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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281039
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
639 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES NEEDED EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE FORECAST LOOKS RIGHT
ON TRACK. PREV DISCUSSION BELOW..
A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIGHTER DAY TODAY WITH
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY
COOL...BUT WILL MODIFY COMPARED TO WHAT WAS IN PLACE ON MONDAY.
WITH AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE AND THE ABSENCE OF MONDAY`S COLD
AIR...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEATHER REMAINS QUIET TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE THURSDAY AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT
ON WHERE AND WHEN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY. EXPECT MANY
CHANGES TO THURSDAY`S FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL DIFFERENCES AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES CONTINUE TO MAKE
THE EXTENDED A FORECAST CHALLENGE. MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON LOCATION AND EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF WHICH HAS
SHOWN BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS RIDGING TRANSITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT AND
NORTHWESTERLY.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH
THURSDAY LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281039
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
639 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES NEEDED EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE FORECAST LOOKS RIGHT
ON TRACK. PREV DISCUSSION BELOW..
A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIGHTER DAY TODAY WITH
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY
COOL...BUT WILL MODIFY COMPARED TO WHAT WAS IN PLACE ON MONDAY.
WITH AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE AND THE ABSENCE OF MONDAY`S COLD
AIR...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEATHER REMAINS QUIET TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE THURSDAY AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT
ON WHERE AND WHEN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY. EXPECT MANY
CHANGES TO THURSDAY`S FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL DIFFERENCES AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES CONTINUE TO MAKE
THE EXTENDED A FORECAST CHALLENGE. MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON LOCATION AND EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF WHICH HAS
SHOWN BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS RIDGING TRANSITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT AND
NORTHWESTERLY.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH
THURSDAY LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281039
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
639 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES NEEDED EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE FORECAST LOOKS RIGHT
ON TRACK. PREV DISCUSSION BELOW..
A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIGHTER DAY TODAY WITH
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY
COOL...BUT WILL MODIFY COMPARED TO WHAT WAS IN PLACE ON MONDAY.
WITH AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE AND THE ABSENCE OF MONDAY`S COLD
AIR...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEATHER REMAINS QUIET TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE THURSDAY AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT
ON WHERE AND WHEN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY. EXPECT MANY
CHANGES TO THURSDAY`S FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL DIFFERENCES AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES CONTINUE TO MAKE
THE EXTENDED A FORECAST CHALLENGE. MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON LOCATION AND EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF WHICH HAS
SHOWN BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS RIDGING TRANSITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT AND
NORTHWESTERLY.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH
THURSDAY LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPHI 280848
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
448 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC WILL
MOVE SLOWLY OUT TO SEA. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA
COASTS STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST LATER THIS COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER FINE WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC TODAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE WEST BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA. A DECENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TODAY WILL RELAX DURING THE
AFTERNOON. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA. THESE READINGS WILL BE JUST A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NORTH OR NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH THIS MORNING...THEN DECREASING WINDS BACK
TO 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. ENJOY !

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER TONIGHT. SKIES WILL
BE MAINLY CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
INTO THE LOW 40S NORTH AND MID OR UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB: BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS PREVAIL IN OUR AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING AS ONE CLOSED LOW IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WEAKENS EASTWARD
WITH A NEW CLOSED LOW PROBABLY FORMING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THURSDAY. IT DEPARTS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY.
WARMER RIDGING SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY
AND PERSIST NEXT WEEK!

TEMPERATURES: THE MONTH AS A WHOLE IS NOW AVERAGING WITHIN A DEGREE
OF NORMAL THROUGH THE 27TH, EVER SO SLIGHTLY ON THE WARM SIDE OF
NORMAL. LITTLE CHANGE IS FORESEEN IN THE APRIL OUTCOME. CALENDAR DAY
AVERAGES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WED-THU AND SATURDAY, MAYBE 2 TO 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY. A WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/28
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN GFS MAVMOS
ONLY FOR THURSDAY, 00Z/28 MEX MOS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN
THE 0521Z/28 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6
HOUR DEWPOINT- SKY-WIND FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 15 MPH IN THE
AFTN. SEABREEZES COASTS? CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE. THE ECMWF TSECTION
IS DRIER THAN THE GFS.

THEREAFTER: THE 00Z/28 NAM WAS PRETTY MUCH DISREGARDED AFTER 12Z
THURSDAY IN LIEU OF GEFS/ECEFS GUIDANCE-PATTERN.

REGARDING THE NEW GFS IMPLEMENTED EARLIER THIS YEAR.  WE ARE AWARE
OF ITS WET BIAS BUT ITS NOT ALWAYS SO. MULTI MODEL CHOICES
CONTINUE. ITS APPEARING TO ME THE GEFS IS A MORE RELIABLE PREDICTOR
THAN THE GFS OPERATIONAL MODEL (OPERATIONAL MORE VARIABLE AND
MAYBE WETTER BULLSEYES). THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE GGEM-NAEFS
APPROACH.

THE 00Z/28 GEFS TRENDED SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST BUT STILL RATHER
ROBUST. ITS SO HARD TO BELIEVE WHEN YOU CHECK IT AGAINST THE
UK/GGEM/ECMWF. UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST CONTINUES.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. GUSTY NE WIND 15-20 MPH
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND 20 TO 30 MPH FRIDAY. HAVE GENERALLY
MAINTAINED THE 330 PM MONDAY MOUNT HOLLY WFO FCST POPS AND TEMPS
FOR THIS PERIOD, DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. THE 00Z/28 GEFS AND NAEFS
STILL FCST 1/2 INCH OR GREATER SE PTN OF THE FA AND 6 HR PROBS
FOR .05 ARE VERY HIGH ON FRIDAY. 850 ENE INFLOW LOOKS TO BE -3SD
BUT IF THE GEFS CLOSED LOW VERIFIES MUCH WEAKER AS PER THE ECMWF,
THE SFC LOW WILL BE EAST AND MUCH WEAKER. TEMPS WERE CONTINUITY
MESHED WITH THE 00Z/28 2M 18Z THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FORECAST ECMWF
TEMPS.

SATURDAY...P/C. NW WIND GUSTY 20 MPH. THE EC HAS A CHANCE OF A
SHOWER.  SO CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE.

SUNDAY...P/C WITH A WEST WIND 10-15 MPH.  MILDER.   CONFIDENCE:
AVERAGE (EC DRIER THAN GFS)

MONDAY...P/C AND MILDER. THE 00Z/28 EC HAS A SHOWER RISK LATE.
LIGHT WIND. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A LARGE SFC/UPPER AIR LOW WELL TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO
THE WEST WILL KEEP A NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE MODEST...SO SOME GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS CAN
BE EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SKY COVER...WHICH IS
MOSTLY BKN/OVC EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD IMPROVE TO MOSTLY FEW/SCT
AFTER MIXING OCCURS SINCE THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE TRENDING TOWARD
LOWER DEW POINTS. TONIGHT...LIGHTER WINDS AND MOSTLY SKC.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND GUST AOB 15KT. LATE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZES COASTS? NEARLY CALM WIND AT NIGHT. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE
AVERAGE.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY....VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDS IN
RAIN OR SHOWERS LATE THU INTO FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY KACY/KMIV/KILG.
SUSTAINED EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH ITS POTENTIAL IMPACT ON
OPERATIONS AT KPHL. NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS 20 KT LATE THU AFTN AND
POSSIBLY 20-30 KT AT TIMES FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE. THE
GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES ARE ALONE ON THIS BLEAKER SCENARIO WHEREAS
OTHER TYPICALLY REVIEWED MODELS ARE NOT AS PESSIMISTIC ABOUT
A SIGNIFICANT WESTERN ATLANTIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. CONFIDENCE BELOW AVERAGE
SINCE THE ECMWF HAS MODELED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA FLAG ALREADY UP OVER THE WATERS WILL BE KEPT SINCE WIND
GUSTS PRESENTLY ARE AROUND 25 KTS AND THEY SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING. WIND GUSTS SHOULD DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON...SO WE WILL KEEP
THE NOON ENDING TIME THE SAME FOR NOW. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 2 TO 4 FT
TODAY AND THE DECREASE TONIGHT. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
PROBABLY BE NEEDED FOR WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND FOR WAVES
ON OUR OCEAN WATERS IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET...POSSIBLY 7 TO 10 FEET
FRIDAY. THE WIND DIRECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO BACK GRADUALLY FROM
THE EAST TO THE NORTH. THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE
FORCE NORTHEAST TO NORTH GUSTS ON FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERION. HOWEVER, WAVE HEIGHTS ON
OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND OR ABOVE 5 FEET...POSSIBLY 7
FEET OR MORE EAST OF DELAWARE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MARGINAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE GREATEST
WIND GUSTS WILL BE THIS MORNING...WHILE THE LOWERS RH VALUES
(LOW/MID 30S PCT) WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
SPS FOR NOW. THE DAY SHIFT MAY CONTACT THE FIRE WX PARTNERS FOR
FURTHER ACTION IF NEEDED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...DRAG 447A
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 280848
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
448 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC WILL
MOVE SLOWLY OUT TO SEA. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA
COASTS STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST LATER THIS COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER FINE WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC TODAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE WEST BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA. A DECENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TODAY WILL RELAX DURING THE
AFTERNOON. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA. THESE READINGS WILL BE JUST A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NORTH OR NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH THIS MORNING...THEN DECREASING WINDS BACK
TO 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. ENJOY !

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER TONIGHT. SKIES WILL
BE MAINLY CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
INTO THE LOW 40S NORTH AND MID OR UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB: BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS PREVAIL IN OUR AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING AS ONE CLOSED LOW IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WEAKENS EASTWARD
WITH A NEW CLOSED LOW PROBABLY FORMING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THURSDAY. IT DEPARTS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY.
WARMER RIDGING SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY
AND PERSIST NEXT WEEK!

TEMPERATURES: THE MONTH AS A WHOLE IS NOW AVERAGING WITHIN A DEGREE
OF NORMAL THROUGH THE 27TH, EVER SO SLIGHTLY ON THE WARM SIDE OF
NORMAL. LITTLE CHANGE IS FORESEEN IN THE APRIL OUTCOME. CALENDAR DAY
AVERAGES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WED-THU AND SATURDAY, MAYBE 2 TO 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY. A WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/28
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN GFS MAVMOS
ONLY FOR THURSDAY, 00Z/28 MEX MOS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN
THE 0521Z/28 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6
HOUR DEWPOINT- SKY-WIND FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 15 MPH IN THE
AFTN. SEABREEZES COASTS? CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE. THE ECMWF TSECTION
IS DRIER THAN THE GFS.

THEREAFTER: THE 00Z/28 NAM WAS PRETTY MUCH DISREGARDED AFTER 12Z
THURSDAY IN LIEU OF GEFS/ECEFS GUIDANCE-PATTERN.

REGARDING THE NEW GFS IMPLEMENTED EARLIER THIS YEAR.  WE ARE AWARE
OF ITS WET BIAS BUT ITS NOT ALWAYS SO. MULTI MODEL CHOICES
CONTINUE. ITS APPEARING TO ME THE GEFS IS A MORE RELIABLE PREDICTOR
THAN THE GFS OPERATIONAL MODEL (OPERATIONAL MORE VARIABLE AND
MAYBE WETTER BULLSEYES). THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE GGEM-NAEFS
APPROACH.

THE 00Z/28 GEFS TRENDED SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST BUT STILL RATHER
ROBUST. ITS SO HARD TO BELIEVE WHEN YOU CHECK IT AGAINST THE
UK/GGEM/ECMWF. UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST CONTINUES.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. GUSTY NE WIND 15-20 MPH
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND 20 TO 30 MPH FRIDAY. HAVE GENERALLY
MAINTAINED THE 330 PM MONDAY MOUNT HOLLY WFO FCST POPS AND TEMPS
FOR THIS PERIOD, DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. THE 00Z/28 GEFS AND NAEFS
STILL FCST 1/2 INCH OR GREATER SE PTN OF THE FA AND 6 HR PROBS
FOR .05 ARE VERY HIGH ON FRIDAY. 850 ENE INFLOW LOOKS TO BE -3SD
BUT IF THE GEFS CLOSED LOW VERIFIES MUCH WEAKER AS PER THE ECMWF,
THE SFC LOW WILL BE EAST AND MUCH WEAKER. TEMPS WERE CONTINUITY
MESHED WITH THE 00Z/28 2M 18Z THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FORECAST ECMWF
TEMPS.

SATURDAY...P/C. NW WIND GUSTY 20 MPH. THE EC HAS A CHANCE OF A
SHOWER.  SO CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE.

SUNDAY...P/C WITH A WEST WIND 10-15 MPH.  MILDER.   CONFIDENCE:
AVERAGE (EC DRIER THAN GFS)

MONDAY...P/C AND MILDER. THE 00Z/28 EC HAS A SHOWER RISK LATE.
LIGHT WIND. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A LARGE SFC/UPPER AIR LOW WELL TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO
THE WEST WILL KEEP A NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE MODEST...SO SOME GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS CAN
BE EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SKY COVER...WHICH IS
MOSTLY BKN/OVC EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD IMPROVE TO MOSTLY FEW/SCT
AFTER MIXING OCCURS SINCE THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE TRENDING TOWARD
LOWER DEW POINTS. TONIGHT...LIGHTER WINDS AND MOSTLY SKC.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND GUST AOB 15KT. LATE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZES COASTS? NEARLY CALM WIND AT NIGHT. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE
AVERAGE.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY....VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDS IN
RAIN OR SHOWERS LATE THU INTO FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY KACY/KMIV/KILG.
SUSTAINED EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH ITS POTENTIAL IMPACT ON
OPERATIONS AT KPHL. NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS 20 KT LATE THU AFTN AND
POSSIBLY 20-30 KT AT TIMES FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE. THE
GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES ARE ALONE ON THIS BLEAKER SCENARIO WHEREAS
OTHER TYPICALLY REVIEWED MODELS ARE NOT AS PESSIMISTIC ABOUT
A SIGNIFICANT WESTERN ATLANTIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. CONFIDENCE BELOW AVERAGE
SINCE THE ECMWF HAS MODELED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA FLAG ALREADY UP OVER THE WATERS WILL BE KEPT SINCE WIND
GUSTS PRESENTLY ARE AROUND 25 KTS AND THEY SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING. WIND GUSTS SHOULD DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON...SO WE WILL KEEP
THE NOON ENDING TIME THE SAME FOR NOW. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 2 TO 4 FT
TODAY AND THE DECREASE TONIGHT. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
PROBABLY BE NEEDED FOR WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND FOR WAVES
ON OUR OCEAN WATERS IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET...POSSIBLY 7 TO 10 FEET
FRIDAY. THE WIND DIRECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO BACK GRADUALLY FROM
THE EAST TO THE NORTH. THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE
FORCE NORTHEAST TO NORTH GUSTS ON FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERION. HOWEVER, WAVE HEIGHTS ON
OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND OR ABOVE 5 FEET...POSSIBLY 7
FEET OR MORE EAST OF DELAWARE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MARGINAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE GREATEST
WIND GUSTS WILL BE THIS MORNING...WHILE THE LOWERS RH VALUES
(LOW/MID 30S PCT) WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
SPS FOR NOW. THE DAY SHIFT MAY CONTACT THE FIRE WX PARTNERS FOR
FURTHER ACTION IF NEEDED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...DRAG 447A
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280828
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
428 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HI PRES OVR THE UPR MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL BLD NW TWD THE
MID ATLC REGION TODAY INTO THIS EVENG. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SNY SKY WITH MAX TEMPS RANGING FM THE MID 60S TO
NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HI PRES THEN WEAKENS AND DRIFTS OFF THE CST TNGT THRU WED
MORNG...MAINTAINING DRY WX ACRS THE REGION. LOWS TNGT RANGING FM
THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S. LO PRES WILL THEN MOVE EWRD ACRS THE GULF
OF MEXICO TUE NGT...THEN TRACKS NE OFF THE SC AND NC CSTS WED THRU
THU. BASED ON THE LATEST (00Z) GUIDANCE...AND GOING WITH A BLEND
OF THE ECMWF/GFS...HAVE SLOWED DOWN AND ADJUSTED POPS FOR WED AFTN
AND WED NGT. INCREASING CLOUDINESS DURING WED WITH HIGHS RANGING
FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S. ONLY HAVE 20% TO 30% POPS MOVING INTO
WRN AND SRN COUNTIES WED AFTN INTO WED EVENG...THEN 20% TO 40%
POPS WED NGT. LOWS WED NGT IN THE UPR 40S TO LWR 50S. POPS WILL
THEN INCREASE TO 50% TO 60% ON THU...AS UPR TROF BLDS INTO AND OVR
THE AREA FM THE NW...WHILE SFC LO PRES MOVES UP OFF THE NC CST.
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY AND COOLER ON THU WITH HIGHS RANGING FM
THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW TRAVERSES THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT
THEN PUSHES WELL OUT TO SEA BY LATE FRIDAY. SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN PRIMARILY OVER EASTERN AREAS
FRIDAY MORNING/MIDDAY...BEFORE FINALLY ENDING LATE FRI AFTN OR EVE.
WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS (60%) MOST AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SOLID
CHC POPS (30-40%) ON FRIDAY. DRY WX THEN RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AND AN H5 RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S THU/FRI
NIGHTS...WARMING INTO MID/UPR 50S BY NEXT SUN/MON NIGHTS. HIGHS
FRIDAY FROM THE LOW 60S EASTERN SHORE TO THE UPR 60S FAR SW ZONES.
HIGH TEMPS WARM BY NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE 70S...WITH LOW 80S POSSIBLE
INLAND NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST TUESDAY.
DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA SHOULD KEEP THE SKY MOSTLY CLEAR.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY EVENING. A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BEGINNING
THURSDAY MORNING WITH A LIKELIHOOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND THE
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHRAS OVER SRN VA AND NC. RAIN AND MVFR/LCL
PERIODS OF IFR ARE FORECAST THU NGT BEFORE ENDING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT NW FLOW OVER THE WATER THIS MORNING. SFC LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER NEW ENGLAND/ATLANTIC CANADA.
MEANWHILE, THE PASSAGE OF A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE HAS ALLOWED
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOLID SCA ACROSS MUCH
OF THE MARINE AREA THIS MORNING. INHERITED SCA HEADLINES REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH MID MORNING, THEN GRADUALLY LOWER OVER
THE RIVERS FIRST, THEN THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS BY MIDDAY. SEAS
OVER THE LOCAL AREA HAVE INCREASED TO 2-4 FT ON THE BAY THIS
MORNING, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3-5 FT ON THE OCEAN. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE THIS AFTN THRU WED NIGHT. PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS ENOUGH
TO ALLOW QUIETER/MORE BENIGN CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH WED AFTN AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS LOOK TO
GO DOWNHILL ONCE AGAIN WED AFTN/NIGHT AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE NE AND BECOME LOCATED ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST THU/THU AFTN, ALLOWING WINDS TO BACK TO THE NE AND INCREASE
THURSDAY NIGHT. HV SLOWED DOWN TIMING SLIGHTLY AND GONE WITH A
BLENDED GUIDANCE SOLUTION FOR NOW WITH THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM AS 00Z/28
MODELS DEPICTING A WEAKER, LESS PHASED SYSTEM. HV GONE WITH BLENDED
FORECAST OF WAVEWATCH AND CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST TO DEPICT RISING
SEAS THU AFTN/EVE INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA TO BE
NECESSARY THU AFTN/EVE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>634-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB/TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280828
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
428 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HI PRES OVR THE UPR MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL BLD NW TWD THE
MID ATLC REGION TODAY INTO THIS EVENG. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SNY SKY WITH MAX TEMPS RANGING FM THE MID 60S TO
NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HI PRES THEN WEAKENS AND DRIFTS OFF THE CST TNGT THRU WED
MORNG...MAINTAINING DRY WX ACRS THE REGION. LOWS TNGT RANGING FM
THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S. LO PRES WILL THEN MOVE EWRD ACRS THE GULF
OF MEXICO TUE NGT...THEN TRACKS NE OFF THE SC AND NC CSTS WED THRU
THU. BASED ON THE LATEST (00Z) GUIDANCE...AND GOING WITH A BLEND
OF THE ECMWF/GFS...HAVE SLOWED DOWN AND ADJUSTED POPS FOR WED AFTN
AND WED NGT. INCREASING CLOUDINESS DURING WED WITH HIGHS RANGING
FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S. ONLY HAVE 20% TO 30% POPS MOVING INTO
WRN AND SRN COUNTIES WED AFTN INTO WED EVENG...THEN 20% TO 40%
POPS WED NGT. LOWS WED NGT IN THE UPR 40S TO LWR 50S. POPS WILL
THEN INCREASE TO 50% TO 60% ON THU...AS UPR TROF BLDS INTO AND OVR
THE AREA FM THE NW...WHILE SFC LO PRES MOVES UP OFF THE NC CST.
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY AND COOLER ON THU WITH HIGHS RANGING FM
THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW TRAVERSES THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT
THEN PUSHES WELL OUT TO SEA BY LATE FRIDAY. SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN PRIMARILY OVER EASTERN AREAS
FRIDAY MORNING/MIDDAY...BEFORE FINALLY ENDING LATE FRI AFTN OR EVE.
WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS (60%) MOST AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SOLID
CHC POPS (30-40%) ON FRIDAY. DRY WX THEN RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AND AN H5 RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S THU/FRI
NIGHTS...WARMING INTO MID/UPR 50S BY NEXT SUN/MON NIGHTS. HIGHS
FRIDAY FROM THE LOW 60S EASTERN SHORE TO THE UPR 60S FAR SW ZONES.
HIGH TEMPS WARM BY NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE 70S...WITH LOW 80S POSSIBLE
INLAND NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST TUESDAY.
DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA SHOULD KEEP THE SKY MOSTLY CLEAR.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY EVENING. A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BEGINNING
THURSDAY MORNING WITH A LIKELIHOOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND THE
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHRAS OVER SRN VA AND NC. RAIN AND MVFR/LCL
PERIODS OF IFR ARE FORECAST THU NGT BEFORE ENDING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT NW FLOW OVER THE WATER THIS MORNING. SFC LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER NEW ENGLAND/ATLANTIC CANADA.
MEANWHILE, THE PASSAGE OF A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE HAS ALLOWED
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOLID SCA ACROSS MUCH
OF THE MARINE AREA THIS MORNING. INHERITED SCA HEADLINES REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH MID MORNING, THEN GRADUALLY LOWER OVER
THE RIVERS FIRST, THEN THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS BY MIDDAY. SEAS
OVER THE LOCAL AREA HAVE INCREASED TO 2-4 FT ON THE BAY THIS
MORNING, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3-5 FT ON THE OCEAN. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE THIS AFTN THRU WED NIGHT. PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS ENOUGH
TO ALLOW QUIETER/MORE BENIGN CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH WED AFTN AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS LOOK TO
GO DOWNHILL ONCE AGAIN WED AFTN/NIGHT AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE NE AND BECOME LOCATED ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST THU/THU AFTN, ALLOWING WINDS TO BACK TO THE NE AND INCREASE
THURSDAY NIGHT. HV SLOWED DOWN TIMING SLIGHTLY AND GONE WITH A
BLENDED GUIDANCE SOLUTION FOR NOW WITH THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM AS 00Z/28
MODELS DEPICTING A WEAKER, LESS PHASED SYSTEM. HV GONE WITH BLENDED
FORECAST OF WAVEWATCH AND CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST TO DEPICT RISING
SEAS THU AFTN/EVE INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA TO BE
NECESSARY THU AFTN/EVE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>634-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB/TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280811
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
411 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIGHTER DAY TODAY WITH
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY
COOL...BUT WILL MODIFY COMPARED TO WHAT WAS IN PLACE ON MONDAY.
WITH AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE AND THE ABSENCE OF MONDAY`S COLD
AIR...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEATHER REMAINS QUIET TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE THURSDAY AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT
ON WHERE AND WHEN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY. EXPECT MANY
CHANGES TO THURSDAY`S FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL DIFFERENCES AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES CONTINUE TO MAKE
THE EXTENDED A FORECAST CHALLENGE. MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON LOCATION AND EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF WHICH HAS
SHOWN BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS RIDGING TRANSITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT AND
NORTHWESTERLY.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH
THURSDAY LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280811
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
411 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIGHTER DAY TODAY WITH
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY
COOL...BUT WILL MODIFY COMPARED TO WHAT WAS IN PLACE ON MONDAY.
WITH AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE AND THE ABSENCE OF MONDAY`S COLD
AIR...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEATHER REMAINS QUIET TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE THURSDAY AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT
ON WHERE AND WHEN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY. EXPECT MANY
CHANGES TO THURSDAY`S FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL DIFFERENCES AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES CONTINUE TO MAKE
THE EXTENDED A FORECAST CHALLENGE. MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON LOCATION AND EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF WHICH HAS
SHOWN BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS RIDGING TRANSITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT AND
NORTHWESTERLY.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH
THURSDAY LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPHI 280805
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
405 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC WILL
MOVE SLOWLY OUT TO SEA. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA
COASTS STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST LATER THIS COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER FINE WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC TODAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE WEST BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA. A DECENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TODAY WILL RELAX DURING THE
AFTERNOON. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA. THESE READINGS WILL BE JUST A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NORTH OR NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH THIS MORNING...THEN DECREASING WINDS BACK
TO 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. ENJOY !


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER TONIGHT. SKIES WILL
BE MAINLY CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
INTO THE LOW 40S NORTH AND MID OR UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB: BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS PREVAIL IN OUR AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING AS ONE CLOSED LOW IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WEAKENS EASTWARD
WITH A NEW CLOSED LOW PROBABLY FORMS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
THURSDAY. IT DEPARTS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY. WARMER
RIDGING SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY AND
PERSIST NEXT WEEK!

TEMPERATURES: THE MONTH AS A WHOLE IS NOW AVERAGING WITHIN A DEGREE
OF NORMAL THROUGH THE 27TH, EVER SO SLIGHTLY ON THE WARM SIDE OF
NORMAL. LITTLE CHANGE IS FORESEEN IN THE APRIL OUTCOME. CALENDAR DAY
AVERAGES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WED-THU AND SATURDAY, MAYBE 2 TO 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY. A WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/28
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN GFS ONLY
THURSDAY, 00Z/28 MEX MOS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN THE
0521Z/28 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR
DEWPOINT- SKY-WIND FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 15 MPH IN THE
AFTN. SEABREEZES COASTS? CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE. THE ECMWF TSECTION
IS DRIER THAN THE GFS.

THEREAFTER: THE 00Z/28 NAM WAS PRETTY MUCH DISCARDED AFTER 12Z
THURSDAY IN LIEU OF GEFS/ECEFS GUIDANCE-PATTERN.

REGARDING THE NEW GFS IMPLEMENTED EARLIER THIS YEAR.  WE ARE AWARE
OF ITS WET BIAS BUT ITS NOT ALWAYS SO. MULTI MODEL CHOICES
CONTINUE. ITS APPEARING TO ME THE GEFS IS A MORE RELIABLE PREDICTOR
THAN THE GFS OPERATIONAL MODEL (OPERATIONAL MORE VARIABLE AND
MAYBE WETTER BULLSEYES. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE GGEM-NAEFS
APPROACH.

THE 00Z/28 GEFS TRENDED SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST BUT STILL RATHER
ROBUST. ITS SO HARD TO BELIEVE WHEN YOU CHECK IT AGAINST THE
UK/GGEM/ECMWF. UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST CONTINUES.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. GUSTY NE WIND 15-20 MPH
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND 20 TO 30 MPH FRIDAY. HAVE GENERALLY
MAINTAINED THE 330 PM MONDAY FCST POPS AND TEMPS FOR THIS PERIOD,
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. THE 00Z/28 GEFS AND NAEFS STILL FCST 1/2
INCH OR GREATER SE PTN OF THE FA AND 850 ENE INFLOW LOOKS TO -3
SD BUT IF THE CLOSED LOW VERIFIES MUCH WEAKER AS PER THE ECMWF,
THE SFC LOW WILL BE EAST AND MUCH WEAKER. TEMPS WERE CONTINUITY
MESHED WITH THE 2M 18Z ECMWF TEMPS.

SATURDAY...P/C. NW WIND GUSTY 20 MPH. THE EC HAS A CHANCE OF A
SHOWER.  SO CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE.

SUNDAY...P/C WITH A WEST WIND 10-15 MPH.  MILDER.   CONFIDENCE:
AVERAGE (EC DRIER THAN GFS)

MONDAY...P/C AND MILDER. THE 00Z/28 EC HAS A SHOWER RISK LATE.
LIGHT WIND. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A LARGE SFC/UPPER AIR LOW WELL TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO
THE WEST WILL KEEP A NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE MODEST...SO SOME GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS CAN
BE EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SKY COVER...WHICH IS
MOSTLY BKN/OVC EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD IMPROVE TO MOSTLY FEW/SCT
AFTER MIXING OCCURS SINCE THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE TRENDING TOWARD
LOWER DEW POINTS. TONIGHT...LIGHTER WINDS AND MOSTLY SKC.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND GUST AOB 15KT. LATE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZES COASTS? NEARLY CALM WIND AT NIGHT. CONFIDENCE; ABOVE
AVERAGE.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY....VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDS IN
RAIN OR SHOWERS LATE THU INTO FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY KACY/KMIV/KILG.
SUSTAINED EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH ITS POTENTIAL IMPACT ON
OPERATIONS AT KPHL. NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS 20 KT LATE THU AFTN AND
POSSIBLY 20-30 KT AT TIMES FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE. THE
GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES ARE ALONE ON THIS BLEAKER SCENARIO WHEREAS
OTHER TYPICALLY REVIEWED MODELS ARE NOT AS PESSIMISTIC ABOUT
A SIGNIFICANT WESTERN ATLANTIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. CONFIDENCE BELOW AVERAGE
SINCE THE ECMWF HAS MODELED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA FLAG ALREADY UP OVER THE WATERS WILL BE KEPT SINCE WIND
GUSTS PRESENTLY ARE AROUND 25 KTS AND THEY SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING. WIND GUSTS SHOULD DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON...SO WE WILL KEEP
THE NOON ENDING TIME THE SAME FOR NOW. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 2 TO 4 FT
TODAY AND THE DECREASE TONIGHT. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
PROBABLY BE NEEDED FOR WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND FOR WAVES
ON OUR OCEAN WATERS IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET...POSSIBLY 7 TO 10 FEET
FRIDAY. THE WIND DIRECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO BACK GRADUALLY FROM
THE EAST TO THE NORTH. THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE
FORCE NORTHEAST TO NORTH GUSTS ON FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERION. HOWEVER, WAVE HEIGHTS ON
OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND OR ABOVE 5 FEET...POSSIBLY 7
FEET OR MORE EAST OF DELAWARE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MARGINAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE GREATEST
WIND GUSTS WILL BE THIS MORNING...WHILE THE LOWERS RH VALUES
(LOW/MID 30S PCT) WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
SPS FOR NOW. THE DAY SHIFT MAY CONTACT THE FIRE WX PARTNERS FOR
FURTHER ACTION IF NEEDED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 404
NEAR TERM...O`HARA 404
SHORT TERM...O`HARA 404
LONG TERM...DRAG 404
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA 404
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA 404
FIRE WEATHER...404



000
FXUS61 KPHI 280805
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
405 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC WILL
MOVE SLOWLY OUT TO SEA. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA
COASTS STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST LATER THIS COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER FINE WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC TODAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE WEST BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA. A DECENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TODAY WILL RELAX DURING THE
AFTERNOON. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA. THESE READINGS WILL BE JUST A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NORTH OR NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH THIS MORNING...THEN DECREASING WINDS BACK
TO 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. ENJOY !


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER TONIGHT. SKIES WILL
BE MAINLY CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
INTO THE LOW 40S NORTH AND MID OR UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB: BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS PREVAIL IN OUR AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING AS ONE CLOSED LOW IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WEAKENS EASTWARD
WITH A NEW CLOSED LOW PROBABLY FORMS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
THURSDAY. IT DEPARTS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY. WARMER
RIDGING SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY AND
PERSIST NEXT WEEK!

TEMPERATURES: THE MONTH AS A WHOLE IS NOW AVERAGING WITHIN A DEGREE
OF NORMAL THROUGH THE 27TH, EVER SO SLIGHTLY ON THE WARM SIDE OF
NORMAL. LITTLE CHANGE IS FORESEEN IN THE APRIL OUTCOME. CALENDAR DAY
AVERAGES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WED-THU AND SATURDAY, MAYBE 2 TO 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY. A WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/28
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN GFS ONLY
THURSDAY, 00Z/28 MEX MOS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN THE
0521Z/28 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR
DEWPOINT- SKY-WIND FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 15 MPH IN THE
AFTN. SEABREEZES COASTS? CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE. THE ECMWF TSECTION
IS DRIER THAN THE GFS.

THEREAFTER: THE 00Z/28 NAM WAS PRETTY MUCH DISCARDED AFTER 12Z
THURSDAY IN LIEU OF GEFS/ECEFS GUIDANCE-PATTERN.

REGARDING THE NEW GFS IMPLEMENTED EARLIER THIS YEAR.  WE ARE AWARE
OF ITS WET BIAS BUT ITS NOT ALWAYS SO. MULTI MODEL CHOICES
CONTINUE. ITS APPEARING TO ME THE GEFS IS A MORE RELIABLE PREDICTOR
THAN THE GFS OPERATIONAL MODEL (OPERATIONAL MORE VARIABLE AND
MAYBE WETTER BULLSEYES. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE GGEM-NAEFS
APPROACH.

THE 00Z/28 GEFS TRENDED SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST BUT STILL RATHER
ROBUST. ITS SO HARD TO BELIEVE WHEN YOU CHECK IT AGAINST THE
UK/GGEM/ECMWF. UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST CONTINUES.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. GUSTY NE WIND 15-20 MPH
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND 20 TO 30 MPH FRIDAY. HAVE GENERALLY
MAINTAINED THE 330 PM MONDAY FCST POPS AND TEMPS FOR THIS PERIOD,
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. THE 00Z/28 GEFS AND NAEFS STILL FCST 1/2
INCH OR GREATER SE PTN OF THE FA AND 850 ENE INFLOW LOOKS TO -3
SD BUT IF THE CLOSED LOW VERIFIES MUCH WEAKER AS PER THE ECMWF,
THE SFC LOW WILL BE EAST AND MUCH WEAKER. TEMPS WERE CONTINUITY
MESHED WITH THE 2M 18Z ECMWF TEMPS.

SATURDAY...P/C. NW WIND GUSTY 20 MPH. THE EC HAS A CHANCE OF A
SHOWER.  SO CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE.

SUNDAY...P/C WITH A WEST WIND 10-15 MPH.  MILDER.   CONFIDENCE:
AVERAGE (EC DRIER THAN GFS)

MONDAY...P/C AND MILDER. THE 00Z/28 EC HAS A SHOWER RISK LATE.
LIGHT WIND. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A LARGE SFC/UPPER AIR LOW WELL TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO
THE WEST WILL KEEP A NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE MODEST...SO SOME GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS CAN
BE EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SKY COVER...WHICH IS
MOSTLY BKN/OVC EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD IMPROVE TO MOSTLY FEW/SCT
AFTER MIXING OCCURS SINCE THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE TRENDING TOWARD
LOWER DEW POINTS. TONIGHT...LIGHTER WINDS AND MOSTLY SKC.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND GUST AOB 15KT. LATE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZES COASTS? NEARLY CALM WIND AT NIGHT. CONFIDENCE; ABOVE
AVERAGE.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY....VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDS IN
RAIN OR SHOWERS LATE THU INTO FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY KACY/KMIV/KILG.
SUSTAINED EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH ITS POTENTIAL IMPACT ON
OPERATIONS AT KPHL. NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS 20 KT LATE THU AFTN AND
POSSIBLY 20-30 KT AT TIMES FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE. THE
GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES ARE ALONE ON THIS BLEAKER SCENARIO WHEREAS
OTHER TYPICALLY REVIEWED MODELS ARE NOT AS PESSIMISTIC ABOUT
A SIGNIFICANT WESTERN ATLANTIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. CONFIDENCE BELOW AVERAGE
SINCE THE ECMWF HAS MODELED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA FLAG ALREADY UP OVER THE WATERS WILL BE KEPT SINCE WIND
GUSTS PRESENTLY ARE AROUND 25 KTS AND THEY SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING. WIND GUSTS SHOULD DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON...SO WE WILL KEEP
THE NOON ENDING TIME THE SAME FOR NOW. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 2 TO 4 FT
TODAY AND THE DECREASE TONIGHT. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
PROBABLY BE NEEDED FOR WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND FOR WAVES
ON OUR OCEAN WATERS IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET...POSSIBLY 7 TO 10 FEET
FRIDAY. THE WIND DIRECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO BACK GRADUALLY FROM
THE EAST TO THE NORTH. THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE
FORCE NORTHEAST TO NORTH GUSTS ON FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERION. HOWEVER, WAVE HEIGHTS ON
OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND OR ABOVE 5 FEET...POSSIBLY 7
FEET OR MORE EAST OF DELAWARE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MARGINAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE GREATEST
WIND GUSTS WILL BE THIS MORNING...WHILE THE LOWERS RH VALUES
(LOW/MID 30S PCT) WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
SPS FOR NOW. THE DAY SHIFT MAY CONTACT THE FIRE WX PARTNERS FOR
FURTHER ACTION IF NEEDED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 404
NEAR TERM...O`HARA 404
SHORT TERM...O`HARA 404
LONG TERM...DRAG 404
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA 404
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA 404
FIRE WEATHER...404



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KLWX 280753
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
353 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
IMPACT THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

W.V. IMGRY SHOWS THE UPR TROF IS MOVG THRU THE MID ATLC - PRSNTLY
BRINGING 050-100 FT CLDS ACROSS THE NRN 1/3 OF THE AREA. THESE WL
BE TRACKING S THRU THE RMNDR OF THE OVRNGT HRS.

HIGH PRES OVR THE UPR MIDWEST WL BE BLDG INTO THE FCST AREA TDA.
SKIES SHOULD BE P SUN...CLRG LATE THIS AFTN. HIGH TEMPS WL MAINLY
BE IN THE M60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

LOW PRES WHICH HAS BEEN SPINNING IN THE GULF OF ME FOR THE PAST 2
DAYS WL BE MOVG VERY SLOWLY FURTHER OUT TO SEA AS HIGH PRES MOVES
CLOSER TO THE E CST. THIS WL PROVIDE A MAINLY CLR OVRNGT. MAJORITY
OF THE FCST WL SEE LOWS IN THE 40S...L50S IN THE CITIES..MU30S IN
THE HIGHLANDS.

MID ALTC RMNS IN BTWN SYSTEMS WED. CLDS WL LKLY BE ON THE INCRS BY
AFTN AS THE NEXT LOW PRES AREA OVR THE GULF STATES BECOMES BETTER
ORGANIZED. HIGHS WL BE NEAR CLIMO NORMS FOR THE END OF APR W/
HIGHS A70.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

ALTHOUGH SUBSTANTIALLY LESS POTENT A SYSTEM THAN THE 00Z RUN AT THIS
TIME THE PREV NIGHT...THE RECENT RUN OF THE GFS STILL FAVORS A
RELATIVELY STRONGER CLOSED LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OVER THE
AREA TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. THE DYNAMICS OF THIS FEATURE ARE
LESS IMPACTFUL SINCE IT DOES NOT SYNC-UP W/ THE SRN STREAM MOISTURE
THAT IT HAD EARLIER RUNS. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ARE CLOSER IN
SOLUTIONS NOW...W/ BETTER CONVERGENCE ON HANDLING THE MOISTURE OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH - THE INITIAL WAVE THAT HAD BEEN PULLED NWD IN
EARLIER RUNS BUT NOW BARELY CROSSING INTO SRN VA LATE WED/EARLY THU.
HOWEVER...AS A BULK OF THIS FEATURE MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST...AN UPPER VORT THAT THE EURO CONTINUES TO SHOW AS A WEAKER
FEATURE - BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM.
A SOMEWHAT BRIEF CONNECTION IS THEN MADE BETWEEN THE TWO AND SOME
SCATTERED BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON THU. THIS
WOULD ALSO KEEP COOLER TEMPS AND CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY.

STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE ALREADY OFFSHORE LOW...THE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL INTENSIFYING BUT WELL OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. WINDS
WILL PICK UP QUICKLY BUT MAINLY OFF THE DELMARVA WATERS...TAPERING
OFF TOWARD THE MID ATLC COASTAL ZONES. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY
LINGER INTO FRI BUT DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL BE WRAPPED BACK DOWN
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE ITS SLOW/STEADY PACE AWAY FROM THE COAST AND KEEP THE TRACK
OF NW FLOW PULLING-IN SUBSEQUENT UPPER VORTS...ATTEMPTING TO SLIDE
THEM OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. NEAR ZONAL UPPER FLOW HOWEVER
WILL QUICKLY PUSH FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...PUSHING
AN IN-SITU UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA THIS SAT & SUN - BRINGING BACK
A DECENT WARM-UP. HIGHS INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK ARE
EXPECTED TO SLIDE BACK ABOVE AVG...W/ THE POTENTIAL FOR U70S/L80S
SUN AND ESPEC ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

VFR CONDS XPCTD TDA THRU WED. NWRLY GUSTS TO A20 KTS AT BWI/DCA/
MTN THRU MID AFTN. NO PROBS XPCTD TNGT OR WED.

BETTER CONFIDENCE THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FROM THU INTO
FRI. MAINLY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME LOW-END
NW BREEZES. POSSIBLE MVFR OR LOWER CONDS AT PEAK ON THU. CONDS
IMPROVING FRI INTO WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...

SCA HAS BEEN XTND THRU ERLY AFTN FOR THE UPR PTMC. FOR THE LWR
PTMC/BAY IT WL BE IN EFFECT THRU 4 PM. NO PROBS XPCTD TNGT OR WED.

A POTENT LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS
WEEK...BUT MAINLY WELL OFFSHORE W/ LESSER EFFECTS BACK TOWARD THE MD
CHES BAY AND TP RVR. PERIODIC SCA GUSTS FROM LATE WED INTO
THU...THEN AGAIN ON FRI AND SAT AFTNS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/GMS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 280753
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
353 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
IMPACT THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

W.V. IMGRY SHOWS THE UPR TROF IS MOVG THRU THE MID ATLC - PRSNTLY
BRINGING 050-100 FT CLDS ACROSS THE NRN 1/3 OF THE AREA. THESE WL
BE TRACKING S THRU THE RMNDR OF THE OVRNGT HRS.

HIGH PRES OVR THE UPR MIDWEST WL BE BLDG INTO THE FCST AREA TDA.
SKIES SHOULD BE P SUN...CLRG LATE THIS AFTN. HIGH TEMPS WL MAINLY
BE IN THE M60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

LOW PRES WHICH HAS BEEN SPINNING IN THE GULF OF ME FOR THE PAST 2
DAYS WL BE MOVG VERY SLOWLY FURTHER OUT TO SEA AS HIGH PRES MOVES
CLOSER TO THE E CST. THIS WL PROVIDE A MAINLY CLR OVRNGT. MAJORITY
OF THE FCST WL SEE LOWS IN THE 40S...L50S IN THE CITIES..MU30S IN
THE HIGHLANDS.

MID ALTC RMNS IN BTWN SYSTEMS WED. CLDS WL LKLY BE ON THE INCRS BY
AFTN AS THE NEXT LOW PRES AREA OVR THE GULF STATES BECOMES BETTER
ORGANIZED. HIGHS WL BE NEAR CLIMO NORMS FOR THE END OF APR W/
HIGHS A70.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

ALTHOUGH SUBSTANTIALLY LESS POTENT A SYSTEM THAN THE 00Z RUN AT THIS
TIME THE PREV NIGHT...THE RECENT RUN OF THE GFS STILL FAVORS A
RELATIVELY STRONGER CLOSED LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OVER THE
AREA TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. THE DYNAMICS OF THIS FEATURE ARE
LESS IMPACTFUL SINCE IT DOES NOT SYNC-UP W/ THE SRN STREAM MOISTURE
THAT IT HAD EARLIER RUNS. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ARE CLOSER IN
SOLUTIONS NOW...W/ BETTER CONVERGENCE ON HANDLING THE MOISTURE OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH - THE INITIAL WAVE THAT HAD BEEN PULLED NWD IN
EARLIER RUNS BUT NOW BARELY CROSSING INTO SRN VA LATE WED/EARLY THU.
HOWEVER...AS A BULK OF THIS FEATURE MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST...AN UPPER VORT THAT THE EURO CONTINUES TO SHOW AS A WEAKER
FEATURE - BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM.
A SOMEWHAT BRIEF CONNECTION IS THEN MADE BETWEEN THE TWO AND SOME
SCATTERED BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON THU. THIS
WOULD ALSO KEEP COOLER TEMPS AND CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY.

STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE ALREADY OFFSHORE LOW...THE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL INTENSIFYING BUT WELL OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. WINDS
WILL PICK UP QUICKLY BUT MAINLY OFF THE DELMARVA WATERS...TAPERING
OFF TOWARD THE MID ATLC COASTAL ZONES. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY
LINGER INTO FRI BUT DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL BE WRAPPED BACK DOWN
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE ITS SLOW/STEADY PACE AWAY FROM THE COAST AND KEEP THE TRACK
OF NW FLOW PULLING-IN SUBSEQUENT UPPER VORTS...ATTEMPTING TO SLIDE
THEM OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. NEAR ZONAL UPPER FLOW HOWEVER
WILL QUICKLY PUSH FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...PUSHING
AN IN-SITU UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA THIS SAT & SUN - BRINGING BACK
A DECENT WARM-UP. HIGHS INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK ARE
EXPECTED TO SLIDE BACK ABOVE AVG...W/ THE POTENTIAL FOR U70S/L80S
SUN AND ESPEC ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

VFR CONDS XPCTD TDA THRU WED. NWRLY GUSTS TO A20 KTS AT BWI/DCA/
MTN THRU MID AFTN. NO PROBS XPCTD TNGT OR WED.

BETTER CONFIDENCE THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FROM THU INTO
FRI. MAINLY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME LOW-END
NW BREEZES. POSSIBLE MVFR OR LOWER CONDS AT PEAK ON THU. CONDS
IMPROVING FRI INTO WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...

SCA HAS BEEN XTND THRU ERLY AFTN FOR THE UPR PTMC. FOR THE LWR
PTMC/BAY IT WL BE IN EFFECT THRU 4 PM. NO PROBS XPCTD TNGT OR WED.

A POTENT LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS
WEEK...BUT MAINLY WELL OFFSHORE W/ LESSER EFFECTS BACK TOWARD THE MD
CHES BAY AND TP RVR. PERIODIC SCA GUSTS FROM LATE WED INTO
THU...THEN AGAIN ON FRI AND SAT AFTNS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/GMS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 280753
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
353 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
IMPACT THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

W.V. IMGRY SHOWS THE UPR TROF IS MOVG THRU THE MID ATLC - PRSNTLY
BRINGING 050-100 FT CLDS ACROSS THE NRN 1/3 OF THE AREA. THESE WL
BE TRACKING S THRU THE RMNDR OF THE OVRNGT HRS.

HIGH PRES OVR THE UPR MIDWEST WL BE BLDG INTO THE FCST AREA TDA.
SKIES SHOULD BE P SUN...CLRG LATE THIS AFTN. HIGH TEMPS WL MAINLY
BE IN THE M60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

LOW PRES WHICH HAS BEEN SPINNING IN THE GULF OF ME FOR THE PAST 2
DAYS WL BE MOVG VERY SLOWLY FURTHER OUT TO SEA AS HIGH PRES MOVES
CLOSER TO THE E CST. THIS WL PROVIDE A MAINLY CLR OVRNGT. MAJORITY
OF THE FCST WL SEE LOWS IN THE 40S...L50S IN THE CITIES..MU30S IN
THE HIGHLANDS.

MID ALTC RMNS IN BTWN SYSTEMS WED. CLDS WL LKLY BE ON THE INCRS BY
AFTN AS THE NEXT LOW PRES AREA OVR THE GULF STATES BECOMES BETTER
ORGANIZED. HIGHS WL BE NEAR CLIMO NORMS FOR THE END OF APR W/
HIGHS A70.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

ALTHOUGH SUBSTANTIALLY LESS POTENT A SYSTEM THAN THE 00Z RUN AT THIS
TIME THE PREV NIGHT...THE RECENT RUN OF THE GFS STILL FAVORS A
RELATIVELY STRONGER CLOSED LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OVER THE
AREA TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. THE DYNAMICS OF THIS FEATURE ARE
LESS IMPACTFUL SINCE IT DOES NOT SYNC-UP W/ THE SRN STREAM MOISTURE
THAT IT HAD EARLIER RUNS. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ARE CLOSER IN
SOLUTIONS NOW...W/ BETTER CONVERGENCE ON HANDLING THE MOISTURE OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH - THE INITIAL WAVE THAT HAD BEEN PULLED NWD IN
EARLIER RUNS BUT NOW BARELY CROSSING INTO SRN VA LATE WED/EARLY THU.
HOWEVER...AS A BULK OF THIS FEATURE MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST...AN UPPER VORT THAT THE EURO CONTINUES TO SHOW AS A WEAKER
FEATURE - BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM.
A SOMEWHAT BRIEF CONNECTION IS THEN MADE BETWEEN THE TWO AND SOME
SCATTERED BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON THU. THIS
WOULD ALSO KEEP COOLER TEMPS AND CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY.

STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE ALREADY OFFSHORE LOW...THE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL INTENSIFYING BUT WELL OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. WINDS
WILL PICK UP QUICKLY BUT MAINLY OFF THE DELMARVA WATERS...TAPERING
OFF TOWARD THE MID ATLC COASTAL ZONES. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY
LINGER INTO FRI BUT DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL BE WRAPPED BACK DOWN
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE ITS SLOW/STEADY PACE AWAY FROM THE COAST AND KEEP THE TRACK
OF NW FLOW PULLING-IN SUBSEQUENT UPPER VORTS...ATTEMPTING TO SLIDE
THEM OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. NEAR ZONAL UPPER FLOW HOWEVER
WILL QUICKLY PUSH FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...PUSHING
AN IN-SITU UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA THIS SAT & SUN - BRINGING BACK
A DECENT WARM-UP. HIGHS INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK ARE
EXPECTED TO SLIDE BACK ABOVE AVG...W/ THE POTENTIAL FOR U70S/L80S
SUN AND ESPEC ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

VFR CONDS XPCTD TDA THRU WED. NWRLY GUSTS TO A20 KTS AT BWI/DCA/
MTN THRU MID AFTN. NO PROBS XPCTD TNGT OR WED.

BETTER CONFIDENCE THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FROM THU INTO
FRI. MAINLY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME LOW-END
NW BREEZES. POSSIBLE MVFR OR LOWER CONDS AT PEAK ON THU. CONDS
IMPROVING FRI INTO WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...

SCA HAS BEEN XTND THRU ERLY AFTN FOR THE UPR PTMC. FOR THE LWR
PTMC/BAY IT WL BE IN EFFECT THRU 4 PM. NO PROBS XPCTD TNGT OR WED.

A POTENT LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS
WEEK...BUT MAINLY WELL OFFSHORE W/ LESSER EFFECTS BACK TOWARD THE MD
CHES BAY AND TP RVR. PERIODIC SCA GUSTS FROM LATE WED INTO
THU...THEN AGAIN ON FRI AND SAT AFTNS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/GMS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 280753
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
353 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
IMPACT THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

W.V. IMGRY SHOWS THE UPR TROF IS MOVG THRU THE MID ATLC - PRSNTLY
BRINGING 050-100 FT CLDS ACROSS THE NRN 1/3 OF THE AREA. THESE WL
BE TRACKING S THRU THE RMNDR OF THE OVRNGT HRS.

HIGH PRES OVR THE UPR MIDWEST WL BE BLDG INTO THE FCST AREA TDA.
SKIES SHOULD BE P SUN...CLRG LATE THIS AFTN. HIGH TEMPS WL MAINLY
BE IN THE M60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

LOW PRES WHICH HAS BEEN SPINNING IN THE GULF OF ME FOR THE PAST 2
DAYS WL BE MOVG VERY SLOWLY FURTHER OUT TO SEA AS HIGH PRES MOVES
CLOSER TO THE E CST. THIS WL PROVIDE A MAINLY CLR OVRNGT. MAJORITY
OF THE FCST WL SEE LOWS IN THE 40S...L50S IN THE CITIES..MU30S IN
THE HIGHLANDS.

MID ALTC RMNS IN BTWN SYSTEMS WED. CLDS WL LKLY BE ON THE INCRS BY
AFTN AS THE NEXT LOW PRES AREA OVR THE GULF STATES BECOMES BETTER
ORGANIZED. HIGHS WL BE NEAR CLIMO NORMS FOR THE END OF APR W/
HIGHS A70.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

ALTHOUGH SUBSTANTIALLY LESS POTENT A SYSTEM THAN THE 00Z RUN AT THIS
TIME THE PREV NIGHT...THE RECENT RUN OF THE GFS STILL FAVORS A
RELATIVELY STRONGER CLOSED LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OVER THE
AREA TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. THE DYNAMICS OF THIS FEATURE ARE
LESS IMPACTFUL SINCE IT DOES NOT SYNC-UP W/ THE SRN STREAM MOISTURE
THAT IT HAD EARLIER RUNS. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ARE CLOSER IN
SOLUTIONS NOW...W/ BETTER CONVERGENCE ON HANDLING THE MOISTURE OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH - THE INITIAL WAVE THAT HAD BEEN PULLED NWD IN
EARLIER RUNS BUT NOW BARELY CROSSING INTO SRN VA LATE WED/EARLY THU.
HOWEVER...AS A BULK OF THIS FEATURE MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST...AN UPPER VORT THAT THE EURO CONTINUES TO SHOW AS A WEAKER
FEATURE - BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM.
A SOMEWHAT BRIEF CONNECTION IS THEN MADE BETWEEN THE TWO AND SOME
SCATTERED BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON THU. THIS
WOULD ALSO KEEP COOLER TEMPS AND CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY.

STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE ALREADY OFFSHORE LOW...THE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL INTENSIFYING BUT WELL OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. WINDS
WILL PICK UP QUICKLY BUT MAINLY OFF THE DELMARVA WATERS...TAPERING
OFF TOWARD THE MID ATLC COASTAL ZONES. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY
LINGER INTO FRI BUT DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL BE WRAPPED BACK DOWN
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE ITS SLOW/STEADY PACE AWAY FROM THE COAST AND KEEP THE TRACK
OF NW FLOW PULLING-IN SUBSEQUENT UPPER VORTS...ATTEMPTING TO SLIDE
THEM OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. NEAR ZONAL UPPER FLOW HOWEVER
WILL QUICKLY PUSH FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...PUSHING
AN IN-SITU UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA THIS SAT & SUN - BRINGING BACK
A DECENT WARM-UP. HIGHS INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK ARE
EXPECTED TO SLIDE BACK ABOVE AVG...W/ THE POTENTIAL FOR U70S/L80S
SUN AND ESPEC ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

VFR CONDS XPCTD TDA THRU WED. NWRLY GUSTS TO A20 KTS AT BWI/DCA/
MTN THRU MID AFTN. NO PROBS XPCTD TNGT OR WED.

BETTER CONFIDENCE THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FROM THU INTO
FRI. MAINLY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME LOW-END
NW BREEZES. POSSIBLE MVFR OR LOWER CONDS AT PEAK ON THU. CONDS
IMPROVING FRI INTO WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...

SCA HAS BEEN XTND THRU ERLY AFTN FOR THE UPR PTMC. FOR THE LWR
PTMC/BAY IT WL BE IN EFFECT THRU 4 PM. NO PROBS XPCTD TNGT OR WED.

A POTENT LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS
WEEK...BUT MAINLY WELL OFFSHORE W/ LESSER EFFECTS BACK TOWARD THE MD
CHES BAY AND TP RVR. PERIODIC SCA GUSTS FROM LATE WED INTO
THU...THEN AGAIN ON FRI AND SAT AFTNS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/GMS



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280624
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
224 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD. JUST SOME TWEAKING
OF THE CLOUDS AND AN UPDATE OF TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST GUIDANCE.

A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ENSUE TODAY ALLOWING FOR A DECREASE IN
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND EVENTUALLY CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL...BUT WILL MODIFY COMPARED TO
WHAT WAS IN PLACE ON MONDAY. WITH AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE AND THE
ABSENCE OF MONDAY`S COLD AIR...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEATHER REMAINS QUIET TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE THURSDAY AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT
ON WHERE AND WHEN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY. EXPECT MANY
CHANGES TO THURSDAY`S FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL DIFFERENCES AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES CONTINUE TO MAKE
THE EXTENDED A FORECAST CHALLENGE. MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON LOCATION AND EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF WHICH HAS
SHOWN BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS RIDGING TRANSITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT AND
NORTHWESTERLY.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH
THURSDAY LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280624
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
224 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD. JUST SOME TWEAKING
OF THE CLOUDS AND AN UPDATE OF TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST GUIDANCE.

A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ENSUE TODAY ALLOWING FOR A DECREASE IN
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND EVENTUALLY CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL...BUT WILL MODIFY COMPARED TO
WHAT WAS IN PLACE ON MONDAY. WITH AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE AND THE
ABSENCE OF MONDAY`S COLD AIR...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEATHER REMAINS QUIET TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE THURSDAY AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT
ON WHERE AND WHEN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY. EXPECT MANY
CHANGES TO THURSDAY`S FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL DIFFERENCES AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES CONTINUE TO MAKE
THE EXTENDED A FORECAST CHALLENGE. MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON LOCATION AND EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF WHICH HAS
SHOWN BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS RIDGING TRANSITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT AND
NORTHWESTERLY.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH
THURSDAY LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280624
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
224 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD. JUST SOME TWEAKING
OF THE CLOUDS AND AN UPDATE OF TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST GUIDANCE.

A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ENSUE TODAY ALLOWING FOR A DECREASE IN
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND EVENTUALLY CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL...BUT WILL MODIFY COMPARED TO
WHAT WAS IN PLACE ON MONDAY. WITH AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE AND THE
ABSENCE OF MONDAY`S COLD AIR...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEATHER REMAINS QUIET TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE THURSDAY AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT
ON WHERE AND WHEN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY. EXPECT MANY
CHANGES TO THURSDAY`S FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL DIFFERENCES AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES CONTINUE TO MAKE
THE EXTENDED A FORECAST CHALLENGE. MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON LOCATION AND EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF WHICH HAS
SHOWN BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS RIDGING TRANSITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT AND
NORTHWESTERLY.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH
THURSDAY LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280624
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
224 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD. JUST SOME TWEAKING
OF THE CLOUDS AND AN UPDATE OF TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST GUIDANCE.

A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ENSUE TODAY ALLOWING FOR A DECREASE IN
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND EVENTUALLY CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL...BUT WILL MODIFY COMPARED TO
WHAT WAS IN PLACE ON MONDAY. WITH AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE AND THE
ABSENCE OF MONDAY`S COLD AIR...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEATHER REMAINS QUIET TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE THURSDAY AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT
ON WHERE AND WHEN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY. EXPECT MANY
CHANGES TO THURSDAY`S FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL DIFFERENCES AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES CONTINUE TO MAKE
THE EXTENDED A FORECAST CHALLENGE. MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON LOCATION AND EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF WHICH HAS
SHOWN BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS RIDGING TRANSITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT AND
NORTHWESTERLY.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH
THURSDAY LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280624
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
224 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD. JUST SOME TWEAKING
OF THE CLOUDS AND AN UPDATE OF TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST GUIDANCE.

A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ENSUE TODAY ALLOWING FOR A DECREASE IN
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND EVENTUALLY CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL...BUT WILL MODIFY COMPARED TO
WHAT WAS IN PLACE ON MONDAY. WITH AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE AND THE
ABSENCE OF MONDAY`S COLD AIR...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEATHER REMAINS QUIET TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE THURSDAY AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT
ON WHERE AND WHEN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY. EXPECT MANY
CHANGES TO THURSDAY`S FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL DIFFERENCES AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES CONTINUE TO MAKE
THE EXTENDED A FORECAST CHALLENGE. MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON LOCATION AND EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF WHICH HAS
SHOWN BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS RIDGING TRANSITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT AND
NORTHWESTERLY.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH
THURSDAY LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280554
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
154 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FROM THE WEST LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
STRONG UPPER LOW ALOFT CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF MAINE...BUT
EXTENDING WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WV
SATELLITE REVEALS A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE DIVING SE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. CLOUD COVER IS BEGINNING TO
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH SOME LOCATIONS REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY. HOWEVER...ALL AREAS SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. A FEW VERY ISOLATED SPRINKLES MAY LINGER THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE THEREAFTER. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD
MAINLY BE 40-45F...A FEW UPPER 30S ARE POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR
VA...TO THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 F IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE NC COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
S/W WILL BE SHEARED OUT/SSE OF THE REGION ON TUE...SHOULD SEE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LESS AFTN CU DEVELOPMENT THAN MON. HIGHS
WILL GET A LITTLE WARMER...THOUGH REMAIN ABOUT 5 DEG BELOW
AVG...MID 60S NEAR THE COAST TO UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 F WELL
INLAND. SFC HI PRES THEN WEAKENS/DRIFT OFF THE CST INTO WED. LO
PRES EXITING SCNTRL CONUS TUE/TUE NGT BEGINS TO TRACK THROUGH THE
GULF CST STATES ON WED...BRINGING GRADUAL INCRS IN CLDNS/MOISTURE
INTO THE MID ATLC RGN. MDLS CONT TO HOLD OFF MOST OF ANY SGFNT
PCPN UNTIL LT WED. WILL MAINTAIN 30-50% POPS WED AFTN SW...DRY
NE. HI TEMPS WED FM THE M60S SW TO UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ELSW.
DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES IN FROM SSW TO NNE WED NIGHT...WITH BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF BRINGING WHAT LOOKS TO BE A GOOD OVERRUNNING EVENT
LATER WED NIGHT/THU MORNING TO AT LEAST THE SRN 1/2 OF THE CWA.
BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY SOUTH...HIGH CHC NORTH LATER WED NIGHT.
LOWS MAINLY FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. STRONG UPPER LOW NOW
PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SE STATES ON
THU...AS SFC LOW INTENSIFIES OFF THE NC COAST. BETTER AGREEMENT
BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF WARRANTS LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS THU...ALTHOUGH
NOT NECESSARILY GOING TO RAIN ALL DAY AS TRACK OF UPPER LOW WILL
MAKE UNCERTAINTY FAIRLY HIGH AS TO QPF AMOUNTS. COOLER/MAINLY
CLOUDY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LWR-MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW TRAVERSES THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT
THEN PUSHES WELL OUT TO SEA BY LATE FRIDAY. SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN PRIMARILY OVER EASTERN AREAS
FRIDAY MORNING/MIDDAY...BEFORE FINALLY ENDING LATE FRI AFTN OR EVE.
WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS (60%) MOST AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SOLID
CHC POPS (30-40%) ON FRIDAY. DRY WX THEN RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AND AN H5 RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S THU/FRI
NIGHTS...WARMING INTO MID/UPR 50S BY NEXT SUN/MON NIGHTS. HIGHS
FRIDAY FROM THE LOW 60S EASTERN SHORE TO THE UPR 60S FAR SW ZONES.
HIGH TEMPS WARM BY NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE 70S...WITH LOW 80S POSSIBLE
INLAND NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST TUESDAY.
DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA SHOULD KEEP THE SKY MOSTLY CLEAR.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY EVENING. A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BEGINNING
THURSDAY MORNING WITH A LIKELIHOOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND THE
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHRAS OVER SRN VA AND NC. RAIN AND MVFR/LCL
PERIODS OF IFR ARE FORECAST THU NGT BEFORE ENDING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
WIND SPEEDS TO THE LOCAL AREA BY THIS EVENING AND LASTING THRU TUES
MORNING. SCA`S REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ALL WATERS DURING THIS TIME.
WAVES WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT ON THE BAY TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING
TO 4-5 FT ON THE OCEAN. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TUE AFTN THRU WED NIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS IS LIKELY FOR ALL WATERS THU/FRI AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>634-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...MAM/DAP
MARINE...JDM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280554
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
154 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FROM THE WEST LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
STRONG UPPER LOW ALOFT CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF MAINE...BUT
EXTENDING WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WV
SATELLITE REVEALS A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE DIVING SE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. CLOUD COVER IS BEGINNING TO
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH SOME LOCATIONS REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY. HOWEVER...ALL AREAS SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. A FEW VERY ISOLATED SPRINKLES MAY LINGER THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE THEREAFTER. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD
MAINLY BE 40-45F...A FEW UPPER 30S ARE POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR
VA...TO THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 F IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE NC COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
S/W WILL BE SHEARED OUT/SSE OF THE REGION ON TUE...SHOULD SEE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LESS AFTN CU DEVELOPMENT THAN MON. HIGHS
WILL GET A LITTLE WARMER...THOUGH REMAIN ABOUT 5 DEG BELOW
AVG...MID 60S NEAR THE COAST TO UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 F WELL
INLAND. SFC HI PRES THEN WEAKENS/DRIFT OFF THE CST INTO WED. LO
PRES EXITING SCNTRL CONUS TUE/TUE NGT BEGINS TO TRACK THROUGH THE
GULF CST STATES ON WED...BRINGING GRADUAL INCRS IN CLDNS/MOISTURE
INTO THE MID ATLC RGN. MDLS CONT TO HOLD OFF MOST OF ANY SGFNT
PCPN UNTIL LT WED. WILL MAINTAIN 30-50% POPS WED AFTN SW...DRY
NE. HI TEMPS WED FM THE M60S SW TO UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ELSW.
DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES IN FROM SSW TO NNE WED NIGHT...WITH BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF BRINGING WHAT LOOKS TO BE A GOOD OVERRUNNING EVENT
LATER WED NIGHT/THU MORNING TO AT LEAST THE SRN 1/2 OF THE CWA.
BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY SOUTH...HIGH CHC NORTH LATER WED NIGHT.
LOWS MAINLY FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. STRONG UPPER LOW NOW
PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SE STATES ON
THU...AS SFC LOW INTENSIFIES OFF THE NC COAST. BETTER AGREEMENT
BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF WARRANTS LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS THU...ALTHOUGH
NOT NECESSARILY GOING TO RAIN ALL DAY AS TRACK OF UPPER LOW WILL
MAKE UNCERTAINTY FAIRLY HIGH AS TO QPF AMOUNTS. COOLER/MAINLY
CLOUDY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LWR-MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW TRAVERSES THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT
THEN PUSHES WELL OUT TO SEA BY LATE FRIDAY. SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN PRIMARILY OVER EASTERN AREAS
FRIDAY MORNING/MIDDAY...BEFORE FINALLY ENDING LATE FRI AFTN OR EVE.
WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS (60%) MOST AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SOLID
CHC POPS (30-40%) ON FRIDAY. DRY WX THEN RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AND AN H5 RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S THU/FRI
NIGHTS...WARMING INTO MID/UPR 50S BY NEXT SUN/MON NIGHTS. HIGHS
FRIDAY FROM THE LOW 60S EASTERN SHORE TO THE UPR 60S FAR SW ZONES.
HIGH TEMPS WARM BY NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE 70S...WITH LOW 80S POSSIBLE
INLAND NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST TUESDAY.
DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA SHOULD KEEP THE SKY MOSTLY CLEAR.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY EVENING. A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BEGINNING
THURSDAY MORNING WITH A LIKELIHOOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND THE
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHRAS OVER SRN VA AND NC. RAIN AND MVFR/LCL
PERIODS OF IFR ARE FORECAST THU NGT BEFORE ENDING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
WIND SPEEDS TO THE LOCAL AREA BY THIS EVENING AND LASTING THRU TUES
MORNING. SCA`S REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ALL WATERS DURING THIS TIME.
WAVES WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT ON THE BAY TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING
TO 4-5 FT ON THE OCEAN. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TUE AFTN THRU WED NIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS IS LIKELY FOR ALL WATERS THU/FRI AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>634-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...MAM/DAP
MARINE...JDM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280554
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
154 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FROM THE WEST LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
STRONG UPPER LOW ALOFT CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF MAINE...BUT
EXTENDING WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WV
SATELLITE REVEALS A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE DIVING SE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. CLOUD COVER IS BEGINNING TO
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH SOME LOCATIONS REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY. HOWEVER...ALL AREAS SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. A FEW VERY ISOLATED SPRINKLES MAY LINGER THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE THEREAFTER. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD
MAINLY BE 40-45F...A FEW UPPER 30S ARE POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR
VA...TO THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 F IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE NC COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
S/W WILL BE SHEARED OUT/SSE OF THE REGION ON TUE...SHOULD SEE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LESS AFTN CU DEVELOPMENT THAN MON. HIGHS
WILL GET A LITTLE WARMER...THOUGH REMAIN ABOUT 5 DEG BELOW
AVG...MID 60S NEAR THE COAST TO UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 F WELL
INLAND. SFC HI PRES THEN WEAKENS/DRIFT OFF THE CST INTO WED. LO
PRES EXITING SCNTRL CONUS TUE/TUE NGT BEGINS TO TRACK THROUGH THE
GULF CST STATES ON WED...BRINGING GRADUAL INCRS IN CLDNS/MOISTURE
INTO THE MID ATLC RGN. MDLS CONT TO HOLD OFF MOST OF ANY SGFNT
PCPN UNTIL LT WED. WILL MAINTAIN 30-50% POPS WED AFTN SW...DRY
NE. HI TEMPS WED FM THE M60S SW TO UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ELSW.
DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES IN FROM SSW TO NNE WED NIGHT...WITH BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF BRINGING WHAT LOOKS TO BE A GOOD OVERRUNNING EVENT
LATER WED NIGHT/THU MORNING TO AT LEAST THE SRN 1/2 OF THE CWA.
BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY SOUTH...HIGH CHC NORTH LATER WED NIGHT.
LOWS MAINLY FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. STRONG UPPER LOW NOW
PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SE STATES ON
THU...AS SFC LOW INTENSIFIES OFF THE NC COAST. BETTER AGREEMENT
BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF WARRANTS LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS THU...ALTHOUGH
NOT NECESSARILY GOING TO RAIN ALL DAY AS TRACK OF UPPER LOW WILL
MAKE UNCERTAINTY FAIRLY HIGH AS TO QPF AMOUNTS. COOLER/MAINLY
CLOUDY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LWR-MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW TRAVERSES THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT
THEN PUSHES WELL OUT TO SEA BY LATE FRIDAY. SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN PRIMARILY OVER EASTERN AREAS
FRIDAY MORNING/MIDDAY...BEFORE FINALLY ENDING LATE FRI AFTN OR EVE.
WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS (60%) MOST AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SOLID
CHC POPS (30-40%) ON FRIDAY. DRY WX THEN RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AND AN H5 RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S THU/FRI
NIGHTS...WARMING INTO MID/UPR 50S BY NEXT SUN/MON NIGHTS. HIGHS
FRIDAY FROM THE LOW 60S EASTERN SHORE TO THE UPR 60S FAR SW ZONES.
HIGH TEMPS WARM BY NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE 70S...WITH LOW 80S POSSIBLE
INLAND NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST TUESDAY.
DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA SHOULD KEEP THE SKY MOSTLY CLEAR.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY EVENING. A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BEGINNING
THURSDAY MORNING WITH A LIKELIHOOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND THE
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHRAS OVER SRN VA AND NC. RAIN AND MVFR/LCL
PERIODS OF IFR ARE FORECAST THU NGT BEFORE ENDING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
WIND SPEEDS TO THE LOCAL AREA BY THIS EVENING AND LASTING THRU TUES
MORNING. SCA`S REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ALL WATERS DURING THIS TIME.
WAVES WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT ON THE BAY TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING
TO 4-5 FT ON THE OCEAN. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TUE AFTN THRU WED NIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS IS LIKELY FOR ALL WATERS THU/FRI AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>634-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...MAM/DAP
MARINE...JDM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280554
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
154 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FROM THE WEST LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
STRONG UPPER LOW ALOFT CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF MAINE...BUT
EXTENDING WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WV
SATELLITE REVEALS A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE DIVING SE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. CLOUD COVER IS BEGINNING TO
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH SOME LOCATIONS REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY. HOWEVER...ALL AREAS SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. A FEW VERY ISOLATED SPRINKLES MAY LINGER THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE THEREAFTER. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD
MAINLY BE 40-45F...A FEW UPPER 30S ARE POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR
VA...TO THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 F IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE NC COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
S/W WILL BE SHEARED OUT/SSE OF THE REGION ON TUE...SHOULD SEE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LESS AFTN CU DEVELOPMENT THAN MON. HIGHS
WILL GET A LITTLE WARMER...THOUGH REMAIN ABOUT 5 DEG BELOW
AVG...MID 60S NEAR THE COAST TO UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 F WELL
INLAND. SFC HI PRES THEN WEAKENS/DRIFT OFF THE CST INTO WED. LO
PRES EXITING SCNTRL CONUS TUE/TUE NGT BEGINS TO TRACK THROUGH THE
GULF CST STATES ON WED...BRINGING GRADUAL INCRS IN CLDNS/MOISTURE
INTO THE MID ATLC RGN. MDLS CONT TO HOLD OFF MOST OF ANY SGFNT
PCPN UNTIL LT WED. WILL MAINTAIN 30-50% POPS WED AFTN SW...DRY
NE. HI TEMPS WED FM THE M60S SW TO UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ELSW.
DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES IN FROM SSW TO NNE WED NIGHT...WITH BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF BRINGING WHAT LOOKS TO BE A GOOD OVERRUNNING EVENT
LATER WED NIGHT/THU MORNING TO AT LEAST THE SRN 1/2 OF THE CWA.
BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY SOUTH...HIGH CHC NORTH LATER WED NIGHT.
LOWS MAINLY FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. STRONG UPPER LOW NOW
PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SE STATES ON
THU...AS SFC LOW INTENSIFIES OFF THE NC COAST. BETTER AGREEMENT
BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF WARRANTS LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS THU...ALTHOUGH
NOT NECESSARILY GOING TO RAIN ALL DAY AS TRACK OF UPPER LOW WILL
MAKE UNCERTAINTY FAIRLY HIGH AS TO QPF AMOUNTS. COOLER/MAINLY
CLOUDY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LWR-MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW TRAVERSES THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT
THEN PUSHES WELL OUT TO SEA BY LATE FRIDAY. SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN PRIMARILY OVER EASTERN AREAS
FRIDAY MORNING/MIDDAY...BEFORE FINALLY ENDING LATE FRI AFTN OR EVE.
WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS (60%) MOST AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SOLID
CHC POPS (30-40%) ON FRIDAY. DRY WX THEN RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AND AN H5 RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S THU/FRI
NIGHTS...WARMING INTO MID/UPR 50S BY NEXT SUN/MON NIGHTS. HIGHS
FRIDAY FROM THE LOW 60S EASTERN SHORE TO THE UPR 60S FAR SW ZONES.
HIGH TEMPS WARM BY NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE 70S...WITH LOW 80S POSSIBLE
INLAND NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST TUESDAY.
DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA SHOULD KEEP THE SKY MOSTLY CLEAR.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY EVENING. A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BEGINNING
THURSDAY MORNING WITH A LIKELIHOOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND THE
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHRAS OVER SRN VA AND NC. RAIN AND MVFR/LCL
PERIODS OF IFR ARE FORECAST THU NGT BEFORE ENDING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
WIND SPEEDS TO THE LOCAL AREA BY THIS EVENING AND LASTING THRU TUES
MORNING. SCA`S REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ALL WATERS DURING THIS TIME.
WAVES WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT ON THE BAY TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING
TO 4-5 FT ON THE OCEAN. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TUE AFTN THRU WED NIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS IS LIKELY FOR ALL WATERS THU/FRI AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>634-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...MAM/DAP
MARINE...JDM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280554
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
154 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FROM THE WEST LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
STRONG UPPER LOW ALOFT CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF MAINE...BUT
EXTENDING WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WV
SATELLITE REVEALS A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE DIVING SE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. CLOUD COVER IS BEGINNING TO
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH SOME LOCATIONS REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY. HOWEVER...ALL AREAS SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. A FEW VERY ISOLATED SPRINKLES MAY LINGER THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE THEREAFTER. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD
MAINLY BE 40-45F...A FEW UPPER 30S ARE POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR
VA...TO THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 F IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE NC COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
S/W WILL BE SHEARED OUT/SSE OF THE REGION ON TUE...SHOULD SEE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LESS AFTN CU DEVELOPMENT THAN MON. HIGHS
WILL GET A LITTLE WARMER...THOUGH REMAIN ABOUT 5 DEG BELOW
AVG...MID 60S NEAR THE COAST TO UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 F WELL
INLAND. SFC HI PRES THEN WEAKENS/DRIFT OFF THE CST INTO WED. LO
PRES EXITING SCNTRL CONUS TUE/TUE NGT BEGINS TO TRACK THROUGH THE
GULF CST STATES ON WED...BRINGING GRADUAL INCRS IN CLDNS/MOISTURE
INTO THE MID ATLC RGN. MDLS CONT TO HOLD OFF MOST OF ANY SGFNT
PCPN UNTIL LT WED. WILL MAINTAIN 30-50% POPS WED AFTN SW...DRY
NE. HI TEMPS WED FM THE M60S SW TO UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ELSW.
DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES IN FROM SSW TO NNE WED NIGHT...WITH BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF BRINGING WHAT LOOKS TO BE A GOOD OVERRUNNING EVENT
LATER WED NIGHT/THU MORNING TO AT LEAST THE SRN 1/2 OF THE CWA.
BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY SOUTH...HIGH CHC NORTH LATER WED NIGHT.
LOWS MAINLY FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. STRONG UPPER LOW NOW
PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SE STATES ON
THU...AS SFC LOW INTENSIFIES OFF THE NC COAST. BETTER AGREEMENT
BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF WARRANTS LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS THU...ALTHOUGH
NOT NECESSARILY GOING TO RAIN ALL DAY AS TRACK OF UPPER LOW WILL
MAKE UNCERTAINTY FAIRLY HIGH AS TO QPF AMOUNTS. COOLER/MAINLY
CLOUDY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LWR-MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW TRAVERSES THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT
THEN PUSHES WELL OUT TO SEA BY LATE FRIDAY. SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN PRIMARILY OVER EASTERN AREAS
FRIDAY MORNING/MIDDAY...BEFORE FINALLY ENDING LATE FRI AFTN OR EVE.
WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS (60%) MOST AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SOLID
CHC POPS (30-40%) ON FRIDAY. DRY WX THEN RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AND AN H5 RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S THU/FRI
NIGHTS...WARMING INTO MID/UPR 50S BY NEXT SUN/MON NIGHTS. HIGHS
FRIDAY FROM THE LOW 60S EASTERN SHORE TO THE UPR 60S FAR SW ZONES.
HIGH TEMPS WARM BY NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE 70S...WITH LOW 80S POSSIBLE
INLAND NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST TUESDAY.
DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA SHOULD KEEP THE SKY MOSTLY CLEAR.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY EVENING. A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BEGINNING
THURSDAY MORNING WITH A LIKELIHOOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND THE
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHRAS OVER SRN VA AND NC. RAIN AND MVFR/LCL
PERIODS OF IFR ARE FORECAST THU NGT BEFORE ENDING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
WIND SPEEDS TO THE LOCAL AREA BY THIS EVENING AND LASTING THRU TUES
MORNING. SCA`S REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ALL WATERS DURING THIS TIME.
WAVES WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT ON THE BAY TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING
TO 4-5 FT ON THE OCEAN. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TUE AFTN THRU WED NIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS IS LIKELY FOR ALL WATERS THU/FRI AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>634-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...MAM/DAP
MARINE...JDM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280554
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
154 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FROM THE WEST LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
STRONG UPPER LOW ALOFT CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF MAINE...BUT
EXTENDING WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WV
SATELLITE REVEALS A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE DIVING SE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. CLOUD COVER IS BEGINNING TO
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH SOME LOCATIONS REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY. HOWEVER...ALL AREAS SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. A FEW VERY ISOLATED SPRINKLES MAY LINGER THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE THEREAFTER. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD
MAINLY BE 40-45F...A FEW UPPER 30S ARE POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR
VA...TO THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 F IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE NC COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
S/W WILL BE SHEARED OUT/SSE OF THE REGION ON TUE...SHOULD SEE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LESS AFTN CU DEVELOPMENT THAN MON. HIGHS
WILL GET A LITTLE WARMER...THOUGH REMAIN ABOUT 5 DEG BELOW
AVG...MID 60S NEAR THE COAST TO UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 F WELL
INLAND. SFC HI PRES THEN WEAKENS/DRIFT OFF THE CST INTO WED. LO
PRES EXITING SCNTRL CONUS TUE/TUE NGT BEGINS TO TRACK THROUGH THE
GULF CST STATES ON WED...BRINGING GRADUAL INCRS IN CLDNS/MOISTURE
INTO THE MID ATLC RGN. MDLS CONT TO HOLD OFF MOST OF ANY SGFNT
PCPN UNTIL LT WED. WILL MAINTAIN 30-50% POPS WED AFTN SW...DRY
NE. HI TEMPS WED FM THE M60S SW TO UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ELSW.
DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES IN FROM SSW TO NNE WED NIGHT...WITH BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF BRINGING WHAT LOOKS TO BE A GOOD OVERRUNNING EVENT
LATER WED NIGHT/THU MORNING TO AT LEAST THE SRN 1/2 OF THE CWA.
BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY SOUTH...HIGH CHC NORTH LATER WED NIGHT.
LOWS MAINLY FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. STRONG UPPER LOW NOW
PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SE STATES ON
THU...AS SFC LOW INTENSIFIES OFF THE NC COAST. BETTER AGREEMENT
BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF WARRANTS LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS THU...ALTHOUGH
NOT NECESSARILY GOING TO RAIN ALL DAY AS TRACK OF UPPER LOW WILL
MAKE UNCERTAINTY FAIRLY HIGH AS TO QPF AMOUNTS. COOLER/MAINLY
CLOUDY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LWR-MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW TRAVERSES THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT
THEN PUSHES WELL OUT TO SEA BY LATE FRIDAY. SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN PRIMARILY OVER EASTERN AREAS
FRIDAY MORNING/MIDDAY...BEFORE FINALLY ENDING LATE FRI AFTN OR EVE.
WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS (60%) MOST AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SOLID
CHC POPS (30-40%) ON FRIDAY. DRY WX THEN RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AND AN H5 RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S THU/FRI
NIGHTS...WARMING INTO MID/UPR 50S BY NEXT SUN/MON NIGHTS. HIGHS
FRIDAY FROM THE LOW 60S EASTERN SHORE TO THE UPR 60S FAR SW ZONES.
HIGH TEMPS WARM BY NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE 70S...WITH LOW 80S POSSIBLE
INLAND NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST TUESDAY.
DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA SHOULD KEEP THE SKY MOSTLY CLEAR.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY EVENING. A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BEGINNING
THURSDAY MORNING WITH A LIKELIHOOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND THE
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHRAS OVER SRN VA AND NC. RAIN AND MVFR/LCL
PERIODS OF IFR ARE FORECAST THU NGT BEFORE ENDING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
WIND SPEEDS TO THE LOCAL AREA BY THIS EVENING AND LASTING THRU TUES
MORNING. SCA`S REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ALL WATERS DURING THIS TIME.
WAVES WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT ON THE BAY TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING
TO 4-5 FT ON THE OCEAN. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TUE AFTN THRU WED NIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS IS LIKELY FOR ALL WATERS THU/FRI AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>634-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...MAM/DAP
MARINE...JDM



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280527 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
127 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD. JUST SOME TWEAKING
OF THE CLOUDS AND AN UPDATE OF TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST GUIDANCE.

A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ENSUE TODAY ALLOWING FOR A DECREASE IN
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND EVENTUALLY CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL...BUT WILL MODIFY COMPARED TO
WHAT WAS IN PLACE ON MONDAY. WITH AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE AND THE
ABSENCE OF MONDAY`S COLD AIR...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEATHER REMAINS QUIET TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE THURSDAY AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT
ON WHERE AND WHEN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY. EXPECT MANY
CHANGES TO THURSDAY`S FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL DIFFERENCES AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES CONTINUE TO MAKE
THE EXTENDED A FORECAST CHALLENGE. MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON LOCATION AND EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF WHICH HAS
SHOWN BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. FKL/DUJ MAY
SEE LOWER MVFR CIGS AND SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT IN NW FLOW.
EXPECTING SCT-BKN CU DEVELOPMENT STARTING LATE MORNING
TUESDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS MAINTAINED. GUSTY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT CONTINUE TO BLOW AT
5-10 KNOTS THROUGH TUESDAY.  CL

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH
THURSDAY LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280527 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
127 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD. JUST SOME TWEAKING
OF THE CLOUDS AND AN UPDATE OF TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST GUIDANCE.

A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ENSUE TODAY ALLOWING FOR A DECREASE IN
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND EVENTUALLY CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL...BUT WILL MODIFY COMPARED TO
WHAT WAS IN PLACE ON MONDAY. WITH AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE AND THE
ABSENCE OF MONDAY`S COLD AIR...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEATHER REMAINS QUIET TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE THURSDAY AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT
ON WHERE AND WHEN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY. EXPECT MANY
CHANGES TO THURSDAY`S FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL DIFFERENCES AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES CONTINUE TO MAKE
THE EXTENDED A FORECAST CHALLENGE. MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON LOCATION AND EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF WHICH HAS
SHOWN BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. FKL/DUJ MAY
SEE LOWER MVFR CIGS AND SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT IN NW FLOW.
EXPECTING SCT-BKN CU DEVELOPMENT STARTING LATE MORNING
TUESDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS MAINTAINED. GUSTY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT CONTINUE TO BLOW AT
5-10 KNOTS THROUGH TUESDAY.  CL

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH
THURSDAY LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280527 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
127 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD. JUST SOME TWEAKING
OF THE CLOUDS AND AN UPDATE OF TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST GUIDANCE.

A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ENSUE TODAY ALLOWING FOR A DECREASE IN
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND EVENTUALLY CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL...BUT WILL MODIFY COMPARED TO
WHAT WAS IN PLACE ON MONDAY. WITH AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE AND THE
ABSENCE OF MONDAY`S COLD AIR...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEATHER REMAINS QUIET TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE THURSDAY AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT
ON WHERE AND WHEN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY. EXPECT MANY
CHANGES TO THURSDAY`S FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL DIFFERENCES AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES CONTINUE TO MAKE
THE EXTENDED A FORECAST CHALLENGE. MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON LOCATION AND EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF WHICH HAS
SHOWN BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. FKL/DUJ MAY
SEE LOWER MVFR CIGS AND SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT IN NW FLOW.
EXPECTING SCT-BKN CU DEVELOPMENT STARTING LATE MORNING
TUESDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS MAINTAINED. GUSTY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT CONTINUE TO BLOW AT
5-10 KNOTS THROUGH TUESDAY.  CL

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH
THURSDAY LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280527 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
127 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD. JUST SOME TWEAKING
OF THE CLOUDS AND AN UPDATE OF TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST GUIDANCE.

A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ENSUE TODAY ALLOWING FOR A DECREASE IN
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND EVENTUALLY CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL...BUT WILL MODIFY COMPARED TO
WHAT WAS IN PLACE ON MONDAY. WITH AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE AND THE
ABSENCE OF MONDAY`S COLD AIR...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEATHER REMAINS QUIET TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE THURSDAY AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT
ON WHERE AND WHEN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY. EXPECT MANY
CHANGES TO THURSDAY`S FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL DIFFERENCES AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES CONTINUE TO MAKE
THE EXTENDED A FORECAST CHALLENGE. MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON LOCATION AND EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF WHICH HAS
SHOWN BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. FKL/DUJ MAY
SEE LOWER MVFR CIGS AND SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT IN NW FLOW.
EXPECTING SCT-BKN CU DEVELOPMENT STARTING LATE MORNING
TUESDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS MAINTAINED. GUSTY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT CONTINUE TO BLOW AT
5-10 KNOTS THROUGH TUESDAY.  CL

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH
THURSDAY LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280527 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
127 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD. JUST SOME TWEAKING
OF THE CLOUDS AND AN UPDATE OF TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST GUIDANCE.

A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ENSUE TODAY ALLOWING FOR A DECREASE IN
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND EVENTUALLY CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL...BUT WILL MODIFY COMPARED TO
WHAT WAS IN PLACE ON MONDAY. WITH AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE AND THE
ABSENCE OF MONDAY`S COLD AIR...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEATHER REMAINS QUIET TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE THURSDAY AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT
ON WHERE AND WHEN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY. EXPECT MANY
CHANGES TO THURSDAY`S FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL DIFFERENCES AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES CONTINUE TO MAKE
THE EXTENDED A FORECAST CHALLENGE. MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON LOCATION AND EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF WHICH HAS
SHOWN BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. FKL/DUJ MAY
SEE LOWER MVFR CIGS AND SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT IN NW FLOW.
EXPECTING SCT-BKN CU DEVELOPMENT STARTING LATE MORNING
TUESDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS MAINTAINED. GUSTY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT CONTINUE TO BLOW AT
5-10 KNOTS THROUGH TUESDAY.  CL

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH
THURSDAY LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KLWX 280512
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
112 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN. LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE
REGION MIDWEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPPER LVL LOW REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THROUGH TONIGHT...EXTENDING BACK TO THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTH INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC. S/WV ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NLY FLOW HAS
RESULTED IN WDLY SCT SHRA. HWVR...LLVL AMS DRY...WHICH HAS
PRECLUDED MOST OF THIS MSTR FROM REACHING THE GROUND.

AM NOTING A DOWNWARD TREND NOW THAT SUNSET HAS OCCURRED. BELIEVE
THIS WILL CONTINUE...AND WILL RUN WITH A DRY FCST OVERNIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL BE A BIT MORE SUBSTANTIVE THO...THEN PART IN THE WAKE
OF THE VORT. IN TURN...THE CLDS WL KEEP TEMPS UP...WHICH IS
REFLECTED IN LAMP GDNC. GOING TEMP FCST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK. HV
MADE NO TEMP CHGS...WHICH MEANS DO NOT BELIEVE THERE WL BE MUCH OF
A FROST CONCERN IN THE CENTRAL SHEN VLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LVL LOW PIVOTS OFF TO THE EAST TUES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN AT THE SFC...KEEPING THE AREA DRY. SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL HELP TO CLEAR SKIES TUES
MORNING...BUT COULD SEE SCT CU BY TUES AFTN. DOWNSLOPING WINDS
UNDER THE SCT SKIES WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
LOWS TUES NIGHT STAY IN THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA...LIMITING
THE FROST CONCERN.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND BE REPLACED BY A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE APPALACHIANS. A SECOND AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AS IT PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN FL
AND MOVE OFFSHORE. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE DAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF
THE HIGHLANDS...THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL
FOOTHILLS. OTHERWISE DRY WX EXPECTED. RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGH OFFSHORE. TEMPS SHOULD BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOW 70S.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE MTNS WED NIGHT. THE LOW THAT WAS
OVER FL DURING THE DAY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AND STRENGTHEN. THERE
REMAINS SOME SPREAD AMONG MODELS ABOUT THE STRENGTH AND TRAJECTORY
OF THIS SYSTEM...AND THEREFORE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT TIMING AND LOCATION
OF RAINFALL ONSET OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE TIME BEING. LOWS FOR MOST AREAS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S...WITH LOW TO MID 50S LIKELY ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS RATHER LARGE WITH TRACK OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL OR EVEN MODEL CYCLE
YOU CHOOSE...OUR AREA COULD SEE ANYWHERE FROM A COUPLE OF INCHES
TO LESS THAN A HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. 00Z GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH TRACK...WITH THE LOW HUGGING THE COASTLINE AS IT MOVES TO OUR
EAST/NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...12Z GFS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH 00Z
ECMWF...AND KEEPS LOW FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE THAT OVERALL IMPACTS TO
OUR AREA ARE LESS. FOR NOW...LEANED MORE TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF/12Z
GFS SOLUTION DUE BETTER INITIALIZATIONS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
CLOSELY AS A SMALL CHANGE IN THE TRACK COULD SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE
IMPACTS FOR OUR AREA.

REGARDLESS OF WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS THIS WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO AND PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTS HV DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT.
WL HV NW FLOW THRU THE NGT WHICH WL CONT INTO TMRW. OCNL CIGS
BKN-OVC050.

PRIMARILY VFR WEDNESDAY. LIGHT NW WINDS IN THE MORNING
BECOME SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTN. PSBL SUB-VFR WITH POTENTIAL RAIN DVLPG
WED NIGHT. WINDS S-SW LESS THAN 10KT.

UNCERTAINTY REMAINS LARGE WITH TRACK AND IMPACT OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG COAST ON THU. THE MORE THE LOW HUGS THE
COAST...THE GREATER THE AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE.
REGARDLESS...WOULD EXPECT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN ANY SHOWERS THAT
OCCUR THU INTO FRI.

&&

.MARINE...

DUE TO GUSTS INXS OF 20KT ON THE CENTRAL PTMC HV XTND THE SCA TO
THE UPR 2/3 OF THE PTMC THRU 6 AM. THIS MAY NEED TO BE XTND INTO
THE DAYTIME HRS.

CONT THE SCA THRU THE DAY TUE. STILL BELIEVE THAT SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS BY TUES EVENING.

LIGHT NW WINDS ON THE WATERS WED MORNING...BECOMING S-SE 5-10KT BY
THE AFTN. NO ADVISORIES XPCTD. LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE INTO THE
ATLANTIC OFF THE FL COAST WED NIGHT AND STRENGTHEN AS IT BEGINS TO
MOVE TO THE NORTH. WINDS BECOME SW AROUND 10KT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SOME GUSTS UP TO 15KT. LIGHT RAIN PSBL.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE COAST THU INTO FRI HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE PERIODS OF SCA OR GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!




000
FXUS61 KLWX 280512
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
112 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN. LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE
REGION MIDWEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPPER LVL LOW REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THROUGH TONIGHT...EXTENDING BACK TO THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTH INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC. S/WV ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NLY FLOW HAS
RESULTED IN WDLY SCT SHRA. HWVR...LLVL AMS DRY...WHICH HAS
PRECLUDED MOST OF THIS MSTR FROM REACHING THE GROUND.

AM NOTING A DOWNWARD TREND NOW THAT SUNSET HAS OCCURRED. BELIEVE
THIS WILL CONTINUE...AND WILL RUN WITH A DRY FCST OVERNIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL BE A BIT MORE SUBSTANTIVE THO...THEN PART IN THE WAKE
OF THE VORT. IN TURN...THE CLDS WL KEEP TEMPS UP...WHICH IS
REFLECTED IN LAMP GDNC. GOING TEMP FCST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK. HV
MADE NO TEMP CHGS...WHICH MEANS DO NOT BELIEVE THERE WL BE MUCH OF
A FROST CONCERN IN THE CENTRAL SHEN VLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LVL LOW PIVOTS OFF TO THE EAST TUES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN AT THE SFC...KEEPING THE AREA DRY. SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL HELP TO CLEAR SKIES TUES
MORNING...BUT COULD SEE SCT CU BY TUES AFTN. DOWNSLOPING WINDS
UNDER THE SCT SKIES WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
LOWS TUES NIGHT STAY IN THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA...LIMITING
THE FROST CONCERN.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND BE REPLACED BY A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE APPALACHIANS. A SECOND AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AS IT PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN FL
AND MOVE OFFSHORE. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE DAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF
THE HIGHLANDS...THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL
FOOTHILLS. OTHERWISE DRY WX EXPECTED. RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGH OFFSHORE. TEMPS SHOULD BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOW 70S.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE MTNS WED NIGHT. THE LOW THAT WAS
OVER FL DURING THE DAY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AND STRENGTHEN. THERE
REMAINS SOME SPREAD AMONG MODELS ABOUT THE STRENGTH AND TRAJECTORY
OF THIS SYSTEM...AND THEREFORE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT TIMING AND LOCATION
OF RAINFALL ONSET OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE TIME BEING. LOWS FOR MOST AREAS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S...WITH LOW TO MID 50S LIKELY ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS RATHER LARGE WITH TRACK OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL OR EVEN MODEL CYCLE
YOU CHOOSE...OUR AREA COULD SEE ANYWHERE FROM A COUPLE OF INCHES
TO LESS THAN A HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. 00Z GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH TRACK...WITH THE LOW HUGGING THE COASTLINE AS IT MOVES TO OUR
EAST/NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...12Z GFS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH 00Z
ECMWF...AND KEEPS LOW FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE THAT OVERALL IMPACTS TO
OUR AREA ARE LESS. FOR NOW...LEANED MORE TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF/12Z
GFS SOLUTION DUE BETTER INITIALIZATIONS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
CLOSELY AS A SMALL CHANGE IN THE TRACK COULD SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE
IMPACTS FOR OUR AREA.

REGARDLESS OF WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS THIS WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO AND PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTS HV DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT.
WL HV NW FLOW THRU THE NGT WHICH WL CONT INTO TMRW. OCNL CIGS
BKN-OVC050.

PRIMARILY VFR WEDNESDAY. LIGHT NW WINDS IN THE MORNING
BECOME SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTN. PSBL SUB-VFR WITH POTENTIAL RAIN DVLPG
WED NIGHT. WINDS S-SW LESS THAN 10KT.

UNCERTAINTY REMAINS LARGE WITH TRACK AND IMPACT OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG COAST ON THU. THE MORE THE LOW HUGS THE
COAST...THE GREATER THE AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE.
REGARDLESS...WOULD EXPECT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN ANY SHOWERS THAT
OCCUR THU INTO FRI.

&&

.MARINE...

DUE TO GUSTS INXS OF 20KT ON THE CENTRAL PTMC HV XTND THE SCA TO
THE UPR 2/3 OF THE PTMC THRU 6 AM. THIS MAY NEED TO BE XTND INTO
THE DAYTIME HRS.

CONT THE SCA THRU THE DAY TUE. STILL BELIEVE THAT SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS BY TUES EVENING.

LIGHT NW WINDS ON THE WATERS WED MORNING...BECOMING S-SE 5-10KT BY
THE AFTN. NO ADVISORIES XPCTD. LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE INTO THE
ATLANTIC OFF THE FL COAST WED NIGHT AND STRENGTHEN AS IT BEGINS TO
MOVE TO THE NORTH. WINDS BECOME SW AROUND 10KT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SOME GUSTS UP TO 15KT. LIGHT RAIN PSBL.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE COAST THU INTO FRI HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE PERIODS OF SCA OR GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!




000
FXUS61 KLWX 280512
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
112 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN. LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE
REGION MIDWEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPPER LVL LOW REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THROUGH TONIGHT...EXTENDING BACK TO THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTH INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC. S/WV ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NLY FLOW HAS
RESULTED IN WDLY SCT SHRA. HWVR...LLVL AMS DRY...WHICH HAS
PRECLUDED MOST OF THIS MSTR FROM REACHING THE GROUND.

AM NOTING A DOWNWARD TREND NOW THAT SUNSET HAS OCCURRED. BELIEVE
THIS WILL CONTINUE...AND WILL RUN WITH A DRY FCST OVERNIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL BE A BIT MORE SUBSTANTIVE THO...THEN PART IN THE WAKE
OF THE VORT. IN TURN...THE CLDS WL KEEP TEMPS UP...WHICH IS
REFLECTED IN LAMP GDNC. GOING TEMP FCST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK. HV
MADE NO TEMP CHGS...WHICH MEANS DO NOT BELIEVE THERE WL BE MUCH OF
A FROST CONCERN IN THE CENTRAL SHEN VLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LVL LOW PIVOTS OFF TO THE EAST TUES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN AT THE SFC...KEEPING THE AREA DRY. SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL HELP TO CLEAR SKIES TUES
MORNING...BUT COULD SEE SCT CU BY TUES AFTN. DOWNSLOPING WINDS
UNDER THE SCT SKIES WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
LOWS TUES NIGHT STAY IN THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA...LIMITING
THE FROST CONCERN.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND BE REPLACED BY A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE APPALACHIANS. A SECOND AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AS IT PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN FL
AND MOVE OFFSHORE. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE DAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF
THE HIGHLANDS...THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL
FOOTHILLS. OTHERWISE DRY WX EXPECTED. RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGH OFFSHORE. TEMPS SHOULD BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOW 70S.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE MTNS WED NIGHT. THE LOW THAT WAS
OVER FL DURING THE DAY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AND STRENGTHEN. THERE
REMAINS SOME SPREAD AMONG MODELS ABOUT THE STRENGTH AND TRAJECTORY
OF THIS SYSTEM...AND THEREFORE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT TIMING AND LOCATION
OF RAINFALL ONSET OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE TIME BEING. LOWS FOR MOST AREAS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S...WITH LOW TO MID 50S LIKELY ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS RATHER LARGE WITH TRACK OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL OR EVEN MODEL CYCLE
YOU CHOOSE...OUR AREA COULD SEE ANYWHERE FROM A COUPLE OF INCHES
TO LESS THAN A HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. 00Z GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH TRACK...WITH THE LOW HUGGING THE COASTLINE AS IT MOVES TO OUR
EAST/NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...12Z GFS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH 00Z
ECMWF...AND KEEPS LOW FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE THAT OVERALL IMPACTS TO
OUR AREA ARE LESS. FOR NOW...LEANED MORE TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF/12Z
GFS SOLUTION DUE BETTER INITIALIZATIONS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
CLOSELY AS A SMALL CHANGE IN THE TRACK COULD SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE
IMPACTS FOR OUR AREA.

REGARDLESS OF WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS THIS WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO AND PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTS HV DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT.
WL HV NW FLOW THRU THE NGT WHICH WL CONT INTO TMRW. OCNL CIGS
BKN-OVC050.

PRIMARILY VFR WEDNESDAY. LIGHT NW WINDS IN THE MORNING
BECOME SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTN. PSBL SUB-VFR WITH POTENTIAL RAIN DVLPG
WED NIGHT. WINDS S-SW LESS THAN 10KT.

UNCERTAINTY REMAINS LARGE WITH TRACK AND IMPACT OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG COAST ON THU. THE MORE THE LOW HUGS THE
COAST...THE GREATER THE AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE.
REGARDLESS...WOULD EXPECT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN ANY SHOWERS THAT
OCCUR THU INTO FRI.

&&

.MARINE...

DUE TO GUSTS INXS OF 20KT ON THE CENTRAL PTMC HV XTND THE SCA TO
THE UPR 2/3 OF THE PTMC THRU 6 AM. THIS MAY NEED TO BE XTND INTO
THE DAYTIME HRS.

CONT THE SCA THRU THE DAY TUE. STILL BELIEVE THAT SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS BY TUES EVENING.

LIGHT NW WINDS ON THE WATERS WED MORNING...BECOMING S-SE 5-10KT BY
THE AFTN. NO ADVISORIES XPCTD. LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE INTO THE
ATLANTIC OFF THE FL COAST WED NIGHT AND STRENGTHEN AS IT BEGINS TO
MOVE TO THE NORTH. WINDS BECOME SW AROUND 10KT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SOME GUSTS UP TO 15KT. LIGHT RAIN PSBL.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE COAST THU INTO FRI HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE PERIODS OF SCA OR GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!




000
FXUS61 KLWX 280512
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
112 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN. LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE
REGION MIDWEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPPER LVL LOW REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THROUGH TONIGHT...EXTENDING BACK TO THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTH INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC. S/WV ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NLY FLOW HAS
RESULTED IN WDLY SCT SHRA. HWVR...LLVL AMS DRY...WHICH HAS
PRECLUDED MOST OF THIS MSTR FROM REACHING THE GROUND.

AM NOTING A DOWNWARD TREND NOW THAT SUNSET HAS OCCURRED. BELIEVE
THIS WILL CONTINUE...AND WILL RUN WITH A DRY FCST OVERNIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL BE A BIT MORE SUBSTANTIVE THO...THEN PART IN THE WAKE
OF THE VORT. IN TURN...THE CLDS WL KEEP TEMPS UP...WHICH IS
REFLECTED IN LAMP GDNC. GOING TEMP FCST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK. HV
MADE NO TEMP CHGS...WHICH MEANS DO NOT BELIEVE THERE WL BE MUCH OF
A FROST CONCERN IN THE CENTRAL SHEN VLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LVL LOW PIVOTS OFF TO THE EAST TUES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN AT THE SFC...KEEPING THE AREA DRY. SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL HELP TO CLEAR SKIES TUES
MORNING...BUT COULD SEE SCT CU BY TUES AFTN. DOWNSLOPING WINDS
UNDER THE SCT SKIES WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
LOWS TUES NIGHT STAY IN THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA...LIMITING
THE FROST CONCERN.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND BE REPLACED BY A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE APPALACHIANS. A SECOND AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AS IT PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN FL
AND MOVE OFFSHORE. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE DAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF
THE HIGHLANDS...THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL
FOOTHILLS. OTHERWISE DRY WX EXPECTED. RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGH OFFSHORE. TEMPS SHOULD BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOW 70S.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE MTNS WED NIGHT. THE LOW THAT WAS
OVER FL DURING THE DAY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AND STRENGTHEN. THERE
REMAINS SOME SPREAD AMONG MODELS ABOUT THE STRENGTH AND TRAJECTORY
OF THIS SYSTEM...AND THEREFORE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT TIMING AND LOCATION
OF RAINFALL ONSET OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE TIME BEING. LOWS FOR MOST AREAS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S...WITH LOW TO MID 50S LIKELY ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS RATHER LARGE WITH TRACK OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL OR EVEN MODEL CYCLE
YOU CHOOSE...OUR AREA COULD SEE ANYWHERE FROM A COUPLE OF INCHES
TO LESS THAN A HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. 00Z GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH TRACK...WITH THE LOW HUGGING THE COASTLINE AS IT MOVES TO OUR
EAST/NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...12Z GFS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH 00Z
ECMWF...AND KEEPS LOW FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE THAT OVERALL IMPACTS TO
OUR AREA ARE LESS. FOR NOW...LEANED MORE TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF/12Z
GFS SOLUTION DUE BETTER INITIALIZATIONS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
CLOSELY AS A SMALL CHANGE IN THE TRACK COULD SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE
IMPACTS FOR OUR AREA.

REGARDLESS OF WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS THIS WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO AND PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTS HV DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT.
WL HV NW FLOW THRU THE NGT WHICH WL CONT INTO TMRW. OCNL CIGS
BKN-OVC050.

PRIMARILY VFR WEDNESDAY. LIGHT NW WINDS IN THE MORNING
BECOME SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTN. PSBL SUB-VFR WITH POTENTIAL RAIN DVLPG
WED NIGHT. WINDS S-SW LESS THAN 10KT.

UNCERTAINTY REMAINS LARGE WITH TRACK AND IMPACT OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG COAST ON THU. THE MORE THE LOW HUGS THE
COAST...THE GREATER THE AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE.
REGARDLESS...WOULD EXPECT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN ANY SHOWERS THAT
OCCUR THU INTO FRI.

&&

.MARINE...

DUE TO GUSTS INXS OF 20KT ON THE CENTRAL PTMC HV XTND THE SCA TO
THE UPR 2/3 OF THE PTMC THRU 6 AM. THIS MAY NEED TO BE XTND INTO
THE DAYTIME HRS.

CONT THE SCA THRU THE DAY TUE. STILL BELIEVE THAT SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS BY TUES EVENING.

LIGHT NW WINDS ON THE WATERS WED MORNING...BECOMING S-SE 5-10KT BY
THE AFTN. NO ADVISORIES XPCTD. LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE INTO THE
ATLANTIC OFF THE FL COAST WED NIGHT AND STRENGTHEN AS IT BEGINS TO
MOVE TO THE NORTH. WINDS BECOME SW AROUND 10KT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SOME GUSTS UP TO 15KT. LIGHT RAIN PSBL.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE COAST THU INTO FRI HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE PERIODS OF SCA OR GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!




000
FXUS61 KLWX 280512
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
112 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN. LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE
REGION MIDWEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPPER LVL LOW REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THROUGH TONIGHT...EXTENDING BACK TO THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTH INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC. S/WV ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NLY FLOW HAS
RESULTED IN WDLY SCT SHRA. HWVR...LLVL AMS DRY...WHICH HAS
PRECLUDED MOST OF THIS MSTR FROM REACHING THE GROUND.

AM NOTING A DOWNWARD TREND NOW THAT SUNSET HAS OCCURRED. BELIEVE
THIS WILL CONTINUE...AND WILL RUN WITH A DRY FCST OVERNIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL BE A BIT MORE SUBSTANTIVE THO...THEN PART IN THE WAKE
OF THE VORT. IN TURN...THE CLDS WL KEEP TEMPS UP...WHICH IS
REFLECTED IN LAMP GDNC. GOING TEMP FCST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK. HV
MADE NO TEMP CHGS...WHICH MEANS DO NOT BELIEVE THERE WL BE MUCH OF
A FROST CONCERN IN THE CENTRAL SHEN VLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LVL LOW PIVOTS OFF TO THE EAST TUES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN AT THE SFC...KEEPING THE AREA DRY. SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL HELP TO CLEAR SKIES TUES
MORNING...BUT COULD SEE SCT CU BY TUES AFTN. DOWNSLOPING WINDS
UNDER THE SCT SKIES WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
LOWS TUES NIGHT STAY IN THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA...LIMITING
THE FROST CONCERN.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND BE REPLACED BY A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE APPALACHIANS. A SECOND AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AS IT PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN FL
AND MOVE OFFSHORE. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE DAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF
THE HIGHLANDS...THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL
FOOTHILLS. OTHERWISE DRY WX EXPECTED. RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGH OFFSHORE. TEMPS SHOULD BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOW 70S.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE MTNS WED NIGHT. THE LOW THAT WAS
OVER FL DURING THE DAY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AND STRENGTHEN. THERE
REMAINS SOME SPREAD AMONG MODELS ABOUT THE STRENGTH AND TRAJECTORY
OF THIS SYSTEM...AND THEREFORE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT TIMING AND LOCATION
OF RAINFALL ONSET OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE TIME BEING. LOWS FOR MOST AREAS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S...WITH LOW TO MID 50S LIKELY ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS RATHER LARGE WITH TRACK OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL OR EVEN MODEL CYCLE
YOU CHOOSE...OUR AREA COULD SEE ANYWHERE FROM A COUPLE OF INCHES
TO LESS THAN A HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. 00Z GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH TRACK...WITH THE LOW HUGGING THE COASTLINE AS IT MOVES TO OUR
EAST/NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...12Z GFS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH 00Z
ECMWF...AND KEEPS LOW FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE THAT OVERALL IMPACTS TO
OUR AREA ARE LESS. FOR NOW...LEANED MORE TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF/12Z
GFS SOLUTION DUE BETTER INITIALIZATIONS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
CLOSELY AS A SMALL CHANGE IN THE TRACK COULD SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE
IMPACTS FOR OUR AREA.

REGARDLESS OF WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS THIS WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO AND PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTS HV DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT.
WL HV NW FLOW THRU THE NGT WHICH WL CONT INTO TMRW. OCNL CIGS
BKN-OVC050.

PRIMARILY VFR WEDNESDAY. LIGHT NW WINDS IN THE MORNING
BECOME SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTN. PSBL SUB-VFR WITH POTENTIAL RAIN DVLPG
WED NIGHT. WINDS S-SW LESS THAN 10KT.

UNCERTAINTY REMAINS LARGE WITH TRACK AND IMPACT OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG COAST ON THU. THE MORE THE LOW HUGS THE
COAST...THE GREATER THE AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE.
REGARDLESS...WOULD EXPECT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN ANY SHOWERS THAT
OCCUR THU INTO FRI.

&&

.MARINE...

DUE TO GUSTS INXS OF 20KT ON THE CENTRAL PTMC HV XTND THE SCA TO
THE UPR 2/3 OF THE PTMC THRU 6 AM. THIS MAY NEED TO BE XTND INTO
THE DAYTIME HRS.

CONT THE SCA THRU THE DAY TUE. STILL BELIEVE THAT SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS BY TUES EVENING.

LIGHT NW WINDS ON THE WATERS WED MORNING...BECOMING S-SE 5-10KT BY
THE AFTN. NO ADVISORIES XPCTD. LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE INTO THE
ATLANTIC OFF THE FL COAST WED NIGHT AND STRENGTHEN AS IT BEGINS TO
MOVE TO THE NORTH. WINDS BECOME SW AROUND 10KT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SOME GUSTS UP TO 15KT. LIGHT RAIN PSBL.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE COAST THU INTO FRI HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE PERIODS OF SCA OR GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!



000
FXUS61 KLWX 280512
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
112 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN. LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE
REGION MIDWEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPPER LVL LOW REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THROUGH TONIGHT...EXTENDING BACK TO THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTH INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC. S/WV ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NLY FLOW HAS
RESULTED IN WDLY SCT SHRA. HWVR...LLVL AMS DRY...WHICH HAS
PRECLUDED MOST OF THIS MSTR FROM REACHING THE GROUND.

AM NOTING A DOWNWARD TREND NOW THAT SUNSET HAS OCCURRED. BELIEVE
THIS WILL CONTINUE...AND WILL RUN WITH A DRY FCST OVERNIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL BE A BIT MORE SUBSTANTIVE THO...THEN PART IN THE WAKE
OF THE VORT. IN TURN...THE CLDS WL KEEP TEMPS UP...WHICH IS
REFLECTED IN LAMP GDNC. GOING TEMP FCST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK. HV
MADE NO TEMP CHGS...WHICH MEANS DO NOT BELIEVE THERE WL BE MUCH OF
A FROST CONCERN IN THE CENTRAL SHEN VLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LVL LOW PIVOTS OFF TO THE EAST TUES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN AT THE SFC...KEEPING THE AREA DRY. SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL HELP TO CLEAR SKIES TUES
MORNING...BUT COULD SEE SCT CU BY TUES AFTN. DOWNSLOPING WINDS
UNDER THE SCT SKIES WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
LOWS TUES NIGHT STAY IN THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA...LIMITING
THE FROST CONCERN.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND BE REPLACED BY A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE APPALACHIANS. A SECOND AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AS IT PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN FL
AND MOVE OFFSHORE. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE DAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF
THE HIGHLANDS...THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL
FOOTHILLS. OTHERWISE DRY WX EXPECTED. RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGH OFFSHORE. TEMPS SHOULD BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOW 70S.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE MTNS WED NIGHT. THE LOW THAT WAS
OVER FL DURING THE DAY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AND STRENGTHEN. THERE
REMAINS SOME SPREAD AMONG MODELS ABOUT THE STRENGTH AND TRAJECTORY
OF THIS SYSTEM...AND THEREFORE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT TIMING AND LOCATION
OF RAINFALL ONSET OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE TIME BEING. LOWS FOR MOST AREAS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S...WITH LOW TO MID 50S LIKELY ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS RATHER LARGE WITH TRACK OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL OR EVEN MODEL CYCLE
YOU CHOOSE...OUR AREA COULD SEE ANYWHERE FROM A COUPLE OF INCHES
TO LESS THAN A HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. 00Z GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH TRACK...WITH THE LOW HUGGING THE COASTLINE AS IT MOVES TO OUR
EAST/NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...12Z GFS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH 00Z
ECMWF...AND KEEPS LOW FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE THAT OVERALL IMPACTS TO
OUR AREA ARE LESS. FOR NOW...LEANED MORE TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF/12Z
GFS SOLUTION DUE BETTER INITIALIZATIONS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
CLOSELY AS A SMALL CHANGE IN THE TRACK COULD SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE
IMPACTS FOR OUR AREA.

REGARDLESS OF WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS THIS WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO AND PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTS HV DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT.
WL HV NW FLOW THRU THE NGT WHICH WL CONT INTO TMRW. OCNL CIGS
BKN-OVC050.

PRIMARILY VFR WEDNESDAY. LIGHT NW WINDS IN THE MORNING
BECOME SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTN. PSBL SUB-VFR WITH POTENTIAL RAIN DVLPG
WED NIGHT. WINDS S-SW LESS THAN 10KT.

UNCERTAINTY REMAINS LARGE WITH TRACK AND IMPACT OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG COAST ON THU. THE MORE THE LOW HUGS THE
COAST...THE GREATER THE AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE.
REGARDLESS...WOULD EXPECT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN ANY SHOWERS THAT
OCCUR THU INTO FRI.

&&

.MARINE...

DUE TO GUSTS INXS OF 20KT ON THE CENTRAL PTMC HV XTND THE SCA TO
THE UPR 2/3 OF THE PTMC THRU 6 AM. THIS MAY NEED TO BE XTND INTO
THE DAYTIME HRS.

CONT THE SCA THRU THE DAY TUE. STILL BELIEVE THAT SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS BY TUES EVENING.

LIGHT NW WINDS ON THE WATERS WED MORNING...BECOMING S-SE 5-10KT BY
THE AFTN. NO ADVISORIES XPCTD. LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE INTO THE
ATLANTIC OFF THE FL COAST WED NIGHT AND STRENGTHEN AS IT BEGINS TO
MOVE TO THE NORTH. WINDS BECOME SW AROUND 10KT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SOME GUSTS UP TO 15KT. LIGHT RAIN PSBL.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE COAST THU INTO FRI HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE PERIODS OF SCA OR GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280218
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1018 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FROM THE WEST LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
STRONG UPPER LOW ALOFT CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF MAINE...BUT
EXTENDING WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WV
SATELLITE REVEALS A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE DIVING SE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. CLOUD COVER IS BEGINNING TO
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH SOME LOCATIONS REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY. HOWEVER...ALL AREAS SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. A FEW VERY ISOLATED SPRINKLES MAY LINGER THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE THEREAFTER. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD
MAINLY BE 40-45F...A FEW UPPER 30S ARE POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR
VA...TO THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 F IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE NC COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
S/W WILL BE SHEARED OUT/SSE OF THE REGION ON TUE...SHOULD SEE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LESS AFTN CU DEVELOPMENT THAN MON. HIGHS
WILL GET A LITTLE WARMER...THOUGH REMAIN ABOUT 5 DEG BELOW
AVG...MID 60S NEAR THE COAST TO UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 F WELL
INLAND. SFC HI PRES THEN WEAKENS/DRIFT OFF THE CST INTO WED. LO
PRES EXITING SCNTRL CONUS TUE/TUE NGT BEGINS TO TRACK THROUGH THE
GULF CST STATES ON WED...BRINGING GRADUAL INCRS IN CLDNS/MOISTURE
INTO THE MID ATLC RGN. MDLS CONT TO HOLD OFF MOST OF ANY SGFNT
PCPN UNTIL LT WED. WILL MAINTAIN 30-50% POPS WED AFTN SW...DRY
NE. HI TEMPS WED FM THE M60S SW TO UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ELSW.
DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES IN FROM SSW TO NNE WED NIGHT...WITH BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF BRINGING WHAT LOOKS TO BE A GOOD OVERRUNNING EVENT
LATER WED NIGHT/THU MORNING TO AT LEAST THE SRN 1/2 OF THE CWA.
BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY SOUTH...HIGH CHC NORTH LATER WED NIGHT.
LOWS MAINLY FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. STRONG UPPER LOW NOW
PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SE STATES ON
THU...AS SFC LOW INTENSIFIES OFF THE NC COAST. BETTER AGREEMENT
BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF WARRANTS LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS THU...ALTHOUGH
NOT NECESSARILY GOING TO RAIN ALL DAY AS TRACK OF UPPER LOW WILL
MAKE UNCERTAINTY FAIRLY HIGH AS TO QPF AMOUNTS. COOLER/MAINLY
CLOUDY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LWR-MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW TRAVERSES THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT
THEN PUSHES WELL OUT TO SEA BY LATE FRIDAY. SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN PRIMARILY OVER EASTERN AREAS
FRIDAY MORNING/MIDDAY...BEFORE FINALLY ENDING LATE FRI AFTN OR EVE.
WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS (60%) MOST AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SOLID
CHC POPS (30-40%) ON FRIDAY. DRY WX THEN RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AND AN H5 RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S THU/FRI
NIGHTS...WARMING INTO MID/UPR 50S BY NEXT SUN/MON NIGHTS. HIGHS
FRIDAY FROM THE LOW 60S EASTERN SHORE TO THE UPR 60S FAR SW ZONES.
HIGH TEMPS WARM BY NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE 70S...WITH LOW 80S POSSIBLE
INLAND NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST TUESDAY.
DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA SHOULD KEEP THE SKY MOSTLY CLEAR.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS. A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
A LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN OVER SRN VA AND NC. RAIN IS FORECAST TO END
ON FRIDAY. PERIODS OF IFR WILL BE PSBL DURING THIS EVENT.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
WIND SPEEDS TO THE LOCAL AREA BY THIS EVENING AND LASTING THRU TUES
MORNING. SCA`S REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ALL WATERS DURING THIS TIME.
WAVES WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT ON THE BAY TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING
TO 4-5 FT ON THE OCEAN. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TUE AFTN THRU WED NIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS IS LIKELY FOR ALL WATERS THU/FRI AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ633-650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/AJZ
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...JDM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280218
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1018 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FROM THE WEST LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
STRONG UPPER LOW ALOFT CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF MAINE...BUT
EXTENDING WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WV
SATELLITE REVEALS A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE DIVING SE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. CLOUD COVER IS BEGINNING TO
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH SOME LOCATIONS REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY. HOWEVER...ALL AREAS SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. A FEW VERY ISOLATED SPRINKLES MAY LINGER THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE THEREAFTER. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD
MAINLY BE 40-45F...A FEW UPPER 30S ARE POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR
VA...TO THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 F IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE NC COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
S/W WILL BE SHEARED OUT/SSE OF THE REGION ON TUE...SHOULD SEE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LESS AFTN CU DEVELOPMENT THAN MON. HIGHS
WILL GET A LITTLE WARMER...THOUGH REMAIN ABOUT 5 DEG BELOW
AVG...MID 60S NEAR THE COAST TO UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 F WELL
INLAND. SFC HI PRES THEN WEAKENS/DRIFT OFF THE CST INTO WED. LO
PRES EXITING SCNTRL CONUS TUE/TUE NGT BEGINS TO TRACK THROUGH THE
GULF CST STATES ON WED...BRINGING GRADUAL INCRS IN CLDNS/MOISTURE
INTO THE MID ATLC RGN. MDLS CONT TO HOLD OFF MOST OF ANY SGFNT
PCPN UNTIL LT WED. WILL MAINTAIN 30-50% POPS WED AFTN SW...DRY
NE. HI TEMPS WED FM THE M60S SW TO UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ELSW.
DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES IN FROM SSW TO NNE WED NIGHT...WITH BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF BRINGING WHAT LOOKS TO BE A GOOD OVERRUNNING EVENT
LATER WED NIGHT/THU MORNING TO AT LEAST THE SRN 1/2 OF THE CWA.
BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY SOUTH...HIGH CHC NORTH LATER WED NIGHT.
LOWS MAINLY FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. STRONG UPPER LOW NOW
PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SE STATES ON
THU...AS SFC LOW INTENSIFIES OFF THE NC COAST. BETTER AGREEMENT
BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF WARRANTS LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS THU...ALTHOUGH
NOT NECESSARILY GOING TO RAIN ALL DAY AS TRACK OF UPPER LOW WILL
MAKE UNCERTAINTY FAIRLY HIGH AS TO QPF AMOUNTS. COOLER/MAINLY
CLOUDY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LWR-MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW TRAVERSES THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT
THEN PUSHES WELL OUT TO SEA BY LATE FRIDAY. SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN PRIMARILY OVER EASTERN AREAS
FRIDAY MORNING/MIDDAY...BEFORE FINALLY ENDING LATE FRI AFTN OR EVE.
WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS (60%) MOST AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SOLID
CHC POPS (30-40%) ON FRIDAY. DRY WX THEN RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AND AN H5 RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S THU/FRI
NIGHTS...WARMING INTO MID/UPR 50S BY NEXT SUN/MON NIGHTS. HIGHS
FRIDAY FROM THE LOW 60S EASTERN SHORE TO THE UPR 60S FAR SW ZONES.
HIGH TEMPS WARM BY NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE 70S...WITH LOW 80S POSSIBLE
INLAND NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST TUESDAY.
DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA SHOULD KEEP THE SKY MOSTLY CLEAR.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS. A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
A LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN OVER SRN VA AND NC. RAIN IS FORECAST TO END
ON FRIDAY. PERIODS OF IFR WILL BE PSBL DURING THIS EVENT.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
WIND SPEEDS TO THE LOCAL AREA BY THIS EVENING AND LASTING THRU TUES
MORNING. SCA`S REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ALL WATERS DURING THIS TIME.
WAVES WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT ON THE BAY TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING
TO 4-5 FT ON THE OCEAN. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TUE AFTN THRU WED NIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS IS LIKELY FOR ALL WATERS THU/FRI AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ633-650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/AJZ
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...JDM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280218
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1018 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FROM THE WEST LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
STRONG UPPER LOW ALOFT CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF MAINE...BUT
EXTENDING WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WV
SATELLITE REVEALS A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE DIVING SE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. CLOUD COVER IS BEGINNING TO
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH SOME LOCATIONS REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY. HOWEVER...ALL AREAS SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. A FEW VERY ISOLATED SPRINKLES MAY LINGER THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE THEREAFTER. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD
MAINLY BE 40-45F...A FEW UPPER 30S ARE POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR
VA...TO THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 F IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE NC COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
S/W WILL BE SHEARED OUT/SSE OF THE REGION ON TUE...SHOULD SEE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LESS AFTN CU DEVELOPMENT THAN MON. HIGHS
WILL GET A LITTLE WARMER...THOUGH REMAIN ABOUT 5 DEG BELOW
AVG...MID 60S NEAR THE COAST TO UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 F WELL
INLAND. SFC HI PRES THEN WEAKENS/DRIFT OFF THE CST INTO WED. LO
PRES EXITING SCNTRL CONUS TUE/TUE NGT BEGINS TO TRACK THROUGH THE
GULF CST STATES ON WED...BRINGING GRADUAL INCRS IN CLDNS/MOISTURE
INTO THE MID ATLC RGN. MDLS CONT TO HOLD OFF MOST OF ANY SGFNT
PCPN UNTIL LT WED. WILL MAINTAIN 30-50% POPS WED AFTN SW...DRY
NE. HI TEMPS WED FM THE M60S SW TO UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ELSW.
DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES IN FROM SSW TO NNE WED NIGHT...WITH BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF BRINGING WHAT LOOKS TO BE A GOOD OVERRUNNING EVENT
LATER WED NIGHT/THU MORNING TO AT LEAST THE SRN 1/2 OF THE CWA.
BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY SOUTH...HIGH CHC NORTH LATER WED NIGHT.
LOWS MAINLY FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. STRONG UPPER LOW NOW
PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SE STATES ON
THU...AS SFC LOW INTENSIFIES OFF THE NC COAST. BETTER AGREEMENT
BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF WARRANTS LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS THU...ALTHOUGH
NOT NECESSARILY GOING TO RAIN ALL DAY AS TRACK OF UPPER LOW WILL
MAKE UNCERTAINTY FAIRLY HIGH AS TO QPF AMOUNTS. COOLER/MAINLY
CLOUDY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LWR-MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW TRAVERSES THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT
THEN PUSHES WELL OUT TO SEA BY LATE FRIDAY. SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN PRIMARILY OVER EASTERN AREAS
FRIDAY MORNING/MIDDAY...BEFORE FINALLY ENDING LATE FRI AFTN OR EVE.
WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS (60%) MOST AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SOLID
CHC POPS (30-40%) ON FRIDAY. DRY WX THEN RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AND AN H5 RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S THU/FRI
NIGHTS...WARMING INTO MID/UPR 50S BY NEXT SUN/MON NIGHTS. HIGHS
FRIDAY FROM THE LOW 60S EASTERN SHORE TO THE UPR 60S FAR SW ZONES.
HIGH TEMPS WARM BY NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE 70S...WITH LOW 80S POSSIBLE
INLAND NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST TUESDAY.
DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA SHOULD KEEP THE SKY MOSTLY CLEAR.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS. A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
A LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN OVER SRN VA AND NC. RAIN IS FORECAST TO END
ON FRIDAY. PERIODS OF IFR WILL BE PSBL DURING THIS EVENT.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
WIND SPEEDS TO THE LOCAL AREA BY THIS EVENING AND LASTING THRU TUES
MORNING. SCA`S REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ALL WATERS DURING THIS TIME.
WAVES WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT ON THE BAY TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING
TO 4-5 FT ON THE OCEAN. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TUE AFTN THRU WED NIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS IS LIKELY FOR ALL WATERS THU/FRI AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ633-650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/AJZ
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...JDM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280218
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1018 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FROM THE WEST LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
STRONG UPPER LOW ALOFT CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF MAINE...BUT
EXTENDING WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WV
SATELLITE REVEALS A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE DIVING SE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. CLOUD COVER IS BEGINNING TO
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH SOME LOCATIONS REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY. HOWEVER...ALL AREAS SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. A FEW VERY ISOLATED SPRINKLES MAY LINGER THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE THEREAFTER. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD
MAINLY BE 40-45F...A FEW UPPER 30S ARE POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR
VA...TO THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 F IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE NC COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
S/W WILL BE SHEARED OUT/SSE OF THE REGION ON TUE...SHOULD SEE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LESS AFTN CU DEVELOPMENT THAN MON. HIGHS
WILL GET A LITTLE WARMER...THOUGH REMAIN ABOUT 5 DEG BELOW
AVG...MID 60S NEAR THE COAST TO UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 F WELL
INLAND. SFC HI PRES THEN WEAKENS/DRIFT OFF THE CST INTO WED. LO
PRES EXITING SCNTRL CONUS TUE/TUE NGT BEGINS TO TRACK THROUGH THE
GULF CST STATES ON WED...BRINGING GRADUAL INCRS IN CLDNS/MOISTURE
INTO THE MID ATLC RGN. MDLS CONT TO HOLD OFF MOST OF ANY SGFNT
PCPN UNTIL LT WED. WILL MAINTAIN 30-50% POPS WED AFTN SW...DRY
NE. HI TEMPS WED FM THE M60S SW TO UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ELSW.
DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES IN FROM SSW TO NNE WED NIGHT...WITH BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF BRINGING WHAT LOOKS TO BE A GOOD OVERRUNNING EVENT
LATER WED NIGHT/THU MORNING TO AT LEAST THE SRN 1/2 OF THE CWA.
BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY SOUTH...HIGH CHC NORTH LATER WED NIGHT.
LOWS MAINLY FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. STRONG UPPER LOW NOW
PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SE STATES ON
THU...AS SFC LOW INTENSIFIES OFF THE NC COAST. BETTER AGREEMENT
BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF WARRANTS LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS THU...ALTHOUGH
NOT NECESSARILY GOING TO RAIN ALL DAY AS TRACK OF UPPER LOW WILL
MAKE UNCERTAINTY FAIRLY HIGH AS TO QPF AMOUNTS. COOLER/MAINLY
CLOUDY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LWR-MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW TRAVERSES THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT
THEN PUSHES WELL OUT TO SEA BY LATE FRIDAY. SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN PRIMARILY OVER EASTERN AREAS
FRIDAY MORNING/MIDDAY...BEFORE FINALLY ENDING LATE FRI AFTN OR EVE.
WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS (60%) MOST AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SOLID
CHC POPS (30-40%) ON FRIDAY. DRY WX THEN RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AND AN H5 RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S THU/FRI
NIGHTS...WARMING INTO MID/UPR 50S BY NEXT SUN/MON NIGHTS. HIGHS
FRIDAY FROM THE LOW 60S EASTERN SHORE TO THE UPR 60S FAR SW ZONES.
HIGH TEMPS WARM BY NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE 70S...WITH LOW 80S POSSIBLE
INLAND NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST TUESDAY.
DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA SHOULD KEEP THE SKY MOSTLY CLEAR.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS. A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
A LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN OVER SRN VA AND NC. RAIN IS FORECAST TO END
ON FRIDAY. PERIODS OF IFR WILL BE PSBL DURING THIS EVENT.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
WIND SPEEDS TO THE LOCAL AREA BY THIS EVENING AND LASTING THRU TUES
MORNING. SCA`S REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ALL WATERS DURING THIS TIME.
WAVES WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT ON THE BAY TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING
TO 4-5 FT ON THE OCEAN. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TUE AFTN THRU WED NIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS IS LIKELY FOR ALL WATERS THU/FRI AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ633-650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/AJZ
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...JDM



000
FXUS61 KPHI 280202
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1002 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AND COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OUT TO SEA. MEANWHILE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION GRADUALLY FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO PASS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES OUT TO
SEA ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO
BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE SHORT TERM GRIDS WITH THE LATE EVENING
UPDATE. HAVE PULLED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION AS
THE BETTER INSTABILITY/ENERGY REMAINS TO OUR WEST, THOUGH A BRIEF
SPRINKLE MAY OCCUR IN OUR EXTREME NORTHWESTERN ZONES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...OTHERWISE WE WILL REMAIN DRY. MID LEVELS REMAIN MOIST
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT EXTENSIVE CLOUDS UNTIL SUBSIDENCE BEGINS IN THE
WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
BY TOMORROW, THE LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC WILL BE NEARLY
VERTICALLY STACKED. OUR REGION WILL STAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
NORTHWESTERLY AND NORTHERLY FLOW AS THIS LOW SLOWLY SLIDES EAST
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THICKNESSES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY, THUS
EXPECT A MODEST WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
50S TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WE SHOULD REMAIN UNDER THE OUTER INFLUENCE OF A MID LEVEL LOW OFF
NOVA SCOTIA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AND IT IS FORECAST TO BE
OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD
BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE PERIOD.

A LONG WAVE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED TO BE OVER THE
EASTERN STATES FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST
TO DROP FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD AND
OFF THE COAST ON FRIDAY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA ON WEDNESDAY TO THE WATERS OFF CAPE HATTERAS ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL
GUIDANCE REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES
OUT TO SEA ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WHILE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER SEEMS LIKELY, THE NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH THE SYSTEM REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST. ALSO, AN AREA OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE MID LEVEL LOW. SOME REMNANT OF THAT
ACTIVITY MAY DRIFT TOWARD OUR REGION, AS WELL.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE SUGGESTING A DRY WEDGE POKING DOWN
INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT DUE TO THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW. ALSO, SUBSIDENCE
AROUND THE SYSTEM MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF
LESSENING PRECIPITATION AROUND ITS OUTER EDGE. AS A RESULT, WE
WILL KEEP OUR PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES MAINLY IN THE CHANCE
RANGE.

THE WIND FORECAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM REMAINS A BIT
UNCERTAIN, AS WELL. WHILE THE BACKING FROM AN EAST TO A NORTH WIND
FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY APPEARS LIKELY, THE SPEED FORECAST IS
DEPENDENT UPON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. WE HAVE GONE WITH
A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION FOR THE TIME BEING.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OVER THE WESTERN
NORTH ATLANTIC FOR THE WEEKEND. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY DROP
DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND SUNDAY. THE FEATURE IS ANTICIPATED
TO HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. A RIDGE FROM THE WEST
IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN STATES ON MONDAY.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY, THEN
THEY ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE
TO THE CLOUD COVER, EAST TO NORTH WIND AND POSSIBLE RAIN.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

NOT MUCH TO ADD TO THE PREVIOUS 18Z TAFS SO WE KEEP THE FORECAST
STATUS QUO FOR THE TIME BEING.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH
MOSTLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS BETWEEN 6000 AND 8000 FT AGL. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS (AROUND 2000 FT AGL) DEVELOPING
PRIMARILY WEST OF THE FALL LINE, INCLUDING KRDG AND KABE, BETWEEN
09 AND 15Z. HOWEVER, GIVEN HOW DRY THE AIR MASS IS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER, THINK THIS IS VERY UNLIKELY. MORE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
EXPECTED STARTING TOMORROW LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.
CONDITIONS MAY DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE AT TIMES. AN EAST TO
NORTHEAST WIND AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH ITS
POTENTIAL IMPACT ON OPERATIONS AT KPHL.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
EVENING, WITH WIND GUSTS AT OR JUST ABOVE 25KT. WIND GUSTS SHOULD
BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY MID TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE WIND SPEEDS
DECREASE, SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 5 FT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND FOR WAVES ON
OUR OCEAN WATERS IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET. THE WIND DIRECTION IS
ANTICIPATED TO BACK GRADUALLY FROM THE EAST TO THE NORTH. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS IF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OCEAN
TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERION. HOWEVER, WAVE HEIGHTS ON
OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY REMAIN AROUND OR ABOVE 5 FEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NORTH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING ABOVE 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 30
PERCENT ARE POSSIBLE PRIMARILY OVER NJ, SOUTHEASTERN PA (SOUTHEAST
OF THE POCONOS), AND EXTREME NORTHERN DELMARVA. SINCE CONDITIONS
WILL BE MARGINAL AT WORST, WILL WAIT FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE FULL
SUITE OF MODEL RUNS BEFORE MAKING A DECISION IF TO ISSUE AN SPS OR
RFW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/JOHNSON
MARINE...IOVINO/JOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...JOHNSON



000
FXUS61 KPHI 280202
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1002 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AND COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OUT TO SEA. MEANWHILE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION GRADUALLY FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO PASS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES OUT TO
SEA ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO
BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE SHORT TERM GRIDS WITH THE LATE EVENING
UPDATE. HAVE PULLED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION AS
THE BETTER INSTABILITY/ENERGY REMAINS TO OUR WEST, THOUGH A BRIEF
SPRINKLE MAY OCCUR IN OUR EXTREME NORTHWESTERN ZONES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...OTHERWISE WE WILL REMAIN DRY. MID LEVELS REMAIN MOIST
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT EXTENSIVE CLOUDS UNTIL SUBSIDENCE BEGINS IN THE
WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
BY TOMORROW, THE LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC WILL BE NEARLY
VERTICALLY STACKED. OUR REGION WILL STAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
NORTHWESTERLY AND NORTHERLY FLOW AS THIS LOW SLOWLY SLIDES EAST
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THICKNESSES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY, THUS
EXPECT A MODEST WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
50S TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WE SHOULD REMAIN UNDER THE OUTER INFLUENCE OF A MID LEVEL LOW OFF
NOVA SCOTIA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AND IT IS FORECAST TO BE
OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD
BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE PERIOD.

A LONG WAVE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED TO BE OVER THE
EASTERN STATES FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST
TO DROP FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD AND
OFF THE COAST ON FRIDAY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA ON WEDNESDAY TO THE WATERS OFF CAPE HATTERAS ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL
GUIDANCE REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES
OUT TO SEA ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WHILE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER SEEMS LIKELY, THE NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH THE SYSTEM REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST. ALSO, AN AREA OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE MID LEVEL LOW. SOME REMNANT OF THAT
ACTIVITY MAY DRIFT TOWARD OUR REGION, AS WELL.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE SUGGESTING A DRY WEDGE POKING DOWN
INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT DUE TO THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW. ALSO, SUBSIDENCE
AROUND THE SYSTEM MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF
LESSENING PRECIPITATION AROUND ITS OUTER EDGE. AS A RESULT, WE
WILL KEEP OUR PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES MAINLY IN THE CHANCE
RANGE.

THE WIND FORECAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM REMAINS A BIT
UNCERTAIN, AS WELL. WHILE THE BACKING FROM AN EAST TO A NORTH WIND
FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY APPEARS LIKELY, THE SPEED FORECAST IS
DEPENDENT UPON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. WE HAVE GONE WITH
A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION FOR THE TIME BEING.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OVER THE WESTERN
NORTH ATLANTIC FOR THE WEEKEND. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY DROP
DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND SUNDAY. THE FEATURE IS ANTICIPATED
TO HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. A RIDGE FROM THE WEST
IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN STATES ON MONDAY.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY, THEN
THEY ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE
TO THE CLOUD COVER, EAST TO NORTH WIND AND POSSIBLE RAIN.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

NOT MUCH TO ADD TO THE PREVIOUS 18Z TAFS SO WE KEEP THE FORECAST
STATUS QUO FOR THE TIME BEING.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH
MOSTLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS BETWEEN 6000 AND 8000 FT AGL. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS (AROUND 2000 FT AGL) DEVELOPING
PRIMARILY WEST OF THE FALL LINE, INCLUDING KRDG AND KABE, BETWEEN
09 AND 15Z. HOWEVER, GIVEN HOW DRY THE AIR MASS IS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER, THINK THIS IS VERY UNLIKELY. MORE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
EXPECTED STARTING TOMORROW LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.
CONDITIONS MAY DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE AT TIMES. AN EAST TO
NORTHEAST WIND AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH ITS
POTENTIAL IMPACT ON OPERATIONS AT KPHL.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
EVENING, WITH WIND GUSTS AT OR JUST ABOVE 25KT. WIND GUSTS SHOULD
BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY MID TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE WIND SPEEDS
DECREASE, SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 5 FT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND FOR WAVES ON
OUR OCEAN WATERS IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET. THE WIND DIRECTION IS
ANTICIPATED TO BACK GRADUALLY FROM THE EAST TO THE NORTH. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS IF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OCEAN
TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERION. HOWEVER, WAVE HEIGHTS ON
OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY REMAIN AROUND OR ABOVE 5 FEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NORTH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING ABOVE 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 30
PERCENT ARE POSSIBLE PRIMARILY OVER NJ, SOUTHEASTERN PA (SOUTHEAST
OF THE POCONOS), AND EXTREME NORTHERN DELMARVA. SINCE CONDITIONS
WILL BE MARGINAL AT WORST, WILL WAIT FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE FULL
SUITE OF MODEL RUNS BEFORE MAKING A DECISION IF TO ISSUE AN SPS OR
RFW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/JOHNSON
MARINE...IOVINO/JOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...JOHNSON




000
FXUS61 KPHI 280202
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1002 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AND COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OUT TO SEA. MEANWHILE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION GRADUALLY FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO PASS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES OUT TO
SEA ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO
BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE SHORT TERM GRIDS WITH THE LATE EVENING
UPDATE. HAVE PULLED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION AS
THE BETTER INSTABILITY/ENERGY REMAINS TO OUR WEST, THOUGH A BRIEF
SPRINKLE MAY OCCUR IN OUR EXTREME NORTHWESTERN ZONES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...OTHERWISE WE WILL REMAIN DRY. MID LEVELS REMAIN MOIST
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT EXTENSIVE CLOUDS UNTIL SUBSIDENCE BEGINS IN THE
WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
BY TOMORROW, THE LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC WILL BE NEARLY
VERTICALLY STACKED. OUR REGION WILL STAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
NORTHWESTERLY AND NORTHERLY FLOW AS THIS LOW SLOWLY SLIDES EAST
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THICKNESSES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY, THUS
EXPECT A MODEST WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
50S TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WE SHOULD REMAIN UNDER THE OUTER INFLUENCE OF A MID LEVEL LOW OFF
NOVA SCOTIA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AND IT IS FORECAST TO BE
OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD
BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE PERIOD.

A LONG WAVE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED TO BE OVER THE
EASTERN STATES FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST
TO DROP FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD AND
OFF THE COAST ON FRIDAY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA ON WEDNESDAY TO THE WATERS OFF CAPE HATTERAS ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL
GUIDANCE REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES
OUT TO SEA ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WHILE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER SEEMS LIKELY, THE NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH THE SYSTEM REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST. ALSO, AN AREA OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE MID LEVEL LOW. SOME REMNANT OF THAT
ACTIVITY MAY DRIFT TOWARD OUR REGION, AS WELL.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE SUGGESTING A DRY WEDGE POKING DOWN
INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT DUE TO THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW. ALSO, SUBSIDENCE
AROUND THE SYSTEM MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF
LESSENING PRECIPITATION AROUND ITS OUTER EDGE. AS A RESULT, WE
WILL KEEP OUR PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES MAINLY IN THE CHANCE
RANGE.

THE WIND FORECAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM REMAINS A BIT
UNCERTAIN, AS WELL. WHILE THE BACKING FROM AN EAST TO A NORTH WIND
FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY APPEARS LIKELY, THE SPEED FORECAST IS
DEPENDENT UPON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. WE HAVE GONE WITH
A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION FOR THE TIME BEING.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OVER THE WESTERN
NORTH ATLANTIC FOR THE WEEKEND. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY DROP
DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND SUNDAY. THE FEATURE IS ANTICIPATED
TO HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. A RIDGE FROM THE WEST
IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN STATES ON MONDAY.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY, THEN
THEY ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE
TO THE CLOUD COVER, EAST TO NORTH WIND AND POSSIBLE RAIN.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

NOT MUCH TO ADD TO THE PREVIOUS 18Z TAFS SO WE KEEP THE FORECAST
STATUS QUO FOR THE TIME BEING.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH
MOSTLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS BETWEEN 6000 AND 8000 FT AGL. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS (AROUND 2000 FT AGL) DEVELOPING
PRIMARILY WEST OF THE FALL LINE, INCLUDING KRDG AND KABE, BETWEEN
09 AND 15Z. HOWEVER, GIVEN HOW DRY THE AIR MASS IS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER, THINK THIS IS VERY UNLIKELY. MORE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
EXPECTED STARTING TOMORROW LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.
CONDITIONS MAY DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE AT TIMES. AN EAST TO
NORTHEAST WIND AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH ITS
POTENTIAL IMPACT ON OPERATIONS AT KPHL.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
EVENING, WITH WIND GUSTS AT OR JUST ABOVE 25KT. WIND GUSTS SHOULD
BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY MID TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE WIND SPEEDS
DECREASE, SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 5 FT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND FOR WAVES ON
OUR OCEAN WATERS IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET. THE WIND DIRECTION IS
ANTICIPATED TO BACK GRADUALLY FROM THE EAST TO THE NORTH. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS IF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OCEAN
TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERION. HOWEVER, WAVE HEIGHTS ON
OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY REMAIN AROUND OR ABOVE 5 FEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NORTH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING ABOVE 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 30
PERCENT ARE POSSIBLE PRIMARILY OVER NJ, SOUTHEASTERN PA (SOUTHEAST
OF THE POCONOS), AND EXTREME NORTHERN DELMARVA. SINCE CONDITIONS
WILL BE MARGINAL AT WORST, WILL WAIT FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE FULL
SUITE OF MODEL RUNS BEFORE MAKING A DECISION IF TO ISSUE AN SPS OR
RFW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/JOHNSON
MARINE...IOVINO/JOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...JOHNSON



000
FXUS61 KPHI 280202
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1002 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AND COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OUT TO SEA. MEANWHILE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION GRADUALLY FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO PASS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES OUT TO
SEA ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO
BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE SHORT TERM GRIDS WITH THE LATE EVENING
UPDATE. HAVE PULLED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION AS
THE BETTER INSTABILITY/ENERGY REMAINS TO OUR WEST, THOUGH A BRIEF
SPRINKLE MAY OCCUR IN OUR EXTREME NORTHWESTERN ZONES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...OTHERWISE WE WILL REMAIN DRY. MID LEVELS REMAIN MOIST
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT EXTENSIVE CLOUDS UNTIL SUBSIDENCE BEGINS IN THE
WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
BY TOMORROW, THE LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC WILL BE NEARLY
VERTICALLY STACKED. OUR REGION WILL STAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
NORTHWESTERLY AND NORTHERLY FLOW AS THIS LOW SLOWLY SLIDES EAST
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THICKNESSES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY, THUS
EXPECT A MODEST WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
50S TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WE SHOULD REMAIN UNDER THE OUTER INFLUENCE OF A MID LEVEL LOW OFF
NOVA SCOTIA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AND IT IS FORECAST TO BE
OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD
BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE PERIOD.

A LONG WAVE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED TO BE OVER THE
EASTERN STATES FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST
TO DROP FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD AND
OFF THE COAST ON FRIDAY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA ON WEDNESDAY TO THE WATERS OFF CAPE HATTERAS ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL
GUIDANCE REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES
OUT TO SEA ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WHILE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER SEEMS LIKELY, THE NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH THE SYSTEM REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST. ALSO, AN AREA OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE MID LEVEL LOW. SOME REMNANT OF THAT
ACTIVITY MAY DRIFT TOWARD OUR REGION, AS WELL.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE SUGGESTING A DRY WEDGE POKING DOWN
INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT DUE TO THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW. ALSO, SUBSIDENCE
AROUND THE SYSTEM MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF
LESSENING PRECIPITATION AROUND ITS OUTER EDGE. AS A RESULT, WE
WILL KEEP OUR PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES MAINLY IN THE CHANCE
RANGE.

THE WIND FORECAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM REMAINS A BIT
UNCERTAIN, AS WELL. WHILE THE BACKING FROM AN EAST TO A NORTH WIND
FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY APPEARS LIKELY, THE SPEED FORECAST IS
DEPENDENT UPON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. WE HAVE GONE WITH
A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION FOR THE TIME BEING.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OVER THE WESTERN
NORTH ATLANTIC FOR THE WEEKEND. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY DROP
DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND SUNDAY. THE FEATURE IS ANTICIPATED
TO HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. A RIDGE FROM THE WEST
IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN STATES ON MONDAY.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY, THEN
THEY ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE
TO THE CLOUD COVER, EAST TO NORTH WIND AND POSSIBLE RAIN.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

NOT MUCH TO ADD TO THE PREVIOUS 18Z TAFS SO WE KEEP THE FORECAST
STATUS QUO FOR THE TIME BEING.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH
MOSTLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS BETWEEN 6000 AND 8000 FT AGL. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS (AROUND 2000 FT AGL) DEVELOPING
PRIMARILY WEST OF THE FALL LINE, INCLUDING KRDG AND KABE, BETWEEN
09 AND 15Z. HOWEVER, GIVEN HOW DRY THE AIR MASS IS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER, THINK THIS IS VERY UNLIKELY. MORE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
EXPECTED STARTING TOMORROW LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.
CONDITIONS MAY DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE AT TIMES. AN EAST TO
NORTHEAST WIND AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH ITS
POTENTIAL IMPACT ON OPERATIONS AT KPHL.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
EVENING, WITH WIND GUSTS AT OR JUST ABOVE 25KT. WIND GUSTS SHOULD
BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY MID TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE WIND SPEEDS
DECREASE, SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 5 FT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND FOR WAVES ON
OUR OCEAN WATERS IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET. THE WIND DIRECTION IS
ANTICIPATED TO BACK GRADUALLY FROM THE EAST TO THE NORTH. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS IF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OCEAN
TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERION. HOWEVER, WAVE HEIGHTS ON
OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY REMAIN AROUND OR ABOVE 5 FEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NORTH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING ABOVE 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 30
PERCENT ARE POSSIBLE PRIMARILY OVER NJ, SOUTHEASTERN PA (SOUTHEAST
OF THE POCONOS), AND EXTREME NORTHERN DELMARVA. SINCE CONDITIONS
WILL BE MARGINAL AT WORST, WILL WAIT FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE FULL
SUITE OF MODEL RUNS BEFORE MAKING A DECISION IF TO ISSUE AN SPS OR
RFW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/JOHNSON
MARINE...IOVINO/JOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...JOHNSON



000
FXUS61 KPHI 280202
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1002 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AND COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OUT TO SEA. MEANWHILE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION GRADUALLY FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO PASS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES OUT TO
SEA ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO
BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE SHORT TERM GRIDS WITH THE LATE EVENING
UPDATE. HAVE PULLED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION AS
THE BETTER INSTABILITY/ENERGY REMAINS TO OUR WEST, THOUGH A BRIEF
SPRINKLE MAY OCCUR IN OUR EXTREME NORTHWESTERN ZONES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...OTHERWISE WE WILL REMAIN DRY. MID LEVELS REMAIN MOIST
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT EXTENSIVE CLOUDS UNTIL SUBSIDENCE BEGINS IN THE
WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
BY TOMORROW, THE LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC WILL BE NEARLY
VERTICALLY STACKED. OUR REGION WILL STAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
NORTHWESTERLY AND NORTHERLY FLOW AS THIS LOW SLOWLY SLIDES EAST
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THICKNESSES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY, THUS
EXPECT A MODEST WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
50S TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WE SHOULD REMAIN UNDER THE OUTER INFLUENCE OF A MID LEVEL LOW OFF
NOVA SCOTIA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AND IT IS FORECAST TO BE
OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD
BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE PERIOD.

A LONG WAVE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED TO BE OVER THE
EASTERN STATES FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST
TO DROP FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD AND
OFF THE COAST ON FRIDAY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA ON WEDNESDAY TO THE WATERS OFF CAPE HATTERAS ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL
GUIDANCE REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES
OUT TO SEA ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WHILE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER SEEMS LIKELY, THE NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH THE SYSTEM REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST. ALSO, AN AREA OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE MID LEVEL LOW. SOME REMNANT OF THAT
ACTIVITY MAY DRIFT TOWARD OUR REGION, AS WELL.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE SUGGESTING A DRY WEDGE POKING DOWN
INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT DUE TO THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW. ALSO, SUBSIDENCE
AROUND THE SYSTEM MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF
LESSENING PRECIPITATION AROUND ITS OUTER EDGE. AS A RESULT, WE
WILL KEEP OUR PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES MAINLY IN THE CHANCE
RANGE.

THE WIND FORECAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM REMAINS A BIT
UNCERTAIN, AS WELL. WHILE THE BACKING FROM AN EAST TO A NORTH WIND
FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY APPEARS LIKELY, THE SPEED FORECAST IS
DEPENDENT UPON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. WE HAVE GONE WITH
A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION FOR THE TIME BEING.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OVER THE WESTERN
NORTH ATLANTIC FOR THE WEEKEND. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY DROP
DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND SUNDAY. THE FEATURE IS ANTICIPATED
TO HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. A RIDGE FROM THE WEST
IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN STATES ON MONDAY.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY, THEN
THEY ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE
TO THE CLOUD COVER, EAST TO NORTH WIND AND POSSIBLE RAIN.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

NOT MUCH TO ADD TO THE PREVIOUS 18Z TAFS SO WE KEEP THE FORECAST
STATUS QUO FOR THE TIME BEING.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH
MOSTLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS BETWEEN 6000 AND 8000 FT AGL. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS (AROUND 2000 FT AGL) DEVELOPING
PRIMARILY WEST OF THE FALL LINE, INCLUDING KRDG AND KABE, BETWEEN
09 AND 15Z. HOWEVER, GIVEN HOW DRY THE AIR MASS IS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER, THINK THIS IS VERY UNLIKELY. MORE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
EXPECTED STARTING TOMORROW LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.
CONDITIONS MAY DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE AT TIMES. AN EAST TO
NORTHEAST WIND AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH ITS
POTENTIAL IMPACT ON OPERATIONS AT KPHL.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
EVENING, WITH WIND GUSTS AT OR JUST ABOVE 25KT. WIND GUSTS SHOULD
BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY MID TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE WIND SPEEDS
DECREASE, SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 5 FT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND FOR WAVES ON
OUR OCEAN WATERS IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET. THE WIND DIRECTION IS
ANTICIPATED TO BACK GRADUALLY FROM THE EAST TO THE NORTH. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS IF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OCEAN
TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERION. HOWEVER, WAVE HEIGHTS ON
OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY REMAIN AROUND OR ABOVE 5 FEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NORTH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING ABOVE 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 30
PERCENT ARE POSSIBLE PRIMARILY OVER NJ, SOUTHEASTERN PA (SOUTHEAST
OF THE POCONOS), AND EXTREME NORTHERN DELMARVA. SINCE CONDITIONS
WILL BE MARGINAL AT WORST, WILL WAIT FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE FULL
SUITE OF MODEL RUNS BEFORE MAKING A DECISION IF TO ISSUE AN SPS OR
RFW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/JOHNSON
MARINE...IOVINO/JOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...JOHNSON



000
FXUS61 KPHI 280202
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1002 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AND COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OUT TO SEA. MEANWHILE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION GRADUALLY FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO PASS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES OUT TO
SEA ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO
BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE SHORT TERM GRIDS WITH THE LATE EVENING
UPDATE. HAVE PULLED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION AS
THE BETTER INSTABILITY/ENERGY REMAINS TO OUR WEST, THOUGH A BRIEF
SPRINKLE MAY OCCUR IN OUR EXTREME NORTHWESTERN ZONES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...OTHERWISE WE WILL REMAIN DRY. MID LEVELS REMAIN MOIST
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT EXTENSIVE CLOUDS UNTIL SUBSIDENCE BEGINS IN THE
WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
BY TOMORROW, THE LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC WILL BE NEARLY
VERTICALLY STACKED. OUR REGION WILL STAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
NORTHWESTERLY AND NORTHERLY FLOW AS THIS LOW SLOWLY SLIDES EAST
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THICKNESSES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY, THUS
EXPECT A MODEST WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
50S TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WE SHOULD REMAIN UNDER THE OUTER INFLUENCE OF A MID LEVEL LOW OFF
NOVA SCOTIA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AND IT IS FORECAST TO BE
OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD
BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE PERIOD.

A LONG WAVE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED TO BE OVER THE
EASTERN STATES FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST
TO DROP FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD AND
OFF THE COAST ON FRIDAY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA ON WEDNESDAY TO THE WATERS OFF CAPE HATTERAS ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL
GUIDANCE REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES
OUT TO SEA ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WHILE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER SEEMS LIKELY, THE NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH THE SYSTEM REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST. ALSO, AN AREA OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE MID LEVEL LOW. SOME REMNANT OF THAT
ACTIVITY MAY DRIFT TOWARD OUR REGION, AS WELL.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE SUGGESTING A DRY WEDGE POKING DOWN
INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT DUE TO THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW. ALSO, SUBSIDENCE
AROUND THE SYSTEM MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF
LESSENING PRECIPITATION AROUND ITS OUTER EDGE. AS A RESULT, WE
WILL KEEP OUR PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES MAINLY IN THE CHANCE
RANGE.

THE WIND FORECAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM REMAINS A BIT
UNCERTAIN, AS WELL. WHILE THE BACKING FROM AN EAST TO A NORTH WIND
FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY APPEARS LIKELY, THE SPEED FORECAST IS
DEPENDENT UPON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. WE HAVE GONE WITH
A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION FOR THE TIME BEING.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OVER THE WESTERN
NORTH ATLANTIC FOR THE WEEKEND. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY DROP
DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND SUNDAY. THE FEATURE IS ANTICIPATED
TO HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. A RIDGE FROM THE WEST
IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN STATES ON MONDAY.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY, THEN
THEY ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE
TO THE CLOUD COVER, EAST TO NORTH WIND AND POSSIBLE RAIN.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

NOT MUCH TO ADD TO THE PREVIOUS 18Z TAFS SO WE KEEP THE FORECAST
STATUS QUO FOR THE TIME BEING.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH
MOSTLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS BETWEEN 6000 AND 8000 FT AGL. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS (AROUND 2000 FT AGL) DEVELOPING
PRIMARILY WEST OF THE FALL LINE, INCLUDING KRDG AND KABE, BETWEEN
09 AND 15Z. HOWEVER, GIVEN HOW DRY THE AIR MASS IS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER, THINK THIS IS VERY UNLIKELY. MORE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
EXPECTED STARTING TOMORROW LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.
CONDITIONS MAY DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE AT TIMES. AN EAST TO
NORTHEAST WIND AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH ITS
POTENTIAL IMPACT ON OPERATIONS AT KPHL.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
EVENING, WITH WIND GUSTS AT OR JUST ABOVE 25KT. WIND GUSTS SHOULD
BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY MID TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE WIND SPEEDS
DECREASE, SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 5 FT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND FOR WAVES ON
OUR OCEAN WATERS IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET. THE WIND DIRECTION IS
ANTICIPATED TO BACK GRADUALLY FROM THE EAST TO THE NORTH. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS IF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OCEAN
TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERION. HOWEVER, WAVE HEIGHTS ON
OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY REMAIN AROUND OR ABOVE 5 FEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NORTH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING ABOVE 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 30
PERCENT ARE POSSIBLE PRIMARILY OVER NJ, SOUTHEASTERN PA (SOUTHEAST
OF THE POCONOS), AND EXTREME NORTHERN DELMARVA. SINCE CONDITIONS
WILL BE MARGINAL AT WORST, WILL WAIT FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE FULL
SUITE OF MODEL RUNS BEFORE MAKING A DECISION IF TO ISSUE AN SPS OR
RFW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/JOHNSON
MARINE...IOVINO/JOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...JOHNSON



000
FXUS61 KLWX 280133
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
933 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN. LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE
REGION MIDWEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LVL LOW REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THROUGH TONIGHT...EXTENDING BACK TO THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTH INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC. S/WV ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NLY FLOW HAS
RESULTED IN WDLY SCT SHRA. HWVR...LLVL AMS DRY...WHICH HAS
PRECLUDED MOST OF THIS MSTR FROM REACHING THE GROUND.

AM NOTING A DOWNWARD TREND NOW THAT SUNSET HAS OCCURRED. BELIEVE
THIS WILL CONTINUE...AND WILL RUN WITH A DRY FCST OVERNIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL BE A BIT MORE SUBSTANTIVE THO...THEN PART IN THE WAKE
OF THE VORT. IN TURN...THE CLDS WL KEEP TEMPS UP...WHICH IS
REFLECTED IN LAMP GDNC. GOING TEMP FCST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK. HV
MADE NO TEMP CHGS...WHICH MEANS DO NOT BELIEVE THERE WL BE MUCH OF
A FROST CONCERN IN THE CENTRAL SHEN VLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LVL LOW PIVOTS OFF TO THE EAST TUES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN AT THE SFC...KEEPING THE AREA DRY. SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL HELP TO CLEAR SKIES TUES
MORNING...BUT COULD SEE SCT CU BY TUES AFTN. DOWNSLOPING WINDS
UNDER THE SCT SKIES WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
LOWS TUES NIGHT STAY IN THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA...LIMITING
THE FROST CONCERN.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND BE REPLACED BY A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE APPALACHIANS. A SECOND AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AS IT PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN FL
AND MOVE OFFSHORE. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE DAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF
THE HIGHLANDS...THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL
FOOTHILLS. OTHERWISE DRY WX EXPECTED. RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGH OFFSHORE. TEMPS SHOULD BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOW 70S.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE MTNS WED NIGHT. THE LOW THAT WAS
OVER FL DURING THE DAY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AND STRENGTHEN. THERE
REMAINS SOME SPREAD AMONG MODELS ABOUT THE STRENGTH AND TRAJECTORY
OF THIS SYSTEM...AND THEREFORE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT TIMING AND LOCATION
OF RAINFALL ONSET OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE TIME BEING. LOWS FOR MOST AREAS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S...WITH LOW TO MID 50S LIKELY ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS RATHER LARGE WITH TRACK OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL OR EVEN MODEL CYCLE
YOU CHOOSE...OUR AREA COULD SEE ANYWHERE FROM A COUPLE OF INCHES
TO LESS THAN A HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. 00Z GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH TRACK...WITH THE LOW HUGGING THE COASTLINE AS IT MOVES TO OUR
EAST/NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...12Z GFS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH 00Z
ECMWF...AND KEEPS LOW FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE THAT OVERALL IMPACTS TO
OUR AREA ARE LESS. FOR NOW...LEANED MORE TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF/12Z
GFS SOLUTION DUE BETTER INITIALIZATIONS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
CLOSELY AS A SMALL CHANGE IN THE TRACK COULD SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE
IMPACTS FOR OUR AREA.

REGARDLESS OF WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS THIS WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO AND PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTS HV DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT.
WL HV NW FLOW THRU THE NGT WHICH WL CONT INTO TMRW. OCNL CIGS
BKN-OVC050.

PRIMARILY VFR WEDNESDAY. LIGHT NW WINDS IN THE MORNING
BECOME SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTN. PSBL SUB-VFR WITH POTENTIAL RAIN DVLPG
WED NIGHT. WINDS S-SW LESS THAN 10KT.

UNCERTAINTY REMAINS LARGE WITH TRACK AND IMPACT OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG COAST ON THU. THE MORE THE LOW HUGS THE
COAST...THE GREATER THE AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE.
REGARDLESS...WOULD EXPECT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN ANY SHOWERS THAT
OCCUR THU INTO FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10PM FOR ALL WATERS...THEN
CONTINUES ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LWR TIDAL POTOMAC THROUGH
TUES AFTN. LTST GDNC SUGGESTS THAT WINDS STARTING TO DECREASE...
AND WL BE ABLE TO DROP UPR PTMC WATERS ON TIME. WINDS MAY DIMINISH
ON THE REST OF THE WATERS TOO...BUT IT WL BE SPORADIC AND NOT OF
LONG ENOUGH DURATION. WL THEREFORE...CONT THE SCA THRU THE DAY
TUE. STILL BELIEVE THAT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS BY TUES
EVENING.

LIGHT NW WINDS ON THE WATERS WED MORNING...BECOMING S-SE 5-10KT BY
THE AFTN. NO ADVISORIES XPCTD. LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE INTO THE
ATLANTIC OFF THE FL COAST WED NIGHT AND STRENGTHEN AS IT BEGINS TO
MOVE TO THE NORTH. WINDS BECOME SW AROUND 10KT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SOME GUSTS UP TO 15KT. LIGHT RAIN PSBL.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE COAST THU INTO FRI HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE PERIODS OF SCA OR GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...SEARS/KCS
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...HTS/SEARS/KCS/MSE
MARINE...HTS/SEARS/KCS/MSE




000
FXUS61 KLWX 280133
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
933 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN. LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE
REGION MIDWEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LVL LOW REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THROUGH TONIGHT...EXTENDING BACK TO THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTH INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC. S/WV ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NLY FLOW HAS
RESULTED IN WDLY SCT SHRA. HWVR...LLVL AMS DRY...WHICH HAS
PRECLUDED MOST OF THIS MSTR FROM REACHING THE GROUND.

AM NOTING A DOWNWARD TREND NOW THAT SUNSET HAS OCCURRED. BELIEVE
THIS WILL CONTINUE...AND WILL RUN WITH A DRY FCST OVERNIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL BE A BIT MORE SUBSTANTIVE THO...THEN PART IN THE WAKE
OF THE VORT. IN TURN...THE CLDS WL KEEP TEMPS UP...WHICH IS
REFLECTED IN LAMP GDNC. GOING TEMP FCST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK. HV
MADE NO TEMP CHGS...WHICH MEANS DO NOT BELIEVE THERE WL BE MUCH OF
A FROST CONCERN IN THE CENTRAL SHEN VLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LVL LOW PIVOTS OFF TO THE EAST TUES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN AT THE SFC...KEEPING THE AREA DRY. SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL HELP TO CLEAR SKIES TUES
MORNING...BUT COULD SEE SCT CU BY TUES AFTN. DOWNSLOPING WINDS
UNDER THE SCT SKIES WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
LOWS TUES NIGHT STAY IN THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA...LIMITING
THE FROST CONCERN.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND BE REPLACED BY A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE APPALACHIANS. A SECOND AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AS IT PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN FL
AND MOVE OFFSHORE. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE DAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF
THE HIGHLANDS...THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL
FOOTHILLS. OTHERWISE DRY WX EXPECTED. RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGH OFFSHORE. TEMPS SHOULD BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOW 70S.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE MTNS WED NIGHT. THE LOW THAT WAS
OVER FL DURING THE DAY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AND STRENGTHEN. THERE
REMAINS SOME SPREAD AMONG MODELS ABOUT THE STRENGTH AND TRAJECTORY
OF THIS SYSTEM...AND THEREFORE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT TIMING AND LOCATION
OF RAINFALL ONSET OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE TIME BEING. LOWS FOR MOST AREAS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S...WITH LOW TO MID 50S LIKELY ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS RATHER LARGE WITH TRACK OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL OR EVEN MODEL CYCLE
YOU CHOOSE...OUR AREA COULD SEE ANYWHERE FROM A COUPLE OF INCHES
TO LESS THAN A HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. 00Z GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH TRACK...WITH THE LOW HUGGING THE COASTLINE AS IT MOVES TO OUR
EAST/NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...12Z GFS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH 00Z
ECMWF...AND KEEPS LOW FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE THAT OVERALL IMPACTS TO
OUR AREA ARE LESS. FOR NOW...LEANED MORE TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF/12Z
GFS SOLUTION DUE BETTER INITIALIZATIONS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
CLOSELY AS A SMALL CHANGE IN THE TRACK COULD SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE
IMPACTS FOR OUR AREA.

REGARDLESS OF WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS THIS WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO AND PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTS HV DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT.
WL HV NW FLOW THRU THE NGT WHICH WL CONT INTO TMRW. OCNL CIGS
BKN-OVC050.

PRIMARILY VFR WEDNESDAY. LIGHT NW WINDS IN THE MORNING
BECOME SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTN. PSBL SUB-VFR WITH POTENTIAL RAIN DVLPG
WED NIGHT. WINDS S-SW LESS THAN 10KT.

UNCERTAINTY REMAINS LARGE WITH TRACK AND IMPACT OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG COAST ON THU. THE MORE THE LOW HUGS THE
COAST...THE GREATER THE AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE.
REGARDLESS...WOULD EXPECT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN ANY SHOWERS THAT
OCCUR THU INTO FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10PM FOR ALL WATERS...THEN
CONTINUES ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LWR TIDAL POTOMAC THROUGH
TUES AFTN. LTST GDNC SUGGESTS THAT WINDS STARTING TO DECREASE...
AND WL BE ABLE TO DROP UPR PTMC WATERS ON TIME. WINDS MAY DIMINISH
ON THE REST OF THE WATERS TOO...BUT IT WL BE SPORADIC AND NOT OF
LONG ENOUGH DURATION. WL THEREFORE...CONT THE SCA THRU THE DAY
TUE. STILL BELIEVE THAT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS BY TUES
EVENING.

LIGHT NW WINDS ON THE WATERS WED MORNING...BECOMING S-SE 5-10KT BY
THE AFTN. NO ADVISORIES XPCTD. LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE INTO THE
ATLANTIC OFF THE FL COAST WED NIGHT AND STRENGTHEN AS IT BEGINS TO
MOVE TO THE NORTH. WINDS BECOME SW AROUND 10KT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SOME GUSTS UP TO 15KT. LIGHT RAIN PSBL.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE COAST THU INTO FRI HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE PERIODS OF SCA OR GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...SEARS/KCS
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...HTS/SEARS/KCS/MSE
MARINE...HTS/SEARS/KCS/MSE



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280128
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
928 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FROM THE WEST LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS DEPICTS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. STRONG
UPPER LOW ALOFT CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF MAINE...BUT EXTENDING
WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WV SATELLITE
REVEALS A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE DIVING SE THROUGH WV...AND THIS IS
PROGGED TO PUSH SSE THROUGH THE CWA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. SKIES
HAVE BECOME VARIABLY CLOUDY ACRS THE LOCAL AREA...TEMPORARILY
MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA. THE FORCING
THAT MOVES THROUGH INTO THE EVENING HRS MAY BE ENOUGH TO SET OFF A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DESPITE TEMP/DEW PT DEPRESSIONS ON THE ORDER
OF 25-30 DEGREES. SEEMS LIKE MOST FAVORABLE REGION WOULD STILL BE
ACRS THE NORTH AND EAST...AND WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY OVER THE SW
1/2 OF THE CWA. VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS EVENING BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOS MAINLY 40-45 F...A FEW UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE INTERIOR VA...TO THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 F IMMEDIATE SE
VA/NE NC COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
S/W WILL BE SHEARED OUT/SSE OF THE REGION ON TUE...SHOULD SEE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LESS AFTN CU DEVELOPMENT THAN MON. HIGHS
WILL GET A LITTLE WARMER...THOUGH REMAIN ABOUT 5 DEG BELOW
AVG...MID 60S NEAR THE COAST TO UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 F WELL
INLAND. SFC HI PRES THEN WEAKENS/DRIFT OFF THE CST INTO WED. LO
PRES EXITING SCNTRL CONUS TUE/TUE NGT BEGINS TO TRACK THROUGH THE
GULF CST STATES ON WED...BRINGING GRADUAL INCRS IN CLDNS/MOISTURE
INTO THE MID ATLC RGN. MDLS CONT TO HOLD OFF MOST OF ANY SGFNT
PCPN UNTIL LT WED. WILL MAINTAIN 30-50% POPS WED AFTN SW...DRY
NE. HI TEMPS WED FM THE M60S SW TO UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ELSW.
DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES IN FROM SSW TO NNE WED NIGHT...WITH BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF BRINGING WHAT LOOKS TO BE A GOOD OVERRUNNING EVENT
LATER WED NIGHT/THU MORNING TO AT LEAST THE SRN 1/2 OF THE CWA.
BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY SOUTH...HIGH CHC NORTH LATER WED NIGHT.
LOWS MAINLY FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. STRONG UPPER LOW NOW
PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SE STATES ON
THU...AS SFC LOW INTENSIFIES OFF THE NC COAST. BETTER AGREEMENT
BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF WARRANTS LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS THU...ALTHOUGH
NOT NECESSARILY GOING TO RAIN ALL DAY AS TRACK OF UPPER LOW WILL
MAKE UNCERTAINTY FAIRLY HIGH AS TO QPF AMOUNTS. COOLER/MAINLY
CLOUDY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LWR-MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW TRAVERSES THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT
THEN PUSHES WELL OUT TO SEA BY LATE FRIDAY. SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN PRIMARILY OVER EASTERN AREAS
FRIDAY MORNING/MIDDAY...BEFORE FINALLY ENDING LATE FRI AFTN OR EVE.
WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS (60%) MOST AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SOLID
CHC POPS (30-40%) ON FRIDAY. DRY WX THEN RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AND AN H5 RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S THU/FRI
NIGHTS...WARMING INTO MID/UPR 50S BY NEXT SUN/MON NIGHTS. HIGHS
FRIDAY FROM THE LOW 60S EASTERN SHORE TO THE UPR 60S FAR SW ZONES.
HIGH TEMPS WARM BY NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE 70S...WITH LOW 80S POSSIBLE
INLAND NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST TUESDAY.
DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA SHOULD KEEP THE SKY MOSTLY CLEAR.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS. A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
A LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN OVER SRN VA AND NC. RAIN IS FORECAST TO END
ON FRIDAY. PERIODS OF IFR WILL BE PSBL DURING THIS EVENT.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
WIND SPEEDS TO THE LOCAL AREA BY THIS EVENING AND LASTING THRU TUES
MORNING. SCA`S REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ALL WATERS DURING THIS TIME.
WAVES WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT ON THE BAY TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING
TO 4-5 FT ON THE OCEAN. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TUE AFTN THRU WED NIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS IS LIKELY FOR ALL WATERS THU/FRI AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ633-650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...JDM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280128
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
928 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FROM THE WEST LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS DEPICTS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. STRONG
UPPER LOW ALOFT CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF MAINE...BUT EXTENDING
WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WV SATELLITE
REVEALS A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE DIVING SE THROUGH WV...AND THIS IS
PROGGED TO PUSH SSE THROUGH THE CWA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. SKIES
HAVE BECOME VARIABLY CLOUDY ACRS THE LOCAL AREA...TEMPORARILY
MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA. THE FORCING
THAT MOVES THROUGH INTO THE EVENING HRS MAY BE ENOUGH TO SET OFF A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DESPITE TEMP/DEW PT DEPRESSIONS ON THE ORDER
OF 25-30 DEGREES. SEEMS LIKE MOST FAVORABLE REGION WOULD STILL BE
ACRS THE NORTH AND EAST...AND WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY OVER THE SW
1/2 OF THE CWA. VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS EVENING BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOS MAINLY 40-45 F...A FEW UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE INTERIOR VA...TO THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 F IMMEDIATE SE
VA/NE NC COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
S/W WILL BE SHEARED OUT/SSE OF THE REGION ON TUE...SHOULD SEE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LESS AFTN CU DEVELOPMENT THAN MON. HIGHS
WILL GET A LITTLE WARMER...THOUGH REMAIN ABOUT 5 DEG BELOW
AVG...MID 60S NEAR THE COAST TO UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 F WELL
INLAND. SFC HI PRES THEN WEAKENS/DRIFT OFF THE CST INTO WED. LO
PRES EXITING SCNTRL CONUS TUE/TUE NGT BEGINS TO TRACK THROUGH THE
GULF CST STATES ON WED...BRINGING GRADUAL INCRS IN CLDNS/MOISTURE
INTO THE MID ATLC RGN. MDLS CONT TO HOLD OFF MOST OF ANY SGFNT
PCPN UNTIL LT WED. WILL MAINTAIN 30-50% POPS WED AFTN SW...DRY
NE. HI TEMPS WED FM THE M60S SW TO UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ELSW.
DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES IN FROM SSW TO NNE WED NIGHT...WITH BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF BRINGING WHAT LOOKS TO BE A GOOD OVERRUNNING EVENT
LATER WED NIGHT/THU MORNING TO AT LEAST THE SRN 1/2 OF THE CWA.
BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY SOUTH...HIGH CHC NORTH LATER WED NIGHT.
LOWS MAINLY FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. STRONG UPPER LOW NOW
PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SE STATES ON
THU...AS SFC LOW INTENSIFIES OFF THE NC COAST. BETTER AGREEMENT
BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF WARRANTS LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS THU...ALTHOUGH
NOT NECESSARILY GOING TO RAIN ALL DAY AS TRACK OF UPPER LOW WILL
MAKE UNCERTAINTY FAIRLY HIGH AS TO QPF AMOUNTS. COOLER/MAINLY
CLOUDY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LWR-MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW TRAVERSES THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT
THEN PUSHES WELL OUT TO SEA BY LATE FRIDAY. SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN PRIMARILY OVER EASTERN AREAS
FRIDAY MORNING/MIDDAY...BEFORE FINALLY ENDING LATE FRI AFTN OR EVE.
WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS (60%) MOST AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SOLID
CHC POPS (30-40%) ON FRIDAY. DRY WX THEN RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AND AN H5 RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S THU/FRI
NIGHTS...WARMING INTO MID/UPR 50S BY NEXT SUN/MON NIGHTS. HIGHS
FRIDAY FROM THE LOW 60S EASTERN SHORE TO THE UPR 60S FAR SW ZONES.
HIGH TEMPS WARM BY NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE 70S...WITH LOW 80S POSSIBLE
INLAND NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST TUESDAY.
DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA SHOULD KEEP THE SKY MOSTLY CLEAR.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS. A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
A LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN OVER SRN VA AND NC. RAIN IS FORECAST TO END
ON FRIDAY. PERIODS OF IFR WILL BE PSBL DURING THIS EVENT.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
WIND SPEEDS TO THE LOCAL AREA BY THIS EVENING AND LASTING THRU TUES
MORNING. SCA`S REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ALL WATERS DURING THIS TIME.
WAVES WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT ON THE BAY TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING
TO 4-5 FT ON THE OCEAN. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TUE AFTN THRU WED NIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS IS LIKELY FOR ALL WATERS THU/FRI AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ633-650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...JDM




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280058
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
858 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER SHOWERS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW CONFINED TO A FEW STRAGGLING ISOLATED SHOWERS
NORTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROF SWINGS
THROUGH. SHOWERS THAT BLOSSOMED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS HAVE
DWINDLED AS THE SUN HAS SET...AND AS HEIGHTS BUILD FROM THE WEST.
ANY REMAINING SHOWERS SHOULD CEASE TO EXIST BY MIDNIGHT.

AS THE TROF SWINGS SOUTH TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE
CURRENTLY GENERATING LIGHT RAIN IN UPSTATE NEW YORK WILL ALSO MOVE
THROUGH. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...HEIGHTS HAVE BEEN BUILDING QUICKLY
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN. ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN SQUASHING THE RAIN UPON ARRIVAL...BUT
THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH
CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK IN SOME LOCATIONS...THE EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER SHOULD KEEP LARGE TEMPERATURE DROPS AT BAY.

STILL THINK THAT CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO A GOOD PART OF
TUESDAY...REJUVENATING INTO A CU FIELD BY SURFACE HEATING. THIS
COMBINED WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVENT ANY MAJOR
WARMUPS. HOWEVER...LATE APRIL SUN ANGLE SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO
BRING TEMPERATURES TO WITHIN A FEW TICKS OF THE 60 DEGREE MARK.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE
THE REGION FALLS UNDER A PINCHER ATTACK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHILE A LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. COMPUTER MODELS HAVE BEEN
ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THESE SYSTEMS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. AS A
RESULT...HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT MORE MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH
THE COASTAL FRONT THAN WITH THE FRONT...SO HAVE GONE WITH A GRADIENT
FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR RAIN CHANCES ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CHANCE POPS DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM
MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. BY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON HANDLING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
EAST COAST MAKE FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...AND CONTINUED TO
FOLLOW NEWEST WPC PROGS INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. FKL/DUJ MAY
SEE LOWER MVFR CIGS AND SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT IN NW FLOW.
EXPECTING SCT-BKN CU DEVELOPMENT STARTING LATE MORNING
TUESDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS MAINTAINED. GUSTY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT CONTINUE TO BLOW AT
5-10 KNOTS THROUGH TUESDAY.  CL

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH
THURSDAY LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280058
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
858 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER SHOWERS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW CONFINED TO A FEW STRAGGLING ISOLATED SHOWERS
NORTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROF SWINGS
THROUGH. SHOWERS THAT BLOSSOMED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS HAVE
DWINDLED AS THE SUN HAS SET...AND AS HEIGHTS BUILD FROM THE WEST.
ANY REMAINING SHOWERS SHOULD CEASE TO EXIST BY MIDNIGHT.

AS THE TROF SWINGS SOUTH TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE
CURRENTLY GENERATING LIGHT RAIN IN UPSTATE NEW YORK WILL ALSO MOVE
THROUGH. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...HEIGHTS HAVE BEEN BUILDING QUICKLY
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN. ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN SQUASHING THE RAIN UPON ARRIVAL...BUT
THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH
CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK IN SOME LOCATIONS...THE EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER SHOULD KEEP LARGE TEMPERATURE DROPS AT BAY.

STILL THINK THAT CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO A GOOD PART OF
TUESDAY...REJUVENATING INTO A CU FIELD BY SURFACE HEATING. THIS
COMBINED WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVENT ANY MAJOR
WARMUPS. HOWEVER...LATE APRIL SUN ANGLE SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO
BRING TEMPERATURES TO WITHIN A FEW TICKS OF THE 60 DEGREE MARK.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE
THE REGION FALLS UNDER A PINCHER ATTACK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHILE A LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. COMPUTER MODELS HAVE BEEN
ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THESE SYSTEMS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. AS A
RESULT...HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT MORE MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH
THE COASTAL FRONT THAN WITH THE FRONT...SO HAVE GONE WITH A GRADIENT
FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR RAIN CHANCES ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CHANCE POPS DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM
MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. BY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON HANDLING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
EAST COAST MAKE FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...AND CONTINUED TO
FOLLOW NEWEST WPC PROGS INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. FKL/DUJ MAY
SEE LOWER MVFR CIGS AND SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT IN NW FLOW.
EXPECTING SCT-BKN CU DEVELOPMENT STARTING LATE MORNING
TUESDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS MAINTAINED. GUSTY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT CONTINUE TO BLOW AT
5-10 KNOTS THROUGH TUESDAY.  CL

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH
THURSDAY LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280058
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
858 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER SHOWERS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW CONFINED TO A FEW STRAGGLING ISOLATED SHOWERS
NORTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROF SWINGS
THROUGH. SHOWERS THAT BLOSSOMED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS HAVE
DWINDLED AS THE SUN HAS SET...AND AS HEIGHTS BUILD FROM THE WEST.
ANY REMAINING SHOWERS SHOULD CEASE TO EXIST BY MIDNIGHT.

AS THE TROF SWINGS SOUTH TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE
CURRENTLY GENERATING LIGHT RAIN IN UPSTATE NEW YORK WILL ALSO MOVE
THROUGH. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...HEIGHTS HAVE BEEN BUILDING QUICKLY
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN. ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN SQUASHING THE RAIN UPON ARRIVAL...BUT
THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH
CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK IN SOME LOCATIONS...THE EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER SHOULD KEEP LARGE TEMPERATURE DROPS AT BAY.

STILL THINK THAT CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO A GOOD PART OF
TUESDAY...REJUVENATING INTO A CU FIELD BY SURFACE HEATING. THIS
COMBINED WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVENT ANY MAJOR
WARMUPS. HOWEVER...LATE APRIL SUN ANGLE SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO
BRING TEMPERATURES TO WITHIN A FEW TICKS OF THE 60 DEGREE MARK.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE
THE REGION FALLS UNDER A PINCHER ATTACK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHILE A LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. COMPUTER MODELS HAVE BEEN
ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THESE SYSTEMS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. AS A
RESULT...HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT MORE MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH
THE COASTAL FRONT THAN WITH THE FRONT...SO HAVE GONE WITH A GRADIENT
FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR RAIN CHANCES ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CHANCE POPS DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM
MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. BY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON HANDLING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
EAST COAST MAKE FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...AND CONTINUED TO
FOLLOW NEWEST WPC PROGS INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. FKL/DUJ MAY
SEE LOWER MVFR CIGS AND SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT IN NW FLOW.
EXPECTING SCT-BKN CU DEVELOPMENT STARTING LATE MORNING
TUESDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS MAINTAINED. GUSTY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT CONTINUE TO BLOW AT
5-10 KNOTS THROUGH TUESDAY.  CL

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH
THURSDAY LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 272345
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
745 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER SHOWERS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH IT
APPEARS THAT OHIO COUNTIES COULD MANAGE TO REMAIN DRY AT THIS POINT
AFTER HAVING MORNING SHOWERS. HAVE KEPT ISOLATED MENTION OF SNOW IN
THE FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS ABOVE 2500FT FOR OCCASIONAL SNOWFLAKES OR
GRAUPEL...AS AT LEAST ONE REPORT OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION HAS COME IN
FROM GREGGS KNOB IN PRESTON COUNTY. SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY
LIMITED BY MIDNIGHT. A TEMPERATURE INVERSION DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT
SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS
SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR...ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WERE NEVER THAT WARM TO BEGIN WITH TODAY.

STILL THINK THAT CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO A GOOD PART OF
TUESDAY...AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVENT ANY MAJOR WARMUPS.
HOWEVER...LATE APRIL SUN ANGLE SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO BRING
TEMPERATURES TO WITHIN A FEW TICKS OF THE 60 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE
THE REGION FALLS UNDER A PINCHER ATTACK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHILE A LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. COMPUTER MODELS HAVE BEEN
ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THESE SYSTEMS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. AS A
RESULT...HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT MORE MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH
THE COASTAL FRONT THAN WITH THE FRONT...SO HAVE GONE WITH A GRADIENT
FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR RAIN CHANCES ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CHANCE POPS DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM
MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. BY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON HANDLING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
EAST COAST MAKE FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...AND CONTINUED TO
FOLLOW NEWEST WPC PROGS INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. FKL/DUJ MAY
SEE LOWER MVFR CIGS AND SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT IN NW FLOW.
EXPECTING SCT-BKN CU DEVELOPMENT STARTING LATE MORNING
TUESDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS MAINTAINED. GUSTY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT CONTINUE TO BLOW AT
5-10 KNOTS THROUGH TUESDAY.  CL

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH
THURSDAY LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 272345
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
745 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER SHOWERS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH IT
APPEARS THAT OHIO COUNTIES COULD MANAGE TO REMAIN DRY AT THIS POINT
AFTER HAVING MORNING SHOWERS. HAVE KEPT ISOLATED MENTION OF SNOW IN
THE FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS ABOVE 2500FT FOR OCCASIONAL SNOWFLAKES OR
GRAUPEL...AS AT LEAST ONE REPORT OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION HAS COME IN
FROM GREGGS KNOB IN PRESTON COUNTY. SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY
LIMITED BY MIDNIGHT. A TEMPERATURE INVERSION DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT
SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS
SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR...ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WERE NEVER THAT WARM TO BEGIN WITH TODAY.

STILL THINK THAT CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO A GOOD PART OF
TUESDAY...AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVENT ANY MAJOR WARMUPS.
HOWEVER...LATE APRIL SUN ANGLE SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO BRING
TEMPERATURES TO WITHIN A FEW TICKS OF THE 60 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE
THE REGION FALLS UNDER A PINCHER ATTACK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHILE A LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. COMPUTER MODELS HAVE BEEN
ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THESE SYSTEMS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. AS A
RESULT...HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT MORE MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH
THE COASTAL FRONT THAN WITH THE FRONT...SO HAVE GONE WITH A GRADIENT
FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR RAIN CHANCES ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CHANCE POPS DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM
MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. BY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON HANDLING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
EAST COAST MAKE FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...AND CONTINUED TO
FOLLOW NEWEST WPC PROGS INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. FKL/DUJ MAY
SEE LOWER MVFR CIGS AND SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT IN NW FLOW.
EXPECTING SCT-BKN CU DEVELOPMENT STARTING LATE MORNING
TUESDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS MAINTAINED. GUSTY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT CONTINUE TO BLOW AT
5-10 KNOTS THROUGH TUESDAY.  CL

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH
THURSDAY LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 272345
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
745 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER SHOWERS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH IT
APPEARS THAT OHIO COUNTIES COULD MANAGE TO REMAIN DRY AT THIS POINT
AFTER HAVING MORNING SHOWERS. HAVE KEPT ISOLATED MENTION OF SNOW IN
THE FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS ABOVE 2500FT FOR OCCASIONAL SNOWFLAKES OR
GRAUPEL...AS AT LEAST ONE REPORT OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION HAS COME IN
FROM GREGGS KNOB IN PRESTON COUNTY. SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY
LIMITED BY MIDNIGHT. A TEMPERATURE INVERSION DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT
SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS
SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR...ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WERE NEVER THAT WARM TO BEGIN WITH TODAY.

STILL THINK THAT CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO A GOOD PART OF
TUESDAY...AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVENT ANY MAJOR WARMUPS.
HOWEVER...LATE APRIL SUN ANGLE SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO BRING
TEMPERATURES TO WITHIN A FEW TICKS OF THE 60 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE
THE REGION FALLS UNDER A PINCHER ATTACK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHILE A LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. COMPUTER MODELS HAVE BEEN
ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THESE SYSTEMS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. AS A
RESULT...HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT MORE MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH
THE COASTAL FRONT THAN WITH THE FRONT...SO HAVE GONE WITH A GRADIENT
FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR RAIN CHANCES ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CHANCE POPS DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM
MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. BY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON HANDLING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
EAST COAST MAKE FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...AND CONTINUED TO
FOLLOW NEWEST WPC PROGS INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. FKL/DUJ MAY
SEE LOWER MVFR CIGS AND SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT IN NW FLOW.
EXPECTING SCT-BKN CU DEVELOPMENT STARTING LATE MORNING
TUESDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS MAINTAINED. GUSTY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT CONTINUE TO BLOW AT
5-10 KNOTS THROUGH TUESDAY.  CL

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH
THURSDAY LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 272345
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
745 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER SHOWERS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH IT
APPEARS THAT OHIO COUNTIES COULD MANAGE TO REMAIN DRY AT THIS POINT
AFTER HAVING MORNING SHOWERS. HAVE KEPT ISOLATED MENTION OF SNOW IN
THE FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS ABOVE 2500FT FOR OCCASIONAL SNOWFLAKES OR
GRAUPEL...AS AT LEAST ONE REPORT OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION HAS COME IN
FROM GREGGS KNOB IN PRESTON COUNTY. SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY
LIMITED BY MIDNIGHT. A TEMPERATURE INVERSION DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT
SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS
SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR...ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WERE NEVER THAT WARM TO BEGIN WITH TODAY.

STILL THINK THAT CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO A GOOD PART OF
TUESDAY...AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVENT ANY MAJOR WARMUPS.
HOWEVER...LATE APRIL SUN ANGLE SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO BRING
TEMPERATURES TO WITHIN A FEW TICKS OF THE 60 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE
THE REGION FALLS UNDER A PINCHER ATTACK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHILE A LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. COMPUTER MODELS HAVE BEEN
ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THESE SYSTEMS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. AS A
RESULT...HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT MORE MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH
THE COASTAL FRONT THAN WITH THE FRONT...SO HAVE GONE WITH A GRADIENT
FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR RAIN CHANCES ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CHANCE POPS DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM
MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. BY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON HANDLING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
EAST COAST MAKE FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...AND CONTINUED TO
FOLLOW NEWEST WPC PROGS INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. FKL/DUJ MAY
SEE LOWER MVFR CIGS AND SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT IN NW FLOW.
EXPECTING SCT-BKN CU DEVELOPMENT STARTING LATE MORNING
TUESDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS MAINTAINED. GUSTY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT CONTINUE TO BLOW AT
5-10 KNOTS THROUGH TUESDAY.  CL

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH
THURSDAY LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 272006
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
406 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FROM THE WEST LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS DEPICTS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. STRONG
UPPER LOW ALOFT CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF MAINE...BUT EXTENDING
WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WV SATELLITE
REVEALS A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE DIVING SE THROUGH WV...AND THIS IS
PROGGED TO PUSH SSE THROUGH THE CWA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. SKIES
HAVE BECOME VARIABLY CLOUDY ACRS THE LOCAL AREA...TEMPORARILY
MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA. THE FORCING
THAT MOVES THROUGH INTO THE EVENING HRS MAY BE ENOUGH TO SET OFF A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DESPITE TEMP/DEW PT DEPRESSIONS ON THE ORDER
OF 25-30 DEGREES. SEEMS LIKE MOST FAVORABLE REGION WOULD STILL BE
ACRS THE NORTH AND EAST...AND WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY OVER THE SW
1/2 OF THE CWA. VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS EVENING BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOS MAINLY 40-45 F...A FEW UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE INTERIOR VA...TO THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 F IMMEDIATE SE
VA/NE NC COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
S/W WILL BE SHEARED OUT/SSE OF THE REGION ON TUE...SHOULD SEE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LESS AFTN CU DEVELOPMENT THAN MON. HIGHS
WILL GET A LITTLE WARMER...THOUGH REMAIN ABOUT 5 DEG BELOW
AVG...MID 60S NEAR THE COAST TO UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 F WELL
INLAND. SFC HI PRES THEN WEAKENS/DRIFT OFF THE CST INTO WED. LO
PRES EXITING SCNTRL CONUS TUE/TUE NGT BEGINS TO TRACK THROUGH THE
GULF CST STATES ON WED...BRINGING GRADUAL INCRS IN CLDNS/MOISTURE
INTO THE MID ATLC RGN. MDLS CONT TO HOLD OFF MOST OF ANY SGFNT
PCPN UNTIL LT WED. WILL MAINTAIN WILL MAINTAIN 30-50% POPS WED
AFTN SW...DRY NE. HI TEMPS WED FM THE M60S SW TO UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S ELSW. DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES IN FROM SSW TO NNE WED
NIGHT...WITH BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF BRINGING WHAT LOOKS TO BE A GOOD
OVERRUNNING EVENT LATER WED NIGHT/THU MORNING TO AT LEAST THE SRN
1/2 OF THE CWA. BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY SOUTH...HIGH CHC NORTH
LATER WED NIGHT. LOWS MAINLY FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
STRONG UPPER LOW NOW PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE SE STATES ON THU...AS SFC LOW INTENSIFIES OFF THE NC COAST.
BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF WARRANTS LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS
THU...ALTHOUGH NOT NECESSARILY GOING TO RAIN ALL DAY AS TRACK OF
UPPER LOW WILL MAKE UNCERTAINTY FAIRLY HIGH AS TO QPF AMOUNTS.
COOLER/MAINLY CLOUDY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LWR-MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW TRAVERSES THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT
THEN PUSHES WELL OUT TO SEA BY LATE FRIDAY. SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN PRIMARILY OVER EASTERN AREAS
FRIDAY MORNING/MIDDAY...BEFORE FINALLY ENDING LATE FRI AFTN OR EVE.
WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS (60%) MOST AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SOLID
CHC POPS (30-40%) ON FRIDAY. DRY WX THEN RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AND AN H5 RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S THU/FRI
NIGHTS...WARMING INTO MID/UPR 50S BY NEXT SUN/MON NIGHTS. HIGHS
FRIDAY FROM THE LOW 60S EASTERN SHORE TO THE UPR 60S FAR SW ZONES.
HIGH TEMPS WARM BY NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE 70S...WITH LOW 80S POSSIBLE
INLAND NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VSBL STLT SHOWED INCREASING CLOUD COVER SPREADING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WITH BASES OF 5 TO 8K FT. A DEEP SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WAS APPROACHING FROM THE N/NW. MOST OF THIS CLOUDINESS
SHOULD CLEAR NEAR SUNSET DUE TO LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. N/NW WINDS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS BECOMING GUSTY AT
TIMES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST
TUESDAY. DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA SHOULD KEEP THE SKY MOSTLY CLEAR.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS. A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
A LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN OVER SRN VA AND NC. RAIN IS FORECAST TO END
ON FRIDAY. PERIODS OF IFR WILL BE PSBL DURING THIS EVENT. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS ONCE AGAIN BY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
WIND SPEEDS TO THE LOCAL AREA BY THIS EVENING AND LASTING THRU TUES
MORNING. SCA`S REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ALL WATERS DURING THIS TIME.
WAVES WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT ON THE BAY TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING
TO 4-5 FT ON THE OCEAN. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TUE AFTN THRU WED NIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS IS LIKELY FOR ALL WATERS THU/FRI AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ633-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...JDM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 272006
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
406 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FROM THE WEST LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS DEPICTS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. STRONG
UPPER LOW ALOFT CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF MAINE...BUT EXTENDING
WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WV SATELLITE
REVEALS A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE DIVING SE THROUGH WV...AND THIS IS
PROGGED TO PUSH SSE THROUGH THE CWA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. SKIES
HAVE BECOME VARIABLY CLOUDY ACRS THE LOCAL AREA...TEMPORARILY
MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA. THE FORCING
THAT MOVES THROUGH INTO THE EVENING HRS MAY BE ENOUGH TO SET OFF A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DESPITE TEMP/DEW PT DEPRESSIONS ON THE ORDER
OF 25-30 DEGREES. SEEMS LIKE MOST FAVORABLE REGION WOULD STILL BE
ACRS THE NORTH AND EAST...AND WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY OVER THE SW
1/2 OF THE CWA. VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS EVENING BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOS MAINLY 40-45 F...A FEW UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE INTERIOR VA...TO THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 F IMMEDIATE SE
VA/NE NC COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
S/W WILL BE SHEARED OUT/SSE OF THE REGION ON TUE...SHOULD SEE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LESS AFTN CU DEVELOPMENT THAN MON. HIGHS
WILL GET A LITTLE WARMER...THOUGH REMAIN ABOUT 5 DEG BELOW
AVG...MID 60S NEAR THE COAST TO UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 F WELL
INLAND. SFC HI PRES THEN WEAKENS/DRIFT OFF THE CST INTO WED. LO
PRES EXITING SCNTRL CONUS TUE/TUE NGT BEGINS TO TRACK THROUGH THE
GULF CST STATES ON WED...BRINGING GRADUAL INCRS IN CLDNS/MOISTURE
INTO THE MID ATLC RGN. MDLS CONT TO HOLD OFF MOST OF ANY SGFNT
PCPN UNTIL LT WED. WILL MAINTAIN WILL MAINTAIN 30-50% POPS WED
AFTN SW...DRY NE. HI TEMPS WED FM THE M60S SW TO UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S ELSW. DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES IN FROM SSW TO NNE WED
NIGHT...WITH BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF BRINGING WHAT LOOKS TO BE A GOOD
OVERRUNNING EVENT LATER WED NIGHT/THU MORNING TO AT LEAST THE SRN
1/2 OF THE CWA. BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY SOUTH...HIGH CHC NORTH
LATER WED NIGHT. LOWS MAINLY FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
STRONG UPPER LOW NOW PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE SE STATES ON THU...AS SFC LOW INTENSIFIES OFF THE NC COAST.
BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF WARRANTS LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS
THU...ALTHOUGH NOT NECESSARILY GOING TO RAIN ALL DAY AS TRACK OF
UPPER LOW WILL MAKE UNCERTAINTY FAIRLY HIGH AS TO QPF AMOUNTS.
COOLER/MAINLY CLOUDY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LWR-MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW TRAVERSES THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT
THEN PUSHES WELL OUT TO SEA BY LATE FRIDAY. SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN PRIMARILY OVER EASTERN AREAS
FRIDAY MORNING/MIDDAY...BEFORE FINALLY ENDING LATE FRI AFTN OR EVE.
WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS (60%) MOST AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SOLID
CHC POPS (30-40%) ON FRIDAY. DRY WX THEN RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AND AN H5 RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S THU/FRI
NIGHTS...WARMING INTO MID/UPR 50S BY NEXT SUN/MON NIGHTS. HIGHS
FRIDAY FROM THE LOW 60S EASTERN SHORE TO THE UPR 60S FAR SW ZONES.
HIGH TEMPS WARM BY NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE 70S...WITH LOW 80S POSSIBLE
INLAND NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VSBL STLT SHOWED INCREASING CLOUD COVER SPREADING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WITH BASES OF 5 TO 8K FT. A DEEP SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WAS APPROACHING FROM THE N/NW. MOST OF THIS CLOUDINESS
SHOULD CLEAR NEAR SUNSET DUE TO LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. N/NW WINDS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS BECOMING GUSTY AT
TIMES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST
TUESDAY. DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA SHOULD KEEP THE SKY MOSTLY CLEAR.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS. A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
A LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN OVER SRN VA AND NC. RAIN IS FORECAST TO END
ON FRIDAY. PERIODS OF IFR WILL BE PSBL DURING THIS EVENT. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS ONCE AGAIN BY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
WIND SPEEDS TO THE LOCAL AREA BY THIS EVENING AND LASTING THRU TUES
MORNING. SCA`S REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ALL WATERS DURING THIS TIME.
WAVES WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT ON THE BAY TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING
TO 4-5 FT ON THE OCEAN. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TUE AFTN THRU WED NIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS IS LIKELY FOR ALL WATERS THU/FRI AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ633-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...JDM




000
FXUS61 KPHI 271930
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
330 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AND COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OUT TO SEA. MEANWHILE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION GRADUALLY FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO PASS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES OUT TO
SEA ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO
BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE AWAY FROM THE
REGION, AS A RESULT, WHAT LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THERE IS
SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE BY LATE THIS EVENING. DESPITE THE RELATIVELY
DRY BOUNDARY LAYER, WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OF 20 DEGREES OR
MORE THIS AFTERNOON, MID LEVELS REMAIN MOIST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS UNTIL SUBSIDENCE BEGINS IN THE WAKE OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
BY TOMORROW, THE LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC WILL BE NEARLY
VERTICALLY STACKED. OUR REGION WILL STAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
NORTHWESTERLY AND NORTHERLY FLOW AS THIS LOW SLOWLY SLIDES EAST
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THICKNESSES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY, THUS
EXPECT A MODEST WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
50S TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WE SHOULD REMAIN UNDER THE OUTER INFLUENCE OF A MID LEVEL LOW OFF
NOVA SCOTIA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AND IT IS FORECAST TO BE
OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD
BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE PERIOD.

A LONG WAVE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED TO BE OVER THE
EASTERN STATES FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST
TO DROP FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD AND
OFF THE COAST ON FRIDAY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA ON WEDNESDAY TO THE WATERS OFF CAPE HATTERAS ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL
GUIDANCE REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES
OUT TO SEA ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WHILE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER SEEMS LIKELY, THE NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH THE SYSTEM REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST. ALSO, AN AREA OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE MID LEVEL LOW. SOME REMNANT OF THAT
ACTIVITY MAY DRIFT TOWARD OUR REGION, AS WELL.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE SUGGESTING A DRY WEDGE POKING DOWN
INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT DUE TO THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW. ALSO, SUBSIDENCE
AROUND THE SYSTEM MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF
LESSENING PRECIPITATION AROUND ITS OUTER EDGE. AS A RESULT, WE
WILL KEEP OUR PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES MAINLY IN THE CHANCE
RANGE.

THE WIND FORECAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM REMAINS A BIT
UNCERTAIN, AS WELL. WHILE THE BACKING FROM AN EAST TO A NORTH WIND
FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY APPEARS LIKELY, THE SPEED FORECAST IS
DEPENDENT UPON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. WE HAVE GONE WITH
A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION FOR THE TIME BEING.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OVER THE WESTERN
NORTH ATLANTIC FOR THE WEEKEND. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY DROP
DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND SUNDAY. THE FEATURE IS ANTICIPATED
TO HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. A RIDGE FROM THE WEST
IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN STATES ON MONDAY.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY, THEN
THEY ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE
TO THE CLOUD COVER, EAST TO NORTH WIND AND POSSIBLE RAIN.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH
MOSTLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS BETWEEN 4000 AND 8000 FT AGL. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS (AROUND 2000 FT AGL) DEVELOPING
PRIMARILY WEST OF THE FALL LINE, INCLUDING KRDG AND KABE, BETWEEN
09 AND 15Z. HOWEVER, GIVEN HOW DRY THE AIR MASS IS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER, THINK THIS IS VERY UNLIKELY. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY
AND GUSTY THROUGH SUNSET, THEN DECREASE SOME THROUGH 12Z. AFTER
12Z, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE NORTHERLY AND INCREASE ONCE AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.
CONDITIONS MAY DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE AT TIMES. AN EAST TO
NORTHEAST WIND AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH ITS
POTENTIAL IMPACT ON OPERATIONS AT KPHL.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
EVENING, WITH WIND GUSTS AT OR JUST ABOVE 25KT. WIND GUSTS SHOULD
BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY MID TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE WIND SPEEDS
DECREASE, SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 5 FT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND FOR WAVES ON
OUR OCEAN WATERS IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET. THE WIND DIRECTION IS
ANTICIPATED TO BACK GRADUALLY FROM THE EAST TO THE NORTH. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS IF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OCEAN
TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERION. HOWEVER, WAVE HEIGHTS ON
OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY REMAIN AROUND OR ABOVE 5 FEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NORTH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING ABOVE 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 30
PERCENT ARE POSSIBLE PRIMARILY OVER NJ, SOUTHEASTERN PA (SOUTHEAST
OF THE POCONOS), AND EXTREME NORTHERN DELMARVA. SINCE CONDITIONS
WILL BE MARGINAL AT WORST, WILL WAIT FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE FULL
SUITE OF MODEL RUNS BEFORE MAKING A DECISION IF TO ISSUE AN SPS OR
RFW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/JOHNSON
MARINE...IOVINO/JOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...JOHNSON



000
FXUS61 KPHI 271930
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
330 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AND COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OUT TO SEA. MEANWHILE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION GRADUALLY FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO PASS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES OUT TO
SEA ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO
BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE AWAY FROM THE
REGION, AS A RESULT, WHAT LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THERE IS
SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE BY LATE THIS EVENING. DESPITE THE RELATIVELY
DRY BOUNDARY LAYER, WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OF 20 DEGREES OR
MORE THIS AFTERNOON, MID LEVELS REMAIN MOIST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS UNTIL SUBSIDENCE BEGINS IN THE WAKE OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
BY TOMORROW, THE LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC WILL BE NEARLY
VERTICALLY STACKED. OUR REGION WILL STAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
NORTHWESTERLY AND NORTHERLY FLOW AS THIS LOW SLOWLY SLIDES EAST
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THICKNESSES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY, THUS
EXPECT A MODEST WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
50S TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WE SHOULD REMAIN UNDER THE OUTER INFLUENCE OF A MID LEVEL LOW OFF
NOVA SCOTIA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AND IT IS FORECAST TO BE
OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD
BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE PERIOD.

A LONG WAVE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED TO BE OVER THE
EASTERN STATES FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST
TO DROP FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD AND
OFF THE COAST ON FRIDAY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA ON WEDNESDAY TO THE WATERS OFF CAPE HATTERAS ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL
GUIDANCE REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES
OUT TO SEA ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WHILE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER SEEMS LIKELY, THE NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH THE SYSTEM REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST. ALSO, AN AREA OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE MID LEVEL LOW. SOME REMNANT OF THAT
ACTIVITY MAY DRIFT TOWARD OUR REGION, AS WELL.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE SUGGESTING A DRY WEDGE POKING DOWN
INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT DUE TO THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW. ALSO, SUBSIDENCE
AROUND THE SYSTEM MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF
LESSENING PRECIPITATION AROUND ITS OUTER EDGE. AS A RESULT, WE
WILL KEEP OUR PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES MAINLY IN THE CHANCE
RANGE.

THE WIND FORECAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM REMAINS A BIT
UNCERTAIN, AS WELL. WHILE THE BACKING FROM AN EAST TO A NORTH WIND
FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY APPEARS LIKELY, THE SPEED FORECAST IS
DEPENDENT UPON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. WE HAVE GONE WITH
A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION FOR THE TIME BEING.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OVER THE WESTERN
NORTH ATLANTIC FOR THE WEEKEND. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY DROP
DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND SUNDAY. THE FEATURE IS ANTICIPATED
TO HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. A RIDGE FROM THE WEST
IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN STATES ON MONDAY.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY, THEN
THEY ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE
TO THE CLOUD COVER, EAST TO NORTH WIND AND POSSIBLE RAIN.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH
MOSTLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS BETWEEN 4000 AND 8000 FT AGL. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS (AROUND 2000 FT AGL) DEVELOPING
PRIMARILY WEST OF THE FALL LINE, INCLUDING KRDG AND KABE, BETWEEN
09 AND 15Z. HOWEVER, GIVEN HOW DRY THE AIR MASS IS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER, THINK THIS IS VERY UNLIKELY. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY
AND GUSTY THROUGH SUNSET, THEN DECREASE SOME THROUGH 12Z. AFTER
12Z, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE NORTHERLY AND INCREASE ONCE AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.
CONDITIONS MAY DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE AT TIMES. AN EAST TO
NORTHEAST WIND AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH ITS
POTENTIAL IMPACT ON OPERATIONS AT KPHL.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
EVENING, WITH WIND GUSTS AT OR JUST ABOVE 25KT. WIND GUSTS SHOULD
BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY MID TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE WIND SPEEDS
DECREASE, SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 5 FT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND FOR WAVES ON
OUR OCEAN WATERS IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET. THE WIND DIRECTION IS
ANTICIPATED TO BACK GRADUALLY FROM THE EAST TO THE NORTH. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS IF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OCEAN
TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERION. HOWEVER, WAVE HEIGHTS ON
OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY REMAIN AROUND OR ABOVE 5 FEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NORTH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING ABOVE 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 30
PERCENT ARE POSSIBLE PRIMARILY OVER NJ, SOUTHEASTERN PA (SOUTHEAST
OF THE POCONOS), AND EXTREME NORTHERN DELMARVA. SINCE CONDITIONS
WILL BE MARGINAL AT WORST, WILL WAIT FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE FULL
SUITE OF MODEL RUNS BEFORE MAKING A DECISION IF TO ISSUE AN SPS OR
RFW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/JOHNSON
MARINE...IOVINO/JOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...JOHNSON




000
FXUS61 KPHI 271930
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
330 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AND COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OUT TO SEA. MEANWHILE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION GRADUALLY FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO PASS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES OUT TO
SEA ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO
BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE AWAY FROM THE
REGION, AS A RESULT, WHAT LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THERE IS
SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE BY LATE THIS EVENING. DESPITE THE RELATIVELY
DRY BOUNDARY LAYER, WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OF 20 DEGREES OR
MORE THIS AFTERNOON, MID LEVELS REMAIN MOIST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS UNTIL SUBSIDENCE BEGINS IN THE WAKE OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
BY TOMORROW, THE LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC WILL BE NEARLY
VERTICALLY STACKED. OUR REGION WILL STAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
NORTHWESTERLY AND NORTHERLY FLOW AS THIS LOW SLOWLY SLIDES EAST
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THICKNESSES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY, THUS
EXPECT A MODEST WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
50S TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WE SHOULD REMAIN UNDER THE OUTER INFLUENCE OF A MID LEVEL LOW OFF
NOVA SCOTIA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AND IT IS FORECAST TO BE
OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD
BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE PERIOD.

A LONG WAVE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED TO BE OVER THE
EASTERN STATES FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST
TO DROP FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD AND
OFF THE COAST ON FRIDAY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA ON WEDNESDAY TO THE WATERS OFF CAPE HATTERAS ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL
GUIDANCE REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES
OUT TO SEA ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WHILE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER SEEMS LIKELY, THE NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH THE SYSTEM REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST. ALSO, AN AREA OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE MID LEVEL LOW. SOME REMNANT OF THAT
ACTIVITY MAY DRIFT TOWARD OUR REGION, AS WELL.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE SUGGESTING A DRY WEDGE POKING DOWN
INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT DUE TO THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW. ALSO, SUBSIDENCE
AROUND THE SYSTEM MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF
LESSENING PRECIPITATION AROUND ITS OUTER EDGE. AS A RESULT, WE
WILL KEEP OUR PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES MAINLY IN THE CHANCE
RANGE.

THE WIND FORECAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM REMAINS A BIT
UNCERTAIN, AS WELL. WHILE THE BACKING FROM AN EAST TO A NORTH WIND
FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY APPEARS LIKELY, THE SPEED FORECAST IS
DEPENDENT UPON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. WE HAVE GONE WITH
A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION FOR THE TIME BEING.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OVER THE WESTERN
NORTH ATLANTIC FOR THE WEEKEND. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY DROP
DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND SUNDAY. THE FEATURE IS ANTICIPATED
TO HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. A RIDGE FROM THE WEST
IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN STATES ON MONDAY.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY, THEN
THEY ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE
TO THE CLOUD COVER, EAST TO NORTH WIND AND POSSIBLE RAIN.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH
MOSTLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS BETWEEN 4000 AND 8000 FT AGL. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS (AROUND 2000 FT AGL) DEVELOPING
PRIMARILY WEST OF THE FALL LINE, INCLUDING KRDG AND KABE, BETWEEN
09 AND 15Z. HOWEVER, GIVEN HOW DRY THE AIR MASS IS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER, THINK THIS IS VERY UNLIKELY. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY
AND GUSTY THROUGH SUNSET, THEN DECREASE SOME THROUGH 12Z. AFTER
12Z, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE NORTHERLY AND INCREASE ONCE AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.
CONDITIONS MAY DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE AT TIMES. AN EAST TO
NORTHEAST WIND AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH ITS
POTENTIAL IMPACT ON OPERATIONS AT KPHL.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
EVENING, WITH WIND GUSTS AT OR JUST ABOVE 25KT. WIND GUSTS SHOULD
BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY MID TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE WIND SPEEDS
DECREASE, SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 5 FT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND FOR WAVES ON
OUR OCEAN WATERS IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET. THE WIND DIRECTION IS
ANTICIPATED TO BACK GRADUALLY FROM THE EAST TO THE NORTH. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS IF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OCEAN
TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERION. HOWEVER, WAVE HEIGHTS ON
OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY REMAIN AROUND OR ABOVE 5 FEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NORTH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING ABOVE 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 30
PERCENT ARE POSSIBLE PRIMARILY OVER NJ, SOUTHEASTERN PA (SOUTHEAST
OF THE POCONOS), AND EXTREME NORTHERN DELMARVA. SINCE CONDITIONS
WILL BE MARGINAL AT WORST, WILL WAIT FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE FULL
SUITE OF MODEL RUNS BEFORE MAKING A DECISION IF TO ISSUE AN SPS OR
RFW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/JOHNSON
MARINE...IOVINO/JOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...JOHNSON




000
FXUS61 KPHI 271930
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
330 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AND COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OUT TO SEA. MEANWHILE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION GRADUALLY FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO PASS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES OUT TO
SEA ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO
BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE AWAY FROM THE
REGION, AS A RESULT, WHAT LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THERE IS
SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE BY LATE THIS EVENING. DESPITE THE RELATIVELY
DRY BOUNDARY LAYER, WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OF 20 DEGREES OR
MORE THIS AFTERNOON, MID LEVELS REMAIN MOIST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS UNTIL SUBSIDENCE BEGINS IN THE WAKE OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
BY TOMORROW, THE LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC WILL BE NEARLY
VERTICALLY STACKED. OUR REGION WILL STAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
NORTHWESTERLY AND NORTHERLY FLOW AS THIS LOW SLOWLY SLIDES EAST
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THICKNESSES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY, THUS
EXPECT A MODEST WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
50S TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WE SHOULD REMAIN UNDER THE OUTER INFLUENCE OF A MID LEVEL LOW OFF
NOVA SCOTIA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AND IT IS FORECAST TO BE
OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD
BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE PERIOD.

A LONG WAVE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED TO BE OVER THE
EASTERN STATES FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST
TO DROP FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD AND
OFF THE COAST ON FRIDAY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA ON WEDNESDAY TO THE WATERS OFF CAPE HATTERAS ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL
GUIDANCE REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES
OUT TO SEA ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WHILE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER SEEMS LIKELY, THE NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH THE SYSTEM REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST. ALSO, AN AREA OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE MID LEVEL LOW. SOME REMNANT OF THAT
ACTIVITY MAY DRIFT TOWARD OUR REGION, AS WELL.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE SUGGESTING A DRY WEDGE POKING DOWN
INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT DUE TO THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW. ALSO, SUBSIDENCE
AROUND THE SYSTEM MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF
LESSENING PRECIPITATION AROUND ITS OUTER EDGE. AS A RESULT, WE
WILL KEEP OUR PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES MAINLY IN THE CHANCE
RANGE.

THE WIND FORECAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM REMAINS A BIT
UNCERTAIN, AS WELL. WHILE THE BACKING FROM AN EAST TO A NORTH WIND
FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY APPEARS LIKELY, THE SPEED FORECAST IS
DEPENDENT UPON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. WE HAVE GONE WITH
A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION FOR THE TIME BEING.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OVER THE WESTERN
NORTH ATLANTIC FOR THE WEEKEND. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY DROP
DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND SUNDAY. THE FEATURE IS ANTICIPATED
TO HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. A RIDGE FROM THE WEST
IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN STATES ON MONDAY.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY, THEN
THEY ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE
TO THE CLOUD COVER, EAST TO NORTH WIND AND POSSIBLE RAIN.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH
MOSTLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS BETWEEN 4000 AND 8000 FT AGL. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS (AROUND 2000 FT AGL) DEVELOPING
PRIMARILY WEST OF THE FALL LINE, INCLUDING KRDG AND KABE, BETWEEN
09 AND 15Z. HOWEVER, GIVEN HOW DRY THE AIR MASS IS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER, THINK THIS IS VERY UNLIKELY. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY
AND GUSTY THROUGH SUNSET, THEN DECREASE SOME THROUGH 12Z. AFTER
12Z, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE NORTHERLY AND INCREASE ONCE AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.
CONDITIONS MAY DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE AT TIMES. AN EAST TO
NORTHEAST WIND AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH ITS
POTENTIAL IMPACT ON OPERATIONS AT KPHL.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
EVENING, WITH WIND GUSTS AT OR JUST ABOVE 25KT. WIND GUSTS SHOULD
BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY MID TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE WIND SPEEDS
DECREASE, SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 5 FT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND FOR WAVES ON
OUR OCEAN WATERS IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET. THE WIND DIRECTION IS
ANTICIPATED TO BACK GRADUALLY FROM THE EAST TO THE NORTH. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS IF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OCEAN
TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERION. HOWEVER, WAVE HEIGHTS ON
OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY REMAIN AROUND OR ABOVE 5 FEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NORTH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING ABOVE 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 30
PERCENT ARE POSSIBLE PRIMARILY OVER NJ, SOUTHEASTERN PA (SOUTHEAST
OF THE POCONOS), AND EXTREME NORTHERN DELMARVA. SINCE CONDITIONS
WILL BE MARGINAL AT WORST, WILL WAIT FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE FULL
SUITE OF MODEL RUNS BEFORE MAKING A DECISION IF TO ISSUE AN SPS OR
RFW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/JOHNSON
MARINE...IOVINO/JOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...JOHNSON




000
FXUS61 KPHI 271930
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
330 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AND COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OUT TO SEA. MEANWHILE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION GRADUALLY FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO PASS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES OUT TO
SEA ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO
BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE AWAY FROM THE
REGION, AS A RESULT, WHAT LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THERE IS
SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE BY LATE THIS EVENING. DESPITE THE RELATIVELY
DRY BOUNDARY LAYER, WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OF 20 DEGREES OR
MORE THIS AFTERNOON, MID LEVELS REMAIN MOIST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS UNTIL SUBSIDENCE BEGINS IN THE WAKE OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
BY TOMORROW, THE LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC WILL BE NEARLY
VERTICALLY STACKED. OUR REGION WILL STAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
NORTHWESTERLY AND NORTHERLY FLOW AS THIS LOW SLOWLY SLIDES EAST
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THICKNESSES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY, THUS
EXPECT A MODEST WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
50S TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WE SHOULD REMAIN UNDER THE OUTER INFLUENCE OF A MID LEVEL LOW OFF
NOVA SCOTIA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AND IT IS FORECAST TO BE
OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD
BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE PERIOD.

A LONG WAVE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED TO BE OVER THE
EASTERN STATES FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST
TO DROP FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD AND
OFF THE COAST ON FRIDAY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA ON WEDNESDAY TO THE WATERS OFF CAPE HATTERAS ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL
GUIDANCE REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES
OUT TO SEA ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WHILE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER SEEMS LIKELY, THE NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH THE SYSTEM REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST. ALSO, AN AREA OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE MID LEVEL LOW. SOME REMNANT OF THAT
ACTIVITY MAY DRIFT TOWARD OUR REGION, AS WELL.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE SUGGESTING A DRY WEDGE POKING DOWN
INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT DUE TO THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW. ALSO, SUBSIDENCE
AROUND THE SYSTEM MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF
LESSENING PRECIPITATION AROUND ITS OUTER EDGE. AS A RESULT, WE
WILL KEEP OUR PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES MAINLY IN THE CHANCE
RANGE.

THE WIND FORECAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM REMAINS A BIT
UNCERTAIN, AS WELL. WHILE THE BACKING FROM AN EAST TO A NORTH WIND
FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY APPEARS LIKELY, THE SPEED FORECAST IS
DEPENDENT UPON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. WE HAVE GONE WITH
A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION FOR THE TIME BEING.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OVER THE WESTERN
NORTH ATLANTIC FOR THE WEEKEND. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY DROP
DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND SUNDAY. THE FEATURE IS ANTICIPATED
TO HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. A RIDGE FROM THE WEST
IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN STATES ON MONDAY.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY, THEN
THEY ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE
TO THE CLOUD COVER, EAST TO NORTH WIND AND POSSIBLE RAIN.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH
MOSTLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS BETWEEN 4000 AND 8000 FT AGL. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS (AROUND 2000 FT AGL) DEVELOPING
PRIMARILY WEST OF THE FALL LINE, INCLUDING KRDG AND KABE, BETWEEN
09 AND 15Z. HOWEVER, GIVEN HOW DRY THE AIR MASS IS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER, THINK THIS IS VERY UNLIKELY. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY
AND GUSTY THROUGH SUNSET, THEN DECREASE SOME THROUGH 12Z. AFTER
12Z, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE NORTHERLY AND INCREASE ONCE AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.
CONDITIONS MAY DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE AT TIMES. AN EAST TO
NORTHEAST WIND AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH ITS
POTENTIAL IMPACT ON OPERATIONS AT KPHL.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
EVENING, WITH WIND GUSTS AT OR JUST ABOVE 25KT. WIND GUSTS SHOULD
BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY MID TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE WIND SPEEDS
DECREASE, SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 5 FT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND FOR WAVES ON
OUR OCEAN WATERS IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET. THE WIND DIRECTION IS
ANTICIPATED TO BACK GRADUALLY FROM THE EAST TO THE NORTH. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS IF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OCEAN
TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERION. HOWEVER, WAVE HEIGHTS ON
OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY REMAIN AROUND OR ABOVE 5 FEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NORTH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING ABOVE 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 30
PERCENT ARE POSSIBLE PRIMARILY OVER NJ, SOUTHEASTERN PA (SOUTHEAST
OF THE POCONOS), AND EXTREME NORTHERN DELMARVA. SINCE CONDITIONS
WILL BE MARGINAL AT WORST, WILL WAIT FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE FULL
SUITE OF MODEL RUNS BEFORE MAKING A DECISION IF TO ISSUE AN SPS OR
RFW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/JOHNSON
MARINE...IOVINO/JOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...JOHNSON




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271907
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
307 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER SHOWERS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH IT
APPEARS THAT OHIO COUNTIES COULD MANAGE TO REMAIN DRY AT THIS POINT
AFTER HAVING MORNING SHOWERS. HAVE KEPT ISOLATED MENTION OF SNOW IN
THE FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS ABOVE 2500FT FOR OCCASIONAL SNOWFLAKES OR
GRAUPEL...AS AT LEAST ONE REPORT OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION HAS COME IN
FROM GREGGS KNOB IN PRESTON COUNTY. SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY
LIMITED BY MIDNIGHT. A TEMPERATURE INVERSION DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT
SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS
SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR...ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WERE NEVER THAT WARM TO BEGIN WITH TODAY.

STILL THINK THAT CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO A GOOD PART OF
TUESDAY...AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVENT ANY MAJOR WARMUPS.
HOWEVER...LATE APRIL SUN ANGLE SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO BRING
TEMPERATURES TO WITHIN A FEW TICKS OF THE 60 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE
THE REGION FALLS UNDER A PINCHER ATTACK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHILE A LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. COMPUTER MODELS HAVE BEEN
ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THESE SYSTEMS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. AS A
RESULT...HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT MORE MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH
THE COASTAL FRONT THAN WITH THE FRONT...SO HAVE GONE WITH A GRADIENT
FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR RAIN CHANCES ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CHANCE POPS DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM
MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. BY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON HANDLING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
EAST COAST MAKE FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...AND CONTINUED TO
FOLLOW NEWEST WPC PROGS INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED UNTIL SHORTWAVE AND DEEPER MOISTURE
SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST LATER TONIGHT...WITH QUICKER IMPROVEMENT
CLOSER KZZV TO KHLG. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EARLY TUESDAY AS DRIER
AIR WORKS INTO REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH
THURSDAY LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271907
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
307 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER SHOWERS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH IT
APPEARS THAT OHIO COUNTIES COULD MANAGE TO REMAIN DRY AT THIS POINT
AFTER HAVING MORNING SHOWERS. HAVE KEPT ISOLATED MENTION OF SNOW IN
THE FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS ABOVE 2500FT FOR OCCASIONAL SNOWFLAKES OR
GRAUPEL...AS AT LEAST ONE REPORT OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION HAS COME IN
FROM GREGGS KNOB IN PRESTON COUNTY. SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY
LIMITED BY MIDNIGHT. A TEMPERATURE INVERSION DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT
SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS
SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR...ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WERE NEVER THAT WARM TO BEGIN WITH TODAY.

STILL THINK THAT CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO A GOOD PART OF
TUESDAY...AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVENT ANY MAJOR WARMUPS.
HOWEVER...LATE APRIL SUN ANGLE SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO BRING
TEMPERATURES TO WITHIN A FEW TICKS OF THE 60 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE
THE REGION FALLS UNDER A PINCHER ATTACK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHILE A LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. COMPUTER MODELS HAVE BEEN
ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THESE SYSTEMS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. AS A
RESULT...HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT MORE MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH
THE COASTAL FRONT THAN WITH THE FRONT...SO HAVE GONE WITH A GRADIENT
FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR RAIN CHANCES ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CHANCE POPS DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM
MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. BY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON HANDLING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
EAST COAST MAKE FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...AND CONTINUED TO
FOLLOW NEWEST WPC PROGS INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED UNTIL SHORTWAVE AND DEEPER MOISTURE
SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST LATER TONIGHT...WITH QUICKER IMPROVEMENT
CLOSER KZZV TO KHLG. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EARLY TUESDAY AS DRIER
AIR WORKS INTO REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH
THURSDAY LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271907
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
307 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER SHOWERS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH IT
APPEARS THAT OHIO COUNTIES COULD MANAGE TO REMAIN DRY AT THIS POINT
AFTER HAVING MORNING SHOWERS. HAVE KEPT ISOLATED MENTION OF SNOW IN
THE FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS ABOVE 2500FT FOR OCCASIONAL SNOWFLAKES OR
GRAUPEL...AS AT LEAST ONE REPORT OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION HAS COME IN
FROM GREGGS KNOB IN PRESTON COUNTY. SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY
LIMITED BY MIDNIGHT. A TEMPERATURE INVERSION DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT
SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS
SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR...ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WERE NEVER THAT WARM TO BEGIN WITH TODAY.

STILL THINK THAT CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO A GOOD PART OF
TUESDAY...AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVENT ANY MAJOR WARMUPS.
HOWEVER...LATE APRIL SUN ANGLE SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO BRING
TEMPERATURES TO WITHIN A FEW TICKS OF THE 60 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE
THE REGION FALLS UNDER A PINCHER ATTACK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHILE A LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. COMPUTER MODELS HAVE BEEN
ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THESE SYSTEMS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. AS A
RESULT...HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT MORE MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH
THE COASTAL FRONT THAN WITH THE FRONT...SO HAVE GONE WITH A GRADIENT
FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR RAIN CHANCES ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CHANCE POPS DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM
MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. BY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON HANDLING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
EAST COAST MAKE FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...AND CONTINUED TO
FOLLOW NEWEST WPC PROGS INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED UNTIL SHORTWAVE AND DEEPER MOISTURE
SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST LATER TONIGHT...WITH QUICKER IMPROVEMENT
CLOSER KZZV TO KHLG. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EARLY TUESDAY AS DRIER
AIR WORKS INTO REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH
THURSDAY LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271907
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
307 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER SHOWERS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH IT
APPEARS THAT OHIO COUNTIES COULD MANAGE TO REMAIN DRY AT THIS POINT
AFTER HAVING MORNING SHOWERS. HAVE KEPT ISOLATED MENTION OF SNOW IN
THE FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS ABOVE 2500FT FOR OCCASIONAL SNOWFLAKES OR
GRAUPEL...AS AT LEAST ONE REPORT OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION HAS COME IN
FROM GREGGS KNOB IN PRESTON COUNTY. SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY
LIMITED BY MIDNIGHT. A TEMPERATURE INVERSION DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT
SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS
SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR...ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WERE NEVER THAT WARM TO BEGIN WITH TODAY.

STILL THINK THAT CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO A GOOD PART OF
TUESDAY...AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVENT ANY MAJOR WARMUPS.
HOWEVER...LATE APRIL SUN ANGLE SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO BRING
TEMPERATURES TO WITHIN A FEW TICKS OF THE 60 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE
THE REGION FALLS UNDER A PINCHER ATTACK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHILE A LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. COMPUTER MODELS HAVE BEEN
ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THESE SYSTEMS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. AS A
RESULT...HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT MORE MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH
THE COASTAL FRONT THAN WITH THE FRONT...SO HAVE GONE WITH A GRADIENT
FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR RAIN CHANCES ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CHANCE POPS DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM
MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. BY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON HANDLING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
EAST COAST MAKE FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...AND CONTINUED TO
FOLLOW NEWEST WPC PROGS INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED UNTIL SHORTWAVE AND DEEPER MOISTURE
SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST LATER TONIGHT...WITH QUICKER IMPROVEMENT
CLOSER KZZV TO KHLG. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EARLY TUESDAY AS DRIER
AIR WORKS INTO REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH
THURSDAY LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KLWX 271846
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
246 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN. LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE
REGION MIDWEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LVL LOW REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THROUGH TONIGHT...EXTENDING BACK TO THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTH INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC. A PASSING SHORTWAVE THIS MORNING BROUGHT BKN-OVC
SKY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX CURRENTLY
NOTED IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER OH/WV/PA WILL DIG SOUTH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTN/EVENING. THIS ENERGY COMBINING
WITH MINIMAL INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN ISO-SCT RAIN
SHOWERS...WITH LIGHT SNOW MIXING IN AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

ANY PCPN THAT DOES OCCUR WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING...WITH THE
ENTIRE AREA BCMG DRY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. ONLY OTHER
CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WAS THE FROST POTENTIAL...MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY AREAS. CURRENT FORECAST DROPS OVERNIGHT
LOWS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S MAINLY...WITH ISOLATED SPOTS NEARING
FREEZING. THINKING THE WINDS SHOULD STAY ELEVATED ENOUGH AND THE
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT LATE ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS AS FORECASTED.
HOWEVER...IF THE TREND THIS EVENING LOOKS TO HAVE CLEARING QUICKER
AND/OR WINDS DROPPING MORE...COULD SEE THE NEED FOR A FROST ADVISORY
IN AUGUSTA/ROCKINGHAM/NELSON. COUNTIES TO THE WEST ARE YET TO ENTER
THE GROWING SEASON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LVL LOW PIVOTS OFF TO THE EAST TUES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN AT THE SFC...KEEPING THE AREA DRY. SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL HELP TO CLEAR SKIES TUES
MORNING...BUT COULD SEE SCT CU BY TUES AFTN. DOWNSLOPING WINDS
UNDER THE SCT SKIES WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
LOWS TUES NIGHT STAY IN THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA...LIMITING
THE FROST CONCERN.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND BE REPLACED BY A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE APPALACHIANS. A SECOND AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AS IT PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN FL
AND MOVE OFFSHORE. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE DAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF
THE HIGHLANDS...THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL
FOOTHILLS. OTHERWISE DRY WX EXPECTED. RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGH OFFSHORE. TEMPS SHOULD BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOW 70S.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE MTNS WED NIGHT. THE LOW THAT WAS
OVER FL DURING THE DAY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AND STRENGTHEN. THERE
REMAINS SOME SPREAD AMONG MODELS ABOUT THE STRENGTH AND TRAJECTORY
OF THIS SYSTEM...AND THEREFORE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT TIMING AND LOCATION
OF RAINFALL ONSET OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE TIME BEING. LOWS FOR MOST AREAS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S...WITH LOW TO MID 50S LIKELY ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS RATHER LARGE WITH TRACK OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL OR EVEN MODEL CYCLE
YOU CHOOSE...OUR AREA COULD SEE ANYWHERE FROM A COUPLE OF INCHES
TO LESS THAN A HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. 00Z GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH TRACK...WITH THE LOW HUGGING THE COASTLINE AS IT MOVES TO OUR
EAST/NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...12Z GFS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH 00Z
ECMWF...AND KEEPS LOW FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE THAT OVERALL IMPACTS TO
OUR AREA ARE LESS. FOR NOW...LEANED MORE TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF/12Z
GFS SOLUTION DUE BETTER INITIALIZATIONS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
CLOSELY AS A SMALL CHANGE IN THE TRACK COULD SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE
IMPACTS FOR OUR AREA.

REGARDLESS OF WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS THIS WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO AND PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE TAF PERIOD. BRIEF RAIN SHOWER PSBL THIS
AFTN...MAINLY 19-22Z...WITH MINIMAL CATEGORICAL IMPACTS. OCNL
GUSTS PSBL LATE THIS AFTN...WITH THE GUSTS ENDING 23-02Z THIS
EVENING. OCNL GUSTS WILL BE PSBL AGAIN AT KBWI/KMTN ON TUES.

PRIMARILY VFR WEDNESDAY. LIGHT NW WINDS IN THE MORNING
BECOME SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTN. PSBL SUB-VFR WITH POTENTIAL RAIN DVLPG
WED NIGHT. WINDS S-SW LESS THAN 10KT.

UNCERTAINTY REMAINS LARGE WITH TRACK AND IMPACT OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG COAST ON THU. THE MORE THE LOW HUGS THE
COAST...THE GREATER THE AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE.
REGARDLESS...WOULD EXPECT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN ANY SHOWERS THAT
OCCUR THU INTO FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALL WATERS...THEN
CONTINUES ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND SOUTHERN TIDAL POTOMAC THROUGH
TUES AFTN. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS BY TUES EVENING.

LIGHT NW WINDS ON THE WATERS WED MORNING...BECOMING S-SE 5-10KT BY
THE AFTN. NO ADVISORIES XPCTD. LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE INTO THE
ATLANTIC OFF THE FL COAST WED NIGHT AND STRENGTHEN AS IT BEGINS TO
MOVE TO THE NORTH. WINDS BECOME SW AROUND 10KT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SOME GUSTS UP TO 15KT. LIGHT RAIN PSBL.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE COAST THU INTO FRI HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE PERIODS OF SCA OR GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS/KS
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...SEARS/KS/MSE
MARINE...SEARS/KS/MSE



000
FXUS61 KLWX 271846
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
246 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN. LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE
REGION MIDWEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LVL LOW REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THROUGH TONIGHT...EXTENDING BACK TO THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTH INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC. A PASSING SHORTWAVE THIS MORNING BROUGHT BKN-OVC
SKY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX CURRENTLY
NOTED IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER OH/WV/PA WILL DIG SOUTH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTN/EVENING. THIS ENERGY COMBINING
WITH MINIMAL INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN ISO-SCT RAIN
SHOWERS...WITH LIGHT SNOW MIXING IN AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

ANY PCPN THAT DOES OCCUR WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING...WITH THE
ENTIRE AREA BCMG DRY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. ONLY OTHER
CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WAS THE FROST POTENTIAL...MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY AREAS. CURRENT FORECAST DROPS OVERNIGHT
LOWS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S MAINLY...WITH ISOLATED SPOTS NEARING
FREEZING. THINKING THE WINDS SHOULD STAY ELEVATED ENOUGH AND THE
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT LATE ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS AS FORECASTED.
HOWEVER...IF THE TREND THIS EVENING LOOKS TO HAVE CLEARING QUICKER
AND/OR WINDS DROPPING MORE...COULD SEE THE NEED FOR A FROST ADVISORY
IN AUGUSTA/ROCKINGHAM/NELSON. COUNTIES TO THE WEST ARE YET TO ENTER
THE GROWING SEASON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LVL LOW PIVOTS OFF TO THE EAST TUES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN AT THE SFC...KEEPING THE AREA DRY. SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL HELP TO CLEAR SKIES TUES
MORNING...BUT COULD SEE SCT CU BY TUES AFTN. DOWNSLOPING WINDS
UNDER THE SCT SKIES WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
LOWS TUES NIGHT STAY IN THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA...LIMITING
THE FROST CONCERN.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND BE REPLACED BY A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE APPALACHIANS. A SECOND AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AS IT PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN FL
AND MOVE OFFSHORE. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE DAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF
THE HIGHLANDS...THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL
FOOTHILLS. OTHERWISE DRY WX EXPECTED. RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGH OFFSHORE. TEMPS SHOULD BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOW 70S.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE MTNS WED NIGHT. THE LOW THAT WAS
OVER FL DURING THE DAY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AND STRENGTHEN. THERE
REMAINS SOME SPREAD AMONG MODELS ABOUT THE STRENGTH AND TRAJECTORY
OF THIS SYSTEM...AND THEREFORE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT TIMING AND LOCATION
OF RAINFALL ONSET OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE TIME BEING. LOWS FOR MOST AREAS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S...WITH LOW TO MID 50S LIKELY ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS RATHER LARGE WITH TRACK OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL OR EVEN MODEL CYCLE
YOU CHOOSE...OUR AREA COULD SEE ANYWHERE FROM A COUPLE OF INCHES
TO LESS THAN A HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. 00Z GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH TRACK...WITH THE LOW HUGGING THE COASTLINE AS IT MOVES TO OUR
EAST/NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...12Z GFS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH 00Z
ECMWF...AND KEEPS LOW FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE THAT OVERALL IMPACTS TO
OUR AREA ARE LESS. FOR NOW...LEANED MORE TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF/12Z
GFS SOLUTION DUE BETTER INITIALIZATIONS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
CLOSELY AS A SMALL CHANGE IN THE TRACK COULD SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE
IMPACTS FOR OUR AREA.

REGARDLESS OF WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS THIS WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO AND PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE TAF PERIOD. BRIEF RAIN SHOWER PSBL THIS
AFTN...MAINLY 19-22Z...WITH MINIMAL CATEGORICAL IMPACTS. OCNL
GUSTS PSBL LATE THIS AFTN...WITH THE GUSTS ENDING 23-02Z THIS
EVENING. OCNL GUSTS WILL BE PSBL AGAIN AT KBWI/KMTN ON TUES.

PRIMARILY VFR WEDNESDAY. LIGHT NW WINDS IN THE MORNING
BECOME SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTN. PSBL SUB-VFR WITH POTENTIAL RAIN DVLPG
WED NIGHT. WINDS S-SW LESS THAN 10KT.

UNCERTAINTY REMAINS LARGE WITH TRACK AND IMPACT OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG COAST ON THU. THE MORE THE LOW HUGS THE
COAST...THE GREATER THE AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE.
REGARDLESS...WOULD EXPECT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN ANY SHOWERS THAT
OCCUR THU INTO FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALL WATERS...THEN
CONTINUES ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND SOUTHERN TIDAL POTOMAC THROUGH
TUES AFTN. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS BY TUES EVENING.

LIGHT NW WINDS ON THE WATERS WED MORNING...BECOMING S-SE 5-10KT BY
THE AFTN. NO ADVISORIES XPCTD. LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE INTO THE
ATLANTIC OFF THE FL COAST WED NIGHT AND STRENGTHEN AS IT BEGINS TO
MOVE TO THE NORTH. WINDS BECOME SW AROUND 10KT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SOME GUSTS UP TO 15KT. LIGHT RAIN PSBL.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE COAST THU INTO FRI HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE PERIODS OF SCA OR GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS/KS
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...SEARS/KS/MSE
MARINE...SEARS/KS/MSE




000
FXUS61 KLWX 271846
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
246 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN. LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE
REGION MIDWEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LVL LOW REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THROUGH TONIGHT...EXTENDING BACK TO THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTH INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC. A PASSING SHORTWAVE THIS MORNING BROUGHT BKN-OVC
SKY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX CURRENTLY
NOTED IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER OH/WV/PA WILL DIG SOUTH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTN/EVENING. THIS ENERGY COMBINING
WITH MINIMAL INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN ISO-SCT RAIN
SHOWERS...WITH LIGHT SNOW MIXING IN AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

ANY PCPN THAT DOES OCCUR WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING...WITH THE
ENTIRE AREA BCMG DRY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. ONLY OTHER
CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WAS THE FROST POTENTIAL...MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY AREAS. CURRENT FORECAST DROPS OVERNIGHT
LOWS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S MAINLY...WITH ISOLATED SPOTS NEARING
FREEZING. THINKING THE WINDS SHOULD STAY ELEVATED ENOUGH AND THE
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT LATE ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS AS FORECASTED.
HOWEVER...IF THE TREND THIS EVENING LOOKS TO HAVE CLEARING QUICKER
AND/OR WINDS DROPPING MORE...COULD SEE THE NEED FOR A FROST ADVISORY
IN AUGUSTA/ROCKINGHAM/NELSON. COUNTIES TO THE WEST ARE YET TO ENTER
THE GROWING SEASON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LVL LOW PIVOTS OFF TO THE EAST TUES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN AT THE SFC...KEEPING THE AREA DRY. SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL HELP TO CLEAR SKIES TUES
MORNING...BUT COULD SEE SCT CU BY TUES AFTN. DOWNSLOPING WINDS
UNDER THE SCT SKIES WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
LOWS TUES NIGHT STAY IN THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA...LIMITING
THE FROST CONCERN.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND BE REPLACED BY A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE APPALACHIANS. A SECOND AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AS IT PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN FL
AND MOVE OFFSHORE. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE DAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF
THE HIGHLANDS...THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL
FOOTHILLS. OTHERWISE DRY WX EXPECTED. RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGH OFFSHORE. TEMPS SHOULD BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOW 70S.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE MTNS WED NIGHT. THE LOW THAT WAS
OVER FL DURING THE DAY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AND STRENGTHEN. THERE
REMAINS SOME SPREAD AMONG MODELS ABOUT THE STRENGTH AND TRAJECTORY
OF THIS SYSTEM...AND THEREFORE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT TIMING AND LOCATION
OF RAINFALL ONSET OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE TIME BEING. LOWS FOR MOST AREAS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S...WITH LOW TO MID 50S LIKELY ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS RATHER LARGE WITH TRACK OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL OR EVEN MODEL CYCLE
YOU CHOOSE...OUR AREA COULD SEE ANYWHERE FROM A COUPLE OF INCHES
TO LESS THAN A HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. 00Z GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH TRACK...WITH THE LOW HUGGING THE COASTLINE AS IT MOVES TO OUR
EAST/NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...12Z GFS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH 00Z
ECMWF...AND KEEPS LOW FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE THAT OVERALL IMPACTS TO
OUR AREA ARE LESS. FOR NOW...LEANED MORE TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF/12Z
GFS SOLUTION DUE BETTER INITIALIZATIONS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
CLOSELY AS A SMALL CHANGE IN THE TRACK COULD SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE
IMPACTS FOR OUR AREA.

REGARDLESS OF WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS THIS WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO AND PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE TAF PERIOD. BRIEF RAIN SHOWER PSBL THIS
AFTN...MAINLY 19-22Z...WITH MINIMAL CATEGORICAL IMPACTS. OCNL
GUSTS PSBL LATE THIS AFTN...WITH THE GUSTS ENDING 23-02Z THIS
EVENING. OCNL GUSTS WILL BE PSBL AGAIN AT KBWI/KMTN ON TUES.

PRIMARILY VFR WEDNESDAY. LIGHT NW WINDS IN THE MORNING
BECOME SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTN. PSBL SUB-VFR WITH POTENTIAL RAIN DVLPG
WED NIGHT. WINDS S-SW LESS THAN 10KT.

UNCERTAINTY REMAINS LARGE WITH TRACK AND IMPACT OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG COAST ON THU. THE MORE THE LOW HUGS THE
COAST...THE GREATER THE AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE.
REGARDLESS...WOULD EXPECT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN ANY SHOWERS THAT
OCCUR THU INTO FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALL WATERS...THEN
CONTINUES ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND SOUTHERN TIDAL POTOMAC THROUGH
TUES AFTN. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS BY TUES EVENING.

LIGHT NW WINDS ON THE WATERS WED MORNING...BECOMING S-SE 5-10KT BY
THE AFTN. NO ADVISORIES XPCTD. LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE INTO THE
ATLANTIC OFF THE FL COAST WED NIGHT AND STRENGTHEN AS IT BEGINS TO
MOVE TO THE NORTH. WINDS BECOME SW AROUND 10KT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SOME GUSTS UP TO 15KT. LIGHT RAIN PSBL.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE COAST THU INTO FRI HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE PERIODS OF SCA OR GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS/KS
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...SEARS/KS/MSE
MARINE...SEARS/KS/MSE




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271815
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
215 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS DEPICTS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. STRONG
UPPER LOW ALOFT CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF MAINE...BUT EXTENDING
WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WV SATELLITE
SHOWS 2 SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES OF INTEREST...THE FIRST ALREADY
APPROACHING THE CWA IS SITUATED OVER SW VA AND NW NC WILL PUSH OFF
THE NC COAST THROUGH 18Z. THE 2ND ONE LAGS BACK TO THE NW OVER
OHIO. SKIES HAVE BEEN SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY THUS FAR...BUT VIS
SATELLITE SHOWS SCT-BKN CU FIELD DEVELOPING ACRS NRN VA AND THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SE INTO EARLY AFTN. TIMING OF THE 2ND
SHORTWAVE DIVING SE THROUGH THE MID ATLC STATES LATER TODAY IS A
BIT SLOWER...PROGGED BY A MODEL CONSENSUS TO BE OVER ERN WV AND
CENTRAL VA BY 00Z THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS...THIS
FORCING COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE THE ONLY SUPPORT FOR
PRECIP. WILL SCALE BACK ON ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIP UNTIL LATE IN
THE AFTN/GENLY AFTER 20Z TO 21Z AS THE 2ND SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE NW (KEEPING POPS LIMITED TO 20%). EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME
PARTLY CLOUDY CWA- WIDE BY EARLY AFTN...POSSIBLY MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR
A FEW HRS ACRS THE N AND NE. HIGHS APPEAR ON TRACK...MID TO UPPER
60S MOST AREAS...LOWER 60S ON THE ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
S/W EXITS TO THE ESE THIS EVE...W/ ANY BKN CLDS AND ISOLD/SCT
PCPN DISSIPATING OVRNGT. SFC HI PRES TO CONT TO BUILD INTO RGN FM
THE NW THROUGH TUE...THEN WEAKEN/DRIFT OFF THE CST INTO WED. LO
PRES EXITING SCNTRL CONUS TUE/TUE NGT BEGINS TO TRACK THROUGH THE
GULF CST STATES ON WED...BRINGING GRADUAL INCRS IN CLDNS/MOISTURE
INTO THE MID ATLC RGN. MDLS CONT TO HOLD OFF MOST OF ANY SGFNT
PCPN UNTIL LT WED. WILL MAINTAIN WILL MAINTAIN 20-40% POPS WED
AFTN SW...DRY NE.

LO TEMPS TNGT MNLY IN THE L/M40S. HI TEMPS TUE FM THE M60S AT THE
CST TO U60S-ARND 70F INLAND. LO TEMPS TUE NGT MNLY 45 TO 50F. HI
TEMPS WED FM THE M60S SW TO AROUND 70F ELSW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FORECAST BEGINNING WED NIGHT REMAINS WEIGHTED
TOWARD THE WPC/ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS LOW PRESSURE UP THE SE
COAST WED NIGHT...THEN DEEPENS THE LOW OFF THE OBX ON THURSDAY
BEFORE QUICKLY SHOVING IT WELL OUT TO SEA THURSDAY NIGHT. BASED ON
THIS SOLUTION...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) NORTH AND CHC
POPS (30-50%) ACROSS THE SOUTH WED NIGHT. WILL EXPAND CHC POPS
(30-40%) INTO NORTHERN AREAS ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH CHC TO LIKELY
POPS (50-60%) ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS (HIGHEST FAR SE)...BEFORE
DWINDLING RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PULLS AWAY. THE ECMWF DOES BRING A PIECE OF NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY
SOUTH INTO THE FA THURS NIGHT WHICH MAY ACTUALLY LINGER PCPN CHANCES
INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY. FOR NOW...WILL COVER THE POSSIBILITY WITH SLIGHT
CHC POPS. DRY WX THEN RETURNS LATER FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S THU/FRI...EXCEPT SOME UPR 50S
IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCALES. (NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.)
HIGHS THEN WARM INTO THE MID/UPR 60S AT THE COAST TO MID/UPR 70S
INLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VSBL STLT SHOWED INCREASING CLOUD COVER SPREADING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WITH BASES OF 5 TO 8K FT. A DEEP SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WAS APPROACHING FROM THE N/NW. MOST OF THIS CLOUDINESS
SHOULD CLEAR NEAR SUNSET DUE TO LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. N/NW WINDS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS BECOMING GUSTY AT
TIMES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST
TUESDAY. DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA SHOULD KEEP THE SKY MOSTLY CLEAR.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS. A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
A LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN OVER SRN VA AND NC. RAIN IS FORECAST TO END
ON FRIDAY. PERIODS OF IFR WILL BE PSBL DURING THIS EVENT. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS ONCE AGAIN BY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HI PRES WILL GRADUALLY BLD IN FM THE WNW TODAY THRU TUE...WHILE
STRONG LO PRES OVR THE NRN ATLC SLOWLY MOVES E. THIS WILL RESULT
IN STRONGER NW OR N WINDS LATER TODAY INTO TUE AFTN...WITH SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON ALL THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. WAVES
WILL BLD TO 3-4 FT ON THE BAY TNGT...WITH SEAS BLDNG TO 4-5 FT ON
THE OCEAN. CALMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE AFTN THRU WED NGT...THEN
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY FOR ALL WATERS
THU AFTN INTO FRI MORNG...AS LO PRES MOVES UP THE CST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ633-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...TMG




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271815
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
215 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS DEPICTS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. STRONG
UPPER LOW ALOFT CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF MAINE...BUT EXTENDING
WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WV SATELLITE
SHOWS 2 SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES OF INTEREST...THE FIRST ALREADY
APPROACHING THE CWA IS SITUATED OVER SW VA AND NW NC WILL PUSH OFF
THE NC COAST THROUGH 18Z. THE 2ND ONE LAGS BACK TO THE NW OVER
OHIO. SKIES HAVE BEEN SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY THUS FAR...BUT VIS
SATELLITE SHOWS SCT-BKN CU FIELD DEVELOPING ACRS NRN VA AND THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SE INTO EARLY AFTN. TIMING OF THE 2ND
SHORTWAVE DIVING SE THROUGH THE MID ATLC STATES LATER TODAY IS A
BIT SLOWER...PROGGED BY A MODEL CONSENSUS TO BE OVER ERN WV AND
CENTRAL VA BY 00Z THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS...THIS
FORCING COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE THE ONLY SUPPORT FOR
PRECIP. WILL SCALE BACK ON ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIP UNTIL LATE IN
THE AFTN/GENLY AFTER 20Z TO 21Z AS THE 2ND SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE NW (KEEPING POPS LIMITED TO 20%). EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME
PARTLY CLOUDY CWA- WIDE BY EARLY AFTN...POSSIBLY MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR
A FEW HRS ACRS THE N AND NE. HIGHS APPEAR ON TRACK...MID TO UPPER
60S MOST AREAS...LOWER 60S ON THE ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
S/W EXITS TO THE ESE THIS EVE...W/ ANY BKN CLDS AND ISOLD/SCT
PCPN DISSIPATING OVRNGT. SFC HI PRES TO CONT TO BUILD INTO RGN FM
THE NW THROUGH TUE...THEN WEAKEN/DRIFT OFF THE CST INTO WED. LO
PRES EXITING SCNTRL CONUS TUE/TUE NGT BEGINS TO TRACK THROUGH THE
GULF CST STATES ON WED...BRINGING GRADUAL INCRS IN CLDNS/MOISTURE
INTO THE MID ATLC RGN. MDLS CONT TO HOLD OFF MOST OF ANY SGFNT
PCPN UNTIL LT WED. WILL MAINTAIN WILL MAINTAIN 20-40% POPS WED
AFTN SW...DRY NE.

LO TEMPS TNGT MNLY IN THE L/M40S. HI TEMPS TUE FM THE M60S AT THE
CST TO U60S-ARND 70F INLAND. LO TEMPS TUE NGT MNLY 45 TO 50F. HI
TEMPS WED FM THE M60S SW TO AROUND 70F ELSW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FORECAST BEGINNING WED NIGHT REMAINS WEIGHTED
TOWARD THE WPC/ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS LOW PRESSURE UP THE SE
COAST WED NIGHT...THEN DEEPENS THE LOW OFF THE OBX ON THURSDAY
BEFORE QUICKLY SHOVING IT WELL OUT TO SEA THURSDAY NIGHT. BASED ON
THIS SOLUTION...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) NORTH AND CHC
POPS (30-50%) ACROSS THE SOUTH WED NIGHT. WILL EXPAND CHC POPS
(30-40%) INTO NORTHERN AREAS ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH CHC TO LIKELY
POPS (50-60%) ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS (HIGHEST FAR SE)...BEFORE
DWINDLING RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PULLS AWAY. THE ECMWF DOES BRING A PIECE OF NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY
SOUTH INTO THE FA THURS NIGHT WHICH MAY ACTUALLY LINGER PCPN CHANCES
INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY. FOR NOW...WILL COVER THE POSSIBILITY WITH SLIGHT
CHC POPS. DRY WX THEN RETURNS LATER FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S THU/FRI...EXCEPT SOME UPR 50S
IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCALES. (NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.)
HIGHS THEN WARM INTO THE MID/UPR 60S AT THE COAST TO MID/UPR 70S
INLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VSBL STLT SHOWED INCREASING CLOUD COVER SPREADING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WITH BASES OF 5 TO 8K FT. A DEEP SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WAS APPROACHING FROM THE N/NW. MOST OF THIS CLOUDINESS
SHOULD CLEAR NEAR SUNSET DUE TO LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. N/NW WINDS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS BECOMING GUSTY AT
TIMES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST
TUESDAY. DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA SHOULD KEEP THE SKY MOSTLY CLEAR.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS. A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
A LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN OVER SRN VA AND NC. RAIN IS FORECAST TO END
ON FRIDAY. PERIODS OF IFR WILL BE PSBL DURING THIS EVENT. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS ONCE AGAIN BY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HI PRES WILL GRADUALLY BLD IN FM THE WNW TODAY THRU TUE...WHILE
STRONG LO PRES OVR THE NRN ATLC SLOWLY MOVES E. THIS WILL RESULT
IN STRONGER NW OR N WINDS LATER TODAY INTO TUE AFTN...WITH SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON ALL THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. WAVES
WILL BLD TO 3-4 FT ON THE BAY TNGT...WITH SEAS BLDNG TO 4-5 FT ON
THE OCEAN. CALMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE AFTN THRU WED NGT...THEN
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY FOR ALL WATERS
THU AFTN INTO FRI MORNG...AS LO PRES MOVES UP THE CST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ633-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...TMG



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271815
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
215 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS DEPICTS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. STRONG
UPPER LOW ALOFT CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF MAINE...BUT EXTENDING
WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WV SATELLITE
SHOWS 2 SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES OF INTEREST...THE FIRST ALREADY
APPROACHING THE CWA IS SITUATED OVER SW VA AND NW NC WILL PUSH OFF
THE NC COAST THROUGH 18Z. THE 2ND ONE LAGS BACK TO THE NW OVER
OHIO. SKIES HAVE BEEN SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY THUS FAR...BUT VIS
SATELLITE SHOWS SCT-BKN CU FIELD DEVELOPING ACRS NRN VA AND THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SE INTO EARLY AFTN. TIMING OF THE 2ND
SHORTWAVE DIVING SE THROUGH THE MID ATLC STATES LATER TODAY IS A
BIT SLOWER...PROGGED BY A MODEL CONSENSUS TO BE OVER ERN WV AND
CENTRAL VA BY 00Z THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS...THIS
FORCING COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE THE ONLY SUPPORT FOR
PRECIP. WILL SCALE BACK ON ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIP UNTIL LATE IN
THE AFTN/GENLY AFTER 20Z TO 21Z AS THE 2ND SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE NW (KEEPING POPS LIMITED TO 20%). EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME
PARTLY CLOUDY CWA- WIDE BY EARLY AFTN...POSSIBLY MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR
A FEW HRS ACRS THE N AND NE. HIGHS APPEAR ON TRACK...MID TO UPPER
60S MOST AREAS...LOWER 60S ON THE ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
S/W EXITS TO THE ESE THIS EVE...W/ ANY BKN CLDS AND ISOLD/SCT
PCPN DISSIPATING OVRNGT. SFC HI PRES TO CONT TO BUILD INTO RGN FM
THE NW THROUGH TUE...THEN WEAKEN/DRIFT OFF THE CST INTO WED. LO
PRES EXITING SCNTRL CONUS TUE/TUE NGT BEGINS TO TRACK THROUGH THE
GULF CST STATES ON WED...BRINGING GRADUAL INCRS IN CLDNS/MOISTURE
INTO THE MID ATLC RGN. MDLS CONT TO HOLD OFF MOST OF ANY SGFNT
PCPN UNTIL LT WED. WILL MAINTAIN WILL MAINTAIN 20-40% POPS WED
AFTN SW...DRY NE.

LO TEMPS TNGT MNLY IN THE L/M40S. HI TEMPS TUE FM THE M60S AT THE
CST TO U60S-ARND 70F INLAND. LO TEMPS TUE NGT MNLY 45 TO 50F. HI
TEMPS WED FM THE M60S SW TO AROUND 70F ELSW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FORECAST BEGINNING WED NIGHT REMAINS WEIGHTED
TOWARD THE WPC/ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS LOW PRESSURE UP THE SE
COAST WED NIGHT...THEN DEEPENS THE LOW OFF THE OBX ON THURSDAY
BEFORE QUICKLY SHOVING IT WELL OUT TO SEA THURSDAY NIGHT. BASED ON
THIS SOLUTION...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) NORTH AND CHC
POPS (30-50%) ACROSS THE SOUTH WED NIGHT. WILL EXPAND CHC POPS
(30-40%) INTO NORTHERN AREAS ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH CHC TO LIKELY
POPS (50-60%) ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS (HIGHEST FAR SE)...BEFORE
DWINDLING RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PULLS AWAY. THE ECMWF DOES BRING A PIECE OF NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY
SOUTH INTO THE FA THURS NIGHT WHICH MAY ACTUALLY LINGER PCPN CHANCES
INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY. FOR NOW...WILL COVER THE POSSIBILITY WITH SLIGHT
CHC POPS. DRY WX THEN RETURNS LATER FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S THU/FRI...EXCEPT SOME UPR 50S
IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCALES. (NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.)
HIGHS THEN WARM INTO THE MID/UPR 60S AT THE COAST TO MID/UPR 70S
INLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VSBL STLT SHOWED INCREASING CLOUD COVER SPREADING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WITH BASES OF 5 TO 8K FT. A DEEP SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WAS APPROACHING FROM THE N/NW. MOST OF THIS CLOUDINESS
SHOULD CLEAR NEAR SUNSET DUE TO LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. N/NW WINDS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS BECOMING GUSTY AT
TIMES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST
TUESDAY. DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA SHOULD KEEP THE SKY MOSTLY CLEAR.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS. A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
A LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN OVER SRN VA AND NC. RAIN IS FORECAST TO END
ON FRIDAY. PERIODS OF IFR WILL BE PSBL DURING THIS EVENT. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS ONCE AGAIN BY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HI PRES WILL GRADUALLY BLD IN FM THE WNW TODAY THRU TUE...WHILE
STRONG LO PRES OVR THE NRN ATLC SLOWLY MOVES E. THIS WILL RESULT
IN STRONGER NW OR N WINDS LATER TODAY INTO TUE AFTN...WITH SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON ALL THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. WAVES
WILL BLD TO 3-4 FT ON THE BAY TNGT...WITH SEAS BLDNG TO 4-5 FT ON
THE OCEAN. CALMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE AFTN THRU WED NGT...THEN
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY FOR ALL WATERS
THU AFTN INTO FRI MORNG...AS LO PRES MOVES UP THE CST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ633-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...TMG




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271815
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
215 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS DEPICTS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. STRONG
UPPER LOW ALOFT CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF MAINE...BUT EXTENDING
WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WV SATELLITE
SHOWS 2 SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES OF INTEREST...THE FIRST ALREADY
APPROACHING THE CWA IS SITUATED OVER SW VA AND NW NC WILL PUSH OFF
THE NC COAST THROUGH 18Z. THE 2ND ONE LAGS BACK TO THE NW OVER
OHIO. SKIES HAVE BEEN SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY THUS FAR...BUT VIS
SATELLITE SHOWS SCT-BKN CU FIELD DEVELOPING ACRS NRN VA AND THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SE INTO EARLY AFTN. TIMING OF THE 2ND
SHORTWAVE DIVING SE THROUGH THE MID ATLC STATES LATER TODAY IS A
BIT SLOWER...PROGGED BY A MODEL CONSENSUS TO BE OVER ERN WV AND
CENTRAL VA BY 00Z THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS...THIS
FORCING COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE THE ONLY SUPPORT FOR
PRECIP. WILL SCALE BACK ON ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIP UNTIL LATE IN
THE AFTN/GENLY AFTER 20Z TO 21Z AS THE 2ND SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE NW (KEEPING POPS LIMITED TO 20%). EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME
PARTLY CLOUDY CWA- WIDE BY EARLY AFTN...POSSIBLY MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR
A FEW HRS ACRS THE N AND NE. HIGHS APPEAR ON TRACK...MID TO UPPER
60S MOST AREAS...LOWER 60S ON THE ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
S/W EXITS TO THE ESE THIS EVE...W/ ANY BKN CLDS AND ISOLD/SCT
PCPN DISSIPATING OVRNGT. SFC HI PRES TO CONT TO BUILD INTO RGN FM
THE NW THROUGH TUE...THEN WEAKEN/DRIFT OFF THE CST INTO WED. LO
PRES EXITING SCNTRL CONUS TUE/TUE NGT BEGINS TO TRACK THROUGH THE
GULF CST STATES ON WED...BRINGING GRADUAL INCRS IN CLDNS/MOISTURE
INTO THE MID ATLC RGN. MDLS CONT TO HOLD OFF MOST OF ANY SGFNT
PCPN UNTIL LT WED. WILL MAINTAIN WILL MAINTAIN 20-40% POPS WED
AFTN SW...DRY NE.

LO TEMPS TNGT MNLY IN THE L/M40S. HI TEMPS TUE FM THE M60S AT THE
CST TO U60S-ARND 70F INLAND. LO TEMPS TUE NGT MNLY 45 TO 50F. HI
TEMPS WED FM THE M60S SW TO AROUND 70F ELSW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FORECAST BEGINNING WED NIGHT REMAINS WEIGHTED
TOWARD THE WPC/ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS LOW PRESSURE UP THE SE
COAST WED NIGHT...THEN DEEPENS THE LOW OFF THE OBX ON THURSDAY
BEFORE QUICKLY SHOVING IT WELL OUT TO SEA THURSDAY NIGHT. BASED ON
THIS SOLUTION...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) NORTH AND CHC
POPS (30-50%) ACROSS THE SOUTH WED NIGHT. WILL EXPAND CHC POPS
(30-40%) INTO NORTHERN AREAS ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH CHC TO LIKELY
POPS (50-60%) ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS (HIGHEST FAR SE)...BEFORE
DWINDLING RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PULLS AWAY. THE ECMWF DOES BRING A PIECE OF NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY
SOUTH INTO THE FA THURS NIGHT WHICH MAY ACTUALLY LINGER PCPN CHANCES
INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY. FOR NOW...WILL COVER THE POSSIBILITY WITH SLIGHT
CHC POPS. DRY WX THEN RETURNS LATER FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S THU/FRI...EXCEPT SOME UPR 50S
IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCALES. (NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.)
HIGHS THEN WARM INTO THE MID/UPR 60S AT THE COAST TO MID/UPR 70S
INLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VSBL STLT SHOWED INCREASING CLOUD COVER SPREADING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WITH BASES OF 5 TO 8K FT. A DEEP SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WAS APPROACHING FROM THE N/NW. MOST OF THIS CLOUDINESS
SHOULD CLEAR NEAR SUNSET DUE TO LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. N/NW WINDS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS BECOMING GUSTY AT
TIMES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST
TUESDAY. DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA SHOULD KEEP THE SKY MOSTLY CLEAR.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS. A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
A LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN OVER SRN VA AND NC. RAIN IS FORECAST TO END
ON FRIDAY. PERIODS OF IFR WILL BE PSBL DURING THIS EVENT. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS ONCE AGAIN BY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HI PRES WILL GRADUALLY BLD IN FM THE WNW TODAY THRU TUE...WHILE
STRONG LO PRES OVR THE NRN ATLC SLOWLY MOVES E. THIS WILL RESULT
IN STRONGER NW OR N WINDS LATER TODAY INTO TUE AFTN...WITH SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON ALL THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. WAVES
WILL BLD TO 3-4 FT ON THE BAY TNGT...WITH SEAS BLDNG TO 4-5 FT ON
THE OCEAN. CALMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE AFTN THRU WED NGT...THEN
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY FOR ALL WATERS
THU AFTN INTO FRI MORNG...AS LO PRES MOVES UP THE CST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ633-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...TMG



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271747
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
147 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
PROVIDE CLOUDS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES. WARMER AIR MOVES BACK IN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH 1230PM UPDATE...HAVE ADDED LIKELY POPS ACROSS MOST NON-OHIO
COUNTIES. INSTEAD OF SHOWERS BEING MORE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE...A
MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAIN HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA OVER THE LAST TWO HOURS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
THIS BRINGS A HALT TO ANY ADDITIONAL WARMING THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...
CIRCLING AROUND A LARGE UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS
WAVE WILL THICKEN CLOUDS...INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
SPREAD COLDER AIR OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. THE RISK FOR SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES DUE NOT ONLY TO THE WAVE
SWINGING THROUGH...BUT ALSO TO THE RATHER COLD AIR ALOFT. THIS
WILL CREATE A SCENARIO IN WHICH THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES
QUICKLY. ADDITIONALLY...WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT...RAIN SHOWERS
MAY AT TIME MIX WITH SNOW...OR PRECIPITATION MAY FALL AS GRAUPEL.
THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER THE RIDGES WHERE THERMAL
PROFILES BECOME COLD ENOUGH LATE IN THE DAY TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW ON
THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN A DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE SOUTH TO NORTH WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

TEMPERATURE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD A BLEND OF MOS WHICH IS
NEAR 5 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CHANCE POPS DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM
MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. BY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON HANDLING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
EAST COAST MAKE FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...AND CONTINUED TO
FOLLOW NEWEST WPC PROGS INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED UNTIL SHORTWAVE AND DEEPER MOISTURE
SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST LATER TONIGHT...WITH QUICKER IMPROVEMENT
CLOSER KZZV TO KHLG. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EARLY TUESDAY AS DRIER
AIR WORKS INTO REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH
THURSDAY LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271633
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1233 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
PROVIDE CLOUDS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES. WARMER AIR MOVES BACK IN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH 1230PM UPDATE...HAVE ADDED LIKELY POPS ACROSS MOST NON-OHIO
COUNTIES. INSTEAD OF SHOWERS BEING MORE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE...A
MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAIN HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA OVER THE LAST TWO HOURS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
THIS BRINGS A HALT TO ANY ADDITIONAL WARMING THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...
CIRCLING AROUND A LARGE UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS
WAVE WILL THICKEN CLOUDS...INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
SPREAD COLDER AIR OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. THE RISK FOR SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES DUE NOT ONLY TO THE WAVE
SWINGING THROUGH...BUT ALSO TO THE RATHER COLD AIR ALOFT. THIS
WILL CREATE A SCENARIO IN WHICH THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES
QUICKLY. ADDITIONALLY...WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT...RAIN SHOWERS
MAY AT TIME MIX WITH SNOW...OR PRECIPITATION MAY FALL AS GRAUPEL.
THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER THE RIDGES WHERE THERMAL
PROFILES BECOME COLD ENOUGH LATE IN THE DAY TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW ON
THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN A DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE SOUTH TO NORTH WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

TEMPERATURE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD A BLEND OF MOS WHICH IS
NEAR 5 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT. STILL
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AS DOUBT ON HOW MUCH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE. BY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MODEL
DISCREPANCIES ON HANDLING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EAST COAST MAKE
FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
AFTER DAYBREAK. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
FROM THE NORTH AS THE MIXING LAYER DEEPENS UNDER THAT FEATURE. THE
VICINITY SHOWER MENTION WILL THUS BE MAINTAINED WITH PREVAILING
WORDING OVER PORTS EAST OF PIT. RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MVFR...BUT THE INCREASED MIXING LAYER WILL SUPPORT WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20 KTS.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH
THURSDAY LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271633
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1233 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
PROVIDE CLOUDS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES. WARMER AIR MOVES BACK IN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH 1230PM UPDATE...HAVE ADDED LIKELY POPS ACROSS MOST NON-OHIO
COUNTIES. INSTEAD OF SHOWERS BEING MORE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE...A
MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAIN HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA OVER THE LAST TWO HOURS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
THIS BRINGS A HALT TO ANY ADDITIONAL WARMING THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...
CIRCLING AROUND A LARGE UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS
WAVE WILL THICKEN CLOUDS...INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
SPREAD COLDER AIR OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. THE RISK FOR SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES DUE NOT ONLY TO THE WAVE
SWINGING THROUGH...BUT ALSO TO THE RATHER COLD AIR ALOFT. THIS
WILL CREATE A SCENARIO IN WHICH THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES
QUICKLY. ADDITIONALLY...WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT...RAIN SHOWERS
MAY AT TIME MIX WITH SNOW...OR PRECIPITATION MAY FALL AS GRAUPEL.
THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER THE RIDGES WHERE THERMAL
PROFILES BECOME COLD ENOUGH LATE IN THE DAY TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW ON
THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN A DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE SOUTH TO NORTH WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

TEMPERATURE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD A BLEND OF MOS WHICH IS
NEAR 5 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT. STILL
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AS DOUBT ON HOW MUCH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE. BY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MODEL
DISCREPANCIES ON HANDLING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EAST COAST MAKE
FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
AFTER DAYBREAK. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
FROM THE NORTH AS THE MIXING LAYER DEEPENS UNDER THAT FEATURE. THE
VICINITY SHOWER MENTION WILL THUS BE MAINTAINED WITH PREVAILING
WORDING OVER PORTS EAST OF PIT. RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MVFR...BUT THE INCREASED MIXING LAYER WILL SUPPORT WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20 KTS.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH
THURSDAY LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271523
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1123 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS DEPICTS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. STRONG
UPPER LOW ALOFT CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF MAINE...BUT EXTENDING
WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WV SATELLITE
SHOWS 2 SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES OF INTEREST...THE FIRST ALREADY
APPROACHING THE CWA IS SITUATED OVER SW VA AND NW NC WILL PUSH OFF
THE NC COAST THROUGH 18Z. THE 2ND ONE LAGS BACK TO THE NW OVER
OHIO. SKIES HAVE BEEN SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY THUS FAR...BUT VIS
SATELLITE SHOWS SCT-BKN CU FIELD DEVELOPING ACRS NRN VA AND THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SE INTO EARLY AFTN. TIMING OF THE 2ND
SHORTWAVE DIVING SE THROUGH THE MID ATLC STATES LATER TODAY IS A
BIT SLOWER...PROGGED BY A MODEL CONSENSUS TO BE OVER ERN WV AND
CENTRAL VA BY 00Z THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS...THIS
FORCING COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE THE ONLY SUPPORT FOR
PRECIP. WILL SCALE BACK ON ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIP UNTIL LATE IN
THE AFTN/GENLY AFTER 20Z TO 21Z AS THE 2ND SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE NW (KEEPING POPS LIMITED TO 20%). EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME
PARTLY CLOUDY CWA- WIDE BY EARLY AFTN...POSSIBLY MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR
A FEW HRS ACRS THE N AND NE. HIGHS APPEAR ON TRACK...MID TO UPPER
60S MOST AREAS...LOWER 60S ON THE ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
S/W EXITS TO THE ESE THIS EVE...W/ ANY BKN CLDS AND ISOLD/SCT
PCPN DISSIPATING OVRNGT. SFC HI PRES TO CONT TO BUILD INTO RGN FM
THE NW THROUGH TUE...THEN WEAKEN/DRIFT OFF THE CST INTO WED. LO
PRES EXITING SCNTRL CONUS TUE/TUE NGT BEGINS TO TRACK THROUGH THE
GULF CST STATES ON WED...BRINGING GRADUAL INCRS IN CLDNS/MOISTURE
INTO THE MID ATLC RGN. MDLS CONT TO HOLD OFF MOST OF ANY SGFNT
PCPN UNTIL LT WED. WILL MAINTAIN WILL MAINTAIN 20-40% POPS WED
AFTN SW...DRY NE.

LO TEMPS TNGT MNLY IN THE L/M40S. HI TEMPS TUE FM THE M60S AT THE
CST TO U60S-ARND 70F INLAND. LO TEMPS TUE NGT MNLY 45 TO 50F. HI
TEMPS WED FM THE M60S SW TO AROUND 70F ELSW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FORECAST BEGINNING WED NIGHT REMAINS WEIGHTED
TOWARD THE WPC/ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS LOW PRESSURE UP THE SE
COAST WED NIGHT...THEN DEEPENS THE LOW OFF THE OBX ON THURSDAY
BEFORE QUICKLY SHOVING IT WELL OUT TO SEA THURSDAY NIGHT. BASED ON
THIS SOLUTION...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) NORTH AND CHC
POPS (30-50%) ACROSS THE SOUTH WED NIGHT. WILL EXPAND CHC POPS
(30-40%) INTO NORTHERN AREAS ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH CHC TO LIKELY
POPS (50-60%) ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS (HIGHEST FAR SE)...BEFORE
DWINDLING RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PULLS AWAY. THE ECMWF DOES BRING A PIECE OF NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY
SOUTH INTO THE FA THURS NIGHT WHICH MAY ACTUALLY LINGER PCPN CHANCES
INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY. FOR NOW...WILL COVER THE POSSIBILITY WITH SLIGHT
CHC POPS. DRY WX THEN RETURNS LATER FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S THU/FRI...EXCEPT SOME UPR 50S
IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCALES. (NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.)
HIGHS THEN WARM INTO THE MID/UPR 60S AT THE COAST TO MID/UPR 70S
INLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO TUE MORNG...AS STRONG LO
PRES SPINS OVR THE NRN ATLC WHILE HI PRES BLDS SSE INTO THE UPR
MIDWEST. THERE MAY BE PATCHY GROUND FOG EARLY THIS MORNG AT THE
SITES...DUE TO LGT WINDS AND LINGERING LO LVL MOIST. OTHERWISE...A
SOMEWHAT DRIER NW OR N FLO WILL FILTER DOWN OVR THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...DRY WX AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE INTO WED
MORNG. LO PRES MOVES OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NE JUST OFF
THE SE AND MID ATLC CSTS TUE NGT INTO THU NGT WHILE INTENSIFYING.
THIS LO MAY PRODUCE PCPN WED NGT INTO THU NGT. IFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HI PRES WILL GRADUALLY BLD IN FM THE WNW TODAY THRU TUE...WHILE
STRONG LO PRES OVR THE NRN ATLC SLOWLY MOVES E. THIS WILL RESULT
IN STRONGER NW OR N WINDS LATER TODAY INTO TUE AFTN...WITH SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON ALL THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. WAVES
WILL BLD TO 3-4 FT ON THE BAY TNGT...WITH SEAS BLDNG TO 4-5 FT ON
THE OCEAN. CALMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE AFTN THRU WED NGT...THEN
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY FOR ALL WATERS
THU AFTN INTO FRI MORNG...AS LO PRES MOVES UP THE CST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ633-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG




000
FXUS61 KLWX 271427
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1027 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LVL LOW REMAINS POSITIONED OVER CANADIAN
MARITIMES...EXTENDING WEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE LOW IS BRINGING
INCREASED CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING ALONG THE MASON-DIXON. CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THIS AFTN. TEMPS HAVE
WARMED QUICKLY THIS MORNING OUTSIDE THE CLOUDY REGION...THOUGH
STILL EXPECTING HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 50S-MID 60S WITH THE
INCREASING CLOUD COVER THIS AFTN.

SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS NOTED ON 14Z WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WILL DIVE SOUTH THIS AFTN. THIS FORCING COMBININGWITH
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN ISO-SCT RAIN SHOWERS. ANY SHOWER
WILL BE LIGHT IN NATURE. COULD SEE LIGHT SNOW MIXING IN AT THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THIS EVENING BEFORE
THE PCPN TAPERS OFF.

AS HAS FRQNTLY BEEN THE CASE LATELY TEMPS XPCTD TO BE BLO NRML. W/
THE CENTRAL SHEN VLLY BEING THE LAST TO CLD OVR TEMPS SHOULD RISE
TO THE M60S...BUT MUCH OF THE RMDR OF THE FCST AREA WL TOP OUT IN
THE U50S/L60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC PTTN IS GOING TO BE SLOW TO CHG THRU TUE: THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPR LOW LOOKS TO SPIN SLOWLY OUT TO SEA. HIGH PRES
WL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE MID ATLC DURG TUE. LOWS TNGT WL BE IN THE
L40S. W/ MORE INSOLATION TUE TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE
U60S - STILL A FEW DEGS BLO NRML.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN ACTIVE AND COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GULF COAST
REGION IS CERTAIN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. MODEL
DIVERGENCE FOR THE SYSTEM AS IT NEARS THE AREA TOWARD MID WEEK ADDS
UNCERTAINTY. THE 00Z VERSION OF THE ECM KEEPS A MORE SRN-STREAM
SYSTEM AND KEEPS IT AS MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE UPON ARRIVING OVER THE
ATLC COAST WED INTO THU. INSTEAD OF AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM
FROM A BACK SIDE UPPER VORT DIVING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...IT PUSHES THE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST. THE GFS HOWEVER HAS
QUITE THE AGGRESSIVE DEPICTION IN ITS 00Z RUN...TAKING A DEEPENING
UPPER CUT OFF LOW OVER THE OHIO VLY AND SLIDING IT INTO THE BACK
SIDE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD OVER THE CAROLINAS AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME.

THE ADDITION OF THIS POTENT UPPER VORT DIVING DOWN OUT OF SRN
CANADA ADDS THE ENERGY THE SYSTEM WOULD NEED TO DO AN INTENSE
PHASING...SIMILAR TO SYSTEM IN THE MIDDLE OF WINTER OVER THE MID-
ATLC. THIS AGGRESSIVE SOLN BRINGS AN INTENSE SFC LOW HUGGING THE
DELMARVA COAST LATE THU INTO FRI. GUSTY WINDS OVER THE BAY AND A
COLD RAIN OVER THE REST OF THE MID-ATLC. RAISED POPS INTO THE MED
CHANCE CATEGORIES FROM LATE WED INTO EARLY FRI...BUT STILL NOT
CONFIDENT IN GFS SOLN W/ THE INTENSITY/DURATION AND ALL THE PROPER
FACTORS COMING TOGETHER FOR SUCH AN INTENSE STORM SYSTEM. BLENDED
SOME OF THE BIAS-CORRECTED VALUES AND LEANED ON THE EURO IN A
LONG- TERM BLEND OF VARIOUS WX ELEMENTS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS.

THE MORE AGGRESSIVE AND RECENT GFS RUN KEEPS THE SYSTEM OVER THE
AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY FRI WHILE THE EURO HAS A BULK OF THE
FEATURE WELL OFF THE COAST BY THEN. EITHER WAY...A MULTI-DAY PERIOD
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FROM THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE TAF PERIOD. BRIEF RAIN SHOWER PSBL THIS
AFTN...MAINLY 19-22Z...WITH MINIMAL CATEGORICAL IMPACTS. NW WINDS
INCREASING WITH GUSTS MIXING IN BETWEEN 15-17Z. GUSTS END TIME
22-00Z THIS EVENING.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE POSSIBLE EFFECTS OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
WILL APPROACH THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. POSSIBLY A
COUPLE OF DAYS OF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS...BUT A LESS INTENSE SOLN
WOULD BE FOR THE SYSTEM TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AND SLIDE OFF
THE ATLC COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HAS BEEN XTND FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WATERS THRU TUE. LOW
PRES IN THE GULF OF ME TDA WL TRACK SLOWLY E...BUT W/ HIGH PRES
MOVG INTO THE RGN TUE THE PRES GRAD WL RMN IN PLACE AND G20 XPCTD
THRU MID AFTN TUE.

A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH EARLY THIS WEEK
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SMALL CRAFT AND POSSIBLY GALE
CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS FROM LATE WED INTO FRI.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPHI 271332
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
932 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE BLUSTERY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC
WILL MOVE SLOWLY OUT TO SEA LATER TUESDAY. THEN WET LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY WILL INTENSIFY AS IT
PLODS NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATER THURSDAY AND THEN
SEAWARD JUST SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD SOUTH OF OUR REGION BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE UPPER TROUGH IS STILL ON TRACK TO DIG SOUTH OVER OUR REGION
LATER TODAY. AS A RESULT, EXPECT THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT HAVE KEPT POPS ONLY AROUND 20 PERCENT
SINCE THE AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER DRY AND ANY COVERAGE SHOULD BE
QUITE LIMITED. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE 50S FAR NORTH AND LOW
60S ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS
MORNING...THEN INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA AND IT
WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT AWAY FROM THE AREA. ANY SCT SHOWERS FROM THE
LATE AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING WITH THE 20 POP
CARRYING IN THE EVENING. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH A TREND TOWARD FEWER CLOUDS BY DAYBREAK TUE. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S NORTH AND LOW/MID 40S
ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE...FROM THE NW 10 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
**WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAINS MAY BE ON THE WAY HERE THURSDAY-
 FRIDAY**

500 MB:  BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS DOMINATE OUR AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING THEN A WARMING RIDGE DEVELOPS HERE SUNDAY.

THE LARGE CLOSED LOW IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
TUESDAY WEAKENS EASTWARD DURING MID WEEK. MEANWHILE A STRONG SOUTHERN
USA SHORT WAVE ON WEDNESDAY HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF BEING SCOOPED
NORTHWARD BY A SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHWARD
ALONG 83 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE. THE TWO SHOULD PHASE INTO A NEW
ROBUST CLOSED LOW ALONG OR EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES AROUND 3 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY THEN NEAR OR SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY - SATURDAY,
WITH A DEFINITE WARMING TREND TO FOLLOW NEXT SUNDAY!

HAZARDS THIS 6 DAY PERIOD: FIRE WEATHER IS A POSSIBLE CONSIDERATION
PRIOR TO THURSDAY. THURSDAY-FRIDAY IS UNCERTAIN BUT MINOR HYDRO
AND WIND ISSUES MAY DEVELOP?

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/27
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY, 00Z/27 MEX MOS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY, THEN THE 0541Z/27 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF
MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT-SKY-WIND FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

THE DAILIES...

TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING, CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AFTERNOON.
A GUSTY NNW WIND TO 20-25 MPH. CLEAR AT NIGHT. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE
AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...SUNNY (CIRRUS ARRIVES LATE DAY?) LIGHT NW-W WIND BUT
CHILLING AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES COASTS CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. EAST WIND, POSSIBLY GUSTY 20-30 MPH BY
LATE IN THE DAY. PERIODS OF RAIN LIKELY, POSSIBLY POCKETS OF HEAVY.
SMALL CHC OF A GUSTY TSTM SOUTHERN DE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE
00Z/27 GFS MODELS TT 55+, SWI -2 AND 40-50 KT 850 INFLOW.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS UNDERCUT BY 4 DEGREES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.

THE GEFS IS BECOMING EVER MORE ROBUST WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE THE
EURO REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE. UNLESS THE GEFS STARTS BACKING DOWN,
THINK WE NEED TO BE THINKING OF A DECENT STORM. STILL EARLY.

00Z/27 GEFS HAS A 20-30 PCT 48 HR PROB OF 2" IN PARTS OF OUR AREA
AND WIDESPREAD 48 HR 1 INCH AMTS. 850-925 MB ENE INFLOW IS ABOUT
3 OR 4 SD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. IF THE PHASE OCCURS - THIS
SHOULD BE QUITE A PCPN PRODUCER. 00Z NAEFS HAS SIGNIFICANT QPF AS
WELL, AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 1/2 INCH, ESPECIALLY S NJ SE PA SOUTHWARD.

CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO COASTAL STORM TRACK UNCERTAINTY.

FRIDAY...MORNING RAIN THEN CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND BLUSTERY
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS 25-35 MPH. RIGHT NOW OUR GRIDDED WIND FORECAST
LOOKS FAR TOO LOW. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO UNCERTAIN PROXIMITY OF
THE COASTAL STORM.

SURGE WILL NEED TO EXCEED 2 FEET BEFORE ITS A MINOR COASTAL FLOOD
PROBLEM,. RIGHT NOW GUIDANCE IS 1 TO 2 ABOVE NORMAL AT THE TIME
OF THE EVENING HIGH TIDES THU/FRI.



SATURDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15-20 MPH.
CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO UNCERTAIN PROXIMITY OF THE DEPARTING
COASTAL LOW.

SUNDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. MILDER. LIGHT WIND. CONFIDENCE:
AVERAGE.

OUTLOOK: A SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER
THE EASTERN STATES FOR THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF MAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MID LEVEL CLOUDS, BETWEEN 4000 AND 9000 FT AGL WILL CONTINUE FOR
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS, GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 AND 00Z, BUT HAVE NOT MENTIONED IN
THE TAFS DUE TO THE LOW CHANCE AND LIMITED COVERAGE IF THEY DO
OCCUR. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO 10 TO
20KT WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE
TONIGHT AROUND SUNSET.


OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR WITH PREDOMINANCE BKN CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT MIDDAY-
AFTERNOON. NNW WIND GUSTY TO 20-25 KT DIMINISHES TO LIGHT AT
NIGHT. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...VFR CLEAR WITH CIRRUS ARRIVING LATE IN THE DAY. W-NW
WIND GUSTS AOB 15 KT DURING THE DAY AND LIGHT AT NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR CIGS OCNL MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN
RAIN.  CHANCE OF A TSTM DELAWARE THU NIGHT? EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND
MAY GUST 20-30 KT LATE THU. PROBABLE IMPACT ON OPERATIONS AT KPHL.
DETAIL CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO UNCERTAIN PROXIMITY OF
THE COASTAL STORM.

FRIDAY...BLUSTERY. MORNING RAIN? OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CIGS CLEARING
AT NIGHT. N-NW WIND GUSTS 25-35KT. DETAIL CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...THEN SOME
COOLER AIR AND SFC GUSTINESS WILL BRING LOW-END SCA GUSTS TO THE
WATERS LATE THIS EVENING. THE ONGOING 00Z/TUE START TIME STILL
LOOKS GOOD AT THIS POINT...SO NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER TODAY WITH ONLY A SLGT CHC OR A SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY MORNING...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR A NORTHWEST
TO NORTH WIND GUSTING TO 25 OR 30 KNOTS. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...NO MARINE HEADLINES
ARE ANTICIPATED.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
SURE FOR NE WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS BACKING TO N OR NW FRIDAY
AND FOR WAVES ON OUR OCEAN WATERS WELL IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET.
THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE 35 TO 45 KT GUSTS
LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY MORNING BUT TRACK CONFIDENCE IS BELOW
AVERAGE. CONFIDENCE ON A HEADLINE MARINE EVENT IS WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO POSSIBLY 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP AROUND 30 PERCENT IN MUCH
OF OUR REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FURTHER DAYTIME EVALUATION AND
POSSIBLE PARTNER DISCUSSIONS MAY EVENTUALLY REQUIRE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING MARGINAL MORE RAPID RATE OF SPREAD CONDITIONS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

RH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ABOUT THE SAME OR POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY LOWER
BUT WIND GUSTS ARE LESS THAN 18 MPH.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 271332
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
932 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE BLUSTERY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC
WILL MOVE SLOWLY OUT TO SEA LATER TUESDAY. THEN WET LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY WILL INTENSIFY AS IT
PLODS NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATER THURSDAY AND THEN
SEAWARD JUST SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD SOUTH OF OUR REGION BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE UPPER TROUGH IS STILL ON TRACK TO DIG SOUTH OVER OUR REGION
LATER TODAY. AS A RESULT, EXPECT THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT HAVE KEPT POPS ONLY AROUND 20 PERCENT
SINCE THE AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER DRY AND ANY COVERAGE SHOULD BE
QUITE LIMITED. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE 50S FAR NORTH AND LOW
60S ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS
MORNING...THEN INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA AND IT
WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT AWAY FROM THE AREA. ANY SCT SHOWERS FROM THE
LATE AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING WITH THE 20 POP
CARRYING IN THE EVENING. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH A TREND TOWARD FEWER CLOUDS BY DAYBREAK TUE. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S NORTH AND LOW/MID 40S
ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE...FROM THE NW 10 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
**WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAINS MAY BE ON THE WAY HERE THURSDAY-
 FRIDAY**

500 MB:  BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS DOMINATE OUR AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING THEN A WARMING RIDGE DEVELOPS HERE SUNDAY.

THE LARGE CLOSED LOW IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
TUESDAY WEAKENS EASTWARD DURING MID WEEK. MEANWHILE A STRONG SOUTHERN
USA SHORT WAVE ON WEDNESDAY HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF BEING SCOOPED
NORTHWARD BY A SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHWARD
ALONG 83 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE. THE TWO SHOULD PHASE INTO A NEW
ROBUST CLOSED LOW ALONG OR EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES AROUND 3 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY THEN NEAR OR SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY - SATURDAY,
WITH A DEFINITE WARMING TREND TO FOLLOW NEXT SUNDAY!

HAZARDS THIS 6 DAY PERIOD: FIRE WEATHER IS A POSSIBLE CONSIDERATION
PRIOR TO THURSDAY. THURSDAY-FRIDAY IS UNCERTAIN BUT MINOR HYDRO
AND WIND ISSUES MAY DEVELOP?

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/27
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY, 00Z/27 MEX MOS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY, THEN THE 0541Z/27 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF
MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT-SKY-WIND FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

THE DAILIES...

TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING, CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AFTERNOON.
A GUSTY NNW WIND TO 20-25 MPH. CLEAR AT NIGHT. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE
AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...SUNNY (CIRRUS ARRIVES LATE DAY?) LIGHT NW-W WIND BUT
CHILLING AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES COASTS CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. EAST WIND, POSSIBLY GUSTY 20-30 MPH BY
LATE IN THE DAY. PERIODS OF RAIN LIKELY, POSSIBLY POCKETS OF HEAVY.
SMALL CHC OF A GUSTY TSTM SOUTHERN DE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE
00Z/27 GFS MODELS TT 55+, SWI -2 AND 40-50 KT 850 INFLOW.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS UNDERCUT BY 4 DEGREES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.

THE GEFS IS BECOMING EVER MORE ROBUST WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE THE
EURO REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE. UNLESS THE GEFS STARTS BACKING DOWN,
THINK WE NEED TO BE THINKING OF A DECENT STORM. STILL EARLY.

00Z/27 GEFS HAS A 20-30 PCT 48 HR PROB OF 2" IN PARTS OF OUR AREA
AND WIDESPREAD 48 HR 1 INCH AMTS. 850-925 MB ENE INFLOW IS ABOUT
3 OR 4 SD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. IF THE PHASE OCCURS - THIS
SHOULD BE QUITE A PCPN PRODUCER. 00Z NAEFS HAS SIGNIFICANT QPF AS
WELL, AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 1/2 INCH, ESPECIALLY S NJ SE PA SOUTHWARD.

CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO COASTAL STORM TRACK UNCERTAINTY.

FRIDAY...MORNING RAIN THEN CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND BLUSTERY
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS 25-35 MPH. RIGHT NOW OUR GRIDDED WIND FORECAST
LOOKS FAR TOO LOW. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO UNCERTAIN PROXIMITY OF
THE COASTAL STORM.

SURGE WILL NEED TO EXCEED 2 FEET BEFORE ITS A MINOR COASTAL FLOOD
PROBLEM,. RIGHT NOW GUIDANCE IS 1 TO 2 ABOVE NORMAL AT THE TIME
OF THE EVENING HIGH TIDES THU/FRI.



SATURDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15-20 MPH.
CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO UNCERTAIN PROXIMITY OF THE DEPARTING
COASTAL LOW.

SUNDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. MILDER. LIGHT WIND. CONFIDENCE:
AVERAGE.

OUTLOOK: A SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER
THE EASTERN STATES FOR THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF MAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MID LEVEL CLOUDS, BETWEEN 4000 AND 9000 FT AGL WILL CONTINUE FOR
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS, GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 AND 00Z, BUT HAVE NOT MENTIONED IN
THE TAFS DUE TO THE LOW CHANCE AND LIMITED COVERAGE IF THEY DO
OCCUR. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO 10 TO
20KT WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE
TONIGHT AROUND SUNSET.


OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR WITH PREDOMINANCE BKN CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT MIDDAY-
AFTERNOON. NNW WIND GUSTY TO 20-25 KT DIMINISHES TO LIGHT AT
NIGHT. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...VFR CLEAR WITH CIRRUS ARRIVING LATE IN THE DAY. W-NW
WIND GUSTS AOB 15 KT DURING THE DAY AND LIGHT AT NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR CIGS OCNL MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN
RAIN.  CHANCE OF A TSTM DELAWARE THU NIGHT? EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND
MAY GUST 20-30 KT LATE THU. PROBABLE IMPACT ON OPERATIONS AT KPHL.
DETAIL CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO UNCERTAIN PROXIMITY OF
THE COASTAL STORM.

FRIDAY...BLUSTERY. MORNING RAIN? OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CIGS CLEARING
AT NIGHT. N-NW WIND GUSTS 25-35KT. DETAIL CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...THEN SOME
COOLER AIR AND SFC GUSTINESS WILL BRING LOW-END SCA GUSTS TO THE
WATERS LATE THIS EVENING. THE ONGOING 00Z/TUE START TIME STILL
LOOKS GOOD AT THIS POINT...SO NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER TODAY WITH ONLY A SLGT CHC OR A SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY MORNING...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR A NORTHWEST
TO NORTH WIND GUSTING TO 25 OR 30 KNOTS. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...NO MARINE HEADLINES
ARE ANTICIPATED.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
SURE FOR NE WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS BACKING TO N OR NW FRIDAY
AND FOR WAVES ON OUR OCEAN WATERS WELL IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET.
THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE 35 TO 45 KT GUSTS
LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY MORNING BUT TRACK CONFIDENCE IS BELOW
AVERAGE. CONFIDENCE ON A HEADLINE MARINE EVENT IS WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO POSSIBLY 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP AROUND 30 PERCENT IN MUCH
OF OUR REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FURTHER DAYTIME EVALUATION AND
POSSIBLE PARTNER DISCUSSIONS MAY EVENTUALLY REQUIRE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING MARGINAL MORE RAPID RATE OF SPREAD CONDITIONS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

RH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ABOUT THE SAME OR POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY LOWER
BUT WIND GUSTS ARE LESS THAN 18 MPH.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271219
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
819 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
PROVIDE CLOUDS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES. WARMER AIR MOVES BACK IN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH 815AM UPDATE...TWEAKED HOURLY TRENDS FOR CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES. HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS AND CURRENT FORECAST SEEM TO
ALIGN WELL WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE TIMING OR COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION TODAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...
CIRCLING AROUND A LARGE UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS
WAVE WILL THICKEN CLOUDS...INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
SPREAD COLDER AIR OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. THE RISK FOR SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES DUE NOT ONLY TO THE WAVE
SWINGING THROUGH...BUT ALSO TO THE RATHER COLD AIR ALOFT. THIS
WILL CREATE A SCENARIO IN WHICH THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES
QUICKLY. ADDITIONALLY...WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT...RAIN SHOWERS
MAY AT TIME MIX WITH SNOW...OR PRECIPITATION MAY FALL AS GRAUPEL.
THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER THE RIDGES WHERE THERMAL
PROFILES BECOME COLD ENOUGH LATE IN THE DAY TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW ON
THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN A DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE SOUTH TO NORTH WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

TEMPERATURE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD A BLEND OF MOS WHICH IS
NEAR 5 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT. STILL
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AS DOUBT ON HOW MUCH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE. BY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MODEL
DISCREPANCIES ON HANDLING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EAST COAST MAKE
FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
AFTER DAYBREAK. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
FROM THE NORTH AS THE MIXING LAYER DEEPENS UNDER THAT FEATURE. THE
VICINITY SHOWER MENTION WILL THUS BE MAINTAINED WITH PREVAILING
WORDING OVER PORTS EAST OF PIT. RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MVFR...BUT THE INCREASED MIXING LAYER WILL SUPPORT WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20 KTS.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH
THURSDAY LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271219
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
819 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
PROVIDE CLOUDS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES. WARMER AIR MOVES BACK IN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH 815AM UPDATE...TWEAKED HOURLY TRENDS FOR CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES. HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS AND CURRENT FORECAST SEEM TO
ALIGN WELL WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE TIMING OR COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION TODAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...
CIRCLING AROUND A LARGE UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS
WAVE WILL THICKEN CLOUDS...INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
SPREAD COLDER AIR OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. THE RISK FOR SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES DUE NOT ONLY TO THE WAVE
SWINGING THROUGH...BUT ALSO TO THE RATHER COLD AIR ALOFT. THIS
WILL CREATE A SCENARIO IN WHICH THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES
QUICKLY. ADDITIONALLY...WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT...RAIN SHOWERS
MAY AT TIME MIX WITH SNOW...OR PRECIPITATION MAY FALL AS GRAUPEL.
THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER THE RIDGES WHERE THERMAL
PROFILES BECOME COLD ENOUGH LATE IN THE DAY TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW ON
THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN A DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE SOUTH TO NORTH WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

TEMPERATURE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD A BLEND OF MOS WHICH IS
NEAR 5 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT. STILL
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AS DOUBT ON HOW MUCH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE. BY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MODEL
DISCREPANCIES ON HANDLING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EAST COAST MAKE
FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
AFTER DAYBREAK. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
FROM THE NORTH AS THE MIXING LAYER DEEPENS UNDER THAT FEATURE. THE
VICINITY SHOWER MENTION WILL THUS BE MAINTAINED WITH PREVAILING
WORDING OVER PORTS EAST OF PIT. RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MVFR...BUT THE INCREASED MIXING LAYER WILL SUPPORT WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20 KTS.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH
THURSDAY LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271219
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
819 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
PROVIDE CLOUDS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES. WARMER AIR MOVES BACK IN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH 815AM UPDATE...TWEAKED HOURLY TRENDS FOR CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES. HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS AND CURRENT FORECAST SEEM TO
ALIGN WELL WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE TIMING OR COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION TODAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...
CIRCLING AROUND A LARGE UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS
WAVE WILL THICKEN CLOUDS...INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
SPREAD COLDER AIR OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. THE RISK FOR SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES DUE NOT ONLY TO THE WAVE
SWINGING THROUGH...BUT ALSO TO THE RATHER COLD AIR ALOFT. THIS
WILL CREATE A SCENARIO IN WHICH THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES
QUICKLY. ADDITIONALLY...WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT...RAIN SHOWERS
MAY AT TIME MIX WITH SNOW...OR PRECIPITATION MAY FALL AS GRAUPEL.
THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER THE RIDGES WHERE THERMAL
PROFILES BECOME COLD ENOUGH LATE IN THE DAY TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW ON
THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN A DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE SOUTH TO NORTH WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

TEMPERATURE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD A BLEND OF MOS WHICH IS
NEAR 5 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT. STILL
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AS DOUBT ON HOW MUCH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE. BY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MODEL
DISCREPANCIES ON HANDLING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EAST COAST MAKE
FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
AFTER DAYBREAK. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
FROM THE NORTH AS THE MIXING LAYER DEEPENS UNDER THAT FEATURE. THE
VICINITY SHOWER MENTION WILL THUS BE MAINTAINED WITH PREVAILING
WORDING OVER PORTS EAST OF PIT. RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MVFR...BUT THE INCREASED MIXING LAYER WILL SUPPORT WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20 KTS.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH
THURSDAY LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPHI 270925
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
525 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE BLUSTERY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC
WILL MOVE SLOWLY OUT TO SEA LATER TUESDAY. THEN WET LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY WILL INTENSIFY AS IT
PLODS NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATER THURSDAY AND THEN
SEAWARD JUST SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD SOUTH OF OUR REGION BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND UPSTATE NY EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE FEATURE
WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY.
THERE IS A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WE WILL KEEP
POPS ONLY AROUND 20 PCT...SINCE THE AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER DRY.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY
TOPPING OUT IN THE 50S FAR NORTH AND LOW 60S ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL
BE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE TO 10 TO 15
MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA AND IT
WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT AWAY FROM THE AREA. ANY SCT SHOWERS FROM THE
LATE AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING WITH THE 20 POP
CARRYING IN THE EVENING. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH A TREND TOWARD FEWER CLOUDS BY DAYBREAK TUE. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S NORTH AND LOW/MID 40S
ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE...FROM THE NW 10 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
**WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAINS MAY BE ON THE WAY HERE THURSDAY-
 FRIDAY**

500 MB:  BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS DOMINATE OUR AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING THEN A WARMING RIDGE DEVELOPS HERE SUNDAY.

THE LARGE CLOSED LOW IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
TUESDAY WEAKENS EASTWARD DURING MID WEEK. MEANWHILE A STRONG SOUTHERN
USA SHORT WAVE ON WEDNESDAY HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF BEING SCOOPED
NORTHWARD BY A SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHWARD
ALONG 83 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE. THE TWO SHOULD PHASE INTO A NEW
ROBUST CLOSED LOW ALONG OR EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES AROUND 3 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY THEN NEAR OR SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY - SATURDAY,
WITH A DEFINITE WARMING TREND TO FOLLOW NEXT SUNDAY!

HAZARDS THIS 6 DAY PERIOD: FIRE WEATHER IS A POSSIBLE CONSIDERATION
PRIOR TO THURSDAY. THURSDAY-FRIDAY IS UNCERTAIN BUT MINOR HYDRO
AND WIND ISSUES MAY DEVELOP?

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/27
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY, 00Z/27 MEX MOS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY, THEN THE 0541Z/27 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF
MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT-SKY-WIND FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

THE DAILIES...

TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING, CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AFTERNOON.
A GUSTY NNW WIND TO 20-25 MPH. CLEAR AT NIGHT. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE
AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...SUNNY (CIRRUS ARRIVES LATE DAY?) LIGHT NW-W WIND BUT
CHILLING AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES COASTS CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. EAST WIND, POSSIBLY GUSTY 20-30 MPH BY
LATE IN THE DAY. PERIODS OF RAIN LIKELY, POSSIBLY POCKETS OF HEAVY.
SMALL CHC OF A GUSTY TSTM SOUTHERN DE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE
00Z/27 GFS MODELS TT 55+, SWI -2 AND 40-50 KT 850 INFLOW.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS UNDERCUT BY 4 DEGREES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.

THE GEFS IS BECOMING EVER MORE ROBUST WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE THE
EURO REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE. UNLESS THE GEFS STARTS BACKING DOWN,
THINK WE NEED TO BE THINKING OF A DECENT STORM. STILL EARLY.

00Z/27 GEFS HAS A 20-30 PCT 48 HR PROB OF 2" IN PARTS OF OUR AREA
AND WIDESPREAD 48 HR 1 INCH AMTS. 850-925 MB ENE INFLOW IS ABOUT
3 OR 4 SD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. IF THE PHASE OCCURS - THIS
SHOULD BE QUITE A PCPN PRODUCER. 00Z NAEFS HAS SIGNIFICANT QPF AS
WELL, AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 1/2 INCH, ESPECIALLY S NJ SE PA SOUTHWARD.

CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO COASTAL STORM TRACK UNCERTAINTY.

FRIDAY...MORNING RAIN THEN CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND BLUSTERY
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS 25-35 MPH. RIGHT NOW OUR GRIDDED WIND FORECAST
LOOKS FAR TOO LOW. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO UNCERTAIN PROXIMITY OF
THE COASTAL STORM.

SURGE WILL NEED TO EXCEED 2 FEET BEFORE ITS A MINOR COASTAL FLOOD
PROBLEM,. RIGHT NOW GUIDANCE IS 1 TO 2 ABOVE NORMAL AT THE TIME
OF THE EVENING HIGH TIDES THU/FRI.



SATURDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15-20 MPH.
CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO UNCERTAIN PROXIMITY OF THE DEPARTING
COASTAL LOW.

SUNDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. MILDER. LIGHT WIND. CONFIDENCE:
AVERAGE.

OUTLOOK: A SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER
THE EASTERN STATES FOR THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF MAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WE ARE CONTINUING THE VFR TAFS FOR ALL SITES TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN
UPPER TROUGH AND A FEW EMBEDDED VORT MAXS WILL CROSS THE REGION
TODAY MOVING BASICALLY N TO S. A SHIELD OF CLOUDS ACROSS NRN PA WILL
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD EARLY TODAY AND WILL BRING BKN MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS EARLY TODAY. LATER TODAY...DAYTIME CU/SC AND MORE AC WILL
AFFECT THE REGION. THERE IS A VERY SMALL POSSIBILITY FOR A
SHOWER...BUT NONE WERE INSERTED IN THE TAFS WITH LOW CONFID IN
TIMING/LOCATION. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NW AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
EARLY...THEN PICKUP IN SPEEDS WITH SOME AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. SCT-BKN CLOUDINESS TONIGHT WITH MODERATE NW WINDS
CONTINUING.


OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR WITH PREDOMINANCE BKN CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT MIDDAY-
AFTERNOON. NNW WIND GUSTY TO 20-25 KT DIMINISHES TO LIGHT AT
NIGHT. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...VFR CLEAR WITH CIRRUS ARRIVING LATE IN THE DAY. W-NW
WIND GUSTS AOB 15 KT DURING THE DAY AND LIGHT AT NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR CIGS OCNL MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN
RAIN.  CHANCE OF A TSTM DELAWARE THU NIGHT? EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND
MAY GUST 20-30 KT LATE THU. PROBABLE IMPACT ON OPERATIONS AT KPHL.
DETAIL CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO UNCERTAIN PROXIMITY OF
THE COASTAL STORM.

FRIDAY...BLUSTERY. MORNING RAIN? OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CIGS CLEARING
AT NIGHT. N-NW WIND GUSTS 25-35KT. DETAIL CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS TODAY. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...THEN SOME COOLER AIR AND SFC
GUSTINESS WILL BRING LOW-END SCA GUSTS TO THE WATERS TONIGHT. THE
ONGOING 00Z/TUE START TIME STILL LOOKS GOOD AT THIS POINT...SO NO
CHANGES WILL BE MADE. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER TODAY WITH ONLY A SLGT CHC
OR A SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY MORNING...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR A NORTHWEST
TO NORTH WIND GUSTING TO 25 OR 30 KNOTS. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...NO MARINE HEADLINES
ARE ANTICIPATED.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
SURE FOR NE WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS BACKING TO N OR NW FRIDAY
AND FOR WAVES ON OUR OCEAN WATERS WELL IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET.
THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE 35 TO 45 KT GUSTS
LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY MORNING BUT TRACK CONFIDENCE IS BELOW
AVERAGE. CONFIDENCE ON A HEADLINE MARINE EVENT IS WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO POSSIBLY 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP AROUND 30 PERCENT IN MUCH
OF OUR REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FURTHER DAYTIME EVALUATION AND
POSSIBLE PARTNER DISCUSSIONS MAY EVENTUALLY REQUIRE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING MARGINAL MORE RAPID RATE OF SPREAD CONDITIONS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

RH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ABOUT THE SAME OR POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY LOWER
BUT WIND GUSTS ARE LESS THAN 18 MPH.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...DRAG 523
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA 523
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 270925
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
525 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE BLUSTERY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC
WILL MOVE SLOWLY OUT TO SEA LATER TUESDAY. THEN WET LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY WILL INTENSIFY AS IT
PLODS NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATER THURSDAY AND THEN
SEAWARD JUST SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD SOUTH OF OUR REGION BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND UPSTATE NY EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE FEATURE
WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY.
THERE IS A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WE WILL KEEP
POPS ONLY AROUND 20 PCT...SINCE THE AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER DRY.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY
TOPPING OUT IN THE 50S FAR NORTH AND LOW 60S ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL
BE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE TO 10 TO 15
MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA AND IT
WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT AWAY FROM THE AREA. ANY SCT SHOWERS FROM THE
LATE AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING WITH THE 20 POP
CARRYING IN THE EVENING. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH A TREND TOWARD FEWER CLOUDS BY DAYBREAK TUE. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S NORTH AND LOW/MID 40S
ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE...FROM THE NW 10 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
**WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAINS MAY BE ON THE WAY HERE THURSDAY-
 FRIDAY**

500 MB:  BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS DOMINATE OUR AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING THEN A WARMING RIDGE DEVELOPS HERE SUNDAY.

THE LARGE CLOSED LOW IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
TUESDAY WEAKENS EASTWARD DURING MID WEEK. MEANWHILE A STRONG SOUTHERN
USA SHORT WAVE ON WEDNESDAY HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF BEING SCOOPED
NORTHWARD BY A SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHWARD
ALONG 83 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE. THE TWO SHOULD PHASE INTO A NEW
ROBUST CLOSED LOW ALONG OR EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES AROUND 3 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY THEN NEAR OR SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY - SATURDAY,
WITH A DEFINITE WARMING TREND TO FOLLOW NEXT SUNDAY!

HAZARDS THIS 6 DAY PERIOD: FIRE WEATHER IS A POSSIBLE CONSIDERATION
PRIOR TO THURSDAY. THURSDAY-FRIDAY IS UNCERTAIN BUT MINOR HYDRO
AND WIND ISSUES MAY DEVELOP?

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/27
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY, 00Z/27 MEX MOS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY, THEN THE 0541Z/27 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF
MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT-SKY-WIND FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

THE DAILIES...

TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING, CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AFTERNOON.
A GUSTY NNW WIND TO 20-25 MPH. CLEAR AT NIGHT. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE
AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...SUNNY (CIRRUS ARRIVES LATE DAY?) LIGHT NW-W WIND BUT
CHILLING AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES COASTS CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. EAST WIND, POSSIBLY GUSTY 20-30 MPH BY
LATE IN THE DAY. PERIODS OF RAIN LIKELY, POSSIBLY POCKETS OF HEAVY.
SMALL CHC OF A GUSTY TSTM SOUTHERN DE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE
00Z/27 GFS MODELS TT 55+, SWI -2 AND 40-50 KT 850 INFLOW.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS UNDERCUT BY 4 DEGREES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.

THE GEFS IS BECOMING EVER MORE ROBUST WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE THE
EURO REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE. UNLESS THE GEFS STARTS BACKING DOWN,
THINK WE NEED TO BE THINKING OF A DECENT STORM. STILL EARLY.

00Z/27 GEFS HAS A 20-30 PCT 48 HR PROB OF 2" IN PARTS OF OUR AREA
AND WIDESPREAD 48 HR 1 INCH AMTS. 850-925 MB ENE INFLOW IS ABOUT
3 OR 4 SD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. IF THE PHASE OCCURS - THIS
SHOULD BE QUITE A PCPN PRODUCER. 00Z NAEFS HAS SIGNIFICANT QPF AS
WELL, AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 1/2 INCH, ESPECIALLY S NJ SE PA SOUTHWARD.

CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO COASTAL STORM TRACK UNCERTAINTY.

FRIDAY...MORNING RAIN THEN CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND BLUSTERY
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS 25-35 MPH. RIGHT NOW OUR GRIDDED WIND FORECAST
LOOKS FAR TOO LOW. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO UNCERTAIN PROXIMITY OF
THE COASTAL STORM.

SURGE WILL NEED TO EXCEED 2 FEET BEFORE ITS A MINOR COASTAL FLOOD
PROBLEM,. RIGHT NOW GUIDANCE IS 1 TO 2 ABOVE NORMAL AT THE TIME
OF THE EVENING HIGH TIDES THU/FRI.



SATURDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15-20 MPH.
CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO UNCERTAIN PROXIMITY OF THE DEPARTING
COASTAL LOW.

SUNDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. MILDER. LIGHT WIND. CONFIDENCE:
AVERAGE.

OUTLOOK: A SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER
THE EASTERN STATES FOR THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF MAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WE ARE CONTINUING THE VFR TAFS FOR ALL SITES TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN
UPPER TROUGH AND A FEW EMBEDDED VORT MAXS WILL CROSS THE REGION
TODAY MOVING BASICALLY N TO S. A SHIELD OF CLOUDS ACROSS NRN PA WILL
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD EARLY TODAY AND WILL BRING BKN MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS EARLY TODAY. LATER TODAY...DAYTIME CU/SC AND MORE AC WILL
AFFECT THE REGION. THERE IS A VERY SMALL POSSIBILITY FOR A
SHOWER...BUT NONE WERE INSERTED IN THE TAFS WITH LOW CONFID IN
TIMING/LOCATION. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NW AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
EARLY...THEN PICKUP IN SPEEDS WITH SOME AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. SCT-BKN CLOUDINESS TONIGHT WITH MODERATE NW WINDS
CONTINUING.


OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR WITH PREDOMINANCE BKN CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT MIDDAY-
AFTERNOON. NNW WIND GUSTY TO 20-25 KT DIMINISHES TO LIGHT AT
NIGHT. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...VFR CLEAR WITH CIRRUS ARRIVING LATE IN THE DAY. W-NW
WIND GUSTS AOB 15 KT DURING THE DAY AND LIGHT AT NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR CIGS OCNL MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN
RAIN.  CHANCE OF A TSTM DELAWARE THU NIGHT? EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND
MAY GUST 20-30 KT LATE THU. PROBABLE IMPACT ON OPERATIONS AT KPHL.
DETAIL CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO UNCERTAIN PROXIMITY OF
THE COASTAL STORM.

FRIDAY...BLUSTERY. MORNING RAIN? OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CIGS CLEARING
AT NIGHT. N-NW WIND GUSTS 25-35KT. DETAIL CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS TODAY. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...THEN SOME COOLER AIR AND SFC
GUSTINESS WILL BRING LOW-END SCA GUSTS TO THE WATERS TONIGHT. THE
ONGOING 00Z/TUE START TIME STILL LOOKS GOOD AT THIS POINT...SO NO
CHANGES WILL BE MADE. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER TODAY WITH ONLY A SLGT CHC
OR A SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY MORNING...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR A NORTHWEST
TO NORTH WIND GUSTING TO 25 OR 30 KNOTS. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...NO MARINE HEADLINES
ARE ANTICIPATED.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
SURE FOR NE WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS BACKING TO N OR NW FRIDAY
AND FOR WAVES ON OUR OCEAN WATERS WELL IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET.
THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE 35 TO 45 KT GUSTS
LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY MORNING BUT TRACK CONFIDENCE IS BELOW
AVERAGE. CONFIDENCE ON A HEADLINE MARINE EVENT IS WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO POSSIBLY 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP AROUND 30 PERCENT IN MUCH
OF OUR REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FURTHER DAYTIME EVALUATION AND
POSSIBLE PARTNER DISCUSSIONS MAY EVENTUALLY REQUIRE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING MARGINAL MORE RAPID RATE OF SPREAD CONDITIONS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

RH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ABOUT THE SAME OR POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY LOWER
BUT WIND GUSTS ARE LESS THAN 18 MPH.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...DRAG 523
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA 523
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270808
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
408 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
PROVIDE CLOUDS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES. WARMER AIR MOVES BACK IN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...
CIRCLING AROUND A LARGE UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS
WAVE WILL THICKEN CLOUDS...INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
SPREAD COLDER AIR OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. THE RISK FOR SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES DUE NOT ONLY TO THE WAVE
SWINGING THROUGH...BUT ALSO TO THE RATHER COLD AIR ALOFT. THIS
WILL CREATE A SCENARIO IN WHICH THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES
QUICKLY. ADDITIONALLY...WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT...RAIN SHOWERS
MAY AT TIME MIX WITH SNOW...OR PRECIPITATION MAY FALL AS GRAUPEL.
THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER THE RIDGES WHERE THERMAL
PROFILES BECOME COLD ENOUGH LATE IN THE DAY TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW ON
THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN A DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE SOUTH TO NORTH WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

TEMPERATURE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD A BLEND OF MOS WHICH IS
NEAR 5 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT. STILL
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AS DOUBT ON HOW MUCH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE. BY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MODEL
DISCREPANCIES ON HANDLING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EAST COAST MAKE
FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
AFTER DAYBREAK. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
FROM THE NORTH AS THE MIXING LAYER DEEPENS UNDER THAT FEATURE. THE
VICINITY SHOWER MENTION WILL THUS BE MAINTAINED WITH PREVAILING
WORDING OVER PORTS EAST OF PIT. RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MVFR...BUT THE INCREASED MIXING LAYER WILL SUPPORT WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20 KTS.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH
THURSDAY LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270808
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
408 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
PROVIDE CLOUDS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES. WARMER AIR MOVES BACK IN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...
CIRCLING AROUND A LARGE UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS
WAVE WILL THICKEN CLOUDS...INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
SPREAD COLDER AIR OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. THE RISK FOR SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES DUE NOT ONLY TO THE WAVE
SWINGING THROUGH...BUT ALSO TO THE RATHER COLD AIR ALOFT. THIS
WILL CREATE A SCENARIO IN WHICH THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES
QUICKLY. ADDITIONALLY...WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT...RAIN SHOWERS
MAY AT TIME MIX WITH SNOW...OR PRECIPITATION MAY FALL AS GRAUPEL.
THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER THE RIDGES WHERE THERMAL
PROFILES BECOME COLD ENOUGH LATE IN THE DAY TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW ON
THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN A DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE SOUTH TO NORTH WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

TEMPERATURE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD A BLEND OF MOS WHICH IS
NEAR 5 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT. STILL
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AS DOUBT ON HOW MUCH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE. BY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MODEL
DISCREPANCIES ON HANDLING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EAST COAST MAKE
FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
AFTER DAYBREAK. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
FROM THE NORTH AS THE MIXING LAYER DEEPENS UNDER THAT FEATURE. THE
VICINITY SHOWER MENTION WILL THUS BE MAINTAINED WITH PREVAILING
WORDING OVER PORTS EAST OF PIT. RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MVFR...BUT THE INCREASED MIXING LAYER WILL SUPPORT WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20 KTS.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH
THURSDAY LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270806
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
406 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
TODAY INTO TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STARTING OUT MNLY SKC ACRS THE FA ATTM. FOG NOT THAT EXTENSIVE NOR
SGFNT ATTM...WILL MONITOR THROUGH EARLY MRNG HRS. OTRW...BROAD
UPR LVL LO PRES EXTENDS FM CANADIAN MARITIMES TO SE GREAT LAKES.
S/W DIVING SE THROUGH THE MDATLC STATES BY THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE
RESULTING IN VRB CLDS-PCLDY W/ LO POPS...MNLY N AND E LOCATIONS.
HI TEMPS FM THE L60S NR THE BAY/OCN TO THE M/U60S ELSW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
S/W EXITS TO THE ESE THIS EVE...W/ ANY BKN CLDS AND ISOLD/SCT
PCPN DISSIPATING OVRNGT. SFC HI PRES TO CONT TO BUILD INTO RGN FM
THE NW THROUGH TUE...THEN WEAKEN/DRIFT OFF THE CST INTO WED. LO
PRES EXITING SCNTRL CONUS TUE/TUE NGT BEGINS TO TRACK THROUGH THE
GULF CST STATES ON WED...BRINGING GRADUAL INCRS IN CLDNS/MOISTURE
INTO THE MDATLC RGN. MDLS CONT TO HOLD OFF MOST OF ANY SGFNT PCPN
UNTIL LT WED. WILL MAINTAIN WILL MAINTAIN 20-40% POPS WED AFTN
SW...DRY NE.

LO TEMPS TNGT MNLY IN THE L/M40S. HI TEMPS TUE FM THE M60S AT THE
CST TO U60S-ARND 70F INLAND. LO TEMPS TUE NGT MNLY 45 TO 50F. HI
TEMPS WED FM THE M60S SW TO AROUND 70F ELSW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FORECAST BEGINNING WED NIGHT REMAINS WEIGHTED
TOWARD THE WPC/ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS LOW PRESSURE UP THE SE
COAST WED NIGHT...THEN DEEPENS THE LOW OFF THE OBX ON THURSDAY
BEFORE QUICKLY SHOVING IT WELL OUT TO SEA THURSDAY NIGHT. BASED ON
THIS SOLUTION...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) NORTH AND CHC
POPS (30-50%) ACROSS THE SOUTH WED NIGHT. WILL EXPAND CHC POPS
(30-40%) INTO NORTHERN AREAS ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH CHC TO LIKELY
POPS (50-60%) ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS (HIGHEST FAR SE)...BEFORE
DWINDLING RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PULLS AWAY. THE ECMWF DOES BRING A PIECE OF NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY
SOUTH INTO THE FA THURS NIGHT WHICH MAY ACTUALLY LINGER PCPN CHANCES
INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY. FOR NOW...WILL COVER THE POSSIBILITY WITH SLIGHT
CHC POPS. DRY WX THEN RETURNS LATER FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S THU/FRI...EXCEPT SOME UPR 50S
IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCALES. (NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.)
HIGHS THEN WARM INTO THE MID/UPR 60S AT THE COAST TO MID/UPR 70S
INLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO TUE MORNG...AS STRONG LO
PRES SPINS OVR THE NRN ATLC WHILE HI PRES BLDS SSE INTO THE UPR
MIDWEST. THERE MAY BE PATCHY GROUND FOG EARLY THIS MORNG AT THE
SITES...DUE TO LGT WINDS AND LINGERING LO LVL MOIST. OTHERWISE...A
SOMEWHAT DRIER NW OR N FLO WILL FILTER DOWN OVR THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...DRY WX AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE INTO WED
MORNG. LO PRES MOVES OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NE JUST OFF
THE SE AND MID ATLC CSTS TUE NGT INTO THU NGT WHILE INTENSIFYING.
THIS LO MAY PRODUCE PCPN WED NGT INTO THU NGT. IFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HI PRES WILL GRADUALLY BLD IN FM THE WNW TODAY THRU TUE...WHILE
STRONG LO PRES OVR THE NRN ATLC SLOWLY MOVES E. THIS WILL RESULT
IN STRONGER NW OR N WINDS LATER TODAY INTO TUE AFTN...WITH SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON ALL THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. WAVES
WILL BLD TO 3-4 FT ON THE BAY TNGT...WITH SEAS BLDNG TO 4-5 FT ON
THE OCEAN. CALMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE AFTN THRU WED NGT...THEN
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY FOR ALL WATERS
THU AFTN INTO FRI MORNG...AS LO PRES MOVES UP THE CST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ633-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270806
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
406 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
TODAY INTO TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STARTING OUT MNLY SKC ACRS THE FA ATTM. FOG NOT THAT EXTENSIVE NOR
SGFNT ATTM...WILL MONITOR THROUGH EARLY MRNG HRS. OTRW...BROAD
UPR LVL LO PRES EXTENDS FM CANADIAN MARITIMES TO SE GREAT LAKES.
S/W DIVING SE THROUGH THE MDATLC STATES BY THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE
RESULTING IN VRB CLDS-PCLDY W/ LO POPS...MNLY N AND E LOCATIONS.
HI TEMPS FM THE L60S NR THE BAY/OCN TO THE M/U60S ELSW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
S/W EXITS TO THE ESE THIS EVE...W/ ANY BKN CLDS AND ISOLD/SCT
PCPN DISSIPATING OVRNGT. SFC HI PRES TO CONT TO BUILD INTO RGN FM
THE NW THROUGH TUE...THEN WEAKEN/DRIFT OFF THE CST INTO WED. LO
PRES EXITING SCNTRL CONUS TUE/TUE NGT BEGINS TO TRACK THROUGH THE
GULF CST STATES ON WED...BRINGING GRADUAL INCRS IN CLDNS/MOISTURE
INTO THE MDATLC RGN. MDLS CONT TO HOLD OFF MOST OF ANY SGFNT PCPN
UNTIL LT WED. WILL MAINTAIN WILL MAINTAIN 20-40% POPS WED AFTN
SW...DRY NE.

LO TEMPS TNGT MNLY IN THE L/M40S. HI TEMPS TUE FM THE M60S AT THE
CST TO U60S-ARND 70F INLAND. LO TEMPS TUE NGT MNLY 45 TO 50F. HI
TEMPS WED FM THE M60S SW TO AROUND 70F ELSW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FORECAST BEGINNING WED NIGHT REMAINS WEIGHTED
TOWARD THE WPC/ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS LOW PRESSURE UP THE SE
COAST WED NIGHT...THEN DEEPENS THE LOW OFF THE OBX ON THURSDAY
BEFORE QUICKLY SHOVING IT WELL OUT TO SEA THURSDAY NIGHT. BASED ON
THIS SOLUTION...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) NORTH AND CHC
POPS (30-50%) ACROSS THE SOUTH WED NIGHT. WILL EXPAND CHC POPS
(30-40%) INTO NORTHERN AREAS ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH CHC TO LIKELY
POPS (50-60%) ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS (HIGHEST FAR SE)...BEFORE
DWINDLING RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PULLS AWAY. THE ECMWF DOES BRING A PIECE OF NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY
SOUTH INTO THE FA THURS NIGHT WHICH MAY ACTUALLY LINGER PCPN CHANCES
INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY. FOR NOW...WILL COVER THE POSSIBILITY WITH SLIGHT
CHC POPS. DRY WX THEN RETURNS LATER FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S THU/FRI...EXCEPT SOME UPR 50S
IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCALES. (NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.)
HIGHS THEN WARM INTO THE MID/UPR 60S AT THE COAST TO MID/UPR 70S
INLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO TUE MORNG...AS STRONG LO
PRES SPINS OVR THE NRN ATLC WHILE HI PRES BLDS SSE INTO THE UPR
MIDWEST. THERE MAY BE PATCHY GROUND FOG EARLY THIS MORNG AT THE
SITES...DUE TO LGT WINDS AND LINGERING LO LVL MOIST. OTHERWISE...A
SOMEWHAT DRIER NW OR N FLO WILL FILTER DOWN OVR THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...DRY WX AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE INTO WED
MORNG. LO PRES MOVES OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NE JUST OFF
THE SE AND MID ATLC CSTS TUE NGT INTO THU NGT WHILE INTENSIFYING.
THIS LO MAY PRODUCE PCPN WED NGT INTO THU NGT. IFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HI PRES WILL GRADUALLY BLD IN FM THE WNW TODAY THRU TUE...WHILE
STRONG LO PRES OVR THE NRN ATLC SLOWLY MOVES E. THIS WILL RESULT
IN STRONGER NW OR N WINDS LATER TODAY INTO TUE AFTN...WITH SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON ALL THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. WAVES
WILL BLD TO 3-4 FT ON THE BAY TNGT...WITH SEAS BLDNG TO 4-5 FT ON
THE OCEAN. CALMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE AFTN THRU WED NGT...THEN
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY FOR ALL WATERS
THU AFTN INTO FRI MORNG...AS LO PRES MOVES UP THE CST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ633-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270806
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
406 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
TODAY INTO TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STARTING OUT MNLY SKC ACRS THE FA ATTM. FOG NOT THAT EXTENSIVE NOR
SGFNT ATTM...WILL MONITOR THROUGH EARLY MRNG HRS. OTRW...BROAD
UPR LVL LO PRES EXTENDS FM CANADIAN MARITIMES TO SE GREAT LAKES.
S/W DIVING SE THROUGH THE MDATLC STATES BY THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE
RESULTING IN VRB CLDS-PCLDY W/ LO POPS...MNLY N AND E LOCATIONS.
HI TEMPS FM THE L60S NR THE BAY/OCN TO THE M/U60S ELSW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
S/W EXITS TO THE ESE THIS EVE...W/ ANY BKN CLDS AND ISOLD/SCT
PCPN DISSIPATING OVRNGT. SFC HI PRES TO CONT TO BUILD INTO RGN FM
THE NW THROUGH TUE...THEN WEAKEN/DRIFT OFF THE CST INTO WED. LO
PRES EXITING SCNTRL CONUS TUE/TUE NGT BEGINS TO TRACK THROUGH THE
GULF CST STATES ON WED...BRINGING GRADUAL INCRS IN CLDNS/MOISTURE
INTO THE MDATLC RGN. MDLS CONT TO HOLD OFF MOST OF ANY SGFNT PCPN
UNTIL LT WED. WILL MAINTAIN WILL MAINTAIN 20-40% POPS WED AFTN
SW...DRY NE.

LO TEMPS TNGT MNLY IN THE L/M40S. HI TEMPS TUE FM THE M60S AT THE
CST TO U60S-ARND 70F INLAND. LO TEMPS TUE NGT MNLY 45 TO 50F. HI
TEMPS WED FM THE M60S SW TO AROUND 70F ELSW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FORECAST BEGINNING WED NIGHT REMAINS WEIGHTED
TOWARD THE WPC/ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS LOW PRESSURE UP THE SE
COAST WED NIGHT...THEN DEEPENS THE LOW OFF THE OBX ON THURSDAY
BEFORE QUICKLY SHOVING IT WELL OUT TO SEA THURSDAY NIGHT. BASED ON
THIS SOLUTION...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) NORTH AND CHC
POPS (30-50%) ACROSS THE SOUTH WED NIGHT. WILL EXPAND CHC POPS
(30-40%) INTO NORTHERN AREAS ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH CHC TO LIKELY
POPS (50-60%) ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS (HIGHEST FAR SE)...BEFORE
DWINDLING RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PULLS AWAY. THE ECMWF DOES BRING A PIECE OF NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY
SOUTH INTO THE FA THURS NIGHT WHICH MAY ACTUALLY LINGER PCPN CHANCES
INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY. FOR NOW...WILL COVER THE POSSIBILITY WITH SLIGHT
CHC POPS. DRY WX THEN RETURNS LATER FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S THU/FRI...EXCEPT SOME UPR 50S
IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCALES. (NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.)
HIGHS THEN WARM INTO THE MID/UPR 60S AT THE COAST TO MID/UPR 70S
INLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO TUE MORNG...AS STRONG LO
PRES SPINS OVR THE NRN ATLC WHILE HI PRES BLDS SSE INTO THE UPR
MIDWEST. THERE MAY BE PATCHY GROUND FOG EARLY THIS MORNG AT THE
SITES...DUE TO LGT WINDS AND LINGERING LO LVL MOIST. OTHERWISE...A
SOMEWHAT DRIER NW OR N FLO WILL FILTER DOWN OVR THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...DRY WX AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE INTO WED
MORNG. LO PRES MOVES OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NE JUST OFF
THE SE AND MID ATLC CSTS TUE NGT INTO THU NGT WHILE INTENSIFYING.
THIS LO MAY PRODUCE PCPN WED NGT INTO THU NGT. IFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HI PRES WILL GRADUALLY BLD IN FM THE WNW TODAY THRU TUE...WHILE
STRONG LO PRES OVR THE NRN ATLC SLOWLY MOVES E. THIS WILL RESULT
IN STRONGER NW OR N WINDS LATER TODAY INTO TUE AFTN...WITH SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON ALL THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. WAVES
WILL BLD TO 3-4 FT ON THE BAY TNGT...WITH SEAS BLDNG TO 4-5 FT ON
THE OCEAN. CALMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE AFTN THRU WED NGT...THEN
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY FOR ALL WATERS
THU AFTN INTO FRI MORNG...AS LO PRES MOVES UP THE CST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ633-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270806
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
406 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
TODAY INTO TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STARTING OUT MNLY SKC ACRS THE FA ATTM. FOG NOT THAT EXTENSIVE NOR
SGFNT ATTM...WILL MONITOR THROUGH EARLY MRNG HRS. OTRW...BROAD
UPR LVL LO PRES EXTENDS FM CANADIAN MARITIMES TO SE GREAT LAKES.
S/W DIVING SE THROUGH THE MDATLC STATES BY THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE
RESULTING IN VRB CLDS-PCLDY W/ LO POPS...MNLY N AND E LOCATIONS.
HI TEMPS FM THE L60S NR THE BAY/OCN TO THE M/U60S ELSW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
S/W EXITS TO THE ESE THIS EVE...W/ ANY BKN CLDS AND ISOLD/SCT
PCPN DISSIPATING OVRNGT. SFC HI PRES TO CONT TO BUILD INTO RGN FM
THE NW THROUGH TUE...THEN WEAKEN/DRIFT OFF THE CST INTO WED. LO
PRES EXITING SCNTRL CONUS TUE/TUE NGT BEGINS TO TRACK THROUGH THE
GULF CST STATES ON WED...BRINGING GRADUAL INCRS IN CLDNS/MOISTURE
INTO THE MDATLC RGN. MDLS CONT TO HOLD OFF MOST OF ANY SGFNT PCPN
UNTIL LT WED. WILL MAINTAIN WILL MAINTAIN 20-40% POPS WED AFTN
SW...DRY NE.

LO TEMPS TNGT MNLY IN THE L/M40S. HI TEMPS TUE FM THE M60S AT THE
CST TO U60S-ARND 70F INLAND. LO TEMPS TUE NGT MNLY 45 TO 50F. HI
TEMPS WED FM THE M60S SW TO AROUND 70F ELSW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FORECAST BEGINNING WED NIGHT REMAINS WEIGHTED
TOWARD THE WPC/ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS LOW PRESSURE UP THE SE
COAST WED NIGHT...THEN DEEPENS THE LOW OFF THE OBX ON THURSDAY
BEFORE QUICKLY SHOVING IT WELL OUT TO SEA THURSDAY NIGHT. BASED ON
THIS SOLUTION...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) NORTH AND CHC
POPS (30-50%) ACROSS THE SOUTH WED NIGHT. WILL EXPAND CHC POPS
(30-40%) INTO NORTHERN AREAS ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH CHC TO LIKELY
POPS (50-60%) ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS (HIGHEST FAR SE)...BEFORE
DWINDLING RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PULLS AWAY. THE ECMWF DOES BRING A PIECE OF NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY
SOUTH INTO THE FA THURS NIGHT WHICH MAY ACTUALLY LINGER PCPN CHANCES
INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY. FOR NOW...WILL COVER THE POSSIBILITY WITH SLIGHT
CHC POPS. DRY WX THEN RETURNS LATER FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S THU/FRI...EXCEPT SOME UPR 50S
IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCALES. (NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.)
HIGHS THEN WARM INTO THE MID/UPR 60S AT THE COAST TO MID/UPR 70S
INLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO TUE MORNG...AS STRONG LO
PRES SPINS OVR THE NRN ATLC WHILE HI PRES BLDS SSE INTO THE UPR
MIDWEST. THERE MAY BE PATCHY GROUND FOG EARLY THIS MORNG AT THE
SITES...DUE TO LGT WINDS AND LINGERING LO LVL MOIST. OTHERWISE...A
SOMEWHAT DRIER NW OR N FLO WILL FILTER DOWN OVR THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...DRY WX AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE INTO WED
MORNG. LO PRES MOVES OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NE JUST OFF
THE SE AND MID ATLC CSTS TUE NGT INTO THU NGT WHILE INTENSIFYING.
THIS LO MAY PRODUCE PCPN WED NGT INTO THU NGT. IFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HI PRES WILL GRADUALLY BLD IN FM THE WNW TODAY THRU TUE...WHILE
STRONG LO PRES OVR THE NRN ATLC SLOWLY MOVES E. THIS WILL RESULT
IN STRONGER NW OR N WINDS LATER TODAY INTO TUE AFTN...WITH SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON ALL THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. WAVES
WILL BLD TO 3-4 FT ON THE BAY TNGT...WITH SEAS BLDNG TO 4-5 FT ON
THE OCEAN. CALMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE AFTN THRU WED NGT...THEN
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY FOR ALL WATERS
THU AFTN INTO FRI MORNG...AS LO PRES MOVES UP THE CST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ633-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG




000
FXUS61 KLWX 270759
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
359 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

CLR SKIES ATTM...BUT THAT WL CHG AS CLDS ACROSS PA TRACK SWD INTO
THE CWA. THIS IS IN ASSO W/ AN UPR LVL SHORT WV EMBEDDED IN WHAT
IS A SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL SYNOPTIC PTTN FOR LATE APR W/ A CLOSED LOW
SPINNING IN THE GULF OF ME. RW WL BE PSBL..PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
NWN 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA LATE THIS MRNG THRU MID AFTN.

AS HAS FRQNTLY BEEN THE CASE LATELY TEMPS XPCTD TO BE BLO NRML. W/
THE CENTRAL SHEN VLLY BEING THE LAST TO CLD OVR TEMPS SHOULD RISE
TO THE M60S...BUT MUCH OF THE RMDR OF THE FCST AREA WL TOP OUT IN
THE U50S/L60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THE SYNOPTIC PTTN IS GOING TO BE SLOW TO CHG THRU TUE: THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPR LOW LOOKS TO SPIN SLOWLY OUT TO SEA. HIGH PRES
WL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE MID ATLC DURG TUE. LOWS TNGT WL BE IN THE
L40S. W/ MORE INSOLATION TUE TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE
U60S - STILL A FEW DEGS BLO NRML.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

AN ACTIVE AND COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GULF COAST
REGION IS CERTAIN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. MODEL
DIVERGENCE FOR THE SYSTEM AS IT NEARS THE AREA TOWARD MID WEEK ADDS
UNCERTAINTY. THE 00Z VERSION OF THE ECM KEEPS A MORE SRN-STREAM
SYSTEM AND KEEPS IT AS MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE UPON ARRIVING OVER THE
ATLC COAST WED INTO THU. INSTEAD OF AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM
FROM A BACK SIDE UPPER VORT DIVING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...IT PUSHES THE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST. THE GFS HOWEVER HAS
QUITE THE AGGRESSIVE DEPICTION IN ITS 00Z RUN...TAKING A DEEPENING
UPPER CUT OFF LOW OVER THE OHIO VLY AND SLIDING IT INTO THE BACK
SIDE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD OVER THE CAROLINAS AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME.

THE ADDITION OF THIS POTENT UPPER VORT DIVING DOWN OUT OF SRN
CANADA ADDS THE ENERGY THE SYSTEM WOULD NEED TO DO AN INTENSE
PHASING...SIMILAR TO SYSTEM IN THE MIDDLE OF WINTER OVER THE MID-
ATLC. THIS AGGRESSIVE SOLN BRINGS AN INTENSE SFC LOW HUGGING THE
DELMARVA COAST LATE THU INTO FRI. GUSTY WINDS OVER THE BAY AND A
COLD RAIN OVER THE REST OF THE MID-ATLC. RAISED POPS INTO THE MED
CHANCE CATEGORIES FROM LATE WED INTO EARLY FRI...BUT STILL NOT
CONFIDENT IN GFS SOLN W/ THE INTENSITY/DURATION AND ALL THE PROPER
FACTORS COMING TOGETHER FOR SUCH AN INTENSE STORM SYSTEM. BLENDED
SOME OF THE BIAS-CORRECTED VALUES AND LEANED ON THE EURO IN A
LONG- TERM BLEND OF VARIOUS WX ELEMENTS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS.

THE MORE AGGRESSIVE AND RECENT GFS RUN KEEPS THE SYSTEM OVER THE
AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY FRI WHILE THE EURO HAS A BULK OF THE
FEATURE WELL OFF THE COAST BY THEN. EITHER WAY...A MULTI-DAY PERIOD
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FROM THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

VFR CONDS XPCTD TDA THRU TUE. A FEW RW ARE XPCTD LATE THIS
MRNG/AFTN BUT CVRG WL BE LOW SO NOT SPECIFICALLY MENTIONED IN THE
TAFS. WINDS WL GUST TO A20 KTS FM THE NW LATE THIS MRNG/AFTN.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE POSSIBLE EFFECTS OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
WILL APPROACH THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. POSSIBLY A
COUPLE OF DAYS OF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS...BUT A LESS INTENSE SOLN
WOULD BE FOR THE SYSTEM TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AND SLIDE OFF
THE ATLC COAST.

&&

.MARINE...

SCA HAS BEEN XTND FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WATERS THRU TUE. LOW
PRES IN THE GULF OF ME TDA WL TRACK SLOWLY E...BUT W/ HIGH PRES
MOVG INTO THE RGN TUE THE PRES GRAD WL RMN IN PLACE AND G20 XPCTD
THRU MID AFTN TUE.

A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH EARLY THIS WEEK
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SMALL CRAFT AND POSSIBLY GALE
CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS FROM LATE WED INTO FRI.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/GMS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 270759
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
359 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

CLR SKIES ATTM...BUT THAT WL CHG AS CLDS ACROSS PA TRACK SWD INTO
THE CWA. THIS IS IN ASSO W/ AN UPR LVL SHORT WV EMBEDDED IN WHAT
IS A SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL SYNOPTIC PTTN FOR LATE APR W/ A CLOSED LOW
SPINNING IN THE GULF OF ME. RW WL BE PSBL..PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
NWN 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA LATE THIS MRNG THRU MID AFTN.

AS HAS FRQNTLY BEEN THE CASE LATELY TEMPS XPCTD TO BE BLO NRML. W/
THE CENTRAL SHEN VLLY BEING THE LAST TO CLD OVR TEMPS SHOULD RISE
TO THE M60S...BUT MUCH OF THE RMDR OF THE FCST AREA WL TOP OUT IN
THE U50S/L60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THE SYNOPTIC PTTN IS GOING TO BE SLOW TO CHG THRU TUE: THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPR LOW LOOKS TO SPIN SLOWLY OUT TO SEA. HIGH PRES
WL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE MID ATLC DURG TUE. LOWS TNGT WL BE IN THE
L40S. W/ MORE INSOLATION TUE TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE
U60S - STILL A FEW DEGS BLO NRML.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

AN ACTIVE AND COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GULF COAST
REGION IS CERTAIN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. MODEL
DIVERGENCE FOR THE SYSTEM AS IT NEARS THE AREA TOWARD MID WEEK ADDS
UNCERTAINTY. THE 00Z VERSION OF THE ECM KEEPS A MORE SRN-STREAM
SYSTEM AND KEEPS IT AS MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE UPON ARRIVING OVER THE
ATLC COAST WED INTO THU. INSTEAD OF AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM
FROM A BACK SIDE UPPER VORT DIVING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...IT PUSHES THE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST. THE GFS HOWEVER HAS
QUITE THE AGGRESSIVE DEPICTION IN ITS 00Z RUN...TAKING A DEEPENING
UPPER CUT OFF LOW OVER THE OHIO VLY AND SLIDING IT INTO THE BACK
SIDE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD OVER THE CAROLINAS AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME.

THE ADDITION OF THIS POTENT UPPER VORT DIVING DOWN OUT OF SRN
CANADA ADDS THE ENERGY THE SYSTEM WOULD NEED TO DO AN INTENSE
PHASING...SIMILAR TO SYSTEM IN THE MIDDLE OF WINTER OVER THE MID-
ATLC. THIS AGGRESSIVE SOLN BRINGS AN INTENSE SFC LOW HUGGING THE
DELMARVA COAST LATE THU INTO FRI. GUSTY WINDS OVER THE BAY AND A
COLD RAIN OVER THE REST OF THE MID-ATLC. RAISED POPS INTO THE MED
CHANCE CATEGORIES FROM LATE WED INTO EARLY FRI...BUT STILL NOT
CONFIDENT IN GFS SOLN W/ THE INTENSITY/DURATION AND ALL THE PROPER
FACTORS COMING TOGETHER FOR SUCH AN INTENSE STORM SYSTEM. BLENDED
SOME OF THE BIAS-CORRECTED VALUES AND LEANED ON THE EURO IN A
LONG- TERM BLEND OF VARIOUS WX ELEMENTS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS.

THE MORE AGGRESSIVE AND RECENT GFS RUN KEEPS THE SYSTEM OVER THE
AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY FRI WHILE THE EURO HAS A BULK OF THE
FEATURE WELL OFF THE COAST BY THEN. EITHER WAY...A MULTI-DAY PERIOD
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FROM THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

VFR CONDS XPCTD TDA THRU TUE. A FEW RW ARE XPCTD LATE THIS
MRNG/AFTN BUT CVRG WL BE LOW SO NOT SPECIFICALLY MENTIONED IN THE
TAFS. WINDS WL GUST TO A20 KTS FM THE NW LATE THIS MRNG/AFTN.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE POSSIBLE EFFECTS OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
WILL APPROACH THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. POSSIBLY A
COUPLE OF DAYS OF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS...BUT A LESS INTENSE SOLN
WOULD BE FOR THE SYSTEM TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AND SLIDE OFF
THE ATLC COAST.

&&

.MARINE...

SCA HAS BEEN XTND FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WATERS THRU TUE. LOW
PRES IN THE GULF OF ME TDA WL TRACK SLOWLY E...BUT W/ HIGH PRES
MOVG INTO THE RGN TUE THE PRES GRAD WL RMN IN PLACE AND G20 XPCTD
THRU MID AFTN TUE.

A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH EARLY THIS WEEK
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SMALL CRAFT AND POSSIBLY GALE
CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS FROM LATE WED INTO FRI.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/GMS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 270759
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
359 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

CLR SKIES ATTM...BUT THAT WL CHG AS CLDS ACROSS PA TRACK SWD INTO
THE CWA. THIS IS IN ASSO W/ AN UPR LVL SHORT WV EMBEDDED IN WHAT
IS A SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL SYNOPTIC PTTN FOR LATE APR W/ A CLOSED LOW
SPINNING IN THE GULF OF ME. RW WL BE PSBL..PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
NWN 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA LATE THIS MRNG THRU MID AFTN.

AS HAS FRQNTLY BEEN THE CASE LATELY TEMPS XPCTD TO BE BLO NRML. W/
THE CENTRAL SHEN VLLY BEING THE LAST TO CLD OVR TEMPS SHOULD RISE
TO THE M60S...BUT MUCH OF THE RMDR OF THE FCST AREA WL TOP OUT IN
THE U50S/L60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THE SYNOPTIC PTTN IS GOING TO BE SLOW TO CHG THRU TUE: THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPR LOW LOOKS TO SPIN SLOWLY OUT TO SEA. HIGH PRES
WL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE MID ATLC DURG TUE. LOWS TNGT WL BE IN THE
L40S. W/ MORE INSOLATION TUE TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE
U60S - STILL A FEW DEGS BLO NRML.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

AN ACTIVE AND COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GULF COAST
REGION IS CERTAIN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. MODEL
DIVERGENCE FOR THE SYSTEM AS IT NEARS THE AREA TOWARD MID WEEK ADDS
UNCERTAINTY. THE 00Z VERSION OF THE ECM KEEPS A MORE SRN-STREAM
SYSTEM AND KEEPS IT AS MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE UPON ARRIVING OVER THE
ATLC COAST WED INTO THU. INSTEAD OF AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM
FROM A BACK SIDE UPPER VORT DIVING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...IT PUSHES THE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST. THE GFS HOWEVER HAS
QUITE THE AGGRESSIVE DEPICTION IN ITS 00Z RUN...TAKING A DEEPENING
UPPER CUT OFF LOW OVER THE OHIO VLY AND SLIDING IT INTO THE BACK
SIDE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD OVER THE CAROLINAS AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME.

THE ADDITION OF THIS POTENT UPPER VORT DIVING DOWN OUT OF SRN
CANADA ADDS THE ENERGY THE SYSTEM WOULD NEED TO DO AN INTENSE
PHASING...SIMILAR TO SYSTEM IN THE MIDDLE OF WINTER OVER THE MID-
ATLC. THIS AGGRESSIVE SOLN BRINGS AN INTENSE SFC LOW HUGGING THE
DELMARVA COAST LATE THU INTO FRI. GUSTY WINDS OVER THE BAY AND A
COLD RAIN OVER THE REST OF THE MID-ATLC. RAISED POPS INTO THE MED
CHANCE CATEGORIES FROM LATE WED INTO EARLY FRI...BUT STILL NOT
CONFIDENT IN GFS SOLN W/ THE INTENSITY/DURATION AND ALL THE PROPER
FACTORS COMING TOGETHER FOR SUCH AN INTENSE STORM SYSTEM. BLENDED
SOME OF THE BIAS-CORRECTED VALUES AND LEANED ON THE EURO IN A
LONG- TERM BLEND OF VARIOUS WX ELEMENTS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS.

THE MORE AGGRESSIVE AND RECENT GFS RUN KEEPS THE SYSTEM OVER THE
AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY FRI WHILE THE EURO HAS A BULK OF THE
FEATURE WELL OFF THE COAST BY THEN. EITHER WAY...A MULTI-DAY PERIOD
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FROM THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

VFR CONDS XPCTD TDA THRU TUE. A FEW RW ARE XPCTD LATE THIS
MRNG/AFTN BUT CVRG WL BE LOW SO NOT SPECIFICALLY MENTIONED IN THE
TAFS. WINDS WL GUST TO A20 KTS FM THE NW LATE THIS MRNG/AFTN.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE POSSIBLE EFFECTS OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
WILL APPROACH THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. POSSIBLY A
COUPLE OF DAYS OF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS...BUT A LESS INTENSE SOLN
WOULD BE FOR THE SYSTEM TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AND SLIDE OFF
THE ATLC COAST.

&&

.MARINE...

SCA HAS BEEN XTND FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WATERS THRU TUE. LOW
PRES IN THE GULF OF ME TDA WL TRACK SLOWLY E...BUT W/ HIGH PRES
MOVG INTO THE RGN TUE THE PRES GRAD WL RMN IN PLACE AND G20 XPCTD
THRU MID AFTN TUE.

A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH EARLY THIS WEEK
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SMALL CRAFT AND POSSIBLY GALE
CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS FROM LATE WED INTO FRI.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/GMS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 270759
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
359 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

CLR SKIES ATTM...BUT THAT WL CHG AS CLDS ACROSS PA TRACK SWD INTO
THE CWA. THIS IS IN ASSO W/ AN UPR LVL SHORT WV EMBEDDED IN WHAT
IS A SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL SYNOPTIC PTTN FOR LATE APR W/ A CLOSED LOW
SPINNING IN THE GULF OF ME. RW WL BE PSBL..PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
NWN 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA LATE THIS MRNG THRU MID AFTN.

AS HAS FRQNTLY BEEN THE CASE LATELY TEMPS XPCTD TO BE BLO NRML. W/
THE CENTRAL SHEN VLLY BEING THE LAST TO CLD OVR TEMPS SHOULD RISE
TO THE M60S...BUT MUCH OF THE RMDR OF THE FCST AREA WL TOP OUT IN
THE U50S/L60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THE SYNOPTIC PTTN IS GOING TO BE SLOW TO CHG THRU TUE: THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPR LOW LOOKS TO SPIN SLOWLY OUT TO SEA. HIGH PRES
WL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE MID ATLC DURG TUE. LOWS TNGT WL BE IN THE
L40S. W/ MORE INSOLATION TUE TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE
U60S - STILL A FEW DEGS BLO NRML.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

AN ACTIVE AND COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GULF COAST
REGION IS CERTAIN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. MODEL
DIVERGENCE FOR THE SYSTEM AS IT NEARS THE AREA TOWARD MID WEEK ADDS
UNCERTAINTY. THE 00Z VERSION OF THE ECM KEEPS A MORE SRN-STREAM
SYSTEM AND KEEPS IT AS MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE UPON ARRIVING OVER THE
ATLC COAST WED INTO THU. INSTEAD OF AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM
FROM A BACK SIDE UPPER VORT DIVING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...IT PUSHES THE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST. THE GFS HOWEVER HAS
QUITE THE AGGRESSIVE DEPICTION IN ITS 00Z RUN...TAKING A DEEPENING
UPPER CUT OFF LOW OVER THE OHIO VLY AND SLIDING IT INTO THE BACK
SIDE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD OVER THE CAROLINAS AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME.

THE ADDITION OF THIS POTENT UPPER VORT DIVING DOWN OUT OF SRN
CANADA ADDS THE ENERGY THE SYSTEM WOULD NEED TO DO AN INTENSE
PHASING...SIMILAR TO SYSTEM IN THE MIDDLE OF WINTER OVER THE MID-
ATLC. THIS AGGRESSIVE SOLN BRINGS AN INTENSE SFC LOW HUGGING THE
DELMARVA COAST LATE THU INTO FRI. GUSTY WINDS OVER THE BAY AND A
COLD RAIN OVER THE REST OF THE MID-ATLC. RAISED POPS INTO THE MED
CHANCE CATEGORIES FROM LATE WED INTO EARLY FRI...BUT STILL NOT
CONFIDENT IN GFS SOLN W/ THE INTENSITY/DURATION AND ALL THE PROPER
FACTORS COMING TOGETHER FOR SUCH AN INTENSE STORM SYSTEM. BLENDED
SOME OF THE BIAS-CORRECTED VALUES AND LEANED ON THE EURO IN A
LONG- TERM BLEND OF VARIOUS WX ELEMENTS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS.

THE MORE AGGRESSIVE AND RECENT GFS RUN KEEPS THE SYSTEM OVER THE
AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY FRI WHILE THE EURO HAS A BULK OF THE
FEATURE WELL OFF THE COAST BY THEN. EITHER WAY...A MULTI-DAY PERIOD
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FROM THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

VFR CONDS XPCTD TDA THRU TUE. A FEW RW ARE XPCTD LATE THIS
MRNG/AFTN BUT CVRG WL BE LOW SO NOT SPECIFICALLY MENTIONED IN THE
TAFS. WINDS WL GUST TO A20 KTS FM THE NW LATE THIS MRNG/AFTN.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE POSSIBLE EFFECTS OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
WILL APPROACH THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. POSSIBLY A
COUPLE OF DAYS OF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS...BUT A LESS INTENSE SOLN
WOULD BE FOR THE SYSTEM TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AND SLIDE OFF
THE ATLC COAST.

&&

.MARINE...

SCA HAS BEEN XTND FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WATERS THRU TUE. LOW
PRES IN THE GULF OF ME TDA WL TRACK SLOWLY E...BUT W/ HIGH PRES
MOVG INTO THE RGN TUE THE PRES GRAD WL RMN IN PLACE AND G20 XPCTD
THRU MID AFTN TUE.

A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH EARLY THIS WEEK
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SMALL CRAFT AND POSSIBLY GALE
CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS FROM LATE WED INTO FRI.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/GMS



000
FXUS61 KPHI 270755
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
355 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE BLUSTERY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC
WILL MOVE SLOWLY OUT TO SEA LATER TUESDAY. THEN WET LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY WILL INTENSIFY AS IT
PLODS NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATER THURSDAY AND THEN
SEAWARD JUST SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD SOUTH OF OUR REGION BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND UPSTATE NY EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE FEATURE
WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY.
THERE IS A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WE WILL KEEP
POPS ONLY AROUND 20 PCT...SINCE THE AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER DRY.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY
TOPPING OUT IN THE 50S FAR NORTH AND LOW 60S ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL
BE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE TO 10 TO 15
MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA AND IT
WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT AWAY FROM THE AREA. ANY SCT SHOWERS FROM THE
LATE AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING WITH THE 20 POP
CARRYING IN THE EVENING. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH A TREND TOWARD FEWER CLOUDS BY DAYBREAK TUE. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S NORTH AND LOW/MID 40S
ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE...FROM THE NW 10 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
**WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAINS MAY BE ON THE WAY HERE THURSDAY-
 FRIDAY**

500 MB:  BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS DOMINATE OUR AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING THEN A WARMING RIDGE DEVELOPS HERE SUNDAY.

THE LARGE CLOSED LOW IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
TUESDAY WEAKENS EASTWARD DURING MID WEEK. MEANWHILE A STRONG SOUTHERN
USA SHORT WAVE ON WEDNESDAY HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF BEING SCOOPED
NORTHWARD BY A SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHWARD
ALONG 83 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE. THE TWO SHOULD PHASE INTO A NEW
ROBUST CLOSED LOW ALONG OR EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES AROUND 3 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY THEN NEAR OR SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY - SATURDAY,
WITH A DEFINITE WARMING TREND TO FOLLOW NEXT SUNDAY!

HAZARDS THIS 6 DAY PERIOD: FIRE WEATHER IS A POSSIBLE CONSIDERATION
PRIOR TO THURSDAY. THURSDAY-FRIDAY IS UNCERTAIN BUT MINOR HYDRO
AND WIND ISSUES MAY DEVELOP?

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/27
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY, 00Z/27 MEX MOS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY, THEN THE 0541Z/27 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF
MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT-SKY-WIND FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

THE DAILIES...

TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING, CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AFTERNOON.
A GUSTY NNW WIND TO 20-25 MPH. CLEAR AT NIGHT. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE
AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...SUNNY (CIRRUS ARRIVES LATE DAY?) LIGHT NW-W WIND BUT
CHILLING AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES COASTS CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. EAST WIND, POSSIBLY GUSTY 20-30 MPH BY
LATE IN THE DAY. PERIODS OF RAIN LIKELY, POSSIBLY POCKETS OF HEAVY.
SMALL CHC OF A GUSTY TSTM SOUTHERN DE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE
00Z/27 GFS MODELS TT 55+, SWI -2 AND 40-50 KT 850 INFLOW.

THE GEFS IS BECOMING EVER MORE ROBUST WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE THE
EURO REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE. UNLESS THE GEFS STARTS BACKING DOWN,
THINK WE NEED TO BE THINKING OF A DECENT STORM. STILL EARLY.

CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO COASTAL STORM TRACK UNCERTAINTY.

FRIDAY...MORNING RAIN THEN CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND BLUSTERY
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS 25-35 MPH. RIGHT NOW OUR GRIDDED WIND FORECAST
LOOKS FAR TOO LOW. OVERALL CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO UNCERTAIN
PROXIMITY OF THE COASTAL STORM.

SATURDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15-20 MPH.
CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO UNCERTAIN PROXIMITY OF THE DEPARTING
COASTAL LOW.

SUNDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. MILDER. LIGHT WIND. CONFIDENCE:
AVERAGE.

OUTLOOK: A SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER
THE EASTERN STATES FOR THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF MAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WE ARE CONTINUING THE VFR TAFS FOR ALL SITES TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN
UPPER TROUGH AND A FEW EMBEDDED VORT MAXS WILL CROSS THE REGION
TODAY MOVING BASICALLY N TO S. A SHIELD OF CLOUDS ACROSS NRN PA WILL
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD EARLY TODAY AND WILL BRING BKN MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS EARLY TODAY. LATER TODAY...DAYTIME CU/SC AND MORE AC WILL
AFFECT THE REGION. THERE IS A VERY SMALL POSSIBILITY FOR A
SHOWER...BUT NONE WERE INSERTED IN THE TAFS WITH LOW CONFID IN
TIMING/LOCATION. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NW AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
EARLY...THEN PICKUP IN SPEEDS WITH SOME AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. SCT-BKN CLOUDINESS TONIGHT WITH MODERATE NW WINDS
CONTINUING.


OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR WITH PREDOMINANCE BKN CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT MIDDAY-
AFTERNOON. NNW WIND GUSTY TO 20-25 KT DIMINISHES TO LIGHT AT
NIGHT. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...VFR CLEAR WITH CIRRUS ARRIVING LATE IN THE DAY. W-NW
WIND GUSTS AOB 15 KT DURING THE DAY AND LIGHT AT NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR CIGS OCNL MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN
RAIN.  CHANCE OF A TSTM DELAWARE THU NIGHT? EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND
MAY GUST 20-30 KT LATE THU. PROBABLE IMPACT ON OPERATIONS AT KPHL.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS UNDERCUT BY 4 DEGREES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. DETAIL CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO UNCERTAIN
PROXIMITY OF THE COASTAL STORM.

FRIDAY...BLUSTERY. MORNING RAIN? OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CIGS CLEARING
AT NIGHT. N-NW WIND GUSTS 25-35KT. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOWERED
SEVERAL DEGREES. DETAIL CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS TODAY. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...THEN SOME COOLER AIR AND SFC
GUSTINESS WILL BRING LOW-END SCA GUSTS TO THE WATERS TONIGHT. THE
ONGOING 00Z/TUE START TIME STILL LOOKS GOOD AT THIS POINT...SO NO
CHANGES WILL BE MADE. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER TODAY WITH ONLY A SLGT CHC
OR A SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY MORNING...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR A NORTHWEST
TO NORTH WIND GUSTING TO 25 OR 30 KNOTS. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...NO MARINE HEADLINES
ARE ANTICIPATED.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
SURE FOR NE WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS BACKING TO N OR NW FRIDAY
AND FOR WAVES ON OUR OCEAN WATERS WELL IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET.
THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE 35 TO 45 KT GUSTS
LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY MORNING BUT TRACK CONFIDENCE IS BELOW
AVERAGE. CONFIDENCE ON A HEADLINE MARINE EVENT IS WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO POSSIBLY 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP AROUND 30 PERCENT IN MUCH
OF OUR REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FURTHER DAYTIME EVALUATION AND
POSSIBLE PARTNER DISCUSSIONS MAY EVENTUALLY REQUIRE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING MARGINAL MORE RAPID RATE OF SPREAD CONDITIONS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

RH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ABOUT THE SAME OR POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY LOWER
BUT WIND GUSTS ARE LESS THAN 18 MPH.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 355
NEAR TERM...O`HARA 355
SHORT TERM...O`HARA 355
LONG TERM...DRAG 355
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA 355
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA 355
FIRE WEATHER...355




000
FXUS61 KPHI 270755
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
355 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE BLUSTERY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC
WILL MOVE SLOWLY OUT TO SEA LATER TUESDAY. THEN WET LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY WILL INTENSIFY AS IT
PLODS NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATER THURSDAY AND THEN
SEAWARD JUST SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD SOUTH OF OUR REGION BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND UPSTATE NY EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE FEATURE
WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY.
THERE IS A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WE WILL KEEP
POPS ONLY AROUND 20 PCT...SINCE THE AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER DRY.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY
TOPPING OUT IN THE 50S FAR NORTH AND LOW 60S ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL
BE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE TO 10 TO 15
MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA AND IT
WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT AWAY FROM THE AREA. ANY SCT SHOWERS FROM THE
LATE AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING WITH THE 20 POP
CARRYING IN THE EVENING. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH A TREND TOWARD FEWER CLOUDS BY DAYBREAK TUE. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S NORTH AND LOW/MID 40S
ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE...FROM THE NW 10 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
**WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAINS MAY BE ON THE WAY HERE THURSDAY-
 FRIDAY**

500 MB:  BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS DOMINATE OUR AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING THEN A WARMING RIDGE DEVELOPS HERE SUNDAY.

THE LARGE CLOSED LOW IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
TUESDAY WEAKENS EASTWARD DURING MID WEEK. MEANWHILE A STRONG SOUTHERN
USA SHORT WAVE ON WEDNESDAY HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF BEING SCOOPED
NORTHWARD BY A SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHWARD
ALONG 83 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE. THE TWO SHOULD PHASE INTO A NEW
ROBUST CLOSED LOW ALONG OR EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES AROUND 3 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY THEN NEAR OR SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY - SATURDAY,
WITH A DEFINITE WARMING TREND TO FOLLOW NEXT SUNDAY!

HAZARDS THIS 6 DAY PERIOD: FIRE WEATHER IS A POSSIBLE CONSIDERATION
PRIOR TO THURSDAY. THURSDAY-FRIDAY IS UNCERTAIN BUT MINOR HYDRO
AND WIND ISSUES MAY DEVELOP?

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/27
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY, 00Z/27 MEX MOS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY, THEN THE 0541Z/27 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF
MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT-SKY-WIND FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

THE DAILIES...

TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING, CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AFTERNOON.
A GUSTY NNW WIND TO 20-25 MPH. CLEAR AT NIGHT. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE
AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...SUNNY (CIRRUS ARRIVES LATE DAY?) LIGHT NW-W WIND BUT
CHILLING AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES COASTS CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. EAST WIND, POSSIBLY GUSTY 20-30 MPH BY
LATE IN THE DAY. PERIODS OF RAIN LIKELY, POSSIBLY POCKETS OF HEAVY.
SMALL CHC OF A GUSTY TSTM SOUTHERN DE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE
00Z/27 GFS MODELS TT 55+, SWI -2 AND 40-50 KT 850 INFLOW.

THE GEFS IS BECOMING EVER MORE ROBUST WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE THE
EURO REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE. UNLESS THE GEFS STARTS BACKING DOWN,
THINK WE NEED TO BE THINKING OF A DECENT STORM. STILL EARLY.

CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO COASTAL STORM TRACK UNCERTAINTY.

FRIDAY...MORNING RAIN THEN CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND BLUSTERY
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS 25-35 MPH. RIGHT NOW OUR GRIDDED WIND FORECAST
LOOKS FAR TOO LOW. OVERALL CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO UNCERTAIN
PROXIMITY OF THE COASTAL STORM.

SATURDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15-20 MPH.
CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO UNCERTAIN PROXIMITY OF THE DEPARTING
COASTAL LOW.

SUNDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. MILDER. LIGHT WIND. CONFIDENCE:
AVERAGE.

OUTLOOK: A SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER
THE EASTERN STATES FOR THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF MAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WE ARE CONTINUING THE VFR TAFS FOR ALL SITES TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN
UPPER TROUGH AND A FEW EMBEDDED VORT MAXS WILL CROSS THE REGION
TODAY MOVING BASICALLY N TO S. A SHIELD OF CLOUDS ACROSS NRN PA WILL
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD EARLY TODAY AND WILL BRING BKN MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS EARLY TODAY. LATER TODAY...DAYTIME CU/SC AND MORE AC WILL
AFFECT THE REGION. THERE IS A VERY SMALL POSSIBILITY FOR A
SHOWER...BUT NONE WERE INSERTED IN THE TAFS WITH LOW CONFID IN
TIMING/LOCATION. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NW AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
EARLY...THEN PICKUP IN SPEEDS WITH SOME AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. SCT-BKN CLOUDINESS TONIGHT WITH MODERATE NW WINDS
CONTINUING.


OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR WITH PREDOMINANCE BKN CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT MIDDAY-
AFTERNOON. NNW WIND GUSTY TO 20-25 KT DIMINISHES TO LIGHT AT
NIGHT. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...VFR CLEAR WITH CIRRUS ARRIVING LATE IN THE DAY. W-NW
WIND GUSTS AOB 15 KT DURING THE DAY AND LIGHT AT NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR CIGS OCNL MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN
RAIN.  CHANCE OF A TSTM DELAWARE THU NIGHT? EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND
MAY GUST 20-30 KT LATE THU. PROBABLE IMPACT ON OPERATIONS AT KPHL.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS UNDERCUT BY 4 DEGREES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. DETAIL CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO UNCERTAIN
PROXIMITY OF THE COASTAL STORM.

FRIDAY...BLUSTERY. MORNING RAIN? OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CIGS CLEARING
AT NIGHT. N-NW WIND GUSTS 25-35KT. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOWERED
SEVERAL DEGREES. DETAIL CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS TODAY. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...THEN SOME COOLER AIR AND SFC
GUSTINESS WILL BRING LOW-END SCA GUSTS TO THE WATERS TONIGHT. THE
ONGOING 00Z/TUE START TIME STILL LOOKS GOOD AT THIS POINT...SO NO
CHANGES WILL BE MADE. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER TODAY WITH ONLY A SLGT CHC
OR A SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY MORNING...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR A NORTHWEST
TO NORTH WIND GUSTING TO 25 OR 30 KNOTS. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...NO MARINE HEADLINES
ARE ANTICIPATED.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
SURE FOR NE WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS BACKING TO N OR NW FRIDAY
AND FOR WAVES ON OUR OCEAN WATERS WELL IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET.
THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE 35 TO 45 KT GUSTS
LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY MORNING BUT TRACK CONFIDENCE IS BELOW
AVERAGE. CONFIDENCE ON A HEADLINE MARINE EVENT IS WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO POSSIBLY 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP AROUND 30 PERCENT IN MUCH
OF OUR REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FURTHER DAYTIME EVALUATION AND
POSSIBLE PARTNER DISCUSSIONS MAY EVENTUALLY REQUIRE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING MARGINAL MORE RAPID RATE OF SPREAD CONDITIONS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

RH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ABOUT THE SAME OR POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY LOWER
BUT WIND GUSTS ARE LESS THAN 18 MPH.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 355
NEAR TERM...O`HARA 355
SHORT TERM...O`HARA 355
LONG TERM...DRAG 355
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA 355
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA 355
FIRE WEATHER...355




000
FXUS61 KPHI 270755
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
355 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE BLUSTERY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC
WILL MOVE SLOWLY OUT TO SEA LATER TUESDAY. THEN WET LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY WILL INTENSIFY AS IT
PLODS NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATER THURSDAY AND THEN
SEAWARD JUST SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD SOUTH OF OUR REGION BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND UPSTATE NY EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE FEATURE
WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY.
THERE IS A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WE WILL KEEP
POPS ONLY AROUND 20 PCT...SINCE THE AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER DRY.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY
TOPPING OUT IN THE 50S FAR NORTH AND LOW 60S ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL
BE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE TO 10 TO 15
MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA AND IT
WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT AWAY FROM THE AREA. ANY SCT SHOWERS FROM THE
LATE AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING WITH THE 20 POP
CARRYING IN THE EVENING. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH A TREND TOWARD FEWER CLOUDS BY DAYBREAK TUE. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S NORTH AND LOW/MID 40S
ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE...FROM THE NW 10 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
**WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAINS MAY BE ON THE WAY HERE THURSDAY-
 FRIDAY**

500 MB:  BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS DOMINATE OUR AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING THEN A WARMING RIDGE DEVELOPS HERE SUNDAY.

THE LARGE CLOSED LOW IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
TUESDAY WEAKENS EASTWARD DURING MID WEEK. MEANWHILE A STRONG SOUTHERN
USA SHORT WAVE ON WEDNESDAY HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF BEING SCOOPED
NORTHWARD BY A SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHWARD
ALONG 83 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE. THE TWO SHOULD PHASE INTO A NEW
ROBUST CLOSED LOW ALONG OR EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES AROUND 3 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY THEN NEAR OR SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY - SATURDAY,
WITH A DEFINITE WARMING TREND TO FOLLOW NEXT SUNDAY!

HAZARDS THIS 6 DAY PERIOD: FIRE WEATHER IS A POSSIBLE CONSIDERATION
PRIOR TO THURSDAY. THURSDAY-FRIDAY IS UNCERTAIN BUT MINOR HYDRO
AND WIND ISSUES MAY DEVELOP?

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/27
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY, 00Z/27 MEX MOS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY, THEN THE 0541Z/27 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF
MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT-SKY-WIND FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

THE DAILIES...

TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING, CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AFTERNOON.
A GUSTY NNW WIND TO 20-25 MPH. CLEAR AT NIGHT. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE
AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...SUNNY (CIRRUS ARRIVES LATE DAY?) LIGHT NW-W WIND BUT
CHILLING AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES COASTS CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. EAST WIND, POSSIBLY GUSTY 20-30 MPH BY
LATE IN THE DAY. PERIODS OF RAIN LIKELY, POSSIBLY POCKETS OF HEAVY.
SMALL CHC OF A GUSTY TSTM SOUTHERN DE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE
00Z/27 GFS MODELS TT 55+, SWI -2 AND 40-50 KT 850 INFLOW.

THE GEFS IS BECOMING EVER MORE ROBUST WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE THE
EURO REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE. UNLESS THE GEFS STARTS BACKING DOWN,
THINK WE NEED TO BE THINKING OF A DECENT STORM. STILL EARLY.

CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO COASTAL STORM TRACK UNCERTAINTY.

FRIDAY...MORNING RAIN THEN CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND BLUSTERY
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS 25-35 MPH. RIGHT NOW OUR GRIDDED WIND FORECAST
LOOKS FAR TOO LOW. OVERALL CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO UNCERTAIN
PROXIMITY OF THE COASTAL STORM.

SATURDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15-20 MPH.
CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO UNCERTAIN PROXIMITY OF THE DEPARTING
COASTAL LOW.

SUNDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. MILDER. LIGHT WIND. CONFIDENCE:
AVERAGE.

OUTLOOK: A SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER
THE EASTERN STATES FOR THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF MAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WE ARE CONTINUING THE VFR TAFS FOR ALL SITES TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN
UPPER TROUGH AND A FEW EMBEDDED VORT MAXS WILL CROSS THE REGION
TODAY MOVING BASICALLY N TO S. A SHIELD OF CLOUDS ACROSS NRN PA WILL
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD EARLY TODAY AND WILL BRING BKN MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS EARLY TODAY. LATER TODAY...DAYTIME CU/SC AND MORE AC WILL
AFFECT THE REGION. THERE IS A VERY SMALL POSSIBILITY FOR A
SHOWER...BUT NONE WERE INSERTED IN THE TAFS WITH LOW CONFID IN
TIMING/LOCATION. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NW AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
EARLY...THEN PICKUP IN SPEEDS WITH SOME AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. SCT-BKN CLOUDINESS TONIGHT WITH MODERATE NW WINDS
CONTINUING.


OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR WITH PREDOMINANCE BKN CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT MIDDAY-
AFTERNOON. NNW WIND GUSTY TO 20-25 KT DIMINISHES TO LIGHT AT
NIGHT. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...VFR CLEAR WITH CIRRUS ARRIVING LATE IN THE DAY. W-NW
WIND GUSTS AOB 15 KT DURING THE DAY AND LIGHT AT NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR CIGS OCNL MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN
RAIN.  CHANCE OF A TSTM DELAWARE THU NIGHT? EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND
MAY GUST 20-30 KT LATE THU. PROBABLE IMPACT ON OPERATIONS AT KPHL.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS UNDERCUT BY 4 DEGREES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. DETAIL CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO UNCERTAIN
PROXIMITY OF THE COASTAL STORM.

FRIDAY...BLUSTERY. MORNING RAIN? OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CIGS CLEARING
AT NIGHT. N-NW WIND GUSTS 25-35KT. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOWERED
SEVERAL DEGREES. DETAIL CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS TODAY. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...THEN SOME COOLER AIR AND SFC
GUSTINESS WILL BRING LOW-END SCA GUSTS TO THE WATERS TONIGHT. THE
ONGOING 00Z/TUE START TIME STILL LOOKS GOOD AT THIS POINT...SO NO
CHANGES WILL BE MADE. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER TODAY WITH ONLY A SLGT CHC
OR A SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY MORNING...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR A NORTHWEST
TO NORTH WIND GUSTING TO 25 OR 30 KNOTS. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...NO MARINE HEADLINES
ARE ANTICIPATED.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
SURE FOR NE WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS BACKING TO N OR NW FRIDAY
AND FOR WAVES ON OUR OCEAN WATERS WELL IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET.
THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE 35 TO 45 KT GUSTS
LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY MORNING BUT TRACK CONFIDENCE IS BELOW
AVERAGE. CONFIDENCE ON A HEADLINE MARINE EVENT IS WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO POSSIBLY 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP AROUND 30 PERCENT IN MUCH
OF OUR REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FURTHER DAYTIME EVALUATION AND
POSSIBLE PARTNER DISCUSSIONS MAY EVENTUALLY REQUIRE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING MARGINAL MORE RAPID RATE OF SPREAD CONDITIONS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

RH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ABOUT THE SAME OR POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY LOWER
BUT WIND GUSTS ARE LESS THAN 18 MPH.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 355
NEAR TERM...O`HARA 355
SHORT TERM...O`HARA 355
LONG TERM...DRAG 355
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA 355
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA 355
FIRE WEATHER...355




000
FXUS61 KPHI 270755
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
355 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE BLUSTERY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC
WILL MOVE SLOWLY OUT TO SEA LATER TUESDAY. THEN WET LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY WILL INTENSIFY AS IT
PLODS NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATER THURSDAY AND THEN
SEAWARD JUST SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD SOUTH OF OUR REGION BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND UPSTATE NY EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE FEATURE
WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY.
THERE IS A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WE WILL KEEP
POPS ONLY AROUND 20 PCT...SINCE THE AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER DRY.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY
TOPPING OUT IN THE 50S FAR NORTH AND LOW 60S ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL
BE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE TO 10 TO 15
MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA AND IT
WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT AWAY FROM THE AREA. ANY SCT SHOWERS FROM THE
LATE AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING WITH THE 20 POP
CARRYING IN THE EVENING. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH A TREND TOWARD FEWER CLOUDS BY DAYBREAK TUE. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S NORTH AND LOW/MID 40S
ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE...FROM THE NW 10 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
**WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAINS MAY BE ON THE WAY HERE THURSDAY-
 FRIDAY**

500 MB:  BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS DOMINATE OUR AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING THEN A WARMING RIDGE DEVELOPS HERE SUNDAY.

THE LARGE CLOSED LOW IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
TUESDAY WEAKENS EASTWARD DURING MID WEEK. MEANWHILE A STRONG SOUTHERN
USA SHORT WAVE ON WEDNESDAY HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF BEING SCOOPED
NORTHWARD BY A SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHWARD
ALONG 83 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE. THE TWO SHOULD PHASE INTO A NEW
ROBUST CLOSED LOW ALONG OR EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES AROUND 3 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY THEN NEAR OR SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY - SATURDAY,
WITH A DEFINITE WARMING TREND TO FOLLOW NEXT SUNDAY!

HAZARDS THIS 6 DAY PERIOD: FIRE WEATHER IS A POSSIBLE CONSIDERATION
PRIOR TO THURSDAY. THURSDAY-FRIDAY IS UNCERTAIN BUT MINOR HYDRO
AND WIND ISSUES MAY DEVELOP?

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/27
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY, 00Z/27 MEX MOS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY, THEN THE 0541Z/27 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF
MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT-SKY-WIND FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

THE DAILIES...

TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING, CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AFTERNOON.
A GUSTY NNW WIND TO 20-25 MPH. CLEAR AT NIGHT. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE
AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...SUNNY (CIRRUS ARRIVES LATE DAY?) LIGHT NW-W WIND BUT
CHILLING AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES COASTS CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. EAST WIND, POSSIBLY GUSTY 20-30 MPH BY
LATE IN THE DAY. PERIODS OF RAIN LIKELY, POSSIBLY POCKETS OF HEAVY.
SMALL CHC OF A GUSTY TSTM SOUTHERN DE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE
00Z/27 GFS MODELS TT 55+, SWI -2 AND 40-50 KT 850 INFLOW.

THE GEFS IS BECOMING EVER MORE ROBUST WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE THE
EURO REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE. UNLESS THE GEFS STARTS BACKING DOWN,
THINK WE NEED TO BE THINKING OF A DECENT STORM. STILL EARLY.

CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO COASTAL STORM TRACK UNCERTAINTY.

FRIDAY...MORNING RAIN THEN CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND BLUSTERY
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS 25-35 MPH. RIGHT NOW OUR GRIDDED WIND FORECAST
LOOKS FAR TOO LOW. OVERALL CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO UNCERTAIN
PROXIMITY OF THE COASTAL STORM.

SATURDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15-20 MPH.
CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO UNCERTAIN PROXIMITY OF THE DEPARTING
COASTAL LOW.

SUNDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. MILDER. LIGHT WIND. CONFIDENCE:
AVERAGE.

OUTLOOK: A SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER
THE EASTERN STATES FOR THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF MAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WE ARE CONTINUING THE VFR TAFS FOR ALL SITES TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN
UPPER TROUGH AND A FEW EMBEDDED VORT MAXS WILL CROSS THE REGION
TODAY MOVING BASICALLY N TO S. A SHIELD OF CLOUDS ACROSS NRN PA WILL
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD EARLY TODAY AND WILL BRING BKN MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS EARLY TODAY. LATER TODAY...DAYTIME CU/SC AND MORE AC WILL
AFFECT THE REGION. THERE IS A VERY SMALL POSSIBILITY FOR A
SHOWER...BUT NONE WERE INSERTED IN THE TAFS WITH LOW CONFID IN
TIMING/LOCATION. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NW AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
EARLY...THEN PICKUP IN SPEEDS WITH SOME AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. SCT-BKN CLOUDINESS TONIGHT WITH MODERATE NW WINDS
CONTINUING.


OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR WITH PREDOMINANCE BKN CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT MIDDAY-
AFTERNOON. NNW WIND GUSTY TO 20-25 KT DIMINISHES TO LIGHT AT
NIGHT. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...VFR CLEAR WITH CIRRUS ARRIVING LATE IN THE DAY. W-NW
WIND GUSTS AOB 15 KT DURING THE DAY AND LIGHT AT NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR CIGS OCNL MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN
RAIN.  CHANCE OF A TSTM DELAWARE THU NIGHT? EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND
MAY GUST 20-30 KT LATE THU. PROBABLE IMPACT ON OPERATIONS AT KPHL.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS UNDERCUT BY 4 DEGREES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. DETAIL CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO UNCERTAIN
PROXIMITY OF THE COASTAL STORM.

FRIDAY...BLUSTERY. MORNING RAIN? OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CIGS CLEARING
AT NIGHT. N-NW WIND GUSTS 25-35KT. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOWERED
SEVERAL DEGREES. DETAIL CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS TODAY. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...THEN SOME COOLER AIR AND SFC
GUSTINESS WILL BRING LOW-END SCA GUSTS TO THE WATERS TONIGHT. THE
ONGOING 00Z/TUE START TIME STILL LOOKS GOOD AT THIS POINT...SO NO
CHANGES WILL BE MADE. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER TODAY WITH ONLY A SLGT CHC
OR A SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY MORNING...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR A NORTHWEST
TO NORTH WIND GUSTING TO 25 OR 30 KNOTS. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...NO MARINE HEADLINES
ARE ANTICIPATED.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
SURE FOR NE WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS BACKING TO N OR NW FRIDAY
AND FOR WAVES ON OUR OCEAN WATERS WELL IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET.
THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE 35 TO 45 KT GUSTS
LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY MORNING BUT TRACK CONFIDENCE IS BELOW
AVERAGE. CONFIDENCE ON A HEADLINE MARINE EVENT IS WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO POSSIBLY 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP AROUND 30 PERCENT IN MUCH
OF OUR REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FURTHER DAYTIME EVALUATION AND
POSSIBLE PARTNER DISCUSSIONS MAY EVENTUALLY REQUIRE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING MARGINAL MORE RAPID RATE OF SPREAD CONDITIONS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

RH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ABOUT THE SAME OR POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY LOWER
BUT WIND GUSTS ARE LESS THAN 18 MPH.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 355
NEAR TERM...O`HARA 355
SHORT TERM...O`HARA 355
LONG TERM...DRAG 355
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA 355
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA 355
FIRE WEATHER...355




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270731
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
331 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
TODAY INTO TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STARTING OUT MNLY SKC ACRS THE FA ATTM. FOG NOT THAT EXTENSIVE NOR
SGFNT ATTM...WILL MONITOR THROUGH EARLY MRNG HRS. OTRW...BROAD
UPR LVL LO PRES EXTENDS FM CANADIAN MARITIMES TO SE GREAT LAKES.
S/W DIVING SE THROUGH THE MDATLC STATES BY THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE
RESULTING IN VRB CLDS-PCLDY W/ LO POPS...MNLY N AND E LOCATIONS.
HI TEMPS FM THE L60S NR THE BAY/OCN TO THE M/U60S ELSW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
S/W EXITS TO THE ESE THIS EVE...W/ ANY BKN CLDS AND ISOLD/SCT
PCPN DISSIPATING OVRNGT. SFC HI PRES TO CONT TO BUILD INTO RGN FM
THE NW THROUGH TUE...THEN WEAKEN/DRIFT OFF THE CST INTO WED. LO
PRES EXITING SCNTRL CONUS TUE/TUE NGT BEGINS TO TRACK THROUGH THE
GULF CST STATES ON WED...BRINGING GRADUAL INCRS IN CLDNS/MOISTURE
INTO THE MDATLC RGN. MDLS CONT TO HOLD OFF MOST OF ANY SGFNT PCPN
UNTIL LT WED. WILL MAINTAIN WILL MAINTAIN 20-40% POPS WED AFTN
SW...DRY NE.

LO TEMPS TNGT MNLY IN THE L/M40S. HI TEMPS TUE FM THE M60S AT THE
CST TO U60S-ARND 70F INLAND. LO TEMPS TUE NGT MNLY 45 TO 50F. HI
TEMPS WED FM THE M60S SW TO AROUND 70F ELSW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FORECAST BEGINNING WED NIGHT REMAINS WEIGHTED
TOWARD THE WPC/ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS LOW PRESSURE UP THE SE
COAST WED NIGHT...THEN DEEPENS THE LOW OFF THE OBX ON THURSDAY
BEFORE QUICKLY SHOVING IT WELL OUT TO SEA THURSDAY NIGHT. BASED ON
THIS SOLUTION...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) NORTH AND CHC
POPS (30-50%) ACROSS THE SOUTH WED NIGHT. WILL EXPAND CHC POPS
(30-40%) INTO NORTHERN AREAS ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH CHC TO LIKELY
POPS (50-60%) ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS (HIGHEST FAR SE)...BEFORE
DWINDLING RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PULLS AWAY. THE ECMWF DOES BRING A PIECE OF NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY
SOUTH INTO THE FA THURS NIGHT WHICH MAY ACTUALLY LINGER PCPN CHANCES
INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY. FOR NOW...WILL COVER THE POSSIBILITY WITH SLIGHT
CHC POPS. DRY WX THEN RETURNS LATER FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S THU/FRI...EXCEPT SOME UPR 50S
IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCALES. (NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.)
HIGHS THEN WARM INTO THE MID/UPR 60S AT THE COAST TO MID/UPR 70S
INLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO TUE MORNG...AS STRONG LO
PRES SPINS OVR THE NRN ATLC WHILE HI PRES BLDS SSE INTO THE UPR
MIDWEST. THERE MAY BE PATCHY GROUND FOG EARLY THIS MORNG AT THE
SITES...DUE TO LGT WINDS AND LINGERING LO LVL MOIST. OTHERWISE...A
SOMEWHAT DRIER NW OR N FLO WILL FILTER DOWN OVR THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...DRY WX AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE INTO WED
MORNG. LO PRES MOVES OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NE JUST OFF
THE SE AND MID ATLC CSTS TUE NGT INTO THU NGT WHILE INTENSIFYING.
THIS LO MAY PRODUCE PCPN WED NGT INTO THU NGT. IFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THRU MIDDAY MONDAY
FOR RELATIVELY LIGHT N-NW WINDS. LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS TO THE LOCAL AREA LATE
MONDAY THRU TUES MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL THE
WATERS DURING THIS TIME. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT ON THE BAY MON
NIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-5 FT ON THE OCEAN. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TUE AFTN THRU WED NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS
IS LIKELY FOR ALL WATERS THU/FRI AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE
COAST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ633-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270731
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
331 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
TODAY INTO TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STARTING OUT MNLY SKC ACRS THE FA ATTM. FOG NOT THAT EXTENSIVE NOR
SGFNT ATTM...WILL MONITOR THROUGH EARLY MRNG HRS. OTRW...BROAD
UPR LVL LO PRES EXTENDS FM CANADIAN MARITIMES TO SE GREAT LAKES.
S/W DIVING SE THROUGH THE MDATLC STATES BY THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE
RESULTING IN VRB CLDS-PCLDY W/ LO POPS...MNLY N AND E LOCATIONS.
HI TEMPS FM THE L60S NR THE BAY/OCN TO THE M/U60S ELSW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
S/W EXITS TO THE ESE THIS EVE...W/ ANY BKN CLDS AND ISOLD/SCT
PCPN DISSIPATING OVRNGT. SFC HI PRES TO CONT TO BUILD INTO RGN FM
THE NW THROUGH TUE...THEN WEAKEN/DRIFT OFF THE CST INTO WED. LO
PRES EXITING SCNTRL CONUS TUE/TUE NGT BEGINS TO TRACK THROUGH THE
GULF CST STATES ON WED...BRINGING GRADUAL INCRS IN CLDNS/MOISTURE
INTO THE MDATLC RGN. MDLS CONT TO HOLD OFF MOST OF ANY SGFNT PCPN
UNTIL LT WED. WILL MAINTAIN WILL MAINTAIN 20-40% POPS WED AFTN
SW...DRY NE.

LO TEMPS TNGT MNLY IN THE L/M40S. HI TEMPS TUE FM THE M60S AT THE
CST TO U60S-ARND 70F INLAND. LO TEMPS TUE NGT MNLY 45 TO 50F. HI
TEMPS WED FM THE M60S SW TO AROUND 70F ELSW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FORECAST BEGINNING WED NIGHT REMAINS WEIGHTED
TOWARD THE WPC/ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS LOW PRESSURE UP THE SE
COAST WED NIGHT...THEN DEEPENS THE LOW OFF THE OBX ON THURSDAY
BEFORE QUICKLY SHOVING IT WELL OUT TO SEA THURSDAY NIGHT. BASED ON
THIS SOLUTION...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) NORTH AND CHC
POPS (30-50%) ACROSS THE SOUTH WED NIGHT. WILL EXPAND CHC POPS
(30-40%) INTO NORTHERN AREAS ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH CHC TO LIKELY
POPS (50-60%) ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS (HIGHEST FAR SE)...BEFORE
DWINDLING RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PULLS AWAY. THE ECMWF DOES BRING A PIECE OF NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY
SOUTH INTO THE FA THURS NIGHT WHICH MAY ACTUALLY LINGER PCPN CHANCES
INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY. FOR NOW...WILL COVER THE POSSIBILITY WITH SLIGHT
CHC POPS. DRY WX THEN RETURNS LATER FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S THU/FRI...EXCEPT SOME UPR 50S
IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCALES. (NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.)
HIGHS THEN WARM INTO THE MID/UPR 60S AT THE COAST TO MID/UPR 70S
INLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO TUE MORNG...AS STRONG LO
PRES SPINS OVR THE NRN ATLC WHILE HI PRES BLDS SSE INTO THE UPR
MIDWEST. THERE MAY BE PATCHY GROUND FOG EARLY THIS MORNG AT THE
SITES...DUE TO LGT WINDS AND LINGERING LO LVL MOIST. OTHERWISE...A
SOMEWHAT DRIER NW OR N FLO WILL FILTER DOWN OVR THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...DRY WX AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE INTO WED
MORNG. LO PRES MOVES OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NE JUST OFF
THE SE AND MID ATLC CSTS TUE NGT INTO THU NGT WHILE INTENSIFYING.
THIS LO MAY PRODUCE PCPN WED NGT INTO THU NGT. IFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THRU MIDDAY MONDAY
FOR RELATIVELY LIGHT N-NW WINDS. LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS TO THE LOCAL AREA LATE
MONDAY THRU TUES MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL THE
WATERS DURING THIS TIME. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT ON THE BAY MON
NIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-5 FT ON THE OCEAN. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TUE AFTN THRU WED NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS
IS LIKELY FOR ALL WATERS THU/FRI AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE
COAST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ633-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270556
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
156 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE CURRENT ANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST...WITH THE TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH MUCH
OF SC AND NRN GA. HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
CANADA...BUT THERE HAS BEEN JUST ENOUGH NW CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
THAT HAS ENABLED THE SURFACE RIDGE TO EXTEND INTO THE LOCAL AREA.
THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR CLEARING ACROSS THE N...WHILE SRN VA/NE NC
REMAINS PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING AVERAGE
IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. THE ONLY MINOR CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS
FOG...AND THIS WOULD MAINLY BE ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA AND INTERIOR NE
NC WHERE DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGHER. THESE VALUES REMAIN HIGHER
HOWEVER DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER. AREAS TO THE N THAT HAVE
CLEARED HAVE EXPERIENCED DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S.
ADDITIONALLY...THE PATTERN IS NOT REALLY IDEAL FOR FOG AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE DOES NOT BUILD OVER THE REGION...AND SOME ADDITIONAL
MIXING IS POSSIBLE. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP FOG OUT OF THE GRIDDED
FORECAST. LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM 40-45F...BUT SOME INTERIOR
SECTIONS COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
BROAD UPR LVL LO PRES EXTENDING FM CANADIAN MARITIMES TO SE GREAT LAKES
WILL RMN IN PLACE THROUGH MON NIGHT. S/W DIVING SE THROUGH THE
MDATLC STATES ON MON BRINGS VRB CLDS AND LO POPS - ESP N AND E
LOCATIONS (ALG W/ CONTD COOL CONDS). HI TEMPS MON IN THE L60S NE
TO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 60S ELSW. BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR MON
NIGHT...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER ON TUE W/ INCREASED AMTS OF
SUNSHINE...HIGHS MNLY INTO THE MID 60S AT THE COAST TO U60S TO
AROUND 70 F INLAND. INCREASING CLOUDS/MOISTURE ON WED AS SFC HIGH
DRIFTS OFF THE COAST...THOUGH BULK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND POPS LOOK
TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE WED...WILL MAINTAIN 20-40% POPS IN THE AFTN
SW...DRY NE. HIGHS INTO THE MID 60S SW TO AROUND 70 F ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FORECAST BEGINNING WED NIGHT REMAINS WEIGHTED
TOWARD THE WPC/ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS LOW PRESSURE UP THE SE
COAST WED NIGHT...THEN DEEPENS THE LOW OFF THE OBX ON THURSDAY
BEFORE QUICKLY SHOVING IT WELL OUT TO SEA THURSDAY NIGHT. BASED ON
THIS SOLUTION...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) NORTH AND CHC
POPS (30-50%) ACROSS THE SOUTH WED NIGHT. WILL EXPAND CHC POPS
(30-40%) INTO NORTHERN AREAS ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH CHC TO LIKELY
POPS (50-60%) ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS (HIGHEST FAR SE)...BEFORE
DWINDLING RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PULLS AWAY. THE ECMWF DOES BRING A PIECE OF NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY
SOUTH INTO THE FA THURS NIGHT WHICH MAY ACTUALLY LINGER PCPN CHANCES
INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY. FOR NOW...WILL COVER THE POSSIBILITY WITH SLIGHT
CHC POPS. DRY WX THEN RETURNS LATER FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S THU/FRI...EXCEPT SOME UPR 50S
IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCALES. (NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.)
HIGHS THEN WARM INTO THE MID/UPR 60S AT THE COAST TO MID/UPR 70S
INLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO TUE MORNG...AS STRONG LO
PRES SPINS OVR THE NRN ATLC WHILE HI PRES BLDS SSE INTO THE UPR
MIDWEST. THERE MAY BE PATCHY GROUND FOG EARLY THIS MORNG AT THE
SITES...DUE TO LGT WINDS AND LINGERING LO LVL MOIST. OTHERWISE...A
SOMEWHAT DRIER NW OR N FLO WILL FILTER DOWN OVR THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...DRY WX AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE INTO WED
MORNG. LO PRES MOVES OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NE JUST OFF
THE SE AND MID ATLC CSTS TUE NGT INTO THU NGT WHILE INTENSIFYING.
THIS LO MAY PRODUCE PCPN WED NGT INTO THU NGT. IFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THRU MIDDAY MONDAY
FOR RELATIVELY LIGHT N-NW WINDS. LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS TO THE LOCAL AREA LATE
MONDAY THRU TUES MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL THE
WATERS DURING THIS TIME. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT ON THE BAY MON
NIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-5 FT ON THE OCEAN. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TUE AFTN THRU WED NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS
IS LIKELY FOR ALL WATERS THU/FRI AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE
COAST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ633-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...JDM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270556
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
156 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE CURRENT ANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST...WITH THE TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH MUCH
OF SC AND NRN GA. HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
CANADA...BUT THERE HAS BEEN JUST ENOUGH NW CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
THAT HAS ENABLED THE SURFACE RIDGE TO EXTEND INTO THE LOCAL AREA.
THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR CLEARING ACROSS THE N...WHILE SRN VA/NE NC
REMAINS PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING AVERAGE
IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. THE ONLY MINOR CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS
FOG...AND THIS WOULD MAINLY BE ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA AND INTERIOR NE
NC WHERE DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGHER. THESE VALUES REMAIN HIGHER
HOWEVER DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER. AREAS TO THE N THAT HAVE
CLEARED HAVE EXPERIENCED DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S.
ADDITIONALLY...THE PATTERN IS NOT REALLY IDEAL FOR FOG AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE DOES NOT BUILD OVER THE REGION...AND SOME ADDITIONAL
MIXING IS POSSIBLE. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP FOG OUT OF THE GRIDDED
FORECAST. LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM 40-45F...BUT SOME INTERIOR
SECTIONS COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
BROAD UPR LVL LO PRES EXTENDING FM CANADIAN MARITIMES TO SE GREAT LAKES
WILL RMN IN PLACE THROUGH MON NIGHT. S/W DIVING SE THROUGH THE
MDATLC STATES ON MON BRINGS VRB CLDS AND LO POPS - ESP N AND E
LOCATIONS (ALG W/ CONTD COOL CONDS). HI TEMPS MON IN THE L60S NE
TO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 60S ELSW. BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR MON
NIGHT...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER ON TUE W/ INCREASED AMTS OF
SUNSHINE...HIGHS MNLY INTO THE MID 60S AT THE COAST TO U60S TO
AROUND 70 F INLAND. INCREASING CLOUDS/MOISTURE ON WED AS SFC HIGH
DRIFTS OFF THE COAST...THOUGH BULK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND POPS LOOK
TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE WED...WILL MAINTAIN 20-40% POPS IN THE AFTN
SW...DRY NE. HIGHS INTO THE MID 60S SW TO AROUND 70 F ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FORECAST BEGINNING WED NIGHT REMAINS WEIGHTED
TOWARD THE WPC/ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS LOW PRESSURE UP THE SE
COAST WED NIGHT...THEN DEEPENS THE LOW OFF THE OBX ON THURSDAY
BEFORE QUICKLY SHOVING IT WELL OUT TO SEA THURSDAY NIGHT. BASED ON
THIS SOLUTION...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) NORTH AND CHC
POPS (30-50%) ACROSS THE SOUTH WED NIGHT. WILL EXPAND CHC POPS
(30-40%) INTO NORTHERN AREAS ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH CHC TO LIKELY
POPS (50-60%) ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS (HIGHEST FAR SE)...BEFORE
DWINDLING RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PULLS AWAY. THE ECMWF DOES BRING A PIECE OF NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY
SOUTH INTO THE FA THURS NIGHT WHICH MAY ACTUALLY LINGER PCPN CHANCES
INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY. FOR NOW...WILL COVER THE POSSIBILITY WITH SLIGHT
CHC POPS. DRY WX THEN RETURNS LATER FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S THU/FRI...EXCEPT SOME UPR 50S
IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCALES. (NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.)
HIGHS THEN WARM INTO THE MID/UPR 60S AT THE COAST TO MID/UPR 70S
INLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO TUE MORNG...AS STRONG LO
PRES SPINS OVR THE NRN ATLC WHILE HI PRES BLDS SSE INTO THE UPR
MIDWEST. THERE MAY BE PATCHY GROUND FOG EARLY THIS MORNG AT THE
SITES...DUE TO LGT WINDS AND LINGERING LO LVL MOIST. OTHERWISE...A
SOMEWHAT DRIER NW OR N FLO WILL FILTER DOWN OVR THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...DRY WX AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE INTO WED
MORNG. LO PRES MOVES OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NE JUST OFF
THE SE AND MID ATLC CSTS TUE NGT INTO THU NGT WHILE INTENSIFYING.
THIS LO MAY PRODUCE PCPN WED NGT INTO THU NGT. IFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THRU MIDDAY MONDAY
FOR RELATIVELY LIGHT N-NW WINDS. LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS TO THE LOCAL AREA LATE
MONDAY THRU TUES MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL THE
WATERS DURING THIS TIME. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT ON THE BAY MON
NIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-5 FT ON THE OCEAN. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TUE AFTN THRU WED NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS
IS LIKELY FOR ALL WATERS THU/FRI AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE
COAST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ633-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...JDM



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270458 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1258 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
PROVIDE CLOUDS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES. WARMER AIR MOVES BACK IN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN GOOD SHAPE. ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES WERE MADE IN LINE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE.

IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...
CIRCLING AROUND A LARGE UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS
WAVE WILL THICKEN CLOUDS...INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
SPREAD COLDER AIR OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. THE RISK FOR SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES DUE NOT ONLY TO THE WAVE
SWINGING THROUGH...BUT ALSO TO THE RATHER COLD AIR ALOFT. THIS
WILL CREATE A SCENARIO IN WHICH THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES
QUICKLY. ADDITIONALLY...WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT...RAIN SHOWERS
MAY AT TIME MIX WITH SNOW...OR PRECIPITATION MAY FALL AS GRAUPEL.
THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER THE RIDGES WHERE THERMAL
PROFILES BECOME COLD ENOUGH LATE IN THE DAY TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW
ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN A DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE SOUTH TO NORTH WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

TEMPERATURE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD A BLEND OF MOS WHICH IS
NEAR 5 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT. STILL
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AS DOUBT ON HOW MUCH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE. BY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MODEL
DISCREPANCIES ON HANDLING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EAST COAST MAKE
FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
AFTER DAYBREAK. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
FROM THE NORTH AS THE MIXING LAYER DEEPENS UNDER THAT FEATURE. THE
VICINITY SHOWER MENTION WILL THUS BE MAINTAINED WITH PREVAILING
WORDING OVER PORTS EAST OF PIT. RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MVFR...BUT THE INCREASED MIXING LAYER WILL SUPPORT WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20 KTS.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH
THURSDAY LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270458 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1258 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
PROVIDE CLOUDS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES. WARMER AIR MOVES BACK IN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN GOOD SHAPE. ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES WERE MADE IN LINE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE.

IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...
CIRCLING AROUND A LARGE UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS
WAVE WILL THICKEN CLOUDS...INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
SPREAD COLDER AIR OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. THE RISK FOR SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES DUE NOT ONLY TO THE WAVE
SWINGING THROUGH...BUT ALSO TO THE RATHER COLD AIR ALOFT. THIS
WILL CREATE A SCENARIO IN WHICH THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES
QUICKLY. ADDITIONALLY...WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT...RAIN SHOWERS
MAY AT TIME MIX WITH SNOW...OR PRECIPITATION MAY FALL AS GRAUPEL.
THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER THE RIDGES WHERE THERMAL
PROFILES BECOME COLD ENOUGH LATE IN THE DAY TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW
ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN A DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE SOUTH TO NORTH WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

TEMPERATURE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD A BLEND OF MOS WHICH IS
NEAR 5 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT. STILL
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AS DOUBT ON HOW MUCH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE. BY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MODEL
DISCREPANCIES ON HANDLING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EAST COAST MAKE
FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
AFTER DAYBREAK. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
FROM THE NORTH AS THE MIXING LAYER DEEPENS UNDER THAT FEATURE. THE
VICINITY SHOWER MENTION WILL THUS BE MAINTAINED WITH PREVAILING
WORDING OVER PORTS EAST OF PIT. RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MVFR...BUT THE INCREASED MIXING LAYER WILL SUPPORT WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20 KTS.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH
THURSDAY LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270458 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1258 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
PROVIDE CLOUDS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES. WARMER AIR MOVES BACK IN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN GOOD SHAPE. ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES WERE MADE IN LINE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE.

IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...
CIRCLING AROUND A LARGE UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS
WAVE WILL THICKEN CLOUDS...INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
SPREAD COLDER AIR OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. THE RISK FOR SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES DUE NOT ONLY TO THE WAVE
SWINGING THROUGH...BUT ALSO TO THE RATHER COLD AIR ALOFT. THIS
WILL CREATE A SCENARIO IN WHICH THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES
QUICKLY. ADDITIONALLY...WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT...RAIN SHOWERS
MAY AT TIME MIX WITH SNOW...OR PRECIPITATION MAY FALL AS GRAUPEL.
THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER THE RIDGES WHERE THERMAL
PROFILES BECOME COLD ENOUGH LATE IN THE DAY TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW
ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN A DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE SOUTH TO NORTH WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

TEMPERATURE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD A BLEND OF MOS WHICH IS
NEAR 5 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT. STILL
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AS DOUBT ON HOW MUCH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE. BY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MODEL
DISCREPANCIES ON HANDLING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EAST COAST MAKE
FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
AFTER DAYBREAK. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
FROM THE NORTH AS THE MIXING LAYER DEEPENS UNDER THAT FEATURE. THE
VICINITY SHOWER MENTION WILL THUS BE MAINTAINED WITH PREVAILING
WORDING OVER PORTS EAST OF PIT. RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MVFR...BUT THE INCREASED MIXING LAYER WILL SUPPORT WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20 KTS.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH
THURSDAY LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270458 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1258 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
PROVIDE CLOUDS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES. WARMER AIR MOVES BACK IN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN GOOD SHAPE. ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES WERE MADE IN LINE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE.

IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...
CIRCLING AROUND A LARGE UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS
WAVE WILL THICKEN CLOUDS...INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
SPREAD COLDER AIR OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. THE RISK FOR SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES DUE NOT ONLY TO THE WAVE
SWINGING THROUGH...BUT ALSO TO THE RATHER COLD AIR ALOFT. THIS
WILL CREATE A SCENARIO IN WHICH THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES
QUICKLY. ADDITIONALLY...WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT...RAIN SHOWERS
MAY AT TIME MIX WITH SNOW...OR PRECIPITATION MAY FALL AS GRAUPEL.
THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER THE RIDGES WHERE THERMAL
PROFILES BECOME COLD ENOUGH LATE IN THE DAY TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW
ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN A DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE SOUTH TO NORTH WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

TEMPERATURE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD A BLEND OF MOS WHICH IS
NEAR 5 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT. STILL
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AS DOUBT ON HOW MUCH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE. BY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MODEL
DISCREPANCIES ON HANDLING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EAST COAST MAKE
FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
AFTER DAYBREAK. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
FROM THE NORTH AS THE MIXING LAYER DEEPENS UNDER THAT FEATURE. THE
VICINITY SHOWER MENTION WILL THUS BE MAINTAINED WITH PREVAILING
WORDING OVER PORTS EAST OF PIT. RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MVFR...BUT THE INCREASED MIXING LAYER WILL SUPPORT WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20 KTS.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH
THURSDAY LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270458 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1258 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
PROVIDE CLOUDS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES. WARMER AIR MOVES BACK IN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN GOOD SHAPE. ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES WERE MADE IN LINE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE.

IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...
CIRCLING AROUND A LARGE UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS
WAVE WILL THICKEN CLOUDS...INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
SPREAD COLDER AIR OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. THE RISK FOR SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES DUE NOT ONLY TO THE WAVE
SWINGING THROUGH...BUT ALSO TO THE RATHER COLD AIR ALOFT. THIS
WILL CREATE A SCENARIO IN WHICH THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES
QUICKLY. ADDITIONALLY...WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT...RAIN SHOWERS
MAY AT TIME MIX WITH SNOW...OR PRECIPITATION MAY FALL AS GRAUPEL.
THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER THE RIDGES WHERE THERMAL
PROFILES BECOME COLD ENOUGH LATE IN THE DAY TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW
ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN A DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE SOUTH TO NORTH WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

TEMPERATURE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD A BLEND OF MOS WHICH IS
NEAR 5 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT. STILL
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AS DOUBT ON HOW MUCH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE. BY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MODEL
DISCREPANCIES ON HANDLING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EAST COAST MAKE
FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
AFTER DAYBREAK. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
FROM THE NORTH AS THE MIXING LAYER DEEPENS UNDER THAT FEATURE. THE
VICINITY SHOWER MENTION WILL THUS BE MAINTAINED WITH PREVAILING
WORDING OVER PORTS EAST OF PIT. RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MVFR...BUT THE INCREASED MIXING LAYER WILL SUPPORT WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20 KTS.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH
THURSDAY LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270458 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1258 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
PROVIDE CLOUDS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES. WARMER AIR MOVES BACK IN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN GOOD SHAPE. ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES WERE MADE IN LINE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE.

IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...
CIRCLING AROUND A LARGE UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS
WAVE WILL THICKEN CLOUDS...INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
SPREAD COLDER AIR OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. THE RISK FOR SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES DUE NOT ONLY TO THE WAVE
SWINGING THROUGH...BUT ALSO TO THE RATHER COLD AIR ALOFT. THIS
WILL CREATE A SCENARIO IN WHICH THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES
QUICKLY. ADDITIONALLY...WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT...RAIN SHOWERS
MAY AT TIME MIX WITH SNOW...OR PRECIPITATION MAY FALL AS GRAUPEL.
THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER THE RIDGES WHERE THERMAL
PROFILES BECOME COLD ENOUGH LATE IN THE DAY TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW
ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN A DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE SOUTH TO NORTH WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

TEMPERATURE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD A BLEND OF MOS WHICH IS
NEAR 5 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT. STILL
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AS DOUBT ON HOW MUCH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE. BY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MODEL
DISCREPANCIES ON HANDLING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EAST COAST MAKE
FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
AFTER DAYBREAK. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
FROM THE NORTH AS THE MIXING LAYER DEEPENS UNDER THAT FEATURE. THE
VICINITY SHOWER MENTION WILL THUS BE MAINTAINED WITH PREVAILING
WORDING OVER PORTS EAST OF PIT. RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MVFR...BUT THE INCREASED MIXING LAYER WILL SUPPORT WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20 KTS.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH
THURSDAY LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270204
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1004 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE CURRENT ANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST...WITH THE TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH MUCH
OF SC AND NRN GA. HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
CANADA...BUT THERE HAS BEEN JUST ENOUGH NW CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
THAT HAS ENABLED THE SURFACE RIDGE TO EXTEND INTO THE LOCAL AREA.
THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR CLEARING ACROSS THE N...WHILE SRN VA/NE NC
REMAINS PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING AVERAGE
IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. THE ONLY MINOR CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS
FOG...AND THIS WOULD MAINLY BE ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA AND INTERIOR NE
NC WHERE DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGHER. THESE VALUES REMAIN HIGHER
HOWEVER DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER. AREAS TO THE N THAT HAVE
CLEARED HAVE EXPERIENCED DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S.
ADDITIONALLY...THE PATTERN IS NOT REALLY IDEAL FOR FOG AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE DOES NOT BUILD OVER THE REGION...AND SOME ADDITIONAL
MIXING IS POSSIBLE. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP FOG OUT OF THE GRIDDED
FORECAST. LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM 40-45F...BUT SOME INTERIOR
SECTIONS COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BROAD UPR LVL LO PRES EXTENDING FM CANADIAN MARITIMES TO SE GREAT LAKES
WILL RMN IN PLACE THROUGH MON NIGHT. S/W DIVING SE THROUGH THE
MDATLC STATES ON MON BRINGS VRB CLDS AND LO POPS - ESP N AND E
LOCATIONS (ALG W/ CONTD COOL CONDS). HI TEMPS MON IN THE L60S NE
TO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 60S ELSW. BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR MON
NIGHT...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER ON TUE W/ INCREASED AMTS OF
SUNSHINE...HIGHS MNLY INTO THE MID 60S AT THE COAST TO U60S TO
AROUND 70 F INLAND. INCREASING CLOUDS/MOISTURE ON WED AS SFC HIGH
DRIFTS OFF THE COAST...THOUGH BULK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND POPS LOOK
TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE WED...WILL MAINTAIN 20-40% POPS IN THE AFTN
SW...DRY NE. HIGHS INTO THE MID 60S SW TO AROUND 70 F ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FORECAST BEGINNING WED NIGHT REMAINS WEIGHTED
TOWARD THE WPC/ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS LOW PRESSURE UP THE SE
COAST WED NIGHT...THEN DEEPENS THE LOW OFF THE OBX ON THURSDAY
BEFORE QUICKLY SHOVING IT WELL OUT TO SEA THURSDAY NIGHT. BASED ON
THIS SOLUTION...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) NORTH AND CHC
POPS (30-50%) ACROSS THE SOUTH WED NIGHT. WILL EXPAND CHC POPS
(30-40%) INTO NORTHERN AREAS ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH CHC TO LIKELY
POPS (50-60%) ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS (HIGHEST FAR SE)...BEFORE
DWINDLING RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PULLS AWAY. THE ECMWF DOES BRING A PIECE OF NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY
SOUTH INTO THE FA THURS NIGHT WHICH MAY ACTUALLY LINGER PCPN CHANCES
INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY. FOR NOW...WILL COVER THE POSSIBILITY WITH SLIGHT
CHC POPS. DRY WX THEN RETURNS LATER FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S THU/FRI...EXCEPT SOME UPR 50S
IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCALES. (NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.)
HIGHS THEN WARM INTO THE MID/UPR 60S AT THE COAST TO MID/UPR 70S
INLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. SKIES
CONTINUE TO CLEAR N TO S WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM OR LIGHT TONIGHT.
DUE TO THE CLEARING SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST LOW
LEVELS...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT
BETWEEN 03-06Z. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH...MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS TOWARD
SUNRISE WOULD LIMIT FOG. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUGGEST FOG
EXCEPT AT ECG. CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS
TIME. THERE IS A SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS AT SBY MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW INTENSIFIES OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AND MAY PRODUCE PCPN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS. IFR CONDS
ARE PSBL.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THRU MIDDAY MONDAY
FOR RELATIVELY LIGHT N-NW WINDS. LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS TO THE LOCAL AREA LATE
MONDAY THRU TUES MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL THE
WATERS DURING THIS TIME. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT ON THE BAY MON
NIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-5 FT ON THE OCEAN. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TUE AFTN THRU WED NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS
IS LIKELY FOR ALL WATERS THU/FRI AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE
COAST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ633-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/AJZ
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...JDM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270204
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1004 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE CURRENT ANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST...WITH THE TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH MUCH
OF SC AND NRN GA. HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
CANADA...BUT THERE HAS BEEN JUST ENOUGH NW CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
THAT HAS ENABLED THE SURFACE RIDGE TO EXTEND INTO THE LOCAL AREA.
THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR CLEARING ACROSS THE N...WHILE SRN VA/NE NC
REMAINS PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING AVERAGE
IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. THE ONLY MINOR CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS
FOG...AND THIS WOULD MAINLY BE ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA AND INTERIOR NE
NC WHERE DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGHER. THESE VALUES REMAIN HIGHER
HOWEVER DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER. AREAS TO THE N THAT HAVE
CLEARED HAVE EXPERIENCED DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S.
ADDITIONALLY...THE PATTERN IS NOT REALLY IDEAL FOR FOG AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE DOES NOT BUILD OVER THE REGION...AND SOME ADDITIONAL
MIXING IS POSSIBLE. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP FOG OUT OF THE GRIDDED
FORECAST. LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM 40-45F...BUT SOME INTERIOR
SECTIONS COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BROAD UPR LVL LO PRES EXTENDING FM CANADIAN MARITIMES TO SE GREAT LAKES
WILL RMN IN PLACE THROUGH MON NIGHT. S/W DIVING SE THROUGH THE
MDATLC STATES ON MON BRINGS VRB CLDS AND LO POPS - ESP N AND E
LOCATIONS (ALG W/ CONTD COOL CONDS). HI TEMPS MON IN THE L60S NE
TO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 60S ELSW. BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR MON
NIGHT...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER ON TUE W/ INCREASED AMTS OF
SUNSHINE...HIGHS MNLY INTO THE MID 60S AT THE COAST TO U60S TO
AROUND 70 F INLAND. INCREASING CLOUDS/MOISTURE ON WED AS SFC HIGH
DRIFTS OFF THE COAST...THOUGH BULK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND POPS LOOK
TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE WED...WILL MAINTAIN 20-40% POPS IN THE AFTN
SW...DRY NE. HIGHS INTO THE MID 60S SW TO AROUND 70 F ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FORECAST BEGINNING WED NIGHT REMAINS WEIGHTED
TOWARD THE WPC/ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS LOW PRESSURE UP THE SE
COAST WED NIGHT...THEN DEEPENS THE LOW OFF THE OBX ON THURSDAY
BEFORE QUICKLY SHOVING IT WELL OUT TO SEA THURSDAY NIGHT. BASED ON
THIS SOLUTION...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) NORTH AND CHC
POPS (30-50%) ACROSS THE SOUTH WED NIGHT. WILL EXPAND CHC POPS
(30-40%) INTO NORTHERN AREAS ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH CHC TO LIKELY
POPS (50-60%) ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS (HIGHEST FAR SE)...BEFORE
DWINDLING RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PULLS AWAY. THE ECMWF DOES BRING A PIECE OF NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY
SOUTH INTO THE FA THURS NIGHT WHICH MAY ACTUALLY LINGER PCPN CHANCES
INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY. FOR NOW...WILL COVER THE POSSIBILITY WITH SLIGHT
CHC POPS. DRY WX THEN RETURNS LATER FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S THU/FRI...EXCEPT SOME UPR 50S
IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCALES. (NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.)
HIGHS THEN WARM INTO THE MID/UPR 60S AT THE COAST TO MID/UPR 70S
INLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. SKIES
CONTINUE TO CLEAR N TO S WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM OR LIGHT TONIGHT.
DUE TO THE CLEARING SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST LOW
LEVELS...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT
BETWEEN 03-06Z. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH...MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS TOWARD
SUNRISE WOULD LIMIT FOG. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUGGEST FOG
EXCEPT AT ECG. CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS
TIME. THERE IS A SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS AT SBY MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW INTENSIFIES OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AND MAY PRODUCE PCPN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS. IFR CONDS
ARE PSBL.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THRU MIDDAY MONDAY
FOR RELATIVELY LIGHT N-NW WINDS. LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS TO THE LOCAL AREA LATE
MONDAY THRU TUES MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL THE
WATERS DURING THIS TIME. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT ON THE BAY MON
NIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-5 FT ON THE OCEAN. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TUE AFTN THRU WED NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS
IS LIKELY FOR ALL WATERS THU/FRI AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE
COAST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ633-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/AJZ
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...JDM



000
FXUS61 KPHI 270122
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
922 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AND COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OUT TO SEA DURING THE EARLY
AND MIDDLE PARTS OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO OUR REGION GRADUALLY FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEST. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST ON THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING OUT TO SEA. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY BEFORE
PASSING OFF THE COAST DURING THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM ABOUT THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WESTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES THEN DOWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS SEVERAL WELL DEFINED SHORT
WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE OVERALL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THESE WILL
SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND TEND TO KEEP SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IN PLACE. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE COVERAGE OF THE CLOUDS.
THEY HAVE TENDED TO THIN OUT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING FOR
THE MOST PART, HOWEVER THERE ARE MORE LURKING JUST TO THE NORTH. THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HINT THAT THEY MAY OOZE SOUTHWARD DURING THE
NIGHT, HOWEVER JUST HOW FAR SOUTH AND TO THE EXTENT OF THEIR
COVERAGE IS OF SOME LOWER CONFIDENCE.

A SEA BREEZE WORKING ITS WAY WESTWARD IS JUST ABOUT TO THE DELAWARE
RIVER FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY /AS OF 0045Z/, ALTHOUGH IT IS
NOW WEAKENING. THIS FEATURE IS MARKED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST IN ITS WAKE AS WINDS AHEAD OF IT ARE FROM A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION. THEREFORE, SHOWED A BIT FASTER COOLING IN ITS WAKE ALONG
WITH A LITTLE INCREASE IN THE DEW POINTS.

THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGH THE NIGHT,
HOWEVER WITH SOME CLOUDS PROBABLY HOLDING ON AT TIMES THE LOWS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. OVERALL, ANY FROST
IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER PATCHY. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
LOW TEMPERATURES ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
FOR MONDAY THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH HIGH
PRES OVER THE MID-WEST AND LOW PRES WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WITH A
CENTER NEAR NOVA SCOTIA. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE BUT SHOULD BE
SMWHAT STRONGER THAN TODAY WITH A STRONGER GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
HIGH AND LOW. MAX TEMPS MONDAY AFTN COULD BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN
TODAY DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDINESS...ESPECIALLY FROM PHL NORTH.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTN...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL HGT/THERMAL TROF ROTATES SWD ACROSS THE
AREA. COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN INCREASED INSTBY ALONG
WITH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...HOWEVER THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOS WILL
REMAIN RATHER DRY WITH INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDING. THUS THE PRECIP
FROM SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL TEND TO EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING
THE GROUND. WE HAVE INCLUDED SLGT CHC POPS FOR MOST OF OUR FCST
AREA WITH SLGTLY HIER CHC POPS WELL N/W OF PHL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WE SHOULD REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID LEVEL LOW OFF NOVA
SCOTIA DURING THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED DURING THE COURSE OF MONDAY NIGHT WITH
CUMULUS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.
A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH IS FORECAST FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH A BIT FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN OUR REGION RELAXES.

A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST AND IT SHOULD BE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THEIR
HANDLING OF THE DEVELOPING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
STATES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ALSO, THERE IS IMPROVING BUT NOT
YET IDEAL CONSENSUS REGARDING THE SURFACE LOW. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION BASED ON ITS BETTER RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY.

THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE OFF CAPE HATTERAS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AND OUT TO SEA. OUR REGION IS
ANTICIPATED TO STAY ON THE NORTHWESTERN FRINGE OF ITS MAIN
IMPACTS. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW REMAINS UNCERTAIN SO WE MAY OR
MAY NOT GET SOME RAIN IN ADDITION TO THE CLOUD COVER, ESPECIALLY
ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. WE HAVE KEPT THE 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THE TIME BEING. AN EAST WIND AROUND 10 MPH ON THURSDAY
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT
BACKS TO THE NORTHEAST, THEN TO THE NORTH.

THE COMPLEX MID LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OVER THE
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC FOR THE WEEKEND. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST AT THAT TIME. THE FEATURE
IS ANTICIPATED TO HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. A
SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE
EASTERN STATES FOR THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF MAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT BE FAR FROM NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TONIGHT...VFR. A CEILING AT 6000-9000 FEET SCATTERING OUT
FOR MOST TERMINALS OVERALL. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 5-8 KNOTS
BECOMING LOCALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE, HOWEVER SOUTHEASTERLY THIS
EVENING MAINLY FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH AND EAST OF KPHL DUE TO A
WEAKENING SEA BREEZE.

MONDAY...VFR OVERALL, WITH A CEILING AROUND 5000 FEET EXPECTED.
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KNOTS /HIGHEST WINDS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON/. A FEW AFTERNOON
SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP, HOWEVER THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO
PERHAPS SCATTERED.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. AN EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS IS EXPECTED
ALONG WITH ITS POTENTIAL IMPACT ON OPERATIONS AT KPHL.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE CURRENTLY RATHER QUIET OVER THE WATERS AND SHOULD
REMAIN SO TONIGHT AND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY. THE FLOW IS
ONSHORE THOUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS INCLUDING
DELAWARE BAY AS A SEA BREEZE TURNED THE WINDS SOUTHEASTERLY AND
INCREASED THEM A BIT THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT AS THE GRADIENT FLOW TAKES OVER. FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SEAS WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
DURING THE DAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE INTO MONDAY EVENING
WHEN A SCA WILL GO INTO EFFECT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR A NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND GUSTING TO 25 OR 30 KNOTS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...NO MARINE HEADLINES
ARE ANTICIPATED.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND FOR WAVES ON OUR OCEAN
WATERS IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET. THE WIND DIRECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO
BACK GRADUALLY FROM THE EAST TO THE NORTH. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS IF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OCEAN TRACKS CLOSER
TO THE COAST THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY MORNING WITH
GUSTS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED TO DROP AROUND
30 PERCENT IN MUCH OF OUR REGION ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PRESENTLY,
IT DOES NOT APPEAR AS THOUGH BOTH ELEMENTS WILL COME TOGETHER TO
CREATE AN ENHANCED CONCERN FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD. HOWEVER,
CONDITIONS MAY GET CLOSE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...AMC/GORSE/IOVINO
FIRE WEATHER...IOVINO



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270102
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
902 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
900 PM...THICKER CLOUDS SLOWLY ADVANCING SOUTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF
FIRST SHORTWAVE...WHICH IS NOW SWINGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES. BACKED OFF A LITTLE FURTHER ON POPS LATER TONIGHT...TO
SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH OF PIT/LBE...WITH NO PRECIP IMMINENT AND
RAP/HRRR SOUNDINGS SHOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTENING CLOSER TO 12Z.
SNOWFLAKES STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST COUNTIES AROUND SUNRISE
WITH SUBZERO H850 TEMPS AND SURFACE VALUES IN THE MID 30S. WITH
LATER PRECIP ARRIVAL...THINK THAT BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WARM IN TIME
TO PREVENT SNOW ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES THOUGH. LOW
TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK AND TWEAKED HOURLY VALUES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MONDAY...

SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTH DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH CONTINUED LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS. CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN A DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE SOUTH TO NORTH WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

TEMPERATURE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD A BLEND OF MOS WHICH IS
NEAR 5 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT. STILL
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AS DOUBT ON HOW MUCH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE. BY THE WEEKEND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS REGION WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE AVERAGE BY
SUNDAY. IN GENERAL CLOSE TO WPC TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE.
AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED FOR A MONDAY PASSAGE WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING...SO INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION FOR MOST
PORTS. SNOW COULD BRIEFLY MIX IN NORTH OF I 80. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED AT FKL AND DUJ BY SUNRISE...WITH LOW VFR STRATOCU
DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE MORNING. AS MIXING BEGINS MONDAY
EXPECTING GUSTY WNW WINDS BY MID MORNING.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH SOUTHEAST CONUS LOW
PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270102
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
902 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
900 PM...THICKER CLOUDS SLOWLY ADVANCING SOUTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF
FIRST SHORTWAVE...WHICH IS NOW SWINGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES. BACKED OFF A LITTLE FURTHER ON POPS LATER TONIGHT...TO
SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH OF PIT/LBE...WITH NO PRECIP IMMINENT AND
RAP/HRRR SOUNDINGS SHOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTENING CLOSER TO 12Z.
SNOWFLAKES STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST COUNTIES AROUND SUNRISE
WITH SUBZERO H850 TEMPS AND SURFACE VALUES IN THE MID 30S. WITH
LATER PRECIP ARRIVAL...THINK THAT BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WARM IN TIME
TO PREVENT SNOW ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES THOUGH. LOW
TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK AND TWEAKED HOURLY VALUES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MONDAY...

SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTH DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH CONTINUED LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS. CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN A DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE SOUTH TO NORTH WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

TEMPERATURE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD A BLEND OF MOS WHICH IS
NEAR 5 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT. STILL
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AS DOUBT ON HOW MUCH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE. BY THE WEEKEND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS REGION WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE AVERAGE BY
SUNDAY. IN GENERAL CLOSE TO WPC TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE.
AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED FOR A MONDAY PASSAGE WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING...SO INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION FOR MOST
PORTS. SNOW COULD BRIEFLY MIX IN NORTH OF I 80. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED AT FKL AND DUJ BY SUNRISE...WITH LOW VFR STRATOCU
DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE MORNING. AS MIXING BEGINS MONDAY
EXPECTING GUSTY WNW WINDS BY MID MORNING.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH SOUTHEAST CONUS LOW
PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270102
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
902 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC LOW PRESSURE NOW WELL OFF THE SE
COAST...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OVER SC. WHILE PARENT SFC
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER CANADA...JUST ENOUGH NW CONFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT HAS ENABLED SFC RIDGE TO EXTEND INTO THE LOCAL AREA
THIS AFTN. THE RESULT HAS BEEN A NICER AFTN THAN ANTICIPATED...PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES NOW COVER MOST OF THE REGION...ONLY NE NC AND SOUTH
CENTRAL VA ZONES NEAR THE NC BORDER REMAIN CLOUDY. LITTLE TO
NOTHING ON THE RADAR...WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP IN NE NC THROUGH
22Z...OTHERWISE WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
INTO EARLY EVENING WILL AVG IN THE LOW 60S OVER INTERIOR NRN 1/2
OF THE CWA...TO THE MID 50S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND IN NE NC.

ONLY CONCERN LATER TONIGHT WILL BE FOR POTENTIAL FOG DUE TO WET
GROUND AND CLEARING SKIES. SINCE SOME DRYING HAS PREVAILED THIS
AFTN...AND WITH SFC DEW PTS NOW FALLING INTO THE 30S IN MANY
AREAS...THINKING IS THAT FOG WILL BE PATCHY IF IT DEVELOPS AT ALL.
ALSO...NOT REALLY AN IDEAL PRESSURE PATTERN FOR FOG AS SFC HIGH
DOES NOT BUILD OVER THE AREA AND SOME ADDITIONAL MIXING IS
POSSIBLE. FOR NOW DID NOT INCLUDE FOG IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST.
LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 40-45 F RANGE...BUT SOME INTERIOR
SECTIONS COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S. VARIABLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BROAD UPR LVL LO PRES EXTENDING FM CANADIAN MARITIMES TO SE GREAT LAKES
WILL RMN IN PLACE THROUGH MON NIGHT. S/W DIVING SE THROUGH THE
MDATLC STATES ON MON BRINGS VRB CLDS AND LO POPS - ESP N AND E
LOCATIONS (ALG W/ CONTD COOL CONDS). HI TEMPS MON IN THE L60S NE
TO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 60S ELSW. BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR MON
NIGHT...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER ON TUE W/ INCREASED AMTS OF
SUNSHINE...HIGHS MNLY INTO THE MID 60S AT THE COAST TO U60S TO
AROUND 70 F INLAND. INCREASING CLOUDS/MOISTURE ON WED AS SFC HIGH
DRIFTS OFF THE COAST...THOUGH BULK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND POPS LOOK
TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE WED...WILL MAINTAIN 20-40% POPS IN THE AFTN
SW...DRY NE. HIGHS INTO THE MID 60S SW TO AROUND 70 F ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FORECAST BEGINNING WED NIGHT REMAINS WEIGHTED
TOWARD THE WPC/ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS LOW PRESSURE UP THE SE
COAST WED NIGHT...THEN DEEPENS THE LOW OFF THE OBX ON THURSDAY
BEFORE QUICKLY SHOVING IT WELL OUT TO SEA THURSDAY NIGHT. BASED ON
THIS SOLUTION...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) NORTH AND CHC
POPS (30-50%) ACROSS THE SOUTH WED NIGHT. WILL EXPAND CHC POPS
(30-40%) INTO NORTHERN AREAS ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH CHC TO LIKELY
POPS (50-60%) ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS (HIGHEST FAR SE)...BEFORE
DWINDLING RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PULLS AWAY. THE ECMWF DOES BRING A PIECE OF NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY
SOUTH INTO THE FA THURS NIGHT WHICH MAY ACTUALLY LINGER PCPN CHANCES
INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY. FOR NOW...WILL COVER THE POSSIBILITY WITH SLIGHT
CHC POPS. DRY WX THEN RETURNS LATER FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S THU/FRI...EXCEPT SOME UPR 50S
IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCALES. (NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.)
HIGHS THEN WARM INTO THE MID/UPR 60S AT THE COAST TO MID/UPR 70S
INLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. SKIES
CONTINUE TO CLEAR N TO S WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM OR LIGHT TONIGHT.
DUE TO THE CLEARING SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST LOW
LEVELS...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT
BETWEEN 03-06Z. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH...MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS TOWARD
SUNRISE WOULD LIMIT FOG. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUGGEST FOG
EXCEPT AT ECG. CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS
TIME. THERE IS A SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS AT SBY MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW INTENSIFIES OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AND MAY PRODUCE PCPN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS. IFR CONDS
ARE PSBL.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THRU MIDDAY MONDAY
FOR RELATIVELY LIGHT N-NW WINDS. LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS TO THE LOCAL AREA LATE
MONDAY THRU TUES MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL THE
WATERS DURING THIS TIME. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT ON THE BAY MON
NIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-5 FT ON THE OCEAN. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TUE AFTN THRU WED NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS
IS LIKELY FOR ALL WATERS THU/FRI AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE
COAST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ633-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...JDM




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270102
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
902 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
900 PM...THICKER CLOUDS SLOWLY ADVANCING SOUTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF
FIRST SHORTWAVE...WHICH IS NOW SWINGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES. BACKED OFF A LITTLE FURTHER ON POPS LATER TONIGHT...TO
SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH OF PIT/LBE...WITH NO PRECIP IMMINENT AND
RAP/HRRR SOUNDINGS SHOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTENING CLOSER TO 12Z.
SNOWFLAKES STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST COUNTIES AROUND SUNRISE
WITH SUBZERO H850 TEMPS AND SURFACE VALUES IN THE MID 30S. WITH
LATER PRECIP ARRIVAL...THINK THAT BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WARM IN TIME
TO PREVENT SNOW ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES THOUGH. LOW
TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK AND TWEAKED HOURLY VALUES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MONDAY...

SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTH DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH CONTINUED LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS. CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN A DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE SOUTH TO NORTH WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

TEMPERATURE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD A BLEND OF MOS WHICH IS
NEAR 5 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT. STILL
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AS DOUBT ON HOW MUCH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE. BY THE WEEKEND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS REGION WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE AVERAGE BY
SUNDAY. IN GENERAL CLOSE TO WPC TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE.
AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED FOR A MONDAY PASSAGE WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING...SO INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION FOR MOST
PORTS. SNOW COULD BRIEFLY MIX IN NORTH OF I 80. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED AT FKL AND DUJ BY SUNRISE...WITH LOW VFR STRATOCU
DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE MORNING. AS MIXING BEGINS MONDAY
EXPECTING GUSTY WNW WINDS BY MID MORNING.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH SOUTHEAST CONUS LOW
PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270102
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
902 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
900 PM...THICKER CLOUDS SLOWLY ADVANCING SOUTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF
FIRST SHORTWAVE...WHICH IS NOW SWINGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES. BACKED OFF A LITTLE FURTHER ON POPS LATER TONIGHT...TO
SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH OF PIT/LBE...WITH NO PRECIP IMMINENT AND
RAP/HRRR SOUNDINGS SHOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTENING CLOSER TO 12Z.
SNOWFLAKES STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST COUNTIES AROUND SUNRISE
WITH SUBZERO H850 TEMPS AND SURFACE VALUES IN THE MID 30S. WITH
LATER PRECIP ARRIVAL...THINK THAT BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WARM IN TIME
TO PREVENT SNOW ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES THOUGH. LOW
TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK AND TWEAKED HOURLY VALUES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MONDAY...

SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTH DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH CONTINUED LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS. CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN A DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE SOUTH TO NORTH WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

TEMPERATURE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD A BLEND OF MOS WHICH IS
NEAR 5 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT. STILL
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AS DOUBT ON HOW MUCH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE. BY THE WEEKEND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS REGION WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE AVERAGE BY
SUNDAY. IN GENERAL CLOSE TO WPC TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE.
AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED FOR A MONDAY PASSAGE WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING...SO INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION FOR MOST
PORTS. SNOW COULD BRIEFLY MIX IN NORTH OF I 80. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED AT FKL AND DUJ BY SUNRISE...WITH LOW VFR STRATOCU
DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE MORNING. AS MIXING BEGINS MONDAY
EXPECTING GUSTY WNW WINDS BY MID MORNING.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH SOUTHEAST CONUS LOW
PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270102
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
902 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC LOW PRESSURE NOW WELL OFF THE SE
COAST...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OVER SC. WHILE PARENT SFC
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER CANADA...JUST ENOUGH NW CONFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT HAS ENABLED SFC RIDGE TO EXTEND INTO THE LOCAL AREA
THIS AFTN. THE RESULT HAS BEEN A NICER AFTN THAN ANTICIPATED...PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES NOW COVER MOST OF THE REGION...ONLY NE NC AND SOUTH
CENTRAL VA ZONES NEAR THE NC BORDER REMAIN CLOUDY. LITTLE TO
NOTHING ON THE RADAR...WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP IN NE NC THROUGH
22Z...OTHERWISE WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
INTO EARLY EVENING WILL AVG IN THE LOW 60S OVER INTERIOR NRN 1/2
OF THE CWA...TO THE MID 50S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND IN NE NC.

ONLY CONCERN LATER TONIGHT WILL BE FOR POTENTIAL FOG DUE TO WET
GROUND AND CLEARING SKIES. SINCE SOME DRYING HAS PREVAILED THIS
AFTN...AND WITH SFC DEW PTS NOW FALLING INTO THE 30S IN MANY
AREAS...THINKING IS THAT FOG WILL BE PATCHY IF IT DEVELOPS AT ALL.
ALSO...NOT REALLY AN IDEAL PRESSURE PATTERN FOR FOG AS SFC HIGH
DOES NOT BUILD OVER THE AREA AND SOME ADDITIONAL MIXING IS
POSSIBLE. FOR NOW DID NOT INCLUDE FOG IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST.
LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 40-45 F RANGE...BUT SOME INTERIOR
SECTIONS COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S. VARIABLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BROAD UPR LVL LO PRES EXTENDING FM CANADIAN MARITIMES TO SE GREAT LAKES
WILL RMN IN PLACE THROUGH MON NIGHT. S/W DIVING SE THROUGH THE
MDATLC STATES ON MON BRINGS VRB CLDS AND LO POPS - ESP N AND E
LOCATIONS (ALG W/ CONTD COOL CONDS). HI TEMPS MON IN THE L60S NE
TO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 60S ELSW. BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR MON
NIGHT...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER ON TUE W/ INCREASED AMTS OF
SUNSHINE...HIGHS MNLY INTO THE MID 60S AT THE COAST TO U60S TO
AROUND 70 F INLAND. INCREASING CLOUDS/MOISTURE ON WED AS SFC HIGH
DRIFTS OFF THE COAST...THOUGH BULK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND POPS LOOK
TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE WED...WILL MAINTAIN 20-40% POPS IN THE AFTN
SW...DRY NE. HIGHS INTO THE MID 60S SW TO AROUND 70 F ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FORECAST BEGINNING WED NIGHT REMAINS WEIGHTED
TOWARD THE WPC/ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS LOW PRESSURE UP THE SE
COAST WED NIGHT...THEN DEEPENS THE LOW OFF THE OBX ON THURSDAY
BEFORE QUICKLY SHOVING IT WELL OUT TO SEA THURSDAY NIGHT. BASED ON
THIS SOLUTION...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) NORTH AND CHC
POPS (30-50%) ACROSS THE SOUTH WED NIGHT. WILL EXPAND CHC POPS
(30-40%) INTO NORTHERN AREAS ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH CHC TO LIKELY
POPS (50-60%) ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS (HIGHEST FAR SE)...BEFORE
DWINDLING RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PULLS AWAY. THE ECMWF DOES BRING A PIECE OF NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY
SOUTH INTO THE FA THURS NIGHT WHICH MAY ACTUALLY LINGER PCPN CHANCES
INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY. FOR NOW...WILL COVER THE POSSIBILITY WITH SLIGHT
CHC POPS. DRY WX THEN RETURNS LATER FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S THU/FRI...EXCEPT SOME UPR 50S
IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCALES. (NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.)
HIGHS THEN WARM INTO THE MID/UPR 60S AT THE COAST TO MID/UPR 70S
INLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. SKIES
CONTINUE TO CLEAR N TO S WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM OR LIGHT TONIGHT.
DUE TO THE CLEARING SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST LOW
LEVELS...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT
BETWEEN 03-06Z. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH...MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS TOWARD
SUNRISE WOULD LIMIT FOG. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUGGEST FOG
EXCEPT AT ECG. CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS
TIME. THERE IS A SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS AT SBY MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW INTENSIFIES OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AND MAY PRODUCE PCPN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS. IFR CONDS
ARE PSBL.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THRU MIDDAY MONDAY
FOR RELATIVELY LIGHT N-NW WINDS. LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS TO THE LOCAL AREA LATE
MONDAY THRU TUES MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL THE
WATERS DURING THIS TIME. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT ON THE BAY MON
NIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-5 FT ON THE OCEAN. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TUE AFTN THRU WED NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS
IS LIKELY FOR ALL WATERS THU/FRI AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE
COAST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ633-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...JDM




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270102
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
902 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
900 PM...THICKER CLOUDS SLOWLY ADVANCING SOUTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF
FIRST SHORTWAVE...WHICH IS NOW SWINGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES. BACKED OFF A LITTLE FURTHER ON POPS LATER TONIGHT...TO
SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH OF PIT/LBE...WITH NO PRECIP IMMINENT AND
RAP/HRRR SOUNDINGS SHOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTENING CLOSER TO 12Z.
SNOWFLAKES STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST COUNTIES AROUND SUNRISE
WITH SUBZERO H850 TEMPS AND SURFACE VALUES IN THE MID 30S. WITH
LATER PRECIP ARRIVAL...THINK THAT BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WARM IN TIME
TO PREVENT SNOW ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES THOUGH. LOW
TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK AND TWEAKED HOURLY VALUES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MONDAY...

SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTH DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH CONTINUED LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS. CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN A DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE SOUTH TO NORTH WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

TEMPERATURE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD A BLEND OF MOS WHICH IS
NEAR 5 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT. STILL
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AS DOUBT ON HOW MUCH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE. BY THE WEEKEND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS REGION WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE AVERAGE BY
SUNDAY. IN GENERAL CLOSE TO WPC TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE.
AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED FOR A MONDAY PASSAGE WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING...SO INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION FOR MOST
PORTS. SNOW COULD BRIEFLY MIX IN NORTH OF I 80. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED AT FKL AND DUJ BY SUNRISE...WITH LOW VFR STRATOCU
DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE MORNING. AS MIXING BEGINS MONDAY
EXPECTING GUSTY WNW WINDS BY MID MORNING.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH SOUTHEAST CONUS LOW
PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270102
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
902 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
900 PM...THICKER CLOUDS SLOWLY ADVANCING SOUTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF
FIRST SHORTWAVE...WHICH IS NOW SWINGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES. BACKED OFF A LITTLE FURTHER ON POPS LATER TONIGHT...TO
SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH OF PIT/LBE...WITH NO PRECIP IMMINENT AND
RAP/HRRR SOUNDINGS SHOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTENING CLOSER TO 12Z.
SNOWFLAKES STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST COUNTIES AROUND SUNRISE
WITH SUBZERO H850 TEMPS AND SURFACE VALUES IN THE MID 30S. WITH
LATER PRECIP ARRIVAL...THINK THAT BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WARM IN TIME
TO PREVENT SNOW ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES THOUGH. LOW
TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK AND TWEAKED HOURLY VALUES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MONDAY...

SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTH DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH CONTINUED LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS. CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN A DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE SOUTH TO NORTH WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

TEMPERATURE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD A BLEND OF MOS WHICH IS
NEAR 5 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT. STILL
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AS DOUBT ON HOW MUCH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE. BY THE WEEKEND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS REGION WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE AVERAGE BY
SUNDAY. IN GENERAL CLOSE TO WPC TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE.
AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED FOR A MONDAY PASSAGE WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING...SO INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION FOR MOST
PORTS. SNOW COULD BRIEFLY MIX IN NORTH OF I 80. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED AT FKL AND DUJ BY SUNRISE...WITH LOW VFR STRATOCU
DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE MORNING. AS MIXING BEGINS MONDAY
EXPECTING GUSTY WNW WINDS BY MID MORNING.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH SOUTHEAST CONUS LOW
PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270102
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
902 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC LOW PRESSURE NOW WELL OFF THE SE
COAST...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OVER SC. WHILE PARENT SFC
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER CANADA...JUST ENOUGH NW CONFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT HAS ENABLED SFC RIDGE TO EXTEND INTO THE LOCAL AREA
THIS AFTN. THE RESULT HAS BEEN A NICER AFTN THAN ANTICIPATED...PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES NOW COVER MOST OF THE REGION...ONLY NE NC AND SOUTH
CENTRAL VA ZONES NEAR THE NC BORDER REMAIN CLOUDY. LITTLE TO
NOTHING ON THE RADAR...WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP IN NE NC THROUGH
22Z...OTHERWISE WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
INTO EARLY EVENING WILL AVG IN THE LOW 60S OVER INTERIOR NRN 1/2
OF THE CWA...TO THE MID 50S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND IN NE NC.

ONLY CONCERN LATER TONIGHT WILL BE FOR POTENTIAL FOG DUE TO WET
GROUND AND CLEARING SKIES. SINCE SOME DRYING HAS PREVAILED THIS
AFTN...AND WITH SFC DEW PTS NOW FALLING INTO THE 30S IN MANY
AREAS...THINKING IS THAT FOG WILL BE PATCHY IF IT DEVELOPS AT ALL.
ALSO...NOT REALLY AN IDEAL PRESSURE PATTERN FOR FOG AS SFC HIGH
DOES NOT BUILD OVER THE AREA AND SOME ADDITIONAL MIXING IS
POSSIBLE. FOR NOW DID NOT INCLUDE FOG IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST.
LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 40-45 F RANGE...BUT SOME INTERIOR
SECTIONS COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S. VARIABLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BROAD UPR LVL LO PRES EXTENDING FM CANADIAN MARITIMES TO SE GREAT LAKES
WILL RMN IN PLACE THROUGH MON NIGHT. S/W DIVING SE THROUGH THE
MDATLC STATES ON MON BRINGS VRB CLDS AND LO POPS - ESP N AND E
LOCATIONS (ALG W/ CONTD COOL CONDS). HI TEMPS MON IN THE L60S NE
TO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 60S ELSW. BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR MON
NIGHT...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER ON TUE W/ INCREASED AMTS OF
SUNSHINE...HIGHS MNLY INTO THE MID 60S AT THE COAST TO U60S TO
AROUND 70 F INLAND. INCREASING CLOUDS/MOISTURE ON WED AS SFC HIGH
DRIFTS OFF THE COAST...THOUGH BULK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND POPS LOOK
TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE WED...WILL MAINTAIN 20-40% POPS IN THE AFTN
SW...DRY NE. HIGHS INTO THE MID 60S SW TO AROUND 70 F ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FORECAST BEGINNING WED NIGHT REMAINS WEIGHTED
TOWARD THE WPC/ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS LOW PRESSURE UP THE SE
COAST WED NIGHT...THEN DEEPENS THE LOW OFF THE OBX ON THURSDAY
BEFORE QUICKLY SHOVING IT WELL OUT TO SEA THURSDAY NIGHT. BASED ON
THIS SOLUTION...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) NORTH AND CHC
POPS (30-50%) ACROSS THE SOUTH WED NIGHT. WILL EXPAND CHC POPS
(30-40%) INTO NORTHERN AREAS ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH CHC TO LIKELY
POPS (50-60%) ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS (HIGHEST FAR SE)...BEFORE
DWINDLING RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PULLS AWAY. THE ECMWF DOES BRING A PIECE OF NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY
SOUTH INTO THE FA THURS NIGHT WHICH MAY ACTUALLY LINGER PCPN CHANCES
INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY. FOR NOW...WILL COVER THE POSSIBILITY WITH SLIGHT
CHC POPS. DRY WX THEN RETURNS LATER FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S THU/FRI...EXCEPT SOME UPR 50S
IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCALES. (NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.)
HIGHS THEN WARM INTO THE MID/UPR 60S AT THE COAST TO MID/UPR 70S
INLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. SKIES
CONTINUE TO CLEAR N TO S WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM OR LIGHT TONIGHT.
DUE TO THE CLEARING SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST LOW
LEVELS...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT
BETWEEN 03-06Z. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH...MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS TOWARD
SUNRISE WOULD LIMIT FOG. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUGGEST FOG
EXCEPT AT ECG. CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS
TIME. THERE IS A SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS AT SBY MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW INTENSIFIES OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AND MAY PRODUCE PCPN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS. IFR CONDS
ARE PSBL.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THRU MIDDAY MONDAY
FOR RELATIVELY LIGHT N-NW WINDS. LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS TO THE LOCAL AREA LATE
MONDAY THRU TUES MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL THE
WATERS DURING THIS TIME. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT ON THE BAY MON
NIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-5 FT ON THE OCEAN. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TUE AFTN THRU WED NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS
IS LIKELY FOR ALL WATERS THU/FRI AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE
COAST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ633-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...JDM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270102
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
902 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC LOW PRESSURE NOW WELL OFF THE SE
COAST...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OVER SC. WHILE PARENT SFC
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER CANADA...JUST ENOUGH NW CONFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT HAS ENABLED SFC RIDGE TO EXTEND INTO THE LOCAL AREA
THIS AFTN. THE RESULT HAS BEEN A NICER AFTN THAN ANTICIPATED...PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES NOW COVER MOST OF THE REGION...ONLY NE NC AND SOUTH
CENTRAL VA ZONES NEAR THE NC BORDER REMAIN CLOUDY. LITTLE TO
NOTHING ON THE RADAR...WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP IN NE NC THROUGH
22Z...OTHERWISE WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
INTO EARLY EVENING WILL AVG IN THE LOW 60S OVER INTERIOR NRN 1/2
OF THE CWA...TO THE MID 50S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND IN NE NC.

ONLY CONCERN LATER TONIGHT WILL BE FOR POTENTIAL FOG DUE TO WET
GROUND AND CLEARING SKIES. SINCE SOME DRYING HAS PREVAILED THIS
AFTN...AND WITH SFC DEW PTS NOW FALLING INTO THE 30S IN MANY
AREAS...THINKING IS THAT FOG WILL BE PATCHY IF IT DEVELOPS AT ALL.
ALSO...NOT REALLY AN IDEAL PRESSURE PATTERN FOR FOG AS SFC HIGH
DOES NOT BUILD OVER THE AREA AND SOME ADDITIONAL MIXING IS
POSSIBLE. FOR NOW DID NOT INCLUDE FOG IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST.
LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 40-45 F RANGE...BUT SOME INTERIOR
SECTIONS COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S. VARIABLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BROAD UPR LVL LO PRES EXTENDING FM CANADIAN MARITIMES TO SE GREAT LAKES
WILL RMN IN PLACE THROUGH MON NIGHT. S/W DIVING SE THROUGH THE
MDATLC STATES ON MON BRINGS VRB CLDS AND LO POPS - ESP N AND E
LOCATIONS (ALG W/ CONTD COOL CONDS). HI TEMPS MON IN THE L60S NE
TO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 60S ELSW. BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR MON
NIGHT...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER ON TUE W/ INCREASED AMTS OF
SUNSHINE...HIGHS MNLY INTO THE MID 60S AT THE COAST TO U60S TO
AROUND 70 F INLAND. INCREASING CLOUDS/MOISTURE ON WED AS SFC HIGH
DRIFTS OFF THE COAST...THOUGH BULK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND POPS LOOK
TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE WED...WILL MAINTAIN 20-40% POPS IN THE AFTN
SW...DRY NE. HIGHS INTO THE MID 60S SW TO AROUND 70 F ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FORECAST BEGINNING WED NIGHT REMAINS WEIGHTED
TOWARD THE WPC/ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS LOW PRESSURE UP THE SE
COAST WED NIGHT...THEN DEEPENS THE LOW OFF THE OBX ON THURSDAY
BEFORE QUICKLY SHOVING IT WELL OUT TO SEA THURSDAY NIGHT. BASED ON
THIS SOLUTION...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) NORTH AND CHC
POPS (30-50%) ACROSS THE SOUTH WED NIGHT. WILL EXPAND CHC POPS
(30-40%) INTO NORTHERN AREAS ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH CHC TO LIKELY
POPS (50-60%) ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS (HIGHEST FAR SE)...BEFORE
DWINDLING RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PULLS AWAY. THE ECMWF DOES BRING A PIECE OF NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY
SOUTH INTO THE FA THURS NIGHT WHICH MAY ACTUALLY LINGER PCPN CHANCES
INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY. FOR NOW...WILL COVER THE POSSIBILITY WITH SLIGHT
CHC POPS. DRY WX THEN RETURNS LATER FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S THU/FRI...EXCEPT SOME UPR 50S
IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCALES. (NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.)
HIGHS THEN WARM INTO THE MID/UPR 60S AT THE COAST TO MID/UPR 70S
INLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. SKIES
CONTINUE TO CLEAR N TO S WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM OR LIGHT TONIGHT.
DUE TO THE CLEARING SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST LOW
LEVELS...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT
BETWEEN 03-06Z. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH...MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS TOWARD
SUNRISE WOULD LIMIT FOG. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUGGEST FOG
EXCEPT AT ECG. CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS
TIME. THERE IS A SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS AT SBY MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW INTENSIFIES OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AND MAY PRODUCE PCPN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS. IFR CONDS
ARE PSBL.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THRU MIDDAY MONDAY
FOR RELATIVELY LIGHT N-NW WINDS. LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS TO THE LOCAL AREA LATE
MONDAY THRU TUES MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL THE
WATERS DURING THIS TIME. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT ON THE BAY MON
NIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-5 FT ON THE OCEAN. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TUE AFTN THRU WED NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS
IS LIKELY FOR ALL WATERS THU/FRI AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE
COAST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ633-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...JDM



000
FXUS61 KLWX 270016
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
816 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AROUND THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTS OVERHEAD. THE PARENT HIGH ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND A PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL FORM ACROSS THE REGION INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 5-10KTS BY MON MORNING AND THEREFORE PLACES WILL NOT
RADIATE AS WELL. FCST MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE AND THE 30S ACROSS THE MTNS. PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE MTNS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE VA
HIGHLANDS AS TEMPS APPROACH 35 DEG.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MAINE TO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS MI. THESE
FEATURES WILL MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM N
TO S LATE TONIGHT...ANOTHER ASPECT THAT WILL HAMPER TEMPS FROM
DROPPING TOO LOW.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY WITH
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT ACROSS NY/PA MONDAY
MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS SOUTHWARD. SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NRN MD AFTER 16Z MONDAY BUT COVERAGE
SEEMS WEAK AND THEREFORE ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. AN
INVERTED V SIGNITURE ON FCST SOUNDINGS AND 20-30KTS AT THE TOP OF
THE MIXING LAYER WILL LEAD TO GUSTY N-NW WINDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON MONDAY. FCST MAX TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S LOW 60S AND
40S IN THE MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
WINDS TAPER OFF MON EVENING AS UPPER LVL TROUGH PIVOTS OFFSHORE
AND THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES SOUTH. SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN THE WAKE
SHOULD LEAD TO SKIES SCATTERING AND DRY CONDITIONS. LOWS MON NIGHT
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY WX THEN PERSISTS TUES THRU TUES NIGHT AS THE REGION REMAINS
POSITIONED BETWEEN TWO CLOSED LOWS. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL NUDGE IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAY
TUES...BUT WILL QUICKLY RETREAT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
STATES BEGINS TO ORGANIZE AND PUSH NORTH. OVERSPREADING PCPN WITH
THIS LOW LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH THRU AT LEAST 12Z WED. TEMPS REMAIN
JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR TUES-TUES NIGHT...THOUGH IF THE WINDS HOLD
MORE TO A NW FLOW RATHER THAN SHIFTING TO THE NORTH...COULD SEE
TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS.

WED WILL BE A RELATIVELY NICE SPRING DAY...WITH TEMPS NEAR CLIMO.
CLOUDS SHOULD START INCREASING BY LATE WED...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTH...AS LOW PRESSURE ALONG GULF COAST BEGINS TO IMPACT OUR
REGION. CLOUDINESS SHOULD HELP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR WED
NIGHT...KEEPING THEM SLIGHTLY AOA NORMAL.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL
HANDLING OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO OUR SOUTH ON THU. STILL APPEARS
THAT THE BULK OF THE IMPACTS REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH...WITH MAINLY LIGHT
SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE CWA THROUGH THU. HOWEVER...THIS COULD
CHANGE IF TRACK OF LOW SHIFTS CLOSER TO OUR AREA. COULD BE SOME
WRAPAROUND PRECIP LINGERING INTO FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WOULD LIKELY
BE LIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS SAT SLIGHTLY AOA NORMAL (L70S) ACROSS CWA...WITH LOW
HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTH WINDS 5-10KT. LIGHT
N-NW FLOW CONTINUES. WINDS INCREASE MONDAY TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS
20 TO 25 KT.

VFR CONDITIONS MON NIGHT-TUES NIGHT.

VFR COND LIKELY WED...BEFORE A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR IN RAIN SHOWERS THU
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
N-NE WINDS 10KT OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT NW LATE
TONIGHT AND INCREASE TOWARDS MORNING AS THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE WEST.
A SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS MONDAY FOR WINDS 15-20 KT
WITH 25 KT GUSTS. SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE MAIN CHANNEL
OF THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC MONDAY NIGHT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ALL WATERS TUES AFTN-NIGHT.

NOT EXPECTING MARINE CONCERNS WED AS FLOW REMAINS LIGHT UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. WIND FIELD INCREASES SOME ON THU...BUT OVERALL STRENGTH
WILL DEPEND ON PROXIMITY OF SFC LOW...WHICH IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ531>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530-
     535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KS
NEAR TERM...HAS/KS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...SEARS/KS/MSE
MARINE...SEARS/HAS/KS/MSE



000
FXUS61 KLWX 270016
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
816 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AROUND THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTS OVERHEAD. THE PARENT HIGH ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND A PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL FORM ACROSS THE REGION INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 5-10KTS BY MON MORNING AND THEREFORE PLACES WILL NOT
RADIATE AS WELL. FCST MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE AND THE 30S ACROSS THE MTNS. PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE MTNS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE VA
HIGHLANDS AS TEMPS APPROACH 35 DEG.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MAINE TO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS MI. THESE
FEATURES WILL MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM N
TO S LATE TONIGHT...ANOTHER ASPECT THAT WILL HAMPER TEMPS FROM
DROPPING TOO LOW.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY WITH
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT ACROSS NY/PA MONDAY
MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS SOUTHWARD. SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NRN MD AFTER 16Z MONDAY BUT COVERAGE
SEEMS WEAK AND THEREFORE ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. AN
INVERTED V SIGNITURE ON FCST SOUNDINGS AND 20-30KTS AT THE TOP OF
THE MIXING LAYER WILL LEAD TO GUSTY N-NW WINDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON MONDAY. FCST MAX TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S LOW 60S AND
40S IN THE MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
WINDS TAPER OFF MON EVENING AS UPPER LVL TROUGH PIVOTS OFFSHORE
AND THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES SOUTH. SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN THE WAKE
SHOULD LEAD TO SKIES SCATTERING AND DRY CONDITIONS. LOWS MON NIGHT
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY WX THEN PERSISTS TUES THRU TUES NIGHT AS THE REGION REMAINS
POSITIONED BETWEEN TWO CLOSED LOWS. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL NUDGE IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAY
TUES...BUT WILL QUICKLY RETREAT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
STATES BEGINS TO ORGANIZE AND PUSH NORTH. OVERSPREADING PCPN WITH
THIS LOW LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH THRU AT LEAST 12Z WED. TEMPS REMAIN
JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR TUES-TUES NIGHT...THOUGH IF THE WINDS HOLD
MORE TO A NW FLOW RATHER THAN SHIFTING TO THE NORTH...COULD SEE
TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS.

WED WILL BE A RELATIVELY NICE SPRING DAY...WITH TEMPS NEAR CLIMO.
CLOUDS SHOULD START INCREASING BY LATE WED...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTH...AS LOW PRESSURE ALONG GULF COAST BEGINS TO IMPACT OUR
REGION. CLOUDINESS SHOULD HELP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR WED
NIGHT...KEEPING THEM SLIGHTLY AOA NORMAL.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL
HANDLING OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO OUR SOUTH ON THU. STILL APPEARS
THAT THE BULK OF THE IMPACTS REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH...WITH MAINLY LIGHT
SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE CWA THROUGH THU. HOWEVER...THIS COULD
CHANGE IF TRACK OF LOW SHIFTS CLOSER TO OUR AREA. COULD BE SOME
WRAPAROUND PRECIP LINGERING INTO FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WOULD LIKELY
BE LIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS SAT SLIGHTLY AOA NORMAL (L70S) ACROSS CWA...WITH LOW
HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTH WINDS 5-10KT. LIGHT
N-NW FLOW CONTINUES. WINDS INCREASE MONDAY TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS
20 TO 25 KT.

VFR CONDITIONS MON NIGHT-TUES NIGHT.

VFR COND LIKELY WED...BEFORE A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR IN RAIN SHOWERS THU
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
N-NE WINDS 10KT OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT NW LATE
TONIGHT AND INCREASE TOWARDS MORNING AS THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE WEST.
A SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS MONDAY FOR WINDS 15-20 KT
WITH 25 KT GUSTS. SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE MAIN CHANNEL
OF THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC MONDAY NIGHT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ALL WATERS TUES AFTN-NIGHT.

NOT EXPECTING MARINE CONCERNS WED AS FLOW REMAINS LIGHT UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. WIND FIELD INCREASES SOME ON THU...BUT OVERALL STRENGTH
WILL DEPEND ON PROXIMITY OF SFC LOW...WHICH IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ531>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530-
     535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KS
NEAR TERM...HAS/KS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...SEARS/KS/MSE
MARINE...SEARS/HAS/KS/MSE




000
FXUS61 KLWX 270016
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
816 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AROUND THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTS OVERHEAD. THE PARENT HIGH ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND A PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL FORM ACROSS THE REGION INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 5-10KTS BY MON MORNING AND THEREFORE PLACES WILL NOT
RADIATE AS WELL. FCST MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE AND THE 30S ACROSS THE MTNS. PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE MTNS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE VA
HIGHLANDS AS TEMPS APPROACH 35 DEG.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MAINE TO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS MI. THESE
FEATURES WILL MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM N
TO S LATE TONIGHT...ANOTHER ASPECT THAT WILL HAMPER TEMPS FROM
DROPPING TOO LOW.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY WITH
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT ACROSS NY/PA MONDAY
MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS SOUTHWARD. SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NRN MD AFTER 16Z MONDAY BUT COVERAGE
SEEMS WEAK AND THEREFORE ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. AN
INVERTED V SIGNITURE ON FCST SOUNDINGS AND 20-30KTS AT THE TOP OF
THE MIXING LAYER WILL LEAD TO GUSTY N-NW WINDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON MONDAY. FCST MAX TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S LOW 60S AND
40S IN THE MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
WINDS TAPER OFF MON EVENING AS UPPER LVL TROUGH PIVOTS OFFSHORE
AND THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES SOUTH. SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN THE WAKE
SHOULD LEAD TO SKIES SCATTERING AND DRY CONDITIONS. LOWS MON NIGHT
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY WX THEN PERSISTS TUES THRU TUES NIGHT AS THE REGION REMAINS
POSITIONED BETWEEN TWO CLOSED LOWS. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL NUDGE IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAY
TUES...BUT WILL QUICKLY RETREAT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
STATES BEGINS TO ORGANIZE AND PUSH NORTH. OVERSPREADING PCPN WITH
THIS LOW LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH THRU AT LEAST 12Z WED. TEMPS REMAIN
JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR TUES-TUES NIGHT...THOUGH IF THE WINDS HOLD
MORE TO A NW FLOW RATHER THAN SHIFTING TO THE NORTH...COULD SEE
TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS.

WED WILL BE A RELATIVELY NICE SPRING DAY...WITH TEMPS NEAR CLIMO.
CLOUDS SHOULD START INCREASING BY LATE WED...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTH...AS LOW PRESSURE ALONG GULF COAST BEGINS TO IMPACT OUR
REGION. CLOUDINESS SHOULD HELP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR WED
NIGHT...KEEPING THEM SLIGHTLY AOA NORMAL.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL
HANDLING OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO OUR SOUTH ON THU. STILL APPEARS
THAT THE BULK OF THE IMPACTS REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH...WITH MAINLY LIGHT
SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE CWA THROUGH THU. HOWEVER...THIS COULD
CHANGE IF TRACK OF LOW SHIFTS CLOSER TO OUR AREA. COULD BE SOME
WRAPAROUND PRECIP LINGERING INTO FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WOULD LIKELY
BE LIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS SAT SLIGHTLY AOA NORMAL (L70S) ACROSS CWA...WITH LOW
HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTH WINDS 5-10KT. LIGHT
N-NW FLOW CONTINUES. WINDS INCREASE MONDAY TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS
20 TO 25 KT.

VFR CONDITIONS MON NIGHT-TUES NIGHT.

VFR COND LIKELY WED...BEFORE A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR IN RAIN SHOWERS THU
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
N-NE WINDS 10KT OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT NW LATE
TONIGHT AND INCREASE TOWARDS MORNING AS THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE WEST.
A SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS MONDAY FOR WINDS 15-20 KT
WITH 25 KT GUSTS. SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE MAIN CHANNEL
OF THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC MONDAY NIGHT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ALL WATERS TUES AFTN-NIGHT.

NOT EXPECTING MARINE CONCERNS WED AS FLOW REMAINS LIGHT UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. WIND FIELD INCREASES SOME ON THU...BUT OVERALL STRENGTH
WILL DEPEND ON PROXIMITY OF SFC LOW...WHICH IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ531>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530-
     535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KS
NEAR TERM...HAS/KS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...SEARS/KS/MSE
MARINE...SEARS/HAS/KS/MSE



000
FXUS61 KLWX 270016
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
816 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AROUND THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTS OVERHEAD. THE PARENT HIGH ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND A PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL FORM ACROSS THE REGION INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 5-10KTS BY MON MORNING AND THEREFORE PLACES WILL NOT
RADIATE AS WELL. FCST MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE AND THE 30S ACROSS THE MTNS. PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE MTNS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE VA
HIGHLANDS AS TEMPS APPROACH 35 DEG.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MAINE TO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS MI. THESE
FEATURES WILL MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM N
TO S LATE TONIGHT...ANOTHER ASPECT THAT WILL HAMPER TEMPS FROM
DROPPING TOO LOW.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY WITH
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT ACROSS NY/PA MONDAY
MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS SOUTHWARD. SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NRN MD AFTER 16Z MONDAY BUT COVERAGE
SEEMS WEAK AND THEREFORE ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. AN
INVERTED V SIGNITURE ON FCST SOUNDINGS AND 20-30KTS AT THE TOP OF
THE MIXING LAYER WILL LEAD TO GUSTY N-NW WINDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON MONDAY. FCST MAX TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S LOW 60S AND
40S IN THE MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
WINDS TAPER OFF MON EVENING AS UPPER LVL TROUGH PIVOTS OFFSHORE
AND THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES SOUTH. SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN THE WAKE
SHOULD LEAD TO SKIES SCATTERING AND DRY CONDITIONS. LOWS MON NIGHT
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY WX THEN PERSISTS TUES THRU TUES NIGHT AS THE REGION REMAINS
POSITIONED BETWEEN TWO CLOSED LOWS. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL NUDGE IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAY
TUES...BUT WILL QUICKLY RETREAT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
STATES BEGINS TO ORGANIZE AND PUSH NORTH. OVERSPREADING PCPN WITH
THIS LOW LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH THRU AT LEAST 12Z WED. TEMPS REMAIN
JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR TUES-TUES NIGHT...THOUGH IF THE WINDS HOLD
MORE TO A NW FLOW RATHER THAN SHIFTING TO THE NORTH...COULD SEE
TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS.

WED WILL BE A RELATIVELY NICE SPRING DAY...WITH TEMPS NEAR CLIMO.
CLOUDS SHOULD START INCREASING BY LATE WED...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTH...AS LOW PRESSURE ALONG GULF COAST BEGINS TO IMPACT OUR
REGION. CLOUDINESS SHOULD HELP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR WED
NIGHT...KEEPING THEM SLIGHTLY AOA NORMAL.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL
HANDLING OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO OUR SOUTH ON THU. STILL APPEARS
THAT THE BULK OF THE IMPACTS REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH...WITH MAINLY LIGHT
SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE CWA THROUGH THU. HOWEVER...THIS COULD
CHANGE IF TRACK OF LOW SHIFTS CLOSER TO OUR AREA. COULD BE SOME
WRAPAROUND PRECIP LINGERING INTO FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WOULD LIKELY
BE LIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS SAT SLIGHTLY AOA NORMAL (L70S) ACROSS CWA...WITH LOW
HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTH WINDS 5-10KT. LIGHT
N-NW FLOW CONTINUES. WINDS INCREASE MONDAY TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS
20 TO 25 KT.

VFR CONDITIONS MON NIGHT-TUES NIGHT.

VFR COND LIKELY WED...BEFORE A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR IN RAIN SHOWERS THU
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
N-NE WINDS 10KT OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT NW LATE
TONIGHT AND INCREASE TOWARDS MORNING AS THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE WEST.
A SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS MONDAY FOR WINDS 15-20 KT
WITH 25 KT GUSTS. SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE MAIN CHANNEL
OF THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC MONDAY NIGHT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ALL WATERS TUES AFTN-NIGHT.

NOT EXPECTING MARINE CONCERNS WED AS FLOW REMAINS LIGHT UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. WIND FIELD INCREASES SOME ON THU...BUT OVERALL STRENGTH
WILL DEPEND ON PROXIMITY OF SFC LOW...WHICH IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ531>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530-
     535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KS
NEAR TERM...HAS/KS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...SEARS/KS/MSE
MARINE...SEARS/HAS/KS/MSE



000
FXUS61 KLWX 270016
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
816 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AROUND THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTS OVERHEAD. THE PARENT HIGH ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND A PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL FORM ACROSS THE REGION INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 5-10KTS BY MON MORNING AND THEREFORE PLACES WILL NOT
RADIATE AS WELL. FCST MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE AND THE 30S ACROSS THE MTNS. PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE MTNS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE VA
HIGHLANDS AS TEMPS APPROACH 35 DEG.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MAINE TO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS MI. THESE
FEATURES WILL MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM N
TO S LATE TONIGHT...ANOTHER ASPECT THAT WILL HAMPER TEMPS FROM
DROPPING TOO LOW.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY WITH
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT ACROSS NY/PA MONDAY
MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS SOUTHWARD. SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NRN MD AFTER 16Z MONDAY BUT COVERAGE
SEEMS WEAK AND THEREFORE ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. AN
INVERTED V SIGNITURE ON FCST SOUNDINGS AND 20-30KTS AT THE TOP OF
THE MIXING LAYER WILL LEAD TO GUSTY N-NW WINDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON MONDAY. FCST MAX TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S LOW 60S AND
40S IN THE MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
WINDS TAPER OFF MON EVENING AS UPPER LVL TROUGH PIVOTS OFFSHORE
AND THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES SOUTH. SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN THE WAKE
SHOULD LEAD TO SKIES SCATTERING AND DRY CONDITIONS. LOWS MON NIGHT
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY WX THEN PERSISTS TUES THRU TUES NIGHT AS THE REGION REMAINS
POSITIONED BETWEEN TWO CLOSED LOWS. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL NUDGE IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAY
TUES...BUT WILL QUICKLY RETREAT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
STATES BEGINS TO ORGANIZE AND PUSH NORTH. OVERSPREADING PCPN WITH
THIS LOW LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH THRU AT LEAST 12Z WED. TEMPS REMAIN
JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR TUES-TUES NIGHT...THOUGH IF THE WINDS HOLD
MORE TO A NW FLOW RATHER THAN SHIFTING TO THE NORTH...COULD SEE
TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS.

WED WILL BE A RELATIVELY NICE SPRING DAY...WITH TEMPS NEAR CLIMO.
CLOUDS SHOULD START INCREASING BY LATE WED...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTH...AS LOW PRESSURE ALONG GULF COAST BEGINS TO IMPACT OUR
REGION. CLOUDINESS SHOULD HELP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR WED
NIGHT...KEEPING THEM SLIGHTLY AOA NORMAL.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL
HANDLING OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO OUR SOUTH ON THU. STILL APPEARS
THAT THE BULK OF THE IMPACTS REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH...WITH MAINLY LIGHT
SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE CWA THROUGH THU. HOWEVER...THIS COULD
CHANGE IF TRACK OF LOW SHIFTS CLOSER TO OUR AREA. COULD BE SOME
WRAPAROUND PRECIP LINGERING INTO FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WOULD LIKELY
BE LIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS SAT SLIGHTLY AOA NORMAL (L70S) ACROSS CWA...WITH LOW
HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTH WINDS 5-10KT. LIGHT
N-NW FLOW CONTINUES. WINDS INCREASE MONDAY TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS
20 TO 25 KT.

VFR CONDITIONS MON NIGHT-TUES NIGHT.

VFR COND LIKELY WED...BEFORE A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR IN RAIN SHOWERS THU
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
N-NE WINDS 10KT OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT NW LATE
TONIGHT AND INCREASE TOWARDS MORNING AS THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE WEST.
A SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS MONDAY FOR WINDS 15-20 KT
WITH 25 KT GUSTS. SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE MAIN CHANNEL
OF THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC MONDAY NIGHT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ALL WATERS TUES AFTN-NIGHT.

NOT EXPECTING MARINE CONCERNS WED AS FLOW REMAINS LIGHT UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. WIND FIELD INCREASES SOME ON THU...BUT OVERALL STRENGTH
WILL DEPEND ON PROXIMITY OF SFC LOW...WHICH IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ531>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530-
     535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KS
NEAR TERM...HAS/KS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...SEARS/KS/MSE
MARINE...SEARS/HAS/KS/MSE



000
FXUS61 KLWX 270016
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
816 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AROUND THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTS OVERHEAD. THE PARENT HIGH ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND A PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL FORM ACROSS THE REGION INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 5-10KTS BY MON MORNING AND THEREFORE PLACES WILL NOT
RADIATE AS WELL. FCST MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE AND THE 30S ACROSS THE MTNS. PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE MTNS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE VA
HIGHLANDS AS TEMPS APPROACH 35 DEG.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MAINE TO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS MI. THESE
FEATURES WILL MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM N
TO S LATE TONIGHT...ANOTHER ASPECT THAT WILL HAMPER TEMPS FROM
DROPPING TOO LOW.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY WITH
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT ACROSS NY/PA MONDAY
MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS SOUTHWARD. SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NRN MD AFTER 16Z MONDAY BUT COVERAGE
SEEMS WEAK AND THEREFORE ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. AN
INVERTED V SIGNITURE ON FCST SOUNDINGS AND 20-30KTS AT THE TOP OF
THE MIXING LAYER WILL LEAD TO GUSTY N-NW WINDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON MONDAY. FCST MAX TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S LOW 60S AND
40S IN THE MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
WINDS TAPER OFF MON EVENING AS UPPER LVL TROUGH PIVOTS OFFSHORE
AND THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES SOUTH. SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN THE WAKE
SHOULD LEAD TO SKIES SCATTERING AND DRY CONDITIONS. LOWS MON NIGHT
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY WX THEN PERSISTS TUES THRU TUES NIGHT AS THE REGION REMAINS
POSITIONED BETWEEN TWO CLOSED LOWS. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL NUDGE IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAY
TUES...BUT WILL QUICKLY RETREAT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
STATES BEGINS TO ORGANIZE AND PUSH NORTH. OVERSPREADING PCPN WITH
THIS LOW LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH THRU AT LEAST 12Z WED. TEMPS REMAIN
JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR TUES-TUES NIGHT...THOUGH IF THE WINDS HOLD
MORE TO A NW FLOW RATHER THAN SHIFTING TO THE NORTH...COULD SEE
TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS.

WED WILL BE A RELATIVELY NICE SPRING DAY...WITH TEMPS NEAR CLIMO.
CLOUDS SHOULD START INCREASING BY LATE WED...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTH...AS LOW PRESSURE ALONG GULF COAST BEGINS TO IMPACT OUR
REGION. CLOUDINESS SHOULD HELP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR WED
NIGHT...KEEPING THEM SLIGHTLY AOA NORMAL.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL
HANDLING OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO OUR SOUTH ON THU. STILL APPEARS
THAT THE BULK OF THE IMPACTS REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH...WITH MAINLY LIGHT
SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE CWA THROUGH THU. HOWEVER...THIS COULD
CHANGE IF TRACK OF LOW SHIFTS CLOSER TO OUR AREA. COULD BE SOME
WRAPAROUND PRECIP LINGERING INTO FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WOULD LIKELY
BE LIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS SAT SLIGHTLY AOA NORMAL (L70S) ACROSS CWA...WITH LOW
HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTH WINDS 5-10KT. LIGHT
N-NW FLOW CONTINUES. WINDS INCREASE MONDAY TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS
20 TO 25 KT.

VFR CONDITIONS MON NIGHT-TUES NIGHT.

VFR COND LIKELY WED...BEFORE A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR IN RAIN SHOWERS THU
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
N-NE WINDS 10KT OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT NW LATE
TONIGHT AND INCREASE TOWARDS MORNING AS THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE WEST.
A SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS MONDAY FOR WINDS 15-20 KT
WITH 25 KT GUSTS. SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE MAIN CHANNEL
OF THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC MONDAY NIGHT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ALL WATERS TUES AFTN-NIGHT.

NOT EXPECTING MARINE CONCERNS WED AS FLOW REMAINS LIGHT UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. WIND FIELD INCREASES SOME ON THU...BUT OVERALL STRENGTH
WILL DEPEND ON PROXIMITY OF SFC LOW...WHICH IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ531>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530-
     535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KS
NEAR TERM...HAS/KS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...SEARS/KS/MSE
MARINE...SEARS/HAS/KS/MSE



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 262321
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
721 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
520 PM...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO SLOW DOWN ARRIVAL OF PRECIP LATER
TONIGHT. GFS/NAM/SREF ALL AGREE THAT PRECIPITATION FROM
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE AFTER 06Z AND MORE SO UNTIL 12Z.
MOISTURE/LIFT NOT SUFFICIENT EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. WHEN IT DOES
ARRIVE...THINK ENOUGH COLD AIR IS PRESENT IN THE LOW LEVELS FOR A
FEW SNOWFLAKES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA IN ADDITION TO RIDGES. NOT
GOING WITH ACCUMULATION HOWEVER DUE TO VERY LIGHT NATURE OF
EXPECTED PRECIP.  TEMPERATURES IN DECENT SHAPE FOR NOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MONDAY...

SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTH DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH CONTINUED LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS. CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN A DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE SOUTH TO NORTH WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

TEMPERATURE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD A BLEND OF MOS WHICH IS
NEAR 5 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT. STILL
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AS DOUBT ON HOW MUCH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE. BY THE WEEKEND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS REGION WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE AVERAGE BY
SUNDAY. IN GENERAL CLOSE TO WPC TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE.
AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED FOR A MONDAY PASSAGE WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING...SO INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION FOR MOST
PORTS. SNOW COULD BRIEFLY MIX IN NORTH OF I 80. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED AT FKL AND DUJ BY SUNRISE...WITH LOW VFR STRATOCU
DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE MORNING. AS MIXING BEGINS MONDAY
EXPECTING GUSTY WNW WINDS BY MID MORNING.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH SOUTHEAST CONUS LOW
PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 262321
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
721 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
520 PM...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO SLOW DOWN ARRIVAL OF PRECIP LATER
TONIGHT. GFS/NAM/SREF ALL AGREE THAT PRECIPITATION FROM
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE AFTER 06Z AND MORE SO UNTIL 12Z.
MOISTURE/LIFT NOT SUFFICIENT EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. WHEN IT DOES
ARRIVE...THINK ENOUGH COLD AIR IS PRESENT IN THE LOW LEVELS FOR A
FEW SNOWFLAKES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA IN ADDITION TO RIDGES. NOT
GOING WITH ACCUMULATION HOWEVER DUE TO VERY LIGHT NATURE OF
EXPECTED PRECIP.  TEMPERATURES IN DECENT SHAPE FOR NOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MONDAY...

SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTH DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH CONTINUED LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS. CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN A DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE SOUTH TO NORTH WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

TEMPERATURE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD A BLEND OF MOS WHICH IS
NEAR 5 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT. STILL
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AS DOUBT ON HOW MUCH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE. BY THE WEEKEND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS REGION WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE AVERAGE BY
SUNDAY. IN GENERAL CLOSE TO WPC TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE.
AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED FOR A MONDAY PASSAGE WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING...SO INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION FOR MOST
PORTS. SNOW COULD BRIEFLY MIX IN NORTH OF I 80. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED AT FKL AND DUJ BY SUNRISE...WITH LOW VFR STRATOCU
DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE MORNING. AS MIXING BEGINS MONDAY
EXPECTING GUSTY WNW WINDS BY MID MORNING.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH SOUTHEAST CONUS LOW
PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 262321
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
721 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
520 PM...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO SLOW DOWN ARRIVAL OF PRECIP LATER
TONIGHT. GFS/NAM/SREF ALL AGREE THAT PRECIPITATION FROM
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE AFTER 06Z AND MORE SO UNTIL 12Z.
MOISTURE/LIFT NOT SUFFICIENT EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. WHEN IT DOES
ARRIVE...THINK ENOUGH COLD AIR IS PRESENT IN THE LOW LEVELS FOR A
FEW SNOWFLAKES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA IN ADDITION TO RIDGES. NOT
GOING WITH ACCUMULATION HOWEVER DUE TO VERY LIGHT NATURE OF
EXPECTED PRECIP.  TEMPERATURES IN DECENT SHAPE FOR NOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MONDAY...

SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTH DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH CONTINUED LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS. CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN A DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE SOUTH TO NORTH WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

TEMPERATURE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD A BLEND OF MOS WHICH IS
NEAR 5 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT. STILL
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AS DOUBT ON HOW MUCH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE. BY THE WEEKEND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS REGION WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE AVERAGE BY
SUNDAY. IN GENERAL CLOSE TO WPC TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE.
AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED FOR A MONDAY PASSAGE WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING...SO INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION FOR MOST
PORTS. SNOW COULD BRIEFLY MIX IN NORTH OF I 80. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED AT FKL AND DUJ BY SUNRISE...WITH LOW VFR STRATOCU
DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE MORNING. AS MIXING BEGINS MONDAY
EXPECTING GUSTY WNW WINDS BY MID MORNING.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH SOUTHEAST CONUS LOW
PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 262321
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
721 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
520 PM...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO SLOW DOWN ARRIVAL OF PRECIP LATER
TONIGHT. GFS/NAM/SREF ALL AGREE THAT PRECIPITATION FROM
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE AFTER 06Z AND MORE SO UNTIL 12Z.
MOISTURE/LIFT NOT SUFFICIENT EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. WHEN IT DOES
ARRIVE...THINK ENOUGH COLD AIR IS PRESENT IN THE LOW LEVELS FOR A
FEW SNOWFLAKES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA IN ADDITION TO RIDGES. NOT
GOING WITH ACCUMULATION HOWEVER DUE TO VERY LIGHT NATURE OF
EXPECTED PRECIP.  TEMPERATURES IN DECENT SHAPE FOR NOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MONDAY...

SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTH DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH CONTINUED LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS. CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN A DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE SOUTH TO NORTH WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

TEMPERATURE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD A BLEND OF MOS WHICH IS
NEAR 5 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT. STILL
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AS DOUBT ON HOW MUCH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE. BY THE WEEKEND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS REGION WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE AVERAGE BY
SUNDAY. IN GENERAL CLOSE TO WPC TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE.
AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED FOR A MONDAY PASSAGE WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING...SO INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION FOR MOST
PORTS. SNOW COULD BRIEFLY MIX IN NORTH OF I 80. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED AT FKL AND DUJ BY SUNRISE...WITH LOW VFR STRATOCU
DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE MORNING. AS MIXING BEGINS MONDAY
EXPECTING GUSTY WNW WINDS BY MID MORNING.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH SOUTHEAST CONUS LOW
PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 262127
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
527 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
520 PM...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO SLOW DOWN ARRIVAL OF PRECIP LATER
TONIGHT. GFS/NAM/SREF ALL AGREE THAT PRECIPITATION FROM
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE AFTER 06Z AND MORE SO UNTIL 12Z.
MOISTURE/LIFT NOT SUFFICIENT EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. WHEN IT DOES
ARRIVE...THINK ENOUGH COLD AIR IS PRESENT IN THE LOW LEVELS FOR A
FEW SNOWFLAKES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA IN ADDITION TO RIDGES. NOT
GOING WITH ACCUMULATION HOWEVER DUE TO VERY LIGHT NATURE OF
EXPECTED PRECIP.  TEMPERATURES IN DECENT SHAPE FOR NOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MONDAY...

SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTH DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH CONTINUED LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS. CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN A DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE SOUTH TO NORTH WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

TEMPERATURE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD A BLEND OF MOS WHICH IS
NEAR 5 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT. STILL
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AS DOUBT ON HOW MUCH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE. BY THE WEEKEND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS REGION WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE AVERAGE BY
SUNDAY. IN GENERAL CLOSE TO WPC TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCT-BKN VFR CU THIS AFTERNOON WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO
MID DECK AS A SHORTWAVE HEADS SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION. LATER
TONIGHT MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN WITH MVFR CIGS AT NORTHERN PORTS AND
LOWERING VFR CIGS SOUTH. NORTHERLY FLOW AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNCHANGED THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS GENERALLY
NORTH 5 TO 10 KTS.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 262127
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
527 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
520 PM...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO SLOW DOWN ARRIVAL OF PRECIP LATER
TONIGHT. GFS/NAM/SREF ALL AGREE THAT PRECIPITATION FROM
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE AFTER 06Z AND MORE SO UNTIL 12Z.
MOISTURE/LIFT NOT SUFFICIENT EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. WHEN IT DOES
ARRIVE...THINK ENOUGH COLD AIR IS PRESENT IN THE LOW LEVELS FOR A
FEW SNOWFLAKES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA IN ADDITION TO RIDGES. NOT
GOING WITH ACCUMULATION HOWEVER DUE TO VERY LIGHT NATURE OF
EXPECTED PRECIP.  TEMPERATURES IN DECENT SHAPE FOR NOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MONDAY...

SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTH DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH CONTINUED LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS. CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN A DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE SOUTH TO NORTH WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

TEMPERATURE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD A BLEND OF MOS WHICH IS
NEAR 5 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT. STILL
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AS DOUBT ON HOW MUCH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE. BY THE WEEKEND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS REGION WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE AVERAGE BY
SUNDAY. IN GENERAL CLOSE TO WPC TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCT-BKN VFR CU THIS AFTERNOON WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO
MID DECK AS A SHORTWAVE HEADS SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION. LATER
TONIGHT MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN WITH MVFR CIGS AT NORTHERN PORTS AND
LOWERING VFR CIGS SOUTH. NORTHERLY FLOW AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNCHANGED THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS GENERALLY
NORTH 5 TO 10 KTS.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 262127
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
527 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
520 PM...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO SLOW DOWN ARRIVAL OF PRECIP LATER
TONIGHT. GFS/NAM/SREF ALL AGREE THAT PRECIPITATION FROM
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE AFTER 06Z AND MORE SO UNTIL 12Z.
MOISTURE/LIFT NOT SUFFICIENT EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. WHEN IT DOES
ARRIVE...THINK ENOUGH COLD AIR IS PRESENT IN THE LOW LEVELS FOR A
FEW SNOWFLAKES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA IN ADDITION TO RIDGES. NOT
GOING WITH ACCUMULATION HOWEVER DUE TO VERY LIGHT NATURE OF
EXPECTED PRECIP.  TEMPERATURES IN DECENT SHAPE FOR NOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MONDAY...

SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTH DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH CONTINUED LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS. CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN A DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE SOUTH TO NORTH WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

TEMPERATURE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD A BLEND OF MOS WHICH IS
NEAR 5 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT. STILL
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AS DOUBT ON HOW MUCH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE. BY THE WEEKEND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS REGION WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE AVERAGE BY
SUNDAY. IN GENERAL CLOSE TO WPC TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCT-BKN VFR CU THIS AFTERNOON WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO
MID DECK AS A SHORTWAVE HEADS SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION. LATER
TONIGHT MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN WITH MVFR CIGS AT NORTHERN PORTS AND
LOWERING VFR CIGS SOUTH. NORTHERLY FLOW AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNCHANGED THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS GENERALLY
NORTH 5 TO 10 KTS.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 262127
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
527 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
520 PM...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO SLOW DOWN ARRIVAL OF PRECIP LATER
TONIGHT. GFS/NAM/SREF ALL AGREE THAT PRECIPITATION FROM
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE AFTER 06Z AND MORE SO UNTIL 12Z.
MOISTURE/LIFT NOT SUFFICIENT EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. WHEN IT DOES
ARRIVE...THINK ENOUGH COLD AIR IS PRESENT IN THE LOW LEVELS FOR A
FEW SNOWFLAKES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA IN ADDITION TO RIDGES. NOT
GOING WITH ACCUMULATION HOWEVER DUE TO VERY LIGHT NATURE OF
EXPECTED PRECIP.  TEMPERATURES IN DECENT SHAPE FOR NOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MONDAY...

SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTH DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH CONTINUED LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS. CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN A DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE SOUTH TO NORTH WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

TEMPERATURE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD A BLEND OF MOS WHICH IS
NEAR 5 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT. STILL
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AS DOUBT ON HOW MUCH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE. BY THE WEEKEND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS REGION WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE AVERAGE BY
SUNDAY. IN GENERAL CLOSE TO WPC TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCT-BKN VFR CU THIS AFTERNOON WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO
MID DECK AS A SHORTWAVE HEADS SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION. LATER
TONIGHT MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN WITH MVFR CIGS AT NORTHERN PORTS AND
LOWERING VFR CIGS SOUTH. NORTHERLY FLOW AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNCHANGED THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS GENERALLY
NORTH 5 TO 10 KTS.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 262127
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
527 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
520 PM...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO SLOW DOWN ARRIVAL OF PRECIP LATER
TONIGHT. GFS/NAM/SREF ALL AGREE THAT PRECIPITATION FROM
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE AFTER 06Z AND MORE SO UNTIL 12Z.
MOISTURE/LIFT NOT SUFFICIENT EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. WHEN IT DOES
ARRIVE...THINK ENOUGH COLD AIR IS PRESENT IN THE LOW LEVELS FOR A
FEW SNOWFLAKES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA IN ADDITION TO RIDGES. NOT
GOING WITH ACCUMULATION HOWEVER DUE TO VERY LIGHT NATURE OF
EXPECTED PRECIP.  TEMPERATURES IN DECENT SHAPE FOR NOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MONDAY...

SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTH DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH CONTINUED LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS. CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN A DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE SOUTH TO NORTH WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

TEMPERATURE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD A BLEND OF MOS WHICH IS
NEAR 5 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT. STILL
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AS DOUBT ON HOW MUCH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE. BY THE WEEKEND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS REGION WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE AVERAGE BY
SUNDAY. IN GENERAL CLOSE TO WPC TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCT-BKN VFR CU THIS AFTERNOON WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO
MID DECK AS A SHORTWAVE HEADS SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION. LATER
TONIGHT MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN WITH MVFR CIGS AT NORTHERN PORTS AND
LOWERING VFR CIGS SOUTH. NORTHERLY FLOW AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNCHANGED THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS GENERALLY
NORTH 5 TO 10 KTS.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 262001
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
401 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC LOW PRESSURE NOW WELL OFF THE SE
COAST...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OVER SC. WHILE PARENT SFC
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER CANADA...JUST ENOUGH NW CONFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT HAS ENABLED SFC RIDGE TO EXTEND INTO THE LOCAL AREA
THIS AFTN. THE RESULT HAS BEEN A NICER AFTN THAN ANTICIPATED...PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES NOW COVER MOST OF THE REGION...ONLY NE NC AND SOUTH
CENTRAL VA ZONES NEAR THE NC BORDER REMAIN CLOUDY. LITTLE TO
NOTHING ON THE RADAR...WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP IN NE NC THROUGH
22Z...OTHERWISE WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
INTO EARLY EVENING WILL AVG IN THE LOW 60S OVER INTERIOR NRN 1/2
OF THE CWA...TO THE MID 50S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND IN NE NC.

ONLY CONCERN LATER TONIGHT WILL BE FOR POTENTIAL FOG DUE TO WET
GROUND AND CLEARING SKIES. SINCE SOME DRYING HAS PREVAILED THIS
AFTN...AND WITH SFC DEW PTS NOW FALLING INTO THE 30S IN MANY
AREAS...THINKING IS THAT FOG WILL BE PATCHY IF IT DEVELOPS AT ALL.
ALSO...NOT REALLY AN IDEAL PRESSURE PATTERN FOR FOG AS SFC HIGH
DOES NOT BUILD OVER THE AREA AND SOME ADDITIONAL MIXING IS
POSSIBLE. FOR NOW DID NOT INCLUDE FOG IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST.
LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 40-45 F RANGE...BUT SOME INTERIOR
SECTIONS COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S. VARIABLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BROAD UPR LVL LO PRES EXTENDING FM CANADIAN MARITIMES TO SE GREAT LAKES
WILL RMN IN PLACE THROUGH MON NIGHT. S/W DIVING SE THROUGH THE
MDATLC STATES ON MON BRINGS VRB CLDS AND LO POPS - ESP N AND E
LOCATIONS (ALG W/ CONTD COOL CONDS). HI TEMPS MON IN THE L60S NE
TO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 60S ELSW. BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR MON
NIGHT...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER ON TUE W/ INCREASED AMTS OF
SUNSHINE...HIGHS MNLY INTO THE MID 60S AT THE COAST TO U60S TO
AROUND 70 F INLAND. INCREASING CLOUDS/MOISTURE ON WED AS SFC HIGH
DRIFTS OFF THE COAST...THOUGH BULK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND POPS LOOK
TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE WED...WILL MAINTAIN 20-40% POPS IN THE AFTN
SW...DRY NE. HIGHS INTO THE MID 60S SW TO AROUND 70 F ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FORECAST BEGINNING WED NIGHT REMAINS WEIGHTED
TOWARD THE WPC/ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS LOW PRESSURE UP THE SE
COAST WED NIGHT...THEN DEEPENS THE LOW OFF THE OBX ON THURSDAY
BEFORE QUICKLY SHOVING IT WELL OUT TO SEA THURSDAY NIGHT. BASED ON
THIS SOLUTION...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) NORTH AND CHC
POPS (30-50%) ACROSS THE SOUTH WED NIGHT. WILL EXPAND CHC POPS
(30-40%) INTO NORTHERN AREAS ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH CHC TO LIKELY
POPS (50-60%) ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS (HIGHEST FAR SE)...BEFORE
DWINDLING RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PULLS AWAY. THE ECMWF DOES BRING A PIECE OF NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY
SOUTH INTO THE FA THURS NIGHT WHICH MAY ACTUALLY LINGER PCPN CHANCES
INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY. FOR NOW...WILL COVER THE POSSIBILITY WITH SLIGHT
CHC POPS. DRY WX THEN RETURNS LATER FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S THU/FRI...EXCEPT SOME UPR 50S
IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCALES. (NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.)
HIGHS THEN WARM INTO THE MID/UPR 60S AT THE COAST TO MID/UPR 70S
INLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...THE MAIN CLOUD BAND HAS PUSHED SOUTH INTO SRN VA/NC. BKN
STRATOCU HAS DEVELOPED N OF THE BAND. N WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS ARE
FORECAST WITH HIGHER WINDS AT ECG.

THE SKY SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AROUND SUNSET. WITH WINDS
BECOMING CALM OR LIGHT DURING THE EVENING...CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY
FOG. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS TOWARD SUNRISE WOULD LIMIT
FOG. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUGGEST FOG EXCEPT AT ECG. CONFIDENCE
WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION WITH THE 18Z ISSUANCE.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY. THERE IS A SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS AT
SBY MONDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW INTENSIFIES OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AND MAY PRODUCE PCPN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS. IFR CONDS
ARE PSBL. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ANZ658 WITH SEAS
OUT AROUND 20 NM AROUND 5 FT.

HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THRU MIDDAY MONDAY FOR
RELATIVELY LIGHT N-NW WINDS. LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS TO THE LOCAL AREA LATE MONDAY THRU
TUES MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL THE WATERS DURING
THIS TIME. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT ON THE BAY MON NIGHT...WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 4-5 FT ON THE OCEAN. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TUE AFTN
THRU WED NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS IS LIKELY FOR ALL
WATERS THU/FRI AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ633-650-652-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...JDM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 262001
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
401 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC LOW PRESSURE NOW WELL OFF THE SE
COAST...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OVER SC. WHILE PARENT SFC
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER CANADA...JUST ENOUGH NW CONFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT HAS ENABLED SFC RIDGE TO EXTEND INTO THE LOCAL AREA
THIS AFTN. THE RESULT HAS BEEN A NICER AFTN THAN ANTICIPATED...PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES NOW COVER MOST OF THE REGION...ONLY NE NC AND SOUTH
CENTRAL VA ZONES NEAR THE NC BORDER REMAIN CLOUDY. LITTLE TO
NOTHING ON THE RADAR...WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP IN NE NC THROUGH
22Z...OTHERWISE WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
INTO EARLY EVENING WILL AVG IN THE LOW 60S OVER INTERIOR NRN 1/2
OF THE CWA...TO THE MID 50S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND IN NE NC.

ONLY CONCERN LATER TONIGHT WILL BE FOR POTENTIAL FOG DUE TO WET
GROUND AND CLEARING SKIES. SINCE SOME DRYING HAS PREVAILED THIS
AFTN...AND WITH SFC DEW PTS NOW FALLING INTO THE 30S IN MANY
AREAS...THINKING IS THAT FOG WILL BE PATCHY IF IT DEVELOPS AT ALL.
ALSO...NOT REALLY AN IDEAL PRESSURE PATTERN FOR FOG AS SFC HIGH
DOES NOT BUILD OVER THE AREA AND SOME ADDITIONAL MIXING IS
POSSIBLE. FOR NOW DID NOT INCLUDE FOG IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST.
LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 40-45 F RANGE...BUT SOME INTERIOR
SECTIONS COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S. VARIABLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BROAD UPR LVL LO PRES EXTENDING FM CANADIAN MARITIMES TO SE GREAT LAKES
WILL RMN IN PLACE THROUGH MON NIGHT. S/W DIVING SE THROUGH THE
MDATLC STATES ON MON BRINGS VRB CLDS AND LO POPS - ESP N AND E
LOCATIONS (ALG W/ CONTD COOL CONDS). HI TEMPS MON IN THE L60S NE
TO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 60S ELSW. BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR MON
NIGHT...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER ON TUE W/ INCREASED AMTS OF
SUNSHINE...HIGHS MNLY INTO THE MID 60S AT THE COAST TO U60S TO
AROUND 70 F INLAND. INCREASING CLOUDS/MOISTURE ON WED AS SFC HIGH
DRIFTS OFF THE COAST...THOUGH BULK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND POPS LOOK
TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE WED...WILL MAINTAIN 20-40% POPS IN THE AFTN
SW...DRY NE. HIGHS INTO THE MID 60S SW TO AROUND 70 F ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FORECAST BEGINNING WED NIGHT REMAINS WEIGHTED
TOWARD THE WPC/ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS LOW PRESSURE UP THE SE
COAST WED NIGHT...THEN DEEPENS THE LOW OFF THE OBX ON THURSDAY
BEFORE QUICKLY SHOVING IT WELL OUT TO SEA THURSDAY NIGHT. BASED ON
THIS SOLUTION...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) NORTH AND CHC
POPS (30-50%) ACROSS THE SOUTH WED NIGHT. WILL EXPAND CHC POPS
(30-40%) INTO NORTHERN AREAS ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH CHC TO LIKELY
POPS (50-60%) ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS (HIGHEST FAR SE)...BEFORE
DWINDLING RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PULLS AWAY. THE ECMWF DOES BRING A PIECE OF NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY
SOUTH INTO THE FA THURS NIGHT WHICH MAY ACTUALLY LINGER PCPN CHANCES
INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY. FOR NOW...WILL COVER THE POSSIBILITY WITH SLIGHT
CHC POPS. DRY WX THEN RETURNS LATER FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S THU/FRI...EXCEPT SOME UPR 50S
IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCALES. (NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.)
HIGHS THEN WARM INTO THE MID/UPR 60S AT THE COAST TO MID/UPR 70S
INLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...THE MAIN CLOUD BAND HAS PUSHED SOUTH INTO SRN VA/NC. BKN
STRATOCU HAS DEVELOPED N OF THE BAND. N WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS ARE
FORECAST WITH HIGHER WINDS AT ECG.

THE SKY SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AROUND SUNSET. WITH WINDS
BECOMING CALM OR LIGHT DURING THE EVENING...CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY
FOG. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS TOWARD SUNRISE WOULD LIMIT
FOG. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUGGEST FOG EXCEPT AT ECG. CONFIDENCE
WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION WITH THE 18Z ISSUANCE.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY. THERE IS A SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS AT
SBY MONDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW INTENSIFIES OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AND MAY PRODUCE PCPN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS. IFR CONDS
ARE PSBL. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ANZ658 WITH SEAS
OUT AROUND 20 NM AROUND 5 FT.

HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THRU MIDDAY MONDAY FOR
RELATIVELY LIGHT N-NW WINDS. LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS TO THE LOCAL AREA LATE MONDAY THRU
TUES MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL THE WATERS DURING
THIS TIME. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT ON THE BAY MON NIGHT...WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 4-5 FT ON THE OCEAN. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TUE AFTN
THRU WED NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS IS LIKELY FOR ALL
WATERS THU/FRI AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ633-650-652-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...JDM




000
FXUS61 KPHI 261936
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
336 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AND COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OUT TO SEA DURING THE EARLY
AND MIDDLE PARTS OF THE NEW WEEK. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO OUR REGION GRADUALLY FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEST.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST ON THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING OUT TO SEA. HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY
BEFORE PASSING OFF THE COAST DURING THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRES SHOULD CONT TO BUILD SWD INTO THE N-CNTRL
US AND SLIGHTLY EWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. MEANWHILE LOW
PRES IS FCST TO RETRO-GRADE SWWD OVER NOVA SCOTIA IN ASSOCN WITH
AN UPPER TROF SWINGING SWD FROM SERN CANADA INTO THE NERN US. THE
RESULT WILL BE AN INCRG E-W PRES GRADIENT OVER OUR AREA WHICH
SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN A LIGHT N-NNW FLOW OVERNIGHT SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR BUT SOME CLOUDINESS IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROF. OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT...BUT SOME MID-30S ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME BETTER- RADIATING
AREAS. WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF PATCHY FROST BUT EXTENT DOES NOT
SEEM WIDE ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY ANOTHER ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
FOR MONDAY THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH HIGH
PRES OVER THE MID-WEST AND LOW PRES WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WITH A
CENTER NEAR NOVA SCOTIA. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE BUT SHOULD BE
SMWHAT STRONGER THAN TODAY WITH A STRONGER GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
HIGH AND LOW. MAX TEMPS MONDAY AFTN COULD BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN
TODAY DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDINESS...ESPECIALLY FROM PHL NORTH.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTN...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL HGT/THERMAL TROF ROTATES SWD ACROSS THE
AREA. COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN INCREASED INSTBY ALONG
WITH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...HOWEVER THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOS WILL
REMAIN RATHER DRY WITH INVERTED VEE TYPE SOUNDING. THUS THE PRECIP
FROM SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL TEND TO EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING
THE GROUND. WE HAVE INCLUDED SLGT CHC POPS FOR MOST OF OUR FCST
AREA WITH SLGTLY HIER CHC POPS WELL N/W OF PHL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WE SHOULD REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID LEVEL LOW OFF NOVA
SCOTIA DURING THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED DURING THE COURSE OF MONDAY NIGHT WITH
CUMULUS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.
A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH IS FORECAST FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH A BIT FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN OUR REGION RELAXES.

A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST AND IT SHOULD BE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THEIR
HANDLING OF THE DEVELOPING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
STATES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ALSO, THERE IS IMPROVING BUT NOT
YET IDEAL CONSENSUS REGARDING THE SURFACE LOW. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION BASED ON ITS BETTER RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY.

THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE OFF CAPE HATTERAS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AND OUT TO SEA. OUR REGION IS
ANTICIPATED TO STAY ON THE NORTHWESTERN FRINGE OF ITS MAIN
IMPACTS. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW REMAINS UNCERTAIN SO WE MAY OR
MAY NOT GET SOME RAIN IN ADDITION TO THE CLOUD COVER, ESPECIALLY
ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. WE HAVE KEPT THE 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THE TIME BEING. AN EAST WIND AROUND 10 MPH ON THURSDAY
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT
BACKS TO THE NORTHEAST, THEN TO THE NORTH.

THE COMPLEX MID LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OVER THE
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC FOR THE WEEKEND. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST AT THAT TIME. THE FEATURE
IS ANTICIPATED TO HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. A
SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE
EASTERN STATES FOR THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF MAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT BE FAR FROM NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL OUR TAF SITES FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. AFTN STRATO-CU HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA BUT BASES ARE HIGH...WELL ABOVE BKN050. THESE CLOUDS WILL
TEND TO DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING BUT MAY LINGER A WHILE AFTER
SUNSET... ESPECIALLY AROUND RDG/ABE/TTN. A WEAK SFC TROF OVER THE
AREA IS RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT BUT WITH A PREVAILING NW
DIRECTION GRADUALLY DEVELOPING.

FOR MONDAY...A STRONGER SFC PRES GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WITH WILL RESULT IN STRONGER NW WINDS. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT
ARE LIKELY DURG THE AFTN. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL DEVELOP BUT
AGAIN THE CLOUD BASES SHOULD BE 5K FT OR HIGHER. SOME CLOUDS WILL
BUILD UP HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS BUT MUCH OF THE RAIN IS
LIKELY TO EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND...THUS LITTLE IF
ANY LIMITS TO VSBY ARE EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. AN EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS IS EXPECTED
ALONG WITH ITS POTENTIAL IMPACT ON OPERATIONS AT KPHL.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE CURRENTLY RATHER QUIET OVER THE FCST WATERS
AND SHOULD REMAIN SO FOR TONIGHT AND MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW.
HWVR...FOR MONDAY AFTN WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW AND SEAS
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD. CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA DURING THE DAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE INTO
MONDAY EVENING WHEN A SCA WILL GO INTO EFFECT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR A NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND GUSTING TO 25 OR 30 KNOTS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...NO MARINE HEADLINES
ARE ANTICIPATED.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND FOR WAVES ON OUR OCEAN
WATERS IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET. THE WIND DIRECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO
BACK GRADUALLY FROM THE EAST TO THE NORTH. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS IF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OCEAN TRACKS CLOSER
TO THE COAST THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY MORNING WITH
GUSTS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED TO DROP AROUND
30 PERCENT IN MUCH OF OUR REGION ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PRESENTLY,
IT DOES NOT APPEAR AS THOUGH BOTH ELEMENTS WILL COME TOGETHER TO
CREATE AN ENHANCED CONCERN FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD. HOWEVER,
CONDITIONS MAY GET CLOSE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...AMC
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...AMC/IOVINO
MARINE...AMC/IOVINO
FIRE WEATHER...IOVINO



000
FXUS61 KPHI 261936
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
336 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AND COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OUT TO SEA DURING THE EARLY
AND MIDDLE PARTS OF THE NEW WEEK. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO OUR REGION GRADUALLY FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEST.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST ON THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING OUT TO SEA. HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY
BEFORE PASSING OFF THE COAST DURING THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRES SHOULD CONT TO BUILD SWD INTO THE N-CNTRL
US AND SLIGHTLY EWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. MEANWHILE LOW
PRES IS FCST TO RETRO-GRADE SWWD OVER NOVA SCOTIA IN ASSOCN WITH
AN UPPER TROF SWINGING SWD FROM SERN CANADA INTO THE NERN US. THE
RESULT WILL BE AN INCRG E-W PRES GRADIENT OVER OUR AREA WHICH
SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN A LIGHT N-NNW FLOW OVERNIGHT SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR BUT SOME CLOUDINESS IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROF. OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT...BUT SOME MID-30S ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME BETTER- RADIATING
AREAS. WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF PATCHY FROST BUT EXTENT DOES NOT
SEEM WIDE ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY ANOTHER ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
FOR MONDAY THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH HIGH
PRES OVER THE MID-WEST AND LOW PRES WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WITH A
CENTER NEAR NOVA SCOTIA. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE BUT SHOULD BE
SMWHAT STRONGER THAN TODAY WITH A STRONGER GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
HIGH AND LOW. MAX TEMPS MONDAY AFTN COULD BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN
TODAY DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDINESS...ESPECIALLY FROM PHL NORTH.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTN...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL HGT/THERMAL TROF ROTATES SWD ACROSS THE
AREA. COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN INCREASED INSTBY ALONG
WITH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...HOWEVER THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOS WILL
REMAIN RATHER DRY WITH INVERTED VEE TYPE SOUNDING. THUS THE PRECIP
FROM SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL TEND TO EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING
THE GROUND. WE HAVE INCLUDED SLGT CHC POPS FOR MOST OF OUR FCST
AREA WITH SLGTLY HIER CHC POPS WELL N/W OF PHL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WE SHOULD REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID LEVEL LOW OFF NOVA
SCOTIA DURING THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED DURING THE COURSE OF MONDAY NIGHT WITH
CUMULUS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.
A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH IS FORECAST FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH A BIT FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN OUR REGION RELAXES.

A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST AND IT SHOULD BE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THEIR
HANDLING OF THE DEVELOPING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
STATES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ALSO, THERE IS IMPROVING BUT NOT
YET IDEAL CONSENSUS REGARDING THE SURFACE LOW. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION BASED ON ITS BETTER RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY.

THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE OFF CAPE HATTERAS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AND OUT TO SEA. OUR REGION IS
ANTICIPATED TO STAY ON THE NORTHWESTERN FRINGE OF ITS MAIN
IMPACTS. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW REMAINS UNCERTAIN SO WE MAY OR
MAY NOT GET SOME RAIN IN ADDITION TO THE CLOUD COVER, ESPECIALLY
ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. WE HAVE KEPT THE 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THE TIME BEING. AN EAST WIND AROUND 10 MPH ON THURSDAY
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT
BACKS TO THE NORTHEAST, THEN TO THE NORTH.

THE COMPLEX MID LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OVER THE
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC FOR THE WEEKEND. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST AT THAT TIME. THE FEATURE
IS ANTICIPATED TO HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. A
SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE
EASTERN STATES FOR THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF MAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT BE FAR FROM NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL OUR TAF SITES FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. AFTN STRATO-CU HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA BUT BASES ARE HIGH...WELL ABOVE BKN050. THESE CLOUDS WILL
TEND TO DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING BUT MAY LINGER A WHILE AFTER
SUNSET... ESPECIALLY AROUND RDG/ABE/TTN. A WEAK SFC TROF OVER THE
AREA IS RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT BUT WITH A PREVAILING NW
DIRECTION GRADUALLY DEVELOPING.

FOR MONDAY...A STRONGER SFC PRES GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WITH WILL RESULT IN STRONGER NW WINDS. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT
ARE LIKELY DURG THE AFTN. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL DEVELOP BUT
AGAIN THE CLOUD BASES SHOULD BE 5K FT OR HIGHER. SOME CLOUDS WILL
BUILD UP HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS BUT MUCH OF THE RAIN IS
LIKELY TO EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND...THUS LITTLE IF
ANY LIMITS TO VSBY ARE EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. AN EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS IS EXPECTED
ALONG WITH ITS POTENTIAL IMPACT ON OPERATIONS AT KPHL.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE CURRENTLY RATHER QUIET OVER THE FCST WATERS
AND SHOULD REMAIN SO FOR TONIGHT AND MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW.
HWVR...FOR MONDAY AFTN WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW AND SEAS
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD. CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA DURING THE DAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE INTO
MONDAY EVENING WHEN A SCA WILL GO INTO EFFECT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR A NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND GUSTING TO 25 OR 30 KNOTS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...NO MARINE HEADLINES
ARE ANTICIPATED.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND FOR WAVES ON OUR OCEAN
WATERS IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET. THE WIND DIRECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO
BACK GRADUALLY FROM THE EAST TO THE NORTH. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS IF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OCEAN TRACKS CLOSER
TO THE COAST THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY MORNING WITH
GUSTS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED TO DROP AROUND
30 PERCENT IN MUCH OF OUR REGION ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PRESENTLY,
IT DOES NOT APPEAR AS THOUGH BOTH ELEMENTS WILL COME TOGETHER TO
CREATE AN ENHANCED CONCERN FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD. HOWEVER,
CONDITIONS MAY GET CLOSE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...AMC
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...AMC/IOVINO
MARINE...AMC/IOVINO
FIRE WEATHER...IOVINO




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 261848
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
248 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. LIMITED MOISTURE AND LIFT BUT STILL A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. STILL POSSIBLE TO SEE A SNOWFLAKE
OR TWO IN HE RIDGES OR FAR NORTH WITH MODEL CRITICAL THICKNESS
BORDERLINE.

SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTH DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH CONTINUED LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS. CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN A DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE SOUTH TO NORTH WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

TEMPERATURE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD A BLEND OF MOS WHICH IS
NEAR 5 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT. STILL
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AS DOUBT ON HOW MUCH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE. BY THE WEEKEND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS REGION WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE AVERAGE BY
SUNDAY. IN GENERAL CLOSE TO WPC TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCT-BKN VFR CU THIS AFTERNOON WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO
MID DECK AS A SHORTWAVE HEADS SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION. LATER
TONIGHT MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN WITH MVFR CIGS AT NORTHERN PORTS AND
LOWERING VFR CIGS SOUTH. NORTHERLY FLOW AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNCHANGED THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS GENERALLY
NORTH 5 TO 10 KTS.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 261848
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
248 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. LIMITED MOISTURE AND LIFT BUT STILL A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. STILL POSSIBLE TO SEE A SNOWFLAKE
OR TWO IN HE RIDGES OR FAR NORTH WITH MODEL CRITICAL THICKNESS
BORDERLINE.

SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTH DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH CONTINUED LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS. CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN A DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE SOUTH TO NORTH WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

TEMPERATURE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD A BLEND OF MOS WHICH IS
NEAR 5 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT. STILL
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AS DOUBT ON HOW MUCH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE. BY THE WEEKEND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS REGION WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE AVERAGE BY
SUNDAY. IN GENERAL CLOSE TO WPC TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCT-BKN VFR CU THIS AFTERNOON WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO
MID DECK AS A SHORTWAVE HEADS SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION. LATER
TONIGHT MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN WITH MVFR CIGS AT NORTHERN PORTS AND
LOWERING VFR CIGS SOUTH. NORTHERLY FLOW AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNCHANGED THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS GENERALLY
NORTH 5 TO 10 KTS.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 261848
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
248 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. LIMITED MOISTURE AND LIFT BUT STILL A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. STILL POSSIBLE TO SEE A SNOWFLAKE
OR TWO IN HE RIDGES OR FAR NORTH WITH MODEL CRITICAL THICKNESS
BORDERLINE.

SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTH DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH CONTINUED LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS. CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN A DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE SOUTH TO NORTH WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

TEMPERATURE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD A BLEND OF MOS WHICH IS
NEAR 5 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT. STILL
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AS DOUBT ON HOW MUCH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE. BY THE WEEKEND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS REGION WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE AVERAGE BY
SUNDAY. IN GENERAL CLOSE TO WPC TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCT-BKN VFR CU THIS AFTERNOON WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO
MID DECK AS A SHORTWAVE HEADS SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION. LATER
TONIGHT MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN WITH MVFR CIGS AT NORTHERN PORTS AND
LOWERING VFR CIGS SOUTH. NORTHERLY FLOW AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNCHANGED THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS GENERALLY
NORTH 5 TO 10 KTS.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 261848
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
248 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. LIMITED MOISTURE AND LIFT BUT STILL A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. STILL POSSIBLE TO SEE A SNOWFLAKE
OR TWO IN HE RIDGES OR FAR NORTH WITH MODEL CRITICAL THICKNESS
BORDERLINE.

SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTH DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH CONTINUED LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS. CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN A DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE SOUTH TO NORTH WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

TEMPERATURE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD A BLEND OF MOS WHICH IS
NEAR 5 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT. STILL
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AS DOUBT ON HOW MUCH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE. BY THE WEEKEND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS REGION WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE AVERAGE BY
SUNDAY. IN GENERAL CLOSE TO WPC TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCT-BKN VFR CU THIS AFTERNOON WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO
MID DECK AS A SHORTWAVE HEADS SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION. LATER
TONIGHT MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN WITH MVFR CIGS AT NORTHERN PORTS AND
LOWERING VFR CIGS SOUTH. NORTHERLY FLOW AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNCHANGED THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS GENERALLY
NORTH 5 TO 10 KTS.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 261848
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
248 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. LIMITED MOISTURE AND LIFT BUT STILL A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. STILL POSSIBLE TO SEE A SNOWFLAKE
OR TWO IN HE RIDGES OR FAR NORTH WITH MODEL CRITICAL THICKNESS
BORDERLINE.

SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTH DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH CONTINUED LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS. CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN A DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE SOUTH TO NORTH WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

TEMPERATURE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD A BLEND OF MOS WHICH IS
NEAR 5 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT. STILL
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AS DOUBT ON HOW MUCH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE. BY THE WEEKEND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS REGION WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE AVERAGE BY
SUNDAY. IN GENERAL CLOSE TO WPC TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCT-BKN VFR CU THIS AFTERNOON WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO
MID DECK AS A SHORTWAVE HEADS SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION. LATER
TONIGHT MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN WITH MVFR CIGS AT NORTHERN PORTS AND
LOWERING VFR CIGS SOUTH. NORTHERLY FLOW AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNCHANGED THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS GENERALLY
NORTH 5 TO 10 KTS.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KLWX 261838
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
238 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
NC/SC...AND STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE LOW EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS.
THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH TONIGHT
AND MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE. SOME CLOUDS ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF
THIS SYSTEM REMAIN OVER THE SRN COUNTIES OF THE CWA...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE SOUTH. ELSEWHERE...PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH SCATTERED AFTN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGH INITIALLY WILL EXTEND FROM THE GULF OF
MAINE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WHILE
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA. WINDS SHIFT FROM N
TO NW...AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME UPPER 30S IN THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND HIGHLANDS.

MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP TO THE SOUTH...AND PASS
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY. PERIODIC LIGHT
RAIN/SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CWA...AND ANY EARLY
MORNING PRECIPITATION IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY FALL AS SNOW.
TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND
GENERALLY 50S TO THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TAPERS OFF MON EVENING AS UPPER LVL TROUGH PIVOTS OFFSHORE AND THE
SHORTWAVE PUSHES SOUTH. SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN THE WAKE SHOULD LEAD
TO SKIES SCATTERING AND DRY CONDITIONS. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

DRY WX THEN PERSISTS TUES THRU TUES NIGHT AS THE REGION REMAINS
POSITIONED BETWEEN TWO CLOSED LOWS. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL NUDGE IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAY
TUES...BUT WILL QUICKLY RETREAT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF STATES
BEGINS TO ORGANIZE AND PUSH NORTH. OVERSPREADING PCPN WITH THIS LOW
LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH THRU AT LEAST 12Z WED. TEMPS REMAIN JUST BELOW
NORMAL FOR TUES-TUES NIGHT...THOUGH IF THE WINDS HOLD MORE TO A NW
FLOW RATHER THAN SHIFTING TO THE NORTH...COULD SEE TEMPS SLIGHTLY
WARMER WITH DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS.

WED WILL BE A RELATIVELY NICE SPRING DAY...WITH TEMPS NEAR CLIMO.
CLOUDS SHOULD START INCREASING BY LATE WED...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTH...AS LOW PRESSURE ALONG GULF COAST BEGINS TO IMPACT OUR
REGION. CLOUDINESS SHOULD HELP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR WED
NIGHT...KEEPING THEM SLIGHTLY AOA NORMAL.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL
HANDLING OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO OUR SOUTH ON THU. STILL APPEARS
THAT THE BULK OF THE IMPACTS REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH...WITH MAINLY LIGHT
SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE CWA THROUGH THU. HOWEVER...THIS COULD
CHANGE IF TRACK OF LOW SHIFTS CLOSER TO OUR AREA. COULD BE SOME
WRAPAROUND PRECIP LINGERING INTO FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WOULD LIKELY
BE LIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS SAT SLIGHTLY AOA NORMAL (L70S) ACROSS CWA...WITH LOW
HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTH WINDS 5-10KT. LIGHT
N-NW FLOW CONTINUES. WINDS INCREASE MONDAY TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS
20 TO 25 KT.

VFR CONDITIONS MON NIGHT-TUES NIGHT.

VFR COND LIKELY WED...BEFORE A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR IN RAIN SHOWERS THU
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
N-NE WINDS 10KT OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT NW LATE
TONIGHT AND INCREASE TOWARDS MORNING AS THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE WEST.
A SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS MONDAY FOR WINDS 15-20 KT
WITH 25 KT GUSTS.

SCA CONDITIONS ALL WATERS INITIALLY MON EVENING. GUSTS
SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 20 KTS THRU AT LAST TUES MORNING ON CHESAPEAKE
BAY. GUSTS ON THE TIDAL POTOMAC WILL DIMINISH MON NIGHT...WITH SUB-
SCA CONDITIONS BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ALL WATERS TUES AFTN-NIGHT.

NOT EXPECTING MARINE CONCERNS WED AS FLOW REMAINS LIGHT UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. WIND FIELD INCREASES SOME ON THU...BUT OVERALL STRENGTH
WILL DEPEND ON PROXIMITY OF SFC LOW...WHICH IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KCS
NEAR TERM...KCS
SHORT TERM...KCS
LONG TERM...SEARS/MSE
AVIATION...SEARS/KCS/MSE
MARINE...SEARS/KCS/MSE



000
FXUS61 KLWX 261838
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
238 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
NC/SC...AND STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE LOW EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS.
THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH TONIGHT
AND MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE. SOME CLOUDS ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF
THIS SYSTEM REMAIN OVER THE SRN COUNTIES OF THE CWA...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE SOUTH. ELSEWHERE...PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH SCATTERED AFTN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGH INITIALLY WILL EXTEND FROM THE GULF OF
MAINE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WHILE
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA. WINDS SHIFT FROM N
TO NW...AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME UPPER 30S IN THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND HIGHLANDS.

MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP TO THE SOUTH...AND PASS
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY. PERIODIC LIGHT
RAIN/SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CWA...AND ANY EARLY
MORNING PRECIPITATION IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY FALL AS SNOW.
TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND
GENERALLY 50S TO THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TAPERS OFF MON EVENING AS UPPER LVL TROUGH PIVOTS OFFSHORE AND THE
SHORTWAVE PUSHES SOUTH. SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN THE WAKE SHOULD LEAD
TO SKIES SCATTERING AND DRY CONDITIONS. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

DRY WX THEN PERSISTS TUES THRU TUES NIGHT AS THE REGION REMAINS
POSITIONED BETWEEN TWO CLOSED LOWS. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL NUDGE IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAY
TUES...BUT WILL QUICKLY RETREAT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF STATES
BEGINS TO ORGANIZE AND PUSH NORTH. OVERSPREADING PCPN WITH THIS LOW
LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH THRU AT LEAST 12Z WED. TEMPS REMAIN JUST BELOW
NORMAL FOR TUES-TUES NIGHT...THOUGH IF THE WINDS HOLD MORE TO A NW
FLOW RATHER THAN SHIFTING TO THE NORTH...COULD SEE TEMPS SLIGHTLY
WARMER WITH DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS.

WED WILL BE A RELATIVELY NICE SPRING DAY...WITH TEMPS NEAR CLIMO.
CLOUDS SHOULD START INCREASING BY LATE WED...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTH...AS LOW PRESSURE ALONG GULF COAST BEGINS TO IMPACT OUR
REGION. CLOUDINESS SHOULD HELP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR WED
NIGHT...KEEPING THEM SLIGHTLY AOA NORMAL.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL
HANDLING OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO OUR SOUTH ON THU. STILL APPEARS
THAT THE BULK OF THE IMPACTS REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH...WITH MAINLY LIGHT
SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE CWA THROUGH THU. HOWEVER...THIS COULD
CHANGE IF TRACK OF LOW SHIFTS CLOSER TO OUR AREA. COULD BE SOME
WRAPAROUND PRECIP LINGERING INTO FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WOULD LIKELY
BE LIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS SAT SLIGHTLY AOA NORMAL (L70S) ACROSS CWA...WITH LOW
HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTH WINDS 5-10KT. LIGHT
N-NW FLOW CONTINUES. WINDS INCREASE MONDAY TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS
20 TO 25 KT.

VFR CONDITIONS MON NIGHT-TUES NIGHT.

VFR COND LIKELY WED...BEFORE A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR IN RAIN SHOWERS THU
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
N-NE WINDS 10KT OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT NW LATE
TONIGHT AND INCREASE TOWARDS MORNING AS THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE WEST.
A SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS MONDAY FOR WINDS 15-20 KT
WITH 25 KT GUSTS.

SCA CONDITIONS ALL WATERS INITIALLY MON EVENING. GUSTS
SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 20 KTS THRU AT LAST TUES MORNING ON CHESAPEAKE
BAY. GUSTS ON THE TIDAL POTOMAC WILL DIMINISH MON NIGHT...WITH SUB-
SCA CONDITIONS BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ALL WATERS TUES AFTN-NIGHT.

NOT EXPECTING MARINE CONCERNS WED AS FLOW REMAINS LIGHT UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. WIND FIELD INCREASES SOME ON THU...BUT OVERALL STRENGTH
WILL DEPEND ON PROXIMITY OF SFC LOW...WHICH IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KCS
NEAR TERM...KCS
SHORT TERM...KCS
LONG TERM...SEARS/MSE
AVIATION...SEARS/KCS/MSE
MARINE...SEARS/KCS/MSE



000
FXUS61 KLWX 261838
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
238 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
NC/SC...AND STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE LOW EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS.
THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH TONIGHT
AND MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE. SOME CLOUDS ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF
THIS SYSTEM REMAIN OVER THE SRN COUNTIES OF THE CWA...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE SOUTH. ELSEWHERE...PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH SCATTERED AFTN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGH INITIALLY WILL EXTEND FROM THE GULF OF
MAINE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WHILE
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA. WINDS SHIFT FROM N
TO NW...AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME UPPER 30S IN THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND HIGHLANDS.

MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP TO THE SOUTH...AND PASS
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY. PERIODIC LIGHT
RAIN/SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CWA...AND ANY EARLY
MORNING PRECIPITATION IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY FALL AS SNOW.
TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND
GENERALLY 50S TO THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TAPERS OFF MON EVENING AS UPPER LVL TROUGH PIVOTS OFFSHORE AND THE
SHORTWAVE PUSHES SOUTH. SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN THE WAKE SHOULD LEAD
TO SKIES SCATTERING AND DRY CONDITIONS. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

DRY WX THEN PERSISTS TUES THRU TUES NIGHT AS THE REGION REMAINS
POSITIONED BETWEEN TWO CLOSED LOWS. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL NUDGE IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAY
TUES...BUT WILL QUICKLY RETREAT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF STATES
BEGINS TO ORGANIZE AND PUSH NORTH. OVERSPREADING PCPN WITH THIS LOW
LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH THRU AT LEAST 12Z WED. TEMPS REMAIN JUST BELOW
NORMAL FOR TUES-TUES NIGHT...THOUGH IF THE WINDS HOLD MORE TO A NW
FLOW RATHER THAN SHIFTING TO THE NORTH...COULD SEE TEMPS SLIGHTLY
WARMER WITH DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS.

WED WILL BE A RELATIVELY NICE SPRING DAY...WITH TEMPS NEAR CLIMO.
CLOUDS SHOULD START INCREASING BY LATE WED...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTH...AS LOW PRESSURE ALONG GULF COAST BEGINS TO IMPACT OUR
REGION. CLOUDINESS SHOULD HELP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR WED
NIGHT...KEEPING THEM SLIGHTLY AOA NORMAL.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL
HANDLING OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO OUR SOUTH ON THU. STILL APPEARS
THAT THE BULK OF THE IMPACTS REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH...WITH MAINLY LIGHT
SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE CWA THROUGH THU. HOWEVER...THIS COULD
CHANGE IF TRACK OF LOW SHIFTS CLOSER TO OUR AREA. COULD BE SOME
WRAPAROUND PRECIP LINGERING INTO FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WOULD LIKELY
BE LIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS SAT SLIGHTLY AOA NORMAL (L70S) ACROSS CWA...WITH LOW
HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTH WINDS 5-10KT. LIGHT
N-NW FLOW CONTINUES. WINDS INCREASE MONDAY TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS
20 TO 25 KT.

VFR CONDITIONS MON NIGHT-TUES NIGHT.

VFR COND LIKELY WED...BEFORE A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR IN RAIN SHOWERS THU
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
N-NE WINDS 10KT OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT NW LATE
TONIGHT AND INCREASE TOWARDS MORNING AS THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE WEST.
A SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS MONDAY FOR WINDS 15-20 KT
WITH 25 KT GUSTS.

SCA CONDITIONS ALL WATERS INITIALLY MON EVENING. GUSTS
SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 20 KTS THRU AT LAST TUES MORNING ON CHESAPEAKE
BAY. GUSTS ON THE TIDAL POTOMAC WILL DIMINISH MON NIGHT...WITH SUB-
SCA CONDITIONS BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ALL WATERS TUES AFTN-NIGHT.

NOT EXPECTING MARINE CONCERNS WED AS FLOW REMAINS LIGHT UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. WIND FIELD INCREASES SOME ON THU...BUT OVERALL STRENGTH
WILL DEPEND ON PROXIMITY OF SFC LOW...WHICH IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KCS
NEAR TERM...KCS
SHORT TERM...KCS
LONG TERM...SEARS/MSE
AVIATION...SEARS/KCS/MSE
MARINE...SEARS/KCS/MSE




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 261820
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
220 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC LOW PRESSURE NOW WELL OFF THE NC
COAST. WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER ONTARIO/MANITOBA
CANADA...WEAK SFC RIDGING DOES EXTEND INTO THE NRN MID ATLC
REGION. RADAR REVEALING JUST SOME SPOTTY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ACRS
SRN VA/NE NC. SKIES HAVE ACTUALLY CLEARED ACRS THE MD ERN
SHORE...AND A FEW BREAKS ARE PUSHING INTO PORTIONS OF ERN VA AS
WELL. STILL AMPLE MOISTURE FROM ABOUT 850-750 MB PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS AND WITH A SFC TO 850 MB MEAN FLOW FROM THE NNE...ANTICIPATE
SKIES REMAINING CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTN FOR
MOST OF THE CWA DESPITE MINIMAL CHANCES FOR ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN.
DID GO A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC/PARTLY SUNNY FOR SKY COVER FOR NE
ZONES/THE ERN SHORE/NRN NECK...GRADUALLY SPREADING SOUTH BY LATE
AFTN. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS IN FAR SRN VA/NE NC THROUGH 18Z.
HIGHS TODAY RANGE FROM AROUND 60 F ACRS THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE
MID/UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE...WELL BELOW AVG BUT NOT AS COOL AS
YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANY SLIGHT CHC FOR LEFTOVER RAIN TO END ACRS NE NC EARLY THIS
EVE. VARIABLY CLOUDY/PARTLY CLOUDY TNGT OVR THE FA...POTENTIAL FOR
FOG DEPENDING ON AMT AND TIMING OF CLEARING...WILL ADDRESS THIS
WITH AFTN FORECAST PACKAGE. BROAD UPR LVL LO PRES EXTENDING FM
CANADIAN MARITIMES TO SE LAKES WILL RMN IN PLACE THROUGH MON. S/W
DIVING SE THROUGH THE MDATLC STATES ON MON BRINGS VRB CLDS AND LO
POPS - ESP N AND E LOCATIONS (ALG W/ CONTD COOL CONDS). LO TEMPS
SUN NGT IN THE L/M40S. HI TEMPS MON IN THE L60S NE TO THE M60S
ELSW. BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR MON NIGHT...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER ON TUE
W/ INCREASED AMTS OF SUNSHINE...HIGHS MNLY INTO THE M/U60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ALLOWING FOR DRY WX THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THEN...A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST (WEIGHTED TOWARD THE ECMWF) BRINGS LOW PRESSURE
UP THE SE COAST LATE WED/WED NIGHT...THEN DEEPENS THE LOW OFF THE
OBX ON THURSDAY BEFORE QUICKLY SHOVING IT WELL OUT TO SEA THURSDAY
NIGHT. BASED ON THIS SOLUTION...WILL BRING SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%)
INTO SOUTHERN AREAS WED...THEN SLIGHT CHC POPS NORTH AND CHC POPS
(30-40%) ACROSS THE SOUTH WED NIGHT. WILL EXPAND CHC POPS (30-50%)
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA ON THURSDAY (HIGHEST FAR SE)...BEFORE DWINDLING
RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.
DRY WX THEN RETURNS FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S WED/THU...EXCEPT UPR 50S IMMEDIATE COAST EASTERN SHORE. HIGHS
THEN WARM INTO THE MID/UPR 60S AT THE COAST TO MID 70S INLAND BY
NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...THE MAIN CLOUD BAND HAS PUSHED SOUTH INTO SRN VA/NC. BKN
STRATOCU HAS DEVELOPED N OF THE BAND. N WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS ARE
FORECAST WITH HIGHER WINDS AT ECG.

THE SKY SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AROUND SUNSET. WITH WINDS
BECOMING CALM OR LIGHT DURING THE EVENING...CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY
FOG. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS TOWARD SUNRISE WOULD LIMIT
FOG. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUGGEST FOG EXCEPT AT ECG. CONFIDENCE
WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION WITH THE 18Z ISSUANCE.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY. THERE IS A SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS AT
SBY MONDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW INTENSIFIES OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AND MAY PRODUCE PCPN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS. IFR CONDS
ARE PSBL. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
1 PM UPDATE...SCA NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR THE BAY OR CURRITUCK
SOUND...CONTINUES MAINLY FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS S OF CAPE
CHARLES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ONE LO PRES AREA WAS OFF THE NC CST EARLY THIS MORNG...WHILE
ANOTHER LO WAS MOVNG INTO WNW NC. NNE WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WILL OCCUR
OVR MOST OF THE WTRS DURING TODAY...AS THE SECOND LO DROPS SSE
INTO SC WHILE THE INITIAL LO MOVES FARTHER OFF THE MID ATLC CST.
MAINTAINED SCA`S OVR THE SRN TWO CHES BAY ZNS...THE CURRITUCK
SND...AND THE SRN TWO CSTL ZNS UNTIL EARLY THIS AFTN...THRU THIS
EVENG...OR THRU LATE TNGT. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS. WINDS/SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SCA LEVELS TNGT...BEFORE
POSSIBLY RAMPING BACK UP AGAIN MON INTO TUE AFTN...DUE TO LO PRES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...TMG/LSA




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 261820
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
220 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC LOW PRESSURE NOW WELL OFF THE NC
COAST. WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER ONTARIO/MANITOBA
CANADA...WEAK SFC RIDGING DOES EXTEND INTO THE NRN MID ATLC
REGION. RADAR REVEALING JUST SOME SPOTTY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ACRS
SRN VA/NE NC. SKIES HAVE ACTUALLY CLEARED ACRS THE MD ERN
SHORE...AND A FEW BREAKS ARE PUSHING INTO PORTIONS OF ERN VA AS
WELL. STILL AMPLE MOISTURE FROM ABOUT 850-750 MB PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS AND WITH A SFC TO 850 MB MEAN FLOW FROM THE NNE...ANTICIPATE
SKIES REMAINING CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTN FOR
MOST OF THE CWA DESPITE MINIMAL CHANCES FOR ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN.
DID GO A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC/PARTLY SUNNY FOR SKY COVER FOR NE
ZONES/THE ERN SHORE/NRN NECK...GRADUALLY SPREADING SOUTH BY LATE
AFTN. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS IN FAR SRN VA/NE NC THROUGH 18Z.
HIGHS TODAY RANGE FROM AROUND 60 F ACRS THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE
MID/UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE...WELL BELOW AVG BUT NOT AS COOL AS
YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANY SLIGHT CHC FOR LEFTOVER RAIN TO END ACRS NE NC EARLY THIS
EVE. VARIABLY CLOUDY/PARTLY CLOUDY TNGT OVR THE FA...POTENTIAL FOR
FOG DEPENDING ON AMT AND TIMING OF CLEARING...WILL ADDRESS THIS
WITH AFTN FORECAST PACKAGE. BROAD UPR LVL LO PRES EXTENDING FM
CANADIAN MARITIMES TO SE LAKES WILL RMN IN PLACE THROUGH MON. S/W
DIVING SE THROUGH THE MDATLC STATES ON MON BRINGS VRB CLDS AND LO
POPS - ESP N AND E LOCATIONS (ALG W/ CONTD COOL CONDS). LO TEMPS
SUN NGT IN THE L/M40S. HI TEMPS MON IN THE L60S NE TO THE M60S
ELSW. BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR MON NIGHT...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER ON TUE
W/ INCREASED AMTS OF SUNSHINE...HIGHS MNLY INTO THE M/U60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ALLOWING FOR DRY WX THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THEN...A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST (WEIGHTED TOWARD THE ECMWF) BRINGS LOW PRESSURE
UP THE SE COAST LATE WED/WED NIGHT...THEN DEEPENS THE LOW OFF THE
OBX ON THURSDAY BEFORE QUICKLY SHOVING IT WELL OUT TO SEA THURSDAY
NIGHT. BASED ON THIS SOLUTION...WILL BRING SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%)
INTO SOUTHERN AREAS WED...THEN SLIGHT CHC POPS NORTH AND CHC POPS
(30-40%) ACROSS THE SOUTH WED NIGHT. WILL EXPAND CHC POPS (30-50%)
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA ON THURSDAY (HIGHEST FAR SE)...BEFORE DWINDLING
RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.
DRY WX THEN RETURNS FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S WED/THU...EXCEPT UPR 50S IMMEDIATE COAST EASTERN SHORE. HIGHS
THEN WARM INTO THE MID/UPR 60S AT THE COAST TO MID 70S INLAND BY
NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...THE MAIN CLOUD BAND HAS PUSHED SOUTH INTO SRN VA/NC. BKN
STRATOCU HAS DEVELOPED N OF THE BAND. N WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS ARE
FORECAST WITH HIGHER WINDS AT ECG.

THE SKY SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AROUND SUNSET. WITH WINDS
BECOMING CALM OR LIGHT DURING THE EVENING...CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY
FOG. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS TOWARD SUNRISE WOULD LIMIT
FOG. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUGGEST FOG EXCEPT AT ECG. CONFIDENCE
WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION WITH THE 18Z ISSUANCE.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY. THERE IS A SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS AT
SBY MONDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW INTENSIFIES OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AND MAY PRODUCE PCPN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS. IFR CONDS
ARE PSBL. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
1 PM UPDATE...SCA NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR THE BAY OR CURRITUCK
SOUND...CONTINUES MAINLY FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS S OF CAPE
CHARLES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ONE LO PRES AREA WAS OFF THE NC CST EARLY THIS MORNG...WHILE
ANOTHER LO WAS MOVNG INTO WNW NC. NNE WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WILL OCCUR
OVR MOST OF THE WTRS DURING TODAY...AS THE SECOND LO DROPS SSE
INTO SC WHILE THE INITIAL LO MOVES FARTHER OFF THE MID ATLC CST.
MAINTAINED SCA`S OVR THE SRN TWO CHES BAY ZNS...THE CURRITUCK
SND...AND THE SRN TWO CSTL ZNS UNTIL EARLY THIS AFTN...THRU THIS
EVENG...OR THRU LATE TNGT. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS. WINDS/SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SCA LEVELS TNGT...BEFORE
POSSIBLY RAMPING BACK UP AGAIN MON INTO TUE AFTN...DUE TO LO PRES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...TMG/LSA



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 261657
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1257 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC LOW PRESSURE NOW WELL OFF THE NC
COAST. WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER ONTARIO/MANITOBA
CANADA...WEAK SFC RIDGING DOES EXTEND INTO THE NRN MID ATLC
REGION. RADAR REVEALING JUST SOME SPOTTY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ACRS
SRN VA/NE NC. SKIES HAVE ACTUALLY CLEARED ACRS THE MD ERN
SHORE...AND A FEW BREAKS ARE PUSHING INTO PORTIONS OF ERN VA AS
WELL. STILL AMPLE MOISTURE FROM ABOUT 850-750 MB PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS AND WITH A SFC TO 850 MB MEAN FLOW FROM THE NNE...ANTICIPATE
SKIES REMAINING CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTN FOR
MOST OF THE CWA DESPITE MINIMAL CHANCES FOR ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN.
DID GO A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC/PARTLY SUNNY FOR SKY COVER FOR NE
ZONES/THE ERN SHORE/NRN NECK...GRADUALLY SPREADING SOUTH BY LATE
AFTN. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS IN FAR SRN VA/NE NC THROUGH 18Z.
HIGHS TODAY RANGE FROM AROUND 60 F ACRS THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE
MID/UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE...WELL BELOW AVG BUT NOT AS COOL AS
YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANY SLIGHT CHC FOR LEFTOVER RAIN TO END ACRS NE NC EARLY THIS
EVE. VARIABLY CLOUDY/PARTLY CLOUDY TNGT OVR THE FA...POTENTIAL FOR
FOG DEPENDING ON AMT AND TIMING OF CLEARING...WILL ADDRESS THIS
WITH AFTN FORECAST PACKAGE. BROAD UPR LVL LO PRES EXTENDING FM
CANADIAN MARITIMES TO SE LAKES WILL RMN IN PLACE THROUGH MON. S/W
DIVING SE THROUGH THE MDATLC STATES ON MON BRINGS VRB CLDS AND LO
POPS - ESP N AND E LOCATIONS (ALG W/ CONTD COOL CONDS). LO TEMPS
SUN NGT IN THE L/M40S. HI TEMPS MON IN THE L60S NE TO THE M60S
ELSW. BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR MON NIGHT...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER ON TUE
W/ INCREASED AMTS OF SUNSHINE...HIGHS MNLY INTO THE M/U60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ALLOWING FOR DRY WX THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THEN...A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST (WEIGHTED TOWARD THE ECMWF) BRINGS LOW PRESSURE
UP THE SE COAST LATE WED/WED NIGHT...THEN DEEPENS THE LOW OFF THE
OBX ON THURSDAY BEFORE QUICKLY SHOVING IT WELL OUT TO SEA THURSDAY
NIGHT. BASED ON THIS SOLUTION...WILL BRING SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%)
INTO SOUTHERN AREAS WED...THEN SLIGHT CHC POPS NORTH AND CHC POPS
(30-40%) ACROSS THE SOUTH WED NIGHT. WILL EXPAND CHC POPS (30-50%)
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA ON THURSDAY (HIGHEST FAR SE)...BEFORE DWINDLING
RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.
DRY WX THEN RETURNS FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S WED/THU...EXCEPT UPR 50S IMMEDIATE COAST EASTERN SHORE. HIGHS
THEN WARM INTO THE MID/UPR 60S AT THE COAST TO MID 70S INLAND BY
NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 14Z...RAIN WAS DIMINISHING ACROSS THE TAF SITES AND MOSTLY
MVFR CIGS REMAIN. SOME UPSTREAM LOCATIONS HAVE IFR CIGS AND WILL
KEEP IFR IN MOST OF THE TAFS INTO MIDDAY. WINDS AT ORF WERE BRINGING
MILDER SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT WHICH WAS
KEEPING RH LOWER. REMOVED IFR OUT OF THE TAF THERE.

OUTLOOK...DRY WX AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MON INTO WED
MORN...AS HI PRES BUILDS IN FM THE NW. THERE IS A CHC FOR RAIN LATE
IN THE WEEK AS UPPER LOW PULLS OUT OF THE SW STATES.

&&

.MARINE...
1 PM UPDATE...SCA NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR THE BAY OR CURRITUCK
SOUND...CONTINUES MAINLY FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS S OF CAPE
CHARLES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ONE LO PRES AREA WAS OFF THE NC CST EARLY THIS MORNG...WHILE
ANOTHER LO WAS MOVNG INTO WNW NC. NNE WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WILL OCCUR
OVR MOST OF THE WTRS DURING TODAY...AS THE SECOND LO DROPS SSE
INTO SC WHILE THE INITIAL LO MOVES FARTHER OFF THE MID ATLC CST.
MAINTAINED SCA`S OVR THE SRN TWO CHES BAY ZNS...THE CURRITUCK
SND...AND THE SRN TWO CSTL ZNS UNTIL EARLY THIS AFTN...THRU THIS
EVENG...OR THRU LATE TNGT. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS. WINDS/SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SCA LEVELS TNGT...BEFORE
POSSIBLY RAMPING BACK UP AGAIN MON INTO TUE AFTN...DUE TO LO PRES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG/LSA
MARINE...TMG/LSA




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 261657
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1257 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC LOW PRESSURE NOW WELL OFF THE NC
COAST. WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER ONTARIO/MANITOBA
CANADA...WEAK SFC RIDGING DOES EXTEND INTO THE NRN MID ATLC
REGION. RADAR REVEALING JUST SOME SPOTTY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ACRS
SRN VA/NE NC. SKIES HAVE ACTUALLY CLEARED ACRS THE MD ERN
SHORE...AND A FEW BREAKS ARE PUSHING INTO PORTIONS OF ERN VA AS
WELL. STILL AMPLE MOISTURE FROM ABOUT 850-750 MB PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS AND WITH A SFC TO 850 MB MEAN FLOW FROM THE NNE...ANTICIPATE
SKIES REMAINING CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTN FOR
MOST OF THE CWA DESPITE MINIMAL CHANCES FOR ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN.
DID GO A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC/PARTLY SUNNY FOR SKY COVER FOR NE
ZONES/THE ERN SHORE/NRN NECK...GRADUALLY SPREADING SOUTH BY LATE
AFTN. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS IN FAR SRN VA/NE NC THROUGH 18Z.
HIGHS TODAY RANGE FROM AROUND 60 F ACRS THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE
MID/UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE...WELL BELOW AVG BUT NOT AS COOL AS
YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANY SLIGHT CHC FOR LEFTOVER RAIN TO END ACRS NE NC EARLY THIS
EVE. VARIABLY CLOUDY/PARTLY CLOUDY TNGT OVR THE FA...POTENTIAL FOR
FOG DEPENDING ON AMT AND TIMING OF CLEARING...WILL ADDRESS THIS
WITH AFTN FORECAST PACKAGE. BROAD UPR LVL LO PRES EXTENDING FM
CANADIAN MARITIMES TO SE LAKES WILL RMN IN PLACE THROUGH MON. S/W
DIVING SE THROUGH THE MDATLC STATES ON MON BRINGS VRB CLDS AND LO
POPS - ESP N AND E LOCATIONS (ALG W/ CONTD COOL CONDS). LO TEMPS
SUN NGT IN THE L/M40S. HI TEMPS MON IN THE L60S NE TO THE M60S
ELSW. BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR MON NIGHT...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER ON TUE
W/ INCREASED AMTS OF SUNSHINE...HIGHS MNLY INTO THE M/U60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ALLOWING FOR DRY WX THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THEN...A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST (WEIGHTED TOWARD THE ECMWF) BRINGS LOW PRESSURE
UP THE SE COAST LATE WED/WED NIGHT...THEN DEEPENS THE LOW OFF THE
OBX ON THURSDAY BEFORE QUICKLY SHOVING IT WELL OUT TO SEA THURSDAY
NIGHT. BASED ON THIS SOLUTION...WILL BRING SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%)
INTO SOUTHERN AREAS WED...THEN SLIGHT CHC POPS NORTH AND CHC POPS
(30-40%) ACROSS THE SOUTH WED NIGHT. WILL EXPAND CHC POPS (30-50%)
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA ON THURSDAY (HIGHEST FAR SE)...BEFORE DWINDLING
RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.
DRY WX THEN RETURNS FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S WED/THU...EXCEPT UPR 50S IMMEDIATE COAST EASTERN SHORE. HIGHS
THEN WARM INTO THE MID/UPR 60S AT THE COAST TO MID 70S INLAND BY
NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 14Z...RAIN WAS DIMINISHING ACROSS THE TAF SITES AND MOSTLY
MVFR CIGS REMAIN. SOME UPSTREAM LOCATIONS HAVE IFR CIGS AND WILL
KEEP IFR IN MOST OF THE TAFS INTO MIDDAY. WINDS AT ORF WERE BRINGING
MILDER SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT WHICH WAS
KEEPING RH LOWER. REMOVED IFR OUT OF THE TAF THERE.

OUTLOOK...DRY WX AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MON INTO WED
MORN...AS HI PRES BUILDS IN FM THE NW. THERE IS A CHC FOR RAIN LATE
IN THE WEEK AS UPPER LOW PULLS OUT OF THE SW STATES.

&&

.MARINE...
1 PM UPDATE...SCA NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR THE BAY OR CURRITUCK
SOUND...CONTINUES MAINLY FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS S OF CAPE
CHARLES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ONE LO PRES AREA WAS OFF THE NC CST EARLY THIS MORNG...WHILE
ANOTHER LO WAS MOVNG INTO WNW NC. NNE WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WILL OCCUR
OVR MOST OF THE WTRS DURING TODAY...AS THE SECOND LO DROPS SSE
INTO SC WHILE THE INITIAL LO MOVES FARTHER OFF THE MID ATLC CST.
MAINTAINED SCA`S OVR THE SRN TWO CHES BAY ZNS...THE CURRITUCK
SND...AND THE SRN TWO CSTL ZNS UNTIL EARLY THIS AFTN...THRU THIS
EVENG...OR THRU LATE TNGT. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS. WINDS/SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SCA LEVELS TNGT...BEFORE
POSSIBLY RAMPING BACK UP AGAIN MON INTO TUE AFTN...DUE TO LO PRES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG/LSA
MARINE...TMG/LSA



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 261533
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1133 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC LOW PRESSURE NOW WELL OFF THE NC
COAST. WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER ONTARIO/MANITOBA
CANADA...WEAK SFC RIDGING DOES EXTEND INTO THE NRN MID ATLC
REGION. RADAR REVEALING JUST SOME SPOTTY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ACRS
SRN VA/NE NC. SKIES HAVE ACTUALLY CLEARED ACRS THE MD ERN
SHORE...AND A FEW BREAKS ARE PUSHING INTO PORTIONS OF ERN VA AS
WELL. STILL AMPLE MOISTURE FROM ABOUT 850-750 MB PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS AND WITH A SFC TO 850 MB MEAN FLOW FROM THE NNE...ANTICIPATE
SKIES REMAINING CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTN FOR
MOST OF THE CWA DESPITE MINIMAL CHANCES FOR ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN.
DID GO A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC/PARTLY SUNNY FOR SKY COVER FOR NE
ZONES/THE ERN SHORE/NRN NECK...GRADUALLY SPREADING SOUTH BY LATE
AFTN. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS IN FAR SRN VA/NE NC THROUGH 18Z.
HIGHS TODAY RANGE FROM AROUND 60 F ACRS THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE
MID/UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE...WELL BELOW AVG BUT NOT AS COOL AS
YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANY SLIGHT CHC FOR LEFTOVER RAIN TO END ACRS NE NC EARLY THIS
EVE. VARIABLY CLOUDY/PARTLY CLOUDY TNGT OVR THE FA...POTENTIAL FOR
FOG DEPENDING ON AMT AND TIMING OF CLEARING...WILL ADDRESS THIS
WITH AFTN FORECAST PACKAGE. BROAD UPR LVL LO PRES EXTENDING FM
CANADIAN MARITIMES TO SE LAKES WILL RMN IN PLACE THROUGH MON. S/W
DIVING SE THROUGH THE MDATLC STATES ON MON BRINGS VRB CLDS AND LO
POPS - ESP N AND E LOCATIONS (ALG W/ CONTD COOL CONDS). LO TEMPS
SUN NGT IN THE L/M40S. HI TEMPS MON IN THE L60S NE TO THE M60S
ELSW. BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR MON NIGHT...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER ON TUE
W/ INCREASED AMTS OF SUNSHINE...HIGHS MNLY INTO THE M/U60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ALLOWING FOR DRY WX THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THEN...A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST (WEIGHTED TOWARD THE ECMWF) BRINGS LOW PRESSURE
UP THE SE COAST LATE WED/WED NIGHT...THEN DEEPENS THE LOW OFF THE
OBX ON THURSDAY BEFORE QUICKLY SHOVING IT WELL OUT TO SEA THURSDAY
NIGHT. BASED ON THIS SOLUTION...WILL BRING SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%)
INTO SOUTHERN AREAS WED...THEN SLIGHT CHC POPS NORTH AND CHC POPS
(30-40%) ACROSS THE SOUTH WED NIGHT. WILL EXPAND CHC POPS (30-50%)
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA ON THURSDAY (HIGHEST FAR SE)...BEFORE DWINDLING
RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.
DRY WX THEN RETURNS FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S WED/THU...EXCEPT UPR 50S IMMEDIATE COAST EASTERN SHORE. HIGHS
THEN WARM INTO THE MID/UPR 60S AT THE COAST TO MID 70S INLAND BY
NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 14Z...RAIN WAS DIMINISHING ACROSS THE TAF SITES AND MOSTLY
MVFR CIGS REMAIN. SOME UPSTREAM LOCATIONS HAVE IFR CIGS AND WILL
KEEP IFR IN MOST OF THE TAFS INTO MIDDAY. WINDS AT ORF WERE BRINGING
MILDER SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT WHICH WAS
KEEPING RH LOWER. REMOVED IFR OUT OF THE TAF THERE.

OUTLOOK...DRY WX AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MON INTO WED
MORN...AS HI PRES BUILDS IN FM THE NW. THERE IS A CHC FOR RAIN LATE
IN THE WEEK AS UPPER LOW PULLS OUT OF THE SW STATES.

&&

.MARINE...
ONE LO PRES AREA WAS OFF THE NC CST EARLY THIS MORNG...WHILE
ANOTHER LO WAS MOVNG INTO WNW NC. NNE WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WILL
OCCUR OVR MOST OF THE WTRS DURING TODAY...AS THE SECOND LO DROPS
SSE INTO SC WHILE THE INITIAL LO MOVES FARTHER OFF THE MID ATLC
CST. MAINTAINED SCA`S OVR THE SRN TWO CHES BAY ZNS...THE CURRITUCK
SND...AND THE SRN TWO CSTL ZNS UNTIL EARLY THIS AFTN...THRU THIS
EVENG...OR THRU LATE TNGT. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS. WINDS/SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SCA LEVELS TNGT...BEFORE
POSSIBLY RAMPING BACK UP AGAIN MON INTO TUE AFTN...DUE TO LO PRES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG/LSA
MARINE...TMG




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 261533
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1133 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC LOW PRESSURE NOW WELL OFF THE NC
COAST. WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER ONTARIO/MANITOBA
CANADA...WEAK SFC RIDGING DOES EXTEND INTO THE NRN MID ATLC
REGION. RADAR REVEALING JUST SOME SPOTTY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ACRS
SRN VA/NE NC. SKIES HAVE ACTUALLY CLEARED ACRS THE MD ERN
SHORE...AND A FEW BREAKS ARE PUSHING INTO PORTIONS OF ERN VA AS
WELL. STILL AMPLE MOISTURE FROM ABOUT 850-750 MB PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS AND WITH A SFC TO 850 MB MEAN FLOW FROM THE NNE...ANTICIPATE
SKIES REMAINING CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTN FOR
MOST OF THE CWA DESPITE MINIMAL CHANCES FOR ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN.
DID GO A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC/PARTLY SUNNY FOR SKY COVER FOR NE
ZONES/THE ERN SHORE/NRN NECK...GRADUALLY SPREADING SOUTH BY LATE
AFTN. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS IN FAR SRN VA/NE NC THROUGH 18Z.
HIGHS TODAY RANGE FROM AROUND 60 F ACRS THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE
MID/UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE...WELL BELOW AVG BUT NOT AS COOL AS
YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANY SLIGHT CHC FOR LEFTOVER RAIN TO END ACRS NE NC EARLY THIS
EVE. VARIABLY CLOUDY/PARTLY CLOUDY TNGT OVR THE FA...POTENTIAL FOR
FOG DEPENDING ON AMT AND TIMING OF CLEARING...WILL ADDRESS THIS
WITH AFTN FORECAST PACKAGE. BROAD UPR LVL LO PRES EXTENDING FM
CANADIAN MARITIMES TO SE LAKES WILL RMN IN PLACE THROUGH MON. S/W
DIVING SE THROUGH THE MDATLC STATES ON MON BRINGS VRB CLDS AND LO
POPS - ESP N AND E LOCATIONS (ALG W/ CONTD COOL CONDS). LO TEMPS
SUN NGT IN THE L/M40S. HI TEMPS MON IN THE L60S NE TO THE M60S
ELSW. BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR MON NIGHT...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER ON TUE
W/ INCREASED AMTS OF SUNSHINE...HIGHS MNLY INTO THE M/U60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ALLOWING FOR DRY WX THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THEN...A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST (WEIGHTED TOWARD THE ECMWF) BRINGS LOW PRESSURE
UP THE SE COAST LATE WED/WED NIGHT...THEN DEEPENS THE LOW OFF THE
OBX ON THURSDAY BEFORE QUICKLY SHOVING IT WELL OUT TO SEA THURSDAY
NIGHT. BASED ON THIS SOLUTION...WILL BRING SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%)
INTO SOUTHERN AREAS WED...THEN SLIGHT CHC POPS NORTH AND CHC POPS
(30-40%) ACROSS THE SOUTH WED NIGHT. WILL EXPAND CHC POPS (30-50%)
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA ON THURSDAY (HIGHEST FAR SE)...BEFORE DWINDLING
RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.
DRY WX THEN RETURNS FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S WED/THU...EXCEPT UPR 50S IMMEDIATE COAST EASTERN SHORE. HIGHS
THEN WARM INTO THE MID/UPR 60S AT THE COAST TO MID 70S INLAND BY
NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 14Z...RAIN WAS DIMINISHING ACROSS THE TAF SITES AND MOSTLY
MVFR CIGS REMAIN. SOME UPSTREAM LOCATIONS HAVE IFR CIGS AND WILL
KEEP IFR IN MOST OF THE TAFS INTO MIDDAY. WINDS AT ORF WERE BRINGING
MILDER SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT WHICH WAS
KEEPING RH LOWER. REMOVED IFR OUT OF THE TAF THERE.

OUTLOOK...DRY WX AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MON INTO WED
MORN...AS HI PRES BUILDS IN FM THE NW. THERE IS A CHC FOR RAIN LATE
IN THE WEEK AS UPPER LOW PULLS OUT OF THE SW STATES.

&&

.MARINE...
ONE LO PRES AREA WAS OFF THE NC CST EARLY THIS MORNG...WHILE
ANOTHER LO WAS MOVNG INTO WNW NC. NNE WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WILL
OCCUR OVR MOST OF THE WTRS DURING TODAY...AS THE SECOND LO DROPS
SSE INTO SC WHILE THE INITIAL LO MOVES FARTHER OFF THE MID ATLC
CST. MAINTAINED SCA`S OVR THE SRN TWO CHES BAY ZNS...THE CURRITUCK
SND...AND THE SRN TWO CSTL ZNS UNTIL EARLY THIS AFTN...THRU THIS
EVENG...OR THRU LATE TNGT. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS. WINDS/SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SCA LEVELS TNGT...BEFORE
POSSIBLY RAMPING BACK UP AGAIN MON INTO TUE AFTN...DUE TO LO PRES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG/LSA
MARINE...TMG




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 261533
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1133 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC LOW PRESSURE NOW WELL OFF THE NC
COAST. WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER ONTARIO/MANITOBA
CANADA...WEAK SFC RIDGING DOES EXTEND INTO THE NRN MID ATLC
REGION. RADAR REVEALING JUST SOME SPOTTY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ACRS
SRN VA/NE NC. SKIES HAVE ACTUALLY CLEARED ACRS THE MD ERN
SHORE...AND A FEW BREAKS ARE PUSHING INTO PORTIONS OF ERN VA AS
WELL. STILL AMPLE MOISTURE FROM ABOUT 850-750 MB PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS AND WITH A SFC TO 850 MB MEAN FLOW FROM THE NNE...ANTICIPATE
SKIES REMAINING CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTN FOR
MOST OF THE CWA DESPITE MINIMAL CHANCES FOR ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN.
DID GO A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC/PARTLY SUNNY FOR SKY COVER FOR NE
ZONES/THE ERN SHORE/NRN NECK...GRADUALLY SPREADING SOUTH BY LATE
AFTN. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS IN FAR SRN VA/NE NC THROUGH 18Z.
HIGHS TODAY RANGE FROM AROUND 60 F ACRS THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE
MID/UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE...WELL BELOW AVG BUT NOT AS COOL AS
YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANY SLIGHT CHC FOR LEFTOVER RAIN TO END ACRS NE NC EARLY THIS
EVE. VARIABLY CLOUDY/PARTLY CLOUDY TNGT OVR THE FA...POTENTIAL FOR
FOG DEPENDING ON AMT AND TIMING OF CLEARING...WILL ADDRESS THIS
WITH AFTN FORECAST PACKAGE. BROAD UPR LVL LO PRES EXTENDING FM
CANADIAN MARITIMES TO SE LAKES WILL RMN IN PLACE THROUGH MON. S/W
DIVING SE THROUGH THE MDATLC STATES ON MON BRINGS VRB CLDS AND LO
POPS - ESP N AND E LOCATIONS (ALG W/ CONTD COOL CONDS). LO TEMPS
SUN NGT IN THE L/M40S. HI TEMPS MON IN THE L60S NE TO THE M60S
ELSW. BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR MON NIGHT...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER ON TUE
W/ INCREASED AMTS OF SUNSHINE...HIGHS MNLY INTO THE M/U60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ALLOWING FOR DRY WX THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THEN...A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST (WEIGHTED TOWARD THE ECMWF) BRINGS LOW PRESSURE
UP THE SE COAST LATE WED/WED NIGHT...THEN DEEPENS THE LOW OFF THE
OBX ON THURSDAY BEFORE QUICKLY SHOVING IT WELL OUT TO SEA THURSDAY
NIGHT. BASED ON THIS SOLUTION...WILL BRING SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%)
INTO SOUTHERN AREAS WED...THEN SLIGHT CHC POPS NORTH AND CHC POPS
(30-40%) ACROSS THE SOUTH WED NIGHT. WILL EXPAND CHC POPS (30-50%)
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA ON THURSDAY (HIGHEST FAR SE)...BEFORE DWINDLING
RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.
DRY WX THEN RETURNS FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S WED/THU...EXCEPT UPR 50S IMMEDIATE COAST EASTERN SHORE. HIGHS
THEN WARM INTO THE MID/UPR 60S AT THE COAST TO MID 70S INLAND BY
NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 14Z...RAIN WAS DIMINISHING ACROSS THE TAF SITES AND MOSTLY
MVFR CIGS REMAIN. SOME UPSTREAM LOCATIONS HAVE IFR CIGS AND WILL
KEEP IFR IN MOST OF THE TAFS INTO MIDDAY. WINDS AT ORF WERE BRINGING
MILDER SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT WHICH WAS
KEEPING RH LOWER. REMOVED IFR OUT OF THE TAF THERE.

OUTLOOK...DRY WX AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MON INTO WED
MORN...AS HI PRES BUILDS IN FM THE NW. THERE IS A CHC FOR RAIN LATE
IN THE WEEK AS UPPER LOW PULLS OUT OF THE SW STATES.

&&

.MARINE...
ONE LO PRES AREA WAS OFF THE NC CST EARLY THIS MORNG...WHILE
ANOTHER LO WAS MOVNG INTO WNW NC. NNE WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WILL
OCCUR OVR MOST OF THE WTRS DURING TODAY...AS THE SECOND LO DROPS
SSE INTO SC WHILE THE INITIAL LO MOVES FARTHER OFF THE MID ATLC
CST. MAINTAINED SCA`S OVR THE SRN TWO CHES BAY ZNS...THE CURRITUCK
SND...AND THE SRN TWO CSTL ZNS UNTIL EARLY THIS AFTN...THRU THIS
EVENG...OR THRU LATE TNGT. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS. WINDS/SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SCA LEVELS TNGT...BEFORE
POSSIBLY RAMPING BACK UP AGAIN MON INTO TUE AFTN...DUE TO LO PRES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG/LSA
MARINE...TMG




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 261533
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1133 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC LOW PRESSURE NOW WELL OFF THE NC
COAST. WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER ONTARIO/MANITOBA
CANADA...WEAK SFC RIDGING DOES EXTEND INTO THE NRN MID ATLC
REGION. RADAR REVEALING JUST SOME SPOTTY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ACRS
SRN VA/NE NC. SKIES HAVE ACTUALLY CLEARED ACRS THE MD ERN
SHORE...AND A FEW BREAKS ARE PUSHING INTO PORTIONS OF ERN VA AS
WELL. STILL AMPLE MOISTURE FROM ABOUT 850-750 MB PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS AND WITH A SFC TO 850 MB MEAN FLOW FROM THE NNE...ANTICIPATE
SKIES REMAINING CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTN FOR
MOST OF THE CWA DESPITE MINIMAL CHANCES FOR ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN.
DID GO A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC/PARTLY SUNNY FOR SKY COVER FOR NE
ZONES/THE ERN SHORE/NRN NECK...GRADUALLY SPREADING SOUTH BY LATE
AFTN. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS IN FAR SRN VA/NE NC THROUGH 18Z.
HIGHS TODAY RANGE FROM AROUND 60 F ACRS THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE
MID/UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE...WELL BELOW AVG BUT NOT AS COOL AS
YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANY SLIGHT CHC FOR LEFTOVER RAIN TO END ACRS NE NC EARLY THIS
EVE. VARIABLY CLOUDY/PARTLY CLOUDY TNGT OVR THE FA...POTENTIAL FOR
FOG DEPENDING ON AMT AND TIMING OF CLEARING...WILL ADDRESS THIS
WITH AFTN FORECAST PACKAGE. BROAD UPR LVL LO PRES EXTENDING FM
CANADIAN MARITIMES TO SE LAKES WILL RMN IN PLACE THROUGH MON. S/W
DIVING SE THROUGH THE MDATLC STATES ON MON BRINGS VRB CLDS AND LO
POPS - ESP N AND E LOCATIONS (ALG W/ CONTD COOL CONDS). LO TEMPS
SUN NGT IN THE L/M40S. HI TEMPS MON IN THE L60S NE TO THE M60S
ELSW. BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR MON NIGHT...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER ON TUE
W/ INCREASED AMTS OF SUNSHINE...HIGHS MNLY INTO THE M/U60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ALLOWING FOR DRY WX THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THEN...A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST (WEIGHTED TOWARD THE ECMWF) BRINGS LOW PRESSURE
UP THE SE COAST LATE WED/WED NIGHT...THEN DEEPENS THE LOW OFF THE
OBX ON THURSDAY BEFORE QUICKLY SHOVING IT WELL OUT TO SEA THURSDAY
NIGHT. BASED ON THIS SOLUTION...WILL BRING SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%)
INTO SOUTHERN AREAS WED...THEN SLIGHT CHC POPS NORTH AND CHC POPS
(30-40%) ACROSS THE SOUTH WED NIGHT. WILL EXPAND CHC POPS (30-50%)
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA ON THURSDAY (HIGHEST FAR SE)...BEFORE DWINDLING
RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.
DRY WX THEN RETURNS FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S WED/THU...EXCEPT UPR 50S IMMEDIATE COAST EASTERN SHORE. HIGHS
THEN WARM INTO THE MID/UPR 60S AT THE COAST TO MID 70S INLAND BY
NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 14Z...RAIN WAS DIMINISHING ACROSS THE TAF SITES AND MOSTLY
MVFR CIGS REMAIN. SOME UPSTREAM LOCATIONS HAVE IFR CIGS AND WILL
KEEP IFR IN MOST OF THE TAFS INTO MIDDAY. WINDS AT ORF WERE BRINGING
MILDER SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT WHICH WAS
KEEPING RH LOWER. REMOVED IFR OUT OF THE TAF THERE.

OUTLOOK...DRY WX AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MON INTO WED
MORN...AS HI PRES BUILDS IN FM THE NW. THERE IS A CHC FOR RAIN LATE
IN THE WEEK AS UPPER LOW PULLS OUT OF THE SW STATES.

&&

.MARINE...
ONE LO PRES AREA WAS OFF THE NC CST EARLY THIS MORNG...WHILE
ANOTHER LO WAS MOVNG INTO WNW NC. NNE WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WILL
OCCUR OVR MOST OF THE WTRS DURING TODAY...AS THE SECOND LO DROPS
SSE INTO SC WHILE THE INITIAL LO MOVES FARTHER OFF THE MID ATLC
CST. MAINTAINED SCA`S OVR THE SRN TWO CHES BAY ZNS...THE CURRITUCK
SND...AND THE SRN TWO CSTL ZNS UNTIL EARLY THIS AFTN...THRU THIS
EVENG...OR THRU LATE TNGT. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS. WINDS/SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SCA LEVELS TNGT...BEFORE
POSSIBLY RAMPING BACK UP AGAIN MON INTO TUE AFTN...DUE TO LO PRES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG/LSA
MARINE...TMG




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 261424
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1024 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC LOW PRESSURE NOW WELL OFF THE NC
COAST...WITH RADAR REVEALING DIMINISHING COVERAGE OF RAIN ACRS THE
REGION. COLDER CLOUD TOPS NOW SLIDING OFF THE COAST AND TRENDS
UPSTREAM SUPPORT LOWERING POPS A BIT FASTER. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY
TO CATEGORICAL/60-90% POPS THROUGH 15Z/11 AM...TAPERING TO ONLY
ISOLATED/SCATTERED COVERAGE THEREAFTER FROM NNW TO SSE (KEEPING
LOW END LIKELY POPS THROUGH 18Z OVER NE NC).

TWD LT AFTN/EVE...PARTIAL CLRG PSBL...ESP ACRS THE NRN HALF OF
THE FA. NE WNDS BECOME N THIS AFTN...GUSTY NR THE CST. TEMPS TO BE
SLO TO RISE THROUGH MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN...REACHING LT DAY HIGHS MNLY
IN THE M/U50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RA TO END ACRS SE VA/NE NC THIS EVE. PARTIAL CLRG XPCD TNGT OVR
THE FA. BROAD UPR LVL LO PRES EXTENDING FM CANADIAN MARITIMES TO
SE LAKES WILL RMN IN PLACE THROUGH MON. S/W DIVING SE THROUGH THE
MDATLC STATES ON MON BRINGS VRB CLDS AND LO POPS - ESP N AND E
LOCATIONS (ALG W/ CONTD COOL CONDS). LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE
L/M40S. HI TEMPS MON IN THE L60S NE TO THE M60S ELSW. BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR MON NIGHT...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER ON TUE W/ INCREASED
AMTS OF SUNSHINE...HIGHS MNLY INTO THE M/U60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ALLOWING FOR DRY WX THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THEN...A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST (WEIGHTED TOWARD THE ECMWF) BRINGS LOW PRESSURE
UP THE SE COAST LATE WED/WED NIGHT...THEN DEEPENS THE LOW OFF THE
OBX ON THURSDAY BEFORE QUICKLY SHOVING IT WELL OUT TO SEA THURSDAY
NIGHT. BASED ON THIS SOLUTION...WILL BRING SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%)
INTO SOUTHERN AREAS WED...THEN SLIGHT CHC POPS NORTH AND CHC POPS
(30-40%) ACROSS THE SOUTH WED NIGHT. WILL EXPAND CHC POPS (30-50%)
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA ON THURSDAY (HIGHEST FAR SE)...BEFORE DWINDLING
RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.
DRY WX THEN RETURNS FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S WED/THU...EXCEPT UPR 50S IMMEDIATE COAST EASTERN SHORE. HIGHS
THEN WARM INTO THE MID/UPR 60S AT THE COAST TO MID 70S INLAND BY
NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 14Z...RAIN WAS DIMINISHING ACROSS THE TAF SITES AND MOSTLY
MVFR CIGS REMAIN. SOME UPSTREAM LOCATIONS HAVE IFR CIGS AND WILL
KEEP IFR IN MOST OF THE TAFS INTO MIDDAY. WINDS AT ORF WERE BRINGING
MILDER SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT WHICH WAS
KEEPING RH LOWER. REMOVED IFR OUT OF THE TAF THERE.

OUTLOOK...DRY WX AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MON INTO WED
MORN...AS HI PRES BUILDS IN FM THE NW. THERE IS A CHC FOR RAIN LATE
IN THE WEEK AS UPPER LOW PULLS OUT OF THE SW STATES.

&&

.MARINE...
ONE LO PRES AREA WAS OFF THE NC CST EARLY THIS MORNG...WHILE
ANOTHER LO WAS MOVNG INTO WNW NC. NNE WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WILL
OCCUR OVR MOST OF THE WTRS DURING TODAY...AS THE SECOND LO DROPS
SSE INTO SC WHILE THE INITIAL LO MOVES FARTHER OFF THE MID ATLC
CST. MAINTAINED SCA`S OVR THE SRN TWO CHES BAY ZNS...THE CURRITUCK
SND...AND THE SRN TWO CSTL ZNS UNTIL EARLY THIS AFTN...THRU THIS
EVENG...OR THRU LATE TNGT. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS. WINDS/SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SCA LEVELS TNGT...BEFORE
POSSIBLY RAMPING BACK UP AGAIN MON INTO TUE AFTN...DUE TO LO PRES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG/LSA
MARINE...TMG



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 261424
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1024 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC LOW PRESSURE NOW WELL OFF THE NC
COAST...WITH RADAR REVEALING DIMINISHING COVERAGE OF RAIN ACRS THE
REGION. COLDER CLOUD TOPS NOW SLIDING OFF THE COAST AND TRENDS
UPSTREAM SUPPORT LOWERING POPS A BIT FASTER. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY
TO CATEGORICAL/60-90% POPS THROUGH 15Z/11 AM...TAPERING TO ONLY
ISOLATED/SCATTERED COVERAGE THEREAFTER FROM NNW TO SSE (KEEPING
LOW END LIKELY POPS THROUGH 18Z OVER NE NC).

TWD LT AFTN/EVE...PARTIAL CLRG PSBL...ESP ACRS THE NRN HALF OF
THE FA. NE WNDS BECOME N THIS AFTN...GUSTY NR THE CST. TEMPS TO BE
SLO TO RISE THROUGH MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN...REACHING LT DAY HIGHS MNLY
IN THE M/U50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RA TO END ACRS SE VA/NE NC THIS EVE. PARTIAL CLRG XPCD TNGT OVR
THE FA. BROAD UPR LVL LO PRES EXTENDING FM CANADIAN MARITIMES TO
SE LAKES WILL RMN IN PLACE THROUGH MON. S/W DIVING SE THROUGH THE
MDATLC STATES ON MON BRINGS VRB CLDS AND LO POPS - ESP N AND E
LOCATIONS (ALG W/ CONTD COOL CONDS). LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE
L/M40S. HI TEMPS MON IN THE L60S NE TO THE M60S ELSW. BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR MON NIGHT...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER ON TUE W/ INCREASED
AMTS OF SUNSHINE...HIGHS MNLY INTO THE M/U60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ALLOWING FOR DRY WX THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THEN...A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST (WEIGHTED TOWARD THE ECMWF) BRINGS LOW PRESSURE
UP THE SE COAST LATE WED/WED NIGHT...THEN DEEPENS THE LOW OFF THE
OBX ON THURSDAY BEFORE QUICKLY SHOVING IT WELL OUT TO SEA THURSDAY
NIGHT. BASED ON THIS SOLUTION...WILL BRING SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%)
INTO SOUTHERN AREAS WED...THEN SLIGHT CHC POPS NORTH AND CHC POPS
(30-40%) ACROSS THE SOUTH WED NIGHT. WILL EXPAND CHC POPS (30-50%)
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA ON THURSDAY (HIGHEST FAR SE)...BEFORE DWINDLING
RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.
DRY WX THEN RETURNS FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S WED/THU...EXCEPT UPR 50S IMMEDIATE COAST EASTERN SHORE. HIGHS
THEN WARM INTO THE MID/UPR 60S AT THE COAST TO MID 70S INLAND BY
NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 14Z...RAIN WAS DIMINISHING ACROSS THE TAF SITES AND MOSTLY
MVFR CIGS REMAIN. SOME UPSTREAM LOCATIONS HAVE IFR CIGS AND WILL
KEEP IFR IN MOST OF THE TAFS INTO MIDDAY. WINDS AT ORF WERE BRINGING
MILDER SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT WHICH WAS
KEEPING RH LOWER. REMOVED IFR OUT OF THE TAF THERE.

OUTLOOK...DRY WX AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MON INTO WED
MORN...AS HI PRES BUILDS IN FM THE NW. THERE IS A CHC FOR RAIN LATE
IN THE WEEK AS UPPER LOW PULLS OUT OF THE SW STATES.

&&

.MARINE...
ONE LO PRES AREA WAS OFF THE NC CST EARLY THIS MORNG...WHILE
ANOTHER LO WAS MOVNG INTO WNW NC. NNE WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WILL
OCCUR OVR MOST OF THE WTRS DURING TODAY...AS THE SECOND LO DROPS
SSE INTO SC WHILE THE INITIAL LO MOVES FARTHER OFF THE MID ATLC
CST. MAINTAINED SCA`S OVR THE SRN TWO CHES BAY ZNS...THE CURRITUCK
SND...AND THE SRN TWO CSTL ZNS UNTIL EARLY THIS AFTN...THRU THIS
EVENG...OR THRU LATE TNGT. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS. WINDS/SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SCA LEVELS TNGT...BEFORE
POSSIBLY RAMPING BACK UP AGAIN MON INTO TUE AFTN...DUE TO LO PRES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG/LSA
MARINE...TMG




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 261424
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1024 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC LOW PRESSURE NOW WELL OFF THE NC
COAST...WITH RADAR REVEALING DIMINISHING COVERAGE OF RAIN ACRS THE
REGION. COLDER CLOUD TOPS NOW SLIDING OFF THE COAST AND TRENDS
UPSTREAM SUPPORT LOWERING POPS A BIT FASTER. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY
TO CATEGORICAL/60-90% POPS THROUGH 15Z/11 AM...TAPERING TO ONLY
ISOLATED/SCATTERED COVERAGE THEREAFTER FROM NNW TO SSE (KEEPING
LOW END LIKELY POPS THROUGH 18Z OVER NE NC).

TWD LT AFTN/EVE...PARTIAL CLRG PSBL...ESP ACRS THE NRN HALF OF
THE FA. NE WNDS BECOME N THIS AFTN...GUSTY NR THE CST. TEMPS TO BE
SLO TO RISE THROUGH MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN...REACHING LT DAY HIGHS MNLY
IN THE M/U50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RA TO END ACRS SE VA/NE NC THIS EVE. PARTIAL CLRG XPCD TNGT OVR
THE FA. BROAD UPR LVL LO PRES EXTENDING FM CANADIAN MARITIMES TO
SE LAKES WILL RMN IN PLACE THROUGH MON. S/W DIVING SE THROUGH THE
MDATLC STATES ON MON BRINGS VRB CLDS AND LO POPS - ESP N AND E
LOCATIONS (ALG W/ CONTD COOL CONDS). LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE
L/M40S. HI TEMPS MON IN THE L60S NE TO THE M60S ELSW. BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR MON NIGHT...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER ON TUE W/ INCREASED
AMTS OF SUNSHINE...HIGHS MNLY INTO THE M/U60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ALLOWING FOR DRY WX THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THEN...A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST (WEIGHTED TOWARD THE ECMWF) BRINGS LOW PRESSURE
UP THE SE COAST LATE WED/WED NIGHT...THEN DEEPENS THE LOW OFF THE
OBX ON THURSDAY BEFORE QUICKLY SHOVING IT WELL OUT TO SEA THURSDAY
NIGHT. BASED ON THIS SOLUTION...WILL BRING SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%)
INTO SOUTHERN AREAS WED...THEN SLIGHT CHC POPS NORTH AND CHC POPS
(30-40%) ACROSS THE SOUTH WED NIGHT. WILL EXPAND CHC POPS (30-50%)
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA ON THURSDAY (HIGHEST FAR SE)...BEFORE DWINDLING
RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.
DRY WX THEN RETURNS FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S WED/THU...EXCEPT UPR 50S IMMEDIATE COAST EASTERN SHORE. HIGHS
THEN WARM INTO THE MID/UPR 60S AT THE COAST TO MID 70S INLAND BY
NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 14Z...RAIN WAS DIMINISHING ACROSS THE TAF SITES AND MOSTLY
MVFR CIGS REMAIN. SOME UPSTREAM LOCATIONS HAVE IFR CIGS AND WILL
KEEP IFR IN MOST OF THE TAFS INTO MIDDAY. WINDS AT ORF WERE BRINGING
MILDER SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT WHICH WAS
KEEPING RH LOWER. REMOVED IFR OUT OF THE TAF THERE.

OUTLOOK...DRY WX AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MON INTO WED
MORN...AS HI PRES BUILDS IN FM THE NW. THERE IS A CHC FOR RAIN LATE
IN THE WEEK AS UPPER LOW PULLS OUT OF THE SW STATES.

&&

.MARINE...
ONE LO PRES AREA WAS OFF THE NC CST EARLY THIS MORNG...WHILE
ANOTHER LO WAS MOVNG INTO WNW NC. NNE WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WILL
OCCUR OVR MOST OF THE WTRS DURING TODAY...AS THE SECOND LO DROPS
SSE INTO SC WHILE THE INITIAL LO MOVES FARTHER OFF THE MID ATLC
CST. MAINTAINED SCA`S OVR THE SRN TWO CHES BAY ZNS...THE CURRITUCK
SND...AND THE SRN TWO CSTL ZNS UNTIL EARLY THIS AFTN...THRU THIS
EVENG...OR THRU LATE TNGT. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS. WINDS/SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SCA LEVELS TNGT...BEFORE
POSSIBLY RAMPING BACK UP AGAIN MON INTO TUE AFTN...DUE TO LO PRES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG/LSA
MARINE...TMG



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 261424
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1024 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC LOW PRESSURE NOW WELL OFF THE NC
COAST...WITH RADAR REVEALING DIMINISHING COVERAGE OF RAIN ACRS THE
REGION. COLDER CLOUD TOPS NOW SLIDING OFF THE COAST AND TRENDS
UPSTREAM SUPPORT LOWERING POPS A BIT FASTER. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY
TO CATEGORICAL/60-90% POPS THROUGH 15Z/11 AM...TAPERING TO ONLY
ISOLATED/SCATTERED COVERAGE THEREAFTER FROM NNW TO SSE (KEEPING
LOW END LIKELY POPS THROUGH 18Z OVER NE NC).

TWD LT AFTN/EVE...PARTIAL CLRG PSBL...ESP ACRS THE NRN HALF OF
THE FA. NE WNDS BECOME N THIS AFTN...GUSTY NR THE CST. TEMPS TO BE
SLO TO RISE THROUGH MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN...REACHING LT DAY HIGHS MNLY
IN THE M/U50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RA TO END ACRS SE VA/NE NC THIS EVE. PARTIAL CLRG XPCD TNGT OVR
THE FA. BROAD UPR LVL LO PRES EXTENDING FM CANADIAN MARITIMES TO
SE LAKES WILL RMN IN PLACE THROUGH MON. S/W DIVING SE THROUGH THE
MDATLC STATES ON MON BRINGS VRB CLDS AND LO POPS - ESP N AND E
LOCATIONS (ALG W/ CONTD COOL CONDS). LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE
L/M40S. HI TEMPS MON IN THE L60S NE TO THE M60S ELSW. BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR MON NIGHT...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER ON TUE W/ INCREASED
AMTS OF SUNSHINE...HIGHS MNLY INTO THE M/U60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ALLOWING FOR DRY WX THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THEN...A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST (WEIGHTED TOWARD THE ECMWF) BRINGS LOW PRESSURE
UP THE SE COAST LATE WED/WED NIGHT...THEN DEEPENS THE LOW OFF THE
OBX ON THURSDAY BEFORE QUICKLY SHOVING IT WELL OUT TO SEA THURSDAY
NIGHT. BASED ON THIS SOLUTION...WILL BRING SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%)
INTO SOUTHERN AREAS WED...THEN SLIGHT CHC POPS NORTH AND CHC POPS
(30-40%) ACROSS THE SOUTH WED NIGHT. WILL EXPAND CHC POPS (30-50%)
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA ON THURSDAY (HIGHEST FAR SE)...BEFORE DWINDLING
RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.
DRY WX THEN RETURNS FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S WED/THU...EXCEPT UPR 50S IMMEDIATE COAST EASTERN SHORE. HIGHS
THEN WARM INTO THE MID/UPR 60S AT THE COAST TO MID 70S INLAND BY
NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 14Z...RAIN WAS DIMINISHING ACROSS THE TAF SITES AND MOSTLY
MVFR CIGS REMAIN. SOME UPSTREAM LOCATIONS HAVE IFR CIGS AND WILL
KEEP IFR IN MOST OF THE TAFS INTO MIDDAY. WINDS AT ORF WERE BRINGING
MILDER SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT WHICH WAS
KEEPING RH LOWER. REMOVED IFR OUT OF THE TAF THERE.

OUTLOOK...DRY WX AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MON INTO WED
MORN...AS HI PRES BUILDS IN FM THE NW. THERE IS A CHC FOR RAIN LATE
IN THE WEEK AS UPPER LOW PULLS OUT OF THE SW STATES.

&&

.MARINE...
ONE LO PRES AREA WAS OFF THE NC CST EARLY THIS MORNG...WHILE
ANOTHER LO WAS MOVNG INTO WNW NC. NNE WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WILL
OCCUR OVR MOST OF THE WTRS DURING TODAY...AS THE SECOND LO DROPS
SSE INTO SC WHILE THE INITIAL LO MOVES FARTHER OFF THE MID ATLC
CST. MAINTAINED SCA`S OVR THE SRN TWO CHES BAY ZNS...THE CURRITUCK
SND...AND THE SRN TWO CSTL ZNS UNTIL EARLY THIS AFTN...THRU THIS
EVENG...OR THRU LATE TNGT. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS. WINDS/SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SCA LEVELS TNGT...BEFORE
POSSIBLY RAMPING BACK UP AGAIN MON INTO TUE AFTN...DUE TO LO PRES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG/LSA
MARINE...TMG




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 261423
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1023 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. A
WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON RESULTING
IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH SUB AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. SKIES HAVE
CLEARED WITH ONLY A FEW CU DEVELOPING LATE AFTERNOON.

AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...SLIGHT
TO CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED. MODEL CRITICAL THICKNESS SHOWS A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY MIX IN RIDGES AND FAR NORTH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTH DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH CONTINUED LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS. CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE.

BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN A DRY...BUT COOL TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
SOUTH TO NORTH WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES.

TEMPERATURE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD WERE FORECAST USING A
BLEND OF NAM AND GFS MOS...WHICH WAS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW THE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEK...SO COOL WEATHER WILL PERSIST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIP...ALBEIT SMALL...IS PROJECTED FOR THURSDAY GIVEN
PROJECTIONS OF A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PHASING INTO THAT TROUGH.
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS WPC GUIDANCE WHICH WAS IN AGREEMENT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERAL VFR FORECAST AS AREA OF MID DECK EXITS SOUTHEAST OF THE
RIDGES. SCT- BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS TAKING PLACE OF THE LOWER CLOUD
DECK. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT SCT- BKN VFR CU TO DEVELOP.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CLOCK AT AROUND 8 T0 10 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 261423
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1023 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. A
WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON RESULTING
IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH SUB AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. SKIES HAVE
CLEARED WITH ONLY A FEW CU DEVELOPING LATE AFTERNOON.

AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...SLIGHT
TO CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED. MODEL CRITICAL THICKNESS SHOWS A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY MIX IN RIDGES AND FAR NORTH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTH DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH CONTINUED LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS. CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE.

BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN A DRY...BUT COOL TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
SOUTH TO NORTH WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES.

TEMPERATURE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD WERE FORECAST USING A
BLEND OF NAM AND GFS MOS...WHICH WAS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW THE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEK...SO COOL WEATHER WILL PERSIST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIP...ALBEIT SMALL...IS PROJECTED FOR THURSDAY GIVEN
PROJECTIONS OF A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PHASING INTO THAT TROUGH.
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS WPC GUIDANCE WHICH WAS IN AGREEMENT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERAL VFR FORECAST AS AREA OF MID DECK EXITS SOUTHEAST OF THE
RIDGES. SCT- BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS TAKING PLACE OF THE LOWER CLOUD
DECK. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT SCT- BKN VFR CU TO DEVELOP.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CLOCK AT AROUND 8 T0 10 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 261423
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1023 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. A
WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON RESULTING
IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH SUB AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. SKIES HAVE
CLEARED WITH ONLY A FEW CU DEVELOPING LATE AFTERNOON.

AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...SLIGHT
TO CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED. MODEL CRITICAL THICKNESS SHOWS A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY MIX IN RIDGES AND FAR NORTH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTH DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH CONTINUED LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS. CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE.

BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN A DRY...BUT COOL TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
SOUTH TO NORTH WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES.

TEMPERATURE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD WERE FORECAST USING A
BLEND OF NAM AND GFS MOS...WHICH WAS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW THE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEK...SO COOL WEATHER WILL PERSIST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIP...ALBEIT SMALL...IS PROJECTED FOR THURSDAY GIVEN
PROJECTIONS OF A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PHASING INTO THAT TROUGH.
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS WPC GUIDANCE WHICH WAS IN AGREEMENT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERAL VFR FORECAST AS AREA OF MID DECK EXITS SOUTHEAST OF THE
RIDGES. SCT- BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS TAKING PLACE OF THE LOWER CLOUD
DECK. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT SCT- BKN VFR CU TO DEVELOP.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CLOCK AT AROUND 8 T0 10 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KLWX 261345
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
945 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE VIRGINIA-NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL SPIN IN THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
WEDNESDAY...REACHING EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS NC...WITH
ANOTHER MORE ORGANIZED LOW OFFSHORE. MOST LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED
INTO THE DELMARVA AND TIDEWATER...WITH A FEW SHOWERS LEFTOVER NEAR
ST. MARY`S COUNTY. FORECAST UPDATED BEFORE 930 TO REFLECT ACTIVITY
LEAVING THE CWA MORE QUICKLY...AND THE 1030 SCHEDULED UPDATE WILL
REFINE THIS FURTHER. WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HIGHLANDS BASED ON 06NAM AND HRRR. SKIES
GRADUALLY CLEAR NORTH TO SOUTH...BUT STRATOCU REDEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON INSTABILITY.

MAX TEMPS GENERALLY HIGHER TO THE NORTH WHERE MORE SUN IS
EXPECTED. LOW 60S NORTH...UPR 50S FOR SWRN ZONES GIVEN MORE CLOUDS
FROM THE DEPARTING FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...NORTH WIND INCREASES 10 TO 15 MPH LATE WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AS THE ZONAL UPR TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.
MIN TEMPS UPR 30S NW OF BALT-WASH CORRIDOR AND WEST OF BLUE
RIDGE...LOW TO MID 40S REST OF THE AREA. DRY.

MONDAY...UPR TROUGH FROM LOW OFF MAINE SLIDES INTO THE AREA.
GENERALLY INSTABILITY WITH ISO/SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE NW. SNOW FLAKES ABOVE ABOUT 2500 FT
ELEVATION. WENT A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND DUE TO
EXPECTED CLOUDS. BREEZY NWLY FLOW 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDS SHOULD BE IMPRVG MON NGT INTO TUE AS INDUCED HIGH PRES MOVES
INTO THE MID ATLC BEHIND THE DEPARTING VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IN
THE GULF OF ME. BRZY CONDS XPCTD MON NGT/TUE. SKIES SHOULD BE ON
THE IMPRV DURG THIS TIME...W/ M SUN XPCTD TUE. LOW PRES TRACKING
ACROSS THE GULF STATES WED MAY SPREAD CLDS INTO THE MID ATLC BUT
POP CHCS WL BE LOW - BEST IN THE CENTRAL SHEN VLLY. ONCE THE LOW
REACHES THE SE CST IT IS XPCTD TO TRACK SLOWLY NE TOWARD HAT THU.
THIS WL BRING ABT A BETTER CHC FOR RA TO THE FCST AREA. QPF WOULD
BE LOW.

THE WK AHD WL SEE HIGH TEMPS AOB THE L70 LATE APR CLIMO NORMS.
LOOKING DEEP INTO THE CRYSTAL BALL IT LOOKS LK WARMING COULD OCCUR
THE FOLLOWING WK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTH WINDS 5-10KT. WINDS
BECOME LGT/VRB TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING NW MONDAY 15 KT GUST 20 TO
25 KT.

HIGH PRES BLDS INTO THE AREA MON NGT THRU WED. NO CONCERNS XPCTD
AVIATION-WISE. LOW PRES TRACKING TO THE S MAY CAUSE DEGRADATION IN
CIGS THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTH FLOW CONTINUES. WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT LATE MORNING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT NW LATE TONIGHT AND
INCREASE...SCA FOR ALL WATERS MONDAY 15-20 KT WITH 25 KT GUSTS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVSRY CONDS LKLY MON NGT AND TUE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...AVIATION AND MARINE UPDATES...KCS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 261345
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
945 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE VIRGINIA-NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL SPIN IN THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
WEDNESDAY...REACHING EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS NC...WITH
ANOTHER MORE ORGANIZED LOW OFFSHORE. MOST LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED
INTO THE DELMARVA AND TIDEWATER...WITH A FEW SHOWERS LEFTOVER NEAR
ST. MARY`S COUNTY. FORECAST UPDATED BEFORE 930 TO REFLECT ACTIVITY
LEAVING THE CWA MORE QUICKLY...AND THE 1030 SCHEDULED UPDATE WILL
REFINE THIS FURTHER. WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HIGHLANDS BASED ON 06NAM AND HRRR. SKIES
GRADUALLY CLEAR NORTH TO SOUTH...BUT STRATOCU REDEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON INSTABILITY.

MAX TEMPS GENERALLY HIGHER TO THE NORTH WHERE MORE SUN IS
EXPECTED. LOW 60S NORTH...UPR 50S FOR SWRN ZONES GIVEN MORE CLOUDS
FROM THE DEPARTING FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...NORTH WIND INCREASES 10 TO 15 MPH LATE WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AS THE ZONAL UPR TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.
MIN TEMPS UPR 30S NW OF BALT-WASH CORRIDOR AND WEST OF BLUE
RIDGE...LOW TO MID 40S REST OF THE AREA. DRY.

MONDAY...UPR TROUGH FROM LOW OFF MAINE SLIDES INTO THE AREA.
GENERALLY INSTABILITY WITH ISO/SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE NW. SNOW FLAKES ABOVE ABOUT 2500 FT
ELEVATION. WENT A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND DUE TO
EXPECTED CLOUDS. BREEZY NWLY FLOW 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDS SHOULD BE IMPRVG MON NGT INTO TUE AS INDUCED HIGH PRES MOVES
INTO THE MID ATLC BEHIND THE DEPARTING VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IN
THE GULF OF ME. BRZY CONDS XPCTD MON NGT/TUE. SKIES SHOULD BE ON
THE IMPRV DURG THIS TIME...W/ M SUN XPCTD TUE. LOW PRES TRACKING
ACROSS THE GULF STATES WED MAY SPREAD CLDS INTO THE MID ATLC BUT
POP CHCS WL BE LOW - BEST IN THE CENTRAL SHEN VLLY. ONCE THE LOW
REACHES THE SE CST IT IS XPCTD TO TRACK SLOWLY NE TOWARD HAT THU.
THIS WL BRING ABT A BETTER CHC FOR RA TO THE FCST AREA. QPF WOULD
BE LOW.

THE WK AHD WL SEE HIGH TEMPS AOB THE L70 LATE APR CLIMO NORMS.
LOOKING DEEP INTO THE CRYSTAL BALL IT LOOKS LK WARMING COULD OCCUR
THE FOLLOWING WK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTH WINDS 5-10KT. WINDS
BECOME LGT/VRB TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING NW MONDAY 15 KT GUST 20 TO
25 KT.

HIGH PRES BLDS INTO THE AREA MON NGT THRU WED. NO CONCERNS XPCTD
AVIATION-WISE. LOW PRES TRACKING TO THE S MAY CAUSE DEGRADATION IN
CIGS THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTH FLOW CONTINUES. WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT LATE MORNING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT NW LATE TONIGHT AND
INCREASE...SCA FOR ALL WATERS MONDAY 15-20 KT WITH 25 KT GUSTS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVSRY CONDS LKLY MON NGT AND TUE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...AVIATION AND MARINE UPDATES...KCS




000
FXUS61 KPHI 261338
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
938 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA
TODAY AND MERGE INTO A LARGE LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA EARLY THIS WEEK. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST TUESDAY
MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST WEDNESDAY THEN
INTENSIFIES NORTHEASTWARD THURSDAY. IT BECOMES A LARGE CIRCULATION
FRIDAY TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND.  WARMER HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS TO
OUR SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR THE 930 AM UPDATE...THE CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS PRETTY MUCH ON
TRACK SO NO BIG CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR
TODAY. OCEAN WATER TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE 40S AND THERE WILL BE
SOMEWHAT OF AN ONSHORE BREEZE TODAY SO MAX TEMPS NEAR THE SHORE
WERE LOWERED A BIT. OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE 5 TO 10
DEG F WARMER THAN YDAY...ESPECIALLY FROM PHL SWD WHERE CLOUDS ARE
CLEARING OUT AND A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTN IS EXPECTED. LIGHT NLY WINDS
WILL PREVAIL IN THE RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRAD BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE
LOW AND HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE MS VLY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE
EAST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. A DRY
DAY IS EXPECTED WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS. THERE WILL STILL
BE SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTH
THIS MORNING AND THEN IT SHOULD BECOME SUNNY THERE LATER. SOME
DAYTIME CU WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BE MOSTLY N OR NE AT 5 TO 10 MPH. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...BUT MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S OR LOW 60S...SO
OVERALL QUITE PLEASANT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN TO THE
WEST WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.
OVERALL...SKY CONDITIONS WILL AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MILDER THAN THIS MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH
AND LOW TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...MOSTLY FROM THE
NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
500 MB: COLDER THAN NORMAL HEIGHTS PREVAIL HERE MOST OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC NEAR NOVA SCOTIA, DOMINATING THE FLOW HERE THROUGH TUESDAY.
THEN A POTENTIALLY COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS MAY YIELD ANOTHER CLOSED LOW NEAR LONG ISLAND BY
FRIDAY. RIDGING FOLLOWS NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
MONDAY, MAYBE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY THEN NEAR NORMAL
WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY, WITH A DEFINITE WARMING TREND TO FOLLOW NEXT
WEEKEND!

THE 12/25 NAEFS SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLE HAS NOTHING EXTREME FOR
OUR FORECAST AREA THE NEXT 6 DAYS.

HAZARDS THIS 6 DAY PERIOD: FIRE WEATHER IS THE MOST LIKELY CONSIDERATION
PRIOR TO NEXT WEEKEND.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/26 GFS/NAM
MOS GUIDANCE MONDAY-TUESDAY, 00Z/26 MEX MOS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY, THEN THE 0521Z/26 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP,
12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT-SKY-WIND FROM THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT
SATURDAY.


THE DAILIES...

MONDAY...BREEZY WITH NORTHWEST GUSTING 20-30 MPH DURING THE DAY,
DIMINISHING AT NIGHT. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS DURING THE DAY WITH
SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS, MAINLY THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY DAY,  PROBABLY CLEARING AT NIGHT.  NNW WIND
GUSTING TO 20 MPH DURING THE DAY, DIMINISHING AT NIGHT. CONFIDENCE:
ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LIGHT WEST WIND.  CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE
EXCEPT BELOW AVERAGE ON THE SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS MENTIONED IN
THE AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH CHANCE OF A SPRINKLE OR
SHOWER AS THE WESTERN LOBE OF THE THE ATLANTIC TROUGH ROTATES SEWD
OVERHEAD AND TRIES TO FORM A CLOSED LOW. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTING TO 20 MPH DURING THE DAY, POSSIBLY HIGHER COAST. CONFIDENCE:
BELOW AVERAGE.

A CAVEAT FOR THURSDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE INTERACTION OF
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES MAY YET RESULT IN A
STRONG RAINY GALE FOR OUR COAST THURSDAY.

FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTING 20 TO 25 MPH.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. NORTHWEST WIND. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE
AVERAGE. 00Z/26 GFS MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED TODAY AT ALL TAF SITES WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
LIGHT NNE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING...SHIFTING TO NNW THIS
AFTERNOON. SOMEWHAT GUSTY NE WINDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT PHL THIS
MORNING...THIS SEEMS TO BE A LOCAL EFFECT AND SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
GOOD FLYING WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN ACROSS OUR AREA. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION BEFORE MOVING EAST. CLOUDS ARE OF THE
MID VARIETY ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ WITH HIGH CLOUDS FATHER
NORTH. WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT NW/W AND THEY WILL TURN NE AFTER
SUNRISE. LATER TODAY...A CONTINUATION OF VFR WITH DAYTIME CU SCT
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS MOSTLY NE 5 TO 10 KNOTS. TONIGHT...VFR
(MOSTLY CLEAR) WITH NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH SCT SHOWERS, MAINLY DAYLIGHT HOURS.
NW WIND GUSTY 20-25 KT DURING THE DAY DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT.  NNW WIND GUSTY 20 KT.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. SMALL CHANCE OF AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER. LIGHT WEST WIND. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...VFR CIGS WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER, MAINLY DAYLIGHT
HOURS. N-NE WIND GUSTY 20 KT. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE. UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS REGARDING THE POTENTIAL OF THE DEVELOPING OCEAN GALE
COMING CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN NOW GENERALLY EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT A BAD DAY TO BE OUT ON THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE GENTLE
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS WILL MOSTLY NE
TODAY AND THEN TURN MORE NWRLY TONIGHT. WINDS SPEEDS MOSTLY UNDER 10
KNOTS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN MOSTLY AROUND 2 FT TODAY AND TONIGHT
AND ON THE BAY 1 TO 2 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS FAR S
BEFORE DAWN TODAY...THEN DRY THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE IT WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE WITH NW WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KT ALONG THE NEAREST MILE OF THE COAST BUT LESS WIND
ONCE AWAY FROM THE DOCK. NO SCA HAZARD YET. CONFIDENCE FOR A
NEARSHORE SCA IS ABOVE AVERAGE BUT NOT YET CATEGORICAL.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. NW
WIND TUESDAY GUST TO 20 KT AND THEN A LIGHT WIND WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY APPEARS LIKELY, ESPECIALLY THE
ATLANTIC WATERS WHERE HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL PROBABLY EXCEED 5 FEET
OFF NJ AND 7 FEET EAST OF DELAWARE. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF
GALE FORCE GUSTS AND 13 FEET SEAS. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SIZE, STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE
NEWD MOVING COASTAL CAROLINA LOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY FUELS AND MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH`S OF 25 TO 35 PCT MAY NECESSITATE
STATEMENTS FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER SOMETIME BETWEEN THIS
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS TODAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE
CLOSE TO THE NEEDED CRITERIA OR JUST BELOW. RH`S ARE MARGINAL.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...AMC/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...AMC/DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 261338
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
938 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA
TODAY AND MERGE INTO A LARGE LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA EARLY THIS WEEK. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST TUESDAY
MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST WEDNESDAY THEN
INTENSIFIES NORTHEASTWARD THURSDAY. IT BECOMES A LARGE CIRCULATION
FRIDAY TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND.  WARMER HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS TO
OUR SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR THE 930 AM UPDATE...THE CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS PRETTY MUCH ON
TRACK SO NO BIG CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR
TODAY. OCEAN WATER TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE 40S AND THERE WILL BE
SOMEWHAT OF AN ONSHORE BREEZE TODAY SO MAX TEMPS NEAR THE SHORE
WERE LOWERED A BIT. OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE 5 TO 10
DEG F WARMER THAN YDAY...ESPECIALLY FROM PHL SWD WHERE CLOUDS ARE
CLEARING OUT AND A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTN IS EXPECTED. LIGHT NLY WINDS
WILL PREVAIL IN THE RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRAD BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE
LOW AND HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE MS VLY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE
EAST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. A DRY
DAY IS EXPECTED WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS. THERE WILL STILL
BE SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTH
THIS MORNING AND THEN IT SHOULD BECOME SUNNY THERE LATER. SOME
DAYTIME CU WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BE MOSTLY N OR NE AT 5 TO 10 MPH. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...BUT MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S OR LOW 60S...SO
OVERALL QUITE PLEASANT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN TO THE
WEST WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.
OVERALL...SKY CONDITIONS WILL AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MILDER THAN THIS MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH
AND LOW TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...MOSTLY FROM THE
NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
500 MB: COLDER THAN NORMAL HEIGHTS PREVAIL HERE MOST OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC NEAR NOVA SCOTIA, DOMINATING THE FLOW HERE THROUGH TUESDAY.
THEN A POTENTIALLY COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS MAY YIELD ANOTHER CLOSED LOW NEAR LONG ISLAND BY
FRIDAY. RIDGING FOLLOWS NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
MONDAY, MAYBE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY THEN NEAR NORMAL
WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY, WITH A DEFINITE WARMING TREND TO FOLLOW NEXT
WEEKEND!

THE 12/25 NAEFS SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLE HAS NOTHING EXTREME FOR
OUR FORECAST AREA THE NEXT 6 DAYS.

HAZARDS THIS 6 DAY PERIOD: FIRE WEATHER IS THE MOST LIKELY CONSIDERATION
PRIOR TO NEXT WEEKEND.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/26 GFS/NAM
MOS GUIDANCE MONDAY-TUESDAY, 00Z/26 MEX MOS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY, THEN THE 0521Z/26 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP,
12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT-SKY-WIND FROM THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT
SATURDAY.


THE DAILIES...

MONDAY...BREEZY WITH NORTHWEST GUSTING 20-30 MPH DURING THE DAY,
DIMINISHING AT NIGHT. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS DURING THE DAY WITH
SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS, MAINLY THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY DAY,  PROBABLY CLEARING AT NIGHT.  NNW WIND
GUSTING TO 20 MPH DURING THE DAY, DIMINISHING AT NIGHT. CONFIDENCE:
ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LIGHT WEST WIND.  CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE
EXCEPT BELOW AVERAGE ON THE SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS MENTIONED IN
THE AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH CHANCE OF A SPRINKLE OR
SHOWER AS THE WESTERN LOBE OF THE THE ATLANTIC TROUGH ROTATES SEWD
OVERHEAD AND TRIES TO FORM A CLOSED LOW. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTING TO 20 MPH DURING THE DAY, POSSIBLY HIGHER COAST. CONFIDENCE:
BELOW AVERAGE.

A CAVEAT FOR THURSDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE INTERACTION OF
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES MAY YET RESULT IN A
STRONG RAINY GALE FOR OUR COAST THURSDAY.

FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTING 20 TO 25 MPH.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. NORTHWEST WIND. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE
AVERAGE. 00Z/26 GFS MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED TODAY AT ALL TAF SITES WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
LIGHT NNE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING...SHIFTING TO NNW THIS
AFTERNOON. SOMEWHAT GUSTY NE WINDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT PHL THIS
MORNING...THIS SEEMS TO BE A LOCAL EFFECT AND SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
GOOD FLYING WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN ACROSS OUR AREA. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION BEFORE MOVING EAST. CLOUDS ARE OF THE
MID VARIETY ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ WITH HIGH CLOUDS FATHER
NORTH. WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT NW/W AND THEY WILL TURN NE AFTER
SUNRISE. LATER TODAY...A CONTINUATION OF VFR WITH DAYTIME CU SCT
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS MOSTLY NE 5 TO 10 KNOTS. TONIGHT...VFR
(MOSTLY CLEAR) WITH NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH SCT SHOWERS, MAINLY DAYLIGHT HOURS.
NW WIND GUSTY 20-25 KT DURING THE DAY DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT.  NNW WIND GUSTY 20 KT.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. SMALL CHANCE OF AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER. LIGHT WEST WIND. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...VFR CIGS WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER, MAINLY DAYLIGHT
HOURS. N-NE WIND GUSTY 20 KT. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE. UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS REGARDING THE POTENTIAL OF THE DEVELOPING OCEAN GALE
COMING CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN NOW GENERALLY EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT A BAD DAY TO BE OUT ON THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE GENTLE
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS WILL MOSTLY NE
TODAY AND THEN TURN MORE NWRLY TONIGHT. WINDS SPEEDS MOSTLY UNDER 10
KNOTS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN MOSTLY AROUND 2 FT TODAY AND TONIGHT
AND ON THE BAY 1 TO 2 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS FAR S
BEFORE DAWN TODAY...THEN DRY THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE IT WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE WITH NW WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KT ALONG THE NEAREST MILE OF THE COAST BUT LESS WIND
ONCE AWAY FROM THE DOCK. NO SCA HAZARD YET. CONFIDENCE FOR A
NEARSHORE SCA IS ABOVE AVERAGE BUT NOT YET CATEGORICAL.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. NW
WIND TUESDAY GUST TO 20 KT AND THEN A LIGHT WIND WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY APPEARS LIKELY, ESPECIALLY THE
ATLANTIC WATERS WHERE HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL PROBABLY EXCEED 5 FEET
OFF NJ AND 7 FEET EAST OF DELAWARE. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF
GALE FORCE GUSTS AND 13 FEET SEAS. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SIZE, STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE
NEWD MOVING COASTAL CAROLINA LOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY FUELS AND MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH`S OF 25 TO 35 PCT MAY NECESSITATE
STATEMENTS FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER SOMETIME BETWEEN THIS
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS TODAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE
CLOSE TO THE NEEDED CRITERIA OR JUST BELOW. RH`S ARE MARGINAL.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...AMC/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...AMC/DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 261258
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
858 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC LOW PRESSURE NOW WELL OFF THE NC
COAST...WITH RADAR REVEALING DIMINISHING COVERAGE OF RAIN ACRS THE
REGION. COLDER CLOUD TOPS NOW SLIDING OFF THE COAST AND TRENDS
UPSTREAM SUPPORT LOWERING POPS A BIT FASTER. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY
TO CATEGORICAL/60-90% POPS THROUGH 15Z/11 AM...TAPERING TO ONLY
ISOLATED/SCATTERED COVERAGE THEREAFTER FROM NNW TO SSE (KEEPING
LOW END LIKELY POPS THROUGH 18Z OVER NE NC).

TWD LT AFTN/EVE...PARTIAL CLRG PSBL...ESP ACRS THE NRN HALF OF
THE FA. NE WNDS BECOME N THIS AFTN...GUSTY NR THE CST. TEMPS TO BE
SLO TO RISE THROUGH MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN...REACHING LT DAY HIGHS MNLY
IN THE M/U50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RA TO END ACRS SE VA/NE NC THIS EVE. PARTIAL CLRG XPCD TNGT OVR
THE FA. BROAD UPR LVL LO PRES EXTENDING FM CANADIAN MARITIMES TO
SE LAKES WILL RMN IN PLACE THROUGH MON. S/W DIVING SE THROUGH THE
MDATLC STATES ON MON BRINGS VRB CLDS AND LO POPS - ESP N AND E
LOCATIONS (ALG W/ CONTD COOL CONDS). LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE
L/M40S. HI TEMPS MON IN THE L60S NE TO THE M60S ELSW. BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR MON NIGHT...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER ON TUE W/ INCREASED
AMTS OF SUNSHINE...HIGHS MNLY INTO THE M/U60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ALLOWING FOR DRY WX THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THEN...A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST (WEIGHTED TOWARD THE ECMWF) BRINGS LOW PRESSURE
UP THE SE COAST LATE WED/WED NIGHT...THEN DEEPENS THE LOW OFF THE
OBX ON THURSDAY BEFORE QUICKLY SHOVING IT WELL OUT TO SEA THURSDAY
NIGHT. BASED ON THIS SOLUTION...WILL BRING SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%)
INTO SOUTHERN AREAS WED...THEN SLIGHT CHC POPS NORTH AND CHC POPS
(30-40%) ACROSS THE SOUTH WED NIGHT. WILL EXPAND CHC POPS (30-50%)
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA ON THURSDAY (HIGHEST FAR SE)...BEFORE DWINDLING
RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.
DRY WX THEN RETURNS FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S WED/THU...EXCEPT UPR 50S IMMEDIATE COAST EASTERN SHORE. HIGHS
THEN WARM INTO THE MID/UPR 60S AT THE COAST TO MID 70S INLAND BY
NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCTD AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WERE MOVNG OFF THE CST EARLY
THIS MORNG...BUT IFR TO MVFR CIGS WERE AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT
SBY. ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE ACRS THE TAF SITES (EXCEPT
MAYBE SBY) FM ARND 08Z-17Z TODAY...AS LO PRES TRACKS FM EXTRM SW
VA SSE INTO SC. SO...WILL MAINTAIN IFR TO LWR MVFR CIGS AT
RIC...SBY...ORF...AND PHF DURING THIS TIME. CONDITIONS WILL THEN
IMPROVE FM N TO S THIS AFTN INTO TNGT...AS LO PRES MOVES FARTHER
AWAY TO THE SSE AND SOME DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FM THE NNW.

OUTLOOK...DRY WX AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MON INTO
WED MORNG...AS HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE NW.

&&

.MARINE...
ONE LO PRES AREA WAS OFF THE NC CST EARLY THIS MORNG...WHILE
ANOTHER LO WAS MOVNG INTO WNW NC. NNE WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WILL
OCCUR OVR MOST OF THE WTRS DURING TODAY...AS THE SECOND LO DROPS
SSE INTO SC WHILE THE INITIAL LO MOVES FARTHER OFF THE MID ATLC
CST. MAINTAINED SCA`S OVR THE SRN TWO CHES BAY ZNS...THE CURRITUCK
SND...AND THE SRN TWO CSTL ZNS UNTIL EARLY THIS AFTN...THRU THIS
EVENG...OR THRU LATE TNGT. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS. WINDS/SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SCA LEVELS TNGT...BEFORE
POSSIBLY RAMPING BACK UP AGAIN MON INTO TUE AFTN...DUE TO LO PRES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 261258
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
858 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC LOW PRESSURE NOW WELL OFF THE NC
COAST...WITH RADAR REVEALING DIMINISHING COVERAGE OF RAIN ACRS THE
REGION. COLDER CLOUD TOPS NOW SLIDING OFF THE COAST AND TRENDS
UPSTREAM SUPPORT LOWERING POPS A BIT FASTER. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY
TO CATEGORICAL/60-90% POPS THROUGH 15Z/11 AM...TAPERING TO ONLY
ISOLATED/SCATTERED COVERAGE THEREAFTER FROM NNW TO SSE (KEEPING
LOW END LIKELY POPS THROUGH 18Z OVER NE NC).

TWD LT AFTN/EVE...PARTIAL CLRG PSBL...ESP ACRS THE NRN HALF OF
THE FA. NE WNDS BECOME N THIS AFTN...GUSTY NR THE CST. TEMPS TO BE
SLO TO RISE THROUGH MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN...REACHING LT DAY HIGHS MNLY
IN THE M/U50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RA TO END ACRS SE VA/NE NC THIS EVE. PARTIAL CLRG XPCD TNGT OVR
THE FA. BROAD UPR LVL LO PRES EXTENDING FM CANADIAN MARITIMES TO
SE LAKES WILL RMN IN PLACE THROUGH MON. S/W DIVING SE THROUGH THE
MDATLC STATES ON MON BRINGS VRB CLDS AND LO POPS - ESP N AND E
LOCATIONS (ALG W/ CONTD COOL CONDS). LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE
L/M40S. HI TEMPS MON IN THE L60S NE TO THE M60S ELSW. BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR MON NIGHT...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER ON TUE W/ INCREASED
AMTS OF SUNSHINE...HIGHS MNLY INTO THE M/U60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ALLOWING FOR DRY WX THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THEN...A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST (WEIGHTED TOWARD THE ECMWF) BRINGS LOW PRESSURE
UP THE SE COAST LATE WED/WED NIGHT...THEN DEEPENS THE LOW OFF THE
OBX ON THURSDAY BEFORE QUICKLY SHOVING IT WELL OUT TO SEA THURSDAY
NIGHT. BASED ON THIS SOLUTION...WILL BRING SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%)
INTO SOUTHERN AREAS WED...THEN SLIGHT CHC POPS NORTH AND CHC POPS
(30-40%) ACROSS THE SOUTH WED NIGHT. WILL EXPAND CHC POPS (30-50%)
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA ON THURSDAY (HIGHEST FAR SE)...BEFORE DWINDLING
RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.
DRY WX THEN RETURNS FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S WED/THU...EXCEPT UPR 50S IMMEDIATE COAST EASTERN SHORE. HIGHS
THEN WARM INTO THE MID/UPR 60S AT THE COAST TO MID 70S INLAND BY
NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCTD AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WERE MOVNG OFF THE CST EARLY
THIS MORNG...BUT IFR TO MVFR CIGS WERE AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT
SBY. ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE ACRS THE TAF SITES (EXCEPT
MAYBE SBY) FM ARND 08Z-17Z TODAY...AS LO PRES TRACKS FM EXTRM SW
VA SSE INTO SC. SO...WILL MAINTAIN IFR TO LWR MVFR CIGS AT
RIC...SBY...ORF...AND PHF DURING THIS TIME. CONDITIONS WILL THEN
IMPROVE FM N TO S THIS AFTN INTO TNGT...AS LO PRES MOVES FARTHER
AWAY TO THE SSE AND SOME DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FM THE NNW.

OUTLOOK...DRY WX AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MON INTO
WED MORNG...AS HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE NW.

&&

.MARINE...
ONE LO PRES AREA WAS OFF THE NC CST EARLY THIS MORNG...WHILE
ANOTHER LO WAS MOVNG INTO WNW NC. NNE WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WILL
OCCUR OVR MOST OF THE WTRS DURING TODAY...AS THE SECOND LO DROPS
SSE INTO SC WHILE THE INITIAL LO MOVES FARTHER OFF THE MID ATLC
CST. MAINTAINED SCA`S OVR THE SRN TWO CHES BAY ZNS...THE CURRITUCK
SND...AND THE SRN TWO CSTL ZNS UNTIL EARLY THIS AFTN...THRU THIS
EVENG...OR THRU LATE TNGT. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS. WINDS/SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SCA LEVELS TNGT...BEFORE
POSSIBLY RAMPING BACK UP AGAIN MON INTO TUE AFTN...DUE TO LO PRES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 261258
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
858 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC LOW PRESSURE NOW WELL OFF THE NC
COAST...WITH RADAR REVEALING DIMINISHING COVERAGE OF RAIN ACRS THE
REGION. COLDER CLOUD TOPS NOW SLIDING OFF THE COAST AND TRENDS
UPSTREAM SUPPORT LOWERING POPS A BIT FASTER. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY
TO CATEGORICAL/60-90% POPS THROUGH 15Z/11 AM...TAPERING TO ONLY
ISOLATED/SCATTERED COVERAGE THEREAFTER FROM NNW TO SSE (KEEPING
LOW END LIKELY POPS THROUGH 18Z OVER NE NC).

TWD LT AFTN/EVE...PARTIAL CLRG PSBL...ESP ACRS THE NRN HALF OF
THE FA. NE WNDS BECOME N THIS AFTN...GUSTY NR THE CST. TEMPS TO BE
SLO TO RISE THROUGH MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN...REACHING LT DAY HIGHS MNLY
IN THE M/U50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RA TO END ACRS SE VA/NE NC THIS EVE. PARTIAL CLRG XPCD TNGT OVR
THE FA. BROAD UPR LVL LO PRES EXTENDING FM CANADIAN MARITIMES TO
SE LAKES WILL RMN IN PLACE THROUGH MON. S/W DIVING SE THROUGH THE
MDATLC STATES ON MON BRINGS VRB CLDS AND LO POPS - ESP N AND E
LOCATIONS (ALG W/ CONTD COOL CONDS). LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE
L/M40S. HI TEMPS MON IN THE L60S NE TO THE M60S ELSW. BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR MON NIGHT...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER ON TUE W/ INCREASED
AMTS OF SUNSHINE...HIGHS MNLY INTO THE M/U60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ALLOWING FOR DRY WX THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THEN...A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST (WEIGHTED TOWARD THE ECMWF) BRINGS LOW PRESSURE
UP THE SE COAST LATE WED/WED NIGHT...THEN DEEPENS THE LOW OFF THE
OBX ON THURSDAY BEFORE QUICKLY SHOVING IT WELL OUT TO SEA THURSDAY
NIGHT. BASED ON THIS SOLUTION...WILL BRING SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%)
INTO SOUTHERN AREAS WED...THEN SLIGHT CHC POPS NORTH AND CHC POPS
(30-40%) ACROSS THE SOUTH WED NIGHT. WILL EXPAND CHC POPS (30-50%)
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA ON THURSDAY (HIGHEST FAR SE)...BEFORE DWINDLING
RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.
DRY WX THEN RETURNS FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S WED/THU...EXCEPT UPR 50S IMMEDIATE COAST EASTERN SHORE. HIGHS
THEN WARM INTO THE MID/UPR 60S AT THE COAST TO MID 70S INLAND BY
NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCTD AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WERE MOVNG OFF THE CST EARLY
THIS MORNG...BUT IFR TO MVFR CIGS WERE AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT
SBY. ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE ACRS THE TAF SITES (EXCEPT
MAYBE SBY) FM ARND 08Z-17Z TODAY...AS LO PRES TRACKS FM EXTRM SW
VA SSE INTO SC. SO...WILL MAINTAIN IFR TO LWR MVFR CIGS AT
RIC...SBY...ORF...AND PHF DURING THIS TIME. CONDITIONS WILL THEN
IMPROVE FM N TO S THIS AFTN INTO TNGT...AS LO PRES MOVES FARTHER
AWAY TO THE SSE AND SOME DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FM THE NNW.

OUTLOOK...DRY WX AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MON INTO
WED MORNG...AS HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE NW.

&&

.MARINE...
ONE LO PRES AREA WAS OFF THE NC CST EARLY THIS MORNG...WHILE
ANOTHER LO WAS MOVNG INTO WNW NC. NNE WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WILL
OCCUR OVR MOST OF THE WTRS DURING TODAY...AS THE SECOND LO DROPS
SSE INTO SC WHILE THE INITIAL LO MOVES FARTHER OFF THE MID ATLC
CST. MAINTAINED SCA`S OVR THE SRN TWO CHES BAY ZNS...THE CURRITUCK
SND...AND THE SRN TWO CSTL ZNS UNTIL EARLY THIS AFTN...THRU THIS
EVENG...OR THRU LATE TNGT. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS. WINDS/SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SCA LEVELS TNGT...BEFORE
POSSIBLY RAMPING BACK UP AGAIN MON INTO TUE AFTN...DUE TO LO PRES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 261258
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
858 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC LOW PRESSURE NOW WELL OFF THE NC
COAST...WITH RADAR REVEALING DIMINISHING COVERAGE OF RAIN ACRS THE
REGION. COLDER CLOUD TOPS NOW SLIDING OFF THE COAST AND TRENDS
UPSTREAM SUPPORT LOWERING POPS A BIT FASTER. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY
TO CATEGORICAL/60-90% POPS THROUGH 15Z/11 AM...TAPERING TO ONLY
ISOLATED/SCATTERED COVERAGE THEREAFTER FROM NNW TO SSE (KEEPING
LOW END LIKELY POPS THROUGH 18Z OVER NE NC).

TWD LT AFTN/EVE...PARTIAL CLRG PSBL...ESP ACRS THE NRN HALF OF
THE FA. NE WNDS BECOME N THIS AFTN...GUSTY NR THE CST. TEMPS TO BE
SLO TO RISE THROUGH MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN...REACHING LT DAY HIGHS MNLY
IN THE M/U50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RA TO END ACRS SE VA/NE NC THIS EVE. PARTIAL CLRG XPCD TNGT OVR
THE FA. BROAD UPR LVL LO PRES EXTENDING FM CANADIAN MARITIMES TO
SE LAKES WILL RMN IN PLACE THROUGH MON. S/W DIVING SE THROUGH THE
MDATLC STATES ON MON BRINGS VRB CLDS AND LO POPS - ESP N AND E
LOCATIONS (ALG W/ CONTD COOL CONDS). LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE
L/M40S. HI TEMPS MON IN THE L60S NE TO THE M60S ELSW. BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR MON NIGHT...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER ON TUE W/ INCREASED
AMTS OF SUNSHINE...HIGHS MNLY INTO THE M/U60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ALLOWING FOR DRY WX THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THEN...A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST (WEIGHTED TOWARD THE ECMWF) BRINGS LOW PRESSURE
UP THE SE COAST LATE WED/WED NIGHT...THEN DEEPENS THE LOW OFF THE
OBX ON THURSDAY BEFORE QUICKLY SHOVING IT WELL OUT TO SEA THURSDAY
NIGHT. BASED ON THIS SOLUTION...WILL BRING SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%)
INTO SOUTHERN AREAS WED...THEN SLIGHT CHC POPS NORTH AND CHC POPS
(30-40%) ACROSS THE SOUTH WED NIGHT. WILL EXPAND CHC POPS (30-50%)
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA ON THURSDAY (HIGHEST FAR SE)...BEFORE DWINDLING
RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.
DRY WX THEN RETURNS FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S WED/THU...EXCEPT UPR 50S IMMEDIATE COAST EASTERN SHORE. HIGHS
THEN WARM INTO THE MID/UPR 60S AT THE COAST TO MID 70S INLAND BY
NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCTD AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WERE MOVNG OFF THE CST EARLY
THIS MORNG...BUT IFR TO MVFR CIGS WERE AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT
SBY. ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE ACRS THE TAF SITES (EXCEPT
MAYBE SBY) FM ARND 08Z-17Z TODAY...AS LO PRES TRACKS FM EXTRM SW
VA SSE INTO SC. SO...WILL MAINTAIN IFR TO LWR MVFR CIGS AT
RIC...SBY...ORF...AND PHF DURING THIS TIME. CONDITIONS WILL THEN
IMPROVE FM N TO S THIS AFTN INTO TNGT...AS LO PRES MOVES FARTHER
AWAY TO THE SSE AND SOME DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FM THE NNW.

OUTLOOK...DRY WX AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MON INTO
WED MORNG...AS HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE NW.

&&

.MARINE...
ONE LO PRES AREA WAS OFF THE NC CST EARLY THIS MORNG...WHILE
ANOTHER LO WAS MOVNG INTO WNW NC. NNE WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WILL
OCCUR OVR MOST OF THE WTRS DURING TODAY...AS THE SECOND LO DROPS
SSE INTO SC WHILE THE INITIAL LO MOVES FARTHER OFF THE MID ATLC
CST. MAINTAINED SCA`S OVR THE SRN TWO CHES BAY ZNS...THE CURRITUCK
SND...AND THE SRN TWO CSTL ZNS UNTIL EARLY THIS AFTN...THRU THIS
EVENG...OR THRU LATE TNGT. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS. WINDS/SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SCA LEVELS TNGT...BEFORE
POSSIBLY RAMPING BACK UP AGAIN MON INTO TUE AFTN...DUE TO LO PRES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG




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