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000
FXUS61 KLWX 210054
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
854 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NEAR THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE
END OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT.

AN AREA OF VORTICITY ADVECTION IS MOVING AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND BLUE RIDGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO A DRY AIRMASS AND ONLY
HUNDREDTHS ARE EXPECTED IN PLACES THAT RECIEVE RAIN THIS EVENING.
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD TONIGHT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHLANDS. WESTERLY
FLOW AGAINST THE MTNS WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED LIFT AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY. FCST MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE 40S AND NEAR 50 IN THE
METROS.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES OVER HEAD. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES AND THEREFORE SOME INSTABILITY. ADDED ISOLATED TSTMS TO
AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LITTLE WIND FIELD
WILL LIMIT GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FCST MAX TEMPS ARE IN
THE 60S TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OCCLUDED AND STRENGTHEN NEAR
THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN DUE TO BAROCLINIC ENHANCEMENT AS
IT MOVES OVER RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST DURING THIS TIME. POPS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS STORMS PRECIP SHIELDS SLOWLY
STAGGERS NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE LOW. WE SHOULD SEE A RESPECTABLE QPF
GRADIENT WITH THE AREAS ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE BAY RECEIVING
ONLY A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL WHILE LOCATIONS ON
THE THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WILL SEE SIGNIFICANTLY MORE DUE TO THEIR
PROXIMITY OT THE LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAJOR FORECAST CHALLENGE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW IS THE
UPSLOPE PRECIP THREAT. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ALONG THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS WILL SEE LOW TEMPS THAT MAY DIP INTO THE MID 30S
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND GIVEN THE FETCH OF THE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES UPSTREAM OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT THE OPTION TO
INCLUDE SNOW AS A PRECIP TYPE WAS TEMPTING. BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
LAYER OF ABOVE-FREEZING AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE A BIT TOO
THICK FOR ANY SNOWFALL. THIS MAY CHANGE IN UPCOMING FORECASTS AS
CONFIDENCE IN LOW TEMPS INCREASES...BUT EVEN IF A FEW FLAKES DO
FALL NO ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL NOSE
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE BEAUTIFUL FALL DAYS WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE MID-60S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WORKWEEK AND OUR NEXT
THREAT FOR ADVERSE WEATHER SHOULD NOT PRESENT ITSELF UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY. PERIODIC SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR POSSIBLE...BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT THIS
TIME. LIGHT W WINDS TUESDAY.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF AVIATION HAZARDS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY CHANNELING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MD CHESAPEAKE BAY
SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND/TANGIER SOUND AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC
UNTIL 2 AM. WLY FLOW TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. LIGHT S WINDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...TRENDING TOWARDS
THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY NW DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS JUST OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY ALSO BE NEEDED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AS BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS FILL IN BEHIND LOW PRESSURE
DEPARTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES BACK ON THE RISE...APPROACHING 1 FT TONIGHT UNDER
SOUTHERLY WINDS. FORECASTS FOR WASHINGTON CHANNEL...BALTIMORE AND
ANNAPOLIS SHOW LIKELIHOOD TO REACH ACTION STAGES IN THE NEXT TWO
HIGH TIDE CYCLES TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME FALL
SHORT OF MINOR INUNDATION.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ531>534-537-
     539>541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...KS/CEB
MARINE...KS/CEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KLWX 210054
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
854 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NEAR THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE
END OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT.

AN AREA OF VORTICITY ADVECTION IS MOVING AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND BLUE RIDGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO A DRY AIRMASS AND ONLY
HUNDREDTHS ARE EXPECTED IN PLACES THAT RECIEVE RAIN THIS EVENING.
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD TONIGHT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHLANDS. WESTERLY
FLOW AGAINST THE MTNS WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED LIFT AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY. FCST MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE 40S AND NEAR 50 IN THE
METROS.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES OVER HEAD. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES AND THEREFORE SOME INSTABILITY. ADDED ISOLATED TSTMS TO
AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LITTLE WIND FIELD
WILL LIMIT GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FCST MAX TEMPS ARE IN
THE 60S TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OCCLUDED AND STRENGTHEN NEAR
THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN DUE TO BAROCLINIC ENHANCEMENT AS
IT MOVES OVER RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST DURING THIS TIME. POPS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS STORMS PRECIP SHIELDS SLOWLY
STAGGERS NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE LOW. WE SHOULD SEE A RESPECTABLE QPF
GRADIENT WITH THE AREAS ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE BAY RECEIVING
ONLY A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL WHILE LOCATIONS ON
THE THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WILL SEE SIGNIFICANTLY MORE DUE TO THEIR
PROXIMITY OT THE LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAJOR FORECAST CHALLENGE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW IS THE
UPSLOPE PRECIP THREAT. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ALONG THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS WILL SEE LOW TEMPS THAT MAY DIP INTO THE MID 30S
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND GIVEN THE FETCH OF THE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES UPSTREAM OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT THE OPTION TO
INCLUDE SNOW AS A PRECIP TYPE WAS TEMPTING. BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
LAYER OF ABOVE-FREEZING AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE A BIT TOO
THICK FOR ANY SNOWFALL. THIS MAY CHANGE IN UPCOMING FORECASTS AS
CONFIDENCE IN LOW TEMPS INCREASES...BUT EVEN IF A FEW FLAKES DO
FALL NO ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL NOSE
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE BEAUTIFUL FALL DAYS WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE MID-60S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WORKWEEK AND OUR NEXT
THREAT FOR ADVERSE WEATHER SHOULD NOT PRESENT ITSELF UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY. PERIODIC SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR POSSIBLE...BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT THIS
TIME. LIGHT W WINDS TUESDAY.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF AVIATION HAZARDS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY CHANNELING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MD CHESAPEAKE BAY
SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND/TANGIER SOUND AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC
UNTIL 2 AM. WLY FLOW TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. LIGHT S WINDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...TRENDING TOWARDS
THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY NW DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS JUST OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY ALSO BE NEEDED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AS BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS FILL IN BEHIND LOW PRESSURE
DEPARTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES BACK ON THE RISE...APPROACHING 1 FT TONIGHT UNDER
SOUTHERLY WINDS. FORECASTS FOR WASHINGTON CHANNEL...BALTIMORE AND
ANNAPOLIS SHOW LIKELIHOOD TO REACH ACTION STAGES IN THE NEXT TWO
HIGH TIDE CYCLES TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME FALL
SHORT OF MINOR INUNDATION.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ531>534-537-
     539>541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...KS/CEB
MARINE...KS/CEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







  [top]

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210027
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
827 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE THRU THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH A SFC COLD FRONT REACHING THE
SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS AROUND 12Z TUE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR AN
ISOLD SHOWER OVER OUR FAR NW ZONES...AND ALSO OVER THE NORTHERN
OBX...THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW OVERALL DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE TONIGHT (PW`S AOB 0.75")...SO WOULD BE HARD TO
GET MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN. OTW...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THRU TONIGHT WITH SKY CONDITIONS BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SW FLOW WILL BRING MILDER TEMPS THAN LAST
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 40S WEST TO LOW/MID 50S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLOW AMPLIFIES DURING THE SHORT TERM AS A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS
OVER ERN CANADA. ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVES SOUTH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VALLEY TUES THANKS TO A ~100 KT JET STREAK DIVING SWD
FROM CANADA. AS A RESULT...UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NE STATES LATE TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL
PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD TUES NIGHT INTO WED...LOCATING OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST LATE WED. WITH THE UPR LOW PIVOTING ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT...WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY NORTH/NE WHERE BEST UPWARD MOTION IS
ANTICIPATED. HAVE CHANCE (POPS 25-40%) ALONG AND NE OF A LINE FROM
LKU-OFP-MFV ON TUE...THEN BEST CHANCE (30-50%) MAINLY ALONG THE
VA COAST AND ONTO THE EASTERN SHORE TUE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...WILL
CARRY NO HIGHER THEN 20% POPS. HIGHS TUE IN THE UPPER 60S NW TO
MID 70S SE. LOWS TUE NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. MOSTLY
CLOUDY NORTH TO PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTH DURING THIE TIME.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE WED.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAIRLY DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS AS THE
TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WILL THEREFORE KEEP CHC POPS
LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND NE OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR WED...WITH
EMPHASIS ON THE NORTHERN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE (30-50% POPS).
COULD END UP BEING DRY OVER FAR SW ZONES. COOLER WED WITH HIGHS
ONLY 60-65.

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE WED NIGHT INTO THU...LOCATING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER CHANCES
BY THEN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SHORE (20%). DECREASING
CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. COOL AGAIN THU WITH HIGHS 60-65.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ERN US EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE MID 60S
TO AROUND 70 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S SUNDAY...AND POTENTIALLY 70-75 BY MONDAY. LOWS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR WX IS FORECAST THROUGH 00Z TAF PERIOD. EXPECTING PERIODS OF MID
LVL CLDNS (CIGS MAINLY 10-15KFT) TNGT W/ SCT-BKN CLDNS (MAINLY 10-12
KFT) EARLY TUE MRNG LWRG TO 5-6K FT TUE AFTN. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LEVELS TOO DRY BUT THERE IS A CHC FOR SHOWERS
MAINLY AT SBY BY TUESDAY AFTN (NOT IN TAF). LIGHT S WINDS BECOME W
NEAR 10 KNOTS TOWARD MIDDAY TUESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

OUTLOOK...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DEEPENS AND
LINGERS OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE WILL BE A
CHC FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS (ESPECIALLY ERN PORTIONS) TUE NIGHT
AND WED ENDING WED NIGHT. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY THURSDAY
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT IFR IS INDICATED. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
AWAY FROM THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY AND VFR CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE WIND TO
REMAIN S/SW. EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH WIND SPEEDS
AVERAGING UP TO 15-20 KT ACRS NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...AND
GENERALLY 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE COAST LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY EVENTUAL SCA
CONDITIONS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OFFSHORE THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. WITH FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM
THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210027
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
827 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE THRU THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH A SFC COLD FRONT REACHING THE
SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS AROUND 12Z TUE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR AN
ISOLD SHOWER OVER OUR FAR NW ZONES...AND ALSO OVER THE NORTHERN
OBX...THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW OVERALL DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE TONIGHT (PW`S AOB 0.75")...SO WOULD BE HARD TO
GET MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN. OTW...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THRU TONIGHT WITH SKY CONDITIONS BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SW FLOW WILL BRING MILDER TEMPS THAN LAST
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 40S WEST TO LOW/MID 50S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLOW AMPLIFIES DURING THE SHORT TERM AS A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS
OVER ERN CANADA. ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVES SOUTH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VALLEY TUES THANKS TO A ~100 KT JET STREAK DIVING SWD
FROM CANADA. AS A RESULT...UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NE STATES LATE TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL
PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD TUES NIGHT INTO WED...LOCATING OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST LATE WED. WITH THE UPR LOW PIVOTING ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT...WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY NORTH/NE WHERE BEST UPWARD MOTION IS
ANTICIPATED. HAVE CHANCE (POPS 25-40%) ALONG AND NE OF A LINE FROM
LKU-OFP-MFV ON TUE...THEN BEST CHANCE (30-50%) MAINLY ALONG THE
VA COAST AND ONTO THE EASTERN SHORE TUE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...WILL
CARRY NO HIGHER THEN 20% POPS. HIGHS TUE IN THE UPPER 60S NW TO
MID 70S SE. LOWS TUE NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. MOSTLY
CLOUDY NORTH TO PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTH DURING THIE TIME.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE WED.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAIRLY DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS AS THE
TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WILL THEREFORE KEEP CHC POPS
LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND NE OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR WED...WITH
EMPHASIS ON THE NORTHERN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE (30-50% POPS).
COULD END UP BEING DRY OVER FAR SW ZONES. COOLER WED WITH HIGHS
ONLY 60-65.

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE WED NIGHT INTO THU...LOCATING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER CHANCES
BY THEN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SHORE (20%). DECREASING
CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. COOL AGAIN THU WITH HIGHS 60-65.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ERN US EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE MID 60S
TO AROUND 70 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S SUNDAY...AND POTENTIALLY 70-75 BY MONDAY. LOWS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR WX IS FORECAST THROUGH 00Z TAF PERIOD. EXPECTING PERIODS OF MID
LVL CLDNS (CIGS MAINLY 10-15KFT) TNGT W/ SCT-BKN CLDNS (MAINLY 10-12
KFT) EARLY TUE MRNG LWRG TO 5-6K FT TUE AFTN. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LEVELS TOO DRY BUT THERE IS A CHC FOR SHOWERS
MAINLY AT SBY BY TUESDAY AFTN (NOT IN TAF). LIGHT S WINDS BECOME W
NEAR 10 KNOTS TOWARD MIDDAY TUESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

OUTLOOK...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DEEPENS AND
LINGERS OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE WILL BE A
CHC FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS (ESPECIALLY ERN PORTIONS) TUE NIGHT
AND WED ENDING WED NIGHT. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY THURSDAY
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT IFR IS INDICATED. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
AWAY FROM THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY AND VFR CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE WIND TO
REMAIN S/SW. EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH WIND SPEEDS
AVERAGING UP TO 15-20 KT ACRS NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...AND
GENERALLY 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE COAST LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY EVENTUAL SCA
CONDITIONS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OFFSHORE THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. WITH FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM
THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210027
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
827 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE THRU THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH A SFC COLD FRONT REACHING THE
SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS AROUND 12Z TUE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR AN
ISOLD SHOWER OVER OUR FAR NW ZONES...AND ALSO OVER THE NORTHERN
OBX...THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW OVERALL DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE TONIGHT (PW`S AOB 0.75")...SO WOULD BE HARD TO
GET MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN. OTW...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THRU TONIGHT WITH SKY CONDITIONS BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SW FLOW WILL BRING MILDER TEMPS THAN LAST
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 40S WEST TO LOW/MID 50S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLOW AMPLIFIES DURING THE SHORT TERM AS A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS
OVER ERN CANADA. ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVES SOUTH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VALLEY TUES THANKS TO A ~100 KT JET STREAK DIVING SWD
FROM CANADA. AS A RESULT...UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NE STATES LATE TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL
PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD TUES NIGHT INTO WED...LOCATING OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST LATE WED. WITH THE UPR LOW PIVOTING ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT...WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY NORTH/NE WHERE BEST UPWARD MOTION IS
ANTICIPATED. HAVE CHANCE (POPS 25-40%) ALONG AND NE OF A LINE FROM
LKU-OFP-MFV ON TUE...THEN BEST CHANCE (30-50%) MAINLY ALONG THE
VA COAST AND ONTO THE EASTERN SHORE TUE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...WILL
CARRY NO HIGHER THEN 20% POPS. HIGHS TUE IN THE UPPER 60S NW TO
MID 70S SE. LOWS TUE NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. MOSTLY
CLOUDY NORTH TO PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTH DURING THIE TIME.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE WED.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAIRLY DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS AS THE
TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WILL THEREFORE KEEP CHC POPS
LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND NE OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR WED...WITH
EMPHASIS ON THE NORTHERN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE (30-50% POPS).
COULD END UP BEING DRY OVER FAR SW ZONES. COOLER WED WITH HIGHS
ONLY 60-65.

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE WED NIGHT INTO THU...LOCATING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER CHANCES
BY THEN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SHORE (20%). DECREASING
CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. COOL AGAIN THU WITH HIGHS 60-65.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ERN US EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE MID 60S
TO AROUND 70 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S SUNDAY...AND POTENTIALLY 70-75 BY MONDAY. LOWS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR WX IS FORECAST THROUGH 00Z TAF PERIOD. EXPECTING PERIODS OF MID
LVL CLDNS (CIGS MAINLY 10-15KFT) TNGT W/ SCT-BKN CLDNS (MAINLY 10-12
KFT) EARLY TUE MRNG LWRG TO 5-6K FT TUE AFTN. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LEVELS TOO DRY BUT THERE IS A CHC FOR SHOWERS
MAINLY AT SBY BY TUESDAY AFTN (NOT IN TAF). LIGHT S WINDS BECOME W
NEAR 10 KNOTS TOWARD MIDDAY TUESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

OUTLOOK...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DEEPENS AND
LINGERS OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE WILL BE A
CHC FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS (ESPECIALLY ERN PORTIONS) TUE NIGHT
AND WED ENDING WED NIGHT. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY THURSDAY
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT IFR IS INDICATED. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
AWAY FROM THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY AND VFR CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE WIND TO
REMAIN S/SW. EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH WIND SPEEDS
AVERAGING UP TO 15-20 KT ACRS NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...AND
GENERALLY 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE COAST LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY EVENTUAL SCA
CONDITIONS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OFFSHORE THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. WITH FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM
THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210027
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
827 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE THRU THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH A SFC COLD FRONT REACHING THE
SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS AROUND 12Z TUE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR AN
ISOLD SHOWER OVER OUR FAR NW ZONES...AND ALSO OVER THE NORTHERN
OBX...THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW OVERALL DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE TONIGHT (PW`S AOB 0.75")...SO WOULD BE HARD TO
GET MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN. OTW...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THRU TONIGHT WITH SKY CONDITIONS BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SW FLOW WILL BRING MILDER TEMPS THAN LAST
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 40S WEST TO LOW/MID 50S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLOW AMPLIFIES DURING THE SHORT TERM AS A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS
OVER ERN CANADA. ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVES SOUTH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VALLEY TUES THANKS TO A ~100 KT JET STREAK DIVING SWD
FROM CANADA. AS A RESULT...UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NE STATES LATE TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL
PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD TUES NIGHT INTO WED...LOCATING OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST LATE WED. WITH THE UPR LOW PIVOTING ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT...WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY NORTH/NE WHERE BEST UPWARD MOTION IS
ANTICIPATED. HAVE CHANCE (POPS 25-40%) ALONG AND NE OF A LINE FROM
LKU-OFP-MFV ON TUE...THEN BEST CHANCE (30-50%) MAINLY ALONG THE
VA COAST AND ONTO THE EASTERN SHORE TUE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...WILL
CARRY NO HIGHER THEN 20% POPS. HIGHS TUE IN THE UPPER 60S NW TO
MID 70S SE. LOWS TUE NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. MOSTLY
CLOUDY NORTH TO PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTH DURING THIE TIME.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE WED.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAIRLY DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS AS THE
TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WILL THEREFORE KEEP CHC POPS
LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND NE OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR WED...WITH
EMPHASIS ON THE NORTHERN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE (30-50% POPS).
COULD END UP BEING DRY OVER FAR SW ZONES. COOLER WED WITH HIGHS
ONLY 60-65.

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE WED NIGHT INTO THU...LOCATING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER CHANCES
BY THEN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SHORE (20%). DECREASING
CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. COOL AGAIN THU WITH HIGHS 60-65.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ERN US EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE MID 60S
TO AROUND 70 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S SUNDAY...AND POTENTIALLY 70-75 BY MONDAY. LOWS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR WX IS FORECAST THROUGH 00Z TAF PERIOD. EXPECTING PERIODS OF MID
LVL CLDNS (CIGS MAINLY 10-15KFT) TNGT W/ SCT-BKN CLDNS (MAINLY 10-12
KFT) EARLY TUE MRNG LWRG TO 5-6K FT TUE AFTN. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LEVELS TOO DRY BUT THERE IS A CHC FOR SHOWERS
MAINLY AT SBY BY TUESDAY AFTN (NOT IN TAF). LIGHT S WINDS BECOME W
NEAR 10 KNOTS TOWARD MIDDAY TUESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

OUTLOOK...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DEEPENS AND
LINGERS OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE WILL BE A
CHC FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS (ESPECIALLY ERN PORTIONS) TUE NIGHT
AND WED ENDING WED NIGHT. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY THURSDAY
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT IFR IS INDICATED. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
AWAY FROM THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY AND VFR CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE WIND TO
REMAIN S/SW. EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH WIND SPEEDS
AVERAGING UP TO 15-20 KT ACRS NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...AND
GENERALLY 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE COAST LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY EVENTUAL SCA
CONDITIONS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OFFSHORE THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. WITH FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM
THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ







000
FXUS61 KLWX 210026
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
826 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NEAR THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE
END OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT.

AN AREA OF VORTICITY ADVECTION IS MOVING AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND BLUE RIDGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO A DRY AIRMASS AND ONLY
HUNDREDTHS ARE EXPECTED IN PLACES THAT RECIEVE RAIN THIS EVENING.
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD TONIGHT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHLANDS. WESTERLY
FLOW AGAINST THE MTNS WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED LIFT AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY. FCST MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE 40S AND NEAR 50 IN THE
METROS.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES OVER HEAD. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES AND THEREFORE SOME INSTABILITY. ADDED ISOLATED TSTMS TO
AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LITTLE WIND FIELD
WILL LIMIT GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FCST MAX TEMPS ARE IN
THE 60S TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OCCLUDED AND STRENGTHEN NEAR
THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN DUE TO BAROCLINIC ENHANCEMENT AS
IT MOVES OVER RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST DURING THIS TIME. POPS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS STORMS PRECIP SHIELDS SLOWLY
STAGGERS NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE LOW. WE SHOULD SEE A RESPECTABLE QPF
GRADIENT WITH THE AREAS ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE BAY RECEIVING
ONLY A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL WHILE LOCATIONS ON
THE THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WILL SEE SIGNIFICANTLY MORE DUE TO THEIR
PROXIMITY OT THE LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAJOR FORECAST CHALLENGE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW IS THE
UPSLOPE PRECIP THREAT. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ALONG THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS WILL SEE LOW TEMPS THAT MAY DIP INTO THE MID 30S
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND GIVEN THE FETCH OF THE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES UPSTREAM OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT THE OPTION TO
INCLUDE SNOW AS A PRECIP TYPE WAS TEMPTING. BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
LAYER OF ABOVE-FREEZING AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE A BIT TOO
THICK FOR ANY SNOWFALL. THIS MAY CHANGE IN UPCOMING FORECASTS AS
CONFIDENCE IN LOW TEMPS INCREASES...BUT EVEN IF A FEW FLAKES DO
FALL NO ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL NOSE
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE BEAUTIFUL FALL DAYS WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE MID-60S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WORKWEEK AND OUR NEXT
THREAT FOR ADVERSE WEATHER SHOULD NOT PRESENT ITSELF UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY. PERIODIC SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR POSSIBLE...BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT THIS
TIME. LIGHT W WINDS TUESDAY.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF AVIATION HAZARDS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY CHANNELING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MD CHESAPEAKE BAY
SOUTH OF DRUM PT/TANGIER SOUND AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC UNTIL 2 AM.
WLY FLOW TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
LIGHT S WINDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...TRENDING TOWARDS THE WEST
AND EVENTUALLY NW DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS JUST OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY ALSO BE NEEDED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AS BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS FILL IN BEHIND LOW PRESSURE
DEPARTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES BACK ON THE RISE...APPROACHING 1 FT TONIGHT UNDER
SOUTHERLY WINDS. FORECASTS FOR WASHINGTON CHANNEL...BALTIMORE AND
ANNAPOLIS SHOW LIKELIHOOD TO REACH ACTION STAGES IN THE NEXT TWO
HIGH TIDE CYCLES TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME FALL
SHORT OF MINOR INUNDATION.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...KS/CEB/HAS
MARINE...KS/CEB/HAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HAS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 210026
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
826 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NEAR THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE
END OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT.

AN AREA OF VORTICITY ADVECTION IS MOVING AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND BLUE RIDGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO A DRY AIRMASS AND ONLY
HUNDREDTHS ARE EXPECTED IN PLACES THAT RECIEVE RAIN THIS EVENING.
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD TONIGHT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHLANDS. WESTERLY
FLOW AGAINST THE MTNS WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED LIFT AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY. FCST MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE 40S AND NEAR 50 IN THE
METROS.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES OVER HEAD. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES AND THEREFORE SOME INSTABILITY. ADDED ISOLATED TSTMS TO
AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LITTLE WIND FIELD
WILL LIMIT GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FCST MAX TEMPS ARE IN
THE 60S TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OCCLUDED AND STRENGTHEN NEAR
THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN DUE TO BAROCLINIC ENHANCEMENT AS
IT MOVES OVER RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST DURING THIS TIME. POPS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS STORMS PRECIP SHIELDS SLOWLY
STAGGERS NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE LOW. WE SHOULD SEE A RESPECTABLE QPF
GRADIENT WITH THE AREAS ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE BAY RECEIVING
ONLY A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL WHILE LOCATIONS ON
THE THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WILL SEE SIGNIFICANTLY MORE DUE TO THEIR
PROXIMITY OT THE LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAJOR FORECAST CHALLENGE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW IS THE
UPSLOPE PRECIP THREAT. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ALONG THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS WILL SEE LOW TEMPS THAT MAY DIP INTO THE MID 30S
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND GIVEN THE FETCH OF THE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES UPSTREAM OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT THE OPTION TO
INCLUDE SNOW AS A PRECIP TYPE WAS TEMPTING. BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
LAYER OF ABOVE-FREEZING AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE A BIT TOO
THICK FOR ANY SNOWFALL. THIS MAY CHANGE IN UPCOMING FORECASTS AS
CONFIDENCE IN LOW TEMPS INCREASES...BUT EVEN IF A FEW FLAKES DO
FALL NO ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL NOSE
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE BEAUTIFUL FALL DAYS WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE MID-60S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WORKWEEK AND OUR NEXT
THREAT FOR ADVERSE WEATHER SHOULD NOT PRESENT ITSELF UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY. PERIODIC SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR POSSIBLE...BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT THIS
TIME. LIGHT W WINDS TUESDAY.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF AVIATION HAZARDS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY CHANNELING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MD CHESAPEAKE BAY
SOUTH OF DRUM PT/TANGIER SOUND AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC UNTIL 2 AM.
WLY FLOW TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
LIGHT S WINDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...TRENDING TOWARDS THE WEST
AND EVENTUALLY NW DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS JUST OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY ALSO BE NEEDED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AS BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS FILL IN BEHIND LOW PRESSURE
DEPARTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES BACK ON THE RISE...APPROACHING 1 FT TONIGHT UNDER
SOUTHERLY WINDS. FORECASTS FOR WASHINGTON CHANNEL...BALTIMORE AND
ANNAPOLIS SHOW LIKELIHOOD TO REACH ACTION STAGES IN THE NEXT TWO
HIGH TIDE CYCLES TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME FALL
SHORT OF MINOR INUNDATION.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...KS/CEB/HAS
MARINE...KS/CEB/HAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HAS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 210026
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
826 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NEAR THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE
END OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT.

AN AREA OF VORTICITY ADVECTION IS MOVING AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND BLUE RIDGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO A DRY AIRMASS AND ONLY
HUNDREDTHS ARE EXPECTED IN PLACES THAT RECIEVE RAIN THIS EVENING.
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD TONIGHT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHLANDS. WESTERLY
FLOW AGAINST THE MTNS WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED LIFT AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY. FCST MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE 40S AND NEAR 50 IN THE
METROS.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES OVER HEAD. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES AND THEREFORE SOME INSTABILITY. ADDED ISOLATED TSTMS TO
AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LITTLE WIND FIELD
WILL LIMIT GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FCST MAX TEMPS ARE IN
THE 60S TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OCCLUDED AND STRENGTHEN NEAR
THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN DUE TO BAROCLINIC ENHANCEMENT AS
IT MOVES OVER RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST DURING THIS TIME. POPS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS STORMS PRECIP SHIELDS SLOWLY
STAGGERS NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE LOW. WE SHOULD SEE A RESPECTABLE QPF
GRADIENT WITH THE AREAS ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE BAY RECEIVING
ONLY A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL WHILE LOCATIONS ON
THE THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WILL SEE SIGNIFICANTLY MORE DUE TO THEIR
PROXIMITY OT THE LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAJOR FORECAST CHALLENGE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW IS THE
UPSLOPE PRECIP THREAT. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ALONG THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS WILL SEE LOW TEMPS THAT MAY DIP INTO THE MID 30S
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND GIVEN THE FETCH OF THE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES UPSTREAM OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT THE OPTION TO
INCLUDE SNOW AS A PRECIP TYPE WAS TEMPTING. BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
LAYER OF ABOVE-FREEZING AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE A BIT TOO
THICK FOR ANY SNOWFALL. THIS MAY CHANGE IN UPCOMING FORECASTS AS
CONFIDENCE IN LOW TEMPS INCREASES...BUT EVEN IF A FEW FLAKES DO
FALL NO ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL NOSE
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE BEAUTIFUL FALL DAYS WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE MID-60S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WORKWEEK AND OUR NEXT
THREAT FOR ADVERSE WEATHER SHOULD NOT PRESENT ITSELF UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY. PERIODIC SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR POSSIBLE...BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT THIS
TIME. LIGHT W WINDS TUESDAY.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF AVIATION HAZARDS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY CHANNELING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MD CHESAPEAKE BAY
SOUTH OF DRUM PT/TANGIER SOUND AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC UNTIL 2 AM.
WLY FLOW TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
LIGHT S WINDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...TRENDING TOWARDS THE WEST
AND EVENTUALLY NW DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS JUST OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY ALSO BE NEEDED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AS BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS FILL IN BEHIND LOW PRESSURE
DEPARTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES BACK ON THE RISE...APPROACHING 1 FT TONIGHT UNDER
SOUTHERLY WINDS. FORECASTS FOR WASHINGTON CHANNEL...BALTIMORE AND
ANNAPOLIS SHOW LIKELIHOOD TO REACH ACTION STAGES IN THE NEXT TWO
HIGH TIDE CYCLES TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME FALL
SHORT OF MINOR INUNDATION.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...KS/CEB/HAS
MARINE...KS/CEB/HAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HAS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 210026
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
826 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NEAR THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE
END OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT.

AN AREA OF VORTICITY ADVECTION IS MOVING AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND BLUE RIDGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO A DRY AIRMASS AND ONLY
HUNDREDTHS ARE EXPECTED IN PLACES THAT RECIEVE RAIN THIS EVENING.
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD TONIGHT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHLANDS. WESTERLY
FLOW AGAINST THE MTNS WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED LIFT AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY. FCST MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE 40S AND NEAR 50 IN THE
METROS.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES OVER HEAD. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES AND THEREFORE SOME INSTABILITY. ADDED ISOLATED TSTMS TO
AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LITTLE WIND FIELD
WILL LIMIT GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FCST MAX TEMPS ARE IN
THE 60S TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OCCLUDED AND STRENGTHEN NEAR
THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN DUE TO BAROCLINIC ENHANCEMENT AS
IT MOVES OVER RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST DURING THIS TIME. POPS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS STORMS PRECIP SHIELDS SLOWLY
STAGGERS NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE LOW. WE SHOULD SEE A RESPECTABLE QPF
GRADIENT WITH THE AREAS ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE BAY RECEIVING
ONLY A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL WHILE LOCATIONS ON
THE THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WILL SEE SIGNIFICANTLY MORE DUE TO THEIR
PROXIMITY OT THE LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAJOR FORECAST CHALLENGE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW IS THE
UPSLOPE PRECIP THREAT. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ALONG THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS WILL SEE LOW TEMPS THAT MAY DIP INTO THE MID 30S
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND GIVEN THE FETCH OF THE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES UPSTREAM OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT THE OPTION TO
INCLUDE SNOW AS A PRECIP TYPE WAS TEMPTING. BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
LAYER OF ABOVE-FREEZING AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE A BIT TOO
THICK FOR ANY SNOWFALL. THIS MAY CHANGE IN UPCOMING FORECASTS AS
CONFIDENCE IN LOW TEMPS INCREASES...BUT EVEN IF A FEW FLAKES DO
FALL NO ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL NOSE
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE BEAUTIFUL FALL DAYS WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE MID-60S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WORKWEEK AND OUR NEXT
THREAT FOR ADVERSE WEATHER SHOULD NOT PRESENT ITSELF UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY. PERIODIC SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR POSSIBLE...BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT THIS
TIME. LIGHT W WINDS TUESDAY.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF AVIATION HAZARDS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY CHANNELING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MD CHESAPEAKE BAY
SOUTH OF DRUM PT/TANGIER SOUND AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC UNTIL 2 AM.
WLY FLOW TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
LIGHT S WINDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...TRENDING TOWARDS THE WEST
AND EVENTUALLY NW DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS JUST OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY ALSO BE NEEDED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AS BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS FILL IN BEHIND LOW PRESSURE
DEPARTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES BACK ON THE RISE...APPROACHING 1 FT TONIGHT UNDER
SOUTHERLY WINDS. FORECASTS FOR WASHINGTON CHANNEL...BALTIMORE AND
ANNAPOLIS SHOW LIKELIHOOD TO REACH ACTION STAGES IN THE NEXT TWO
HIGH TIDE CYCLES TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME FALL
SHORT OF MINOR INUNDATION.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...KS/CEB/HAS
MARINE...KS/CEB/HAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HAS







  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 202329
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
729 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAINY AND COOL THROUGH MID-WEEK WHEN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHIFTS EASTWARD. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EARLY EVENING UPDATE TO ADD CAT POPS FARTHER SOUTH TONIGHT BASED
ON RADAR TRENDS SHOWING BANDS OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING WELL INTO SOUTHERN
OHIO. ALSO SPEED UP TIMING FOR SHOWERS INTO RIDGES EARLY TONIGHT.
MODEST QPF ADDED. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES OR WINDS. PREVIOUS
DISCO BELOW.


SW TROF AND ATTENDANT VORT MAX EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY CURRENTLY
SWINGING THROUGH ERN INDIANA SOUTH OF THE SFC NEARING LAKE HURON.
MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION PRODUCING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF TROF AXIS
OVER WV AND SW PA WILL PUSH EAST TONIGHT. THOSE CLOUDS WILL BE
REPLACED BY LOWER CLOUDS THIS EVENING KEEPING TEMPS MODERATED.

RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN QUITE NUMEROUS TODAY...BUT LITTLE MORE
THAN VIRGA HAS BEEN REPORTED UP TO THIS POINT AS DRY AIR FROM THE
MID LEVELS DOWN ARE KEEPING ANY RAIN SHOWERS FROM REACHING THE
GROUND. RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SW TROF ARE SHOWING UP
OVER WRN OHIO AND ARE TIMED TO REACH OUR WRN PERIPHERY BY ABOUT
21Z. BY 00Z ALL OF THE NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE THE SW TROF AXIS
THROUGH ERN OH WITH RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE
WNW. DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND BETTER FORCING WILL REMAIN
CLOSER TO THE LOW NEAR LAKE ERIE...THUS WILL CONTINUE THE
CATEGORICAL POPS THERE. ALTHOUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
BEGINS TO OUTRUN THE TROF AXIS ACROSS OUR SOUTH...ENOUGH MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS NRN WV. WILL NOT DEVIATE
FROM THE LIKELY POPS.

TONIGHT THE SFC LOW IS PULLED SOUTH AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES AS
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO CUT-OFF. AS THIS HAPPENS...ABUNDANT LLVL
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA KEEPING CLOUDS AND RAIN IN THE
FORECAST. AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY PASSES TUES...THE SFC-H8 LOW CORE
SHIFTS EAST BRINGING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LLVL WIND FIELD.
WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS IN FOR THE SE RIDGES AS A RESULT. DRIEST
LOCATION IN THE CWA TUES LOOKS TO BE OVER ERN OHIO WHERE DRIER AIR
ALOFT BEGINS FEEDING INTO THE UPPER LOW WHICH MAY WORK TO SUPPRESS
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES
OVER THE AREA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE
MID-LEVEL COLD POOL BEGINS TO DEPART TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AMPLY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY...AND UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN LOW END CHANCES OF
SHOWERS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND FAIRLY GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS
IN THE RIDGES. AS SHEAR INCREASES AFTER THIS TIME...MID-LEVEL
RIDGING STARTS TO IMPINGE...AND DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR FINALLY
STARTS TO WORK INTO THE REGION...SHOWER CHANCES DWINDLE TO LESS
THAN MENTIONABLE BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK NOW LOOKS RATHER DRY...WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING TOWARD NORMAL AS SUNSHINE SHOULD FINALLY
MAKE A RETURN TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EWD PROGRESS OF THE MID-WEEK UPR LOW WITH EXPANDING RIDGE OVR THE
CNTRL CONUS SHOULD ENSURE A GENLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CLOSE TO
THE WEEK. TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO REPRESENT THE LONG TERM
PD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR AT THE START...BUT FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
PASSES THROUGH. HAVE ALL SITES DROPPING TO MVFR...AND SEVERAL
SHOULD REACH IFR ON EITHER A PREVAILING OR TEMPORARY BASIS AFTER
06Z OR SO. THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER LOW ON TUESDAY WILL MAINTAIN
MVFR CIGS INTO AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE IMPROVMENT TO VFR
LATE IN THE TAFS BUT COULD EASILY SEE MVFR LINGER. LIGHT S/SW
WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO W BY 12Z AND EVEN TURN WNW BY AFTERNOON.

.AVIATION /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW
DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPHI 202220
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
620 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORECAST TO PASS OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH
AND NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD AROUND THURSDAY
NIGHT AND ARRIVING IN NOVA SCOTIA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWING FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY TONIGHT WITH DEEPER LAYER
MOISTURE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LEAD IMPULSE,
WITHIN THE LARGER GREAT LAKES TROUGH, NEARS FROM THE WEST AS ITS
SURFACE INFLECTION SLOWLY DIVES INTO NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
LATE TONIGHT. WE CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR WESTERN
ZONES STARTING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW APPROACHES WITH
ITS WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL BALMY COMPARED TO THIS MORNINGS LOWS.
EXPECTING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER-40S IN MOST PLACES. A
BLEND OF THE MET/MAV WORKED BEST.

MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS WITH THIS
UPDATE. LATEST RADAR HAS SOME WK RETURNS W OF THE AREA. BUT WILL
SEE WHERE THEY ARE FOR THE NEXT UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A FILLING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTHWEST SLIDES
FURTHER SOUTH LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND BECOMES MORE BROAD. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A DRY SLOT SETTING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
OUR CWA, THOUGH THE EXACT PLACEMENT IS STILL SUSPECT. A BETTER
DEFINED AND STRONGER COASTAL LOW FORMS OFF THE DELMARVA LATE IN
THE DAY AND MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST...LOTS OF JET DYNAMICS
INVOLVED. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASES TO LIKELY DURING THE DAY
MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES, THOUGH STILL NOT
ENTIRELY SOLD ON A COMPLETELY DRY DAY ELSEWHERE SO WE CONTINUE THE
CHANCE POPS. NOT LOOKING AT A COMPLETE WASHOUT TOMORROW WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THE MOST PROBABLE. WE KEEP THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST, EVEN WITH STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FORMING, AS
THE BETTER DYNAMICS OFFSHORE COULD ROB INLAND AREAS OF ALL THE
LUSTER. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB WITH THE MODIFYING
AIR MASS AND SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDED FROM WESTERN HUDSON BAY, ACROSS
WESTERN ONTARIO TO THE WESTERN PART OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. A MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE LIFT
UNDER ITS LEFT FRONT QUADRANT TONIGHT OVER THE LAKE HURON
VICINITY. THE MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
WEST VIRGINIA ON TUESDAY EVENING AND IT SHOULD PASS OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FEATURE IS THEN
ANTICIPATED TO MEANDER OFF OUR COAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AND REACHING THE
WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON FRIDAY MORNING. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST
TO FOLLOW THE MID LEVEL LOW CLOSELY DURING THE PERIOD.

WE ARE EXPECTING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL SHOULD BE MOSTLY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING MID
LEVEL LOW. AS A RESULT, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL IN OUR REGION. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS IN OUR COASTAL
AREAS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
APPROACH AN INCH AT SOME LOCATIONS. ALSO, MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN
THAT AREA MAY TRANSLATE INTO ISOLATED LIGHTNING AND THUNDER.
REGARDLESS, THE EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY
FLOODING PROBLEMS.

AS THE LOW BEGINS TO PULL AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY
NIGHT, THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD END GRADUALLY IN OUR
AREA.

A COUPLE OF REINFORCING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES SHOULD DROP OVER
OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE COMING WEEKEND. THE SHORT WAVES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THEM.
THEREFORE, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION AT THAT TIME.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST SHOULD BUILD TOWARD OUR REGION
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH THE RAIN
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. READINGS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
FOR THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE THIS EVENING. SOME PATCHY MVFR
DRIZZLE/MIST IS POSSIBLE AT ABE/RDG EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
CONFIDENCE EXCEPT FOR MIST DEVELOPMENT.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARS FROM THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. WINDS START OFF LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH, MAYBE
SOUTHEAST, AND VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. KEEP
LOW CONFIDENCE ON SHOWER IMPACTS AT TERMINALS SO KEEP THE MENTION
OUT FOR THE TIME BEING. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN VFR
AND MVFR IN PERIODS OF RAIN.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS
MAY GUST INTO THE LOW-20 KNOT RANGE FOR A TIME AS SEAS REMAIN
AROUND 3 FEET.

TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO DECREASE AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVES IN OVERHEAD. SEAS REMAIN 2 TO 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPHI 202220
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
620 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORECAST TO PASS OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH
AND NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD AROUND THURSDAY
NIGHT AND ARRIVING IN NOVA SCOTIA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWING FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY TONIGHT WITH DEEPER LAYER
MOISTURE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LEAD IMPULSE,
WITHIN THE LARGER GREAT LAKES TROUGH, NEARS FROM THE WEST AS ITS
SURFACE INFLECTION SLOWLY DIVES INTO NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
LATE TONIGHT. WE CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR WESTERN
ZONES STARTING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW APPROACHES WITH
ITS WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL BALMY COMPARED TO THIS MORNINGS LOWS.
EXPECTING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER-40S IN MOST PLACES. A
BLEND OF THE MET/MAV WORKED BEST.

MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS WITH THIS
UPDATE. LATEST RADAR HAS SOME WK RETURNS W OF THE AREA. BUT WILL
SEE WHERE THEY ARE FOR THE NEXT UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A FILLING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTHWEST SLIDES
FURTHER SOUTH LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND BECOMES MORE BROAD. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A DRY SLOT SETTING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
OUR CWA, THOUGH THE EXACT PLACEMENT IS STILL SUSPECT. A BETTER
DEFINED AND STRONGER COASTAL LOW FORMS OFF THE DELMARVA LATE IN
THE DAY AND MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST...LOTS OF JET DYNAMICS
INVOLVED. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASES TO LIKELY DURING THE DAY
MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES, THOUGH STILL NOT
ENTIRELY SOLD ON A COMPLETELY DRY DAY ELSEWHERE SO WE CONTINUE THE
CHANCE POPS. NOT LOOKING AT A COMPLETE WASHOUT TOMORROW WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THE MOST PROBABLE. WE KEEP THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST, EVEN WITH STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FORMING, AS
THE BETTER DYNAMICS OFFSHORE COULD ROB INLAND AREAS OF ALL THE
LUSTER. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB WITH THE MODIFYING
AIR MASS AND SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDED FROM WESTERN HUDSON BAY, ACROSS
WESTERN ONTARIO TO THE WESTERN PART OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. A MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE LIFT
UNDER ITS LEFT FRONT QUADRANT TONIGHT OVER THE LAKE HURON
VICINITY. THE MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
WEST VIRGINIA ON TUESDAY EVENING AND IT SHOULD PASS OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FEATURE IS THEN
ANTICIPATED TO MEANDER OFF OUR COAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AND REACHING THE
WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON FRIDAY MORNING. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST
TO FOLLOW THE MID LEVEL LOW CLOSELY DURING THE PERIOD.

WE ARE EXPECTING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL SHOULD BE MOSTLY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING MID
LEVEL LOW. AS A RESULT, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL IN OUR REGION. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS IN OUR COASTAL
AREAS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
APPROACH AN INCH AT SOME LOCATIONS. ALSO, MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN
THAT AREA MAY TRANSLATE INTO ISOLATED LIGHTNING AND THUNDER.
REGARDLESS, THE EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY
FLOODING PROBLEMS.

AS THE LOW BEGINS TO PULL AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY
NIGHT, THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD END GRADUALLY IN OUR
AREA.

A COUPLE OF REINFORCING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES SHOULD DROP OVER
OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE COMING WEEKEND. THE SHORT WAVES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THEM.
THEREFORE, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION AT THAT TIME.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST SHOULD BUILD TOWARD OUR REGION
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH THE RAIN
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. READINGS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
FOR THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE THIS EVENING. SOME PATCHY MVFR
DRIZZLE/MIST IS POSSIBLE AT ABE/RDG EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
CONFIDENCE EXCEPT FOR MIST DEVELOPMENT.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARS FROM THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. WINDS START OFF LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH, MAYBE
SOUTHEAST, AND VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. KEEP
LOW CONFIDENCE ON SHOWER IMPACTS AT TERMINALS SO KEEP THE MENTION
OUT FOR THE TIME BEING. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN VFR
AND MVFR IN PERIODS OF RAIN.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS
MAY GUST INTO THE LOW-20 KNOT RANGE FOR A TIME AS SEAS REMAIN
AROUND 3 FEET.

TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO DECREASE AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVES IN OVERHEAD. SEAS REMAIN 2 TO 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPHI 202220
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
620 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORECAST TO PASS OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH
AND NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD AROUND THURSDAY
NIGHT AND ARRIVING IN NOVA SCOTIA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWING FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY TONIGHT WITH DEEPER LAYER
MOISTURE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LEAD IMPULSE,
WITHIN THE LARGER GREAT LAKES TROUGH, NEARS FROM THE WEST AS ITS
SURFACE INFLECTION SLOWLY DIVES INTO NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
LATE TONIGHT. WE CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR WESTERN
ZONES STARTING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW APPROACHES WITH
ITS WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL BALMY COMPARED TO THIS MORNINGS LOWS.
EXPECTING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER-40S IN MOST PLACES. A
BLEND OF THE MET/MAV WORKED BEST.

MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS WITH THIS
UPDATE. LATEST RADAR HAS SOME WK RETURNS W OF THE AREA. BUT WILL
SEE WHERE THEY ARE FOR THE NEXT UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A FILLING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTHWEST SLIDES
FURTHER SOUTH LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND BECOMES MORE BROAD. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A DRY SLOT SETTING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
OUR CWA, THOUGH THE EXACT PLACEMENT IS STILL SUSPECT. A BETTER
DEFINED AND STRONGER COASTAL LOW FORMS OFF THE DELMARVA LATE IN
THE DAY AND MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST...LOTS OF JET DYNAMICS
INVOLVED. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASES TO LIKELY DURING THE DAY
MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES, THOUGH STILL NOT
ENTIRELY SOLD ON A COMPLETELY DRY DAY ELSEWHERE SO WE CONTINUE THE
CHANCE POPS. NOT LOOKING AT A COMPLETE WASHOUT TOMORROW WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THE MOST PROBABLE. WE KEEP THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST, EVEN WITH STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FORMING, AS
THE BETTER DYNAMICS OFFSHORE COULD ROB INLAND AREAS OF ALL THE
LUSTER. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB WITH THE MODIFYING
AIR MASS AND SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDED FROM WESTERN HUDSON BAY, ACROSS
WESTERN ONTARIO TO THE WESTERN PART OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. A MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE LIFT
UNDER ITS LEFT FRONT QUADRANT TONIGHT OVER THE LAKE HURON
VICINITY. THE MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
WEST VIRGINIA ON TUESDAY EVENING AND IT SHOULD PASS OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FEATURE IS THEN
ANTICIPATED TO MEANDER OFF OUR COAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AND REACHING THE
WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON FRIDAY MORNING. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST
TO FOLLOW THE MID LEVEL LOW CLOSELY DURING THE PERIOD.

WE ARE EXPECTING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL SHOULD BE MOSTLY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING MID
LEVEL LOW. AS A RESULT, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL IN OUR REGION. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS IN OUR COASTAL
AREAS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
APPROACH AN INCH AT SOME LOCATIONS. ALSO, MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN
THAT AREA MAY TRANSLATE INTO ISOLATED LIGHTNING AND THUNDER.
REGARDLESS, THE EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY
FLOODING PROBLEMS.

AS THE LOW BEGINS TO PULL AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY
NIGHT, THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD END GRADUALLY IN OUR
AREA.

A COUPLE OF REINFORCING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES SHOULD DROP OVER
OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE COMING WEEKEND. THE SHORT WAVES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THEM.
THEREFORE, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION AT THAT TIME.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST SHOULD BUILD TOWARD OUR REGION
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH THE RAIN
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. READINGS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
FOR THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE THIS EVENING. SOME PATCHY MVFR
DRIZZLE/MIST IS POSSIBLE AT ABE/RDG EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
CONFIDENCE EXCEPT FOR MIST DEVELOPMENT.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARS FROM THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. WINDS START OFF LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH, MAYBE
SOUTHEAST, AND VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. KEEP
LOW CONFIDENCE ON SHOWER IMPACTS AT TERMINALS SO KEEP THE MENTION
OUT FOR THE TIME BEING. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN VFR
AND MVFR IN PERIODS OF RAIN.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS
MAY GUST INTO THE LOW-20 KNOT RANGE FOR A TIME AS SEAS REMAIN
AROUND 3 FEET.

TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO DECREASE AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVES IN OVERHEAD. SEAS REMAIN 2 TO 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPHI 202220
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
620 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORECAST TO PASS OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH
AND NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD AROUND THURSDAY
NIGHT AND ARRIVING IN NOVA SCOTIA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWING FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY TONIGHT WITH DEEPER LAYER
MOISTURE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LEAD IMPULSE,
WITHIN THE LARGER GREAT LAKES TROUGH, NEARS FROM THE WEST AS ITS
SURFACE INFLECTION SLOWLY DIVES INTO NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
LATE TONIGHT. WE CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR WESTERN
ZONES STARTING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW APPROACHES WITH
ITS WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL BALMY COMPARED TO THIS MORNINGS LOWS.
EXPECTING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER-40S IN MOST PLACES. A
BLEND OF THE MET/MAV WORKED BEST.

MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS WITH THIS
UPDATE. LATEST RADAR HAS SOME WK RETURNS W OF THE AREA. BUT WILL
SEE WHERE THEY ARE FOR THE NEXT UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A FILLING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTHWEST SLIDES
FURTHER SOUTH LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND BECOMES MORE BROAD. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A DRY SLOT SETTING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
OUR CWA, THOUGH THE EXACT PLACEMENT IS STILL SUSPECT. A BETTER
DEFINED AND STRONGER COASTAL LOW FORMS OFF THE DELMARVA LATE IN
THE DAY AND MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST...LOTS OF JET DYNAMICS
INVOLVED. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASES TO LIKELY DURING THE DAY
MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES, THOUGH STILL NOT
ENTIRELY SOLD ON A COMPLETELY DRY DAY ELSEWHERE SO WE CONTINUE THE
CHANCE POPS. NOT LOOKING AT A COMPLETE WASHOUT TOMORROW WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THE MOST PROBABLE. WE KEEP THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST, EVEN WITH STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FORMING, AS
THE BETTER DYNAMICS OFFSHORE COULD ROB INLAND AREAS OF ALL THE
LUSTER. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB WITH THE MODIFYING
AIR MASS AND SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDED FROM WESTERN HUDSON BAY, ACROSS
WESTERN ONTARIO TO THE WESTERN PART OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. A MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE LIFT
UNDER ITS LEFT FRONT QUADRANT TONIGHT OVER THE LAKE HURON
VICINITY. THE MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
WEST VIRGINIA ON TUESDAY EVENING AND IT SHOULD PASS OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FEATURE IS THEN
ANTICIPATED TO MEANDER OFF OUR COAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AND REACHING THE
WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON FRIDAY MORNING. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST
TO FOLLOW THE MID LEVEL LOW CLOSELY DURING THE PERIOD.

WE ARE EXPECTING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL SHOULD BE MOSTLY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING MID
LEVEL LOW. AS A RESULT, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL IN OUR REGION. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS IN OUR COASTAL
AREAS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
APPROACH AN INCH AT SOME LOCATIONS. ALSO, MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN
THAT AREA MAY TRANSLATE INTO ISOLATED LIGHTNING AND THUNDER.
REGARDLESS, THE EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY
FLOODING PROBLEMS.

AS THE LOW BEGINS TO PULL AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY
NIGHT, THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD END GRADUALLY IN OUR
AREA.

A COUPLE OF REINFORCING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES SHOULD DROP OVER
OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE COMING WEEKEND. THE SHORT WAVES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THEM.
THEREFORE, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION AT THAT TIME.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST SHOULD BUILD TOWARD OUR REGION
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH THE RAIN
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. READINGS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
FOR THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE THIS EVENING. SOME PATCHY MVFR
DRIZZLE/MIST IS POSSIBLE AT ABE/RDG EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
CONFIDENCE EXCEPT FOR MIST DEVELOPMENT.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARS FROM THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. WINDS START OFF LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH, MAYBE
SOUTHEAST, AND VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. KEEP
LOW CONFIDENCE ON SHOWER IMPACTS AT TERMINALS SO KEEP THE MENTION
OUT FOR THE TIME BEING. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN VFR
AND MVFR IN PERIODS OF RAIN.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS
MAY GUST INTO THE LOW-20 KNOT RANGE FOR A TIME AS SEAS REMAIN
AROUND 3 FEET.

TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO DECREASE AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVES IN OVERHEAD. SEAS REMAIN 2 TO 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 202217
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
617 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAINY AND COOL THROUGH MID-WEEK WHEN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHIFTS EASTWARD. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EARLY EVENING UPDATE TO ADD CAT POPS FARTHER SOUTH TONIGHT BASED
ON RADAR TRENDS SHOWING BANDS OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING WELL INTO SOUTHERN
OHIO. ALSO SPEED UP TIMING FOR SHOWERS INTO RIDGES EARLY TONIGHT.
MODEST QPF ADDED. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES OR WINDS. PREVIOUS
DISCO BELOW.


SW TROF AND ATTENDANT VORT MAX EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY CURRENTLY
SWINGING THROUGH ERN INDIANA SOUTH OF THE SFC NEARING LAKE HURON.
MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION PRODUCING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF TROF AXIS
OVER WV AND SW PA WILL PUSH EAST TONIGHT. THOSE CLOUDS WILL BE
REPLACED BY LOWER CLOUDS THIS EVENING KEEPING TEMPS MODERATED.

RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN QUITE NUMEROUS TODAY...BUT LITTLE MORE
THAN VIRGA HAS BEEN REPORTED UP TO THIS POINT AS DRY AIR FROM THE
MID LEVELS DOWN ARE KEEPING ANY RAIN SHOWERS FROM REACHING THE
GROUND. RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SW TROF ARE SHOWING UP
OVER WRN OHIO AND ARE TIMED TO REACH OUR WRN PERIPHERY BY ABOUT
21Z. BY 00Z ALL OF THE NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE THE SW TROF AXIS
THROUGH ERN OH WITH RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE
WNW. DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND BETTER FORCING WILL REMAIN
CLOSER TO THE LOW NEAR LAKE ERIE...THUS WILL CONTINUE THE
CATEGORICAL POPS THERE. ALTHOUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
BEGINS TO OUTRUN THE TROF AXIS ACROSS OUR SOUTH...ENOUGH MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS NRN WV. WILL NOT DEVIATE
FROM THE LIKELY POPS.

TONIGHT THE SFC LOW IS PULLED SOUTH AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES AS
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO CUT-OFF. AS THIS HAPPENS...ABUNDANT LLVL
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA KEEPING CLOUDS AND RAIN IN THE
FORECAST. AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY PASSES TUES...THE SFC-H8 LOW CORE
SHIFTS EAST BRINGING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LLVL WIND FIELD.
WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS IN FOR THE SE RIDGES AS A RESULT. DRIEST
LOCATION IN THE CWA TUES LOOKS TO BE OVER ERN OHIO WHERE DRIER AIR
ALOFT BEGINS FEEDING INTO THE UPPER LOW WHICH MAY WORK TO SUPPRESS
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES
OVER THE AREA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE
MID-LEVEL COLD POOL BEGINS TO DEPART TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AMPLY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY...AND UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN LOW END CHANCES OF
SHOWERS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND FAIRLY GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS
IN THE RIDGES. AS SHEAR INCREASES AFTER THIS TIME...MID-LEVEL
RIDGING STARTS TO IMPINGE...AND DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR FINALLY
STARTS TO WORK INTO THE REGION...SHOWER CHANCES DWINDLE TO LESS
THAN MENTIONABLE BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK NOW LOOKS RATHER DRY...WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING TOWARD NORMAL AS SUNSHINE SHOULD FINALLY
MAKE A RETURN TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EWD PROGRESS OF THE MID-WEEK UPR LOW WITH EXPANDING RIDGE OVR THE
CNTRL CONUS SHOULD ENSURE A GENLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CLOSE TO
THE WEEK. TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO REPRESENT THE LONG TERM
PD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLDFRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AND
INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTS
AND DRIFTS SOUTH TUES LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER.
MVFR CIGS MUCH OF TUES...BUT COULD SEE IFR IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS
THAT PERSIST.

.AVIATION /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW
DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 202217
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
617 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAINY AND COOL THROUGH MID-WEEK WHEN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHIFTS EASTWARD. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EARLY EVENING UPDATE TO ADD CAT POPS FARTHER SOUTH TONIGHT BASED
ON RADAR TRENDS SHOWING BANDS OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING WELL INTO SOUTHERN
OHIO. ALSO SPEED UP TIMING FOR SHOWERS INTO RIDGES EARLY TONIGHT.
MODEST QPF ADDED. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES OR WINDS. PREVIOUS
DISCO BELOW.


SW TROF AND ATTENDANT VORT MAX EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY CURRENTLY
SWINGING THROUGH ERN INDIANA SOUTH OF THE SFC NEARING LAKE HURON.
MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION PRODUCING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF TROF AXIS
OVER WV AND SW PA WILL PUSH EAST TONIGHT. THOSE CLOUDS WILL BE
REPLACED BY LOWER CLOUDS THIS EVENING KEEPING TEMPS MODERATED.

RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN QUITE NUMEROUS TODAY...BUT LITTLE MORE
THAN VIRGA HAS BEEN REPORTED UP TO THIS POINT AS DRY AIR FROM THE
MID LEVELS DOWN ARE KEEPING ANY RAIN SHOWERS FROM REACHING THE
GROUND. RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SW TROF ARE SHOWING UP
OVER WRN OHIO AND ARE TIMED TO REACH OUR WRN PERIPHERY BY ABOUT
21Z. BY 00Z ALL OF THE NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE THE SW TROF AXIS
THROUGH ERN OH WITH RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE
WNW. DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND BETTER FORCING WILL REMAIN
CLOSER TO THE LOW NEAR LAKE ERIE...THUS WILL CONTINUE THE
CATEGORICAL POPS THERE. ALTHOUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
BEGINS TO OUTRUN THE TROF AXIS ACROSS OUR SOUTH...ENOUGH MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS NRN WV. WILL NOT DEVIATE
FROM THE LIKELY POPS.

TONIGHT THE SFC LOW IS PULLED SOUTH AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES AS
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO CUT-OFF. AS THIS HAPPENS...ABUNDANT LLVL
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA KEEPING CLOUDS AND RAIN IN THE
FORECAST. AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY PASSES TUES...THE SFC-H8 LOW CORE
SHIFTS EAST BRINGING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LLVL WIND FIELD.
WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS IN FOR THE SE RIDGES AS A RESULT. DRIEST
LOCATION IN THE CWA TUES LOOKS TO BE OVER ERN OHIO WHERE DRIER AIR
ALOFT BEGINS FEEDING INTO THE UPPER LOW WHICH MAY WORK TO SUPPRESS
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES
OVER THE AREA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE
MID-LEVEL COLD POOL BEGINS TO DEPART TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AMPLY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY...AND UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN LOW END CHANCES OF
SHOWERS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND FAIRLY GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS
IN THE RIDGES. AS SHEAR INCREASES AFTER THIS TIME...MID-LEVEL
RIDGING STARTS TO IMPINGE...AND DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR FINALLY
STARTS TO WORK INTO THE REGION...SHOWER CHANCES DWINDLE TO LESS
THAN MENTIONABLE BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK NOW LOOKS RATHER DRY...WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING TOWARD NORMAL AS SUNSHINE SHOULD FINALLY
MAKE A RETURN TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EWD PROGRESS OF THE MID-WEEK UPR LOW WITH EXPANDING RIDGE OVR THE
CNTRL CONUS SHOULD ENSURE A GENLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CLOSE TO
THE WEEK. TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO REPRESENT THE LONG TERM
PD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLDFRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AND
INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTS
AND DRIFTS SOUTH TUES LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER.
MVFR CIGS MUCH OF TUES...BUT COULD SEE IFR IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS
THAT PERSIST.

.AVIATION /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW
DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 202217
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
617 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAINY AND COOL THROUGH MID-WEEK WHEN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHIFTS EASTWARD. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EARLY EVENING UPDATE TO ADD CAT POPS FARTHER SOUTH TONIGHT BASED
ON RADAR TRENDS SHOWING BANDS OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING WELL INTO SOUTHERN
OHIO. ALSO SPEED UP TIMING FOR SHOWERS INTO RIDGES EARLY TONIGHT.
MODEST QPF ADDED. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES OR WINDS. PREVIOUS
DISCO BELOW.


SW TROF AND ATTENDANT VORT MAX EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY CURRENTLY
SWINGING THROUGH ERN INDIANA SOUTH OF THE SFC NEARING LAKE HURON.
MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION PRODUCING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF TROF AXIS
OVER WV AND SW PA WILL PUSH EAST TONIGHT. THOSE CLOUDS WILL BE
REPLACED BY LOWER CLOUDS THIS EVENING KEEPING TEMPS MODERATED.

RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN QUITE NUMEROUS TODAY...BUT LITTLE MORE
THAN VIRGA HAS BEEN REPORTED UP TO THIS POINT AS DRY AIR FROM THE
MID LEVELS DOWN ARE KEEPING ANY RAIN SHOWERS FROM REACHING THE
GROUND. RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SW TROF ARE SHOWING UP
OVER WRN OHIO AND ARE TIMED TO REACH OUR WRN PERIPHERY BY ABOUT
21Z. BY 00Z ALL OF THE NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE THE SW TROF AXIS
THROUGH ERN OH WITH RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE
WNW. DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND BETTER FORCING WILL REMAIN
CLOSER TO THE LOW NEAR LAKE ERIE...THUS WILL CONTINUE THE
CATEGORICAL POPS THERE. ALTHOUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
BEGINS TO OUTRUN THE TROF AXIS ACROSS OUR SOUTH...ENOUGH MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS NRN WV. WILL NOT DEVIATE
FROM THE LIKELY POPS.

TONIGHT THE SFC LOW IS PULLED SOUTH AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES AS
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO CUT-OFF. AS THIS HAPPENS...ABUNDANT LLVL
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA KEEPING CLOUDS AND RAIN IN THE
FORECAST. AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY PASSES TUES...THE SFC-H8 LOW CORE
SHIFTS EAST BRINGING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LLVL WIND FIELD.
WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS IN FOR THE SE RIDGES AS A RESULT. DRIEST
LOCATION IN THE CWA TUES LOOKS TO BE OVER ERN OHIO WHERE DRIER AIR
ALOFT BEGINS FEEDING INTO THE UPPER LOW WHICH MAY WORK TO SUPPRESS
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES
OVER THE AREA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE
MID-LEVEL COLD POOL BEGINS TO DEPART TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AMPLY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY...AND UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN LOW END CHANCES OF
SHOWERS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND FAIRLY GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS
IN THE RIDGES. AS SHEAR INCREASES AFTER THIS TIME...MID-LEVEL
RIDGING STARTS TO IMPINGE...AND DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR FINALLY
STARTS TO WORK INTO THE REGION...SHOWER CHANCES DWINDLE TO LESS
THAN MENTIONABLE BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK NOW LOOKS RATHER DRY...WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING TOWARD NORMAL AS SUNSHINE SHOULD FINALLY
MAKE A RETURN TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EWD PROGRESS OF THE MID-WEEK UPR LOW WITH EXPANDING RIDGE OVR THE
CNTRL CONUS SHOULD ENSURE A GENLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CLOSE TO
THE WEEK. TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO REPRESENT THE LONG TERM
PD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLDFRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AND
INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTS
AND DRIFTS SOUTH TUES LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER.
MVFR CIGS MUCH OF TUES...BUT COULD SEE IFR IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS
THAT PERSIST.

.AVIATION /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW
DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 202217
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
617 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAINY AND COOL THROUGH MID-WEEK WHEN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHIFTS EASTWARD. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EARLY EVENING UPDATE TO ADD CAT POPS FARTHER SOUTH TONIGHT BASED
ON RADAR TRENDS SHOWING BANDS OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING WELL INTO SOUTHERN
OHIO. ALSO SPEED UP TIMING FOR SHOWERS INTO RIDGES EARLY TONIGHT.
MODEST QPF ADDED. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES OR WINDS. PREVIOUS
DISCO BELOW.


SW TROF AND ATTENDANT VORT MAX EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY CURRENTLY
SWINGING THROUGH ERN INDIANA SOUTH OF THE SFC NEARING LAKE HURON.
MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION PRODUCING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF TROF AXIS
OVER WV AND SW PA WILL PUSH EAST TONIGHT. THOSE CLOUDS WILL BE
REPLACED BY LOWER CLOUDS THIS EVENING KEEPING TEMPS MODERATED.

RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN QUITE NUMEROUS TODAY...BUT LITTLE MORE
THAN VIRGA HAS BEEN REPORTED UP TO THIS POINT AS DRY AIR FROM THE
MID LEVELS DOWN ARE KEEPING ANY RAIN SHOWERS FROM REACHING THE
GROUND. RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SW TROF ARE SHOWING UP
OVER WRN OHIO AND ARE TIMED TO REACH OUR WRN PERIPHERY BY ABOUT
21Z. BY 00Z ALL OF THE NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE THE SW TROF AXIS
THROUGH ERN OH WITH RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE
WNW. DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND BETTER FORCING WILL REMAIN
CLOSER TO THE LOW NEAR LAKE ERIE...THUS WILL CONTINUE THE
CATEGORICAL POPS THERE. ALTHOUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
BEGINS TO OUTRUN THE TROF AXIS ACROSS OUR SOUTH...ENOUGH MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS NRN WV. WILL NOT DEVIATE
FROM THE LIKELY POPS.

TONIGHT THE SFC LOW IS PULLED SOUTH AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES AS
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO CUT-OFF. AS THIS HAPPENS...ABUNDANT LLVL
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA KEEPING CLOUDS AND RAIN IN THE
FORECAST. AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY PASSES TUES...THE SFC-H8 LOW CORE
SHIFTS EAST BRINGING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LLVL WIND FIELD.
WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS IN FOR THE SE RIDGES AS A RESULT. DRIEST
LOCATION IN THE CWA TUES LOOKS TO BE OVER ERN OHIO WHERE DRIER AIR
ALOFT BEGINS FEEDING INTO THE UPPER LOW WHICH MAY WORK TO SUPPRESS
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES
OVER THE AREA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE
MID-LEVEL COLD POOL BEGINS TO DEPART TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AMPLY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY...AND UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN LOW END CHANCES OF
SHOWERS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND FAIRLY GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS
IN THE RIDGES. AS SHEAR INCREASES AFTER THIS TIME...MID-LEVEL
RIDGING STARTS TO IMPINGE...AND DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR FINALLY
STARTS TO WORK INTO THE REGION...SHOWER CHANCES DWINDLE TO LESS
THAN MENTIONABLE BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK NOW LOOKS RATHER DRY...WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING TOWARD NORMAL AS SUNSHINE SHOULD FINALLY
MAKE A RETURN TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EWD PROGRESS OF THE MID-WEEK UPR LOW WITH EXPANDING RIDGE OVR THE
CNTRL CONUS SHOULD ENSURE A GENLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CLOSE TO
THE WEEK. TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO REPRESENT THE LONG TERM
PD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLDFRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AND
INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTS
AND DRIFTS SOUTH TUES LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER.
MVFR CIGS MUCH OF TUES...BUT COULD SEE IFR IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS
THAT PERSIST.

.AVIATION /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW
DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 202217
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
617 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAINY AND COOL THROUGH MID-WEEK WHEN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHIFTS EASTWARD. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EARLY EVENING UPDATE TO ADD CAT POPS FARTHER SOUTH TONIGHT BASED
ON RADAR TRENDS SHOWING BANDS OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING WELL INTO SOUTHERN
OHIO. ALSO SPEED UP TIMING FOR SHOWERS INTO RIDGES EARLY TONIGHT.
MODEST QPF ADDED. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES OR WINDS. PREVIOUS
DISCO BELOW.


SW TROF AND ATTENDANT VORT MAX EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY CURRENTLY
SWINGING THROUGH ERN INDIANA SOUTH OF THE SFC NEARING LAKE HURON.
MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION PRODUCING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF TROF AXIS
OVER WV AND SW PA WILL PUSH EAST TONIGHT. THOSE CLOUDS WILL BE
REPLACED BY LOWER CLOUDS THIS EVENING KEEPING TEMPS MODERATED.

RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN QUITE NUMEROUS TODAY...BUT LITTLE MORE
THAN VIRGA HAS BEEN REPORTED UP TO THIS POINT AS DRY AIR FROM THE
MID LEVELS DOWN ARE KEEPING ANY RAIN SHOWERS FROM REACHING THE
GROUND. RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SW TROF ARE SHOWING UP
OVER WRN OHIO AND ARE TIMED TO REACH OUR WRN PERIPHERY BY ABOUT
21Z. BY 00Z ALL OF THE NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE THE SW TROF AXIS
THROUGH ERN OH WITH RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE
WNW. DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND BETTER FORCING WILL REMAIN
CLOSER TO THE LOW NEAR LAKE ERIE...THUS WILL CONTINUE THE
CATEGORICAL POPS THERE. ALTHOUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
BEGINS TO OUTRUN THE TROF AXIS ACROSS OUR SOUTH...ENOUGH MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS NRN WV. WILL NOT DEVIATE
FROM THE LIKELY POPS.

TONIGHT THE SFC LOW IS PULLED SOUTH AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES AS
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO CUT-OFF. AS THIS HAPPENS...ABUNDANT LLVL
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA KEEPING CLOUDS AND RAIN IN THE
FORECAST. AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY PASSES TUES...THE SFC-H8 LOW CORE
SHIFTS EAST BRINGING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LLVL WIND FIELD.
WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS IN FOR THE SE RIDGES AS A RESULT. DRIEST
LOCATION IN THE CWA TUES LOOKS TO BE OVER ERN OHIO WHERE DRIER AIR
ALOFT BEGINS FEEDING INTO THE UPPER LOW WHICH MAY WORK TO SUPPRESS
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES
OVER THE AREA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE
MID-LEVEL COLD POOL BEGINS TO DEPART TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AMPLY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY...AND UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN LOW END CHANCES OF
SHOWERS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND FAIRLY GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS
IN THE RIDGES. AS SHEAR INCREASES AFTER THIS TIME...MID-LEVEL
RIDGING STARTS TO IMPINGE...AND DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR FINALLY
STARTS TO WORK INTO THE REGION...SHOWER CHANCES DWINDLE TO LESS
THAN MENTIONABLE BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK NOW LOOKS RATHER DRY...WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING TOWARD NORMAL AS SUNSHINE SHOULD FINALLY
MAKE A RETURN TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EWD PROGRESS OF THE MID-WEEK UPR LOW WITH EXPANDING RIDGE OVR THE
CNTRL CONUS SHOULD ENSURE A GENLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CLOSE TO
THE WEEK. TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO REPRESENT THE LONG TERM
PD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLDFRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AND
INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTS
AND DRIFTS SOUTH TUES LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER.
MVFR CIGS MUCH OF TUES...BUT COULD SEE IFR IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS
THAT PERSIST.

.AVIATION /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW
DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 202217
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
617 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAINY AND COOL THROUGH MID-WEEK WHEN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHIFTS EASTWARD. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EARLY EVENING UPDATE TO ADD CAT POPS FARTHER SOUTH TONIGHT BASED
ON RADAR TRENDS SHOWING BANDS OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING WELL INTO SOUTHERN
OHIO. ALSO SPEED UP TIMING FOR SHOWERS INTO RIDGES EARLY TONIGHT.
MODEST QPF ADDED. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES OR WINDS. PREVIOUS
DISCO BELOW.


SW TROF AND ATTENDANT VORT MAX EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY CURRENTLY
SWINGING THROUGH ERN INDIANA SOUTH OF THE SFC NEARING LAKE HURON.
MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION PRODUCING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF TROF AXIS
OVER WV AND SW PA WILL PUSH EAST TONIGHT. THOSE CLOUDS WILL BE
REPLACED BY LOWER CLOUDS THIS EVENING KEEPING TEMPS MODERATED.

RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN QUITE NUMEROUS TODAY...BUT LITTLE MORE
THAN VIRGA HAS BEEN REPORTED UP TO THIS POINT AS DRY AIR FROM THE
MID LEVELS DOWN ARE KEEPING ANY RAIN SHOWERS FROM REACHING THE
GROUND. RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SW TROF ARE SHOWING UP
OVER WRN OHIO AND ARE TIMED TO REACH OUR WRN PERIPHERY BY ABOUT
21Z. BY 00Z ALL OF THE NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE THE SW TROF AXIS
THROUGH ERN OH WITH RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE
WNW. DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND BETTER FORCING WILL REMAIN
CLOSER TO THE LOW NEAR LAKE ERIE...THUS WILL CONTINUE THE
CATEGORICAL POPS THERE. ALTHOUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
BEGINS TO OUTRUN THE TROF AXIS ACROSS OUR SOUTH...ENOUGH MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS NRN WV. WILL NOT DEVIATE
FROM THE LIKELY POPS.

TONIGHT THE SFC LOW IS PULLED SOUTH AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES AS
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO CUT-OFF. AS THIS HAPPENS...ABUNDANT LLVL
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA KEEPING CLOUDS AND RAIN IN THE
FORECAST. AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY PASSES TUES...THE SFC-H8 LOW CORE
SHIFTS EAST BRINGING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LLVL WIND FIELD.
WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS IN FOR THE SE RIDGES AS A RESULT. DRIEST
LOCATION IN THE CWA TUES LOOKS TO BE OVER ERN OHIO WHERE DRIER AIR
ALOFT BEGINS FEEDING INTO THE UPPER LOW WHICH MAY WORK TO SUPPRESS
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES
OVER THE AREA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE
MID-LEVEL COLD POOL BEGINS TO DEPART TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AMPLY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY...AND UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN LOW END CHANCES OF
SHOWERS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND FAIRLY GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS
IN THE RIDGES. AS SHEAR INCREASES AFTER THIS TIME...MID-LEVEL
RIDGING STARTS TO IMPINGE...AND DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR FINALLY
STARTS TO WORK INTO THE REGION...SHOWER CHANCES DWINDLE TO LESS
THAN MENTIONABLE BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK NOW LOOKS RATHER DRY...WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING TOWARD NORMAL AS SUNSHINE SHOULD FINALLY
MAKE A RETURN TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EWD PROGRESS OF THE MID-WEEK UPR LOW WITH EXPANDING RIDGE OVR THE
CNTRL CONUS SHOULD ENSURE A GENLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CLOSE TO
THE WEEK. TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO REPRESENT THE LONG TERM
PD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLDFRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AND
INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTS
AND DRIFTS SOUTH TUES LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER.
MVFR CIGS MUCH OF TUES...BUT COULD SEE IFR IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS
THAT PERSIST.

.AVIATION /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW
DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KAKQ 202000
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE THRU THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH A SFC COLD FRONT REACHING THE
SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS AROUND 12Z TUE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR AN
ISOLD SHOWER OVER OUR FAR NW ZONES...AND ALSO OVER THE NORTHERN
OBX...THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW OVERALL DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE TONIGHT (PW`S AOB 0.75")...SO WOULD BE HARD TO
GET MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN. OTW...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THRU TONIGHT WITH SKY CONDITIONS BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SW FLOW WILL BRING MILDER TEMPS THAN LAST
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 40S WEST TO LOW/MID 50S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLOW AMPLIFIES DURING THE SHORT TERM AS A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS
OVER ERN CANADA. ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVES SOUTH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VALLEY TUES THANKS TO A ~100 KT JET STREAK DIVING SWD
FROM CANADA. AS A RESULT...UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NE STATES LATE TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL
PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD TUES NIGHT INTO WED...LOCATING OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST LATE WED. WITH THE UPR LOW PIVOTING ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT...WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY NORTH/NE WHERE BEST UPWARD MOTION IS
ANTICIPATED. HAVE CHANCE (POPS 25-40%) ALONG AND NE OF A LINE FROM
LKU-OFP-MFV ON TUE...THEN BEST CHANCE (30-50%) MAINLY ALONG THE
VA COAST AND ONTO THE EASTERN SHORE TUE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...WILL
CARRY NO HIGHER THEN 20% POPS. HIGHS TUE IN THE UPPER 60S NW TO
MID 70S SE. LOWS TUE NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. MOSTLY
CLOUDY NORTH TO PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTH DURING THIE TIME.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE WED.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAIRLY DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS AS THE
TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WILL THEREFORE KEEP CHC POPS
LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND NE OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR WED...WITH
EMPHASIS ON THE NORTHERN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE (30-50% POPS).
COULD END UP BEING DRY OVER FAR SW ZONES. COOLER WED WITH HIGHS
ONLY 60-65.

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE WED NIGHT INTO THU...LOCATING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER CHANCES
BY THEN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SHORE (20%). DECREASING
CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. COOL AGAIN THU WITH HIGHS 60-65.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ERN US EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE MID 60S
TO AROUND 70 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S SUNDAY...AND POTENTIALLY 70-75 BY MONDAY. LOWS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR WX THROUGH TAF FCST PD. XPCG PDS OF MID LVL CLDNS (CIGS MNLY
10-15KFT) TNGT W/ SCT-BKN CLDNS (MNLY 5-10 KFT) TUE MRNG (LO LVLS
TOO DRY FOR PCPN). SSW WNDS 10-20KT INTO EARLY THIS EVE...THEN
DIMINISHING TNGT. WSW WNDS ON TUE AVGG 10-20 KT.

NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUE AFTN
THEN LINGERS OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING ALONG
WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS. WINDS FROM THE NW ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE WIND TO
REMAIN S/SW. EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH WIND SPEEDS
AVERAGING UP TO 15-20 KT ACRS NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...AND
GENERALLY 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE COAST LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY EVENTUAL SCA
CONDITIONS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OFFSHORE THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. WITH FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM
THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...AJZ








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 202000
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE THRU THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH A SFC COLD FRONT REACHING THE
SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS AROUND 12Z TUE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR AN
ISOLD SHOWER OVER OUR FAR NW ZONES...AND ALSO OVER THE NORTHERN
OBX...THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW OVERALL DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE TONIGHT (PW`S AOB 0.75")...SO WOULD BE HARD TO
GET MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN. OTW...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THRU TONIGHT WITH SKY CONDITIONS BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SW FLOW WILL BRING MILDER TEMPS THAN LAST
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 40S WEST TO LOW/MID 50S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLOW AMPLIFIES DURING THE SHORT TERM AS A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS
OVER ERN CANADA. ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVES SOUTH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VALLEY TUES THANKS TO A ~100 KT JET STREAK DIVING SWD
FROM CANADA. AS A RESULT...UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NE STATES LATE TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL
PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD TUES NIGHT INTO WED...LOCATING OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST LATE WED. WITH THE UPR LOW PIVOTING ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT...WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY NORTH/NE WHERE BEST UPWARD MOTION IS
ANTICIPATED. HAVE CHANCE (POPS 25-40%) ALONG AND NE OF A LINE FROM
LKU-OFP-MFV ON TUE...THEN BEST CHANCE (30-50%) MAINLY ALONG THE
VA COAST AND ONTO THE EASTERN SHORE TUE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...WILL
CARRY NO HIGHER THEN 20% POPS. HIGHS TUE IN THE UPPER 60S NW TO
MID 70S SE. LOWS TUE NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. MOSTLY
CLOUDY NORTH TO PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTH DURING THIE TIME.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE WED.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAIRLY DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS AS THE
TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WILL THEREFORE KEEP CHC POPS
LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND NE OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR WED...WITH
EMPHASIS ON THE NORTHERN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE (30-50% POPS).
COULD END UP BEING DRY OVER FAR SW ZONES. COOLER WED WITH HIGHS
ONLY 60-65.

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE WED NIGHT INTO THU...LOCATING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER CHANCES
BY THEN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SHORE (20%). DECREASING
CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. COOL AGAIN THU WITH HIGHS 60-65.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ERN US EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE MID 60S
TO AROUND 70 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S SUNDAY...AND POTENTIALLY 70-75 BY MONDAY. LOWS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR WX THROUGH TAF FCST PD. XPCG PDS OF MID LVL CLDNS (CIGS MNLY
10-15KFT) TNGT W/ SCT-BKN CLDNS (MNLY 5-10 KFT) TUE MRNG (LO LVLS
TOO DRY FOR PCPN). SSW WNDS 10-20KT INTO EARLY THIS EVE...THEN
DIMINISHING TNGT. WSW WNDS ON TUE AVGG 10-20 KT.

NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUE AFTN
THEN LINGERS OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING ALONG
WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS. WINDS FROM THE NW ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE WIND TO
REMAIN S/SW. EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH WIND SPEEDS
AVERAGING UP TO 15-20 KT ACRS NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...AND
GENERALLY 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE COAST LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY EVENTUAL SCA
CONDITIONS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OFFSHORE THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. WITH FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM
THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...AJZ









000
FXUS61 KPHI 201958
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
358 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LAKE HURON THIS AFTERNOON WILL DRIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD. IT IS FORECAST TO PASS OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD AROUND
THURSDAY NIGHT AND ARRIVING IN NOVA SCOTIA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWING FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR HAS BEEN SHOWING A LOT OF RETURNS THIS AFTERNOON
TO OUR WEST TIED TO THE THETA-E SURGE OCCURRING. THE MID-LEVELS
REMAINS VERY DRY AND SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSION VALUES ARE STILL
20 TO 25F SO BASICALLY A LOT OF VIRGA IS BEING SEEN. THE AIR MASS
CONTINUES TO MODIFY TONIGHT WITH DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LEAD IMPULSE, WITHIN THE LARGER GREAT
LAKES TROUGH, NEARS FROM THE WEST AS ITS SURFACE INFLECTION SLOWLY
DIVES INTO NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA LATE TONIGHT. WE CONTINUE
WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES STARTING EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE LOW APPROACHES WITH ITS WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL BALMY COMPARED TO THIS MORNINGS LOWS.
EXPECTING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER-40S IN MOST PLACES. A
BLEND OF THE MET/MAV WORKED BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A FILLING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTHWEST SLIDES
FURTHER SOUTH LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND BECOMES MORE BROAD. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A DRY SLOT SETTING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
OUR CWA, THOUGH THE EXACT PLACEMENT IS STILL SUSPECT. A BETTER
DEFINED AND STRONGER COASTAL LOW FORMS OFF THE DELMARVA LATE IN
THE DAY AND MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST...LOTS OF JET DYNAMICS
INVOLVED. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASES TO LIKELY DURING THE DAY
MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES, THOUGH STILL NOT
ENTIRELY SOLD ON A COMPLETELY DRY DAY ELSEWHERE SO WE CONTINUE THE
CHANCE POPS. NOT LOOKING AT A COMPLETE WASHOUT TOMORROW WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THE MOST PROBABLE. WE KEEP THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST, EVEN WITH STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FORMING, AS
THE BETTER DYNAMICS OFFSHORE COULD ROB INLAND AREAS OF ALL THE
LUSTER. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB WITH THE MODIFYING
AIR MASS AND SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDED FROM WESTERN HUDSON BAY, ACROSS
WESTERN ONTARIO TO THE WESTERN PART OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. A MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE LIFT
UNDER ITS LEFT FRONT QUADRANT TONIGHT OVER THE LAKE HURON
VICINITY. THE MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
WEST VIRGINIA ON TUESDAY EVENING AND IT SHOULD PASS OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FEATURE IS THEN
ANTICIPATED TO MEANDER OFF OUR COAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AND REACHING THE
WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON FRIDAY MORNING. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST
TO FOLLOW THE MID LEVEL LOW CLOSELY DURING THE PERIOD.

WE ARE EXPECTING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL SHOULD BE MOSTLY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING MID
LEVEL LOW. AS A RESULT, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL IN OUR REGION. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS IN OUR COASTAL
AREAS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
APPROACH AN INCH AT SOME LOCATIONS. ALSO, MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN
THAT AREA MAY TRANSLATE INTO ISOLATED LIGHTNING AND THUNDER.
REGARDLESS, THE EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY
FLOODING PROBLEMS.

AS THE LOW BEGINS TO PULL AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY
NIGHT, THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD END GRADUALLY IN OUR
AREA.

A COUPLE OF REINFORCING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES SHOULD DROP OVER
OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE COMING WEEKEND. THE SHORT WAVES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THEM.
THEREFORE, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION AT THAT TIME.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST SHOULD BUILD TOWARD OUR REGION
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH THE RAIN
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. READINGS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
FOR THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON - TONIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE THIS EVENING. SOME PATCHY
MVFR DRIZZLE/MIST IS POSSIBLE AT ABE/RDG EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT FOR MIST DEVELOPMENT.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARS FROM THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. WINDS START OFF LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH, MAYBE
SOUTHEAST, AND VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. KEEP
LOW CONFIDENCE ON SHOWER IMPACTS AT TERMINALS SO KEEP THE MENTION
OUT FOR THE TIME BEING. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN VFR
AND MVFR IN PERIODS OF RAIN.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS
MAY GUST INTO THE LOW-20 KNOT RANGE FOR A TIME AS SEAS REMAIN
AROUND 3 FEET.

TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO DECREASE AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVES IN OVERHEAD. SEAS REMAIN 2 TO 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER






000
FXUS61 KPHI 201958
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
358 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LAKE HURON THIS AFTERNOON WILL DRIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD. IT IS FORECAST TO PASS OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD AROUND
THURSDAY NIGHT AND ARRIVING IN NOVA SCOTIA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWING FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR HAS BEEN SHOWING A LOT OF RETURNS THIS AFTERNOON
TO OUR WEST TIED TO THE THETA-E SURGE OCCURRING. THE MID-LEVELS
REMAINS VERY DRY AND SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSION VALUES ARE STILL
20 TO 25F SO BASICALLY A LOT OF VIRGA IS BEING SEEN. THE AIR MASS
CONTINUES TO MODIFY TONIGHT WITH DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LEAD IMPULSE, WITHIN THE LARGER GREAT
LAKES TROUGH, NEARS FROM THE WEST AS ITS SURFACE INFLECTION SLOWLY
DIVES INTO NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA LATE TONIGHT. WE CONTINUE
WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES STARTING EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE LOW APPROACHES WITH ITS WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL BALMY COMPARED TO THIS MORNINGS LOWS.
EXPECTING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER-40S IN MOST PLACES. A
BLEND OF THE MET/MAV WORKED BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A FILLING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTHWEST SLIDES
FURTHER SOUTH LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND BECOMES MORE BROAD. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A DRY SLOT SETTING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
OUR CWA, THOUGH THE EXACT PLACEMENT IS STILL SUSPECT. A BETTER
DEFINED AND STRONGER COASTAL LOW FORMS OFF THE DELMARVA LATE IN
THE DAY AND MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST...LOTS OF JET DYNAMICS
INVOLVED. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASES TO LIKELY DURING THE DAY
MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES, THOUGH STILL NOT
ENTIRELY SOLD ON A COMPLETELY DRY DAY ELSEWHERE SO WE CONTINUE THE
CHANCE POPS. NOT LOOKING AT A COMPLETE WASHOUT TOMORROW WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THE MOST PROBABLE. WE KEEP THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST, EVEN WITH STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FORMING, AS
THE BETTER DYNAMICS OFFSHORE COULD ROB INLAND AREAS OF ALL THE
LUSTER. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB WITH THE MODIFYING
AIR MASS AND SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDED FROM WESTERN HUDSON BAY, ACROSS
WESTERN ONTARIO TO THE WESTERN PART OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. A MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE LIFT
UNDER ITS LEFT FRONT QUADRANT TONIGHT OVER THE LAKE HURON
VICINITY. THE MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
WEST VIRGINIA ON TUESDAY EVENING AND IT SHOULD PASS OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FEATURE IS THEN
ANTICIPATED TO MEANDER OFF OUR COAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AND REACHING THE
WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON FRIDAY MORNING. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST
TO FOLLOW THE MID LEVEL LOW CLOSELY DURING THE PERIOD.

WE ARE EXPECTING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL SHOULD BE MOSTLY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING MID
LEVEL LOW. AS A RESULT, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL IN OUR REGION. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS IN OUR COASTAL
AREAS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
APPROACH AN INCH AT SOME LOCATIONS. ALSO, MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN
THAT AREA MAY TRANSLATE INTO ISOLATED LIGHTNING AND THUNDER.
REGARDLESS, THE EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY
FLOODING PROBLEMS.

AS THE LOW BEGINS TO PULL AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY
NIGHT, THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD END GRADUALLY IN OUR
AREA.

A COUPLE OF REINFORCING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES SHOULD DROP OVER
OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE COMING WEEKEND. THE SHORT WAVES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THEM.
THEREFORE, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION AT THAT TIME.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST SHOULD BUILD TOWARD OUR REGION
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH THE RAIN
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. READINGS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
FOR THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON - TONIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE THIS EVENING. SOME PATCHY
MVFR DRIZZLE/MIST IS POSSIBLE AT ABE/RDG EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT FOR MIST DEVELOPMENT.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARS FROM THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. WINDS START OFF LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH, MAYBE
SOUTHEAST, AND VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. KEEP
LOW CONFIDENCE ON SHOWER IMPACTS AT TERMINALS SO KEEP THE MENTION
OUT FOR THE TIME BEING. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN VFR
AND MVFR IN PERIODS OF RAIN.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS
MAY GUST INTO THE LOW-20 KNOT RANGE FOR A TIME AS SEAS REMAIN
AROUND 3 FEET.

TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO DECREASE AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVES IN OVERHEAD. SEAS REMAIN 2 TO 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201833
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
233 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAINY AND COOL THROUGH MID-WEEK WHEN THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SW TROF AND ATTENDANT VORT MAX EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY CURRENTLY
SWINGING THROUGH ERN INDIANA SOUTH OF THE SFC NEARING LAKE HURON.
MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION PRODUCING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF TROF AXIS
OVER WV AND SW PA WILL PUSH EAST TONIGHT. THOSE CLOUDS WILL BE
REPLACED BY LOWER CLOUDS THIS EVENING KEEPING TEMPS MODERATED.

RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN QUITE NUMEROUS TODAY...BUT LITTLE MORE
THAN VIRGA HAS BEEN REPORTED UP TO THIS POINT AS DRY AIR FROM THE
MID LEVELS DOWN ARE KEEPING ANY RAIN SHOWERS FROM REACHING THE
GROUND. RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SW TROF ARE SHOWING UP
OVER WRN OHIO AND ARE TIMED TO REACH OUR WRN PERIPHERY BY ABOUT
21Z. BY 00Z ALL OF THE NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE THE SW TROF AXIS
THROUGH ERN OH WITH RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE
WNW. DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND BETTER FORCING WILL REMAIN
CLOSER TO THE LOW NEAR LAKE ERIE...THUS WILL CONTINUE THE
CATEGORICAL POPS THERE. ALTHOUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
BEGINS TO OUTRUN THE TROF AXIS ACROSS OUR SOUTH...ENOUGH MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS NRN WV. WILL NOT DEVIATE
FROM THE LIKELY POPS.

TONIGHT THE SFC LOW IS PULLED SOUTH AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES AS
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO CUT-OFF. AS THIS HAPPENS...ABUNDANT LLVL
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA KEEPING CLOUDS AND RAIN IN THE
FORECAST. AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY PASSES TUES...THE SFC-H8 LOW CORE
SHIFTS EAST BRINGING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LLVL WIND FIELD.
WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS IN FOR THE SE RIDGES AS A RESULT. DRIEST
LOCATION IN THE CWA TUES LOOKS TO BE OVER ERN OHIO WHERE DRIER AIR
ALOFT BEGINS FEEDING INTO THE UPPER LOW WHICH MAY WORK TO SUPPRESS
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES
OVER THE AREA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE
MID-LEVEL COLD POOL BEGINS TO DEPART TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AMPLY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY...AND UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN LOW END CHANCES OF
SHOWERS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND FAIRLY GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS
IN THE RIDGES. AS SHEAR INCREASES AFTER THIS TIME...MID-LEVEL
RIDGING STARTS TO IMPINGE...AND DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR FINALLY
STARTS TO WORK INTO THE REGION...SHOWER CHANCES DWINDLE TO LESS
THAN MENTIONABLE BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK NOW LOOKS RATHER DRY...WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING TOWARD NORMAL AS SUNSHINE SHOULD FINALLY
MAKE A RETURN TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. FRIES


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EWD PROGRESS OF THE MID-WEEK UPR LOW WITH EXPANDING RIDGE OVR THE
CNTRL CONUS SHOULD ENSURE A GENLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CLOSE TO
THE WEEK. TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO REPRESENT THE LONG TERM
PD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLDFRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AND
INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTS
AND DRIFTS SOUTH TUES LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER.
MVFR CIGS MUCH OF TUES...BUT COULD SEE IFR IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS
THAT PERSIST.

.AVIATION /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW
DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201828
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
228 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAINY AND COOL THROUGH MID-WEEK WHEN THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS
EASTWARD. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SW TROF AND ATTENDANT VORT MAX EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY CURRENTLY
SWINGING THROUGH ERN INDIANA SOUTH OF THE SFC NEARING LAKE HURON.
MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION PRODUCING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF TROF AXIS
OVER WV AND SW PA WILL PUSH EAST TONIGHT. THOSE CLOUDS WILL BE
REPLACED BY LOWER CLOUDS THIS EVENING KEEPING TEMPS MODERATED.

RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN QUITE NUMEROUS TODAY...BUT LITTLE MORE
THAN VIRGA HAS BEEN REPORTED UP TO THIS POINT AS DRY AIR FROM THE
MID LEVELS DOWN ARE KEEPING ANY RAIN SHOWERS FROM REACHING THE
GROUND. RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SW TROF ARE SHOWING UP
OVER WRN OHIO AND ARE TIMED TO REACH OUR WRN PERIPHERY BY ABOUT
21Z. BY 00Z ALL OF THE NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE THE SW TROF AXIS
THROUGH ERN OH WITH RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE
WNW. DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND BETTER FORCING WILL REMAIN
CLOSER TO THE LOW NEAR LAKE ERIE...THUS WILL CONTINUE THE
CATEGORICAL POPS THERE. ALTHOUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
BEGINS TO OUTRUN THE TROF AXIS ACROSS OUR SOUTH...ENOUGH MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS NRN WV. WILL NOT DEVIATE
FROM THE LIKELY POPS.

TONIGHT THE SFC LOW IS PULLED SOUTH AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES AS
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO CUT-OFF. AS THIS HAPPENS...ABUNDANT LLVL
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA KEEPING CLOUDS AND RAIN IN THE
FORECAST. AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY PASSES TUES...THE SFC-H8 LOW CORE
SHIFTS EAST BRINGING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LLVL WIND FIELD.
WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS IN FOR THE SE RIDGES AS A RESULT. DRIEST
LOCATION IN THE CWA TUES LOOKS TO BE OVER ERN OHIO WHERE DRIER AIR
ALOFT BEGINS FEEDING INTO THE UPPER LOW WHICH MAY WORK TO SUPPRESS
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A JET STREAK MOVG THROUGH THE WRN FLANK OF THE EWD SHIFT UPR TROF
IS PROGGED TO CARVE A CUTOFF LOW OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION BY
LATE TUESDAY. COOLING MID LVLS WITH THAT SYSTEM WL LOWER CONVECTIVE
THRESHOLDS AND SPPRT SHWR ACTIVITY THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH PARTICULAR
EMPHASIS OVR UPSLOPE REGIONS TO THE N AND E OF PITTSBURGH.

BY THURSDAY...MDL WORLD PROJECTS SUFFICIENT COASTAL DVLPMNT/DEEPENING
TO DIMINISH POPS OVR THE IMMEDIATE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SHRTWV/VORT
PROJECTIONS THROUGH THE WRN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM IS MINIMAL...SO
HAVE MAINTAINED AT LEAST SLGT POPS OVR THE RIDGES THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EWD PROGRESS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR LOW WITH EXPANDING RIDGE OVR
THE CNTRL CONUS SHOULD ENSURE A GENLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CLOSE
TO THE WEEK. TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO REPRESENT THE LONG TERM
PD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLDFRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AND
INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTS
AND DRIFTS SOUTH TUES LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER.
MVFR CIGS MUCH OF TUES...BUT COULD SEE IFR IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS
THAT PERSIST.

.AVIATION /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW
DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201828
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
228 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAINY AND COOL THROUGH MID-WEEK WHEN THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS
EASTWARD. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SW TROF AND ATTENDANT VORT MAX EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY CURRENTLY
SWINGING THROUGH ERN INDIANA SOUTH OF THE SFC NEARING LAKE HURON.
MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION PRODUCING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF TROF AXIS
OVER WV AND SW PA WILL PUSH EAST TONIGHT. THOSE CLOUDS WILL BE
REPLACED BY LOWER CLOUDS THIS EVENING KEEPING TEMPS MODERATED.

RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN QUITE NUMEROUS TODAY...BUT LITTLE MORE
THAN VIRGA HAS BEEN REPORTED UP TO THIS POINT AS DRY AIR FROM THE
MID LEVELS DOWN ARE KEEPING ANY RAIN SHOWERS FROM REACHING THE
GROUND. RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SW TROF ARE SHOWING UP
OVER WRN OHIO AND ARE TIMED TO REACH OUR WRN PERIPHERY BY ABOUT
21Z. BY 00Z ALL OF THE NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE THE SW TROF AXIS
THROUGH ERN OH WITH RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE
WNW. DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND BETTER FORCING WILL REMAIN
CLOSER TO THE LOW NEAR LAKE ERIE...THUS WILL CONTINUE THE
CATEGORICAL POPS THERE. ALTHOUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
BEGINS TO OUTRUN THE TROF AXIS ACROSS OUR SOUTH...ENOUGH MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS NRN WV. WILL NOT DEVIATE
FROM THE LIKELY POPS.

TONIGHT THE SFC LOW IS PULLED SOUTH AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES AS
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO CUT-OFF. AS THIS HAPPENS...ABUNDANT LLVL
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA KEEPING CLOUDS AND RAIN IN THE
FORECAST. AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY PASSES TUES...THE SFC-H8 LOW CORE
SHIFTS EAST BRINGING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LLVL WIND FIELD.
WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS IN FOR THE SE RIDGES AS A RESULT. DRIEST
LOCATION IN THE CWA TUES LOOKS TO BE OVER ERN OHIO WHERE DRIER AIR
ALOFT BEGINS FEEDING INTO THE UPPER LOW WHICH MAY WORK TO SUPPRESS
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A JET STREAK MOVG THROUGH THE WRN FLANK OF THE EWD SHIFT UPR TROF
IS PROGGED TO CARVE A CUTOFF LOW OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION BY
LATE TUESDAY. COOLING MID LVLS WITH THAT SYSTEM WL LOWER CONVECTIVE
THRESHOLDS AND SPPRT SHWR ACTIVITY THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH PARTICULAR
EMPHASIS OVR UPSLOPE REGIONS TO THE N AND E OF PITTSBURGH.

BY THURSDAY...MDL WORLD PROJECTS SUFFICIENT COASTAL DVLPMNT/DEEPENING
TO DIMINISH POPS OVR THE IMMEDIATE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SHRTWV/VORT
PROJECTIONS THROUGH THE WRN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM IS MINIMAL...SO
HAVE MAINTAINED AT LEAST SLGT POPS OVR THE RIDGES THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EWD PROGRESS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR LOW WITH EXPANDING RIDGE OVR
THE CNTRL CONUS SHOULD ENSURE A GENLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CLOSE
TO THE WEEK. TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO REPRESENT THE LONG TERM
PD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLDFRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AND
INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTS
AND DRIFTS SOUTH TUES LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER.
MVFR CIGS MUCH OF TUES...BUT COULD SEE IFR IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS
THAT PERSIST.

.AVIATION /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW
DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201828
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
228 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAINY AND COOL THROUGH MID-WEEK WHEN THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS
EASTWARD. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SW TROF AND ATTENDANT VORT MAX EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY CURRENTLY
SWINGING THROUGH ERN INDIANA SOUTH OF THE SFC NEARING LAKE HURON.
MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION PRODUCING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF TROF AXIS
OVER WV AND SW PA WILL PUSH EAST TONIGHT. THOSE CLOUDS WILL BE
REPLACED BY LOWER CLOUDS THIS EVENING KEEPING TEMPS MODERATED.

RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN QUITE NUMEROUS TODAY...BUT LITTLE MORE
THAN VIRGA HAS BEEN REPORTED UP TO THIS POINT AS DRY AIR FROM THE
MID LEVELS DOWN ARE KEEPING ANY RAIN SHOWERS FROM REACHING THE
GROUND. RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SW TROF ARE SHOWING UP
OVER WRN OHIO AND ARE TIMED TO REACH OUR WRN PERIPHERY BY ABOUT
21Z. BY 00Z ALL OF THE NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE THE SW TROF AXIS
THROUGH ERN OH WITH RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE
WNW. DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND BETTER FORCING WILL REMAIN
CLOSER TO THE LOW NEAR LAKE ERIE...THUS WILL CONTINUE THE
CATEGORICAL POPS THERE. ALTHOUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
BEGINS TO OUTRUN THE TROF AXIS ACROSS OUR SOUTH...ENOUGH MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS NRN WV. WILL NOT DEVIATE
FROM THE LIKELY POPS.

TONIGHT THE SFC LOW IS PULLED SOUTH AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES AS
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO CUT-OFF. AS THIS HAPPENS...ABUNDANT LLVL
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA KEEPING CLOUDS AND RAIN IN THE
FORECAST. AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY PASSES TUES...THE SFC-H8 LOW CORE
SHIFTS EAST BRINGING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LLVL WIND FIELD.
WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS IN FOR THE SE RIDGES AS A RESULT. DRIEST
LOCATION IN THE CWA TUES LOOKS TO BE OVER ERN OHIO WHERE DRIER AIR
ALOFT BEGINS FEEDING INTO THE UPPER LOW WHICH MAY WORK TO SUPPRESS
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A JET STREAK MOVG THROUGH THE WRN FLANK OF THE EWD SHIFT UPR TROF
IS PROGGED TO CARVE A CUTOFF LOW OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION BY
LATE TUESDAY. COOLING MID LVLS WITH THAT SYSTEM WL LOWER CONVECTIVE
THRESHOLDS AND SPPRT SHWR ACTIVITY THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH PARTICULAR
EMPHASIS OVR UPSLOPE REGIONS TO THE N AND E OF PITTSBURGH.

BY THURSDAY...MDL WORLD PROJECTS SUFFICIENT COASTAL DVLPMNT/DEEPENING
TO DIMINISH POPS OVR THE IMMEDIATE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SHRTWV/VORT
PROJECTIONS THROUGH THE WRN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM IS MINIMAL...SO
HAVE MAINTAINED AT LEAST SLGT POPS OVR THE RIDGES THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EWD PROGRESS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR LOW WITH EXPANDING RIDGE OVR
THE CNTRL CONUS SHOULD ENSURE A GENLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CLOSE
TO THE WEEK. TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO REPRESENT THE LONG TERM
PD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLDFRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AND
INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTS
AND DRIFTS SOUTH TUES LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER.
MVFR CIGS MUCH OF TUES...BUT COULD SEE IFR IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS
THAT PERSIST.

.AVIATION /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW
DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201828
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
228 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAINY AND COOL THROUGH MID-WEEK WHEN THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS
EASTWARD. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SW TROF AND ATTENDANT VORT MAX EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY CURRENTLY
SWINGING THROUGH ERN INDIANA SOUTH OF THE SFC NEARING LAKE HURON.
MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION PRODUCING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF TROF AXIS
OVER WV AND SW PA WILL PUSH EAST TONIGHT. THOSE CLOUDS WILL BE
REPLACED BY LOWER CLOUDS THIS EVENING KEEPING TEMPS MODERATED.

RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN QUITE NUMEROUS TODAY...BUT LITTLE MORE
THAN VIRGA HAS BEEN REPORTED UP TO THIS POINT AS DRY AIR FROM THE
MID LEVELS DOWN ARE KEEPING ANY RAIN SHOWERS FROM REACHING THE
GROUND. RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SW TROF ARE SHOWING UP
OVER WRN OHIO AND ARE TIMED TO REACH OUR WRN PERIPHERY BY ABOUT
21Z. BY 00Z ALL OF THE NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE THE SW TROF AXIS
THROUGH ERN OH WITH RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE
WNW. DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND BETTER FORCING WILL REMAIN
CLOSER TO THE LOW NEAR LAKE ERIE...THUS WILL CONTINUE THE
CATEGORICAL POPS THERE. ALTHOUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
BEGINS TO OUTRUN THE TROF AXIS ACROSS OUR SOUTH...ENOUGH MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS NRN WV. WILL NOT DEVIATE
FROM THE LIKELY POPS.

TONIGHT THE SFC LOW IS PULLED SOUTH AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES AS
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO CUT-OFF. AS THIS HAPPENS...ABUNDANT LLVL
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA KEEPING CLOUDS AND RAIN IN THE
FORECAST. AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY PASSES TUES...THE SFC-H8 LOW CORE
SHIFTS EAST BRINGING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LLVL WIND FIELD.
WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS IN FOR THE SE RIDGES AS A RESULT. DRIEST
LOCATION IN THE CWA TUES LOOKS TO BE OVER ERN OHIO WHERE DRIER AIR
ALOFT BEGINS FEEDING INTO THE UPPER LOW WHICH MAY WORK TO SUPPRESS
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A JET STREAK MOVG THROUGH THE WRN FLANK OF THE EWD SHIFT UPR TROF
IS PROGGED TO CARVE A CUTOFF LOW OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION BY
LATE TUESDAY. COOLING MID LVLS WITH THAT SYSTEM WL LOWER CONVECTIVE
THRESHOLDS AND SPPRT SHWR ACTIVITY THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH PARTICULAR
EMPHASIS OVR UPSLOPE REGIONS TO THE N AND E OF PITTSBURGH.

BY THURSDAY...MDL WORLD PROJECTS SUFFICIENT COASTAL DVLPMNT/DEEPENING
TO DIMINISH POPS OVR THE IMMEDIATE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SHRTWV/VORT
PROJECTIONS THROUGH THE WRN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM IS MINIMAL...SO
HAVE MAINTAINED AT LEAST SLGT POPS OVR THE RIDGES THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EWD PROGRESS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR LOW WITH EXPANDING RIDGE OVR
THE CNTRL CONUS SHOULD ENSURE A GENLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CLOSE
TO THE WEEK. TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO REPRESENT THE LONG TERM
PD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLDFRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AND
INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTS
AND DRIFTS SOUTH TUES LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER.
MVFR CIGS MUCH OF TUES...BUT COULD SEE IFR IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS
THAT PERSIST.

.AVIATION /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW
DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KLWX 201827
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
227 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST INTO
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER EASTERN VA/NC THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
AND UPPER LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...WITH A TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN OHIO
VALLEY. BOTH AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT RETURNS HAVE MOVED INTO
THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...AND ISOLATED RAIN HAS BEEN NOTED ON
SURFACE OBS OVER ERN WV. WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS AND
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 10-15 DEGREES...RAIN WILL HAVE
DIFFICULTY MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. FCST CALLS FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS INITIALLY...SPREADING EWD INTO
THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE I-95 CORRIDOR
BY THIS EVENING. ANY RAIN SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WITH
LIKELY JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ACCUMULATION FOR THOSE
AREAS THAT DO SEE RAIN.

IN TERMS OF TEMPS AND WINDS...HIGHS LATE THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY IN
THE 60S UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH SOME GUSTS TO 2O MPH. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT TONIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 50 ALONG AND EAST OF
I-95...AND IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO PA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WV/MD/VA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH
SOME INSTABILITY AND PERIODS OF VORTICITY ADVECTION...POTENTIAL
FOR SCATTERED RAIN/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE.

TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS
PRIMARILY IN THE 50S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S AGAIN...AND
AROUND 50 IN URBAN AREAS AND BY CHESAPEAKE BAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OCCLUDED AND STRENGTHEN NEAR
THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN DUE TO BAROCLINIC ENHANCEMENT AS
IT MOVES OVER RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST DURING THIS TIME. POPS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS STORMS PRECIP SHIELDS SLOWLY
STAGGERS NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE LOW. WE SHOULD SEE A RESPECTABLE QPF
GRADIENT WITH THE AREAS ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE BAY RECEIVING
ONLY A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL WHILE LOCATIONS ON
THE THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WILL SEE SIGNIFICANTLY MORE DUE TO THEIR
PROXIMITY OT THE LOW.

THE MAJOR FORECAST CHALLENGE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW IS THE
UPSLOPE PRECIP THREAT. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ALONG THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS WILL SEE LOW TEMPS THAT MAY DIP INTO THE MID 30S WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND GIVEN THE FETCH OF THE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES UPSTREAM OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT THE OPTION TO INCLUDE SNOW AS
A PRECIP TYPE WAS TEMPTING. BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE LAYER OF
ABOVE-FREEZING AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE A BIT TOO THICK FOR ANY
SNOWFALL. THIS MAY CHANGE IN UPCOMING FORECASTS AS CONFIDENCE IN LOW
TEMPS INCREASES...BUT EVEN IF A FEW FLAKES DO FALL NO ACCUMULATION
WILL OCCUR.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL NOSE
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE BEAUTIFUL FALL DAYS WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE MID-60S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WORKWEEK AND OUR NEXT
THREAT FOR ADVERSE WEATHER SHOULD NOT PRESENT ITSELF UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH RETURN
SLY/SWLY FLOW GUSTING UP TO 18 KT THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY. PERIODIC SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT THIS TIME.
LIGHT W WINDS TUESDAY.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF AVIATION HAZARDS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA IN EFFECT FOR GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. GUSTS OVER MOST ZONES
WILL DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SCA EXPIRES
AT 8 PM FOR MOST ZONES...EXCEPT FOR THE MD CHES BAY SOUTH OF POOLES
ISLAND AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC WHERE SOUTHERLY CHANNELING IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL 2 AM. WLY FLOW TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. LIGHT S WINDS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT...TRENDING TOWARDS THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY NW DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS JUST OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY ALSO BE NEEDED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AS BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS FILL IN BEHIND LOW PRESSURE
DEPARTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.


&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES BACK ON THE RISE...APPROACHING 1 FT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
UNDER SOUTHERLY WINDS. FORECASTS FOR WASHINGTON
CHANNEL...BALTIMORE AND ANNAPOLIS SHOW LIKELIHOOD TO REACH ACTION
STAGES IN THE NEXT TWO HIGH TIDE CYCLES LATE TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME FALL SHORT OF MINOR INUNDATION.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>533-535-536-538>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KCS
NEAR TERM...KCS
SHORT TERM...KCS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...KCS/CEB
MARINE...KCS/CEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KCS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 201827
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
227 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST INTO
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER EASTERN VA/NC THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
AND UPPER LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...WITH A TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN OHIO
VALLEY. BOTH AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT RETURNS HAVE MOVED INTO
THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...AND ISOLATED RAIN HAS BEEN NOTED ON
SURFACE OBS OVER ERN WV. WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS AND
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 10-15 DEGREES...RAIN WILL HAVE
DIFFICULTY MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. FCST CALLS FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS INITIALLY...SPREADING EWD INTO
THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE I-95 CORRIDOR
BY THIS EVENING. ANY RAIN SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WITH
LIKELY JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ACCUMULATION FOR THOSE
AREAS THAT DO SEE RAIN.

IN TERMS OF TEMPS AND WINDS...HIGHS LATE THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY IN
THE 60S UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH SOME GUSTS TO 2O MPH. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT TONIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 50 ALONG AND EAST OF
I-95...AND IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO PA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WV/MD/VA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH
SOME INSTABILITY AND PERIODS OF VORTICITY ADVECTION...POTENTIAL
FOR SCATTERED RAIN/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE.

TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS
PRIMARILY IN THE 50S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S AGAIN...AND
AROUND 50 IN URBAN AREAS AND BY CHESAPEAKE BAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OCCLUDED AND STRENGTHEN NEAR
THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN DUE TO BAROCLINIC ENHANCEMENT AS
IT MOVES OVER RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST DURING THIS TIME. POPS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS STORMS PRECIP SHIELDS SLOWLY
STAGGERS NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE LOW. WE SHOULD SEE A RESPECTABLE QPF
GRADIENT WITH THE AREAS ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE BAY RECEIVING
ONLY A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL WHILE LOCATIONS ON
THE THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WILL SEE SIGNIFICANTLY MORE DUE TO THEIR
PROXIMITY OT THE LOW.

THE MAJOR FORECAST CHALLENGE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW IS THE
UPSLOPE PRECIP THREAT. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ALONG THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS WILL SEE LOW TEMPS THAT MAY DIP INTO THE MID 30S WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND GIVEN THE FETCH OF THE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES UPSTREAM OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT THE OPTION TO INCLUDE SNOW AS
A PRECIP TYPE WAS TEMPTING. BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE LAYER OF
ABOVE-FREEZING AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE A BIT TOO THICK FOR ANY
SNOWFALL. THIS MAY CHANGE IN UPCOMING FORECASTS AS CONFIDENCE IN LOW
TEMPS INCREASES...BUT EVEN IF A FEW FLAKES DO FALL NO ACCUMULATION
WILL OCCUR.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL NOSE
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE BEAUTIFUL FALL DAYS WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE MID-60S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WORKWEEK AND OUR NEXT
THREAT FOR ADVERSE WEATHER SHOULD NOT PRESENT ITSELF UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH RETURN
SLY/SWLY FLOW GUSTING UP TO 18 KT THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY. PERIODIC SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT THIS TIME.
LIGHT W WINDS TUESDAY.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF AVIATION HAZARDS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA IN EFFECT FOR GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. GUSTS OVER MOST ZONES
WILL DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SCA EXPIRES
AT 8 PM FOR MOST ZONES...EXCEPT FOR THE MD CHES BAY SOUTH OF POOLES
ISLAND AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC WHERE SOUTHERLY CHANNELING IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL 2 AM. WLY FLOW TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. LIGHT S WINDS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT...TRENDING TOWARDS THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY NW DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS JUST OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY ALSO BE NEEDED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AS BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS FILL IN BEHIND LOW PRESSURE
DEPARTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.


&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES BACK ON THE RISE...APPROACHING 1 FT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
UNDER SOUTHERLY WINDS. FORECASTS FOR WASHINGTON
CHANNEL...BALTIMORE AND ANNAPOLIS SHOW LIKELIHOOD TO REACH ACTION
STAGES IN THE NEXT TWO HIGH TIDE CYCLES LATE TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME FALL SHORT OF MINOR INUNDATION.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>533-535-536-538>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KCS
NEAR TERM...KCS
SHORT TERM...KCS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...KCS/CEB
MARINE...KCS/CEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KCS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 201827
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
227 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST INTO
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER EASTERN VA/NC THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
AND UPPER LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...WITH A TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN OHIO
VALLEY. BOTH AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT RETURNS HAVE MOVED INTO
THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...AND ISOLATED RAIN HAS BEEN NOTED ON
SURFACE OBS OVER ERN WV. WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS AND
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 10-15 DEGREES...RAIN WILL HAVE
DIFFICULTY MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. FCST CALLS FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS INITIALLY...SPREADING EWD INTO
THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE I-95 CORRIDOR
BY THIS EVENING. ANY RAIN SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WITH
LIKELY JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ACCUMULATION FOR THOSE
AREAS THAT DO SEE RAIN.

IN TERMS OF TEMPS AND WINDS...HIGHS LATE THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY IN
THE 60S UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH SOME GUSTS TO 2O MPH. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT TONIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 50 ALONG AND EAST OF
I-95...AND IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO PA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WV/MD/VA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH
SOME INSTABILITY AND PERIODS OF VORTICITY ADVECTION...POTENTIAL
FOR SCATTERED RAIN/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE.

TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS
PRIMARILY IN THE 50S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S AGAIN...AND
AROUND 50 IN URBAN AREAS AND BY CHESAPEAKE BAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OCCLUDED AND STRENGTHEN NEAR
THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN DUE TO BAROCLINIC ENHANCEMENT AS
IT MOVES OVER RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST DURING THIS TIME. POPS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS STORMS PRECIP SHIELDS SLOWLY
STAGGERS NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE LOW. WE SHOULD SEE A RESPECTABLE QPF
GRADIENT WITH THE AREAS ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE BAY RECEIVING
ONLY A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL WHILE LOCATIONS ON
THE THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WILL SEE SIGNIFICANTLY MORE DUE TO THEIR
PROXIMITY OT THE LOW.

THE MAJOR FORECAST CHALLENGE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW IS THE
UPSLOPE PRECIP THREAT. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ALONG THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS WILL SEE LOW TEMPS THAT MAY DIP INTO THE MID 30S WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND GIVEN THE FETCH OF THE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES UPSTREAM OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT THE OPTION TO INCLUDE SNOW AS
A PRECIP TYPE WAS TEMPTING. BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE LAYER OF
ABOVE-FREEZING AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE A BIT TOO THICK FOR ANY
SNOWFALL. THIS MAY CHANGE IN UPCOMING FORECASTS AS CONFIDENCE IN LOW
TEMPS INCREASES...BUT EVEN IF A FEW FLAKES DO FALL NO ACCUMULATION
WILL OCCUR.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL NOSE
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE BEAUTIFUL FALL DAYS WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE MID-60S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WORKWEEK AND OUR NEXT
THREAT FOR ADVERSE WEATHER SHOULD NOT PRESENT ITSELF UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH RETURN
SLY/SWLY FLOW GUSTING UP TO 18 KT THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY. PERIODIC SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT THIS TIME.
LIGHT W WINDS TUESDAY.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF AVIATION HAZARDS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA IN EFFECT FOR GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. GUSTS OVER MOST ZONES
WILL DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SCA EXPIRES
AT 8 PM FOR MOST ZONES...EXCEPT FOR THE MD CHES BAY SOUTH OF POOLES
ISLAND AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC WHERE SOUTHERLY CHANNELING IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL 2 AM. WLY FLOW TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. LIGHT S WINDS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT...TRENDING TOWARDS THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY NW DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS JUST OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY ALSO BE NEEDED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AS BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS FILL IN BEHIND LOW PRESSURE
DEPARTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.


&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES BACK ON THE RISE...APPROACHING 1 FT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
UNDER SOUTHERLY WINDS. FORECASTS FOR WASHINGTON
CHANNEL...BALTIMORE AND ANNAPOLIS SHOW LIKELIHOOD TO REACH ACTION
STAGES IN THE NEXT TWO HIGH TIDE CYCLES LATE TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME FALL SHORT OF MINOR INUNDATION.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>533-535-536-538>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KCS
NEAR TERM...KCS
SHORT TERM...KCS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...KCS/CEB
MARINE...KCS/CEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KCS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 201827
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
227 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST INTO
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER EASTERN VA/NC THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
AND UPPER LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...WITH A TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN OHIO
VALLEY. BOTH AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT RETURNS HAVE MOVED INTO
THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...AND ISOLATED RAIN HAS BEEN NOTED ON
SURFACE OBS OVER ERN WV. WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS AND
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 10-15 DEGREES...RAIN WILL HAVE
DIFFICULTY MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. FCST CALLS FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS INITIALLY...SPREADING EWD INTO
THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE I-95 CORRIDOR
BY THIS EVENING. ANY RAIN SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WITH
LIKELY JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ACCUMULATION FOR THOSE
AREAS THAT DO SEE RAIN.

IN TERMS OF TEMPS AND WINDS...HIGHS LATE THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY IN
THE 60S UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH SOME GUSTS TO 2O MPH. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT TONIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 50 ALONG AND EAST OF
I-95...AND IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO PA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WV/MD/VA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH
SOME INSTABILITY AND PERIODS OF VORTICITY ADVECTION...POTENTIAL
FOR SCATTERED RAIN/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE.

TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS
PRIMARILY IN THE 50S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S AGAIN...AND
AROUND 50 IN URBAN AREAS AND BY CHESAPEAKE BAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OCCLUDED AND STRENGTHEN NEAR
THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN DUE TO BAROCLINIC ENHANCEMENT AS
IT MOVES OVER RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST DURING THIS TIME. POPS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS STORMS PRECIP SHIELDS SLOWLY
STAGGERS NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE LOW. WE SHOULD SEE A RESPECTABLE QPF
GRADIENT WITH THE AREAS ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE BAY RECEIVING
ONLY A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL WHILE LOCATIONS ON
THE THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WILL SEE SIGNIFICANTLY MORE DUE TO THEIR
PROXIMITY OT THE LOW.

THE MAJOR FORECAST CHALLENGE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW IS THE
UPSLOPE PRECIP THREAT. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ALONG THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS WILL SEE LOW TEMPS THAT MAY DIP INTO THE MID 30S WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND GIVEN THE FETCH OF THE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES UPSTREAM OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT THE OPTION TO INCLUDE SNOW AS
A PRECIP TYPE WAS TEMPTING. BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE LAYER OF
ABOVE-FREEZING AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE A BIT TOO THICK FOR ANY
SNOWFALL. THIS MAY CHANGE IN UPCOMING FORECASTS AS CONFIDENCE IN LOW
TEMPS INCREASES...BUT EVEN IF A FEW FLAKES DO FALL NO ACCUMULATION
WILL OCCUR.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL NOSE
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE BEAUTIFUL FALL DAYS WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE MID-60S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WORKWEEK AND OUR NEXT
THREAT FOR ADVERSE WEATHER SHOULD NOT PRESENT ITSELF UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH RETURN
SLY/SWLY FLOW GUSTING UP TO 18 KT THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY. PERIODIC SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT THIS TIME.
LIGHT W WINDS TUESDAY.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF AVIATION HAZARDS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA IN EFFECT FOR GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. GUSTS OVER MOST ZONES
WILL DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SCA EXPIRES
AT 8 PM FOR MOST ZONES...EXCEPT FOR THE MD CHES BAY SOUTH OF POOLES
ISLAND AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC WHERE SOUTHERLY CHANNELING IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL 2 AM. WLY FLOW TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. LIGHT S WINDS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT...TRENDING TOWARDS THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY NW DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS JUST OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY ALSO BE NEEDED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AS BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS FILL IN BEHIND LOW PRESSURE
DEPARTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.


&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES BACK ON THE RISE...APPROACHING 1 FT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
UNDER SOUTHERLY WINDS. FORECASTS FOR WASHINGTON
CHANNEL...BALTIMORE AND ANNAPOLIS SHOW LIKELIHOOD TO REACH ACTION
STAGES IN THE NEXT TWO HIGH TIDE CYCLES LATE TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME FALL SHORT OF MINOR INUNDATION.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>533-535-536-538>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KCS
NEAR TERM...KCS
SHORT TERM...KCS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...KCS/CEB
MARINE...KCS/CEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KCS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 201527
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1127 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL
ENTER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...PERSISTING OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER EASTERN VA/NC LATE THIS MORNING. CIRRUS
DECK HAS MOVED INTO MOST OF THE CWA...AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE TODAY WITH SLY/SWLY FLOW
GUSTING UP TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. 925MB TEMPS AROUND 12C...MAX
TEMPS MID TO UPR 60S.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH TLOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED AND LIGHT SHOWERS AHEAD PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW 50S ALONG AND
EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH MAINLY WLY FLOW. THE DOWNSLOPE
WILL COUNTERACT THE HEIGHT FALLS. THEREFORE...WENT WITH SCATTERED
COVERAGE FOR POPS THROUGH THE DAY. MAX TEMPS LOWER THAN MONDAY NW
OF DC FROM CLOUD COVER. COULD IT 70F SE FROM DC SHOULD THE CLOUDS
HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE 1ST PART OF THE XTND WL BE CONTROLLED BY THE CLOSED/VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW PRES AREA. MUCH OF THE RMDR WL BE INFLUENCED BY A
RETURN TO HIGH PRES.

TUE NGT AND WED SHOULD BE CLDY. "SHOWERY" MAY BE THE BEST WORD TO
DESCRIBE THIS PD. NOT RAINY...JUST PDS OF RAIN W/ RLVTLY LOW QPF.
TEMP-WISE NOT MUCH OF A DIURNAL VARIATION - LOWS IN THE U40S/HIGHS
IN THE MU50S.

THE LOW IS XPCTD TO SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS SRN NEW ENGLAND...W/ HIGH
PRES WORKING ITS WAY BACK INTO THE RGN ON NWRLY WINDS. BRZY/
BLUSTERY MIGHT BE GOOD WORDS TO DESCRIBE THU AS THE HIGHER PRES
BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLC. HIGHS RANGING FM THE U40S IN THE
HIGHLANDS TO THE L60S NEAR THE CHES BAY. MAJORITY OF THE AREA
SHOULD HV HIGHS IN THE 50S.

AFTR THAT A SLOW WARMING TREND SHOULD TAKE PLACE UNDER M SUNNY
DAYTIME SKIES LEADING INTO THE WKND. HIGH TEMPS FOR THE UPCOMING
WKND XPCTD TO BE IN THE M60S OVR MOST OF THE AREA. LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH RETURN
SLY/SWLY FLOW GUSTING UP TO 18 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH DOWNSLOPING WLY FLOW LIMITING RAIN
COVERAGE TO SCATTERED.

TUE NGT/WED XPCTD TO BE CLDY. HGTS WL PRBLY IN THE "LOW VFR
RANGE"...PSBLY DESCENDING INTO MVFR. SKIES SHOULD IMPRV THU AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
RETURN FLOW TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF SHORE. MORNING KIAD
SOUNDING INDICATED 20-25KT WINDS NEAR THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER...WHICH CONFIRMS MODELS THAT INDICATED A 925MB JET STREAM OF
25-30KT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HAVE EXPANDED THE SCA TO
ALL WATERS WITH A NOON START TIME. SCA EXPIRES FOR MOST ZONES AT 8
PM...EXCEPT FOR THE MD CHES BAY SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND AND THE
LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC WHERE SOUTHERLY CHANNELING IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE UNTIL 2 AM. WLY FLOW TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

SCA CONDS XPCTD WED NGT AND THU...PSBLY CONT INTO FRI.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>533-535-536-538>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM AND MARINE UPDATE...KCS






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201459
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1059 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER CHANCES WILL RESUME AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SW TROF EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY CURRENTLY SWINGING AROUND THE SRN
END OF LAKE MI SOUTH OF THE SFC NEARING LAKE HURON. MID-LEVEL
DEFORMATION PRODUCING ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF TROF
AXIS. THESE CLOUDS...REPLACED BY LOWER CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
WILL KEEP TEMPS RELEGATED INTO THE 50S WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF
SEEING SUNSHINE.

RADAR RETURNS ARE QUITE NUMEROUS AT THIS HOUR...BUT ITS TRACKING
LITTLE MORE THAN VIRGA AS DRY AIR FROM THE MID LEVELS DOWN ARE
KEEPING ANY RAIN SHOWERS FROM REACHING THE GROUND. AN AXIS OF
LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY MOVING INTO WV WILL
PUSH ENE THROUGH THE RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE MID-
LEVEL DEFORMATION...BUT WITH CURRENT DEW POINT SPREADS UP TO
12F...SATURATION OF THE LOW LEVELS WILL TAKE SOME TIME.

BY 00Z ALL OF THE NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE THE SW TROF AXIS THROUGH
ERN OH WITH RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE WNW.
DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND BETTER FORCING WILL REMAIN CLOSER
TO THE LOW NEAR LAKE ERIE...THUS WILL CONTINUE THE CATEGORICAL
POPS THERE. ALTHOUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO
OUTRUN THE TROF AXIS ACROSS OUR SOUTH...ENOUGH MOISTURE IS
AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS NRN WV. WILL NOT DEVIATE FROM
THE LIKELY POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A JET STREAK MOVG THROUGH THE WRN FLANK OF THE EWD SHIFT UPR TROF
IS PROGGED TO CARVE A CUTOFF LOW OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION BY
LATE TUESDAY. COOLING MID LVLS WITH THAT SYSTEM WL LOWER CONVECTIVE
THRESHOLDS AND SPPRT SHWR ACTIVITY THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH PARTICULAR
EMPHASIS OVR UPSLOPE REGIONS TO THE N AND E OF PITTSBURGH.

BY THURSDAY...MDL WORLD PROJECTS SUFFICIENT COASTAL DVLPMNT/DEEPENING
TO DIMINISH POPS OVR THE IMMEDIATE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SHRTWV/VORT
PROJECTIONS THROUGH THE WRN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM IS MINIMAL...SO
HAVE MAINTAINED AT LEAST SLGT POPS OVR THE RIDGES THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EWD PROGRESS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR LOW WITH EXPANDING RIDGE OVR
THE CNTRL CONUS SHOULD ENSURE A GENLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CLOSE
TO THE WEEK. TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO REPRESENT THE LONG TERM
PD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPD WITH INCRG AC THRU THIS AFTN AHD OF AN APCHG
SHRTWV. THIS SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS EXPD TO BRING MVFR
CONDS AND INCRG SHWR CHCS THIS EVE AND OVRNGT. FKL/DUJ COULD ALSO
SEE IFR CIGS LT TNGT AS LLVL MOISTURE POOLS.

.AVIATION /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL THRU MID WK AS AN UPR LOW DRIFTS ACRS THE
RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201459
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1059 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER CHANCES WILL RESUME AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SW TROF EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY CURRENTLY SWINGING AROUND THE SRN
END OF LAKE MI SOUTH OF THE SFC NEARING LAKE HURON. MID-LEVEL
DEFORMATION PRODUCING ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF TROF
AXIS. THESE CLOUDS...REPLACED BY LOWER CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
WILL KEEP TEMPS RELEGATED INTO THE 50S WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF
SEEING SUNSHINE.

RADAR RETURNS ARE QUITE NUMEROUS AT THIS HOUR...BUT ITS TRACKING
LITTLE MORE THAN VIRGA AS DRY AIR FROM THE MID LEVELS DOWN ARE
KEEPING ANY RAIN SHOWERS FROM REACHING THE GROUND. AN AXIS OF
LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY MOVING INTO WV WILL
PUSH ENE THROUGH THE RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE MID-
LEVEL DEFORMATION...BUT WITH CURRENT DEW POINT SPREADS UP TO
12F...SATURATION OF THE LOW LEVELS WILL TAKE SOME TIME.

BY 00Z ALL OF THE NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE THE SW TROF AXIS THROUGH
ERN OH WITH RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE WNW.
DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND BETTER FORCING WILL REMAIN CLOSER
TO THE LOW NEAR LAKE ERIE...THUS WILL CONTINUE THE CATEGORICAL
POPS THERE. ALTHOUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO
OUTRUN THE TROF AXIS ACROSS OUR SOUTH...ENOUGH MOISTURE IS
AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS NRN WV. WILL NOT DEVIATE FROM
THE LIKELY POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A JET STREAK MOVG THROUGH THE WRN FLANK OF THE EWD SHIFT UPR TROF
IS PROGGED TO CARVE A CUTOFF LOW OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION BY
LATE TUESDAY. COOLING MID LVLS WITH THAT SYSTEM WL LOWER CONVECTIVE
THRESHOLDS AND SPPRT SHWR ACTIVITY THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH PARTICULAR
EMPHASIS OVR UPSLOPE REGIONS TO THE N AND E OF PITTSBURGH.

BY THURSDAY...MDL WORLD PROJECTS SUFFICIENT COASTAL DVLPMNT/DEEPENING
TO DIMINISH POPS OVR THE IMMEDIATE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SHRTWV/VORT
PROJECTIONS THROUGH THE WRN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM IS MINIMAL...SO
HAVE MAINTAINED AT LEAST SLGT POPS OVR THE RIDGES THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EWD PROGRESS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR LOW WITH EXPANDING RIDGE OVR
THE CNTRL CONUS SHOULD ENSURE A GENLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CLOSE
TO THE WEEK. TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO REPRESENT THE LONG TERM
PD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPD WITH INCRG AC THRU THIS AFTN AHD OF AN APCHG
SHRTWV. THIS SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS EXPD TO BRING MVFR
CONDS AND INCRG SHWR CHCS THIS EVE AND OVRNGT. FKL/DUJ COULD ALSO
SEE IFR CIGS LT TNGT AS LLVL MOISTURE POOLS.

.AVIATION /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL THRU MID WK AS AN UPR LOW DRIFTS ACRS THE
RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 201336
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
936 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR NORFOLK WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST REACHING OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LINE ON TUESDAY AND THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST, REACHING CAPE
COD ON THURSDAY AND NOVA SCOTIA ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BRIEFLY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REACHING THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FROST ADVISORY AND FREEZE WARNING WERE EXPIRED AT 8AM. A HUGE
CHUNK OF OUR REGION SAW SHELTER TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE UPPER-
20S TO LOW-30S SO WE WERE ABLE TO END THE GROWING SEASON IN A LOT
OF PLACES. THE COUNTIES AND ZONES BELOW INDICATE WHERE THE GROWING
SEASON HAS ENDED AS OF TODAY.

IN PENNSYLVANIA:
BERKS, BUCKS, CARBON, CHESTER, LEHIGH, MONROE, MONTGOMERY, NORTHAMPTON

IN NEW JERSEY:
ATLANTIC (INCLUDING COASTAL STRIP), BURLINGTON, HUNTERDON, MERCER,
MIDDLESEX, MONMOUTH (INCLUDING COASTAL STRIP), MORRIS, OCEAN
(INCLUDING COASTAL STRIP), SOMERSET, SUSSEX, WARREN.

THE UPDATE THIS MORNING LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE. DID BUMP UP TODAYS
HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES AS WE SEE BETTER WAA TAKING SHAPE. WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX UPWARDS OF 925MB WHERE 8 TO 10C TEMPERATURES
ADVECT IN BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. NOT MUCH CHANGE OTHERWISE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TODAY ALLOWING A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE TO DEVELOP. THIS FLOW WILL BE
MUCH LESS COMPARED TO THE GUSTINESS THAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY. A
ROBUST SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST WILL HELP
CARVE OUT ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS, SOME
WAA IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS COMBINED
WITH THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL SPREAD AREAS OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MAIN LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN TO OUR WEST, THEREFORE WE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST TODAY.
WE DID CARRY SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS THOUGH FOR MANY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST. AS THIS OCCURS, LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING AT THE
SURFACE IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT.

THERE IS SOME WAA BEING MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT OVERALL
THE BEST FOCUS FOR THIS IS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. IN
ADDITION, A DECENT SHOT OF LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION IS FORECAST
TO ARRIVE THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS AND THE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE, SOME
SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP. THIS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES
WHICH IS WHERE WE HAVE THE HIGHEST /CHC/ POPS LATE. THERE MAY ALSO
BE ANOTHER AREA OF FOCUS, WHICH IS OFFSHORE WHERE THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE STRONGER THETA-E ADVECTION INTERACTS WITH SOME INSTABILITY
PARTIALLY DUE TO THE GULF STREAM. OVERALL, THE CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
TO LOWER SOME THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AND THE POPS WERE
GRADUALLY INCREASED AS WELL.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WITH THE THICKENING CLOUDS AND A WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE IT WILL BE A MILDER NIGHT. OVERALL, WE
USED A MOS BLEND WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WRF-NMMB 500MB INITIALIZATION WAS BETTER THAN THE GFS OR THE
ECMWF. THE LATTER WAS TOO AMPLIFIED FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WESTWARD. THIS PRESENTS THE FCST CONUNDRUM AS THE DP/DT IS SHOWING
STRONGER RIDGING IN CENTRAL NOAM VS LAST NIGHT`S SOUNDING RUN. WE
SEEM TO BE VACILLATING AROUND A LINE VS TRENDING STEADILY IN ANY
SPECIFIC, CONSISTENT DIRECTION. E.G. AT 78 HRS THE CAN
GGEM/WRF/GFS/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SFC LOWS ARE STACKED ON TOP OF ONE
ANOTHER. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS GOING TO GO WITH THIS CONSENSUS
AS IT INCLUDES THE BETTER INITIALIZED CLUSTERING PLUS THERE IS NO
CLEAR CUT DP/DT. IN THE GRAND SCHEME, IT WILL NOT MAKE THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK PLEASANT, JUST A SLIGHTLY FASTER IMPROVEMENT THAN THE
ECMWF HAS FOR THE LATTER PART.

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODELING AGREEMENT ON TUESDAY MORNING OF OUR
CWA BEING IN A RELATIVE PCPN LULL BETWEEN IMPULSES. POPS INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
OUR CWA AND IT BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE ALOFT. OTHER THAN THE WRF-NMMB,
OTHER MODELS ARE NOT UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR THUNDER. THE 18Z WRF WAS
THE MOST UNSTABLE OF THE 21 SREF MEMBERS IN OUR CWA, SO SHOWERS YES,
BUT NO THUNDER. MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO A STAT GUIDANCE BLEND.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT THERE IS STILL A CONVECTIVE LOOK TO THE SOUNDINGS
AND INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE JUST OFFSHORE. THIS GETS TRICKY
WITH THE 2NDRY CYCLOGEN AS TO HOW QUICKLY WILL PCPN GET GENERATED
PLUS ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTIVE TRIGGERING. THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENT
TO IT HAS BEEN PRODUCING VERY LITTLE CONSISTENCY IN THE QPF FIELDS
OTHER THAN TO SUGGEST HEAVIER RAIN BECOMES A POSSIBILITY EAST. THE
SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN IN A STEADY LINE TRENDING A LITTLE
BIT SLOWER. SO FOR NOW WHILE WE HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS MOST OF
OUR CWA, WE DO NOT HAVE MODERATE RAIN MENTIONED.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY FCST TIME PERIOD FOR RAIN,
ESPECIALLY EAST AS OUR CWA WILL BE IN THE MOST DIVERGENT LOCATION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND THE STGST FCST MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE.
WE UPPED POPS AND ARE CARRYING SOME MODERATE INTENSITY RAIN EAST.
THE ONGOING 2NDRY CYCLOGENESIS APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING TOO CLOSE TO
OUR CWA TO PRODUCE A LONG ENOUGH FETCH OR PERIOD OF ONSHORE WINDS
FOR TIDAL FLOODING. IF THE LOW DOES FORM FARTHER TO THE SOUTH, THE
CHANCES FOR TIDAL FLOODING WOULD INCREASE. WE ARE ASSISTED ALSO THAT
THE MOON`S PERIGEE DOES NOT COINCIDE WITH THE NEW MOON AND THE
HIGHEST SPRING TIDES WITH THIS LUNAR PHASE ARE ON THE WEEKEND, TWO
DAYS AFTER THE NEW MOON.

MODELS START DIVERGING COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS TO HOW MUCH PCPN WILL
GET WRAPPED INTO OUR CWA. THE CONSENSUS IS A LONGER MORE CIRCUITOUS
ROUTE FOR IT TO GET BACK INTO OUR AREA. WE LOSE THE PREDICTED HIGHER
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LEANS MORE TOWARD SMALLER RAIN DROPS OR DRIZZLE
AS A PREDOMINATE PTYPE. THIS DIVERGENCE IN THE MODELS CONTINUES ON
THURSDAY AS TO HOW MUCH PCPN CAN WRAP BACK INTO OUR CWA. THE
CONSENSUS CLUSTERING IS THAT MOST OF THIS WILL BE NORTH OF OUR CWA.
POPS WERE KEPT AS CHANCE, BUT THE PERSISTENT NE FLOW WILL NOT MAKE
FOR TOO NICE A DAY. BY WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY WE ARE
GOING BELOW STAT GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH AT LEAST A WELL
TIMED BREAK COME THE WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO GENERATE SHOWERS. AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED A PREDICTED TELECONNECTION SWITCH TO A POSITIVE AO/NAO AND
NEGATIVE PNA WILL BRING A MILDER REGIME BACK INTO THE CONUS. NOT
SURPRISING WE ARE HAVING A PCPN EVENT DURING THIS SWITCH EITHER. SO
BY THE WEEKEND FAIR WEATHER RETURNS ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR, WITH A CEILING AT TIMES MAINLY AT OR ABOVE 15000 FEET.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR, WITH A CEILING LOWERING TO BETWEEN 5000-8000 FEET.
SOME SHOWERS MAY APPROACH KABE AND KRDG TOWARD DAYBREAK.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS, AND EVEN BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT SOME TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...SOME MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY DUE TO CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS
(MAINLY CIGS) WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS (MAINLY DUE TO CIGS AGAIN)
SHOULD OCCUR. HIGHEST POSSIBILITIES EASTERN TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS.
GUSTIER NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

THURSDAY...PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS. GREATEST DURATION NORTHERN
AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BECOMING VFR THURSDAY NIGHT AND VFR
FRIDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST ALLOWING A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
FOR MUCH OF TODAY, HOWEVER IS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SOME LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR A TIME. THE OVERALL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD
BE LIGHT ENOUGH THOUGH TO KEEP THE WINDS BELOW 25 KNOTS. THE SEAS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE AT OR BELOW 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A PROTRACTED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SECONDARY LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD INCREASE THE GRADIENT ON
WEDNESDAY AND MORE CONFIDENTLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD LIKELY PEAK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SLOW
IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER WITH DELAWARE BAY FIRST TO LOOSE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GAINES/GIGI
NEAR TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GAINES/GIGI/GORSE
MARINE...GAINES/GIGI/GORSE







000
FXUS61 KPHI 201336
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
936 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR NORFOLK WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST REACHING OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LINE ON TUESDAY AND THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST, REACHING CAPE
COD ON THURSDAY AND NOVA SCOTIA ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BRIEFLY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REACHING THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FROST ADVISORY AND FREEZE WARNING WERE EXPIRED AT 8AM. A HUGE
CHUNK OF OUR REGION SAW SHELTER TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE UPPER-
20S TO LOW-30S SO WE WERE ABLE TO END THE GROWING SEASON IN A LOT
OF PLACES. THE COUNTIES AND ZONES BELOW INDICATE WHERE THE GROWING
SEASON HAS ENDED AS OF TODAY.

IN PENNSYLVANIA:
BERKS, BUCKS, CARBON, CHESTER, LEHIGH, MONROE, MONTGOMERY, NORTHAMPTON

IN NEW JERSEY:
ATLANTIC (INCLUDING COASTAL STRIP), BURLINGTON, HUNTERDON, MERCER,
MIDDLESEX, MONMOUTH (INCLUDING COASTAL STRIP), MORRIS, OCEAN
(INCLUDING COASTAL STRIP), SOMERSET, SUSSEX, WARREN.

THE UPDATE THIS MORNING LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE. DID BUMP UP TODAYS
HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES AS WE SEE BETTER WAA TAKING SHAPE. WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX UPWARDS OF 925MB WHERE 8 TO 10C TEMPERATURES
ADVECT IN BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. NOT MUCH CHANGE OTHERWISE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TODAY ALLOWING A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE TO DEVELOP. THIS FLOW WILL BE
MUCH LESS COMPARED TO THE GUSTINESS THAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY. A
ROBUST SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST WILL HELP
CARVE OUT ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS, SOME
WAA IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS COMBINED
WITH THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL SPREAD AREAS OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MAIN LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN TO OUR WEST, THEREFORE WE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST TODAY.
WE DID CARRY SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS THOUGH FOR MANY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST. AS THIS OCCURS, LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING AT THE
SURFACE IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT.

THERE IS SOME WAA BEING MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT OVERALL
THE BEST FOCUS FOR THIS IS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. IN
ADDITION, A DECENT SHOT OF LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION IS FORECAST
TO ARRIVE THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS AND THE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE, SOME
SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP. THIS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES
WHICH IS WHERE WE HAVE THE HIGHEST /CHC/ POPS LATE. THERE MAY ALSO
BE ANOTHER AREA OF FOCUS, WHICH IS OFFSHORE WHERE THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE STRONGER THETA-E ADVECTION INTERACTS WITH SOME INSTABILITY
PARTIALLY DUE TO THE GULF STREAM. OVERALL, THE CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
TO LOWER SOME THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AND THE POPS WERE
GRADUALLY INCREASED AS WELL.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WITH THE THICKENING CLOUDS AND A WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE IT WILL BE A MILDER NIGHT. OVERALL, WE
USED A MOS BLEND WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WRF-NMMB 500MB INITIALIZATION WAS BETTER THAN THE GFS OR THE
ECMWF. THE LATTER WAS TOO AMPLIFIED FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WESTWARD. THIS PRESENTS THE FCST CONUNDRUM AS THE DP/DT IS SHOWING
STRONGER RIDGING IN CENTRAL NOAM VS LAST NIGHT`S SOUNDING RUN. WE
SEEM TO BE VACILLATING AROUND A LINE VS TRENDING STEADILY IN ANY
SPECIFIC, CONSISTENT DIRECTION. E.G. AT 78 HRS THE CAN
GGEM/WRF/GFS/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SFC LOWS ARE STACKED ON TOP OF ONE
ANOTHER. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS GOING TO GO WITH THIS CONSENSUS
AS IT INCLUDES THE BETTER INITIALIZED CLUSTERING PLUS THERE IS NO
CLEAR CUT DP/DT. IN THE GRAND SCHEME, IT WILL NOT MAKE THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK PLEASANT, JUST A SLIGHTLY FASTER IMPROVEMENT THAN THE
ECMWF HAS FOR THE LATTER PART.

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODELING AGREEMENT ON TUESDAY MORNING OF OUR
CWA BEING IN A RELATIVE PCPN LULL BETWEEN IMPULSES. POPS INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
OUR CWA AND IT BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE ALOFT. OTHER THAN THE WRF-NMMB,
OTHER MODELS ARE NOT UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR THUNDER. THE 18Z WRF WAS
THE MOST UNSTABLE OF THE 21 SREF MEMBERS IN OUR CWA, SO SHOWERS YES,
BUT NO THUNDER. MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO A STAT GUIDANCE BLEND.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT THERE IS STILL A CONVECTIVE LOOK TO THE SOUNDINGS
AND INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE JUST OFFSHORE. THIS GETS TRICKY
WITH THE 2NDRY CYCLOGEN AS TO HOW QUICKLY WILL PCPN GET GENERATED
PLUS ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTIVE TRIGGERING. THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENT
TO IT HAS BEEN PRODUCING VERY LITTLE CONSISTENCY IN THE QPF FIELDS
OTHER THAN TO SUGGEST HEAVIER RAIN BECOMES A POSSIBILITY EAST. THE
SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN IN A STEADY LINE TRENDING A LITTLE
BIT SLOWER. SO FOR NOW WHILE WE HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS MOST OF
OUR CWA, WE DO NOT HAVE MODERATE RAIN MENTIONED.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY FCST TIME PERIOD FOR RAIN,
ESPECIALLY EAST AS OUR CWA WILL BE IN THE MOST DIVERGENT LOCATION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND THE STGST FCST MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE.
WE UPPED POPS AND ARE CARRYING SOME MODERATE INTENSITY RAIN EAST.
THE ONGOING 2NDRY CYCLOGENESIS APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING TOO CLOSE TO
OUR CWA TO PRODUCE A LONG ENOUGH FETCH OR PERIOD OF ONSHORE WINDS
FOR TIDAL FLOODING. IF THE LOW DOES FORM FARTHER TO THE SOUTH, THE
CHANCES FOR TIDAL FLOODING WOULD INCREASE. WE ARE ASSISTED ALSO THAT
THE MOON`S PERIGEE DOES NOT COINCIDE WITH THE NEW MOON AND THE
HIGHEST SPRING TIDES WITH THIS LUNAR PHASE ARE ON THE WEEKEND, TWO
DAYS AFTER THE NEW MOON.

MODELS START DIVERGING COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS TO HOW MUCH PCPN WILL
GET WRAPPED INTO OUR CWA. THE CONSENSUS IS A LONGER MORE CIRCUITOUS
ROUTE FOR IT TO GET BACK INTO OUR AREA. WE LOSE THE PREDICTED HIGHER
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LEANS MORE TOWARD SMALLER RAIN DROPS OR DRIZZLE
AS A PREDOMINATE PTYPE. THIS DIVERGENCE IN THE MODELS CONTINUES ON
THURSDAY AS TO HOW MUCH PCPN CAN WRAP BACK INTO OUR CWA. THE
CONSENSUS CLUSTERING IS THAT MOST OF THIS WILL BE NORTH OF OUR CWA.
POPS WERE KEPT AS CHANCE, BUT THE PERSISTENT NE FLOW WILL NOT MAKE
FOR TOO NICE A DAY. BY WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY WE ARE
GOING BELOW STAT GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH AT LEAST A WELL
TIMED BREAK COME THE WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO GENERATE SHOWERS. AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED A PREDICTED TELECONNECTION SWITCH TO A POSITIVE AO/NAO AND
NEGATIVE PNA WILL BRING A MILDER REGIME BACK INTO THE CONUS. NOT
SURPRISING WE ARE HAVING A PCPN EVENT DURING THIS SWITCH EITHER. SO
BY THE WEEKEND FAIR WEATHER RETURNS ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR, WITH A CEILING AT TIMES MAINLY AT OR ABOVE 15000 FEET.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR, WITH A CEILING LOWERING TO BETWEEN 5000-8000 FEET.
SOME SHOWERS MAY APPROACH KABE AND KRDG TOWARD DAYBREAK.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS, AND EVEN BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT SOME TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...SOME MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY DUE TO CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS
(MAINLY CIGS) WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS (MAINLY DUE TO CIGS AGAIN)
SHOULD OCCUR. HIGHEST POSSIBILITIES EASTERN TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS.
GUSTIER NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

THURSDAY...PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS. GREATEST DURATION NORTHERN
AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BECOMING VFR THURSDAY NIGHT AND VFR
FRIDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST ALLOWING A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
FOR MUCH OF TODAY, HOWEVER IS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SOME LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR A TIME. THE OVERALL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD
BE LIGHT ENOUGH THOUGH TO KEEP THE WINDS BELOW 25 KNOTS. THE SEAS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE AT OR BELOW 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A PROTRACTED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SECONDARY LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD INCREASE THE GRADIENT ON
WEDNESDAY AND MORE CONFIDENTLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD LIKELY PEAK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SLOW
IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER WITH DELAWARE BAY FIRST TO LOOSE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GAINES/GIGI
NEAR TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GAINES/GIGI/GORSE
MARINE...GAINES/GIGI/GORSE






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201326
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
926 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING OFF
THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE TODAY...WITH SLY RETURN
FLOW/WAA COMMENCING. ALOFT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY...DOWNSTREAM OF AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE
OVER THE WRN CONUS. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REACHES THE OH VALLEY
LATE TODAY. INCREASING WINDS ALOFT AND LEADWAVE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL PROVIDE DYNAMICAL FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE REGION...BUT
DUE TO A DRY AIR MASS PER BUFR SOUNDINGS AND PWATS AROUND 0.75
INCHES...WILL ONLY SEE INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS LATE TODAY. LOW-
LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASE NEARLY 20 M TODAY THANKS TO SLY SFC
WINDS OF 10-15 MPH AND SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS. H85 TEMPS WARM TO
AROUND 12C. TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FLOW AMPLIFIES DURING THE SHORT TERM AS A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS
OVER THE ERN CONUS. ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES
TUES THANKS TO A 100+ KT JET STREAK DIVING SWD FROM S CNTRL CANADA.
AS A RESULT...UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NE STATES. THE UPPER LOW WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD TUES NIGHT
INTO WEDS...LOCATING OFFSHORE LATE WEDS. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW DROPS
INTO THE NE STATES TONIGHT WITH A ATTENDANT COLD FRONT REACHING THE
LOCAL AREA EARLY TUES MORNING. MEANWHILE...AN INVERTED
TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPS ALONG/JUST OFF THE SE/MID-ATLANTIC
COAST AS THE SFC HIGH PUSHES WELL OFFSHORE. SHORTWAVE/HEIGHT FALLS
AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE
FRONT...BUT A MOISTURE STARVED AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN LITTLE MORE
THAN LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NW LOCAL AREA. BEST COVERAGE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT TUES MORNING. THE STACKED
LOW CROSSES THE AREA TUES...LOCATING JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
LATE TUES. VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE UVM OVER THE REGION...BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL BE NEAREST THE SFC LOW/BEST MOISTURE OVER THE N AND NE
LOCAL AREA. AS THE LOW LOCATES OFFSHORE TUES NIGHT...BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE ERN SHORE. MOSTLY CLOUDY-CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TUES ACROSS THE N-NE TO PARTLY CLOUDY SW. HIGHS TUES
PROGGED IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS
AS THE TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WL THEREFORE KEEP
FORECAST DRY WEST OF I-95 ON WED, WITH LOW CHC POP FARTHER EAST
FOR SOME SCT SHRAS OVER COASTAL AREAS/ERN SHORE. HIGHS WED
REMAIN BELOW CLIMO NUMBERS...GENERALLY IN THE L-M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WED NIGHT THRU
FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS (~30%) ACROSS FAR EASTERN
ZONES WED NIGHT...LOWERING TO SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) OVER THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE ON THURS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COASTAL LOW LATE IN THE COMING WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...PUSHING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION NEXT SUNDAY. DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED.
HIGHS THU 60-65...THEN FRI-SUN IN THE MID/UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE 40S
TO LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY/VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT...JUST SOME INCREASING
MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACRS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME S/SW TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTN.

OUTLOOK...NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
THEN LINGERS OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING ALONG
WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS. WINDS FROM THE NW ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE NEAR TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD/MUCH
LIGHTER WINDS...AND COASTAL SEAS NOW 3-4 FT OR LESS THROUGHOUT THE
REGION. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE LATER TODAY...ALLOWING
WINDS TO TURN TO THE S/SW. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT THIS
AFTN/EVENING...EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH WIND SPEEDS
AVERAGING UP TO 15-20 KT ACRS NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...GENLY 10-15
KT ELSEWHERE. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE WATERS LATE TUE
AFTN/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY EVENTUAL SCA CONDITIONS AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. WITH SYSTEM EXPECTED TO STALL
OFFSHORE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS IS LIKELY. WITH FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM THE NW...SEAS
WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201326
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
926 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING OFF
THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE TODAY...WITH SLY RETURN
FLOW/WAA COMMENCING. ALOFT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY...DOWNSTREAM OF AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE
OVER THE WRN CONUS. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REACHES THE OH VALLEY
LATE TODAY. INCREASING WINDS ALOFT AND LEADWAVE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL PROVIDE DYNAMICAL FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE REGION...BUT
DUE TO A DRY AIR MASS PER BUFR SOUNDINGS AND PWATS AROUND 0.75
INCHES...WILL ONLY SEE INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS LATE TODAY. LOW-
LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASE NEARLY 20 M TODAY THANKS TO SLY SFC
WINDS OF 10-15 MPH AND SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS. H85 TEMPS WARM TO
AROUND 12C. TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FLOW AMPLIFIES DURING THE SHORT TERM AS A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS
OVER THE ERN CONUS. ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES
TUES THANKS TO A 100+ KT JET STREAK DIVING SWD FROM S CNTRL CANADA.
AS A RESULT...UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NE STATES. THE UPPER LOW WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD TUES NIGHT
INTO WEDS...LOCATING OFFSHORE LATE WEDS. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW DROPS
INTO THE NE STATES TONIGHT WITH A ATTENDANT COLD FRONT REACHING THE
LOCAL AREA EARLY TUES MORNING. MEANWHILE...AN INVERTED
TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPS ALONG/JUST OFF THE SE/MID-ATLANTIC
COAST AS THE SFC HIGH PUSHES WELL OFFSHORE. SHORTWAVE/HEIGHT FALLS
AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE
FRONT...BUT A MOISTURE STARVED AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN LITTLE MORE
THAN LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NW LOCAL AREA. BEST COVERAGE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT TUES MORNING. THE STACKED
LOW CROSSES THE AREA TUES...LOCATING JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
LATE TUES. VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE UVM OVER THE REGION...BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL BE NEAREST THE SFC LOW/BEST MOISTURE OVER THE N AND NE
LOCAL AREA. AS THE LOW LOCATES OFFSHORE TUES NIGHT...BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE ERN SHORE. MOSTLY CLOUDY-CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TUES ACROSS THE N-NE TO PARTLY CLOUDY SW. HIGHS TUES
PROGGED IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS
AS THE TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WL THEREFORE KEEP
FORECAST DRY WEST OF I-95 ON WED, WITH LOW CHC POP FARTHER EAST
FOR SOME SCT SHRAS OVER COASTAL AREAS/ERN SHORE. HIGHS WED
REMAIN BELOW CLIMO NUMBERS...GENERALLY IN THE L-M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WED NIGHT THRU
FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS (~30%) ACROSS FAR EASTERN
ZONES WED NIGHT...LOWERING TO SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) OVER THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE ON THURS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COASTAL LOW LATE IN THE COMING WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...PUSHING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION NEXT SUNDAY. DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED.
HIGHS THU 60-65...THEN FRI-SUN IN THE MID/UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE 40S
TO LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY/VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT...JUST SOME INCREASING
MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACRS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME S/SW TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTN.

OUTLOOK...NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
THEN LINGERS OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING ALONG
WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS. WINDS FROM THE NW ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE NEAR TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD/MUCH
LIGHTER WINDS...AND COASTAL SEAS NOW 3-4 FT OR LESS THROUGHOUT THE
REGION. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE LATER TODAY...ALLOWING
WINDS TO TURN TO THE S/SW. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT THIS
AFTN/EVENING...EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH WIND SPEEDS
AVERAGING UP TO 15-20 KT ACRS NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...GENLY 10-15
KT ELSEWHERE. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE WATERS LATE TUE
AFTN/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY EVENTUAL SCA CONDITIONS AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. WITH SYSTEM EXPECTED TO STALL
OFFSHORE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS IS LIKELY. WITH FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM THE NW...SEAS
WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB






000
FXUS61 KLWX 201316
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
916 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL
ENTER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...PERSISTING OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TEMPS HAVE MODERATED INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S AT 9AM...SO
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER EASTERN VA/MD/NC THIS MORNING. CIRRUS
DECK HAS MOVED INTO NRN AND WRN MD...WESTERN VA AND WV...AND WILL
AFFECT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE
TODAY WITH SLY/SWLY FLOW GUSTING UP TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
925MB TEMPS AROUND 12C...MAX TEMPS MID TO UPR 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES LOW WILL CROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
AND LIGHT SHOWERS AHEAD PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH MAINLY WLY FLOW. THE DOWNSLOPE
WILL COUNTERACT THE HEIGHT FALLS. THEREFORE...WENT WITH SCATTERED
COVERAGE FOR POPS THROUGH THE DAY. MAX TEMPS LOWER THAN MONDAY NW OF
DC FROM CLOUD COVER. COULD IT 70F SE FROM DC SHOULD THE CLOUDS HOLD
OFF LONG ENOUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE 1ST PART OF THE XTND WL BE CONTROLLED BY THE CLOSED/VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW PRES AREA. MUCH OF THE RMDR WL BE INFLUENCED BY A
RETURN TO HIGH PRES.

TUE NGT AND WED SHOULD BE CLDY. "SHOWERY" MAY BE THE BEST WORD TO
DESCRIBE THIS PD. NOT RAINY...JUST PDS OF RAIN W/ RLVTLY LOW QPF.
TEMP-WISE NOT MUCH OF A DIURNAL VARIATION - LOWS IN THE U40S/HIGHS
IN THE MU50S.

THE LOW IS XPCTD TO SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS SRN NEW ENGLAND...W/ HIGH
PRES WORKING ITS WAY BACK INTO THE RGN ON NWRLY WINDS. BRZY/
BLUSTERY MIGHT BE GOOD WORDS TO DESCRIBE THU AS THE HIGHER PRES
BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLC. HIGHS RANGING FM THE U40S IN THE
HIGHLANDS TO THE L60S NEAR THE CHES BAY. MAJORITY OF THE AREA
SHOULD HV HIGHS IN THE 50S.

AFTR THAT A SLOW WARMING TREND SHOULD TAKE PLACE UNDER M SUNNY
DAYTIME SKIES LEADING INTO THE WKND. HIGH TEMPS FOR THE UPCOMING
WKND XPCTD TO BE IN THE M60S OVR MOST OF THE AREA. LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH RETURN
SLY/SWLY FLOW GUSTING UP TO 18 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH DOWNSLOPING WLY FLOW LIMITING RAIN
COVERAGE TO SCATTERED.

TUE NGT/WED XPCTD TO BE CLDY. HGTS WL PRBLY IN THE "LOW VFR
RANGE"...PSBLY DESCENDING INTO MVFR. SKIES SHOULD IMPRV THU AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
RETURN FLOW TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF SHORE. SCA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FOR MD BAY SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND FOR SLY
CHANNELING UP TO 20 KT. WEAK COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT SHIFTS WINDS
WEST. WLY FLOW TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

SCA CONDS XPCTD WED NGT AND THU...PSBLY CONT INTO FRI.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ531>533-540-541.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM UPDATE...KCS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 201316
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
916 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL
ENTER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...PERSISTING OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TEMPS HAVE MODERATED INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S AT 9AM...SO
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER EASTERN VA/MD/NC THIS MORNING. CIRRUS
DECK HAS MOVED INTO NRN AND WRN MD...WESTERN VA AND WV...AND WILL
AFFECT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE
TODAY WITH SLY/SWLY FLOW GUSTING UP TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
925MB TEMPS AROUND 12C...MAX TEMPS MID TO UPR 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES LOW WILL CROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
AND LIGHT SHOWERS AHEAD PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH MAINLY WLY FLOW. THE DOWNSLOPE
WILL COUNTERACT THE HEIGHT FALLS. THEREFORE...WENT WITH SCATTERED
COVERAGE FOR POPS THROUGH THE DAY. MAX TEMPS LOWER THAN MONDAY NW OF
DC FROM CLOUD COVER. COULD IT 70F SE FROM DC SHOULD THE CLOUDS HOLD
OFF LONG ENOUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE 1ST PART OF THE XTND WL BE CONTROLLED BY THE CLOSED/VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW PRES AREA. MUCH OF THE RMDR WL BE INFLUENCED BY A
RETURN TO HIGH PRES.

TUE NGT AND WED SHOULD BE CLDY. "SHOWERY" MAY BE THE BEST WORD TO
DESCRIBE THIS PD. NOT RAINY...JUST PDS OF RAIN W/ RLVTLY LOW QPF.
TEMP-WISE NOT MUCH OF A DIURNAL VARIATION - LOWS IN THE U40S/HIGHS
IN THE MU50S.

THE LOW IS XPCTD TO SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS SRN NEW ENGLAND...W/ HIGH
PRES WORKING ITS WAY BACK INTO THE RGN ON NWRLY WINDS. BRZY/
BLUSTERY MIGHT BE GOOD WORDS TO DESCRIBE THU AS THE HIGHER PRES
BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLC. HIGHS RANGING FM THE U40S IN THE
HIGHLANDS TO THE L60S NEAR THE CHES BAY. MAJORITY OF THE AREA
SHOULD HV HIGHS IN THE 50S.

AFTR THAT A SLOW WARMING TREND SHOULD TAKE PLACE UNDER M SUNNY
DAYTIME SKIES LEADING INTO THE WKND. HIGH TEMPS FOR THE UPCOMING
WKND XPCTD TO BE IN THE M60S OVR MOST OF THE AREA. LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH RETURN
SLY/SWLY FLOW GUSTING UP TO 18 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH DOWNSLOPING WLY FLOW LIMITING RAIN
COVERAGE TO SCATTERED.

TUE NGT/WED XPCTD TO BE CLDY. HGTS WL PRBLY IN THE "LOW VFR
RANGE"...PSBLY DESCENDING INTO MVFR. SKIES SHOULD IMPRV THU AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
RETURN FLOW TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF SHORE. SCA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FOR MD BAY SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND FOR SLY
CHANNELING UP TO 20 KT. WEAK COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT SHIFTS WINDS
WEST. WLY FLOW TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

SCA CONDS XPCTD WED NGT AND THU...PSBLY CONT INTO FRI.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ531>533-540-541.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM UPDATE...KCS








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201026
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
626 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER CHANCES WILL RESUME AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TWEAKED ERLY MRNG HRLY GRIDS BASED ON LATEST OBS/TRENDS FOR THE
PREDAWN UPDT.

PREVIOUS DISC...WARM ADVCTN AND THICKENING CLD COVER WL PRECLUDE
MUCH MORE OF A TEMP DROP THIS MRNG...WITH MANY READINGS FM ALNG
AND N OF I 70 RISING. THE FROST ADVISORY FOR THE CNTIES
SURROUNDING MORGANTOWN WAS THUS DROPPED EARLY AS WIDESPREAD FROST
IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH EXTENSIVE CIRROSTRATUS SHIELD/ENCROACHING
ALTOSTRATUS AND GENL TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S IN THE ADVISORY AREA
EXPECTED TO BEGIN RISING BEFORE SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...THE APCHG SHRTWV THAT IS SPEWING UPR AND MID LVL CLDINESS
OVR THE REGION...IS STILL EXPECTED TO GENERATE SHWRS OVR BY EVE.
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR LGT PCPN HAVE BEEN CONTINUED...BUT
OVRALL NMBRS WERE TEMPERED AND TIMING FURTHER ADJUSTED FOR A
LATER START GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE DRY LYR ON THE EVE SNDING AS
WELL AS THE LATEST MDL TRENDS.

MRNG TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING HRLY LAMP GUIDANCE AND RAP NMBRS...WHILE
COOL DAYTIME HIGHS WERE TWEAKED USING GFS MOSGUIDE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A JET STREAK MOVG THROUGH THE WRN FLANK OF THE EWD SHIFT UPR TROF
IS PROGGED TO CARVE A CUTOFF LOW OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION BY
LATE TUESDAY. COOLING MID LVLS WITH THAT SYSTEM WL LOWER CONVECTIVE
THRESHOLDS AND SPPRT SHWR ACTIVITY THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH PARTICULAR
EMPHASIS OVR UPSLOPE REGIONS TO THE N AND E OF PITTSBURGH.

BY THURSDAY...MDL WORLD PROJECTS SUFFICIENT COASTAL DVLPMNT/DEEPENING
TO DIMINISH POPS OVR THE IMMEDIATE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SHRTWV/VORT
PROJECTIONS THROUGH THE WRN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM IS MINIMAL...SO
HAVE MAINTAINED AT LEAST SLGT POPS OVR THE RIDGES THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EWD PROGRESS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR LOW WITH EXPANDING RIDGE OVR
THE CNTRL CONUS SHOULD ENSURE A GENLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CLOSE
TO THE WEEK. TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO REPRESENT THE LONG TERM
PD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPD WITH INCRG AC THRU THIS AFTN AHD OF AN APCHG
SHRTWV. THIS SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS EXPD TO BRING MVFR
CONDS AND INCRG SHWR CHCS THIS EVE AND OVRNGT. FKL/DUJ COULD ALSO
SEE IFR CIGS LT TNGT AS LLVL MOISTURE POOLS.

.AVIATION /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL THRU MID WK AS AN UPR LOW DRIFTS ACRS THE
RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201026
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
626 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER CHANCES WILL RESUME AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TWEAKED ERLY MRNG HRLY GRIDS BASED ON LATEST OBS/TRENDS FOR THE
PREDAWN UPDT.

PREVIOUS DISC...WARM ADVCTN AND THICKENING CLD COVER WL PRECLUDE
MUCH MORE OF A TEMP DROP THIS MRNG...WITH MANY READINGS FM ALNG
AND N OF I 70 RISING. THE FROST ADVISORY FOR THE CNTIES
SURROUNDING MORGANTOWN WAS THUS DROPPED EARLY AS WIDESPREAD FROST
IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH EXTENSIVE CIRROSTRATUS SHIELD/ENCROACHING
ALTOSTRATUS AND GENL TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S IN THE ADVISORY AREA
EXPECTED TO BEGIN RISING BEFORE SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...THE APCHG SHRTWV THAT IS SPEWING UPR AND MID LVL CLDINESS
OVR THE REGION...IS STILL EXPECTED TO GENERATE SHWRS OVR BY EVE.
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR LGT PCPN HAVE BEEN CONTINUED...BUT
OVRALL NMBRS WERE TEMPERED AND TIMING FURTHER ADJUSTED FOR A
LATER START GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE DRY LYR ON THE EVE SNDING AS
WELL AS THE LATEST MDL TRENDS.

MRNG TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING HRLY LAMP GUIDANCE AND RAP NMBRS...WHILE
COOL DAYTIME HIGHS WERE TWEAKED USING GFS MOSGUIDE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A JET STREAK MOVG THROUGH THE WRN FLANK OF THE EWD SHIFT UPR TROF
IS PROGGED TO CARVE A CUTOFF LOW OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION BY
LATE TUESDAY. COOLING MID LVLS WITH THAT SYSTEM WL LOWER CONVECTIVE
THRESHOLDS AND SPPRT SHWR ACTIVITY THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH PARTICULAR
EMPHASIS OVR UPSLOPE REGIONS TO THE N AND E OF PITTSBURGH.

BY THURSDAY...MDL WORLD PROJECTS SUFFICIENT COASTAL DVLPMNT/DEEPENING
TO DIMINISH POPS OVR THE IMMEDIATE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SHRTWV/VORT
PROJECTIONS THROUGH THE WRN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM IS MINIMAL...SO
HAVE MAINTAINED AT LEAST SLGT POPS OVR THE RIDGES THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EWD PROGRESS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR LOW WITH EXPANDING RIDGE OVR
THE CNTRL CONUS SHOULD ENSURE A GENLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CLOSE
TO THE WEEK. TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO REPRESENT THE LONG TERM
PD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPD WITH INCRG AC THRU THIS AFTN AHD OF AN APCHG
SHRTWV. THIS SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS EXPD TO BRING MVFR
CONDS AND INCRG SHWR CHCS THIS EVE AND OVRNGT. FKL/DUJ COULD ALSO
SEE IFR CIGS LT TNGT AS LLVL MOISTURE POOLS.

.AVIATION /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL THRU MID WK AS AN UPR LOW DRIFTS ACRS THE
RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201026
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
626 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER CHANCES WILL RESUME AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TWEAKED ERLY MRNG HRLY GRIDS BASED ON LATEST OBS/TRENDS FOR THE
PREDAWN UPDT.

PREVIOUS DISC...WARM ADVCTN AND THICKENING CLD COVER WL PRECLUDE
MUCH MORE OF A TEMP DROP THIS MRNG...WITH MANY READINGS FM ALNG
AND N OF I 70 RISING. THE FROST ADVISORY FOR THE CNTIES
SURROUNDING MORGANTOWN WAS THUS DROPPED EARLY AS WIDESPREAD FROST
IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH EXTENSIVE CIRROSTRATUS SHIELD/ENCROACHING
ALTOSTRATUS AND GENL TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S IN THE ADVISORY AREA
EXPECTED TO BEGIN RISING BEFORE SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...THE APCHG SHRTWV THAT IS SPEWING UPR AND MID LVL CLDINESS
OVR THE REGION...IS STILL EXPECTED TO GENERATE SHWRS OVR BY EVE.
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR LGT PCPN HAVE BEEN CONTINUED...BUT
OVRALL NMBRS WERE TEMPERED AND TIMING FURTHER ADJUSTED FOR A
LATER START GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE DRY LYR ON THE EVE SNDING AS
WELL AS THE LATEST MDL TRENDS.

MRNG TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING HRLY LAMP GUIDANCE AND RAP NMBRS...WHILE
COOL DAYTIME HIGHS WERE TWEAKED USING GFS MOSGUIDE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A JET STREAK MOVG THROUGH THE WRN FLANK OF THE EWD SHIFT UPR TROF
IS PROGGED TO CARVE A CUTOFF LOW OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION BY
LATE TUESDAY. COOLING MID LVLS WITH THAT SYSTEM WL LOWER CONVECTIVE
THRESHOLDS AND SPPRT SHWR ACTIVITY THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH PARTICULAR
EMPHASIS OVR UPSLOPE REGIONS TO THE N AND E OF PITTSBURGH.

BY THURSDAY...MDL WORLD PROJECTS SUFFICIENT COASTAL DVLPMNT/DEEPENING
TO DIMINISH POPS OVR THE IMMEDIATE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SHRTWV/VORT
PROJECTIONS THROUGH THE WRN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM IS MINIMAL...SO
HAVE MAINTAINED AT LEAST SLGT POPS OVR THE RIDGES THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EWD PROGRESS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR LOW WITH EXPANDING RIDGE OVR
THE CNTRL CONUS SHOULD ENSURE A GENLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CLOSE
TO THE WEEK. TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO REPRESENT THE LONG TERM
PD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPD WITH INCRG AC THRU THIS AFTN AHD OF AN APCHG
SHRTWV. THIS SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS EXPD TO BRING MVFR
CONDS AND INCRG SHWR CHCS THIS EVE AND OVRNGT. FKL/DUJ COULD ALSO
SEE IFR CIGS LT TNGT AS LLVL MOISTURE POOLS.

.AVIATION /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL THRU MID WK AS AN UPR LOW DRIFTS ACRS THE
RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201026
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
626 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER CHANCES WILL RESUME AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TWEAKED ERLY MRNG HRLY GRIDS BASED ON LATEST OBS/TRENDS FOR THE
PREDAWN UPDT.

PREVIOUS DISC...WARM ADVCTN AND THICKENING CLD COVER WL PRECLUDE
MUCH MORE OF A TEMP DROP THIS MRNG...WITH MANY READINGS FM ALNG
AND N OF I 70 RISING. THE FROST ADVISORY FOR THE CNTIES
SURROUNDING MORGANTOWN WAS THUS DROPPED EARLY AS WIDESPREAD FROST
IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH EXTENSIVE CIRROSTRATUS SHIELD/ENCROACHING
ALTOSTRATUS AND GENL TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S IN THE ADVISORY AREA
EXPECTED TO BEGIN RISING BEFORE SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...THE APCHG SHRTWV THAT IS SPEWING UPR AND MID LVL CLDINESS
OVR THE REGION...IS STILL EXPECTED TO GENERATE SHWRS OVR BY EVE.
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR LGT PCPN HAVE BEEN CONTINUED...BUT
OVRALL NMBRS WERE TEMPERED AND TIMING FURTHER ADJUSTED FOR A
LATER START GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE DRY LYR ON THE EVE SNDING AS
WELL AS THE LATEST MDL TRENDS.

MRNG TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING HRLY LAMP GUIDANCE AND RAP NMBRS...WHILE
COOL DAYTIME HIGHS WERE TWEAKED USING GFS MOSGUIDE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A JET STREAK MOVG THROUGH THE WRN FLANK OF THE EWD SHIFT UPR TROF
IS PROGGED TO CARVE A CUTOFF LOW OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION BY
LATE TUESDAY. COOLING MID LVLS WITH THAT SYSTEM WL LOWER CONVECTIVE
THRESHOLDS AND SPPRT SHWR ACTIVITY THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH PARTICULAR
EMPHASIS OVR UPSLOPE REGIONS TO THE N AND E OF PITTSBURGH.

BY THURSDAY...MDL WORLD PROJECTS SUFFICIENT COASTAL DVLPMNT/DEEPENING
TO DIMINISH POPS OVR THE IMMEDIATE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SHRTWV/VORT
PROJECTIONS THROUGH THE WRN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM IS MINIMAL...SO
HAVE MAINTAINED AT LEAST SLGT POPS OVR THE RIDGES THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EWD PROGRESS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR LOW WITH EXPANDING RIDGE OVR
THE CNTRL CONUS SHOULD ENSURE A GENLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CLOSE
TO THE WEEK. TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO REPRESENT THE LONG TERM
PD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPD WITH INCRG AC THRU THIS AFTN AHD OF AN APCHG
SHRTWV. THIS SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS EXPD TO BRING MVFR
CONDS AND INCRG SHWR CHCS THIS EVE AND OVRNGT. FKL/DUJ COULD ALSO
SEE IFR CIGS LT TNGT AS LLVL MOISTURE POOLS.

.AVIATION /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL THRU MID WK AS AN UPR LOW DRIFTS ACRS THE
RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07






000
FXUS61 KPHI 200814
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
414 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR NORFOLK WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST REACHING OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LINE ON TUESDAY AND THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST, REACHING CAPE
COD ON THURSDAY AND NOVA SCOTIA ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BRIEFLY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REACHING THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FROST ADVISORY AND FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EARLY
THIS MORNING, AS MANY AREAS ARE WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S. THE HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS THOUGH MAY HAVE SLOWED THE TEMPERATURE DROP A LITTLE
FOR SOME SPOTS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TODAY ALLOWING A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE TO DEVELOP. THIS FLOW WILL BE MUCH
LESS COMPARED TO THE GUSTINESS THAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY. A ROBUST
SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST WILL HELP CARVE OUT
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS, SOME WEAK WAA IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
PRESENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL SPREAD AREAS OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MAIN LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST,
THEREFORE WE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST TODAY. WE DID CARRY SOME
ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS THOUGH FOR MANY AREAS.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE USED A MODEL/MOS BLEND WHICH RESULTS
IN MILDER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THIS LINES UP WITH THE
WEAK WAA THAT IS ALSO FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH A
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST. AS THIS OCCURS, LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING AT THE
SURFACE IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT.

THERE IS SOME WAA BEING MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT OVERALL
THE BEST FOCUS FOR THIS IS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. IN
ADDITION, A DECENT SHOT OF LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION IS FORECAST
TO ARRIVE THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS AND THE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE, SOME
SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP. THIS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES
WHICH IS WHERE WE HAVE THE HIGHEST /CHC/ POPS LATE. THERE MAY ALSO
BE ANOTHER AREA OF FOCUS, WHICH IS OFFSHORE WHERE THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE STRONGER THETA-E ADVECTION INTERACTS WITH SOME INSTABILITY
PARTIALLY DUE TO THE GULF STREAM. OVERALL, THE CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
TO LOWER SOME THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AND THE POPS WERE
GRADUALLY INCREASED AS WELL.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WITH THE THICKENING CLOUDS AND A WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE IT WILL BE A MILDER NIGHT. OVERALL, WE
USED A MOS BLEND WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WRF-NMMB 500MB INITIALIZATION WAS BETTER THAN THE GFS OR THE
ECMWF. THE LATTER WAS TOO AMPLIFIED FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WESTWARD. THIS PRESENTS THE FCST CONUNDRUM AS THE DP/DT IS SHOWING
STRONGER RIDGING IN CENTRAL NOAM VS LAST NIGHT`S SOUNDING RUN. WE
SEEM TO BE VACILLATING AROUND A LINE VS TRENDING STEADILY IN ANY
SPECIFIC, CONSISTENT DIRECTION. E.G. AT 78 HRS THE CAN
GGEM/WRF/GFS/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SFC LOWS ARE STACKED ON TOP OF ONE
ANOTHER. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS GOING TO GO WITH THIS CONSENSUS
AS IT INCLUDES THE BETTER INITIALIZED CLUSTERING PLUS THERE IS NO
CLEAR CUT DP/DT. IN THE GRAND SCHEME, IT WILL NOT MAKE THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK PLEASANT, JUST A SLIGHTLY FASTER IMPROVEMENT THAN THE
ECMWF HAS FOR THE LATTER PART.

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODELING AGREEMENT ON TUESDAY MORNING OF OUR
CWA BEING IN A RELATIVE PCPN LULL BETWEEN IMPULSES. POPS INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
OUR CWA AND IT BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE ALOFT. OTHER THAN THE WRF-NMMB,
OTHER MODELS ARE NOT UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR THUNDER. THE 18Z WRF WAS
THE MOST UNSTABLE OF THE 21 SREF MEMBERS IN OUR CWA, SO SHOWERS YES,
BUT NO THUNDER. MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO A STAT GUIDANCE BLEND.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT THERE IS STILL A CONVECTIVE LOOK TO THE SOUNDINGS
AND INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE JUST OFFSHORE. THIS GETS TRICKY
WITH THE 2NDRY CYCLOGEN AS TO HOW QUICKLY WILL PCPN GET GENERATED
PLUS ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTIVE TRIGGERING. THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENT
TO IT HAS BEEN PRODUCING VERY LITTLE CONSISTENCY IN THE QPF FIELDS
OTHER THAN TO SUGGEST HEAVIER RAIN BECOMES A POSSIBILITY EAST. THE
SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN IN A STEADY LINE TRENDING A LITTLE
BIT SLOWER. SO FOR NOW WHILE WE HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS MOST OF
OUR CWA, WE DO NOT HAVE MODERATE RAIN MENTIONED.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY FCST TIME PERIOD FOR RAIN,
ESPECIALLY EAST AS OUR CWA WILL BE IN THE MOST DIVERGENT LOCATION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND THE STGST FCST MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE.
WE UPPED POPS AND ARE CARRYING SOME MODERATE INTENSITY RAIN EAST.
THE ONGOING 2NDRY CYCLOGENESIS APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING TOO CLOSE TO
OUR CWA TO PRODUCE A LONG ENOUGH FETCH OR PERIOD OF ONSHORE WINDS
FOR TIDAL FLOODING. IF THE LOW DOES FORM FARTHER TO THE SOUTH, THE
CHANCES FOR TIDAL FLOODING WOULD INCREASE. WE ARE ASSISTED ALSO THAT
THE MOON`S PERIGEE DOES NOT COINCIDE WITH THE NEW MOON AND THE
HIGHEST SPRING TIDES WITH THIS LUNAR PHASE ARE ON THE WEEKEND, TWO
DAYS AFTER THE NEW MOON.

MODELS START DIVERGING COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS TO HOW MUCH PCPN WILL
GET WRAPPED INTO OUR CWA. THE CONSENSUS IS A LONGER MORE CIRCUITOUS
ROUTE FOR IT TO GET BACK INTO OUR AREA. WE LOSE THE PREDICTED HIGHER
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LEANS MORE TOWARD SMALLER RAIN DROPS OR DRIZZLE
AS A PREDOMINATE PTYPE. THIS DIVERGENCE IN THE MODELS CONTINUES ON
THURSDAY AS TO HOW MUCH PCPN CAN WRAP BACK INTO OUR CWA. THE
CONSENSUS CLUSTERING IS THAT MOST OF THIS WILL BE NORTH OF OUR CWA.
POPS WERE KEPT AS CHANCE, BUT THE PERSISTENT NE FLOW WILL NOT MAKE
FOR TOO NICE A DAY. BY WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY WE ARE
GOING BELOW STAT GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH AT LEAST A WELL
TIMED BREAK COME THE WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO GENERATE SHOWERS. AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED A PREDICTED TELECONNECTION SWITCH TO A POSITIVE AO/NAO AND
NEGATIVE PNA WILL BRING A MILDER REGIME BACK INTO THE CONUS. NOT
SURPRISING WE ARE HAVING A PCPN EVENT DURING THIS SWITCH EITHER. SO
BY THE WEEKEND FAIR WEATHER RETURNS ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR, WITH A CEILING AT TIMES MAINLY AT OR ABOVE 15000 FEET.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR, WITH A CEILING LOWERING TO BETWEEN 5000-8000 FEET.
SOME SHOWERS MAY APPROACH KABE AND KRDG TOWARD DAYBREAK.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS, AND EVEN BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT SOME TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...SOME MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY DUE TO CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS
(MAINLY CIGS) WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS (MAINLY DUE TO CIGS AGAIN)
SHOULD OCCUR. HIGHEST POSSIBILITIES EASTERN TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS.
GUSTIER NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

THURSDAY...PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS. GREATEST DURATION NORTHERN
AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BECOMING VFR THURSDAY NIGHT AND VFR
FRIDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE.


&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST ALLOWING A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
FOR MUCH OF TODAY, HOWEVER IS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SOME LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR A TIME. THE OVERALL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD
BE LIGHT ENOUGH THOUGH TO KEEP THE WINDS BELOW 25 KNOTS. THE SEAS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE AT OR BELOW 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A PROTRACTED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SECONDARY LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD INCREASE THE GRADIENT ON
WEDNESDAY AND MORE CONFIDENTLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD LIKELY PEAK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SLOW
IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER WITH DELAWARE BAY FIRST TO LOOSE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-061-
     062.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ060-101>106.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010-
     020>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>019-023.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GAINES/GIGI
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GAINES/GIGI/GORSE
MARINE...GAINES/GIGI/GORSE







000
FXUS61 KPHI 200814
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
414 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR NORFOLK WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST REACHING OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LINE ON TUESDAY AND THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST, REACHING CAPE
COD ON THURSDAY AND NOVA SCOTIA ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BRIEFLY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REACHING THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FROST ADVISORY AND FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EARLY
THIS MORNING, AS MANY AREAS ARE WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S. THE HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS THOUGH MAY HAVE SLOWED THE TEMPERATURE DROP A LITTLE
FOR SOME SPOTS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TODAY ALLOWING A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE TO DEVELOP. THIS FLOW WILL BE MUCH
LESS COMPARED TO THE GUSTINESS THAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY. A ROBUST
SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST WILL HELP CARVE OUT
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS, SOME WEAK WAA IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
PRESENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL SPREAD AREAS OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MAIN LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST,
THEREFORE WE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST TODAY. WE DID CARRY SOME
ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS THOUGH FOR MANY AREAS.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE USED A MODEL/MOS BLEND WHICH RESULTS
IN MILDER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THIS LINES UP WITH THE
WEAK WAA THAT IS ALSO FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH A
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST. AS THIS OCCURS, LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING AT THE
SURFACE IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT.

THERE IS SOME WAA BEING MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT OVERALL
THE BEST FOCUS FOR THIS IS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. IN
ADDITION, A DECENT SHOT OF LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION IS FORECAST
TO ARRIVE THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS AND THE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE, SOME
SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP. THIS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES
WHICH IS WHERE WE HAVE THE HIGHEST /CHC/ POPS LATE. THERE MAY ALSO
BE ANOTHER AREA OF FOCUS, WHICH IS OFFSHORE WHERE THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE STRONGER THETA-E ADVECTION INTERACTS WITH SOME INSTABILITY
PARTIALLY DUE TO THE GULF STREAM. OVERALL, THE CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
TO LOWER SOME THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AND THE POPS WERE
GRADUALLY INCREASED AS WELL.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WITH THE THICKENING CLOUDS AND A WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE IT WILL BE A MILDER NIGHT. OVERALL, WE
USED A MOS BLEND WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WRF-NMMB 500MB INITIALIZATION WAS BETTER THAN THE GFS OR THE
ECMWF. THE LATTER WAS TOO AMPLIFIED FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WESTWARD. THIS PRESENTS THE FCST CONUNDRUM AS THE DP/DT IS SHOWING
STRONGER RIDGING IN CENTRAL NOAM VS LAST NIGHT`S SOUNDING RUN. WE
SEEM TO BE VACILLATING AROUND A LINE VS TRENDING STEADILY IN ANY
SPECIFIC, CONSISTENT DIRECTION. E.G. AT 78 HRS THE CAN
GGEM/WRF/GFS/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SFC LOWS ARE STACKED ON TOP OF ONE
ANOTHER. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS GOING TO GO WITH THIS CONSENSUS
AS IT INCLUDES THE BETTER INITIALIZED CLUSTERING PLUS THERE IS NO
CLEAR CUT DP/DT. IN THE GRAND SCHEME, IT WILL NOT MAKE THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK PLEASANT, JUST A SLIGHTLY FASTER IMPROVEMENT THAN THE
ECMWF HAS FOR THE LATTER PART.

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODELING AGREEMENT ON TUESDAY MORNING OF OUR
CWA BEING IN A RELATIVE PCPN LULL BETWEEN IMPULSES. POPS INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
OUR CWA AND IT BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE ALOFT. OTHER THAN THE WRF-NMMB,
OTHER MODELS ARE NOT UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR THUNDER. THE 18Z WRF WAS
THE MOST UNSTABLE OF THE 21 SREF MEMBERS IN OUR CWA, SO SHOWERS YES,
BUT NO THUNDER. MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO A STAT GUIDANCE BLEND.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT THERE IS STILL A CONVECTIVE LOOK TO THE SOUNDINGS
AND INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE JUST OFFSHORE. THIS GETS TRICKY
WITH THE 2NDRY CYCLOGEN AS TO HOW QUICKLY WILL PCPN GET GENERATED
PLUS ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTIVE TRIGGERING. THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENT
TO IT HAS BEEN PRODUCING VERY LITTLE CONSISTENCY IN THE QPF FIELDS
OTHER THAN TO SUGGEST HEAVIER RAIN BECOMES A POSSIBILITY EAST. THE
SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN IN A STEADY LINE TRENDING A LITTLE
BIT SLOWER. SO FOR NOW WHILE WE HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS MOST OF
OUR CWA, WE DO NOT HAVE MODERATE RAIN MENTIONED.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY FCST TIME PERIOD FOR RAIN,
ESPECIALLY EAST AS OUR CWA WILL BE IN THE MOST DIVERGENT LOCATION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND THE STGST FCST MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE.
WE UPPED POPS AND ARE CARRYING SOME MODERATE INTENSITY RAIN EAST.
THE ONGOING 2NDRY CYCLOGENESIS APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING TOO CLOSE TO
OUR CWA TO PRODUCE A LONG ENOUGH FETCH OR PERIOD OF ONSHORE WINDS
FOR TIDAL FLOODING. IF THE LOW DOES FORM FARTHER TO THE SOUTH, THE
CHANCES FOR TIDAL FLOODING WOULD INCREASE. WE ARE ASSISTED ALSO THAT
THE MOON`S PERIGEE DOES NOT COINCIDE WITH THE NEW MOON AND THE
HIGHEST SPRING TIDES WITH THIS LUNAR PHASE ARE ON THE WEEKEND, TWO
DAYS AFTER THE NEW MOON.

MODELS START DIVERGING COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS TO HOW MUCH PCPN WILL
GET WRAPPED INTO OUR CWA. THE CONSENSUS IS A LONGER MORE CIRCUITOUS
ROUTE FOR IT TO GET BACK INTO OUR AREA. WE LOSE THE PREDICTED HIGHER
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LEANS MORE TOWARD SMALLER RAIN DROPS OR DRIZZLE
AS A PREDOMINATE PTYPE. THIS DIVERGENCE IN THE MODELS CONTINUES ON
THURSDAY AS TO HOW MUCH PCPN CAN WRAP BACK INTO OUR CWA. THE
CONSENSUS CLUSTERING IS THAT MOST OF THIS WILL BE NORTH OF OUR CWA.
POPS WERE KEPT AS CHANCE, BUT THE PERSISTENT NE FLOW WILL NOT MAKE
FOR TOO NICE A DAY. BY WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY WE ARE
GOING BELOW STAT GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH AT LEAST A WELL
TIMED BREAK COME THE WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO GENERATE SHOWERS. AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED A PREDICTED TELECONNECTION SWITCH TO A POSITIVE AO/NAO AND
NEGATIVE PNA WILL BRING A MILDER REGIME BACK INTO THE CONUS. NOT
SURPRISING WE ARE HAVING A PCPN EVENT DURING THIS SWITCH EITHER. SO
BY THE WEEKEND FAIR WEATHER RETURNS ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR, WITH A CEILING AT TIMES MAINLY AT OR ABOVE 15000 FEET.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR, WITH A CEILING LOWERING TO BETWEEN 5000-8000 FEET.
SOME SHOWERS MAY APPROACH KABE AND KRDG TOWARD DAYBREAK.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS, AND EVEN BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT SOME TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...SOME MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY DUE TO CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS
(MAINLY CIGS) WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS (MAINLY DUE TO CIGS AGAIN)
SHOULD OCCUR. HIGHEST POSSIBILITIES EASTERN TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS.
GUSTIER NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

THURSDAY...PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS. GREATEST DURATION NORTHERN
AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BECOMING VFR THURSDAY NIGHT AND VFR
FRIDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE.


&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST ALLOWING A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
FOR MUCH OF TODAY, HOWEVER IS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SOME LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR A TIME. THE OVERALL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD
BE LIGHT ENOUGH THOUGH TO KEEP THE WINDS BELOW 25 KNOTS. THE SEAS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE AT OR BELOW 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A PROTRACTED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SECONDARY LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD INCREASE THE GRADIENT ON
WEDNESDAY AND MORE CONFIDENTLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD LIKELY PEAK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SLOW
IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER WITH DELAWARE BAY FIRST TO LOOSE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-061-
     062.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ060-101>106.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010-
     020>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>019-023.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GAINES/GIGI
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GAINES/GIGI/GORSE
MARINE...GAINES/GIGI/GORSE






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200810
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
410 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING OFF
THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S INLAND TO LOW-MID 40S NEAR
THE COAST THANKS TO EXCEPTIONAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. CIRRUS HAVING
LITTLE IMPACT ON THE FALLING TEMPS...BUT DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER
30S HAVE RESULTED IN A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP ANOTHER DEG OR TWO THRU SUNRISE...WITH SOME
INLAND LOCALES WAKING UP TO FROST.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE TODAY...WITH SLY RETURN FLOW/WAA
COMMENCING. ALOFT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY...DOWNSTREAM OF AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE OVER
THE WRN CONUS. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REACHES THE OH VALLEY LATE
TODAY. INCREASING WINDS ALOFT AND LEADWAVE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
PROVIDE DYNAMICAL FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE REGION...BUT DUE TO A
DRY AIR MASS PER BUFR SOUNDINGS AND PWATS AROUND 0.75 INCHES...WILL
ONLY SEE INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS LATE TODAY. LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES INCREASE NEARLY 20 M TODAY THANKS TO SLY SFC WINDS OF
10-15 MPH AND SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS. H85 TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 12C.
TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FLOW AMPLIFIES DURING THE SHORT TERM AS A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS
OVER THE ERN CONUS. ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES
TUES THANKS TO A 100+ KT JET STREAK DIVING SWD FROM S CNTRL CANADA.
AS A RESULT...UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NE STATES. THE UPPER LOW WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD TUES NIGHT
INTO WEDS...LOCATING OFFSHORE LATE WEDS. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW DROPS
INTO THE NE STATES TONIGHT WITH A ATTENDANT COLD FRONT REACHING THE
LOCAL AREA EARLY TUES MORNING. MEANWHILE...AN INVERTED
TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPS ALONG/JUST OFF THE SE/MID-ATLANTIC
COAST AS THE SFC HIGH PUSHES WELL OFFSHORE. SHORTWAVE/HEIGHT FALLS
AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE
FRONT...BUT A MOISTURE STARVED AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN LITTLE MORE
THAN LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NW LOCAL AREA. BEST COVERAGE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT TUES MORNING. THE STACKED
LOW CROSSES THE AREA TUES...LOCATING JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
LATE TUES. VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE UVM OVER THE REGION...BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL BE NEAREST THE SFC LOW/BEST MOISTURE OVER THE N AND NE
LOCAL AREA. AS THE LOW LOCATES OFFSHORE TUES NIGHT...BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE ERN SHORE. MOSTLY CLOUDY-CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TUES ACROSS THE N-NE TO PARTLY CLOUDY SW. HIGHS TUES
PROGGED IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS
AS THE TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WL THEREFORE KEEP
FORECAST DRY WEST OF I-95 ON WED, WITH LOW CHC POP FARTHER EAST
FOR SOME SCT SHRAS OVER COASTAL AREAS/ERN SHORE. HIGHS WED
REMAIN BELOW CLIMO NUMBERS...GENERALLY IN THE L-M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WED NIGHT THRU
FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS (~30%) ACROSS FAR EASTERN
ZONES WED NIGHT...LOWERING TO SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) OVER THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE ON THURS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COASTAL LOW LATE IN THE COMING WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...PUSHING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION NEXT SUNDAY. DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED.
HIGHS THU 60-65...THEN FRI-SUN IN THE MID/UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE 40S
TO LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY/VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT...JUST SOME INCREASING
MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACRS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME S/SW TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTN.

OUTLOOK...NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
THEN LINGERS OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING ALONG
WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS. WINDS FROM THE NW ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE NEAR TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD/MUCH
LIGHTER WINDS...AND COASTAL SEAS NOW 3-4 FT OR LESS THROUGHOUT THE
REGION. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE LATER TODAY...ALLOWING
WINDS TO TURN TO THE S/SW. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT THIS
AFTN/EVENING...EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH WIND SPEEDS
AVERAGING UP TO 15-20 KT ACRS NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...GENLY 10-15
KT ELSEWHERE. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE WATERS LATE TUE
AFTN/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY EVENTUAL SCA CONDITIONS AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. WITH SYSTEM EXPECTED TO STALL
OFFSHORE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS IS LIKELY. WITH FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM THE NW...SEAS
WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200810
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
410 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING OFF
THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S INLAND TO LOW-MID 40S NEAR
THE COAST THANKS TO EXCEPTIONAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. CIRRUS HAVING
LITTLE IMPACT ON THE FALLING TEMPS...BUT DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER
30S HAVE RESULTED IN A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP ANOTHER DEG OR TWO THRU SUNRISE...WITH SOME
INLAND LOCALES WAKING UP TO FROST.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE TODAY...WITH SLY RETURN FLOW/WAA
COMMENCING. ALOFT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY...DOWNSTREAM OF AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE OVER
THE WRN CONUS. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REACHES THE OH VALLEY LATE
TODAY. INCREASING WINDS ALOFT AND LEADWAVE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
PROVIDE DYNAMICAL FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE REGION...BUT DUE TO A
DRY AIR MASS PER BUFR SOUNDINGS AND PWATS AROUND 0.75 INCHES...WILL
ONLY SEE INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS LATE TODAY. LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES INCREASE NEARLY 20 M TODAY THANKS TO SLY SFC WINDS OF
10-15 MPH AND SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS. H85 TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 12C.
TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FLOW AMPLIFIES DURING THE SHORT TERM AS A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS
OVER THE ERN CONUS. ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES
TUES THANKS TO A 100+ KT JET STREAK DIVING SWD FROM S CNTRL CANADA.
AS A RESULT...UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NE STATES. THE UPPER LOW WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD TUES NIGHT
INTO WEDS...LOCATING OFFSHORE LATE WEDS. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW DROPS
INTO THE NE STATES TONIGHT WITH A ATTENDANT COLD FRONT REACHING THE
LOCAL AREA EARLY TUES MORNING. MEANWHILE...AN INVERTED
TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPS ALONG/JUST OFF THE SE/MID-ATLANTIC
COAST AS THE SFC HIGH PUSHES WELL OFFSHORE. SHORTWAVE/HEIGHT FALLS
AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE
FRONT...BUT A MOISTURE STARVED AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN LITTLE MORE
THAN LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NW LOCAL AREA. BEST COVERAGE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT TUES MORNING. THE STACKED
LOW CROSSES THE AREA TUES...LOCATING JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
LATE TUES. VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE UVM OVER THE REGION...BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL BE NEAREST THE SFC LOW/BEST MOISTURE OVER THE N AND NE
LOCAL AREA. AS THE LOW LOCATES OFFSHORE TUES NIGHT...BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE ERN SHORE. MOSTLY CLOUDY-CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TUES ACROSS THE N-NE TO PARTLY CLOUDY SW. HIGHS TUES
PROGGED IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS
AS THE TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WL THEREFORE KEEP
FORECAST DRY WEST OF I-95 ON WED, WITH LOW CHC POP FARTHER EAST
FOR SOME SCT SHRAS OVER COASTAL AREAS/ERN SHORE. HIGHS WED
REMAIN BELOW CLIMO NUMBERS...GENERALLY IN THE L-M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WED NIGHT THRU
FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS (~30%) ACROSS FAR EASTERN
ZONES WED NIGHT...LOWERING TO SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) OVER THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE ON THURS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COASTAL LOW LATE IN THE COMING WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...PUSHING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION NEXT SUNDAY. DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED.
HIGHS THU 60-65...THEN FRI-SUN IN THE MID/UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE 40S
TO LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY/VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT...JUST SOME INCREASING
MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACRS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME S/SW TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTN.

OUTLOOK...NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
THEN LINGERS OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING ALONG
WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS. WINDS FROM THE NW ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE NEAR TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD/MUCH
LIGHTER WINDS...AND COASTAL SEAS NOW 3-4 FT OR LESS THROUGHOUT THE
REGION. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE LATER TODAY...ALLOWING
WINDS TO TURN TO THE S/SW. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT THIS
AFTN/EVENING...EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH WIND SPEEDS
AVERAGING UP TO 15-20 KT ACRS NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...GENLY 10-15
KT ELSEWHERE. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE WATERS LATE TUE
AFTN/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY EVENTUAL SCA CONDITIONS AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. WITH SYSTEM EXPECTED TO STALL
OFFSHORE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS IS LIKELY. WITH FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM THE NW...SEAS
WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB







000
FXUS61 KLWX 200800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL
ENTER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...PERSISTING OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

AS OF 07Z...1021MB SFC HIGH IS OVER SERN VA WITH A 1007MB SFC LOW
OVER THE UP OF MICHIGAN. MOSTLY TRANSPARENT CIRRUS HAVE MOVED OVER
THE ARE SO FAR TONIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE MID TO
UPR 30S FOR MOST INTERIOR LOCALES (INCLUDING SOUTHERN MARYLAND).

SINCE THE SFC HIGH WILL BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES...EXPECT A QUICK WARM UP AFTER SUNRISE IN RETURN FLOW.
WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE TODAY WITH SLY/SWLY FLOW GUSTING UP TO 20 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON. 925MB TEMPS AROUND 12C...MAX TEMPS MID TO UPR 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES LOW WILL CROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
AND LIGHT SHOWERS AHEAD PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH MAINLY WLY FLOW. THE DOWNSLOPE
WILL COUNTERACT THE HEIGHT FALLS. THEREFORE...WENT WITH SCATTERED
COVERAGE FOR POPS THROUGH THE DAY. MAX TEMPS LOWER THAN MONDAY NW OF
DC FROM CLOUD COVER. COULD IT 70F SE FROM DC SHOULD THE CLOUDS HOLD
OFF LONG ENOUGH.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THE 1ST PART OF THE XTND WL BE CONTROLLED BY THE CLOSED/VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW PRES AREA. MUCH OF THE RMDR WL BE INFLUENCED BY A
RETURN TO HIGH PRES.

TUE NGT AND WED SHOULD BE CLDY. "SHOWERY" MAY BE THE BEST WORD TO
DESCRIBE THIS PD. NOT RAINY...JUST PDS OF RAIN W/ RLVTLY LOW QPF.
TEMP-WISE NOT MUCH OF A DIURNAL VARIATION - LOWS IN THE U40S/HIGHS
IN THE MU50S.

THE LOW IS XPCTD TO SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS SRN NEW ENGLAND...W/ HIGH
PRES WORKING ITS WAY BACK INTO THE RGN ON NWRLY WINDS. BRZY/
BLUSTERY MIGHT BE GOOD WORDSTO DESCRIBE THU AS THE HIGHER PRES
BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLC. HIGHS RANGING FM THE U40S IN THE
HIGHLANDS TO THE L60S NEAR THE CHES BAY. MAJORITY OF THE AREA
SHOULD HV HIGHS IN THE 50S.

AFTR THAT A SLOW WARMING TREND SHOULD TAKE PLACE UNDER M SUNNY
DAYTIME SKIES LEADING INTO THE WKND. HIGH TEMPS FOR THE UPCOMING
WKND XPCTD TO BE IN THE M60S OVR MOST OF THE AREA. LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

VFR CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH RETURN
SLY/SWLY FLOW GUSTING UP TO 18 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH DOWNSLOPING WLY FLOW LIMITING RAIN
COVERAGE TO SCATTERED.

TUE NGT/WED XPCTD TO BE CLDY. HGTS WL PRBLY IN THE "LOW VFR
RANGE"...PSBLY DESCENDING INTO MVFR. SKIES SHOULD IMPRV THU AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...

RETURN FLOW TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF SHORE. SCA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FOR MD BAY SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND FOR SLY
CHANNELING UP TO 20 KT. WEAK COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT SHIFTS WINDS
WEST. WLY FLOW TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

SCA CONDS XPCTD WED NGT AND THU...PSBLY CONT INTO FRI.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ003>007-009-
     010-501-502.
VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ025>031-
     036>040-042-050>053-501-502.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ050>053-055-
     502>504.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ501-505-506.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

PRODUCTS...BAJ/WOODY!







000
FXUS61 KLWX 200800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL
ENTER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...PERSISTING OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

AS OF 07Z...1021MB SFC HIGH IS OVER SERN VA WITH A 1007MB SFC LOW
OVER THE UP OF MICHIGAN. MOSTLY TRANSPARENT CIRRUS HAVE MOVED OVER
THE ARE SO FAR TONIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE MID TO
UPR 30S FOR MOST INTERIOR LOCALES (INCLUDING SOUTHERN MARYLAND).

SINCE THE SFC HIGH WILL BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES...EXPECT A QUICK WARM UP AFTER SUNRISE IN RETURN FLOW.
WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE TODAY WITH SLY/SWLY FLOW GUSTING UP TO 20 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON. 925MB TEMPS AROUND 12C...MAX TEMPS MID TO UPR 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES LOW WILL CROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
AND LIGHT SHOWERS AHEAD PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH MAINLY WLY FLOW. THE DOWNSLOPE
WILL COUNTERACT THE HEIGHT FALLS. THEREFORE...WENT WITH SCATTERED
COVERAGE FOR POPS THROUGH THE DAY. MAX TEMPS LOWER THAN MONDAY NW OF
DC FROM CLOUD COVER. COULD IT 70F SE FROM DC SHOULD THE CLOUDS HOLD
OFF LONG ENOUGH.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THE 1ST PART OF THE XTND WL BE CONTROLLED BY THE CLOSED/VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW PRES AREA. MUCH OF THE RMDR WL BE INFLUENCED BY A
RETURN TO HIGH PRES.

TUE NGT AND WED SHOULD BE CLDY. "SHOWERY" MAY BE THE BEST WORD TO
DESCRIBE THIS PD. NOT RAINY...JUST PDS OF RAIN W/ RLVTLY LOW QPF.
TEMP-WISE NOT MUCH OF A DIURNAL VARIATION - LOWS IN THE U40S/HIGHS
IN THE MU50S.

THE LOW IS XPCTD TO SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS SRN NEW ENGLAND...W/ HIGH
PRES WORKING ITS WAY BACK INTO THE RGN ON NWRLY WINDS. BRZY/
BLUSTERY MIGHT BE GOOD WORDSTO DESCRIBE THU AS THE HIGHER PRES
BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLC. HIGHS RANGING FM THE U40S IN THE
HIGHLANDS TO THE L60S NEAR THE CHES BAY. MAJORITY OF THE AREA
SHOULD HV HIGHS IN THE 50S.

AFTR THAT A SLOW WARMING TREND SHOULD TAKE PLACE UNDER M SUNNY
DAYTIME SKIES LEADING INTO THE WKND. HIGH TEMPS FOR THE UPCOMING
WKND XPCTD TO BE IN THE M60S OVR MOST OF THE AREA. LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

VFR CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH RETURN
SLY/SWLY FLOW GUSTING UP TO 18 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH DOWNSLOPING WLY FLOW LIMITING RAIN
COVERAGE TO SCATTERED.

TUE NGT/WED XPCTD TO BE CLDY. HGTS WL PRBLY IN THE "LOW VFR
RANGE"...PSBLY DESCENDING INTO MVFR. SKIES SHOULD IMPRV THU AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...

RETURN FLOW TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF SHORE. SCA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FOR MD BAY SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND FOR SLY
CHANNELING UP TO 20 KT. WEAK COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT SHIFTS WINDS
WEST. WLY FLOW TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

SCA CONDS XPCTD WED NGT AND THU...PSBLY CONT INTO FRI.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ003>007-009-
     010-501-502.
VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ025>031-
     036>040-042-050>053-501-502.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ050>053-055-
     502>504.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ501-505-506.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

PRODUCTS...BAJ/WOODY!








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200738
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
338 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER CHANCES WILL RESUME AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WARM ADVCTN AND THICKENING CLD COVER WL PRECLUDE MUCH MORE OF A
TEMP DROP THIS MRNG...WITH MANY READINGS FM ALNG AND N OF I 70
RISING. THE FROST ADVISORY FOR THE CNTIES SURROUNDING MORGANTOWN
WAS THUS DROPPED EARLY AS WIDESPREAD FROST IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH
EXTENSIVE CIRROSTRATUS SHIELD/ENCROACHING ALTOSTRATUS AND GENL
TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S IN THE ADVISORY AREA EXPECTED TO BEGIN RISING
BEFORE SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...THE APCHG SHRTWV THAT IS SPEWING UPR AND MID LVL CLDINESS
OVR THE REGION...IS STILL EXPECTED TO GENERATE SHWRS OVR BY EVE.
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR LGT PCPN HAVE BEEN CONTINUED...BUT
OVRALL NMBRS WERE TEMPERED AND TIMING FURTHER ADJUSTED FOR A
LATER START GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE DRY LYR ON THE EVE SNDING AS
WELL AS THE LATEST MDL TRENDS.

MRNG TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING HRLY LAMP GUIDANCE AND RAP NMBRS...WHILE
COOL DAYTIME HIGHS WERE TWEAKED USING GFS MOSGUIDE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A JET STREAK MOVG THROUGH THE WRN FLANK OF THE EWD SHIFT UPR TROF
IS PROGGED TO CARVE A CUTOFF LOW OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION BY
LATE TUESDAY. COOLING MID LVLS WITH THAT SYSTEM WL LOWER CONVECTIVE
THRESHOLDS AND SPPRT SHWR ACTIVITY THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH PARTICULAR
EMPHASIS OVR UPSLOPE REGIONS TO THE N AND E OF PITTSBURGH.

BY THURSDAY...MDL WORLD PROJECTS SUFFICIENT COASTAL DVLPMNT/DEEPENING
TO DIMINISH POPS OVR THE IMMEDIATE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SHRTWV/VORT
PROJECTIONS THROUGH THE WRN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM IS MINIMAL...SO
HAVE MAINTAINED AT LEAST SLGT POPS OVR THE RIDGES THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EWD PROGRESS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR LOW WITH EXPANDING RIDGE OVR
THE CNTRL CONUS SHOULD ENSURE A GENLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CLOSE
TO THE WEEK. TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO REPRESENT THE LONG TERM
PD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPD WITH INCRG AC/CS THRU TDA AHD OF AN APCHG
SHRTWV. THIS SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS EXPD TO BRING MVFR
CONDS AND INCRG SHWR CHCS THIS EVE AND OVRNGT.

.AVIATION /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL THRU MID WK AS AN UPR LOW DRIFTS ACRS THE
RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

15/07

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200738
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
338 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER CHANCES WILL RESUME AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WARM ADVCTN AND THICKENING CLD COVER WL PRECLUDE MUCH MORE OF A
TEMP DROP THIS MRNG...WITH MANY READINGS FM ALNG AND N OF I 70
RISING. THE FROST ADVISORY FOR THE CNTIES SURROUNDING MORGANTOWN
WAS THUS DROPPED EARLY AS WIDESPREAD FROST IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH
EXTENSIVE CIRROSTRATUS SHIELD/ENCROACHING ALTOSTRATUS AND GENL
TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S IN THE ADVISORY AREA EXPECTED TO BEGIN RISING
BEFORE SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...THE APCHG SHRTWV THAT IS SPEWING UPR AND MID LVL CLDINESS
OVR THE REGION...IS STILL EXPECTED TO GENERATE SHWRS OVR BY EVE.
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR LGT PCPN HAVE BEEN CONTINUED...BUT
OVRALL NMBRS WERE TEMPERED AND TIMING FURTHER ADJUSTED FOR A
LATER START GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE DRY LYR ON THE EVE SNDING AS
WELL AS THE LATEST MDL TRENDS.

MRNG TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING HRLY LAMP GUIDANCE AND RAP NMBRS...WHILE
COOL DAYTIME HIGHS WERE TWEAKED USING GFS MOSGUIDE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A JET STREAK MOVG THROUGH THE WRN FLANK OF THE EWD SHIFT UPR TROF
IS PROGGED TO CARVE A CUTOFF LOW OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION BY
LATE TUESDAY. COOLING MID LVLS WITH THAT SYSTEM WL LOWER CONVECTIVE
THRESHOLDS AND SPPRT SHWR ACTIVITY THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH PARTICULAR
EMPHASIS OVR UPSLOPE REGIONS TO THE N AND E OF PITTSBURGH.

BY THURSDAY...MDL WORLD PROJECTS SUFFICIENT COASTAL DVLPMNT/DEEPENING
TO DIMINISH POPS OVR THE IMMEDIATE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SHRTWV/VORT
PROJECTIONS THROUGH THE WRN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM IS MINIMAL...SO
HAVE MAINTAINED AT LEAST SLGT POPS OVR THE RIDGES THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EWD PROGRESS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR LOW WITH EXPANDING RIDGE OVR
THE CNTRL CONUS SHOULD ENSURE A GENLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CLOSE
TO THE WEEK. TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO REPRESENT THE LONG TERM
PD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPD WITH INCRG AC/CS THRU TDA AHD OF AN APCHG
SHRTWV. THIS SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS EXPD TO BRING MVFR
CONDS AND INCRG SHWR CHCS THIS EVE AND OVRNGT.

.AVIATION /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL THRU MID WK AS AN UPR LOW DRIFTS ACRS THE
RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

15/07

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200738
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
338 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER CHANCES WILL RESUME AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WARM ADVCTN AND THICKENING CLD COVER WL PRECLUDE MUCH MORE OF A
TEMP DROP THIS MRNG...WITH MANY READINGS FM ALNG AND N OF I 70
RISING. THE FROST ADVISORY FOR THE CNTIES SURROUNDING MORGANTOWN
WAS THUS DROPPED EARLY AS WIDESPREAD FROST IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH
EXTENSIVE CIRROSTRATUS SHIELD/ENCROACHING ALTOSTRATUS AND GENL
TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S IN THE ADVISORY AREA EXPECTED TO BEGIN RISING
BEFORE SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...THE APCHG SHRTWV THAT IS SPEWING UPR AND MID LVL CLDINESS
OVR THE REGION...IS STILL EXPECTED TO GENERATE SHWRS OVR BY EVE.
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR LGT PCPN HAVE BEEN CONTINUED...BUT
OVRALL NMBRS WERE TEMPERED AND TIMING FURTHER ADJUSTED FOR A
LATER START GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE DRY LYR ON THE EVE SNDING AS
WELL AS THE LATEST MDL TRENDS.

MRNG TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING HRLY LAMP GUIDANCE AND RAP NMBRS...WHILE
COOL DAYTIME HIGHS WERE TWEAKED USING GFS MOSGUIDE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A JET STREAK MOVG THROUGH THE WRN FLANK OF THE EWD SHIFT UPR TROF
IS PROGGED TO CARVE A CUTOFF LOW OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION BY
LATE TUESDAY. COOLING MID LVLS WITH THAT SYSTEM WL LOWER CONVECTIVE
THRESHOLDS AND SPPRT SHWR ACTIVITY THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH PARTICULAR
EMPHASIS OVR UPSLOPE REGIONS TO THE N AND E OF PITTSBURGH.

BY THURSDAY...MDL WORLD PROJECTS SUFFICIENT COASTAL DVLPMNT/DEEPENING
TO DIMINISH POPS OVR THE IMMEDIATE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SHRTWV/VORT
PROJECTIONS THROUGH THE WRN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM IS MINIMAL...SO
HAVE MAINTAINED AT LEAST SLGT POPS OVR THE RIDGES THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EWD PROGRESS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR LOW WITH EXPANDING RIDGE OVR
THE CNTRL CONUS SHOULD ENSURE A GENLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CLOSE
TO THE WEEK. TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO REPRESENT THE LONG TERM
PD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPD WITH INCRG AC/CS THRU TDA AHD OF AN APCHG
SHRTWV. THIS SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS EXPD TO BRING MVFR
CONDS AND INCRG SHWR CHCS THIS EVE AND OVRNGT.

.AVIATION /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL THRU MID WK AS AN UPR LOW DRIFTS ACRS THE
RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

15/07

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 200736
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
336 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR NORFOLK WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST REACHING OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LINE ON TUESDAY AND THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST, REACHING CAPE
COD ON THURSDAY AND NOVA SCOTIA ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BRIEFLY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REACHING THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FROST ADVISORY AND FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EARLY
THIS MORNING, AS MANY AREAS ARE WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S. THE HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS THOUGH MAY HAVE SLOWED THE TEMPERATURE DROP A LITTLE
FOR SOME SPOTS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TODAY ALLOWING A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE TO DEVELOP. THIS FLOW WILL BE MUCH
LESS COMPARED TO THE GUSTINESS THAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY. A ROBUST
SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST WILL HELP CARVE OUT
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS, SOME WEAK WAA IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
PRESENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL SPREAD AREAS OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MAIN LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST,
THEREFORE WE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST TODAY. WE DID CARRY SOME
ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS THOUGH FOR MANY AREAS.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE USED A MODEL/MOS BLEND WHICH RESULTS
IN MILDER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THIS LINES UP WITH THE
WEAK WAA THAT IS ALSO FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH A
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST. AS THIS OCCURS, LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING AT THE
SURFACE IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT.

THERE IS SOME WAA BEING MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT OVERALL
THE BEST FOCUS FOR THIS IS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. IN
ADDITION, A DECENT SHOT OF LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION IS FORECAST
TO ARRIVE THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS AND THE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE, SOME
SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP. THIS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES
WHICH IS WHERE WE HAVE THE HIGHEST /CHC/ POPS LATE. THERE MAY ALSO
BE ANOTHER AREA OF FOCUS, WHICH IS OFFSHORE WHERE THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE STRONGER THETA-E ADVECTION INTERACTS WITH SOME INSTABILITY
PARTIALLY DUE TO THE GULF STREAM. OVERALL, THE CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
TO LOWER SOME THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AND THE POPS WERE
GRADUALLY INCREASED AS WELL.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WITH THE THICKENING CLOUDS AND A WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE IT WILL BE A MILDER NIGHT. OVERALL, WE
USED A MOS BLEND WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND BE SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT
THIS PERIOD. THE END RESULT WILL BE GRAY GLOOMY COOLER DAYS
FEATURING RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. THE FORMATION OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE WILL START WITH TWO PIECES, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
COLD FRONT DIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND A
LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE CAROLINA`S. THE UPPER LOW AND COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY TO THE REGION WITH A MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE CAROLINA LOW
WELL OFFSHORE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT WE BEGIN TO SEE MORE INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE FEATURES, PHASING. A PHASED LOW FORMS OFF THE SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAJORITY OF ATLANTIC
MOISTURE BROUGHT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TO COMPARE OUR REGION
WOULD BE FAVORED FOR JUST SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS.

OVERALL THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER CONSENSUS TODAY
THAT THE ABOVE OUTCOME WILL OCCUR. THIS IS REFLECTED IN BOTH THE 00Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN COMPARED TO THE OPERATIONAL RUN AND THE 06Z
GEFS. WITH THAT BEING SAID, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT
THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LASTING
THROUGH THURSDAY. AREAS FURTHER NORTHEAST CLOSER TO THE LOW
STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE THE MOST IN TERMS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.
TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THE SHOWERS ARE STILL PRESENT LEAVING SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH POPS, KEPT AT HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END LIKELY.
TOTAL RAINFALL WILL BE UNDER ONE INCH FOR THIS EVENT. THE 12Z
ECMWF AND NAM FROM TODAY DO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY BEGINS TO TRANSFER TO THE COAST, THIS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS NEW DATA COMES IN. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS, LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP AT NIGHT CLOSE TO 50 FOR MOST OF US
WHILE HIGHS STRUGGLE TOWARD 60, COOLER NW. NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE
MODELS AND THERE ENSEMBLES/ STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES,
WENT ON THE WARMER END EACH NIGHT AND THE COOLER END DURING EACH
DAY. IN TERMS OF TIDES IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE WIND DIRECTION WILL
NOT CREATE DEPARTURES HIGH ENOUGH FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OR
CREATE LOW ENOUGH DEPARTURES FOR BLOWOUT TIDES ATTM.

FRIDAY: LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK IN. THIS ALLOWS FOR CLEARING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND
THE FIRST DRY DAY IN A WHILE. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO BE
CLOSER TO MEX GUIDANCE AND THE 12Z ECMWF MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
MIXING TO LEAD TO SOME AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: DURING D+6 AND D+7, THE NEGATIVE
NAO/POSITIVE PNA PATTERN OF THE PAST TWO WEEKS IS PROJECTED TO
REVERSE. THIS TREND IS UNDERWAY, AND IS EVIDENT IN LESS HIGH-
LATITUDE BLOCKING. THE MAIN MID-LEVEL FEATURES IN THIS TIMEFRAME
ARE A CLOSED LOW LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH A MORE ZONAL FLOW ON
SUNDAY. THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THESE FEATURES, AS THE
GFS EJECTS THE CLOSED LOW SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF, RESULTING IN A
DELAYED RETURN TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW. THIS FURTHER RESULTS IN THE
GFS MOVING THE SHORTWAVE FURTHER NORTHEAST, WHILE THE ECMWF TAKES
IT MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. SOME OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO SUPPORT THE ECMWF SOLUTION. GIVEN THE GFS
INITIALIZED MORE ROBUST WITH THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE /LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AS OF THIS WRITING/ THAT RESULTS IN THE CUT-
OFF LOW, AND PREVIOUS GFS RUNS WERE MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF,
FEEL THE GFS SOLUTION IS UNREALISTIC. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS ALSO
MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE PROJECTED LACK OF HIGH-LATITUDE
BLOCKING.

OR SATURDAY, SHORT-WAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST, WITH TEMPS AT 850 HPA SUPPORTING HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT SEASONABLE LEVELS. A COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME IN THE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY
TIMEFRAME. AT THIS TIME, THE ECMWF INDICATES THE BEST DYNAMICS
SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND LIMITED MOISTURE, BUT IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO
SPECULATE ON PRECIP CHANCES. IF THE TIMING OF THE FRONT HOLDS,
PROJECTED 850 HPA TEMPS WOULD SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR, WITH A CEILING AT TIMES MAINLY AT OR ABOVE 15000 FEET.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR, WITH A CEILING LOWERING TO BETWEEN 5000-8000 FEET.
SOME SHOWERS MAY APPROACH KABE AND KRDG TOWARD DAYBREAK.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS, AND EVEN BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT SOME TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...SOME RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FROM 15-20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST ALLOWING A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
FOR MUCH OF TODAY, HOWEVER IS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SOME LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR A TIME. THE OVERALL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD
BE LIGHT ENOUGH THOUGH TO KEEP THE WINDS BELOW 25 KNOTS. THE SEAS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE AT OR BELOW 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BUT INCREASING WEDNESDAY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: OVERALL THINKING IS THAT WAVEWATCH
IS UNDERDONE BY ABOUT A FOOT ON THE SEAS. SEAS WILL LIKELY BE AT OR
OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH SOME DECREASE IN THE
SEAS FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON. SCA POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-061-
     062.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ060-101>106.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ020>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>019-023.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...FRANCK/GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/GORSE
MARINE...GAINES/GORSE




000
FXUS61 KPHI 200736
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
336 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR NORFOLK WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST REACHING OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LINE ON TUESDAY AND THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST, REACHING CAPE
COD ON THURSDAY AND NOVA SCOTIA ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BRIEFLY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REACHING THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FROST ADVISORY AND FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EARLY
THIS MORNING, AS MANY AREAS ARE WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S. THE HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS THOUGH MAY HAVE SLOWED THE TEMPERATURE DROP A LITTLE
FOR SOME SPOTS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TODAY ALLOWING A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE TO DEVELOP. THIS FLOW WILL BE MUCH
LESS COMPARED TO THE GUSTINESS THAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY. A ROBUST
SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST WILL HELP CARVE OUT
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS, SOME WEAK WAA IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
PRESENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL SPREAD AREAS OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MAIN LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST,
THEREFORE WE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST TODAY. WE DID CARRY SOME
ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS THOUGH FOR MANY AREAS.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE USED A MODEL/MOS BLEND WHICH RESULTS
IN MILDER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THIS LINES UP WITH THE
WEAK WAA THAT IS ALSO FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH A
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST. AS THIS OCCURS, LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING AT THE
SURFACE IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT.

THERE IS SOME WAA BEING MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT OVERALL
THE BEST FOCUS FOR THIS IS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. IN
ADDITION, A DECENT SHOT OF LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION IS FORECAST
TO ARRIVE THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS AND THE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE, SOME
SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP. THIS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES
WHICH IS WHERE WE HAVE THE HIGHEST /CHC/ POPS LATE. THERE MAY ALSO
BE ANOTHER AREA OF FOCUS, WHICH IS OFFSHORE WHERE THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE STRONGER THETA-E ADVECTION INTERACTS WITH SOME INSTABILITY
PARTIALLY DUE TO THE GULF STREAM. OVERALL, THE CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
TO LOWER SOME THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AND THE POPS WERE
GRADUALLY INCREASED AS WELL.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WITH THE THICKENING CLOUDS AND A WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE IT WILL BE A MILDER NIGHT. OVERALL, WE
USED A MOS BLEND WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND BE SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT
THIS PERIOD. THE END RESULT WILL BE GRAY GLOOMY COOLER DAYS
FEATURING RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. THE FORMATION OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE WILL START WITH TWO PIECES, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
COLD FRONT DIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND A
LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE CAROLINA`S. THE UPPER LOW AND COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY TO THE REGION WITH A MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE CAROLINA LOW
WELL OFFSHORE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT WE BEGIN TO SEE MORE INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE FEATURES, PHASING. A PHASED LOW FORMS OFF THE SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAJORITY OF ATLANTIC
MOISTURE BROUGHT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TO COMPARE OUR REGION
WOULD BE FAVORED FOR JUST SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS.

OVERALL THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER CONSENSUS TODAY
THAT THE ABOVE OUTCOME WILL OCCUR. THIS IS REFLECTED IN BOTH THE 00Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN COMPARED TO THE OPERATIONAL RUN AND THE 06Z
GEFS. WITH THAT BEING SAID, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT
THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LASTING
THROUGH THURSDAY. AREAS FURTHER NORTHEAST CLOSER TO THE LOW
STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE THE MOST IN TERMS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.
TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THE SHOWERS ARE STILL PRESENT LEAVING SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH POPS, KEPT AT HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END LIKELY.
TOTAL RAINFALL WILL BE UNDER ONE INCH FOR THIS EVENT. THE 12Z
ECMWF AND NAM FROM TODAY DO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY BEGINS TO TRANSFER TO THE COAST, THIS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS NEW DATA COMES IN. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS, LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP AT NIGHT CLOSE TO 50 FOR MOST OF US
WHILE HIGHS STRUGGLE TOWARD 60, COOLER NW. NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE
MODELS AND THERE ENSEMBLES/ STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES,
WENT ON THE WARMER END EACH NIGHT AND THE COOLER END DURING EACH
DAY. IN TERMS OF TIDES IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE WIND DIRECTION WILL
NOT CREATE DEPARTURES HIGH ENOUGH FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OR
CREATE LOW ENOUGH DEPARTURES FOR BLOWOUT TIDES ATTM.

FRIDAY: LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK IN. THIS ALLOWS FOR CLEARING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND
THE FIRST DRY DAY IN A WHILE. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO BE
CLOSER TO MEX GUIDANCE AND THE 12Z ECMWF MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
MIXING TO LEAD TO SOME AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: DURING D+6 AND D+7, THE NEGATIVE
NAO/POSITIVE PNA PATTERN OF THE PAST TWO WEEKS IS PROJECTED TO
REVERSE. THIS TREND IS UNDERWAY, AND IS EVIDENT IN LESS HIGH-
LATITUDE BLOCKING. THE MAIN MID-LEVEL FEATURES IN THIS TIMEFRAME
ARE A CLOSED LOW LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH A MORE ZONAL FLOW ON
SUNDAY. THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THESE FEATURES, AS THE
GFS EJECTS THE CLOSED LOW SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF, RESULTING IN A
DELAYED RETURN TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW. THIS FURTHER RESULTS IN THE
GFS MOVING THE SHORTWAVE FURTHER NORTHEAST, WHILE THE ECMWF TAKES
IT MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. SOME OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO SUPPORT THE ECMWF SOLUTION. GIVEN THE GFS
INITIALIZED MORE ROBUST WITH THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE /LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AS OF THIS WRITING/ THAT RESULTS IN THE CUT-
OFF LOW, AND PREVIOUS GFS RUNS WERE MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF,
FEEL THE GFS SOLUTION IS UNREALISTIC. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS ALSO
MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE PROJECTED LACK OF HIGH-LATITUDE
BLOCKING.

OR SATURDAY, SHORT-WAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST, WITH TEMPS AT 850 HPA SUPPORTING HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT SEASONABLE LEVELS. A COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME IN THE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY
TIMEFRAME. AT THIS TIME, THE ECMWF INDICATES THE BEST DYNAMICS
SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND LIMITED MOISTURE, BUT IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO
SPECULATE ON PRECIP CHANCES. IF THE TIMING OF THE FRONT HOLDS,
PROJECTED 850 HPA TEMPS WOULD SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR, WITH A CEILING AT TIMES MAINLY AT OR ABOVE 15000 FEET.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR, WITH A CEILING LOWERING TO BETWEEN 5000-8000 FEET.
SOME SHOWERS MAY APPROACH KABE AND KRDG TOWARD DAYBREAK.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS, AND EVEN BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT SOME TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...SOME RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FROM 15-20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST ALLOWING A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
FOR MUCH OF TODAY, HOWEVER IS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SOME LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR A TIME. THE OVERALL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD
BE LIGHT ENOUGH THOUGH TO KEEP THE WINDS BELOW 25 KNOTS. THE SEAS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE AT OR BELOW 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BUT INCREASING WEDNESDAY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: OVERALL THINKING IS THAT WAVEWATCH
IS UNDERDONE BY ABOUT A FOOT ON THE SEAS. SEAS WILL LIKELY BE AT OR
OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH SOME DECREASE IN THE
SEAS FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON. SCA POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-061-
     062.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ060-101>106.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ020>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>019-023.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...FRANCK/GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/GORSE
MARINE...GAINES/GORSE





000
FXUS61 KPHI 200736
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
336 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR NORFOLK WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST REACHING OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LINE ON TUESDAY AND THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST, REACHING CAPE
COD ON THURSDAY AND NOVA SCOTIA ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BRIEFLY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REACHING THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FROST ADVISORY AND FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EARLY
THIS MORNING, AS MANY AREAS ARE WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S. THE HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS THOUGH MAY HAVE SLOWED THE TEMPERATURE DROP A LITTLE
FOR SOME SPOTS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TODAY ALLOWING A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE TO DEVELOP. THIS FLOW WILL BE MUCH
LESS COMPARED TO THE GUSTINESS THAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY. A ROBUST
SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST WILL HELP CARVE OUT
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS, SOME WEAK WAA IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
PRESENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL SPREAD AREAS OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MAIN LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST,
THEREFORE WE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST TODAY. WE DID CARRY SOME
ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS THOUGH FOR MANY AREAS.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE USED A MODEL/MOS BLEND WHICH RESULTS
IN MILDER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THIS LINES UP WITH THE
WEAK WAA THAT IS ALSO FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH A
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST. AS THIS OCCURS, LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING AT THE
SURFACE IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT.

THERE IS SOME WAA BEING MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT OVERALL
THE BEST FOCUS FOR THIS IS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. IN
ADDITION, A DECENT SHOT OF LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION IS FORECAST
TO ARRIVE THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS AND THE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE, SOME
SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP. THIS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES
WHICH IS WHERE WE HAVE THE HIGHEST /CHC/ POPS LATE. THERE MAY ALSO
BE ANOTHER AREA OF FOCUS, WHICH IS OFFSHORE WHERE THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE STRONGER THETA-E ADVECTION INTERACTS WITH SOME INSTABILITY
PARTIALLY DUE TO THE GULF STREAM. OVERALL, THE CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
TO LOWER SOME THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AND THE POPS WERE
GRADUALLY INCREASED AS WELL.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WITH THE THICKENING CLOUDS AND A WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE IT WILL BE A MILDER NIGHT. OVERALL, WE
USED A MOS BLEND WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND BE SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT
THIS PERIOD. THE END RESULT WILL BE GRAY GLOOMY COOLER DAYS
FEATURING RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. THE FORMATION OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE WILL START WITH TWO PIECES, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
COLD FRONT DIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND A
LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE CAROLINA`S. THE UPPER LOW AND COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY TO THE REGION WITH A MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE CAROLINA LOW
WELL OFFSHORE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT WE BEGIN TO SEE MORE INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE FEATURES, PHASING. A PHASED LOW FORMS OFF THE SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAJORITY OF ATLANTIC
MOISTURE BROUGHT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TO COMPARE OUR REGION
WOULD BE FAVORED FOR JUST SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS.

OVERALL THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER CONSENSUS TODAY
THAT THE ABOVE OUTCOME WILL OCCUR. THIS IS REFLECTED IN BOTH THE 00Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN COMPARED TO THE OPERATIONAL RUN AND THE 06Z
GEFS. WITH THAT BEING SAID, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT
THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LASTING
THROUGH THURSDAY. AREAS FURTHER NORTHEAST CLOSER TO THE LOW
STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE THE MOST IN TERMS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.
TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THE SHOWERS ARE STILL PRESENT LEAVING SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH POPS, KEPT AT HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END LIKELY.
TOTAL RAINFALL WILL BE UNDER ONE INCH FOR THIS EVENT. THE 12Z
ECMWF AND NAM FROM TODAY DO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY BEGINS TO TRANSFER TO THE COAST, THIS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS NEW DATA COMES IN. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS, LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP AT NIGHT CLOSE TO 50 FOR MOST OF US
WHILE HIGHS STRUGGLE TOWARD 60, COOLER NW. NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE
MODELS AND THERE ENSEMBLES/ STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES,
WENT ON THE WARMER END EACH NIGHT AND THE COOLER END DURING EACH
DAY. IN TERMS OF TIDES IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE WIND DIRECTION WILL
NOT CREATE DEPARTURES HIGH ENOUGH FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OR
CREATE LOW ENOUGH DEPARTURES FOR BLOWOUT TIDES ATTM.

FRIDAY: LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK IN. THIS ALLOWS FOR CLEARING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND
THE FIRST DRY DAY IN A WHILE. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO BE
CLOSER TO MEX GUIDANCE AND THE 12Z ECMWF MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
MIXING TO LEAD TO SOME AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: DURING D+6 AND D+7, THE NEGATIVE
NAO/POSITIVE PNA PATTERN OF THE PAST TWO WEEKS IS PROJECTED TO
REVERSE. THIS TREND IS UNDERWAY, AND IS EVIDENT IN LESS HIGH-
LATITUDE BLOCKING. THE MAIN MID-LEVEL FEATURES IN THIS TIMEFRAME
ARE A CLOSED LOW LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH A MORE ZONAL FLOW ON
SUNDAY. THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THESE FEATURES, AS THE
GFS EJECTS THE CLOSED LOW SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF, RESULTING IN A
DELAYED RETURN TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW. THIS FURTHER RESULTS IN THE
GFS MOVING THE SHORTWAVE FURTHER NORTHEAST, WHILE THE ECMWF TAKES
IT MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. SOME OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO SUPPORT THE ECMWF SOLUTION. GIVEN THE GFS
INITIALIZED MORE ROBUST WITH THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE /LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AS OF THIS WRITING/ THAT RESULTS IN THE CUT-
OFF LOW, AND PREVIOUS GFS RUNS WERE MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF,
FEEL THE GFS SOLUTION IS UNREALISTIC. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS ALSO
MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE PROJECTED LACK OF HIGH-LATITUDE
BLOCKING.

OR SATURDAY, SHORT-WAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST, WITH TEMPS AT 850 HPA SUPPORTING HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT SEASONABLE LEVELS. A COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME IN THE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY
TIMEFRAME. AT THIS TIME, THE ECMWF INDICATES THE BEST DYNAMICS
SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND LIMITED MOISTURE, BUT IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO
SPECULATE ON PRECIP CHANCES. IF THE TIMING OF THE FRONT HOLDS,
PROJECTED 850 HPA TEMPS WOULD SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR, WITH A CEILING AT TIMES MAINLY AT OR ABOVE 15000 FEET.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR, WITH A CEILING LOWERING TO BETWEEN 5000-8000 FEET.
SOME SHOWERS MAY APPROACH KABE AND KRDG TOWARD DAYBREAK.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS, AND EVEN BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT SOME TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...SOME RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FROM 15-20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST ALLOWING A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
FOR MUCH OF TODAY, HOWEVER IS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SOME LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR A TIME. THE OVERALL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD
BE LIGHT ENOUGH THOUGH TO KEEP THE WINDS BELOW 25 KNOTS. THE SEAS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE AT OR BELOW 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BUT INCREASING WEDNESDAY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: OVERALL THINKING IS THAT WAVEWATCH
IS UNDERDONE BY ABOUT A FOOT ON THE SEAS. SEAS WILL LIKELY BE AT OR
OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH SOME DECREASE IN THE
SEAS FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON. SCA POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-061-
     062.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ060-101>106.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ020>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>019-023.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...FRANCK/GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/GORSE
MARINE...GAINES/GORSE





000
FXUS61 KPHI 200736
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
336 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR NORFOLK WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST REACHING OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LINE ON TUESDAY AND THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST, REACHING CAPE
COD ON THURSDAY AND NOVA SCOTIA ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BRIEFLY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REACHING THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FROST ADVISORY AND FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EARLY
THIS MORNING, AS MANY AREAS ARE WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S. THE HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS THOUGH MAY HAVE SLOWED THE TEMPERATURE DROP A LITTLE
FOR SOME SPOTS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TODAY ALLOWING A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE TO DEVELOP. THIS FLOW WILL BE MUCH
LESS COMPARED TO THE GUSTINESS THAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY. A ROBUST
SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST WILL HELP CARVE OUT
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS, SOME WEAK WAA IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
PRESENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL SPREAD AREAS OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MAIN LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST,
THEREFORE WE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST TODAY. WE DID CARRY SOME
ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS THOUGH FOR MANY AREAS.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE USED A MODEL/MOS BLEND WHICH RESULTS
IN MILDER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THIS LINES UP WITH THE
WEAK WAA THAT IS ALSO FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH A
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST. AS THIS OCCURS, LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING AT THE
SURFACE IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT.

THERE IS SOME WAA BEING MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT OVERALL
THE BEST FOCUS FOR THIS IS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. IN
ADDITION, A DECENT SHOT OF LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION IS FORECAST
TO ARRIVE THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS AND THE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE, SOME
SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP. THIS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES
WHICH IS WHERE WE HAVE THE HIGHEST /CHC/ POPS LATE. THERE MAY ALSO
BE ANOTHER AREA OF FOCUS, WHICH IS OFFSHORE WHERE THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE STRONGER THETA-E ADVECTION INTERACTS WITH SOME INSTABILITY
PARTIALLY DUE TO THE GULF STREAM. OVERALL, THE CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
TO LOWER SOME THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AND THE POPS WERE
GRADUALLY INCREASED AS WELL.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WITH THE THICKENING CLOUDS AND A WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE IT WILL BE A MILDER NIGHT. OVERALL, WE
USED A MOS BLEND WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND BE SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT
THIS PERIOD. THE END RESULT WILL BE GRAY GLOOMY COOLER DAYS
FEATURING RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. THE FORMATION OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE WILL START WITH TWO PIECES, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
COLD FRONT DIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND A
LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE CAROLINA`S. THE UPPER LOW AND COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY TO THE REGION WITH A MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE CAROLINA LOW
WELL OFFSHORE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT WE BEGIN TO SEE MORE INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE FEATURES, PHASING. A PHASED LOW FORMS OFF THE SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAJORITY OF ATLANTIC
MOISTURE BROUGHT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TO COMPARE OUR REGION
WOULD BE FAVORED FOR JUST SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS.

OVERALL THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER CONSENSUS TODAY
THAT THE ABOVE OUTCOME WILL OCCUR. THIS IS REFLECTED IN BOTH THE 00Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN COMPARED TO THE OPERATIONAL RUN AND THE 06Z
GEFS. WITH THAT BEING SAID, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT
THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LASTING
THROUGH THURSDAY. AREAS FURTHER NORTHEAST CLOSER TO THE LOW
STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE THE MOST IN TERMS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.
TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THE SHOWERS ARE STILL PRESENT LEAVING SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH POPS, KEPT AT HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END LIKELY.
TOTAL RAINFALL WILL BE UNDER ONE INCH FOR THIS EVENT. THE 12Z
ECMWF AND NAM FROM TODAY DO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY BEGINS TO TRANSFER TO THE COAST, THIS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS NEW DATA COMES IN. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS, LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP AT NIGHT CLOSE TO 50 FOR MOST OF US
WHILE HIGHS STRUGGLE TOWARD 60, COOLER NW. NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE
MODELS AND THERE ENSEMBLES/ STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES,
WENT ON THE WARMER END EACH NIGHT AND THE COOLER END DURING EACH
DAY. IN TERMS OF TIDES IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE WIND DIRECTION WILL
NOT CREATE DEPARTURES HIGH ENOUGH FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OR
CREATE LOW ENOUGH DEPARTURES FOR BLOWOUT TIDES ATTM.

FRIDAY: LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK IN. THIS ALLOWS FOR CLEARING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND
THE FIRST DRY DAY IN A WHILE. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO BE
CLOSER TO MEX GUIDANCE AND THE 12Z ECMWF MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
MIXING TO LEAD TO SOME AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: DURING D+6 AND D+7, THE NEGATIVE
NAO/POSITIVE PNA PATTERN OF THE PAST TWO WEEKS IS PROJECTED TO
REVERSE. THIS TREND IS UNDERWAY, AND IS EVIDENT IN LESS HIGH-
LATITUDE BLOCKING. THE MAIN MID-LEVEL FEATURES IN THIS TIMEFRAME
ARE A CLOSED LOW LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH A MORE ZONAL FLOW ON
SUNDAY. THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THESE FEATURES, AS THE
GFS EJECTS THE CLOSED LOW SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF, RESULTING IN A
DELAYED RETURN TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW. THIS FURTHER RESULTS IN THE
GFS MOVING THE SHORTWAVE FURTHER NORTHEAST, WHILE THE ECMWF TAKES
IT MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. SOME OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO SUPPORT THE ECMWF SOLUTION. GIVEN THE GFS
INITIALIZED MORE ROBUST WITH THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE /LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AS OF THIS WRITING/ THAT RESULTS IN THE CUT-
OFF LOW, AND PREVIOUS GFS RUNS WERE MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF,
FEEL THE GFS SOLUTION IS UNREALISTIC. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS ALSO
MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE PROJECTED LACK OF HIGH-LATITUDE
BLOCKING.

OR SATURDAY, SHORT-WAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST, WITH TEMPS AT 850 HPA SUPPORTING HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT SEASONABLE LEVELS. A COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME IN THE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY
TIMEFRAME. AT THIS TIME, THE ECMWF INDICATES THE BEST DYNAMICS
SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND LIMITED MOISTURE, BUT IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO
SPECULATE ON PRECIP CHANCES. IF THE TIMING OF THE FRONT HOLDS,
PROJECTED 850 HPA TEMPS WOULD SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR, WITH A CEILING AT TIMES MAINLY AT OR ABOVE 15000 FEET.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR, WITH A CEILING LOWERING TO BETWEEN 5000-8000 FEET.
SOME SHOWERS MAY APPROACH KABE AND KRDG TOWARD DAYBREAK.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS, AND EVEN BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT SOME TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...SOME RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FROM 15-20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST ALLOWING A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
FOR MUCH OF TODAY, HOWEVER IS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SOME LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR A TIME. THE OVERALL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD
BE LIGHT ENOUGH THOUGH TO KEEP THE WINDS BELOW 25 KNOTS. THE SEAS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE AT OR BELOW 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BUT INCREASING WEDNESDAY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: OVERALL THINKING IS THAT WAVEWATCH
IS UNDERDONE BY ABOUT A FOOT ON THE SEAS. SEAS WILL LIKELY BE AT OR
OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH SOME DECREASE IN THE
SEAS FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON. SCA POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-061-
     062.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ060-101>106.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ020>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>019-023.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...FRANCK/GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/GORSE
MARINE...GAINES/GORSE




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200436
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1236 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER CHANCES AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
POST MIDNGT UPDATE FEATURE ADJUSTMENTS TO CLD AND TEMPS BASED ON
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL AND MDL TRENDS. IN GENL...WARM ADVCTN AND
INCRSG CLD COVER WL PRECLUDE MUCH MORE OF A TEMP DROP THIS MRNG.
FROST ADVISORY FOR THE CNTIES SURROUNDING MORGANTOWN WL RMN IN
EFFECT UNTIL THE CLDS AND SFC WIND OVR THAT AREA INCRS.

OTHERWISE...THE APCHG SHRTWV...WITH TROF AXIS OVR LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY
THIS MRNG...IS STILL EXPECTED TO GENERATE SHWRS OVR THE UPR OH REGION
BY EVE. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS HAVE BEEN CONTINUED...BUT OVRALL
NMBRS WERE TEMPERED AND TIMING ADJUSTED FOR A LATER START GIVEN THE
DEPTH OF THE DRY LYR ON THE EVE SNDING AS WELL AS THE LATEST MDL
TRENDS.

MRNG TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING HRLY LAMP GUIDANCE AND RAP NMBRS...WHILE
COOL DAYTIME HIGHS WERE TWEAKED USING GFS MOSGUIDE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A JET STREAK MOVG THROUGH THE WRN FLANK OF THE EWD SHIFT UPR TROF
IS PROGGED TO CARVE A CUTOFF LOW OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION BY
LATE TUESDAY. COOLING MID LVLS WITH THAT SYSTEM WL LOWER CONVECTIVE
THRESHOLDS AND SPPRT SHWR ACTIVITY THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH PARTICULAR
EMPHASIS OVR UPSLOPE REGIONS TO THE N AND E OF PITTSBURGH.

BY THURSDAY...MDL WORLD PROJECTS SUFFICIENT COASTAL DVLPMNT/DEEPENING
TO DIMINISH POPS OVR THE IMMEDIATE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SHRTWV/VORT
PROJECTIONS THROUGH THE WRN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM IS MINIMAL...SO
HAVE HELD AT LEAST SLGT POPS OVR THE RIDGES THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EWD PROGRESS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR LOW SHOULD ENSURE A DRY AND
SEASONALLY COOL CLOSE TO THE WEEK. TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO
REPRESENT THE LONG TERM PD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPD WITH INCRG AC/CI THRU TDA AHD OF AN APCHG
SHRTWV. THIS SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS EXPD TO BRING MVFR
CONDS AND INCRG SHWR CHCS THIS EVE AND OVRNGT.

.AVIATION /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL THRU MID WK AS AN UPR LOW DRIFTS ACRS THE
RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ012-
     021-022.

&&

$$

15/07




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200436
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1236 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER CHANCES AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
POST MIDNGT UPDATE FEATURE ADJUSTMENTS TO CLD AND TEMPS BASED ON
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL AND MDL TRENDS. IN GENL...WARM ADVCTN AND
INCRSG CLD COVER WL PRECLUDE MUCH MORE OF A TEMP DROP THIS MRNG.
FROST ADVISORY FOR THE CNTIES SURROUNDING MORGANTOWN WL RMN IN
EFFECT UNTIL THE CLDS AND SFC WIND OVR THAT AREA INCRS.

OTHERWISE...THE APCHG SHRTWV...WITH TROF AXIS OVR LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY
THIS MRNG...IS STILL EXPECTED TO GENERATE SHWRS OVR THE UPR OH REGION
BY EVE. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS HAVE BEEN CONTINUED...BUT OVRALL
NMBRS WERE TEMPERED AND TIMING ADJUSTED FOR A LATER START GIVEN THE
DEPTH OF THE DRY LYR ON THE EVE SNDING AS WELL AS THE LATEST MDL
TRENDS.

MRNG TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING HRLY LAMP GUIDANCE AND RAP NMBRS...WHILE
COOL DAYTIME HIGHS WERE TWEAKED USING GFS MOSGUIDE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A JET STREAK MOVG THROUGH THE WRN FLANK OF THE EWD SHIFT UPR TROF
IS PROGGED TO CARVE A CUTOFF LOW OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION BY
LATE TUESDAY. COOLING MID LVLS WITH THAT SYSTEM WL LOWER CONVECTIVE
THRESHOLDS AND SPPRT SHWR ACTIVITY THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH PARTICULAR
EMPHASIS OVR UPSLOPE REGIONS TO THE N AND E OF PITTSBURGH.

BY THURSDAY...MDL WORLD PROJECTS SUFFICIENT COASTAL DVLPMNT/DEEPENING
TO DIMINISH POPS OVR THE IMMEDIATE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SHRTWV/VORT
PROJECTIONS THROUGH THE WRN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM IS MINIMAL...SO
HAVE HELD AT LEAST SLGT POPS OVR THE RIDGES THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EWD PROGRESS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR LOW SHOULD ENSURE A DRY AND
SEASONALLY COOL CLOSE TO THE WEEK. TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO
REPRESENT THE LONG TERM PD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPD WITH INCRG AC/CI THRU TDA AHD OF AN APCHG
SHRTWV. THIS SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS EXPD TO BRING MVFR
CONDS AND INCRG SHWR CHCS THIS EVE AND OVRNGT.

.AVIATION /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL THRU MID WK AS AN UPR LOW DRIFTS ACRS THE
RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ012-
     021-022.

&&

$$

15/07





000
FXUS61 KPHI 200410
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1210 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT. ON MONDAY,
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THEN REACH OUR REGION
DURING TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE CAROLINA
COASTLINE ON TUESDAY. THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER AND MERGE JUST OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEPART THE REGION BY FRIDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WE WILL LEAVE THE ADVISORIES/WARNINGS AS THEY ARE AS DEWPOINTS
ACROSS MUCH OF THESE AREAS ARE STILL LOW AT THIS POINT THAT THERE
IS STILL PLENTY OF ROOM FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP OVERNIGHT.
DEWPOINTS HAVE ACTUALLY RISEN SLIGHTLY WHERE THERE IS NO ADVISORY,
AND THERE IS SOME CLOUD COVER MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. SO WE THINK
THIS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT
WIDESPREAD FROST AND KEEP IT MORE PATCHY IN THESE AREAS.

WIND GUSTS HAVE DROPPED OFF AND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE/CALM ACROSS THE AREA. ANY DIRECTION WILL BE MOSTLY
NORTHWEST EARLY, THEN WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WERE A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV MOS WITH A
HEAVIER WEIGHTING ON THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MET. THE NAM OVERALL
APPEARED TO INITIALIZE BETTER THAN THE GFS UPSTREAM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE OTHER THAN WE SHOULD
BE ABLE TO TACK ON A FEW DEGREES TO DAYTIME HIGHS. WINDS BACK
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY LATE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN TO CREEP UP THOUGH
NOT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR COLUMN SATURATION. WE KEEP MONDAY DRY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE RIPPLING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS AND WAA BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM. ENOUGH LIFT SHOULD BE PRESENT TO GENERATE
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE
TUESDAY WITH QPF UNDER 1/10TH OF AN INCH. MAV AND MET GUIDANCE
SETS USED FOR MOST WEATHER ELEMENTS IN THIS PERIOD.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND BE SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD. THE END RESULT WILL BE GRAY GLOOMY COOLER DAYS FEATURING
RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. THE FORMATION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL START
WITH TWO PIECES, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND COLD FRONT DIVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND A LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF
THE CAROLINA`S. THE UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS ON TUESDAY TO THE REGION WITH A MOISTURE
PLUME FROM THE CAROLINA LOW WELL OFFSHORE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT WE BEGIN
TO SEE MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE FEATURES, PHASING. A PHASED LOW
FORMS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE
MAJORITY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE BROUGHT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TO
COMPARE OUR REGION WOULD BE FAVORED FOR JUST SOME WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS.

OVERALL THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER CONSENSUS TODAY
THAT THE ABOVE OUTCOME WILL OCCUR. THIS IS REFLECTED IN BOTH THE 00Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN COMPARED TO THE OPERATIONAL RUN AND THE 06Z
GEFS. WITH THAT BEING SAID, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT
THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LASTING
THROUGH THURSDAY. AREAS FURTHER NORTHEAST CLOSER TO THE LOW
STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE THE MOST IN TERMS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.
TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THE SHOWERS ARE STILL PRESENT LEAVING SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH POPS, KEPT AT HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END LIKELY.
TOTAL RAINFALL WILL BE UNDER ONE INCH FOR THIS EVENT. THE 12Z
ECMWF AND NAM FROM TODAY DO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY BEGINS TO TRANSFER TO THE COAST, THIS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS NEW DATA COMES IN. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS, LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP AT NIGHT CLOSE TO 50 FOR MOST OF US
WHILE HIGHS STRUGGLE TOWARD 60, COOLER NW. NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE
MODELS AND THERE ENSEMBLES/ STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES,
WENT ON THE WARMER END EACH NIGHT AND THE COOLER END DURING EACH
DAY. IN TERMS OF TIDES IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE WIND DIRECTION WILL
NOT CREATE DEPARTURES HIGH ENOUGH FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OR
CREATE LOW ENOUGH DEPARTURES FOR BLOWOUT TIDES ATTM.

FRIDAY: LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK IN. THIS ALLOWS FOR CLEARING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND
THE FIRST DRY DAY IN A WHILE. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO BE
CLOSER TO MEX GUIDANCE AND THE 12Z ECMWF MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
MIXING TO LEAD TO SOME AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: DURING D+6 AND D+7, THE NEGATIVE
NAO/POSITIVE PNA PATTERN OF THE PAST TWO WEEKS IS PROJECTED TO
REVERSE. THIS TREND IS UNDERWAY, AND IS EVIDENT IN LESS HIGH-
LATITUDE BLOCKING. THE MAIN MID-LEVEL FEATURES IN THIS TIMEFRAME
ARE A CLOSED LOW LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH A MORE ZONAL FLOW ON
SUNDAY. THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THESE FEATURES, AS THE
GFS EJECTS THE CLOSED LOW SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF, RESULTING IN A
DELAYED RETURN TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW. THIS FURTHER RESULTS IN THE
GFS MOVING THE SHORTWAVE FURTHER NORTHEAST, WHILE THE ECMWF TAKES
IT MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. SOME OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO SUPPORT THE ECMWF SOLUTION. GIVEN THE GFS
INITIALIZED MORE ROBUST WITH THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE /LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AS OF THIS WRITING/ THAT RESULTS IN THE CUT-
OFF LOW, AND PREVIOUS GFS RUNS WERE MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF,
FEEL THE GFS SOLUTION IS UNREALISTIC. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS ALSO
MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE PROJECTED LACK OF HIGH-LATITUDE
BLOCKING.

OR SATURDAY, SHORT-WAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST, WITH TEMPS AT 850 HPA SUPPORTING HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT SEASONABLE LEVELS. A COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME IN THE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY
TIMEFRAME. AT THIS TIME, THE ECMWF INDICATES THE BEST DYNAMICS
SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND LIMITED MOISTURE, BUT IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO
SPECULATE ON PRECIP CHANCES. IF THE TIMING OF THE FRONT HOLDS,
PROJECTED 850 HPA TEMPS WOULD SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH ONLY CIRRUS CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WIND
GUSTS HAVE DROPPED OFF AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE/CALM MOST PLACES OVERNIGHT. ANY DIRECTION WILL SWITCH
FROM MOSTLY NORTHWEST TO WEST OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...VFR. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS. INCREASING CIRRUS BECOMING ALTOCU BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THINK ANY RAIN CHANCES HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SOME RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FROM 15-20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS AS THE WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD.
THE WAVE PERIOD WAS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD BASED ON THE AVAILABLE BUOY DATA.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS REMAIN 2 TO 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BUT INCREASING WEDNESDAY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: OVERALL THINKING IS THAT WAVEWATCH
IS UNDERDONE BY ABOUT A FOOT ON THE SEAS. SEAS WILL LIKELY BE AT OR
OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH SOME DECREASE IN THE
SEAS FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON. SCA POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-061-
     062.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ060-101>106.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     NJZ020>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>019-023.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GAINES
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...FRANCK/GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GAINES/GORSE/HEAVENER/ROBERTSON




000
FXUS61 KPHI 200410
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1210 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT. ON MONDAY,
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THEN REACH OUR REGION
DURING TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE CAROLINA
COASTLINE ON TUESDAY. THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER AND MERGE JUST OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEPART THE REGION BY FRIDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WE WILL LEAVE THE ADVISORIES/WARNINGS AS THEY ARE AS DEWPOINTS
ACROSS MUCH OF THESE AREAS ARE STILL LOW AT THIS POINT THAT THERE
IS STILL PLENTY OF ROOM FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP OVERNIGHT.
DEWPOINTS HAVE ACTUALLY RISEN SLIGHTLY WHERE THERE IS NO ADVISORY,
AND THERE IS SOME CLOUD COVER MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. SO WE THINK
THIS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT
WIDESPREAD FROST AND KEEP IT MORE PATCHY IN THESE AREAS.

WIND GUSTS HAVE DROPPED OFF AND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE/CALM ACROSS THE AREA. ANY DIRECTION WILL BE MOSTLY
NORTHWEST EARLY, THEN WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WERE A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV MOS WITH A
HEAVIER WEIGHTING ON THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MET. THE NAM OVERALL
APPEARED TO INITIALIZE BETTER THAN THE GFS UPSTREAM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE OTHER THAN WE SHOULD
BE ABLE TO TACK ON A FEW DEGREES TO DAYTIME HIGHS. WINDS BACK
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY LATE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN TO CREEP UP THOUGH
NOT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR COLUMN SATURATION. WE KEEP MONDAY DRY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE RIPPLING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS AND WAA BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM. ENOUGH LIFT SHOULD BE PRESENT TO GENERATE
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE
TUESDAY WITH QPF UNDER 1/10TH OF AN INCH. MAV AND MET GUIDANCE
SETS USED FOR MOST WEATHER ELEMENTS IN THIS PERIOD.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND BE SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD. THE END RESULT WILL BE GRAY GLOOMY COOLER DAYS FEATURING
RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. THE FORMATION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL START
WITH TWO PIECES, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND COLD FRONT DIVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND A LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF
THE CAROLINA`S. THE UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS ON TUESDAY TO THE REGION WITH A MOISTURE
PLUME FROM THE CAROLINA LOW WELL OFFSHORE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT WE BEGIN
TO SEE MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE FEATURES, PHASING. A PHASED LOW
FORMS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE
MAJORITY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE BROUGHT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TO
COMPARE OUR REGION WOULD BE FAVORED FOR JUST SOME WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS.

OVERALL THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER CONSENSUS TODAY
THAT THE ABOVE OUTCOME WILL OCCUR. THIS IS REFLECTED IN BOTH THE 00Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN COMPARED TO THE OPERATIONAL RUN AND THE 06Z
GEFS. WITH THAT BEING SAID, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT
THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LASTING
THROUGH THURSDAY. AREAS FURTHER NORTHEAST CLOSER TO THE LOW
STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE THE MOST IN TERMS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.
TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THE SHOWERS ARE STILL PRESENT LEAVING SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH POPS, KEPT AT HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END LIKELY.
TOTAL RAINFALL WILL BE UNDER ONE INCH FOR THIS EVENT. THE 12Z
ECMWF AND NAM FROM TODAY DO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY BEGINS TO TRANSFER TO THE COAST, THIS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS NEW DATA COMES IN. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS, LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP AT NIGHT CLOSE TO 50 FOR MOST OF US
WHILE HIGHS STRUGGLE TOWARD 60, COOLER NW. NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE
MODELS AND THERE ENSEMBLES/ STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES,
WENT ON THE WARMER END EACH NIGHT AND THE COOLER END DURING EACH
DAY. IN TERMS OF TIDES IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE WIND DIRECTION WILL
NOT CREATE DEPARTURES HIGH ENOUGH FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OR
CREATE LOW ENOUGH DEPARTURES FOR BLOWOUT TIDES ATTM.

FRIDAY: LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK IN. THIS ALLOWS FOR CLEARING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND
THE FIRST DRY DAY IN A WHILE. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO BE
CLOSER TO MEX GUIDANCE AND THE 12Z ECMWF MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
MIXING TO LEAD TO SOME AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: DURING D+6 AND D+7, THE NEGATIVE
NAO/POSITIVE PNA PATTERN OF THE PAST TWO WEEKS IS PROJECTED TO
REVERSE. THIS TREND IS UNDERWAY, AND IS EVIDENT IN LESS HIGH-
LATITUDE BLOCKING. THE MAIN MID-LEVEL FEATURES IN THIS TIMEFRAME
ARE A CLOSED LOW LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH A MORE ZONAL FLOW ON
SUNDAY. THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THESE FEATURES, AS THE
GFS EJECTS THE CLOSED LOW SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF, RESULTING IN A
DELAYED RETURN TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW. THIS FURTHER RESULTS IN THE
GFS MOVING THE SHORTWAVE FURTHER NORTHEAST, WHILE THE ECMWF TAKES
IT MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. SOME OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO SUPPORT THE ECMWF SOLUTION. GIVEN THE GFS
INITIALIZED MORE ROBUST WITH THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE /LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AS OF THIS WRITING/ THAT RESULTS IN THE CUT-
OFF LOW, AND PREVIOUS GFS RUNS WERE MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF,
FEEL THE GFS SOLUTION IS UNREALISTIC. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS ALSO
MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE PROJECTED LACK OF HIGH-LATITUDE
BLOCKING.

OR SATURDAY, SHORT-WAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST, WITH TEMPS AT 850 HPA SUPPORTING HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT SEASONABLE LEVELS. A COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME IN THE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY
TIMEFRAME. AT THIS TIME, THE ECMWF INDICATES THE BEST DYNAMICS
SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND LIMITED MOISTURE, BUT IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO
SPECULATE ON PRECIP CHANCES. IF THE TIMING OF THE FRONT HOLDS,
PROJECTED 850 HPA TEMPS WOULD SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH ONLY CIRRUS CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WIND
GUSTS HAVE DROPPED OFF AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE/CALM MOST PLACES OVERNIGHT. ANY DIRECTION WILL SWITCH
FROM MOSTLY NORTHWEST TO WEST OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...VFR. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS. INCREASING CIRRUS BECOMING ALTOCU BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THINK ANY RAIN CHANCES HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SOME RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FROM 15-20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS AS THE WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD.
THE WAVE PERIOD WAS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD BASED ON THE AVAILABLE BUOY DATA.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS REMAIN 2 TO 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BUT INCREASING WEDNESDAY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: OVERALL THINKING IS THAT WAVEWATCH
IS UNDERDONE BY ABOUT A FOOT ON THE SEAS. SEAS WILL LIKELY BE AT OR
OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH SOME DECREASE IN THE
SEAS FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON. SCA POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-061-
     062.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ060-101>106.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     NJZ020>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>019-023.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GAINES
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...FRANCK/GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GAINES/GORSE/HEAVENER/ROBERTSON





000
FXUS61 KPHI 200140
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
940 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT. ON MONDAY A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REACHING OUR REGION DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE CAROLINA
COASTLINE ON TUESDAY AS WELL. THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER AND MERGE JUST OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEPART THE REGION BY FRIDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
NO CHANGES TO THE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES THIS EVENING. WE WILL
LEAVE THE ADVISORIES/WARNINGS AS THEY ARE AS DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH
OF THESE AREAS ARE STILL LOW AT THIS POINT THAT THERE IS STILL
PLENTY OF ROOM FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS HAVE
ACTUALLY RISEN SLIGHTLY WHERE THERE IS NO ADVISORY, AND THERE IS
SOME CLOUD COVER MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. SO WE THINK THIS MAY
KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FROST
AND KEEP IT MORE PATCHY IN THESE AREAS.

WIND GUSTS HAVE DROPPED OFF AND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE/CALM ACROSS THE AREA. ANY DIRECTION WILL BE MOSTLY
NORTHWEST EARLY, THEN WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WERE A BLEND OF THE MET/MAVMOS WITH A
HEAVIER WEIGHTING ON THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MET. THE NAM OVERALL
APPEARED TO INITIALIZE BETTER THAN THE GFS UPSTREAM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE OTHER THAN WE SHOULD
BE ABLE TO TACK ON A FEW DEGREES TO DAYTIME HIGHS. WINDS BACK
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY LATE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN TO CREEP UP THOUGH
NOT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR COLUMN SATURATION. WE KEEP MONDAY DRY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE RIPPLING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS AND WAA BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM. ENOUGH LIFT SHOULD BE PRESENT TO GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE TUESDAY
WITH QPF UNDER 1/10TH OF AN INCH. MAV AND MET GUIDANCE SETS USED FOR
MOST WEATHER ELEMENTS IN THIS PERIOD.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND BE SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD. THE END RESULT WILL BE GRAY GLOOMY COOLER DAYS FEATURING
RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. THE FORMATION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL START
WITH TWO PIECES, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND COLD FRONT DIVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND A LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF
THE CAROLINA`S. THE UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS ON TUESDAY TO THE REGION WITH A MOISTURE
PLUME FROM THE CAROLINA LOW WELL OFFSHORE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT WE BEGIN
TO SEE MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE FEATURES, PHASING. A PHASED LOW
FORMS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE
MAJORITY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE BROUGHT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TO
COMPARE OUR REGION WOULD BE FAVORED FOR JUST SOME WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS.

OVERALL THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER CONSENSUS TODAY
THAT THE ABOVE OUTCOME WILL OCCUR. THIS IS REFLECTED IN BOTH THE 00Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN COMPARED TO THE OPERATIONAL RUN AND THE 06Z
GEFS. WITH THAT BEING SAID, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT
THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LASTING
THROUGH THURSDAY. AREAS FURTHER NORTHEAST CLOSER TO THE LOW
STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE THE MOST IN TERMS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.
TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THE SHOWERS ARE STILL PRESENT LEAVING SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH POPS, KEPT AT HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END LIKELY.
TOTAL RAINFALL WILL BE UNDER ONE INCH FOR THIS EVENT. THE 12Z
ECMWF AND NAM FROM TODAY DO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY BEGINS TO TRANSFER TO THE COAST, THIS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS NEW DATA COMES IN. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS, LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP AT NIGHT CLOSE TO 50 FOR MOST OF US
WHILE HIGHS STRUGGLE TOWARD 60, COOLER NW. NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE
MODELS AND THERE ENSEMBLES/ STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES,
WENT ON THE WARMER END EACH NIGHT AND THE COOLER END DURING EACH
DAY. IN TERMS OF TIDES IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE WIND DIRECTION WILL
NOT CREATE DEPARTURES HIGH ENOUGH FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OR
CREATE LOW ENOUGH DEPARTURES FOR BLOWOUT TIDES ATTM.


FRIDAY: LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK IN. THIS ALLOWS FOR CLEARING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND
THE FIRST DRY DAY IN A WHILE. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO BE
CLOSER TO MEX GUIDANCE AND THE 12Z ECMWF MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
MIXING TO LEAD TO SOME AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: DURING D+6 AND D+7, THE NEGATIVE
NAO/POSITIVE PNA PATTERN OF THE PAST TWO WEEKS IS PROJECTED TO
REVERSE. THIS TREND IS UNDERWAY, AND IS EVIDENT IN LESS HIGH-
LATITUDE BLOCKING. THE MAIN MID-LEVEL FEATURES IN THIS TIMEFRAME
ARE A CLOSED LOW LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH A MORE ZONAL FLOW ON
SUNDAY. THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THESE FEATURES, AS THE
GFS EJECTS THE CLOSED LOW SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF, RESULTING IN A
DELAYED RETURN TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW. THIS FURTHER RESULTS IN THE
GFS MOVING THE SHORTWAVE FURTHER NORTHEAST, WHILE THE ECMWF TAKES
IT MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. SOME OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO SUPPORT THE ECMWF SOLUTION. GIVEN THE GFS
INITIALIZED MORE ROBUST WITH THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE /LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AS OF THIS WRITING/ THAT RESULTS IN THE CUT-
OFF LOW, AND PREVIOUS GFS RUNS WERE MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF,
FEEL THE GFS SOLUTION IS UNREALISTIC. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS ALSO
MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE PROJECTED LACK OF HIGH-LATITUDE
BLOCKING.

OR SATURDAY, SHORT-WAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST, WITH TEMPS AT 850 HPA SUPPORTING HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT SEASONABLE LEVELS. A COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME IN THE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY
TIMEFRAME. AT THIS TIME, THE ECMWF INDICATES THE BEST DYNAMICS
SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND LIMITED MOISTURE, BUT IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO
SPECULATE ON PRECIP CHANCES. IF THE TIMING OF THE FRONT HOLDS,
PROJECTED 850 HPA TEMPS WOULD SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH ONLY CIRRUS CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WIND
GUSTS HAVE DROPPED OFF AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE/CALM MOST PLACES OVERNIGHT. ANY DIRECTION WILL SWITCH
FROM MOSTLY NORTHWEST TO WEST OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...VFR. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS. INCREASING CIRRUS BECOMING ALTOCU BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THINK ANY RAIN CHANCES HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SOME RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FROM 15-20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE DELAWARE BAY WAS ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE AT 8PM AS GUSTS HAVE DROPPED OFF THERE. THE OCEAN FRONT
REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE MIDNIGHT END TIME. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING IN WILL ALLOW THE WIND AND SEAS TO RELAX LATE TONIGHT.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS REMAIN 2 TO 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BUT INCREASING WEDNESDAY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: OVERALL THINKING IS THAT WAVEWATCH
IS UNDERDONE BY ABOUT A FOOT ON THE SEAS. SEAS WILL LIKELY BE AT OR
OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH SOME DECREASE IN THE
SEAS FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON. SCA POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ054-055-061-
     062.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ060-101>106.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ020>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>019-023.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GAINES
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...FRANCK/GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GAINES/HEAVENER/ROBERTSON





000
FXUS61 KPHI 200140
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
940 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT. ON MONDAY A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REACHING OUR REGION DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE CAROLINA
COASTLINE ON TUESDAY AS WELL. THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER AND MERGE JUST OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEPART THE REGION BY FRIDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
NO CHANGES TO THE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES THIS EVENING. WE WILL
LEAVE THE ADVISORIES/WARNINGS AS THEY ARE AS DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH
OF THESE AREAS ARE STILL LOW AT THIS POINT THAT THERE IS STILL
PLENTY OF ROOM FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS HAVE
ACTUALLY RISEN SLIGHTLY WHERE THERE IS NO ADVISORY, AND THERE IS
SOME CLOUD COVER MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. SO WE THINK THIS MAY
KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FROST
AND KEEP IT MORE PATCHY IN THESE AREAS.

WIND GUSTS HAVE DROPPED OFF AND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE/CALM ACROSS THE AREA. ANY DIRECTION WILL BE MOSTLY
NORTHWEST EARLY, THEN WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WERE A BLEND OF THE MET/MAVMOS WITH A
HEAVIER WEIGHTING ON THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MET. THE NAM OVERALL
APPEARED TO INITIALIZE BETTER THAN THE GFS UPSTREAM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE OTHER THAN WE SHOULD
BE ABLE TO TACK ON A FEW DEGREES TO DAYTIME HIGHS. WINDS BACK
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY LATE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN TO CREEP UP THOUGH
NOT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR COLUMN SATURATION. WE KEEP MONDAY DRY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE RIPPLING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS AND WAA BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM. ENOUGH LIFT SHOULD BE PRESENT TO GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE TUESDAY
WITH QPF UNDER 1/10TH OF AN INCH. MAV AND MET GUIDANCE SETS USED FOR
MOST WEATHER ELEMENTS IN THIS PERIOD.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND BE SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD. THE END RESULT WILL BE GRAY GLOOMY COOLER DAYS FEATURING
RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. THE FORMATION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL START
WITH TWO PIECES, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND COLD FRONT DIVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND A LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF
THE CAROLINA`S. THE UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS ON TUESDAY TO THE REGION WITH A MOISTURE
PLUME FROM THE CAROLINA LOW WELL OFFSHORE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT WE BEGIN
TO SEE MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE FEATURES, PHASING. A PHASED LOW
FORMS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE
MAJORITY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE BROUGHT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TO
COMPARE OUR REGION WOULD BE FAVORED FOR JUST SOME WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS.

OVERALL THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER CONSENSUS TODAY
THAT THE ABOVE OUTCOME WILL OCCUR. THIS IS REFLECTED IN BOTH THE 00Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN COMPARED TO THE OPERATIONAL RUN AND THE 06Z
GEFS. WITH THAT BEING SAID, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT
THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LASTING
THROUGH THURSDAY. AREAS FURTHER NORTHEAST CLOSER TO THE LOW
STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE THE MOST IN TERMS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.
TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THE SHOWERS ARE STILL PRESENT LEAVING SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH POPS, KEPT AT HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END LIKELY.
TOTAL RAINFALL WILL BE UNDER ONE INCH FOR THIS EVENT. THE 12Z
ECMWF AND NAM FROM TODAY DO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY BEGINS TO TRANSFER TO THE COAST, THIS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS NEW DATA COMES IN. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS, LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP AT NIGHT CLOSE TO 50 FOR MOST OF US
WHILE HIGHS STRUGGLE TOWARD 60, COOLER NW. NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE
MODELS AND THERE ENSEMBLES/ STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES,
WENT ON THE WARMER END EACH NIGHT AND THE COOLER END DURING EACH
DAY. IN TERMS OF TIDES IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE WIND DIRECTION WILL
NOT CREATE DEPARTURES HIGH ENOUGH FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OR
CREATE LOW ENOUGH DEPARTURES FOR BLOWOUT TIDES ATTM.


FRIDAY: LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK IN. THIS ALLOWS FOR CLEARING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND
THE FIRST DRY DAY IN A WHILE. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO BE
CLOSER TO MEX GUIDANCE AND THE 12Z ECMWF MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
MIXING TO LEAD TO SOME AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: DURING D+6 AND D+7, THE NEGATIVE
NAO/POSITIVE PNA PATTERN OF THE PAST TWO WEEKS IS PROJECTED TO
REVERSE. THIS TREND IS UNDERWAY, AND IS EVIDENT IN LESS HIGH-
LATITUDE BLOCKING. THE MAIN MID-LEVEL FEATURES IN THIS TIMEFRAME
ARE A CLOSED LOW LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH A MORE ZONAL FLOW ON
SUNDAY. THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THESE FEATURES, AS THE
GFS EJECTS THE CLOSED LOW SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF, RESULTING IN A
DELAYED RETURN TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW. THIS FURTHER RESULTS IN THE
GFS MOVING THE SHORTWAVE FURTHER NORTHEAST, WHILE THE ECMWF TAKES
IT MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. SOME OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO SUPPORT THE ECMWF SOLUTION. GIVEN THE GFS
INITIALIZED MORE ROBUST WITH THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE /LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AS OF THIS WRITING/ THAT RESULTS IN THE CUT-
OFF LOW, AND PREVIOUS GFS RUNS WERE MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF,
FEEL THE GFS SOLUTION IS UNREALISTIC. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS ALSO
MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE PROJECTED LACK OF HIGH-LATITUDE
BLOCKING.

OR SATURDAY, SHORT-WAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST, WITH TEMPS AT 850 HPA SUPPORTING HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT SEASONABLE LEVELS. A COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME IN THE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY
TIMEFRAME. AT THIS TIME, THE ECMWF INDICATES THE BEST DYNAMICS
SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND LIMITED MOISTURE, BUT IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO
SPECULATE ON PRECIP CHANCES. IF THE TIMING OF THE FRONT HOLDS,
PROJECTED 850 HPA TEMPS WOULD SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH ONLY CIRRUS CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WIND
GUSTS HAVE DROPPED OFF AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE/CALM MOST PLACES OVERNIGHT. ANY DIRECTION WILL SWITCH
FROM MOSTLY NORTHWEST TO WEST OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...VFR. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS. INCREASING CIRRUS BECOMING ALTOCU BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THINK ANY RAIN CHANCES HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SOME RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FROM 15-20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE DELAWARE BAY WAS ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE AT 8PM AS GUSTS HAVE DROPPED OFF THERE. THE OCEAN FRONT
REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE MIDNIGHT END TIME. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING IN WILL ALLOW THE WIND AND SEAS TO RELAX LATE TONIGHT.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS REMAIN 2 TO 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BUT INCREASING WEDNESDAY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: OVERALL THINKING IS THAT WAVEWATCH
IS UNDERDONE BY ABOUT A FOOT ON THE SEAS. SEAS WILL LIKELY BE AT OR
OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH SOME DECREASE IN THE
SEAS FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON. SCA POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ054-055-061-
     062.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ060-101>106.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ020>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>019-023.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GAINES
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...FRANCK/GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GAINES/HEAVENER/ROBERTSON




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200119
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
919 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LTST MSAS SHOWING SFC HIGH OVRHD AND WILL CONT TO DRIFT E OVRNIGHT.
LTST SAT LOOP SHWNG WDSPRD CI SPILLING OVR THE RIDGE AXIS FROM THE
NW WITH SFC OBS SHWNG WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED SINCE SUNSET. SFC TMPS
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 40S BUT NOTING DP TMPS HAVE REMAINED STDY OR
RISEN A DEGREE OR TWO THIS EVE. LTST MODEL / MOS DATA SPRTS CRNT
FCSTD MINS IN THE M-U30S W OF CHES BAY AND ERN SHORE AREAS AWAY
FROM THE WATER...40-45 AT THE BEACHES.

ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE WHERE MINS REACH THE M30S...
GIVEN THE LTST MODEL / MOS DATA...SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE
LAST SHIFTS THINKING...SO NO HEADLINES PLANNED. JUST A HWO MENTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE MONDAY AS SLY RETURN FLOW/WAA
COMMENCES. AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE
REGION TUES AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE AS THE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACH. INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE UPPER
60S.

LOW PRESSURE DROPS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC MON NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AS THE CLIPPER FRONT, WITH
THE ASSOCIATED CLIPPER FRONT CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS EARLY
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE AN INVERTED TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPS
ALONG/JUST OFF THE SE COAST/MID-ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG UPPER VORT
MAX ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING UPPER LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CONUS TUESDAY NIGHT-LATE WED, THUS ENHANCING UVM ALONG
THE FRONT. HOWEVER, AS WE SAW WITH THE LAST SYSTEM YESTERDAY, LLVL
MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH PWATS REMAINING ON THE ORDER OF
0.75-1.00". STILL, MODELS ARE INTENT ON LIGHT QPF THROUGH THE
AFTN/EVE HOURS ON TUESDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH
CLOSEST TO BEST SLUG OF OVERRUNNING MOISTURE. WILL STICK WITH A
CHC POP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE TUE
AFTN...LINGERING INTO TUE NGT OVER THE COASTAL AREAS AS MOISTURE
SHIFTS EAST AND ALONG COASTAL TROUGH. FOR HIGHS, LOOK FOR MAXIMA
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TUES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS TUE NGT IN THE U40S WELL INLAND TO MID 50S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL ZONES.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS
AS THE TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WL THEREFORE KEEP
FORECAST DRY WEST OF I-95 ON WED, WITH LOW CHC POP FARTHER EAST
FOR SOME SCT SHRAS OVER COASTAL AREAS/ERN SHORE. HIGHS WED
REMAIN BELOW CLIMO NUMBERS...GENERALLY IN THE L-M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WED NIGHT THRU
FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS (~30%) ACROSS FAR EASTERN
ZONES WED NIGHT...LOWERING TO SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) OVER THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE ON THURS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COASTAL LOW LATE IN THE COMING WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...PUSHING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION NEXT SUNDAY. DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED.
HIGHS THU 60-65...THEN FRI-SUN IN THE MID/UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE 40S
TO LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS INDICATED FOR THE 00Z TAF PERIOD OTHER THAN
SOME SCT HIGH CLOUDS...POSSIBLY GOING BROKEN DURING THE DAY MONDAY
NORTHERN PORTIONS. WINDS WILL BE CALM TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT
AND THEN BECOME S/SW UP TO 10 KNOTS ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
THEN LINGERS OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS FROM THE NW ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
7 PM UPDATE...EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY UNTIL 10
PM EDT. SCA CONTINUES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ESE FROM THE OH VALLEY LATE
THIS AFTN/EVE...ALLOWING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO
SUBSIDE. WILL DROP HEADLINES FOR THE RIVERS AT 4 PM...AND SHOULD
BE ABLE TO DROP HEADLINES FOR THE BAY/SOUND AT 7 PM...AND BY
MIDNIGHT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS.

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...ALLOWING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...ACCOMPANIED BY
CAA AND MORE SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE NE
OFF THE COAST WED-FRI...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF SCA CONDITIONS. FLOW WOULD AGAIN BE OFFSHORE FROM THE NW SO SEAS
WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT. WAVES REACHING 4 FT ON THE BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LKB/LSA






000
FXUS61 KLWX 200114
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
914 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY PASS BY THE AREA TO THE SOUTH...
USHERING IN CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL QUICKLY DIVE DOWN THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST...BUT SLOW DOWN AND RESIDE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW
ENGLAND REGIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA...LEADING TO CHILLY CONDITIONS. THE FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN
EXTENDED IN AREA TO INCLUDE THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SUBURBS OF
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE. A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
GRANT...PENDLETON AND HIGHLAND COUNTIES IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.
THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS DOES ADD TO THE UNCERTAINTY AS TO
HOW MUCH FROST WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...BUT SINCE THE CLOUD DECK
WILL BE THIN AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THERE WAS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY FOR AREAS OF FROST LATE TONIGHT.

MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE
HIGHLANDS...TO THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SUBURBS OF WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE...TO
THE MIDDLE 40S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A ONE-DAY REPRIEVE FROM THE FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS AS THE SFC HIGH
ROLLING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS MAKES AN EXIT OFF THE COAST AND
BRINGS IN RETURN SLY FLOW. THIS WIND REGIME WILL ALLOW FOR A MINOR
WARM-UP RELATIVE TO TODAY`S CONDITIONS. AS WINDS SWITCH OUT OF THE
SOUTH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER-LIKE FEATURE
WILL DIVE DOWN TOWARD THE AREA FROM N OF THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE
APEX OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE REACH NRN NY MON EVE...THE SYSTEM AS A
WHOLE WILL DECELERATE AND BEGIN TO CUT-OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER
JET STREAM.

MOISTURE WILL RETURNS FROM THE TOP-DOWN AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES. THICKER MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECKS WILL ARRIVE LATE
MON AFTN/EVE ON THE ERN FRINGE OF THE INCOMING UPPER WAVE. FALLING
PRECIP WILL HAVE A SIZABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME BEFORE
REACHING THE SFC...BUT THIS WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE LATE NIGHT HRS.

INCREASE POPS FOR THE CNTRL APLCNS LATE MON AND KEPT A LOW CHANCE
FURTHER EAST TO THE BLUE RIDGE. THE SFC TROUGH CROSSES THE CWA
MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW CROSSES THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW CHANCES
FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE CWA AS DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL GREATLY
LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WITH
DOWNSLOPING FLOW COUNTERACTING CLOUD COVER FROM KEEPING
TEMPERATURES TOO LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROUGH WILL JUMP SOUTHWARD FROM OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WORKWEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. THE LOW WILL LOOSE SOME OF ITS
ORGANIZATION...LIKELY DUE TO THE PASSAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT
POPS WILL ENTER THE HIGH END CHANCE RANGE BEGINNING TUESDAY.
PRECIP TYPE SHOULD MOSTLY BE LIGHT RAIN WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL OCCLUDE FROM THE BACKGROUND WESTERLIES AS
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OFF OF THE NORTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. OPERATIONAL EURO AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE HIGHEST QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM BEING
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LOW WELL OFF OF THE COAST...BUT
LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD CONTINUE LOCALLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

COOL AND BREEZY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL FILL IN AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES
UP THE COAST THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. THIS WILL LEAD
TO CLEARING SKIES AND TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD FOR THE WEEKEND
ALLOWING TEMPS TO BEGIN TO SLOWLY REBOUND TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE TURNING TO THE SOUTH MONDAY
WITH GUSTS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. PATCHY BR IS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF AVIATION HAZARDS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH MONDAY AND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH SCA CRITERIA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
HAVE CAPPED GUSTS AT 15 KNOTS FOR NOW DUE TO THE RELATIVELY COOLER
WATERS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC IN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE NORTHEAST COAST BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ003>007-009-
     010-501-502.
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ025>031-
     036>040-042-050>053-501-502.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ050>053-055-
     502>504.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ501-505-506.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GMS
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...BJL/CEB
AVIATION...BJL/GMS/CEB
MARINE...BJL/GMS/CEB







000
FXUS61 KLWX 200114
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
914 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY PASS BY THE AREA TO THE SOUTH...
USHERING IN CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL QUICKLY DIVE DOWN THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST...BUT SLOW DOWN AND RESIDE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW
ENGLAND REGIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA...LEADING TO CHILLY CONDITIONS. THE FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN
EXTENDED IN AREA TO INCLUDE THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SUBURBS OF
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE. A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
GRANT...PENDLETON AND HIGHLAND COUNTIES IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.
THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS DOES ADD TO THE UNCERTAINTY AS TO
HOW MUCH FROST WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...BUT SINCE THE CLOUD DECK
WILL BE THIN AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THERE WAS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY FOR AREAS OF FROST LATE TONIGHT.

MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE
HIGHLANDS...TO THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SUBURBS OF WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE...TO
THE MIDDLE 40S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A ONE-DAY REPRIEVE FROM THE FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS AS THE SFC HIGH
ROLLING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS MAKES AN EXIT OFF THE COAST AND
BRINGS IN RETURN SLY FLOW. THIS WIND REGIME WILL ALLOW FOR A MINOR
WARM-UP RELATIVE TO TODAY`S CONDITIONS. AS WINDS SWITCH OUT OF THE
SOUTH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER-LIKE FEATURE
WILL DIVE DOWN TOWARD THE AREA FROM N OF THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE
APEX OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE REACH NRN NY MON EVE...THE SYSTEM AS A
WHOLE WILL DECELERATE AND BEGIN TO CUT-OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER
JET STREAM.

MOISTURE WILL RETURNS FROM THE TOP-DOWN AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES. THICKER MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECKS WILL ARRIVE LATE
MON AFTN/EVE ON THE ERN FRINGE OF THE INCOMING UPPER WAVE. FALLING
PRECIP WILL HAVE A SIZABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME BEFORE
REACHING THE SFC...BUT THIS WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE LATE NIGHT HRS.

INCREASE POPS FOR THE CNTRL APLCNS LATE MON AND KEPT A LOW CHANCE
FURTHER EAST TO THE BLUE RIDGE. THE SFC TROUGH CROSSES THE CWA
MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW CROSSES THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW CHANCES
FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE CWA AS DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL GREATLY
LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WITH
DOWNSLOPING FLOW COUNTERACTING CLOUD COVER FROM KEEPING
TEMPERATURES TOO LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROUGH WILL JUMP SOUTHWARD FROM OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WORKWEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. THE LOW WILL LOOSE SOME OF ITS
ORGANIZATION...LIKELY DUE TO THE PASSAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT
POPS WILL ENTER THE HIGH END CHANCE RANGE BEGINNING TUESDAY.
PRECIP TYPE SHOULD MOSTLY BE LIGHT RAIN WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL OCCLUDE FROM THE BACKGROUND WESTERLIES AS
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OFF OF THE NORTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. OPERATIONAL EURO AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE HIGHEST QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM BEING
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LOW WELL OFF OF THE COAST...BUT
LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD CONTINUE LOCALLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

COOL AND BREEZY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL FILL IN AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES
UP THE COAST THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. THIS WILL LEAD
TO CLEARING SKIES AND TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD FOR THE WEEKEND
ALLOWING TEMPS TO BEGIN TO SLOWLY REBOUND TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE TURNING TO THE SOUTH MONDAY
WITH GUSTS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. PATCHY BR IS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF AVIATION HAZARDS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH MONDAY AND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH SCA CRITERIA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
HAVE CAPPED GUSTS AT 15 KNOTS FOR NOW DUE TO THE RELATIVELY COOLER
WATERS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC IN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE NORTHEAST COAST BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ003>007-009-
     010-501-502.
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ025>031-
     036>040-042-050>053-501-502.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ050>053-055-
     502>504.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ501-505-506.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GMS
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...BJL/CEB
AVIATION...BJL/GMS/CEB
MARINE...BJL/GMS/CEB








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 192350
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
750 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WITH 8PM UPDATE...MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO SKY AND
TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. CIRRUS COVERAGE HAS
COME IN A BIT MORE QUICKLY THAN EXPECTED...AND THINK THAT THIS MAY
SLOW DOWN THE COOLING TREND OVERNIGHT ENOUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES TO PREVENT FROST FROM DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE
WITH FROST ADVISORY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MID- AND UPR-LVL CLDS WILL INCR AHEAD OF APRCHG SHRTWV TROF THAT
WILL DIG INTO GRTLKS TNGT. WIND ALREADY HAS BCM LGT AND WILL BACK
TO SWLY IN RESPONSE TO APRCHG TROF. WITH LGT WIND...COOL TEMPS AND
LMTD THICKNESS TO CI IMPINGING ON SRN ZONES...FROST WILL BE PSBL
IN FAR SRN ZONES... WHERE CLD CVR WILL BE SLOWEST TO ARRIVE. FROST
ADZY WAS ISSUED FOR MARION/MONONGALIA/WETZEL CTYS FOR LATE TNGT.
ELSEWHERE...GROWING SEASON IS OVER OR MINIMA WILL RMN TOO ELEVATED
FOR FROST.

PREV SHIFT TRENDED SLOWER WITH PCPN ONSET ON MON...WHICH SEEMS
LIKE A GOOD CHOICE. THIS TREND WAS CONTD TDA...WITH PCPN ONLY XPCD
TO REACH NWRN ZONES BY LATE MON AFTN. TROF AXIS WILL CROSS MON
NGT...AND PCPN WILL SHIFT EWD THRU EARLY TUE MRNG. BY END OF MON
NGT PD...PCPN SHOULD BE MAINLY FOCUSED IN FAR ERN ZONES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH UPR TROF AND ALONG LAKESHORES AS NWLY FLOW BEHIND
CDFNT INCRS CVRG OF LAKE-ENHANCED SHWRS. PRIMARY ADJUSTMENT THESE
PDS WAS TO INCR POPS TO CATEGORICAL MON NGT AND INTRODUCE SHARPER
PCPN GRADIENT BY TUE MRNG.

TEMPS ON MON XPCD TO CLIMB INTO MID-UPR 50S AS FILTERED SUNSHINE
XPCD IN WARM SECTOR OWING TO SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PCPN. KRAMAR

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BRIEF MORNING LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY MORNING WILL
QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY MORE INSTABILITY AND WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY BY AFTERNOON AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVES DOWN
THE BACK SIDE AND INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGER WAVE RESIDENT TROUGH
OVER THE REGION. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES FALL FAIRLY WELL BY
AFTERNOON...IN FACT EVEN ENOUGH THAT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY CAN
BE NOTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. WHILE VERY SKINNY CAPE DOES MANAGE TO
WORK ITS WAY UP ABOVE THE -20C LEVEL...TOTAL CAPE VALUES OF
ROUGHLY 100 J/KG AND MINIMAL SHEAR MAKE ADDING THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE FORECAST SEEM LIKE OVERKILL. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
THERE MAY BE A ONE STRIKE WONDER AROUND.

UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW THEN CONTINUES AS THE UPPER LOW CLOSES
OFF...CUTS OFF...AND SLOWLY...BEGRUDINGLY...MEANDERS EASTWARD FROM
THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS ALLOWS FOR A PAINSTAKINGLY SLOW
WIND DOWN IN POPS AND AN EVEN SLOWER CLEAR OUT OF THE SKIES GOING
TOWARD THE LONGER TERM. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SYSTEM FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A
PERIOD OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR INTO MONDAY AS ONLY CIRRUS ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING MID DECK NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST MONDAY WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTS
LATE DAY.

.AVIATION /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS EAST OF THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ012-021-022.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 192350
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
750 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WITH 8PM UPDATE...MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO SKY AND
TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. CIRRUS COVERAGE HAS
COME IN A BIT MORE QUICKLY THAN EXPECTED...AND THINK THAT THIS MAY
SLOW DOWN THE COOLING TREND OVERNIGHT ENOUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES TO PREVENT FROST FROM DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE
WITH FROST ADVISORY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MID- AND UPR-LVL CLDS WILL INCR AHEAD OF APRCHG SHRTWV TROF THAT
WILL DIG INTO GRTLKS TNGT. WIND ALREADY HAS BCM LGT AND WILL BACK
TO SWLY IN RESPONSE TO APRCHG TROF. WITH LGT WIND...COOL TEMPS AND
LMTD THICKNESS TO CI IMPINGING ON SRN ZONES...FROST WILL BE PSBL
IN FAR SRN ZONES... WHERE CLD CVR WILL BE SLOWEST TO ARRIVE. FROST
ADZY WAS ISSUED FOR MARION/MONONGALIA/WETZEL CTYS FOR LATE TNGT.
ELSEWHERE...GROWING SEASON IS OVER OR MINIMA WILL RMN TOO ELEVATED
FOR FROST.

PREV SHIFT TRENDED SLOWER WITH PCPN ONSET ON MON...WHICH SEEMS
LIKE A GOOD CHOICE. THIS TREND WAS CONTD TDA...WITH PCPN ONLY XPCD
TO REACH NWRN ZONES BY LATE MON AFTN. TROF AXIS WILL CROSS MON
NGT...AND PCPN WILL SHIFT EWD THRU EARLY TUE MRNG. BY END OF MON
NGT PD...PCPN SHOULD BE MAINLY FOCUSED IN FAR ERN ZONES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH UPR TROF AND ALONG LAKESHORES AS NWLY FLOW BEHIND
CDFNT INCRS CVRG OF LAKE-ENHANCED SHWRS. PRIMARY ADJUSTMENT THESE
PDS WAS TO INCR POPS TO CATEGORICAL MON NGT AND INTRODUCE SHARPER
PCPN GRADIENT BY TUE MRNG.

TEMPS ON MON XPCD TO CLIMB INTO MID-UPR 50S AS FILTERED SUNSHINE
XPCD IN WARM SECTOR OWING TO SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PCPN. KRAMAR

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BRIEF MORNING LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY MORNING WILL
QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY MORE INSTABILITY AND WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY BY AFTERNOON AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVES DOWN
THE BACK SIDE AND INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGER WAVE RESIDENT TROUGH
OVER THE REGION. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES FALL FAIRLY WELL BY
AFTERNOON...IN FACT EVEN ENOUGH THAT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY CAN
BE NOTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. WHILE VERY SKINNY CAPE DOES MANAGE TO
WORK ITS WAY UP ABOVE THE -20C LEVEL...TOTAL CAPE VALUES OF
ROUGHLY 100 J/KG AND MINIMAL SHEAR MAKE ADDING THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE FORECAST SEEM LIKE OVERKILL. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
THERE MAY BE A ONE STRIKE WONDER AROUND.

UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW THEN CONTINUES AS THE UPPER LOW CLOSES
OFF...CUTS OFF...AND SLOWLY...BEGRUDINGLY...MEANDERS EASTWARD FROM
THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS ALLOWS FOR A PAINSTAKINGLY SLOW
WIND DOWN IN POPS AND AN EVEN SLOWER CLEAR OUT OF THE SKIES GOING
TOWARD THE LONGER TERM. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SYSTEM FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A
PERIOD OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR INTO MONDAY AS ONLY CIRRUS ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING MID DECK NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST MONDAY WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTS
LATE DAY.

.AVIATION /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS EAST OF THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ012-021-022.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 192350
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
750 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WITH 8PM UPDATE...MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO SKY AND
TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. CIRRUS COVERAGE HAS
COME IN A BIT MORE QUICKLY THAN EXPECTED...AND THINK THAT THIS MAY
SLOW DOWN THE COOLING TREND OVERNIGHT ENOUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES TO PREVENT FROST FROM DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE
WITH FROST ADVISORY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MID- AND UPR-LVL CLDS WILL INCR AHEAD OF APRCHG SHRTWV TROF THAT
WILL DIG INTO GRTLKS TNGT. WIND ALREADY HAS BCM LGT AND WILL BACK
TO SWLY IN RESPONSE TO APRCHG TROF. WITH LGT WIND...COOL TEMPS AND
LMTD THICKNESS TO CI IMPINGING ON SRN ZONES...FROST WILL BE PSBL
IN FAR SRN ZONES... WHERE CLD CVR WILL BE SLOWEST TO ARRIVE. FROST
ADZY WAS ISSUED FOR MARION/MONONGALIA/WETZEL CTYS FOR LATE TNGT.
ELSEWHERE...GROWING SEASON IS OVER OR MINIMA WILL RMN TOO ELEVATED
FOR FROST.

PREV SHIFT TRENDED SLOWER WITH PCPN ONSET ON MON...WHICH SEEMS
LIKE A GOOD CHOICE. THIS TREND WAS CONTD TDA...WITH PCPN ONLY XPCD
TO REACH NWRN ZONES BY LATE MON AFTN. TROF AXIS WILL CROSS MON
NGT...AND PCPN WILL SHIFT EWD THRU EARLY TUE MRNG. BY END OF MON
NGT PD...PCPN SHOULD BE MAINLY FOCUSED IN FAR ERN ZONES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH UPR TROF AND ALONG LAKESHORES AS NWLY FLOW BEHIND
CDFNT INCRS CVRG OF LAKE-ENHANCED SHWRS. PRIMARY ADJUSTMENT THESE
PDS WAS TO INCR POPS TO CATEGORICAL MON NGT AND INTRODUCE SHARPER
PCPN GRADIENT BY TUE MRNG.

TEMPS ON MON XPCD TO CLIMB INTO MID-UPR 50S AS FILTERED SUNSHINE
XPCD IN WARM SECTOR OWING TO SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PCPN. KRAMAR

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BRIEF MORNING LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY MORNING WILL
QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY MORE INSTABILITY AND WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY BY AFTERNOON AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVES DOWN
THE BACK SIDE AND INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGER WAVE RESIDENT TROUGH
OVER THE REGION. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES FALL FAIRLY WELL BY
AFTERNOON...IN FACT EVEN ENOUGH THAT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY CAN
BE NOTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. WHILE VERY SKINNY CAPE DOES MANAGE TO
WORK ITS WAY UP ABOVE THE -20C LEVEL...TOTAL CAPE VALUES OF
ROUGHLY 100 J/KG AND MINIMAL SHEAR MAKE ADDING THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE FORECAST SEEM LIKE OVERKILL. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
THERE MAY BE A ONE STRIKE WONDER AROUND.

UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW THEN CONTINUES AS THE UPPER LOW CLOSES
OFF...CUTS OFF...AND SLOWLY...BEGRUDINGLY...MEANDERS EASTWARD FROM
THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS ALLOWS FOR A PAINSTAKINGLY SLOW
WIND DOWN IN POPS AND AN EVEN SLOWER CLEAR OUT OF THE SKIES GOING
TOWARD THE LONGER TERM. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SYSTEM FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A
PERIOD OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR INTO MONDAY AS ONLY CIRRUS ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING MID DECK NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST MONDAY WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTS
LATE DAY.

.AVIATION /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS EAST OF THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ012-021-022.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 192350
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
750 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WITH 8PM UPDATE...MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO SKY AND
TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. CIRRUS COVERAGE HAS
COME IN A BIT MORE QUICKLY THAN EXPECTED...AND THINK THAT THIS MAY
SLOW DOWN THE COOLING TREND OVERNIGHT ENOUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES TO PREVENT FROST FROM DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE
WITH FROST ADVISORY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MID- AND UPR-LVL CLDS WILL INCR AHEAD OF APRCHG SHRTWV TROF THAT
WILL DIG INTO GRTLKS TNGT. WIND ALREADY HAS BCM LGT AND WILL BACK
TO SWLY IN RESPONSE TO APRCHG TROF. WITH LGT WIND...COOL TEMPS AND
LMTD THICKNESS TO CI IMPINGING ON SRN ZONES...FROST WILL BE PSBL
IN FAR SRN ZONES... WHERE CLD CVR WILL BE SLOWEST TO ARRIVE. FROST
ADZY WAS ISSUED FOR MARION/MONONGALIA/WETZEL CTYS FOR LATE TNGT.
ELSEWHERE...GROWING SEASON IS OVER OR MINIMA WILL RMN TOO ELEVATED
FOR FROST.

PREV SHIFT TRENDED SLOWER WITH PCPN ONSET ON MON...WHICH SEEMS
LIKE A GOOD CHOICE. THIS TREND WAS CONTD TDA...WITH PCPN ONLY XPCD
TO REACH NWRN ZONES BY LATE MON AFTN. TROF AXIS WILL CROSS MON
NGT...AND PCPN WILL SHIFT EWD THRU EARLY TUE MRNG. BY END OF MON
NGT PD...PCPN SHOULD BE MAINLY FOCUSED IN FAR ERN ZONES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH UPR TROF AND ALONG LAKESHORES AS NWLY FLOW BEHIND
CDFNT INCRS CVRG OF LAKE-ENHANCED SHWRS. PRIMARY ADJUSTMENT THESE
PDS WAS TO INCR POPS TO CATEGORICAL MON NGT AND INTRODUCE SHARPER
PCPN GRADIENT BY TUE MRNG.

TEMPS ON MON XPCD TO CLIMB INTO MID-UPR 50S AS FILTERED SUNSHINE
XPCD IN WARM SECTOR OWING TO SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PCPN. KRAMAR

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BRIEF MORNING LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY MORNING WILL
QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY MORE INSTABILITY AND WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY BY AFTERNOON AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVES DOWN
THE BACK SIDE AND INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGER WAVE RESIDENT TROUGH
OVER THE REGION. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES FALL FAIRLY WELL BY
AFTERNOON...IN FACT EVEN ENOUGH THAT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY CAN
BE NOTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. WHILE VERY SKINNY CAPE DOES MANAGE TO
WORK ITS WAY UP ABOVE THE -20C LEVEL...TOTAL CAPE VALUES OF
ROUGHLY 100 J/KG AND MINIMAL SHEAR MAKE ADDING THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE FORECAST SEEM LIKE OVERKILL. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
THERE MAY BE A ONE STRIKE WONDER AROUND.

UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW THEN CONTINUES AS THE UPPER LOW CLOSES
OFF...CUTS OFF...AND SLOWLY...BEGRUDINGLY...MEANDERS EASTWARD FROM
THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS ALLOWS FOR A PAINSTAKINGLY SLOW
WIND DOWN IN POPS AND AN EVEN SLOWER CLEAR OUT OF THE SKIES GOING
TOWARD THE LONGER TERM. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SYSTEM FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A
PERIOD OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR INTO MONDAY AS ONLY CIRRUS ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING MID DECK NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST MONDAY WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTS
LATE DAY.

.AVIATION /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS EAST OF THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ012-021-022.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 192350
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
750 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WITH 8PM UPDATE...MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO SKY AND
TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. CIRRUS COVERAGE HAS
COME IN A BIT MORE QUICKLY THAN EXPECTED...AND THINK THAT THIS MAY
SLOW DOWN THE COOLING TREND OVERNIGHT ENOUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES TO PREVENT FROST FROM DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE
WITH FROST ADVISORY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MID- AND UPR-LVL CLDS WILL INCR AHEAD OF APRCHG SHRTWV TROF THAT
WILL DIG INTO GRTLKS TNGT. WIND ALREADY HAS BCM LGT AND WILL BACK
TO SWLY IN RESPONSE TO APRCHG TROF. WITH LGT WIND...COOL TEMPS AND
LMTD THICKNESS TO CI IMPINGING ON SRN ZONES...FROST WILL BE PSBL
IN FAR SRN ZONES... WHERE CLD CVR WILL BE SLOWEST TO ARRIVE. FROST
ADZY WAS ISSUED FOR MARION/MONONGALIA/WETZEL CTYS FOR LATE TNGT.
ELSEWHERE...GROWING SEASON IS OVER OR MINIMA WILL RMN TOO ELEVATED
FOR FROST.

PREV SHIFT TRENDED SLOWER WITH PCPN ONSET ON MON...WHICH SEEMS
LIKE A GOOD CHOICE. THIS TREND WAS CONTD TDA...WITH PCPN ONLY XPCD
TO REACH NWRN ZONES BY LATE MON AFTN. TROF AXIS WILL CROSS MON
NGT...AND PCPN WILL SHIFT EWD THRU EARLY TUE MRNG. BY END OF MON
NGT PD...PCPN SHOULD BE MAINLY FOCUSED IN FAR ERN ZONES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH UPR TROF AND ALONG LAKESHORES AS NWLY FLOW BEHIND
CDFNT INCRS CVRG OF LAKE-ENHANCED SHWRS. PRIMARY ADJUSTMENT THESE
PDS WAS TO INCR POPS TO CATEGORICAL MON NGT AND INTRODUCE SHARPER
PCPN GRADIENT BY TUE MRNG.

TEMPS ON MON XPCD TO CLIMB INTO MID-UPR 50S AS FILTERED SUNSHINE
XPCD IN WARM SECTOR OWING TO SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PCPN. KRAMAR

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BRIEF MORNING LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY MORNING WILL
QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY MORE INSTABILITY AND WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY BY AFTERNOON AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVES DOWN
THE BACK SIDE AND INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGER WAVE RESIDENT TROUGH
OVER THE REGION. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES FALL FAIRLY WELL BY
AFTERNOON...IN FACT EVEN ENOUGH THAT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY CAN
BE NOTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. WHILE VERY SKINNY CAPE DOES MANAGE TO
WORK ITS WAY UP ABOVE THE -20C LEVEL...TOTAL CAPE VALUES OF
ROUGHLY 100 J/KG AND MINIMAL SHEAR MAKE ADDING THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE FORECAST SEEM LIKE OVERKILL. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
THERE MAY BE A ONE STRIKE WONDER AROUND.

UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW THEN CONTINUES AS THE UPPER LOW CLOSES
OFF...CUTS OFF...AND SLOWLY...BEGRUDINGLY...MEANDERS EASTWARD FROM
THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS ALLOWS FOR A PAINSTAKINGLY SLOW
WIND DOWN IN POPS AND AN EVEN SLOWER CLEAR OUT OF THE SKIES GOING
TOWARD THE LONGER TERM. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SYSTEM FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A
PERIOD OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR INTO MONDAY AS ONLY CIRRUS ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING MID DECK NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST MONDAY WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTS
LATE DAY.

.AVIATION /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS EAST OF THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ012-021-022.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 192336
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
736 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO/TN
VLYS THIS AFTERNOON. W-NW FLOW ALOFT AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE ALLOWING FOR A PLEASANT, ALBEIT COOL FALL AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS
THE REGION.

SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS
EVENING, SETTLING ALONG THE SE COASTAL PLAIN BY LATE TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL DECOUPLE EARLY ON TONIGHT. THIS IN TANDEM WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY WILL BRING EXCEPTIONAL RADIATING CONDITIONS WHICH WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP TO AROUND 40 DEGREES INLAND
(OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS) BY MIDNIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE A BIT LESS
CHILLY THAN 00Z NUMBERS, LIKELY OWING TO WEAK WAA LATE AND EXPECTED
CIRRUS ASSOCIATED W/H3 JET STREAK SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER,
AS PREV SHIFT NOTED, THIN CIRRUS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT COOLING.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND TO MID 40S
OVER THE COAST. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE. NO HEADLINES
PLANNED...BUT WILL CONTINUE HWO MENTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE MONDAY AS SLY RETURN FLOW/WAA
COMMENCES. AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE
REGION TUES AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE AS THE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACH. INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE UPPER
60S.

LOW PRESSURE DROPS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC MON NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AS THE CLIPPER FRONT, WITH
THE ASSOCIATED CLIPPER FRONT CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS EARLY
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE AN INVERTED TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPS
ALONG/JUST OFF THE SE COAST/MID-ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG UPPER VORT
MAX ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING UPPER LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CONUS TUESDAY NIGHT-LATE WED, THUS ENHANCING UVM ALONG
THE FRONT. HOWEVER, AS WE SAW WITH THE LAST SYSTEM YESTERDAY, LLVL
MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH PWATS REMAINING ON THE ORDER OF
0.75-1.00". STILL, MODELS ARE INTENT ON LIGHT QPF THROUGH THE
AFTN/EVE HOURS ON TUESDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH
CLOSEST TO BEST SLUG OF OVERRUNNING MOISTURE. WILL STICK WITH A
CHC POP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE TUE
AFTN...LINGERING INTO TUE NGT OVER THE COASTAL AREAS AS MOISTURE
SHIFTS EAST AND ALONG COASTAL TROUGH. FOR HIGHS, LOOK FOR MAXIMA
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TUES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS TUE NGT IN THE U40S WELL INLAND TO MID 50S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL ZONES.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS
AS THE TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WL THEREFORE KEEP
FORECAST DRY WEST OF I-95 ON WED, WITH LOW CHC POP FARTHER EAST
FOR SOME SCT SHRAS OVER COASTAL AREAS/ERN SHORE. HIGHS WED
REMAIN BELOW CLIMO NUMBERS...GENERALLY IN THE L-M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WED NIGHT THRU
FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS (~30%) ACROSS FAR EASTERN
ZONES WED NIGHT...LOWERING TO SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) OVER THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE ON THURS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COASTAL LOW LATE IN THE COMING WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...PUSHING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION NEXT SUNDAY. DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED.
HIGHS THU 60-65...THEN FRI-SUN IN THE MID/UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE 40S
TO LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS INDICATED FOR THE 00Z TAF PERIOD OTHER THAN
SOME SCT HIGH CLOUDS...POSSIBLY GOING BROKEN DURING THE DAY MONDAY
NORTHERN PORTIONS. WINDS WILL BE CALM TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT
AND THEN BECOME S/SW UP TO 10 KNOTS ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
THEN LINGERS OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS FROM THE NW ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
7 PM UPDATE...EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY UNTIL 10
PM EDT. SCA CONTINUES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ESE FROM THE OH VALLEY LATE
THIS AFTN/EVE...ALLOWING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO
SUBSIDE. WILL DROP HEADLINES FOR THE RIVERS AT 4 PM...AND SHOULD
BE ABLE TO DROP HEADLINES FOR THE BAY/SOUND AT 7 PM...AND BY
MIDNIGHT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS.

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...ALLOWING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...ACCOMPANIED BY
CAA AND MORE SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE NE
OFF THE COAST WED-FRI...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF SCA CONDITIONS. FLOW WOULD AGAIN BE OFFSHORE FROM THE NW SO SEAS
WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT. WAVES REACHING 4 FT ON THE BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LKB/LSA






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 192336
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
736 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO/TN
VLYS THIS AFTERNOON. W-NW FLOW ALOFT AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE ALLOWING FOR A PLEASANT, ALBEIT COOL FALL AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS
THE REGION.

SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS
EVENING, SETTLING ALONG THE SE COASTAL PLAIN BY LATE TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL DECOUPLE EARLY ON TONIGHT. THIS IN TANDEM WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY WILL BRING EXCEPTIONAL RADIATING CONDITIONS WHICH WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP TO AROUND 40 DEGREES INLAND
(OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS) BY MIDNIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE A BIT LESS
CHILLY THAN 00Z NUMBERS, LIKELY OWING TO WEAK WAA LATE AND EXPECTED
CIRRUS ASSOCIATED W/H3 JET STREAK SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER,
AS PREV SHIFT NOTED, THIN CIRRUS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT COOLING.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND TO MID 40S
OVER THE COAST. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE. NO HEADLINES
PLANNED...BUT WILL CONTINUE HWO MENTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE MONDAY AS SLY RETURN FLOW/WAA
COMMENCES. AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE
REGION TUES AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE AS THE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACH. INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE UPPER
60S.

LOW PRESSURE DROPS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC MON NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AS THE CLIPPER FRONT, WITH
THE ASSOCIATED CLIPPER FRONT CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS EARLY
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE AN INVERTED TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPS
ALONG/JUST OFF THE SE COAST/MID-ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG UPPER VORT
MAX ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING UPPER LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CONUS TUESDAY NIGHT-LATE WED, THUS ENHANCING UVM ALONG
THE FRONT. HOWEVER, AS WE SAW WITH THE LAST SYSTEM YESTERDAY, LLVL
MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH PWATS REMAINING ON THE ORDER OF
0.75-1.00". STILL, MODELS ARE INTENT ON LIGHT QPF THROUGH THE
AFTN/EVE HOURS ON TUESDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH
CLOSEST TO BEST SLUG OF OVERRUNNING MOISTURE. WILL STICK WITH A
CHC POP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE TUE
AFTN...LINGERING INTO TUE NGT OVER THE COASTAL AREAS AS MOISTURE
SHIFTS EAST AND ALONG COASTAL TROUGH. FOR HIGHS, LOOK FOR MAXIMA
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TUES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS TUE NGT IN THE U40S WELL INLAND TO MID 50S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL ZONES.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS
AS THE TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WL THEREFORE KEEP
FORECAST DRY WEST OF I-95 ON WED, WITH LOW CHC POP FARTHER EAST
FOR SOME SCT SHRAS OVER COASTAL AREAS/ERN SHORE. HIGHS WED
REMAIN BELOW CLIMO NUMBERS...GENERALLY IN THE L-M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WED NIGHT THRU
FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS (~30%) ACROSS FAR EASTERN
ZONES WED NIGHT...LOWERING TO SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) OVER THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE ON THURS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COASTAL LOW LATE IN THE COMING WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...PUSHING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION NEXT SUNDAY. DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED.
HIGHS THU 60-65...THEN FRI-SUN IN THE MID/UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE 40S
TO LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS INDICATED FOR THE 00Z TAF PERIOD OTHER THAN
SOME SCT HIGH CLOUDS...POSSIBLY GOING BROKEN DURING THE DAY MONDAY
NORTHERN PORTIONS. WINDS WILL BE CALM TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT
AND THEN BECOME S/SW UP TO 10 KNOTS ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
THEN LINGERS OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS FROM THE NW ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
7 PM UPDATE...EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY UNTIL 10
PM EDT. SCA CONTINUES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ESE FROM THE OH VALLEY LATE
THIS AFTN/EVE...ALLOWING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO
SUBSIDE. WILL DROP HEADLINES FOR THE RIVERS AT 4 PM...AND SHOULD
BE ABLE TO DROP HEADLINES FOR THE BAY/SOUND AT 7 PM...AND BY
MIDNIGHT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS.

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...ALLOWING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...ACCOMPANIED BY
CAA AND MORE SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE NE
OFF THE COAST WED-FRI...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF SCA CONDITIONS. FLOW WOULD AGAIN BE OFFSHORE FROM THE NW SO SEAS
WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT. WAVES REACHING 4 FT ON THE BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LKB/LSA







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 192336
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
736 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO/TN
VLYS THIS AFTERNOON. W-NW FLOW ALOFT AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE ALLOWING FOR A PLEASANT, ALBEIT COOL FALL AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS
THE REGION.

SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS
EVENING, SETTLING ALONG THE SE COASTAL PLAIN BY LATE TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL DECOUPLE EARLY ON TONIGHT. THIS IN TANDEM WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY WILL BRING EXCEPTIONAL RADIATING CONDITIONS WHICH WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP TO AROUND 40 DEGREES INLAND
(OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS) BY MIDNIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE A BIT LESS
CHILLY THAN 00Z NUMBERS, LIKELY OWING TO WEAK WAA LATE AND EXPECTED
CIRRUS ASSOCIATED W/H3 JET STREAK SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER,
AS PREV SHIFT NOTED, THIN CIRRUS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT COOLING.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND TO MID 40S
OVER THE COAST. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE. NO HEADLINES
PLANNED...BUT WILL CONTINUE HWO MENTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE MONDAY AS SLY RETURN FLOW/WAA
COMMENCES. AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE
REGION TUES AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE AS THE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACH. INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE UPPER
60S.

LOW PRESSURE DROPS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC MON NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AS THE CLIPPER FRONT, WITH
THE ASSOCIATED CLIPPER FRONT CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS EARLY
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE AN INVERTED TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPS
ALONG/JUST OFF THE SE COAST/MID-ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG UPPER VORT
MAX ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING UPPER LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CONUS TUESDAY NIGHT-LATE WED, THUS ENHANCING UVM ALONG
THE FRONT. HOWEVER, AS WE SAW WITH THE LAST SYSTEM YESTERDAY, LLVL
MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH PWATS REMAINING ON THE ORDER OF
0.75-1.00". STILL, MODELS ARE INTENT ON LIGHT QPF THROUGH THE
AFTN/EVE HOURS ON TUESDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH
CLOSEST TO BEST SLUG OF OVERRUNNING MOISTURE. WILL STICK WITH A
CHC POP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE TUE
AFTN...LINGERING INTO TUE NGT OVER THE COASTAL AREAS AS MOISTURE
SHIFTS EAST AND ALONG COASTAL TROUGH. FOR HIGHS, LOOK FOR MAXIMA
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TUES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS TUE NGT IN THE U40S WELL INLAND TO MID 50S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL ZONES.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS
AS THE TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WL THEREFORE KEEP
FORECAST DRY WEST OF I-95 ON WED, WITH LOW CHC POP FARTHER EAST
FOR SOME SCT SHRAS OVER COASTAL AREAS/ERN SHORE. HIGHS WED
REMAIN BELOW CLIMO NUMBERS...GENERALLY IN THE L-M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WED NIGHT THRU
FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS (~30%) ACROSS FAR EASTERN
ZONES WED NIGHT...LOWERING TO SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) OVER THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE ON THURS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COASTAL LOW LATE IN THE COMING WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...PUSHING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION NEXT SUNDAY. DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED.
HIGHS THU 60-65...THEN FRI-SUN IN THE MID/UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE 40S
TO LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS INDICATED FOR THE 00Z TAF PERIOD OTHER THAN
SOME SCT HIGH CLOUDS...POSSIBLY GOING BROKEN DURING THE DAY MONDAY
NORTHERN PORTIONS. WINDS WILL BE CALM TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT
AND THEN BECOME S/SW UP TO 10 KNOTS ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
THEN LINGERS OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS FROM THE NW ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
7 PM UPDATE...EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY UNTIL 10
PM EDT. SCA CONTINUES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ESE FROM THE OH VALLEY LATE
THIS AFTN/EVE...ALLOWING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO
SUBSIDE. WILL DROP HEADLINES FOR THE RIVERS AT 4 PM...AND SHOULD
BE ABLE TO DROP HEADLINES FOR THE BAY/SOUND AT 7 PM...AND BY
MIDNIGHT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS.

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...ALLOWING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...ACCOMPANIED BY
CAA AND MORE SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE NE
OFF THE COAST WED-FRI...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF SCA CONDITIONS. FLOW WOULD AGAIN BE OFFSHORE FROM THE NW SO SEAS
WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT. WAVES REACHING 4 FT ON THE BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LKB/LSA






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 192318
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
718 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WITH 5PM UPDATE...MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO SKY...WIND...AND
TEMPERATURES TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

MID- AND UPR-LVL CLDS WILL INCR AHEAD OF APRCHG SHRTWV TROF THAT
WILL DIG INTO GRTLKS TNGT. WIND ALREADY HAS BCM LGT AND WILL BACK
TO SWLY IN RESPONSE TO APRCHG TROF. WITH LGT WIND...COOL TEMPS AND
LMTD THICKNESS TO CI IMPINGING ON SRN ZONES...FROST WILL BE PSBL
IN FAR SRN ZONES... WHERE CLD CVR WILL BE SLOWEST TO ARRIVE. FROST
ADZY WAS ISSUED FOR MARION/MONONGALIA/WETZEL CTYS FOR LATE TNGT.
ELSEWHERE...GROWING SEASON IS OVER OR MINIMA WILL RMN TOO ELEVATED
FOR FROST.

PREV SHIFT TRENDED SLOWER WITH PCPN ONSET ON MON...WHICH SEEMS
LIKE A GOOD CHOICE. THIS TREND WAS CONTD TDA...WITH PCPN ONLY XPCD
TO REACH NWRN ZONES BY LATE MON AFTN. TROF AXIS WILL CROSS MON
NGT...AND PCPN WILL SHIFT EWD THRU EARLY TUE MRNG. BY END OF MON
NGT PD...PCPN SHOULD BE MAINLY FOCUSED IN FAR ERN ZONES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH UPR TROF AND ALONG LAKESHORES AS NWLY FLOW BEHIND
CDFNT INCRS CVRG OF LAKE-ENHANCED SHWRS. PRIMARY ADJUSTMENT THESE
PDS WAS TO INCR POPS TO CATEGORICAL MON NGT AND INTRODUCE SHARPER
PCPN GRADIENT BY TUE MRNG.

TEMPS ON MON XPCD TO CLIMB INTO MID-UPR 50S AS FILTERED SUNSHINE
XPCD IN WARM SECTOR OWING TO SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PCPN. KRAMAR

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BRIEF MORNING LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY MORNING WILL
QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY MORE INSTABILITY AND WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY BY AFTERNOON AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVES DOWN
THE BACK SIDE AND INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGER WAVE RESIDENT TROUGH
OVER THE REGION. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES FALL FAIRLY WELL BY
AFTERNOON...IN FACT EVEN ENOUGH THAT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY CAN
BE NOTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. WHILE VERY SKINNY CAPE DOES MANAGE TO
WORK ITS WAY UP ABOVE THE -20C LEVEL...TOTAL CAPE VALUES OF
ROUGHLY 100 J/KG AND MINIMAL SHEAR MAKE ADDING THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE FORECAST SEEM LIKE OVERKILL. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
THERE MAY BE A ONE STRIKE WONDER AROUND.

UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW THEN CONTINUES AS THE UPPER LOW CLOSES
OFF...CUTS OFF...AND SLOWLY...BEGRUDINGLY...MEANDERS EASTWARD FROM
THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS ALLOWS FOR A PAINSTAKINGLY SLOW
WIND DOWN IN POPS AND AN EVEN SLOWER CLEAR OUT OF THE SKIES GOING
TOWARD THE LONGER TERM. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SYSTEM FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A
PERIOD OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR INTO MONDAY AS ONLY CIRRUS ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING MID DECK NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST MONDAY WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTS
LATE DAY.

.AVIATION /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS EAST OF THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ012-021-022.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 192318
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
718 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WITH 5PM UPDATE...MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO SKY...WIND...AND
TEMPERATURES TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

MID- AND UPR-LVL CLDS WILL INCR AHEAD OF APRCHG SHRTWV TROF THAT
WILL DIG INTO GRTLKS TNGT. WIND ALREADY HAS BCM LGT AND WILL BACK
TO SWLY IN RESPONSE TO APRCHG TROF. WITH LGT WIND...COOL TEMPS AND
LMTD THICKNESS TO CI IMPINGING ON SRN ZONES...FROST WILL BE PSBL
IN FAR SRN ZONES... WHERE CLD CVR WILL BE SLOWEST TO ARRIVE. FROST
ADZY WAS ISSUED FOR MARION/MONONGALIA/WETZEL CTYS FOR LATE TNGT.
ELSEWHERE...GROWING SEASON IS OVER OR MINIMA WILL RMN TOO ELEVATED
FOR FROST.

PREV SHIFT TRENDED SLOWER WITH PCPN ONSET ON MON...WHICH SEEMS
LIKE A GOOD CHOICE. THIS TREND WAS CONTD TDA...WITH PCPN ONLY XPCD
TO REACH NWRN ZONES BY LATE MON AFTN. TROF AXIS WILL CROSS MON
NGT...AND PCPN WILL SHIFT EWD THRU EARLY TUE MRNG. BY END OF MON
NGT PD...PCPN SHOULD BE MAINLY FOCUSED IN FAR ERN ZONES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH UPR TROF AND ALONG LAKESHORES AS NWLY FLOW BEHIND
CDFNT INCRS CVRG OF LAKE-ENHANCED SHWRS. PRIMARY ADJUSTMENT THESE
PDS WAS TO INCR POPS TO CATEGORICAL MON NGT AND INTRODUCE SHARPER
PCPN GRADIENT BY TUE MRNG.

TEMPS ON MON XPCD TO CLIMB INTO MID-UPR 50S AS FILTERED SUNSHINE
XPCD IN WARM SECTOR OWING TO SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PCPN. KRAMAR

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BRIEF MORNING LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY MORNING WILL
QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY MORE INSTABILITY AND WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY BY AFTERNOON AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVES DOWN
THE BACK SIDE AND INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGER WAVE RESIDENT TROUGH
OVER THE REGION. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES FALL FAIRLY WELL BY
AFTERNOON...IN FACT EVEN ENOUGH THAT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY CAN
BE NOTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. WHILE VERY SKINNY CAPE DOES MANAGE TO
WORK ITS WAY UP ABOVE THE -20C LEVEL...TOTAL CAPE VALUES OF
ROUGHLY 100 J/KG AND MINIMAL SHEAR MAKE ADDING THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE FORECAST SEEM LIKE OVERKILL. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
THERE MAY BE A ONE STRIKE WONDER AROUND.

UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW THEN CONTINUES AS THE UPPER LOW CLOSES
OFF...CUTS OFF...AND SLOWLY...BEGRUDINGLY...MEANDERS EASTWARD FROM
THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS ALLOWS FOR A PAINSTAKINGLY SLOW
WIND DOWN IN POPS AND AN EVEN SLOWER CLEAR OUT OF THE SKIES GOING
TOWARD THE LONGER TERM. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SYSTEM FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A
PERIOD OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR INTO MONDAY AS ONLY CIRRUS ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING MID DECK NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST MONDAY WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTS
LATE DAY.

.AVIATION /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS EAST OF THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ012-021-022.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 192318
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
718 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WITH 5PM UPDATE...MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO SKY...WIND...AND
TEMPERATURES TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

MID- AND UPR-LVL CLDS WILL INCR AHEAD OF APRCHG SHRTWV TROF THAT
WILL DIG INTO GRTLKS TNGT. WIND ALREADY HAS BCM LGT AND WILL BACK
TO SWLY IN RESPONSE TO APRCHG TROF. WITH LGT WIND...COOL TEMPS AND
LMTD THICKNESS TO CI IMPINGING ON SRN ZONES...FROST WILL BE PSBL
IN FAR SRN ZONES... WHERE CLD CVR WILL BE SLOWEST TO ARRIVE. FROST
ADZY WAS ISSUED FOR MARION/MONONGALIA/WETZEL CTYS FOR LATE TNGT.
ELSEWHERE...GROWING SEASON IS OVER OR MINIMA WILL RMN TOO ELEVATED
FOR FROST.

PREV SHIFT TRENDED SLOWER WITH PCPN ONSET ON MON...WHICH SEEMS
LIKE A GOOD CHOICE. THIS TREND WAS CONTD TDA...WITH PCPN ONLY XPCD
TO REACH NWRN ZONES BY LATE MON AFTN. TROF AXIS WILL CROSS MON
NGT...AND PCPN WILL SHIFT EWD THRU EARLY TUE MRNG. BY END OF MON
NGT PD...PCPN SHOULD BE MAINLY FOCUSED IN FAR ERN ZONES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH UPR TROF AND ALONG LAKESHORES AS NWLY FLOW BEHIND
CDFNT INCRS CVRG OF LAKE-ENHANCED SHWRS. PRIMARY ADJUSTMENT THESE
PDS WAS TO INCR POPS TO CATEGORICAL MON NGT AND INTRODUCE SHARPER
PCPN GRADIENT BY TUE MRNG.

TEMPS ON MON XPCD TO CLIMB INTO MID-UPR 50S AS FILTERED SUNSHINE
XPCD IN WARM SECTOR OWING TO SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PCPN. KRAMAR

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BRIEF MORNING LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY MORNING WILL
QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY MORE INSTABILITY AND WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY BY AFTERNOON AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVES DOWN
THE BACK SIDE AND INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGER WAVE RESIDENT TROUGH
OVER THE REGION. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES FALL FAIRLY WELL BY
AFTERNOON...IN FACT EVEN ENOUGH THAT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY CAN
BE NOTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. WHILE VERY SKINNY CAPE DOES MANAGE TO
WORK ITS WAY UP ABOVE THE -20C LEVEL...TOTAL CAPE VALUES OF
ROUGHLY 100 J/KG AND MINIMAL SHEAR MAKE ADDING THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE FORECAST SEEM LIKE OVERKILL. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
THERE MAY BE A ONE STRIKE WONDER AROUND.

UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW THEN CONTINUES AS THE UPPER LOW CLOSES
OFF...CUTS OFF...AND SLOWLY...BEGRUDINGLY...MEANDERS EASTWARD FROM
THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS ALLOWS FOR A PAINSTAKINGLY SLOW
WIND DOWN IN POPS AND AN EVEN SLOWER CLEAR OUT OF THE SKIES GOING
TOWARD THE LONGER TERM. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SYSTEM FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A
PERIOD OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR INTO MONDAY AS ONLY CIRRUS ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING MID DECK NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST MONDAY WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTS
LATE DAY.

.AVIATION /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS EAST OF THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ012-021-022.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 192109
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
509 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WITH 5PM UPDATE...MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO SKY...WIND...AND
TEMPERATURES TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

MID- AND UPR-LVL CLDS WILL INCR AHEAD OF APRCHG SHRTWV TROF THAT
WILL DIG INTO GRTLKS TNGT. WIND ALREADY HAS BCM LGT AND WILL BACK
TO SWLY IN RESPONSE TO APRCHG TROF. WITH LGT WIND...COOL TEMPS AND
LMTD THICKNESS TO CI IMPINGING ON SRN ZONES...FROST WILL BE PSBL
IN FAR SRN ZONES... WHERE CLD CVR WILL BE SLOWEST TO ARRIVE. FROST
ADZY WAS ISSUED FOR MARION/MONONGALIA/WETZEL CTYS FOR LATE TNGT.
ELSEWHERE...GROWING SEASON IS OVER OR MINIMA WILL RMN TOO ELEVATED
FOR FROST.

PREV SHIFT TRENDED SLOWER WITH PCPN ONSET ON MON...WHICH SEEMS
LIKE A GOOD CHOICE. THIS TREND WAS CONTD TDA...WITH PCPN ONLY XPCD
TO REACH NWRN ZONES BY LATE MON AFTN. TROF AXIS WILL CROSS MON
NGT...AND PCPN WILL SHIFT EWD THRU EARLY TUE MRNG. BY END OF MON
NGT PD...PCPN SHOULD BE MAINLY FOCUSED IN FAR ERN ZONES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH UPR TROF AND ALONG LAKESHORES AS NWLY FLOW BEHIND
CDFNT INCRS CVRG OF LAKE-ENHANCED SHWRS. PRIMARY ADJUSTMENT THESE
PDS WAS TO INCR POPS TO CATEGORICAL MON NGT AND INTRODUCE SHARPER
PCPN GRADIENT BY TUE MRNG.

TEMPS ON MON XPCD TO CLIMB INTO MID-UPR 50S AS FILTERED SUNSHINE
XPCD IN WARM SECTOR OWING TO SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PCPN. KRAMAR

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BRIEF MORNING LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY MORNING WILL
QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY MORE INSTABILITY AND WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY BY AFTERNOON AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVES DOWN
THE BACK SIDE AND INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGER WAVE RESIDENT TROUGH
OVER THE REGION. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES FALL FAIRLY WELL BY
AFTERNOON...IN FACT EVEN ENOUGH THAT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY CAN
BE NOTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. WHILE VERY SKINNY CAPE DOES MANAGE TO
WORK ITS WAY UP ABOVE THE -20C LEVEL...TOTAL CAPE VALUES OF
ROUGHLY 100 J/KG AND MINIMAL SHEAR MAKE ADDING THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE FORECAST SEEM LIKE OVERKILL. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
THERE MAY BE A ONE STRIKE WONDER AROUND.

UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW THEN CONTINUES AS THE UPPER LOW CLOSES
OFF...CUTS OFF...AND SLOWLY...BEGRUDINGLY...MEANDERS EASTWARD FROM
THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS ALLOWS FOR A PAINSTAKINGLY SLOW
WIND DOWN IN POPS AND AN EVEN SLOWER CLEAR OUT OF THE SKIES GOING
TOWARD THE LONGER TERM. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SYSTEM FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A
PERIOD OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS XPCD THRU LATE TNGT AS INVERSION HEIGHT LWRS AND AIDS IN
DISSIPATION OF STRATOCU DECK AT 3-4KFT. CIGS 3-4KFT XPCD TO DVLP
AGAIN MON MRNG AS SHRTWV TROF DIGS INTO GRTLKS RGN AND HEIGHTS
FALL. RAIN SHWRS XPCD TO IMPACT ALL TERMINALS AS THEY MOVE INTO
THE RGN FROM THE NW...AT KFKL BY LATE MON AFTN AND ACRS RMNDR OF
TERMINALS MON NGT. PCPN SHOULD BGN TO CLR BY EARLY TUE MRNG. VSBY
RESTRICTIONS TO AT LEAST MVFR /IF NOT IFR/ CAN BE ANTICIPATED IN
PCPN.

.AVIATION /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS XPCD THRU MID-WEEK AS UPR TROFG CONTS TO
IMPACT THE UPR OH RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ012-021-022.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 192109
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
509 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WITH 5PM UPDATE...MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO SKY...WIND...AND
TEMPERATURES TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

MID- AND UPR-LVL CLDS WILL INCR AHEAD OF APRCHG SHRTWV TROF THAT
WILL DIG INTO GRTLKS TNGT. WIND ALREADY HAS BCM LGT AND WILL BACK
TO SWLY IN RESPONSE TO APRCHG TROF. WITH LGT WIND...COOL TEMPS AND
LMTD THICKNESS TO CI IMPINGING ON SRN ZONES...FROST WILL BE PSBL
IN FAR SRN ZONES... WHERE CLD CVR WILL BE SLOWEST TO ARRIVE. FROST
ADZY WAS ISSUED FOR MARION/MONONGALIA/WETZEL CTYS FOR LATE TNGT.
ELSEWHERE...GROWING SEASON IS OVER OR MINIMA WILL RMN TOO ELEVATED
FOR FROST.

PREV SHIFT TRENDED SLOWER WITH PCPN ONSET ON MON...WHICH SEEMS
LIKE A GOOD CHOICE. THIS TREND WAS CONTD TDA...WITH PCPN ONLY XPCD
TO REACH NWRN ZONES BY LATE MON AFTN. TROF AXIS WILL CROSS MON
NGT...AND PCPN WILL SHIFT EWD THRU EARLY TUE MRNG. BY END OF MON
NGT PD...PCPN SHOULD BE MAINLY FOCUSED IN FAR ERN ZONES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH UPR TROF AND ALONG LAKESHORES AS NWLY FLOW BEHIND
CDFNT INCRS CVRG OF LAKE-ENHANCED SHWRS. PRIMARY ADJUSTMENT THESE
PDS WAS TO INCR POPS TO CATEGORICAL MON NGT AND INTRODUCE SHARPER
PCPN GRADIENT BY TUE MRNG.

TEMPS ON MON XPCD TO CLIMB INTO MID-UPR 50S AS FILTERED SUNSHINE
XPCD IN WARM SECTOR OWING TO SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PCPN. KRAMAR

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BRIEF MORNING LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY MORNING WILL
QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY MORE INSTABILITY AND WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY BY AFTERNOON AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVES DOWN
THE BACK SIDE AND INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGER WAVE RESIDENT TROUGH
OVER THE REGION. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES FALL FAIRLY WELL BY
AFTERNOON...IN FACT EVEN ENOUGH THAT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY CAN
BE NOTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. WHILE VERY SKINNY CAPE DOES MANAGE TO
WORK ITS WAY UP ABOVE THE -20C LEVEL...TOTAL CAPE VALUES OF
ROUGHLY 100 J/KG AND MINIMAL SHEAR MAKE ADDING THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE FORECAST SEEM LIKE OVERKILL. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
THERE MAY BE A ONE STRIKE WONDER AROUND.

UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW THEN CONTINUES AS THE UPPER LOW CLOSES
OFF...CUTS OFF...AND SLOWLY...BEGRUDINGLY...MEANDERS EASTWARD FROM
THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS ALLOWS FOR A PAINSTAKINGLY SLOW
WIND DOWN IN POPS AND AN EVEN SLOWER CLEAR OUT OF THE SKIES GOING
TOWARD THE LONGER TERM. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SYSTEM FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A
PERIOD OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS XPCD THRU LATE TNGT AS INVERSION HEIGHT LWRS AND AIDS IN
DISSIPATION OF STRATOCU DECK AT 3-4KFT. CIGS 3-4KFT XPCD TO DVLP
AGAIN MON MRNG AS SHRTWV TROF DIGS INTO GRTLKS RGN AND HEIGHTS
FALL. RAIN SHWRS XPCD TO IMPACT ALL TERMINALS AS THEY MOVE INTO
THE RGN FROM THE NW...AT KFKL BY LATE MON AFTN AND ACRS RMNDR OF
TERMINALS MON NGT. PCPN SHOULD BGN TO CLR BY EARLY TUE MRNG. VSBY
RESTRICTIONS TO AT LEAST MVFR /IF NOT IFR/ CAN BE ANTICIPATED IN
PCPN.

.AVIATION /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS XPCD THRU MID-WEEK AS UPR TROFG CONTS TO
IMPACT THE UPR OH RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ012-021-022.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPHI 192012 CCA
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
408 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT. ON MONDAY A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REACHING OUR REGION DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE CAROLINA
COASTLINE ON TUESDAY AS WELL. THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER AND MERGE JUST OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEPART THE REGION BY FRIDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY LATER THIS
EVENING AS WE LOSE ANY SURFACE HEATING AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM WINDS
EXPECTED. DEWPOINTS WILL HOVER IN THE UPPER-20S TO LOW-30S MOST OF
THE NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AS WELL UNDER THE GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS.

THE FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORY LOCATIONS AND TIMING REMAINS
UNCHANGED. THE BIGGEST FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE HOW FAST
TEMPERATURES DROP WITH THE DECOUPLING BEFORE SOME JET CIRRUS ADVECTS
IN FROM THE WEST. LOOKING UPSTREAM AT THE CIRRUS IT DOES NOT APPEAR
TO VERY THICK AND THE MODEL RH VALUES FROM 1000 TO 500MB ARE RATHER
VANILLA SO WE SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO COOL A BIT OR LEVEL OFF ONCE
THE CLOUDS ROLL IN.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WERE A BLEND OF THE MET/MAVMOS WITH A HEAVIER
WEIGHTING ON THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MET. THE NAM OVERALL APPEARED TO
INITIALIZE BETTER THAN THE GFS UPSTREAM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE OTHER THAN WE SHOULD
BE ABLE TO TACK ON A FEW DEGREES TO DAYTIME HIGHS. WINDS BACK
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY LATE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN TO CREEP UP THOUGH
NOT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR COLUMN SATURATION. WE KEEP MONDAY DRY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE RIPPLING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS AND WAA BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM. ENOUGH LIFT SHOULD BE PRESENT TO GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE TUESDAY
WITH QPF UNDER 1/10TH OF AN INCH. MAV AND MET GUIDANCE SETS USED FOR
MOST WEATHER ELEMENTS IN THIS PERIOD.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND BE SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD. THE END RESULT WILL BE GRAY GLOOMY COOLER DAYS FEATURING
RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. THE FORMATION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL START
WITH TWO PIECES, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND COLD FRONT DIVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND A LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF
THE CAROLINA`S. THE UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS ON TUESDAY TO THE REGION WITH A MOISTURE
PLUME FROM THE CAROLINA LOW WELL OFFSHORE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT WE BEGIN
TO SEE MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE FEATURES, PHASING. A PHASED LOW
FORMS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE
MAJORITY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE BROUGHT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TO
COMPARE OUR REGION WOULD BE FAVORED FOR JUST SOME WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS.

OVERALL THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER CONSENSUS TODAY
THAT THE ABOVE OUTCOME WILL OCCUR. THIS IS REFLECTED IN BOTH THE 00Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN COMPARED TO THE OPERATIONAL RUN AND THE 06Z
GEFS. WITH THAT BEING SAID, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT
THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LASTING
THROUGH THURSDAY. AREAS FURTHER NORTHEAST CLOSER TO THE LOW
STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE THE MOST IN TERMS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.
TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THE SHOWERS ARE STILL PRESENT LEAVING SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH POPS, KEPT AT HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END LIKELY.
TOTAL RAINFALL WILL BE UNDER ONE INCH FOR THIS EVENT. THE 12Z
ECMWF AND NAM FROM TODAY DO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY BEGINS TO TRANSFER TO THE COAST, THIS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS NEW DATA COMES IN. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS, LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP AT NIGHT CLOSE TO 50 FOR MOST OF US
WHILE HIGHS STRUGGLE TOWARD 60, COOLER NW. NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE
MODELS AND THERE ENSEMBLES/ STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES,
WENT ON THE WARMER END EACH NIGHT AND THE COOLER END DURING EACH
DAY. IN TERMS OF TIDES IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE WIND DIRECTION WILL
NOT CREATE DEPARTURES HIGH ENOUGH FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OR
CREATE LOW ENOUGH DEPARTURES FOR BLOWOUT TIDES ATTM.


FRIDAY: LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK IN. THIS ALLOWS FOR CLEARING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND
THE FIRST DRY DAY IN A WHILE. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO BE
CLOSER TO MEX GUIDANCE AND THE 12Z ECMWF MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
MIXING TO LEAD TO SOME AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: DURING D+6 AND D+7, THE NEGATIVE
NAO/POSITIVE PNA PATTERN OF THE PAST TWO WEEKS IS PROJECTED TO
REVERSE. THIS TREND IS UNDERWAY, AND IS EVIDENT IN LESS HIGH-
LATITUDE BLOCKING. THE MAIN MID-LEVEL FEATURES IN THIS TIMEFRAME
ARE A CLOSED LOW LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH A MORE ZONAL FLOW ON
SUNDAY. THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THESE FEATURES, AS THE
GFS EJECTS THE CLOSED LOW SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF, RESULTING IN A
DELAYED RETURN TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW. THIS FURTHER RESULTS IN THE
GFS MOVING THE SHORTWAVE FURTHER NORTHEAST, WHILE THE ECMWF TAKES
IT MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. SOME OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO SUPPORT THE ECMWF SOLUTION. GIVEN THE GFS
INITIALIZED MORE ROBUST WITH THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE /LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AS OF THIS WRITING/ THAT RESULTS IN THE CUT-
OFF LOW, AND PREVIOUS GFS RUNS WERE MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF,
FEEL THE GFS SOLUTION IS UNREALISTIC. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS ALSO
MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE PROJECTED LACK OF HIGH-LATITUDE
BLOCKING.

OR SATURDAY, SHORT-WAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST, WITH TEMPS AT 850 HPA SUPPORTING HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT SEASONABLE LEVELS. A COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME IN THE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY
TIMEFRAME. AT THIS TIME, THE ECMWF INDICATES THE BEST DYNAMICS
SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND LIMITED MOISTURE, BUT IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO
SPECULATE ON PRECIP CHANCES. IF THE TIMING OF THE FRONT HOLDS,
PROJECTED 850 HPA TEMPS WOULD SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR. WE LOSE THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BY THIS EVENING AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED.

MONDAY...VFR. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS. INCREASING CIRRUS BECOMING ALTOCU BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THINK ANY RAIN CHANCES HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SOME RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FROM 15-20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT...SCA GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH ON THE BAY BY THIS EVENING SO WE
CONTINUE THE END TIME OF 8PM. THE OCEAN FRONT TOO REMAINS UNCHANGED
FROM THE MIDNIGHT END TIME. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN WILL ALLOW THE
WIND AND SEAS TO RELAX LATE TONIGHT.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS REMAIN 2 TO 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BUT INCREASING WEDNESDAY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: OVERALL THINKING IS THAT WAVEWATCH
IS UNDERDONE BY ABOUT A FOOT ON THE SEAS. SEAS WILL LIKELY BE AT OR
OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH SOME DECREASE IN THE
SEAS FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON. SCA POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ054-055-061-
     062.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ060-101>106.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ020>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>019-023.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GAINES
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...FRANCK/GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER
MARINE...GAINES/HEAVENER








000
FXUS61 KPHI 192012 CCA
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
408 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT. ON MONDAY A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REACHING OUR REGION DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE CAROLINA
COASTLINE ON TUESDAY AS WELL. THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER AND MERGE JUST OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEPART THE REGION BY FRIDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY LATER THIS
EVENING AS WE LOSE ANY SURFACE HEATING AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM WINDS
EXPECTED. DEWPOINTS WILL HOVER IN THE UPPER-20S TO LOW-30S MOST OF
THE NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AS WELL UNDER THE GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS.

THE FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORY LOCATIONS AND TIMING REMAINS
UNCHANGED. THE BIGGEST FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE HOW FAST
TEMPERATURES DROP WITH THE DECOUPLING BEFORE SOME JET CIRRUS ADVECTS
IN FROM THE WEST. LOOKING UPSTREAM AT THE CIRRUS IT DOES NOT APPEAR
TO VERY THICK AND THE MODEL RH VALUES FROM 1000 TO 500MB ARE RATHER
VANILLA SO WE SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO COOL A BIT OR LEVEL OFF ONCE
THE CLOUDS ROLL IN.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WERE A BLEND OF THE MET/MAVMOS WITH A HEAVIER
WEIGHTING ON THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MET. THE NAM OVERALL APPEARED TO
INITIALIZE BETTER THAN THE GFS UPSTREAM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE OTHER THAN WE SHOULD
BE ABLE TO TACK ON A FEW DEGREES TO DAYTIME HIGHS. WINDS BACK
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY LATE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN TO CREEP UP THOUGH
NOT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR COLUMN SATURATION. WE KEEP MONDAY DRY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE RIPPLING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS AND WAA BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM. ENOUGH LIFT SHOULD BE PRESENT TO GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE TUESDAY
WITH QPF UNDER 1/10TH OF AN INCH. MAV AND MET GUIDANCE SETS USED FOR
MOST WEATHER ELEMENTS IN THIS PERIOD.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND BE SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD. THE END RESULT WILL BE GRAY GLOOMY COOLER DAYS FEATURING
RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. THE FORMATION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL START
WITH TWO PIECES, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND COLD FRONT DIVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND A LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF
THE CAROLINA`S. THE UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS ON TUESDAY TO THE REGION WITH A MOISTURE
PLUME FROM THE CAROLINA LOW WELL OFFSHORE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT WE BEGIN
TO SEE MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE FEATURES, PHASING. A PHASED LOW
FORMS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE
MAJORITY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE BROUGHT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TO
COMPARE OUR REGION WOULD BE FAVORED FOR JUST SOME WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS.

OVERALL THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER CONSENSUS TODAY
THAT THE ABOVE OUTCOME WILL OCCUR. THIS IS REFLECTED IN BOTH THE 00Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN COMPARED TO THE OPERATIONAL RUN AND THE 06Z
GEFS. WITH THAT BEING SAID, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT
THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LASTING
THROUGH THURSDAY. AREAS FURTHER NORTHEAST CLOSER TO THE LOW
STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE THE MOST IN TERMS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.
TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THE SHOWERS ARE STILL PRESENT LEAVING SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH POPS, KEPT AT HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END LIKELY.
TOTAL RAINFALL WILL BE UNDER ONE INCH FOR THIS EVENT. THE 12Z
ECMWF AND NAM FROM TODAY DO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY BEGINS TO TRANSFER TO THE COAST, THIS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS NEW DATA COMES IN. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS, LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP AT NIGHT CLOSE TO 50 FOR MOST OF US
WHILE HIGHS STRUGGLE TOWARD 60, COOLER NW. NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE
MODELS AND THERE ENSEMBLES/ STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES,
WENT ON THE WARMER END EACH NIGHT AND THE COOLER END DURING EACH
DAY. IN TERMS OF TIDES IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE WIND DIRECTION WILL
NOT CREATE DEPARTURES HIGH ENOUGH FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OR
CREATE LOW ENOUGH DEPARTURES FOR BLOWOUT TIDES ATTM.


FRIDAY: LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK IN. THIS ALLOWS FOR CLEARING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND
THE FIRST DRY DAY IN A WHILE. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO BE
CLOSER TO MEX GUIDANCE AND THE 12Z ECMWF MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
MIXING TO LEAD TO SOME AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: DURING D+6 AND D+7, THE NEGATIVE
NAO/POSITIVE PNA PATTERN OF THE PAST TWO WEEKS IS PROJECTED TO
REVERSE. THIS TREND IS UNDERWAY, AND IS EVIDENT IN LESS HIGH-
LATITUDE BLOCKING. THE MAIN MID-LEVEL FEATURES IN THIS TIMEFRAME
ARE A CLOSED LOW LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH A MORE ZONAL FLOW ON
SUNDAY. THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THESE FEATURES, AS THE
GFS EJECTS THE CLOSED LOW SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF, RESULTING IN A
DELAYED RETURN TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW. THIS FURTHER RESULTS IN THE
GFS MOVING THE SHORTWAVE FURTHER NORTHEAST, WHILE THE ECMWF TAKES
IT MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. SOME OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO SUPPORT THE ECMWF SOLUTION. GIVEN THE GFS
INITIALIZED MORE ROBUST WITH THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE /LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AS OF THIS WRITING/ THAT RESULTS IN THE CUT-
OFF LOW, AND PREVIOUS GFS RUNS WERE MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF,
FEEL THE GFS SOLUTION IS UNREALISTIC. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS ALSO
MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE PROJECTED LACK OF HIGH-LATITUDE
BLOCKING.

OR SATURDAY, SHORT-WAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST, WITH TEMPS AT 850 HPA SUPPORTING HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT SEASONABLE LEVELS. A COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME IN THE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY
TIMEFRAME. AT THIS TIME, THE ECMWF INDICATES THE BEST DYNAMICS
SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND LIMITED MOISTURE, BUT IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO
SPECULATE ON PRECIP CHANCES. IF THE TIMING OF THE FRONT HOLDS,
PROJECTED 850 HPA TEMPS WOULD SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR. WE LOSE THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BY THIS EVENING AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED.

MONDAY...VFR. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS. INCREASING CIRRUS BECOMING ALTOCU BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THINK ANY RAIN CHANCES HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SOME RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FROM 15-20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT...SCA GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH ON THE BAY BY THIS EVENING SO WE
CONTINUE THE END TIME OF 8PM. THE OCEAN FRONT TOO REMAINS UNCHANGED
FROM THE MIDNIGHT END TIME. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN WILL ALLOW THE
WIND AND SEAS TO RELAX LATE TONIGHT.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS REMAIN 2 TO 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BUT INCREASING WEDNESDAY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: OVERALL THINKING IS THAT WAVEWATCH
IS UNDERDONE BY ABOUT A FOOT ON THE SEAS. SEAS WILL LIKELY BE AT OR
OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH SOME DECREASE IN THE
SEAS FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON. SCA POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ054-055-061-
     062.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ060-101>106.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ020>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>019-023.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GAINES
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...FRANCK/GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER
MARINE...GAINES/HEAVENER








000
FXUS61 KPHI 192012 CCA
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
408 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT. ON MONDAY A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REACHING OUR REGION DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE CAROLINA
COASTLINE ON TUESDAY AS WELL. THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER AND MERGE JUST OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEPART THE REGION BY FRIDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY LATER THIS
EVENING AS WE LOSE ANY SURFACE HEATING AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM WINDS
EXPECTED. DEWPOINTS WILL HOVER IN THE UPPER-20S TO LOW-30S MOST OF
THE NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AS WELL UNDER THE GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS.

THE FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORY LOCATIONS AND TIMING REMAINS
UNCHANGED. THE BIGGEST FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE HOW FAST
TEMPERATURES DROP WITH THE DECOUPLING BEFORE SOME JET CIRRUS ADVECTS
IN FROM THE WEST. LOOKING UPSTREAM AT THE CIRRUS IT DOES NOT APPEAR
TO VERY THICK AND THE MODEL RH VALUES FROM 1000 TO 500MB ARE RATHER
VANILLA SO WE SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO COOL A BIT OR LEVEL OFF ONCE
THE CLOUDS ROLL IN.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WERE A BLEND OF THE MET/MAVMOS WITH A HEAVIER
WEIGHTING ON THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MET. THE NAM OVERALL APPEARED TO
INITIALIZE BETTER THAN THE GFS UPSTREAM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE OTHER THAN WE SHOULD
BE ABLE TO TACK ON A FEW DEGREES TO DAYTIME HIGHS. WINDS BACK
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY LATE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN TO CREEP UP THOUGH
NOT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR COLUMN SATURATION. WE KEEP MONDAY DRY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE RIPPLING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS AND WAA BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM. ENOUGH LIFT SHOULD BE PRESENT TO GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE TUESDAY
WITH QPF UNDER 1/10TH OF AN INCH. MAV AND MET GUIDANCE SETS USED FOR
MOST WEATHER ELEMENTS IN THIS PERIOD.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND BE SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD. THE END RESULT WILL BE GRAY GLOOMY COOLER DAYS FEATURING
RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. THE FORMATION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL START
WITH TWO PIECES, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND COLD FRONT DIVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND A LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF
THE CAROLINA`S. THE UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS ON TUESDAY TO THE REGION WITH A MOISTURE
PLUME FROM THE CAROLINA LOW WELL OFFSHORE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT WE BEGIN
TO SEE MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE FEATURES, PHASING. A PHASED LOW
FORMS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE
MAJORITY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE BROUGHT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TO
COMPARE OUR REGION WOULD BE FAVORED FOR JUST SOME WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS.

OVERALL THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER CONSENSUS TODAY
THAT THE ABOVE OUTCOME WILL OCCUR. THIS IS REFLECTED IN BOTH THE 00Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN COMPARED TO THE OPERATIONAL RUN AND THE 06Z
GEFS. WITH THAT BEING SAID, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT
THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LASTING
THROUGH THURSDAY. AREAS FURTHER NORTHEAST CLOSER TO THE LOW
STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE THE MOST IN TERMS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.
TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THE SHOWERS ARE STILL PRESENT LEAVING SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH POPS, KEPT AT HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END LIKELY.
TOTAL RAINFALL WILL BE UNDER ONE INCH FOR THIS EVENT. THE 12Z
ECMWF AND NAM FROM TODAY DO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY BEGINS TO TRANSFER TO THE COAST, THIS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS NEW DATA COMES IN. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS, LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP AT NIGHT CLOSE TO 50 FOR MOST OF US
WHILE HIGHS STRUGGLE TOWARD 60, COOLER NW. NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE
MODELS AND THERE ENSEMBLES/ STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES,
WENT ON THE WARMER END EACH NIGHT AND THE COOLER END DURING EACH
DAY. IN TERMS OF TIDES IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE WIND DIRECTION WILL
NOT CREATE DEPARTURES HIGH ENOUGH FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OR
CREATE LOW ENOUGH DEPARTURES FOR BLOWOUT TIDES ATTM.


FRIDAY: LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK IN. THIS ALLOWS FOR CLEARING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND
THE FIRST DRY DAY IN A WHILE. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO BE
CLOSER TO MEX GUIDANCE AND THE 12Z ECMWF MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
MIXING TO LEAD TO SOME AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: DURING D+6 AND D+7, THE NEGATIVE
NAO/POSITIVE PNA PATTERN OF THE PAST TWO WEEKS IS PROJECTED TO
REVERSE. THIS TREND IS UNDERWAY, AND IS EVIDENT IN LESS HIGH-
LATITUDE BLOCKING. THE MAIN MID-LEVEL FEATURES IN THIS TIMEFRAME
ARE A CLOSED LOW LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH A MORE ZONAL FLOW ON
SUNDAY. THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THESE FEATURES, AS THE
GFS EJECTS THE CLOSED LOW SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF, RESULTING IN A
DELAYED RETURN TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW. THIS FURTHER RESULTS IN THE
GFS MOVING THE SHORTWAVE FURTHER NORTHEAST, WHILE THE ECMWF TAKES
IT MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. SOME OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO SUPPORT THE ECMWF SOLUTION. GIVEN THE GFS
INITIALIZED MORE ROBUST WITH THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE /LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AS OF THIS WRITING/ THAT RESULTS IN THE CUT-
OFF LOW, AND PREVIOUS GFS RUNS WERE MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF,
FEEL THE GFS SOLUTION IS UNREALISTIC. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS ALSO
MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE PROJECTED LACK OF HIGH-LATITUDE
BLOCKING.

OR SATURDAY, SHORT-WAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST, WITH TEMPS AT 850 HPA SUPPORTING HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT SEASONABLE LEVELS. A COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME IN THE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY
TIMEFRAME. AT THIS TIME, THE ECMWF INDICATES THE BEST DYNAMICS
SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND LIMITED MOISTURE, BUT IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO
SPECULATE ON PRECIP CHANCES. IF THE TIMING OF THE FRONT HOLDS,
PROJECTED 850 HPA TEMPS WOULD SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR. WE LOSE THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BY THIS EVENING AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED.

MONDAY...VFR. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS. INCREASING CIRRUS BECOMING ALTOCU BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THINK ANY RAIN CHANCES HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SOME RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FROM 15-20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT...SCA GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH ON THE BAY BY THIS EVENING SO WE
CONTINUE THE END TIME OF 8PM. THE OCEAN FRONT TOO REMAINS UNCHANGED
FROM THE MIDNIGHT END TIME. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN WILL ALLOW THE
WIND AND SEAS TO RELAX LATE TONIGHT.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS REMAIN 2 TO 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BUT INCREASING WEDNESDAY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: OVERALL THINKING IS THAT WAVEWATCH
IS UNDERDONE BY ABOUT A FOOT ON THE SEAS. SEAS WILL LIKELY BE AT OR
OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH SOME DECREASE IN THE
SEAS FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON. SCA POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ054-055-061-
     062.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ060-101>106.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ020>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>019-023.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GAINES
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...FRANCK/GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER
MARINE...GAINES/HEAVENER








000
FXUS61 KPHI 192012 CCA
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
408 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT. ON MONDAY A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REACHING OUR REGION DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE CAROLINA
COASTLINE ON TUESDAY AS WELL. THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER AND MERGE JUST OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEPART THE REGION BY FRIDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY LATER THIS
EVENING AS WE LOSE ANY SURFACE HEATING AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM WINDS
EXPECTED. DEWPOINTS WILL HOVER IN THE UPPER-20S TO LOW-30S MOST OF
THE NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AS WELL UNDER THE GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS.

THE FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORY LOCATIONS AND TIMING REMAINS
UNCHANGED. THE BIGGEST FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE HOW FAST
TEMPERATURES DROP WITH THE DECOUPLING BEFORE SOME JET CIRRUS ADVECTS
IN FROM THE WEST. LOOKING UPSTREAM AT THE CIRRUS IT DOES NOT APPEAR
TO VERY THICK AND THE MODEL RH VALUES FROM 1000 TO 500MB ARE RATHER
VANILLA SO WE SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO COOL A BIT OR LEVEL OFF ONCE
THE CLOUDS ROLL IN.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WERE A BLEND OF THE MET/MAVMOS WITH A HEAVIER
WEIGHTING ON THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MET. THE NAM OVERALL APPEARED TO
INITIALIZE BETTER THAN THE GFS UPSTREAM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE OTHER THAN WE SHOULD
BE ABLE TO TACK ON A FEW DEGREES TO DAYTIME HIGHS. WINDS BACK
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY LATE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN TO CREEP UP THOUGH
NOT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR COLUMN SATURATION. WE KEEP MONDAY DRY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE RIPPLING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS AND WAA BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM. ENOUGH LIFT SHOULD BE PRESENT TO GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE TUESDAY
WITH QPF UNDER 1/10TH OF AN INCH. MAV AND MET GUIDANCE SETS USED FOR
MOST WEATHER ELEMENTS IN THIS PERIOD.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND BE SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD. THE END RESULT WILL BE GRAY GLOOMY COOLER DAYS FEATURING
RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. THE FORMATION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL START
WITH TWO PIECES, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND COLD FRONT DIVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND A LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF
THE CAROLINA`S. THE UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS ON TUESDAY TO THE REGION WITH A MOISTURE
PLUME FROM THE CAROLINA LOW WELL OFFSHORE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT WE BEGIN
TO SEE MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE FEATURES, PHASING. A PHASED LOW
FORMS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE
MAJORITY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE BROUGHT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TO
COMPARE OUR REGION WOULD BE FAVORED FOR JUST SOME WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS.

OVERALL THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER CONSENSUS TODAY
THAT THE ABOVE OUTCOME WILL OCCUR. THIS IS REFLECTED IN BOTH THE 00Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN COMPARED TO THE OPERATIONAL RUN AND THE 06Z
GEFS. WITH THAT BEING SAID, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT
THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LASTING
THROUGH THURSDAY. AREAS FURTHER NORTHEAST CLOSER TO THE LOW
STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE THE MOST IN TERMS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.
TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THE SHOWERS ARE STILL PRESENT LEAVING SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH POPS, KEPT AT HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END LIKELY.
TOTAL RAINFALL WILL BE UNDER ONE INCH FOR THIS EVENT. THE 12Z
ECMWF AND NAM FROM TODAY DO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY BEGINS TO TRANSFER TO THE COAST, THIS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS NEW DATA COMES IN. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS, LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP AT NIGHT CLOSE TO 50 FOR MOST OF US
WHILE HIGHS STRUGGLE TOWARD 60, COOLER NW. NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE
MODELS AND THERE ENSEMBLES/ STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES,
WENT ON THE WARMER END EACH NIGHT AND THE COOLER END DURING EACH
DAY. IN TERMS OF TIDES IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE WIND DIRECTION WILL
NOT CREATE DEPARTURES HIGH ENOUGH FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OR
CREATE LOW ENOUGH DEPARTURES FOR BLOWOUT TIDES ATTM.


FRIDAY: LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK IN. THIS ALLOWS FOR CLEARING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND
THE FIRST DRY DAY IN A WHILE. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO BE
CLOSER TO MEX GUIDANCE AND THE 12Z ECMWF MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
MIXING TO LEAD TO SOME AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: DURING D+6 AND D+7, THE NEGATIVE
NAO/POSITIVE PNA PATTERN OF THE PAST TWO WEEKS IS PROJECTED TO
REVERSE. THIS TREND IS UNDERWAY, AND IS EVIDENT IN LESS HIGH-
LATITUDE BLOCKING. THE MAIN MID-LEVEL FEATURES IN THIS TIMEFRAME
ARE A CLOSED LOW LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH A MORE ZONAL FLOW ON
SUNDAY. THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THESE FEATURES, AS THE
GFS EJECTS THE CLOSED LOW SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF, RESULTING IN A
DELAYED RETURN TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW. THIS FURTHER RESULTS IN THE
GFS MOVING THE SHORTWAVE FURTHER NORTHEAST, WHILE THE ECMWF TAKES
IT MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. SOME OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO SUPPORT THE ECMWF SOLUTION. GIVEN THE GFS
INITIALIZED MORE ROBUST WITH THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE /LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AS OF THIS WRITING/ THAT RESULTS IN THE CUT-
OFF LOW, AND PREVIOUS GFS RUNS WERE MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF,
FEEL THE GFS SOLUTION IS UNREALISTIC. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS ALSO
MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE PROJECTED LACK OF HIGH-LATITUDE
BLOCKING.

OR SATURDAY, SHORT-WAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST, WITH TEMPS AT 850 HPA SUPPORTING HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT SEASONABLE LEVELS. A COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME IN THE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY
TIMEFRAME. AT THIS TIME, THE ECMWF INDICATES THE BEST DYNAMICS
SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND LIMITED MOISTURE, BUT IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO
SPECULATE ON PRECIP CHANCES. IF THE TIMING OF THE FRONT HOLDS,
PROJECTED 850 HPA TEMPS WOULD SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR. WE LOSE THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BY THIS EVENING AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED.

MONDAY...VFR. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS. INCREASING CIRRUS BECOMING ALTOCU BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THINK ANY RAIN CHANCES HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SOME RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FROM 15-20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT...SCA GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH ON THE BAY BY THIS EVENING SO WE
CONTINUE THE END TIME OF 8PM. THE OCEAN FRONT TOO REMAINS UNCHANGED
FROM THE MIDNIGHT END TIME. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN WILL ALLOW THE
WIND AND SEAS TO RELAX LATE TONIGHT.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS REMAIN 2 TO 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BUT INCREASING WEDNESDAY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: OVERALL THINKING IS THAT WAVEWATCH
IS UNDERDONE BY ABOUT A FOOT ON THE SEAS. SEAS WILL LIKELY BE AT OR
OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH SOME DECREASE IN THE
SEAS FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON. SCA POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ054-055-061-
     062.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ060-101>106.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ020>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>019-023.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GAINES
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...FRANCK/GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER
MARINE...GAINES/HEAVENER








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 192008
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
408 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO/TN
VLYS THIS AFTERNOON. W-NW FLOW ALOFT AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE ALLOWING FOR A PLEASANT, ALBEIT COOL FALL AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS
THE REGION.

SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS
EVENING, SETTLING ALONG THE SE COASTAL PLAIN BY LATE TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL DECOUPLE EARLY ON TONIGHT. THIS IN TANDEM WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY WILL BRING EXCEPTIONAL RADIATING CONDITIONS WHICH WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP TO AROUND 40 DEGREES INLAND
(OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS) BY MIDNIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE A BIT LESS
CHILLY THAN 00Z NUMBERS, LIKELY OWING TO WEAK WAA LATE AND EXPECTED
CIRRUS ASSOCIATED W/H3 JET STREAK SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER,
AS PREV SHIFT NOTED, THIN CIRRUS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT COOLING.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND TO MID 40S
OVER THE COAST. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE. NO HEADLINES
PLANNED...BUT WILL CONTINUE HWO MENTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE MONDAY AS SLY RETURN FLOW/WAA
COMMENCES. AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE
REGION TUES AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE AS THE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACH. INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE UPPER
60S.

LOW PRESSURE DROPS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC MON NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AS THE CLIPPER FRONT, WITH
THE ASSOCIATED CLIPPER FRONT CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS EARLY
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE AN INVERTED TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPS
ALONG/JUST OFF THE SE COAST/MID-ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG UPPER VORT
MAX ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING UPPER LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CONUS TUESDAY NIGHT-LATE WED, THUS ENHANCING UVM ALONG
THE FRONT. HOWEVER, AS WE SAW WITH THE LAST SYSTEM YESTERDAY, LLVL
MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH PWATS REMAINING ON THE ORDER OF
0.75-1.00". STILL, MODELS ARE INTENT ON LIGHT QPF THROUGH THE
AFTN/EVE HOURS ON TUESDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH
CLOSEST TO BEST SLUG OF OVERRUNNING MOISTURE. WILL STICK WITH A
CHC POP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE TUE
AFTN...LINGERING INTO TUE NGT OVER THE COASTAL AREAS AS MOISTURE
SHIFTS EAST AND ALONG COASTAL TROUGH. FOR HIGHS, LOOK FOR MAXIMA
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TUES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS TUE NGT IN THE U40S WELL INLAND TO MID 50S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL ZONES.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS
AS THE TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WL THEREFORE KEEP
FORECAST DRY WEST OF I-95 ON WED, WITH LOW CHC POP FARTHER EAST
FOR SOME SCT SHRAS OVER COASTAL AREAS/ERN SHORE. HIGHS WED
REMAIN BELOW CLIMO NUMBERS...GENERALLY IN THE L-M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WED NIGHT THRU
FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS (~30%) ACROSS FAR EASTERN
ZONES WED NIGHT...LOWERING TO SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) OVER THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE ON THURS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COASTAL LOW LATE IN THE COMING WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...PUSHING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION NEXT SUNDAY. DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED.
HIGHS THU 60-65...THEN FRI-SUN IN THE MID/UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE 40S
TO LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OCNL BKN CIGS 4-5 KFT INVOF CST THROUGH ABT 20-22Z/20 ALG W/ GUSTY
NNW WNDS TO 20-25 KT. OTRW VFR THROUGH MON NGT/EARLY TUE. WINDS
BECOME LGT/VRB OR CALM BY MID EVE...RMNS SO INTO EARLY MRNG HRS
MON. SSW WNDS DEVELOP DURG MON...SPEEDS RMNG AOB 15 KT.

NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUE THEN LINGERS
OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WED ALONG WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS. WNDS FROM THE NW ARE
EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESP CLOSER TO THE
CST.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ESE FROM THE OH VALLEY LATE THIS
AFTN/EVE...ALLOWING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO SUBSIDE.
WILL DROP HEADLINES FOR THE RIVERS AT 4 PM...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO
DROP HEADLINES FOR THE BAY/SOUND AT 7 PM...AND BY MIDNIGHT FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS.

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...ALLOWING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...ACCOMPANIED BY
CAA AND MORE SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE NE
OFF THE COAST WED-FRI...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF SCA CONDITIONS. FLOW WOULD AGAIN BE OFFSHORE FROM THE NW SO SEAS
WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT. WAVES REACHING 4 FT ON THE BAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT BREEZY/DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE TODAY. DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 30S THIS AFTERNOON...CREATING
MIN RH VALUES IN THE 30-35% RANGE. THIS IN TANDEM WITH DRYING FUELS
AND N-NW WINDS AROUND 15 MPH GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH MAY INCREASE
THE WILDFIRE DANGER.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...LKB
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 192008
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
408 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO/TN
VLYS THIS AFTERNOON. W-NW FLOW ALOFT AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE ALLOWING FOR A PLEASANT, ALBEIT COOL FALL AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS
THE REGION.

SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS
EVENING, SETTLING ALONG THE SE COASTAL PLAIN BY LATE TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL DECOUPLE EARLY ON TONIGHT. THIS IN TANDEM WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY WILL BRING EXCEPTIONAL RADIATING CONDITIONS WHICH WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP TO AROUND 40 DEGREES INLAND
(OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS) BY MIDNIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE A BIT LESS
CHILLY THAN 00Z NUMBERS, LIKELY OWING TO WEAK WAA LATE AND EXPECTED
CIRRUS ASSOCIATED W/H3 JET STREAK SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER,
AS PREV SHIFT NOTED, THIN CIRRUS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT COOLING.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND TO MID 40S
OVER THE COAST. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE. NO HEADLINES
PLANNED...BUT WILL CONTINUE HWO MENTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE MONDAY AS SLY RETURN FLOW/WAA
COMMENCES. AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE
REGION TUES AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE AS THE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACH. INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE UPPER
60S.

LOW PRESSURE DROPS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC MON NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AS THE CLIPPER FRONT, WITH
THE ASSOCIATED CLIPPER FRONT CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS EARLY
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE AN INVERTED TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPS
ALONG/JUST OFF THE SE COAST/MID-ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG UPPER VORT
MAX ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING UPPER LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CONUS TUESDAY NIGHT-LATE WED, THUS ENHANCING UVM ALONG
THE FRONT. HOWEVER, AS WE SAW WITH THE LAST SYSTEM YESTERDAY, LLVL
MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH PWATS REMAINING ON THE ORDER OF
0.75-1.00". STILL, MODELS ARE INTENT ON LIGHT QPF THROUGH THE
AFTN/EVE HOURS ON TUESDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH
CLOSEST TO BEST SLUG OF OVERRUNNING MOISTURE. WILL STICK WITH A
CHC POP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE TUE
AFTN...LINGERING INTO TUE NGT OVER THE COASTAL AREAS AS MOISTURE
SHIFTS EAST AND ALONG COASTAL TROUGH. FOR HIGHS, LOOK FOR MAXIMA
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TUES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS TUE NGT IN THE U40S WELL INLAND TO MID 50S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL ZONES.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS
AS THE TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WL THEREFORE KEEP
FORECAST DRY WEST OF I-95 ON WED, WITH LOW CHC POP FARTHER EAST
FOR SOME SCT SHRAS OVER COASTAL AREAS/ERN SHORE. HIGHS WED
REMAIN BELOW CLIMO NUMBERS...GENERALLY IN THE L-M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WED NIGHT THRU
FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS (~30%) ACROSS FAR EASTERN
ZONES WED NIGHT...LOWERING TO SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) OVER THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE ON THURS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COASTAL LOW LATE IN THE COMING WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...PUSHING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION NEXT SUNDAY. DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED.
HIGHS THU 60-65...THEN FRI-SUN IN THE MID/UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE 40S
TO LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OCNL BKN CIGS 4-5 KFT INVOF CST THROUGH ABT 20-22Z/20 ALG W/ GUSTY
NNW WNDS TO 20-25 KT. OTRW VFR THROUGH MON NGT/EARLY TUE. WINDS
BECOME LGT/VRB OR CALM BY MID EVE...RMNS SO INTO EARLY MRNG HRS
MON. SSW WNDS DEVELOP DURG MON...SPEEDS RMNG AOB 15 KT.

NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUE THEN LINGERS
OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WED ALONG WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS. WNDS FROM THE NW ARE
EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESP CLOSER TO THE
CST.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ESE FROM THE OH VALLEY LATE THIS
AFTN/EVE...ALLOWING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO SUBSIDE.
WILL DROP HEADLINES FOR THE RIVERS AT 4 PM...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO
DROP HEADLINES FOR THE BAY/SOUND AT 7 PM...AND BY MIDNIGHT FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS.

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...ALLOWING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...ACCOMPANIED BY
CAA AND MORE SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE NE
OFF THE COAST WED-FRI...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF SCA CONDITIONS. FLOW WOULD AGAIN BE OFFSHORE FROM THE NW SO SEAS
WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT. WAVES REACHING 4 FT ON THE BAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT BREEZY/DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE TODAY. DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 30S THIS AFTERNOON...CREATING
MIN RH VALUES IN THE 30-35% RANGE. THIS IN TANDEM WITH DRYING FUELS
AND N-NW WINDS AROUND 15 MPH GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH MAY INCREASE
THE WILDFIRE DANGER.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...LKB
FIRE WEATHER...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 192005
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
405 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TODAY...CENTERING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO/TN
VLYS THIS AFTERNOON. W-NW FLOW ALOFT AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE ALLOWING FOR A PLEASANT, ALBEIT COOL FALL AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS
THE REGION.

SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS
EVENING, SETTLING ALONG THE SE COASTAL PLAIN BY LATE TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL DECOUPLE EARLY ON TONIGHT. THIS IN TANDEM WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY WILL BRING EXCEPTIONAL RADIATING CONDITIONS WHICH WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP TO AROUND 40 DEGREES INLAND
(OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS) BY MIDNIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE A BIT LESS
CHILLY THAN 00Z NUMBERS, LIKELY OWING TO WEAK WAA LATE AND EXPECTED
CIRRUS ASSOCIATED W/H3 JET STREAK SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER,
AS PREV SHIFT NOTED, THIN CIRRUS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT COOLING.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND TO MID 40S
OVER THE COAST. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE. NO HEADLINES
PLANNED...BUT WILL CONTINUE HWO MENTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE MONDAY AS SLY RETURN FLOW/WAA
COMMENCES. AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE
REGION TUES AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE AS THE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACH. INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE UPPER
60S.

LOW PRESSURE DROPS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC MON NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AS THE CLIPPER FRONT, WITH
THE ASSOCIATED CLIPPER FRONT CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS EARLY
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE AN INVERTED TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPS
ALONG/JUST OFF THE SE COAST/MID-ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG UPPER VORT
MAX ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING UPPER LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CONUS TUESDAY NIGHT-LATE WED, THUS ENHANCING UVM ALONG
THE FRONT. HOWEVER, AS WE SAW WITH THE LAST SYSTEM YESTERDAY, LLVL
MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH PWATS REMAINING ON THE ORDER OF
0.75-1.00". STILL, MODELS ARE INTENT ON LIGHT QPF THROUGH THE
AFTN/EVE HOURS ON TUESDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH
CLOSEST TO BEST SLUG OF OVERRUNNING MOISTURE. WILL STICK WITH A
CHC POP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE TUE
AFTN...LINGERING INTO TUE NGT OVER THE COASTAL AREAS AS MOISTURE
SHIFTS EAST AND ALONG COASTAL TROUGH. FOR HIGHS, LOOK FOR MAXIMA
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TUES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS TUE NGT IN THE U40S WELL INLAND TO MID 50S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL ZONES.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS
AS THE TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WL THEREFORE KEEP
FORECAST DRY WEST OF I-95 ON WED, WITH LOW CHC POP FARTHER EAST
FOR SOME SCT SHRAS OVER COASTAL AREAS/ERN SHORE. HIGHS WED
REMAIN BELOW CLIMO NUMBERS...GENERALLY IN THE L-M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WED NIGHT THRU
FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS (~30%) ACROSS FAR EASTERN
ZONES WED NIGHT...LOWERING TO SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) OVER THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE ON THURS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COASTAL LOW LATE IN THE COMING WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...PUSHING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION NEXT SUNDAY. DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED.
HIGHS THU 60-65...THEN FRI-SUN IN THE MID/UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE 40S
TO LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OCNL BKN CIGS 4-5 KFT INVOF CST THROUGH ABT 20-22Z/20 ALG W/ GUSTY
NNW WNDS TO 20-25 KT. OTRW VFR THROUGH MON NGT/EARLY TUE. WINDS
BECOME LGT/VRB OR CALM BY MID EVE...RMNS SO INTO EARLY MRNG HRS
MON. SSW WNDS DEVELOP DURG MON...SPEEDS RMNG AOB 15 KT.

NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUE THEN LINGERS
OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WED ALONG WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS. WNDS FROM THE NW ARE
EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESP CLOSER TO THE
CST.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ESE FROM THE OH VALLEY LATE THIS
AFTN/EVE...ALLOWING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO SUBSIDE.
WILL DROP HEADLINES FOR THE RIVERS AT 4 PM...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO
DROP HEADLINES FOR THE BAY/SOUND AT 7 PM...AND BY MIDNIGHT FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS.

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...ALLOWING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...ACCOMPANIED BY
CAA AND MORE SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE NE
OFF THE COAST WED-FRI...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF SCA CONDITIONS. FLOW WOULD AGAIN BE OFFSHORE FROM THE NW SO SEAS
WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT. WAVES REACHING 4 FT ON THE BAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT BREEZY/DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE TODAY. DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 30S THIS AFTERNOON...CREATING
MIN RH VALUES IN THE 30-35% RANGE. THIS IN TANDEM WITH DRYING FUELS
AND N-NW WINDS AROUND 15 MPH GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH MAY INCREASE
THE WILDFIRE DANGER.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...LKB
FIRE WEATHER...












000
FXUS61 KAKQ 192005
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
405 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TODAY...CENTERING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO/TN
VLYS THIS AFTERNOON. W-NW FLOW ALOFT AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE ALLOWING FOR A PLEASANT, ALBEIT COOL FALL AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS
THE REGION.

SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS
EVENING, SETTLING ALONG THE SE COASTAL PLAIN BY LATE TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL DECOUPLE EARLY ON TONIGHT. THIS IN TANDEM WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY WILL BRING EXCEPTIONAL RADIATING CONDITIONS WHICH WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP TO AROUND 40 DEGREES INLAND
(OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS) BY MIDNIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE A BIT LESS
CHILLY THAN 00Z NUMBERS, LIKELY OWING TO WEAK WAA LATE AND EXPECTED
CIRRUS ASSOCIATED W/H3 JET STREAK SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER,
AS PREV SHIFT NOTED, THIN CIRRUS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT COOLING.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND TO MID 40S
OVER THE COAST. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE. NO HEADLINES
PLANNED...BUT WILL CONTINUE HWO MENTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE MONDAY AS SLY RETURN FLOW/WAA
COMMENCES. AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE
REGION TUES AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE AS THE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACH. INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE UPPER
60S.

LOW PRESSURE DROPS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC MON NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AS THE CLIPPER FRONT, WITH
THE ASSOCIATED CLIPPER FRONT CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS EARLY
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE AN INVERTED TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPS
ALONG/JUST OFF THE SE COAST/MID-ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG UPPER VORT
MAX ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING UPPER LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CONUS TUESDAY NIGHT-LATE WED, THUS ENHANCING UVM ALONG
THE FRONT. HOWEVER, AS WE SAW WITH THE LAST SYSTEM YESTERDAY, LLVL
MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH PWATS REMAINING ON THE ORDER OF
0.75-1.00". STILL, MODELS ARE INTENT ON LIGHT QPF THROUGH THE
AFTN/EVE HOURS ON TUESDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH
CLOSEST TO BEST SLUG OF OVERRUNNING MOISTURE. WILL STICK WITH A
CHC POP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE TUE
AFTN...LINGERING INTO TUE NGT OVER THE COASTAL AREAS AS MOISTURE
SHIFTS EAST AND ALONG COASTAL TROUGH. FOR HIGHS, LOOK FOR MAXIMA
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TUES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS TUE NGT IN THE U40S WELL INLAND TO MID 50S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL ZONES.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS
AS THE TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WL THEREFORE KEEP
FORECAST DRY WEST OF I-95 ON WED, WITH LOW CHC POP FARTHER EAST
FOR SOME SCT SHRAS OVER COASTAL AREAS/ERN SHORE. HIGHS WED
REMAIN BELOW CLIMO NUMBERS...GENERALLY IN THE L-M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WED NIGHT THRU
FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS (~30%) ACROSS FAR EASTERN
ZONES WED NIGHT...LOWERING TO SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) OVER THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE ON THURS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COASTAL LOW LATE IN THE COMING WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...PUSHING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION NEXT SUNDAY. DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED.
HIGHS THU 60-65...THEN FRI-SUN IN THE MID/UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE 40S
TO LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OCNL BKN CIGS 4-5 KFT INVOF CST THROUGH ABT 20-22Z/20 ALG W/ GUSTY
NNW WNDS TO 20-25 KT. OTRW VFR THROUGH MON NGT/EARLY TUE. WINDS
BECOME LGT/VRB OR CALM BY MID EVE...RMNS SO INTO EARLY MRNG HRS
MON. SSW WNDS DEVELOP DURG MON...SPEEDS RMNG AOB 15 KT.

NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUE THEN LINGERS
OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WED ALONG WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS. WNDS FROM THE NW ARE
EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESP CLOSER TO THE
CST.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ESE FROM THE OH VALLEY LATE THIS
AFTN/EVE...ALLOWING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO SUBSIDE.
WILL DROP HEADLINES FOR THE RIVERS AT 4 PM...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO
DROP HEADLINES FOR THE BAY/SOUND AT 7 PM...AND BY MIDNIGHT FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS.

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...ALLOWING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...ACCOMPANIED BY
CAA AND MORE SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE NE
OFF THE COAST WED-FRI...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF SCA CONDITIONS. FLOW WOULD AGAIN BE OFFSHORE FROM THE NW SO SEAS
WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT. WAVES REACHING 4 FT ON THE BAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT BREEZY/DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE TODAY. DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 30S THIS AFTERNOON...CREATING
MIN RH VALUES IN THE 30-35% RANGE. THIS IN TANDEM WITH DRYING FUELS
AND N-NW WINDS AROUND 15 MPH GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH MAY INCREASE
THE WILDFIRE DANGER.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...LKB
FIRE WEATHER...












000
FXUS61 KAKQ 192005
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
405 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TODAY...CENTERING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO/TN
VLYS THIS AFTERNOON. W-NW FLOW ALOFT AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE ALLOWING FOR A PLEASANT, ALBEIT COOL FALL AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS
THE REGION.

SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS
EVENING, SETTLING ALONG THE SE COASTAL PLAIN BY LATE TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL DECOUPLE EARLY ON TONIGHT. THIS IN TANDEM WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY WILL BRING EXCEPTIONAL RADIATING CONDITIONS WHICH WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP TO AROUND 40 DEGREES INLAND
(OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS) BY MIDNIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE A BIT LESS
CHILLY THAN 00Z NUMBERS, LIKELY OWING TO WEAK WAA LATE AND EXPECTED
CIRRUS ASSOCIATED W/H3 JET STREAK SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER,
AS PREV SHIFT NOTED, THIN CIRRUS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT COOLING.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND TO MID 40S
OVER THE COAST. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE. NO HEADLINES
PLANNED...BUT WILL CONTINUE HWO MENTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE MONDAY AS SLY RETURN FLOW/WAA
COMMENCES. AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE
REGION TUES AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE AS THE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACH. INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE UPPER
60S.

LOW PRESSURE DROPS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC MON NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AS THE CLIPPER FRONT, WITH
THE ASSOCIATED CLIPPER FRONT CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS EARLY
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE AN INVERTED TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPS
ALONG/JUST OFF THE SE COAST/MID-ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG UPPER VORT
MAX ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING UPPER LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CONUS TUESDAY NIGHT-LATE WED, THUS ENHANCING UVM ALONG
THE FRONT. HOWEVER, AS WE SAW WITH THE LAST SYSTEM YESTERDAY, LLVL
MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH PWATS REMAINING ON THE ORDER OF
0.75-1.00". STILL, MODELS ARE INTENT ON LIGHT QPF THROUGH THE
AFTN/EVE HOURS ON TUESDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH
CLOSEST TO BEST SLUG OF OVERRUNNING MOISTURE. WILL STICK WITH A
CHC POP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE TUE
AFTN...LINGERING INTO TUE NGT OVER THE COASTAL AREAS AS MOISTURE
SHIFTS EAST AND ALONG COASTAL TROUGH. FOR HIGHS, LOOK FOR MAXIMA
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TUES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS TUE NGT IN THE U40S WELL INLAND TO MID 50S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL ZONES.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS
AS THE TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WL THEREFORE KEEP
FORECAST DRY WEST OF I-95 ON WED, WITH LOW CHC POP FARTHER EAST
FOR SOME SCT SHRAS OVER COASTAL AREAS/ERN SHORE. HIGHS WED
REMAIN BELOW CLIMO NUMBERS...GENERALLY IN THE L-M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WED NIGHT THRU
FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS (~30%) ACROSS FAR EASTERN
ZONES WED NIGHT...LOWERING TO SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) OVER THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE ON THURS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COASTAL LOW LATE IN THE COMING WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...PUSHING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION NEXT SUNDAY. DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED.
HIGHS THU 60-65...THEN FRI-SUN IN THE MID/UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE 40S
TO LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OCNL BKN CIGS 4-5 KFT INVOF CST THROUGH ABT 20-22Z/20 ALG W/ GUSTY
NNW WNDS TO 20-25 KT. OTRW VFR THROUGH MON NGT/EARLY TUE. WINDS
BECOME LGT/VRB OR CALM BY MID EVE...RMNS SO INTO EARLY MRNG HRS
MON. SSW WNDS DEVELOP DURG MON...SPEEDS RMNG AOB 15 KT.

NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUE THEN LINGERS
OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WED ALONG WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS. WNDS FROM THE NW ARE
EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESP CLOSER TO THE
CST.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ESE FROM THE OH VALLEY LATE THIS
AFTN/EVE...ALLOWING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO SUBSIDE.
WILL DROP HEADLINES FOR THE RIVERS AT 4 PM...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO
DROP HEADLINES FOR THE BAY/SOUND AT 7 PM...AND BY MIDNIGHT FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS.

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...ALLOWING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...ACCOMPANIED BY
CAA AND MORE SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE NE
OFF THE COAST WED-FRI...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF SCA CONDITIONS. FLOW WOULD AGAIN BE OFFSHORE FROM THE NW SO SEAS
WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT. WAVES REACHING 4 FT ON THE BAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT BREEZY/DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE TODAY. DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 30S THIS AFTERNOON...CREATING
MIN RH VALUES IN THE 30-35% RANGE. THIS IN TANDEM WITH DRYING FUELS
AND N-NW WINDS AROUND 15 MPH GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH MAY INCREASE
THE WILDFIRE DANGER.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...LKB
FIRE WEATHER...












000
FXUS61 KAKQ 192005
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
405 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TODAY...CENTERING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO/TN
VLYS THIS AFTERNOON. W-NW FLOW ALOFT AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE ALLOWING FOR A PLEASANT, ALBEIT COOL FALL AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS
THE REGION.

SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS
EVENING, SETTLING ALONG THE SE COASTAL PLAIN BY LATE TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL DECOUPLE EARLY ON TONIGHT. THIS IN TANDEM WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY WILL BRING EXCEPTIONAL RADIATING CONDITIONS WHICH WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP TO AROUND 40 DEGREES INLAND
(OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS) BY MIDNIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE A BIT LESS
CHILLY THAN 00Z NUMBERS, LIKELY OWING TO WEAK WAA LATE AND EXPECTED
CIRRUS ASSOCIATED W/H3 JET STREAK SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER,
AS PREV SHIFT NOTED, THIN CIRRUS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT COOLING.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND TO MID 40S
OVER THE COAST. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE. NO HEADLINES
PLANNED...BUT WILL CONTINUE HWO MENTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE MONDAY AS SLY RETURN FLOW/WAA
COMMENCES. AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE
REGION TUES AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE AS THE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACH. INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE UPPER
60S.

LOW PRESSURE DROPS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC MON NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AS THE CLIPPER FRONT, WITH
THE ASSOCIATED CLIPPER FRONT CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS EARLY
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE AN INVERTED TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPS
ALONG/JUST OFF THE SE COAST/MID-ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG UPPER VORT
MAX ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING UPPER LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CONUS TUESDAY NIGHT-LATE WED, THUS ENHANCING UVM ALONG
THE FRONT. HOWEVER, AS WE SAW WITH THE LAST SYSTEM YESTERDAY, LLVL
MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH PWATS REMAINING ON THE ORDER OF
0.75-1.00". STILL, MODELS ARE INTENT ON LIGHT QPF THROUGH THE
AFTN/EVE HOURS ON TUESDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH
CLOSEST TO BEST SLUG OF OVERRUNNING MOISTURE. WILL STICK WITH A
CHC POP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE TUE
AFTN...LINGERING INTO TUE NGT OVER THE COASTAL AREAS AS MOISTURE
SHIFTS EAST AND ALONG COASTAL TROUGH. FOR HIGHS, LOOK FOR MAXIMA
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TUES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS TUE NGT IN THE U40S WELL INLAND TO MID 50S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL ZONES.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS
AS THE TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WL THEREFORE KEEP
FORECAST DRY WEST OF I-95 ON WED, WITH LOW CHC POP FARTHER EAST
FOR SOME SCT SHRAS OVER COASTAL AREAS/ERN SHORE. HIGHS WED
REMAIN BELOW CLIMO NUMBERS...GENERALLY IN THE L-M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WED NIGHT THRU
FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS (~30%) ACROSS FAR EASTERN
ZONES WED NIGHT...LOWERING TO SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) OVER THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE ON THURS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COASTAL LOW LATE IN THE COMING WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...PUSHING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION NEXT SUNDAY. DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED.
HIGHS THU 60-65...THEN FRI-SUN IN THE MID/UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE 40S
TO LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OCNL BKN CIGS 4-5 KFT INVOF CST THROUGH ABT 20-22Z/20 ALG W/ GUSTY
NNW WNDS TO 20-25 KT. OTRW VFR THROUGH MON NGT/EARLY TUE. WINDS
BECOME LGT/VRB OR CALM BY MID EVE...RMNS SO INTO EARLY MRNG HRS
MON. SSW WNDS DEVELOP DURG MON...SPEEDS RMNG AOB 15 KT.

NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUE THEN LINGERS
OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WED ALONG WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS. WNDS FROM THE NW ARE
EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESP CLOSER TO THE
CST.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ESE FROM THE OH VALLEY LATE THIS
AFTN/EVE...ALLOWING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO SUBSIDE.
WILL DROP HEADLINES FOR THE RIVERS AT 4 PM...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO
DROP HEADLINES FOR THE BAY/SOUND AT 7 PM...AND BY MIDNIGHT FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS.

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...ALLOWING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...ACCOMPANIED BY
CAA AND MORE SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE NE
OFF THE COAST WED-FRI...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF SCA CONDITIONS. FLOW WOULD AGAIN BE OFFSHORE FROM THE NW SO SEAS
WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT. WAVES REACHING 4 FT ON THE BAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT BREEZY/DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE TODAY. DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 30S THIS AFTERNOON...CREATING
MIN RH VALUES IN THE 30-35% RANGE. THIS IN TANDEM WITH DRYING FUELS
AND N-NW WINDS AROUND 15 MPH GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH MAY INCREASE
THE WILDFIRE DANGER.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...LKB
FIRE WEATHER...












000
FXUS61 KPHI 191957
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
357 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT. ON MONDAY A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REACHING OUR REGION DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE CAROLINA
COASTLINE ON TUESDAY AS WELL. THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER AND MERGE JUST OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEPART THE REGION BY FRIDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY LATER THIS
EVENING AS WE LOSE ANY SURFACE HEATING AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM WINDS
EXPECTED. DEWPOINTS WILL HOVER IN THE UPPER-20S TO LOW-30S MOST OF
THE NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AS WELL UNDER THE GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS.

THE FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORY LOCATIONS AND TIMING REMAINS
UNCHANGED. THE BIGGEST FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE HOW FAST
TEMPERATURES DROP WITH THE DECOUPLING BEFORE SOME JET CIRRUS ADVECTS
IN FROM THE WEST. LOOKING UPSTREAM AT THE CIRRUS IT DOES NOT APPEAR
TO VERY THICK AND THE MODEL RH VALUES FROM 1000 TO 500MB ARE RATHER
VANILLA SO WE SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO COOL A BIT OR LEVEL OFF ONCE
THE CLOUDS ROLL IN.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WERE A BLEND OF THE MET/MAVMOS WITH A HEAVIER
WEIGHTING ON THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MET. THE NAM OVERALL APPEARED TO
INITIALIZE BETTER THAN THE GFS UPSTREAM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE OTHER THAN WE SHOULD
BE ABLE TO TACK ON A FEW DEGREES TO DAYTIME HIGHS. WINDS BACK
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY LATE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN TO CREEP UP THOUGH
NOT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR COLUMN SATURATION. WE KEEP MONDAY DRY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE RIPPLING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS AND WAA BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM. ENOUGH LIFT SHOULD BE PRESENT TO GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE TUESDAY
WITH QPF UNDER 1/10TH OF AN INCH. MAV AND MET GUIDANCE SETS USED FOR
MOST WEATHER ELEMENTS IN THIS PERIOD.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND BE SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD. THE END RESULT WILL BE GRAY GLOOMY COOLER DAYS FEATURING
RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. THE FORMATION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL START
WITH TWO PIECES, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND COLD FRONT DIVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND A LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF
THE CAROLINA`S. THE UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS ON TUESDAY TO THE REGION WITH A MOISTURE
PLUME FROM THE CAROLINA LOW WELL OFFSHORE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT WE BEGIN
TO SEE MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE FEATURES, PHASING. A PHASED LOW
FORMS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE
MAJORITY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE BROUGHT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TO
COMPARE OUR REGION WOULD BE FAVORED FOR JUST SOME WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS.

OVERALL THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER CONSENSUS TODAY
THAT THE ABOVE OUTCOME WILL OCCUR. THIS IS REFLECTED IN BOTH THE 00Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN COMPARED TO THE OPERATIONAL RUN AND THE 06Z
GEFS. WITH THAT BEING SAID, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT
THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LASTING
THROUGH THURSDAY. AREAS FURTHER NORTHEAST CLOSER TO THE LOW
STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE THE MOST IN TERMS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.
TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THE SHOWERS ARE STILL PRESENT LEAVING SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH POPS, KEPT AT HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END LIKELY.
TOTAL RAINFALL WILL BE UNDER ONE INCH FOR THIS EVENT. THE 12Z
ECMWF AND NAM FROM TODAY DO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY BEGINS TO TRANSFER TO THE COAST, THIS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS NEW DATA COMES IN. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS, LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP AT NIGHT CLOSE TO 50 FOR MOST OF US
WHILE HIGHS STRUGGLE TOWARD 60, COOLER NW. NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE
MODELS AND THERE ENSEMBLES/ STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES,
WENT ON THE WARMER END EACH NIGHT AND THE COOLER END DURING EACH
DAY. IN TERMS OF TIDES IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE WIND DIRECTION WILL
NOT CREATE DEPARTURES HIGH ENOUGH FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OR
CREATE LOW ENOUGH DEPARTURES FOR BLOWOUT TIDES ATTM.


FRIDAY: LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK IN. THIS ALLOWS FOR CLEARING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND
THE FIRST DRY DAY IN A WHILE. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO BE
CLOSER TO MEX GUIDANCE AND THE 12Z ECMWF MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
MIXING TO LEAD TO SOME AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: DURING D+6 AND D+7, THE NEGATIVE
NAO/POSITIVE PNA PATTERN OF THE PAST TWO WEEKS IS PROJECTED TO
REVERSE. THIS TREND IS UNDERWAY, AND IS EVIDENT IN LESS HIGH-
LATITUDE BLOCKING. THE MAIN MID-LEVEL FEATURES IN THIS TIMEFRAME
ARE A CLOSED LOW LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH A MORE ZONAL FLOW ON
SUNDAY. THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THESE FEATURES, AS THE
GFS EJECTS THE CLOSED LOW SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF, RESULTING IN A
DELAYED RETURN TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW. THIS FURTHER RESULTS IN THE
GFS MOVING THE SHORTWAVE FURTHER NORTHEAST, WHILE THE ECMWF TAKES
IT MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. SOME OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO SUPPORT THE ECMWF SOLUTION. GIVEN THE GFS
INITIALIZED MORE ROBUST WITH THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE /LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AS OF THIS WRITING/ THAT RESULTS IN THE CUT-
OFF LOW, AND PREVIOUS GFS RUNS WERE MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF,
FEEL THE GFS SOLUTION IS UNREALISTIC. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS ALSO
MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE PROJECTED LACK OF HIGH-LATITUDE
BLOCKING.

FOR SATURDAY, SHORT-WAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. AT THIS TIME, THE COLUMN IS DRY SO NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED, AND TEMPS AT 850 HPA SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
60S REGIONWIDE. A COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SAT NIGHT. AT THIS TIME, THE BEST DYNAMICS ARE SITUATED TO THE NORTH
AND MOISTURE IS LIMITED THROUGH THE COLUMN. FOR NOW, INCREASED SKY
COVER, BUT DID INSERT ANY POPS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. IF THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT HOLDS, PROJECTED 850 HPA TEMPS WOULD SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS ON SUNDAY, IN THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S.

FINALLY, MODELS INDICATE A POSSIBLE HYBRID SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN
THE GMEX AT THE TAIL END OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY, PLACING IT IN THE
VICINITY OF FLORIDA DURING THE SATURDAY-SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS
FEATURE WILL BEAR WATCHING.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR. WE LOSE THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BY THIS EVENING AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED.

MONDAY...VFR. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS. INCREASING CIRRUS BECOMING ALTOCU BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THINK ANY RAIN CHANCES HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SOME RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FROM 15-20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT...SCA GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH ON THE BAY BY THIS EVENING SO WE
CONTINUE THE END TIME OF 8PM. THE OCEAN FRONT TOO REMAINS UNCHANGED
FROM THE MIDNIGHT END TIME. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN WILL ALLOW THE
WIND AND SEAS TO RELAX LATE TONIGHT.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS REMAIN 2 TO 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BUT INCREASING WEDNESDAY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: OVERALL THINKING IS THAT WAVEWATCH
IS UNDERDONE BY ABOUT A FOOT ON THE SEAS. SEAS WILL LIKELY BE AT OR
OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH SOME DECREASE IN THE
SEAS FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON. SCA POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ054-055-061-
     062.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ060-101>106.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ020>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>019-023.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GAINES
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...FRANCK/GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER
MARINE...GAINES/HEAVENER






000
FXUS61 KLWX 191853
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
253 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY PASS BY THE AREA TO THE SOUTH...
USHERING IN CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL QUICKLY DIVE DOWN THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST...BUT SLOW DOWN AND RESIDE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW
ENGLAND REGIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HEADLINE UPDATE...FREEZE WATCH REPLACED W/ FREEZE WARNING FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL APLCNS COUNTIES - HIGHLAND/PENDLETON/W
GRANT. A FROST ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SHENANDOAH
VALLEY...THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...AND NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND. BOTH
PRODUCTS FROM 2-9AM OVERNIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING.

A MAJORITY OF THE FORCING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT CONTINUED TO
BUILD THE EARLIER STRATUS DECKS HAVE MOVED OFF THE COAST ALONG W/
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. THE WINDS WILL BE THE NEXT TO GO BUT WILL
LINGER FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER FEW HRS UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNSET THIS
EVE. THE TOP-END GUSTS HAVE DROPPED OFF FROM THE UPPER 20KT RANGE
DOWN INTO LOWER 20S...SO MORE OF A STEADY BREEZE THAN WINDY.
SEVERAL HRS OF THESE WINDS HAVE HELD-DOWN TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION...BARELY INTO THE U50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA W/ A FEW L60S
ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR/NEAR-COASTAL ZONES. CLEAR SKIES WILL HELP
THESE CONDITIONS SLIDE A DEGREE-OR-TWO HIGHER W/IN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HRS. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA ARE SHOWING AT LEAST A COUPLE
DEG OR SLIGHTLY MORE - LESS THAN MOST MODELS...EVEN THE ADJ VALUES
OR HAVE DIFFERENT AREAL PLACEMENT OF THE LOWER VALUES.

THE DRY AFTN CONDITIONS AND LACK OF CLOUD COVER HEADING INTO THE
NIGHTTIME HRS WILL SET MOST OF THE REGION UP FOR POTENTIAL FROST
DEVELOPMENT. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRAG THE ASSOCIATED
TURBULENCE W/ IT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE ROLLS BY JUST TO OUR
SOUTH...GOOD RATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
TEMPS NOT EXPECTED TO DROP FAR ENOUGH E OF THE BLUE RIDGE FOR MUCH
MORE THAN PATCHY FROST - BUT ALONG/NEAR THE MASON DIXON
LINE...DOWN ACROSS THE SHEN VLY AND WRN APLCNS VLYS - MORE
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATION COUNTIES...IN THE VLYS...SO A FREEZE WRNG IN
EFFECT WHILE STILL IN LATE STAGES OF THE GROWING SEASON. SOME
UNCERTAINTY FOLLOWS THIS BECAUSE OF THE EXPECTED TIMING OF
INCOMING CLOUD COVER FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. A HIGH CIRRUS SHIELD
COULD POTENTIALLY LIMIT THE AMOUNT AND COVERAGE OF FROST
DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE ENOUGH AND THE
TEMP/DEWPOINTS CONTINUITY IS FAVORABLE ACROSS THESE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A ONE-DAY REPRIEVE FROM THE FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS AS THE SFC HIGH
ROLLING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS MAKES AN EXIT OFF THE COAST AND
BRINGS IN RETURN SLY FLOW. THIS WIND REGIME WILL ALLOW FOR A MINOR
WARM-UP RELATIVE TO TODAY`S CONDITIONS. AS WINDS SWITCH OUT OF THE
SOUTH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER-LIKE FEATURE
WILL DIVE DOWN TOWARD THE AREA FROM N OF THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE
APEX OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE REACH NRN NY MON EVE...THE SYSTEM AS A
WHOLE WILL DECELERATE AND BEGIN TO CUT-OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER
JET STREAM.

MOISTURE WILL RETURNS FROM THE TOP-DOWN AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES. THICKER MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECKS WILL ARRIVE LATE
MON AFTN/EVE ON THE ERN FRINGE OF THE INCOMING UPPER WAVE. FALLING
PRECIP WILL HAVE A SIZABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME BEFORE
REACHING THE SFC...BUT THIS WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE LATE NIGHT HRS.

INCREASE POPS FOR THE CNTRL APLCNS LATE MON AND KEPT A LOW CHANCE
FURTHER EAST TO THE BLUE RIDGE. THE SFC TROUGH CROSSES THE CWA
MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW CROSSES THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW CHANCES
FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE CWA AS DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL GREATLY
LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WITH
DOWNSLOPING FLOW COUNTERACTING CLOUD COVER FROM KEEPING
TEMPERATURES TOO LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROUGH WILL JUMP SOUTHWARD FROM OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WORKWEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. THE LOW WILL LOOSE SOME OF ITS
ORGANIZATION...LIKELY DUE TO THE PASSAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT
POPS WILL ENTER THE HIGH END CHANCE RANGE BEGINNING TUESDAY.
PRECIP TYPE SHOULD MOSTLY BE LIGHT RAIN WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL OCCLUDE FROM THE BACKGROUND WESTERLIES AS
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OFF OF THE NORTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. OPERATIONAL EURO AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE HIGHEST QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM BEING
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LOW WELL OFF OF THE COAST...BUT
LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD CONTINUE LOCALLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

COOL AND BREEZY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL FILL IN AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES
UP THE COAST THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. THIS WILL LEAD
TO CLEARING SKIES AND TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD FOR THE WEEKEND
ALLOWING TEMPS TO BEGIN TO SLOWLY REBOUND TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...THROUGH GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BE
A CONCERN JUST THRU THE 22-23Z TIME FRAME - THEN THE SFC AND LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL START TO DROP OFF SUBSTANTIALLY. HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL HELP TAKE WINDS TO NEAR CALM LEVELS
OVERNIGHT AND IT`S OWN EXIT OFF THE COAST ON MON WILL STEER WINDS
BACK TO A MORE SLY DIRECTION FOR THE DAYTIME HRS.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF AVIATION HAZARDS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS
INTO THE EVE HRS. THE TOP-END GUSTS ARE DROPPING DOWN INTO THE
L20KT RANGE AND WILL KEEP DISSIPATING IN THE COMING HRS...AS THE
RESPONSIBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OFFSHORE. WINDS DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER CROSSES THE BAY LATE IN THE NIGHT.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC IN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE NORTHEAST COAST BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ003>005-501-
     502.
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ025>031.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ050>053-055-
     502>504.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ501-505-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ531>534-
     537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     535-536-538-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GMS
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...GMS/CEB
MARINE...GMS/CEB






000
FXUS61 KLWX 191853
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
253 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY PASS BY THE AREA TO THE SOUTH...
USHERING IN CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL QUICKLY DIVE DOWN THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST...BUT SLOW DOWN AND RESIDE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW
ENGLAND REGIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HEADLINE UPDATE...FREEZE WATCH REPLACED W/ FREEZE WARNING FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL APLCNS COUNTIES - HIGHLAND/PENDLETON/W
GRANT. A FROST ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SHENANDOAH
VALLEY...THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...AND NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND. BOTH
PRODUCTS FROM 2-9AM OVERNIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING.

A MAJORITY OF THE FORCING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT CONTINUED TO
BUILD THE EARLIER STRATUS DECKS HAVE MOVED OFF THE COAST ALONG W/
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. THE WINDS WILL BE THE NEXT TO GO BUT WILL
LINGER FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER FEW HRS UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNSET THIS
EVE. THE TOP-END GUSTS HAVE DROPPED OFF FROM THE UPPER 20KT RANGE
DOWN INTO LOWER 20S...SO MORE OF A STEADY BREEZE THAN WINDY.
SEVERAL HRS OF THESE WINDS HAVE HELD-DOWN TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION...BARELY INTO THE U50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA W/ A FEW L60S
ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR/NEAR-COASTAL ZONES. CLEAR SKIES WILL HELP
THESE CONDITIONS SLIDE A DEGREE-OR-TWO HIGHER W/IN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HRS. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA ARE SHOWING AT LEAST A COUPLE
DEG OR SLIGHTLY MORE - LESS THAN MOST MODELS...EVEN THE ADJ VALUES
OR HAVE DIFFERENT AREAL PLACEMENT OF THE LOWER VALUES.

THE DRY AFTN CONDITIONS AND LACK OF CLOUD COVER HEADING INTO THE
NIGHTTIME HRS WILL SET MOST OF THE REGION UP FOR POTENTIAL FROST
DEVELOPMENT. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRAG THE ASSOCIATED
TURBULENCE W/ IT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE ROLLS BY JUST TO OUR
SOUTH...GOOD RATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
TEMPS NOT EXPECTED TO DROP FAR ENOUGH E OF THE BLUE RIDGE FOR MUCH
MORE THAN PATCHY FROST - BUT ALONG/NEAR THE MASON DIXON
LINE...DOWN ACROSS THE SHEN VLY AND WRN APLCNS VLYS - MORE
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATION COUNTIES...IN THE VLYS...SO A FREEZE WRNG IN
EFFECT WHILE STILL IN LATE STAGES OF THE GROWING SEASON. SOME
UNCERTAINTY FOLLOWS THIS BECAUSE OF THE EXPECTED TIMING OF
INCOMING CLOUD COVER FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. A HIGH CIRRUS SHIELD
COULD POTENTIALLY LIMIT THE AMOUNT AND COVERAGE OF FROST
DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE ENOUGH AND THE
TEMP/DEWPOINTS CONTINUITY IS FAVORABLE ACROSS THESE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A ONE-DAY REPRIEVE FROM THE FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS AS THE SFC HIGH
ROLLING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS MAKES AN EXIT OFF THE COAST AND
BRINGS IN RETURN SLY FLOW. THIS WIND REGIME WILL ALLOW FOR A MINOR
WARM-UP RELATIVE TO TODAY`S CONDITIONS. AS WINDS SWITCH OUT OF THE
SOUTH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER-LIKE FEATURE
WILL DIVE DOWN TOWARD THE AREA FROM N OF THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE
APEX OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE REACH NRN NY MON EVE...THE SYSTEM AS A
WHOLE WILL DECELERATE AND BEGIN TO CUT-OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER
JET STREAM.

MOISTURE WILL RETURNS FROM THE TOP-DOWN AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES. THICKER MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECKS WILL ARRIVE LATE
MON AFTN/EVE ON THE ERN FRINGE OF THE INCOMING UPPER WAVE. FALLING
PRECIP WILL HAVE A SIZABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME BEFORE
REACHING THE SFC...BUT THIS WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE LATE NIGHT HRS.

INCREASE POPS FOR THE CNTRL APLCNS LATE MON AND KEPT A LOW CHANCE
FURTHER EAST TO THE BLUE RIDGE. THE SFC TROUGH CROSSES THE CWA
MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW CROSSES THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW CHANCES
FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE CWA AS DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL GREATLY
LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WITH
DOWNSLOPING FLOW COUNTERACTING CLOUD COVER FROM KEEPING
TEMPERATURES TOO LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROUGH WILL JUMP SOUTHWARD FROM OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WORKWEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. THE LOW WILL LOOSE SOME OF ITS
ORGANIZATION...LIKELY DUE TO THE PASSAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT
POPS WILL ENTER THE HIGH END CHANCE RANGE BEGINNING TUESDAY.
PRECIP TYPE SHOULD MOSTLY BE LIGHT RAIN WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL OCCLUDE FROM THE BACKGROUND WESTERLIES AS
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OFF OF THE NORTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. OPERATIONAL EURO AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE HIGHEST QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM BEING
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LOW WELL OFF OF THE COAST...BUT
LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD CONTINUE LOCALLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

COOL AND BREEZY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL FILL IN AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES
UP THE COAST THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. THIS WILL LEAD
TO CLEARING SKIES AND TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD FOR THE WEEKEND
ALLOWING TEMPS TO BEGIN TO SLOWLY REBOUND TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...THROUGH GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BE
A CONCERN JUST THRU THE 22-23Z TIME FRAME - THEN THE SFC AND LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL START TO DROP OFF SUBSTANTIALLY. HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL HELP TAKE WINDS TO NEAR CALM LEVELS
OVERNIGHT AND IT`S OWN EXIT OFF THE COAST ON MON WILL STEER WINDS
BACK TO A MORE SLY DIRECTION FOR THE DAYTIME HRS.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF AVIATION HAZARDS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS
INTO THE EVE HRS. THE TOP-END GUSTS ARE DROPPING DOWN INTO THE
L20KT RANGE AND WILL KEEP DISSIPATING IN THE COMING HRS...AS THE
RESPONSIBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OFFSHORE. WINDS DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER CROSSES THE BAY LATE IN THE NIGHT.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC IN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE NORTHEAST COAST BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ003>005-501-
     502.
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ025>031.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ050>053-055-
     502>504.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ501-505-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ531>534-
     537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     535-536-538-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GMS
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...GMS/CEB
MARINE...GMS/CEB






000
FXUS61 KLWX 191853
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
253 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY PASS BY THE AREA TO THE SOUTH...
USHERING IN CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL QUICKLY DIVE DOWN THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST...BUT SLOW DOWN AND RESIDE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW
ENGLAND REGIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HEADLINE UPDATE...FREEZE WATCH REPLACED W/ FREEZE WARNING FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL APLCNS COUNTIES - HIGHLAND/PENDLETON/W
GRANT. A FROST ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SHENANDOAH
VALLEY...THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...AND NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND. BOTH
PRODUCTS FROM 2-9AM OVERNIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING.

A MAJORITY OF THE FORCING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT CONTINUED TO
BUILD THE EARLIER STRATUS DECKS HAVE MOVED OFF THE COAST ALONG W/
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. THE WINDS WILL BE THE NEXT TO GO BUT WILL
LINGER FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER FEW HRS UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNSET THIS
EVE. THE TOP-END GUSTS HAVE DROPPED OFF FROM THE UPPER 20KT RANGE
DOWN INTO LOWER 20S...SO MORE OF A STEADY BREEZE THAN WINDY.
SEVERAL HRS OF THESE WINDS HAVE HELD-DOWN TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION...BARELY INTO THE U50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA W/ A FEW L60S
ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR/NEAR-COASTAL ZONES. CLEAR SKIES WILL HELP
THESE CONDITIONS SLIDE A DEGREE-OR-TWO HIGHER W/IN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HRS. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA ARE SHOWING AT LEAST A COUPLE
DEG OR SLIGHTLY MORE - LESS THAN MOST MODELS...EVEN THE ADJ VALUES
OR HAVE DIFFERENT AREAL PLACEMENT OF THE LOWER VALUES.

THE DRY AFTN CONDITIONS AND LACK OF CLOUD COVER HEADING INTO THE
NIGHTTIME HRS WILL SET MOST OF THE REGION UP FOR POTENTIAL FROST
DEVELOPMENT. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRAG THE ASSOCIATED
TURBULENCE W/ IT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE ROLLS BY JUST TO OUR
SOUTH...GOOD RATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
TEMPS NOT EXPECTED TO DROP FAR ENOUGH E OF THE BLUE RIDGE FOR MUCH
MORE THAN PATCHY FROST - BUT ALONG/NEAR THE MASON DIXON
LINE...DOWN ACROSS THE SHEN VLY AND WRN APLCNS VLYS - MORE
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATION COUNTIES...IN THE VLYS...SO A FREEZE WRNG IN
EFFECT WHILE STILL IN LATE STAGES OF THE GROWING SEASON. SOME
UNCERTAINTY FOLLOWS THIS BECAUSE OF THE EXPECTED TIMING OF
INCOMING CLOUD COVER FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. A HIGH CIRRUS SHIELD
COULD POTENTIALLY LIMIT THE AMOUNT AND COVERAGE OF FROST
DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE ENOUGH AND THE
TEMP/DEWPOINTS CONTINUITY IS FAVORABLE ACROSS THESE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A ONE-DAY REPRIEVE FROM THE FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS AS THE SFC HIGH
ROLLING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS MAKES AN EXIT OFF THE COAST AND
BRINGS IN RETURN SLY FLOW. THIS WIND REGIME WILL ALLOW FOR A MINOR
WARM-UP RELATIVE TO TODAY`S CONDITIONS. AS WINDS SWITCH OUT OF THE
SOUTH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER-LIKE FEATURE
WILL DIVE DOWN TOWARD THE AREA FROM N OF THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE
APEX OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE REACH NRN NY MON EVE...THE SYSTEM AS A
WHOLE WILL DECELERATE AND BEGIN TO CUT-OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER
JET STREAM.

MOISTURE WILL RETURNS FROM THE TOP-DOWN AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES. THICKER MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECKS WILL ARRIVE LATE
MON AFTN/EVE ON THE ERN FRINGE OF THE INCOMING UPPER WAVE. FALLING
PRECIP WILL HAVE A SIZABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME BEFORE
REACHING THE SFC...BUT THIS WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE LATE NIGHT HRS.

INCREASE POPS FOR THE CNTRL APLCNS LATE MON AND KEPT A LOW CHANCE
FURTHER EAST TO THE BLUE RIDGE. THE SFC TROUGH CROSSES THE CWA
MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW CROSSES THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW CHANCES
FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE CWA AS DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL GREATLY
LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WITH
DOWNSLOPING FLOW COUNTERACTING CLOUD COVER FROM KEEPING
TEMPERATURES TOO LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROUGH WILL JUMP SOUTHWARD FROM OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WORKWEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. THE LOW WILL LOOSE SOME OF ITS
ORGANIZATION...LIKELY DUE TO THE PASSAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT
POPS WILL ENTER THE HIGH END CHANCE RANGE BEGINNING TUESDAY.
PRECIP TYPE SHOULD MOSTLY BE LIGHT RAIN WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL OCCLUDE FROM THE BACKGROUND WESTERLIES AS
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OFF OF THE NORTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. OPERATIONAL EURO AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE HIGHEST QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM BEING
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LOW WELL OFF OF THE COAST...BUT
LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD CONTINUE LOCALLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

COOL AND BREEZY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL FILL IN AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES
UP THE COAST THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. THIS WILL LEAD
TO CLEARING SKIES AND TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD FOR THE WEEKEND
ALLOWING TEMPS TO BEGIN TO SLOWLY REBOUND TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...THROUGH GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BE
A CONCERN JUST THRU THE 22-23Z TIME FRAME - THEN THE SFC AND LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL START TO DROP OFF SUBSTANTIALLY. HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL HELP TAKE WINDS TO NEAR CALM LEVELS
OVERNIGHT AND IT`S OWN EXIT OFF THE COAST ON MON WILL STEER WINDS
BACK TO A MORE SLY DIRECTION FOR THE DAYTIME HRS.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF AVIATION HAZARDS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS
INTO THE EVE HRS. THE TOP-END GUSTS ARE DROPPING DOWN INTO THE
L20KT RANGE AND WILL KEEP DISSIPATING IN THE COMING HRS...AS THE
RESPONSIBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OFFSHORE. WINDS DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER CROSSES THE BAY LATE IN THE NIGHT.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC IN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE NORTHEAST COAST BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ003>005-501-
     502.
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ025>031.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ050>053-055-
     502>504.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ501-505-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ531>534-
     537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     535-536-538-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GMS
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...GMS/CEB
MARINE...GMS/CEB






000
FXUS61 KLWX 191853
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
253 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY PASS BY THE AREA TO THE SOUTH...
USHERING IN CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL QUICKLY DIVE DOWN THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST...BUT SLOW DOWN AND RESIDE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW
ENGLAND REGIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HEADLINE UPDATE...FREEZE WATCH REPLACED W/ FREEZE WARNING FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL APLCNS COUNTIES - HIGHLAND/PENDLETON/W
GRANT. A FROST ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SHENANDOAH
VALLEY...THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...AND NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND. BOTH
PRODUCTS FROM 2-9AM OVERNIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING.

A MAJORITY OF THE FORCING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT CONTINUED TO
BUILD THE EARLIER STRATUS DECKS HAVE MOVED OFF THE COAST ALONG W/
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. THE WINDS WILL BE THE NEXT TO GO BUT WILL
LINGER FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER FEW HRS UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNSET THIS
EVE. THE TOP-END GUSTS HAVE DROPPED OFF FROM THE UPPER 20KT RANGE
DOWN INTO LOWER 20S...SO MORE OF A STEADY BREEZE THAN WINDY.
SEVERAL HRS OF THESE WINDS HAVE HELD-DOWN TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION...BARELY INTO THE U50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA W/ A FEW L60S
ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR/NEAR-COASTAL ZONES. CLEAR SKIES WILL HELP
THESE CONDITIONS SLIDE A DEGREE-OR-TWO HIGHER W/IN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HRS. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA ARE SHOWING AT LEAST A COUPLE
DEG OR SLIGHTLY MORE - LESS THAN MOST MODELS...EVEN THE ADJ VALUES
OR HAVE DIFFERENT AREAL PLACEMENT OF THE LOWER VALUES.

THE DRY AFTN CONDITIONS AND LACK OF CLOUD COVER HEADING INTO THE
NIGHTTIME HRS WILL SET MOST OF THE REGION UP FOR POTENTIAL FROST
DEVELOPMENT. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRAG THE ASSOCIATED
TURBULENCE W/ IT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE ROLLS BY JUST TO OUR
SOUTH...GOOD RATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
TEMPS NOT EXPECTED TO DROP FAR ENOUGH E OF THE BLUE RIDGE FOR MUCH
MORE THAN PATCHY FROST - BUT ALONG/NEAR THE MASON DIXON
LINE...DOWN ACROSS THE SHEN VLY AND WRN APLCNS VLYS - MORE
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATION COUNTIES...IN THE VLYS...SO A FREEZE WRNG IN
EFFECT WHILE STILL IN LATE STAGES OF THE GROWING SEASON. SOME
UNCERTAINTY FOLLOWS THIS BECAUSE OF THE EXPECTED TIMING OF
INCOMING CLOUD COVER FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. A HIGH CIRRUS SHIELD
COULD POTENTIALLY LIMIT THE AMOUNT AND COVERAGE OF FROST
DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE ENOUGH AND THE
TEMP/DEWPOINTS CONTINUITY IS FAVORABLE ACROSS THESE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A ONE-DAY REPRIEVE FROM THE FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS AS THE SFC HIGH
ROLLING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS MAKES AN EXIT OFF THE COAST AND
BRINGS IN RETURN SLY FLOW. THIS WIND REGIME WILL ALLOW FOR A MINOR
WARM-UP RELATIVE TO TODAY`S CONDITIONS. AS WINDS SWITCH OUT OF THE
SOUTH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER-LIKE FEATURE
WILL DIVE DOWN TOWARD THE AREA FROM N OF THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE
APEX OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE REACH NRN NY MON EVE...THE SYSTEM AS A
WHOLE WILL DECELERATE AND BEGIN TO CUT-OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER
JET STREAM.

MOISTURE WILL RETURNS FROM THE TOP-DOWN AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES. THICKER MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECKS WILL ARRIVE LATE
MON AFTN/EVE ON THE ERN FRINGE OF THE INCOMING UPPER WAVE. FALLING
PRECIP WILL HAVE A SIZABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME BEFORE
REACHING THE SFC...BUT THIS WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE LATE NIGHT HRS.

INCREASE POPS FOR THE CNTRL APLCNS LATE MON AND KEPT A LOW CHANCE
FURTHER EAST TO THE BLUE RIDGE. THE SFC TROUGH CROSSES THE CWA
MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW CROSSES THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW CHANCES
FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE CWA AS DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL GREATLY
LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WITH
DOWNSLOPING FLOW COUNTERACTING CLOUD COVER FROM KEEPING
TEMPERATURES TOO LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROUGH WILL JUMP SOUTHWARD FROM OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WORKWEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. THE LOW WILL LOOSE SOME OF ITS
ORGANIZATION...LIKELY DUE TO THE PASSAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT
POPS WILL ENTER THE HIGH END CHANCE RANGE BEGINNING TUESDAY.
PRECIP TYPE SHOULD MOSTLY BE LIGHT RAIN WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL OCCLUDE FROM THE BACKGROUND WESTERLIES AS
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OFF OF THE NORTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. OPERATIONAL EURO AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE HIGHEST QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM BEING
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LOW WELL OFF OF THE COAST...BUT
LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD CONTINUE LOCALLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

COOL AND BREEZY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL FILL IN AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES
UP THE COAST THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. THIS WILL LEAD
TO CLEARING SKIES AND TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD FOR THE WEEKEND
ALLOWING TEMPS TO BEGIN TO SLOWLY REBOUND TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...THROUGH GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BE
A CONCERN JUST THRU THE 22-23Z TIME FRAME - THEN THE SFC AND LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL START TO DROP OFF SUBSTANTIALLY. HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL HELP TAKE WINDS TO NEAR CALM LEVELS
OVERNIGHT AND IT`S OWN EXIT OFF THE COAST ON MON WILL STEER WINDS
BACK TO A MORE SLY DIRECTION FOR THE DAYTIME HRS.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF AVIATION HAZARDS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS
INTO THE EVE HRS. THE TOP-END GUSTS ARE DROPPING DOWN INTO THE
L20KT RANGE AND WILL KEEP DISSIPATING IN THE COMING HRS...AS THE
RESPONSIBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OFFSHORE. WINDS DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER CROSSES THE BAY LATE IN THE NIGHT.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC IN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE NORTHEAST COAST BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ003>005-501-
     502.
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ025>031.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ050>053-055-
     502>504.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ501-505-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ531>534-
     537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     535-536-538-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GMS
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...GMS/CEB
MARINE...GMS/CEB






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191824
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
224 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRATOCU RESIDUAL FROM NWLY LAKE FLOW WILL DECR SLOWLY IN CVRG
THRU THE AFTN. BY LATE THIS AFTN...LOW CLDS WILL BE GONE WHILE
MID- AND UPR-LVL CLDS WILL INCR AHEAD OF APRCHG SHRTWV TROF THAT
WILL DIG INTO GRTLKS TNGT.

WIND ALREADY HAS BCM LGT AND WILL BACK TO SWLY IN RESPONSE TO
APRCHG TROF. WITH LGT WIND...COOL TEMPS AND LMTD THICKNESS TO CI
IMPINGING ON SRN ZONES...FROST WILL BE PSBL IN FAR SRN ZONES...
WHERE CLD CVR WILL BE SLOWEST TO ARRIVE. FROST ADZY WAS ISSUED FOR
MARION/MONONGALIA/WETZEL CTYS FOR LATE TNGT. ELSEWHERE...GROWING
SEASON IS OVER OR MINIMA WILL RMN TOO ELEVATED FOR FROST.

PREV SHIFT TRENDED SLOWER WITH PCPN ONSET ON MON...WHICH SEEMS
LIKE A GOOD CHOICE. THIS TREND WAS CONTD TDA...WITH PCPN ONLY XPCD
TO REACH NWRN ZONES BY LATE MON AFTN. TROF AXIS WILL CROSS MON
NGT...AND PCPN WILL SHIFT EWD THRU EARLY TUE MRNG. BY END OF MON
NGT PD...PCPN SHOULD BE MAINLY FOCUSED IN FAR ERN ZONES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH UPR TROF AND ALONG LAKESHORES AS NWLY FLOW BEHIND
CDFNT INCRS CVRG OF LAKE-ENHANCED SHWRS. PRIMARY ADJUSTMENT THESE
PDS WAS TO INCR POPS TO CATEGORICAL MON NGT AND INTRODUCE SHARPER
PCPN GRADIENT BY TUE MRNG.

TEMPS ON MON XPCD TO CLIMB INTO MID-UPR 50S AS FILTERED SUNSHINE
XPCD IN WARM SECTOR OWING TO SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PCPN. KRAMAR

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BRIEF MORNING LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY MORNING WILL
QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY MORE INSTABILITY AND WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY BY AFTERNOON AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVES DOWN
THE BACK SIDE AND INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGER WAVE RESIDENT TROUGH
OVER THE REGION. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES FALL FAIRLY WELL BY
AFTERNOON...IN FACT EVEN ENOUGH THAT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY CAN
BE NOTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. WHILE VERY SKINNY CAPE DOES MANAGE TO
WORK ITS WAY UP ABOVE THE -20C LEVEL...TOTAL CAPE VALUES OF
ROUGHLY 100 J/KG AND MINIMAL SHEAR MAKE ADDING THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE FORECAST SEEM LIKE OVERKILL. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
THERE MAY BE A ONE STRIKE WONDER AROUND.

UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW THEN CONTINUES AS THE UPPER LOW CLOSES
OFF...CUTS OFF...AND SLOWLY...BEGRUDINGLY...MEANDERS EASTWARD FROM
THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS ALLOWS FOR A PAINSTAKINGLY SLOW
WIND DOWN IN POPS AND AN EVEN SLOWER CLEAR OUT OF THE SKIES GOING
TOWARD THE LONGER TERM. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SYSTEM FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A
PERIOD OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS XPCD THRU LATE TNGT AS INVERSION HEIGHT LWRS AND AIDS IN
DISSIPATION OF STRATOCU DECK AT 3-4KFT. CIGS 3-4KFT XPCD TO DVLP
AGAIN MON MRNG AS SHRTWV TROF DIGS INTO GRTLKS RGN AND HEIGHTS
FALL. RAIN SHWRS XPCD TO IMPACT ALL TERMINALS AS THEY MOVE INTO
THE RGN FROM THE NW...AT KFKL BY LATE MON AFTN AND ACRS RMNDR OF
TERMINALS MON NGT. PCPN SHOULD BGN TO CLR BY EARLY TUE MRNG. VSBY
RESTRICTIONS TO AT LEAST MVFR /IF NOT IFR/ CAN BE ANTICIPATED IN
PCPN.

.AVIATION /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS XPCD THRU MID-WEEK AS UPR TROFG CONTS TO
IMPACT THE UPR OH RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ012-021-022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KRAMAR








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 191749
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
149 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TODAY...CENTERING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST TFOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING SATELLITE/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FEATURE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS PUSHING OFFSHORE. NW FLOW ALOFT AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A PLEASANT, ALBEIT
COOL FALL AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. COOL/DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TODAY, WITH H85 TEMPS
AROUND 6C AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
60S...WHICH IS ~1 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL. 10 TO 15 MPH NW WINDS AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL MIX DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW-MID 30S THIS
AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER TO JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE THIS EVENING...BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN
EXCEPTIONAL RADIATION COOLING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S
INLAND (OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS) AROUND MIDNIGHT. UPPER JET STREAK
ACROSS THE NE STATES AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME HIGH CIRRUS OVER THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO IMPACT COOLING. NAM/MET
GUIDANCE INDICATING WARMER TEMPS COMPERED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND
OTHER STAT GUIDANCE. THIS DUE TO LIGHT RETURN FLOW/WAA LATE
TONIGHT. TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD MAV GUIDANCE AS ANY WAA WILL
LIKELY ARRIVE TOO LATE TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING INTO THE MID
30S. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE. NO HEADLINES PLANNED AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO. TEMPS ALONG THE COAST
WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE MONDAY AS SLY RETURN FLOW/WAA
COMMENCES. AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE
REGION TUES AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE AS THE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACH. INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE UPPER
60S.

LOW PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION MON NIGHT AS
THE CLIPPER FRONT REACHES THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS.
MEANWHILE...INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE SE AND MID-ATLANTIC
COASTS. STRONG UPPER VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING UPPER LOW
DROPS INTO THE LOCAL AREA TUES...ENHANCING UVM ALONG THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH PWATS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 1 INCH. MODELS LESS THAN EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP FALLING OVER
THE LOCAL AREA TUES. BASED ON THE VORT MAX AND INCREASING HEIGHTS
ALOFT...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS TUES...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH TUES AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE AND CLOSEST TO THE SFC LOW. ALSO MAINTAIN CHANCE
POPS ALONG THE COAST THANKS TO THE INVERTED TROUGH. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TUES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF AND SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUE NIGHT/WED...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATE THURS INTO FRI. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY TO
REFLECT A 25-40% CHC OF SHOWERS TUE NIGHT/WED (HIGHEST NE
ZONES)...TAPERING TO 20-30% THURSDAY MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
SHORE/COASTAL WATERS. DRY WX RETURNS ALL AREAS FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM AND LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW (WED/THU) SHOULD RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS WED/THU
MID/UPR 50S NW TO LOW/MID 60S SE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE IN
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. FRI/SAT`S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
60S ALL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OCNL BKN CIGS 4-5 KFT INVOF CST THROUGH ABT 20-22Z/20 ALG W/ GUSTY
NNW WNDS TO 20-25 KT. OTRW VFR THROUGH MON NGT/EARLY TUE. WNDS
BECOME LGT/VRB OR CALM BY MID EVE...RMNS SO INTO EARLY MRNG HRS
MON. SSW WNDS DEVELOP DURG MON...SPEEDS RMNG AOB 15 KT.

NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUE THEN LINGERS
OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WED ALONG WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS. WNDS FROM THE NW ARE
EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESP CLOSER TO THE
CST.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES IN EFFECT ALL ZONES...N/NW WINDS AVG 20-25 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KT (15-20 KT GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT ON THE RIVERS AND
SOUND). FLOW IS SOMEWHAT OFFSHORE SO SEAS WILL GENLY REMAIN CAPPED
AT AROUND 6 FT AT 20 NM OFF THE COAST (4 FT NEARSHORE). SFC HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ESE FROM THE OH VALLEY THIS
AFTN...ALLOWING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO SUBSIDE.
SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP HEADLINES BY EARLY AFTN FOR THE RIVERS...BY
LATE AFTN FOR THE BAY/SOUND...AND SOMETIME THIS EVENING FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS (TENDING TO PERSIST THE LONGEST OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS).

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...ALLOWING SUB- SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WHILE THERE
REMAINS SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE WATERS TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...ACCOMPANIED BY CAA AND MORE
SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE COAST THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK...WHICH MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS. FLOW WOULD AGAIN BE OFFSHORE FROM THE NW SO SEAS WOULD
TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT BREEZY/DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE TODAY. DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 30S THIS AFTERNOON...CREATING
MIN RH VALUES IN THE 30-35% RANGE. THIS IN TANDEM WITH DRYING FUELS
AND N-NW WINDS AROUND 15 MPH GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH MAY INCREASE
THE WILDFIRE DANGER.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ654-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...LKB
FIRE WEATHER...















000
FXUS61 KAKQ 191749
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
149 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TODAY...CENTERING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST TFOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING SATELLITE/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FEATURE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS PUSHING OFFSHORE. NW FLOW ALOFT AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A PLEASANT, ALBEIT
COOL FALL AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. COOL/DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TODAY, WITH H85 TEMPS
AROUND 6C AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
60S...WHICH IS ~1 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL. 10 TO 15 MPH NW WINDS AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL MIX DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW-MID 30S THIS
AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER TO JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE THIS EVENING...BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN
EXCEPTIONAL RADIATION COOLING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S
INLAND (OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS) AROUND MIDNIGHT. UPPER JET STREAK
ACROSS THE NE STATES AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME HIGH CIRRUS OVER THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO IMPACT COOLING. NAM/MET
GUIDANCE INDICATING WARMER TEMPS COMPERED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND
OTHER STAT GUIDANCE. THIS DUE TO LIGHT RETURN FLOW/WAA LATE
TONIGHT. TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD MAV GUIDANCE AS ANY WAA WILL
LIKELY ARRIVE TOO LATE TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING INTO THE MID
30S. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE. NO HEADLINES PLANNED AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO. TEMPS ALONG THE COAST
WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE MONDAY AS SLY RETURN FLOW/WAA
COMMENCES. AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE
REGION TUES AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE AS THE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACH. INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE UPPER
60S.

LOW PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION MON NIGHT AS
THE CLIPPER FRONT REACHES THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS.
MEANWHILE...INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE SE AND MID-ATLANTIC
COASTS. STRONG UPPER VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING UPPER LOW
DROPS INTO THE LOCAL AREA TUES...ENHANCING UVM ALONG THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH PWATS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 1 INCH. MODELS LESS THAN EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP FALLING OVER
THE LOCAL AREA TUES. BASED ON THE VORT MAX AND INCREASING HEIGHTS
ALOFT...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS TUES...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH TUES AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE AND CLOSEST TO THE SFC LOW. ALSO MAINTAIN CHANCE
POPS ALONG THE COAST THANKS TO THE INVERTED TROUGH. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TUES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF AND SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUE NIGHT/WED...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATE THURS INTO FRI. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY TO
REFLECT A 25-40% CHC OF SHOWERS TUE NIGHT/WED (HIGHEST NE
ZONES)...TAPERING TO 20-30% THURSDAY MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
SHORE/COASTAL WATERS. DRY WX RETURNS ALL AREAS FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM AND LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW (WED/THU) SHOULD RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS WED/THU
MID/UPR 50S NW TO LOW/MID 60S SE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE IN
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. FRI/SAT`S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
60S ALL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OCNL BKN CIGS 4-5 KFT INVOF CST THROUGH ABT 20-22Z/20 ALG W/ GUSTY
NNW WNDS TO 20-25 KT. OTRW VFR THROUGH MON NGT/EARLY TUE. WNDS
BECOME LGT/VRB OR CALM BY MID EVE...RMNS SO INTO EARLY MRNG HRS
MON. SSW WNDS DEVELOP DURG MON...SPEEDS RMNG AOB 15 KT.

NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUE THEN LINGERS
OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WED ALONG WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS. WNDS FROM THE NW ARE
EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESP CLOSER TO THE
CST.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES IN EFFECT ALL ZONES...N/NW WINDS AVG 20-25 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KT (15-20 KT GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT ON THE RIVERS AND
SOUND). FLOW IS SOMEWHAT OFFSHORE SO SEAS WILL GENLY REMAIN CAPPED
AT AROUND 6 FT AT 20 NM OFF THE COAST (4 FT NEARSHORE). SFC HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ESE FROM THE OH VALLEY THIS
AFTN...ALLOWING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO SUBSIDE.
SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP HEADLINES BY EARLY AFTN FOR THE RIVERS...BY
LATE AFTN FOR THE BAY/SOUND...AND SOMETIME THIS EVENING FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS (TENDING TO PERSIST THE LONGEST OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS).

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...ALLOWING SUB- SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WHILE THERE
REMAINS SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE WATERS TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...ACCOMPANIED BY CAA AND MORE
SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE COAST THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK...WHICH MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS. FLOW WOULD AGAIN BE OFFSHORE FROM THE NW SO SEAS WOULD
TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT BREEZY/DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE TODAY. DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 30S THIS AFTERNOON...CREATING
MIN RH VALUES IN THE 30-35% RANGE. THIS IN TANDEM WITH DRYING FUELS
AND N-NW WINDS AROUND 15 MPH GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH MAY INCREASE
THE WILDFIRE DANGER.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ654-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...LKB
FIRE WEATHER...















000
FXUS61 KAKQ 191749
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
149 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TODAY...CENTERING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST TFOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING SATELLITE/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FEATURE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS PUSHING OFFSHORE. NW FLOW ALOFT AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A PLEASANT, ALBEIT
COOL FALL AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. COOL/DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TODAY, WITH H85 TEMPS
AROUND 6C AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
60S...WHICH IS ~1 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL. 10 TO 15 MPH NW WINDS AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL MIX DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW-MID 30S THIS
AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER TO JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE THIS EVENING...BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN
EXCEPTIONAL RADIATION COOLING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S
INLAND (OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS) AROUND MIDNIGHT. UPPER JET STREAK
ACROSS THE NE STATES AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME HIGH CIRRUS OVER THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO IMPACT COOLING. NAM/MET
GUIDANCE INDICATING WARMER TEMPS COMPERED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND
OTHER STAT GUIDANCE. THIS DUE TO LIGHT RETURN FLOW/WAA LATE
TONIGHT. TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD MAV GUIDANCE AS ANY WAA WILL
LIKELY ARRIVE TOO LATE TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING INTO THE MID
30S. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE. NO HEADLINES PLANNED AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO. TEMPS ALONG THE COAST
WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE MONDAY AS SLY RETURN FLOW/WAA
COMMENCES. AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE
REGION TUES AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE AS THE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACH. INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE UPPER
60S.

LOW PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION MON NIGHT AS
THE CLIPPER FRONT REACHES THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS.
MEANWHILE...INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE SE AND MID-ATLANTIC
COASTS. STRONG UPPER VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING UPPER LOW
DROPS INTO THE LOCAL AREA TUES...ENHANCING UVM ALONG THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH PWATS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 1 INCH. MODELS LESS THAN EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP FALLING OVER
THE LOCAL AREA TUES. BASED ON THE VORT MAX AND INCREASING HEIGHTS
ALOFT...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS TUES...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH TUES AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE AND CLOSEST TO THE SFC LOW. ALSO MAINTAIN CHANCE
POPS ALONG THE COAST THANKS TO THE INVERTED TROUGH. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TUES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF AND SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUE NIGHT/WED...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATE THURS INTO FRI. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY TO
REFLECT A 25-40% CHC OF SHOWERS TUE NIGHT/WED (HIGHEST NE
ZONES)...TAPERING TO 20-30% THURSDAY MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
SHORE/COASTAL WATERS. DRY WX RETURNS ALL AREAS FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM AND LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW (WED/THU) SHOULD RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS WED/THU
MID/UPR 50S NW TO LOW/MID 60S SE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE IN
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. FRI/SAT`S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
60S ALL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OCNL BKN CIGS 4-5 KFT INVOF CST THROUGH ABT 20-22Z/20 ALG W/ GUSTY
NNW WNDS TO 20-25 KT. OTRW VFR THROUGH MON NGT/EARLY TUE. WNDS
BECOME LGT/VRB OR CALM BY MID EVE...RMNS SO INTO EARLY MRNG HRS
MON. SSW WNDS DEVELOP DURG MON...SPEEDS RMNG AOB 15 KT.

NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUE THEN LINGERS
OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WED ALONG WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS. WNDS FROM THE NW ARE
EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESP CLOSER TO THE
CST.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES IN EFFECT ALL ZONES...N/NW WINDS AVG 20-25 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KT (15-20 KT GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT ON THE RIVERS AND
SOUND). FLOW IS SOMEWHAT OFFSHORE SO SEAS WILL GENLY REMAIN CAPPED
AT AROUND 6 FT AT 20 NM OFF THE COAST (4 FT NEARSHORE). SFC HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ESE FROM THE OH VALLEY THIS
AFTN...ALLOWING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO SUBSIDE.
SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP HEADLINES BY EARLY AFTN FOR THE RIVERS...BY
LATE AFTN FOR THE BAY/SOUND...AND SOMETIME THIS EVENING FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS (TENDING TO PERSIST THE LONGEST OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS).

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...ALLOWING SUB- SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WHILE THERE
REMAINS SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE WATERS TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...ACCOMPANIED BY CAA AND MORE
SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE COAST THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK...WHICH MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS. FLOW WOULD AGAIN BE OFFSHORE FROM THE NW SO SEAS WOULD
TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT BREEZY/DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE TODAY. DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 30S THIS AFTERNOON...CREATING
MIN RH VALUES IN THE 30-35% RANGE. THIS IN TANDEM WITH DRYING FUELS
AND N-NW WINDS AROUND 15 MPH GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH MAY INCREASE
THE WILDFIRE DANGER.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ654-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...LKB
FIRE WEATHER...















000
FXUS61 KAKQ 191749
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
149 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TODAY...CENTERING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST TFOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING SATELLITE/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FEATURE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS PUSHING OFFSHORE. NW FLOW ALOFT AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A PLEASANT, ALBEIT
COOL FALL AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. COOL/DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TODAY, WITH H85 TEMPS
AROUND 6C AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
60S...WHICH IS ~1 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL. 10 TO 15 MPH NW WINDS AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL MIX DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW-MID 30S THIS
AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER TO JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE THIS EVENING...BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN
EXCEPTIONAL RADIATION COOLING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S
INLAND (OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS) AROUND MIDNIGHT. UPPER JET STREAK
ACROSS THE NE STATES AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME HIGH CIRRUS OVER THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO IMPACT COOLING. NAM/MET
GUIDANCE INDICATING WARMER TEMPS COMPERED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND
OTHER STAT GUIDANCE. THIS DUE TO LIGHT RETURN FLOW/WAA LATE
TONIGHT. TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD MAV GUIDANCE AS ANY WAA WILL
LIKELY ARRIVE TOO LATE TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING INTO THE MID
30S. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE. NO HEADLINES PLANNED AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO. TEMPS ALONG THE COAST
WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE MONDAY AS SLY RETURN FLOW/WAA
COMMENCES. AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE
REGION TUES AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE AS THE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACH. INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE UPPER
60S.

LOW PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION MON NIGHT AS
THE CLIPPER FRONT REACHES THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS.
MEANWHILE...INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE SE AND MID-ATLANTIC
COASTS. STRONG UPPER VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING UPPER LOW
DROPS INTO THE LOCAL AREA TUES...ENHANCING UVM ALONG THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH PWATS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 1 INCH. MODELS LESS THAN EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP FALLING OVER
THE LOCAL AREA TUES. BASED ON THE VORT MAX AND INCREASING HEIGHTS
ALOFT...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS TUES...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH TUES AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE AND CLOSEST TO THE SFC LOW. ALSO MAINTAIN CHANCE
POPS ALONG THE COAST THANKS TO THE INVERTED TROUGH. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TUES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF AND SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUE NIGHT/WED...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATE THURS INTO FRI. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY TO
REFLECT A 25-40% CHC OF SHOWERS TUE NIGHT/WED (HIGHEST NE
ZONES)...TAPERING TO 20-30% THURSDAY MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
SHORE/COASTAL WATERS. DRY WX RETURNS ALL AREAS FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM AND LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW (WED/THU) SHOULD RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS WED/THU
MID/UPR 50S NW TO LOW/MID 60S SE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE IN
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. FRI/SAT`S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
60S ALL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OCNL BKN CIGS 4-5 KFT INVOF CST THROUGH ABT 20-22Z/20 ALG W/ GUSTY
NNW WNDS TO 20-25 KT. OTRW VFR THROUGH MON NGT/EARLY TUE. WNDS
BECOME LGT/VRB OR CALM BY MID EVE...RMNS SO INTO EARLY MRNG HRS
MON. SSW WNDS DEVELOP DURG MON...SPEEDS RMNG AOB 15 KT.

NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUE THEN LINGERS
OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WED ALONG WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS. WNDS FROM THE NW ARE
EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESP CLOSER TO THE
CST.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES IN EFFECT ALL ZONES...N/NW WINDS AVG 20-25 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KT (15-20 KT GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT ON THE RIVERS AND
SOUND). FLOW IS SOMEWHAT OFFSHORE SO SEAS WILL GENLY REMAIN CAPPED
AT AROUND 6 FT AT 20 NM OFF THE COAST (4 FT NEARSHORE). SFC HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ESE FROM THE OH VALLEY THIS
AFTN...ALLOWING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO SUBSIDE.
SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP HEADLINES BY EARLY AFTN FOR THE RIVERS...BY
LATE AFTN FOR THE BAY/SOUND...AND SOMETIME THIS EVENING FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS (TENDING TO PERSIST THE LONGEST OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS).

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...ALLOWING SUB- SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WHILE THERE
REMAINS SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE WATERS TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...ACCOMPANIED BY CAA AND MORE
SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE COAST THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK...WHICH MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS. FLOW WOULD AGAIN BE OFFSHORE FROM THE NW SO SEAS WOULD
TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT BREEZY/DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE TODAY. DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 30S THIS AFTERNOON...CREATING
MIN RH VALUES IN THE 30-35% RANGE. THIS IN TANDEM WITH DRYING FUELS
AND N-NW WINDS AROUND 15 MPH GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH MAY INCREASE
THE WILDFIRE DANGER.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ654-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...LKB
FIRE WEATHER...















000
FXUS61 KAKQ 191506
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1106 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TODAY...CENTERING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST TFOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING SATELLITE/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FEATURE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS PUSHING OFFSHORE. NW FLOW ALOFT AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A PLEASANT, ALBEIT
COOL FALL AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. COOL/DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TODAY, WITH H85 TEMPS
AROUND 6C AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
60S...WHICH IS ~1 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL. 10 TO 15 MPH NW WINDS AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL MIX DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW-MID 30S THIS
AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER TO JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE THIS EVENING...BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN
EXCEPTIONAL RADIATION COOLING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S
INLAND (OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS) AROUND MIDNIGHT. UPPER JET STREAK
ACROSS THE NE STATES AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME HIGH CIRRUS OVER THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO IMPACT COOLING. NAM/MET
GUIDANCE INDICATING WARMER TEMPS COMPERED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND
OTHER STAT GUIDANCE. THIS DUE TO LIGHT RETURN FLOW/WAA LATE
TONIGHT. TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD MAV GUIDANCE AS ANY WAA WILL
LIKELY ARRIVE TOO LATE TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING INTO THE MID
30S. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE. NO HEADLINES PLANNED AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO. TEMPS ALONG THE COAST
WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE MONDAY AS SLY RETURN FLOW/WAA
COMMENCES. AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE
REGION TUES AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE AS THE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACH. INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE UPPER
60S.

LOW PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION MON NIGHT AS
THE CLIPPER FRONT REACHES THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS.
MEANWHILE...INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE SE AND MID-ATLANTIC
COASTS. STRONG UPPER VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING UPPER LOW
DROPS INTO THE LOCAL AREA TUES...ENHANCING UVM ALONG THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH PWATS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 1 INCH. MODELS LESS THAN EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP FALLING OVER
THE LOCAL AREA TUES. BASED ON THE VORT MAX AND INCREASING HEIGHTS
ALOFT...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS TUES...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH TUES AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE AND CLOSEST TO THE SFC LOW. ALSO MAINTAIN CHANCE
POPS ALONG THE COAST THANKS TO THE INVERTED TROUGH. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TUES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF AND SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUE NIGHT/WED...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATE THURS INTO FRI. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY TO
REFLECT A 25-40% CHC OF SHOWERS TUE NIGHT/WED (HIGHEST NE
ZONES)...TAPERING TO 20-30% THURSDAY MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
SHORE/COASTAL WATERS. DRY WX RETURNS ALL AREAS FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM AND LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW (WED/THU) SHOULD RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS WED/THU
MID/UPR 50S NW TO LOW/MID 60S SE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE IN
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. FRI/SAT`S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
60S ALL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENLY BKN CIGS WITH BASES AROUND 6-8K FT WILL PERSIST THROUGH
12-15Z...FOLLOWED BY MAINLY SKC OR SCT CU THEREAFTER. EXPECT FAIRLY
GUSTY NW WINDS ONCE AGAIN TODAY...STRONGEST AT KSBY WHERE GUSTS TO
25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z (AVG CLOSER TO 20 KT ELSEWHERE).
CLEAR/LIGHT FLOW TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MON/MON NIGHT/EARLY
TUE. NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY THEN
LINGERS OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WED ALONG WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS. WINDS FROM THE NW
ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER
TO THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES IN EFFECT ALL ZONES...N/NW WINDS AVG 20-25 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KT (15-20 KT GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT ON THE RIVERS AND
SOUND). FLOW IS SOMEWHAT OFFSHORE SO SEAS WILL GENLY REMAIN CAPPED
AT AROUND 6 FT AT 20 NM OFF THE COAST (4 FT NEARSHORE). SFC HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ESE FROM THE OH VALLEY THIS
AFTN...ALLOWING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO SUBSIDE.
SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP HEADLINES BY EARLY AFTN FOR THE RIVERS...BY
LATE AFTN FOR THE BAY/SOUND...AND SOMETIME THIS EVENING FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS (TENDING TO PERSIST THE LONGEST OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS).

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...ALLOWING SUB- SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WHILE THERE
REMAINS SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE WATERS TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...ACCOMPANIED BY CAA AND MORE
SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE COAST THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK...WHICH MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS. FLOW WOULD AGAIN BE OFFSHORE FROM THE NW SO SEAS WOULD
TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT BREEZY/DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE TODAY. DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 30S THIS AFTERNOON...CREATING
MIN RH VALUES IN THE 30-35% RANGE. THIS IN TANDEM WITH DRYING FUELS
AND N-NW WINDS AROUND 15 MPH GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH MAY INCREASE
THE WILDFIRE DANGER.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ654-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB
FIRE WEATHER...









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 191506
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1106 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TODAY...CENTERING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST TFOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING SATELLITE/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FEATURE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS PUSHING OFFSHORE. NW FLOW ALOFT AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A PLEASANT, ALBEIT
COOL FALL AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. COOL/DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TODAY, WITH H85 TEMPS
AROUND 6C AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
60S...WHICH IS ~1 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL. 10 TO 15 MPH NW WINDS AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL MIX DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW-MID 30S THIS
AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER TO JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE THIS EVENING...BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN
EXCEPTIONAL RADIATION COOLING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S
INLAND (OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS) AROUND MIDNIGHT. UPPER JET STREAK
ACROSS THE NE STATES AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME HIGH CIRRUS OVER THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO IMPACT COOLING. NAM/MET
GUIDANCE INDICATING WARMER TEMPS COMPERED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND
OTHER STAT GUIDANCE. THIS DUE TO LIGHT RETURN FLOW/WAA LATE
TONIGHT. TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD MAV GUIDANCE AS ANY WAA WILL
LIKELY ARRIVE TOO LATE TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING INTO THE MID
30S. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE. NO HEADLINES PLANNED AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO. TEMPS ALONG THE COAST
WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE MONDAY AS SLY RETURN FLOW/WAA
COMMENCES. AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE
REGION TUES AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE AS THE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACH. INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE UPPER
60S.

LOW PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION MON NIGHT AS
THE CLIPPER FRONT REACHES THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS.
MEANWHILE...INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE SE AND MID-ATLANTIC
COASTS. STRONG UPPER VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING UPPER LOW
DROPS INTO THE LOCAL AREA TUES...ENHANCING UVM ALONG THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH PWATS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 1 INCH. MODELS LESS THAN EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP FALLING OVER
THE LOCAL AREA TUES. BASED ON THE VORT MAX AND INCREASING HEIGHTS
ALOFT...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS TUES...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH TUES AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE AND CLOSEST TO THE SFC LOW. ALSO MAINTAIN CHANCE
POPS ALONG THE COAST THANKS TO THE INVERTED TROUGH. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TUES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF AND SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUE NIGHT/WED...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATE THURS INTO FRI. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY TO
REFLECT A 25-40% CHC OF SHOWERS TUE NIGHT/WED (HIGHEST NE
ZONES)...TAPERING TO 20-30% THURSDAY MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
SHORE/COASTAL WATERS. DRY WX RETURNS ALL AREAS FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM AND LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW (WED/THU) SHOULD RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS WED/THU
MID/UPR 50S NW TO LOW/MID 60S SE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE IN
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. FRI/SAT`S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
60S ALL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENLY BKN CIGS WITH BASES AROUND 6-8K FT WILL PERSIST THROUGH
12-15Z...FOLLOWED BY MAINLY SKC OR SCT CU THEREAFTER. EXPECT FAIRLY
GUSTY NW WINDS ONCE AGAIN TODAY...STRONGEST AT KSBY WHERE GUSTS TO
25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z (AVG CLOSER TO 20 KT ELSEWHERE).
CLEAR/LIGHT FLOW TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MON/MON NIGHT/EARLY
TUE. NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY THEN
LINGERS OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WED ALONG WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS. WINDS FROM THE NW
ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER
TO THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES IN EFFECT ALL ZONES...N/NW WINDS AVG 20-25 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KT (15-20 KT GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT ON THE RIVERS AND
SOUND). FLOW IS SOMEWHAT OFFSHORE SO SEAS WILL GENLY REMAIN CAPPED
AT AROUND 6 FT AT 20 NM OFF THE COAST (4 FT NEARSHORE). SFC HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ESE FROM THE OH VALLEY THIS
AFTN...ALLOWING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO SUBSIDE.
SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP HEADLINES BY EARLY AFTN FOR THE RIVERS...BY
LATE AFTN FOR THE BAY/SOUND...AND SOMETIME THIS EVENING FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS (TENDING TO PERSIST THE LONGEST OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS).

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...ALLOWING SUB- SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WHILE THERE
REMAINS SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE WATERS TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...ACCOMPANIED BY CAA AND MORE
SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE COAST THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK...WHICH MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS. FLOW WOULD AGAIN BE OFFSHORE FROM THE NW SO SEAS WOULD
TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT BREEZY/DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE TODAY. DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 30S THIS AFTERNOON...CREATING
MIN RH VALUES IN THE 30-35% RANGE. THIS IN TANDEM WITH DRYING FUELS
AND N-NW WINDS AROUND 15 MPH GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH MAY INCREASE
THE WILDFIRE DANGER.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ654-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB
FIRE WEATHER...









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 191506
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1106 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TODAY...CENTERING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST TFOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING SATELLITE/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FEATURE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS PUSHING OFFSHORE. NW FLOW ALOFT AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A PLEASANT, ALBEIT
COOL FALL AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. COOL/DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TODAY, WITH H85 TEMPS
AROUND 6C AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
60S...WHICH IS ~1 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL. 10 TO 15 MPH NW WINDS AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL MIX DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW-MID 30S THIS
AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER TO JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE THIS EVENING...BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN
EXCEPTIONAL RADIATION COOLING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S
INLAND (OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS) AROUND MIDNIGHT. UPPER JET STREAK
ACROSS THE NE STATES AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME HIGH CIRRUS OVER THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO IMPACT COOLING. NAM/MET
GUIDANCE INDICATING WARMER TEMPS COMPERED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND
OTHER STAT GUIDANCE. THIS DUE TO LIGHT RETURN FLOW/WAA LATE
TONIGHT. TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD MAV GUIDANCE AS ANY WAA WILL
LIKELY ARRIVE TOO LATE TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING INTO THE MID
30S. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE. NO HEADLINES PLANNED AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO. TEMPS ALONG THE COAST
WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE MONDAY AS SLY RETURN FLOW/WAA
COMMENCES. AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE
REGION TUES AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE AS THE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACH. INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE UPPER
60S.

LOW PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION MON NIGHT AS
THE CLIPPER FRONT REACHES THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS.
MEANWHILE...INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE SE AND MID-ATLANTIC
COASTS. STRONG UPPER VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING UPPER LOW
DROPS INTO THE LOCAL AREA TUES...ENHANCING UVM ALONG THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH PWATS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 1 INCH. MODELS LESS THAN EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP FALLING OVER
THE LOCAL AREA TUES. BASED ON THE VORT MAX AND INCREASING HEIGHTS
ALOFT...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS TUES...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH TUES AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE AND CLOSEST TO THE SFC LOW. ALSO MAINTAIN CHANCE
POPS ALONG THE COAST THANKS TO THE INVERTED TROUGH. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TUES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF AND SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUE NIGHT/WED...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATE THURS INTO FRI. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY TO
REFLECT A 25-40% CHC OF SHOWERS TUE NIGHT/WED (HIGHEST NE
ZONES)...TAPERING TO 20-30% THURSDAY MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
SHORE/COASTAL WATERS. DRY WX RETURNS ALL AREAS FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM AND LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW (WED/THU) SHOULD RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS WED/THU
MID/UPR 50S NW TO LOW/MID 60S SE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE IN
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. FRI/SAT`S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
60S ALL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENLY BKN CIGS WITH BASES AROUND 6-8K FT WILL PERSIST THROUGH
12-15Z...FOLLOWED BY MAINLY SKC OR SCT CU THEREAFTER. EXPECT FAIRLY
GUSTY NW WINDS ONCE AGAIN TODAY...STRONGEST AT KSBY WHERE GUSTS TO
25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z (AVG CLOSER TO 20 KT ELSEWHERE).
CLEAR/LIGHT FLOW TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MON/MON NIGHT/EARLY
TUE. NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY THEN
LINGERS OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WED ALONG WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS. WINDS FROM THE NW
ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER
TO THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES IN EFFECT ALL ZONES...N/NW WINDS AVG 20-25 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KT (15-20 KT GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT ON THE RIVERS AND
SOUND). FLOW IS SOMEWHAT OFFSHORE SO SEAS WILL GENLY REMAIN CAPPED
AT AROUND 6 FT AT 20 NM OFF THE COAST (4 FT NEARSHORE). SFC HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ESE FROM THE OH VALLEY THIS
AFTN...ALLOWING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO SUBSIDE.
SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP HEADLINES BY EARLY AFTN FOR THE RIVERS...BY
LATE AFTN FOR THE BAY/SOUND...AND SOMETIME THIS EVENING FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS (TENDING TO PERSIST THE LONGEST OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS).

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...ALLOWING SUB- SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WHILE THERE
REMAINS SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE WATERS TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...ACCOMPANIED BY CAA AND MORE
SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE COAST THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK...WHICH MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS. FLOW WOULD AGAIN BE OFFSHORE FROM THE NW SO SEAS WOULD
TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT BREEZY/DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE TODAY. DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 30S THIS AFTERNOON...CREATING
MIN RH VALUES IN THE 30-35% RANGE. THIS IN TANDEM WITH DRYING FUELS
AND N-NW WINDS AROUND 15 MPH GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH MAY INCREASE
THE WILDFIRE DANGER.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ654-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB
FIRE WEATHER...









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 191506
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1106 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TODAY...CENTERING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST TFOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING SATELLITE/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FEATURE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS PUSHING OFFSHORE. NW FLOW ALOFT AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A PLEASANT, ALBEIT
COOL FALL AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. COOL/DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TODAY, WITH H85 TEMPS
AROUND 6C AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
60S...WHICH IS ~1 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL. 10 TO 15 MPH NW WINDS AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL MIX DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW-MID 30S THIS
AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER TO JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE THIS EVENING...BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN
EXCEPTIONAL RADIATION COOLING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S
INLAND (OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS) AROUND MIDNIGHT. UPPER JET STREAK
ACROSS THE NE STATES AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME HIGH CIRRUS OVER THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO IMPACT COOLING. NAM/MET
GUIDANCE INDICATING WARMER TEMPS COMPERED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND
OTHER STAT GUIDANCE. THIS DUE TO LIGHT RETURN FLOW/WAA LATE
TONIGHT. TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD MAV GUIDANCE AS ANY WAA WILL
LIKELY ARRIVE TOO LATE TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING INTO THE MID
30S. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE. NO HEADLINES PLANNED AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO. TEMPS ALONG THE COAST
WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE MONDAY AS SLY RETURN FLOW/WAA
COMMENCES. AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE
REGION TUES AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE AS THE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACH. INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE UPPER
60S.

LOW PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION MON NIGHT AS
THE CLIPPER FRONT REACHES THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS.
MEANWHILE...INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE SE AND MID-ATLANTIC
COASTS. STRONG UPPER VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING UPPER LOW
DROPS INTO THE LOCAL AREA TUES...ENHANCING UVM ALONG THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH PWATS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 1 INCH. MODELS LESS THAN EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP FALLING OVER
THE LOCAL AREA TUES. BASED ON THE VORT MAX AND INCREASING HEIGHTS
ALOFT...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS TUES...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH TUES AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE AND CLOSEST TO THE SFC LOW. ALSO MAINTAIN CHANCE
POPS ALONG THE COAST THANKS TO THE INVERTED TROUGH. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TUES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF AND SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUE NIGHT/WED...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATE THURS INTO FRI. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY TO
REFLECT A 25-40% CHC OF SHOWERS TUE NIGHT/WED (HIGHEST NE
ZONES)...TAPERING TO 20-30% THURSDAY MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
SHORE/COASTAL WATERS. DRY WX RETURNS ALL AREAS FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM AND LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW (WED/THU) SHOULD RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS WED/THU
MID/UPR 50S NW TO LOW/MID 60S SE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE IN
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. FRI/SAT`S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
60S ALL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENLY BKN CIGS WITH BASES AROUND 6-8K FT WILL PERSIST THROUGH
12-15Z...FOLLOWED BY MAINLY SKC OR SCT CU THEREAFTER. EXPECT FAIRLY
GUSTY NW WINDS ONCE AGAIN TODAY...STRONGEST AT KSBY WHERE GUSTS TO
25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z (AVG CLOSER TO 20 KT ELSEWHERE).
CLEAR/LIGHT FLOW TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MON/MON NIGHT/EARLY
TUE. NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY THEN
LINGERS OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WED ALONG WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS. WINDS FROM THE NW
ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER
TO THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES IN EFFECT ALL ZONES...N/NW WINDS AVG 20-25 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KT (15-20 KT GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT ON THE RIVERS AND
SOUND). FLOW IS SOMEWHAT OFFSHORE SO SEAS WILL GENLY REMAIN CAPPED
AT AROUND 6 FT AT 20 NM OFF THE COAST (4 FT NEARSHORE). SFC HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ESE FROM THE OH VALLEY THIS
AFTN...ALLOWING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO SUBSIDE.
SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP HEADLINES BY EARLY AFTN FOR THE RIVERS...BY
LATE AFTN FOR THE BAY/SOUND...AND SOMETIME THIS EVENING FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS (TENDING TO PERSIST THE LONGEST OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS).

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...ALLOWING SUB- SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WHILE THERE
REMAINS SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE WATERS TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...ACCOMPANIED BY CAA AND MORE
SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE COAST THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK...WHICH MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS. FLOW WOULD AGAIN BE OFFSHORE FROM THE NW SO SEAS WOULD
TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT BREEZY/DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE TODAY. DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 30S THIS AFTERNOON...CREATING
MIN RH VALUES IN THE 30-35% RANGE. THIS IN TANDEM WITH DRYING FUELS
AND N-NW WINDS AROUND 15 MPH GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH MAY INCREASE
THE WILDFIRE DANGER.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ654-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB
FIRE WEATHER...









000
FXUS61 KPHI 191436
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1036 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY TODAY WILL MOVE
EAST AND CREST OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL
THEN MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE MOVING AWAY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE IN TERMS OF PUBLIC PRODUCTS.
ADJUSTED THE WINDS UP A BIT MORE AND ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER
SLIGHTLY TO INCLUDE MORE BREAKS EARLY ON. THE KATABATIC FLOW IS
STARTING TO ERODE THE STRATOCU, SO NO BIG CHANGES TO SKY COVERAGE.

OTHERWISE, THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER AT 500MB
WHILE A COMPROMISE OF BOTH THE WRF AND GFS WORKED BEST AT 850MB
AND 925MB.

IF ANYONE WONDERED WHERE OCTOBER WENT, ITS BACK TODAY. IT WILL
FEATURE A BLUSTERY FALL FEEL TO IT. ONE SHORT WAVE DOWN AND ONE TO
GO THIS MORNING AS THE LONG WAVE TROF CLEARS OUR CWA. CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAST SHORT WAVE IS NOW MOVING ACROSS OUR CWA AND
SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST BY ABOUT 13Z.

THERE IS STILL THE MATTER OF THE NW FLOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST SOME LAKE ENHANCED PCPN MIGHT JUST MAKE IT
INTO OUR POCONO CWA BEFORE DISSIPATING. WE CARRY A CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES EARLY THERE. AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES, THE FCST
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS AND THE CONVECTIVE TEMPS BECOME HARDER
TO REACH. THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING NORTH UNTIL THIS COMES TO FRUITION. LESS CLOUDINESS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF OUR CWA. TEMPS HAVE
FOUND A WAY TO OUTDO GUIDANCE AND WHILE LOCAL PROCEDURES SUGGEST
GOING LOWER, WE KEPT CONTINUITY. IT WILL BE BREEZY/BLUSTERY TODAY,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MID DAY HOURS WHEN MIXING SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED.
PEAK GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH ARE LIKELY. IF THIS WERE HALLOWEEN,
THE GREAT PUMPKIN WOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM GETTING AIRBORNE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF OUR
CWA NORTH OF DELMARVA EXCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE PHILADELPHIA AREA.

BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF THE 925MB AND 850MB INITIALIZATION, WE USED
A STRAIGHT STAT GUIDANCE BLEND FOR MINS. WHERE THIS GAVE US
PREDOMINATE MINS OF FREEZING OR LESS IN THE COUNTIES, WE WENT WITH
FREEZE WARNINGS. THE NJ PINE BARRENS FIND A WAY TO RADIATE LIKE THE
BEST OF THEM. HERE WE WENT BELOW STAT GUIDANCE FOR THE FREEZE
WARNING. THE FROST ADVISORY MAINLY SURROUNDS THESE COLDER SPOTS AND
MOST LIKELY TO COME TO FRUITION IN THE MORE RURAL LOW LYING AREAS OF
THOSE COUNTIES INCLUDED. IN DELMARVA, DEW POINTS ARE PREDICTED TO BE
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS AND CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IS TOO LOW AT THIS
TIME. WE WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF PATCHY FROST IN THE AFD.

WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE QUICKLY TONIGHT AND TEMPS DROP LIKE A ROCK
DURING THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT A JET STREAK IS PREDICTED TO PASS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA WITH CIRRUS LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING. THERE IS RIDGING PREDICTED ALOFT AND NO PREDICTED OMEGA
AT THE SUB CIRRUS LEVEL. THE COMBINATION LED TO OUR DECISION NORTH
THAT THE CIRRUS MAY NOT BE THICK ENOUGH TO HOLD TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING.

AS WE MOVE FARTHER SOUTH, THE ENTRANCE REGION TO THAT JET STREAK
ARRIVES LATER AT NIGHT WITH LESS MOISTURE AND LESS TIME TO PREVENT
FROST/FREEZING TEMPS FROM OCCURRING. THIS IS ALSO WHY DELMARVA WILL
BE LOOKED CLOSELY TODAY AS THEY SHOULD HAVE LITTLE CIRRUS OVERNIGHT.
FAR FAR NORTH MIGHT BE SAVED BY THE CIRRUS (CONFIDENCE TOO LOW ABOUT
THAT TO NOT ISSUE A WARNING). BETWEEN THERE SHOULD BE A SWEET SPOT
WHERE DEW POINTS ARE LOW ENOUGH AND THE CIRRUS ARRIVES TOO LATE.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE LEHIGH AND RARITAN VALLEYS.

THIS IS RATHER LATE FOR A FREEZE OR A WIDESPREAD FROST (THERE WAS
SOME FROST INTO THE PHL NW SUBURBS EARLIER THIS MONTH) TO AFFECT OUR
CWA. THE PLUS SIDE IS THAT IF PROTECTIVE MEASURES SUCCEED TONIGHT,
FREEZING OR FROSTY CONDITIONS ARE NOT ON TAP FOR A WHILE.
WE BROUGHT IN OUR MEYER LEMON TREE INDOORS YESTERDAY ANYWAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CRESTING OVER THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING BEFORE MOVING EAST. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 50S NORTH AND MID 50S OT LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.

MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND A DEEPENING
H5 LOW WILL BE WEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A
RATHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS
FIRST FEW DAYS WILL BE SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.
SLGT CHC POPS MON NIGHT WILL INCREASE TO HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS BY
TUE NIGHT. HIGHS TUE WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW/MID 60S NORTH AND
MID/UPPER 60S SOUTH.

WED THRU THU NIGHT...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH THE H5
LOW/TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA WED AND THE SFC LOW JUST AHEAD OF IT.
FREQUENT PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WE HAVE KEPT THE POPS OFFERED BY WPC WHICH ARE MOSTLY HIGH
CHC CATEGORY WED THRU THU...THEN SLGT CHC THU NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MOSTLY BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

FRI THRU SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME ALONG WITH MILDER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY AND POINTS SOUTH/EAST WILL
REACH THE LOW 60S FRI/SAT WHILE READINGS ACROSS THE NORTH/WEST WILL
BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z TAFS WILL FEATURE NO BIG CHANGES. WE BUMPED UP WIND GUSTS
SLIGHTLY AND WILL BE ADDING A SOUTHWEST WIND CHANGE GROUP FOR KPHL
FOR MONDAY MORNING.

TODAY...VFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT AIRPORTS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF
PHILADELPHIA AND INTERSTATE 195 IN NJ. EVEN SOME MVFR CIGS EARLY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ELSEWHERE MAINLY JUST A SCATTERED DECK OF CU
CLOUDS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTINESS AROUND 25 KNOTS. STAT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE PEAK
WINDS SHOULD OCCUR BY ABOUT 18Z. CLEARING OR CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS TOWARD SUNSET.

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH LIGHTER NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST TERMINALS. ANY CLOUDS WILL BE AT CIRRUS
LEVEL AND MORE LIKELY LATER AT NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MON AND MON NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
     FEW SHOWERS MON NIGHT.
TUE THRU THU...UNSETTLED WITH CLOUDS AND FREQUENT SHOWERS. MOSTLY
     VFR BUT OCNL LOWER CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE ISSUED A SHORT FUSED GALE WARNING THROUGH 3PM FOR THE
DELAWARE BAY AND ADJACENT OCEAN ZONES. STARTING TO SEE WIND GUSTS
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 34 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND DUE TO THE
CONTINUED FUNNELING EFFECT OF THE WINDS DOWN THE BAY, FELT IT WAS
A GOOD IDEA TO HOIST THE FLAGS.

AFTER THE GALES COME DOWN THIS AFTERNOON WE WILL STILL HAVE THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN PLACE...THE END TIME FOR THE OCEAN REMAINS
UNCHANGED. IN ALL LOCATIONS, THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND SEAS AND SWELLS ON THE OCEAN SHOULD FALL
BELOW 5 FEET BY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
MON THRU TUE NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS. SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUE/TUE
NIGHT. WED THRU FRIDAY...SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WED AND LASTING
INTO FRI.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ054-055-061-
     062.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ060-101>106.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ020>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>019-023.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ430-431-454-
     455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/HEAVENER/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 191436
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1036 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY TODAY WILL MOVE
EAST AND CREST OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL
THEN MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE MOVING AWAY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE IN TERMS OF PUBLIC PRODUCTS.
ADJUSTED THE WINDS UP A BIT MORE AND ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER
SLIGHTLY TO INCLUDE MORE BREAKS EARLY ON. THE KATABATIC FLOW IS
STARTING TO ERODE THE STRATOCU, SO NO BIG CHANGES TO SKY COVERAGE.

OTHERWISE, THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER AT 500MB
WHILE A COMPROMISE OF BOTH THE WRF AND GFS WORKED BEST AT 850MB
AND 925MB.

IF ANYONE WONDERED WHERE OCTOBER WENT, ITS BACK TODAY. IT WILL
FEATURE A BLUSTERY FALL FEEL TO IT. ONE SHORT WAVE DOWN AND ONE TO
GO THIS MORNING AS THE LONG WAVE TROF CLEARS OUR CWA. CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAST SHORT WAVE IS NOW MOVING ACROSS OUR CWA AND
SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST BY ABOUT 13Z.

THERE IS STILL THE MATTER OF THE NW FLOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST SOME LAKE ENHANCED PCPN MIGHT JUST MAKE IT
INTO OUR POCONO CWA BEFORE DISSIPATING. WE CARRY A CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES EARLY THERE. AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES, THE FCST
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS AND THE CONVECTIVE TEMPS BECOME HARDER
TO REACH. THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING NORTH UNTIL THIS COMES TO FRUITION. LESS CLOUDINESS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF OUR CWA. TEMPS HAVE
FOUND A WAY TO OUTDO GUIDANCE AND WHILE LOCAL PROCEDURES SUGGEST
GOING LOWER, WE KEPT CONTINUITY. IT WILL BE BREEZY/BLUSTERY TODAY,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MID DAY HOURS WHEN MIXING SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED.
PEAK GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH ARE LIKELY. IF THIS WERE HALLOWEEN,
THE GREAT PUMPKIN WOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM GETTING AIRBORNE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF OUR
CWA NORTH OF DELMARVA EXCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE PHILADELPHIA AREA.

BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF THE 925MB AND 850MB INITIALIZATION, WE USED
A STRAIGHT STAT GUIDANCE BLEND FOR MINS. WHERE THIS GAVE US
PREDOMINATE MINS OF FREEZING OR LESS IN THE COUNTIES, WE WENT WITH
FREEZE WARNINGS. THE NJ PINE BARRENS FIND A WAY TO RADIATE LIKE THE
BEST OF THEM. HERE WE WENT BELOW STAT GUIDANCE FOR THE FREEZE
WARNING. THE FROST ADVISORY MAINLY SURROUNDS THESE COLDER SPOTS AND
MOST LIKELY TO COME TO FRUITION IN THE MORE RURAL LOW LYING AREAS OF
THOSE COUNTIES INCLUDED. IN DELMARVA, DEW POINTS ARE PREDICTED TO BE
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS AND CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IS TOO LOW AT THIS
TIME. WE WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF PATCHY FROST IN THE AFD.

WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE QUICKLY TONIGHT AND TEMPS DROP LIKE A ROCK
DURING THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT A JET STREAK IS PREDICTED TO PASS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA WITH CIRRUS LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING. THERE IS RIDGING PREDICTED ALOFT AND NO PREDICTED OMEGA
AT THE SUB CIRRUS LEVEL. THE COMBINATION LED TO OUR DECISION NORTH
THAT THE CIRRUS MAY NOT BE THICK ENOUGH TO HOLD TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING.

AS WE MOVE FARTHER SOUTH, THE ENTRANCE REGION TO THAT JET STREAK
ARRIVES LATER AT NIGHT WITH LESS MOISTURE AND LESS TIME TO PREVENT
FROST/FREEZING TEMPS FROM OCCURRING. THIS IS ALSO WHY DELMARVA WILL
BE LOOKED CLOSELY TODAY AS THEY SHOULD HAVE LITTLE CIRRUS OVERNIGHT.
FAR FAR NORTH MIGHT BE SAVED BY THE CIRRUS (CONFIDENCE TOO LOW ABOUT
THAT TO NOT ISSUE A WARNING). BETWEEN THERE SHOULD BE A SWEET SPOT
WHERE DEW POINTS ARE LOW ENOUGH AND THE CIRRUS ARRIVES TOO LATE.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE LEHIGH AND RARITAN VALLEYS.

THIS IS RATHER LATE FOR A FREEZE OR A WIDESPREAD FROST (THERE WAS
SOME FROST INTO THE PHL NW SUBURBS EARLIER THIS MONTH) TO AFFECT OUR
CWA. THE PLUS SIDE IS THAT IF PROTECTIVE MEASURES SUCCEED TONIGHT,
FREEZING OR FROSTY CONDITIONS ARE NOT ON TAP FOR A WHILE.
WE BROUGHT IN OUR MEYER LEMON TREE INDOORS YESTERDAY ANYWAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CRESTING OVER THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING BEFORE MOVING EAST. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 50S NORTH AND MID 50S OT LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.

MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND A DEEPENING
H5 LOW WILL BE WEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A
RATHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS
FIRST FEW DAYS WILL BE SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.
SLGT CHC POPS MON NIGHT WILL INCREASE TO HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS BY
TUE NIGHT. HIGHS TUE WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW/MID 60S NORTH AND
MID/UPPER 60S SOUTH.

WED THRU THU NIGHT...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH THE H5
LOW/TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA WED AND THE SFC LOW JUST AHEAD OF IT.
FREQUENT PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WE HAVE KEPT THE POPS OFFERED BY WPC WHICH ARE MOSTLY HIGH
CHC CATEGORY WED THRU THU...THEN SLGT CHC THU NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MOSTLY BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

FRI THRU SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME ALONG WITH MILDER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY AND POINTS SOUTH/EAST WILL
REACH THE LOW 60S FRI/SAT WHILE READINGS ACROSS THE NORTH/WEST WILL
BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z TAFS WILL FEATURE NO BIG CHANGES. WE BUMPED UP WIND GUSTS
SLIGHTLY AND WILL BE ADDING A SOUTHWEST WIND CHANGE GROUP FOR KPHL
FOR MONDAY MORNING.

TODAY...VFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT AIRPORTS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF
PHILADELPHIA AND INTERSTATE 195 IN NJ. EVEN SOME MVFR CIGS EARLY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ELSEWHERE MAINLY JUST A SCATTERED DECK OF CU
CLOUDS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTINESS AROUND 25 KNOTS. STAT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE PEAK
WINDS SHOULD OCCUR BY ABOUT 18Z. CLEARING OR CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS TOWARD SUNSET.

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH LIGHTER NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST TERMINALS. ANY CLOUDS WILL BE AT CIRRUS
LEVEL AND MORE LIKELY LATER AT NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MON AND MON NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
     FEW SHOWERS MON NIGHT.
TUE THRU THU...UNSETTLED WITH CLOUDS AND FREQUENT SHOWERS. MOSTLY
     VFR BUT OCNL LOWER CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE ISSUED A SHORT FUSED GALE WARNING THROUGH 3PM FOR THE
DELAWARE BAY AND ADJACENT OCEAN ZONES. STARTING TO SEE WIND GUSTS
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 34 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND DUE TO THE
CONTINUED FUNNELING EFFECT OF THE WINDS DOWN THE BAY, FELT IT WAS
A GOOD IDEA TO HOIST THE FLAGS.

AFTER THE GALES COME DOWN THIS AFTERNOON WE WILL STILL HAVE THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN PLACE...THE END TIME FOR THE OCEAN REMAINS
UNCHANGED. IN ALL LOCATIONS, THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND SEAS AND SWELLS ON THE OCEAN SHOULD FALL
BELOW 5 FEET BY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
MON THRU TUE NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS. SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUE/TUE
NIGHT. WED THRU FRIDAY...SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WED AND LASTING
INTO FRI.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ054-055-061-
     062.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ060-101>106.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ020>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>019-023.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ430-431-454-
     455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/HEAVENER/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 191422
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1022 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TODAY...CENTERING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY....LOCATING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR PLOTS DEPICT
SHORTWAVE/STRONG VORT LOBE TRACKING OVER THE ARE THIS EVENING.
LIGHT RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR OVER THE ERN VA PIEDMONT THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...OBS INDICATE NO PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND FROM
8K FT CLOUD DECK. DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S...FURTHER KEEPING PRECIP FROM REACHING THE SFC. WITH
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DECREASING IN CAA...EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN
SPRINKLES EARLY THIS MORNING.

VORT LOBE PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SKIES CLEAR...BECOMING SUNNY-
MOSTLY SUNNY BY MID-MORNING. HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES RECOVER SLIGHTLY
IN WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING OFFSHORE...BUT THE COOL/DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TODAY. H85 TEMPS
AROUND 6C AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
60S...AROUND 1 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL. 10 TO 15 MPH NW WINDS AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL MIX DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW-MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER TO JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE THIS EVENING...BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN
EXCEPTIONAL RADIATION COOLING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S
INLAND (OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS) AROUND MIDNIGHT. UPPER JET STREAK
ACROSS THE NE STATES AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME HIGH CIRRUS OVER THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO IMPACT COOLING. NAM/MET
GUIDANCE INDICATING WARMER TEMPS COMPERED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND
OTHER STAT GUIDANCE. THIS DUE TO LIGHT RETURN FLOW/WAA LATE
TONIGHT. TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD MAV GUIDANCE AS ANY WAA WILL
LIKELY ARRIVE TOO LATE TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING INTO THE MID
30S. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE. NO HEADLINES PLANNED AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO. TEMPS ALONG THE COAST
WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE MONDAY AS SLY RETURN FLOW/WAA
COMMENCES. AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE
REGION TUES AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE AS THE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACH. INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE UPPER
60S.

LOW PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION MON NIGHT AS
THE CLIPPER FRONT REACHES THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS.
MEANWHILE...INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE SE AND MID-ATLANTIC
COASTS. STRONG UPPER VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING UPPER LOW
DROPS INTO THE LOCAL AREA TUES...ENHANCING UVM ALONG THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH PWATS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 1 INCH. MODELS LESS THAN EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP FALLING OVER
THE LOCAL AREA TUES. BASED ON THE VORT MAX AND INCREASING HEIGHTS
ALOFT...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS TUES...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH TUES AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE AND CLOSEST TO THE SFC LOW. ALSO MAINTAIN CHANCE
POPS ALONG THE COAST THANKS TO THE INVERTED TROUGH. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TUES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF AND SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUE NIGHT/WED...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATE THURS INTO FRI. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY TO
REFLECT A 25-40% CHC OF SHOWERS TUE NIGHT/WED (HIGHEST NE
ZONES)...TAPERING TO 20-30% THURSDAY MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
SHORE/COASTAL WATERS. DRY WX RETURNS ALL AREAS FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM AND LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW (WED/THU) SHOULD RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS WED/THU
MID/UPR 50S NW TO LOW/MID 60S SE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE IN
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. FRI/SAT`S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
60S ALL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENLY BKN CIGS WITH BASES AROUND 6-8K FT WILL PERSIST THROUGH
12-15Z...FOLLOWED BY MAINLY SKC OR SCT CU THEREAFTER. EXPECT FAIRLY
GUSTY NW WINDS ONCE AGAIN TODAY...STRONGEST AT KSBY WHERE GUSTS TO
25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z (AVG CLOSER TO 20 KT ELSEWHERE).
CLEAR/LIGHT FLOW TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MON/MON NIGHT/EARLY
TUE. NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY THEN
LINGERS OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WED ALONG WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS. WINDS FROM THE NW
ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER
TO THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES IN EFFECT ALL ZONES...N/NW WINDS AVG 20-25 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KT (15-20 KT GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT ON THE RIVERS AND
SOUND). FLOW IS SOMEWHAT OFFSHORE SO SEAS WILL GENLY REMAIN CAPPED
AT AROUND 6 FT AT 20 NM OFF THE COAST (4 FT NEARSHORE). SFC HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ESE FROM THE OH VALLEY THIS
AFTN...ALLOWING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO SUBSIDE.
SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP HEADLINES BY EARLY AFTN FOR THE RIVERS...BY
LATE AFTN FOR THE BAY/SOUND...AND SOMETIME THIS EVENING FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS (TENDING TO PERSIST THE LONGEST OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS).

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...ALLOWING SUB- SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WHILE THERE
REMAINS SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE WATERS TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...ACCOMPANIED BY CAA AND MORE
SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE COAST THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK...WHICH MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS. FLOW WOULD AGAIN BE OFFSHORE FROM THE NW SO SEAS WOULD
TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT BREEZY/DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE TODAY. DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 30S THIS AFTERNOON...CREATING
MIN RH VALUES IN THE 30-35% RANGE. THIS IN TANDEM WITH DRYING FUELS
AND N-NW WINDS AROUND 15 MPH GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH MAY INCREASE
THE WILDFIRE DANGER.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ654-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB
FIRE WEATHER...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 191422
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1022 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TODAY...CENTERING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY....LOCATING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR PLOTS DEPICT
SHORTWAVE/STRONG VORT LOBE TRACKING OVER THE ARE THIS EVENING.
LIGHT RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR OVER THE ERN VA PIEDMONT THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...OBS INDICATE NO PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND FROM
8K FT CLOUD DECK. DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S...FURTHER KEEPING PRECIP FROM REACHING THE SFC. WITH
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DECREASING IN CAA...EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN
SPRINKLES EARLY THIS MORNING.

VORT LOBE PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SKIES CLEAR...BECOMING SUNNY-
MOSTLY SUNNY BY MID-MORNING. HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES RECOVER SLIGHTLY
IN WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING OFFSHORE...BUT THE COOL/DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TODAY. H85 TEMPS
AROUND 6C AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
60S...AROUND 1 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL. 10 TO 15 MPH NW WINDS AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL MIX DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW-MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER TO JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE THIS EVENING...BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN
EXCEPTIONAL RADIATION COOLING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S
INLAND (OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS) AROUND MIDNIGHT. UPPER JET STREAK
ACROSS THE NE STATES AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME HIGH CIRRUS OVER THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO IMPACT COOLING. NAM/MET
GUIDANCE INDICATING WARMER TEMPS COMPERED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND
OTHER STAT GUIDANCE. THIS DUE TO LIGHT RETURN FLOW/WAA LATE
TONIGHT. TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD MAV GUIDANCE AS ANY WAA WILL
LIKELY ARRIVE TOO LATE TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING INTO THE MID
30S. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE. NO HEADLINES PLANNED AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO. TEMPS ALONG THE COAST
WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE MONDAY AS SLY RETURN FLOW/WAA
COMMENCES. AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE
REGION TUES AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE AS THE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACH. INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE UPPER
60S.

LOW PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION MON NIGHT AS
THE CLIPPER FRONT REACHES THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS.
MEANWHILE...INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE SE AND MID-ATLANTIC
COASTS. STRONG UPPER VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING UPPER LOW
DROPS INTO THE LOCAL AREA TUES...ENHANCING UVM ALONG THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH PWATS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 1 INCH. MODELS LESS THAN EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP FALLING OVER
THE LOCAL AREA TUES. BASED ON THE VORT MAX AND INCREASING HEIGHTS
ALOFT...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS TUES...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH TUES AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE AND CLOSEST TO THE SFC LOW. ALSO MAINTAIN CHANCE
POPS ALONG THE COAST THANKS TO THE INVERTED TROUGH. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TUES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF AND SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUE NIGHT/WED...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATE THURS INTO FRI. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY TO
REFLECT A 25-40% CHC OF SHOWERS TUE NIGHT/WED (HIGHEST NE
ZONES)...TAPERING TO 20-30% THURSDAY MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
SHORE/COASTAL WATERS. DRY WX RETURNS ALL AREAS FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM AND LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW (WED/THU) SHOULD RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS WED/THU
MID/UPR 50S NW TO LOW/MID 60S SE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE IN
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. FRI/SAT`S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
60S ALL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENLY BKN CIGS WITH BASES AROUND 6-8K FT WILL PERSIST THROUGH
12-15Z...FOLLOWED BY MAINLY SKC OR SCT CU THEREAFTER. EXPECT FAIRLY
GUSTY NW WINDS ONCE AGAIN TODAY...STRONGEST AT KSBY WHERE GUSTS TO
25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z (AVG CLOSER TO 20 KT ELSEWHERE).
CLEAR/LIGHT FLOW TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MON/MON NIGHT/EARLY
TUE. NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY THEN
LINGERS OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WED ALONG WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS. WINDS FROM THE NW
ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER
TO THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES IN EFFECT ALL ZONES...N/NW WINDS AVG 20-25 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KT (15-20 KT GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT ON THE RIVERS AND
SOUND). FLOW IS SOMEWHAT OFFSHORE SO SEAS WILL GENLY REMAIN CAPPED
AT AROUND 6 FT AT 20 NM OFF THE COAST (4 FT NEARSHORE). SFC HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ESE FROM THE OH VALLEY THIS
AFTN...ALLOWING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO SUBSIDE.
SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP HEADLINES BY EARLY AFTN FOR THE RIVERS...BY
LATE AFTN FOR THE BAY/SOUND...AND SOMETIME THIS EVENING FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS (TENDING TO PERSIST THE LONGEST OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS).

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...ALLOWING SUB- SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WHILE THERE
REMAINS SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE WATERS TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...ACCOMPANIED BY CAA AND MORE
SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE COAST THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK...WHICH MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS. FLOW WOULD AGAIN BE OFFSHORE FROM THE NW SO SEAS WOULD
TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT BREEZY/DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE TODAY. DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 30S THIS AFTERNOON...CREATING
MIN RH VALUES IN THE 30-35% RANGE. THIS IN TANDEM WITH DRYING FUELS
AND N-NW WINDS AROUND 15 MPH GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH MAY INCREASE
THE WILDFIRE DANGER.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ654-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB
FIRE WEATHER...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 191422
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1022 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TODAY...CENTERING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY....LOCATING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR PLOTS DEPICT
SHORTWAVE/STRONG VORT LOBE TRACKING OVER THE ARE THIS EVENING.
LIGHT RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR OVER THE ERN VA PIEDMONT THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...OBS INDICATE NO PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND FROM
8K FT CLOUD DECK. DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S...FURTHER KEEPING PRECIP FROM REACHING THE SFC. WITH
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DECREASING IN CAA...EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN
SPRINKLES EARLY THIS MORNING.

VORT LOBE PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SKIES CLEAR...BECOMING SUNNY-
MOSTLY SUNNY BY MID-MORNING. HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES RECOVER SLIGHTLY
IN WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING OFFSHORE...BUT THE COOL/DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TODAY. H85 TEMPS
AROUND 6C AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
60S...AROUND 1 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL. 10 TO 15 MPH NW WINDS AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL MIX DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW-MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER TO JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE THIS EVENING...BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN
EXCEPTIONAL RADIATION COOLING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S
INLAND (OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS) AROUND MIDNIGHT. UPPER JET STREAK
ACROSS THE NE STATES AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME HIGH CIRRUS OVER THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO IMPACT COOLING. NAM/MET
GUIDANCE INDICATING WARMER TEMPS COMPERED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND
OTHER STAT GUIDANCE. THIS DUE TO LIGHT RETURN FLOW/WAA LATE
TONIGHT. TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD MAV GUIDANCE AS ANY WAA WILL
LIKELY ARRIVE TOO LATE TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING INTO THE MID
30S. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE. NO HEADLINES PLANNED AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO. TEMPS ALONG THE COAST
WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE MONDAY AS SLY RETURN FLOW/WAA
COMMENCES. AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE
REGION TUES AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE AS THE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACH. INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE UPPER
60S.

LOW PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION MON NIGHT AS
THE CLIPPER FRONT REACHES THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS.
MEANWHILE...INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE SE AND MID-ATLANTIC
COASTS. STRONG UPPER VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING UPPER LOW
DROPS INTO THE LOCAL AREA TUES...ENHANCING UVM ALONG THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH PWATS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 1 INCH. MODELS LESS THAN EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP FALLING OVER
THE LOCAL AREA TUES. BASED ON THE VORT MAX AND INCREASING HEIGHTS
ALOFT...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS TUES...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH TUES AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE AND CLOSEST TO THE SFC LOW. ALSO MAINTAIN CHANCE
POPS ALONG THE COAST THANKS TO THE INVERTED TROUGH. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TUES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF AND SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUE NIGHT/WED...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATE THURS INTO FRI. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY TO
REFLECT A 25-40% CHC OF SHOWERS TUE NIGHT/WED (HIGHEST NE
ZONES)...TAPERING TO 20-30% THURSDAY MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
SHORE/COASTAL WATERS. DRY WX RETURNS ALL AREAS FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM AND LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW (WED/THU) SHOULD RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS WED/THU
MID/UPR 50S NW TO LOW/MID 60S SE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE IN
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. FRI/SAT`S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
60S ALL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENLY BKN CIGS WITH BASES AROUND 6-8K FT WILL PERSIST THROUGH
12-15Z...FOLLOWED BY MAINLY SKC OR SCT CU THEREAFTER. EXPECT FAIRLY
GUSTY NW WINDS ONCE AGAIN TODAY...STRONGEST AT KSBY WHERE GUSTS TO
25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z (AVG CLOSER TO 20 KT ELSEWHERE).
CLEAR/LIGHT FLOW TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MON/MON NIGHT/EARLY
TUE. NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY THEN
LINGERS OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WED ALONG WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS. WINDS FROM THE NW
ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER
TO THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES IN EFFECT ALL ZONES...N/NW WINDS AVG 20-25 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KT (15-20 KT GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT ON THE RIVERS AND
SOUND). FLOW IS SOMEWHAT OFFSHORE SO SEAS WILL GENLY REMAIN CAPPED
AT AROUND 6 FT AT 20 NM OFF THE COAST (4 FT NEARSHORE). SFC HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ESE FROM THE OH VALLEY THIS
AFTN...ALLOWING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO SUBSIDE.
SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP HEADLINES BY EARLY AFTN FOR THE RIVERS...BY
LATE AFTN FOR THE BAY/SOUND...AND SOMETIME THIS EVENING FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS (TENDING TO PERSIST THE LONGEST OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS).

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...ALLOWING SUB- SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WHILE THERE
REMAINS SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE WATERS TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...ACCOMPANIED BY CAA AND MORE
SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE COAST THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK...WHICH MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS. FLOW WOULD AGAIN BE OFFSHORE FROM THE NW SO SEAS WOULD
TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT BREEZY/DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE TODAY. DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 30S THIS AFTERNOON...CREATING
MIN RH VALUES IN THE 30-35% RANGE. THIS IN TANDEM WITH DRYING FUELS
AND N-NW WINDS AROUND 15 MPH GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH MAY INCREASE
THE WILDFIRE DANGER.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ654-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB
FIRE WEATHER...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 191422
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1022 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TODAY...CENTERING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY....LOCATING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR PLOTS DEPICT
SHORTWAVE/STRONG VORT LOBE TRACKING OVER THE ARE THIS EVENING.
LIGHT RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR OVER THE ERN VA PIEDMONT THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...OBS INDICATE NO PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND FROM
8K FT CLOUD DECK. DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S...FURTHER KEEPING PRECIP FROM REACHING THE SFC. WITH
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DECREASING IN CAA...EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN
SPRINKLES EARLY THIS MORNING.

VORT LOBE PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SKIES CLEAR...BECOMING SUNNY-
MOSTLY SUNNY BY MID-MORNING. HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES RECOVER SLIGHTLY
IN WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING OFFSHORE...BUT THE COOL/DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TODAY. H85 TEMPS
AROUND 6C AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
60S...AROUND 1 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL. 10 TO 15 MPH NW WINDS AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL MIX DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW-MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER TO JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE THIS EVENING...BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN
EXCEPTIONAL RADIATION COOLING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S
INLAND (OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS) AROUND MIDNIGHT. UPPER JET STREAK
ACROSS THE NE STATES AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME HIGH CIRRUS OVER THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO IMPACT COOLING. NAM/MET
GUIDANCE INDICATING WARMER TEMPS COMPERED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND
OTHER STAT GUIDANCE. THIS DUE TO LIGHT RETURN FLOW/WAA LATE
TONIGHT. TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD MAV GUIDANCE AS ANY WAA WILL
LIKELY ARRIVE TOO LATE TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING INTO THE MID
30S. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE. NO HEADLINES PLANNED AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO. TEMPS ALONG THE COAST
WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE MONDAY AS SLY RETURN FLOW/WAA
COMMENCES. AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE
REGION TUES AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE AS THE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACH. INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE UPPER
60S.

LOW PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION MON NIGHT AS
THE CLIPPER FRONT REACHES THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS.
MEANWHILE...INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE SE AND MID-ATLANTIC
COASTS. STRONG UPPER VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING UPPER LOW
DROPS INTO THE LOCAL AREA TUES...ENHANCING UVM ALONG THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH PWATS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 1 INCH. MODELS LESS THAN EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP FALLING OVER
THE LOCAL AREA TUES. BASED ON THE VORT MAX AND INCREASING HEIGHTS
ALOFT...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS TUES...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH TUES AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE AND CLOSEST TO THE SFC LOW. ALSO MAINTAIN CHANCE
POPS ALONG THE COAST THANKS TO THE INVERTED TROUGH. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TUES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF AND SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUE NIGHT/WED...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATE THURS INTO FRI. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY TO
REFLECT A 25-40% CHC OF SHOWERS TUE NIGHT/WED (HIGHEST NE
ZONES)...TAPERING TO 20-30% THURSDAY MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
SHORE/COASTAL WATERS. DRY WX RETURNS ALL AREAS FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM AND LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW (WED/THU) SHOULD RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS WED/THU
MID/UPR 50S NW TO LOW/MID 60S SE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE IN
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. FRI/SAT`S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
60S ALL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENLY BKN CIGS WITH BASES AROUND 6-8K FT WILL PERSIST THROUGH
12-15Z...FOLLOWED BY MAINLY SKC OR SCT CU THEREAFTER. EXPECT FAIRLY
GUSTY NW WINDS ONCE AGAIN TODAY...STRONGEST AT KSBY WHERE GUSTS TO
25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z (AVG CLOSER TO 20 KT ELSEWHERE).
CLEAR/LIGHT FLOW TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MON/MON NIGHT/EARLY
TUE. NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY THEN
LINGERS OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WED ALONG WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS. WINDS FROM THE NW
ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER
TO THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES IN EFFECT ALL ZONES...N/NW WINDS AVG 20-25 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KT (15-20 KT GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT ON THE RIVERS AND
SOUND). FLOW IS SOMEWHAT OFFSHORE SO SEAS WILL GENLY REMAIN CAPPED
AT AROUND 6 FT AT 20 NM OFF THE COAST (4 FT NEARSHORE). SFC HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ESE FROM THE OH VALLEY THIS
AFTN...ALLOWING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO SUBSIDE.
SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP HEADLINES BY EARLY AFTN FOR THE RIVERS...BY
LATE AFTN FOR THE BAY/SOUND...AND SOMETIME THIS EVENING FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS (TENDING TO PERSIST THE LONGEST OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS).

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...ALLOWING SUB- SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WHILE THERE
REMAINS SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE WATERS TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...ACCOMPANIED BY CAA AND MORE
SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE COAST THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK...WHICH MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS. FLOW WOULD AGAIN BE OFFSHORE FROM THE NW SO SEAS WOULD
TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT BREEZY/DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE TODAY. DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 30S THIS AFTERNOON...CREATING
MIN RH VALUES IN THE 30-35% RANGE. THIS IN TANDEM WITH DRYING FUELS
AND N-NW WINDS AROUND 15 MPH GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH MAY INCREASE
THE WILDFIRE DANGER.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ654-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB
FIRE WEATHER...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KLWX 191420 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1020 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CLEAR TODAT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING TROUGH MONDAY. A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY AND PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH AXIS NOW PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA AND THIS
LAST WAVE OF SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE MAKING IT A BREEZY DAY.
SOLID 20-30KT GUSTS THAT BEGAN JUST AFTER DAWN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE AFTN AS GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING PUSHES THE
HIGHER GUSTS TOWARD THE SFC. THE EXIT OF THIS UPPER WAVE ALSO
TAKES THE CLOUD COVER AWAY OVER TIME. ONLY THE UPSLOPE STRATUS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTN HRS...CLEAR ELSEWHERE. A SECOND-
STRAIGHT DAY OF THE COOL/DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS BRINGING IN THE DRY
AIR. NOT ONLY WILL TEMPS BE PREVENTED FROM MAKING TOO MUCH OF AN
INCREASE TODAY BUT DEWPOINTS WILL DECREASE INTO THE L-M30S. THIS
BRINGS BACK THE CHILL TO THE AIR. THIS WILL SET THE AREA UP FOR
ONE OF THE COLDEST NIGHTS OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TONIGHT...AND THEN SHIFTS SEWD TO
THE NC COAST BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL MAKE FOR AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. USED
COMBINATION OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND SREF FOR LOW TEMPS...WHICH ARE
FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS AND
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS. FROST WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONLY UNCERTAINTY REGARDING FROST AND
FREEZING TEMPS WILL BE THE ONSET OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AROUND THE
HIGH AS IT SHIFTS TO THE SE OF US...AND POTENTIAL ARRIVAL OF MID-
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS ASSESS THIS...SO WILL
REFRAIN FROM A FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY...QUICK WARM UP AFTER A CHILLY NIGHT SINCE RETURN FLOW WILL
BE INCREASING AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE SLOWLY
RETURNS WITH SLIGHT POPS FOR RAIN BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. LOW CHANCE POPS THEN SPREAD EAST TO THE BLUE
RIDGE OVERNIGHT AS THE THE PARENT LOW CROSSES BUFFALO NY. THE SFC
TROUGH CROSSES THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW CROSSES THE CWA TUESDAY
NIGHT. LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE CWA AS DOWNSLOPING FLOW
WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL
WITH DOWNSLOPING FLOW COUNTERACTING CLOUD COVER FROM KEEPING
TEMPERATURES TOO LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CUT OFF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. 00Z GFS/ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUNS DEPICTING UPR LOW
CROSSING THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN LINGERING
ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. NWLY FLOW
WITH PERIODIC RAIN...ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. COLD AIR
COMES IN THE WEST SIDE...AND MOISTURE NOW LOOKS GREATER...SO SOME
HIGHLAND SNOW IS POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...THROUGH GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BE
A CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME HRS. PEAK SFC GUSTS WILL BE THE
IN 25-30KT RANGE. HEADING INTO THE POST-SUNSET HRS
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DROP OFF W/ ONLY OCCASIONAL GUSTS
10-15KT THROUGH AROUND 3-4Z.

VFR CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH RETURN
FLOW. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH
DOWNSLOPING FLOW LIMITING RAIN CHANCES. LOW LINGERS ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW STARTING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS INTO THE
EVE HRS. NWLY FLOW WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT EXPECTED. WINDS DIMINISH
LATE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER CROSSES THE BAY LATE IN THE
NIGHT.

RETURN FLOW MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF SHORE. LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTS OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THEN LINGERS OFF
SHORE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. EXTENDED SCA EXPECTED IN NWLY FLOW ON
BACK SIDE OF LOW WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     MDZ501-502.
VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     VAZ025>027-029-503-504.
WV...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     WVZ050-055-501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ531>534-
     537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     535-536-538-542.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...KCS/BAJ










000
FXUS61 KLWX 191420 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1020 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CLEAR TODAT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING TROUGH MONDAY. A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY AND PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH AXIS NOW PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA AND THIS
LAST WAVE OF SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE MAKING IT A BREEZY DAY.
SOLID 20-30KT GUSTS THAT BEGAN JUST AFTER DAWN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE AFTN AS GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING PUSHES THE
HIGHER GUSTS TOWARD THE SFC. THE EXIT OF THIS UPPER WAVE ALSO
TAKES THE CLOUD COVER AWAY OVER TIME. ONLY THE UPSLOPE STRATUS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTN HRS...CLEAR ELSEWHERE. A SECOND-
STRAIGHT DAY OF THE COOL/DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS BRINGING IN THE DRY
AIR. NOT ONLY WILL TEMPS BE PREVENTED FROM MAKING TOO MUCH OF AN
INCREASE TODAY BUT DEWPOINTS WILL DECREASE INTO THE L-M30S. THIS
BRINGS BACK THE CHILL TO THE AIR. THIS WILL SET THE AREA UP FOR
ONE OF THE COLDEST NIGHTS OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TONIGHT...AND THEN SHIFTS SEWD TO
THE NC COAST BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL MAKE FOR AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. USED
COMBINATION OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND SREF FOR LOW TEMPS...WHICH ARE
FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS AND
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS. FROST WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONLY UNCERTAINTY REGARDING FROST AND
FREEZING TEMPS WILL BE THE ONSET OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AROUND THE
HIGH AS IT SHIFTS TO THE SE OF US...AND POTENTIAL ARRIVAL OF MID-
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS ASSESS THIS...SO WILL
REFRAIN FROM A FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY...QUICK WARM UP AFTER A CHILLY NIGHT SINCE RETURN FLOW WILL
BE INCREASING AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE SLOWLY
RETURNS WITH SLIGHT POPS FOR RAIN BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. LOW CHANCE POPS THEN SPREAD EAST TO THE BLUE
RIDGE OVERNIGHT AS THE THE PARENT LOW CROSSES BUFFALO NY. THE SFC
TROUGH CROSSES THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW CROSSES THE CWA TUESDAY
NIGHT. LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE CWA AS DOWNSLOPING FLOW
WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL
WITH DOWNSLOPING FLOW COUNTERACTING CLOUD COVER FROM KEEPING
TEMPERATURES TOO LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CUT OFF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. 00Z GFS/ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUNS DEPICTING UPR LOW
CROSSING THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN LINGERING
ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. NWLY FLOW
WITH PERIODIC RAIN...ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. COLD AIR
COMES IN THE WEST SIDE...AND MOISTURE NOW LOOKS GREATER...SO SOME
HIGHLAND SNOW IS POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...THROUGH GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BE
A CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME HRS. PEAK SFC GUSTS WILL BE THE
IN 25-30KT RANGE. HEADING INTO THE POST-SUNSET HRS
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DROP OFF W/ ONLY OCCASIONAL GUSTS
10-15KT THROUGH AROUND 3-4Z.

VFR CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH RETURN
FLOW. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH
DOWNSLOPING FLOW LIMITING RAIN CHANCES. LOW LINGERS ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW STARTING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS INTO THE
EVE HRS. NWLY FLOW WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT EXPECTED. WINDS DIMINISH
LATE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER CROSSES THE BAY LATE IN THE
NIGHT.

RETURN FLOW MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF SHORE. LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTS OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THEN LINGERS OFF
SHORE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. EXTENDED SCA EXPECTED IN NWLY FLOW ON
BACK SIDE OF LOW WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     MDZ501-502.
VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     VAZ025>027-029-503-504.
WV...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     WVZ050-055-501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ531>534-
     537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     535-536-538-542.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...KCS/BAJ










000
FXUS61 KLWX 191420 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1020 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CLEAR TODAT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING TROUGH MONDAY. A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY AND PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH AXIS NOW PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA AND THIS
LAST WAVE OF SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE MAKING IT A BREEZY DAY.
SOLID 20-30KT GUSTS THAT BEGAN JUST AFTER DAWN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE AFTN AS GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING PUSHES THE
HIGHER GUSTS TOWARD THE SFC. THE EXIT OF THIS UPPER WAVE ALSO
TAKES THE CLOUD COVER AWAY OVER TIME. ONLY THE UPSLOPE STRATUS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTN HRS...CLEAR ELSEWHERE. A SECOND-
STRAIGHT DAY OF THE COOL/DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS BRINGING IN THE DRY
AIR. NOT ONLY WILL TEMPS BE PREVENTED FROM MAKING TOO MUCH OF AN
INCREASE TODAY BUT DEWPOINTS WILL DECREASE INTO THE L-M30S. THIS
BRINGS BACK THE CHILL TO THE AIR. THIS WILL SET THE AREA UP FOR
ONE OF THE COLDEST NIGHTS OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TONIGHT...AND THEN SHIFTS SEWD TO
THE NC COAST BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL MAKE FOR AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. USED
COMBINATION OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND SREF FOR LOW TEMPS...WHICH ARE
FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS AND
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS. FROST WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONLY UNCERTAINTY REGARDING FROST AND
FREEZING TEMPS WILL BE THE ONSET OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AROUND THE
HIGH AS IT SHIFTS TO THE SE OF US...AND POTENTIAL ARRIVAL OF MID-
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS ASSESS THIS...SO WILL
REFRAIN FROM A FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY...QUICK WARM UP AFTER A CHILLY NIGHT SINCE RETURN FLOW WILL
BE INCREASING AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE SLOWLY
RETURNS WITH SLIGHT POPS FOR RAIN BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. LOW CHANCE POPS THEN SPREAD EAST TO THE BLUE
RIDGE OVERNIGHT AS THE THE PARENT LOW CROSSES BUFFALO NY. THE SFC
TROUGH CROSSES THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW CROSSES THE CWA TUESDAY
NIGHT. LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE CWA AS DOWNSLOPING FLOW
WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL
WITH DOWNSLOPING FLOW COUNTERACTING CLOUD COVER FROM KEEPING
TEMPERATURES TOO LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CUT OFF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. 00Z GFS/ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUNS DEPICTING UPR LOW
CROSSING THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN LINGERING
ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. NWLY FLOW
WITH PERIODIC RAIN...ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. COLD AIR
COMES IN THE WEST SIDE...AND MOISTURE NOW LOOKS GREATER...SO SOME
HIGHLAND SNOW IS POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...THROUGH GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BE
A CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME HRS. PEAK SFC GUSTS WILL BE THE
IN 25-30KT RANGE. HEADING INTO THE POST-SUNSET HRS
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DROP OFF W/ ONLY OCCASIONAL GUSTS
10-15KT THROUGH AROUND 3-4Z.

VFR CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH RETURN
FLOW. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH
DOWNSLOPING FLOW LIMITING RAIN CHANCES. LOW LINGERS ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW STARTING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS INTO THE
EVE HRS. NWLY FLOW WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT EXPECTED. WINDS DIMINISH
LATE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER CROSSES THE BAY LATE IN THE
NIGHT.

RETURN FLOW MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF SHORE. LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTS OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THEN LINGERS OFF
SHORE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. EXTENDED SCA EXPECTED IN NWLY FLOW ON
BACK SIDE OF LOW WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     MDZ501-502.
VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     VAZ025>027-029-503-504.
WV...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     WVZ050-055-501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ531>534-
     537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     535-536-538-542.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...KCS/BAJ










000
FXUS61 KLWX 191420 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1020 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CLEAR TODAT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING TROUGH MONDAY. A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY AND PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH AXIS NOW PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA AND THIS
LAST WAVE OF SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE MAKING IT A BREEZY DAY.
SOLID 20-30KT GUSTS THAT BEGAN JUST AFTER DAWN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE AFTN AS GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING PUSHES THE
HIGHER GUSTS TOWARD THE SFC. THE EXIT OF THIS UPPER WAVE ALSO
TAKES THE CLOUD COVER AWAY OVER TIME. ONLY THE UPSLOPE STRATUS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTN HRS...CLEAR ELSEWHERE. A SECOND-
STRAIGHT DAY OF THE COOL/DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS BRINGING IN THE DRY
AIR. NOT ONLY WILL TEMPS BE PREVENTED FROM MAKING TOO MUCH OF AN
INCREASE TODAY BUT DEWPOINTS WILL DECREASE INTO THE L-M30S. THIS
BRINGS BACK THE CHILL TO THE AIR. THIS WILL SET THE AREA UP FOR
ONE OF THE COLDEST NIGHTS OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TONIGHT...AND THEN SHIFTS SEWD TO
THE NC COAST BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL MAKE FOR AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. USED
COMBINATION OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND SREF FOR LOW TEMPS...WHICH ARE
FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS AND
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS. FROST WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONLY UNCERTAINTY REGARDING FROST AND
FREEZING TEMPS WILL BE THE ONSET OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AROUND THE
HIGH AS IT SHIFTS TO THE SE OF US...AND POTENTIAL ARRIVAL OF MID-
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS ASSESS THIS...SO WILL
REFRAIN FROM A FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY...QUICK WARM UP AFTER A CHILLY NIGHT SINCE RETURN FLOW WILL
BE INCREASING AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE SLOWLY
RETURNS WITH SLIGHT POPS FOR RAIN BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. LOW CHANCE POPS THEN SPREAD EAST TO THE BLUE
RIDGE OVERNIGHT AS THE THE PARENT LOW CROSSES BUFFALO NY. THE SFC
TROUGH CROSSES THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW CROSSES THE CWA TUESDAY
NIGHT. LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE CWA AS DOWNSLOPING FLOW
WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL
WITH DOWNSLOPING FLOW COUNTERACTING CLOUD COVER FROM KEEPING
TEMPERATURES TOO LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CUT OFF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. 00Z GFS/ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUNS DEPICTING UPR LOW
CROSSING THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN LINGERING
ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. NWLY FLOW
WITH PERIODIC RAIN...ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. COLD AIR
COMES IN THE WEST SIDE...AND MOISTURE NOW LOOKS GREATER...SO SOME
HIGHLAND SNOW IS POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...THROUGH GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BE
A CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME HRS. PEAK SFC GUSTS WILL BE THE
IN 25-30KT RANGE. HEADING INTO THE POST-SUNSET HRS
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DROP OFF W/ ONLY OCCASIONAL GUSTS
10-15KT THROUGH AROUND 3-4Z.

VFR CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH RETURN
FLOW. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH
DOWNSLOPING FLOW LIMITING RAIN CHANCES. LOW LINGERS ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW STARTING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS INTO THE
EVE HRS. NWLY FLOW WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT EXPECTED. WINDS DIMINISH
LATE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER CROSSES THE BAY LATE IN THE
NIGHT.

RETURN FLOW MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF SHORE. LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTS OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THEN LINGERS OFF
SHORE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. EXTENDED SCA EXPECTED IN NWLY FLOW ON
BACK SIDE OF LOW WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     MDZ501-502.
VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     VAZ025>027-029-503-504.
WV...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     WVZ050-055-501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ531>534-
     537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     535-536-538-542.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...KCS/BAJ










000
FXUS61 KPHI 191036
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
636 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY TODAY WILL MOVE
EAST AND CREST OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL
THEN MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE MOVING AWAY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST ESTF UPDATE WE ARE GOING TO START WIND GUSTS A LITTLE
FASTER AS MIXING IS GETTING TO A FAST START THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED UP SLIGHTLY. SPRINKLES ARE REACHING THE
GROUND IN HAZELTON, SO WE WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES EARLY FAR NORTH. THE KATABATIC FLOW IS STARTING
TO ERODE THE STRATOCU, SO NO BIG CHANGES TO SKY COVERAGE.

THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER AT 500MB WHILE A
COMPROMISE OF BOTH THE WRF AND GFS WORKED BEST AT 850MB AND 925MB.

IF ANYONE WONDERED WHERE OCTOBER WENT, ITS BACK TODAY. IT WILL
FEATURE A BLUSTERY FALL FEEL TO IT. ONE SHORT WAVE DOWN AND ONE TO
GO THIS MORNING AS THE LONG WAVE TROF CLEARS OUR CWA. CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAST SHORT WAVE IS NOW MOVING ACROSS OUR CWA AND
SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST BY ABOUT 13Z.

THERE IS STILL THE MATTER OF THE NW FLOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST SOME LAKE ENHANCED PCPN MIGHT JUST MAKE IT
INTO OUR POCONO CWA BEFORE DISSIPATING. WE CARRY A CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES EARLY THERE. AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES, THE FCST
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS AND THE CONVECTIVE TEMPS BECOME HARDER
TO REACH. THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING NORTH UNTIL THIS COMES TO FRUITION. LESS CLOUDINESS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF OUR CWA. TEMPS HAVE
FOUND A WAY TO OUTDO GUIDANCE AND WHILE LOCAL PROCEDURES SUGGEST
GOING LOWER, WE KEPT CONTINUITY. IT WILL BE BREEZY/BLUSTERY TODAY,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MID DAY HOURS WHEN MIXING SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED.
PEAK GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH ARE LIKELY. IF THIS WERE HALLOWEEN,
THE GREAT PUMPKIN WOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM GETTING AIRBORNE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF OUR
CWA NORTH OF DELMARVA EXCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE PHILADELPHIA AREA.

BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF THE 925MB AND 850MB INITIALIZATION, WE USED
A STRAIGHT STAT GUIDANCE BLEND FOR MINS. WHERE THIS GAVE US
PREDOMINATE MINS OF FREEZING OR LESS IN THE COUNTIES, WE WENT WITH
FREEZE WARNINGS. THE NJ PINE BARRENS FIND A WAY TO RADIATE LIKE THE
BEST OF THEM. HERE WE WENT BELOW STAT GUIDANCE FOR THE FREEZE
WARNING. THE FROST ADVISORY MAINLY SURROUNDS THESE COLDER SPOTS AND
MOST LIKELY TO COME TO FRUITION IN THE MORE RURAL LOW LYING AREAS OF
THOSE COUNTIES INCLUDED. IN DELMARVA, DEW POINTS ARE PREDICTED TO BE
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS AND CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IS TOO LOW AT THIS
TIME. WE WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF PATCHY FROST IN THE AFD.

WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE QUICKLY TONIGHT AND TEMPS DROP LIKE A ROCK
DURING THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT A JET STREAK IS PREDICTED TO PASS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA WITH CIRRUS LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING. THERE IS RIDGING PREDICTED ALOFT AND NO PREDICTED OMEGA
AT THE SUB CIRRUS LEVEL. THE COMBINATION LED TO OUR DECISION NORTH
THAT THE CIRRUS MAY NOT BE THICK ENOUGH TO HOLD TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING.

AS WE MOVE FARTHER SOUTH, THE ENTRANCE REGION TO THAT JET STREAK
ARRIVES LATER AT NIGHT WITH LESS MOISTURE AND LESS TIME TO PREVENT
FROST/FREEZING TEMPS FROM OCCURRING. THIS IS ALSO WHY DELMARVA WILL
BE LOOKED CLOSELY TODAY AS THEY SHOULD HAVE LITTLE CIRRUS OVERNIGHT.
FAR FAR NORTH MIGHT BE SAVED BY THE CIRRUS (CONFIDENCE TOO LOW ABOUT
THAT TO NOT ISSUE A WARNING). BETWEEN THERE SHOULD BE A SWEET SPOT
WHERE DEW POINTS ARE LOW ENOUGH AND THE CIRRUS ARRIVES TOO LATE.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE LEHIGH AND RARITAN VALLEYS.

THIS IS RATHER LATE FOR A FREEZE OR A WIDESPREAD FROST (THERE WAS
SOME FROST INTO THE PHL NW SUBURBS EARLIER THIS MONTH) TO AFFECT OUR
CWA. THE PLUS SIDE IS THAT IF PROTECTIVE MEASURES SUCCEED TONIGHT,
FREEZING OR FROSTY CONDITIONS ARE NOT ON TAP FOR A WHILE.
WE BROUGHT IN OUR MEYER LEMON TREE INDOORS YESTERDAY ANYWAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CRESTING OVER THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING BEFORE MOVING EAST. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 50S NORTH AND MID 50S OT LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.

MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND A DEEPENING
H5 LOW WILL BE WEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A
RATHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS
FIRST FEW DAYS WILL BE SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.
SLGT CHC POPS MON NIGHT WILL INCREASE TO HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS BY
TUE NIGHT. HIGHS TUE WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW/MID 60S NORTH AND
MID/UPPER 60S SOUTH.

WED THRU THU NIGHT...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH THE H5
LOW/TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA WED AND THE SFC LOW JUST AHEAD OF IT.
FREQUENT PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WE HAVE KEPT THE POPS OFFERED BY WPC WHICH ARE MOSTLY HIGH
CHC CATEGORY WED THRU THU...THEN SLGT CHC THU NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MOSTLY BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

FRI THRU SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME ALONG WITH MILDER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY AND POINTS SOUTH/EAST WILL
REACH THE LOW 60S FRI/SAT WHILE READINGS ACROSS THE NORTH/WEST WILL
BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z TAFS WILL FEATURE NO BIG CHANGES. WE BUMPED UP WIND GUSTS
SLIGHTLY AND WILL BE ADDING A SOUTHWEST WIND CHANGE GROUP FOR KPHL
FOR MONDAY MORNING.

TIL 12Z...MAINLY A MID DECK VFR CIG FCST WITH WEST WINDS CLOSE TO
10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS ADDED. HIGHER TERRAIN AIRPORTS WILL SEE SOME
MVFR CIGS. NOT SURE ABOUT KABE REMAINING VFR.

SUNDAY DAY...VFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT AIRPORTS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF
PHILADELPHIA AND INTERSTATE 195 IN NJ. EVEN SOME MVFR CIGS EARLY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ELSEWHERE MAINLY JUST A SCATTERED DECK OF CU
CLOUDS AFTER 12Z OR 13Z. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTINESS AROUND 25 KNOTS. STAT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
THE PEAK WINDS SHOULD OCCUR BY ABOUT 18Z. CLEARING OR CLEAR SKIES
AND DIMINISHING WINDS TOWARD SUNSET.

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH LIGHTER NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST TERMINALS. ANY CLOUDS WILL BE AT CIRRUS
LEVEL AND MORE LIKELY LATER AT NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MON AND MON NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
     FEW SHOWERS MON NIGHT.
TUE THRU THU...UNSETTLED WITH CLOUDS AND FREQUENT SHOWERS. MOSTLY
     VFR BUT OCNL LOWER CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS PREDICTED FOR TODAY. NW WINDS
SHOULD PEAK AROUND 30 KNOTS. TONIGHT WE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS IN DELAWARE BAY AND LEFT THE SAME
ENDING TIME ON THE OCEAN. IN ALL LOCATIONS, THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND SEAS AND SWELLS ON THE OCEAN
SHOULD FALL BELOW 5 FEET BY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
MON THRU TUE NIGHT...SUB VFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUE/TUE NIGHT.
WED THRU FRIDAY...SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WED AND LASTING INTO FRI.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ054-055-061-
     062.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ060-101>106.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ020>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>019-023.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 191036
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
636 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY TODAY WILL MOVE
EAST AND CREST OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL
THEN MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE MOVING AWAY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST ESTF UPDATE WE ARE GOING TO START WIND GUSTS A LITTLE
FASTER AS MIXING IS GETTING TO A FAST START THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED UP SLIGHTLY. SPRINKLES ARE REACHING THE
GROUND IN HAZELTON, SO WE WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES EARLY FAR NORTH. THE KATABATIC FLOW IS STARTING
TO ERODE THE STRATOCU, SO NO BIG CHANGES TO SKY COVERAGE.

THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER AT 500MB WHILE A
COMPROMISE OF BOTH THE WRF AND GFS WORKED BEST AT 850MB AND 925MB.

IF ANYONE WONDERED WHERE OCTOBER WENT, ITS BACK TODAY. IT WILL
FEATURE A BLUSTERY FALL FEEL TO IT. ONE SHORT WAVE DOWN AND ONE TO
GO THIS MORNING AS THE LONG WAVE TROF CLEARS OUR CWA. CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAST SHORT WAVE IS NOW MOVING ACROSS OUR CWA AND
SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST BY ABOUT 13Z.

THERE IS STILL THE MATTER OF THE NW FLOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST SOME LAKE ENHANCED PCPN MIGHT JUST MAKE IT
INTO OUR POCONO CWA BEFORE DISSIPATING. WE CARRY A CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES EARLY THERE. AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES, THE FCST
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS AND THE CONVECTIVE TEMPS BECOME HARDER
TO REACH. THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING NORTH UNTIL THIS COMES TO FRUITION. LESS CLOUDINESS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF OUR CWA. TEMPS HAVE
FOUND A WAY TO OUTDO GUIDANCE AND WHILE LOCAL PROCEDURES SUGGEST
GOING LOWER, WE KEPT CONTINUITY. IT WILL BE BREEZY/BLUSTERY TODAY,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MID DAY HOURS WHEN MIXING SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED.
PEAK GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH ARE LIKELY. IF THIS WERE HALLOWEEN,
THE GREAT PUMPKIN WOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM GETTING AIRBORNE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF OUR
CWA NORTH OF DELMARVA EXCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE PHILADELPHIA AREA.

BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF THE 925MB AND 850MB INITIALIZATION, WE USED
A STRAIGHT STAT GUIDANCE BLEND FOR MINS. WHERE THIS GAVE US
PREDOMINATE MINS OF FREEZING OR LESS IN THE COUNTIES, WE WENT WITH
FREEZE WARNINGS. THE NJ PINE BARRENS FIND A WAY TO RADIATE LIKE THE
BEST OF THEM. HERE WE WENT BELOW STAT GUIDANCE FOR THE FREEZE
WARNING. THE FROST ADVISORY MAINLY SURROUNDS THESE COLDER SPOTS AND
MOST LIKELY TO COME TO FRUITION IN THE MORE RURAL LOW LYING AREAS OF
THOSE COUNTIES INCLUDED. IN DELMARVA, DEW POINTS ARE PREDICTED TO BE
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS AND CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IS TOO LOW AT THIS
TIME. WE WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF PATCHY FROST IN THE AFD.

WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE QUICKLY TONIGHT AND TEMPS DROP LIKE A ROCK
DURING THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT A JET STREAK IS PREDICTED TO PASS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA WITH CIRRUS LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING. THERE IS RIDGING PREDICTED ALOFT AND NO PREDICTED OMEGA
AT THE SUB CIRRUS LEVEL. THE COMBINATION LED TO OUR DECISION NORTH
THAT THE CIRRUS MAY NOT BE THICK ENOUGH TO HOLD TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING.

AS WE MOVE FARTHER SOUTH, THE ENTRANCE REGION TO THAT JET STREAK
ARRIVES LATER AT NIGHT WITH LESS MOISTURE AND LESS TIME TO PREVENT
FROST/FREEZING TEMPS FROM OCCURRING. THIS IS ALSO WHY DELMARVA WILL
BE LOOKED CLOSELY TODAY AS THEY SHOULD HAVE LITTLE CIRRUS OVERNIGHT.
FAR FAR NORTH MIGHT BE SAVED BY THE CIRRUS (CONFIDENCE TOO LOW ABOUT
THAT TO NOT ISSUE A WARNING). BETWEEN THERE SHOULD BE A SWEET SPOT
WHERE DEW POINTS ARE LOW ENOUGH AND THE CIRRUS ARRIVES TOO LATE.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE LEHIGH AND RARITAN VALLEYS.

THIS IS RATHER LATE FOR A FREEZE OR A WIDESPREAD FROST (THERE WAS
SOME FROST INTO THE PHL NW SUBURBS EARLIER THIS MONTH) TO AFFECT OUR
CWA. THE PLUS SIDE IS THAT IF PROTECTIVE MEASURES SUCCEED TONIGHT,
FREEZING OR FROSTY CONDITIONS ARE NOT ON TAP FOR A WHILE.
WE BROUGHT IN OUR MEYER LEMON TREE INDOORS YESTERDAY ANYWAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CRESTING OVER THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING BEFORE MOVING EAST. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 50S NORTH AND MID 50S OT LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.

MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND A DEEPENING
H5 LOW WILL BE WEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A
RATHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS
FIRST FEW DAYS WILL BE SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.
SLGT CHC POPS MON NIGHT WILL INCREASE TO HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS BY
TUE NIGHT. HIGHS TUE WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW/MID 60S NORTH AND
MID/UPPER 60S SOUTH.

WED THRU THU NIGHT...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH THE H5
LOW/TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA WED AND THE SFC LOW JUST AHEAD OF IT.
FREQUENT PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WE HAVE KEPT THE POPS OFFERED BY WPC WHICH ARE MOSTLY HIGH
CHC CATEGORY WED THRU THU...THEN SLGT CHC THU NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MOSTLY BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

FRI THRU SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME ALONG WITH MILDER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY AND POINTS SOUTH/EAST WILL
REACH THE LOW 60S FRI/SAT WHILE READINGS ACROSS THE NORTH/WEST WILL
BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z TAFS WILL FEATURE NO BIG CHANGES. WE BUMPED UP WIND GUSTS
SLIGHTLY AND WILL BE ADDING A SOUTHWEST WIND CHANGE GROUP FOR KPHL
FOR MONDAY MORNING.

TIL 12Z...MAINLY A MID DECK VFR CIG FCST WITH WEST WINDS CLOSE TO
10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS ADDED. HIGHER TERRAIN AIRPORTS WILL SEE SOME
MVFR CIGS. NOT SURE ABOUT KABE REMAINING VFR.

SUNDAY DAY...VFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT AIRPORTS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF
PHILADELPHIA AND INTERSTATE 195 IN NJ. EVEN SOME MVFR CIGS EARLY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ELSEWHERE MAINLY JUST A SCATTERED DECK OF CU
CLOUDS AFTER 12Z OR 13Z. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTINESS AROUND 25 KNOTS. STAT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
THE PEAK WINDS SHOULD OCCUR BY ABOUT 18Z. CLEARING OR CLEAR SKIES
AND DIMINISHING WINDS TOWARD SUNSET.

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH LIGHTER NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST TERMINALS. ANY CLOUDS WILL BE AT CIRRUS
LEVEL AND MORE LIKELY LATER AT NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MON AND MON NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
     FEW SHOWERS MON NIGHT.
TUE THRU THU...UNSETTLED WITH CLOUDS AND FREQUENT SHOWERS. MOSTLY
     VFR BUT OCNL LOWER CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS PREDICTED FOR TODAY. NW WINDS
SHOULD PEAK AROUND 30 KNOTS. TONIGHT WE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS IN DELAWARE BAY AND LEFT THE SAME
ENDING TIME ON THE OCEAN. IN ALL LOCATIONS, THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND SEAS AND SWELLS ON THE OCEAN
SHOULD FALL BELOW 5 FEET BY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
MON THRU TUE NIGHT...SUB VFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUE/TUE NIGHT.
WED THRU FRIDAY...SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WED AND LASTING INTO FRI.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ054-055-061-
     062.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ060-101>106.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ020>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>019-023.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191020
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
620 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PREDAWN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST FOR HOURLY TRENDS OF TEMPS AND WEA.

PREVIOUS...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MIXING HEIGHTS BELOW 3 OR
4KFT INDICATING TOO SHALLOW OF A DEPTH FOR MUCH PRECIPITATION. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY
OVER LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH.

LATER THIS MORNING AND DURING THE AFTERNOON...WARMER AIR WILL
SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A SLOW DECREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE
CLOUDS DISSIPATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE RUSHES EASTWARD IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WAA WILL
CONTINUE WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO +4 TO +7. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
WILL SPREAD MID CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY ALL NIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE
IS LACKING AND THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS UNIMPRESSIVE.

COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY. AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY...DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL STREAM
NORTHWARD. WITH THE BEST ASCENSION WELL TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR THE
BOUNDARY...HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE MONDAY MORNING DRY. POPS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE COLD FRONT.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT
CROSSES AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH.

BY TUESDAY MORNING...FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE WILL BE
HEADING TOWARD EASTERN PA AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CUTS OFF OVER
LAKE ERIE. THE BROAD 50H LOW WILL ROTATE SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWER ACTIVITY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPS ON TUESDAY
BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SYSTEM FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY. A PERIOD OF DRY AND
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESIDUAL SHWRS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID MRNG AS INVERSION LVLS CONT TO
LOWER IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING MID LVL TROF AXIS.
OTHERWISE...COLD NW BNDRY LYR FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES WL CONT TO
FUEL STRATOCU DVLPMNT THROUGH THE MRNG ALTHOUGH DRY ADVCTN AND
WEAKENING FLOW WL SPPRT A RISING CIG BASE. MVFR/LOW END VFR WL
THUS GIVE WAY TO GENL VFR BY THIS AFTN WITH RMNG STRATOCU
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS BNDRY LYR FLOW BACKS TO THE W BY LATE
DAY.

.AVIATION /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WL PERSIST INTO MID WEEK AS UPR TROFG
CONTS TO PLAGUE THE UPR OH REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/22





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190830 CCA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
429 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MIXING HEIGHTS BELOW 3 OR
4KFT INDICATING TOO SHALLOW OF A DEPTH FOR MUCH PRECIPITATION. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY
OVER LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH.

LATER THIS MORNING AND DURING THE AFTERNOON...WARMER AIR WILL
SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A SLOW DECREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE
CLOUDS DISSIPATE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE RUSHES EASTWARD IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WAA WILL
CONTINUE WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO +4 TO +7. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
WILL SPREAD MID CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY ALL NIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE
IS LACKING AND THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS UNIMPRESSIVE.

COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY. AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY...DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL STREAM
NORTHWARD. WITH THE BEST ASCENSION WELL TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR THE
BOUNDARY...HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE MONDAY MORNING DRY. POPS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE COLD FRONT.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT
CROSSES AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH.

BY TUESDAY MORNING...FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE WILL BE
HEADING TOWARD EASTERN PA AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CUTS OFF OVER
LAKE ERIE. THE BROAD 50H LOW WILL ROTATE SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWER ACTIVITY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPS ON TUESDAY
BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SYSTEM FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY. A PERIOD OF DRY AND
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD NW BNDRY LYR FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES WL CONT TO FUEL STRATOCU
DVLPMNT THROUGH THE MRNG ALTHOUGH DRY ADVCTN MAY SPPRT A RISING
CIG BASE. MVFR WL THUS GIVE WAY TO VFR BY THIS AFTN WITH STRATOCU
THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS BNDRY LYR FLOW BACKS TO THE W BY
LATE DAY.

.AVIATION /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WL PERSIST INTO MID WEEK AS UPR TROFG
CONTS TO PLAGUE THE UPR OH REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190830 CCA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
429 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MIXING HEIGHTS BELOW 3 OR
4KFT INDICATING TOO SHALLOW OF A DEPTH FOR MUCH PRECIPITATION. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY
OVER LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH.

LATER THIS MORNING AND DURING THE AFTERNOON...WARMER AIR WILL
SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A SLOW DECREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE
CLOUDS DISSIPATE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE RUSHES EASTWARD IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WAA WILL
CONTINUE WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO +4 TO +7. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
WILL SPREAD MID CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY ALL NIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE
IS LACKING AND THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS UNIMPRESSIVE.

COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY. AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY...DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL STREAM
NORTHWARD. WITH THE BEST ASCENSION WELL TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR THE
BOUNDARY...HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE MONDAY MORNING DRY. POPS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE COLD FRONT.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT
CROSSES AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH.

BY TUESDAY MORNING...FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE WILL BE
HEADING TOWARD EASTERN PA AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CUTS OFF OVER
LAKE ERIE. THE BROAD 50H LOW WILL ROTATE SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWER ACTIVITY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPS ON TUESDAY
BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SYSTEM FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY. A PERIOD OF DRY AND
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD NW BNDRY LYR FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES WL CONT TO FUEL STRATOCU
DVLPMNT THROUGH THE MRNG ALTHOUGH DRY ADVCTN MAY SPPRT A RISING
CIG BASE. MVFR WL THUS GIVE WAY TO VFR BY THIS AFTN WITH STRATOCU
THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS BNDRY LYR FLOW BACKS TO THE W BY
LATE DAY.

.AVIATION /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WL PERSIST INTO MID WEEK AS UPR TROFG
CONTS TO PLAGUE THE UPR OH REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190826
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
426 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MIXING HEIGHTS BELOW 3 OR
4KFT INDICATING TOO SHALLOW OF A DEPTH FOR MUCH PRECIPITATION. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY
OVER LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH.

LATER THIS MORNING AND DURING THE AFTERNOON...WARMER AIR WILL
SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A SLOW DECREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE
CLOUDS DISSIPATE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE RUSHES EASTWARD IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WAA WILL
CONTINUE WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO +4 TO +7. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
WILL SPREAD MID CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY ALL NIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE
IS LACKING AND THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS UNIMPRESSIVE.

COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY. AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY...DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL STREAM
NORTHWARD. WITH THE BEST ASCENSION WELL TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR THE
BOUNDARY...HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE MONDAY MORNING DRY. POPS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE COLD FRONT.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT
CROSSES AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH.

BY TUESDAY MORNING...FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE WILL BE
HEADING TOWARD EASTERN PA AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CUTS OFF OVER
LAKE ERIE. THE BROAD 50H LOW WILL ROTATE SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWER ACTIVITY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPS ON TUESDAY
BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SYSTEM FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY. A PERIOD OF DRY AND
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD NW BNDRY LYR FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES WL CONT TO FUEL STRATOCU
DVLPMNT THROUGH THE MRNG ALTHOUGH DRY ADVCTN MAY SPPRT A RISING
CIG BASE. MVFR WL THUS GIVE WAY TO VFR BY THIS AFTN WITH STRATOCU
THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS BNDRY LYR FLOW BACKS TO THE W BY
LATE DAY.

.AVIATION /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WL PERSIST INTO MID WEEK AS UPR TROFG
CONTS TO PLAGUE THE UPR OH REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190826
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
426 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MIXING HEIGHTS BELOW 3 OR
4KFT INDICATING TOO SHALLOW OF A DEPTH FOR MUCH PRECIPITATION. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY
OVER LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH.

LATER THIS MORNING AND DURING THE AFTERNOON...WARMER AIR WILL
SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A SLOW DECREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE
CLOUDS DISSIPATE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE RUSHES EASTWARD IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WAA WILL
CONTINUE WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO +4 TO +7. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
WILL SPREAD MID CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY ALL NIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE
IS LACKING AND THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS UNIMPRESSIVE.

COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY. AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY...DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL STREAM
NORTHWARD. WITH THE BEST ASCENSION WELL TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR THE
BOUNDARY...HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE MONDAY MORNING DRY. POPS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE COLD FRONT.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT
CROSSES AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH.

BY TUESDAY MORNING...FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE WILL BE
HEADING TOWARD EASTERN PA AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CUTS OFF OVER
LAKE ERIE. THE BROAD 50H LOW WILL ROTATE SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWER ACTIVITY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPS ON TUESDAY
BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SYSTEM FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY. A PERIOD OF DRY AND
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD NW BNDRY LYR FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES WL CONT TO FUEL STRATOCU
DVLPMNT THROUGH THE MRNG ALTHOUGH DRY ADVCTN MAY SPPRT A RISING
CIG BASE. MVFR WL THUS GIVE WAY TO VFR BY THIS AFTN WITH STRATOCU
THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS BNDRY LYR FLOW BACKS TO THE W BY
LATE DAY.

.AVIATION /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WL PERSIST INTO MID WEEK AS UPR TROFG
CONTS TO PLAGUE THE UPR OH REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190826
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
426 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MIXING HEIGHTS BELOW 3 OR
4KFT INDICATING TOO SHALLOW OF A DEPTH FOR MUCH PRECIPITATION. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY
OVER LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH.

LATER THIS MORNING AND DURING THE AFTERNOON...WARMER AIR WILL
SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A SLOW DECREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE
CLOUDS DISSIPATE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE RUSHES EASTWARD IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WAA WILL
CONTINUE WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO +4 TO +7. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
WILL SPREAD MID CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY ALL NIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE
IS LACKING AND THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS UNIMPRESSIVE.

COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY. AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY...DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL STREAM
NORTHWARD. WITH THE BEST ASCENSION WELL TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR THE
BOUNDARY...HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE MONDAY MORNING DRY. POPS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE COLD FRONT.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT
CROSSES AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH.

BY TUESDAY MORNING...FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE WILL BE
HEADING TOWARD EASTERN PA AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CUTS OFF OVER
LAKE ERIE. THE BROAD 50H LOW WILL ROTATE SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWER ACTIVITY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPS ON TUESDAY
BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SYSTEM FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY. A PERIOD OF DRY AND
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD NW BNDRY LYR FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES WL CONT TO FUEL STRATOCU
DVLPMNT THROUGH THE MRNG ALTHOUGH DRY ADVCTN MAY SPPRT A RISING
CIG BASE. MVFR WL THUS GIVE WAY TO VFR BY THIS AFTN WITH STRATOCU
THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS BNDRY LYR FLOW BACKS TO THE W BY
LATE DAY.

.AVIATION /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WL PERSIST INTO MID WEEK AS UPR TROFG
CONTS TO PLAGUE THE UPR OH REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190826
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
426 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MIXING HEIGHTS BELOW 3 OR
4KFT INDICATING TOO SHALLOW OF A DEPTH FOR MUCH PRECIPITATION. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY
OVER LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH.

LATER THIS MORNING AND DURING THE AFTERNOON...WARMER AIR WILL
SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A SLOW DECREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE
CLOUDS DISSIPATE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE RUSHES EASTWARD IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WAA WILL
CONTINUE WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO +4 TO +7. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
WILL SPREAD MID CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY ALL NIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE
IS LACKING AND THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS UNIMPRESSIVE.

COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY. AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY...DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL STREAM
NORTHWARD. WITH THE BEST ASCENSION WELL TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR THE
BOUNDARY...HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE MONDAY MORNING DRY. POPS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE COLD FRONT.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT
CROSSES AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH.

BY TUESDAY MORNING...FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE WILL BE
HEADING TOWARD EASTERN PA AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CUTS OFF OVER
LAKE ERIE. THE BROAD 50H LOW WILL ROTATE SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWER ACTIVITY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPS ON TUESDAY
BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SYSTEM FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY. A PERIOD OF DRY AND
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD NW BNDRY LYR FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES WL CONT TO FUEL STRATOCU
DVLPMNT THROUGH THE MRNG ALTHOUGH DRY ADVCTN MAY SPPRT A RISING
CIG BASE. MVFR WL THUS GIVE WAY TO VFR BY THIS AFTN WITH STRATOCU
THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS BNDRY LYR FLOW BACKS TO THE W BY
LATE DAY.

.AVIATION /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WL PERSIST INTO MID WEEK AS UPR TROFG
CONTS TO PLAGUE THE UPR OH REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 190813
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
413 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TODAY...CENTERING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY....LOCATING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR PLOTS DEPICT
SHORTWAVE/STRONG VORT LOBE TRACKING OVER THE ARE THIS EVENING.
LIGHT RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR OVER THE ERN VA PIEDMONT THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...OBS INDICATE NO PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND FROM
8K FT CLOUD DECK. DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S...FURTHER KEEPING PRECIP FROM REACHING THE SFC. WITH
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DECREASING IN CAA...EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN
SPRINKLES EARLY THIS MORNING.

VORT LOBE PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SKIES CLEAR...BECOMING SUNNY-
MOSTLY SUNNY BY MID-MORNING. HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES RECOVER SLIGHTLY
IN WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING OFFSHORE...BUT THE COOL/DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TODAY. H85 TEMPS
AROUND 6C AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
60S...AROUND 1 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL. 10 TO 15 MPH NW WINDS AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL MIX DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW-MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER TO JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE THIS EVENING...BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN
EXCEPTIONAL RADIATION COOLING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S
INLAND (OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS) AROUND MIDNIGHT. UPPER JET STREAK
ACROSS THE NE STATES AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME HIGH CIRRUS OVER THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO IMPACT COOLING. NAM/MET
GUIDANCE INDICATING WARMER TEMPS COMPERED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND
OTHER STAT GUIDANCE. THIS DUE TO LIGHT RETURN FLOW/WAA LATE
TONIGHT. TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD MAV GUIDANCE AS ANY WAA WILL
LIKELY ARRIVE TOO LATE TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING INTO THE MID
30S. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE. NO HEADLINES PLANNED AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO. TEMPS ALONG THE COAST
WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE MONDAY AS SLY RETURN FLOW/WAA
COMMENCES. AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE
REGION TUES AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE AS THE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACH. INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE UPPER
60S.

LOW PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION MON NIGHT AS
THE CLIPPER FRONT REACHES THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS.
MEANWHILE...INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE SE AND MID-ATLANTIC
COASTS. STRONG UPPER VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING UPPER LOW
DROPS INTO THE LOCAL AREA TUES...ENHANCING UVM ALONG THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH PWATS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 1 INCH. MODELS LESS THAN EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP FALLING OVER
THE LOCAL AREA TUES. BASED ON THE VORT MAX AND INCREASING HEIGHTS
ALOFT...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS TUES...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH TUES AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE AND CLOSEST TO THE SFC LOW. ALSO MAINTAIN CHANCE
POPS ALONG THE COAST THANKS TO THE INVERTED TROUGH. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TUES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF AND SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUE NIGHT/WED...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATE THURS INTO FRI. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY TO
REFLECT A 25-40% CHC OF SHOWERS TUE NIGHT/WED (HIGHEST NE
ZONES)...TAPERING TO 20-30% THURSDAY MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
SHORE/COASTAL WATERS. DRY WX RETURNS ALL AREAS FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM AND LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW (WED/THU) SHOULD RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS WED/THU
MID/UPR 50S NW TO LOW/MID 60S SE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE IN
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. FRI/SAT`S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
60S ALL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENLY BKN CIGS WITH BASES AROUND 6-8K FT WILL PERSIST THROUGH
12-15Z...FOLLOWED BY MAINLY SKC OR SCT CU THEREAFTER. EXPECT FAIRLY
GUSTY NW WINDS ONCE AGAIN TODAY...STRONGEST AT KSBY WHERE GUSTS TO
25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z (AVG CLOSER TO 20 KT ELSEWHERE).
CLEAR/LIGHT FLOW TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MON/MON NIGHT/EARLY
TUE. NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY THEN
LINGERS OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WED ALONG WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS. WINDS FROM THE NW
ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER
TO THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES IN EFFECT ALL ZONES...N/NW WINDS AVG 20-25 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KT (15-20 KT GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT ON THE RIVERS AND
SOUND). FLOW IS SOMEWHAT OFFSHORE SO SEAS WILL GENLY REMAIN CAPPED
AT AROUND 6 FT AT 20 NM OFF THE COAST (4 FT NEARSHORE). SFC HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ESE FROM THE OH VALLEY THIS
AFTN...ALLOWING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO SUBSIDE.
SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP HEADLINES BY EARLY AFTN FOR THE RIVERS...BY
LATE AFTN FOR THE BAY/SOUND...AND SOMETIME THIS EVENING FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS (TENDING TO PERSIST THE LONGEST OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS).

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...ALLOWING SUB- SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WHILE THERE
REMAINS SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE WATERS TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...ACCOMPANIED BY CAA AND MORE
SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE COAST THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK...WHICH MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS. FLOW WOULD AGAIN BE OFFSHORE FROM THE NW SO SEAS WOULD
TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HAVE HIGHLIGHTED BREEZY/DRY CONDITIONS IN FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS INDICATE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTN. THIS, IN TANDEM WITH DRYING FUELS
AND STILL-GUSTY NNW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER EASTERN SHORE
ZONES WILL YIELD RH IN THE 35% RANGE AND WINDS THAT APPROACH
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. CERTAINLY WORTH HIGHLIGHTING THE THREAT,
ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE DRY FROPA THIS AFTN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ654-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB
FIRE WEATHER...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 190813
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
413 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TODAY...CENTERING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY....LOCATING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR PLOTS DEPICT
SHORTWAVE/STRONG VORT LOBE TRACKING OVER THE ARE THIS EVENING.
LIGHT RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR OVER THE ERN VA PIEDMONT THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...OBS INDICATE NO PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND FROM
8K FT CLOUD DECK. DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S...FURTHER KEEPING PRECIP FROM REACHING THE SFC. WITH
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DECREASING IN CAA...EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN
SPRINKLES EARLY THIS MORNING.

VORT LOBE PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SKIES CLEAR...BECOMING SUNNY-
MOSTLY SUNNY BY MID-MORNING. HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES RECOVER SLIGHTLY
IN WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING OFFSHORE...BUT THE COOL/DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TODAY. H85 TEMPS
AROUND 6C AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
60S...AROUND 1 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL. 10 TO 15 MPH NW WINDS AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL MIX DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW-MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER TO JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE THIS EVENING...BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN
EXCEPTIONAL RADIATION COOLING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S
INLAND (OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS) AROUND MIDNIGHT. UPPER JET STREAK
ACROSS THE NE STATES AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME HIGH CIRRUS OVER THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO IMPACT COOLING. NAM/MET
GUIDANCE INDICATING WARMER TEMPS COMPERED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND
OTHER STAT GUIDANCE. THIS DUE TO LIGHT RETURN FLOW/WAA LATE
TONIGHT. TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD MAV GUIDANCE AS ANY WAA WILL
LIKELY ARRIVE TOO LATE TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING INTO THE MID
30S. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE. NO HEADLINES PLANNED AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO. TEMPS ALONG THE COAST
WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE MONDAY AS SLY RETURN FLOW/WAA
COMMENCES. AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE
REGION TUES AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE AS THE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACH. INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE UPPER
60S.

LOW PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION MON NIGHT AS
THE CLIPPER FRONT REACHES THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS.
MEANWHILE...INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE SE AND MID-ATLANTIC
COASTS. STRONG UPPER VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING UPPER LOW
DROPS INTO THE LOCAL AREA TUES...ENHANCING UVM ALONG THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH PWATS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 1 INCH. MODELS LESS THAN EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP FALLING OVER
THE LOCAL AREA TUES. BASED ON THE VORT MAX AND INCREASING HEIGHTS
ALOFT...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS TUES...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH TUES AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE AND CLOSEST TO THE SFC LOW. ALSO MAINTAIN CHANCE
POPS ALONG THE COAST THANKS TO THE INVERTED TROUGH. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TUES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF AND SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUE NIGHT/WED...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATE THURS INTO FRI. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY TO
REFLECT A 25-40% CHC OF SHOWERS TUE NIGHT/WED (HIGHEST NE
ZONES)...TAPERING TO 20-30% THURSDAY MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
SHORE/COASTAL WATERS. DRY WX RETURNS ALL AREAS FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM AND LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW (WED/THU) SHOULD RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS WED/THU
MID/UPR 50S NW TO LOW/MID 60S SE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE IN
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. FRI/SAT`S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
60S ALL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENLY BKN CIGS WITH BASES AROUND 6-8K FT WILL PERSIST THROUGH
12-15Z...FOLLOWED BY MAINLY SKC OR SCT CU THEREAFTER. EXPECT FAIRLY
GUSTY NW WINDS ONCE AGAIN TODAY...STRONGEST AT KSBY WHERE GUSTS TO
25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z (AVG CLOSER TO 20 KT ELSEWHERE).
CLEAR/LIGHT FLOW TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MON/MON NIGHT/EARLY
TUE. NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY THEN
LINGERS OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WED ALONG WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS. WINDS FROM THE NW
ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER
TO THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES IN EFFECT ALL ZONES...N/NW WINDS AVG 20-25 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KT (15-20 KT GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT ON THE RIVERS AND
SOUND). FLOW IS SOMEWHAT OFFSHORE SO SEAS WILL GENLY REMAIN CAPPED
AT AROUND 6 FT AT 20 NM OFF THE COAST (4 FT NEARSHORE). SFC HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ESE FROM THE OH VALLEY THIS
AFTN...ALLOWING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO SUBSIDE.
SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP HEADLINES BY EARLY AFTN FOR THE RIVERS...BY
LATE AFTN FOR THE BAY/SOUND...AND SOMETIME THIS EVENING FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS (TENDING TO PERSIST THE LONGEST OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS).

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...ALLOWING SUB- SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WHILE THERE
REMAINS SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE WATERS TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...ACCOMPANIED BY CAA AND MORE
SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE COAST THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK...WHICH MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS. FLOW WOULD AGAIN BE OFFSHORE FROM THE NW SO SEAS WOULD
TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HAVE HIGHLIGHTED BREEZY/DRY CONDITIONS IN FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS INDICATE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTN. THIS, IN TANDEM WITH DRYING FUELS
AND STILL-GUSTY NNW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER EASTERN SHORE
ZONES WILL YIELD RH IN THE 35% RANGE AND WINDS THAT APPROACH
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. CERTAINLY WORTH HIGHLIGHTING THE THREAT,
ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE DRY FROPA THIS AFTN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ654-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB
FIRE WEATHER...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 190813
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
413 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TODAY...CENTERING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY....LOCATING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR PLOTS DEPICT
SHORTWAVE/STRONG VORT LOBE TRACKING OVER THE ARE THIS EVENING.
LIGHT RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR OVER THE ERN VA PIEDMONT THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...OBS INDICATE NO PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND FROM
8K FT CLOUD DECK. DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S...FURTHER KEEPING PRECIP FROM REACHING THE SFC. WITH
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DECREASING IN CAA...EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN
SPRINKLES EARLY THIS MORNING.

VORT LOBE PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SKIES CLEAR...BECOMING SUNNY-
MOSTLY SUNNY BY MID-MORNING. HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES RECOVER SLIGHTLY
IN WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING OFFSHORE...BUT THE COOL/DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TODAY. H85 TEMPS
AROUND 6C AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
60S...AROUND 1 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL. 10 TO 15 MPH NW WINDS AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL MIX DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW-MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER TO JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE THIS EVENING...BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN
EXCEPTIONAL RADIATION COOLING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S
INLAND (OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS) AROUND MIDNIGHT. UPPER JET STREAK
ACROSS THE NE STATES AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME HIGH CIRRUS OVER THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO IMPACT COOLING. NAM/MET
GUIDANCE INDICATING WARMER TEMPS COMPERED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND
OTHER STAT GUIDANCE. THIS DUE TO LIGHT RETURN FLOW/WAA LATE
TONIGHT. TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD MAV GUIDANCE AS ANY WAA WILL
LIKELY ARRIVE TOO LATE TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING INTO THE MID
30S. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE. NO HEADLINES PLANNED AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO. TEMPS ALONG THE COAST
WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE MONDAY AS SLY RETURN FLOW/WAA
COMMENCES. AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE
REGION TUES AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE AS THE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACH. INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE UPPER
60S.

LOW PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION MON NIGHT AS
THE CLIPPER FRONT REACHES THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS.
MEANWHILE...INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE SE AND MID-ATLANTIC
COASTS. STRONG UPPER VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING UPPER LOW
DROPS INTO THE LOCAL AREA TUES...ENHANCING UVM ALONG THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH PWATS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 1 INCH. MODELS LESS THAN EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP FALLING OVER
THE LOCAL AREA TUES. BASED ON THE VORT MAX AND INCREASING HEIGHTS
ALOFT...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS TUES...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH TUES AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE AND CLOSEST TO THE SFC LOW. ALSO MAINTAIN CHANCE
POPS ALONG THE COAST THANKS TO THE INVERTED TROUGH. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TUES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF AND SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUE NIGHT/WED...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATE THURS INTO FRI. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY TO
REFLECT A 25-40% CHC OF SHOWERS TUE NIGHT/WED (HIGHEST NE
ZONES)...TAPERING TO 20-30% THURSDAY MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
SHORE/COASTAL WATERS. DRY WX RETURNS ALL AREAS FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM AND LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW (WED/THU) SHOULD RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS WED/THU
MID/UPR 50S NW TO LOW/MID 60S SE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE IN
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. FRI/SAT`S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
60S ALL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENLY BKN CIGS WITH BASES AROUND 6-8K FT WILL PERSIST THROUGH
12-15Z...FOLLOWED BY MAINLY SKC OR SCT CU THEREAFTER. EXPECT FAIRLY
GUSTY NW WINDS ONCE AGAIN TODAY...STRONGEST AT KSBY WHERE GUSTS TO
25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z (AVG CLOSER TO 20 KT ELSEWHERE).
CLEAR/LIGHT FLOW TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MON/MON NIGHT/EARLY
TUE. NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY THEN
LINGERS OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WED ALONG WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS. WINDS FROM THE NW
ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER
TO THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES IN EFFECT ALL ZONES...N/NW WINDS AVG 20-25 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KT (15-20 KT GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT ON THE RIVERS AND
SOUND). FLOW IS SOMEWHAT OFFSHORE SO SEAS WILL GENLY REMAIN CAPPED
AT AROUND 6 FT AT 20 NM OFF THE COAST (4 FT NEARSHORE). SFC HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ESE FROM THE OH VALLEY THIS
AFTN...ALLOWING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO SUBSIDE.
SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP HEADLINES BY EARLY AFTN FOR THE RIVERS...BY
LATE AFTN FOR THE BAY/SOUND...AND SOMETIME THIS EVENING FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS (TENDING TO PERSIST THE LONGEST OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS).

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...ALLOWING SUB- SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WHILE THERE
REMAINS SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE WATERS TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...ACCOMPANIED BY CAA AND MORE
SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE COAST THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK...WHICH MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS. FLOW WOULD AGAIN BE OFFSHORE FROM THE NW SO SEAS WOULD
TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HAVE HIGHLIGHTED BREEZY/DRY CONDITIONS IN FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS INDICATE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTN. THIS, IN TANDEM WITH DRYING FUELS
AND STILL-GUSTY NNW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER EASTERN SHORE
ZONES WILL YIELD RH IN THE 35% RANGE AND WINDS THAT APPROACH
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. CERTAINLY WORTH HIGHLIGHTING THE THREAT,
ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE DRY FROPA THIS AFTN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ654-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB
FIRE WEATHER...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 190813
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
413 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TODAY...CENTERING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY....LOCATING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR PLOTS DEPICT
SHORTWAVE/STRONG VORT LOBE TRACKING OVER THE ARE THIS EVENING.
LIGHT RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR OVER THE ERN VA PIEDMONT THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...OBS INDICATE NO PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND FROM
8K FT CLOUD DECK. DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S...FURTHER KEEPING PRECIP FROM REACHING THE SFC. WITH
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DECREASING IN CAA...EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN
SPRINKLES EARLY THIS MORNING.

VORT LOBE PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SKIES CLEAR...BECOMING SUNNY-
MOSTLY SUNNY BY MID-MORNING. HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES RECOVER SLIGHTLY
IN WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING OFFSHORE...BUT THE COOL/DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TODAY. H85 TEMPS
AROUND 6C AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
60S...AROUND 1 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL. 10 TO 15 MPH NW WINDS AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL MIX DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW-MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER TO JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE THIS EVENING...BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN
EXCEPTIONAL RADIATION COOLING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S
INLAND (OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS) AROUND MIDNIGHT. UPPER JET STREAK
ACROSS THE NE STATES AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME HIGH CIRRUS OVER THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO IMPACT COOLING. NAM/MET
GUIDANCE INDICATING WARMER TEMPS COMPERED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND
OTHER STAT GUIDANCE. THIS DUE TO LIGHT RETURN FLOW/WAA LATE
TONIGHT. TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD MAV GUIDANCE AS ANY WAA WILL
LIKELY ARRIVE TOO LATE TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING INTO THE MID
30S. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE. NO HEADLINES PLANNED AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO. TEMPS ALONG THE COAST
WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE MONDAY AS SLY RETURN FLOW/WAA
COMMENCES. AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE
REGION TUES AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE AS THE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACH. INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE UPPER
60S.

LOW PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION MON NIGHT AS
THE CLIPPER FRONT REACHES THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS.
MEANWHILE...INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE SE AND MID-ATLANTIC
COASTS. STRONG UPPER VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING UPPER LOW
DROPS INTO THE LOCAL AREA TUES...ENHANCING UVM ALONG THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH PWATS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 1 INCH. MODELS LESS THAN EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP FALLING OVER
THE LOCAL AREA TUES. BASED ON THE VORT MAX AND INCREASING HEIGHTS
ALOFT...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS TUES...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH TUES AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE AND CLOSEST TO THE SFC LOW. ALSO MAINTAIN CHANCE
POPS ALONG THE COAST THANKS TO THE INVERTED TROUGH. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TUES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF AND SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUE NIGHT/WED...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATE THURS INTO FRI. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY TO
REFLECT A 25-40% CHC OF SHOWERS TUE NIGHT/WED (HIGHEST NE
ZONES)...TAPERING TO 20-30% THURSDAY MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
SHORE/COASTAL WATERS. DRY WX RETURNS ALL AREAS FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM AND LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW (WED/THU) SHOULD RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS WED/THU
MID/UPR 50S NW TO LOW/MID 60S SE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE IN
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. FRI/SAT`S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
60S ALL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENLY BKN CIGS WITH BASES AROUND 6-8K FT WILL PERSIST THROUGH
12-15Z...FOLLOWED BY MAINLY SKC OR SCT CU THEREAFTER. EXPECT FAIRLY
GUSTY NW WINDS ONCE AGAIN TODAY...STRONGEST AT KSBY WHERE GUSTS TO
25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z (AVG CLOSER TO 20 KT ELSEWHERE).
CLEAR/LIGHT FLOW TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MON/MON NIGHT/EARLY
TUE. NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY THEN
LINGERS OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WED ALONG WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS. WINDS FROM THE NW
ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER
TO THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES IN EFFECT ALL ZONES...N/NW WINDS AVG 20-25 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KT (15-20 KT GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT ON THE RIVERS AND
SOUND). FLOW IS SOMEWHAT OFFSHORE SO SEAS WILL GENLY REMAIN CAPPED
AT AROUND 6 FT AT 20 NM OFF THE COAST (4 FT NEARSHORE). SFC HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ESE FROM THE OH VALLEY THIS
AFTN...ALLOWING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO SUBSIDE.
SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP HEADLINES BY EARLY AFTN FOR THE RIVERS...BY
LATE AFTN FOR THE BAY/SOUND...AND SOMETIME THIS EVENING FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS (TENDING TO PERSIST THE LONGEST OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS).

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...ALLOWING SUB- SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WHILE THERE
REMAINS SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE WATERS TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...ACCOMPANIED BY CAA AND MORE
SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE COAST THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK...WHICH MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS. FLOW WOULD AGAIN BE OFFSHORE FROM THE NW SO SEAS WOULD
TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HAVE HIGHLIGHTED BREEZY/DRY CONDITIONS IN FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS INDICATE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTN. THIS, IN TANDEM WITH DRYING FUELS
AND STILL-GUSTY NNW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER EASTERN SHORE
ZONES WILL YIELD RH IN THE 35% RANGE AND WINDS THAT APPROACH
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. CERTAINLY WORTH HIGHLIGHTING THE THREAT,
ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE DRY FROPA THIS AFTN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ654-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB
FIRE WEATHER...






000
FXUS61 KLWX 190800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CLEAR THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TROUGH MONDAY. A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND PERSIST ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES UPPER TROUGH IS CROSSING THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH IS CORROBORATED BY MID-
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECK AND A BRIEF SURGE OF WIND GUSTS TO AROUND
15-20 KTS IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. BEYOND THAT...IT WILL BE A DRY
PASSAGE FOR MOST OF THE REGION. BEHIND THE TROUGH...SOME UPSLOPE
PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED OVER WV...SO WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE HIGHLANDS. MESONET OB AT 4000 FEET
IN NEARBY TUCKER COUNTY WV INDICATES SURFACE TEMP OF 32
DEGREES...SO LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE RIDGE TOPS. LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL SEE RAIN. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. EARLY MORNING MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS OFF THE ALLEGHENY
HIGHLANDS...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MOST OTHER
LOCATIONS.

DURING THE DAY...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD
EASTWARD AND APPROACH THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. GOOD PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A 995MB LOW PRESSURE
OVER QUEBEC AND THE MARTIMES. THIS...COMBINED WITH COOLING 850MB
TEMPS PROMOTING GOOD MIXING...WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTY
NW WINDS. GUSTS WILL PRIMARILY BE AROUND 20-25 MPH...THOUGH SOME
30MPH GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND
NEAR THE WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 60S. 50S
ELSEWHERE...AND UPPER 40S AT THE RIDGE TOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN SHIFTS SEWD
TO THE NC COAST BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE FOR AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. USED
COMBINATION OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND SREF FOR LOW TEMPS...WHICH ARE
FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS AND
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS. FROST WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONLY UNCERTAINTY REGARDING FROST AND
FREEZING TEMPS WILL BE THE ONSET OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AROUND THE
HIGH AS IT SHIFTS TO THE SE OF US...AND POTENTIAL ARRIVAL OF MID-
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS ASSESS THIS...SO WILL
REFRAIN FROM A FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY...QUICK WARM UP AFTER A CHILLY NIGHT SINCE RETURN FLOW WILL
BE INCREASING AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE SLOWLY
RETURNS WITH SLIGHT POPS FOR RAIN BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. LOW CHANCE POPS THEN SPREAD EAST TO THE BLUE
RIDGE OVERNIGHT AS THE THE PARENT LOW CROSSES BUFFALO NY. THE SFC
TROUGH CROSSES THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW CROSSES THE CWA TUESDAY
NIGHT. LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE CWA AS DOWNSLOPING FLOW
WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL
WITH DOWNSLOPING FLOW COUNTERACTING CLOUD COVER FROM KEEPING
TEMPERATURES TOO LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CUT OFF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. 00Z GFS/ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUNS DEPICTING UPR LOW
CROSSING THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN LINGERING
ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. NWLY FLOW
WITH PERIODIC RAIN...ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. COLD AIR
COMES IN THE WEST SIDE...AND MOISTURE NOW LOOKS GREATER...SO SOME
HIGHLAND SNOW IS POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NW WINDS LATE
TONIGHT...OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15KT POSSIBLE BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE
FREQUENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. GUSTS BECOME MORE FREQUENT
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PREVAILING 20KT GUSTS IN
TAFS...BUT SOME GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE. GUSTS EASE THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE HIGH CENTER CROSSES INTO THE AREA.

VFR CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH RETURN
FLOW. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH
DOWNSLOPING FLOW LIMITING RAIN CHANCES. LOW LINGERS ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW STARTING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NWLY FLOW WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT EXPECTED.
WINDS DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER CROSSES THE BAY
LATE IN THE NIGHT.

RETURN FLOW MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF SHORE. LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTS OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THEN LINGERS OFF
SHORE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. EXTENDED SCA EXPECTED IN NWLY FLOW ON
BACK SIDE OF LOW WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     MDZ501-502.
VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     VAZ025>027-029-503-504.
WV...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     WVZ050-055-501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ531>534-
     537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     535-536-538-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KCS
NEAR TERM...KCS
SHORT TERM...KCS/BAJ
LONG TERM...BAJ
AVIATION...BAJ/KCS
MARINE...BAJ/KCS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 190800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CLEAR THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TROUGH MONDAY. A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND PERSIST ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES UPPER TROUGH IS CROSSING THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH IS CORROBORATED BY MID-
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECK AND A BRIEF SURGE OF WIND GUSTS TO AROUND
15-20 KTS IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. BEYOND THAT...IT WILL BE A DRY
PASSAGE FOR MOST OF THE REGION. BEHIND THE TROUGH...SOME UPSLOPE
PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED OVER WV...SO WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE HIGHLANDS. MESONET OB AT 4000 FEET
IN NEARBY TUCKER COUNTY WV INDICATES SURFACE TEMP OF 32
DEGREES...SO LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE RIDGE TOPS. LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL SEE RAIN. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. EARLY MORNING MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS OFF THE ALLEGHENY
HIGHLANDS...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MOST OTHER
LOCATIONS.

DURING THE DAY...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD
EASTWARD AND APPROACH THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. GOOD PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A 995MB LOW PRESSURE
OVER QUEBEC AND THE MARTIMES. THIS...COMBINED WITH COOLING 850MB
TEMPS PROMOTING GOOD MIXING...WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTY
NW WINDS. GUSTS WILL PRIMARILY BE AROUND 20-25 MPH...THOUGH SOME
30MPH GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND
NEAR THE WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 60S. 50S
ELSEWHERE...AND UPPER 40S AT THE RIDGE TOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN SHIFTS SEWD
TO THE NC COAST BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE FOR AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. USED
COMBINATION OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND SREF FOR LOW TEMPS...WHICH ARE
FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS AND
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS. FROST WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONLY UNCERTAINTY REGARDING FROST AND
FREEZING TEMPS WILL BE THE ONSET OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AROUND THE
HIGH AS IT SHIFTS TO THE SE OF US...AND POTENTIAL ARRIVAL OF MID-
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS ASSESS THIS...SO WILL
REFRAIN FROM A FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY...QUICK WARM UP AFTER A CHILLY NIGHT SINCE RETURN FLOW WILL
BE INCREASING AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE SLOWLY
RETURNS WITH SLIGHT POPS FOR RAIN BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. LOW CHANCE POPS THEN SPREAD EAST TO THE BLUE
RIDGE OVERNIGHT AS THE THE PARENT LOW CROSSES BUFFALO NY. THE SFC
TROUGH CROSSES THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW CROSSES THE CWA TUESDAY
NIGHT. LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE CWA AS DOWNSLOPING FLOW
WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL
WITH DOWNSLOPING FLOW COUNTERACTING CLOUD COVER FROM KEEPING
TEMPERATURES TOO LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CUT OFF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. 00Z GFS/ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUNS DEPICTING UPR LOW
CROSSING THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN LINGERING
ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. NWLY FLOW
WITH PERIODIC RAIN...ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. COLD AIR
COMES IN THE WEST SIDE...AND MOISTURE NOW LOOKS GREATER...SO SOME
HIGHLAND SNOW IS POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NW WINDS LATE
TONIGHT...OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15KT POSSIBLE BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE
FREQUENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. GUSTS BECOME MORE FREQUENT
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PREVAILING 20KT GUSTS IN
TAFS...BUT SOME GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE. GUSTS EASE THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE HIGH CENTER CROSSES INTO THE AREA.

VFR CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH RETURN
FLOW. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH
DOWNSLOPING FLOW LIMITING RAIN CHANCES. LOW LINGERS ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW STARTING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NWLY FLOW WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT EXPECTED.
WINDS DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER CROSSES THE BAY
LATE IN THE NIGHT.

RETURN FLOW MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF SHORE. LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTS OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THEN LINGERS OFF
SHORE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. EXTENDED SCA EXPECTED IN NWLY FLOW ON
BACK SIDE OF LOW WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     MDZ501-502.
VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     VAZ025>027-029-503-504.
WV...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     WVZ050-055-501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ531>534-
     537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     535-536-538-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KCS
NEAR TERM...KCS
SHORT TERM...KCS/BAJ
LONG TERM...BAJ
AVIATION...BAJ/KCS
MARINE...BAJ/KCS







000
FXUS61 KPHI 190745
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
345 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY TODAY WILL MOVE
EAST AND CREST OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL
THEN MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE MOVING AWAY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER AT 500MB WHILE A
COMPROMISE OF BOTH THE WRF AND GFS WORKED BEST AT 850MB AND 925MB.

IF ANYONE WONDERED WHERE OCTOBER WENT, ITS BACK TODAY. IT WILL
FEATURE A BLUSTERY FALL FEEL TO IT. ONE SHORT WAVE DOWN AND ONE TO
GO THIS MORNING AS THE LONG WAVE TROF CLEARS OUR CWA. CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAST SHORT WAVE IS NOW MOVING ACROSS OUR CWA AND
SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST BY ABOUT 13Z.

THERE IS STILL THE MATTER OF THE NW FLOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST SOME LAKE ENHANCED PCPN MIGHT JUST MAKE IT
INTO OUR POCONO CWA BEFORE DISSIPATING. WE CARRY A CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES EARLY THERE. AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES, THE FCST
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS AND THE CONVECTIVE TEMPS BECOME HARDER
TO REACH. THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING NORTH UNTIL THIS COMES TO FRUITION. LESS CLOUDINESS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF OUR CWA. TEMPS HAVE
FOUND A WAY TO OUTDO GUIDANCE AND WHILE LOCAL PROCEDURES SUGGEST
GOING LOWER, WE KEPT CONTINUITY. IT WILL BE BREEZY/BLUSTERY TODAY,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MID DAY HOURS WHEN MIXING SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED.
PEAK GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH ARE LIKELY. IF THIS WERE HALLOWEEN,
THE GREAT PUMPKIN WOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM GETTING AIRBORNE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF OUR
CWA NORTH OF DELMARVA EXCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE PHILADELPHIA AREA.

BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF THE 925MB AND 850MB INITIALIZATION, WE USED
A STRAIGHT STAT GUIDANCE BLEND FOR MINS. WHERE THIS GAVE US
PREDOMINATE MINS OF FREEZING OR LESS IN THE COUNTIES, WE WENT WITH
FREEZE WARNINGS. THE NJ PINE BARRENS FIND A WAY TO RADIATE LIKE THE
BEST OF THEM. HERE WE WENT BELOW STAT GUIDANCE FOR THE FREEZE
WARNING. THE FROST ADVISORY MAINLY SURROUNDS THESE COLDER SPOTS AND
MOST LIKELY TO COME TO FRUITION IN THE MORE RURAL LOW LYING AREAS OF
THOSE COUNTIES INCLUDED. IN DELMARVA, DEW POINTS ARE PREDICTED TO BE
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS AND CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IS TOO LOW AT THIS
TIME. WE WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF PATCHY FROST IN THE AFD.

WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE QUICKLY TONIGHT AND TEMPS DROP LIKE A ROCK
DURING THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT A JET STREAK IS PREDICTED TO PASS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA WITH CIRRUS LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING. THERE IS RIDGING PREDICTED ALOFT AND NO PREDICTED OMEGA
AT THE SUB CIRRUS LEVEL. THE COMBINATION LED TO OUR DECISION NORTH
THAT THE CIRRUS MAY NOT BE THICK ENOUGH TO HOLD TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING.

AS WE MOVE FARTHER SOUTH, THE ENTRANCE REGION TO THAT JET STREAK
ARRIVES LATER AT NIGHT WITH LESS MOISTURE AND LESS TIME TO PREVENT
FROST/FREEZING TEMPS FROM OCCURRING. THIS IS ALSO WHY DELMARVA WILL
BE LOOKED CLOSELY TODAY AS THEY SHOULD HAVE LITTLE CIRRUS OVERNIGHT.
FAR FAR NORTH MIGHT BE SAVED BY THE CIRRUS (CONFIDENCE TOO LOW ABOUT
THAT TO NOT ISSUE A WARNING). BETWEEN THERE SHOULD BE A SWEET SPOT
WHERE DEW POINTS ARE LOW ENOUGH AND THE CIRRUS ARRIVES TOO LATE.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE LEHIGH AND RARITAN VALLEYS.

THIS IS RATHER LATE FOR A FREEZE OR A WIDESPREAD FROST (THERE WAS
SOME FROST INTO THE PHL NW SUBURBS EARLIER THIS MONTH) TO AFFECT OUR
CWA. THE PLUS SIDE IS THAT IF PROTECTIVE MEASURES SUCCEED TONIGHT,
FREEZING OR FROSTY CONDITIONS ARE NOT ON TAP FOR A WHILE.
WE BROUGHT IN OUR MEYER LEMON TREE INDOORS YESTERDAY ANYWAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CRESTING OVER THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING BEFORE MOVING EAST. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 50S NORTH AND MID 50S OT LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.

MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND A DEEPENING
H5 LOW WILL BE WEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A
RATHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS
FIRST FEW DAYS WILL BE SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.
SLGT CHC POPS MON NIGHT WILL INCREASE TO HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS BY
TUE NIGHT. HIGHS TUE WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW/MID 60S NORTH AND
MID/UPPER 60S SOUTH.

WED THRU THU NIGHT...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH THE H5
LOW/TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA WED AND THE SFC LOW JUST AHEAD OF IT.
FREQUENT PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WE HAVE KEPT THE POPS OFFERED BY WPC WHICH ARE MOSTLY HIGH
CHC CATEGORY WED THRU THU...THEN SLGT CHC THU NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MOSTLY BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

FRI THRU SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME ALONG WITH MILDER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY AND POINTS SOUTH/EAST WILL
REACH THE LOW 60S FRI/SAT WHILE READINGS ACROSS THE NORTH/WEST WILL
BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z TAFS WERE VFR.

REST OF THE NIGHT...MAINLY A MID DECK VFR CIG FCST WITH WEST
WINDS CLOSE TO 10 KTS. HIGHER TERRAIN AIRPORTS WILL SEE SOME MVFR
CIGS. NOT SURE ABOUT KABE REMAINING VFR.

SUNDAY DAY...VFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT AIRPORTS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF
PHILADELPHIA AND INTERSTATE 195 IN NJ. EVEN SOME MVFR CIGS EARLY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ELSEWHERE MAINLY JUST A SCATTERED DECK OF CU
CLOUDS AFTER 12Z OR 13Z. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTINESS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. STAT GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING THE PEAK WINDS SHOULD OCCUR BY ABOUT 18Z. CLEARING OR
CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS TOWARD SUNSET.

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH LIGHTER NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST TERMINALS. ANY CLOUDS WILL BE AT CIRRUS
LEVEL AND MORE LIKELY LATER AT NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MON AND MON NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
     FEW SHOWERS MON NIGHT.
TUE THRU THU...UNSETTLED WITH CLOUDS AND FREQUENT SHOWERS. MOSTLY
     VFR BUT OCNL LOWER CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN SHOWERS.


&&

.MARINE...
STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS PREDICTED FOR TODAY. NW WINDS
SHOULD PEAK AROUND 30 KNOTS. TONIGHT WE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS IN DELAWARE BAY AND LEFT THE SAME
ENDING TIME ON THE OCEAN. IN ALL LOCATIONS, THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND SEAS AND SWELLS ON THE OCEAN
SHOULD FALL BELOW 5 FEET BY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
MON THRU TUE NIGHT...SUB VFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUE/TUE NIGHT.
WED THRU FRIDAY...SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WED AND LASTING INTO FRI.


&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ054-055-061-
     062.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ060-101>106.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ020>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>019-023.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 190745
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
345 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY TODAY WILL MOVE
EAST AND CREST OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL
THEN MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE MOVING AWAY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER AT 500MB WHILE A
COMPROMISE OF BOTH THE WRF AND GFS WORKED BEST AT 850MB AND 925MB.

IF ANYONE WONDERED WHERE OCTOBER WENT, ITS BACK TODAY. IT WILL
FEATURE A BLUSTERY FALL FEEL TO IT. ONE SHORT WAVE DOWN AND ONE TO
GO THIS MORNING AS THE LONG WAVE TROF CLEARS OUR CWA. CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAST SHORT WAVE IS NOW MOVING ACROSS OUR CWA AND
SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST BY ABOUT 13Z.

THERE IS STILL THE MATTER OF THE NW FLOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST SOME LAKE ENHANCED PCPN MIGHT JUST MAKE IT
INTO OUR POCONO CWA BEFORE DISSIPATING. WE CARRY A CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES EARLY THERE. AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES, THE FCST
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS AND THE CONVECTIVE TEMPS BECOME HARDER
TO REACH. THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING NORTH UNTIL THIS COMES TO FRUITION. LESS CLOUDINESS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF OUR CWA. TEMPS HAVE
FOUND A WAY TO OUTDO GUIDANCE AND WHILE LOCAL PROCEDURES SUGGEST
GOING LOWER, WE KEPT CONTINUITY. IT WILL BE BREEZY/BLUSTERY TODAY,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MID DAY HOURS WHEN MIXING SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED.
PEAK GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH ARE LIKELY. IF THIS WERE HALLOWEEN,
THE GREAT PUMPKIN WOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM GETTING AIRBORNE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF OUR
CWA NORTH OF DELMARVA EXCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE PHILADELPHIA AREA.

BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF THE 925MB AND 850MB INITIALIZATION, WE USED
A STRAIGHT STAT GUIDANCE BLEND FOR MINS. WHERE THIS GAVE US
PREDOMINATE MINS OF FREEZING OR LESS IN THE COUNTIES, WE WENT WITH
FREEZE WARNINGS. THE NJ PINE BARRENS FIND A WAY TO RADIATE LIKE THE
BEST OF THEM. HERE WE WENT BELOW STAT GUIDANCE FOR THE FREEZE
WARNING. THE FROST ADVISORY MAINLY SURROUNDS THESE COLDER SPOTS AND
MOST LIKELY TO COME TO FRUITION IN THE MORE RURAL LOW LYING AREAS OF
THOSE COUNTIES INCLUDED. IN DELMARVA, DEW POINTS ARE PREDICTED TO BE
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS AND CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IS TOO LOW AT THIS
TIME. WE WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF PATCHY FROST IN THE AFD.

WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE QUICKLY TONIGHT AND TEMPS DROP LIKE A ROCK
DURING THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT A JET STREAK IS PREDICTED TO PASS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA WITH CIRRUS LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING. THERE IS RIDGING PREDICTED ALOFT AND NO PREDICTED OMEGA
AT THE SUB CIRRUS LEVEL. THE COMBINATION LED TO OUR DECISION NORTH
THAT THE CIRRUS MAY NOT BE THICK ENOUGH TO HOLD TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING.

AS WE MOVE FARTHER SOUTH, THE ENTRANCE REGION TO THAT JET STREAK
ARRIVES LATER AT NIGHT WITH LESS MOISTURE AND LESS TIME TO PREVENT
FROST/FREEZING TEMPS FROM OCCURRING. THIS IS ALSO WHY DELMARVA WILL
BE LOOKED CLOSELY TODAY AS THEY SHOULD HAVE LITTLE CIRRUS OVERNIGHT.
FAR FAR NORTH MIGHT BE SAVED BY THE CIRRUS (CONFIDENCE TOO LOW ABOUT
THAT TO NOT ISSUE A WARNING). BETWEEN THERE SHOULD BE A SWEET SPOT
WHERE DEW POINTS ARE LOW ENOUGH AND THE CIRRUS ARRIVES TOO LATE.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE LEHIGH AND RARITAN VALLEYS.

THIS IS RATHER LATE FOR A FREEZE OR A WIDESPREAD FROST (THERE WAS
SOME FROST INTO THE PHL NW SUBURBS EARLIER THIS MONTH) TO AFFECT OUR
CWA. THE PLUS SIDE IS THAT IF PROTECTIVE MEASURES SUCCEED TONIGHT,
FREEZING OR FROSTY CONDITIONS ARE NOT ON TAP FOR A WHILE.
WE BROUGHT IN OUR MEYER LEMON TREE INDOORS YESTERDAY ANYWAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CRESTING OVER THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING BEFORE MOVING EAST. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 50S NORTH AND MID 50S OT LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.

MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND A DEEPENING
H5 LOW WILL BE WEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A
RATHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS
FIRST FEW DAYS WILL BE SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.
SLGT CHC POPS MON NIGHT WILL INCREASE TO HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS BY
TUE NIGHT. HIGHS TUE WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW/MID 60S NORTH AND
MID/UPPER 60S SOUTH.

WED THRU THU NIGHT...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH THE H5
LOW/TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA WED AND THE SFC LOW JUST AHEAD OF IT.
FREQUENT PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WE HAVE KEPT THE POPS OFFERED BY WPC WHICH ARE MOSTLY HIGH
CHC CATEGORY WED THRU THU...THEN SLGT CHC THU NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MOSTLY BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

FRI THRU SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME ALONG WITH MILDER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY AND POINTS SOUTH/EAST WILL
REACH THE LOW 60S FRI/SAT WHILE READINGS ACROSS THE NORTH/WEST WILL
BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z TAFS WERE VFR.

REST OF THE NIGHT...MAINLY A MID DECK VFR CIG FCST WITH WEST
WINDS CLOSE TO 10 KTS. HIGHER TERRAIN AIRPORTS WILL SEE SOME MVFR
CIGS. NOT SURE ABOUT KABE REMAINING VFR.

SUNDAY DAY...VFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT AIRPORTS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF
PHILADELPHIA AND INTERSTATE 195 IN NJ. EVEN SOME MVFR CIGS EARLY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ELSEWHERE MAINLY JUST A SCATTERED DECK OF CU
CLOUDS AFTER 12Z OR 13Z. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTINESS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. STAT GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING THE PEAK WINDS SHOULD OCCUR BY ABOUT 18Z. CLEARING OR
CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS TOWARD SUNSET.

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH LIGHTER NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST TERMINALS. ANY CLOUDS WILL BE AT CIRRUS
LEVEL AND MORE LIKELY LATER AT NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MON AND MON NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
     FEW SHOWERS MON NIGHT.
TUE THRU THU...UNSETTLED WITH CLOUDS AND FREQUENT SHOWERS. MOSTLY
     VFR BUT OCNL LOWER CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN SHOWERS.


&&

.MARINE...
STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS PREDICTED FOR TODAY. NW WINDS
SHOULD PEAK AROUND 30 KNOTS. TONIGHT WE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS IN DELAWARE BAY AND LEFT THE SAME
ENDING TIME ON THE OCEAN. IN ALL LOCATIONS, THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND SEAS AND SWELLS ON THE OCEAN
SHOULD FALL BELOW 5 FEET BY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
MON THRU TUE NIGHT...SUB VFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUE/TUE NIGHT.
WED THRU FRIDAY...SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WED AND LASTING INTO FRI.


&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ054-055-061-
     062.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ060-101>106.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ020>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>019-023.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 190745
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
345 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY TODAY WILL MOVE
EAST AND CREST OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL
THEN MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE MOVING AWAY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER AT 500MB WHILE A
COMPROMISE OF BOTH THE WRF AND GFS WORKED BEST AT 850MB AND 925MB.

IF ANYONE WONDERED WHERE OCTOBER WENT, ITS BACK TODAY. IT WILL
FEATURE A BLUSTERY FALL FEEL TO IT. ONE SHORT WAVE DOWN AND ONE TO
GO THIS MORNING AS THE LONG WAVE TROF CLEARS OUR CWA. CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAST SHORT WAVE IS NOW MOVING ACROSS OUR CWA AND
SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST BY ABOUT 13Z.

THERE IS STILL THE MATTER OF THE NW FLOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST SOME LAKE ENHANCED PCPN MIGHT JUST MAKE IT
INTO OUR POCONO CWA BEFORE DISSIPATING. WE CARRY A CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES EARLY THERE. AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES, THE FCST
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS AND THE CONVECTIVE TEMPS BECOME HARDER
TO REACH. THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING NORTH UNTIL THIS COMES TO FRUITION. LESS CLOUDINESS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF OUR CWA. TEMPS HAVE
FOUND A WAY TO OUTDO GUIDANCE AND WHILE LOCAL PROCEDURES SUGGEST
GOING LOWER, WE KEPT CONTINUITY. IT WILL BE BREEZY/BLUSTERY TODAY,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MID DAY HOURS WHEN MIXING SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED.
PEAK GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH ARE LIKELY. IF THIS WERE HALLOWEEN,
THE GREAT PUMPKIN WOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM GETTING AIRBORNE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF OUR
CWA NORTH OF DELMARVA EXCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE PHILADELPHIA AREA.

BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF THE 925MB AND 850MB INITIALIZATION, WE USED
A STRAIGHT STAT GUIDANCE BLEND FOR MINS. WHERE THIS GAVE US
PREDOMINATE MINS OF FREEZING OR LESS IN THE COUNTIES, WE WENT WITH
FREEZE WARNINGS. THE NJ PINE BARRENS FIND A WAY TO RADIATE LIKE THE
BEST OF THEM. HERE WE WENT BELOW STAT GUIDANCE FOR THE FREEZE
WARNING. THE FROST ADVISORY MAINLY SURROUNDS THESE COLDER SPOTS AND
MOST LIKELY TO COME TO FRUITION IN THE MORE RURAL LOW LYING AREAS OF
THOSE COUNTIES INCLUDED. IN DELMARVA, DEW POINTS ARE PREDICTED TO BE
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS AND CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IS TOO LOW AT THIS
TIME. WE WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF PATCHY FROST IN THE AFD.

WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE QUICKLY TONIGHT AND TEMPS DROP LIKE A ROCK
DURING THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT A JET STREAK IS PREDICTED TO PASS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA WITH CIRRUS LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING. THERE IS RIDGING PREDICTED ALOFT AND NO PREDICTED OMEGA
AT THE SUB CIRRUS LEVEL. THE COMBINATION LED TO OUR DECISION NORTH
THAT THE CIRRUS MAY NOT BE THICK ENOUGH TO HOLD TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING.

AS WE MOVE FARTHER SOUTH, THE ENTRANCE REGION TO THAT JET STREAK
ARRIVES LATER AT NIGHT WITH LESS MOISTURE AND LESS TIME TO PREVENT
FROST/FREEZING TEMPS FROM OCCURRING. THIS IS ALSO WHY DELMARVA WILL
BE LOOKED CLOSELY TODAY AS THEY SHOULD HAVE LITTLE CIRRUS OVERNIGHT.
FAR FAR NORTH MIGHT BE SAVED BY THE CIRRUS (CONFIDENCE TOO LOW ABOUT
THAT TO NOT ISSUE A WARNING). BETWEEN THERE SHOULD BE A SWEET SPOT
WHERE DEW POINTS ARE LOW ENOUGH AND THE CIRRUS ARRIVES TOO LATE.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE LEHIGH AND RARITAN VALLEYS.

THIS IS RATHER LATE FOR A FREEZE OR A WIDESPREAD FROST (THERE WAS
SOME FROST INTO THE PHL NW SUBURBS EARLIER THIS MONTH) TO AFFECT OUR
CWA. THE PLUS SIDE IS THAT IF PROTECTIVE MEASURES SUCCEED TONIGHT,
FREEZING OR FROSTY CONDITIONS ARE NOT ON TAP FOR A WHILE.
WE BROUGHT IN OUR MEYER LEMON TREE INDOORS YESTERDAY ANYWAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CRESTING OVER THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING BEFORE MOVING EAST. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 50S NORTH AND MID 50S OT LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.

MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND A DEEPENING
H5 LOW WILL BE WEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A
RATHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS
FIRST FEW DAYS WILL BE SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.
SLGT CHC POPS MON NIGHT WILL INCREASE TO HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS BY
TUE NIGHT. HIGHS TUE WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW/MID 60S NORTH AND
MID/UPPER 60S SOUTH.

WED THRU THU NIGHT...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH THE H5
LOW/TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA WED AND THE SFC LOW JUST AHEAD OF IT.
FREQUENT PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WE HAVE KEPT THE POPS OFFERED BY WPC WHICH ARE MOSTLY HIGH
CHC CATEGORY WED THRU THU...THEN SLGT CHC THU NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MOSTLY BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

FRI THRU SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME ALONG WITH MILDER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY AND POINTS SOUTH/EAST WILL
REACH THE LOW 60S FRI/SAT WHILE READINGS ACROSS THE NORTH/WEST WILL
BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z TAFS WERE VFR.

REST OF THE NIGHT...MAINLY A MID DECK VFR CIG FCST WITH WEST
WINDS CLOSE TO 10 KTS. HIGHER TERRAIN AIRPORTS WILL SEE SOME MVFR
CIGS. NOT SURE ABOUT KABE REMAINING VFR.

SUNDAY DAY...VFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT AIRPORTS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF
PHILADELPHIA AND INTERSTATE 195 IN NJ. EVEN SOME MVFR CIGS EARLY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ELSEWHERE MAINLY JUST A SCATTERED DECK OF CU
CLOUDS AFTER 12Z OR 13Z. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTINESS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. STAT GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING THE PEAK WINDS SHOULD OCCUR BY ABOUT 18Z. CLEARING OR
CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS TOWARD SUNSET.

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH LIGHTER NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST TERMINALS. ANY CLOUDS WILL BE AT CIRRUS
LEVEL AND MORE LIKELY LATER AT NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MON AND MON NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
     FEW SHOWERS MON NIGHT.
TUE THRU THU...UNSETTLED WITH CLOUDS AND FREQUENT SHOWERS. MOSTLY
     VFR BUT OCNL LOWER CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN SHOWERS.


&&

.MARINE...
STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS PREDICTED FOR TODAY. NW WINDS
SHOULD PEAK AROUND 30 KNOTS. TONIGHT WE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS IN DELAWARE BAY AND LEFT THE SAME
ENDING TIME ON THE OCEAN. IN ALL LOCATIONS, THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND SEAS AND SWELLS ON THE OCEAN
SHOULD FALL BELOW 5 FEET BY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
MON THRU TUE NIGHT...SUB VFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUE/TUE NIGHT.
WED THRU FRIDAY...SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WED AND LASTING INTO FRI.


&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ054-055-061-
     062.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ060-101>106.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ020>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>019-023.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 190745
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
345 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY TODAY WILL MOVE
EAST AND CREST OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL
THEN MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE MOVING AWAY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER AT 500MB WHILE A
COMPROMISE OF BOTH THE WRF AND GFS WORKED BEST AT 850MB AND 925MB.

IF ANYONE WONDERED WHERE OCTOBER WENT, ITS BACK TODAY. IT WILL
FEATURE A BLUSTERY FALL FEEL TO IT. ONE SHORT WAVE DOWN AND ONE TO
GO THIS MORNING AS THE LONG WAVE TROF CLEARS OUR CWA. CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAST SHORT WAVE IS NOW MOVING ACROSS OUR CWA AND
SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST BY ABOUT 13Z.

THERE IS STILL THE MATTER OF THE NW FLOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST SOME LAKE ENHANCED PCPN MIGHT JUST MAKE IT
INTO OUR POCONO CWA BEFORE DISSIPATING. WE CARRY A CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES EARLY THERE. AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES, THE FCST
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS AND THE CONVECTIVE TEMPS BECOME HARDER
TO REACH. THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING NORTH UNTIL THIS COMES TO FRUITION. LESS CLOUDINESS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF OUR CWA. TEMPS HAVE
FOUND A WAY TO OUTDO GUIDANCE AND WHILE LOCAL PROCEDURES SUGGEST
GOING LOWER, WE KEPT CONTINUITY. IT WILL BE BREEZY/BLUSTERY TODAY,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MID DAY HOURS WHEN MIXING SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED.
PEAK GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH ARE LIKELY. IF THIS WERE HALLOWEEN,
THE GREAT PUMPKIN WOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM GETTING AIRBORNE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF OUR
CWA NORTH OF DELMARVA EXCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE PHILADELPHIA AREA.

BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF THE 925MB AND 850MB INITIALIZATION, WE USED
A STRAIGHT STAT GUIDANCE BLEND FOR MINS. WHERE THIS GAVE US
PREDOMINATE MINS OF FREEZING OR LESS IN THE COUNTIES, WE WENT WITH
FREEZE WARNINGS. THE NJ PINE BARRENS FIND A WAY TO RADIATE LIKE THE
BEST OF THEM. HERE WE WENT BELOW STAT GUIDANCE FOR THE FREEZE
WARNING. THE FROST ADVISORY MAINLY SURROUNDS THESE COLDER SPOTS AND
MOST LIKELY TO COME TO FRUITION IN THE MORE RURAL LOW LYING AREAS OF
THOSE COUNTIES INCLUDED. IN DELMARVA, DEW POINTS ARE PREDICTED TO BE
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS AND CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IS TOO LOW AT THIS
TIME. WE WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF PATCHY FROST IN THE AFD.

WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE QUICKLY TONIGHT AND TEMPS DROP LIKE A ROCK
DURING THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT A JET STREAK IS PREDICTED TO PASS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA WITH CIRRUS LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING. THERE IS RIDGING PREDICTED ALOFT AND NO PREDICTED OMEGA
AT THE SUB CIRRUS LEVEL. THE COMBINATION LED TO OUR DECISION NORTH
THAT THE CIRRUS MAY NOT BE THICK ENOUGH TO HOLD TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING.

AS WE MOVE FARTHER SOUTH, THE ENTRANCE REGION TO THAT JET STREAK
ARRIVES LATER AT NIGHT WITH LESS MOISTURE AND LESS TIME TO PREVENT
FROST/FREEZING TEMPS FROM OCCURRING. THIS IS ALSO WHY DELMARVA WILL
BE LOOKED CLOSELY TODAY AS THEY SHOULD HAVE LITTLE CIRRUS OVERNIGHT.
FAR FAR NORTH MIGHT BE SAVED BY THE CIRRUS (CONFIDENCE TOO LOW ABOUT
THAT TO NOT ISSUE A WARNING). BETWEEN THERE SHOULD BE A SWEET SPOT
WHERE DEW POINTS ARE LOW ENOUGH AND THE CIRRUS ARRIVES TOO LATE.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE LEHIGH AND RARITAN VALLEYS.

THIS IS RATHER LATE FOR A FREEZE OR A WIDESPREAD FROST (THERE WAS
SOME FROST INTO THE PHL NW SUBURBS EARLIER THIS MONTH) TO AFFECT OUR
CWA. THE PLUS SIDE IS THAT IF PROTECTIVE MEASURES SUCCEED TONIGHT,
FREEZING OR FROSTY CONDITIONS ARE NOT ON TAP FOR A WHILE.
WE BROUGHT IN OUR MEYER LEMON TREE INDOORS YESTERDAY ANYWAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CRESTING OVER THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING BEFORE MOVING EAST. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 50S NORTH AND MID 50S OT LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.

MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND A DEEPENING
H5 LOW WILL BE WEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A
RATHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS
FIRST FEW DAYS WILL BE SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.
SLGT CHC POPS MON NIGHT WILL INCREASE TO HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS BY
TUE NIGHT. HIGHS TUE WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW/MID 60S NORTH AND
MID/UPPER 60S SOUTH.

WED THRU THU NIGHT...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH THE H5
LOW/TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA WED AND THE SFC LOW JUST AHEAD OF IT.
FREQUENT PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WE HAVE KEPT THE POPS OFFERED BY WPC WHICH ARE MOSTLY HIGH
CHC CATEGORY WED THRU THU...THEN SLGT CHC THU NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MOSTLY BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

FRI THRU SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME ALONG WITH MILDER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY AND POINTS SOUTH/EAST WILL
REACH THE LOW 60S FRI/SAT WHILE READINGS ACROSS THE NORTH/WEST WILL
BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z TAFS WERE VFR.

REST OF THE NIGHT...MAINLY A MID DECK VFR CIG FCST WITH WEST
WINDS CLOSE TO 10 KTS. HIGHER TERRAIN AIRPORTS WILL SEE SOME MVFR
CIGS. NOT SURE ABOUT KABE REMAINING VFR.

SUNDAY DAY...VFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT AIRPORTS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF
PHILADELPHIA AND INTERSTATE 195 IN NJ. EVEN SOME MVFR CIGS EARLY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ELSEWHERE MAINLY JUST A SCATTERED DECK OF CU
CLOUDS AFTER 12Z OR 13Z. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTINESS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. STAT GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING THE PEAK WINDS SHOULD OCCUR BY ABOUT 18Z. CLEARING OR
CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS TOWARD SUNSET.

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH LIGHTER NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST TERMINALS. ANY CLOUDS WILL BE AT CIRRUS
LEVEL AND MORE LIKELY LATER AT NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MON AND MON NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
     FEW SHOWERS MON NIGHT.
TUE THRU THU...UNSETTLED WITH CLOUDS AND FREQUENT SHOWERS. MOSTLY
     VFR BUT OCNL LOWER CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN SHOWERS.


&&

.MARINE...
STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS PREDICTED FOR TODAY. NW WINDS
SHOULD PEAK AROUND 30 KNOTS. TONIGHT WE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS IN DELAWARE BAY AND LEFT THE SAME
ENDING TIME ON THE OCEAN. IN ALL LOCATIONS, THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND SEAS AND SWELLS ON THE OCEAN
SHOULD FALL BELOW 5 FEET BY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
MON THRU TUE NIGHT...SUB VFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUE/TUE NIGHT.
WED THRU FRIDAY...SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WED AND LASTING INTO FRI.


&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ054-055-061-
     062.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ060-101>106.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ020>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>019-023.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KLWX 190714
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
314 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CLEAR THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...WITH
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TROUGH MONDAY. A SLOW MOVING
CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOVER AROUND THE EAST
COAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
OVERNIGHT WHILE A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE COAST. A
NORTHWEST FLOW IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN
CHILLIER AIR DURING THIS TIME.

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING SOME
CLOUDS WITH IT BUT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT AND CONFINED TO
LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WHERE THERE IS AN
UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH COLD
AIR FOR A FEW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS...BUT
LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS OFF THE
ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MOST
OTHER LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
UPDATE...A FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS...ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
SHENANDOAH VALLEY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER ENTERS THE CWA FROM THE WEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MOVING OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY NWLY FLOW
THROUGH SUNDAY...EXPECT 30 MPH GUSTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL WARM AS IT DESCENDS WITH MORNING CLOUDS OVER
THE MOUNTAIN QUICKLY DISSIPATING (ALONG WITH ANY LIGHT WINTRY MIX
PRECIP WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT). MAX TEMPS GENERALLY MID TO
UPR 50S AT LOWER ELEVATION. 60F POSSIBLE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
EVENING...TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BY SUNRISE. CLEAR...CALM...AND DRY
WILL MAKE FOR AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOL NIGHT. MIN TEMPS AROUND
FREEZING LIKELY PIEDMONT AND VALLEYS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
(INVERSION FOR RIDGES). COULD NEED A FROST OR FREEZE HEADLINE FOR
NEARLY ALL OF THE CWA (GRIDDED GUIDANCE GENERALLY HAS A WARM BIAS
FOR INTERIOR SOUTHERN MARYLAND ON CLEAR/CALM NIGHTS). LOW TO MID 40S
FOR URBAN/NEAR SHORE.

RETURN FLOW MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE RETURNS WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING
TROUGH. UPR TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ECMWF HAS 500MB CUT-OFF LOW OVER WESTERN PA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH VORT
MAX DROPPING DOWN WEST SIDE OF TROUGH. VORT MAX WILL ROUND THE
BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS CWA LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY EVENING. BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE PATTERN WILL SET UP OVER CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. CWA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH
WITH SHORTWAVE CROSSING AREA FRIDAY.

ALTHOUGH ANTICIPATED PATH OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL KEEP THE STRONGEST
OF ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION IN PA...OUR CWA LOOKS TO GET WET ALSO.
GREATEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NW WINDS LATE
TONIGHT...OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15KT POSSIBLE BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE
FREQUENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. GUSTS BECOME MORE FREQUENT
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PREVAILING 20KT GUSTS IN
TAFS...BUT SOME GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE. GUSTS EASE THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE HIGH CENTER CROSSES INTO THE AREA.

VFR CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING. LOW
LINGERS INTO LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NWLY FLOW WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT EXPECTED.
WINDS DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER CROSSES THE BAY
LATE IN THE NIGHT.

RETURN FLOW MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTS OVER THE REGION THEN INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     MDZ501-502.
VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     VAZ025>027-029-503-504.
WV...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     WVZ050-055-501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ531>534-
     537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     535-536-538-542.

&&

$$
UPDATES TO SHORT TERM...AVIATION AND MARINE...KCS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 190714
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
314 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CLEAR THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...WITH
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TROUGH MONDAY. A SLOW MOVING
CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOVER AROUND THE EAST
COAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
OVERNIGHT WHILE A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE COAST. A
NORTHWEST FLOW IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN
CHILLIER AIR DURING THIS TIME.

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING SOME
CLOUDS WITH IT BUT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT AND CONFINED TO
LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WHERE THERE IS AN
UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH COLD
AIR FOR A FEW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS...BUT
LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS OFF THE
ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MOST
OTHER LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
UPDATE...A FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS...ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
SHENANDOAH VALLEY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER ENTERS THE CWA FROM THE WEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MOVING OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY NWLY FLOW
THROUGH SUNDAY...EXPECT 30 MPH GUSTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL WARM AS IT DESCENDS WITH MORNING CLOUDS OVER
THE MOUNTAIN QUICKLY DISSIPATING (ALONG WITH ANY LIGHT WINTRY MIX
PRECIP WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT). MAX TEMPS GENERALLY MID TO
UPR 50S AT LOWER ELEVATION. 60F POSSIBLE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
EVENING...TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BY SUNRISE. CLEAR...CALM...AND DRY
WILL MAKE FOR AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOL NIGHT. MIN TEMPS AROUND
FREEZING LIKELY PIEDMONT AND VALLEYS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
(INVERSION FOR RIDGES). COULD NEED A FROST OR FREEZE HEADLINE FOR
NEARLY ALL OF THE CWA (GRIDDED GUIDANCE GENERALLY HAS A WARM BIAS
FOR INTERIOR SOUTHERN MARYLAND ON CLEAR/CALM NIGHTS). LOW TO MID 40S
FOR URBAN/NEAR SHORE.

RETURN FLOW MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE RETURNS WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING
TROUGH. UPR TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ECMWF HAS 500MB CUT-OFF LOW OVER WESTERN PA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH VORT
MAX DROPPING DOWN WEST SIDE OF TROUGH. VORT MAX WILL ROUND THE
BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS CWA LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY EVENING. BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE PATTERN WILL SET UP OVER CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. CWA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH
WITH SHORTWAVE CROSSING AREA FRIDAY.

ALTHOUGH ANTICIPATED PATH OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL KEEP THE STRONGEST
OF ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION IN PA...OUR CWA LOOKS TO GET WET ALSO.
GREATEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NW WINDS LATE
TONIGHT...OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15KT POSSIBLE BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE
FREQUENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. GUSTS BECOME MORE FREQUENT
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PREVAILING 20KT GUSTS IN
TAFS...BUT SOME GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE. GUSTS EASE THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE HIGH CENTER CROSSES INTO THE AREA.

VFR CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING. LOW
LINGERS INTO LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NWLY FLOW WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT EXPECTED.
WINDS DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER CROSSES THE BAY
LATE IN THE NIGHT.

RETURN FLOW MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTS OVER THE REGION THEN INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     MDZ501-502.
VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     VAZ025>027-029-503-504.
WV...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     WVZ050-055-501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ531>534-
     537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     535-536-538-542.

&&

$$
UPDATES TO SHORT TERM...AVIATION AND MARINE...KCS







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190528 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
128 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LOWERED POPS OVERNIGHT AS LOWERING INVERSION LEVELS ARE BRINGING AN
END TO SHOWER ACTIVITY. TEMPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO LATEST
GUIDANCE.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MIXING HEIGHTS BELOW 3 OR 4KFT
INDICATING TOO SHALLOW OF A DEPTH FOR PRECIPITATION. WARMER AIR
WILL SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A DECREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER...ACROSS MOST OF THE EAST...THE NORTHWEST FLOW
AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL HOLD ON MEANING PLENTY OF CLOUD AND CHILLY
TEMPS. LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THE EASTERN HALF SHOULD BEGIN TO
ENJOY THE DECREASE IN LOW CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE RUSHES EASTWARD IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WAA WILL
CONTINUE WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO +4 TO +7. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
WILL SPREAD MID CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY ALL NIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE
IS LACKING AND THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS UNIMPRESSIVE.

COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY. AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY...DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL STREAM
NORTHWARD. WITH THE BEST ASCENSION WELL TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR THE
BOUNDARY...HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE MONDAY MORNING DRY. POPS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE COLD FRONT.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT
CROSSES AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH.

BY TUESDAY MORNING...FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE WILL BE
HEADING TOWARD EASTERN PA AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CUTS OFF OVER
LAKE ERIE. THE BROAD 50H LOW WILL ROTATE SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWER ACTIVITY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPS ON TUESDAY
BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SYSTEM FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY. A PERIOD OF DRY AND
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOWERING INVERSION WL SUPPRESS RESIDUAL SHWRS AS THE NGT PROGRESSES.
MEANWHILE...COLD NW BNDRY LYR FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES WL CONT TO
FUEL STRATOCU DVLPMNT THROUGH THE MRNG ALTHOUGH DRY ADVCTN MAY SPPRT
A RISING CIG BASE.  MVFR WL THUS GIVE WAY TO VFR BY THIS AFTN WITH
STRATOCU GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS BNDRY LYR FLOW BACKS TO THE W BY
LATE DAY.

.AVIATION /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WL PERSIST INTO MID WEEK AS UPR TROFG
CONTS TO PLAGUE THE UPR OH REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190528 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
128 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LOWERED POPS OVERNIGHT AS LOWERING INVERSION LEVELS ARE BRINGING AN
END TO SHOWER ACTIVITY. TEMPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO LATEST
GUIDANCE.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MIXING HEIGHTS BELOW 3 OR 4KFT
INDICATING TOO SHALLOW OF A DEPTH FOR PRECIPITATION. WARMER AIR
WILL SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A DECREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER...ACROSS MOST OF THE EAST...THE NORTHWEST FLOW
AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL HOLD ON MEANING PLENTY OF CLOUD AND CHILLY
TEMPS. LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THE EASTERN HALF SHOULD BEGIN TO
ENJOY THE DECREASE IN LOW CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE RUSHES EASTWARD IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WAA WILL
CONTINUE WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO +4 TO +7. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
WILL SPREAD MID CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY ALL NIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE
IS LACKING AND THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS UNIMPRESSIVE.

COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY. AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY...DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL STREAM
NORTHWARD. WITH THE BEST ASCENSION WELL TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR THE
BOUNDARY...HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE MONDAY MORNING DRY. POPS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE COLD FRONT.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT
CROSSES AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH.

BY TUESDAY MORNING...FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE WILL BE
HEADING TOWARD EASTERN PA AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CUTS OFF OVER
LAKE ERIE. THE BROAD 50H LOW WILL ROTATE SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWER ACTIVITY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPS ON TUESDAY
BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SYSTEM FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY. A PERIOD OF DRY AND
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOWERING INVERSION WL SUPPRESS RESIDUAL SHWRS AS THE NGT PROGRESSES.
MEANWHILE...COLD NW BNDRY LYR FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES WL CONT TO
FUEL STRATOCU DVLPMNT THROUGH THE MRNG ALTHOUGH DRY ADVCTN MAY SPPRT
A RISING CIG BASE.  MVFR WL THUS GIVE WAY TO VFR BY THIS AFTN WITH
STRATOCU GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS BNDRY LYR FLOW BACKS TO THE W BY
LATE DAY.

.AVIATION /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WL PERSIST INTO MID WEEK AS UPR TROFG
CONTS TO PLAGUE THE UPR OH REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 190502
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
102 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MOVE OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. BY TUESDAY A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE
CAROLINA COASTLINE. THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL INTERACT
WITH EACH OTHER AND MERGE JUST OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
DEPARTING THE REGION BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES PREDICTED TO PASS OVERNIGHT ARE INDICATING
AT LEAST A CHANCE OF PCPN REACHING THE GROUND IN THE NWRN PART OF
OUR CWA. SO WE EXTENDED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS LONGER. WE SUPPOSE
HIGHEST TERRAIN NORTHWEST MIGHT SEE A WET SNOWFLAKE TOWARD DAWN.
NO OTHER BIG CHANGES TO THE ESTF, MAINLY SOME SKY COVER
ADJUSTMENTS IN THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS SOUTH.

WE GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A STEADY BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED, SO EVEN
WITH THE COOLER DEWPOINTS AND AIRMASS IN PLACE, TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID- 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH TOMORROW LATE MORNING
AND WE SEE ANOTHER BOUT OF STRONGER NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS WITH MUCH
BETTER COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH
NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, SHOULD BE DRY AS IT PUSHES THROUGH
BUT THE AIRMASS WILL BE NEARLY 10-15 DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY`S.
HIGHS WILL END UP BEING IN THE LOW TO MID-50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, GOOD SET-UP FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. DEWPOINTS BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS IN THIS PERIOD ARE
MODELED IN THE MID TO UPPER 20`S. CURRENT THINKING IS THE GFS AND
THE RESPECTIVE MAV GUIDANCE ARE TO AGGRESSIVE WITH COOLER LOW
TEMPERATURES. EVEN WITH THAT THE MET GUIDANCE HAS LOWS RIGHT
AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY PRESENT FOR A FREEZE EVENT ACROSS CARBON,
MONROE AND SUSSEX COUNTIES SO A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: STILL LOOKS LIKE A NICE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFFSHORE, LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST. CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM TO
IMPACT THE REGION KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP. FAIRLY LIMITED
TEMPERATURE SPREAD AMONG THE VARIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECASTING TOOLS
WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 FOR MOST OF THE AREA, COOLER NW.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND BE SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD. THE END RESULT WILL BE GRAY GLOOMY COOLER DAYS FEATURING
RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. THE
FORMATION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL START WITH TWO PIECES, A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND COLD FRONT DIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND A LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE CAROLINAS. THE UPPER
LOW AND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO BRING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY TO THE REGION WITH A MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE
CAROLINA LOW WELL OFFSHORE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT WE BEGIN TO SEE MORE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE FEATURES, PHASING. THE MAIN LOW FORMS OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAJORITY
OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE BROUGHT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TO COMPARE
OUR REGION WOULD BE FAVORED FOR JUST SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS.

THE LAST TWO ECMWF RUNS SHOW AN INTERESTING INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE
WHICH ENHANCES SOME OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. ON THE OTHER HAND THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND CMC KEPT A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA DRY
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THIS PERIOD. IN TERMS OF THE ENSEMBLES SEVERAL WETTER
MEMBERS WERE PRESENT IN THE 06Z GEFS WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF SEEMED TO
BE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTHEAST COMPARED TO IT`S ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE
NAO IS LIKELY TO BE NEAR NEUTRAL, WHICH DOESN`T INSPIRE CONFIDENCE
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE THAN CURRENTLY
MODELED. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING SOMEWHAT THAT THIS PERIOD WILL
BE DOMINATED BY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS STARTING TUESDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY WITH AREAS FURTHER NORTHEAST CLOSER TO
THE LOW STANDING THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE A MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP AT
NIGHT CLOSE TO 50 FOR MOST OF US WHILE HIGHS STRUGGLE INTO THE LOW
60`S, COOLER NW. NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE MODELS AND THERE
ENSEMBLES/ STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES. IN TERMS OF TIDES
ONCE A BETTER HANDLE OF THE LOW PRESSURE POSITION AND WIND
DIRECTION ARE ESTABLISHED CONFIDENCE WILL INCREASE ON WHAT IF ANY
TIDAL ISSUES WILL BE PRESENT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN AT THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD.
WENT ON THE WARMER END OF THE MODEL SUITE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY CLOSER TO MEX GUIDANCE GIVEN REBOUNDING 925/850 MB TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

06Z TAFS VFR.

REST OF THE NIGHT...MAINLY A MID DECK VFR CIG FCST WITH WEST
WINDS CLOSE TO 10 KTS. HIGHER TERRAIN AIRPORTS WILL SEE SOME MVFR
CIGS.

SUNDAY DAY...VFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT AIRPORTS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF
PHILADELPHIA AND INTERSTATE 195 IN NJ. EVEN SOME MVFR CIGS EARLY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ELSEWHERE MAINLY JUST A SCATTERED DECK OF CU
CLOUDS AFTER 12Z OR 13Z. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTINESS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. STAT GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING THE PEAK WINDS SHOULD OCCUR BY ABOUT 18Z. CLEARING OR
CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS TOWARD SUNSET.

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH LIGHTER NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST TERMINALS. ANY CLOUDS WILL BE AT CIRRUS
LEVEL AND MORE LIKELY LATER AT NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.

TUESDAY...SOME RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT - SUNDAY...SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS ALL OUR WATERS
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS, AROUND 25 TO 30
KNOTS, WILL CONTINUE...AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY WE COULD SEE CLOSE TO
GALE FORCE GUSTS WITH THE POTENTIAL WIND FUNNELING. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AROUND 4 TO 7 FEET ON THE OCEANFRONT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: EARLY IN THE EVENING SEAS ARE STILL LIKELY TO BE
AROUND FIVE FEET WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THESE VALUES WILL BE DECREASING BELOW SCA THRESHOLD EARLY AND WILL
ALLOW THE SCA TO EXPIRE EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING: SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BUT INCREASING WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY: OVERALL THINKING IS THAT
WAVEWATCH IS UNDERDONE. SEAS WILL LIKELY OR OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH
MOST OF THIS PERIOD. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...GIGI/HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/GIGI
MARINE...GAINES/HEAVENER






000
FXUS61 KPHI 190502
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
102 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MOVE OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. BY TUESDAY A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE
CAROLINA COASTLINE. THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL INTERACT
WITH EACH OTHER AND MERGE JUST OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
DEPARTING THE REGION BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES PREDICTED TO PASS OVERNIGHT ARE INDICATING
AT LEAST A CHANCE OF PCPN REACHING THE GROUND IN THE NWRN PART OF
OUR CWA. SO WE EXTENDED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS LONGER. WE SUPPOSE
HIGHEST TERRAIN NORTHWEST MIGHT SEE A WET SNOWFLAKE TOWARD DAWN.
NO OTHER BIG CHANGES TO THE ESTF, MAINLY SOME SKY COVER
ADJUSTMENTS IN THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS SOUTH.

WE GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A STEADY BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED, SO EVEN
WITH THE COOLER DEWPOINTS AND AIRMASS IN PLACE, TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID- 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH TOMORROW LATE MORNING
AND WE SEE ANOTHER BOUT OF STRONGER NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS WITH MUCH
BETTER COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH
NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, SHOULD BE DRY AS IT PUSHES THROUGH
BUT THE AIRMASS WILL BE NEARLY 10-15 DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY`S.
HIGHS WILL END UP BEING IN THE LOW TO MID-50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, GOOD SET-UP FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. DEWPOINTS BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS IN THIS PERIOD ARE
MODELED IN THE MID TO UPPER 20`S. CURRENT THINKING IS THE GFS AND
THE RESPECTIVE MAV GUIDANCE ARE TO AGGRESSIVE WITH COOLER LOW
TEMPERATURES. EVEN WITH THAT THE MET GUIDANCE HAS LOWS RIGHT
AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY PRESENT FOR A FREEZE EVENT ACROSS CARBON,
MONROE AND SUSSEX COUNTIES SO A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: STILL LOOKS LIKE A NICE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFFSHORE, LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST. CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM TO
IMPACT THE REGION KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP. FAIRLY LIMITED
TEMPERATURE SPREAD AMONG THE VARIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECASTING TOOLS
WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 FOR MOST OF THE AREA, COOLER NW.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND BE SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD. THE END RESULT WILL BE GRAY GLOOMY COOLER DAYS FEATURING
RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. THE
FORMATION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL START WITH TWO PIECES, A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND COLD FRONT DIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND A LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE CAROLINAS. THE UPPER
LOW AND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO BRING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY TO THE REGION WITH A MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE
CAROLINA LOW WELL OFFSHORE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT WE BEGIN TO SEE MORE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE FEATURES, PHASING. THE MAIN LOW FORMS OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAJORITY
OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE BROUGHT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TO COMPARE
OUR REGION WOULD BE FAVORED FOR JUST SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS.

THE LAST TWO ECMWF RUNS SHOW AN INTERESTING INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE
WHICH ENHANCES SOME OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. ON THE OTHER HAND THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND CMC KEPT A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA DRY
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THIS PERIOD. IN TERMS OF THE ENSEMBLES SEVERAL WETTER
MEMBERS WERE PRESENT IN THE 06Z GEFS WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF SEEMED TO
BE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTHEAST COMPARED TO IT`S ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE
NAO IS LIKELY TO BE NEAR NEUTRAL, WHICH DOESN`T INSPIRE CONFIDENCE
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE THAN CURRENTLY
MODELED. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING SOMEWHAT THAT THIS PERIOD WILL
BE DOMINATED BY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS STARTING TUESDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY WITH AREAS FURTHER NORTHEAST CLOSER TO
THE LOW STANDING THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE A MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP AT
NIGHT CLOSE TO 50 FOR MOST OF US WHILE HIGHS STRUGGLE INTO THE LOW
60`S, COOLER NW. NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE MODELS AND THERE
ENSEMBLES/ STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES. IN TERMS OF TIDES
ONCE A BETTER HANDLE OF THE LOW PRESSURE POSITION AND WIND
DIRECTION ARE ESTABLISHED CONFIDENCE WILL INCREASE ON WHAT IF ANY
TIDAL ISSUES WILL BE PRESENT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN AT THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD.
WENT ON THE WARMER END OF THE MODEL SUITE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY CLOSER TO MEX GUIDANCE GIVEN REBOUNDING 925/850 MB TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

06Z TAFS VFR.

REST OF THE NIGHT...MAINLY A MID DECK VFR CIG FCST WITH WEST
WINDS CLOSE TO 10 KTS. HIGHER TERRAIN AIRPORTS WILL SEE SOME MVFR
CIGS.

SUNDAY DAY...VFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT AIRPORTS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF
PHILADELPHIA AND INTERSTATE 195 IN NJ. EVEN SOME MVFR CIGS EARLY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ELSEWHERE MAINLY JUST A SCATTERED DECK OF CU
CLOUDS AFTER 12Z OR 13Z. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTINESS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. STAT GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING THE PEAK WINDS SHOULD OCCUR BY ABOUT 18Z. CLEARING OR
CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS TOWARD SUNSET.

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH LIGHTER NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST TERMINALS. ANY CLOUDS WILL BE AT CIRRUS
LEVEL AND MORE LIKELY LATER AT NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.

TUESDAY...SOME RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT - SUNDAY...SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS ALL OUR WATERS
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS, AROUND 25 TO 30
KNOTS, WILL CONTINUE...AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY WE COULD SEE CLOSE TO
GALE FORCE GUSTS WITH THE POTENTIAL WIND FUNNELING. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AROUND 4 TO 7 FEET ON THE OCEANFRONT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: EARLY IN THE EVENING SEAS ARE STILL LIKELY TO BE
AROUND FIVE FEET WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THESE VALUES WILL BE DECREASING BELOW SCA THRESHOLD EARLY AND WILL
ALLOW THE SCA TO EXPIRE EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING: SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BUT INCREASING WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY: OVERALL THINKING IS THAT
WAVEWATCH IS UNDERDONE. SEAS WILL LIKELY OR OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH
MOST OF THIS PERIOD. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...GIGI/HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/GIGI
MARINE...GAINES/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPHI 190427
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1227 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MOVE OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. BY TUESDAY A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE
CAROLINA COASTLINE. THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL INTERACT
WITH EACH OTHER AND MERGE JUST OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
DEPARTING THE REGION BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES PREDICTED TO PASS OVERNIGHT ARE INDICATING
AT LEAST A CHANCE OF PCPN REACHING THE GROUND IN THE NWRN PART OF
OUR CWA. SO WE EXTENDED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS LONGER. WE SUPPOSE
HIGHEST TERRAIN NORTHWEST MIGHT SEE A WET SNOWFLAKE TOWARD DAWN.
NO OTHER BIG CHANGES TO THE ESTF, MAINLY SOME SKY COVER
ADJUSTMENTS IN THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS SOUTH.

WE GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A STEADY BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED, SO EVEN
WITH THE COOLER DEWPOINTS AND AIRMASS IN PLACE, TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID- 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH TOMORROW LATE MORNING
AND WE SEE ANOTHER BOUT OF STRONGER NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS WITH MUCH
BETTER COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH
NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, SHOULD BE DRY AS IT PUSHES THROUGH
BUT THE AIRMASS WILL BE NEARLY 10-15 DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY`S.
HIGHS WILL END UP BEING IN THE LOW TO MID-50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, GOOD SET-UP FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. DEWPOINTS BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS IN THIS PERIOD ARE
MODELED IN THE MID TO UPPER 20`S. CURRENT THINKING IS THE GFS AND
THE RESPECTIVE MAV GUIDANCE ARE TO AGGRESSIVE WITH COOLER LOW
TEMPERATURES. EVEN WITH THAT THE MET GUIDANCE HAS LOWS RIGHT
AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY PRESENT FOR A FREEZE EVENT ACROSS CARBON,
MONROE AND SUSSEX COUNTIES SO A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: STILL LOOKS LIKE A NICE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFFSHORE, LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST. CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM TO
IMPACT THE REGION KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP. FAIRLY LIMITED
TEMPERATURE SPREAD AMONG THE VARIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECASTING TOOLS
WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 FOR MOST OF THE AREA, COOLER NW.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND BE SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD. THE END RESULT WILL BE GRAY GLOOMY COOLER DAYS FEATURING
RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. THE
FORMATION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL START WITH TWO PIECES, A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND COLD FRONT DIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND A LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE CAROLINAS. THE UPPER
LOW AND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO BRING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY TO THE REGION WITH A MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE
CAROLINA LOW WELL OFFSHORE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT WE BEGIN TO SEE MORE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE FEATURES, PHASING. THE MAIN LOW FORMS OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAJORITY
OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE BROUGHT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TO COMPARE
OUR REGION WOULD BE FAVORED FOR JUST SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS.

THE LAST TWO ECMWF RUNS SHOW AN INTERESTING INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE
WHICH ENHANCES SOME OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. ON THE OTHER HAND THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND CMC KEPT A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA DRY
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THIS PERIOD. IN TERMS OF THE ENSEMBLES SEVERAL WETTER
MEMBERS WERE PRESENT IN THE 06Z GEFS WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF SEEMED TO
BE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTHEAST COMPARED TO IT`S ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE
NAO IS LIKELY TO BE NEAR NEUTRAL, WHICH DOESN`T INSPIRE CONFIDENCE
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE THAN CURRENTLY
MODELED. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING SOMEWHAT THAT THIS PERIOD WILL
BE DOMINATED BY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS STARTING TUESDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY WITH AREAS FURTHER NORTHEAST CLOSER TO
THE LOW STANDING THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE A MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP AT
NIGHT CLOSE TO 50 FOR MOST OF US WHILE HIGHS STRUGGLE INTO THE LOW
60`S, COOLER NW. NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE MODELS AND THERE
ENSEMBLES/ STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES. IN TERMS OF TIDES
ONCE A BETTER HANDLE OF THE LOW PRESSURE POSITION AND WIND
DIRECTION ARE ESTABLISHED CONFIDENCE WILL INCREASE ON WHAT IF ANY
TIDAL ISSUES WILL BE PRESENT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN AT THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD.
WENT ON THE WARMER END OF THE MODEL SUITE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY CLOSER TO MEX GUIDANCE GIVEN REBOUNDING 925/850 MB TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS SUSTAINED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
STRATOCU DECK BEGINS TO THIN AND SCATTER OUT LATE TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR. MORE GUSTY NW WINDS, AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS, WILL
COMMENCE BY LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: VFR WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS SHIFTING
TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY. SOME HIGHER GUSTS EARLY IN THE EVENING.

TUESDAY...SOME RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT - SUNDAY...SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS ALL OUR WATERS
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS, AROUND 25 TO 30
KNOTS, WILL CONTINUE...AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY WE COULD SEE CLOSE TO
GALE FORCE GUSTS WITH THE POTENTIAL WIND FUNNELING. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AROUND 4 TO 7 FEET ON THE OCEANFRONT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: EARLY IN THE EVENING SEAS ARE STILL LIKELY TO BE
AROUND FIVE FEET WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THESE VALUES WILL BE DECREASING BELOW SCA THRESHOLD EARLY AND WILL
ALLOW THE SCA TO EXPIRE EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING: SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BUT INCREASING WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY: OVERALL THINKING IS THAT
WAVEWATCH IS UNDERDONE. SEAS WILL LIKELY OR OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH
MOST OF THIS PERIOD. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...GIGI/HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GAINES/HEAVENER






000
FXUS61 KPHI 190427
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1227 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MOVE OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. BY TUESDAY A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE
CAROLINA COASTLINE. THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL INTERACT
WITH EACH OTHER AND MERGE JUST OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
DEPARTING THE REGION BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES PREDICTED TO PASS OVERNIGHT ARE INDICATING
AT LEAST A CHANCE OF PCPN REACHING THE GROUND IN THE NWRN PART OF
OUR CWA. SO WE EXTENDED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS LONGER. WE SUPPOSE
HIGHEST TERRAIN NORTHWEST MIGHT SEE A WET SNOWFLAKE TOWARD DAWN.
NO OTHER BIG CHANGES TO THE ESTF, MAINLY SOME SKY COVER
ADJUSTMENTS IN THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS SOUTH.

WE GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A STEADY BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED, SO EVEN
WITH THE COOLER DEWPOINTS AND AIRMASS IN PLACE, TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID- 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH TOMORROW LATE MORNING
AND WE SEE ANOTHER BOUT OF STRONGER NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS WITH MUCH
BETTER COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH
NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, SHOULD BE DRY AS IT PUSHES THROUGH
BUT THE AIRMASS WILL BE NEARLY 10-15 DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY`S.
HIGHS WILL END UP BEING IN THE LOW TO MID-50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, GOOD SET-UP FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. DEWPOINTS BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS IN THIS PERIOD ARE
MODELED IN THE MID TO UPPER 20`S. CURRENT THINKING IS THE GFS AND
THE RESPECTIVE MAV GUIDANCE ARE TO AGGRESSIVE WITH COOLER LOW
TEMPERATURES. EVEN WITH THAT THE MET GUIDANCE HAS LOWS RIGHT
AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY PRESENT FOR A FREEZE EVENT ACROSS CARBON,
MONROE AND SUSSEX COUNTIES SO A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: STILL LOOKS LIKE A NICE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFFSHORE, LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST. CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM TO
IMPACT THE REGION KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP. FAIRLY LIMITED
TEMPERATURE SPREAD AMONG THE VARIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECASTING TOOLS
WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 FOR MOST OF THE AREA, COOLER NW.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND BE SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD. THE END RESULT WILL BE GRAY GLOOMY COOLER DAYS FEATURING
RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. THE
FORMATION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL START WITH TWO PIECES, A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND COLD FRONT DIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND A LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE CAROLINAS. THE UPPER
LOW AND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO BRING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY TO THE REGION WITH A MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE
CAROLINA LOW WELL OFFSHORE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT WE BEGIN TO SEE MORE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE FEATURES, PHASING. THE MAIN LOW FORMS OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAJORITY
OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE BROUGHT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TO COMPARE
OUR REGION WOULD BE FAVORED FOR JUST SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS.

THE LAST TWO ECMWF RUNS SHOW AN INTERESTING INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE
WHICH ENHANCES SOME OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. ON THE OTHER HAND THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND CMC KEPT A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA DRY
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THIS PERIOD. IN TERMS OF THE ENSEMBLES SEVERAL WETTER
MEMBERS WERE PRESENT IN THE 06Z GEFS WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF SEEMED TO
BE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTHEAST COMPARED TO IT`S ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE
NAO IS LIKELY TO BE NEAR NEUTRAL, WHICH DOESN`T INSPIRE CONFIDENCE
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE THAN CURRENTLY
MODELED. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING SOMEWHAT THAT THIS PERIOD WILL
BE DOMINATED BY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS STARTING TUESDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY WITH AREAS FURTHER NORTHEAST CLOSER TO
THE LOW STANDING THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE A MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP AT
NIGHT CLOSE TO 50 FOR MOST OF US WHILE HIGHS STRUGGLE INTO THE LOW
60`S, COOLER NW. NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE MODELS AND THERE
ENSEMBLES/ STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES. IN TERMS OF TIDES
ONCE A BETTER HANDLE OF THE LOW PRESSURE POSITION AND WIND
DIRECTION ARE ESTABLISHED CONFIDENCE WILL INCREASE ON WHAT IF ANY
TIDAL ISSUES WILL BE PRESENT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN AT THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD.
WENT ON THE WARMER END OF THE MODEL SUITE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY CLOSER TO MEX GUIDANCE GIVEN REBOUNDING 925/850 MB TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS SUSTAINED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
STRATOCU DECK BEGINS TO THIN AND SCATTER OUT LATE TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR. MORE GUSTY NW WINDS, AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS, WILL
COMMENCE BY LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: VFR WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS SHIFTING
TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY. SOME HIGHER GUSTS EARLY IN THE EVENING.

TUESDAY...SOME RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT - SUNDAY...SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS ALL OUR WATERS
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS, AROUND 25 TO 30
KNOTS, WILL CONTINUE...AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY WE COULD SEE CLOSE TO
GALE FORCE GUSTS WITH THE POTENTIAL WIND FUNNELING. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AROUND 4 TO 7 FEET ON THE OCEANFRONT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: EARLY IN THE EVENING SEAS ARE STILL LIKELY TO BE
AROUND FIVE FEET WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THESE VALUES WILL BE DECREASING BELOW SCA THRESHOLD EARLY AND WILL
ALLOW THE SCA TO EXPIRE EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING: SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BUT INCREASING WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY: OVERALL THINKING IS THAT
WAVEWATCH IS UNDERDONE. SEAS WILL LIKELY OR OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH
MOST OF THIS PERIOD. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...GIGI/HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GAINES/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190149
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
949 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EVENING UPDATE TO TREND POPS A BIT LOWER ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WITH SHORTWAVE NOW WELL SOUTH BUT A FEW
STREAMERS ARE DEVELOPING OFF THE LAKES IN COLD ADVECTION AND
NORTHWEST FLOW. NO OTHER CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO BASE OF UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN
OHIO WILL SKIRT THE EASTERN OHIO COUNTIES WITH BULK OF SHOWERS
PASSING WELL SOUTH INTO WEST VIRGINIA. ELSEWHERE COLD NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAP THE WARM LAKES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES AND I-80 CORRIDOR. STILL
A CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW FLAKES TO MIX IN ACROSS THE HIGHER
SOUTHEAST RIDGES TOWARD DAYBREAK...OTHERWISE AS SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS EAST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN WESTERLY WITH DEEP DRYING
WORKING INTO REGION. NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST LOWS WITH
CLOUDS HELPING TO KEEP READINGS FROM FALLING OFF DRAMATICALLY.

18Z MODEL RUNS SHOW A BIT QUICKER EXIT OF UPPER TROUGH WITH
SURFACE HIGH MOVING TO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA BY AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO BEGIN TO BREAK OUT FOR PARTIAL SUNSHINE IN
THE AFTERNOON MOST LOCATIONS. CONTINUED QUITE COOL WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 40S FAR NORTH TO LOWER 50S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISING UP TOWARD +4C SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
POOR DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FALL ON MONDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT SERIES OF WAVES WHICH WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY.

THE FIRST WAVE LOOKS RATHER HIGHLY SHEARED AND MOISTURE STARVED ON
MONDAY...WITH A LAYER OF DRY AIR BELOW IT LIKELY TO ERODE WHAT
LITTLE BIT OF PRECIPITATION MAY BE GENERATED FROM THE WEAK
ELEVATED SATURATION AND LIFT IT MANAGES TO MUSTER. A DEEPER WAVE
WILL MOVE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FOR MONDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING ITS TILT AS IT DOES SO. THIS WILL AGAIN WORK A
BIT WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR TOWARD THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE
YIELDING A WINDOW OF REDUCED CHANCES OF RAINFALL IMMEDIATELY
PRECEDING IT. HOWEVER...BY MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...RAIN SHOULD AGAIN OVERSPREAD THE AREA SLOWLY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

YET ANOTHER DEEPER WAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH GOING
INTO TUESDAY...WHICH WILL AGAIN INCREASE THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OWING TO PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR ALOFT. IT IS THIS
WAVE THAT SEEMS TO BE THE CULPRIT IN REALLY HALTING THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN. AS IT DIVES INTO THE BASE OF
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ON TUESDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO FAVOR A
CLOSING OFF OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...IN ADVANCE OF THE
EVENTUAL CUTTING OFF OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR AREA
FROM THE POLAR JET. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO FLIP FLOP ON HOW FAR EAST THE CLOSED/CUT OFF
LOW WILL END UP AFTER MID-WEEK. CURRENT SOLUTIONS ARE AGAIN TOO
CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA TO KEEP THE MENTION OF RAIN CHANCES OUT
OF THE FORECAST UNTIL AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...EVEN
STILL...CLOUDS ARE STILL LIKELY TO REMAIN A PLAYER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE COMING WEEK. FRIES

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RAIN SHOWERS ARE ON THE WANE...BUT THINK THAT MANY TERMINALS COULD
STILL SEE A PASSING SHOWER THROUGH THE EVENING. GUSTS HAVE COME TO
AN END AT MOST TERMINALS AS WELL...WHICH WILL ALSO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ALL SITES
WILL RISE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. GUSTS ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE CONTAINED TO DUJ AND LBE.

.AVIATION /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS UPR TROFG CONTS IN THE UPR OH REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190149
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
949 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EVENING UPDATE TO TREND POPS A BIT LOWER ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WITH SHORTWAVE NOW WELL SOUTH BUT A FEW
STREAMERS ARE DEVELOPING OFF THE LAKES IN COLD ADVECTION AND
NORTHWEST FLOW. NO OTHER CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO BASE OF UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN
OHIO WILL SKIRT THE EASTERN OHIO COUNTIES WITH BULK OF SHOWERS
PASSING WELL SOUTH INTO WEST VIRGINIA. ELSEWHERE COLD NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAP THE WARM LAKES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES AND I-80 CORRIDOR. STILL
A CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW FLAKES TO MIX IN ACROSS THE HIGHER
SOUTHEAST RIDGES TOWARD DAYBREAK...OTHERWISE AS SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS EAST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN WESTERLY WITH DEEP DRYING
WORKING INTO REGION. NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST LOWS WITH
CLOUDS HELPING TO KEEP READINGS FROM FALLING OFF DRAMATICALLY.

18Z MODEL RUNS SHOW A BIT QUICKER EXIT OF UPPER TROUGH WITH
SURFACE HIGH MOVING TO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA BY AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO BEGIN TO BREAK OUT FOR PARTIAL SUNSHINE IN
THE AFTERNOON MOST LOCATIONS. CONTINUED QUITE COOL WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 40S FAR NORTH TO LOWER 50S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISING UP TOWARD +4C SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
POOR DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FALL ON MONDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT SERIES OF WAVES WHICH WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY.

THE FIRST WAVE LOOKS RATHER HIGHLY SHEARED AND MOISTURE STARVED ON
MONDAY...WITH A LAYER OF DRY AIR BELOW IT LIKELY TO ERODE WHAT
LITTLE BIT OF PRECIPITATION MAY BE GENERATED FROM THE WEAK
ELEVATED SATURATION AND LIFT IT MANAGES TO MUSTER. A DEEPER WAVE
WILL MOVE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FOR MONDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING ITS TILT AS IT DOES SO. THIS WILL AGAIN WORK A
BIT WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR TOWARD THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE
YIELDING A WINDOW OF REDUCED CHANCES OF RAINFALL IMMEDIATELY
PRECEDING IT. HOWEVER...BY MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...RAIN SHOULD AGAIN OVERSPREAD THE AREA SLOWLY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

YET ANOTHER DEEPER WAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH GOING
INTO TUESDAY...WHICH WILL AGAIN INCREASE THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OWING TO PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR ALOFT. IT IS THIS
WAVE THAT SEEMS TO BE THE CULPRIT IN REALLY HALTING THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN. AS IT DIVES INTO THE BASE OF
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ON TUESDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO FAVOR A
CLOSING OFF OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...IN ADVANCE OF THE
EVENTUAL CUTTING OFF OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR AREA
FROM THE POLAR JET. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO FLIP FLOP ON HOW FAR EAST THE CLOSED/CUT OFF
LOW WILL END UP AFTER MID-WEEK. CURRENT SOLUTIONS ARE AGAIN TOO
CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA TO KEEP THE MENTION OF RAIN CHANCES OUT
OF THE FORECAST UNTIL AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...EVEN
STILL...CLOUDS ARE STILL LIKELY TO REMAIN A PLAYER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE COMING WEEK. FRIES

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RAIN SHOWERS ARE ON THE WANE...BUT THINK THAT MANY TERMINALS COULD
STILL SEE A PASSING SHOWER THROUGH THE EVENING. GUSTS HAVE COME TO
AN END AT MOST TERMINALS AS WELL...WHICH WILL ALSO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ALL SITES
WILL RISE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. GUSTS ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE CONTAINED TO DUJ AND LBE.

.AVIATION /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS UPR TROFG CONTS IN THE UPR OH REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190149
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
949 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EVENING UPDATE TO TREND POPS A BIT LOWER ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WITH SHORTWAVE NOW WELL SOUTH BUT A FEW
STREAMERS ARE DEVELOPING OFF THE LAKES IN COLD ADVECTION AND
NORTHWEST FLOW. NO OTHER CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO BASE OF UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN
OHIO WILL SKIRT THE EASTERN OHIO COUNTIES WITH BULK OF SHOWERS
PASSING WELL SOUTH INTO WEST VIRGINIA. ELSEWHERE COLD NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAP THE WARM LAKES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES AND I-80 CORRIDOR. STILL
A CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW FLAKES TO MIX IN ACROSS THE HIGHER
SOUTHEAST RIDGES TOWARD DAYBREAK...OTHERWISE AS SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS EAST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN WESTERLY WITH DEEP DRYING
WORKING INTO REGION. NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST LOWS WITH
CLOUDS HELPING TO KEEP READINGS FROM FALLING OFF DRAMATICALLY.

18Z MODEL RUNS SHOW A BIT QUICKER EXIT OF UPPER TROUGH WITH
SURFACE HIGH MOVING TO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA BY AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO BEGIN TO BREAK OUT FOR PARTIAL SUNSHINE IN
THE AFTERNOON MOST LOCATIONS. CONTINUED QUITE COOL WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 40S FAR NORTH TO LOWER 50S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISING UP TOWARD +4C SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
POOR DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FALL ON MONDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT SERIES OF WAVES WHICH WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY.

THE FIRST WAVE LOOKS RATHER HIGHLY SHEARED AND MOISTURE STARVED ON
MONDAY...WITH A LAYER OF DRY AIR BELOW IT LIKELY TO ERODE WHAT
LITTLE BIT OF PRECIPITATION MAY BE GENERATED FROM THE WEAK
ELEVATED SATURATION AND LIFT IT MANAGES TO MUSTER. A DEEPER WAVE
WILL MOVE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FOR MONDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING ITS TILT AS IT DOES SO. THIS WILL AGAIN WORK A
BIT WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR TOWARD THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE
YIELDING A WINDOW OF REDUCED CHANCES OF RAINFALL IMMEDIATELY
PRECEDING IT. HOWEVER...BY MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...RAIN SHOULD AGAIN OVERSPREAD THE AREA SLOWLY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

YET ANOTHER DEEPER WAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH GOING
INTO TUESDAY...WHICH WILL AGAIN INCREASE THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OWING TO PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR ALOFT. IT IS THIS
WAVE THAT SEEMS TO BE THE CULPRIT IN REALLY HALTING THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN. AS IT DIVES INTO THE BASE OF
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ON TUESDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO FAVOR A
CLOSING OFF OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...IN ADVANCE OF THE
EVENTUAL CUTTING OFF OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR AREA
FROM THE POLAR JET. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO FLIP FLOP ON HOW FAR EAST THE CLOSED/CUT OFF
LOW WILL END UP AFTER MID-WEEK. CURRENT SOLUTIONS ARE AGAIN TOO
CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA TO KEEP THE MENTION OF RAIN CHANCES OUT
OF THE FORECAST UNTIL AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...EVEN
STILL...CLOUDS ARE STILL LIKELY TO REMAIN A PLAYER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE COMING WEEK. FRIES

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RAIN SHOWERS ARE ON THE WANE...BUT THINK THAT MANY TERMINALS COULD
STILL SEE A PASSING SHOWER THROUGH THE EVENING. GUSTS HAVE COME TO
AN END AT MOST TERMINALS AS WELL...WHICH WILL ALSO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ALL SITES
WILL RISE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. GUSTS ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE CONTAINED TO DUJ AND LBE.

.AVIATION /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS UPR TROFG CONTS IN THE UPR OH REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190149
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
949 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EVENING UPDATE TO TREND POPS A BIT LOWER ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WITH SHORTWAVE NOW WELL SOUTH BUT A FEW
STREAMERS ARE DEVELOPING OFF THE LAKES IN COLD ADVECTION AND
NORTHWEST FLOW. NO OTHER CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO BASE OF UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN
OHIO WILL SKIRT THE EASTERN OHIO COUNTIES WITH BULK OF SHOWERS
PASSING WELL SOUTH INTO WEST VIRGINIA. ELSEWHERE COLD NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAP THE WARM LAKES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES AND I-80 CORRIDOR. STILL
A CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW FLAKES TO MIX IN ACROSS THE HIGHER
SOUTHEAST RIDGES TOWARD DAYBREAK...OTHERWISE AS SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS EAST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN WESTERLY WITH DEEP DRYING
WORKING INTO REGION. NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST LOWS WITH
CLOUDS HELPING TO KEEP READINGS FROM FALLING OFF DRAMATICALLY.

18Z MODEL RUNS SHOW A BIT QUICKER EXIT OF UPPER TROUGH WITH
SURFACE HIGH MOVING TO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA BY AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO BEGIN TO BREAK OUT FOR PARTIAL SUNSHINE IN
THE AFTERNOON MOST LOCATIONS. CONTINUED QUITE COOL WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 40S FAR NORTH TO LOWER 50S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISING UP TOWARD +4C SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
POOR DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FALL ON MONDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT SERIES OF WAVES WHICH WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY.

THE FIRST WAVE LOOKS RATHER HIGHLY SHEARED AND MOISTURE STARVED ON
MONDAY...WITH A LAYER OF DRY AIR BELOW IT LIKELY TO ERODE WHAT
LITTLE BIT OF PRECIPITATION MAY BE GENERATED FROM THE WEAK
ELEVATED SATURATION AND LIFT IT MANAGES TO MUSTER. A DEEPER WAVE
WILL MOVE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FOR MONDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING ITS TILT AS IT DOES SO. THIS WILL AGAIN WORK A
BIT WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR TOWARD THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE
YIELDING A WINDOW OF REDUCED CHANCES OF RAINFALL IMMEDIATELY
PRECEDING IT. HOWEVER...BY MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...RAIN SHOULD AGAIN OVERSPREAD THE AREA SLOWLY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

YET ANOTHER DEEPER WAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH GOING
INTO TUESDAY...WHICH WILL AGAIN INCREASE THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OWING TO PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR ALOFT. IT IS THIS
WAVE THAT SEEMS TO BE THE CULPRIT IN REALLY HALTING THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN. AS IT DIVES INTO THE BASE OF
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ON TUESDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO FAVOR A
CLOSING OFF OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...IN ADVANCE OF THE
EVENTUAL CUTTING OFF OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR AREA
FROM THE POLAR JET. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO FLIP FLOP ON HOW FAR EAST THE CLOSED/CUT OFF
LOW WILL END UP AFTER MID-WEEK. CURRENT SOLUTIONS ARE AGAIN TOO
CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA TO KEEP THE MENTION OF RAIN CHANCES OUT
OF THE FORECAST UNTIL AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...EVEN
STILL...CLOUDS ARE STILL LIKELY TO REMAIN A PLAYER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE COMING WEEK. FRIES

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RAIN SHOWERS ARE ON THE WANE...BUT THINK THAT MANY TERMINALS COULD
STILL SEE A PASSING SHOWER THROUGH THE EVENING. GUSTS HAVE COME TO
AN END AT MOST TERMINALS AS WELL...WHICH WILL ALSO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ALL SITES
WILL RISE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. GUSTS ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE CONTAINED TO DUJ AND LBE.

.AVIATION /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS UPR TROFG CONTS IN THE UPR OH REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPHI 190134
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
934 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MOVE OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. BY TUESDAY A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE
CAROLINA COASTLINE. THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL INTERACT
WITH EACH OTHER AND MERGE JUST OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
DEPARTING THE REGION BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
MOST OF THE ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT WERE TO OUR NORTHWEST
HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED AS DAYTIME HEATING HAS BEEN LOST, EXCEPT
FOR A FEW SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
THE AREA. THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
THIS EVENING, BUT NOT MUCH MORE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WE
GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

THE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP OFF THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, BUT A
STEADY BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED, SO EVEN WITH THE COOLER
DEWPOINTS AND AIRMASS IN PLACE, TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE ABLE TO
DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID-40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH TOMORROW LATE MORNING
AND WE SEE ANOTHER BOUT OF STRONGER NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS WITH MUCH
BETTER COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH
NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, SHOULD BE DRY AS IT PUSHES THROUGH
BUT THE AIRMASS WILL BE NEARLY 10-15 DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY`S.
HIGHS WILL END UP BEING IN THE LOW TO MID-50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, GOOD SET-UP FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. DEWPOINTS BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS IN THIS PERIOD ARE
MODELED IN THE MID TO UPPER 20`S. CURRENT THINKING IS THE GFS AND
THE RESPECTIVE MAV GUIDANCE ARE TO AGGRESSIVE WITH COOLER LOW
TEMPERATURES. EVEN WITH THAT THE MET GUIDANCE HAS LOWS RIGHT
AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY PRESENT FOR A FREEZE EVENT ACROSS CARBON,
MONROE AND SUSSEX COUNTIES SO A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: STILL LOOKS LIKE A NICE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFFSHORE, LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST. CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM TO
IMPACT THE REGION KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP. FAIRLY LIMITED
TEMPERATURE SPREAD AMONG THE VARIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECASTING TOOLS
WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 FOR MOST OF THE AREA, COOLER NW.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND BE SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD. THE END RESULT WILL BE GRAY GLOOMY COOLER DAYS FEATURING
RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. THE
FORMATION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL START WITH TWO PIECES, A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND COLD FRONT DIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND A LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE CAROLINAS. THE UPPER
LOW AND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO BRING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY TO THE REGION WITH A MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE
CAROLINA LOW WELL OFFSHORE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT WE BEGIN TO SEE MORE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE FEATURES, PHASING. THE MAIN LOW FORMS OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAJORITY
OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE BROUGHT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TO COMPARE
OUR REGION WOULD BE FAVORED FOR JUST SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS.

THE LAST TWO ECMWF RUNS SHOW AN INTERESTING INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE
WHICH ENHANCES SOME OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. ON THE OTHER HAND THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND CMC KEPT A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA DRY
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THIS PERIOD. IN TERMS OF THE ENSEMBLES SEVERAL WETTER
MEMBERS WERE PRESENT IN THE 06Z GEFS WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF SEEMED TO
BE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTHEAST COMPARED TO IT`S ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE
NAO IS LIKELY TO BE NEAR NEUTRAL, WHICH DOESN`T INSPIRE CONFIDENCE
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE THAN CURRENTLY
MODELED. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING SOMEWHAT THAT THIS PERIOD WILL
BE DOMINATED BY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS STARTING TUESDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY WITH AREAS FURTHER NORTHEAST CLOSER TO
THE LOW STANDING THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE A MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP AT
NIGHT CLOSE TO 50 FOR MOST OF US WHILE HIGHS STRUGGLE INTO THE LOW
60`S, COOLER NW. NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE MODELS AND THERE
ENSEMBLES/ STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES. IN TERMS OF TIDES
ONCE A BETTER HANDLE OF THE LOW PRESSURE POSITION AND WIND
DIRECTION ARE ESTABLISHED CONFIDENCE WILL INCREASE ON WHAT IF ANY
TIDAL ISSUES WILL BE PRESENT.


FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN AT THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD. WENT
ON THE WARMER END OF THE MODEL SUITE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY CLOSER TO MEX GUIDANCE GIVEN REBOUNDING 925/850 MB TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS DROP OFF SOME BUT WE KEEP THE HIGHER
SUSTAINED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRATOCU DECK BEGINS TO THIN
AND SCATTER OUT LATE TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR. MORE GUSTY NW WINDS, AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS, WILL
COMMENCE BY LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: VFR WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS SHIFTING
TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY. SOME HIGHER GUSTS EARLY IN THE EVENING.

TUESDAY...SOME RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT - SUNDAY...SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS ALL OUR WATERS
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS, AROUND 25 TO 30
KNOTS, WILL CONTINUE...AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY WE COULD SEE CLOSE TO
GALE FORCE GUSTS WITH THE POTENTIAL WIND FUNNELING. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AROUND 4 TO 7 FEET ON THE OCEANFRONT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: EARLY IN THE EVENING SEAS ARE STILL LIKELY TO BE
AROUND FIVE FEET WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THESE VALUES WILL BE DECREASING BELOW SCA THRESHOLD EARLY AND WILL
ALLOW THE SCA TO EXPIRE EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING: SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BUT INCREASING WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY: OVERALL THINKING IS THAT
WAVEWATCH IS UNDERDONE. SEAS WILL LIKELY OR OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH
MOST OF THIS PERIOD. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON/HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER
MARINE...GAINES/HEAVENER








000
FXUS61 KPHI 190134
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
934 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MOVE OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. BY TUESDAY A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE
CAROLINA COASTLINE. THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL INTERACT
WITH EACH OTHER AND MERGE JUST OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
DEPARTING THE REGION BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
MOST OF THE ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT WERE TO OUR NORTHWEST
HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED AS DAYTIME HEATING HAS BEEN LOST, EXCEPT
FOR A FEW SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
THE AREA. THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
THIS EVENING, BUT NOT MUCH MORE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WE
GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

THE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP OFF THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, BUT A
STEADY BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED, SO EVEN WITH THE COOLER
DEWPOINTS AND AIRMASS IN PLACE, TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE ABLE TO
DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID-40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH TOMORROW LATE MORNING
AND WE SEE ANOTHER BOUT OF STRONGER NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS WITH MUCH
BETTER COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH
NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, SHOULD BE DRY AS IT PUSHES THROUGH
BUT THE AIRMASS WILL BE NEARLY 10-15 DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY`S.
HIGHS WILL END UP BEING IN THE LOW TO MID-50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, GOOD SET-UP FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. DEWPOINTS BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS IN THIS PERIOD ARE
MODELED IN THE MID TO UPPER 20`S. CURRENT THINKING IS THE GFS AND
THE RESPECTIVE MAV GUIDANCE ARE TO AGGRESSIVE WITH COOLER LOW
TEMPERATURES. EVEN WITH THAT THE MET GUIDANCE HAS LOWS RIGHT
AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY PRESENT FOR A FREEZE EVENT ACROSS CARBON,
MONROE AND SUSSEX COUNTIES SO A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: STILL LOOKS LIKE A NICE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFFSHORE, LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST. CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM TO
IMPACT THE REGION KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP. FAIRLY LIMITED
TEMPERATURE SPREAD AMONG THE VARIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECASTING TOOLS
WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 FOR MOST OF THE AREA, COOLER NW.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND BE SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD. THE END RESULT WILL BE GRAY GLOOMY COOLER DAYS FEATURING
RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. THE
FORMATION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL START WITH TWO PIECES, A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND COLD FRONT DIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND A LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE CAROLINAS. THE UPPER
LOW AND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO BRING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY TO THE REGION WITH A MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE
CAROLINA LOW WELL OFFSHORE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT WE BEGIN TO SEE MORE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE FEATURES, PHASING. THE MAIN LOW FORMS OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAJORITY
OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE BROUGHT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TO COMPARE
OUR REGION WOULD BE FAVORED FOR JUST SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS.

THE LAST TWO ECMWF RUNS SHOW AN INTERESTING INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE
WHICH ENHANCES SOME OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. ON THE OTHER HAND THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND CMC KEPT A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA DRY
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THIS PERIOD. IN TERMS OF THE ENSEMBLES SEVERAL WETTER
MEMBERS WERE PRESENT IN THE 06Z GEFS WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF SEEMED TO
BE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTHEAST COMPARED TO IT`S ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE
NAO IS LIKELY TO BE NEAR NEUTRAL, WHICH DOESN`T INSPIRE CONFIDENCE
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE THAN CURRENTLY
MODELED. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING SOMEWHAT THAT THIS PERIOD WILL
BE DOMINATED BY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS STARTING TUESDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY WITH AREAS FURTHER NORTHEAST CLOSER TO
THE LOW STANDING THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE A MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP AT
NIGHT CLOSE TO 50 FOR MOST OF US WHILE HIGHS STRUGGLE INTO THE LOW
60`S, COOLER NW. NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE MODELS AND THERE
ENSEMBLES/ STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES. IN TERMS OF TIDES
ONCE A BETTER HANDLE OF THE LOW PRESSURE POSITION AND WIND
DIRECTION ARE ESTABLISHED CONFIDENCE WILL INCREASE ON WHAT IF ANY
TIDAL ISSUES WILL BE PRESENT.


FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN AT THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD. WENT
ON THE WARMER END OF THE MODEL SUITE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY CLOSER TO MEX GUIDANCE GIVEN REBOUNDING 925/850 MB TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS DROP OFF SOME BUT WE KEEP THE HIGHER
SUSTAINED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRATOCU DECK BEGINS TO THIN
AND SCATTER OUT LATE TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR. MORE GUSTY NW WINDS, AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS, WILL
COMMENCE BY LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: VFR WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS SHIFTING
TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY. SOME HIGHER GUSTS EARLY IN THE EVENING.

TUESDAY...SOME RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT - SUNDAY...SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS ALL OUR WATERS
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS, AROUND 25 TO 30
KNOTS, WILL CONTINUE...AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY WE COULD SEE CLOSE TO
GALE FORCE GUSTS WITH THE POTENTIAL WIND FUNNELING. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AROUND 4 TO 7 FEET ON THE OCEANFRONT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: EARLY IN THE EVENING SEAS ARE STILL LIKELY TO BE
AROUND FIVE FEET WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THESE VALUES WILL BE DECREASING BELOW SCA THRESHOLD EARLY AND WILL
ALLOW THE SCA TO EXPIRE EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING: SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BUT INCREASING WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY: OVERALL THINKING IS THAT
WAVEWATCH IS UNDERDONE. SEAS WILL LIKELY OR OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH
MOST OF THIS PERIOD. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON/HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER
MARINE...GAINES/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 190127
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
927 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
POTENT S/W CROSSES THE FA BTWN 06Z-12Z. MSTR LIMITED TO MID LVLS
AS LWR LVLS REMAIN DRY. XPCT A VRBLY CLDY NIGHT AHEAD. LOWS L-M40S
INLAND...U40S-L50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY
MORNING, AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SURGES INTO THE REGION IN
ITS WAKE FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CAA WANES AS PRES GRADIENT
RELAXES...BUT NW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST RESULT IN A COOLER, ALBEIT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SUNDAY. LOCAL THICKNESS TOOL YIELD
TEMPS IN THE LOW- MID 60S...NEARLY 1 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL.

TEMPERATURES DROP QUICKLY SUN DAY NIGHT AS SFC HIGH BECOMES
CENTERED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. GIVEN MOSTLY CLR SKY AND WINDS
BECOMING CALM/LIGHT, AND FALLING DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW
30S...GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AND SHOULD RESULT IN
THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. MODEL GUIDANCE A BIT
QUICKER TO INDICATE INCREASING WAA TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY MORNING, SO
A MINOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENT TO FORECAST LOWS WAS MADE. STILL
EXPECTING LOWS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS INLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT, WHILE TEMPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DROP ONLY
INTO THE LOW-MID 40S. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FROST IN MORE
SHELTERED LOCALES EARLY MONDAY MORNING, AND WILL CONTINUE MENTION
IN HWO FOR NOW.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE MONDAY AS FLOW RETURNS TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. ONGOING WEAK WAA AND MODEST HEIGHT RISES
YIELD SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPS MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
60S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NEXT UPPER TROUGH/CLIPPER LOW
DROPS SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY, AND DIGS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

REMOVED ANY POP MENTION ON MONDAY. WHILE MODELS DO SEEM INTENT ON
SOME VERY LIGHT QPF AFTER 18Z, OVERRUNNING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH CLIPPER LOW LKLY NOT ENOUGH INITIALLY TO OVERCOME ANTECEDENT
DRY AIR IN PLACE UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AFTER 12Z TUE. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH MILDER EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW 50S
TO NEAR 60 MONDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LOW LOOKS TO SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC ON
TUESDAY, WITH SCT SHRAS EXPECTED (MAINLY NORTH) TUESDAY AS VORT
LOBE SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE, HIGHS IN THE U60S TO
L70S ARE EXPECTED UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF AND SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUE NIGHT/WED...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATE THURS INTO FRI. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY TO
REFLECT A 25-40% CHC OF SHOWERS TUE NIGHT/WED (HIGHEST NE
ZONES)...TAPERING TO 20-30% THURSDAY MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
SHORE/COASTAL WATERS. DRY WX RETURNS ALL AREAS FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM AND LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW (WED/THU) SHOULD RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS WED/THU
MID/UPR 50S NW TO LOW/MID 60S SE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE IN
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. FRI/SAT`S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
60S ALL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRATOCU DECK WITH BASES AROUND 6-8K FT...SUPPORTED BY A STRONG
SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS GOING SCT WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. NW WINDS CONTINUE AT AROUND 7 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

LAVMOS INDICATES GUSTY NW WINDS ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY...PROBABLY A TAD
WEAKER THAN THEY WERE SATURDAY. NAM BUFR SOUNDING INDICATES SCT CU
OR SC AT AROUND 5K FT DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. NEXT
FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY THEN LINGERS OFF
THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PSBL
SHOWERS. WINDS FROM THE NW MAY BE GUSTY TOWARD THE COAST WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES WERE RAISED OVER THE BAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA. SEAS
ARE STILL AROUND 5 FEET WELL OFFSHORE SO SCA HEADLINES FOR COASTAL
WATERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY/TONIGHT/SUN (LINGERING INTO SUN EVENING
N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND).

MORE SIGNIFICANT WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND
WILL LAST THROUGH SUN MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT
AS STRONG CAA PUSHES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS. WINDS OVER
THE BAY AND OCEAN ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KT
SUSTAINED WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT (AN OCCASIONAL GUST
CLOSE TO GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT 06-12Z BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT GALES). WINDS WILL BE A FEW KNOTS LESS ACRS THE
RIVERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND (SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT). WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 4 FT ON THE BAY.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-6 FT ON THE OCEAN OFFSHORE BUT GENLY REMAIN
CAPPED AT AROUND 4 FT NEARSHORE DUE TO OFFSHORE NW FLOW. RIVERS
WILL SEE WAVES AROUND 2 FT...ALTHOUGH THE JAMES WILL LIKELY REACH
2-3 FT. HAVE HELD OFF ON SCA HEADLINES FOR THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND
UNTIL CURRENT ONES EXPIRE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR SCA
CONDITIONS.

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUN NIGHT/MON...ALLOWING
SUB- SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL
UNCERTAINTY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS
LATE TUES...ACCOMPANIED BY CAA AND MORE SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE COAST THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH
MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HAVE HIGHLIGHTED BREEZY/DRY CONDITIONS IN FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS INDICATE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS TOMORROW AFTN. THIS, IN TANDEM WITH DRYING
FUELS AND STILL-GUSTY NNW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER EASTERN
SHORE ZONES WILL YIELD RH IN THE 35% RANGE AND WINDS THAT
APPROACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. CERTAINLY WORTH HIGHLIGHTING THE
THREAT, ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE DRY FROPA THIS AFTN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...JDM
FIRE WEATHER...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 190127
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
927 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
POTENT S/W CROSSES THE FA BTWN 06Z-12Z. MSTR LIMITED TO MID LVLS
AS LWR LVLS REMAIN DRY. XPCT A VRBLY CLDY NIGHT AHEAD. LOWS L-M40S
INLAND...U40S-L50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY
MORNING, AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SURGES INTO THE REGION IN
ITS WAKE FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CAA WANES AS PRES GRADIENT
RELAXES...BUT NW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST RESULT IN A COOLER, ALBEIT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SUNDAY. LOCAL THICKNESS TOOL YIELD
TEMPS IN THE LOW- MID 60S...NEARLY 1 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL.

TEMPERATURES DROP QUICKLY SUN DAY NIGHT AS SFC HIGH BECOMES
CENTERED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. GIVEN MOSTLY CLR SKY AND WINDS
BECOMING CALM/LIGHT, AND FALLING DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW
30S...GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AND SHOULD RESULT IN
THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. MODEL GUIDANCE A BIT
QUICKER TO INDICATE INCREASING WAA TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY MORNING, SO
A MINOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENT TO FORECAST LOWS WAS MADE. STILL
EXPECTING LOWS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS INLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT, WHILE TEMPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DROP ONLY
INTO THE LOW-MID 40S. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FROST IN MORE
SHELTERED LOCALES EARLY MONDAY MORNING, AND WILL CONTINUE MENTION
IN HWO FOR NOW.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE MONDAY AS FLOW RETURNS TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. ONGOING WEAK WAA AND MODEST HEIGHT RISES
YIELD SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPS MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
60S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NEXT UPPER TROUGH/CLIPPER LOW
DROPS SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY, AND DIGS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

REMOVED ANY POP MENTION ON MONDAY. WHILE MODELS DO SEEM INTENT ON
SOME VERY LIGHT QPF AFTER 18Z, OVERRUNNING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH CLIPPER LOW LKLY NOT ENOUGH INITIALLY TO OVERCOME ANTECEDENT
DRY AIR IN PLACE UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AFTER 12Z TUE. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH MILDER EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW 50S
TO NEAR 60 MONDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LOW LOOKS TO SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC ON
TUESDAY, WITH SCT SHRAS EXPECTED (MAINLY NORTH) TUESDAY AS VORT
LOBE SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE, HIGHS IN THE U60S TO
L70S ARE EXPECTED UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF AND SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUE NIGHT/WED...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATE THURS INTO FRI. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY TO
REFLECT A 25-40% CHC OF SHOWERS TUE NIGHT/WED (HIGHEST NE
ZONES)...TAPERING TO 20-30% THURSDAY MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
SHORE/COASTAL WATERS. DRY WX RETURNS ALL AREAS FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM AND LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW (WED/THU) SHOULD RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS WED/THU
MID/UPR 50S NW TO LOW/MID 60S SE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE IN
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. FRI/SAT`S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
60S ALL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRATOCU DECK WITH BASES AROUND 6-8K FT...SUPPORTED BY A STRONG
SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS GOING SCT WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. NW WINDS CONTINUE AT AROUND 7 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

LAVMOS INDICATES GUSTY NW WINDS ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY...PROBABLY A TAD
WEAKER THAN THEY WERE SATURDAY. NAM BUFR SOUNDING INDICATES SCT CU
OR SC AT AROUND 5K FT DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. NEXT
FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY THEN LINGERS OFF
THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PSBL
SHOWERS. WINDS FROM THE NW MAY BE GUSTY TOWARD THE COAST WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES WERE RAISED OVER THE BAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA. SEAS
ARE STILL AROUND 5 FEET WELL OFFSHORE SO SCA HEADLINES FOR COASTAL
WATERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY/TONIGHT/SUN (LINGERING INTO SUN EVENING
N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND).

MORE SIGNIFICANT WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND
WILL LAST THROUGH SUN MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT
AS STRONG CAA PUSHES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS. WINDS OVER
THE BAY AND OCEAN ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KT
SUSTAINED WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT (AN OCCASIONAL GUST
CLOSE TO GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT 06-12Z BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT GALES). WINDS WILL BE A FEW KNOTS LESS ACRS THE
RIVERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND (SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT). WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 4 FT ON THE BAY.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-6 FT ON THE OCEAN OFFSHORE BUT GENLY REMAIN
CAPPED AT AROUND 4 FT NEARSHORE DUE TO OFFSHORE NW FLOW. RIVERS
WILL SEE WAVES AROUND 2 FT...ALTHOUGH THE JAMES WILL LIKELY REACH
2-3 FT. HAVE HELD OFF ON SCA HEADLINES FOR THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND
UNTIL CURRENT ONES EXPIRE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR SCA
CONDITIONS.

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUN NIGHT/MON...ALLOWING
SUB- SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL
UNCERTAINTY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS
LATE TUES...ACCOMPANIED BY CAA AND MORE SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE COAST THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH
MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HAVE HIGHLIGHTED BREEZY/DRY CONDITIONS IN FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS INDICATE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS TOMORROW AFTN. THIS, IN TANDEM WITH DRYING
FUELS AND STILL-GUSTY NNW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER EASTERN
SHORE ZONES WILL YIELD RH IN THE 35% RANGE AND WINDS THAT
APPROACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. CERTAINLY WORTH HIGHLIGHTING THE
THREAT, ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE DRY FROPA THIS AFTN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...JDM
FIRE WEATHER...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 190127
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
927 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
POTENT S/W CROSSES THE FA BTWN 06Z-12Z. MSTR LIMITED TO MID LVLS
AS LWR LVLS REMAIN DRY. XPCT A VRBLY CLDY NIGHT AHEAD. LOWS L-M40S
INLAND...U40S-L50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY
MORNING, AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SURGES INTO THE REGION IN
ITS WAKE FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CAA WANES AS PRES GRADIENT
RELAXES...BUT NW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST RESULT IN A COOLER, ALBEIT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SUNDAY. LOCAL THICKNESS TOOL YIELD
TEMPS IN THE LOW- MID 60S...NEARLY 1 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL.

TEMPERATURES DROP QUICKLY SUN DAY NIGHT AS SFC HIGH BECOMES
CENTERED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. GIVEN MOSTLY CLR SKY AND WINDS
BECOMING CALM/LIGHT, AND FALLING DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW
30S...GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AND SHOULD RESULT IN
THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. MODEL GUIDANCE A BIT
QUICKER TO INDICATE INCREASING WAA TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY MORNING, SO
A MINOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENT TO FORECAST LOWS WAS MADE. STILL
EXPECTING LOWS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS INLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT, WHILE TEMPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DROP ONLY
INTO THE LOW-MID 40S. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FROST IN MORE
SHELTERED LOCALES EARLY MONDAY MORNING, AND WILL CONTINUE MENTION
IN HWO FOR NOW.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE MONDAY AS FLOW RETURNS TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. ONGOING WEAK WAA AND MODEST HEIGHT RISES
YIELD SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPS MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
60S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NEXT UPPER TROUGH/CLIPPER LOW
DROPS SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY, AND DIGS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

REMOVED ANY POP MENTION ON MONDAY. WHILE MODELS DO SEEM INTENT ON
SOME VERY LIGHT QPF AFTER 18Z, OVERRUNNING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH CLIPPER LOW LKLY NOT ENOUGH INITIALLY TO OVERCOME ANTECEDENT
DRY AIR IN PLACE UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AFTER 12Z TUE. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH MILDER EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW 50S
TO NEAR 60 MONDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LOW LOOKS TO SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC ON
TUESDAY, WITH SCT SHRAS EXPECTED (MAINLY NORTH) TUESDAY AS VORT
LOBE SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE, HIGHS IN THE U60S TO
L70S ARE EXPECTED UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF AND SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUE NIGHT/WED...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATE THURS INTO FRI. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY TO
REFLECT A 25-40% CHC OF SHOWERS TUE NIGHT/WED (HIGHEST NE
ZONES)...TAPERING TO 20-30% THURSDAY MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
SHORE/COASTAL WATERS. DRY WX RETURNS ALL AREAS FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM AND LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW (WED/THU) SHOULD RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS WED/THU
MID/UPR 50S NW TO LOW/MID 60S SE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE IN
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. FRI/SAT`S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
60S ALL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRATOCU DECK WITH BASES AROUND 6-8K FT...SUPPORTED BY A STRONG
SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS GOING SCT WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. NW WINDS CONTINUE AT AROUND 7 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

LAVMOS INDICATES GUSTY NW WINDS ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY...PROBABLY A TAD
WEAKER THAN THEY WERE SATURDAY. NAM BUFR SOUNDING INDICATES SCT CU
OR SC AT AROUND 5K FT DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. NEXT
FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY THEN LINGERS OFF
THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PSBL
SHOWERS. WINDS FROM THE NW MAY BE GUSTY TOWARD THE COAST WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES WERE RAISED OVER THE BAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA. SEAS
ARE STILL AROUND 5 FEET WELL OFFSHORE SO SCA HEADLINES FOR COASTAL
WATERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY/TONIGHT/SUN (LINGERING INTO SUN EVENING
N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND).

MORE SIGNIFICANT WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND
WILL LAST THROUGH SUN MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT
AS STRONG CAA PUSHES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS. WINDS OVER
THE BAY AND OCEAN ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KT
SUSTAINED WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT (AN OCCASIONAL GUST
CLOSE TO GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT 06-12Z BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT GALES). WINDS WILL BE A FEW KNOTS LESS ACRS THE
RIVERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND (SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT). WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 4 FT ON THE BAY.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-6 FT ON THE OCEAN OFFSHORE BUT GENLY REMAIN
CAPPED AT AROUND 4 FT NEARSHORE DUE TO OFFSHORE NW FLOW. RIVERS
WILL SEE WAVES AROUND 2 FT...ALTHOUGH THE JAMES WILL LIKELY REACH
2-3 FT. HAVE HELD OFF ON SCA HEADLINES FOR THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND
UNTIL CURRENT ONES EXPIRE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR SCA
CONDITIONS.

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUN NIGHT/MON...ALLOWING
SUB- SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL
UNCERTAINTY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS
LATE TUES...ACCOMPANIED BY CAA AND MORE SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE COAST THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH
MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HAVE HIGHLIGHTED BREEZY/DRY CONDITIONS IN FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS INDICATE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS TOMORROW AFTN. THIS, IN TANDEM WITH DRYING
FUELS AND STILL-GUSTY NNW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER EASTERN
SHORE ZONES WILL YIELD RH IN THE 35% RANGE AND WINDS THAT
APPROACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. CERTAINLY WORTH HIGHLIGHTING THE
THREAT, ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE DRY FROPA THIS AFTN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...JDM
FIRE WEATHER...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 190127
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
927 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
POTENT S/W CROSSES THE FA BTWN 06Z-12Z. MSTR LIMITED TO MID LVLS
AS LWR LVLS REMAIN DRY. XPCT A VRBLY CLDY NIGHT AHEAD. LOWS L-M40S
INLAND...U40S-L50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY
MORNING, AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SURGES INTO THE REGION IN
ITS WAKE FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CAA WANES AS PRES GRADIENT
RELAXES...BUT NW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST RESULT IN A COOLER, ALBEIT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SUNDAY. LOCAL THICKNESS TOOL YIELD
TEMPS IN THE LOW- MID 60S...NEARLY 1 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL.

TEMPERATURES DROP QUICKLY SUN DAY NIGHT AS SFC HIGH BECOMES
CENTERED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. GIVEN MOSTLY CLR SKY AND WINDS
BECOMING CALM/LIGHT, AND FALLING DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW
30S...GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AND SHOULD RESULT IN
THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. MODEL GUIDANCE A BIT
QUICKER TO INDICATE INCREASING WAA TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY MORNING, SO
A MINOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENT TO FORECAST LOWS WAS MADE. STILL
EXPECTING LOWS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS INLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT, WHILE TEMPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DROP ONLY
INTO THE LOW-MID 40S. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FROST IN MORE
SHELTERED LOCALES EARLY MONDAY MORNING, AND WILL CONTINUE MENTION
IN HWO FOR NOW.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE MONDAY AS FLOW RETURNS TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. ONGOING WEAK WAA AND MODEST HEIGHT RISES
YIELD SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPS MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
60S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NEXT UPPER TROUGH/CLIPPER LOW
DROPS SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY, AND DIGS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

REMOVED ANY POP MENTION ON MONDAY. WHILE MODELS DO SEEM INTENT ON
SOME VERY LIGHT QPF AFTER 18Z, OVERRUNNING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH CLIPPER LOW LKLY NOT ENOUGH INITIALLY TO OVERCOME ANTECEDENT
DRY AIR IN PLACE UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AFTER 12Z TUE. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH MILDER EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW 50S
TO NEAR 60 MONDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LOW LOOKS TO SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC ON
TUESDAY, WITH SCT SHRAS EXPECTED (MAINLY NORTH) TUESDAY AS VORT
LOBE SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE, HIGHS IN THE U60S TO
L70S ARE EXPECTED UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF AND SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUE NIGHT/WED...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATE THURS INTO FRI. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY TO
REFLECT A 25-40% CHC OF SHOWERS TUE NIGHT/WED (HIGHEST NE
ZONES)...TAPERING TO 20-30% THURSDAY MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
SHORE/COASTAL WATERS. DRY WX RETURNS ALL AREAS FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM AND LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW (WED/THU) SHOULD RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS WED/THU
MID/UPR 50S NW TO LOW/MID 60S SE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE IN
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. FRI/SAT`S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
60S ALL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRATOCU DECK WITH BASES AROUND 6-8K FT...SUPPORTED BY A STRONG
SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS GOING SCT WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. NW WINDS CONTINUE AT AROUND 7 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

LAVMOS INDICATES GUSTY NW WINDS ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY...PROBABLY A TAD
WEAKER THAN THEY WERE SATURDAY. NAM BUFR SOUNDING INDICATES SCT CU
OR SC AT AROUND 5K FT DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. NEXT
FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY THEN LINGERS OFF
THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PSBL
SHOWERS. WINDS FROM THE NW MAY BE GUSTY TOWARD THE COAST WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES WERE RAISED OVER THE BAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA. SEAS
ARE STILL AROUND 5 FEET WELL OFFSHORE SO SCA HEADLINES FOR COASTAL
WATERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY/TONIGHT/SUN (LINGERING INTO SUN EVENING
N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND).

MORE SIGNIFICANT WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND
WILL LAST THROUGH SUN MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT
AS STRONG CAA PUSHES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS. WINDS OVER
THE BAY AND OCEAN ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KT
SUSTAINED WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT (AN OCCASIONAL GUST
CLOSE TO GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT 06-12Z BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT GALES). WINDS WILL BE A FEW KNOTS LESS ACRS THE
RIVERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND (SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT). WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 4 FT ON THE BAY.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-6 FT ON THE OCEAN OFFSHORE BUT GENLY REMAIN
CAPPED AT AROUND 4 FT NEARSHORE DUE TO OFFSHORE NW FLOW. RIVERS
WILL SEE WAVES AROUND 2 FT...ALTHOUGH THE JAMES WILL LIKELY REACH
2-3 FT. HAVE HELD OFF ON SCA HEADLINES FOR THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND
UNTIL CURRENT ONES EXPIRE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR SCA
CONDITIONS.

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUN NIGHT/MON...ALLOWING
SUB- SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL
UNCERTAINTY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS
LATE TUES...ACCOMPANIED BY CAA AND MORE SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE COAST THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH
MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HAVE HIGHLIGHTED BREEZY/DRY CONDITIONS IN FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS INDICATE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS TOMORROW AFTN. THIS, IN TANDEM WITH DRYING
FUELS AND STILL-GUSTY NNW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER EASTERN
SHORE ZONES WILL YIELD RH IN THE 35% RANGE AND WINDS THAT
APPROACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. CERTAINLY WORTH HIGHLIGHTING THE
THREAT, ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE DRY FROPA THIS AFTN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...JDM
FIRE WEATHER...






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