Z. AFTER THAT NO CIG OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
NORTH WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 10 KTS.

THIS MORNING...VFR WITH NO CIG EXPECTED. A CUMULUS DECK OF CLOUDS
SHOULD START FORMING. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15
KTS. WE MIGHT HAVE SOME GUSTINESS, BUT BELIEVE THEY SHOULD BE
UNDER 20 KTS AND HAVE NOT CARRIED THEM AT ANY TAF SITE.

THIS AFTERNOON...A VFR CU BASED CIG MIGHT FORM AT NORTHERN AND
PA AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. ELSEWHERE WE ARE EXPECTING THEM TO BE
SCATTERED OR LESS. WINDS SHOULD BACK EVER SO SLIGHTLY MORE TO
THE WEST WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS. NO CHANGE TO GUSTINESS THINKING.

THIS EVENING...CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT QUICKLY.
AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
EARLY THU...VFR EXPECTED.

THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING..PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS
AND A FEW TSTMS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING AFTER
A PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SCA WIND GUSTS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BE AROUND FIVE FEET.
WITH THE FRONT DEPARTING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY AROUND 10Z
WEDNESDAY. ALLOWING SCA TO EXPIRE AT THAT TIME. SUB SCA SEAS AND
WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING...FAIR WEATHER. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...AMC/GAINES/GIGI/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON/O`HARA



000
FXUS61 KPHI 010423
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1223 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF
INTO THE ATLANTIC LATER OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE AWAY
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING CANADA AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE. PCPN HAS MOVED
OFFSHORE AS THE SFC LOW IS EXITING RAPIDLY TO THE EAST. SKIES ARE
CLEARING. GRADIENT WINDS THOUGH HAVE BEEN A LITTLE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE AND WE ADJUSTED THEM DOWN.

OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS ARE FCST TO DROP TO THE LOW/MID 30S OVER NRN
DELMARVA...HWVR THE START OF THE GROWING SEASON WAS POSTPONED
UNTIL APRIL 11TH FOR THE DELMARVA, NO FROST PRODUCT CONSIDERATIONS
UNTIL THEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL MEAN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND 10 MPH. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO AROUND 0C SUGGEST A FAIRLY DECENT SHOT AT
LOW 50`S FOR PHL WITH QUITE A BIT LESS SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY. MET/MAV
USED WITH MOST ELEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO APRIL`S FOOL JOKE HERE...LOOKS LIKE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SPRING- LIKE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE LONG TERM.

THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL STOP
RECHARGING ON CANADIAN COLD AIR AND UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RETURN BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH SOME RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST NEXT WEEK. THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT RAIN WILL BE THE
P-TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
LATE PART OF THE WEEK...BEFORE RETURNING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WED NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WED NIGHT AND A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THU.

THU NIGHT THRU SAT...A SUBTLE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND FRI. CHCS FOR SHOWERS INCREASE FROM THE
W THU NIGHT AND THEN A LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND
MOVES ALONG IT ACROSS OUR AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THE LOW DEEPENS
RATHER STRONGLY...SO A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN AND SCT TSTMS EXPECTED.
LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ATTM. PRECIP
TAPERS OFF FROM W TO E SAT MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THU
NIGHT THRU FRI AND THEN DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SAT.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY DRY. FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE N/W MON
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS STATES MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS OUR AREA. FOLLOWED WPC
POPS WITH MOSTLY CHC SHOWERS MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 06Z TAFS WILL BE VFR DURING THE DAY AND EVENING TODAY.

EARLY OVERNIGHT...SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL CLOUDS (MAINLY MVFR
CIGS NEAR THE COAST AND INTERIOR VALLEYS) AND LIGHT FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 08Z. AFTER THAT NO CIG OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
NORTH WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 10 KTS.

THIS MORNING...VFR WITH NO CIG EXPECTED. A CUMULUS DECK OF CLOUDS
SHOULD START FORMING. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15
KTS. WE MIGHT HAVE SOME GUSTINESS, BUT BELIEVE THEY SHOULD BE
UNDER 20 KTS AND HAVE NOT CARRIED THEM AT ANY TAF SITE.

THIS AFTERNOON...A VFR CU BASED CIG MIGHT FORM AT NORTHERN AND
PA AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. ELSEWHERE WE ARE EXPECTING THEM TO BE
SCATTERED OR LESS. WINDS SHOULD BACK EVER SO SLIGHTLY MORE TO
THE WEST WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS. NO CHANGE TO GUSTINESS THINKING.

THIS EVENING...CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT QUICKLY.
AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
EARLY THU...VFR EXPECTED.

THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING..PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS
AND A FEW TSTMS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING AFTER
A PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SCA WIND GUSTS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BE AROUND FIVE FEET.
WITH THE FRONT DEPARTING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY AROUND 10Z
WEDNESDAY. ALLOWING SCA TO EXPIRE AT THAT TIME. SUB SCA SEAS AND
WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING...FAIR WEATHER. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...AMC/GAINES/GIGI/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON/O`HARA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 010423
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1223 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF
INTO THE ATLANTIC LATER OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE AWAY
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING CANADA AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE. PCPN HAS MOVED
OFFSHORE AS THE SFC LOW IS EXITING RAPIDLY TO THE EAST. SKIES ARE
CLEARING. GRADIENT WINDS THOUGH HAVE BEEN A LITTLE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE AND WE ADJUSTED THEM DOWN.

OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS ARE FCST TO DROP TO THE LOW/MID 30S OVER NRN
DELMARVA...HWVR THE START OF THE GROWING SEASON WAS POSTPONED
UNTIL APRIL 11TH FOR THE DELMARVA, NO FROST PRODUCT CONSIDERATIONS
UNTIL THEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL MEAN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND 10 MPH. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO AROUND 0C SUGGEST A FAIRLY DECENT SHOT AT
LOW 50`S FOR PHL WITH QUITE A BIT LESS SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY. MET/MAV
USED WITH MOST ELEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO APRIL`S FOOL JOKE HERE...LOOKS LIKE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SPRING- LIKE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE LONG TERM.

THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL STOP
RECHARGING ON CANADIAN COLD AIR AND UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RETURN BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH SOME RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST NEXT WEEK. THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT RAIN WILL BE THE
P-TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
LATE PART OF THE WEEK...BEFORE RETURNING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WED NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WED NIGHT AND A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THU.

THU NIGHT THRU SAT...A SUBTLE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND FRI. CHCS FOR SHOWERS INCREASE FROM THE
W THU NIGHT AND THEN A LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND
MOVES ALONG IT ACROSS OUR AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THE LOW DEEPENS
RATHER STRONGLY...SO A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN AND SCT TSTMS EXPECTED.
LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ATTM. PRECIP
TAPERS OFF FROM W TO E SAT MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THU
NIGHT THRU FRI AND THEN DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SAT.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY DRY. FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE N/W MON
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS STATES MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS OUR AREA. FOLLOWED WPC
POPS WITH MOSTLY CHC SHOWERS MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 06Z TAFS WILL BE VFR DURING THE DAY AND EVENING TODAY.

EARLY OVERNIGHT...SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL CLOUDS (MAINLY MVFR
CIGS NEAR THE COAST AND INTERIOR VALLEYS) AND LIGHT FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 08Z. AFTER THAT NO CIG OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
NORTH WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 10 KTS.

THIS MORNING...VFR WITH NO CIG EXPECTED. A CUMULUS DECK OF CLOUDS
SHOULD START FORMING. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15
KTS. WE MIGHT HAVE SOME GUSTINESS, BUT BELIEVE THEY SHOULD BE
UNDER 20 KTS AND HAVE NOT CARRIED THEM AT ANY TAF SITE.

THIS AFTERNOON...A VFR CU BASED CIG MIGHT FORM AT NORTHERN AND
PA AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. ELSEWHERE WE ARE EXPECTING THEM TO BE
SCATTERED OR LESS. WINDS SHOULD BACK EVER SO SLIGHTLY MORE TO
THE WEST WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS. NO CHANGE TO GUSTINESS THINKING.

THIS EVENING...CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT QUICKLY.
AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
EARLY THU...VFR EXPECTED.

THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING..PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS
AND A FEW TSTMS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING AFTER
A PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SCA WIND GUSTS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BE AROUND FIVE FEET.
WITH THE FRONT DEPARTING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY AROUND 10Z
WEDNESDAY. ALLOWING SCA TO EXPIRE AT THAT TIME. SUB SCA SEAS AND
WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING...FAIR WEATHER. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...AMC/GAINES/GIGI/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON/O`HARA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 010423
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1223 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF
INTO THE ATLANTIC LATER OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE AWAY
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING CANADA AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE. PCPN HAS MOVED
OFFSHORE AS THE SFC LOW IS EXITING RAPIDLY TO THE EAST. SKIES ARE
CLEARING. GRADIENT WINDS THOUGH HAVE BEEN A LITTLE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE AND WE ADJUSTED THEM DOWN.

OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS ARE FCST TO DROP TO THE LOW/MID 30S OVER NRN
DELMARVA...HWVR THE START OF THE GROWING SEASON WAS POSTPONED
UNTIL APRIL 11TH FOR THE DELMARVA, NO FROST PRODUCT CONSIDERATIONS
UNTIL THEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL MEAN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND 10 MPH. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO AROUND 0C SUGGEST A FAIRLY DECENT SHOT AT
LOW 50`S FOR PHL WITH QUITE A BIT LESS SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY. MET/MAV
USED WITH MOST ELEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO APRIL`S FOOL JOKE HERE...LOOKS LIKE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SPRING- LIKE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE LONG TERM.

THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL STOP
RECHARGING ON CANADIAN COLD AIR AND UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RETURN BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH SOME RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST NEXT WEEK. THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT RAIN WILL BE THE
P-TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
LATE PART OF THE WEEK...BEFORE RETURNING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WED NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WED NIGHT AND A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THU.

THU NIGHT THRU SAT...A SUBTLE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND FRI. CHCS FOR SHOWERS INCREASE FROM THE
W THU NIGHT AND THEN A LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND
MOVES ALONG IT ACROSS OUR AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THE LOW DEEPENS
RATHER STRONGLY...SO A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN AND SCT TSTMS EXPECTED.
LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ATTM. PRECIP
TAPERS OFF FROM W TO E SAT MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THU
NIGHT THRU FRI AND THEN DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SAT.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY DRY. FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE N/W MON
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS STATES MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS OUR AREA. FOLLOWED WPC
POPS WITH MOSTLY CHC SHOWERS MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 06Z TAFS WILL BE VFR DURING THE DAY AND EVENING TODAY.

EARLY OVERNIGHT...SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL CLOUDS (MAINLY MVFR
CIGS NEAR THE COAST AND INTERIOR VALLEYS) AND LIGHT FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 08Z. AFTER THAT NO CIG OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
NORTH WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 10 KTS.

THIS MORNING...VFR WITH NO CIG EXPECTED. A CUMULUS DECK OF CLOUDS
SHOULD START FORMING. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15
KTS. WE MIGHT HAVE SOME GUSTINESS, BUT BELIEVE THEY SHOULD BE
UNDER 20 KTS AND HAVE NOT CARRIED THEM AT ANY TAF SITE.

THIS AFTERNOON...A VFR CU BASED CIG MIGHT FORM AT NORTHERN AND
PA AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. ELSEWHERE WE ARE EXPECTING THEM TO BE
SCATTERED OR LESS. WINDS SHOULD BACK EVER SO SLIGHTLY MORE TO
THE WEST WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS. NO CHANGE TO GUSTINESS THINKING.

THIS EVENING...CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT QUICKLY.
AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
EARLY THU...VFR EXPECTED.

THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING..PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS
AND A FEW TSTMS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING AFTER
A PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SCA WIND GUSTS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BE AROUND FIVE FEET.
WITH THE FRONT DEPARTING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY AROUND 10Z
WEDNESDAY. ALLOWING SCA TO EXPIRE AT THAT TIME. SUB SCA SEAS AND
WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING...FAIR WEATHER. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...AMC/GAINES/GIGI/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON/O`HARA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 010423
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1223 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF
INTO THE ATLANTIC LATER OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE AWAY
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING CANADA AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE. PCPN HAS MOVED
OFFSHORE AS THE SFC LOW IS EXITING RAPIDLY TO THE EAST. SKIES ARE
CLEARING. GRADIENT WINDS THOUGH HAVE BEEN A LITTLE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE AND WE ADJUSTED THEM DOWN.

OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS ARE FCST TO DROP TO THE LOW/MID 30S OVER NRN
DELMARVA...HWVR THE START OF THE GROWING SEASON WAS POSTPONED
UNTIL APRIL 11TH FOR THE DELMARVA, NO FROST PRODUCT CONSIDERATIONS
UNTIL THEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL MEAN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND 10 MPH. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO AROUND 0C SUGGEST A FAIRLY DECENT SHOT AT
LOW 50`S FOR PHL WITH QUITE A BIT LESS SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY. MET/MAV
USED WITH MOST ELEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO APRIL`S FOOL JOKE HERE...LOOKS LIKE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SPRING- LIKE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE LONG TERM.

THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL STOP
RECHARGING ON CANADIAN COLD AIR AND UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RETURN BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH SOME RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST NEXT WEEK. THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT RAIN WILL BE THE
P-TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
LATE PART OF THE WEEK...BEFORE RETURNING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WED NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WED NIGHT AND A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THU.

THU NIGHT THRU SAT...A SUBTLE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND FRI. CHCS FOR SHOWERS INCREASE FROM THE
W THU NIGHT AND THEN A LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND
MOVES ALONG IT ACROSS OUR AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THE LOW DEEPENS
RATHER STRONGLY...SO A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN AND SCT TSTMS EXPECTED.
LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ATTM. PRECIP
TAPERS OFF FROM W TO E SAT MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THU
NIGHT THRU FRI AND THEN DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SAT.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY DRY. FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE N/W MON
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS STATES MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS OUR AREA. FOLLOWED WPC
POPS WITH MOSTLY CHC SHOWERS MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 06Z TAFS WILL BE VFR DURING THE DAY AND EVENING TODAY.

EARLY OVERNIGHT...SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL CLOUDS (MAINLY MVFR
CIGS NEAR THE COAST AND INTERIOR VALLEYS) AND LIGHT FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 08Z. AFTER THAT NO CIG OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
NORTH WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 10 KTS.

THIS MORNING...VFR WITH NO CIG EXPECTED. A CUMULUS DECK OF CLOUDS
SHOULD START FORMING. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15
KTS. WE MIGHT HAVE SOME GUSTINESS, BUT BELIEVE THEY SHOULD BE
UNDER 20 KTS AND HAVE NOT CARRIED THEM AT ANY TAF SITE.

THIS AFTERNOON...A VFR CU BASED CIG MIGHT FORM AT NORTHERN AND
PA AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. ELSEWHERE WE ARE EXPECTING THEM TO BE
SCATTERED OR LESS. WINDS SHOULD BACK EVER SO SLIGHTLY MORE TO
THE WEST WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS. NO CHANGE TO GUSTINESS THINKING.

THIS EVENING...CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT QUICKLY.
AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
EARLY THU...VFR EXPECTED.

THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING..PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS
AND A FEW TSTMS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING AFTER
A PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SCA WIND GUSTS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BE AROUND FIVE FEET.
WITH THE FRONT DEPARTING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY AROUND 10Z
WEDNESDAY. ALLOWING SCA TO EXPIRE AT THAT TIME. SUB SCA SEAS AND
WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING...FAIR WEATHER. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...AMC/GAINES/GIGI/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON/O`HARA




000
FXUS61 KLWX 010233
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1033 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO OUR SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS BY TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY AND A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
...UPDATE TO REMOVE WIND ADVISORY FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND THE
GALE WARNING FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND
LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY OFF THE MID- ALANTIC COAST LATE
THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL VIRGINIA DURING THIS TIME. THE BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS...EVEN A FEW 20S OUT WEST
AND NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A RETURN TO SUNSHINE BUT WITH COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S TO NEAR 60 IN SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAKE ABOUT A TWO-DAY VISIT DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK...ATTEMPTING TO HANG ON THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AS ANOTHER COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE EFFECT ON
THU FROM THIS HIGH WILL BE ANOTHER WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE DAY IN TERMS
OF TEMPS. S-SW WINDS CHANNELING THRU THE VLYS OF THE APLCNS WILL
BRING TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S AND POSSIBLY SOME L80S...WHILE THE
PIEDMONT/COASTAL REGION STAYS A BIT MORE MODERATED BUT STILL NEAR
THE 70F DEG MARK BY MID AFTN.

MEANWHILE...A LARGE BUT FAIRLY DISORGANIZED FETCH OF GULF MOISTURE
WILL BE COLLECTING OVER THE MS RVR VLY AND DEEP SOUTH...AS A SERIES
OF UPPER WAVES BEGIN TO SHAPE IT WELL TO OUR WEST. A LONG
OUTSTRETCHED WARM FRONTAL REGION WILL BE SET UP TO OUR NORTH...FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST TO NEW ENGLAND AS WE HEAD INTO FRI. PLENTY OF
PRECIP WILL BE HANGING AROUND THIS BOUNDARY...STAYING LARGELY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE AREA UNTIL DAWN FRI. A WEAKER LOW PRES SYSTEM THAT
WILL DEVELOP THU NIGHT INTO FRI WILL SLIDE UP TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND...BUT A MORE POTENT LOW WILL BE FORMING OVER THE LOWER OHIO
RVR VLY. THE LOW WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH AS IT APPROACHES...BUT THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE STRENGTHENING THRU THE DAYTIME HRS. POCKETS OF
PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY...AS TEMPS RISE BACK INTO THE 60S/70S. THE COLD FRONT
WILL THEN MOVE THRU THE REGION LATE INTO THE NIGHTTIME HRS.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON WHATEVER LEFTOVER INSTABILITY
THERE IS FROM THE AFTN/EVE HEATING AND MAY COME IN TOO LATE TO
MAXIMIZE THIS POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THE LOW-MID SHEAR WILL BE POTENT
ENOUGH TO DRIVE AN ORGANIZED LINE - ALBEIT SHALLOW - BUT ENOUGH TO
MIX DOWN GUSTY WINDS IN ISOLATED AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WHILE
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE FROM NORTHERN TX/OK. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE SYSTEMS MAY BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE
CWA ENDING LATE SAT MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME UPSLOPE
PRECIP TO THE WEST MAY LAST LONGER. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO MON
NIGHT.

WINDY CONDITIONS FROM FRI INTO SAT NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR SAT NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS LATE THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...AND GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO A DEEP MIXING
LAYER.

SOLID VFR CONDS ON THU AS A LOW PRES SYSTEM APPROACHES INTO EARLY
FRI. THIS SYSTEM WILL TAKE A COUPLE OF DAYS TO PASS
COMPLETELY...W/ SOME ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY W/ A COLD FRONT
LATE FRI NIGHT AND RAIN SHOWERS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE.

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS REGION FRI NIGHT... BRINGING RAINY
CONDITIONS THROUGH SAT. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS FOR LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS UNTIL 2 AM. THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE
MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND AND THE LOWER TIDAL
POTOMAC RIVER. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS
ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY...BUT
KEPT GUSTS CAPPED AT 15 KNOTS FOR NOW DUE TO A WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT.

HIGH PRES MOVING OFFSHORE WED NIGHT INTO THU WILL CREATE PRES
GRADIENT STRONG ENOUGH FOR SCA CONDS OVER THE WATERS BOTH THU AND
FRI AFTNS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU THE REGION LATE FRI
NIGHT.

SCA LIKELY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BEHIND COLD AS WINDY CONDITIONS
DEVELOP. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS LATE SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ALL LOCATIONS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ531>534-
     537-539>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530-535-
     536-538.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL/KRW
NEAR TERM...BJL/KRW
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...IR
AVIATION...BJL/GMS/IR/KRW
MARINE...BJL/GMS/IR/KRW
FIRE WEATHER...BJL



000
FXUS61 KLWX 010233
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1033 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO OUR SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS BY TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY AND A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
...UPDATE TO REMOVE WIND ADVISORY FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND THE
GALE WARNING FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND
LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY OFF THE MID- ALANTIC COAST LATE
THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL VIRGINIA DURING THIS TIME. THE BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS...EVEN A FEW 20S OUT WEST
AND NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A RETURN TO SUNSHINE BUT WITH COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S TO NEAR 60 IN SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAKE ABOUT A TWO-DAY VISIT DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK...ATTEMPTING TO HANG ON THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AS ANOTHER COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE EFFECT ON
THU FROM THIS HIGH WILL BE ANOTHER WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE DAY IN TERMS
OF TEMPS. S-SW WINDS CHANNELING THRU THE VLYS OF THE APLCNS WILL
BRING TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S AND POSSIBLY SOME L80S...WHILE THE
PIEDMONT/COASTAL REGION STAYS A BIT MORE MODERATED BUT STILL NEAR
THE 70F DEG MARK BY MID AFTN.

MEANWHILE...A LARGE BUT FAIRLY DISORGANIZED FETCH OF GULF MOISTURE
WILL BE COLLECTING OVER THE MS RVR VLY AND DEEP SOUTH...AS A SERIES
OF UPPER WAVES BEGIN TO SHAPE IT WELL TO OUR WEST. A LONG
OUTSTRETCHED WARM FRONTAL REGION WILL BE SET UP TO OUR NORTH...FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST TO NEW ENGLAND AS WE HEAD INTO FRI. PLENTY OF
PRECIP WILL BE HANGING AROUND THIS BOUNDARY...STAYING LARGELY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE AREA UNTIL DAWN FRI. A WEAKER LOW PRES SYSTEM THAT
WILL DEVELOP THU NIGHT INTO FRI WILL SLIDE UP TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND...BUT A MORE POTENT LOW WILL BE FORMING OVER THE LOWER OHIO
RVR VLY. THE LOW WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH AS IT APPROACHES...BUT THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE STRENGTHENING THRU THE DAYTIME HRS. POCKETS OF
PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY...AS TEMPS RISE BACK INTO THE 60S/70S. THE COLD FRONT
WILL THEN MOVE THRU THE REGION LATE INTO THE NIGHTTIME HRS.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON WHATEVER LEFTOVER INSTABILITY
THERE IS FROM THE AFTN/EVE HEATING AND MAY COME IN TOO LATE TO
MAXIMIZE THIS POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THE LOW-MID SHEAR WILL BE POTENT
ENOUGH TO DRIVE AN ORGANIZED LINE - ALBEIT SHALLOW - BUT ENOUGH TO
MIX DOWN GUSTY WINDS IN ISOLATED AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WHILE
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE FROM NORTHERN TX/OK. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE SYSTEMS MAY BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE
CWA ENDING LATE SAT MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME UPSLOPE
PRECIP TO THE WEST MAY LAST LONGER. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO MON
NIGHT.

WINDY CONDITIONS FROM FRI INTO SAT NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR SAT NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS LATE THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...AND GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO A DEEP MIXING
LAYER.

SOLID VFR CONDS ON THU AS A LOW PRES SYSTEM APPROACHES INTO EARLY
FRI. THIS SYSTEM WILL TAKE A COUPLE OF DAYS TO PASS
COMPLETELY...W/ SOME ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY W/ A COLD FRONT
LATE FRI NIGHT AND RAIN SHOWERS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE.

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS REGION FRI NIGHT... BRINGING RAINY
CONDITIONS THROUGH SAT. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS FOR LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS UNTIL 2 AM. THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE
MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND AND THE LOWER TIDAL
POTOMAC RIVER. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS
ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY...BUT
KEPT GUSTS CAPPED AT 15 KNOTS FOR NOW DUE TO A WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT.

HIGH PRES MOVING OFFSHORE WED NIGHT INTO THU WILL CREATE PRES
GRADIENT STRONG ENOUGH FOR SCA CONDS OVER THE WATERS BOTH THU AND
FRI AFTNS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU THE REGION LATE FRI
NIGHT.

SCA LIKELY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BEHIND COLD AS WINDY CONDITIONS
DEVELOP. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS LATE SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ALL LOCATIONS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ531>534-
     537-539>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530-535-
     536-538.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL/KRW
NEAR TERM...BJL/KRW
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...IR
AVIATION...BJL/GMS/IR/KRW
MARINE...BJL/GMS/IR/KRW
FIRE WEATHER...BJL




000
FXUS61 KLWX 010233
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1033 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO OUR SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS BY TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY AND A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
...UPDATE TO REMOVE WIND ADVISORY FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND THE
GALE WARNING FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND
LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY OFF THE MID- ALANTIC COAST LATE
THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL VIRGINIA DURING THIS TIME. THE BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS...EVEN A FEW 20S OUT WEST
AND NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A RETURN TO SUNSHINE BUT WITH COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S TO NEAR 60 IN SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAKE ABOUT A TWO-DAY VISIT DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK...ATTEMPTING TO HANG ON THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AS ANOTHER COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE EFFECT ON
THU FROM THIS HIGH WILL BE ANOTHER WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE DAY IN TERMS
OF TEMPS. S-SW WINDS CHANNELING THRU THE VLYS OF THE APLCNS WILL
BRING TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S AND POSSIBLY SOME L80S...WHILE THE
PIEDMONT/COASTAL REGION STAYS A BIT MORE MODERATED BUT STILL NEAR
THE 70F DEG MARK BY MID AFTN.

MEANWHILE...A LARGE BUT FAIRLY DISORGANIZED FETCH OF GULF MOISTURE
WILL BE COLLECTING OVER THE MS RVR VLY AND DEEP SOUTH...AS A SERIES
OF UPPER WAVES BEGIN TO SHAPE IT WELL TO OUR WEST. A LONG
OUTSTRETCHED WARM FRONTAL REGION WILL BE SET UP TO OUR NORTH...FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST TO NEW ENGLAND AS WE HEAD INTO FRI. PLENTY OF
PRECIP WILL BE HANGING AROUND THIS BOUNDARY...STAYING LARGELY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE AREA UNTIL DAWN FRI. A WEAKER LOW PRES SYSTEM THAT
WILL DEVELOP THU NIGHT INTO FRI WILL SLIDE UP TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND...BUT A MORE POTENT LOW WILL BE FORMING OVER THE LOWER OHIO
RVR VLY. THE LOW WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH AS IT APPROACHES...BUT THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE STRENGTHENING THRU THE DAYTIME HRS. POCKETS OF
PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY...AS TEMPS RISE BACK INTO THE 60S/70S. THE COLD FRONT
WILL THEN MOVE THRU THE REGION LATE INTO THE NIGHTTIME HRS.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON WHATEVER LEFTOVER INSTABILITY
THERE IS FROM THE AFTN/EVE HEATING AND MAY COME IN TOO LATE TO
MAXIMIZE THIS POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THE LOW-MID SHEAR WILL BE POTENT
ENOUGH TO DRIVE AN ORGANIZED LINE - ALBEIT SHALLOW - BUT ENOUGH TO
MIX DOWN GUSTY WINDS IN ISOLATED AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WHILE
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE FROM NORTHERN TX/OK. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE SYSTEMS MAY BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE
CWA ENDING LATE SAT MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME UPSLOPE
PRECIP TO THE WEST MAY LAST LONGER. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO MON
NIGHT.

WINDY CONDITIONS FROM FRI INTO SAT NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR SAT NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS LATE THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...AND GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO A DEEP MIXING
LAYER.

SOLID VFR CONDS ON THU AS A LOW PRES SYSTEM APPROACHES INTO EARLY
FRI. THIS SYSTEM WILL TAKE A COUPLE OF DAYS TO PASS
COMPLETELY...W/ SOME ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY W/ A COLD FRONT
LATE FRI NIGHT AND RAIN SHOWERS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE.

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS REGION FRI NIGHT... BRINGING RAINY
CONDITIONS THROUGH SAT. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS FOR LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS UNTIL 2 AM. THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE
MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND AND THE LOWER TIDAL
POTOMAC RIVER. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS
ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY...BUT
KEPT GUSTS CAPPED AT 15 KNOTS FOR NOW DUE TO A WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT.

HIGH PRES MOVING OFFSHORE WED NIGHT INTO THU WILL CREATE PRES
GRADIENT STRONG ENOUGH FOR SCA CONDS OVER THE WATERS BOTH THU AND
FRI AFTNS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU THE REGION LATE FRI
NIGHT.

SCA LIKELY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BEHIND COLD AS WINDY CONDITIONS
DEVELOP. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS LATE SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ALL LOCATIONS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ531>534-
     537-539>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530-535-
     536-538.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL/KRW
NEAR TERM...BJL/KRW
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...IR
AVIATION...BJL/GMS/IR/KRW
MARINE...BJL/GMS/IR/KRW
FIRE WEATHER...BJL



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010134
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
934 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...AND GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF
THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...AND CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
APPEARS THE RAP IS BEST HANDLING ON WHAT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. MOISTURE CONTS TO INCREASE ALONG THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT AS IT IS CROSSING THE PIEDMONT LATE THIS EVE WITH EVEN SOME
LTG STRIKES SINCE 00Z. MEANWHILE...CENTER OF THE LOW NOW APPRCHG
THE LWR CHES BAY NEAR WINDMILL PT. HAVE BUMBED UP POPS FOR THE
REST OF THE EVENING WEST OF THE BAY WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
CONTG ALONG THE ERN SHORE. ADDED SLGHT CHC THUNDER TO SRN VA CNTYS
AS WELL. ADDED A FEW HOURS OF POPS TO THE ENR SHORE THRU 06Z WHERE
SHWRS PROGGED TO LINGER. WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NNW BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW OVR THE MARINE AREA. GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ARE PSBL
ONCE THIS OCCURS.

A GUST TO 48KTS AT 827 PM RESULTED IN A MINI "HEAT BURST" AT RIC
AS THE TMP JUMPED FROM 73 TO 79 DEGREES.

CONDS DRY OUT QUICKLY AFTER 06Z WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.
LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON WED. A COOLER DAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER-MID 60S FOR INTERIOR SRN VA/NE NC AND IN THE MID- UPPER 50S
CLOSER TO THE COAST AS WINDS TURN ONSHORE IN THE AFTN AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE
LATE WED NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT
IN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 MOST LOCATIONS.
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE
WITHIN A WARMING AIRMASS ESPECIALLY AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP
BY THE AFTN. MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S ONCE
AGAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID- UPPER 60S
AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. INCREASING CLOUDS THU NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND A MORE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS.
IN GENERAL...MODELS ARE SLOWER AT BRINGING IN DEEP MOISTURE AND
THE NRN STREAM AND SRN STREAM ARE SLOWER TO PHASE. HAVE SCALED
BACK A BIT ON POPS FOR FRI...LOOKS LIKE A LOW END CHC FOR MAINLY
-RA FRI MORNING...PRIMARILY ACRS NRN ZONES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. VERY MILD THU NIGHT IN SSW FLOW AND
INCRAESING CLOUDS...LOWS IN THE 50S TO POSSIBLE AS WARM AS 60 F IN
A FEW SPOTS. WARM/VARIABLY CLOUDY FRI WITH 20-30% CHC FOR -SHRA
AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY TSTMS AS THE SFC FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO
THE REGION. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 70S...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO
80F IF ENOUGH SUN CAN PREVAIL. MAIN RAIN EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL FRI NIGHT DESCRIBED IN THE LONG TERM BELOW...

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WET AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. STILL SOME MINOR SPATIAL AND TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WRT ASSOCIATED SRN STREAM ENERGY AND THE
COLD FRONT...BUT MOSTLY NOW WITH HOW QUICK PRECIP CLEARS THE COAST
SAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FRI NIGHT...EXCEPT THE SE. THETA-
E ADVECTION AND MILD TEMPS WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY FRI
EVENING. SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE SHARPENING LAPSE RATES AS TEMPS
ALOFT COOL. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI EVENING. COLD
FRONT EXITS THE COAST SAT AS THE PARENT LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
LIFT INTO THE NE STATES/CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST LATE SAT...REMAINING OVER THE REGION THRU SUN. THE
RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SAT-SUN GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S INLAND
AND MID-UPPER 50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER SERN
CANADA THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE
SUN AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF BEGINS TO SPREAD BACK NWD INTO THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE WLY FLOW CROSS THE REGION. BEGIN TO
REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGHS
MON IN THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ERN SHORE
AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S. HIGHS
TUES IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHWARD
MOVEMENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING. WINDS
SHIFT TO NW DURING THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD AND
BECOME GUSTY TOWARD THE COAST. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT MAINLY OVER NRN PORTIONS. SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS AT SBY. THE SKY CLEARS QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. NORTH WINDS CONTINUE
ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER RETURNS
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OVER NRN VA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE OH VALLEY. STRONG GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION BTWN LOW PRESSURE AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE FL COAST HAS
RESULTED IN STRONG SW WINDS OVER THE WATER THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS
GENERALLY 15-25 KT. FEW GUSTS OF 30 KT OBSERVED ON ELEVATED SITES
CLOSET TO LAND...WHERE 30 KT GUSTS ALSO OBSERVED. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3
FT AND WAVES 1-3 FT. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT NRN WATERS THIS EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPING ACROSS THE WATER AROUND MIDNIGHT. BRIEF LULL IN SCA SPEEDS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...BUT A NW CAA SURGE
EXPECTED POST FRONTAL. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-5 FT ALL COASTAL ZONES
WITH WAVES 3-4 FT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WEDS MORNING. SE SWELL
MAY KEEP SEAS HOVERING AROUND 5 FT 20 NM OUT THRU WEDS MORNING...BUT
SUBSIDING WEDS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT
WITH FLOW RETURNING TO THE S AOB 15 KT. SLY WINDS INCREASE THURS AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THURS-THURS EVENING WITH SLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT.
SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS ALSO PROGGED TO REACH 5 FT. FLOW BECOMES SW
FRI AS THE FRONT HANGS UP ALONG THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. FRONT
FINALLY CROSSES THE WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT. BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WATER THRU THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB/MPR
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...ALB/SAM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010134
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
934 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...AND GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF
THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...AND CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
APPEARS THE RAP IS BEST HANDLING ON WHAT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. MOISTURE CONTS TO INCREASE ALONG THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT AS IT IS CROSSING THE PIEDMONT LATE THIS EVE WITH EVEN SOME
LTG STRIKES SINCE 00Z. MEANWHILE...CENTER OF THE LOW NOW APPRCHG
THE LWR CHES BAY NEAR WINDMILL PT. HAVE BUMBED UP POPS FOR THE
REST OF THE EVENING WEST OF THE BAY WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
CONTG ALONG THE ERN SHORE. ADDED SLGHT CHC THUNDER TO SRN VA CNTYS
AS WELL. ADDED A FEW HOURS OF POPS TO THE ENR SHORE THRU 06Z WHERE
SHWRS PROGGED TO LINGER. WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NNW BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW OVR THE MARINE AREA. GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ARE PSBL
ONCE THIS OCCURS.

A GUST TO 48KTS AT 827 PM RESULTED IN A MINI "HEAT BURST" AT RIC
AS THE TMP JUMPED FROM 73 TO 79 DEGREES.

CONDS DRY OUT QUICKLY AFTER 06Z WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.
LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON WED. A COOLER DAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER-MID 60S FOR INTERIOR SRN VA/NE NC AND IN THE MID- UPPER 50S
CLOSER TO THE COAST AS WINDS TURN ONSHORE IN THE AFTN AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE
LATE WED NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT
IN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 MOST LOCATIONS.
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE
WITHIN A WARMING AIRMASS ESPECIALLY AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP
BY THE AFTN. MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S ONCE
AGAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID- UPPER 60S
AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. INCREASING CLOUDS THU NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND A MORE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS.
IN GENERAL...MODELS ARE SLOWER AT BRINGING IN DEEP MOISTURE AND
THE NRN STREAM AND SRN STREAM ARE SLOWER TO PHASE. HAVE SCALED
BACK A BIT ON POPS FOR FRI...LOOKS LIKE A LOW END CHC FOR MAINLY
-RA FRI MORNING...PRIMARILY ACRS NRN ZONES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. VERY MILD THU NIGHT IN SSW FLOW AND
INCRAESING CLOUDS...LOWS IN THE 50S TO POSSIBLE AS WARM AS 60 F IN
A FEW SPOTS. WARM/VARIABLY CLOUDY FRI WITH 20-30% CHC FOR -SHRA
AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY TSTMS AS THE SFC FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO
THE REGION. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 70S...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO
80F IF ENOUGH SUN CAN PREVAIL. MAIN RAIN EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL FRI NIGHT DESCRIBED IN THE LONG TERM BELOW...

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WET AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. STILL SOME MINOR SPATIAL AND TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WRT ASSOCIATED SRN STREAM ENERGY AND THE
COLD FRONT...BUT MOSTLY NOW WITH HOW QUICK PRECIP CLEARS THE COAST
SAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FRI NIGHT...EXCEPT THE SE. THETA-
E ADVECTION AND MILD TEMPS WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY FRI
EVENING. SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE SHARPENING LAPSE RATES AS TEMPS
ALOFT COOL. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI EVENING. COLD
FRONT EXITS THE COAST SAT AS THE PARENT LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
LIFT INTO THE NE STATES/CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST LATE SAT...REMAINING OVER THE REGION THRU SUN. THE
RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SAT-SUN GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S INLAND
AND MID-UPPER 50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER SERN
CANADA THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE
SUN AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF BEGINS TO SPREAD BACK NWD INTO THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE WLY FLOW CROSS THE REGION. BEGIN TO
REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGHS
MON IN THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ERN SHORE
AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S. HIGHS
TUES IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHWARD
MOVEMENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING. WINDS
SHIFT TO NW DURING THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD AND
BECOME GUSTY TOWARD THE COAST. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT MAINLY OVER NRN PORTIONS. SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS AT SBY. THE SKY CLEARS QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. NORTH WINDS CONTINUE
ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER RETURNS
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OVER NRN VA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE OH VALLEY. STRONG GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION BTWN LOW PRESSURE AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE FL COAST HAS
RESULTED IN STRONG SW WINDS OVER THE WATER THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS
GENERALLY 15-25 KT. FEW GUSTS OF 30 KT OBSERVED ON ELEVATED SITES
CLOSET TO LAND...WHERE 30 KT GUSTS ALSO OBSERVED. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3
FT AND WAVES 1-3 FT. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT NRN WATERS THIS EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPING ACROSS THE WATER AROUND MIDNIGHT. BRIEF LULL IN SCA SPEEDS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...BUT A NW CAA SURGE
EXPECTED POST FRONTAL. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-5 FT ALL COASTAL ZONES
WITH WAVES 3-4 FT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WEDS MORNING. SE SWELL
MAY KEEP SEAS HOVERING AROUND 5 FT 20 NM OUT THRU WEDS MORNING...BUT
SUBSIDING WEDS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT
WITH FLOW RETURNING TO THE S AOB 15 KT. SLY WINDS INCREASE THURS AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THURS-THURS EVENING WITH SLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT.
SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS ALSO PROGGED TO REACH 5 FT. FLOW BECOMES SW
FRI AS THE FRONT HANGS UP ALONG THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. FRONT
FINALLY CROSSES THE WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT. BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WATER THRU THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB/MPR
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...ALB/SAM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010134
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
934 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...AND GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF
THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...AND CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
APPEARS THE RAP IS BEST HANDLING ON WHAT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. MOISTURE CONTS TO INCREASE ALONG THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT AS IT IS CROSSING THE PIEDMONT LATE THIS EVE WITH EVEN SOME
LTG STRIKES SINCE 00Z. MEANWHILE...CENTER OF THE LOW NOW APPRCHG
THE LWR CHES BAY NEAR WINDMILL PT. HAVE BUMBED UP POPS FOR THE
REST OF THE EVENING WEST OF THE BAY WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
CONTG ALONG THE ERN SHORE. ADDED SLGHT CHC THUNDER TO SRN VA CNTYS
AS WELL. ADDED A FEW HOURS OF POPS TO THE ENR SHORE THRU 06Z WHERE
SHWRS PROGGED TO LINGER. WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NNW BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW OVR THE MARINE AREA. GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ARE PSBL
ONCE THIS OCCURS.

A GUST TO 48KTS AT 827 PM RESULTED IN A MINI "HEAT BURST" AT RIC
AS THE TMP JUMPED FROM 73 TO 79 DEGREES.

CONDS DRY OUT QUICKLY AFTER 06Z WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.
LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON WED. A COOLER DAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER-MID 60S FOR INTERIOR SRN VA/NE NC AND IN THE MID- UPPER 50S
CLOSER TO THE COAST AS WINDS TURN ONSHORE IN THE AFTN AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE
LATE WED NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT
IN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 MOST LOCATIONS.
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE
WITHIN A WARMING AIRMASS ESPECIALLY AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP
BY THE AFTN. MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S ONCE
AGAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID- UPPER 60S
AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. INCREASING CLOUDS THU NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND A MORE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS.
IN GENERAL...MODELS ARE SLOWER AT BRINGING IN DEEP MOISTURE AND
THE NRN STREAM AND SRN STREAM ARE SLOWER TO PHASE. HAVE SCALED
BACK A BIT ON POPS FOR FRI...LOOKS LIKE A LOW END CHC FOR MAINLY
-RA FRI MORNING...PRIMARILY ACRS NRN ZONES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. VERY MILD THU NIGHT IN SSW FLOW AND
INCRAESING CLOUDS...LOWS IN THE 50S TO POSSIBLE AS WARM AS 60 F IN
A FEW SPOTS. WARM/VARIABLY CLOUDY FRI WITH 20-30% CHC FOR -SHRA
AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY TSTMS AS THE SFC FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO
THE REGION. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 70S...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO
80F IF ENOUGH SUN CAN PREVAIL. MAIN RAIN EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL FRI NIGHT DESCRIBED IN THE LONG TERM BELOW...

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WET AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. STILL SOME MINOR SPATIAL AND TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WRT ASSOCIATED SRN STREAM ENERGY AND THE
COLD FRONT...BUT MOSTLY NOW WITH HOW QUICK PRECIP CLEARS THE COAST
SAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FRI NIGHT...EXCEPT THE SE. THETA-
E ADVECTION AND MILD TEMPS WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY FRI
EVENING. SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE SHARPENING LAPSE RATES AS TEMPS
ALOFT COOL. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI EVENING. COLD
FRONT EXITS THE COAST SAT AS THE PARENT LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
LIFT INTO THE NE STATES/CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST LATE SAT...REMAINING OVER THE REGION THRU SUN. THE
RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SAT-SUN GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S INLAND
AND MID-UPPER 50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER SERN
CANADA THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE
SUN AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF BEGINS TO SPREAD BACK NWD INTO THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE WLY FLOW CROSS THE REGION. BEGIN TO
REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGHS
MON IN THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ERN SHORE
AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S. HIGHS
TUES IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHWARD
MOVEMENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING. WINDS
SHIFT TO NW DURING THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD AND
BECOME GUSTY TOWARD THE COAST. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT MAINLY OVER NRN PORTIONS. SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS AT SBY. THE SKY CLEARS QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. NORTH WINDS CONTINUE
ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER RETURNS
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OVER NRN VA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE OH VALLEY. STRONG GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION BTWN LOW PRESSURE AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE FL COAST HAS
RESULTED IN STRONG SW WINDS OVER THE WATER THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS
GENERALLY 15-25 KT. FEW GUSTS OF 30 KT OBSERVED ON ELEVATED SITES
CLOSET TO LAND...WHERE 30 KT GUSTS ALSO OBSERVED. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3
FT AND WAVES 1-3 FT. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT NRN WATERS THIS EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPING ACROSS THE WATER AROUND MIDNIGHT. BRIEF LULL IN SCA SPEEDS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...BUT A NW CAA SURGE
EXPECTED POST FRONTAL. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-5 FT ALL COASTAL ZONES
WITH WAVES 3-4 FT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WEDS MORNING. SE SWELL
MAY KEEP SEAS HOVERING AROUND 5 FT 20 NM OUT THRU WEDS MORNING...BUT
SUBSIDING WEDS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT
WITH FLOW RETURNING TO THE S AOB 15 KT. SLY WINDS INCREASE THURS AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THURS-THURS EVENING WITH SLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT.
SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS ALSO PROGGED TO REACH 5 FT. FLOW BECOMES SW
FRI AS THE FRONT HANGS UP ALONG THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. FRONT
FINALLY CROSSES THE WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT. BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WATER THRU THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB/MPR
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...ALB/SAM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010134
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
934 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...AND GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF
THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...AND CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
APPEARS THE RAP IS BEST HANDLING ON WHAT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. MOISTURE CONTS TO INCREASE ALONG THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT AS IT IS CROSSING THE PIEDMONT LATE THIS EVE WITH EVEN SOME
LTG STRIKES SINCE 00Z. MEANWHILE...CENTER OF THE LOW NOW APPRCHG
THE LWR CHES BAY NEAR WINDMILL PT. HAVE BUMBED UP POPS FOR THE
REST OF THE EVENING WEST OF THE BAY WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
CONTG ALONG THE ERN SHORE. ADDED SLGHT CHC THUNDER TO SRN VA CNTYS
AS WELL. ADDED A FEW HOURS OF POPS TO THE ENR SHORE THRU 06Z WHERE
SHWRS PROGGED TO LINGER. WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NNW BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW OVR THE MARINE AREA. GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ARE PSBL
ONCE THIS OCCURS.

A GUST TO 48KTS AT 827 PM RESULTED IN A MINI "HEAT BURST" AT RIC
AS THE TMP JUMPED FROM 73 TO 79 DEGREES.

CONDS DRY OUT QUICKLY AFTER 06Z WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.
LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON WED. A COOLER DAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER-MID 60S FOR INTERIOR SRN VA/NE NC AND IN THE MID- UPPER 50S
CLOSER TO THE COAST AS WINDS TURN ONSHORE IN THE AFTN AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE
LATE WED NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT
IN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 MOST LOCATIONS.
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE
WITHIN A WARMING AIRMASS ESPECIALLY AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP
BY THE AFTN. MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S ONCE
AGAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID- UPPER 60S
AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. INCREASING CLOUDS THU NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND A MORE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS.
IN GENERAL...MODELS ARE SLOWER AT BRINGING IN DEEP MOISTURE AND
THE NRN STREAM AND SRN STREAM ARE SLOWER TO PHASE. HAVE SCALED
BACK A BIT ON POPS FOR FRI...LOOKS LIKE A LOW END CHC FOR MAINLY
-RA FRI MORNING...PRIMARILY ACRS NRN ZONES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. VERY MILD THU NIGHT IN SSW FLOW AND
INCRAESING CLOUDS...LOWS IN THE 50S TO POSSIBLE AS WARM AS 60 F IN
A FEW SPOTS. WARM/VARIABLY CLOUDY FRI WITH 20-30% CHC FOR -SHRA
AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY TSTMS AS THE SFC FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO
THE REGION. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 70S...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO
80F IF ENOUGH SUN CAN PREVAIL. MAIN RAIN EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL FRI NIGHT DESCRIBED IN THE LONG TERM BELOW...

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WET AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. STILL SOME MINOR SPATIAL AND TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WRT ASSOCIATED SRN STREAM ENERGY AND THE
COLD FRONT...BUT MOSTLY NOW WITH HOW QUICK PRECIP CLEARS THE COAST
SAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FRI NIGHT...EXCEPT THE SE. THETA-
E ADVECTION AND MILD TEMPS WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY FRI
EVENING. SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE SHARPENING LAPSE RATES AS TEMPS
ALOFT COOL. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI EVENING. COLD
FRONT EXITS THE COAST SAT AS THE PARENT LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
LIFT INTO THE NE STATES/CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST LATE SAT...REMAINING OVER THE REGION THRU SUN. THE
RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SAT-SUN GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S INLAND
AND MID-UPPER 50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER SERN
CANADA THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE
SUN AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF BEGINS TO SPREAD BACK NWD INTO THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE WLY FLOW CROSS THE REGION. BEGIN TO
REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGHS
MON IN THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ERN SHORE
AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S. HIGHS
TUES IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHWARD
MOVEMENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING. WINDS
SHIFT TO NW DURING THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD AND
BECOME GUSTY TOWARD THE COAST. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT MAINLY OVER NRN PORTIONS. SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS AT SBY. THE SKY CLEARS QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. NORTH WINDS CONTINUE
ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER RETURNS
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OVER NRN VA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE OH VALLEY. STRONG GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION BTWN LOW PRESSURE AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE FL COAST HAS
RESULTED IN STRONG SW WINDS OVER THE WATER THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS
GENERALLY 15-25 KT. FEW GUSTS OF 30 KT OBSERVED ON ELEVATED SITES
CLOSET TO LAND...WHERE 30 KT GUSTS ALSO OBSERVED. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3
FT AND WAVES 1-3 FT. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT NRN WATERS THIS EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPING ACROSS THE WATER AROUND MIDNIGHT. BRIEF LULL IN SCA SPEEDS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...BUT A NW CAA SURGE
EXPECTED POST FRONTAL. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-5 FT ALL COASTAL ZONES
WITH WAVES 3-4 FT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WEDS MORNING. SE SWELL
MAY KEEP SEAS HOVERING AROUND 5 FT 20 NM OUT THRU WEDS MORNING...BUT
SUBSIDING WEDS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT
WITH FLOW RETURNING TO THE S AOB 15 KT. SLY WINDS INCREASE THURS AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THURS-THURS EVENING WITH SLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT.
SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS ALSO PROGGED TO REACH 5 FT. FLOW BECOMES SW
FRI AS THE FRONT HANGS UP ALONG THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. FRONT
FINALLY CROSSES THE WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT. BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WATER THRU THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB/MPR
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...ALB/SAM



000
FXUS61 KPHI 010102
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
902 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF
INTO THE ATLANTIC LATER OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE AWAY
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING CANADA AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF MID EVENING...SFC LOW PRES CENTER CONTS TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS
THE LOWER CHES BAY WHILE THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROF IS MOVG
THROUGH ERN PA. SEVERAL BANDS OF PRECIP...MOSTLY RAIN ATTM...ARE
MOVG THROUGH SE PA...NJ AND DELMARVA. RAIN AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT, JUST
A FEW HUNDRETHS PER HOUR. A FEW CG LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN
DETECTED OVER NJ INDICATING SOME INSTBY ABOVETHE SFC. FARTHER N...
WE HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL SNOW REPORTS FROM THE HIGHER POCONOS OF
GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES. ALL PRECIP IS MOVG EWD AND SHOULD CLEAR
THE COAST BY MIDNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE FAIR OVERNIGHT...BUT AS THE
SFC LOW MOVES OFFSHORE SOME GUST WINDS MAY DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE SHORE.

OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS ARE FCST TO DROP TO THE LOW/MID 30S OVER NRN
DELMARVA...HWVR THE START OF THE GROWING SEASON WAS POSTPONED
UNTIL APRIL 11TH FOR THE DELMARVA, NO FROST PRODUCT CONSIDERATIONS
UNTIL THEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL MEAN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND 10 MPH. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO AROUND 0C SUGGEST A FAIRLY DECENT SHOT AT
LOW 50`S FOR PHL WITH QUITE A BIT LESS SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY. MET/MAV
USED WITH MOST ELEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO APRIL`S FOOL JOKE HERE...LOOKS LIKE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SPRING- LIKE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE LONG TERM.

THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL STOP
RECHARGING ON CANADIAN COLD AIR AND UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RETURN BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH SOME RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST NEXT WEEK. THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT RAIN WILL BE THE
P-TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
LATE PART OF THE WEEK...BEFORE RETURNING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WED NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WED NIGHT AND A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THU.

THU NIGHT THRU SAT...A SUBTLE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND FRI. CHCS FOR SHOWERS INCREASE FROM THE
W THU NIGHT AND THEN A LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND
MOVES ALONG IT ACROSS OUR AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THE LOW DEEPENS
RATHER STRONGLY...SO A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN AND SCT TSTMS EXPECTED.
LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ATTM. PRECIP
TAPERS OFF FROM W TO E SAT MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THU
NIGHT THRU FRI AND THEN DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SAT.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY DRY. FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE N/W MON
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS STATES MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS OUR AREA. FOLLOWED WPC
POPS WITH MOSTLY CHC SHOWERS MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION
IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND
SURROUNDING AREAS.

AS OF MID EVENING...PRECIP IS MOVG ACROSS THE AREA PRETTY MUCH ON
SCHEDULE AND IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE OFFSHORE BY 04Z. PRECIP IS
LIGHT AND IS JUST CAUSING OCNL MVFR CONDS. LOW CLOUDS WILL
PROBABLY HANG AROUND A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER PRECIP ENDS BUT SKIES
SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. NLY WINDS WILL CONTNUE
OVERNIGHT IN THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW MOVG OFFSHORE AND
HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR ONCE THE RAIN ARRIVES, AS
LATE AS 22Z FOR ACY. THIS WILL BE A QUICK SHOT OF RAIN, MAINLY LIGHT
AND END BY 04Z ACROSS THE REGION. POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN MAY
RESULT IN BRIEF INTERVALS OF IFR CEILINGS WHICH WILL BE ADDED AS
NEEDED TO THE TAFS. THE RAIN MAY END BY 02Z WEST OF PHL. CEILINGS
WILL IMPROVE AFTER THE RAIN ENDS TO VFR BY SUNRISE. WINDS WILL ALSO
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
THIS EVENING WITH SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. ISOLATED WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU...VFR EXPECTED.
THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING..PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS
    AND A FEW TSTMS FRI/FRI NIGHT.
SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING AFTER
A PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SCA WIND GUSTS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BE AROUND FIVE FEET.
WITH THE FRONT DEPARTING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY AROUND 10Z
WEDNESDAY. ALLOWING SCA TO EXPIRE AT THAT TIME. SUB SCA SEAS AND
WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING...FAIR WEATHER. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...AMC/GAINES/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...AMC/GAINES/JOHNSON/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON/O`HARA



000
FXUS61 KPHI 010102
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
902 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF
INTO THE ATLANTIC LATER OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE AWAY
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING CANADA AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF MID EVENING...SFC LOW PRES CENTER CONTS TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS
THE LOWER CHES BAY WHILE THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROF IS MOVG
THROUGH ERN PA. SEVERAL BANDS OF PRECIP...MOSTLY RAIN ATTM...ARE
MOVG THROUGH SE PA...NJ AND DELMARVA. RAIN AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT, JUST
A FEW HUNDRETHS PER HOUR. A FEW CG LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN
DETECTED OVER NJ INDICATING SOME INSTBY ABOVETHE SFC. FARTHER N...
WE HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL SNOW REPORTS FROM THE HIGHER POCONOS OF
GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES. ALL PRECIP IS MOVG EWD AND SHOULD CLEAR
THE COAST BY MIDNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE FAIR OVERNIGHT...BUT AS THE
SFC LOW MOVES OFFSHORE SOME GUST WINDS MAY DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE SHORE.

OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS ARE FCST TO DROP TO THE LOW/MID 30S OVER NRN
DELMARVA...HWVR THE START OF THE GROWING SEASON WAS POSTPONED
UNTIL APRIL 11TH FOR THE DELMARVA, NO FROST PRODUCT CONSIDERATIONS
UNTIL THEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL MEAN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND 10 MPH. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO AROUND 0C SUGGEST A FAIRLY DECENT SHOT AT
LOW 50`S FOR PHL WITH QUITE A BIT LESS SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY. MET/MAV
USED WITH MOST ELEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO APRIL`S FOOL JOKE HERE...LOOKS LIKE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SPRING- LIKE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE LONG TERM.

THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL STOP
RECHARGING ON CANADIAN COLD AIR AND UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RETURN BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH SOME RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST NEXT WEEK. THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT RAIN WILL BE THE
P-TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
LATE PART OF THE WEEK...BEFORE RETURNING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WED NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WED NIGHT AND A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THU.

THU NIGHT THRU SAT...A SUBTLE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND FRI. CHCS FOR SHOWERS INCREASE FROM THE
W THU NIGHT AND THEN A LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND
MOVES ALONG IT ACROSS OUR AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THE LOW DEEPENS
RATHER STRONGLY...SO A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN AND SCT TSTMS EXPECTED.
LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ATTM. PRECIP
TAPERS OFF FROM W TO E SAT MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THU
NIGHT THRU FRI AND THEN DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SAT.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY DRY. FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE N/W MON
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS STATES MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS OUR AREA. FOLLOWED WPC
POPS WITH MOSTLY CHC SHOWERS MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION
IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND
SURROUNDING AREAS.

AS OF MID EVENING...PRECIP IS MOVG ACROSS THE AREA PRETTY MUCH ON
SCHEDULE AND IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE OFFSHORE BY 04Z. PRECIP IS
LIGHT AND IS JUST CAUSING OCNL MVFR CONDS. LOW CLOUDS WILL
PROBABLY HANG AROUND A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER PRECIP ENDS BUT SKIES
SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. NLY WINDS WILL CONTNUE
OVERNIGHT IN THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW MOVG OFFSHORE AND
HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR ONCE THE RAIN ARRIVES, AS
LATE AS 22Z FOR ACY. THIS WILL BE A QUICK SHOT OF RAIN, MAINLY LIGHT
AND END BY 04Z ACROSS THE REGION. POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN MAY
RESULT IN BRIEF INTERVALS OF IFR CEILINGS WHICH WILL BE ADDED AS
NEEDED TO THE TAFS. THE RAIN MAY END BY 02Z WEST OF PHL. CEILINGS
WILL IMPROVE AFTER THE RAIN ENDS TO VFR BY SUNRISE. WINDS WILL ALSO
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
THIS EVENING WITH SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. ISOLATED WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU...VFR EXPECTED.
THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING..PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS
    AND A FEW TSTMS FRI/FRI NIGHT.
SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING AFTER
A PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SCA WIND GUSTS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BE AROUND FIVE FEET.
WITH THE FRONT DEPARTING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY AROUND 10Z
WEDNESDAY. ALLOWING SCA TO EXPIRE AT THAT TIME. SUB SCA SEAS AND
WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING...FAIR WEATHER. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...AMC/GAINES/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...AMC/GAINES/JOHNSON/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON/O`HARA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 010102
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
902 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF
INTO THE ATLANTIC LATER OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE AWAY
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING CANADA AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF MID EVENING...SFC LOW PRES CENTER CONTS TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS
THE LOWER CHES BAY WHILE THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROF IS MOVG
THROUGH ERN PA. SEVERAL BANDS OF PRECIP...MOSTLY RAIN ATTM...ARE
MOVG THROUGH SE PA...NJ AND DELMARVA. RAIN AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT, JUST
A FEW HUNDRETHS PER HOUR. A FEW CG LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN
DETECTED OVER NJ INDICATING SOME INSTBY ABOVETHE SFC. FARTHER N...
WE HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL SNOW REPORTS FROM THE HIGHER POCONOS OF
GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES. ALL PRECIP IS MOVG EWD AND SHOULD CLEAR
THE COAST BY MIDNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE FAIR OVERNIGHT...BUT AS THE
SFC LOW MOVES OFFSHORE SOME GUST WINDS MAY DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE SHORE.

OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS ARE FCST TO DROP TO THE LOW/MID 30S OVER NRN
DELMARVA...HWVR THE START OF THE GROWING SEASON WAS POSTPONED
UNTIL APRIL 11TH FOR THE DELMARVA, NO FROST PRODUCT CONSIDERATIONS
UNTIL THEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL MEAN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND 10 MPH. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO AROUND 0C SUGGEST A FAIRLY DECENT SHOT AT
LOW 50`S FOR PHL WITH QUITE A BIT LESS SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY. MET/MAV
USED WITH MOST ELEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO APRIL`S FOOL JOKE HERE...LOOKS LIKE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SPRING- LIKE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE LONG TERM.

THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL STOP
RECHARGING ON CANADIAN COLD AIR AND UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RETURN BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH SOME RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST NEXT WEEK. THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT RAIN WILL BE THE
P-TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
LATE PART OF THE WEEK...BEFORE RETURNING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WED NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WED NIGHT AND A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THU.

THU NIGHT THRU SAT...A SUBTLE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND FRI. CHCS FOR SHOWERS INCREASE FROM THE
W THU NIGHT AND THEN A LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND
MOVES ALONG IT ACROSS OUR AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THE LOW DEEPENS
RATHER STRONGLY...SO A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN AND SCT TSTMS EXPECTED.
LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ATTM. PRECIP
TAPERS OFF FROM W TO E SAT MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THU
NIGHT THRU FRI AND THEN DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SAT.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY DRY. FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE N/W MON
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS STATES MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS OUR AREA. FOLLOWED WPC
POPS WITH MOSTLY CHC SHOWERS MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION
IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND
SURROUNDING AREAS.

AS OF MID EVENING...PRECIP IS MOVG ACROSS THE AREA PRETTY MUCH ON
SCHEDULE AND IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE OFFSHORE BY 04Z. PRECIP IS
LIGHT AND IS JUST CAUSING OCNL MVFR CONDS. LOW CLOUDS WILL
PROBABLY HANG AROUND A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER PRECIP ENDS BUT SKIES
SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. NLY WINDS WILL CONTNUE
OVERNIGHT IN THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW MOVG OFFSHORE AND
HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR ONCE THE RAIN ARRIVES, AS
LATE AS 22Z FOR ACY. THIS WILL BE A QUICK SHOT OF RAIN, MAINLY LIGHT
AND END BY 04Z ACROSS THE REGION. POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN MAY
RESULT IN BRIEF INTERVALS OF IFR CEILINGS WHICH WILL BE ADDED AS
NEEDED TO THE TAFS. THE RAIN MAY END BY 02Z WEST OF PHL. CEILINGS
WILL IMPROVE AFTER THE RAIN ENDS TO VFR BY SUNRISE. WINDS WILL ALSO
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
THIS EVENING WITH SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. ISOLATED WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU...VFR EXPECTED.
THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING..PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS
    AND A FEW TSTMS FRI/FRI NIGHT.
SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING AFTER
A PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SCA WIND GUSTS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BE AROUND FIVE FEET.
WITH THE FRONT DEPARTING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY AROUND 10Z
WEDNESDAY. ALLOWING SCA TO EXPIRE AT THAT TIME. SUB SCA SEAS AND
WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING...FAIR WEATHER. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...AMC/GAINES/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...AMC/GAINES/JOHNSON/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON/O`HARA



000
FXUS61 KPHI 010102
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
902 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF
INTO THE ATLANTIC LATER OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE AWAY
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING CANADA AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF MID EVENING...SFC LOW PRES CENTER CONTS TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS
THE LOWER CHES BAY WHILE THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROF IS MOVG
THROUGH ERN PA. SEVERAL BANDS OF PRECIP...MOSTLY RAIN ATTM...ARE
MOVG THROUGH SE PA...NJ AND DELMARVA. RAIN AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT, JUST
A FEW HUNDRETHS PER HOUR. A FEW CG LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN
DETECTED OVER NJ INDICATING SOME INSTBY ABOVETHE SFC. FARTHER N...
WE HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL SNOW REPORTS FROM THE HIGHER POCONOS OF
GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES. ALL PRECIP IS MOVG EWD AND SHOULD CLEAR
THE COAST BY MIDNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE FAIR OVERNIGHT...BUT AS THE
SFC LOW MOVES OFFSHORE SOME GUST WINDS MAY DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE SHORE.

OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS ARE FCST TO DROP TO THE LOW/MID 30S OVER NRN
DELMARVA...HWVR THE START OF THE GROWING SEASON WAS POSTPONED
UNTIL APRIL 11TH FOR THE DELMARVA, NO FROST PRODUCT CONSIDERATIONS
UNTIL THEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL MEAN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND 10 MPH. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO AROUND 0C SUGGEST A FAIRLY DECENT SHOT AT
LOW 50`S FOR PHL WITH QUITE A BIT LESS SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY. MET/MAV
USED WITH MOST ELEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO APRIL`S FOOL JOKE HERE...LOOKS LIKE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SPRING- LIKE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE LONG TERM.

THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL STOP
RECHARGING ON CANADIAN COLD AIR AND UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RETURN BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH SOME RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST NEXT WEEK. THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT RAIN WILL BE THE
P-TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
LATE PART OF THE WEEK...BEFORE RETURNING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WED NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WED NIGHT AND A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THU.

THU NIGHT THRU SAT...A SUBTLE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND FRI. CHCS FOR SHOWERS INCREASE FROM THE
W THU NIGHT AND THEN A LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND
MOVES ALONG IT ACROSS OUR AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THE LOW DEEPENS
RATHER STRONGLY...SO A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN AND SCT TSTMS EXPECTED.
LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ATTM. PRECIP
TAPERS OFF FROM W TO E SAT MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THU
NIGHT THRU FRI AND THEN DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SAT.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY DRY. FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE N/W MON
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS STATES MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS OUR AREA. FOLLOWED WPC
POPS WITH MOSTLY CHC SHOWERS MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION
IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND
SURROUNDING AREAS.

AS OF MID EVENING...PRECIP IS MOVG ACROSS THE AREA PRETTY MUCH ON
SCHEDULE AND IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE OFFSHORE BY 04Z. PRECIP IS
LIGHT AND IS JUST CAUSING OCNL MVFR CONDS. LOW CLOUDS WILL
PROBABLY HANG AROUND A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER PRECIP ENDS BUT SKIES
SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. NLY WINDS WILL CONTNUE
OVERNIGHT IN THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW MOVG OFFSHORE AND
HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR ONCE THE RAIN ARRIVES, AS
LATE AS 22Z FOR ACY. THIS WILL BE A QUICK SHOT OF RAIN, MAINLY LIGHT
AND END BY 04Z ACROSS THE REGION. POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN MAY
RESULT IN BRIEF INTERVALS OF IFR CEILINGS WHICH WILL BE ADDED AS
NEEDED TO THE TAFS. THE RAIN MAY END BY 02Z WEST OF PHL. CEILINGS
WILL IMPROVE AFTER THE RAIN ENDS TO VFR BY SUNRISE. WINDS WILL ALSO
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
THIS EVENING WITH SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. ISOLATED WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU...VFR EXPECTED.
THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING..PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS
    AND A FEW TSTMS FRI/FRI NIGHT.
SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING AFTER
A PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SCA WIND GUSTS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BE AROUND FIVE FEET.
WITH THE FRONT DEPARTING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY AROUND 10Z
WEDNESDAY. ALLOWING SCA TO EXPIRE AT THAT TIME. SUB SCA SEAS AND
WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING...FAIR WEATHER. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...AMC/GAINES/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...AMC/GAINES/JOHNSON/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON/O`HARA




000
FXUS61 KLWX 010032
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
832 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO OUR SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS BY TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY AND A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA LATE THIS EVENING. THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING FOR THE RIDGE TOPS OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS AND
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. A BRIEF PRESSURE SURGE WILL ALLOW FOR A 1-2 HR
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE THIS EVENING.

MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS...EVEN A FEW 20S OUT WEST
AND NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A RETURN TO SUNSHINE BUT WITH COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S TO NEAR 60 IN SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAKE ABOUT A TWO-DAY VISIT DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK...ATTEMPTING TO HANG ON THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AS ANOTHER COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE EFFECT ON
THU FROM THIS HIGH WILL BE ANOTHER WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE DAY IN TERMS
OF TEMPS. S-SW WINDS CHANNELING THRU THE VLYS OF THE APLCNS WILL
BRING TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S AND POSSIBLY SOME L80S...WHILE THE
PIEDMONT/COASTAL REGION STAYS A BIT MORE MODERATED BUT STILL NEAR
THE 70F DEG MARK BY MID AFTN.

MEANWHILE...A LARGE BUT FAIRLY DISORGANIZED FETCH OF GULF MOISTURE
WILL BE COLLECTING OVER THE MS RVR VLY AND DEEP SOUTH...AS A SERIES
OF UPPER WAVES BEGIN TO SHAPE IT WELL TO OUR WEST. A LONG
OUTSTRETCHED WARM FRONTAL REGION WILL BE SET UP TO OUR NORTH...FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST TO NEW ENGLAND AS WE HEAD INTO FRI. PLENTY OF
PRECIP WILL BE HANGING AROUND THIS BOUNDARY...STAYING LARGELY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE AREA UNTIL DAWN FRI. A WEAKER LOW PRES SYSTEM THAT
WILL DEVELOP THU NIGHT INTO FRI WILL SLIDE UP TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND...BUT A MORE POTENT LOW WILL BE FORMING OVER THE LOWER OHIO
RVR VLY. THE LOW WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH AS IT APPROACHES...BUT THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE STRENGTHENING THRU THE DAYTIME HRS. POCKETS OF
PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY...AS TEMPS RISE BACK INTO THE 60S/70S. THE COLD FRONT
WILL THEN MOVE THRU THE REGION LATE INTO THE NIGHTTIME HRS.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON WHATEVER LEFTOVER INSTABILITY
THERE IS FROM THE AFTN/EVE HEATING AND MAY COME IN TOO LATE TO
MAXIMIZE THIS POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THE LOW-MID SHEAR WILL BE POTENT
ENOUGH TO DRIVE AN ORGANIZED LINE - ALBEIT SHALLOW - BUT ENOUGH TO
MIX DOWN GUSTY WINDS IN ISOLATED AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WHILE
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE FROM NORTHERN TX/OK. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE SYSTEMS MAY BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE
CWA ENDING LATE SAT MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME UPSLOPE
PRECIP TO THE WEST MAY LAST LONGER. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO MON
NIGHT.

WINDY CONDITIONS FROM FRI INTO SAT NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR SAT NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...AND GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO A DEEP MIXING
LAYER.

SOLID VFR CONDS ON THU AS A LOW PRES SYSTEM APPROACHES INTO EARLY
FRI. THIS SYSTEM WILL TAKE A COUPLE OF DAYS TO PASS
COMPLETELY...W/ SOME ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY W/ A COLD FRONT
LATE FRI NIGHT AND RAIN SHOWERS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE.

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS REGION FRI NIGHT... BRINGING RAINY
CONDITIONS THROUGH SAT. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS FOR LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE BAY AND
THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER LATE THIS EVENING. A PRESSURE SURGE
IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT AND GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL GUST AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE WATERS LATE
TONIGHT...AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE MARYLAND
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC
RIVER. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS ALL
OF THE WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY...BUT KEPT GUSTS
CAPPED AT 15 KNOTS FOR NOW DUE TO A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT.

HIGH PRES MOVING OFFSHORE WED NIGHT INTO THU WILL CREATE PRES
GRADIENT STRONG ENOUGH FOR SCA CONDS OVER THE WATERS BOTH THU AND
FRI AFTNS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU THE REGION LATE FRI
NIGHT.

SCA LIKELY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BEHIND COLD AS WINDY CONDITIONS
DEVELOP. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS LATE SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ALL LOCATIONS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ025>027-029-
     503-504-507-508.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR WVZ055-501-502-
     505-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ531-532-
     539-540.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ533-534-537-541>543.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ533-534-537-
     541>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530-535-
     536-538.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL/KRW
NEAR TERM...BJL/KRW
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...IR
AVIATION...BJL/GMS/IR/KRW
MARINE...BJL/GMS/IR/KRW
FIRE WEATHER...BJL



000
FXUS61 KLWX 010032
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
832 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO OUR SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS BY TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY AND A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA LATE THIS EVENING. THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING FOR THE RIDGE TOPS OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS AND
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. A BRIEF PRESSURE SURGE WILL ALLOW FOR A 1-2 HR
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE THIS EVENING.

MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS...EVEN A FEW 20S OUT WEST
AND NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A RETURN TO SUNSHINE BUT WITH COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S TO NEAR 60 IN SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAKE ABOUT A TWO-DAY VISIT DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK...ATTEMPTING TO HANG ON THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AS ANOTHER COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE EFFECT ON
THU FROM THIS HIGH WILL BE ANOTHER WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE DAY IN TERMS
OF TEMPS. S-SW WINDS CHANNELING THRU THE VLYS OF THE APLCNS WILL
BRING TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S AND POSSIBLY SOME L80S...WHILE THE
PIEDMONT/COASTAL REGION STAYS A BIT MORE MODERATED BUT STILL NEAR
THE 70F DEG MARK BY MID AFTN.

MEANWHILE...A LARGE BUT FAIRLY DISORGANIZED FETCH OF GULF MOISTURE
WILL BE COLLECTING OVER THE MS RVR VLY AND DEEP SOUTH...AS A SERIES
OF UPPER WAVES BEGIN TO SHAPE IT WELL TO OUR WEST. A LONG
OUTSTRETCHED WARM FRONTAL REGION WILL BE SET UP TO OUR NORTH...FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST TO NEW ENGLAND AS WE HEAD INTO FRI. PLENTY OF
PRECIP WILL BE HANGING AROUND THIS BOUNDARY...STAYING LARGELY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE AREA UNTIL DAWN FRI. A WEAKER LOW PRES SYSTEM THAT
WILL DEVELOP THU NIGHT INTO FRI WILL SLIDE UP TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND...BUT A MORE POTENT LOW WILL BE FORMING OVER THE LOWER OHIO
RVR VLY. THE LOW WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH AS IT APPROACHES...BUT THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE STRENGTHENING THRU THE DAYTIME HRS. POCKETS OF
PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY...AS TEMPS RISE BACK INTO THE 60S/70S. THE COLD FRONT
WILL THEN MOVE THRU THE REGION LATE INTO THE NIGHTTIME HRS.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON WHATEVER LEFTOVER INSTABILITY
THERE IS FROM THE AFTN/EVE HEATING AND MAY COME IN TOO LATE TO
MAXIMIZE THIS POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THE LOW-MID SHEAR WILL BE POTENT
ENOUGH TO DRIVE AN ORGANIZED LINE - ALBEIT SHALLOW - BUT ENOUGH TO
MIX DOWN GUSTY WINDS IN ISOLATED AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WHILE
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE FROM NORTHERN TX/OK. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE SYSTEMS MAY BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE
CWA ENDING LATE SAT MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME UPSLOPE
PRECIP TO THE WEST MAY LAST LONGER. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO MON
NIGHT.

WINDY CONDITIONS FROM FRI INTO SAT NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR SAT NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...AND GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO A DEEP MIXING
LAYER.

SOLID VFR CONDS ON THU AS A LOW PRES SYSTEM APPROACHES INTO EARLY
FRI. THIS SYSTEM WILL TAKE A COUPLE OF DAYS TO PASS
COMPLETELY...W/ SOME ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY W/ A COLD FRONT
LATE FRI NIGHT AND RAIN SHOWERS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE.

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS REGION FRI NIGHT... BRINGING RAINY
CONDITIONS THROUGH SAT. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS FOR LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE BAY AND
THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER LATE THIS EVENING. A PRESSURE SURGE
IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT AND GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL GUST AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE WATERS LATE
TONIGHT...AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE MARYLAND
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC
RIVER. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS ALL
OF THE WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY...BUT KEPT GUSTS
CAPPED AT 15 KNOTS FOR NOW DUE TO A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT.

HIGH PRES MOVING OFFSHORE WED NIGHT INTO THU WILL CREATE PRES
GRADIENT STRONG ENOUGH FOR SCA CONDS OVER THE WATERS BOTH THU AND
FRI AFTNS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU THE REGION LATE FRI
NIGHT.

SCA LIKELY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BEHIND COLD AS WINDY CONDITIONS
DEVELOP. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS LATE SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ALL LOCATIONS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ025>027-029-
     503-504-507-508.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR WVZ055-501-502-
     505-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ531-532-
     539-540.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ533-534-537-541>543.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ533-534-537-
     541>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530-535-
     536-538.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL/KRW
NEAR TERM...BJL/KRW
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...IR
AVIATION...BJL/GMS/IR/KRW
MARINE...BJL/GMS/IR/KRW
FIRE WEATHER...BJL




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010027 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
827 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES A MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEDNESDAY.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE THURSDAY...BEFORE A WET WEATHER SYSTEM
CLOSES OUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
830PM UPDATE...REMOVED POPS FROM THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...ADJUSTED
TEMPS TO LATEST GUIDANCE AND LOWER CLOUD COVER AS STRATOCU
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH EXITING LOW. REST OF OVERNIGHT IN
GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SURFACE LOW DROPPING ACROSS WESTERN PA INTO THE
APPALACHIANS CURRENTLY...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY RECENTLY PASSING
THROUGH PIT. STEADIER PRECIP HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST...BUT SOME
SCATTERED POST-FRONTAL SHRA ARE FIRING IN MODEST INSTABILITY.
EXPECT THESE TO PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE FRONT OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KEPT THE THUNDER CHANCES GOING IN THE
SOUTHEAST BEFORE SUNSET...WHERE MORE SUN HAS BEEN SEEN TODAY. ONLY
EXPECT A FEW LINGERING SHRA AROUND 00Z IN THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE
ENDING DURING THE EVENING. 25-35 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH
DURING THAT TIME AS WELL.

BAND OF POST-FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL SWING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING
AS WELL. A SHORT PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS. THEN...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY IN
MICHIGAN YOOPER COUNTRY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND
12Z. EXPECT THIS TO MANIFEST MAINLY IN THE FORM OF REINFORCED
CLOUD COVER...BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH JUICE TO GET A FEW
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80 BY SUNRISE.

PREVIOUS LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS AT THE LOWER END OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. CONSIDERING THE WIND AND EXPECTED
CLOUDS...RAISED TEMPERATURES MORE TOWARDS THE MEAN OF THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEYOND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES AND SOME CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AS IT PASSES JUST NORTH OF
THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY....EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WIND SHIFT
TO THE SW IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AND WHILE RIDGE
WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST...THINK THAT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL
BE ALLOWED TO DECOUPLE. THUS...OPTED TO STAY CLOSER TO THE
MOS/ECMWF VALUES AND NOT THE WARMER NAME TEMPS.

COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MAKE IT`S APPROACH THURSDAY...WITH
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS
SHOULD...DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...BRINGING TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 60`S AND LOWER 70`S ACROSS THE REGION AS 850HPA
TEMPS APPROACH +10C. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SLOW WITH THE
BOUNDARY SO VERY LOW POPS WERE KEPT IN THE FORECAST UNTIL LATE.
HOWEVER...THE NAM AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE ECMWF...SUGGEST AN
AREA OF MOISTURE MAY BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO SOME OF THE REGION BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE PLACEMENT AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THESE SHOWERS...THOUGHT IT BEST TO JUST KEEP POPS
LOW FOR NOW. VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT
IN GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH THURSDAY AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER MAY
BE POSSIBLE LATE WITH THIN CAPE SUGGESTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS.

COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY WHEN A UPPER WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOP
AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
THE STRENGTH OF THIS LOW AND PLACEMENT BUT LIKELY TO LOW-CATEGORICAL
POPS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN ELEVATED UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES LATE FRIDAY...BUT
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM BEING AS WARM AS THEY WERE ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DRYING TREND IS INDICATED FOR THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. THE COOL DOWN
WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT THOUGH AS FLAT RIDGING IS ECMWF AND GFS
PROGGED TO BUILD AND MODERATE TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCT MVFR CIGS IN COLD ADVECTION BEING SWEPT SOUTHEAST AS SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS AND SUBSIDENCE ARE CLEARING SKIES ACROSS NORTHWEST PA.
GENERAL VFR EXPECTED AT ALL PORTS BY 02-03Z. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS WELL WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS OVERNIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING SOME MID DECK TOWARD 12Z WEDNESDAY MAINLY KPIT NORTH.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH LOW PRESSURE LATER THURSDAY INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010027 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
827 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES A MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEDNESDAY.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE THURSDAY...BEFORE A WET WEATHER SYSTEM
CLOSES OUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
830PM UPDATE...REMOVED POPS FROM THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...ADJUSTED
TEMPS TO LATEST GUIDANCE AND LOWER CLOUD COVER AS STRATOCU
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH EXITING LOW. REST OF OVERNIGHT IN
GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SURFACE LOW DROPPING ACROSS WESTERN PA INTO THE
APPALACHIANS CURRENTLY...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY RECENTLY PASSING
THROUGH PIT. STEADIER PRECIP HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST...BUT SOME
SCATTERED POST-FRONTAL SHRA ARE FIRING IN MODEST INSTABILITY.
EXPECT THESE TO PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE FRONT OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KEPT THE THUNDER CHANCES GOING IN THE
SOUTHEAST BEFORE SUNSET...WHERE MORE SUN HAS BEEN SEEN TODAY. ONLY
EXPECT A FEW LINGERING SHRA AROUND 00Z IN THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE
ENDING DURING THE EVENING. 25-35 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH
DURING THAT TIME AS WELL.

BAND OF POST-FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL SWING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING
AS WELL. A SHORT PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS. THEN...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY IN
MICHIGAN YOOPER COUNTRY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND
12Z. EXPECT THIS TO MANIFEST MAINLY IN THE FORM OF REINFORCED
CLOUD COVER...BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH JUICE TO GET A FEW
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80 BY SUNRISE.

PREVIOUS LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS AT THE LOWER END OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. CONSIDERING THE WIND AND EXPECTED
CLOUDS...RAISED TEMPERATURES MORE TOWARDS THE MEAN OF THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEYOND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES AND SOME CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AS IT PASSES JUST NORTH OF
THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY....EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WIND SHIFT
TO THE SW IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AND WHILE RIDGE
WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST...THINK THAT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL
BE ALLOWED TO DECOUPLE. THUS...OPTED TO STAY CLOSER TO THE
MOS/ECMWF VALUES AND NOT THE WARMER NAME TEMPS.

COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MAKE IT`S APPROACH THURSDAY...WITH
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS
SHOULD...DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...BRINGING TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 60`S AND LOWER 70`S ACROSS THE REGION AS 850HPA
TEMPS APPROACH +10C. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SLOW WITH THE
BOUNDARY SO VERY LOW POPS WERE KEPT IN THE FORECAST UNTIL LATE.
HOWEVER...THE NAM AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE ECMWF...SUGGEST AN
AREA OF MOISTURE MAY BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO SOME OF THE REGION BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE PLACEMENT AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THESE SHOWERS...THOUGHT IT BEST TO JUST KEEP POPS
LOW FOR NOW. VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT
IN GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH THURSDAY AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER MAY
BE POSSIBLE LATE WITH THIN CAPE SUGGESTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS.

COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY WHEN A UPPER WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOP
AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
THE STRENGTH OF THIS LOW AND PLACEMENT BUT LIKELY TO LOW-CATEGORICAL
POPS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN ELEVATED UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES LATE FRIDAY...BUT
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM BEING AS WARM AS THEY WERE ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DRYING TREND IS INDICATED FOR THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. THE COOL DOWN
WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT THOUGH AS FLAT RIDGING IS ECMWF AND GFS
PROGGED TO BUILD AND MODERATE TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCT MVFR CIGS IN COLD ADVECTION BEING SWEPT SOUTHEAST AS SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS AND SUBSIDENCE ARE CLEARING SKIES ACROSS NORTHWEST PA.
GENERAL VFR EXPECTED AT ALL PORTS BY 02-03Z. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS WELL WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS OVERNIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING SOME MID DECK TOWARD 12Z WEDNESDAY MAINLY KPIT NORTH.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH LOW PRESSURE LATER THURSDAY INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010018
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
818 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...AND GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...AND CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
INTERESTING TRENDS PAST FEW HOURS. MSAS SHOWING THE SFC LOW TRACKING
ESE (NEAR FYJ) RATHER THAN THE ENE TRACK THE MODELS WERE SHOWING.
THIS TRACK HAS RESULTED IN MAKING SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS
THIS EVE. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO EXTEND THE RAIN CHCS FARTHER WEST
INTO THE PIEDMONT AND INCREASE THE POPS ALONG THE ERN SHORE NEXT
FEW HRS. PCPN REMAINS JUST SHWRS AS NO LIGHTNING SEEN.

WINDS SHIFT TO THE WNW BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WITH GUSTY
WINDS ALONG THE ACTUAL FROPA. WAS SURPRISED TO SEE THE OB FROM
RIC AT 827 PM. A GUST TO 48KTS RESULTED IN A MINI "HEAT BURST" AS
THE TMP JUMPED FROM 73 TO 79 DEGREES. AN SPS WAS ISSUED FOR GUSTY
WINDS THRU 01Z ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN VA.

CONDS DRY OUT QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON WED. A COOLER DAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER-MID 60S FOR INTERIOR SRN VA/NE NC AND IN THE MID- UPPER 50S
CLOSER TO THE COAST AS WINDS TURN ONSHORE IN THE AFTN AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE
LATE WED NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT
IN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 MOST LOCATIONS.
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE
WITHIN A WARMING AIRMASS ESPECIALLY AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP
BY THE AFTN. MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S ONCE
AGAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID- UPPER 60S
AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. INCREASING CLOUDS THU NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND A MORE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS.
IN GENERAL...MODELS ARE SLOWER AT BRINGING IN DEEP MOISTURE AND
THE NRN STREAM AND SRN STREAM ARE SLOWER TO PHASE. HAVE SCALED
BACK A BIT ON POPS FOR FRI...LOOKS LIKE A LOW END CHC FOR MAINLY
-RA FRI MORNING...PRIMARILY ACRS NRN ZONES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. VERY MILD THU NIGHT IN SSW FLOW AND
INCRAESING CLOUDS...LOWS IN THE 50S TO POSSIBLE AS WARM AS 60 F IN
A FEW SPOTS. WARM/VARIABLY CLOUDY FRI WITH 20-30% CHC FOR -SHRA
AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY TSTMS AS THE SFC FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO
THE REGION. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 70S...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO
80F IF ENOUGH SUN CAN PREVAIL. MAIN RAIN EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL FRI NIGHT DESCRIBED IN THE LONG TERM BELOW...

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WET AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. STILL SOME MINOR SPATIAL AND TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WRT ASSOCIATED SRN STREAM ENERGY AND THE
COLD FRONT...BUT MOSTLY NOW WITH HOW QUICK PRECIP CLEARS THE COAST
SAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FRI NIGHT...EXCEPT THE SE. THETA-
E ADVECTION AND MILD TEMPS WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY FRI
EVENING. SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE SHARPENING LAPSE RATES AS TEMPS
ALOFT COOL. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI EVENING. COLD
FRONT EXITS THE COAST SAT AS THE PARENT LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
LIFT INTO THE NE STATES/CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST LATE SAT...REMAINING OVER THE REGION THRU SUN. THE
RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SAT-SUN GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S INLAND
AND MID-UPPER 50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER SERN
CANADA THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE
SUN AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF BEGINS TO SPREAD BACK NWD INTO THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE WLY FLOW CROSS THE REGION. BEGIN TO
REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGHS
MON IN THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ERN SHORE
AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S. HIGHS
TUES IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHWARD
MOVEMENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING. WINDS
SHIFT TO NW DURING THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD AND
BECOME GUSTY TOWARD THE COAST. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT MAINLY OVER NRN PORTIONS. SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS AT SBY. THE SKY CLEARS QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. NORTH WINDS CONTINUE
ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER RETURNS
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OVER NRN VA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE OH VALLEY. STRONG GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION BTWN LOW PRESSURE AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE FL COAST HAS
RESULTED IN STRONG SW WINDS OVER THE WATER THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS
GENERALLY 15-25 KT. FEW GUSTS OF 30 KT OBSERVED ON ELEVATED SITES
CLOSET TO LAND...WHERE 30 KT GUSTS ALSO OBSERVED. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3
FT AND WAVES 1-3 FT. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT NRN WATERS THIS EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPING ACROSS THE WATER AROUND MIDNIGHT. BRIEF LULL IN SCA SPEEDS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...BUT A NW CAA SURGE
EXPECTED POST FRONTAL. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-5 FT ALL COASTAL ZONES
WITH WAVES 3-4 FT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WEDS MORNING. SE SWELL
MAY KEEP SEAS HOVERING AROUND 5 FT 20 NM OUT THRU WEDS MORNING...BUT
SUBSIDING WEDS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT
WITH FLOW RETURNING TO THE S AOB 15 KT. SLY WINDS INCREASE THURS AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THURS-THURS EVENING WITH SLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT.
SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS ALSO PROGGED TO REACH 5 FT. FLOW BECOMES SW
FRI AS THE FRONT HANGS UP ALONG THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. FRONT
FINALLY CROSSES THE WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT. BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WATER THRU THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...ALB/SAM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010018
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
818 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...AND GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...AND CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
INTERESTING TRENDS PAST FEW HOURS. MSAS SHOWING THE SFC LOW TRACKING
ESE (NEAR FYJ) RATHER THAN THE ENE TRACK THE MODELS WERE SHOWING.
THIS TRACK HAS RESULTED IN MAKING SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS
THIS EVE. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO EXTEND THE RAIN CHCS FARTHER WEST
INTO THE PIEDMONT AND INCREASE THE POPS ALONG THE ERN SHORE NEXT
FEW HRS. PCPN REMAINS JUST SHWRS AS NO LIGHTNING SEEN.

WINDS SHIFT TO THE WNW BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WITH GUSTY
WINDS ALONG THE ACTUAL FROPA. WAS SURPRISED TO SEE THE OB FROM
RIC AT 827 PM. A GUST TO 48KTS RESULTED IN A MINI "HEAT BURST" AS
THE TMP JUMPED FROM 73 TO 79 DEGREES. AN SPS WAS ISSUED FOR GUSTY
WINDS THRU 01Z ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN VA.

CONDS DRY OUT QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON WED. A COOLER DAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER-MID 60S FOR INTERIOR SRN VA/NE NC AND IN THE MID- UPPER 50S
CLOSER TO THE COAST AS WINDS TURN ONSHORE IN THE AFTN AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE
LATE WED NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT
IN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 MOST LOCATIONS.
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE
WITHIN A WARMING AIRMASS ESPECIALLY AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP
BY THE AFTN. MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S ONCE
AGAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID- UPPER 60S
AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. INCREASING CLOUDS THU NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND A MORE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS.
IN GENERAL...MODELS ARE SLOWER AT BRINGING IN DEEP MOISTURE AND
THE NRN STREAM AND SRN STREAM ARE SLOWER TO PHASE. HAVE SCALED
BACK A BIT ON POPS FOR FRI...LOOKS LIKE A LOW END CHC FOR MAINLY
-RA FRI MORNING...PRIMARILY ACRS NRN ZONES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. VERY MILD THU NIGHT IN SSW FLOW AND
INCRAESING CLOUDS...LOWS IN THE 50S TO POSSIBLE AS WARM AS 60 F IN
A FEW SPOTS. WARM/VARIABLY CLOUDY FRI WITH 20-30% CHC FOR -SHRA
AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY TSTMS AS THE SFC FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO
THE REGION. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 70S...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO
80F IF ENOUGH SUN CAN PREVAIL. MAIN RAIN EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL FRI NIGHT DESCRIBED IN THE LONG TERM BELOW...

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WET AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. STILL SOME MINOR SPATIAL AND TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WRT ASSOCIATED SRN STREAM ENERGY AND THE
COLD FRONT...BUT MOSTLY NOW WITH HOW QUICK PRECIP CLEARS THE COAST
SAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FRI NIGHT...EXCEPT THE SE. THETA-
E ADVECTION AND MILD TEMPS WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY FRI
EVENING. SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE SHARPENING LAPSE RATES AS TEMPS
ALOFT COOL. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI EVENING. COLD
FRONT EXITS THE COAST SAT AS THE PARENT LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
LIFT INTO THE NE STATES/CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST LATE SAT...REMAINING OVER THE REGION THRU SUN. THE
RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SAT-SUN GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S INLAND
AND MID-UPPER 50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER SERN
CANADA THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE
SUN AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF BEGINS TO SPREAD BACK NWD INTO THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE WLY FLOW CROSS THE REGION. BEGIN TO
REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGHS
MON IN THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ERN SHORE
AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S. HIGHS
TUES IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHWARD
MOVEMENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING. WINDS
SHIFT TO NW DURING THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD AND
BECOME GUSTY TOWARD THE COAST. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT MAINLY OVER NRN PORTIONS. SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS AT SBY. THE SKY CLEARS QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. NORTH WINDS CONTINUE
ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER RETURNS
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OVER NRN VA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE OH VALLEY. STRONG GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION BTWN LOW PRESSURE AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE FL COAST HAS
RESULTED IN STRONG SW WINDS OVER THE WATER THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS
GENERALLY 15-25 KT. FEW GUSTS OF 30 KT OBSERVED ON ELEVATED SITES
CLOSET TO LAND...WHERE 30 KT GUSTS ALSO OBSERVED. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3
FT AND WAVES 1-3 FT. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT NRN WATERS THIS EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPING ACROSS THE WATER AROUND MIDNIGHT. BRIEF LULL IN SCA SPEEDS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...BUT A NW CAA SURGE
EXPECTED POST FRONTAL. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-5 FT ALL COASTAL ZONES
WITH WAVES 3-4 FT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WEDS MORNING. SE SWELL
MAY KEEP SEAS HOVERING AROUND 5 FT 20 NM OUT THRU WEDS MORNING...BUT
SUBSIDING WEDS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT
WITH FLOW RETURNING TO THE S AOB 15 KT. SLY WINDS INCREASE THURS AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THURS-THURS EVENING WITH SLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT.
SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS ALSO PROGGED TO REACH 5 FT. FLOW BECOMES SW
FRI AS THE FRONT HANGS UP ALONG THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. FRONT
FINALLY CROSSES THE WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT. BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WATER THRU THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...ALB/SAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010018
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
818 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...AND GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...AND CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
INTERESTING TRENDS PAST FEW HOURS. MSAS SHOWING THE SFC LOW TRACKING
ESE (NEAR FYJ) RATHER THAN THE ENE TRACK THE MODELS WERE SHOWING.
THIS TRACK HAS RESULTED IN MAKING SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS
THIS EVE. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO EXTEND THE RAIN CHCS FARTHER WEST
INTO THE PIEDMONT AND INCREASE THE POPS ALONG THE ERN SHORE NEXT
FEW HRS. PCPN REMAINS JUST SHWRS AS NO LIGHTNING SEEN.

WINDS SHIFT TO THE WNW BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WITH GUSTY
WINDS ALONG THE ACTUAL FROPA. WAS SURPRISED TO SEE THE OB FROM
RIC AT 827 PM. A GUST TO 48KTS RESULTED IN A MINI "HEAT BURST" AS
THE TMP JUMPED FROM 73 TO 79 DEGREES. AN SPS WAS ISSUED FOR GUSTY
WINDS THRU 01Z ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN VA.

CONDS DRY OUT QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON WED. A COOLER DAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER-MID 60S FOR INTERIOR SRN VA/NE NC AND IN THE MID- UPPER 50S
CLOSER TO THE COAST AS WINDS TURN ONSHORE IN THE AFTN AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE
LATE WED NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT
IN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 MOST LOCATIONS.
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE
WITHIN A WARMING AIRMASS ESPECIALLY AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP
BY THE AFTN. MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S ONCE
AGAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID- UPPER 60S
AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. INCREASING CLOUDS THU NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND A MORE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS.
IN GENERAL...MODELS ARE SLOWER AT BRINGING IN DEEP MOISTURE AND
THE NRN STREAM AND SRN STREAM ARE SLOWER TO PHASE. HAVE SCALED
BACK A BIT ON POPS FOR FRI...LOOKS LIKE A LOW END CHC FOR MAINLY
-RA FRI MORNING...PRIMARILY ACRS NRN ZONES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. VERY MILD THU NIGHT IN SSW FLOW AND
INCRAESING CLOUDS...LOWS IN THE 50S TO POSSIBLE AS WARM AS 60 F IN
A FEW SPOTS. WARM/VARIABLY CLOUDY FRI WITH 20-30% CHC FOR -SHRA
AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY TSTMS AS THE SFC FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO
THE REGION. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 70S...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO
80F IF ENOUGH SUN CAN PREVAIL. MAIN RAIN EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL FRI NIGHT DESCRIBED IN THE LONG TERM BELOW...

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WET AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. STILL SOME MINOR SPATIAL AND TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WRT ASSOCIATED SRN STREAM ENERGY AND THE
COLD FRONT...BUT MOSTLY NOW WITH HOW QUICK PRECIP CLEARS THE COAST
SAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FRI NIGHT...EXCEPT THE SE. THETA-
E ADVECTION AND MILD TEMPS WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY FRI
EVENING. SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE SHARPENING LAPSE RATES AS TEMPS
ALOFT COOL. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI EVENING. COLD
FRONT EXITS THE COAST SAT AS THE PARENT LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
LIFT INTO THE NE STATES/CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST LATE SAT...REMAINING OVER THE REGION THRU SUN. THE
RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SAT-SUN GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S INLAND
AND MID-UPPER 50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER SERN
CANADA THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE
SUN AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF BEGINS TO SPREAD BACK NWD INTO THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE WLY FLOW CROSS THE REGION. BEGIN TO
REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGHS
MON IN THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ERN SHORE
AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S. HIGHS
TUES IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHWARD
MOVEMENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING. WINDS
SHIFT TO NW DURING THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD AND
BECOME GUSTY TOWARD THE COAST. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT MAINLY OVER NRN PORTIONS. SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS AT SBY. THE SKY CLEARS QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. NORTH WINDS CONTINUE
ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER RETURNS
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OVER NRN VA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE OH VALLEY. STRONG GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION BTWN LOW PRESSURE AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE FL COAST HAS
RESULTED IN STRONG SW WINDS OVER THE WATER THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS
GENERALLY 15-25 KT. FEW GUSTS OF 30 KT OBSERVED ON ELEVATED SITES
CLOSET TO LAND...WHERE 30 KT GUSTS ALSO OBSERVED. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3
FT AND WAVES 1-3 FT. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT NRN WATERS THIS EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPING ACROSS THE WATER AROUND MIDNIGHT. BRIEF LULL IN SCA SPEEDS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...BUT A NW CAA SURGE
EXPECTED POST FRONTAL. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-5 FT ALL COASTAL ZONES
WITH WAVES 3-4 FT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WEDS MORNING. SE SWELL
MAY KEEP SEAS HOVERING AROUND 5 FT 20 NM OUT THRU WEDS MORNING...BUT
SUBSIDING WEDS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT
WITH FLOW RETURNING TO THE S AOB 15 KT. SLY WINDS INCREASE THURS AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THURS-THURS EVENING WITH SLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT.
SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS ALSO PROGGED TO REACH 5 FT. FLOW BECOMES SW
FRI AS THE FRONT HANGS UP ALONG THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. FRONT
FINALLY CROSSES THE WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT. BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WATER THRU THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...ALB/SAM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010018
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
818 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...AND GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...AND CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
INTERESTING TRENDS PAST FEW HOURS. MSAS SHOWING THE SFC LOW TRACKING
ESE (NEAR FYJ) RATHER THAN THE ENE TRACK THE MODELS WERE SHOWING.
THIS TRACK HAS RESULTED IN MAKING SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS
THIS EVE. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO EXTEND THE RAIN CHCS FARTHER WEST
INTO THE PIEDMONT AND INCREASE THE POPS ALONG THE ERN SHORE NEXT
FEW HRS. PCPN REMAINS JUST SHWRS AS NO LIGHTNING SEEN.

WINDS SHIFT TO THE WNW BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WITH GUSTY
WINDS ALONG THE ACTUAL FROPA. WAS SURPRISED TO SEE THE OB FROM
RIC AT 827 PM. A GUST TO 48KTS RESULTED IN A MINI "HEAT BURST" AS
THE TMP JUMPED FROM 73 TO 79 DEGREES. AN SPS WAS ISSUED FOR GUSTY
WINDS THRU 01Z ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN VA.

CONDS DRY OUT QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON WED. A COOLER DAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER-MID 60S FOR INTERIOR SRN VA/NE NC AND IN THE MID- UPPER 50S
CLOSER TO THE COAST AS WINDS TURN ONSHORE IN THE AFTN AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE
LATE WED NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT
IN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 MOST LOCATIONS.
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE
WITHIN A WARMING AIRMASS ESPECIALLY AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP
BY THE AFTN. MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S ONCE
AGAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID- UPPER 60S
AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. INCREASING CLOUDS THU NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND A MORE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS.
IN GENERAL...MODELS ARE SLOWER AT BRINGING IN DEEP MOISTURE AND
THE NRN STREAM AND SRN STREAM ARE SLOWER TO PHASE. HAVE SCALED
BACK A BIT ON POPS FOR FRI...LOOKS LIKE A LOW END CHC FOR MAINLY
-RA FRI MORNING...PRIMARILY ACRS NRN ZONES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. VERY MILD THU NIGHT IN SSW FLOW AND
INCRAESING CLOUDS...LOWS IN THE 50S TO POSSIBLE AS WARM AS 60 F IN
A FEW SPOTS. WARM/VARIABLY CLOUDY FRI WITH 20-30% CHC FOR -SHRA
AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY TSTMS AS THE SFC FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO
THE REGION. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 70S...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO
80F IF ENOUGH SUN CAN PREVAIL. MAIN RAIN EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL FRI NIGHT DESCRIBED IN THE LONG TERM BELOW...

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WET AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. STILL SOME MINOR SPATIAL AND TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WRT ASSOCIATED SRN STREAM ENERGY AND THE
COLD FRONT...BUT MOSTLY NOW WITH HOW QUICK PRECIP CLEARS THE COAST
SAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FRI NIGHT...EXCEPT THE SE. THETA-
E ADVECTION AND MILD TEMPS WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY FRI
EVENING. SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE SHARPENING LAPSE RATES AS TEMPS
ALOFT COOL. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI EVENING. COLD
FRONT EXITS THE COAST SAT AS THE PARENT LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
LIFT INTO THE NE STATES/CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST LATE SAT...REMAINING OVER THE REGION THRU SUN. THE
RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SAT-SUN GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S INLAND
AND MID-UPPER 50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER SERN
CANADA THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE
SUN AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF BEGINS TO SPREAD BACK NWD INTO THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE WLY FLOW CROSS THE REGION. BEGIN TO
REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGHS
MON IN THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ERN SHORE
AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S. HIGHS
TUES IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHWARD
MOVEMENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING. WINDS
SHIFT TO NW DURING THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD AND
BECOME GUSTY TOWARD THE COAST. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT MAINLY OVER NRN PORTIONS. SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS AT SBY. THE SKY CLEARS QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. NORTH WINDS CONTINUE
ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER RETURNS
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OVER NRN VA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE OH VALLEY. STRONG GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION BTWN LOW PRESSURE AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE FL COAST HAS
RESULTED IN STRONG SW WINDS OVER THE WATER THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS
GENERALLY 15-25 KT. FEW GUSTS OF 30 KT OBSERVED ON ELEVATED SITES
CLOSET TO LAND...WHERE 30 KT GUSTS ALSO OBSERVED. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3
FT AND WAVES 1-3 FT. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT NRN WATERS THIS EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPING ACROSS THE WATER AROUND MIDNIGHT. BRIEF LULL IN SCA SPEEDS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...BUT A NW CAA SURGE
EXPECTED POST FRONTAL. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-5 FT ALL COASTAL ZONES
WITH WAVES 3-4 FT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WEDS MORNING. SE SWELL
MAY KEEP SEAS HOVERING AROUND 5 FT 20 NM OUT THRU WEDS MORNING...BUT
SUBSIDING WEDS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT
WITH FLOW RETURNING TO THE S AOB 15 KT. SLY WINDS INCREASE THURS AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THURS-THURS EVENING WITH SLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT.
SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS ALSO PROGGED TO REACH 5 FT. FLOW BECOMES SW
FRI AS THE FRONT HANGS UP ALONG THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. FRONT
FINALLY CROSSES THE WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT. BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WATER THRU THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...ALB/SAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010016
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
816 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...AND GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...AND CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
INTERESTING TRENDS PAST FEW HOURS. MSAS SHOWING THE SFC LOW TRACKING
ESE (NEAR XSA) RATHER THAN THE ENE TRACK THE MODELS WERE SHOWING.
THIS TRACK HAS RESULTED IN MAKING SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS THIS
EVE. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO EXTEND THE RAIN CHCS FARTHER WEST INTO THE
PIEDMONT AND INCREASE THE POPS ALONG THE ERN SHORE NEXT FEW HRS.
PCPN REMAINS JUST SHWRS AS NO LIGHTNING SEEN.

WINDS SHIFT TO THE WNW BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WITH GUSTY
WINDS ALONG THE ACTUAL FROPA. WAS SURPRISED TO SEE THE OB FROM
RIC AT 827 PM. A GUST TO 48KTS RESULTED IN A MINI "HEAT BURST" AS
THE TMP JUMPED FROM 73 TO 79 DEGREES. AN SPS WAS ISSUED FOR GUSTY
WINDS THRU 01Z ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN VA.

CONDS DRY OUT QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON WED. A COOLER DAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER-MID 60S FOR INTERIOR SRN VA/NE NC AND IN THE MID- UPPER 50S
CLOSER TO THE COAST AS WINDS TURN ONSHORE IN THE AFTN AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE
LATE WED NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT
IN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 MOST LOCATIONS.
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE
WITHIN A WARMING AIRMASS ESPECIALLY AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP
BY THE AFTN. MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S ONCE
AGAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID- UPPER 60S
AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. INCREASING CLOUDS THU NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND A MORE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS.
IN GENERAL...MODELS ARE SLOWER AT BRINGING IN DEEP MOISTURE AND
THE NRN STREAM AND SRN STREAM ARE SLOWER TO PHASE. HAVE SCALED
BACK A BIT ON POPS FOR FRI...LOOKS LIKE A LOW END CHC FOR MAINLY
-RA FRI MORNING...PRIMARILY ACRS NRN ZONES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. VERY MILD THU NIGHT IN SSW FLOW AND
INCRAESING CLOUDS...LOWS IN THE 50S TO POSSIBLE AS WARM AS 60 F IN
A FEW SPOTS. WARM/VARIABLY CLOUDY FRI WITH 20-30% CHC FOR -SHRA
AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY TSTMS AS THE SFC FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO
THE REGION. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 70S...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO
80F IF ENOUGH SUN CAN PREVAIL. MAIN RAIN EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL FRI NIGHT DESCRIBED IN THE LONG TERM BELOW...

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WET AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. STILL SOME MINOR SPATIAL AND TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WRT ASSOCIATED SRN STREAM ENERGY AND THE
COLD FRONT...BUT MOSTLY NOW WITH HOW QUICK PRECIP CLEARS THE COAST
SAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FRI NIGHT...EXCEPT THE SE. THETA-
E ADVECTION AND MILD TEMPS WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY FRI
EVENING. SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE SHARPENING LAPSE RATES AS TEMPS
ALOFT COOL. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI EVENING. COLD
FRONT EXITS THE COAST SAT AS THE PARENT LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
LIFT INTO THE NE STATES/CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST LATE SAT...REMAINING OVER THE REGION THRU SUN. THE
RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SAT-SUN GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S INLAND
AND MID-UPPER 50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER SERN
CANADA THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE
SUN AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF BEGINS TO SPREAD BACK NWD INTO THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE WLY FLOW CROSS THE REGION. BEGIN TO
REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGHS
MON IN THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ERN SHORE
AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S. HIGHS
TUES IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHWARD
MOVEMENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING. WINDS
SHIFT TO NW DURING THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD AND
BECOME GUSTY TOWARD THE COAST. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT MAINLY OVER NRN PORTIONS. SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS AT SBY. THE SKY CLEARS QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. NORTH WINDS CONTINUE
ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER RETURNS
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.


&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OVER NRN VA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE OH VALLEY. STRONG GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION BTWN LOW PRESSURE AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE FL COAST HAS
RESULTED IN STRONG SW WINDS OVER THE WATER THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS
GENERALLY 15-25 KT. FEW GUSTS OF 30 KT OBSERVED ON ELEVATED SITES
CLOSET TO LAND...WHERE 30 KT GUSTS ALSO OBSERVED. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3
FT AND WAVES 1-3 FT. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT NRN WATERS THIS EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPING ACROSS THE WATER AROUND MIDNIGHT. BRIEF LULL IN SCA SPEEDS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...BUT A NW CAA SURGE
EXPECTED POST FRONTAL. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-5 FT ALL COASTAL ZONES
WITH WAVES 3-4 FT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WEDS MORNING. SE SWELL
MAY KEEP SEAS HOVERING AROUND 5 FT 20 NM OUT THRU WEDS MORNING...BUT
SUBSIDING WEDS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT
WITH FLOW RETURNING TO THE S AOB 15 KT. SLY WINDS INCREASE THURS AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THURS-THURS EVENING WITH SLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT.
SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS ALSO PROGGED TO REACH 5 FT. FLOW BECOMES SW
FRI AS THE FRONT HANGS UP ALONG THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. FRONT
FINALLY CROSSES THE WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT. BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WATER THRU THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...ALB/SAM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010016
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
816 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...AND GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...AND CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
INTERESTING TRENDS PAST FEW HOURS. MSAS SHOWING THE SFC LOW TRACKING
ESE (NEAR XSA) RATHER THAN THE ENE TRACK THE MODELS WERE SHOWING.
THIS TRACK HAS RESULTED IN MAKING SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS THIS
EVE. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO EXTEND THE RAIN CHCS FARTHER WEST INTO THE
PIEDMONT AND INCREASE THE POPS ALONG THE ERN SHORE NEXT FEW HRS.
PCPN REMAINS JUST SHWRS AS NO LIGHTNING SEEN.

WINDS SHIFT TO THE WNW BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WITH GUSTY
WINDS ALONG THE ACTUAL FROPA. WAS SURPRISED TO SEE THE OB FROM
RIC AT 827 PM. A GUST TO 48KTS RESULTED IN A MINI "HEAT BURST" AS
THE TMP JUMPED FROM 73 TO 79 DEGREES. AN SPS WAS ISSUED FOR GUSTY
WINDS THRU 01Z ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN VA.

CONDS DRY OUT QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON WED. A COOLER DAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER-MID 60S FOR INTERIOR SRN VA/NE NC AND IN THE MID- UPPER 50S
CLOSER TO THE COAST AS WINDS TURN ONSHORE IN THE AFTN AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE
LATE WED NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT
IN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 MOST LOCATIONS.
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE
WITHIN A WARMING AIRMASS ESPECIALLY AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP
BY THE AFTN. MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S ONCE
AGAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID- UPPER 60S
AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. INCREASING CLOUDS THU NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND A MORE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS.
IN GENERAL...MODELS ARE SLOWER AT BRINGING IN DEEP MOISTURE AND
THE NRN STREAM AND SRN STREAM ARE SLOWER TO PHASE. HAVE SCALED
BACK A BIT ON POPS FOR FRI...LOOKS LIKE A LOW END CHC FOR MAINLY
-RA FRI MORNING...PRIMARILY ACRS NRN ZONES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. VERY MILD THU NIGHT IN SSW FLOW AND
INCRAESING CLOUDS...LOWS IN THE 50S TO POSSIBLE AS WARM AS 60 F IN
A FEW SPOTS. WARM/VARIABLY CLOUDY FRI WITH 20-30% CHC FOR -SHRA
AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY TSTMS AS THE SFC FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO
THE REGION. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 70S...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO
80F IF ENOUGH SUN CAN PREVAIL. MAIN RAIN EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL FRI NIGHT DESCRIBED IN THE LONG TERM BELOW...

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WET AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. STILL SOME MINOR SPATIAL AND TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WRT ASSOCIATED SRN STREAM ENERGY AND THE
COLD FRONT...BUT MOSTLY NOW WITH HOW QUICK PRECIP CLEARS THE COAST
SAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FRI NIGHT...EXCEPT THE SE. THETA-
E ADVECTION AND MILD TEMPS WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY FRI
EVENING. SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE SHARPENING LAPSE RATES AS TEMPS
ALOFT COOL. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI EVENING. COLD
FRONT EXITS THE COAST SAT AS THE PARENT LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
LIFT INTO THE NE STATES/CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST LATE SAT...REMAINING OVER THE REGION THRU SUN. THE
RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SAT-SUN GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S INLAND
AND MID-UPPER 50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER SERN
CANADA THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE
SUN AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF BEGINS TO SPREAD BACK NWD INTO THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE WLY FLOW CROSS THE REGION. BEGIN TO
REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGHS
MON IN THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ERN SHORE
AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S. HIGHS
TUES IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHWARD
MOVEMENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING. WINDS
SHIFT TO NW DURING THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD AND
BECOME GUSTY TOWARD THE COAST. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT MAINLY OVER NRN PORTIONS. SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS AT SBY. THE SKY CLEARS QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. NORTH WINDS CONTINUE
ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER RETURNS
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.


&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OVER NRN VA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE OH VALLEY. STRONG GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION BTWN LOW PRESSURE AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE FL COAST HAS
RESULTED IN STRONG SW WINDS OVER THE WATER THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS
GENERALLY 15-25 KT. FEW GUSTS OF 30 KT OBSERVED ON ELEVATED SITES
CLOSET TO LAND...WHERE 30 KT GUSTS ALSO OBSERVED. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3
FT AND WAVES 1-3 FT. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT NRN WATERS THIS EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPING ACROSS THE WATER AROUND MIDNIGHT. BRIEF LULL IN SCA SPEEDS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...BUT A NW CAA SURGE
EXPECTED POST FRONTAL. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-5 FT ALL COASTAL ZONES
WITH WAVES 3-4 FT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WEDS MORNING. SE SWELL
MAY KEEP SEAS HOVERING AROUND 5 FT 20 NM OUT THRU WEDS MORNING...BUT
SUBSIDING WEDS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT
WITH FLOW RETURNING TO THE S AOB 15 KT. SLY WINDS INCREASE THURS AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THURS-THURS EVENING WITH SLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT.
SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS ALSO PROGGED TO REACH 5 FT. FLOW BECOMES SW
FRI AS THE FRONT HANGS UP ALONG THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. FRONT
FINALLY CROSSES THE WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT. BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WATER THRU THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...ALB/SAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010016
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
816 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...AND GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...AND CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
INTERESTING TRENDS PAST FEW HOURS. MSAS SHOWING THE SFC LOW TRACKING
ESE (NEAR XSA) RATHER THAN THE ENE TRACK THE MODELS WERE SHOWING.
THIS TRACK HAS RESULTED IN MAKING SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS THIS
EVE. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO EXTEND THE RAIN CHCS FARTHER WEST INTO THE
PIEDMONT AND INCREASE THE POPS ALONG THE ERN SHORE NEXT FEW HRS.
PCPN REMAINS JUST SHWRS AS NO LIGHTNING SEEN.

WINDS SHIFT TO THE WNW BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WITH GUSTY
WINDS ALONG THE ACTUAL FROPA. WAS SURPRISED TO SEE THE OB FROM
RIC AT 827 PM. A GUST TO 48KTS RESULTED IN A MINI "HEAT BURST" AS
THE TMP JUMPED FROM 73 TO 79 DEGREES. AN SPS WAS ISSUED FOR GUSTY
WINDS THRU 01Z ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN VA.

CONDS DRY OUT QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON WED. A COOLER DAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER-MID 60S FOR INTERIOR SRN VA/NE NC AND IN THE MID- UPPER 50S
CLOSER TO THE COAST AS WINDS TURN ONSHORE IN THE AFTN AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE
LATE WED NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT
IN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 MOST LOCATIONS.
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE
WITHIN A WARMING AIRMASS ESPECIALLY AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP
BY THE AFTN. MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S ONCE
AGAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID- UPPER 60S
AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. INCREASING CLOUDS THU NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND A MORE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS.
IN GENERAL...MODELS ARE SLOWER AT BRINGING IN DEEP MOISTURE AND
THE NRN STREAM AND SRN STREAM ARE SLOWER TO PHASE. HAVE SCALED
BACK A BIT ON POPS FOR FRI...LOOKS LIKE A LOW END CHC FOR MAINLY
-RA FRI MORNING...PRIMARILY ACRS NRN ZONES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. VERY MILD THU NIGHT IN SSW FLOW AND
INCRAESING CLOUDS...LOWS IN THE 50S TO POSSIBLE AS WARM AS 60 F IN
A FEW SPOTS. WARM/VARIABLY CLOUDY FRI WITH 20-30% CHC FOR -SHRA
AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY TSTMS AS THE SFC FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO
THE REGION. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 70S...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO
80F IF ENOUGH SUN CAN PREVAIL. MAIN RAIN EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL FRI NIGHT DESCRIBED IN THE LONG TERM BELOW...

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WET AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. STILL SOME MINOR SPATIAL AND TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WRT ASSOCIATED SRN STREAM ENERGY AND THE
COLD FRONT...BUT MOSTLY NOW WITH HOW QUICK PRECIP CLEARS THE COAST
SAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FRI NIGHT...EXCEPT THE SE. THETA-
E ADVECTION AND MILD TEMPS WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY FRI
EVENING. SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE SHARPENING LAPSE RATES AS TEMPS
ALOFT COOL. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI EVENING. COLD
FRONT EXITS THE COAST SAT AS THE PARENT LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
LIFT INTO THE NE STATES/CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST LATE SAT...REMAINING OVER THE REGION THRU SUN. THE
RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SAT-SUN GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S INLAND
AND MID-UPPER 50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER SERN
CANADA THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE
SUN AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF BEGINS TO SPREAD BACK NWD INTO THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE WLY FLOW CROSS THE REGION. BEGIN TO
REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGHS
MON IN THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ERN SHORE
AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S. HIGHS
TUES IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHWARD
MOVEMENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING. WINDS
SHIFT TO NW DURING THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD AND
BECOME GUSTY TOWARD THE COAST. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT MAINLY OVER NRN PORTIONS. SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS AT SBY. THE SKY CLEARS QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. NORTH WINDS CONTINUE
ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER RETURNS
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.


&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OVER NRN VA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE OH VALLEY. STRONG GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION BTWN LOW PRESSURE AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE FL COAST HAS
RESULTED IN STRONG SW WINDS OVER THE WATER THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS
GENERALLY 15-25 KT. FEW GUSTS OF 30 KT OBSERVED ON ELEVATED SITES
CLOSET TO LAND...WHERE 30 KT GUSTS ALSO OBSERVED. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3
FT AND WAVES 1-3 FT. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT NRN WATERS THIS EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPING ACROSS THE WATER AROUND MIDNIGHT. BRIEF LULL IN SCA SPEEDS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...BUT A NW CAA SURGE
EXPECTED POST FRONTAL. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-5 FT ALL COASTAL ZONES
WITH WAVES 3-4 FT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WEDS MORNING. SE SWELL
MAY KEEP SEAS HOVERING AROUND 5 FT 20 NM OUT THRU WEDS MORNING...BUT
SUBSIDING WEDS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT
WITH FLOW RETURNING TO THE S AOB 15 KT. SLY WINDS INCREASE THURS AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THURS-THURS EVENING WITH SLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT.
SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS ALSO PROGGED TO REACH 5 FT. FLOW BECOMES SW
FRI AS THE FRONT HANGS UP ALONG THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. FRONT
FINALLY CROSSES THE WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT. BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WATER THRU THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...ALB/SAM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010016
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
816 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...AND GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...AND CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
INTERESTING TRENDS PAST FEW HOURS. MSAS SHOWING THE SFC LOW TRACKING
ESE (NEAR XSA) RATHER THAN THE ENE TRACK THE MODELS WERE SHOWING.
THIS TRACK HAS RESULTED IN MAKING SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS THIS
EVE. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO EXTEND THE RAIN CHCS FARTHER WEST INTO THE
PIEDMONT AND INCREASE THE POPS ALONG THE ERN SHORE NEXT FEW HRS.
PCPN REMAINS JUST SHWRS AS NO LIGHTNING SEEN.

WINDS SHIFT TO THE WNW BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WITH GUSTY
WINDS ALONG THE ACTUAL FROPA. WAS SURPRISED TO SEE THE OB FROM
RIC AT 827 PM. A GUST TO 48KTS RESULTED IN A MINI "HEAT BURST" AS
THE TMP JUMPED FROM 73 TO 79 DEGREES. AN SPS WAS ISSUED FOR GUSTY
WINDS THRU 01Z ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN VA.

CONDS DRY OUT QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON WED. A COOLER DAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER-MID 60S FOR INTERIOR SRN VA/NE NC AND IN THE MID- UPPER 50S
CLOSER TO THE COAST AS WINDS TURN ONSHORE IN THE AFTN AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE
LATE WED NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT
IN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 MOST LOCATIONS.
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE
WITHIN A WARMING AIRMASS ESPECIALLY AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP
BY THE AFTN. MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S ONCE
AGAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID- UPPER 60S
AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. INCREASING CLOUDS THU NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND A MORE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS.
IN GENERAL...MODELS ARE SLOWER AT BRINGING IN DEEP MOISTURE AND
THE NRN STREAM AND SRN STREAM ARE SLOWER TO PHASE. HAVE SCALED
BACK A BIT ON POPS FOR FRI...LOOKS LIKE A LOW END CHC FOR MAINLY
-RA FRI MORNING...PRIMARILY ACRS NRN ZONES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. VERY MILD THU NIGHT IN SSW FLOW AND
INCRAESING CLOUDS...LOWS IN THE 50S TO POSSIBLE AS WARM AS 60 F IN
A FEW SPOTS. WARM/VARIABLY CLOUDY FRI WITH 20-30% CHC FOR -SHRA
AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY TSTMS AS THE SFC FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO
THE REGION. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 70S...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO
80F IF ENOUGH SUN CAN PREVAIL. MAIN RAIN EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL FRI NIGHT DESCRIBED IN THE LONG TERM BELOW...

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WET AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. STILL SOME MINOR SPATIAL AND TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WRT ASSOCIATED SRN STREAM ENERGY AND THE
COLD FRONT...BUT MOSTLY NOW WITH HOW QUICK PRECIP CLEARS THE COAST
SAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FRI NIGHT...EXCEPT THE SE. THETA-
E ADVECTION AND MILD TEMPS WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY FRI
EVENING. SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE SHARPENING LAPSE RATES AS TEMPS
ALOFT COOL. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI EVENING. COLD
FRONT EXITS THE COAST SAT AS THE PARENT LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
LIFT INTO THE NE STATES/CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST LATE SAT...REMAINING OVER THE REGION THRU SUN. THE
RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SAT-SUN GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S INLAND
AND MID-UPPER 50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER SERN
CANADA THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE
SUN AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF BEGINS TO SPREAD BACK NWD INTO THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE WLY FLOW CROSS THE REGION. BEGIN TO
REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGHS
MON IN THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ERN SHORE
AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S. HIGHS
TUES IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHWARD
MOVEMENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING. WINDS
SHIFT TO NW DURING THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD AND
BECOME GUSTY TOWARD THE COAST. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT MAINLY OVER NRN PORTIONS. SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS AT SBY. THE SKY CLEARS QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. NORTH WINDS CONTINUE
ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER RETURNS
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.


&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OVER NRN VA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE OH VALLEY. STRONG GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION BTWN LOW PRESSURE AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE FL COAST HAS
RESULTED IN STRONG SW WINDS OVER THE WATER THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS
GENERALLY 15-25 KT. FEW GUSTS OF 30 KT OBSERVED ON ELEVATED SITES
CLOSET TO LAND...WHERE 30 KT GUSTS ALSO OBSERVED. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3
FT AND WAVES 1-3 FT. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT NRN WATERS THIS EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPING ACROSS THE WATER AROUND MIDNIGHT. BRIEF LULL IN SCA SPEEDS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...BUT A NW CAA SURGE
EXPECTED POST FRONTAL. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-5 FT ALL COASTAL ZONES
WITH WAVES 3-4 FT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WEDS MORNING. SE SWELL
MAY KEEP SEAS HOVERING AROUND 5 FT 20 NM OUT THRU WEDS MORNING...BUT
SUBSIDING WEDS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT
WITH FLOW RETURNING TO THE S AOB 15 KT. SLY WINDS INCREASE THURS AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THURS-THURS EVENING WITH SLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT.
SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS ALSO PROGGED TO REACH 5 FT. FLOW BECOMES SW
FRI AS THE FRONT HANGS UP ALONG THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. FRONT
FINALLY CROSSES THE WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT. BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WATER THRU THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...ALB/SAM




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 312302
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
702 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES A MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEDNESDAY.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE THURSDAY...BEFORE A WET WEATHER SYSTEM
CLOSES OUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
530PM UPDATE...MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS USING CURRENT RADAR PICS
AND HRRR DATA. TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED WITH LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE.
SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING THE SOUTHEAST SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND
SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM THE NORTH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SURFACE LOW DROPPING ACROSS WESTERN PA INTO THE
APPALACHIANS CURRENTLY...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY RECENTLY PASSING
THROUGH PIT. STEADIER PRECIP HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST...BUT SOME
SCATTERED POST-FRONTAL SHRA ARE FIRING IN MODEST INSTABILITY.
EXPECT THESE TO PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE FRONT OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KEPT THE THUNDER CHANCES GOING IN THE
SOUTHEAST BEFORE SUNSET...WHERE MORE SUN HAS BEEN SEEN TODAY. ONLY
EXPECT A FEW LINGERING SHRA AROUND 00Z IN THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE
ENDING DURING THE EVENING. 25-35 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH
DURING THAT TIME AS WELL.

BAND OF POST-FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL SWING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING
AS WELL. A SHORT PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS. THEN...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY IN
MICHIGAN YOOPER COUNTRY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND
12Z. EXPECT THIS TO MANIFEST MAINLY IN THE FORM OF REINFORCED
CLOUD COVER...BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH JUICE TO GET A FEW
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80 BY SUNRISE.

PREVIOUS LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS AT THE LOWER END OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. CONSIDERING THE WIND AND EXPECTED
CLOUDS...RAISED TEMPERATURES MORE TOWARDS THE MEAN OF THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEYOND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES AND SOME CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AS IT PASSES JUST NORTH OF
THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY....EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WIND SHIFT
TO THE SW IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AND WHILE RIDGE
WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST...THINK THAT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL
BE ALLOWED TO DECOUPLE. THUS...OPTED TO STAY CLOSER TO THE
MOS/ECMWF VALUES AND NOT THE WARMER NAME TEMPS.

COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MAKE IT`S APPROACH THURSDAY...WITH
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS
SHOULD...DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...BRINGING TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 60`S AND LOWER 70`S ACROSS THE REGION AS 850HPA
TEMPS APPROACH +10C. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SLOW WITH THE
BOUNDARY SO VERY LOW POPS WERE KEPT IN THE FORECAST UNTIL LATE.
HOWEVER...THE NAM AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE ECMWF...SUGGEST AN
AREA OF MOISTURE MAY BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO SOME OF THE REGION BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE PLACEMENT AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THESE SHOWERS...THOUGHT IT BEST TO JUST KEEP POPS
LOW FOR NOW. VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT
IN GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH THURSDAY AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER MAY
BE POSSIBLE LATE WITH THIN CAPE SUGGESTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS.

COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY WHEN A UPPER WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOP
AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
THE STRENGTH OF THIS LOW AND PLACEMENT BUT LIKELY TO LOW-CATEGORICAL
POPS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN ELEVATED UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES LATE FRIDAY...BUT
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM BEING AS WARM AS THEY WERE ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DRYING TREND IS INDICATED FOR THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. THE COOL DOWN
WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT THOUGH AS FLAT RIDGING IS ECMWF AND GFS
PROGGED TO BUILD AND MODERATE TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCT MVFR CIGS IN COLD ADVECTION BEING SWEPT SOUTHEAST AS SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS AND SUBSIDENCE ARE CLEARING SKIES ACROSS NORTHWEST PA.
GENERAL VFR EXPECTED AT ALL PORTS BY 02-03Z. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS WELL WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS OVERNIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING SOME MID DECK TOWARD 12Z WEDNESDAY MAINLY KPIT NORTH.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH LOW PRESSURE LATER THURSDAY INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 312302
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
702 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES A MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEDNESDAY.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE THURSDAY...BEFORE A WET WEATHER SYSTEM
CLOSES OUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
530PM UPDATE...MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS USING CURRENT RADAR PICS
AND HRRR DATA. TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED WITH LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE.
SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING THE SOUTHEAST SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND
SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM THE NORTH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SURFACE LOW DROPPING ACROSS WESTERN PA INTO THE
APPALACHIANS CURRENTLY...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY RECENTLY PASSING
THROUGH PIT. STEADIER PRECIP HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST...BUT SOME
SCATTERED POST-FRONTAL SHRA ARE FIRING IN MODEST INSTABILITY.
EXPECT THESE TO PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE FRONT OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KEPT THE THUNDER CHANCES GOING IN THE
SOUTHEAST BEFORE SUNSET...WHERE MORE SUN HAS BEEN SEEN TODAY. ONLY
EXPECT A FEW LINGERING SHRA AROUND 00Z IN THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE
ENDING DURING THE EVENING. 25-35 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH
DURING THAT TIME AS WELL.

BAND OF POST-FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL SWING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING
AS WELL. A SHORT PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS. THEN...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY IN
MICHIGAN YOOPER COUNTRY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND
12Z. EXPECT THIS TO MANIFEST MAINLY IN THE FORM OF REINFORCED
CLOUD COVER...BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH JUICE TO GET A FEW
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80 BY SUNRISE.

PREVIOUS LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS AT THE LOWER END OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. CONSIDERING THE WIND AND EXPECTED
CLOUDS...RAISED TEMPERATURES MORE TOWARDS THE MEAN OF THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEYOND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES AND SOME CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AS IT PASSES JUST NORTH OF
THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY....EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WIND SHIFT
TO THE SW IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AND WHILE RIDGE
WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST...THINK THAT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL
BE ALLOWED TO DECOUPLE. THUS...OPTED TO STAY CLOSER TO THE
MOS/ECMWF VALUES AND NOT THE WARMER NAME TEMPS.

COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MAKE IT`S APPROACH THURSDAY...WITH
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS
SHOULD...DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...BRINGING TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 60`S AND LOWER 70`S ACROSS THE REGION AS 850HPA
TEMPS APPROACH +10C. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SLOW WITH THE
BOUNDARY SO VERY LOW POPS WERE KEPT IN THE FORECAST UNTIL LATE.
HOWEVER...THE NAM AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE ECMWF...SUGGEST AN
AREA OF MOISTURE MAY BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO SOME OF THE REGION BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE PLACEMENT AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THESE SHOWERS...THOUGHT IT BEST TO JUST KEEP POPS
LOW FOR NOW. VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT
IN GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH THURSDAY AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER MAY
BE POSSIBLE LATE WITH THIN CAPE SUGGESTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS.

COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY WHEN A UPPER WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOP
AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
THE STRENGTH OF THIS LOW AND PLACEMENT BUT LIKELY TO LOW-CATEGORICAL
POPS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN ELEVATED UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES LATE FRIDAY...BUT
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM BEING AS WARM AS THEY WERE ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DRYING TREND IS INDICATED FOR THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. THE COOL DOWN
WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT THOUGH AS FLAT RIDGING IS ECMWF AND GFS
PROGGED TO BUILD AND MODERATE TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCT MVFR CIGS IN COLD ADVECTION BEING SWEPT SOUTHEAST AS SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS AND SUBSIDENCE ARE CLEARING SKIES ACROSS NORTHWEST PA.
GENERAL VFR EXPECTED AT ALL PORTS BY 02-03Z. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS WELL WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS OVERNIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING SOME MID DECK TOWARD 12Z WEDNESDAY MAINLY KPIT NORTH.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH LOW PRESSURE LATER THURSDAY INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 312302
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
702 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES A MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEDNESDAY.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE THURSDAY...BEFORE A WET WEATHER SYSTEM
CLOSES OUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
530PM UPDATE...MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS USING CURRENT RADAR PICS
AND HRRR DATA. TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED WITH LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE.
SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING THE SOUTHEAST SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND
SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM THE NORTH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SURFACE LOW DROPPING ACROSS WESTERN PA INTO THE
APPALACHIANS CURRENTLY...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY RECENTLY PASSING
THROUGH PIT. STEADIER PRECIP HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST...BUT SOME
SCATTERED POST-FRONTAL SHRA ARE FIRING IN MODEST INSTABILITY.
EXPECT THESE TO PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE FRONT OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KEPT THE THUNDER CHANCES GOING IN THE
SOUTHEAST BEFORE SUNSET...WHERE MORE SUN HAS BEEN SEEN TODAY. ONLY
EXPECT A FEW LINGERING SHRA AROUND 00Z IN THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE
ENDING DURING THE EVENING. 25-35 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH
DURING THAT TIME AS WELL.

BAND OF POST-FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL SWING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING
AS WELL. A SHORT PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS. THEN...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY IN
MICHIGAN YOOPER COUNTRY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND
12Z. EXPECT THIS TO MANIFEST MAINLY IN THE FORM OF REINFORCED
CLOUD COVER...BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH JUICE TO GET A FEW
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80 BY SUNRISE.

PREVIOUS LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS AT THE LOWER END OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. CONSIDERING THE WIND AND EXPECTED
CLOUDS...RAISED TEMPERATURES MORE TOWARDS THE MEAN OF THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEYOND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES AND SOME CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AS IT PASSES JUST NORTH OF
THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY....EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WIND SHIFT
TO THE SW IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AND WHILE RIDGE
WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST...THINK THAT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL
BE ALLOWED TO DECOUPLE. THUS...OPTED TO STAY CLOSER TO THE
MOS/ECMWF VALUES AND NOT THE WARMER NAME TEMPS.

COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MAKE IT`S APPROACH THURSDAY...WITH
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS
SHOULD...DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...BRINGING TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 60`S AND LOWER 70`S ACROSS THE REGION AS 850HPA
TEMPS APPROACH +10C. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SLOW WITH THE
BOUNDARY SO VERY LOW POPS WERE KEPT IN THE FORECAST UNTIL LATE.
HOWEVER...THE NAM AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE ECMWF...SUGGEST AN
AREA OF MOISTURE MAY BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO SOME OF THE REGION BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE PLACEMENT AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THESE SHOWERS...THOUGHT IT BEST TO JUST KEEP POPS
LOW FOR NOW. VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT
IN GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH THURSDAY AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER MAY
BE POSSIBLE LATE WITH THIN CAPE SUGGESTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS.

COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY WHEN A UPPER WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOP
AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
THE STRENGTH OF THIS LOW AND PLACEMENT BUT LIKELY TO LOW-CATEGORICAL
POPS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN ELEVATED UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES LATE FRIDAY...BUT
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM BEING AS WARM AS THEY WERE ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DRYING TREND IS INDICATED FOR THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. THE COOL DOWN
WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT THOUGH AS FLAT RIDGING IS ECMWF AND GFS
PROGGED TO BUILD AND MODERATE TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCT MVFR CIGS IN COLD ADVECTION BEING SWEPT SOUTHEAST AS SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS AND SUBSIDENCE ARE CLEARING SKIES ACROSS NORTHWEST PA.
GENERAL VFR EXPECTED AT ALL PORTS BY 02-03Z. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS WELL WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS OVERNIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING SOME MID DECK TOWARD 12Z WEDNESDAY MAINLY KPIT NORTH.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH LOW PRESSURE LATER THURSDAY INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 312302
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
702 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES A MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEDNESDAY.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE THURSDAY...BEFORE A WET WEATHER SYSTEM
CLOSES OUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
530PM UPDATE...MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS USING CURRENT RADAR PICS
AND HRRR DATA. TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED WITH LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE.
SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING THE SOUTHEAST SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND
SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM THE NORTH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SURFACE LOW DROPPING ACROSS WESTERN PA INTO THE
APPALACHIANS CURRENTLY...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY RECENTLY PASSING
THROUGH PIT. STEADIER PRECIP HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST...BUT SOME
SCATTERED POST-FRONTAL SHRA ARE FIRING IN MODEST INSTABILITY.
EXPECT THESE TO PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE FRONT OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KEPT THE THUNDER CHANCES GOING IN THE
SOUTHEAST BEFORE SUNSET...WHERE MORE SUN HAS BEEN SEEN TODAY. ONLY
EXPECT A FEW LINGERING SHRA AROUND 00Z IN THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE
ENDING DURING THE EVENING. 25-35 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH
DURING THAT TIME AS WELL.

BAND OF POST-FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL SWING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING
AS WELL. A SHORT PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS. THEN...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY IN
MICHIGAN YOOPER COUNTRY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND
12Z. EXPECT THIS TO MANIFEST MAINLY IN THE FORM OF REINFORCED
CLOUD COVER...BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH JUICE TO GET A FEW
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80 BY SUNRISE.

PREVIOUS LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS AT THE LOWER END OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. CONSIDERING THE WIND AND EXPECTED
CLOUDS...RAISED TEMPERATURES MORE TOWARDS THE MEAN OF THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEYOND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES AND SOME CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AS IT PASSES JUST NORTH OF
THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY....EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WIND SHIFT
TO THE SW IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AND WHILE RIDGE
WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST...THINK THAT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL
BE ALLOWED TO DECOUPLE. THUS...OPTED TO STAY CLOSER TO THE
MOS/ECMWF VALUES AND NOT THE WARMER NAME TEMPS.

COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MAKE IT`S APPROACH THURSDAY...WITH
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS
SHOULD...DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...BRINGING TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 60`S AND LOWER 70`S ACROSS THE REGION AS 850HPA
TEMPS APPROACH +10C. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SLOW WITH THE
BOUNDARY SO VERY LOW POPS WERE KEPT IN THE FORECAST UNTIL LATE.
HOWEVER...THE NAM AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE ECMWF...SUGGEST AN
AREA OF MOISTURE MAY BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO SOME OF THE REGION BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE PLACEMENT AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THESE SHOWERS...THOUGHT IT BEST TO JUST KEEP POPS
LOW FOR NOW. VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT
IN GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH THURSDAY AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER MAY
BE POSSIBLE LATE WITH THIN CAPE SUGGESTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS.

COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY WHEN A UPPER WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOP
AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
THE STRENGTH OF THIS LOW AND PLACEMENT BUT LIKELY TO LOW-CATEGORICAL
POPS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN ELEVATED UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES LATE FRIDAY...BUT
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM BEING AS WARM AS THEY WERE ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DRYING TREND IS INDICATED FOR THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. THE COOL DOWN
WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT THOUGH AS FLAT RIDGING IS ECMWF AND GFS
PROGGED TO BUILD AND MODERATE TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCT MVFR CIGS IN COLD ADVECTION BEING SWEPT SOUTHEAST AS SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS AND SUBSIDENCE ARE CLEARING SKIES ACROSS NORTHWEST PA.
GENERAL VFR EXPECTED AT ALL PORTS BY 02-03Z. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS WELL WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS OVERNIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING SOME MID DECK TOWARD 12Z WEDNESDAY MAINLY KPIT NORTH.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH LOW PRESSURE LATER THURSDAY INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 312302
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
702 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES A MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEDNESDAY.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE THURSDAY...BEFORE A WET WEATHER SYSTEM
CLOSES OUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
530PM UPDATE...MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS USING CURRENT RADAR PICS
AND HRRR DATA. TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED WITH LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE.
SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING THE SOUTHEAST SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND
SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM THE NORTH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SURFACE LOW DROPPING ACROSS WESTERN PA INTO THE
APPALACHIANS CURRENTLY...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY RECENTLY PASSING
THROUGH PIT. STEADIER PRECIP HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST...BUT SOME
SCATTERED POST-FRONTAL SHRA ARE FIRING IN MODEST INSTABILITY.
EXPECT THESE TO PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE FRONT OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KEPT THE THUNDER CHANCES GOING IN THE
SOUTHEAST BEFORE SUNSET...WHERE MORE SUN HAS BEEN SEEN TODAY. ONLY
EXPECT A FEW LINGERING SHRA AROUND 00Z IN THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE
ENDING DURING THE EVENING. 25-35 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH
DURING THAT TIME AS WELL.

BAND OF POST-FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL SWING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING
AS WELL. A SHORT PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS. THEN...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY IN
MICHIGAN YOOPER COUNTRY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND
12Z. EXPECT THIS TO MANIFEST MAINLY IN THE FORM OF REINFORCED
CLOUD COVER...BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH JUICE TO GET A FEW
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80 BY SUNRISE.

PREVIOUS LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS AT THE LOWER END OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. CONSIDERING THE WIND AND EXPECTED
CLOUDS...RAISED TEMPERATURES MORE TOWARDS THE MEAN OF THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEYOND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES AND SOME CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AS IT PASSES JUST NORTH OF
THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY....EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WIND SHIFT
TO THE SW IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AND WHILE RIDGE
WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST...THINK THAT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL
BE ALLOWED TO DECOUPLE. THUS...OPTED TO STAY CLOSER TO THE
MOS/ECMWF VALUES AND NOT THE WARMER NAME TEMPS.

COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MAKE IT`S APPROACH THURSDAY...WITH
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS
SHOULD...DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...BRINGING TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 60`S AND LOWER 70`S ACROSS THE REGION AS 850HPA
TEMPS APPROACH +10C. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SLOW WITH THE
BOUNDARY SO VERY LOW POPS WERE KEPT IN THE FORECAST UNTIL LATE.
HOWEVER...THE NAM AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE ECMWF...SUGGEST AN
AREA OF MOISTURE MAY BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO SOME OF THE REGION BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE PLACEMENT AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THESE SHOWERS...THOUGHT IT BEST TO JUST KEEP POPS
LOW FOR NOW. VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT
IN GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH THURSDAY AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER MAY
BE POSSIBLE LATE WITH THIN CAPE SUGGESTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS.

COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY WHEN A UPPER WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOP
AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
THE STRENGTH OF THIS LOW AND PLACEMENT BUT LIKELY TO LOW-CATEGORICAL
POPS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN ELEVATED UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES LATE FRIDAY...BUT
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM BEING AS WARM AS THEY WERE ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DRYING TREND IS INDICATED FOR THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. THE COOL DOWN
WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT THOUGH AS FLAT RIDGING IS ECMWF AND GFS
PROGGED TO BUILD AND MODERATE TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCT MVFR CIGS IN COLD ADVECTION BEING SWEPT SOUTHEAST AS SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS AND SUBSIDENCE ARE CLEARING SKIES ACROSS NORTHWEST PA.
GENERAL VFR EXPECTED AT ALL PORTS BY 02-03Z. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS WELL WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS OVERNIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING SOME MID DECK TOWARD 12Z WEDNESDAY MAINLY KPIT NORTH.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH LOW PRESSURE LATER THURSDAY INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 312302
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
702 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES A MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEDNESDAY.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE THURSDAY...BEFORE A WET WEATHER SYSTEM
CLOSES OUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
530PM UPDATE...MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS USING CURRENT RADAR PICS
AND HRRR DATA. TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED WITH LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE.
SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING THE SOUTHEAST SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND
SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM THE NORTH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SURFACE LOW DROPPING ACROSS WESTERN PA INTO THE
APPALACHIANS CURRENTLY...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY RECENTLY PASSING
THROUGH PIT. STEADIER PRECIP HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST...BUT SOME
SCATTERED POST-FRONTAL SHRA ARE FIRING IN MODEST INSTABILITY.
EXPECT THESE TO PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE FRONT OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KEPT THE THUNDER CHANCES GOING IN THE
SOUTHEAST BEFORE SUNSET...WHERE MORE SUN HAS BEEN SEEN TODAY. ONLY
EXPECT A FEW LINGERING SHRA AROUND 00Z IN THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE
ENDING DURING THE EVENING. 25-35 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH
DURING THAT TIME AS WELL.

BAND OF POST-FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL SWING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING
AS WELL. A SHORT PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS. THEN...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY IN
MICHIGAN YOOPER COUNTRY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND
12Z. EXPECT THIS TO MANIFEST MAINLY IN THE FORM OF REINFORCED
CLOUD COVER...BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH JUICE TO GET A FEW
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80 BY SUNRISE.

PREVIOUS LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS AT THE LOWER END OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. CONSIDERING THE WIND AND EXPECTED
CLOUDS...RAISED TEMPERATURES MORE TOWARDS THE MEAN OF THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEYOND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES AND SOME CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AS IT PASSES JUST NORTH OF
THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY....EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WIND SHIFT
TO THE SW IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AND WHILE RIDGE
WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST...THINK THAT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL
BE ALLOWED TO DECOUPLE. THUS...OPTED TO STAY CLOSER TO THE
MOS/ECMWF VALUES AND NOT THE WARMER NAME TEMPS.

COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MAKE IT`S APPROACH THURSDAY...WITH
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS
SHOULD...DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...BRINGING TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 60`S AND LOWER 70`S ACROSS THE REGION AS 850HPA
TEMPS APPROACH +10C. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SLOW WITH THE
BOUNDARY SO VERY LOW POPS WERE KEPT IN THE FORECAST UNTIL LATE.
HOWEVER...THE NAM AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE ECMWF...SUGGEST AN
AREA OF MOISTURE MAY BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO SOME OF THE REGION BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE PLACEMENT AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THESE SHOWERS...THOUGHT IT BEST TO JUST KEEP POPS
LOW FOR NOW. VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT
IN GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH THURSDAY AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER MAY
BE POSSIBLE LATE WITH THIN CAPE SUGGESTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS.

COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY WHEN A UPPER WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOP
AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
THE STRENGTH OF THIS LOW AND PLACEMENT BUT LIKELY TO LOW-CATEGORICAL
POPS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN ELEVATED UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES LATE FRIDAY...BUT
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM BEING AS WARM AS THEY WERE ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DRYING TREND IS INDICATED FOR THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. THE COOL DOWN
WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT THOUGH AS FLAT RIDGING IS ECMWF AND GFS
PROGGED TO BUILD AND MODERATE TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCT MVFR CIGS IN COLD ADVECTION BEING SWEPT SOUTHEAST AS SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS AND SUBSIDENCE ARE CLEARING SKIES ACROSS NORTHWEST PA.
GENERAL VFR EXPECTED AT ALL PORTS BY 02-03Z. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS WELL WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS OVERNIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING SOME MID DECK TOWARD 12Z WEDNESDAY MAINLY KPIT NORTH.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH LOW PRESSURE LATER THURSDAY INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 312255
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
655 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...AND GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...AND CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LTST MSAS SHOWING CENTER OF THE WEAK LOW DRIFTING SE ERLY THIS
EVENING AND IS CRNTLY LCTD NEAR FORT AP HILL. BEST LIFT AND SPRT
FOR PCPN IS NE OF THIS LOW AND THIS IS VERIFIED BY THE CRNT RADAR
LOOP SHOWING AN AREA OF SHWRS FROM THE NRN NECK ON NE INTO THE LWR
MD ERN SHORE. SOME ENHANCED PCPN NOW SEEN ACROSS DORCHESTER CNTY
SO WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP POPS TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS DORCHESTER
AND WICOMICO CNTYS NEXT FEW HRS. AN AREA OF LIKELY POPS WERE KEPT
IVOF THE LOW TRACK WHICH TAKES IT ACROSS THE MIDDLE CHES BAY AND
ERN SHORE AREAS THROUGH 02Z BEFORE EXITING OFFSHORE. TRAILING
MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE GETTING RUNG OUT WEST OF THERE MAINLY DUE TO
THE VRY DRY AIRMASS OVR THE FA. LITTLE IF ANY PCPN IS MAKING IT TO
THE GROUND. KEPT AN AREA OF CHC POPS POPS MAINLY ALONG AND NE OF
I64 NEXT FEW HRS AS HRRR/RAP/SREF INDICATE SOME LGHT SHWRS ARE
PSBL AS THE TRAILING TROF EXITS OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT.

GUSTY WINDS CONT AHEAD OF THE SYSTM...SO WENT AHEAD AND REPLACED
THE FIRE WEATHER SPS WITH ONE FOR GUSTY WINDS THRU 00Z. WNDS XPCTD
TO DMNSH AFTER DARK AND FRTHR DMNSH AFTR MIDNIGHT.

CONDS DRY OUT QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON WED. A COOLER DAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER-MID 60S FOR INTERIOR SRN VA/NE NC AND IN THE MID- UPPER 50S
CLOSER TO THE COAST AS WINDS TURN ONSHORE IN THE AFTN AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE
LATE WED NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT
IN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 MOST LOCATIONS.
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE
WITHIN A WARMING AIRMASS ESPECIALLY AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP
BY THE AFTN. MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S ONCE
AGAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID- UPPER 60S
AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. INCREASING CLOUDS THU NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND A MORE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS.
IN GENERAL...MODELS ARE SLOWER AT BRINGING IN DEEP MOISTURE AND
THE NRN STREAM AND SRN STREAM ARE SLOWER TO PHASE. HAVE SCALED
BACK A BIT ON POPS FOR FRI...LOOKS LIKE A LOW END CHC FOR MAINLY
-RA FRI MORNING...PRIMARILY ACRS NRN ZONES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. VERY MILD THU NIGHT IN SSW FLOW AND
INCRAESING CLOUDS...LOWS IN THE 50S TO POSSIBLE AS WARM AS 60 F IN
A FEW SPOTS. WARM/VARIABLY CLOUDY FRI WITH 20-30% CHC FOR -SHRA
AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY TSTMS AS THE SFC FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO
THE REGION. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 70S...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO
80F IF ENOUGH SUN CAN PREVAIL. MAIN RAIN EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL FRI NIGHT DESCRIBED IN THE LONG TERM BELOW...

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WET AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. STILL SOME MINOR SPATIAL AND TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WRT ASSOCIATED SRN STREAM ENERGY AND THE
COLD FRONT...BUT MOSTLY NOW WITH HOW QUICK PRECIP CLEARS THE COAST
SAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FRI NIGHT...EXCEPT THE SE. THETA-
E ADVECTION AND MILD TEMPS WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY FRI
EVENING. SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE SHARPENING LAPSE RATES AS TEMPS
ALOFT COOL. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI EVENING. COLD
FRONT EXITS THE COAST SAT AS THE PARENT LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
LIFT INTO THE NE STATES/CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST LATE SAT...REMAINING OVER THE REGION THRU SUN. THE
RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SAT-SUN GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S INLAND
AND MID-UPPER 50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER SERN
CANADA THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE
SUN AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF BEGINS TO SPREAD BACK NWD INTO THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE WLY FLOW CROSS THE REGION. BEGIN TO
REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGHS
MON IN THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ERN SHORE
AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S. HIGHS
TUES IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVE. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT...GUSTY SW WINDS (25-30 KT) ARE EXPECTED TIL AROUND
22-23Z.

A BRIEF -SHRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KSBY THIS EVE. DRY WX AND
VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED WED AND THU. GUSTY SW WINDS MAY AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OVER NRN VA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE OH VALLEY. STRONG GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION BTWN LOW PRESSURE AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE FL COAST HAS
RESULTED IN STRONG SW WINDS OVER THE WATER THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS
GENERALLY 15-25 KT. FEW GUSTS OF 30 KT OBSERVED ON ELEVATED SITES
CLOSET TO LAND...WHERE 30 KT GUSTS ALSO OBSERVED. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3
FT AND WAVES 1-3 FT. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT NRN WATERS THIS EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPING ACROSS THE WATER AROUND MIDNIGHT. BRIEF LULL IN SCA SPEEDS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...BUT A NW CAA SURGE
EXPECTED POST FRONTAL. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-5 FT ALL COASTAL ZONES
WITH WAVES 3-4 FT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WEDS MORNING. SE SWELL
MAY KEEP SEAS HOVERING AROUND 5 FT 20 NM OUT THRU WEDS MORNING...BUT
SUBSIDING WEDS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT
WITH FLOW RETURNING TO THE S AOB 15 KT. SLY WINDS INCREASE THURS AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THURS-THURS EVENING WITH SLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT.
SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS ALSO PROGGED TO REACH 5 FT. FLOW BECOMES SW
FRI AS THE FRONT HANGS UP ALONG THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. FRONT
FINALLY CROSSES THE WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT. BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WATER THRU THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THESE WINDS IN
COMBINATION WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO 18 TO 25%
RANGE ACROSS VA AND NORTHEAST NC WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER.
AFTER COORDINATING WITH THE NC AND VA FORESTRY OFFICIALS AND
SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES...WILL MAINTAIN AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT THRU 6 PM. CRITICAL RED FLAG CRITERIA MAY BE MET IN A
FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...10-HR DEAD FUEL
MOISTURE VALUES ARE STILL MARGINAL OR SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING THE
NECESSARY THRESHOLD OF 7%. ON THE EASTERN SHORE...A STATEMENT WILL
NOT BE NECESSARY DUE TO HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB/MPR
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...ALB/SAM
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 312255
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
655 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...AND GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...AND CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LTST MSAS SHOWING CENTER OF THE WEAK LOW DRIFTING SE ERLY THIS
EVENING AND IS CRNTLY LCTD NEAR FORT AP HILL. BEST LIFT AND SPRT
FOR PCPN IS NE OF THIS LOW AND THIS IS VERIFIED BY THE CRNT RADAR
LOOP SHOWING AN AREA OF SHWRS FROM THE NRN NECK ON NE INTO THE LWR
MD ERN SHORE. SOME ENHANCED PCPN NOW SEEN ACROSS DORCHESTER CNTY
SO WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP POPS TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS DORCHESTER
AND WICOMICO CNTYS NEXT FEW HRS. AN AREA OF LIKELY POPS WERE KEPT
IVOF THE LOW TRACK WHICH TAKES IT ACROSS THE MIDDLE CHES BAY AND
ERN SHORE AREAS THROUGH 02Z BEFORE EXITING OFFSHORE. TRAILING
MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE GETTING RUNG OUT WEST OF THERE MAINLY DUE TO
THE VRY DRY AIRMASS OVR THE FA. LITTLE IF ANY PCPN IS MAKING IT TO
THE GROUND. KEPT AN AREA OF CHC POPS POPS MAINLY ALONG AND NE OF
I64 NEXT FEW HRS AS HRRR/RAP/SREF INDICATE SOME LGHT SHWRS ARE
PSBL AS THE TRAILING TROF EXITS OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT.

GUSTY WINDS CONT AHEAD OF THE SYSTM...SO WENT AHEAD AND REPLACED
THE FIRE WEATHER SPS WITH ONE FOR GUSTY WINDS THRU 00Z. WNDS XPCTD
TO DMNSH AFTER DARK AND FRTHR DMNSH AFTR MIDNIGHT.

CONDS DRY OUT QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON WED. A COOLER DAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER-MID 60S FOR INTERIOR SRN VA/NE NC AND IN THE MID- UPPER 50S
CLOSER TO THE COAST AS WINDS TURN ONSHORE IN THE AFTN AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE
LATE WED NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT
IN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 MOST LOCATIONS.
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE
WITHIN A WARMING AIRMASS ESPECIALLY AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP
BY THE AFTN. MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S ONCE
AGAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID- UPPER 60S
AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. INCREASING CLOUDS THU NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND A MORE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS.
IN GENERAL...MODELS ARE SLOWER AT BRINGING IN DEEP MOISTURE AND
THE NRN STREAM AND SRN STREAM ARE SLOWER TO PHASE. HAVE SCALED
BACK A BIT ON POPS FOR FRI...LOOKS LIKE A LOW END CHC FOR MAINLY
-RA FRI MORNING...PRIMARILY ACRS NRN ZONES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. VERY MILD THU NIGHT IN SSW FLOW AND
INCRAESING CLOUDS...LOWS IN THE 50S TO POSSIBLE AS WARM AS 60 F IN
A FEW SPOTS. WARM/VARIABLY CLOUDY FRI WITH 20-30% CHC FOR -SHRA
AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY TSTMS AS THE SFC FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO
THE REGION. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 70S...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO
80F IF ENOUGH SUN CAN PREVAIL. MAIN RAIN EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL FRI NIGHT DESCRIBED IN THE LONG TERM BELOW...

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WET AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. STILL SOME MINOR SPATIAL AND TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WRT ASSOCIATED SRN STREAM ENERGY AND THE
COLD FRONT...BUT MOSTLY NOW WITH HOW QUICK PRECIP CLEARS THE COAST
SAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FRI NIGHT...EXCEPT THE SE. THETA-
E ADVECTION AND MILD TEMPS WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY FRI
EVENING. SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE SHARPENING LAPSE RATES AS TEMPS
ALOFT COOL. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI EVENING. COLD
FRONT EXITS THE COAST SAT AS THE PARENT LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
LIFT INTO THE NE STATES/CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST LATE SAT...REMAINING OVER THE REGION THRU SUN. THE
RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SAT-SUN GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S INLAND
AND MID-UPPER 50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER SERN
CANADA THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE
SUN AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF BEGINS TO SPREAD BACK NWD INTO THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE WLY FLOW CROSS THE REGION. BEGIN TO
REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGHS
MON IN THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ERN SHORE
AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S. HIGHS
TUES IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVE. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT...GUSTY SW WINDS (25-30 KT) ARE EXPECTED TIL AROUND
22-23Z.

A BRIEF -SHRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KSBY THIS EVE. DRY WX AND
VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED WED AND THU. GUSTY SW WINDS MAY AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OVER NRN VA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE OH VALLEY. STRONG GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION BTWN LOW PRESSURE AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE FL COAST HAS
RESULTED IN STRONG SW WINDS OVER THE WATER THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS
GENERALLY 15-25 KT. FEW GUSTS OF 30 KT OBSERVED ON ELEVATED SITES
CLOSET TO LAND...WHERE 30 KT GUSTS ALSO OBSERVED. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3
FT AND WAVES 1-3 FT. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT NRN WATERS THIS EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPING ACROSS THE WATER AROUND MIDNIGHT. BRIEF LULL IN SCA SPEEDS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...BUT A NW CAA SURGE
EXPECTED POST FRONTAL. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-5 FT ALL COASTAL ZONES
WITH WAVES 3-4 FT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WEDS MORNING. SE SWELL
MAY KEEP SEAS HOVERING AROUND 5 FT 20 NM OUT THRU WEDS MORNING...BUT
SUBSIDING WEDS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT
WITH FLOW RETURNING TO THE S AOB 15 KT. SLY WINDS INCREASE THURS AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THURS-THURS EVENING WITH SLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT.
SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS ALSO PROGGED TO REACH 5 FT. FLOW BECOMES SW
FRI AS THE FRONT HANGS UP ALONG THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. FRONT
FINALLY CROSSES THE WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT. BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WATER THRU THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THESE WINDS IN
COMBINATION WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO 18 TO 25%
RANGE ACROSS VA AND NORTHEAST NC WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER.
AFTER COORDINATING WITH THE NC AND VA FORESTRY OFFICIALS AND
SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES...WILL MAINTAIN AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT THRU 6 PM. CRITICAL RED FLAG CRITERIA MAY BE MET IN A
FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...10-HR DEAD FUEL
MOISTURE VALUES ARE STILL MARGINAL OR SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING THE
NECESSARY THRESHOLD OF 7%. ON THE EASTERN SHORE...A STATEMENT WILL
NOT BE NECESSARY DUE TO HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB/MPR
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...ALB/SAM
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 312255
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
655 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...AND GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...AND CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LTST MSAS SHOWING CENTER OF THE WEAK LOW DRIFTING SE ERLY THIS
EVENING AND IS CRNTLY LCTD NEAR FORT AP HILL. BEST LIFT AND SPRT
FOR PCPN IS NE OF THIS LOW AND THIS IS VERIFIED BY THE CRNT RADAR
LOOP SHOWING AN AREA OF SHWRS FROM THE NRN NECK ON NE INTO THE LWR
MD ERN SHORE. SOME ENHANCED PCPN NOW SEEN ACROSS DORCHESTER CNTY
SO WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP POPS TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS DORCHESTER
AND WICOMICO CNTYS NEXT FEW HRS. AN AREA OF LIKELY POPS WERE KEPT
IVOF THE LOW TRACK WHICH TAKES IT ACROSS THE MIDDLE CHES BAY AND
ERN SHORE AREAS THROUGH 02Z BEFORE EXITING OFFSHORE. TRAILING
MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE GETTING RUNG OUT WEST OF THERE MAINLY DUE TO
THE VRY DRY AIRMASS OVR THE FA. LITTLE IF ANY PCPN IS MAKING IT TO
THE GROUND. KEPT AN AREA OF CHC POPS POPS MAINLY ALONG AND NE OF
I64 NEXT FEW HRS AS HRRR/RAP/SREF INDICATE SOME LGHT SHWRS ARE
PSBL AS THE TRAILING TROF EXITS OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT.

GUSTY WINDS CONT AHEAD OF THE SYSTM...SO WENT AHEAD AND REPLACED
THE FIRE WEATHER SPS WITH ONE FOR GUSTY WINDS THRU 00Z. WNDS XPCTD
TO DMNSH AFTER DARK AND FRTHR DMNSH AFTR MIDNIGHT.

CONDS DRY OUT QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON WED. A COOLER DAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER-MID 60S FOR INTERIOR SRN VA/NE NC AND IN THE MID- UPPER 50S
CLOSER TO THE COAST AS WINDS TURN ONSHORE IN THE AFTN AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE
LATE WED NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT
IN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 MOST LOCATIONS.
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE
WITHIN A WARMING AIRMASS ESPECIALLY AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP
BY THE AFTN. MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S ONCE
AGAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID- UPPER 60S
AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. INCREASING CLOUDS THU NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND A MORE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS.
IN GENERAL...MODELS ARE SLOWER AT BRINGING IN DEEP MOISTURE AND
THE NRN STREAM AND SRN STREAM ARE SLOWER TO PHASE. HAVE SCALED
BACK A BIT ON POPS FOR FRI...LOOKS LIKE A LOW END CHC FOR MAINLY
-RA FRI MORNING...PRIMARILY ACRS NRN ZONES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. VERY MILD THU NIGHT IN SSW FLOW AND
INCRAESING CLOUDS...LOWS IN THE 50S TO POSSIBLE AS WARM AS 60 F IN
A FEW SPOTS. WARM/VARIABLY CLOUDY FRI WITH 20-30% CHC FOR -SHRA
AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY TSTMS AS THE SFC FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO
THE REGION. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 70S...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO
80F IF ENOUGH SUN CAN PREVAIL. MAIN RAIN EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL FRI NIGHT DESCRIBED IN THE LONG TERM BELOW...

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WET AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. STILL SOME MINOR SPATIAL AND TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WRT ASSOCIATED SRN STREAM ENERGY AND THE
COLD FRONT...BUT MOSTLY NOW WITH HOW QUICK PRECIP CLEARS THE COAST
SAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FRI NIGHT...EXCEPT THE SE. THETA-
E ADVECTION AND MILD TEMPS WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY FRI
EVENING. SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE SHARPENING LAPSE RATES AS TEMPS
ALOFT COOL. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI EVENING. COLD
FRONT EXITS THE COAST SAT AS THE PARENT LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
LIFT INTO THE NE STATES/CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST LATE SAT...REMAINING OVER THE REGION THRU SUN. THE
RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SAT-SUN GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S INLAND
AND MID-UPPER 50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER SERN
CANADA THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE
SUN AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF BEGINS TO SPREAD BACK NWD INTO THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE WLY FLOW CROSS THE REGION. BEGIN TO
REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGHS
MON IN THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ERN SHORE
AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S. HIGHS
TUES IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVE. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT...GUSTY SW WINDS (25-30 KT) ARE EXPECTED TIL AROUND
22-23Z.

A BRIEF -SHRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KSBY THIS EVE. DRY WX AND
VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED WED AND THU. GUSTY SW WINDS MAY AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OVER NRN VA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE OH VALLEY. STRONG GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION BTWN LOW PRESSURE AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE FL COAST HAS
RESULTED IN STRONG SW WINDS OVER THE WATER THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS
GENERALLY 15-25 KT. FEW GUSTS OF 30 KT OBSERVED ON ELEVATED SITES
CLOSET TO LAND...WHERE 30 KT GUSTS ALSO OBSERVED. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3
FT AND WAVES 1-3 FT. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT NRN WATERS THIS EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPING ACROSS THE WATER AROUND MIDNIGHT. BRIEF LULL IN SCA SPEEDS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...BUT A NW CAA SURGE
EXPECTED POST FRONTAL. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-5 FT ALL COASTAL ZONES
WITH WAVES 3-4 FT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WEDS MORNING. SE SWELL
MAY KEEP SEAS HOVERING AROUND 5 FT 20 NM OUT THRU WEDS MORNING...BUT
SUBSIDING WEDS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT
WITH FLOW RETURNING TO THE S AOB 15 KT. SLY WINDS INCREASE THURS AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THURS-THURS EVENING WITH SLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT.
SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS ALSO PROGGED TO REACH 5 FT. FLOW BECOMES SW
FRI AS THE FRONT HANGS UP ALONG THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. FRONT
FINALLY CROSSES THE WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT. BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WATER THRU THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THESE WINDS IN
COMBINATION WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO 18 TO 25%
RANGE ACROSS VA AND NORTHEAST NC WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER.
AFTER COORDINATING WITH THE NC AND VA FORESTRY OFFICIALS AND
SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES...WILL MAINTAIN AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT THRU 6 PM. CRITICAL RED FLAG CRITERIA MAY BE MET IN A
FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...10-HR DEAD FUEL
MOISTURE VALUES ARE STILL MARGINAL OR SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING THE
NECESSARY THRESHOLD OF 7%. ON THE EASTERN SHORE...A STATEMENT WILL
NOT BE NECESSARY DUE TO HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB/MPR
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...ALB/SAM
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 312255
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
655 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...AND GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...AND CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LTST MSAS SHOWING CENTER OF THE WEAK LOW DRIFTING SE ERLY THIS
EVENING AND IS CRNTLY LCTD NEAR FORT AP HILL. BEST LIFT AND SPRT
FOR PCPN IS NE OF THIS LOW AND THIS IS VERIFIED BY THE CRNT RADAR
LOOP SHOWING AN AREA OF SHWRS FROM THE NRN NECK ON NE INTO THE LWR
MD ERN SHORE. SOME ENHANCED PCPN NOW SEEN ACROSS DORCHESTER CNTY
SO WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP POPS TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS DORCHESTER
AND WICOMICO CNTYS NEXT FEW HRS. AN AREA OF LIKELY POPS WERE KEPT
IVOF THE LOW TRACK WHICH TAKES IT ACROSS THE MIDDLE CHES BAY AND
ERN SHORE AREAS THROUGH 02Z BEFORE EXITING OFFSHORE. TRAILING
MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE GETTING RUNG OUT WEST OF THERE MAINLY DUE TO
THE VRY DRY AIRMASS OVR THE FA. LITTLE IF ANY PCPN IS MAKING IT TO
THE GROUND. KEPT AN AREA OF CHC POPS POPS MAINLY ALONG AND NE OF
I64 NEXT FEW HRS AS HRRR/RAP/SREF INDICATE SOME LGHT SHWRS ARE
PSBL AS THE TRAILING TROF EXITS OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT.

GUSTY WINDS CONT AHEAD OF THE SYSTM...SO WENT AHEAD AND REPLACED
THE FIRE WEATHER SPS WITH ONE FOR GUSTY WINDS THRU 00Z. WNDS XPCTD
TO DMNSH AFTER DARK AND FRTHR DMNSH AFTR MIDNIGHT.

CONDS DRY OUT QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON WED. A COOLER DAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER-MID 60S FOR INTERIOR SRN VA/NE NC AND IN THE MID- UPPER 50S
CLOSER TO THE COAST AS WINDS TURN ONSHORE IN THE AFTN AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE
LATE WED NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT
IN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 MOST LOCATIONS.
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE
WITHIN A WARMING AIRMASS ESPECIALLY AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP
BY THE AFTN. MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S ONCE
AGAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID- UPPER 60S
AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. INCREASING CLOUDS THU NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND A MORE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS.
IN GENERAL...MODELS ARE SLOWER AT BRINGING IN DEEP MOISTURE AND
THE NRN STREAM AND SRN STREAM ARE SLOWER TO PHASE. HAVE SCALED
BACK A BIT ON POPS FOR FRI...LOOKS LIKE A LOW END CHC FOR MAINLY
-RA FRI MORNING...PRIMARILY ACRS NRN ZONES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. VERY MILD THU NIGHT IN SSW FLOW AND
INCRAESING CLOUDS...LOWS IN THE 50S TO POSSIBLE AS WARM AS 60 F IN
A FEW SPOTS. WARM/VARIABLY CLOUDY FRI WITH 20-30% CHC FOR -SHRA
AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY TSTMS AS THE SFC FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO
THE REGION. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 70S...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO
80F IF ENOUGH SUN CAN PREVAIL. MAIN RAIN EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL FRI NIGHT DESCRIBED IN THE LONG TERM BELOW...

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WET AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. STILL SOME MINOR SPATIAL AND TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WRT ASSOCIATED SRN STREAM ENERGY AND THE
COLD FRONT...BUT MOSTLY NOW WITH HOW QUICK PRECIP CLEARS THE COAST
SAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FRI NIGHT...EXCEPT THE SE. THETA-
E ADVECTION AND MILD TEMPS WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY FRI
EVENING. SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE SHARPENING LAPSE RATES AS TEMPS
ALOFT COOL. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI EVENING. COLD
FRONT EXITS THE COAST SAT AS THE PARENT LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
LIFT INTO THE NE STATES/CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST LATE SAT...REMAINING OVER THE REGION THRU SUN. THE
RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SAT-SUN GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S INLAND
AND MID-UPPER 50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER SERN
CANADA THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE
SUN AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF BEGINS TO SPREAD BACK NWD INTO THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE WLY FLOW CROSS THE REGION. BEGIN TO
REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGHS
MON IN THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ERN SHORE
AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S. HIGHS
TUES IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVE. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT...GUSTY SW WINDS (25-30 KT) ARE EXPECTED TIL AROUND
22-23Z.

A BRIEF -SHRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KSBY THIS EVE. DRY WX AND
VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED WED AND THU. GUSTY SW WINDS MAY AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OVER NRN VA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE OH VALLEY. STRONG GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION BTWN LOW PRESSURE AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE FL COAST HAS
RESULTED IN STRONG SW WINDS OVER THE WATER THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS
GENERALLY 15-25 KT. FEW GUSTS OF 30 KT OBSERVED ON ELEVATED SITES
CLOSET TO LAND...WHERE 30 KT GUSTS ALSO OBSERVED. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3
FT AND WAVES 1-3 FT. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT NRN WATERS THIS EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPING ACROSS THE WATER AROUND MIDNIGHT. BRIEF LULL IN SCA SPEEDS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...BUT A NW CAA SURGE
EXPECTED POST FRONTAL. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-5 FT ALL COASTAL ZONES
WITH WAVES 3-4 FT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WEDS MORNING. SE SWELL
MAY KEEP SEAS HOVERING AROUND 5 FT 20 NM OUT THRU WEDS MORNING...BUT
SUBSIDING WEDS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT
WITH FLOW RETURNING TO THE S AOB 15 KT. SLY WINDS INCREASE THURS AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THURS-THURS EVENING WITH SLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT.
SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS ALSO PROGGED TO REACH 5 FT. FLOW BECOMES SW
FRI AS THE FRONT HANGS UP ALONG THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. FRONT
FINALLY CROSSES THE WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT. BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WATER THRU THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THESE WINDS IN
COMBINATION WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO 18 TO 25%
RANGE ACROSS VA AND NORTHEAST NC WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER.
AFTER COORDINATING WITH THE NC AND VA FORESTRY OFFICIALS AND
SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES...WILL MAINTAIN AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT THRU 6 PM. CRITICAL RED FLAG CRITERIA MAY BE MET IN A
FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...10-HR DEAD FUEL
MOISTURE VALUES ARE STILL MARGINAL OR SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING THE
NECESSARY THRESHOLD OF 7%. ON THE EASTERN SHORE...A STATEMENT WILL
NOT BE NECESSARY DUE TO HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB/MPR
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...ALB/SAM
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 312255
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
655 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...AND GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...AND CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LTST MSAS SHOWING CENTER OF THE WEAK LOW DRIFTING SE ERLY THIS
EVENING AND IS CRNTLY LCTD NEAR FORT AP HILL. BEST LIFT AND SPRT
FOR PCPN IS NE OF THIS LOW AND THIS IS VERIFIED BY THE CRNT RADAR
LOOP SHOWING AN AREA OF SHWRS FROM THE NRN NECK ON NE INTO THE LWR
MD ERN SHORE. SOME ENHANCED PCPN NOW SEEN ACROSS DORCHESTER CNTY
SO WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP POPS TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS DORCHESTER
AND WICOMICO CNTYS NEXT FEW HRS. AN AREA OF LIKELY POPS WERE KEPT
IVOF THE LOW TRACK WHICH TAKES IT ACROSS THE MIDDLE CHES BAY AND
ERN SHORE AREAS THROUGH 02Z BEFORE EXITING OFFSHORE. TRAILING
MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE GETTING RUNG OUT WEST OF THERE MAINLY DUE TO
THE VRY DRY AIRMASS OVR THE FA. LITTLE IF ANY PCPN IS MAKING IT TO
THE GROUND. KEPT AN AREA OF CHC POPS POPS MAINLY ALONG AND NE OF
I64 NEXT FEW HRS AS HRRR/RAP/SREF INDICATE SOME LGHT SHWRS ARE
PSBL AS THE TRAILING TROF EXITS OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT.

GUSTY WINDS CONT AHEAD OF THE SYSTM...SO WENT AHEAD AND REPLACED
THE FIRE WEATHER SPS WITH ONE FOR GUSTY WINDS THRU 00Z. WNDS XPCTD
TO DMNSH AFTER DARK AND FRTHR DMNSH AFTR MIDNIGHT.

CONDS DRY OUT QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON WED. A COOLER DAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER-MID 60S FOR INTERIOR SRN VA/NE NC AND IN THE MID- UPPER 50S
CLOSER TO THE COAST AS WINDS TURN ONSHORE IN THE AFTN AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE
LATE WED NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT
IN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 MOST LOCATIONS.
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE
WITHIN A WARMING AIRMASS ESPECIALLY AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP
BY THE AFTN. MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S ONCE
AGAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID- UPPER 60S
AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. INCREASING CLOUDS THU NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND A MORE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS.
IN GENERAL...MODELS ARE SLOWER AT BRINGING IN DEEP MOISTURE AND
THE NRN STREAM AND SRN STREAM ARE SLOWER TO PHASE. HAVE SCALED
BACK A BIT ON POPS FOR FRI...LOOKS LIKE A LOW END CHC FOR MAINLY
-RA FRI MORNING...PRIMARILY ACRS NRN ZONES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. VERY MILD THU NIGHT IN SSW FLOW AND
INCRAESING CLOUDS...LOWS IN THE 50S TO POSSIBLE AS WARM AS 60 F IN
A FEW SPOTS. WARM/VARIABLY CLOUDY FRI WITH 20-30% CHC FOR -SHRA
AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY TSTMS AS THE SFC FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO
THE REGION. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 70S...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO
80F IF ENOUGH SUN CAN PREVAIL. MAIN RAIN EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL FRI NIGHT DESCRIBED IN THE LONG TERM BELOW...

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WET AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. STILL SOME MINOR SPATIAL AND TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WRT ASSOCIATED SRN STREAM ENERGY AND THE
COLD FRONT...BUT MOSTLY NOW WITH HOW QUICK PRECIP CLEARS THE COAST
SAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FRI NIGHT...EXCEPT THE SE. THETA-
E ADVECTION AND MILD TEMPS WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY FRI
EVENING. SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE SHARPENING LAPSE RATES AS TEMPS
ALOFT COOL. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI EVENING. COLD
FRONT EXITS THE COAST SAT AS THE PARENT LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
LIFT INTO THE NE STATES/CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST LATE SAT...REMAINING OVER THE REGION THRU SUN. THE
RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SAT-SUN GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S INLAND
AND MID-UPPER 50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER SERN
CANADA THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE
SUN AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF BEGINS TO SPREAD BACK NWD INTO THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE WLY FLOW CROSS THE REGION. BEGIN TO
REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGHS
MON IN THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ERN SHORE
AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S. HIGHS
TUES IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVE. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT...GUSTY SW WINDS (25-30 KT) ARE EXPECTED TIL AROUND
22-23Z.

A BRIEF -SHRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KSBY THIS EVE. DRY WX AND
VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED WED AND THU. GUSTY SW WINDS MAY AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OVER NRN VA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE OH VALLEY. STRONG GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION BTWN LOW PRESSURE AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE FL COAST HAS
RESULTED IN STRONG SW WINDS OVER THE WATER THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS
GENERALLY 15-25 KT. FEW GUSTS OF 30 KT OBSERVED ON ELEVATED SITES
CLOSET TO LAND...WHERE 30 KT GUSTS ALSO OBSERVED. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3
FT AND WAVES 1-3 FT. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT NRN WATERS THIS EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPING ACROSS THE WATER AROUND MIDNIGHT. BRIEF LULL IN SCA SPEEDS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...BUT A NW CAA SURGE
EXPECTED POST FRONTAL. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-5 FT ALL COASTAL ZONES
WITH WAVES 3-4 FT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WEDS MORNING. SE SWELL
MAY KEEP SEAS HOVERING AROUND 5 FT 20 NM OUT THRU WEDS MORNING...BUT
SUBSIDING WEDS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT
WITH FLOW RETURNING TO THE S AOB 15 KT. SLY WINDS INCREASE THURS AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THURS-THURS EVENING WITH SLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT.
SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS ALSO PROGGED TO REACH 5 FT. FLOW BECOMES SW
FRI AS THE FRONT HANGS UP ALONG THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. FRONT
FINALLY CROSSES THE WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT. BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WATER THRU THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THESE WINDS IN
COMBINATION WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO 18 TO 25%
RANGE ACROSS VA AND NORTHEAST NC WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER.
AFTER COORDINATING WITH THE NC AND VA FORESTRY OFFICIALS AND
SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES...WILL MAINTAIN AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT THRU 6 PM. CRITICAL RED FLAG CRITERIA MAY BE MET IN A
FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...10-HR DEAD FUEL
MOISTURE VALUES ARE STILL MARGINAL OR SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING THE
NECESSARY THRESHOLD OF 7%. ON THE EASTERN SHORE...A STATEMENT WILL
NOT BE NECESSARY DUE TO HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB/MPR
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...ALB/SAM
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 312255
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
655 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...AND GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...AND CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LTST MSAS SHOWING CENTER OF THE WEAK LOW DRIFTING SE ERLY THIS
EVENING AND IS CRNTLY LCTD NEAR FORT AP HILL. BEST LIFT AND SPRT
FOR PCPN IS NE OF THIS LOW AND THIS IS VERIFIED BY THE CRNT RADAR
LOOP SHOWING AN AREA OF SHWRS FROM THE NRN NECK ON NE INTO THE LWR
MD ERN SHORE. SOME ENHANCED PCPN NOW SEEN ACROSS DORCHESTER CNTY
SO WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP POPS TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS DORCHESTER
AND WICOMICO CNTYS NEXT FEW HRS. AN AREA OF LIKELY POPS WERE KEPT
IVOF THE LOW TRACK WHICH TAKES IT ACROSS THE MIDDLE CHES BAY AND
ERN SHORE AREAS THROUGH 02Z BEFORE EXITING OFFSHORE. TRAILING
MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE GETTING RUNG OUT WEST OF THERE MAINLY DUE TO
THE VRY DRY AIRMASS OVR THE FA. LITTLE IF ANY PCPN IS MAKING IT TO
THE GROUND. KEPT AN AREA OF CHC POPS POPS MAINLY ALONG AND NE OF
I64 NEXT FEW HRS AS HRRR/RAP/SREF INDICATE SOME LGHT SHWRS ARE
PSBL AS THE TRAILING TROF EXITS OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT.

GUSTY WINDS CONT AHEAD OF THE SYSTM...SO WENT AHEAD AND REPLACED
THE FIRE WEATHER SPS WITH ONE FOR GUSTY WINDS THRU 00Z. WNDS XPCTD
TO DMNSH AFTER DARK AND FRTHR DMNSH AFTR MIDNIGHT.

CONDS DRY OUT QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON WED. A COOLER DAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER-MID 60S FOR INTERIOR SRN VA/NE NC AND IN THE MID- UPPER 50S
CLOSER TO THE COAST AS WINDS TURN ONSHORE IN THE AFTN AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE
LATE WED NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT
IN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 MOST LOCATIONS.
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE
WITHIN A WARMING AIRMASS ESPECIALLY AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP
BY THE AFTN. MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S ONCE
AGAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID- UPPER 60S
AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. INCREASING CLOUDS THU NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND A MORE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS.
IN GENERAL...MODELS ARE SLOWER AT BRINGING IN DEEP MOISTURE AND
THE NRN STREAM AND SRN STREAM ARE SLOWER TO PHASE. HAVE SCALED
BACK A BIT ON POPS FOR FRI...LOOKS LIKE A LOW END CHC FOR MAINLY
-RA FRI MORNING...PRIMARILY ACRS NRN ZONES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. VERY MILD THU NIGHT IN SSW FLOW AND
INCRAESING CLOUDS...LOWS IN THE 50S TO POSSIBLE AS WARM AS 60 F IN
A FEW SPOTS. WARM/VARIABLY CLOUDY FRI WITH 20-30% CHC FOR -SHRA
AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY TSTMS AS THE SFC FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO
THE REGION. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 70S...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO
80F IF ENOUGH SUN CAN PREVAIL. MAIN RAIN EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL FRI NIGHT DESCRIBED IN THE LONG TERM BELOW...

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WET AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. STILL SOME MINOR SPATIAL AND TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WRT ASSOCIATED SRN STREAM ENERGY AND THE
COLD FRONT...BUT MOSTLY NOW WITH HOW QUICK PRECIP CLEARS THE COAST
SAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FRI NIGHT...EXCEPT THE SE. THETA-
E ADVECTION AND MILD TEMPS WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY FRI
EVENING. SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE SHARPENING LAPSE RATES AS TEMPS
ALOFT COOL. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI EVENING. COLD
FRONT EXITS THE COAST SAT AS THE PARENT LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
LIFT INTO THE NE STATES/CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST LATE SAT...REMAINING OVER THE REGION THRU SUN. THE
RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SAT-SUN GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S INLAND
AND MID-UPPER 50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER SERN
CANADA THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE
SUN AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF BEGINS TO SPREAD BACK NWD INTO THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE WLY FLOW CROSS THE REGION. BEGIN TO
REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGHS
MON IN THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ERN SHORE
AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S. HIGHS
TUES IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVE. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT...GUSTY SW WINDS (25-30 KT) ARE EXPECTED TIL AROUND
22-23Z.

A BRIEF -SHRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KSBY THIS EVE. DRY WX AND
VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED WED AND THU. GUSTY SW WINDS MAY AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OVER NRN VA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE OH VALLEY. STRONG GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION BTWN LOW PRESSURE AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE FL COAST HAS
RESULTED IN STRONG SW WINDS OVER THE WATER THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS
GENERALLY 15-25 KT. FEW GUSTS OF 30 KT OBSERVED ON ELEVATED SITES
CLOSET TO LAND...WHERE 30 KT GUSTS ALSO OBSERVED. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3
FT AND WAVES 1-3 FT. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT NRN WATERS THIS EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPING ACROSS THE WATER AROUND MIDNIGHT. BRIEF LULL IN SCA SPEEDS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...BUT A NW CAA SURGE
EXPECTED POST FRONTAL. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-5 FT ALL COASTAL ZONES
WITH WAVES 3-4 FT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WEDS MORNING. SE SWELL
MAY KEEP SEAS HOVERING AROUND 5 FT 20 NM OUT THRU WEDS MORNING...BUT
SUBSIDING WEDS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT
WITH FLOW RETURNING TO THE S AOB 15 KT. SLY WINDS INCREASE THURS AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THURS-THURS EVENING WITH SLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT.
SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS ALSO PROGGED TO REACH 5 FT. FLOW BECOMES SW
FRI AS THE FRONT HANGS UP ALONG THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. FRONT
FINALLY CROSSES THE WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT. BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WATER THRU THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THESE WINDS IN
COMBINATION WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO 18 TO 25%
RANGE ACROSS VA AND NORTHEAST NC WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER.
AFTER COORDINATING WITH THE NC AND VA FORESTRY OFFICIALS AND
SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES...WILL MAINTAIN AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT THRU 6 PM. CRITICAL RED FLAG CRITERIA MAY BE MET IN A
FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...10-HR DEAD FUEL
MOISTURE VALUES ARE STILL MARGINAL OR SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING THE
NECESSARY THRESHOLD OF 7%. ON THE EASTERN SHORE...A STATEMENT WILL
NOT BE NECESSARY DUE TO HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB/MPR
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...ALB/SAM
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 312255
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
655 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...AND GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...AND CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LTST MSAS SHOWING CENTER OF THE WEAK LOW DRIFTING SE ERLY THIS
EVENING AND IS CRNTLY LCTD NEAR FORT AP HILL. BEST LIFT AND SPRT
FOR PCPN IS NE OF THIS LOW AND THIS IS VERIFIED BY THE CRNT RADAR
LOOP SHOWING AN AREA OF SHWRS FROM THE NRN NECK ON NE INTO THE LWR
MD ERN SHORE. SOME ENHANCED PCPN NOW SEEN ACROSS DORCHESTER CNTY
SO WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP POPS TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS DORCHESTER
AND WICOMICO CNTYS NEXT FEW HRS. AN AREA OF LIKELY POPS WERE KEPT
IVOF THE LOW TRACK WHICH TAKES IT ACROSS THE MIDDLE CHES BAY AND
ERN SHORE AREAS THROUGH 02Z BEFORE EXITING OFFSHORE. TRAILING
MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE GETTING RUNG OUT WEST OF THERE MAINLY DUE TO
THE VRY DRY AIRMASS OVR THE FA. LITTLE IF ANY PCPN IS MAKING IT TO
THE GROUND. KEPT AN AREA OF CHC POPS POPS MAINLY ALONG AND NE OF
I64 NEXT FEW HRS AS HRRR/RAP/SREF INDICATE SOME LGHT SHWRS ARE
PSBL AS THE TRAILING TROF EXITS OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT.

GUSTY WINDS CONT AHEAD OF THE SYSTM...SO WENT AHEAD AND REPLACED
THE FIRE WEATHER SPS WITH ONE FOR GUSTY WINDS THRU 00Z. WNDS XPCTD
TO DMNSH AFTER DARK AND FRTHR DMNSH AFTR MIDNIGHT.

CONDS DRY OUT QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON WED. A COOLER DAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER-MID 60S FOR INTERIOR SRN VA/NE NC AND IN THE MID- UPPER 50S
CLOSER TO THE COAST AS WINDS TURN ONSHORE IN THE AFTN AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE
LATE WED NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT
IN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 MOST LOCATIONS.
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE
WITHIN A WARMING AIRMASS ESPECIALLY AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP
BY THE AFTN. MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S ONCE
AGAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID- UPPER 60S
AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. INCREASING CLOUDS THU NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND A MORE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS.
IN GENERAL...MODELS ARE SLOWER AT BRINGING IN DEEP MOISTURE AND
THE NRN STREAM AND SRN STREAM ARE SLOWER TO PHASE. HAVE SCALED
BACK A BIT ON POPS FOR FRI...LOOKS LIKE A LOW END CHC FOR MAINLY
-RA FRI MORNING...PRIMARILY ACRS NRN ZONES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. VERY MILD THU NIGHT IN SSW FLOW AND
INCRAESING CLOUDS...LOWS IN THE 50S TO POSSIBLE AS WARM AS 60 F IN
A FEW SPOTS. WARM/VARIABLY CLOUDY FRI WITH 20-30% CHC FOR -SHRA
AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY TSTMS AS THE SFC FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO
THE REGION. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 70S...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO
80F IF ENOUGH SUN CAN PREVAIL. MAIN RAIN EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL FRI NIGHT DESCRIBED IN THE LONG TERM BELOW...

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WET AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. STILL SOME MINOR SPATIAL AND TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WRT ASSOCIATED SRN STREAM ENERGY AND THE
COLD FRONT...BUT MOSTLY NOW WITH HOW QUICK PRECIP CLEARS THE COAST
SAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FRI NIGHT...EXCEPT THE SE. THETA-
E ADVECTION AND MILD TEMPS WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY FRI
EVENING. SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE SHARPENING LAPSE RATES AS TEMPS
ALOFT COOL. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI EVENING. COLD
FRONT EXITS THE COAST SAT AS THE PARENT LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
LIFT INTO THE NE STATES/CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST LATE SAT...REMAINING OVER THE REGION THRU SUN. THE
RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SAT-SUN GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S INLAND
AND MID-UPPER 50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER SERN
CANADA THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE
SUN AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF BEGINS TO SPREAD BACK NWD INTO THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE WLY FLOW CROSS THE REGION. BEGIN TO
REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGHS
MON IN THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ERN SHORE
AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S. HIGHS
TUES IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVE. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT...GUSTY SW WINDS (25-30 KT) ARE EXPECTED TIL AROUND
22-23Z.

A BRIEF -SHRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KSBY THIS EVE. DRY WX AND
VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED WED AND THU. GUSTY SW WINDS MAY AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OVER NRN VA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE OH VALLEY. STRONG GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION BTWN LOW PRESSURE AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE FL COAST HAS
RESULTED IN STRONG SW WINDS OVER THE WATER THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS
GENERALLY 15-25 KT. FEW GUSTS OF 30 KT OBSERVED ON ELEVATED SITES
CLOSET TO LAND...WHERE 30 KT GUSTS ALSO OBSERVED. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3
FT AND WAVES 1-3 FT. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT NRN WATERS THIS EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPING ACROSS THE WATER AROUND MIDNIGHT. BRIEF LULL IN SCA SPEEDS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...BUT A NW CAA SURGE
EXPECTED POST FRONTAL. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-5 FT ALL COASTAL ZONES
WITH WAVES 3-4 FT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WEDS MORNING. SE SWELL
MAY KEEP SEAS HOVERING AROUND 5 FT 20 NM OUT THRU WEDS MORNING...BUT
SUBSIDING WEDS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT
WITH FLOW RETURNING TO THE S AOB 15 KT. SLY WINDS INCREASE THURS AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THURS-THURS EVENING WITH SLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT.
SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS ALSO PROGGED TO REACH 5 FT. FLOW BECOMES SW
FRI AS THE FRONT HANGS UP ALONG THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. FRONT
FINALLY CROSSES THE WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT. BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WATER THRU THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THESE WINDS IN
COMBINATION WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO 18 TO 25%
RANGE ACROSS VA AND NORTHEAST NC WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER.
AFTER COORDINATING WITH THE NC AND VA FORESTRY OFFICIALS AND
SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES...WILL MAINTAIN AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT THRU 6 PM. CRITICAL RED FLAG CRITERIA MAY BE MET IN A
FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...10-HR DEAD FUEL
MOISTURE VALUES ARE STILL MARGINAL OR SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING THE
NECESSARY THRESHOLD OF 7%. ON THE EASTERN SHORE...A STATEMENT WILL
NOT BE NECESSARY DUE TO HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB/MPR
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...ALB/SAM
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 312255
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
655 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...AND GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...AND CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LTST MSAS SHOWING CENTER OF THE WEAK LOW DRIFTING SE ERLY THIS
EVENING AND IS CRNTLY LCTD NEAR FORT AP HILL. BEST LIFT AND SPRT
FOR PCPN IS NE OF THIS LOW AND THIS IS VERIFIED BY THE CRNT RADAR
LOOP SHOWING AN AREA OF SHWRS FROM THE NRN NECK ON NE INTO THE LWR
MD ERN SHORE. SOME ENHANCED PCPN NOW SEEN ACROSS DORCHESTER CNTY
SO WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP POPS TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS DORCHESTER
AND WICOMICO CNTYS NEXT FEW HRS. AN AREA OF LIKELY POPS WERE KEPT
IVOF THE LOW TRACK WHICH TAKES IT ACROSS THE MIDDLE CHES BAY AND
ERN SHORE AREAS THROUGH 02Z BEFORE EXITING OFFSHORE. TRAILING
MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE GETTING RUNG OUT WEST OF THERE MAINLY DUE TO
THE VRY DRY AIRMASS OVR THE FA. LITTLE IF ANY PCPN IS MAKING IT TO
THE GROUND. KEPT AN AREA OF CHC POPS POPS MAINLY ALONG AND NE OF
I64 NEXT FEW HRS AS HRRR/RAP/SREF INDICATE SOME LGHT SHWRS ARE
PSBL AS THE TRAILING TROF EXITS OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT.

GUSTY WINDS CONT AHEAD OF THE SYSTM...SO WENT AHEAD AND REPLACED
THE FIRE WEATHER SPS WITH ONE FOR GUSTY WINDS THRU 00Z. WNDS XPCTD
TO DMNSH AFTER DARK AND FRTHR DMNSH AFTR MIDNIGHT.

CONDS DRY OUT QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON WED. A COOLER DAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER-MID 60S FOR INTERIOR SRN VA/NE NC AND IN THE MID- UPPER 50S
CLOSER TO THE COAST AS WINDS TURN ONSHORE IN THE AFTN AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE
LATE WED NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT
IN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 MOST LOCATIONS.
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE
WITHIN A WARMING AIRMASS ESPECIALLY AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP
BY THE AFTN. MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S ONCE
AGAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID- UPPER 60S
AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. INCREASING CLOUDS THU NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND A MORE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS.
IN GENERAL...MODELS ARE SLOWER AT BRINGING IN DEEP MOISTURE AND
THE NRN STREAM AND SRN STREAM ARE SLOWER TO PHASE. HAVE SCALED
BACK A BIT ON POPS FOR FRI...LOOKS LIKE A LOW END CHC FOR MAINLY
-RA FRI MORNING...PRIMARILY ACRS NRN ZONES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. VERY MILD THU NIGHT IN SSW FLOW AND
INCRAESING CLOUDS...LOWS IN THE 50S TO POSSIBLE AS WARM AS 60 F IN
A FEW SPOTS. WARM/VARIABLY CLOUDY FRI WITH 20-30% CHC FOR -SHRA
AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY TSTMS AS THE SFC FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO
THE REGION. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 70S...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO
80F IF ENOUGH SUN CAN PREVAIL. MAIN RAIN EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL FRI NIGHT DESCRIBED IN THE LONG TERM BELOW...

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WET AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. STILL SOME MINOR SPATIAL AND TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WRT ASSOCIATED SRN STREAM ENERGY AND THE
COLD FRONT...BUT MOSTLY NOW WITH HOW QUICK PRECIP CLEARS THE COAST
SAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FRI NIGHT...EXCEPT THE SE. THETA-
E ADVECTION AND MILD TEMPS WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY FRI
EVENING. SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE SHARPENING LAPSE RATES AS TEMPS
ALOFT COOL. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI EVENING. COLD
FRONT EXITS THE COAST SAT AS THE PARENT LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
LIFT INTO THE NE STATES/CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST LATE SAT...REMAINING OVER THE REGION THRU SUN. THE
RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SAT-SUN GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S INLAND
AND MID-UPPER 50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER SERN
CANADA THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE
SUN AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF BEGINS TO SPREAD BACK NWD INTO THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE WLY FLOW CROSS THE REGION. BEGIN TO
REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGHS
MON IN THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ERN SHORE
AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S. HIGHS
TUES IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVE. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT...GUSTY SW WINDS (25-30 KT) ARE EXPECTED TIL AROUND
22-23Z.

A BRIEF -SHRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KSBY THIS EVE. DRY WX AND
VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED WED AND THU. GUSTY SW WINDS MAY AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OVER NRN VA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE OH VALLEY. STRONG GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION BTWN LOW PRESSURE AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE FL COAST HAS
RESULTED IN STRONG SW WINDS OVER THE WATER THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS
GENERALLY 15-25 KT. FEW GUSTS OF 30 KT OBSERVED ON ELEVATED SITES
CLOSET TO LAND...WHERE 30 KT GUSTS ALSO OBSERVED. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3
FT AND WAVES 1-3 FT. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT NRN WATERS THIS EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPING ACROSS THE WATER AROUND MIDNIGHT. BRIEF LULL IN SCA SPEEDS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...BUT A NW CAA SURGE
EXPECTED POST FRONTAL. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-5 FT ALL COASTAL ZONES
WITH WAVES 3-4 FT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WEDS MORNING. SE SWELL
MAY KEEP SEAS HOVERING AROUND 5 FT 20 NM OUT THRU WEDS MORNING...BUT
SUBSIDING WEDS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT
WITH FLOW RETURNING TO THE S AOB 15 KT. SLY WINDS INCREASE THURS AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THURS-THURS EVENING WITH SLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT.
SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS ALSO PROGGED TO REACH 5 FT. FLOW BECOMES SW
FRI AS THE FRONT HANGS UP ALONG THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. FRONT
FINALLY CROSSES THE WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT. BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WATER THRU THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THESE WINDS IN
COMBINATION WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO 18 TO 25%
RANGE ACROSS VA AND NORTHEAST NC WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER.
AFTER COORDINATING WITH THE NC AND VA FORESTRY OFFICIALS AND
SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES...WILL MAINTAIN AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT THRU 6 PM. CRITICAL RED FLAG CRITERIA MAY BE MET IN A
FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...10-HR DEAD FUEL
MOISTURE VALUES ARE STILL MARGINAL OR SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING THE
NECESSARY THRESHOLD OF 7%. ON THE EASTERN SHORE...A STATEMENT WILL
NOT BE NECESSARY DUE TO HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB/MPR
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...ALB/SAM
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 312255
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
655 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...AND GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...AND CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LTST MSAS SHOWING CENTER OF THE WEAK LOW DRIFTING SE ERLY THIS
EVENING AND IS CRNTLY LCTD NEAR FORT AP HILL. BEST LIFT AND SPRT
FOR PCPN IS NE OF THIS LOW AND THIS IS VERIFIED BY THE CRNT RADAR
LOOP SHOWING AN AREA OF SHWRS FROM THE NRN NECK ON NE INTO THE LWR
MD ERN SHORE. SOME ENHANCED PCPN NOW SEEN ACROSS DORCHESTER CNTY
SO WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP POPS TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS DORCHESTER
AND WICOMICO CNTYS NEXT FEW HRS. AN AREA OF LIKELY POPS WERE KEPT
IVOF THE LOW TRACK WHICH TAKES IT ACROSS THE MIDDLE CHES BAY AND
ERN SHORE AREAS THROUGH 02Z BEFORE EXITING OFFSHORE. TRAILING
MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE GETTING RUNG OUT WEST OF THERE MAINLY DUE TO
THE VRY DRY AIRMASS OVR THE FA. LITTLE IF ANY PCPN IS MAKING IT TO
THE GROUND. KEPT AN AREA OF CHC POPS POPS MAINLY ALONG AND NE OF
I64 NEXT FEW HRS AS HRRR/RAP/SREF INDICATE SOME LGHT SHWRS ARE
PSBL AS THE TRAILING TROF EXITS OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT.

GUSTY WINDS CONT AHEAD OF THE SYSTM...SO WENT AHEAD AND REPLACED
THE FIRE WEATHER SPS WITH ONE FOR GUSTY WINDS THRU 00Z. WNDS XPCTD
TO DMNSH AFTER DARK AND FRTHR DMNSH AFTR MIDNIGHT.

CONDS DRY OUT QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON WED. A COOLER DAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER-MID 60S FOR INTERIOR SRN VA/NE NC AND IN THE MID- UPPER 50S
CLOSER TO THE COAST AS WINDS TURN ONSHORE IN THE AFTN AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE
LATE WED NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT
IN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 MOST LOCATIONS.
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE
WITHIN A WARMING AIRMASS ESPECIALLY AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP
BY THE AFTN. MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S ONCE
AGAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID- UPPER 60S
AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. INCREASING CLOUDS THU NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND A MORE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS.
IN GENERAL...MODELS ARE SLOWER AT BRINGING IN DEEP MOISTURE AND
THE NRN STREAM AND SRN STREAM ARE SLOWER TO PHASE. HAVE SCALED
BACK A BIT ON POPS FOR FRI...LOOKS LIKE A LOW END CHC FOR MAINLY
-RA FRI MORNING...PRIMARILY ACRS NRN ZONES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. VERY MILD THU NIGHT IN SSW FLOW AND
INCRAESING CLOUDS...LOWS IN THE 50S TO POSSIBLE AS WARM AS 60 F IN
A FEW SPOTS. WARM/VARIABLY CLOUDY FRI WITH 20-30% CHC FOR -SHRA
AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY TSTMS AS THE SFC FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO
THE REGION. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 70S...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO
80F IF ENOUGH SUN CAN PREVAIL. MAIN RAIN EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL FRI NIGHT DESCRIBED IN THE LONG TERM BELOW...

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WET AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. STILL SOME MINOR SPATIAL AND TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WRT ASSOCIATED SRN STREAM ENERGY AND THE
COLD FRONT...BUT MOSTLY NOW WITH HOW QUICK PRECIP CLEARS THE COAST
SAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FRI NIGHT...EXCEPT THE SE. THETA-
E ADVECTION AND MILD TEMPS WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY FRI
EVENING. SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE SHARPENING LAPSE RATES AS TEMPS
ALOFT COOL. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI EVENING. COLD
FRONT EXITS THE COAST SAT AS THE PARENT LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
LIFT INTO THE NE STATES/CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST LATE SAT...REMAINING OVER THE REGION THRU SUN. THE
RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SAT-SUN GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S INLAND
AND MID-UPPER 50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER SERN
CANADA THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE
SUN AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF BEGINS TO SPREAD BACK NWD INTO THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE WLY FLOW CROSS THE REGION. BEGIN TO
REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGHS
MON IN THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ERN SHORE
AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S. HIGHS
TUES IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVE. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT...GUSTY SW WINDS (25-30 KT) ARE EXPECTED TIL AROUND
22-23Z.

A BRIEF -SHRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KSBY THIS EVE. DRY WX AND
VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED WED AND THU. GUSTY SW WINDS MAY AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OVER NRN VA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE OH VALLEY. STRONG GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION BTWN LOW PRESSURE AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE FL COAST HAS
RESULTED IN STRONG SW WINDS OVER THE WATER THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS
GENERALLY 15-25 KT. FEW GUSTS OF 30 KT OBSERVED ON ELEVATED SITES
CLOSET TO LAND...WHERE 30 KT GUSTS ALSO OBSERVED. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3
FT AND WAVES 1-3 FT. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT NRN WATERS THIS EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPING ACROSS THE WATER AROUND MIDNIGHT. BRIEF LULL IN SCA SPEEDS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...BUT A NW CAA SURGE
EXPECTED POST FRONTAL. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-5 FT ALL COASTAL ZONES
WITH WAVES 3-4 FT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WEDS MORNING. SE SWELL
MAY KEEP SEAS HOVERING AROUND 5 FT 20 NM OUT THRU WEDS MORNING...BUT
SUBSIDING WEDS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT
WITH FLOW RETURNING TO THE S AOB 15 KT. SLY WINDS INCREASE THURS AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THURS-THURS EVENING WITH SLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT.
SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS ALSO PROGGED TO REACH 5 FT. FLOW BECOMES SW
FRI AS THE FRONT HANGS UP ALONG THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. FRONT
FINALLY CROSSES THE WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT. BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WATER THRU THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THESE WINDS IN
COMBINATION WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO 18 TO 25%
RANGE ACROSS VA AND NORTHEAST NC WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER.
AFTER COORDINATING WITH THE NC AND VA FORESTRY OFFICIALS AND
SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES...WILL MAINTAIN AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT THRU 6 PM. CRITICAL RED FLAG CRITERIA MAY BE MET IN A
FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...10-HR DEAD FUEL
MOISTURE VALUES ARE STILL MARGINAL OR SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING THE
NECESSARY THRESHOLD OF 7%. ON THE EASTERN SHORE...A STATEMENT WILL
NOT BE NECESSARY DUE TO HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB/MPR
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...ALB/SAM
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 312255
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
655 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...AND GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...AND CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LTST MSAS SHOWING CENTER OF THE WEAK LOW DRIFTING SE ERLY THIS
EVENING AND IS CRNTLY LCTD NEAR FORT AP HILL. BEST LIFT AND SPRT
FOR PCPN IS NE OF THIS LOW AND THIS IS VERIFIED BY THE CRNT RADAR
LOOP SHOWING AN AREA OF SHWRS FROM THE NRN NECK ON NE INTO THE LWR
MD ERN SHORE. SOME ENHANCED PCPN NOW SEEN ACROSS DORCHESTER CNTY
SO WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP POPS TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS DORCHESTER
AND WICOMICO CNTYS NEXT FEW HRS. AN AREA OF LIKELY POPS WERE KEPT
IVOF THE LOW TRACK WHICH TAKES IT ACROSS THE MIDDLE CHES BAY AND
ERN SHORE AREAS THROUGH 02Z BEFORE EXITING OFFSHORE. TRAILING
MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE GETTING RUNG OUT WEST OF THERE MAINLY DUE TO
THE VRY DRY AIRMASS OVR THE FA. LITTLE IF ANY PCPN IS MAKING IT TO
THE GROUND. KEPT AN AREA OF CHC POPS POPS MAINLY ALONG AND NE OF
I64 NEXT FEW HRS AS HRRR/RAP/SREF INDICATE SOME LGHT SHWRS ARE
PSBL AS THE TRAILING TROF EXITS OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT.

GUSTY WINDS CONT AHEAD OF THE SYSTM...SO WENT AHEAD AND REPLACED
THE FIRE WEATHER SPS WITH ONE FOR GUSTY WINDS THRU 00Z. WNDS XPCTD
TO DMNSH AFTER DARK AND FRTHR DMNSH AFTR MIDNIGHT.

CONDS DRY OUT QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON WED. A COOLER DAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER-MID 60S FOR INTERIOR SRN VA/NE NC AND IN THE MID- UPPER 50S
CLOSER TO THE COAST AS WINDS TURN ONSHORE IN THE AFTN AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE
LATE WED NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT
IN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 MOST LOCATIONS.
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE
WITHIN A WARMING AIRMASS ESPECIALLY AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP
BY THE AFTN. MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S ONCE
AGAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID- UPPER 60S
AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. INCREASING CLOUDS THU NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND A MORE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS.
IN GENERAL...MODELS ARE SLOWER AT BRINGING IN DEEP MOISTURE AND
THE NRN STREAM AND SRN STREAM ARE SLOWER TO PHASE. HAVE SCALED
BACK A BIT ON POPS FOR FRI...LOOKS LIKE A LOW END CHC FOR MAINLY
-RA FRI MORNING...PRIMARILY ACRS NRN ZONES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. VERY MILD THU NIGHT IN SSW FLOW AND
INCRAESING CLOUDS...LOWS IN THE 50S TO POSSIBLE AS WARM AS 60 F IN
A FEW SPOTS. WARM/VARIABLY CLOUDY FRI WITH 20-30% CHC FOR -SHRA
AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY TSTMS AS THE SFC FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO
THE REGION. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 70S...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO
80F IF ENOUGH SUN CAN PREVAIL. MAIN RAIN EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL FRI NIGHT DESCRIBED IN THE LONG TERM BELOW...

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WET AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. STILL SOME MINOR SPATIAL AND TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WRT ASSOCIATED SRN STREAM ENERGY AND THE
COLD FRONT...BUT MOSTLY NOW WITH HOW QUICK PRECIP CLEARS THE COAST
SAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FRI NIGHT...EXCEPT THE SE. THETA-
E ADVECTION AND MILD TEMPS WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY FRI
EVENING. SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE SHARPENING LAPSE RATES AS TEMPS
ALOFT COOL. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI EVENING. COLD
FRONT EXITS THE COAST SAT AS THE PARENT LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
LIFT INTO THE NE STATES/CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST LATE SAT...REMAINING OVER THE REGION THRU SUN. THE
RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SAT-SUN GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S INLAND
AND MID-UPPER 50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER SERN
CANADA THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE
SUN AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF BEGINS TO SPREAD BACK NWD INTO THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE WLY FLOW CROSS THE REGION. BEGIN TO
REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGHS
MON IN THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ERN SHORE
AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S. HIGHS
TUES IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVE. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT...GUSTY SW WINDS (25-30 KT) ARE EXPECTED TIL AROUND
22-23Z.

A BRIEF -SHRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KSBY THIS EVE. DRY WX AND
VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED WED AND THU. GUSTY SW WINDS MAY AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OVER NRN VA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE OH VALLEY. STRONG GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION BTWN LOW PRESSURE AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE FL COAST HAS
RESULTED IN STRONG SW WINDS OVER THE WATER THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS
GENERALLY 15-25 KT. FEW GUSTS OF 30 KT OBSERVED ON ELEVATED SITES
CLOSET TO LAND...WHERE 30 KT GUSTS ALSO OBSERVED. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3
FT AND WAVES 1-3 FT. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT NRN WATERS THIS EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPING ACROSS THE WATER AROUND MIDNIGHT. BRIEF LULL IN SCA SPEEDS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...BUT A NW CAA SURGE
EXPECTED POST FRONTAL. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-5 FT ALL COASTAL ZONES
WITH WAVES 3-4 FT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WEDS MORNING. SE SWELL
MAY KEEP SEAS HOVERING AROUND 5 FT 20 NM OUT THRU WEDS MORNING...BUT
SUBSIDING WEDS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT
WITH FLOW RETURNING TO THE S AOB 15 KT. SLY WINDS INCREASE THURS AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THURS-THURS EVENING WITH SLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT.
SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS ALSO PROGGED TO REACH 5 FT. FLOW BECOMES SW
FRI AS THE FRONT HANGS UP ALONG THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. FRONT
FINALLY CROSSES THE WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT. BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WATER THRU THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THESE WINDS IN
COMBINATION WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO 18 TO 25%
RANGE ACROSS VA AND NORTHEAST NC WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER.
AFTER COORDINATING WITH THE NC AND VA FORESTRY OFFICIALS AND
SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES...WILL MAINTAIN AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT THRU 6 PM. CRITICAL RED FLAG CRITERIA MAY BE MET IN A
FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...10-HR DEAD FUEL
MOISTURE VALUES ARE STILL MARGINAL OR SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING THE
NECESSARY THRESHOLD OF 7%. ON THE EASTERN SHORE...A STATEMENT WILL
NOT BE NECESSARY DUE TO HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB/MPR
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...ALB/SAM
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KLWX 312215
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
615 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE TO EXTEND WIND ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH 9 PM
THIS EVENING. THE RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 8 PM FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY...CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
EASTERN HIGHLAND COUNTY. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT HAVE WARMED INTO THE 60S WITH A FEW 70 DEGREE READINGS OVER
CENTRAL VA. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL BE COMMON...EXCEPT
UP TO 50 MPH ABOVE 1500 FEET WITHIN THE BLUE RIDGE AND POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON DC METRO AREAS AND SURROUNDING
SUBURBS TO THE NORTH AND WEST. BUFKIT PROFILES INDICATED AN
INVERTED-V SUBCLOUD LAYER AND THIN CAPE...INDICATIVE OF GUSTY WIND
POTENTIAL. ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING DOWN STRONGER WIND GUSTS AOA 40 MPH. THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CLEAR THE BAY COMMUNITIES AROUND 03Z.

FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
OCCUR WITH A COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES.
PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.

MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS...EVEN A FEW 20S OUT WEST
AND NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE.

HIGH PRESURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING
A RETURN TO SUNSHINE BUT WITH COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S
TO NEAR 60 IN SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAKE ABOUT A TWO-DAY VISIT DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK...ATTEMPTING TO HANG ON THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AS ANOTHER COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE EFFECT ON
THU FROM THIS HIGH WILL BE ANOTHER WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE DAY IN TERMS
OF TEMPS. S-SW WINDS CHANNELING THRU THE VLYS OF THE APLCNS WILL
BRING TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S AND POSSIBLY SOME L80S...WHILE THE
PIEDMONT/COASTAL REGION STAYS A BIT MORE MODERATED BUT STILL NEAR
THE 70F DEG MARK BY MID AFTN.

MEANWHILE...A LARGE BUT FAIRLY DISORGANIZED FETCH OF GULF MOISTURE
WILL BE COLLECTING OVER THE MS RVR VLY AND DEEP SOUTH...AS A SERIES
OF UPPER WAVES BEGIN TO SHAPE IT WELL TO OUR WEST. A LONG
OUTSTRETCHED WARM FRONTAL REGION WILL BE SET UP TO OUR NORTH...FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST TO NEW ENGLAND AS WE HEAD INTO FRI. PLENTY OF
PRECIP WILL BE HANGING AROUND THIS BOUNDARY...STAYING LARGELY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE AREA UNTIL DAWN FRI. A WEAKER LOW PRES SYSTEM THAT
WILL DEVELOP THU NIGHT INTO FRI WILL SLIDE UP TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND...BUT A MORE POTENT LOW WILL BE FORMING OVER THE LOWER OHIO
RVR VLY. THE LOW WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH AS IT APPROACHES...BUT THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE STRENGTHENING THRU THE DAYTIME HRS. POCKETS OF
PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY...AS TEMPS RISE BACK INTO THE 60S/70S. THE COLD FRONT
WILL THEN MOVE THRU THE REGION LATE INTO THE NIGHTTIME HRS.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON WHATEVER LEFTOVER INSTABILITY
THERE IS FROM THE AFTN/EVE HEATING AND MAY COME IN TOO LATE TO
MAXIMIZE THIS POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THE LOW-MID SHEAR WILL BE POTENT
ENOUGH TO DRIVE AN ORGANIZED LINE - ALBEIT SHALLOW - BUT ENOUGH TO
MIX DOWN GUSTY WINDS IN ISOLATED AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WHILE
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE FROM NORTHERN TX/OK. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE SYSTEMS MAY BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE
CWA ENDING LATE SAT MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME UPSLOPE
PRECIP TO THE WEST MAY LAST LONGER. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO MON
NIGHT.

WINDY CONDITIONS FROM FRI INTO SAT NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR SAT NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST AT ALL TERMINAL SITES INTO THIS EVENING.
WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS WILL BE COMMON AT
THE TERMINALS. SHOWERS...PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FROM KDCA TO KMTN TO KBWI TO KMRB. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONGER WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KTS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
LATER THIS EVENING AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS. VFR WILL PERSIST ON WEDNESDAY.

SOLID VFR CONDS ON THU AS A LOW PRES SYSTEM APPROACHES INTO EARLY
FRI. THIS SYSTEM WILL TAKE A COUPLE OF DAYS TO PASS
COMPLETELY...W/ SOME ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY W/ A COLD FRONT
LATE FRI NIGHT AND RAIN SHOWERS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE.

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS REGION FRI NIGHT... BRINGING RAINY
CONDITIONS THROUGH SAT. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS FOR LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTY WINDS OCCURRING OVER THE WATERS. GALE CONDITIONS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF MIXING DOWN
30 TO 40 KT WIND GUSTS. ALL OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD CLEAR THE
WATERS BY 04Z. GALE WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL MIDNIGHT...AND SCA
WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE DURING THE DAY.

HIGH PRES MOVING OFFSHORE WED NIGHT INTO THU WILL CREATE PRES
GRADIENT STRONG ENOUGH FOR SCA CONDS OVER THE WATERS BOTH THU AND
FRI AFTNS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU THE REGION LATE FRI
NIGHT.

SCA LIKELY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BEHIND COLD AS WINDY CONDITIONS
DEVELOP. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS LATE SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING FOR SEVERAL VIRGINIA COUNTIES IN THE
HIGHLANDS...SHENANDOAH VALLEY...BLUE RIDGE AND CENTRAL FOOTHILLS.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ALONG WITH RH VALUES
BELOW 30 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DCZ001.
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ011-013-014-
     016>018-503>506.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ025>027-029-
     503-504-507-508.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ025-036-
     037-504-508.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ028-030-031-
     036>040-050>057-501-502-505-506.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR WVZ055-501-502-
     505-506.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ050>053-503-
     504.
MARINE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-540>543.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530-531-535-536-538-539.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...IR
AVIATION...GMS/IR/KRW
MARINE...GMS/IR/KRW
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KLWX 312215
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
615 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE TO EXTEND WIND ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH 9 PM
THIS EVENING. THE RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 8 PM FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY...CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
EASTERN HIGHLAND COUNTY. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT HAVE WARMED INTO THE 60S WITH A FEW 70 DEGREE READINGS OVER
CENTRAL VA. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL BE COMMON...EXCEPT
UP TO 50 MPH ABOVE 1500 FEET WITHIN THE BLUE RIDGE AND POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON DC METRO AREAS AND SURROUNDING
SUBURBS TO THE NORTH AND WEST. BUFKIT PROFILES INDICATED AN
INVERTED-V SUBCLOUD LAYER AND THIN CAPE...INDICATIVE OF GUSTY WIND
POTENTIAL. ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING DOWN STRONGER WIND GUSTS AOA 40 MPH. THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CLEAR THE BAY COMMUNITIES AROUND 03Z.

FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
OCCUR WITH A COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES.
PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.

MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS...EVEN A FEW 20S OUT WEST
AND NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE.

HIGH PRESURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING
A RETURN TO SUNSHINE BUT WITH COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S
TO NEAR 60 IN SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAKE ABOUT A TWO-DAY VISIT DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK...ATTEMPTING TO HANG ON THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AS ANOTHER COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE EFFECT ON
THU FROM THIS HIGH WILL BE ANOTHER WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE DAY IN TERMS
OF TEMPS. S-SW WINDS CHANNELING THRU THE VLYS OF THE APLCNS WILL
BRING TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S AND POSSIBLY SOME L80S...WHILE THE
PIEDMONT/COASTAL REGION STAYS A BIT MORE MODERATED BUT STILL NEAR
THE 70F DEG MARK BY MID AFTN.

MEANWHILE...A LARGE BUT FAIRLY DISORGANIZED FETCH OF GULF MOISTURE
WILL BE COLLECTING OVER THE MS RVR VLY AND DEEP SOUTH...AS A SERIES
OF UPPER WAVES BEGIN TO SHAPE IT WELL TO OUR WEST. A LONG
OUTSTRETCHED WARM FRONTAL REGION WILL BE SET UP TO OUR NORTH...FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST TO NEW ENGLAND AS WE HEAD INTO FRI. PLENTY OF
PRECIP WILL BE HANGING AROUND THIS BOUNDARY...STAYING LARGELY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE AREA UNTIL DAWN FRI. A WEAKER LOW PRES SYSTEM THAT
WILL DEVELOP THU NIGHT INTO FRI WILL SLIDE UP TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND...BUT A MORE POTENT LOW WILL BE FORMING OVER THE LOWER OHIO
RVR VLY. THE LOW WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH AS IT APPROACHES...BUT THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE STRENGTHENING THRU THE DAYTIME HRS. POCKETS OF
PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY...AS TEMPS RISE BACK INTO THE 60S/70S. THE COLD FRONT
WILL THEN MOVE THRU THE REGION LATE INTO THE NIGHTTIME HRS.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON WHATEVER LEFTOVER INSTABILITY
THERE IS FROM THE AFTN/EVE HEATING AND MAY COME IN TOO LATE TO
MAXIMIZE THIS POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THE LOW-MID SHEAR WILL BE POTENT
ENOUGH TO DRIVE AN ORGANIZED LINE - ALBEIT SHALLOW - BUT ENOUGH TO
MIX DOWN GUSTY WINDS IN ISOLATED AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WHILE
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE FROM NORTHERN TX/OK. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE SYSTEMS MAY BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE
CWA ENDING LATE SAT MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME UPSLOPE
PRECIP TO THE WEST MAY LAST LONGER. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO MON
NIGHT.

WINDY CONDITIONS FROM FRI INTO SAT NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR SAT NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST AT ALL TERMINAL SITES INTO THIS EVENING.
WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS WILL BE COMMON AT
THE TERMINALS. SHOWERS...PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FROM KDCA TO KMTN TO KBWI TO KMRB. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONGER WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KTS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
LATER THIS EVENING AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS. VFR WILL PERSIST ON WEDNESDAY.

SOLID VFR CONDS ON THU AS A LOW PRES SYSTEM APPROACHES INTO EARLY
FRI. THIS SYSTEM WILL TAKE A COUPLE OF DAYS TO PASS
COMPLETELY...W/ SOME ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY W/ A COLD FRONT
LATE FRI NIGHT AND RAIN SHOWERS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE.

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS REGION FRI NIGHT... BRINGING RAINY
CONDITIONS THROUGH SAT. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS FOR LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTY WINDS OCCURRING OVER THE WATERS. GALE CONDITIONS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF MIXING DOWN
30 TO 40 KT WIND GUSTS. ALL OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD CLEAR THE
WATERS BY 04Z. GALE WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL MIDNIGHT...AND SCA
WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE DURING THE DAY.

HIGH PRES MOVING OFFSHORE WED NIGHT INTO THU WILL CREATE PRES
GRADIENT STRONG ENOUGH FOR SCA CONDS OVER THE WATERS BOTH THU AND
FRI AFTNS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU THE REGION LATE FRI
NIGHT.

SCA LIKELY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BEHIND COLD AS WINDY CONDITIONS
DEVELOP. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS LATE SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING FOR SEVERAL VIRGINIA COUNTIES IN THE
HIGHLANDS...SHENANDOAH VALLEY...BLUE RIDGE AND CENTRAL FOOTHILLS.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ALONG WITH RH VALUES
BELOW 30 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DCZ001.
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ011-013-014-
     016>018-503>506.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ025>027-029-
     503-504-507-508.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ025-036-
     037-504-508.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ028-030-031-
     036>040-050>057-501-502-505-506.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR WVZ055-501-502-
     505-506.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ050>053-503-
     504.
MARINE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-540>543.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530-531-535-536-538-539.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...IR
AVIATION...GMS/IR/KRW
MARINE...GMS/IR/KRW
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 312122 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
522 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES A MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEDNESDAY.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE THURSDAY...BEFORE A WET WEATHER SYSTEM
CLOSES OUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
530PM UPDATE...MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS USING CURRENT RADAR PICS
AND HRRR DATA. TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED WITH LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE.
SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING THE SOUTHEAST SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND
SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM THE NORTH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SURFACE LOW DROPPING ACROSS WESTERN PA INTO THE
APPALACHIANS CURRENTLY...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY RECENTLY PASSING
THROUGH PIT. STEADIER PRECIP HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST...BUT SOME
SCATTERED POST-FRONTAL SHRA ARE FIRING IN MODEST INSTABILITY.
EXPECT THESE TO PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE FRONT OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KEPT THE THUNDER CHANCES GOING IN THE
SOUTHEAST BEFORE SUNSET...WHERE MORE SUN HAS BEEN SEEN TODAY. ONLY
EXPECT A FEW LINGERING SHRA AROUND 00Z IN THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE
ENDING DURING THE EVENING. 25-35 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH
DURING THAT TIME AS WELL.

BAND OF POST-FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL SWING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING
AS WELL. A SHORT PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS. THEN...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY IN
MICHIGAN YOOPER COUNTRY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND
12Z. EXPECT THIS TO MANIFEST MAINLY IN THE FORM OF REINFORCED
CLOUD COVER...BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH JUICE TO GET A FEW
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80 BY SUNRISE.

PREVIOUS LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS AT THE LOWER END OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. CONSIDERING THE WIND AND EXPECTED
CLOUDS...RAISED TEMPERATURES MORE TOWARDS THE MEAN OF THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEYOND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES AND SOME CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AS IT PASSES JUST NORTH OF
THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY....EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WIND SHIFT
TO THE SW IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AND WHILE RIDGE
WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST...THINK THAT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL
BE ALLOWED TO DECOUPLE. THUS...OPTED TO STAY CLOSER TO THE
MOS/ECMWF VALUES AND NOT THE WARMER NAME TEMPS.

COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MAKE IT`S APPROACH THURSDAY...WITH
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS
SHOULD...DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...BRINGING TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 60`S AND LOWER 70`S ACROSS THE REGION AS 850HPA
TEMPS APPROACH +10C. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SLOW WITH THE
BOUNDARY SO VERY LOW POPS WERE KEPT IN THE FORECAST UNTIL LATE.
HOWEVER...THE NAM AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE ECMWF...SUGGEST AN
AREA OF MOISTURE MAY BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO SOME OF THE REGION BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE PLACEMENT AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THESE SHOWERS...THOUGHT IT BEST TO JUST KEEP POPS
LOW FOR NOW. VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT
IN GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH THURSDAY AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER MAY
BE POSSIBLE LATE WITH THIN CAPE SUGGESTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS.

COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY WHEN A UPPER WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOP
AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
THE STRENGTH OF THIS LOW AND PLACEMENT BUT LIKELY TO LOW-CATEGORICAL
POPS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN ELEVATED UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES LATE FRIDAY...BUT
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM BEING AS WARM AS THEY WERE ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DRYING TREND IS INDICATED FOR THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. THE COOL DOWN
WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT THOUGH AS FLAT RIDGING IS ECMWF AND GFS
PROGGED TO BUILD AND MODERATE TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FKL/DUJ REMAIN AT IFR/LIFR IN THE COLDER AIRMASS. EXPECT SOME
IMPROVEMENT BY 21Z OR THEREAFTER AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE
NORTH. SOME SCATTERED SHRA ARE ALSO OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
NEAR LBE/MGW BEFORE 00Z...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF.
OTHER SITES AT VFR CURRENTLY...BUT EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING IN POST-FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS IN
COLD ADVECTION PATTERN. CIGS WILL THEN LIFT BACK TO MVFR DURING
THE NIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF MAINLY SCT CLOUD COVERAGE.
HOWEVER...WEAK SYSTEM DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SHOULD
REESTABLISH SOME CLOUD COVER ACROSS WESTERN PA/NORTHERN WV AFTER
10Z. EXPECTING CIGS TO REMAIN VFR AT THIS TIME...WITH POSSIBLY A
FEW ISOLATED SHSN.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THE CROSSING OF LOW PRESSURE ON
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KLWX 312041
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
441 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
...UPDATE TO EXTEND WIND ADVISORY FOR RIDGE TOPS OF BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS UNTIL MIDNIGHT. THE GALE WARNING
ALSO GOES UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR THE WATERS...

LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT HAVE WARMED INTO THE 60S WITH A FEW 70 DEGREE READINGS OVER
CENTRAL VA. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL BE COMMON...EXCEPT
UP TO 50 MPH ABOVE 1500 FEET WITHIN THE BLUE RIDGE AND POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON DC METRO AREAS AND SURROUNDING
SUBURBS TO THE NORTH AND WEST. BUFKIT PROFILES INDICATED AN
INVERTED-V SUBCLOUD LAYER AND THIN CAPE...INDICATIVE OF GUSTY WIND
POTENTIAL. ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING DOWN STRONGER WIND GUSTS AOA 40 MPH. THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CLEAR THE BAY COMMUNITIES AROUND 03Z.

FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
OCCUR WITH A COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES.
PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.

MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS...EVEN A FEW 20S OUT WEST
AND NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE.

HIGH PRESURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING
A RETURN TO SUNSHINE BUT WITH COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S
TO NEAR 60 IN SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAKE ABOUT A TWO-DAY VISIT DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK...ATTEMPTING TO HANG ON THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AS ANOTHER COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE EFFECT ON
THU FROM THIS HIGH WILL BE ANOTHER WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE DAY IN TERMS
OF TEMPS. S-SW WINDS CHANNELING THRU THE VLYS OF THE APLCNS WILL
BRING TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S AND POSSIBLY SOME L80S...WHILE THE
PIEDMONT/COASTAL REGION STAYS A BIT MORE MODERATED BUT STILL NEAR
THE 70F DEG MARK BY MID AFTN.

MEANWHILE...A LARGE BUT FAIRLY DISORGANIZED FETCH OF GULF MOISTURE
WILL BE COLLECTING OVER THE MS RVR VLY AND DEEP SOUTH...AS A SERIES
OF UPPER WAVES BEGIN TO SHAPE IT WELL TO OUR WEST. A LONG
OUTSTRETCHED WARM FRONTAL REGION WILL BE SET UP TO OUR NORTH...FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST TO NEW ENGLAND AS WE HEAD INTO FRI. PLENTY OF
PRECIP WILL BE HANGING AROUND THIS BOUNDARY...STAYING LARGELY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE AREA UNTIL DAWN FRI. A WEAKER LOW PRES SYSTEM THAT
WILL DEVELOP THU NIGHT INTO FRI WILL SLIDE UP TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND...BUT A MORE POTENT LOW WILL BE FORMING OVER THE LOWER OHIO
RVR VLY. THE LOW WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH AS IT APPROACHES...BUT THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE STRENGTHENING THRU THE DAYTIME HRS. POCKETS OF
PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY...AS TEMPS RISE BACK INTO THE 60S/70S. THE COLD FRONT
WILL THEN MOVE THRU THE REGION LATE INTO THE NIGHTTIME HRS.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON WHATEVER LEFTOVER INSTABILITY
THERE IS FROM THE AFTN/EVE HEATING AND MAY COME IN TOO LATE TO
MAXIMIZE THIS POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THE LOW-MID SHEAR WILL BE POTENT
ENOUGH TO DRIVE AN ORGANIZED LINE - ALBEIT SHALLOW - BUT ENOUGH TO
MIX DOWN GUSTY WINDS IN ISOLATED AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WHILE
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE FROM NORTHERN TX/OK. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE SYSTEMS MAY BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE
CWA ENDING LATE SAT MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME UPSLOPE
PRECIP TO THE WEST MAY LAST LONGER. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO MON
NIGHT.

WINDY CONDITIONS FROM FRI INTO SAT NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR SAT NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST AT ALL TERMINAL SITES INTO THIS EVENING.
WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS WILL BE COMMON AT
THE TERMINALS. SHOWERS...PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FROM KDCA TO KMTN TO KBWI TO KMRB. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONGER WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KTS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
LATER THIS EVENING AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS. VFR WILL PERSIST ON WEDNESDAY.

SOLID VFR CONDS ON THU AS A LOW PRES SYSTEM APPROACHES INTO EARLY
FRI. THIS SYSTEM WILL TAKE A COUPLE OF DAYS TO PASS
COMPLETELY...W/ SOME ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY W/ A COLD FRONT
LATE FRI NIGHT AND RAIN SHOWERS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE.

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS REGION FRI NIGHT... BRINGING RAINY
CONDITIONS THROUGH SAT. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS FOR LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTY WINDS OCCURRING OVER THE WATERS. GALE CONDITIONS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF MIXING DOWN
30 TO 40 KT WIND GUSTS. ALL OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD CLEAR THE
WATERS BY 04Z. GALE WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL MIDNIGHT...AND SCA
WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE DURING THE DAY.

HIGH PRES MOVING OFFSHORE WED NIGHT INTO THU WILL CREATE PRES
GRADIENT STRONG ENOUGH FOR SCA CONDS OVER THE WATERS BOTH THU AND
FRI AFTNS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU THE REGION LATE FRI
NIGHT.

SCA LIKELY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BEHIND COLD AS WINDY CONDITIONS
DEVELOP. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS LATE SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING FOR SEVERAL VIRGINIA COUNTIES IN THE
HIGHLANDS...SHENANDOAH VALLEY...BLUE RIDGE AND CENTRAL FOOTHILLS.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ALONG WITH RH VALUES
BELOW 30 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ025>027-
     029-030-036>040-050-051-501-502-504-507-508.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ025>027-029-
     503-504-507-508.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR WVZ055-501-502-
     505-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-540>543.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530-531-535-536-538-539.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...BJL/KRW
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...IR
AVIATION...GMS/IR/KRW
MARINE...BJL/GMS/IR/KRW
FIRE WEATHER...KRW



000
FXUS61 KLWX 312041
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
441 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
...UPDATE TO EXTEND WIND ADVISORY FOR RIDGE TOPS OF BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS UNTIL MIDNIGHT. THE GALE WARNING
ALSO GOES UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR THE WATERS...

LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT HAVE WARMED INTO THE 60S WITH A FEW 70 DEGREE READINGS OVER
CENTRAL VA. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL BE COMMON...EXCEPT
UP TO 50 MPH ABOVE 1500 FEET WITHIN THE BLUE RIDGE AND POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON DC METRO AREAS AND SURROUNDING
SUBURBS TO THE NORTH AND WEST. BUFKIT PROFILES INDICATED AN
INVERTED-V SUBCLOUD LAYER AND THIN CAPE...INDICATIVE OF GUSTY WIND
POTENTIAL. ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING DOWN STRONGER WIND GUSTS AOA 40 MPH. THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CLEAR THE BAY COMMUNITIES AROUND 03Z.

FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
OCCUR WITH A COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES.
PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.

MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS...EVEN A FEW 20S OUT WEST
AND NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE.

HIGH PRESURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING
A RETURN TO SUNSHINE BUT WITH COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S
TO NEAR 60 IN SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAKE ABOUT A TWO-DAY VISIT DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK...ATTEMPTING TO HANG ON THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AS ANOTHER COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE EFFECT ON
THU FROM THIS HIGH WILL BE ANOTHER WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE DAY IN TERMS
OF TEMPS. S-SW WINDS CHANNELING THRU THE VLYS OF THE APLCNS WILL
BRING TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S AND POSSIBLY SOME L80S...WHILE THE
PIEDMONT/COASTAL REGION STAYS A BIT MORE MODERATED BUT STILL NEAR
THE 70F DEG MARK BY MID AFTN.

MEANWHILE...A LARGE BUT FAIRLY DISORGANIZED FETCH OF GULF MOISTURE
WILL BE COLLECTING OVER THE MS RVR VLY AND DEEP SOUTH...AS A SERIES
OF UPPER WAVES BEGIN TO SHAPE IT WELL TO OUR WEST. A LONG
OUTSTRETCHED WARM FRONTAL REGION WILL BE SET UP TO OUR NORTH...FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST TO NEW ENGLAND AS WE HEAD INTO FRI. PLENTY OF
PRECIP WILL BE HANGING AROUND THIS BOUNDARY...STAYING LARGELY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE AREA UNTIL DAWN FRI. A WEAKER LOW PRES SYSTEM THAT
WILL DEVELOP THU NIGHT INTO FRI WILL SLIDE UP TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND...BUT A MORE POTENT LOW WILL BE FORMING OVER THE LOWER OHIO
RVR VLY. THE LOW WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH AS IT APPROACHES...BUT THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE STRENGTHENING THRU THE DAYTIME HRS. POCKETS OF
PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY...AS TEMPS RISE BACK INTO THE 60S/70S. THE COLD FRONT
WILL THEN MOVE THRU THE REGION LATE INTO THE NIGHTTIME HRS.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON WHATEVER LEFTOVER INSTABILITY
THERE IS FROM THE AFTN/EVE HEATING AND MAY COME IN TOO LATE TO
MAXIMIZE THIS POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THE LOW-MID SHEAR WILL BE POTENT
ENOUGH TO DRIVE AN ORGANIZED LINE - ALBEIT SHALLOW - BUT ENOUGH TO
MIX DOWN GUSTY WINDS IN ISOLATED AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WHILE
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE FROM NORTHERN TX/OK. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE SYSTEMS MAY BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE
CWA ENDING LATE SAT MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME UPSLOPE
PRECIP TO THE WEST MAY LAST LONGER. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO MON
NIGHT.

WINDY CONDITIONS FROM FRI INTO SAT NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR SAT NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST AT ALL TERMINAL SITES INTO THIS EVENING.
WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS WILL BE COMMON AT
THE TERMINALS. SHOWERS...PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FROM KDCA TO KMTN TO KBWI TO KMRB. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONGER WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KTS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
LATER THIS EVENING AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS. VFR WILL PERSIST ON WEDNESDAY.

SOLID VFR CONDS ON THU AS A LOW PRES SYSTEM APPROACHES INTO EARLY
FRI. THIS SYSTEM WILL TAKE A COUPLE OF DAYS TO PASS
COMPLETELY...W/ SOME ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY W/ A COLD FRONT
LATE FRI NIGHT AND RAIN SHOWERS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE.

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS REGION FRI NIGHT... BRINGING RAINY
CONDITIONS THROUGH SAT. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS FOR LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTY WINDS OCCURRING OVER THE WATERS. GALE CONDITIONS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF MIXING DOWN
30 TO 40 KT WIND GUSTS. ALL OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD CLEAR THE
WATERS BY 04Z. GALE WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL MIDNIGHT...AND SCA
WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE DURING THE DAY.

HIGH PRES MOVING OFFSHORE WED NIGHT INTO THU WILL CREATE PRES
GRADIENT STRONG ENOUGH FOR SCA CONDS OVER THE WATERS BOTH THU AND
FRI AFTNS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU THE REGION LATE FRI
NIGHT.

SCA LIKELY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BEHIND COLD AS WINDY CONDITIONS
DEVELOP. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS LATE SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING FOR SEVERAL VIRGINIA COUNTIES IN THE
HIGHLANDS...SHENANDOAH VALLEY...BLUE RIDGE AND CENTRAL FOOTHILLS.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ALONG WITH RH VALUES
BELOW 30 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ025>027-
     029-030-036>040-050-051-501-502-504-507-508.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ025>027-029-
     503-504-507-508.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR WVZ055-501-502-
     505-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-540>543.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530-531-535-536-538-539.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...BJL/KRW
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...IR
AVIATION...GMS/IR/KRW
MARINE...BJL/GMS/IR/KRW
FIRE WEATHER...KRW




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 312017
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
417 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION
EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE LATE IN THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...AND
GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...AND CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AFTN SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NRN VA/WRN
MD/SOUTH CENTRAL PA. BREEZY WARM DAY ACRS THE LOCAL AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY FROM 70-75 F OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC...WITH 60S
PREVAILING ON THE ERN SHORE AND THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF VA/NE NC.
SKIES ARE STILL SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE MOST PART...BUT LATEST
SATELLITE REVEALS BKN/OVC CLOUD COVER IN THE VICINITY OF THE SFC
LOW AND GIVEN A WNW FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AKQ CWA OVER THE NEXT
FEW HRS. DEW PTS REMAIN VERY LOW (MAINLY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S)...SO
PRECIP CHANCES WILL GENLY BE CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN/NE SECTIONS
OF THE CWA...PRIMARILY FROM 22Z THROUGH 02Z THIS EVENING (ALTHOUGH
WILL HAVE SOME LOW CHC POPS PRIOR TO THIS OVER THE FAR NORTH).
SOME OF THE HIGH- RES MODEL DATA STILL DEPICTS MEASURABLE QPF ALL
THE WAY INTO SRN VA/NE NC. GIVEN HOW DRY IT WILL BE AND THAT
CURRENT OBS UPSTREAM ARE SHOWING RAIN HAVING A TOUGH TIME
REACHING THE GROUND S/SW OF THE SFC LOW TRACK...WILL FAVOR A DRIER
FORECAST CLOSE TO THAT DEPICTED BY THE 12Z NAM12. WILL CONFINE LOW
END LIKELY POPS TO THE MD ZONES...WITH JUST CHC/SLIGHT CHC FOR
REMAINING ZONES MAINLY ALONG/N/NE OF I-64. GENLY GOING WITH A DRY
FORECAST S/SW OF I-64.

WIND SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS MAINLY UP TO 25-35
MPH INTO THE EARLY EVENING HRS. THE COMBINATION OF DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL ENHANCE FIRE DANGER THROUGH SUNSET SO THE FIRE WX STATEMENT
HAS BEEN ISSUED. SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.

CONDS DRY OUT QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON WED. A COOLER DAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER-MID 60S FOR INTERIOR SRN VA/NE NC AND IN THE MID- UPPER 50S
CLOSER TO THE COAST AS WINDS TURN ONSHORE IN THE AFTN AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE
LATE WED NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT
IN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 MOST LOCATIONS.
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE
WITHIN A WARMING AIRMASS ESPECIALLY AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP
BY THE AFTN. MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S ONCE
AGAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID- UPPER 60S
AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. INCREASING CLOUDS THU NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND A MORE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS.
IN GENERAL...MODELS ARE SLOWER AT BRINGING IN DEEP MOISTURE AND
THE NRN STREAM AND SRN STREAM ARE SLOWER TO PHASE. HAVE SCALED
BACK A BIT ON POPS FOR FRI...LOOKS LIKE A LOW END CHC FOR MAINLY
-RA FRI MORNING...PRIMARILY ACRS NRN ZONES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. VERY MILD THU NIGHT IN SSW FLOW AND
INCRAESING CLOUDS...LOWS IN THE 50S TO POSSIBLE AS WARM AS 60 F IN
A FEW SPOTS. WARM/VARIABLY CLOUDY FRI WITH 20-30% CHC FOR -SHRA
AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY TSTMS AS THE SFC FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO
THE REGION. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 70S...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO
80F IF ENOUGH SUN CAN PREVAIL. MAIN RAIN EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL FRI NIGHT DESCRIBED IN THE LONG TERM BELOW...

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WET AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. STILL SOME MINOR SPATIAL AND TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WRT ASSOCIATED SRN STREAM ENERGY AND THE
COLD FRONT...BUT MOSTLY NOW WITH HOW QUICK PRECIP CLEARS THE COAST
SAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FRI NIGHT...EXCEPT THE SE. THETA-
E ADVECTION AND MILD TEMPS WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY FRI
EVENING. SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE SHARPENING LAPSE RATES AS TEMPS
ALOFT COOL. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI EVENING. COLD
FRONT EXITS THE COAST SAT AS THE PARENT LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
LIFT INTO THE NE STATES/CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST LATE SAT...REMAINING OVER THE REGION THRU SUN. THE
RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SAT-SUN GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S INLAND
AND MID-UPPER 50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER SERN
CANADA THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE
SUN AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF BEGINS TO SPREAD BACK NWD INTO THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE WLY FLOW CROSS THE REGION. BEGIN TO
REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGHS
MON IN THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ERN SHORE
AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S. HIGHS
TUES IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVE. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT...GUSTY SW WINDS (25-30 KT) ARE EXPECTED TIL AROUND
22-23Z.

A BRIEF -SHRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KSBY THIS EVE. DRY WX AND
VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED WED AND THU. GUSTY SW WINDS MAY AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OVER NRN VA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE OH VALLEY. STRONG GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION BTWN LOW PRESSURE AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE FL COAST HAS
RESULTED IN STRONG SW WINDS OVER THE WATER THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS
GENERALLY 15-25 KT. FEW GUSTS OF 30 KT OBSERVED ON ELEVATED SITES
CLOSET TO LAND...WHERE 30 KT GUSTS ALSO OBSERVED. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3
FT AND WAVES 1-3 FT. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT NRN WATERS THIS EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPING ACROSS THE WATER AROUND MIDNIGHT. BRIEF LULL IN SCA SPEEDS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...BUT A NW CAA SURGE
EXPECTED POST FRONTAL. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-5 FT ALL COASTAL ZONES
WITH WAVES 3-4 FT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WEDS MORNING. SE SWELL
MAY KEEP SEAS HOVERING AROUND 5 FT 20 NM OUT THRU WEDS MORNING...BUT
SUBSIDING WEDS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT
WITH FLOW RETURNING TO THE S AOB 15 KT. SLY WINDS INCREASE THURS AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THURS-THURS EVENING WITH SLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT.
SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS ALSO PROGGED TO REACH 5 FT. FLOW BECOMES SW
FRI AS THE FRONT HANGS UP ALONG THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. FRONT
FINALLY CROSSES THE WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT. BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WATER THRU THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THESE WINDS IN
COMBINATION WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO 18 TO 25%
RANGE ACROSS VA AND NORTHEAST NC WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER.
AFTER COORDINATING WITH THE NC AND VA FORESTRY OFFICIALS AND
SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES...WILL MAINTAIN AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT THRU 6 PM. CRITICAL RED FLAG CRITERIA MAY BE MET IN A
FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...10-HR DEAD FUEL
MOISTURE VALUES ARE STILL MARGINAL OR SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING THE
NECESSARY THRESHOLD OF 7%. ON THE EASTERN SHORE...A STATEMENT WILL
NOT BE NECESSARY DUE TO HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...ALB/SAM
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 312017
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
417 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION
EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE LATE IN THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...AND
GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...AND CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AFTN SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NRN VA/WRN
MD/SOUTH CENTRAL PA. BREEZY WARM DAY ACRS THE LOCAL AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY FROM 70-75 F OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC...WITH 60S
PREVAILING ON THE ERN SHORE AND THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF VA/NE NC.
SKIES ARE STILL SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE MOST PART...BUT LATEST
SATELLITE REVEALS BKN/OVC CLOUD COVER IN THE VICINITY OF THE SFC
LOW AND GIVEN A WNW FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AKQ CWA OVER THE NEXT
FEW HRS. DEW PTS REMAIN VERY LOW (MAINLY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S)...SO
PRECIP CHANCES WILL GENLY BE CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN/NE SECTIONS
OF THE CWA...PRIMARILY FROM 22Z THROUGH 02Z THIS EVENING (ALTHOUGH
WILL HAVE SOME LOW CHC POPS PRIOR TO THIS OVER THE FAR NORTH).
SOME OF THE HIGH- RES MODEL DATA STILL DEPICTS MEASURABLE QPF ALL
THE WAY INTO SRN VA/NE NC. GIVEN HOW DRY IT WILL BE AND THAT
CURRENT OBS UPSTREAM ARE SHOWING RAIN HAVING A TOUGH TIME
REACHING THE GROUND S/SW OF THE SFC LOW TRACK...WILL FAVOR A DRIER
FORECAST CLOSE TO THAT DEPICTED BY THE 12Z NAM12. WILL CONFINE LOW
END LIKELY POPS TO THE MD ZONES...WITH JUST CHC/SLIGHT CHC FOR
REMAINING ZONES MAINLY ALONG/N/NE OF I-64. GENLY GOING WITH A DRY
FORECAST S/SW OF I-64.

WIND SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS MAINLY UP TO 25-35
MPH INTO THE EARLY EVENING HRS. THE COMBINATION OF DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL ENHANCE FIRE DANGER THROUGH SUNSET SO THE FIRE WX STATEMENT
HAS BEEN ISSUED. SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.

CONDS DRY OUT QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON WED. A COOLER DAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER-MID 60S FOR INTERIOR SRN VA/NE NC AND IN THE MID- UPPER 50S
CLOSER TO THE COAST AS WINDS TURN ONSHORE IN THE AFTN AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE
LATE WED NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT
IN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 MOST LOCATIONS.
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE
WITHIN A WARMING AIRMASS ESPECIALLY AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP
BY THE AFTN. MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S ONCE
AGAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID- UPPER 60S
AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. INCREASING CLOUDS THU NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND A MORE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS.
IN GENERAL...MODELS ARE SLOWER AT BRINGING IN DEEP MOISTURE AND
THE NRN STREAM AND SRN STREAM ARE SLOWER TO PHASE. HAVE SCALED
BACK A BIT ON POPS FOR FRI...LOOKS LIKE A LOW END CHC FOR MAINLY
-RA FRI MORNING...PRIMARILY ACRS NRN ZONES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. VERY MILD THU NIGHT IN SSW FLOW AND
INCRAESING CLOUDS...LOWS IN THE 50S TO POSSIBLE AS WARM AS 60 F IN
A FEW SPOTS. WARM/VARIABLY CLOUDY FRI WITH 20-30% CHC FOR -SHRA
AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY TSTMS AS THE SFC FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO
THE REGION. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 70S...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO
80F IF ENOUGH SUN CAN PREVAIL. MAIN RAIN EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL FRI NIGHT DESCRIBED IN THE LONG TERM BELOW...

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WET AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. STILL SOME MINOR SPATIAL AND TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WRT ASSOCIATED SRN STREAM ENERGY AND THE
COLD FRONT...BUT MOSTLY NOW WITH HOW QUICK PRECIP CLEARS THE COAST
SAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FRI NIGHT...EXCEPT THE SE. THETA-
E ADVECTION AND MILD TEMPS WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY FRI
EVENING. SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE SHARPENING LAPSE RATES AS TEMPS
ALOFT COOL. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI EVENING. COLD
FRONT EXITS THE COAST SAT AS THE PARENT LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
LIFT INTO THE NE STATES/CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST LATE SAT...REMAINING OVER THE REGION THRU SUN. THE
RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SAT-SUN GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S INLAND
AND MID-UPPER 50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER SERN
CANADA THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE
SUN AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF BEGINS TO SPREAD BACK NWD INTO THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE WLY FLOW CROSS THE REGION. BEGIN TO
REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGHS
MON IN THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ERN SHORE
AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S. HIGHS
TUES IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVE. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT...GUSTY SW WINDS (25-30 KT) ARE EXPECTED TIL AROUND
22-23Z.

A BRIEF -SHRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KSBY THIS EVE. DRY WX AND
VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED WED AND THU. GUSTY SW WINDS MAY AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OVER NRN VA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE OH VALLEY. STRONG GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION BTWN LOW PRESSURE AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE FL COAST HAS
RESULTED IN STRONG SW WINDS OVER THE WATER THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS
GENERALLY 15-25 KT. FEW GUSTS OF 30 KT OBSERVED ON ELEVATED SITES
CLOSET TO LAND...WHERE 30 KT GUSTS ALSO OBSERVED. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3
FT AND WAVES 1-3 FT. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT NRN WATERS THIS EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPING ACROSS THE WATER AROUND MIDNIGHT. BRIEF LULL IN SCA SPEEDS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...BUT A NW CAA SURGE
EXPECTED POST FRONTAL. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-5 FT ALL COASTAL ZONES
WITH WAVES 3-4 FT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WEDS MORNING. SE SWELL
MAY KEEP SEAS HOVERING AROUND 5 FT 20 NM OUT THRU WEDS MORNING...BUT
SUBSIDING WEDS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT
WITH FLOW RETURNING TO THE S AOB 15 KT. SLY WINDS INCREASE THURS AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THURS-THURS EVENING WITH SLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT.
SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS ALSO PROGGED TO REACH 5 FT. FLOW BECOMES SW
FRI AS THE FRONT HANGS UP ALONG THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. FRONT
FINALLY CROSSES THE WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT. BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WATER THRU THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THESE WINDS IN
COMBINATION WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO 18 TO 25%
RANGE ACROSS VA AND NORTHEAST NC WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER.
AFTER COORDINATING WITH THE NC AND VA FORESTRY OFFICIALS AND
SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES...WILL MAINTAIN AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT THRU 6 PM. CRITICAL RED FLAG CRITERIA MAY BE MET IN A
FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...10-HR DEAD FUEL
MOISTURE VALUES ARE STILL MARGINAL OR SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING THE
NECESSARY THRESHOLD OF 7%. ON THE EASTERN SHORE...A STATEMENT WILL
NOT BE NECESSARY DUE TO HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...ALB/SAM
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 312001
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
401 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION
EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE LATE IN THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...AND
GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...AND CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AFTN SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NRN VA/WRN
MD/SOUTH CENTRAL PA. BREEZY WARM DAY ACRS THE LOCAL AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY FROM 70-75 F OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC...WITH 60S
PREVAILING ON THE ERN SHORE AND THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF VA/NE NC.
SKIES ARE STILL SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE MOST PART...BUT LATEST
SATELLITE REVEALS BKN/OVC CLOUD COVER IN THE VICINITY OF THE SFC
LOW AND GIVEN A WNW FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AKQ CWA OVER THE NEXT
FEW HRS. DEW PTS REMAIN VERY LOW (MAINLY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S)...SO
PRECIP CHANCES WILL GENLY BE CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN/NE SECTIONS
OF THE CWA...PRIMARILY FROM 22Z THROUGH 02Z THIS EVENING (ALTHOUGH
WILL HAVE SOME LOW CHC POPS PRIOR TO THIS OVER THE FAR NORTH).
SOME OF THE HIGH- RES MODEL DATA STILL DEPICTS MEASURABLE QPF ALL
THE WAY INTO SRN VA/NE NC. GIVEN HOW DRY IT WILL BE AND THAT
CURRENT OBS UPSTREAM ARE SHOWING RAIN HAVING A TOUGH TIME
REACHING THE GROUND S/SW OF THE SFC LOW TRACK...WILL FAVOR A DRIER
FORECAST CLOSE TO THAT DEPICTED BY THE 12Z NAM12. WILL CONFINE LOW
END LIKELY POPS TO THE MD ZONES...WITH JUST CHC/SLIGHT CHC FOR
REMAINING ZONES MAINLY ALONG/N/NE OF I-64. GENLY GOING WITH A DRY
FORECAST S/SW OF I-64.

WIND SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS MAINLY UP TO 25-35
MPH INTO THE EARLY EVENING HRS. THE COMBINATION OF DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL ENHANCE FIRE DANGER THROUGH SUNSET SO THE FIRE WX STATEMENT
HAS BEEN ISSUED. SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.

CONDS DRY OUT QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON WED. A COOLER DAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER-MID 60S FOR INTERIOR SRN VA/NE NC AND IN THE MID- UPPER 50S
CLOSER TO THE COAST AS WINDS TURN ONSHORE IN THE AFTN AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE
LATE WED NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT
IN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 MOST LOCATIONS.
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE
WITHIN A WARMING AIRMASS ESPECIALLY AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP
BY THE AFTN. MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S ONCE
AGAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID- UPPER 60S
AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. INCREASING CLOUDS THU NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND A MORE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS.
IN GENERAL...MODELS ARE SLOWER AT BRINGING IN DEEP MOISTURE AND
THE NRN STREAM AND SRN STREAM ARE SLOWER TO PHASE. HAVE SCALED
BACK A BIT ON POPS FOR FRI...LOOKS LIKE A LOW END CHC FOR MAINLY
-RA FRI MORNING...PRIMARILY ACRS NRN ZONES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. VERY MILD THU NIGHT IN SSW FLOW AND
INCRAESING CLOUDS...LOWS IN THE 50S TO POSSIBLE AS WARM AS 60 F IN
A FEW SPOTS. WARM/VARIABLY CLOUDY FRI WITH 20-30% CHC FOR -SHRA
AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY TSTMS AS THE SFC FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO
THE REGION. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 70S...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO
80F IF ENOUGH SUN CAN PREVAIL. MAIN RAIN EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL FRI NIGHT DESCRIBED IN THE LONG TERM BELOW...

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WET AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. STILL SOME MINOR SPATIAL AND TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WRT ASSOCIATED SRN STREAM ENERGY AND THE
COLD FRONT...BUT MOSTLY NOW WITH HOW QUICK PRECIP CLEARS THE COAST
SAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FRI NIGHT...EXCEPT THE SE. THETA-
E ADVECTION AND MILD TEMPS WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY FRI
EVENING. SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE SHARPENING LAPSE RATES AS TEMPS
ALOFT COOL. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI EVENING. COLD
FRONT EXITS THE COAST SAT AS THE PARENT LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
LIFT INTO THE NE STATES/CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST LATE SAT...REMAINING OVER THE REGION THRU SUN. THE
RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SAT-SUN GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S INLAND
AND MID-UPPER 50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER SERN
CANADA THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE
SUN AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF BEGINS TO SPREAD BACK NWD INTO THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE WLY FLOW CROSS THE REGION. BEGIN TO
REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGHS
MON IN THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ERN SHORE
AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S. HIGHS
TUES IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVE. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT...GUSTY SW WINDS (25-30 KT) ARE EXPECTED TIL AROUND
22-23Z.

A BRIEF -SHRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KSBY THIS EVE. DRY WX AND
VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED WED AND THU. GUSTY SW WINDS MAY AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OVER NRN VA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE OH VALLEY. STRONG GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION BTWN LOW PRESSURE AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE FL COAST HAS
RESULTED IN STRONG SW WINDS OVER THE WATER THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS
GENERALLY 15-25 KT. FEW GUSTS OF 30 KT OBSERVED ON ELEVATED SITES
CLOSET TO LAND...WHERE 30 KT GUSTS ALSO OBSERVED. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3
FT AND WAVES 1-3 FT. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT NRN WATERS THIS EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPING ACROSS THE WATER AROUND MIDNIGHT. BRIEF LULL IN SCA SPEEDS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...BUT A NW CAA SURGE
EXPECTED POST FRONTAL. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-5 FT ALL COASTAL ZONES
WITH WAVES 3-4 FT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WEDS MORNING. SE SWELL
MAY KEEP SEAS HOVERING AROUND 5 FT 20 NM OUT THRU WEDS MORNING...BUT
SUBSIDING WEDS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT
WITH FLOW RETURNING TO THE S AOB 15 KT. SLY WINDS INCREASE THURS AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THURS-THURS EVENING WITH SLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT.
SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS ALSO PROGGED TO REACH 5 FT. FLOW BECOMES SW
FRI AS THE FRONT HANGS UP ALONG THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. FRONT
FINALLY CROSSES THE WATERS LATE SAT NIGHT. BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WATER THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THESE WINDS IN
COMBINATION WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO 18 TO 25%
RANGE ACROSS VA AND NORTHEAST NC WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER.
AFTER COORDINATING WITH THE NC AND VA FORESTRY OFFICIALS AND
SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES...WILL MAINTAIN AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT THRU 6 PM. CRITICAL RED FLAG CRITERIA MAY BE MET IN A
FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...10-HR DEAD FUEL
MOISTURE VALUES ARE STILL MARGINAL OR SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING THE
NECESSARY THRESHOLD OF 7%. ON THE EASTERN SHORE...A STATEMENT WILL
NOT BE NECESSARY DUE TO HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...ALB/SAM
FIRE WEATHER...AKQ



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 312001
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
401 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION
EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE LATE IN THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...AND
GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...AND CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AFTN SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NRN VA/WRN
MD/SOUTH CENTRAL PA. BREEZY WARM DAY ACRS THE LOCAL AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY FROM 70-75 F OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC...WITH 60S
PREVAILING ON THE ERN SHORE AND THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF VA/NE NC.
SKIES ARE STILL SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE MOST PART...BUT LATEST
SATELLITE REVEALS BKN/OVC CLOUD COVER IN THE VICINITY OF THE SFC
LOW AND GIVEN A WNW FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AKQ CWA OVER THE NEXT
FEW HRS. DEW PTS REMAIN VERY LOW (MAINLY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S)...SO
PRECIP CHANCES WILL GENLY BE CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN/NE SECTIONS
OF THE CWA...PRIMARILY FROM 22Z THROUGH 02Z THIS EVENING (ALTHOUGH
WILL HAVE SOME LOW CHC POPS PRIOR TO THIS OVER THE FAR NORTH).
SOME OF THE HIGH- RES MODEL DATA STILL DEPICTS MEASURABLE QPF ALL
THE WAY INTO SRN VA/NE NC. GIVEN HOW DRY IT WILL BE AND THAT
CURRENT OBS UPSTREAM ARE SHOWING RAIN HAVING A TOUGH TIME
REACHING THE GROUND S/SW OF THE SFC LOW TRACK...WILL FAVOR A DRIER
FORECAST CLOSE TO THAT DEPICTED BY THE 12Z NAM12. WILL CONFINE LOW
END LIKELY POPS TO THE MD ZONES...WITH JUST CHC/SLIGHT CHC FOR
REMAINING ZONES MAINLY ALONG/N/NE OF I-64. GENLY GOING WITH A DRY
FORECAST S/SW OF I-64.

WIND SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS MAINLY UP TO 25-35
MPH INTO THE EARLY EVENING HRS. THE COMBINATION OF DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL ENHANCE FIRE DANGER THROUGH SUNSET SO THE FIRE WX STATEMENT
HAS BEEN ISSUED. SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.

CONDS DRY OUT QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON WED. A COOLER DAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER-MID 60S FOR INTERIOR SRN VA/NE NC AND IN THE MID- UPPER 50S
CLOSER TO THE COAST AS WINDS TURN ONSHORE IN THE AFTN AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE
LATE WED NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT
IN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 MOST LOCATIONS.
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE
WITHIN A WARMING AIRMASS ESPECIALLY AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP
BY THE AFTN. MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S ONCE
AGAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID- UPPER 60S
AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. INCREASING CLOUDS THU NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND A MORE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS.
IN GENERAL...MODELS ARE SLOWER AT BRINGING IN DEEP MOISTURE AND
THE NRN STREAM AND SRN STREAM ARE SLOWER TO PHASE. HAVE SCALED
BACK A BIT ON POPS FOR FRI...LOOKS LIKE A LOW END CHC FOR MAINLY
-RA FRI MORNING...PRIMARILY ACRS NRN ZONES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. VERY MILD THU NIGHT IN SSW FLOW AND
INCRAESING CLOUDS...LOWS IN THE 50S TO POSSIBLE AS WARM AS 60 F IN
A FEW SPOTS. WARM/VARIABLY CLOUDY FRI WITH 20-30% CHC FOR -SHRA
AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY TSTMS AS THE SFC FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO
THE REGION. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 70S...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO
80F IF ENOUGH SUN CAN PREVAIL. MAIN RAIN EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL FRI NIGHT DESCRIBED IN THE LONG TERM BELOW...

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WET AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. STILL SOME MINOR SPATIAL AND TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WRT ASSOCIATED SRN STREAM ENERGY AND THE
COLD FRONT...BUT MOSTLY NOW WITH HOW QUICK PRECIP CLEARS THE COAST
SAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FRI NIGHT...EXCEPT THE SE. THETA-
E ADVECTION AND MILD TEMPS WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY FRI
EVENING. SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE SHARPENING LAPSE RATES AS TEMPS
ALOFT COOL. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI EVENING. COLD
FRONT EXITS THE COAST SAT AS THE PARENT LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
LIFT INTO THE NE STATES/CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST LATE SAT...REMAINING OVER THE REGION THRU SUN. THE
RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SAT-SUN GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S INLAND
AND MID-UPPER 50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER SERN
CANADA THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE
SUN AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF BEGINS TO SPREAD BACK NWD INTO THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE WLY FLOW CROSS THE REGION. BEGIN TO
REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGHS
MON IN THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ERN SHORE
AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S. HIGHS
TUES IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVE. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT...GUSTY SW WINDS (25-30 KT) ARE EXPECTED TIL AROUND
22-23Z.

A BRIEF -SHRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KSBY THIS EVE. DRY WX AND
VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED WED AND THU. GUSTY SW WINDS MAY AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OVER NRN VA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE OH VALLEY. STRONG GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION BTWN LOW PRESSURE AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE FL COAST HAS
RESULTED IN STRONG SW WINDS OVER THE WATER THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS
GENERALLY 15-25 KT. FEW GUSTS OF 30 KT OBSERVED ON ELEVATED SITES
CLOSET TO LAND...WHERE 30 KT GUSTS ALSO OBSERVED. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3
FT AND WAVES 1-3 FT. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT NRN WATERS THIS EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPING ACROSS THE WATER AROUND MIDNIGHT. BRIEF LULL IN SCA SPEEDS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...BUT A NW CAA SURGE
EXPECTED POST FRONTAL. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-5 FT ALL COASTAL ZONES
WITH WAVES 3-4 FT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WEDS MORNING. SE SWELL
MAY KEEP SEAS HOVERING AROUND 5 FT 20 NM OUT THRU WEDS MORNING...BUT
SUBSIDING WEDS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT
WITH FLOW RETURNING TO THE S AOB 15 KT. SLY WINDS INCREASE THURS AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THURS-THURS EVENING WITH SLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT.
SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS ALSO PROGGED TO REACH 5 FT. FLOW BECOMES SW
FRI AS THE FRONT HANGS UP ALONG THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. FRONT
FINALLY CROSSES THE WATERS LATE SAT NIGHT. BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WATER THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THESE WINDS IN
COMBINATION WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO 18 TO 25%
RANGE ACROSS VA AND NORTHEAST NC WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER.
AFTER COORDINATING WITH THE NC AND VA FORESTRY OFFICIALS AND
SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES...WILL MAINTAIN AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT THRU 6 PM. CRITICAL RED FLAG CRITERIA MAY BE MET IN A
FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...10-HR DEAD FUEL
MOISTURE VALUES ARE STILL MARGINAL OR SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING THE
NECESSARY THRESHOLD OF 7%. ON THE EASTERN SHORE...A STATEMENT WILL
NOT BE NECESSARY DUE TO HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...ALB/SAM
FIRE WEATHER...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 311936
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
336 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES A MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEDNESDAY.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE THURSDAY...BEFORE A WET WEATHER SYSTEM
CLOSES OUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE LOW DROPPING ACROSS WESTERN PA INTO THE APPALACHIANS
CURRENTLY...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY RECENTLY PASSING THROUGH PIT.
STEADIER PRECIP HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST...BUT SOME SCATTERED
POST-FRONTAL SHRA ARE FIRING IN MODEST INSTABILITY. EXPECT THESE
TO PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. KEPT THE THUNDER CHANCES GOING IN THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE
SUNSET...WHERE MORE SUN HAS BEEN SEEN TODAY. ONLY EXPECT A FEW
LINGERING SHRA AROUND 00Z IN THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE ENDING DURING
THE EVENING. 25-35 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH DURING THAT TIME
AS WELL.

BAND OF POST-FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL SWING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING
AS WELL. A SHORT PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS. THEN...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY IN
MICHIGAN YOOPER COUNTRY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND
12Z. EXPECT THIS TO MANIFEST MAINLY IN THE FORM OF REINFORCED
CLOUD COVER...BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH JUICE TO GET A FEW
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80 BY SUNRISE.

PREVIOUS LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS AT THE LOWER END OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. CONSIDERING THE WIND AND EXPECTED
CLOUDS...RAISED TEMPERATURES MORE TOWARDS THE MEAN OF THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEYOND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES AND SOME CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AS IT PASSES JUST NORTH OF
THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY....EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WIND SHIFT
TO THE SW IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AND WHILE RIDGE
WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST...THINK THAT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL
BE ALLOWED TO DECOUPLE. THUS...OPTED TO STAY CLOSER TO THE
MOS/ECMWF VALUES AND NOT THE WARMER NAME TEMPS.

COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MAKE IT`S APPROACH THURSDAY...WITH
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS
SHOULD...DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...BRINGING TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 60`S AND LOWER 70`S ACROSS THE REGION AS 850HPA
TEMPS APPROACH +10C. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SLOW WITH THE
BOUNDARY SO VERY LOW POPS WERE KEPT IN THE FORECAST UNTIL LATE.
HOWEVER...THE NAM AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE ECMWF...SUGGEST AN
AREA OF MOISTURE MAY BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO SOME OF THE REGION BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE PLACEMENT AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THESE SHOWERS...THOUGHT IT BEST TO JUST KEEP POPS
LOW FOR NOW. VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT
IN GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH THURSDAY AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER MAY
BE POSSIBLE LATE WITH THIN CAPE SUGGESTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS.

COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY WHEN A UPPER WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOP
AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
THE STRENGTH OF THIS LOW AND PLACEMENT BUT LIKELY TO LOW-CATEGORICAL
POPS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN ELEVATED UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES LATE FRIDAY...BUT
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM BEING AS WARM AS THEY WERE ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DRYING TREND IS INDICATED FOR THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. THE COOL DOWN
WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT THOUGH AS FLAT RIDGING IS ECMWF AND GFS
PROGGED TO BUILD AND MODERATE TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FKL/DUJ REMAIN AT IFR/LIFR IN THE COLDER AIRMASS. EXPECT SOME
IMPROVEMENT BY 21Z OR THEREAFTER AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE
NORTH. SOME SCATTERED SHRA ARE ALSO OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
NEAR LBE/MGW BEFORE 00Z...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF.
OTHER SITES AT VFR CURRENTLY...BUT EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING IN POST-FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS IN
COLD ADVECTION PATTERN. CIGS WILL THEN LIFT BACK TO MVFR DURING
THE NIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF MAINLY SCT CLOUD COVERAGE.
HOWEVER...WEAK SYSTEM DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SHOULD
REESTABLISH SOME CLOUD COVER ACROSS WESTERN PA/NORTHERN WV AFTER
10Z. EXPECTING CIGS TO REMAIN VFR AT THIS TIME...WITH POSSIBLY A
FEW ISOLATED SHSN.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THE CROSSING OF LOW PRESSURE ON
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 311936
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
336 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES A MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEDNESDAY.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE THURSDAY...BEFORE A WET WEATHER SYSTEM
CLOSES OUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE LOW DROPPING ACROSS WESTERN PA INTO THE APPALACHIANS
CURRENTLY...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY RECENTLY PASSING THROUGH PIT.
STEADIER PRECIP HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST...BUT SOME SCATTERED
POST-FRONTAL SHRA ARE FIRING IN MODEST INSTABILITY. EXPECT THESE
TO PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. KEPT THE THUNDER CHANCES GOING IN THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE
SUNSET...WHERE MORE SUN HAS BEEN SEEN TODAY. ONLY EXPECT A FEW
LINGERING SHRA AROUND 00Z IN THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE ENDING DURING
THE EVENING. 25-35 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH DURING THAT TIME
AS WELL.

BAND OF POST-FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL SWING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING
AS WELL. A SHORT PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS. THEN...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY IN
MICHIGAN YOOPER COUNTRY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND
12Z. EXPECT THIS TO MANIFEST MAINLY IN THE FORM OF REINFORCED
CLOUD COVER...BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH JUICE TO GET A FEW
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80 BY SUNRISE.

PREVIOUS LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS AT THE LOWER END OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. CONSIDERING THE WIND AND EXPECTED
CLOUDS...RAISED TEMPERATURES MORE TOWARDS THE MEAN OF THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEYOND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES AND SOME CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AS IT PASSES JUST NORTH OF
THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY....EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WIND SHIFT
TO THE SW IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AND WHILE RIDGE
WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST...THINK THAT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL
BE ALLOWED TO DECOUPLE. THUS...OPTED TO STAY CLOSER TO THE
MOS/ECMWF VALUES AND NOT THE WARMER NAME TEMPS.

COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MAKE IT`S APPROACH THURSDAY...WITH
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS
SHOULD...DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...BRINGING TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 60`S AND LOWER 70`S ACROSS THE REGION AS 850HPA
TEMPS APPROACH +10C. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SLOW WITH THE
BOUNDARY SO VERY LOW POPS WERE KEPT IN THE FORECAST UNTIL LATE.
HOWEVER...THE NAM AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE ECMWF...SUGGEST AN
AREA OF MOISTURE MAY BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO SOME OF THE REGION BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE PLACEMENT AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THESE SHOWERS...THOUGHT IT BEST TO JUST KEEP POPS
LOW FOR NOW. VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT
IN GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH THURSDAY AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER MAY
BE POSSIBLE LATE WITH THIN CAPE SUGGESTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS.

COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY WHEN A UPPER WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOP
AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
THE STRENGTH OF THIS LOW AND PLACEMENT BUT LIKELY TO LOW-CATEGORICAL
POPS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN ELEVATED UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES LATE FRIDAY...BUT
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM BEING AS WARM AS THEY WERE ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DRYING TREND IS INDICATED FOR THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. THE COOL DOWN
WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT THOUGH AS FLAT RIDGING IS ECMWF AND GFS
PROGGED TO BUILD AND MODERATE TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FKL/DUJ REMAIN AT IFR/LIFR IN THE COLDER AIRMASS. EXPECT SOME
IMPROVEMENT BY 21Z OR THEREAFTER AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE
NORTH. SOME SCATTERED SHRA ARE ALSO OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
NEAR LBE/MGW BEFORE 00Z...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF.
OTHER SITES AT VFR CURRENTLY...BUT EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING IN POST-FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS IN
COLD ADVECTION PATTERN. CIGS WILL THEN LIFT BACK TO MVFR DURING
THE NIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF MAINLY SCT CLOUD COVERAGE.
HOWEVER...WEAK SYSTEM DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SHOULD
REESTABLISH SOME CLOUD COVER ACROSS WESTERN PA/NORTHERN WV AFTER
10Z. EXPECTING CIGS TO REMAIN VFR AT THIS TIME...WITH POSSIBLY A
FEW ISOLATED SHSN.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THE CROSSING OF LOW PRESSURE ON
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 311929
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
329 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF
INTO THE ATLANTIC LATE. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE AWAY THURSDAY. LOW
PRESSURE CROSSING CANADA AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ARRIVE FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
THIS EVENING. RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS
OF THE AREA WILL BE ENDING BY LATE EVENING. CLOUDS WILL ACTUALLY
CLEAR OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY AS WELL. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY TO NORTHWEST IN THE EVENING AND STAY AROUND
10-15 MPH. THIS WILL LEAD TO LESS THAN IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. STILL MANY LOCATIONS COULD GET INTO THE 20`S
AND LOW 30`S OVERNIGHT WITH THE COLDER AIRMASS, GOING A HAIR COOLER
THAN MET/MAV GUIDANCE (PARTICULARLY WITH AREAS THAT SEE A LIGHT SNOW
COVER) OVERALL BUT STAYED CLOSE TO MET/MAV/LAV WITH MOST ELEMENTS.

TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS COULD BE A FEW
INCHES, MAINLY ON GRASS. THE WINTER WEATHER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SLICK SPOTS THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
ICY SPOTS OVERNIGHT WILL BE COVERED IN THE HWO FOR THOSE AREAS THAT
SEE FROZEN PRECIPITATION.

GROWING SEASON EXTENDED UNTIL APRIL 11TH FOR THE DELMARVA, NO FROST
PRODUCT CONSIDERATIONS UNTIL THEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL MEAN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND 10 MPH. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO AROUND 0C SUGGEST A FAIRLY DECENT SHOT AT
LOW 50`S FOR PHL WITH QUITE A BIT LESS SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY. MET/MAV
USED WITH MOST ELEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO APRIL`S FOOL JOKE HERE...LOOKS LIKE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SPRING- LIKE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE LONG TERM.

THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL STOP
RECHARGING ON CANADIAN COLD AIR AND UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RETURN BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH SOME RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST NEXT WEEK. THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT RAIN WILL BE THE
P-TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
LATE PART OF THE WEEK...BEFORE RETURNING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WED NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WED NIGHT AND A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THU.

THU NIGHT THRU SAT...A SUBTLE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND FRI. CHCS FOR SHOWERS INCREASE FROM THE
W THU NIGHT AND THEN A LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND
MOVES ALONG IT ACROSS OUR AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THE LOW DEEPENS
RATHER STRONGLY...SO A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN AND SCT TSTMS EXPECTED.
LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ATTM. PRECIP
TAPERS OFF FROM W TO E SAT MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THU
NIGHT THRU FRI AND THEN DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SAT.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY DRY. FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE N/W MON
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS STATES MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS OUR AREA. FOLLOWED WPC
POPS WITH MOSTLY CHC SHOWERS MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION
IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND
SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR ONCE THE RAIN ARRIVES, AS
LATE AS 22Z FOR ACY. THIS WILL BE A QUICK SHOT OF RAIN, MAINLY LIGHT
AND END BY 04Z ACROSS THE REGION. POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN MAY
RESULT IN BRIEF INTERVALS OF IFR CEILINGS WHICH WILL BE ADDED AS
NEEDED TO THE TAFS. THE RAIN MAY END BY 02Z WEST OF PHL. CEILINGS
WILL IMPROVE AFTER THE RAIN ENDS TO VFR BY SUNRISE. WINDS WILL ALSO
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
THIS EVENING WITH SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. ISOLATED WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU...VFR EXPECTED.
THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING..PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS
    AND A FEW TSTMS FRI/FRI NIGHT.
SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING AFTER
A PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SCA WIND GUSTS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BE AROUND FIVE FEET.
WITH THE FRONT DEPARTING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY AROUND 10Z
WEDNESDAY. ALLOWING SCA TO EXPIRE AT THAT TIME. SUB SCA SEAS AND
WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING...FAIR WEATHER. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON/O`HARA



000
FXUS61 KPHI 311929
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
329 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF
INTO THE ATLANTIC LATE. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE AWAY THURSDAY. LOW
PRESSURE CROSSING CANADA AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ARRIVE FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
THIS EVENING. RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS
OF THE AREA WILL BE ENDING BY LATE EVENING. CLOUDS WILL ACTUALLY
CLEAR OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY AS WELL. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY TO NORTHWEST IN THE EVENING AND STAY AROUND
10-15 MPH. THIS WILL LEAD TO LESS THAN IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. STILL MANY LOCATIONS COULD GET INTO THE 20`S
AND LOW 30`S OVERNIGHT WITH THE COLDER AIRMASS, GOING A HAIR COOLER
THAN MET/MAV GUIDANCE (PARTICULARLY WITH AREAS THAT SEE A LIGHT SNOW
COVER) OVERALL BUT STAYED CLOSE TO MET/MAV/LAV WITH MOST ELEMENTS.

TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS COULD BE A FEW
INCHES, MAINLY ON GRASS. THE WINTER WEATHER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SLICK SPOTS THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
ICY SPOTS OVERNIGHT WILL BE COVERED IN THE HWO FOR THOSE AREAS THAT
SEE FROZEN PRECIPITATION.

GROWING SEASON EXTENDED UNTIL APRIL 11TH FOR THE DELMARVA, NO FROST
PRODUCT CONSIDERATIONS UNTIL THEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL MEAN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND 10 MPH. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO AROUND 0C SUGGEST A FAIRLY DECENT SHOT AT
LOW 50`S FOR PHL WITH QUITE A BIT LESS SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY. MET/MAV
USED WITH MOST ELEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO APRIL`S FOOL JOKE HERE...LOOKS LIKE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SPRING- LIKE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE LONG TERM.

THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL STOP
RECHARGING ON CANADIAN COLD AIR AND UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RETURN BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH SOME RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST NEXT WEEK. THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT RAIN WILL BE THE
P-TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
LATE PART OF THE WEEK...BEFORE RETURNING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WED NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WED NIGHT AND A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THU.

THU NIGHT THRU SAT...A SUBTLE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND FRI. CHCS FOR SHOWERS INCREASE FROM THE
W THU NIGHT AND THEN A LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND
MOVES ALONG IT ACROSS OUR AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THE LOW DEEPENS
RATHER STRONGLY...SO A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN AND SCT TSTMS EXPECTED.
LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ATTM. PRECIP
TAPERS OFF FROM W TO E SAT MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THU
NIGHT THRU FRI AND THEN DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SAT.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY DRY. FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE N/W MON
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS STATES MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS OUR AREA. FOLLOWED WPC
POPS WITH MOSTLY CHC SHOWERS MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION
IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND
SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR ONCE THE RAIN ARRIVES, AS
LATE AS 22Z FOR ACY. THIS WILL BE A QUICK SHOT OF RAIN, MAINLY LIGHT
AND END BY 04Z ACROSS THE REGION. POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN MAY
RESULT IN BRIEF INTERVALS OF IFR CEILINGS WHICH WILL BE ADDED AS
NEEDED TO THE TAFS. THE RAIN MAY END BY 02Z WEST OF PHL. CEILINGS
WILL IMPROVE AFTER THE RAIN ENDS TO VFR BY SUNRISE. WINDS WILL ALSO
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
THIS EVENING WITH SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. ISOLATED WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU...VFR EXPECTED.
THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING..PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS
    AND A FEW TSTMS FRI/FRI NIGHT.
SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING AFTER
A PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SCA WIND GUSTS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BE AROUND FIVE FEET.
WITH THE FRONT DEPARTING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY AROUND 10Z
WEDNESDAY. ALLOWING SCA TO EXPIRE AT THAT TIME. SUB SCA SEAS AND
WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING...FAIR WEATHER. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON/O`HARA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 311929
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
329 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF
INTO THE ATLANTIC LATE. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE AWAY THURSDAY. LOW
PRESSURE CROSSING CANADA AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ARRIVE FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
THIS EVENING. RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS
OF THE AREA WILL BE ENDING BY LATE EVENING. CLOUDS WILL ACTUALLY
CLEAR OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY AS WELL. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY TO NORTHWEST IN THE EVENING AND STAY AROUND
10-15 MPH. THIS WILL LEAD TO LESS THAN IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. STILL MANY LOCATIONS COULD GET INTO THE 20`S
AND LOW 30`S OVERNIGHT WITH THE COLDER AIRMASS, GOING A HAIR COOLER
THAN MET/MAV GUIDANCE (PARTICULARLY WITH AREAS THAT SEE A LIGHT SNOW
COVER) OVERALL BUT STAYED CLOSE TO MET/MAV/LAV WITH MOST ELEMENTS.

TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS COULD BE A FEW
INCHES, MAINLY ON GRASS. THE WINTER WEATHER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SLICK SPOTS THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
ICY SPOTS OVERNIGHT WILL BE COVERED IN THE HWO FOR THOSE AREAS THAT
SEE FROZEN PRECIPITATION.

GROWING SEASON EXTENDED UNTIL APRIL 11TH FOR THE DELMARVA, NO FROST
PRODUCT CONSIDERATIONS UNTIL THEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL MEAN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND 10 MPH. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO AROUND 0C SUGGEST A FAIRLY DECENT SHOT AT
LOW 50`S FOR PHL WITH QUITE A BIT LESS SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY. MET/MAV
USED WITH MOST ELEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO APRIL`S FOOL JOKE HERE...LOOKS LIKE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SPRING- LIKE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE LONG TERM.

THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL STOP
RECHARGING ON CANADIAN COLD AIR AND UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RETURN BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH SOME RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST NEXT WEEK. THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT RAIN WILL BE THE
P-TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
LATE PART OF THE WEEK...BEFORE RETURNING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WED NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WED NIGHT AND A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THU.

THU NIGHT THRU SAT...A SUBTLE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND FRI. CHCS FOR SHOWERS INCREASE FROM THE
W THU NIGHT AND THEN A LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND
MOVES ALONG IT ACROSS OUR AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THE LOW DEEPENS
RATHER STRONGLY...SO A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN AND SCT TSTMS EXPECTED.
LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ATTM. PRECIP
TAPERS OFF FROM W TO E SAT MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THU
NIGHT THRU FRI AND THEN DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SAT.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY DRY. FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE N/W MON
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS STATES MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS OUR AREA. FOLLOWED WPC
POPS WITH MOSTLY CHC SHOWERS MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION
IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND
SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR ONCE THE RAIN ARRIVES, AS
LATE AS 22Z FOR ACY. THIS WILL BE A QUICK SHOT OF RAIN, MAINLY LIGHT
AND END BY 04Z ACROSS THE REGION. POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN MAY
RESULT IN BRIEF INTERVALS OF IFR CEILINGS WHICH WILL BE ADDED AS
NEEDED TO THE TAFS. THE RAIN MAY END BY 02Z WEST OF PHL. CEILINGS
WILL IMPROVE AFTER THE RAIN ENDS TO VFR BY SUNRISE. WINDS WILL ALSO
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
THIS EVENING WITH SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. ISOLATED WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU...VFR EXPECTED.
THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING..PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS
    AND A FEW TSTMS FRI/FRI NIGHT.
SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING AFTER
A PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SCA WIND GUSTS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BE AROUND FIVE FEET.
WITH THE FRONT DEPARTING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY AROUND 10Z
WEDNESDAY. ALLOWING SCA TO EXPIRE AT THAT TIME. SUB SCA SEAS AND
WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING...FAIR WEATHER. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON/O`HARA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 311929
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
329 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF
INTO THE ATLANTIC LATE. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE AWAY THURSDAY. LOW
PRESSURE CROSSING CANADA AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ARRIVE FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
THIS EVENING. RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS
OF THE AREA WILL BE ENDING BY LATE EVENING. CLOUDS WILL ACTUALLY
CLEAR OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY AS WELL. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY TO NORTHWEST IN THE EVENING AND STAY AROUND
10-15 MPH. THIS WILL LEAD TO LESS THAN IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. STILL MANY LOCATIONS COULD GET INTO THE 20`S
AND LOW 30`S OVERNIGHT WITH THE COLDER AIRMASS, GOING A HAIR COOLER
THAN MET/MAV GUIDANCE (PARTICULARLY WITH AREAS THAT SEE A LIGHT SNOW
COVER) OVERALL BUT STAYED CLOSE TO MET/MAV/LAV WITH MOST ELEMENTS.

TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS COULD BE A FEW
INCHES, MAINLY ON GRASS. THE WINTER WEATHER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SLICK SPOTS THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
ICY SPOTS OVERNIGHT WILL BE COVERED IN THE HWO FOR THOSE AREAS THAT
SEE FROZEN PRECIPITATION.

GROWING SEASON EXTENDED UNTIL APRIL 11TH FOR THE DELMARVA, NO FROST
PRODUCT CONSIDERATIONS UNTIL THEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL MEAN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND 10 MPH. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO AROUND 0C SUGGEST A FAIRLY DECENT SHOT AT
LOW 50`S FOR PHL WITH QUITE A BIT LESS SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY. MET/MAV
USED WITH MOST ELEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO APRIL`S FOOL JOKE HERE...LOOKS LIKE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SPRING- LIKE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE LONG TERM.

THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL STOP
RECHARGING ON CANADIAN COLD AIR AND UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RETURN BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH SOME RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST NEXT WEEK. THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT RAIN WILL BE THE
P-TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
LATE PART OF THE WEEK...BEFORE RETURNING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WED NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WED NIGHT AND A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THU.

THU NIGHT THRU SAT...A SUBTLE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND FRI. CHCS FOR SHOWERS INCREASE FROM THE
W THU NIGHT AND THEN A LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND
MOVES ALONG IT ACROSS OUR AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THE LOW DEEPENS
RATHER STRONGLY...SO A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN AND SCT TSTMS EXPECTED.
LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ATTM. PRECIP
TAPERS OFF FROM W TO E SAT MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THU
NIGHT THRU FRI AND THEN DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SAT.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY DRY. FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE N/W MON
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS STATES MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS OUR AREA. FOLLOWED WPC
POPS WITH MOSTLY CHC SHOWERS MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION
IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND
SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR ONCE THE RAIN ARRIVES, AS
LATE AS 22Z FOR ACY. THIS WILL BE A QUICK SHOT OF RAIN, MAINLY LIGHT
AND END BY 04Z ACROSS THE REGION. POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN MAY
RESULT IN BRIEF INTERVALS OF IFR CEILINGS WHICH WILL BE ADDED AS
NEEDED TO THE TAFS. THE RAIN MAY END BY 02Z WEST OF PHL. CEILINGS
WILL IMPROVE AFTER THE RAIN ENDS TO VFR BY SUNRISE. WINDS WILL ALSO
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
THIS EVENING WITH SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. ISOLATED WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU...VFR EXPECTED.
THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING..PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS
    AND A FEW TSTMS FRI/FRI NIGHT.
SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING AFTER
A PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SCA WIND GUSTS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BE AROUND FIVE FEET.
WITH THE FRONT DEPARTING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY AROUND 10Z
WEDNESDAY. ALLOWING SCA TO EXPIRE AT THAT TIME. SUB SCA SEAS AND
WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING...FAIR WEATHER. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON/O`HARA



000
FXUS61 KLWX 311906
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
306 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT HAVE WARMED INTO THE 60S WITH A FEW 70 DEGREE READINGS OVER
CENTRAL VA. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL BE COMMON...EXCEPT
UP TO 50 MPH ABOVE 1500 FEET WITHIN THE BLUE RIDGE AND POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON DC METRO AREAS AND SURROUNDING
SUBURBS TO THE NORTH AND WEST. BUFKIT PROFILES INDICATED AN
INVERTED-V SUBCLOUD LAYER AND THIN CAPE...INDICATIVE OF GUSTY WIND
POTENTIAL. ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING DOWN STRONGER WIND GUSTS AOA 40 MPH. THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CLEAR THE BAY COMMUNITIES AROUND 03Z.

FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
OCCUR WITH A COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES.
PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.

MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS...EVEN A FEW 20S OUT WEST
AND NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE.

HIGH PRESURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING
A RETURN TO SUNSHINE BUT WITH COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S
TO NEAR 60 IN SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAKE ABOUT A TWO-DAY VISIT DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK...ATTEMPTING TO HANG ON THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AS ANOTHER COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE EFFECT ON
THU FROM THIS HIGH WILL BE ANOTHER WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE DAY IN TERMS
OF TEMPS. S-SW WINDS CHANNELING THRU THE VLYS OF THE APLCNS WILL
BRING TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S AND POSSIBLY SOME L80S...WHILE THE
PIEDMONT/COASTAL REGION STAYS A BIT MORE MODERATED BUT STILL NEAR
THE 70F DEG MARK BY MID AFTN.

MEANWHILE...A LARGE BUT FAIRLY DISORGANIZED FETCH OF GULF MOISTURE
WILL BE COLLECTING OVER THE MS RVR VLY AND DEEP SOUTH...AS A SERIES
OF UPPER WAVES BEGIN TO SHAPE IT WELL TO OUR WEST. A LONG
OUTSTRETCHED WARM FRONTAL REGION WILL BE SET UP TO OUR NORTH...FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST TO NEW ENGLAND AS WE HEAD INTO FRI. PLENTY OF
PRECIP WILL BE HANGING AROUND THIS BOUNDARY...STAYING LARGELY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE AREA UNTIL DAWN FRI. A WEAKER LOW PRES SYSTEM THAT
WILL DEVELOP THU NIGHT INTO FRI WILL SLIDE UP TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND...BUT A MORE POTENT LOW WILL BE FORMING OVER THE LOWER OHIO
RVR VLY. THE LOW WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH AS IT APPROACHES...BUT THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE STRENGTHENING THRU THE DAYTIME HRS. POCKETS OF
PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY...AS TEMPS RISE BACK INTO THE 60S/70S. THE COLD FRONT
WILL THEN MOVE THRU THE REGION LATE INTO THE NIGHTTIME HRS.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON WHATEVER LEFTOVER INSTABILITY
THERE IS FROM THE AFTN/EVE HEATING AND MAY COME IN TOO LATE TO
MAXIMIZE THIS POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THE LOW-MID SHEAR WILL BE POTENT
ENOUGH TO DRIVE AN ORGANIZED LINE - ALBEIT SHALLOW - BUT ENOUGH TO
MIX DOWN GUSTY WINDS IN ISOLATED AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WHILE
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE FROM NORTHERN TX/OK. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE SYSTEMS MAY BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE
CWA ENDING LATE SAT MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME UPSLOPE
PRECIP TO THE WEST MAY LAST LONGER. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO MON
NIGHT.

WINDY CONDITIONS FROM FRI INTO SAT NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR SAT NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY HROUGH SUNDAY/...
GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST AT ALL TERMINAL SITES INTO THIS EVENING.
WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS WILL BE COMMON AT
THE TERMINALS. SHOWERS...PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FROM KDCA TO KMTN TO KBWI TO KMRB. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONGER WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KTS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
LATER THIS EVENING AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS. VFR WILL PERSIST ON WEDNESDAY.

SOLID VFR CONDS ON THU AS A LOW PRES SYSTEM APPROACHES INTO EARLY
FRI. THIS SYSTEM WILL TAKE A COUPLE OF DAYS TO PASS
COMPLETELY...W/ SOME ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY W/ A COLD FRONT
LATE FRI NIGHT AND RAIN SHOWERS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE.

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS REGION FRI NIGHT... BRINGING RAINY
CONDITIONS THROUGH SAT. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS FOR LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
&&

.MARINE...
STRONG SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS OCCURRING ON THE WATERS. GALE
CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE REGION. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
BE CAPABLE OF MIXING DOWN 30 TO 40 KT WIND GUSTS. ALL OF THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD CLEAR THE WATERS BY 03Z. SCA WINDS WILL PERSIST
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE DURING THE DAY.

HIGH PRES MOVING OFFSHORE WED NIGHT INTO THU WILL CREATE PRES
GRADIENT STRONG ENOUGH FOR SCA CONDS OVER THE WATERS BOTH THU AND
FRI AFTNS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU THE REGION LATE FRI
NIGHT.

SCA LIKELY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BEHIND COLD AS WINDY CONDITIONS
DEVELOP. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS LATE SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING FOR SEVERAL VIRGINIA COUNTIES IN THE
HIGHLANDS...SHENANDOAH VALLEY...BLUE RIDGE AND CENTRAL FOOTHILLS.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ALONG WITH RH VALUES
BELOW 30 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ025>027-
     029-030-036>040-050-051-501-502-504-507-508.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ025>027-029-
     503-504-507-508.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ055-501-502-
     505-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-540>543.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ530-531-535-536-538-539.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...IR
AVIATION...GMS/IR/KRW
MARINE...GMS/IR/KRW
FIRE WEATHER...KRW



000
FXUS61 KLWX 311906
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
306 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT HAVE WARMED INTO THE 60S WITH A FEW 70 DEGREE READINGS OVER
CENTRAL VA. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL BE COMMON...EXCEPT
UP TO 50 MPH ABOVE 1500 FEET WITHIN THE BLUE RIDGE AND POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON DC METRO AREAS AND SURROUNDING
SUBURBS TO THE NORTH AND WEST. BUFKIT PROFILES INDICATED AN
INVERTED-V SUBCLOUD LAYER AND THIN CAPE...INDICATIVE OF GUSTY WIND
POTENTIAL. ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING DOWN STRONGER WIND GUSTS AOA 40 MPH. THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CLEAR THE BAY COMMUNITIES AROUND 03Z.

FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
OCCUR WITH A COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES.
PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.

MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS...EVEN A FEW 20S OUT WEST
AND NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE.

HIGH PRESURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING
A RETURN TO SUNSHINE BUT WITH COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S
TO NEAR 60 IN SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAKE ABOUT A TWO-DAY VISIT DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK...ATTEMPTING TO HANG ON THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AS ANOTHER COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE EFFECT ON
THU FROM THIS HIGH WILL BE ANOTHER WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE DAY IN TERMS
OF TEMPS. S-SW WINDS CHANNELING THRU THE VLYS OF THE APLCNS WILL
BRING TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S AND POSSIBLY SOME L80S...WHILE THE
PIEDMONT/COASTAL REGION STAYS A BIT MORE MODERATED BUT STILL NEAR
THE 70F DEG MARK BY MID AFTN.

MEANWHILE...A LARGE BUT FAIRLY DISORGANIZED FETCH OF GULF MOISTURE
WILL BE COLLECTING OVER THE MS RVR VLY AND DEEP SOUTH...AS A SERIES
OF UPPER WAVES BEGIN TO SHAPE IT WELL TO OUR WEST. A LONG
OUTSTRETCHED WARM FRONTAL REGION WILL BE SET UP TO OUR NORTH...FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST TO NEW ENGLAND AS WE HEAD INTO FRI. PLENTY OF
PRECIP WILL BE HANGING AROUND THIS BOUNDARY...STAYING LARGELY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE AREA UNTIL DAWN FRI. A WEAKER LOW PRES SYSTEM THAT
WILL DEVELOP THU NIGHT INTO FRI WILL SLIDE UP TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND...BUT A MORE POTENT LOW WILL BE FORMING OVER THE LOWER OHIO
RVR VLY. THE LOW WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH AS IT APPROACHES...BUT THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE STRENGTHENING THRU THE DAYTIME HRS. POCKETS OF
PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY...AS TEMPS RISE BACK INTO THE 60S/70S. THE COLD FRONT
WILL THEN MOVE THRU THE REGION LATE INTO THE NIGHTTIME HRS.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON WHATEVER LEFTOVER INSTABILITY
THERE IS FROM THE AFTN/EVE HEATING AND MAY COME IN TOO LATE TO
MAXIMIZE THIS POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THE LOW-MID SHEAR WILL BE POTENT
ENOUGH TO DRIVE AN ORGANIZED LINE - ALBEIT SHALLOW - BUT ENOUGH TO
MIX DOWN GUSTY WINDS IN ISOLATED AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WHILE
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE FROM NORTHERN TX/OK. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE SYSTEMS MAY BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE
CWA ENDING LATE SAT MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME UPSLOPE
PRECIP TO THE WEST MAY LAST LONGER. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO MON
NIGHT.

WINDY CONDITIONS FROM FRI INTO SAT NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR SAT NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY HROUGH SUNDAY/...
GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST AT ALL TERMINAL SITES INTO THIS EVENING.
WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS WILL BE COMMON AT
THE TERMINALS. SHOWERS...PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FROM KDCA TO KMTN TO KBWI TO KMRB. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONGER WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KTS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
LATER THIS EVENING AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS. VFR WILL PERSIST ON WEDNESDAY.

SOLID VFR CONDS ON THU AS A LOW PRES SYSTEM APPROACHES INTO EARLY
FRI. THIS SYSTEM WILL TAKE A COUPLE OF DAYS TO PASS
COMPLETELY...W/ SOME ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY W/ A COLD FRONT
LATE FRI NIGHT AND RAIN SHOWERS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE.

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS REGION FRI NIGHT... BRINGING RAINY
CONDITIONS THROUGH SAT. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS FOR LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
&&

.MARINE...
STRONG SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS OCCURRING ON THE WATERS. GALE
CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE REGION. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
BE CAPABLE OF MIXING DOWN 30 TO 40 KT WIND GUSTS. ALL OF THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD CLEAR THE WATERS BY 03Z. SCA WINDS WILL PERSIST
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE DURING THE DAY.

HIGH PRES MOVING OFFSHORE WED NIGHT INTO THU WILL CREATE PRES
GRADIENT STRONG ENOUGH FOR SCA CONDS OVER THE WATERS BOTH THU AND
FRI AFTNS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU THE REGION LATE FRI
NIGHT.

SCA LIKELY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BEHIND COLD AS WINDY CONDITIONS
DEVELOP. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS LATE SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING FOR SEVERAL VIRGINIA COUNTIES IN THE
HIGHLANDS...SHENANDOAH VALLEY...BLUE RIDGE AND CENTRAL FOOTHILLS.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ALONG WITH RH VALUES
BELOW 30 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ025>027-
     029-030-036>040-050-051-501-502-504-507-508.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ025>027-029-
     503-504-507-508.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ055-501-502-
     505-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-540>543.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ530-531-535-536-538-539.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...IR
AVIATION...GMS/IR/KRW
MARINE...GMS/IR/KRW
FIRE WEATHER...KRW




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 311857
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
257 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST OHIO WILL TACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN RETURNS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATE MORNING SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NE
OHIO...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER FL. SKIES ARE MAINLY SKC ACRS THE
LOCAL AREA...HOWEVER LATEST SATELLITE REVEALS BKN/OVC CLOUD COVER
IN NORTHERN WV/PA/ERN OH..AND GIVEN A WNW FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT
SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AKQ CWA AFTER 18Z. DEW PTS REMAIN VERY LOW...SO PRECIP CHANCES
WILL GENLY BE CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN/NE SECTIONS OF THE CWA...FROM
ABOUT 20Z LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH 02Z THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE
HIGH-RES MODEL DATA DEPICTS MEASURABLE QPF ALL THE WAY INTO SRN
VA/NE NC...GIVEN HOW DRY IT WILL BE AND THAT CURRENT OBS SHOW
PRECIP FALLING ALONG/N OF THE SFC LOW TRACK...WILL FAVOR A DRIER
FORECAST CLOSE TO THAT DEPICTED BY THE 12Z NAM12.

RAISED HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST OVER MUCH
OF THE INTERIOR DUE TO DEEP MIXING...SLOWER ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND
CURRENT OBS. HIGHS RANGING FM THE MID 60S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE
TO THE LOWER-MID 70S MOST OTHER AREAS. BREEZY SW WINDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTN AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
WIND SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS MAINLY UP TO 25-35 MPH.
THE COMBINATION OF DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ENHANCE FIRE
DANGER DURING THE AFTN AND A STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED. SEE FIRE
WX SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.

CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASE LATE THIS AFTN/AFTER 20Z AND THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LO APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH QPF (UNDER A TENTH OF INCH) BUT POPS ARE NOW UP TO
60-70% OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING
WILL BE. CONDS DRY OUT QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON WED. A COOLER DAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S FOR INTERIOR VA/NE NC...AND IN THE MID-UPPER 50S CLOSER
TO THE COAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE WED
NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 MOST LOCATIONS. WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WEATHER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE WITHIN A
WARMING AIRMASS ESPECIALLY AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP BY THE
AFTN. MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S ONCE AGAIN
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRI-SAT...WITH A NOD TOWARD THE 30/12Z ECWMF.
BIGGEST CHANGES COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO IS PUSHING THE PRECIP BACK 6-
12 HRS...WITH THE FRONT NOW PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION FRI NIGHT-
SAT MORNING. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WRN ATLANTIC WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF
MEX AS WELL AS THE GULF STREAM. POTENT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE LOCATES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRI...WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATING OVER SERN CANADA. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT REACHES THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS LATE FRI...LIKELY STALLING AS UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT LAGS BEHIND. WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE SW FLOW IN TANDEM
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE REGION FRI...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE NRN
PIEDMONT TO THE MD ERN SHORE. HEIGHT FALLS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SFC/THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. THETA-E ADVECTION AND A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS (TEMPS IN
THE MID-UPPER 70S) WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
OVER THE SRN/SERN LOCAL AREA...AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH. THIS MAY
BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF SHOWERS FRI AFTERNOON FROM SRN VA TO THE
COAST. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI AFTERNOON. A SRN
STREAM SYSTEM LIFTING FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY-NRN MID
ATLANTIC REGION FRI NIGHT-SAT WILL DEVELOP A SFC LOW ALONG THE
BOUNDARY IN THE VIC OF THE OH VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES. SFC LOW
PROGGED TO LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT
MORNING...PUSHING THE COLD FRONT THRU THE LOCAL AREA LATE FRI
NIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ATTM APPEAR TO BE FRI
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE
INCREASED TO HIGH END CHANCE POPS. PRECIP EXITS THE COAST SAT
AFTERNOON (POSSIBLY QUICKER) AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. COOLER SAT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S-LOW 60S N TO MID-
UPPER 60S S. DRY SUN WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION. HIGHS SUN LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 50S ERN
SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. UNSETTLED WEATHER PROGGED TO RETURN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVE. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT...GUSTY SW WINDS (25-30 KT) ARE EXPECTED TIL AROUND
22-23Z.

A BRIEF -SHRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KSBY THIS EVE. DRY WX AND
VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED WED AND THU. GUSTY SW WINDS MAY AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
MNLY W WNDS STARTING OFF EARLY TDA...W/ SPEEDS AOB 10 KT. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NW TDY...RESULTING IN AN INCRS IN
SW FLOW OVR THE RGN BY THIS AFTERNOON. FLOW INCREASES TO 15-25 KT
OVER THE WATER. WAVES BUILD TO 2-3 FT AND SEAS 3-4 FT. ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATER TNGT W/ FLOW BECOMING NW POST
FRONTAL. BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
BEFORE LO LVL CAA SURGE KICKS IN. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT
LATE TNGT...CONT WED MRNG. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT LATE TNGT INTO
WEDS MRNG. SFC HI PRES LOCATES OVER THE WATER WEDS MRNG...ALLOWING
SCA CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE MIDDAY/AFTN. HI PRES SLIDES OFFSHORE
THURS AS S FLOW RETURNS THURS-FRI...AVGG 10-20 KT. COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE WATER LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE POST FRONTAL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO 20 TO 25% RANGE ACROSS VA AND
NORTHEAST NC WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER. AFTER COORDINATING
WITH THE NC AND VA FORESTRY OFFICIALS AND SURROUNDING NWS
OFFICES...WILL MAINTAIN AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT THRU 6
PM. CRITICAL RED FLAG CRITERIA MAY BE MET IN A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...10-HR DEAD FUEL MOISTURE VALUES
ARE STILL MARGINAL OR SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING THE NECESSARY THRESHOLD
OF 7%. ON THE EASTERN SHORE...A STATEMENT WILL NOT BE NECESSARY
DUE TO HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...BMD/MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...ALB/SAM
FIRE WEATHER...JDM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 311857
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
257 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST OHIO WILL TACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN RETURNS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATE MORNING SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NE
OHIO...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER FL. SKIES ARE MAINLY SKC ACRS THE
LOCAL AREA...HOWEVER LATEST SATELLITE REVEALS BKN/OVC CLOUD COVER
IN NORTHERN WV/PA/ERN OH..AND GIVEN A WNW FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT
SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AKQ CWA AFTER 18Z. DEW PTS REMAIN VERY LOW...SO PRECIP CHANCES
WILL GENLY BE CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN/NE SECTIONS OF THE CWA...FROM
ABOUT 20Z LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH 02Z THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE
HIGH-RES MODEL DATA DEPICTS MEASURABLE QPF ALL THE WAY INTO SRN
VA/NE NC...GIVEN HOW DRY IT WILL BE AND THAT CURRENT OBS SHOW
PRECIP FALLING ALONG/N OF THE SFC LOW TRACK...WILL FAVOR A DRIER
FORECAST CLOSE TO THAT DEPICTED BY THE 12Z NAM12.

RAISED HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST OVER MUCH
OF THE INTERIOR DUE TO DEEP MIXING...SLOWER ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND
CURRENT OBS. HIGHS RANGING FM THE MID 60S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE
TO THE LOWER-MID 70S MOST OTHER AREAS. BREEZY SW WINDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTN AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
WIND SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS MAINLY UP TO 25-35 MPH.
THE COMBINATION OF DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ENHANCE FIRE
DANGER DURING THE AFTN AND A STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED. SEE FIRE
WX SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.

CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASE LATE THIS AFTN/AFTER 20Z AND THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LO APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH QPF (UNDER A TENTH OF INCH) BUT POPS ARE NOW UP TO
60-70% OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING
WILL BE. CONDS DRY OUT QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON WED. A COOLER DAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S FOR INTERIOR VA/NE NC...AND IN THE MID-UPPER 50S CLOSER
TO THE COAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE WED
NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 MOST LOCATIONS. WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WEATHER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE WITHIN A
WARMING AIRMASS ESPECIALLY AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP BY THE
AFTN. MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S ONCE AGAIN
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRI-SAT...WITH A NOD TOWARD THE 30/12Z ECWMF.
BIGGEST CHANGES COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO IS PUSHING THE PRECIP BACK 6-
12 HRS...WITH THE FRONT NOW PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION FRI NIGHT-
SAT MORNING. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WRN ATLANTIC WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF
MEX AS WELL AS THE GULF STREAM. POTENT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE LOCATES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRI...WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATING OVER SERN CANADA. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT REACHES THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS LATE FRI...LIKELY STALLING AS UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT LAGS BEHIND. WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE SW FLOW IN TANDEM
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE REGION FRI...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE NRN
PIEDMONT TO THE MD ERN SHORE. HEIGHT FALLS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SFC/THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. THETA-E ADVECTION AND A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS (TEMPS IN
THE MID-UPPER 70S) WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
OVER THE SRN/SERN LOCAL AREA...AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH. THIS MAY
BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF SHOWERS FRI AFTERNOON FROM SRN VA TO THE
COAST. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI AFTERNOON. A SRN
STREAM SYSTEM LIFTING FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY-NRN MID
ATLANTIC REGION FRI NIGHT-SAT WILL DEVELOP A SFC LOW ALONG THE
BOUNDARY IN THE VIC OF THE OH VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES. SFC LOW
PROGGED TO LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT
MORNING...PUSHING THE COLD FRONT THRU THE LOCAL AREA LATE FRI
NIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ATTM APPEAR TO BE FRI
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE
INCREASED TO HIGH END CHANCE POPS. PRECIP EXITS THE COAST SAT
AFTERNOON (POSSIBLY QUICKER) AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. COOLER SAT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S-LOW 60S N TO MID-
UPPER 60S S. DRY SUN WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION. HIGHS SUN LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 50S ERN
SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. UNSETTLED WEATHER PROGGED TO RETURN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVE. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT...GUSTY SW WINDS (25-30 KT) ARE EXPECTED TIL AROUND
22-23Z.

A BRIEF -SHRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KSBY THIS EVE. DRY WX AND
VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED WED AND THU. GUSTY SW WINDS MAY AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
MNLY W WNDS STARTING OFF EARLY TDA...W/ SPEEDS AOB 10 KT. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NW TDY...RESULTING IN AN INCRS IN
SW FLOW OVR THE RGN BY THIS AFTERNOON. FLOW INCREASES TO 15-25 KT
OVER THE WATER. WAVES BUILD TO 2-3 FT AND SEAS 3-4 FT. ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATER TNGT W/ FLOW BECOMING NW POST
FRONTAL. BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
BEFORE LO LVL CAA SURGE KICKS IN. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT
LATE TNGT...CONT WED MRNG. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT LATE TNGT INTO
WEDS MRNG. SFC HI PRES LOCATES OVER THE WATER WEDS MRNG...ALLOWING
SCA CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE MIDDAY/AFTN. HI PRES SLIDES OFFSHORE
THURS AS S FLOW RETURNS THURS-FRI...AVGG 10-20 KT. COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE WATER LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE POST FRONTAL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO 20 TO 25% RANGE ACROSS VA AND
NORTHEAST NC WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER. AFTER COORDINATING
WITH THE NC AND VA FORESTRY OFFICIALS AND SURROUNDING NWS
OFFICES...WILL MAINTAIN AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT THRU 6
PM. CRITICAL RED FLAG CRITERIA MAY BE MET IN A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...10-HR DEAD FUEL MOISTURE VALUES
ARE STILL MARGINAL OR SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING THE NECESSARY THRESHOLD
OF 7%. ON THE EASTERN SHORE...A STATEMENT WILL NOT BE NECESSARY
DUE TO HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...BMD/MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...ALB/SAM
FIRE WEATHER...JDM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 311857
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
257 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST OHIO WILL TACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN RETURNS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATE MORNING SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NE
OHIO...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER FL. SKIES ARE MAINLY SKC ACRS THE
LOCAL AREA...HOWEVER LATEST SATELLITE REVEALS BKN/OVC CLOUD COVER
IN NORTHERN WV/PA/ERN OH..AND GIVEN A WNW FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT
SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AKQ CWA AFTER 18Z. DEW PTS REMAIN VERY LOW...SO PRECIP CHANCES
WILL GENLY BE CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN/NE SECTIONS OF THE CWA...FROM
ABOUT 20Z LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH 02Z THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE
HIGH-RES MODEL DATA DEPICTS MEASURABLE QPF ALL THE WAY INTO SRN
VA/NE NC...GIVEN HOW DRY IT WILL BE AND THAT CURRENT OBS SHOW
PRECIP FALLING ALONG/N OF THE SFC LOW TRACK...WILL FAVOR A DRIER
FORECAST CLOSE TO THAT DEPICTED BY THE 12Z NAM12.

RAISED HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST OVER MUCH
OF THE INTERIOR DUE TO DEEP MIXING...SLOWER ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND
CURRENT OBS. HIGHS RANGING FM THE MID 60S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE
TO THE LOWER-MID 70S MOST OTHER AREAS. BREEZY SW WINDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTN AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
WIND SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS MAINLY UP TO 25-35 MPH.
THE COMBINATION OF DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ENHANCE FIRE
DANGER DURING THE AFTN AND A STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED. SEE FIRE
WX SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.

CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASE LATE THIS AFTN/AFTER 20Z AND THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LO APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH QPF (UNDER A TENTH OF INCH) BUT POPS ARE NOW UP TO
60-70% OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING
WILL BE. CONDS DRY OUT QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON WED. A COOLER DAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S FOR INTERIOR VA/NE NC...AND IN THE MID-UPPER 50S CLOSER
TO THE COAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE WED
NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 MOST LOCATIONS. WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WEATHER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE WITHIN A
WARMING AIRMASS ESPECIALLY AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP BY THE
AFTN. MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S ONCE AGAIN
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRI-SAT...WITH A NOD TOWARD THE 30/12Z ECWMF.
BIGGEST CHANGES COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO IS PUSHING THE PRECIP BACK 6-
12 HRS...WITH THE FRONT NOW PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION FRI NIGHT-
SAT MORNING. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WRN ATLANTIC WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF
MEX AS WELL AS THE GULF STREAM. POTENT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE LOCATES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRI...WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATING OVER SERN CANADA. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT REACHES THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS LATE FRI...LIKELY STALLING AS UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT LAGS BEHIND. WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE SW FLOW IN TANDEM
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE REGION FRI...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE NRN
PIEDMONT TO THE MD ERN SHORE. HEIGHT FALLS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SFC/THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. THETA-E ADVECTION AND A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS (TEMPS IN
THE MID-UPPER 70S) WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
OVER THE SRN/SERN LOCAL AREA...AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH. THIS MAY
BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF SHOWERS FRI AFTERNOON FROM SRN VA TO THE
COAST. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI AFTERNOON. A SRN
STREAM SYSTEM LIFTING FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY-NRN MID
ATLANTIC REGION FRI NIGHT-SAT WILL DEVELOP A SFC LOW ALONG THE
BOUNDARY IN THE VIC OF THE OH VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES. SFC LOW
PROGGED TO LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT
MORNING...PUSHING THE COLD FRONT THRU THE LOCAL AREA LATE FRI
NIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ATTM APPEAR TO BE FRI
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE
INCREASED TO HIGH END CHANCE POPS. PRECIP EXITS THE COAST SAT
AFTERNOON (POSSIBLY QUICKER) AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. COOLER SAT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S-LOW 60S N TO MID-
UPPER 60S S. DRY SUN WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION. HIGHS SUN LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 50S ERN
SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. UNSETTLED WEATHER PROGGED TO RETURN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVE. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT...GUSTY SW WINDS (25-30 KT) ARE EXPECTED TIL AROUND
22-23Z.

A BRIEF -SHRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KSBY THIS EVE. DRY WX AND
VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED WED AND THU. GUSTY SW WINDS MAY AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
MNLY W WNDS STARTING OFF EARLY TDA...W/ SPEEDS AOB 10 KT. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NW TDY...RESULTING IN AN INCRS IN
SW FLOW OVR THE RGN BY THIS AFTERNOON. FLOW INCREASES TO 15-25 KT
OVER THE WATER. WAVES BUILD TO 2-3 FT AND SEAS 3-4 FT. ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATER TNGT W/ FLOW BECOMING NW POST
FRONTAL. BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
BEFORE LO LVL CAA SURGE KICKS IN. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT
LATE TNGT...CONT WED MRNG. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT LATE TNGT INTO
WEDS MRNG. SFC HI PRES LOCATES OVER THE WATER WEDS MRNG...ALLOWING
SCA CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE MIDDAY/AFTN. HI PRES SLIDES OFFSHORE
THURS AS S FLOW RETURNS THURS-FRI...AVGG 10-20 KT. COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE WATER LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE POST FRONTAL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO 20 TO 25% RANGE ACROSS VA AND
NORTHEAST NC WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER. AFTER COORDINATING
WITH THE NC AND VA FORESTRY OFFICIALS AND SURROUNDING NWS
OFFICES...WILL MAINTAIN AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT THRU 6
PM. CRITICAL RED FLAG CRITERIA MAY BE MET IN A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...10-HR DEAD FUEL MOISTURE VALUES
ARE STILL MARGINAL OR SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING THE NECESSARY THRESHOLD
OF 7%. ON THE EASTERN SHORE...A STATEMENT WILL NOT BE NECESSARY
DUE TO HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...BMD/MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...ALB/SAM
FIRE WEATHER...JDM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 311857
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
257 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST OHIO WILL TACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN RETURNS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATE MORNING SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NE
OHIO...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER FL. SKIES ARE MAINLY SKC ACRS THE
LOCAL AREA...HOWEVER LATEST SATELLITE REVEALS BKN/OVC CLOUD COVER
IN NORTHERN WV/PA/ERN OH..AND GIVEN A WNW FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT
SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AKQ CWA AFTER 18Z. DEW PTS REMAIN VERY LOW...SO PRECIP CHANCES
WILL GENLY BE CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN/NE SECTIONS OF THE CWA...FROM
ABOUT 20Z LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH 02Z THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE
HIGH-RES MODEL DATA DEPICTS MEASURABLE QPF ALL THE WAY INTO SRN
VA/NE NC...GIVEN HOW DRY IT WILL BE AND THAT CURRENT OBS SHOW
PRECIP FALLING ALONG/N OF THE SFC LOW TRACK...WILL FAVOR A DRIER
FORECAST CLOSE TO THAT DEPICTED BY THE 12Z NAM12.

RAISED HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST OVER MUCH
OF THE INTERIOR DUE TO DEEP MIXING...SLOWER ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND
CURRENT OBS. HIGHS RANGING FM THE MID 60S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE
TO THE LOWER-MID 70S MOST OTHER AREAS. BREEZY SW WINDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTN AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
WIND SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS MAINLY UP TO 25-35 MPH.
THE COMBINATION OF DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ENHANCE FIRE
DANGER DURING THE AFTN AND A STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED. SEE FIRE
WX SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.

CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASE LATE THIS AFTN/AFTER 20Z AND THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LO APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH QPF (UNDER A TENTH OF INCH) BUT POPS ARE NOW UP TO
60-70% OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING
WILL BE. CONDS DRY OUT QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON WED. A COOLER DAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S FOR INTERIOR VA/NE NC...AND IN THE MID-UPPER 50S CLOSER
TO THE COAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE WED
NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 MOST LOCATIONS. WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WEATHER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE WITHIN A
WARMING AIRMASS ESPECIALLY AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP BY THE
AFTN. MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S ONCE AGAIN
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRI-SAT...WITH A NOD TOWARD THE 30/12Z ECWMF.
BIGGEST CHANGES COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO IS PUSHING THE PRECIP BACK 6-
12 HRS...WITH THE FRONT NOW PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION FRI NIGHT-
SAT MORNING. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WRN ATLANTIC WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF
MEX AS WELL AS THE GULF STREAM. POTENT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE LOCATES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRI...WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATING OVER SERN CANADA. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT REACHES THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS LATE FRI...LIKELY STALLING AS UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT LAGS BEHIND. WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE SW FLOW IN TANDEM
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE REGION FRI...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE NRN
PIEDMONT TO THE MD ERN SHORE. HEIGHT FALLS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SFC/THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. THETA-E ADVECTION AND A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS (TEMPS IN
THE MID-UPPER 70S) WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
OVER THE SRN/SERN LOCAL AREA...AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH. THIS MAY
BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF SHOWERS FRI AFTERNOON FROM SRN VA TO THE
COAST. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI AFTERNOON. A SRN
STREAM SYSTEM LIFTING FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY-NRN MID
ATLANTIC REGION FRI NIGHT-SAT WILL DEVELOP A SFC LOW ALONG THE
BOUNDARY IN THE VIC OF THE OH VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES. SFC LOW
PROGGED TO LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT
MORNING...PUSHING THE COLD FRONT THRU THE LOCAL AREA LATE FRI
NIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ATTM APPEAR TO BE FRI
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE
INCREASED TO HIGH END CHANCE POPS. PRECIP EXITS THE COAST SAT
AFTERNOON (POSSIBLY QUICKER) AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. COOLER SAT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S-LOW 60S N TO MID-
UPPER 60S S. DRY SUN WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION. HIGHS SUN LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 50S ERN
SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. UNSETTLED WEATHER PROGGED TO RETURN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVE. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT...GUSTY SW WINDS (25-30 KT) ARE EXPECTED TIL AROUND
22-23Z.

A BRIEF -SHRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KSBY THIS EVE. DRY WX AND
VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED WED AND THU. GUSTY SW WINDS MAY AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
MNLY W WNDS STARTING OFF EARLY TDA...W/ SPEEDS AOB 10 KT. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NW TDY...RESULTING IN AN INCRS IN
SW FLOW OVR THE RGN BY THIS AFTERNOON. FLOW INCREASES TO 15-25 KT
OVER THE WATER. WAVES BUILD TO 2-3 FT AND SEAS 3-4 FT. ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATER TNGT W/ FLOW BECOMING NW POST
FRONTAL. BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
BEFORE LO LVL CAA SURGE KICKS IN. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT
LATE TNGT...CONT WED MRNG. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT LATE TNGT INTO
WEDS MRNG. SFC HI PRES LOCATES OVER THE WATER WEDS MRNG...ALLOWING
SCA CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE MIDDAY/AFTN. HI PRES SLIDES OFFSHORE
THURS AS S FLOW RETURNS THURS-FRI...AVGG 10-20 KT. COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE WATER LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE POST FRONTAL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO 20 TO 25% RANGE ACROSS VA AND
NORTHEAST NC WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER. AFTER COORDINATING
WITH THE NC AND VA FORESTRY OFFICIALS AND SURROUNDING NWS
OFFICES...WILL MAINTAIN AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT THRU 6
PM. CRITICAL RED FLAG CRITERIA MAY BE MET IN A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...10-HR DEAD FUEL MOISTURE VALUES
ARE STILL MARGINAL OR SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING THE NECESSARY THRESHOLD
OF 7%. ON THE EASTERN SHORE...A STATEMENT WILL NOT BE NECESSARY
DUE TO HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...BMD/MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...ALB/SAM
FIRE WEATHER...JDM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 311857
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
257 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST OHIO WILL TACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN RETURNS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATE MORNING SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NE
OHIO...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER FL. SKIES ARE MAINLY SKC ACRS THE
LOCAL AREA...HOWEVER LATEST SATELLITE REVEALS BKN/OVC CLOUD COVER
IN NORTHERN WV/PA/ERN OH..AND GIVEN A WNW FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT
SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AKQ CWA AFTER 18Z. DEW PTS REMAIN VERY LOW...SO PRECIP CHANCES
WILL GENLY BE CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN/NE SECTIONS OF THE CWA...FROM
ABOUT 20Z LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH 02Z THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE
HIGH-RES MODEL DATA DEPICTS MEASURABLE QPF ALL THE WAY INTO SRN
VA/NE NC...GIVEN HOW DRY IT WILL BE AND THAT CURRENT OBS SHOW
PRECIP FALLING ALONG/N OF THE SFC LOW TRACK...WILL FAVOR A DRIER
FORECAST CLOSE TO THAT DEPICTED BY THE 12Z NAM12.

RAISED HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST OVER MUCH
OF THE INTERIOR DUE TO DEEP MIXING...SLOWER ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND
CURRENT OBS. HIGHS RANGING FM THE MID 60S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE
TO THE LOWER-MID 70S MOST OTHER AREAS. BREEZY SW WINDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTN AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
WIND SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS MAINLY UP TO 25-35 MPH.
THE COMBINATION OF DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ENHANCE FIRE
DANGER DURING THE AFTN AND A STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED. SEE FIRE
WX SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.

CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASE LATE THIS AFTN/AFTER 20Z AND THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LO APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH QPF (UNDER A TENTH OF INCH) BUT POPS ARE NOW UP TO
60-70% OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING
WILL BE. CONDS DRY OUT QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON WED. A COOLER DAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S FOR INTERIOR VA/NE NC...AND IN THE MID-UPPER 50S CLOSER
TO THE COAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE WED
NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 MOST LOCATIONS. WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WEATHER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE WITHIN A
WARMING AIRMASS ESPECIALLY AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP BY THE
AFTN. MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S ONCE AGAIN
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRI-SAT...WITH A NOD TOWARD THE 30/12Z ECWMF.
BIGGEST CHANGES COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO IS PUSHING THE PRECIP BACK 6-
12 HRS...WITH THE FRONT NOW PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION FRI NIGHT-
SAT MORNING. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WRN ATLANTIC WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF
MEX AS WELL AS THE GULF STREAM. POTENT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE LOCATES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRI...WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATING OVER SERN CANADA. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT REACHES THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS LATE FRI...LIKELY STALLING AS UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT LAGS BEHIND. WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE SW FLOW IN TANDEM
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE REGION FRI...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE NRN
PIEDMONT TO THE MD ERN SHORE. HEIGHT FALLS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SFC/THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. THETA-E ADVECTION AND A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS (TEMPS IN
THE MID-UPPER 70S) WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
OVER THE SRN/SERN LOCAL AREA...AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH. THIS MAY
BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF SHOWERS FRI AFTERNOON FROM SRN VA TO THE
COAST. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI AFTERNOON. A SRN
STREAM SYSTEM LIFTING FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY-NRN MID
ATLANTIC REGION FRI NIGHT-SAT WILL DEVELOP A SFC LOW ALONG THE
BOUNDARY IN THE VIC OF THE OH VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES. SFC LOW
PROGGED TO LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT
MORNING...PUSHING THE COLD FRONT THRU THE LOCAL AREA LATE FRI
NIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ATTM APPEAR TO BE FRI
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE
INCREASED TO HIGH END CHANCE POPS. PRECIP EXITS THE COAST SAT
AFTERNOON (POSSIBLY QUICKER) AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. COOLER SAT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S-LOW 60S N TO MID-
UPPER 60S S. DRY SUN WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION. HIGHS SUN LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 50S ERN
SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. UNSETTLED WEATHER PROGGED TO RETURN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVE. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT...GUSTY SW WINDS (25-30 KT) ARE EXPECTED TIL AROUND
22-23Z.

A BRIEF -SHRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KSBY THIS EVE. DRY WX AND
VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED WED AND THU. GUSTY SW WINDS MAY AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
MNLY W WNDS STARTING OFF EARLY TDA...W/ SPEEDS AOB 10 KT. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NW TDY...RESULTING IN AN INCRS IN
SW FLOW OVR THE RGN BY THIS AFTERNOON. FLOW INCREASES TO 15-25 KT
OVER THE WATER. WAVES BUILD TO 2-3 FT AND SEAS 3-4 FT. ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATER TNGT W/ FLOW BECOMING NW POST
FRONTAL. BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
BEFORE LO LVL CAA SURGE KICKS IN. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT
LATE TNGT...CONT WED MRNG. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT LATE TNGT INTO
WEDS MRNG. SFC HI PRES LOCATES OVER THE WATER WEDS MRNG...ALLOWING
SCA CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE MIDDAY/AFTN. HI PRES SLIDES OFFSHORE
THURS AS S FLOW RETURNS THURS-FRI...AVGG 10-20 KT. COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE WATER LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE POST FRONTAL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO 20 TO 25% RANGE ACROSS VA AND
NORTHEAST NC WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER. AFTER COORDINATING
WITH THE NC AND VA FORESTRY OFFICIALS AND SURROUNDING NWS
OFFICES...WILL MAINTAIN AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT THRU 6
PM. CRITICAL RED FLAG CRITERIA MAY BE MET IN A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...10-HR DEAD FUEL MOISTURE VALUES
ARE STILL MARGINAL OR SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING THE NECESSARY THRESHOLD
OF 7%. ON THE EASTERN SHORE...A STATEMENT WILL NOT BE NECESSARY
DUE TO HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...BMD/MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...ALB/SAM
FIRE WEATHER...JDM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 311857
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
257 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST OHIO WILL TACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN RETURNS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATE MORNING SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NE
OHIO...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER FL. SKIES ARE MAINLY SKC ACRS THE
LOCAL AREA...HOWEVER LATEST SATELLITE REVEALS BKN/OVC CLOUD COVER
IN NORTHERN WV/PA/ERN OH..AND GIVEN A WNW FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT
SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AKQ CWA AFTER 18Z. DEW PTS REMAIN VERY LOW...SO PRECIP CHANCES
WILL GENLY BE CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN/NE SECTIONS OF THE CWA...FROM
ABOUT 20Z LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH 02Z THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE
HIGH-RES MODEL DATA DEPICTS MEASURABLE QPF ALL THE WAY INTO SRN
VA/NE NC...GIVEN HOW DRY IT WILL BE AND THAT CURRENT OBS SHOW
PRECIP FALLING ALONG/N OF THE SFC LOW TRACK...WILL FAVOR A DRIER
FORECAST CLOSE TO THAT DEPICTED BY THE 12Z NAM12.

RAISED HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST OVER MUCH
OF THE INTERIOR DUE TO DEEP MIXING...SLOWER ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND
CURRENT OBS. HIGHS RANGING FM THE MID 60S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE
TO THE LOWER-MID 70S MOST OTHER AREAS. BREEZY SW WINDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTN AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
WIND SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS MAINLY UP TO 25-35 MPH.
THE COMBINATION OF DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ENHANCE FIRE
DANGER DURING THE AFTN AND A STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED. SEE FIRE
WX SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.

CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASE LATE THIS AFTN/AFTER 20Z AND THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LO APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH QPF (UNDER A TENTH OF INCH) BUT POPS ARE NOW UP TO
60-70% OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING
WILL BE. CONDS DRY OUT QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON WED. A COOLER DAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S FOR INTERIOR VA/NE NC...AND IN THE MID-UPPER 50S CLOSER
TO THE COAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE WED
NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 MOST LOCATIONS. WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WEATHER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE WITHIN A
WARMING AIRMASS ESPECIALLY AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP BY THE
AFTN. MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S ONCE AGAIN
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRI-SAT...WITH A NOD TOWARD THE 30/12Z ECWMF.
BIGGEST CHANGES COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO IS PUSHING THE PRECIP BACK 6-
12 HRS...WITH THE FRONT NOW PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION FRI NIGHT-
SAT MORNING. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WRN ATLANTIC WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF
MEX AS WELL AS THE GULF STREAM. POTENT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE LOCATES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRI...WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATING OVER SERN CANADA. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT REACHES THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS LATE FRI...LIKELY STALLING AS UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT LAGS BEHIND. WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE SW FLOW IN TANDEM
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE REGION FRI...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE NRN
PIEDMONT TO THE MD ERN SHORE. HEIGHT FALLS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SFC/THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. THETA-E ADVECTION AND A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS (TEMPS IN
THE MID-UPPER 70S) WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
OVER THE SRN/SERN LOCAL AREA...AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH. THIS MAY
BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF SHOWERS FRI AFTERNOON FROM SRN VA TO THE
COAST. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI AFTERNOON. A SRN
STREAM SYSTEM LIFTING FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY-NRN MID
ATLANTIC REGION FRI NIGHT-SAT WILL DEVELOP A SFC LOW ALONG THE
BOUNDARY IN THE VIC OF THE OH VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES. SFC LOW
PROGGED TO LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT
MORNING...PUSHING THE COLD FRONT THRU THE LOCAL AREA LATE FRI
NIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ATTM APPEAR TO BE FRI
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE
INCREASED TO HIGH END CHANCE POPS. PRECIP EXITS THE COAST SAT
AFTERNOON (POSSIBLY QUICKER) AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. COOLER SAT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S-LOW 60S N TO MID-
UPPER 60S S. DRY SUN WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION. HIGHS SUN LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 50S ERN
SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. UNSETTLED WEATHER PROGGED TO RETURN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVE. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT...GUSTY SW WINDS (25-30 KT) ARE EXPECTED TIL AROUND
22-23Z.

A BRIEF -SHRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KSBY THIS EVE. DRY WX AND
VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED WED AND THU. GUSTY SW WINDS MAY AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
MNLY W WNDS STARTING OFF EARLY TDA...W/ SPEEDS AOB 10 KT. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NW TDY...RESULTING IN AN INCRS IN
SW FLOW OVR THE RGN BY THIS AFTERNOON. FLOW INCREASES TO 15-25 KT
OVER THE WATER. WAVES BUILD TO 2-3 FT AND SEAS 3-4 FT. ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATER TNGT W/ FLOW BECOMING NW POST
FRONTAL. BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
BEFORE LO LVL CAA SURGE KICKS IN. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT
LATE TNGT...CONT WED MRNG. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT LATE TNGT INTO
WEDS MRNG. SFC HI PRES LOCATES OVER THE WATER WEDS MRNG...ALLOWING
SCA CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE MIDDAY/AFTN. HI PRES SLIDES OFFSHORE
THURS AS S FLOW RETURNS THURS-FRI...AVGG 10-20 KT. COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE WATER LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE POST FRONTAL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO 20 TO 25% RANGE ACROSS VA AND
NORTHEAST NC WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER. AFTER COORDINATING
WITH THE NC AND VA FORESTRY OFFICIALS AND SURROUNDING NWS
OFFICES...WILL MAINTAIN AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT THRU 6
PM. CRITICAL RED FLAG CRITERIA MAY BE MET IN A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...10-HR DEAD FUEL MOISTURE VALUES
ARE STILL MARGINAL OR SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING THE NECESSARY THRESHOLD
OF 7%. ON THE EASTERN SHORE...A STATEMENT WILL NOT BE NECESSARY
DUE TO HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...BMD/MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...ALB/SAM
FIRE WEATHER...JDM




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 311846
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
246 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES A MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEDNESDAY.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE THURSDAY...BEFORE A WET WEATHER SYSTEM
CLOSES OUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW DROPPING ACROSS WESTERN PA INTO THE APPALACHIANS
CURRENTLY...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY RECENTLY PASSING THROUGH PIT.
STEADIER PRECIP HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST...BUT SOME SCATTERED
POST-FRONTAL SHRA ARE FIRING IN MODEST INSTABILITY. EXPECT THESE
TO PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. KEPT THE THUNDER CHANCES GOING IN THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE
SUNSET...WHERE MORE SUN HAS BEEN SEEN TODAY. ONLY EXPECT A FEW
LINGERING SHRA AROUND 00Z IN THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE ENDING DURING
THE EVENING. 25-35 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH DURING THAT TIME
AS WELL.

BAND OF POST-FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL SWING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING
AS WELL. A SHORT PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS. THEN...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY IN
MICHIGAN YOOPER COUNTRY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND
12Z. EXPECT THIS TO MANIFEST MAINLY IN THE FORM OF REINFORCED
CLOUD COVER...BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH JUICE TO GET A FEW
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80 BY SUNRISE.

PREVIOUS LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS AT THE LOWER END OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. CONSIDERING THE WIND AND EXPECTED
CLOUDS...RAISED TEMPERATURES MORE TOWARDS THE MEAN OF THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A PASSING RAIN SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING...BUT ALL PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT. A
NEW WRINKLE TO THE FORECAST LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IS A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT SHOULD TRACK NORTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH.
MODELS WERE NOT PICKING UP ON THIS FEATURE 24 HOURS AGO...BUT THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING PRECIPITATION ACROSS CANADA. DID NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD ANY SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST...AS
ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD DROP BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT...BUT HAVE BUMPED
UP CLOUD COVER LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SKIES SHOULD
THEN CLEAR UP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE CLEAR
SKIES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION. STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH
THURSDAY...BUT WILL ALSO RAISE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S AND 70S.
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE DAY...AND HAVE
ALSO ADDED THUNDER TO THE FORECAST AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DECENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
FRONT SAGS ACROSS THE REGION AND PROVIDES FOCUS FOR SUBSEQUENT LOW
PRESSURE PASSAGE LATER ON FRIDAY...WITH AN EASTWARD EXIT ON
SATURDAY. CHANGES INCLUDE A UPWARD POP ADJUSTMENT TO CATEGORICAL
NUMBERS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...AND FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY.

A DRYING TREND IS INDICATED FOR THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. THE COOL DOWN
WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT THOUGH AS FLAT RIDGING IS ECMWF AND GFS
PROGGED TO BUILD AND MODERATE TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FKL/DUJ REMAIN AT IFR/LIFR IN THE COLDER AIRMASS. EXPECT SOME
IMPROVEMENT BY 21Z OR THEREAFTER AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE
NORTH. SOME SCATTERED SHRA ARE ALSO OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
NEAR LBE/MGW BEFORE 00Z...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF.
OTHER SITES AT VFR CURRENTLY...BUT EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING IN POST-FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS IN
COLD ADVECTION PATTERN. CIGS WILL THEN LIFT BACK TO MVFR DURING
THE NIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF MAINLY SCT CLOUD COVERAGE.
HOWEVER...WEAK SYSTEM DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SHOULD
REESTABLISH SOME CLOUD COVER ACROSS WESTERN PA/NORTHERN WV AFTER
10Z. EXPECTING CIGS TO REMAIN VFR AT THIS TIME...WITH POSSIBLY A
FEW ISOLATED SHSN.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THE CROSSING OF LOW PRESSURE ON
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 311846
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
246 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES A MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEDNESDAY.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE THURSDAY...BEFORE A WET WEATHER SYSTEM
CLOSES OUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW DROPPING ACROSS WESTERN PA INTO THE APPALACHIANS
CURRENTLY...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY RECENTLY PASSING THROUGH PIT.
STEADIER PRECIP HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST...BUT SOME SCATTERED
POST-FRONTAL SHRA ARE FIRING IN MODEST INSTABILITY. EXPECT THESE
TO PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. KEPT THE THUNDER CHANCES GOING IN THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE
SUNSET...WHERE MORE SUN HAS BEEN SEEN TODAY. ONLY EXPECT A FEW
LINGERING SHRA AROUND 00Z IN THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE ENDING DURING
THE EVENING. 25-35 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH DURING THAT TIME
AS WELL.

BAND OF POST-FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL SWING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING
AS WELL. A SHORT PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS. THEN...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY IN
MICHIGAN YOOPER COUNTRY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND
12Z. EXPECT THIS TO MANIFEST MAINLY IN THE FORM OF REINFORCED
CLOUD COVER...BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH JUICE TO GET A FEW
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80 BY SUNRISE.

PREVIOUS LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS AT THE LOWER END OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. CONSIDERING THE WIND AND EXPECTED
CLOUDS...RAISED TEMPERATURES MORE TOWARDS THE MEAN OF THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A PASSING RAIN SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING...BUT ALL PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT. A
NEW WRINKLE TO THE FORECAST LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IS A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT SHOULD TRACK NORTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH.
MODELS WERE NOT PICKING UP ON THIS FEATURE 24 HOURS AGO...BUT THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING PRECIPITATION ACROSS CANADA. DID NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD ANY SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST...AS
ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD DROP BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT...BUT HAVE BUMPED
UP CLOUD COVER LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SKIES SHOULD
THEN CLEAR UP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE CLEAR
SKIES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION. STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH
THURSDAY...BUT WILL ALSO RAISE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S AND 70S.
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE DAY...AND HAVE
ALSO ADDED THUNDER TO THE FORECAST AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DECENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
FRONT SAGS ACROSS THE REGION AND PROVIDES FOCUS FOR SUBSEQUENT LOW
PRESSURE PASSAGE LATER ON FRIDAY...WITH AN EASTWARD EXIT ON
SATURDAY. CHANGES INCLUDE A UPWARD POP ADJUSTMENT TO CATEGORICAL
NUMBERS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...AND FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY.

A DRYING TREND IS INDICATED FOR THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. THE COOL DOWN
WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT THOUGH AS FLAT RIDGING IS ECMWF AND GFS
PROGGED TO BUILD AND MODERATE TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FKL/DUJ REMAIN AT IFR/LIFR IN THE COLDER AIRMASS. EXPECT SOME
IMPROVEMENT BY 21Z OR THEREAFTER AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE
NORTH. SOME SCATTERED SHRA ARE ALSO OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
NEAR LBE/MGW BEFORE 00Z...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF.
OTHER SITES AT VFR CURRENTLY...BUT EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING IN POST-FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS IN
COLD ADVECTION PATTERN. CIGS WILL THEN LIFT BACK TO MVFR DURING
THE NIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF MAINLY SCT CLOUD COVERAGE.
HOWEVER...WEAK SYSTEM DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SHOULD
REESTABLISH SOME CLOUD COVER ACROSS WESTERN PA/NORTHERN WV AFTER
10Z. EXPECTING CIGS TO REMAIN VFR AT THIS TIME...WITH POSSIBLY A
FEW ISOLATED SHSN.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THE CROSSING OF LOW PRESSURE ON
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 311640
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1240 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, CROSSING OUR AREA LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE QUICKLY
SHIFTING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY, WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN NEARBY FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1230 PM UPDATE...ALTHOUGH AN INITIAL BAND OF TRACE FLURRIES AND
SPRINKLES HAVE MOVED INTO THE NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA, THE MAIN
BAND OF STEADY PRECIP HAS BEEN SLOWER TO PROGRESS EAST THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ALSO, WITH THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP,
TEMPERATURES ARE WELL ABOVE GUIDANCE, WITH MOST LOCATIONS (OUTSIDE
OF THE POCONOS) RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S...INCLUDING
SUSSEX COUNTY NJ. THEREFORE EVEN THOUGH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IN NW NJ, ESPECIALLY IF THEY SEE HIGHER
SNOW RATES WITH A MESOSCALE BAND, THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD HINDER
ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION, SO HAVE CANCELLED THE ADVISORY
THERE. THE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE POCONOS.

9:30 AM UPDATE: WITH THIS UPDATE MADE SOME CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR
A PRETTY QUICK RISE IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH DECENT
WAA SOUTH OF THE CLIPPER TRACK. ALSO WITH THE WAA, THE NAM AND
HRRR ARE SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY IN THE FORM OF STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND CAPE BETWEEN 200-500 J/KG ACROSS THE DELMARVA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS COULD BE THE TRIGGER FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO, SO
HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE GRIDS SOUTH OF ILG. SNOW PART OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS MAINLY ON TRACK WITH THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO
SNOW OCCURRING EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE POCONOS AND THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN SUSSEX NJ. LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN TRIMMED
BACK IN MORRIS NJ AND FOR THE LEHIGH VALLEY/READING. TEMPERATURES
IN THESE AREAS ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 30`S AND LOW 40`S WITH 1-2
OF ADDITIONAL WARMING BEFORE PRECIPITATION STARTS. WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20-25 MPH COUPLED WITH RH VALUES AROUND 35% ARE FORECASTED
IN THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA FOR A FEW HOURS, WITH RAIN IN THE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON DO NOT SEE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ATTM.



8:00 AM: FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SUSSEX NJ AND THE POCONOS TODAY WITH A
PERIOD OF RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX ELSEWHERE. SLOWED THE INCREASE OF
CLOUDS SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH. THE PRECIPITATION
ONSET TIME MAY NEED TO BE PUSHED BACK BY 1-2 HOURS AS WELL BASED
ON THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR RUNS. ATTM DID NOT MAKE THIS
ADJUSTMENT WITH THE POSSIBILITY STILL PRESENT OF RAIN/ MIX
ENTERING THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA BY 16-17Z. IN THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ, THE PRECIPITATION MAY START AS A MIX BEFORE CHANGING TO
SNOW WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING OCCURRING.


PREVIOUS: THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED A LITTLE WEAK WITH THE
APPROACHING TROF AND MAYBE WHY ITS TIMING IS THE FASTEST. ITS
SLIGHTLY WARMER AT 925MB UPSTREAM THAN THE MODELS THINK. OVERALL
THE MODELS ARE MUCH CLOSER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY, BUT THERE
REMAINS DIFFERENCES AS TO THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF HEAVIER PCPN.
THEY HAVE TRENDED COLDER AND OVERALL WETTER. MODEL PREDICTED PWATS
HOWEVER ARE AROUND HALF AN INCH AND GIVEN THIS IS ABOUT A 6 TO 12
HR EVENT, BELIEVE QPF ABOVE HALF AN INCH ARE TOO ROBUST UNLESS A
FGEN BAND CONCENTRATES IN A NARROW AREA FOR A PROTRACTED PERIOD.
OUR FORECAST SOLUTION IS CLOSEST TO A COMBINATION OF THE UKMET`S
QPF FIELD, GFS PATH (COUPLE OF HOURS SLOWER) AND WRF-NMM`S BETTER
LLVL THERMALS AND SFC TEMPS FOR THE NORTHERN SNOWIER AREAS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR THREE NORTHERN COUNTIES.

IF THIS WAS NIGHTTIME THIS WOULD BE MORE OF A CONFIDENT SNOWFALL
FCST, BUT GIVEN THIS IS A TIMING REPEAT OF MARCH 20TH, THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH SNOW CAN ACCUMULATE. MARCH 20TH SHOWED
INTENSITY CAN TRUMP THE LATE MARCH SUN. THE HOURLY RATES
AT PEAK TIME DURING THIS AFTERNOON IS NEARING .1 WATER EQUIVALENT
PER HOUR. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO START ACCUMULATING.
BUT THIS OVERALL WINDOW IS SMALLER THAN THAT PREVIOUS EVENT.
ALSO THE INITIAL BOUNDARY LAYER CAN WARM THIS MORNING AND THIS
WILL PROLONG THE CHANGE TO SNOW AT LOWER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS AND WESTERN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ
IT WILL BE PRETTY MUCH COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.
THE UNCERTAINTY IS TO WILL  THE HEAVIER PCPN REACH THAT FAR
NORTH. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS YES, BUT THERE IS NOT UNIFORMITY.
THE GFS DIAGS DO SHOW FGEN BANDING IN THAT AREA, BUT THE EXIT REGION
OF THE 250MB JET AND BEST MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE IS A BIT FTHR
TO THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE A 45 KT LLJ FEEDING ACROSS THIS
BOUNDARY AND THERE IS A BROAD 200MB OF LIFT PREDICTED AT 290K
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON.

HERE GOES, PCPN MOVES IN NORTH LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THE REST OF OUR CWA. THE
SOUNDINGS ARE DRY ABOVE THE SFC AND EVAP COOLING SHOULD CHANGE ANY
BRIEF START OF RAIN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS TO SNOW.
ELSEWHERE ITS THE LESS EFFICIENT DYNAMIC COOLING THAT IS EXPECTED TO
DO THE TRICK. OBVIOUSLY ELEVATION HELPS AS THE GFS PREDICTED
FREEZING LEVEL AT ABE DROPPING TO 800 FEET SHOWS. ALL THE MODELS
LOWER SFC TEMPS AND WBZS TO AROUND FREEZING IN THE POCONOS, BUT
STRUGGLE ELSEWHERE. SO THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY FARTHER EAST
IN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ. THE NEXT TIER SOUTHWARD, THERE COULD BE SOME
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS THAT DO GET A COUPLE OF INCHES, NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS THE ADVISORY AREA  WE BELIEVE. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH
IF THE FGEN BANDING ESTABLISHES ITSELF IN THIS LOCATION LATER
TODAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY.
WE WILL KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO.

TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO PROBLEMATICAL AS THE GFS LOWER TEMPS ARE
BANKING ON A FASTER PCPN ARRIVAL TIME. GIVE ITS ARRIVAL
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND NAM MOS MAY BE RIGHT FOR THE WRONG
REASON. WE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE DATASETS.

06Z MODELS PRETTY MUCH HELD THEIR OWN. E.G. ABE FREEZING LEVEL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT 800 TO 900 FEET. 06Z MODEL QPF VERIFICATION
GEOGRAPHICALLY WAS GOOD WITH THE GFS AND NAM A BIT WET. GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE OP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
OPTING FOR THE SLOWER MODEL TIMING, WE CARRIED PCPN INTO THIS
EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN NJ. EVENT SHOULD BE DONE BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT.
THE PREDICTED VORT MAX OVERNIGHT BECOMES QUITE CHANNELIZED AND
MODELS PREDICTED MOISTURE OVERALL MEAGER. WE CLEARED SKIES OVERNIGHT.
WE OPTED FOR A STAT GUIDANCE COMPROMISE FOR MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS AN ACTIVE ONE BUT ALSO COMPRISED OF A
FAST FLOW REGIME. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO
START WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT EAST WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN THURSDAY AS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WILL HELP TO AMPLIFY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY, THEN INTO THE EAST SATURDAY. IT APPEARS
THIS TROUGH REMAINS THROUGH MONDAY, ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD START TO
RETREAT NORTHWARD WITH TIME. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN INCORPORATED THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE IN WITH
CONTINUITY THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST
TO PIVOT ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. A SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE
OF THIS TROUGH MAY HAVE SOME SHOWERS WITH IT TO OUR NORTHWEST,
HOWEVER IT MAY END UP DAMPENING OUT AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST AND EAST.
THEREFORE, WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. SOME CAA AT LEAST
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL RESULT IN A COOLER DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN FLOW. AS THIS OCCURS, WAA WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
APPROACHING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, A NOTABLE INCREASE
IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY /ALTHOUGH PROBABLY
COOLER ALONG THE COAST DUE TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE COLDER
OCEAN/. IT APPEARS THAT A LEAD SHORT WAVE GENERATES SOME SHOWERS
WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND THESE MAY START TO
MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT IT
WILL TAKE AWHILE FARTHER EAST THEREFORE WE SLOWED DOWN THE POP
INCREASE AT NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. IN ADDITION, THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SHOW A DEEPENING MOIST PROFILE AS A LOW-LEVEL
JET INCREASES THE THETA-E ADVECTION. THIS RESULTS IN A DECREASE IN
THE SHOWALTER VALUES, HOWEVER NO REAL INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE
PRESENT. AS A RESULT THERE IS A QUESTION WHETHER OR NOT CHARGE
SEPARATION CAN TAKE PLACE AND THEREFORE WE REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHC OF
THUNDER ATTM. AS MIXING INCREASES THURSDAY, A BREEZY AFTERNOON
SHOULD RESULT.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AND THIS COMBINED WITH LARGE
SCALE LIFT FROM THE INCOMING COLD FRONT, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN SHOWERS OR EVEN BANDS OF SHOWERS.
IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED, SOME THUNDER COULD OCCUR ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY AND
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST DATABASE. LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD BE TRACKING TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT,
PULLING THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST EARLY SATURDAY. AS SOME ENERGY
ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE FIRST ONE SHOULD
DELAY THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS OUR AREA AND THEN THE SECOND
ONE TRACKS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS OUR
AREA EARLY SATURDAY. THE TIMING AND POSITIONING OF THE COLD FRONT
FRIDAY WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER OUR ENTIRE CWA SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR. WE THEN KEPT LOW CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS IN
FOR SATURDAY THEN DRYING OVERTAKES THE AREA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO DROP INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING, HOWEVER THIS LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN SLIDES TO OUR EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, ALTHOUGH THE
TAILEND OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MAY REMAIN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW, KEPT THIS TIMEFRAME
DRY WITH MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 12Z TAFS STILL BRING ALL OF OUR SITES TO LOW MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
THE WIND DIRECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THIS MORNING A MID LEVEL CIG ARRIVING, SOME RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT
KABE AND KRDG. SOUTH TO SOUTH WEST WINDS AVERAGING 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

THIS AFTERNOON AT KABE AND KRDG CIGS AND VSBYS LOWERING TO IFR.
RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW LATE. ESP KABE. TARMAC ACCUMS
NOT EXPECTED. LOCAL KPHL AIRPORTS RAIN ARRIVES AND CIGS AND VSBYS
LOWERING TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. KMIV AND
KACY SIMILAR EVOLUTION, BUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE TRICKY AS IT DEPENDS UPON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
WE ARE EXPECTING IT TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF ALL THE TERMINALS
ACROSS DELMARVA. THERE WILL BE A SLOW BACKING OF THE WINDS FROM
SOUTH TO NORTHEAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SPEEDS SHOULD BE
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

THIS EVENING, CONDITIONS BOTTOMING EAST OT IFR EARLY AND THEN
IMPROVING CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE EVENING. PCPN SHOULD END BY
04Z ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TOWARD THE NORTH
AND THEN NORTHWEST WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, BUT SOME
GUSTINESS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS FROM THE KPHL AIRPORTS
SOUTHEASTWARD.

OVERNIGHT IMPROVING CONDITIONS CONTINUING WITH A VFR CIG BECOMING
CLEAR AND NORTHWEST WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR OVERALL. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD
OCCUR LATE THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS LURKING NOT
TO FAR TO OUR WEST LATE AT NIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY
DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE, THEN A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SOME GUSTINESS DURING THURSDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS. A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY. POTENTIALLY GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FRIDAY, SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD END
SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR. THERE IS
LOWER CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
RIGHT NOW CONDITIONS ARE BELOW SCA CRITERIA ON THE OCEAN. HOWEVER
BOTH SEAS AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOME THIS AFTERNOON.
WE WILL KEEP THE SCA UP FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WIND GUSTS AROUND 25
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND LOCALIZED SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET.

THE ADVISORY IS NOT IN EFFECT FOR DELAWARE BAY, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD
BE A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATER TONIGHT WITH
THE DOWN THE BAY FLOW. WE WILL REACCESS THE BAY LATER TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BUT THEN BEGINS TO
SHIFT OFFSHORE AT NIGHT. AS A RESULT, THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DECREASE AND BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A MUCH WARMER
AIRMASS HOWEVER WILL BE MOVING OVER THE COLDER WATERS, AND THIS WILL
LIMIT THE MIXING. AS A RESULT, THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL PROBABLY BE
CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BUILD THE
SEAS AND THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED. THE
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IS PROBABLY OVERDONE SOME WITH THE SEAS AS THE
GFS IS A BIT TO STRONG WITH THE SURFACE WINDS, THEREFORE WE STAYED
CLOSER TO CONTINUITY WHICH HAD THIS FACTORED IN.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR AREA WITH A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST, AND THE WINDS COULD BE A BIT GUSTY AS SOME COOLING
TAKES PLACE. THE SEAS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN, BUT
TENDING TO SUBSIDE WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GIGI/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GIGI/GORSE
MARINE...GIGI/GORSE




000
FXUS61 KPHI 311640
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1240 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, CROSSING OUR AREA LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE QUICKLY
SHIFTING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY, WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN NEARBY FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1230 PM UPDATE...ALTHOUGH AN INITIAL BAND OF TRACE FLURRIES AND
SPRINKLES HAVE MOVED INTO THE NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA, THE MAIN
BAND OF STEADY PRECIP HAS BEEN SLOWER TO PROGRESS EAST THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ALSO, WITH THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP,
TEMPERATURES ARE WELL ABOVE GUIDANCE, WITH MOST LOCATIONS (OUTSIDE
OF THE POCONOS) RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S...INCLUDING
SUSSEX COUNTY NJ. THEREFORE EVEN THOUGH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IN NW NJ, ESPECIALLY IF THEY SEE HIGHER
SNOW RATES WITH A MESOSCALE BAND, THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD HINDER
ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION, SO HAVE CANCELLED THE ADVISORY
THERE. THE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE POCONOS.

9:30 AM UPDATE: WITH THIS UPDATE MADE SOME CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR
A PRETTY QUICK RISE IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH DECENT
WAA SOUTH OF THE CLIPPER TRACK. ALSO WITH THE WAA, THE NAM AND
HRRR ARE SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY IN THE FORM OF STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND CAPE BETWEEN 200-500 J/KG ACROSS THE DELMARVA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS COULD BE THE TRIGGER FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO, SO
HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE GRIDS SOUTH OF ILG. SNOW PART OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS MAINLY ON TRACK WITH THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO
SNOW OCCURRING EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE POCONOS AND THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN SUSSEX NJ. LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN TRIMMED
BACK IN MORRIS NJ AND FOR THE LEHIGH VALLEY/READING. TEMPERATURES
IN THESE AREAS ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 30`S AND LOW 40`S WITH 1-2
OF ADDITIONAL WARMING BEFORE PRECIPITATION STARTS. WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20-25 MPH COUPLED WITH RH VALUES AROUND 35% ARE FORECASTED
IN THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA FOR A FEW HOURS, WITH RAIN IN THE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON DO NOT SEE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ATTM.



8:00 AM: FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SUSSEX NJ AND THE POCONOS TODAY WITH A
PERIOD OF RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX ELSEWHERE. SLOWED THE INCREASE OF
CLOUDS SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH. THE PRECIPITATION
ONSET TIME MAY NEED TO BE PUSHED BACK BY 1-2 HOURS AS WELL BASED
ON THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR RUNS. ATTM DID NOT MAKE THIS
ADJUSTMENT WITH THE POSSIBILITY STILL PRESENT OF RAIN/ MIX
ENTERING THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA BY 16-17Z. IN THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ, THE PRECIPITATION MAY START AS A MIX BEFORE CHANGING TO
SNOW WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING OCCURRING.


PREVIOUS: THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED A LITTLE WEAK WITH THE
APPROACHING TROF AND MAYBE WHY ITS TIMING IS THE FASTEST. ITS
SLIGHTLY WARMER AT 925MB UPSTREAM THAN THE MODELS THINK. OVERALL
THE MODELS ARE MUCH CLOSER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY, BUT THERE
REMAINS DIFFERENCES AS TO THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF HEAVIER PCPN.
THEY HAVE TRENDED COLDER AND OVERALL WETTER. MODEL PREDICTED PWATS
HOWEVER ARE AROUND HALF AN INCH AND GIVEN THIS IS ABOUT A 6 TO 12
HR EVENT, BELIEVE QPF ABOVE HALF AN INCH ARE TOO ROBUST UNLESS A
FGEN BAND CONCENTRATES IN A NARROW AREA FOR A PROTRACTED PERIOD.
OUR FORECAST SOLUTION IS CLOSEST TO A COMBINATION OF THE UKMET`S
QPF FIELD, GFS PATH (COUPLE OF HOURS SLOWER) AND WRF-NMM`S BETTER
LLVL THERMALS AND SFC TEMPS FOR THE NORTHERN SNOWIER AREAS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR THREE NORTHERN COUNTIES.

IF THIS WAS NIGHTTIME THIS WOULD BE MORE OF A CONFIDENT SNOWFALL
FCST, BUT GIVEN THIS IS A TIMING REPEAT OF MARCH 20TH, THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH SNOW CAN ACCUMULATE. MARCH 20TH SHOWED
INTENSITY CAN TRUMP THE LATE MARCH SUN. THE HOURLY RATES
AT PEAK TIME DURING THIS AFTERNOON IS NEARING .1 WATER EQUIVALENT
PER HOUR. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO START ACCUMULATING.
BUT THIS OVERALL WINDOW IS SMALLER THAN THAT PREVIOUS EVENT.
ALSO THE INITIAL BOUNDARY LAYER CAN WARM THIS MORNING AND THIS
WILL PROLONG THE CHANGE TO SNOW AT LOWER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS AND WESTERN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ
IT WILL BE PRETTY MUCH COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.
THE UNCERTAINTY IS TO WILL  THE HEAVIER PCPN REACH THAT FAR
NORTH. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS YES, BUT THERE IS NOT UNIFORMITY.
THE GFS DIAGS DO SHOW FGEN BANDING IN THAT AREA, BUT THE EXIT REGION
OF THE 250MB JET AND BEST MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE IS A BIT FTHR
TO THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE A 45 KT LLJ FEEDING ACROSS THIS
BOUNDARY AND THERE IS A BROAD 200MB OF LIFT PREDICTED AT 290K
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON.

HERE GOES, PCPN MOVES IN NORTH LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THE REST OF OUR CWA. THE
SOUNDINGS ARE DRY ABOVE THE SFC AND EVAP COOLING SHOULD CHANGE ANY
BRIEF START OF RAIN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS TO SNOW.
ELSEWHERE ITS THE LESS EFFICIENT DYNAMIC COOLING THAT IS EXPECTED TO
DO THE TRICK. OBVIOUSLY ELEVATION HELPS AS THE GFS PREDICTED
FREEZING LEVEL AT ABE DROPPING TO 800 FEET SHOWS. ALL THE MODELS
LOWER SFC TEMPS AND WBZS TO AROUND FREEZING IN THE POCONOS, BUT
STRUGGLE ELSEWHERE. SO THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY FARTHER EAST
IN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ. THE NEXT TIER SOUTHWARD, THERE COULD BE SOME
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS THAT DO GET A COUPLE OF INCHES, NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS THE ADVISORY AREA  WE BELIEVE. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH
IF THE FGEN BANDING ESTABLISHES ITSELF IN THIS LOCATION LATER
TODAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY.
WE WILL KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO.

TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO PROBLEMATICAL AS THE GFS LOWER TEMPS ARE
BANKING ON A FASTER PCPN ARRIVAL TIME. GIVE ITS ARRIVAL
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND NAM MOS MAY BE RIGHT FOR THE WRONG
REASON. WE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE DATASETS.

06Z MODELS PRETTY MUCH HELD THEIR OWN. E.G. ABE FREEZING LEVEL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT 800 TO 900 FEET. 06Z MODEL QPF VERIFICATION
GEOGRAPHICALLY WAS GOOD WITH THE GFS AND NAM A BIT WET. GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE OP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
OPTING FOR THE SLOWER MODEL TIMING, WE CARRIED PCPN INTO THIS
EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN NJ. EVENT SHOULD BE DONE BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT.
THE PREDICTED VORT MAX OVERNIGHT BECOMES QUITE CHANNELIZED AND
MODELS PREDICTED MOISTURE OVERALL MEAGER. WE CLEARED SKIES OVERNIGHT.
WE OPTED FOR A STAT GUIDANCE COMPROMISE FOR MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS AN ACTIVE ONE BUT ALSO COMPRISED OF A
FAST FLOW REGIME. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO
START WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT EAST WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN THURSDAY AS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WILL HELP TO AMPLIFY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY, THEN INTO THE EAST SATURDAY. IT APPEARS
THIS TROUGH REMAINS THROUGH MONDAY, ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD START TO
RETREAT NORTHWARD WITH TIME. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN INCORPORATED THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE IN WITH
CONTINUITY THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST
TO PIVOT ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. A SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE
OF THIS TROUGH MAY HAVE SOME SHOWERS WITH IT TO OUR NORTHWEST,
HOWEVER IT MAY END UP DAMPENING OUT AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST AND EAST.
THEREFORE, WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. SOME CAA AT LEAST
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL RESULT IN A COOLER DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN FLOW. AS THIS OCCURS, WAA WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
APPROACHING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, A NOTABLE INCREASE
IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY /ALTHOUGH PROBABLY
COOLER ALONG THE COAST DUE TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE COLDER
OCEAN/. IT APPEARS THAT A LEAD SHORT WAVE GENERATES SOME SHOWERS
WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND THESE MAY START TO
MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT IT
WILL TAKE AWHILE FARTHER EAST THEREFORE WE SLOWED DOWN THE POP
INCREASE AT NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. IN ADDITION, THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SHOW A DEEPENING MOIST PROFILE AS A LOW-LEVEL
JET INCREASES THE THETA-E ADVECTION. THIS RESULTS IN A DECREASE IN
THE SHOWALTER VALUES, HOWEVER NO REAL INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE
PRESENT. AS A RESULT THERE IS A QUESTION WHETHER OR NOT CHARGE
SEPARATION CAN TAKE PLACE AND THEREFORE WE REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHC OF
THUNDER ATTM. AS MIXING INCREASES THURSDAY, A BREEZY AFTERNOON
SHOULD RESULT.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AND THIS COMBINED WITH LARGE
SCALE LIFT FROM THE INCOMING COLD FRONT, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN SHOWERS OR EVEN BANDS OF SHOWERS.
IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED, SOME THUNDER COULD OCCUR ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY AND
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST DATABASE. LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD BE TRACKING TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT,
PULLING THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST EARLY SATURDAY. AS SOME ENERGY
ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE FIRST ONE SHOULD
DELAY THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS OUR AREA AND THEN THE SECOND
ONE TRACKS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS OUR
AREA EARLY SATURDAY. THE TIMING AND POSITIONING OF THE COLD FRONT
FRIDAY WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER OUR ENTIRE CWA SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR. WE THEN KEPT LOW CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS IN
FOR SATURDAY THEN DRYING OVERTAKES THE AREA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO DROP INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING, HOWEVER THIS LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN SLIDES TO OUR EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, ALTHOUGH THE
TAILEND OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MAY REMAIN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW, KEPT THIS TIMEFRAME
DRY WITH MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 12Z TAFS STILL BRING ALL OF OUR SITES TO LOW MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
THE WIND DIRECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THIS MORNING A MID LEVEL CIG ARRIVING, SOME RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT
KABE AND KRDG. SOUTH TO SOUTH WEST WINDS AVERAGING 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

THIS AFTERNOON AT KABE AND KRDG CIGS AND VSBYS LOWERING TO IFR.
RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW LATE. ESP KABE. TARMAC ACCUMS
NOT EXPECTED. LOCAL KPHL AIRPORTS RAIN ARRIVES AND CIGS AND VSBYS
LOWERING TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. KMIV AND
KACY SIMILAR EVOLUTION, BUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE TRICKY AS IT DEPENDS UPON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
WE ARE EXPECTING IT TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF ALL THE TERMINALS
ACROSS DELMARVA. THERE WILL BE A SLOW BACKING OF THE WINDS FROM
SOUTH TO NORTHEAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SPEEDS SHOULD BE
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

THIS EVENING, CONDITIONS BOTTOMING EAST OT IFR EARLY AND THEN
IMPROVING CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE EVENING. PCPN SHOULD END BY
04Z ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TOWARD THE NORTH
AND THEN NORTHWEST WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, BUT SOME
GUSTINESS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS FROM THE KPHL AIRPORTS
SOUTHEASTWARD.

OVERNIGHT IMPROVING CONDITIONS CONTINUING WITH A VFR CIG BECOMING
CLEAR AND NORTHWEST WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR OVERALL. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD
OCCUR LATE THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS LURKING NOT
TO FAR TO OUR WEST LATE AT NIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY
DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE, THEN A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SOME GUSTINESS DURING THURSDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS. A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY. POTENTIALLY GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FRIDAY, SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD END
SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR. THERE IS
LOWER CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
RIGHT NOW CONDITIONS ARE BELOW SCA CRITERIA ON THE OCEAN. HOWEVER
BOTH SEAS AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOME THIS AFTERNOON.
WE WILL KEEP THE SCA UP FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WIND GUSTS AROUND 25
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND LOCALIZED SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET.

THE ADVISORY IS NOT IN EFFECT FOR DELAWARE BAY, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD
BE A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATER TONIGHT WITH
THE DOWN THE BAY FLOW. WE WILL REACCESS THE BAY LATER TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BUT THEN BEGINS TO
SHIFT OFFSHORE AT NIGHT. AS A RESULT, THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DECREASE AND BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A MUCH WARMER
AIRMASS HOWEVER WILL BE MOVING OVER THE COLDER WATERS, AND THIS WILL
LIMIT THE MIXING. AS A RESULT, THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL PROBABLY BE
CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BUILD THE
SEAS AND THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED. THE
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IS PROBABLY OVERDONE SOME WITH THE SEAS AS THE
GFS IS A BIT TO STRONG WITH THE SURFACE WINDS, THEREFORE WE STAYED
CLOSER TO CONTINUITY WHICH HAD THIS FACTORED IN.