[top]
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 251954
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
354 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRY AND
COOL CONDITIONS. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN MEMORIAL DAY AND LAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH BECOMES SITUATED OFF THE EAST
COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS SFC LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFF THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN MAINE...AS THE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW SPINS OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND/EASTERN NY STATE. MCS SITUATED OVER THE MID
MS VALLEY HAS WEAKENED THIS AFTN AS IT ENCOUNTERED DRIER AIR OVER
THE OH/TN VALLEY. STILL SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THIS AFTN...ALONG WITH BREEZY NW WINDS. QUITE COOL FOR MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND WITH AFTN OBS HOLDING IN THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MAINLY CLEAR THIS EVENING AS HIGH CLOUDS
ARE SHUNTED SOUTH IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT. DIMINISHING WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO MINS TONIGHT ABOUT 15 DEGREES COLDER THAN
NORMAL/MAINLY 40-45 WELL INLAND AND 45 TO 50 NEAR THE COAST. THIS
WILL BE NEAR BUT JUST ABOVE RECORD LOWS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW).
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE SLOW TO EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A CUTOFF
LOW GRADUALLY PUSHING NE AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SUN AFTN.
AT THE SFC...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX QUITE A BIT BY SUN AFTN AS
THE COASTAL LOW MOVES OFF TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WX ON
SUNDAY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AND SKIES WILL GENLY BE SUNNY. AFTER
A VERY COOL START...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM RAPIDLY WITH HIGHS 70-75
FOR MOST OF THE REGION (COOLEST NEAR THE COAST AND WARMEST
ALONG/WEST OF I-95). NOTE...STAYED ON COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE AS MAV
NUMBERS/MOS GUIDANCE HAVE GENLY BEEN TOO WARM PAST FEW DAYS.
STILL CHILLY SUN NIGHT UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS BUT
WITH AIRMASS MODIFYING...EXPECT MINS TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
SAT NIGHT...WENT CLOSE TO MAV NUMBERS WITH LOWS PRIMARILY FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 40S. STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF STATES WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD LATE SUN AND MON WHILE AT THE SAME
TIME...UPR LVL RIDGE WILL FINALLY PROGRESS EWD. AS A RESULT...A MORE
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE ON MON. AS THE RIDGE
PROGRESSES EWD...A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS WILL INTERACT WITH THE
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDWEST INTO
THE OH VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON. STILL LOOKS TOO DRY/STABLE E OF THE
MTNS SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY W/ JUST SOME SCATTERED AFTN CUMULUS
ANTICIPATED. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 ALONG AND WEST
OF I-95 TO THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO
THE WEST MAY FORM INTO A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. MCS WILL ROUND
THE RIDGE...BUT WILL LIKELY DIE OUT BEFORE REACHING THE MID ATLC.
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD MON NGT...MUCH MILDER WITH LOWS
FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. BOUNDARY SETS UP SOMEWHERE ACRS
THE AREA ON TUE...NAM DEPICTS A LOT MORE MOISTURE THAN THE
GFS/ECMWF...BUT BOTH SUGGEST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO INCLUDE AT LEAST A
20 TO 30% FOR FOR SHRA AND AFTN TSRA ACRS THE CWA. HIGHS MAINLY
80-85 UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE EAST AND RESULTANT ABOVE NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL HEADLINE THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG OVER THE WRN CONUS
WEDS...FURTHER AMPLIFYING THE CNTRL/ERN CONUS RIDGE AS IT PROGRESSES
EWD. RIDGE AXIS WILL LOCATE FROM THE SE STATES NWWD INTO THE NRN
PLAINS...PROGRESSING EWD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THURS AFTERNOON. STRONG UPPER BERMUDA HIGH (+1 STD DEV)
PROGGED TO CENTER JUST OFF THE NC COAST THURS AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN POOR/FAIR AGREEMENT WITH UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN. MAIN ERROR REGION LOOKS TO BE OVER CNTRL QUEBEC
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING SE CANADA (LARGE MODEL SPREAD
IN ENSEMBLE RUNS). MODELS AGREE ON COMPRESSING THE RIDGE OVER THE NE
STATES...BUT 25/00Z ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE RIDGE AXIS. THE
SUBSEQUENT SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT WILL BE THE LOCATION OF THE
BOUNDARY OVER THE NE STATES. REGARDLESS OF THE DIFFERENCES...FRONT
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WED-FRI.
THUS...EXPECT WARM/MOIST SUMMER-LIKE AIRMASS TO ANCHOR OVER THE
REGION. +1 STD DEV H5 AND H85 HEIGHTS (AS WELL AS +1 STD DEV H85
TEMPS) WILL TRANSLATE TO TEMPS +1 STD DEV (GENERALLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S) WED-SAT. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE INTO THE MID
60S...AS PRECIP WATERS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES WED
AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING THURS. COMBINATION OF WARM/HUMID AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS MAY BE ENOUGH TO INTERACT WITH WEAK LEE SIDE
TROUGHING FOR DIURNALLY DRIVER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM SO WILL LIMIT POPS BELOW
SLIGHT CHANCE. DECREASING MOISTURE THUR-SAT WILL INHIBIT ANY CHANCES
FOR PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IMPRESSIVE UPR TROF FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
SLOWLY BE LIFTING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. THIS WILL PUSH THE
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. MAIN ISSUE IN THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON
IS WIND SPEED AND GUSTS. LOOKING AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS WILL GENERALLY HAVE WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS FROM THE NW
WITH GUSTS FROM 20 TO 25 KTS. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE NEAR
SBY. AFTER SUNSET THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AND BE AROUND 10
KTS ON SUNDAY. THE DIRECTION WILL BE NORTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY.
CONTINUED MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS
COMING OFF THE MOUNTAINS INTO RIC THIS AFTERNOON MAY ALSO CROSS
PHF. STILL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS ON MEMORIAL DAY THEN WITH A
WARM FRONT APPROACHING FOR TUESDAY COULD DEVELOP SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL MVFR IN THE STORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
DEEPENING STORM JUST EAST OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE LIFTING
NEWD THIS WEEKEND. WINDS AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN THE STG
SCA RANGE TODAY...WITH GUSTS ON THE BAY/NRN COASTAL WATERS AROUND 30
KTS THROUGH AT LEAST THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS LOW MOVES AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SUNDAY WILL BE BETTER THAN TODAY FROM A
BOATING PERSPECTIVE...WITH WINDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 15 KT ON THE
BAY/RIVERS/SOUND...AND 20 KT ON THE OCEAN. HOWEVER...NW DIRECTION
SHOULD STILL KEEP CONDITIONS ON THE CHOPPHY SIDE...MAKING CONDITIONS
LESS THAN OPTIMAL. MONDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WITH WINDS MAINLY 10KT OR LESS.
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE SE COAST FROM TUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...ALLOWING FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF S/SW WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE MARINE AREA. DURING MOST OF THIS TIME FRAME...WINDS
ON THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...AND 10 TO
20 KT ON THE OCEAN.
&&
.CLIMATE...
SET A RECORD LOW AT ELIZABETH CITY NC THIS MORNING AT 43 F (OLD
RECORD HAD BEEN 47). MAY COME CLOSE TO CHALLENGING A FEW RECORD
LOWS AGAIN SUNDAY...RECORD LOWS FOR MAY 26TH ARE LISTED BELOW:
.RICHMOND............42 (1925)
.NORFOLK.............47 (1967)
.SALISBURY MD........39 (1917)
.ELIZABETH CITY NC...44 (1967)
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ635>638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
650-652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
654-656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...JAB
MARINE...SAM
CLIMATE...AKQ
[top]
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251933
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
333 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COLD WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MID-WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION AS THE UPPER
LOW ROTATES OVER NEW ENGLAND. TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT FLOW
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS TO CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH FOCUSED A BIT FURTHER EAST THAN
YESTERDAY. BEYOND SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CU...SOME HIGH CIRRUS
FROM A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OFF TO THE WEST MAY MAKE IT INTO THE
WESTERN ZONES. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE FORECAST AREAS SHOULD SEE A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE...COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS ONCE
AGAIN TODAY.
WITH BUILDING HIGH CONTINUING ITS PROGRESSION EASTWARD...EXPECT
ANOTHER CALM...CLEAR NIGHT TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMING SLIGHTLY...FOCUS OF WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE HAS
SHIFTED A BIT FARTHER NORTH AND EAST. DID HOWEVER EXPAND FREEZE
AND FROST PRODUCTS PER COORDINATION WITH ADJACENT OFFICES AND
RELATIVELY LOW DEWPOINTS REMAINING OVER THE REGION. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS REMAINS
LOW...ISOLATED POCKETS OF BELOW-FREEZING TEMPERATURES COULD
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS.
SUNDAY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE A QUIET WEATHER DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
MODERATING A FEW DEGREES CLOSER TO NORMAL. WIND GUSTS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS HIGH SETTLES OVERHEAD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND OPENS AND EXITS NEWD...FCST AREA
WILL RMN UNDER INFLUENCE OF RDG. LGT WINDS AND CLR SKIES XPCD SUN
NGT AND MON FOR MUCH OF RGN. AS A RESULT...TEMPS ONCE AGAIN XPCD
TO DROP LATE SUN NGT. FRZ WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR NRN ZONES...WHERE
TEMPS FCSTD TO BE VERY NR OR BLW FRZG. WITH UPR RDG RMNG TO W OF
FCST AREA THRU MON NGT...VERY LOW POPS WERE CONTD THRU THE PD.
WMFNT APRCHS ON TUE AS UPR RDG SHIFTS EWD. MSTR WILL BE SLOW TO
RETURN TO THE AREA...SO ONLY LOW POPS WERE MAINTAINED THRU TUE
NGT. ANY PCPN WILL BE TIED TO TIMING OF LOW-AMPLITUDE SHRTWV TROFS
THAT ARE POORLY RESOLVED ATTM...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT PSBLTY OF A
TSTM GIVEN XPCD WARM AIR ADVCTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPR RDG WILL AMPLIFY OVER ERN CONUS RMNDR OF THE WK AS SWLY LOW-
LVL FLOW INCRS. THIS FLOW WILL PROVIDE AMPLE MSTR AND HEAT TO THE
RGN. TEMPS IN MID-UPR 80S XPCD TO RETURN BY MID-WK.
ALTHOUGH LOW-LVL MSTR WILL BE PRESENT...LACK OF A BNDRY AND
UNCERTAIN SPHERE OF INFLUENCE OF STG UPR RDG WILL LMT PCPN CVRG.
GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN AMPLITUDE AND NWD POSITION OF UPR RDG...
POPS CANNOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY. WITH MODEST INSTBY PRESENT...
SLGT CHC TSTMS WILL BE CARRIED DAILY THRU THE EXTENDED PDS UNTIL
IT IS CLEAR WHETHER CAPPING/SUBSIDENCE OR HEATING WILL WIN OUT.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD. NORTHWEST WIND AT 10-15 WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. WHILE NONE OF THE MODELS
SUGGEST IT...SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG COULD DEVELOP AS WAS THE CASE
THIS MORNING. FOR NOW...LEFT OUT THIS MENTION IN THE TAFS AS IT MAY
HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON TERMINALS.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE POSSIBLE
RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS RETURN TUESDAY WITH AN APPROACHING WARM
FRONT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
PAZ007>009-015-016.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ007>009-015-
016.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ013-014-
020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ001>004-012-
021>023-041.
&&
$$
34/KRAMAR
[top]
000
FXUS61 KPHI 251922
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
322 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON
WILL LIFT GRADUALLY TO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED OVER UPPER ONTARIO AND VICINITY WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST. A SECTION OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO PASS OVER OUR
REGION AROUND MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST. A WARM
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD
UP INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH FOR THURSDAY, FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE MAIN CHANGE IN THIS TIME FRAME WAS TO SPEED UP THE DEPARTURE
OF THE REMAINING PRECIPITATION BY SEVERAL HOURS. 12Z NAM DEPICTED
THIS TREND WELL.
THE LOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOLER AND
DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCH EASTWARD FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY. SKIES WILL BE CLEARING OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
THIS EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER NORTHERN NJ WILL END BY MIDNIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME G20 MPH EARLY. LOW
TEMPERATURES (BASED MOSTLY ON MAV MOS) WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S
TO LOW 40S NORTH AND MID 40S TO LOW 50S SOUTH. NO THREAT OF FROST
FAR NORTH...DUE TO THE CONTINUATION OF LIGHT-MOD WINDS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
MODERATING TREND EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5 TO 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
BUT WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AND
CLOUD COVER GENERATED BY DAYTIME HEATING WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD
AS TODAY, SO MOST AREAS WILL SEE QUITE A BIT MORE SUNSHINE THAN
THEY DID TODAY. PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACKED VERY WELL, AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WERE LEFT UNCHANGED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER NEW BRUNSWICK,
CANADA ON SUNDAY EVENING WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM TEXAS TO
WESTERN ONTARIO. THE LOW WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE RIDGE
WILL BUILD TO THE EAST AND IT IS EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION
FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS A RESULT,
WE ARE ANTICIPATING A WARMING TREND ALONG WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS
ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE WIND SHOULD FALL BELOW 5 MPH
AT MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 40S
IN MUCH OF OUR REGION. MINIMUM READINGS MAY BE IN THE LOWER 50S IN
HIGHLY URBANIZED AREAS. SOME SPOTS IN THE POCONOS AND IN FAR
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY COULD DROP INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S AND
THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FROST FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. A LIGHT NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ON MONDAY WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AIR INTO OUR REGION. THE DRY AIR
SHOULD WARM EFFICIENTLY AND WE ARE EXPECTING A 30 PLUS DEGREE
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE AT MOST LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON READINGS
ARE FORECAST TO RISE WELL INTO THE 70S.
ANOTHER COOL DRY NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH OUR REGION. THE AIR MASS WILL LIKELY
HAVE MODIFIED A BIT BY THAT TIME AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
AS THE HIGH PASSES OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY, THE SURFACE FLOW
SHOULD SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AND AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO GET NEAR 80 DEGREES IN MUCH OF OUR
REGION.
A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO OUR REGION BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
AS CONDITIONS DESTABILIZE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WE MAY SEE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS, AS WELL.
THE WARM FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO LIFT TO OUR NORTH FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH 90
EXCEPT RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.
OVERNIGHT MINIMUM READINGS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S DUE TO THE
INCREASED HUMIDITY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...VFR WILL CONTINUE AS CEILINGS BETWEEN 5 AND 7 THOUSAND
FEET DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
BUT NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME 20 KT
GUSTS PRIMARILY DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS 25+ KT BY MID-MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING TO
MVFR AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH OUR REGION. THERE IS A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR
CONDITIONS IN HAZE AND FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...
GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE. THE GALE FLAG WILL CONTINUE THOUGH THE
EVENING PERIOD WITH THE DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
AND THE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW. CLOUDS/SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN NJ
COASTAL WATERS WHICH WILL END BY MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE
TOWARD MIDNIGHT...WITH GALES PROBABLY BEING CONVERTED BACK TO SCA
FLAG OVERNIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF
SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY.
WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...SZATKOWSKI
SHORT TERM...SZATKOWSKI
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/IOVINO
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/IOVINO
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251912
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
312 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COLD WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION AS THE UPPER
LOW ROTATES OVER NEW ENGLAND. TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT FLOW
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS TO CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH FOCUSED A BIT FURTHER EAST THAN
YESTERDAY. BEYOND SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CU...SOME HIGH CIRRUS
FROM A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OFF TO THE WEST MAY MAKE IT INTO THE
WESTERN ZONES. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE FORECAST AREAS SHOULD SEE A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE...COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS ONCE
AGAIN TODAY.
WITH BUILDING HIGH CONTINUING IT`S PROGRESSION EASTWARD...EXPECT
ANOTHER CALM...CLEAR NIGHT TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMING SLIGHTLY...FOCUS OF WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE HAS
SHIFTING A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. DID HOWEVER EXPAND FREEZE
AND FROST PRODUCTS PER COORDINATION WITH ADJACENT OFFICES AND
RELATIVELY LOW DEWPOINTS REMAINING OVER THE REGION. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS REMAINS
LOW...ISOLATED POCKETS OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES COULD
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS.
SUNDAY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE A QUITE WEATHER DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
MODERATING A FEW DEGREES CLOSER TO NORMAL. WIND GUSTS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS HIGH SETTLES OVERHEAD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRES UNDR NW FLOW WL MAINTAIN DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A GREAT LAKES SHRTWV IS EXPECTED TO
REINTIATE WARM ADVCTN BY MONDAY...AND TEMPS WERE MODERATED CLOSER
TO THE AVERAGES FOR THAT TIME FRAME.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MDLS DIFFER IN DEPICTIONS OF A RESUMPTION OF A WARM ADVCTN REGIME
FOR MONDAY NGT AND TUESDAY WITH NAM BEING THE MORE AGRESSIVE IN
TERMS OF PCPN POTENTIAL. AS CHC POPS WERE ALREADY INCLUDED WITH
THE CROSSING OF THE WARM FRONT...HAVE DECIDED TO PERSIST DESPITE
GFS AND ECMWF DRY SOLNS. HOWEVER...HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING BASED ON
THESE LATEST DETERMINISTIC TRENDS AND HAVE ALSO DIMINISHED POPS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS PER EXPECTATIONS OF WARM SECTOR
DOMINATION UNDR AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE.
TEMP RECOVERY WL BE DRAMATIC...WITH READINGS CONSERVATIVELY PROGGED
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD. NORTHWEST WIND AT 10-15 WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. WHILE NONE OF THE MODELS
SUGGEST IT...SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG COULD DEVELOP AS WAS THE CASE
THIS MORNING. FOR NOW...LEFT OUT THIS MENTION IN THE TAFS AS IT MAY
HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON TERMINALS.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE RESTRICTIONS IN
SHOWERS RETURN TUESDAY WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
PAZ007>009-015-016.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ007>009-015-
016.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ013-014-
020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ001>004-012-
021>023-041.
&&
$$
[top]
000
FXUS61 KLWX 251827
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
227 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY...AND A
WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE THEN
BUILDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED ABOUT 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE IN THE
GULF OF MAINE...WHILE 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE WAS MOVING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO PRESSURE SYSTEMS HAVE HELPED TO
PRODUCE ANOTHER WINDY DAY...GUSTING AOA 25 MPH AT TIMES. BUT AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH PARTICULARLY AROUND
SUNSET.
HAVE SEEN FEW-SCT CU DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY ALONG
THE RIDGES AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS
RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE...SO CU HAVE BEEN RATHER FLAT AND HAVE
NOT PUT MUCH OF A DENT IN ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TODAY. LIKE WIND
GUSTS...ANY CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET...LEAVING A
CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT.
DESPITE THE SUNSHINE AND A DOWNSLOPING FLOW EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE THIS AFTERNOON AND
MID 60S MAY BE AS HIGH AS WE GET FOR MANY AREAS. NORMAL IS MID TO
UPPER 70S. THIS WILL PAVE THE WAY FOR ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH
MINIMA IN THE 40S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND 30S WEST OF THERE.
WILL CONTINUE THE FROST ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHLANDS FOR MINIMA IN
THE MIDS 30S...AND WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO DROP OFF LATE TONIGHT.
ON SUNDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES BUT IT SHOULD NOT BE AS WINDY
AS TODAY AND THE COOL AIR MASS SHOULD BEGIN TO MODIFY.
THEREFORE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND AROUND 70 IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE COAST ON MEMORIAL DAY
MONDAY...RESULTING IN A RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP. MAY START TO SEE
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTH OF A
WARM FRONT. THIS WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE CWA ON
TUESDAY...INSTIGATING A MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND. WITH THE
WARM FRONT AND A RETURN IN MOISTURE...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF
CONVECTION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT MOST AREAS MAY
WIND UP STAYING DRY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK...PERHAPS
EVEN INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
STATES. UNDER THE RIDGE...SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY PUT A LID ON
CONVECTION...HOWEVER CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WIND WILL BE THE WEATHER-RELATED AVIATION IMPACT THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON AT THE LWX TERMINALS. WITH GOOD
MIXING...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 KT WILL GUST TO 25 KT FOR THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE REST.
ASIDE FROM A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY...NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW PRESSURE IN THE
GULF OF MAINE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 25 KT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH SOME TONIGHT...ENOUGH FOR
THE SCA OVER THE UPPER/MID TIDAL POTOMAC TO DROP. WILL CONTINUE
WITH SCA OVER MUCH OF THE BAY/LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC INTO SUNDAY FOR
20 KT GUSTS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH SOUTHERLY FLOW UP THE FOR GUSTS AOA 15 KT DURING THE MID
WEEK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AS
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID 60S...THIS MAY BRING RH VALUES OF
NEAR 30 PERCENT IN SOME AREAS. THIS WILL OCCUR AS WINDS CONTINUE
TO GUST 20 TO 25 MPH. HOWEVER...FUEL MOISTURES ARE VERY HIGH WHICH
WILL LIMIT AN ENHANCED FIRE RISK.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
MDZ501.
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
VAZ503-504.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
WVZ501-503-505-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
537>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
536.
&&
$$
BPP
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 251728
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
128 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRY AND
COOL CONDITIONS. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN MEMORIAL DAY AND LAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH BECOMES SITUATED OFF THE EAST
COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS SFC LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFF THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN MAINE...AS THE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW SPINS OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND/SE NY STATE. FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE MCS SITUATED
OVER THE MID MS VALLEY...BUT FOR THE LOCAL AREA THIS WILL DO
LITTLE MORE THAN CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOME HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE CWA
THROUGH THE AFTN HRS (AS WELL AS THE STRONG NW FLOW LEADING TO SOME WAVE
CLOUDS IN THE THE LEE OF THE MTNS). QUITE COOL FOR MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND
WITH 11 AM OBS GENLY BETWEEN 55 AND 60 DEGREES EVEN UNDER FULL
SUN. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY...BREEZY NW FLOW
WITH GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH (HIGHEST NE). SKIES AVG OUT PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS MAINLY 65-70...ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW AVG.
ADDED A CLIMATE SECTION BELOW AS WE MAY BE CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS
IN A FEW SPOTS SUN MORNING (ALSO SET A RECORD LOW THIS MORNING AT
ECG).
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER PATTERN DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A
TROUGH IN BOTH THE WEST AND EAST WITH RIDGING OVER THE CTRL
CONUS. UPPER CLOSED LOW WILL BE SLO TO TRACK ENE THROUGH SRN/ERN
NEW ENG TNGT THROUGH SUN. DEEP LYRD NWLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN
DRY/COOL CONDS THROUGH SUN NGT. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE
40S INLAND/L50S RIGHT AT THE CST TNGT. HI TEMPS SUN FM THE U60S TO
M70S. LO TEMPS SUN NGT FM THE 40S TO L50S.
MEANWHILE...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF STATES WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT NWD LATE SUN AND MON WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...UPR
LVL RIDGE WILL FINALLY PROGRESS EWD. AS A RESULT...A WARMING
TREND WILL COMMENCE MON. AS THE RIDGE PROGRESSES EWD...A
WARM/MOIST AIRMASS WILL INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY THEN EXPECTED TO FORM INTO A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. MCS WILL ROUND THE RIDGE...BUT WILL DIE OUT
BEFORE REACHING THE MDATLC. BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD
MON NGT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HAVE AGAIN GONE CLOSE TO A ECMWF/HPC(WPC) BLEND FOR THE MIDWEEK TIME
FRAME. HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME SHRAS/ISO T LATER TUESDAY AS WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA, WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF
FVX/RIC/WAL LINE.
THE FRONT SHUNTS NORTH OF THE AREA FOR THE MID TO LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK. MEANWHILE, MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS AS SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
RESULTANT BERMUDA HIGH/SUMMER-LIKE SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
TEMPS (AND HUMIDITY VALUES) FOR THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK. RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL PRIMARILY BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN, WITH LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY AND
INCREASINGLY MUGGY CONDITIONS BY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IMPRESSIVE UPR TROF FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
SLOWLY BE LIFTING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. THIS WILL PUSH THE
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. MAIN ISSUE IN THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON
IS WIND SPEED AND GUSTS. LOOKING AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS WILL GENERALLY HAVE WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS FROM THE NW
WITH GUSTS FROM 20 TO 25 KTS. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE NEAR
SBY. AFTER SUNSET THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AND BE AROUND 10
KTS ON SUNDAY. THE DIRECTION WILL BE NORTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY.
CONTINUED MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS
COMING OFF THE MOUNTAINS INTO RIC THIS AFTERNOON MAY ALSO CROSS
PHF. STILL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS ON MEMORIAL DAY THEN WITH A
WARM FRONT APPROACHING FOR TUESDAY COULD DEVELOP SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL MVFR IN THE STORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
DEEPENING STORM JUST EAST OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE LIFTING
NEWD THIS WEEKEND. WINDS AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN THE STG
SCA RANGE TODAY...WITH GUSTS ON THE BAY/NRN COASTAL WATERS AROUND 30
KTS THROUGH AT LEAST THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS LOW MOVES AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SUNDAY WILL BE BETTER THAN TODAY FROM A
BOATING PERSPECTIVE...WITH WINDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 15 KT ON THE
BAY/RIVERS/SOUND...AND 20 KT ON THE OCEAN. HOWEVER...NW DIRECTION
SHOULD STILL KEEP CONDITIONS ON THE CHOPPHY SIDE...MAKING CONDITIONS
LESS THAN OPTIMAL. MONDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WITH WINDS MAINLY 10KT OR LESS.
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE SE COAST FROM TUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...ALLOWING FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF S/SW WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE MARINE AREA. DURING MOST OF THIS TIME FRAME...WINDS
ON THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...AND 10 TO
20 KT ON THE OCEAN.
&&
.CLIMATE...
SET A RECORD LOW AT ELIZABETH CITY NC THIS MORNING AT 43 F (OLD
RECORD HAD BEEN 47). MAY COME CLOSE TO CHALLENGING A FEW RECORD
LOWS AGAIN SUNDAY...RECORD LOWS FOR MAY 26TH ARE LISTED BELOW:
.RICHMOND............42 (1925)
.NORFOLK.............47 (1967)
.SALISBURY MD........39 (1917)
.ELIZABETH CITY NC...44 (1967)
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
635>638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
650-652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ654-656-
658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...JAB
MARINE...WRS
CLIMATE...
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251653
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1253 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COLD WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AS THE
UPPER LOW ROTATES OVER NEW ENGLAND. TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT
FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME STRONGER
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH FOCUSED A BIT FURTHER
EAST THAN YESTERDAY. BEYOND SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CU...SOME HIGH
CIRRUS FROM A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OFF TO THE WEST MAY MAKE IT INTO
THE WESTERN ZONES. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE FORECAST AREAS SHOULD SEE
A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE...COLD NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS
ONCE AGAIN TODAY.
WITH BUILDING HIGH CONTINUING IT`S PROGRESSION EASTWARD...EXPECT
ANOTHER CALM CLEAR NIGHT TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMING SLIGHTLY...FOCUS OF WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE HAS
SHIFTING A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. STILL ISOLATED POCKETS OF
FREEZING TEMPERATURES COULD OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORE
SHELTERED VALLEYS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PA/WV/MD.
SUNDAY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE A QUITE WEATHER DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
MODERATING A FEW DEGREES CLOSER TO NORMAL. WIND GUSTS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS HIGH SETTLES OVERHEAD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRES UNDR NW FLOW WL MAINTAIN DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A GREAT LAKES SHRTWV IS EXPECTED TO
REINTIATE WARM ADVCTN BY MONDAY...AND TEMPS WERE MODERATED CLOSER
TO THE AVERAGES FOR THAT TIME FRAME.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MDLS DIFFER IN DEPICTIONS OF A RESUMPTION OF A WARM ADVCTN REGIME
FOR MONDAY NGT AND TUESDAY WITH NAM BEING THE MORE AGRESSIVE IN
TERMS OF PCPN POTENTIAL. AS CHC POPS WERE ALREADY INCLUDED WITH
THE CROSSING OF THE WARM FRONT...HAVE DECIDED TO PERSIST DESPITE
GFS AND ECMWF DRY SOLNS. HOWEVER...HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING BASED ON
THESE LATEST DETERMINISTIC TRENDS AND HAVE ALSO DIMINISHED POPS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS PER EXPECTATIONS OF WARM SECTOR
DOMINATION UNDR AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE.
TEMP RECOVERY WL BE DRAMATIC...WITH READINGS CONSERVATIVELY PROGGED
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD. NOWRTHWEST WINDS 10-15 WITH GUSTS
TO 25 WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL AFTER SUNSET.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS EXPD WITH HIGH PRES IN CTRL THRU MON. SHWR/TSTM CHCS
RETURN WITH A WRMFNT MON NGT INTO WED.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ008-009-015-
016.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ007-013-014-
020>023-029-073>076.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ001-002-023-
041.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KPHI 251555
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1155 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE COD WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD INTO MAINE
ON SUNDAY. IT THEN WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN MONDAY OVER THE MARITIMES AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. A WARM FRONT
DEVELOPS OVER THE DELMARVA TUESDAY AND SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST OF
OUR AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER... SUMMERLIKE BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD BE OUR PRIMARY WEATHER INFLUENCE THURSDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WINDS ARE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE TODAY. HAVE BEEFED UP THE
FORECAST A BIT, WITH WIND GUSTS NOW IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE WITH
ISOLATED GUSTS TO 40 MPH. BELIEVE WE WILL STAY BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA SO NO WIND HEADLINES OVER THE LAND PLANNED FOR THE REST
OF TODAY. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND
WATERS...WHILE SLOWLY DEEPENING. HIGH PRESSURE IS TO THE WEST OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THE NW FLOW BETWEEN THESE
SYSTEMS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BE GUSTY FROM THE NW TODAY. WIND GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 MPH WILL OCCUR AT TIMES. CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL
LINGER NORTH/EAST THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES SOUTH/WEST WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLR DURING THE MORNING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MAY WITH HIGHS
MID 50S TO LOW 60S NORTH AND LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS WOULD
BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE LOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOLER AND DRIER
AIR ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCH EASTWARD FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLR ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A FEW
LINGERING CLOUDS FAR NORTH/EAST SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. IT
WILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME G20
MPH EARLY. LOW TEMPERATURES (BASED MOSTLY ON MAV MOS) WILL DIP INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S NORTH AND MID 40S TO LOW 50S SOUTH.
PROBABLY NO THREAT OF ANY FROST FAR NORTH...DUE TO THE CONTINUATION
OF LIGHT-MOD WINDS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500MB: AN UNUSUALLY COLD STRONG CLOSED LOW WILL BE LIFTING NWD FROM
MAINE ON SUNDAY WITH A LARGE STRONG VERY WARM RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD
FROM THE MIDWEST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN BECOMES LOCKED IN ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY BEYOND.
TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVG TEMPS NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ON SUNDAY WILL WARM TO NEAR 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
AND THEN FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD...A WARMER THAN NORMAL PERIOD OCCURS
AS THE SUMMER RIDGE REPLACES THIS CURRENTLY OUT OF SEASON COLD DAMP
BLUSTERY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES COULD AVERAGE ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
FROST: SMALL CHANCE FOR A TOUCH OF FROST IN MONROE COUNTY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. HWO.
HEAT: GREATER POTENTIAL FOR A HEAT WAVE BEGINNING WED OR THU INTO THE
START OF THE WEEKEND. NOT YET IN HWO. NEED A LITTLE MORE CONTINUITY
FOR THIS DAY 5-7 OR DAY 6-8 POTENTIAL HOT SPELL.
THE DAILIES BELOW...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE BASED ON 50 50 BLENDED GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE
AND THEN TUESDAY IS 00Z/25 GFS MEXMOS. TUE NIGHT ONWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE 0543Z/25 NCEP EXTENDED GUIDANCE
WHICH WAS MODIFIED UPWARD ON THE DAYTIME TEMPS WHERE THE GFS MEXMOS
OR 00Z/25 ECMWF 2M TEMPS WERE WARMER THAN HPC. ALL THIS DATA IS
CHECKED AGAINST ENSEMBLE POP GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE ECMWF MASS
FIELDS AND THEIR 2M TEMPS.
SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY DAY AND BLUSTERY. NW GUSTS 25-30 MPH. CLEAR
AND CHILLY AT NIGHT. LOW PROB ISOLATED FROST POCONOS. DESPITE CLIMO
IMPACT ON THE GUIDANCE...WHICH MIGHT FORECASTING THE NIGHTTIME TEMPS
A TAD ON THE MILD SIDE MONDAY MORNING...IT JUST APPEARS THE NIGHT IS
TOO SHORT AFTER A DAYTIME MAX IN THE 60S TO PERMIT FROST.
MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. W-NW G TO 15 MPH. 35 TO 40 DEGREE DIURNALS
IN THE COUNTRYSIDE.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A SMALL WARM FRONTAL SHOWER RISK BUT OVERALL
I THINK ACCEPTABLE FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITY. VARIABLE CLOUDS.
S-SW G 15 TUESDAY AND WSW ON WED.
TEMPS THU AND FRI COULD RUN 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WE ARE CURRENTLY
FCSTG IN THE 330 AM KPHI FCST PACKAGE. IT IS DAY 6-7 BUT IT LOOKS HOT
IN THE 90-93F RANGE. FOR NOW A MORE CONSERVATIVE AROUND 90F FCST.
THURSDAY...SUNNY AND PROBABLY HOT. SW G 15. 16-17C AT 850MB
FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY AND PROBABLY HOT. FOR NOW THE 12Z/24 ECMWF IDEA
OF A BACKDOOR COOL FRONT WAS SQUASHED BY ITS 00Z/25 DETERMINISTIC
RUN AND THE GEFS ARGUES STRONGLY AGAINST A BACKDOOR. SW G 15 MPH.
16-17C AT 850MB.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ABOUT ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND THEN SLOWLY MOVE AWAY TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS...PARTICULARLY TO THE
NORTH AND EAST. EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS (AND SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS SHOWERS)...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAINS VFR AT THE
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TODAY AND INTO EARLY TONIGHT WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 G35 KT INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WINDS
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT. SKIES TONIGHT INTO SUN WILL BE MOSTLY
CLR.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO NEAR 30 KT DURING THE DAY DIMINISH AT
NIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR.
MONDAY...VFR GENERALLY CLEAR WITH WEST NORTHWEST WINDS G NEAR 15 KT.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. SMALL CHANCE SUB-
VFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHWRS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH
THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE. THE GALE FLAG WILL CONTINUE THOUGH THE
TODAY/TONIGHT PERIOD WITH THE DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION AND THE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW. THE ONLY WEATHER OF
SIGNIFICANCE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE SOME CLOUDS/SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NJ COASTAL WATERS WHICH WILL GRADUALLY ERODE FROM S TO N
TODAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE A LITTLE TONIGHT...WITH GALES PROBABLY
BEING CONVERTED BACK TO SCA FLAG OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
LEFTOVER SCA WINDS AND SEAS SUNDAY (AFTER THE GALE SUBSIDES) THEN
NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE AN SCA LATE WED BUT ITS A SMALL CHANCE
ATTM AND CAPPED SEAS AT 5 FT DUE TO WAA. THAT 5 FEET LATE WED FCST
MAY ALSO BE TOO HIGH BY A FOOT OR SO.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW WATER THREAT HAS ENDED AS ALL LOCATIONS ARE PAST THE MORNING
LOW TIDE CYCLE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND UPDATE IF PROBLEMS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR AGAIN WITH UPCOMING LOW TIDE.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FORECAST FOR TODAY AND PROBABLY
TOMORROW. THEREAFTER...FOR MEMORIAL DAY AND TUESDAY THE OUTLOOK IS FOR A
LOW RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF RIP CURRENTS AS WINDS AND SWELLS DIMINISH.
SSTS ALONG THE COAST ARE QUITE VARIABLE...ESPECIALLY NJ WHERE ITS
STILL CHILLY WATERS NEAR ATLANTIC CITY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE MONTHLY AVERAGE AT PHL SHOULD COME IN ABOUT 1 DEGREE ABOVE
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST PROJECTIONS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...SZATKOWSKI/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/SZATKOWSKI/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/SZATKOWSKI/O`HARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SZATKOWSKI
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 251516
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1116 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRY AND
COOL CONDITIONS. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN MEMORIAL DAY AND LAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH BECOMES SITUATED OFF THE EAST
COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS SFC LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFF THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN MAINE...AS THE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW SPINS OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND/SE NY STATE. FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE MCS SITUATED
OVER THE MID MS VALLEY...BUT FOR THE LOCAL AREA THIS WILL DO
LITTLE MORE THAN CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOME HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE CWA
THROUGH THE AFTN HRS (AS WELL AS THE STRONG NW FLOW LEADING TO SOME WAVE
CLOUDS IN THE THE LEE OF THE MTNS). QUITE COOL FOR MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND
WITH 11 AM OBS GENLY BETWEEN 55 AND 60 DEGREES EVEN UNDER FULL
SUN. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY...BREEZY NW FLOW
WITH GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH (HIGHEST NE). SKIES AVG OUT PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS MAINLY 65-70...ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW AVG.
ADDED A CLIMATE SECTION BELOW AS WE MAY BE CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS
IN A FEW SPOTS SUN MORNING (ALSO SET A RECORD LOW THIS MORNING AT
ECG).
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER PATTERN DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A
TROUGH IN BOTH THE WEST AND EAST WITH RIDGING OVER THE CTRL
CONUS. UPPER CLOSED LOW WILL BE SLO TO TRACK ENE THROUGH SRN/ERN
NEW ENG TNGT THROUGH SUN. DEEP LYRD NWLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN
DRY/COOL CONDS THROUGH SUN NGT. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE
40S INLAND/L50S RIGHT AT THE CST TNGT. HI TEMPS SUN FM THE U60S TO
M70S. LO TEMPS SUN NGT FM THE 40S TO L50S.
MEANWHILE...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF STATES WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT NWD LATE SUN AND MON WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...UPR
LVL RIDGE WILL FINALLY PROGRESS EWD. AS A RESULT...A WARMING
TREND WILL COMMENCE MON. AS THE RIDGE PROGRESSES EWD...A
WARM/MOIST AIRMASS WILL INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY THEN EXPECTED TO FORM INTO A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. MCS WILL ROUND THE RIDGE...BUT WILL DIE OUT
BEFORE REACHING THE MDATLC. BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD
MON NGT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE AGAIN GONE CLOSE TO A ECMWF/HPC(WPC) BLEND FOR THE MIDWEEK TIME
FRAME. HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME SHRAS/ISO T LATER TUESDAY AS WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA, WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF
FVX/RIC/WAL LINE.
THE FRONT SHUNTS NORTH OF THE AREA FOR THE MID TO LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK. MEANWHILE, MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS AS SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
RESULTANT BERMUDA HIGH/SUMMER-LIKE SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
TEMPS (AND HUMIDITY VALUES) FOR THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK. RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL PRIMARILY BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN, WITH LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY AND
INCREASINGLY MUGGY CONDITIONS BY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IMPRESSIVE UPR TROF FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR CURRENTLY CROSSING
AREA...AND WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW. THIS WILL PROVIDE
FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR WITH GENERALLY SKC. AT 06Z...STILL
BKN/OVC ALTO CU ACROSS THE DELMARVA...WHICH SHOULD CLEAR IN THE
NEXT 2-4 HOURS. BIGGEST ISSUE NEXT 24 HOURS IS WIND. MOST
TERMINALS SHOULD SEE GUSTS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE DURING THE DAY
TODAY...THEN DIMINISH AFTER 00Z SUN. WINDS SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY
LESS ON SUNDAY...ALTHO SOME GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE.
NEXT CHC FOR CEILING/VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE LATER MON-TUE AS A
WARM FRONT BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE.
&&
.MARINE...
DEEPENING STORM JUST EAST OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE LIFTING
NEWD THIS WEEKEND. WINDS AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN THE STG
SCA RANGE TODAY...WITH GUSTS ON THE BAY/NRN COASTAL WATERS AROUND 30
KTS THROUGH AT LEAST THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS LOW MOVES AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SUNDAY WILL BE BETTER THAN TODAY FROM A
BOATING PERSPECTIVE...WITH WINDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 15 KT ON THE
BAY/RIVERS/SOUND...AND 20 KT ON THE OCEAN. HOWEVER...NW DIRECTION
SHOULD STILL KEEP CONDITIONS ON THE CHOPPHY SIDE...MAKING CONDITIONS
LESS THAN OPTIMAL. MONDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WITH WINDS MAINLY 10KT OR LESS.
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE SE COAST FROM TUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...ALLOWING FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF S/SW WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE MARINE AREA. DURING MOST OF THIS TIME FRAME...WINDS
ON THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...AND 10 TO
20 KT ON THE OCEAN.
&&
.CLIMATE...
SET A RECORD LOW AT ELIZABETH CITY NC THIS MORNING AT 43 F (OLD
RECORD HAD BEEN 47). MAY COME CLOSE TO CHALLENGING A FEW RECORD
LOWS AGAIN SUNDAY...RECORD LOWS FOR MAY 26TH ARE LISTED BELOW:
.RICHMOND............42 (1925)
.NORFOLK.............47 (1967)
.SALISBURY MD........39 (1917)
.ELIZABETH CITY NC...44 (1967)
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
635>638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
650-652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ654-656-
658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...WRS
CLIMATE...AKQ
000
FXUS61 KLWX 251321
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
921 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE WEEK...AND A
WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER WINDY AND COOL DAY...BUT UNLIKE YESTERDAY
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND
MIXING WILL BE GOOD SO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 30 TO 35
MPH AT TIMES INTO THE AFTERNOON.
REPOPULATED MAXIMA USING A BLEND OF BIAS CORRECTED MOS/SREF
GUIDANCE WHICH HAS PERFORMED WELL LATELY. RESULT IS MID TO UPPER
60S ACROSS THE CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
NWLY GUSTS EASE WITH ONLY SHELTERED VALLEYS DECOUPLING. MIN TEMPS
LOW 40S INLAND WITH SOME UPR 30S IN THE SHEN VLY AND AROUND 50F
FOR URBAN/NEAR SHORE.
COOL AGAIN IN THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS...WENT FOR MID 30S WITH 925
AND 850MB TEMPS PROGGED A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER THAN NOW. DESPITE
EXPECTED MIXING WILL GO WITH A FROST ADVISORY FOR WRN PORTIONS OF
ALLEGANY...MINERAL...AND GRANT COUNTIES (DIVISION IS THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT) AS WELL AS HIGHLAND/ PENDLETON. TEMPS TEND TO DROP OFF
RAPIDLY IN CLEAR CONDITIONS AS EXPECTED TONIGHT...SO WENT FOR
MIDNIGHT TO 8 AM FOR THE HEADLINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE XTND PORTION OF THE FCST LOOKS PRETTY CUT AND DRIED. HIGH PRES
OVR THE AREA SUNDAY SHOULD BRING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND CONTINUED
COOLER THAN NRML TEMPS. ON MON HGH TEMPS SHOULD DRAW CLOSER TO
NRML - U70S. AFTR THAT DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB AS HIGH PRES
MOVES OFFSHORE AND A TROF DVLPS E OF THE ROCKIES RIGHT THROUGH
FRI. HIGHS IN THE U80S...PSBLY A90 BY WEEK`S END. LOWS IN THE 60S.
PCPN CHCS LOOK PRETTY SCANT IN THE COMING WK. PERHAPS AFTN/EVE
ISOLD TSTMS OVR THE MTNS FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WK.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WIND WILL BE THE WEATHER-RELATED AVIATION IMPACT TODAY AT THE LWX
TERMINALS. WITH GOOD MIXING...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 KT WILL GUST
TO 25 KT TODAY AND COULD OCCASIONALLY GUST NEAR 30 KT. GUSTS
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET BUT MAY RETURN TO NEAR 20 KT ON SUNDAY.
IN THE XTND VFR CONDS XPCTD THRU MIDWEEK FOR NO SIG WX.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TODAY WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT
A HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 30 KT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS EASE THIS EVENING WITH MIDDLE/UPR
TIDAL POTOMAC DROPPING OFF THE SCA AT 8PM. REST OF WATERS SEE 20
KT GUSTS THROUGH TONIGHT.
IN THE XTND...IT IS LKLY THAT SOME GUSTS REACHING SCA LVL WL OCCUR
ON THE BAY/LWR PTMC SUN AFTN. THEN NO PROBS XPCTD ON THE WATERS
MEM DAY OR THRU MIDWEEK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AS
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID 60S...THIS MAY BRING RH VALUES OF
25 TO 30 PERCENT. THIS WILL OCCUR AS WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST OVER
25 MPH. HOWEVER...FUEL MOISTURES ARE VERY HIGH WHICH WILL LIMIT
AN ENHANCED FIRE RISK.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
MDZ501.
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
VAZ503-504.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
WVZ501-503-505-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
537>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
536.
&&
$$
BPP/BAJ/WOODY!
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251200
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
800 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COLD WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO REBOUND HAVE CANCELLED THE
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FOR THIS MORNING. ONLY OTHER ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE TO DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND SKY COVER THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AS STRATUS REMAINS ENTRENCHED IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND THE RIDGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
AS UPR/MID LVL TROF AXIS HAS DUG TWD THE COAST...COLD NW FLOW OVR THE
UPR OH REGION...WITH HIGH PRES ON THE SFC...WL MAINTAIN SUB-AVERAGE
TEMPS TDA...WHICH WERE FORECAST 10 TO 15 DEG UNDR USING A BLEND OF
ALREADY-CLOSE GUIDANCE.
EXPECT SOME HIGH-BASED STRATOCU TO FORM THIS AFTN AS PROGGED
CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD BE EXCEEDED...BUT ONLY SCT COVERAGE IS
ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE FORECAST TEMP/DP SPREADS.
THE SFC HIGH PRES AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE FURTHER EWD OVR THE
AREA TNGT. ANOTHER COLD NGT IS THUS ANTICIPATED...BUT HEADLINES
HAVE BEEN SHIFTED EWD ALSO...WITH A SMALLER FREEZE AREA LIMITED TO
THE NRN ZONES GIVEN PROGNOSIS OF AN OVRALL WARMER COLUMN. DAY
SHIFT MAY HAVE TO ADJUST AS RADIATION CONDITIONS MAY SPPRT A MORE
EXPANDED AREA...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE RIDGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRES UNDR NW FLOW WL MAINTAIN DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A GREAT LAKES SHRTWV IS EXPECTED TO
REINTIATE WARM ADVCTN BY MONDAY...AND TEMPS WERE MODERATED CLOSER
TO THE AVERAGES FOR THAT TIME FRAME.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MDLS DIFFER IN DEPICTIONS OF A RESUMPTION OF A WARM ADVCTN REGIME
FOR MONDAY NGT AND TUESDAY WITH NAM BEING THE MORE AGRESSIVE IN
TERMS OF PCPN POTENTIAL. AS CHC POPS WERE ALREADY INCLUDED WITH
THE CROSSING OF THE WARM FRONT...HAVE DECIDED TO PERSIST DESPITE
GFS AND ECMWF DRY SOLNS. HOWEVER...HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING BASED ON
THESE LATEST DETERMINISTIC TRENDS AND HAVE ALSO DIMINISHED POPS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS PER EXPECTATIONS OF WARM SECTOR
DOMINATION UNDR AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE.
TEMP RECOVERY WL BE DRAMATIC...WITH READINGS CONSERVATIVELY PROGGED
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PTCHY IFR IN BR/STRATUS HAS DVLPD ACRS THE FKL/DUJ AREA...AS WELL
AS HLG. THIS SHOULD QUICKLY END THIS MRNG AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MIXES
DOWN. OTRW MCLR SKIES AND NW WNDS GUSTING TO 20-25KT EXPD FOR TDA.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS EXPD WITH HIGH PRES IN CTRL THRU MON. SHWR/TSTM CHCS
RETURN WITH A WRMFNT MON NGT INTO WED.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ008-009-015-
016.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ007-013-014-
020>023-029-073>076.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ001-002-023-
041.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KPHI 250939
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
539 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE COD WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE
MAINE ON SUNDAY. IT THEN WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN MONDAY OVER THE MARITIMES
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. A WARM FRONT
DEVELOPS OVER THE DELMARVA TUESDAY AND SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST OF
OUR AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER... SUMMERLIKE BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD BE OUR PRIMARY WEATHER INFLUENCE THURSDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS...WHILE
SLOWLY DEEPENING. HIGH PRESSURE IS TO THE WEST OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THE NW FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL CAUSE
WINDS TO BE GUSTY FROM THE NW TODAY. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH
WILL OCCUR AT TIMES. CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER NORTH/EAST
THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SOUTH/WEST
WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLR DURING THE MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MAY WITH HIGHS MID 50S TO LOW
60S NORTH AND LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS WOULD BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE LOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOLER AND DRIER
AIR ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCH EASTWARD FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLR ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A FEW
LINGERING CLOUDS FAR NORTH/EAST SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. IT
WILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME G20
MPH EARLY. LOW TEMPERATURES (BASED MOSTLY ON MAV MOS) WILL DIP INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S NORTH AND MID 40S TO LOW 50S SOUTH.
PROBABLY NO THREAT OF ANY FROST FAR NORTH...DUE TO THE CONTINUATION
OF LIGHT-MOD WINDS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500MB: AN UNUSUALLY COLD STRONG CLOSED LOW WILL BE LIFTING NWD FROM
MAINE ON SUNDAY WITH A LARGE STRONG VERY WARM RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD
FROM THE MIDWEST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN BECOMES LOCKED IN ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY BEYOND.
TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVG TEMPS NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ON SUNDAY WILL WARM TO NEAR 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
AND THEN FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD...A WARMER THAN NORMAL PERIOD OCCURS
AS THE SUMMER RIDGE REPLACES THIS CURRENTLY OUT OF SEASON COLD DAMP
BLUSTERY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES COULD AVERAGE ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
FROST: SMALL CHANCE FOR A TOUCH OF FROST IN MONROE COUNTY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. HWO.
HEAT: GREATER POTENTIAL FOR A HEAT WAVE BEGINNING WED OR THU INTO THE
START OF THE WEEKEND. NOT YET IN HWO. NEED A LITTLE MORE CONTINUITY
FOR THIS DAY 5-7 OR DAY 6-8 POTENTIAL HOT SPELL.
THE DAILIES BELOW...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE BASED ON 50 50 BLENDED GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE
AND THEN TUESDAY IS 00Z/25 GFS MEXMOS. TUE NIGHT ONWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE 0543Z/25 NCEP EXTENDED GUIDANCE
WHICH WAS MODIFIED UPWARD ON THE DAYTIME TEMPS WHERE THE GFS MEXMOS
OR 00Z/25 ECMWF 2M TEMPS WERE WARMER THAN HPC. ALL THIS DATA IS
CHECKED AGAINST ENSEMBLE POP GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE ECMWF MASS
FIELDS AND THEIR 2M TEMPS.
SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY DAY AND BLUSTERY. NW GUSTS 25-30 MPH. CLEAR
AND CHILLY AT NIGHT. LOW PROB ISOLATED FROST POCONOS. DESPITE CLIMO
IMPACT ON THE GUIDANCE...WHICH MIGHT FORECASTING THE NIGHTTIME TEMPS
A TAD ON THE MILD SIDE MONDAY MORNING...IT JUST APPEARS THE NIGHT IS
TOO SHORT AFTER A DAYTIME MAX IN THE 60S TO PERMIT FROST.
MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. W-NW G TO 15 MPH. 35 TO 40 DEGREE DIURNALS
IN THE COUNTRYSIDE.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A SMALL WARM FRONTAL SHOWER RISK BUT OVERALL
I THINK ACCEPTABLE FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITY. VARIABLE CLOUDS.
S-SW G 15 TUESDAY AND WSW ON WED.
TEMPS THU AND FRI COULD RUN 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WE ARE CURRENTLY
FCSTG IN THE 330 AM KPHI FCST PACKAGE. IT IS DAY 6-7 BUT IT LOOKS HOT
IN THE 90-93F RANGE. FOR NOW A MORE CONSERVATIVE AROUND 90F FCST.
THURSDAY...SUNNY AND PROBABLY HOT. SW G 15. 16-17C AT 850MB
FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY AND PROBABLY HOT. FOR NOW THE 12Z/24 ECMWF IDEA
OF A BACKDOOR COOL FRONT WAS SQUASHED BY ITS 00Z/25 DETERMINISTIC
RUN AND THE GEFS ARGUES STRONGLY AGAINST A BACKDOOR. SW G 15 MPH.
16-17C AT 850MB.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ABOUT ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND THEN SLOWLY MOVE AWAY TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS NORTH/EAST WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH/WEST THROUGH THE DAY.
EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS (AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS)...CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAINS VFR AT THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TODAY
AND INTO EARLY TONIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 G25
EARLY...THEN 15 TO 25 G30 KT FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT. SKIES SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN WILL BE MOSTLY CLR.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO NEAR 25 KT DURING THE DAY DIMINISH AT
NIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR.
MONDAY...VFR GENERALLY CLEAR WITH WEST NORTHWEST WINDS G NEAR 15 KT.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. SMALL CHANCE SUB-
VFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHWRS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH
THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
WE WILL PUT UP THE GALE AT THE NORTHERN TWO COASTAL ZONES WITH THE
400 AM CWF ISSUANCE. THE GALE FLAG WILL CONTINUE THOUGH THE
TODAY/TONIGHT PERIOD WITH THE DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION AND THE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW. THE ONLY WEATHER OF SIGNIFICANCE
IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE SOME MORNING CLOUDS/SHOWERS ACROSS THE NJ
COASTAL WATERS WHICH WILL GRADUALLY ERODE FROM S TO N TODAY. WINDS
WILL DECREASE A LITTLE TONIGHT...WITH GALES PROBABLY BEING CONVERTED
BACK TO SCA FLAG OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
LEFTOVER SCA WINDS AND SEAS SUNDAY (AFTER THE GALE SUBSIDES) THEN
NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE AN SCA LATE WED BUT ITS A SMALL CHANCE
ATTM AND CAPPED SEAS AT 5 FT DUE TO WAA. THAT 5 FEET LATE WED FCST
MAY ALSO BE TOO HIGH BY A FOOT OR SO.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE LOW WATER ADVISORY ACROSS DEL BAY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 800 AM.
THE DEPARTURES OVERNIGHT HAVE GONE DOWN TO -1.5 TO -2.5 BELOW NORMAL
AND THEY HAVEN`T CHANGED MUCH AS THE LOW TIDE HAS ARRIVED ACROSS THE
BAY. IF IT APPEARS THAT THESE DEPARTURES WILL CARRY UP INTO THE DEL
RIVER...AN SPS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FORECAST FOR TODAY AND PROBABLY
TOMORROW. THEREAFTER...FOR MEMORIAL DAY AND TUESDAY THE OUTLOOK IS FOR A
LOW RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF RIP CURRENTS AS WINDS AND SWELLS DIMINISH.
SSTS ALONG THE COAST ARE QUITE VARIABLE...ESPECIALLY NJ WHERE ITS
STILL CHILLY WATERS NEAR ATLANTIC CITY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE MONTHLY AVERAGE AT PHL SHOULD COME IN ABOUT 1 DEGREE ABOVE
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST PROJECTIONS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE... 538
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 250852
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
452 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRY AND
COOL CONDITIONS. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN MEMORIAL DAY AND LAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH BECOMES SITUATED OFF THE EAST
COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC LO PRES DVLPG INVOF CAPE COD ATTM...W/ TROUGH ALOFT PUSHING
OFF THE MDATLC CST. AREA OF CLDNS (CIGS ARND 5KFT) ASSOCIATED W/
THE TROUGH RMNS SLO TO MOVE AWAY FM/DISSIPATE OVR THE ERN SHR AND
ADJACENT CSTL WTRS. OTRW...SFC HI PRES INVOF GREAT LAKES/OH VLY
SPREADING SE INTO THE MDATLC AND SE CONUS STATES. 06Z/25 RUC
SHOWING CLDNS GENLY OFF THE CST BY 12Z/25. W/ THE STM CONTG TO
MOVE (SLOLY) AWAY FM NEW ENG...AND HI PRES BUILDING INTO THE RGN
FM THE NW...DRY/COOL WX XPCD TO START THE HOLIDAY WKND. NW WNDS
RMNG GUSTY (TO 25-40 MPH) THROUGHOUT THE DAY NR THE CST...AND
BREEZY INLAND. HI TEMPS FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER PATTERN DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A
TROUGH IN BOTH THE WEST AND EAST WITH RIDGING OVER THE CTRL
CONUS. UPPER CLOSED LOW WILL BE SLO TO TRACK ENE THROUGH SRN/ERN
NEW ENG TNGT THROUGH SUN. DEEP LYRD NWLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN
DRY/COOL CONDS THROUGH SUN NGT. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE
40S INALDN/L50S RIGHT AT THE CST TNGT. HI TEMPS SUN FM THE U60S TO
M70S. LO TEMPS SUN NGT FM THE 40S TO L50S.
MEANWHILE...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF STATES WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT NWD LATE SUN AND MON WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...UPR
LVL RIDGE WILL FINALLY PROGRESS EWD. AS A RESULT...A WARMING
TREND WILL COMMENCE MON. AS THE RIDGE PROGRESSES EWD...A
WARM/MOIST AIRMASS WILL INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY THEN EXPECTED TO FORM INTO A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. MCS WILL ROUND THE RIDGE...BUT WILL DIE OUT
BEFORE REACHING THE MDATLC. BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD
MON NGT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE AGAIN GONE CLOSE TO A ECMWF/HPC(WPC) BLEND FOR THE MIDWEEK TIME
FRAME. HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME SHRAS/ISO T LATER TUESDAY AS WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA, WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF
FVX/RIC/WAL LINE.
THE FRONT SHUNTS NORTH OF THE AREA FOR THE MID TO LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK. MEANWHILE, MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS AS SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
RESULTANT BERMUDA HIGH/SUMMER-LIKE SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
TEMPS (AND HUMIDITY VALUES) FOR THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK. RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL PRIMARILY BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN, WITH LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY AND
INCREASINGLY MUGGY CONDITIONS BY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IMPRESSIVE UPR TROF FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR CURRENTLY CROSSING
AREA...AND WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW. THIS WILL PROVIDE
FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR WITH GENERALLY SKC. AT 06Z...STILL
BKN/OVC ALTO CU ACROSS THE DELMARVA...WHICH SHOULD CLEAR IN THE
NEXT 2-4 HOURS. BIGGEST ISSUE NEXT 24 HOURS IS WIND. MOST
TERMINALS SHOULD SEE GUSTS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE DURING THE DAY
TODAY...THEN DIMINISH AFTER 00Z SUN. WINDS SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY
LESS ON SUNDAY...ALTHO SOME GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE.
NEXT CHC FOR CEILING/VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE LATER MON-TUE AS A
WARM FRONT BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE.
&&
.MARINE...
DEEPENING STORM JUST EAST OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE LIFTING
NEWD THIS WEEKEND. WINDS AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN THE STG
SCA RANGE TODAY...WITH GUSTS ON THE BAY/NRN COASTAL WATERS AROUND 30
KTS THROUGH AT LEAST THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS LOW MOVES AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SUNDAY WILL BE BETTER THAN TODAY FROM A
BOATING PERSPECTIVE...WITH WINDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 15 KT ON THE
BAY/RIVERS/SOUND...AND 20 KT ON THE OCEAN. HOWEVER...NW DIRECTION
SHOULD STILL KEEP CONDITIONS ON THE CHOPPHY SIDE...MAKING CONDITIONS
LESS THAN OPTIMAL. MONDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WITH WINDS MAINLY 10KT OR LESS.
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE SE COAST FROM TUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...ALLOWING FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF S/SW WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE MARINE AREA. DURING MOST OF THIS TIME FRAME...WINDS
ON THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...AND 10 TO
20 KT ON THE OCEAN.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
635>638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
650-652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ654-656-
658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/SAM
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...WRS
000
FXUS61 KPHI 250802
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
402 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE COD WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE
EASTERN MAINE SUNDAY. IT THEN WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN MONDAY OVER THE
MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. A
WARM FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE DELMARVA TUESDAY AND SLOWLY LIFTS
NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER... SUMMERLIKE
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE OUR PRIMARY WEATHER INFLUENCE
THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS...WHILE
SLOWLY DEEPENING. HIGH PRESSURE IS TO THE WEST OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THE NW FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL CAUSE
WINDS TO BE GUSTY FROM THE NW TODAY. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH
WILL OCCUR AT TIMES. CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER NORTH/EAST
THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SOUTH/WEST
WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLR DURING THE MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MAY WITH HIGHS MID 50S TO LOW
60S NORTH AND LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS WOULD BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE LOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOLER AND DRIER
AIR ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCH EASTWARD FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLR ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A FEW
LINGERING CLOUDS FAR NORTH/EAST SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. IT
WILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME G20
MPH EARLY. LOW TEMPERATURES (BASED MOSTLY ON MAV MOS) WILL DIP INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S NORTH AND MID 40S TO LOW 50S SOUTH.
PROBABLY NO THREAT OF ANY FROST FAR NORTH...DUE TO THE CONTINUATION
OF LIGHT-MOD WINDS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500MB: AN UNUSUALLY COLD STRONG CLOSED LOW WILL BE LIFTING NWD FROM
MAINE ON SUNDAY WITH A LARGE STRONG VERY WARM RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD
FROM THE MIDWEST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN BECOMES LOCKED IN ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY BEYOND.
TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVG TEMPS NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ON SUNDAY WILL WARM TO NEAR 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
AND THEN FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD...A WARMER THAN NORMAL PERIOD OCCURS
AS THE SUMMER RIDGE REPLACES THIS CURRENTLY OUT OF SEASON COLD DAMP
BLUSTERY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES COULD AVERAGE ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
FROST: SMALL CHANCE FOR A TOUCH OF FROST IN MONROE COUNTY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. HWO.
HEAT: GREATER POTENTIAL FOR A HEAT WAVE BEGINNING WED OR THU INTO THE
START OF THE WEEKEND. NOT YET IN HWO. NEED A LITTLE MORE CONTINUITY
FOR THIS DAY 5-7 OR DAY 6-8 POTENTIAL HOT SPELL.
THE DAILIES BELOW...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE BASED ON 50 50 BLENDED GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE
AND THEN TUESDAY IS 00Z/25 GFS MEXMOS. TUE NIGHT ONWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE 0543Z/25 NCEP EXTENDED GUIDANCE
WHICH WAS MODIFIED UPWARD ON THE DAYTIME TEMPS WHERE THE GFS MEXMOS
OR 00Z/25 ECMWF 2M TEMPS WERE WARMER THAN HPC. ALL THIS DATA IS
CHECKED AGAINST ENSEMBLE POP GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE ECMWF MASS
FIELDS AND THEIR 2M TEMPS.
SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY DAY AND BLUSTERY. NW GUSTS 25-30 MPH. CLEAR
AND CHILLY AT NIGHT. LOW PROB ISOLATED FROST POCONOS. DESPITE CLIMO
IMPACT ON THE GUIDANCE...WHICH MIGHT FORECASTING THE NIGHTTIME TEMPS
A TAD ON THE MILD SIDE MONDAY MORNING...IT JUST APPEARS THE NIGHT IS
TOO SHORT AFTER A DAYTIME MAX IN THE 60S TO PERMIT FROST.
MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. W-NW G TO 15 MPH. 35 TO 40 DEGREE DIURNALS
IN THE COUNTRYSIDE.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A SMALL WARM FRONTAL SHOWER RISK BUT OVERALL
I THINK ACCEPTABLE FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITY. VARIABLE CLOUDS.
S-SW G 15 TUESDAY AND WSW ON WED.
TEMPS THU AND FRI COULD RUN 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WE ARE CURRENTLY
FCSTG IN THE 330 AM KPHI FCST PACKAGE. IT IS DAY 6-7 BUT IT LOOKS HOT
IN THE 90-93F RANGE. FOR NOW A MORE CONSERVATIVE AROUND 90F FCST.
THURSDAY...SUNNY AND PROBABLY HOT. SW G 15. 16-17C AT 850MB
FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY AND PROBABLY HOT. FOR NOW THE 12Z/24 ECMWF IDEA
OF A BACKDOOR COOL FRONT WAS SQUASHED BY ITS 00Z/25 DETERMINISTIC
RUN AND THE GEFS ARGUES STRONGLY AGAINST A BACKDOOR. SW G 15 MPH.
16-17C AT 850MB.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ABOUT ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND THEN SLOWLY MOVE AWAY TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS NORTH/EAST WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH/WEST THROUGH THE DAY.
EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS (AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS)...CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAINS VFR AT THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TODAY
AND INTO EARLY TONIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 G25
EARLY...THEN 15 TO 25 G30 KT FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT. SKIES SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN WILL BE MOSTLY CLR.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO NEAR 25 KT DURING THE DAY DIMINISH AT
NIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR.
MONDAY...VFR MOSTLY CLEAR WITH WEST NORTHWEST WINDS G NEAR 15 KT.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. SMALL CHANCE SUB-
VFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHWRS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH
THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
WE WILL PUT UP THE GALE AT THE NORTHERN TWO COASTAL ZONES WITH THE
400 AM CWF ISSUANCE. THE GALE FLAG WILL CONTINUE THOUGH THE
TODAY/TONIGHT PERIOD WITH THE DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION AND THE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW. THE ONLY WEATHER OF SIGNIFICANCE
IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE SOME MORNING CLOUDS/SHOWERS ACROSS THE NJ
COASTAL WATERS WHICH WILL GRADUALLY ERODE FROM S TO N TODAY. WINDS
WILL DECREASE A LITTLE TONIGHT...WITH GALES PROBABLY BEING CONVERTED
BACK TO SCA FLAG OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
LEFTOVER SCA WINDS AND SEAS SUNDAY (AFTER THE GALE SUBSIDES) THEN
NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE AN SCA LATE WED BUT ITS A SMALL CHANCE
ATTM AND CAPPED SEAS AT 5 FT DUE TO WAA. THAT 5 FEET LATE WED FCST
MAY ALSO BE TOO HIGH BY A FOOT OR SO.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE LOW WATER ADVISORY ACROSS DEL BAY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 800 AM.
THE DEPARTURES OVERNIGHT HAVE GONE DOWN TO -1.5 TO -2.5 BELOW NORMAL
AND THEY HAVEN`T CHANGED MUCH AS THE LOW TIDE HAS ARRIVED ACROSS THE
BAY. IF IT APPEARS THAT THESE DEPARTURES WILL CARRY UP INTO THE DEL
RIVER...AN SPS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FORECAST FOR TODAY AND PROBABLY
TOMORROW. THEREAFTER...FOR MEMORIAL DAY AND TUESDAY THE OUTLOOK IS FOR A
LOW RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF RIP CURRENTS AS WINDS AND SWELLS DIMINISH.
SSTS ALONG THE COAST ARE QUITE VARIABLE...ESPECIALLY NJ WHERE ITS
STILL CHILLY WATERS NEAR ATLANTIC CITY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-452>455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 401
NEAR TERM...O`HARA 401
SHORT TERM...O`HARA 401
LONG TERM...DRAG 401
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA 401
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA 401
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...401
RIP CURRENTS...401
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250746
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
346 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COLD WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TEMP DROP OVR AREAS N AND E OF PIT HAS BEEN RETARDED THIS MRNG BY
SCT TO BKN STRATOCU DECK THAT HAS RECOVERED SINCE MIDNGT. NEVERTHELESS...SOME
LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE FREEZING MARK AND THE REST CONT O
FLIRT WITH THE THRESHOLD. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA COUNTIES ARE
IN THE MID 30S FOR THE MOST PART WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 30S.
FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINE WL THUS BE MAINTAINED UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK.
AS UPR/MID LVL TROF AXIS HAS DUG TWD THE COAST...COLD NW FLOW OVR THE
UPR OH REGION...WITH HIGH PRES ON THE SFC...WL MAINTAIN SUB-AVERAGE
TEMPS TDA...WHICH WERE FORECAST 10 TO 15 DEG UNDR USING A BLEND OF
ALREADY-CLOSE GUIDANCE.
EXPECT SOME HIGH-BASED STRATOCU TO FORM THIS AFTN AS PROGGED
CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD BE EXCEEDED...BUT ONLY SCT COVERAGE IS
ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE FORECAST TEMP/DP SPREADS.
THE SFC HIGH PRES AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE FURTHER EWD OVR THE
AREA TNGT. ANOTHER COLD NGT IS THUS ANTICIPATED...BUT HEADLINES
HAVE BEEN SHIFTED EWD ALSO...WITH A SMALLER FREEZE AREA LIMITED TO
THE NRN ZONES GIVEN PROGNOSIS OF AN OVRALL WARMER COLUMN. DAY
SHIFT MAY HAVE TO ADJUST AS RADIATION CONDITIONS MAY SPPRT A MORE
EXPANDED AREA...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE RIDGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRES UNDR NW FLOW WL MAINTAIN DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A GREAT LAKES SHRTWV IS EXPECTED TO
REINTIATE WARM ADVCTN BY MONDAY...AND TEMPS WERE MODERATED CLOSER
TO THE AVERAGES FOR THAT TIME FRAME.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MDLS DIFFER IN DEPICTIONS OF A RESUMPTION OF A WARM ADVCTN REGIME
FOR MONDAY NGT AND TUESDAY WITH NAM BEING THE MORE AGRESSIVE IN
TERMS OF PCPN POTENTIAL. AS CHC POPS WERE ALREADY INCLUDED WITH
THE CROSSING OF THE WARM FRONT...HAVE DECIDED TO PERSIST DESPITE
GFS AND ECMWF DRY SOLNS. HOWEVER...HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING BASED ON
THESE LATEST DETERMINISTIC TRENDS AND HAVE ALSO DIMINISHED POPS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS PER EXPECTATIONS OF WARM SECTOR
DOMINATION UNDR AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE.
TEMP RECOVERY WL BE DRAMATIC...WITH READINGS CONSERVATIVELY PROGGED
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PTCHY MVFR STRATOCU TO THE NORTH OF THE PA TURNPIKE WL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE AFT SUNRISE AS DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN. BRF MVFR CIGS ARE
PSBL...WITH IFR AT DUJ...THRU SUNRISE. OTRW MCLR SKIES AND NW WNDS
GUSTING TO 20-25KT EXPD FOR TDA.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS EXPD WITH HIGH PRES IN CTRL THRU MON. SHWR/TSTM CHCS
RETURN WITH A WRMFNT MON NGT INTO WED.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ001.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ001.
OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ020-021-029-
031-073-075.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ007-013-014-
020>023-029-073>076.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ007>009-
013>016-022-023-074-076.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ008-009-015-
016.
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ001>004-012-
021-022.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ001-002-023-
041.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ023-041.
&&
$$
15/07
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 250736
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
336 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRY AND
COOL CONDITIONS. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH BECOMES SITUATED OFF THE EAST COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC LO PRES DVLPG INVOF CAPE COD ATTM...W/ TROUGH ALOFT PUSHING
OFF THE MDATLC CST. AREA OF CLDNS (CIGS ARND 5KFT) ASSOCIATED W/
THE TROUGH RMNS SLO TO MOVE AWAY FM/DISSIPATE OVR THE ERN SHR AND
ADJACENT CSTL WTRS. OTRW...SFC HI PRES INVOF GREAT LAKES/OH VLY
SPREADING SE INTO THE MDATLC AND SE CONUS STATES. 06Z/25 RUC
SHOWING CLDNS GENLY OFF THE CST BY 12Z/25. W/ THE STM CONTG TO
MOVE (SLOLY) AWAY FM NEW ENG...AND HI PRES BUILDING INTO THE RGN
FM THE NW...DRY/COOL WX XPCD TO START THE HOLIDAY WKND. NW WNDS
RMNG GUSTY (TO 25-40 MPH) THROUGHOUT THE DAY NR THE CST...AND
BREEZY INLAND. HI TEMPS FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER PATTERN DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A
TROUGH IN BOTH THE WEST AND EAST WITH RIDGING OVER THE CTRL
CONUS. UPPER CLOSED LOW WILL BE SLO TO TRACK ENE THROUGH SRN/ERN
NEW ENG TNGT THROUGH SUN. DEEP LYRD NWLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN
DRY/COOL CONDS THROUGH SUN NGT. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE
40S INALDN/L50S RIGHT AT THE CST TNGT. HI TEMPS SUN FM THE U60S TO
M70S. LO TEMPS SUN NGT FM THE 40S TO L50S.
MEANWHILE...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF STATES WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT NWD LATE SUN AND MON WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...UPR
LVL RIDGE WILL FINALLY PROGRESS EWD. AS A RESULT...A WARMING
TREND WILL COMMENCE MON. AS THE RIDGE PROGRESSES EWD...A
WARM/MOIST AIRMASS WILL INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY THEN EXPECTED TO FORM INTO A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. MCS WILL ROUND THE RIDGE...BUT WILL DIE OUT
BEFORE REACHING THE MDATLC. BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD
MON NGT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE AGAIN GONE CLOSE TO A ECMWF/HPC(WPC) BLEND FOR THE MIDWEEK TIME
FRAME. HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME SHRAS/ISO T LATER TUESDAY AS WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA, WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF
FVX/RIC/WAL LINE.
THE FRONT SHUNTS NORTH OF THE AREA FOR THE MID TO LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK. MEANWHILE, MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS AS SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
RESULTANT BERMUDA HIGH/SUMMER-LIKE SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
TEMPS (AND HUMIDITY VALUES) FOR THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK. RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL PRIMARILY BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN, WITH LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY AND
INCREASINGLY MUGGY CONDITIONS BY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IMPRESSIVE UPR TROF FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR CURRENTLY CROSSING
AREA...AND WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW. THIS WILL PROVIDE
FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR WITH GENERALLY SKC. AT 06Z...STILL
BKN/OVC ALTO CU ACROSS THE DELMARVA...WHICH SHOULD CLEAR IN THE
NEXT 2-4 HOURS. BIGGEST ISSUE NEXT 24 HOURS IS WIND. MOST
TERMINALS SHOULD SEE GUSTS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE DURING THE DAY
TODAY...THEN DIMINISH AFTER 00Z SUN. WINDS SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY
LESS ON SUNDAY...ALTHO SOME GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE.
NEXT CHC FOR CEILING/VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE LATER MON-TUE AS A
WARM FRONT BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE.
&&
.MARINE...
DEEPENING STORM JUST EAST OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE LIFTING
NEWD THIS WEEKEND. WINDS AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN THE STG
SCA RANGE TODAY...WITH GUSTS ON THE BAY/NRN COASTAL WATERS AROUND 30
KTS THROUGH AT LEAST THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS LOW MOVES AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SUNDAY WILL BE BETTER THAN TODAY FROM A
BOATING PERSPECTIVE...WITH WINDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 15 KT ON THE
BAY/RIVERS/SOUND...AND 20 KT ON THE OCEAN. HOWEVER...NW DIRECTION
SHOULD STILL KEEP CONDITIONS ON THE CHOPPHY SIDE...MAKING CONDITIONS
LESS THAN OPTIMAL. MONDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WITH WINDS MAINLY 10KT OR LESS.
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE SE COAST FROM TUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...ALLOWING FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF S/SW WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE MARINE AREA. DURING MOST OF THIS TIME FRAME...WINDS
ON THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...AND 10 TO
20 KT ON THE OCEAN.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
635>638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
650-652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ654-656-
658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/SAM
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...WRS
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 250735
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
335 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRY AND
COOL CONDITIONS. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH BECOMES SITUATED OFF THE EAST COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC LO PRES DVLPG INVOF CAPE COD ATTM...W/ TROUGH ALOFT PUSHING
OFF THE MDATLC CST. AREA OF CLDNS (CIGS ARND 5KFT) ASSOCIATED W/
THE TROUGH RMNS SLO TO MOVE AWAY FM/DISSIPATE OVR THE ERN SHR AND
ADJACENT CSTL WTRS. OTRW...SFC HI PRES INVOF GREAT LAKES/OH VLY
SPREADING SE INTO THE MDATLC AND SE CONUS STATES. 06Z/25 RUC
SHOWING CLDNS GENLY OFF THE CST BY 12Z/25. W/ THE STM CONTG TO
MOVE (SLOLY) AWAY FM NEW ENG...AND HI PRES BUILDING INTO THE RGN
FM THE NW...DRY/COOL WX XPCD TO START THE HOLIDAY WKND. NW WNDS
RMNG GUSTY (TO 25-40 MPH) THROUGHOUT THE DAY NR THE CST...AND
BREEZY INLAND. HI TEMPS FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER PATTERN DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A
TROUGH IN BOTH THE WEST AND EAST WITH RIDGING OVER THE CTRL
CONUS. UPPER CLOSED LOW WILL BE SLO TO TRACK ENE THROUGH SRN/ERN
NEW ENG TNGT THROUGH SUN. DEEP LYRD NWLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN
DRY/COOL CONDS THROUGH SUN NGT. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE
40S INALDN/L50S RIGHT AT THE CST TNGT. HI TEMPS SUN FM THE U60S TO
M70S. LO TEMPS SUN NGT FM THE 40S TO L50S.
MEANWHILE...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF STATES WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT NWD LATE SUN AND MON WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...UPR
LVL RIDGE WILL FINALLY PROGRESS EWD. AS A RESULT...A WARMING
TREND WILL COMMENCE MON. AS THE RIDGE PROGRESSES EWD...A
WARM/MOIST AIRMASS WILL INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY THEN EXPECTED TO FORM INTO A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. MCS WILL ROUND THE RIDGE...BUT WILL DIE OUT
BEFORE REACHING THE MDATLC. BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD MONDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE AGAIN GONE CLOSE TO A ECMWF/HPC(WPC) BLEND FOR THE MIDWEEK TIME
FRAME. HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME SHRAS/ISO T LATER TUESDAY AS WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA, WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF
FVX/RIC/WAL LINE.
THE FRONT SHUNTS NORTH OF THE AREA FOR THE MID TO LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK. MEANWHILE, MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS AS SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
RESULTANT BERMUDA HIGH/SUMMER-LIKE SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
TEMPS (AND HUMIDITY VALUES) FOR THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK. RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL PRIMARILY BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN, WITH LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY AND
INCREASINGLY MUGGY CONDITIONS BY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IMPRESSIVE UPR TROF FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR CURRENTLY CROSSING
AREA...AND WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW. THIS WILL PROVIDE
FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR WITH GENERALLY SKC. AT 06Z...STILL
BKN/OVC ALTO CU ACROSS THE DELMARVA...WHICH SHOULD CLEAR IN THE
NEXT 2-4 HOURS. BIGGEST ISSUE NEXT 24 HOURS IS WIND. MOST
TERMINALS SHOULD SEE GUSTS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE DURING THE DAY
TODAY...THEN DIMINISH AFTER 00Z SUN. WINDS SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY
LESS ON SUNDAY...ALTHO SOME GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE.
NEXT CHC FOR CEILING/VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE LATER MON-TUE AS A
WARM FRONT BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE.
&&
.MARINE...
DEEPENING STORM JUST EAST OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE LIFTING
NEWD THIS WEEKEND. WINDS AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN THE STG
SCA RANGE TODAY...WITH GUSTS ON THE BAY/NRN COASTAL WATERS AROUND 30
KTS THROUGH AT LEAST THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS LOW MOVES AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SUNDAY WILL BE BETTER THAN TODAY FROM A
BOATING PERSPECTIVE...WITH WINDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 15 KT ON THE
BAY/RIVERS/SOUND...AND 20 KT ON THE OCEAN. HOWEVER...NW DIRECTION
SHOULD STILL KEEP CONDITIONS ON THE CHOPPHY SIDE...MAKING CONDITIONS
LESS THAN OPTIMAL. MONDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WITH WINDS MAINLY 10KT OR LESS.
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE SE COAST FROM TUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...ALLOWING FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF S/SW WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE MARINE AREA. DURING MOST OF THIS TIME FRAME...WINDS
ON THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...AND 10 TO
20 KT ON THE OCEAN.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
635>638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630-631-650-
652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ654-656-
658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/SAM
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...WRS
000
FXUS61 KLWX 250730
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
330 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE WEEK...PROMOTING
A WARM UP.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 07Z...UPR LOW IS CENTERED OVER NJ WITH BACK EDGE OF MID-LEVEL
CLOUD SHIELD BREAKING UP OVER THE MD WRN SHORE. PRECIP HAS ENDED
ACROSS THE AREA. LOW UPSLOPE CLOUDS PERSIST OVER THE LAURELS OF PA
AND THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS OF MD/WV...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ERODING AS THE LLVL FLOW BACKS FROM N-NWLY TO NWLY...CHANGING THE
SOURCE REGION.
TODAY...A VORT LOBE CURRENTLY SEEN IN IR/WV OVER THE GEORGIAN BAY OF
LAKE HURON BRINGS SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER CNTRL MD AROUND MIDDAY.
OTW SUNNY WITH DOWNSLOPING NWLY FLOW GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH. MAX
TEMPS UPR 60S TO 70F AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
NWLY GUSTS EASE WITH ONLY SHELTERED VALLEYS DECOUPLING. MIN TEMPS
LOW 40S INLAND WITH SOME UPR 30S IN THE SHEN VLY AND AROUND 50F
FOR URBAN/NEAR SHORE.
COOL AGAIN IN THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS...WENT FOR MID 30S WITH 925
AND 850MB TEMPS PROGGED A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER THAN NOW. DESPITE
EXPECTED MIXING WILL GO WITH A FROST ADVISORY FOR WRN PORTIONS OF
ALLEGANY...MINERAL...AND GRANT COUNTIES (DIVISION IS THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT) AS WELL AS HIGHLAND/ PENDLETON. TEMPS TEND TO DROP OFF
RAPIDLY IN CLEAR CONDITIONS AS EXPECTED TONIGHT...SO WENT FOR
MIDNIGHT TO 8 AM FOR THE HEADLINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE XTND PORTION OF THE FCST LOOKS PRETTY CUT AND DRIED. HIGH PRES
OVR THE AREA SUNDAY SHOULD BRING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND CONTINUED
COOLER THAN NRML TEMPS. ON MON HGH TEMPS SHOULD DRAW CLOSER TO
NRML - U70S. AFTR THAT DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB AS HIGH PRES
MOVES OFFSHORE AND A TROF DVLPS E OF THE ROCKIES RIGHT THROUGH
FRI. HIGHS IN THE U80S...PSBLY A90 BY WEEK`S END. LOWS IN THE 60S.
PCPN CHCS LOOK PRETTY SCANT IN THE COMING WK. PERHAPS AFTN/EVE
ISOLD TSTMS OVR THE MTNS FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NWLY FLOW CONTINUES TO GUST AROUND 20 KT UNTIL SUNRISE...WITH 25 TO
30 KT THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. GUSTS EASE THIS EVENING WITH
AROUND 10 KT OVERNIGHT. VFR WITH ANY CIGS BREAKING THIS MORNING.
IN THE XTND VFR CONDS XPCTD THRU MIDWEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
NWLY FLOW 20 TO 25 KT OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO 30 KT DURING
DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH AN SCA. WINDS EASE THIS EVENING WITH MIDDLE/UPR
TIDAL POTOMAC DROPPING OFF THE SCA AT 8PM. REST OF WATERS SEE 20 KT
GUSTS THROUGH TONIGHT.
IN THE XTND...IT IS LKLY THAT SOME GUSTS REACHING SCA LVL WL OCCUR
ON THE BAY/LWR PTMC SUN AFTN. THEN NO PROBS XPCTD ON THE WATERS
MEM DAY OR THRU MIDWEEK
&&
.COASTAL FLOOD...
GUSTY NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WATER OUT OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY...WITH WATER LEVELS -1 TO -1.5 MLLW AT LOW TIDE THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ501.
VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ503.
WV...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ501-503-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ530-531-538-
539.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
540>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
536.
&&
$$
PRODUCTS...BAJ/WOODY!
000
FXUS61 KPHI 250628
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
228 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG AN OFFSHORE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
PROGRESS NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND OVER THE WEEKEND, REACHING THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND FROM AROUND
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BY MID WEEK, A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR REGION, FOLLOWED BY A BERMUDA TYPE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING TO OUR EAST FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO OUR NE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NEWD THRU TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE W.
AS A RESULT, WE WILL KEEP VERY STRONG NWLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. WE
HAVE ISSUED A SPS FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF CARBON AND MONROE COUNTIES. MPO CAME IN WITH A GUST
TO 43 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, AND WINDS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING
VERY SLOWLY SINCE. WITH THE SLOW MOVG LOW TO THE NE IT WILL KEEP AN
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. PRECIP CHCS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECREASE FROM SW TO NE.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE CRISP WITH MOST LOCATIONS
INTO THE 40S AND SOME EVEN INTO THE 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
ON SAT, THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW PROGRESSION
AWAY FROM THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL BE PLENTIFUL IN THE MRNG, AND
DECREASE THRU THE DAY. PRECIP CHCS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE NE TO
ALMOST NON-EXISTENT ACRS THE SW. TEMPS WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE
LOW TO MID 60S WHICH IS GENLY 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NRML.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TO START THE LONG TERM, A MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL BE MOVING AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST, AND WE EXPECT ANY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OVER OUR
NORTHEAST ZONES TO BE QUICKLY DIMINISHING BY SATURDAY EVENING. OF
NOTE, A PRONOUNCED CYCLONIC FLOW WILL STILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, AND THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE. WITH THIS IN
MIND, WE GENERALLY TOOK A BLEND OF HIGHER MAV GUIDANCE WITH
CONTINUITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES, WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S FOR OUR NORTHWEST
ZONES TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S IN THE LOWER DELAWARE VALLEY AND
DELMARVA REGION.
GOING INTO SUNDAY, THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX
ACROSS THE REGION, BUT ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IS IN STORE WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED, BUT
WITH A FEW SHORTWAVES/VORT MAXES PASSING OVERHEAD IN THE STILL
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, SOME CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH THE SUNSHINE,
ESPECIALLY NORTH. GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES BUILDING
EAST AND OVER OUR AREA, WITH THE GRADIENT RELAXING. WITH LIGHTER
WINDS AND FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES, WE ANTICIPATE ANOTHER COOL NIGHT FOR
OUR NORTHWEST ZONES, WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AGAIN DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY, AS THE
AIRMASS BEGINS TO MODERATE, WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO LATE MAY NORMALS. FROM THERE GOING INTO
THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK, MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADILY
CLIMBING. OVERALL, TUESDAY SHOULD FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE FORECAST AREA; ALTHOUGH, A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING OUR
REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. WE MAINTAIN THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS GOING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION, AND WE ALSO KEPT SOME
POPS IN PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY. FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK THEN, A
BERMUDA HIGH BUILDING OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SPREAD ITS INFLUENCE
WESTWARD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES, WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
ALTHOUGH A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR CLOUDS WERE MOVING AROUND THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY EVENING, WE EXPECT SKIES TO BE VFR MOST OR ALL OF THE TIME
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES. WE WILL START OUT
WITH LOW VFR CEILINGS THAT MAY ERODE TOWARD DAYBREAK AND THEN RE-
DEVELOP DURING THE MID-MORNING HOURS. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ALSO
WAS MOVING AROUND THE AREA LATE FRIDAY EVENING, BUT WE EXPECT
VSBYS IN ANY SHOWERS THAT HIT A TAF SITE TO REMAIN VFR.
REGARDING THE WIND, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING SOUTH OF CAPE COD
LATE FRIDAY EVENING ESTABLISHED A PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THE RESULTANT NWLY FLOW WILL
KEEP WINDS GUSTING IN THE 20S AND 30S KT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. POSSIBLE SUB-VFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN SHWRS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A WARM FRONT
LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
GALE WARNINGS WERE RAISED WITH THE AFTN PKG ISSUANCE. THEY ARE IN
EFFECT OVER THE SRN WATERS AND DEL BAY AND WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT
10Z FOR THE NRN WATERS. STRONG NWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND
STRENGTHEN FROM S TO N AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W AND
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALG THE CDFNT THAT PASSED THRU THIS MRNG.
OUTLOOK...
A GALE WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE
BAY INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS OVER THE
WATERS. SEAS WILL ALSO BE ELEVATED IN THE 5 TO 6 FOOT RANGE FOR THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 3 TO 5 FEET IN
DELAWARE BAY. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH HEADING
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY, BUT WE WILL LIKELY NEED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINE FOR A TIME ON OUR WATERS FROM THE
EARLY MORNING ON SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD THEN, FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WE ANTICIPATE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON OUR WATERS AS HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION, FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE STRONG NW WINDS DOWN DEL BAY HAVE CREATED NEGATIVE WATER LEVEL
DEPARTURES OF -1.5 TO 2.5 FT. WITH THE LOW TIDE APPROACHING...WE
HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A LOW WATER ADVISORY FOR EARLY THIS MORNING.
AN SPS WILL BE ISSUED SOON...IF IT APPEARS THE THE DEL RIVER WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THE LOW WATER ALSO.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-452>455.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ450-451.
LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...KLINE/NIERENBERG
MARINE...KLINE/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 250611
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
211 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THIS
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS. A WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION THIS
EVENING. TEMPS AT 8 PM EST ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
AND ON TRACK TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S OVERNIGHT UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ONE AREA OF EXCEPTION WILL BE THE MD/VA
EASTERN SHORE WHERE A STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT
OVERNIGHT...PREVENTING TEMPS FROM FALLING BELOW THE MID 40S FOR
INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND NO LOWER THAN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
NW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EVENING
FROM WEST TO EAST. NEAR THE COAST...WINDS WILL STAY ELEVATED AND
GUSTY OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT...WHICH IS THEN QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A 100-120 KT JET
STREAK. NW WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH WILL BE COMMON ALONG COASTAL
AREAS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER PATTERN DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A
TROUGH IN BOTH THE WEST AND EAST WITH RIDGING OVER THE CTRL
CONUS. UPPER CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
SAT...SLOWLY LIFTING UP THE NE COAST SAT-SUN DUE TO BLOCKING OVER
THE WRN ATLANTIC. CONFLUENCE ALOFT WILL USHER IN COOL SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RESULTANT DEEP LAYER NWLY FLOW WILL
RESULT IN DRY...BUT COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL AS LOW AS 2 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL
THIS WEEKEND...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY UPPER 60S/LOW 70S SAT AND LOW
70S SUN (-1 STD DEV). TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S SAT
NIGHT AND UPPER 40S/LOW 50S SUN NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NRN GULF WILL BEGIN
TO LIFT NWD LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LOCATING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
MONDAY MORNING...EXTENDING NWWD INTO THE PLAINS. UPPER RIDGE WILL
FINALLY PROGRESS EWD MON AS THE UPPER LOW OVER SE CANADA LIFTS. AS
A RESULT...A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE MON. AS THE RIDGE
PROGRESSES EWD...A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS WILL INTERACT WITH THE
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDWEST
INTO THE OH VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY THEN EXPECTED TO
FORM INTO A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. MCS WILL ROUND THE
RIDGE...BUT WILL DIE OUT BEFORE REACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC.
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD MONDAY NIGHT...WITH BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE AGAIN GONE CLOSE TO A ECMWF/HPC(WPC) BLEND FOR THE MIDWEEK TIME
FRAME. HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME SHRAS/ISO T LATER TUESDAY AS WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA, WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF
FVX/RIC/WAL LINE.
THE FRONT SHUNTS NORTH OF THE AREA FOR THE MID TO LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK. MEANWHILE, MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS AS SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
RESULTANT BERMUDA HIGH/SUMMER-LIKE SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
TEMPS (AND HUMIDITY VALUES) FOR THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK. RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL PRIMARILY BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN, WITH LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY AND
INCREASINGLY MUGGY CONDITIONS BY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IMPRESSIVE UPR TROF FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR CURRENTLY CROSSING
AREA...AND WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW. THIS WILL PROVIDE
FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR WITH GENERALLY SKC. AT 06Z...STILL
BKN/OVC ALTO CU ACROSS THE DELMARVA...WHICH SHOULD CLEAR IN THE
NEXT 2-4 HOURS. BIGGEST ISSUE NEXT 24 HOURS IS WIND. MOST
TERMINALS SHOULD SEE GUSTS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE DURING THE DAY
TODAY...THEN DIMINISH AFTER 00Z SUN. WINDS SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY
LESS ON SUNDAY...ALTHO SOME GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE.
NEXT CHC FOR CEILING/VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE LATER MON-TUE AS A
WARM FRONT BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE.
&&
.MARINE...
GALE WARNING CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN BAY ZONES AND
FAR NORTHERN COASTAL ZONES. WIND GUSTS ARE VERY CLOSE TO GALE IN
THESE AREAS ATTM...AND WITH STRONGEST SURGE OF CAA JUST NOT
ARRIVING...EXPECT PREDOMINATE GUSTS TO GALE FOR A FEW HRS BETWEEN
00Z/8P AND 10Z/6A. HAVE RUN HEADLINE THROUGH 15Z/11A FOR NOW...WITH
THE IDEA THAT OVERNIGHT CREW CAN KEEP AN EYE ON OBS AND EXPIRE
EARLY AS NEEDED.
SEAS WILL RUN ON THE ORDER OF 5-8 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS...WAVES
~2 FT ON THE SOUND...2-3 FT ON THE RIVERS...3-5 IN THE LOWER CHES
BAY. PERIOD OF SCA FLAGS WILL BE RE-ISSUED AS SOON AS GALES ARE
EXPIRED AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF NJ/SRN NEW ENG COAST SLOWLY
LIFTS TO THE NE INTO SUN...RESULTING IN ONLY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
(SCA PER WAVEWATCH POTENTIALLY TO LINGER OVR THE NRN OCN WTRS INTO
LATE SAT). SCA FLAGS DROP OFF OVER ALL BUT COASTAL AREAS SAT
NIGHT...EXTENDING INTO EARLY SUNDAY OVER NRN COASTAL ZONES.
FAR MORE FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THIS PD WITH W WINDS AOB 15
KT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
635>638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ632-634-
654-656-658.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630-631-650-
652.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...BMD/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...MAM/WRS
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250456
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1256 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ARE ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE
FOR THE POST MIDNGT UPDATE OTHER THAN TO MASSAGE HOURLY TRENDS.
SFC WIND HAS WEAKENED QUICKLY AS THE AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH PRES HAS
BUILD ACRS CNTRL AND ERN OHIO...A BIT E OF LAST NGTS MDL-PROGS.
SBSDNC AND DRY ADVCTN HAS THUS ERODED STRATOCU E OF A LINE FM
CLARION TO MORGANTOWN AS OF MIDNGT. RESULTING TEMPS ALREADY ARE IN
THE 30S FOR THE MOST PART...AND COLD ADVCTN HAS PLUNGED OAKLAND MD
TO 32 F DESPITE BEING OVRCAST.
AS UPR/MID LVL TROF AXIS HAS DUG TWD THE COAST...COLD NW FLOW OVR
THE UPR OH REGION...WITH HIGH PRES ON THE SFC...WL MAINTAIN SUB-
AVERAGE TEMPS TDA...WHICH WERE FORECAST 10 TO 15 UNDR USING A
BLEND OF ALREADY-CLOSE GUIDANCE.
EXPECT SOME HIGH-BASED STRATOCU TO FORM THIS AFTN AS PROGGED
CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD BE EXCEEDED...BUT ONLY SCT COVERAGE IS
ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE FORECAST TEMP/DP SPREADS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRES WL CONT TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. TEMPS
WERE KEPT 5 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES SUNDAY...BUT MODERATED
CLOSER TO NORMAL BY MONDAY AS WARM ADVCTN RESUMES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MDLS DIFFER IN DEPICTIONS OF A RESUMPTION OF A WARM ADVCTN REGIME
FOR MONDAY NGT AND TUESDAY WITH NAM BEING THE MORE AGRESSIVE IN
TERMS OF PCPN POTENTIAL. AS CHC POPS WERE ALREADY INCLUDED WITH
THE CROSSING OF THE WARM FRONT...HAVE DECIDED TO PERSIST DESPITE
GFS AND ECMWF DRY SOLNS. HOWEVER...HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING BASED ON
THESE LATEST DETERMINISTIC TRENDS AND HAVE ALSO DIMINISHED POPS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS PER EXPECTATIONS OF WARM SECTOR
DOMINATION UNDR AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE.
TEMP RECOVERY WL BE DRAMATIC...WITH READINGS CONSERVATIVELY PROGGED
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR STRATOCU...GENLY E OF I 79...WL GRDLY DCRS IN COVG OVRNGT.
MCLR SKIES AND NW WNDS GUSTING TO 20-25KT EXPD FOR SAT.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS EXPD WITH HIGH PRES IN CTRL THRU MON. SHWR/TSTM CHCS
RETURN WITH A WRMFNT MON NGT INTO WED.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ001.
OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ020-021-029-
031-073-075.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ007>009-
013>016-022-023-074-076.
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ001>004-012-
021-022.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ023-041.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KPHI 250146
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
946 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG AN OFFSHORE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
PROGRESS NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND OVER THE WEEKEND, REACHING THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND FROM AROUND
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BY MID WEEK, A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR REGION, FOLLOWED BY A BERMUDA TYPE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING TO OUR EAST FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A CDFNT CROSSED THE REGION THIS MORNING AND LINGERING SHWRS
CONTINUE BEHIND IT AS THE H5 TROF REMAINS TO THE W. THEN, AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALG THE FRONT TO OUR NE AND
MOVE NEWD THRU SAT. AT THE SAME TIME, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE W.
AS A RESULT, WE WILL KEEP VERY STRONG NWLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. WE
HAVE ISSUED A SPS FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF CARBON AND MONROE COUNTIES. MPO CAME IN WITH A GUST
TO 43 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, AND WINDS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING
VERY SLOWLY SINCE. WITH THE SLOW MOVG LOW TO THE NE IT WILL KEEP AN
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. PRECIP CHCS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECREASE FROM SW TO NE.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE CRISP WITH MOST LOCATIONS
INTO THE 40S AND SOME EVEN INTO THE 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ON SAT, THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW PROGRESSION
AWAY FROM THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL BE PLENTIFUL IN THE MRNG, AND
DECREASE THRU THE DAY. PRECIP CHCS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE NE TO
ALMOST NON-EXISTENT ACRS THE SW. TEMPS WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE
LOW TO MID 60S WHICH IS GENLY 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NRML.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TO START THE LONG TERM, A MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL BE MOVING AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST, AND WE EXPECT ANY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OVER OUR
NORTHEAST ZONES TO BE QUICKLY DIMINISHING BY SATURDAY EVENING. OF
NOTE, A PRONOUNCED CYCLONIC FLOW WILL STILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, AND THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE. WITH THIS IN
MIND, WE GENERALLY TOOK A BLEND OF HIGHER MAV GUIDANCE WITH
CONTINUITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES, WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S FOR OUR NORTHWEST
ZONES TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S IN THE LOWER DELAWARE VALLEY AND
DELMARVA REGION.
GOING INTO SUNDAY, THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX
ACROSS THE REGION, BUT ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IS IN STORE WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED, BUT
WITH A FEW SHORTWAVES/VORT MAXES PASSING OVERHEAD IN THE STILL
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, SOME CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH THE SUNSHINE,
ESPECIALLY NORTH. GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES BUILDING
EAST AND OVER OUR AREA, WITH THE GRADIENT RELAXING. WITH LIGHTER
WINDS AND FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES, WE ANTICIPATE ANOTHER COOL NIGHT FOR
OUR NORTHWEST ZONES, WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AGAIN DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY, AS THE
AIRMASS BEGINS TO MODERATE, WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO LATE MAY NORMALS. FROM THERE GOING INTO
THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK, MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADILY
CLIMBING. OVERALL, TUESDAY SHOULD FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE FORECAST AREA; ALTHOUGH, A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING OUR
REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. WE MAINTAIN THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS GOING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION, AND WE ALSO KEPT SOME
POPS IN PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY. FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK THEN, A
BERMUDA HIGH BUILDING OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SPREAD ITS INFLUENCE
WESTWARD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES, WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
ALTHOUGH A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR CLOUDS WERE MOVING AROUND THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY EVENING, WE EXPECT SKIES TO BE VFR MOST OR ALL OF THE TIME
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES. WE WILL START OUT
WITH LOW VFR CEILINGS THAT MAY ERODE TOWARD DAYBREAK AND THEN RE-
DEVELOP DURING THE MID-MORNING HOURS. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ALSO
WAS MOVING AROUND THE AREA LATE FRIDAY EVENING, BUT WE EXPECT
VSBYS IN ANY SHOWERS THAT HIT A TAF SITE TO REMAIN VFR.
REGARDING THE WIND, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING SOUTH OF CAPE COD
LATE FRIDAY EVENING ESTABLISHED A PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THE RESULTANT NWLY FLOW WILL
KEEP WINDS GUSTING IN THE 20S AND 30S KT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. POSSIBLE SUB-VFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN SHWRS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A WARM FRONT
LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
GALE WARNINGS WERE RAISED WITH THE AFTN PKG ISSUANCE. THEY ARE IN
EFFECT OVER THE SRN WATERS AND DEL BAY AND WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT
10Z FOR THE NRN WATERS. STRONG NWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND
STRENGTHEN FROM S TO N AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W AND
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALG THE CDFNT THAT PASSED THRU THIS MRNG.
OUTLOOK...
A GALE WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE
BAY INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS OVER THE
WATERS. SEAS WILL ALSO BE ELEVATED IN THE 5 TO 6 FOOT RANGE FOR THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 3 TO 5 FEET IN
DELAWARE BAY. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH HEADING
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY, BUT WE WILL LIKELY NEED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINE FOR A TIME ON OUR WATERS FROM THE
EARLY MORNING ON SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD THEN, FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WE ANTICIPATE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON OUR WATERS AS HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION, FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-452>455.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450-
451.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/DELISI
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...KLINE/NIERENBERG/DELISI
MARINE...KLINE/NIERENBERG/DELISI
RIP CURRENTS...DELISI
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250137 AAB
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
937 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WINDS ARE WEAKENING QUICKLY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN A BIT FASTER
THAN MODELS DEPICTED. SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR CONTINUE TO ERODE THE
CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST. STILL DIFFICULT TO TIME EXACTLY
WILL USE LATEST RAP MODEL RUN AS GUIDANCE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD
OVERHEAD AT THE SURFACE. COLD NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO KEEP
CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS RIGHT IN LINE WITH THE LATEST RUC FORECAST.
WITH CLOUD COVER STILL IN PLACE...CONTINUED A DOWNWARD TREND IN
THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH PIT LIKELY TO BE
VERY CLOSE TO BREAKING IT`S LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES RECORD FROM
1877.
THE MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT CLOUDS WILL
EVENTUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE ENTIRE REGION...LASTING LONGEST IN
THE RIDGES. HOW FAST THE CLOUDS DIMINISH WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN
HOW QUICKLY TEMPERATURES DROP OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SINCE
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY LOWER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...CLEARING
SKIES SHOULD ALLOW LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30`S TO BE REALIZED
RELATIVELY QUICKLY. FOR NOW...CONTINUED THE FROST/FREEZE AS
IS...ALTHOUGH SOME COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A FREEZE IF
SKIES CLEAR SOONER AND WINDS DECOUPLE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SATURDAY BRINGING A CLEAR DAY
BUT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT 5 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
SUNDAY...BUT MODERATED CLOSER TO NORMAL BY MONDAY. AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT COULD BRING THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY BUT FOR NOW...LEFT LOW
END POPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE DISTRICT TUESDAY WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THE WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S THROUGH
FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERAL STRATO-CU REMAINS IN PLACE EXCEPT AT ZANESVILLE WHERE SKIES
HAVE CLEARED. CLOUD DECK IS THIN AND HAS A DIURNAL LOOK ON SAT
PIX. BREAKS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND WITH DEEP DRYING MOVING INTO
REGION OVERNIGHT STILL EXPECT STRATO-CU TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
TOWARD OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS ALREADY BEGINNING TO WEAKEN
AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS EAST FROM GREAT LAKES. 18Z SOUNDINGS SHOW
DECOUPLING STILL OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT WITH A NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WIND UNDER 6 KTS. BY MID MORNING SATURDAY SUNSHINE WILL MIX DOWN
NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KTS EXPECTED. ONLY SCT VFR CU
EXPECTED.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN GENERAL VFR THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ020-021-
029-031-073-075.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
013>016-022-023-074-076.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ001>004-
012-021-022.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ023-041.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KLWX 250056
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
856 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL PLENTY OF CAA ONGOING...BTWN LOPRES OVER CAPE COD AND
HIPRES OVER THE GRTLKS. BACK EDGE OF SOLID STCU DECK STRETCHES FM
FDK- DCA-EZF...WITH ADDTL CLDCVR ACRS THE PTMC HIGHLANDS AND THE
NRN SHEN VLY. XPCT SKIES TO CLR OVNGT PER 18Z GDNC.
WHILE GUSTS WILL DIMINISH SOME THIS EVENING...WINDS WILL NOT
DECOUPLE GIVEN TIGHT GRADIENT UNDER A COLD ADVECTION REGIME. THIS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING LIKE A ROCK BUT THE AIR MASS
CHANGE ITSELF WILL BRING A CHILLY NIGHT. WITH WIND DO NOT EXPECT
FROST ISSUES...BUT MINIMA IN THE LOWER 30S OVER THE HIGHLANDS
SUPPORTS THE FREEZE WARNING. LTST GDNC SUPPORT GOING MIN-T FCST.
SUNSHINE WILL MAKE A RETURN ON SATURDAY BUT IT WILL BE ANOTHER
WINDY DAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS MAY BE SIMILAR TO
FRIDAY. SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER BELOW NORMAL DAY FOR TEMPERATURES
AS WELL...HOWEVER WITH SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPING FLOW THIS SHOULD
HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND...MOVING OFF THE COAST ON MEMORIAL DAY MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...RETURNING CLOSE TO
CLIMO MEMORIAL DAY. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MUCH OF THE TIME BUT
IN A WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THERE MAY BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS FROM
TIME TO TIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ON TUESDAY...AND MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING DURING THE MID TO
LATE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH MAXIMA LIKELY WELL IN THE 80S WEDNESDAY AND
BEYOND. UNDER THE RIDGE...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK VERY LOW
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR FLGT CONDS ACRS THE TERMINALS. STCU W/ BASES 050-060 WL DSPT
OVNGT. WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT NW WNDS G25-30 KT WL
RETURN AOB MIDDAY SAT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE REST OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND
FOR NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
&&
.MARINE...
WNDS HV DIMINISHED UNDER GLW CRITERIA...BUT NOT BY MUCH. WL STILL
HV FREQUENT G25KT TNGT...W/ OCNL G30KT. SCA IN EFFECT...WHICH
CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. COULD HAVE A PERIOD OF NEAR GALES
ON SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE STILL TOO LOW TO RAISE ATTM.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LESS WIND SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ501.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ503.
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ501-503-
505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
537>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ535-536.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 250034
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
834 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THIS
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS. A WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION THIS
EVENING. TEMPS AT 8 PM EST ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
AND ON TRACK TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S OVERNIGHT UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ONE AREA OF EXCEPTION WILL BE THE MD/VA
EASTERN SHORE WHERE A STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT
OVERNIGHT...PREVENTING TEMPS FROM FALLING BELOW THE MID 40S FOR
INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND NO LOWER THAN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
NW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EVENING
FROM WEST TO EAST. NEAR THE COAST...WINDS WILL STAY ELEVATED AND
GUSTY OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT...WHICH IS THEN QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A 100-120 KT JET
STREAK. NW WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH WILL BE COMMON ALONG COASTAL
AREAS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER PATTERN DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A
TROUGH IN BOTH THE WEST AND EAST WITH RIDGING OVER THE CTRL
CONUS. UPPER CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
SAT...SLOWLY LIFTING UP THE NE COAST SAT-SUN DUE TO BLOCKING OVER
THE WRN ATLANTIC. CONFLUENCE ALOFT WILL USHER IN COOL SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RESULTANT DEEP LAYER NWLY FLOW WILL
RESULT IN DRY...BUT COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL AS LOW AS 2 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL
THIS WEEKEND...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY UPPER 60S/LOW 70S SAT AND LOW
70S SUN (-1 STD DEV). TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S SAT
NIGHT AND UPPER 40S/LOW 50S SUN NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NRN GULF WILL BEGIN
TO LIFT NWD LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LOCATING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
MONDAY MORNING...EXTENDING NWWD INTO THE PLAINS. UPPER RIDGE WILL
FINALLY PROGRESS EWD MON AS THE UPPER LOW OVER SE CANADA LIFTS. AS
A RESULT...A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE MON. AS THE RIDGE
PROGRESSES EWD...A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS WILL INTERACT WITH THE
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDWEST
INTO THE OH VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY THEN EXPECTED TO
FORM INTO A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. MCS WILL ROUND THE
RIDGE...BUT WILL DIE OUT BEFORE REACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC.
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD MONDAY NIGHT...WITH BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE AGAIN GONE CLOSE TO A ECMWF/HPC(WPC) BLEND FOR THE MIDWEEK TIME
FRAME. HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME SHRAS/ISO T LATER TUESDAY AS WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA, WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF
FVX/RIC/WAL LINE.
THE FRONT SHUNTS NORTH OF THE AREA FOR THE MID TO LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK. MEANWHILE, MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS AS SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
RESULTANT BERMUDA HIGH/SUMMER-LIKE SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
TEMPS (AND HUMIDITY VALUES) FOR THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK. RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL PRIMARILY BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN, WITH LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY AND
INCREASINGLY MUGGY CONDITIONS BY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
POTENT MID/UPR LVL TROUGH PIVOTS OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. MID-LEVEL STRATUS (4-5K FT) WILL REMAIN STUBBORN ACROSS
THE VA NORTHERN NECK ONTO THE EASTERN SHORE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...IF NOT MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BEFORE FINALLY SCOURING
OUT. OTW...CLEAR/VFR CIGS EXPECTED AT REMAINING TAF SITES TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISHING THRU 02Z...ENDING UP AOB 10 KT
OVERNIGHT FOR MOST TAF SITES.
VFR/DRY CONDITIONS ON SAT...BUT ALL SITES CAN EXPECT GUSTY NW
FLOW...TO 20-25 KT (25-30 KT AT KSBY). GENLY SKC WITH LIGHTER WINDS
SAT NIGHT-SUN.
GENLY DRY/VFR THROUGH MONDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE LATER MON-
TUE AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA. THIS WOULD BE NEXT
CHANCE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
GALE WARNING CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN BAY ZONES AND
FAR NORTHERN COASTAL ZONES. WIND GUSTS ARE VERY CLOSE TO GALE IN
THESE AREAS ATTM...AND WITH STRONGEST SURGE OF CAA JUST NOT
ARRIVING...EXPECT PREDOMINATE GUSTS TO GALE FOR A FEW HRS BETWEEN
00Z/8P AND 10Z/6A. HAVE RUN HEADLINE THROUGH 15Z/11A FOR NOW...WITH
THE IDEA THAT OVERNIGHT CREW CAN KEEP AN EYE ON OBS AND EXPIRE
EARLY AS NEEDED.
SEAS WILL RUN ON THE ORDER OF 5-8 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS...WAVES
~2 FT ON THE SOUND...2-3 FT ON THE RIVERS...3-5 IN THE LOWER CHES
BAY. PERIOD OF SCA FLAGS WILL BE RE-ISSUED AS SOON AS GALES ARE
EXPIRED AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF NJ/SRN NEW ENG COAST SLOWLY
LIFTS TO THE NE INTO SUN...RESULTING IN ONLY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
(SCA PER WAVEWATCH POTENTIALLY TO LINGER OVR THE NRN OCN WTRS INTO
LATE SAT). SCA FLAGS DROP OFF OVER ALL BUT COASTAL AREAS SAT
NIGHT...EXTENDING INTO EARLY SUNDAY OVER NRN COASTAL ZONES.
FAR MORE FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THIS PD WITH W WINDS AOB 15
KT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ633-
635>638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ632-634-654-656-658.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ630-631-650-652.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...MAM
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 242348
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
748 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP UPPER TROUGH (500MB HEIGHTS
-2 STD DEV) DIGGING OVER THE ERN CONUS. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT
HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS WILL CLEAR THE COAST THE NEXT
FEW HOURS (BEFORE 5PM EDT). UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL LOCATE ALONG
THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING...EFFECTIVELY BRINGING AN END TO THE
PRECIP. NW WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH (STRONGER
NEAR THE COAST) WILL SUBSIDE LATE AFTERNOON AS SKIES CLEAR WEST TO
EAST. COLD TONIGHT AS LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPS FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE LOW/MID
40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER PATTERN DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A
TROUGH IN BOTH THE WEST AND EAST WITH RIDGING OVER THE CNTRL
CONUS. UPPER CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
SAT...SLOWLY LIFTING UP THE NE COAST SAT-SUN DUE TO BLOCKING OVER
THE WRN ATLANTIC. CONFLUENCE ALOFT WILL USHER IN COOL SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RESULTANT DEEP LAYER NWLY FLOW WILL
RESULT IN DRY...BUT COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL AS LOW AS 2 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL
THIS WEEKEND...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY UPPER 60S/LOW 70S SAT AND LOW
70S SUN (-1 STD DEV). TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S SAT
NIGHT AND UPPER 40S/LOW 50S SUN NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NRN GULF WILL BEGIN
TO LIFT NWD LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LOCATING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
MONDAY MORNING...EXTENDING NWWD INTO THE PLAINS. UPPER RIDGE WILL
FINALLY PROGRESS EWD MON AS THE UPPER LOW OVER SE CANADA LIFTS. AS
A RESULT...A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE MON. AS THE RIDGE
PROGRESSES EWD...A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS WILL INTERACT WITH THE
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDWEST
INTO THE OH VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY THEN EXPECTED TO
FORM INTO A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. MCS WILL ROUND THE
RIDGE...BUT WILL DIE OUT BEFORE REACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC.
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD MONDAY NIGHT...WITH BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HV AGAIN GONE CLOSE TO A ECMWF/HPC(WPC) BLEND FOR THE MIDWEEK TIME
FRAME. HV ALLOWED FOR SOME SHRAS/ISO T LATER TUESDAY AS WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA, WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF
FVX/RIC/WAL LINE.
THE FRONT SHUNTS NORTH OF THE AREA FOR THE MID TO LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK. MEANWHILE, MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS AS SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
RESULTANT BERMUDA HIGH/"SUMMERLIKE" SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
TEMPS (AND HUMIDITY VALUES) FOR THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL PRIMARILY BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN, WITH LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY AND
INCREASINGLY MUGGY CONDITIONS BY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
POTENT MID/UPR LVL TROUGH PIVOTS OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. MID-LEVEL STRATUS (4-5K FT) WILL REMAIN STUBBORN ACROSS
THE VA NORTHERN NECK ONTO THE EASTERN SHORE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...IF NOT MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BEFORE FINALLY SCOURING
OUT. OTW...CLEAR/VFR CIGS EXPECTED AT REMAINING TAF SITES TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISHING THRU 02Z...ENDING UP AOB 10 KT
OVERNIGHT FOR MOST TAF SITES.
VFR/DRY CONDITIONS ON SAT...BUT ALL SITES CAN EXPECT GUSTY NW
FLOW...TO 20-25 KT (25-30 KT AT KSBY). GENLY SKC WITH LIGHTER WINDS
SAT NIGHT-SUN.
GENLY DRY/VFR THROUGH MONDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE LATER MON-
TUE AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA. THIS WOULD BE NEXT
CHANCE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
GALE WARNING CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN BAY ZONES AND
FAR NORTHERN COASTAL ZONES. WIND GUSTS ARE VERY CLOSE TO GALE IN
THESE AREAS ATTM...AND WITH STRONGEST SURGE OF CAA JUST NOT
ARRIVING...EXPECT PREDOMINATE GUSTS TO GALE FOR A FEW HRS BETWEEN
00Z/8P AND 10Z/6A. HAVE RUN HEADLINE THROUGH 15Z/11A FOR NOW...WITH
THE IDEA THAT OVERNIGHT CREW CAN KEEP AN EYE ON OBS AND EXPIRE
EARLY AS NEEDED.
SEAS WILL RUN ON THE ORDER OF 5-8 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS...WAVES
~2 FT ON THE SOUND...2-3 FT ON THE RIVERS...3-5 IN THE LOWER CHES
BAY. PERIOD OF SCA FLAGS WILL BE RE-ISSUED AS SOON AS GALES ARE
EXPIRED AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF NJ/SRN NEW ENG COAST SLOWLY
LIFTS TO THE NE INTO SUN...RESULTING IN ONLY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
(SCA PER WAVEWATCH POTENTIALLY TO LINGER OVR THE NRN OCN WTRS INTO
LATE SAT). SCA FLAGS DROP OFF OVER ALL BUT COASTAL AREAS SAT
NIGHT...EXTENDING INTO ERY SUNDAY OVER NRN COASTAL ZONES.
FAR MORE FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THIS PD WITH W WINDS AOB 15
KT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ633-
635>638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ632-634-654-656-658.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ630-631-650-652.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...JDM/LKB
MARINE...JDM/MAM
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 242326
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
726 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS OVERNIGHT...JUST WEAKENED THEM A BIT FASTER.
TRIED TO TIME THE DECAYING OF CLOUD DECK...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.
WESTERN EDGE OF CLOUDS ARE ERODING QUICKLY...BUT WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT...TIMING IS DIFFICULT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD
OVERHEAD AT THE SURFACE. COLD NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO KEEP
CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS RIGHT IN LINE WITH THE LATEST RUC FORECAST.
WITH CLOUD COVER STILL IN PLACE...CONTINUED A DOWNWARD TREND IN
THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH PIT LIKELY TO BE
VERY CLOSE TO BREAKING IT`S LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES RECORD FROM
1877.
THE MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT CLOUDS WILL
EVENTUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE ENTIRE REGION...LASTING LONGEST IN
THE RIDGES. HOW FAST THE CLOUDS DIMINISH WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN
HOW QUICKLY TEMPERATURES DROP OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SINCE
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY LOWER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...CLEARING
SKIES SHOULD ALLOW LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30`S TO BE REALIZED
RELATIVELY QUICKLY. FOR NOW...CONTINUED THE FROST/FREEZE AS
IS...ALTHOUGH SOME COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A FREEZE IF
SKIES CLEAR SOONER AND WINDS DECOUPLE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SATURDAY BRINGING A CLEAR DAY
BUT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT 5 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
SUNDAY...BUT MODERATED CLOSER TO NORMAL BY MONDAY. AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT COULD BRING THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY BUT FOR NOW...LEFT LOW
END POPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE DISTRICT TUESDAY WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THE WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S THROUGH
FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERAL STRATO-CU REMAINS IN PLACE EXCEPT AT ZANESVILLE WHERE SKIES
HAVE CLEARED. CLOUD DECK IS THIN AND HAS A DIURNAL LOOK ON SAT
PIX. BREAKS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND WITH DEEP DRYING MOVING INTO
REGION OVERNIGHT STILL EXPECT STRATO-CU TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
TOWARD OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS ALREADY BEGINNING TO WEAKEN
AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS EAST FROM GREAT LAKES. 18Z SOUNDINGS SHOW
DECOUPLING STILL OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT WITH A NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WIND UNDER 6 KTS. BY MID MORNING SATURDAY SUNSHINE WILL MIX DOWN
NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KTS EXPECTED. ONLY SCT VFR CU
EXPECTED.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN GENERAL VFR THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ020-021-
029-031-073-075.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
013>016-022-023-074-076.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ001>004-
012-021-022.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ023-041.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 242228 AAA
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
628 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS OVERNIGHT...JUST WEAKENED THEM A BIT FASTER.
TRIED TO TIME THE DECAYING OF CLOUD DECK...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.
WESTERN EDGE OF CLOUDS ARE ERODING QUICKLY...BUT WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT...TIMING IS DIFFICULT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD
OVERHEAD AT THE SURFACE. COLD NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO KEEP
CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS RIGHT IN LINE WITH THE LATEST RUC FORECAST.
WITH CLOUD COVER STILL IN PLACE...CONTINUED A DOWNWARD TREND IN
THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH PIT LIKELY TO BE
VERY CLOSE TO BREAKING IT`S LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES RECORD FROM
1877.
THE MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT CLOUDS WILL
EVENTUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE ENTIRE REGION...LASTING LONGEST IN
THE RIDGES. HOW FAST THE CLOUDS DIMINISH WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN
HOW QUICKLY TEMPERATURES DROP OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SINCE
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY LOWER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...CLEARING
SKIES SHOULD ALLOW LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30`S TO BE REALIZED
RELATIVELY QUICKLY. FOR NOW...CONTINUED THE FROST/FREEZE AS
IS...ALTHOUGH SOME COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A FREEZE IF
SKIES CLEAR SOONER AND WINDS DECOUPLE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SATURDAY BRINGING A CLEAR DAY
BUT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT 5 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
SUNDAY...BUT MODERATED CLOSER TO NORMAL BY MONDAY. AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT COULD BRING THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY BUT FOR NOW...LEFT LOW
END POPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE DISTRICT TUESDAY WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THE WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S THROUGH
FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERAL MVFR TO VFR STRATOCU REMAINS IN PLACE THIS EVENING WITH
KFKL STILL BELOW 2000 FT AT THIS HOUR. GENERAL BROKEN VFR TO MVFR
CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. CEILINGS COULD SLOWLY LOWER
AFTER SUNSET AS GUSTY WINDS DIMINISH. NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKES
WILL TEND TO KEEPS SOME CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE DISTRICT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN GENERAL VFR THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM FRONT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ020-021-
029-031-073-075.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
013>016-022-023-074-076.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ001>004-
012-021-022.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ023-041.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KPHI 242051
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
451 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG AN OFFSHORE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
PROGRESS NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND OVER THE WEEKEND, REACHING THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND FROM AROUND
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BY MID WEEK, A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR REGION, FOLLOWED BY A BERMUDA TYPE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING TO OUR EAST FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
IT IS A LOVELY MARCH DAY OUT, EXCEPT THAT IT IS, OF COURSE, MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND!
A CDFNT CROSSED THE REGION THIS MORNING AND LINGERING SHWRS CONTINUE
BEHIND IT AS THE H5 TROF REMAINS TO THE W. THEN, AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALG THE FRONT TO OUR NE AND MOVE
NEWD THRU SAT. AT THE SAME TIME, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE W.
AS A RESULT, WE WILL KEEP VERY STRONG NWLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. WE
HAVE ISSUED A SPS FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF CARBON AND MONROE COUNTIES. MPO CAME IN WITH A GUST
TO 43 MPH LAST HOUR. WITH THE SLOW MOVG LOW TO THE NE IT WILL
KEEP AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. PRECIP CHCS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM SW TO NE.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE CRISP WITH MOST LOCATIONS
INTO THE 40S AND SOME EVEN INTO THE 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ON SAT, THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW PROGRESSION
AWAY FROM THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL BE PLENTIFUL IN THE MRNG, AND
DECREASE THRU THE DAY. PRECIP CHCS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE NE TO
ALMOST NON-EXISTENT ACRS THE SW. TEMPS WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE
LOW TO MID 60S WHICH IS GENLY 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NRML.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TO START THE LONG TERM, A MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL BE MOVING AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST, AND WE EXPECT ANY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OVER OUR
NORTHEAST ZONES TO BE QUICKLY DIMINISHING BY SATURDAY EVENING. OF
NOTE, A PRONOUNCED CYCLONIC FLOW WILL STILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, AND THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE. WITH THIS IN
MIND, WE GENERALLY TOOK A BLEND OF HIGHER MAV GUIDANCE WITH
CONTINUITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES, WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S FOR OUR NORTHWEST
ZONES TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S IN THE LOWER DELAWARE VALLEY AND
DELMARVA REGION.
GOING INTO SUNDAY, THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX
ACROSS THE REGION, BUT ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IS IN STORE WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED, BUT
WITH A FEW SHORTWAVES/VORT MAXES PASSING OVERHEAD IN THE STILL
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, SOME CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH THE SUNSHINE,
ESPECIALLY NORTH. GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES BUILDING
EAST AND OVER OUR AREA, WITH THE GRADIENT RELAXING. WITH LIGHTER
WINDS AND FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES, WE ANTICIPATE ANOTHER COOL NIGHT FOR
OUR NORTHWEST ZONES, WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AGAIN DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY, AS THE
AIRMASS BEGINS TO MODERATE, WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO LATE MAY NORMALS. FROM THERE GOING INTO
THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK, MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADILY
CLIMBING. OVERALL, TUESDAY SHOULD FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE FORECAST AREA; ALTHOUGH, A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING OUR
REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. WE MAINTAIN THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS GOING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION, AND WE ALSO KEPT SOME
POPS IN PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY. FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK THEN, A
BERMUDA HIGH BUILDING OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SPREAD ITS INFLUENCE
WESTWARD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES, WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE REAL NEAR TERM. MVFR CIGS WILL
PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT ACTUAL CIG HGTS ARE DIFFICULT TO
FCST. MOST LOCATIONS HAVE BEEN ALTERNATING BETWEEN ABOUT 1500 AND
2500 FT MOST OF THE DAY. THE OVERALL TREND IS UPWARD THOUGH AND
THERE SHOULD BE A RETURN TO VFR LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER,
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WRT THE TIMING. SOME GUID INDICATED THE RETURN
TO VFR WOULD BE LATE AFTN/ERLY EVE WHILE OTHER GUID WAS MORE
PESSIMISTIC AND WAITED UNTIL LATE EVE. CURRENT THINKING IS THE
EARLIER TIMING IS LIKELY TOO OPTIMISTIC BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE
LATER TIMING AS WELL, SO HAVE SPLIT THE DIFF FOR NOW.
THE GOOD NEWS IS ONCE WE GET TO VFR, WE WILL REMAIN THERE THRU THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PD AND INTO THE WKND.
THE NEXT BIG STORY IS THE WIND. A LOW PRES SYS WILL DEVELOP ALG THE
CDFNT THAT PASSED THRU THIS MRNG AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE W. THE RESULTANT STRONG NWLY FLOW WILL KEEP WINDS GUSTING
AOA 30 KTS TODAY AND AGAIN ON SAT. IT IS PSBL TO HAVE SOME 35 KT
AND EVEN AN ISOLATED 40 KT GUST ON SAT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. POSSIBLE SUB-VFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN SHWRS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A WARM FRONT
LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
GALE WARNINGS WERE RAISED WITH THE AFTN PKG ISSUANCE. THEY ARE IN
EFFECT OVER THE SRN WATERS AND DEL BAY AND WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT
10Z FOR THE NRN WATERS. STRONG NWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND
STRENGTHEN FROM S TO N AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W AND
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALG THE CDFNT THAT PASSED THRU THIS MRNG.
OUTLOOK...
A GALE WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE
BAY INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS OVER THE
WATERS. SEAS WILL ALSO BE ELEVATED IN THE 5 TO 6 FOOT RANGE FOR THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 3 TO 5 FEET IN
DELAWARE BAY. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH HEADING
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY, BUT WE WILL LIKELY NEED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINE FOR A TIME ON OUR WATERS FROM THE
EARLY MORNING ON SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD THEN, FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WE ANTICIPATE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON OUR WATERS AS HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION, FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
WE CONTINUE TO FORECAST A MODERATE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE COAST OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-452>455.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450-
451.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/DELISI
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...KLINE/NIERENBERG
MARINE...KLINE/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...DELISI/ROBERTSON
000
FXUS61 KPHI 242001
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
401 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG AN OFFSHORE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
PROGRESS NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND OVER THE WEEKEND, REACHING THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND FROM AROUND
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BY MID WEEK, A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR REGION, FOLLOWED BY A BERMUDA TYPE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING TO OUR EAST FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
IT IS A LOVELY MARCH DAY OUT, EXCEPT THAT IT IS, OF COURSE, MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND!
A CDFNT CROSSED THE REGION THIS MORNING AND LINGERING SHWRS CONTINUE
BEHIND IT AS THE H5 TROF REMAINS TO THE W. THEN, AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALG THE FRONT TO OUR NE AND MOVE
NEWD THRU SAT. AT THE SAME TIME, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE W.
AS A RESULT, WE WILL KEEP VERY STRONG NWLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. WITH
THE SLOW MOVG LOW TO THE NE IT WILL KEEP AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS OVER
THE REGION. PRECIP CHCS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM SW TO NE.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE CRISP WITH MOST LOCATIONS
INTO THE 40S AND SOME EVEN INTO THE 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ON SAT, THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW PROGRESSION
AWAY FROM THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL BE PLENTIFUL IN THE MRNG, AND
DECREASE THRU THE DAY. PRECIP CHCS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE NE TO
ALMOST NON-EXISTENT ACRS THE SW. TEMPS WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE
LOW TO MID 60S WHICH IS GENLY 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NRML.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TO START THE LONG TERM, A MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL BE MOVING AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST, AND WE EXPECT ANY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OVER OUR
NORTHEAST ZONES TO BE QUICKLY DIMINISHING BY SATURDAY EVENING. OF
NOTE, A PRONOUNCED CYCLONIC FLOW WILL STILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, AND THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE. WITH THIS IN
MIND, WE GENERALLY TOOK A BLEND OF HIGHER MAV GUIDANCE WITH
CONTINUITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES, WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S FOR OUR NORTHWEST
ZONES TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S IN THE LOWER DELAWARE VALLEY AND
DELMARVA REGION.
GOING INTO SUNDAY, THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX
ACROSS THE REGION, BUT ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IS IN STORE WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED, BUT
WITH A FEW SHORTWAVES/VORT MAXES PASSING OVERHEAD IN THE STILL
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, SOME CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH THE SUNSHINE,
ESPECIALLY NORTH. GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES BUILDING
EAST AND OVER OUR AREA, WITH THE GRADIENT RELAXING. WITH LIGHTER
WINDS AND FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES, WE ANTICIPATE ANOTHER COOL NIGHT FOR
OUR NORTHWEST ZONES, WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AGAIN DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY, AS THE
AIRMASS BEGINS TO MODERATE, WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO LATE MAY NORMALS. FROM THERE GOING INTO
THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK, MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADILY
CLIMBING. OVERALL, TUESDAY SHOULD FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE FORECAST AREA; ALTHOUGH, A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING OUR
REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. WE MAINTAIN THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS GOING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION, AND WE ALSO KEPT SOME
POPS IN PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY. FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK THEN, A
BERMUDA HIGH BUILDING OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SPREAD ITS INFLUENCE
WESTWARD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES, WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE REAL NEAR TERM. MVFR CIGS WILL
PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT ACTUAL CIG HGTS ARE DIFFICULT TO
FCST. MOST LOCATIONS HAVE BEEN ALTERNATING BETWEEN ABOUT 1500 AND
2500 FT MOST OF THE DAY. THE OVERALL TREND IS UPWARD THOUGH AND
THERE SHOULD BE A RETURN TO VFR LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER,
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WRT THE TIMING. SOME GUID INDICATED THE RETURN
TO VFR WOULD BE LATE AFTN/ERLY EVE WHILE OTHER GUID WAS MORE
PESSIMISTIC AND WAITED UNTIL LATE EVE. CURRENT THINKING IS THE
EARLIER TIMING IS LIKELY TOO OPTIMISTIC BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE
LATER TIMING AS WELL, SO HAVE SPLIT THE DIFF FOR NOW.
THE GOOD NEWS IS ONCE WE GET TO VFR, WE WILL REMAIN THERE THRU THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PD AND INTO THE WKND.
THE NEXT BIG STORY IS THE WIND. A LOW PRES SYS WILL DEVELOP ALG THE
CDFNT THAT PASSED THRU THIS MRNG AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE W. THE RESULTANT STRONG NWLY FLOW WILL KEEP WINDS GUSTING
AOA 30 KTS TODAY AND AGAIN ON SAT. IT IS PSBL TO HAVE SOME 35 KT
AND EVEN AN ISOLATED 40 KT GUST ON SAT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. POSSIBLE SUB-VFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN SHWRS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A WARM FRONT
LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
GALE WARNING WILL BE RAISED WITH THE AFTN PKG ISSUANCE. THEY WILL
GO INTO EFFECT AT 23Z ALG THE SRN WATERS AND DEL BAY AND AT 10Z FOR
THE NRN WATERS. STRONG NWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND STRENGTHEN FROM
S TO N AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W AND LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALG THE CDFNT THAT PASSED THRU THIS MRNG.
OUTLOOK...
A GALE WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE
BAY INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS OVER THE
WATERS. SEAS WILL ALSO BE ELEVATED IN THE 5 TO 6 FOOT RANGE FOR THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 3 TO 5 FEET IN
DELAWARE BAY. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH HEADING
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY, BUT WE WILL LIKELY NEED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINE FOR A TIME ON OUR WATERS FROM THE
EARLY MORNING ON SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD THEN, FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WE ANTICIPATE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON OUR WATERS AS HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION, FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
WE CONTINUE TO FORECAST A MODERATE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE COAST OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ430-431-452>455.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450-
451.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...KLINE/NIERENBERG
MARINE...KLINE/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 241957
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
357 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP UPPER TROUGH (500MB HEIGHTS
-2 STD DEV) DIGGING OVER THE ERN CONUS. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT
HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS WILL CLEAR THE COAST THE NEXT
FEW HOURS (BEFORE 5PM EDT). UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL LOCATE ALONG
THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING...EFFECTIVELY BRINGING AN END TO THE
PRECIP. NW WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH (STRONGER
NEAR THE COAST) WILL SUBSIDE LATE AFTERNOON AS SKIES CLEAR WEST TO
EAST. COLD TONIGHT AS LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPS FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE LOW/MID
40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER PATTERN DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A
TROUGH IN BOTH THE WEST AND EAST WITH RIDGING OVER THE CNTRL
CONUS. UPPER CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
SAT...SLOWLY LIFTING UP THE NE COAST SAT-SUN DUE TO BLOCKING OVER
THE WRN ATLANTIC. CONFLUENCE ALOFT WILL USHER IN COOL SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RESULTANT DEEP LAYER NWLY FLOW WILL
RESULT IN DRY...BUT COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL AS LOW AS 2 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL
THIS WEEKEND...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY UPPER 60S/LOW 70S SAT AND LOW
70S SUN (-1 STD DEV). TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S SAT
NIGHT AND UPPER 40S/LOW 50S SUN NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NRN GULF WILL BEGIN
TO LIFT NWD LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LOCATING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
MONDAY MORNING...EXTENDING NWWD INTO THE PLAINS. UPPER RIDGE WILL
FINALLY PROGRESS EWD MON AS THE UPPER LOW OVER SE CANADA LIFTS. AS
A RESULT...A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE MON. AS THE RIDGE
PROGRESSES EWD...A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS WILL INTERACT WITH THE
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDWEST
INTO THE OH VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY THEN EXPECTED TO
FORM INTO A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. MCS WILL ROUND THE
RIDGE...BUT WILL DIE OUT BEFORE REACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC.
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD MONDAY NIGHT...WITH BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HV AGAIN GONE CLOSE TO A ECMWF/HPC(WPC) BLEND FOR THE MIDWEEK TIME
FRAME. HV ALLOWED FOR SOME SHRAS/ISO T LATER TUESDAY AS WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA, WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF
FVX/RIC/WAL LINE.
THE FRONT SHUNTS NORTH OF THE AREA FOR THE MID TO LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK. MEANWHILE, MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS AS SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
RESULTANT BERMUDA HIGH/"SUMMERLIKE" SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
TEMPS (AND HUMIDITY VALUES) FOR THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL PRIMARILY BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN, WITH LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY AND
INCREASINGLY MUGGY CONDITIONS BY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
POTENT MID/UPR LVL TROUGH HAS LED TO WIDESPREAD SHRA ACRS THE AREA
OVER THE PAST FEW HRS. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NNW AT ALL SITES
AS OF 1730Z. IMPROVING SKY CONDITIONS AT KRIC WITH CIGS LIFTING
ABOVE 3 K FT...BUT FARTHER EAST CAN EXPECT MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS/POCKETS
OF IFR THROUGH 20Z WITH SHRA AND GUSTY N/NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20 TO 30
KT THROUGH 00Z. WINDSPEEDS SUBSIDE TNGT...ALTHOUGH REMAIN GUSTY TO 20
KT OR SO CLOSER TO THE COAST. VFR/DRY CONDITIONS ON SAT...BUT ALL
SITES CAN EXPECT GUSTY NW FLOW..TO 20-25 KT (25-30 KT AT KSBY).
GENLY SKC WITH LIGHTER WINDS SAT NIGHT-SUN.
GENLY DRY/VFR THROUGH MONDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE LATER MON-
TUE AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA. THIS WOULD BE NEXT
CHANCE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT NW FLOW GENERALLY 20-25KT WITH GUSTS TO ~30 KT IN
MOD CAA THIS AFTN. MSAS 3-HR PRESSURE CHANGE IS NOTING ~2-3 MB
PRESSURE RISES OVER THE MARINE AREA BEHIND COLD FRONT WHICH HAS
SHUNTED OFFSHORE THIS AFTN. HV GENERALLY NOTED GUSTS RUNNING JUST
SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF GUIDANCE, HELPED IN PART BY SCT SHRAS ALLOWING
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC. HV GONE AHEAD WITH GALE
WARNING OVER NORTHERN BAY ZONES AND FAR NORTHERN COASTAL ZONES. WIND
GUSTS ARE VERY CLOSE TO GALE IN THESE AREAS ATTM...AND WITH
STRONGEST SURGE OF CAA STILL A FEW HRS OFF, EXPECT PREDOMINATE GUSTS
TO GALE FOR A FEW HRS BETWEEN 00Z/8P AND 10Z/6A. HV RUN HEADLINE
THROUGH 15Z/11A FOR NOW, WITH THE IDEA THAT OVERNIGHT CREW KEEP AN
EYE ON OBS AND EXPIRE EARLY AS NEEDED.
SEAS WILL RUN ON THE ORDER OF 5-8 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS...WAVES
~2 FT ON THE SOUND, 2-3 FT ON THE RIVERS, 3-5 IN THE LOWER CHES BAY.
PERIOD OF SCA FLAGS WILL BE RE-ISSUED AS SOON AS GALES ARE EXPIRED
AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF NJ/SRN NEW ENG COAST SLOWLY LIFTS TO
THE NE INTO SUN...RESULTING IN ONLY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT (SCA PER
WAVEWATCH POTENTIALLY TO LINGER OVR THE NRN OCN WTRS INTO LATE SAT).
SCA FLAGS DROP OFF OVER ALL BUT COASTAL AREAS SAT NIGHT, EXTENDING
INTO ERY SUNDAY OVER NRN COASTAL ZONES.
FAR MORE FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THIS PD WITH W WINDS AOB 15
KT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ633-
635>638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ632-634-654-656-658.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ630-631-650-652.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...MAM
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241926
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
326 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD
OVERHEAD AT THE SURFACE. COLD NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO KEEP
CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS RIGHT IN LINE WITH THE LATEST RUC FORECAST.
WITH CLOUD COVER STILL IN PLACE...CONTINUED A DOWNWARD TREND IN
THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH PIT LIKELY TO BE
VERY CLOSE TO BREAKING IT`S LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES RECORD FROM
1877.
THE MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT CLOUDS WILL
EVENTUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE ENTIRE REGION...LASTING LONGEST IN
THE RIDGES. HOW FAST THE CLOUDS DIMINISH WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN
HOW QUICKLY TEMPERATURES DROP OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SINCE
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY LOWER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...CLEARING
SKIES SHOULD ALLOW LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30`S TO BE REALIZED
RELATIVELY QUICKLY. FOR NOW...CONTINUED THE FROST/FREEZE AS
IS...ALTHOUGH SOME COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A FREEZE IF
SKIES CLEAR SOONER AND WINDS DECOUPLE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SATURDAY BRINGING A CLEAR DAY
BUT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT 5 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
SUNDAY...BUT MODERATED CLOSER TO NORMAL BY MONDAY. AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT COULD BRING THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY BUT FOR NOW...LEFT LOW
END POPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE DISTRICT TUESDAY WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THE WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S THROUGH
FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERAL MVFR TO VFR STRATOCU REMAINS IN PLACE THIS EVENING WITH
KFKL STILL BELOW 2000 FT AT THIS HOUR. GENERAL BROKEN VFR TO MVFR
CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. CEILINGS COULD SLOWLY LOWER
AFTER SUNSET AS GUSTY WINDS DIMINISH. NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKES
WILL TEND TO KEEPS SOME CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE DISTRICT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN GENERAL VFR THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM FRONT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ020-021-
029-031-073-075.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
013>016-022-023-074-076.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ001>004-
012-021-022.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ023-041.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KLWX 241829
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
229 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. MUCH COOLER AND WINDY
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN THE RULE OF THE DAY WITH COLD ADVECTION
OCCURRING.
UPPER TROUGH HAS DROPPED FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. POTENT VORT MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
LOW HAS SUPPORTED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS NEAR THE I-95
CORRIDOR THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT AT 18Z MOST OF THOSE HAD MOVED
EAST OF THE BAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER HAVE BEEN
HANGING TOUGH ALTHOUGH VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL VIRGINIA FOOTHILLS.
HAVE GENERALLY TRIMMED POPS FOR SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY
ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FEW SHOWERS MOVE
THROUGH NORTHEAST MARYLAND EARLY THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
BUT ALLOWED FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THIS AREA THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER
TROUGH/LOW SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE CWA AND THIS PAVES THE WAY FOR
DECENT CLEARING OVERNIGHT.
WHILE GUSTS WILL DIMINISH SOME THIS EVENING...WINDS WILL NOT
DECOUPLE GIVEN TIGHT GRADIENT UNDER A COLD ADVECTION REGIME. THIS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING LIKE A ROCK BUT THE AIR MASS
CHANGE ITSELF WILL BRING A CHILLY NIGHT. WITH WIND DO NOT EXPECT
FROST ISSUES...BUT MINIMA IN THE LOWER 30S OVER THE HIGHLANDS
SUPPORTS THE FREEZE WARNING.
SUNSHINE WILL MAKE A RETURN ON SATURDAY BUT IT WILL BE ANOTHER
WINDY DAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS MAY BE SIMILAR TO
FRIDAY. SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER BELOW NORMAL DAY FOR TEMPERATURES
AS WELL...HOWEVER WITH SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPING FLOW THIS SHOULD
HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND...MOVING OFF THE COAST ON MEMORIAL DAY MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...RETURNING CLOSE TO
CLIMO MEMORIAL DAY. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MUCH OF THE TIME BUT
IN A WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THERE MAY BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS FROM
TIME TO TIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ON TUESDAY...AND MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING DURING THE MID TO
LATE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH MAXIMA LIKELY WELL IN THE 80S WEDNESDAY AND
BEYOND. UNDER THE RIDGE...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK VERY LOW
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEEN THE PRIMARY IMPACT TODAY...WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AT THE HUBS ESPECIALLY IN SHOWERS. SHOWERS
HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE BAY...AND HAVE DRY FORECAST IN FOR THE
VALID TAF PERIOD WITH VFR CONDITIONS. WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH
TONIGHT...BUT GUSTS SIMILAR TO TODAY ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE REST OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND
FOR NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
&&
.MARINE...
GALE WARNING CONTINUES INTO EARLY EVENING. SHOWERS WILL CLEAR THE
BAY BY 19Z...BUT MODELS STILL SUGGEST GRADIENT WIND COULD GUST
AROUND GALES THROUGH 00Z OR SO. SCA IN EFFECT THEREAFTER...AND
CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. COULD HAVE A PERIOD OF NEAR GALES
ON SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO RAISE ATTM.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LESS WIND SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ501.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ503.
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ501-503-
505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT SUNDAY
FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ535-536.
&&
$$
BPP
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 241753
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
153 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS MORNING...BRINGING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...BUILDING INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PER LATEST MSAS SFC ANALYSIS...COLD FRONT HAS LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE
WITH STRONG HEIGHT RISES (+4-6MB) OVER CNTRL AND WRN VA. SCATTERED
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS...AIDED BY DIGGING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. STABLE...POST FRONTAL ATMOSPHERE WILL INHIBIT ANY
CHANCE OF THUNDER. RESIDUAL MOISTURE (PRECIP WATERS ~1.25 INCHES
GENERALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 95) AND THE DIGGING TROUGH (UVM) WILL
MAINTAIN SHOWERS ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST. THUS...HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO SCATTERED THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. TROUGH AXIS WILL ORIENT
ALONG THE COAST LATE AFTERNOON...EFFECTIVELY ENDING PRECIP
CHANCES. CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON...BEFORE CLEARING WEST TO EAST LATE
AFTERNOON. CURRENT TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S INLAND TO
LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS AND CLOUD
COVER/SHOWERS...EXPECT TEMPS TO INCREASE ONLY INTO THE MID/UPPER
60S INLAND AND UPPER 60S/LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST AND OVER NE NC.
THIS IS ABOUT 8 TO 12 DEGS BELOW NORMAL (-1 STD DEV). NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 30 MPH...STRONGER NEAR THE COAST.
LIGHT NW WINDS AND CLEAR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INLAND...WILL RESULT
IN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID 40S. WARMING WATER TEMPS AND
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS ALONG THE COAST IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW
50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND AS NWRLY
CAA FLOW CONTINUES. CONTINUED COOLER TEMPS (HIGHS IN THE LO TO MID
70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S). THIS IS ALMOST 10 DEGREES
BLO NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HV GONE CLOSE TO A ECMWF/HPC(WPC) BLEND WITH THIS PERIOD, WHICH
YIELDS ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST. GFS HAS STARTED
TO CATCH ON TO ECMWF`S SLOWER SOLUTION WRT PROGRESS OF CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST AND ATLANTIC CANADA. THIS SLOWER
SOLUTION ALLOWS FOR A SLOW WARMUP THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT WILL ALSO
ALLOW FOR CONTINUED NW FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. LOW (SLIGHT CHANCE) POPS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MEMORIAL
DAY AFTN/EVENING AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE/MID
LEVEL TROUGH DROPS ACROSS THE REGION WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE MISSOURI/LOWER OHIO VLYS.
BY MIDWEEK, THE FRONT SHUNTS NORTH OF THE AREA. MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING REBUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AS SFC HIGH
SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. RESULTANT BERMUDA
HIGH/"SUMMERLIKE" SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING TEMPS (AND
HUMIDITY VALUES) FOR THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. RAINFALL
OPPORTUNITIES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL PRIMARILY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN,
WITH LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY AND INCREASINGLY MUGGY
CONDITIONS BY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
POTENT MID/UPR LVL TROUGH HAS LED TO WIDESPREAD SHRA ACRS THE AREA
OVER THE PAST FEW HRS. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NNW AT ALL SITES
AS OF 1730Z. IMPROVING SKY CONDITIONS AT KRIC WITH CIGS LIFTING
ABOVE 3 K FT...BUT FARTHER EAST CAN EXPECT MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS/POCKETS
OF IFR THROUGH 20Z WITH SHRA AND GUSTY N/NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20 TO 30
KT THROUGH 00Z. WINDSPEEDS SUBSIDE TNGT...ALTHOUGH REMAIN GUSTY TO 20
KT OR SO CLOSER TO THE COAST. VFR/DRY CONDITIONS ON SAT...BUT ALL
SITES CAN EXPECT GUSTY NW FLOW..TO 20-25 KT (25-30 KT AT KSBY).
GENLY SKC WITH LIGHTER WINDS SAT NIGHT-SUN.
GENLY DRY/VFR THROUGH MONDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE LATER MON-
TUE AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA. THIS WOULD BE NEXT
CHANCE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
CONDS GENLY BLO SCA ATTM. WNDS STARTING OFF WSW ERY/MID MRNG PRIOR
TO CDFNTL PASSAGE LTR THIS MRNG. WATCHING SFC PRES RISES (AND
ASSOCIATED GUSTY WNDS TO ABT 25 KT) FM WRN NY TO OH RVR VLY) AND
XPCD THAT TO ARRIVE W/ THE CDFNTL PASSAGE AFT 12-15Z/24. WINDSHIFT
TO NNW AND INCRS IN SPDS (DUE TO MDT LLVL CAA) TO SOLID SCAS (20-30
KT). OCNL GUSTS TO/ABV GALE (35KT) PSBL ON THE OCN...WILL HOLD OFF
ON ANY GALE WARNING FOR NOW THOUGH AS PROB RMNS LO. THESE CONDS TO
LAST THROUGH SAT AS CSTL LO PRES (OFFSHR) IS SLO TO DVLP BEFORE
MOVING NE ACRS ERN NEW ENG ON SUN. GFS/ECMWF RMN IN OVERALL
AGREEMENT OVR DVLPMNT AND LOCATION OF THAT STM OFF NJ/SRN NEW ENG
TNGT INTO SAT. SLO/GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT (LASTLY OVR THE NRN OCN WTRS)
BY 2ND PART OF THE WKND.
WILL START ALL HEADLINES (SCAS) W/ NEW PACKAGE...AND CONT THROUGH
SAT AFTN/ERY SAT NGT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ633-
635>638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...ALB
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241628
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1228 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WITH THE APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD OVERHEAD. THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM IS THE
IMPACT CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE ON TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND HOW THIS WILL FURTHER IMPACT FROST/FREEZE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RUC SUGGEST THAT
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL STRUGGLE TO
MIX OUT TODAY...KEEPING CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE REGION LONGER
THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. HAVE ALREADY LOWERED HIGH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES TODAY WITH THE CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION
AND CLOUD COVER. DEPENDING ON WHEN THE LOWER LEVELS DRY
OUT...TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE LITTLE TIME TO WARM BEFORE
NIGHTFALL...LEADING TO A MORE WIDESPREAD FREEZE. OR...AS THE RUC
SUGGESTS....CLOUDS COULD REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ELIMINATING THE FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL. AT
THIS POINT HOWEVER...FOLLOWED CLOSER TO NAM/GFS GUIDANCE AND
MAINTAINED CLEARING SKIES BY TONIGHT AND THUS HAVE MADE NO CHANGES
TO CURRENT PRODUCTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY SFC HIGH PRES UNDR NW FLOW ALOFT WL MAINTAIN COLD TEMPS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT READINGS OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES UNDR THE
AVERAGES WITH FROST POTENTIAL AGAIN ON SATURDAY NGT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN DRY WEA UNTIL A WARM FRONT
INCREASES PCPN CHCS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. INITIALLY COLD TEMPS
WL MODERATE TO...AND THEN ABOVE SEASONAL LVLS AS SLY FLOW RESUMES
BY MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERAL MVFR TO VFR STRATOCU REMAINS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
KMGW AND KFKL STILL BELOW 2000 FT AT THIS HOUR. CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY
LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH GENERAL BROKEN VFR CEILINGS BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. STRATOCU
CEILINGS MAY PERSIST AND LOWER INTO TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
OFF THE LAKES INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WL MAINTAIN VFR THROUGH EARLY NXT WEEK.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ020-021-
029-031-073-075.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
013>016-022-023-074-076.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ001>004-
012-021-022.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ023-041.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241545
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1145 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WITH THE APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD OVERHEAD. THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM IS THE
IMPACT CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE ON TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND HOW THIS WILL FURTHER IMPACT FROST/FREEZE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RUC SUGGEST THAT
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL STRUGGLE TO
MIX OUT TODAY...KEEPING CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE REGION LONGER
THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. HAVE ALREADY LOWERED HIGH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES TODAY WITH THE CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION
AND CLOUD COVER. DEPENDING ON WHEN THE LOWER LEVELS DRY
OUT...TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE LITTLE TIME TO WARM BEFORE
NIGHTFALL...LEADING TO A MORE WIDESPREAD FREEZE. OR...AS THE RUC
SUGGESTS....CLOUDS COULD REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ELIMINATING THE FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL. AT
THIS POINT HOWEVER...FOLLOWED CLOSER TO NAM/GFS GUIDANCE AND
MAINTAINED CLEARING SKIES BY TONIGHT AND THUS HAVE MADE NO CHANGES
TO CURRENT PRODUCTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY SFC HIGH PRES UNDR NW FLOW ALOFT WL MAINTAIN COLD TEMPS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT READINGS OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES UNDR THE
AVERAGES WITH FROST POTENTIAL AGAIN ON SATURDAY NGT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN DRY WEA UNTIL A WARM FRONT
INCREASES PCPN CHCS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. INITIALLY COLD TEMPS
WL MODERATE TO...AND THEN ABOVE SEASONAL LVLS AS SLY FLOW RESUMES
BY MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EARLY MRNG IFR AND MVFR ST AND STRATOCU CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH DRY ADVCTN GRADUALLY INCRSG T/DP
SPREADS DESPITE COLD FLOW. WIND GUSTS TO ABOUT 22 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED
IN THE SHALLOW MIXING REGIME. THAT POTENTIAL WL CEASE WITH
DECOUPLING THIS EVE.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WL MAINTAIN VFR THROUGH EARLY NXT WEEK.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ020-021-
029-031-073-075.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
013>016-022-023-074-076.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ001>004-
012-021-022.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ023-041.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 241424
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1024 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS MORNING...BRINGING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...BUILDING INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PER LATEST MSAS SFC ANALYSIS...COLD FRONT HAS LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE
WITH STRONG HEIGHT RISES (+4-6MB) OVER CNTRL AND WRN VA. SCATTERED
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS...AIDED BY DIGGING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. STABLE...POST FRONTAL ATMOSPHERE WILL INHIBIT ANY
CHANCE OF THUNDER. RESIDUAL MOISTURE (PRECIP WATERS ~1.25 INCHES
GENERALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 95) AND THE DIGGING TROUGH (UVM) WILL
MAINTAIN SHOWERS ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST. THUS...HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO SCATTERED THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. TROUGH AXIS WILL ORIENT
ALONG THE COAST LATE AFTERNOON...EFFECTIVELY ENDING PRECIP
CHANCES. CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON...BEFORE CLEARING WEST TO EAST LATE
AFTERNOON. CURRENT TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S INLAND TO
LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS AND CLOUD
COVER/SHOWERS...EXPECT TEMPS TO INCREASE ONLY INTO THE MID/UPPER
60S INLAND AND UPPER 60S/LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST AND OVER NE NC.
THIS IS ABOUT 8 TO 12 DEGS BELOW NORMAL (-1 STD DEV). NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 30 MPH...STRONGER NEAR THE COAST.
LIGHT NW WINDS AND CLEAR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INLAND...WILL RESULT
IN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID 40S. WARMING WATER TEMPS AND
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS ALONG THE COAST IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW
50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND AS NWRLY
CAA FLOW CONTINUES. CONTINUED COOLER TEMPS (HIGHS IN THE LO TO MID
70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S). THIS IS ALMOST 10 DEGREES
BLO NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HV GONE CLOSE TO A ECMWF/HPC(WPC) BLEND WITH THIS PERIOD, WHICH
YIELDS ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST. GFS HAS STARTED
TO CATCH ON TO ECMWF`S SLOWER SOLUTION WRT PROGRESS OF CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST AND ATLANTIC CANADA. THIS SLOWER
SOLUTION ALLOWS FOR A SLOW WARMUP THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT WILL ALSO
ALLOW FOR CONTINUED NW FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. LOW (SLIGHT CHANCE) POPS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MEMORIAL
DAY AFTN/EVENING AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE/MID
LEVEL TROUGH DROPS ACROSS THE REGION WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE MISSOURI/LOWER OHIO VLYS.
BY MIDWEEK, THE FRONT SHUNTS NORTH OF THE AREA. MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING REBUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AS SFC HIGH
SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. RESULTANT BERMUDA
HIGH/"SUMMERLIKE" SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING TEMPS (AND
HUMIDITY VALUES) FOR THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. RAINFALL
OPPORTUNITIES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL PRIMARILY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN,
WITH LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY AND INCREASINGLY MUGGY
CONDITIONS BY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LINGERING POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS (ERY/MID) MRNG PRIOR TO CDFNT
CROSSING THE RGN. WIDESPREAD VFR CIGS (3-6KFT) (AND WINDSHIFT TO
NNW AND BECOMING GUSTY TO 25-30 KT) XPCD POST CDFNT AND AS
MID/UPR LVL TROUGH CROSSES THE RGN TDA (LT MRNG THROUGH AFTN).
WINDSPEEDS SUBSIDE TNGT...THEN BECOME GUSTY AGN ON SAT (W/ VFR
CONDS CONTG). LESS WIND AND GENLY SKC SUN.
&&
.MARINE...
CONDS GENLY BLO SCA ATTM. WNDS STARTING OFF WSW ERY/MID MRNG PRIOR
TO CDFNTL PASSAGE LTR THIS MRNG. WATCHING SFC PRES RISES (AND
ASSOCIATED GUSTY WNDS TO ABT 25 KT) FM WRN NY TO OH RVR VLY) AND
XPCD THAT TO ARRIVE W/ THE CDFNTL PASSAGE AFT 12-15Z/24. WINDSHIFT
TO NNW AND INCRS IN SPDS (DUE TO MDT LLVL CAA) TO SOLID SCAS (20-30
KT). OCNL GUSTS TO/ABV GALE (35KT) PSBL ON THE OCN...WILL HOLD OFF
ON ANY GALE WARNING FOR NOW THOUGH AS PROB RMNS LO. THESE CONDS TO
LAST THROUGH SAT AS CSTL LO PRES (OFFSHR) IS SLO TO DVLP BEFORE
MOVING NE ACRS ERN NEW ENG ON SUN. GFS/ECMWF RMN IN OVERALL
AGREEMENT OVR DVLPMNT AND LOCATION OF THAT STM OFF NJ/SRN NEW ENG
TNGT INTO SAT. SLO/GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT (LASTLY OVR THE NRN OCN WTRS)
BY 2ND PART OF THE WKND.
WILL START ALL HEADLINES (SCAS) W/ NEW PACKAGE...AND CONT THROUGH
SAT AFTN/ERY SAT NGT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ633-
635>638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB
000
FXUS61 KPHI 241332
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
932 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST AND SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHEAST REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY NIGHT. A
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EAST IN ITS WAKE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A
BERMUDA TYPE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN START BUILDING INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COOL, DAMP, DREARY DAY IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY,
WHICH WILL FEEL MORE LIKE LATE FALL INSTEAD OF LATE SPRING. BEHIND
A CFP, NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP. THEN A SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
ALG THE FRONT TO OUR NE DURG THE DAY. TODAY WILL BE ONE OF THOSE
DAYS WHEN THE HIGH TEMPERATURE OCCURS EARLY, THEN BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY FALL, OR REMAIN NEARLY
STEADY. WE EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST
OF THE DAY, BUT IF ANY BREAKS DO OCCUR AND THE SUN COMES OUT, IT
COULD OFFSET THE DROPPING OF THE TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY A MAV/MET
MOS BLEND WAS TAKEN, WITH A NON- DIURNAL HOURLY TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.
LATEST RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REGION AND THESE
WERE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. THE AIRMASS WILL BE FAIRLY STABLE
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, SO WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. ALSO, PW VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DROP BEHIND THE
FRONT, SO PRECIPITATION WOULD BE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY LIGHT,
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL.
TODAY WILL ALSO BE A RATHER BREEZY DAY. ONCE WINDS BEGIN TO GUST
BEHIND THE FRONT, SPEEDS COULD EASILY REACH 25-30 MPH WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE MID-UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, WHILE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THERE WILL REMAIN A FAIR AMOUNT OF WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THEREFORE, SHOWERS REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, WITH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ZONES.
MAV/MET MOS GUIDANCE WERE FAIRLY CLOSE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING, SO A BLEND WAS TAKE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH GUSTS
25-30 MPH, WITH SOME POSSIBLY LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER THAN THE WRF-NMMB OVERALL. WE
DO LIKE THE WAY THE FORMER IS HANDLING THE SHARPENING OF THE TROF
IN THE GREAT LAKES, IT LOOKED CORRECTLY DEEPER THAN THE WRF-NMMB
AND PBLY WHY THE LATTER HAD A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION. DP/DTING
WITH THE OVERALL IDEA OF THE CLOSING LOW NOT DIGGING AS MUCH
(WHICH IS LOGICAL FOR LATE MAY), WE LEANED HEAVILY IN THE GFS`S
DIRECTION.
THUS ON SATURDAY WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES WE WERE
SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC. LAST NGT`S RUN BOTH LITERALLY AND
FIGURATIVELY WAS THE TROF. WE REMOVED MENTION OF PCPN CHANCES FAR
SOUTHWEST AND LOWERED POPS CENTRAL. WE KEPT LIKELY POPS SATURDAY
MORNING NORTHEAST AS THE GFS STILL SHOWED SOME FCST MID LEVEL WAA
SATURDAY MORNING AND AN EXITING TROWAL. THE ROBUST MID LEVEL QVEC
CONVERGENCE HAS DRIFTED PRACTICALLY OUT OF OUR CWA BY 12Z SATURDAY.
THE ONE ASPECT THAT HAS NOT CHANGED THOUGH WITH SATURDAY IS THE
WIND. THE GFS ESPECIALLY REMAINS FAIRLY RAMBUNCTIOUS ABOUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS TO OCCUR. THIS IS AN ODD
POSITION BECAUSE ITS NORMALLY THE WRF-NMMB`S MILIEU AND THE ECMWF
IS ASSUMING ITS USUAL MORE MUTED SOLUTION. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
COINCIDING WHERE THE PCPN AND MOST CLOUDINESS IS FORECAST. SO
WHILE THE SOUNDING SHOULD BE MORE ADIABATIC THAN TYPICAL UNDER
THOSE CIRCUMSTANCES, IT DOES CAST SOME UNCERTAINTY. FARTHER TO THE
SOUTHWEST THE OVERALL WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHTER, BUT
MIX TO A HIGHER LEVEL. ALL THAT BEING SAID, GIVEN THAT THE TREES
ARE IN FULL LEAF OUT, ONE COULD POSSIBLY HAVE ADVISORY LEVEL WIND
DAMAGE TO WEAK TREES AND LIMBS WITHOUT THE WIND CRITERIA BEING MET
GIVEN THIS LOOKS TO BE A PROLONGED WINDY PERIOD. ITS WORTH A
MENTION IN THE HWO. STAT GUIDANCE LOOKS PRETTY CLOSE AND LOOKS
REASONABLE BASED ON FCST 925MB TEMPS.
WE KEPT IN A LOW CHANCE EARLY SATURDAY EVENING FAR NORTHEAST, BUT
THE OVERALL SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST TREND DOES NOT SUPPORT KEEPING IN
POPS ANY LONGER OR FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE GRADIENT WILL STILL
BE PRESENT ON SATURDAY NIGHT, SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH
DECOUPLING. WE DID NOT SIDE WITH THE LOWER STAT GUIDANCE FOR THIS
REASON.
THE FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY STILL HAS A SLIGHT CYCLONIC LOOK TO IT
WITH SHORT WAVES STILL PASSING THROUGH. TRUE THE MODEL FORECAST
MEAN RH`S ARE EXTREMELY LOW, BUT HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN SHORT
WAVES THAN RH`S AT THIS FCST POINT AND THUS SLIGHTLY MORE
PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUDS THAN GUIDANCE WITH THE CONVECTIVE TEMP
FCST TO BE REACHED. WE DID LEAN TOWARD THE LOWER STAT GUIDANCE FOR
MAX TEMPS. FCST 850MB AND 925MB TEMPS SUGGEST BEING MORE
CONSERVATIVE AND NOT SURE IF CLIMO IS STARTING TO EXERT TOO MUCH
OF AN INFLUENCE ON MAX TEMPS. WHILE SUNDAY SHOULD ALSO BE WINDY,
THE MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 MPH LOWER.
DEPENDING UPON HOW QUICKLY THE HIGH BUILDS INTO OUR CWA, WE MIGHT
HAVE SOME FROST ISSUES FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE A CLEAR CRISP NIGHT.
MONDAY STILL LOOKING LIKE THE BEST OF THE THREE HOLIDAY WEEKEND DAYS
WITH MAX TEMPS RECOVERING CLOSER TO CLIMO LEVELS.
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE REST OF THE LONG TERM. WE LIKE THE GFS
TIMING OF WARM FRONTAL PCPN FOR TUE NIGHT AS THE ECMWF SOLUTION
HAS A LOOK OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK TO IT THAT IT PERPETUATES FROM
THE MIDWEST INTO OUR CWA LIKELY TOO FAST AND ALSO TOO FAR SOUTH.
WE KEEP THE CHANCE IN FOR WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT A BERMUDA HIGH
STARTS BUILDING WESTWARD AGAIN AND WE WILL GO FROM THE
REFRIGERATOR TO THE STOVE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MORE LOCATIONS
THAN JUST READING MAY HAVE A SHOT OF REACHING 90 DEGREES AFTER
ALL IS SAID AND DONE WITH THIS AIR MASS.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VARIABLE CIGS WILL OCCUR OVER THE REGION THIS MRNG, WITH SOME IFR
PSBL BUT MORE LIKELY MVFR AND EVEN SOME VFR. ITS GOING TO BE ONE
OF THOSE DAYS.
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY THROUGH
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MVFR NORTHEASTERN TERMINALS AND VFR ELSEWHERE IMPROVING
TO VFR ALL. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED 30 KTS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
SATURDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. LWR CIGS/VSBYS PSBL AT NIGHT WITH WARM FRONT AND
PRECIPITATION. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR ALL OF THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, AND THE DELAWARE BAY AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME QUITE GUSTY BEHIND AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WE
STARTED THE ADVISORY ON THE DELAWARE BAY A LITTLE SOONER, AS THE
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN GUSTING AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH SHOULD BE
LATER THIS MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
WE WILL ISSUE A GALE WATCH FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. THERE
IS GROWING MODEL CONSENSUS ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE FORCE
GUSTS. LOWEST CONFIDENCE IS OFF THE DELAWARE COAST. THEN A SLOW
DECREASE IN WINDS TO SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SATURDAY
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IT MIGHT TAKE AS LONG AS SUNDAY EVENING FOR
THIS TO OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS. AFTER THAT WE ARE
OUTLOOKING SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO OCCUR FOR THE
REST OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
WE CONTINUE TO FORECAST A MODERATE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE COAST OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TODAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ430-431-450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...
000
FXUS61 KLWX 241317
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
917 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA TODAY...AND THEN
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT HAS WORKED ITS WAY EAST OF THE BAY AND WILL PROGRESS
OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST HAS
OCCURRED AND WITH COLD ADVECTION UNDERWAY WIND GUSTS HAVE ALREADY
REACHED THE 30 TO 35 MPH MARK.
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DROPS SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC TODAY. STRONG VORT MAX AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ON ITS EASTERN SIDE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THAT/S WHAT WE ARE SEEING ON RADAR THIS MORNING AND
THESE WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. NAM/WRF-ARW/HRRR
CAPTURE THIS WELL.
ASIDE FROM SHOWERS...TODAY WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WINDY AND COOL
CONDITIONS. WE/VE LIKELY ALREADY HIT THE HIGHS FOR THE DAY AND
LITTLE IF ANY REBOUND IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL FEEL
MORE LIKE MARCH THAN MAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
LOW/TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT TONIGHT WHICH WILL SHUNT THE LOW
AND RELATED PRECIP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
CLEARING BEHIND THE SYSTEM...ALONG WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL MAKE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT BY LATE MAY STANDARDS. MIN TEMPS LOW TO
MID 40S IN THE SUBURBS (WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE UPR 30S)...AROUND
50F IN URBAN AND NEAR SHORE LOCALES. WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...EXPECT
UPR 30S TO LOW 40S. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALONG AND WEST
OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WHERE LOW 30S ARE EXPECTED. DOWNSLOPING FLOW
SHOULD ACTUALLY MODERATE TEMPS AT KW99 AND KCBE OVERNIGHT. WIND
CHILLS IN THE MOUNTAINS MID TO UPR 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES OVR THE AREA FOR THE WKND. IF MEM DAY WKND IS THE
"UNOFFICIAL START OF SUMMER" THEN SUMMER IS OFF TO A PRETTY FINE
START - BUT MAYBE NOT FOR SWIMMING. I SUSPECT POOL WATER MAY BE A BIT ON
THE COOL SIDE - IF YOU GO TO OUR WEB PAGE AND LOOK AT THE TEMP
GRAPHS FOR 2013 YOU SEE THAT WE`VE HAD A FAIR AMT OF AVG OR BLO
AVG TEMPS SINCE MAR..AND THE COMING NGTS WL DO NOTHING TO HELP
WATER TEMPS.
HIGHS SAT IN THE MU60S...THEN SLOWLY WARMING TO THE M70S BY MON.
LOWS SAT NGT RANGING FM THE M30S IN THE HIGHLANDS TO A50 ON THE WRN
SHORE OF THE CHES BAY. MOST OF THE RGN WL DROP TO THE 40S SAT
NGT...THEN A LTL WARMER EACH OF THE FOLLOWING NGTS OF THE LONG
WKND.
BY TUE THE RGN WL BEGIN A WARMUP WHICH REALLY WL MAKE TEMPS FEEL
SUMMER-LK FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WK. HIGH PRES WL MOVE OFF THE
CST ALLOWING THE HEAT PUMP TO TURN BACK ON IN THE MID ATLC. TUE
SHOULD APRCH 80 FOR HIGHS...AND THEN CLIMBING A FEW DEGS EACH DAY.
BY FRI RGN SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF U80S.
NOT A LOT TO GRAB ONTO REGARDING PCPN FCST IN THE WK AHD. MOST
LKLY DURG THE 2ND HALF OF THE WK THERE`LL BE AFTN SCT CONVCTN
FORMING OVR THE MTNS.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT...WITH LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON GUSTS OCCASIONALLY ABOVE 25-30 KT. THERE WILL BE
SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY FROM DCA UP TO
BWI/MTN. IN SHOWERS...VFR CIGS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR. GUSTS
SHOULD DIMINISH SOME LATER IN THE EVENING.
IN THE XNTD VFR CNDS ARE XPCTD DURG THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME SAT-TUE.
&&
.MARINE...
HAVE UPGRADED TO A GALE FOR TODAY. GRADIENT WIND/NW FLOW WILL
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL GUSTS 30 TO 35 KT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
POTENTIALLY PRODUCING HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW
GALES THIS EVENING...BUT REMAIN IN SOLID SCA CRITERIA.
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS COULD XPRNC SCA LVL WINDS SUN AFTN.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ501.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ503.
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ501-503-
505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530>543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...ABW
AVIATION...BPP/ABW
MARINE...BPP/ABW
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241252
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
852 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MADE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY TO LOWER DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
TREND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AS CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE IT
DIFFICULT FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE RAPIDLY...AT LEAST INITIALLY.
OTHERWISE...SCATTERED SHOWERS/DRIZZLE CONTINUES FOR POINTS EAST OF
THE PA/WV/OH LINE THIS MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SHWRS CONT TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE IN THE WAKE OF LAST EVES CDFNT
AND PCPN FORECAST HAS THUS BEEN ADJUSTED FOR THE LATEST OBS AND
RADAR TRENDS. IN GENL...SHWR AREA TO THE EAST OF PITTSBURGH WL
PROGRESS AND SCT THROUGH THE MRNG AS COLDER AIR FLOWS OVR THE
REGION UNDR A RELATIVELY LOW INVERSION LVL. THAT PTN WL WL
MAINTAIN SOME STRATOCU TDA...BUT OVRALL DRYING WL HERALD REDUCED
CLD COVER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
INITIAL TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING OB-TWEAKED LAMP GUIDANCE WHILE
TNGTS COLD READINGS WERE A RESULT OF A GFS MOS AND NAM BLEND. FOR
THE RIDGES AND AREAS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH...SUSTAINED WIND SHOULD
PRECLUDE FROST...BUT COLD ADVCTN IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO
SPPRT A FREEZE. HENCE...A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN INCLUDED WITH
THIS MRNGS PACKAGE.
FOR COUNTIES WEST AND SOUTH OF PIT...WIND MAY DIE VIA DECOUPLING
AND DIMINISHED PRES GRADIENT WITH THE HIGH SETTLING TOWARD THE MID
OHIO VALLEY...SO HAVE OPTED FOR A FROST ADVISORY IN COLLABORATION
WITH THE NEIGHBORS...BUT DAY SHIFT WL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR A
DEGRADE/UPGRADE TO A FREEZE WARNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY SFC HIGH PRES UNDR NW FLOW ALOFT WL MAINTAIN COLD TEMPS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT READINGS OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES UNDR THE
AVERAGES WITH FROST POTENTIAL AGAIN ON SATURDAY NGT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN DRY WEA UNTIL A WARM FRONT
INCREASES PCPN CHCS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. INITIALLY COLD TEMPS
WL MODERATE TO...AND THEN ABOVE SEASONAL LVLS AS SLY FLOW RESUMES
BY MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EARLY MRNG IFR AND MVFR ST AND STRATOCU CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH DRY ADVCTN GRADUALLY INCRSG T/DP
SPREADS DESPITE COLD FLOW. WIND GUSTS TO ABOUT 22 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED
IN THE SHALLOW MIXING REGIME. THAT POTENTIAL WL CEASE WITH
DECOUPLING THIS EVE.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WL MAINTAIN VFR THROUGH EARLY NXT WEEK.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ020-021-
029-031-073-075.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
013>016-022-023-074-076.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ001>004-
012-021-022.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ023-041.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KLWX 241213
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
813 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RESIDE OVER THE
AREA TODAY...AND THEN CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 07Z...COLD ANAFRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC. PRECIP
HAS PUSHED TO THE ERN SHORE WITH LIGHT WLY FLOW ACROSS THE BALT-WASH
METRO...GUSTY NWLY FLOW OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...WITH LIGHT
PRECIP AND COOLER CONDITIONS OVER THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. AN UPR
TROUGH AXIS IS EVIDENT AS THE BACK EDGE OF A CLOUD SHIELD OVER NWRN
OH. THE COLD FRONT AND UPR TROUGH/DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED UPR LOW
WILL SWING EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC TODAY.
THIS COLD CORE TROUGH/LOW WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT NWLY FLOW WITH GUSTS 30
TO 35 MPH...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
LOW/TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT TONIGHT WHICH WILL SHUNT THE LOW
AND RELATED PRECIP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
CLEARING BEHIND THE SYSTEM...ALONG WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL MAKE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT BY LATE MAY STANDARDS. MIN TEMPS LOW TO
MID 40S IN THE SUBURBS (WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE UPR 30S)...AROUND
50F IN URBAN AND NEAR SHORE LOCALES. WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...EXPECT
UPR 30S TO LOW 40S. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALONG AND WEST
OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WHERE LOW 30S ARE EXPECTED. DOWNSLOPING FLOW
SHOULD ACTUALLY MODERATE TEMPS AT KW99 AND KCBE OVERNIGHT. WIND
CHILLS IN THE MOUNTAINS MID TO UPR 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES OVR THE AREA FOR THE WKND. IF MEM DAY WKND IS THE
"UNOFFICIAL START OF SUMMER" THEN SUMMER IS OFF TO A PRETTY FINE
START - BUT MAYBE NOT FOR SWIMMING. I SUSPECT POOL WATER MAY BE A BIT ON
THE COOL SIDE - IF YOU GO TO OUR WEB PAGE AND LOOK AT THE TEMP
GRAPHS FOR 2013 YOU SEE THAT WE`VE HAD A FAIR AMT OF AVG OR BLO
AVG TEMPS SINCE MAR..AND THE COMING NGTS WL DO NOTHING TO HELP
WATER TEMPS.
HIGHS SAT IN THE MU60S...THEN SLOWLY WARMING TO THE M70S BY MON.
LOWS SAT NGT RANGING FM THE M30S IN THE HIGHLANDS TO A50 ON THE WRN
SHORE OF THE CHES BAY. MOST OF THE RGN WL DROP TO THE 40S SAT
NGT...THEN A LTL WARMER EACH OF THE FOLLOWING NGTS OF THE LONG
WKND.
BY TUE THE RGN WL BEGIN A WARMUP WHICH REALLY WL MAKE TEMPS FEEL
SUMMER-LK FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WK. HIGH PRES WL MOVE OFF THE
CST ALLOWING THE HEAT PUMP TO TURN BACK ON IN THE MID ATLC. TUE
SHOULD APRCH 80 FOR HIGHS...AND THEN CLIMBING A FEW DEGS EACH DAY.
BY FRI RGN SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF U80S.
NOT A LOT TO GRAB ONTO REGARDING PCPN FCST IN THE WK AHD. MOST
LKLY DURG THE 2ND HALF OF THE WK THERE`LL BE AFTN SCT CONVCTN
FORMING OVR THE MTNS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATCHY FOG BEFORE SUNRISE WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST THROUGH
DAYBREAK. NWLY FLOW WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT. NEAR MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON UNDER AN
UPR LOW. GUSTS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT 20 TO 25 KT THOUGH CIGS WILL RISE
ABOVE 5 KFT.
IN THE XNTD VFR CNDS ARE XPCTD DURG THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME SAT-TUE.
&&
.MARINE...
HAVE UPGRADED TO A GALE FOR TODAY. GRADIENT WIND/NW FLOW WILL
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL GUSTS 30 TO 35 KT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
POTENTIALLY PRODUCING HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW
GALES THIS EVENING...BUT REMAIN IN SOLID SCA CRITERIA.
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS COULD XPRNC SCA LVL WINDS SUN AFTN.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ501.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ503.
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ501-503-
505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530>543.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 241026
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
626 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST. NOT EXPECTING SKIES TO COMPLETELY CLR OUT...WITH
MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE ALOFT FOLLOWING THE SFC FROPA.
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE FA FRI MORNING WILL USHER IN A COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS FROM THE NORTH. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND MIXING DURING
THE AFTN WILL CREATE WINDY CONDITIONS WITH WINDS GUSTING OVER
20 MPH. THE MID LEVEL LOW SWINGS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC
PROVIDING THE NECESSARY LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS. ANY
PRECIP WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURE ON FRI TO STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT WITH LOW TO MID 70S FARTHER EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND AS NWRLY
CAA FLOW CONTINUES. CONTINUED COOLER TEMPS (HIGHS IN THE LO TO MID
70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S). THIS IS ALMOST 10 DEGREES
BLO NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HV GONE CLOSE TO A ECMWF/HPC(WPC) BLEND WITH THIS PERIOD, WHICH
YIELDS ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST. GFS HAS STARTED
TO CATCH ON TO ECMWF`S SLOWER SOLUTION WRT PROGRESS OF CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST AND ATLANTIC CANADA. THIS SLOWER
SOLUTION ALLOWS FOR A SLOW WARMUP THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT WILL ALSO
ALLOW FOR CONTINUED NW FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. LOW (SLIGHT CHANCE) POPS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MEMORIAL
DAY AFTN/EVENING AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE/MID
LEVEL TROUGH DROPS ACROSS THE REGION WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE MISSOURI/LOWER OHIO VLYS.
BY MIDWEEK, THE FRONT SHUNTS NORTH OF THE AREA. MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING REBUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AS SFC HIGH
SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. RESULTANT BERMUDA
HIGH/"SUMMERLIKE" SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING TEMPS (AND
HUMIDITY VALUES) FOR THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. RAINFALL
OPPORTUNITIES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL PRIMARILY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN,
WITH LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY AND INCREASINGLY MUGGY
CONDITIONS BY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LINGERING POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS (ERY/MID) MRNG PRIOR TO CDFNT
CROSSING THE RGN. WIDESPREAD VFR CIGS (3-6KFT) (AND WINDSHIFT TO
NNW AND BECOMING GUSTY TO 25-30 KT) XPCD POST CDFNT AND AS
MID/UPR LVL TROUGH CROSSES THE RGN TDA (LT MRNG THROUGH AFTN).
WINDSPEEDS SUBSIDE TNGT...THEN BECOME GUSTY AGN ON SAT (W/ VFR
CONDS CONTG). LESS WIND AND GENLY SKC SUN.
&&
.MARINE...
CONDS GENLY BLO SCA ATTM. WNDS STARTING OFF WSW ERY/MID MRNG PRIOR
TO CDFNTL PASSAGE LTR THIS MRNG. WATCHING SFC PRES RISES (AND
ASSOCIATED GUSTY WNDS TO ABT 25 KT) FM WRN NY TO OH RVR VLY) AND
XPCD THAT TO ARRIVE W/ THE CDFNTL PASSAGE AFT 12-15Z/24. WINDSHIFT
TO NNW AND INCRS IN SPDS (DUE TO MDT LLVL CAA) TO SOLID SCAS (20-30
KT). OCNL GUSTS TO/ABV GALE (35KT) PSBL ON THE OCN...WILL HOLD OFF
ON ANY GALE WARNING FOR NOW THOUGH AS PROB RMNS LO. THESE CONDS TO
LAST THROUGH SAT AS CSTL LO PRES (OFFSHR) IS SLO TO DVLP BEFORE
MOVING NE ACRS ERN NEW ENG ON SUN. GFS/ECMWF RMN IN OVERALL
AGREEMENT OVR DVLPMNT AND LOCATION OF THAT STM OFF NJ/SRN NEW ENG
TNGT INTO SAT. SLO/GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT (LASTLY OVR THE NRN OCN WTRS)
BY 2ND PART OF THE WKND.
WILL START ALL HEADLINES (SCAS) W/ NEW PACKAGE...AND CONT THROUGH
SAT AFTN/ERY SAT NGT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ633-
635>638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...DAP
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB
000
FXUS61 KLWX 240948
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
548 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RESIDE OVER THE
AREA TODAY...AND THEN CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 07Z...COLD ANAFRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC. PRECIP
HAS PUSHED TO THE ERN SHORE WITH LIGHT WLY FLOW ACROSS THE BALT-WASH
METRO...GUSTY NWLY FLOW OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...WITH LIGHT
PRECIP AND COOLER CONDITIONS OVER THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. AN UPR
TROUGH AXIS IS EVIDENT AS THE BACK EDGE OF A CLOUD SHIELD OVER NWRN
OH. THE COLD FRONT AND UPR TROUGH/DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED UPR LOW
WILL SWING EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC TODAY.
THIS COLD CORE TROUGH/LOW WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT NWLY FLOW WITH GUSTS 30
TO 35 MPH...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
LOW/TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT TONIGHT WHICH WILL SHUNT THE LOW
AND RELATED PRECIP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
CLEARING BEHIND THE SYSTEM...ALONG WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL MAKE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT BY LATE MAY STANDARDS. MIN TEMPS LOW TO
MID 40S IN THE SUBURBS (WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE UPR 30S)...AROUND
50F IN URBAN AND NEAR SHORE LOCALES. WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...EXPECT
UPR 30S TO LOW 40S. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALONG AND WEST
OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WHERE LOW 30S ARE EXPECTED. DOWNSLOPING FLOW
SHOULD ACTUALLY MODERATE TEMPS AT KW99 AND KCBE OVERNIGHT. WIND
CHILLS IN THE MOUNTAINS MID TO UPR 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES OVR THE AREA FOR THE WKND. IF MEM DAY WKND IS THE
"UNOFFICIAL START OF SUMMER" THEN SUMMER IS OFF TO A PRETTY FINE
START - BUT MAYBE NOT FOR SWIMMING. I SUSPECT POOL WATER MAY BE A BIT ON
THE COOL SIDE - IF YOU GO TO OUR WEB PAGE AND LOOK AT THE TEMP
GRAPHS FOR 2013 YOU SEE THAT WE`VE HAD A FAIR AMT OF AVG OR BLO
AVG TEMPS SINCE MAR..AND THE COMING NGTS WL DO NOTHING TO HELP
WATER TEMPS.
HIGHS SAT IN THE MU60S...THEN SLOWLY WARMING TO THE M70S BY MON.
LOWS SAT NGT RANGING FM THE M30S IN THE HIGHLANDS TO A50 ON THE WRN
SHORE OF THE CHES BAY. MOST OF THE RGN WL DROP TO THE 40S SAT
NGT...THEN A LTL WARMER EACH OF THE FOLLOWING NGTS OF THE LONG
WKND.
BY TUE THE RGN WL BEGIN A WARMUP WHICH REALLY WL MAKE TEMPS FEEL
SUMMER-LK FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WK. HIGH PRES WL MOVE OFF THE
CST ALLOWING THE HEAT PUMP TO TURN BACK ON IN THE MID ATLC. TUE
SHOULD APRCH 80 FOR HIGHS...AND THEN CLIMBING A FEW DEGS EACH DAY.
BY FRI RGN SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF U80S.
NOT A LOT TO GRAB ONTO REGARDING PCPN FCST IN THE WK AHD. MOST
LKLY DURG THE 2ND HALF OF THE WK THERE`LL BE AFTN SCT CONVCTN
FORMING OVR THE MTNS.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATCHY FOG BEFORE SUNRISE WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST THROUGH
DAYBREAK. NWLY FLOW WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT. NEAR MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON UNDER AN
UPR LOW. GUSTS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT 20 TO 25 KT THOUGH CIGS WILL RISE
ABOVE 5 KFT.
IN THE XNTD VFR CNDS ARE XPCTD DURG THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME SAT-TUE.
&&
.MARINE...
NWLY FLOW WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT
AS AN UPR LOW PERSISTS OVER THE REGION AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
SCA IN EFFECT. CHANCE FOR BRIEF GALES THIS EVENING.
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS COULD XPRNC SCA LVL WINDS SUN AFTN.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ501.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ503.
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ501-503-
505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
&&
$$
PRODUCTS...BAJ/WOODY!
000
FXUS61 KPHI 240813
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
413 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST AND SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHEAST REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY NIGHT. A
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EAST IN ITS WAKE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A
BERMUDA TYPE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN START BUILDING INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COOL, DAMP, DREARY DAY IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY,
WHICH WILL FEEL MORE LIKE LATE FALL INSTEAD OF LATE SPRING. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND
MOVE OFFSHORE, BEFORE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST BY MIDDAY. TODAY WILL BE ONE OF THOSE
DAYS WHEN THE HIGH TEMPERATURE OCCURS EARLY IN MORNING, THEN BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY FALL, OR REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY. WE EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR
MOST OF THE DAY, BUT IF ANY BREAKS DO OCCUR AND THE SUN COMES OUT,
IT COULD OFFSET THE DROPPING OF THE TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY A
MAV/MET MOS BLEND WAS TAKEN, WITH A NON-DIURNAL HOURLY TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE COOL
MID/UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE TO THE EAST. AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, PRECIPITATION
WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY ACROSS OUR THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE AIRMASS WILL BE FAIRLY STABLE BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, SO WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. ALSO, PW
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DROP BEHIND THE FRONT, SO
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY LIGHT, ALTHOUGH THERE
COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL.
TODAY WILL ALSO BE A RATHER BREEZY DAY. ONCE WINDS BEGIN TO GUST
BEHIND THE FRONT, SPEEDS COULD EASILY REACH 25-30 MPH WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE MID-UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, WHILE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THERE WILL REMAIN A FAIR AMOUNT OF WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THEREFORE, SHOWERS REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, WITH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ZONES.
MAV/MET MOS GUIDANCE WERE FAIRLY CLOSE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING, SO A BLEND WAS TAKE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH GUSTS
25-30 MPH, WITH SOME POSSIBLY LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER THAN THE WRF-NMMB OVERALL. WE
DO LIKE THE WAY THE FORMER IS HANDLING THE SHARPENING OF THE TROF
IN THE GREAT LAKES, IT LOOKED CORRECTLY DEEPER THAN THE WRF-NMMB
AND PBLY WHY THE LATTER HAD A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION. DP/DTING
WITH THE OVERALL IDEA OF THE CLOSING LOW NOT DIGGING AS MUCH
(WHICH IS LOGICAL FOR LATE MAY), WE LEANED HEAVILY IN THE GFS`S
DIRECTION.
THUS ON SATURDAY WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES WE WERE
SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC. LAST NGT`S RUN BOTH LITERALLY AND
FIGURATIVELY WAS THE TROF. WE REMOVED MENTION OF PCPN CHANCES FAR
SOUTHWEST AND LOWERED POPS CENTRAL. WE KEPT LIKELY POPS SATURDAY
MORNING NORTHEAST AS THE GFS STILL SHOWED SOME FCST MID LEVEL WAA
SATURDAY MORNING AND AN EXITING TROWAL. THE ROBUST MID LEVEL QVEC
CONVERGENCE HAS DRIFTED PRACTICALLY OUT OF OUR CWA BY 12Z SATURDAY.
THE ONE ASPECT THAT HAS NOT CHANGED THOUGH WITH SATURDAY IS THE
WIND. THE GFS ESPECIALLY REMAINS FAIRLY RAMBUNCTIOUS ABOUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS TO OCCUR. THIS IS AN ODD
POSITION BECAUSE ITS NORMALLY THE WRF-NMMB`S MILIEU AND THE ECMWF
IS ASSUMING ITS USUAL MORE MUTED SOLUTION. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
COINCIDING WHERE THE PCPN AND MOST CLOUDINESS IS FORECAST. SO
WHILE THE SOUNDING SHOULD BE MORE ADIABATIC THAN TYPICAL UNDER
THOSE CIRCUMSTANCES, IT DOES CAST SOME UNCERTAINTY. FARTHER TO THE
SOUTHWEST THE OVERALL WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHTER, BUT
MIX TO A HIGHER LEVEL. ALL THAT BEING SAID, GIVEN THAT THE TREES
ARE IN FULL LEAF OUT, ONE COULD POSSIBLY HAVE ADVISORY LEVEL WIND
DAMAGE TO WEAK TREES AND LIMBS WITHOUT THE WIND CRITERIA BEING MET
GIVEN THIS LOOKS TO BE A PROLONGED WINDY PERIOD. ITS WORTH A
MENTION IN THE HWO. STAT GUIDANCE LOOKS PRETTY CLOSE AND LOOKS
REASONABLE BASED ON FCST 925MB TEMPS.
WE KEPT IN A LOW CHANCE EARLY SATURDAY EVENING FAR NORTHEAST, BUT
THE OVERALL SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST TREND DOES NOT SUPPORT KEEPING IN
POPS ANY LONGER OR FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE GRADIENT WILL STILL
BE PRESENT ON SATURDAY NIGHT, SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH
DECOUPLING. WE DID NOT SIDE WITH THE LOWER STAT GUIDANCE FOR THIS
REASON.
THE FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY STILL HAS A SLIGHT CYCLONIC LOOK TO IT
WITH SHORT WAVES STILL PASSING THROUGH. TRUE THE MODEL FORECAST
MEAN RH`S ARE EXTREMELY LOW, BUT HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN SHORT
WAVES THAN RH`S AT THIS FCST POINT AND THUS SLIGHTLY MORE
PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUDS THAN GUIDANCE WITH THE CONVECTIVE TEMP
FCST TO BE REACHED. WE DID LEAN TOWARD THE LOWER STAT GUIDANCE FOR
MAX TEMPS. FCST 850MB AND 925MB TEMPS SUGGEST BEING MORE
CONSERVATIVE AND NOT SURE IF CLIMO IS STARTING TO EXERT TOO MUCH
OF AN INFLUENCE ON MAX TEMPS. WHILE SUNDAY SHOULD ALSO BE WINDY,
THE MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 MPH LOWER.
DEPENDING UPON HOW QUICKLY THE HIGH BUILDS INTO OUR CWA, WE MIGHT
HAVE SOME FROST ISSUES FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE A CLEAR CRISP NIGHT.
MONDAY STILL LOOKING LIKE THE BEST OF THE THREE HOLIDAY WEEKEND DAYS
WITH MAX TEMPS RECOVERING CLOSER TO CLIMO LEVELS.
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE REST OF THE LONG TERM. WE LIKE THE GFS
TIMING OF WARM FRONTAL PCPN FOR TUE NIGHT AS THE ECMWF SOLUTION
HAS A LOOK OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK TO IT THAT IT PERPETUATES FROM
THE MIDWEST INTO OUR CWA LIKELY TOO FAST AND ALSO TOO FAR SOUTH.
WE KEEP THE CHANCE IN FOR WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT A BERMUDA HIGH
STARTS BUILDING WESTWARD AGAIN AND WE WILL GO FROM THE
REFRIGERATOR TO THE STOVE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MORE LOCATIONS
THAN JUST READING MAY HAVE A SHOT OF REACHING 90 DEGREES AFTER
ALL IS SAID AND DONE WITH THIS AIR MASS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
THIS MORNING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE IFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO MVFR LATER THIS MORNING AND COULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IF ANY SUN COMES OUT
AND ANY HEATING AND MIXING DOES TAKE PLACE, THAT WE COULD BREAK OUT
TO VFR LATE IN THE DAY. WE DO EXPECT ALL SITES TO BECOME VFR BY
SUNSET OR SHORTLY AFTERWARD.
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY THROUGH
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MVFR NORTHEASTERN TERMINALS AND VFR ELSEWHERE IMPROVING
TO VFR ALL. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED 30 KTS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
SATURDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. LWR CIGS/VSBYS PSBL AT NIGHT WITH WARM FRONT AND
PRECIPITATION. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR ALL OF THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, AND THE DELAWARE BAY AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME QUITE GUSTY BEHIND AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WE
STARTED THE ADVISORY ON THE DELAWARE BAY A LITTLE SOONER, AS THE
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN GUSTING AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH SHOULD BE
LATER THIS MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
WE WILL ISSUE A GALE WATCH FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. THERE
IS GROWING MODEL CONSENSUS ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE FORCE
GUSTS. LOWEST CONFIDENCE IS OFF THE DELAWARE COAST. THEN A SLOW
DECREASE IN WINDS TO SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SATURDAY
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IT MIGHT TAKE AS LONG AS SUNDAY EVENING FOR
THIS TO OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS. AFTER THAT WE ARE
OUTLOOKING SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO OCCUR FOR THE
REST OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
WE CONTINUE TO FORECAST A MODERATE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE COAST OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TODAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ430-431-450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...DELISI/ROBERTSON
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240802
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
402 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WANE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT
LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. NOT EXPECTING
SKIES TO COMPLETELY CLR OUT...WITH MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE ALOFT
FOLLOWING THE SFC FROPA. LO TEMPS TNGT IN THE LO TO MID 60S.
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FA FRI MORNING USHERING IN A COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS FROM THE NORTH. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND MIXING
DURING THE AFTN WILL CREATE WINDY CONDITIONS WITH WIND GUSTING
OVER 20MPH. THE MID LEVEL LOW SWINGS THROUGH THE MID- ATLANTIC
PROVIDING THE NECESSARY LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS.
ANY PRECIP WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURE ON FRI TO STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT WITH LOW TO MID 70S FARTHER EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND AS NWRLY
CAA FLOW CONTINUES. CONTINUED COOLER TEMPS (HIGHS IN THE LO TO MID
70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S). THIS IS ALMOST 10 DEGREES
BLO NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HV GONE CLOSE TO A ECMWF/HPC(WPC) BLEND WITH THIS PERIOD, WHICH
YIELDS ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST. GFS HAS STARTED
TO CATCH ON TO ECMWF`S SLOWER SOLUTION WRT PROGRESS OF CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST AND ATLANTIC CANADA. THIS SLOWER
SOLUTION ALLOWS FOR A SLOW WARMUP THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT WILL ALSO
ALLOW FOR CONTINUED NW FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. LOW (SLIGHT CHANCE) POPS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MEMORIAL
DAY AFTN/EVENING AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE/MID
LEVEL TROUGH DROPS ACROSS THE REGION WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE MISSOURI/LOWER OHIO VLYS.
BY MIDWEEK, THE FRONT SHUNTS NORTH OF THE AREA. MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING REBUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AS SFC HIGH
SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. RESULTANT BERMUDA
HIGH/"SUMMERLIKE" SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING TEMPS (AND
HUMIDITY VALUES) FOR THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. RAINFALL
OPPORTUNITIES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL PRIMARILY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN,
WITH LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY AND INCREASINGLY MUGGY
CONDITIONS BY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LINGERING POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS (ERY/MID) MRNG PRIOR TO CDFNT
CROSSING THE RGN. WIDESPREAD VFR CIGS (3-6KFT) (AND WINDSHIFT TO
NNW AND BECOMING GUSTY TO 25-30 KT) XPCD POST CDFNT AND AS
MID/UPR LVL TROUGH CROSSES THE RGN TDA (LT MRNG THROUGH AFTN).
WINDSPEEDS SUBSIDE TNGT...THEN BECOME GUSTY AGN ON SAT (W/ VFR
CONDS CONTG). LESS WIND AND GENLY SKC SUN.
&&
.MARINE...
CONDS GENLY BLO SCA ATTM. WNDS STARTING OFF WSW ERY/MID MRNG PRIOR
TO CDFNTL PASSAGE LTR THIS MRNG. WATCHING SFC PRES RISES (AND
ASSOCIATED GUSTY WNDS TO ABT 25 KT) FM WRN NY TO OH RVR VLY) AND
XPCD THAT TO ARRIVE W/ THE CDFNTL PASSAGE AFT 12-15Z/24. WINDSHIFT
TO NNW AND INCRS IN SPDS (DUE TO MDT LLVL CAA) TO SOLID SCAS (20-30
KT). OCNL GUSTS TO/ABV GALE (35KT) PSBL ON THE OCN...WILL HOLD OFF
ON ANY GALE WARNING FOR NOW THOUGH AS PROB RMNS LO. THESE CONDS TO
LAST THROUGH SAT AS CSTL LO PRES (OFFSHR) IS SLO TO DVLP BEFORE
MOVING NE ACRS ERN NEW ENG ON SUN. GFS/ECMWF RMN IN OVERALL
AGREEMENT OVR DVLPMNT AND LOCATION OF THAT STM OFF NJ/SRN NEW ENG
TNGT INTO SAT. SLO/GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT (LASTLY OVR THE NRN OCN WTRS)
BY 2ND PART OF THE WKND.
WILL START ALL HEADLINES (SCAS) W/ NEW PACKAGE...AND CONT THROUGH
SAT AFTN/ERY SAT NGT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ633-
635>638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...DAP
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB
000
FXUS61 KLWX 240758
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
358 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RESIDE OVER THE
AREA TODAY...AND THEN CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 07Z...COLD ANAFRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC. PRECIP
HAS PUSHED TO THE ERN SHORE WITH LIGHT WLY FLOW ACROSS THE BALT-WASH
METRO...GUSTY NWLY FLOW OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...WITH LIGHT
PRECIP AND COOLER CONDITIONS OVER THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. AN UPR
TROUGH AXIS IS EVIDENT AS THE BACK EDGE OF A CLOUD SHIELD OVER NWRN
OH. THE COLD FRONT AND UPR TROUGH/DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED UPR LOW
WILL SWING EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC TODAY.
THIS COLD CORE TROUGH/LOW WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT NWLY FLOW WITH GUSTS 30
TO 35 MPH...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
LOW/TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT TONIGHT WHICH WILL SHUNT THE LOW
AND RELATED PRECIP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
CLEARING BEHIND THE SYSTEM...ALONG WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL MAKE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT BY LATE MAY STANDARDS. MIN TEMPS LOW TO
MID 40S IN THE SUBURBS (WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE UPR 30S)...AROUND
50F IN URBAN AND NEAR SHORE LOCALES. WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...EXPECT
UPR 30S TO LOW 40S. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALONG AND WEST
OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WHERE LOW 30S ARE EXPECTED. DOWNSLOPING FLOW
SHOULD ACTUALLY MODERATE TEMPS AT KW99 AND KCBE OVERNIGHT. WIND
CHILLS IN THE MOUNTAINS MID TO UPR 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES OVR THE AREA FOR THE WKND. IF MEM DAY WKND IS THE
"UNOFFICIAL START OF SUMMER" THEN SUMMER IS OFF TO A PRETTY FINE
START - BUT MAYBE NOT FOR SWIMMING. I SUSPECT POOL WATER MAY BE A BIT ON
THE COOL SIDE - IF YOU GO TO OUR WEB PAGE AND LOOK AT THE TEMP
GRAPHS FOR 2013 YOU SEE THAT WE`VE HAD A FAIR AMT OF AVG OR BLO
AVG TEMPS SINCE MAR..AND THE COMING NGTS WL DO NOTHING TO HELP
WATER TEMPS.
HIGHS SAT IN THE MU60S...THEN SLOWLY WARMING TO THE M70S BY MON.
LOWS SAT NGT RANGING FM THE M30S IN THE HIGHLANDS TO A50 ON THE WRN
SHORE OF THE CHES BAY. MOST OF THE RGN WL DROP TO THE 40S SAT
NGT...THEN A LTL WARMER EACH OF THE FOLLOWING NGTS OF THE LONG
WKND.
BY TUE THE RGN WL BEGIN A WARMUP WHICH REALLY WL MAKE TEMPS FEEL
SUMMER-LK FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WK. HIGH PRES WL MOVE OFF THE
CST ALLOWING THE HEAT PUMP TO TURN BACK ON IN THE MID ATLC. TUE
SHOULD APRCH 80 FOR HIGHS...AND THEN CLIMBING A FEW DEGS EACH DAY.
BY FRI RGN SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF U80S.
NOT A LOT TO GRAB ONTO REGARDING PCPN FCST IN THE WK AHD. MOST
LKLY DURG THE 2ND HALF OF THE WK THERE`LL BE AFTN SCT CONVCTN
FORMING OVR THE MTNS.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATCHY FOG BEFORE SUNRISE WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST THROUGH
DAYBREAK. NWLY FLOW WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT. NEAR MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON UNDER AN
UPR LOW. GUSTS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT 20 TO 25 KT THOUGH CIGS WILL RISE
ABOVE 5 KFT.
IN THE XNTD VFR CNDS ARE XPCTD DURG THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME SAT-TUE.
&&
.MARINE...
NWLY FLOW WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT
AS AN UPR LOW PERSISTS OVER THE REGION AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
SCA IN EFFECT. CHANCE FOR BRIEF GALES THIS EVENING.
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS COULD XPRNC SCA LVL WINDS SUN AFTN.
&&
.FLOODING...
WE ARE WATCHING THE SENECA CRK AT DAWSONVILLE. DUAL POL ESITAMTED
OVR 3" OF RAIN IN NRN MONT/WRN HOWARD. CRK HAS RESPONDED BY RISING
FM 2 FT TO OVR 6 FT..WHICH IS OVR A FT BLO MINOR FLD STAGE. WE/MARFC
WL KEEP OUR EYES ON THIS.
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
&&
$$
PRODUCTS...BAJ/WOODY!
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240758
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
358 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHWRS CONT TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE IN THE WAKE OF LAST EVES CDFNT
AND PCPN FORECAST HAS THUS BEEN ADJUSTED FOR THE LATEST OBS AND
RADAR TRENDS. IN GENL...SHWR AREA TO THE EAST OF PITTSBURGH WL
PROGRESS AND SCT THROUGH THE MRNG AS COLDER AIR FLOWS OVR THE
REGION UNDR A RELATIVELY LOW INVERSION LVL. THAT PTN WL WL
MAINTAIN SOME STRATOCU TDA...BUT OVRALL DRYING WL HERALD REDUCED
CLD COVER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
INITIAL TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING OB-TWEAKED LAMP GUIDANCE WHILE
TNGTS COLD READINGS WERE A RESULT OF A GFS MOS AND NAM BLEND. FOR
THE RIDGES AND AREAS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH...SUSTAINED WIND SHOULD
PRECLUDE FROST...BUT COLD ADVCTN IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO
SPPRT A FREEZE. HENCE...A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN INCLUDED WITH
THIS MRNGS PACKAGE.
FOR COUNTIES WEST AND SOUTH OF PIT...WIND MAY DIE VIA DECOUPLING
AND DIMINISHED PRES GRADIENT WITH THE HIGH SETTLING TOWARD THE MID
OHIO VALLEY...SO HAVE OPTED FOR A FROST ADVISORY IN COLLABORATION
WITH THE NEIGHBORS...BUT DAY SHIFT WL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR A
DEGRADE/UPGRADE TO A FREEZE WARNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY SFC HIGH PRES UNDR NW FLOW ALOFT WL MAINTAIN COLD TEMPS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT READINGS OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES UNDR THE
AVERAGES WITH FROST POTENTIAL AGAIN ON SATURDAY NGT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN DRY WEA UNTIL A WARM FRONT
INCREASES PCPN CHCS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. INITIALLY COLD TEMPS
WL MODERATE TO...AND THEN ABOVE SEASONAL LVLS AS SLY FLOW RESUMES
BY MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EARLY MRNG IFR AND MVFR ST AND STRATOCU CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH DRY ADVCTN GRADUALLY INCRSG T/DP
SPREADS DESPITE COLD FLOW. WIND GUSTS TO ABOUT 22 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED
IN THE SHALLOW MIXING REGIME. THAT POTENTIAL WL CEASE WITH
DECOUPLING THIS EVE.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WL MAINTAIN VFR THROUGH EARLY NXT WEEK.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ020-021-
029-031-073-075.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
013>016-022-023-074-076.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ001>004-
012-021-022.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ023-041.
&&
$$
15
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240637
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
237 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SHOWERS ARE WANING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS PUSHING ACROSS THE MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE AIDED
BY LIFT PROVIDED BY A GUST FRONT. EXPECT HEAVY RAIN, LIGHTNING AND
WIND GUSTS TO ~35MPH WITH THIS LINE. STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS GUST
FRONT INTERACTION ENDS. LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA. NOT EXPECTING SKIES TO COMPLETELY CLR OUT...WITH MOISTURE
STILL IN PLACE ALOFT FOLLOWING THE SFC FROPA. LO TEMPS TNGT IN THE
LO TO MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AFOREMENTIONED MID-LVL TROF SLIDES THRU THE MID ATLANTIC FRI
AFTN...AND WITH DECENT MOISTURE STILL FROM 950-700 MB WILL
MAINTAIN A 20-30% CHC FOR SHWRS ALONG AND EAST OF I-95.
OVERALL...EXPECT A DRYING TREND AS THE TROF PULLS OFFSHORE AND
STRONG CAA WORKS INTO THE AREA. A PRTLY CLDY SKY IN THE AFTN WITH
NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS...HIGHS ONLY IN THE LO TO MID 70S.
SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND AS NWRLY
CAA FLOW CONTINUES. CONTINUED COOLER TEMPS (HIGHS IN THE LO TO MID
70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S). THIS IS ALMOST 10 DEGREES
BLO NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HV GONE CLOSE TO A ECMWF/HPC(WPC) BLEND WITH THIS PERIOD, WHICH
YIELDS ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST. GFS HAS STARTED
TO CATCH ON TO ECMWF`S SLOWER SOLUTION WRT PROGRESS OF CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST AND ATLANTIC CANADA. THIS SLOWER
SOLUTION ALLOWS FOR A SLOW WARMUP THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT WILL ALSO
ALLOW FOR CONTINUED NW FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. LOW (SLIGHT CHANCE) POPS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MEMORIAL
DAY AFTN/EVENING AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE/MID
LEVEL TROUGH DROPS ACROSS THE REGION WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE MISSOURI/LOWER OHIO VLYS.
BY MIDWEEK, THE FRONT SHUNTS NORTH OF THE AREA. MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING REBUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AS SFC HIGH
SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. RESULTANT BERMUDA
HIGH/"SUMMERLIKE" SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING TEMPS (AND
HUMIDITY VALUES) FOR THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. RAINFALL
OPPORTUNITIES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL PRIMARILY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN,
WITH LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY AND INCREASINGLY MUGGY
CONDITIONS BY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LINGERING POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS (ERY/MID) MRNG PRIOR TO CDFNT
CROSSING THE RGN. WIDESPREAD VFR CIGS (3-6KFT) (AND WINDSHIFT TO
NNW AND BECOMING GUSTY TO 25-30 KT) XPCD POST CDFNT AND AS
MID/UPR LVL TROUGH CROSSES THE RGN TDA (LT MRNG THROUGH AFTN).
WINDSPEEDS SUBSIDE TNGT...THEN BECOME GUSTY AGN ON SAT (W/ VFR
CONDS CONTG). LESS WIND AND GENLY SKC SUN.
&&
.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT GENERAL S-SW FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
EVENING. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH AS EXPECTED IN THE BAY AND
SOUND...AND HV DROPPED SCA OVERNIGHT WITH LULL IN SCA CONDITIONS
STILL EXPECTED. SCAS NOW HAVE BEEN HOISTED AFTER 14Z/FRIDAY WITH
MOD CAA (15-25KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT).
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT W/ DEVELOPMNT/LOCATION OF LOW PRESSURE OFF
NJ/SRN NEW ENG COAST FRI NGT INTO SAT. THE LOW WL BE SLOW TO LIFT TO
THE NE SUN INTO MON...RESULTING IN ONLY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT (SCA PER
WAVEWATCH POTENTIALLY TO LINGER OVR THE NRN OCN WTRS INTO LATE SAT).
AS PER POLICY WL AVOID "DOUBLE HEADLINE" ISSUANCE, BUT ADDITIONAL
SCA FLAGS WILL BE NECESSARY IN THE CHES BAY AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS AFTER CURRENT HEADLINES EXPIRE. PERIOD OF SCA WL BE FOR LATE
FRI MORNING/AFTN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME SUB-SCA
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AOB 15KT SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDYA AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ633-
635>638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAM/DAP
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...MAM
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240514
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
114 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHWRS CONT TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE IN THE WAKE OF THE EVE CDFNT
AND PCPN FORECAST HAS BEEN REDUCED TO SCT COVERAGE INTO...AND
THROUGH THE MRNG AS COLDER AIR FLOWS OVR THE REGION UNDR A
RELATIVELY LOW INVERSION LLVL. THAT PTN WL WL MAINTAIN SOME
STRATOCU TDA...BUT OVRALL DRYING WL HERALD REDUCED CLD COVER AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES.
INTIAL TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING OBS-TWEAKED LAMP GUIDANCE WHILE
TNGTS COLD READINGS WERE A RESULT OF SREF MEANS. FOR NOW...HAVE
FORECASTED LOW TO MID 30S...BUT WITHOUT FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES
GIVEN A LACK OF DURATION OF SUB 32 READINGS...AND EXPECTATIONS OF
SUFFICIENT WIND TO PRECLUDE HEAVY FROST FORMATIONS OUTSIDE OF
SHELTERED AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY SFC HIGH PRES UNDR NW FLOW ALOFT WL MAINTAIN COLD TEMPS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT READINGS OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES UNDR THE
AVERAGES WITH FROST POTENTIAL AGAIN ON SATURDAY NGT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN DRY WEA UNTIL A WARM FRONT
INCREASES PCPN CHCS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. INITIALLY COLD TEMPS
WL MODERATE TO...AND THEN ABOVE SEASONAL LVLS AS SLY FLOW RESUMES
BY MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EARLY MRNG IFR AND MVFR ST AND STRATOCU CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH DRY ADVCTN GRADUALLY INCRSG T/DP
SPREADS DESPITE COLD FLOW. WIND GUSTS TO ABOUT 22 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED
IN THE SHALLOW MIXING REGIME. THAT POTENTIAL WL CEASE WITH
DECOUPLING THIS EVE.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WL MAINTAIN VFR THROUGH EARLY NXT WEEK.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
15
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240511
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
111 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SHOWERS ARE WANING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS PUSHING ACROSS THE MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE AIDED
BY LIFT PROVIDED BY A GUST FRONT. EXPECT HEAVY RAIN, LIGHTNING AND
WIND GUSTS TO ~35MPH WITH THIS LINE. STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS GUST
FRONT INTERACTION ENDS. LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA. NOT EXPECTING SKIES TO COMPLETELY CLR OUT...WITH MOISTURE
STILL IN PLACE ALOFT FOLLOWING THE SFC FROPA. LO TEMPS TNGT IN THE
LO TO MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AFOREMENTIONED MID-LVL TROF SLIDES THRU THE MID ATLANTIC FRI
AFTN...AND WITH DECENT MOISTURE STILL FROM 950-700 MB WILL
MAINTAIN A 20-30% CHC FOR SHWRS ALONG AND EAST OF I-95.
OVERALL...EXPECT A DRYING TREND AS THE TROF PULLS OFFSHORE AND
STRONG CAA WORKS INTO THE AREA. A PRTLY CLDY SKY IN THE AFTN WITH
NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS...HIGHS ONLY IN THE LO TO MID 70S.
SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND AS NWRLY
CAA FLOW CONTINUES. CONTINUED COOLER TEMPS (HIGHS IN THE LO TO MID
70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S). THIS IS ALMOST 10 DEGREES
BLO NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HV GONE CLOSE TO A ECMWF/HPC(WPC) BLEND WITH THIS PERIOD, WHICH
YIELDS ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST. GFS HAS STARTED
TO CATCH ON TO ECMWF`S SLOWER SOLUTION WRT PROGRESS OF CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST AND ATLANTIC CANADA. THIS SLOWER
SOLUTION ALLOWS FOR A SLOW WARMUP THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT WILL ALSO
ALLOW FOR CONTINUED NW FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. LOW (SLIGHT CHANCE) POPS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MEMORIAL
DAY AFTN/EVENING AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE/MID
LEVEL TROUGH DROPS ACROSS THE REGION WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE MISSOURI/LOWER OHIO VLYS.
BY MIDWEEK, THE FRONT SHUNTS NORTH OF THE AREA. MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING REBUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AS SFC HIGH
SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. RESULTANT BERMUDA
HIGH/"SUMMERLIKE" SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING TEMPS (AND
HUMIDITY VALUES) FOR THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. RAINFALL
OPPORTUNITIES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL PRIMARILY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN,
WITH LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY AND INCREASINGLY MUGGY
CONDITIONS BY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG A LEE SIDE TROUGH OVER CNTRL VA/NE NC THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...LOCATED OVER THE
OH/TN VALLEYS AS OF 2 PM EDT. VFR/MVFR CIGS AS LOW AS 1500 TO
2500 FT AGL...WITH LOCALIZED IFR CIGS OVER THE LOWER ERN
SHORE...WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON. S WINDS GENERALLY 10 KT WITH
A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD MOSTLY BE
CONFINED TO INLAND VA AND NC DURING AFTERNOON HEATING. ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS MORE STABLE NEAR THE COAST DUE TO EARLIER SHOWERS AND
CLOUD COVER. MAIN IMPACTS TO AVIATION OPERATIONS WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL (MVFR/IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE) AND GUSTY WINDS.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...BUT EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT.
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...CLEARING THE COAST EARLY
FRI MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW POST FRONTAL FRI
MORNING AND FRI AFTERNOON. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDS FRI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT GENERAL S-SW FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
EVENING. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH AS EXPECTED IN THE BAY AND
SOUND...AND HV DROPPED SCA OVERNIGHT WITH LULL IN SCA CONDITIONS
STILL EXPECTED. SCAS NOW HAVE BEEN HOISTED AFTER 14Z/FRIDAY WITH
MOD CAA (15-25KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT).
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT W/ DEVELOPMNT/LOCATION OF LOW PRESSURE OFF
NJ/SRN NEW ENG COAST FRI NGT INTO SAT. THE LOW WL BE SLOW TO LIFT TO
THE NE SUN INTO MON...RESULTING IN ONLY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT (SCA PER
WAVEWATCH POTENTIALLY TO LINGER OVR THE NRN OCN WTRS INTO LATE SAT).
AS PER POLICY WL AVOID "DOUBLE HEADLINE" ISSUANCE, BUT ADDITIONAL
SCA FLAGS WILL BE NECESSARY IN THE CHES BAY AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS AFTER CURRENT HEADLINES EXPIRE. PERIOD OF SCA WL BE FOR LATE
FRI MORNING/AFTN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME SUB-SCA
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AOB 15KT SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDYA AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR ANZ635-636-638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
654-656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAM/DAP
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...MAM
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240227
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1027 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF MAIN COLD FRONT JUST PUSHING
INTO WESTERN COUNTIES. STORMS GENERALLY REMAIN SUB SVR WITH
INSTABILITY OF THE DAY RAPIDLY DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF PEAK
HEATING A FEW HRS AGO. SHRAS WILL QUICKLY PUSH ACROSS FROM WEST
TO EAST OVRNGT/ERY FRI MRNG AS THE COLD FRNT CROSSES THE AREA. A
FEW GUSTS TO 30-40 KT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ITS PASSAGE, NOT
EXPECTING SKIES TO COMPLETELY CLR OUT...WITH MOISTURE STILL IN
PLACE ALOFT FOLLOWING THE SFC FROPA. LO TEMPS TNGT IN THE LO TO
MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AFOREMENTIONED MID-LVL TROF SLIDES THRU THE MID ATLANTIC FRI
AFTN...AND WITH DECENT MOISTURE STILL FROM 950-700 MB WILL
MAINTAIN A 20-30% CHC FOR SHWRS ALONG AND EAST OF I-95.
OVERALL...EXPECT A DRYING TREND AS THE TROF PULLS OFFSHORE AND
STRONG CAA WORKS INTO THE AREA. A PRTLY CLDY SKY IN THE AFTN WITH
NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS...HIGHS ONLY IN THE LO TO MID 70S.
SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND AS NWRLY
CAA FLOW CONTINUES. CONTINUED COOLER TEMPS (HIGHS IN THE LO TO MID
70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S). THIS IS ALMOST 10 DEGREES
BLO NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HV GONE CLOSE TO A ECMWF/HPC(WPC) BLEND WITH THIS PERIOD, WHICH
YIELDS ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST. GFS HAS STARTED
TO CATCH ON TO ECMWF`S SLOWER SOLUTION WRT PROGRESS OF CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST AND ATLANTIC CANADA. THIS SLOWER
SOLUTION ALLOWS FOR A SLOW WARMUP THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT WILL ALSO
ALLOW FOR CONTINUED NW FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. LOW (SLIGHT CHANCE) POPS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MEMORIAL
DAY AFTN/EVENING AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE/MID
LEVEL TROUGH DROPS ACROSS THE REGION WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE MISSOURI/LOWER OHIO VLYS.
BY MIDWEEK, THE FRONT SHUNTS NORTH OF THE AREA. MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING REBUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AS SFC HIGH
SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. RESULTANT BERMUDA
HIGH/"SUMMERLIKE" SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING TEMPS (AND
HUMIDITY VALUES) FOR THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. RAINFALL
OPPORTUNITIES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL PRIMARILY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN,
WITH LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY AND INCREASINGLY MUGGY
CONDITIONS BY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG A LEE SIDE TROUGH OVER CNTRL VA/NE NC THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...LOCATED OVER THE
OH/TN VALLEYS AS OF 2 PM EDT. VFR/MVFR CIGS AS LOW AS 1500 TO
2500 FT AGL...WITH LOCALIZED IFR CIGS OVER THE LOWER ERN
SHORE...WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON. S WINDS GENERALLY 10 KT WITH
A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD MOSTLY BE
CONFINED TO INLAND VA AND NC DURING AFTERNOON HEATING. ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS MORE STABLE NEAR THE COAST DUE TO EARLIER SHOWERS AND
CLOUD COVER. MAIN IMPACTS TO AVIATION OPERATIONS WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL (MVFR/IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE) AND GUSTY WINDS.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...BUT EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT.
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...CLEARING THE COAST EARLY
FRI MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW POST FRONTAL FRI
MORNING AND FRI AFTERNOON. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDS FRI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT GENERAL S-SW FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
EVENING. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH AS EXPECTED IN THE BAY AND
SOUND...AND HV DROPPED SCA OVERNIGHT WITH LULL IN SCA CONDITIONS
STILL EXPECTED. SCAS NOW HAVE BEEN HOISTED AFTER 14Z/FRIDAY WITH
MOD CAA (15-25KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT).
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT W/ DEVELOPMNT/LOCATION OF LOW PRESSURE OFF
NJ/SRN NEW ENG COAST FRI NGT INTO SAT. THE LOW WL BE SLOW TO LIFT TO
THE NE SUN INTO MON...RESULTING IN ONLY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT (SCA PER
WAVEWATCH POTENTIALLY TO LINGER OVR THE NRN OCN WTRS INTO LATE SAT).
AS PER POLICY WL AVOID "DOUBLE HEADLINE" ISSUANCE, BUT ADDITIONAL
SCA FLAGS WILL BE NECESSARY IN THE CHES BAY AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS AFTER CURRENT HEADLINES EXPIRE. PERIOD OF SCA WL BE FOR LATE
FRI MORNING/AFTN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME SUB-SCA
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AOB 15KT SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDYA AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR ANZ635-636-638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY
FOR ANZ630>634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
654-656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...MAM
000
FXUS61 KPHI 240153
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
953 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OFF THE NEW JERSEY
COAST FRIDAY AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST REACHING THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EAST IN ITS
WAKE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THUNDERSTORMS WERE INTO EASTERN PA, NORTHWEST NJ AND THE MD
EASTERN SHORE LATE THIS EVENING. THEY WERE RUNNING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT THAT WAS EXPECTED TO ENTER OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES BY
MIDNIGHT. SURFACE BASED CAPES WERE SHOWING STABLE AIR ADVANCING
FROM THE ATLANTIC TO MEET THE ACTIVITY SOMEWHERE AROUND THE
DELAWARE VALLEY. THE MAIN CHANGE (OTHER THAN TO MAKE A NOWCAST IN
THE VERY NEAR TERM GRIDS) WAS TO BACK OFF A BIT ON THE
STRENGTH/POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER AS ONE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THE ATLANTIC. FOR THE WESTERN AND PERHAPS
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA, THE THUNDER, HEAVY RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS STILL LOOK ON TARGET. TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY
LEFT ALONE, EXCEPT WE HAD TO NUDGE DOWN THE HOURLIES FOR A COUPLE
OF HOURS ALONG THE COAST THANKS TO THE INTRUSION OF STABLE AIR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
EARLY FRIDAY, A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE JUST EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA, CONTINUING TO SLOWLY PROGRESS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
DAY. MEANWHILE, A MID LEVEL LOW WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY, AND WE HAVE KEPT CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY, WITH GUSTS REACHING AROUND 25 MPH. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL BE FILTERING IN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC, AND MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN IN RECENT DAYS, WITH
HIGHS MAINLY FROM THE LOWER 60S FOR OUR NORTHWEST AREAS TO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S IN SOUTHERN NJ AND THE DELMARVA.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF IS SLOW TO EXIT.
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS MEANS THAT SATURDAY, WHICH LOOKED LIKE A NICE
WX DAY EARLIER IN THE WEEK DOESN`T LOOK NEARLY AS NICE ATTM. THERE
WILL BE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MRNG. THEN, CONDS WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HOWEVER, THERE WILL STILL BE AN
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND DECENT NWLY FLOW UNTIL THE LOW CLEARS THE
AREA. THE BEST CHC OF PRECIP LOOKS TO BE OVER NERN AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW AND THIS
WILL KEEP A DECENT NWLY FLOW SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. HOWEVER, OVERALL
CONDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AND CERTAINLY BY SUN THERE WILL BE
MORE SUNSHINE WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO MON.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE EWD AND OFF THE CST BY TUE AS A WMFNT
APPROACHES AND THEN PASSES THRU THE REGION AND THEN A STRONG RIDGE
ALOFT BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. POPS WILL BE INTRODUCED TO
THE FCST AROUND TUE INTO WED WITH THE WMFNT.
TEMPS WILL BE MUCH BELOW NRML SAT, IN SOME CASES 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NRML....THEN TEMPS REBOUND A BIT ON SUN AND MON
BEFORE RISING TO ABV NRML VALUES BY WED.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
WE FORECAST THUNDER FOR THE NORTHWESTERN SITES WITH SOME GUSTY
WINDS (AROUND 30 KNOTS) LATE THIS EVENING. WE FORECAST THUNDER
THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT BUT DO NOT PLAY UP THE WINDS OVER THE
DELAWARE VALLEY SITES. WE HAVE KEPT THE THUNDER OUT OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN SITES BECAUSE OF THE STABLE AIR AND LOW CLOUDS THAT
HAVE MOVED IN. IF ANY THUNDER OCCURS THERE, IT SHOULD BE ELEVATED.
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WE EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER TO IFR
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MAINLY OUT OF
THE SOUTH UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA, AND THEN
THERE SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY PLACID SHIFT IN THE WINDS TO WEST.
FRIDAY...IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BEGIN THE DAY, WITH IMPROVEMENT
TO MVFR EXPECTED BY MID-MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
AND THEN BECOME RATHER GUSTY BY MID-MORNING, WITH GUSTS IN THE 20
TO 30 KNOT RANGE EXPECTED THEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT NORTHEASTERN
TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS. CONDITIONS COULD IMPROVE AS SATURDAY
CONTINUES. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED 20 KTS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF IMPROVING CONDS.
SAT NIGHT THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR. SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUE...MAINLY VFR. LWR CIGS/VSBYS PSBL LATER IN THE DAY WITH WARM
FRONT AND RAIN. MDT CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT NEARING THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT, WE MAINTAIN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS,
WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE AND SEAS AROUND 5 FEET.
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE DURING FRIDAY MORNING, WINDS WILL
TURN AND BECOME NORTHWESTERLY FOR OUR WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. WIND
GUSTS WILL PICK UP INTO THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE, WITH SEAS AROUND 5
TO 6 FEET FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS. IN ADDITION, WE HAVE RAISED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR DELAWARE BAY STARTING 18Z FRIDAY, AS WIND
GUSTS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH CRITERIA DURING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
THE SCA FLAG HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO SAT MRNG AND MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER. ALSO, HAVE EXPANDED SCA TO INCLUDE
DEL BAY. WITH THE LOW OFF THE COAST AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN, THERE WILL BE STRENGTHENING NWLY FLOW THRU SAT SEAS
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND THE WIND WILL HIT SCA AS WELL. SOME GUID
IS EVEN INDICATING GALE POTENTIAL ON SAT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ENOUGH ON THAT ATTM THAT NO HEADLINES WERE ISSUED. AFTER ABOUT
SUNDAY MORNING. AFTER NO ADDITIONAL MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED
THRU THE PD.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
WE FORECAST A MODERATE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
COAST OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE ON FRIDAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...KLINE/DELISI
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...KLINE/NIERENBERG/DELISI
MARINE...KLINE/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...DELISI
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240120
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
920 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. MUCH COOLER AND DRY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT NOW THROUGH KPIT AND BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE TOWARD
THE RIDGES. UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS DOWN WEST OF PITTSBURGH AS ONLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS BEHIND FRONT IN COLD ADVECTION. REMOVED ANY
MENTION OF THUNDER AS INSTABILITY IS NOW TOO LOW. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL FLOOD INTO THE REGION WITH SHOWER CHANCES
DECREASING AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
ON FRIDAY RATHER COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP A FEW SHOWERS IN
THE RIDGES OTHERWISE MUCH DRIER AIR AND COLD ADVECTION AT 850 MB
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH BELOW NORMAL. SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION BY LATE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLDER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY INVADE THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DEW POINTS RAPIDLY DECREASING THROUGH THE 40S
AND INTO THE LOWER 30S AND UPPER 20S BY SATURDAY MORNING. AS WIND
BACKS OFF FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES...CLEAR
SKIES WILL RESULT IN SUPERIOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS
SUCH...WIDESPREAD FROST IS LIKELY AND LOCAL FREEZING CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER SPOTS.
WITH LITTLE OVERALL PATTERN EVOLUTION FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SIMILAR RH PROFILES AND WIND PROFILES...YET
ANOTHER FROSTY NIGHT IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. BY
SUNDAY...SLIGHTLY WARMER 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND A TINY BIT OF
MIXING MAY ALLOW HIGHS TO START TO STRUGGLE UP MORE INTO THE 60S
RATHER THAN STRADDLING 60F ITSELF. FRIES
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY WEA IS EXPD THRU THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. A
WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE DISTRICT FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
WL START OUT BLO AVG OVR THE WEEKEND...THEN MODERATE TO SEASONAL
LVLS AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS E OF THE AREA AND FLOW TURNS SRLY.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH GENERAL VFR
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR
AS STRATUS DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT. AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW.
.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH REMAINING STRATUS THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY...BUT BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY RETURN PORTS TO
VFR CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GENERAL VFR WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KLWX 240108
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
908 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THEN CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. A WARM
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CDFNT IN/NEAR THE SHEN VLY ATTM. AFTER AN AFTN WHERE STORMS WERE
SCTD AND LACKED ORGANIZATION...FINALLY HV A CONCENTRATED STRUCTURE
TO WORK OFF OF. HWVR...W/ LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WE/RE LOSING
WHAT SEVERITY WE HAD. CENTRAL VA HAS BEEN LARGELY UNTAPPED...AND
XPCT TSRA TO HV MORE LIFE THERE. ELSW...THE HVY RAFL WL BE THE
BIGGER IMPACT. LWX RAOB DEMONSTRATES THIS PREMISE...W/ MORE CINH
THAN CAPE AND 1.33 INCH PWAT. WL KEEP POPS HIGH TIL FROPA...THEN
SCALE BACK. WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST OCCURS BEHIND THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT...AND DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE WITH COOLER AIR
MOVING IN FOR FRIDAY.
FRIDAY WILL CERTAINLY FEEL LIKE A DIFFERENT DAY WITH MAXIMA
RELUCTANT TO RISE MUCH DURING THE DAY WITH LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION AT PLAY AND AN UPPER LOW OVERHEAD. MAXIMA IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S CAN BE EXPECTED. DECENT GRADIENT WITH COLD ADVECTION
WILL BRING A WINDY DAY...WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY OVER 35 MPH AT TIMES.
WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND ALSO
SCATTERED SHOWERS PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE STRONGER WIND GUSTS AND ALSO CAN/T RULE
OUT SOME SMALL HAIL DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LOW DRIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS STAY UP
FRIDAY NIGHT...SO NO FROST IS EXPECTED. BUT TEMPERATURES COULD
DROP CLOSE TO FREEZING OVER THE HIGHLANDS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER WINDY AND COOL DAY IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY ALTHOUGH SOME
SUNSHINE SHOULD MAKE A RETURN. MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
H5 RISES THROUGH ENTIRE LONG TERM AS BERMUDA HIGH STARTS SETTING UP
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH WARM FRONT PASSAGE LIKELY ON
TUESDAY PER 12Z GFS. MONDAY APPEARS STABLE WITH LITTLE OR NO MODEL
CAPE. ON TUESDAY...INSTABILITY STARTS TO WORK INTO THE SHEN VALLEY
WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS
ENTIRE CWA.
MAX TEMPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE AROUND CLIMO...THEN INCREASING UP
TO 10 DEG ABV CLIMO WITH MAX TEMPS APPROACHING 90 WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHRA/TSRA IN METRO BALT AND DOWN THE SHEN VLY. FLGT RESTRICTIONS
ATTM GNLY MVFR...ALTHO CUD HV LCL IFR W/IN SHRA/TSRA. THERE MAY BE
A FEW SHRA THEREAFTER...AS WELL AS OCNL MVFR CIGS. CUD BE
CONTENDING W/ A LTL FOG AS WELL TIL FROPA.
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT.
COOLER/DRIER AIR WL TAKE CARE OF ANY RESIDUAL FOG. EXPECT GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ON FRIDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT MAY
PRODUCE GUSTIER WINDS.
STRONG NWLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE UPR LOW
REMAINS IN THE REGION AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. VFR EARLY NEXT
WEEK IN A CANADIAN AIRMASS BEFORE A MIDWEEK WARM FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
ASIDE FM DRUM PT-SMITH PT AND ADJACENT TANGIER SOUND...WINDS HVNT
REALLY BEEN REACHING SCA CRIT. EVEN IN THE MID BAY...SPDS STARTING
TO SUBSIDE. WL ALLOW SCA TO EXPIRE AT 10 PM. THAT/S NOT TO SAY
THERE WONT BE GUSTY WINDS...BUT THEY WL BE ASSOCD W/ SHRA AND TSRA
CROSSING ALONG AND AHEAD OF CDFNT. ANTICIPATE SPECIAL MARINE
WARNINGS WL BE REQD OVNGT.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHWEST. THESE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON FRIDAY...FOR A
SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. MAY EVEN FLIRT WITH GALES DUE TO
GRADIENT EFFECTS ALONE. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY
PRODUCE STRONGER WIND GUSTS.
NWLY FLOW WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN UPR LOW
PERSIST OVER THE REGION AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. MORE
TRANQUIL WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER A CANADIAN AIRMASS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES RUNNING 1/2 FT ABOVE NORMAL TNGT. NO COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT...BRINGING A RETURN TO NORMAL AT A
MINIMUM...AND MORE LIKELY BLOW OUT CONDS.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ531>534-537>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
ANZ530>543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...HTS/BPP
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...HTS/BPP/BAJ
MARINE...HTS/BPP/BAJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 232342
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
742 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO SHOWERS AND
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES...AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED STORMS ARE SLOWLY WEAKENING ACROSS REGION AS LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY WANES. LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST OTHER THAN TO
ADJUST POPS AND SKY TOWARD CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. ONLY SHOWERS BY 9
PM OR SO WITH STRONG SECONDARY COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO.
WEAK WAVE NEAR WHEELING WILL PUSH NORTHEAST AND ALLOW FRONT TO
SWEEP THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL ABRUPTLY TURN NORTHWEST
AND GUST THROUGH THE NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
FLOOD INTO THE REGION WITH SHOWER CHANCES DECREASING TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.
ON FRIDAY RATHER COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP A FEW SHOWERS IN
THE RIDGES OTHERWISE MUCH DRIER AIR AND COLD ADVECTION AT 850 MB
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH BELOW NORMAL. SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION BY LATE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLDER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY INVADE THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DEW POINTS RAPIDLY DECREASING THROUGH THE 40S
AND INTO THE LOWER 30S AND UPPER 20S BY SATURDAY MORNING. AS WIND
BACKS OFF FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES...CLEAR
SKIES WILL RESULT IN SUPERIOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS
SUCH...WIDESPREAD FROST IS LIKELY AND LOCAL FREEZING CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER SPOTS.
WITH LITTLE OVERALL PATTERN EVOLUTION FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SIMILAR RH PROFILES AND WIND PROFILES...YET
ANOTHER FROSTY NIGHT IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. BY
SUNDAY...SLIGHTLY WARMER 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND A TINY BIT OF
MIXING MAY ALLOW HIGHS TO START TO STRUGGLE UP MORE INTO THE 60S
RATHER THAN STRADDLING 60F ITSELF. FRIES
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY WEA IS EXPD THRU THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. A
WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE DISTRICT FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
WL START OUT BLO AVG OVR THE WEEKEND...THEN MODERATE TO SEASONAL
LVLS AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS E OF THE AREA AND FLOW TURNS SRLY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH GENERAL VFR
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR
AS STRATUS DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT. AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW.
.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH REMAINING STRATUS THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY...BUT BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY RETURN PORTS TO
VFR CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GENERAL VFR WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 232233
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
633 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO SHOWERS AND
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES...AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED STORMS ARE SLOWLY WEAKENING ACROSS REGION AS LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY WANES. LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST OTHER THAN TO
ADJUST POPS AND SKY TOWARD CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. ONLY SHOWERS BY 9
PM OR SO WITH STRONG SECONDARY COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO.
WEAK WAVE NEAR WHEELING WILL PUSH NORTHEAST AND ALLOW FRONT TO
SWEEP THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL ABRUPTLY TURN NORTHWEST
AND GUST THROUGH THE NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
FLOOD INTO THE REGION WITH SHOWER CHANCES DECREASING TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.
ON FRIDAY RATHER COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP A FEW SHOWERS IN
THE RIDGES OTHERWISE MUCH DRIER AIR AND COLD ADVECTION AT 850 MB
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH BELOW NORMAL. SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION BY LATE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLDER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY INVADE THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DEW POINTS RAPIDLY DECREASING THROUGH THE 40S
AND INTO THE LOWER 30S AND UPPER 20S BY SATURDAY MORNING. AS WIND
BACKS OFF FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES...CLEAR
SKIES WILL RESULT IN SUPERIOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS
SUCH...WIDESPREAD FROST IS LIKELY AND LOCAL FREEZING CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER SPOTS.
WITH LITTLE OVERALL PATTERN EVOLUTION FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SIMILAR RH PROFILES AND WIND PROFILES...YET
ANOTHER FROSTY NIGHT IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. BY
SUNDAY...SLIGHTLY WARMER 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND A TINY BIT OF
MIXING MAY ALLOW HIGHS TO START TO STRUGGLE UP MORE INTO THE 60S
RATHER THAN STRADDLING 60F ITSELF. FRIES
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY WEA IS EXPD THRU THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. A
WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE DISTRICT FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
WL START OUT BLO AVG OVR THE WEEKEND...THEN MODERATE TO SEASONAL
LVLS AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS E OF THE AREA AND FLOW TURNS SRLY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE PORTS THIS
EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.
MVFR RESTRICTIONS OR BRIEF IFR ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA THIS EVENING...WIND
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP AS WELL AS THE ARRIVAL OF MVFR CIGS.
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WIDESPREAD
IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRNS ARE LIKELY WITH REMAINING SHWRS INTO FRIDAY...BUT BLDG HIGH
PRES WL QUICKLY RTN VFR TO AREA PORTS BY FRIDAY AFTN. GENL VFR WL
THEN PERSIST INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
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