Home > Products > State Listing > Maryland Data
Latest:
 AFDPBZ |  AFDLWX |  AFDPHI |  AFDAKQ |
  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPHI 240616
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
216 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD, REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATER
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD
TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY AND SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, EVENTUALLY
MOVING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO LIFT TO OUR NORTH MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT REACHING OUR AREA LATER
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA TONIGHT, PASSING WELL TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

JUST A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE POCONOS. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT THE REGION TO BE DRY OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO
MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD DURING THE NIGHT WITH SOME BREAKS POSSIBLE OVER
DELMARVA AND FAR SOUTHERN NJ.

THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CLOSE WITH TONIGHT`S MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. READINGS SHOULD FALL MAINLY INTO THE 40S WITH
A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
THE DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY. GRADUAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, SOME THIN CIRRUS FROM
THE WEST MAY OVERSPREAD OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST
TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH.

THE INCREASING SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY SHOULD BRING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES UP TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR OCTOBER 24.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WILL START OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, AS
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE REACH THE NOVA SCOTIA AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES, AND OTHER THAN A FEW
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD, A QUIET NIGHT IS
EXPECTED. FOR THE MOST PART, MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS, WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S
FOR THE AREA, EXCEPT SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES.

FOR SATURDAY, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAYTIME;
ALTHOUGH, A COLD FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING
OUR AREA FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY EVENING. WE
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND
PLEASANT DAYTIME TEMPS INTO THE 60S FOR THE REGION, AND WE ALSO KEPT
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE PICTURE FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT AND TROUGH PASS THROUGH
THE AREA. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MINIMAL, THOUGH, AS THERE IS
LIMITED MOISTURE AND MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PASSES BY TO OUR
NORTH. GOING INTO SUNDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND
SOUTHEAST CANADA, WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST
AGAIN BUILDS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WE WILL BE PRECIP-FREE
WITH AMPLE SUN, BUT A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAKE FOR A
BREEZY SUNDAY, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE AND
GUSTING AT TIMES UPWARDS OF 25 MPH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD. THIS PATTERN
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MODERATING TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA, ESPECIALLY INTO TUESDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE
AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION. USING A BLEND OF WPC
GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY, WE EXPECT TUESDAY`S MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR THE FORECAST AREA. A RATHER PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE,
WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AND ITS
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. WE HAVE KEPT SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA; ALTHOUGH, MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO PASS BY TO OUR NORTH.
WITH THE FRONT OFFSHORE INTO THURSDAY, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MAY BUILD
TOWARD THE REGION. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A BIT COOLER WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE, MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. SOME MVFR CEILINGS
HAVE TRICKLED INTO KABE AND KRDG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
AROUND 14Z AND THEN REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF.

WINDS HAVE LOST THEIR GUSTINESS OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN AROUND 10
KNOTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TODAY WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 10-15 KNOTS ANDI GUSTS UP TO 24 KNOTS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE FAIRLY QUICKLY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED SHWRS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
EVE/NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT, MAINLY AFFECTING NORTHERN NJ AND THE
POCONOS.

SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT
15 TO 25 KNOTS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
UNDER 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND SPEEDS HAVE DECREASED BELOW GALES SO LET THE GALE WARNING
EXPIRE. HOWEVER, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY
FROM THE REGION.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS REMAINED IN THE 6 TO 10 FOOT RANGE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE SLOWLY DURING
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE AT
SUB-ADVISORY LEVELS AT THIS TIME, BUT SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE MET FOR OUR
COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING INTO
THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...KLINE/MEOLA
MARINE...IOVINO/JOHNSON/KLINE






  [top]

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240551
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
151 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO AND OVER THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO CURRENT FORECAST. DID SLOW DOWN THE DROP
IN TEMPS THIS EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME AREAS
OF CLOUDS AND WIND HOLDING TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS
AFTN. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE
MIDWEST/OH VALLEY. THIS HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT. PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS MOVED OUT OF THE LOCAL
AREA AND EXPECT DRY WX INTO TONIGHT. STILL A LOT OF CLOUDS ACROSS
THE EASTERN SHORE ATTM...WHILE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE SW.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM SW TO NE
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MAINLY CLEAR ALL AREAS BY DAYBREAK. DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW WILL MAINTAIN
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET BEFORE
DIMINISHING. LOWS TONIGHT FROM NR 40 WEST TO NEAR 50 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL AREA
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS THE LOW TO OUR NE SKIRTS ATLANTIC CANADA.
SUNSHINE WILL BE PLENTIFUL BOTH DAYS WITH MILDER TEMPS IN THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONT
CROSSED THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL DO LITTLE
MORE THAN INCREASE WINDS FROM THE NW ON SUNDAY WHILE SUNSHINE
REMAINS PLENTIFUL. HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S NE TO LOW/MID 70S SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AND THEN SLIDES OFF THE
COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE
DRY/RAIN-FREE. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD...TEMPS WILL BEGIN
TO WARM INTO THE LOW-MID 70S DURING THE DAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL
LIKELY EXPERIENCE A MUCH SLOWER WARMING TREND WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE
40S SUN NIGHT (LOW-MID 50S BEACHES)...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
MON NIGHT (MID 50S BEACHES)...AND IN THE 50S TUE NIGHT. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT TO IMPACT THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA LATE WED NIGHT. EXPECT CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES WITH
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS WEDNESDAY
PROGRESSES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME LINGERING
4-5K FT CEILINGS PERSISTING OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EASTERN SHORE.
OTHERWISE, DEEP LOW PRES SYS NOW EAST OF CAPE COD WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NE TODAY...EVENTUALLY LOCATING EAST OF MAINE BY THIS AFTN.
PRES GRADIENT HAS SLACKENED AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE FALLEN OFF OVER
THE CWA. NW WINDS 8-12 KT WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK: VFR CONDS LOOK TO PERSIST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...EVENTUALLY SLIDING
OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SCA CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS ALL WATERS AND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTN...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
FAR NRN COASTAL WATERS WHICH WILL BE IN SCA DUE TO SEAS AROUND 5FT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. CURRENT CONDITIONS CONSIST OF GUSTY
NW WINDS (15-25KT/GUSTS 25-30KT)...SEAS AVERAGING 4-8FT...AND
WAVES OF 3-5FT IN THE MOUTH OF CHES BAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION
PROCESSES WILL GRADUALLY LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE WINDS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK NE OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE EVEN SLOWER
TO RELAX THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST AND THE NEW ENGLAND LOW BEGINS TO DEPART THE NORTHEAST
COAST. EXPECT BREEZY NW WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRI/FRI NIGHT.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF NW SURGE FRI EVENING IN NRN CHES BAY AND THE
NRN COASTAL WATERS BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ADDITIONAL SCA FLAGS
UNTIL THE CURRENT SET HAS EXPIRED. SEAS/WAVES SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
DAY ON FRIDAY AND WILL AVERAGE 2-4FT/2-3FT RESPECTIVELY.

A WEAK TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS ON SATURDAY. NNW WINDS WILL
BACK AROUND TO THE SW ON SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND
THEN VEER TO THE NW AFTER IT PASSES THE AREA. A PUSH OF COOLER AIR
LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A COLD AIR SURGE
OVER CHES BAY AND THE COASTAL WATERS YET AGAIN. SCA MAY BE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3-4FT...MAYBE UP
TO 5 FT NEAR BUOY 44009. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS ON
MONDAY AND THEN SLIDES EWD OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/MAS
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...BMD/JEF
AVIATION...MAM/DAP
MARINE...BMD








  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240422
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1222 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. A WARM UP INTO THE 70S IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT UPDATE TO ADDRESS GROWING STATUS FROM INDIANA COUNTY TO
VENANGO AND NORTHEAST...AS WELL AS LINGERING STRATUS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST RIDGES TO KMGW. STILL THINK STRATUS WILL BE SHORT LIVED
WITH APPROACHING CIRRUS AND SURFACE RIDGE...AS NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL ABATE AS CLOSED LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHEAST.
ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES BUT FORECAST LOWS STILL LOOK IN LINE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.


H500 RIDGE AXIS APPROACHING...BUT WEAKENING DUE TO INFLUENCE OF
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE
SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE AND APPROACHING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. EXPECT THESE TO HOLD TOGETHER SOMEWHAT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF
THE OHIO RIVER. HAVE BUMPED UP SKY GRIDS SLIGHTLY IN THIS AREA.
STUBBORN LOWER CLOUDS IN SOUTHEASTERN CWA CORNER SHOULD ERODE
LATER TONIGHT AS RIDGE APPROACHES.

AS FOR FOG POTENTIAL...THE COMBINATION OF HIGH CLOUDS PLUS 15-20
KNOTS OF WIND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST FOG.
HAVE REMOVED IT FROM THE GRIDS. TEMPERATURES ONLY TWEAKED...WITH
MANY READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S STILL EXPECTED. CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHG TO PREV FCST DURG THE WKEND. SHRTWV TROF WILL PASS
GENLY N OF FCST AREA...BARELY GRAZING THE RGN ON SAT AFTN AND EVE.
VERY LMTD MSTR WILL PRECLUDE SGFNT SHWR DVLPMT...BUT ALL GUIDANCE
DOES INDICATE SOME CVRG OF PCPN WITH THIS WAVE PASSAGE. SLGT CHC
POPS CONTAINED IN PREV FCST SEEMED REASONABLE...WITH ONLY MINOR
CHGS LMTD TO TIMING AND GEOGRAPHY. SFC HIPRES BUILDS INTO THE RGN
ON SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PREV DRY FCST WAS QUITE REASONABLE THRU TUE AS DRY HIPRES WILL
DOMINATE THE GRTLKS RGN...WHICH WILL BE LOCATED DOWNSTREAM OF UPR
RDG. BY MONDAY EVE...RETURN FLOW AROUND ERN CONUS SFC HIPRES WILL
BE IN FULL FORCE...WITH SLY LOW-LVL JET DVLPG IN THE MS RVR VLY
RGN AHEAD OF A STRONG SHRTWV TROF. RESULT WILL BE STRONG NWD
ADVCTN OF MSTR AND WARMTH. AS A RESULT...TEMPS MON AND SPCLY TUE
WILL BE UNUSUALLY WARM...PSBLY AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEG F ABV CLIMO.

MEDIUM-RNG GUIDANCE IS QUITE CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING PASSAGE OF
THE STRONG SHRTWV TROF ON WED...ALTHOUGH TIMING IS UNCLEAR ON
WHETHER THAT PASSAGE WILL OCCUR WED MRNG OR WED AFTN. IN EITHER
CASE...POPS WERE INCRD ABV MEX NUMBERS AND GENLY IN LINE WITH HPC
NUMBERS DURING THE WED PD. A FURTHER INCR IN POPS MAY BE WARRANTED...
AS IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE MEASURABLE PCPN AT SOME TIME ON
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREAS OF LOW MVFR ST ACRS NW PA IS EXPD TO AFFECT FKL AND DUJ OVRNGT
WHERE MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION. ELSW...OTHER THAN SOME
ERLY MRNG MVFR BR IN OH VFR CONDS ARE EXPD INTO TNGT UNDER BLDG HIGH
PRES.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BRF RSTRNS ARE PSBL FOR NW PA WITH A WK SAT CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240159
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
959 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO AND OVER THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEC TO CURRENT FORECAST. DID SLOW DOWN THE DROP
IN TEMPS THIS EVENG/ERLY OVRNGT AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME AREAS
OF CLOUDS AND WIND HOLDING TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS
AFTN. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE
MIDWEST/OH VALLEY. THIS HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT. PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS MOVED OUT OF THE LOCAL
AREA AND EXPECT DRY WX INTO TONIGHT. STILL A LOT OF CLOUDS ACROSS
THE EASTERN SHORE ATTM...WHILE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE SW.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM SW TO NE
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MAINLY CLEAR ALL AREAS BY DAYBREAK. DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW WILL MAINTAIN
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET BEFORE
DIMINISHING. LOWS TONIGHT FROM NR 40 WEST TO NEAR 50 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL AREA
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS THE LOW TO OUR NE SKIRTS ATLANTIC CANADA.
SUNSHINE WILL BE PLENTIFUL BOTH DAYS WITH MILDER TEMPS IN THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONT
CROSSED THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL DO LITTLE
MORE THAN INCREASE WINDS FROM THE NW ON SUNDAY WHILE SUNSHINE
REMAINS PLENTIFUL. HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S NE TO LOW/MID 70S SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AND THEN SLIDES OFF THE
COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE
DRY/RAIN-FREE. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD...TEMPS WILL BEGIN
TO WARM INTO THE LOW-MID 70S DURING THE DAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL
LIKELY EXPERIENCE A MUCH SLOWER WARMING TREND WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE
40S SUN NIGHT (LOW-MID 50S BEACHES)...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
MON NIGHT (MID 50S BEACHES)...AND IN THE 50S TUE NIGHT. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT TO IMPACT THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA LATE WED NIGHT. EXPECT CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES WITH
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS WEDNESDAY
PROGRESSES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME LINGERING
4-5K FT CEILINGS PERSISTING OVER THE EASTERN SHORE INVOF KSBY.
DEEP LOW PRES SYS NOW OFF THE NY/NJ COASTLINE WILL CONT UP THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST EVENTUALLY LOCATING EAST OF MAINE BY FRIDAY
MORNING. PRES GRADIENT HAS SLACKENED AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE FALLEN
OFF OVER THE CWA. NW WINDS 8-12 KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THE
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

VFR CONDS LOOK TO PERSIST FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SCA CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS ALL WATERS AND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTN...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
FAR NRN COASTAL WATERS WHICH WILL BE IN SCA DUE TO SEAS AROUND 5FT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. CURRENT CONDITIONS CONSIST OF GUSTY
NW WINDS (15-25KT/GUSTS 25-30KT)...SEAS AVERAGING 4-8FT...AND
WAVES OF 3-5FT IN THE MOUTH OF CHES BAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION
PROCESSES WILL GRADUALLY LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE WINDS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK NE OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE EVEN SLOWER
TO RELAX THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST AND THE NEW ENGLAND LOW BEGINS TO DEPART THE NORTHEAST
COAST. EXPECT BREEZY NW WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRI/FRI NIGHT.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF NW SURGE FRI EVENING IN NRN CHES BAY AND THE
NRN COASTAL WATERS BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ADDITIONAL SCA FLAGS
UNTIL THE CURRENT SET HAS EXPIRED. SEAS/WAVES SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
DAY ON FRIDAY AND WILL AVERAGE 2-4FT/2-3FT RESPECTIVELY.

A WEAK TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS ON SATURDAY. NNW WINDS WILL
BACK AROUND TO THE SW ON SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND
THEN VEER TO THE NW AFTER IT PASSES THE AREA. A PUSH OF COOLER AIR
LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A COLD AIR SURGE
OVER CHES BAY AND THE COASTAL WATERS YET AGAIN. SCA MAY BE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3-4FT...MAYBE UP
TO 5 FT NEAR BUOY 44009. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS ON
MONDAY AND THEN SLIDES EWD OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/MAS
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...BMD/JEF
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...BMD







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240159
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
959 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO AND OVER THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEC TO CURRENT FORECAST. DID SLOW DOWN THE DROP
IN TEMPS THIS EVENG/ERLY OVRNGT AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME AREAS
OF CLOUDS AND WIND HOLDING TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS
AFTN. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE
MIDWEST/OH VALLEY. THIS HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT. PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS MOVED OUT OF THE LOCAL
AREA AND EXPECT DRY WX INTO TONIGHT. STILL A LOT OF CLOUDS ACROSS
THE EASTERN SHORE ATTM...WHILE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE SW.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM SW TO NE
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MAINLY CLEAR ALL AREAS BY DAYBREAK. DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW WILL MAINTAIN
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET BEFORE
DIMINISHING. LOWS TONIGHT FROM NR 40 WEST TO NEAR 50 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL AREA
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS THE LOW TO OUR NE SKIRTS ATLANTIC CANADA.
SUNSHINE WILL BE PLENTIFUL BOTH DAYS WITH MILDER TEMPS IN THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONT
CROSSED THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL DO LITTLE
MORE THAN INCREASE WINDS FROM THE NW ON SUNDAY WHILE SUNSHINE
REMAINS PLENTIFUL. HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S NE TO LOW/MID 70S SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AND THEN SLIDES OFF THE
COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE
DRY/RAIN-FREE. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD...TEMPS WILL BEGIN
TO WARM INTO THE LOW-MID 70S DURING THE DAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL
LIKELY EXPERIENCE A MUCH SLOWER WARMING TREND WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE
40S SUN NIGHT (LOW-MID 50S BEACHES)...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
MON NIGHT (MID 50S BEACHES)...AND IN THE 50S TUE NIGHT. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT TO IMPACT THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA LATE WED NIGHT. EXPECT CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES WITH
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS WEDNESDAY
PROGRESSES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME LINGERING
4-5K FT CEILINGS PERSISTING OVER THE EASTERN SHORE INVOF KSBY.
DEEP LOW PRES SYS NOW OFF THE NY/NJ COASTLINE WILL CONT UP THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST EVENTUALLY LOCATING EAST OF MAINE BY FRIDAY
MORNING. PRES GRADIENT HAS SLACKENED AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE FALLEN
OFF OVER THE CWA. NW WINDS 8-12 KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THE
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

VFR CONDS LOOK TO PERSIST FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SCA CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS ALL WATERS AND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTN...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
FAR NRN COASTAL WATERS WHICH WILL BE IN SCA DUE TO SEAS AROUND 5FT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. CURRENT CONDITIONS CONSIST OF GUSTY
NW WINDS (15-25KT/GUSTS 25-30KT)...SEAS AVERAGING 4-8FT...AND
WAVES OF 3-5FT IN THE MOUTH OF CHES BAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION
PROCESSES WILL GRADUALLY LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE WINDS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK NE OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE EVEN SLOWER
TO RELAX THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST AND THE NEW ENGLAND LOW BEGINS TO DEPART THE NORTHEAST
COAST. EXPECT BREEZY NW WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRI/FRI NIGHT.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF NW SURGE FRI EVENING IN NRN CHES BAY AND THE
NRN COASTAL WATERS BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ADDITIONAL SCA FLAGS
UNTIL THE CURRENT SET HAS EXPIRED. SEAS/WAVES SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
DAY ON FRIDAY AND WILL AVERAGE 2-4FT/2-3FT RESPECTIVELY.

A WEAK TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS ON SATURDAY. NNW WINDS WILL
BACK AROUND TO THE SW ON SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND
THEN VEER TO THE NW AFTER IT PASSES THE AREA. A PUSH OF COOLER AIR
LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A COLD AIR SURGE
OVER CHES BAY AND THE COASTAL WATERS YET AGAIN. SCA MAY BE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3-4FT...MAYBE UP
TO 5 FT NEAR BUOY 44009. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS ON
MONDAY AND THEN SLIDES EWD OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/MAS
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...BMD/JEF
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...BMD







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240134
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
934 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. A WARMUP INTO THE 70S IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
H500 RIDGE AXIS APPROACHING...BUT WEAKENING DUE TO INFLUENCE OF
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE
SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE AND APPROACHING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. EXPECT THESE TO HOLD TOGETHER SOMEWHAT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF
THE OHIO RIVER. HAVE BUMPED UP SKY GRIDS SLIGHTLY IN THIS AREA.
STUBBORN LOWER CLOUDS IN SOUTHEASTERN CWA CORNER SHOULD ERODE
LATER TONIGHT AS RIDGE APPROACHES.

AS FOR FOG POTENTIAL...THE COMBINATION OF HIGH CLOUDS PLUS 15-20
KNOTS OF WIND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST FOG.
HAVE REMOVED IT FROM THE GRIDS. TEMPERATURES ONLY TWEAKED...WITH
MANY READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S STILL EXPECTED. CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHG TO PREV FCST DURG THE WKEND. SHRTWV TROF WILL PASS
GENLY N OF FCST AREA...BARELY GRAZING THE RGN ON SAT AFTN AND EVE.
VERY LMTD MSTR WILL PRECLUDE SGFNT SHWR DVLPMT...BUT ALL GUIDANCE
DOES INDICATE SOME CVRG OF PCPN WITH THIS WAVE PASSAGE. SLGT CHC
POPS CONTAINED IN PREV FCST SEEMED REASONABLE...WITH ONLY MINOR
CHGS LMTD TO TIMING AND GEOGRAPHY. SFC HIPRES BUILDS INTO THE RGN
ON SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PREV DRY FCST WAS QUITE REASONABLE THRU TUE AS DRY HIPRES WILL
DOMINATE THE GRTLKS RGN...WHICH WILL BE LOCATED DOWNSTREAM OF UPR
RDG. BY MONDAY EVE...RETURN FLOW AROUND ERN CONUS SFC HIPRES WILL
BE IN FULL FORCE...WITH SLY LOW-LVL JET DVLPG IN THE MS RVR VLY
RGN AHEAD OF A STRONG SHRTWV TROF. RESULT WILL BE STRONG NWD
ADVCTN OF MSTR AND WARMTH. AS A RESULT...TEMPS MON AND SPCLY TUE
WILL BE UNUSUALLY WARM...PSBLY AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEG F ABV CLIMO.

MEDIUM-RNG GUIDANCE IS QUITE CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING PASSAGE OF
THE STRONG SHRTWV TROF ON WED...ALTHOUGH TIMING IS UNCLEAR ON
WHETHER THAT PASSAGE WILL OCCUR WED MRNG OR WED AFTN. IN EITHER
CASE...POPS WERE INCRD ABV MEX NUMBERS AND GENLY IN LINE WITH HPC
NUMBERS DURING THE WED PD. A FURTHER INCR IN POPS MAY BE WARRANTED...
AS IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE MEASURABLE PCPN AT SOME TIME ON
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PATCHY MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 240124
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
924 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT, REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD
TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, EVENTUALLY MOVING
OFFSHORE TUESDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO LIFT TO OUR NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT REACHING OUR AREA LATER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA TONIGHT, PASSING WELL TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

JUST A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE POCONOS. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT THE REGION TO BE DRY OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO
MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD DURING THE NIGHT WITH SOME BREAKS POSSIBLE OVER
DELMARVA AND FAR SOUTHERN NJ.

THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CLOSE WITH TONIGHT`S MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. READINGS SHOULD FALL MAINLY INTO THE 40S WITH
A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY. GRADUAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, SOME THIN CIRRUS FROM
THE WEST MAY OVERSPREAD OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST
TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH.

THE INCREASING SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY SHOULD BRING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES UP TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR OCTOBER 24.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WILL START OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, AS
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE REACH THE NOVA SCOTIA AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES, AND OTHER THAN A FEW
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD, A QUIET NIGHT IS
EXPECTED. FOR THE MOST PART, MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS, WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S
FOR THE AREA, EXCEPT SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES.

FOR SATURDAY, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAYTIME;
ALTHOUGH, A COLD FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING
OUR AREA FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY EVENING. WE
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND
PLEASANT DAYTIME TEMPS INTO THE 60S FOR THE REGION, AND WE ALSO KEPT
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE PICTURE FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT AND TROUGH PASS THROUGH
THE AREA. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MINIMAL, THOUGH, AS THERE IS
LIMITED MOISTURE AND MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PASSES BY TO OUR
NORTH. GOING INTO SUNDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND
SOUTHEAST CANADA, WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST
AGAIN BUILDS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WE WILL BE PRECIP-FREE
WITH AMPLE SUN, BUT A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAKE FOR A
BREEZY SUNDAY, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE AND
GUSTING AT TIMES UPWARDS OF 25 MPH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD. THIS PATTERN
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MODERATING TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA, ESPECIALLY INTO TUESDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE
AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION. USING A BLEND OF WPC
GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY, WE EXPECT TUESDAY`S MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR THE FORECAST AREA. A RATHER PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE,
WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AND ITS
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. WE HAVE KEPT SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA; ALTHOUGH, MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO PASS BY TO OUR NORTH.
WITH THE FRONT OFFSHORE INTO THURSDAY, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MAY BUILD
TOWARD THE REGION. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A BIT COOLER WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE, MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 00Z TAF PERIOD...PREDOMINATELY VFR ESPECIALLY FROM KPHL
AND SOUTH. FOR KRDG AND KABE, A FEW LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 02Z. AFTER 09Z, THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS BETWEEN 4000
AND 8000 FT AGL ARE EXPECTED TO ERODE FROM NW TO SE. AS IT DOES
SO, THERE IS A RISK THAT LOWER, MVFR CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP BEFORE
SUNRISE. THINK THIS IS MOST LIKELY AT KRDG AND KABE, BUT THERE IS
A SMALL RISK TOO AT KTTN AND KPNE.

THE BREEZY CONDITIONS, WITH GUSTS ABOVE 20KT SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 8 TO 12 KNOTS
IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT. THE NORTHWEST WIND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
ON FRIDAY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10
KNOTS.

SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED SHWRS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
EVE/NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT, MAINLY AFFECTING NORTHERN NJ AND THE
POCONOS.

SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT
15 TO 25 KNOTS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
UNDER 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND SPEEDS HAVE DECREASED BELOW GALES SO LET THE GALE WARNING
EXPIRE. HOWEVER, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY
FROM THE REGION.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS REMAINED IN THE 6 TO 10 FOOT RANGE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE SLOWLY DURING
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE AT
SUB-ADVISORY LEVELS AT THIS TIME, BUT SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE MET FOR OUR
COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING INTO
THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...IOVINO/JOHNSON/KLINE
MARINE...IOVINO/JOHNSON/KLINE






  [top]

000
FXUS61 KLWX 240105
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
905 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM OFF CAPE COD TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
BY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT
AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

LOPRES OFF ACK THIS EVE. IT/LL CONT TO PULL AWAY OVNGT. AS
XPCTD...THE GRADIENT SLACKENED QUITE A BIT AFT SUNSET...AND MAY
COME CLS TO OUTRIGHT DCPLG BY DAWN. STILL HV STCU TO CONTEND WITH
THO. THERES A PATCH OVER THE WRN SLOPES OF THE APLCNS AND ANTHR FM
HGR-EZF NEWD. CLD DECK LOOKING RATHER THIN ON RAOB...BUT THERE/S
AN INVSN ATOP IT. GDNC BUFR DATA SUGGESTING LTLCHG IN CLDS OVNGT.
WL GNLY SIDE W/ THAT SOLN...ALTHO MAY EASE UP ON INTENSITY
/PERCENTAGE/ TWD DAWN. THAT CLDCVR CHG WL IN TURN AFFECT MIN-T.
ADDED A CONTRIBUTION FM MET/NAM WHICH BROUGHT MIN-T CLOSER TO
LAMP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY. THERE
WILL BE SOME LEFTOVER PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE COASTAL
LOW...WHICH WILL BE REACHING THE MARITIMES BY THE END OF THE
DAY...SO NW WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 20KT IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. WITH MORE SUNSHINE...SLIGHTLY HIGHER 1000-500MB
THICKNESS AND A PARTIAL DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT...HIGHS WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY...AND MID 50S TO
LOW 60S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL
HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE. DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY SOME UPSLOPE RAIN OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS SATURDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 60S FRIDAY...AND UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 IN SOME SPOTS SATURDAY. LOWS IN THE 40S FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE METRO AREAS...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN AREAS THAT
RADIATE WELL FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A RATHER BENIGN
PATTERN...WITH DEEP-LAYER RIDGING ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST COAST FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE A FEW FEATURES OF NOTE...1- A
PRESSURE SURGE/SECONDARY COLD FRONT SUNDAY ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY
WINDS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES BUT NO PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY...2- A
COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...AND 3- A POTENTIAL APPROACHING TROUGH
LATER IN THE WEEK.

ALL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT THEN DIVERGES AFTER THAT.

DEEP-LAYER /DRY/ NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVENT APPRECIABLE
MOISTURE FROM MOVING OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGS BY TO THE NORTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. THUS THE REFLECTION
AT THE SURFACE IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED
BY ANY PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AFTER THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND COULD BE GUSTY. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL USHER
IN A COOLER AIRMASS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO
FREEZING OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SLOPES. RIGHT NOW THE AREAS
THAT ARE MOST LIKELY TO FALL TO FREEZING HAVE ALREADY HAD THEIR
GROWING SEASON ENDED BY A FREEZE EARLIER THIS WEEK...BUT IF WINDS
DIE OFF QUICKER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST DURING THE EVENING MORE
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGHLANDS.

THE AIRMASS WILL REBOUND QUICKLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETS UP JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...SETTING UP A SOUTHWESTERLY
RETURN FLOW. MODELS/ENSEMBLES ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY BRING
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. HOWEVER THE BEST UPPER-LEVEL FORCING
PASSES OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SO AT THE MOMENT PRECIPITATION
WOULD LIKELY BE OF THE MORE SCATTERED VARIETY.

BEYOND THIS TIME IS WHEN THE MODELS DIVERGE...WITH NON-NCEP GUIDANCE
DEPICTING A FLAT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE EAST COAST...WHILE THE
GFS/SEVERAL GEFS MEMBERS HAVE A MUCH DEEPER TROUGH AND IMPENDING
CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC BY THE END OF NEXT THURSDAY. THE
UNCERTAINTY STEMS FROM SPREAD IN HOW GUIDANCE HANDLES A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA...WITH THE GFS
SLOWER/DEEPER RESULTING IN WEST COAST RIDGING/DEEPER EAST COAST
TROUGHING...AND THE NON-NCEP GUIDANCE A LITTLE QUICKER BRINGING THE
UPPER LOW CLOSER TO THE NORTHWEST COAST AND FLATTENING OUT THE
DOWNSTREAM FLOW RESULTING IN A LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS. THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE AND TELECONNECTIONS WOULD
TEND TO FAVOR A LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN AT THE MOMENT BUT THAT STRAYS
FROM THE PATTERN WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS. TIME WILL
BE THE BEST INDICATOR AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE PATTERN IS READY FOR
A CHANGE OR IF THE MID-ATLANTIC IS IN STORE FOR ANOTHER LARGE AND
SLOW-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND STORMINESS LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH VALID TAF PD. NW FLOW AROUND 10KT OVNGT...LIGHTER AT KCHO.
VFR CONTINUES FRIDAY WITH NW WINDS 10-15KT...GUSTING TO 20KT LATE
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. VFR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH LIGHTER WINDS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN-MON NIGHT. GUSTY NW FLOW SUN UP TO 25
KTS POSSIBLE...DIMINISHING SUN NIGHT INTO MON AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS SUBSIDING AS LOPRES PULLS AWAY. MAROBS SUGGEST ALL WINDS AOB
15 KT ATTM...AND HV BEEN SO SINCE JUST AFDK. HV DROPPED SCA FOR
NARROWER WATERWAYS /MID-UPR PTMC/NRN BAY/BALT HARBOR/PAX RIVER/
THUS FAR. AM REAL TEMPTED TO DROP THE REST FOR THE OVNGT HRS.

WNNDS RENEW FRIDAY MORNING W/ DIURNAL MIXING AS GUSTS AROUND 20KT
ARE EXPECTED MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIGHTER WINDS FRI
NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

A PRESSURE SURGE BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOLID
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS/SEAS SUBSIDE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE SOUTHERLY CHANNELING BETWEEN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE
AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY COULD RESULT IN
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538>540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...KCS
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...HTS/KCS/DFH
MARINE...HTS/KCS/DFH








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240027
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
827 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO AND OVER THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS
AFTN. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE
MIDWEST/OH VALLEY. THIS HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT. PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS MOVED OUT OF THE LOCAL
AREA AND EXPECT DRY WX INTO TONIGHT. STILL A LOT OF CLOUDS ACROSS
THE EASTERN SHORE ATTM...WHILE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE SW. CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM SW TO NE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING
MAINLY CLEAR ALL AREAS BY DAYBREAK. DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FA THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET BEFORE DIMINISHING. LOWS
TONIGHT FROM NR 40 WEST TO NEAR 50 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL AREA
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS THE LOW TO OUR NE SKIRTS ATLANTIC CANADA.
SUNSHINE WILL BE PLENTIFUL BOTH DAYS WITH MILDER TEMPS IN THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONT
CROSSED THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL DO LITTLE
MORE THAN INCREASE WINDS FROM THE NW ON SUNDAY WHILE SUNSHINE
REMAINS PLENTIFUL. HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S NE TO LOW/MID 70S SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AND THEN SLIDES OFF THE
COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE
DRY/RAIN-FREE. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD...TEMPS WILL BEGIN
TO WARM INTO THE LOW-MID 70S DURING THE DAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL
LIKELY EXPERIENCE A MUCH SLOWER WARMING TREND WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE
40S SUN NIGHT (LOW-MID 50S BEACHES)...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
MON NIGHT (MID 50S BEACHES)...AND IN THE 50S TUE NIGHT. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT TO IMPACT THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA LATE WED NIGHT. EXPECT CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES WITH
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS WEDNESDAY
PROGRESSES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME LINGERING
4-5K FT CEILINGS PERSISTING OVER THE EASTERN SHORE INVOF KSBY.
DEEP LOW PRES SYS NOW OFF THE NY/NJ COASTLINE WILL CONT UP THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST EVENTUALLY LOCATING EAST OF MAINE BY FRIDAY
MORNING. PRES GRADIENT HAS SLACKENED AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE FALLEN
OFF OVER THE CWA. NW WINDS 8-12 KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THE
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

VFR CONDS LOOK TO PERSIST FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SCA CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS ALL WATERS AND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTN...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
FAR NRN COASTAL WATERS WHICH WILL BE IN SCA DUE TO SEAS AROUND 5FT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. CURRENT CONDITIONS CONSIST OF GUSTY
NW WINDS (15-25KT/GUSTS 25-30KT)...SEAS AVERAGING 4-8FT...AND
WAVES OF 3-5FT IN THE MOUTH OF CHES BAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION
PROCESSES WILL GRADUALLY LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE WINDS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK NE OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE EVEN SLOWER
TO RELAX THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST AND THE NEW ENGLAND LOW BEGINS TO DEPART THE NORTHEAST
COAST. EXPECT BREEZY NW WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRI/FRI NIGHT.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF NW SURGE FRI EVENING IN NRN CHES BAY AND THE
NRN COASTAL WATERS BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ADDITIONAL SCA FLAGS
UNTIL THE CURRENT SET HAS EXPIRED. SEAS/WAVES SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
DAY ON FRIDAY AND WILL AVERAGE 2-4FT/2-3FT RESPECTIVELY.

A WEAK TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS ON SATURDAY. NNW WINDS WILL
BACK AROUND TO THE SW ON SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND
THEN VEER TO THE NW AFTER IT PASSES THE AREA. A PUSH OF COOLER AIR
LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A COLD AIR SURGE
OVER CHES BAY AND THE COASTAL WATERS YET AGAIN. SCA MAY BE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3-4FT...MAYBE UP
TO 5 FT NEAR BUOY 44009. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS ON
MONDAY AND THEN SLIDES EWD OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...BMD/JEF
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...BMD







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 232327
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
727 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. A WARMUP INTO THE 70S IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
6PM UPDATE...MAINLY JUST UPDATED FOR CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS.
REST LEFT ALONE FOR NOW. WILL REEVALUATE FOG POSSIBILITIES LATER
THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN A
WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...WHICH WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT INVERSIONS TO
SET UP. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. HOWEVER...IF MORE
UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST...TEMPERATURES MAY NOT DROP FAR ENOUGH TO BRING SURFACE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TOGETHER. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE
MENTION OF FOG IN THE FORECAST FROM EARLY MORNING UNTIL SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PASS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE
MUCH IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER AS THERE IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHG TO PREV FCST DURG THE WKEND. SHRTWV TROF WILL PASS
GENLY N OF FCST AREA...BARELY GRAZING THE RGN ON SAT AFTN AND EVE.
VERY LMTD MSTR WILL PRECLUDE SGFNT SHWR DVLPMT...BUT ALL GUIDANCE
DOES INDICATE SOME CVRG OF PCPN WITH THIS WAVE PASSAGE. SLGT CHC
POPS CONTAINED IN PREV FCST SEEMED REASONABLE...WITH ONLY MINOR
CHGS LMTD TO TIMING AND GEOGRAPHY. SFC HIPRES BUILDS INTO THE RGN
ON SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PREV DRY FCST WAS QUITE REASONABLE THRU TUE AS DRY HIPRES WILL
DOMINATE THE GRTLKS RGN...WHICH WILL BE LOCATED DOWNSTREAM OF UPR
RDG. BY MONDAY EVE...RETURN FLOW AROUND ERN CONUS SFC HIPRES WILL
BE IN FULL FORCE...WITH SLY LOW-LVL JET DVLPG IN THE MS RVR VLY
RGN AHEAD OF A STRONG SHRTWV TROF. RESULT WILL BE STRONG NWD
ADVCTN OF MSTR AND WARMTH. AS A RESULT...TEMPS MON AND SPCLY TUE
WILL BE UNUSUALLY WARM...PSBLY AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEG F ABV CLIMO.

MEDIUM-RNG GUIDANCE IS QUITE CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING PASSAGE OF
THE STRONG SHRTWV TROF ON WED...ALTHOUGH TIMING IS UNCLEAR ON
WHETHER THAT PASSAGE WILL OCCUR WED MRNG OR WED AFTN. IN EITHER
CASE...POPS WERE INCRD ABV MEX NUMBERS AND GENLY IN LINE WITH HPC
NUMBERS DURING THE WED PD. A FURTHER INCR IN POPS MAY BE WARRANTED...
AS IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE MEASURABLE PCPN AT SOME TIME ON
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PATCHY MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 232322
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
722 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT, REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD
TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, EVENTUALLY MOVING
OFFSHORE TUESDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO LIFT TO OUR NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT REACHING OUR AREA LATER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA TONIGHT, PASSING WELL TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

PRECIPITATION HAS MOSTLY MOVED OUT OF OUR REGION WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW SHOWERS IN THE POCONOS. VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
FURTHER UPSTREAM MOVING SOUTH, MAY ALSO MOVE INTO THE POCONOS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SO MADE NO CHANGES TO THE POPS AT THIS TIME.

THE DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THE CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVERHEAD DURING THE NIGHT WITH SOME BREAKS
POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT READING TO COATESVILLE TO DELAWARE BAY
SOUTHWESTWARD.

THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CLOSE WITH TONIGHT`S MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. READINGS SHOULD FALL MAINLY INTO THE 40S WITH
A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY. GRADUAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, SOME THIN CIRRUS FROM
THE WEST MAY OVERSPREAD OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST
TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH.

THE INCREASING SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY SHOULD BRING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES UP TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR OCTOBER 24.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WILL START OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, AS
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE REACH THE NOVA SCOTIA AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES, AND OTHER THAN A FEW
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD, A QUIET NIGHT IS
EXPECTED. FOR THE MOST PART, MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS, WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S
FOR THE AREA, EXCEPT SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES.

FOR SATURDAY, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAYTIME;
ALTHOUGH, A COLD FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING
OUR AREA FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY EVENING. WE
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND
PLEASANT DAYTIME TEMPS INTO THE 60S FOR THE REGION, AND WE ALSO KEPT
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE PICTURE FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT AND TROUGH PASS THROUGH
THE AREA. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MINIMAL, THOUGH, AS THERE IS
LIMITED MOISTURE AND MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PASSES BY TO OUR
NORTH. GOING INTO SUNDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND
SOUTHEAST CANADA, WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST
AGAIN BUILDS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WE WILL BE PRECIP-FREE
WITH AMPLE SUN, BUT A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAKE FOR A
BREEZY SUNDAY, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE AND
GUSTING AT TIMES UPWARDS OF 25 MPH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD. THIS PATTERN
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MODERATING TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA, ESPECIALLY INTO TUESDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE
AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION. USING A BLEND OF WPC
GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY, WE EXPECT TUESDAY`S MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR THE FORECAST AREA. A RATHER PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE,
WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AND ITS
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. WE HAVE KEPT SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA; ALTHOUGH, MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO PASS BY TO OUR NORTH.
WITH THE FRONT OFFSHORE INTO THURSDAY, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MAY BUILD
TOWARD THE REGION. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A BIT COOLER WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE, MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 00Z TAF PERIOD...PREDOMINATELY VFR ESPECIALLY FROM KPHL
AND SOUTH. FOR KRDG AND KABE, A FEW LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 02Z. AFTER 09Z, THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS BETWEEN 4000
AND 8000 FT AGL ARE EXPECTED TO ERODE FROM NW TO SE. AS IT DOES
SO, THERE IS A RISK THAT LOWER, MVFR CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP BEFORE
SUNRISE. THINK THIS IS MOST LIKELY AT KRDG AND KABE, BUT THERE IS
A SMALL RISK TOO AT KTTN AND KPNE.

THE BREEZY CONDITIONS, WITH GUSTS ABOVE 20KT SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 8 TO 12 KNOTS
IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT. THE NORTHWEST WIND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
ON FRIDAY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10
KNOTS.

SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED SHWRS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
EVE/NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT, MAINLY AFFECTING NORTHERN NJ AND THE
POCONOS.

SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT
15 TO 25 KNOTS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
UNDER 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND SPEEDS HAVE DECREASED BELOW GALES SO LET THE GALE WARNING
EXPIRE. HOWEVER, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY
FROM THE REGION.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS REMAINED IN THE 6 TO 10 FOOT RANGE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE SLOWLY DURING
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE AT
SUB-ADVISORY LEVELS AT THIS TIME, BUT SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE MET FOR OUR
COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING INTO
THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...IOVINO/JOHNSON/KLINE
MARINE...IOVINO/JOHNSON/KLINE







000
FXUS61 KPHI 232209
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
609 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT, REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD
TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, EVENTUALLY MOVING
OFFSHORE TUESDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO LIFT TO OUR NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT REACHING OUR AREA LATER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA TONIGHT, PASSING WELL TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

PRECIPITATION HAS MOSTLY MOVED OUT OF OUR REGION WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW SHOWERS IN THE POCONOS. VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
FURTHER UPSTREAM MOVING SOUTH, MAY ALSO MOVE INTO THE POCONOS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SO MADE NO CHANGES TO THE POPS AT THIS TIME.

THE DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THE CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVERHEAD DURING THE NIGHT WITH SOME BREAKS
POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT READING TO COATESVILLE TO DELAWARE BAY
SOUTHWESTWARD.

THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CLOSE WITH TONIGHT`S MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. READINGS SHOULD FALL MAINLY INTO THE 40S WITH
A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY. GRADUAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, SOME THIN CIRRUS FROM
THE WEST MAY OVERSPREAD OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST
TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH.

THE INCREASING SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY SHOULD BRING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES UP TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR OCTOBER 24.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WILL START OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, AS
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE REACH THE NOVA SCOTIA AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES, AND OTHER THAN A FEW
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD, A QUIET NIGHT IS
EXPECTED. FOR THE MOST PART, MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS, WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S
FOR THE AREA, EXCEPT SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES.

FOR SATURDAY, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAYTIME;
ALTHOUGH, A COLD FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING
OUR AREA FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY EVENING. WE
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND
PLEASANT DAYTIME TEMPS INTO THE 60S FOR THE REGION, AND WE ALSO KEPT
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE PICTURE FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT AND TROUGH PASS THROUGH
THE AREA. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MINIMAL, THOUGH, AS THERE IS
LIMITED MOISTURE AND MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PASSES BY TO OUR
NORTH. GOING INTO SUNDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND
SOUTHEAST CANADA, WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST
AGAIN BUILDS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WE WILL BE PRECIP-FREE
WITH AMPLE SUN, BUT A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAKE FOR A
BREEZY SUNDAY, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE AND
GUSTING AT TIMES UPWARDS OF 25 MPH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD. THIS PATTERN
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MODERATING TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA, ESPECIALLY INTO TUESDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE
AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION. USING A BLEND OF WPC
GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY, WE EXPECT TUESDAY`S MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR THE FORECAST AREA. A RATHER PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE,
WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AND ITS
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. WE HAVE KEPT SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA; ALTHOUGH, MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO PASS BY TO OUR NORTH.
WITH THE FRONT OFFSHORE INTO THURSDAY, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MAY BUILD
TOWARD THE REGION. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A BIT COOLER WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE, MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO ALL THE TAF SITES AND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. GRADUAL CLEARING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY.

THE BREEZY CONDITIONS, WITH GUSTS ABOVE 20KT SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 8 TO 12 KNOTS
IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT. THE NORTHWEST WIND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
ON FRIDAY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10
KNOTS.

SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED SHWRS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
EVE/NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT, MAINLY AFFECTING NORTHERN NJ AND THE
POCONOS.

SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT
15 TO 25 KNOTS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
UNDER 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND SPEEDS HAVE DECREASED BELOW GALES SO LET THE GALE WARNING
EXPIRE. HOWEVER, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY
FROM THE REGION.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS REMAINED IN THE 6 TO 10 FOOT RANGE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE SLOWLY DURING
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE AT
SUB-ADVISORY LEVELS AT THIS TIME, BUT SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE MET FOR OUR
COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING INTO
THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...IOVINO/JOHNSON/KLINE
MARINE...IOVINO/JOHNSON/KLINE







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 232208
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
608 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. A WARMUP INTO THE 70S IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
6PM UPDATE...MAINLY JUST UPDATED FOR CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS.
REST LEFT ALONE FOR NOW. WILL REEVALUATE FOG POSSIBILITIES LATER
THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN A
WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...WHICH WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT INVERSIONS TO
SET UP. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. HOWEVER...IF MORE
UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST...TEMPERATURES MAY NOT DROP FAR ENOUGH TO BRING SURFACE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TOGETHER. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE
MENTION OF FOG IN THE FORECAST FROM EARLY MORNING UNTIL SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PASS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE
MUCH IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER AS THERE IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHG TO PREV FCST DURG THE WKEND. SHRTWV TROF WILL PASS
GENLY N OF FCST AREA...BARELY GRAZING THE RGN ON SAT AFTN AND EVE.
VERY LMTD MSTR WILL PRECLUDE SGFNT SHWR DVLPMT...BUT ALL GUIDANCE
DOES INDICATE SOME CVRG OF PCPN WITH THIS WAVE PASSAGE. SLGT CHC
POPS CONTAINED IN PREV FCST SEEMED REASONABLE...WITH ONLY MINOR
CHGS LMTD TO TIMING AND GEOGRAPHY. SFC HIPRES BUILDS INTO THE RGN
ON SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PREV DRY FCST WAS QUITE REASONABLE THRU TUE AS DRY HIPRES WILL
DOMINATE THE GRTLKS RGN...WHICH WILL BE LOCATED DOWNSTREAM OF UPR
RDG. BY MONDAY EVE...RETURN FLOW AROUND ERN CONUS SFC HIPRES WILL
BE IN FULL FORCE...WITH SLY LOW-LVL JET DVLPG IN THE MS RVR VLY
RGN AHEAD OF A STRONG SHRTWV TROF. RESULT WILL BE STRONG NWD
ADVCTN OF MSTR AND WARMTH. AS A RESULT...TEMPS MON AND SPCLY TUE
WILL BE UNUSUALLY WARM...PSBLY AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEG F ABV CLIMO.

MEDIUM-RNG GUIDANCE IS QUITE CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING PASSAGE OF
THE STRONG SHRTWV TROF ON WED...ALTHOUGH TIMING IS UNCLEAR ON
WHETHER THAT PASSAGE WILL OCCUR WED MRNG OR WED AFTN. IN EITHER
CASE...POPS WERE INCRD ABV MEX NUMBERS AND GENLY IN LINE WITH HPC
NUMBERS DURING THE WED PD. A FURTHER INCR IN POPS MAY BE WARRANTED...
AS IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE MEASURABLE PCPN AT SOME TIME ON
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PATCHY MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE...NO
RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 232006
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
406 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO AND OVER THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS
AFTN. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE
MIDWEST/OH VALLEY. THIS HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT. PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS MOVED OUT OF THE LOCAL
AREA AND EXPECT DRY WX INTO TONIGHT. STILL A LOT OF CLOUDS ACROSS
THE EASTERN SHORE ATTM...WHILE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE SW. CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM SW TO NE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING
MAINLY CLEAR ALL AREAS BY DAYBREAK. DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FA THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET BEFORE DIMINISHING. LOWS
TONIGHT FROM NR 40 WEST TO NEAR 50 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL AREA
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS THE LOW TO OUR NE SKIRTS ATLANTIC CANADA.
SUNSHINE WILL BE PLENTIFUL BOTH DAYS WITH MILDER TEMPS IN THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONT
CROSSED THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL DO LITTLE
MORE THAN INCREASE WINDS FROM THE NW ON SUNDAY WHILE SUNSHINE
REMAINS PLENTIFUL. HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S NE TO LOW/MID 70S SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AND THEN SLIDES OFF THE
COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE
DRY/RAIN-FREE. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD...TEMPS WILL BEGIN
TO WARM INTO THE LOW-MID 70S DURING THE DAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL
LIKELY EXPERIENCE A MUCH SLOWER WARMING TREND WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE
40S SUN NIGHT (LOW-MID 50S BEACHES)...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
MON NIGHT (MID 50S BEACHES)...AND IN THE 50S TUE NIGHT. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT TO IMPACT THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA LATE WED NIGHT. EXPECT CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES WITH
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS WEDNESDAY
PROGRESSES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD WITH SOME LINGERING
3-4K FT CEILINGS PERSISTING ALONG THE COAST INVOF KSBY. DEEPENING LOW
PRES SYS NOW WELL EAST OF THE NY/NJ COASTLINE WILL CONT UP THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST EVENTUALLY LOCATING EAST OF MAINE BY FRIDAY
MORNING. PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN COMPRESSED TODAY...RESULTING IN
GUSTY N-NW WINDS TO AROUND 20-25 KT OVER THE EASTERN SHORE INTO
THU AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE WEST THU NGT AND FRIDAY.

VFR CONDS LOOK TO PERSIST FRIDAY AFTN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SCA CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS ALL WATERS AND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTN...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
FAR NRN COASTAL WATERS WHICH WILL BE IN SCA DUE TO SEAS AROUND 5FT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. CURRENT CONDITIONS CONSIST OF GUSTY
NW WINDS (15-25KT/GUSTS 25-30KT)...SEAS AVERAGING 4-8FT...AND
WAVES OF 3-5FT IN THE MOUTH OF CHES BAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION
PROCESSES WILL GRADUALLY LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE WINDS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK NE OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE EVEN SLOWER
TO RELAX THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST AND THE NEW ENGLAND LOW BEGINS TO DEPART THE NORTHEAST
COAST. EXPECT BREEZY NW WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRI/FRI NIGHT.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF NW SURGE FRI EVENING IN NRN CHES BAY AND THE
NRN COASTAL WATERS BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ADDITIONAL SCA FLAGS
UNTIL THE CURRENT SET HAS EXPIRED. SEAS/WAVES SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
DAY ON FRIDAY AND WILL AVERAGE 2-4FT/2-3FT RESPECTIVELY.

A WEAK TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS ON SATURDAY. NNW WINDS WILL
BACK AROUND TO THE SW ON SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND
THEN VEER TO THE NW AFTER IT PASSES THE AREA. A PUSH OF COOLER AIR
LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A COLD AIR SURGE
OVER CHES BAY AND THE COASTAL WATERS YET AGAIN. SCA MAY BE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3-4FT...MAYBE UP
TO 5 FT NEAR BUOY 44009. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS ON
MONDAY AND THEN SLIDES EWD OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...BMD









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231937
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
337 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. A WARMUP INTO THE 70S IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN A
WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...WHICH WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT INVERSIONS TO
SET UP. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. HOWEVER...IF MORE
UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST...TEMPERATURES MAY NOT DROP FAR ENOUGH TO BRING SURFACE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TOGETHER. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE
MENTION OF FOG IN THE FORECAST FROM EARLY MORNING UNTIL SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PASS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE
MUCH IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER AS THERE IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHG TO PREV FCST DURG THE WKEND. SHRTWV TROF WILL PASS
GENLY N OF FCST AREA...BARELY GRAZING THE RGN ON SAT AFTN AND EVE.
VERY LMTD MSTR WILL PRECLUDE SGFNT SHWR DVLPMT...BUT ALL GUIDANCE
DOES INDICATE SOME CVRG OF PCPN WITH THIS WAVE PASSAGE. SLGT CHC
POPS CONTAINED IN PREV FCST SEEMED REASONABLE...WITH ONLY MINOR
CHGS LMTD TO TIMING AND GEOGRAPHY. SFC HIPRES BUILDS INTO THE RGN
ON SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PREV DRY FCST WAS QUITE REASONABLE THRU TUE AS DRY HIPRES WILL
DOMINATE THE GRTLKS RGN...WHICH WILL BE LOCATED DOWNSTREAM OF UPR
RDG. BY MONDAY EVE...RETURN FLOW AROUND ERN CONUS SFC HIPRES WILL
BE IN FULL FORCE...WITH SLY LOW-LVL JET DVLPG IN THE MS RVR VLY
RGN AHEAD OF A STRONG SHRTWV TROF. RESULT WILL BE STRONG NWD
ADVCTN OF MSTR AND WARMTH. AS A RESULT...TEMPS MON AND SPCLY TUE
WILL BE UNUSUALLY WARM...PSBLY AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEG F ABV CLIMO.

MEDIUM-RNG GUIDANCE IS QUITE CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING PASSAGE OF
THE STRONG SHRTWV TROF ON WED...ALTHOUGH TIMING IS UNCLEAR ON
WHETHER THAT PASSAGE WILL OCCUR WED MRNG OR WED AFTN. IN EITHER
CASE...POPS WERE INCRD ABV MEX NUMBERS AND GENLY IN LINE WITH HPC
NUMBERS DURING THE WED PD. A FURTHER INCR IN POPS MAY BE WARRANTED...
AS IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE MEASURABLE PCPN AT SOME TIME ON
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PATCHY MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE...NO
RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

88/KRAMAR






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231937
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
337 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. A WARMUP INTO THE 70S IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN A
WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...WHICH WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT INVERSIONS TO
SET UP. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. HOWEVER...IF MORE
UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST...TEMPERATURES MAY NOT DROP FAR ENOUGH TO BRING SURFACE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TOGETHER. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE
MENTION OF FOG IN THE FORECAST FROM EARLY MORNING UNTIL SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PASS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE
MUCH IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER AS THERE IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHG TO PREV FCST DURG THE WKEND. SHRTWV TROF WILL PASS
GENLY N OF FCST AREA...BARELY GRAZING THE RGN ON SAT AFTN AND EVE.
VERY LMTD MSTR WILL PRECLUDE SGFNT SHWR DVLPMT...BUT ALL GUIDANCE
DOES INDICATE SOME CVRG OF PCPN WITH THIS WAVE PASSAGE. SLGT CHC
POPS CONTAINED IN PREV FCST SEEMED REASONABLE...WITH ONLY MINOR
CHGS LMTD TO TIMING AND GEOGRAPHY. SFC HIPRES BUILDS INTO THE RGN
ON SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PREV DRY FCST WAS QUITE REASONABLE THRU TUE AS DRY HIPRES WILL
DOMINATE THE GRTLKS RGN...WHICH WILL BE LOCATED DOWNSTREAM OF UPR
RDG. BY MONDAY EVE...RETURN FLOW AROUND ERN CONUS SFC HIPRES WILL
BE IN FULL FORCE...WITH SLY LOW-LVL JET DVLPG IN THE MS RVR VLY
RGN AHEAD OF A STRONG SHRTWV TROF. RESULT WILL BE STRONG NWD
ADVCTN OF MSTR AND WARMTH. AS A RESULT...TEMPS MON AND SPCLY TUE
WILL BE UNUSUALLY WARM...PSBLY AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEG F ABV CLIMO.

MEDIUM-RNG GUIDANCE IS QUITE CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING PASSAGE OF
THE STRONG SHRTWV TROF ON WED...ALTHOUGH TIMING IS UNCLEAR ON
WHETHER THAT PASSAGE WILL OCCUR WED MRNG OR WED AFTN. IN EITHER
CASE...POPS WERE INCRD ABV MEX NUMBERS AND GENLY IN LINE WITH HPC
NUMBERS DURING THE WED PD. A FURTHER INCR IN POPS MAY BE WARRANTED...
AS IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE MEASURABLE PCPN AT SOME TIME ON
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PATCHY MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE...NO
RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

88/KRAMAR






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 231936
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
336 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO AND OVER THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS
AFTN. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE
MIDWEST/OH VALLEY. THIS HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT. PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS MOVED OUT OF THE LOCAL
AREA AND EXPECT DRY WX INTO TONIGHT. STILL A LOT OF CLOUDS ACROSS
THE EASTERN SHORE ATTM...WHILE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE SW. CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM SW TO NE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING
MAINLY CLEAR ALL AREAS BY DAYBREAK. DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FA THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET BEFORE DIMINISHING. LOWS
TONIGHT FROM NR 40 WEST TO NEAR 50 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL AREA
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS THE LOW TO OUR NE SKIRTS ATLANTIC CANADA.
SUNSHINE WILL BE PLENTIFUL BOTH DAYS WITH MILDER TEMPS IN THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONT
CROSSED THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL DO LITTLE
MORE THAN INCREASE WINDS FROM THE NW ON SUNDAY WHILE SUNSHINE
REMAINS PLENTIFUL. HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S NE TO LOW/MID 70S SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY
MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING
OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70 SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 70S BY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER IN THE PERIOD.
22/12Z GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE TRENDED SOMEWHAT WETTER AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
RATHER LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD WITH SOME LINGERING
3-4K FT CEILINGS PERSISTING ALONG THE COAST IVOF KSBY. DEEPENING LOW
PRES SYS NOW WELL EAST OF THE NY/NJ COASTLINE WILL CONT UP THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST EVENTUALLY LOCATING EAST OF MAINE BY FRIDAY
MORNING. PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN COMPRESSED TODAY...RESULTING IN
GUSTY N-NW WINDS TO AROUND 20-25 KT OVER THE EASTERN SHORE INTO
THU AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE WEST THU NGT AND FRIDAY.

VFR CONDS LOOK TO PERSIST FRIDAY AFTN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT NE OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST...AND WILL LIFT TO A POSITION OFF NEW ENGLAND BY
TONIGHT. LATEST OBS REFLECT N-NW WINDS 20-30KT AT MOST SITES, WITH
SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT FROM FENWICK ISLAND SOUTH TO CAPE
CHARLES LIGHT. GALES REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THIS AFTN...AND SHOULD BE REPLACED BY SCA THIS AFTN AS
PRES GRADIENT BEGINS TO SLACKEN. SUBSEQUENT SCAS ACROSS ALL OTHER
WATERS WILL REMAIN FLYING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTN/EVENING. SEAS ARE
AROUND 8-10 FT OUT NEAR 20NM...4-6FT SEAS NEARSHORE (3-5FT WAVES
IN THE BAY). AS SFC LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NE TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA
ON FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST OF THE WATERS,
ALLOWING SEAS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT BY FRIDAY AFTN.
ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
LATE SAT NGT/ERY SUN. HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY BUILDS OVER THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>638-656-
     658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...MAM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 231936
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
336 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO AND OVER THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS
AFTN. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE
MIDWEST/OH VALLEY. THIS HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT. PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS MOVED OUT OF THE LOCAL
AREA AND EXPECT DRY WX INTO TONIGHT. STILL A LOT OF CLOUDS ACROSS
THE EASTERN SHORE ATTM...WHILE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE SW. CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM SW TO NE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING
MAINLY CLEAR ALL AREAS BY DAYBREAK. DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FA THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET BEFORE DIMINISHING. LOWS
TONIGHT FROM NR 40 WEST TO NEAR 50 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL AREA
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS THE LOW TO OUR NE SKIRTS ATLANTIC CANADA.
SUNSHINE WILL BE PLENTIFUL BOTH DAYS WITH MILDER TEMPS IN THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONT
CROSSED THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL DO LITTLE
MORE THAN INCREASE WINDS FROM THE NW ON SUNDAY WHILE SUNSHINE
REMAINS PLENTIFUL. HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S NE TO LOW/MID 70S SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY
MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING
OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70 SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 70S BY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER IN THE PERIOD.
22/12Z GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE TRENDED SOMEWHAT WETTER AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
RATHER LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD WITH SOME LINGERING
3-4K FT CEILINGS PERSISTING ALONG THE COAST IVOF KSBY. DEEPENING LOW
PRES SYS NOW WELL EAST OF THE NY/NJ COASTLINE WILL CONT UP THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST EVENTUALLY LOCATING EAST OF MAINE BY FRIDAY
MORNING. PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN COMPRESSED TODAY...RESULTING IN
GUSTY N-NW WINDS TO AROUND 20-25 KT OVER THE EASTERN SHORE INTO
THU AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE WEST THU NGT AND FRIDAY.

VFR CONDS LOOK TO PERSIST FRIDAY AFTN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT NE OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST...AND WILL LIFT TO A POSITION OFF NEW ENGLAND BY
TONIGHT. LATEST OBS REFLECT N-NW WINDS 20-30KT AT MOST SITES, WITH
SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT FROM FENWICK ISLAND SOUTH TO CAPE
CHARLES LIGHT. GALES REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THIS AFTN...AND SHOULD BE REPLACED BY SCA THIS AFTN AS
PRES GRADIENT BEGINS TO SLACKEN. SUBSEQUENT SCAS ACROSS ALL OTHER
WATERS WILL REMAIN FLYING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTN/EVENING. SEAS ARE
AROUND 8-10 FT OUT NEAR 20NM...4-6FT SEAS NEARSHORE (3-5FT WAVES
IN THE BAY). AS SFC LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NE TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA
ON FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST OF THE WATERS,
ALLOWING SEAS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT BY FRIDAY AFTN.
ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
LATE SAT NGT/ERY SUN. HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY BUILDS OVER THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>638-656-
     658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...MAM







000
FXUS61 KPHI 231929
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
329 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT, REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD
TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, EVENTUALLY MOVING
OFFSHORE TUESDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO LIFT TO OUR NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT REACHING OUR AREA LATER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA TONIGHT, PASSING WELL TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

THERE WAS NO PRECIPITATION INDICATED IN NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND OR
DELAWARE AT MID AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE REMAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY IN
OUR FORECAST AREA WAS OVER NEW JERSEY WITH SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND THE POCONO REGION.

THE DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THE CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVERHEAD DURING THE NIGHT WITH SOME BREAKS
POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT READING TO COATESVILLE TO DELAWARE BAY
SOUTHWESTWARD.

THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CLOSE WITH TONIGHT`S MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. READINGS SHOULD FALL MAINLY INTO THE 40S WITH
A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY. GRADUAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, SOME THIN CIRRUS FROM
THE WEST MAY OVERSPREAD OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST
TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH.

THE INCREASING SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY SHOULD BRING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES UP TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR OCTOBER 24.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WILL START OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, AS
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE REACH THE NOVA SCOTIA AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES, AND OTHER THAN A FEW
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD, A QUIET NIGHT IS
EXPECTED. FOR THE MOST PART, MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS, WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S
FOR THE AREA, EXCEPT SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES.

FOR SATURDAY, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAYTIME;
ALTHOUGH, A COLD FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING
OUR AREA FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY EVENING. WE
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND
PLEASANT DAYTIME TEMPS INTO THE 60S FOR THE REGION, AND WE ALSO KEPT
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE PICTURE FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT AND TROUGH PASS THROUGH
THE AREA. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MINIMAL, THOUGH, AS THERE IS
LIMITED MOISTURE AND MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PASSES BY TO OUR
NORTH. GOING INTO SUNDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND
SOUTHEAST CANADA, WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST
AGAIN BUILDS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WE WILL BE PRECIP-FREE
WITH AMPLE SUN, BUT A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAKE FOR A
BREEZY SUNDAY, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE AND
GUSTING AT TIMES UPWARDS OF 25 MPH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD. THIS PATTERN
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MODERATING TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA, ESPECIALLY INTO TUESDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE
AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION. USING A BLEND OF WPC
GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY, WE EXPECT TUESDAY`S MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR THE FORECAST AREA. A RATHER PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE,
WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AND ITS
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. WE HAVE KEPT SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA; ALTHOUGH, MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO PASS BY TO OUR NORTH.
WITH THE FRONT OFFSHORE INTO THURSDAY, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MAY BUILD
TOWARD THE REGION. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A BIT COOLER WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE, MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS (WITH BASES AROUND 2000 TO 3000 FEET) ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER OUR REGION INTO THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY
AROUND KABE, KTTN AND KACY. OTHERWISE VFR CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED
THOUGH TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. GRADUAL CLEARING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY.

A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 12 TO 16 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S IS
FORECAST INTO THIS EVENING. A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 8 TO 12 KNOTS IS
EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT. THE NORTHWEST WIND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ON
FRIDAY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10
KNOTS.

SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED SHWRS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
EVE/NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT, MAINLY AFFECTING NORTHERN NJ AND THE
POCONOS.

SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT
15 TO 25 KNOTS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
UNDER 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND SPEEDS WERE DECREASING VERY SLOWLY THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL LET
THE GALE WARNING PLAY ITSELF OUT UNTIL 600 PM ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS
ARE MARGINAL AT MANY LOCATIONS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST
MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA AND AWAY FROM OUR REGION.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS REMAINED IN THE 6 TO 10 FOOT RANGE
AT MID AFTERNOON. THE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE SLOWLY DURING
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE AT
SUB-ADVISORY LEVELS AT THIS TIME, BUT SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE MET FOR OUR
COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING INTO
THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...IOVINO/KLINE
MARINE...IOVINO/KLINE







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231900
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
300 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT
IN A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE EARLY THIS EVENING
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES, WHICH WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT
INVERSIONS TO SET UP. WITH THAT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES,
HOWEVER, IF MORE UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST COMES THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST TEMPERATURES MAY NOT DROP FAR
ENOUGH TO BRING SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ENOUGH. FOR NOW HAVE
OPTED TO INCLUDE MENTION OF FOG IN THE FORECAST FROM EARLY MORNING
UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE FOR THESE AREAS. A SHORTWAVE WILL
BEGIN TO PASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER AS THERE IS
VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOR THE WEEKEND A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY CROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. DRY AND BREEZY SUNDAY
IN NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RIDGING WL ADVN EWD ACRS THE RGN INTO ERLY NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN
THE FCST. MDLS DIFFER ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A MID WK TROF. GENLY
SIDED CLOSE TO A WEAKER ENSEMBLE/WPC SOLN...KEEPING LOW SHWR CHCS
MID WK. WRM ADVCTN IS EXPD TO BRING ABV SEASONAL AVG TEMPS ERLY NXT
WK...WITH A RTN TO SEASONABLY COOL NMBRS AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE MID
WK TROF.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PATCHY MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, BUT IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

O
THE RGN.

.AVIATION /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING, BUT OTHERWISE, NO
RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231900
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
300 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT
IN A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE EARLY THIS EVENING
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES, WHICH WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT
INVERSIONS TO SET UP. WITH THAT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES,
HOWEVER, IF MORE UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST COMES THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST TEMPERATURES MAY NOT DROP FAR
ENOUGH TO BRING SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ENOUGH. FOR NOW HAVE
OPTED TO INCLUDE MENTION OF FOG IN THE FORECAST FROM EARLY MORNING
UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE FOR THESE AREAS. A SHORTWAVE WILL
BEGIN TO PASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER AS THERE IS
VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOR THE WEEKEND A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY CROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. DRY AND BREEZY SUNDAY
IN NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RIDGING WL ADVN EWD ACRS THE RGN INTO ERLY NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN
THE FCST. MDLS DIFFER ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A MID WK TROF. GENLY
SIDED CLOSE TO A WEAKER ENSEMBLE/WPC SOLN...KEEPING LOW SHWR CHCS
MID WK. WRM ADVCTN IS EXPD TO BRING ABV SEASONAL AVG TEMPS ERLY NXT
WK...WITH A RTN TO SEASONABLY COOL NMBRS AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE MID
WK TROF.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PATCHY MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, BUT IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

O
THE RGN.

.AVIATION /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING, BUT OTHERWISE, NO
RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KLWX 231846
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
246 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE DELMARVA WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST OF LONG
ISLAND TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND
REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
AREA...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE REGION...WITH NWLY WINDS
GUSTING 20-30KT. CLOUD SHIELD PERSISTS OVER ERN MD AND PORTIONS OF
NRN VA/WASHINGTON DC METRO...AND OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WHERE
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT. SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S OVER MOST LOCATIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

TIME OF PARTIAL ECLIPSE - 5:50 TO 6;15 PM. APPROX 1/4 OF SUN WL BE
COVERED IN THE SWRN SKY. CLDS SHOULD BE DIMINISHING DURG THIS
TIME...EXCEPT OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. BEST CHCS FOR VIEWING WL MOST LKLY BE IN THE WRN PART OF
THE CWA AND CENTRAL SHEN VLLY.

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY TONIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EASTWARD...REACHING EASTERN WV BY EARLY MORNING. GUSTS
EXPECTED TO END AFTER SUNSET AS BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA
TO ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN LOWS NEAR FREEZING IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND SOME
UPPER 30S IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY. THERE
WILL BE SOME LEFTOVER PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE COASTAL
LOW...WHICH WILL BE REACHING THE MARITIMES BY THE END OF THE
DAY...SO NW WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 20KT IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. WITH MORE SUNSHINE...SLIGHTLY HIGHER 1000-500MB
THICKNESS AND A PARTIAL DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT...HIGHS WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY...AND MID 50S TO
LOW 60S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL
HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE. DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY SOME UPSLOPE RAIN OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS SATURDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 60S FRIDAY...AND UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 IN SOME SPOTS SATURDAY. LOWS IN THE 40S FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE METRO AREAS...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN AREAS THAT
RADIATE WELL FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A RATHER BENIGN
PATTERN...WITH DEEP-LAYER RIDGING ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST COAST FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE A FEW FEATURES OF NOTE...1- A
PRESSURE SURGE/SECONDARY COLD FRONT SUNDAY ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY
WINDS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES BUT NO PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY...2- A
COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...AND 3- A POTENTIAL APPROACHING TROUGH
LATER IN THE WEEK.

ALL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT THEN DIVERGES AFTER THAT.

DEEP-LAYER /DRY/ NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVENT APPRECIABLE
MOISTURE FROM MOVING OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGS BY TO THE NORTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. THUS THE REFLECTION
AT THE SURFACE IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED
BY ANY PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AFTER THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND COULD BE GUSTY. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL USHER
IN A COOLER AIRMASS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO
FREEZING OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SLOPES. RIGHT NOW THE AREAS
THAT ARE MOST LIKELY TO FALL TO FREEZING HAVE ALREADY HAD THEIR
GROWING SEASON ENDED BY A FREEZE EARLIER THIS WEEK...BUT IF WINDS
DIE OFF QUICKER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST DURING THE EVENING MORE
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGHLANDS.

THE AIRMASS WILL REBOUND QUICKLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETS UP JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...SETTING UP A SOUTHWESTERLY
RETURN FLOW. MODELS/ENSEMBLES ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY BRING
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. HOWEVER THE BEST UPPER-LEVEL FORCING
PASSES OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SO AT THE MOMENT PRECIPITATION
WOULD LIKELY BE OF THE MORE SCATTERED VARIETY.

BEYOND THIS TIME IS WHEN THE MODELS DIVERGE...WITH NON-NCEP GUIDANCE
DEPICTING A FLAT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE EAST COAST...WHILE THE
GFS/SEVERAL GEFS MEMBERS HAVE A MUCH DEEPER TROUGH AND IMPENDING
CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC BY THE END OF NEXT THURSDAY. THE
UNCERTAINTY STEMS FROM SPREAD IN HOW GUIDANCE HANDLES A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA...WITH THE GFS
SLOWER/DEEPER RESULTING IN WEST COAST RIDGING/DEEPER EAST COAST
TROUGHING...AND THE NON-NCEP GUIDANCE A LITTLE QUICKER BRINGING THE
UPPER LOW CLOSER TO THE NORTHWEST COAST AND FLATTENING OUT THE
DOWNSTREAM FLOW RESULTING IN A LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS. THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE AND TELECONNECTIONS WOULD
TEND TO FAVOR A LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN AT THE MOMENT BUT THAT STRAYS
FROM THE PATTERN WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS. TIME WILL
BE THE BEST INDICATOR AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE PATTERN IS READY FOR
A CHANGE OR IF THE MID-ATLANTIC IS IN STORE FOR ANOTHER LARGE AND
SLOW-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND STORMINESS LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH NW WINDS GUSTING 20-30KT. GUSTS END AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING...WITH NW FLOW AROUND 10KT...LIGHTER AT KCHO.
VFR CONTINUES FRIDAY WITH NW WINDS 10-15KT...GUSTING TO 20KT LATE
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. VFR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH LIGHTER WINDS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN-MON NIGHT. GUSTY NW FLOW SUN UP TO 25
KTS POSSIBLE...DIMINISHING SUN NIGHT INTO MON AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS.


&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS...WITH GUSTS
20 TO 30KT. MODELS ARE ALSO POINTING TO A POTENTIAL BRIEF
INCREASE IN GUSTS EARLY THIS EVENING...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THAT POSSIBILITY. SCA EXPIRES AT MIDNIGHT FOR NORTHERN TIDAL
POTOMAC AND CHESAPEAKE BAY ZONES...BUT RENEWS FRIDAY MORNING AS
GUSTS AROUND 20KT ARE EXPECTED MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LIGHTER WINDS FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

A PRESSURE SURGE BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOLID
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS/SEAS SUBSIDE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE SOUTHERLY CHANNELING BETWEEN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE
AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY COULD RESULT IN
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ530-531-
     535-536-538>540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538>540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KCS
NEAR TERM...KCS
SHORT TERM...KCS
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...KCS/DFH
MARINE...KCS/DFH








000
FXUS61 KLWX 231846
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
246 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE DELMARVA WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST OF LONG
ISLAND TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND
REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
AREA...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE REGION...WITH NWLY WINDS
GUSTING 20-30KT. CLOUD SHIELD PERSISTS OVER ERN MD AND PORTIONS OF
NRN VA/WASHINGTON DC METRO...AND OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WHERE
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT. SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S OVER MOST LOCATIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

TIME OF PARTIAL ECLIPSE - 5:50 TO 6;15 PM. APPROX 1/4 OF SUN WL BE
COVERED IN THE SWRN SKY. CLDS SHOULD BE DIMINISHING DURG THIS
TIME...EXCEPT OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. BEST CHCS FOR VIEWING WL MOST LKLY BE IN THE WRN PART OF
THE CWA AND CENTRAL SHEN VLLY.

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY TONIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EASTWARD...REACHING EASTERN WV BY EARLY MORNING. GUSTS
EXPECTED TO END AFTER SUNSET AS BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA
TO ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN LOWS NEAR FREEZING IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND SOME
UPPER 30S IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY. THERE
WILL BE SOME LEFTOVER PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE COASTAL
LOW...WHICH WILL BE REACHING THE MARITIMES BY THE END OF THE
DAY...SO NW WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 20KT IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. WITH MORE SUNSHINE...SLIGHTLY HIGHER 1000-500MB
THICKNESS AND A PARTIAL DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT...HIGHS WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY...AND MID 50S TO
LOW 60S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL
HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE. DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY SOME UPSLOPE RAIN OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS SATURDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 60S FRIDAY...AND UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 IN SOME SPOTS SATURDAY. LOWS IN THE 40S FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE METRO AREAS...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN AREAS THAT
RADIATE WELL FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A RATHER BENIGN
PATTERN...WITH DEEP-LAYER RIDGING ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST COAST FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE A FEW FEATURES OF NOTE...1- A
PRESSURE SURGE/SECONDARY COLD FRONT SUNDAY ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY
WINDS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES BUT NO PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY...2- A
COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...AND 3- A POTENTIAL APPROACHING TROUGH
LATER IN THE WEEK.

ALL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT THEN DIVERGES AFTER THAT.

DEEP-LAYER /DRY/ NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVENT APPRECIABLE
MOISTURE FROM MOVING OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGS BY TO THE NORTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. THUS THE REFLECTION
AT THE SURFACE IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED
BY ANY PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AFTER THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND COULD BE GUSTY. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL USHER
IN A COOLER AIRMASS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO
FREEZING OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SLOPES. RIGHT NOW THE AREAS
THAT ARE MOST LIKELY TO FALL TO FREEZING HAVE ALREADY HAD THEIR
GROWING SEASON ENDED BY A FREEZE EARLIER THIS WEEK...BUT IF WINDS
DIE OFF QUICKER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST DURING THE EVENING MORE
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGHLANDS.

THE AIRMASS WILL REBOUND QUICKLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETS UP JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...SETTING UP A SOUTHWESTERLY
RETURN FLOW. MODELS/ENSEMBLES ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY BRING
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. HOWEVER THE BEST UPPER-LEVEL FORCING
PASSES OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SO AT THE MOMENT PRECIPITATION
WOULD LIKELY BE OF THE MORE SCATTERED VARIETY.

BEYOND THIS TIME IS WHEN THE MODELS DIVERGE...WITH NON-NCEP GUIDANCE
DEPICTING A FLAT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE EAST COAST...WHILE THE
GFS/SEVERAL GEFS MEMBERS HAVE A MUCH DEEPER TROUGH AND IMPENDING
CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC BY THE END OF NEXT THURSDAY. THE
UNCERTAINTY STEMS FROM SPREAD IN HOW GUIDANCE HANDLES A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA...WITH THE GFS
SLOWER/DEEPER RESULTING IN WEST COAST RIDGING/DEEPER EAST COAST
TROUGHING...AND THE NON-NCEP GUIDANCE A LITTLE QUICKER BRINGING THE
UPPER LOW CLOSER TO THE NORTHWEST COAST AND FLATTENING OUT THE
DOWNSTREAM FLOW RESULTING IN A LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS. THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE AND TELECONNECTIONS WOULD
TEND TO FAVOR A LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN AT THE MOMENT BUT THAT STRAYS
FROM THE PATTERN WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS. TIME WILL
BE THE BEST INDICATOR AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE PATTERN IS READY FOR
A CHANGE OR IF THE MID-ATLANTIC IS IN STORE FOR ANOTHER LARGE AND
SLOW-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND STORMINESS LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH NW WINDS GUSTING 20-30KT. GUSTS END AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING...WITH NW FLOW AROUND 10KT...LIGHTER AT KCHO.
VFR CONTINUES FRIDAY WITH NW WINDS 10-15KT...GUSTING TO 20KT LATE
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. VFR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH LIGHTER WINDS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN-MON NIGHT. GUSTY NW FLOW SUN UP TO 25
KTS POSSIBLE...DIMINISHING SUN NIGHT INTO MON AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS.


&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS...WITH GUSTS
20 TO 30KT. MODELS ARE ALSO POINTING TO A POTENTIAL BRIEF
INCREASE IN GUSTS EARLY THIS EVENING...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THAT POSSIBILITY. SCA EXPIRES AT MIDNIGHT FOR NORTHERN TIDAL
POTOMAC AND CHESAPEAKE BAY ZONES...BUT RENEWS FRIDAY MORNING AS
GUSTS AROUND 20KT ARE EXPECTED MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LIGHTER WINDS FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

A PRESSURE SURGE BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOLID
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS/SEAS SUBSIDE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE SOUTHERLY CHANNELING BETWEEN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE
AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY COULD RESULT IN
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ530-531-
     535-536-538>540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538>540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KCS
NEAR TERM...KCS
SHORT TERM...KCS
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...KCS/DFH
MARINE...KCS/DFH








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 231759
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
159 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEAST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. DRY COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO AND OVER THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...SFC LO PRES WAS CNTRD OFF THE NEW JERSEY CST.
THE LO WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS NE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND CST TODAY THRU FRI. MEANWHILE...HI PRES WILL GRADUALLY
BLD IN FM THE OH VALLEY. THE PRES GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES TODAY...ALLOWING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE. HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE CST WHERE GUSTS OF
30-35 MPH WILL OCCUR...15-25 MPH ELSEWHERE. WILL MAINTAIN A 20%
POP OVR THE ERN SHR INTO EARLY THIS AFTN...DRY WX ELSEWHERE. STILL
ENOUGH RESIDUAL LO LEVEL MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR THE
SKY TO AVERAGE OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY ENE TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
WSW. HIGHS RANGING FM THE UPR 50S TO ARND 60 ON THE LWR MD ERN
SHR...TO THE UPR 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND S CNTRL VA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR WSW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE TNGT...WITH LOWS
RANGING THRU THE 40S INTO THE LWR 50S. LO PRES CONTINUES TO MOVE
FARTHER NE AND AWAY FM THE LOCAL AREA ON FRI...ALLOWING FOR A
MAINLY SUNNY SKY...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND MILDER TEMPS. HIGHS
ON FRI RANGING FM THE MID 60S NE TO ARND 70 SW. HI PRES REMAINS
IN CONTROL ON SAT WITH DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE
UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY
MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING
OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70 SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 70S BY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER IN THE PERIOD.
22/12Z GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE TRENDED SOMEWHAT WETTER AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
RATHER LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD WITH SOME LINGERING
3-4K FT CEILINGS PERSISTING ALONG THE COAST IVOF KSBY. DEEPENING LOW
PRES SYS NOW WELL EAST OF THE NY/NJ COASTLINE WILL CONT UP THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST EVENTUALLY LOCATING EAST OF MAINE BY FRIDAY
MORNING. PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN COMPRESSED TODAY...RESULTING IN
GUSTY N-NW WINDS TO AROUND 20-25 KT OVER THE EASTERN SHORE INTO
THU AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE WEST THU NGT AND FRIDAY.

VFR CONDS LOOK TO PERSIST FRIDAY AFTN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT NE OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST...AND WILL LIFT TO A POSITION OFF NEW ENGLAND BY
TONIGHT. LATEST OBS REFLECT N-NW WINDS 20-30KT AT MOST SITES, WITH
SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT FROM FENWICK ISLAND SOUTH TO CAPE
CHARLES LIGHT. GALES REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THIS AFTN...AND SHOULD BE REPLACED BY SCA THIS AFTN AS
PRES GRADIENT BEGINS TO SLACKEN. SUBSEQUENT SCAS ACROSS ALL OTHER
WATERS WILL REMAIN FLYING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTN/EVENING. SEAS ARE
AROUND 8-10 FT OUT NEAR 20NM...4-6FT SEAS NEARSHORE (3-5FT WAVES
IN THE BAY). AS SFC LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NE TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA
ON FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST OF THE WATERS,
ALLOWING SEAS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT BY FRIDAY AFTN.
ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
LATE SAT NGT/ERY SUN. HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY BUILDS OVER THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HAVE ADDED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVY FOR THIS MORNING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE
OVER WORCESTER COUNTY. TIDAL DEPARTURES IN VICINITY OF OCEAN CITY
INLET WILL AVERAGE 1.5-2.0 FT ABOVE NORMAL DURING HIGH TIDE AGAIN
THURSDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS OCEAN CITY INLET
EXCEEDING MINOR DURING HIGH TIDE THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE WILL BE A FEW TENTHS HIGHER. WITH A NNW
WIND...THE MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE ALONG THE SHORELINES OF
ASSAWOMAN AND CHINCOTEAUGE BAYS...AND THE ADJACENT OCEAN INLETS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>638-656-
     658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MAM/DAP
MARINE...MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 231759
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
159 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEAST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. DRY COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO AND OVER THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...SFC LO PRES WAS CNTRD OFF THE NEW JERSEY CST.
THE LO WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS NE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND CST TODAY THRU FRI. MEANWHILE...HI PRES WILL GRADUALLY
BLD IN FM THE OH VALLEY. THE PRES GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES TODAY...ALLOWING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE. HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE CST WHERE GUSTS OF
30-35 MPH WILL OCCUR...15-25 MPH ELSEWHERE. WILL MAINTAIN A 20%
POP OVR THE ERN SHR INTO EARLY THIS AFTN...DRY WX ELSEWHERE. STILL
ENOUGH RESIDUAL LO LEVEL MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR THE
SKY TO AVERAGE OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY ENE TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
WSW. HIGHS RANGING FM THE UPR 50S TO ARND 60 ON THE LWR MD ERN
SHR...TO THE UPR 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND S CNTRL VA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR WSW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE TNGT...WITH LOWS
RANGING THRU THE 40S INTO THE LWR 50S. LO PRES CONTINUES TO MOVE
FARTHER NE AND AWAY FM THE LOCAL AREA ON FRI...ALLOWING FOR A
MAINLY SUNNY SKY...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND MILDER TEMPS. HIGHS
ON FRI RANGING FM THE MID 60S NE TO ARND 70 SW. HI PRES REMAINS
IN CONTROL ON SAT WITH DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE
UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY
MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING
OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70 SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 70S BY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER IN THE PERIOD.
22/12Z GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE TRENDED SOMEWHAT WETTER AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
RATHER LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD WITH SOME LINGERING
3-4K FT CEILINGS PERSISTING ALONG THE COAST IVOF KSBY. DEEPENING LOW
PRES SYS NOW WELL EAST OF THE NY/NJ COASTLINE WILL CONT UP THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST EVENTUALLY LOCATING EAST OF MAINE BY FRIDAY
MORNING. PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN COMPRESSED TODAY...RESULTING IN
GUSTY N-NW WINDS TO AROUND 20-25 KT OVER THE EASTERN SHORE INTO
THU AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE WEST THU NGT AND FRIDAY.

VFR CONDS LOOK TO PERSIST FRIDAY AFTN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT NE OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST...AND WILL LIFT TO A POSITION OFF NEW ENGLAND BY
TONIGHT. LATEST OBS REFLECT N-NW WINDS 20-30KT AT MOST SITES, WITH
SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT FROM FENWICK ISLAND SOUTH TO CAPE
CHARLES LIGHT. GALES REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THIS AFTN...AND SHOULD BE REPLACED BY SCA THIS AFTN AS
PRES GRADIENT BEGINS TO SLACKEN. SUBSEQUENT SCAS ACROSS ALL OTHER
WATERS WILL REMAIN FLYING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTN/EVENING. SEAS ARE
AROUND 8-10 FT OUT NEAR 20NM...4-6FT SEAS NEARSHORE (3-5FT WAVES
IN THE BAY). AS SFC LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NE TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA
ON FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST OF THE WATERS,
ALLOWING SEAS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT BY FRIDAY AFTN.
ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
LATE SAT NGT/ERY SUN. HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY BUILDS OVER THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HAVE ADDED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVY FOR THIS MORNING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE
OVER WORCESTER COUNTY. TIDAL DEPARTURES IN VICINITY OF OCEAN CITY
INLET WILL AVERAGE 1.5-2.0 FT ABOVE NORMAL DURING HIGH TIDE AGAIN
THURSDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS OCEAN CITY INLET
EXCEEDING MINOR DURING HIGH TIDE THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE WILL BE A FEW TENTHS HIGHER. WITH A NNW
WIND...THE MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE ALONG THE SHORELINES OF
ASSAWOMAN AND CHINCOTEAUGE BAYS...AND THE ADJACENT OCEAN INLETS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>638-656-
     658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MAM/DAP
MARINE...MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 231550
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1150 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT, THEN MOVES INTO THE NOVA SCOTIA
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TOWARD OUR
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. A
WARM FRONT MAY LIFT TO OUR NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, THEN A
COLD FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LOW WAS CENTERED ABOUT 225 MILES OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST
LATE THIS MORNING AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OUT TO SEA DURING
THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. THE LOW WILL LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR
REGION GRADUALLY.

IT SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY OVER OUR AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO ABOUT 30 MPH.
THE CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW AND THE LACK OF SUNSHINE WILL PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING ABOVE THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON.

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COVERED MUCH OF NEW JERSEY AND ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND DELAWARE LATE THIS MORNING.
AS THE LOW DRIFTS FARTHER AWAY, DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRAWN
INTO OUR REGION ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND THERE WILL BE A
DECREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
SKIES WILL START TO BECOME LESS CLOUDY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA, AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER
LOWS MAKE THEIR WAY TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

ALL RAIN SHOULD HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE REGION AND WE SHOULD REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE A BIT TONIGHT BUT WILL
NOT GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE, KEEPING A CHILL IN THE AIR.

LOWS WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 40S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING AWAY AND WEAKENING SOME
FRIDAY. THIS WILL TAKE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WITH IT AS IT TRACKS
NEAR NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DRIVES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, A BUILDING RIDGE OCCURS ACROSS THE PLAINS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL FORCE ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
DOWN INTO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER AS IT CLOSES OFF
IT LOOKS TO BE CENTERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT TIED TO
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THEN ARRIVES IN THE EAST
DURING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, HOWEVER WITH THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW
PATTERN THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRIVING EASTWARD
LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A RETURN FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
SHOULD SEND A WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH, THEN A COLD FRONT ARRIVES
LATER WEDNESDAY. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY,
THEN BLENDED THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE IN WITH CONTINUITY. SOME TWEAKS
WERE THEN MADE AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY...IT APPEARS DRYING WORKS IN AS THE CLOSED LOW AND
SURFACE LOW SHIFT FARTHER TO OUR NORTHEAST, AND THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN A DECREASE IN CLOUDS WITH TIME. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
INITIALLY WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH A DECREASE IS
ANTICIPATED QUICKLY BY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO EXPAND
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS
TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING, HOWEVER A LACK OF
DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN PERHAPS SOME CLOUDS FOR A
TIME.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH
SATURDAY, HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN
SHOULD RESULT IN PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH.
ANOTHER CLOSED LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER,
HOWEVER THIS IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INSTEAD OF
RIGHT OVER OUR AREA. THE 00Z NAM/ECMWF SHOW A MORE AMPLIFIED AND
SOUTHERLY SOLUTION WITH THE CLOSING LOW NEAR NEW ENGLAND, WHICH
MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE UPSTREAM. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND,
WHICH MEANS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DOWN INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A BREEZY DAY SHOULD OCCUR AS MIXING
DEEPENS /STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/ UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
DECREASING WINDS AND CHILLIER TEMPERATURES.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ARRIVES IN THE EAST
ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
WARMING CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY IN THE WAKE
OF A WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES
WERE MADE FOR THIS TIME FRAME, WITH JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE
NEW 00Z WPC GUIDANCE.

FOR WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE SHIFTING TO OUR
EAST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY. A COLD FRONT TIED TO THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE
ARRIVING INTO OUR AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF THE ENERGY MAY
SLIDE TO OUR NORTHWEST, HOWEVER THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT ITSELF. FOR NOW, WENT
WITH SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST FROM WEST
TO EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE FINAL AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW DROP INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST.

CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN DRYING DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO LIFT SOLIDLY INTO THE VFR
RANGE AT THAT TIME. THE VFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING.

A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 12 TO 16 KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED TO GUST TO
AROUND 25 KNOTS AT TIMES. THE WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH
A BIT FOR TONIGHT. HOWEVER, SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE ABOUT 8 TO 14 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KNOTS, THEN DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR A FEW
SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SOUTHWEST
WINDS SATURDAY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS, SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE WIND SPEEDS SUNDAY
INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS, BUT DIMINISH AT
NIGHT.

MONDAY...VFR. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6PM ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND
LOWER DELAWARE BAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
40 KNOTS ACROSS THE OCEAN AND LOWER BAY, GUSTS WILL BE CLOSER TO
30 KNOTS ACROSS THE UPPER BAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING
AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE LOSE THE GALE FORCE GUSTS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A TIME AFTER THE
GALES COME DOWN. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE GRADUALLY TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN THE SEAS
SUBSIDING. THEREFORE, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT
LEAST A PORTION OF THIS TIME FRAME.

SATURDAY...THE WINDS WINDS TURN MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT, BUT THEN SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST AT NIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE, WITH
THE CONDITIONS BEING JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA UNTIL LATER AT
NIGHT.

SUNDAY...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALONG WITH DECENT MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OCCURRING. THIS WILL ALSO BUILD THE
SEAS, HOWEVER WITH THE HIGHEST SETS FARTHER OFFSHORE GIVEN THE
WIND FLOW.

MONDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OCCURRED THIS MORNING ALONG THE NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE OCEANFRONT, ON THE BACK BAYS, ON RARITAN BAY
AND ON LOWER DELAWARE BAY. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH WATER AWAY FROM THE COAST AND NO TIDAL FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE COMING HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO







000
FXUS61 KLWX 231524
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1124 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE DELMARVA WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST OF LONG
ISLAND TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND
REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN WATERS
LATE THIS MORNING. WESTERN EDGE OF CLOUD SHIELD IS PRIMARILY NORTH
AND EAST OF THE POTOMAC RIVER...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. UPSLOPE CLOUDS NOTED ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THIS AREA FOR ISOLATED SHOWER POTENTIAL THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY BETWEEN 15-25 MPH...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
30 MPH. NWRLY WINDS WL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN TDA. WARMEST AREA
SHOULD BE THE CENTRAL SHEN VLLY. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FM THE M60S
NEAR CHO TO THE U50S ALONG THE M-D LN AND IN THE HIGHLANDS.

TIME OF PARTIAL ECLIPSE - 5:50 TO 6;15 PM. APPROX 1/4 OF SUN WL BE
COVERED IN THE SWRN SKY. CLDS SHOULD BE DIMINISHING DURG THIS
TIME. BEST CHCS FOR VIEWING WL MOST LKLY BE IN THE WRN PART OF THE
CWA AND CENTRAL SHEN VLLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES CONTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TNGT. CLDS SHOULD BE
DIMINISHING DURG THE EVE. WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE OVRNGT. TEMPS
RANGING FM THE M30S IN THE HIGHLANDS TO THE U40S IN THE CITIES.
MAJORITY OF THE AREA SHOULD DROP INTO THE LM40S.

FRI SHOULD BE THE BEGINNING OF SVRL VERY NICE DAYS. HIGH PRES BLDG
OVR THE AREA SHOULD LEAD TO M SUNNY SKIES...LGTR NWRLY WINDS.
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MU60S OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHILE THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT AWAY
FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE FRI...ANOTHER EMBEDDED UPPER TROUGH
WILL PASS OVERHEAD INTO EARLY SAT. THIS FEATURE WILL BE DRY...ONLY
BRINGING SOME SCATTERED BATCHES OF LOW-MID CLOUD DECKS OVER THE
AREA. AN STRONG UPPER JET WILL THEN CARRY THE NEXT CLIPPER-FEATURE
DOWN FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES INTO ERN PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND FROM
SAT INTO SUN. GUIDANCE MEMBERS IN THE GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THIS NEXT
WAVE AND THE LACK OF PRECIP EXPECTED TO AFFECT OUR AREA.

ALL THE WHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HANG ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH AND COVER MUCH OF THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL KEEP MODERATED AND
NEAR-AVG CONDITIONS FOR OUR REGION TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK AND
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE FORECAST
OVER THE MED RANGE WILL BE SUNDAY...W/ THE APPEARANCE OF THE BACK
END OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MAKE A SUBSIDENCE SWIPE ACROSS THE
REGION AND MIX-DOWN SOME OF GUSTY WINDS.

MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED RAIN W/ THIS FEATURE WILL OCCUR WELL TO OUR
NORTH AND/OR DISSIPATE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL PA BEFORE
REACHING THE MASON-DIXON LINE BOTH SAT AND SUN. POPS WERE KEPT OUT
OF THE AREA FOR THE NEAR TERM AND NOT INTRODUCED AGAIN TIL THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD W/ AN EXPECTED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
SOUTHEAST HIGH PRESSURE ZONE WILL ROLL ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND OFF
THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...PUSHED ALONG BY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDING ACROSS THE PLAINS. STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG
TERM MODEL DEPICTION OF THIS FEATURE`S PROGRESSION AND WHETHER IT
WILL BREAK OFF INTO SEPARATE WAVES OF WEAKEN AND LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST BEFORE MAKING MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON THE EAST COAST. LEANED
TOWARD THE EURO W/ THE SRN STREAM PIECE SPLITTING OFF AND EVENTUALLY
SLIDING A WEAKENING AND PRECIP-LIGHT COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA
MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD DECK WILL ERODE OVER
WASHINGTON DC LATE THIS MORNING...BUT PERSIST OVER BALTIMORE METRO
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR AT KMTN. WINDS
WL CONT TO BE GUSTY FM THE NW.

VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF SITES TNGT AND FRI.

A BREEZY AFTN ON SUN BUT NOT OVERLY SO...MAINLY A STEADY 15-25KT NW
BREEZE DURING THE DAYTIME HRS - DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL KEEP THE AREA`S WX QUIET OTHERWISE. THE NEXT WX-FEATURE
EXPECTED TO BE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING OVER PORTIONS OF CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL
POTOMAC HAS BEEN CONVERTED TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WIND GUSTS
HAVE BEEN LESS THAN 30KT THIS MORNING...EVEN UNDER BETTER LATE
MORNING MIXING CONDITIONS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT
FOR ALL WATERS. GUSTS IN THE LOWER BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC MAY REACH
30 KT AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE ALSO POINTING TO A
POTENTIAL BRIEF INCREASE IN GUSTS EARLY THIS EVENING...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT POSSIBILITY. WINDS SHOULD BE DIMINISHING
THIS EVE...BUT ONLY TO SCA LVLS. SCA SHOULD CONT FRI.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LARGELY BUILD OVER THE AREA AND KEEP A QUIET-WX
INFLUENCE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ALTHOUGH...A FAST-MOVING
UPPER WAVE WILL CARRY GUSTY WINDS ON SUN AFTN/EVE...SCA CONDS
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME...BUT NO OTHER HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ530-531-
     535-536-538>540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538>540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     541-543.

&&

$$
MARINE UPDATE...KCS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 231440
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1040 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE DELMARVA WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST OF LONG
ISLAND TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND
REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN WATERS
LATE THIS MORNING. WESTERN EDGE OF CLOUD SHIELD IS PRIMARILY NORTH
AND EAST OF THE POTOMAC RIVER...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. UPSLOPE CLOUDS NOTED ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THIS AREA FOR ISOLATED SHOWER POTENTIAL THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY BETWEEN 15-25 MPH...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
30 MPH. NWRLY WINDS WL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN TDA. WARMEST AREA
SHOULD BE THE CENTRAL SHEN VLLY. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FM THE M60S
NEAR CHO TO THE U50S ALONG THE M-D LN AND IN THE HIGHLANDS.

TIME OF PARTIAL ECLIPSE - 5:50 TO 6;15 PM. APPROX 1/4 OF SUN WL BE
COVERED IN THE SWRN SKY. CLDS SHOULD BE DIMINISHING DURG THIS
TIME. BEST CHCS FOR VIEWING WL MOST LKLY BE IN THE WRN PART OF THE
CWA AND CENTRAL SHEN VLLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES CONTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TNGT. CLDS SHOULD BE
DIMINISHING DURG THE EVE. WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE OVRNGT. TEMPS
RANGING FM THE M30S IN THE HIGHLANDS TO THE U40S IN THE CITIES.
MAJORITY OF THE AREA SHOULD DROP INTO THE LM40S.

FRI SHOULD BE THE BEGINNING OF SVRL VERY NICE DAYS. HIGH PRES BLDG
OVR THE AREA SHOULD LEAD TO M SUNNY SKIES...LGTR NWRLY WINDS.
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MU60S OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHILE THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT AWAY
FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE FRI...ANOTHER EMBEDDED UPPER TROUGH
WILL PASS OVERHEAD INTO EARLY SAT. THIS FEATURE WILL BE DRY...ONLY
BRINGING SOME SCATTERED BATCHES OF LOW-MID CLOUD DECKS OVER THE
AREA. AN STRONG UPPER JET WILL THEN CARRY THE NEXT CLIPPER-FEATURE
DOWN FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES INTO ERN PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND FROM
SAT INTO SUN. GUIDANCE MEMBERS IN THE GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THIS NEXT
WAVE AND THE LACK OF PRECIP EXPECTED TO AFFECT OUR AREA.

ALL THE WHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HANG ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH AND COVER MUCH OF THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL KEEP MODERATED AND
NEAR-AVG CONDITIONS FOR OUR REGION TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK AND
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE FORECAST
OVER THE MED RANGE WILL BE SUNDAY...W/ THE APPEARANCE OF THE BACK
END OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MAKE A SUBSIDENCE SWIPE ACROSS THE
REGION AND MIX-DOWN SOME OF GUSTY WINDS.

MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED RAIN W/ THIS FEATURE WILL OCCUR WELL TO OUR
NORTH AND/OR DISSIPATE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL PA BEFORE
REACHING THE MASON-DIXON LINE BOTH SAT AND SUN. POPS WERE KEPT OUT
OF THE AREA FOR THE NEAR TERM AND NOT INTRODUCED AGAIN TIL THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD W/ AN EXPECTED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
SOUTHEAST HIGH PRESSURE ZONE WILL ROLL ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND OFF
THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...PUSHED ALONG BY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDING ACROSS THE PLAINS. STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG
TERM MODEL DEPICTION OF THIS FEATURE`S PROGRESSION AND WHETHER IT
WILL BREAK OFF INTO SEPARATE WAVES OF WEAKEN AND LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST BEFORE MAKING MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON THE EAST COAST. LEANED
TOWARD THE EURO W/ THE SRN STREAM PIECE SPLITTING OFF AND EVENTUALLY
SLIDING A WEAKENING AND PRECIP-LIGHT COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA
MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD DECK WILL ERODE OVER
WASHINGTON DC LATE THIS MORNING...BUT PERSIST OVER BALTIMORE METRO
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR AT KMTN. WINDS
WL CONT TO BE GUSTY FM THE NW.

VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF SITES TNGT AND FRI.

A BREEZY AFTN ON SUN BUT NOT OVERLY SO...MAINLY A STEADY 15-25KT NW
BREEZE DURING THE DAYTIME HRS - DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL KEEP THE AREA`S WX QUIET OTHERWISE. THE NEXT WX-FEATURE
EXPECTED TO BE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS GUSTING INTO THE MU20 KT LVL ON MUCH OF THE WATERS ATTM.
PRES GRAD WL CONT ACROSS THE MID ATLC TDA. STILL SOME OPPORTUNITY
FOR GUSTS TO INCREASE W/ FURTHER LO LVL DESTABILIZATION...SO
KEEPING THE GALE FOR NOW...BUT IT MAY BE DROPPED IF GUSTS DO NOT
INCREASE FURTHER LATE THIS MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE DIMINISHING
THIS EVE...BUT ONLY TO SCA LVLS. SCA SHOULD CONT FRI.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LARGELY BUILD OVER THE AREA AND KEEP A QUIET-WX
INFLUENCE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ALTHOUGH...A FAST-MOVING
UPPER WAVE WILL CARRY GUSTY WINDS ON SUN AFTN/EVE...SCA CONDS
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME...BUT NO OTHER HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ530-531-
     535-536-538>540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538>540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ532>534-537-541-543.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     541-543.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...AVIATION AND MARINE UPDATES...KCS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 231440
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1040 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE DELMARVA WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST OF LONG
ISLAND TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND
REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN WATERS
LATE THIS MORNING. WESTERN EDGE OF CLOUD SHIELD IS PRIMARILY NORTH
AND EAST OF THE POTOMAC RIVER...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. UPSLOPE CLOUDS NOTED ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THIS AREA FOR ISOLATED SHOWER POTENTIAL THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY BETWEEN 15-25 MPH...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
30 MPH. NWRLY WINDS WL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN TDA. WARMEST AREA
SHOULD BE THE CENTRAL SHEN VLLY. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FM THE M60S
NEAR CHO TO THE U50S ALONG THE M-D LN AND IN THE HIGHLANDS.

TIME OF PARTIAL ECLIPSE - 5:50 TO 6;15 PM. APPROX 1/4 OF SUN WL BE
COVERED IN THE SWRN SKY. CLDS SHOULD BE DIMINISHING DURG THIS
TIME. BEST CHCS FOR VIEWING WL MOST LKLY BE IN THE WRN PART OF THE
CWA AND CENTRAL SHEN VLLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES CONTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TNGT. CLDS SHOULD BE
DIMINISHING DURG THE EVE. WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE OVRNGT. TEMPS
RANGING FM THE M30S IN THE HIGHLANDS TO THE U40S IN THE CITIES.
MAJORITY OF THE AREA SHOULD DROP INTO THE LM40S.

FRI SHOULD BE THE BEGINNING OF SVRL VERY NICE DAYS. HIGH PRES BLDG
OVR THE AREA SHOULD LEAD TO M SUNNY SKIES...LGTR NWRLY WINDS.
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MU60S OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHILE THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT AWAY
FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE FRI...ANOTHER EMBEDDED UPPER TROUGH
WILL PASS OVERHEAD INTO EARLY SAT. THIS FEATURE WILL BE DRY...ONLY
BRINGING SOME SCATTERED BATCHES OF LOW-MID CLOUD DECKS OVER THE
AREA. AN STRONG UPPER JET WILL THEN CARRY THE NEXT CLIPPER-FEATURE
DOWN FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES INTO ERN PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND FROM
SAT INTO SUN. GUIDANCE MEMBERS IN THE GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THIS NEXT
WAVE AND THE LACK OF PRECIP EXPECTED TO AFFECT OUR AREA.

ALL THE WHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HANG ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH AND COVER MUCH OF THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL KEEP MODERATED AND
NEAR-AVG CONDITIONS FOR OUR REGION TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK AND
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE FORECAST
OVER THE MED RANGE WILL BE SUNDAY...W/ THE APPEARANCE OF THE BACK
END OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MAKE A SUBSIDENCE SWIPE ACROSS THE
REGION AND MIX-DOWN SOME OF GUSTY WINDS.

MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED RAIN W/ THIS FEATURE WILL OCCUR WELL TO OUR
NORTH AND/OR DISSIPATE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL PA BEFORE
REACHING THE MASON-DIXON LINE BOTH SAT AND SUN. POPS WERE KEPT OUT
OF THE AREA FOR THE NEAR TERM AND NOT INTRODUCED AGAIN TIL THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD W/ AN EXPECTED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
SOUTHEAST HIGH PRESSURE ZONE WILL ROLL ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND OFF
THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...PUSHED ALONG BY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDING ACROSS THE PLAINS. STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG
TERM MODEL DEPICTION OF THIS FEATURE`S PROGRESSION AND WHETHER IT
WILL BREAK OFF INTO SEPARATE WAVES OF WEAKEN AND LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST BEFORE MAKING MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON THE EAST COAST. LEANED
TOWARD THE EURO W/ THE SRN STREAM PIECE SPLITTING OFF AND EVENTUALLY
SLIDING A WEAKENING AND PRECIP-LIGHT COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA
MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD DECK WILL ERODE OVER
WASHINGTON DC LATE THIS MORNING...BUT PERSIST OVER BALTIMORE METRO
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR AT KMTN. WINDS
WL CONT TO BE GUSTY FM THE NW.

VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF SITES TNGT AND FRI.

A BREEZY AFTN ON SUN BUT NOT OVERLY SO...MAINLY A STEADY 15-25KT NW
BREEZE DURING THE DAYTIME HRS - DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL KEEP THE AREA`S WX QUIET OTHERWISE. THE NEXT WX-FEATURE
EXPECTED TO BE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS GUSTING INTO THE MU20 KT LVL ON MUCH OF THE WATERS ATTM.
PRES GRAD WL CONT ACROSS THE MID ATLC TDA. STILL SOME OPPORTUNITY
FOR GUSTS TO INCREASE W/ FURTHER LO LVL DESTABILIZATION...SO
KEEPING THE GALE FOR NOW...BUT IT MAY BE DROPPED IF GUSTS DO NOT
INCREASE FURTHER LATE THIS MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE DIMINISHING
THIS EVE...BUT ONLY TO SCA LVLS. SCA SHOULD CONT FRI.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LARGELY BUILD OVER THE AREA AND KEEP A QUIET-WX
INFLUENCE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ALTHOUGH...A FAST-MOVING
UPPER WAVE WILL CARRY GUSTY WINDS ON SUN AFTN/EVE...SCA CONDS
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME...BUT NO OTHER HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ530-531-
     535-536-538>540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538>540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ532>534-537-541-543.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     541-543.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...AVIATION AND MARINE UPDATES...KCS








000
FXUS61 KPHI 231352
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
952 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT, THEN MOVES INTO THE NOVA SCOTIA
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TOWARD OUR
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. A
WARM FRONT MAY LIFT TO OUR NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, THEN A
COLD FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LOW WAS CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST
THIS MORNING AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OUT TO SEA DURING THE
BALANCE OF THE DAY. THE LOW WILL LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR
REGION GRADUALLY.

IT SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY OVER OUR AREA FOR TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST
WIND AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 OR 35 MPH. THE CHILLY
NORTHWEST FLOW AND THE LACK OF SUNSHINE WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES
FROM GETTING ABOVE THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON.

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WAS DROPPING INTO THE POCONOS, THE
LEHIGH VALLEY, BUCKS COUNTY AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AROUND 930 AM.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD AND IT WILL DISSIPATE
GRADUALLY. ONE FINAL AREA OF SHOWERS IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE HUDSON VALLEY DOWN INTO OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES FOR THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE IT
BEGINS TO DISSIPATE.

THE TREND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL BE A DECREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
SKIES WILL START TO BECOME LESS CLOUDY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA, AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER
LOWS MAKE THEIR WAY TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

ALL RAIN SHOULD HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE REGION AND WE SHOULD REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE A BIT TONIGHT BUT WILL
NOT GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE, KEEPING A CHILL IN THE AIR.

LOWS WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 40S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING AWAY AND WEAKENING SOME
FRIDAY. THIS WILL TAKE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WITH IT AS IT TRACKS
NEAR NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DRIVES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, A BUILDING RIDGE OCCURS ACROSS THE PLAINS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL FORCE ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
DOWN INTO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER AS IT CLOSES OFF
IT LOOKS TO BE CENTERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT TIED TO
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THEN ARRIVES IN THE EAST
DURING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, HOWEVER WITH THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW
PATTERN THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRIVING EASTWARD
LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A RETURN FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
SHOULD SEND A WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH, THEN A COLD FRONT ARRIVES
LATER WEDNESDAY. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY,
THEN BLENDED THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE IN WITH CONTINUITY. SOME TWEAKS
WERE THEN MADE AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY...IT APPEARS DRYING WORKS IN AS THE CLOSED LOW AND
SURFACE LOW SHIFT FARTHER TO OUR NORTHEAST, AND THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN A DECREASE IN CLOUDS WITH TIME. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
INITIALLY WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH A DECREASE IS
ANTICIPATED QUICKLY BY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO EXPAND
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS
TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING, HOWEVER A LACK OF
DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN PERHAPS SOME CLOUDS FOR A
TIME.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH
SATURDAY, HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN
SHOULD RESULT IN PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH.
ANOTHER CLOSED LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER,
HOWEVER THIS IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INSTEAD OF
RIGHT OVER OUR AREA. THE 00Z NAM/ECMWF SHOW A MORE AMPLIFIED AND
SOUTHERLY SOLUTION WITH THE CLOSING LOW NEAR NEW ENGLAND, WHICH
MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE UPSTREAM. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND,
WHICH MEANS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DOWN INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A BREEZY DAY SHOULD OCCUR AS MIXING
DEEPENS /STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/ UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
DECREASING WINDS AND CHILLIER TEMPERATURES.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ARRIVES IN THE EAST
ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
WARMING CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY IN THE WAKE
OF A WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES
WERE MADE FOR THIS TIME FRAME, WITH JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE
NEW 00Z WPC GUIDANCE.

FOR WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE SHIFTING TO OUR
EAST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY. A COLD FRONT TIED TO THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE
ARRIVING INTO OUR AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF THE ENERGY MAY
SLIDE TO OUR NORTHWEST, HOWEVER THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT ITSELF. FOR NOW, WENT
WITH SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST FROM WEST
TO EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE FINAL AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW DROP INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST.

CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN DRYING DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO LIFT SOLIDLY INTO THE VFR
RANGE AT THAT TIME. THE VFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING.

A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 12 TO 16 KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED TO GUST TO
25 TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. THE WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH A
BIT FOR TONIGHT. HOWEVER, SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ABOUT 8 TO 14 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KNOTS, THEN DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR A FEW
SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SOUTHWEST
WINDS SATURDAY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS, SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE WIND SPEEDS SUNDAY
INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS, BUT DIMINISH AT
NIGHT.

MONDAY...VFR. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6PM ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND
LOWER DELAWARE BAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
40 KNOTS ACROSS THE OCEAN AND LOWER BAY, GUSTS WILL BE CLOSER TO
30 KNOTS ACROSS THE UPPER BAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING
AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE LOSE THE GALE FORCE GUSTS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A TIME AFTER THE
GALES COME DOWN. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE GRADUALLY TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN THE SEAS
SUBSIDING. THEREFORE, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT
LEAST A PORTION OF THIS TIME FRAME.

SATURDAY...THE WINDS WINDS TURN MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT, BUT THEN SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST AT NIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE, WITH
THE CONDITIONS BEING JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA UNTIL LATER AT
NIGHT.

SUNDAY...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALONG WITH DECENT MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OCCURRING. THIS WILL ALSO BUILD THE
SEAS, HOWEVER WITH THE HIGHEST SETS FARTHER OFFSHORE GIVEN THE
WIND FLOW.

MONDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OCCURRED THIS MORNING ALONG THE NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE OCEANFRONT, ON THE BACK BAYS, ON RARITAN BAY
AND ON LOWER DELAWARE BAY. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH WATER AWAY FROM THE COAST AND NO TIDAL FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE COMING HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231344
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
944 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST AND DECREASE CLOUDS TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MINIMAL CHANGE NEEDED THIS MORNING AS THE CURRENT FORECAST ALIGNS
WELL WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS..

BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS MORNING WITH
CLEARING WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
FARTHER OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE RIDGES UNTIL
LATE DAY. TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WELL INTO THE 30S. REGION HAS PAST DATES
FOR ANY FROST OR FREEZE PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND A BIT MILDER
TEMPERATURES. FOR THE WEEKEND A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL
QUICKLY CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. DRY AND
BREEZY SUNDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING WL ADVN EWD ACRS THE RGN INTO ERLY NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN
THE FCST. MDLS DIFFER ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A MID WK TROF. GENLY
SIDED CLOSE TO A WEAKER ENSEMBLE/WPC SOLN...KEEPING LOW SHWR CHCS
MID WK. WRM ADVCTN IS EXPD TO BRING ABV SEASONAL AVG TEMPS ERLY NXT
WK...WITH A RTN TO SEASONABLY COOL NMBRS AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE MID
WK TROF.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SPOTTY MVFR CIGS WILL DIMINISH BY MID MORNING AS DRIER AIR MOVES
IN ALOFT OUT OF THE NORTH. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PATCHY MVFR
VISIIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, BUT IN GENERAL VFR
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THGE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK.

O
THE RGN.

.AVIATION /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PTCHY MVFR IN BR IS PSBL ERLY FRI MRNG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 231101
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
701 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT, THEN MOVES INTO THE NOVA SCOTIA
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TOWARD OUR
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. A WARM
FRONT MAY LIFT TO OUR NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, THEN A COLD
FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND THE SURFACE LOW ARE BOTH LOCATED OFFSHORE.
THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY.

ANOTHER RAW AND COLD FALL DAY IS IN STORE FOR OUR AREA TODAY.

CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TODAY. THE CLOUDS WILL START TO CLEAR A BIT TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON FROM
THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE LOWS LIFT NORTH. HOWEVER, IT
WILL NOT HELP MUCH TODAY AS WE ARE NOT LIKELY TO SEE THE SUN.

THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS PRETTY TIGHT. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND WILL BE
AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL START TO SUBSIDE TOWARD EVENING.

RAIN IS STARTING TO ROTATE BACK INTO THE REGION AND WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE OFF AND ON SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH A
FEW STEADIER SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE.

ANOTHER COLD DAY ON TAP AS WE DON`T SEE MUCH SUN AND WITH THE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS IT WILL BE HARD TO GET TEMPERATURES TO RISE ALL THAT
MUCH. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE 50S TODAY WITH SOME 40S
ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
SKIES WILL START TO BECOME LESS CLOUDY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA, AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER
LOWS MAKE THEIR WAY TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

ALL RAIN SHOULD HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE REGION AND WE SHOULD REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE A BIT TONIGHT BUT WILL
NOT GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE, KEEPING A CHILL IN THE AIR.

LOWS WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 40S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING AWAY AND WEAKENING SOME
FRIDAY. THIS WILL TAKE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WITH IT AS IT TRACKS
NEAR NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DRIVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, A BUILDING RIDGE OCCURS ACROSS THE PLAINS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL FORCE ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
DOWN INTO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER AS IT CLOSES OFF
IT LOOKS TO BE CENTERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT TIED TO
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THEN ARRIVES IN THE EAST DURING
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, HOWEVER WITH THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN THE
NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRIVING EASTWARD LATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. A RETURN FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD SEND A WARM
FRONT TO OUR NORTH, THEN A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER WEDNESDAY. WE
USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN BLENDED THE 00Z
WPC GUIDANCE IN WITH CONTINUITY. SOME TWEAKS WERE THEN MADE AFTER
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY...IT APPEARS DRYING WORKS IN AS THE CLOSED LOW AND
SURFACE LOW SHIFT FARTHER TO OUR NORTHEAST, AND THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN A DECREASE IN CLOUDS WITH TIME. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
INITIALLY WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH A DECREASE IS
ANTICIPATED QUICKLY BY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO EXPAND
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS
TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING, HOWEVER A LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN PERHAPS SOME CLOUDS FOR A TIME.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH
SATURDAY, HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD RESULT
IN PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH. ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
IS THEN EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER, HOWEVER THIS IS FORECAST
TO TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INSTEAD OF RIGHT OVER OUR AREA. THE 00Z
NAM/ECMWF SHOW A MORE AMPLIFIED AND SOUTHERLY SOLUTION WITH THE
CLOSING LOW NEAR NEW ENGLAND, WHICH MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING THE
AMPLIFYING RIDGE UPSTREAM. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO
INTENSIFY AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND, WHICH MEANS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A BREEZY
DAY SHOULD OCCUR AS MIXING DEEPENS /STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES/ UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO
BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING WINDS AND CHILLIER
TEMPERATURES.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ARRIVES IN THE EAST
ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
WARMING CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY IN THE WAKE
OF A WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES
WERE MADE FOR THIS TIME FRAME, WITH JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW
00Z WPC GUIDANCE.

FOR WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE SHIFTING TO OUR
EAST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY. A COLD FRONT TIED TO THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE
ARRIVING INTO OUR AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF THE ENERGY MAY
SLIDE TO OUR NORTHWEST, HOWEVER THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BROKEN
BAND OF SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT ITSELF. FOR NOW, WENT WITH
SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT THE TERMINALS. RAIN IS
SPOTTY AND STARTING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS WILL BE ON AGAIN/OFF AGAIN THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT.

CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THIS MORNING BUT WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT AND SHOULD BECOME VFR THIS AFTERNOON AT THE TERMINALS.

THE WINDS ARE OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SUSTAINED
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 12 TO 18 KNOTS WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30
KNOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE GUSTINESS SHOULD START TO SUBSIDE
LATER THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
20 KNOTS, THEN DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR A FEW
SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SOUTHWEST WINDS
SATURDAY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS, SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE WIND SPEEDS SUNDAY INCREASE TO NEAR
15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS, BUT DIMINISH AT NIGHT.

MONDAY...VFR. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6PM ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND
LOWER DELAWARE BAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
UPPER DELAWARE BAY.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40
KNOTS ACROSS THE OCEAN AND LOWER BAY, GUSTS WILL BE CLOSER TO 30
KNOTS ACROSS THE UPPER BAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND IT
LOOKS LIKE WE LOSE THE GALE FORCE GUSTS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A TIME AFTER THE GALES COME
DOWN. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE GRADUALLY TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN THE SEAS SUBSIDING.
THEREFORE, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THIS TIME FRAME.

SATURDAY...THE WINDS WINDS TURN MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT, BUT THEN SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST AT NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE, WITH THE
CONDITIONS BEING JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA UNTIL LATER AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALONG WITH DECENT MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OCCURRING. THIS WILL ALSO BUILD THE SEAS,
HOWEVER WITH THE HIGHEST SETS FARTHER OFFSHORE GIVEN THE WIND FLOW.

MONDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RUNNING HIGH DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE STORM OFF THE
COAST AND THE APPROACHING NEW MOON. HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING WILL BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN YESTERDAYS HIGH TIDE. HOWEVER, WITH A STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING TODAY, WE SHOULD SEE THE WATER START
TO PUSH AWAY FROM THE COAST AS OPPOSED TO PUSHING TOWARDS THE
COAST.

RIGHT NOW THE ONLY FLOODING WE ARE EXPECTING WOULD BE ISOLATED MINOR
FLOODING BELOW OUR ESTABLISHED THRESHOLDS NEEDED FOR AN ADVISORY. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TIDES AND ISSUE AN ADVISORY IF NEEDED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MEOLA








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 231027
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
627 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEAST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. DRY COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO AND OVER THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...SFC LO PRES WAS CNTRD OFF THE NEW JERSEY CST.
THE LO WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS NE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND CST TODAY THRU FRI. MEANWHILE...HI PRES WILL GRADUALLY
BLD IN FM THE OH VALLEY. THE PRES GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES TODAY...ALLOWING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE. HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE CST WHERE GUSTS OF
30-35 MPH WILL OCCUR...15-25 MPH ELSEWHERE. WILL MAINTAIN A 20%
POP OVR THE ERN SHR INTO EARLY THIS AFTN...DRY WX ELSEWHERE. STILL
ENOUGH RESIDUAL LO LEVEL MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR THE
SKY TO AVERAGE OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY ENE TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
WSW. HIGHS RANGING FM THE UPR 50S TO ARND 60 ON THE LWR MD ERN
SHR...TO THE UPR 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND S CNTRL VA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR WSW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE TNGT...WITH LOWS
RANGING THRU THE 40S INTO THE LWR 50S. LO PRES CONTINUES TO MOVE
FARTHER NE AND AWAY FM THE LOCAL AREA ON FRI...ALLOWING FOR A
MAINLY SUNNY SKY...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND MILDER TEMPS. HIGHS
ON FRI RANGING FM THE MID 60S NE TO ARND 70 SW. HI PRES REMAINS
IN CONTROL ON SAT WITH DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE
UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY
MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING
OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70 SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 70S BY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER IN THE PERIOD.
22/12Z GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE TRENDED SOMEWHAT WETTER AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
RATHER LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDS OVER REGIONAL TERMINALS THIS MORNING, WITH ONLY SOME
PATCHY MVFR LINGERING ALONG THE COAST IVOF KSBY WITH CIGS ~3KFT.
DEEPENING LOW PRES SYS NOW WELL OF THE NY/NJ COASTLINE...AND WILL
CONT UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD...EVENTUALLY LOCATING OFF THE COAST OF MAINE BY FRIDAY
MORNING. CONDS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY, WITH VFR
CONDS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH FRI MORNING.
PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN COMPRESSED TODAY...RESULTING IN GUSTY
N-NW WINDS TO AROUND 20-25 KT OVER THE EASTERN SHORE INTO THU
AFTN.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE WEST THU NGT AND FRIDAY. VFR CONDS LOOK TO PERSIST FRIDAY
AND THROUGH THW WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFTS NE OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST THIS MORNING...AND WILL LIFT TO A POSITION OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT. LATEST OBS REFLECT N-NW WINDS 20-30KT, WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT. GALES REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND THE MOUTH OF CHES BAY THROUGH THIS AFTN...AND SHOULD BE REPLACED
BY SCA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS AFTN AS PRES GRADIENT BEGINS TO
SLACKEN. EXPECT SUBSEQUENT SCAS WL REMAIN FLYING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTN/EVENING. SEAS HAVE INCREASED TO 8-10 FT OUT NEAR 20NM...4-6FT
SEAS NEARSHORE (3-5FT WAVES IN THE BAY). AS SFC LOW CONTINUES TO
LIFT NE TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA ON FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO
THE WEST OF THE WATERS, ALLOWING SEAS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 5
FT BY FRIDAY AFTN. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF
SCA CONDITIONS LATE SAT NGT/ERY SUN. HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY BUILDS
OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HAVE ADDED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVY FOR THIS MORNING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE
OVER WORCESTER COUNTY. TIDAL DEPARTURES IN VICINITY OF OCEAN CITY
INLET WILL AVERAGE 1.5-2.0 FT ABOVE NORMAL DURING HIGH TIDE AGAIN
THURSDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS OCEAN CITY INLET
EXCEEDING MINOR DURING HIGH TIDE THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE WILL BE A FEW TENTHS HIGHER. WITH A NNW
WIND...THE MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE ALONG THE SHORELINES OF
ASSAWOMAN AND CHINCOTEAUGE BAYS...AND THE ADJACENT OCEAN INLETS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ024-
     025.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>633.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231025
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
625 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST AND DECREASE CLOUDS TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING ADJUSTMENT TO SKY GRIDS AND WINDS. LARGER BREAKS ON
SAT PIX ACROSS EASTERN OHIO TO THE WV PANHANDLE AND HAVE BEGUN THE
CLEARING PROCESS A BIT EARLIER THOSE AREAS. ALSO ADJUSTED WINDS TO
DIMINISH MORE QUICKLY TOWARD SUNSET. PREVIOUS BELOW.


BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS MORNING WITH
CLEARING WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
FARTHER OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE RIDGES UNTIL
LATE DAY. TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WELL INTO THE 30S. REGION HAS PAST DATES
FOR ANY FROST OR FREEZE PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND A BIT MILDER
TEMPERATURES. FOR THE WEEKEND A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL
QUICKLY CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. DRY AND
BREEZY SUNDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING WL ADVN EWD ACRS THE RGN INTO ERLY NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN
THE FCST. MDLS DIFFER ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A MID WK TROF. GENLY
SIDED CLOSE TO A WEAKER ENSEMBLE/WPC SOLN...KEEPING LOW SHWR CHCS
MID WK. WRM ADVCTN IS EXPD TO BRING ABV SEASONAL AVG TEMPS ERLY NXT
WK...WITH A RTN TO SEASONABLY COOL NMBRS AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE MID
WK TROF.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR SC...WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND ISOLD IFR...WL CONT IN N FLOW
ARND E COAST LOW PRES. THE CIGS SHOULD GRDLY ERODE LTR THIS MRNG
INTO ERLY AFTN AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN AS THE LOW DRIFTS
NE...RTNG VFR CONDS TO THE RGN.

.AVIATION /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PTCHY MVFR IN BR IS PSBL ERLY FRI MRNG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230944
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
544 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST AND DECREASE CLOUDS TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING ADJUSTMENT TO SKY GRIDS AND WINDS. LARGER BREAKS ON
SAT PIX ACROSS EASTERN OHIO TO THE WV PANHANDLE AND HAVE BEGUN THE
CLEARING PROCESS A BIT EARLIER THOSE AREAS. ALSO ADJUSTED WINDS TO
DIMINISH MORE QUICKLY TOWARD SUNSET. PREVIOUS BELOW.


BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS MORNING WITH
CLEARING WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
FARTHER OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE RIDGES UNTIL
LATE DAY. TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WELL INTO THE 30S. REGION HAS PAST DATES
FOR ANY FROST OR FREEZE PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND A BIT MILDER
TEMPERATURES. FOR THE WEEKEND A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL
QUICKLY CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. DRY AND
BREEZY SUNDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING WL ADVN EWD ACRS THE RGN INTO ERLY NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN
THE FCST. MDLS DIFFER ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A MID WK TROF. GENLY
SIDED CLOSE TO A WEAKER ENSEMBLE/WPC SOLN...KEEPING LOW SHWR CHCS
MID WK. WRM ADVCTN IS EXPD TO BRING ABV SEASONAL AVG TEMPS ERLY NXT
WK...WITH A RTN TO SEASONABLY COOL NMBRS AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE MID
WK TROF.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR SC...WITH AREAS OF MVFR SC...WL CONT IN N FLOW ARND E COAST LOW
PRES. THE CIGS SHOULD GRDLY ERODE LTR THIS MRNG AS DRIER AIR BEGINS
TO MOVE IN AS THE LOW DRIFTS NE...RTNG VFR CONDS TO THE RGN.

.AVIATION /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230944
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
544 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST AND DECREASE CLOUDS TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING ADJUSTMENT TO SKY GRIDS AND WINDS. LARGER BREAKS ON
SAT PIX ACROSS EASTERN OHIO TO THE WV PANHANDLE AND HAVE BEGUN THE
CLEARING PROCESS A BIT EARLIER THOSE AREAS. ALSO ADJUSTED WINDS TO
DIMINISH MORE QUICKLY TOWARD SUNSET. PREVIOUS BELOW.


BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS MORNING WITH
CLEARING WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
FARTHER OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE RIDGES UNTIL
LATE DAY. TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WELL INTO THE 30S. REGION HAS PAST DATES
FOR ANY FROST OR FREEZE PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND A BIT MILDER
TEMPERATURES. FOR THE WEEKEND A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL
QUICKLY CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. DRY AND
BREEZY SUNDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING WL ADVN EWD ACRS THE RGN INTO ERLY NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN
THE FCST. MDLS DIFFER ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A MID WK TROF. GENLY
SIDED CLOSE TO A WEAKER ENSEMBLE/WPC SOLN...KEEPING LOW SHWR CHCS
MID WK. WRM ADVCTN IS EXPD TO BRING ABV SEASONAL AVG TEMPS ERLY NXT
WK...WITH A RTN TO SEASONABLY COOL NMBRS AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE MID
WK TROF.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR SC...WITH AREAS OF MVFR SC...WL CONT IN N FLOW ARND E COAST LOW
PRES. THE CIGS SHOULD GRDLY ERODE LTR THIS MRNG AS DRIER AIR BEGINS
TO MOVE IN AS THE LOW DRIFTS NE...RTNG VFR CONDS TO THE RGN.

.AVIATION /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPHI 230756
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
356 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT, THEN MOVES INTO THE NOVA SCOTIA
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TOWARD OUR
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. A WARM
FRONT MAY LIFT TO OUR NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, THEN A COLD
FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND THE SURFACE LOW ARE BOTH LOCATED OFFSHORE.
THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY.

ANOTHER RAW AND COLD FALL DAY IS IN STORE FOR OUR AREA TODAY.

CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TODAY. THE CLOUDS WILL START TO CLEAR A BIT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO
THE NORTHEAST AS THE LOWS LIFT NORTH. HOWEVER, IT WILL NOT HELP MUCH
TODAY AS WE ARE NOT LIKELY TO SEE THE SUN.

THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS PRETTY TIGHT. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND WILL BE
AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL START TO SUBSIDE TOWARD EVENING.

RAIN HAS LARGELY ENDED AS A DRY SLOT, ROTATING AROUND THE COASTAL
LOW, HAS ENTERED OUR AREA. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE
REGION THROUGH TODAY BUT SHOULD MOSTLY END BY THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY
LIGHT RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH A FEW STEADIER SHOWERS REMAIN
POSSIBLE.

ANOTHER COLD DAY ON TAP AS WE DON`T SEE MUCH SUN AND WITH THE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS IT WILL BE HARD TO GET TEMPERATURES TO RISE ALL THAT
MUCH. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE 50S TODAY WITH SOME 40S
ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
SKIES WILL START TO BECOME LESS CLOUDY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA, AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER
LOWS MAKE THEIR WAY TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

ALL RAIN SHOULD HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE REGION AND WE SHOULD REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE A BIT TONIGHT BUT WILL
NOT GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE, KEEPING A CHILL IN THE AIR.

LOWS WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 40S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING AWAY AND WEAKENING SOME
FRIDAY. THIS WILL TAKE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WITH IT AS IT TRACKS
NEAR NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DRIVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, A BUILDING RIDGE OCCURS ACROSS THE PLAINS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL FORCE ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
DOWN INTO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER AS IT CLOSES OFF
IT LOOKS TO BE CENTERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT TIED TO
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THEN ARRIVES IN THE EAST DURING
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, HOWEVER WITH THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN THE
NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRIVING EASTWARD LATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. A RETURN FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD SEND A WARM
FRONT TO OUR NORTH, THEN A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER WEDNESDAY. WE
USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN BLENDED THE 00Z
WPC GUIDANCE IN WITH CONTINUITY. SOME TWEAKS WERE THEN MADE AFTER
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY...IT APPEARS DRYING WORKS IN AS THE CLOSED LOW AND
SURFACE LOW SHIFT FARTHER TO OUR NORTHEAST, AND THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN A DECREASE IN CLOUDS WITH TIME. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
INITIALLY WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH A DECREASE IS
ANTICIPATED QUICKLY BY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO EXPAND
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS
TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING, HOWEVER A LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN PERHAPS SOME CLOUDS FOR A TIME.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH
SATURDAY, HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD RESULT
IN PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH. ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
IS THEN EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER, HOWEVER THIS IS FORECAST
TO TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INSTEAD OF RIGHT OVER OUR AREA. THE 00Z
NAM/ECMWF SHOW A MORE AMPLIFIED AND SOUTHERLY SOLUTION WITH THE
CLOSING LOW NEAR NEW ENGLAND, WHICH MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING THE
AMPLIFYING RIDGE UPSTREAM. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO
INTENSIFY AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND, WHICH MEANS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A BREEZY
DAY SHOULD OCCUR AS MIXING DEEPENS /STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES/ UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO
BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING WINDS AND CHILLIER
TEMPERATURES.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ARRIVES IN THE EAST
ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
WARMING CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY IN THE WAKE
OF A WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES
WERE MADE FOR THIS TIME FRAME, WITH JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW
00Z WPC GUIDANCE.

FOR WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE SHIFTING TO OUR
EAST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY. A COLD FRONT TIED TO THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE
ARRIVING INTO OUR AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF THE ENERGY MAY
SLIDE TO OUR NORTHWEST, HOWEVER THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BROKEN
BAND OF SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT ITSELF. FOR NOW, WENT WITH
SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT THE TERMINALS. RAIN IS
FAIRLY LIGHT AT THIS TIME AS A DRY SLOT HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION.
THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THIS
MORNING, ENDING BY THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT.

CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THIS MORNING BUT WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT AND SHOULD BECOME VFR BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AT THE
TERMINALS.

THE WINDS ARE OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SUSTAINED
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 12 TO 18 KNOTS WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30
KNOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE GUSTINESS SHOULD START TO SUBSIDE
LATER THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
20 KNOTS, THEN DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR A FEW
SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SOUTHWEST WINDS
SATURDAY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS, SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE WIND SPEEDS SUNDAY INCREASE TO NEAR
15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS, BUT DIMINISH AT NIGHT.

MONDAY...VFR. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6PM ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND
LOWER DELAWARE BAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
UPPER DELAWARE BAY.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40
KNOTS ACROSS THE OCEAN AND LOWER BAY, GUSTS WILL BE CLOSER TO 30
KNOTS ACROSS THE UPPER BAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND IT
LOOKS LIKE WE LOSE THE GALE FORCE GUSTS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A TIME AFTER THE GALES COME
DOWN. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE GRADUALLY TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN THE SEAS SUBSIDING.
THEREFORE, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THIS TIME FRAME.

SATURDAY...THE WINDS WINDS TURN MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT, BUT THEN SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST AT NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE, WITH THE
CONDITIONS BEING JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA UNTIL LATER AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALONG WITH DECENT MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OCCURRING. THIS WILL ALSO BUILD THE SEAS,
HOWEVER WITH THE HIGHEST SETS FARTHER OFFSHORE GIVEN THE WIND FLOW.

MONDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RUNNING HIGH DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE STORM OFF THE
COAST AND THE APPROACHING NEW MOON. HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING WILL BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN YESTERDAYS HIGH TIDE. HOWEVER, WITH A STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING TODAY, WE SHOULD SEE THE WATER START
TO PUSH AWAY FROM THE COAST AS OPPOSED TO PUSHING TOWARDS THE
COAST.

RIGHT NOW THE ONLY FLOODING WE ARE EXPECTING WOULD BE ISOLATED MINOR
FLOODING BELOW OUR ESTABLISHED THRESHOLDS NEEDED FOR AN ADVISORY. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TIDES AND ISSUE AN ADVISORY IF NEEDED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MEOLA





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230746
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
346 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEAST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. DRY COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO AND OVER THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...SFC LO PRES WAS CNTRD OFF THE NEW JERSEY CST.
THE LO WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS NE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND CST TODAY THRU FRI. MEANWHILE...HI PRES WILL GRADUALLY
BLD IN FM THE OH VALLEY. THE PRES GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES TODAY...ALLOWING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE. HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE CST WHERE GUSTS OF
30-35 MPH WILL OCCUR...15-25 MPH ELSEWHERE. WILL MAINTAIN A 20%
POP OVR THE ERN SHR INTO EARLY THIS AFTN...DRY WX ELSEWHERE. STILL
ENOUGH RESIDUAL LO LEVEL MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR THE
SKY TO AVERAGE OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY ENE TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
WSW. HIGHS RANGING FM THE UPR 50S TO ARND 60 ON THE LWR MD ERN
SHR...TO THE UPR 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND S CNTRL VA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR WSW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE TNGT...WITH LOWS
RANGING THRU THE 40S INTO THE LWR 50S. LO PRES CONTINUES TO MOVE
FARTHER NE AND AWAY FM THE LOCAL AREA ON FRI...ALLOWING FOR A
MAINLY SUNNY SKY...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND MILDER TEMPS. HIGHS
ON FRI RANGING FM THE MID 60S NE TO ARND 70 SW. HI PRES REMAINS
IN CONTROL ON SAT WITH DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE
UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY
MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING
OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70 SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 70S BY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER IN THE PERIOD.
22/12Z GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE TRENDED SOMEWHAT WETTER AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
RATHER LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDS OVER REGIONAL TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH AREAS
OF MVFR LINGERING ALONG THE COAST WITH CIGS ~3KFT. DEEPENING LOW
PRES SYS NOW WELL OF THE NY/NJ COAST.LINE...AND WILL CONT UP THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...EVENTUALLY
LOCATING OFF THE COAST OF MAINE BY FRI MORNING. CONDS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY, WITH VFR CONDS TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH FRI MORNING. PRES GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN COMPRESSED TODAY...RESULTING IN GUSTY N-NW WINDS TO AROUND
20-25 KT OVER THE EASTERN SHORE INTO THU AFTN.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE WEST THU NGT AND FRIDAY. VFR CONDS LOOK TO PERSIST FRIDAY
AND THROUGH THW WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFTS NE OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST THIS MORNING...AND WILL LIFT TO A POSITION OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT. LATEST OBS REFLECT N-NW WINDS 20-30KT, WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT. GALES REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND THE MOUTH OF CHES BAY THROUGH THIS AFTN...AND SHOULD BE REPLACED
BY SCA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS AFTN AS PRES GRADIENT BEGINS TO
SLACKEN. EXPECT SUBSEQUENT SCAS WL REMAIN FLYING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTN/EVENING. SEAS HAVE INCREASED TO 8-10 FT OUT NEAR 20NM...4-6FT
SEAS NEARSHORE (3-5FT WAVES IN THE BAY). AS SFC LOW CONTINUES TO
LIFT NE TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA ON FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO
THE WEST OF THE WATERS, ALLOWING SEAS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 5
FT BY FRIDAY AFTN. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF
SCA CONDITIONS LATE SAT NGT/ERY SUN. HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY BUILDS
OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HAVE ADDED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVY FOR THIS MORNING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE
OVER WORCESTER COUNTY. TIDAL DEPARTURES IN VICINITY OF OCEAN CITY
INLET WILL AVERAGE 1.5-2.0 FT ABOVE NORMAL DURING HIGH TIDE AGAIN
THURSDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS OCEAN CITY INLET
EXCEEDING MINOR DURING HIGH TIDE THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE WILL BE A FEW TENTHS HIGHER. WITH A NNW
WIND...THE MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE ALONG THE SHORELINES OF
ASSAWOMAN AND CHINCOTEAUGE BAYS...AND THE ADJACENT OCEAN INLETS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ024-
     025.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>633.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MAM







000
FXUS61 KLWX 230745
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
345 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE DELMARVA WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST OF LONG
ISLAND TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND
REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

AFTR THE CLOUDY/RAINY WX OF THE PAST 2 DAYS TDA WL BE A DAY OF
TRANSITION...WHICH LOOKS TO BE LEADING INTO SOME VERY NICE WX THIS WKND.

VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRES PRSNTLY 330 MILES E OF DC CONTS TO
SPIN LGT RA INTO NJ/DE BUT THIS HAS BEEN DIMINISHING AS IT TRACKS
SWRD TOWARDS MD. WHAT IS LEFT AS IT MOVES INTO THE NERN PART OF
OUR FCST AREA IS LOW CLDS. THIS WL LKLY CONT IN THE BALT AREA FOR
MUCH OF THE DAYLGT HRS.

THE PRES DIFFERENCE BTWN THE LOW AND HIGH BLDG INTO OH/IN WL
RESULT IN A BRZY DAY ACROSS THE AREA. NWRLY WINDS WL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPS DOWN TDA. WARMEST AREA SHOULD BE THE CENTRAL SHEN VLLY.
HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FM THE M60S NEAR CHO TO THE U50S ALONG THE M-D
LN AND IN THE HIGHLANDS.

TIME OF PARTIAL ECLIPSE - 5:50 TO 6;15 PM. APPROX 1/4 OF SUN WL BE
COVERED IN THE SWRN SKY. CLDS SHOULD BE DIMINISHING DURG THIS
TIME. BEST CHCS FOR VIEWING WL MOST LKLY BE IN THE WRN PART OF THE
CWA AND CENTRAL SHEN VLLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGH PRES CONTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TNGT. CLDS SHOULD BE
DIMINISHING DURG THE EVE. WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE OVRNGT. TEMPS
RANGING FM THE M30S IN THE HIGHLANDS TO THE U40S IN THE CITIES.
MAJORITY OF THE AREA SHOULD DROP INTO THE LM40S.

FRI SHOULD BE THE BEGINNING OF SVRL VERY NICE DAYS. HIGH PRES BLDG
OVR THE AREA SHOULD LEAD TO M SUNNY SKIES...LGTR NWRLY WINDS.
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MU60S OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

WHILE THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT AWAY
FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE FRI...ANOTHER EMBEDDED UPPER TROUGH
WILL PASS OVERHEAD INTO EARLY SAT. THIS FEATURE WILL BE DRY...ONLY
BRINGING SOME SCATTERED BATCHES OF LOW-MID CLOUD DECKS OVER THE
AREA. AN STRONG UPPER JET WILL THEN CARRY THE NEXT CLIPPER-FEATURE
DOWN FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES INTO ERN PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND FROM
SAT INTO SUN. GUIDANCE MEMBERS IN THE GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THIS NEXT
WAVE AND THE LACK OF PRECIP EXPECTED TO AFFECT OUR AREA.

ALL THE WHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HANG ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH AND COVER MUCH OF THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL KEEP MODERATED AND
NEAR-AVG CONDITIONS FOR OUR REGION TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK AND
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE FORECAST
OVER THE MED RANGE WILL BE SUNDAY...W/ THE APPEARANCE OF THE BACK
END OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MAKE A SUBSIDENCE SWIPE ACROSS THE
REGION AND MIX-DOWN SOME OF GUSTY WINDS.

MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED RAIN W/ THIS FEATURE WILL OCCUR WELL TO OUR
NORTH AND/OR DISSIPATE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL PA BEFORE
REACHING THE MASON-DIXON LINE BOTH SAT AND SUN. POPS WERE KEPT OUT
OF THE AREA FOR THE NEAR TERM AND NOT INTRODUCED AGAIN TIL THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD W/ AN EXPECTED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
SOUTHEAST HIGH PRESSURE ZONE WILL ROLL ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND OFF
THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...PUSHED ALONG BY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDING ACROSS THE PLAINS. STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG
TERM MODEL DEPICTION OF THIS FEATURE`S PROGRESSION AND WHETHER IT
WILL BREAK OFF INTO SEPARATE WAVES OF WEAKEN AND LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST BEFORE MAKING MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON THE EAST COAST. LEANED
TOWARD THE EURO W/ THE SRN STREAM PIECE SPLITTING OFF AND EVENTUALLY
SLIDING A WEAKENING AND PRECIP-LIGHT COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA
MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

LOW PRES SPINS OFF THE MID ALTC CST. THIS WL SLOWLY TRACK NNE TDA
BUT CONTS TO PUSH ATLC MOISTURE INTO THE NERN PART OF THE FCST
AREA. THIS IS KEEPING BWI/MTN CIGS AOB 030..AND THIS SHOULD CONT
FOR SVRL MORE HRS B4 RISING INTO VFR RANGE. RMDR OF TAF SITES
SHOULD BE VFR TDA. WINDS WL CONT TO BE GUSTY FM THE NW.

VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF SITES TNGT AND FRI.

A BREEZY AFTN ON SUN BUT NOT OVERLY SO...MAINLY A STEADY 15-25KT NW
BREEZE DURING THE DAYTIME HRS - DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL KEEP THE AREA`S WX QUIET OTHERWISE. THE NEXT WX-FEATURE
EXPECTED TO BE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS GUSTING INTO THE MU20 KT LVL ON MUCH OF THE WATERS ATTM.
PRES GRAD WL CONT ACROSS THE MID ATLC TDA. W/ FURTHER LO LVL
DESTABILIZATION AFTR SUNRISE GALE WRNG IS IN EFFECT ON CHES BAY S
OF SANDY PT. WINDS SHOULD BE DIMINISHING THIS EVE...BUT ONLY TO
SCA LVLS. SCA SHOULD CONT FRI.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LARGELY BUILD OVER THE AREA AND KEEP A QUIET-WX
INFLUENCE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ALTHOUGH...A FAST-MOVING
UPPER WAVE WILL CARRY GUSTY WINDS ON SUN AFTN/EVE...SCA CONDS
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME...BUT NO OTHER HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ530-531-
     535-536-538>540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538>540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ532>534-537-541-543.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     541-543.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/GMS







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230714
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
314 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST AND DECREASE CLOUDS TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS MORNING WITH
CLEARING WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
FARTHER OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE RIDGES UNTIL
LATE DAY. TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WELL INTO THE 30S. REGION HAS PAST DATES
FOR ANY FROST OR FREEZE PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND A BIT MILDER
TEMPERATURES. FOR THE WEEKEND A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL
QUICKLY CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. DRY AND
BREEZY SUNDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING WL ADVN EWD ACRS THE RGN INTO ERLY NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN
THE FCST. MDLS DIFFER ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A MID WK TROF. GENLY
SIDED CLOSE TO A WEAKER ENSEMBLE/WPC SOLN...KEEPING LOW SHWR CHCS
MID WK. WRM ADVCTN IS EXPD TO BRING ABV SEASONAL AVG TEMPS ERLY NXT
WK...WITH A RTN TO SEASONABLY COOL NMBRS AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE MID
WK TROF.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR SC...WITH AREAS OF MVFR SC...WL CONT IN N FLOW ARND E COAST LOW
PRES. THE CIGS SHOULD GRDLY ERODE LTR THIS MRNG AS DRIER AIR BEGINS
TO MOVE IN AS THE LOW DRIFTS NE...RTNG VFR CONDS TO THE RGN.

.AVIATION /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230627
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
227 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
DOUBLE BARREL SFC LO PRES OFF THE CST...ONE CENTER SE OF LONG
ISLAND...A SECOND ONE E OF THE VA ERN SHORE. MDLS CONSOLATE THE
SFC LO SE OF LONG ISLAND BY LT TNGT. PCPN HAS CONTD TO GRADUALLY
DCRS IN COVERAGE THIS EVE...THOUGH WILL HOLD ONTO SLGT CHC/LO CHC
POPS ERN 1/3RD INTO THE OVRNGT HRS. ALSO...GUSTY MNLY NW WNDS (TO
20-30 MPH) MNLY FOUND FM I 95 TO THE CST...WILL BE SLO TO DIMINISH
(INLAND) OVRNGT. LO TEMPS IN THE L40S W TO L50S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS QUICKLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM
THE OH VALLEY. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES THURSDAY...ALLOWING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WHERE GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
WILL OCCUR...15-25 MPH ELSEWHERE. A 20% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE. STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY
NE TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60
ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE UPPER 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND
SOUTH CENTRAL VA. MOSTLY CLEAR SW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE THU NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE
AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY
CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND MILDER TEMPS. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
SATURDAY FOR DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S TO
LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY
MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING
OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70 SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 70S BY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER IN THE PERIOD.
22/12Z GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE TRENDED SOMEWHAT WETTER AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
RATHER LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDS OVER REGIONAL TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH AREAS
OF MVFR LINGERING ALONG THE COAST WITH CIGS ~3KFT. DEEPENING LOW
PRES SYS NOW WELL OF THE NY/NJ COAST.LINE...AND WILL CONT UP THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...EVENTUALLY
LOCATING OFF THE COAST OF MAINE BY FRI MORNING. CONDS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY, WITH VFR CONDS TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH FRI MORNING. PRES GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN COMPRESSED TODAY...RESULTING IN GUSTY N-NW WINDS TO AROUND
20-25 KT OVER THE EASTERN SHORE INTO THU AFTN.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE WEST THU NGT AND FRIDAY. VFR CONDS LOOK TO PERSIST FRIDAY
AND THROUGH THW WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. A NNW WIND SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND AVERAGE 25-30KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40KT THROUGH THE
EVENING (20-25KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT OVER THE RIVERS). SEAS
SHOULD BUILD TO 6-9FT N THROUGH S OUT NEAR 20NM...WITH 4-6FT SEAS
NEARSHORE...AND 3-5FT WAVES IN THE BAY. THE LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
LIFT NE LATE TONIGHT AND REACHES A POSITION OFF OF CAPE COD THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
THIS TIME...BUT SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN SCA CRITERIA. THE GRADIENT
FINALLY SLACKENS ENOUGH FOR SCA CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
EVENTUALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HAVE ADDED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVY FOR THIS MORNING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE
OVER WORCESTER COUNTY. TIDAL DEPARTURES IN VICINITY OF OCEAN CITY
INLET WILL AVERAGE 1.5-2.0 FT ABOVE NORMAL DURING HIGH TIDE AGAIN
THURSDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS OCEAN CITY INLET
EXCEEDING MINOR DURING HIGH TIDE THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE WILL BE A FEW TENTHS HIGHER. WITH A NNW
WIND...THE MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE ALONG THE SHORELINES OF
ASSAWOMAN AND CHINCOTEAUGE BAYS...AND THE ADJACENT OCEAN INLETS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ024-
     025.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>633.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230614
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
214 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
DOUBLE BARREL SFC LO PRES OFF THE CST...ONE CENTER SE OF LONG
ISLAND...A SECOND ONE E OF THE VA ERN SHORE. MDLS CONSOLATE THE
SFC LO SE OF LONG ISLAND BY LT TNGT. PCPN HAS CONTD TO GRADUALLY
DCRS IN COVERAGE THIS EVE...THOUGH WILL HOLD ONTO SLGT CHC/LO CHC
POPS ERN 1/3RD INTO THE OVRNGT HRS. ALSO...GUSTY MNLY NW WNDS (TO
20-30 MPH) MNLY FOUND FM I 95 TO THE CST...WILL BE SLO TO DIMINISH
(INLAND) OVRNGT. LO TEMPS IN THE L40S W TO L50S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS QUICKLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM
THE OH VALLEY. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES THURSDAY...ALLOWING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WHERE GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
WILL OCCUR...15-25 MPH ELSEWHERE. A 20% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE. STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY
NE TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60
ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE UPPER 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND
SOUTH CENTRAL VA. MOSTLY CLEAR SW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE THU NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE
AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY
CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND MILDER TEMPS. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
SATURDAY FOR DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S TO
LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY
MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING
OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70 SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 70S BY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER IN THE PERIOD.
22/12Z GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE TRENDED SOMEWHAT WETTER AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
RATHER LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDS OVER REGIONAL TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH AREAS
OF MVFR LINGERING ALONG THE COAST WITH CIGS ~3KFT. DEEPENING LOW
PRES SYS NOW OFF THE E NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE LOW WILL CONT UP
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AND OFF THE
COAST OF MAINE BY FRI MORNING. CONDS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE
THROUGH THE DAY, WITH VFR CONDS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION THROUGH FRI MORNING. PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN COMPRESSED
TODAY...RESULTING IN GUSTY N-NW WINDS TO AROUND 20-25 KT OVER THE
EASTERN SHORE INTO THU AFTN.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE WEST THU NGT AND FRIDAY. VFR CONDS LOOK TO PERSIST FRIDAY
AND THROUGH THW WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. A NNW WIND SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND AVERAGE 25-30KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40KT THROUGH THE
EVENING (20-25KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT OVER THE RIVERS). SEAS
SHOULD BUILD TO 6-9FT N THROUGH S OUT NEAR 20NM...WITH 4-6FT SEAS
NEARSHORE...AND 3-5FT WAVES IN THE BAY. THE LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
LIFT NE LATE TONIGHT AND REACHES A POSITION OFF OF CAPE COD THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
THIS TIME...BUT SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN SCA CRITERIA. THE GRADIENT
FINALLY SLACKENS ENOUGH FOR SCA CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
EVENTUALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HAVE ADDED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVY FOR THIS MORNING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE
OVER WORCESTER COUNTY. TIDAL DEPARTURES IN VICINITY OF OCEAN CITY
INLET WILL AVERAGE 1.5-2.0 FT ABOVE NORMAL DURING HIGH TIDE AGAIN
THURSDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS OCEAN CITY INLET
EXCEEDING MINOR DURING HIGH TIDE THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE WILL BE A FEW TENTHS HIGHER. WITH A NNW
WIND...THE MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE ALONG THE SHORELINES OF
ASSAWOMAN AND CHINCOTEAUGE BAYS...AND THE ADJACENT OCEAN INLETS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ024-
     025.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>633.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...








000
FXUS61 KPHI 230556
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
156 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD. THIS STORM SYSTEM SHOULD BE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER TODAY INTO FRIDAY, THEN MOVE INTO NOVA
SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TOWARD OUR
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND THE SURFACE LOW ARE BOTH LOCATED
OFFSHORE. THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THIS MORNING.

CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION AND IT IS STILL PRETTY GUSTY
IN THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
INTO THE 40S BY DAYBREAK.

RAIN ROTATING AROUND THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION IN OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. SOMETIMES THE
RAIN WILL COME DOWN A LITTLE HEAVIER THAN AT OTHER TIMES, BUT MOST
OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA
DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A DRY SLOT HAS MADE ITS WAY
INLAND AND WILL PROVIDE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION
EARLY THIS MORNING. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA
THROUGH THIS MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE ENTIRE CWA SHOULD
BE IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE, WITH LESSER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOS...AND WESTERN BERKS COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
THE MID LEVEL LOW AND THE SURFACE LOW ARE FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD
THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD, AS WELL.

WE ARE EXPECTING THE RAIN TO BECOME SHOWERY AND END GRADUALLY FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY.

THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND IN THE 10 TO 20
MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. THE CLOUDS AND THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING ABOVE THE 50S ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE EXTENDED IS
PRETTY GOOD, BUT ONCE YOU GET PAST SATURDAY A MUCH LARGER SPREAD IS
SEEN. WE WILL, HOWEVER, BE TRANSITIONING FROM TROUGHINESS TO DEGREES
OF RIDGING THROUGH THE EXTENDED, STARTING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR
THE MOST PART WE MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY DRY LONG TERM FROM SATURDAY
ONWARD AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD TO OUR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN AND PULL AWAY TO OUR
NORTHEAST WITH JUST SOME LINGERING BACKSIDE SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES. THE OVERALL TREND ON FRIDAY IS FOR DRYING AS THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND BACK IN THE LOW TO MID-60S
WITH LESS CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND THE LACK OF SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY,
HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT STILL UNSURE IF WE WILL SEE A DRY PASSAGE WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THINKING THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO
MODIFY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND HOW MUCH INFLUENCE THE ENERGY WILL
HAVE AS IT COMES IN ON THE HEELS OF THE ONCE CUT-OFF LOW. WITH THE
LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE EXPECTED IT SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERALLY
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY
AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND, WHICH MEANS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A BREEZY DAY MAY
OCCUR AS MIXING DEEPENS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES TOWARD THE EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WARMING
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS TIME FRAME, WITH
JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW 12Z WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT THE TERMINALS. RAIN IS
FAIRLY LIGHT AT THIS TIME AS A DRY SLOT HAS STARTING TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH THIS MORNING, ENDING BY THIS AFTERNOON.

CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THIS MORNING BUT WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT AND SHOULD BECOME VFR BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AT THE
TERMINALS.

THE WINDS ARE OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SUSTAINED
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 12 TO 18 KNOTS WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30
KNOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE GUSTINESS SHOULD START TO SUBSIDE
LATER THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR. CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTH OF ABE. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE, LOWER ON SHOWERS.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. DRY COLD
FRONT PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 600 PM FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS AND
FOR THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE
SLOW MOVING LOW OFF THE COAST SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WIND OVER OUR WATERS WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS ANTICIPATED. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE UPPER PART OF
DELAWARE BAY. GUSTS THERE SHOULD PEAK AROUND 30 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST, ONCE THE GALES
COME DOWN, AS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST
THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE RELAXING BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...SUB-SCA. WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...PERIOD OF SCA POSSIBLE BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RUNNING HIGH DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE STORM OFF THE
COAST AND THE APPROACHING NEW MOON. HIGH TIDES WEDNESDAY EVENING
PEAKED JUST AT OR SLIGHTLY UNDER MINOR FLOOD LEVELS ALONG THE
OCEAN. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE...TODAY AROUND NOON...WILL HAVE A
SLIGHTLY HIGHER ASTRONOMICAL COMPONENT BUT WINDS WILL HAVE A MORE
PRONOUNCED NORTHWEST COMPONENT WHICH MIGHT HELP PUSH WATER AWAY
FROM THE COAST. RIGHT NOW THE ONLY FLOODING WE/RE EXPECTING WOULD
BE ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING BELOW OUR ESTABLISHED THRESHOLDS NEEDED
FOR AN ADVISORY. HOWEVER...WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THE
SITUATION AND ISSUE ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AS NECESSARY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/MEOLA
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230416
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1216 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...ALLOWING A HIGH
TO BUILD IN WITH DRY AND MILDER WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A FEW HOLES IN OVERCAST BUT BASICALLY STRATUS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY AS CLOSED LOW CONTINUES
TO SPIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EDGE EAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ERODING CLOUDS IN
THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SKIES TO BEGIN TO CLEAR WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES STEADY OVERNIGHT IN THE 40S AND
UPPER 30S...RECOVERING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN PUSH
ACROSS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA ON FRIDAY.

MODELS THEN INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY.  AFTER DRY WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT...HAVE
RE-INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS THRU ERLY
NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. A WKNG TROF IS PROGGED FOR A
MID WK PASSAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E. SEASONALLY COOL WKEND TEMPS
ARE EXP TO INCR TO ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR SC WL CONT IN N FLOW ARND E COAST LOW PRES. THE CIGS
SHOULD GRDLY ERODE LTR THIS MRNG AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN AS
THE LOW DRIFTS NE...RTNG VFR CONDS TO THE RGN.

.AVIATION /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$













000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230416
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1216 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...ALLOWING A HIGH
TO BUILD IN WITH DRY AND MILDER WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A FEW HOLES IN OVERCAST BUT BASICALLY STRATUS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY AS CLOSED LOW CONTINUES
TO SPIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EDGE EAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ERODING CLOUDS IN
THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SKIES TO BEGIN TO CLEAR WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES STEADY OVERNIGHT IN THE 40S AND
UPPER 30S...RECOVERING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN PUSH
ACROSS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA ON FRIDAY.

MODELS THEN INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY.  AFTER DRY WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT...HAVE
RE-INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS THRU ERLY
NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. A WKNG TROF IS PROGGED FOR A
MID WK PASSAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E. SEASONALLY COOL WKEND TEMPS
ARE EXP TO INCR TO ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR SC WL CONT IN N FLOW ARND E COAST LOW PRES. THE CIGS
SHOULD GRDLY ERODE LTR THIS MRNG AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN AS
THE LOW DRIFTS NE...RTNG VFR CONDS TO THE RGN.

.AVIATION /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$













000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230201
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1001 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
DOUBLE BARREL SFC LO PRES OFF THE CST...ONE CENTER SE OF LONG
ISLAND...A SECOND ONE E OF THE VA ERN SHORE. MDLS CONSOLATE THE
SFC LO SE OF LONG ISLAND BY LT TNGT. PCPN HAS CONTD TO GRADUALLY
DCRS IN COVERAGE THIS EVE...THOUGH WILL HOLD ONTO SLGT CHC/LO CHC
POPS ERN 1/3RD INTO THE OVRNGT HRS. ALSO...GUSTY MNLY NW WNDS (TO
20-30 MPH) MNLY FOUND FM I 95 TO THE CST...WILL BE SLO TO DIMINISH
(INLAND) OVRNGT. LO TEMPS IN THE L40S W TO L50S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS QUICKLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM
THE OH VALLEY. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES THURSDAY...ALLOWING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WHERE GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
WILL OCCUR...15-25 MPH ELSEWHERE. A 20% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE. STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY
NE TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60
ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE UPPER 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND
SOUTH CENTRAL VA. MOSTLY CLEAR SW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE THU NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE
AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY
CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND MILDER TEMPS. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
SATURDAY FOR DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S TO
LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY
MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING
OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70 SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 70S BY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER IN THE PERIOD.
22/12Z GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE TRENDED SOMEWHAT WETTER AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
RATHER LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRES SYS IS NOW WELL OFF THE DELMARVA COAST BUT CONTS
TO BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MVFR CLOUDS TO THE REGION. THE
LOW WILL CONT UP THE EAST COAST AND BE OFF NEW ENGLAND BY THU AFTN
AND OFF MAINE BY FRI MORNING. CONDS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THRU
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND MOSTLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION BY FRI MORNING. GUSTY NW-N WINDS TO 20-25 KT WILL
CONT OVER THE EASTERN SHORE INTO THU AFTN.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE
TN RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. A NNW WIND SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND AVERAGE 25-30KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40KT THROUGH THE
EVENING (20-25KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT OVER THE RIVERS). SEAS
SHOULD BUILD TO 6-9FT N THROUGH S OUT NEAR 20NM...WITH 4-6FT SEAS
NEARSHORE...AND 3-5FT WAVES IN THE BAY. THE LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
LIFT NE LATE TONIGHT AND REACHES A POSITION OFF OF CAPE COD THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
THIS TIME...BUT SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN SCA CRITERIA. THE GRADIENT
FINALLY SLACKENS ENOUGH FOR SCA CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
EVENTUALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES IN VICINITY OF OCEAN CITY INLET WILL AVERAGE
1.5-2.0 FT ABOVE NORMAL DURING HIGH TIDE AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING. THE
CURRENT FORECAST HAS OCEAN CITY INLET EXCEEDING MINOR DURING HIGH
TIDE THURSDAY MORNING AS THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE WILL BE A FEW
TENTHS HIGHER. WITH A NNW WIND...THE MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE
ALONG THE SHORELINES OF ASSAWOMAN AND CHINCOTEAUGE BAYS...AND THE
ADJACENT OCEAN INLETS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...DAP/JEF
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





















000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230201
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1001 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
DOUBLE BARREL SFC LO PRES OFF THE CST...ONE CENTER SE OF LONG
ISLAND...A SECOND ONE E OF THE VA ERN SHORE. MDLS CONSOLATE THE
SFC LO SE OF LONG ISLAND BY LT TNGT. PCPN HAS CONTD TO GRADUALLY
DCRS IN COVERAGE THIS EVE...THOUGH WILL HOLD ONTO SLGT CHC/LO CHC
POPS ERN 1/3RD INTO THE OVRNGT HRS. ALSO...GUSTY MNLY NW WNDS (TO
20-30 MPH) MNLY FOUND FM I 95 TO THE CST...WILL BE SLO TO DIMINISH
(INLAND) OVRNGT. LO TEMPS IN THE L40S W TO L50S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS QUICKLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM
THE OH VALLEY. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES THURSDAY...ALLOWING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WHERE GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
WILL OCCUR...15-25 MPH ELSEWHERE. A 20% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE. STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY
NE TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60
ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE UPPER 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND
SOUTH CENTRAL VA. MOSTLY CLEAR SW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE THU NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE
AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY
CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND MILDER TEMPS. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
SATURDAY FOR DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S TO
LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY
MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING
OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70 SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 70S BY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER IN THE PERIOD.
22/12Z GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE TRENDED SOMEWHAT WETTER AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
RATHER LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRES SYS IS NOW WELL OFF THE DELMARVA COAST BUT CONTS
TO BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MVFR CLOUDS TO THE REGION. THE
LOW WILL CONT UP THE EAST COAST AND BE OFF NEW ENGLAND BY THU AFTN
AND OFF MAINE BY FRI MORNING. CONDS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THRU
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND MOSTLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION BY FRI MORNING. GUSTY NW-N WINDS TO 20-25 KT WILL
CONT OVER THE EASTERN SHORE INTO THU AFTN.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE
TN RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. A NNW WIND SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND AVERAGE 25-30KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40KT THROUGH THE
EVENING (20-25KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT OVER THE RIVERS). SEAS
SHOULD BUILD TO 6-9FT N THROUGH S OUT NEAR 20NM...WITH 4-6FT SEAS
NEARSHORE...AND 3-5FT WAVES IN THE BAY. THE LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
LIFT NE LATE TONIGHT AND REACHES A POSITION OFF OF CAPE COD THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
THIS TIME...BUT SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN SCA CRITERIA. THE GRADIENT
FINALLY SLACKENS ENOUGH FOR SCA CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
EVENTUALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES IN VICINITY OF OCEAN CITY INLET WILL AVERAGE
1.5-2.0 FT ABOVE NORMAL DURING HIGH TIDE AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING. THE
CURRENT FORECAST HAS OCEAN CITY INLET EXCEEDING MINOR DURING HIGH
TIDE THURSDAY MORNING AS THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE WILL BE A FEW
TENTHS HIGHER. WITH A NNW WIND...THE MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE
ALONG THE SHORELINES OF ASSAWOMAN AND CHINCOTEAUGE BAYS...AND THE
ADJACENT OCEAN INLETS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...DAP/JEF
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





















000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230154 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
954 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...ALLOWING A HIGH TO
BUILD IN...RESULTING IN DRY AND WARM WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.  A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
10PM UPDATE...STILL WRESTLING WITH CLOUD COVER. LARGE HOLE HAS
DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF OHIO/WPA. HOWEVER THIS HAS CLOSED BACK
IN QUICKLY TO THE NORTH. WILL STILL CONTINUE WITH A CLOUDY
FORECAST OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

UPPER LOW...CENTERED OFF THE DELMARVA COAST...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES AWAY...MODELS INDICATE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN.

AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...WITH
MOST LOCATIONS DRY BEFORE SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.

USED A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN PUSH
ACROSS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA ON FRIDAY.

MODELS THEN INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY.  AFTER DRY WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT...HAVE
RE-INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS THRU ERLY
NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. A WKNG TROF IS PROGGED FOR A
MID WK PASSAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E. SEASONALLY COOL WKEND TEMPS
ARE EXP TO INCR TO ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT UNDER CONTINUED
CYCLONIC FLOW. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
12Z THURSDAY...AFTER WHICH VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW SITES SCATTERING OUT EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED AS
DRY AIR TRIES TO INTRUDE FROM THE NORTH...BUT FEEL THAT CLOUDS
WILL HOLD ON TOUGH.  N/NW WINDS WILL SLACKEN OFF THIS EVENING.

.AVIATION /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230154 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
954 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...ALLOWING A HIGH TO
BUILD IN...RESULTING IN DRY AND WARM WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.  A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
10PM UPDATE...STILL WRESTLING WITH CLOUD COVER. LARGE HOLE HAS
DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF OHIO/WPA. HOWEVER THIS HAS CLOSED BACK
IN QUICKLY TO THE NORTH. WILL STILL CONTINUE WITH A CLOUDY
FORECAST OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

UPPER LOW...CENTERED OFF THE DELMARVA COAST...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES AWAY...MODELS INDICATE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN.

AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...WITH
MOST LOCATIONS DRY BEFORE SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.

USED A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN PUSH
ACROSS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA ON FRIDAY.

MODELS THEN INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY.  AFTER DRY WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT...HAVE
RE-INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS THRU ERLY
NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. A WKNG TROF IS PROGGED FOR A
MID WK PASSAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E. SEASONALLY COOL WKEND TEMPS
ARE EXP TO INCR TO ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT UNDER CONTINUED
CYCLONIC FLOW. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
12Z THURSDAY...AFTER WHICH VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW SITES SCATTERING OUT EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED AS
DRY AIR TRIES TO INTRUDE FROM THE NORTH...BUT FEEL THAT CLOUDS
WILL HOLD ON TOUGH.  N/NW WINDS WILL SLACKEN OFF THIS EVENING.

.AVIATION /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 230151
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
951 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM SHOULD
BE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THEN MOVE
INTO NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
TOWARD OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE MID LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE WATERS OFF DELMARVA THIS
EVENING. IT SHOULD LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TO THE WATERS OFF NEW
JERSEY AND LONG ISLAND TOWARD MORNING. MEANWHILE, THE SURFACE LOW
WAS CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES OFF THE DELAWARE COAST. THAT FEATURE
IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT ABOUT 50 MILES TO THE EAST DURING THE COURSE
OF THE NIGHT.

IT WILL REMAIN OVERCAST AND CHILLY IN OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S. THE WIND
SHOULD BACK FROM THE NORTH TO THE NORTHWEST AT SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO
15 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S.

RAIN ROTATING AROUND THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION IN OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. SOMETIMES THE
RAIN WILL COME DOWN A LITTLE HEAVIER THAN AT OTHER TIMES, BUT MOST
OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA
DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT PERIOE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE ENTIRE
CWA SHOULD BE IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE, WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOES...AND WESTERN BERKS COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL LOW AND THE SURFACE LOW ARE FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD
THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD, AS WELL.

WE ARE EXPECTING THE RAIN TO BECOME SHOWERY AND END GRADUALLY FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY.

THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND IN THE 10 TO 20
MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. THE CLOUDS AND THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING ABOVE THE 50S ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE EXTENDED IS
PRETTY GOOD, BUT ONCE YOU GET PAST SATURDAY A MUCH LARGER SPREAD IS
SEEN. WE WILL, HOWEVER, BE TRANSITIONING FROM TROUGHINESS TO DEGREES
OF RIDGING THROUGH THE EXTENDED, STARTING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR
THE MOST PART WE MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY DRY LONGTERM FROM SATURDAY
ONWARD AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD TO OUR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN AND PULL AWAY TO OUR
NORTHEAST WITH JUST SOME LINGERING BACKSIDE SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES. THE OVERALL TREND ON FRIDAY IS FOR DRYING AS THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND BACK IN THE LOW TO MID-60S
WITH LESS CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND THE LACK OF SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY,
HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT STILL UNSURE IF WE WILL SEE A DRY PASSAGE WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THINKING THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO
MODIFY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND HOW MUCH INFLUENCE THE ENERGY WILL
HAVE AS IT COMES IN ON THE HEELS OF THE ONCE CUT-OFF LOW. WITH THE
LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE EXPECTED IT SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERALLY
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY
AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND, WHICH MEANS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A BREEZY DAY MAY
OCCUR AS MIXING DEEPENS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES TOWARD THE EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WARMING
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS TIME FRAME, WITH
JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW 12Z WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENERALLY, MVFR CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT IN OUR
REGION. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED, WITH SOME BREAKS IN BETWEEN.

THE CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT GRADUALLY INTO THE VFR CATEGORY
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO
BECOME MORE SHOWERY AND IT SHOULD END AT OUR TAF SITES BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.

THE WIND SHIFTED FROM NORTH TO NORTHWEST AFTER SUNSET, AND A
NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. SUSTAINED
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO
THE 20S OR HIGHER ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR. CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTH OF ABE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE,
LOWER ON SHOWERS.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. DRY COLD
FRONT PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 600 PM THURSDAY FOR OUR OCEAN
WATERS AND FOR THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY. THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THE SLOW MOVING LOW OFF THE COAST SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WIND OVER OUR WATERS WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS
ANTICIPATED. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE UPPER
PART OF DELAWARE BAY. GUSTS THERE SHOULD PEAK AROUND 30 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST, ONCE THE GALES
COME DOWN, AS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST
THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE RELAXING BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...SUB-SCA. WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...PERIOD OF SCA POSSIBLE BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RUNNING HIGH DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE STORM OFF THE
COAST AND THE APPROACHING NEW MOON. HIGH TIDES WEDNESDAY EVENING
PEAKED JUST AT OR SLIGHTLY UNDER MINOR FLOOD LEVELS ALONG THE
OCEAN. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE...THURSDAY MORNING AROUND NOON...WILL
HAVE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER ASTRONOMICAL COMPONENT BUT WINDS WILL HAVE
A MORE PRONOUNCED NORTHWEST COMPONENT WHICH MIGHT HELP PUSH WATER
AWAY FROM THE COAST. RIGHT NOW THE ONLY FLOODING WE/RE EXPECTING
WOULD BE ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING BELOW OUR ESTABLISHED THRESHOLDS
NEEDED FOR AN ADVISORY. HOWEVER...WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THE
SITUATION AND ISSUE ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AS NECESSARY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER/MIKETTA
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER/MIKETTA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIKETTA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 230151
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
951 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM SHOULD
BE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THEN MOVE
INTO NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
TOWARD OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE MID LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE WATERS OFF DELMARVA THIS
EVENING. IT SHOULD LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TO THE WATERS OFF NEW
JERSEY AND LONG ISLAND TOWARD MORNING. MEANWHILE, THE SURFACE LOW
WAS CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES OFF THE DELAWARE COAST. THAT FEATURE
IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT ABOUT 50 MILES TO THE EAST DURING THE COURSE
OF THE NIGHT.

IT WILL REMAIN OVERCAST AND CHILLY IN OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S. THE WIND
SHOULD BACK FROM THE NORTH TO THE NORTHWEST AT SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO
15 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S.

RAIN ROTATING AROUND THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION IN OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. SOMETIMES THE
RAIN WILL COME DOWN A LITTLE HEAVIER THAN AT OTHER TIMES, BUT MOST
OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA
DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT PERIOE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE ENTIRE
CWA SHOULD BE IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE, WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOES...AND WESTERN BERKS COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL LOW AND THE SURFACE LOW ARE FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD
THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD, AS WELL.

WE ARE EXPECTING THE RAIN TO BECOME SHOWERY AND END GRADUALLY FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY.

THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND IN THE 10 TO 20
MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. THE CLOUDS AND THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING ABOVE THE 50S ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE EXTENDED IS
PRETTY GOOD, BUT ONCE YOU GET PAST SATURDAY A MUCH LARGER SPREAD IS
SEEN. WE WILL, HOWEVER, BE TRANSITIONING FROM TROUGHINESS TO DEGREES
OF RIDGING THROUGH THE EXTENDED, STARTING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR
THE MOST PART WE MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY DRY LONGTERM FROM SATURDAY
ONWARD AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD TO OUR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN AND PULL AWAY TO OUR
NORTHEAST WITH JUST SOME LINGERING BACKSIDE SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES. THE OVERALL TREND ON FRIDAY IS FOR DRYING AS THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND BACK IN THE LOW TO MID-60S
WITH LESS CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND THE LACK OF SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY,
HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT STILL UNSURE IF WE WILL SEE A DRY PASSAGE WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THINKING THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO
MODIFY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND HOW MUCH INFLUENCE THE ENERGY WILL
HAVE AS IT COMES IN ON THE HEELS OF THE ONCE CUT-OFF LOW. WITH THE
LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE EXPECTED IT SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERALLY
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY
AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND, WHICH MEANS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A BREEZY DAY MAY
OCCUR AS MIXING DEEPENS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES TOWARD THE EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WARMING
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS TIME FRAME, WITH
JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW 12Z WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENERALLY, MVFR CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT IN OUR
REGION. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED, WITH SOME BREAKS IN BETWEEN.

THE CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT GRADUALLY INTO THE VFR CATEGORY
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO
BECOME MORE SHOWERY AND IT SHOULD END AT OUR TAF SITES BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.

THE WIND SHIFTED FROM NORTH TO NORTHWEST AFTER SUNSET, AND A
NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. SUSTAINED
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO
THE 20S OR HIGHER ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR. CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTH OF ABE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE,
LOWER ON SHOWERS.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. DRY COLD
FRONT PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 600 PM THURSDAY FOR OUR OCEAN
WATERS AND FOR THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY. THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THE SLOW MOVING LOW OFF THE COAST SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WIND OVER OUR WATERS WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS
ANTICIPATED. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE UPPER
PART OF DELAWARE BAY. GUSTS THERE SHOULD PEAK AROUND 30 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST, ONCE THE GALES
COME DOWN, AS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST
THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE RELAXING BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...SUB-SCA. WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...PERIOD OF SCA POSSIBLE BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RUNNING HIGH DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE STORM OFF THE
COAST AND THE APPROACHING NEW MOON. HIGH TIDES WEDNESDAY EVENING
PEAKED JUST AT OR SLIGHTLY UNDER MINOR FLOOD LEVELS ALONG THE
OCEAN. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE...THURSDAY MORNING AROUND NOON...WILL
HAVE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER ASTRONOMICAL COMPONENT BUT WINDS WILL HAVE
A MORE PRONOUNCED NORTHWEST COMPONENT WHICH MIGHT HELP PUSH WATER
AWAY FROM THE COAST. RIGHT NOW THE ONLY FLOODING WE/RE EXPECTING
WOULD BE ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING BELOW OUR ESTABLISHED THRESHOLDS
NEEDED FOR AN ADVISORY. HOWEVER...WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THE
SITUATION AND ISSUE ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AS NECESSARY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER/MIKETTA
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER/MIKETTA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIKETTA







000
FXUS61 KLWX 230128
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
928 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FRIDAY AND REMAIN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
DEEPENING LOPRES OFF THE NJ SHORE ATTM. THE BACK EDGE OF THE PCPN
HAS MAINLY PUSHED EWD TO THE CHSPK BAY. A FEW ELEMENTS MAY STILL
GLIDE SWD ALONG/E OF I-95 THRU THE EVNG...AND AM CARRYING CHC POPS
TO ACCT FOR THIS THRU MIDNGT.

THE BIGGER STORY IS THE CLRG THAT SUBSIDENCE/DOWNSLOPE FLOW HAS
CARVED OUT E OF THE BLURDG. ALTHO THE LWX SNDG FAIRLY SATD...
THERE/S PLENTY OF DRY AT VIA RNK RAOB. BELIEVE THAT CLDS WL PART
AREAWIDE OVNGT.

BUFKIT PROFILES DEPICT PLENTY OF WIND NOT TOO FAR OFF THE GRND...
HWVR MOMENTUM TRANSFER LOOKS REMARKABLY POOR FOR NW FLOW. SAME
HOLDS TRUE FOR LWX RAOB...THX TO SLGT H9-8 CAP. WL BE KEEPING PRVS
THROUGH PROCESS OF NO WND ADVY NCSRY...AS THE HIEST WINDS ALOFT WL
BE JUST E OF BLURDG. WL CONT TO MONITOR.

RAISED MIN-T SVRL DEGF...BASED ON CONTD MIXING OVNGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LOW CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY PULL AWAY THURSDAY. NOT EXPECTING
RAIN...EXCEPT POSSIBLE UPSLOPE RAIN OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.
CLOUD SHIELD EXPECTED TO STAY IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BUT CLEARING EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN COUNTIES. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...SO N-NW
WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. HIGH TEMPS
PRIMARILY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

COASTAL LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. CLEARING EXPECTED OVER DC/BALTIMORE
AREAS. WINDS DIMINISH WITH DECOUPLING. LOWS IN THE 40S...AND UPPER
30S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL...THE LONG TERM WILL BE A RATHER QUIET PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
EASE. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST RIDGES INTO
THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSING OVERHEAD COULD LEAD TO
SOME AN INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE TROUGH
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER AT THE SURFACE.

A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE HUDSON BAY
WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO BE A DRY COLD
FRONT...WITH ONLY A COUPLE DEGREE DROP IN TEMPERATURES RESULTING. IT
IS WORTH NOTING THAT MODELS ARE TRENDING THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF PRECIP
CLOSER TO THE AREA...BUT AT THIS POINT IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO STAY
TO OUR NORTH SO NO POPS IN THE FORECAST. SUNDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AGGRESSIVELY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SHOULD
BE OVERHEAD BY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE AS
THIS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TUESDAY AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
FILLS IN. MANY PLACES COULD BE INTO THE 70S ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
MAY APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

TERMINALS UP TO VFR CONDS ATTM...AND THAT SHUD HOLD OVNGT INTO
THU. CIGS BKN-OVC035-040...BUT CLRG STARTING TO BREAK OUT JUST E
OF BLURDG AND SHUD OVERSPREAD TAF SITES BEFORE MRNG PUSH. WINDS
SHUD BE THE ONLY FACTOR AFFECTING TERMINALS. G20-25 KT STARTING TO
WANE AT THE GRND...BUT WNDS AT THE HUBS 1000-2000 FT UP PROGGED TO
INCR TO 40 KT. AT LAST RUN...THAT WASNT ENUF TO TRIGGER LLWS
RMK... BUT ITS LKLY ENUF TO HV AN IMPACT.

SIMLR CONDS THRU END OF TAF PD AS LOPRES E OF NJ MVS TWD NEW
ENGLAND.

VFR UNDER HIPRES RDG THRU THE WKND.
&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDS ON THE WATERS ATTM. GRADIENT PROGGED TO INCR...AND HIER
WNDS POISED JUST OFF THE DECK. MIXING MAY BE PROBLEMATIC. HV OPTED
TO ADD SANDY PT-NORTH BEACH TO GLW FOR POSITIONING TO STRONG
P-GRAD AND FVRBL FETCH. ELSW...AM HOLDING ONTO SCA THRU THE NGT
INTO THU.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THU NGT AS WELL AS
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY
EASY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA. AM NOT TACKLING
THAT NOW DUE TO ONGOING GLW HAZARDS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING FOR BREEZY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DRY COLD
FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ530-531-
     535-536-538>540-542.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-541-
     543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KCS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...KCS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...HTS
MARINE...HTS/CEB








000
FXUS61 KLWX 230128
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
928 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FRIDAY AND REMAIN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
DEEPENING LOPRES OFF THE NJ SHORE ATTM. THE BACK EDGE OF THE PCPN
HAS MAINLY PUSHED EWD TO THE CHSPK BAY. A FEW ELEMENTS MAY STILL
GLIDE SWD ALONG/E OF I-95 THRU THE EVNG...AND AM CARRYING CHC POPS
TO ACCT FOR THIS THRU MIDNGT.

THE BIGGER STORY IS THE CLRG THAT SUBSIDENCE/DOWNSLOPE FLOW HAS
CARVED OUT E OF THE BLURDG. ALTHO THE LWX SNDG FAIRLY SATD...
THERE/S PLENTY OF DRY AT VIA RNK RAOB. BELIEVE THAT CLDS WL PART
AREAWIDE OVNGT.

BUFKIT PROFILES DEPICT PLENTY OF WIND NOT TOO FAR OFF THE GRND...
HWVR MOMENTUM TRANSFER LOOKS REMARKABLY POOR FOR NW FLOW. SAME
HOLDS TRUE FOR LWX RAOB...THX TO SLGT H9-8 CAP. WL BE KEEPING PRVS
THROUGH PROCESS OF NO WND ADVY NCSRY...AS THE HIEST WINDS ALOFT WL
BE JUST E OF BLURDG. WL CONT TO MONITOR.

RAISED MIN-T SVRL DEGF...BASED ON CONTD MIXING OVNGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LOW CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY PULL AWAY THURSDAY. NOT EXPECTING
RAIN...EXCEPT POSSIBLE UPSLOPE RAIN OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.
CLOUD SHIELD EXPECTED TO STAY IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BUT CLEARING EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN COUNTIES. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...SO N-NW
WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. HIGH TEMPS
PRIMARILY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

COASTAL LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. CLEARING EXPECTED OVER DC/BALTIMORE
AREAS. WINDS DIMINISH WITH DECOUPLING. LOWS IN THE 40S...AND UPPER
30S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL...THE LONG TERM WILL BE A RATHER QUIET PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
EASE. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST RIDGES INTO
THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSING OVERHEAD COULD LEAD TO
SOME AN INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE TROUGH
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER AT THE SURFACE.

A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE HUDSON BAY
WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO BE A DRY COLD
FRONT...WITH ONLY A COUPLE DEGREE DROP IN TEMPERATURES RESULTING. IT
IS WORTH NOTING THAT MODELS ARE TRENDING THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF PRECIP
CLOSER TO THE AREA...BUT AT THIS POINT IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO STAY
TO OUR NORTH SO NO POPS IN THE FORECAST. SUNDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AGGRESSIVELY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SHOULD
BE OVERHEAD BY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE AS
THIS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TUESDAY AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
FILLS IN. MANY PLACES COULD BE INTO THE 70S ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
MAY APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

TERMINALS UP TO VFR CONDS ATTM...AND THAT SHUD HOLD OVNGT INTO
THU. CIGS BKN-OVC035-040...BUT CLRG STARTING TO BREAK OUT JUST E
OF BLURDG AND SHUD OVERSPREAD TAF SITES BEFORE MRNG PUSH. WINDS
SHUD BE THE ONLY FACTOR AFFECTING TERMINALS. G20-25 KT STARTING TO
WANE AT THE GRND...BUT WNDS AT THE HUBS 1000-2000 FT UP PROGGED TO
INCR TO 40 KT. AT LAST RUN...THAT WASNT ENUF TO TRIGGER LLWS
RMK... BUT ITS LKLY ENUF TO HV AN IMPACT.

SIMLR CONDS THRU END OF TAF PD AS LOPRES E OF NJ MVS TWD NEW
ENGLAND.

VFR UNDER HIPRES RDG THRU THE WKND.
&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDS ON THE WATERS ATTM. GRADIENT PROGGED TO INCR...AND HIER
WNDS POISED JUST OFF THE DECK. MIXING MAY BE PROBLEMATIC. HV OPTED
TO ADD SANDY PT-NORTH BEACH TO GLW FOR POSITIONING TO STRONG
P-GRAD AND FVRBL FETCH. ELSW...AM HOLDING ONTO SCA THRU THE NGT
INTO THU.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THU NGT AS WELL AS
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY
EASY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA. AM NOT TACKLING
THAT NOW DUE TO ONGOING GLW HAZARDS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING FOR BREEZY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DRY COLD
FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ530-531-
     535-536-538>540-542.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-541-
     543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KCS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...KCS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...HTS
MARINE...HTS/CEB








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230119
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
919 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMING
TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS 1005 MB SFC LOW ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF THE
MD EASTERN SHORE...WITH A STACKED UPR LOW FOLLOWING SUIT AND
TRACKING SLOW NE JUST OFFSHORE. BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA...WHERE SOME TSTM
ACTIVITY IS STILL ONGOING. ELSEWHERE...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BRING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR...THOUGH THIS ACTIVITY HAS TRENDED WEAKER IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS. STILL SEEING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS OUR SW
ZONES...WHERE TEMPS WERE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE MID 60S. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT NE THRU TONIGHT...
LOCATING OFF THE NJ COAST BY 12Z THU. WILL KEEP HIGH POPS ACROSS
OUR EASTERN ZONES INTO THIS EVENING AS THE WRAP AROUND PCPN
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH. PCPN SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND LIGHTER
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR...WITH LIGHT RAIN BECOMING JUST
DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES BEFORE ENDING AFTER SUNSET. BY LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...REMAINING CHC POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO FAR EASTERN VA
AND ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN SHORE. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
ACROSS THE SW...WITH SKY CONDITIONS BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. REMAINING BREEZY TO
WINDY ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY NE SECTIONS. LOWS IN THE LOW 40S
WEST TO AROUND 50 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS QUICKLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM
THE OH VALLEY. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES THURSDAY...ALLOWING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WHERE GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
WILL OCCUR...15-25 MPH ELSEWHERE. A 20% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE. STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY
NE TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60
ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE UPPER 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND
SOUTH CENTRAL VA. MOSTLY CLEAR SW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE THU NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE
AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY
CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND MILDER TEMPS. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
SATURDAY FOR DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S TO
LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY
MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING
OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70 SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 70S BY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER IN THE PERIOD.
22/12Z GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE TRENDED SOMEWHAT WETTER AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
RATHER LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRES SYS IS NOW WELL OFF THE DELMARVA COAST BUT CONTS
TO BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MVFR CLOUDS TO THE REGION. THE
LOW WILL CONT UP THE EAST COAST AND BE OFF NEW ENGLAND BY THU AFTN
AND OFF MAINE BY FRI MORNING. CONDS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THRU
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND MOSTLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION BY FRI MORNING. GUSTY NW-N WINDS TO 20-25 KT WILL
CONT OVER THE EASTERN SHORE INTO THU AFTN.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE
TN RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. A NNW WIND SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND AVERAGE 25-30KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40KT THROUGH THE
EVENING (20-25KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT OVER THE RIVERS). SEAS
SHOULD BUILD TO 6-9FT N THROUGH S OUT NEAR 20NM...WITH 4-6FT SEAS
NEARSHORE...AND 3-5FT WAVES IN THE BAY. THE LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
LIFT NE LATE TONIGHT AND REACHES A POSITION OFF OF CAPE COD THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
THIS TIME...BUT SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN SCA CRITERIA. THE GRADIENT
FINALLY SLACKENS ENOUGH FOR SCA CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
EVENTUALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES IN VICINITY OF OCEAN CITY INLET WILL AVERAGE
AROUND 1.5FT ABOVE NORMAL DURING HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING AND
THURSDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS OCEAN CITY INLET
FALLING JUST BELOW MINOR THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING AND EXCEEDING
MINOR DURING HIGH TIDE THURSDAY MORNING AS THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE
WILL BE A FEW TENTHS HIGHER. WITH A NNW WIND...THE MAIN AREAS OF
CONCERN WILL BE ALONG THE SHORELINES OF ASSAWOMAN AND CHINCOTEAUGE
BAYS...AND THE ADJACENT OCEAN INLETS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-656-
     658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ633.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...DAP/JEF
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230119
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
919 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMING
TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS 1005 MB SFC LOW ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF THE
MD EASTERN SHORE...WITH A STACKED UPR LOW FOLLOWING SUIT AND
TRACKING SLOW NE JUST OFFSHORE. BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA...WHERE SOME TSTM
ACTIVITY IS STILL ONGOING. ELSEWHERE...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BRING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR...THOUGH THIS ACTIVITY HAS TRENDED WEAKER IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS. STILL SEEING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS OUR SW
ZONES...WHERE TEMPS WERE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE MID 60S. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT NE THRU TONIGHT...
LOCATING OFF THE NJ COAST BY 12Z THU. WILL KEEP HIGH POPS ACROSS
OUR EASTERN ZONES INTO THIS EVENING AS THE WRAP AROUND PCPN
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH. PCPN SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND LIGHTER
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR...WITH LIGHT RAIN BECOMING JUST
DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES BEFORE ENDING AFTER SUNSET. BY LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...REMAINING CHC POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO FAR EASTERN VA
AND ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN SHORE. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
ACROSS THE SW...WITH SKY CONDITIONS BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. REMAINING BREEZY TO
WINDY ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY NE SECTIONS. LOWS IN THE LOW 40S
WEST TO AROUND 50 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS QUICKLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM
THE OH VALLEY. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES THURSDAY...ALLOWING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WHERE GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
WILL OCCUR...15-25 MPH ELSEWHERE. A 20% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE. STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY
NE TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60
ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE UPPER 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND
SOUTH CENTRAL VA. MOSTLY CLEAR SW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE THU NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE
AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY
CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND MILDER TEMPS. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
SATURDAY FOR DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S TO
LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY
MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING
OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70 SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 70S BY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER IN THE PERIOD.
22/12Z GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE TRENDED SOMEWHAT WETTER AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
RATHER LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRES SYS IS NOW WELL OFF THE DELMARVA COAST BUT CONTS
TO BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MVFR CLOUDS TO THE REGION. THE
LOW WILL CONT UP THE EAST COAST AND BE OFF NEW ENGLAND BY THU AFTN
AND OFF MAINE BY FRI MORNING. CONDS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THRU
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND MOSTLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION BY FRI MORNING. GUSTY NW-N WINDS TO 20-25 KT WILL
CONT OVER THE EASTERN SHORE INTO THU AFTN.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE
TN RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. A NNW WIND SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND AVERAGE 25-30KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40KT THROUGH THE
EVENING (20-25KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT OVER THE RIVERS). SEAS
SHOULD BUILD TO 6-9FT N THROUGH S OUT NEAR 20NM...WITH 4-6FT SEAS
NEARSHORE...AND 3-5FT WAVES IN THE BAY. THE LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
LIFT NE LATE TONIGHT AND REACHES A POSITION OFF OF CAPE COD THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
THIS TIME...BUT SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN SCA CRITERIA. THE GRADIENT
FINALLY SLACKENS ENOUGH FOR SCA CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
EVENTUALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES IN VICINITY OF OCEAN CITY INLET WILL AVERAGE
AROUND 1.5FT ABOVE NORMAL DURING HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING AND
THURSDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS OCEAN CITY INLET
FALLING JUST BELOW MINOR THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING AND EXCEEDING
MINOR DURING HIGH TIDE THURSDAY MORNING AS THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE
WILL BE A FEW TENTHS HIGHER. WITH A NNW WIND...THE MAIN AREAS OF
CONCERN WILL BE ALONG THE SHORELINES OF ASSAWOMAN AND CHINCOTEAUGE
BAYS...AND THE ADJACENT OCEAN INLETS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-656-
     658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ633.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...DAP/JEF
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 230004
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
804 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM SHOULD
BE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THEN MOVE
INTO NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
TOWARD OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE MID LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE WATERS OFF DELMARVA THIS
EVENING. IT SHOULD LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TO THE WATERS OFF NEW
JERSEY AND LONG ISLAND TOWARD MORNING. MEANWHILE, THE SURFACE LOW
WAS CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES OFF THE DELAWARE COAST. THAT FEATURE
IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT ABOUT 50 MILES TO THE EAST DURING THE COURSE
OF THE NIGHT.

IT WILL REMAIN OVERCAST AND CHILLY IN OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S. THE WIND
SHOULD BACK FROM THE NORTH TO THE NORTHWEST AT SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO
15 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S.

RAIN ROTATING AROUND THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION IN OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. SOMETIMES THE
RAIN WILL COME DOWN A LITTLE HEAVIER THAN AT OTHER TIMES, BUT MOST
OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA
DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT PERIOE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE ENTIRE
CWA SHOULD BE IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE, WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOES...AND WESTERN BERKS COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL LOW AND THE SURFACE LOW ARE FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD
THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD, AS WELL.

WE ARE EXPECTING THE RAIN TO BECOME SHOWERY AND END GRADUALLY FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY.

THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND IN THE 10 TO 20
MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. THE CLOUDS AND THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING ABOVE THE 50S ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE EXTENDED IS
PRETTY GOOD, BUT ONCE YOU GET PAST SATURDAY A MUCH LARGER SPREAD IS
SEEN. WE WILL, HOWEVER, BE TRANSITIONING FROM TROUGHINESS TO DEGREES
OF RIDGING THROUGH THE EXTENDED, STARTING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR
THE MOST PART WE MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY DRY LONGTERM FROM SATURDAY
ONWARD AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD TO OUR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN AND PULL AWAY TO OUR
NORTHEAST WITH JUST SOME LINGERING BACKSIDE SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES. THE OVERALL TREND ON FRIDAY IS FOR DRYING AS THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND BACK IN THE LOW TO MID-60S
WITH LESS CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND THE LACK OF SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY,
HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT STILL UNSURE IF WE WILL SEE A DRY PASSAGE WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THINKING THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO
MODIFY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND HOW MUCH INFLUENCE THE ENERGY WILL
HAVE AS IT COMES IN ON THE HEELS OF THE ONCE CUT-OFF LOW. WITH THE
LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE EXPECTED IT SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERALLY
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY
AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND, WHICH MEANS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A BREEZY DAY MAY
OCCUR AS MIXING DEEPENS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES TOWARD THE EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WARMING
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS TIME FRAME, WITH
JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW 12Z WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENERALLY, MVFR CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT IN OUR
REGION. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED, WITH SOME BREAKS IN BETWEEN.

THE CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT GRADUALLY INTO THE VFR CATEGORY
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO
BECOME MORE SHOWERY AND IT SHOULD END AT OUR TAF SITES BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.

THE WIND SHIFTED FROM NORTH TO NORTHWEST AFTER SUNSET, AND A
NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. SUSTAINED
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO
THE 20S OR HIGHER ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR. CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTH OF ABE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE,
LOWER ON SHOWERS.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. DRY COLD
FRONT PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 600 PM THURSDAY FOR OUR OCEAN
WATERS AND FOR THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY. THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THE SLOW MOVING LOW OFF THE COAST SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WIND OVER OUR WATERS WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS
ANTICIPATED. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE UPPER
PART OF DELAWARE BAY. GUSTS THERE SHOULD PEAK AROUND 30 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST, ONCE THE GALES
COME DOWN, AS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST
THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE RELAXING BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...SUB-SCA. WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...PERIOD OF SCA POSSIBLE BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RUNNING HIGH DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE STORM OFF THE
COAST AND THE APPROACHING NEW MOON. HIGH TIDES OCCUR THIS EVENING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT ALONG THE OCEAN, THEN AGAIN ON THURSDAY MORNING ALONG
THE OCEAN AROUND NOON. TOMMORROW/S HIGH TIDE HAS THE HIGHER
ASTRONOMICAL CONTRIBUTION, BUT BY THAT TIME THERE SHOULD BE A
WELL-ESTABLISHED NORTHWEST WIND. RIGHT NOW THE ONLY FLOODING WE/RE
EXPECTING WOULD BE ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING BELOW OUR ESTABLISHED
THRESHOLDS NEEDED FOR AN ADVISORY. HOWEVER...WE WILL BE KEEPING AN
EYE ON THE SITUATION AND ISSUE ANY ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS IF
NECESSARY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER/MIKETTA
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER/MIKETTA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIKETTA








000
FXUS61 KPHI 230004
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
804 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM SHOULD
BE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THEN MOVE
INTO NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
TOWARD OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE MID LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE WATERS OFF DELMARVA THIS
EVENING. IT SHOULD LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TO THE WATERS OFF NEW
JERSEY AND LONG ISLAND TOWARD MORNING. MEANWHILE, THE SURFACE LOW
WAS CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES OFF THE DELAWARE COAST. THAT FEATURE
IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT ABOUT 50 MILES TO THE EAST DURING THE COURSE
OF THE NIGHT.

IT WILL REMAIN OVERCAST AND CHILLY IN OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S. THE WIND
SHOULD BACK FROM THE NORTH TO THE NORTHWEST AT SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO
15 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S.

RAIN ROTATING AROUND THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION IN OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. SOMETIMES THE
RAIN WILL COME DOWN A LITTLE HEAVIER THAN AT OTHER TIMES, BUT MOST
OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA
DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT PERIOE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE ENTIRE
CWA SHOULD BE IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE, WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOES...AND WESTERN BERKS COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL LOW AND THE SURFACE LOW ARE FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD
THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD, AS WELL.

WE ARE EXPECTING THE RAIN TO BECOME SHOWERY AND END GRADUALLY FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY.

THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND IN THE 10 TO 20
MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. THE CLOUDS AND THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING ABOVE THE 50S ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE EXTENDED IS
PRETTY GOOD, BUT ONCE YOU GET PAST SATURDAY A MUCH LARGER SPREAD IS
SEEN. WE WILL, HOWEVER, BE TRANSITIONING FROM TROUGHINESS TO DEGREES
OF RIDGING THROUGH THE EXTENDED, STARTING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR
THE MOST PART WE MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY DRY LONGTERM FROM SATURDAY
ONWARD AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD TO OUR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN AND PULL AWAY TO OUR
NORTHEAST WITH JUST SOME LINGERING BACKSIDE SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES. THE OVERALL TREND ON FRIDAY IS FOR DRYING AS THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND BACK IN THE LOW TO MID-60S
WITH LESS CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND THE LACK OF SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY,
HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT STILL UNSURE IF WE WILL SEE A DRY PASSAGE WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THINKING THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO
MODIFY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND HOW MUCH INFLUENCE THE ENERGY WILL
HAVE AS IT COMES IN ON THE HEELS OF THE ONCE CUT-OFF LOW. WITH THE
LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE EXPECTED IT SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERALLY
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY
AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND, WHICH MEANS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A BREEZY DAY MAY
OCCUR AS MIXING DEEPENS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES TOWARD THE EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WARMING
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS TIME FRAME, WITH
JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW 12Z WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENERALLY, MVFR CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT IN OUR
REGION. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED, WITH SOME BREAKS IN BETWEEN.

THE CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT GRADUALLY INTO THE VFR CATEGORY
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO
BECOME MORE SHOWERY AND IT SHOULD END AT OUR TAF SITES BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.

THE WIND SHIFTED FROM NORTH TO NORTHWEST AFTER SUNSET, AND A
NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. SUSTAINED
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO
THE 20S OR HIGHER ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR. CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTH OF ABE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE,
LOWER ON SHOWERS.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. DRY COLD
FRONT PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 600 PM THURSDAY FOR OUR OCEAN
WATERS AND FOR THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY. THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THE SLOW MOVING LOW OFF THE COAST SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WIND OVER OUR WATERS WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS
ANTICIPATED. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE UPPER
PART OF DELAWARE BAY. GUSTS THERE SHOULD PEAK AROUND 30 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST, ONCE THE GALES
COME DOWN, AS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST
THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE RELAXING BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...SUB-SCA. WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...PERIOD OF SCA POSSIBLE BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RUNNING HIGH DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE STORM OFF THE
COAST AND THE APPROACHING NEW MOON. HIGH TIDES OCCUR THIS EVENING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT ALONG THE OCEAN, THEN AGAIN ON THURSDAY MORNING ALONG
THE OCEAN AROUND NOON. TOMMORROW/S HIGH TIDE HAS THE HIGHER
ASTRONOMICAL CONTRIBUTION, BUT BY THAT TIME THERE SHOULD BE A
WELL-ESTABLISHED NORTHWEST WIND. RIGHT NOW THE ONLY FLOODING WE/RE
EXPECTING WOULD BE ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING BELOW OUR ESTABLISHED
THRESHOLDS NEEDED FOR AN ADVISORY. HOWEVER...WE WILL BE KEEPING AN
EYE ON THE SITUATION AND ISSUE ANY ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS IF
NECESSARY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER/MIKETTA
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER/MIKETTA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIKETTA








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 222332
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
732 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...ALLOWING A HIGH TO
BUILD IN...RESULTING IN DRY AND WARM WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.  A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
730PM UPDATE...CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE FORECAST HEADACHE.
LATEST SAT PICS ARE SHOWING DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO INTRUDE IN THE
STRATOCU DECK IN NW PA AND NE OHIO. LATEST HIRES DATA IS
PRESENTING AN EXPANSION OF THIS DRY AIR OVERNIGHT. HAVING A HARD
TIME BELIEVING THIS AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO KEEP A
SATURATED LAYER AND CYCLONIC ROTATION CONTINUES IN THE MID AND
LOWER LEVELS OVERNIGHT. HAVE DECREASED CLOUDS JUST A BIT... BUT DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH IMPROVEMENT UNTIL LATER THU MORNING. TEMPS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED WITH LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

UPPER LOW...CENTERED OFF THE DELMARVA COAST...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES AWAY...MODELS INDICATE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN.

AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...WITH
MOST LOCATIONS DRY BEFORE SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.

USED A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN PUSH
ACROSS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA ON FRIDAY.

MODELS THEN INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY.  AFTER DRY WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT...HAVE
RE-INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS THRU ERLY
NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. A WKNG TROF IS PROGGED FOR A
MID WK PASSAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E. SEASONALLY COOL WKEND TEMPS
ARE EXP TO INCR TO ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT UNDER CONTINUED
CYCLONIC FLOW. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
12Z THURSDAY...AFTER WHICH VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW SITES SCATTERING OUT EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED AS
DRY AIR TRIES TO INTRUDE FROM THE NORTH...BUT FEEL THAT CLOUDS
WILL HOLD ON TOUGH.  N/NW WINDS WILL SLACKEN OFF THIS EVENING.

.AVIATION /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 222322 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
722 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...ALLOWING A HIGH TO
BUILD IN...RESULTING IN DRY AND WARM WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.  A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
730PM UPDATE...CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE FORECAST HEADACHE.
LATEST SAT PICS ARE SHOWING DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO INTRUDE IN THE
STRATOCU DECK IN NW PA AND NE OHIO. LATEST HIRES DATA IS
PRESENTING AN EXPANSION OF THIS DRY AIR OVERNIGHT. HAVING A HARD
TIME BELIEVING THIS AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO KEEP A
SATURATED LAYER AND CYCLONIC ROTATION CONTINUES IN THE MID AND
LOWER LEVELS OVERNIGHT. HAVE DECREASED CLOUDS JUST A BIT... BUT DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH IMPROVEMENT UNTIL LATER THU MORNING. TEMPS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED WITH LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

UPPER LOW...CENTERED OFF THE DELMARVA COAST...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES AWAY...MODELS INDICATE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN.

AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...WITH
MOST LOCATIONS DRY BEFORE SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.

USED A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN PUSH
ACROSS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA ON FRIDAY.

MODELS THEN INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY.  AFTER DRY WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT...HAVE
RE-INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS THRU ERLY
NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. A WKNG TROF IS PROGGED FOR A
MID WK PASSAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E. SEASONALLY COOL WKEND TEMPS
ARE EXP TO INCR TO ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TNGT WITH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. DRY AIR SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO BREAK
UP FROM THE NORTH AND WEST AFT 04Z.  CLEARING AT ZZV MAY BE EARLY
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...WINDS MAY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY FG AT A MINIMUM
AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF ZZV TAF FOR NOW.

.AVIATION /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 222134
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
534 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMING
TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS 1005 MB SFC LOW ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF THE
MD EASTERN SHORE...WITH A STACKED UPR LOW FOLLOWING SUIT AND
TRACKING SLOW NE JUST OFFSHORE. BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA...WHERE SOME TSTM
ACTIVITY IS STILL ONGOING. ELSEWHERE...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BRING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR...THOUGH THIS ACTIVITY HAS TRENDED WEAKER IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS. STILL SEEING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS OUR SW
ZONES...WHERE TEMPS WERE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE MID 60S. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT NE THRU TONIGHT...
LOCATING OFF THE NJ COAST BY 12Z THU. WILL KEEP HIGH POPS ACROSS
OUR EASTERN ZONES INTO THIS EVENING AS THE WRAP AROUND PCPN
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH. PCPN SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND LIGHTER
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR...WITH LIGHT RAIN BECOMING JUST
DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES BEFORE ENDING AFTER SUNSET. BY LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...REMAINING CHC POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO FAR EASTERN VA
AND ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN SHORE. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
ACROSS THE SW...WITH SKY CONDITIONS BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. REMAINING BREEZY TO
WINDY ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY NE SECTIONS. LOWS IN THE LOW 40S
WEST TO AROUND 50 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS QUICKLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM
THE OH VALLEY. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES THURSDAY...ALLOWING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WHERE GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
WILL OCCUR...15-25 MPH ELSEWHERE. A 20% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE. STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY
NE TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60
ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE UPPER 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND
SOUTH CENTRAL VA. MOSTLY CLEAR SW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE THU NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE
AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY
CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND MILDER TEMPS. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
SATURDAY FOR DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S TO
LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY
MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING
OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70 SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 70S BY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER IN THE PERIOD.
22/12Z GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE TRENDED SOMEWHAT WETTER AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
RATHER LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OFFSHORE AND SLOWLY
SHIFT TO THE NE THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS
WILL PREVAIL AS MOISTURE PULLED FROM THE SOUTH IS WRAPPED AROUND THE
STORM AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. DUE TO THE ADDED MOISTURE AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT...SCATTERED POCKETS OF RAIN/SHOWERS WILL LAST THROUGH
THE EVENING...ENDING THE LATEST OVER THE EASTERN SHORE. WITH THAT
BEING SAID...THERE IS EVIDENCE OF DRIER AIR BEING PULLED INTO THE
SYSTEM OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA WITH CEILINGS ~5K FT. EXPECT THIS
DRIER AIR TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE.
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT(~15-20KT) AND THU
AFTN(~20-25KT) AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING LOW AND A SURFACE HIGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT/THU MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE
TN RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. A NNW WIND SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND AVERAGE 25-30KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40KT THROUGH THE
EVENING (20-25KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT OVER THE RIVERS). SEAS
SHOULD BUILD TO 6-9FT N THROUGH S OUT NEAR 20NM...WITH 4-6FT SEAS
NEARSHORE...AND 3-5FT WAVES IN THE BAY. THE LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
LIFT NE LATE TONIGHT AND REACHES A POSITION OFF OF CAPE COD THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
THIS TIME...BUT SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN SCA CRITERIA. THE GRADIENT
FINALLY SLACKENS ENOUGH FOR SCA CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
EVENTUALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES IN VICINITY OF OCEAN CITY INLET WILL AVERAGE
AROUND 1.5FT ABOVE NORMAL DURING HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING AND
THURSDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS OCEAN CITY INLET
FALLING JUST BELOW MINOR THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING AND EXCEEDING
MINOR DURING HIGH TIDE THURSDAY MORNING AS THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE
WILL BE A FEW TENTHS HIGHER. WITH A NNW WIND...THE MAIN AREAS OF
CONCERN WILL BE ALONG THE SHORELINES OF ASSAWOMAN AND CHINCOTEAUGE
BAYS...AND THE ADJACENT OCEAN INLETS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-656-
     658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ633.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AJZ





000
FXUS61 KPHI 222047
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
447 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM SHOULD BE OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THEN MOVE INTO
NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TOWARD
OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HE MID LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE WATERS OFF VIRGINIA THIS
AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TO THE WATERS OFF NEW JERSEY
AND LONG ISLAND TOWARD MORNING. MEANWHILE, THE SURFACE LOW WAS
CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES OFF THE DELAWARE COAST. THAT FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT ABOUT 50 MILES TO THE EAST DURING THE COURSE OF
THE NIGHT.

IT WILL REMAIN OVERCAST AND CHILLY IN OUR REGION FOR TONIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S. THE WIND
SHOULD BACK FROM THE NORTH TO THE NORTHWEST AT SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO
15 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S.

THE RAIN THAT WAS ROTATING AROUND THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION IN OUR REGION DURING
THE NIGHT. IT SHOULD SETTLE PRIMARILY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN IN NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE DURING THE EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAINFALL IN COASTAL
AREAS OF NEW JERSEY THIS EVENING DEPENDING UPON HOW FAR WESTWARD THE
HEAVIER RAIN BANDS OFF THE COAST MOVE. OTHERWISE, RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE QUARTER TO HALF
INCH RANGE, WITH LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED IN
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL LOW AND THE SURFACE LOW ARE FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD
THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD, AS WELL.

WE ARE EXPECTING THE RAIN TO BECOME SHOWERY AND END GRADUALLY FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY.

THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND IN THE 10 TO 20
MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. THE CLOUDS AND THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING ABOVE THE 50S ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE EXTENDED IS
PRETTY GOOD, BUT ONCE YOU GET PAST SATURDAY A MUCH LARGER SPREAD IS
SEEN. WE WILL, HOWEVER, BE TRANSITIONING FROM TROUGHINESS TO DEGREES
OF RIDGING THROUGH THE EXTENDED, STARTING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR
THE MOST PART WE MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY DRY LONGTERM FROM SATURDAY
ONWARD AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD TO OUR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN AND PULL AWAY TO OUR
NORTHEAST WITH JUST SOME LINGERING BACKSIDE SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES. THE OVERALL TREND ON FRIDAY IS FOR DRYING AS THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND BACK IN THE LOW TO MID-60S
WITH LESS CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND THE LACK OF SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY,
HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT STILL UNSURE IF WE WILL SEE A DRY PASSAGE WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THINKING THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO
MODIFY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND HOW MUCH INFLUENCE THE ENERGY WILL
HAVE AS IT COMES IN ON THE HEELS OF THE ONCE CUT-OFF LOW. WITH THE
LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE EXPECTED IT SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERALLY
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY
AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND, WHICH MEANS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A BREEZY DAY MAY
OCCUR AS MIXING DEEPENS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES TOWARD THE EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WARMING
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS TIME FRAME, WITH
JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW 12Z WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENERALLY, MVFR CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT IN OUR
REGION. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIEST OF THE
RAINFALL BEING MAINLY IN NEW JERSEY.

THE CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT GRADUALLY INTO THE VFR CATEGORY
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO
BECOME MORE SHOWERY AND IT SHOULD END AT OUR TAF SITES BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO FAVOR THE NORTH INTO THIS EVENING, THEN IT
SHOULD BACK TO THE NORTHWEST FOR OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. SUSTAINED
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE
20S.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR. CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTH OF ABE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE,
LOWER ON SHOWERS.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. DRY COLD
FRONT PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 600 PM THURSDAY FOR OUR
OCEAN WATERS AND FOR THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY. THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THE SLOW MOVING LOW OFF THE COAST SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WIND OVER OUR WATERS WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS
ANTICIPATED. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE UPPER
PART OF DELAWARE BAY. GUSTS THERE SHOULD PEAK AROUND 30 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST, ONCE THE GALES
COME DOWN, AS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST
THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE RELAXING BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...SUB-SCA. WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...PERIOD OF SCA POSSIBLE BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RUNNING HIGH DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE STORM OFF THE
COAST AND THE APPROACHING NEW MOON. HIGH TIDES OCCUR THIS EVENING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT ALONG THE OCEAN, THEN AGAIN ON THURSDAY MORNING ALONG
THE OCEAN AROUND NOON. TOMMORROW/S HIGH TIDE HAS THE HIGHER
ASTRONOMICAL CONTRIBUTION, BUT BY THAT TIME THERE SHOULD BE A
WELL-ESTABLISHED NORTHWEST WIND. RIGHT NOW THE ONLY FLOODING WE/RE
EXPECTING WOULD BE ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING BELOW OUR ESTABLISHED
THRESHOLDS NEEDED FOR AN ADVISORY. HOWEVER...WE WILL BE KEEPING AN
EYE ON THE SITUATION AND ISSUE ANY ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS IF
NECESSARY.


&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIKETTA








000
FXUS61 KPHI 222000
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
400 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM SHOULD BE OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THEN MOVE INTO
NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TOWARD
OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HE MID LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE WATERS OFF VIRGINIA THIS
AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TO THE WATERS OFF NEW JERSEY
AND LONG ISLAND TOWARD MORNING. MEANWHILE, THE SURFACE LOW WAS
CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES OFF THE DELAWARE COAST. THAT FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT ABOUT 50 MILES TO THE EAST DURING THE COURSE OF
THE NIGHT.

IT WILL REMAIN OVERCAST AND CHILLY IN OUR REGION FOR TONIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S. THE WIND
SHOULD BACK FROM THE NORTH TO THE NORTHWEST AT SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO
15 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S.

THE RAIN THAT WAS ROTATING AROUND THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION IN OUR REGION DURING
THE NIGHT. IT SHOULD SETTLE PRIMARILY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN IN NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE DURING THE EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAINFALL IN COASTAL
AREAS OF NEW JERSEY THIS EVENING DEPENDING UPON HOW FAR WESTWARD THE
HEAVIER RAIN BANDS OFF THE COAST MOVE. OTHERWISE, RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE QUARTER TO HALF
INCH RANGE, WITH LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED IN
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL LOW AND THE SURFACE LOW ARE FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD
THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD, AS WELL.

WE ARE EXPECTING THE RAIN TO BECOME SHOWERY AND END GRADUALLY FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY.

THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND IN THE 10 TO 20
MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. THE CLOUDS AND THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING ABOVE THE 50S ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE EXTENDED IS
PRETTY GOOD, BUT ONCE YOU GET PAST SATURDAY A MUCH LARGER SPREAD IS
SEEN. WE WILL, HOWEVER, BE TRANSITIONING FROM TROUGHINESS TO DEGREES
OF RIDGING THROUGH THE EXTENDED, STARTING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR
THE MOST PART WE MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY DRY LONGTERM FROM SATURDAY
ONWARD AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD TO OUR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN AND PULL AWAY TO OUR
NORTHEAST WITH JUST SOME LINGERING BACKSIDE SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES. THE OVERALL TREND ON FRIDAY IS FOR DRYING AS THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND BACK IN THE LOW TO MID-60S
WITH LESS CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND THE LACK OF SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY,
HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT STILL UNSURE IF WE WILL SEE A DRY PASSAGE WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THINKING THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO
MODIFY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND HOW MUCH INFLUENCE THE ENERGY WILL
HAVE AS IT COMES IN ON THE HEELS OF THE ONCE CUT-OFF LOW. WITH THE
LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE EXPECTED IT SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERALLY
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY
AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND, WHICH MEANS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A BREEZY DAY MAY
OCCUR AS MIXING DEEPENS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES TOWARD THE EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WARMING
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS TIME FRAME, WITH
JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW 12Z WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENERALLY, MVFR CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT IN OUR
REGION. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIEST OF THE
RAINFALL BEING MAINLY IN NEW JERSEY.

THE CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT GRADUALLY INTO THE VFR CATEGORY
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO
BECOME MORE SHOWERY AND IT SHOULD END AT OUR TAF SITES BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO FAVOR THE NORTH INTO THIS EVENING, THEN IT
SHOULD BACK TO THE NORTHWEST FOR OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. SUSTAINED
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE
20S.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR. CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTH OF ABE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE,
LOWER ON SHOWERS.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. DRY COLD
FRONT PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR.


&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 600 PM THURSDAY FOR OUR
OCEAN WATERS AND FOR THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY. THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THE SLOW MOVING LOW OFF THE COAST SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WIND OVER OUR WATERS WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS
ANTICIPATED. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE UPPER
PART OF DELAWARE BAY. GUSTS THERE SHOULD PEAK AROUND 30 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST, ONCE THE GALES
COME DOWN, AS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST
THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE RELAXING BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...SUB-SCA. WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...PERIOD OF SCA POSSIBLE BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 222000
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMING
TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS 1005 MB SFC LOW ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF THE
MD EASTERN SHORE...WITH A STACKED UPR LOW FOLLOWING SUIT AND
TRACKING SLOW NE JUST OFFSHORE. BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA...WHERE SOME TSTM
ACTIVITY IS STILL ONGOING. ELSEWHERE...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BRING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR...THOUGH THIS ACTIVITY HAS TRENDED WEAKER IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS. STILL SEEING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS OUR SW
ZONES...WHERE TEMPS WERE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE MID 60S. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT NE THRU TONIGHT...
LOCATING OFF THE NJ COAST BY 12Z THU. WILL KEEP HIGH POPS ACROSS
OUR EASTERN ZONES INTO THIS EVENING AS THE WRAP AROUND PCPN
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH. PCPN SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND LIGHTER
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR...WITH LIGHT RAIN BECOMING JUST
DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES BEFORE ENDING AFTER SUNSET. BY LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...REMAINING CHC POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO FAR EASTERN VA
AND ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN SHORE. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
ACROSS THE SW...WITH SKY CONDITIONS BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. REMAINING BREEZY TO
WINDY ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY NE SECTIONS. LOWS IN THE LOW 40S
WEST TO AROUND 50 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS QUICKLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM
THE OH VALLEY. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES THURSDAY...ALLOWING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WHERE GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
WILL OCCUR...15-25 MPH ELSEWHERE. A 20% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE. STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY
NE TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60
ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE UPPER 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND
SOUTH CENTRAL VA. MOSTLY CLEAR SW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE THU NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE
AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY
CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND MILDER TEMPS. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
SATURDAY FOR DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S TO
LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY
MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING
OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70 SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 70S BY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER IN THE PERIOD.
22/12Z GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE TRENDED SOMEWHAT WETTER AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
RATHER LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OFFSHORE AND SLOWLY
SHIFT TO THE NE THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS
WILL PREVAIL AS MOISTURE PULLED FROM THE SOUTH IS WRAPPED AROUND THE
STORM AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. DUE TO THE ADDED MOISTURE AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT...SCATTERED POCKETS OF RAIN/SHOWERS WILL LAST THROUGH
THE EVENING...ENDING THE LATEST OVER THE EASTERN SHORE. WITH THAT
BEING SAID...THERE IS EVIDENCE OF DRIER AIR BEING PULLED INTO THE
SYSTEM OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA WITH CEILINGS ~5K FT. EXPECT THIS
DRIER AIR TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE.
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT(~15-20KT) AND THU
AFTN(~20-25KT) AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING LOW AND A SURFACE HIGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT/THU MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE
TN RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. A NNW WIND SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND AVERAGE 25-30KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40KT THROUGH THE
EVENING (20-25KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT OVER THE RIVERS). SEAS
SHOULD BUILD TO 6-9FT N THROUGH S OUT NEAR 20NM...WITH 4-6FT SEAS
NEARSHORE...AND 3-5FT WAVES IN THE BAY. THE LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
LIFT NE LATE TONIGHT AND REACHES A POSITION OFF OF CAPE COD THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
THIS TIME...BUT SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN SCA CRITERIA. THE GRADIENT
FINALLY SLACKENS ENOUGH FOR SCA CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
EVENTUALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-656-
     658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ633.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...AJZ







000
FXUS61 KPHI 222000
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
400 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM SHOULD BE OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THEN MOVE INTO
NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TOWARD
OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HE MID LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE WATERS OFF VIRGINIA THIS
AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TO THE WATERS OFF NEW JERSEY
AND LONG ISLAND TOWARD MORNING. MEANWHILE, THE SURFACE LOW WAS
CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES OFF THE DELAWARE COAST. THAT FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT ABOUT 50 MILES TO THE EAST DURING THE COURSE OF
THE NIGHT.

IT WILL REMAIN OVERCAST AND CHILLY IN OUR REGION FOR TONIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S. THE WIND
SHOULD BACK FROM THE NORTH TO THE NORTHWEST AT SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO
15 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S.

THE RAIN THAT WAS ROTATING AROUND THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION IN OUR REGION DURING
THE NIGHT. IT SHOULD SETTLE PRIMARILY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN IN NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE DURING THE EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAINFALL IN COASTAL
AREAS OF NEW JERSEY THIS EVENING DEPENDING UPON HOW FAR WESTWARD THE
HEAVIER RAIN BANDS OFF THE COAST MOVE. OTHERWISE, RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE QUARTER TO HALF
INCH RANGE, WITH LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED IN
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL LOW AND THE SURFACE LOW ARE FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD
THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD, AS WELL.

WE ARE EXPECTING THE RAIN TO BECOME SHOWERY AND END GRADUALLY FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY.

THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND IN THE 10 TO 20
MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. THE CLOUDS AND THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING ABOVE THE 50S ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE EXTENDED IS
PRETTY GOOD, BUT ONCE YOU GET PAST SATURDAY A MUCH LARGER SPREAD IS
SEEN. WE WILL, HOWEVER, BE TRANSITIONING FROM TROUGHINESS TO DEGREES
OF RIDGING THROUGH THE EXTENDED, STARTING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR
THE MOST PART WE MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY DRY LONGTERM FROM SATURDAY
ONWARD AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD TO OUR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN AND PULL AWAY TO OUR
NORTHEAST WITH JUST SOME LINGERING BACKSIDE SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES. THE OVERALL TREND ON FRIDAY IS FOR DRYING AS THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND BACK IN THE LOW TO MID-60S
WITH LESS CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND THE LACK OF SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY,
HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT STILL UNSURE IF WE WILL SEE A DRY PASSAGE WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THINKING THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO
MODIFY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND HOW MUCH INFLUENCE THE ENERGY WILL
HAVE AS IT COMES IN ON THE HEELS OF THE ONCE CUT-OFF LOW. WITH THE
LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE EXPECTED IT SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERALLY
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY
AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND, WHICH MEANS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A BREEZY DAY MAY
OCCUR AS MIXING DEEPENS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES TOWARD THE EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WARMING
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS TIME FRAME, WITH
JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW 12Z WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENERALLY, MVFR CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT IN OUR
REGION. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIEST OF THE
RAINFALL BEING MAINLY IN NEW JERSEY.

THE CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT GRADUALLY INTO THE VFR CATEGORY
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO
BECOME MORE SHOWERY AND IT SHOULD END AT OUR TAF SITES BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO FAVOR THE NORTH INTO THIS EVENING, THEN IT
SHOULD BACK TO THE NORTHWEST FOR OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. SUSTAINED
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE
20S.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR. CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTH OF ABE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE,
LOWER ON SHOWERS.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. DRY COLD
FRONT PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR.


&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 600 PM THURSDAY FOR OUR
OCEAN WATERS AND FOR THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY. THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THE SLOW MOVING LOW OFF THE COAST SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WIND OVER OUR WATERS WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS
ANTICIPATED. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE UPPER
PART OF DELAWARE BAY. GUSTS THERE SHOULD PEAK AROUND 30 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST, ONCE THE GALES
COME DOWN, AS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST
THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE RELAXING BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...SUB-SCA. WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...PERIOD OF SCA POSSIBLE BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 222000
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMING
TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS 1005 MB SFC LOW ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF THE
MD EASTERN SHORE...WITH A STACKED UPR LOW FOLLOWING SUIT AND
TRACKING SLOW NE JUST OFFSHORE. BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA...WHERE SOME TSTM
ACTIVITY IS STILL ONGOING. ELSEWHERE...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BRING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR...THOUGH THIS ACTIVITY HAS TRENDED WEAKER IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS. STILL SEEING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS OUR SW
ZONES...WHERE TEMPS WERE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE MID 60S. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT NE THRU TONIGHT...
LOCATING OFF THE NJ COAST BY 12Z THU. WILL KEEP HIGH POPS ACROSS
OUR EASTERN ZONES INTO THIS EVENING AS THE WRAP AROUND PCPN
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH. PCPN SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND LIGHTER
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR...WITH LIGHT RAIN BECOMING JUST
DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES BEFORE ENDING AFTER SUNSET. BY LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...REMAINING CHC POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO FAR EASTERN VA
AND ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN SHORE. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
ACROSS THE SW...WITH SKY CONDITIONS BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. REMAINING BREEZY TO
WINDY ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY NE SECTIONS. LOWS IN THE LOW 40S
WEST TO AROUND 50 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS QUICKLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM
THE OH VALLEY. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES THURSDAY...ALLOWING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WHERE GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
WILL OCCUR...15-25 MPH ELSEWHERE. A 20% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE. STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY
NE TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60
ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE UPPER 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND
SOUTH CENTRAL VA. MOSTLY CLEAR SW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE THU NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE
AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY
CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND MILDER TEMPS. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
SATURDAY FOR DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S TO
LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY
MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING
OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70 SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 70S BY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER IN THE PERIOD.
22/12Z GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE TRENDED SOMEWHAT WETTER AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
RATHER LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OFFSHORE AND SLOWLY
SHIFT TO THE NE THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS
WILL PREVAIL AS MOISTURE PULLED FROM THE SOUTH IS WRAPPED AROUND THE
STORM AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. DUE TO THE ADDED MOISTURE AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT...SCATTERED POCKETS OF RAIN/SHOWERS WILL LAST THROUGH
THE EVENING...ENDING THE LATEST OVER THE EASTERN SHORE. WITH THAT
BEING SAID...THERE IS EVIDENCE OF DRIER AIR BEING PULLED INTO THE
SYSTEM OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA WITH CEILINGS ~5K FT. EXPECT THIS
DRIER AIR TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE.
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT(~15-20KT) AND THU
AFTN(~20-25KT) AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING LOW AND A SURFACE HIGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT/THU MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE
TN RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. A NNW WIND SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND AVERAGE 25-30KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40KT THROUGH THE
EVENING (20-25KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT OVER THE RIVERS). SEAS
SHOULD BUILD TO 6-9FT N THROUGH S OUT NEAR 20NM...WITH 4-6FT SEAS
NEARSHORE...AND 3-5FT WAVES IN THE BAY. THE LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
LIFT NE LATE TONIGHT AND REACHES A POSITION OFF OF CAPE COD THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
THIS TIME...BUT SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN SCA CRITERIA. THE GRADIENT
FINALLY SLACKENS ENOUGH FOR SCA CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
EVENTUALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-656-
     658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ633.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...AJZ







000
FXUS61 KLWX 221852
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
252 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FRIDAY AND REMAIN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE OCEAN EAST OF THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH OR ORGANIZATION IN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT THE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE NE TOWARDS CAPE COD.
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AND
IMPACTS JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE CWA EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
PORTIONS OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. RAIN SHIELD WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LIGHT RAIN
IS LIKELY PERSIST IN THE WASHINGTON DC METRO AND AREAS TO THE
NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. N-NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25
MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW AND COOLER AIR ALOFT ADVECTS INTO
THE REGION. LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 50S...AND
AROUND 60 IN ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT POSSIBLY LEFTOVER RAIN
NEAR CHESAPEAKE BAY AND UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION OVER THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS. SOME SNOW MAY MIX WITH RAIN IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT PRECIPITATION AS THE AREA
UNDER THE INVERSION WILL BE SHALLOW. GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE...BUT MAY DIMINISH FOR A FEW HRS OVERNIGHT IF AN
INVERSION IS ABLE TO DEVELOP. HIGHEST 925MB JET WILL BE PRIMARILY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...SO NOT EXPECTING WIND ADVISORY
GUSTS IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LOW CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY PULL AWAY THURSDAY. NOT EXPECTING
RAIN...EXCEPT POSSIBLE UPSLOPE RAIN OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.
CLOUD SHIELD EXPECTED TO STAY IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BUT CLEARING EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN COUNTIES. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...SO N-NW
WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. HIGH TEMPS
PRIMARILY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

COASTAL LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. CLEARING EXPECTED OVER DC/BALTIMORE
AREAS. WINDS DIMINISH WITH DECOUPLING. LOWS IN THE 40S...AND UPPER
30S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERALL...THE LONG TERM WILL BE A RATHER QUIET PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
EASE. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST RIDGES INTO
THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSING OVERHEAD COULD LEAD TO
SOME AN INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE TROUGH
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER AT THE SURFACE.

A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE HUDSON BAY
WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO BE A DRY COLD
FRONT...WITH ONLY A COUPLE DEGREE DROP IN TEMPERATURES RESULTING. IT
IS WORTH NOTING THAT MODELS ARE TRENDING THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF PRECIP
CLOSER TO THE AREA...BUT AT THIS POINT IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO STAY
TO OUR NORTH SO NO POPS IN THE FORECAST. SUNDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AGGRESSIVELY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SHOULD
BE OVERHEAD BY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE AS
THIS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TUESDAY AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
FILLS IN. MANY PLACES COULD BE INTO THE 70S ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
MAY APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.



&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF BY LATE AFTERNOON AT DC AREA
TERMINALS. BALTIMORE AIRPORTS WILL BE LAST TO SEE RAIN END LATE
THIS EVENING. PRIMARILY MVFR CONDS...BUT PDS OF VFR WHEN LOWER
CLOUDS SCATTER. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT. GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF AVIATION HAZARDS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
PERIODIC RAIN TODAY. SCA THROUGH TODAY AS NWLY FLOW INCREASES.
GALES OVER THE SRN MD WATERS AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES. ELECTED NOT TO
ISSUE A GALE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS AS HIGHEST WINDS ALOFT NOT
LIKELY TO MIX DOWN...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED DURING THE DAY FRIDAY
AS GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY EASY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING INTO THE AREA. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FOR BREEZY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE
OF A DRY COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>532-
     535-536-538>540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ533-
     534-537-541-543.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ533-534-537-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KCS
NEAR TERM...KCS
SHORT TERM...KCS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...KCS/CEB
MARINE...KCS/CEB









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221820
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
220 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
SLOW WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS 1007 MB SFC LOW JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SHORE. UPR CLOSED LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER HAMPTON ROADS AND WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE THRU 18Z. BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS ACROSS THE MOUTH
OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND OFFSHORE JUST PAST 20 NM. LATEST SRM
PRODUCTS FROM THE LOCAL 88D`S SHOW SOME WEAK ROTATION WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS OFFSHORE...AND WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF WE HEAR
ABOUT A WATERSPOUT OR TWO. ANOTHER BAND OF RAIN IS NOW MOVING
SOUTH ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHICH WILL ALLOW RAIN TO LAST INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN THESE AREAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN VA INCLUDING HAMPTON ROADS. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ACROSS OUR SW COUNTIES WHERE SOME SUN WILL CONTINUE TO
PEAK THROUGH THE CLOUDS. HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A COUPLE MORE
DEGREES FOR TODAY AS HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 DEG IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS OFFSHORE THIS AFTN...DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN TO 20% OR LESS
OVER SW ZONES BY 21Z...WHILE FAVORABLE LIFT AND MOISTURE PERSIST
FARTHER EAST. THIS SEEMS TO BE SUPPORTED WELL BY LATEST HI RES
MODELS. WILL MAINTAIN 60-80% POPS OVER THE ERN 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE
CWA THROUGH 21Z. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK UP FROM THE SW LATER
IN THE AFTN...MAY SEE SOME PEEKS OF SUN ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL VA BY
MID-LATE AFTN BUT OVERALL IT WILL STAY BKN/OVC. OTHER FEATURE TO
NOTE WILL BE THE INCREASING NW WINDS BY AFTN AS THE SFC LOW
INTENSIFIES FAIRLY RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST. GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY LATER AFTN/EVENING (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST).

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE TONIGHT. HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ERN SHORE THIS EVENING...GENLY ONLY 20%-30%
POPS OR LOWER ELSEWHERE AFTER 00Z. DECREASING CLOUDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA/NC OVERNIGHT. REMAINING BREEZY TO
WINDY ESP NE SECTIONS. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 40S ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95 TO THE LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT IN BETWEEN SUB 1000 MB SFC
LOW OFF LONG ISLAND AND 1020 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY.
NAM SOLUTION IS OUTLIER WITH RESPECT TO IT`S LOCATION OF THE SFC
LOW WELL NORTH OF OTHER MODELS ON THU. THUS...NAM WINDS ARE
LIGHTER DUE TO A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT. FAVOR WINDS CLOSER TO A
GFS/ECMWF BLEND...WHICH YIELDS  BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACRS THE ERN SHORE...25-30 MPH ELSEWHERE. A
20%-30% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE.
STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR
SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY N/E TO PARTLY SUNNY S/W (MAYBE
MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE FAR SW). HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 F
ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE UPPER 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND
SOUTH CENTRAL VA. MOSTLY CLEAR SW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE THU NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND
MILDER TEMPS. HIGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS WELL TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY
MIDWEEK. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY (PERHAPS WARMER TUESDAY). LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OFFSHORE AND SLOWLY
SHIFT TO THE NE THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS
WILL PREVAIL AS MOISTURE PULLED FROM THE SOUTH IS WRAPPED AROUND THE
STORM AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. DUE TO THE ADDED MOISTURE AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT...SCATTERED POCKETS OF RAIN/SHOWERS WILL LAST THROUGH
THE EVENING...ENDING THE LATEST OVER THE EASTERN SHORE. WITH THAT
BEING SAID...THERE IS EVIDENCE OF DRIER AIR BEING PULLED INTO THE
SYSTEM OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA WITH CEILINGS ~5K FT. EXPECT THIS
DRIER AIR TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE.
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT(~15-20KT) AND THU
AFTN(~20-25KT) AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING LOW AND A SURFACE HIGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT/THU MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE
TN RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.MARINE...
LO PRES WILL FORM OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND
CANADIAN MARITIME CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO ARND 30 KT THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG.
THEN...FM THIS EVENG THRU THU AFTN...GUSTS TO ARND 35 KT WILL BE
LIKELY OVR AT LEAST THE CHES BAY ZNS AND ON THE CSTL WTRS FM
FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LGT. THUS...HAVE ISSUED SCA THIS
MORNING/AFTN RAMPING UP TO A GALE WARNING IN THESE LOCATIONS FOR THIS
EVENG INTO/THRU THU AFTN. OTHRWISE...EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS OVR THE
ENTIRE WTRS FM THIS MORNG INTO EARLY FRI MORNG...AS STRNG LO PRES
IS SLOW TO MOVE AWAY TO THE NE. WITH THE FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FM
THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-7 FT AND TIDAL
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS
SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-656-
     658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ633.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...JDM/LKB
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...TMG







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221818
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
220 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...ALLOWING A HIGH TO
BUILD IN...RESULTING IN DRY AND WARM WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.  A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW...CENTERED OFF THE DELMARVA COAST...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES AWAY...MODELS INDICATE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN.

AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...WITH
MOST LOCATIONS DRY BEFORE SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.

USED A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN PUSH
ACROSS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA ON FRIDAY.

MODELS THEN INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY.  AFTER DRY WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT...HAVE
RE-INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR
SATURDAY.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS THRU ERLY
NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. A WKNG TROF IS PROGGED FOR A
MID WK PASSAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E. SEASONALLY COOL WKEND TEMPS
ARE EXP TO INCR TO ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TNGT WITH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. DRY AIR SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO BREAK
UP FROM THE NORTH AND WEST AFT 04Z.  CLEARING AT ZZV MAY BE EARLY
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...WINDS MAY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY FG AT A MINIMUM
AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF ZZV TAF FOR NOW.

.AVIATION /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

JSH










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221738
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
137 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...ALLOWING A HIGH TO
BUILD IN...RESULTING IN DRY AND WARM WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.  A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MINOR TWEAKS TO THE NR TERM GRIDS BASED ON OBS AND RADAR FOR THE
PRE DAWN UPDT.

PREVIOUS DISC...MATURATION OF LOW PRES IS STILL MDL PROGGED OVR
THE COAST BY DAYS END AND OVRALL SBSDNC WL GRADUALLY SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVR MOST OF THE UPR OH VALLEY AREA...ALTHOUGH
SLGT SHWR CHCS MAY LINGER INTO EVE OVR THE RIDGES WITH THE SHARPER
UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE.

COLD TEMPS WL LINGER THOUGH AS COLD...TO NEUTRAL ADVCTN CONTS ON
THE REAR FLANK OF THE EXITING LOW. TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES UNDR THE
AVGS WERE MASSAGED USING SREF MEANS AND BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHRTWV RIDGING IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS RMNG PCPN CHCS TNGT...AND
INTO FRIDAY.

THEREAFTER...NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF HAVE CONSISTENTLY DEPICTED THE
APCH...AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK SHRTWV IN NW FLOW ON FRIDAY. GIVEN
DEPICTIONS OF A LTD MID LVL MSTR FIELD...CAPPED LOW LVLS AFTR MID
LVL WARMING...AND AN ABSENT PCPN SPPRTG OMEGA FIELD...HAVE DECIDED
TO ELIMINATE THE ALREADY SLGT POP FORECAST IN FAVOR A STRENGTHENING
DRY TREND.

ANOTHER SUCH DISTURBANCE IS PROJECTED FOR A SATURDAY CROSSING...BUT
THE RAIN POTENTIAL LKS EQUALLY SLIM GIVEN SIMILIAR LIMITATIONS AS
FRIDAY AS WELL AS A MORE NWD TRACK OF THE LOW CNTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS FEATURE MODERATION TWD THE SEASONAL AVGS...FORECAST
FOR WAS TWEAKED AGAIN USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS AND SREF MEANS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS THRU ERLY
NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. A WKNG TROF IS PROGGED FOR A
MID WK PASSAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E. SEASONALLY COOL WKEND TEMPS
ARE EXP TO INCR TO ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NTO TNGT WITH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. DRY AIR SHOULD ALLIOW CLOUDS TO BREAK
UP FROM THE NORTH AND WEST AFT 04Z.  CLEARING AT ZZV MAY BE EARLY
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...WINDS MAY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY FG AT A MINIMUM
AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF ZZV TAF FOR NOW.

.AVIATION /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

JSH/RLX








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221738
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
137 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...ALLOWING A HIGH TO
BUILD IN...RESULTING IN DRY AND WARM WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.  A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MINOR TWEAKS TO THE NR TERM GRIDS BASED ON OBS AND RADAR FOR THE
PRE DAWN UPDT.

PREVIOUS DISC...MATURATION OF LOW PRES IS STILL MDL PROGGED OVR
THE COAST BY DAYS END AND OVRALL SBSDNC WL GRADUALLY SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVR MOST OF THE UPR OH VALLEY AREA...ALTHOUGH
SLGT SHWR CHCS MAY LINGER INTO EVE OVR THE RIDGES WITH THE SHARPER
UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE.

COLD TEMPS WL LINGER THOUGH AS COLD...TO NEUTRAL ADVCTN CONTS ON
THE REAR FLANK OF THE EXITING LOW. TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES UNDR THE
AVGS WERE MASSAGED USING SREF MEANS AND BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHRTWV RIDGING IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS RMNG PCPN CHCS TNGT...AND
INTO FRIDAY.

THEREAFTER...NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF HAVE CONSISTENTLY DEPICTED THE
APCH...AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK SHRTWV IN NW FLOW ON FRIDAY. GIVEN
DEPICTIONS OF A LTD MID LVL MSTR FIELD...CAPPED LOW LVLS AFTR MID
LVL WARMING...AND AN ABSENT PCPN SPPRTG OMEGA FIELD...HAVE DECIDED
TO ELIMINATE THE ALREADY SLGT POP FORECAST IN FAVOR A STRENGTHENING
DRY TREND.

ANOTHER SUCH DISTURBANCE IS PROJECTED FOR A SATURDAY CROSSING...BUT
THE RAIN POTENTIAL LKS EQUALLY SLIM GIVEN SIMILIAR LIMITATIONS AS
FRIDAY AS WELL AS A MORE NWD TRACK OF THE LOW CNTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS FEATURE MODERATION TWD THE SEASONAL AVGS...FORECAST
FOR WAS TWEAKED AGAIN USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS AND SREF MEANS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS THRU ERLY
NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. A WKNG TROF IS PROGGED FOR A
MID WK PASSAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E. SEASONALLY COOL WKEND TEMPS
ARE EXP TO INCR TO ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NTO TNGT WITH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. DRY AIR SHOULD ALLIOW CLOUDS TO BREAK
UP FROM THE NORTH AND WEST AFT 04Z.  CLEARING AT ZZV MAY BE EARLY
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...WINDS MAY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY FG AT A MINIMUM
AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF ZZV TAF FOR NOW.

.AVIATION /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

JSH/RLX








000
FXUS61 KPHI 221544
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1144 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT SLOWLY
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM SHOULD
BE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THEN MOVE
INTO NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
TOWARD OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE MID LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE WATERS OFF VIRGINIA AROUND
1130 AM AND THE SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES TO THE
EAST NORTHEAST. THE MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EAST
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AS THE SURFACE REFLECTION LIFTS SLOWLY TO THE
NORTH NORTHEAST.

THE PRECIPITATION STREAM THAT WAS FEEDING INTO CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY, SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND THE UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WAS IN THE PROCESS OF PIVOTING AROUND
THE LOW LATE THIS MORNING. IT HAD BECOME LESS FOCUSED THAN IT WAS
DURING THE NIGHT AND RAINFALL RATES OVER LAND CONTINUED TO
DECREASE.

AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY OUT TO SEA, THE ORIENTATION OF THE
PRECIPITATION FEED IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST OVER OUR REGION AND IT SHOULD SETTLE OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S TODAY DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN ALONG WITH A BRISK NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW TO MAKE A MOVE
TO THE NORTH.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. MAINLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH HEAVIER RAIN POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE
UPPER LOW.

SOME COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BUT WE WILL
STILL HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. IT WILL FEEL COLDER AS THE WINDS
REMAIN UP THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A POTENT CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WILL TAKE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WITH IT AS IT TRACKS TOWARD
THE NOVA SCOTIA AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AS ENERGY DRIVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, A BUILDING RIDGE OCCURS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS
WILL PROBABLY FORCE ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DOWN INTO THE
NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER AS IT CLOSES OFF IT LOOKS TO
BE TO OUR NORTHEAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THEN
ARRIVES IN THE EAST MONDAY, HOWEVER WITH THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW
PATTERN THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRIVING EASTWARD
LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN BLENDED THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE IN WITH
CONTINUITY. SOME TWEAKS WERE THEN MADE AFTER ADDITIONAL
COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF A POTENT CLOSED LOW IS
FORECAST TO BE JUST TO OUR EAST THURSDAY, BUT THEN SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY, THIS WILL TAKE A STRENGTHENING
SURFACE LOW WITH IT. WE WILL MAINTAIN MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
CLOSED LOW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AREAS THURSDAY. THE MAIN FORCING THOUGH LOOKS TO
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. THEREFORE, SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
HIGHEST /LIKELY/ POPS ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE MORNING WITH A
DECREASE SOUTHWARD AND DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS DRYING
SHOULD WORK IN DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW
AND SURFACE LOW SHIFT FARTHER TO OUR NORTHEAST. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT COMBINED WITH A STRONGER WIND FIELD AND DEEPER MIXING
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS, WITH SOME
DECREASE BOTH NIGHTS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY
RESULT IN SOME CLOUDS FOR A TIME.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH
SATURDAY, HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER A LIMITED AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERALLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND,
WHICH MEANS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DOWN INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A BREEZY DAY MAY OCCUR AS MIXING
DEEPENS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES TOWARD THE
EAST ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WARMING
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS TIME FRAME, WITH
JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW 00Z WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS SHOULD FAVOR THE MVFR RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
(GENERALLY 1000 TO 2000 FEET) WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. CEILINGS MAY
BRIEFLY RISE INTO THE VFR CATEGORY OR FALL TO IFR, ESPECIALLY IN
ANY AREAS OF MODERATE RAINFALL. A GRADUAL LIFTING OF CEILINGS IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE CONTINUATION OF PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN.

THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO FAVOR THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST FOR TODAY
WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 8 TO 14 KNOTS AND GUSTS INTO THE 20S.
THE WIND DIRECTION IS FORECAST TO BACK TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST
FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...TIMES OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME SHOWERS, ENDING IN
THE EVENING AND BECOME VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 KNOTS, DIMINISHING SOME AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
25 KNOTS, DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE IS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE UPPER PART OF DELAWARE
BAY AND A GALE WARNING ELSEWHERE IN OUR MARINE AREA.

TODAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS TODAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH
NORTHEAST EARLY BEFORE BECOMING MORE NORTH NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL
BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS ON THE OCEAN FRONT AND
LOWER DELAWARE BAY. THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY WILL SEE SIMILAR WINDS
WITH GUSTS IN THE LOWER 30 KNOT RANGE. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO
7 FEET ON THE OCEAN FRONT.

TONIGHT...THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES ON THE OCEAN AND LOWER BAY
TONIGHT. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT AND THEN START TO DIMINISH A
BIT TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING AS THE GRADIENT STARTS TO LIGHTEN UP.
SEAS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN OCEAN
ZONES AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY FOR THE MORNING AS GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS HANG ON SOME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES
FOR UPPER DELAWARE BAY, AND ONE WILL BE NEEDED ELSEWHERE FOLLOWING
THE GALE WARNING.

FRIDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE
ANTICIPATED ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN ZONES AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND MIXING CONTINUES. THIS SHOULD DECREASE AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE FLOW SHOULD INCREASE SOME SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THIS COULD RESULT IN GUSTS
TO ABOUT 25 KNOTS FOR A TIME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>452.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ431-453>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 221544
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1144 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT SLOWLY
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM SHOULD
BE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THEN MOVE
INTO NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
TOWARD OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE MID LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE WATERS OFF VIRGINIA AROUND
1130 AM AND THE SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES TO THE
EAST NORTHEAST. THE MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EAST
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AS THE SURFACE REFLECTION LIFTS SLOWLY TO THE
NORTH NORTHEAST.

THE PRECIPITATION STREAM THAT WAS FEEDING INTO CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY, SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND THE UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WAS IN THE PROCESS OF PIVOTING AROUND
THE LOW LATE THIS MORNING. IT HAD BECOME LESS FOCUSED THAN IT WAS
DURING THE NIGHT AND RAINFALL RATES OVER LAND CONTINUED TO
DECREASE.

AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY OUT TO SEA, THE ORIENTATION OF THE
PRECIPITATION FEED IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST OVER OUR REGION AND IT SHOULD SETTLE OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S TODAY DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN ALONG WITH A BRISK NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW TO MAKE A MOVE
TO THE NORTH.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. MAINLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH HEAVIER RAIN POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE
UPPER LOW.

SOME COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BUT WE WILL
STILL HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. IT WILL FEEL COLDER AS THE WINDS
REMAIN UP THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A POTENT CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WILL TAKE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WITH IT AS IT TRACKS TOWARD
THE NOVA SCOTIA AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AS ENERGY DRIVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, A BUILDING RIDGE OCCURS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS
WILL PROBABLY FORCE ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DOWN INTO THE
NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER AS IT CLOSES OFF IT LOOKS TO
BE TO OUR NORTHEAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THEN
ARRIVES IN THE EAST MONDAY, HOWEVER WITH THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW
PATTERN THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRIVING EASTWARD
LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN BLENDED THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE IN WITH
CONTINUITY. SOME TWEAKS WERE THEN MADE AFTER ADDITIONAL
COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF A POTENT CLOSED LOW IS
FORECAST TO BE JUST TO OUR EAST THURSDAY, BUT THEN SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY, THIS WILL TAKE A STRENGTHENING
SURFACE LOW WITH IT. WE WILL MAINTAIN MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
CLOSED LOW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AREAS THURSDAY. THE MAIN FORCING THOUGH LOOKS TO
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. THEREFORE, SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
HIGHEST /LIKELY/ POPS ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE MORNING WITH A
DECREASE SOUTHWARD AND DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS DRYING
SHOULD WORK IN DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW
AND SURFACE LOW SHIFT FARTHER TO OUR NORTHEAST. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT COMBINED WITH A STRONGER WIND FIELD AND DEEPER MIXING
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS, WITH SOME
DECREASE BOTH NIGHTS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY
RESULT IN SOME CLOUDS FOR A TIME.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH
SATURDAY, HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER A LIMITED AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERALLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND,
WHICH MEANS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DOWN INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A BREEZY DAY MAY OCCUR AS MIXING
DEEPENS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES TOWARD THE
EAST ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WARMING
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS TIME FRAME, WITH
JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW 00Z WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS SHOULD FAVOR THE MVFR RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
(GENERALLY 1000 TO 2000 FEET) WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. CEILINGS MAY
BRIEFLY RISE INTO THE VFR CATEGORY OR FALL TO IFR, ESPECIALLY IN
ANY AREAS OF MODERATE RAINFALL. A GRADUAL LIFTING OF CEILINGS IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE CONTINUATION OF PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN.

THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO FAVOR THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST FOR TODAY
WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 8 TO 14 KNOTS AND GUSTS INTO THE 20S.
THE WIND DIRECTION IS FORECAST TO BACK TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST
FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...TIMES OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME SHOWERS, ENDING IN
THE EVENING AND BECOME VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 KNOTS, DIMINISHING SOME AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
25 KNOTS, DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE IS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE UPPER PART OF DELAWARE
BAY AND A GALE WARNING ELSEWHERE IN OUR MARINE AREA.

TODAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS TODAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH
NORTHEAST EARLY BEFORE BECOMING MORE NORTH NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL
BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS ON THE OCEAN FRONT AND
LOWER DELAWARE BAY. THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY WILL SEE SIMILAR WINDS
WITH GUSTS IN THE LOWER 30 KNOT RANGE. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO
7 FEET ON THE OCEAN FRONT.

TONIGHT...THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES ON THE OCEAN AND LOWER BAY
TONIGHT. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT AND THEN START TO DIMINISH A
BIT TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING AS THE GRADIENT STARTS TO LIGHTEN UP.
SEAS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN OCEAN
ZONES AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY FOR THE MORNING AS GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS HANG ON SOME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES
FOR UPPER DELAWARE BAY, AND ONE WILL BE NEEDED ELSEWHERE FOLLOWING
THE GALE WARNING.

FRIDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE
ANTICIPATED ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN ZONES AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND MIXING CONTINUES. THIS SHOULD DECREASE AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE FLOW SHOULD INCREASE SOME SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THIS COULD RESULT IN GUSTS
TO ABOUT 25 KNOTS FOR A TIME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>452.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ431-453>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221534
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1134 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
SLOW WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS 1007 MB SFC LOW JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SHORE. UPR CLOSED LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER HAMPTON ROADS AND WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE THRU 18Z. BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS ACROSS THE MOUTH
OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND OFFSHORE JUST PAST 20 NM. LATEST SRM
PRODUCTS FROM THE LOCAL 88D`S SHOW SOME WEAK ROTATION WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS OFFSHORE...AND WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF WE HEAR
ABOUT A WATERSPOUT OR TWO. ANOTHER BAND OF RAIN IS NOW MOVING
SOUTH ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHICH WILL ALLOW RAIN TO LAST INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN THESE AREAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN VA INCLUDING HAMPTON ROADS. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ACROSS OUR SW COUNTIES WHERE SOME SUN WILL CONTINUE TO
PEAK THROUGH THE CLOUDS. HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A COUPLE MORE
DEGREES FOR TODAY AS HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 DEG IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS OFFSHORE THIS AFTN...DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN TO 20% OR LESS
OVER SW ZONES BY 21Z...WHILE FAVORABLE LIFT AND MOISTURE PERSIST
FARTHER EAST. THIS SEEMS TO BE SUPPORTED WELL BY LATEST HI RES
MODELS. WILL MAINTAIN 60-80% POPS OVER THE ERN 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE
CWA THROUGH 21Z. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK UP FROM THE SW LATER
IN THE AFTN...MAY SEE SOME PEEKS OF SUN ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL VA BY
MID-LATE AFTN BUT OVERALL IT WILL STAY BKN/OVC. OTHER FEATURE TO
NOTE WILL BE THE INCREASING NW WINDS BY AFTN AS THE SFC LOW
INTENSIFIES FAIRLY RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST. GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY LATER AFTN/EVENING (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST).

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE TONIGHT. HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ERN SHORE THIS EVENING...GENLY ONLY 20%-30%
POPS OR LOWER ELSEWHERE AFTER 00Z. DECREASING CLOUDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA/NC OVERNIGHT. REMAINING BREEZY TO
WINDY ESP NE SECTIONS. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 40S ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95 TO THE LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT IN BETWEEN SUB 1000 MB SFC
LOW OFF LONG ISLAND AND 1020 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY.
NAM SOLUTION IS OUTLIER WITH RESPECT TO IT`S LOCATION OF THE SFC
LOW WELL NORTH OF OTHER MODELS ON THU. THUS...NAM WINDS ARE
LIGHTER DUE TO A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT. FAVOR WINDS CLOSER TO A
GFS/ECMWF BLEND...WHICH YIELDS  BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACRS THE ERN SHORE...25-30 MPH ELSEWHERE. A
20%-30% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE.
STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR
SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY N/E TO PARTLY SUNNY S/W (MAYBE
MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE FAR SW). HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 F
ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE UPPER 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND
SOUTH CENTRAL VA. MOSTLY CLEAR SW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE THU NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND
MILDER TEMPS. HIGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS WELL TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY
MIDWEEK. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY (PERHAPS WARMER TUESDAY). LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LO PRES WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN
WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND AND CANADIAN MARITIME CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. UPR LVL LO
WILL SWING OVR THE AREA THEN OFF THE CST TODAY INTO THIS
EVENG...BRINGING LWR CIGS (MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR) AND -RA TO THE TAF
SITES. NW OR N WINDS WILL PICK UP LATER THIS MORNG AND REMAIN
RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY INTO TNGT MOST TAF SITES. -RA WILL LAST
THE LONGEST OVR THE LWR MD/VA ERN SHR. BREEZY/WINDY OVR ERN HALF
OF THE REGION THRU THU...AS STRONG LO GRADUALLY MOVES AWAY TO THE
NE. COULD STILL BE SHOWERS OVR LWR MD (SBY) ALSO. HI PRES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR FRI AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
LO PRES WILL FORM OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND
CANADIAN MARITIME CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO ARND 30 KT THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG.
THEN...FM THIS EVENG THRU THU AFTN...GUSTS TO ARND 35 KT WILL BE
LIKELY OVR AT LEAST THE CHES BAY ZNS AND ON THE CSTL WTRS FM
FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LGT. THUS...HAVE ISSUED SCA THIS
MORNING/AFTN RAMPING UP TO A GALE WARNING IN THESE LOCATIONS FOR THIS
EVENG INTO/THRU THU AFTN. OTHRWISE...EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS OVR THE
ENTIRE WTRS FM THIS MORNG INTO EARLY FRI MORNG...AS STRNG LO PRES
IS SLOW TO MOVE AWAY TO THE NE. WITH THE FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FM
THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-7 FT AND TIDAL
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS
SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...JDM/LKB
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221534
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1134 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
SLOW WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS 1007 MB SFC LOW JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SHORE. UPR CLOSED LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER HAMPTON ROADS AND WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE THRU 18Z. BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS ACROSS THE MOUTH
OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND OFFSHORE JUST PAST 20 NM. LATEST SRM
PRODUCTS FROM THE LOCAL 88D`S SHOW SOME WEAK ROTATION WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS OFFSHORE...AND WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF WE HEAR
ABOUT A WATERSPOUT OR TWO. ANOTHER BAND OF RAIN IS NOW MOVING
SOUTH ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHICH WILL ALLOW RAIN TO LAST INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN THESE AREAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN VA INCLUDING HAMPTON ROADS. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ACROSS OUR SW COUNTIES WHERE SOME SUN WILL CONTINUE TO
PEAK THROUGH THE CLOUDS. HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A COUPLE MORE
DEGREES FOR TODAY AS HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 DEG IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS OFFSHORE THIS AFTN...DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN TO 20% OR LESS
OVER SW ZONES BY 21Z...WHILE FAVORABLE LIFT AND MOISTURE PERSIST
FARTHER EAST. THIS SEEMS TO BE SUPPORTED WELL BY LATEST HI RES
MODELS. WILL MAINTAIN 60-80% POPS OVER THE ERN 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE
CWA THROUGH 21Z. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK UP FROM THE SW LATER
IN THE AFTN...MAY SEE SOME PEEKS OF SUN ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL VA BY
MID-LATE AFTN BUT OVERALL IT WILL STAY BKN/OVC. OTHER FEATURE TO
NOTE WILL BE THE INCREASING NW WINDS BY AFTN AS THE SFC LOW
INTENSIFIES FAIRLY RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST. GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY LATER AFTN/EVENING (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST).

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE TONIGHT. HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ERN SHORE THIS EVENING...GENLY ONLY 20%-30%
POPS OR LOWER ELSEWHERE AFTER 00Z. DECREASING CLOUDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA/NC OVERNIGHT. REMAINING BREEZY TO
WINDY ESP NE SECTIONS. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 40S ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95 TO THE LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT IN BETWEEN SUB 1000 MB SFC
LOW OFF LONG ISLAND AND 1020 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY.
NAM SOLUTION IS OUTLIER WITH RESPECT TO IT`S LOCATION OF THE SFC
LOW WELL NORTH OF OTHER MODELS ON THU. THUS...NAM WINDS ARE
LIGHTER DUE TO A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT. FAVOR WINDS CLOSER TO A
GFS/ECMWF BLEND...WHICH YIELDS  BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACRS THE ERN SHORE...25-30 MPH ELSEWHERE. A
20%-30% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE.
STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR
SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY N/E TO PARTLY SUNNY S/W (MAYBE
MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE FAR SW). HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 F
ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE UPPER 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND
SOUTH CENTRAL VA. MOSTLY CLEAR SW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE THU NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND
MILDER TEMPS. HIGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS WELL TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY
MIDWEEK. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY (PERHAPS WARMER TUESDAY). LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LO PRES WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN
WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND AND CANADIAN MARITIME CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. UPR LVL LO
WILL SWING OVR THE AREA THEN OFF THE CST TODAY INTO THIS
EVENG...BRINGING LWR CIGS (MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR) AND -RA TO THE TAF
SITES. NW OR N WINDS WILL PICK UP LATER THIS MORNG AND REMAIN
RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY INTO TNGT MOST TAF SITES. -RA WILL LAST
THE LONGEST OVR THE LWR MD/VA ERN SHR. BREEZY/WINDY OVR ERN HALF
OF THE REGION THRU THU...AS STRONG LO GRADUALLY MOVES AWAY TO THE
NE. COULD STILL BE SHOWERS OVR LWR MD (SBY) ALSO. HI PRES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR FRI AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
LO PRES WILL FORM OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND
CANADIAN MARITIME CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO ARND 30 KT THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG.
THEN...FM THIS EVENG THRU THU AFTN...GUSTS TO ARND 35 KT WILL BE
LIKELY OVR AT LEAST THE CHES BAY ZNS AND ON THE CSTL WTRS FM
FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LGT. THUS...HAVE ISSUED SCA THIS
MORNING/AFTN RAMPING UP TO A GALE WARNING IN THESE LOCATIONS FOR THIS
EVENG INTO/THRU THU AFTN. OTHRWISE...EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS OVR THE
ENTIRE WTRS FM THIS MORNG INTO EARLY FRI MORNG...AS STRNG LO PRES
IS SLOW TO MOVE AWAY TO THE NE. WITH THE FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FM
THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-7 FT AND TIDAL
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS
SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...JDM/LKB
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG







000
FXUS61 KLWX 221440
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1040 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FRIDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS MOMENTARILY STATIONARY EAST OF THE
DELMARVA/TIDEWATER SHORE. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE NE TOWARDS CAPE COD. RAIN WRAPPING AROUND THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW CONTINUES TO IMPACT EASTERN/SOUTHERN
MD...WASHINGTON DC AND THE I-05 CORRIDOR DOWN TO FREDERICKSBURG
AND POINTS SOUTH. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO STAY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD
GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND NORTH. UPSLOPE SHOWERS ALSO
EXPECTED ALONG THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW AND COOLER AIR ALOFT IS
ADVECTED INTO THE REGION.

MAX TEMPS LIMITED BY CLOUDS AND PRECIP...AROUND 60F FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. LOW 60S FOR CHO AND SHD BASED ON EXPECTED SUNSHINE AND
DOWNSLOPING NWLY FLOW WITHOUT COLD AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THERE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH WHICH WILL HELP KEEP THE STRONG
WIND FIELD ABOVE THE SFC. THEREFORE...THE ONLY EXPECTED WIND
ADVISORY THREAT FOR TONIGHT IS THOUGHT TO BE ON RIDGETOPS. MIN
TEMPS MID TO UPR 40S WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY...GUSTY. THINK THE 00Z GFS IS TOO HIGH...BUT WIND GUSTS OF
30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC. MAX TEMPS UPR 50S TO LOW 60S IN THE WELL MIXED
ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TIME OF PARTIAL ECLIPSE FOR DC THU - 5:52 PM TO 6:17 PM. BALT IS
5:51 TO 6:15. APPROX 1/4 OF SUN WL BE COVERED...SWRN PART OF THE SKY.
QUSTN WL BE WHETHER IT WL BE VSBL DUE TO CLDS...WHICH SHOULD BE
DIMINISHING DURG THIS TIME PD. BEST CHCS FOR VIEWING WL MOST LKLY
BE IN THE WRN PART OF THE CWA AND CENTRAL SHEN VLLY.

CUTOFF LOW LOOKS TO BE NEAR CAPE COD FRI MRNG. HIGH PRES BLDG INTO
MID ALTC SHOULD PROVIDE GOOD WX FOR THE END OF THE WORKWK AND THEN A
VERY PLSNT WKND. HIGHS IN THE MU60S...LOWS GNRLY IN THE 40S XCPT
L50S IN THE CITIES. THIS IS PRETTY CLOSE TO CLIMO NORMS FOR THE
LATTER PART OF OCT.

A DRY CD FNT MAY COME THRU THE AREA SUN...THEN IT`S LOOKING LK A
BIG RDG OF HIGH PRES MOVES OVR THE E CST FOR THE 1ST PART OF NEXT
WK. HIGHS A70 LOWS IN THE 40S XCPT L50S IN THE CITY AND ALONG THE BAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF BY THIS AFTERNOON AT DC AREA
TERMINALS. BALTIMORE AIRPORTS WILL BE LAST TO SEE RAIN END LATE
TODAY. PRIMARILY MVFR CONDS...BUT PDS OF VFR AT KDCA/KIAD WHEN
LOWER CLOUDS SCATTER. NW WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT BY
THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...GUSTS
GENERALLY 30 TO 35 KT.

VFR CONDS XPCTD THRU THE XTND PD. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO ABATE THU NGT.

&&

.MARINE...
PERIODIC RAIN TODAY. SCA THROUGH TODAY AS NWLY FLOW INCREASES.
GALES OVER AT LEAST THE SRN MD WATERS TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT
INCREASES. MAY NEED GALES FOR ALL WATERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SCA CONDS LKLY TO CONT THU NGT AND FRI. IT LOOKS LK WKND BOATING
CONDS SHOULD BE GOOD. WATER TEMPS IN THE M60S.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>532-
     535-536-538>540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ533-
     534-537-541-543.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ533-534-537-541-543.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...AVIATION AND MARINE UPDATES...KCS








000
FXUS61 KPHI 221402
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1002 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT SLOWLY
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM SHOULD
BE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THEN MOVE
INTO NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
TOWARD OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE MID LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE WATERS OFF VIRGINIA AROUND
1000 AM AND THE SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED ABOUT 175 MILES TO THE
EAST. THE MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EAST NORTHEASTWARD
TODAY AS THE SURFACE REFLECTION LIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NORTH
NORTHEAST.

THE PRECIPITATION STREAM THAT WAS FEEDING INTO CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY, SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND THE UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WAS IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING AROUND
1000 AM. IT HAD BECOME LESS FOCUSED THAN IT WAS DURING THE NIGHT
AND RAINFALL RATES OVER LAND HAD DECREASED.

AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY OUT TO SEA, THE ORIENTATION OF THE
PRECIPITATION FEED IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST OVER OUR REGION AND IT SHOULD SETTLE OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S TODAY DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN ALONG WITH A BRISK NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW TO MAKE A MOVE
TO THE NORTH.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. MAINLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH HEAVIER RAIN POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE
UPPER LOW.

SOME COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BUT WE WILL
STILL HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. IT WILL FEEL COLDER AS THE WINDS
REMAIN UP THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A POTENT CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WILL TAKE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WITH IT AS IT TRACKS TOWARD
THE NOVA SCOTIA AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AS ENERGY DRIVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, A BUILDING RIDGE OCCURS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS
WILL PROBABLY FORCE ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DOWN INTO THE
NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER AS IT CLOSES OFF IT LOOKS TO
BE TO OUR NORTHEAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THEN
ARRIVES IN THE EAST MONDAY, HOWEVER WITH THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW
PATTERN THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRIVING EASTWARD
LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN BLENDED THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE IN WITH
CONTINUITY. SOME TWEAKS WERE THEN MADE AFTER ADDITIONAL
COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF A POTENT CLOSED LOW IS
FORECAST TO BE JUST TO OUR EAST THURSDAY, BUT THEN SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY, THIS WILL TAKE A STRENGTHENING
SURFACE LOW WITH IT. WE WILL MAINTAIN MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
CLOSED LOW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AREAS THURSDAY. THE MAIN FORCING THOUGH LOOKS TO
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. THEREFORE, SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
HIGHEST /LIKELY/ POPS ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE MORNING WITH A
DECREASE SOUTHWARD AND DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS DRYING
SHOULD WORK IN DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW
AND SURFACE LOW SHIFT FARTHER TO OUR NORTHEAST. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT COMBINED WITH A STRONGER WIND FIELD AND DEEPER MIXING
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS, WITH SOME
DECREASE BOTH NIGHTS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY
RESULT IN SOME CLOUDS FOR A TIME.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH
SATURDAY, HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER A LIMITED AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERALLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND,
WHICH MEANS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DOWN INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A BREEZY DAY MAY OCCUR AS MIXING
DEEPENS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES TOWARD THE
EAST ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WARMING
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS TIME FRAME, WITH
JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW 00Z WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS SHOULD FAVOR THE MVFR RANGE THROUGH THE DAY WITH PERIODS
OF RAIN. CEILINGS MAY OCCASIONALLY RISE INTO THE VFR CATEGORY.
ALSO, THEY MAY BRIEFLY FALL TO IFR, ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS OF
MODERATE RAINFALL. THE SAME TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT.

THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO FAVOR THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST FOR TODAY
WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 8 TO 14 KNOTS AND GUSTS INTO THE 20S.
THE WIND DIRECTION IS FORECAST TO BACK TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST
FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...TIMES OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME SHOWERS, ENDING IN
THE EVENING AND BECOME VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 KNOTS, DIMINISHING SOME AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
25 KNOTS, DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE IS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE UPPER PART OF DELAWARE
BAY AND A GALE WARNING ELSEWHERE IN OUR MARINE AREA.

TODAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS TODAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH
NORTHEAST EARLY BEFORE BECOMING MORE NORTH NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL
BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS ON THE OCEAN FRONT AND
LOWER DELAWARE BAY. THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY WILL SEE SIMILAR WINDS
WITH GUSTS IN THE LOWER 30 KNOT RANGE. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO
7 FEET ON THE OCEAN FRONT.

TONIGHT...THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES ON THE OCEAN AND LOWER BAY
TONIGHT. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT AND THEN START TO DIMINISH A
BIT TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING AS THE GRADIENT STARTS TO LIGHTEN UP.
SEAS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN OCEAN
ZONES AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY FOR THE MORNING AS GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS HANG ON SOME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES
FOR UPPER DELAWARE BAY, AND ONE WILL BE NEEDED ELSEWHERE FOLLOWING
THE GALE WARNING.

FRIDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE
ANTICIPATED ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN ZONES AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND MIXING CONTINUES. THIS SHOULD DECREASE AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE FLOW SHOULD INCREASE SOME SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THIS COULD RESULT IN GUSTS
TO ABOUT 25 KNOTS FOR A TIME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>452.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ431-453>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221231
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
831 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
SLOW WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE AS OF 830 AM EDT...ISOLD TSTMS STILL ONGOING ACROSS THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND FAR SE VA AS OF 12Z. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE TO WARRANT MENTION OF ISOLD TSTMS ACROSS THESE
AREAS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW
SHIFTS EAST AND OFFSHORE. HAVE MADE THAT ADJUSTED TO THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO SHOW BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS (I-95 CORRIDOR) THROUGH THE
MORNING...THEN SHIFTING FARTHER EAST TO THE EASTERN SHORE THIS
AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS ~1007 MB SFC LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENING OFF THE SE VA/NE NC COAST...WITH STRONG UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER WEST CENTRAL VA. AREA OF SHOWERS OVERSPREADING
PIEDMONT EARLY THIS MORNING UNDER THE COLD POOL ALOFT...WITH
ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS PUSHING OFF THE SE
VA/NE NC COAST ASSOCIATED W/ SFC COLD FRONT AND WIND SHIFT
BOUNDARY. LATEST RAP AND SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE ON THE ORDER
OF 300-500 J/KG AS OF 09Z...SHIFTING OFFSHORE PRIOR TO 12Z SO WILL
MAINTAIN MENTION OF TSTMS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THAT TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE TOO STABLE IN LOW LEVELS FOR ANY ADDITIONAL
TSTMS.

LATER TODAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW SLOWLY PUSHES ESE AND SHOULD BE
CENTERED OFFSHORE BY 15-18Z. WILL CARRY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
(60-80%) POPS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE MORNING AS DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE FAVORABLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD (CHC POPS
ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR NE NC WHERE LESS MOISTURE
RESIDES). AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS OFFSHORE...DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN TO 20% OR LESS
OVER SW ZONES...WHILE FAVORABLE LIFT AND MOISTURE PERSIST FARTHER
NORTH AND EAST. WILL MAINTAIN 60-80% POPS OVER THE ERN 1/2 TO 1/3
OF THE CWA THROUGH 20Z. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK UP FROM THE
SW LATER IN THE AFTN...MAY SEE SOME PEEKS OF SUN ACRS SOUTH
CENTRAL VA BY MID- LATE AFTN BUT OVERALL IT WILL STAY BKN/OVC.
HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW MORE DEGREES GIVEN CURRENT READINGS
IN THE LOWER-MID 50S...GENLY NO BETTER THAN THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60 F FOR MOST AREAS...WARMEST AREAS WILL BE OVER THE FAR SOUTH
AND ON THE ERN SHORE WHERE LOWER 60S ARE FORECAST. OTHER FEATURE TO NOTE
WILL BE THE INCREASING NW WINDS BY AFTN AS THE SFC LOW INTENSIFIES
FAIRLY RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST. GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY LATER AFTN/EVENING (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST).

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE TONIGHT. HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ERN SHORE THIS EVENING...GENLY ONLY 20%-30%
POPS OR LOWER ELSEWHERE AFTER 00Z. DECREASING CLOUDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA/NC OVERNIGHT. REMAINING BREEZY TO
WINDY ESP NE SECTIONS. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 40S ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95 TO THE LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT IN BETWEEN SUB 1000 MB SFC
LOW OFF LONG ISLAND AND 1020 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY.
NAM SOLUTION IS OUTLIER WITH RESPECT TO IT`S LOCATION OF THE SFC
LOW WELL NORTH OF OTHER MODELS ON THU. THUS...NAM WINDS ARE
LIGHTER DUE TO A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT. FAVOR WINDS CLOSER TO A
GFS/ECMWF BLEND...WHICH YIELDS  BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACRS THE ERN SHORE...25-30 MPH ELSEWHERE. A
20%-30% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE.
STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR
SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY N/E TO PARTLY SUNNY S/W (MAYBE
MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE FAR SW). HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 F
ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE UPPER 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND
SOUTH CENTRAL VA. MOSTLY CLEAR SW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE THU NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND
MILDER TEMPS. HIGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS WELL TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY
MIDWEEK. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY (PERHAPS WARMER TUESDAY). LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LO PRES WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN
WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND AND CANADIAN MARITIME CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. UPR LVL LO
WILL SWING OVR THE AREA THEN OFF THE CST TODAY INTO THIS
EVENG...BRINGING LWR CIGS (MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR) AND -RA TO THE TAF
SITES. NW OR N WINDS WILL PICK UP LATER THIS MORNG AND REMAIN
RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY INTO TNGT MOST TAF SITES. -RA WILL LAST
THE LONGEST OVR THE LWR MD/VA ERN SHR. BREEZY/WINDY OVR ERN HALF
OF THE REGION THRU THU...AS STRONG LO GRADUALLY MOVES AWAY TO THE
NE. COULD STILL BE SHOWERS OVR LWR MD (SBY) ALSO. HI PRES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR FRI AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
LO PRES WILL FORM OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND
CANADIAN MARITIME CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO ARND 30 KT THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG.
THEN...FM THIS EVENG THRU THU AFTN...GUSTS TO ARND 35 KT WILL BE
LIKELY OVR AT LEAST THE CHES BAY ZNS AND ON THE CSTL WTRS FM
FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LGT. THUS...HAVE ISSUED SCA THIS
MORNING/AFTN RAMPING UP TO A GALE WARNING IN THESE LOCATIONS FOR THIS
EVENG INTO/THRU THU AFTN. OTHRWISE...EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS OVR THE
ENTIRE WTRS FM THIS MORNG INTO EARLY FRI MORNG...AS STRNG LO PRES
IS SLOW TO MOVE AWAY TO THE NE. WITH THE FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FM
THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-7 FT AND TIDAL
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS
SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...JDM/LKB
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221214
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
814 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
SLOW WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS ~1007 MB SFC LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFF THE
SE VA/NE NC COAST...WITH STRONG UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WEST
CENTRAL VA. AREA OF SHOWERS OVERSPREADING PIEDMONT EARLY THIS
MORNING UNDER THE COLD POOL ALOFT...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS PUSHING OFF THE SE VA/NE NC COAST ASSOCIATED W/
SFC COLD FRONT AND WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY. LATEST RAP AND SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 300-500 J/KG AS OF
09Z...SHIFTING OFFSHORE PRIOR TO 12Z SO WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF
TSTMS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THAT TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE...SHOULD
BE TOO STABLE IN LOW LEVELS FOR ANY ADDITIONAL TSTMS.

LATER TODAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW SLOWLY PUSHES ESE AND SHOULD BE
CENTERED OFFSHORE BY 15-18Z. WILL CARRY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
(60-80%) POPS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE MORNING AS DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE FAVORABLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD (CHC POPS
ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR NE NC WHERE LESS MOISTURE
RESIDES). AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS OFFSHORE...DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN TO 20% OR LESS
OVER SW ZONES...WHILE FAVORABLE LIFT AND MOISTURE PERSIST FARTHER
NORTH AND EAST. WILL MAINTAIN 60-80% POPS OVER THE ERN 1/2 TO 1/3
OF THE CWA THROUGH 20Z. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK UP FROM THE
SW LATER IN THE AFTN...MAY SEE SOME PEEKS OF SUN ACRS SOUTH
CENTRAL VA BY MID- LATE AFTN BUT OVERALL IT WILL STAY BKN/OVC.
HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW MORE DEGREES GIVEN CURRENT READINGS
IN THE LOWER-MID 50S...GENLY NO BETTER THAN THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60 F FOR MOST AREAS...WARMEST AREAS WILL BE OVER THE FAR SOUTH
AND ON THE ERN SHORE WHERE LOWER 60S ARE FORECAST. OTHER FEATURE TO NOTE
WILL BE THE INCREASING NW WINDS BY AFTN AS THE SFC LOW INTENSIFIES
FAIRLY RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST. GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY LATER AFTN/EVENING (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST).

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE TONIGHT. HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ERN SHORE THIS EVENING...GENLY ONLY 20%-30%
POPS OR LOWER ELSEWHERE AFTER 00Z. DECREASING CLOUDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA/NC OVERNIGHT. REMAINING BREEZY TO
WINDY ESP NE SECTIONS. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 40S ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95 TO THE LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT IN BETWEEN SUB 1000 MB SFC
LOW OFF LONG ISLAND AND 1020 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY.
NAM SOLUTION IS OUTLIER WITH RESPECT TO IT`S LOCATION OF THE SFC
LOW WELL NORTH OF OTHER MODELS ON THU. THUS...NAM WINDS ARE
LIGHTER DUE TO A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT. FAVOR WINDS CLOSER TO A
GFS/ECMWF BLEND...WHICH YIELDS  BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACRS THE ERN SHORE...25-30 MPH ELSEWHERE. A
20%-30% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE.
STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR
SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY N/E TO PARTLY SUNNY S/W (MAYBE
MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE FAR SW). HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 F
ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE UPPER 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND
SOUTH CENTRAL VA. MOSTLY CLEAR SW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE THU NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND
MILDER TEMPS. HIGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS WELL TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY
MIDWEEK. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY (PERHAPS WARMER TUESDAY). LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LO PRES WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN
WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND AND CANADIAN MARITIME CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. UPR LVL LO
WILL SWING OVR THE AREA THEN OFF THE CST TODAY INTO THIS
EVENG...BRINGING LWR CIGS (MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR) AND -RA TO THE TAF
SITES. NW OR N WINDS WILL PICK UP LATER THIS MORNG AND REMAIN
RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY INTO TNGT MOST TAF SITES. -RA WILL LAST
THE LONGEST OVR THE LWR MD/VA ERN SHR. BREEZY/WINDY OVR ERN HALF
OF THE REGION THRU THU...AS STRONG LO GRADUALLY MOVES AWAY TO THE
NE. COULD STILL BE SHOWERS OVR LWR MD (SBY) ALSO. HI PRES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR FRI AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
LO PRES WILL FORM OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND
CANADIAN MARITIME CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO ARND 30 KT THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG.
THEN...FM THIS EVENG THRU THU AFTN...GUSTS TO ARND 35 KT WILL BE
LIKELY OVR AT LEAST THE CHES BAY ZNS AND ON THE CSTL WTRS FM
FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LGT. THUS...HAVE ISSUED SCA THIS
MORNING/AFTN RAMPING UP TO A GALE WARNING IN THESE LOCATIONS FOR THIS
EVENG INTO/THRU THU AFTN. OTHRWISE...EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS OVR THE
ENTIRE WTRS FM THIS AFTN INTO EARLY FRI MORNG...AS STRNG LO PRES
IS SLOW TO MOVE AWAY TO THE NE. WITH THE FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FM
THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-7 FT AND TIDAL
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS
SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221055
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
655 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS UPPER LOW PRESSURE
EXITS EASTWARD. A STRENGTHENING HIGH WILL DRY AND WARM THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY REGION INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MINOR TWEAKS TO THE NR TERM GRIDS BASED ON OBS AND RADAR FOR THE
PRE DAWN UPDT.

PREVIOUS DISC...MATURATION OF LOW PRES IS STILL MDL PROGGED OVR
THE COAST BY DAYS END AND OVRALL SBSDNC WL GRADUALLY SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVR MOST OF THE UPR OH VALLEY AREA...ALTHOUGH
SLGT SHWR CHCS MAY LINGER INTO EVE OVR THE RIDGES WITH THE SHARPER
UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE.

COLD TEMPS WL LINGER THOUGH AS COLD...TO NEUTRAL ADVCTN CONTS ON
THE REAR FLANK OF THE EXITING LOW. TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES UNDR THE
AVGS WERE MASSAGED USING SREF MEANS AND BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHRTWV RIDGING IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS RMNG PCPN CHCS TNGT...AND
INTO FRIDAY.

THEREAFTER...NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF HAVE CONSISTENTLY DEPICTED THE
APCH...AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK SHRTWV IN NW FLOW ON FRIDAY. GIVEN
DEPICTIONS OF A LTD MID LVL MSTR FIELD...CAPPED LOW LVLS AFTR MID
LVL WARMING...AND AN ABSENT PCPN SPPRTG OMEGA FIELD...HAVE DECIDED
TO ELIMINATE THE ALREADY SLGT POP FORECAST IN FAVOR A STRENGTHENING
DRY TREND.

ANOTHER SUCH DISTURBANCE IS PROJECTED FOR A SATURDAY CROSSING...BUT
THE RAIN POTENTIAL LKS EQUALLY SLIM GIVEN SIMILIAR LIMITATIONS AS
FRIDAY AS WELL AS A MORE NWD TRACK OF THE LOW CNTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS FEATURE MODERATION TWD THE SEASONAL AVGS...FORECAST
FOR WAS TWEAKED AGAIN USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS AND SREF MEANS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS THRU ERLY
NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. A WKNG TROF IS PROGGED FOR A
MID WK PASSAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E. SEASONALLY COOL WKEND TEMPS
ARE EXP TO INCR TO ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WDSPRD MVFR CONDS ARE EXPD INTO TNGT WITH LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE
UNDER AN UPR LOW ACRS THE RGN. ENOUGH DRY AIR SHOULD MOVE IN THIS
EVE TO ALLOW SOME CLRG W AT ZZV...AND OVRNGT ACRS AREAS FM PIT W.
CLRG AT ZZV MAY BE ERLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FG TO DVLP
LT TNGT.

.AVIATION /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE EXPD INTO THU MRNG BEFORE THE UPR LOW EXITS THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220959
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
559 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
SLOW WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS ~1007 MB SFC LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFF THE
SE VA/NE NC COAST...WITH STRONG UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WEST
CENTRAL VA. AREA OF SHOWERS OVERSPREADING PIEDMONT EARLY THIS
MORNING UNDER THE COLD POOL ALOFT...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS PUSHING OFF THE SE VA/NE NC COAST ASSOCIATED W/
SFC COLD FRONT AND WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY. LATEST RAP AND SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 300-500 J/KG AS OF
09Z...SHIFTING OFFSHORE PRIOR TO 12Z SO WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF
TSTMS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THAT TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE...SHOULD
BE TOO STABLE IN LOW LEVELS FOR ANY ADDITIONAL TSTMS.

LATER TODAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW SLOWLY PUSHES ESE AND SHOULD BE
CENTERED OFFSHORE BY 15-18Z. WILL CARRY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
(60-80%) POPS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE MORNING AS DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE FAVORABLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD (CHC POPS
ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR NE NC WHERE LESS MOISTURE
RESIDES). AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS OFFSHORE...DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN TO 20% OR LESS
OVER SW ZONES...WHILE FAVORABLE LIFT AND MOISTURE PERSIST FARTHER
NORTH AND EAST. WILL MAINTAIN 60-80% POPS OVER THE ERN 1/2 TO 1/3
OF THE CWA THROUGH 20Z. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK UP FROM THE
SW LATER IN THE AFTN...MAY SEE SOME PEEKS OF SUN ACRS SOUTH
CENTRAL VA BY MID- LATE AFTN BUT OVERALL IT WILL STAY BKN/OVC.
HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW MORE DEGREES GIVEN CURRENT READINGS
IN THE LOWER-MID 50S...GENLY NO BETTER THAN THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60 F FOR MOST AREAS...WARMEST AREAS WILL BE OVER THE FAR SOUTH
AND ON THE ERN SHORE WHERE LOWER 60S ARE FORECAST. OTHER FEATURE TO NOTE
WILL BE THE INCREASING NW WINDS BY AFTN AS THE SFC LOW INTENSIFIES
FAIRLY RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST. GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY LATER AFTN/EVENING (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST).

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE TONIGHT. HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ERN SHORE THIS EVENING...GENLY ONLY 20%-30%
POPS OR LOWER ELSEWHERE AFTER 00Z. DECREASING CLOUDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA/NC OVERNIGHT. REMAINING BREEZY TO
WINDY ESP NE SECTIONS. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 40S ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95 TO THE LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT IN BETWEEN SUB 1000 MB SFC
LOW OFF LONG ISLAND AND 1020 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY.
NAM SOLUTION IS OUTLIER WITH RESPECT TO IT`S LOCATION OF THE SFC
LOW WELL NORTH OF OTHER MODELS ON THU. THUS...NAM WINDS ARE
LIGHTER DUE TO A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT. FAVOR WINDS CLOSER TO A
GFS/ECMWF BLEND...WHICH YIELDS  BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACRS THE ERN SHORE...25-30 MPH ELSEWHERE. A
20%-30% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE.
STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR
SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY N/E TO PARTLY SUNNY S/W (MAYBE
MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE FAR SW). HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 F
ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE UPPER 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND
SOUTH CENTRAL VA. MOSTLY CLEAR SW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE THU NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND
MILDER TEMPS. HIGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS WELL TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY
MIDWEEK. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY (PERHAPS WARMER TUESDAY). LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LO PRES WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN
WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND AND CANADIAN MARITIME CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. UPR LVL LO
WILL SWING OVR THE AREA THEN OFF THE CST TODAY INTO THIS
EVENG...BRINGING LWR CIGS (MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR) AND -RA TO THE TAF
SITES. NW OR N WINDS WILL PICK UP LATER THIS MORNG AND REMAIN
RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY INTO TNGT MOST TAF SITES. -RA WILL LAST
THE LONGEST OVR THE LWR MD/VA ERN SHR. BREEZY/WINDY OVR ERN HALF
OF THE REGION THRU THU...AS STRONG LO GRADUALLY MOVES AWAY TO THE
NE. COULD STILL BE SHOWERS OVR LWR MD (SBY) ALSO. HI PRES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR FRI AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
LO PRES WILL FORM OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND
CANADIAN MARITIME CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO ARND 30 KT THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG.
THEN...FM THIS EVENG THRU THU AFTN...GUSTS TO ARND 35 KT WILL BE
LIKELY OVR AT LEAST THE CHES BAY ZNS AND ON THE CSTL WTRS FM
FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LGT. THUS...HAVE SCA RAMPING UP TO
A GALE WARNING IN THESE LOCATIONS FOR THIS EVENG INTO/THRU THU
AFTN. OTHRWISE...EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS OVR THE ENTIRE WTRS FM THIS
AFTN INTO EARLY FRI MORNG...AS STRNG LO PRES IS SLOW TO MOVE AWAY
TO THE NE. WITH THE FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FM THE NW...SEAS WOULD
TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-7 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS
DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220959
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
559 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
SLOW WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS ~1007 MB SFC LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFF THE
SE VA/NE NC COAST...WITH STRONG UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WEST
CENTRAL VA. AREA OF SHOWERS OVERSPREADING PIEDMONT EARLY THIS
MORNING UNDER THE COLD POOL ALOFT...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS PUSHING OFF THE SE VA/NE NC COAST ASSOCIATED W/
SFC COLD FRONT AND WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY. LATEST RAP AND SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 300-500 J/KG AS OF
09Z...SHIFTING OFFSHORE PRIOR TO 12Z SO WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF
TSTMS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THAT TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE...SHOULD
BE TOO STABLE IN LOW LEVELS FOR ANY ADDITIONAL TSTMS.

LATER TODAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW SLOWLY PUSHES ESE AND SHOULD BE
CENTERED OFFSHORE BY 15-18Z. WILL CARRY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
(60-80%) POPS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE MORNING AS DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE FAVORABLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD (CHC POPS
ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR NE NC WHERE LESS MOISTURE
RESIDES). AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS OFFSHORE...DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN TO 20% OR LESS
OVER SW ZONES...WHILE FAVORABLE LIFT AND MOISTURE PERSIST FARTHER
NORTH AND EAST. WILL MAINTAIN 60-80% POPS OVER THE ERN 1/2 TO 1/3
OF THE CWA THROUGH 20Z. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK UP FROM THE
SW LATER IN THE AFTN...MAY SEE SOME PEEKS OF SUN ACRS SOUTH
CENTRAL VA BY MID- LATE AFTN BUT OVERALL IT WILL STAY BKN/OVC.
HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW MORE DEGREES GIVEN CURRENT READINGS
IN THE LOWER-MID 50S...GENLY NO BETTER THAN THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60 F FOR MOST AREAS...WARMEST AREAS WILL BE OVER THE FAR SOUTH
AND ON THE ERN SHORE WHERE LOWER 60S ARE FORECAST. OTHER FEATURE TO NOTE
WILL BE THE INCREASING NW WINDS BY AFTN AS THE SFC LOW INTENSIFIES
FAIRLY RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST. GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY LATER AFTN/EVENING (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST).

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE TONIGHT. HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ERN SHORE THIS EVENING...GENLY ONLY 20%-30%
POPS OR LOWER ELSEWHERE AFTER 00Z. DECREASING CLOUDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA/NC OVERNIGHT. REMAINING BREEZY TO
WINDY ESP NE SECTIONS. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 40S ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95 TO THE LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT IN BETWEEN SUB 1000 MB SFC
LOW OFF LONG ISLAND AND 1020 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY.
NAM SOLUTION IS OUTLIER WITH RESPECT TO IT`S LOCATION OF THE SFC
LOW WELL NORTH OF OTHER MODELS ON THU. THUS...NAM WINDS ARE
LIGHTER DUE TO A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT. FAVOR WINDS CLOSER TO A
GFS/ECMWF BLEND...WHICH YIELDS  BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACRS THE ERN SHORE...25-30 MPH ELSEWHERE. A
20%-30% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE.
STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR
SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY N/E TO PARTLY SUNNY S/W (MAYBE
MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE FAR SW). HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 F
ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE UPPER 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND
SOUTH CENTRAL VA. MOSTLY CLEAR SW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE THU NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND
MILDER TEMPS. HIGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS WELL TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY
MIDWEEK. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY (PERHAPS WARMER TUESDAY). LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LO PRES WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN
WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND AND CANADIAN MARITIME CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. UPR LVL LO
WILL SWING OVR THE AREA THEN OFF THE CST TODAY INTO THIS
EVENG...BRINGING LWR CIGS (MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR) AND -RA TO THE TAF
SITES. NW OR N WINDS WILL PICK UP LATER THIS MORNG AND REMAIN
RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY INTO TNGT MOST TAF SITES. -RA WILL LAST
THE LONGEST OVR THE LWR MD/VA ERN SHR. BREEZY/WINDY OVR ERN HALF
OF THE REGION THRU THU...AS STRONG LO GRADUALLY MOVES AWAY TO THE
NE. COULD STILL BE SHOWERS OVR LWR MD (SBY) ALSO. HI PRES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR FRI AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
LO PRES WILL FORM OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND
CANADIAN MARITIME CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO ARND 30 KT THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG.
THEN...FM THIS EVENG THRU THU AFTN...GUSTS TO ARND 35 KT WILL BE
LIKELY OVR AT LEAST THE CHES BAY ZNS AND ON THE CSTL WTRS FM
FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LGT. THUS...HAVE SCA RAMPING UP TO
A GALE WARNING IN THESE LOCATIONS FOR THIS EVENG INTO/THRU THU
AFTN. OTHRWISE...EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS OVR THE ENTIRE WTRS FM THIS
AFTN INTO EARLY FRI MORNG...AS STRNG LO PRES IS SLOW TO MOVE AWAY
TO THE NE. WITH THE FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FM THE NW...SEAS WOULD
TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-7 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS
DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220903
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
503 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
SLOW WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS ~1008 MB SFC LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFF THE SE
VA/NE NC COAST...WITH STRONG UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WEST CENTRAL
VA. AREA OF SHOWERS OVERSPREADING PIEDMONT EARLY THIS MORNING UNDER
THE COLD POOL ALOFT...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS PUSHING OFF THE SE VA/NE NC COAST ASSOCIATED W/ SFC COLD FRONT
AND WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY. LATEST RAP AND SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE
ON THE ORDER OF 300-500 J/KG AS OF 07Z...SHIFTING OFFSHORE PRIOR TO
12Z SO WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF TSTMS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THAT
TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE TOO STABLE IN LOW LEVELS FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL TSTMS.

LATER TODAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW SLOWLY PUSHES ESE AND SHOULD BE
CENTERED OFFSHORE BY 15-18Z. WILL CARRY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
(60-80%) POPS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE MORNING AS DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE FAVORABLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD (CHC POPS
ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR NE NC WHERE LESS MOISTURE
RESIDES). AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS OFFSHORE...DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND SHOULD END MUCH CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIP THIS AFTN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR NE NC...WHILE
FAVORABLE LIFT AND MOISTURE PERSIST OVER NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY TO CAT POPS ON THE ERN SHORE THROUGH THE
AFTN...TAPERED TO 20% OR LOWER FROM SW SIDE OF METRO RICHMOND ON
SW. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK UP HOWEVER...MAY SEE SOME PEEKS
OF SUN ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL VA BY MID-LATE AFTN BUT OVERALL IT WILL
STAY BKN/OVC. FAVOR COOLER END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...GENLY NO
BETTER THAN THE LOWER 60S OVER MOST AREAS..RANGING FROM LWR TO MID
60S ACRS THE FAR SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 F OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES FROM CAROLINE COUNTY ON WEST. OTHER FEATURE TO
NOTE WILL BE THE INCREASING NW WINDS BY AFTN AS THE SFC LOW
INTENSIFIES FAIRLY RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST. GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY LATER AFTN/EVENING (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST).

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE TONIGHT. HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ERN SHORE THIS EVENING...GENLY ONLY 20%
POPS OR LOWER ELSEWHERE AFTER 00Z. DECREASING CLOUDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA/NC OVERNIGHT. REMAINING BREEZY TO
WINDY ESP NE SECTIONS. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 40S ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95 TO THE LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT IN BETWEEN SUB 1000 MB SFC
LOW OFF LONG ISLAND AND 1020 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY.
EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACRS THE
ERN SHORE...25-30 MPH ELSEWHERE. A 20% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE. STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY
N/E TO PARTLY SUNNY S/W (MAYBE MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE FAR SW).
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 F ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE
MID-UPPER 60S SW.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND
MILDER TEMPS. HIGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS WELL TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY
MIDWEEK. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY (PERHAPS WARMER TUESDAY). LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LO PRES WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN
WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND AND CANADIAN MARITIME CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. UPR LVL LO
WILL SWING OVR THE AREA THEN OFF THE CST TODAY INTO THIS
EVENG...BRINGING LWR CIGS (MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR) AND -RA TO THE TAF
SITES. NW OR N WINDS WILL PICK UP LATER THIS MORNG AND REMAIN
RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY INTO TNGT MOST TAF SITES. -RA WILL LAST
THE LONGEST OVR THE LWR MD/VA ERN SHR. BREEZY/WINDY OVR ERN HALF
OF THE REGION THRU THU...AS STRONG LO GRADUALLY MOVES AWAY TO THE
NE. COULD STILL BE SHOWERS OVR LWR MD (SBY) ALSO. HI PRES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR FRI AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
LO PRES WILL FORM OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND
CANADIAN MARITIME CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO ARND 30 KT THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG.
THEN...FM THIS EVENG THRU THU AFTN...GUSTS TO ARND 35 KT WILL BE
LIKELY OVR AT LEAST THE CHES BAY ZNS AND ON THE CSTL WTRS FM
FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LGT. THUS...HAVE SCA RAMPING UP TO
A GALE WARNING IN THESE LOCATIONS FOR THIS EVENG INTO/THRU THU
AFTN. OTHRWISE...EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS OVR THE ENTIRE WTRS FM THIS
AFTN INTO EARLY FRI MORNG...AS STRNG LO PRES IS SLOW TO MOVE AWAY
TO THE NE. WITH THE FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FM THE NW...SEAS WOULD
TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-7 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS
DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG







000
FXUS61 KPHI 220827
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
427 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM SHOULD BE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THEN MOVE INTO NOVA
SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TOWARD OUR
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE UPPER LOW MAKES A MOVE TO THE EAST THROUGH TODAY AND SHOULD MOVE
OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN
OFFSHORE AS IT STARTS TO MAKE ITS PUSH TO THE NORTH. THE SURFACE
LOWS NORTHWARD PUSH IS IMPEDED BY THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NORTHEASTERN CANADA.

THIS WILL CAUSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO REMAIN PRETTY TIGHT ACROSS
OUR AREA AND IN RETURN, WE WILL HAVE A BLUSTERY KIND OF DAY. CLOUDY
SKIES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CERTAINLY MAKE IT FEEL LIKE FALL OUT
THERE. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE ALL THAT MUCH AND MOST AREAS WILL
BE LUCKY IF THEY CAN MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER 60S. WE WILL LIKELY SEE
A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S WITH SOME LOWER
60S MORE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

IN ADDITION, THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL TAP INTO A BIT OF
MOISTURE AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS OFF AND ON TODAY. THERE
IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY AROUND TO SPARK OFF SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS MORNING. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER WILL
EXIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS AND CLOSER TO THE COAST AS A VORT
MAX LIFTS NORTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW TO MAKE A MOVE TO
THE NORTH.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. MAINLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH HEAVIER RAIN POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE
UPPER LOW.

SOME COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BUT WE WILL STILL
HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. IT WILL FEEL COLDER AS THE WINDS REMAIN
UP THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A POTENT CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS
WILL TAKE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WITH IT AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE NOVA
SCOTIA AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AS ENERGY DRIVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, A BUILDING RIDGE OCCURS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL
PROBABLY FORCE ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DOWN INTO THE NORTHEAST
OVER THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER AS IT CLOSES OFF IT LOOKS TO BE TO OUR
NORTHEAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THEN ARRIVES IN THE
EAST MONDAY, HOWEVER WITH THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN THE NEXT COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRIVING EASTWARD LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WE
USED A MODEL BLEND FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN BLENDED THE
00Z WPC GUIDANCE IN WITH CONTINUITY. SOME TWEAKS WERE THEN MADE
AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF A POTENT CLOSED LOW IS
FORECAST TO BE JUST TO OUR EAST THURSDAY, BUT THEN SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY, THIS WILL TAKE A STRENGTHENING SURFACE
LOW WITH IT. WE WILL MAINTAIN MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE CLOSED
LOW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREAS THURSDAY. THE MAIN FORCING THOUGH LOOKS TO REMAIN TO
OUR NORTH. THEREFORE, SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHEST
/LIKELY/ POPS ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE MORNING WITH A DECREASE
SOUTHWARD AND DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS DRYING SHOULD WORK IN
DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW AND SURFACE LOW
SHIFT FARTHER TO OUR NORTHEAST. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINED
WITH A STRONGER WIND FIELD AND DEEPER MIXING WILL RESULT IN BREEZY
TO WINDY CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS, WITH SOME DECREASE BOTH NIGHTS. A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT,
HOWEVER A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN SOME CLOUDS
FOR A TIME.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH
SATURDAY, HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER A LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE SHOULD
RESULT IN A GENERALLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND, WHICH MEANS A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A
RESULT, A BREEZY DAY MAY OCCUR AS MIXING DEEPENS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
STARTS TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES TOWARD THE EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WARMING
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS TIME FRAME, WITH
JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW 00Z WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE TERMINALS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED MAINLY ALONG THE COAST, AFFECTING KACY
EARLY THIS MORNING, AND WILL START TO PUSH INLAND OVER THE COMING
HOURS. HOW MUCH THEY HOLD TOGETHER AND HOW FAR INLAND THEY GET WILL
BE THE QUESTION. PRESENTLY, IT LOOKS LIKE THE STORMS WILL MAKE IT AS
FAR INLAND AS KMIV. SHOWERS WILL PUSH INLAND AS WELL AND LOOK TO
IMPACT KILG, KPHL, KPNE, AND KTTN THIS MORNING. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES AND PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY AFFECT KMIV BETWEEN 8Z-10Z. SHOULD ANY HOLD TOGETHER AND
APPROACH THE I-95 CORRIDOR, IT WOULD BE CLOSER TO 10Z-12Z.

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY AND A BIT
MORE NORTH TO NORTHWEST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPEEDS
AROUND 5-10 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS BY THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...TIMES OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME SHOWERS, ENDING IN THE
EVENING AND BECOME VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
30 KNOTS, DIMINISHING SOME AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS, DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE OCEAN HAS BEEN CONVERTED OVER TO A
GALE WARNING. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE UPPER BAY REMAINS
UNCHANGED, AS DOES THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED GALE WARNING.

TODAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS TODAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH
NORTHEAST EARLY BEFORE BECOMING MORE NORTH NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL BE
20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS ON THE OCEAN FRONT AND LOWER
DELAWARE BAY. THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY WILL SEE SIMILAR WINDS WITH
GUSTS IN THE LOWER 30 KNOT RANGE. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO 7 FEET
ON THE OCEAN FRONT.

TONIGHT...THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES ON THE OCEAN AND LOWER BAY
TONIGHT. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT AND THEN START TO DIMINISH A
BIT TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING AS THE GRADIENT STARTS TO LIGHTEN UP.
SEAS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN OCEAN ZONES
AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY FOR THE MORNING AS GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
HANG ON SOME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR UPPER DELAWARE
BAY, AND ONE WILL BE NEEDED ELSEWHERE FOLLOWING THE GALE WARNING.

FRIDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE ANTICIPATED
ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN ZONES AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING
CONTINUES. THIS SHOULD DECREASE AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE FLOW SHOULD INCREASE SOME SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THIS COULD RESULT IN GUSTS TO ABOUT
25 KNOTS FOR A TIME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>452.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ431-453>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA





000
FXUS61 KLWX 220803 CCA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
401 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FRIDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

AS OF 07Z...UPR LOW CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN MARYLAND SHORE OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY PER WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE LOWER LEVEL
LOW IS SHIFTED A BIT FARTHER EAST PER REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY. THE
SFC LOW IS AT MOST 1008MB AND OFF THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC COAST PER
OBS/BUOYS. MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE UPR LOW HAS ALLOW SOME
THUNDER OVER THE DELMARVA WITH A FEW STRIKES IN HARFORD COUNTY. THIS
LOW COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNRISE THEN
MERELY DRIFT EAST THROUGH TODAY. THUNDER THREAT WILL END BY SUNRISE
AS THE UPR LOW MOVES EAST.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE
HEAVIEST WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THREE INCHES STORM
TOTAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS BALTIMORE/HARFORD COUNTIES WHERE ONE TO TWO
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN. COULD BE A FLOOD THREAT THERE AND THIS WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. OTHERWISE...RAIN WILL RETRACT EAST
FROM THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS (THOUGH UPSLOPE PERSISTS) THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE.

MAX TEMPS LIMITED BY CLOUDS AND PRECIP...AROUND 60F FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. RAISED TEMPS TO THE LOW 60S FOR CHO AND SHD BASED ON EXPECTED
SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPING NWLY FLOW WITHOUT COLD AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THERE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH WHICH WILL HELP KEEP THE STRONG
WIND FIELD ABOVE THE SFC. THEREFORE...THE ONLY EXPECTED WIND
ADVISORY THREAT FOR TONIGHT IS THOUGHT TO BE ON RIDGETOPS. MIN
TEMPS MID TO UPR 40S WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY...GUSTY. THINK THE 00Z GFS IS TOO HIGH...BUT WIND GUSTS OF
30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC. MAX TEMPS UPR 50S TO LOW 60S IN THE WELL MIXED
ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TIME OF PARTIAL ECLIPSE FOR DC THU - 5:52 PM TO 6:17 PM. BALT IS
5:51 TO 6:15. APPROX 1/4 OF SUN WL BE COVERED...SWRN PART OF THE SKY.
QUSTN WL BE WHETHER IT WL BE VSBL DUE TO CLDS...WHICH SHOULD BE
DIMINISHING DURG THIS TIME PD. BEST CHCS FOR VIEWING WL MOST LKLY
BE IN THE WRN PART OF THE CWA AND CENTRAL SHEN VLLY.

CUTOFF LOW LOOKS TO BE NEAR CAPE COD FRI MRNG. HIGH PRES BLDG INTO
MID ALTC SHOULD PROVIDE GOOD WX FOR THE END OF THE WORKWK AND THEN A
VERY PLSNT WKND. HIGHS IN THE MU60S...LOWS GNRLY IN THE 40S XCPT
L50S IN THE CITIES. THIS IS PRETTY CLOSE TO CLIMO NORMS FOR THE
LATTER PART OF OCT.

A DRY CD FNT MAY COME THRU THE AREA SUN...THEN IT`S LOOKING LK A
BIG RDG OF HIGH PRES MOVES OVR THE E CST FOR THE 1ST PART OF NEXT
WK. HIGHS A70 LOWS IN THE 40S XCPT L50S IN THE CITY AND ALONG THE BAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

MVFR CONDS IN PERIODIC RAIN TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST FROM
THE AREA (CURRENTLY RIGHT OVER THE DC METROS). NW WINDS INCREASE
WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT BY THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...GUSTS GENERALLY 30 TO 35 KT.

VFR CONDS XPCTD THRU THE XTND PD. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO ABATE THU NGT.

&&

.MARINE...

PERIODIC RAIN TODAY WITH ANY THUNDER ENDING BY MID MORNING. SCA
THROUGH TODAY AS NWLY FLOW INCREASES. GALES OVER AT LEAST THE SRN MD
WATERS TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES. MAY NEED GALES FOR ALL
WATERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SCA CONDS LKLY TO CONT THU NGT AND FRI. IT LOOKS LK WKND BOATING
CONDS SHOULD BE GOOD. WATER TEMPS IN THE M60S.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...BAJ/WOODY!









000
FXUS61 KLWX 220800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FRIDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

AS OF 07Z...UPR LOW CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN MARYLAND SHORE OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY PER WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE LOWER LEVEL
LOW IS SHIFTED A BIT FARTHER EAST PER REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY. THE
SFC LOW IS AT MOST 1008MB AND OFF THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC COAST PER
OBS/BUOYS. MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE UPR LOW HAS ALLOW SOME
THUNDER OVER THE DELMARVA WITH A FEW STRIKES IN HARFORD COUNTY. THIS
LOW COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNRISE THEN
MERELY DRIFT EAST THROUGH TODAY. THUNDER THREAT WILL END BY SUNRISE
AS THE UPR LOW MOVES EAST.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE
HEAVIEST WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THREE INCHES STORM
TOTAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS BALTIMORE/HARFORD COUNTIES WHERE ONE TO TWO
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN. COULD BE A FLOOD THREAT THERE AND THIS WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. OTHERWISE...RAIN WILL RETRACT EAST
FROM THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS (THOUGH UPSLOPE PERSISTS) THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE.

MAX TEMPS LIMITED BY CLOUDS AND PRECIP...AROUND 60F FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. RAISED TEMPS TO THE LOW 60S FOR CHO AND SHD BASED ON EXPECTED
SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPING NWLY FLOW WITHOUT COLD AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THERE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH WHICH WILL HELP KEEP THE STRONG
WIND FIELD ABOVE THE SFC. THEREFORE...THE ONLY EXPECTED WIND
ADVISORY THREAT FOR TONIGHT IS THOUGHT TO BE ON RIDGETOPS. MIN
TEMPS MID TO UPR 40S WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY...GUSTY. THINK THE 00Z GFS IS TOO HIGH...BUT WIND GUSTS OF
30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC. MAX TEMPS UPR 50S TO LOW 60S IN THE WELL MIXED
ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TIME OF PARTIAL ECLIPSE FOR DC THU - 5:52 PM TO 6:17 PM. BALT IS
5:51 TO 6:15. APPROX 1/4 OF SUN WL BE COVERED...SWRN PART OF THE SKY.
QUSTN WL BE WHETHER IT WL BE VSBL DUE TO CLDS...WHICH SHOULD BE
DIMINISHING DURG THIS TIME PD. BEST CHCS FOR VIEWING WL MOST LKLY
BE IN THE WRN PART OF THE CWA AND CENTRAL SHEN VLLY.

CUTOFF LOW LOOKS TO BE NEAR CAPE COD FRI MRNG. HIGH PRES BLDG INTO
MID ALTC SHOULD PROVIDE GOOD WX FOR THE END OF THE WORKWK AND THEN A
VERY PLSNT WKND. HIGHS IN THE MU60S...LOWS GNRLY IN THE 40S XCPT
L50S IN THE CITIES. THIS IS PRETTY CLOSE TO CLIMO NORMS FOR THE
LATTER PART OF OCT.

A DRY CD FNT MAY COME THRU THE AREA SUN...THEN IT`S LOOKING LK A
BIG RDG OF HIGH PRES MOVES OVR THE E CST FOR THE 1ST PART OF NEXT
WK. HIGHS A70 LOWS IN THE 40S XCPT L50S IN THE CITY AND ALONG THE BAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

VFR CONDS XPCTD THRU THE XTND PD. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO ABATE THU NGT.

&&

.MARINE...

SCA CONDS LKLY TO CONT THU NGT AND FRI. IT LOOKS LK WKND BOATING
CONDS SHOULD BE GOOD. WATER TEMPS IN THE M60S.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...BAJ/WOODY!







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220750
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
350 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
SLOW WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS ~1008 MB SFC LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFF THE SE
VA/NE NC COAST...WITH STRONG UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WEST CENTRAL
VA. AREA OF SHOWERS OVERSPREADING PIEDMONT EARLY THIS MORNING UNDER
THE COLD POOL ALOFT...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS PUSHING OFF THE SE VA/NE NC COAST ASSOCIATED W/ SFC COLD FRONT
AND WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY. LATEST RAP AND SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE
ON THE ORDER OF 300-500 J/KG AS OF 07Z...SHIFTING OFFSHORE PRIOR TO
12Z SO WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF TSTMS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THAT
TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE TOO STABLE IN LOW LEVELS FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL TSTMS.

LATER TODAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW SLOWLY PUSHES ESE AND SHOULD BE
CENTERED OFFSHORE BY 15-18Z. WILL CARRY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
(60-80%) POPS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE MORNING AS DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE FAVORABLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD (CHC POPS
ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR NE NC WHERE LESS MOISTURE
RESIDES). AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS OFFSHORE...DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND SHOULD END MUCH CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIP THIS AFTN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR NE NC...WHILE
FAVORABLE LIFT AND MOISTURE PERSIST OVER NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY TO CAT POPS ON THE ERN SHORE THROUGH THE
AFTN...TAPERED TO 20% OR LOWER FROM SW SIDE OF METRO RICHMOND ON
SW. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK UP HOWEVER...MAY SEE SOME PEEKS
OF SUN ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL VA BY MID-LATE AFTN BUT OVERALL IT WILL
STAY BKN/OVC. FAVOR COOLER END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...GENLY NO
BETTER THAN THE LOWER 60S OVER MOST AREAS..RANGING FROM LWR TO MID
60S ACRS THE FAR SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 F OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES FROM CAROLINE COUNTY ON WEST. OTHER FEATURE TO
NOTE WILL BE THE INCREASING NW WINDS BY AFTN AS THE SFC LOW
INTENSIFIES FAIRLY RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST. GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY LATER AFTN/EVENING (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST).

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE TONIGHT. HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ERN SHORE THIS EVENING...GENLY ONLY 20%
POPS OR LOWER ELSEWHERE AFTER 00Z. DECREASING CLOUDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA/NC OVERNIGHT. REMAINING BREEZY TO
WINDY ESP NE SECTIONS. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 40S ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95 TO THE LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT IN BETWEEN SUB 1000 MB SFC
LOW OFF LONG ISLAND AND 1020 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY.
EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACRS THE
ERN SHORE...25-30 MPH ELSEWHERE. A 20% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE. STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY
N/E TO PARTLY SUNNY S/W (MAYBE MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE FAR SW).
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 F ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE
MID-UPPER 60S SW.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND
MILDER TEMPS. HIGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS WELL TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY
MIDWEEK. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY (PERHAPS WARMER TUESDAY). LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LO PRES WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN
WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND AND CANADIAN MARITIMES CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. UPR LVL LO
WILL SWING OVR THE AREA THEN OFF THE CST TODAY INTO THIS
EVENG...BRINGING LWR CIGS (MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR) AND -RA TO THE TAF
SITES. NW OR N WINDS WILL PICK UP LATER THIS MORNG AND REMAIN
RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY INTO TNGT MOST TAF SITES. -RA WILL LAST
THE LONGEST OVR THE LWR MD/VA ERN SHR. BREEZY/WINDY OVR ERN HALF
OF THE REGION THRU THU...AS STRONG LO GRADUALLY MOVES AWAY TO THE
NE. COULD STILL BE SHOWERS OVR LWR MD (SBY) ALSO. HI PRES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR FRI AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
AS A COLD FRONT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE
AREA...WINDS HAVE INCREASED TEMPORARILY. MWS ISSUED FOR BRIEF
GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS IN THE CHESAPEAKE AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
VIRGINIA RIVERS. THESE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BEFORE INCREASING ONCE
AGAIN DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...
WITH LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFYING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS
     BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND
CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST WIND IS
GENERALLY 20-25KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT FOR MOST OF THE
MARINE AREA. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR LOW-END GALE CONDITIONS LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING PRIMARILY SUPPORTED BY
THE 21/12Z NAM. AT THIS TIME THE CURRENT SCA WAS MAINTAINED GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR ONLY MARGINAL GALE CONDITIONS...WITH AN ONSET
GENERALLY AT OR BEYOND 24HR FROM 4PM TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OCEAN. WITH THE
FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED
AT 5-7 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO
10-15KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>638-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AJZ/LSA







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220725
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
325 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS UPPER LOW PRESSURE
EXITS EASTWARD. A STRENGTHENING HIGH WILL DRY AND WARM THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY REGION INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MATURATION OF LOW PRES IS STILL MDL PROGGED OVR THE COAST BY DAYS
END AND OVRALL SBSDNC WL GRADUALLY SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
OVR MOST OF THE UPR OH VALLEY AREA...ALTHOUGH SLGT SHWR CHCS MAY
LINGER INTO EVE OVR THE RIDGES WITH THE SHARPER UPSLOPE
ASSISTANCE.

COLD TEMPS WL LINGER THOUGH AS COLD...TO NEUTRAL ADVCTN CONTS ON
THE REAR FLANK OF THE EXITING LOW. TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES UNDR THE
AVGS WERE MASSAGED USING SREF MEANS AND BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHRTWV RIDGING IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS RMNG PCPN CHCS TNGT...AND
INTO FRIDAY.

THEREAFTER...NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF HAVE CONSISTENTLY DEPICTED THE
APCH...AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK SHRTWV IN NW FLOW ON FRIDAY. GIVEN
DEPICTIONS OF A LTD MID LVL MSTR FIELD...CAPPED LOW LVLS AFTR MID
LVL WARMING...AND AN ABSENT PCPN SPPRTG OMEGA FIELD...HAVE DECIDED
TO ELIMINATE THE ALREADY SLGT POP FORECAST IN FAVOR A STRENGTHENING
DRY TREND.

ANOTHER SUCH DISTURBANCE IS PROJECTED FOR A SATURDAY CROSSING...BUT
THE RAIN POTENTIAL LKS EQUALLY SLIM GIVEN SIMILIAR LIMITATIONS AS
FRIDAY AS WELL AS A MORE NWD TRACK OF THE LOW CNTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS FEATURE MODERATION TWD THE SEASONAL AVGS...FORECAST
FOR WAS TWEAKED AGAIN USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS AND SREF MEANS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS THRU ERLY
NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. A WKNG TROF IS PROGGED FOR A
MID WK PASSAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E. SEASONALLY COOL WKEND TEMPS
ARE EXP TO INCR TO ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WDSPRD IFR CONDS AND SCT SHWRS ARE EXPD THRU ERLY THIS MRNG WITH
LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE UNDER AN UPR LOW ACRS THE RGN. WHILE CONDS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR LTR IN THE MRNG...THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPR
LOW WL KEEP MVFR CONDS INTO TNGT.

.AVIATION /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE EXPD INTO THU MRNG BEFORE THE UPR LOW EXITS THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities