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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010540
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
140 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL COME WITH A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ISOLD-SCT SHWRS WL CONT EST E-S OF PIT OVRNGT AS AN UPR LOW CONTS
TO SPIN OVR PA. LAPES RATES HAVE DCRSD ENOUGH FOR TSTMS TO BE
DROPPED FM THE FCST OVRNGT. SHOULD CONT TO SEE FG/ST FORMATION
INTO WED MRNG AS WELL.

WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THAT UPR LOW...HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT POPS
AND AT LEAST BKN CLD COVER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH
DIMINISHMENT THEREAFTER.

DESPITE FRONT/UPR LOW ENCROACHMENT...EXPECT NR TERM TEMPS TO RMN
NR THE SEASONAL AVGS AS PER A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPR TROF ADVN ACRS THE WRN CONUS WL RESULT IN SHRTWV RIDGING OVR
THE GREAT LAKES/UPR OH REGIONS INTO FRIDAY. DRY WEA WL THUS RESUME
WITH WARM ADVCTN SPPRTG TEMPS FM 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVGS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF IS FORECAST FOR A FRIDAY APCH WITH THE
LATEST GFS DEPICTING A LATE AFTN/EVE CDFNT PASSAGE. POPS AND TEMPS
WERE ADJUSTED FOR THAT TREND WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MUCH BTR
DESTABILIZATION.  THUNDER MENTION WAS THUS MAINTAINED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY SLICE THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS DIMINISHING WITH THE PASSAGE.
STRONG WIND ARE LIKELY ALONG THE FRONT OWING TO A PROGGED 30-35
KTS OFF THE SURFACE. THIS COMBINED WITH A DRASTIC AIR MASS
DENSITY DISCONTINUITY SHOULD YIELD A FAIRLY WINDY PERIOD INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.

MUCH COLDER...BUT STILL UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE
THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LOW PRES SETTLES OVR THE REGION. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FUELED BY CONTINUED
COLD ADVECTION SHOULD SPPRT A DIURNAL INCREASE IN SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY.

ERN CONUS TROFG IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK...THUS
MAINTAINING GENLY COOL CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ON THE BACKSIDE OF CLOSED LOW ALOFT
OVER WRN PA FROM KPIT TO KFKL AND LOOKS TO SPREAD BACK TO KZZV FOR
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE QUITE VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH
VARIABLE MVFR/IFR FOG AT TIMES SOUTH. EXPECT STRATUS AND MVFR/IFR
FOG AT TIMES TO FILL IN ACROSS THE EASTERN TAFS TO THE RIDGES
BEFORE DAYBREAK. AS LOW DEPARTS WEDNESDAY MORNING GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED IN EARLY MORNING FOG THURSDAY...OTHERWISE
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010540
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
140 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL COME WITH A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ISOLD-SCT SHWRS WL CONT EST E-S OF PIT OVRNGT AS AN UPR LOW CONTS
TO SPIN OVR PA. LAPES RATES HAVE DCRSD ENOUGH FOR TSTMS TO BE
DROPPED FM THE FCST OVRNGT. SHOULD CONT TO SEE FG/ST FORMATION
INTO WED MRNG AS WELL.

WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THAT UPR LOW...HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT POPS
AND AT LEAST BKN CLD COVER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH
DIMINISHMENT THEREAFTER.

DESPITE FRONT/UPR LOW ENCROACHMENT...EXPECT NR TERM TEMPS TO RMN
NR THE SEASONAL AVGS AS PER A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPR TROF ADVN ACRS THE WRN CONUS WL RESULT IN SHRTWV RIDGING OVR
THE GREAT LAKES/UPR OH REGIONS INTO FRIDAY. DRY WEA WL THUS RESUME
WITH WARM ADVCTN SPPRTG TEMPS FM 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVGS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF IS FORECAST FOR A FRIDAY APCH WITH THE
LATEST GFS DEPICTING A LATE AFTN/EVE CDFNT PASSAGE. POPS AND TEMPS
WERE ADJUSTED FOR THAT TREND WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MUCH BTR
DESTABILIZATION.  THUNDER MENTION WAS THUS MAINTAINED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY SLICE THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS DIMINISHING WITH THE PASSAGE.
STRONG WIND ARE LIKELY ALONG THE FRONT OWING TO A PROGGED 30-35
KTS OFF THE SURFACE. THIS COMBINED WITH A DRASTIC AIR MASS
DENSITY DISCONTINUITY SHOULD YIELD A FAIRLY WINDY PERIOD INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.

MUCH COLDER...BUT STILL UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE
THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LOW PRES SETTLES OVR THE REGION. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FUELED BY CONTINUED
COLD ADVECTION SHOULD SPPRT A DIURNAL INCREASE IN SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY.

ERN CONUS TROFG IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK...THUS
MAINTAINING GENLY COOL CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ON THE BACKSIDE OF CLOSED LOW ALOFT
OVER WRN PA FROM KPIT TO KFKL AND LOOKS TO SPREAD BACK TO KZZV FOR
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE QUITE VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH
VARIABLE MVFR/IFR FOG AT TIMES SOUTH. EXPECT STRATUS AND MVFR/IFR
FOG AT TIMES TO FILL IN ACROSS THE EASTERN TAFS TO THE RIDGES
BEFORE DAYBREAK. AS LOW DEPARTS WEDNESDAY MORNING GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED IN EARLY MORNING FOG THURSDAY...OTHERWISE
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010540
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
140 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL COME WITH A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ISOLD-SCT SHWRS WL CONT EST E-S OF PIT OVRNGT AS AN UPR LOW CONTS
TO SPIN OVR PA. LAPES RATES HAVE DCRSD ENOUGH FOR TSTMS TO BE
DROPPED FM THE FCST OVRNGT. SHOULD CONT TO SEE FG/ST FORMATION
INTO WED MRNG AS WELL.

WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THAT UPR LOW...HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT POPS
AND AT LEAST BKN CLD COVER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH
DIMINISHMENT THEREAFTER.

DESPITE FRONT/UPR LOW ENCROACHMENT...EXPECT NR TERM TEMPS TO RMN
NR THE SEASONAL AVGS AS PER A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPR TROF ADVN ACRS THE WRN CONUS WL RESULT IN SHRTWV RIDGING OVR
THE GREAT LAKES/UPR OH REGIONS INTO FRIDAY. DRY WEA WL THUS RESUME
WITH WARM ADVCTN SPPRTG TEMPS FM 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVGS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF IS FORECAST FOR A FRIDAY APCH WITH THE
LATEST GFS DEPICTING A LATE AFTN/EVE CDFNT PASSAGE. POPS AND TEMPS
WERE ADJUSTED FOR THAT TREND WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MUCH BTR
DESTABILIZATION.  THUNDER MENTION WAS THUS MAINTAINED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY SLICE THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS DIMINISHING WITH THE PASSAGE.
STRONG WIND ARE LIKELY ALONG THE FRONT OWING TO A PROGGED 30-35
KTS OFF THE SURFACE. THIS COMBINED WITH A DRASTIC AIR MASS
DENSITY DISCONTINUITY SHOULD YIELD A FAIRLY WINDY PERIOD INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.

MUCH COLDER...BUT STILL UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE
THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LOW PRES SETTLES OVR THE REGION. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FUELED BY CONTINUED
COLD ADVECTION SHOULD SPPRT A DIURNAL INCREASE IN SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY.

ERN CONUS TROFG IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK...THUS
MAINTAINING GENLY COOL CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ON THE BACKSIDE OF CLOSED LOW ALOFT
OVER WRN PA FROM KPIT TO KFKL AND LOOKS TO SPREAD BACK TO KZZV FOR
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE QUITE VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH
VARIABLE MVFR/IFR FOG AT TIMES SOUTH. EXPECT STRATUS AND MVFR/IFR
FOG AT TIMES TO FILL IN ACROSS THE EASTERN TAFS TO THE RIDGES
BEFORE DAYBREAK. AS LOW DEPARTS WEDNESDAY MORNING GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED IN EARLY MORNING FOG THURSDAY...OTHERWISE
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010540
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
140 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL COME WITH A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ISOLD-SCT SHWRS WL CONT EST E-S OF PIT OVRNGT AS AN UPR LOW CONTS
TO SPIN OVR PA. LAPES RATES HAVE DCRSD ENOUGH FOR TSTMS TO BE
DROPPED FM THE FCST OVRNGT. SHOULD CONT TO SEE FG/ST FORMATION
INTO WED MRNG AS WELL.

WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THAT UPR LOW...HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT POPS
AND AT LEAST BKN CLD COVER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH
DIMINISHMENT THEREAFTER.

DESPITE FRONT/UPR LOW ENCROACHMENT...EXPECT NR TERM TEMPS TO RMN
NR THE SEASONAL AVGS AS PER A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPR TROF ADVN ACRS THE WRN CONUS WL RESULT IN SHRTWV RIDGING OVR
THE GREAT LAKES/UPR OH REGIONS INTO FRIDAY. DRY WEA WL THUS RESUME
WITH WARM ADVCTN SPPRTG TEMPS FM 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVGS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF IS FORECAST FOR A FRIDAY APCH WITH THE
LATEST GFS DEPICTING A LATE AFTN/EVE CDFNT PASSAGE. POPS AND TEMPS
WERE ADJUSTED FOR THAT TREND WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MUCH BTR
DESTABILIZATION.  THUNDER MENTION WAS THUS MAINTAINED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY SLICE THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS DIMINISHING WITH THE PASSAGE.
STRONG WIND ARE LIKELY ALONG THE FRONT OWING TO A PROGGED 30-35
KTS OFF THE SURFACE. THIS COMBINED WITH A DRASTIC AIR MASS
DENSITY DISCONTINUITY SHOULD YIELD A FAIRLY WINDY PERIOD INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.

MUCH COLDER...BUT STILL UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE
THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LOW PRES SETTLES OVR THE REGION. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FUELED BY CONTINUED
COLD ADVECTION SHOULD SPPRT A DIURNAL INCREASE IN SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY.

ERN CONUS TROFG IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK...THUS
MAINTAINING GENLY COOL CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ON THE BACKSIDE OF CLOSED LOW ALOFT
OVER WRN PA FROM KPIT TO KFKL AND LOOKS TO SPREAD BACK TO KZZV FOR
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE QUITE VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH
VARIABLE MVFR/IFR FOG AT TIMES SOUTH. EXPECT STRATUS AND MVFR/IFR
FOG AT TIMES TO FILL IN ACROSS THE EASTERN TAFS TO THE RIDGES
BEFORE DAYBREAK. AS LOW DEPARTS WEDNESDAY MORNING GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED IN EARLY MORNING FOG THURSDAY...OTHERWISE
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








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000
FXUS61 KPHI 010424
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1224 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN PENNSYLVANIA WILL REDEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND
LATE TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN
CANADA WEDGES DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATER TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO OUR EAST FRIDAY WITH A POTENT COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSES BY NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TROUGH AXIS SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN EASTERN PA TO CHESAPEAKE BAY AT
MIDNIGHT WILL ROTATE EASTWARD INTO SOUTH PA...NE MD DURING THE
NIGHT WHILE THE NORTHERN PORTION IS STATIONARY WEST OF HAZELTON. THIS
IN RESPONSE TO STEERING WIND FIELDS ALOFT...WESTERLY FLOW TO THE
SOUTH AND NEARLY E OR SE FLOW N OF 178.

ALSO LOW TOP SHOWERS WITH SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY ARE SWEEPING
WESTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO NE NJ.

POPS AND WX HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT...REFLECTING HIGHER POPS
NE NJ.

MODELS ARE NOW CARRYING UNSTABLE SWI`S ACROSS NJ OVERNIGHT AND WED
MORNING AND IT WILL NOT SURPRISE TO SEE SHOWERS BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER THE FCST AREA BY DAWN.

MODEL QPF HAS JUST NOT BEEN VERY GOOD IN THIS INFREQUENTLY
OCCURRING PATTERN.

GUIDANCE WAS ALSO INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG, AND WE
KEPT THIS IN THE FORECAST WITH THE EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW AND AMPLE
MOISTURE. FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, WE MOSTLY TOOK A BLEND OF
MET/MAV GUIDANCE AND EXPECT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S, EXCEPT SOME
LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST AND IN MORE URBAN AREAS. LIGHT NORTH TO
EAST WIND.

WEDNESDAY...INSTABILITY SCT SHOWERS ANTICIPATED...AT LEAST THROUGH
EARLY AFTN. PWAT CONTINUES 1.2 INCHES SO SOME AREAS WILL RECEIVE
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLOUDY THROUGH MIDDAY
BEFORE SOME SLOW THINNING OCCURS LATE-DAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WERE A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY, AND WE EXPECT
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.  LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG RE-EXPAND ACROSS OUR AREA IN LIGHT WIND
FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESS TUCKED DOWN THE COAST
FROM EASTERN CANADA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
FEATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST SUCH FEATURE BEING THE
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW THAT SHOULD BE TO OUR IMMEDIATE
EAST. THEN WE HAVE THE POTENTIAL PHASING OF A STRONG NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST THAT CARVES OUT A VERY LARGE AND
DEEP CLOSED LOW/TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

THURSDAY...RATHER DRY DAY EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY ON
ACROSS OUR EASTERN PORTIONS. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME MID-LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL SCRAPES BY BUT
NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF WITH. MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BECOME MORE
PROMINENT ON THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD GIVE WAY TO LATE DAY SUNSHINE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW-70S; AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE MAY BE BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGING OVERHEAD A
BIT TOO FAST, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
STILL LINGERING BY AND THE APPROACH OF A DEEPENING TROUGH UPSTREAM,
THE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD SLIGHTLY BEFORE BREAKING. ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD
OF THE NEXT TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS
ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES BY LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DO NOT SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION WITH THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN THE STABLE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE. WE SEE A INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE AND POSSIBLY
INTENSITY BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT INCHES
CLOSER. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MUCH THE SAME, LOW-70S
WITH INCREASING COLD COVER.

SATURDAY...TRANSITION DAY WITH A STRONG FRONT EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THROUGH DURING THE MORNING HOURS. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL ALLOW PWATS TO CLIMB TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL MAKING FOR
HEAVIER RAINFALL. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE STILL PRETTY DRY ACROSS
THE REGION SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY TO OCCUR
WITH THE POSSIBLE HEAVIER RAIN. LOTS OF CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION OCCURRING DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID TO
UPPER-60S.

SUNDAY - TUESDAY...CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO DURING THE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.
PREFERRED THE CMC AND UKMET EVOLUTION OF THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
FIELD OVER THE GFS AND ECMWF...BOTH OF WHICH HAVE A MORE
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AND PLACEMENT OF THE CLOSED LOW FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT UNCERTAINTY AS SHOWN BY
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS SPREAD IN MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FIELDS FROM THE
MEAN AND THIS THINKING IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST MODEL
VERIFICATIONS WHICH INDICATE A LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTION.

EXPECT WINDS TO DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES
NOSES INTO THE REGION. IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES ENOUGH W/
LIGHT WINDS...COULD SEE LOW TEMPS IN THE 35-40 RANGE IN THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR OF OUR CWA. SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD...WITH 850 HPA TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...MID 50S IN THE POCONOS TO MID 60S
IN SOUTH JERSEY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY ON TUESDAY...PRESENTING THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO SEASONABLE LEVELS ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z...VFR CONDITIONS WEST AND MVFR CIGS EAST
DEGRADING TO IFR CONDITIONS EAST AND POTENTIAL IFR CIGS WEST. SHOWERS
COASTAL NNJ AND SHOWERS VCNTY KRDG AND KMPO WITH CHANCE OF THUNDER
VCNTY KRDG.


WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH
THE MORNING, BEFORE BECOMING VFR AROUND MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON
FOR THE TAF SITES. AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER REMAINS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED,
MOSTLY IN THE 8 TO 10 KNOT RANGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS REDEVELOP IN LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY
FOG.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MVFR EARLY BECOMING VFR. EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED.
POSSIBLE LINGERING SHOWER EARLY AT MIV/ACY, OTHERWISE DRY.

FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR. RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES LATE, OVERSPREADS THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS IN HEAVY SHOWERS. WINDS BACK
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR EARLY IN HEAVY RAIN, TRENDING VFR. WINDS
CONTINUE TO BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
TWO WEEKS AFTER RESTORATION OF A LENGTHY BUOY 44065 OUTAGE...DATA
TRANSMISSION TOPPED AT 4PM THIS PAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NDBC HAS
BEEN CONTACTED AND THEY WILL LET US KNOW WHAT THE PROBLEM IS.

IN THE MEANTIME...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE FCST FOR THE NNJ
WATERS TODAY. WE DONT REALLY KNOW WHAT THE SEAS ARE DOING OFF THE
NNJ COAST.

NO EXPANSION OF THE SCA IS ANTICIPATED ATTM FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WATERS IN OUR 330 AM FCST.

BASICALLY NE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MAX GUSTS AROUND
20 KT. SEAS BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT NORTHERN WATERS...NEAR 4 FT SOUTHERN
WATERS AND GENERALLY 1-2 FT DELAWARE BAY.


OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY - FRIDAY...SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ON OUR
WATERS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS WE CONTINUE WITH THE EASTERLY ONSHORE
FLOW. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND 5 FEET. WINDS BEGIN TO BACK
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

SATURDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE
WEST-NORTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY AND WITH STRONGER COLD AIR
ADVECTION OCCURRING, WE COULD SEE A RETURN TO SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ450>452.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER/DRAG 1224A
NEAR TERM...DRAG/KLINE/ROBERTSON 1224A
SHORT TERM...DRAG/KLINE 1224A
LONG TERM...FRANCK/HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER/KLINE/ROBERTSON 1224A
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER/KLINE 1224A






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010356
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1156 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL COME WITH A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISOLD-SCT SHWRS WL CONT EST E-S OF PIT OVRNGT AS AN UPR LOW CONTS
TO SPIN OVR PA. LAPES RATES HAVE DCRSD ENOUGH FOR TSTMS TO BE
DROPPED FM THE FCST OVRNGT. SHOULD CONT TO SEE FG/ST FORMATION
INTO WED MRNG AS WELL.

WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THAT UPR LOW...HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT POPS
AND AT LEAST BKN CLD COVER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH
DIMINISHMENT THEREAFTER.

DESPITE FRONT/UPR LOW ENCROACHMENT...EXPECT NR TERM TEMPS TO RMN
NR THE SEASONAL AVGS AS PER A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPR TROF ADVN ACRS THE WRN CONUS WL RESULT IN SHRTWV RIDGING OVR
THE GREAT LAKES/UPR OH REGIONS INTO FRIDAY. DRY WEA WL THUS RESUME
WITH WARM ADVCTN SPPRTG TEMPS FM 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVGS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF IS FORECAST FOR A FRIDAY APCH WITH THE
LATEST GFS DEPICTING A LATE AFTN/EVE CDFNT PASSAGE. POPS AND TEMPS
WERE ADJUSTED FOR THAT TREND WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MUCH BTR
DESTABILIZATION.  THUNDER MENTION WAS THUS MAINTAINED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY SLICE THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS DIMINISHING WITH THE PASSAGE.
STRONG WIND ARE LIKELY ALONG THE FRONT OWING TO A PROGGED 30-35
KTS OFF THE SURFACE. THIS COMBINED WITH A DRASTIC AIR MASS
DENSITY DISCONTINUITY SHOULD YIELD A FAIRLY WINDY PERIOD INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.

MUCH COLDER...BUT STILL UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE
THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LOW PRES SETTLES OVR THE REGION. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FUELED BY CONTINUED
COLD ADVECTION SHOULD SPPRT A DIURNAL INCREASE IN SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY.

ERN CONUS TROFG IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK...THUS
MAINTAINING GENLY COOL CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH ERLY TNGT...CAUSING
VERY BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IF AT ALL. COMPLEX AVIATION FORECAST
TONIGHT...AS AT LEAST A LITTLE RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA EARLIER
TUES MAY ENHANCE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY WEDS MORNING DESPITE
POTENTIAL FOR LLVL STRATUS. STRATUS POTENTIAL WOULD BE HIGHER FOR
NRN PORTS AS LLVL MOISTURE IS MORE ABUNDANT THERE.
REGARDLESS...IFR RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CONDITIONS...SHOULD FOG
DEVELOP. A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR WEDS AS MIXING
WILL LIFT CLOUD BASES TO OVER 3KFT.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010356
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1156 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL COME WITH A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISOLD-SCT SHWRS WL CONT EST E-S OF PIT OVRNGT AS AN UPR LOW CONTS
TO SPIN OVR PA. LAPES RATES HAVE DCRSD ENOUGH FOR TSTMS TO BE
DROPPED FM THE FCST OVRNGT. SHOULD CONT TO SEE FG/ST FORMATION
INTO WED MRNG AS WELL.

WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THAT UPR LOW...HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT POPS
AND AT LEAST BKN CLD COVER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH
DIMINISHMENT THEREAFTER.

DESPITE FRONT/UPR LOW ENCROACHMENT...EXPECT NR TERM TEMPS TO RMN
NR THE SEASONAL AVGS AS PER A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPR TROF ADVN ACRS THE WRN CONUS WL RESULT IN SHRTWV RIDGING OVR
THE GREAT LAKES/UPR OH REGIONS INTO FRIDAY. DRY WEA WL THUS RESUME
WITH WARM ADVCTN SPPRTG TEMPS FM 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVGS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF IS FORECAST FOR A FRIDAY APCH WITH THE
LATEST GFS DEPICTING A LATE AFTN/EVE CDFNT PASSAGE. POPS AND TEMPS
WERE ADJUSTED FOR THAT TREND WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MUCH BTR
DESTABILIZATION.  THUNDER MENTION WAS THUS MAINTAINED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY SLICE THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS DIMINISHING WITH THE PASSAGE.
STRONG WIND ARE LIKELY ALONG THE FRONT OWING TO A PROGGED 30-35
KTS OFF THE SURFACE. THIS COMBINED WITH A DRASTIC AIR MASS
DENSITY DISCONTINUITY SHOULD YIELD A FAIRLY WINDY PERIOD INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.

MUCH COLDER...BUT STILL UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE
THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LOW PRES SETTLES OVR THE REGION. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FUELED BY CONTINUED
COLD ADVECTION SHOULD SPPRT A DIURNAL INCREASE IN SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY.

ERN CONUS TROFG IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK...THUS
MAINTAINING GENLY COOL CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH ERLY TNGT...CAUSING
VERY BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IF AT ALL. COMPLEX AVIATION FORECAST
TONIGHT...AS AT LEAST A LITTLE RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA EARLIER
TUES MAY ENHANCE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY WEDS MORNING DESPITE
POTENTIAL FOR LLVL STRATUS. STRATUS POTENTIAL WOULD BE HIGHER FOR
NRN PORTS AS LLVL MOISTURE IS MORE ABUNDANT THERE.
REGARDLESS...IFR RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CONDITIONS...SHOULD FOG
DEVELOP. A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR WEDS AS MIXING
WILL LIFT CLOUD BASES TO OVER 3KFT.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






  [top]

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010141
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
941 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR MOST
OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
GENERALLY MCLR TO PCLDY CONDS OVR THE FA THIS EVE AND THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THE OVRNGT HRS. UPR LVL LO PRES WILL TRACK ACRS PA
TNGT...PUSHING ITS ACCOMPANYING CDFNT CLOSER TO THE FA FM THE NNW.
XPCG ANY PCPN FOR THAT SYS TO BE LIMITED TO FAR NNE AREAS OF FA
(AFT MDNGT). OTRW...ANOTHER NGT OF ST/FG DEVELOPMENT XPCD AFT
MDNGT...THOUGH UNCERTAIN OF AMT OF COVERAGE...BUT WRN AND SRN
PORTIONS HAVE THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD...WITH A LESSER PROB FARTHER
NE (IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPR SYS). LO TEMPS TNGT WILL RANGE
FM THE M50S TO L60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPR LVL LO PRES WILL CONT E ACRS SRN ENGLAND AND OFF THE CST INTO
WED NGT...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED TROF SFC-ALOFT THRU THE FCST AREA
WITH BKN CLDNS AND MAINLY SLGT CHC POPS (MAINLY NNE
PORTIONS). AFT ANY MRNG ST/FG...VRB CLDS TO PCLDY. HI TEMPS FM
THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHR...TO 75 TO 80F ELSW.

HI PRES FM NEW ENGLAND BUILDS SWD INTO THE REGION LATER WED NGT
THRU THU...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF ENE WINDS. MODELS
CONT TO SUGGEST THAT INLAND LOCATIONS HAVE A LO PROB FOR (ISLTD)
THU...ALONG WITH VRB CLDS. MAINLY PRTLY CLOUDY TWD THE CST. LO
TEMPS WED NGT WILL RANGE FM THE M50S TO L60S. HI TEMPS ON
THU MANLY FM THE MID 70S TO ARND 80.

A POTENT UPR LVL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LO PRES/CDFNT
(EXTENDING S TO ERN TX) WILL BE DIVING ESE THROUGH THE MIDWEST
THU NGT. THAT SYS WILL APPROACH THE MDATLC RGN ON FRI. AHEAD OF
IT...SSE WNDS BRING INCRSG MOISTURE WHICH WILL RESULT IN VRB CLDS
TO MCLDY CONDS AND PSBL ISOLD SHRAS. THE MOST WIDESPREAD PCPN
ASSOCIATED W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT XPCD TO RMN JUST W OF THE FA
THROUGH FRI AFTN. HI TEMPS FRI FM THE M/U70S ON THE ERN SHR TO L80S
ACRS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME CUT OFF OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING NE
INTO SE CANADA ON SUNDAY. STRONG JET ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH/UPPER LOW WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN OFFSHORE SATURDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE FROPA AND WILL CARRY HIGH LIKELY
POPS. STRONG FORCING BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY
TRIGGER AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO FRIDAY EVENING. WITH THE FRONT
EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE COAST AROUND 12Z SAT...SHOWER CHANCES WILL
QUICKLY COME TO AND END FROM WEST TO EAST BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. WILL
LIMIT SHWR CHANCES ON SATURDAY MORNING TO THE FAR EASTERN AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR DRY WX. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW LINGERS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH ANOTHER SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
SATURDAY 70-75. COOLER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 65-70. HIGHS MONDAY/TUESDAY
70-75.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COMBO OF THE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND ABUNDANT LL MSTR WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO ANTHR NITE OF IFR STRATUS/FOG TO DEVELOPMENT...EXCEPT FOR KECG/KORF
WHERE WINDS ~5KT WILL LIMIT RESTRICTIONS TO MVRF. STRATUS/FOG WILL
DISSIPATE/LIFT WEST TO EAST WED MORNING AHEAD OF APPRCHG CD FRNT
PROGGED FOR LATER IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...DRY WX IS XPCTD THRU FRI BUT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS
OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT LIGHT NE WINDS AOB 10KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS PA
TONIGHT...THEN NE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WED...BEFORE PUSHING
WELL OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. WINDS THRU THURSDAY WILL REMAIN OUT
OF THE N OR NE AOB 15KT. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 3-4 FT LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WED...HIGHEST OVER OFFSHORE WATERS. GUIDANCE BUILDS
SEAS TO AROUND 5 FT OFFSHORE BY WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HAVE HELD
OFF WITH SCA FLAGS FOR THE MOMENT WITH CONDITIONS STILL APPEARING
MARGINAL ATTM. WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE S-SW FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH CROSSES INTO THE AREA
EARLY SATURDAY...WITH WINDS QUICKLY SWINGING AROUND TO THE NW
POST-FRONT SATURDAY AFTN. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE FRI INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG/AJZ
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...MPR/DAP
MARINE...JDM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010141
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
941 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR MOST
OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
GENERALLY MCLR TO PCLDY CONDS OVR THE FA THIS EVE AND THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THE OVRNGT HRS. UPR LVL LO PRES WILL TRACK ACRS PA
TNGT...PUSHING ITS ACCOMPANYING CDFNT CLOSER TO THE FA FM THE NNW.
XPCG ANY PCPN FOR THAT SYS TO BE LIMITED TO FAR NNE AREAS OF FA
(AFT MDNGT). OTRW...ANOTHER NGT OF ST/FG DEVELOPMENT XPCD AFT
MDNGT...THOUGH UNCERTAIN OF AMT OF COVERAGE...BUT WRN AND SRN
PORTIONS HAVE THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD...WITH A LESSER PROB FARTHER
NE (IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPR SYS). LO TEMPS TNGT WILL RANGE
FM THE M50S TO L60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPR LVL LO PRES WILL CONT E ACRS SRN ENGLAND AND OFF THE CST INTO
WED NGT...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED TROF SFC-ALOFT THRU THE FCST AREA
WITH BKN CLDNS AND MAINLY SLGT CHC POPS (MAINLY NNE
PORTIONS). AFT ANY MRNG ST/FG...VRB CLDS TO PCLDY. HI TEMPS FM
THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHR...TO 75 TO 80F ELSW.

HI PRES FM NEW ENGLAND BUILDS SWD INTO THE REGION LATER WED NGT
THRU THU...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF ENE WINDS. MODELS
CONT TO SUGGEST THAT INLAND LOCATIONS HAVE A LO PROB FOR (ISLTD)
THU...ALONG WITH VRB CLDS. MAINLY PRTLY CLOUDY TWD THE CST. LO
TEMPS WED NGT WILL RANGE FM THE M50S TO L60S. HI TEMPS ON
THU MANLY FM THE MID 70S TO ARND 80.

A POTENT UPR LVL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LO PRES/CDFNT
(EXTENDING S TO ERN TX) WILL BE DIVING ESE THROUGH THE MIDWEST
THU NGT. THAT SYS WILL APPROACH THE MDATLC RGN ON FRI. AHEAD OF
IT...SSE WNDS BRING INCRSG MOISTURE WHICH WILL RESULT IN VRB CLDS
TO MCLDY CONDS AND PSBL ISOLD SHRAS. THE MOST WIDESPREAD PCPN
ASSOCIATED W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT XPCD TO RMN JUST W OF THE FA
THROUGH FRI AFTN. HI TEMPS FRI FM THE M/U70S ON THE ERN SHR TO L80S
ACRS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME CUT OFF OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING NE
INTO SE CANADA ON SUNDAY. STRONG JET ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH/UPPER LOW WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN OFFSHORE SATURDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE FROPA AND WILL CARRY HIGH LIKELY
POPS. STRONG FORCING BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY
TRIGGER AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO FRIDAY EVENING. WITH THE FRONT
EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE COAST AROUND 12Z SAT...SHOWER CHANCES WILL
QUICKLY COME TO AND END FROM WEST TO EAST BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. WILL
LIMIT SHWR CHANCES ON SATURDAY MORNING TO THE FAR EASTERN AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR DRY WX. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW LINGERS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH ANOTHER SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
SATURDAY 70-75. COOLER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 65-70. HIGHS MONDAY/TUESDAY
70-75.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COMBO OF THE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND ABUNDANT LL MSTR WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO ANTHR NITE OF IFR STRATUS/FOG TO DEVELOPMENT...EXCEPT FOR KECG/KORF
WHERE WINDS ~5KT WILL LIMIT RESTRICTIONS TO MVRF. STRATUS/FOG WILL
DISSIPATE/LIFT WEST TO EAST WED MORNING AHEAD OF APPRCHG CD FRNT
PROGGED FOR LATER IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...DRY WX IS XPCTD THRU FRI BUT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS
OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT LIGHT NE WINDS AOB 10KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS PA
TONIGHT...THEN NE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WED...BEFORE PUSHING
WELL OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. WINDS THRU THURSDAY WILL REMAIN OUT
OF THE N OR NE AOB 15KT. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 3-4 FT LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WED...HIGHEST OVER OFFSHORE WATERS. GUIDANCE BUILDS
SEAS TO AROUND 5 FT OFFSHORE BY WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HAVE HELD
OFF WITH SCA FLAGS FOR THE MOMENT WITH CONDITIONS STILL APPEARING
MARGINAL ATTM. WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE S-SW FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH CROSSES INTO THE AREA
EARLY SATURDAY...WITH WINDS QUICKLY SWINGING AROUND TO THE NW
POST-FRONT SATURDAY AFTN. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE FRI INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG/AJZ
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...MPR/DAP
MARINE...JDM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010141
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
941 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR MOST
OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
GENERALLY MCLR TO PCLDY CONDS OVR THE FA THIS EVE AND THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THE OVRNGT HRS. UPR LVL LO PRES WILL TRACK ACRS PA
TNGT...PUSHING ITS ACCOMPANYING CDFNT CLOSER TO THE FA FM THE NNW.
XPCG ANY PCPN FOR THAT SYS TO BE LIMITED TO FAR NNE AREAS OF FA
(AFT MDNGT). OTRW...ANOTHER NGT OF ST/FG DEVELOPMENT XPCD AFT
MDNGT...THOUGH UNCERTAIN OF AMT OF COVERAGE...BUT WRN AND SRN
PORTIONS HAVE THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD...WITH A LESSER PROB FARTHER
NE (IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPR SYS). LO TEMPS TNGT WILL RANGE
FM THE M50S TO L60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPR LVL LO PRES WILL CONT E ACRS SRN ENGLAND AND OFF THE CST INTO
WED NGT...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED TROF SFC-ALOFT THRU THE FCST AREA
WITH BKN CLDNS AND MAINLY SLGT CHC POPS (MAINLY NNE
PORTIONS). AFT ANY MRNG ST/FG...VRB CLDS TO PCLDY. HI TEMPS FM
THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHR...TO 75 TO 80F ELSW.

HI PRES FM NEW ENGLAND BUILDS SWD INTO THE REGION LATER WED NGT
THRU THU...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF ENE WINDS. MODELS
CONT TO SUGGEST THAT INLAND LOCATIONS HAVE A LO PROB FOR (ISLTD)
THU...ALONG WITH VRB CLDS. MAINLY PRTLY CLOUDY TWD THE CST. LO
TEMPS WED NGT WILL RANGE FM THE M50S TO L60S. HI TEMPS ON
THU MANLY FM THE MID 70S TO ARND 80.

A POTENT UPR LVL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LO PRES/CDFNT
(EXTENDING S TO ERN TX) WILL BE DIVING ESE THROUGH THE MIDWEST
THU NGT. THAT SYS WILL APPROACH THE MDATLC RGN ON FRI. AHEAD OF
IT...SSE WNDS BRING INCRSG MOISTURE WHICH WILL RESULT IN VRB CLDS
TO MCLDY CONDS AND PSBL ISOLD SHRAS. THE MOST WIDESPREAD PCPN
ASSOCIATED W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT XPCD TO RMN JUST W OF THE FA
THROUGH FRI AFTN. HI TEMPS FRI FM THE M/U70S ON THE ERN SHR TO L80S
ACRS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME CUT OFF OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING NE
INTO SE CANADA ON SUNDAY. STRONG JET ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH/UPPER LOW WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN OFFSHORE SATURDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE FROPA AND WILL CARRY HIGH LIKELY
POPS. STRONG FORCING BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY
TRIGGER AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO FRIDAY EVENING. WITH THE FRONT
EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE COAST AROUND 12Z SAT...SHOWER CHANCES WILL
QUICKLY COME TO AND END FROM WEST TO EAST BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. WILL
LIMIT SHWR CHANCES ON SATURDAY MORNING TO THE FAR EASTERN AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR DRY WX. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW LINGERS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH ANOTHER SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
SATURDAY 70-75. COOLER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 65-70. HIGHS MONDAY/TUESDAY
70-75.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COMBO OF THE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND ABUNDANT LL MSTR WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO ANTHR NITE OF IFR STRATUS/FOG TO DEVELOPMENT...EXCEPT FOR KECG/KORF
WHERE WINDS ~5KT WILL LIMIT RESTRICTIONS TO MVRF. STRATUS/FOG WILL
DISSIPATE/LIFT WEST TO EAST WED MORNING AHEAD OF APPRCHG CD FRNT
PROGGED FOR LATER IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...DRY WX IS XPCTD THRU FRI BUT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS
OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT LIGHT NE WINDS AOB 10KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS PA
TONIGHT...THEN NE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WED...BEFORE PUSHING
WELL OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. WINDS THRU THURSDAY WILL REMAIN OUT
OF THE N OR NE AOB 15KT. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 3-4 FT LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WED...HIGHEST OVER OFFSHORE WATERS. GUIDANCE BUILDS
SEAS TO AROUND 5 FT OFFSHORE BY WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HAVE HELD
OFF WITH SCA FLAGS FOR THE MOMENT WITH CONDITIONS STILL APPEARING
MARGINAL ATTM. WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE S-SW FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH CROSSES INTO THE AREA
EARLY SATURDAY...WITH WINDS QUICKLY SWINGING AROUND TO THE NW
POST-FRONT SATURDAY AFTN. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE FRI INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG/AJZ
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...MPR/DAP
MARINE...JDM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010141
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
941 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR MOST
OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
GENERALLY MCLR TO PCLDY CONDS OVR THE FA THIS EVE AND THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THE OVRNGT HRS. UPR LVL LO PRES WILL TRACK ACRS PA
TNGT...PUSHING ITS ACCOMPANYING CDFNT CLOSER TO THE FA FM THE NNW.
XPCG ANY PCPN FOR THAT SYS TO BE LIMITED TO FAR NNE AREAS OF FA
(AFT MDNGT). OTRW...ANOTHER NGT OF ST/FG DEVELOPMENT XPCD AFT
MDNGT...THOUGH UNCERTAIN OF AMT OF COVERAGE...BUT WRN AND SRN
PORTIONS HAVE THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD...WITH A LESSER PROB FARTHER
NE (IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPR SYS). LO TEMPS TNGT WILL RANGE
FM THE M50S TO L60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPR LVL LO PRES WILL CONT E ACRS SRN ENGLAND AND OFF THE CST INTO
WED NGT...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED TROF SFC-ALOFT THRU THE FCST AREA
WITH BKN CLDNS AND MAINLY SLGT CHC POPS (MAINLY NNE
PORTIONS). AFT ANY MRNG ST/FG...VRB CLDS TO PCLDY. HI TEMPS FM
THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHR...TO 75 TO 80F ELSW.

HI PRES FM NEW ENGLAND BUILDS SWD INTO THE REGION LATER WED NGT
THRU THU...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF ENE WINDS. MODELS
CONT TO SUGGEST THAT INLAND LOCATIONS HAVE A LO PROB FOR (ISLTD)
THU...ALONG WITH VRB CLDS. MAINLY PRTLY CLOUDY TWD THE CST. LO
TEMPS WED NGT WILL RANGE FM THE M50S TO L60S. HI TEMPS ON
THU MANLY FM THE MID 70S TO ARND 80.

A POTENT UPR LVL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LO PRES/CDFNT
(EXTENDING S TO ERN TX) WILL BE DIVING ESE THROUGH THE MIDWEST
THU NGT. THAT SYS WILL APPROACH THE MDATLC RGN ON FRI. AHEAD OF
IT...SSE WNDS BRING INCRSG MOISTURE WHICH WILL RESULT IN VRB CLDS
TO MCLDY CONDS AND PSBL ISOLD SHRAS. THE MOST WIDESPREAD PCPN
ASSOCIATED W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT XPCD TO RMN JUST W OF THE FA
THROUGH FRI AFTN. HI TEMPS FRI FM THE M/U70S ON THE ERN SHR TO L80S
ACRS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME CUT OFF OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING NE
INTO SE CANADA ON SUNDAY. STRONG JET ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH/UPPER LOW WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN OFFSHORE SATURDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE FROPA AND WILL CARRY HIGH LIKELY
POPS. STRONG FORCING BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY
TRIGGER AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO FRIDAY EVENING. WITH THE FRONT
EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE COAST AROUND 12Z SAT...SHOWER CHANCES WILL
QUICKLY COME TO AND END FROM WEST TO EAST BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. WILL
LIMIT SHWR CHANCES ON SATURDAY MORNING TO THE FAR EASTERN AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR DRY WX. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW LINGERS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH ANOTHER SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
SATURDAY 70-75. COOLER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 65-70. HIGHS MONDAY/TUESDAY
70-75.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COMBO OF THE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND ABUNDANT LL MSTR WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO ANTHR NITE OF IFR STRATUS/FOG TO DEVELOPMENT...EXCEPT FOR KECG/KORF
WHERE WINDS ~5KT WILL LIMIT RESTRICTIONS TO MVRF. STRATUS/FOG WILL
DISSIPATE/LIFT WEST TO EAST WED MORNING AHEAD OF APPRCHG CD FRNT
PROGGED FOR LATER IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...DRY WX IS XPCTD THRU FRI BUT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS
OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT LIGHT NE WINDS AOB 10KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS PA
TONIGHT...THEN NE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WED...BEFORE PUSHING
WELL OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. WINDS THRU THURSDAY WILL REMAIN OUT
OF THE N OR NE AOB 15KT. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 3-4 FT LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WED...HIGHEST OVER OFFSHORE WATERS. GUIDANCE BUILDS
SEAS TO AROUND 5 FT OFFSHORE BY WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HAVE HELD
OFF WITH SCA FLAGS FOR THE MOMENT WITH CONDITIONS STILL APPEARING
MARGINAL ATTM. WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE S-SW FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH CROSSES INTO THE AREA
EARLY SATURDAY...WITH WINDS QUICKLY SWINGING AROUND TO THE NW
POST-FRONT SATURDAY AFTN. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE FRI INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG/AJZ
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...MPR/DAP
MARINE...JDM




000
FXUS61 KPHI 010122 CCA
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
922 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO WORK IN FROM THE NORTH LATER ON WEDNESDAY.
THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO OUR EAST BY FRIDAY BEFORE A MORE POTENT COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
BREAK BETWEEN COLD FRONTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS OUT OF
SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS
EVENING AND IS EVER SO SLOWLY MOVING TOWARDS OUR AREA. THIS
ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THIS
AREA AND IS BEING ENHANCED BY A STRONG DIFFLUENT AREA ALOFT AND
VORTICITY IMPULSE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-UPPER LOW MOVING
INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. MEANWHILE, A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP A CONTINUED EASTERLY TO
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE. SHORT
TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY WEAKENING BEFORE IT GETS TO OUR AREA,
HOWEVER, SINCE IT IS APPROACHING THE AREA, HAVE DECIDED TO
INCREASE THE POPS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES AND EXTEND THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS A FEW HOURS. ELSEWHERE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAY STILL DEVELOP ANYWHERE AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT SLIDES
ACROSS THE AREA.

GUIDANCE WAS ALSO INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG, AND WE
KEPT THIS IN THE FORECAST WITH THE EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW AND AMPLE
MOISTURE. FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, WE MOSTLY TOOK A BLEND OF
MET/MAV GUIDANCE AND EXPECT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S, EXCEPT SOME
LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST AND IN MORE URBAN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LOW
WILL BE SWINGING BY TO OUR NORTHEAST, AND BY LATE IN THE DAY,
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD
OUR REGION. THERE WILL STILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY THROUGH MORNING TO ABOUT MIDDAY, AND
WE SLOWLY TRAIL POPS OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY
CLOUDY THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE SOME SLOW THINNING OCCURS LATE-DAY.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH
CONTINUITY, AND WE EXPECT HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
FEATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST SUCH FEATURE BEING THE
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW THAT SHOULD BE TO OUR IMMEDIATE
EAST. THEN WE HAVE THE POTENTIAL PHASING OF A STRONG NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST THAT CARVES OUT A VERY LARGE AND
DEEP CLOSED LOW/TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

THURSDAY...RATHER DRY DAY EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY ON
ACROSS OUR EASTERN PORTIONS. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME MID-LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL SCRAPES BY BUT
NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF WITH. MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BECOME MORE
PROMINENT ON THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD GIVE WAY TO LATE DAY SUNSHINE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW-70S; AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE MAY BE BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGING OVERHEAD A
BIT TOO FAST, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
STILL LINGERING BY AND THE APPROACH OF A DEEPENING TROUGH UPSTREAM,
THE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD SLIGHTLY BEFORE BREAKING. ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD
OF THE NEXT TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS
ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES BY LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DO NOT SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION WITH THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN THE STABLE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE. WE SEE A INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE AND POSSIBLY
INTENSITY BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT INCHES
CLOSER. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MUCH THE SAME, LOW-70S
WITH INCREASING COLD COVER.

SATURDAY...TRANSITION DAY WITH A STRONG FRONT EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THROUGH DURING THE MORNING HOURS. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL ALLOW PWATS TO CLIMB TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL MAKING FOR
HEAVIER RAINFALL. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE STILL PRETTY DRY ACROSS
THE REGION SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY TO OCCUR
WITH THE POSSIBLE HEAVIER RAIN. LOTS OF CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION OCCURRING DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID TO
UPPER-60S.

SUNDAY - TUESDAY...CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO DURING THE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.
PREFERRED THE CMC AND UKMET EVOLUTION OF THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
FIELD OVER THE GFS AND ECMWF...BOTH OF WHICH HAVE A MORE
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AND PLACEMENT OF THE CLOSED LOW FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT UNCERTAINTY AS SHOWN BY
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS SPREAD IN MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FIELDS FROM THE
MEAN AND THIS THINKING IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST MODEL
VERIFICATIONS WHICH INDICATE A LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTION.

EXPECT WINDS TO DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES
NOSES INTO THE REGION. IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES ENOUGH W/
LIGHT WINDS...COULD SEE LOW TEMPS IN THE 35-40 RANGE IN THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR OF OUR CWA. SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD...WITH 850 HPA TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...MID 50S IN THE POCONOS TO MID 60S
IN SOUTH JERSEY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY ON TUESDAY...PRESENTING THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO SEASONABLE LEVELS ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LATE EVENING THROUGH OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS TO START OUT,
BEFORE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAY IMPACT SEVERAL OF THE TAF SITES LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS MOST LIKELY AT
ABE/RDG. THERE REMAINS SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST, BUT
WE EXPECT MUCH OF THIS TO WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING THE AREA; WILL
AMEND IF THE STORMS GET WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS FROM A TAF SITE,
WHICH WOULD MOST LIKELY BE RDG AND AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH
THE MORNING, BEFORE BECOMING VFR AROUND MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON
FOR THE TAF SITES. AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER REMAINS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED,
MOSTLY IN THE 8 TO 10 KNOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MVFR EARLY BECOMING VFR. EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED.
POSSIBLE LINGERING SHOWER EARLY AT MIV/ACY, OTHERWISE DRY.

FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR. RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES LATE, OVERSPREADS THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS IN HEAVY SHOWERS. WINDS BACK SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR EARLY IN HEAVY RAIN, TRENDING VFR. WINDS
CONTINUE TO BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
AN EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY ACROSS OUR
AREA WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, AND FROM EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE DAYTIME, SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.
IN ADDITION, SEAS WILL ALSO BE BUILDING IN THE INCREASING NORTHEAST
FLOW. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO AROUND 4 FEET BY AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY, AND FORECAST LEVELS SHOULD REACH 5 FEET FROM ABOUT GREAT
EGG INLET NORTHWARD DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. WE THEREFORE
DECIDED TO RAISE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR NORTHERN ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS, FROM GREAT EGG INLET NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK,
BEGINNING AT 15Z WEDNESDAY.

FOR DELAWARE BAY, WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY - FRIDAY...SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ON OUR
WATERS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS WE CONTINUE WITH THE EASTERLY ONSHORE
FLOW. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND 5 FEET. WINDS BEGIN TO BACK
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

SATURDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE
WEST-NORTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY AND WITH STRONGER COLD AIR
ADVECTION OCCURRING, WE COULD SEE A RETURN TO SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ450>452.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...KLINE/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...FRANCK/HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLINE/ROBERTSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLINE






000
FXUS61 KPHI 010122 CCA
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
922 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO WORK IN FROM THE NORTH LATER ON WEDNESDAY.
THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO OUR EAST BY FRIDAY BEFORE A MORE POTENT COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
BREAK BETWEEN COLD FRONTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS OUT OF
SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS
EVENING AND IS EVER SO SLOWLY MOVING TOWARDS OUR AREA. THIS
ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THIS
AREA AND IS BEING ENHANCED BY A STRONG DIFFLUENT AREA ALOFT AND
VORTICITY IMPULSE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-UPPER LOW MOVING
INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. MEANWHILE, A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP A CONTINUED EASTERLY TO
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE. SHORT
TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY WEAKENING BEFORE IT GETS TO OUR AREA,
HOWEVER, SINCE IT IS APPROACHING THE AREA, HAVE DECIDED TO
INCREASE THE POPS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES AND EXTEND THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS A FEW HOURS. ELSEWHERE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAY STILL DEVELOP ANYWHERE AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT SLIDES
ACROSS THE AREA.

GUIDANCE WAS ALSO INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG, AND WE
KEPT THIS IN THE FORECAST WITH THE EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW AND AMPLE
MOISTURE. FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, WE MOSTLY TOOK A BLEND OF
MET/MAV GUIDANCE AND EXPECT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S, EXCEPT SOME
LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST AND IN MORE URBAN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LOW
WILL BE SWINGING BY TO OUR NORTHEAST, AND BY LATE IN THE DAY,
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD
OUR REGION. THERE WILL STILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY THROUGH MORNING TO ABOUT MIDDAY, AND
WE SLOWLY TRAIL POPS OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY
CLOUDY THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE SOME SLOW THINNING OCCURS LATE-DAY.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH
CONTINUITY, AND WE EXPECT HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
FEATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST SUCH FEATURE BEING THE
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW THAT SHOULD BE TO OUR IMMEDIATE
EAST. THEN WE HAVE THE POTENTIAL PHASING OF A STRONG NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST THAT CARVES OUT A VERY LARGE AND
DEEP CLOSED LOW/TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

THURSDAY...RATHER DRY DAY EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY ON
ACROSS OUR EASTERN PORTIONS. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME MID-LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL SCRAPES BY BUT
NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF WITH. MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BECOME MORE
PROMINENT ON THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD GIVE WAY TO LATE DAY SUNSHINE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW-70S; AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE MAY BE BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGING OVERHEAD A
BIT TOO FAST, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
STILL LINGERING BY AND THE APPROACH OF A DEEPENING TROUGH UPSTREAM,
THE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD SLIGHTLY BEFORE BREAKING. ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD
OF THE NEXT TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS
ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES BY LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DO NOT SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION WITH THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN THE STABLE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE. WE SEE A INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE AND POSSIBLY
INTENSITY BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT INCHES
CLOSER. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MUCH THE SAME, LOW-70S
WITH INCREASING COLD COVER.

SATURDAY...TRANSITION DAY WITH A STRONG FRONT EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THROUGH DURING THE MORNING HOURS. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL ALLOW PWATS TO CLIMB TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL MAKING FOR
HEAVIER RAINFALL. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE STILL PRETTY DRY ACROSS
THE REGION SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY TO OCCUR
WITH THE POSSIBLE HEAVIER RAIN. LOTS OF CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION OCCURRING DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID TO
UPPER-60S.

SUNDAY - TUESDAY...CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO DURING THE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.
PREFERRED THE CMC AND UKMET EVOLUTION OF THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
FIELD OVER THE GFS AND ECMWF...BOTH OF WHICH HAVE A MORE
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AND PLACEMENT OF THE CLOSED LOW FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT UNCERTAINTY AS SHOWN BY
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS SPREAD IN MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FIELDS FROM THE
MEAN AND THIS THINKING IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST MODEL
VERIFICATIONS WHICH INDICATE A LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTION.

EXPECT WINDS TO DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES
NOSES INTO THE REGION. IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES ENOUGH W/
LIGHT WINDS...COULD SEE LOW TEMPS IN THE 35-40 RANGE IN THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR OF OUR CWA. SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD...WITH 850 HPA TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...MID 50S IN THE POCONOS TO MID 60S
IN SOUTH JERSEY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY ON TUESDAY...PRESENTING THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO SEASONABLE LEVELS ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LATE EVENING THROUGH OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS TO START OUT,
BEFORE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAY IMPACT SEVERAL OF THE TAF SITES LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS MOST LIKELY AT
ABE/RDG. THERE REMAINS SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST, BUT
WE EXPECT MUCH OF THIS TO WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING THE AREA; WILL
AMEND IF THE STORMS GET WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS FROM A TAF SITE,
WHICH WOULD MOST LIKELY BE RDG AND AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH
THE MORNING, BEFORE BECOMING VFR AROUND MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON
FOR THE TAF SITES. AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER REMAINS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED,
MOSTLY IN THE 8 TO 10 KNOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MVFR EARLY BECOMING VFR. EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED.
POSSIBLE LINGERING SHOWER EARLY AT MIV/ACY, OTHERWISE DRY.

FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR. RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES LATE, OVERSPREADS THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS IN HEAVY SHOWERS. WINDS BACK SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR EARLY IN HEAVY RAIN, TRENDING VFR. WINDS
CONTINUE TO BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
AN EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY ACROSS OUR
AREA WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, AND FROM EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE DAYTIME, SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.
IN ADDITION, SEAS WILL ALSO BE BUILDING IN THE INCREASING NORTHEAST
FLOW. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO AROUND 4 FEET BY AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY, AND FORECAST LEVELS SHOULD REACH 5 FEET FROM ABOUT GREAT
EGG INLET NORTHWARD DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. WE THEREFORE
DECIDED TO RAISE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR NORTHERN ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS, FROM GREAT EGG INLET NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK,
BEGINNING AT 15Z WEDNESDAY.

FOR DELAWARE BAY, WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY - FRIDAY...SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ON OUR
WATERS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS WE CONTINUE WITH THE EASTERLY ONSHORE
FLOW. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND 5 FEET. WINDS BEGIN TO BACK
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

SATURDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE
WEST-NORTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY AND WITH STRONGER COLD AIR
ADVECTION OCCURRING, WE COULD SEE A RETURN TO SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ450>452.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...KLINE/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...FRANCK/HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLINE/ROBERTSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLINE







000
FXUS61 KPHI 010115
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
915 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO WORK IN FROM THE NORTH LATER ON WEDNESDAY.
THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO OUR EAST BY FRIDAY BEFORE A MORE POTENT COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
BREAK BETWEEN COLD FRONTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS OUT OF
SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS
EVENING AND IS EVER SO SLOWLY MOVING TOWARDS OUR AREA. THIS
ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THIS
AREA AND IS BEING ENHANCED BY A STRONG DIFFLUENT AREA ALOFT AND
VORTICITY IMPULSE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-UPPER LOW MOVING
INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. MEANWHILE, A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP A CONTINUED EASTERLY TO
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE. SHORT
TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY WEAKENING BEFORE IT GETS TO OUR AREA,
HOWEVER, SINCE IT IS APPROACHING THE AREA, HAVE DECIDED TO
INCREASE THE POPS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES AND EXTEND THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS A FEW HOURS. ELSEWHERE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAY STILL DEVELOP ANYWHERE AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT SLIDES
ACROSS THE AREA.

GUIDANCE WAS ALSO INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG, AND WE
KEPT THIS IN THE FORECAST WITH THE EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW AND AMPLE
MOISTURE. FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, WE MOSTLY TOOK A BLEND OF
MET/MAV GUIDANCE AND EXPECT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S, EXCEPT SOME
LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST AND IN MORE URBAN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LOW
WILL BE SWINGING BY TO OUR NORTHEAST, AND BY LATE IN THE DAY,
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD
OUR REGION. THERE WILL STILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY THROUGH MORNING TO ABOUT MIDDAY, AND
WE SLOWLY TRAIL POPS OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY
CLOUDY THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE SOME SLOW THINNING OCCURS LATE-DAY.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH
CONTINUITY, AND WE EXPECT HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
FEATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST SUCH FEATURE BEING THE
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW THAT SHOULD BE TO OUR IMMEDIATE
EAST. THEN WE HAVE THE POTENTIAL PHASING OF A STRONG NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST THAT CARVES OUT A VERY LARGE AND
DEEP CLOSED LOW/TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

THURSDAY...RATHER DRY DAY EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY ON
ACROSS OUR EASTERN PORTIONS. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME MID-LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL SCRAPES BY BUT
NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF WITH. MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BECOME MORE
PROMINENT ON THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD GIVE WAY TO LATE DAY SUNSHINE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW-70S; AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE MAY BE BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGING OVERHEAD A
BIT TOO FAST, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
STILL LINGERING BY AND THE APPROACH OF A DEEPENING TROUGH UPSTREAM,
THE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD SLIGHTLY BEFORE BREAKING. ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD
OF THE NEXT TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS
ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES BY LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DO NOT SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION WITH THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN THE STABLE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE. WE SEE A INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE AND POSSIBLY
INTENSITY BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT INCHES
CLOSER. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MUCH THE SAME, LOW-70S
WITH INCREASING COLD COVER.

SATURDAY...TRANSITION DAY WITH A STRONG FRONT EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THROUGH DURING THE MORNING HOURS. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL ALLOW PWATS TO CLIMB TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL MAKING FOR
HEAVIER RAINFALL. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE STILL PRETTY DRY ACROSS
THE REGION SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY TO OCCUR
WITH THE POSSIBLE HEAVIER RAIN. LOTS OF CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION OCCURRING DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID TO
UPPER-60S.

SUNDAY - TUESDAY...CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO DURING THE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.
PREFERRED THE CMC AND UKMET EVOLUTION OF THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
FIELD OVER THE GFS AND ECMWF...BOTH OF WHICH HAVE A MORE
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AND PLACEMENT OF THE CLOSED LOW FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT UNCERTAINTY AS SHOWN BY
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS SPREAD IN MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FIELDS FROM THE
MEAN AND THIS THINKING IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST MODEL
VERIFICATIONS WHICH INDICATE A LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTION.

EXPECT WINDS TO DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES
NOSES INTO THE REGION. IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES ENOUGH W/
LIGHT WINDS...COULD SEE LOW TEMPS IN THE 35-40 RANGE IN THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR OF OUR CWA. SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD...WITH 850 HPA TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...MID 50S IN THE POCONOS TO MID 60S
IN SOUTH JERSEY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY ON TUESDAY...PRESENTING THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO SEASONABLE LEVELS ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LATE EVENING THROUGH OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS TO START OUT,
BEFORE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAY IMPACT SEVERAL OF THE TAF SITES LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS MOST LIKELY AT
ABE/RDG. THERE REMAINS SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST, BUT
WE EXPECT MUCH OF THIS TO WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING THE AREA; WILL
AMEND IF THE STORMS GET WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS FROM A TAF SITE,
WHICH SOULD MOST LIKELY BE RDG AND AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH
THE MORNING, BEFORE BECOMING VFR AROUND MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON
FOR THE TAF SITES. AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER REMAINS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED,
MOSTLY IN THE 8 TO 10 KNOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MVFR EARLY BECOMING VFR. EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED.
POSSIBLE LINGERING SHOWER EARLY AT MIV/ACY, OTHERWISE DRY.

FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR. RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES LATE, OVERSPREADS THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS IN HEAVY SHOWERS. WINDS BACK SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR EARLY IN HEAVY RAIN, TRENDING VFR. WINDS
CONTINUE TO BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
AN EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY ACROSS OUR
AREA WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, AND FROM EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE DAYTIME, SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.
IN ADDITION, SEAS WILL ALSO BE BUILDING IN THE INCREASING NORTHEAST
FLOW. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO AROUND 4 FEET BY AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY, AND FORECAST LEVELS SHOULD REACH 5 FEET FROM ABOUT GREAT
EGG INLET NORTHWARD DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. WE THEREFORE
DECIDED TO RAISE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR NORTHERN ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS, FROM GREAT EGG INLET NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK,
BEGINNING AT 15Z WEDNESDAY.

FOR DELAWARE BAY, WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY - FRIDAY...SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ON OUR
WATERS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS WE CONTINUE WITH THE EASTERLY ONSHORE
FLOW. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND 5 FEET. WINDS BEGIN TO BACK
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

SATURDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE
WEST-NORTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY AND WITH STRONGER COLD AIR
ADVECTION OCCURRING, WE COULD SEE A RETURN TO SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ450>452.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...KLINE/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...FRANCK/HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLINE/ROBERTSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLINE




000
FXUS61 KPHI 010115
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
915 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO WORK IN FROM THE NORTH LATER ON WEDNESDAY.
THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO OUR EAST BY FRIDAY BEFORE A MORE POTENT COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
BREAK BETWEEN COLD FRONTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS OUT OF
SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS
EVENING AND IS EVER SO SLOWLY MOVING TOWARDS OUR AREA. THIS
ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THIS
AREA AND IS BEING ENHANCED BY A STRONG DIFFLUENT AREA ALOFT AND
VORTICITY IMPULSE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-UPPER LOW MOVING
INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. MEANWHILE, A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP A CONTINUED EASTERLY TO
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE. SHORT
TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY WEAKENING BEFORE IT GETS TO OUR AREA,
HOWEVER, SINCE IT IS APPROACHING THE AREA, HAVE DECIDED TO
INCREASE THE POPS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES AND EXTEND THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS A FEW HOURS. ELSEWHERE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAY STILL DEVELOP ANYWHERE AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT SLIDES
ACROSS THE AREA.

GUIDANCE WAS ALSO INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG, AND WE
KEPT THIS IN THE FORECAST WITH THE EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW AND AMPLE
MOISTURE. FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, WE MOSTLY TOOK A BLEND OF
MET/MAV GUIDANCE AND EXPECT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S, EXCEPT SOME
LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST AND IN MORE URBAN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LOW
WILL BE SWINGING BY TO OUR NORTHEAST, AND BY LATE IN THE DAY,
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD
OUR REGION. THERE WILL STILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY THROUGH MORNING TO ABOUT MIDDAY, AND
WE SLOWLY TRAIL POPS OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY
CLOUDY THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE SOME SLOW THINNING OCCURS LATE-DAY.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH
CONTINUITY, AND WE EXPECT HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
FEATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST SUCH FEATURE BEING THE
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW THAT SHOULD BE TO OUR IMMEDIATE
EAST. THEN WE HAVE THE POTENTIAL PHASING OF A STRONG NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST THAT CARVES OUT A VERY LARGE AND
DEEP CLOSED LOW/TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

THURSDAY...RATHER DRY DAY EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY ON
ACROSS OUR EASTERN PORTIONS. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME MID-LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL SCRAPES BY BUT
NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF WITH. MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BECOME MORE
PROMINENT ON THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD GIVE WAY TO LATE DAY SUNSHINE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW-70S; AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE MAY BE BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGING OVERHEAD A
BIT TOO FAST, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
STILL LINGERING BY AND THE APPROACH OF A DEEPENING TROUGH UPSTREAM,
THE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD SLIGHTLY BEFORE BREAKING. ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD
OF THE NEXT TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS
ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES BY LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DO NOT SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION WITH THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN THE STABLE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE. WE SEE A INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE AND POSSIBLY
INTENSITY BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT INCHES
CLOSER. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MUCH THE SAME, LOW-70S
WITH INCREASING COLD COVER.

SATURDAY...TRANSITION DAY WITH A STRONG FRONT EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THROUGH DURING THE MORNING HOURS. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL ALLOW PWATS TO CLIMB TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL MAKING FOR
HEAVIER RAINFALL. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE STILL PRETTY DRY ACROSS
THE REGION SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY TO OCCUR
WITH THE POSSIBLE HEAVIER RAIN. LOTS OF CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION OCCURRING DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID TO
UPPER-60S.

SUNDAY - TUESDAY...CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO DURING THE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.
PREFERRED THE CMC AND UKMET EVOLUTION OF THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
FIELD OVER THE GFS AND ECMWF...BOTH OF WHICH HAVE A MORE
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AND PLACEMENT OF THE CLOSED LOW FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT UNCERTAINTY AS SHOWN BY
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS SPREAD IN MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FIELDS FROM THE
MEAN AND THIS THINKING IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST MODEL
VERIFICATIONS WHICH INDICATE A LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTION.

EXPECT WINDS TO DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES
NOSES INTO THE REGION. IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES ENOUGH W/
LIGHT WINDS...COULD SEE LOW TEMPS IN THE 35-40 RANGE IN THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR OF OUR CWA. SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD...WITH 850 HPA TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...MID 50S IN THE POCONOS TO MID 60S
IN SOUTH JERSEY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY ON TUESDAY...PRESENTING THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO SEASONABLE LEVELS ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LATE EVENING THROUGH OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS TO START OUT,
BEFORE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAY IMPACT SEVERAL OF THE TAF SITES LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS MOST LIKELY AT
ABE/RDG. THERE REMAINS SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST, BUT
WE EXPECT MUCH OF THIS TO WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING THE AREA; WILL
AMEND IF THE STORMS GET WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS FROM A TAF SITE,
WHICH SOULD MOST LIKELY BE RDG AND AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH
THE MORNING, BEFORE BECOMING VFR AROUND MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON
FOR THE TAF SITES. AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER REMAINS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED,
MOSTLY IN THE 8 TO 10 KNOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MVFR EARLY BECOMING VFR. EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED.
POSSIBLE LINGERING SHOWER EARLY AT MIV/ACY, OTHERWISE DRY.

FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR. RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES LATE, OVERSPREADS THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS IN HEAVY SHOWERS. WINDS BACK SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR EARLY IN HEAVY RAIN, TRENDING VFR. WINDS
CONTINUE TO BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
AN EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY ACROSS OUR
AREA WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, AND FROM EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE DAYTIME, SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.
IN ADDITION, SEAS WILL ALSO BE BUILDING IN THE INCREASING NORTHEAST
FLOW. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO AROUND 4 FEET BY AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY, AND FORECAST LEVELS SHOULD REACH 5 FEET FROM ABOUT GREAT
EGG INLET NORTHWARD DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. WE THEREFORE
DECIDED TO RAISE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR NORTHERN ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS, FROM GREAT EGG INLET NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK,
BEGINNING AT 15Z WEDNESDAY.

FOR DELAWARE BAY, WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY - FRIDAY...SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ON OUR
WATERS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS WE CONTINUE WITH THE EASTERLY ONSHORE
FLOW. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND 5 FEET. WINDS BEGIN TO BACK
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

SATURDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE
WEST-NORTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY AND WITH STRONGER COLD AIR
ADVECTION OCCURRING, WE COULD SEE A RETURN TO SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ450>452.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...KLINE/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...FRANCK/HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLINE/ROBERTSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLINE




  [top]

000
FXUS61 KLWX 010103
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
903 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN TO THE EAST COAST LATER WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY. A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
WILL FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

S/WV EJECTING FM H5 LOW SPINNING OVER UPR OHVLY SPREADING SHRA AND
A FEW TSRA ACRS CWFA. THE MORE VIGOROUS TSRA/HIER RAFL RATES SEEM
TO BE IN SRN PA XTNDG INTO MD. THERE WAS A HAIL THREAT ERLR. DUE
TO LWR SUN ANGLE AND SUNSET PRIOR TO 7PM...HVY RA AND WIND GUSTS
15-25 MPH WL MARK THE TOP END OF ACTIVITY. HRRR HAS BEEN DOING A
DECENT JOB TRACKING ACTIVITY...ALTHO PRVS CPL RUNS MAY HV BEEN A
LTL BIT SLOW. LTST RUN HAS ACCOUNTED FOR THIS...AND TAKES ACTIVITY
E OF CWFA BY/SOON AFTER MIDNGT. WL ADJUST DATABASE ACCRDGLY.

BIGGER STORY OVERNIGHT MAY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT.
PM SHRA/TSRA WL ADD TO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. THE QUESTION
IS WHETHER CLDS WL PART ENOUGH FOR RADIATION TO TAKE PLACE. IR
SATPIX ACRS WVA CASTS SOME DOUBT ON THAT. WL CONT W/ THE OVERALL
CONCEPT OF PATCHY FOG AFTR MIDNGT AND AREAS OF FOG PRE-DAWN.
/THERE SHUD BE SOME BINOVC./ HWVR...HV RAISED VSBYS UP A LTL. /ITS
A BIAS OF MOST GDNC./ AM NOT AT ALL CONFIDENT ON DENSE FOG ATTM.

UPPER LOW WILL PULL AWAY TO THE NORTH AND EAST ON WEDNESDAY. FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY WITH A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH NOSING INTO THE REGION WILL KEEP AN
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WIND FETCH IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS THAN CLEAR SKY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.

AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC...MID- AND
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL LOWER AND THICKEN
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE OF
SHOWERS PRECEDING THIS TROUGH COULD APPROACH THE WESTERN SLOPES BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY...BUT THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS
THE MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER
AND THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS PRECEDING THE
FRONT EXPECTING TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. MOST AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS
SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY DRY DURING THE DAY. MODELS ARE STILL
DIVERGENT ON TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH WHICH WILL DETERMINE
EXACTLY WHO GETS HOW MUCH RAIN AND WHEN. FORCING WITH THE TROUGH IS
STRONG BUT THERE IS NOT MUCH INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...SO WHILE A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THE CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT WIDESPREAD THUNDER IS UNLIKELY. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGER/HEAVIER BANDS OF RAIN COULD BE
REALIZED ESPECIALLY IF THE TROUGH ENDS UP BEING ON THE STRONGER SIDE.

MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT BY LATER SATURDAY AFTER THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION AND STICK AROUND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...PERHAPS
ISOLATED FREEZING TEMPERATURE READINGS ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES
SATURDAY NIGHT IF WINDS SLACKEN A TAD QUICKER THAN GUIDANCE IS
CURRENTLY SUGGESTING.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK BUT MODELS ARE HIGHLY DIVERGENT ON WHEN IT AND ITS IMPACTS
REACH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDS ACRS ALL TERMINALS ATTM. A LINE OF SHRA/TSRA ALIGNED W/
BLURDG ATTM WL TRACK EWD ACRS HUBS THRU 03Z. STABILITY MARGINAL.
SUSPECT ACTIVITY WL WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT APPROACHES. BRIEF FLGT
RESTRICTIONS LKLY DURING ITS PASSAGE...MOSTLY MVFR. WL ATTEMPT TO
PLACE 1 HR TEMPOS IN TAFS SHORTLY.

LOW CIGS AND FOG A GOOD BET OVERNIGHT....MIXING OUT BY LATE
MORNING OR MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. WENT A TOUCH MORE OPTIMISTIC THATN
PRVS FCST CYCLE...BUT STILL HV SUB-IFR CIGS FOR MRNG PUSH.

CIG AND PSBL VSBY RESTRICTIONS LATE WED NIGHT-THU AM AND AGAIN THU
NIGHT INTO FRI AM WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW PORTRAYED IN ALL THE
GUIDANCE. CLIMO IS FAVORABLE FOR FOG/STRATUS THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
SO THAT LENDS TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHWRS/ISO TSTMS IN ONE OR MORE
BANDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PSBL W/ GUSTY WINDS FRI-FRI NIGHT. VFR
SAT AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE W OR NW.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SOLID SCA CONDITIONS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THIS WEEKEND BOTH AHEAD OF /SOUTHERLY FLOW/ AND BEHIND
/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW/ A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT. WINDS/SEAS
GRADUALLY ABATE AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...HTS/KRW
SHORT TERM...DFH
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...HTS/KRW/DFH
MARINE...HTS/KRW/DFH








000
FXUS61 KLWX 010103
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
903 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN TO THE EAST COAST LATER WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY. A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
WILL FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

S/WV EJECTING FM H5 LOW SPINNING OVER UPR OHVLY SPREADING SHRA AND
A FEW TSRA ACRS CWFA. THE MORE VIGOROUS TSRA/HIER RAFL RATES SEEM
TO BE IN SRN PA XTNDG INTO MD. THERE WAS A HAIL THREAT ERLR. DUE
TO LWR SUN ANGLE AND SUNSET PRIOR TO 7PM...HVY RA AND WIND GUSTS
15-25 MPH WL MARK THE TOP END OF ACTIVITY. HRRR HAS BEEN DOING A
DECENT JOB TRACKING ACTIVITY...ALTHO PRVS CPL RUNS MAY HV BEEN A
LTL BIT SLOW. LTST RUN HAS ACCOUNTED FOR THIS...AND TAKES ACTIVITY
E OF CWFA BY/SOON AFTER MIDNGT. WL ADJUST DATABASE ACCRDGLY.

BIGGER STORY OVERNIGHT MAY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT.
PM SHRA/TSRA WL ADD TO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. THE QUESTION
IS WHETHER CLDS WL PART ENOUGH FOR RADIATION TO TAKE PLACE. IR
SATPIX ACRS WVA CASTS SOME DOUBT ON THAT. WL CONT W/ THE OVERALL
CONCEPT OF PATCHY FOG AFTR MIDNGT AND AREAS OF FOG PRE-DAWN.
/THERE SHUD BE SOME BINOVC./ HWVR...HV RAISED VSBYS UP A LTL. /ITS
A BIAS OF MOST GDNC./ AM NOT AT ALL CONFIDENT ON DENSE FOG ATTM.

UPPER LOW WILL PULL AWAY TO THE NORTH AND EAST ON WEDNESDAY. FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY WITH A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH NOSING INTO THE REGION WILL KEEP AN
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WIND FETCH IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS THAN CLEAR SKY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.

AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC...MID- AND
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL LOWER AND THICKEN
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE OF
SHOWERS PRECEDING THIS TROUGH COULD APPROACH THE WESTERN SLOPES BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY...BUT THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS
THE MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER
AND THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS PRECEDING THE
FRONT EXPECTING TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. MOST AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS
SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY DRY DURING THE DAY. MODELS ARE STILL
DIVERGENT ON TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH WHICH WILL DETERMINE
EXACTLY WHO GETS HOW MUCH RAIN AND WHEN. FORCING WITH THE TROUGH IS
STRONG BUT THERE IS NOT MUCH INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...SO WHILE A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THE CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT WIDESPREAD THUNDER IS UNLIKELY. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGER/HEAVIER BANDS OF RAIN COULD BE
REALIZED ESPECIALLY IF THE TROUGH ENDS UP BEING ON THE STRONGER SIDE.

MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT BY LATER SATURDAY AFTER THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION AND STICK AROUND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...PERHAPS
ISOLATED FREEZING TEMPERATURE READINGS ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES
SATURDAY NIGHT IF WINDS SLACKEN A TAD QUICKER THAN GUIDANCE IS
CURRENTLY SUGGESTING.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK BUT MODELS ARE HIGHLY DIVERGENT ON WHEN IT AND ITS IMPACTS
REACH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDS ACRS ALL TERMINALS ATTM. A LINE OF SHRA/TSRA ALIGNED W/
BLURDG ATTM WL TRACK EWD ACRS HUBS THRU 03Z. STABILITY MARGINAL.
SUSPECT ACTIVITY WL WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT APPROACHES. BRIEF FLGT
RESTRICTIONS LKLY DURING ITS PASSAGE...MOSTLY MVFR. WL ATTEMPT TO
PLACE 1 HR TEMPOS IN TAFS SHORTLY.

LOW CIGS AND FOG A GOOD BET OVERNIGHT....MIXING OUT BY LATE
MORNING OR MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. WENT A TOUCH MORE OPTIMISTIC THATN
PRVS FCST CYCLE...BUT STILL HV SUB-IFR CIGS FOR MRNG PUSH.

CIG AND PSBL VSBY RESTRICTIONS LATE WED NIGHT-THU AM AND AGAIN THU
NIGHT INTO FRI AM WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW PORTRAYED IN ALL THE
GUIDANCE. CLIMO IS FAVORABLE FOR FOG/STRATUS THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
SO THAT LENDS TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHWRS/ISO TSTMS IN ONE OR MORE
BANDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PSBL W/ GUSTY WINDS FRI-FRI NIGHT. VFR
SAT AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE W OR NW.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SOLID SCA CONDITIONS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THIS WEEKEND BOTH AHEAD OF /SOUTHERLY FLOW/ AND BEHIND
/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW/ A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT. WINDS/SEAS
GRADUALLY ABATE AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...HTS/KRW
SHORT TERM...DFH
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...HTS/KRW/DFH
MARINE...HTS/KRW/DFH








000
FXUS61 KLWX 010103
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
903 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN TO THE EAST COAST LATER WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY. A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
WILL FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

S/WV EJECTING FM H5 LOW SPINNING OVER UPR OHVLY SPREADING SHRA AND
A FEW TSRA ACRS CWFA. THE MORE VIGOROUS TSRA/HIER RAFL RATES SEEM
TO BE IN SRN PA XTNDG INTO MD. THERE WAS A HAIL THREAT ERLR. DUE
TO LWR SUN ANGLE AND SUNSET PRIOR TO 7PM...HVY RA AND WIND GUSTS
15-25 MPH WL MARK THE TOP END OF ACTIVITY. HRRR HAS BEEN DOING A
DECENT JOB TRACKING ACTIVITY...ALTHO PRVS CPL RUNS MAY HV BEEN A
LTL BIT SLOW. LTST RUN HAS ACCOUNTED FOR THIS...AND TAKES ACTIVITY
E OF CWFA BY/SOON AFTER MIDNGT. WL ADJUST DATABASE ACCRDGLY.

BIGGER STORY OVERNIGHT MAY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT.
PM SHRA/TSRA WL ADD TO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. THE QUESTION
IS WHETHER CLDS WL PART ENOUGH FOR RADIATION TO TAKE PLACE. IR
SATPIX ACRS WVA CASTS SOME DOUBT ON THAT. WL CONT W/ THE OVERALL
CONCEPT OF PATCHY FOG AFTR MIDNGT AND AREAS OF FOG PRE-DAWN.
/THERE SHUD BE SOME BINOVC./ HWVR...HV RAISED VSBYS UP A LTL. /ITS
A BIAS OF MOST GDNC./ AM NOT AT ALL CONFIDENT ON DENSE FOG ATTM.

UPPER LOW WILL PULL AWAY TO THE NORTH AND EAST ON WEDNESDAY. FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY WITH A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH NOSING INTO THE REGION WILL KEEP AN
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WIND FETCH IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS THAN CLEAR SKY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.

AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC...MID- AND
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL LOWER AND THICKEN
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE OF
SHOWERS PRECEDING THIS TROUGH COULD APPROACH THE WESTERN SLOPES BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY...BUT THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS
THE MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER
AND THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS PRECEDING THE
FRONT EXPECTING TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. MOST AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS
SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY DRY DURING THE DAY. MODELS ARE STILL
DIVERGENT ON TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH WHICH WILL DETERMINE
EXACTLY WHO GETS HOW MUCH RAIN AND WHEN. FORCING WITH THE TROUGH IS
STRONG BUT THERE IS NOT MUCH INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...SO WHILE A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THE CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT WIDESPREAD THUNDER IS UNLIKELY. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGER/HEAVIER BANDS OF RAIN COULD BE
REALIZED ESPECIALLY IF THE TROUGH ENDS UP BEING ON THE STRONGER SIDE.

MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT BY LATER SATURDAY AFTER THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION AND STICK AROUND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...PERHAPS
ISOLATED FREEZING TEMPERATURE READINGS ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES
SATURDAY NIGHT IF WINDS SLACKEN A TAD QUICKER THAN GUIDANCE IS
CURRENTLY SUGGESTING.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK BUT MODELS ARE HIGHLY DIVERGENT ON WHEN IT AND ITS IMPACTS
REACH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDS ACRS ALL TERMINALS ATTM. A LINE OF SHRA/TSRA ALIGNED W/
BLURDG ATTM WL TRACK EWD ACRS HUBS THRU 03Z. STABILITY MARGINAL.
SUSPECT ACTIVITY WL WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT APPROACHES. BRIEF FLGT
RESTRICTIONS LKLY DURING ITS PASSAGE...MOSTLY MVFR. WL ATTEMPT TO
PLACE 1 HR TEMPOS IN TAFS SHORTLY.

LOW CIGS AND FOG A GOOD BET OVERNIGHT....MIXING OUT BY LATE
MORNING OR MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. WENT A TOUCH MORE OPTIMISTIC THATN
PRVS FCST CYCLE...BUT STILL HV SUB-IFR CIGS FOR MRNG PUSH.

CIG AND PSBL VSBY RESTRICTIONS LATE WED NIGHT-THU AM AND AGAIN THU
NIGHT INTO FRI AM WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW PORTRAYED IN ALL THE
GUIDANCE. CLIMO IS FAVORABLE FOR FOG/STRATUS THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
SO THAT LENDS TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHWRS/ISO TSTMS IN ONE OR MORE
BANDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PSBL W/ GUSTY WINDS FRI-FRI NIGHT. VFR
SAT AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE W OR NW.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SOLID SCA CONDITIONS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THIS WEEKEND BOTH AHEAD OF /SOUTHERLY FLOW/ AND BEHIND
/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW/ A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT. WINDS/SEAS
GRADUALLY ABATE AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...HTS/KRW
SHORT TERM...DFH
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...HTS/KRW/DFH
MARINE...HTS/KRW/DFH








000
FXUS61 KLWX 010103
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
903 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN TO THE EAST COAST LATER WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY. A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
WILL FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

S/WV EJECTING FM H5 LOW SPINNING OVER UPR OHVLY SPREADING SHRA AND
A FEW TSRA ACRS CWFA. THE MORE VIGOROUS TSRA/HIER RAFL RATES SEEM
TO BE IN SRN PA XTNDG INTO MD. THERE WAS A HAIL THREAT ERLR. DUE
TO LWR SUN ANGLE AND SUNSET PRIOR TO 7PM...HVY RA AND WIND GUSTS
15-25 MPH WL MARK THE TOP END OF ACTIVITY. HRRR HAS BEEN DOING A
DECENT JOB TRACKING ACTIVITY...ALTHO PRVS CPL RUNS MAY HV BEEN A
LTL BIT SLOW. LTST RUN HAS ACCOUNTED FOR THIS...AND TAKES ACTIVITY
E OF CWFA BY/SOON AFTER MIDNGT. WL ADJUST DATABASE ACCRDGLY.

BIGGER STORY OVERNIGHT MAY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT.
PM SHRA/TSRA WL ADD TO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. THE QUESTION
IS WHETHER CLDS WL PART ENOUGH FOR RADIATION TO TAKE PLACE. IR
SATPIX ACRS WVA CASTS SOME DOUBT ON THAT. WL CONT W/ THE OVERALL
CONCEPT OF PATCHY FOG AFTR MIDNGT AND AREAS OF FOG PRE-DAWN.
/THERE SHUD BE SOME BINOVC./ HWVR...HV RAISED VSBYS UP A LTL. /ITS
A BIAS OF MOST GDNC./ AM NOT AT ALL CONFIDENT ON DENSE FOG ATTM.

UPPER LOW WILL PULL AWAY TO THE NORTH AND EAST ON WEDNESDAY. FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY WITH A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH NOSING INTO THE REGION WILL KEEP AN
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WIND FETCH IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS THAN CLEAR SKY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.

AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC...MID- AND
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL LOWER AND THICKEN
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE OF
SHOWERS PRECEDING THIS TROUGH COULD APPROACH THE WESTERN SLOPES BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY...BUT THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS
THE MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER
AND THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS PRECEDING THE
FRONT EXPECTING TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. MOST AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS
SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY DRY DURING THE DAY. MODELS ARE STILL
DIVERGENT ON TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH WHICH WILL DETERMINE
EXACTLY WHO GETS HOW MUCH RAIN AND WHEN. FORCING WITH THE TROUGH IS
STRONG BUT THERE IS NOT MUCH INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...SO WHILE A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THE CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT WIDESPREAD THUNDER IS UNLIKELY. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGER/HEAVIER BANDS OF RAIN COULD BE
REALIZED ESPECIALLY IF THE TROUGH ENDS UP BEING ON THE STRONGER SIDE.

MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT BY LATER SATURDAY AFTER THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION AND STICK AROUND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...PERHAPS
ISOLATED FREEZING TEMPERATURE READINGS ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES
SATURDAY NIGHT IF WINDS SLACKEN A TAD QUICKER THAN GUIDANCE IS
CURRENTLY SUGGESTING.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK BUT MODELS ARE HIGHLY DIVERGENT ON WHEN IT AND ITS IMPACTS
REACH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDS ACRS ALL TERMINALS ATTM. A LINE OF SHRA/TSRA ALIGNED W/
BLURDG ATTM WL TRACK EWD ACRS HUBS THRU 03Z. STABILITY MARGINAL.
SUSPECT ACTIVITY WL WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT APPROACHES. BRIEF FLGT
RESTRICTIONS LKLY DURING ITS PASSAGE...MOSTLY MVFR. WL ATTEMPT TO
PLACE 1 HR TEMPOS IN TAFS SHORTLY.

LOW CIGS AND FOG A GOOD BET OVERNIGHT....MIXING OUT BY LATE
MORNING OR MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. WENT A TOUCH MORE OPTIMISTIC THATN
PRVS FCST CYCLE...BUT STILL HV SUB-IFR CIGS FOR MRNG PUSH.

CIG AND PSBL VSBY RESTRICTIONS LATE WED NIGHT-THU AM AND AGAIN THU
NIGHT INTO FRI AM WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW PORTRAYED IN ALL THE
GUIDANCE. CLIMO IS FAVORABLE FOR FOG/STRATUS THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
SO THAT LENDS TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHWRS/ISO TSTMS IN ONE OR MORE
BANDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PSBL W/ GUSTY WINDS FRI-FRI NIGHT. VFR
SAT AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE W OR NW.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SOLID SCA CONDITIONS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THIS WEEKEND BOTH AHEAD OF /SOUTHERLY FLOW/ AND BEHIND
/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW/ A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT. WINDS/SEAS
GRADUALLY ABATE AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...HTS/KRW
SHORT TERM...DFH
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...HTS/KRW/DFH
MARINE...HTS/KRW/DFH








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010047
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
847 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR MOST
OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ST HAS RMND STUBBORN OVR MOST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FA INTO MID
THIS AFTN WHILE ERN AREAS HAVE HAD SCT CLDNS. CONTD DISSIPATION OF
THE ST XPCD INTO THIS EVE...LEADING TO MNLY PCLDY CONDS OVR THE FA
INTO THE OVRNGT HRS. UPR LVL LO PRES WILL TRACK ACRS PA
TNGT...PUSHING ITS ACCOMPANYING CDFNT CLOSER TO THE FA FM THE NNW.
XPCG ANY PCPN FOR THAT SYS TO BE LIMITED TO FAR NNE AREAS OF FA
(AFT MDNGT). OTRW...ANOTHER NGT OF ST/FG DEVELOPMENT XPCD AFT
MDNGT...THOUGH UNCERTAIN OF AMT OF COVERAGE. LO TEMPS TNGT WILL
RANGE FM THE M50S TO L60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPR LVL LO PRES WILL CONT E ACRS SRN ENGLAND AND OFF THE CST INTO
WED NGT...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED TROF SFC-ALOFT THRU THE FCST AREA
WITH BKN CLDNS AND MAINLY SLGT CHC POPS (MAINLY NNE
PORTIONS). AFT ANY MRNG ST/FG...VRB CLDS TO PCLDY. HI TEMPS FM
THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHR...TO 75 TO 80F ELSW.

HI PRES FM NEW ENGLAND BUILDS SWD INTO THE REGION LATER WED NGT
THRU THU...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF ENE WINDS. MODELS
CONT TO SUGGEST THAT INLAND LOCATIONS HAVE A LO PROB FOR (ISLTD)
THU...ALONG WITH VRB CLDS. MAINLY PRTLY CLOUDY TWD THE CST. LO
TEMPS WED NGT WILL RANGE FM THE M50S TO L60S. HI TEMPS ON
THU MANLY FM THE MID 70S TO ARND 80.

A POTENT UPR LVL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LO PRES/CDFNT
(EXTENDING S TO ERN TX) WILL BE DIVING ESE THROUGH THE MIDWEST
THU NGT. THAT SYS WILL APPROACH THE MDATLC RGN ON FRI. AHEAD OF
IT...SSE WNDS BRING INCRSG MOISTURE WHICH WILL RESULT IN VRB CLDS
TO MCLDY CONDS AND PSBL ISOLD SHRAS. THE MOST WIDESPREAD PCPN
ASSOCIATED W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT XPCD TO RMN JUST W OF THE FA
THROUGH FRI AFTN. HI TEMPS FRI FM THE M/U70S ON THE ERN SHR TO L80S
ACRS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME CUT OFF OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING NE
INTO SE CANADA ON SUNDAY. STRONG JET ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH/UPPER LOW WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN OFFSHORE SATURDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE FROPA AND WILL CARRY HIGH LIKELY
POPS. STRONG FORCING BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY
TRIGGER AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO FRIDAY EVENING. WITH THE FRONT
EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE COAST AROUND 12Z SAT...SHOWER CHANCES WILL
QUICKLY COME TO AND END FROM WEST TO EAST BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. WILL
LIMIT SHWR CHANCES ON SATURDAY MORNING TO THE FAR EASTERN AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR DRY WX. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW LINGERS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH ANOTHER SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
SATURDAY 70-75. COOLER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 65-70. HIGHS MONDAY/TUESDAY
70-75.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COMBO OF THE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND ABUNDANT LL MSTR WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO ANTHR NITE OF IFR STRATUS/FOG TO DEVELOPMENT...EXCEPT FOR KECG/KORF
WHERE WINDS ~5KT WILL LIMIT RESTRICTIONS TO MVRF. STRATUS/FOG WILL
DISSIPATE/LIFT WEST TO EAST WED MORNING AHEAD OF APPRCHG CD FRNT
PROGGED FOR LATER IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...DRY WX IS XPCTD THRU FRI BUT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS
OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT LIGHT NE WINDS AOB 10KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS PA
TONIGHT...THEN NE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WED...BEFORE PUSHING
WELL OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. WINDS THRU THURSDAY WILL REMAIN OUT
OF THE N OR NE AOB 15KT. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 3-4 FT LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WED...HIGHEST OVER OFFSHORE WATERS. GUIDANCE BUILDS
SEAS TO AROUND 5 FT OFFSHORE BY WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HAVE HELD
OFF WITH SCA FLAGS FOR THE MOMENT WITH CONDITIONS STILL APPEARING
MARGINAL ATTM. WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE S-SW FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH CROSSES INTO THE AREA
EARLY SATURDAY...WITH WINDS QUICKLY SWINGING AROUND TO THE NW
POST-FRONT SATURDAY AFTN. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE FRI INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...MPR/DAP
MARINE...JDM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010047
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
847 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR MOST
OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ST HAS RMND STUBBORN OVR MOST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FA INTO MID
THIS AFTN WHILE ERN AREAS HAVE HAD SCT CLDNS. CONTD DISSIPATION OF
THE ST XPCD INTO THIS EVE...LEADING TO MNLY PCLDY CONDS OVR THE FA
INTO THE OVRNGT HRS. UPR LVL LO PRES WILL TRACK ACRS PA
TNGT...PUSHING ITS ACCOMPANYING CDFNT CLOSER TO THE FA FM THE NNW.
XPCG ANY PCPN FOR THAT SYS TO BE LIMITED TO FAR NNE AREAS OF FA
(AFT MDNGT). OTRW...ANOTHER NGT OF ST/FG DEVELOPMENT XPCD AFT
MDNGT...THOUGH UNCERTAIN OF AMT OF COVERAGE. LO TEMPS TNGT WILL
RANGE FM THE M50S TO L60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPR LVL LO PRES WILL CONT E ACRS SRN ENGLAND AND OFF THE CST INTO
WED NGT...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED TROF SFC-ALOFT THRU THE FCST AREA
WITH BKN CLDNS AND MAINLY SLGT CHC POPS (MAINLY NNE
PORTIONS). AFT ANY MRNG ST/FG...VRB CLDS TO PCLDY. HI TEMPS FM
THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHR...TO 75 TO 80F ELSW.

HI PRES FM NEW ENGLAND BUILDS SWD INTO THE REGION LATER WED NGT
THRU THU...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF ENE WINDS. MODELS
CONT TO SUGGEST THAT INLAND LOCATIONS HAVE A LO PROB FOR (ISLTD)
THU...ALONG WITH VRB CLDS. MAINLY PRTLY CLOUDY TWD THE CST. LO
TEMPS WED NGT WILL RANGE FM THE M50S TO L60S. HI TEMPS ON
THU MANLY FM THE MID 70S TO ARND 80.

A POTENT UPR LVL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LO PRES/CDFNT
(EXTENDING S TO ERN TX) WILL BE DIVING ESE THROUGH THE MIDWEST
THU NGT. THAT SYS WILL APPROACH THE MDATLC RGN ON FRI. AHEAD OF
IT...SSE WNDS BRING INCRSG MOISTURE WHICH WILL RESULT IN VRB CLDS
TO MCLDY CONDS AND PSBL ISOLD SHRAS. THE MOST WIDESPREAD PCPN
ASSOCIATED W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT XPCD TO RMN JUST W OF THE FA
THROUGH FRI AFTN. HI TEMPS FRI FM THE M/U70S ON THE ERN SHR TO L80S
ACRS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME CUT OFF OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING NE
INTO SE CANADA ON SUNDAY. STRONG JET ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH/UPPER LOW WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN OFFSHORE SATURDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE FROPA AND WILL CARRY HIGH LIKELY
POPS. STRONG FORCING BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY
TRIGGER AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO FRIDAY EVENING. WITH THE FRONT
EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE COAST AROUND 12Z SAT...SHOWER CHANCES WILL
QUICKLY COME TO AND END FROM WEST TO EAST BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. WILL
LIMIT SHWR CHANCES ON SATURDAY MORNING TO THE FAR EASTERN AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR DRY WX. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW LINGERS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH ANOTHER SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
SATURDAY 70-75. COOLER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 65-70. HIGHS MONDAY/TUESDAY
70-75.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COMBO OF THE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND ABUNDANT LL MSTR WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO ANTHR NITE OF IFR STRATUS/FOG TO DEVELOPMENT...EXCEPT FOR KECG/KORF
WHERE WINDS ~5KT WILL LIMIT RESTRICTIONS TO MVRF. STRATUS/FOG WILL
DISSIPATE/LIFT WEST TO EAST WED MORNING AHEAD OF APPRCHG CD FRNT
PROGGED FOR LATER IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...DRY WX IS XPCTD THRU FRI BUT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS
OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT LIGHT NE WINDS AOB 10KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS PA
TONIGHT...THEN NE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WED...BEFORE PUSHING
WELL OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. WINDS THRU THURSDAY WILL REMAIN OUT
OF THE N OR NE AOB 15KT. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 3-4 FT LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WED...HIGHEST OVER OFFSHORE WATERS. GUIDANCE BUILDS
SEAS TO AROUND 5 FT OFFSHORE BY WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HAVE HELD
OFF WITH SCA FLAGS FOR THE MOMENT WITH CONDITIONS STILL APPEARING
MARGINAL ATTM. WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE S-SW FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH CROSSES INTO THE AREA
EARLY SATURDAY...WITH WINDS QUICKLY SWINGING AROUND TO THE NW
POST-FRONT SATURDAY AFTN. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE FRI INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...MPR/DAP
MARINE...JDM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010047
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
847 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR MOST
OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ST HAS RMND STUBBORN OVR MOST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FA INTO MID
THIS AFTN WHILE ERN AREAS HAVE HAD SCT CLDNS. CONTD DISSIPATION OF
THE ST XPCD INTO THIS EVE...LEADING TO MNLY PCLDY CONDS OVR THE FA
INTO THE OVRNGT HRS. UPR LVL LO PRES WILL TRACK ACRS PA
TNGT...PUSHING ITS ACCOMPANYING CDFNT CLOSER TO THE FA FM THE NNW.
XPCG ANY PCPN FOR THAT SYS TO BE LIMITED TO FAR NNE AREAS OF FA
(AFT MDNGT). OTRW...ANOTHER NGT OF ST/FG DEVELOPMENT XPCD AFT
MDNGT...THOUGH UNCERTAIN OF AMT OF COVERAGE. LO TEMPS TNGT WILL
RANGE FM THE M50S TO L60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPR LVL LO PRES WILL CONT E ACRS SRN ENGLAND AND OFF THE CST INTO
WED NGT...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED TROF SFC-ALOFT THRU THE FCST AREA
WITH BKN CLDNS AND MAINLY SLGT CHC POPS (MAINLY NNE
PORTIONS). AFT ANY MRNG ST/FG...VRB CLDS TO PCLDY. HI TEMPS FM
THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHR...TO 75 TO 80F ELSW.

HI PRES FM NEW ENGLAND BUILDS SWD INTO THE REGION LATER WED NGT
THRU THU...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF ENE WINDS. MODELS
CONT TO SUGGEST THAT INLAND LOCATIONS HAVE A LO PROB FOR (ISLTD)
THU...ALONG WITH VRB CLDS. MAINLY PRTLY CLOUDY TWD THE CST. LO
TEMPS WED NGT WILL RANGE FM THE M50S TO L60S. HI TEMPS ON
THU MANLY FM THE MID 70S TO ARND 80.

A POTENT UPR LVL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LO PRES/CDFNT
(EXTENDING S TO ERN TX) WILL BE DIVING ESE THROUGH THE MIDWEST
THU NGT. THAT SYS WILL APPROACH THE MDATLC RGN ON FRI. AHEAD OF
IT...SSE WNDS BRING INCRSG MOISTURE WHICH WILL RESULT IN VRB CLDS
TO MCLDY CONDS AND PSBL ISOLD SHRAS. THE MOST WIDESPREAD PCPN
ASSOCIATED W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT XPCD TO RMN JUST W OF THE FA
THROUGH FRI AFTN. HI TEMPS FRI FM THE M/U70S ON THE ERN SHR TO L80S
ACRS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME CUT OFF OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING NE
INTO SE CANADA ON SUNDAY. STRONG JET ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH/UPPER LOW WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN OFFSHORE SATURDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE FROPA AND WILL CARRY HIGH LIKELY
POPS. STRONG FORCING BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY
TRIGGER AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO FRIDAY EVENING. WITH THE FRONT
EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE COAST AROUND 12Z SAT...SHOWER CHANCES WILL
QUICKLY COME TO AND END FROM WEST TO EAST BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. WILL
LIMIT SHWR CHANCES ON SATURDAY MORNING TO THE FAR EASTERN AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR DRY WX. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW LINGERS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH ANOTHER SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
SATURDAY 70-75. COOLER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 65-70. HIGHS MONDAY/TUESDAY
70-75.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COMBO OF THE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND ABUNDANT LL MSTR WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO ANTHR NITE OF IFR STRATUS/FOG TO DEVELOPMENT...EXCEPT FOR KECG/KORF
WHERE WINDS ~5KT WILL LIMIT RESTRICTIONS TO MVRF. STRATUS/FOG WILL
DISSIPATE/LIFT WEST TO EAST WED MORNING AHEAD OF APPRCHG CD FRNT
PROGGED FOR LATER IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...DRY WX IS XPCTD THRU FRI BUT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS
OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT LIGHT NE WINDS AOB 10KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS PA
TONIGHT...THEN NE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WED...BEFORE PUSHING
WELL OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. WINDS THRU THURSDAY WILL REMAIN OUT
OF THE N OR NE AOB 15KT. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 3-4 FT LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WED...HIGHEST OVER OFFSHORE WATERS. GUIDANCE BUILDS
SEAS TO AROUND 5 FT OFFSHORE BY WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HAVE HELD
OFF WITH SCA FLAGS FOR THE MOMENT WITH CONDITIONS STILL APPEARING
MARGINAL ATTM. WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE S-SW FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH CROSSES INTO THE AREA
EARLY SATURDAY...WITH WINDS QUICKLY SWINGING AROUND TO THE NW
POST-FRONT SATURDAY AFTN. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE FRI INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...MPR/DAP
MARINE...JDM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010047
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
847 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR MOST
OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ST HAS RMND STUBBORN OVR MOST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FA INTO MID
THIS AFTN WHILE ERN AREAS HAVE HAD SCT CLDNS. CONTD DISSIPATION OF
THE ST XPCD INTO THIS EVE...LEADING TO MNLY PCLDY CONDS OVR THE FA
INTO THE OVRNGT HRS. UPR LVL LO PRES WILL TRACK ACRS PA
TNGT...PUSHING ITS ACCOMPANYING CDFNT CLOSER TO THE FA FM THE NNW.
XPCG ANY PCPN FOR THAT SYS TO BE LIMITED TO FAR NNE AREAS OF FA
(AFT MDNGT). OTRW...ANOTHER NGT OF ST/FG DEVELOPMENT XPCD AFT
MDNGT...THOUGH UNCERTAIN OF AMT OF COVERAGE. LO TEMPS TNGT WILL
RANGE FM THE M50S TO L60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPR LVL LO PRES WILL CONT E ACRS SRN ENGLAND AND OFF THE CST INTO
WED NGT...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED TROF SFC-ALOFT THRU THE FCST AREA
WITH BKN CLDNS AND MAINLY SLGT CHC POPS (MAINLY NNE
PORTIONS). AFT ANY MRNG ST/FG...VRB CLDS TO PCLDY. HI TEMPS FM
THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHR...TO 75 TO 80F ELSW.

HI PRES FM NEW ENGLAND BUILDS SWD INTO THE REGION LATER WED NGT
THRU THU...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF ENE WINDS. MODELS
CONT TO SUGGEST THAT INLAND LOCATIONS HAVE A LO PROB FOR (ISLTD)
THU...ALONG WITH VRB CLDS. MAINLY PRTLY CLOUDY TWD THE CST. LO
TEMPS WED NGT WILL RANGE FM THE M50S TO L60S. HI TEMPS ON
THU MANLY FM THE MID 70S TO ARND 80.

A POTENT UPR LVL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LO PRES/CDFNT
(EXTENDING S TO ERN TX) WILL BE DIVING ESE THROUGH THE MIDWEST
THU NGT. THAT SYS WILL APPROACH THE MDATLC RGN ON FRI. AHEAD OF
IT...SSE WNDS BRING INCRSG MOISTURE WHICH WILL RESULT IN VRB CLDS
TO MCLDY CONDS AND PSBL ISOLD SHRAS. THE MOST WIDESPREAD PCPN
ASSOCIATED W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT XPCD TO RMN JUST W OF THE FA
THROUGH FRI AFTN. HI TEMPS FRI FM THE M/U70S ON THE ERN SHR TO L80S
ACRS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME CUT OFF OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING NE
INTO SE CANADA ON SUNDAY. STRONG JET ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH/UPPER LOW WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN OFFSHORE SATURDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE FROPA AND WILL CARRY HIGH LIKELY
POPS. STRONG FORCING BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY
TRIGGER AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO FRIDAY EVENING. WITH THE FRONT
EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE COAST AROUND 12Z SAT...SHOWER CHANCES WILL
QUICKLY COME TO AND END FROM WEST TO EAST BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. WILL
LIMIT SHWR CHANCES ON SATURDAY MORNING TO THE FAR EASTERN AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR DRY WX. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW LINGERS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH ANOTHER SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
SATURDAY 70-75. COOLER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 65-70. HIGHS MONDAY/TUESDAY
70-75.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COMBO OF THE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND ABUNDANT LL MSTR WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO ANTHR NITE OF IFR STRATUS/FOG TO DEVELOPMENT...EXCEPT FOR KECG/KORF
WHERE WINDS ~5KT WILL LIMIT RESTRICTIONS TO MVRF. STRATUS/FOG WILL
DISSIPATE/LIFT WEST TO EAST WED MORNING AHEAD OF APPRCHG CD FRNT
PROGGED FOR LATER IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...DRY WX IS XPCTD THRU FRI BUT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS
OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT LIGHT NE WINDS AOB 10KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS PA
TONIGHT...THEN NE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WED...BEFORE PUSHING
WELL OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. WINDS THRU THURSDAY WILL REMAIN OUT
OF THE N OR NE AOB 15KT. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 3-4 FT LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WED...HIGHEST OVER OFFSHORE WATERS. GUIDANCE BUILDS
SEAS TO AROUND 5 FT OFFSHORE BY WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HAVE HELD
OFF WITH SCA FLAGS FOR THE MOMENT WITH CONDITIONS STILL APPEARING
MARGINAL ATTM. WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE S-SW FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH CROSSES INTO THE AREA
EARLY SATURDAY...WITH WINDS QUICKLY SWINGING AROUND TO THE NW
POST-FRONT SATURDAY AFTN. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE FRI INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...MPR/DAP
MARINE...JDM







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010015
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
815 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL COME WITH A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MID EVE UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST POPS AND WEA FOR CURRENT
TRENDS...MAIN FEATURE OF WHICH WERE THE ADDITIONS OF OVRNGT FOG
AND THE READDITION OF ISOLD TSTMS AS LIGHTNING STRIKES CONT UNDR
COOLING MID LVLS.

WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THAT UPR LOW...HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT POPS
AND AT LEAST BKN CLD COVER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH
DIMINISHMENT THEREAFTER.

DESPITE FRONT/UPR LOW ENCROACHMENT...EXPECT NR TERM TEMPS TO RMN
NR THE SEASONAL AVGS AS PER A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPR TROF ADVN ACRS THE WRN CONUS WL RESULT IN SHRTWV RIDGING OVR
THE GREAT LAKES/UPR OH REGIONS INTO FRIDAY. DRY WEA WL THUS RESUME
WITH WARM ADVCTN SPPRTG TEMPS FM 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVGS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF IS FORECAST FOR A FRIDAY APCH WITH THE
LATEST GFS DEPICTING A LATE AFTN/EVE CDFNT PASSAGE. POPS AND TEMPS
WERE ADJUSTED FOR THAT TREND WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MUCH BTR
DESTABILIZATION.  THUNDER MENTION WAS THUS MAINTAINED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY SLICE THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS DIMINISHING WITH THE PASSAGE.
STRONG WIND ARE LIKELY ALONG THE FRONT OWING TO A PROGGED 30-35
KTS OFF THE SURFACE. THIS COMBINED WITH A DRASTIC AIR MASS
DENSITY DISCONTINUITY SHOULD YIELD A FAIRLY WINDY PERIOD INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.

MUCH COLDER...BUT STILL UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE
THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LOW PRES SETTLES OVR THE REGION. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FUELED BY CONTINUED
COLD ADVECTION SHOULD SPPRT A DIURNAL INCREASE IN SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY.

ERN CONUS TROFG IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK...THUS
MAINTAINING GENLY COOL CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
ABOUT 03Z...CAUSING VERY BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IF AT ALL. COMPLEX
AVIATION FORECAST TONIGHT...AS AT LEAST A LITTLE RAINFALL ACROSS THE
AREA EARLIER TUES MAY ENHANCE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY WEDS
MORNING DESPITE POTENTIAL FOR LLVL STRATUS. STRATUS POTENTIAL WOULD
BE HIGHER FOR NRN PORTS AS LLVL MOISTURE IS MORE ABUNDANT THERE.
REGARDLESS...IFR RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CONDITIONS...SHOULD FOG
DEVELOP. A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR WEDS AS MIXING
WILL LIFT CLOUD BASES TO OVER 3KFT.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

XV/TA





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010015
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
815 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL COME WITH A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MID EVE UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST POPS AND WEA FOR CURRENT
TRENDS...MAIN FEATURE OF WHICH WERE THE ADDITIONS OF OVRNGT FOG
AND THE READDITION OF ISOLD TSTMS AS LIGHTNING STRIKES CONT UNDR
COOLING MID LVLS.

WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THAT UPR LOW...HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT POPS
AND AT LEAST BKN CLD COVER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH
DIMINISHMENT THEREAFTER.

DESPITE FRONT/UPR LOW ENCROACHMENT...EXPECT NR TERM TEMPS TO RMN
NR THE SEASONAL AVGS AS PER A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPR TROF ADVN ACRS THE WRN CONUS WL RESULT IN SHRTWV RIDGING OVR
THE GREAT LAKES/UPR OH REGIONS INTO FRIDAY. DRY WEA WL THUS RESUME
WITH WARM ADVCTN SPPRTG TEMPS FM 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVGS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF IS FORECAST FOR A FRIDAY APCH WITH THE
LATEST GFS DEPICTING A LATE AFTN/EVE CDFNT PASSAGE. POPS AND TEMPS
WERE ADJUSTED FOR THAT TREND WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MUCH BTR
DESTABILIZATION.  THUNDER MENTION WAS THUS MAINTAINED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY SLICE THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS DIMINISHING WITH THE PASSAGE.
STRONG WIND ARE LIKELY ALONG THE FRONT OWING TO A PROGGED 30-35
KTS OFF THE SURFACE. THIS COMBINED WITH A DRASTIC AIR MASS
DENSITY DISCONTINUITY SHOULD YIELD A FAIRLY WINDY PERIOD INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.

MUCH COLDER...BUT STILL UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE
THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LOW PRES SETTLES OVR THE REGION. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FUELED BY CONTINUED
COLD ADVECTION SHOULD SPPRT A DIURNAL INCREASE IN SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY.

ERN CONUS TROFG IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK...THUS
MAINTAINING GENLY COOL CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
ABOUT 03Z...CAUSING VERY BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IF AT ALL. COMPLEX
AVIATION FORECAST TONIGHT...AS AT LEAST A LITTLE RAINFALL ACROSS THE
AREA EARLIER TUES MAY ENHANCE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY WEDS
MORNING DESPITE POTENTIAL FOR LLVL STRATUS. STRATUS POTENTIAL WOULD
BE HIGHER FOR NRN PORTS AS LLVL MOISTURE IS MORE ABUNDANT THERE.
REGARDLESS...IFR RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CONDITIONS...SHOULD FOG
DEVELOP. A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR WEDS AS MIXING
WILL LIFT CLOUD BASES TO OVER 3KFT.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

XV/TA






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 302330
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
633 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL COME WITH A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE EARLY EVE UPDATE AS SCT SHWRS
CONT WITH UPR LOW PRES AND SFC CDFNT MOVG OVR THE UPR OH REGION.

WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THAT UPR LOW...HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT POPS AND AT
LEAST BKN CLD COVER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH DIMINISHMENT
THEREAFTER.

DESPITE FRONT/UPR LOW ENCROACHMENT...EXPECT NR TERM TEMPS TO RMN
NR THE SEASONAL AVGS AS PER A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPR TROF ADVN ACRS THE WRN CONUS WL RESULT IN SHRTWV RIDGING OVR
THE GREAT LAKES/UPR OH REGIONS INTO FRIDAY. DRY WEA WL THUS RESUME
WITH WARM ADVCTN SPPRTG TEMPS FM 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVGS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF IS FORECAST FOR A FRIDAY APCH WITH THE
LATEST GFS DEPICTING A LATE AFTN/EVE CDFNT PASSAGE. POPS AND TEMPS
WERE ADJUSTED FOR THAT TREND WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MUCH BTR
DESTABILIZATION.  THUNDER MENTION WAS THUS MAINTAINED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY SLICE THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS DIMINISHING WITH THE PASSAGE.
STRONG WIND ARE LIKELY ALONG THE FRONT OWING TO A PROGGED 30-35
KTS OFF THE SURFACE. THIS COMBINED WITH A DRASTIC AIR MASS
DENSITY DISCONTINUITY SHOULD YIELD A FAIRLY WINDY PERIOD INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.

MUCH COLDER...BUT STILL UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE
THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LOW PRES SETTLES OVR THE REGION. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FUELED BY CONTINUED
COLD ADVECTION SHOULD SPPRT A DIURNAL INCREASE IN SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY.

ERN CONUS TROFG IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK...THUS
MAINTAINING GENLY COOL CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
ABOUT 03Z...CAUSING VERY BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IF AT ALL. COMPLEX
AVIATION FORECAST TONIGHT...AS AT LEAST A LITTLE RAINFALL ACROSS THE
AREA EARLIER TUES MAY ENHANCE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY WEDS
MORNING DESPITE POTENTIAL FOR LLVL STRATUS. STRATUS POTENTIAL WOULD
BE HIGHER FOR NRN PORTS AS LLVL MOISTURE IS MORE ABUNDANT THERE.
REGARDLESS...IFR RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CONDITIONS...SHOULD FOG
DEVELOP. A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR WEDS AS MIXING
WILL LIFT CLOUD BASES TO OVER 3KFT.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 302330
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
633 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL COME WITH A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE EARLY EVE UPDATE AS SCT SHWRS
CONT WITH UPR LOW PRES AND SFC CDFNT MOVG OVR THE UPR OH REGION.

WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THAT UPR LOW...HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT POPS AND AT
LEAST BKN CLD COVER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH DIMINISHMENT
THEREAFTER.

DESPITE FRONT/UPR LOW ENCROACHMENT...EXPECT NR TERM TEMPS TO RMN
NR THE SEASONAL AVGS AS PER A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPR TROF ADVN ACRS THE WRN CONUS WL RESULT IN SHRTWV RIDGING OVR
THE GREAT LAKES/UPR OH REGIONS INTO FRIDAY. DRY WEA WL THUS RESUME
WITH WARM ADVCTN SPPRTG TEMPS FM 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVGS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF IS FORECAST FOR A FRIDAY APCH WITH THE
LATEST GFS DEPICTING A LATE AFTN/EVE CDFNT PASSAGE. POPS AND TEMPS
WERE ADJUSTED FOR THAT TREND WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MUCH BTR
DESTABILIZATION.  THUNDER MENTION WAS THUS MAINTAINED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY SLICE THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS DIMINISHING WITH THE PASSAGE.
STRONG WIND ARE LIKELY ALONG THE FRONT OWING TO A PROGGED 30-35
KTS OFF THE SURFACE. THIS COMBINED WITH A DRASTIC AIR MASS
DENSITY DISCONTINUITY SHOULD YIELD A FAIRLY WINDY PERIOD INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.

MUCH COLDER...BUT STILL UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE
THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LOW PRES SETTLES OVR THE REGION. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FUELED BY CONTINUED
COLD ADVECTION SHOULD SPPRT A DIURNAL INCREASE IN SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY.

ERN CONUS TROFG IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK...THUS
MAINTAINING GENLY COOL CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
ABOUT 03Z...CAUSING VERY BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IF AT ALL. COMPLEX
AVIATION FORECAST TONIGHT...AS AT LEAST A LITTLE RAINFALL ACROSS THE
AREA EARLIER TUES MAY ENHANCE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY WEDS
MORNING DESPITE POTENTIAL FOR LLVL STRATUS. STRATUS POTENTIAL WOULD
BE HIGHER FOR NRN PORTS AS LLVL MOISTURE IS MORE ABUNDANT THERE.
REGARDLESS...IFR RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CONDITIONS...SHOULD FOG
DEVELOP. A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR WEDS AS MIXING
WILL LIFT CLOUD BASES TO OVER 3KFT.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPHI 302015
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
415 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO WORK IN FROM THE NORTH LATER ON WEDNESDAY.
THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO OUR EAST BY FRIDAY BEFORE A MORE POTENT COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
BREAK BETWEEN COLD FRONTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A COUPLE OF FACTORS WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER ACROSS
OUR REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE COLD POOL OF AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE, ALONG WITH SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION, A CONTINUED EASTERLY TO
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE. WHILE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA, HIGHEST CHANCE POPS ARE FOCUSED MOSTLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA, AS THE MORE ELEVATED TERRAIN WILL AID
IN ADDITIONAL LIFT AND IS CLOSER TO THE INCOMING UPPER LOW PASSING
OVERHEAD. WE LEFT A MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR OUR FAR
WESTERN AREAS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING, AS THERE IS SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY, AND THERE HAS BEEN SOME THUNDER DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST
OF OUR CWA.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT THEN, WE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS, HIGHEST FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES, WITH THE INCOMING
UPPER LEVEL LOW. IN ADDITION, GUIDANCE WAS ALSO INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG, AND WE KEPT THIS IN THE FORECAST WITH THE
EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW AND AMPLE MOISTURE. FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES,
WE MOSTLY TOOK A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE AND EXPECT LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE 50S, EXCEPT SOME LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST AND IN MORE URBAN
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LOW
WILL BE SWINGING BY TO OUR NORTHEAST, AND BY LATE IN THE DAY,
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD
OUR REGION. THERE WILL STILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY THROUGH MORNING TO ABOUT MIDDAY, AND
WE SLOWLY TRAIL POPS OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY
CLOUDY THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE SOME SLOW THINNING OCCURS LATE-DAY.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH
CONTINUITY, AND WE EXPECT HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
FEATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST SUCH FEATURE BEING THE
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW THAT SHOULD BE TO OUR IMMEDIATE
EAST. THEN WE HAVE THE POTENTIAL PHASING OF A STRONG NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST THAT CARVES OUT A VERY LARGE AND
DEEP CLOSED LOW/TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

THURSDAY...RATHER DRY DAY EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY ON
ACROSS OUR EASTERN PORTIONS. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME MID-LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL SCRAPES BY BUT
NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF WITH. MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BECOME MORE
PROMINENT ON THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD GIVE WAY TO LATE DAY SUNSHINE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW-70S; AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE MAY BE BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGING OVERHEAD A
BIT TOO FAST, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
STILL LINGERING BY AND THE APPROACH OF A DEEPENING TROUGH UPSTREAM,
THE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD SLIGHTLY BEFORE BREAKING. ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD
OF THE NEXT TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS
ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES BY LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DO NOT SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION WITH THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN THE STABLE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE. WE SEE A INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE AND POSSIBLY
INTENSITY BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT INCHES
CLOSER. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MUCH THE SAME, LOW-70S
WITH INCREASING COLD COVER.

SATURDAY...TRANSITION DAY WITH A STRONG FRONT EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THROUGH DURING THE MORNING HOURS. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL ALLOW PWATS TO CLIMB TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL MAKING FOR
HEAVIER RAINFALL. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE STILL PRETTY DRY ACROSS
THE REGION SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY TO OCCUR
WITH THE POSSIBLE HEAVIER RAIN. LOTS OF CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION OCCURRING DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID TO
UPPER-60S.

SUNDAY - TUESDAY...CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO
DURING THE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIMEFRAME. PREFERRED THE
CMC AND UKMET EVOLUTION OF THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FIELD OVER THE
GFS AND ECMWF...BOTH OF WHICH HAVE A MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH AND PLACEMENT OF THE CLOSED LOW FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST.
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT UNCERTAINTY AS SHOWN BY BOTH THE
GEFS AND ECENS SPREAD IN MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FIELDS FROM THE MEAN
AND THIS THINKING IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST MODEL VERIFICATIONS
WHICH INDICATE A LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTION.

EXPECT WINDS TO DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES
NOSES INTO THE REGION. IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES ENOUGH W/
LIGHT WINDS...COULD SEE LOW TEMPS IN THE 35-40 RANGE IN THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR OF OUR CWA. SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD...WITH 850 HPA TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...MID 50S IN THE POCONOS TO MID 60S
IN SOUTH JERSEY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY ON TUESDAY...PRESENTING THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO SEASONABLE LEVELS ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LATE DAY AND THIS EVENING...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED SCT TO BKN
CLOUDS WITH BASES AT 4000 TO 5000 FEET. LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE, UNDER 10 KNOTS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE,
MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF KRDG AND KABE.

LATE EVENING THROUGH OVERNIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THIS PERIOD, BUT STAY MAINLY UNDER 10 KNOTS.
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING MVFR TO POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PASSING OVERHEAD, BUT CONFIDENCE AND LOCATION OF SHOWERS WAS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. BEST CHANCE FOR A SHOWER WOULD BE IN THE
KRDG/KABE/KTTN VICINITY.

WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLE IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH
THE MORNING, BEFORE BECOMING VFR AROUND MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON
FOR THE TAF SITES. AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER REMAINS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE MORNING. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED, MOSTLY IN THE
8 TO 10 KNOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MVFR EARLY BECOMING VFR. EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED.
POSSIBLE LINGERING SHOWER EARLY AT MIV/ACY, OTHERWISE DRY.

FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR. RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES LATE, OVERSPREADS THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS IN HEAVY SHOWERS. WINDS BACK SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR EARLY IN HEAVY RAIN, TRENDING VFR. WINDS
CONTINUE TO BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
AN EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY ACROSS OUR
AREA WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, AND FROM EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE DAYTIME, SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.
IN ADDITION, SEAS WILL ALSO BE BUILDING IN THE INCREASING NORTHEAST
FLOW. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO AROUND 4 FEET BY AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY, AND FORECAST LEVELS SHOULD REACH 5 FEET FROM ABOUT GREAT
EGG INLET NORTHWARD DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. WE THEREFORE
DECIDED TO RAISE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR NORTHERN ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS, FROM GREAT EGG INLET NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK,
BEGINNING AT 15Z WEDNESDAY.

FOR DELAWARE BAY, WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY - FRIDAY...SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ON OUR
WATERS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS WE CONTINUE WITH THE EASTERLY ONSHORE
FLOW. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND 5 FEET. WINDS BEGIN TO BACK
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

SATURDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE
WEST-NORTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY AND WITH STRONGER COLD AIR
ADVECTION OCCURRING, WE COULD SEE A RETURN TO SCA CONDITIONS.


&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ450>452.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...FRANCK/HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLINE
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLINE







000
FXUS61 KPHI 302015
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
415 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO WORK IN FROM THE NORTH LATER ON WEDNESDAY.
THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO OUR EAST BY FRIDAY BEFORE A MORE POTENT COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
BREAK BETWEEN COLD FRONTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A COUPLE OF FACTORS WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER ACROSS
OUR REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE COLD POOL OF AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE, ALONG WITH SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION, A CONTINUED EASTERLY TO
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE. WHILE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA, HIGHEST CHANCE POPS ARE FOCUSED MOSTLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA, AS THE MORE ELEVATED TERRAIN WILL AID
IN ADDITIONAL LIFT AND IS CLOSER TO THE INCOMING UPPER LOW PASSING
OVERHEAD. WE LEFT A MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR OUR FAR
WESTERN AREAS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING, AS THERE IS SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY, AND THERE HAS BEEN SOME THUNDER DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST
OF OUR CWA.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT THEN, WE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS, HIGHEST FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES, WITH THE INCOMING
UPPER LEVEL LOW. IN ADDITION, GUIDANCE WAS ALSO INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG, AND WE KEPT THIS IN THE FORECAST WITH THE
EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW AND AMPLE MOISTURE. FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES,
WE MOSTLY TOOK A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE AND EXPECT LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE 50S, EXCEPT SOME LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST AND IN MORE URBAN
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LOW
WILL BE SWINGING BY TO OUR NORTHEAST, AND BY LATE IN THE DAY,
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD
OUR REGION. THERE WILL STILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY THROUGH MORNING TO ABOUT MIDDAY, AND
WE SLOWLY TRAIL POPS OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY
CLOUDY THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE SOME SLOW THINNING OCCURS LATE-DAY.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH
CONTINUITY, AND WE EXPECT HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
FEATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST SUCH FEATURE BEING THE
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW THAT SHOULD BE TO OUR IMMEDIATE
EAST. THEN WE HAVE THE POTENTIAL PHASING OF A STRONG NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST THAT CARVES OUT A VERY LARGE AND
DEEP CLOSED LOW/TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

THURSDAY...RATHER DRY DAY EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY ON
ACROSS OUR EASTERN PORTIONS. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME MID-LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL SCRAPES BY BUT
NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF WITH. MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BECOME MORE
PROMINENT ON THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD GIVE WAY TO LATE DAY SUNSHINE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW-70S; AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE MAY BE BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGING OVERHEAD A
BIT TOO FAST, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
STILL LINGERING BY AND THE APPROACH OF A DEEPENING TROUGH UPSTREAM,
THE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD SLIGHTLY BEFORE BREAKING. ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD
OF THE NEXT TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS
ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES BY LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DO NOT SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION WITH THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN THE STABLE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE. WE SEE A INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE AND POSSIBLY
INTENSITY BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT INCHES
CLOSER. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MUCH THE SAME, LOW-70S
WITH INCREASING COLD COVER.

SATURDAY...TRANSITION DAY WITH A STRONG FRONT EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THROUGH DURING THE MORNING HOURS. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL ALLOW PWATS TO CLIMB TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL MAKING FOR
HEAVIER RAINFALL. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE STILL PRETTY DRY ACROSS
THE REGION SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY TO OCCUR
WITH THE POSSIBLE HEAVIER RAIN. LOTS OF CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION OCCURRING DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID TO
UPPER-60S.

SUNDAY - TUESDAY...CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO
DURING THE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIMEFRAME. PREFERRED THE
CMC AND UKMET EVOLUTION OF THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FIELD OVER THE
GFS AND ECMWF...BOTH OF WHICH HAVE A MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH AND PLACEMENT OF THE CLOSED LOW FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST.
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT UNCERTAINTY AS SHOWN BY BOTH THE
GEFS AND ECENS SPREAD IN MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FIELDS FROM THE MEAN
AND THIS THINKING IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST MODEL VERIFICATIONS
WHICH INDICATE A LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTION.

EXPECT WINDS TO DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES
NOSES INTO THE REGION. IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES ENOUGH W/
LIGHT WINDS...COULD SEE LOW TEMPS IN THE 35-40 RANGE IN THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR OF OUR CWA. SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD...WITH 850 HPA TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...MID 50S IN THE POCONOS TO MID 60S
IN SOUTH JERSEY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY ON TUESDAY...PRESENTING THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO SEASONABLE LEVELS ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LATE DAY AND THIS EVENING...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED SCT TO BKN
CLOUDS WITH BASES AT 4000 TO 5000 FEET. LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE, UNDER 10 KNOTS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE,
MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF KRDG AND KABE.

LATE EVENING THROUGH OVERNIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THIS PERIOD, BUT STAY MAINLY UNDER 10 KNOTS.
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING MVFR TO POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PASSING OVERHEAD, BUT CONFIDENCE AND LOCATION OF SHOWERS WAS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. BEST CHANCE FOR A SHOWER WOULD BE IN THE
KRDG/KABE/KTTN VICINITY.

WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLE IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH
THE MORNING, BEFORE BECOMING VFR AROUND MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON
FOR THE TAF SITES. AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER REMAINS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE MORNING. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED, MOSTLY IN THE
8 TO 10 KNOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MVFR EARLY BECOMING VFR. EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED.
POSSIBLE LINGERING SHOWER EARLY AT MIV/ACY, OTHERWISE DRY.

FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR. RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES LATE, OVERSPREADS THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS IN HEAVY SHOWERS. WINDS BACK SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR EARLY IN HEAVY RAIN, TRENDING VFR. WINDS
CONTINUE TO BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
AN EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY ACROSS OUR
AREA WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, AND FROM EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE DAYTIME, SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.
IN ADDITION, SEAS WILL ALSO BE BUILDING IN THE INCREASING NORTHEAST
FLOW. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO AROUND 4 FEET BY AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY, AND FORECAST LEVELS SHOULD REACH 5 FEET FROM ABOUT GREAT
EGG INLET NORTHWARD DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. WE THEREFORE
DECIDED TO RAISE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR NORTHERN ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS, FROM GREAT EGG INLET NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK,
BEGINNING AT 15Z WEDNESDAY.

FOR DELAWARE BAY, WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY - FRIDAY...SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ON OUR
WATERS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS WE CONTINUE WITH THE EASTERLY ONSHORE
FLOW. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND 5 FEET. WINDS BEGIN TO BACK
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

SATURDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE
WEST-NORTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY AND WITH STRONGER COLD AIR
ADVECTION OCCURRING, WE COULD SEE A RETURN TO SCA CONDITIONS.


&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ450>452.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...FRANCK/HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLINE
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLINE






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 301942
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
342 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR MOST
OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ST HAS RMND STUBBORN OVR MOST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FA INTO MID
THIS AFTN WHILE ERN AREAS HAVE HAD SCT CLDNS. CONTD DISSIPATION OF
THE ST XPCD INTO THIS EVE...LEADING TO MNLY PCLDY CONDS OVR THE FA
INTO THE OVRNGT HRS. UPR LVL LO PRES WILL TRACK ACRS PA
TNGT...PUSHING ITS ACCOMPANYING CDFNT CLOSER TO THE FA FM THE NNW.
XPCG ANY PCPN FOR THAT SYS TO BE LIMITED TO FAR NNE AREAS OF FA
(AFT MDNGT). OTRW...ANOTHER NGT OF ST/FG DEVELOPMENT XPCD AFT
MDNGT...THOUGH UNCERTAIN OF AMT OF COVERAGE. LO TEMPS TNGT WILL
RANGE FM THE M50S TO L60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPR LVL LO PRES WILL CONT E ACRS SRN ENGLAND AND OFF THE CST INTO
WED NGT...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED TROF SFC-ALOFT THRU THE FCST AREA
WITH BKN CLDNS AND MAINLY SLGT CHC POPS (MAINLY NNE
PORTIONS). AFT ANY MRNG ST/FG...VRB CLDS TO PCLDY. HI TEMPS FM
THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHR...TO 75 TO 80F ELSW.

HI PRES FM NEW ENGLAND BUILDS SWD INTO THE REGION LATER WED NGT
THRU THU...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF ENE WINDS. MODELS
CONT TO SUGGEST THAT INLAND LOCATIONS HAVE A LO PROB FOR (ISLTD)
THU...ALONG WITH VRB CLDS. MAINLY PRTLY CLOUDY TWD THE CST. LO
TEMPS WED NGT WILL RANGE FM THE M50S TO L60S. HI TEMPS ON
THU MANLY FM THE MID 70S TO ARND 80.

A POTENT UPR LVL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LO PRES/CDFNT
(EXTENDING S TO ERN TX) WILL BE DIVING ESE THROUGH THE MIDWEST
THU NGT. THAT SYS WILL APPROACH THE MDATLC RGN ON FRI. AHEAD OF
IT...SSE WNDS BRING INCRSG MOISTURE WHICH WILL RESULT IN VRB CLDS
TO MCLDY CONDS AND PSBL ISOLD SHRAS. THE MOST WIDESPREAD PCPN
ASSOCIATED W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT XPCD TO RMN JUST W OF THE FA
THROUGH FRI AFTN. HI TEMPS FRI FM THE M/U70S ON THE ERN SHR TO L80S
ACRS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME CUT OFF OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING NE
INTO SE CANADA ON SUNDAY. STRONG JET ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH/UPPER LOW WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN OFFSHORE SATURDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE FROPA AND WILL CARRY HIGH LIKELY
POPS. STRONG FORCING BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY
TRIGGER AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO FRIDAY EVENING. WITH THE FRONT
EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE COAST AROUND 12Z SAT...SHOWER CHANCES WILL
QUICKLY COME TO AND END FROM WEST TO EAST BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. WILL
LIMIT SHWR CHANCES ON SATURDAY MORNING TO THE FAR EASTERN AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR DRY WX. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW LINGERS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH ANOTHER SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
SATURDAY 70-75. COOLER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 65-70. HIGHS MONDAY/TUESDAY
70-75.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RATHER STRONG INVERSION ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTRN IS KEEPING
THE SC DECK (ARND 2K FT) IN TACT WHILE ONLY SCT SC NOTED ALONG
THE COAST. SUN IS SLOWLY ERODING THE EDGES OF THE SC DECK BUT IT
MAY TAKE A FEW MORE HRS FOR IT TO SCT OUT AT RIC. OTW...COMBO OF
THE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND ABUNDANT LL MSTR WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
ANTHR NITE FOR STRATUS / FOG TO DVLP. APPEARS PIEDMONT AND INLAND
SCTNS OF THE LWR MD ERN SHORE AS MODELS POINT TO SOME IFR FOG LATE
NITE / WED MORN THERE. ADDED A PRD OF ST / BR TO RIC / SBY AS MODELS
ARE FAIRLY CONSISTANT THIS WILL OCCUR. ONLY MVFR BR ADDED TO SERN
TAF SITES AS CONFIDENCE THERE NOT AS HIGH.

ST / FOG SLOWLY BURN OFF BY 15Z WED AHEAD OF APPRCHG CD FRNT PROGGED
FOR LATER IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...DRY WX IS XPCTD THRU FRI BUT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS
OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT LIGHT NE WINDS AOB 10KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS PA
TONIGHT...THEN NE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WED...BEFORE PUSHING
WELL OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. WINDS THRU THURSDAY WILL REMAIN OUT
OF THE N OR NE AOB 15KT. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 3-4 FT LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WED...HIGHEST OVER OFFSHORE WATERS. GUIDANCE BUILDS
SEAS TO AROUND 5 FT OFFSHORE BY WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HAVE HELD
OFF WITH SCA FLAGS FOR THE MOMENT WITH CONDITIONS STILL APPEARING
MARGINAL ATTM. WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE S-SW FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH CROSSES INTO THE AREA
EARLY SATURDAY...WITH WINDS QUICKLY SWINGING AROUND TO THE NW
POST-FRONT SATURDAY AFTN. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE FRI INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...JDM






















000
FXUS61 KAKQ 301942
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
342 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR MOST
OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ST HAS RMND STUBBORN OVR MOST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FA INTO MID
THIS AFTN WHILE ERN AREAS HAVE HAD SCT CLDNS. CONTD DISSIPATION OF
THE ST XPCD INTO THIS EVE...LEADING TO MNLY PCLDY CONDS OVR THE FA
INTO THE OVRNGT HRS. UPR LVL LO PRES WILL TRACK ACRS PA
TNGT...PUSHING ITS ACCOMPANYING CDFNT CLOSER TO THE FA FM THE NNW.
XPCG ANY PCPN FOR THAT SYS TO BE LIMITED TO FAR NNE AREAS OF FA
(AFT MDNGT). OTRW...ANOTHER NGT OF ST/FG DEVELOPMENT XPCD AFT
MDNGT...THOUGH UNCERTAIN OF AMT OF COVERAGE. LO TEMPS TNGT WILL
RANGE FM THE M50S TO L60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPR LVL LO PRES WILL CONT E ACRS SRN ENGLAND AND OFF THE CST INTO
WED NGT...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED TROF SFC-ALOFT THRU THE FCST AREA
WITH BKN CLDNS AND MAINLY SLGT CHC POPS (MAINLY NNE
PORTIONS). AFT ANY MRNG ST/FG...VRB CLDS TO PCLDY. HI TEMPS FM
THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHR...TO 75 TO 80F ELSW.

HI PRES FM NEW ENGLAND BUILDS SWD INTO THE REGION LATER WED NGT
THRU THU...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF ENE WINDS. MODELS
CONT TO SUGGEST THAT INLAND LOCATIONS HAVE A LO PROB FOR (ISLTD)
THU...ALONG WITH VRB CLDS. MAINLY PRTLY CLOUDY TWD THE CST. LO
TEMPS WED NGT WILL RANGE FM THE M50S TO L60S. HI TEMPS ON
THU MANLY FM THE MID 70S TO ARND 80.

A POTENT UPR LVL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LO PRES/CDFNT
(EXTENDING S TO ERN TX) WILL BE DIVING ESE THROUGH THE MIDWEST
THU NGT. THAT SYS WILL APPROACH THE MDATLC RGN ON FRI. AHEAD OF
IT...SSE WNDS BRING INCRSG MOISTURE WHICH WILL RESULT IN VRB CLDS
TO MCLDY CONDS AND PSBL ISOLD SHRAS. THE MOST WIDESPREAD PCPN
ASSOCIATED W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT XPCD TO RMN JUST W OF THE FA
THROUGH FRI AFTN. HI TEMPS FRI FM THE M/U70S ON THE ERN SHR TO L80S
ACRS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME CUT OFF OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING NE
INTO SE CANADA ON SUNDAY. STRONG JET ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH/UPPER LOW WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN OFFSHORE SATURDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE FROPA AND WILL CARRY HIGH LIKELY
POPS. STRONG FORCING BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY
TRIGGER AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO FRIDAY EVENING. WITH THE FRONT
EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE COAST AROUND 12Z SAT...SHOWER CHANCES WILL
QUICKLY COME TO AND END FROM WEST TO EAST BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. WILL
LIMIT SHWR CHANCES ON SATURDAY MORNING TO THE FAR EASTERN AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR DRY WX. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW LINGERS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH ANOTHER SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
SATURDAY 70-75. COOLER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 65-70. HIGHS MONDAY/TUESDAY
70-75.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RATHER STRONG INVERSION ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTRN IS KEEPING
THE SC DECK (ARND 2K FT) IN TACT WHILE ONLY SCT SC NOTED ALONG
THE COAST. SUN IS SLOWLY ERODING THE EDGES OF THE SC DECK BUT IT
MAY TAKE A FEW MORE HRS FOR IT TO SCT OUT AT RIC. OTW...COMBO OF
THE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND ABUNDANT LL MSTR WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
ANTHR NITE FOR STRATUS / FOG TO DVLP. APPEARS PIEDMONT AND INLAND
SCTNS OF THE LWR MD ERN SHORE AS MODELS POINT TO SOME IFR FOG LATE
NITE / WED MORN THERE. ADDED A PRD OF ST / BR TO RIC / SBY AS MODELS
ARE FAIRLY CONSISTANT THIS WILL OCCUR. ONLY MVFR BR ADDED TO SERN
TAF SITES AS CONFIDENCE THERE NOT AS HIGH.

ST / FOG SLOWLY BURN OFF BY 15Z WED AHEAD OF APPRCHG CD FRNT PROGGED
FOR LATER IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...DRY WX IS XPCTD THRU FRI BUT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS
OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT LIGHT NE WINDS AOB 10KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS PA
TONIGHT...THEN NE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WED...BEFORE PUSHING
WELL OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. WINDS THRU THURSDAY WILL REMAIN OUT
OF THE N OR NE AOB 15KT. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 3-4 FT LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WED...HIGHEST OVER OFFSHORE WATERS. GUIDANCE BUILDS
SEAS TO AROUND 5 FT OFFSHORE BY WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HAVE HELD
OFF WITH SCA FLAGS FOR THE MOMENT WITH CONDITIONS STILL APPEARING
MARGINAL ATTM. WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE S-SW FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH CROSSES INTO THE AREA
EARLY SATURDAY...WITH WINDS QUICKLY SWINGING AROUND TO THE NW
POST-FRONT SATURDAY AFTN. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE FRI INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...JDM






















000
FXUS61 KAKQ 301942
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
342 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR MOST
OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ST HAS RMND STUBBORN OVR MOST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FA INTO MID
THIS AFTN WHILE ERN AREAS HAVE HAD SCT CLDNS. CONTD DISSIPATION OF
THE ST XPCD INTO THIS EVE...LEADING TO MNLY PCLDY CONDS OVR THE FA
INTO THE OVRNGT HRS. UPR LVL LO PRES WILL TRACK ACRS PA
TNGT...PUSHING ITS ACCOMPANYING CDFNT CLOSER TO THE FA FM THE NNW.
XPCG ANY PCPN FOR THAT SYS TO BE LIMITED TO FAR NNE AREAS OF FA
(AFT MDNGT). OTRW...ANOTHER NGT OF ST/FG DEVELOPMENT XPCD AFT
MDNGT...THOUGH UNCERTAIN OF AMT OF COVERAGE. LO TEMPS TNGT WILL
RANGE FM THE M50S TO L60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPR LVL LO PRES WILL CONT E ACRS SRN ENGLAND AND OFF THE CST INTO
WED NGT...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED TROF SFC-ALOFT THRU THE FCST AREA
WITH BKN CLDNS AND MAINLY SLGT CHC POPS (MAINLY NNE
PORTIONS). AFT ANY MRNG ST/FG...VRB CLDS TO PCLDY. HI TEMPS FM
THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHR...TO 75 TO 80F ELSW.

HI PRES FM NEW ENGLAND BUILDS SWD INTO THE REGION LATER WED NGT
THRU THU...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF ENE WINDS. MODELS
CONT TO SUGGEST THAT INLAND LOCATIONS HAVE A LO PROB FOR (ISLTD)
THU...ALONG WITH VRB CLDS. MAINLY PRTLY CLOUDY TWD THE CST. LO
TEMPS WED NGT WILL RANGE FM THE M50S TO L60S. HI TEMPS ON
THU MANLY FM THE MID 70S TO ARND 80.

A POTENT UPR LVL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LO PRES/CDFNT
(EXTENDING S TO ERN TX) WILL BE DIVING ESE THROUGH THE MIDWEST
THU NGT. THAT SYS WILL APPROACH THE MDATLC RGN ON FRI. AHEAD OF
IT...SSE WNDS BRING INCRSG MOISTURE WHICH WILL RESULT IN VRB CLDS
TO MCLDY CONDS AND PSBL ISOLD SHRAS. THE MOST WIDESPREAD PCPN
ASSOCIATED W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT XPCD TO RMN JUST W OF THE FA
THROUGH FRI AFTN. HI TEMPS FRI FM THE M/U70S ON THE ERN SHR TO L80S
ACRS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME CUT OFF OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING NE
INTO SE CANADA ON SUNDAY. STRONG JET ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH/UPPER LOW WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN OFFSHORE SATURDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE FROPA AND WILL CARRY HIGH LIKELY
POPS. STRONG FORCING BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY
TRIGGER AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO FRIDAY EVENING. WITH THE FRONT
EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE COAST AROUND 12Z SAT...SHOWER CHANCES WILL
QUICKLY COME TO AND END FROM WEST TO EAST BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. WILL
LIMIT SHWR CHANCES ON SATURDAY MORNING TO THE FAR EASTERN AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR DRY WX. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW LINGERS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH ANOTHER SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
SATURDAY 70-75. COOLER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 65-70. HIGHS MONDAY/TUESDAY
70-75.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RATHER STRONG INVERSION ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTRN IS KEEPING
THE SC DECK (ARND 2K FT) IN TACT WHILE ONLY SCT SC NOTED ALONG
THE COAST. SUN IS SLOWLY ERODING THE EDGES OF THE SC DECK BUT IT
MAY TAKE A FEW MORE HRS FOR IT TO SCT OUT AT RIC. OTW...COMBO OF
THE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND ABUNDANT LL MSTR WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
ANTHR NITE FOR STRATUS / FOG TO DVLP. APPEARS PIEDMONT AND INLAND
SCTNS OF THE LWR MD ERN SHORE AS MODELS POINT TO SOME IFR FOG LATE
NITE / WED MORN THERE. ADDED A PRD OF ST / BR TO RIC / SBY AS MODELS
ARE FAIRLY CONSISTANT THIS WILL OCCUR. ONLY MVFR BR ADDED TO SERN
TAF SITES AS CONFIDENCE THERE NOT AS HIGH.

ST / FOG SLOWLY BURN OFF BY 15Z WED AHEAD OF APPRCHG CD FRNT PROGGED
FOR LATER IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...DRY WX IS XPCTD THRU FRI BUT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS
OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT LIGHT NE WINDS AOB 10KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS PA
TONIGHT...THEN NE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WED...BEFORE PUSHING
WELL OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. WINDS THRU THURSDAY WILL REMAIN OUT
OF THE N OR NE AOB 15KT. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 3-4 FT LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WED...HIGHEST OVER OFFSHORE WATERS. GUIDANCE BUILDS
SEAS TO AROUND 5 FT OFFSHORE BY WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HAVE HELD
OFF WITH SCA FLAGS FOR THE MOMENT WITH CONDITIONS STILL APPEARING
MARGINAL ATTM. WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE S-SW FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH CROSSES INTO THE AREA
EARLY SATURDAY...WITH WINDS QUICKLY SWINGING AROUND TO THE NW
POST-FRONT SATURDAY AFTN. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE FRI INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...JDM






















000
FXUS61 KAKQ 301942
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
342 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR MOST
OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ST HAS RMND STUBBORN OVR MOST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FA INTO MID
THIS AFTN WHILE ERN AREAS HAVE HAD SCT CLDNS. CONTD DISSIPATION OF
THE ST XPCD INTO THIS EVE...LEADING TO MNLY PCLDY CONDS OVR THE FA
INTO THE OVRNGT HRS. UPR LVL LO PRES WILL TRACK ACRS PA
TNGT...PUSHING ITS ACCOMPANYING CDFNT CLOSER TO THE FA FM THE NNW.
XPCG ANY PCPN FOR THAT SYS TO BE LIMITED TO FAR NNE AREAS OF FA
(AFT MDNGT). OTRW...ANOTHER NGT OF ST/FG DEVELOPMENT XPCD AFT
MDNGT...THOUGH UNCERTAIN OF AMT OF COVERAGE. LO TEMPS TNGT WILL
RANGE FM THE M50S TO L60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPR LVL LO PRES WILL CONT E ACRS SRN ENGLAND AND OFF THE CST INTO
WED NGT...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED TROF SFC-ALOFT THRU THE FCST AREA
WITH BKN CLDNS AND MAINLY SLGT CHC POPS (MAINLY NNE
PORTIONS). AFT ANY MRNG ST/FG...VRB CLDS TO PCLDY. HI TEMPS FM
THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHR...TO 75 TO 80F ELSW.

HI PRES FM NEW ENGLAND BUILDS SWD INTO THE REGION LATER WED NGT
THRU THU...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF ENE WINDS. MODELS
CONT TO SUGGEST THAT INLAND LOCATIONS HAVE A LO PROB FOR (ISLTD)
THU...ALONG WITH VRB CLDS. MAINLY PRTLY CLOUDY TWD THE CST. LO
TEMPS WED NGT WILL RANGE FM THE M50S TO L60S. HI TEMPS ON
THU MANLY FM THE MID 70S TO ARND 80.

A POTENT UPR LVL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LO PRES/CDFNT
(EXTENDING S TO ERN TX) WILL BE DIVING ESE THROUGH THE MIDWEST
THU NGT. THAT SYS WILL APPROACH THE MDATLC RGN ON FRI. AHEAD OF
IT...SSE WNDS BRING INCRSG MOISTURE WHICH WILL RESULT IN VRB CLDS
TO MCLDY CONDS AND PSBL ISOLD SHRAS. THE MOST WIDESPREAD PCPN
ASSOCIATED W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT XPCD TO RMN JUST W OF THE FA
THROUGH FRI AFTN. HI TEMPS FRI FM THE M/U70S ON THE ERN SHR TO L80S
ACRS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME CUT OFF OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING NE
INTO SE CANADA ON SUNDAY. STRONG JET ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH/UPPER LOW WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN OFFSHORE SATURDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE FROPA AND WILL CARRY HIGH LIKELY
POPS. STRONG FORCING BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY
TRIGGER AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO FRIDAY EVENING. WITH THE FRONT
EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE COAST AROUND 12Z SAT...SHOWER CHANCES WILL
QUICKLY COME TO AND END FROM WEST TO EAST BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. WILL
LIMIT SHWR CHANCES ON SATURDAY MORNING TO THE FAR EASTERN AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR DRY WX. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW LINGERS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH ANOTHER SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
SATURDAY 70-75. COOLER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 65-70. HIGHS MONDAY/TUESDAY
70-75.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RATHER STRONG INVERSION ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTRN IS KEEPING
THE SC DECK (ARND 2K FT) IN TACT WHILE ONLY SCT SC NOTED ALONG
THE COAST. SUN IS SLOWLY ERODING THE EDGES OF THE SC DECK BUT IT
MAY TAKE A FEW MORE HRS FOR IT TO SCT OUT AT RIC. OTW...COMBO OF
THE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND ABUNDANT LL MSTR WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
ANTHR NITE FOR STRATUS / FOG TO DVLP. APPEARS PIEDMONT AND INLAND
SCTNS OF THE LWR MD ERN SHORE AS MODELS POINT TO SOME IFR FOG LATE
NITE / WED MORN THERE. ADDED A PRD OF ST / BR TO RIC / SBY AS MODELS
ARE FAIRLY CONSISTANT THIS WILL OCCUR. ONLY MVFR BR ADDED TO SERN
TAF SITES AS CONFIDENCE THERE NOT AS HIGH.

ST / FOG SLOWLY BURN OFF BY 15Z WED AHEAD OF APPRCHG CD FRNT PROGGED
FOR LATER IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...DRY WX IS XPCTD THRU FRI BUT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS
OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT LIGHT NE WINDS AOB 10KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS PA
TONIGHT...THEN NE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WED...BEFORE PUSHING
WELL OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. WINDS THRU THURSDAY WILL REMAIN OUT
OF THE N OR NE AOB 15KT. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 3-4 FT LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WED...HIGHEST OVER OFFSHORE WATERS. GUIDANCE BUILDS
SEAS TO AROUND 5 FT OFFSHORE BY WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HAVE HELD
OFF WITH SCA FLAGS FOR THE MOMENT WITH CONDITIONS STILL APPEARING
MARGINAL ATTM. WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE S-SW FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH CROSSES INTO THE AREA
EARLY SATURDAY...WITH WINDS QUICKLY SWINGING AROUND TO THE NW
POST-FRONT SATURDAY AFTN. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE FRI INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...JDM






















000
FXUS61 KLWX 301901
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
301 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN TO THE EAST COAST LATER WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY. A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
WILL FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER CUTOFF LOW WILL GRADUALLY PULL OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND MOVE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. UPPER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LAPS ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE BEST INSTABILITY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND OVER THE
NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE CAPES ARE RUNNING AT
500-800 J/KG WITH NO CIN. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THESE AREAS AND ALONG THE MASON/DIXON LINE.
COOLING ALOFT FROM THE UPPER LOW WILL LEAD TO SOME STEEPENING OF
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS BUT NOT EXPECTING SEVERE THRESHOLDS. WILL
ALSO KEEP WORDING OUT OF THE HWO.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HUNG IN LONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT INSTABILITY FROM
CHO TO IAD AND AREAS EAST. A FEW BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WILL OCCUR
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON BUT THINKING IS THAT DESTABILIZATION
WILL BE MINIMAL ACROSS THESE AREAS. HAVE LEFT POPS OUT OF THIS
AREA BUT EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TO SEE IF ANYTHING CAN
DEVELOP.

CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE. BIGGER STORY OVERNIGHT WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THE
FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE...SIMILAR TO THE PATCHY DENSE FOG OF
THIS MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED THE POTENTIAL IN THE WX GRIDS.

UPPER LOW WILL PULL AWAY TO THE NORTH AND EAST ON WEDNESDAY. FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY WITH A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH NOSING INTO THE REGION WILL KEEP AN
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WIND FETCH IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS THAN CLEAR SKY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.

AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC...MID- AND
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL LOWER AND THICKEN
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE OF
SHOWERS PRECEDING THIS TROUGH COULD APPROACH THE WESTERN SLOPES BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY...BUT THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS
THE MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER
AND THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS PRECEDING THE
FRONT EXPECTING TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. MOST AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS
SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY DRY DURING THE DAY. MODELS ARE STILL
DIVERGENT ON TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH WHICH WILL DETERMINE
EXACTLY WHO GETS HOW MUCH RAIN AND WHEN. FORCING WITH THE TROUGH IS
STRONG BUT THERE IS NOT MUCH INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...SO WHILE A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THE CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT WIDESPREAD THUNDER IS UNLIKELY. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGER/HEAVIER BANDS OF RAIN COULD BE
REALIZED ESPECIALLY IF THE TROUGH ENDS UP BEING ON THE STRONGER SIDE.

MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT BY LATER SATURDAY AFTER THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION AND STICK AROUND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...PERHAPS
ISOLATED FREEZING TEMPERATURE READINGS ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES
SATURDAY NIGHT IF WINDS SLACKEN A TAD QUICKER THAN GUIDANCE IS
CURRENTLY SUGGESTING.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK BUT MODELS ARE HIGHLY DIVERGENT ON WHEN IT AND ITS IMPACTS
REACH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...STILL A FEW AREAS SEEING MVFR
CIGS BUT THOSE WILL CONTINUE TO MIX OUT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE. CONFIDENCE IN ANY STORM
DIRECTLY IMPACTING A TERMINAL SITE IS LOW...THEREFORE MENTION HAS
BEEN LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS. LOW CIGS AND FOG A GOOD BET OVERNIGHT.
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT NOT WIDESPREAD. LOW
CIGS AND FOG SHOULD MIX OUT BY LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

CIG AND PSBL VSBY RESTRICTIONS LATE WED NIGHT-THU AM AND AGAIN THU
NIGHT INTO FRI AM WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW PORTRAYED IN ALL THE
GUIDANCE. CLIMO IS FAVORABLE FOR FOG/STRATUS THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
SO THAT LENDS TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHWRS/ISO TSTMS IN ONE OR MORE
BANDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PSBL W/ GUSTY WINDS FRI-FRI NIGHT. VFR
SAT AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE W OR NW.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SOLID SCA CONDITIONS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THIS WEEKEND BOTH AHEAD OF /SOUTHERLY FLOW/ AND BEHIND
/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW/ A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT. WINDS/SEAS
GRADUALLY ABATE AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...DFH
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...KRW/DFH
MARINE...KRW/DFH







000
FXUS61 KLWX 301901
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
301 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN TO THE EAST COAST LATER WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY. A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
WILL FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER CUTOFF LOW WILL GRADUALLY PULL OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND MOVE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. UPPER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LAPS ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE BEST INSTABILITY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND OVER THE
NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE CAPES ARE RUNNING AT
500-800 J/KG WITH NO CIN. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THESE AREAS AND ALONG THE MASON/DIXON LINE.
COOLING ALOFT FROM THE UPPER LOW WILL LEAD TO SOME STEEPENING OF
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS BUT NOT EXPECTING SEVERE THRESHOLDS. WILL
ALSO KEEP WORDING OUT OF THE HWO.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HUNG IN LONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT INSTABILITY FROM
CHO TO IAD AND AREAS EAST. A FEW BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WILL OCCUR
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON BUT THINKING IS THAT DESTABILIZATION
WILL BE MINIMAL ACROSS THESE AREAS. HAVE LEFT POPS OUT OF THIS
AREA BUT EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TO SEE IF ANYTHING CAN
DEVELOP.

CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE. BIGGER STORY OVERNIGHT WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THE
FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE...SIMILAR TO THE PATCHY DENSE FOG OF
THIS MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED THE POTENTIAL IN THE WX GRIDS.

UPPER LOW WILL PULL AWAY TO THE NORTH AND EAST ON WEDNESDAY. FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY WITH A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH NOSING INTO THE REGION WILL KEEP AN
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WIND FETCH IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS THAN CLEAR SKY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.

AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC...MID- AND
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL LOWER AND THICKEN
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE OF
SHOWERS PRECEDING THIS TROUGH COULD APPROACH THE WESTERN SLOPES BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY...BUT THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS
THE MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER
AND THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS PRECEDING THE
FRONT EXPECTING TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. MOST AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS
SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY DRY DURING THE DAY. MODELS ARE STILL
DIVERGENT ON TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH WHICH WILL DETERMINE
EXACTLY WHO GETS HOW MUCH RAIN AND WHEN. FORCING WITH THE TROUGH IS
STRONG BUT THERE IS NOT MUCH INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...SO WHILE A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THE CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT WIDESPREAD THUNDER IS UNLIKELY. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGER/HEAVIER BANDS OF RAIN COULD BE
REALIZED ESPECIALLY IF THE TROUGH ENDS UP BEING ON THE STRONGER SIDE.

MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT BY LATER SATURDAY AFTER THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION AND STICK AROUND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...PERHAPS
ISOLATED FREEZING TEMPERATURE READINGS ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES
SATURDAY NIGHT IF WINDS SLACKEN A TAD QUICKER THAN GUIDANCE IS
CURRENTLY SUGGESTING.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK BUT MODELS ARE HIGHLY DIVERGENT ON WHEN IT AND ITS IMPACTS
REACH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...STILL A FEW AREAS SEEING MVFR
CIGS BUT THOSE WILL CONTINUE TO MIX OUT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE. CONFIDENCE IN ANY STORM
DIRECTLY IMPACTING A TERMINAL SITE IS LOW...THEREFORE MENTION HAS
BEEN LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS. LOW CIGS AND FOG A GOOD BET OVERNIGHT.
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT NOT WIDESPREAD. LOW
CIGS AND FOG SHOULD MIX OUT BY LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

CIG AND PSBL VSBY RESTRICTIONS LATE WED NIGHT-THU AM AND AGAIN THU
NIGHT INTO FRI AM WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW PORTRAYED IN ALL THE
GUIDANCE. CLIMO IS FAVORABLE FOR FOG/STRATUS THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
SO THAT LENDS TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHWRS/ISO TSTMS IN ONE OR MORE
BANDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PSBL W/ GUSTY WINDS FRI-FRI NIGHT. VFR
SAT AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE W OR NW.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SOLID SCA CONDITIONS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THIS WEEKEND BOTH AHEAD OF /SOUTHERLY FLOW/ AND BEHIND
/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW/ A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT. WINDS/SEAS
GRADUALLY ABATE AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...DFH
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...KRW/DFH
MARINE...KRW/DFH







000
FXUS61 KLWX 301901
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
301 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN TO THE EAST COAST LATER WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY. A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
WILL FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER CUTOFF LOW WILL GRADUALLY PULL OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND MOVE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. UPPER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LAPS ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE BEST INSTABILITY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND OVER THE
NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE CAPES ARE RUNNING AT
500-800 J/KG WITH NO CIN. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THESE AREAS AND ALONG THE MASON/DIXON LINE.
COOLING ALOFT FROM THE UPPER LOW WILL LEAD TO SOME STEEPENING OF
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS BUT NOT EXPECTING SEVERE THRESHOLDS. WILL
ALSO KEEP WORDING OUT OF THE HWO.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HUNG IN LONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT INSTABILITY FROM
CHO TO IAD AND AREAS EAST. A FEW BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WILL OCCUR
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON BUT THINKING IS THAT DESTABILIZATION
WILL BE MINIMAL ACROSS THESE AREAS. HAVE LEFT POPS OUT OF THIS
AREA BUT EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TO SEE IF ANYTHING CAN
DEVELOP.

CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE. BIGGER STORY OVERNIGHT WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THE
FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE...SIMILAR TO THE PATCHY DENSE FOG OF
THIS MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED THE POTENTIAL IN THE WX GRIDS.

UPPER LOW WILL PULL AWAY TO THE NORTH AND EAST ON WEDNESDAY. FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY WITH A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH NOSING INTO THE REGION WILL KEEP AN
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WIND FETCH IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS THAN CLEAR SKY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.

AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC...MID- AND
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL LOWER AND THICKEN
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE OF
SHOWERS PRECEDING THIS TROUGH COULD APPROACH THE WESTERN SLOPES BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY...BUT THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS
THE MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER
AND THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS PRECEDING THE
FRONT EXPECTING TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. MOST AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS
SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY DRY DURING THE DAY. MODELS ARE STILL
DIVERGENT ON TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH WHICH WILL DETERMINE
EXACTLY WHO GETS HOW MUCH RAIN AND WHEN. FORCING WITH THE TROUGH IS
STRONG BUT THERE IS NOT MUCH INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...SO WHILE A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THE CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT WIDESPREAD THUNDER IS UNLIKELY. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGER/HEAVIER BANDS OF RAIN COULD BE
REALIZED ESPECIALLY IF THE TROUGH ENDS UP BEING ON THE STRONGER SIDE.

MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT BY LATER SATURDAY AFTER THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION AND STICK AROUND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...PERHAPS
ISOLATED FREEZING TEMPERATURE READINGS ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES
SATURDAY NIGHT IF WINDS SLACKEN A TAD QUICKER THAN GUIDANCE IS
CURRENTLY SUGGESTING.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK BUT MODELS ARE HIGHLY DIVERGENT ON WHEN IT AND ITS IMPACTS
REACH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...STILL A FEW AREAS SEEING MVFR
CIGS BUT THOSE WILL CONTINUE TO MIX OUT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE. CONFIDENCE IN ANY STORM
DIRECTLY IMPACTING A TERMINAL SITE IS LOW...THEREFORE MENTION HAS
BEEN LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS. LOW CIGS AND FOG A GOOD BET OVERNIGHT.
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT NOT WIDESPREAD. LOW
CIGS AND FOG SHOULD MIX OUT BY LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

CIG AND PSBL VSBY RESTRICTIONS LATE WED NIGHT-THU AM AND AGAIN THU
NIGHT INTO FRI AM WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW PORTRAYED IN ALL THE
GUIDANCE. CLIMO IS FAVORABLE FOR FOG/STRATUS THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
SO THAT LENDS TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHWRS/ISO TSTMS IN ONE OR MORE
BANDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PSBL W/ GUSTY WINDS FRI-FRI NIGHT. VFR
SAT AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE W OR NW.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SOLID SCA CONDITIONS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THIS WEEKEND BOTH AHEAD OF /SOUTHERLY FLOW/ AND BEHIND
/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW/ A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT. WINDS/SEAS
GRADUALLY ABATE AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...DFH
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...KRW/DFH
MARINE...KRW/DFH







000
FXUS61 KLWX 301901
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
301 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN TO THE EAST COAST LATER WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY. A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
WILL FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER CUTOFF LOW WILL GRADUALLY PULL OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND MOVE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. UPPER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LAPS ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE BEST INSTABILITY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND OVER THE
NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE CAPES ARE RUNNING AT
500-800 J/KG WITH NO CIN. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THESE AREAS AND ALONG THE MASON/DIXON LINE.
COOLING ALOFT FROM THE UPPER LOW WILL LEAD TO SOME STEEPENING OF
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS BUT NOT EXPECTING SEVERE THRESHOLDS. WILL
ALSO KEEP WORDING OUT OF THE HWO.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HUNG IN LONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT INSTABILITY FROM
CHO TO IAD AND AREAS EAST. A FEW BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WILL OCCUR
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON BUT THINKING IS THAT DESTABILIZATION
WILL BE MINIMAL ACROSS THESE AREAS. HAVE LEFT POPS OUT OF THIS
AREA BUT EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TO SEE IF ANYTHING CAN
DEVELOP.

CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE. BIGGER STORY OVERNIGHT WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THE
FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE...SIMILAR TO THE PATCHY DENSE FOG OF
THIS MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED THE POTENTIAL IN THE WX GRIDS.

UPPER LOW WILL PULL AWAY TO THE NORTH AND EAST ON WEDNESDAY. FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY WITH A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH NOSING INTO THE REGION WILL KEEP AN
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WIND FETCH IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS THAN CLEAR SKY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.

AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC...MID- AND
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL LOWER AND THICKEN
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE OF
SHOWERS PRECEDING THIS TROUGH COULD APPROACH THE WESTERN SLOPES BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY...BUT THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS
THE MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER
AND THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS PRECEDING THE
FRONT EXPECTING TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. MOST AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS
SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY DRY DURING THE DAY. MODELS ARE STILL
DIVERGENT ON TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH WHICH WILL DETERMINE
EXACTLY WHO GETS HOW MUCH RAIN AND WHEN. FORCING WITH THE TROUGH IS
STRONG BUT THERE IS NOT MUCH INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...SO WHILE A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THE CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT WIDESPREAD THUNDER IS UNLIKELY. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGER/HEAVIER BANDS OF RAIN COULD BE
REALIZED ESPECIALLY IF THE TROUGH ENDS UP BEING ON THE STRONGER SIDE.

MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT BY LATER SATURDAY AFTER THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION AND STICK AROUND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...PERHAPS
ISOLATED FREEZING TEMPERATURE READINGS ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES
SATURDAY NIGHT IF WINDS SLACKEN A TAD QUICKER THAN GUIDANCE IS
CURRENTLY SUGGESTING.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK BUT MODELS ARE HIGHLY DIVERGENT ON WHEN IT AND ITS IMPACTS
REACH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...STILL A FEW AREAS SEEING MVFR
CIGS BUT THOSE WILL CONTINUE TO MIX OUT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE. CONFIDENCE IN ANY STORM
DIRECTLY IMPACTING A TERMINAL SITE IS LOW...THEREFORE MENTION HAS
BEEN LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS. LOW CIGS AND FOG A GOOD BET OVERNIGHT.
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT NOT WIDESPREAD. LOW
CIGS AND FOG SHOULD MIX OUT BY LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

CIG AND PSBL VSBY RESTRICTIONS LATE WED NIGHT-THU AM AND AGAIN THU
NIGHT INTO FRI AM WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW PORTRAYED IN ALL THE
GUIDANCE. CLIMO IS FAVORABLE FOR FOG/STRATUS THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
SO THAT LENDS TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHWRS/ISO TSTMS IN ONE OR MORE
BANDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PSBL W/ GUSTY WINDS FRI-FRI NIGHT. VFR
SAT AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE W OR NW.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SOLID SCA CONDITIONS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THIS WEEKEND BOTH AHEAD OF /SOUTHERLY FLOW/ AND BEHIND
/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW/ A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT. WINDS/SEAS
GRADUALLY ABATE AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...DFH
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...KRW/DFH
MARINE...KRW/DFH







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301856
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
256 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER WIDESPREAD RAIN DEPARTS THE REGION THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ON THE REBOUND AGAIN FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BIG TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION WITH UPPER 50S
IN THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND 80 DEGREES
AHEAD OF THE BAND. NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAND IS BEGINNING TO FALL
APART WITH SOME CONVECTIVE CELLS DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THE
LINE...WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION HAS DONE A BETTER JOB HOLDING
TOGETHER...WITH SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LINE
ITSELF. SHOULD NOT BE ANY THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS BEHIND THE BAND.
HOWEVER...WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE ERIE
INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...HAVE KEPT SOME POPS INTO THE FORECAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SOME ISOLATED ECHOES ARE BEGINNING TO
APPEAR ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO. WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER
LOW...HAVE KEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH DIMINISHING TRENDS IN THE AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...THINK THAT STRATUS SHOULD PREVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
MORNING. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AS WELL DUE TO PROXIMITY OF UPPER LOW. ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LARGE SCALE RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN FACT...THE MODEL CONSENSUS DOES FAVOR SOME
SORT OF A WEAK WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WHICH DOES MANAGE TO BRIEFLY INCREASE MOISTURE POOLING
ALONG IT. THIS MAY YIELD AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...HOWEVER GIVEN THE WEAKNESS OF THE BOUNDARY AND
WEAK SATURATION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE FEATURED IN THE
FORECAST.

DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED ON THURSDAY AND
CONTINUES RIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM BEARS DOWN
ON THE AREA. THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAS LARGELY SLOWED RELATIVE TO THE
00Z GUIDANCE AND FAVORS A LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON FRIDAY. POPS WERE SLOWED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WHAT IS
ALSO NOTABLE IS THE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA ON THE GFS/ECMWF. BOTH DEPICT LOWER 80S IN THE EASTERN
REACHES OF THE CWA UNDER A VERY WELL MIXED LOWER ATMOSPHERE IN THE
DRY PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. THIS WILL BE IN STARK CONTRAST TO THE
WESTERN CWA...WHERE DRASTICALLY INCREASED LAYER MOISTURE...500-700
J/KG OF CAPE AND STRONG SHEAR WILL BE RESULTING IN VERY STRONG
CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CHARGING EASTWARD
INTO THE CWA ALONG WITH MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS TO START THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE SLICING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO
EAST AS IT DOES SO. STRONG WINDS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG THE FRONT AS
IT DOES SO OWING TO ROUGHLY 30-35 KTS OF MOMENTUM OFF THE SURFACE
TO MIX DOWN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS COMBINED WITH A DRASTIC
AIR MASS DENSITY DISCONTINUITY SHOULD YIELD A FAIRLY WINDY PERIOD
FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

MUCH COLDER AND STILL UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LOW SETTLES IN OVERHEAD BY
SATURDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DIURNAL INCREASE
IN SHOWERS UNDER THE UPPER LOW ON SATURDAY. WITH WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS FALLING LIKE A ROCK...THERE MAY BE SOME P-TYPE
CONSIDERATIONS...POSSIBLY SOME GRAUPEL OR SOMETHING OF THAT
NATURE...HOWEVER THE GENERAL STORY WILL BE THE TRANSITION TO MUCH
COLDER CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...A GENERAL CONTINUATION OF AN EASTERN TROUGH
AND WESTERN FLAT/BROAD RIDGING SCENARIO SEEMS TO PLAY OUT. THIS
SHOULD YIELD WEAKER AND FASTER MOVING SYSTEMS OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE AND INTO THE EASTERN U.S. WITH GENERALLY COOL CONDITIONS
REMAINING. FRIES

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL FORECASTS INDICATED THAT THE FRONTAL BAND WOULD PASS THROUGH
WITH VFR CONDITIONS...WHILE OBSERVATIONS AT MOST SITES HAVE DROPPED
TO IFR. WITH MODELS NOT HANDLING THE PASSAGE WELL...HAVE GENERALLY
USED UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS FOR CREATING 18Z TAFS. THINK
THAT ANY SORT OF THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD BE CONTAINED TO
DUJ/LBE/MGW AT THIS POINT. BEHIND THE BAND...EXPECT THAT SITES
SHOULD DROP TO IFR FOR A FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...ONE CONCERN IS THAT
IFR CONDITIONS OBSERVED UPSTREAM MAY BE DUE TO LAKE ERIE
INFLUENCE...WHICH WOULD NOT BE AS STRONG AT LOCAL TERMINALS. IN THAT
CASE...WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS MAY NOT OCCUR. BY EVENING...EXPECT
THAT CLOUDS WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD DUE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW. WITH MVFR
STRATUS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...HAVE NOT ADDED FOG AT ANY TERMINALS. AS
STRATUS SCATTERS OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING...REMAINING CLOUDS SHOULD
LIFT TO VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301856
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
256 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER WIDESPREAD RAIN DEPARTS THE REGION THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ON THE REBOUND AGAIN FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BIG TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION WITH UPPER 50S
IN THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND 80 DEGREES
AHEAD OF THE BAND. NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAND IS BEGINNING TO FALL
APART WITH SOME CONVECTIVE CELLS DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THE
LINE...WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION HAS DONE A BETTER JOB HOLDING
TOGETHER...WITH SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LINE
ITSELF. SHOULD NOT BE ANY THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS BEHIND THE BAND.
HOWEVER...WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE ERIE
INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...HAVE KEPT SOME POPS INTO THE FORECAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SOME ISOLATED ECHOES ARE BEGINNING TO
APPEAR ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO. WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER
LOW...HAVE KEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH DIMINISHING TRENDS IN THE AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...THINK THAT STRATUS SHOULD PREVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
MORNING. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AS WELL DUE TO PROXIMITY OF UPPER LOW. ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LARGE SCALE RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN FACT...THE MODEL CONSENSUS DOES FAVOR SOME
SORT OF A WEAK WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WHICH DOES MANAGE TO BRIEFLY INCREASE MOISTURE POOLING
ALONG IT. THIS MAY YIELD AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...HOWEVER GIVEN THE WEAKNESS OF THE BOUNDARY AND
WEAK SATURATION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE FEATURED IN THE
FORECAST.

DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED ON THURSDAY AND
CONTINUES RIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM BEARS DOWN
ON THE AREA. THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAS LARGELY SLOWED RELATIVE TO THE
00Z GUIDANCE AND FAVORS A LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON FRIDAY. POPS WERE SLOWED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WHAT IS
ALSO NOTABLE IS THE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA ON THE GFS/ECMWF. BOTH DEPICT LOWER 80S IN THE EASTERN
REACHES OF THE CWA UNDER A VERY WELL MIXED LOWER ATMOSPHERE IN THE
DRY PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. THIS WILL BE IN STARK CONTRAST TO THE
WESTERN CWA...WHERE DRASTICALLY INCREASED LAYER MOISTURE...500-700
J/KG OF CAPE AND STRONG SHEAR WILL BE RESULTING IN VERY STRONG
CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CHARGING EASTWARD
INTO THE CWA ALONG WITH MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS TO START THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE SLICING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO
EAST AS IT DOES SO. STRONG WINDS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG THE FRONT AS
IT DOES SO OWING TO ROUGHLY 30-35 KTS OF MOMENTUM OFF THE SURFACE
TO MIX DOWN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS COMBINED WITH A DRASTIC
AIR MASS DENSITY DISCONTINUITY SHOULD YIELD A FAIRLY WINDY PERIOD
FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

MUCH COLDER AND STILL UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LOW SETTLES IN OVERHEAD BY
SATURDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DIURNAL INCREASE
IN SHOWERS UNDER THE UPPER LOW ON SATURDAY. WITH WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS FALLING LIKE A ROCK...THERE MAY BE SOME P-TYPE
CONSIDERATIONS...POSSIBLY SOME GRAUPEL OR SOMETHING OF THAT
NATURE...HOWEVER THE GENERAL STORY WILL BE THE TRANSITION TO MUCH
COLDER CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...A GENERAL CONTINUATION OF AN EASTERN TROUGH
AND WESTERN FLAT/BROAD RIDGING SCENARIO SEEMS TO PLAY OUT. THIS
SHOULD YIELD WEAKER AND FASTER MOVING SYSTEMS OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE AND INTO THE EASTERN U.S. WITH GENERALLY COOL CONDITIONS
REMAINING. FRIES

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL FORECASTS INDICATED THAT THE FRONTAL BAND WOULD PASS THROUGH
WITH VFR CONDITIONS...WHILE OBSERVATIONS AT MOST SITES HAVE DROPPED
TO IFR. WITH MODELS NOT HANDLING THE PASSAGE WELL...HAVE GENERALLY
USED UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS FOR CREATING 18Z TAFS. THINK
THAT ANY SORT OF THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD BE CONTAINED TO
DUJ/LBE/MGW AT THIS POINT. BEHIND THE BAND...EXPECT THAT SITES
SHOULD DROP TO IFR FOR A FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...ONE CONCERN IS THAT
IFR CONDITIONS OBSERVED UPSTREAM MAY BE DUE TO LAKE ERIE
INFLUENCE...WHICH WOULD NOT BE AS STRONG AT LOCAL TERMINALS. IN THAT
CASE...WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS MAY NOT OCCUR. BY EVENING...EXPECT
THAT CLOUDS WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD DUE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW. WITH MVFR
STRATUS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...HAVE NOT ADDED FOG AT ANY TERMINALS. AS
STRATUS SCATTERS OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING...REMAINING CLOUDS SHOULD
LIFT TO VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301856
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
256 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER WIDESPREAD RAIN DEPARTS THE REGION THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ON THE REBOUND AGAIN FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BIG TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION WITH UPPER 50S
IN THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND 80 DEGREES
AHEAD OF THE BAND. NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAND IS BEGINNING TO FALL
APART WITH SOME CONVECTIVE CELLS DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THE
LINE...WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION HAS DONE A BETTER JOB HOLDING
TOGETHER...WITH SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LINE
ITSELF. SHOULD NOT BE ANY THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS BEHIND THE BAND.
HOWEVER...WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE ERIE
INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...HAVE KEPT SOME POPS INTO THE FORECAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SOME ISOLATED ECHOES ARE BEGINNING TO
APPEAR ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO. WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER
LOW...HAVE KEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH DIMINISHING TRENDS IN THE AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...THINK THAT STRATUS SHOULD PREVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
MORNING. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AS WELL DUE TO PROXIMITY OF UPPER LOW. ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LARGE SCALE RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN FACT...THE MODEL CONSENSUS DOES FAVOR SOME
SORT OF A WEAK WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WHICH DOES MANAGE TO BRIEFLY INCREASE MOISTURE POOLING
ALONG IT. THIS MAY YIELD AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...HOWEVER GIVEN THE WEAKNESS OF THE BOUNDARY AND
WEAK SATURATION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE FEATURED IN THE
FORECAST.

DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED ON THURSDAY AND
CONTINUES RIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM BEARS DOWN
ON THE AREA. THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAS LARGELY SLOWED RELATIVE TO THE
00Z GUIDANCE AND FAVORS A LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON FRIDAY. POPS WERE SLOWED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WHAT IS
ALSO NOTABLE IS THE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA ON THE GFS/ECMWF. BOTH DEPICT LOWER 80S IN THE EASTERN
REACHES OF THE CWA UNDER A VERY WELL MIXED LOWER ATMOSPHERE IN THE
DRY PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. THIS WILL BE IN STARK CONTRAST TO THE
WESTERN CWA...WHERE DRASTICALLY INCREASED LAYER MOISTURE...500-700
J/KG OF CAPE AND STRONG SHEAR WILL BE RESULTING IN VERY STRONG
CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CHARGING EASTWARD
INTO THE CWA ALONG WITH MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS TO START THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE SLICING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO
EAST AS IT DOES SO. STRONG WINDS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG THE FRONT AS
IT DOES SO OWING TO ROUGHLY 30-35 KTS OF MOMENTUM OFF THE SURFACE
TO MIX DOWN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS COMBINED WITH A DRASTIC
AIR MASS DENSITY DISCONTINUITY SHOULD YIELD A FAIRLY WINDY PERIOD
FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

MUCH COLDER AND STILL UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LOW SETTLES IN OVERHEAD BY
SATURDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DIURNAL INCREASE
IN SHOWERS UNDER THE UPPER LOW ON SATURDAY. WITH WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS FALLING LIKE A ROCK...THERE MAY BE SOME P-TYPE
CONSIDERATIONS...POSSIBLY SOME GRAUPEL OR SOMETHING OF THAT
NATURE...HOWEVER THE GENERAL STORY WILL BE THE TRANSITION TO MUCH
COLDER CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...A GENERAL CONTINUATION OF AN EASTERN TROUGH
AND WESTERN FLAT/BROAD RIDGING SCENARIO SEEMS TO PLAY OUT. THIS
SHOULD YIELD WEAKER AND FASTER MOVING SYSTEMS OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE AND INTO THE EASTERN U.S. WITH GENERALLY COOL CONDITIONS
REMAINING. FRIES

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL FORECASTS INDICATED THAT THE FRONTAL BAND WOULD PASS THROUGH
WITH VFR CONDITIONS...WHILE OBSERVATIONS AT MOST SITES HAVE DROPPED
TO IFR. WITH MODELS NOT HANDLING THE PASSAGE WELL...HAVE GENERALLY
USED UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS FOR CREATING 18Z TAFS. THINK
THAT ANY SORT OF THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD BE CONTAINED TO
DUJ/LBE/MGW AT THIS POINT. BEHIND THE BAND...EXPECT THAT SITES
SHOULD DROP TO IFR FOR A FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...ONE CONCERN IS THAT
IFR CONDITIONS OBSERVED UPSTREAM MAY BE DUE TO LAKE ERIE
INFLUENCE...WHICH WOULD NOT BE AS STRONG AT LOCAL TERMINALS. IN THAT
CASE...WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS MAY NOT OCCUR. BY EVENING...EXPECT
THAT CLOUDS WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD DUE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW. WITH MVFR
STRATUS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...HAVE NOT ADDED FOG AT ANY TERMINALS. AS
STRATUS SCATTERS OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING...REMAINING CLOUDS SHOULD
LIFT TO VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301856
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
256 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER WIDESPREAD RAIN DEPARTS THE REGION THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ON THE REBOUND AGAIN FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BIG TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION WITH UPPER 50S
IN THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND 80 DEGREES
AHEAD OF THE BAND. NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAND IS BEGINNING TO FALL
APART WITH SOME CONVECTIVE CELLS DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THE
LINE...WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION HAS DONE A BETTER JOB HOLDING
TOGETHER...WITH SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LINE
ITSELF. SHOULD NOT BE ANY THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS BEHIND THE BAND.
HOWEVER...WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE ERIE
INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...HAVE KEPT SOME POPS INTO THE FORECAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SOME ISOLATED ECHOES ARE BEGINNING TO
APPEAR ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO. WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER
LOW...HAVE KEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH DIMINISHING TRENDS IN THE AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...THINK THAT STRATUS SHOULD PREVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
MORNING. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AS WELL DUE TO PROXIMITY OF UPPER LOW. ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LARGE SCALE RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN FACT...THE MODEL CONSENSUS DOES FAVOR SOME
SORT OF A WEAK WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WHICH DOES MANAGE TO BRIEFLY INCREASE MOISTURE POOLING
ALONG IT. THIS MAY YIELD AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...HOWEVER GIVEN THE WEAKNESS OF THE BOUNDARY AND
WEAK SATURATION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE FEATURED IN THE
FORECAST.

DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED ON THURSDAY AND
CONTINUES RIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM BEARS DOWN
ON THE AREA. THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAS LARGELY SLOWED RELATIVE TO THE
00Z GUIDANCE AND FAVORS A LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON FRIDAY. POPS WERE SLOWED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WHAT IS
ALSO NOTABLE IS THE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA ON THE GFS/ECMWF. BOTH DEPICT LOWER 80S IN THE EASTERN
REACHES OF THE CWA UNDER A VERY WELL MIXED LOWER ATMOSPHERE IN THE
DRY PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. THIS WILL BE IN STARK CONTRAST TO THE
WESTERN CWA...WHERE DRASTICALLY INCREASED LAYER MOISTURE...500-700
J/KG OF CAPE AND STRONG SHEAR WILL BE RESULTING IN VERY STRONG
CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CHARGING EASTWARD
INTO THE CWA ALONG WITH MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS TO START THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE SLICING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO
EAST AS IT DOES SO. STRONG WINDS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG THE FRONT AS
IT DOES SO OWING TO ROUGHLY 30-35 KTS OF MOMENTUM OFF THE SURFACE
TO MIX DOWN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS COMBINED WITH A DRASTIC
AIR MASS DENSITY DISCONTINUITY SHOULD YIELD A FAIRLY WINDY PERIOD
FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

MUCH COLDER AND STILL UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LOW SETTLES IN OVERHEAD BY
SATURDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DIURNAL INCREASE
IN SHOWERS UNDER THE UPPER LOW ON SATURDAY. WITH WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS FALLING LIKE A ROCK...THERE MAY BE SOME P-TYPE
CONSIDERATIONS...POSSIBLY SOME GRAUPEL OR SOMETHING OF THAT
NATURE...HOWEVER THE GENERAL STORY WILL BE THE TRANSITION TO MUCH
COLDER CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...A GENERAL CONTINUATION OF AN EASTERN TROUGH
AND WESTERN FLAT/BROAD RIDGING SCENARIO SEEMS TO PLAY OUT. THIS
SHOULD YIELD WEAKER AND FASTER MOVING SYSTEMS OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE AND INTO THE EASTERN U.S. WITH GENERALLY COOL CONDITIONS
REMAINING. FRIES

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL FORECASTS INDICATED THAT THE FRONTAL BAND WOULD PASS THROUGH
WITH VFR CONDITIONS...WHILE OBSERVATIONS AT MOST SITES HAVE DROPPED
TO IFR. WITH MODELS NOT HANDLING THE PASSAGE WELL...HAVE GENERALLY
USED UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS FOR CREATING 18Z TAFS. THINK
THAT ANY SORT OF THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD BE CONTAINED TO
DUJ/LBE/MGW AT THIS POINT. BEHIND THE BAND...EXPECT THAT SITES
SHOULD DROP TO IFR FOR A FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...ONE CONCERN IS THAT
IFR CONDITIONS OBSERVED UPSTREAM MAY BE DUE TO LAKE ERIE
INFLUENCE...WHICH WOULD NOT BE AS STRONG AT LOCAL TERMINALS. IN THAT
CASE...WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS MAY NOT OCCUR. BY EVENING...EXPECT
THAT CLOUDS WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD DUE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW. WITH MVFR
STRATUS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...HAVE NOT ADDED FOG AT ANY TERMINALS. AS
STRATUS SCATTERS OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING...REMAINING CLOUDS SHOULD
LIFT TO VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 301737
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
137 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING
A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PCPN WAS MOVNG OFF THE CST EARLY THIS MORNG...AND A TROF OF LO
PRES WILL FOLLOW OUT TO SEA DURING THIS MORNG. BUT...WILL HAVE TO
DEAL WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND STRATUS ACRS MUCH OF THE REGION
THRU 8 OR 9 AM...DUE TO MOIST GROUND AND VRY LGT OR NO WIND. THE
REST OF TODAY...FCST AREA WILL BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING TROF
SFC-ALOFT OFFSHR...AND A STRONGER UPR LVL TROF PUSHING SE FM THE
GRT LKS. SKY SHOULD BECOME AT LEAST PARTLY SNY FOR LATER THIS
MORNG THRU THIS AFTN WITH LGT NE OR E WINDS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE 75
TO 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR LVL LO PRES WILL SWING ACRS SRN ENGLAND AND OFF THE CST TNGT
INTO WED NGT...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED TROF SFC-ALOFT THRU THE FCST
AREA WITH BKN CLOUDINESS AND MAINLY SLGT CHC POPS (MAINLY NNE
PORTIONS). OTHERWISE...VARIABLE CLOUDS TO PRTLY CLOUDY. LO TEMPS
TNGT WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO THE LWR 60S. HI TEMPS ON WED
WILL RANGE FM THE LWR TO MID 70S ON THE ERN SHR...TO THE UPR 70S
TO LWR 80S ELSEWHERE.

HI PRES FM NEW ENGLAND BLDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION LATER WED
NGT THRU THU...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF ENE WINDS. MODELS
SUGGEST THAT INLAND LOCATIONS HAVE A LO PROBABILITY FOR ISLTD
SHOWERS (THU MORNG) ALONG WITH VARIABLE CLOUDS. MAINLY PRTLY
CLOUDY TWD THE CST. LO TEMPS WED NGT WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO
THE LWR 60S. HI TEMPS ON THU WILL RANGE FM THE MID 70S TO ARND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A
CONTINUATION OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM.
FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

MODELS ARE RATHER CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT TO MOVE
INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
HAVE 50 PERCENT CHC FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA BEGINNING WESTERN
PORTIONS FRIDAY EVENING AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING. WENT NO HIGHER THAN 50 PERCENT BUT
AS CONFIDENCE IN THE EVENT INCREASES...FUTURE ISSUANCES WILL
PROBABLY HAVE LIKELY POPS. CURRENTLY WPC HAS ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH QPF WITH THE MAIN PART OF THE PCPN PROBABLY LASTING ABOUT SIX
HOURS AT ANY LOCATION.

FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 INLAND AND MID 70S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS IN THE
UPR 60S TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY EXCEPT ON
SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY MID TO UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE UPR
50S TO LWR 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING LOWER TO THE UPR 40S TO
MID 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RATHER STRONG INVERSION ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTRN IS KEEPING
THE SC DECK (ARND 2K FT) IN TACT WHILE ONLY SCT SC NOTED ALONG
THE COAST. SUN IS SLOWLY ERODING THE EDGES OF THE SC DECK BUT IT
MAY TAKE A FEW MORE HRS FOR IT TO SCT OUT AT RIC. OTW...COMBO OF
THE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND ABUNDANT LL MSTR WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
ANTHR NITE FOR STRATUS / FOG TO DVLP. APPEARS PIEDMONT AND INLAND
SCTNS OF THE LWR MD ERN SHORE AS MODELS POINT TO SOME IFR FOG LATE
NITE / WED MORN THERE. ADDED A PRD OF ST / BR TO RIC / SBY AS MODELS
ARE FAIRLY CONSISTANT THIS WILL OCCUR. ONLY MVFR BR ADDED TO SERN
TAF SITES AS CONFIDENCE THERE NOT AS HIGH.

ST / FOG SLOWLY BURN OFF BY 15Z WED AHEAD OF APPRCHG CD FRNT PROGGED
FOR LATER IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...DRY WX IS XPCTD THRU FRI BUT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS
OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT LGT N-NW WINDS AOB 10KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
MORNING. WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE, SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SE COAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. N-NE WINDS 5-10 KT TODAY WILL INCREASE TO 10-15KT TONIGHT
AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 3-4 FT LATE
TONIGHT/ERY WED, HIGHEST OVER OFFSHORE WATERS. NE WINDS REMAIN
SUB-SCA WED/THU, THOUGH NWPS/WAVEWATCH BOTH INCREASE SEAS INTO SCA
RANGE THURSDAY/FRIDAY. HV HELD OFF WITH SCA FLAGS FOR THE MOMENT
WITH CONDITIONS STILL APPEARING MARGINAL ATTM. WINDS VEER AROUND TO
THE S-SW FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT, WHICH CROSSES INTO THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY, WITH WINDS
QUICKLY SWINGING AROUND TO THE NW POST-FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS
AND SEAS DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MAM






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 301737
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
137 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING
A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PCPN WAS MOVNG OFF THE CST EARLY THIS MORNG...AND A TROF OF LO
PRES WILL FOLLOW OUT TO SEA DURING THIS MORNG. BUT...WILL HAVE TO
DEAL WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND STRATUS ACRS MUCH OF THE REGION
THRU 8 OR 9 AM...DUE TO MOIST GROUND AND VRY LGT OR NO WIND. THE
REST OF TODAY...FCST AREA WILL BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING TROF
SFC-ALOFT OFFSHR...AND A STRONGER UPR LVL TROF PUSHING SE FM THE
GRT LKS. SKY SHOULD BECOME AT LEAST PARTLY SNY FOR LATER THIS
MORNG THRU THIS AFTN WITH LGT NE OR E WINDS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE 75
TO 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR LVL LO PRES WILL SWING ACRS SRN ENGLAND AND OFF THE CST TNGT
INTO WED NGT...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED TROF SFC-ALOFT THRU THE FCST
AREA WITH BKN CLOUDINESS AND MAINLY SLGT CHC POPS (MAINLY NNE
PORTIONS). OTHERWISE...VARIABLE CLOUDS TO PRTLY CLOUDY. LO TEMPS
TNGT WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO THE LWR 60S. HI TEMPS ON WED
WILL RANGE FM THE LWR TO MID 70S ON THE ERN SHR...TO THE UPR 70S
TO LWR 80S ELSEWHERE.

HI PRES FM NEW ENGLAND BLDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION LATER WED
NGT THRU THU...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF ENE WINDS. MODELS
SUGGEST THAT INLAND LOCATIONS HAVE A LO PROBABILITY FOR ISLTD
SHOWERS (THU MORNG) ALONG WITH VARIABLE CLOUDS. MAINLY PRTLY
CLOUDY TWD THE CST. LO TEMPS WED NGT WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO
THE LWR 60S. HI TEMPS ON THU WILL RANGE FM THE MID 70S TO ARND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A
CONTINUATION OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM.
FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

MODELS ARE RATHER CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT TO MOVE
INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
HAVE 50 PERCENT CHC FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA BEGINNING WESTERN
PORTIONS FRIDAY EVENING AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING. WENT NO HIGHER THAN 50 PERCENT BUT
AS CONFIDENCE IN THE EVENT INCREASES...FUTURE ISSUANCES WILL
PROBABLY HAVE LIKELY POPS. CURRENTLY WPC HAS ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH QPF WITH THE MAIN PART OF THE PCPN PROBABLY LASTING ABOUT SIX
HOURS AT ANY LOCATION.

FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 INLAND AND MID 70S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS IN THE
UPR 60S TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY EXCEPT ON
SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY MID TO UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE UPR
50S TO LWR 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING LOWER TO THE UPR 40S TO
MID 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RATHER STRONG INVERSION ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTRN IS KEEPING
THE SC DECK (ARND 2K FT) IN TACT WHILE ONLY SCT SC NOTED ALONG
THE COAST. SUN IS SLOWLY ERODING THE EDGES OF THE SC DECK BUT IT
MAY TAKE A FEW MORE HRS FOR IT TO SCT OUT AT RIC. OTW...COMBO OF
THE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND ABUNDANT LL MSTR WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
ANTHR NITE FOR STRATUS / FOG TO DVLP. APPEARS PIEDMONT AND INLAND
SCTNS OF THE LWR MD ERN SHORE AS MODELS POINT TO SOME IFR FOG LATE
NITE / WED MORN THERE. ADDED A PRD OF ST / BR TO RIC / SBY AS MODELS
ARE FAIRLY CONSISTANT THIS WILL OCCUR. ONLY MVFR BR ADDED TO SERN
TAF SITES AS CONFIDENCE THERE NOT AS HIGH.

ST / FOG SLOWLY BURN OFF BY 15Z WED AHEAD OF APPRCHG CD FRNT PROGGED
FOR LATER IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...DRY WX IS XPCTD THRU FRI BUT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS
OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT LGT N-NW WINDS AOB 10KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
MORNING. WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE, SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SE COAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. N-NE WINDS 5-10 KT TODAY WILL INCREASE TO 10-15KT TONIGHT
AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 3-4 FT LATE
TONIGHT/ERY WED, HIGHEST OVER OFFSHORE WATERS. NE WINDS REMAIN
SUB-SCA WED/THU, THOUGH NWPS/WAVEWATCH BOTH INCREASE SEAS INTO SCA
RANGE THURSDAY/FRIDAY. HV HELD OFF WITH SCA FLAGS FOR THE MOMENT
WITH CONDITIONS STILL APPEARING MARGINAL ATTM. WINDS VEER AROUND TO
THE S-SW FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT, WHICH CROSSES INTO THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY, WITH WINDS
QUICKLY SWINGING AROUND TO THE NW POST-FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS
AND SEAS DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MAM







000
FXUS61 KPHI 301644
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1244 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WEAK FRONT WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FOR LATER
MONDAY AND INTO NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE MIDDAY UPDATE, WE ADJUSTED SKY COVER ACROSS THE REGION TO
REFLECT THE CLEARING SEEN ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. SOME
SCATTERED CUMULUS IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP, THOUGH, AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPS ARE BEING MET, AND THIS WILL INCREASE SOME THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WITH REGARDS TO ANY POSSIBLE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LATE-DAY SHOWER ACTIVITY, WE TRIMMED IT BACK SOME
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING, BASED ON HRRR GUIDANCE.
HIGHEST CHANCE POPS ARE STILL CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WERE TWEAKED USING
THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE, AND WE NUDGED MAX TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE
OR TWO IN A FEW SPOTS.

REST OF TODAY...BETWEEN SHORT WAVES IT SHOULD BE QUIET THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SOME SUNSHINE VSBY AT TIMES THROUGH THE
SCATTERED CLOUDS. AFTERNOON HEATING DEVELOPS SMALL SHOWERS NW OF
I95 WHICH PROBABLY HAVE A TENDENCY TO DRIFT WEST. IF THERE IS TO
BE ANY THUNDER THIS FAR EAST...IT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR
WESTERN EDGE OF OUR FCST AREA WESTERN BERKS INTO THE POCONOS.

OVERALL: TEMPS ABOUT 7F WARMER THAN NORMAL AND THE ENTIRE MONTH OF
SEPTEMBER SHOULD AVERAGE ABOUT 1.5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS.

FCST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/30 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...COOL POOL ALOFT SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH 500MB
TEMPS NEAR -15-16C. BANDS OF SHOWERS MAY BE OCCURRING WITH SUBTLE
LIFT FROM BOTH WEAK BUT DEEP ELY MOIST WINDS NORTH OF I78 AND THE
BACKDOOR COOL FRONT CONVERGENCE ZONE DRIVEN BY THE STRENGTHENING
NE FLOW NE OF THE BACKDOOR CF.

ADDITIONALLY FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE COOLER BL AIR NE OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

TEMPS ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL.

FCST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/30 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LAST OF THE UPPER LOW AND WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE EXITING THE
AREA WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME SCT SHOWERS...MOSTLY DURING THE FIRST
PART OF THE DAY. WE HAVE RETAINED THE CHC POPS FROM EARLIER. THE
POPS DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM W TO E. TEMPERATURES WED
NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...MOSTLY LOW/MID 70S.

WED NIGHT THRU FRI MORNING...MOSTLY DRY WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
DAYTIME PERIODS AND MOSTLY CLR OVERNIGHTS. TEMPERATURES
AGAIN...NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

FRI AFTERNOON THRU SATURDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER
CONSISTENT WITH A 6 HR OR SO WINDOW OF QPF CENTERED AROUND FRI
EVENING. WE HAVE UPPER THE POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE EVENING PERIOD
WITH THE EXTRA CONFID IN MULTIPLE/CONSISTENT TRENDS. PROBABILITIES
FOR THUNDER LOOK LOW AT THIS POINT SO WE WILL HOLD ON THAT...SOME
GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FROPA HOWEVER. TEMPS WILL DROP BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL SAT WITH DECENT COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED AFTER
FROPA.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...ANOTHER DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN, TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
SUNDAY...BUT BACK TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY. LOWS BOTH SAT AND SUN
NIGHTS WILL FEATURE LOW 40S NORTH RANGING TO THE LOW 50S OVER THE
DELMARVA AND METRO PHILADELPHIA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TODAY...MOSTLY SCT- BKN CLOUDS AOA 4000 TO 5000 FT FOR
ALL SITES WITH A POSSIBLE SHOWER VCNTY KRDG/KABE LATE IN THE DAY.
LIGHT SOUTH WIND TURNING E, REMAINING UNDER 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...WIND BECOMING NE AT 5-15 KT AND A DECK OF IFR ST/FOG SHOULD
DEVELOP SOUTHWESTWARD FROM LONG ISLAND BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY MOVING SW FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
N OF KPHL.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SCT SHOWERS WITH SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. E/NE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...MORNING FOG WITH LOCAL LOWER CIGS/VSBYS...THEN MOSTLY
VFR. N WIND GUST 15 KT...BECOMING NE LATE.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY...A FEW MORNING SHOWERS EAST...THEN VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES ATTM.

TODAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS AOB 3 FT TODAY WITH THE S-SW WIND
TURNING TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST.

TONIGHT...NE WINDS INCREASING WITH GUSTS TO 22 KT LATE AND SEAS
BUILDING TO NEAR 4 FT BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FT
THROUGH 8AM WEDNESDAY AS I BELIEVE THE GFS WW3 GUIDANCE IS TOO
SOON TOO HIGH.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THRU WED NIGHT: NE FLOW WITH BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS AND SCA
CRITERIA EXPECTED ALONG THE NNJ COAST AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD
TO THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS ABOVE 22 KT WITH ANY SCA
HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY. HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING ANY FORMAL
HEADLINES ON THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS CONDITIONS WILL JUST MEET
LOWER END SCA CRITERIA AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF A CONTINUING SCA FLAG SEAS ON THE
ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.
CONDITIONS MAY DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA LATE.

FRIDAY...SOUTH WINDS INCREASING AND BUILDING SEAS. SCA CONDITIONS
A GOOD BET BY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS LATE.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS EARLY WITH SCT SHOWERS...THEN WINDS AND SEAS
DIMINISHING LATE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/KLINE
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/KLINE/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301611
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1211 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH NOON UPDATE...CONTINUED TO UPDATE POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.
BAND OF FRONTAL PRECIPITATION IS DECREASING IN OVERALL
INTENSITY...BUT HAVE MANAGED TO HOLD TOGETHER FAIRLY WELL AS IT
APPROACHES WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND THE NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES ARE RISING INTO THE MID 70S WHERE SKIES
REMAIN CLEAR...BUT HAVE ALREADY SEEN NEW CASTLE AND NEW
PHILADELPHIA DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE CLOUD
COVER REMAINS THICK. LIGHTNING COVERAGE HAS BEEN RATHER SPARSE
ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO...BUT HAVE CONTINUED A MENTION OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM FOR ALL LOCATIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MENTION OF
SMALL HAIL IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WEAKENS THIS EVENING. THE 50H LOW OPENS UP AND
WHATS LEFT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DRIFTS INTO EASTERN PA.

UPPER LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY WILL SWING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
EXITING 50H LOW SO WILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN
THE FAR EAST FOR A PORTION OF THE EVENING HOURS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW ON THURSDAY...
PROVIDING SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL SEEING SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY. LATEST NAM IS SLOWING EVERYTHING DOWN...GFS IS THE MOST
PROGRESSIVE AND THE 12Z ECMWF IS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. FRIDAY DOES
APPEAR LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED WIDESPREAD RAIN.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT FROM THE QUIET WE HAVE EXPERIENCED
OVER THE LAST TWO OR SO WEEKS...TO A MORE ACTIVE AND COOLER
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...HAVE ESSENTIALLY IGNORED MODEL
GUIDANCE...AS MODELS HAVE BEEN COMPLETELY TOO OPTIMISTIC IN
UPSTREAM LOCATIONS. WHILE MODELS INDICATE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH WITH VFR CONDITIONS...LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. IN
ADDITION...VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO 3/4 MILE AND 1 1/4 MILE AT
ZANESVILLE AND NEW PHILADELPHIA...RESPECTIVELY. HAVE LOWER
CONFIDENCE THAT BAND OF SHOWERS WILL HOLD TOGETHER WELL ENOUGH TO
RESULT IN SUCH LOW VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AT DUJ/LBE/MGW...BUT AT
OTHER LOCATIONS...HAVE PUT IN IFR CONDITIONS FOR THE BRIEF PERIOD
OF SHOWERS...AS WELL AS RESTRICTIONS CONTINUING BEHIND THE FRONT
AS WELL. HAVE KEPT VCTS IN MOST TAFS AS WELL...ALTHOUGH SO FAR
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE HAS BEEN RATHER SPARSE.

EXPECT CLEARING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...WITH RAINFALL TODAY LIKELY
TO ENHANCE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS FOR SUNRISE FOG.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KLWX 301423 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1023 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ERIE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S. THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING BRINGING RAIN CHANCES TO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINED SOCKED IN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS
MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
EXTENDS SOUTH INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION PROVIDING A BIT OF A
CAD WEDGE OVER THE REGION. 12Z IAD SOUNDING ALSO SHOWING A STOUT
INVERSION AT 850MB WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW AT THE LOWEST LEVELS.
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD IN PLACE AT LEAST INTO MIDDAY...AWAITING
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A CUTOFF UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE IN AND MIX OUT THE
CLOUD COVER BUT A BIT LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. WILL LOWER DAYTIME MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR THESE
LOCATIONS. PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BURN
OFF.

WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...SOME PATCHY FOG REMAINS IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS BUT CLOUD COVER HAS FOR THE MOST PART ERODED OUT. ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE MID LEVELS
TODAY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING MAINLY WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. COOLING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO SOME STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WITH SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE BUT ANY SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

PATCHY FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE MAY DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT. LOWS
WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT 60S IN THE
METRO AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER CUTOFF LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OFF THE COAST DURING
WEDNESDAY. PATCHY MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION FROM THE WEST
BRINGING A BIT MORE SUNSHINE AND A RETURN TO TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LOW WED NIGHT...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
TRAPPED OVER THE MID-ATLC REGION TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. THU
WILL BE MAINLY DRY...BUT WAVERING BETWEEN CLOUDY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY.
THESE SKY CONDITIONS WILL MODERATE TEMPS...AS THEY DID ON MON. EVEN
W/ A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDING OVERHEAD...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
REMAIN MOIST. A HANDFUL OF LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS
BUT BARELY ENOUGH TO WARRENT POPS ACROSS THESE AREAS. THE SKY COVER
WILL BE A FAIRLY SHALLOW LOW STRATUS DECK THAT WILL BEGIN TO MIX OUT
DURING THE LATE AFTN HRS - W/ SOME POKES OF SUN BEFORE EVE.

A MODERATED OVERNIGHT TEMP PROFILE THU NIGHT. EVEN THOUGH A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL BE FAST-APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/TENN
VLY...OUR AREA WILL BE WELL E OF THIS FEATURE OVERNIGHT AND HAVE
ANOTHER RELATIVELY WARM NIGHT SET-UP FOR THE REGION/.

SMALLER UPPER WAVES OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY WILL MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE CNTRL APLCNS AND BEGIN TO COMBINE OR AT LEAST INTERACT AS THEY
REACH THE MS VLY REGION. WHAT STARTED AS A MORE COMPACT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS ON THU WILL BE A MORE POTENT AND EXTENSIVE
SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM THE GULF COAST TO NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY FRI. THE MAIN RESULTANT VORT MAX WILL START TO DISSIPATE AS IT
CROSSES THE SRN APLCNS AND MOVES TOWARD THE VA TIDEWATER REGION.

SLIGHTLY LAGGING BEHIND BUT NOT LACKING ANY PUNCH WILL BE YET
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE - THIS ONE PACKING THE CANADIAN AIR - WILL SWING
IN FROM THE BEHIND LATER IN THE DAY. A WAVE OF PRE-FRONTAL RAINS
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EAST COAST...INCLUDING OUR REGION...BUT IT
DEPENDS ON THIS SECONDARY INCOMING CANADIAN AIRMASS. THE STRENGTH
AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE COMING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EAST
COAST SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE IF MUCH OF PRECIP DISSIPATES AND PULLS
UP NORTH OF US LATE FRI NIGHT. THE GFS IS LESS-SHARP W/ THE INCOMING
TROUGH AXIS THAN THE RUN AT THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. A COMPLEX COUPLE
OF UPPER VORT LOBES WILL BE SWINGING AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AS IT NEARS THE AREA. EACH ONE COULD INDIVIDUALLY HAVE AN
INFLUENCE...LIKE DIGGING THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH OR FORCING A BRIEF
AREA OF STRONG LIFT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...THE DYNAMICS
OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD LARGELY EXIT OFF TO THE NORTH INTO EARLY
SAT...LIMITING NOT ONLY THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL BUT RAIN POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE REGION. NOT MUCH QPF BEING PRINTED-OUT BY LONG TERM
GUIDANCE AS MODELS LARGELY BYPASS OUR AREA FOR RAINFALL. SEEMS
REASONABLE W/ WHERE THE DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE AND THE
RELATIVE MOVEMENT AWAY FROM THE AREA.

HIGHS ON FRI WILL LIKELY REACH THE M-U70S AND THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THRU OVERNIGHT...LOWS WILL STILL ONLY DROP INTO THE 50S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. THE MTNS WILL START TO SEE 40S OVERNIGHT W/ THE
COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR COMING IN...BUT THE FRONT WON`T ARRIVE QUICK
ENOUGH TO REALLY COOL OFF THE AREA - THAT WILL BE THE NEXT NIGHT.
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE APPROACHING ON SAT...SO CONDITIONS WILL BE
PLEASANT W/ HIGHS IN THE L70S AND A DRIER AIRMASS...BUT W/ THE
TROUGH AXIS SLIDING OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY - SWEEPING IN THE
COLDER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS...OVERNIGHT LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL DROP
BACK INTO THE U40S AND L50S. ANOTHER ONE-DAY REPRIEVE BEFORE ANOTHER
CLIPPER SHORTWAVE LACKING PRECIP WILL SWING DOWN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...REINFORCING THE COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. FOG WILL LIKELY BURN OFF FIRST BUT CLOUDS
WILL HOLD IN LONGER. WILL KEEP SUB VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY THEN RISING. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE GENERALLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS/STORMS
IMPACTING THE TERMINALS THUS WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION. ADDITIONAL
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS IN PLACE. PERIODIC LIFTING OF THE STRATUS DECK
HEIGHT POSSIBLE...ESPC DURING THE AFTN HRS EACH DAY UNTIL FRI.
SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL A FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE FRI NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT COOLER AND
DRIER CANADIAN AIRMASS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS BLO SCA VALUES TDA THRU WED.

AN UPPER LOW MOVING OFF THE NY/NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP AN ARM OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE REGION ON THU. ALTHOUGH
WE`LL BE DRY THAT DAY...SLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE FRI...BRINGING
NW WINDS BEHIND IT THAT WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...KRW
LONG TERM...GMS/KRW
AVIATION...GMS/KRW
MARINE...GMS/KRW








000
FXUS61 KLWX 301423 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1023 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ERIE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S. THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING BRINGING RAIN CHANCES TO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINED SOCKED IN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS
MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
EXTENDS SOUTH INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION PROVIDING A BIT OF A
CAD WEDGE OVER THE REGION. 12Z IAD SOUNDING ALSO SHOWING A STOUT
INVERSION AT 850MB WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW AT THE LOWEST LEVELS.
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD IN PLACE AT LEAST INTO MIDDAY...AWAITING
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A CUTOFF UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE IN AND MIX OUT THE
CLOUD COVER BUT A BIT LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. WILL LOWER DAYTIME MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR THESE
LOCATIONS. PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BURN
OFF.

WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...SOME PATCHY FOG REMAINS IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS BUT CLOUD COVER HAS FOR THE MOST PART ERODED OUT. ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE MID LEVELS
TODAY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING MAINLY WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. COOLING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO SOME STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WITH SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE BUT ANY SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

PATCHY FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE MAY DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT. LOWS
WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT 60S IN THE
METRO AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER CUTOFF LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OFF THE COAST DURING
WEDNESDAY. PATCHY MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION FROM THE WEST
BRINGING A BIT MORE SUNSHINE AND A RETURN TO TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LOW WED NIGHT...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
TRAPPED OVER THE MID-ATLC REGION TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. THU
WILL BE MAINLY DRY...BUT WAVERING BETWEEN CLOUDY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY.
THESE SKY CONDITIONS WILL MODERATE TEMPS...AS THEY DID ON MON. EVEN
W/ A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDING OVERHEAD...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
REMAIN MOIST. A HANDFUL OF LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS
BUT BARELY ENOUGH TO WARRENT POPS ACROSS THESE AREAS. THE SKY COVER
WILL BE A FAIRLY SHALLOW LOW STRATUS DECK THAT WILL BEGIN TO MIX OUT
DURING THE LATE AFTN HRS - W/ SOME POKES OF SUN BEFORE EVE.

A MODERATED OVERNIGHT TEMP PROFILE THU NIGHT. EVEN THOUGH A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL BE FAST-APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/TENN
VLY...OUR AREA WILL BE WELL E OF THIS FEATURE OVERNIGHT AND HAVE
ANOTHER RELATIVELY WARM NIGHT SET-UP FOR THE REGION/.

SMALLER UPPER WAVES OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY WILL MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE CNTRL APLCNS AND BEGIN TO COMBINE OR AT LEAST INTERACT AS THEY
REACH THE MS VLY REGION. WHAT STARTED AS A MORE COMPACT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS ON THU WILL BE A MORE POTENT AND EXTENSIVE
SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM THE GULF COAST TO NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY FRI. THE MAIN RESULTANT VORT MAX WILL START TO DISSIPATE AS IT
CROSSES THE SRN APLCNS AND MOVES TOWARD THE VA TIDEWATER REGION.

SLIGHTLY LAGGING BEHIND BUT NOT LACKING ANY PUNCH WILL BE YET
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE - THIS ONE PACKING THE CANADIAN AIR - WILL SWING
IN FROM THE BEHIND LATER IN THE DAY. A WAVE OF PRE-FRONTAL RAINS
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EAST COAST...INCLUDING OUR REGION...BUT IT
DEPENDS ON THIS SECONDARY INCOMING CANADIAN AIRMASS. THE STRENGTH
AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE COMING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EAST
COAST SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE IF MUCH OF PRECIP DISSIPATES AND PULLS
UP NORTH OF US LATE FRI NIGHT. THE GFS IS LESS-SHARP W/ THE INCOMING
TROUGH AXIS THAN THE RUN AT THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. A COMPLEX COUPLE
OF UPPER VORT LOBES WILL BE SWINGING AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AS IT NEARS THE AREA. EACH ONE COULD INDIVIDUALLY HAVE AN
INFLUENCE...LIKE DIGGING THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH OR FORCING A BRIEF
AREA OF STRONG LIFT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...THE DYNAMICS
OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD LARGELY EXIT OFF TO THE NORTH INTO EARLY
SAT...LIMITING NOT ONLY THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL BUT RAIN POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE REGION. NOT MUCH QPF BEING PRINTED-OUT BY LONG TERM
GUIDANCE AS MODELS LARGELY BYPASS OUR AREA FOR RAINFALL. SEEMS
REASONABLE W/ WHERE THE DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE AND THE
RELATIVE MOVEMENT AWAY FROM THE AREA.

HIGHS ON FRI WILL LIKELY REACH THE M-U70S AND THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THRU OVERNIGHT...LOWS WILL STILL ONLY DROP INTO THE 50S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. THE MTNS WILL START TO SEE 40S OVERNIGHT W/ THE
COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR COMING IN...BUT THE FRONT WON`T ARRIVE QUICK
ENOUGH TO REALLY COOL OFF THE AREA - THAT WILL BE THE NEXT NIGHT.
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE APPROACHING ON SAT...SO CONDITIONS WILL BE
PLEASANT W/ HIGHS IN THE L70S AND A DRIER AIRMASS...BUT W/ THE
TROUGH AXIS SLIDING OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY - SWEEPING IN THE
COLDER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS...OVERNIGHT LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL DROP
BACK INTO THE U40S AND L50S. ANOTHER ONE-DAY REPRIEVE BEFORE ANOTHER
CLIPPER SHORTWAVE LACKING PRECIP WILL SWING DOWN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...REINFORCING THE COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. FOG WILL LIKELY BURN OFF FIRST BUT CLOUDS
WILL HOLD IN LONGER. WILL KEEP SUB VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY THEN RISING. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE GENERALLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS/STORMS
IMPACTING THE TERMINALS THUS WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION. ADDITIONAL
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS IN PLACE. PERIODIC LIFTING OF THE STRATUS DECK
HEIGHT POSSIBLE...ESPC DURING THE AFTN HRS EACH DAY UNTIL FRI.
SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL A FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE FRI NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT COOLER AND
DRIER CANADIAN AIRMASS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS BLO SCA VALUES TDA THRU WED.

AN UPPER LOW MOVING OFF THE NY/NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP AN ARM OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE REGION ON THU. ALTHOUGH
WE`LL BE DRY THAT DAY...SLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE FRI...BRINGING
NW WINDS BEHIND IT THAT WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...KRW
LONG TERM...GMS/KRW
AVIATION...GMS/KRW
MARINE...GMS/KRW








000
FXUS61 KLWX 301423 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1023 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ERIE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S. THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING BRINGING RAIN CHANCES TO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINED SOCKED IN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS
MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
EXTENDS SOUTH INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION PROVIDING A BIT OF A
CAD WEDGE OVER THE REGION. 12Z IAD SOUNDING ALSO SHOWING A STOUT
INVERSION AT 850MB WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW AT THE LOWEST LEVELS.
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD IN PLACE AT LEAST INTO MIDDAY...AWAITING
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A CUTOFF UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE IN AND MIX OUT THE
CLOUD COVER BUT A BIT LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. WILL LOWER DAYTIME MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR THESE
LOCATIONS. PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BURN
OFF.

WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...SOME PATCHY FOG REMAINS IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS BUT CLOUD COVER HAS FOR THE MOST PART ERODED OUT. ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE MID LEVELS
TODAY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING MAINLY WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. COOLING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO SOME STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WITH SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE BUT ANY SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

PATCHY FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE MAY DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT. LOWS
WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT 60S IN THE
METRO AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER CUTOFF LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OFF THE COAST DURING
WEDNESDAY. PATCHY MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION FROM THE WEST
BRINGING A BIT MORE SUNSHINE AND A RETURN TO TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LOW WED NIGHT...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
TRAPPED OVER THE MID-ATLC REGION TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. THU
WILL BE MAINLY DRY...BUT WAVERING BETWEEN CLOUDY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY.
THESE SKY CONDITIONS WILL MODERATE TEMPS...AS THEY DID ON MON. EVEN
W/ A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDING OVERHEAD...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
REMAIN MOIST. A HANDFUL OF LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS
BUT BARELY ENOUGH TO WARRENT POPS ACROSS THESE AREAS. THE SKY COVER
WILL BE A FAIRLY SHALLOW LOW STRATUS DECK THAT WILL BEGIN TO MIX OUT
DURING THE LATE AFTN HRS - W/ SOME POKES OF SUN BEFORE EVE.

A MODERATED OVERNIGHT TEMP PROFILE THU NIGHT. EVEN THOUGH A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL BE FAST-APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/TENN
VLY...OUR AREA WILL BE WELL E OF THIS FEATURE OVERNIGHT AND HAVE
ANOTHER RELATIVELY WARM NIGHT SET-UP FOR THE REGION/.

SMALLER UPPER WAVES OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY WILL MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE CNTRL APLCNS AND BEGIN TO COMBINE OR AT LEAST INTERACT AS THEY
REACH THE MS VLY REGION. WHAT STARTED AS A MORE COMPACT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS ON THU WILL BE A MORE POTENT AND EXTENSIVE
SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM THE GULF COAST TO NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY FRI. THE MAIN RESULTANT VORT MAX WILL START TO DISSIPATE AS IT
CROSSES THE SRN APLCNS AND MOVES TOWARD THE VA TIDEWATER REGION.

SLIGHTLY LAGGING BEHIND BUT NOT LACKING ANY PUNCH WILL BE YET
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE - THIS ONE PACKING THE CANADIAN AIR - WILL SWING
IN FROM THE BEHIND LATER IN THE DAY. A WAVE OF PRE-FRONTAL RAINS
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EAST COAST...INCLUDING OUR REGION...BUT IT
DEPENDS ON THIS SECONDARY INCOMING CANADIAN AIRMASS. THE STRENGTH
AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE COMING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EAST
COAST SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE IF MUCH OF PRECIP DISSIPATES AND PULLS
UP NORTH OF US LATE FRI NIGHT. THE GFS IS LESS-SHARP W/ THE INCOMING
TROUGH AXIS THAN THE RUN AT THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. A COMPLEX COUPLE
OF UPPER VORT LOBES WILL BE SWINGING AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AS IT NEARS THE AREA. EACH ONE COULD INDIVIDUALLY HAVE AN
INFLUENCE...LIKE DIGGING THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH OR FORCING A BRIEF
AREA OF STRONG LIFT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...THE DYNAMICS
OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD LARGELY EXIT OFF TO THE NORTH INTO EARLY
SAT...LIMITING NOT ONLY THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL BUT RAIN POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE REGION. NOT MUCH QPF BEING PRINTED-OUT BY LONG TERM
GUIDANCE AS MODELS LARGELY BYPASS OUR AREA FOR RAINFALL. SEEMS
REASONABLE W/ WHERE THE DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE AND THE
RELATIVE MOVEMENT AWAY FROM THE AREA.

HIGHS ON FRI WILL LIKELY REACH THE M-U70S AND THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THRU OVERNIGHT...LOWS WILL STILL ONLY DROP INTO THE 50S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. THE MTNS WILL START TO SEE 40S OVERNIGHT W/ THE
COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR COMING IN...BUT THE FRONT WON`T ARRIVE QUICK
ENOUGH TO REALLY COOL OFF THE AREA - THAT WILL BE THE NEXT NIGHT.
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE APPROACHING ON SAT...SO CONDITIONS WILL BE
PLEASANT W/ HIGHS IN THE L70S AND A DRIER AIRMASS...BUT W/ THE
TROUGH AXIS SLIDING OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY - SWEEPING IN THE
COLDER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS...OVERNIGHT LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL DROP
BACK INTO THE U40S AND L50S. ANOTHER ONE-DAY REPRIEVE BEFORE ANOTHER
CLIPPER SHORTWAVE LACKING PRECIP WILL SWING DOWN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...REINFORCING THE COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. FOG WILL LIKELY BURN OFF FIRST BUT CLOUDS
WILL HOLD IN LONGER. WILL KEEP SUB VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY THEN RISING. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE GENERALLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS/STORMS
IMPACTING THE TERMINALS THUS WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION. ADDITIONAL
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS IN PLACE. PERIODIC LIFTING OF THE STRATUS DECK
HEIGHT POSSIBLE...ESPC DURING THE AFTN HRS EACH DAY UNTIL FRI.
SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL A FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE FRI NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT COOLER AND
DRIER CANADIAN AIRMASS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS BLO SCA VALUES TDA THRU WED.

AN UPPER LOW MOVING OFF THE NY/NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP AN ARM OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE REGION ON THU. ALTHOUGH
WE`LL BE DRY THAT DAY...SLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE FRI...BRINGING
NW WINDS BEHIND IT THAT WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...KRW
LONG TERM...GMS/KRW
AVIATION...GMS/KRW
MARINE...GMS/KRW








000
FXUS61 KLWX 301423 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1023 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ERIE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S. THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING BRINGING RAIN CHANCES TO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINED SOCKED IN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS
MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
EXTENDS SOUTH INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION PROVIDING A BIT OF A
CAD WEDGE OVER THE REGION. 12Z IAD SOUNDING ALSO SHOWING A STOUT
INVERSION AT 850MB WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW AT THE LOWEST LEVELS.
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD IN PLACE AT LEAST INTO MIDDAY...AWAITING
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A CUTOFF UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE IN AND MIX OUT THE
CLOUD COVER BUT A BIT LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. WILL LOWER DAYTIME MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR THESE
LOCATIONS. PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BURN
OFF.

WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...SOME PATCHY FOG REMAINS IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS BUT CLOUD COVER HAS FOR THE MOST PART ERODED OUT. ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE MID LEVELS
TODAY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING MAINLY WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. COOLING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO SOME STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WITH SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE BUT ANY SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

PATCHY FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE MAY DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT. LOWS
WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT 60S IN THE
METRO AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER CUTOFF LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OFF THE COAST DURING
WEDNESDAY. PATCHY MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION FROM THE WEST
BRINGING A BIT MORE SUNSHINE AND A RETURN TO TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LOW WED NIGHT...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
TRAPPED OVER THE MID-ATLC REGION TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. THU
WILL BE MAINLY DRY...BUT WAVERING BETWEEN CLOUDY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY.
THESE SKY CONDITIONS WILL MODERATE TEMPS...AS THEY DID ON MON. EVEN
W/ A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDING OVERHEAD...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
REMAIN MOIST. A HANDFUL OF LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS
BUT BARELY ENOUGH TO WARRENT POPS ACROSS THESE AREAS. THE SKY COVER
WILL BE A FAIRLY SHALLOW LOW STRATUS DECK THAT WILL BEGIN TO MIX OUT
DURING THE LATE AFTN HRS - W/ SOME POKES OF SUN BEFORE EVE.

A MODERATED OVERNIGHT TEMP PROFILE THU NIGHT. EVEN THOUGH A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL BE FAST-APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/TENN
VLY...OUR AREA WILL BE WELL E OF THIS FEATURE OVERNIGHT AND HAVE
ANOTHER RELATIVELY WARM NIGHT SET-UP FOR THE REGION/.

SMALLER UPPER WAVES OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY WILL MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE CNTRL APLCNS AND BEGIN TO COMBINE OR AT LEAST INTERACT AS THEY
REACH THE MS VLY REGION. WHAT STARTED AS A MORE COMPACT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS ON THU WILL BE A MORE POTENT AND EXTENSIVE
SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM THE GULF COAST TO NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY FRI. THE MAIN RESULTANT VORT MAX WILL START TO DISSIPATE AS IT
CROSSES THE SRN APLCNS AND MOVES TOWARD THE VA TIDEWATER REGION.

SLIGHTLY LAGGING BEHIND BUT NOT LACKING ANY PUNCH WILL BE YET
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE - THIS ONE PACKING THE CANADIAN AIR - WILL SWING
IN FROM THE BEHIND LATER IN THE DAY. A WAVE OF PRE-FRONTAL RAINS
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EAST COAST...INCLUDING OUR REGION...BUT IT
DEPENDS ON THIS SECONDARY INCOMING CANADIAN AIRMASS. THE STRENGTH
AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE COMING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EAST
COAST SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE IF MUCH OF PRECIP DISSIPATES AND PULLS
UP NORTH OF US LATE FRI NIGHT. THE GFS IS LESS-SHARP W/ THE INCOMING
TROUGH AXIS THAN THE RUN AT THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. A COMPLEX COUPLE
OF UPPER VORT LOBES WILL BE SWINGING AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AS IT NEARS THE AREA. EACH ONE COULD INDIVIDUALLY HAVE AN
INFLUENCE...LIKE DIGGING THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH OR FORCING A BRIEF
AREA OF STRONG LIFT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...THE DYNAMICS
OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD LARGELY EXIT OFF TO THE NORTH INTO EARLY
SAT...LIMITING NOT ONLY THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL BUT RAIN POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE REGION. NOT MUCH QPF BEING PRINTED-OUT BY LONG TERM
GUIDANCE AS MODELS LARGELY BYPASS OUR AREA FOR RAINFALL. SEEMS
REASONABLE W/ WHERE THE DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE AND THE
RELATIVE MOVEMENT AWAY FROM THE AREA.

HIGHS ON FRI WILL LIKELY REACH THE M-U70S AND THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THRU OVERNIGHT...LOWS WILL STILL ONLY DROP INTO THE 50S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. THE MTNS WILL START TO SEE 40S OVERNIGHT W/ THE
COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR COMING IN...BUT THE FRONT WON`T ARRIVE QUICK
ENOUGH TO REALLY COOL OFF THE AREA - THAT WILL BE THE NEXT NIGHT.
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE APPROACHING ON SAT...SO CONDITIONS WILL BE
PLEASANT W/ HIGHS IN THE L70S AND A DRIER AIRMASS...BUT W/ THE
TROUGH AXIS SLIDING OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY - SWEEPING IN THE
COLDER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS...OVERNIGHT LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL DROP
BACK INTO THE U40S AND L50S. ANOTHER ONE-DAY REPRIEVE BEFORE ANOTHER
CLIPPER SHORTWAVE LACKING PRECIP WILL SWING DOWN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...REINFORCING THE COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. FOG WILL LIKELY BURN OFF FIRST BUT CLOUDS
WILL HOLD IN LONGER. WILL KEEP SUB VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY THEN RISING. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE GENERALLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS/STORMS
IMPACTING THE TERMINALS THUS WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION. ADDITIONAL
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS IN PLACE. PERIODIC LIFTING OF THE STRATUS DECK
HEIGHT POSSIBLE...ESPC DURING THE AFTN HRS EACH DAY UNTIL FRI.
SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL A FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE FRI NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT COOLER AND
DRIER CANADIAN AIRMASS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS BLO SCA VALUES TDA THRU WED.

AN UPPER LOW MOVING OFF THE NY/NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP AN ARM OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE REGION ON THU. ALTHOUGH
WE`LL BE DRY THAT DAY...SLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE FRI...BRINGING
NW WINDS BEHIND IT THAT WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...KRW
LONG TERM...GMS/KRW
AVIATION...GMS/KRW
MARINE...GMS/KRW








000
FXUS61 KPHI 301354
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
954 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WEAK FRONT WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FOR LATER
MONDAY AND INTO NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT MID MORNING, VISIBILITY ISSUES WERE CONTINUING TO IMPROVE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN PA, BUT THERE WERE STILL SOME LEFTOVER
PATCHES OF FOG, ESPECIALLY AROUND THE LEHIGH VALLEY. WE EXPECT
CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT THROUGH AND BEYOND 14Z. OTHERWISE, THE
REMAINING SPRINKLES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NJ CONTINUE TO
WANE AT MID MORNING AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES OFFSHORE. TODAY`S
MAXIMUM TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK, BUT WE DID ADJUST HOURLY TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS AND
OBSERVATIONS.

REST OF TODAY...BETWEEN SHORT WAVES IT SHOULD BE QUIET THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SOME SUNSHINE VSBY AT TIMES THROUGH THE
CLOUDS. AFTERNOON HEATING DEVELOPS SMALL SHOWERS NW OF I95 WHICH
PROBABLY HAVE A TENDENCY TO DRIFT WEST. IF THERE IS TO BE ANY
THUNDER THIS FAR EAST...IT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR WESTERN
EDGE OF OUR FCST AREA WESTERN BERKS INTO THE POCONOS. THE ECMWF
SUGGESTS TEMPS MAY RUN 1-2F WARMER THAN OUR FCST...ESP E MD.

OVERALL: TEMPS ABOUT 7F WARMER THAN NORMAL AND THE ENTIRE MONTH OF
SEPTEMBER SHOULD AVERAGE ABOUT 1.5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS.

FCST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/30 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...COOL POOL ALOFT SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH 500MB
TEMPS NEAR -15-16C. BANDS OF SHOWERS MAY BE OCCURRING WITH SUBTLE
LIFT FROM BOTH WEAK BUT DEEP ELY MOIST WINDS NORTH OF I78 AND THE
BACKDOOR COOL FRONT CONVERGENCE ZONE DRIVEN BY THE STRENGTHENING
NE FLOW NE OF THE BACKDOOR CF.

ADDITIONALLY FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE COOLER BL AIR NE OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

TEMPS ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL.

FCST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/30 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LAST OF THE UPPER LOW AND WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE EXITING THE
AREA WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME SCT SHOWERS...MOSTLY DURING THE FIRST
PART OF THE DAY. WE HAVE RETAINED THE CHC POPS FROM EARLIER. THE
POPS DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM W TO E. TEMPERATURES WED
NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...MOSTLY LOW/MID 70S.

WED NIGHT THRU FRI MORNING...MOSTLY DRY WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
DAYTIME PERIODS AND MOSTLY CLR OVERNIGHTS. TEMPERATURES
AGAIN...NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

FRI AFTERNOON THRU SATURDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER
CONSISTENT WITH A 6 HR OR SO WINDOW OF QPF CENTERED AROUND FRI
EVENING. WE HAVE UPPER THE POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE EVENING PERIOD
WITH THE EXTRA CONFID IN MULTIPLE/CONSISTENT TRENDS. PROBABILITIES
FOR THUNDER LOOK LOW AT THIS POINT SO WE WILL HOLD ON THAT...SOME
GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FROPA HOWEVER. TEMPS WILL DROP BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL SAT WITH DECENT COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED AFTER
FROPA.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...ANOTHER DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN, TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
SUNDAY...BUT BACK TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY. LOWS BOTH SAT AND SUN
NIGHTS WILL FEATURE LOW 40S NORTH RANGING TO THE LOW 50S OVER THE
DELMARVA AND METRO PHILADELPHIA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT WITH REGARDS TO CIGS/VSBYS FOR OUR WESTERN
TAF SITES KRDG/KABE IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING.

OTHERWISE FOR THE REST OF TODAY...SCT- BKN CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT FOR
ALL SITES WITH A POSSIBLE SHOWER VCNTY KRDG/KABE LATE IN THE DAY.
LIGHT SOUTH WIND TURNING E, REMAINING UNDER 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...WIND BECOMING NE AT 5-15 KT AND A DECK OF IFR ST/FOG SHOULD
DEVELOP SOUTHWESTWARD FROM LONG ISLAND BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY MOVING SW FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
N OF KPHL.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SCT SHOWERS WITH SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. E/NE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...MORNING FOG WITH LOCAL LOWER CIGS/VSBYS...THEN MOSTLY
VFR. N WIND GUST 15 KT...BECOMING NE LATE.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY...A FEW MORNING SHOWERS EAST...THEN VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES ATTM.

TODAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS AOB 3 FT TODAY WITH THE S-SW WIND
TURNING TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST.

TONIGHT...NE WINDS INCREASING WITH GUSTS TO 22 KT LATE AND SEAS
BUILDING TO NEAR 4 FT BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FT
THROUGH 8AM WEDNESDAY AS I BELIEVE THE GFS WW3 GUIDANCE IS TOO
SOON TOO HIGH.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THRU WED NIGHT: NE FLOW WITH BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS AND SCA
CRITERIA EXPECTED ALONG THE NNJ COAST AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD
TO THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS ABOVE 22 KT WITH ANY SCA
HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY. HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING ANY FORMAL
HEADLINES ON THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS CONDITIONS WILL JUST MEET
LOWER END SCA CRITERIA AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF A CONTINUING SCA FLAG SEAS ON THE
ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.
CONDITIONS MAY DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA LATE.

FRIDAY...SOUTH WINDS INCREASING AND BUILDING SEAS. SCA CONDITIONS
A GOOD BET BY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS LATE.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS EARLY WITH SCT SHOWERS...THEN WINDS AND SEAS
DIMINISHING LATE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/KLINE
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/KLINE/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 301354
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
954 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WEAK FRONT WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FOR LATER
MONDAY AND INTO NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT MID MORNING, VISIBILITY ISSUES WERE CONTINUING TO IMPROVE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN PA, BUT THERE WERE STILL SOME LEFTOVER
PATCHES OF FOG, ESPECIALLY AROUND THE LEHIGH VALLEY. WE EXPECT
CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT THROUGH AND BEYOND 14Z. OTHERWISE, THE
REMAINING SPRINKLES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NJ CONTINUE TO
WANE AT MID MORNING AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES OFFSHORE. TODAY`S
MAXIMUM TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK, BUT WE DID ADJUST HOURLY TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS AND
OBSERVATIONS.

REST OF TODAY...BETWEEN SHORT WAVES IT SHOULD BE QUIET THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SOME SUNSHINE VSBY AT TIMES THROUGH THE
CLOUDS. AFTERNOON HEATING DEVELOPS SMALL SHOWERS NW OF I95 WHICH
PROBABLY HAVE A TENDENCY TO DRIFT WEST. IF THERE IS TO BE ANY
THUNDER THIS FAR EAST...IT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR WESTERN
EDGE OF OUR FCST AREA WESTERN BERKS INTO THE POCONOS. THE ECMWF
SUGGESTS TEMPS MAY RUN 1-2F WARMER THAN OUR FCST...ESP E MD.

OVERALL: TEMPS ABOUT 7F WARMER THAN NORMAL AND THE ENTIRE MONTH OF
SEPTEMBER SHOULD AVERAGE ABOUT 1.5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS.

FCST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/30 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...COOL POOL ALOFT SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH 500MB
TEMPS NEAR -15-16C. BANDS OF SHOWERS MAY BE OCCURRING WITH SUBTLE
LIFT FROM BOTH WEAK BUT DEEP ELY MOIST WINDS NORTH OF I78 AND THE
BACKDOOR COOL FRONT CONVERGENCE ZONE DRIVEN BY THE STRENGTHENING
NE FLOW NE OF THE BACKDOOR CF.

ADDITIONALLY FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE COOLER BL AIR NE OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

TEMPS ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL.

FCST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/30 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LAST OF THE UPPER LOW AND WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE EXITING THE
AREA WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME SCT SHOWERS...MOSTLY DURING THE FIRST
PART OF THE DAY. WE HAVE RETAINED THE CHC POPS FROM EARLIER. THE
POPS DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM W TO E. TEMPERATURES WED
NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...MOSTLY LOW/MID 70S.

WED NIGHT THRU FRI MORNING...MOSTLY DRY WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
DAYTIME PERIODS AND MOSTLY CLR OVERNIGHTS. TEMPERATURES
AGAIN...NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

FRI AFTERNOON THRU SATURDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER
CONSISTENT WITH A 6 HR OR SO WINDOW OF QPF CENTERED AROUND FRI
EVENING. WE HAVE UPPER THE POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE EVENING PERIOD
WITH THE EXTRA CONFID IN MULTIPLE/CONSISTENT TRENDS. PROBABILITIES
FOR THUNDER LOOK LOW AT THIS POINT SO WE WILL HOLD ON THAT...SOME
GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FROPA HOWEVER. TEMPS WILL DROP BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL SAT WITH DECENT COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED AFTER
FROPA.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...ANOTHER DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN, TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
SUNDAY...BUT BACK TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY. LOWS BOTH SAT AND SUN
NIGHTS WILL FEATURE LOW 40S NORTH RANGING TO THE LOW 50S OVER THE
DELMARVA AND METRO PHILADELPHIA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT WITH REGARDS TO CIGS/VSBYS FOR OUR WESTERN
TAF SITES KRDG/KABE IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING.

OTHERWISE FOR THE REST OF TODAY...SCT- BKN CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT FOR
ALL SITES WITH A POSSIBLE SHOWER VCNTY KRDG/KABE LATE IN THE DAY.
LIGHT SOUTH WIND TURNING E, REMAINING UNDER 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...WIND BECOMING NE AT 5-15 KT AND A DECK OF IFR ST/FOG SHOULD
DEVELOP SOUTHWESTWARD FROM LONG ISLAND BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY MOVING SW FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
N OF KPHL.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SCT SHOWERS WITH SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. E/NE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...MORNING FOG WITH LOCAL LOWER CIGS/VSBYS...THEN MOSTLY
VFR. N WIND GUST 15 KT...BECOMING NE LATE.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY...A FEW MORNING SHOWERS EAST...THEN VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES ATTM.

TODAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS AOB 3 FT TODAY WITH THE S-SW WIND
TURNING TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST.

TONIGHT...NE WINDS INCREASING WITH GUSTS TO 22 KT LATE AND SEAS
BUILDING TO NEAR 4 FT BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FT
THROUGH 8AM WEDNESDAY AS I BELIEVE THE GFS WW3 GUIDANCE IS TOO
SOON TOO HIGH.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THRU WED NIGHT: NE FLOW WITH BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS AND SCA
CRITERIA EXPECTED ALONG THE NNJ COAST AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD
TO THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS ABOVE 22 KT WITH ANY SCA
HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY. HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING ANY FORMAL
HEADLINES ON THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS CONDITIONS WILL JUST MEET
LOWER END SCA CRITERIA AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF A CONTINUING SCA FLAG SEAS ON THE
ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.
CONDITIONS MAY DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA LATE.

FRIDAY...SOUTH WINDS INCREASING AND BUILDING SEAS. SCA CONDITIONS
A GOOD BET BY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS LATE.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS EARLY WITH SCT SHOWERS...THEN WINDS AND SEAS
DIMINISHING LATE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/KLINE
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/KLINE/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 301354
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
954 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WEAK FRONT WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FOR LATER
MONDAY AND INTO NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT MID MORNING, VISIBILITY ISSUES WERE CONTINUING TO IMPROVE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN PA, BUT THERE WERE STILL SOME LEFTOVER
PATCHES OF FOG, ESPECIALLY AROUND THE LEHIGH VALLEY. WE EXPECT
CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT THROUGH AND BEYOND 14Z. OTHERWISE, THE
REMAINING SPRINKLES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NJ CONTINUE TO
WANE AT MID MORNING AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES OFFSHORE. TODAY`S
MAXIMUM TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK, BUT WE DID ADJUST HOURLY TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS AND
OBSERVATIONS.

REST OF TODAY...BETWEEN SHORT WAVES IT SHOULD BE QUIET THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SOME SUNSHINE VSBY AT TIMES THROUGH THE
CLOUDS. AFTERNOON HEATING DEVELOPS SMALL SHOWERS NW OF I95 WHICH
PROBABLY HAVE A TENDENCY TO DRIFT WEST. IF THERE IS TO BE ANY
THUNDER THIS FAR EAST...IT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR WESTERN
EDGE OF OUR FCST AREA WESTERN BERKS INTO THE POCONOS. THE ECMWF
SUGGESTS TEMPS MAY RUN 1-2F WARMER THAN OUR FCST...ESP E MD.

OVERALL: TEMPS ABOUT 7F WARMER THAN NORMAL AND THE ENTIRE MONTH OF
SEPTEMBER SHOULD AVERAGE ABOUT 1.5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS.

FCST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/30 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...COOL POOL ALOFT SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH 500MB
TEMPS NEAR -15-16C. BANDS OF SHOWERS MAY BE OCCURRING WITH SUBTLE
LIFT FROM BOTH WEAK BUT DEEP ELY MOIST WINDS NORTH OF I78 AND THE
BACKDOOR COOL FRONT CONVERGENCE ZONE DRIVEN BY THE STRENGTHENING
NE FLOW NE OF THE BACKDOOR CF.

ADDITIONALLY FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE COOLER BL AIR NE OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

TEMPS ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL.

FCST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/30 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LAST OF THE UPPER LOW AND WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE EXITING THE
AREA WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME SCT SHOWERS...MOSTLY DURING THE FIRST
PART OF THE DAY. WE HAVE RETAINED THE CHC POPS FROM EARLIER. THE
POPS DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM W TO E. TEMPERATURES WED
NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...MOSTLY LOW/MID 70S.

WED NIGHT THRU FRI MORNING...MOSTLY DRY WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
DAYTIME PERIODS AND MOSTLY CLR OVERNIGHTS. TEMPERATURES
AGAIN...NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

FRI AFTERNOON THRU SATURDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER
CONSISTENT WITH A 6 HR OR SO WINDOW OF QPF CENTERED AROUND FRI
EVENING. WE HAVE UPPER THE POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE EVENING PERIOD
WITH THE EXTRA CONFID IN MULTIPLE/CONSISTENT TRENDS. PROBABILITIES
FOR THUNDER LOOK LOW AT THIS POINT SO WE WILL HOLD ON THAT...SOME
GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FROPA HOWEVER. TEMPS WILL DROP BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL SAT WITH DECENT COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED AFTER
FROPA.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...ANOTHER DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN, TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
SUNDAY...BUT BACK TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY. LOWS BOTH SAT AND SUN
NIGHTS WILL FEATURE LOW 40S NORTH RANGING TO THE LOW 50S OVER THE
DELMARVA AND METRO PHILADELPHIA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT WITH REGARDS TO CIGS/VSBYS FOR OUR WESTERN
TAF SITES KRDG/KABE IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING.

OTHERWISE FOR THE REST OF TODAY...SCT- BKN CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT FOR
ALL SITES WITH A POSSIBLE SHOWER VCNTY KRDG/KABE LATE IN THE DAY.
LIGHT SOUTH WIND TURNING E, REMAINING UNDER 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...WIND BECOMING NE AT 5-15 KT AND A DECK OF IFR ST/FOG SHOULD
DEVELOP SOUTHWESTWARD FROM LONG ISLAND BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY MOVING SW FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
N OF KPHL.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SCT SHOWERS WITH SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. E/NE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...MORNING FOG WITH LOCAL LOWER CIGS/VSBYS...THEN MOSTLY
VFR. N WIND GUST 15 KT...BECOMING NE LATE.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY...A FEW MORNING SHOWERS EAST...THEN VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES ATTM.

TODAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS AOB 3 FT TODAY WITH THE S-SW WIND
TURNING TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST.

TONIGHT...NE WINDS INCREASING WITH GUSTS TO 22 KT LATE AND SEAS
BUILDING TO NEAR 4 FT BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FT
THROUGH 8AM WEDNESDAY AS I BELIEVE THE GFS WW3 GUIDANCE IS TOO
SOON TOO HIGH.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THRU WED NIGHT: NE FLOW WITH BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS AND SCA
CRITERIA EXPECTED ALONG THE NNJ COAST AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD
TO THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS ABOVE 22 KT WITH ANY SCA
HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY. HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING ANY FORMAL
HEADLINES ON THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS CONDITIONS WILL JUST MEET
LOWER END SCA CRITERIA AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF A CONTINUING SCA FLAG SEAS ON THE
ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.
CONDITIONS MAY DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA LATE.

FRIDAY...SOUTH WINDS INCREASING AND BUILDING SEAS. SCA CONDITIONS
A GOOD BET BY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS LATE.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS EARLY WITH SCT SHOWERS...THEN WINDS AND SEAS
DIMINISHING LATE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/KLINE
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/KLINE/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 301354
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
954 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WEAK FRONT WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FOR LATER
MONDAY AND INTO NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT MID MORNING, VISIBILITY ISSUES WERE CONTINUING TO IMPROVE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN PA, BUT THERE WERE STILL SOME LEFTOVER
PATCHES OF FOG, ESPECIALLY AROUND THE LEHIGH VALLEY. WE EXPECT
CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT THROUGH AND BEYOND 14Z. OTHERWISE, THE
REMAINING SPRINKLES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NJ CONTINUE TO
WANE AT MID MORNING AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES OFFSHORE. TODAY`S
MAXIMUM TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK, BUT WE DID ADJUST HOURLY TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS AND
OBSERVATIONS.

REST OF TODAY...BETWEEN SHORT WAVES IT SHOULD BE QUIET THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SOME SUNSHINE VSBY AT TIMES THROUGH THE
CLOUDS. AFTERNOON HEATING DEVELOPS SMALL SHOWERS NW OF I95 WHICH
PROBABLY HAVE A TENDENCY TO DRIFT WEST. IF THERE IS TO BE ANY
THUNDER THIS FAR EAST...IT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR WESTERN
EDGE OF OUR FCST AREA WESTERN BERKS INTO THE POCONOS. THE ECMWF
SUGGESTS TEMPS MAY RUN 1-2F WARMER THAN OUR FCST...ESP E MD.

OVERALL: TEMPS ABOUT 7F WARMER THAN NORMAL AND THE ENTIRE MONTH OF
SEPTEMBER SHOULD AVERAGE ABOUT 1.5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS.

FCST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/30 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...COOL POOL ALOFT SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH 500MB
TEMPS NEAR -15-16C. BANDS OF SHOWERS MAY BE OCCURRING WITH SUBTLE
LIFT FROM BOTH WEAK BUT DEEP ELY MOIST WINDS NORTH OF I78 AND THE
BACKDOOR COOL FRONT CONVERGENCE ZONE DRIVEN BY THE STRENGTHENING
NE FLOW NE OF THE BACKDOOR CF.

ADDITIONALLY FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE COOLER BL AIR NE OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

TEMPS ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL.

FCST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/30 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LAST OF THE UPPER LOW AND WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE EXITING THE
AREA WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME SCT SHOWERS...MOSTLY DURING THE FIRST
PART OF THE DAY. WE HAVE RETAINED THE CHC POPS FROM EARLIER. THE
POPS DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM W TO E. TEMPERATURES WED
NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...MOSTLY LOW/MID 70S.

WED NIGHT THRU FRI MORNING...MOSTLY DRY WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
DAYTIME PERIODS AND MOSTLY CLR OVERNIGHTS. TEMPERATURES
AGAIN...NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

FRI AFTERNOON THRU SATURDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER
CONSISTENT WITH A 6 HR OR SO WINDOW OF QPF CENTERED AROUND FRI
EVENING. WE HAVE UPPER THE POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE EVENING PERIOD
WITH THE EXTRA CONFID IN MULTIPLE/CONSISTENT TRENDS. PROBABILITIES
FOR THUNDER LOOK LOW AT THIS POINT SO WE WILL HOLD ON THAT...SOME
GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FROPA HOWEVER. TEMPS WILL DROP BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL SAT WITH DECENT COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED AFTER
FROPA.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...ANOTHER DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN, TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
SUNDAY...BUT BACK TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY. LOWS BOTH SAT AND SUN
NIGHTS WILL FEATURE LOW 40S NORTH RANGING TO THE LOW 50S OVER THE
DELMARVA AND METRO PHILADELPHIA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT WITH REGARDS TO CIGS/VSBYS FOR OUR WESTERN
TAF SITES KRDG/KABE IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING.

OTHERWISE FOR THE REST OF TODAY...SCT- BKN CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT FOR
ALL SITES WITH A POSSIBLE SHOWER VCNTY KRDG/KABE LATE IN THE DAY.
LIGHT SOUTH WIND TURNING E, REMAINING UNDER 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...WIND BECOMING NE AT 5-15 KT AND A DECK OF IFR ST/FOG SHOULD
DEVELOP SOUTHWESTWARD FROM LONG ISLAND BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY MOVING SW FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
N OF KPHL.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SCT SHOWERS WITH SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. E/NE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...MORNING FOG WITH LOCAL LOWER CIGS/VSBYS...THEN MOSTLY
VFR. N WIND GUST 15 KT...BECOMING NE LATE.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY...A FEW MORNING SHOWERS EAST...THEN VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES ATTM.

TODAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS AOB 3 FT TODAY WITH THE S-SW WIND
TURNING TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST.

TONIGHT...NE WINDS INCREASING WITH GUSTS TO 22 KT LATE AND SEAS
BUILDING TO NEAR 4 FT BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FT
THROUGH 8AM WEDNESDAY AS I BELIEVE THE GFS WW3 GUIDANCE IS TOO
SOON TOO HIGH.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THRU WED NIGHT: NE FLOW WITH BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS AND SCA
CRITERIA EXPECTED ALONG THE NNJ COAST AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD
TO THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS ABOVE 22 KT WITH ANY SCA
HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY. HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING ANY FORMAL
HEADLINES ON THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS CONDITIONS WILL JUST MEET
LOWER END SCA CRITERIA AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF A CONTINUING SCA FLAG SEAS ON THE
ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.
CONDITIONS MAY DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA LATE.

FRIDAY...SOUTH WINDS INCREASING AND BUILDING SEAS. SCA CONDITIONS
A GOOD BET BY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS LATE.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS EARLY WITH SCT SHOWERS...THEN WINDS AND SEAS
DIMINISHING LATE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/KLINE
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/KLINE/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301345
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
945 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH 945AM UPDATE...HAVE CONTINUED TO EXPAND COVERAGE OF LIKELY
AND CATEGORICAL POPS. REGARDLESS OF WHAT THE HRRR AND RAP ARE
CURRENTLY DEPICTING...LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES TO HOLD TOGETHER. HOWEVER...12Z PIT SOUNDING SHOWS A LOT
OF DRY AIR...WHICH IS LIKELY THE REASON THAT MODELS SHOW A
WEAKENING TREND IN SHOWERS LATER TODAY AS THE AIR MASS MOVES
FARTHER EAST. IN ADDITION...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
EXPANDED ITS AREA FOR A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT...AND HAVE LIKEWISE
EXPANDED THE AREA IN THE FORECAST THAT MENTIONS A SMALL HAIL
THREAT. 4AM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

WEAK BOUNDARY WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE AREA TODAY. STILL HAVING A TOUGH TIME GETTING A HANDLE ON HOW
MUCH PRECIPITATION THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BE WITH THE MAIN 50H LOW WHICH WILL TRAIL BEHIND THE
FRONT AND MOVE INTO NE OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE NEVER REALLY GETS LINED UP AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE 50H LOW...BUT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGS BACK WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A DRY LAYER UP
TO AROUND 5000 FT THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY...MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR
SHOWERS TO REACH THE GROUND. WILL LEAVE IN CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. IF THE LOW LEVELS ARE ABLE TO
SATURATE TODAY THEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...COLD POOL ALOFT...WITH PASSING 50H...LOW MAY
PROVIDE ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT AN ISOLATED STORM COULD
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WEAKENS THIS EVENING. THE 50H LOW OPENS UP AND
WHATS LEFT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DRIFTS INTO EASTERN PA.

UPPER LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY WILL SWING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
EXITING 50H LOW SO WILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN
THE FAR EAST FOR A PORTION OF THE EVENING HOURS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW ON THURSDAY...
PROVIDING SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL SEEING SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY. LATEST NAM IS SLOWING EVERYTHING DOWN...GFS IS THE MOST
PROGRESSIVE AND THE 12Z ECMWF IS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. FRIDAY DOES
APPEAR LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED WIDESPREAD RAIN.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT FROM THE QUIET WE HAVE EXPERIENCED
OVER THE LAST TWO OR SO WEEKS...TO A MORE ACTIVE AND COOLER
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOSED LOW ALOFT WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST TOWARD LAKE ERIE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW. BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS
OHIO THIS MORNING CLOSER TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. MODELS SHOWING
RATHER WIDESPREAD COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT
WHOLLY CONVINCED OF THIS BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS WITH AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. VCSH REMAINS MOST PORTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE MAINLY AT KFKL AND KDUJ.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301345
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
945 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH 945AM UPDATE...HAVE CONTINUED TO EXPAND COVERAGE OF LIKELY
AND CATEGORICAL POPS. REGARDLESS OF WHAT THE HRRR AND RAP ARE
CURRENTLY DEPICTING...LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES TO HOLD TOGETHER. HOWEVER...12Z PIT SOUNDING SHOWS A LOT
OF DRY AIR...WHICH IS LIKELY THE REASON THAT MODELS SHOW A
WEAKENING TREND IN SHOWERS LATER TODAY AS THE AIR MASS MOVES
FARTHER EAST. IN ADDITION...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
EXPANDED ITS AREA FOR A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT...AND HAVE LIKEWISE
EXPANDED THE AREA IN THE FORECAST THAT MENTIONS A SMALL HAIL
THREAT. 4AM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

WEAK BOUNDARY WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE AREA TODAY. STILL HAVING A TOUGH TIME GETTING A HANDLE ON HOW
MUCH PRECIPITATION THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BE WITH THE MAIN 50H LOW WHICH WILL TRAIL BEHIND THE
FRONT AND MOVE INTO NE OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE NEVER REALLY GETS LINED UP AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE 50H LOW...BUT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGS BACK WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A DRY LAYER UP
TO AROUND 5000 FT THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY...MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR
SHOWERS TO REACH THE GROUND. WILL LEAVE IN CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. IF THE LOW LEVELS ARE ABLE TO
SATURATE TODAY THEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...COLD POOL ALOFT...WITH PASSING 50H...LOW MAY
PROVIDE ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT AN ISOLATED STORM COULD
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WEAKENS THIS EVENING. THE 50H LOW OPENS UP AND
WHATS LEFT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DRIFTS INTO EASTERN PA.

UPPER LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY WILL SWING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
EXITING 50H LOW SO WILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN
THE FAR EAST FOR A PORTION OF THE EVENING HOURS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW ON THURSDAY...
PROVIDING SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL SEEING SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY. LATEST NAM IS SLOWING EVERYTHING DOWN...GFS IS THE MOST
PROGRESSIVE AND THE 12Z ECMWF IS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. FRIDAY DOES
APPEAR LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED WIDESPREAD RAIN.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT FROM THE QUIET WE HAVE EXPERIENCED
OVER THE LAST TWO OR SO WEEKS...TO A MORE ACTIVE AND COOLER
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOSED LOW ALOFT WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST TOWARD LAKE ERIE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW. BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS
OHIO THIS MORNING CLOSER TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. MODELS SHOWING
RATHER WIDESPREAD COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT
WHOLLY CONVINCED OF THIS BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS WITH AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. VCSH REMAINS MOST PORTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE MAINLY AT KFKL AND KDUJ.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301155
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
755 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH 8AM UPDATE...HAVE ADDED SOME LIKELY POPS IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. HRRR AND RAP MODELS SHOW THE LINE OF
SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN OHIO AS BEING MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE BY THE
AFTERNOON...BUT STILL THINK THE LINE WILL MANAGE TO HOLD TOGETHER
AT LEAST INTO MERCER COUNTY. ALSO ADDED THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST
SLIGHTLY EARLIER WITH SOME ISOLATED STRIKES ALREADY OCCURRING IN
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

WEAK BOUNDARY WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE AREA TODAY. STILL HAVING A TOUGH TIME GETTING A HANDLE ON HOW
MUCH PRECIPITATION THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BE WITH THE MAIN 50H LOW WHICH WILL TRAIL BEHIND THE
FRONT AND MOVE INTO NE OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE NEVER REALLY GETS LINED UP AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE 50H LOW...BUT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGS BACK WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A DRY LAYER UP
TO AROUND 5000 FT THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY...MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR
SHOWERS TO REACH THE GROUND. WILL LEAVE IN CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. IF THE LOW LEVELS ARE ABLE TO
SATURATE TODAY THEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...COLD POOL ALOFT...WITH PASSING 50H...LOW MAY
PROVIDE ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT AN ISOLATED STORM COULD
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WEAKENS THIS EVENING. THE 50H LOW OPENS UP AND
WHATS LEFT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DRIFTS INTO EASTERN PA.

UPPER LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY WILL SWING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
EXITING 50H LOW SO WILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN
THE FAR EAST FOR A PORTION OF THE EVENING HOURS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW ON THURSDAY...
PROVIDING SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL SEEING SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY. LATEST NAM IS SLOWING EVERYTHING DOWN...GFS IS THE MOST
PROGRESSIVE AND THE 12Z ECMWF IS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. FRIDAY DOES
APPEAR LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED WIDESPREAD RAIN.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT FROM THE QUIET WE HAVE EXPERIENCED
OVER THE LAST TWO OR SO WEEKS...TO A MORE ACTIVE AND COOLER
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR FOG ALREADY HAS DEVELOPED IN THE USUAL VALLEY LOW LYING AREAS
AND IS INCLUDED IN TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH PATCHY MVFR
ELSEWHERE. CLOSED LOW ALOFT WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST TOWARD LAKE ERIE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW. BAND OF SHOWERS
ACROSS MICHIGAN THIS MORNING CLOSER TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. MODELS
SHOWING RATHER WIDESPREAD COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
NOT WHOLLY CONVINCED OF THIS BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS WITH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. VCSH REMAINS MOST PORTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY AT KFKL AND KDUJ.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301155
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
755 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH 8AM UPDATE...HAVE ADDED SOME LIKELY POPS IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. HRRR AND RAP MODELS SHOW THE LINE OF
SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN OHIO AS BEING MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE BY THE
AFTERNOON...BUT STILL THINK THE LINE WILL MANAGE TO HOLD TOGETHER
AT LEAST INTO MERCER COUNTY. ALSO ADDED THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST
SLIGHTLY EARLIER WITH SOME ISOLATED STRIKES ALREADY OCCURRING IN
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

WEAK BOUNDARY WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE AREA TODAY. STILL HAVING A TOUGH TIME GETTING A HANDLE ON HOW
MUCH PRECIPITATION THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BE WITH THE MAIN 50H LOW WHICH WILL TRAIL BEHIND THE
FRONT AND MOVE INTO NE OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE NEVER REALLY GETS LINED UP AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE 50H LOW...BUT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGS BACK WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A DRY LAYER UP
TO AROUND 5000 FT THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY...MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR
SHOWERS TO REACH THE GROUND. WILL LEAVE IN CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. IF THE LOW LEVELS ARE ABLE TO
SATURATE TODAY THEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...COLD POOL ALOFT...WITH PASSING 50H...LOW MAY
PROVIDE ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT AN ISOLATED STORM COULD
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WEAKENS THIS EVENING. THE 50H LOW OPENS UP AND
WHATS LEFT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DRIFTS INTO EASTERN PA.

UPPER LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY WILL SWING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
EXITING 50H LOW SO WILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN
THE FAR EAST FOR A PORTION OF THE EVENING HOURS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW ON THURSDAY...
PROVIDING SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL SEEING SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY. LATEST NAM IS SLOWING EVERYTHING DOWN...GFS IS THE MOST
PROGRESSIVE AND THE 12Z ECMWF IS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. FRIDAY DOES
APPEAR LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED WIDESPREAD RAIN.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT FROM THE QUIET WE HAVE EXPERIENCED
OVER THE LAST TWO OR SO WEEKS...TO A MORE ACTIVE AND COOLER
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR FOG ALREADY HAS DEVELOPED IN THE USUAL VALLEY LOW LYING AREAS
AND IS INCLUDED IN TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH PATCHY MVFR
ELSEWHERE. CLOSED LOW ALOFT WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST TOWARD LAKE ERIE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW. BAND OF SHOWERS
ACROSS MICHIGAN THIS MORNING CLOSER TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. MODELS
SHOWING RATHER WIDESPREAD COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
NOT WHOLLY CONVINCED OF THIS BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS WITH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. VCSH REMAINS MOST PORTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY AT KFKL AND KDUJ.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 300959
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
559 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WEAK FRONT WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FOR LATER
MONDAY AND INTO NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 8 AM...LIGHT SHOWERS NOW APPEAR TO BE CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF
NE MD...DE AND FAR SW NJ AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
PRODUCES MID LEVEL SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS. THE 545 AM UPDATE
ATTEMPTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SHORT PERIOD LEFTOVERS.

OTHERWISE...THICK FOG ALONG MD`S E SHORE AND PORTIONS OF E PA W AND NW
OF PHL AS WELL AS FAR NW NJ WILL BEGIN THINNING AROUND 730 OR 8 AM.
AN SPS HIGHLIGHTS THAT DIFFICULTY.

TODAY...BETWEEN SHORT WAVES IT SHOULD BE QUIET THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH SOME SUNSHINE VSBY AT TIMES THROUGH THE CLOUDS. AFTERNOON HEATING
DEVELOPS SMALL SHOWERS NW OF I95 WHICH PROBABLY HAVE A TENDENCY TO
DRIFT WEST. IF THERE IS TO BE ANY THUNDER THIS FAR EAST...IT SHOULD
BE CONFINED TO THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF OUR FCST AREA WESTERN BERKS
INTO THE POCONOS. THE ECMWF SUGGESTS TEMPS MAY RUN 1-2F WARMER
THAN OUR FCST...ESP E MD.

OVERALL: TEMPS ABOUT 7F WARMER THAN NORMAL AND THE ENTIRE MONTH OF
SEPTEMBER SHOULD AVERAGE ABOUT 1.5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS.

FCST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/30 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...COOL POOL ALOFT SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH 500MB
TEMPS NEAR -15-16C. BANDS OF SHOWERS MAY BE OCCURRING WITH SUBTLE
LIFT FROM BOTH WEAK BUT DEEP ELY MOIST WINDS NORTH OF I78 AND THE
BACKDOOR COOL FRONT CONVERGENCE ZONE DRIVEN BY THE STRENGTHENING
NE FLOW NE OF THE BACKDOOR CF.

ADDITIONALLY FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE COOLER BL AIR NE OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

TEMPS ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL.

FCST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/30 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LAST OF THE UPPER LOW AND WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE EXITING THE
AREA WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME SCT SHOWERS...MOSTLY DURING THE FIRST
PART OF THE DAY. WE HAVE RETAINED THE CHC POPS FROM EARLIER. THE
POPS DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM W TO E. TEMPERATURES WED
NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...MOSTLY LOW/MID 70S.

WED NIGHT THRU FRI MORNING...MOSTLY DRY WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
DAYTIME PERIODS AND MOSTLY CLR OVERNIGHTS. TEMPERATURES
AGAIN...NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

FRI AFTERNOON THRU SATURDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER
CONSISTENT WITH A 6 HR OR SO WINDOW OF QPF CENTERED AROUND FRI
EVENING. WE HAVE UPPER THE POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE EVENING PERIOD
WITH THE EXTRA CONFID IN MULTIPLE/CONSISTENT TRENDS. PROBABILITIES
FOR THUNDER LOOK LOW AT THIS POINT SO WE WILL HOLD ON THAT...SOME
GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FROPA HOWEVER. TEMPS WILL DROP BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL SAT WITH DECENT COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED AFTER
FROPA.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...ANOTHER DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN, TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
SUNDAY...BUT BACK TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY. LOWS BOTH SAT AND SUN
NIGHTS WILL FEATURE LOW 40S NORTH RANGING TO THE LOW 50S OVER THE
DELMARVA AND METRO PHILADELPHIA.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM MID LEVEL DECK OF CIGS
AOA 10000 FT VCNTY N DE AND NE MD AT 10Z SHOULD FINALLY WEAKEN AND
DRY OUT AROUND 12-13Z AS THE UPPER LEVEL CORE OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE DRIFTS EASTWARD ONTO THE COAST. LIGHT SOUTH WIND WITH HIGHER THAN
MODELED DEWPOINTS SHOULD FACILITATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF 3 MI FOG
PATCHES AND EVEN BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS IN ST/FOG MAINLY VCNTY
KRDG/KABE.


AFTER 12Z...AFTER ANY LEFTOVER IFR ST/FOG BURNS OFF BY 14Z...OTHERWISE
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT WITH A POSSIBLE SHOWER VCNTY KRDG/KABE
LATE IN THE DAY. LIGHT SOUTH WIND TURNING E.

TONIGHT...WIND BECOMING NE AT 5-15 KT AND A DECK OF IFR ST/FOG SHOULD
DEVELOP SOUTHWESTWARD FROM LONG ISLAND BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY MOVING SW FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
N OF KPHL.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SCT SHOWERS WITH SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. E/NE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...MORNING FOG WITH LOCAL LOWER CIGS/VSBYS...THEN MOSTLY
VFR. N WIND GUST 15 KT...BECOMING NE LATE.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY...A FEW MORNING SHOWERS EAST...THEN VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES ATTM.

TODAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS AOB 3 FT TODAY WITH THE S-SW WIND
TURNING TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST.

TONIGHT...NE WINDS INCREASING WITH GUSTS TO 22 KT LATE AND SEAS
BUILDING TO NEAR 4 FT BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FT
THROUGH 8AM WEDNESDAY AS I BELIEVE THE GFS WW3 GUIDANCE IS TOO
SOON TOO HIGH.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THRU WED NIGHT: NE FLOW WITH BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS AND SCA
CRITERIA EXPECTED ALONG THE NNJ COAST AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD
TO THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS ABOVE 22 KT WITH ANY SCA
HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY. HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING ANY FORMAL
HEADLINES ON THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS CONDITIONS WILL JUST MEET
LOWER END SCA CRITERIA AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF A CONTINUING SCA FLAG SEAS ON THE
ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.
CONDITIONS MAY DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA LATE.

FRIDAY...SOUTH WINDS INCREASING AND BUILDING SEAS. SCA CONDITIONS
A GOOD BET BY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS LATE.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS EARLY WITH SCT SHOWERS...THEN WINDS AND SEAS
DIMINISHING LATE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG 558
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA 558
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA 558






000
FXUS61 KPHI 300959
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
559 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WEAK FRONT WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FOR LATER
MONDAY AND INTO NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 8 AM...LIGHT SHOWERS NOW APPEAR TO BE CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF
NE MD...DE AND FAR SW NJ AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
PRODUCES MID LEVEL SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS. THE 545 AM UPDATE
ATTEMPTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SHORT PERIOD LEFTOVERS.

OTHERWISE...THICK FOG ALONG MD`S E SHORE AND PORTIONS OF E PA W AND NW
OF PHL AS WELL AS FAR NW NJ WILL BEGIN THINNING AROUND 730 OR 8 AM.
AN SPS HIGHLIGHTS THAT DIFFICULTY.

TODAY...BETWEEN SHORT WAVES IT SHOULD BE QUIET THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH SOME SUNSHINE VSBY AT TIMES THROUGH THE CLOUDS. AFTERNOON HEATING
DEVELOPS SMALL SHOWERS NW OF I95 WHICH PROBABLY HAVE A TENDENCY TO
DRIFT WEST. IF THERE IS TO BE ANY THUNDER THIS FAR EAST...IT SHOULD
BE CONFINED TO THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF OUR FCST AREA WESTERN BERKS
INTO THE POCONOS. THE ECMWF SUGGESTS TEMPS MAY RUN 1-2F WARMER
THAN OUR FCST...ESP E MD.

OVERALL: TEMPS ABOUT 7F WARMER THAN NORMAL AND THE ENTIRE MONTH OF
SEPTEMBER SHOULD AVERAGE ABOUT 1.5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS.

FCST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/30 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...COOL POOL ALOFT SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH 500MB
TEMPS NEAR -15-16C. BANDS OF SHOWERS MAY BE OCCURRING WITH SUBTLE
LIFT FROM BOTH WEAK BUT DEEP ELY MOIST WINDS NORTH OF I78 AND THE
BACKDOOR COOL FRONT CONVERGENCE ZONE DRIVEN BY THE STRENGTHENING
NE FLOW NE OF THE BACKDOOR CF.

ADDITIONALLY FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE COOLER BL AIR NE OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

TEMPS ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL.

FCST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/30 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LAST OF THE UPPER LOW AND WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE EXITING THE
AREA WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME SCT SHOWERS...MOSTLY DURING THE FIRST
PART OF THE DAY. WE HAVE RETAINED THE CHC POPS FROM EARLIER. THE
POPS DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM W TO E. TEMPERATURES WED
NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...MOSTLY LOW/MID 70S.

WED NIGHT THRU FRI MORNING...MOSTLY DRY WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
DAYTIME PERIODS AND MOSTLY CLR OVERNIGHTS. TEMPERATURES
AGAIN...NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

FRI AFTERNOON THRU SATURDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER
CONSISTENT WITH A 6 HR OR SO WINDOW OF QPF CENTERED AROUND FRI
EVENING. WE HAVE UPPER THE POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE EVENING PERIOD
WITH THE EXTRA CONFID IN MULTIPLE/CONSISTENT TRENDS. PROBABILITIES
FOR THUNDER LOOK LOW AT THIS POINT SO WE WILL HOLD ON THAT...SOME
GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FROPA HOWEVER. TEMPS WILL DROP BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL SAT WITH DECENT COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED AFTER
FROPA.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...ANOTHER DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN, TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
SUNDAY...BUT BACK TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY. LOWS BOTH SAT AND SUN
NIGHTS WILL FEATURE LOW 40S NORTH RANGING TO THE LOW 50S OVER THE
DELMARVA AND METRO PHILADELPHIA.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM MID LEVEL DECK OF CIGS
AOA 10000 FT VCNTY N DE AND NE MD AT 10Z SHOULD FINALLY WEAKEN AND
DRY OUT AROUND 12-13Z AS THE UPPER LEVEL CORE OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE DRIFTS EASTWARD ONTO THE COAST. LIGHT SOUTH WIND WITH HIGHER THAN
MODELED DEWPOINTS SHOULD FACILITATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF 3 MI FOG
PATCHES AND EVEN BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS IN ST/FOG MAINLY VCNTY
KRDG/KABE.


AFTER 12Z...AFTER ANY LEFTOVER IFR ST/FOG BURNS OFF BY 14Z...OTHERWISE
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT WITH A POSSIBLE SHOWER VCNTY KRDG/KABE
LATE IN THE DAY. LIGHT SOUTH WIND TURNING E.

TONIGHT...WIND BECOMING NE AT 5-15 KT AND A DECK OF IFR ST/FOG SHOULD
DEVELOP SOUTHWESTWARD FROM LONG ISLAND BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY MOVING SW FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
N OF KPHL.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SCT SHOWERS WITH SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. E/NE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...MORNING FOG WITH LOCAL LOWER CIGS/VSBYS...THEN MOSTLY
VFR. N WIND GUST 15 KT...BECOMING NE LATE.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY...A FEW MORNING SHOWERS EAST...THEN VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES ATTM.

TODAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS AOB 3 FT TODAY WITH THE S-SW WIND
TURNING TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST.

TONIGHT...NE WINDS INCREASING WITH GUSTS TO 22 KT LATE AND SEAS
BUILDING TO NEAR 4 FT BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FT
THROUGH 8AM WEDNESDAY AS I BELIEVE THE GFS WW3 GUIDANCE IS TOO
SOON TOO HIGH.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THRU WED NIGHT: NE FLOW WITH BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS AND SCA
CRITERIA EXPECTED ALONG THE NNJ COAST AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD
TO THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS ABOVE 22 KT WITH ANY SCA
HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY. HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING ANY FORMAL
HEADLINES ON THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS CONDITIONS WILL JUST MEET
LOWER END SCA CRITERIA AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF A CONTINUING SCA FLAG SEAS ON THE
ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.
CONDITIONS MAY DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA LATE.

FRIDAY...SOUTH WINDS INCREASING AND BUILDING SEAS. SCA CONDITIONS
A GOOD BET BY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS LATE.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS EARLY WITH SCT SHOWERS...THEN WINDS AND SEAS
DIMINISHING LATE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG 558
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA 558
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA 558







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300846
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
446 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING
A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PCPN WAS MOVNG OFF THE CST EARLY THIS MORNG...AND A TROF OF LO
PRES WILL FOLLOW OUT TO SEA DURING THIS MORNG. BUT...WILL HAVE TO
DEAL WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND STRATUS ACRS MUCH OF THE REGION
THRU 8 OR 9 AM...DUE TO MOIST GROUND AND VRY LGT OR NO WIND. THE
REST OF TODAY...FCST AREA WILL BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING TROF
SFC-ALOFT OFFSHR...AND A STRONGER UPR LVL TROF PUSHING SE FM THE
GRT LKS. SKY SHOULD BECOME AT LEAST PARTLY SNY FOR LATER THIS
MORNG THRU THIS AFTN WITH LGT NE OR E WINDS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE 75
TO 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR LVL LO PRES WILL SWING ACRS SRN ENGLAND AND OFF THE CST TNGT
INTO WED NGT...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED TROF SFC-ALOFT THRU THE FCST
AREA WITH BKN CLOUDINESS AND MAINLY SLGT CHC POPS (MAINLY NNE
PORTIONS). OTHERWISE...VARIABLE CLOUDS TO PRTLY CLOUDY. LO TEMPS
TNGT WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO THE LWR 60S. HI TEMPS ON WED
WILL RANGE FM THE LWR TO MID 70S ON THE ERN SHR...TO THE UPR 70S
TO LWR 80S ELSEWHERE.

HI PRES FM NEW ENGLAND BLDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION LATER WED
NGT THRU THU...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF ENE WINDS. MODELS
SUGGEST THAT INLAND LOCATIONS HAVE A LO PROBABILITY FOR ISLTD
SHOWERS (THU MORNG) ALONG WITH VARIABLE CLOUDS. MAINLY PRTLY
CLOUDY TWD THE CST. LO TEMPS WED NGT WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO
THE LWR 60S. HI TEMPS ON THU WILL RANGE FM THE MID 70S TO ARND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A
CONTINUATION OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM.
FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

MODELS ARE RATHER CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT TO MOVE
INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
HAVE 50 PERCENT CHC FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA BEGINNING WESTERN
PORTIONS FRIDAY EVENING AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING. WENT NO HIGHER THAN 50 PERCENT BUT
AS CONFIDENCE IN THE EVENT INCREASES...FUTURE ISSUANCES WILL
PROBABLY HAVE LIKELY POPS. CURRENTLY WPC HAS ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH QPF WITH THE MAIN PART OF THE PCPN PROBABLY LASTING ABOUT SIX
HOURS AT ANY LOCATION.

FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 INLAND AND MID 70S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS IN THE
UPR 60S TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY EXCEPT ON
SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY MID TO UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE UPR
50S TO LWR 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING LOWER TO THE UPR 40S TO
MID 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR/LCL LIFR ACROSS PIEDMONT TERMINALS THIS MORNING, WITH LOW END
VFR/MVFR ACROSS COASTAL TERMINALS AS A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO SHIFT OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH CLEARING
BEGINNING INLAND, EXPECT IFR AT RIC, WITH A PERIOD OF LIFR AFTER
09Z-13Z. FARTHER EAST, LIGHT RAIN WL LINGER THROUGH 07-09Z AT
ORF/PHF/SBY/ECG...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIG/VSBY AS
CLEARING ENSUES TOWARDS DAYBREAK. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED
AFTER 15Z AT ALL TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...DRY WX IS THEN INDICATED FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
BUT...WILL NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE
EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT LGT N-NW WINDS AOB 10KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
MORNING. WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE, SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SE COAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. N-NE WINDS 5-10 KT TODAY WILL INCREASE TO 10-15KT TONIGHT
AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 3-4 FT LATE
TONIGHT/ERY WED, HIGHEST OVER OFFSHORE WATERS. NE WINDS REMAIN
SUB-SCA WED/THU, THOUGH NWPS/WAVEWATCH BOTH INCREASE SEAS INTO SCA
RANGE THURSDAY/FRIDAY. HV HELD OFF WITH SCA FLAGS FOR THE MOMENT
WITH CONDITIONS STILL APPEARING MARGINAL ATTM. WINDS VEER AROUND TO
THE S-SW FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT, WHICH CROSSES INTO THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY, WITH WINDS
QUICKLY SWINGING AROUND TO THE NW POST-FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS
AND SEAS DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300846
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
446 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING
A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PCPN WAS MOVNG OFF THE CST EARLY THIS MORNG...AND A TROF OF LO
PRES WILL FOLLOW OUT TO SEA DURING THIS MORNG. BUT...WILL HAVE TO
DEAL WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND STRATUS ACRS MUCH OF THE REGION
THRU 8 OR 9 AM...DUE TO MOIST GROUND AND VRY LGT OR NO WIND. THE
REST OF TODAY...FCST AREA WILL BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING TROF
SFC-ALOFT OFFSHR...AND A STRONGER UPR LVL TROF PUSHING SE FM THE
GRT LKS. SKY SHOULD BECOME AT LEAST PARTLY SNY FOR LATER THIS
MORNG THRU THIS AFTN WITH LGT NE OR E WINDS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE 75
TO 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR LVL LO PRES WILL SWING ACRS SRN ENGLAND AND OFF THE CST TNGT
INTO WED NGT...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED TROF SFC-ALOFT THRU THE FCST
AREA WITH BKN CLOUDINESS AND MAINLY SLGT CHC POPS (MAINLY NNE
PORTIONS). OTHERWISE...VARIABLE CLOUDS TO PRTLY CLOUDY. LO TEMPS
TNGT WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO THE LWR 60S. HI TEMPS ON WED
WILL RANGE FM THE LWR TO MID 70S ON THE ERN SHR...TO THE UPR 70S
TO LWR 80S ELSEWHERE.

HI PRES FM NEW ENGLAND BLDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION LATER WED
NGT THRU THU...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF ENE WINDS. MODELS
SUGGEST THAT INLAND LOCATIONS HAVE A LO PROBABILITY FOR ISLTD
SHOWERS (THU MORNG) ALONG WITH VARIABLE CLOUDS. MAINLY PRTLY
CLOUDY TWD THE CST. LO TEMPS WED NGT WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO
THE LWR 60S. HI TEMPS ON THU WILL RANGE FM THE MID 70S TO ARND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A
CONTINUATION OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM.
FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

MODELS ARE RATHER CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT TO MOVE
INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
HAVE 50 PERCENT CHC FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA BEGINNING WESTERN
PORTIONS FRIDAY EVENING AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING. WENT NO HIGHER THAN 50 PERCENT BUT
AS CONFIDENCE IN THE EVENT INCREASES...FUTURE ISSUANCES WILL
PROBABLY HAVE LIKELY POPS. CURRENTLY WPC HAS ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH QPF WITH THE MAIN PART OF THE PCPN PROBABLY LASTING ABOUT SIX
HOURS AT ANY LOCATION.

FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 INLAND AND MID 70S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS IN THE
UPR 60S TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY EXCEPT ON
SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY MID TO UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE UPR
50S TO LWR 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING LOWER TO THE UPR 40S TO
MID 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR/LCL LIFR ACROSS PIEDMONT TERMINALS THIS MORNING, WITH LOW END
VFR/MVFR ACROSS COASTAL TERMINALS AS A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO SHIFT OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH CLEARING
BEGINNING INLAND, EXPECT IFR AT RIC, WITH A PERIOD OF LIFR AFTER
09Z-13Z. FARTHER EAST, LIGHT RAIN WL LINGER THROUGH 07-09Z AT
ORF/PHF/SBY/ECG...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIG/VSBY AS
CLEARING ENSUES TOWARDS DAYBREAK. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED
AFTER 15Z AT ALL TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...DRY WX IS THEN INDICATED FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
BUT...WILL NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE
EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT LGT N-NW WINDS AOB 10KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
MORNING. WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE, SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SE COAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. N-NE WINDS 5-10 KT TODAY WILL INCREASE TO 10-15KT TONIGHT
AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 3-4 FT LATE
TONIGHT/ERY WED, HIGHEST OVER OFFSHORE WATERS. NE WINDS REMAIN
SUB-SCA WED/THU, THOUGH NWPS/WAVEWATCH BOTH INCREASE SEAS INTO SCA
RANGE THURSDAY/FRIDAY. HV HELD OFF WITH SCA FLAGS FOR THE MOMENT
WITH CONDITIONS STILL APPEARING MARGINAL ATTM. WINDS VEER AROUND TO
THE S-SW FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT, WHICH CROSSES INTO THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY, WITH WINDS
QUICKLY SWINGING AROUND TO THE NW POST-FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS
AND SEAS DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300825
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
425 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING
A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PCPN WAS MOVNG OFF THE CST EARLY THIS MORNG...AND A TROF OF LO
PRES WILL FOLLOW OUT TO SEA DURING THIS MORNG. BUT...WILL HAVE TO
DEAL WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND STRATUS ACRS MUCH OF THE REGION
THRU 8 OR 9 AM...DUE TO MOIST GROUND AND VRY LGT OR NO WIND. THE
REST OF TODAY...FCST AREA WILL BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING TROF
SFC-ALOFT OFFSHR...AND A STRONGER UPR LVL TROF PUSHING SE FM THE
GRT LKS. SKY SHOULD BECOME AT LEAST PARTLY SNY FOR LATER THIS
MORNG THRU THIS AFTN WITH LGT NE OR E WINDS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE 75
TO 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR LVL LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH NEW ENG TUE NGT THROUGH
WED...PUSHING ASSOCIATED TROUGH SFC-ALOFT ACRS FA W/ BKN CLDNS AND
MNLY SLGT CHC POPS (AND MNLY N AND E PORTIONS). OTRW VRB CLDS TO
PCLDY. LO TEMPS TUE NGT FM THE M50S INLAND TO L60S CSTL SE VA/NE
NC. HI TEMPS WED FM THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHORE...TO 75 TO 80F
ELSW.

HI PRES FM NEW ENG BUILDS SWWD INTO THE FA WED NGT INTO
THU...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PD OF ENE WNDS. MDLS SUGGEST THAT
INLAND PLACES HAVE LO PROB FOR ISOLD SHRAS (THU) ALONG W/ VRB
CLDS. MNLY PCLDY TWD THE CST. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM THE M50S TO
L60S. HI TEMPS THU FM THE M/U70S N...TO ARND 80F S (THOUGH L70S
XPCD RIGHT AT THE IMMEDIATE CST).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A
CONTINUATION OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM.
FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

MODELS ARE RATHER CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT TO MOVE
INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
HAVE 50 PERCENT CHC FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA BEGINNING WESTERN
PORTIONS FRIDAY EVENING AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING. WENT NO HIGHER THAN 50 PERCENT BUT
AS CONFIDENCE IN THE EVENT INCREASES...FUTURE ISSUANCES WILL
PROBABLY HAVE LIKELY POPS. CURRENTLY WPC HAS ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH QPF WITH THE MAIN PART OF THE PCPN PROBABLY LASTING ABOUT SIX
HOURS AT ANY LOCATION.

FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 INLAND AND MID 70S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS IN THE
UPR 60S TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY EXCEPT ON
SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY MID TO UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE UPR
50S TO LWR 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING LOWER TO THE UPR 40S TO
MID 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR/LCL LIFR ACROSS PIEDMONT TERMINALS THIS MORNING, WITH LOW END
VFR/MVFR ACROSS COASTAL TERMINALS AS A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO SHIFT OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH CLEARING
BEGINNING INLAND, EXPECT IFR AT RIC, WITH A PERIOD OF LIFR AFTER
09Z-13Z. FARTHER EAST, LIGHT RAIN WL LINGER THROUGH 07-09Z AT
ORF/PHF/SBY/ECG...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIG/VSBY AS
CLEARING ENSUES TOWARDS DAYBREAK. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED
AFTER 15Z AT ALL TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...DRY WX IS THEN INDICATED FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
BUT...WILL NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE
EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT LGT N-NW WINDS AOB 10KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
MORNING. WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE, SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SE COAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. N-NE WINDS 5-10 KT TODAY WILL INCREASE TO 10-15KT TONIGHT
AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 3-4 FT LATE
TONIGHT/ERY WED, HIGHEST OVER OFFSHORE WATERS. NE WINDS REMAIN
SUB-SCA WED/THU, THOUGH NWPS/WAVEWATCH BOTH INCREASE SEAS INTO SCA
RANGE THURSDAY/FRIDAY. HV HELD OFF WITH SCA FLAGS FOR THE MOMENT
WITH CONDITIONS STILL APPEARING MARGINAL ATTM. WINDS VEER AROUND TO
THE S-SW FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT, WHICH CROSSES INTO THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY, WITH WINDS
QUICKLY SWINGING AROUND TO THE NW POST-FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS
AND SEAS DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300825
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
425 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING
A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PCPN WAS MOVNG OFF THE CST EARLY THIS MORNG...AND A TROF OF LO
PRES WILL FOLLOW OUT TO SEA DURING THIS MORNG. BUT...WILL HAVE TO
DEAL WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND STRATUS ACRS MUCH OF THE REGION
THRU 8 OR 9 AM...DUE TO MOIST GROUND AND VRY LGT OR NO WIND. THE
REST OF TODAY...FCST AREA WILL BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING TROF
SFC-ALOFT OFFSHR...AND A STRONGER UPR LVL TROF PUSHING SE FM THE
GRT LKS. SKY SHOULD BECOME AT LEAST PARTLY SNY FOR LATER THIS
MORNG THRU THIS AFTN WITH LGT NE OR E WINDS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE 75
TO 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR LVL LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH NEW ENG TUE NGT THROUGH
WED...PUSHING ASSOCIATED TROUGH SFC-ALOFT ACRS FA W/ BKN CLDNS AND
MNLY SLGT CHC POPS (AND MNLY N AND E PORTIONS). OTRW VRB CLDS TO
PCLDY. LO TEMPS TUE NGT FM THE M50S INLAND TO L60S CSTL SE VA/NE
NC. HI TEMPS WED FM THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHORE...TO 75 TO 80F
ELSW.

HI PRES FM NEW ENG BUILDS SWWD INTO THE FA WED NGT INTO
THU...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PD OF ENE WNDS. MDLS SUGGEST THAT
INLAND PLACES HAVE LO PROB FOR ISOLD SHRAS (THU) ALONG W/ VRB
CLDS. MNLY PCLDY TWD THE CST. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM THE M50S TO
L60S. HI TEMPS THU FM THE M/U70S N...TO ARND 80F S (THOUGH L70S
XPCD RIGHT AT THE IMMEDIATE CST).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A
CONTINUATION OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM.
FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

MODELS ARE RATHER CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT TO MOVE
INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
HAVE 50 PERCENT CHC FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA BEGINNING WESTERN
PORTIONS FRIDAY EVENING AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING. WENT NO HIGHER THAN 50 PERCENT BUT
AS CONFIDENCE IN THE EVENT INCREASES...FUTURE ISSUANCES WILL
PROBABLY HAVE LIKELY POPS. CURRENTLY WPC HAS ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH QPF WITH THE MAIN PART OF THE PCPN PROBABLY LASTING ABOUT SIX
HOURS AT ANY LOCATION.

FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 INLAND AND MID 70S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS IN THE
UPR 60S TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY EXCEPT ON
SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY MID TO UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE UPR
50S TO LWR 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING LOWER TO THE UPR 40S TO
MID 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR/LCL LIFR ACROSS PIEDMONT TERMINALS THIS MORNING, WITH LOW END
VFR/MVFR ACROSS COASTAL TERMINALS AS A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO SHIFT OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH CLEARING
BEGINNING INLAND, EXPECT IFR AT RIC, WITH A PERIOD OF LIFR AFTER
09Z-13Z. FARTHER EAST, LIGHT RAIN WL LINGER THROUGH 07-09Z AT
ORF/PHF/SBY/ECG...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIG/VSBY AS
CLEARING ENSUES TOWARDS DAYBREAK. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED
AFTER 15Z AT ALL TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...DRY WX IS THEN INDICATED FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
BUT...WILL NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE
EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT LGT N-NW WINDS AOB 10KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
MORNING. WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE, SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SE COAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. N-NE WINDS 5-10 KT TODAY WILL INCREASE TO 10-15KT TONIGHT
AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 3-4 FT LATE
TONIGHT/ERY WED, HIGHEST OVER OFFSHORE WATERS. NE WINDS REMAIN
SUB-SCA WED/THU, THOUGH NWPS/WAVEWATCH BOTH INCREASE SEAS INTO SCA
RANGE THURSDAY/FRIDAY. HV HELD OFF WITH SCA FLAGS FOR THE MOMENT
WITH CONDITIONS STILL APPEARING MARGINAL ATTM. WINDS VEER AROUND TO
THE S-SW FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT, WHICH CROSSES INTO THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY, WITH WINDS
QUICKLY SWINGING AROUND TO THE NW POST-FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS
AND SEAS DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300825
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
425 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING
A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PCPN WAS MOVNG OFF THE CST EARLY THIS MORNG...AND A TROF OF LO
PRES WILL FOLLOW OUT TO SEA DURING THIS MORNG. BUT...WILL HAVE TO
DEAL WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND STRATUS ACRS MUCH OF THE REGION
THRU 8 OR 9 AM...DUE TO MOIST GROUND AND VRY LGT OR NO WIND. THE
REST OF TODAY...FCST AREA WILL BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING TROF
SFC-ALOFT OFFSHR...AND A STRONGER UPR LVL TROF PUSHING SE FM THE
GRT LKS. SKY SHOULD BECOME AT LEAST PARTLY SNY FOR LATER THIS
MORNG THRU THIS AFTN WITH LGT NE OR E WINDS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE 75
TO 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR LVL LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH NEW ENG TUE NGT THROUGH
WED...PUSHING ASSOCIATED TROUGH SFC-ALOFT ACRS FA W/ BKN CLDNS AND
MNLY SLGT CHC POPS (AND MNLY N AND E PORTIONS). OTRW VRB CLDS TO
PCLDY. LO TEMPS TUE NGT FM THE M50S INLAND TO L60S CSTL SE VA/NE
NC. HI TEMPS WED FM THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHORE...TO 75 TO 80F
ELSW.

HI PRES FM NEW ENG BUILDS SWWD INTO THE FA WED NGT INTO
THU...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PD OF ENE WNDS. MDLS SUGGEST THAT
INLAND PLACES HAVE LO PROB FOR ISOLD SHRAS (THU) ALONG W/ VRB
CLDS. MNLY PCLDY TWD THE CST. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM THE M50S TO
L60S. HI TEMPS THU FM THE M/U70S N...TO ARND 80F S (THOUGH L70S
XPCD RIGHT AT THE IMMEDIATE CST).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A
CONTINUATION OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM.
FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

MODELS ARE RATHER CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT TO MOVE
INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
HAVE 50 PERCENT CHC FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA BEGINNING WESTERN
PORTIONS FRIDAY EVENING AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING. WENT NO HIGHER THAN 50 PERCENT BUT
AS CONFIDENCE IN THE EVENT INCREASES...FUTURE ISSUANCES WILL
PROBABLY HAVE LIKELY POPS. CURRENTLY WPC HAS ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH QPF WITH THE MAIN PART OF THE PCPN PROBABLY LASTING ABOUT SIX
HOURS AT ANY LOCATION.

FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 INLAND AND MID 70S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS IN THE
UPR 60S TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY EXCEPT ON
SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY MID TO UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE UPR
50S TO LWR 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING LOWER TO THE UPR 40S TO
MID 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR/LCL LIFR ACROSS PIEDMONT TERMINALS THIS MORNING, WITH LOW END
VFR/MVFR ACROSS COASTAL TERMINALS AS A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO SHIFT OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH CLEARING
BEGINNING INLAND, EXPECT IFR AT RIC, WITH A PERIOD OF LIFR AFTER
09Z-13Z. FARTHER EAST, LIGHT RAIN WL LINGER THROUGH 07-09Z AT
ORF/PHF/SBY/ECG...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIG/VSBY AS
CLEARING ENSUES TOWARDS DAYBREAK. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED
AFTER 15Z AT ALL TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...DRY WX IS THEN INDICATED FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
BUT...WILL NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE
EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT LGT N-NW WINDS AOB 10KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
MORNING. WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE, SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SE COAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. N-NE WINDS 5-10 KT TODAY WILL INCREASE TO 10-15KT TONIGHT
AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 3-4 FT LATE
TONIGHT/ERY WED, HIGHEST OVER OFFSHORE WATERS. NE WINDS REMAIN
SUB-SCA WED/THU, THOUGH NWPS/WAVEWATCH BOTH INCREASE SEAS INTO SCA
RANGE THURSDAY/FRIDAY. HV HELD OFF WITH SCA FLAGS FOR THE MOMENT
WITH CONDITIONS STILL APPEARING MARGINAL ATTM. WINDS VEER AROUND TO
THE S-SW FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT, WHICH CROSSES INTO THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY, WITH WINDS
QUICKLY SWINGING AROUND TO THE NW POST-FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS
AND SEAS DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300825
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
425 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING
A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PCPN WAS MOVNG OFF THE CST EARLY THIS MORNG...AND A TROF OF LO
PRES WILL FOLLOW OUT TO SEA DURING THIS MORNG. BUT...WILL HAVE TO
DEAL WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND STRATUS ACRS MUCH OF THE REGION
THRU 8 OR 9 AM...DUE TO MOIST GROUND AND VRY LGT OR NO WIND. THE
REST OF TODAY...FCST AREA WILL BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING TROF
SFC-ALOFT OFFSHR...AND A STRONGER UPR LVL TROF PUSHING SE FM THE
GRT LKS. SKY SHOULD BECOME AT LEAST PARTLY SNY FOR LATER THIS
MORNG THRU THIS AFTN WITH LGT NE OR E WINDS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE 75
TO 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR LVL LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH NEW ENG TUE NGT THROUGH
WED...PUSHING ASSOCIATED TROUGH SFC-ALOFT ACRS FA W/ BKN CLDNS AND
MNLY SLGT CHC POPS (AND MNLY N AND E PORTIONS). OTRW VRB CLDS TO
PCLDY. LO TEMPS TUE NGT FM THE M50S INLAND TO L60S CSTL SE VA/NE
NC. HI TEMPS WED FM THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHORE...TO 75 TO 80F
ELSW.

HI PRES FM NEW ENG BUILDS SWWD INTO THE FA WED NGT INTO
THU...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PD OF ENE WNDS. MDLS SUGGEST THAT
INLAND PLACES HAVE LO PROB FOR ISOLD SHRAS (THU) ALONG W/ VRB
CLDS. MNLY PCLDY TWD THE CST. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM THE M50S TO
L60S. HI TEMPS THU FM THE M/U70S N...TO ARND 80F S (THOUGH L70S
XPCD RIGHT AT THE IMMEDIATE CST).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A
CONTINUATION OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM.
FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

MODELS ARE RATHER CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT TO MOVE
INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
HAVE 50 PERCENT CHC FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA BEGINNING WESTERN
PORTIONS FRIDAY EVENING AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING. WENT NO HIGHER THAN 50 PERCENT BUT
AS CONFIDENCE IN THE EVENT INCREASES...FUTURE ISSUANCES WILL
PROBABLY HAVE LIKELY POPS. CURRENTLY WPC HAS ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH QPF WITH THE MAIN PART OF THE PCPN PROBABLY LASTING ABOUT SIX
HOURS AT ANY LOCATION.

FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 INLAND AND MID 70S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS IN THE
UPR 60S TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY EXCEPT ON
SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY MID TO UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE UPR
50S TO LWR 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING LOWER TO THE UPR 40S TO
MID 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR/LCL LIFR ACROSS PIEDMONT TERMINALS THIS MORNING, WITH LOW END
VFR/MVFR ACROSS COASTAL TERMINALS AS A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO SHIFT OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH CLEARING
BEGINNING INLAND, EXPECT IFR AT RIC, WITH A PERIOD OF LIFR AFTER
09Z-13Z. FARTHER EAST, LIGHT RAIN WL LINGER THROUGH 07-09Z AT
ORF/PHF/SBY/ECG...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIG/VSBY AS
CLEARING ENSUES TOWARDS DAYBREAK. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED
AFTER 15Z AT ALL TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...DRY WX IS THEN INDICATED FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
BUT...WILL NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE
EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT LGT N-NW WINDS AOB 10KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
MORNING. WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE, SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SE COAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. N-NE WINDS 5-10 KT TODAY WILL INCREASE TO 10-15KT TONIGHT
AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 3-4 FT LATE
TONIGHT/ERY WED, HIGHEST OVER OFFSHORE WATERS. NE WINDS REMAIN
SUB-SCA WED/THU, THOUGH NWPS/WAVEWATCH BOTH INCREASE SEAS INTO SCA
RANGE THURSDAY/FRIDAY. HV HELD OFF WITH SCA FLAGS FOR THE MOMENT
WITH CONDITIONS STILL APPEARING MARGINAL ATTM. WINDS VEER AROUND TO
THE S-SW FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT, WHICH CROSSES INTO THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY, WITH WINDS
QUICKLY SWINGING AROUND TO THE NW POST-FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS
AND SEAS DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300823
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
423 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK BOUNDARY WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE AREA TODAY. STILL HAVING A TOUGH TIME GETTING A HANDLE ON HOW
MUCH PRECIPITATION THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BE WITH THE MAIN 50H LOW WHICH WILL TRAIL BEHIND THE
FRONT AND MOVE INTO NE OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE NEVER REALLY GETS LINED UP AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE 50H LOW...BUT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGS BACK WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A DRY LAYER UP
TO AROUND 5000 FT THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY...MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR
SHOWERS TO REACH THE GROUND. WILL LEAVE IN CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. IF THE LOW LEVELS ARE ABLE TO
SATURATE TODAY THEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...COLD POOL ALOFT...WITH PASSING 50H...LOW MAY
PROVIDE ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT AN ISOLATED STORM COULD
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WEAKENS THIS EVENING. THE 50H LOW OPENS UP AND
WHATS LEFT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DRIFTS INTO EASTERN PA.

UPPER LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY WILL SWING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
EXITING 50H LOW SO WILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN
THE FAR EAST FOR A PORTION OF THE EVENING HOURS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW ON THURSDAY...
PROVIDING SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL SEEING SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY. LATEST NAM IS SLOWING EVERYTHING DOWN...GFS IS THE MOST
PROGRESSIVE AND THE 12Z ECMWF IS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. FRIDAY DOES
APPEAR LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED WIDESPREAD RAIN.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT FROM THE QUIET WE HAVE EXPERIENCED
OVER THE LAST TWO OR SO WEEKS...TO A MORE ACTIVE AND COOLER
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR FOG ALREADY HAS DEVELOPED IN THE USUAL VALLEY LOW LYING AREAS
AND IS INCLUDED IN TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH PATCHY MVFR
ELSEWHERE. CLOSED LOW ALOFT WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST TOWARD LAKE ERIE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW. BAND OF SHOWERS
ACROSS MICHIGAN THIS MORNING CLOSER TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. MODELS
SHOWING RATHER WIDESPREAD COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
NOT WHOLLY CONVINCED OF THIS BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS WITH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. VCSH REMAINS MOST PORTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY AT KFKL AND KDUJ.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300823
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
423 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK BOUNDARY WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE AREA TODAY. STILL HAVING A TOUGH TIME GETTING A HANDLE ON HOW
MUCH PRECIPITATION THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BE WITH THE MAIN 50H LOW WHICH WILL TRAIL BEHIND THE
FRONT AND MOVE INTO NE OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE NEVER REALLY GETS LINED UP AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE 50H LOW...BUT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGS BACK WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A DRY LAYER UP
TO AROUND 5000 FT THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY...MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR
SHOWERS TO REACH THE GROUND. WILL LEAVE IN CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. IF THE LOW LEVELS ARE ABLE TO
SATURATE TODAY THEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...COLD POOL ALOFT...WITH PASSING 50H...LOW MAY
PROVIDE ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT AN ISOLATED STORM COULD
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WEAKENS THIS EVENING. THE 50H LOW OPENS UP AND
WHATS LEFT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DRIFTS INTO EASTERN PA.

UPPER LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY WILL SWING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
EXITING 50H LOW SO WILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN
THE FAR EAST FOR A PORTION OF THE EVENING HOURS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW ON THURSDAY...
PROVIDING SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL SEEING SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY. LATEST NAM IS SLOWING EVERYTHING DOWN...GFS IS THE MOST
PROGRESSIVE AND THE 12Z ECMWF IS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. FRIDAY DOES
APPEAR LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED WIDESPREAD RAIN.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT FROM THE QUIET WE HAVE EXPERIENCED
OVER THE LAST TWO OR SO WEEKS...TO A MORE ACTIVE AND COOLER
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR FOG ALREADY HAS DEVELOPED IN THE USUAL VALLEY LOW LYING AREAS
AND IS INCLUDED IN TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH PATCHY MVFR
ELSEWHERE. CLOSED LOW ALOFT WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST TOWARD LAKE ERIE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW. BAND OF SHOWERS
ACROSS MICHIGAN THIS MORNING CLOSER TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. MODELS
SHOWING RATHER WIDESPREAD COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
NOT WHOLLY CONVINCED OF THIS BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS WITH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. VCSH REMAINS MOST PORTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY AT KFKL AND KDUJ.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KLWX 300758
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
358 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ERIE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S. THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING BRINGING RAIN CHANCES TO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

HV GONE OUTSIDE MULTIPLE TIMES TO TAKE OBS NEAR IAD TNGT - THERE
IS DFNTLY FOG OUTSIDE BUT IT SEEMS MORE LK A LOW CLD DECK
DESCENDING TOWARD THE GRND THAN THE MORE TRADITIONAL DROPPING
VSBYS FM A RAD COOLING ENVIRONMENT. A FEW OBS ARE COMING IN W/ LOW VSBYS
AS WELL - CHO REPORTING 1/4 SM. BUT LOOKING AT TRAFFIC CAMS DOWN
I-81/RT 29/I-64 VSBYS AREN`T BAD. IR STLT SHOWS CLDS MOVG
OFFSHORE BUT W/ SUCH A LGT WINDS FIELD I DON`T KNOW THAT MEANS LO
LVL MOISTURE WL BE EXITING VERY QUICKLY. WE`LL CONT TO KEEP OUR
EYES ON THIS AND ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVSRY IF NEEDED.

BY MID MRNG XPCTG SOME BRKS IN THE CLDS TO DVLP. TEMPS SHOULD RISE
INTO THE MU70S.

AREA OF LOW PRES HAS MOVED E OF MI. UPR LOW ASSO W/ THIS IS XPCTD
TO TRACK ACROSS PA LATE TDA/TNGT. THIS WL BRING A CHC OF RW/TRW TO
THE NWRN PART OF THE CWA THIS AFTN. BUFKIT PROFILES ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE - PERHAPS CAPES OF 500 W/ AN ALMOST NOT EXISTANT WIND
FIELD THRU 10K FT. SVR THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THIS EVE THE SHORT MAY BE IMPACTING THE NERN PART OF THE FCST
AREA...AND HV TAKEN CHC POPS ALL THE WAY TO THE NRN PART OF THE
BAY. SOME BRKS IN CLDS XPCTD OVRNGT...AND HENCE FOG CHCS WL RETURN
AFTR MDNGT.

LOWS IN THE L60S E OF I-95...MU50S W.

WEAK HIGH PRES BDLG INTO THE AREA FM THE N WED.

HIGHS IN THE M70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LOW WED NIGHT...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
TRAPPED OVER THE MID-ATLC REGION TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. THU
WILL BE MAINLY DRY...BUT WAVERING BETWEEN CLOUDY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY.
THESE SKY CONDITIONS WILL MODERATE TEMPS...AS THEY DID ON MON. EVEN
W/ A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDING OVERHEAD...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
REMAIN MOIST. A HANDFUL OF LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS
BUT BARELY ENOUGH TO WARRENT POPS ACROSS THESE AREAS. THE SKY COVER
WILL BE A FAIRLY SHALLOW LOW STRATUS DECK THAT WILL BEGIN TO MIX OUT
DURING THE LATE AFTN HRS - W/ SOME POKES OF SUN BEFORE EVE.

A MODERATED OVERNIGHT TEMP PROFILE THU NIGHT. EVEN THOUGH A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL BE FAST-APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/TENN
VLY...OUR AREA WILL BE WELL E OF THIS FEATURE OVERNIGHT AND HAVE
ANOTHER RELATIVELY WARM NIGHT SET-UP FOR THE REGION/.

SMALLER UPPER WAVES OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY WILL MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE CNTRL APLCNS AND BEGIN TO COMBINE OR AT LEAST INTERACT AS THEY
REACH THE MS VLY REGION. WHAT STARTED AS A MORE COMPACT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS ON THU WILL BE A MORE POTENT AND ENTENSIVE
SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM THE GULF COAST TO NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY FRI. THE MAIN RESULTANT VORT MAX WILL START TO DISSIPATE AS IT
CROSSES THE SRN APLCNS AND MOVES TOWARD THE VA TIDEWATER REGION.

SLIGHTLY LAGGING BEHIND BUT NOT LACKING ANY PUNCH WILL BE YET
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE - THIS ONE PACKING THE CANADIAN AIR - WILL SWING
IN FROM THE BEHIND LATER IN THE DAY. A WAVE OF PRE-FRONTAL RAINS
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EAST COAST...INCLUDING OUR REGION...BUT IT
DEPENDS ON THIS SECONDARY INCOMING CANADIAN AIRMASS. THE STRENGTH
AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE COMING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EAST
COAST SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE IF MUCH OF PRECIP DISSIPATES AND PULLS
UP NORTH OF US LATE FRI NIGHT. THE GFS IS LESS-SHARP W/ THE INCOMING
TROUGH AXIS THAN THE RUN AT THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. A COMPLEX COUPLE
OF UPPER VORT LOBES WILL BE SWINGING AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AS IT NEARS THE AREA. EACH ONE COULD INDIVIDUALLY HAVE AN
INFLUENCE...LIKE DIGGING THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH OR FORCING A BRIEF
AREA OF STRONG LIFT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...THE DYNAMICS
OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD LARGELY EXIT OFF TO THE NORTH INTO EARLY
SAT...LIMITING NOT ONLY THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL BUT RAIN POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE REGION. NOT MUCH QPF BEING PRINTED-OUT BY LONG TERM
GUIDANCE AS MODELS LARGELY BYPASS OUR AREA FOR RAINFALL. SEEMS
REASONABLE W/ WHERE THE DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE AND THE
RELATIVE MOVEMENT AWAY FROM THE AREA.

HIGHS ON FRI WILL LIKELY REACH THE M-U70S AND THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THRU OVERNIGHT...LOWS WILL STILL ONLY DROP INTO THE 50S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. THE MTNS WILL START TO SEE 40S OVERNIGHT W/ THE
COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR COMING IN...BUT THE FRONT WON`T ARRIVE QUICK
ENOUGH TO REALLY COOL OFF THE AREA - THAT WILL BE THE NEXT NIGHT.
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE APPROACHING ON SAT...SO CONDITIONS WILL BE
PLEASANT W/ HIGHS IN THE L70S AND A DRIER AIRMASS...BUT W/ THE
TROUGH AXIS SLIDING OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY - SWEEPING IN THE
COLDER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS...OVERNIGHT LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL DROP
BACK INTO THE U40S AND L50S. ANOTHER ONE-DAY REPRIEVE BEFORE ANOTHER
CLIPPER SHORTWAVE LACKING PRECIP WILL SWING DOWN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...REINFORCING THE COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS.



&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

MRNG LO CLD/FOG DFNTLY A PROB. ATTM CONDS IN THE IFR/LIFR RNG.
GIVEN THE WIND FIELD IS SO LGT IT MAY BE SVRL HRS AFTR SUNSET B4
CONDS IMPRV SIGNIFICANTLY. VFR CONDS XPCTD AFTR MID MRNG...LASTING
THRU THE EVE. FOG MAY DVLP AGN OVRNGT W OF I-95.

TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS IN PLACE. PERIODIC LIFTING OF THE STRATUS DECK
HEIGHT POSSIBLE...ESPC DURING THE AFTN HRS EACH DAY UNTIL FRI.
SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL A FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE FRI NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT COOLER AND
DRIER CANADIAN AIRMASS.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS BLO SCA VALUES TDA THRU WED.

AN UPPER LOW MOVING OFF THE NY/NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP AN ARM OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE REGION ON THU. ALTHOUGH
WE`LL BE DRY THAT DAY...SLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE FRI...BRINGING
NW WINDS BEHIND IT THAT WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.



&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/GMS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 300758
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
358 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ERIE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S. THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING BRINGING RAIN CHANCES TO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

HV GONE OUTSIDE MULTIPLE TIMES TO TAKE OBS NEAR IAD TNGT - THERE
IS DFNTLY FOG OUTSIDE BUT IT SEEMS MORE LK A LOW CLD DECK
DESCENDING TOWARD THE GRND THAN THE MORE TRADITIONAL DROPPING
VSBYS FM A RAD COOLING ENVIRONMENT. A FEW OBS ARE COMING IN W/ LOW VSBYS
AS WELL - CHO REPORTING 1/4 SM. BUT LOOKING AT TRAFFIC CAMS DOWN
I-81/RT 29/I-64 VSBYS AREN`T BAD. IR STLT SHOWS CLDS MOVG
OFFSHORE BUT W/ SUCH A LGT WINDS FIELD I DON`T KNOW THAT MEANS LO
LVL MOISTURE WL BE EXITING VERY QUICKLY. WE`LL CONT TO KEEP OUR
EYES ON THIS AND ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVSRY IF NEEDED.

BY MID MRNG XPCTG SOME BRKS IN THE CLDS TO DVLP. TEMPS SHOULD RISE
INTO THE MU70S.

AREA OF LOW PRES HAS MOVED E OF MI. UPR LOW ASSO W/ THIS IS XPCTD
TO TRACK ACROSS PA LATE TDA/TNGT. THIS WL BRING A CHC OF RW/TRW TO
THE NWRN PART OF THE CWA THIS AFTN. BUFKIT PROFILES ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE - PERHAPS CAPES OF 500 W/ AN ALMOST NOT EXISTANT WIND
FIELD THRU 10K FT. SVR THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THIS EVE THE SHORT MAY BE IMPACTING THE NERN PART OF THE FCST
AREA...AND HV TAKEN CHC POPS ALL THE WAY TO THE NRN PART OF THE
BAY. SOME BRKS IN CLDS XPCTD OVRNGT...AND HENCE FOG CHCS WL RETURN
AFTR MDNGT.

LOWS IN THE L60S E OF I-95...MU50S W.

WEAK HIGH PRES BDLG INTO THE AREA FM THE N WED.

HIGHS IN THE M70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LOW WED NIGHT...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
TRAPPED OVER THE MID-ATLC REGION TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. THU
WILL BE MAINLY DRY...BUT WAVERING BETWEEN CLOUDY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY.
THESE SKY CONDITIONS WILL MODERATE TEMPS...AS THEY DID ON MON. EVEN
W/ A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDING OVERHEAD...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
REMAIN MOIST. A HANDFUL OF LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS
BUT BARELY ENOUGH TO WARRENT POPS ACROSS THESE AREAS. THE SKY COVER
WILL BE A FAIRLY SHALLOW LOW STRATUS DECK THAT WILL BEGIN TO MIX OUT
DURING THE LATE AFTN HRS - W/ SOME POKES OF SUN BEFORE EVE.

A MODERATED OVERNIGHT TEMP PROFILE THU NIGHT. EVEN THOUGH A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL BE FAST-APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/TENN
VLY...OUR AREA WILL BE WELL E OF THIS FEATURE OVERNIGHT AND HAVE
ANOTHER RELATIVELY WARM NIGHT SET-UP FOR THE REGION/.

SMALLER UPPER WAVES OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY WILL MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE CNTRL APLCNS AND BEGIN TO COMBINE OR AT LEAST INTERACT AS THEY
REACH THE MS VLY REGION. WHAT STARTED AS A MORE COMPACT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS ON THU WILL BE A MORE POTENT AND ENTENSIVE
SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM THE GULF COAST TO NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY FRI. THE MAIN RESULTANT VORT MAX WILL START TO DISSIPATE AS IT
CROSSES THE SRN APLCNS AND MOVES TOWARD THE VA TIDEWATER REGION.

SLIGHTLY LAGGING BEHIND BUT NOT LACKING ANY PUNCH WILL BE YET
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE - THIS ONE PACKING THE CANADIAN AIR - WILL SWING
IN FROM THE BEHIND LATER IN THE DAY. A WAVE OF PRE-FRONTAL RAINS
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EAST COAST...INCLUDING OUR REGION...BUT IT
DEPENDS ON THIS SECONDARY INCOMING CANADIAN AIRMASS. THE STRENGTH
AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE COMING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EAST
COAST SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE IF MUCH OF PRECIP DISSIPATES AND PULLS
UP NORTH OF US LATE FRI NIGHT. THE GFS IS LESS-SHARP W/ THE INCOMING
TROUGH AXIS THAN THE RUN AT THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. A COMPLEX COUPLE
OF UPPER VORT LOBES WILL BE SWINGING AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AS IT NEARS THE AREA. EACH ONE COULD INDIVIDUALLY HAVE AN
INFLUENCE...LIKE DIGGING THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH OR FORCING A BRIEF
AREA OF STRONG LIFT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...THE DYNAMICS
OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD LARGELY EXIT OFF TO THE NORTH INTO EARLY
SAT...LIMITING NOT ONLY THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL BUT RAIN POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE REGION. NOT MUCH QPF BEING PRINTED-OUT BY LONG TERM
GUIDANCE AS MODELS LARGELY BYPASS OUR AREA FOR RAINFALL. SEEMS
REASONABLE W/ WHERE THE DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE AND THE
RELATIVE MOVEMENT AWAY FROM THE AREA.

HIGHS ON FRI WILL LIKELY REACH THE M-U70S AND THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THRU OVERNIGHT...LOWS WILL STILL ONLY DROP INTO THE 50S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. THE MTNS WILL START TO SEE 40S OVERNIGHT W/ THE
COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR COMING IN...BUT THE FRONT WON`T ARRIVE QUICK
ENOUGH TO REALLY COOL OFF THE AREA - THAT WILL BE THE NEXT NIGHT.
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE APPROACHING ON SAT...SO CONDITIONS WILL BE
PLEASANT W/ HIGHS IN THE L70S AND A DRIER AIRMASS...BUT W/ THE
TROUGH AXIS SLIDING OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY - SWEEPING IN THE
COLDER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS...OVERNIGHT LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL DROP
BACK INTO THE U40S AND L50S. ANOTHER ONE-DAY REPRIEVE BEFORE ANOTHER
CLIPPER SHORTWAVE LACKING PRECIP WILL SWING DOWN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...REINFORCING THE COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS.



&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

MRNG LO CLD/FOG DFNTLY A PROB. ATTM CONDS IN THE IFR/LIFR RNG.
GIVEN THE WIND FIELD IS SO LGT IT MAY BE SVRL HRS AFTR SUNSET B4
CONDS IMPRV SIGNIFICANTLY. VFR CONDS XPCTD AFTR MID MRNG...LASTING
THRU THE EVE. FOG MAY DVLP AGN OVRNGT W OF I-95.

TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS IN PLACE. PERIODIC LIFTING OF THE STRATUS DECK
HEIGHT POSSIBLE...ESPC DURING THE AFTN HRS EACH DAY UNTIL FRI.
SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL A FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE FRI NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT COOLER AND
DRIER CANADIAN AIRMASS.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS BLO SCA VALUES TDA THRU WED.

AN UPPER LOW MOVING OFF THE NY/NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP AN ARM OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE REGION ON THU. ALTHOUGH
WE`LL BE DRY THAT DAY...SLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE FRI...BRINGING
NW WINDS BEHIND IT THAT WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.



&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/GMS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 300758
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
358 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ERIE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S. THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING BRINGING RAIN CHANCES TO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

HV GONE OUTSIDE MULTIPLE TIMES TO TAKE OBS NEAR IAD TNGT - THERE
IS DFNTLY FOG OUTSIDE BUT IT SEEMS MORE LK A LOW CLD DECK
DESCENDING TOWARD THE GRND THAN THE MORE TRADITIONAL DROPPING
VSBYS FM A RAD COOLING ENVIRONMENT. A FEW OBS ARE COMING IN W/ LOW VSBYS
AS WELL - CHO REPORTING 1/4 SM. BUT LOOKING AT TRAFFIC CAMS DOWN
I-81/RT 29/I-64 VSBYS AREN`T BAD. IR STLT SHOWS CLDS MOVG
OFFSHORE BUT W/ SUCH A LGT WINDS FIELD I DON`T KNOW THAT MEANS LO
LVL MOISTURE WL BE EXITING VERY QUICKLY. WE`LL CONT TO KEEP OUR
EYES ON THIS AND ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVSRY IF NEEDED.

BY MID MRNG XPCTG SOME BRKS IN THE CLDS TO DVLP. TEMPS SHOULD RISE
INTO THE MU70S.

AREA OF LOW PRES HAS MOVED E OF MI. UPR LOW ASSO W/ THIS IS XPCTD
TO TRACK ACROSS PA LATE TDA/TNGT. THIS WL BRING A CHC OF RW/TRW TO
THE NWRN PART OF THE CWA THIS AFTN. BUFKIT PROFILES ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE - PERHAPS CAPES OF 500 W/ AN ALMOST NOT EXISTANT WIND
FIELD THRU 10K FT. SVR THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THIS EVE THE SHORT MAY BE IMPACTING THE NERN PART OF THE FCST
AREA...AND HV TAKEN CHC POPS ALL THE WAY TO THE NRN PART OF THE
BAY. SOME BRKS IN CLDS XPCTD OVRNGT...AND HENCE FOG CHCS WL RETURN
AFTR MDNGT.

LOWS IN THE L60S E OF I-95...MU50S W.

WEAK HIGH PRES BDLG INTO THE AREA FM THE N WED.

HIGHS IN THE M70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LOW WED NIGHT...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
TRAPPED OVER THE MID-ATLC REGION TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. THU
WILL BE MAINLY DRY...BUT WAVERING BETWEEN CLOUDY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY.
THESE SKY CONDITIONS WILL MODERATE TEMPS...AS THEY DID ON MON. EVEN
W/ A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDING OVERHEAD...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
REMAIN MOIST. A HANDFUL OF LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS
BUT BARELY ENOUGH TO WARRENT POPS ACROSS THESE AREAS. THE SKY COVER
WILL BE A FAIRLY SHALLOW LOW STRATUS DECK THAT WILL BEGIN TO MIX OUT
DURING THE LATE AFTN HRS - W/ SOME POKES OF SUN BEFORE EVE.

A MODERATED OVERNIGHT TEMP PROFILE THU NIGHT. EVEN THOUGH A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL BE FAST-APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/TENN
VLY...OUR AREA WILL BE WELL E OF THIS FEATURE OVERNIGHT AND HAVE
ANOTHER RELATIVELY WARM NIGHT SET-UP FOR THE REGION/.

SMALLER UPPER WAVES OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY WILL MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE CNTRL APLCNS AND BEGIN TO COMBINE OR AT LEAST INTERACT AS THEY
REACH THE MS VLY REGION. WHAT STARTED AS A MORE COMPACT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS ON THU WILL BE A MORE POTENT AND ENTENSIVE
SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM THE GULF COAST TO NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY FRI. THE MAIN RESULTANT VORT MAX WILL START TO DISSIPATE AS IT
CROSSES THE SRN APLCNS AND MOVES TOWARD THE VA TIDEWATER REGION.

SLIGHTLY LAGGING BEHIND BUT NOT LACKING ANY PUNCH WILL BE YET
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE - THIS ONE PACKING THE CANADIAN AIR - WILL SWING
IN FROM THE BEHIND LATER IN THE DAY. A WAVE OF PRE-FRONTAL RAINS
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EAST COAST...INCLUDING OUR REGION...BUT IT
DEPENDS ON THIS SECONDARY INCOMING CANADIAN AIRMASS. THE STRENGTH
AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE COMING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EAST
COAST SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE IF MUCH OF PRECIP DISSIPATES AND PULLS
UP NORTH OF US LATE FRI NIGHT. THE GFS IS LESS-SHARP W/ THE INCOMING
TROUGH AXIS THAN THE RUN AT THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. A COMPLEX COUPLE
OF UPPER VORT LOBES WILL BE SWINGING AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AS IT NEARS THE AREA. EACH ONE COULD INDIVIDUALLY HAVE AN
INFLUENCE...LIKE DIGGING THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH OR FORCING A BRIEF
AREA OF STRONG LIFT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...THE DYNAMICS
OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD LARGELY EXIT OFF TO THE NORTH INTO EARLY
SAT...LIMITING NOT ONLY THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL BUT RAIN POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE REGION. NOT MUCH QPF BEING PRINTED-OUT BY LONG TERM
GUIDANCE AS MODELS LARGELY BYPASS OUR AREA FOR RAINFALL. SEEMS
REASONABLE W/ WHERE THE DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE AND THE
RELATIVE MOVEMENT AWAY FROM THE AREA.

HIGHS ON FRI WILL LIKELY REACH THE M-U70S AND THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THRU OVERNIGHT...LOWS WILL STILL ONLY DROP INTO THE 50S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. THE MTNS WILL START TO SEE 40S OVERNIGHT W/ THE
COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR COMING IN...BUT THE FRONT WON`T ARRIVE QUICK
ENOUGH TO REALLY COOL OFF THE AREA - THAT WILL BE THE NEXT NIGHT.
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE APPROACHING ON SAT...SO CONDITIONS WILL BE
PLEASANT W/ HIGHS IN THE L70S AND A DRIER AIRMASS...BUT W/ THE
TROUGH AXIS SLIDING OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY - SWEEPING IN THE
COLDER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS...OVERNIGHT LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL DROP
BACK INTO THE U40S AND L50S. ANOTHER ONE-DAY REPRIEVE BEFORE ANOTHER
CLIPPER SHORTWAVE LACKING PRECIP WILL SWING DOWN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...REINFORCING THE COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS.



&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

MRNG LO CLD/FOG DFNTLY A PROB. ATTM CONDS IN THE IFR/LIFR RNG.
GIVEN THE WIND FIELD IS SO LGT IT MAY BE SVRL HRS AFTR SUNSET B4
CONDS IMPRV SIGNIFICANTLY. VFR CONDS XPCTD AFTR MID MRNG...LASTING
THRU THE EVE. FOG MAY DVLP AGN OVRNGT W OF I-95.

TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS IN PLACE. PERIODIC LIFTING OF THE STRATUS DECK
HEIGHT POSSIBLE...ESPC DURING THE AFTN HRS EACH DAY UNTIL FRI.
SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL A FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE FRI NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT COOLER AND
DRIER CANADIAN AIRMASS.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS BLO SCA VALUES TDA THRU WED.

AN UPPER LOW MOVING OFF THE NY/NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP AN ARM OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE REGION ON THU. ALTHOUGH
WE`LL BE DRY THAT DAY...SLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE FRI...BRINGING
NW WINDS BEHIND IT THAT WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.



&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/GMS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 300758
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
358 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ERIE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S. THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING BRINGING RAIN CHANCES TO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

HV GONE OUTSIDE MULTIPLE TIMES TO TAKE OBS NEAR IAD TNGT - THERE
IS DFNTLY FOG OUTSIDE BUT IT SEEMS MORE LK A LOW CLD DECK
DESCENDING TOWARD THE GRND THAN THE MORE TRADITIONAL DROPPING
VSBYS FM A RAD COOLING ENVIRONMENT. A FEW OBS ARE COMING IN W/ LOW VSBYS
AS WELL - CHO REPORTING 1/4 SM. BUT LOOKING AT TRAFFIC CAMS DOWN
I-81/RT 29/I-64 VSBYS AREN`T BAD. IR STLT SHOWS CLDS MOVG
OFFSHORE BUT W/ SUCH A LGT WINDS FIELD I DON`T KNOW THAT MEANS LO
LVL MOISTURE WL BE EXITING VERY QUICKLY. WE`LL CONT TO KEEP OUR
EYES ON THIS AND ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVSRY IF NEEDED.

BY MID MRNG XPCTG SOME BRKS IN THE CLDS TO DVLP. TEMPS SHOULD RISE
INTO THE MU70S.

AREA OF LOW PRES HAS MOVED E OF MI. UPR LOW ASSO W/ THIS IS XPCTD
TO TRACK ACROSS PA LATE TDA/TNGT. THIS WL BRING A CHC OF RW/TRW TO
THE NWRN PART OF THE CWA THIS AFTN. BUFKIT PROFILES ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE - PERHAPS CAPES OF 500 W/ AN ALMOST NOT EXISTANT WIND
FIELD THRU 10K FT. SVR THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THIS EVE THE SHORT MAY BE IMPACTING THE NERN PART OF THE FCST
AREA...AND HV TAKEN CHC POPS ALL THE WAY TO THE NRN PART OF THE
BAY. SOME BRKS IN CLDS XPCTD OVRNGT...AND HENCE FOG CHCS WL RETURN
AFTR MDNGT.

LOWS IN THE L60S E OF I-95...MU50S W.

WEAK HIGH PRES BDLG INTO THE AREA FM THE N WED.

HIGHS IN THE M70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LOW WED NIGHT...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
TRAPPED OVER THE MID-ATLC REGION TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. THU
WILL BE MAINLY DRY...BUT WAVERING BETWEEN CLOUDY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY.
THESE SKY CONDITIONS WILL MODERATE TEMPS...AS THEY DID ON MON. EVEN
W/ A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDING OVERHEAD...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
REMAIN MOIST. A HANDFUL OF LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS
BUT BARELY ENOUGH TO WARRENT POPS ACROSS THESE AREAS. THE SKY COVER
WILL BE A FAIRLY SHALLOW LOW STRATUS DECK THAT WILL BEGIN TO MIX OUT
DURING THE LATE AFTN HRS - W/ SOME POKES OF SUN BEFORE EVE.

A MODERATED OVERNIGHT TEMP PROFILE THU NIGHT. EVEN THOUGH A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL BE FAST-APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/TENN
VLY...OUR AREA WILL BE WELL E OF THIS FEATURE OVERNIGHT AND HAVE
ANOTHER RELATIVELY WARM NIGHT SET-UP FOR THE REGION/.

SMALLER UPPER WAVES OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY WILL MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE CNTRL APLCNS AND BEGIN TO COMBINE OR AT LEAST INTERACT AS THEY
REACH THE MS VLY REGION. WHAT STARTED AS A MORE COMPACT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS ON THU WILL BE A MORE POTENT AND ENTENSIVE
SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM THE GULF COAST TO NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY FRI. THE MAIN RESULTANT VORT MAX WILL START TO DISSIPATE AS IT
CROSSES THE SRN APLCNS AND MOVES TOWARD THE VA TIDEWATER REGION.

SLIGHTLY LAGGING BEHIND BUT NOT LACKING ANY PUNCH WILL BE YET
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE - THIS ONE PACKING THE CANADIAN AIR - WILL SWING
IN FROM THE BEHIND LATER IN THE DAY. A WAVE OF PRE-FRONTAL RAINS
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EAST COAST...INCLUDING OUR REGION...BUT IT
DEPENDS ON THIS SECONDARY INCOMING CANADIAN AIRMASS. THE STRENGTH
AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE COMING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EAST
COAST SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE IF MUCH OF PRECIP DISSIPATES AND PULLS
UP NORTH OF US LATE FRI NIGHT. THE GFS IS LESS-SHARP W/ THE INCOMING
TROUGH AXIS THAN THE RUN AT THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. A COMPLEX COUPLE
OF UPPER VORT LOBES WILL BE SWINGING AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AS IT NEARS THE AREA. EACH ONE COULD INDIVIDUALLY HAVE AN
INFLUENCE...LIKE DIGGING THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH OR FORCING A BRIEF
AREA OF STRONG LIFT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...THE DYNAMICS
OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD LARGELY EXIT OFF TO THE NORTH INTO EARLY
SAT...LIMITING NOT ONLY THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL BUT RAIN POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE REGION. NOT MUCH QPF BEING PRINTED-OUT BY LONG TERM
GUIDANCE AS MODELS LARGELY BYPASS OUR AREA FOR RAINFALL. SEEMS
REASONABLE W/ WHERE THE DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE AND THE
RELATIVE MOVEMENT AWAY FROM THE AREA.

HIGHS ON FRI WILL LIKELY REACH THE M-U70S AND THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THRU OVERNIGHT...LOWS WILL STILL ONLY DROP INTO THE 50S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. THE MTNS WILL START TO SEE 40S OVERNIGHT W/ THE
COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR COMING IN...BUT THE FRONT WON`T ARRIVE QUICK
ENOUGH TO REALLY COOL OFF THE AREA - THAT WILL BE THE NEXT NIGHT.
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE APPROACHING ON SAT...SO CONDITIONS WILL BE
PLEASANT W/ HIGHS IN THE L70S AND A DRIER AIRMASS...BUT W/ THE
TROUGH AXIS SLIDING OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY - SWEEPING IN THE
COLDER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS...OVERNIGHT LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL DROP
BACK INTO THE U40S AND L50S. ANOTHER ONE-DAY REPRIEVE BEFORE ANOTHER
CLIPPER SHORTWAVE LACKING PRECIP WILL SWING DOWN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...REINFORCING THE COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS.



&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

MRNG LO CLD/FOG DFNTLY A PROB. ATTM CONDS IN THE IFR/LIFR RNG.
GIVEN THE WIND FIELD IS SO LGT IT MAY BE SVRL HRS AFTR SUNSET B4
CONDS IMPRV SIGNIFICANTLY. VFR CONDS XPCTD AFTR MID MRNG...LASTING
THRU THE EVE. FOG MAY DVLP AGN OVRNGT W OF I-95.

TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS IN PLACE. PERIODIC LIFTING OF THE STRATUS DECK
HEIGHT POSSIBLE...ESPC DURING THE AFTN HRS EACH DAY UNTIL FRI.
SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL A FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE FRI NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT COOLER AND
DRIER CANADIAN AIRMASS.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS BLO SCA VALUES TDA THRU WED.

AN UPPER LOW MOVING OFF THE NY/NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP AN ARM OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE REGION ON THU. ALTHOUGH
WE`LL BE DRY THAT DAY...SLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE FRI...BRINGING
NW WINDS BEHIND IT THAT WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.



&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/GMS







000
FXUS61 KPHI 300742
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
342 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WEAK FRONT WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FOR LATER
MONDAY AND INTO NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 7 AM...LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH AND END OVER THE DELMARVA
AND COASTAL NJ BY 7 AM. FOG WILL THICKEN OVER PORTIONS E PA WITH FOG
POSSIBLE ALSO IN AREAS WHERE IT RAINED LATE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT BUT
APPARENTLY THE THICKEST FOG WILL BE FROM NW NJ THROUGH E PA SOUTHWESTWARD.

TODAY...BETWEEN SHORT WAVES IT SHOULD BE QUIET THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH SOME SUNSHINE VSBY AT TIMES THROUGH THE CLOUDS. AFTERNOON HEATING
DEVELOPS SMALL SHOWERS NW OF I95 WHICH PROBABLY HAVE A TENDENCY TO
DRIFT WEST. IF THERE IS TO BE ANY THUNDER THIS FAR EAST...IT
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF OUR FCST AREA. THE
ECMWF SUGGESTS TEMPS MAY RUN 1-2 F WARMER THAN OUR FCST...ESP E
MD.

TEMPS ABOUT 7F WARMER THAN NORMAL.

FCST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/30 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...COOL POOL ALOFT SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH 500MB
TEMPS NEAR -15-16C. BANDS OF SHOWERS MAY BE OCCURRING WITH SUBTLE
LIFT FROM BOTH WEAK BUT DEEP ELY MOIST WINDS NORTH OF I78 AND THE
BACKDOOR COOL FRONT CONVERGENCE ZONE DRIVEN BY THE STRENGTHENING
NE FLOW NE OF THE BACKDOOR CF.

ADDITIONALLY FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE COOLER BL AIR NE OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

TEMPS ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL.

FCST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/30 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LAST OF THE UPPER LOW AND WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE EXITING THE
AREA WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME SCT SHOWERS...MOSTLY DURING THE FIRST
PART OF THE DAY. WE HAVE RETAINED THE CHC POPS FROM EARLIER. THE
POPS DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM W TO E. TEMPERATURES WED
NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...MOSTLY LOW/MID 70S.

WED NIGHT THRU FRI MORNING...MOSTLY DRY WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
DAYTIME PERIODS AND MOSTLY CLR OVERNIGHTS. TEMPERATURES
AGAIN...NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

FRI AFTERNOON THRU SATURDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER
CONSISTENT WITH A 6 HR OR SO WINDOW OF QPF CENTERED AROUND FRI
EVENING. WE HAVE UPPER THE POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE EVENING PERIOD
WITH THE EXTRA CONFID IN MULTIPLE/CONSISTENT TRENDS. PROBABILITIES
FOR THUNDER LOOK LOW AT THIS POINT SO WE WILL HOLD ON THAT...SOME
GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FROPA HOWEVER. TEMPS WILL DROP BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL SAT WITH DECENT COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED AFTER
FROPA.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...ANOTHER DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN, TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
SUNDAY...BUT BACK TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY. LOWS BOTH SAT AND SUN
NIGHTS WILL FEATURE LOW 40S NORTH RANGING TO THE LOW 50S OVER THE
DELMARVA AND METRO PHILADELPHIA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM MID LEVEL DECK OF CIGS
AOA 6000 FT WITH A CLEARING TREND EXPECTED E PA OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
SOUTH WIND WITH HIGHER THAN MODELED DEWPOINTS SHOULD FACILITATE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF 1-3 MI FOG PATCHES AND POTENTIAL BRIEF LIFR
CONDITIONS IN ST/FOG BOTH VCNTY KRDG/KABE BUT ALSO ELSEWHERE WHERE IT
RAINED THIS PAST MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

AFTER 12Z...AFTER ANY LEFTOVER IFR ST/FOG BURNS OFF BY 14Z...OTHERWISE
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT WITH A POSSIBLE SHOWER VCNTY KRDG/KABE.
LIGHT SOUTH WIND TURNING E.

TONIGHT...WIND BECOMING NE AT 5-15 KT AND A DECK OF IFR ST/FOG
SHOULD DEVELOP SOUTHWESTWARD FROM LONG ISLAND BEHIND THE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING SW FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...MAINLY N OF KPHL.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SCT SHOWERS WITH SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. E/NE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...MORNING FOG WITH LOCAL LOWER CIGS/VSBYS...THEN MOSTLY
VFR. N WIND GUST 15 KT...BECOMING NE LATE.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY...A FEW MORNING SHOWERS EAST...THEN VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES ATTM.

TODAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS AOB 3 FT TODAY WITH THE S-SW WIND
TURNING TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST.

TONIGHT...NE WINDS INCREASING WITH GUSTS TO 22 KT LATE AND SEAS
BUILDING TO NEAR 4 FT BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FT
THROUGH 8AM WEDNESDAY AS I BELIEVE THE GFS WW3 GUIDANCE IS TOO
SOON TOO HIGH.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THRU WED NIGHT: NE FLOW WITH BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS AND SCA
CRITERIA EXPECTED ALONG THE NNJ COAST AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD
TO THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS ABOVE 22 KT WITH ANY SCA
HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY. HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING ANY FORMAL
HEADLINES ON THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS CONDITIONS WILL JUST MEET
LOWER END SCA CRITERIA AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF A CONTINUING SCA FLAG SEAS ON THE
ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.
CONDITIONS MAY DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA LATE.

FRIDAY...SOUTH WINDS INCREASING AND BUILDING SEAS. SCA CONDITIONS
A GOOD BET BY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS LATE.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS EARLY WITH SCT SHOWERS...THEN WINDS AND SEAS
DIMINISHING LATE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 300742
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
342 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WEAK FRONT WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FOR LATER
MONDAY AND INTO NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 7 AM...LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH AND END OVER THE DELMARVA
AND COASTAL NJ BY 7 AM. FOG WILL THICKEN OVER PORTIONS E PA WITH FOG
POSSIBLE ALSO IN AREAS WHERE IT RAINED LATE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT BUT
APPARENTLY THE THICKEST FOG WILL BE FROM NW NJ THROUGH E PA SOUTHWESTWARD.

TODAY...BETWEEN SHORT WAVES IT SHOULD BE QUIET THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH SOME SUNSHINE VSBY AT TIMES THROUGH THE CLOUDS. AFTERNOON HEATING
DEVELOPS SMALL SHOWERS NW OF I95 WHICH PROBABLY HAVE A TENDENCY TO
DRIFT WEST. IF THERE IS TO BE ANY THUNDER THIS FAR EAST...IT
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF OUR FCST AREA. THE
ECMWF SUGGESTS TEMPS MAY RUN 1-2 F WARMER THAN OUR FCST...ESP E
MD.

TEMPS ABOUT 7F WARMER THAN NORMAL.

FCST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/30 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...COOL POOL ALOFT SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH 500MB
TEMPS NEAR -15-16C. BANDS OF SHOWERS MAY BE OCCURRING WITH SUBTLE
LIFT FROM BOTH WEAK BUT DEEP ELY MOIST WINDS NORTH OF I78 AND THE
BACKDOOR COOL FRONT CONVERGENCE ZONE DRIVEN BY THE STRENGTHENING
NE FLOW NE OF THE BACKDOOR CF.

ADDITIONALLY FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE COOLER BL AIR NE OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

TEMPS ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL.

FCST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/30 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LAST OF THE UPPER LOW AND WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE EXITING THE
AREA WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME SCT SHOWERS...MOSTLY DURING THE FIRST
PART OF THE DAY. WE HAVE RETAINED THE CHC POPS FROM EARLIER. THE
POPS DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM W TO E. TEMPERATURES WED
NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...MOSTLY LOW/MID 70S.

WED NIGHT THRU FRI MORNING...MOSTLY DRY WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
DAYTIME PERIODS AND MOSTLY CLR OVERNIGHTS. TEMPERATURES
AGAIN...NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

FRI AFTERNOON THRU SATURDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER
CONSISTENT WITH A 6 HR OR SO WINDOW OF QPF CENTERED AROUND FRI
EVENING. WE HAVE UPPER THE POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE EVENING PERIOD
WITH THE EXTRA CONFID IN MULTIPLE/CONSISTENT TRENDS. PROBABILITIES
FOR THUNDER LOOK LOW AT THIS POINT SO WE WILL HOLD ON THAT...SOME
GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FROPA HOWEVER. TEMPS WILL DROP BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL SAT WITH DECENT COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED AFTER
FROPA.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...ANOTHER DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN, TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
SUNDAY...BUT BACK TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY. LOWS BOTH SAT AND SUN
NIGHTS WILL FEATURE LOW 40S NORTH RANGING TO THE LOW 50S OVER THE
DELMARVA AND METRO PHILADELPHIA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM MID LEVEL DECK OF CIGS
AOA 6000 FT WITH A CLEARING TREND EXPECTED E PA OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
SOUTH WIND WITH HIGHER THAN MODELED DEWPOINTS SHOULD FACILITATE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF 1-3 MI FOG PATCHES AND POTENTIAL BRIEF LIFR
CONDITIONS IN ST/FOG BOTH VCNTY KRDG/KABE BUT ALSO ELSEWHERE WHERE IT
RAINED THIS PAST MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

AFTER 12Z...AFTER ANY LEFTOVER IFR ST/FOG BURNS OFF BY 14Z...OTHERWISE
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT WITH A POSSIBLE SHOWER VCNTY KRDG/KABE.
LIGHT SOUTH WIND TURNING E.

TONIGHT...WIND BECOMING NE AT 5-15 KT AND A DECK OF IFR ST/FOG
SHOULD DEVELOP SOUTHWESTWARD FROM LONG ISLAND BEHIND THE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING SW FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...MAINLY N OF KPHL.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SCT SHOWERS WITH SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. E/NE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...MORNING FOG WITH LOCAL LOWER CIGS/VSBYS...THEN MOSTLY
VFR. N WIND GUST 15 KT...BECOMING NE LATE.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY...A FEW MORNING SHOWERS EAST...THEN VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES ATTM.

TODAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS AOB 3 FT TODAY WITH THE S-SW WIND
TURNING TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST.

TONIGHT...NE WINDS INCREASING WITH GUSTS TO 22 KT LATE AND SEAS
BUILDING TO NEAR 4 FT BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FT
THROUGH 8AM WEDNESDAY AS I BELIEVE THE GFS WW3 GUIDANCE IS TOO
SOON TOO HIGH.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THRU WED NIGHT: NE FLOW WITH BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS AND SCA
CRITERIA EXPECTED ALONG THE NNJ COAST AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD
TO THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS ABOVE 22 KT WITH ANY SCA
HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY. HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING ANY FORMAL
HEADLINES ON THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS CONDITIONS WILL JUST MEET
LOWER END SCA CRITERIA AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF A CONTINUING SCA FLAG SEAS ON THE
ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.
CONDITIONS MAY DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA LATE.

FRIDAY...SOUTH WINDS INCREASING AND BUILDING SEAS. SCA CONDITIONS
A GOOD BET BY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS LATE.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS EARLY WITH SCT SHOWERS...THEN WINDS AND SEAS
DIMINISHING LATE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 300706
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
306 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WEAK FRONT WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FOR LATER
MONDAY AND INTO NEXT TUESDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 7 AM...LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH AND END OVER THE DELMARVA
AND COASTAL NJ BY 7 AM. FOG WILL THICKEN OVER PORTIONS E PA WITH FOG
POSSIBLE ALSO IN AREAS WHERE IT RAINED LATE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT BUT
APPARENTLY THE THICKEST FOG WILL BE FROM NW NJ THROUGH E PA SOUTHWESTWARD.

TODAY...BETWEEN SHORT WAVES IT SHOULD BE QUIET THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH SOME SUNSHINE VSBY AT TIMES THROUGH THE CLOUDS. AFTERNOON HEATING
DEVELOPS SMALL SHOWERS NW OF I95 WHICH PROBABLY HAVE A TENDENCY TO
DRIFT WEST. IF THERE IS TO BE ANY THUNDER THIS FAR EAST...IT
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF OUR FCST AREA. THE
ECMWF SUGGESTS TEMPS MAY RUN 1-2 F WARMER THAN OUR FCST...ESP E
MD.

TEMPS ABOUT 7F WARMER THAN NORMAL.

FCST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/30 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...COOL POOL ALOFT SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH 500MB
TEMPS NEAR -15-16C. BANDS OF SHOWERS MAY BE OCCURRING WITH SUBTLE
LIFT FROM BOTH WEAK BUT DEEP ELY MOIST WINDS NORTH OF I78 AND THE
BACKDOOR COOL FRONT CONVERGENCE ZONE DRIVEN BY THE STRENGTHENING
NE FLOW NE OF THE BACKDOOR CF.

ADDITIONALLY FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE COOLER BL AIR NE OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

TEMPS ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL.

FCST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/30 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY FEW CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST FROM 12 HOURS
AGO. SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD BUT AMOUNTS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE ON THE RELATIVELY LIGHT SIDE. TEMPERATURES
FOR THE TIME PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EARLY IN THE
PERIOD, THEN TRENDING TO NEAR NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING WITH NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
RAIN. HIGHEST POPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND BEFORE A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE ON MONDAY, ONCE AGAIN BRINGING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION.

USE WPC GUIDANCE PREDOMINATELY FOR DAYS 4 THOUGH 7. FOR TUE NIGHT
INTO THU, USED A 50/50 BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ADJUSTED GFS
MAV MOS

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM MID LEVEL DECK OF CIGS
AOA 6000 FT WITH A CLEARING TREND EXPECTED E PA OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
SOUTH WIND WITH HIGHER THAN MODELED DEWPOINTS SHOULD FACILITATE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF 1-3 MI FOG PATCHES AND POTENTIAL BRIEF LIFR
CONDITIONS IN ST/FOG BOTH VCNTY KRDG/KABE BUT ALSO ELSEWHERE WHERE IT
RAINED THIS PAST MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

AFTER 12Z...AFTER ANY LEFTOVER IFR ST/FOG BURNS OFF BY 14Z...OTHERWISE
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT WITH A POSSIBLE SHOWER VCNTY KRDG/KABE.
LIGHT SOUTH WIND TURNING E.

TONIGHT...WIND BECOMING NE AT 5-15 KT AND A DECK OF IFR ST/FOG
SHOULD DEVELOP SOUTHWESTWARD FROM LONG ISLAND BEHIND THE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING SW FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...MAINLY N OF KPHL.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS
KABE/KRDG/KTTN DURING THE MORNING. E/NE WINDS GUST 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR FOG EARLY OTHERWISE VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AOA 4000 FT. N-NW WIND GUST 15 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES ATTM.

TODAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS AOB 3 FT TODAY WITH THE S-SW WIND
TURNING TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST.

TONIGHT...NE WINDS INCREASING WITH GUSTS TO 22 KT LATE AND SEAS
BUILDING TO NEAR 4 FT BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FT
THROUGH 8AM WEDNESDAY AS I BELIEVE THE GFS WW3 GUIDANCE IS TOO
SOON TOO HIGH.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NE FLOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA ALONG THE NNJ COAST AND THEN
POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD TO THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST LATER WEDNESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS ABOVE 22 KT
WITH ANY SCA HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY. HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING
ANY FORMAL HEADLINES ON THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS CONDITIONS WILL
JUST MEET LOWER END SCA CRITERIA AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF SCA SEAS ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE
SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.

FRIDAY...WIND BECOMING SOUTH BY NIGHT. SMALL CHANCE OF AN SCA AT
NIGHT.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE,
THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/SZATKOWSKI 305
NEAR TERM...DRAG 305
SHORT TERM...DRAG 305
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...DRAG/SZATKOWSKI 305
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/SZATKOWSKI/HEAVENER 305







000
FXUS61 KPHI 300706
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
306 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WEAK FRONT WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FOR LATER
MONDAY AND INTO NEXT TUESDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 7 AM...LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH AND END OVER THE DELMARVA
AND COASTAL NJ BY 7 AM. FOG WILL THICKEN OVER PORTIONS E PA WITH FOG
POSSIBLE ALSO IN AREAS WHERE IT RAINED LATE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT BUT
APPARENTLY THE THICKEST FOG WILL BE FROM NW NJ THROUGH E PA SOUTHWESTWARD.

TODAY...BETWEEN SHORT WAVES IT SHOULD BE QUIET THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH SOME SUNSHINE VSBY AT TIMES THROUGH THE CLOUDS. AFTERNOON HEATING
DEVELOPS SMALL SHOWERS NW OF I95 WHICH PROBABLY HAVE A TENDENCY TO
DRIFT WEST. IF THERE IS TO BE ANY THUNDER THIS FAR EAST...IT
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF OUR FCST AREA. THE
ECMWF SUGGESTS TEMPS MAY RUN 1-2 F WARMER THAN OUR FCST...ESP E
MD.

TEMPS ABOUT 7F WARMER THAN NORMAL.

FCST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/30 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...COOL POOL ALOFT SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH 500MB
TEMPS NEAR -15-16C. BANDS OF SHOWERS MAY BE OCCURRING WITH SUBTLE
LIFT FROM BOTH WEAK BUT DEEP ELY MOIST WINDS NORTH OF I78 AND THE
BACKDOOR COOL FRONT CONVERGENCE ZONE DRIVEN BY THE STRENGTHENING
NE FLOW NE OF THE BACKDOOR CF.

ADDITIONALLY FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE COOLER BL AIR NE OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

TEMPS ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL.

FCST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/30 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY FEW CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST FROM 12 HOURS
AGO. SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD BUT AMOUNTS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE ON THE RELATIVELY LIGHT SIDE. TEMPERATURES
FOR THE TIME PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EARLY IN THE
PERIOD, THEN TRENDING TO NEAR NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING WITH NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
RAIN. HIGHEST POPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND BEFORE A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE ON MONDAY, ONCE AGAIN BRINGING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION.

USE WPC GUIDANCE PREDOMINATELY FOR DAYS 4 THOUGH 7. FOR TUE NIGHT
INTO THU, USED A 50/50 BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ADJUSTED GFS
MAV MOS

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM MID LEVEL DECK OF CIGS
AOA 6000 FT WITH A CLEARING TREND EXPECTED E PA OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
SOUTH WIND WITH HIGHER THAN MODELED DEWPOINTS SHOULD FACILITATE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF 1-3 MI FOG PATCHES AND POTENTIAL BRIEF LIFR
CONDITIONS IN ST/FOG BOTH VCNTY KRDG/KABE BUT ALSO ELSEWHERE WHERE IT
RAINED THIS PAST MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

AFTER 12Z...AFTER ANY LEFTOVER IFR ST/FOG BURNS OFF BY 14Z...OTHERWISE
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT WITH A POSSIBLE SHOWER VCNTY KRDG/KABE.
LIGHT SOUTH WIND TURNING E.

TONIGHT...WIND BECOMING NE AT 5-15 KT AND A DECK OF IFR ST/FOG
SHOULD DEVELOP SOUTHWESTWARD FROM LONG ISLAND BEHIND THE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING SW FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...MAINLY N OF KPHL.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS
KABE/KRDG/KTTN DURING THE MORNING. E/NE WINDS GUST 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR FOG EARLY OTHERWISE VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AOA 4000 FT. N-NW WIND GUST 15 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES ATTM.

TODAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS AOB 3 FT TODAY WITH THE S-SW WIND
TURNING TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST.

TONIGHT...NE WINDS INCREASING WITH GUSTS TO 22 KT LATE AND SEAS
BUILDING TO NEAR 4 FT BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FT
THROUGH 8AM WEDNESDAY AS I BELIEVE THE GFS WW3 GUIDANCE IS TOO
SOON TOO HIGH.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NE FLOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA ALONG THE NNJ COAST AND THEN
POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD TO THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST LATER WEDNESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS ABOVE 22 KT
WITH ANY SCA HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY. HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING
ANY FORMAL HEADLINES ON THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS CONDITIONS WILL
JUST MEET LOWER END SCA CRITERIA AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF SCA SEAS ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE
SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.

FRIDAY...WIND BECOMING SOUTH BY NIGHT. SMALL CHANCE OF AN SCA AT
NIGHT.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE,
THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/SZATKOWSKI 305
NEAR TERM...DRAG 305
SHORT TERM...DRAG 305
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...DRAG/SZATKOWSKI 305
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/SZATKOWSKI/HEAVENER 305






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300618
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
218 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FA COVERED IN CLDNS THIS EVE...AND AN AREA OF -RA/DZ HAS SLOWED ITS
PROGRESS EWD...RESIDING FROM THE INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN TO THE ERN
SHORE AS OF 10 PM. HIGHEST POPS (30-50%) TO RMN OVER
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS THROUGH MDNGT...BEFORE SHIFTING E LATER ON.
TROUGH OF LO PRES SFC-ALOFT WILL BE SLO TO EXIT THE CST AFT
MDNGT...BRINGING A GRADUAL END OF PCPN FM W-E. ALSO SLOWED ANY
CLEARING BEHIND THIS SYS AFT MDNGT...AND ADDED AREAS OF FG FOR THE
PIEDMONT...AND PATCHY FG I-95 CORRIDOR TO THE COASTAL PLAIN. LOW
TEMPS FM THE M/U50S NW TO 60S CSTL SE VA/NE NC. ADDITIONAL QPF
MNLY AVGG 1/10TH INCH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR TUE...FA TO BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING TROUGH SFC-ALOFT
OFFSHORE (SHUNTING PRECIP EVENTUALLY WELL E AND S OF THE FA BY
MIDDAY/AFTN HRS)...AND A STRONGER UPR LVL TROUGH PUSHING SE FROM
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. NOT MUCH FORCING WILL REMAIN ACRS THE FA
(EARLY) TUE MRNG. HAVE POPS AOB 14% MOST PLACES...THOUGH MAINTAINING
JUST A SLGT CHC POP ACRS FA SE VA/CSTL NE NC. XPCG P/MSNY CONDS N
AND CNTRL...TO P/MCLDY SE...W/ HI TEMPS MNLY 75 TO 80F.

UPR LVL LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH NEW ENG TUE NGT THROUGH WED...PUSHING
ASSOCIATED TROUGH SFC-ALOFT ACRS FA W/ BKN CLDNS AND MNLY SLGT CHC
POPS (AND MNLY N AND E PORTIONS). OTRW VRB CLDS TO PCLDY. LO TEMPS
TUE NGT FM THE M50S INLAND TO L60S CSTL SE VA/NE NC. HI TEMPS WED
FM THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHORE...TO 75 TO 80F ELSW.

HI PRES FM NEW ENG BUILDS SWWD INTO THE FA WED NGT INTO
THU...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PD OF ENE WNDS. MDLS SUGGEST THAT
INLAND PLACES HAVE LO PROB FOR ISOLD SHRAS (THU) ALONG W/ VRB
CLDS. MNLY PCLDY TWD THE CST. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM THE M50S TO
L60S. HI TEMPS THU FM THE M/U70S N...TO ARND 80F S (THOUGH L70S
XPCD RIGHT AT THE IMMEDIATE CST).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A
CONTINUATION OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM.
FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

MODELS ARE RATHER CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT TO MOVE
INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
HAVE 50 PERCENT CHC FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA BEGINNING WESTERN
PORTIONS FRIDAY EVENING AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING. WENT NO HIGHER THAN 50 PERCENT BUT
AS CONFIDENCE IN THE EVENT INCREASES...FUTURE ISSUANCES WILL
PROBABLY HAVE LIKELY POPS. CURRENTLY WPC HAS ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH QPF WITH THE MAIN PART OF THE PCPN PROBABLY LASTING ABOUT SIX
HOURS AT ANY LOCATION.

FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 INLAND AND MID 70S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS IN THE
UPR 60S TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY EXCEPT ON
SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY MID TO UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE UPR
50S TO LWR 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING LOWER TO THE UPR 40S TO
MID 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR/LCL LIFR ACROSS PIEDMONT TERMINALS THIS MORNING, WITH LOW END
VFR/MVFR ACROSS COASTAL TERMINALS AS A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO SHIFT OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH CLEARING
BEGINNING INLAND, EXPECT IFR AT RIC, WITH A PERIOD OF LIFR AFTER
09Z-13Z. FARTHER EAST, LIGHT RAIN WL LINGER THROUGH 07-09Z AT
ORF/PHF/SBY/ECG...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIG/VSBY AS
CLEARING ENSUES TOWARDS DAYBREAK. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED
AFTER 15Z AT ALL TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...DRY WX IS THEN INDICATED FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
BUT...WILL NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE
EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS ARE PROVIDING QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WHICH WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. N/NE WINDS INCREASE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AND SEAS MAY BUILD TO NEAR 5 FEET EARLY WEDNESDAY IN
THE OUTER PORTION OF THE COASTAL ZONES. WINDS DIMINISH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY BUT WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...LSA







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300618
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
218 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FA COVERED IN CLDNS THIS EVE...AND AN AREA OF -RA/DZ HAS SLOWED ITS
PROGRESS EWD...RESIDING FROM THE INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN TO THE ERN
SHORE AS OF 10 PM. HIGHEST POPS (30-50%) TO RMN OVER
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS THROUGH MDNGT...BEFORE SHIFTING E LATER ON.
TROUGH OF LO PRES SFC-ALOFT WILL BE SLO TO EXIT THE CST AFT
MDNGT...BRINGING A GRADUAL END OF PCPN FM W-E. ALSO SLOWED ANY
CLEARING BEHIND THIS SYS AFT MDNGT...AND ADDED AREAS OF FG FOR THE
PIEDMONT...AND PATCHY FG I-95 CORRIDOR TO THE COASTAL PLAIN. LOW
TEMPS FM THE M/U50S NW TO 60S CSTL SE VA/NE NC. ADDITIONAL QPF
MNLY AVGG 1/10TH INCH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR TUE...FA TO BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING TROUGH SFC-ALOFT
OFFSHORE (SHUNTING PRECIP EVENTUALLY WELL E AND S OF THE FA BY
MIDDAY/AFTN HRS)...AND A STRONGER UPR LVL TROUGH PUSHING SE FROM
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. NOT MUCH FORCING WILL REMAIN ACRS THE FA
(EARLY) TUE MRNG. HAVE POPS AOB 14% MOST PLACES...THOUGH MAINTAINING
JUST A SLGT CHC POP ACRS FA SE VA/CSTL NE NC. XPCG P/MSNY CONDS N
AND CNTRL...TO P/MCLDY SE...W/ HI TEMPS MNLY 75 TO 80F.

UPR LVL LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH NEW ENG TUE NGT THROUGH WED...PUSHING
ASSOCIATED TROUGH SFC-ALOFT ACRS FA W/ BKN CLDNS AND MNLY SLGT CHC
POPS (AND MNLY N AND E PORTIONS). OTRW VRB CLDS TO PCLDY. LO TEMPS
TUE NGT FM THE M50S INLAND TO L60S CSTL SE VA/NE NC. HI TEMPS WED
FM THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHORE...TO 75 TO 80F ELSW.

HI PRES FM NEW ENG BUILDS SWWD INTO THE FA WED NGT INTO
THU...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PD OF ENE WNDS. MDLS SUGGEST THAT
INLAND PLACES HAVE LO PROB FOR ISOLD SHRAS (THU) ALONG W/ VRB
CLDS. MNLY PCLDY TWD THE CST. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM THE M50S TO
L60S. HI TEMPS THU FM THE M/U70S N...TO ARND 80F S (THOUGH L70S
XPCD RIGHT AT THE IMMEDIATE CST).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A
CONTINUATION OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM.
FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

MODELS ARE RATHER CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT TO MOVE
INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
HAVE 50 PERCENT CHC FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA BEGINNING WESTERN
PORTIONS FRIDAY EVENING AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING. WENT NO HIGHER THAN 50 PERCENT BUT
AS CONFIDENCE IN THE EVENT INCREASES...FUTURE ISSUANCES WILL
PROBABLY HAVE LIKELY POPS. CURRENTLY WPC HAS ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH QPF WITH THE MAIN PART OF THE PCPN PROBABLY LASTING ABOUT SIX
HOURS AT ANY LOCATION.

FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 INLAND AND MID 70S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS IN THE
UPR 60S TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY EXCEPT ON
SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY MID TO UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE UPR
50S TO LWR 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING LOWER TO THE UPR 40S TO
MID 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR/LCL LIFR ACROSS PIEDMONT TERMINALS THIS MORNING, WITH LOW END
VFR/MVFR ACROSS COASTAL TERMINALS AS A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO SHIFT OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH CLEARING
BEGINNING INLAND, EXPECT IFR AT RIC, WITH A PERIOD OF LIFR AFTER
09Z-13Z. FARTHER EAST, LIGHT RAIN WL LINGER THROUGH 07-09Z AT
ORF/PHF/SBY/ECG...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIG/VSBY AS
CLEARING ENSUES TOWARDS DAYBREAK. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED
AFTER 15Z AT ALL TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...DRY WX IS THEN INDICATED FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
BUT...WILL NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE
EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS ARE PROVIDING QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WHICH WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. N/NE WINDS INCREASE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AND SEAS MAY BUILD TO NEAR 5 FEET EARLY WEDNESDAY IN
THE OUTER PORTION OF THE COASTAL ZONES. WINDS DIMINISH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY BUT WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...LSA







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300618
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
218 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FA COVERED IN CLDNS THIS EVE...AND AN AREA OF -RA/DZ HAS SLOWED ITS
PROGRESS EWD...RESIDING FROM THE INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN TO THE ERN
SHORE AS OF 10 PM. HIGHEST POPS (30-50%) TO RMN OVER
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS THROUGH MDNGT...BEFORE SHIFTING E LATER ON.
TROUGH OF LO PRES SFC-ALOFT WILL BE SLO TO EXIT THE CST AFT
MDNGT...BRINGING A GRADUAL END OF PCPN FM W-E. ALSO SLOWED ANY
CLEARING BEHIND THIS SYS AFT MDNGT...AND ADDED AREAS OF FG FOR THE
PIEDMONT...AND PATCHY FG I-95 CORRIDOR TO THE COASTAL PLAIN. LOW
TEMPS FM THE M/U50S NW TO 60S CSTL SE VA/NE NC. ADDITIONAL QPF
MNLY AVGG 1/10TH INCH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR TUE...FA TO BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING TROUGH SFC-ALOFT
OFFSHORE (SHUNTING PRECIP EVENTUALLY WELL E AND S OF THE FA BY
MIDDAY/AFTN HRS)...AND A STRONGER UPR LVL TROUGH PUSHING SE FROM
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. NOT MUCH FORCING WILL REMAIN ACRS THE FA
(EARLY) TUE MRNG. HAVE POPS AOB 14% MOST PLACES...THOUGH MAINTAINING
JUST A SLGT CHC POP ACRS FA SE VA/CSTL NE NC. XPCG P/MSNY CONDS N
AND CNTRL...TO P/MCLDY SE...W/ HI TEMPS MNLY 75 TO 80F.

UPR LVL LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH NEW ENG TUE NGT THROUGH WED...PUSHING
ASSOCIATED TROUGH SFC-ALOFT ACRS FA W/ BKN CLDNS AND MNLY SLGT CHC
POPS (AND MNLY N AND E PORTIONS). OTRW VRB CLDS TO PCLDY. LO TEMPS
TUE NGT FM THE M50S INLAND TO L60S CSTL SE VA/NE NC. HI TEMPS WED
FM THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHORE...TO 75 TO 80F ELSW.

HI PRES FM NEW ENG BUILDS SWWD INTO THE FA WED NGT INTO
THU...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PD OF ENE WNDS. MDLS SUGGEST THAT
INLAND PLACES HAVE LO PROB FOR ISOLD SHRAS (THU) ALONG W/ VRB
CLDS. MNLY PCLDY TWD THE CST. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM THE M50S TO
L60S. HI TEMPS THU FM THE M/U70S N...TO ARND 80F S (THOUGH L70S
XPCD RIGHT AT THE IMMEDIATE CST).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A
CONTINUATION OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM.
FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

MODELS ARE RATHER CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT TO MOVE
INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
HAVE 50 PERCENT CHC FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA BEGINNING WESTERN
PORTIONS FRIDAY EVENING AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING. WENT NO HIGHER THAN 50 PERCENT BUT
AS CONFIDENCE IN THE EVENT INCREASES...FUTURE ISSUANCES WILL
PROBABLY HAVE LIKELY POPS. CURRENTLY WPC HAS ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH QPF WITH THE MAIN PART OF THE PCPN PROBABLY LASTING ABOUT SIX
HOURS AT ANY LOCATION.

FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 INLAND AND MID 70S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS IN THE
UPR 60S TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY EXCEPT ON
SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY MID TO UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE UPR
50S TO LWR 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING LOWER TO THE UPR 40S TO
MID 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR/LCL LIFR ACROSS PIEDMONT TERMINALS THIS MORNING, WITH LOW END
VFR/MVFR ACROSS COASTAL TERMINALS AS A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO SHIFT OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH CLEARING
BEGINNING INLAND, EXPECT IFR AT RIC, WITH A PERIOD OF LIFR AFTER
09Z-13Z. FARTHER EAST, LIGHT RAIN WL LINGER THROUGH 07-09Z AT
ORF/PHF/SBY/ECG...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIG/VSBY AS
CLEARING ENSUES TOWARDS DAYBREAK. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED
AFTER 15Z AT ALL TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...DRY WX IS THEN INDICATED FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
BUT...WILL NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE
EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS ARE PROVIDING QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WHICH WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. N/NE WINDS INCREASE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AND SEAS MAY BUILD TO NEAR 5 FEET EARLY WEDNESDAY IN
THE OUTER PORTION OF THE COASTAL ZONES. WINDS DIMINISH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY BUT WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...LSA







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300618
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
218 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FA COVERED IN CLDNS THIS EVE...AND AN AREA OF -RA/DZ HAS SLOWED ITS
PROGRESS EWD...RESIDING FROM THE INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN TO THE ERN
SHORE AS OF 10 PM. HIGHEST POPS (30-50%) TO RMN OVER
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS THROUGH MDNGT...BEFORE SHIFTING E LATER ON.
TROUGH OF LO PRES SFC-ALOFT WILL BE SLO TO EXIT THE CST AFT
MDNGT...BRINGING A GRADUAL END OF PCPN FM W-E. ALSO SLOWED ANY
CLEARING BEHIND THIS SYS AFT MDNGT...AND ADDED AREAS OF FG FOR THE
PIEDMONT...AND PATCHY FG I-95 CORRIDOR TO THE COASTAL PLAIN. LOW
TEMPS FM THE M/U50S NW TO 60S CSTL SE VA/NE NC. ADDITIONAL QPF
MNLY AVGG 1/10TH INCH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR TUE...FA TO BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING TROUGH SFC-ALOFT
OFFSHORE (SHUNTING PRECIP EVENTUALLY WELL E AND S OF THE FA BY
MIDDAY/AFTN HRS)...AND A STRONGER UPR LVL TROUGH PUSHING SE FROM
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. NOT MUCH FORCING WILL REMAIN ACRS THE FA
(EARLY) TUE MRNG. HAVE POPS AOB 14% MOST PLACES...THOUGH MAINTAINING
JUST A SLGT CHC POP ACRS FA SE VA/CSTL NE NC. XPCG P/MSNY CONDS N
AND CNTRL...TO P/MCLDY SE...W/ HI TEMPS MNLY 75 TO 80F.

UPR LVL LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH NEW ENG TUE NGT THROUGH WED...PUSHING
ASSOCIATED TROUGH SFC-ALOFT ACRS FA W/ BKN CLDNS AND MNLY SLGT CHC
POPS (AND MNLY N AND E PORTIONS). OTRW VRB CLDS TO PCLDY. LO TEMPS
TUE NGT FM THE M50S INLAND TO L60S CSTL SE VA/NE NC. HI TEMPS WED
FM THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHORE...TO 75 TO 80F ELSW.

HI PRES FM NEW ENG BUILDS SWWD INTO THE FA WED NGT INTO
THU...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PD OF ENE WNDS. MDLS SUGGEST THAT
INLAND PLACES HAVE LO PROB FOR ISOLD SHRAS (THU) ALONG W/ VRB
CLDS. MNLY PCLDY TWD THE CST. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM THE M50S TO
L60S. HI TEMPS THU FM THE M/U70S N...TO ARND 80F S (THOUGH L70S
XPCD RIGHT AT THE IMMEDIATE CST).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A
CONTINUATION OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM.
FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

MODELS ARE RATHER CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT TO MOVE
INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
HAVE 50 PERCENT CHC FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA BEGINNING WESTERN
PORTIONS FRIDAY EVENING AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING. WENT NO HIGHER THAN 50 PERCENT BUT
AS CONFIDENCE IN THE EVENT INCREASES...FUTURE ISSUANCES WILL
PROBABLY HAVE LIKELY POPS. CURRENTLY WPC HAS ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH QPF WITH THE MAIN PART OF THE PCPN PROBABLY LASTING ABOUT SIX
HOURS AT ANY LOCATION.

FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 INLAND AND MID 70S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS IN THE
UPR 60S TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY EXCEPT ON
SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY MID TO UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE UPR
50S TO LWR 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING LOWER TO THE UPR 40S TO
MID 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR/LCL LIFR ACROSS PIEDMONT TERMINALS THIS MORNING, WITH LOW END
VFR/MVFR ACROSS COASTAL TERMINALS AS A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO SHIFT OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH CLEARING
BEGINNING INLAND, EXPECT IFR AT RIC, WITH A PERIOD OF LIFR AFTER
09Z-13Z. FARTHER EAST, LIGHT RAIN WL LINGER THROUGH 07-09Z AT
ORF/PHF/SBY/ECG...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIG/VSBY AS
CLEARING ENSUES TOWARDS DAYBREAK. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED
AFTER 15Z AT ALL TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...DRY WX IS THEN INDICATED FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
BUT...WILL NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE
EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS ARE PROVIDING QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WHICH WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. N/NE WINDS INCREASE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AND SEAS MAY BUILD TO NEAR 5 FEET EARLY WEDNESDAY IN
THE OUTER PORTION OF THE COASTAL ZONES. WINDS DIMINISH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY BUT WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...LSA







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300539
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
139 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PORTION OF FORECAST IS RIGHT IN LINE. WILL UPDATE TEMPS.

WEAK BOUNDARY WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE AREA TODAY. STILL HAVING A TOUGH TIME GETTING A HANDLE ON HOW
MUCH PRECIPITATION THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BE WITH THE MAIN 50H LOW WHICH WILL TRAIL BEHIND THE
FRONT AND MOVE INTO NE OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE NEVER REALLY GETS LINED UP AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE 50H LOW...BUT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGS BACK WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A DRY LAYER UP
TO AROUND 5000 FT THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY...MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR
SHOWERS TO REACH THE GROUND. WILL LEAVE IN CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. IF THE LOW LEVELS ARE ABLE TO
SATURATE TODAY THEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WEAKENS THIS EVENING. THE 50H LOW OPENS UP AND
WHATS LEFT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DRIFTS INTO EASTERN PA.

UPPER LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY WILL SWING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
EXITING 50H LOW SO WILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN
THE FAR EAST FOR A PORTION OF THE EVENING HOURS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW ON THURSDAY...
PROVIDING SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL SEEING SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY. LATEST NAM IS SLOWING EVERYTHING DOWN...GFS IS THE MOST
PROGRESSIVE AND THE 12Z ECMWF IS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. FRIDAY DOES
APPEAR LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED WIDESPREAD RAIN.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT FROM THE QUIET WE HAVE EXPERIENCED
OVER THE LAST TWO OR SO WEEKS...TO A MORE ACTIVE AND COOLER
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR FOG ALREADY HAS DEVELOPED IN THE USUAL VALLEY LOW LYING AREAS
AND IS INCLUDED IN TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH PATCHY MVFR
ELSEWHERE. CLOSED LOW ALOFT WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST TOWARD LAKE ERIE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW. BAND OF SHOWERS
ACROSS MICHIGAN THIS MORNING CLOSER TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. MODELS
SHOWING RATHER WIDESPREAD COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
NOT WHOLLY CONVINCED OF THIS BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS WITH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. VCSH REMAINS MOST PORTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY AT KFKL AND KDUJ.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300539
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
139 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PORTION OF FORECAST IS RIGHT IN LINE. WILL UPDATE TEMPS.

WEAK BOUNDARY WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE AREA TODAY. STILL HAVING A TOUGH TIME GETTING A HANDLE ON HOW
MUCH PRECIPITATION THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BE WITH THE MAIN 50H LOW WHICH WILL TRAIL BEHIND THE
FRONT AND MOVE INTO NE OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE NEVER REALLY GETS LINED UP AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE 50H LOW...BUT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGS BACK WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A DRY LAYER UP
TO AROUND 5000 FT THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY...MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR
SHOWERS TO REACH THE GROUND. WILL LEAVE IN CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. IF THE LOW LEVELS ARE ABLE TO
SATURATE TODAY THEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WEAKENS THIS EVENING. THE 50H LOW OPENS UP AND
WHATS LEFT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DRIFTS INTO EASTERN PA.

UPPER LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY WILL SWING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
EXITING 50H LOW SO WILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN
THE FAR EAST FOR A PORTION OF THE EVENING HOURS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW ON THURSDAY...
PROVIDING SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL SEEING SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY. LATEST NAM IS SLOWING EVERYTHING DOWN...GFS IS THE MOST
PROGRESSIVE AND THE 12Z ECMWF IS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. FRIDAY DOES
APPEAR LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED WIDESPREAD RAIN.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT FROM THE QUIET WE HAVE EXPERIENCED
OVER THE LAST TWO OR SO WEEKS...TO A MORE ACTIVE AND COOLER
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR FOG ALREADY HAS DEVELOPED IN THE USUAL VALLEY LOW LYING AREAS
AND IS INCLUDED IN TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH PATCHY MVFR
ELSEWHERE. CLOSED LOW ALOFT WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST TOWARD LAKE ERIE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW. BAND OF SHOWERS
ACROSS MICHIGAN THIS MORNING CLOSER TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. MODELS
SHOWING RATHER WIDESPREAD COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
NOT WHOLLY CONVINCED OF THIS BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS WITH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. VCSH REMAINS MOST PORTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY AT KFKL AND KDUJ.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300539
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
139 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PORTION OF FORECAST IS RIGHT IN LINE. WILL UPDATE TEMPS.

WEAK BOUNDARY WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE AREA TODAY. STILL HAVING A TOUGH TIME GETTING A HANDLE ON HOW
MUCH PRECIPITATION THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BE WITH THE MAIN 50H LOW WHICH WILL TRAIL BEHIND THE
FRONT AND MOVE INTO NE OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE NEVER REALLY GETS LINED UP AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE 50H LOW...BUT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGS BACK WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A DRY LAYER UP
TO AROUND 5000 FT THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY...MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR
SHOWERS TO REACH THE GROUND. WILL LEAVE IN CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. IF THE LOW LEVELS ARE ABLE TO
SATURATE TODAY THEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WEAKENS THIS EVENING. THE 50H LOW OPENS UP AND
WHATS LEFT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DRIFTS INTO EASTERN PA.

UPPER LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY WILL SWING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
EXITING 50H LOW SO WILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN
THE FAR EAST FOR A PORTION OF THE EVENING HOURS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW ON THURSDAY...
PROVIDING SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL SEEING SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY. LATEST NAM IS SLOWING EVERYTHING DOWN...GFS IS THE MOST
PROGRESSIVE AND THE 12Z ECMWF IS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. FRIDAY DOES
APPEAR LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED WIDESPREAD RAIN.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT FROM THE QUIET WE HAVE EXPERIENCED
OVER THE LAST TWO OR SO WEEKS...TO A MORE ACTIVE AND COOLER
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR FOG ALREADY HAS DEVELOPED IN THE USUAL VALLEY LOW LYING AREAS
AND IS INCLUDED IN TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH PATCHY MVFR
ELSEWHERE. CLOSED LOW ALOFT WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST TOWARD LAKE ERIE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW. BAND OF SHOWERS
ACROSS MICHIGAN THIS MORNING CLOSER TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. MODELS
SHOWING RATHER WIDESPREAD COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
NOT WHOLLY CONVINCED OF THIS BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS WITH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. VCSH REMAINS MOST PORTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY AT KFKL AND KDUJ.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300539
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
139 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PORTION OF FORECAST IS RIGHT IN LINE. WILL UPDATE TEMPS.

WEAK BOUNDARY WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE AREA TODAY. STILL HAVING A TOUGH TIME GETTING A HANDLE ON HOW
MUCH PRECIPITATION THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BE WITH THE MAIN 50H LOW WHICH WILL TRAIL BEHIND THE
FRONT AND MOVE INTO NE OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE NEVER REALLY GETS LINED UP AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE 50H LOW...BUT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGS BACK WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A DRY LAYER UP
TO AROUND 5000 FT THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY...MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR
SHOWERS TO REACH THE GROUND. WILL LEAVE IN CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. IF THE LOW LEVELS ARE ABLE TO
SATURATE TODAY THEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WEAKENS THIS EVENING. THE 50H LOW OPENS UP AND
WHATS LEFT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DRIFTS INTO EASTERN PA.

UPPER LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY WILL SWING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
EXITING 50H LOW SO WILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN
THE FAR EAST FOR A PORTION OF THE EVENING HOURS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW ON THURSDAY...
PROVIDING SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL SEEING SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY. LATEST NAM IS SLOWING EVERYTHING DOWN...GFS IS THE MOST
PROGRESSIVE AND THE 12Z ECMWF IS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. FRIDAY DOES
APPEAR LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED WIDESPREAD RAIN.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT FROM THE QUIET WE HAVE EXPERIENCED
OVER THE LAST TWO OR SO WEEKS...TO A MORE ACTIVE AND COOLER
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR FOG ALREADY HAS DEVELOPED IN THE USUAL VALLEY LOW LYING AREAS
AND IS INCLUDED IN TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH PATCHY MVFR
ELSEWHERE. CLOSED LOW ALOFT WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST TOWARD LAKE ERIE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW. BAND OF SHOWERS
ACROSS MICHIGAN THIS MORNING CLOSER TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. MODELS
SHOWING RATHER WIDESPREAD COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
NOT WHOLLY CONVINCED OF THIS BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS WITH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. VCSH REMAINS MOST PORTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY AT KFKL AND KDUJ.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300501 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
101 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PORTION OF FORECAST IS RIGHT IN LINE. WILL UPDATE TEMPS.

WEAK BOUNDARY WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE AREA TODAY. STILL HAVING A TOUGH TIME GETTING A HANDLE ON HOW
MUCH PRECIPITATION THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BE WITH THE MAIN 50H LOW WHICH WILL TRAIL BEHIND THE
FRONT AND MOVE INTO NE OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE NEVER REALLY GETS LINED UP AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE 50H LOW...BUT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGS BACK WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A DRY LAYER UP
TO AROUND 5000 FT THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY...MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR
SHOWERS TO REACH THE GROUND. WILL LEAVE IN CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. IF THE LOW LEVELS ARE ABLE TO
SATURATE TODAY THEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WEAKENS THIS EVENING. THE 50H LOW OPENS UP AND
WHATS LEFT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DRIFTS INTO EASTERN PA.

UPPER LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY WILL SWING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
EXITING 50H LOW SO WILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN
THE FAR EAST FOR A PORTION OF THE EVENING HOURS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW ON THURSDAY...
PROVIDING SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL SEEING SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY. LATEST NAM IS SLOWING EVERYTHING DOWN...GFS IS THE MOST
PROGRESSIVE AND THE 12Z ECMWF IS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. FRIDAY DOES
APPEAR LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED WIDESPREAD RAIN.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT FROM THE QUIET WE HAVE EXPERIENCED
OVER THE LAST TWO OR SO WEEKS...TO A MORE ACTIVE AND COOLER
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE ONLY BLEMISH ON VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY IS
EXPECTED TO COME FROM FM SHALLOW PREDAWN FOG. SHOULD MID LVL
CLDINESS DVLP A FEW HRS QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED WITH THE ADVN OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHRTWV...THAT RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WL BE
PRECLUDED.

OTHERWISE...SCT SHWRS ARE EXPECTED TO DVLP WITH THE DISTURBANCE...BUT
RESTRICTION POSSIBILITY LKS TO BE LTD TO SOME MVFR VSBYS.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTION WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300501 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
101 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PORTION OF FORECAST IS RIGHT IN LINE. WILL UPDATE TEMPS.

WEAK BOUNDARY WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE AREA TODAY. STILL HAVING A TOUGH TIME GETTING A HANDLE ON HOW
MUCH PRECIPITATION THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BE WITH THE MAIN 50H LOW WHICH WILL TRAIL BEHIND THE
FRONT AND MOVE INTO NE OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE NEVER REALLY GETS LINED UP AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE 50H LOW...BUT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGS BACK WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A DRY LAYER UP
TO AROUND 5000 FT THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY...MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR
SHOWERS TO REACH THE GROUND. WILL LEAVE IN CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. IF THE LOW LEVELS ARE ABLE TO
SATURATE TODAY THEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WEAKENS THIS EVENING. THE 50H LOW OPENS UP AND
WHATS LEFT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DRIFTS INTO EASTERN PA.

UPPER LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY WILL SWING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
EXITING 50H LOW SO WILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN
THE FAR EAST FOR A PORTION OF THE EVENING HOURS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW ON THURSDAY...
PROVIDING SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL SEEING SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY. LATEST NAM IS SLOWING EVERYTHING DOWN...GFS IS THE MOST
PROGRESSIVE AND THE 12Z ECMWF IS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. FRIDAY DOES
APPEAR LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED WIDESPREAD RAIN.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT FROM THE QUIET WE HAVE EXPERIENCED
OVER THE LAST TWO OR SO WEEKS...TO A MORE ACTIVE AND COOLER
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE ONLY BLEMISH ON VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY IS
EXPECTED TO COME FROM FM SHALLOW PREDAWN FOG. SHOULD MID LVL
CLDINESS DVLP A FEW HRS QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED WITH THE ADVN OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHRTWV...THAT RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WL BE
PRECLUDED.

OTHERWISE...SCT SHWRS ARE EXPECTED TO DVLP WITH THE DISTURBANCE...BUT
RESTRICTION POSSIBILITY LKS TO BE LTD TO SOME MVFR VSBYS.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTION WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300501 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
101 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PORTION OF FORECAST IS RIGHT IN LINE. WILL UPDATE TEMPS.

WEAK BOUNDARY WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE AREA TODAY. STILL HAVING A TOUGH TIME GETTING A HANDLE ON HOW
MUCH PRECIPITATION THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BE WITH THE MAIN 50H LOW WHICH WILL TRAIL BEHIND THE
FRONT AND MOVE INTO NE OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE NEVER REALLY GETS LINED UP AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE 50H LOW...BUT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGS BACK WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A DRY LAYER UP
TO AROUND 5000 FT THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY...MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR
SHOWERS TO REACH THE GROUND. WILL LEAVE IN CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. IF THE LOW LEVELS ARE ABLE TO
SATURATE TODAY THEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WEAKENS THIS EVENING. THE 50H LOW OPENS UP AND
WHATS LEFT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DRIFTS INTO EASTERN PA.

UPPER LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY WILL SWING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
EXITING 50H LOW SO WILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN
THE FAR EAST FOR A PORTION OF THE EVENING HOURS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW ON THURSDAY...
PROVIDING SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL SEEING SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY. LATEST NAM IS SLOWING EVERYTHING DOWN...GFS IS THE MOST
PROGRESSIVE AND THE 12Z ECMWF IS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. FRIDAY DOES
APPEAR LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED WIDESPREAD RAIN.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT FROM THE QUIET WE HAVE EXPERIENCED
OVER THE LAST TWO OR SO WEEKS...TO A MORE ACTIVE AND COOLER
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE ONLY BLEMISH ON VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY IS
EXPECTED TO COME FROM FM SHALLOW PREDAWN FOG. SHOULD MID LVL
CLDINESS DVLP A FEW HRS QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED WITH THE ADVN OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHRTWV...THAT RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WL BE
PRECLUDED.

OTHERWISE...SCT SHWRS ARE EXPECTED TO DVLP WITH THE DISTURBANCE...BUT
RESTRICTION POSSIBILITY LKS TO BE LTD TO SOME MVFR VSBYS.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTION WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300501 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
101 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PORTION OF FORECAST IS RIGHT IN LINE. WILL UPDATE TEMPS.

WEAK BOUNDARY WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE AREA TODAY. STILL HAVING A TOUGH TIME GETTING A HANDLE ON HOW
MUCH PRECIPITATION THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BE WITH THE MAIN 50H LOW WHICH WILL TRAIL BEHIND THE
FRONT AND MOVE INTO NE OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE NEVER REALLY GETS LINED UP AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE 50H LOW...BUT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGS BACK WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A DRY LAYER UP
TO AROUND 5000 FT THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY...MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR
SHOWERS TO REACH THE GROUND. WILL LEAVE IN CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. IF THE LOW LEVELS ARE ABLE TO
SATURATE TODAY THEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WEAKENS THIS EVENING. THE 50H LOW OPENS UP AND
WHATS LEFT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DRIFTS INTO EASTERN PA.

UPPER LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY WILL SWING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
EXITING 50H LOW SO WILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN
THE FAR EAST FOR A PORTION OF THE EVENING HOURS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW ON THURSDAY...
PROVIDING SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL SEEING SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY. LATEST NAM IS SLOWING EVERYTHING DOWN...GFS IS THE MOST
PROGRESSIVE AND THE 12Z ECMWF IS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. FRIDAY DOES
APPEAR LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED WIDESPREAD RAIN.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT FROM THE QUIET WE HAVE EXPERIENCED
OVER THE LAST TWO OR SO WEEKS...TO A MORE ACTIVE AND COOLER
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE ONLY BLEMISH ON VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY IS
EXPECTED TO COME FROM FM SHALLOW PREDAWN FOG. SHOULD MID LVL
CLDINESS DVLP A FEW HRS QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED WITH THE ADVN OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHRTWV...THAT RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WL BE
PRECLUDED.

OTHERWISE...SCT SHWRS ARE EXPECTED TO DVLP WITH THE DISTURBANCE...BUT
RESTRICTION POSSIBILITY LKS TO BE LTD TO SOME MVFR VSBYS.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTION WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 300342
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1142 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL MOVE ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY WHILE A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND SLIDES SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION. THAT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OUT TO SEA WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
EASTERN CANADA RIDGING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES EARLY SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS NEXT SUNDAY. A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1140 PM UPDATE...RAISED POPS MD/PA BORDER AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN DE
AND EASTERN NJ THROUGH 07Z. TOO MUCH RAIN ON RADAR. THEN THE
CONCERN...SINCE DEWPOINTS ARE MUCH HIGHER THAN MODELED...HOW
EXTENSIVE THE FOG AT SUNRISE TUESDAY. COULD SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG
DEVELOP PORTIONS OF E PA WHERE IT CLEARS BY 09Z AND THEN SEPARATELY
OVER COASTAL SECTIONS.

TUESDAY...A QUIET MORNING EXPECTED...THEN SCT SHOWERS SHOULD
DEVELOP DURING THE MID-LATE AFTN E PA PER INCREASING INSTABILITY
ALOFT AS 500MB TEMPS COOL 2C LATE IN THE DAY STEEPENING MID LVL
LAPSE RATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY NIGHT...COOL POOL ALOFT SLIDES EWD ACROSS THE REGION WITH
500MB TEMPS NEAR -15-16C. BANDS OF SHOWERS MAY BE OCCURRING WITH
SUBTLE LIFT FROM BOTH WEAK BUT DEEP ELY MOIST WINDS NORTH OF I78 AND
THE BACKDOOR COOL FRONT CONVERGENCE ZONE DRIVEN BY THE STRENGTHENING
NE FLOW NE OF THE BACKDOOR CF.

ADDITIONALLY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE COOLER BL AIR NE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY FEW CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST FROM 12 HOURS
AGO. SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD BUT AMOUNTS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE ON THE RELATIVELY LIGHT SIDE. TEMPERATURES
FOR THE TIME PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EARLY IN THE
PERIOD, THEN TRENDING TO NEAR NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING WITH NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
RAIN. HIGHEST POPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND BEFORE A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE ON MONDAY, ONCE AGAIN BRINGING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION.

USE WPC GUIDANCE PREDOMINATELY FOR DAYS 4 THOUGH 7. FOR TUE NIGHT
INTO THU, USED A 50/50 BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ADJUSTED GFS
MAV MOS

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM MID LVL DECK OF CIGS
AOA 6000 FT WITH A CLEARING TREND EXPECTED E PA OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
SOUTH WIND WITH HIGHER THAN MODELED DEWPOINTS SHOULD FACILITATE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF 1-3 MI FOG PATCHES AND POTENTIAL BRIEF LIFR
CONDS IN ST/FOG NEAR 11Z BOTH VCNTY KRDG/KABE BUT ALSO ELSEWHERE
WHERE IT RAINED THIS PAST MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...AFTER ANY LEFTOVER IFR ST/FOG BURNS OFF BY
14Z....SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT BECOME BKN MID-LATE AFTN WITH A
POSSIBLE SHOWER VCNTY KRDG/KABE. LIGHT SOUTH WIND TURNING E.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WIND BECOMING NE AT 5-15 KT AND A DECK OF IFR
ST/FOG SHOULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
MOVING SW FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CHC OF SHOWERS...MAINLY N OF
KPHL.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS
KABE/KRDG/KTTN DURING THE MORNING. E/NE WINDS GUST 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR FOG EARLY OTHERWISE VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AOA 4000 FT. N-NW WIND GUST 15 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS THIS EVENING ARE AROUND TWO FEET ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT AS WELL. TOMORROW WE WILL GRADUALLY SEE
SEAS BUILD AND WINDS INCREASE OUT OF NORTHEAST. SEAS MAY REACH FOUR
FEET TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS AS WELL.
CONDITIONS BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR THIS PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT...NE WIND 10-20 KT WITH ATLC SEAS NEAR 4 FT. NO HEADLINE
ANTICIPATED ATTM.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NE FLOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA ALONG THE NNJ COAST AND THEN
POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD TO THE ENTIRE ATLC COAST LATER WEDNESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS ABOVE 22 KT
WITH ANY SCA HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY. HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING
ANY FORMAL HEADLINES ON THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS CONDITIONS WILL
JUST MEET LOWER END SCA CRITERIA AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF SCA SEAS ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE
SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.

FRIDAY...WIND BECOMING SOUTH BY NIGHT. SMALL CHANCE OF AN SCA AT
NIGHT.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE,
THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...DRAG 1141
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...DRAG/SZATKOWSKI
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/SZATKOWSKI/HEAVENER






000
FXUS61 KPHI 300305
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1105 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL MOVE ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY WHILE A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND SLIDES SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION. THAT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OUT TO SEA WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
EASTERN CANADA RIDGING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES EARLY SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS NEXT SUNDAY. A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1040 PM UPDATE...RAISED POPS ON PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA AND
COASTAL NJ THROUGH ABOUT 07Z AND LOWERED POPS NE PA AND NW NJ.
TOO MUCH RAIN ON RADAR. THEN THE CONCERN...SINCE DEWPOINTS ARE
MUCH HIGHER THAN MODELED...HOW EXTENSIVE THE FOG AT SUNRISE
TUESDAY. COULD SEE PATCH DENSE DEVELOP PORTIONS OF E PA WHERE IT
CLEARS BY 09Z AND THEN SEPARATELY OVER COASTAL SECTIONS.

TUESDAY...A QUIET MORNING EXPECTED...THEN SCT SHOWERS SHOULD
DEVELOP DURING THE MID-LATE AFTN E PA PER INCREASING INSTABILITY
ALOFT AS 500MB TEMPS COOL 2C LATE IN THE DAY STEEPENING MID LVL
LAPSE RATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY NIGHT...COOL POOL ALOFT SLIDES EWD ACROSS THE REGION WITH
500MB TEMPS NEAR -15-16C. BANDS OF SHOWERS MAY BE OCCURRING WITH
SUBTLE LIFT FROM BOTH WEAK ELY WINDS NORTH OF I78 AND THE BACKDOOR
COOL FRONT CONVERGENCE ZONE DRIVEN BY THE STRENGTHENING NE FLOW NE
OF THE BACKDOOR CF.

ADDITIONALLY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE COOLER BL AIR NE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY FEW CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST FROM 12 HOURS
AGO. SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD BUT AMOUNTS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE ON THE RELATIVELY LIGHT SIDE. TEMPERATURES
FOR THE TIME PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EARLY IN THE
PERIOD, THEN TRENDING TO NEAR NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING WITH NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
RAIN. HIGHEST POPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND BEFORE A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE ON MONDAY, ONCE AGAIN BRINGING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION.

USE WPC GUIDANCE PREDOMINATELY FOR DAYS 4 THOUGH 7. FOR TUE NIGHT
INTO THU, USED A 50/50 BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ADJUSTED GFS
MAV MOS

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM MID LVL DECK OF CIGS
AOA 6000 FT WITH A CLEARING TREND EXPECTED E PA OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
SOUTH WIND WITH HIGHER THAN MODELED DEWPOINTS SHOULD FACILITATE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF 1-3 MI FOG PATCHES AND POTENTIAL BRIEF LIFR
CONDS BOTH VCNTY KRDG/KABE BUT ALSO ELSEWHERE WHERE IT RAINED
THIS PAST MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...AFTER ANY LEFTOVER IFR ST/FOG BURNS OFF BY
14Z....SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT BECOME BKN MID-LATE AFTN WITH A
POSSIBLE SHOWER VCNTY KRDG/KABE. LIGHT SOUTH WIND TURNING E.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WIND BECOMING NE AT 5-15 KT AND A DECK OF IFR
ST/FOG SHOULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
MOVING SW FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CHC OF SHOWERS...MAINLY N OF
KPHL.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS
KABE/KRDG/KTTN DURING THE MORNING. E/NE WINDS GUST 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR FOG EARLY OTHERWISE VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AOA 4000 FT. N-NW WIND GUST 15 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS THIS EVENING ARE AROUND TWO FEET ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT AS WELL. TOMORROW WE WILL GRADUALLY SEE
SEAS BUILD AND WINDS INCREASE OUT OF NORTHEAST. SEAS MAY REACH FOUR
FEET TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS AS WELL.
CONDITIONS BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR THIS PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT...NE WIND 10-20 KT WITH ATLC SEAS NEAR 4 FT. NO HEADLINE
ANTICIPATED ATTM.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NE FLOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA ALONG THE NNJ COAST AND THEN
POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD TO THE ENTIRE ATLC COAST LATER WEDNESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS ABOVE 22 KT
WITH ANY SCA HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY. HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING
ANY FORMAL HEADLINES ON THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS CONDITIONS WILL
JUST MEET LOWER END SCA CRITERIA AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF SCA SEAS ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE
SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.

FRIDAY...WIND BECOMING SOUTH BY NIGHT. SMALL CHANCE OF AN SCA AT
NIGHT.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE,
THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/SZATKOWSKI 1104
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GAINES/HEAVENER/JOHNSON 1104
SHORT TERM...DRAG/GAINES/HEAVENER 1104
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/SZATKOWSKI/HEAVENER/JOHNSON 1104
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/SZATKOWSKI/HEAVENER 1104






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300157
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
957 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FA COVERED IN CLDNS THIS EVE...AND AN AREA OF -RA/DZ HAS SLOWED ITS
PROGRESS EWD...RESIDING FROM THE INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN TO THE ERN
SHORE AS OF 10 PM. HIGHEST POPS (30-50%) TO RMN OVER
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS THROUGH MDNGT...BEFORE SHIFTING E LATER ON.
TROUGH OF LO PRES SFC-ALOFT WILL BE SLO TO EXIT THE CST AFT
MDNGT...BRINGING A GRADUAL END OF PCPN FM W-E. ALSO SLOWED ANY
CLEARING BEHIND THIS SYS AFT MDNGT...AND ADDED AREAS OF FG FOR THE
PIEDMONT...AND PATCHY FG I-95 CORRIDOR TO THE COASTAL PLAIN. LOW
TEMPS FM THE M/U50S NW TO 60S CSTL SE VA/NE NC. ADDITIONAL QPF
MNLY AVGG 1/10TH INCH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR TUE...FA TO BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING TROUGH SFC-ALOFT
OFFSHORE (SHUNTING PRECIP EVENTUALLY WELL E AND S OF THE FA BY
MIDDAY/AFTN HRS)...AND A STRONGER UPR LVL TROUGH PUSHING SE FROM
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. NOT MUCH FORCING WILL REMAIN ACRS THE FA
(EARLY) TUE MRNG. HAVE POPS AOB 14% MOST PLACES...THOUGH MAINTAINING
JUST A SLGT CHC POP ACRS FA SE VA/CSTL NE NC. XPCG P/MSNY CONDS N
AND CNTRL...TO P/MCLDY SE...W/ HI TEMPS MNLY 75 TO 80F.

UPR LVL LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH NEW ENG TUE NGT THROUGH WED...PUSHING
ASSOCIATED TROUGH SFC-ALOFT ACRS FA W/ BKN CLDNS AND MNLY SLGT CHC
POPS (AND MNLY N AND E PORTIONS). OTRW VRB CLDS TO PCLDY. LO TEMPS
TUE NGT FM THE M50S INLAND TO L60S CSTL SE VA/NE NC. HI TEMPS WED
FM THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHORE...TO 75 TO 80F ELSW.

HI PRES FM NEW ENG BUILDS SWWD INTO THE FA WED NGT INTO
THU...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PD OF ENE WNDS. MDLS SUGGEST THAT
INLAND PLACES HAVE LO PROB FOR ISOLD SHRAS (THU) ALONG W/ VRB
CLDS. MNLY PCLDY TWD THE CST. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM THE M50S TO
L60S. HI TEMPS THU FM THE M/U70S N...TO ARND 80F S (THOUGH L70S
XPCD RIGHT AT THE IMMEDIATE CST).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A
CONTINUATION OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM.
FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

MODELS ARE RATHER CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT TO MOVE
INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
HAVE 50 PERCENT CHC FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA BEGINNING WESTERN
PORTIONS FRIDAY EVENING AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING. WENT NO HIGHER THAN 50 PERCENT BUT
AS CONFIDENCE IN THE EVENT INCREASES...FUTURE ISSUANCES WILL
PROBABLY HAVE LIKELY POPS. CURRENTLY WPC HAS ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH QPF WITH THE MAIN PART OF THE PCPN PROBABLY LASTING ABOUT SIX
HOURS AT ANY LOCATION.

FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 INLAND AND MID 70S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS IN THE
UPR 60S TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY EXCEPT ON
SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY MID TO UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE UPR
50S TO LWR 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING LOWER TO THE UPR 40S TO
MID 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN FOR THE TAF SITES EAST OF
KRIC. THE WEAK TROF IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE COAST BETWEEN 08Z-
13Z TUES WITH DRY WX RETURNING IN ITS WAKE. CLEARING AND MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LEAD TO IFR FOG DEVELOPING AT KRIC AROUND 08Z
AND CLOSER TO DAYBREAK AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES EXPECT KORF.

DRY WX IS THEN INDICATED FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. BUT...WILL
NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE EACH
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS ARE PROVIDING QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WHICH WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. N/NE WINDS INCREASE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AND SEAS MAY BUILD TO NEAR 5 FEET EARLY WEDNESDAY IN
THE OUTER PORTION OF THE COASTAL ZONES. WINDS DIMINISH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY BUT WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB/AJZ
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...JDM/DAP
MARINE...LSA




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300157
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
957 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FA COVERED IN CLDNS THIS EVE...AND AN AREA OF -RA/DZ HAS SLOWED ITS
PROGRESS EWD...RESIDING FROM THE INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN TO THE ERN
SHORE AS OF 10 PM. HIGHEST POPS (30-50%) TO RMN OVER
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS THROUGH MDNGT...BEFORE SHIFTING E LATER ON.
TROUGH OF LO PRES SFC-ALOFT WILL BE SLO TO EXIT THE CST AFT
MDNGT...BRINGING A GRADUAL END OF PCPN FM W-E. ALSO SLOWED ANY
CLEARING BEHIND THIS SYS AFT MDNGT...AND ADDED AREAS OF FG FOR THE
PIEDMONT...AND PATCHY FG I-95 CORRIDOR TO THE COASTAL PLAIN. LOW
TEMPS FM THE M/U50S NW TO 60S CSTL SE VA/NE NC. ADDITIONAL QPF
MNLY AVGG 1/10TH INCH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR TUE...FA TO BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING TROUGH SFC-ALOFT
OFFSHORE (SHUNTING PRECIP EVENTUALLY WELL E AND S OF THE FA BY
MIDDAY/AFTN HRS)...AND A STRONGER UPR LVL TROUGH PUSHING SE FROM
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. NOT MUCH FORCING WILL REMAIN ACRS THE FA
(EARLY) TUE MRNG. HAVE POPS AOB 14% MOST PLACES...THOUGH MAINTAINING
JUST A SLGT CHC POP ACRS FA SE VA/CSTL NE NC. XPCG P/MSNY CONDS N
AND CNTRL...TO P/MCLDY SE...W/ HI TEMPS MNLY 75 TO 80F.

UPR LVL LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH NEW ENG TUE NGT THROUGH WED...PUSHING
ASSOCIATED TROUGH SFC-ALOFT ACRS FA W/ BKN CLDNS AND MNLY SLGT CHC
POPS (AND MNLY N AND E PORTIONS). OTRW VRB CLDS TO PCLDY. LO TEMPS
TUE NGT FM THE M50S INLAND TO L60S CSTL SE VA/NE NC. HI TEMPS WED
FM THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHORE...TO 75 TO 80F ELSW.

HI PRES FM NEW ENG BUILDS SWWD INTO THE FA WED NGT INTO
THU...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PD OF ENE WNDS. MDLS SUGGEST THAT
INLAND PLACES HAVE LO PROB FOR ISOLD SHRAS (THU) ALONG W/ VRB
CLDS. MNLY PCLDY TWD THE CST. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM THE M50S TO
L60S. HI TEMPS THU FM THE M/U70S N...TO ARND 80F S (THOUGH L70S
XPCD RIGHT AT THE IMMEDIATE CST).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A
CONTINUATION OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM.
FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

MODELS ARE RATHER CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT TO MOVE
INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
HAVE 50 PERCENT CHC FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA BEGINNING WESTERN
PORTIONS FRIDAY EVENING AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING. WENT NO HIGHER THAN 50 PERCENT BUT
AS CONFIDENCE IN THE EVENT INCREASES...FUTURE ISSUANCES WILL
PROBABLY HAVE LIKELY POPS. CURRENTLY WPC HAS ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH QPF WITH THE MAIN PART OF THE PCPN PROBABLY LASTING ABOUT SIX
HOURS AT ANY LOCATION.

FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 INLAND AND MID 70S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS IN THE
UPR 60S TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY EXCEPT ON
SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY MID TO UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE UPR
50S TO LWR 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING LOWER TO THE UPR 40S TO
MID 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN FOR THE TAF SITES EAST OF
KRIC. THE WEAK TROF IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE COAST BETWEEN 08Z-
13Z TUES WITH DRY WX RETURNING IN ITS WAKE. CLEARING AND MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LEAD TO IFR FOG DEVELOPING AT KRIC AROUND 08Z
AND CLOSER TO DAYBREAK AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES EXPECT KORF.

DRY WX IS THEN INDICATED FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. BUT...WILL
NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE EACH
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS ARE PROVIDING QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WHICH WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. N/NE WINDS INCREASE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AND SEAS MAY BUILD TO NEAR 5 FEET EARLY WEDNESDAY IN
THE OUTER PORTION OF THE COASTAL ZONES. WINDS DIMINISH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY BUT WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB/AJZ
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...JDM/DAP
MARINE...LSA




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300157
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
957 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FA COVERED IN CLDNS THIS EVE...AND AN AREA OF -RA/DZ HAS SLOWED ITS
PROGRESS EWD...RESIDING FROM THE INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN TO THE ERN
SHORE AS OF 10 PM. HIGHEST POPS (30-50%) TO RMN OVER
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS THROUGH MDNGT...BEFORE SHIFTING E LATER ON.
TROUGH OF LO PRES SFC-ALOFT WILL BE SLO TO EXIT THE CST AFT
MDNGT...BRINGING A GRADUAL END OF PCPN FM W-E. ALSO SLOWED ANY
CLEARING BEHIND THIS SYS AFT MDNGT...AND ADDED AREAS OF FG FOR THE
PIEDMONT...AND PATCHY FG I-95 CORRIDOR TO THE COASTAL PLAIN. LOW
TEMPS FM THE M/U50S NW TO 60S CSTL SE VA/NE NC. ADDITIONAL QPF
MNLY AVGG 1/10TH INCH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR TUE...FA TO BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING TROUGH SFC-ALOFT
OFFSHORE (SHUNTING PRECIP EVENTUALLY WELL E AND S OF THE FA BY
MIDDAY/AFTN HRS)...AND A STRONGER UPR LVL TROUGH PUSHING SE FROM
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. NOT MUCH FORCING WILL REMAIN ACRS THE FA
(EARLY) TUE MRNG. HAVE POPS AOB 14% MOST PLACES...THOUGH MAINTAINING
JUST A SLGT CHC POP ACRS FA SE VA/CSTL NE NC. XPCG P/MSNY CONDS N
AND CNTRL...TO P/MCLDY SE...W/ HI TEMPS MNLY 75 TO 80F.

UPR LVL LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH NEW ENG TUE NGT THROUGH WED...PUSHING
ASSOCIATED TROUGH SFC-ALOFT ACRS FA W/ BKN CLDNS AND MNLY SLGT CHC
POPS (AND MNLY N AND E PORTIONS). OTRW VRB CLDS TO PCLDY. LO TEMPS
TUE NGT FM THE M50S INLAND TO L60S CSTL SE VA/NE NC. HI TEMPS WED
FM THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHORE...TO 75 TO 80F ELSW.

HI PRES FM NEW ENG BUILDS SWWD INTO THE FA WED NGT INTO
THU...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PD OF ENE WNDS. MDLS SUGGEST THAT
INLAND PLACES HAVE LO PROB FOR ISOLD SHRAS (THU) ALONG W/ VRB
CLDS. MNLY PCLDY TWD THE CST. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM THE M50S TO
L60S. HI TEMPS THU FM THE M/U70S N...TO ARND 80F S (THOUGH L70S
XPCD RIGHT AT THE IMMEDIATE CST).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A
CONTINUATION OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM.
FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

MODELS ARE RATHER CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT TO MOVE
INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
HAVE 50 PERCENT CHC FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA BEGINNING WESTERN
PORTIONS FRIDAY EVENING AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING. WENT NO HIGHER THAN 50 PERCENT BUT
AS CONFIDENCE IN THE EVENT INCREASES...FUTURE ISSUANCES WILL
PROBABLY HAVE LIKELY POPS. CURRENTLY WPC HAS ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH QPF WITH THE MAIN PART OF THE PCPN PROBABLY LASTING ABOUT SIX
HOURS AT ANY LOCATION.

FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 INLAND AND MID 70S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS IN THE
UPR 60S TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY EXCEPT ON
SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY MID TO UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE UPR
50S TO LWR 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING LOWER TO THE UPR 40S TO
MID 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN FOR THE TAF SITES EAST OF
KRIC. THE WEAK TROF IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE COAST BETWEEN 08Z-
13Z TUES WITH DRY WX RETURNING IN ITS WAKE. CLEARING AND MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LEAD TO IFR FOG DEVELOPING AT KRIC AROUND 08Z
AND CLOSER TO DAYBREAK AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES EXPECT KORF.

DRY WX IS THEN INDICATED FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. BUT...WILL
NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE EACH
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS ARE PROVIDING QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WHICH WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. N/NE WINDS INCREASE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AND SEAS MAY BUILD TO NEAR 5 FEET EARLY WEDNESDAY IN
THE OUTER PORTION OF THE COASTAL ZONES. WINDS DIMINISH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY BUT WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB/AJZ
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...JDM/DAP
MARINE...LSA




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300157
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
957 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FA COVERED IN CLDNS THIS EVE...AND AN AREA OF -RA/DZ HAS SLOWED ITS
PROGRESS EWD...RESIDING FROM THE INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN TO THE ERN
SHORE AS OF 10 PM. HIGHEST POPS (30-50%) TO RMN OVER
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS THROUGH MDNGT...BEFORE SHIFTING E LATER ON.
TROUGH OF LO PRES SFC-ALOFT WILL BE SLO TO EXIT THE CST AFT
MDNGT...BRINGING A GRADUAL END OF PCPN FM W-E. ALSO SLOWED ANY
CLEARING BEHIND THIS SYS AFT MDNGT...AND ADDED AREAS OF FG FOR THE
PIEDMONT...AND PATCHY FG I-95 CORRIDOR TO THE COASTAL PLAIN. LOW
TEMPS FM THE M/U50S NW TO 60S CSTL SE VA/NE NC. ADDITIONAL QPF
MNLY AVGG 1/10TH INCH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR TUE...FA TO BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING TROUGH SFC-ALOFT
OFFSHORE (SHUNTING PRECIP EVENTUALLY WELL E AND S OF THE FA BY
MIDDAY/AFTN HRS)...AND A STRONGER UPR LVL TROUGH PUSHING SE FROM
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. NOT MUCH FORCING WILL REMAIN ACRS THE FA
(EARLY) TUE MRNG. HAVE POPS AOB 14% MOST PLACES...THOUGH MAINTAINING
JUST A SLGT CHC POP ACRS FA SE VA/CSTL NE NC. XPCG P/MSNY CONDS N
AND CNTRL...TO P/MCLDY SE...W/ HI TEMPS MNLY 75 TO 80F.

UPR LVL LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH NEW ENG TUE NGT THROUGH WED...PUSHING
ASSOCIATED TROUGH SFC-ALOFT ACRS FA W/ BKN CLDNS AND MNLY SLGT CHC
POPS (AND MNLY N AND E PORTIONS). OTRW VRB CLDS TO PCLDY. LO TEMPS
TUE NGT FM THE M50S INLAND TO L60S CSTL SE VA/NE NC. HI TEMPS WED
FM THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHORE...TO 75 TO 80F ELSW.

HI PRES FM NEW ENG BUILDS SWWD INTO THE FA WED NGT INTO
THU...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PD OF ENE WNDS. MDLS SUGGEST THAT
INLAND PLACES HAVE LO PROB FOR ISOLD SHRAS (THU) ALONG W/ VRB
CLDS. MNLY PCLDY TWD THE CST. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM THE M50S TO
L60S. HI TEMPS THU FM THE M/U70S N...TO ARND 80F S (THOUGH L70S
XPCD RIGHT AT THE IMMEDIATE CST).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A
CONTINUATION OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM.
FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

MODELS ARE RATHER CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT TO MOVE
INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
HAVE 50 PERCENT CHC FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA BEGINNING WESTERN
PORTIONS FRIDAY EVENING AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING. WENT NO HIGHER THAN 50 PERCENT BUT
AS CONFIDENCE IN THE EVENT INCREASES...FUTURE ISSUANCES WILL
PROBABLY HAVE LIKELY POPS. CURRENTLY WPC HAS ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH QPF WITH THE MAIN PART OF THE PCPN PROBABLY LASTING ABOUT SIX
HOURS AT ANY LOCATION.

FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 INLAND AND MID 70S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS IN THE
UPR 60S TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY EXCEPT ON
SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY MID TO UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE UPR
50S TO LWR 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING LOWER TO THE UPR 40S TO
MID 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN FOR THE TAF SITES EAST OF
KRIC. THE WEAK TROF IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE COAST BETWEEN 08Z-
13Z TUES WITH DRY WX RETURNING IN ITS WAKE. CLEARING AND MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LEAD TO IFR FOG DEVELOPING AT KRIC AROUND 08Z
AND CLOSER TO DAYBREAK AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES EXPECT KORF.

DRY WX IS THEN INDICATED FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. BUT...WILL
NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE EACH
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS ARE PROVIDING QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WHICH WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. N/NE WINDS INCREASE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AND SEAS MAY BUILD TO NEAR 5 FEET EARLY WEDNESDAY IN
THE OUTER PORTION OF THE COASTAL ZONES. WINDS DIMINISH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY BUT WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB/AJZ
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...JDM/DAP
MARINE...LSA




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300145
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
945 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND TEMPS BASED ON STLT TRENDS/SFC OBS FOR THE
LT EVE UPDT. PREVIOUS DISC...DRY WEA IS EXPD TNGT AS A WK MID/UPR
TROF EXITS. THE NXT ADVNG SHRTWV WL MOVE ACRS THE GT LKS RGN TUE
WITH SCT SHWRS. LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND THE RECENT DRY PATTERN
SHOULD HELP LMT PCPN COVG...SO MAINTAINED ONLY CHC POPS ATTM.
LATEST MDL PROGS SHOW VRY LTL INSTBY SO REMOVED TSTM MENTION FM
THE FCST. TEMPS WL CONT A FEW DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS MORE OR LESS AGREE ON FRONTAL TIMING TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
BOUNDARY NEAR OR THROUGH PIT BY 00Z. WITH CONTINUING FROPA...WILL
KEEP FADING CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH THE LIMITED
MOISTURE...LIKELY TOO LITTLE TO TAKE MUCH ADVANTAGE OF THE ARRIVAL
OF UPPER CLOSED LOW DURING THE NIGHT. HAVE DRY POPS BY SUNRISE ON
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE SOME PATCHES OF LOW CLOUD FORM UP DURING THE
NIGHT...WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP. BLENDED MOS GUIDANCE
INTO PREVIOUS MIN TEMP GRID TO NUDGE VALUES UP A DEGREE OR TWO.

AS HINTED AT BY PREVIOUS SHIFT...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED A MINIMAL POP
FOR SHRA TO THE EASTERN RIDGES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  UPPER LOW
ALONG WITH ITS COLD POOL ALOFT WILL STILL BE EXITING DURING TIME OF
PEAK HEATING.  WHILE THERE IS ENOUGH MIDLEVEL WARM AIR TO PREVENT
SHRA FORMATION FROM PIT ON WEST...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE CAPE PROFILE FOR LOCATIONS LIKE DUJ AND LBE. TO THE
WEST...ANY MORNING LOW CLOUDS WOULD LIFT INTO SCT CU ONLY.  USED NAM
H850 TEMPS TO CONSTRUCT MAX TEMP GRID...ENDING UP WITH VALUES CLOSE
TO MOS.

ONCE UPPER LOW EXITS...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND H500 RIDGING
BUILD IN...GIVING US DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
MAY SEE A FEW MORE CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN RIDGES THAN THE WEST
GIVEN SOME LIGHT EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW.  TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ECMWF COMING A LITTLE MORE IN LINE WITH GFS AND ENSEMBLES ON TIMING
OF MORE SIGNIFICANT FROPA ON FRIDAY.  GIVEN INCREASED
CONFIDENCE...BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY AND ALSO INSERTED A CHANCE OF
THUNDER WITH THE VIGOROUS NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. SOME DISAGREEMENT
THEREAFTER WHETHER ANOTHER CLOSED LOW SINKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
WILL RIDE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FROM SATURDAY ON FOR NOW. IN
ANY CASE...MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE ONLY BLEMISH ON VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY IS
EXPECTED TO COME FROM FM SHALLOW PREDAWN FOG. SHOULD MID LVL
CLDINESS DVLP A FEW HRS QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED WITH THE ADVN OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHRTWV...THAT RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WL BE
PRECLUDED.

OTHERWISE...SCT SHWRS ARE EXPECTED TO DVLP WITH THE DISTURBANCE...BUT
RESTRICTION POSSIBILITY LKS TO BE LTD TO SOME MVFR VSBYS.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTION WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/15





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300145
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
945 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND TEMPS BASED ON STLT TRENDS/SFC OBS FOR THE
LT EVE UPDT. PREVIOUS DISC...DRY WEA IS EXPD TNGT AS A WK MID/UPR
TROF EXITS. THE NXT ADVNG SHRTWV WL MOVE ACRS THE GT LKS RGN TUE
WITH SCT SHWRS. LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND THE RECENT DRY PATTERN
SHOULD HELP LMT PCPN COVG...SO MAINTAINED ONLY CHC POPS ATTM.
LATEST MDL PROGS SHOW VRY LTL INSTBY SO REMOVED TSTM MENTION FM
THE FCST. TEMPS WL CONT A FEW DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS MORE OR LESS AGREE ON FRONTAL TIMING TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
BOUNDARY NEAR OR THROUGH PIT BY 00Z. WITH CONTINUING FROPA...WILL
KEEP FADING CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH THE LIMITED
MOISTURE...LIKELY TOO LITTLE TO TAKE MUCH ADVANTAGE OF THE ARRIVAL
OF UPPER CLOSED LOW DURING THE NIGHT. HAVE DRY POPS BY SUNRISE ON
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE SOME PATCHES OF LOW CLOUD FORM UP DURING THE
NIGHT...WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP. BLENDED MOS GUIDANCE
INTO PREVIOUS MIN TEMP GRID TO NUDGE VALUES UP A DEGREE OR TWO.

AS HINTED AT BY PREVIOUS SHIFT...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED A MINIMAL POP
FOR SHRA TO THE EASTERN RIDGES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  UPPER LOW
ALONG WITH ITS COLD POOL ALOFT WILL STILL BE EXITING DURING TIME OF
PEAK HEATING.  WHILE THERE IS ENOUGH MIDLEVEL WARM AIR TO PREVENT
SHRA FORMATION FROM PIT ON WEST...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE CAPE PROFILE FOR LOCATIONS LIKE DUJ AND LBE. TO THE
WEST...ANY MORNING LOW CLOUDS WOULD LIFT INTO SCT CU ONLY.  USED NAM
H850 TEMPS TO CONSTRUCT MAX TEMP GRID...ENDING UP WITH VALUES CLOSE
TO MOS.

ONCE UPPER LOW EXITS...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND H500 RIDGING
BUILD IN...GIVING US DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
MAY SEE A FEW MORE CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN RIDGES THAN THE WEST
GIVEN SOME LIGHT EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW.  TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ECMWF COMING A LITTLE MORE IN LINE WITH GFS AND ENSEMBLES ON TIMING
OF MORE SIGNIFICANT FROPA ON FRIDAY.  GIVEN INCREASED
CONFIDENCE...BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY AND ALSO INSERTED A CHANCE OF
THUNDER WITH THE VIGOROUS NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. SOME DISAGREEMENT
THEREAFTER WHETHER ANOTHER CLOSED LOW SINKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
WILL RIDE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FROM SATURDAY ON FOR NOW. IN
ANY CASE...MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE ONLY BLEMISH ON VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY IS
EXPECTED TO COME FROM FM SHALLOW PREDAWN FOG. SHOULD MID LVL
CLDINESS DVLP A FEW HRS QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED WITH THE ADVN OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHRTWV...THAT RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WL BE
PRECLUDED.

OTHERWISE...SCT SHWRS ARE EXPECTED TO DVLP WITH THE DISTURBANCE...BUT
RESTRICTION POSSIBILITY LKS TO BE LTD TO SOME MVFR VSBYS.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTION WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/15






000
FXUS61 KPHI 300130
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
930 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL MOVE
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION. THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OUT TO
SEA WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA RIDGING DOWN
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS NEXT SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...THE BROAD AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTHEAST OVER EASTERN NJ. ANOTHER BAND IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
SOUTHERN DELMARVA. ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
HOWEVER, DO NOT EXPECT THE PRECIP TO LAST TOO MUCH PAST 06Z AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST OF THE
REGION AT THAT TIME. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TOO LOW FOR DEW
POINTS. ADJUSTED THE DEW POINTS UP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ALSO, SINCE THE CLEARING LINE OF HIGH CLOUDS IS JUST WEST OF THE
CWA, EXPANDED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FG ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER, STILL UNCERTAIN HOW LOW
VISIBILITIES WILL GO SINCE WINDS REMAIN AROUND 5 MPH AND MOSTLY
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT THIS HOUR.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH A INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR SOUTH. SOUNDINGS
HAVE SHOWN ALL DAY A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-
LEVELS. EVEN THOUGH THE RADAR SHOWS SOME PRECIPITATION MOST OF IT
WILL BE VIRGA. HOWEVER THE RAP AND HRRR BRING IN SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (UNDER .05 INCHES) THIS EVENING ACROSS DELMARVA AND
SOUTH NJ. DID INCLUDE THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER
FOR THESE AREAS. KEPT MANY WEATHER ELEMENTS INCLUDING LOWS NEAR
THE MET/MAV. THE MAV HAS BEEN TO DRY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALL
DAY AND DID NOT INCORPORATE THIS SET FOR DEWPOINTS. WE MAY SEE
SOME CLEARING AS WELL BY SUNRISE PERHAPS ALLOWING FOR A FEW HOUR
WINDOW FOR THE FORMATION OF PATCHY FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE WELL EAST OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE QUICKLY ON ITS HEALS WITH AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL SUPPORT MAY ALLOW FOR
THE GENERATION OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON FOCUSED NW
OF PHL. FOR TEMPERATURES WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE MAV/MET
GUIDANCE SETS. ECMWF 925 MB TEMPERATURES WOULD YIELD TO SURFACE
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80`S FOR PHL. HOWEVER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS KEPT HIGHS IN THE 70`S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY FEW CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST FROM 12 HOURS
AGO. SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD BUT AMOUNTS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE ON THE RELATIVELY LIGHT SIDE. TEMPERATURES
FOR THE TIME PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EARLY IN THE
PERIOD, THEN TRENDING TO NEAR NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING WITH NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
RAIN. HIGHEST POPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND BEFORE A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE ON MONDAY, ONCE AGAIN BRINGING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION.

USE WPC GUIDANCE PREDOMINATELY FOR DAYS 4 THOUGH 7. FOR TUE NIGHT
INTO THU, USED A 50/50 BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ADJUSTED GFS
MAV MOS

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...A BROAD AREA OF BKN100 CONTINUES TO STREAM OVER
THE REGION. HOWEVER, THE CLEARING LINE IS NOT TOO FAR WEST OF KRDG
AND KABE. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
06Z. THERE REMAINS A SMALL THREAT OF BR DEVELOPMENT FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION. AT THIS TIME, THE HIGHEST THREAT APPEARS TO BE KRDG
AND KMIV. HOWEVER, WITH WINDS STILL WITH A SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT, AND CLOUDS HANGING ON THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z, DO NOT
EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO GET BELOW MVFR AT THIS TIME.

ANY BR SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 15Z TUESDAY LEAVING FEW TO SCT050, SO ANOTHER
VFR DAY TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING FROM SOUTHERLY TO EASTERLY
TO NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY, BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10KT. THE
NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT RDG AND ABE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS
KABE/KRDG/KTTN DURING THE MORNING. E/NE WINDS GUST 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR FOG EARLY OTHERWISE VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AOA 4000 FT. N-NW WIND GUST 15 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS THIS EVENING ARE AROUND TWO FEET ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT AS WELL. TOMORROW WE WILL GRADUALLY SEE
SEAS BUILD AND WINDS INCREASE OUT OF NORTHEAST. SEAS MAY REACH FOUR
FEET TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS AS WELL.
CONDITIONS BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR THIS PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NE FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA ALONG THE NNJ COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD TO THE ENTIRE ATLC COAST LATER
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS
ABOVE 22 KT WITH ANY SCA HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY. HAVE HELD OFF
ON ISSUING ANY FORMAL HEADLINES ON THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS
CONDITIONS WILL JUST MEET LOWER END SCA CRITERIA AND CONFIDENCE IS
NOT YET HIGH.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF SCA SEAS ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE
SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.

FRIDAY...WIND BECOMING SOUTH BY NIGHT. SMALL CHANCE OF AN SCA AT
NIGHT.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE,
THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...GAINES/HEAVENER/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GAINES/HEAVENER
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...GAINES/SZATKOWSKI/HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...GAINES/SZATKOWSKI/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPHI 300130
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
930 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL MOVE
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION. THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OUT TO
SEA WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA RIDGING DOWN
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS NEXT SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...THE BROAD AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTHEAST OVER EASTERN NJ. ANOTHER BAND IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
SOUTHERN DELMARVA. ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
HOWEVER, DO NOT EXPECT THE PRECIP TO LAST TOO MUCH PAST 06Z AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST OF THE
REGION AT THAT TIME. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TOO LOW FOR DEW
POINTS. ADJUSTED THE DEW POINTS UP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ALSO, SINCE THE CLEARING LINE OF HIGH CLOUDS IS JUST WEST OF THE
CWA, EXPANDED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FG ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER, STILL UNCERTAIN HOW LOW
VISIBILITIES WILL GO SINCE WINDS REMAIN AROUND 5 MPH AND MOSTLY
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT THIS HOUR.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH A INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR SOUTH. SOUNDINGS
HAVE SHOWN ALL DAY A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-
LEVELS. EVEN THOUGH THE RADAR SHOWS SOME PRECIPITATION MOST OF IT
WILL BE VIRGA. HOWEVER THE RAP AND HRRR BRING IN SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (UNDER .05 INCHES) THIS EVENING ACROSS DELMARVA AND
SOUTH NJ. DID INCLUDE THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER
FOR THESE AREAS. KEPT MANY WEATHER ELEMENTS INCLUDING LOWS NEAR
THE MET/MAV. THE MAV HAS BEEN TO DRY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALL
DAY AND DID NOT INCORPORATE THIS SET FOR DEWPOINTS. WE MAY SEE
SOME CLEARING AS WELL BY SUNRISE PERHAPS ALLOWING FOR A FEW HOUR
WINDOW FOR THE FORMATION OF PATCHY FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE WELL EAST OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE QUICKLY ON ITS HEALS WITH AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL SUPPORT MAY ALLOW FOR
THE GENERATION OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON FOCUSED NW
OF PHL. FOR TEMPERATURES WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE MAV/MET
GUIDANCE SETS. ECMWF 925 MB TEMPERATURES WOULD YIELD TO SURFACE
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80`S FOR PHL. HOWEVER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS KEPT HIGHS IN THE 70`S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY FEW CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST FROM 12 HOURS
AGO. SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD BUT AMOUNTS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE ON THE RELATIVELY LIGHT SIDE. TEMPERATURES
FOR THE TIME PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EARLY IN THE
PERIOD, THEN TRENDING TO NEAR NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING WITH NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
RAIN. HIGHEST POPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND BEFORE A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE ON MONDAY, ONCE AGAIN BRINGING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION.

USE WPC GUIDANCE PREDOMINATELY FOR DAYS 4 THOUGH 7. FOR TUE NIGHT
INTO THU, USED A 50/50 BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ADJUSTED GFS
MAV MOS

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...A BROAD AREA OF BKN100 CONTINUES TO STREAM OVER
THE REGION. HOWEVER, THE CLEARING LINE IS NOT TOO FAR WEST OF KRDG
AND KABE. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
06Z. THERE REMAINS A SMALL THREAT OF BR DEVELOPMENT FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION. AT THIS TIME, THE HIGHEST THREAT APPEARS TO BE KRDG
AND KMIV. HOWEVER, WITH WINDS STILL WITH A SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT, AND CLOUDS HANGING ON THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z, DO NOT
EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO GET BELOW MVFR AT THIS TIME.

ANY BR SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 15Z TUESDAY LEAVING FEW TO SCT050, SO ANOTHER
VFR DAY TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING FROM SOUTHERLY TO EASTERLY
TO NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY, BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10KT. THE
NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT RDG AND ABE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS
KABE/KRDG/KTTN DURING THE MORNING. E/NE WINDS GUST 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR FOG EARLY OTHERWISE VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AOA 4000 FT. N-NW WIND GUST 15 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS THIS EVENING ARE AROUND TWO FEET ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT AS WELL. TOMORROW WE WILL GRADUALLY SEE
SEAS BUILD AND WINDS INCREASE OUT OF NORTHEAST. SEAS MAY REACH FOUR
FEET TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS AS WELL.
CONDITIONS BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR THIS PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NE FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA ALONG THE NNJ COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD TO THE ENTIRE ATLC COAST LATER
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS
ABOVE 22 KT WITH ANY SCA HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY. HAVE HELD OFF
ON ISSUING ANY FORMAL HEADLINES ON THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS
CONDITIONS WILL JUST MEET LOWER END SCA CRITERIA AND CONFIDENCE IS
NOT YET HIGH.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF SCA SEAS ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE
SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.

FRIDAY...WIND BECOMING SOUTH BY NIGHT. SMALL CHANCE OF AN SCA AT
NIGHT.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE,
THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...GAINES/HEAVENER/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GAINES/HEAVENER
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...GAINES/SZATKOWSKI/HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...GAINES/SZATKOWSKI/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPHI 300130
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
930 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL MOVE
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION. THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OUT TO
SEA WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA RIDGING DOWN
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS NEXT SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...THE BROAD AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTHEAST OVER EASTERN NJ. ANOTHER BAND IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
SOUTHERN DELMARVA. ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
HOWEVER, DO NOT EXPECT THE PRECIP TO LAST TOO MUCH PAST 06Z AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST OF THE
REGION AT THAT TIME. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TOO LOW FOR DEW
POINTS. ADJUSTED THE DEW POINTS UP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ALSO, SINCE THE CLEARING LINE OF HIGH CLOUDS IS JUST WEST OF THE
CWA, EXPANDED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FG ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER, STILL UNCERTAIN HOW LOW
VISIBILITIES WILL GO SINCE WINDS REMAIN AROUND 5 MPH AND MOSTLY
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT THIS HOUR.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH A INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR SOUTH. SOUNDINGS
HAVE SHOWN ALL DAY A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-
LEVELS. EVEN THOUGH THE RADAR SHOWS SOME PRECIPITATION MOST OF IT
WILL BE VIRGA. HOWEVER THE RAP AND HRRR BRING IN SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (UNDER .05 INCHES) THIS EVENING ACROSS DELMARVA AND
SOUTH NJ. DID INCLUDE THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER
FOR THESE AREAS. KEPT MANY WEATHER ELEMENTS INCLUDING LOWS NEAR
THE MET/MAV. THE MAV HAS BEEN TO DRY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALL
DAY AND DID NOT INCORPORATE THIS SET FOR DEWPOINTS. WE MAY SEE
SOME CLEARING AS WELL BY SUNRISE PERHAPS ALLOWING FOR A FEW HOUR
WINDOW FOR THE FORMATION OF PATCHY FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE WELL EAST OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE QUICKLY ON ITS HEALS WITH AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL SUPPORT MAY ALLOW FOR
THE GENERATION OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON FOCUSED NW
OF PHL. FOR TEMPERATURES WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE MAV/MET
GUIDANCE SETS. ECMWF 925 MB TEMPERATURES WOULD YIELD TO SURFACE
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80`S FOR PHL. HOWEVER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS KEPT HIGHS IN THE 70`S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY FEW CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST FROM 12 HOURS
AGO. SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD BUT AMOUNTS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE ON THE RELATIVELY LIGHT SIDE. TEMPERATURES
FOR THE TIME PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EARLY IN THE
PERIOD, THEN TRENDING TO NEAR NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING WITH NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
RAIN. HIGHEST POPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND BEFORE A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE ON MONDAY, ONCE AGAIN BRINGING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION.

USE WPC GUIDANCE PREDOMINATELY FOR DAYS 4 THOUGH 7. FOR TUE NIGHT
INTO THU, USED A 50/50 BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ADJUSTED GFS
MAV MOS

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...A BROAD AREA OF BKN100 CONTINUES TO STREAM OVER
THE REGION. HOWEVER, THE CLEARING LINE IS NOT TOO FAR WEST OF KRDG
AND KABE. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
06Z. THERE REMAINS A SMALL THREAT OF BR DEVELOPMENT FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION. AT THIS TIME, THE HIGHEST THREAT APPEARS TO BE KRDG
AND KMIV. HOWEVER, WITH WINDS STILL WITH A SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT, AND CLOUDS HANGING ON THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z, DO NOT
EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO GET BELOW MVFR AT THIS TIME.

ANY BR SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 15Z TUESDAY LEAVING FEW TO SCT050, SO ANOTHER
VFR DAY TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING FROM SOUTHERLY TO EASTERLY
TO NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY, BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10KT. THE
NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT RDG AND ABE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS
KABE/KRDG/KTTN DURING THE MORNING. E/NE WINDS GUST 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR FOG EARLY OTHERWISE VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AOA 4000 FT. N-NW WIND GUST 15 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS THIS EVENING ARE AROUND TWO FEET ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT AS WELL. TOMORROW WE WILL GRADUALLY SEE
SEAS BUILD AND WINDS INCREASE OUT OF NORTHEAST. SEAS MAY REACH FOUR
FEET TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS AS WELL.
CONDITIONS BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR THIS PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NE FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA ALONG THE NNJ COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD TO THE ENTIRE ATLC COAST LATER
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS
ABOVE 22 KT WITH ANY SCA HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY. HAVE HELD OFF
ON ISSUING ANY FORMAL HEADLINES ON THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS
CONDITIONS WILL JUST MEET LOWER END SCA CRITERIA AND CONFIDENCE IS
NOT YET HIGH.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF SCA SEAS ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE
SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.

FRIDAY...WIND BECOMING SOUTH BY NIGHT. SMALL CHANCE OF AN SCA AT
NIGHT.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE,
THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...GAINES/HEAVENER/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GAINES/HEAVENER
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...GAINES/SZATKOWSKI/HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...GAINES/SZATKOWSKI/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPHI 300130
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
930 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL MOVE
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION. THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OUT TO
SEA WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA RIDGING DOWN
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS NEXT SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...THE BROAD AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTHEAST OVER EASTERN NJ. ANOTHER BAND IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
SOUTHERN DELMARVA. ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
HOWEVER, DO NOT EXPECT THE PRECIP TO LAST TOO MUCH PAST 06Z AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST OF THE
REGION AT THAT TIME. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TOO LOW FOR DEW
POINTS. ADJUSTED THE DEW POINTS UP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ALSO, SINCE THE CLEARING LINE OF HIGH CLOUDS IS JUST WEST OF THE
CWA, EXPANDED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FG ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER, STILL UNCERTAIN HOW LOW
VISIBILITIES WILL GO SINCE WINDS REMAIN AROUND 5 MPH AND MOSTLY
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT THIS HOUR.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH A INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR SOUTH. SOUNDINGS
HAVE SHOWN ALL DAY A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-
LEVELS. EVEN THOUGH THE RADAR SHOWS SOME PRECIPITATION MOST OF IT
WILL BE VIRGA. HOWEVER THE RAP AND HRRR BRING IN SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (UNDER .05 INCHES) THIS EVENING ACROSS DELMARVA AND
SOUTH NJ. DID INCLUDE THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER
FOR THESE AREAS. KEPT MANY WEATHER ELEMENTS INCLUDING LOWS NEAR
THE MET/MAV. THE MAV HAS BEEN TO DRY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALL
DAY AND DID NOT INCORPORATE THIS SET FOR DEWPOINTS. WE MAY SEE
SOME CLEARING AS WELL BY SUNRISE PERHAPS ALLOWING FOR A FEW HOUR
WINDOW FOR THE FORMATION OF PATCHY FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE WELL EAST OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE QUICKLY ON ITS HEALS WITH AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL SUPPORT MAY ALLOW FOR
THE GENERATION OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON FOCUSED NW
OF PHL. FOR TEMPERATURES WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE MAV/MET
GUIDANCE SETS. ECMWF 925 MB TEMPERATURES WOULD YIELD TO SURFACE
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80`S FOR PHL. HOWEVER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS KEPT HIGHS IN THE 70`S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY FEW CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST FROM 12 HOURS
AGO. SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD BUT AMOUNTS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE ON THE RELATIVELY LIGHT SIDE. TEMPERATURES
FOR THE TIME PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EARLY IN THE
PERIOD, THEN TRENDING TO NEAR NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING WITH NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
RAIN. HIGHEST POPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND BEFORE A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE ON MONDAY, ONCE AGAIN BRINGING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION.

USE WPC GUIDANCE PREDOMINATELY FOR DAYS 4 THOUGH 7. FOR TUE NIGHT
INTO THU, USED A 50/50 BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ADJUSTED GFS
MAV MOS

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...A BROAD AREA OF BKN100 CONTINUES TO STREAM OVER
THE REGION. HOWEVER, THE CLEARING LINE IS NOT TOO FAR WEST OF KRDG
AND KABE. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
06Z. THERE REMAINS A SMALL THREAT OF BR DEVELOPMENT FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION. AT THIS TIME, THE HIGHEST THREAT APPEARS TO BE KRDG
AND KMIV. HOWEVER, WITH WINDS STILL WITH A SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT, AND CLOUDS HANGING ON THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z, DO NOT
EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO GET BELOW MVFR AT THIS TIME.

ANY BR SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 15Z TUESDAY LEAVING FEW TO SCT050, SO ANOTHER
VFR DAY TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING FROM SOUTHERLY TO EASTERLY
TO NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY, BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10KT. THE
NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT RDG AND ABE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS
KABE/KRDG/KTTN DURING THE MORNING. E/NE WINDS GUST 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR FOG EARLY OTHERWISE VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AOA 4000 FT. N-NW WIND GUST 15 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS THIS EVENING ARE AROUND TWO FEET ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT AS WELL. TOMORROW WE WILL GRADUALLY SEE
SEAS BUILD AND WINDS INCREASE OUT OF NORTHEAST. SEAS MAY REACH FOUR
FEET TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS AS WELL.
CONDITIONS BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR THIS PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NE FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA ALONG THE NNJ COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD TO THE ENTIRE ATLC COAST LATER
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS
ABOVE 22 KT WITH ANY SCA HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY. HAVE HELD OFF
ON ISSUING ANY FORMAL HEADLINES ON THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS
CONDITIONS WILL JUST MEET LOWER END SCA CRITERIA AND CONFIDENCE IS
NOT YET HIGH.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF SCA SEAS ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE
SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.

FRIDAY...WIND BECOMING SOUTH BY NIGHT. SMALL CHANCE OF AN SCA AT
NIGHT.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE,
THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...GAINES/HEAVENER/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GAINES/HEAVENER
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...GAINES/SZATKOWSKI/HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...GAINES/SZATKOWSKI/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300050
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
850 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FA COVERED IN CLDNS THIS AFTN...AND AREA OF RA HAS SLOWED ITS
PROGRESS EWD. HIGHEST POPS (50-60%) TO RMN AWAY FM THE CST INTO
EARLY THIS EVE...BEFORE SHIFTING E LATER ON. TROUGH OF LO PRES
SFC-ALOFT WILL BE SLO TO EXIT THE CST AFT MDNGT...BRINGING A
GRADUAL END OF PCPN FM W-E. ALSO SLOWED ANY CLEARING BEHIND THIS
SYS AFT MDNGT...AND ADDED PATCHY FG. LOW TEMPS FM THE L/M50S NW TO
60S CSTL SE VA/NE NC. ADDITIONAL QPF MNLY AVGG 1/10TH INCH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR TUE...FA TO BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING TROUGH SFC-ALOFT
OFFSHORE (SHUNTING PRECIP EVENTUALLY WELL E AND S OF THE FA BY
MIDDAY/AFTN HRS)...AND A STRONGER UPR LVL TROUGH PUSHING SE FROM
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. NOT MUCH FORCING WILL REMAIN ACRS THE FA
(EARLY) TUE MRNG. HAVE POPS AOB 14% MOST PLACES...THOUGH MAINTAINING
JUST A SLGT CHC POP ACRS FA SE VA/CSTL NE NC. XPCG P/MSNY CONDS N
AND CNTRL...TO P/MCLDY SE...W/ HI TEMPS MNLY 75 TO 80F.

UPR LVL LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH NEW ENG TUE NGT THROUGH WED...PUSHING
ASSOCIATED TROUGH SFC-ALOFT ACRS FA W/ BKN CLDNS AND MNLY SLGT CHC
POPS (AND MNLY N AND E PORTIONS). OTRW VRB CLDS TO PCLDY. LO TEMPS
TUE NGT FM THE M50S INLAND TO L60S CSTL SE VA/NE NC. HI TEMPS WED
FM THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHORE...TO 75 TO 80F ELSW.

HI PRES FM NEW ENG BUILDS SWWD INTO THE FA WED NGT INTO
THU...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PD OF ENE WNDS. MDLS SUGGEST THAT
INLAND PLACES HAVE LO PROB FOR ISOLD SHRAS (THU) ALONG W/ VRB
CLDS. MNLY PCLDY TWD THE CST. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM THE M50S TO
L60S. HI TEMPS THU FM THE M/U70S N...TO ARND 80F S (THOUGH L70S
XPCD RIGHT AT THE IMMEDIATE CST).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A
CONTINUATION OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM.
FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

MODELS ARE RATHER CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT TO MOVE
INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
HAVE 50 PERCENT CHC FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA BEGINNING WESTERN
PORTIONS FRIDAY EVENING AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING. WENT NO HIGHER THAN 50 PERCENT BUT
AS CONFIDENCE IN THE EVENT INCREASES...FUTURE ISSUANCES WILL
PROBABLY HAVE LIKELY POPS. CURRENTLY WPC HAS ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH QPF WITH THE MAIN PART OF THE PCPN PROBABLY LASTING ABOUT SIX
HOURS AT ANY LOCATION.

FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 INLAND AND MID 70S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS IN THE
UPR 60S TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY EXCEPT ON
SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY MID TO UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE UPR
50S TO LWR 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING LOWER TO THE UPR 40S TO
MID 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN FOR THE TAF SITES EAST OF
KRIC. THE WEAK TROF IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE COAST BETWEEN 08Z-
13Z TUES WITH DRY WX RETURNING IN ITS WAKE. CLEARING AND MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LEAD TO IFR FOG DEVELOPING AT KRIC AROUND 08Z
AND CLOSER TO DAYBREAK AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES EXPECT KORF.

DRY WX IS THEN INDICATED FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. BUT...WILL
NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE EACH
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS ARE PROVIDING QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WHICH WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. N/NE WINDS INCREASE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AND SEAS MAY BUILD TO NEAR 5 FEET EARLY WEDNESDAY IN
THE OUTER PORTION OF THE COASTAL ZONES. WINDS DIMINISH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY BUT WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...JDM/DAP
MARINE...LSA







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300050
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
850 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FA COVERED IN CLDNS THIS AFTN...AND AREA OF RA HAS SLOWED ITS
PROGRESS EWD. HIGHEST POPS (50-60%) TO RMN AWAY FM THE CST INTO
EARLY THIS EVE...BEFORE SHIFTING E LATER ON. TROUGH OF LO PRES
SFC-ALOFT WILL BE SLO TO EXIT THE CST AFT MDNGT...BRINGING A
GRADUAL END OF PCPN FM W-E. ALSO SLOWED ANY CLEARING BEHIND THIS
SYS AFT MDNGT...AND ADDED PATCHY FG. LOW TEMPS FM THE L/M50S NW TO
60S CSTL SE VA/NE NC. ADDITIONAL QPF MNLY AVGG 1/10TH INCH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR TUE...FA TO BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING TROUGH SFC-ALOFT
OFFSHORE (SHUNTING PRECIP EVENTUALLY WELL E AND S OF THE FA BY
MIDDAY/AFTN HRS)...AND A STRONGER UPR LVL TROUGH PUSHING SE FROM
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. NOT MUCH FORCING WILL REMAIN ACRS THE FA
(EARLY) TUE MRNG. HAVE POPS AOB 14% MOST PLACES...THOUGH MAINTAINING
JUST A SLGT CHC POP ACRS FA SE VA/CSTL NE NC. XPCG P/MSNY CONDS N
AND CNTRL...TO P/MCLDY SE...W/ HI TEMPS MNLY 75 TO 80F.

UPR LVL LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH NEW ENG TUE NGT THROUGH WED...PUSHING
ASSOCIATED TROUGH SFC-ALOFT ACRS FA W/ BKN CLDNS AND MNLY SLGT CHC
POPS (AND MNLY N AND E PORTIONS). OTRW VRB CLDS TO PCLDY. LO TEMPS
TUE NGT FM THE M50S INLAND TO L60S CSTL SE VA/NE NC. HI TEMPS WED
FM THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHORE...TO 75 TO 80F ELSW.

HI PRES FM NEW ENG BUILDS SWWD INTO THE FA WED NGT INTO
THU...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PD OF ENE WNDS. MDLS SUGGEST THAT
INLAND PLACES HAVE LO PROB FOR ISOLD SHRAS (THU) ALONG W/ VRB
CLDS. MNLY PCLDY TWD THE CST. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM THE M50S TO
L60S. HI TEMPS THU FM THE M/U70S N...TO ARND 80F S (THOUGH L70S
XPCD RIGHT AT THE IMMEDIATE CST).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A
CONTINUATION OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM.
FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

MODELS ARE RATHER CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT TO MOVE
INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
HAVE 50 PERCENT CHC FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA BEGINNING WESTERN
PORTIONS FRIDAY EVENING AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING. WENT NO HIGHER THAN 50 PERCENT BUT
AS CONFIDENCE IN THE EVENT INCREASES...FUTURE ISSUANCES WILL
PROBABLY HAVE LIKELY POPS. CURRENTLY WPC HAS ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH QPF WITH THE MAIN PART OF THE PCPN PROBABLY LASTING ABOUT SIX
HOURS AT ANY LOCATION.

FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 INLAND AND MID 70S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS IN THE
UPR 60S TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY EXCEPT ON
SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY MID TO UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE UPR
50S TO LWR 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING LOWER TO THE UPR 40S TO
MID 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN FOR THE TAF SITES EAST OF
KRIC. THE WEAK TROF IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE COAST BETWEEN 08Z-
13Z TUES WITH DRY WX RETURNING IN ITS WAKE. CLEARING AND MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LEAD TO IFR FOG DEVELOPING AT KRIC AROUND 08Z
AND CLOSER TO DAYBREAK AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES EXPECT KORF.

DRY WX IS THEN INDICATED FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. BUT...WILL
NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE EACH
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS ARE PROVIDING QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WHICH WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. N/NE WINDS INCREASE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AND SEAS MAY BUILD TO NEAR 5 FEET EARLY WEDNESDAY IN
THE OUTER PORTION OF THE COASTAL ZONES. WINDS DIMINISH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY BUT WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...JDM/DAP
MARINE...LSA






000
FXUS61 KLWX 300036
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
836 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE A COLD
FRONT SAGS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
OR PERHAPS AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
STILL HAVE SOME LIGHT RAIN CRUISING ACROSS THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE
BAY AREA THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALSO BEEN NOTED ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHERN MD. MEANWHILE SOME MID-LEVEL DRYING IS STARTING
TO BECOME EVIDENT TOWARD THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

TRENDS SUGGEST LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS WILL BE WANING OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND MID-LEVEL DRYING WILL ALSO EXPAND EAST
THROUGH THE CWA. THIS SUPPORTS A DRY OVERNIGHT AND AM BECOMING
INCREASINGLY CONCERNED FOR FOG FOR THE OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION. EXTENT OF
CLEARING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN BUT IF SIGNIFICANT CLEARING OCCURS
TONIGHT...THEN DENSE FOG MAY RESULT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE TUESDAY...A SURFACE FRONT AND ITS
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL NUDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THIS FRONT COULD SPAWN A COUPLE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...GIVEN ANY AMPLE SUNSHINE. WE SHOULD
ENCOUNTER MORE SUNSHINE TUESDAY THAN THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ROLL INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE PIVOTING NORTH OF
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ABATE
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING DURING THE EVENING WITH JUST A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS LEFTOVER ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
RESULTING IN A LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FETCH...HOLDING IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND KEEPING CLOUDS AROUND. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UPSLOPE FORCING COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME RAIN DURING THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...LOWS
IN THE MID-UPPER 50S AND HIGHS 70-75.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DWINDLE QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY BUT SHIFT A BIT
FURTHER EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
WITH NOT QUITE AS MANY CLOUDS EXPECTED AND PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AS COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL
RIGHT AROUND CLIMO NORMS.

CLOUDS INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A LARGE AND DEEP
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...THEN PIVOTS TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
DRIVE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SUBSEQUENT
TRACK INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THIS SETUP WILL DRAG A SEASONABLY
STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AS WELL AS A BIT OF A LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DRIVE A BAND OF SHOWERS...PERHAPS A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN STRONG FORCING IN SPITE OF A LACK OF
APPRECIABLE CAPE. THE 12Z GFS IS QUITE AMPLIFIED /AS IT WAS
YESTERDAY/ SHOWING THE TROUGH TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT IN THE UPPER
LEVELS AND A STRONGER LOW-LEVEL JET RESULTING IN STRONGER FORCING
AND MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAIN PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS.
THE 00Z ECMWF IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG SUGGESTING A BIT LESS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH WEAKER LOW-LEVEL WINDS.

THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY USHERING IN A COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY APPROACH BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT FORECAST MODELS/ENSEMBLES DISAGREE ON TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL TERMINALS IN VFR RIGHT NOW...BUT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRAPPED EXPECT SOME FOG FORMATION TO OCCUR TONIGHT AS SOME MID-
LEVEL DRY AIR WORKS IN. EXTENT OF CLEARING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
AND WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE HOW LOW VIS WILL GO. HAVE HIT
MRB/CHO THE HARDEST WITH 1/2SM...NOT QUITE AS LOW TOWARD THE HUBS.
BUT IF CLEARING WORKS ALL THE WAY EAST THEN VIS 1/2SM OR LESS IS
PLAUSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY /AND LOW CIGS IN STRATUS/.

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF TUESDAY UNTIL SHOWERS PUSH IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS
PSBL WRN MOST TERMINALS TUE EVE W/ ISO SHWRS/TSTMS. MOD CONFIDENCE
MAINLY VFR WED-THU. WINDS LIGHT E TO NE TUE NIGHT...AND GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THU. MORE CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS PSBL FRI-
FRI NIGHT AS STRONG FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK GRADIENT KEEPS WINDS 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH TUESDAY.

LOOKING LESS LIKELY FOR SCA CONDITIONS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WEAKER AND FURTHER OFFSHORE WITH
LOW PRESSURE. SCA CONDITIONS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY AHEAD OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY...THEN BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLW
NEAR TERM...BPP/KLW
SHORT TERM...KLW
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...BPP/KLW/DFH
MARINE...BPP/KLW/DFH







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 292339
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
739 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY WEA IS EXPD TNGT AS A WK MID/UPR TROF EXITS. THE NXT ADVNG
SHRTWV WL MOVE ACRS THE GT LKS RGN TUE WITH SCT SHWRS. LACK OF
DEEP MOISTURE AND THE RECENT DRY PATTERN SHOULD HELP LMT PCPN
COVG...SO MAINTAINED ONLY CHC POPS ATTM. LATEST MDL PROGS SHOW VRY
LTL INSTBY SO REMOVED TSTM MENTION FM THE FCST. TEMPS WL CONT A
FEW DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS MORE OR LESS AGREE ON FRONTAL TIMING TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
BOUNDARY NEAR OR THROUGH PIT BY 00Z. WITH CONTINUING FROPA...WILL
KEEP FADING CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH THE LIMITED
MOISTURE...LIKELY TOO LITTLE TO TAKE MUCH ADVANTAGE OF THE ARRIVAL
OF UPPER CLOSED LOW DURING THE NIGHT. HAVE DRY POPS BY SUNRISE ON
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE SOME PATCHES OF LOW CLOUD FORM UP DURING THE
NIGHT...WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP. BLENDED MOS GUIDANCE
INTO PREVIOUS MIN TEMP GRID TO NUDGE VALUES UP A DEGREE OR TWO.

AS HINTED AT BY PREVIOUS SHIFT...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED A MINIMAL POP
FOR SHRA TO THE EASTERN RIDGES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  UPPER LOW
ALONG WITH ITS COLD POOL ALOFT WILL STILL BE EXITING DURING TIME OF
PEAK HEATING.  WHILE THERE IS ENOUGH MIDLEVEL WARM AIR TO PREVENT
SHRA FORMATION FROM PIT ON WEST...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE CAPE PROFILE FOR LOCATIONS LIKE DUJ AND LBE. TO THE
WEST...ANY MORNING LOW CLOUDS WOULD LIFT INTO SCT CU ONLY.  USED NAM
H850 TEMPS TO CONSTRUCT MAX TEMP GRID...ENDING UP WITH VALUES CLOSE
TO MOS.

ONCE UPPER LOW EXITS...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND H500 RIDGING
BUILD IN...GIVING US DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
MAY SEE A FEW MORE CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN RIDGES THAN THE WEST
GIVEN SOME LIGHT EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW.  TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ECMWF COMING A LITTLE MORE IN LINE WITH GFS AND ENSEMBLES ON TIMING
OF MORE SIGNIFICANT FROPA ON FRIDAY.  GIVEN INCREASED
CONFIDENCE...BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY AND ALSO INSERTED A CHANCE OF
THUNDER WITH THE VIGOROUS NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. SOME DISAGREEMENT
THEREAFTER WHETHER ANOTHER CLOSED LOW SINKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
WILL RIDE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FROM SATURDAY ON FOR NOW. IN
ANY CASE...MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE ONLY BLEMISH ON VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY IS
EXPECTED TO COME FROM FM SHALLOW PREDAWN FOG. SHOULD MID LVL
CLDINESS DVLP A FEW HRS QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED WITH THE ADVN OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHRTWV...THAT RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WL BE
PRECLUDED.

OTHERWISE...SCT SHWRS ARE EXPECTED TO DVLP WITH THE DISTURBANCE...BUT
RESTRICTION POSSIBILITY LKS TO BE LTD TO SOME MVFR VSBYS.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTION WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/15




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 292339
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
739 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY WEA IS EXPD TNGT AS A WK MID/UPR TROF EXITS. THE NXT ADVNG
SHRTWV WL MOVE ACRS THE GT LKS RGN TUE WITH SCT SHWRS. LACK OF
DEEP MOISTURE AND THE RECENT DRY PATTERN SHOULD HELP LMT PCPN
COVG...SO MAINTAINED ONLY CHC POPS ATTM. LATEST MDL PROGS SHOW VRY
LTL INSTBY SO REMOVED TSTM MENTION FM THE FCST. TEMPS WL CONT A
FEW DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS MORE OR LESS AGREE ON FRONTAL TIMING TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
BOUNDARY NEAR OR THROUGH PIT BY 00Z. WITH CONTINUING FROPA...WILL
KEEP FADING CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH THE LIMITED
MOISTURE...LIKELY TOO LITTLE TO TAKE MUCH ADVANTAGE OF THE ARRIVAL
OF UPPER CLOSED LOW DURING THE NIGHT. HAVE DRY POPS BY SUNRISE ON
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE SOME PATCHES OF LOW CLOUD FORM UP DURING THE
NIGHT...WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP. BLENDED MOS GUIDANCE
INTO PREVIOUS MIN TEMP GRID TO NUDGE VALUES UP A DEGREE OR TWO.

AS HINTED AT BY PREVIOUS SHIFT...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED A MINIMAL POP
FOR SHRA TO THE EASTERN RIDGES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  UPPER LOW
ALONG WITH ITS COLD POOL ALOFT WILL STILL BE EXITING DURING TIME OF
PEAK HEATING.  WHILE THERE IS ENOUGH MIDLEVEL WARM AIR TO PREVENT
SHRA FORMATION FROM PIT ON WEST...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE CAPE PROFILE FOR LOCATIONS LIKE DUJ AND LBE. TO THE
WEST...ANY MORNING LOW CLOUDS WOULD LIFT INTO SCT CU ONLY.  USED NAM
H850 TEMPS TO CONSTRUCT MAX TEMP GRID...ENDING UP WITH VALUES CLOSE
TO MOS.

ONCE UPPER LOW EXITS...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND H500 RIDGING
BUILD IN...GIVING US DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
MAY SEE A FEW MORE CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN RIDGES THAN THE WEST
GIVEN SOME LIGHT EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW.  TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ECMWF COMING A LITTLE MORE IN LINE WITH GFS AND ENSEMBLES ON TIMING
OF MORE SIGNIFICANT FROPA ON FRIDAY.  GIVEN INCREASED
CONFIDENCE...BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY AND ALSO INSERTED A CHANCE OF
THUNDER WITH THE VIGOROUS NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. SOME DISAGREEMENT
THEREAFTER WHETHER ANOTHER CLOSED LOW SINKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
WILL RIDE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FROM SATURDAY ON FOR NOW. IN
ANY CASE...MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE ONLY BLEMISH ON VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY IS
EXPECTED TO COME FROM FM SHALLOW PREDAWN FOG. SHOULD MID LVL
CLDINESS DVLP A FEW HRS QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED WITH THE ADVN OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHRTWV...THAT RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WL BE
PRECLUDED.

OTHERWISE...SCT SHWRS ARE EXPECTED TO DVLP WITH THE DISTURBANCE...BUT
RESTRICTION POSSIBILITY LKS TO BE LTD TO SOME MVFR VSBYS.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTION WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/15





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 292036
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
436 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID AND UPR TROFG HAS SPARKED ISOLD SHWRS ACRS ERN OH AND WV.
THESE SHOULD QUICKLY DSPT BY SUNSET AS SPPRT DMNSHS. THE NXT ADVNG
SHRTWV WL MOVE ACRS THE GT LKS RGN TUE WITH ADDNL SHWRS PSBL.
INSTBY IS MINIMAL BUT WL MAINTAIN AN ISOLD TSTM MENTION MAINLY N
OF PIT WHERE BETTER UPR SPPRT IS PROGGED. WITH THE RECENT DRY
PATTERN...IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO GET MUCH PCPN COVG SO MAINTAINED
ONLY CHC POPS ATTM. TEMPS WL CONT A FEW DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS MORE OR LESS AGREE ON FRONTAL TIMING TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
BOUNDARY NEAR OR THROUGH PIT BY 00Z. WITH CONTINUING FROPA...WILL
KEEP FADING CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH THE LIMITED
MOISTURE...LIKELY TOO LITTLE TO TAKE MUCH ADVANTAGE OF THE ARRIVAL
OF UPPER CLOSED LOW DURING THE NIGHT. HAVE DRY POPS BY SUNRISE ON
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE SOME PATCHES OF LOW CLOUD FORM UP DURING THE
NIGHT...WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP. BLENDED MOS GUIDANCE
INTO PREVIOUS MIN TEMP GRID TO NUDGE VALUES UP A DEGREE OR TWO.

AS HINTED AT BY PREVIOUS SHIFT...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED A MINIMAL POP
FOR SHRA TO THE EASTERN RIDGES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  UPPER LOW
ALONG WITH ITS COLD POOL ALOFT WILL STILL BE EXITING DURING TIME OF
PEAK HEATING.  WHILE THERE IS ENOUGH MIDLEVEL WARM AIR TO PREVENT
SHRA FORMATION FROM PIT ON WEST...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE CAPE PROFILE FOR LOCATIONS LIKE DUJ AND LBE. TO THE
WEST...ANY MORNING LOW CLOUDS WOULD LIFT INTO SCT CU ONLY.  USED NAM
H850 TEMPS TO CONSTRUCT MAX TEMP GRID...ENDING UP WITH VALUES CLOSE
TO MOS.

ONCE UPPER LOW EXITS...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND H500 RIDGING
BUILD IN...GIVING US DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
MAY SEE A FEW MORE CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN RIDGES THAN THE WEST
GIVEN SOME LIGHT EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW.  TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN ABOVE NORMAL. CL

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ECMWF COMING A LITTLE MORE IN LINE WITH GFS AND ENSEMBLES ON TIMING
OF MORE SIGNIFICANT FROPA ON FRIDAY.  GIVEN INCREASED
CONFIDENCE...BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY AND ALSO INSERTED A CHANCE OF
THUNDER WITH THE VIGOROUS NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. SOME DISAGREEMENT
THEREAFTER WHETHER ANOTHER CLOSED LOW SINKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
WILL RIDE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FROM SATURDAY ON FOR NOW. IN
ANY CASE...MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND. CL

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF TERMINALS THROUGH
THE 24 HOUR PERIOD. HOWEVER...HAVE GONE WITH SOMEWHAT OF A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST...WITH MVFR/IFR MORNING FOG IN SEVERAL
LOCATIONS. AFTER MORNING FOG DISSIPATES...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TOMORROW...WITH GREATER COVERAGE FARTHER TO THE NORTH. AT
THIS POINT...HAVE GONE WITH VCSH AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WDSPRD RSTRNS WL RTN WITH A FRI CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291956
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
356 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FA COVERED IN CLDNS THIS AFTN...AND AREA OF RA HAS SLOWED ITS
PROGRESS EWD. HIGHEST POPS (50-60%) TO RMN AWAY FM THE CST INTO
EARLY THIS EVE...BEFORE SHIFTING E LATER ON. TROUGH OF LO PRES
SFC-ALOFT WILL BE SLO TO EXIT THE CST AFT MDNGT...BRINGING A
GRADUAL END OF PCPN FM W-E. ALSO SLOWED ANY CLEARING BEHIND THIS
SYS AFT MDNGT...AND ADDED PATCHY FG. LOW TEMPS FM THE L/M50S NW TO
60S CSTL SE VA/NE NC. ADDITIONAL QPF MNLY AVGG 1/10TH INCH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR TUE...FA TO BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING TROUGH SFC-ALOFT
OFFSHORE (SHUNTING PRECIP EVENTUALLY WELL E AND S OF THE FA BY
MIDDAY/AFTN HRS)...AND A STRONGER UPR LVL TROUGH PUSHING SE FROM
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. NOT MUCH FORCING WILL REMAIN ACRS THE FA
(EARLY) TUE MRNG. HAVE POPS AOB 14% MOST PLACES...THOUGH MAINTAINING
JUST A SLGT CHC POP ACRS FA SE VA/CSTL NE NC. XPCG P/MSNY CONDS N
AND CNTRL...TO P/MCLDY SE...W/ HI TEMPS MNLY 75 TO 80F.

UPR LVL LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH NEW ENG TUE NGT THROUGH WED...PUSHING
ASSOCIATED TROUGH SFC-ALOFT ACRS FA W/ BKN CLDNS AND MNLY SLGT CHC
POPS (AND MNLY N AND E PORTIONS). OTRW VRB CLDS TO PCLDY. LO TEMPS
TUE NGT FM THE M50S INLAND TO L60S CSTL SE VA/NE NC. HI TEMPS WED
FM THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHORE...TO 75 TO 80F ELSW.

HI PRES FM NEW ENG BUILDS SWWD INTO THE FA WED NGT INTO
THU...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PD OF ENE WNDS. MDLS SUGGEST THAT
INLAND PLACES HAVE LO PROB FOR ISOLD SHRAS (THU) ALONG W/ VRB
CLDS. MNLY PCLDY TWD THE CST. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM THE M50S TO
L60S. HI TEMPS THU FM THE M/U70S N...TO ARND 80F S (THOUGH L70S
XPCD RIGHT AT THE IMMEDIATE CST).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A
CONTINUATION OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM.
FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

MODELS ARE RATHER CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT TO MOVE
INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
HAVE 50 PERCENT CHC FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA BEGINNING WESTERN
PORTIONS FRIDAY EVENING AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING. WENT NO HIGHER THAN 50 PERCENT BUT
AS CONFIDENCE IN THE EVENT INCREASES...FUTURE ISSUANCES WILL
PROBABLY HAVE LIKELY POPS. CURRENTLY WPC HAS ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH QPF WITH THE MAIN PART OF THE PCPN PROBABLY LASTING ABOUT SIX
HOURS AT ANY LOCATION.

FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 INLAND AND MID 70S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS IN THE
UPR 60S TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY EXCEPT ON
SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY MID TO UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE UPR
50S TO LWR 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING LOWER TO THE UPR 40S TO
MID 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN FOR THE TAF SITES
AS IT DOES SO. CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING RAIN IS LOWEST FOR KORF
SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED PREDOMINATE -RA THERE. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. THE WEAK TROF IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE COAST
BETWEEN 08Z-13Z TUES WITH DRY WX RETURNING IN ITS WAKE. MAY SEE SOME
IFR FOG DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK.

DRY WX IS THEN INDICATED FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. BUT...WILL
NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE EACH
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS ARE PROVIDING QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WHICH WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. N/NE WINDS INCREASE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AND SEAS MAY BUILD TO NEAR 5 FEET EARLY WEDNESDAY IN
THE OUTER PORTION OF THE COASTAL ZONES. WINDS DIMINISH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY BUT WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...JDM/TMG
MARINE...LSA







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291956
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
356 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FA COVERED IN CLDNS THIS AFTN...AND AREA OF RA HAS SLOWED ITS
PROGRESS EWD. HIGHEST POPS (50-60%) TO RMN AWAY FM THE CST INTO
EARLY THIS EVE...BEFORE SHIFTING E LATER ON. TROUGH OF LO PRES
SFC-ALOFT WILL BE SLO TO EXIT THE CST AFT MDNGT...BRINGING A
GRADUAL END OF PCPN FM W-E. ALSO SLOWED ANY CLEARING BEHIND THIS
SYS AFT MDNGT...AND ADDED PATCHY FG. LOW TEMPS FM THE L/M50S NW TO
60S CSTL SE VA/NE NC. ADDITIONAL QPF MNLY AVGG 1/10TH INCH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR TUE...FA TO BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING TROUGH SFC-ALOFT
OFFSHORE (SHUNTING PRECIP EVENTUALLY WELL E AND S OF THE FA BY
MIDDAY/AFTN HRS)...AND A STRONGER UPR LVL TROUGH PUSHING SE FROM
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. NOT MUCH FORCING WILL REMAIN ACRS THE FA
(EARLY) TUE MRNG. HAVE POPS AOB 14% MOST PLACES...THOUGH MAINTAINING
JUST A SLGT CHC POP ACRS FA SE VA/CSTL NE NC. XPCG P/MSNY CONDS N
AND CNTRL...TO P/MCLDY SE...W/ HI TEMPS MNLY 75 TO 80F.

UPR LVL LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH NEW ENG TUE NGT THROUGH WED...PUSHING
ASSOCIATED TROUGH SFC-ALOFT ACRS FA W/ BKN CLDNS AND MNLY SLGT CHC
POPS (AND MNLY N AND E PORTIONS). OTRW VRB CLDS TO PCLDY. LO TEMPS
TUE NGT FM THE M50S INLAND TO L60S CSTL SE VA/NE NC. HI TEMPS WED
FM THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHORE...TO 75 TO 80F ELSW.

HI PRES FM NEW ENG BUILDS SWWD INTO THE FA WED NGT INTO
THU...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PD OF ENE WNDS. MDLS SUGGEST THAT
INLAND PLACES HAVE LO PROB FOR ISOLD SHRAS (THU) ALONG W/ VRB
CLDS. MNLY PCLDY TWD THE CST. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM THE M50S TO
L60S. HI TEMPS THU FM THE M/U70S N...TO ARND 80F S (THOUGH L70S
XPCD RIGHT AT THE IMMEDIATE CST).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A
CONTINUATION OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM.
FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

MODELS ARE RATHER CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT TO MOVE
INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
HAVE 50 PERCENT CHC FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA BEGINNING WESTERN
PORTIONS FRIDAY EVENING AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING. WENT NO HIGHER THAN 50 PERCENT BUT
AS CONFIDENCE IN THE EVENT INCREASES...FUTURE ISSUANCES WILL
PROBABLY HAVE LIKELY POPS. CURRENTLY WPC HAS ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH QPF WITH THE MAIN PART OF THE PCPN PROBABLY LASTING ABOUT SIX
HOURS AT ANY LOCATION.

FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 INLAND AND MID 70S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS IN THE
UPR 60S TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY EXCEPT ON
SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY MID TO UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE UPR
50S TO LWR 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING LOWER TO THE UPR 40S TO
MID 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN FOR THE TAF SITES
AS IT DOES SO. CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING RAIN IS LOWEST FOR KORF
SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED PREDOMINATE -RA THERE. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. THE WEAK TROF IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE COAST
BETWEEN 08Z-13Z TUES WITH DRY WX RETURNING IN ITS WAKE. MAY SEE SOME
IFR FOG DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK.

DRY WX IS THEN INDICATED FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. BUT...WILL
NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE EACH
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS ARE PROVIDING QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WHICH WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. N/NE WINDS INCREASE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AND SEAS MAY BUILD TO NEAR 5 FEET EARLY WEDNESDAY IN
THE OUTER PORTION OF THE COASTAL ZONES. WINDS DIMINISH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY BUT WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...JDM/TMG
MARINE...LSA







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291956
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
356 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FA COVERED IN CLDNS THIS AFTN...AND AREA OF RA HAS SLOWED ITS
PROGRESS EWD. HIGHEST POPS (50-60%) TO RMN AWAY FM THE CST INTO
EARLY THIS EVE...BEFORE SHIFTING E LATER ON. TROUGH OF LO PRES
SFC-ALOFT WILL BE SLO TO EXIT THE CST AFT MDNGT...BRINGING A
GRADUAL END OF PCPN FM W-E. ALSO SLOWED ANY CLEARING BEHIND THIS
SYS AFT MDNGT...AND ADDED PATCHY FG. LOW TEMPS FM THE L/M50S NW TO
60S CSTL SE VA/NE NC. ADDITIONAL QPF MNLY AVGG 1/10TH INCH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR TUE...FA TO BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING TROUGH SFC-ALOFT
OFFSHORE (SHUNTING PRECIP EVENTUALLY WELL E AND S OF THE FA BY
MIDDAY/AFTN HRS)...AND A STRONGER UPR LVL TROUGH PUSHING SE FROM
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. NOT MUCH FORCING WILL REMAIN ACRS THE FA
(EARLY) TUE MRNG. HAVE POPS AOB 14% MOST PLACES...THOUGH MAINTAINING
JUST A SLGT CHC POP ACRS FA SE VA/CSTL NE NC. XPCG P/MSNY CONDS N
AND CNTRL...TO P/MCLDY SE...W/ HI TEMPS MNLY 75 TO 80F.

UPR LVL LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH NEW ENG TUE NGT THROUGH WED...PUSHING
ASSOCIATED TROUGH SFC-ALOFT ACRS FA W/ BKN CLDNS AND MNLY SLGT CHC
POPS (AND MNLY N AND E PORTIONS). OTRW VRB CLDS TO PCLDY. LO TEMPS
TUE NGT FM THE M50S INLAND TO L60S CSTL SE VA/NE NC. HI TEMPS WED
FM THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHORE...TO 75 TO 80F ELSW.

HI PRES FM NEW ENG BUILDS SWWD INTO THE FA WED NGT INTO
THU...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PD OF ENE WNDS. MDLS SUGGEST THAT
INLAND PLACES HAVE LO PROB FOR ISOLD SHRAS (THU) ALONG W/ VRB
CLDS. MNLY PCLDY TWD THE CST. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM THE M50S TO
L60S. HI TEMPS THU FM THE M/U70S N...TO ARND 80F S (THOUGH L70S
XPCD RIGHT AT THE IMMEDIATE CST).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A
CONTINUATION OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM.
FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

MODELS ARE RATHER CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT TO MOVE
INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
HAVE 50 PERCENT CHC FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA BEGINNING WESTERN
PORTIONS FRIDAY EVENING AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING. WENT NO HIGHER THAN 50 PERCENT BUT
AS CONFIDENCE IN THE EVENT INCREASES...FUTURE ISSUANCES WILL
PROBABLY HAVE LIKELY POPS. CURRENTLY WPC HAS ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH QPF WITH THE MAIN PART OF THE PCPN PROBABLY LASTING ABOUT SIX
HOURS AT ANY LOCATION.

FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 INLAND AND MID 70S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS IN THE
UPR 60S TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY EXCEPT ON
SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY MID TO UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE UPR
50S TO LWR 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING LOWER TO THE UPR 40S TO
MID 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN FOR THE TAF SITES
AS IT DOES SO. CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING RAIN IS LOWEST FOR KORF
SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED PREDOMINATE -RA THERE. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. THE WEAK TROF IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE COAST
BETWEEN 08Z-13Z TUES WITH DRY WX RETURNING IN ITS WAKE. MAY SEE SOME
IFR FOG DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK.

DRY WX IS THEN INDICATED FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. BUT...WILL
NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE EACH
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS ARE PROVIDING QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WHICH WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. N/NE WINDS INCREASE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AND SEAS MAY BUILD TO NEAR 5 FEET EARLY WEDNESDAY IN
THE OUTER PORTION OF THE COASTAL ZONES. WINDS DIMINISH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY BUT WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...JDM/TMG
MARINE...LSA







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291956
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
356 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FA COVERED IN CLDNS THIS AFTN...AND AREA OF RA HAS SLOWED ITS
PROGRESS EWD. HIGHEST POPS (50-60%) TO RMN AWAY FM THE CST INTO
EARLY THIS EVE...BEFORE SHIFTING E LATER ON. TROUGH OF LO PRES
SFC-ALOFT WILL BE SLO TO EXIT THE CST AFT MDNGT...BRINGING A
GRADUAL END OF PCPN FM W-E. ALSO SLOWED ANY CLEARING BEHIND THIS
SYS AFT MDNGT...AND ADDED PATCHY FG. LOW TEMPS FM THE L/M50S NW TO
60S CSTL SE VA/NE NC. ADDITIONAL QPF MNLY AVGG 1/10TH INCH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR TUE...FA TO BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING TROUGH SFC-ALOFT
OFFSHORE (SHUNTING PRECIP EVENTUALLY WELL E AND S OF THE FA BY
MIDDAY/AFTN HRS)...AND A STRONGER UPR LVL TROUGH PUSHING SE FROM
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. NOT MUCH FORCING WILL REMAIN ACRS THE FA
(EARLY) TUE MRNG. HAVE POPS AOB 14% MOST PLACES...THOUGH MAINTAINING
JUST A SLGT CHC POP ACRS FA SE VA/CSTL NE NC. XPCG P/MSNY CONDS N
AND CNTRL...TO P/MCLDY SE...W/ HI TEMPS MNLY 75 TO 80F.

UPR LVL LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH NEW ENG TUE NGT THROUGH WED...PUSHING
ASSOCIATED TROUGH SFC-ALOFT ACRS FA W/ BKN CLDNS AND MNLY SLGT CHC
POPS (AND MNLY N AND E PORTIONS). OTRW VRB CLDS TO PCLDY. LO TEMPS
TUE NGT FM THE M50S INLAND TO L60S CSTL SE VA/NE NC. HI TEMPS WED
FM THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHORE...TO 75 TO 80F ELSW.

HI PRES FM NEW ENG BUILDS SWWD INTO THE FA WED NGT INTO
THU...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PD OF ENE WNDS. MDLS SUGGEST THAT
INLAND PLACES HAVE LO PROB FOR ISOLD SHRAS (THU) ALONG W/ VRB
CLDS. MNLY PCLDY TWD THE CST. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM THE M50S TO
L60S. HI TEMPS THU FM THE M/U70S N...TO ARND 80F S (THOUGH L70S
XPCD RIGHT AT THE IMMEDIATE CST).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A
CONTINUATION OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM.
FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

MODELS ARE RATHER CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT TO MOVE
INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
HAVE 50 PERCENT CHC FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA BEGINNING WESTERN
PORTIONS FRIDAY EVENING AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING. WENT NO HIGHER THAN 50 PERCENT BUT
AS CONFIDENCE IN THE EVENT INCREASES...FUTURE ISSUANCES WILL
PROBABLY HAVE LIKELY POPS. CURRENTLY WPC HAS ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH QPF WITH THE MAIN PART OF THE PCPN PROBABLY LASTING ABOUT SIX
HOURS AT ANY LOCATION.

FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 INLAND AND MID 70S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS IN THE
UPR 60S TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY EXCEPT ON
SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY MID TO UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE UPR
50S TO LWR 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING LOWER TO THE UPR 40S TO
MID 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN FOR THE TAF SITES
AS IT DOES SO. CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING RAIN IS LOWEST FOR KORF
SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED PREDOMINATE -RA THERE. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. THE WEAK TROF IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE COAST
BETWEEN 08Z-13Z TUES WITH DRY WX RETURNING IN ITS WAKE. MAY SEE SOME
IFR FOG DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK.

DRY WX IS THEN INDICATED FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. BUT...WILL
NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE EACH
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS ARE PROVIDING QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WHICH WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. N/NE WINDS INCREASE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AND SEAS MAY BUILD TO NEAR 5 FEET EARLY WEDNESDAY IN
THE OUTER PORTION OF THE COASTAL ZONES. WINDS DIMINISH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY BUT WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...JDM/TMG
MARINE...LSA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 291945
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
345 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL MOVE
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION. THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OUT TO
SEA WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA RIDGING DOWN
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS NEXT SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH A INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A LOW
PRESSURE WELL TO OUR SOUTH. SOUNDINGS HAVE SHOWN ALL DAY A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS. EVEN THOUGH THE
RADAR SHOWS SOME PRECIPITATION MOST OF IT WILL BE VIRGA. HOWEVER
THE RAP AND HRRR BRING IN SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION (UNDER .05
INCHES) THIS EVENING ACROSS DELMARVA AND SOUTH NJ. DID INCLUDE THE
THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER FOR THESE AREAS. KEPT MANY
WEATHER ELEMENTS INCLUDING LOWS NEAR THE MET/MAV. THE MAV HAS BEEN
TO DRY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALL DAY AND DID NOT INCORPORATE THIS SET
FOR DEWPOINTS. WE MAY SEE SOME CLEARING AS WELL BY SUNRISE PERHAPS
ALLOWING FOR A FEW HOUR WINDOW FOR THE FORMATION OF PATCHY FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE WELL EAST OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE QUICKLY ON ITS HEALS WITH AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL SUPPORT MAY ALLOW FOR
THE GENERATION OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON FOCUSED NW
OF PHL. FOR TEMPERATURES WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE MAV/MET
GUIDANCE SETS. ECMWF 925 MB TEMPERATURES WOULD YIELD TO SURFACE
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80`S FOR PHL. HOWEVER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS KEPT HIGHS IN THE 70`S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY FEW CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST FROM 12 HOURS
AGO. SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD BUT AMOUNTS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE ON THE RELATIVELY LIGHT SIDE. TEMPERATURES
FOR THE TIME PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EARLY IN THE
PERIOD, THEN TRENDING TO NEAR NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING WITH NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
RAIN. HIGHEST POPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND BEFORE A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE ON MONDAY, ONCE AGAIN BRINGING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION.

USE WPC GUIDANCE PREDOMINATELY FOR DAYS 4 THOUGH 7. FOR TUE NIGHT
INTO THU, USED A 50/50 BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ADJUSTED GFS
MAV MOS


&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

HIGH LEVEL VFR CLOUDS AOA 15,000 FEET CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRESSURE TO SOUTH. THIS LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS OFFSHORE KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION TO A ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE, WITH ACY/MIV HAVING THE BEST CHANCE. DRY
TAFS. OVERNIGHT, SOME SCATTERED LOWER VFR CLOUDS AROUND 4,000 FEET
MAY DEVELOP. CURRENTLY IS IT MORE LIKELY THAT THE HIGHER LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL PREVENT THE FORMATION OF LOWER CLOUDS OR FOG, EXCEPT AT
RDG AND MIV WHICH TYPICALLY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE FOG. ANY FOG
SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z TUESDAY LEAVING SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS AOA 4,000
FEET, SO ANOTHER VFR DAY TUESDAY. THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT
RDG AND ABE AFTER THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD WHICH CURRENTLY RUNS TILL
18Z TUESDAY.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS
KABE/KRDG/KTTN DURING THE MORNING. E/NE WINDS GUST 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR FOG EARLY OTHERWISE VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AOA 4000 FT. N-NW WIND GUST 15 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS THIS EVENING ARE AROUND TWO FEET ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT AS WELL. TOMORROW WE WILL GRADUALLY SEE
SEAS BUILD AND WINDS INCREASE OUT OF NORTHEAST. SEAS MAY REACH FOUR
FEET TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS AS WELL.
CONDITIONS BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR THIS PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NE FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA ALONG THE NNJ COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD TO THE ENTIRE ATLC COAST LATER
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS
ABOVE 22 KT WITH ANY SCA HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY. HAVE HELD OFF
ON ISSUING ANY FORMAL HEADLINES ON THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS
CONDITIONS WILL JUST MEET LOWER END SCA CRITERIA AND CONFIDENCE IS
NOT YET HIGH.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF SCA SEAS ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE
SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.

FRIDAY...WIND BECOMING SOUTH BY NIGHT. SMALL CHANCE OF AN SCA AT
NIGHT.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE,
THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...GAINES/HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...GAINES/HEAVENER
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...GAINES/SZATKOWSKI/HEAVENER
MARINE...GAINES/SZATKOWSKI/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291902
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
302 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FA COVERED IN CLDNS THIS AFTN...AND AREA OF RA HAS SLOWED ITS
PROGRESS EWD. HIGHEST POPS (50-60%) TO RMN AWAY FM THE CST INTO
EARLY THIS EVE...BEFORE SHIFTING E LATER ON. TROUGH OF LO PRES
SFC-ALOFT WILL BE SLO TO EXIT THE CST AFT MDNGT...BRINGING A
GRADUAL END OF PCPN FM W-E. ALSO SLOWED ANY CLEARING BEHIND THIS
SYS AFT MDNGT...AND ADDED PATCHY FG. LOW TEMPS FM THE L/M50S NW TO
60S CSTL SE VA/NE NC. ADDITIONAL QPF MNLY AVGG 1/10TH INCH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR TUE...FA TO BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING TROUGH SFC-ALOFT
OFFSHORE (SHUNTING PRECIP EVENTUALLY WELL E AND S OF THE FA BY
MIDDAY/AFTN HRS)...AND A STRONGER UPR LVL TROUGH PUSHING SE FROM
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. NOT MUCH FORCING WILL REMAIN ACRS THE FA
(EARLY) TUE MRNG. HAVE POPS AOB 14% MOST PLACES...THOUGH MAINTAINING
JUST A SLGT CHC POP ACRS FA SE VA/CSTL NE NC. XPCG P/MSNY CONDS N
AND CNTRL...TO P/MCLDY SE...W/ HI TEMPS MNLY 75 TO 80F.

UPR LVL LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH NEW ENG TUE NGT THROUGH WED...PUSHING
ASSOCIATED TROUGH SFC-ALOFT ACRS FA W/ BKN CLDNS AND MNLY SLGT CHC
POPS (AND MNLY N AND E PORTIONS). OTRW VRB CLDS TO PCLDY. LO TEMPS
TUE NGT FM THE M50S INLAND TO L60S CSTL SE VA/NE NC. HI TEMPS WED
FM THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHORE...TO 75 TO 80F ELSW.

HI PRES FM NEW ENG BUILDS SWWD INTO THE FA WED NGT INTO
THU...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PD OF ENE WNDS. MDLS SUGGEST THAT
INLAND PLACES HAVE LO PROB FOR ISOLD SHRAS (THU) ALONG W/ VRB
CLDS. MNLY PCLDY TWD THE CST. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM THE M50S TO
L60S. HI TEMPS THU FM THE M/U70S N...TO ARND 80F S (THOUGH L70S
XPCD RIGHT AT THE IMMEDIATE CST).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE LOCAL AREA THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT DIGGING A POTENT UPPER LOW
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW
HEADS FOR NEW ENGLAND. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THRU THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. BEHIND THE FRONT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT WEEKEND
FOR DRY WX. HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
70S...EXCEPT MID/UPR 60S MAY BE MORE PROMINENT BY NEXT SUNDAY. LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S THRU FRI NIGHT...THEN COOLING INTO THE 40S
TO MID 50S NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN FOR THE TAF SITES
AS IT DOES SO. CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING RAIN IS LOWEST FOR KORF
SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED PREDOMINATE -RA THERE. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. THE WEAK TROF IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE COAST
BETWEEN 08Z-13Z TUES WITH DRY WX RETURNING IN ITS WAKE. MAY SEE SOME
IFR FOG DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK.

DRY WX IS THEN INDICATED FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. BUT...WILL
NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE EACH
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU TUE NGT. A TROF OF LO PRES
WILL MOVE ACRS THE WTRS AND OUT TO SEA THIS EVENG THRU TUE MORNG.
WINDS WILL BECOME NW OR N ARND 10 KT OR LESS TODAY...N ARND 10 KT OR
LESS TNGT...THEN NE ARND 10 KT OR LESS TUE. A LO PRES SYSTEM WILL
THEN SWING THRU THE NE U.S. AND NEW ENGLAND TUE NGT AND WED...BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST BY THU MORNG. AS A RESULT...NE WINDS
WILL INCREASE A BIT FOR LATE TUE NGT THRU WED NGT...BEFORE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING DURING THU. SEAS COULD REACH 4 TO 5 FT ON THE CSTL WTRS
BY WED MORNG...THEN WILL SUBSIDE LATE THU/THU NGT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...JDM/TMG
MARINE...JDM/LSA




































000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291902
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
302 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FA COVERED IN CLDNS THIS AFTN...AND AREA OF RA HAS SLOWED ITS
PROGRESS EWD. HIGHEST POPS (50-60%) TO RMN AWAY FM THE CST INTO
EARLY THIS EVE...BEFORE SHIFTING E LATER ON. TROUGH OF LO PRES
SFC-ALOFT WILL BE SLO TO EXIT THE CST AFT MDNGT...BRINGING A
GRADUAL END OF PCPN FM W-E. ALSO SLOWED ANY CLEARING BEHIND THIS
SYS AFT MDNGT...AND ADDED PATCHY FG. LOW TEMPS FM THE L/M50S NW TO
60S CSTL SE VA/NE NC. ADDITIONAL QPF MNLY AVGG 1/10TH INCH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR TUE...FA TO BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING TROUGH SFC-ALOFT
OFFSHORE (SHUNTING PRECIP EVENTUALLY WELL E AND S OF THE FA BY
MIDDAY/AFTN HRS)...AND A STRONGER UPR LVL TROUGH PUSHING SE FROM
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. NOT MUCH FORCING WILL REMAIN ACRS THE FA
(EARLY) TUE MRNG. HAVE POPS AOB 14% MOST PLACES...THOUGH MAINTAINING
JUST A SLGT CHC POP ACRS FA SE VA/CSTL NE NC. XPCG P/MSNY CONDS N
AND CNTRL...TO P/MCLDY SE...W/ HI TEMPS MNLY 75 TO 80F.

UPR LVL LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH NEW ENG TUE NGT THROUGH WED...PUSHING
ASSOCIATED TROUGH SFC-ALOFT ACRS FA W/ BKN CLDNS AND MNLY SLGT CHC
POPS (AND MNLY N AND E PORTIONS). OTRW VRB CLDS TO PCLDY. LO TEMPS
TUE NGT FM THE M50S INLAND TO L60S CSTL SE VA/NE NC. HI TEMPS WED
FM THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHORE...TO 75 TO 80F ELSW.

HI PRES FM NEW ENG BUILDS SWWD INTO THE FA WED NGT INTO
THU...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PD OF ENE WNDS. MDLS SUGGEST THAT
INLAND PLACES HAVE LO PROB FOR ISOLD SHRAS (THU) ALONG W/ VRB
CLDS. MNLY PCLDY TWD THE CST. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM THE M50S TO
L60S. HI TEMPS THU FM THE M/U70S N...TO ARND 80F S (THOUGH L70S
XPCD RIGHT AT THE IMMEDIATE CST).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE LOCAL AREA THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT DIGGING A POTENT UPPER LOW
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW
HEADS FOR NEW ENGLAND. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THRU THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. BEHIND THE FRONT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT WEEKEND
FOR DRY WX. HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
70S...EXCEPT MID/UPR 60S MAY BE MORE PROMINENT BY NEXT SUNDAY. LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S THRU FRI NIGHT...THEN COOLING INTO THE 40S
TO MID 50S NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN FOR THE TAF SITES
AS IT DOES SO. CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING RAIN IS LOWEST FOR KORF
SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED PREDOMINATE -RA THERE. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. THE WEAK TROF IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE COAST
BETWEEN 08Z-13Z TUES WITH DRY WX RETURNING IN ITS WAKE. MAY SEE SOME
IFR FOG DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK.

DRY WX IS THEN INDICATED FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. BUT...WILL
NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE EACH
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU TUE NGT. A TROF OF LO PRES
WILL MOVE ACRS THE WTRS AND OUT TO SEA THIS EVENG THRU TUE MORNG.
WINDS WILL BECOME NW OR N ARND 10 KT OR LESS TODAY...N ARND 10 KT OR
LESS TNGT...THEN NE ARND 10 KT OR LESS TUE. A LO PRES SYSTEM WILL
THEN SWING THRU THE NE U.S. AND NEW ENGLAND TUE NGT AND WED...BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST BY THU MORNG. AS A RESULT...NE WINDS
WILL INCREASE A BIT FOR LATE TUE NGT THRU WED NGT...BEFORE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING DURING THU. SEAS COULD REACH 4 TO 5 FT ON THE CSTL WTRS
BY WED MORNG...THEN WILL SUBSIDE LATE THU/THU NGT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...JDM/TMG
MARINE...JDM/LSA



































000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291859
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
259 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A WEAK SYSTEM ON TUESDAY...WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY...WHEN THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN
ARRIVES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BULK OF CIRRUS SHIELD IS STRADDLING THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
IS MOSTLY COVERED WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS. THINK THAT AT LEAST SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT YET
ANOTHER MORNING OF VALLEY FOG. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GOOD
PORTION OF THE REGION RECEIVING RAINFALL TOMORROW...BUT STILL THINK
THAT CONSIDERING THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE IN MODEL
PROFILES...PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS INDICATED.
THAT BEING SAID...HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL NOT CARRY ANY LIKELY POPS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
ALSO SHOW A SMALL AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...AND HAVE ALSO ADDED AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS MORE OR LESS AGREE ON FRONTAL TIMING TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
BOUNDARY NEAR OR THROUGH PIT BY 00Z. WITH CONTINUING FROPA...WILL
KEEP FADING CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH THE LIMITED
MOISTURE...LIKELY TOO LITTLE TO TAKE MUCH ADVANTAGE OF THE ARRIVAL
OF UPPER CLOSED LOW DURING THE NIGHT. HAVE DRY POPS BY SUNRISE ON
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE SOME PATCHES OF LOW CLOUD FORM UP DURING THE
NIGHT...WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP. BLENDED MOS GUIDANCE
INTO PREVIOUS MIN TEMP GRID TO NUDGE VALUES UP A DEGREE OR TWO.

AS HINTED AT BY PREVIOUS SHIFT...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED A MINIMAL POP
FOR SHRA TO THE EASTERN RIDGES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  UPPER LOW
ALONG WITH ITS COLD POOL ALOFT WILL STILL BE EXITING DURING TIME OF
PEAK HEATING.  WHILE THERE IS ENOUGH MIDLEVEL WARM AIR TO PREVENT
SHRA FORMATION FROM PIT ON WEST...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE CAPE PROFILE FOR LOCATIONS LIKE DUJ AND LBE. TO THE
WEST...ANY MORNING LOW CLOUDS WOULD LIFT INTO SCT CU ONLY.  USED NAM
H850 TEMPS TO CONSTRUCT MAX TEMP GRID...ENDING UP WITH VALUES CLOSE
TO MOS.

ONCE UPPER LOW EXITS...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND H500 RIDGING
BUILD IN...GIVING US DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
MAY SEE A FEW MORE CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN RIDGES THAN THE WEST
GIVEN SOME LIGHT EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW.  TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN ABOVE NORMAL. CL

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ECMWF COMING A LITTLE MORE IN LINE WITH GFS AND ENSEMBLES ON TIMING
OF MORE SIGNIFICANT FROPA ON FRIDAY.  GIVEN INCREASED
CONFIDENCE...BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY AND ALSO INSERTED A CHANCE OF
THUNDER WITH THE VIGOROUS NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. SOME DISAGREEMENT
THEREAFTER WHETHER ANOTHER CLOSED LOW SINKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
WILL RIDE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FROM SATURDAY ON FOR NOW. IN
ANY CASE...MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND. CL


&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF TERMINALS THROUGH
THE 24 HOUR PERIOD. HOWEVER...HAVE GONE WITH SOMEWHAT OF A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST...WITH MVFR/IFR MORNING FOG IN SEVERAL
LOCATIONS. AFTER MORNING FOG DISSIPATES...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TOMORROW...WITH GREATER COVERAGE FARTHER TO THE NORTH. AT
THIS POINT...HAVE GONE WITH VCSH AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WDSPRD RSTRNS WL RTN WITH A FRI CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291859
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
259 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A WEAK SYSTEM ON TUESDAY...WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY...WHEN THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN
ARRIVES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BULK OF CIRRUS SHIELD IS STRADDLING THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
IS MOSTLY COVERED WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS. THINK THAT AT LEAST SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT YET
ANOTHER MORNING OF VALLEY FOG. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GOOD
PORTION OF THE REGION RECEIVING RAINFALL TOMORROW...BUT STILL THINK
THAT CONSIDERING THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE IN MODEL
PROFILES...PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS INDICATED.
THAT BEING SAID...HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL NOT CARRY ANY LIKELY POPS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
ALSO SHOW A SMALL AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...AND HAVE ALSO ADDED AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS MORE OR LESS AGREE ON FRONTAL TIMING TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
BOUNDARY NEAR OR THROUGH PIT BY 00Z. WITH CONTINUING FROPA...WILL
KEEP FADING CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH THE LIMITED
MOISTURE...LIKELY TOO LITTLE TO TAKE MUCH ADVANTAGE OF THE ARRIVAL
OF UPPER CLOSED LOW DURING THE NIGHT. HAVE DRY POPS BY SUNRISE ON
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE SOME PATCHES OF LOW CLOUD FORM UP DURING THE
NIGHT...WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP. BLENDED MOS GUIDANCE
INTO PREVIOUS MIN TEMP GRID TO NUDGE VALUES UP A DEGREE OR TWO.

AS HINTED AT BY PREVIOUS SHIFT...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED A MINIMAL POP
FOR SHRA TO THE EASTERN RIDGES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  UPPER LOW
ALONG WITH ITS COLD POOL ALOFT WILL STILL BE EXITING DURING TIME OF
PEAK HEATING.  WHILE THERE IS ENOUGH MIDLEVEL WARM AIR TO PREVENT
SHRA FORMATION FROM PIT ON WEST...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE CAPE PROFILE FOR LOCATIONS LIKE DUJ AND LBE. TO THE
WEST...ANY MORNING LOW CLOUDS WOULD LIFT INTO SCT CU ONLY.  USED NAM
H850 TEMPS TO CONSTRUCT MAX TEMP GRID...ENDING UP WITH VALUES CLOSE
TO MOS.

ONCE UPPER LOW EXITS...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND H500 RIDGING
BUILD IN...GIVING US DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
MAY SEE A FEW MORE CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN RIDGES THAN THE WEST
GIVEN SOME LIGHT EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW.  TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN ABOVE NORMAL. CL

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ECMWF COMING A LITTLE MORE IN LINE WITH GFS AND ENSEMBLES ON TIMING
OF MORE SIGNIFICANT FROPA ON FRIDAY.  GIVEN INCREASED
CONFIDENCE...BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY AND ALSO INSERTED A CHANCE OF
THUNDER WITH THE VIGOROUS NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. SOME DISAGREEMENT
THEREAFTER WHETHER ANOTHER CLOSED LOW SINKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
WILL RIDE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FROM SATURDAY ON FOR NOW. IN
ANY CASE...MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND. CL


&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF TERMINALS THROUGH
THE 24 HOUR PERIOD. HOWEVER...HAVE GONE WITH SOMEWHAT OF A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST...WITH MVFR/IFR MORNING FOG IN SEVERAL
LOCATIONS. AFTER MORNING FOG DISSIPATES...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TOMORROW...WITH GREATER COVERAGE FARTHER TO THE NORTH. AT
THIS POINT...HAVE GONE WITH VCSH AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WDSPRD RSTRNS WL RTN WITH A FRI CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KLWX 291852
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
252 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING A FEW RAIN SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN PORTIONS.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT
SAGS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OR
PERHAPS AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
LATER IN THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 2PM...RADAR INDICATED A WIDE SWATH OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA TO NORTHEAST MARYLAND AND THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY. RAIN AMOUNTS AVERAGE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO ONE TENTH
OF AN INCH.

WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MIDDLE 70S
ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WHERE RAIN SHOWERS DO NOT EXIST AND
THERE ARE A FEW BRIEF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES ARE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 WHERE RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MORE
PERSISTENT SINCE THIS MORNING.

AS THE RAIN SHOWERS MOVE EAST AND PIVOT ACROSS THE MAIN STEM
CHESAPEAKE BAY...DRIER AIR WILL ENSUE BRIEFLY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NOSING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE TUESDAY...A SURFACE FRONT AND ITS
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL NUDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THIS FRONT COULD SPAWN A COUPLE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...GIVEN ANY AMPLE SUNSHINE. WE SHOULD
ENCOUNTER MORE SUNSHINE TUESDAY THAN THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ROLL INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE PIVOTING NORTH OF
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ABATE
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING DURING THE EVENING WITH JUST A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS LEFTOVER ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
RESULTING IN A LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FETCH...HOLDING IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND KEEPING CLOUDS AROUND. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UPSLOPE FORCING COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME RAIN DURING THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...LOWS
IN THE MID-UPPER 50S AND HIGHS 70-75.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DWINDLE QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY BUT SHIFT A BIT
FURTHER EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
WITH NOT QUITE AS MANY CLOUDS EXPECTED AND PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AS COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL
RIGHT AROUND CLIMO NORMS.

CLOUDS INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A LARGE AND DEEP
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...THEN PIVOTS TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
DRIVE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SUBSEQUENT
TRACK INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THIS SETUP WILL DRAG A SEASONABLY
STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AS WELL AS A BIT OF A LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DRIVE A BAND OF SHOWERS...PERHAPS A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN STRONG FORCING IN SPITE OF A LACK OF
APPRECIABLE CAPE. THE 12Z GFS IS QUITE AMPLIFIED /AS IT WAS
YESTERDAY/ SHOWING THE TROUGH TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT IN THE UPPER
LEVELS AND A STRONGER LOW-LEVEL JET RESULTING IN STRONGER FORCING
AND MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAIN PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS.
THE 00Z ECMWF IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG SUGGESTING A BIT LESS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH WEAKER LOW-LEVEL WINDS.

THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY USHERING IN A COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY APPROACH BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT FORECAST MODELS/ENSEMBLES DISAGREE ON TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CIGS AND VSBY CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN AT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TERMINALS THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. IF
ANY REDUCTION IN CIGS AND VSBY OCCURS...IT WOULD BE LATER TONIGHT
AT THE CHO OR PERHAPS THE MTN TERMINALS DUE TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE
FROM LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY, RESPECTIVELY.

VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY UNTIL SHOWERS PUSH IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS PSBL WRN MOST TERMINALS TUE EVE W/ ISO
SHWRS/TSTMS. MOD CONFIDENCE MAINLY VFR WED-THU. WINDS LIGHT E TO
NE TUE NIGHT...AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THU. MORE
CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS PSBL FRI-FRI NIGHT AS STRONG FRONT
APPROACHES.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON...TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.

LOOKING LESS LIKELY FOR SCA CONDITIONS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WEAKER AND FURTHER OFFSHORE WITH
LOW PRESSURE. SCA CONDITIONS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY AHEAD OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY...THEN BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLW
NEAR TERM...KLW
SHORT TERM...KLW/DFH
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...KLW/DFH
MARINE...KLW/DFH







000
FXUS61 KLWX 291852
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
252 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING A FEW RAIN SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN PORTIONS.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT
SAGS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OR
PERHAPS AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
LATER IN THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 2PM...RADAR INDICATED A WIDE SWATH OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA TO NORTHEAST MARYLAND AND THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY. RAIN AMOUNTS AVERAGE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO ONE TENTH
OF AN INCH.

WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MIDDLE 70S
ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WHERE RAIN SHOWERS DO NOT EXIST AND
THERE ARE A FEW BRIEF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES ARE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 WHERE RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MORE
PERSISTENT SINCE THIS MORNING.

AS THE RAIN SHOWERS MOVE EAST AND PIVOT ACROSS THE MAIN STEM
CHESAPEAKE BAY...DRIER AIR WILL ENSUE BRIEFLY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NOSING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE TUESDAY...A SURFACE FRONT AND ITS
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL NUDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THIS FRONT COULD SPAWN A COUPLE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...GIVEN ANY AMPLE SUNSHINE. WE SHOULD
ENCOUNTER MORE SUNSHINE TUESDAY THAN THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ROLL INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE PIVOTING NORTH OF
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ABATE
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING DURING THE EVENING WITH JUST A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS LEFTOVER ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
RESULTING IN A LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FETCH...HOLDING IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND KEEPING CLOUDS AROUND. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UPSLOPE FORCING COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME RAIN DURING THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...LOWS
IN THE MID-UPPER 50S AND HIGHS 70-75.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DWINDLE QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY BUT SHIFT A BIT
FURTHER EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
WITH NOT QUITE AS MANY CLOUDS EXPECTED AND PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AS COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL
RIGHT AROUND CLIMO NORMS.

CLOUDS INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A LARGE AND DEEP
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...THEN PIVOTS TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
DRIVE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SUBSEQUENT
TRACK INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THIS SETUP WILL DRAG A SEASONABLY
STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AS WELL AS A BIT OF A LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DRIVE A BAND OF SHOWERS...PERHAPS A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN STRONG FORCING IN SPITE OF A LACK OF
APPRECIABLE CAPE. THE 12Z GFS IS QUITE AMPLIFIED /AS IT WAS
YESTERDAY/ SHOWING THE TROUGH TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT IN THE UPPER
LEVELS AND A STRONGER LOW-LEVEL JET RESULTING IN STRONGER FORCING
AND MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAIN PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS.
THE 00Z ECMWF IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG SUGGESTING A BIT LESS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH WEAKER LOW-LEVEL WINDS.

THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY USHERING IN A COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY APPROACH BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT FORECAST MODELS/ENSEMBLES DISAGREE ON TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CIGS AND VSBY CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN AT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TERMINALS THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. IF
ANY REDUCTION IN CIGS AND VSBY OCCURS...IT WOULD BE LATER TONIGHT
AT THE CHO OR PERHAPS THE MTN TERMINALS DUE TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE
FROM LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY, RESPECTIVELY.

VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY UNTIL SHOWERS PUSH IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS PSBL WRN MOST TERMINALS TUE EVE W/ ISO
SHWRS/TSTMS. MOD CONFIDENCE MAINLY VFR WED-THU. WINDS LIGHT E TO
NE TUE NIGHT...AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THU. MORE
CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS PSBL FRI-FRI NIGHT AS STRONG FRONT
APPROACHES.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON...TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.

LOOKING LESS LIKELY FOR SCA CONDITIONS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WEAKER AND FURTHER OFFSHORE WITH
LOW PRESSURE. SCA CONDITIONS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY AHEAD OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY...THEN BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLW
NEAR TERM...KLW
SHORT TERM...KLW/DFH
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...KLW/DFH
MARINE...KLW/DFH







000
FXUS61 KLWX 291852
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
252 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING A FEW RAIN SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN PORTIONS.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT
SAGS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OR
PERHAPS AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
LATER IN THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 2PM...RADAR INDICATED A WIDE SWATH OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA TO NORTHEAST MARYLAND AND THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY. RAIN AMOUNTS AVERAGE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO ONE TENTH
OF AN INCH.

WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MIDDLE 70S
ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WHERE RAIN SHOWERS DO NOT EXIST AND
THERE ARE A FEW BRIEF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES ARE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 WHERE RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MORE
PERSISTENT SINCE THIS MORNING.

AS THE RAIN SHOWERS MOVE EAST AND PIVOT ACROSS THE MAIN STEM
CHESAPEAKE BAY...DRIER AIR WILL ENSUE BRIEFLY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NOSING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE TUESDAY...A SURFACE FRONT AND ITS
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL NUDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THIS FRONT COULD SPAWN A COUPLE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...GIVEN ANY AMPLE SUNSHINE. WE SHOULD
ENCOUNTER MORE SUNSHINE TUESDAY THAN THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ROLL INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE PIVOTING NORTH OF
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ABATE
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING DURING THE EVENING WITH JUST A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS LEFTOVER ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
RESULTING IN A LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FETCH...HOLDING IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND KEEPING CLOUDS AROUND. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UPSLOPE FORCING COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME RAIN DURING THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...LOWS
IN THE MID-UPPER 50S AND HIGHS 70-75.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DWINDLE QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY BUT SHIFT A BIT
FURTHER EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
WITH NOT QUITE AS MANY CLOUDS EXPECTED AND PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AS COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL
RIGHT AROUND CLIMO NORMS.

CLOUDS INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A LARGE AND DEEP
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...THEN PIVOTS TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
DRIVE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SUBSEQUENT
TRACK INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THIS SETUP WILL DRAG A SEASONABLY
STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AS WELL AS A BIT OF A LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DRIVE A BAND OF SHOWERS...PERHAPS A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN STRONG FORCING IN SPITE OF A LACK OF
APPRECIABLE CAPE. THE 12Z GFS IS QUITE AMPLIFIED /AS IT WAS
YESTERDAY/ SHOWING THE TROUGH TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT IN THE UPPER
LEVELS AND A STRONGER LOW-LEVEL JET RESULTING IN STRONGER FORCING
AND MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAIN PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS.
THE 00Z ECMWF IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG SUGGESTING A BIT LESS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH WEAKER LOW-LEVEL WINDS.

THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY USHERING IN A COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY APPROACH BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT FORECAST MODELS/ENSEMBLES DISAGREE ON TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CIGS AND VSBY CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN AT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TERMINALS THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. IF
ANY REDUCTION IN CIGS AND VSBY OCCURS...IT WOULD BE LATER TONIGHT
AT THE CHO OR PERHAPS THE MTN TERMINALS DUE TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE
FROM LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY, RESPECTIVELY.

VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY UNTIL SHOWERS PUSH IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS PSBL WRN MOST TERMINALS TUE EVE W/ ISO
SHWRS/TSTMS. MOD CONFIDENCE MAINLY VFR WED-THU. WINDS LIGHT E TO
NE TUE NIGHT...AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THU. MORE
CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS PSBL FRI-FRI NIGHT AS STRONG FRONT
APPROACHES.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON...TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.

LOOKING LESS LIKELY FOR SCA CONDITIONS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WEAKER AND FURTHER OFFSHORE WITH
LOW PRESSURE. SCA CONDITIONS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY AHEAD OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY...THEN BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLW
NEAR TERM...KLW
SHORT TERM...KLW/DFH
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...KLW/DFH
MARINE...KLW/DFH







000
FXUS61 KLWX 291852
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
252 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING A FEW RAIN SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN PORTIONS.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT
SAGS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OR
PERHAPS AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
LATER IN THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 2PM...RADAR INDICATED A WIDE SWATH OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA TO NORTHEAST MARYLAND AND THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY. RAIN AMOUNTS AVERAGE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO ONE TENTH
OF AN INCH.

WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MIDDLE 70S
ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WHERE RAIN SHOWERS DO NOT EXIST AND
THERE ARE A FEW BRIEF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES ARE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 WHERE RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MORE
PERSISTENT SINCE THIS MORNING.

AS THE RAIN SHOWERS MOVE EAST AND PIVOT ACROSS THE MAIN STEM
CHESAPEAKE BAY...DRIER AIR WILL ENSUE BRIEFLY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NOSING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE TUESDAY...A SURFACE FRONT AND ITS
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL NUDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THIS FRONT COULD SPAWN A COUPLE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...GIVEN ANY AMPLE SUNSHINE. WE SHOULD
ENCOUNTER MORE SUNSHINE TUESDAY THAN THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ROLL INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE PIVOTING NORTH OF
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ABATE
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING DURING THE EVENING WITH JUST A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS LEFTOVER ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
RESULTING IN A LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FETCH...HOLDING IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND KEEPING CLOUDS AROUND. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UPSLOPE FORCING COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME RAIN DURING THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...LOWS
IN THE MID-UPPER 50S AND HIGHS 70-75.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DWINDLE QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY BUT SHIFT A BIT
FURTHER EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
WITH NOT QUITE AS MANY CLOUDS EXPECTED AND PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AS COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL
RIGHT AROUND CLIMO NORMS.

CLOUDS INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A LARGE AND DEEP
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...THEN PIVOTS TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
DRIVE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SUBSEQUENT
TRACK INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THIS SETUP WILL DRAG A SEASONABLY
STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AS WELL AS A BIT OF A LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DRIVE A BAND OF SHOWERS...PERHAPS A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN STRONG FORCING IN SPITE OF A LACK OF
APPRECIABLE CAPE. THE 12Z GFS IS QUITE AMPLIFIED /AS IT WAS
YESTERDAY/ SHOWING THE TROUGH TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT IN THE UPPER
LEVELS AND A STRONGER LOW-LEVEL JET RESULTING IN STRONGER FORCING
AND MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAIN PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS.
THE 00Z ECMWF IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG SUGGESTING A BIT LESS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH WEAKER LOW-LEVEL WINDS.

THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY USHERING IN A COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY APPROACH BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT FORECAST MODELS/ENSEMBLES DISAGREE ON TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CIGS AND VSBY CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN AT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TERMINALS THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. IF
ANY REDUCTION IN CIGS AND VSBY OCCURS...IT WOULD BE LATER TONIGHT
AT THE CHO OR PERHAPS THE MTN TERMINALS DUE TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE
FROM LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY, RESPECTIVELY.

VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY UNTIL SHOWERS PUSH IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS PSBL WRN MOST TERMINALS TUE EVE W/ ISO
SHWRS/TSTMS. MOD CONFIDENCE MAINLY VFR WED-THU. WINDS LIGHT E TO
NE TUE NIGHT...AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THU. MORE
CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS PSBL FRI-FRI NIGHT AS STRONG FRONT
APPROACHES.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON...TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.

LOOKING LESS LIKELY FOR SCA CONDITIONS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WEAKER AND FURTHER OFFSHORE WITH
LOW PRESSURE. SCA CONDITIONS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY AHEAD OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY...THEN BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLW
NEAR TERM...KLW
SHORT TERM...KLW/DFH
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...KLW/DFH
MARINE...KLW/DFH







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291836
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
236 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
TODAY...AND SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TROUGH OF LO PRES SFC-ALOFT ENTERING RGN ATTM. -RA SPREADING NNE
INTO CNTRL VA RIGHT NOW...AND AS TROUGH SLIDES E...-RA XPCD TO
CONT/SPREAD E INTO THIS AFTN. MNLY FOLLOWED 11Z/29 RUC W/ PCPN
MOVEMENT INTO THIS AFTN...AND RAISED POPS MOST ERN PLACES (TO
40-60%). TEMPS TRICKY DUE TO CLDS AND LGT PCPN...MAY NEED FURTHER
ADJUSTMENT (DOWN) IN NEXT COUPLE/FEW HRS SHOULD TRENDS CONT. QPF
MNLY AOB 1/10TH INCH.

BY LT THIS AFTN...SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST REGION WILL
SLOWLY PUSH ENE AND ELONGATE INTO THE GULF STREAM ATLC WATERS OFF
THE SE COAST. THIS AREA WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR DEEPER
MOISTURE AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND WILL ACT TO LIMIT QPF ACRS THE
MID ATLC AND AREAS FARTHER N. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS ACRS THE
SRN/ERN PORTIONS OF THE FA INTO EARLY EVE...WHILE THE AM PRECIP
AREAS OF THE PIEDMONT WILL TEND TO DIMINISH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS EVENING...WILL CONFINE HIGHEST CHC POPS TO THE SE...ONLY 20%
OR LESS FARTHER NW...CLEARING OVERNIGHT FROM NW TO SE WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S NW TO THE LWR 60S SE.

FOR TUE...FA TO BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OFFSHORE (SHUNTING PRECIP INTO SOUTHERN NC)...AND A STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING SE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. NOT MUCH
FORCING WILL REMAIN ACRS THE FA. HAVE POPS BLO 14% MOST
PLACES...THOUGH MAINTAINING JUST A SLGT CHC POP ACRS FA SE VA/CSTL
NE NC (IN THE EARLY MRNG). XPCG PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY CONDS N AND
CNTRL...TO PARTLY TO MCLDY SE...W/ HI TEMPS MNLY 75 TO 80F.

UPR LVL LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH NEW ENG TUE NGT THROUGH WED...PUSHING
ASSOCIATED TROUGH SFC-ALOFT ACRS FA W/ PSBL BKN CLDNS AND ONLY
SLGT CHC POPS (MNLY N AND E PORTIONS). OTRW VRB CLDS TO PCLDY...W/
HI TEMPS FM THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHORE...TO 75 TO 80F ELSW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE LOCAL AREA THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT DIGGING A POTENT UPPER LOW
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW
HEADS FOR NEW ENGLAND. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THRU THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. BEHIND THE FRONT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT WEEKEND
FOR DRY WX. HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
70S...EXCEPT MID/UPR 60S MAY BE MORE PROMINENT BY NEXT SUNDAY. LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S THRU FRI NIGHT...THEN COOLING INTO THE 40S
TO MID 50S NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN FOR THE TAF SITES
AS IT DOES SO. CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING RAIN IS LOWEST FOR KORF
SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED PREDOMINATE -RA THERE. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. THE WEAK TROF IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE COAST
BETWEEN 08Z-13Z TUES WITH DRY WX RETURNING IN ITS WAKE. MAY SEE SOME
IFR FOG DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK.

DRY WX IS THEN INDICATED FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. BUT...WILL
NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE EACH
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU TUE NGT. A TROF OF LO PRES
WILL MOVE ACRS THE WTRS AND OUT TO SEA THIS EVENG THRU TUE MORNG.
WINDS WILL BECOME NW OR N ARND 10 KT OR LESS TODAY...N ARND 10 KT OR
LESS TNGT...THEN NE ARND 10 KT OR LESS TUE. A LO PRES SYSTEM WILL
THEN SWING THRU THE NE U.S. AND NEW ENGLAND TUE NGT AND WED...BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST BY THU MORNG. AS A RESULT...NE WINDS
WILL INCREASE A BIT FOR LATE TUE NGT THRU WED NGT...BEFORE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING DURING THU. SEAS COULD REACH 4 TO 5 FT ON THE CSTL WTRS
BY WED MORNG...THEN WILL SUBSIDE LATE THU/THU NGT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...TMG






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291836
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
236 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
TODAY...AND SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TROUGH OF LO PRES SFC-ALOFT ENTERING RGN ATTM. -RA SPREADING NNE
INTO CNTRL VA RIGHT NOW...AND AS TROUGH SLIDES E...-RA XPCD TO
CONT/SPREAD E INTO THIS AFTN. MNLY FOLLOWED 11Z/29 RUC W/ PCPN
MOVEMENT INTO THIS AFTN...AND RAISED POPS MOST ERN PLACES (TO
40-60%). TEMPS TRICKY DUE TO CLDS AND LGT PCPN...MAY NEED FURTHER
ADJUSTMENT (DOWN) IN NEXT COUPLE/FEW HRS SHOULD TRENDS CONT. QPF
MNLY AOB 1/10TH INCH.

BY LT THIS AFTN...SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST REGION WILL
SLOWLY PUSH ENE AND ELONGATE INTO THE GULF STREAM ATLC WATERS OFF
THE SE COAST. THIS AREA WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR DEEPER
MOISTURE AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND WILL ACT TO LIMIT QPF ACRS THE
MID ATLC AND AREAS FARTHER N. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS ACRS THE
SRN/ERN PORTIONS OF THE FA INTO EARLY EVE...WHILE THE AM PRECIP
AREAS OF THE PIEDMONT WILL TEND TO DIMINISH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS EVENING...WILL CONFINE HIGHEST CHC POPS TO THE SE...ONLY 20%
OR LESS FARTHER NW...CLEARING OVERNIGHT FROM NW TO SE WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S NW TO THE LWR 60S SE.

FOR TUE...FA TO BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OFFSHORE (SHUNTING PRECIP INTO SOUTHERN NC)...AND A STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING SE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. NOT MUCH
FORCING WILL REMAIN ACRS THE FA. HAVE POPS BLO 14% MOST
PLACES...THOUGH MAINTAINING JUST A SLGT CHC POP ACRS FA SE VA/CSTL
NE NC (IN THE EARLY MRNG). XPCG PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY CONDS N AND
CNTRL...TO PARTLY TO MCLDY SE...W/ HI TEMPS MNLY 75 TO 80F.

UPR LVL LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH NEW ENG TUE NGT THROUGH WED...PUSHING
ASSOCIATED TROUGH SFC-ALOFT ACRS FA W/ PSBL BKN CLDNS AND ONLY
SLGT CHC POPS (MNLY N AND E PORTIONS). OTRW VRB CLDS TO PCLDY...W/
HI TEMPS FM THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHORE...TO 75 TO 80F ELSW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE LOCAL AREA THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT DIGGING A POTENT UPPER LOW
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW
HEADS FOR NEW ENGLAND. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THRU THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. BEHIND THE FRONT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT WEEKEND
FOR DRY WX. HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
70S...EXCEPT MID/UPR 60S MAY BE MORE PROMINENT BY NEXT SUNDAY. LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S THRU FRI NIGHT...THEN COOLING INTO THE 40S
TO MID 50S NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN FOR THE TAF SITES
AS IT DOES SO. CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING RAIN IS LOWEST FOR KORF
SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED PREDOMINATE -RA THERE. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. THE WEAK TROF IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE COAST
BETWEEN 08Z-13Z TUES WITH DRY WX RETURNING IN ITS WAKE. MAY SEE SOME
IFR FOG DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK.

DRY WX IS THEN INDICATED FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. BUT...WILL
NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE EACH
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU TUE NGT. A TROF OF LO PRES
WILL MOVE ACRS THE WTRS AND OUT TO SEA THIS EVENG THRU TUE MORNG.
WINDS WILL BECOME NW OR N ARND 10 KT OR LESS TODAY...N ARND 10 KT OR
LESS TNGT...THEN NE ARND 10 KT OR LESS TUE. A LO PRES SYSTEM WILL
THEN SWING THRU THE NE U.S. AND NEW ENGLAND TUE NGT AND WED...BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST BY THU MORNG. AS A RESULT...NE WINDS
WILL INCREASE A BIT FOR LATE TUE NGT THRU WED NGT...BEFORE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING DURING THU. SEAS COULD REACH 4 TO 5 FT ON THE CSTL WTRS
BY WED MORNG...THEN WILL SUBSIDE LATE THU/THU NGT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...TMG







000
FXUS61 KPHI 291732
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
132 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL MOVE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TUESDAY WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OUT TO SEA WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA RIDGING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS
NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAIN OFFSHORE WHILE A WEAK LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA ALSO...CREATING A BKN-OVC
SKY OF HIGH CI/CS CLOUDS. EVENTHOUGH THE RADAR MAY APPEAR SOMEWHAT
JUICY THE COLUMN IS VERY DRY AND WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY TO
MOISTEN UP TO ALLOW FOR ANY CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS,
CONTINUED DRY FORECAST ATTM. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
CLOSING DAYS OF SEPTEMBER. READINGS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70`S
TO 80 IN MOST AREAS AND A FEW LOW 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
GIVEN RECENT METAR OBS FOR TODAY AND LAV GUIDANCE WAS ALSO
INCORPORATED. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...MOSTLY WEST OR SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK SFC LOW
MOVES INTO NY STATE. THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF UPPER MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT NO PCPN IS EXPECTED WITH THE LOWER PARTS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL CONTINUE 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
60S OVER METRO PHILADELPHIA...TO THE MID/UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
500 MB: A RATHER STRONG CLOSED LOW SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY THEN SLOWLY DEPART EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. A HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA FRIDAY WILL SEND ONE
OF ITS SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY THEN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW PROBABLY FLATTENS OUT SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES: SEPTEMBER WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 1.5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. CALENDAR DAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN COOL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
BY SUNDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/29 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE 00Z/29 GFS MOS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT-THURSDAY...THEN THEREAFTER (THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD) THE
0522Z/29 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED
AGAINST THE 00Z/29 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH
ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES.
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 21Z/28
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AND THEREAFTER THE
00Z/29 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES...

MODEL AMPLITUDE AND TRACK STILL DIFFER ON THE MIDWEEK CLOSED LOW
SHORT WAVE BUT OVERALL...ENOUGH AGREEMENT EXISTS TO EXPRESS AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS FOR THIS LONG TERM PERIOD.

WE`RE COUNTING ON PROGRESSIVE AND NOT COUNTING ON AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF INVERTED TROF HANG BACK ALA THE 00Z/29 NAM.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING AROUND TO FAVORING ENOUGH
STRENGTH/POTENCY IN THE SHORT WAVE DRIVING SEWD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO MAKE ITS OWN SFC LOW PRESSURE AND SEND IT FROM ROUGHLY
TORONTO TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH PA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN
EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE MIDWEEK.

THE COMBINATION OF THE SOUTHWARD MOVING BACKDOOR COOL FRONT...DEEP
AND LIGHT E-SE FLOW NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY (I78 REGION
NORTHWARD)...PWAT OF 1.25 INCHES...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH SWI
SUBZERO AND THE STRONG SHORT WAVE PASSAGE SHOULD PERMIT SLOW
MOVING SHOWERY RAINS TO DEVELOP IN E PA AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF
NJ TUESDAY AND TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY. WHILE SOME AREAS WILL MISS THE
RAIN...OTHERS COULD EASILY SEE AN INCH.

ITS BOTHERSOME THAT THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN AT TIMES ADVERTISING
2-5 INCHES OF RAIN FROM NNJ TO S OF LI THE PAST 48 HOURS OF CYCLES. THE
IMPLIED MESSAGE...SLOW MOVERS CAN BE DECENT RAIN PRODUCERS. THUNDER
IS IN THE GRIDS NOW FROM NW NJ INTO E PA LATE TUE AFTN/EVENING.

THE PRIMARY FAVORED WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR NEEDED RAINFALL N OF
I78 IS 21Z TUE-18Z WED.

S OF I78...ESPECIALLY THE DELMARVA AND FAR SE PA...VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CHANCE OF A SHOWER BUT NOT
NEARLY AS THREATENING AS FURTHER NORTH.

PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.


THURSDAY...PROBABLY DRYING OUT IN DEVELOPING NNW FLOW ENTIRE
REGION AS THE CLOSED LOW SHIFTS TO THE E OF NEW ENGLAND AND
HEIGHTS WARM WITH THE RIDGE ARRIVING BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLOSED
LOW ALOFT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THU

FRIDAY-EARLY SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY THEN DRY
PROBABLY MOST OF FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS PROBABLE AT NIGHT
OR EARLY SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH AXIS SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

LATER SATURDAY-SUNDAY...DRIES OUT WITH A GUSTY WESTERLY WIND.
COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE THE NEXT BRIEF
WARMING CYCLE!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

HIGH LEVEL VFR CLOUDS AOA 15,000 FEET CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN FROM
THE SOUTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRESSURE TO SOUTH. THIS LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS OFFSHORE KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION TO A
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE, WITH ACY/MIV HAVING THE BEST CHANCE.
DRY TAFS. OVERNIGHT SOME SCATTERED LOWER VFR CLOUDS AROUND 4,000
FEET MAY DEVELOP. CURRENTLY IS IT MORE LIKELY THAT THE HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PREVENT THE FORMATION OF LOWER CLOUDS OR FOG,
EXCEPT AT RDG AND MIV WHICH TYPICALLY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE
FOG. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z LEAVING SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
AOA 4,000 FEET, SO ANOTHER VFR DAY TUESDAY. THE NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, NO
PRECIPITATION THROUGH 00Z WED.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS
KABE/KRDG/KTTN DURING THE MORNING. E/NE WINDS GUST 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR FOG EARLY OTHERWISE VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AOA 4000 FT. N-NW WIND GUST 15 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE WATERS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN
OFFSHORE AND A WEAK LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND MOVE INTO NY STATE TUE. A LIGHT...MOSTLY SWRLY...FLOW WILL BE
ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS MAY TURN ERLY LATE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
UNDER 10 KNOTS EXPECTED. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT. SEAS AROUND 2 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1 TO 2 FT OVER DEL BAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE WITH DEVELOPING EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW
BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NE FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA ALONG THE NNJ COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD TO THE ENTIRE ATLC COAST LATER
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS
ABOVE 22 KT WITH ANY SCA HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY AS OF THIS WRITING.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF SCA SEAS ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE
SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.

FRIDAY...WIND BECOMING SOUTH BY NIGHT. SMALL CHANCE OF AN SCA AT
NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GAINES/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 291732
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
132 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL MOVE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TUESDAY WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OUT TO SEA WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA RIDGING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS
NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAIN OFFSHORE WHILE A WEAK LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA ALSO...CREATING A BKN-OVC
SKY OF HIGH CI/CS CLOUDS. EVENTHOUGH THE RADAR MAY APPEAR SOMEWHAT
JUICY THE COLUMN IS VERY DRY AND WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY TO
MOISTEN UP TO ALLOW FOR ANY CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS,
CONTINUED DRY FORECAST ATTM. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
CLOSING DAYS OF SEPTEMBER. READINGS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70`S
TO 80 IN MOST AREAS AND A FEW LOW 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
GIVEN RECENT METAR OBS FOR TODAY AND LAV GUIDANCE WAS ALSO
INCORPORATED. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...MOSTLY WEST OR SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK SFC LOW
MOVES INTO NY STATE. THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF UPPER MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT NO PCPN IS EXPECTED WITH THE LOWER PARTS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL CONTINUE 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
60S OVER METRO PHILADELPHIA...TO THE MID/UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
500 MB: A RATHER STRONG CLOSED LOW SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY THEN SLOWLY DEPART EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. A HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA FRIDAY WILL SEND ONE
OF ITS SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY THEN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW PROBABLY FLATTENS OUT SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES: SEPTEMBER WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 1.5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. CALENDAR DAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN COOL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
BY SUNDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/29 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE 00Z/29 GFS MOS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT-THURSDAY...THEN THEREAFTER (THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD) THE
0522Z/29 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED
AGAINST THE 00Z/29 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH
ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES.
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 21Z/28
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AND THEREAFTER THE
00Z/29 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES...

MODEL AMPLITUDE AND TRACK STILL DIFFER ON THE MIDWEEK CLOSED LOW
SHORT WAVE BUT OVERALL...ENOUGH AGREEMENT EXISTS TO EXPRESS AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS FOR THIS LONG TERM PERIOD.

WE`RE COUNTING ON PROGRESSIVE AND NOT COUNTING ON AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF INVERTED TROF HANG BACK ALA THE 00Z/29 NAM.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING AROUND TO FAVORING ENOUGH
STRENGTH/POTENCY IN THE SHORT WAVE DRIVING SEWD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO MAKE ITS OWN SFC LOW PRESSURE AND SEND IT FROM ROUGHLY
TORONTO TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH PA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN
EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE MIDWEEK.

THE COMBINATION OF THE SOUTHWARD MOVING BACKDOOR COOL FRONT...DEEP
AND LIGHT E-SE FLOW NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY (I78 REGION
NORTHWARD)...PWAT OF 1.25 INCHES...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH SWI
SUBZERO AND THE STRONG SHORT WAVE PASSAGE SHOULD PERMIT SLOW
MOVING SHOWERY RAINS TO DEVELOP IN E PA AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF
NJ TUESDAY AND TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY. WHILE SOME AREAS WILL MISS THE
RAIN...OTHERS COULD EASILY SEE AN INCH.

ITS BOTHERSOME THAT THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN AT TIMES ADVERTISING
2-5 INCHES OF RAIN FROM NNJ TO S OF LI THE PAST 48 HOURS OF CYCLES. THE
IMPLIED MESSAGE...SLOW MOVERS CAN BE DECENT RAIN PRODUCERS. THUNDER
IS IN THE GRIDS NOW FROM NW NJ INTO E PA LATE TUE AFTN/EVENING.

THE PRIMARY FAVORED WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR NEEDED RAINFALL N OF
I78 IS 21Z TUE-18Z WED.

S OF I78...ESPECIALLY THE DELMARVA AND FAR SE PA...VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CHANCE OF A SHOWER BUT NOT
NEARLY AS THREATENING AS FURTHER NORTH.

PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.


THURSDAY...PROBABLY DRYING OUT IN DEVELOPING NNW FLOW ENTIRE
REGION AS THE CLOSED LOW SHIFTS TO THE E OF NEW ENGLAND AND
HEIGHTS WARM WITH THE RIDGE ARRIVING BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLOSED
LOW ALOFT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THU

FRIDAY-EARLY SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY THEN DRY
PROBABLY MOST OF FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS PROBABLE AT NIGHT
OR EARLY SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH AXIS SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

LATER SATURDAY-SUNDAY...DRIES OUT WITH A GUSTY WESTERLY WIND.
COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE THE NEXT BRIEF
WARMING CYCLE!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

HIGH LEVEL VFR CLOUDS AOA 15,000 FEET CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN FROM
THE SOUTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRESSURE TO SOUTH. THIS LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS OFFSHORE KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION TO A
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE, WITH ACY/MIV HAVING THE BEST CHANCE.
DRY TAFS. OVERNIGHT SOME SCATTERED LOWER VFR CLOUDS AROUND 4,000
FEET MAY DEVELOP. CURRENTLY IS IT MORE LIKELY THAT THE HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PREVENT THE FORMATION OF LOWER CLOUDS OR FOG,
EXCEPT AT RDG AND MIV WHICH TYPICALLY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE
FOG. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z LEAVING SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
AOA 4,000 FEET, SO ANOTHER VFR DAY TUESDAY. THE NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, NO
PRECIPITATION THROUGH 00Z WED.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS
KABE/KRDG/KTTN DURING THE MORNING. E/NE WINDS GUST 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR FOG EARLY OTHERWISE VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AOA 4000 FT. N-NW WIND GUST 15 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE WATERS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN
OFFSHORE AND A WEAK LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND MOVE INTO NY STATE TUE. A LIGHT...MOSTLY SWRLY...FLOW WILL BE
ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS MAY TURN ERLY LATE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
UNDER 10 KNOTS EXPECTED. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT. SEAS AROUND 2 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1 TO 2 FT OVER DEL BAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE WITH DEVELOPING EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW
BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NE FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA ALONG THE NNJ COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD TO THE ENTIRE ATLC COAST LATER
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS
ABOVE 22 KT WITH ANY SCA HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY AS OF THIS WRITING.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF SCA SEAS ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE
SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.

FRIDAY...WIND BECOMING SOUTH BY NIGHT. SMALL CHANCE OF AN SCA AT
NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GAINES/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 291732
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
132 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL MOVE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TUESDAY WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OUT TO SEA WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA RIDGING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS
NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAIN OFFSHORE WHILE A WEAK LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA ALSO...CREATING A BKN-OVC
SKY OF HIGH CI/CS CLOUDS. EVENTHOUGH THE RADAR MAY APPEAR SOMEWHAT
JUICY THE COLUMN IS VERY DRY AND WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY TO
MOISTEN UP TO ALLOW FOR ANY CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS,
CONTINUED DRY FORECAST ATTM. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
CLOSING DAYS OF SEPTEMBER. READINGS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70`S
TO 80 IN MOST AREAS AND A FEW LOW 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
GIVEN RECENT METAR OBS FOR TODAY AND LAV GUIDANCE WAS ALSO
INCORPORATED. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...MOSTLY WEST OR SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK SFC LOW
MOVES INTO NY STATE. THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF UPPER MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT NO PCPN IS EXPECTED WITH THE LOWER PARTS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL CONTINUE 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
60S OVER METRO PHILADELPHIA...TO THE MID/UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
500 MB: A RATHER STRONG CLOSED LOW SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY THEN SLOWLY DEPART EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. A HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA FRIDAY WILL SEND ONE
OF ITS SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY THEN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW PROBABLY FLATTENS OUT SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES: SEPTEMBER WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 1.5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. CALENDAR DAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN COOL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
BY SUNDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/29 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE 00Z/29 GFS MOS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT-THURSDAY...THEN THEREAFTER (THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD) THE
0522Z/29 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED
AGAINST THE 00Z/29 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH
ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES.
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 21Z/28
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AND THEREAFTER THE
00Z/29 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES...

MODEL AMPLITUDE AND TRACK STILL DIFFER ON THE MIDWEEK CLOSED LOW
SHORT WAVE BUT OVERALL...ENOUGH AGREEMENT EXISTS TO EXPRESS AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS FOR THIS LONG TERM PERIOD.

WE`RE COUNTING ON PROGRESSIVE AND NOT COUNTING ON AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF INVERTED TROF HANG BACK ALA THE 00Z/29 NAM.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING AROUND TO FAVORING ENOUGH
STRENGTH/POTENCY IN THE SHORT WAVE DRIVING SEWD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO MAKE ITS OWN SFC LOW PRESSURE AND SEND IT FROM ROUGHLY
TORONTO TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH PA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN
EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE MIDWEEK.

THE COMBINATION OF THE SOUTHWARD MOVING BACKDOOR COOL FRONT...DEEP
AND LIGHT E-SE FLOW NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY (I78 REGION
NORTHWARD)...PWAT OF 1.25 INCHES...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH SWI
SUBZERO AND THE STRONG SHORT WAVE PASSAGE SHOULD PERMIT SLOW
MOVING SHOWERY RAINS TO DEVELOP IN E PA AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF
NJ TUESDAY AND TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY. WHILE SOME AREAS WILL MISS THE
RAIN...OTHERS COULD EASILY SEE AN INCH.

ITS BOTHERSOME THAT THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN AT TIMES ADVERTISING
2-5 INCHES OF RAIN FROM NNJ TO S OF LI THE PAST 48 HOURS OF CYCLES. THE
IMPLIED MESSAGE...SLOW MOVERS CAN BE DECENT RAIN PRODUCERS. THUNDER
IS IN THE GRIDS NOW FROM NW NJ INTO E PA LATE TUE AFTN/EVENING.

THE PRIMARY FAVORED WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR NEEDED RAINFALL N OF
I78 IS 21Z TUE-18Z WED.

S OF I78...ESPECIALLY THE DELMARVA AND FAR SE PA...VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CHANCE OF A SHOWER BUT NOT
NEARLY AS THREATENING AS FURTHER NORTH.

PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.


THURSDAY...PROBABLY DRYING OUT IN DEVELOPING NNW FLOW ENTIRE
REGION AS THE CLOSED LOW SHIFTS TO THE E OF NEW ENGLAND AND
HEIGHTS WARM WITH THE RIDGE ARRIVING BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLOSED
LOW ALOFT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THU

FRIDAY-EARLY SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY THEN DRY
PROBABLY MOST OF FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS PROBABLE AT NIGHT
OR EARLY SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH AXIS SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

LATER SATURDAY-SUNDAY...DRIES OUT WITH A GUSTY WESTERLY WIND.
COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE THE NEXT BRIEF
WARMING CYCLE!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

HIGH LEVEL VFR CLOUDS AOA 15,000 FEET CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN FROM
THE SOUTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRESSURE TO SOUTH. THIS LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS OFFSHORE KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION TO A
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE, WITH ACY/MIV HAVING THE BEST CHANCE.
DRY TAFS. OVERNIGHT SOME SCATTERED LOWER VFR CLOUDS AROUND 4,000
FEET MAY DEVELOP. CURRENTLY IS IT MORE LIKELY THAT THE HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PREVENT THE FORMATION OF LOWER CLOUDS OR FOG,
EXCEPT AT RDG AND MIV WHICH TYPICALLY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE
FOG. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z LEAVING SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
AOA 4,000 FEET, SO ANOTHER VFR DAY TUESDAY. THE NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, NO
PRECIPITATION THROUGH 00Z WED.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS
KABE/KRDG/KTTN DURING THE MORNING. E/NE WINDS GUST 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR FOG EARLY OTHERWISE VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AOA 4000 FT. N-NW WIND GUST 15 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE WATERS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN
OFFSHORE AND A WEAK LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND MOVE INTO NY STATE TUE. A LIGHT...MOSTLY SWRLY...FLOW WILL BE
ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS MAY TURN ERLY LATE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
UNDER 10 KNOTS EXPECTED. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT. SEAS AROUND 2 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1 TO 2 FT OVER DEL BAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE WITH DEVELOPING EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW
BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NE FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA ALONG THE NNJ COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD TO THE ENTIRE ATLC COAST LATER
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS
ABOVE 22 KT WITH ANY SCA HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY AS OF THIS WRITING.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF SCA SEAS ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE
SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.

FRIDAY...WIND BECOMING SOUTH BY NIGHT. SMALL CHANCE OF AN SCA AT
NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GAINES/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 291732
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
132 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL MOVE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TUESDAY WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OUT TO SEA WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA RIDGING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS
NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAIN OFFSHORE WHILE A WEAK LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA ALSO...CREATING A BKN-OVC
SKY OF HIGH CI/CS CLOUDS. EVENTHOUGH THE RADAR MAY APPEAR SOMEWHAT
JUICY THE COLUMN IS VERY DRY AND WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY TO
MOISTEN UP TO ALLOW FOR ANY CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS,
CONTINUED DRY FORECAST ATTM. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
CLOSING DAYS OF SEPTEMBER. READINGS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70`S
TO 80 IN MOST AREAS AND A FEW LOW 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
GIVEN RECENT METAR OBS FOR TODAY AND LAV GUIDANCE WAS ALSO
INCORPORATED. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...MOSTLY WEST OR SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK SFC LOW
MOVES INTO NY STATE. THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF UPPER MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT NO PCPN IS EXPECTED WITH THE LOWER PARTS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL CONTINUE 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
60S OVER METRO PHILADELPHIA...TO THE MID/UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
500 MB: A RATHER STRONG CLOSED LOW SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY THEN SLOWLY DEPART EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. A HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA FRIDAY WILL SEND ONE
OF ITS SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY THEN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW PROBABLY FLATTENS OUT SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES: SEPTEMBER WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 1.5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. CALENDAR DAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN COOL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
BY SUNDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/29 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE 00Z/29 GFS MOS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT-THURSDAY...THEN THEREAFTER (THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD) THE
0522Z/29 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED
AGAINST THE 00Z/29 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH
ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES.
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 21Z/28
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AND THEREAFTER THE
00Z/29 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES...

MODEL AMPLITUDE AND TRACK STILL DIFFER ON THE MIDWEEK CLOSED LOW
SHORT WAVE BUT OVERALL...ENOUGH AGREEMENT EXISTS TO EXPRESS AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS FOR THIS LONG TERM PERIOD.

WE`RE COUNTING ON PROGRESSIVE AND NOT COUNTING ON AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF INVERTED TROF HANG BACK ALA THE 00Z/29 NAM.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING AROUND TO FAVORING ENOUGH
STRENGTH/POTENCY IN THE SHORT WAVE DRIVING SEWD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO MAKE ITS OWN SFC LOW PRESSURE AND SEND IT FROM ROUGHLY
TORONTO TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH PA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN
EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE MIDWEEK.

THE COMBINATION OF THE SOUTHWARD MOVING BACKDOOR COOL FRONT...DEEP
AND LIGHT E-SE FLOW NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY (I78 REGION
NORTHWARD)...PWAT OF 1.25 INCHES...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH SWI
SUBZERO AND THE STRONG SHORT WAVE PASSAGE SHOULD PERMIT SLOW
MOVING SHOWERY RAINS TO DEVELOP IN E PA AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF
NJ TUESDAY AND TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY. WHILE SOME AREAS WILL MISS THE
RAIN...OTHERS COULD EASILY SEE AN INCH.

ITS BOTHERSOME THAT THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN AT TIMES ADVERTISING
2-5 INCHES OF RAIN FROM NNJ TO S OF LI THE PAST 48 HOURS OF CYCLES. THE
IMPLIED MESSAGE...SLOW MOVERS CAN BE DECENT RAIN PRODUCERS. THUNDER
IS IN THE GRIDS NOW FROM NW NJ INTO E PA LATE TUE AFTN/EVENING.

THE PRIMARY FAVORED WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR NEEDED RAINFALL N OF
I78 IS 21Z TUE-18Z WED.

S OF I78...ESPECIALLY THE DELMARVA AND FAR SE PA...VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CHANCE OF A SHOWER BUT NOT
NEARLY AS THREATENING AS FURTHER NORTH.

PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.


THURSDAY...PROBABLY DRYING OUT IN DEVELOPING NNW FLOW ENTIRE
REGION AS THE CLOSED LOW SHIFTS TO THE E OF NEW ENGLAND AND
HEIGHTS WARM WITH THE RIDGE ARRIVING BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLOSED
LOW ALOFT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THU

FRIDAY-EARLY SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY THEN DRY
PROBABLY MOST OF FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS PROBABLE AT NIGHT
OR EARLY SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH AXIS SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

LATER SATURDAY-SUNDAY...DRIES OUT WITH A GUSTY WESTERLY WIND.
COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE THE NEXT BRIEF
WARMING CYCLE!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

HIGH LEVEL VFR CLOUDS AOA 15,000 FEET CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN FROM
THE SOUTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRESSURE TO SOUTH. THIS LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS OFFSHORE KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION TO A
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE, WITH ACY/MIV HAVING THE BEST CHANCE.
DRY TAFS. OVERNIGHT SOME SCATTERED LOWER VFR CLOUDS AROUND 4,000
FEET MAY DEVELOP. CURRENTLY IS IT MORE LIKELY THAT THE HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PREVENT THE FORMATION OF LOWER CLOUDS OR FOG,
EXCEPT AT RDG AND MIV WHICH TYPICALLY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE
FOG. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z LEAVING SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
AOA 4,000 FEET, SO ANOTHER VFR DAY TUESDAY. THE NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, NO
PRECIPITATION THROUGH 00Z WED.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS
KABE/KRDG/KTTN DURING THE MORNING. E/NE WINDS GUST 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR FOG EARLY OTHERWISE VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AOA 4000 FT. N-NW WIND GUST 15 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE WATERS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN
OFFSHORE AND A WEAK LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND MOVE INTO NY STATE TUE. A LIGHT...MOSTLY SWRLY...FLOW WILL BE
ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS MAY TURN ERLY LATE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
UNDER 10 KNOTS EXPECTED. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT. SEAS AROUND 2 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1 TO 2 FT OVER DEL BAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE WITH DEVELOPING EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW
BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NE FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA ALONG THE NNJ COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD TO THE ENTIRE ATLC COAST LATER
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS
ABOVE 22 KT WITH ANY SCA HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY AS OF THIS WRITING.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF SCA SEAS ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE
SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.

FRIDAY...WIND BECOMING SOUTH BY NIGHT. SMALL CHANCE OF AN SCA AT
NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GAINES/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291613
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1213 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH NOON UPDATE...MADE ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO SKY COVER FOR THE
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST.
CIRRUS SHIELD ACROSS THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA IS
SLOWLY MOVING OFF TO THE EAST...KEEPING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
LOWER IN THOSE LOCATIONS. STILL...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COOL FRONT WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY. PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE A CLOSED 50H LOW WHICH MOVING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY MORNING INTO NORTHWEST PA TUESDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE
PRODUCING SOME QPF ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
REMAINS LIMITED. ADDITIONALLY...THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN
AS IT DRIFTS THROUGH. WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST OF LOW
CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHC POPS TUESDAY AFT/EVE.

UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. IT IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A SHOWER COULD POP OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SHOWING AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY SWINGING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING 50H LOW
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO DEVELOP A SHOWER OR TWO. DEEP MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING...SO FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DRY AND WARM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
FIRST REAL SYSTEM TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A MUCH NEEDED SHOT AT
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EVENTUALLY COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CUMULUS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...WITH ANOTHER POSSIBILITY
FOR FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WDSPRD RSTRNS WL RTN WITH A FRI CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291613
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1213 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH NOON UPDATE...MADE ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO SKY COVER FOR THE
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST.
CIRRUS SHIELD ACROSS THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA IS
SLOWLY MOVING OFF TO THE EAST...KEEPING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
LOWER IN THOSE LOCATIONS. STILL...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COOL FRONT WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY. PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE A CLOSED 50H LOW WHICH MOVING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY MORNING INTO NORTHWEST PA TUESDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE
PRODUCING SOME QPF ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
REMAINS LIMITED. ADDITIONALLY...THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN
AS IT DRIFTS THROUGH. WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST OF LOW
CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHC POPS TUESDAY AFT/EVE.

UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. IT IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A SHOWER COULD POP OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SHOWING AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY SWINGING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING 50H LOW
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO DEVELOP A SHOWER OR TWO. DEEP MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING...SO FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DRY AND WARM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
FIRST REAL SYSTEM TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A MUCH NEEDED SHOT AT
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EVENTUALLY COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CUMULUS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...WITH ANOTHER POSSIBILITY
FOR FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WDSPRD RSTRNS WL RTN WITH A FRI CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPHI 291609
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1209 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL MOVE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TUESDAY WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OUT TO SEA WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA RIDGING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS
NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAIN OFFSHORE WHILE A WEAK LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA ALSO...CREATING A BKN-OVC
SKY OF HIGH CI/CS CLOUDS. EVENTHOUGH THE RADAR MAY APPEAR SOMEWHAT
JUICY THE COLUMN IS VERY DRY AND WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY TO
MOISTEN UP TO ALLOW FOR ANY CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS,
CONTINUED DRY FORECAST ATTM. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
CLOSING DAYS OF SEPTEMBER. READINGS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70`S
TO 80 IN MOST AREAS AND A FEW LOW 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
GIVEN RECENT METAR OBS FOR TODAY AND LAV GUIDANCE WAS ALSO
INCORPORATED. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...MOSTLY WEST OR SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK SFC LOW
MOVES INTO NY STATE. THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF UPPER MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT NO PCPN IS EXPECTED WITH THE LOWER PARTS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL CONTINUE 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
60S OVER METRO PHILADELPHIA...TO THE MID/UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
500 MB: A RATHER STRONG CLOSED LOW SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY THEN SLOWLY DEPART EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. A HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA FRIDAY WILL SEND ONE
OF ITS SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY THEN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW PROBABLY FLATTENS OUT SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES: SEPTEMBER WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 1.5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. CALENDAR DAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN COOL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
BY SUNDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/29 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE 00Z/29 GFS MOS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT-THURSDAY...THEN THEREAFTER (THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD) THE
0522Z/29 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED
AGAINST THE 00Z/29 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH
ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES.
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 21Z/28
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AND THEREAFTER THE
00Z/29 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES...

MODEL AMPLITUDE AND TRACK STILL DIFFER ON THE MIDWEEK CLOSED LOW
SHORT WAVE BUT OVERALL...ENOUGH AGREEMENT EXISTS TO EXPRESS AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS FOR THIS LONG TERM PERIOD.

WE`RE COUNTING ON PROGRESSIVE AND NOT COUNTING ON AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF INVERTED TROF HANG BACK ALA THE 00Z/29 NAM.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING AROUND TO FAVORING ENOUGH
STRENGTH/POTENCY IN THE SHORT WAVE DRIVING SEWD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO MAKE ITS OWN SFC LOW PRESSURE AND SEND IT FROM ROUGHLY
TORONTO TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH PA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN
EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE MIDWEEK.

THE COMBINATION OF THE SOUTHWARD MOVING BACKDOOR COOL FRONT...DEEP
AND LIGHT E-SE FLOW NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY (I78 REGION
NORTHWARD)...PWAT OF 1.25 INCHES...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH SWI
SUBZERO AND THE STRONG SHORT WAVE PASSAGE SHOULD PERMIT SLOW
MOVING SHOWERY RAINS TO DEVELOP IN E PA AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF
NJ TUESDAY AND TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY. WHILE SOME AREAS WILL MISS THE
RAIN...OTHERS COULD EASILY SEE AN INCH.

ITS BOTHERSOME THAT THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN AT TIMES ADVERTISING
2-5 INCHES OF RAIN FROM NNJ TO S OF LI THE PAST 48 HOURS OF CYCLES. THE
IMPLIED MESSAGE...SLOW MOVERS CAN BE DECENT RAIN PRODUCERS. THUNDER
IS IN THE GRIDS NOW FROM NW NJ INTO E PA LATE TUE AFTN/EVENING.

THE PRIMARY FAVORED WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR NEEDED RAINFALL N OF
I78 IS 21Z TUE-18Z WED.

S OF I78...ESPECIALLY THE DELMARVA AND FAR SE PA...VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CHANCE OF A SHOWER BUT NOT
NEARLY AS THREATENING AS FURTHER NORTH.

PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.


THURSDAY...PROBABLY DRYING OUT IN DEVELOPING NNW FLOW ENTIRE
REGION AS THE CLOSED LOW SHIFTS TO THE E OF NEW ENGLAND AND
HEIGHTS WARM WITH THE RIDGE ARRIVING BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLOSED
LOW ALOFT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THU

FRIDAY-EARLY SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY THEN DRY
PROBABLY MOST OF FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS PROBABLE AT NIGHT
OR EARLY SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH AXISED SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

LATER SATURDAY-SUNDAY...DRIES OUT WITH A GUSTY WESTERLY WIND.
COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE THE NEXT BRIEF
WARMING CYCLE!

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MORNING FOG WITH LOCALLY MVFR OR PERHAPS SOME HIGH IFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE...BUT OTHER THAN THAT...ANOTHER GOOD FLYING WEATHER DAY ON
TAP. THERE WILL BE MOSTLY BKN-OVC CI/CS CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD
MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT WITH RATHER LIGHT WINDS...CONDITIONS WILL BE
GOOD. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE AN WEAK
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. VFR EXPECTED INTO
TONIGHT...WITH MORE LOCALIZED FOG POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN PATCHY FOG
NEAR SUNRISE TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN IN AFTN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
KABE AND KRDG. SLIGHT CHC OF A LATE DAY TSTM THERE. LIGHT WIND
TRENDING EASTERLY MOST TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MAX
GUST 10-15KT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS
KABE/KRDG/KTTN DURING THE MORNING. E/NE WINDS GUST 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR FOG EARLY OTHERWISE VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AOA 4000 FT. N-NW WIND GUST 15 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE WATERS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN
OFFSHORE AND A WEAK LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND MOVE INTO NY STATE TUE. A LIGHT...MOSTLY SWRLY...FLOW WILL BE
ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS MAY TURN ERLY LATE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
UNDER 10 KNOTS EXPECTED. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT. SEAS AROUND 2 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1 TO 2 FT OVER DEL BAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE WITH DEVELOPING EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW
BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NE FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA ALONG THE NNJ COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD TO THE ENTIRE ATLC COAST LATER
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS
ABOVE 22 KT WITH ANY SCA HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY AS OF THIS WRITING.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF SCA SEAS ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE
SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.

FRIDAY...WIND BECOMING SOUTH BY NIGHT. SMALL CHANCE OF AN SCA AT
NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GAINES/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 291609
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1209 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL MOVE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TUESDAY WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OUT TO SEA WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA RIDGING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS
NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAIN OFFSHORE WHILE A WEAK LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA ALSO...CREATING A BKN-OVC
SKY OF HIGH CI/CS CLOUDS. EVENTHOUGH THE RADAR MAY APPEAR SOMEWHAT
JUICY THE COLUMN IS VERY DRY AND WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY TO
MOISTEN UP TO ALLOW FOR ANY CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS,
CONTINUED DRY FORECAST ATTM. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
CLOSING DAYS OF SEPTEMBER. READINGS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70`S
TO 80 IN MOST AREAS AND A FEW LOW 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
GIVEN RECENT METAR OBS FOR TODAY AND LAV GUIDANCE WAS ALSO
INCORPORATED. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...MOSTLY WEST OR SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK SFC LOW
MOVES INTO NY STATE. THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF UPPER MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT NO PCPN IS EXPECTED WITH THE LOWER PARTS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL CONTINUE 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
60S OVER METRO PHILADELPHIA...TO THE MID/UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
500 MB: A RATHER STRONG CLOSED LOW SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY THEN SLOWLY DEPART EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. A HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA FRIDAY WILL SEND ONE
OF ITS SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY THEN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW PROBABLY FLATTENS OUT SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES: SEPTEMBER WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 1.5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. CALENDAR DAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN COOL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
BY SUNDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/29 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE 00Z/29 GFS MOS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT-THURSDAY...THEN THEREAFTER (THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD) THE
0522Z/29 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED
AGAINST THE 00Z/29 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH
ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES.
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 21Z/28
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AND THEREAFTER THE
00Z/29 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES...

MODEL AMPLITUDE AND TRACK STILL DIFFER ON THE MIDWEEK CLOSED LOW
SHORT WAVE BUT OVERALL...ENOUGH AGREEMENT EXISTS TO EXPRESS AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS FOR THIS LONG TERM PERIOD.

WE`RE COUNTING ON PROGRESSIVE AND NOT COUNTING ON AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF INVERTED TROF HANG BACK ALA THE 00Z/29 NAM.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING AROUND TO FAVORING ENOUGH
STRENGTH/POTENCY IN THE SHORT WAVE DRIVING SEWD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO MAKE ITS OWN SFC LOW PRESSURE AND SEND IT FROM ROUGHLY
TORONTO TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH PA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN
EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE MIDWEEK.

THE COMBINATION OF THE SOUTHWARD MOVING BACKDOOR COOL FRONT...DEEP
AND LIGHT E-SE FLOW NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY (I78 REGION
NORTHWARD)...PWAT OF 1.25 INCHES...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH SWI
SUBZERO AND THE STRONG SHORT WAVE PASSAGE SHOULD PERMIT SLOW
MOVING SHOWERY RAINS TO DEVELOP IN E PA AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF
NJ TUESDAY AND TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY. WHILE SOME AREAS WILL MISS THE
RAIN...OTHERS COULD EASILY SEE AN INCH.

ITS BOTHERSOME THAT THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN AT TIMES ADVERTISING
2-5 INCHES OF RAIN FROM NNJ TO S OF LI THE PAST 48 HOURS OF CYCLES. THE
IMPLIED MESSAGE...SLOW MOVERS CAN BE DECENT RAIN PRODUCERS. THUNDER
IS IN THE GRIDS NOW FROM NW NJ INTO E PA LATE TUE AFTN/EVENING.

THE PRIMARY FAVORED WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR NEEDED RAINFALL N OF
I78 IS 21Z TUE-18Z WED.

S OF I78...ESPECIALLY THE DELMARVA AND FAR SE PA...VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CHANCE OF A SHOWER BUT NOT
NEARLY AS THREATENING AS FURTHER NORTH.

PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.


THURSDAY...PROBABLY DRYING OUT IN DEVELOPING NNW FLOW ENTIRE
REGION AS THE CLOSED LOW SHIFTS TO THE E OF NEW ENGLAND AND
HEIGHTS WARM WITH THE RIDGE ARRIVING BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLOSED
LOW ALOFT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THU

FRIDAY-EARLY SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY THEN DRY
PROBABLY MOST OF FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS PROBABLE AT NIGHT
OR EARLY SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH AXISED SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

LATER SATURDAY-SUNDAY...DRIES OUT WITH A GUSTY WESTERLY WIND.
COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE THE NEXT BRIEF
WARMING CYCLE!

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MORNING FOG WITH LOCALLY MVFR OR PERHAPS SOME HIGH IFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE...BUT OTHER THAN THAT...ANOTHER GOOD FLYING WEATHER DAY ON
TAP. THERE WILL BE MOSTLY BKN-OVC CI/CS CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD
MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT WITH RATHER LIGHT WINDS...CONDITIONS WILL BE
GOOD. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE AN WEAK
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. VFR EXPECTED INTO
TONIGHT...WITH MORE LOCALIZED FOG POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN PATCHY FOG
NEAR SUNRISE TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN IN AFTN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
KABE AND KRDG. SLIGHT CHC OF A LATE DAY TSTM THERE. LIGHT WIND
TRENDING EASTERLY MOST TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MAX
GUST 10-15KT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS
KABE/KRDG/KTTN DURING THE MORNING. E/NE WINDS GUST 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR FOG EARLY OTHERWISE VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AOA 4000 FT. N-NW WIND GUST 15 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE WATERS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN
OFFSHORE AND A WEAK LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND MOVE INTO NY STATE TUE. A LIGHT...MOSTLY SWRLY...FLOW WILL BE
ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS MAY TURN ERLY LATE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
UNDER 10 KNOTS EXPECTED. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT. SEAS AROUND 2 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1 TO 2 FT OVER DEL BAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE WITH DEVELOPING EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW
BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NE FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA ALONG THE NNJ COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD TO THE ENTIRE ATLC COAST LATER
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS
ABOVE 22 KT WITH ANY SCA HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY AS OF THIS WRITING.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF SCA SEAS ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE
SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.

FRIDAY...WIND BECOMING SOUTH BY NIGHT. SMALL CHANCE OF AN SCA AT
NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GAINES/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KLWX 291407
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1007 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS
OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST
TUESDAY...AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SOME HIGH-BASED STRATIFORM RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS PENDLETON AND
HIGHLAND COUNTIES AS WELL AS NELSON...ALBEMARLE AND ORANGE
COUNTIES DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT WILL PROPAGATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN
MARYLAND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS
MORNING.

THE PAST SVRL NGTS I`VE BEEN ON THE LONG TERM SIDE...LOOKING AT
THE WX FOR THE 1ST PART OF THE NEW WK. THE WORD I USED TO DESCRIBE
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WAS "NEBULOUS" - THERE WERE NO MAJOR
SIGNATURES TO LOCK ONTO. AND NOW HERE WE ARE...AT DAY 1...AND THE
PATTERN STILL LOOKS FAIRLY INDETERMINATE.

ONE CLR THING IS THAT TDA WON`T XPRNC THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE OF
THE PAST 3. MOISTURE XNTDS FM THE GULF STATES TO NEW ENGLAND. A
LONG PD W.V IMGRY LOOP SHOWS UPR LVL LOW PRES AREAS ALONG THE GULF
CST W/ A 2ND MOVG INTO OH. THIS COMBINATION IS ALLOWING UPR LVL
MOISTURE TO STREAM E OF THE APLCNHS. HENCE SKIES ARE M CLDY...
WHICH IN TURN HAS CAUSED TNGT`S LOW TEMPS TO BE WARMER THAN THE
PRVS FEW NGTS...AND CUT DOWN ON THE AMT OF FOG.

TEMPS TDA SHOULD BE A FEW DEGS COOLER THAN IN PRVS DAYS DUE TO THE
INCRSD CLD CVR. PCPN-WISE MDLS HV QUITE A DISPARITTY OF POPS. FOR
NHK MET GIVES A 70 POP WHILE MAV GIVES A 20. LATEST LAV GIVES SAME
SPOT A 5 POP!

ALSO LOOKING AT INCOMING EURO. THIS KEEPS THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE SHUNTED OVR THE CAROLINAS/PSBLY INTO SERN VA. THIS IS
ACTUALLY THE SCENARIO I WROTE LAST NGT...AND STILL SEEMS THE WAY
TO GO - ALTHO M CLDY TDA SHOULD BE GNRLY DRY - PERHAPS A FEW LGT
AREAS OF RA IN THE CENTRAL SHEN VLLY/LWR SRN MD.

HIGH TEMPS IN THE MU70S...XCPT A80 IN THE CITIES AND A70 IN THE
HIGHLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS THE DISORGANIZED UPR LVL SHORT WV MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS IT
APPEARS THAT ANOTHER SHORT WV CURRENTLY OVR NRN MN WL BE TRACKING
INTO THE ERN GRT LKS TNGT. IN REPONSE THIS WL HELP TO PUSH THE
CAROLINA LOW OFFSHORE. IF THERE IS A CHC OF RA TNGT THE BEST SHOT
WOULD BE IN LWR SRN MD.

LOWS IN THE 50S...XCPT L60S IN THE CITIES.

THE FOREMENTIONED GRT LKS SHORT WV IS XPCTD TO TRACK ACROSS PA
DURG THE DAY TUE. THIS MAY SPAWN RW/ISOLD TRW IN ERN W.V./WRN MD
DURG THE AFTN. POPS WL HELD TO 30 IN THE NWRN SXN OF THE CWA.
HIGHS GNRLY IN THE U70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE DRIFTING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT
INTO WED. THIS FEATURE SHOULD STAY LARGELY NORTH OF THE MASON-DIXON
LINE AS IT GETS COERCED EASTWARD AND DISSIPATES. THE PRECIP BANDS
ASSOCIATED W/ THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES SHOULD SPREAD SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MTNS AND SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE. KEPT A LOW CHANCE POP FOR NRN PARTS OF THE AREA AND MORE
OF AN OUTSIDE CHANCE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT FOR WED. DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY THE UPPER LOW EXITS...THERE COULD BE MORE CLOUD COVER/LOWER
TEMPS AND MORE OF A DRIZZLY DAY FOR SECTIONS OF THE AREA...ESP IF
SOME WEAK CAD SETS UP.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE ONE-DAY PASSAGE OF A WEAK RIDGE...IN BETWEEN
THE EXITING UPPER LOW AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT. SOME TRAPPED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BRING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE WRN HALF OF
THE AREA...MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT ON
TARGET FOR AVERAGE VALUES W/ PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. FAST ON THE HEELS
OF THIS BRIEF REPRIEVE WILL BE A POTENT AND QUICK-DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.

A COUPLE OF SMALLER UPPER WAVES WILL COMBINE OVER THE ENTIRE LENGTH
OF THE MS RVR VLY LATE THU...SPREADING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH - TENN
VLY AND UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE EARLY MRNG HRS FRI. THE MAIN
RESULTANT VORT MAX WILL START TO DISSIPATE AS IT CROSSES THE SRN
APLCNS AND MOVES TOWARD THE VA TIDEWATER REGION. SLIGHTLY LAGGING
BEHIND BUT NOT LACKING ANY PUNCH WILL BE YET ANOTHER UPPER WAVE -
THIS ONE PACKING THE CANADIAN AIR - WILL SWING IN FROM THE BEHIND
LATER IN THE DAY. A WAVE OF PRE-FRONTAL RAINS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
EAST COAST...INCLUDING OUR REGION...BUT IT DEPENDS ON THIS SECONDARY
INCOMING CANADIAN AIRMASS. THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE
COMING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EAST COAST SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE IF
MUCH OF PRECIP DISSIPATES AND PULLS UP NORTH OF US LATE FRI NIGHT.
THE 00Z EURO DOES JUST THAT...W/ A DEEP 537DM CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE WRN GREAT LAKES - WHICH TAKES THE DYNAMICS OF SYSTEM OFF TO THE
NORTH...ESSENTIALLY SCRAPING THE NRN PART OF THE CWA.

ALTHOUGH OUR HIGHS ON FRI WILL LIKELY REACH THE M-U70S AND THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THRU OVERNIGHT...LOWS WILL STILL ONLY DROP INTO THE
50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE MTNS WILL START TO SEE 40S OVERNIGHT
W/ THE COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR COMING IN...BUT THE FRONT WON`T ARRIVE
QUICK ENOUGH TO REALLY COOL OFF THE AREA - THAT WILL BE THE NEXT
NIGHT. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE APPROACHING ON SAT...SO CONDITIONS
WILL BE PLEASANT W/ HIGHS IN THE L70S AND A DRIER AIRMASS...BUT W/
THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDING OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY - SWEEPING IN
THE COLDER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS...OVERNIGHT LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE U40S AND L50S. ANOTHER ONE-DAY REPRIEVE BEFORE
ANOTHER CLIPPER SHORTWAVE LACKING PRECIP WILL SWING DOWN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES...REINFORCING THE COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THE REMAINDER
OF THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE SOME STRATIFORM
RAIN SLIDE ACROSS CHO TERMINAL DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BUT
CIGS MAY ONLY DROP TO 5K TO 6K. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

CLDS SHOULD HELP TO SUPRESS FOG TNGT. ISOLD TRW ARE PSBL TUE AFTN
IN VNCTY MRB.

AN ACTIVE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...W/ A SYSTEM OR FRONTAL PASSAGE ABOUT
EVERY OTHER DAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL PASS BY ON WED...BRINGING A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS. CONDITIONS CLEARING OUT A BIT ON
THU...WHILE A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT
WILL SLIDE THRU THE REGION LATE FRI. HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE
WEEKEND...BUT COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN AIRMASS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA VALUES TDA THRU TUE.

WEAK LOW PRES ON WED AND A QUIET THU. SLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT ON FRI. THE FRONT WILL BRING NW WINDS BEHIND IT THAT
WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLW
NEAR TERM...KLW
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...KLW
MARINE...KLW







000
FXUS61 KLWX 291407
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1007 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS
OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST
TUESDAY...AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SOME HIGH-BASED STRATIFORM RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS PENDLETON AND
HIGHLAND COUNTIES AS WELL AS NELSON...ALBEMARLE AND ORANGE
COUNTIES DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT WILL PROPAGATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN
MARYLAND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS
MORNING.

THE PAST SVRL NGTS I`VE BEEN ON THE LONG TERM SIDE...LOOKING AT
THE WX FOR THE 1ST PART OF THE NEW WK. THE WORD I USED TO DESCRIBE
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WAS "NEBULOUS" - THERE WERE NO MAJOR
SIGNATURES TO LOCK ONTO. AND NOW HERE WE ARE...AT DAY 1...AND THE
PATTERN STILL LOOKS FAIRLY INDETERMINATE.

ONE CLR THING IS THAT TDA WON`T XPRNC THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE OF
THE PAST 3. MOISTURE XNTDS FM THE GULF STATES TO NEW ENGLAND. A
LONG PD W.V IMGRY LOOP SHOWS UPR LVL LOW PRES AREAS ALONG THE GULF
CST W/ A 2ND MOVG INTO OH. THIS COMBINATION IS ALLOWING UPR LVL
MOISTURE TO STREAM E OF THE APLCNHS. HENCE SKIES ARE M CLDY...
WHICH IN TURN HAS CAUSED TNGT`S LOW TEMPS TO BE WARMER THAN THE
PRVS FEW NGTS...AND CUT DOWN ON THE AMT OF FOG.

TEMPS TDA SHOULD BE A FEW DEGS COOLER THAN IN PRVS DAYS DUE TO THE
INCRSD CLD CVR. PCPN-WISE MDLS HV QUITE A DISPARITTY OF POPS. FOR
NHK MET GIVES A 70 POP WHILE MAV GIVES A 20. LATEST LAV GIVES SAME
SPOT A 5 POP!

ALSO LOOKING AT INCOMING EURO. THIS KEEPS THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE SHUNTED OVR THE CAROLINAS/PSBLY INTO SERN VA. THIS IS
ACTUALLY THE SCENARIO I WROTE LAST NGT...AND STILL SEEMS THE WAY
TO GO - ALTHO M CLDY TDA SHOULD BE GNRLY DRY - PERHAPS A FEW LGT
AREAS OF RA IN THE CENTRAL SHEN VLLY/LWR SRN MD.

HIGH TEMPS IN THE MU70S...XCPT A80 IN THE CITIES AND A70 IN THE
HIGHLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS THE DISORGANIZED UPR LVL SHORT WV MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS IT
APPEARS THAT ANOTHER SHORT WV CURRENTLY OVR NRN MN WL BE TRACKING
INTO THE ERN GRT LKS TNGT. IN REPONSE THIS WL HELP TO PUSH THE
CAROLINA LOW OFFSHORE. IF THERE IS A CHC OF RA TNGT THE BEST SHOT
WOULD BE IN LWR SRN MD.

LOWS IN THE 50S...XCPT L60S IN THE CITIES.

THE FOREMENTIONED GRT LKS SHORT WV IS XPCTD TO TRACK ACROSS PA
DURG THE DAY TUE. THIS MAY SPAWN RW/ISOLD TRW IN ERN W.V./WRN MD
DURG THE AFTN. POPS WL HELD TO 30 IN THE NWRN SXN OF THE CWA.
HIGHS GNRLY IN THE U70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE DRIFTING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT
INTO WED. THIS FEATURE SHOULD STAY LARGELY NORTH OF THE MASON-DIXON
LINE AS IT GETS COERCED EASTWARD AND DISSIPATES. THE PRECIP BANDS
ASSOCIATED W/ THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES SHOULD SPREAD SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MTNS AND SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE. KEPT A LOW CHANCE POP FOR NRN PARTS OF THE AREA AND MORE
OF AN OUTSIDE CHANCE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT FOR WED. DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY THE UPPER LOW EXITS...THERE COULD BE MORE CLOUD COVER/LOWER
TEMPS AND MORE OF A DRIZZLY DAY FOR SECTIONS OF THE AREA...ESP IF
SOME WEAK CAD SETS UP.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE ONE-DAY PASSAGE OF A WEAK RIDGE...IN BETWEEN
THE EXITING UPPER LOW AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT. SOME TRAPPED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BRING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE WRN HALF OF
THE AREA...MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT ON
TARGET FOR AVERAGE VALUES W/ PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. FAST ON THE HEELS
OF THIS BRIEF REPRIEVE WILL BE A POTENT AND QUICK-DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.

A COUPLE OF SMALLER UPPER WAVES WILL COMBINE OVER THE ENTIRE LENGTH
OF THE MS RVR VLY LATE THU...SPREADING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH - TENN
VLY AND UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE EARLY MRNG HRS FRI. THE MAIN
RESULTANT VORT MAX WILL START TO DISSIPATE AS IT CROSSES THE SRN
APLCNS AND MOVES TOWARD THE VA TIDEWATER REGION. SLIGHTLY LAGGING
BEHIND BUT NOT LACKING ANY PUNCH WILL BE YET ANOTHER UPPER WAVE -
THIS ONE PACKING THE CANADIAN AIR - WILL SWING IN FROM THE BEHIND
LATER IN THE DAY. A WAVE OF PRE-FRONTAL RAINS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
EAST COAST...INCLUDING OUR REGION...BUT IT DEPENDS ON THIS SECONDARY
INCOMING CANADIAN AIRMASS. THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE
COMING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EAST COAST SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE IF
MUCH OF PRECIP DISSIPATES AND PULLS UP NORTH OF US LATE FRI NIGHT.
THE 00Z EURO DOES JUST THAT...W/ A DEEP 537DM CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE WRN GREAT LAKES - WHICH TAKES THE DYNAMICS OF SYSTEM OFF TO THE
NORTH...ESSENTIALLY SCRAPING THE NRN PART OF THE CWA.

ALTHOUGH OUR HIGHS ON FRI WILL LIKELY REACH THE M-U70S AND THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THRU OVERNIGHT...LOWS WILL STILL ONLY DROP INTO THE
50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE MTNS WILL START TO SEE 40S OVERNIGHT
W/ THE COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR COMING IN...BUT THE FRONT WON`T ARRIVE
QUICK ENOUGH TO REALLY COOL OFF THE AREA - THAT WILL BE THE NEXT
NIGHT. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE APPROACHING ON SAT...SO CONDITIONS
WILL BE PLEASANT W/ HIGHS IN THE L70S AND A DRIER AIRMASS...BUT W/
THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDING OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY - SWEEPING IN
THE COLDER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS...OVERNIGHT LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE U40S AND L50S. ANOTHER ONE-DAY REPRIEVE BEFORE
ANOTHER CLIPPER SHORTWAVE LACKING PRECIP WILL SWING DOWN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES...REINFORCING THE COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THE REMAINDER
OF THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE SOME STRATIFORM
RAIN SLIDE ACROSS CHO TERMINAL DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BUT
CIGS MAY ONLY DROP TO 5K TO 6K. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

CLDS SHOULD HELP TO SUPRESS FOG TNGT. ISOLD TRW ARE PSBL TUE AFTN
IN VNCTY MRB.

AN ACTIVE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...W/ A SYSTEM OR FRONTAL PASSAGE ABOUT
EVERY OTHER DAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL PASS BY ON WED...BRINGING A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS. CONDITIONS CLEARING OUT A BIT ON
THU...WHILE A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT
WILL SLIDE THRU THE REGION LATE FRI. HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE
WEEKEND...BUT COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN AIRMASS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA VALUES TDA THRU TUE.

WEAK LOW PRES ON WED AND A QUIET THU. SLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT ON FRI. THE FRONT WILL BRING NW WINDS BEHIND IT THAT
WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLW
NEAR TERM...KLW
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...KLW
MARINE...KLW







000
FXUS61 KLWX 291407
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1007 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS
OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST
TUESDAY...AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SOME HIGH-BASED STRATIFORM RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS PENDLETON AND
HIGHLAND COUNTIES AS WELL AS NELSON...ALBEMARLE AND ORANGE
COUNTIES DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT WILL PROPAGATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN
MARYLAND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS
MORNING.

THE PAST SVRL NGTS I`VE BEEN ON THE LONG TERM SIDE...LOOKING AT
THE WX FOR THE 1ST PART OF THE NEW WK. THE WORD I USED TO DESCRIBE
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WAS "NEBULOUS" - THERE WERE NO MAJOR
SIGNATURES TO LOCK ONTO. AND NOW HERE WE ARE...AT DAY 1...AND THE
PATTERN STILL LOOKS FAIRLY INDETERMINATE.

ONE CLR THING IS THAT TDA WON`T XPRNC THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE OF
THE PAST 3. MOISTURE XNTDS FM THE GULF STATES TO NEW ENGLAND. A
LONG PD W.V IMGRY LOOP SHOWS UPR LVL LOW PRES AREAS ALONG THE GULF
CST W/ A 2ND MOVG INTO OH. THIS COMBINATION IS ALLOWING UPR LVL
MOISTURE TO STREAM E OF THE APLCNHS. HENCE SKIES ARE M CLDY...
WHICH IN TURN HAS CAUSED TNGT`S LOW TEMPS TO BE WARMER THAN THE
PRVS FEW NGTS...AND CUT DOWN ON THE AMT OF FOG.

TEMPS TDA SHOULD BE A FEW DEGS COOLER THAN IN PRVS DAYS DUE TO THE
INCRSD CLD CVR. PCPN-WISE MDLS HV QUITE A DISPARITTY OF POPS. FOR
NHK MET GIVES A 70 POP WHILE MAV GIVES A 20. LATEST LAV GIVES SAME
SPOT A 5 POP!

ALSO LOOKING AT INCOMING EURO. THIS KEEPS THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE SHUNTED OVR THE CAROLINAS/PSBLY INTO SERN VA. THIS IS
ACTUALLY THE SCENARIO I WROTE LAST NGT...AND STILL SEEMS THE WAY
TO GO - ALTHO M CLDY TDA SHOULD BE GNRLY DRY - PERHAPS A FEW LGT
AREAS OF RA IN THE CENTRAL SHEN VLLY/LWR SRN MD.

HIGH TEMPS IN THE MU70S...XCPT A80 IN THE CITIES AND A70 IN THE
HIGHLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS THE DISORGANIZED UPR LVL SHORT WV MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS IT
APPEARS THAT ANOTHER SHORT WV CURRENTLY OVR NRN MN WL BE TRACKING
INTO THE ERN GRT LKS TNGT. IN REPONSE THIS WL HELP TO PUSH THE
CAROLINA LOW OFFSHORE. IF THERE IS A CHC OF RA TNGT THE BEST SHOT
WOULD BE IN LWR SRN MD.

LOWS IN THE 50S...XCPT L60S IN THE CITIES.

THE FOREMENTIONED GRT LKS SHORT WV IS XPCTD TO TRACK ACROSS PA
DURG THE DAY TUE. THIS MAY SPAWN RW/ISOLD TRW IN ERN W.V./WRN MD
DURG THE AFTN. POPS WL HELD TO 30 IN THE NWRN SXN OF THE CWA.
HIGHS GNRLY IN THE U70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE DRIFTING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT
INTO WED. THIS FEATURE SHOULD STAY LARGELY NORTH OF THE MASON-DIXON
LINE AS IT GETS COERCED EASTWARD AND DISSIPATES. THE PRECIP BANDS
ASSOCIATED W/ THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES SHOULD SPREAD SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MTNS AND SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE. KEPT A LOW CHANCE POP FOR NRN PARTS OF THE AREA AND MORE
OF AN OUTSIDE CHANCE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT FOR WED. DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY THE UPPER LOW EXITS...THERE COULD BE MORE CLOUD COVER/LOWER
TEMPS AND MORE OF A DRIZZLY DAY FOR SECTIONS OF THE AREA...ESP IF
SOME WEAK CAD SETS UP.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE ONE-DAY PASSAGE OF A WEAK RIDGE...IN BETWEEN
THE EXITING UPPER LOW AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT. SOME TRAPPED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BRING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE WRN HALF OF
THE AREA...MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT ON
TARGET FOR AVERAGE VALUES W/ PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. FAST ON THE HEELS
OF THIS BRIEF REPRIEVE WILL BE A POTENT AND QUICK-DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.

A COUPLE OF SMALLER UPPER WAVES WILL COMBINE OVER THE ENTIRE LENGTH
OF THE MS RVR VLY LATE THU...SPREADING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH - TENN
VLY AND UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE EARLY MRNG HRS FRI. THE MAIN
RESULTANT VORT MAX WILL START TO DISSIPATE AS IT CROSSES THE SRN
APLCNS AND MOVES TOWARD THE VA TIDEWATER REGION. SLIGHTLY LAGGING
BEHIND BUT NOT LACKING ANY PUNCH WILL BE YET ANOTHER UPPER WAVE -
THIS ONE PACKING THE CANADIAN AIR - WILL SWING IN FROM THE BEHIND
LATER IN THE DAY. A WAVE OF PRE-FRONTAL RAINS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
EAST COAST...INCLUDING OUR REGION...BUT IT DEPENDS ON THIS SECONDARY
INCOMING CANADIAN AIRMASS. THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE
COMING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EAST COAST SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE IF
MUCH OF PRECIP DISSIPATES AND PULLS UP NORTH OF US LATE FRI NIGHT.
THE 00Z EURO DOES JUST THAT...W/ A DEEP 537DM CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE WRN GREAT LAKES - WHICH TAKES THE DYNAMICS OF SYSTEM OFF TO THE
NORTH...ESSENTIALLY SCRAPING THE NRN PART OF THE CWA.

ALTHOUGH OUR HIGHS ON FRI WILL LIKELY REACH THE M-U70S AND THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THRU OVERNIGHT...LOWS WILL STILL ONLY DROP INTO THE
50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE MTNS WILL START TO SEE 40S OVERNIGHT
W/ THE COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR COMING IN...BUT THE FRONT WON`T ARRIVE
QUICK ENOUGH TO REALLY COOL OFF THE AREA - THAT WILL BE THE NEXT
NIGHT. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE APPROACHING ON SAT...SO CONDITIONS
WILL BE PLEASANT W/ HIGHS IN THE L70S AND A DRIER AIRMASS...BUT W/
THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDING OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY - SWEEPING IN
THE COLDER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS...OVERNIGHT LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE U40S AND L50S. ANOTHER ONE-DAY REPRIEVE BEFORE
ANOTHER CLIPPER SHORTWAVE LACKING PRECIP WILL SWING DOWN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES...REINFORCING THE COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THE REMAINDER
OF THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE SOME STRATIFORM
RAIN SLIDE ACROSS CHO TERMINAL DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BUT
CIGS MAY ONLY DROP TO 5K TO 6K. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

CLDS SHOULD HELP TO SUPRESS FOG TNGT. ISOLD TRW ARE PSBL TUE AFTN
IN VNCTY MRB.

AN ACTIVE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...W/ A SYSTEM OR FRONTAL PASSAGE ABOUT
EVERY OTHER DAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL PASS BY ON WED...BRINGING A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS. CONDITIONS CLEARING OUT A BIT ON
THU...WHILE A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT
WILL SLIDE THRU THE REGION LATE FRI. HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE
WEEKEND...BUT COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN AIRMASS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA VALUES TDA THRU TUE.

WEAK LOW PRES ON WED AND A QUIET THU. SLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT ON FRI. THE FRONT WILL BRING NW WINDS BEHIND IT THAT
WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLW
NEAR TERM...KLW
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...KLW
MARINE...KLW







000
FXUS61 KLWX 291407
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1007 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS
OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST
TUESDAY...AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SOME HIGH-BASED STRATIFORM RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS PENDLETON AND
HIGHLAND COUNTIES AS WELL AS NELSON...ALBEMARLE AND ORANGE
COUNTIES DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT WILL PROPAGATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN
MARYLAND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS
MORNING.

THE PAST SVRL NGTS I`VE BEEN ON THE LONG TERM SIDE...LOOKING AT
THE WX FOR THE 1ST PART OF THE NEW WK. THE WORD I USED TO DESCRIBE
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WAS "NEBULOUS" - THERE WERE NO MAJOR
SIGNATURES TO LOCK ONTO. AND NOW HERE WE ARE...AT DAY 1...AND THE
PATTERN STILL LOOKS FAIRLY INDETERMINATE.

ONE CLR THING IS THAT TDA WON`T XPRNC THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE OF
THE PAST 3. MOISTURE XNTDS FM THE GULF STATES TO NEW ENGLAND. A
LONG PD W.V IMGRY LOOP SHOWS UPR LVL LOW PRES AREAS ALONG THE GULF
CST W/ A 2ND MOVG INTO OH. THIS COMBINATION IS ALLOWING UPR LVL
MOISTURE TO STREAM E OF THE APLCNHS. HENCE SKIES ARE M CLDY...
WHICH IN TURN HAS CAUSED TNGT`S LOW TEMPS TO BE WARMER THAN THE
PRVS FEW NGTS...AND CUT DOWN ON THE AMT OF FOG.

TEMPS TDA SHOULD BE A FEW DEGS COOLER THAN IN PRVS DAYS DUE TO THE
INCRSD CLD CVR. PCPN-WISE MDLS HV QUITE A DISPARITTY OF POPS. FOR
NHK MET GIVES A 70 POP WHILE MAV GIVES A 20. LATEST LAV GIVES SAME
SPOT A 5 POP!

ALSO LOOKING AT INCOMING EURO. THIS KEEPS THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE SHUNTED OVR THE CAROLINAS/PSBLY INTO SERN VA. THIS IS
ACTUALLY THE SCENARIO I WROTE LAST NGT...AND STILL SEEMS THE WAY
TO GO - ALTHO M CLDY TDA SHOULD BE GNRLY DRY - PERHAPS A FEW LGT
AREAS OF RA IN THE CENTRAL SHEN VLLY/LWR SRN MD.

HIGH TEMPS IN THE MU70S...XCPT A80 IN THE CITIES AND A70 IN THE
HIGHLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS THE DISORGANIZED UPR LVL SHORT WV MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS IT
APPEARS THAT ANOTHER SHORT WV CURRENTLY OVR NRN MN WL BE TRACKING
INTO THE ERN GRT LKS TNGT. IN REPONSE THIS WL HELP TO PUSH THE
CAROLINA LOW OFFSHORE. IF THERE IS A CHC OF RA TNGT THE BEST SHOT
WOULD BE IN LWR SRN MD.

LOWS IN THE 50S...XCPT L60S IN THE CITIES.

THE FOREMENTIONED GRT LKS SHORT WV IS XPCTD TO TRACK ACROSS PA
DURG THE DAY TUE. THIS MAY SPAWN RW/ISOLD TRW IN ERN W.V./WRN MD
DURG THE AFTN. POPS WL HELD TO 30 IN THE NWRN SXN OF THE CWA.
HIGHS GNRLY IN THE U70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE DRIFTING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT
INTO WED. THIS FEATURE SHOULD STAY LARGELY NORTH OF THE MASON-DIXON
LINE AS IT GETS COERCED EASTWARD AND DISSIPATES. THE PRECIP BANDS
ASSOCIATED W/ THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES SHOULD SPREAD SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MTNS AND SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE. KEPT A LOW CHANCE POP FOR NRN PARTS OF THE AREA AND MORE
OF AN OUTSIDE CHANCE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT FOR WED. DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY THE UPPER LOW EXITS...THERE COULD BE MORE CLOUD COVER/LOWER
TEMPS AND MORE OF A DRIZZLY DAY FOR SECTIONS OF THE AREA...ESP IF
SOME WEAK CAD SETS UP.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE ONE-DAY PASSAGE OF A WEAK RIDGE...IN BETWEEN
THE EXITING UPPER LOW AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT. SOME TRAPPED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BRING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE WRN HALF OF
THE AREA...MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT ON
TARGET FOR AVERAGE VALUES W/ PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. FAST ON THE HEELS
OF THIS BRIEF REPRIEVE WILL BE A POTENT AND QUICK-DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.

A COUPLE OF SMALLER UPPER WAVES WILL COMBINE OVER THE ENTIRE LENGTH
OF THE MS RVR VLY LATE THU...SPREADING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH - TENN
VLY AND UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE EARLY MRNG HRS FRI. THE MAIN
RESULTANT VORT MAX WILL START TO DISSIPATE AS IT CROSSES THE SRN
APLCNS AND MOVES TOWARD THE VA TIDEWATER REGION. SLIGHTLY LAGGING
BEHIND BUT NOT LACKING ANY PUNCH WILL BE YET ANOTHER UPPER WAVE -
THIS ONE PACKING THE CANADIAN AIR - WILL SWING IN FROM THE BEHIND
LATER IN THE DAY. A WAVE OF PRE-FRONTAL RAINS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
EAST COAST...INCLUDING OUR REGION...BUT IT DEPENDS ON THIS SECONDARY
INCOMING CANADIAN AIRMASS. THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE
COMING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EAST COAST SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE IF
MUCH OF PRECIP DISSIPATES AND PULLS UP NORTH OF US LATE FRI NIGHT.
THE 00Z EURO DOES JUST THAT...W/ A DEEP 537DM CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE WRN GREAT LAKES - WHICH TAKES THE DYNAMICS OF SYSTEM OFF TO THE
NORTH...ESSENTIALLY SCRAPING THE NRN PART OF THE CWA.

ALTHOUGH OUR HIGHS ON FRI WILL LIKELY REACH THE M-U70S AND THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THRU OVERNIGHT...LOWS WILL STILL ONLY DROP INTO THE
50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE MTNS WILL START TO SEE 40S OVERNIGHT
W/ THE COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR COMING IN...BUT THE FRONT WON`T ARRIVE
QUICK ENOUGH TO REALLY COOL OFF THE AREA - THAT WILL BE THE NEXT
NIGHT. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE APPROACHING ON SAT...SO CONDITIONS
WILL BE PLEASANT W/ HIGHS IN THE L70S AND A DRIER AIRMASS...BUT W/
THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDING OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY - SWEEPING IN
THE COLDER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS...OVERNIGHT LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE U40S AND L50S. ANOTHER ONE-DAY REPRIEVE BEFORE
ANOTHER CLIPPER SHORTWAVE LACKING PRECIP WILL SWING DOWN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES...REINFORCING THE COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THE REMAINDER
OF THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE SOME STRATIFORM
RAIN SLIDE ACROSS CHO TERMINAL DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BUT
CIGS MAY ONLY DROP TO 5K TO 6K. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

CLDS SHOULD HELP TO SUPRESS FOG TNGT. ISOLD TRW ARE PSBL TUE AFTN
IN VNCTY MRB.

AN ACTIVE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...W/ A SYSTEM OR FRONTAL PASSAGE ABOUT
EVERY OTHER DAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL PASS BY ON WED...BRINGING A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS. CONDITIONS CLEARING OUT A BIT ON
THU...WHILE A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT
WILL SLIDE THRU THE REGION LATE FRI. HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE
WEEKEND...BUT COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN AIRMASS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA VALUES TDA THRU TUE.

WEAK LOW PRES ON WED AND A QUIET THU. SLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT ON FRI. THE FRONT WILL BRING NW WINDS BEHIND IT THAT
WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLW
NEAR TERM...KLW
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...KLW
MARINE...KLW







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291352
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
952 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH 945AM UPDATE...BIGGEST CHANGE MADE WAS TO DIMINISH CLOUD
COVER AWAY FROM THE CIRRUS SHIELD DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT
INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE RIDGES. GRADIENT IN CLOUD COVER
SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH SOME CUMULUS
DEVELOPING AWAY FROM THE CIRRUS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN GOOD
SHAPE...AND STILL DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY TODAY. A SHIELD OF CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COOL FRONT WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY. PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE A CLOSED 50H LOW WHICH MOVING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY MORNING INTO NORTHWEST PA TUESDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE
PRODUCING SOME QPF ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
REMAINS LIMITED. ADDITIONALLY...THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN
AS IT DRIFTS THROUGH. WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST OF LOW
CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHC POPS TUESDAY AFT/EVE.

UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. IT IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A SHOWER COULD POP OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SHOWING AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY SWINGING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING 50H LOW
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO DEVELOP A SHOWER OR TWO. DEEP MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING...SO FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DRY AND WARM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
FIRST REAL SYSTEM TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A MUCH NEEDED SHOT AT
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EVENTUALLY COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF MID MORNING...RESTRICTIONS REMAIN AT SEVERAL TERMINALS DUE
TO LOCALIZED FOG. ALL FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY NOON...WITH VFR
CUMULUS EXPECTED AFTERWARDS.

AN APCHG MD/UPR LVL TROF WL BRING CI TO AREA PORTS TNGT...WITH SCT
SC/CU MON. VFR IS EXPD TO CONT...THOUGH SOME PTCHY MVFR/IFR FG IS
EXPD ERLY MON MRNG N AND W OF PIT.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WDSPRD RSTRNS WL RTN WITH A FRI CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291352
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
952 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH 945AM UPDATE...BIGGEST CHANGE MADE WAS TO DIMINISH CLOUD
COVER AWAY FROM THE CIRRUS SHIELD DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT
INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE RIDGES. GRADIENT IN CLOUD COVER
SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH SOME CUMULUS
DEVELOPING AWAY FROM THE CIRRUS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN GOOD
SHAPE...AND STILL DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY TODAY. A SHIELD OF CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COOL FRONT WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY. PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE A CLOSED 50H LOW WHICH MOVING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY MORNING INTO NORTHWEST PA TUESDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE
PRODUCING SOME QPF ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
REMAINS LIMITED. ADDITIONALLY...THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN
AS IT DRIFTS THROUGH. WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST OF LOW
CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHC POPS TUESDAY AFT/EVE.

UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. IT IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A SHOWER COULD POP OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SHOWING AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY SWINGING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING 50H LOW
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO DEVELOP A SHOWER OR TWO. DEEP MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING...SO FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DRY AND WARM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
FIRST REAL SYSTEM TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A MUCH NEEDED SHOT AT
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EVENTUALLY COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF MID MORNING...RESTRICTIONS REMAIN AT SEVERAL TERMINALS DUE
TO LOCALIZED FOG. ALL FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY NOON...WITH VFR
CUMULUS EXPECTED AFTERWARDS.

AN APCHG MD/UPR LVL TROF WL BRING CI TO AREA PORTS TNGT...WITH SCT
SC/CU MON. VFR IS EXPD TO CONT...THOUGH SOME PTCHY MVFR/IFR FG IS
EXPD ERLY MON MRNG N AND W OF PIT.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WDSPRD RSTRNS WL RTN WITH A FRI CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291352
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
952 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH 945AM UPDATE...BIGGEST CHANGE MADE WAS TO DIMINISH CLOUD
COVER AWAY FROM THE CIRRUS SHIELD DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT
INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE RIDGES. GRADIENT IN CLOUD COVER
SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH SOME CUMULUS
DEVELOPING AWAY FROM THE CIRRUS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN GOOD
SHAPE...AND STILL DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY TODAY. A SHIELD OF CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COOL FRONT WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY. PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE A CLOSED 50H LOW WHICH MOVING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY MORNING INTO NORTHWEST PA TUESDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE
PRODUCING SOME QPF ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
REMAINS LIMITED. ADDITIONALLY...THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN
AS IT DRIFTS THROUGH. WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST OF LOW
CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHC POPS TUESDAY AFT/EVE.

UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. IT IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A SHOWER COULD POP OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SHOWING AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY SWINGING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING 50H LOW
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO DEVELOP A SHOWER OR TWO. DEEP MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING...SO FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DRY AND WARM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
FIRST REAL SYSTEM TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A MUCH NEEDED SHOT AT
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EVENTUALLY COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF MID MORNING...RESTRICTIONS REMAIN AT SEVERAL TERMINALS DUE
TO LOCALIZED FOG. ALL FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY NOON...WITH VFR
CUMULUS EXPECTED AFTERWARDS.

AN APCHG MD/UPR LVL TROF WL BRING CI TO AREA PORTS TNGT...WITH SCT
SC/CU MON. VFR IS EXPD TO CONT...THOUGH SOME PTCHY MVFR/IFR FG IS
EXPD ERLY MON MRNG N AND W OF PIT.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WDSPRD RSTRNS WL RTN WITH A FRI CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291352
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
952 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH 945AM UPDATE...BIGGEST CHANGE MADE WAS TO DIMINISH CLOUD
COVER AWAY FROM THE CIRRUS SHIELD DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT
INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE RIDGES. GRADIENT IN CLOUD COVER
SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH SOME CUMULUS
DEVELOPING AWAY FROM THE CIRRUS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN GOOD
SHAPE...AND STILL DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY TODAY. A SHIELD OF CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COOL FRONT WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY. PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE A CLOSED 50H LOW WHICH MOVING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY MORNING INTO NORTHWEST PA TUESDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE
PRODUCING SOME QPF ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
REMAINS LIMITED. ADDITIONALLY...THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN
AS IT DRIFTS THROUGH. WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST OF LOW
CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHC POPS TUESDAY AFT/EVE.

UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. IT IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A SHOWER COULD POP OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SHOWING AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY SWINGING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING 50H LOW
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO DEVELOP A SHOWER OR TWO. DEEP MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING...SO FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DRY AND WARM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
FIRST REAL SYSTEM TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A MUCH NEEDED SHOT AT
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EVENTUALLY COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF MID MORNING...RESTRICTIONS REMAIN AT SEVERAL TERMINALS DUE
TO LOCALIZED FOG. ALL FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY NOON...WITH VFR
CUMULUS EXPECTED AFTERWARDS.

AN APCHG MD/UPR LVL TROF WL BRING CI TO AREA PORTS TNGT...WITH SCT
SC/CU MON. VFR IS EXPD TO CONT...THOUGH SOME PTCHY MVFR/IFR FG IS
EXPD ERLY MON MRNG N AND W OF PIT.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WDSPRD RSTRNS WL RTN WITH A FRI CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 291317
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
917 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL MOVE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TUESDAY WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OUT TO SEA WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA RIDGING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS
NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAIN OFFSHORE WHILE A WEAK LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA ALSO...CREATING A BKN-OVC
SKY OF HIGH CI/CS CLOUDS. EVENTHOUGH THE RADAR MAY APPEAR SOMEWHAT
JUICY THE COLUMN IS VERY DRY AND WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY TO
MOISTEN UP TO ALLOW FOR ANY CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS,
CONTINUED DRY FORECAST ATTM. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
CLOSING DAYS OF SEPTEMBER. READINGS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70`S
TO 80 IN MOST AREAS AND A FEW LOW 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY TO
THE VALUES CURRENTLY LISTED ABOVE, GIVEN RECENT METAR OBS FOR
TODAY AND LAV GUIDANCE WAS ALSO INCORPORATED. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...MOSTLY WEST OR SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK SFC LOW
MOVES INTO NY STATE. THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF UPPER MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT NO PCPN IS EXPECTED WITH THE LOWER PARTS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL CONTINUE 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
60S OVER METRO PHILADELPHIA...TO THE MID/UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
500 MB: A RATHER STRONG CLOSED LOW SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY THEN SLOWLY DEPART EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. A HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA FRIDAY WILL SEND ONE
OF ITS SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY THEN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW PROBABLY FLATTENS OUT SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES: SEPTEMBER WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 1.5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. CALENDAR DAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN COOL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
BY SUNDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/29 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE 00Z/29 GFS MOS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT-THURSDAY...THEN THEREAFTER (THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD) THE
0522Z/29 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED
AGAINST THE 00Z/29 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH
ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES.
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 21Z/28
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AND THEREAFTER THE
00Z/29 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES...

MODEL AMPLITUDE AND TRACK STILL DIFFER ON THE MIDWEEK CLOSED LOW
SHORT WAVE BUT OVERALL...ENOUGH AGREEMENT EXISTS TO EXPRESS AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS FOR THIS LONG TERM PERIOD.

WE`RE COUNTING ON PROGRESSIVE AND NOT COUNTING ON AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF INVERTED TROF HANG BACK ALA THE 00Z/29 NAM.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING AROUND TO FAVORING ENOUGH
STRENGTH/POTENCY IN THE SHORT WAVE DRIVING SEWD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO MAKE ITS OWN SFC LOW PRESSURE AND SEND IT FROM ROUGHLY
TORONTO TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH PA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN
EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE MIDWEEK.

THE COMBINATION OF THE SOUTHWARD MOVING BACKDOOR COOL FRONT...DEEP
AND LIGHT E-SE FLOW NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY (I78 REGION
NORTHWARD)...PWAT OF 1.25 INCHES...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH SWI
SUBZERO AND THE STRONG SHORT WAVE PASSAGE SHOULD PERMIT SLOW
MOVING SHOWERY RAINS TO DEVELOP IN E PA AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF
NJ TUESDAY AND TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY. WHILE SOME AREAS WILL MISS THE
RAIN...OTHERS COULD EASILY SEE AN INCH.

ITS BOTHERSOME THAT THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN AT TIMES ADVERTISING
2-5 INCHES OF RAIN FROM NNJ TO S OF LI THE PAST 48 HOURS OF CYCLES. THE
IMPLIED MESSAGE...SLOW MOVERS CAN BE DECENT RAIN PRODUCERS. THUNDER
IS IN THE GRIDS NOW FROM NW NJ INTO E PA LATE TUE AFTN/EVENING.

THE PRIMARY FAVORED WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR NEEDED RAINFALL N OF
I78 IS 21Z TUE-18Z WED.

S OF I78...ESPECIALLY THE DELMARVA AND FAR SE PA...VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CHANCE OF A SHOWER BUT NOT
NEARLY AS THREATENING AS FURTHER NORTH.

PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.


THURSDAY...PROBABLY DRYING OUT IN DEVELOPING NNW FLOW ENTIRE
REGION AS THE CLOSED LOW SHIFTS TO THE E OF NEW ENGLAND AND
HEIGHTS WARM WITH THE RIDGE ARRIVING BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLOSED
LOW ALOFT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THU

FRIDAY-EARLY SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY THEN DRY
PROBABLY MOST OF FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS PROBABLE AT NIGHT
OR EARLY SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH AXISED SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

LATER SATURDAY-SUNDAY...DRIES OUT WITH A GUSTY WESTERLY WIND.
COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE THE NEXT BRIEF
WARMING CYCLE!

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MORNING FOG WITH LOCALLY MVFR OR PERHAPS SOME HIGH IFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE...BUT OTHER THAN THAT...ANOTHER GOOD FLYING WEATHER DAY ON
TAP. THERE WILL BE MOSTLY BKN-OVC CI/CS CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD
MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT WITH RATHER LIGHT WINDS...CONDITIONS WILL BE
GOOD. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE AN WEAK
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. VFR EXPECTED INTO
TONIGHT...WITH MORE LOCALIZED FOG POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN PATCHY FOG
NEAR SUNRISE TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN IN AFTN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
KABE AND KRDG. SLIGHT CHC OF A LATE DAY TSTM THERE. LIGHT WIND
TRENDING EASTERLY MOST TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MAX
GUST 10-15KT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS
KABE/KRDG/KTTN DURING THE MORNING. E/NE WINDS GUST 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR FOG EARLY OTHERWISE VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AOA 4000 FT. N-NW WIND GUST 15 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE WATERS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN
OFFSHORE AND A WEAK LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND MOVE INTO NY STATE TUE. A LIGHT...MOSTLY SWRLY...FLOW WILL BE
ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS MAY TURN ERLY LATE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
UNDER 10 KNOTS EXPECTED. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT. SEAS AROUND 2 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1 TO 2 FT OVER DEL BAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE WITH DEVELOPING EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW
BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NE FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA ALONG THE NNJ COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD TO THE ENTIRE ATLC COAST LATER
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS
ABOVE 22 KT WITH ANY SCA HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY AS OF THIS WRITING.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF SCA SEAS ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE
SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.

FRIDAY...WIND BECOMING SOUTH BY NIGHT. SMALL CHANCE OF AN SCA AT
NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GAINES/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 291317
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
917 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL MOVE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TUESDAY WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OUT TO SEA WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA RIDGING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS
NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAIN OFFSHORE WHILE A WEAK LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA ALSO...CREATING A BKN-OVC
SKY OF HIGH CI/CS CLOUDS. EVENTHOUGH THE RADAR MAY APPEAR SOMEWHAT
JUICY THE COLUMN IS VERY DRY AND WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY TO
MOISTEN UP TO ALLOW FOR ANY CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS,
CONTINUED DRY FORECAST ATTM. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
CLOSING DAYS OF SEPTEMBER. READINGS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70`S
TO 80 IN MOST AREAS AND A FEW LOW 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY TO
THE VALUES CURRENTLY LISTED ABOVE, GIVEN RECENT METAR OBS FOR
TODAY AND LAV GUIDANCE WAS ALSO INCORPORATED. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...MOSTLY WEST OR SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK SFC LOW
MOVES INTO NY STATE. THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF UPPER MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT NO PCPN IS EXPECTED WITH THE LOWER PARTS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL CONTINUE 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
60S OVER METRO PHILADELPHIA...TO THE MID/UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
500 MB: A RATHER STRONG CLOSED LOW SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY THEN SLOWLY DEPART EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. A HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA FRIDAY WILL SEND ONE
OF ITS SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY THEN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW PROBABLY FLATTENS OUT SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES: SEPTEMBER WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 1.5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. CALENDAR DAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN COOL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
BY SUNDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/29 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE 00Z/29 GFS MOS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT-THURSDAY...THEN THEREAFTER (THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD) THE
0522Z/29 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED
AGAINST THE 00Z/29 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH
ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES.
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 21Z/28
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AND THEREAFTER THE
00Z/29 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES...

MODEL AMPLITUDE AND TRACK STILL DIFFER ON THE MIDWEEK CLOSED LOW
SHORT WAVE BUT OVERALL...ENOUGH AGREEMENT EXISTS TO EXPRESS AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS FOR THIS LONG TERM PERIOD.

WE`RE COUNTING ON PROGRESSIVE AND NOT COUNTING ON AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF INVERTED TROF HANG BACK ALA THE 00Z/29 NAM.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING AROUND TO FAVORING ENOUGH
STRENGTH/POTENCY IN THE SHORT WAVE DRIVING SEWD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO MAKE ITS OWN SFC LOW PRESSURE AND SEND IT FROM ROUGHLY
TORONTO TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH PA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN
EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE MIDWEEK.

THE COMBINATION OF THE SOUTHWARD MOVING BACKDOOR COOL FRONT...DEEP
AND LIGHT E-SE FLOW NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY (I78 REGION
NORTHWARD)...PWAT OF 1.25 INCHES...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH SWI
SUBZERO AND THE STRONG SHORT WAVE PASSAGE SHOULD PERMIT SLOW
MOVING SHOWERY RAINS TO DEVELOP IN E PA AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF
NJ TUESDAY AND TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY. WHILE SOME AREAS WILL MISS THE
RAIN...OTHERS COULD EASILY SEE AN INCH.

ITS BOTHERSOME THAT THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN AT TIMES ADVERTISING
2-5 INCHES OF RAIN FROM NNJ TO S OF LI THE PAST 48 HOURS OF CYCLES. THE
IMPLIED MESSAGE...SLOW MOVERS CAN BE DECENT RAIN PRODUCERS. THUNDER
IS IN THE GRIDS NOW FROM NW NJ INTO E PA LATE TUE AFTN/EVENING.

THE PRIMARY FAVORED WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR NEEDED RAINFALL N OF
I78 IS 21Z TUE-18Z WED.

S OF I78...ESPECIALLY THE DELMARVA AND FAR SE PA...VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CHANCE OF A SHOWER BUT NOT
NEARLY AS THREATENING AS FURTHER NORTH.

PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.


THURSDAY...PROBABLY DRYING OUT IN DEVELOPING NNW FLOW ENTIRE
REGION AS THE CLOSED LOW SHIFTS TO THE E OF NEW ENGLAND AND
HEIGHTS WARM WITH THE RIDGE ARRIVING BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLOSED
LOW ALOFT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THU

FRIDAY-EARLY SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY THEN DRY
PROBABLY MOST OF FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS PROBABLE AT NIGHT
OR EARLY SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH AXISED SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

LATER SATURDAY-SUNDAY...DRIES OUT WITH A GUSTY WESTERLY WIND.
COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE THE NEXT BRIEF
WARMING CYCLE!

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MORNING FOG WITH LOCALLY MVFR OR PERHAPS SOME HIGH IFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE...BUT OTHER THAN THAT...ANOTHER GOOD FLYING WEATHER DAY ON
TAP. THERE WILL BE MOSTLY BKN-OVC CI/CS CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD
MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT WITH RATHER LIGHT WINDS...CONDITIONS WILL BE
GOOD. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE AN WEAK
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. VFR EXPECTED INTO
TONIGHT...WITH MORE LOCALIZED FOG POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN PATCHY FOG
NEAR SUNRISE TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN IN AFTN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
KABE AND KRDG. SLIGHT CHC OF A LATE DAY TSTM THERE. LIGHT WIND
TRENDING EASTERLY MOST TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MAX
GUST 10-15KT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS
KABE/KRDG/KTTN DURING THE MORNING. E/NE WINDS GUST 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR FOG EARLY OTHERWISE VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AOA 4000 FT. N-NW WIND GUST 15 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE WATERS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN
OFFSHORE AND A WEAK LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND MOVE INTO NY STATE TUE. A LIGHT...MOSTLY SWRLY...FLOW WILL BE
ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS MAY TURN ERLY LATE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
UNDER 10 KNOTS EXPECTED. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT. SEAS AROUND 2 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1 TO 2 FT OVER DEL BAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE WITH DEVELOPING EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW
BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NE FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA ALONG THE NNJ COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD TO THE ENTIRE ATLC COAST LATER
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS
ABOVE 22 KT WITH ANY SCA HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY AS OF THIS WRITING.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF SCA SEAS ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE
SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.

FRIDAY...WIND BECOMING SOUTH BY NIGHT. SMALL CHANCE OF AN SCA AT
NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GAINES/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 291317
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
917 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL MOVE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TUESDAY WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OUT TO SEA WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA RIDGING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS
NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAIN OFFSHORE WHILE A WEAK LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA ALSO...CREATING A BKN-OVC
SKY OF HIGH CI/CS CLOUDS. EVENTHOUGH THE RADAR MAY APPEAR SOMEWHAT
JUICY THE COLUMN IS VERY DRY AND WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY TO
MOISTEN UP TO ALLOW FOR ANY CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS,
CONTINUED DRY FORECAST ATTM. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
CLOSING DAYS OF SEPTEMBER. READINGS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70`S
TO 80 IN MOST AREAS AND A FEW LOW 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY TO
THE VALUES CURRENTLY LISTED ABOVE, GIVEN RECENT METAR OBS FOR
TODAY AND LAV GUIDANCE WAS ALSO INCORPORATED. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...MOSTLY WEST OR SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK SFC LOW
MOVES INTO NY STATE. THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF UPPER MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT NO PCPN IS EXPECTED WITH THE LOWER PARTS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL CONTINUE 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
60S OVER METRO PHILADELPHIA...TO THE MID/UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
500 MB: A RATHER STRONG CLOSED LOW SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY THEN SLOWLY DEPART EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. A HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA FRIDAY WILL SEND ONE
OF ITS SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY THEN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW PROBABLY FLATTENS OUT SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES: SEPTEMBER WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 1.5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. CALENDAR DAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN COOL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
BY SUNDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/29 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE 00Z/29 GFS MOS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT-THURSDAY...THEN THEREAFTER (THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD) THE
0522Z/29 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED
AGAINST THE 00Z/29 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH
ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES.
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 21Z/28
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AND THEREAFTER THE
00Z/29 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES...

MODEL AMPLITUDE AND TRACK STILL DIFFER ON THE MIDWEEK CLOSED LOW
SHORT WAVE BUT OVERALL...ENOUGH AGREEMENT EXISTS TO EXPRESS AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS FOR THIS LONG TERM PERIOD.

WE`RE COUNTING ON PROGRESSIVE AND NOT COUNTING ON AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF INVERTED TROF HANG BACK ALA THE 00Z/29 NAM.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING AROUND TO FAVORING ENOUGH
STRENGTH/POTENCY IN THE SHORT WAVE DRIVING SEWD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO MAKE ITS OWN SFC LOW PRESSURE AND SEND IT FROM ROUGHLY
TORONTO TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH PA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN
EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE MIDWEEK.

THE COMBINATION OF THE SOUTHWARD MOVING BACKDOOR COOL FRONT...DEEP
AND LIGHT E-SE FLOW NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY (I78 REGION
NORTHWARD)...PWAT OF 1.25 INCHES...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH SWI
SUBZERO AND THE STRONG SHORT WAVE PASSAGE SHOULD PERMIT SLOW
MOVING SHOWERY RAINS TO DEVELOP IN E PA AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF
NJ TUESDAY AND TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY. WHILE SOME AREAS WILL MISS THE
RAIN...OTHERS COULD EASILY SEE AN INCH.

ITS BOTHERSOME THAT THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN AT TIMES ADVERTISING
2-5 INCHES OF RAIN FROM NNJ TO S OF LI THE PAST 48 HOURS OF CYCLES. THE
IMPLIED MESSAGE...SLOW MOVERS CAN BE DECENT RAIN PRODUCERS. THUNDER
IS IN THE GRIDS NOW FROM NW NJ INTO E PA LATE TUE AFTN/EVENING.

THE PRIMARY FAVORED WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR NEEDED RAINFALL N OF
I78 IS 21Z TUE-18Z WED.

S OF I78...ESPECIALLY THE DELMARVA AND FAR SE PA...VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CHANCE OF A SHOWER BUT NOT
NEARLY AS THREATENING AS FURTHER NORTH.

PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.


THURSDAY...PROBABLY DRYING OUT IN DEVELOPING NNW FLOW ENTIRE
REGION AS THE CLOSED LOW SHIFTS TO THE E OF NEW ENGLAND AND
HEIGHTS WARM WITH THE RIDGE ARRIVING BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLOSED
LOW ALOFT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THU

FRIDAY-EARLY SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY THEN DRY
PROBABLY MOST OF FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS PROBABLE AT NIGHT
OR EARLY SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH AXISED SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

LATER SATURDAY-SUNDAY...DRIES OUT WITH A GUSTY WESTERLY WIND.
COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE THE NEXT BRIEF
WARMING CYCLE!

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MORNING FOG WITH LOCALLY MVFR OR PERHAPS SOME HIGH IFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE...BUT OTHER THAN THAT...ANOTHER GOOD FLYING WEATHER DAY ON
TAP. THERE WILL BE MOSTLY BKN-OVC CI/CS CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD
MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT WITH RATHER LIGHT WINDS...CONDITIONS WILL BE
GOOD. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE AN WEAK
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. VFR EXPECTED INTO
TONIGHT...WITH MORE LOCALIZED FOG POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN PATCHY FOG
NEAR SUNRISE TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN IN AFTN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
KABE AND KRDG. SLIGHT CHC OF A LATE DAY TSTM THERE. LIGHT WIND
TRENDING EASTERLY MOST TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MAX
GUST 10-15KT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS
KABE/KRDG/KTTN DURING THE MORNING. E/NE WINDS GUST 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR FOG EARLY OTHERWISE VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AOA 4000 FT. N-NW WIND GUST 15 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE WATERS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN
OFFSHORE AND A WEAK LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND MOVE INTO NY STATE TUE. A LIGHT...MOSTLY SWRLY...FLOW WILL BE
ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS MAY TURN ERLY LATE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
UNDER 10 KNOTS EXPECTED. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT. SEAS AROUND 2 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1 TO 2 FT OVER DEL BAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE WITH DEVELOPING EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW
BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NE FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA ALONG THE NNJ COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD TO THE ENTIRE ATLC COAST LATER
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS
ABOVE 22 KT WITH ANY SCA HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY AS OF THIS WRITING.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF SCA SEAS ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE
SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.

FRIDAY...WIND BECOMING SOUTH BY NIGHT. SMALL CHANCE OF AN SCA AT
NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GAINES/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 291317
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
917 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL MOVE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TUESDAY WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OUT TO SEA WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA RIDGING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS
NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAIN OFFSHORE WHILE A WEAK LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA ALSO...CREATING A BKN-OVC
SKY OF HIGH CI/CS CLOUDS. EVENTHOUGH THE RADAR MAY APPEAR SOMEWHAT
JUICY THE COLUMN IS VERY DRY AND WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY TO
MOISTEN UP TO ALLOW FOR ANY CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS,
CONTINUED DRY FORECAST ATTM. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
CLOSING DAYS OF SEPTEMBER. READINGS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70`S
TO 80 IN MOST AREAS AND A FEW LOW 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY TO
THE VALUES CURRENTLY LISTED ABOVE, GIVEN RECENT METAR OBS FOR
TODAY AND LAV GUIDANCE WAS ALSO INCORPORATED. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...MOSTLY WEST OR SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK SFC LOW
MOVES INTO NY STATE. THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF UPPER MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT NO PCPN IS EXPECTED WITH THE LOWER PARTS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL CONTINUE 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
60S OVER METRO PHILADELPHIA...TO THE MID/UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
500 MB: A RATHER STRONG CLOSED LOW SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY THEN SLOWLY DEPART EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. A HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA FRIDAY WILL SEND ONE
OF ITS SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY THEN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW PROBABLY FLATTENS OUT SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES: SEPTEMBER WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 1.5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. CALENDAR DAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN COOL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
BY SUNDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/29 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE 00Z/29 GFS MOS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT-THURSDAY...THEN THEREAFTER (THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD) THE
0522Z/29 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED
AGAINST THE 00Z/29 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH
ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES.
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 21Z/28
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AND THEREAFTER THE
00Z/29 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES...

MODEL AMPLITUDE AND TRACK STILL DIFFER ON THE MIDWEEK CLOSED LOW
SHORT WAVE BUT OVERALL...ENOUGH AGREEMENT EXISTS TO EXPRESS AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS FOR THIS LONG TERM PERIOD.

WE`RE COUNTING ON PROGRESSIVE AND NOT COUNTING ON AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF INVERTED TROF HANG BACK ALA THE 00Z/29 NAM.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING AROUND TO FAVORING ENOUGH
STRENGTH/POTENCY IN THE SHORT WAVE DRIVING SEWD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO MAKE ITS OWN SFC LOW PRESSURE AND SEND IT FROM ROUGHLY
TORONTO TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH PA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN
EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE MIDWEEK.

THE COMBINATION OF THE SOUTHWARD MOVING BACKDOOR COOL FRONT...DEEP
AND LIGHT E-SE FLOW NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY (I78 REGION
NORTHWARD)...PWAT OF 1.25 INCHES...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH SWI
SUBZERO AND THE STRONG SHORT WAVE PASSAGE SHOULD PERMIT SLOW
MOVING SHOWERY RAINS TO DEVELOP IN E PA AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF
NJ TUESDAY AND TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY. WHILE SOME AREAS WILL MISS THE
RAIN...OTHERS COULD EASILY SEE AN INCH.

ITS BOTHERSOME THAT THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN AT TIMES ADVERTISING
2-5 INCHES OF RAIN FROM NNJ TO S OF LI THE PAST 48 HOURS OF CYCLES. THE
IMPLIED MESSAGE...SLOW MOVERS CAN BE DECENT RAIN PRODUCERS. THUNDER
IS IN THE GRIDS NOW FROM NW NJ INTO E PA LATE TUE AFTN/EVENING.

THE PRIMARY FAVORED WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR NEEDED RAINFALL N OF
I78 IS 21Z TUE-18Z WED.

S OF I78...ESPECIALLY THE DELMARVA AND FAR SE PA...VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CHANCE OF A SHOWER BUT NOT
NEARLY AS THREATENING AS FURTHER NORTH.

PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.


THURSDAY...PROBABLY DRYING OUT IN DEVELOPING NNW FLOW ENTIRE
REGION AS THE CLOSED LOW SHIFTS TO THE E OF NEW ENGLAND AND
HEIGHTS WARM WITH THE RIDGE ARRIVING BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLOSED
LOW ALOFT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THU

FRIDAY-EARLY SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY THEN DRY
PROBABLY MOST OF FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS PROBABLE AT NIGHT
OR EARLY SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH AXISED SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

LATER SATURDAY-SUNDAY...DRIES OUT WITH A GUSTY WESTERLY WIND.
COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE THE NEXT BRIEF
WARMING CYCLE!

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MORNING FOG WITH LOCALLY MVFR OR PERHAPS SOME HIGH IFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE...BUT OTHER THAN THAT...ANOTHER GOOD FLYING WEATHER DAY ON
TAP. THERE WILL BE MOSTLY BKN-OVC CI/CS CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD
MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT WITH RATHER LIGHT WINDS...CONDITIONS WILL BE
GOOD. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE AN WEAK
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. VFR EXPECTED INTO
TONIGHT...WITH MORE LOCALIZED FOG POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN PATCHY FOG
NEAR SUNRISE TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN IN AFTN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
KABE AND KRDG. SLIGHT CHC OF A LATE DAY TSTM THERE. LIGHT WIND
TRENDING EASTERLY MOST TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MAX
GUST 10-15KT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS
KABE/KRDG/KTTN DURING THE MORNING. E/NE WINDS GUST 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR FOG EARLY OTHERWISE VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AOA 4000 FT. N-NW WIND GUST 15 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE WATERS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN
OFFSHORE AND A WEAK LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND MOVE INTO NY STATE TUE. A LIGHT...MOSTLY SWRLY...FLOW WILL BE
ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS MAY TURN ERLY LATE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
UNDER 10 KNOTS EXPECTED. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT. SEAS AROUND 2 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1 TO 2 FT OVER DEL BAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE WITH DEVELOPING EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW
BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NE FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA ALONG THE NNJ COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD TO THE ENTIRE ATLC COAST LATER
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS
ABOVE 22 KT WITH ANY SCA HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY AS OF THIS WRITING.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF SCA SEAS ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE
SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.

FRIDAY...WIND BECOMING SOUTH BY NIGHT. SMALL CHANCE OF AN SCA AT
NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GAINES/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291256
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
856 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
TODAY...AND SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TROUGH OF LO PRES SFC-ALOFT ENTERING RGN ATTM. -RA SPREADING NNE
INTO CNTRL VA RIGHT NOW...AND AS TROUGH SLIDES E...-RA XPCD TO
CONT/SPREAD E INTO THIS AFTN. MNLY FOLLOWED 11Z/29 RUC W/ PCPN
MOVEMENT INTO THIS AFTN...AND RAISED POPS MOST ERN PLACES (TO
40-60%). TEMPS TRICKY DUE TO CLDS AND LGT PCPN...MAY NEED FURTHER
ADJUSTMENT (DOWN) IN NEXT COUPLE/FEW HRS SHOULD TRENDS CONT. QPF
MNLY AOB 1/10TH INCH.

BY LT THIS AFTN...SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST REGION WILL
SLOWLY PUSH ENE AND ELONGATE INTO THE GULF STREAM ATLC WATERS OFF
THE SE COAST. THIS AREA WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR DEEPER
MOISTURE AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND WILL ACT TO LIMIT QPF ACRS THE
MID ATLC AND AREAS FARTHER N. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS ACRS THE
SRN/ERN PORTIONS OF THE FA INTO EARLY EVE...WHILE THE AM PRECIP
AREAS OF THE PIEDMONT WILL TEND TO DIMINISH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS EVENING...WILL CONFINE HIGHEST CHC POPS TO THE SE...ONLY 20%
OR LESS FARTHER NW...CLEARING OVERNIGHT FROM NW TO SE WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S NW TO THE LWR 60S SE.

FOR TUE...FA TO BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OFFSHORE (SHUNTING PRECIP INTO SOUTHERN NC)...AND A STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING SE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. NOT MUCH
FORCING WILL REMAIN ACRS THE FA. HAVE POPS BLO 14% MOST
PLACES...THOUGH MAINTAINING JUST A SLGT CHC POP ACRS FA SE VA/CSTL
NE NC (IN THE EARLY MRNG). XPCG PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY CONDS N AND
CNTRL...TO PARTLY TO MCLDY SE...W/ HI TEMPS MNLY 75 TO 80F.

UPR LVL LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH NEW ENG TUE NGT THROUGH WED...PUSHING
ASSOCIATED TROUGH SFC-ALOFT ACRS FA W/ PSBL BKN CLDNS AND ONLY
SLGT CHC POPS (MNLY N AND E PORTIONS). OTRW VRB CLDS TO PCLDY...W/
HI TEMPS FM THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHORE...TO 75 TO 80F ELSW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE LOCAL AREA THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT DIGGING A POTENT UPPER LOW
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW
HEADS FOR NEW ENGLAND. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THRU THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. BEHIND THE FRONT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT WEEKEND
FOR DRY WX. HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
70S...EXCEPT MID/UPR 60S MAY BE MORE PROMINENT BY NEXT SUNDAY. LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S THRU FRI NIGHT...THEN COOLING INTO THE 40S
TO MID 50S NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISLTD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THRU EARLY THIS MORNG...OTHERWISE EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO TUE MORNG...DESPITE WEAK TROF
APPROACHING AND MOVNG ACRS THE REGION. MODELS INDICATING DEEPEST
LO LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SE STATES. SO...WILL
ONLY HAVE -RA WITH A VFR CIG IN ECG TAF. DRY WX IS THEN INDICATED
FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. BUT...WILL NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS
OF FOG OR STRATUS ARND SUNRISE EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU TUE NGT. A TROF OF LO PRES
WILL MOVE ACRS THE WTRS AND OUT TO SEA THIS EVENG THRU TUE MORNG.
WINDS WILL BECOME NW OR N ARND 10 KT OR LESS TODAY...N ARND 10 KT OR
LESS TNGT...THEN NE ARND 10 KT OR LESS TUE. A LO PRES SYSTEM WILL
THEN SWING THRU THE NE U.S. AND NEW ENGLAND TUE NGT AND WED...BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST BY THU MORNG. AS A RESULT...NE WINDS
WILL INCREASE A BIT FOR LATE TUE NGT THRU WED NGT...BEFORE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING DURING THU. SEAS COULD REACH 4 TO 5 FT ON THE CSTL WTRS
BY WED MORNG...THEN WILL SUBSIDE LATE THU/THU NGT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG












000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291256
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
856 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
TODAY...AND SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TROUGH OF LO PRES SFC-ALOFT ENTERING RGN ATTM. -RA SPREADING NNE
INTO CNTRL VA RIGHT NOW...AND AS TROUGH SLIDES E...-RA XPCD TO
CONT/SPREAD E INTO THIS AFTN. MNLY FOLLOWED 11Z/29 RUC W/ PCPN
MOVEMENT INTO THIS AFTN...AND RAISED POPS MOST ERN PLACES (TO
40-60%). TEMPS TRICKY DUE TO CLDS AND LGT PCPN...MAY NEED FURTHER
ADJUSTMENT (DOWN) IN NEXT COUPLE/FEW HRS SHOULD TRENDS CONT. QPF
MNLY AOB 1/10TH INCH.

BY LT THIS AFTN...SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST REGION WILL
SLOWLY PUSH ENE AND ELONGATE INTO THE GULF STREAM ATLC WATERS OFF
THE SE COAST. THIS AREA WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR DEEPER
MOISTURE AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND WILL ACT TO LIMIT QPF ACRS THE
MID ATLC AND AREAS FARTHER N. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS ACRS THE
SRN/ERN PORTIONS OF THE FA INTO EARLY EVE...WHILE THE AM PRECIP
AREAS OF THE PIEDMONT WILL TEND TO DIMINISH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS EVENING...WILL CONFINE HIGHEST CHC POPS TO THE SE...ONLY 20%
OR LESS FARTHER NW...CLEARING OVERNIGHT FROM NW TO SE WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S NW TO THE LWR 60S SE.

FOR TUE...FA TO BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OFFSHORE (SHUNTING PRECIP INTO SOUTHERN NC)...AND A STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING SE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. NOT MUCH
FORCING WILL REMAIN ACRS THE FA. HAVE POPS BLO 14% MOST
PLACES...THOUGH MAINTAINING JUST A SLGT CHC POP ACRS FA SE VA/CSTL
NE NC (IN THE EARLY MRNG). XPCG PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY CONDS N AND
CNTRL...TO PARTLY TO MCLDY SE...W/ HI TEMPS MNLY 75 TO 80F.

UPR LVL LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH NEW ENG TUE NGT THROUGH WED...PUSHING
ASSOCIATED TROUGH SFC-ALOFT ACRS FA W/ PSBL BKN CLDNS AND ONLY
SLGT CHC POPS (MNLY N AND E PORTIONS). OTRW VRB CLDS TO PCLDY...W/
HI TEMPS FM THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHORE...TO 75 TO 80F ELSW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE LOCAL AREA THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT DIGGING A POTENT UPPER LOW
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW
HEADS FOR NEW ENGLAND. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THRU THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. BEHIND THE FRONT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT WEEKEND
FOR DRY WX. HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
70S...EXCEPT MID/UPR 60S MAY BE MORE PROMINENT BY NEXT SUNDAY. LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S THRU FRI NIGHT...THEN COOLING INTO THE 40S
TO MID 50S NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISLTD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THRU EARLY THIS MORNG...OTHERWISE EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO TUE MORNG...DESPITE WEAK TROF
APPROACHING AND MOVNG ACRS THE REGION. MODELS INDICATING DEEPEST
LO LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SE STATES. SO...WILL
ONLY HAVE -RA WITH A VFR CIG IN ECG TAF. DRY WX IS THEN INDICATED
FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. BUT...WILL NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS
OF FOG OR STRATUS ARND SUNRISE EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU TUE NGT. A TROF OF LO PRES
WILL MOVE ACRS THE WTRS AND OUT TO SEA THIS EVENG THRU TUE MORNG.
WINDS WILL BECOME NW OR N ARND 10 KT OR LESS TODAY...N ARND 10 KT OR
LESS TNGT...THEN NE ARND 10 KT OR LESS TUE. A LO PRES SYSTEM WILL
THEN SWING THRU THE NE U.S. AND NEW ENGLAND TUE NGT AND WED...BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST BY THU MORNG. AS A RESULT...NE WINDS
WILL INCREASE A BIT FOR LATE TUE NGT THRU WED NGT...BEFORE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING DURING THU. SEAS COULD REACH 4 TO 5 FT ON THE CSTL WTRS
BY WED MORNG...THEN WILL SUBSIDE LATE THU/THU NGT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG











000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290939
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
539 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
TODAY...AND SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS REVEALS SFC HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE LOCAL
AREA...WITH SOME WEAK AREAS OF SFC TROUGHING FROM NEW ENGLAND WSW
INTO THE OH VALLEY. MORE PROMINENT SFC LOW RESIDES ACRS THE GULF
COAST. SW FLOW ALOFT IS BRINGING A LOT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TO THE AREA...BUT THERE IS STILL A DEEP DRY LAYER ABOVE
THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER UP TO ABOUT 600-700 MB. RADAR SHOWING AN
AREA OF PRECIP BETWEEN KROA AND KDAN PUSHING E/NE WITH AN UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE OVER KY. GENLY THIS AREA OF PRECIP LOOKS MORE
IMPRESSIVE ON RADAR THAN REALITY GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY
LAYER (OBS AT KMTV SHOW CIGS AROUND 10 K FT). SOME OF THE HIGH RES
MODEL REFLECTIVITY OUTPUT SHOWS THIS AREA OF RAIN OVERSPREADING
CENTRAL VA BETWEEN 12-15Z. WHILE THIS MAY OCCUR...WILL ONLY CARRY
CHC POPS OVER AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-95 DUE TO THE HIGH-BASED
CIGS...ALTHOUGH HAVE A SMALL REGION OF 60-70% POPS IN THE NEAR
TERM OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT. FAIRLY LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS
GENLY 0.10" OR LESS ANTICIPATED (WILL KEEP AREAS WELL E OF I-95 DRY
THROUGH THE MORNING).

BY THIS AFTN...SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST REGION WILL
SLOWLY PUSH ENE AND ELONGATE INTO THE GULF STREAM ATLC WATERS OFF
THE SE COAST. THIS AREA WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR DEEPER
MOISTURE AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND WILL ACT TO LIMIT QPF ACRS THE
MID ATLC AND AREAS FARTHER N. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS ACRS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WHILE THE AM PRECIP AREAS OF THE
PIEDMONT WILL TEND TO DIMINISH. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLOUDY AND
KEEP HIGHS IN THE LWR-MID 70S WEST TO THE UPPER 70S FARTHER EAST.
THIS EVENING...WILL CONFINE HIGHEST CHC POPS TO THE SE...ONLY 20% OR
LESS FARTHER NW...CLEARING OVERNIGHT FROM NW TO SE WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S NW TO THE LWR 60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOR TUE...FA TO BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OFFSHORE (SHUNTING PRECIP INTO SOUTHERN NC)...AND A STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING SE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. NOT MUCH
FORCING WILL REMAIN ACRS THE FA. HAVE POPS BLO 14% MOST
PLACES...THOUGH MAINTAINING JUST A SLGT CHC POP ACRS FA SE VA/CSTL
NE NC (IN THE EARLY MRNG). XPCG PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY CONDS N AND
CNTRL...TO PARTLY TO MCLDY SE...W/ HI TEMPS MNLY 75 TO 80F.

UPR LVL LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH NEW ENG TUE NGT THROUGH WED...PUSHING
ASSOCIATED TROUGH SFC-ALOFT ACRS FA W/ PSBL BKN CLDNS AND ONLY
SLGT CHC POPS (MNLY N AND E PORTIONS). OTRW VRB CLDS TO PCLDY...W/
HI TEMPS FM THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHORE...TO 75 TO 80F ELSW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE LOCAL AREA THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT DIGGING A POTENT UPPER LOW
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW
HEADS FOR NEW ENGLAND. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THRU THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. BEHIND THE FRONT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT WEEKEND
FOR DRY WX. HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
70S...EXCEPT MID/UPR 60S MAY BE MORE PROMINENT BY NEXT SUNDAY. LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S THRU FRI NIGHT...THEN COOLING INTO THE 40S
TO MID 50S NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISLTD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THRU EARLY THIS MORNG...OTHERWISE EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO TUE MORNG...DESPITE WEAK TROF
APPROACHING AND MOVNG ACRS THE REGION. MODELS INDICATING DEEPEST
LO LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SE STATES. SO...WILL
ONLY HAVE -RA WITH A VFR CIG IN ECG TAF. DRY WX IS THEN INDICATED
FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. BUT...WILL NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS
OF FOG OR STRATUS ARND SUNRISE EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU TUE NGT. A TROF OF LO PRES
WILL MOVE ACRS THE WTRS AND OUT TO SEA THIS EVENG THRU TUE MORNG.
WINDS WILL BECOME NW OR N ARND 10 KT OR LESS TODAY...N ARND 10 KT OR
LESS TNGT...THEN NE ARND 10 KT OR LESS TUE. A LO PRES SYSTEM WILL
THEN SWING THRU THE NE U.S. AND NEW ENGLAND TUE NGT AND WED...BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST BY THU MORNG. AS A RESULT...NE WINDS
WILL INCREASE A BIT FOR LATE TUE NGT THRU WED NGT...BEFORE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING DURING THU. SEAS COULD REACH 4 TO 5 FT ON THE CSTL WTRS
BY WED MORNG...THEN WILL SUBSIDE LATE THU/THU NGT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290939
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
539 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
TODAY...AND SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS REVEALS SFC HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE LOCAL
AREA...WITH SOME WEAK AREAS OF SFC TROUGHING FROM NEW ENGLAND WSW
INTO THE OH VALLEY. MORE PROMINENT SFC LOW RESIDES ACRS THE GULF
COAST. SW FLOW ALOFT IS BRINGING A LOT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TO THE AREA...BUT THERE IS STILL A DEEP DRY LAYER ABOVE
THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER UP TO ABOUT 600-700 MB. RADAR SHOWING AN
AREA OF PRECIP BETWEEN KROA AND KDAN PUSHING E/NE WITH AN UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE OVER KY. GENLY THIS AREA OF PRECIP LOOKS MORE
IMPRESSIVE ON RADAR THAN REALITY GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY
LAYER (OBS AT KMTV SHOW CIGS AROUND 10 K FT). SOME OF THE HIGH RES
MODEL REFLECTIVITY OUTPUT SHOWS THIS AREA OF RAIN OVERSPREADING
CENTRAL VA BETWEEN 12-15Z. WHILE THIS MAY OCCUR...WILL ONLY CARRY
CHC POPS OVER AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-95 DUE TO THE HIGH-BASED
CIGS...ALTHOUGH HAVE A SMALL REGION OF 60-70% POPS IN THE NEAR
TERM OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT. FAIRLY LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS
GENLY 0.10" OR LESS ANTICIPATED (WILL KEEP AREAS WELL E OF I-95 DRY
THROUGH THE MORNING).

BY THIS AFTN...SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST REGION WILL
SLOWLY PUSH ENE AND ELONGATE INTO THE GULF STREAM ATLC WATERS OFF
THE SE COAST. THIS AREA WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR DEEPER
MOISTURE AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND WILL ACT TO LIMIT QPF ACRS THE
MID ATLC AND AREAS FARTHER N. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS ACRS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WHILE THE AM PRECIP AREAS OF THE
PIEDMONT WILL TEND TO DIMINISH. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLOUDY AND
KEEP HIGHS IN THE LWR-MID 70S WEST TO THE UPPER 70S FARTHER EAST.
THIS EVENING...WILL CONFINE HIGHEST CHC POPS TO THE SE...ONLY 20% OR
LESS FARTHER NW...CLEARING OVERNIGHT FROM NW TO SE WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S NW TO THE LWR 60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOR TUE...FA TO BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OFFSHORE (SHUNTING PRECIP INTO SOUTHERN NC)...AND A STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING SE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. NOT MUCH
FORCING WILL REMAIN ACRS THE FA. HAVE POPS BLO 14% MOST
PLACES...THOUGH MAINTAINING JUST A SLGT CHC POP ACRS FA SE VA/CSTL
NE NC (IN THE EARLY MRNG). XPCG PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY CONDS N AND
CNTRL...TO PARTLY TO MCLDY SE...W/ HI TEMPS MNLY 75 TO 80F.

UPR LVL LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH NEW ENG TUE NGT THROUGH WED...PUSHING
ASSOCIATED TROUGH SFC-ALOFT ACRS FA W/ PSBL BKN CLDNS AND ONLY
SLGT CHC POPS (MNLY N AND E PORTIONS). OTRW VRB CLDS TO PCLDY...W/
HI TEMPS FM THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHORE...TO 75 TO 80F ELSW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE LOCAL AREA THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT DIGGING A POTENT UPPER LOW
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW
HEADS FOR NEW ENGLAND. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THRU THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. BEHIND THE FRONT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT WEEKEND
FOR DRY WX. HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
70S...EXCEPT MID/UPR 60S MAY BE MORE PROMINENT BY NEXT SUNDAY. LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S THRU FRI NIGHT...THEN COOLING INTO THE 40S
TO MID 50S NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISLTD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THRU EARLY THIS MORNG...OTHERWISE EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO TUE MORNG...DESPITE WEAK TROF
APPROACHING AND MOVNG ACRS THE REGION. MODELS INDICATING DEEPEST
LO LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SE STATES. SO...WILL
ONLY HAVE -RA WITH A VFR CIG IN ECG TAF. DRY WX IS THEN INDICATED
FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. BUT...WILL NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS
OF FOG OR STRATUS ARND SUNRISE EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU TUE NGT. A TROF OF LO PRES
WILL MOVE ACRS THE WTRS AND OUT TO SEA THIS EVENG THRU TUE MORNG.
WINDS WILL BECOME NW OR N ARND 10 KT OR LESS TODAY...N ARND 10 KT OR
LESS TNGT...THEN NE ARND 10 KT OR LESS TUE. A LO PRES SYSTEM WILL
THEN SWING THRU THE NE U.S. AND NEW ENGLAND TUE NGT AND WED...BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST BY THU MORNG. AS A RESULT...NE WINDS
WILL INCREASE A BIT FOR LATE TUE NGT THRU WED NGT...BEFORE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING DURING THU. SEAS COULD REACH 4 TO 5 FT ON THE CSTL WTRS
BY WED MORNG...THEN WILL SUBSIDE LATE THU/THU NGT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG







000
FXUS61 KPHI 290856
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
456 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL MOVE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TUESDAY WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OUT TO SEA WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA RIDGING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS
NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAIN OFFSHORE WHILE A WEAK LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA ALSO...CREATING A BKN-OVC
SKY OF HIGH CI/CS CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN SUNDAY...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE CLOSING DAYS OF
SEPTEMBER. READINGS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S IN MOST
AREAS AND A FEW LOW/MID 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
NORTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...MOSTLY WEST OR SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK SFC LOW
MOVES INTO NY STATE. THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF UPPER MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT NO PCPN IS EXPECTED WITH THE LOWER PARTS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL CONTINUE 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
60S OVER METRO PHILADELPHIA...TO THE MID/UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
500 MB: A RATHER STRONG CLOSED LOW SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY THEN SLOWLY DEPART EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. A HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA FRIDAY WILL SEND ONE
OF ITS SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY THEN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW PROBABLY FLATTENS OUT SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES: SEPTEMBER WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 1.5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. CALENDAR DAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN COOL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
BY SUNDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/29 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE 00Z/29 GFS MOS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT-THURSDAY...THEN THEREAFTER (THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD) THE
0522Z/29 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED
AGAINST THE 00Z/29 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH
ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES.
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 21Z/28
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AND THEREAFTER THE
00Z/29 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES...

MODEL AMPLITUDE AND TRACK STILL DIFFER ON THE MIDWEEK CLOSED LOW
SHORT WAVE BUT OVERALL...ENOUGH AGREEMENT EXISTS TO EXPRESS AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS FOR THIS LONG TERM PERIOD.

WE`RE COUNTING ON PROGRESSIVE AND NOT COUNTING ON AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF INVERTED TROF HANG BACK ALA THE 00Z/29 NAM.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING AROUND TO FAVORING ENOUGH
STRENGTH/POTENCY IN THE SHORT WAVE DRIVING SEWD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO MAKE ITS OWN SFC LOW PRESSURE AND SEND IT FROM ROUGHLY
TORONTO TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH PA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN
EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE MIDWEEK.

THE COMBINATION OF THE SOUTHWARD MOVING BACKDOOR COOL FRONT...DEEP
AND LIGHT E-SE FLOW NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY (I78 REGION
NORTHWARD)...PWAT OF 1.25 INCHES...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH SWI
SUBZERO AND THE STRONG SHORT WAVE PASSAGE SHOULD PERMIT SLOW
MOVING SHOWERY RAINS TO DEVELOP IN E PA AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF
NJ TUESDAY AND TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY. WHILE SOME AREAS WILL MISS THE
RAIN...OTHERS COULD EASILY SEE AN INCH.

ITS BOTHERSOME THAT THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN AT TIMES ADVERTISING
2-5 INCHES OF RAIN FROM NNJ TO S OF LI THE PAST 48 HOURS OF CYCLES. THE
IMPLIED MESSAGE...SLOW MOVERS CAN BE DECENT RAIN PRODUCERS. THUNDER
IS IN THE GRIDS NOW FROM NW NJ INTO E PA LATE TUE AFTN/EVENING.

THE PRIMARY FAVORED WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR NEEDED RAINFALL N OF
I78 IS 21Z TUE-18Z WED.

S OF I78...ESPECIALLY THE DELMARVA AND FAR SE PA...VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CHANCE OF A SHOWER BUT NOT
NEARLY AS THREATENING AS FURTHER NORTH.

PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.


THURSDAY...PROBABLY DRYING OUT IN DEVELOPING NNW FLOW ENTIRE
REGION AS THE CLOSED LOW SHIFTS TO THE E OF NEW ENGLAND AND
HEIGHTS WARM WITH THE RIDGE ARRIVING BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLOSED
LOW ALOFT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THU

FRIDAY-EARLY SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY THEN DRY
PROBABLY MOST OF FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS PROBABLE AT NIGHT
OR EARLY SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH AXISED SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

LATER SATURDAY-SUNDAY...DRIES OUT WITH A GUSTY WESTERLY WIND.
COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE THE NEXT BRIEF
WARMING CYCLE!

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MORNING FOG WITH LOCALLY MVFR OR PERHAPS SOME HIGH IFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE...BUT OTHER THAN THAT...ANOTHER GOOD FLYING WEATHER DAY ON
TAP. THERE WILL BE MOSTLY BKN-OVC CI/CS CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD
MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT WITH RATHER LIGHT WINDS...CONDITIONS WILL BE
GOOD. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE AN WEAK
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. VFR EXPECTED INTO
TONIGHT...WITH MORE LOCALIZED FOG POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN PATCHY FOG
NEAR SUNRISE TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN IN AFTN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
KABE AND KRDG. SLIGHT CHC OF A LATE DAY TSTM THERE. LIGHT WIND
TRENDING EASTERLY MOST TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MAX
GUST 10-15KT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS
KABE/KRDG/KTTN DURING THE MORNING. E/NE WINDS GUST 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR FOG EARLY OTHERWISE VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AOA 4000 FT. N-NW WIND GUST 15 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE WATERS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN
OFFSHORE AND A WEAK LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND MOVE INTO NY STATE TUE. A LIGHT...MOSTLY SWRLY...FLOW WILL BE
ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS MAY TURN ERLY LATE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
UNDER 10 KNOTS EXPECTED. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT. SEAS AROUND 2 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1 TO 2 FT OVER DEL BAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE WITH DEVELOPING EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW
BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NE FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA ALONG THE NNJ COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD TO THE ENTIRE ATLC COAST LATER
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS
ABOVE 22 KT WITH ANY SCA HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY AS OF THIS WRITING.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF SCA SEAS ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE
SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.

FRIDAY...WIND BECOMING SOUTH BY NIGHT. SMALL CHANCE OF AN SCA AT
NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 455
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...DRAG 455
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA 455
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA 455







000
FXUS61 KPHI 290856
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
456 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL MOVE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TUESDAY WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OUT TO SEA WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA RIDGING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS
NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAIN OFFSHORE WHILE A WEAK LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA ALSO...CREATING A BKN-OVC
SKY OF HIGH CI/CS CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN SUNDAY...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE CLOSING DAYS OF
SEPTEMBER. READINGS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S IN MOST
AREAS AND A FEW LOW/MID 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
NORTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...MOSTLY WEST OR SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK SFC LOW
MOVES INTO NY STATE. THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF UPPER MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT NO PCPN IS EXPECTED WITH THE LOWER PARTS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL CONTINUE 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
60S OVER METRO PHILADELPHIA...TO THE MID/UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
500 MB: A RATHER STRONG CLOSED LOW SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY THEN SLOWLY DEPART EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. A HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA FRIDAY WILL SEND ONE
OF ITS SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY THEN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW PROBABLY FLATTENS OUT SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES: SEPTEMBER WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 1.5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. CALENDAR DAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN COOL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
BY SUNDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/29 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE 00Z/29 GFS MOS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT-THURSDAY...THEN THEREAFTER (THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD) THE
0522Z/29 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED
AGAINST THE 00Z/29 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH
ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES.
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 21Z/28
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AND THEREAFTER THE
00Z/29 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES...

MODEL AMPLITUDE AND TRACK STILL DIFFER ON THE MIDWEEK CLOSED LOW
SHORT WAVE BUT OVERALL...ENOUGH AGREEMENT EXISTS TO EXPRESS AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS FOR THIS LONG TERM PERIOD.

WE`RE COUNTING ON PROGRESSIVE AND NOT COUNTING ON AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF INVERTED TROF HANG BACK ALA THE 00Z/29 NAM.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING AROUND TO FAVORING ENOUGH
STRENGTH/POTENCY IN THE SHORT WAVE DRIVING SEWD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO MAKE ITS OWN SFC LOW PRESSURE AND SEND IT FROM ROUGHLY
TORONTO TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH PA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN
EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE MIDWEEK.

THE COMBINATION OF THE SOUTHWARD MOVING BACKDOOR COOL FRONT...DEEP
AND LIGHT E-SE FLOW NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY (I78 REGION
NORTHWARD)...PWAT OF 1.25 INCHES...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH SWI
SUBZERO AND THE STRONG SHORT WAVE PASSAGE SHOULD PERMIT SLOW
MOVING SHOWERY RAINS TO DEVELOP IN E PA AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF
NJ TUESDAY AND TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY. WHILE SOME AREAS WILL MISS THE
RAIN...OTHERS COULD EASILY SEE AN INCH.

ITS BOTHERSOME THAT THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN AT TIMES ADVERTISING
2-5 INCHES OF RAIN FROM NNJ TO S OF LI THE PAST 48 HOURS OF CYCLES. THE
IMPLIED MESSAGE...SLOW MOVERS CAN BE DECENT RAIN PRODUCERS. THUNDER
IS IN THE GRIDS NOW FROM NW NJ INTO E PA LATE TUE AFTN/EVENING.

THE PRIMARY FAVORED WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR NEEDED RAINFALL N OF
I78 IS 21Z TUE-18Z WED.

S OF I78...ESPECIALLY THE DELMARVA AND FAR SE PA...VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CHANCE OF A SHOWER BUT NOT
NEARLY AS THREATENING AS FURTHER NORTH.

PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.


THURSDAY...PROBABLY DRYING OUT IN DEVELOPING NNW FLOW ENTIRE
REGION AS THE CLOSED LOW SHIFTS TO THE E OF NEW ENGLAND AND
HEIGHTS WARM WITH THE RIDGE ARRIVING BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLOSED
LOW ALOFT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THU

FRIDAY-EARLY SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY THEN DRY
PROBABLY MOST OF FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS PROBABLE AT NIGHT
OR EARLY SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH AXISED SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

LATER SATURDAY-SUNDAY...DRIES OUT WITH A GUSTY WESTERLY WIND.
COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE THE NEXT BRIEF
WARMING CYCLE!

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MORNING FOG WITH LOCALLY MVFR OR PERHAPS SOME HIGH IFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE...BUT OTHER THAN THAT...ANOTHER GOOD FLYING WEATHER DAY ON
TAP. THERE WILL BE MOSTLY BKN-OVC CI/CS CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD
MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT WITH RATHER LIGHT WINDS...CONDITIONS WILL BE
GOOD. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE AN WEAK
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. VFR EXPECTED INTO
TONIGHT...WITH MORE LOCALIZED FOG POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN PATCHY FOG
NEAR SUNRISE TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN IN AFTN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
KABE AND KRDG. SLIGHT CHC OF A LATE DAY TSTM THERE. LIGHT WIND
TRENDING EASTERLY MOST TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MAX
GUST 10-15KT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS
KABE/KRDG/KTTN DURING THE MORNING. E/NE WINDS GUST 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR FOG EARLY OTHERWISE VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AOA 4000 FT. N-NW WIND GUST 15 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE WATERS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN
OFFSHORE AND A WEAK LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND MOVE INTO NY STATE TUE. A LIGHT...MOSTLY SWRLY...FLOW WILL BE
ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS MAY TURN ERLY LATE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
UNDER 10 KNOTS EXPECTED. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT. SEAS AROUND 2 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1 TO 2 FT OVER DEL BAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE WITH DEVELOPING EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW
BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NE FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA ALONG THE NNJ COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD TO THE ENTIRE ATLC COAST LATER
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS
ABOVE 22 KT WITH ANY SCA HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY AS OF THIS WRITING.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF SCA SEAS ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE
SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.

FRIDAY...WIND BECOMING SOUTH BY NIGHT. SMALL CHANCE OF AN SCA AT
NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 455
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...DRAG 455
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA 455
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA 455








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290825
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
425 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY TODAY. A SHIELD OF CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COOL FRONT WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY. PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE A CLOSED 50H LOW WHICH MOVING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY MORNING INTO NORTHWEST PA TUESDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE
PRODUCING SOME QPF ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
REMAINS LIMITED. ADDITIONALLY...THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN
AS IT DRIFTS THROUGH. WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST OF LOW
CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHC POPS TUESDAY AFT/EVE.

UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. IT IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A SHOWER COULD POP OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SHOWING AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY SWINGING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING 50H LOW
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO DEVELOP A SHOWER OR TWO. DEEP MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING...SO FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DRY AN WARM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. THE FIRST
REAL SYSTEM TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A MUCH NEEDED SHOT AT WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND EVENTUALLY COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN APCHG MD/UPR LVL TROF WL BRING CI TO AREA PORTS TNGT...WITH SCT
SC/CU MON. VFR IS EXPD TO CONT...THOUGH SOME PTCHY MVFR/IFR FG IS
EXPD ERLY MON MRNG N AND W OF PIT. FKL/DUJ LOOK TO HAVE THE BEST
CHC AT LIFR AS THE SFC BCMS SATURATED DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WDSPRD RSTRNS WL RTN WITH A FRI CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290825
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
425 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY TODAY. A SHIELD OF CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COOL FRONT WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY. PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE A CLOSED 50H LOW WHICH MOVING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY MORNING INTO NORTHWEST PA TUESDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE
PRODUCING SOME QPF ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
REMAINS LIMITED. ADDITIONALLY...THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN
AS IT DRIFTS THROUGH. WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST OF LOW
CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHC POPS TUESDAY AFT/EVE.

UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. IT IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A SHOWER COULD POP OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SHOWING AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY SWINGING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING 50H LOW
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO DEVELOP A SHOWER OR TWO. DEEP MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING...SO FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DRY AN WARM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. THE FIRST
REAL SYSTEM TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A MUCH NEEDED SHOT AT WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND EVENTUALLY COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN APCHG MD/UPR LVL TROF WL BRING CI TO AREA PORTS TNGT...WITH SCT
SC/CU MON. VFR IS EXPD TO CONT...THOUGH SOME PTCHY MVFR/IFR FG IS
EXPD ERLY MON MRNG N AND W OF PIT. FKL/DUJ LOOK TO HAVE THE BEST
CHC AT LIFR AS THE SFC BCMS SATURATED DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WDSPRD RSTRNS WL RTN WITH A FRI CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290825
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
425 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY TODAY. A SHIELD OF CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COOL FRONT WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY. PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE A CLOSED 50H LOW WHICH MOVING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY MORNING INTO NORTHWEST PA TUESDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE
PRODUCING SOME QPF ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
REMAINS LIMITED. ADDITIONALLY...THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN
AS IT DRIFTS THROUGH. WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST OF LOW
CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHC POPS TUESDAY AFT/EVE.

UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. IT IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A SHOWER COULD POP OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SHOWING AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY SWINGING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING 50H LOW
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO DEVELOP A SHOWER OR TWO. DEEP MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING...SO FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DRY AN WARM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. THE FIRST
REAL SYSTEM TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A MUCH NEEDED SHOT AT WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND EVENTUALLY COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN APCHG MD/UPR LVL TROF WL BRING CI TO AREA PORTS TNGT...WITH SCT
SC/CU MON. VFR IS EXPD TO CONT...THOUGH SOME PTCHY MVFR/IFR FG IS
EXPD ERLY MON MRNG N AND W OF PIT. FKL/DUJ LOOK TO HAVE THE BEST
CHC AT LIFR AS THE SFC BCMS SATURATED DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WDSPRD RSTRNS WL RTN WITH A FRI CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290825
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
425 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY TODAY. A SHIELD OF CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COOL FRONT WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY. PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE A CLOSED 50H LOW WHICH MOVING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY MORNING INTO NORTHWEST PA TUESDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE
PRODUCING SOME QPF ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
REMAINS LIMITED. ADDITIONALLY...THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN
AS IT DRIFTS THROUGH. WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST OF LOW
CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHC POPS TUESDAY AFT/EVE.

UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. IT IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A SHOWER COULD POP OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SHOWING AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY SWINGING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING 50H LOW
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO DEVELOP A SHOWER OR TWO. DEEP MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING...SO FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DRY AN WARM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. THE FIRST
REAL SYSTEM TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A MUCH NEEDED SHOT AT WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND EVENTUALLY COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN APCHG MD/UPR LVL TROF WL BRING CI TO AREA PORTS TNGT...WITH SCT
SC/CU MON. VFR IS EXPD TO CONT...THOUGH SOME PTCHY MVFR/IFR FG IS
EXPD ERLY MON MRNG N AND W OF PIT. FKL/DUJ LOOK TO HAVE THE BEST
CHC AT LIFR AS THE SFC BCMS SATURATED DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WDSPRD RSTRNS WL RTN WITH A FRI CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290803
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
403 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
TODAY...AND SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS REVEALS SFC HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE LOCAL
AREA...WITH SOME WEAK AREAS OF SFC TROUGHING FROM NEW ENGLAND WSW
INTO THE OH VALLEY. MORE PROMINENT SFC LOW RESIDES ACRS THE GULF
COAST. SW FLOW ALOFT IS BRINGING A LOT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TO THE AREA...BUT THERE IS STILL A DEEP DRY LAYER ABOVE
THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER UP TO ABOUT 600-700 MB. RADAR SHOWING AN
AREA OF PRECIP BETWEEN KROA AND KDAN PUSHING E/NE WITH AN UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE OVER KY. GENLY THIS AREA OF PRECIP LOOKS MORE
IMPRESSIVE ON RADAR THAN REALITY GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY
LAYER (OBS AT KMTV SHOW CIGS AROUND 10 K FT). SOME OF THE HIGH RES
MODEL REFLECTIVITY OUTPUT SHOWS THIS AREA OF RAIN OVERSPREADING
CENTRAL VA BETWEEN 12-15Z. WHILE THIS MAY OCCUR...WILL ONLY CARRY
CHC POPS OVER AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-95 DUE TO THE HIGH-BASED
CIGS...WITH FAIRLY LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS GENLY 0.10" OR LESS
ANTICIPATED (WILL KEEP AREAS E OF I-95 DRY THROUGH THE MORNING).

BY THIS AFTN...SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST REGION WILL
SLOWLY PUSH ENE AND ELONGATE INTO THE GULF STREAM ATLC WATERS OFF
THE SE COAST. THIS AREA WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR DEEPER
MOISTURE AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND WILL ACT TO LIMIT QPF ACRS THE
MID ATLC AND AREAS FARTHER N. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS ACRS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WHILE THE AM PRECIP AREAS OF THE
PIEDMONT WILL TEND TO DIMINISH. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLOUDY AND
KEEP HIGHS IN THE LWR 70S WEST TO THE UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST.
THIS EVENING...WILL CONFINE HIGH CHC POPS TO THE SE...ONLY 20% OR
LESS FARTHER NW...CLEARING OVERNIGHT FROM NW TO SE WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S NW TO THE LWR 60S SE.



&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOR TUE...FA TO BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OFFSHORE (SHUNTING PRECIP INTO SOUTHERN NC)...AND A STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING SE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. NOT MUCH
FORCING WILL REMAIN ACRS THE FA. HAVE POPS BLO 14% MOST
PLACES...THOUGH MAINTAINING JUST A SLGT CHC POP ACRS FA SE VA/CSTL
NE NC (IN THE EARLY MRNG). XPCG PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY CONDS N AND
CNTRL...TO PARTLY TO MCLDY SE...W/ HI TEMPS MNLY 75 TO 80F.

UPR LVL LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH NEW ENG TUE NGT THROUGH WED...PUSHING
ASSOCIATED TROUGH SFC-ALOFT ACRS FA W/ PSBL BKN CLDNS AND ONLY
SLGT CHC POPS (MNLY N AND E PORTIONS). OTRW VRB CLDS TO PCLDY...W/
HI TEMPS FM THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHORE...TO 75 TO 80F ELSW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE LOCAL AREA THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT DIGGING A POTENT UPPER LOW
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW
HEADS FOR NEW ENGLAND. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THRU THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. BEHIND THE FRONT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT WEEKEND
FOR DRY WX. HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
70S...EXCEPT MID/UPR 60S MAY BE MORE PROMINENT BY NEXT SUNDAY. LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S THRU FRI NIGHT...THEN COOLING INTO THE 40S
TO MID 50S NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISLTD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THRU EARLY THIS MORNG...OTHERWISE EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO TUE MORNG...DESPITE WEAK TROF
APPROACHING AND MOVNG ACRS THE REGION. MODELS INDICATING DEEPEST
LO LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SE STATES. SO...WILL
ONLY HAVE -RA WITH A VFR CIG IN ECG TAF. DRY WX IS THEN INDICATED
FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. BUT...WILL NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS
OF FOG OR STRATUS ARND SUNRISE EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU TUE NGT. A TROF OF LO PRES
WILL MOVE ACRS THE WTRS AND OUT TO SEA THIS EVENG THRU TUE MORNG.
WINDS WILL BECOME NW OR N ARND 10 KT OR LESS TODAY...N ARND 10 KT OR
LESS TNGT...THEN NE ARND 10 KT OR LESS TUE. A LO PRES SYSTEM WILL
THEN SWING THRU THE NE U.S. AND NEW ENGLAND TUE NGT AND WED...BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST BY THU MORNG. AS A RESULT...NE WINDS
WILL INCREASE A BIT FOR LATE TUE NGT THRU WED NGT...BEFORE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING DURING THU. SEAS COULD REACH 4 TO 5 FT ON THE CSTL WTRS
BY WED MORNG...THEN WILL SUBSIDE LATE THU/THU NGT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG







000
FXUS61 KPHI 290758
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
358 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL MOVE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY
WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. THAT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OUT TO SEA WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
IN EASTERN CANADA RIDGING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES EARLY SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS NEXT
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAIN OFFSHORE WHILE A WEAK LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA ALSO...CREATING A BKN-OVC
SKY OF HIGH CI/CS CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN SUNDAY...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE CLOSING DAYS OF
SEPTEMBER. READINGS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S IN MOST
AREAS AND A FEW LOW/MID 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
NORTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...MOSTLY WEST OR SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK SFC LOW
MOVES INTO NY STATE. THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF UPPER MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT NO PCPN IS EXPECTED WITH THE LOWER PARTS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL CONTINUE 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
60S OVER METRO PHILADELPHIA...TO THE MID/UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
500 MB: A RATHER STRONG CLOSED LOW SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY THEN SLOWLY DEPART EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. A HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA FRIDAY WILL SEND ONE
OF ITS SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY THEN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW PROBABLY FLATTENS OUT SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES: SEPTEMBER WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 1.5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. CALENDAR DAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN COOL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
BY SUNDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/29 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE 00Z/29 GFS MOS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT-THURSDAY...THEN THEREAFTER (THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD) THE
0522Z/29 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED
AGAINST THE 00Z/29 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH
ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES.
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 21Z/28
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AND THEREAFTER THE
00Z/29 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES...

MODEL AMPLITUDE AND TRACK STILL DIFFER ON THE MIDWEEK CLOSED LOW
SHORT WAVE BUT OVERALL...ENOUGH AGREEMENT EXISTS TO EXPRESS AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS FOR THIS LONG TERM PERIOD.

WE`RE COUNTING ON PROGRESSIVE AND NOT COUNTING ON AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF INVERTED TROF HANG BACK ALA THE 00Z/29 NAM.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING AROUND TO FAVORING ENOUGH
STRENGTH/POTENCY IN THE SHORT WAVE DRIVING SEWD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO MAKE ITS OWN SFC LOW PRESSURE AND SEND IT FROM ROUGHLY
TORONTO TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH PA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN
EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE MIDWEEK.

THE COMBINATION OF THE SOUTHWARD MOVING BACKDOOR COOL FRONT...DEEP
AND LIGHT E-SE FLOW NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY (I78 REGION
NORTHWARD)...PWAT OF 1.25 INCHES...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH SWI
SUBZERO AND THE STRONG SHORT WAVE PASSAGE SHOULD PERMIT SLOW
MOVING SHOWERY RAINS TO DEVELOP IN E PA AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF
NJ TUESDAY AND TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY. WHILE SOME AREAS WILL MISS THE
RAIN...OTHERS COULD EASILY SEE AN INCH.

ITS BOTHERSOME THAT THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN AT TIMES ADVERTISING
2-5 INCHES OF RAIN FROM NNJ TO S OF LI THE PAST 48 HOURS OF CYCLES. THE
IMPLIED MESSAGE...SLOW MOVERS CAN BE DECENT PRODUCERS. THUNDER IS
IN THE GRIDS NOW FROM NW NJ INTO E PA LATE TUE AFTN/EVENING.

THE PRIMARY FAVORED WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR NEEDED RAINFALL N OF
I78 IS 21Z TUE-18Z WED.

S OF I78...ESPECIALLY THE DELMARVA ND FAR SE PA...VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CHANCE OF A SHOWER BUT NOT
NEARLY AS THREATENING AS FURTHER NORTH.

PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.

THURSDAY...PROBABLY DRYING OUT IN DEVELOPING NNW FLOW ENTIRE
REGION AS THE CLOSED LOW SHIFTS TO THE E OF NEW ENGLAND AND
HEIGHTS WARM AS THE RIDGE BEHIND THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT ARRIVES.
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THU

FRIDAY-EARLY SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY THEN DRY
PROBABLY MOST OF FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS PROBABLE AT NIGHT
OR EARLY SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH AXISED SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

LATER SATURDAY-SUNDAY...DRIES OUT WITH A GUSTY WESTERLY WIND.
COOLER!

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MORNING FOG WITH LOCALLY MVFR OR PERHAPS SOME HIGH IFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE...BUT OTHER THAN THAT...ANOTHER GOOD FLYING WEATHER DAY ON
TAP. THERE WILL BE MOSTLY BKN-OVC CI/CS CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD
MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT WITH RATHER LIGHT WINDS...CONDITIONS WILL BE
GOOD. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE AN WEAK
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. VFR EXPECTED INTO
TONIGHT...WITH MORE LOCALIZED FOG POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN PATCHY FOG
NEAR SUNRISE TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN IN AFTN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
KABE AND KRDG. SLIGHT CHC OF A LATE DAY TSTM THERE. LIGHT WIND
TRENDING EASTERLY MOST TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MAX
GUST 10-15KT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS
KABE/KRDG/KTTN DURING THE MORNING. E/NE WINDS GUST 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR FOG EARLY OTHERWISE VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AOA 4000 FT. N-NW WIND GUST 15 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE WATERS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN
OFFSHORE AND A WEAK LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND MOVE INTO NY STATE TUE. A LIGHT...MOSTLY SWRLY...FLOW WILL BE
ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS MAY TURN ERLY LATE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
UNDER 10 KNOTS EXPECTED. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT. SEAS AROUND 2 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1 TO 2 FT OVER DEL BAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE WITH DEVELOPING EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW
BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NE FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA ALONG THE NNJ COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD TO THE ENTIRE ATLC COAST LATER
WED AND WED NIGHT. DE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS ABOVE 22 KT WITH
ANY SCA HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY AS OF THIS WRITING.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF SCA SEAS ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE
SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.

FRIDAY...WIND BECOMING SOUTH BY NIGHT. SMALL CHANCE OF AN SCA AT
NIGHT.

&&



.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 359
NEAR TERM...O`HARA 359
SHORT TERM...O`HARA 359
LONG TERM...DRAG 359
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA 359
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA 359
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...359







000
FXUS61 KPHI 290758
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
358 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL MOVE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY
WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. THAT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OUT TO SEA WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
IN EASTERN CANADA RIDGING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES EARLY SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS NEXT
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAIN OFFSHORE WHILE A WEAK LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA ALSO...CREATING A BKN-OVC
SKY OF HIGH CI/CS CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN SUNDAY...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE CLOSING DAYS OF
SEPTEMBER. READINGS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S IN MOST
AREAS AND A FEW LOW/MID 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
NORTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...MOSTLY WEST OR SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK SFC LOW
MOVES INTO NY STATE. THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF UPPER MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT NO PCPN IS EXPECTED WITH THE LOWER PARTS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL CONTINUE 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
60S OVER METRO PHILADELPHIA...TO THE MID/UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
500 MB: A RATHER STRONG CLOSED LOW SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY THEN SLOWLY DEPART EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. A HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA FRIDAY WILL SEND ONE
OF ITS SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY THEN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW PROBABLY FLATTENS OUT SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES: SEPTEMBER WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 1.5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. CALENDAR DAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN COOL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
BY SUNDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/29 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE 00Z/29 GFS MOS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT-THURSDAY...THEN THEREAFTER (THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD) THE
0522Z/29 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED
AGAINST THE 00Z/29 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH
ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES.
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 21Z/28
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AND THEREAFTER THE
00Z/29 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES...

MODEL AMPLITUDE AND TRACK STILL DIFFER ON THE MIDWEEK CLOSED LOW
SHORT WAVE BUT OVERALL...ENOUGH AGREEMENT EXISTS TO EXPRESS AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS FOR THIS LONG TERM PERIOD.

WE`RE COUNTING ON PROGRESSIVE AND NOT COUNTING ON AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF INVERTED TROF HANG BACK ALA THE 00Z/29 NAM.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING AROUND TO FAVORING ENOUGH
STRENGTH/POTENCY IN THE SHORT WAVE DRIVING SEWD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO MAKE ITS OWN SFC LOW PRESSURE AND SEND IT FROM ROUGHLY
TORONTO TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH PA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN
EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE MIDWEEK.

THE COMBINATION OF THE SOUTHWARD MOVING BACKDOOR COOL FRONT...DEEP
AND LIGHT E-SE FLOW NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY (I78 REGION
NORTHWARD)...PWAT OF 1.25 INCHES...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH SWI
SUBZERO AND THE STRONG SHORT WAVE PASSAGE SHOULD PERMIT SLOW
MOVING SHOWERY RAINS TO DEVELOP IN E PA AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF
NJ TUESDAY AND TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY. WHILE SOME AREAS WILL MISS THE
RAIN...OTHERS COULD EASILY SEE AN INCH.

ITS BOTHERSOME THAT THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN AT TIMES ADVERTISING
2-5 INCHES OF RAIN FROM NNJ TO S OF LI THE PAST 48 HOURS OF CYCLES. THE
IMPLIED MESSAGE...SLOW MOVERS CAN BE DECENT PRODUCERS. THUNDER IS
IN THE GRIDS NOW FROM NW NJ INTO E PA LATE TUE AFTN/EVENING.

THE PRIMARY FAVORED WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR NEEDED RAINFALL N OF
I78 IS 21Z TUE-18Z WED.

S OF I78...ESPECIALLY THE DELMARVA ND FAR SE PA...VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CHANCE OF A SHOWER BUT NOT
NEARLY AS THREATENING AS FURTHER NORTH.

PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.

THURSDAY...PROBABLY DRYING OUT IN DEVELOPING NNW FLOW ENTIRE
REGION AS THE CLOSED LOW SHIFTS TO THE E OF NEW ENGLAND AND
HEIGHTS WARM AS THE RIDGE BEHIND THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT ARRIVES.
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THU

FRIDAY-EARLY SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY THEN DRY
PROBABLY MOST OF FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS PROBABLE AT NIGHT
OR EARLY SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH AXISED SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

LATER SATURDAY-SUNDAY...DRIES OUT WITH A GUSTY WESTERLY WIND.
COOLER!

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MORNING FOG WITH LOCALLY MVFR OR PERHAPS SOME HIGH IFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE...BUT OTHER THAN THAT...ANOTHER GOOD FLYING WEATHER DAY ON
TAP. THERE WILL BE MOSTLY BKN-OVC CI/CS CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD
MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT WITH RATHER LIGHT WINDS...CONDITIONS WILL BE
GOOD. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE AN WEAK
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. VFR EXPECTED INTO
TONIGHT...WITH MORE LOCALIZED FOG POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN PATCHY FOG
NEAR SUNRISE TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN IN AFTN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
KABE AND KRDG. SLIGHT CHC OF A LATE DAY TSTM THERE. LIGHT WIND
TRENDING EASTERLY MOST TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MAX
GUST 10-15KT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS
KABE/KRDG/KTTN DURING THE MORNING. E/NE WINDS GUST 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR FOG EARLY OTHERWISE VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AOA 4000 FT. N-NW WIND GUST 15 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE WATERS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN
OFFSHORE AND A WEAK LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND MOVE INTO NY STATE TUE. A LIGHT...MOSTLY SWRLY...FLOW WILL BE
ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS MAY TURN ERLY LATE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
UNDER 10 KNOTS EXPECTED. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT. SEAS AROUND 2 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1 TO 2 FT OVER DEL BAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE WITH DEVELOPING EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW
BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NE FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA ALONG THE NNJ COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD TO THE ENTIRE ATLC COAST LATER
WED AND WED NIGHT. DE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS ABOVE 22 KT WITH
ANY SCA HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY AS OF THIS WRITING.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF SCA SEAS ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE
SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.

FRIDAY...WIND BECOMING SOUTH BY NIGHT. SMALL CHANCE OF AN SCA AT
NIGHT.

&&



.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 359
NEAR TERM...O`HARA 359
SHORT TERM...O`HARA 359
LONG TERM...DRAG 359
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA 359
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA 359
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...359






000
FXUS61 KLWX 290758
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
358 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS
OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST
TUESDAY...AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

THE PAST SVRL NGTS I`VE BEEN ON THE LONG TERM SIDE...LOOKING AT
THE WX FOR THE 1ST PART OF THE NEW WK. THE WORD I USED TO DESCRIBE
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WAS "NEBULOUS" - THERE WERE NO MAJOR
SIGNATURES TO LOCK ONTO. AND NOW HERE WE ARE...AT DAY 1...AND THE
PATTERN STILL LOOKS FAIRLY INDETERMINATE.

ONE CLR THING IS THAT TDA WON`T XPRNC THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE OF
THE PAST 3. MOISTURE XNTDS FM THE GULF STATES TO NEW ENGLAND. A
LONG PD W.V IMGRY LOOP SHOWS UPR LVL LOW PRES AREAS ALONG THE GULF
CST W/ A 2ND MOVG INTO OH. THIS COMBINATION IS ALLOWING UPR LVL
MOISTURE TO STREAM E OF THE APLCNHS. HENCE SKIES ARE M CLDY...
WHICH IN TURN HAS CAUSED TNGT`S LOW TEMPS TO BE WARMER THAN THE
PRVS FEW NGTS...AND CUT DOWN ON THE AMT OF FOG.

TEMPS TDA SHOULD BE A FEW DEGS COOLER THAN IN PRVS DAYS DUE TO THE
INCRSD CLD CVR. PCPN-WISE MDLS HV QUITE A DISPARITTY OF POPS. FOR
NHK MET GIVES A 70 POP WHILE MAV GIVES A 20. LATEST LAV GIVES SAME
SPOT A 5 POP!

ALSO LOOKING AT INCOMING EURO. THIS KEEPS THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE SHUNTED OVR THE CAROLINAS/PSBLY INTO SERN VA. THIS IS
ACTUALLY THE SCENARIO I WROTE LAST NGT...AND STILL SEEMS THE WAY
TO GO - ALTHO M CLDY TDA SHOULD BE GNRLY DRY - PERHAPS A FEW LGT
AREAS OF RA IN THE CENTRAL SHEN VLLY/LWR SRN MD.

HIGH TEMPS IN THE MU70S...XCPT A80 IN THE CITIES AND A70 IN THE
HIGHLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

AS THE DISORGANIZED UPR LVL SHORT WV MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS IT
APPEARS THAT ANOTHER SHORT WV CURRENTLY OVR NRN MN WL BE TRACKING
INTO THE ERN GRT LKS TNGT. IN REPONSE THIS WL HELP TO PUSH THE
CAROLINA LOW OFFSHORE. IF THERE IS A CHC OF RA TNGT THE BEST SHOT
WOULD BE IN LWR SRN MD.

LOWS IN THE 50S...XCPT L60S IN THE CITIES.

THE FOREMENTIONED GRT LKS SHORT WV IS XPCTD TO TRACK ACROSS PA
DURG THE DAY TUE. THIS MAY SPAWN RW/ISOLD TRW IN ERN W.V./WRN MD
DURG THE AFTN. POPS WL HELD TO 30 IN THE NWRN SXN OF THE CWA.
HIGHS GNRLY IN THE U70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE DRIFTING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT
INTO WED. THIS FEATURE SHOULD STAY LARGELY NORTH OF THE MASON-DIXON
LINE AS IT GETS COERCED EASTWARD AND DISSIPATES. THE PRECIP BANDS
ASSOCIATED W/ THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES SHOULD SPREAD SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MTNS AND SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE. KEPT A LOW CHANCE POP FOR NRN PARTS OF THE AREA AND MORE
OF AN OUTSIDE CHANCE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT FOR WED. DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY THE UPPER LOW EXITS...THERE COULD BE MORE CLOUD COVER/LOWER
TEMPS AND MORE OF A DRIZZLY DAY FOR SECTIONS OF THE AREA...ESP IF
SOME WEAK CAD SETS UP.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE ONE-DAY PASSAGE OF A WEAK RIDGE...IN BETWEEN
THE EXITING UPPER LOW AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT. SOME TRAPPED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BRING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE WRN HALF OF
THE AREA...MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT ON
TARGET FOR AVERAGE VALUES W/ PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. FAST ON THE HEELS
OF THIS BRIEF REPRIEVE WILL BE A POTENT AND QUICK-DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.

A COUPLE OF SMALLER UPPER WAVES WILL COMBINE OVER THE ENTIRE LENGTH
OF THE MS RVR VLY LATE THU...SPREADING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH - TENN
VLY AND UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE EARLY MRNG HRS FRI. THE MAIN
RESULTANT VORT MAX WILL START TO DISSIPATE AS IT CROSSES THE SRN
APLCNS AND MOVES TOWARD THE VA TIDEWATER REGION. SLIGHTLY LAGGING
BEHIND BUT NOT LACKING ANY PUNCH WILL BE YET ANOTHER UPPER WAVE -
THIS ONE PACKING THE CANADIAN AIR - WILL SWING IN FROM THE BEHIND
LATER IN THE DAY. A WAVE OF PRE-FRONTAL RAINS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
EAST COAST...INCLUDING OUR REGION...BUT IT DEPENDS ON THIS SECONDARY
INCOMING CANADIAN AIRMASS. THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE
COMING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EAST COAST SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE IF
MUCH OF PRECIP DISSIPATES AND PULLS UP NORTH OF US LATE FRI NIGHT.
THE 00Z EURO DOES JUST THAT...W/ A DEEP 537DM CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE WRN GREAT LAKES - WHICH TAKES THE DYNAMICS OF SYSTEM OFF TO THE
NORTH...ESSENTIALLY SCRAPING THE NRN PART OF THE CWA.

ALTHOUGH OUR HIGHS ON FRI WILL LIKELY REACH THE M-U70S AND THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THRU OVERNIGHT...LOWS WILL STILL ONLY DROP INTO THE
50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE MTNS WILL START TO SEE 40S OVERNIGHT
W/ THE COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR COMING IN...BUT THE FRONT WON`T ARRIVE
QUICK ENOUGH TO REALLY COOL OFF THE AREA - THAT WILL BE THE NEXT
NIGHT. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE APPROACHING ON SAT...SO CONDITIONS
WILL BE PLEASANT W/ HIGHS IN THE L70S AND A DRIER AIRMASS...BUT W/
THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDING OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY - SWEEPING IN
THE COLDER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS...OVERNIGHT LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE U40S AND L50S. ANOTHER ONE-DAY REPRIEVE BEFORE
ANOTHER CLIPPER SHORTWAVE LACKING PRECIP WILL SWING DOWN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES...REINFORCING THE COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ALTHO SKIES SHOULD BE M CLDY TDA CIGS SHOULD RMN VFR. THESE CLDS
SHOULD HELP TO SUPRESS FOG TNGT. ISOLD TRW ARE PSBL TUE AFTN IN
VNCTY MRB.

AN ACTIVE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...W/ A SYSTEM OR FRONTAL PASSAGE ABOUT
EVERY OTHER DAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL PASS BY ON WED...BRINGING A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS. CONDITIONS CLEARING OUT A BIT ON
THU...WHILE A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT
WILL SLIDE THRU THE REGION LATE FRI. HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE
WEEKEND...BUT COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN AIRMASS.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA VALUES TDA THRU TUE.

WEAK LOW PRES ON WED AND A QUIET THU. SLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT ON FRI. THE FRONT WILL BRING NW WINDS BEHIND IT THAT
WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/GMS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 290758
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
358 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS
OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST
TUESDAY...AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

THE PAST SVRL NGTS I`VE BEEN ON THE LONG TERM SIDE...LOOKING AT
THE WX FOR THE 1ST PART OF THE NEW WK. THE WORD I USED TO DESCRIBE
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WAS "NEBULOUS" - THERE WERE NO MAJOR
SIGNATURES TO LOCK ONTO. AND NOW HERE WE ARE...AT DAY 1...AND THE
PATTERN STILL LOOKS FAIRLY INDETERMINATE.

ONE CLR THING IS THAT TDA WON`T XPRNC THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE OF
THE PAST 3. MOISTURE XNTDS FM THE GULF STATES TO NEW ENGLAND. A
LONG PD W.V IMGRY LOOP SHOWS UPR LVL LOW PRES AREAS ALONG THE GULF
CST W/ A 2ND MOVG INTO OH. THIS COMBINATION IS ALLOWING UPR LVL
MOISTURE TO STREAM E OF THE APLCNHS. HENCE SKIES ARE M CLDY...
WHICH IN TURN HAS CAUSED TNGT`S LOW TEMPS TO BE WARMER THAN THE
PRVS FEW NGTS...AND CUT DOWN ON THE AMT OF FOG.

TEMPS TDA SHOULD BE A FEW DEGS COOLER THAN IN PRVS DAYS DUE TO THE
INCRSD CLD CVR. PCPN-WISE MDLS HV QUITE A DISPARITTY OF POPS. FOR
NHK MET GIVES A 70 POP WHILE MAV GIVES A 20. LATEST LAV GIVES SAME
SPOT A 5 POP!

ALSO LOOKING AT INCOMING EURO. THIS KEEPS THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE SHUNTED OVR THE CAROLINAS/PSBLY INTO SERN VA. THIS IS
ACTUALLY THE SCENARIO I WROTE LAST NGT...AND STILL SEEMS THE WAY
TO GO - ALTHO M CLDY TDA SHOULD BE GNRLY DRY - PERHAPS A FEW LGT
AREAS OF RA IN THE CENTRAL SHEN VLLY/LWR SRN MD.

HIGH TEMPS IN THE MU70S...XCPT A80 IN THE CITIES AND A70 IN THE
HIGHLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

AS THE DISORGANIZED UPR LVL SHORT WV MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS IT
APPEARS THAT ANOTHER SHORT WV CURRENTLY OVR NRN MN WL BE TRACKING
INTO THE ERN GRT LKS TNGT. IN REPONSE THIS WL HELP TO PUSH THE
CAROLINA LOW OFFSHORE. IF THERE IS A CHC OF RA TNGT THE BEST SHOT
WOULD BE IN LWR SRN MD.

LOWS IN THE 50S...XCPT L60S IN THE CITIES.

THE FOREMENTIONED GRT LKS SHORT WV IS XPCTD TO TRACK ACROSS PA
DURG THE DAY TUE. THIS MAY SPAWN RW/ISOLD TRW IN ERN W.V./WRN MD
DURG THE AFTN. POPS WL HELD TO 30 IN THE NWRN SXN OF THE CWA.
HIGHS GNRLY IN THE U70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE DRIFTING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT
INTO WED. THIS FEATURE SHOULD STAY LARGELY NORTH OF THE MASON-DIXON
LINE AS IT GETS COERCED EASTWARD AND DISSIPATES. THE PRECIP BANDS
ASSOCIATED W/ THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES SHOULD SPREAD SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MTNS AND SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE. KEPT A LOW CHANCE POP FOR NRN PARTS OF THE AREA AND MORE
OF AN OUTSIDE CHANCE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT FOR WED. DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY THE UPPER LOW EXITS...THERE COULD BE MORE CLOUD COVER/LOWER
TEMPS AND MORE OF A DRIZZLY DAY FOR SECTIONS OF THE AREA...ESP IF
SOME WEAK CAD SETS UP.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE ONE-DAY PASSAGE OF A WEAK RIDGE...IN BETWEEN
THE EXITING UPPER LOW AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT. SOME TRAPPED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BRING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE WRN HALF OF
THE AREA...MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT ON
TARGET FOR AVERAGE VALUES W/ PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. FAST ON THE HEELS
OF THIS BRIEF REPRIEVE WILL BE A POTENT AND QUICK-DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.

A COUPLE OF SMALLER UPPER WAVES WILL COMBINE OVER THE ENTIRE LENGTH
OF THE MS RVR VLY LATE THU...SPREADING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH - TENN
VLY AND UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE EARLY MRNG HRS FRI. THE MAIN
RESULTANT VORT MAX WILL START TO DISSIPATE AS IT CROSSES THE SRN
APLCNS AND MOVES TOWARD THE VA TIDEWATER REGION. SLIGHTLY LAGGING
BEHIND BUT NOT LACKING ANY PUNCH WILL BE YET ANOTHER UPPER WAVE -
THIS ONE PACKING THE CANADIAN AIR - WILL SWING IN FROM THE BEHIND
LATER IN THE DAY. A WAVE OF PRE-FRONTAL RAINS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
EAST COAST...INCLUDING OUR REGION...BUT IT DEPENDS ON THIS SECONDARY
INCOMING CANADIAN AIRMASS. THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE
COMING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EAST COAST SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE IF
MUCH OF PRECIP DISSIPATES AND PULLS UP NORTH OF US LATE FRI NIGHT.
THE 00Z EURO DOES JUST THAT...W/ A DEEP 537DM CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE WRN GREAT LAKES - WHICH TAKES THE DYNAMICS OF SYSTEM OFF TO THE
NORTH...ESSENTIALLY SCRAPING THE NRN PART OF THE CWA.

ALTHOUGH OUR HIGHS ON FRI WILL LIKELY REACH THE M-U70S AND THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THRU OVERNIGHT...LOWS WILL STILL ONLY DROP INTO THE
50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE MTNS WILL START TO SEE 40S OVERNIGHT
W/ THE COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR COMING IN...BUT THE FRONT WON`T ARRIVE
QUICK ENOUGH TO REALLY COOL OFF THE AREA - THAT WILL BE THE NEXT
NIGHT. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE APPROACHING ON SAT...SO CONDITIONS
WILL BE PLEASANT W/ HIGHS IN THE L70S AND A DRIER AIRMASS...BUT W/
THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDING OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY - SWEEPING IN
THE COLDER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS...OVERNIGHT LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE U40S AND L50S. ANOTHER ONE-DAY REPRIEVE BEFORE
ANOTHER CLIPPER SHORTWAVE LACKING PRECIP WILL SWING DOWN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES...REINFORCING THE COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ALTHO SKIES SHOULD BE M CLDY TDA CIGS SHOULD RMN VFR. THESE CLDS
SHOULD HELP TO SUPRESS FOG TNGT. ISOLD TRW ARE PSBL TUE AFTN IN
VNCTY MRB.

AN ACTIVE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...W/ A SYSTEM OR FRONTAL PASSAGE ABOUT
EVERY OTHER DAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL PASS BY ON WED...BRINGING A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS. CONDITIONS CLEARING OUT A BIT ON
THU...WHILE A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT
WILL SLIDE THRU THE REGION LATE FRI. HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE
WEEKEND...BUT COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN AIRMASS.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA VALUES TDA THRU TUE.

WEAK LOW PRES ON WED AND A QUIET THU. SLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT ON FRI. THE FRONT WILL BRING NW WINDS BEHIND IT THAT
WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/GMS








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