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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 231454
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1054 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST
OF THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND SLOWLY BUILDS
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE SETTLING OVER THE
PIEDMONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE HRRR AND RUC ALL INDICATE THE SHOWERS OVER THE SW PART OF THE
CWA WILL CONTINUE SE AND EXIT THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHER
SHOWERS OVER MD WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN NECK AND THE DELMARVA
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE WILL BE WEAKENING AS THEY
ENCOUNTER DRIER AIR. HAVE RAISED POPS SOME ALONG THE LINES OF BOTH
AREAS OF SHOWERS. ALSO HAVE LOWERED THE MAX TEMPERATURE A LITTLE
AS NOT MUCH SUNSHINE TODAY AND WITH WINDS COMING OFF THE OCEAN
WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS HI PRES CENTERED OVR NEW
ENGLAND AND A DISORGANIZED PRES FIELD OVR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
COINCIDING WITH A WEAK STALLED FRNTAL BNDRY. ALOFT...NW FLOW
CONTINUES WITH AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVR THE E-CNTRL CONUS.
THE SFC FRNT WILL SAG S INTO THE CAROLINAS TDA. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY
WITH SCT SHRAS/TSTMS...ESPECIALLY OVR THE PIEDMONT CLOSER TO THE
FRNT. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WILL BE CONFINED AWAY FROM THE
CSTS DUE TO NE FLOW WITH HI PRES BLDG OVR NEW ENGLAND. NOT
EXPECTING ANY SVR WX BUT HEAVY RAIN IS PSBL IN SOME AREAS. AFTN HI
TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 70S TO NEAR 80 OVR THE LWR ERN SHORE
TO THE LO-MID 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE HIGH SURGES SSW OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SETTLING OVER THE PIEDMONT BY MONDAY. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A DRYING TREND ALONG WITH A NE WIND THAT SHOULD BE RATHER
BREEZY ALONG THE COAST. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

HIGHS WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH MONDAY (AROUND -1
ST DEV). HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
MAINLY LOW/MID 60S EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL
MAINTAIN A COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED BEFORE THE
RIDGE AXES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT ALOFT BEGIN TO SHIFT JUST EAST OF
THE FA...AND MOVING OFFSHORE BY THU. THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY DRY
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS DUE TO WELL-ESTABLISHED
SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE...HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE FAR SE VA/NE NC COAST ON WED DUE TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL SYSTEM
PASSING WELL TO THE EAST. HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW
NORMAL FROM MON NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT (LOWS IN THE 60S...UPPER
50S FAR WRN COUNTIES/HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S...MID-UPPER 70S
BEACHES) AND THEN REBOUND TWD SEASONAL NORMALS THU/THU NIGHT
(HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S...UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S BEACHES/LOWS IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S...AROUND 70 BEACHES).

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KEPT A TEMPO GROUP FOR -RA NEXT FEW HOURS AT KRIC AS THE BATCH OF
RAIN CROSSES THE PIEDMONT. OTW...HIGH PRS TO THE NE ALLOWING FOR
DRYER AIR ALONG THE COAST WITH MAINLY VFR CNDTNS THIS AM. EXPECT
VFR CIGS TODAY WITH TSCTNS SHOWING PLNTY OF MOISTURE ARND THE AREA
FOR A BKN SC DECK (3-4K FT) THRU MUCH OF THE FCST PRD WITH MVFR
CIGS RETURNING AFTER 00Z. SCT CONVECTION PSBL AFTER 18Z...BUT
TIMING OF ANY SHWR/TSTRM PROBLEMATIC AT THIS POINT SO KEPT PCPN
OUT OF FCST AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PSBL DUE TO STRATUS/FOG SUN MORNING.
OTW...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEGINNING SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND. DESPITE THE ONGOING E-NE WINDS...LATEST
GUIDANCE NOT AS BULLISH WITH THE WINDS THUS CREATING SOME DOUBT
WHEN SCA CONDITIONS WILL START. TOUGHEST CALL WILL BE SOUTHERN CHES
BAY WHERE ONLY MINIMAL CONDITIONS WILL BE MEET. MOUTH OF THE BAY
WILL HAVE AN EARLIER START AND LATER FINISH TIME. SEAS (ESPECIALLY
OUT NEAR 20 NM) ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 5 FEET THEN REMAIN THERE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO EXTENDED THE SCA HEADLINES OVR THE
WATERS THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR CONTINUITY SAKE...WENT AHEAD AND
HOISTED SCA HEADLINES FOR CURRITUCK SND SUN AND SUN NIGHT AS SCNDRY
SURGE WILL LIKELY KEEP WINDS BTWN 15-20 KTS.

FORECAST NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF A DEVELOPING
(TROPICAL) LOW PROGGED TO TRACK NE BUT REMAIN EAST OF GULF STREAM
WALL. SWELL FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT THE MID ATLNTC
BEACH AREAS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES PROGGED TO BUILD TO ABOUT 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THE NE FLOW CONTINUES. DESPITE THE PERSISTANT ONSHORE FLOW...LEVELS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOUT 1/2 FOOT BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

WENT WITH A MODERATE RIP CURRENT THREAT TODAY GIVEN NEARSHORE WAVES
OF 2-3 FT AND A INCREASING NE WIND FLOW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ632.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS/JAB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAS
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 231454
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1054 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST
OF THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND SLOWLY BUILDS
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE SETTLING OVER THE
PIEDMONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE HRRR AND RUC ALL INDICATE THE SHOWERS OVER THE SW PART OF THE
CWA WILL CONTINUE SE AND EXIT THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHER
SHOWERS OVER MD WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN NECK AND THE DELMARVA
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE WILL BE WEAKENING AS THEY
ENCOUNTER DRIER AIR. HAVE RAISED POPS SOME ALONG THE LINES OF BOTH
AREAS OF SHOWERS. ALSO HAVE LOWERED THE MAX TEMPERATURE A LITTLE
AS NOT MUCH SUNSHINE TODAY AND WITH WINDS COMING OFF THE OCEAN
WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS HI PRES CENTERED OVR NEW
ENGLAND AND A DISORGANIZED PRES FIELD OVR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
COINCIDING WITH A WEAK STALLED FRNTAL BNDRY. ALOFT...NW FLOW
CONTINUES WITH AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVR THE E-CNTRL CONUS.
THE SFC FRNT WILL SAG S INTO THE CAROLINAS TDA. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY
WITH SCT SHRAS/TSTMS...ESPECIALLY OVR THE PIEDMONT CLOSER TO THE
FRNT. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WILL BE CONFINED AWAY FROM THE
CSTS DUE TO NE FLOW WITH HI PRES BLDG OVR NEW ENGLAND. NOT
EXPECTING ANY SVR WX BUT HEAVY RAIN IS PSBL IN SOME AREAS. AFTN HI
TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 70S TO NEAR 80 OVR THE LWR ERN SHORE
TO THE LO-MID 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE HIGH SURGES SSW OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SETTLING OVER THE PIEDMONT BY MONDAY. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A DRYING TREND ALONG WITH A NE WIND THAT SHOULD BE RATHER
BREEZY ALONG THE COAST. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

HIGHS WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH MONDAY (AROUND -1
ST DEV). HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
MAINLY LOW/MID 60S EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL
MAINTAIN A COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED BEFORE THE
RIDGE AXES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT ALOFT BEGIN TO SHIFT JUST EAST OF
THE FA...AND MOVING OFFSHORE BY THU. THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY DRY
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS DUE TO WELL-ESTABLISHED
SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE...HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE FAR SE VA/NE NC COAST ON WED DUE TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL SYSTEM
PASSING WELL TO THE EAST. HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW
NORMAL FROM MON NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT (LOWS IN THE 60S...UPPER
50S FAR WRN COUNTIES/HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S...MID-UPPER 70S
BEACHES) AND THEN REBOUND TWD SEASONAL NORMALS THU/THU NIGHT
(HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S...UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S BEACHES/LOWS IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S...AROUND 70 BEACHES).

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KEPT A TEMPO GROUP FOR -RA NEXT FEW HOURS AT KRIC AS THE BATCH OF
RAIN CROSSES THE PIEDMONT. OTW...HIGH PRS TO THE NE ALLOWING FOR
DRYER AIR ALONG THE COAST WITH MAINLY VFR CNDTNS THIS AM. EXPECT
VFR CIGS TODAY WITH TSCTNS SHOWING PLNTY OF MOISTURE ARND THE AREA
FOR A BKN SC DECK (3-4K FT) THRU MUCH OF THE FCST PRD WITH MVFR
CIGS RETURNING AFTER 00Z. SCT CONVECTION PSBL AFTER 18Z...BUT
TIMING OF ANY SHWR/TSTRM PROBLEMATIC AT THIS POINT SO KEPT PCPN
OUT OF FCST AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PSBL DUE TO STRATUS/FOG SUN MORNING.
OTW...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEGINNING SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND. DESPITE THE ONGOING E-NE WINDS...LATEST
GUIDANCE NOT AS BULLISH WITH THE WINDS THUS CREATING SOME DOUBT
WHEN SCA CONDITIONS WILL START. TOUGHEST CALL WILL BE SOUTHERN CHES
BAY WHERE ONLY MINIMAL CONDITIONS WILL BE MEET. MOUTH OF THE BAY
WILL HAVE AN EARLIER START AND LATER FINISH TIME. SEAS (ESPECIALLY
OUT NEAR 20 NM) ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 5 FEET THEN REMAIN THERE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO EXTENDED THE SCA HEADLINES OVR THE
WATERS THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR CONTINUITY SAKE...WENT AHEAD AND
HOISTED SCA HEADLINES FOR CURRITUCK SND SUN AND SUN NIGHT AS SCNDRY
SURGE WILL LIKELY KEEP WINDS BTWN 15-20 KTS.

FORECAST NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF A DEVELOPING
(TROPICAL) LOW PROGGED TO TRACK NE BUT REMAIN EAST OF GULF STREAM
WALL. SWELL FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT THE MID ATLNTC
BEACH AREAS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES PROGGED TO BUILD TO ABOUT 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THE NE FLOW CONTINUES. DESPITE THE PERSISTANT ONSHORE FLOW...LEVELS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOUT 1/2 FOOT BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

WENT WITH A MODERATE RIP CURRENT THREAT TODAY GIVEN NEARSHORE WAVES
OF 2-3 FT AND A INCREASING NE WIND FLOW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ632.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS/JAB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAS
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 231454
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1054 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST
OF THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND SLOWLY BUILDS
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE SETTLING OVER THE
PIEDMONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE HRRR AND RUC ALL INDICATE THE SHOWERS OVER THE SW PART OF THE
CWA WILL CONTINUE SE AND EXIT THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHER
SHOWERS OVER MD WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN NECK AND THE DELMARVA
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE WILL BE WEAKENING AS THEY
ENCOUNTER DRIER AIR. HAVE RAISED POPS SOME ALONG THE LINES OF BOTH
AREAS OF SHOWERS. ALSO HAVE LOWERED THE MAX TEMPERATURE A LITTLE
AS NOT MUCH SUNSHINE TODAY AND WITH WINDS COMING OFF THE OCEAN
WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS HI PRES CENTERED OVR NEW
ENGLAND AND A DISORGANIZED PRES FIELD OVR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
COINCIDING WITH A WEAK STALLED FRNTAL BNDRY. ALOFT...NW FLOW
CONTINUES WITH AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVR THE E-CNTRL CONUS.
THE SFC FRNT WILL SAG S INTO THE CAROLINAS TDA. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY
WITH SCT SHRAS/TSTMS...ESPECIALLY OVR THE PIEDMONT CLOSER TO THE
FRNT. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WILL BE CONFINED AWAY FROM THE
CSTS DUE TO NE FLOW WITH HI PRES BLDG OVR NEW ENGLAND. NOT
EXPECTING ANY SVR WX BUT HEAVY RAIN IS PSBL IN SOME AREAS. AFTN HI
TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 70S TO NEAR 80 OVR THE LWR ERN SHORE
TO THE LO-MID 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE HIGH SURGES SSW OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SETTLING OVER THE PIEDMONT BY MONDAY. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A DRYING TREND ALONG WITH A NE WIND THAT SHOULD BE RATHER
BREEZY ALONG THE COAST. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

HIGHS WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH MONDAY (AROUND -1
ST DEV). HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
MAINLY LOW/MID 60S EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL
MAINTAIN A COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED BEFORE THE
RIDGE AXES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT ALOFT BEGIN TO SHIFT JUST EAST OF
THE FA...AND MOVING OFFSHORE BY THU. THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY DRY
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS DUE TO WELL-ESTABLISHED
SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE...HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE FAR SE VA/NE NC COAST ON WED DUE TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL SYSTEM
PASSING WELL TO THE EAST. HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW
NORMAL FROM MON NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT (LOWS IN THE 60S...UPPER
50S FAR WRN COUNTIES/HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S...MID-UPPER 70S
BEACHES) AND THEN REBOUND TWD SEASONAL NORMALS THU/THU NIGHT
(HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S...UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S BEACHES/LOWS IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S...AROUND 70 BEACHES).

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KEPT A TEMPO GROUP FOR -RA NEXT FEW HOURS AT KRIC AS THE BATCH OF
RAIN CROSSES THE PIEDMONT. OTW...HIGH PRS TO THE NE ALLOWING FOR
DRYER AIR ALONG THE COAST WITH MAINLY VFR CNDTNS THIS AM. EXPECT
VFR CIGS TODAY WITH TSCTNS SHOWING PLNTY OF MOISTURE ARND THE AREA
FOR A BKN SC DECK (3-4K FT) THRU MUCH OF THE FCST PRD WITH MVFR
CIGS RETURNING AFTER 00Z. SCT CONVECTION PSBL AFTER 18Z...BUT
TIMING OF ANY SHWR/TSTRM PROBLEMATIC AT THIS POINT SO KEPT PCPN
OUT OF FCST AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PSBL DUE TO STRATUS/FOG SUN MORNING.
OTW...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEGINNING SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND. DESPITE THE ONGOING E-NE WINDS...LATEST
GUIDANCE NOT AS BULLISH WITH THE WINDS THUS CREATING SOME DOUBT
WHEN SCA CONDITIONS WILL START. TOUGHEST CALL WILL BE SOUTHERN CHES
BAY WHERE ONLY MINIMAL CONDITIONS WILL BE MEET. MOUTH OF THE BAY
WILL HAVE AN EARLIER START AND LATER FINISH TIME. SEAS (ESPECIALLY
OUT NEAR 20 NM) ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 5 FEET THEN REMAIN THERE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO EXTENDED THE SCA HEADLINES OVR THE
WATERS THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR CONTINUITY SAKE...WENT AHEAD AND
HOISTED SCA HEADLINES FOR CURRITUCK SND SUN AND SUN NIGHT AS SCNDRY
SURGE WILL LIKELY KEEP WINDS BTWN 15-20 KTS.

FORECAST NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF A DEVELOPING
(TROPICAL) LOW PROGGED TO TRACK NE BUT REMAIN EAST OF GULF STREAM
WALL. SWELL FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT THE MID ATLNTC
BEACH AREAS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES PROGGED TO BUILD TO ABOUT 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THE NE FLOW CONTINUES. DESPITE THE PERSISTANT ONSHORE FLOW...LEVELS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOUT 1/2 FOOT BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

WENT WITH A MODERATE RIP CURRENT THREAT TODAY GIVEN NEARSHORE WAVES
OF 2-3 FT AND A INCREASING NE WIND FLOW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ632.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS/JAB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAS
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 231454
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1054 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST
OF THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND SLOWLY BUILDS
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE SETTLING OVER THE
PIEDMONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE HRRR AND RUC ALL INDICATE THE SHOWERS OVER THE SW PART OF THE
CWA WILL CONTINUE SE AND EXIT THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHER
SHOWERS OVER MD WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN NECK AND THE DELMARVA
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE WILL BE WEAKENING AS THEY
ENCOUNTER DRIER AIR. HAVE RAISED POPS SOME ALONG THE LINES OF BOTH
AREAS OF SHOWERS. ALSO HAVE LOWERED THE MAX TEMPERATURE A LITTLE
AS NOT MUCH SUNSHINE TODAY AND WITH WINDS COMING OFF THE OCEAN
WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS HI PRES CENTERED OVR NEW
ENGLAND AND A DISORGANIZED PRES FIELD OVR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
COINCIDING WITH A WEAK STALLED FRNTAL BNDRY. ALOFT...NW FLOW
CONTINUES WITH AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVR THE E-CNTRL CONUS.
THE SFC FRNT WILL SAG S INTO THE CAROLINAS TDA. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY
WITH SCT SHRAS/TSTMS...ESPECIALLY OVR THE PIEDMONT CLOSER TO THE
FRNT. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WILL BE CONFINED AWAY FROM THE
CSTS DUE TO NE FLOW WITH HI PRES BLDG OVR NEW ENGLAND. NOT
EXPECTING ANY SVR WX BUT HEAVY RAIN IS PSBL IN SOME AREAS. AFTN HI
TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 70S TO NEAR 80 OVR THE LWR ERN SHORE
TO THE LO-MID 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE HIGH SURGES SSW OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SETTLING OVER THE PIEDMONT BY MONDAY. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A DRYING TREND ALONG WITH A NE WIND THAT SHOULD BE RATHER
BREEZY ALONG THE COAST. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

HIGHS WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH MONDAY (AROUND -1
ST DEV). HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
MAINLY LOW/MID 60S EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL
MAINTAIN A COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED BEFORE THE
RIDGE AXES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT ALOFT BEGIN TO SHIFT JUST EAST OF
THE FA...AND MOVING OFFSHORE BY THU. THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY DRY
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS DUE TO WELL-ESTABLISHED
SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE...HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE FAR SE VA/NE NC COAST ON WED DUE TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL SYSTEM
PASSING WELL TO THE EAST. HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW
NORMAL FROM MON NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT (LOWS IN THE 60S...UPPER
50S FAR WRN COUNTIES/HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S...MID-UPPER 70S
BEACHES) AND THEN REBOUND TWD SEASONAL NORMALS THU/THU NIGHT
(HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S...UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S BEACHES/LOWS IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S...AROUND 70 BEACHES).

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KEPT A TEMPO GROUP FOR -RA NEXT FEW HOURS AT KRIC AS THE BATCH OF
RAIN CROSSES THE PIEDMONT. OTW...HIGH PRS TO THE NE ALLOWING FOR
DRYER AIR ALONG THE COAST WITH MAINLY VFR CNDTNS THIS AM. EXPECT
VFR CIGS TODAY WITH TSCTNS SHOWING PLNTY OF MOISTURE ARND THE AREA
FOR A BKN SC DECK (3-4K FT) THRU MUCH OF THE FCST PRD WITH MVFR
CIGS RETURNING AFTER 00Z. SCT CONVECTION PSBL AFTER 18Z...BUT
TIMING OF ANY SHWR/TSTRM PROBLEMATIC AT THIS POINT SO KEPT PCPN
OUT OF FCST AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PSBL DUE TO STRATUS/FOG SUN MORNING.
OTW...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEGINNING SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND. DESPITE THE ONGOING E-NE WINDS...LATEST
GUIDANCE NOT AS BULLISH WITH THE WINDS THUS CREATING SOME DOUBT
WHEN SCA CONDITIONS WILL START. TOUGHEST CALL WILL BE SOUTHERN CHES
BAY WHERE ONLY MINIMAL CONDITIONS WILL BE MEET. MOUTH OF THE BAY
WILL HAVE AN EARLIER START AND LATER FINISH TIME. SEAS (ESPECIALLY
OUT NEAR 20 NM) ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 5 FEET THEN REMAIN THERE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO EXTENDED THE SCA HEADLINES OVR THE
WATERS THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR CONTINUITY SAKE...WENT AHEAD AND
HOISTED SCA HEADLINES FOR CURRITUCK SND SUN AND SUN NIGHT AS SCNDRY
SURGE WILL LIKELY KEEP WINDS BTWN 15-20 KTS.

FORECAST NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF A DEVELOPING
(TROPICAL) LOW PROGGED TO TRACK NE BUT REMAIN EAST OF GULF STREAM
WALL. SWELL FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT THE MID ATLNTC
BEACH AREAS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES PROGGED TO BUILD TO ABOUT 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THE NE FLOW CONTINUES. DESPITE THE PERSISTANT ONSHORE FLOW...LEVELS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOUT 1/2 FOOT BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

WENT WITH A MODERATE RIP CURRENT THREAT TODAY GIVEN NEARSHORE WAVES
OF 2-3 FT AND A INCREASING NE WIND FLOW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ632.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS/JAB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAS
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





  [top]

000
FXUS61 KLWX 231407
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1007 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WESTWARD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DOWN
THE COAST...REACHING THE DELMARVA BY SUNDAY...AND REMAINING
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS LOCATED NEAR THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AND
AN EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY HAS CAUSED MOISTURE TO MOVE
IN FROM THE ATLANTIC.

THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS THE
COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES WEST INTO THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS TODAY.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW.
ALSO...THE FRONT IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW WHICH MEANS THE 850 MB
FRONT IS STILL OVERHEAD. THIS IS PROVIDING ENOUGH FORCING FOR
SHOWERS DESPITE DRIER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY FOR
THE REST OF TODAY WITH THE 850MB BOUNDARY REMAINING OVERHEAD.
THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. PWATS ARE
DROPPING A BIT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT...BUT PLENTY OF LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. ALSO...WARM RAIN PROCESSES ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION. DO NOT FEEL THE THREAT IS
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRENT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME
SINCE ANY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LOCALIZED AND FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
REMAINS HIGH ACROSS MOST AREAS.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE PUSH SOUTH AND WEST...CAUSING LOWER DEWPT
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE TO INFILTRATE FM THE NE. THE AXIS OF PCPN WL
BE PUSHED WWD LATER TONIGHT. WL START THE EVNG HRS W/ POPS
AREAWIDE /40-60 PCT... BUT WL BE CARVING AWAY AT THAT FM E TO W
OVERNIGHT.

FEW CHGS TO TEMPS REQD. KEPT GOING MAXT FCST LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S
ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND TO NEAR 80 IN THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH
VALLEY. IF PCPN HAS ENUF STAYING POWER...IT/LL BE TUFF TO SEE
MUCH OF A TEMP RISE. KEPT MIN-T TNGT LWR-MID 60S...AS DEWPTS WL BE
A LTL BIT SLOW TO DROP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
H5 HGTS WL BE RISING SUN AS SFC HIPRES BLDS DOWN THE COAST. AS A
RSLT...CLDS SHUD BE BREAKING APART...1ST IN THE NE...BUT EVENTUALLY
AREAWIDE. MTNS WL BE LAST. HV KEPT FCST DRY...BUT RECOGNIZE THERE
MAY BE A LINGERING MRNG SPRINKLE OR TWO IN THE APLCNS S OF W99. MOS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON MAXT /NEAR 80/...AND SEE NO REASON TO ARGUE.
DEWPTS WL BE DROPPING...AND SHUD BE IN THE UPR 50S SUN NGT. HENCE...
MON MRNG MIN-T COOLER...MID 50S TO LWR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN DOMINATE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK WITH SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY. POSITION OF UPPER FLOW LOOKS TO KEEP ANY
TROPICAL SYSTEM ACTIVITY OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC NEXT WEEK AS
WELL.

RETURN FLOW SETS IN WITH TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL FOR THURSDAY
AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CONUS. THIS DEEPENING TROUGH DRAGS A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH FRIDAY
LOOKING TO BE BACK IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S ATTM. DEEP-LAYER WIND
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION
WITH THIS COLD FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TODAY WITH MVFR CIGS FOR MOST OF THE TIME.
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.

MAY HV FLGT RESTRICTIONS AGN LT TNGT NEAR MRB/CHO. OTRW...DRIER AIR
WL BE COMING DOWN FM THE NE...WHICH SHUD MAINTAIN VFR OVNGT FOR THE
METROS.

SKIES CLEAR FROM INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE/VFR
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK PRESSURE
SURGE MAY CAUSE GUSTS NEAR SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT...BUT GUSTS HAVE
BEEN CAPPED AROUND 15 KNOTS FOR NOW SINCE THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO
NO MIXING.

HIPRES BLDS DOWN THE COAST TMRW. ELY FLOW WL CONT...BUT AT 5-10 KT
SUSTAINED /MAYBE CLSR TO 10 KT FOR THE MID BAY/OPEN WATERS/...AND
THEN DIMINISHING SUN NGT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MID
WEEK. NO FLAGS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE TIDAL ANOMALIES TO RISE TO
AROUND ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL.

THE PM TIDE TODAY IS THE LOWER OF THE TWO ASTRONOMICALLY...BUT WITH
THE FCST WATER LVL INCREASE SHOULD END UP BEING SIMILAR TO THE MRNG
TIDE...IF NOT A PINCH HIGHER. THE CONCERN COMES LATE TNGT INTO ELY
SUN MRNG...WHEN DEPARTURES OF A FOOT WL CAUSE WATER TO APPROACH
MINOR THRESHOLDS FOR SENSITIVE LOCATIONS ON THE WESTERN SHORE AND
TIDAL POTOMAC. ELY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...BJL/HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...AEB
AVIATION...BJL/AEB/HTS
MARINE...BJL/AEB/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL/HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 231407
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1007 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WESTWARD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DOWN
THE COAST...REACHING THE DELMARVA BY SUNDAY...AND REMAINING
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS LOCATED NEAR THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AND
AN EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY HAS CAUSED MOISTURE TO MOVE
IN FROM THE ATLANTIC.

THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS THE
COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES WEST INTO THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS TODAY.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW.
ALSO...THE FRONT IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW WHICH MEANS THE 850 MB
FRONT IS STILL OVERHEAD. THIS IS PROVIDING ENOUGH FORCING FOR
SHOWERS DESPITE DRIER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY FOR
THE REST OF TODAY WITH THE 850MB BOUNDARY REMAINING OVERHEAD.
THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. PWATS ARE
DROPPING A BIT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT...BUT PLENTY OF LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. ALSO...WARM RAIN PROCESSES ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION. DO NOT FEEL THE THREAT IS
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRENT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME
SINCE ANY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LOCALIZED AND FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
REMAINS HIGH ACROSS MOST AREAS.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE PUSH SOUTH AND WEST...CAUSING LOWER DEWPT
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE TO INFILTRATE FM THE NE. THE AXIS OF PCPN WL
BE PUSHED WWD LATER TONIGHT. WL START THE EVNG HRS W/ POPS
AREAWIDE /40-60 PCT... BUT WL BE CARVING AWAY AT THAT FM E TO W
OVERNIGHT.

FEW CHGS TO TEMPS REQD. KEPT GOING MAXT FCST LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S
ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND TO NEAR 80 IN THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH
VALLEY. IF PCPN HAS ENUF STAYING POWER...IT/LL BE TUFF TO SEE
MUCH OF A TEMP RISE. KEPT MIN-T TNGT LWR-MID 60S...AS DEWPTS WL BE
A LTL BIT SLOW TO DROP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
H5 HGTS WL BE RISING SUN AS SFC HIPRES BLDS DOWN THE COAST. AS A
RSLT...CLDS SHUD BE BREAKING APART...1ST IN THE NE...BUT EVENTUALLY
AREAWIDE. MTNS WL BE LAST. HV KEPT FCST DRY...BUT RECOGNIZE THERE
MAY BE A LINGERING MRNG SPRINKLE OR TWO IN THE APLCNS S OF W99. MOS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON MAXT /NEAR 80/...AND SEE NO REASON TO ARGUE.
DEWPTS WL BE DROPPING...AND SHUD BE IN THE UPR 50S SUN NGT. HENCE...
MON MRNG MIN-T COOLER...MID 50S TO LWR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN DOMINATE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK WITH SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY. POSITION OF UPPER FLOW LOOKS TO KEEP ANY
TROPICAL SYSTEM ACTIVITY OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC NEXT WEEK AS
WELL.

RETURN FLOW SETS IN WITH TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL FOR THURSDAY
AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CONUS. THIS DEEPENING TROUGH DRAGS A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH FRIDAY
LOOKING TO BE BACK IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S ATTM. DEEP-LAYER WIND
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION
WITH THIS COLD FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TODAY WITH MVFR CIGS FOR MOST OF THE TIME.
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.

MAY HV FLGT RESTRICTIONS AGN LT TNGT NEAR MRB/CHO. OTRW...DRIER AIR
WL BE COMING DOWN FM THE NE...WHICH SHUD MAINTAIN VFR OVNGT FOR THE
METROS.

SKIES CLEAR FROM INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE/VFR
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK PRESSURE
SURGE MAY CAUSE GUSTS NEAR SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT...BUT GUSTS HAVE
BEEN CAPPED AROUND 15 KNOTS FOR NOW SINCE THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO
NO MIXING.

HIPRES BLDS DOWN THE COAST TMRW. ELY FLOW WL CONT...BUT AT 5-10 KT
SUSTAINED /MAYBE CLSR TO 10 KT FOR THE MID BAY/OPEN WATERS/...AND
THEN DIMINISHING SUN NGT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MID
WEEK. NO FLAGS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE TIDAL ANOMALIES TO RISE TO
AROUND ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL.

THE PM TIDE TODAY IS THE LOWER OF THE TWO ASTRONOMICALLY...BUT WITH
THE FCST WATER LVL INCREASE SHOULD END UP BEING SIMILAR TO THE MRNG
TIDE...IF NOT A PINCH HIGHER. THE CONCERN COMES LATE TNGT INTO ELY
SUN MRNG...WHEN DEPARTURES OF A FOOT WL CAUSE WATER TO APPROACH
MINOR THRESHOLDS FOR SENSITIVE LOCATIONS ON THE WESTERN SHORE AND
TIDAL POTOMAC. ELY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...BJL/HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...AEB
AVIATION...BJL/AEB/HTS
MARINE...BJL/AEB/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL/HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 231407
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1007 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WESTWARD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DOWN
THE COAST...REACHING THE DELMARVA BY SUNDAY...AND REMAINING
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS LOCATED NEAR THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AND
AN EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY HAS CAUSED MOISTURE TO MOVE
IN FROM THE ATLANTIC.

THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS THE
COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES WEST INTO THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS TODAY.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW.
ALSO...THE FRONT IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW WHICH MEANS THE 850 MB
FRONT IS STILL OVERHEAD. THIS IS PROVIDING ENOUGH FORCING FOR
SHOWERS DESPITE DRIER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY FOR
THE REST OF TODAY WITH THE 850MB BOUNDARY REMAINING OVERHEAD.
THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. PWATS ARE
DROPPING A BIT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT...BUT PLENTY OF LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. ALSO...WARM RAIN PROCESSES ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION. DO NOT FEEL THE THREAT IS
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRENT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME
SINCE ANY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LOCALIZED AND FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
REMAINS HIGH ACROSS MOST AREAS.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE PUSH SOUTH AND WEST...CAUSING LOWER DEWPT
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE TO INFILTRATE FM THE NE. THE AXIS OF PCPN WL
BE PUSHED WWD LATER TONIGHT. WL START THE EVNG HRS W/ POPS
AREAWIDE /40-60 PCT... BUT WL BE CARVING AWAY AT THAT FM E TO W
OVERNIGHT.

FEW CHGS TO TEMPS REQD. KEPT GOING MAXT FCST LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S
ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND TO NEAR 80 IN THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH
VALLEY. IF PCPN HAS ENUF STAYING POWER...IT/LL BE TUFF TO SEE
MUCH OF A TEMP RISE. KEPT MIN-T TNGT LWR-MID 60S...AS DEWPTS WL BE
A LTL BIT SLOW TO DROP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
H5 HGTS WL BE RISING SUN AS SFC HIPRES BLDS DOWN THE COAST. AS A
RSLT...CLDS SHUD BE BREAKING APART...1ST IN THE NE...BUT EVENTUALLY
AREAWIDE. MTNS WL BE LAST. HV KEPT FCST DRY...BUT RECOGNIZE THERE
MAY BE A LINGERING MRNG SPRINKLE OR TWO IN THE APLCNS S OF W99. MOS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON MAXT /NEAR 80/...AND SEE NO REASON TO ARGUE.
DEWPTS WL BE DROPPING...AND SHUD BE IN THE UPR 50S SUN NGT. HENCE...
MON MRNG MIN-T COOLER...MID 50S TO LWR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN DOMINATE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK WITH SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY. POSITION OF UPPER FLOW LOOKS TO KEEP ANY
TROPICAL SYSTEM ACTIVITY OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC NEXT WEEK AS
WELL.

RETURN FLOW SETS IN WITH TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL FOR THURSDAY
AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CONUS. THIS DEEPENING TROUGH DRAGS A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH FRIDAY
LOOKING TO BE BACK IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S ATTM. DEEP-LAYER WIND
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION
WITH THIS COLD FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TODAY WITH MVFR CIGS FOR MOST OF THE TIME.
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.

MAY HV FLGT RESTRICTIONS AGN LT TNGT NEAR MRB/CHO. OTRW...DRIER AIR
WL BE COMING DOWN FM THE NE...WHICH SHUD MAINTAIN VFR OVNGT FOR THE
METROS.

SKIES CLEAR FROM INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE/VFR
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK PRESSURE
SURGE MAY CAUSE GUSTS NEAR SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT...BUT GUSTS HAVE
BEEN CAPPED AROUND 15 KNOTS FOR NOW SINCE THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO
NO MIXING.

HIPRES BLDS DOWN THE COAST TMRW. ELY FLOW WL CONT...BUT AT 5-10 KT
SUSTAINED /MAYBE CLSR TO 10 KT FOR THE MID BAY/OPEN WATERS/...AND
THEN DIMINISHING SUN NGT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MID
WEEK. NO FLAGS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE TIDAL ANOMALIES TO RISE TO
AROUND ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL.

THE PM TIDE TODAY IS THE LOWER OF THE TWO ASTRONOMICALLY...BUT WITH
THE FCST WATER LVL INCREASE SHOULD END UP BEING SIMILAR TO THE MRNG
TIDE...IF NOT A PINCH HIGHER. THE CONCERN COMES LATE TNGT INTO ELY
SUN MRNG...WHEN DEPARTURES OF A FOOT WL CAUSE WATER TO APPROACH
MINOR THRESHOLDS FOR SENSITIVE LOCATIONS ON THE WESTERN SHORE AND
TIDAL POTOMAC. ELY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...BJL/HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...AEB
AVIATION...BJL/AEB/HTS
MARINE...BJL/AEB/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL/HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 231407
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1007 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WESTWARD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DOWN
THE COAST...REACHING THE DELMARVA BY SUNDAY...AND REMAINING
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS LOCATED NEAR THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AND
AN EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY HAS CAUSED MOISTURE TO MOVE
IN FROM THE ATLANTIC.

THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS THE
COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES WEST INTO THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS TODAY.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW.
ALSO...THE FRONT IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW WHICH MEANS THE 850 MB
FRONT IS STILL OVERHEAD. THIS IS PROVIDING ENOUGH FORCING FOR
SHOWERS DESPITE DRIER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY FOR
THE REST OF TODAY WITH THE 850MB BOUNDARY REMAINING OVERHEAD.
THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. PWATS ARE
DROPPING A BIT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT...BUT PLENTY OF LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. ALSO...WARM RAIN PROCESSES ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION. DO NOT FEEL THE THREAT IS
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRENT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME
SINCE ANY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LOCALIZED AND FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
REMAINS HIGH ACROSS MOST AREAS.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE PUSH SOUTH AND WEST...CAUSING LOWER DEWPT
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE TO INFILTRATE FM THE NE. THE AXIS OF PCPN WL
BE PUSHED WWD LATER TONIGHT. WL START THE EVNG HRS W/ POPS
AREAWIDE /40-60 PCT... BUT WL BE CARVING AWAY AT THAT FM E TO W
OVERNIGHT.

FEW CHGS TO TEMPS REQD. KEPT GOING MAXT FCST LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S
ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND TO NEAR 80 IN THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH
VALLEY. IF PCPN HAS ENUF STAYING POWER...IT/LL BE TUFF TO SEE
MUCH OF A TEMP RISE. KEPT MIN-T TNGT LWR-MID 60S...AS DEWPTS WL BE
A LTL BIT SLOW TO DROP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
H5 HGTS WL BE RISING SUN AS SFC HIPRES BLDS DOWN THE COAST. AS A
RSLT...CLDS SHUD BE BREAKING APART...1ST IN THE NE...BUT EVENTUALLY
AREAWIDE. MTNS WL BE LAST. HV KEPT FCST DRY...BUT RECOGNIZE THERE
MAY BE A LINGERING MRNG SPRINKLE OR TWO IN THE APLCNS S OF W99. MOS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON MAXT /NEAR 80/...AND SEE NO REASON TO ARGUE.
DEWPTS WL BE DROPPING...AND SHUD BE IN THE UPR 50S SUN NGT. HENCE...
MON MRNG MIN-T COOLER...MID 50S TO LWR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN DOMINATE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK WITH SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY. POSITION OF UPPER FLOW LOOKS TO KEEP ANY
TROPICAL SYSTEM ACTIVITY OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC NEXT WEEK AS
WELL.

RETURN FLOW SETS IN WITH TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL FOR THURSDAY
AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CONUS. THIS DEEPENING TROUGH DRAGS A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH FRIDAY
LOOKING TO BE BACK IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S ATTM. DEEP-LAYER WIND
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION
WITH THIS COLD FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TODAY WITH MVFR CIGS FOR MOST OF THE TIME.
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.

MAY HV FLGT RESTRICTIONS AGN LT TNGT NEAR MRB/CHO. OTRW...DRIER AIR
WL BE COMING DOWN FM THE NE...WHICH SHUD MAINTAIN VFR OVNGT FOR THE
METROS.

SKIES CLEAR FROM INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE/VFR
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK PRESSURE
SURGE MAY CAUSE GUSTS NEAR SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT...BUT GUSTS HAVE
BEEN CAPPED AROUND 15 KNOTS FOR NOW SINCE THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO
NO MIXING.

HIPRES BLDS DOWN THE COAST TMRW. ELY FLOW WL CONT...BUT AT 5-10 KT
SUSTAINED /MAYBE CLSR TO 10 KT FOR THE MID BAY/OPEN WATERS/...AND
THEN DIMINISHING SUN NGT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MID
WEEK. NO FLAGS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE TIDAL ANOMALIES TO RISE TO
AROUND ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL.

THE PM TIDE TODAY IS THE LOWER OF THE TWO ASTRONOMICALLY...BUT WITH
THE FCST WATER LVL INCREASE SHOULD END UP BEING SIMILAR TO THE MRNG
TIDE...IF NOT A PINCH HIGHER. THE CONCERN COMES LATE TNGT INTO ELY
SUN MRNG...WHEN DEPARTURES OF A FOOT WL CAUSE WATER TO APPROACH
MINOR THRESHOLDS FOR SENSITIVE LOCATIONS ON THE WESTERN SHORE AND
TIDAL POTOMAC. ELY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...BJL/HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...AEB
AVIATION...BJL/AEB/HTS
MARINE...BJL/AEB/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL/HTS






  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPHI 231334
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
934 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH OUT OF CANADA TOWARDS OUR
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER OUR
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK BEFORE IT WEAKENS. A COLD FRONT
COULD PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THERE HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
VORTICITY IMPULSE THAT HAVE SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
NIGHT. WITHOUT MUCH FLOW ALOFT, THEY ARE SLOW TO MOVE. HOWEVER,
AS THE WEAK IMPULSE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EASTWARD THOUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FROM PHL TO THE NW ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS IMPULSE THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
DOWNWARD IN AREAS NW THAT HAVE SEEN SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND
RAISED WHERE SUNSHINE HAS COME OUT IN ABUNDANCE ACROSS SOUTHERN
DELAWARE.

THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. VERTICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DRY LATER IN THE DAY AS
THE IMPULSE APPROACHES AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER
SOUTH INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INTERACT
WITH THE SHORT WAVE TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH PW
VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES, THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY
RAIN WITH ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS REALLY NO INSTABILITY
EXPECTED TODAY, SO WE DO NOT HAVE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST,
ALTHOUGH IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE AN COUPLE OF ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKES.

FOR HIGHS, USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB
TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX WILL BE MOVING THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN AREAS
THIS EVENING, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH. MEANWHILE, PW VALUES WILL BE DROPPING OFF QUITE SHARPLY AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THERE MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY IN THE
EVENING, BUT WHATEVER IS OUT THERE SHOULD DISSIPATE AND/OR MOVE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING, AND THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT SHOULD
BE RAIN FREE.

FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MANY CHANGES THROUGH MID WEEK FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
STILL EXPECTING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AS THE SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS OVER OUR REGION, AND IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A SHORT WAVE
RIDGE PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST OVER OUR REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
WITH THE COOLER AIR SETTLING IN ON SUNDAY, SHOULD START WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, BUT HAVE A STEADY WARMING TREND THROUGH MID
WEEK, ESPECIALLY AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY REMAINS THE PERIOD OF MOST INTEREST OVER
THE NEXT WEEK, BUT ALSO WITH THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY. THERE ARE
THREE FEATURES THAT WILL BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THAT
COULD HAVE BIG IMPACTS WITH OUR WEATHER IN THE LATE WEEK PERIODS.
FIRST...THE TOPICAL SYSTEM WHICH COULD DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WHILE NEARLY ALL OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE THIS SYSTEM
STAYING WELL OFF SHORE, AND THUS NOT DIRECTLY IMPACTING US, IT
COULD HELP TO WEAKEN THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, RESULTING IN AN INDIRECT IMPACT.
SECOND, THE SURFACE COLD FRONT, WHICH LONG RANGE MODELS EITHER
KEEP PUSHING BACK THE ARRIVAL IN OUR REGION, OR KEEP IT NORTH OF
US ALL TOGETHER. AT THIS POINT, IT STILL SEEMS LIKELY THAT THE
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR REGION, BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL FRIDAY
AS THE THIRD FEATURE, A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, SLIDES EAST OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALL THAT SAID, OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR
RAIN WILL COME WHEN THE FRONT ARRIVES, ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING
AND TRACK OF THE FRONT, HAVE KEPT POPS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD IN THE 20S AND 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MANY TAF SITES REMAIN VFR, A THREAT REMAINS FOR CEILINGS TO DROP
TO MVFR PARTICULARLY FOR ABE WHERE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE MOST
LIKELY. HOWEVER RECENT OBS SUPPORT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER IN THE DAY, SO HAVE INCLUDED THEM IN THE LATEST
TAF. IF ANY SHOWERS DO OCCUR, THEY COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE
CIGS/VSBYS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE EAST TO NORTHEAST 5-10 KNOTS OR LESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN, AND HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE NEW JERSEY ATLANTIC COAST. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS THE EAST
TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW INCREASES. WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20-25 KNOTS
AS WELL LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EARLY IN THE DAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. THE MODERATE
RISK MAY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...GAINES/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 231334
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
934 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH OUT OF CANADA TOWARDS OUR
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER OUR
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK BEFORE IT WEAKENS. A COLD FRONT
COULD PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THERE HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
VORTICITY IMPULSE THAT HAVE SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
NIGHT. WITHOUT MUCH FLOW ALOFT, THEY ARE SLOW TO MOVE. HOWEVER,
AS THE WEAK IMPULSE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EASTWARD THOUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FROM PHL TO THE NW ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS IMPULSE THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
DOWNWARD IN AREAS NW THAT HAVE SEEN SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND
RAISED WHERE SUNSHINE HAS COME OUT IN ABUNDANCE ACROSS SOUTHERN
DELAWARE.

THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. VERTICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DRY LATER IN THE DAY AS
THE IMPULSE APPROACHES AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER
SOUTH INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INTERACT
WITH THE SHORT WAVE TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH PW
VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES, THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY
RAIN WITH ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS REALLY NO INSTABILITY
EXPECTED TODAY, SO WE DO NOT HAVE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST,
ALTHOUGH IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE AN COUPLE OF ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKES.

FOR HIGHS, USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB
TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX WILL BE MOVING THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN AREAS
THIS EVENING, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH. MEANWHILE, PW VALUES WILL BE DROPPING OFF QUITE SHARPLY AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THERE MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY IN THE
EVENING, BUT WHATEVER IS OUT THERE SHOULD DISSIPATE AND/OR MOVE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING, AND THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT SHOULD
BE RAIN FREE.

FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MANY CHANGES THROUGH MID WEEK FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
STILL EXPECTING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AS THE SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS OVER OUR REGION, AND IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A SHORT WAVE
RIDGE PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST OVER OUR REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
WITH THE COOLER AIR SETTLING IN ON SUNDAY, SHOULD START WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, BUT HAVE A STEADY WARMING TREND THROUGH MID
WEEK, ESPECIALLY AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY REMAINS THE PERIOD OF MOST INTEREST OVER
THE NEXT WEEK, BUT ALSO WITH THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY. THERE ARE
THREE FEATURES THAT WILL BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THAT
COULD HAVE BIG IMPACTS WITH OUR WEATHER IN THE LATE WEEK PERIODS.
FIRST...THE TOPICAL SYSTEM WHICH COULD DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WHILE NEARLY ALL OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE THIS SYSTEM
STAYING WELL OFF SHORE, AND THUS NOT DIRECTLY IMPACTING US, IT
COULD HELP TO WEAKEN THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, RESULTING IN AN INDIRECT IMPACT.
SECOND, THE SURFACE COLD FRONT, WHICH LONG RANGE MODELS EITHER
KEEP PUSHING BACK THE ARRIVAL IN OUR REGION, OR KEEP IT NORTH OF
US ALL TOGETHER. AT THIS POINT, IT STILL SEEMS LIKELY THAT THE
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR REGION, BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL FRIDAY
AS THE THIRD FEATURE, A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, SLIDES EAST OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALL THAT SAID, OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR
RAIN WILL COME WHEN THE FRONT ARRIVES, ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING
AND TRACK OF THE FRONT, HAVE KEPT POPS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD IN THE 20S AND 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MANY TAF SITES REMAIN VFR, A THREAT REMAINS FOR CEILINGS TO DROP
TO MVFR PARTICULARLY FOR ABE WHERE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE MOST
LIKELY. HOWEVER RECENT OBS SUPPORT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER IN THE DAY, SO HAVE INCLUDED THEM IN THE LATEST
TAF. IF ANY SHOWERS DO OCCUR, THEY COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE
CIGS/VSBYS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE EAST TO NORTHEAST 5-10 KNOTS OR LESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN, AND HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE NEW JERSEY ATLANTIC COAST. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS THE EAST
TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW INCREASES. WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20-25 KNOTS
AS WELL LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EARLY IN THE DAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. THE MODERATE
RISK MAY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...GAINES/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...





  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231147 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
747 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LESS COMMON AS THE WEEKEND
GOES ON...WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO THE NEW
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SPECIAL WX STMT FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG WAS ISSUED THRU 14Z GIVEN
CURRENT CONDS. PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

RECENT RAINFALL FROM THE PAST DAY OR SO COMBINED WITH A VERY
HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE HAS ALLOWED FOR WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT
BEHIND THESE SHOWERS. SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS LIKELY...HOWEVER
COVERAGE SEEMS AS THOUGH IT WILL FAIL TO BE SUFFICIENT TO
NECESSITATE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

THIS AFTERNOON...THE UPPER FLOW SLOWLY BECOMES MORE LONGITUDINAL
AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A SWEEPING
TROUGH DIGS OFF SHORE THE NORTHEAST. WITH RISING HEIGHTS TO OUR
WEST...MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
SLOWLY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY BRING DOWN THE
CHANCES OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TO EAST AS
THE VERTICAL EXTENT OF INSTABILITY SEEMS INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO BE
CUT OFF BY WARM AIR ALOFT. AS SUCH...THE BEST CHANCES OF
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
OVER THE RIDGES...WHILE POINTS TO THE WEST IN OHIO HAVE A FAR
LOWER RISK OF A SHOWER.

THE UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH THE JET AXIS SHIFTING TO THE EAST OF THE REGION.
THIS SHOULD END THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...BUT KEEP HUMID AIR IN PLACE. ONCE AGAIN...AREAS OF FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A RESULT. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY FILLS IN BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER TROF SUN
LEADING TO A DRYING TREND FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. MODELS HAVE
CONTINUED TO PULL MOISTURE OUT FASTER WITH EACH NEW RUN. IT NOW APPEARS
THAT IF ANY LINGERING SHOWERS EXIST WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING SUN
AFTERNOON...THEY WILL STAY PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF SERN WV AND OUT OF OUR AREA.

MONDAY...WITH THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA AND DRY
AIR IN PLACE...CLOUD DEVELOP SHOULD EVEN BE LIMITED. ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS CLOSE TO OR ABOVE NORMALS. BY LATE
MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS TILTS WEST TO EAST ALLOWING A LITTLE
MORE MOISTURE TO STREAM ACROSS THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. SOME
CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP INTO MON NIGHT/TUES...BUT THE DRY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK KEEPING THE TREND OF WARM AND
DRY WEATHER IN PLACE. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE WITH THE
DETAILS SURROUNDING A POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE ATLANTIC.
WHILE THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE NO DIRECT IMPACT TO OUR IMMEDIATE
AREA...THE BROAD SCALE PATTERN INCLUDING TIMING THE BREAKDOWN OF THE
RIDGE WILL BE IMPACTED. A COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWER CHANCES.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OCNL LIFR FOG/CIGS NOTED AT SOME TERMINALS WITH MVFR/IFR AT
OTHERS...BOTH RESULTING FROM STAGNANT SATURATED AMS IN THE RGN.
FOG XPCD TO LIFT BY 14Z...WITH BKN CIGS BTWN 1-3KFT XPCD UNTIL
THIS AFTN. AFTER 17Z OR SO...VFR CONDS SHOULD PERSIST.

IFR/LIFR FOG/CIGS COULD RETURN LATE TNGT AS AMS NOT XPCD TO BE
DISPLACED.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIPRES WILL BUILD INTO THE RGN SUN-TUE. MODEST DRYING AT SFC MAY
PRECLUDE FOG DVLPMT THRU AT LEAST TUE. SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL BCM
INCRGLY LKLY WED AFTN AND EVE...WITH ATTENDANT VSBY AND CIG
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KRAMAR







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231147 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
747 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LESS COMMON AS THE WEEKEND
GOES ON...WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO THE NEW
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SPECIAL WX STMT FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG WAS ISSUED THRU 14Z GIVEN
CURRENT CONDS. PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

RECENT RAINFALL FROM THE PAST DAY OR SO COMBINED WITH A VERY
HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE HAS ALLOWED FOR WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT
BEHIND THESE SHOWERS. SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS LIKELY...HOWEVER
COVERAGE SEEMS AS THOUGH IT WILL FAIL TO BE SUFFICIENT TO
NECESSITATE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

THIS AFTERNOON...THE UPPER FLOW SLOWLY BECOMES MORE LONGITUDINAL
AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A SWEEPING
TROUGH DIGS OFF SHORE THE NORTHEAST. WITH RISING HEIGHTS TO OUR
WEST...MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
SLOWLY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY BRING DOWN THE
CHANCES OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TO EAST AS
THE VERTICAL EXTENT OF INSTABILITY SEEMS INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO BE
CUT OFF BY WARM AIR ALOFT. AS SUCH...THE BEST CHANCES OF
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
OVER THE RIDGES...WHILE POINTS TO THE WEST IN OHIO HAVE A FAR
LOWER RISK OF A SHOWER.

THE UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH THE JET AXIS SHIFTING TO THE EAST OF THE REGION.
THIS SHOULD END THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...BUT KEEP HUMID AIR IN PLACE. ONCE AGAIN...AREAS OF FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A RESULT. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY FILLS IN BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER TROF SUN
LEADING TO A DRYING TREND FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. MODELS HAVE
CONTINUED TO PULL MOISTURE OUT FASTER WITH EACH NEW RUN. IT NOW APPEARS
THAT IF ANY LINGERING SHOWERS EXIST WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING SUN
AFTERNOON...THEY WILL STAY PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF SERN WV AND OUT OF OUR AREA.

MONDAY...WITH THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA AND DRY
AIR IN PLACE...CLOUD DEVELOP SHOULD EVEN BE LIMITED. ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS CLOSE TO OR ABOVE NORMALS. BY LATE
MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS TILTS WEST TO EAST ALLOWING A LITTLE
MORE MOISTURE TO STREAM ACROSS THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. SOME
CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP INTO MON NIGHT/TUES...BUT THE DRY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK KEEPING THE TREND OF WARM AND
DRY WEATHER IN PLACE. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE WITH THE
DETAILS SURROUNDING A POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE ATLANTIC.
WHILE THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE NO DIRECT IMPACT TO OUR IMMEDIATE
AREA...THE BROAD SCALE PATTERN INCLUDING TIMING THE BREAKDOWN OF THE
RIDGE WILL BE IMPACTED. A COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWER CHANCES.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OCNL LIFR FOG/CIGS NOTED AT SOME TERMINALS WITH MVFR/IFR AT
OTHERS...BOTH RESULTING FROM STAGNANT SATURATED AMS IN THE RGN.
FOG XPCD TO LIFT BY 14Z...WITH BKN CIGS BTWN 1-3KFT XPCD UNTIL
THIS AFTN. AFTER 17Z OR SO...VFR CONDS SHOULD PERSIST.

IFR/LIFR FOG/CIGS COULD RETURN LATE TNGT AS AMS NOT XPCD TO BE
DISPLACED.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIPRES WILL BUILD INTO THE RGN SUN-TUE. MODEST DRYING AT SFC MAY
PRECLUDE FOG DVLPMT THRU AT LEAST TUE. SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL BCM
INCRGLY LKLY WED AFTN AND EVE...WITH ATTENDANT VSBY AND CIG
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KRAMAR








000
FXUS61 KPHI 231057
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
657 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH OUT OF CANADA TOWARDS OUR
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER OUR
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK BEFORE IT WEAKENS. A COLD FRONT
COULD PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THERE HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
VORTICITY IMPULSE THAT HAVE SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
NIGHT. WITHOUT MUCH FLOW ALOFT, THEY ARE SLOW TO MOVE. HOWEVER,
AS THE WEAK IMPULSE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EASTWARD THOUGH THE MORNING
HOURS.

THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY
AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
VERTICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DRY LATER IN THE DAY AS THE
IMPULSE APPROACHES AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER
SOUTH INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INTERACT
WITH THE SHORT WAVE TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH PW
VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES, THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY
RAIN WITH ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS REALLY NO INSTABILITY
EXPECTED TODAY, SO WE DO NOT HAVE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST,
ALTHOUGH IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE AN COUPLE OF ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKES.

FOR HIGHS, USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB
TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX WILL BE MOVING THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN AREAS
THIS EVENING, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH. MEANWHILE, PW VALUES WILL BE DROPPING OFF QUITE SHARPLY AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THERE MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY IN THE
EVENING, BUT WHATEVER IS OUT THERE SHOULD DISSIPATE AND/OR MOVE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING, AND THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT SHOULD
BE RAIN FREE.

FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MANY CHANGES THROUGH MID WEEK FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
STILL EXPECTING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AS THE SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS OVER OUR REGION, AND IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A SHORT WAVE
RIDGE PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST OVER OUR REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
WITH THE COOLER AIR SETTLING IN ON SUNDAY, SHOULD START WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, BUT HAVE A STEADY WARMING TREND THROUGH MID
WEEK, ESPECIALLY AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY REMAINS THE PERIOD OF MOST INTEREST OVER
THE NEXT WEEK, BUT ALSO WITH THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY. THERE ARE
THREE FEATURES THAT WILL BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THAT
COULD HAVE BIG IMPACTS WITH OUR WEATHER IN THE LATE WEEK PERIODS.
FIRST...THE TOPICAL SYSTEM WHICH COULD DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WHILE NEARLY ALL OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE THIS SYSTEM
STAYING WELL OFF SHORE, AND THUS NOT DIRECTLY IMPACTING US, IT
COULD HELP TO WEAKEN THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, RESULTING IN AN INDIRECT IMPACT.
SECOND, THE SURFACE COLD FRONT, WHICH LONG RANGE MODELS EITHER
KEEP PUSHING BACK THE ARRIVAL IN OUR REGION, OR KEEP IT NORTH OF
US ALL TOGETHER. AT THIS POINT, IT STILL SEEMS LIKELY THAT THE
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR REGION, BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL FRIDAY
AS THE THIRD FEATURE, A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, SLIDES EAST OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALL THAT SAID, OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR
RAIN WILL COME WHEN THE FRONT ARRIVES, ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING
AND TRACK OF THE FRONT, HAVE KEPT POPS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD IN THE 20S AND 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MANY TAF SITES REMAIN VFR AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, HOWEVER, WE
STILL EXPECT ALL CIGS TO DROP TO MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING
AS THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND THE AREA.
ONCE THESE LOWER CIGS DEVELOP, WE EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN THROUGH
THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS, BEFORE AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR THE
AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA, AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE
DAY, SO HAVE INCLUDED THEM IN THE LATEST TAF. IF ANY SHOWERS DO
OCCUR, THEY COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE EAST TO NORTHEAST 5-10 KNOTS OR LESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN, AND HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE NEW JERSEY ATLANTIC COAST. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS THE EAST
TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW INCREASES. WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20-25 KNOTS
AS WELL LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EARLY IN THE DAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. THE MODERATE
RISK MAY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...ROBERTSON





000
FXUS61 KPHI 231057
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
657 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH OUT OF CANADA TOWARDS OUR
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER OUR
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK BEFORE IT WEAKENS. A COLD FRONT
COULD PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THERE HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
VORTICITY IMPULSE THAT HAVE SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
NIGHT. WITHOUT MUCH FLOW ALOFT, THEY ARE SLOW TO MOVE. HOWEVER,
AS THE WEAK IMPULSE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EASTWARD THOUGH THE MORNING
HOURS.

THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY
AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
VERTICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DRY LATER IN THE DAY AS THE
IMPULSE APPROACHES AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER
SOUTH INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INTERACT
WITH THE SHORT WAVE TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH PW
VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES, THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY
RAIN WITH ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS REALLY NO INSTABILITY
EXPECTED TODAY, SO WE DO NOT HAVE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST,
ALTHOUGH IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE AN COUPLE OF ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKES.

FOR HIGHS, USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB
TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX WILL BE MOVING THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN AREAS
THIS EVENING, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH. MEANWHILE, PW VALUES WILL BE DROPPING OFF QUITE SHARPLY AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THERE MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY IN THE
EVENING, BUT WHATEVER IS OUT THERE SHOULD DISSIPATE AND/OR MOVE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING, AND THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT SHOULD
BE RAIN FREE.

FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MANY CHANGES THROUGH MID WEEK FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
STILL EXPECTING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AS THE SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS OVER OUR REGION, AND IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A SHORT WAVE
RIDGE PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST OVER OUR REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
WITH THE COOLER AIR SETTLING IN ON SUNDAY, SHOULD START WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, BUT HAVE A STEADY WARMING TREND THROUGH MID
WEEK, ESPECIALLY AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY REMAINS THE PERIOD OF MOST INTEREST OVER
THE NEXT WEEK, BUT ALSO WITH THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY. THERE ARE
THREE FEATURES THAT WILL BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THAT
COULD HAVE BIG IMPACTS WITH OUR WEATHER IN THE LATE WEEK PERIODS.
FIRST...THE TOPICAL SYSTEM WHICH COULD DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WHILE NEARLY ALL OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE THIS SYSTEM
STAYING WELL OFF SHORE, AND THUS NOT DIRECTLY IMPACTING US, IT
COULD HELP TO WEAKEN THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, RESULTING IN AN INDIRECT IMPACT.
SECOND, THE SURFACE COLD FRONT, WHICH LONG RANGE MODELS EITHER
KEEP PUSHING BACK THE ARRIVAL IN OUR REGION, OR KEEP IT NORTH OF
US ALL TOGETHER. AT THIS POINT, IT STILL SEEMS LIKELY THAT THE
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR REGION, BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL FRIDAY
AS THE THIRD FEATURE, A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, SLIDES EAST OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALL THAT SAID, OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR
RAIN WILL COME WHEN THE FRONT ARRIVES, ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING
AND TRACK OF THE FRONT, HAVE KEPT POPS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD IN THE 20S AND 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MANY TAF SITES REMAIN VFR AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, HOWEVER, WE
STILL EXPECT ALL CIGS TO DROP TO MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING
AS THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND THE AREA.
ONCE THESE LOWER CIGS DEVELOP, WE EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN THROUGH
THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS, BEFORE AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR THE
AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA, AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE
DAY, SO HAVE INCLUDED THEM IN THE LATEST TAF. IF ANY SHOWERS DO
OCCUR, THEY COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE EAST TO NORTHEAST 5-10 KNOTS OR LESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN, AND HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE NEW JERSEY ATLANTIC COAST. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS THE EAST
TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW INCREASES. WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20-25 KNOTS
AS WELL LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EARLY IN THE DAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. THE MODERATE
RISK MAY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...ROBERTSON




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 231036
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
636 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST
OF THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND SLOWLY BUILDS
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE SETTLING OVER THE
PIEDMONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS HI PRES CENTERED OVR NEW ENGLAND AND A
DISORGANIZED PRES FIELD OVR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION COINCIDING
WITH A WEAK STALLED FRNTAL BNDRY. ALOFT...NW FLOW CONTINUES WITH
AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVR THE E-CNTRL CONUS. THE SFC FRNT
WILL SAG S INTO THE CAROLINAS TDA. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY WITH SCT
SHRAS/TSTMS...ESPECIALLY OVR THE PIEDMONT CLOSER TO THE FRNT. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WILL BE CONFINED AWAY FROM THE CSTS DUE TO
NE FLOW WITH HI PRES BLDG OVR NEW ENGLAND. NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR
WX BUT HEAVY RAIN IS PSBL IN SOME AREAS. AFTN HI TEMPS WILL RANGE
FM THE UPR 70S TO NEAR 80 OVR THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE LO-MID 80S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE HIGH SURGES SSW OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SETTLING OVER THE PIEDMONT BY MONDAY. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A DRYING TREND ALONG WITH A NE WIND THAT SHOULD BE RATHER
BREEZY ALONG THE COAST. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

HIGHS WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH MONDAY (AROUND -1
ST DEV). HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
MAINLY LOW/MID 60S EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL
MAINTAIN A COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED BEFORE THE
RIDGE AXES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT ALOFT BEGIN TO SHIFT JUST EAST OF
THE FA...AND MOVING OFFSHORE BY THU. THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY DRY
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS DUE TO WELL-ESTABLISHED
SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE...HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE FAR SE VA/NE NC COAST ON WED DUE TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL SYSTEM
PASSING WELL TO THE EAST. HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW
NORMAL FROM MON NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT (LOWS IN THE 60S...UPPER
50S FAR WRN COUNTIES/HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S...MID-UPPER 70S
BEACHES) AND THEN REBOUND TWD SEASONAL NORMALS THU/THU NIGHT
(HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S...UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S BEACHES/LOWS IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S...AROUND 70 BEACHES).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KEPT A TEMPO GROUP FOR -RA NEXT FEW HOURS AT KRIC AS THE BATCH OF
RAIN CROSSES THE PIEDMONT. OTW...HIGH PRS TO THE NE ALLOWING FOR
DRYER AIR ALONG THE COAST WITH MAINLY VFR CNDTNS THIS AM. EXPECT
VFR CIGS TODAY WITH TSCTNS SHOWING PLNTY OF MOISTURE ARND THE AREA
FOR A BKN SC DECK (3-4K FT) THRU MUCH OF THE FCST PRD WITH MVFR
CIGS RETURNING AFTER 00Z. SCT CONVECTION PSBL AFTER 18Z...BUT
TIMING OF ANY SHWR/TSTRM PROBLEMATIC AT THIS POINT SO KEPT PCPN
OUT OF FCST AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PSBL DUE TO STRATUS/FOG SUN MORNING.
OTW...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEGINNING SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND. DESPITE THE ONGOING E-NE WINDS...LATEST
GUIDANCE NOT AS BULLISH WITH THE WINDS THUS CREATING SOME DOUBT
WHEN SCA CONDITIONS WILL START. TOUGHEST CALL WILL BE SOUTHERN CHES
BAY WHERE ONLY MINIMAL CONDITIONS WILL BE MEET. MOUTH OF THE BAY
WILL HAVE AN EARLIER START AND LATER FINISH TIME. SEAS (ESPECIALLY
OUT NEAR 20 NM) ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 5 FEET THEN REMAIN THERE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO EXTENDED THE SCA HEADLINES OVR THE
WATERS THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR CONTINUITY SAKE...WENT AHEAD AND
HOISTED SCA HEADLINES FOR CURRITUCK SND SUN AND SUN NIGHT AS SCNDRY
SURGE WILL LIKELY KEEP WINDS BTWN 15-20 KTS.

FORECAST NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF A DEVELOPING
(TROPICAL) LOW PROGGED TO TRACK NE BUT REMAIN EAST OF GULF STREAM
WALL. SWELL FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT THE MID ATLNTC
BEACH AREAS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES PROGGED TO BUILD TO ABOUT 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THE NE FLOW CONTINUES. DESPITE THE PERSISTANT ONSHORE FLOW...LEVELS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOUT 1/2 FOOT BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

WENT WITH A MODERATE RIP CURRENT THREAT TODAY GIVEN NEARSHORE WAVES
OF 2-3 FT AND A INCREASING NE WIND FLOW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ632.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAS
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230955
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
555 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LESS COMMON AS THE WEEKEND
GOES ON...WITH WARM AND STILL HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO
THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL WIND DOWN BEFORE SUNRISE IN TUCKER COUNTY
WEST VIRGINIA...WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA STARTS THE DAY RAIN-
FREE. RECENT RAINFALL FROM THE PAST DAY OR SO COMBINED WITH A
VERY HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE HAVE ALLOWED FOR WIDESPREAD FOG
DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THESE SHOWERS. SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS
LIKELY...HOWEVER COVERAGE SEEMS AS THOUGH IT WILL FAIL TO BE
SUFFICIENT TO NECESSITATE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

THIS AFTERNOON...THE UPPER FLOW SLOWLY BECOMES MORE LONGITUDINAL
AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A SWEEPING
TROUGH DIGS OFF SHORE THE NORTHEAST. WITH RISING HEIGHTS TO OUR
WEST...MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
SLOWLY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY BRING DOWN THE
CHANCES OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TO EAST AS
THE VERTICAL EXTENT OF INSTABILITY SEEMS INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO BE
CUT OFF BY WARM AIR ALOFT. AS SUCH...THE BEST CHANCES OF
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
OVER THE RIDGES...WHILE POINTS TO THE WEST IN OHIO HAVE A FAR
LOWER RISK OF A SHOWER.

THE UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH THE JET AXIS SHIFTING TO THE EAST OF THE REGION.
THIS SHOULD END THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...BUT KEEP HUMID AIR IN PLACE. ONCE AGAIN...AREAS OF FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A RESULT. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY FILLS IN BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER TROF SUN
LEADING TO A DRYING TREND FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. MODELS HAVE
CONTINUED TO PULL MOISTURE OUT FASTER WITH EACH NEW RUN. IT NOW APPEARS
THAT IF ANY LINGERING SHOWERS EXIST WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING SUN
AFTERNOON...THEY WILL STAY PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF SERN WV AND OUT OF OUR AREA.

MONDAY...WITH THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA AND DRY
AIR IN PLACE...CLOUD DEVELOP SHOULD EVEN BE LIMITED. ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS CLOSE TO OR ABOVE NORMALS. BY LATE
MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS TILTS WEST TO EAST ALLOWING A LITTLE
MORE MOISTURE TO STREAM ACROSS THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. SOME
CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP INTO MON NIGHT/TUES...BUT THE DRY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK KEEPING THE TREND OF WARM AND
DRY WEATHER IN PLACE. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE WITH THE
DETAILS SURROUNDING A POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE ATLANTIC.
WHILE THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE NO DIRECT IMPACT TO OUR IMMEDIATE
AREA...THE BROAD SCALE PATTERN INCLUDING TIMING THE BREAKDOWN OF THE
RIDGE WILL BE IMPACTED. A COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWER CHANCES.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR AND IFR FOG IS COMMON AT ALL SITES EARLY THIS MORNING. IT
SHOULD SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH MID-MORNING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS GENERALLY TO THE EAST OF MOST SITES. MVFR FOG
IS LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ERLY SUN MRNG FOG RSTRNS ARE PSBL.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230925
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
525 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST
OF THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND SLOWLY BUILDS
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE SETTLING OVER THE
PIEDMONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS HI PRES CENTERED OVR NEW ENGLAND AND A
DISORGANIZED PRES FIELD OVR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION COINCIDING
WITH A WEAK STALLED FRNTAL BNDRY. ALOFT...NW FLOW CONTINUES WITH
AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVR THE E-CNTRL CONUS. THE SFC FRNT
WILL SAG S INTO THE CAROLINAS TDA. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY WITH SCT
SHRAS/TSTMS...ESPECIALLY OVR THE PIEDMONT CLOSER TO THE FRNT. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WILL BE CONFINED AWAY FROM THE CSTS DUE TO
NE FLOW WITH HI PRES BLDG OVR NEW ENGLAND. NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR
WX BUT HEAVY RAIN IS PSBL IN SOME AREAS. AFTN HI TEMPS WILL RANGE
FM THE UPR 70S TO NEAR 80 OVR THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE LO-MID 80S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE HIGH SURGES SSW OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SETTLING OVER THE PIEDMONT BY MONDAY. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A DRYING TREND ALONG WITH A NE WIND THAT SHOULD BE RATHER
BREEZY ALONG THE COAST. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

HIGHS WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH MONDAY (AROUND -1
ST DEV). HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
MAINLY LOW/MID 60S EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL
MAINTAIN A COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED BEFORE THE
RIDGE AXES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT ALOFT BEGIN TO SHIFT JUST EAST OF
THE FA...AND MOVING OFFSHORE BY THU. THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY DRY
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS DUE TO WELL-ESTABLISHED
SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE...HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE FAR SE VA/NE NC COAST ON WED DUE TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL SYSTEM
PASSING WELL TO THE EAST. HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW
NORMAL FROM MON NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT (LOWS IN THE 60S...UPPER
50S FAR WRN COUNTIES/HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S...MID-UPPER 70S
BEACHES) AND THEN REBOUND TWD SEASONAL NORMALS THU/THU NIGHT
(HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S...UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S BEACHES/LOWS IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S...AROUND 70 BEACHES).

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE FA WITH HIGH PRS
BUILDING SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND. LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWING NEXT
BAND OF SHWRS MOVG SE ALONG I64 CORRIDOR WITH LATEST SHORT RANGE
MODELS INDCTG THESE MAKING IT INTO CNTRL VA NEXT SVRL HRS. THUS
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP IN RIC ERLY THIS MORNING.

NEXT IMPULSE PROGGED TO TRACK SE AFTER 12Z AFFECTING RIC / SBY
AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. GOOD CONFIDENCE BTWN THE MODELS
OF THIS OCCURRING SO INCLUDED A FEW HRS OF (MVFR) RAIN AT THOSE
SITES. CHALLENGING PART OF FCST WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT CIGS DROP
BELOW 1K FT THRU 12Z DUE TO E-NE FLOW OFF THE OCEAN. FOG NOT THAT
MUCH OF A CHALLENGE AS CIGS ARE.

CIGS BARELY RISE INTO VFR RANGE AS TSCTNS SHOW PLNTY OF MOISTUTE
ARND THE AREA FOR A BKN SC DECK (3-4K FT) THRU MUCH OF THE FCST
PRD WITH MVFR CIGS RETURNING AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PSBL DUE TO STRATUS/FOG SUN MORNING.
OTW...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEGINNING SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND. DESPITE THE ONGOING E-NE WINDS...LATEST
GUIDANCE NOT AS BULLISH WITH THE WINDS THUS CREATING SOME DOUBT
WHEN SCA CONDITIONS WILL START. TOUGHEST CALL WILL BE SOUTHERN CHES
BAY WHERE ONLY MINIMAL CONDITIONS WILL BE MEET. MOUTH OF THE BAY
WILL HAVE AN EARLIER START AND LATER FINISH TIME. SEAS (ESPECIALLY
OUT NEAR 20 NM) ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 5 FEET THEN REMAIN THERE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO EXTENDED THE SCA HEADLINES OVR THE
WATERS THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR CONTINUITY SAKE...WENT AHEAD AND
HOISTED SCA HEADLINES FOR CURRITUCK SND SUN AND SUN NIGHT AS SCNDRY
SURGE WILL LIKELY KEEP WINDS BTWN 15-20 KTS.

FORECAST NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF A DEVELOPING
(TROPICAL) LOW PROGGED TO TRACK NE BUT REMAIN EAST OF GULF STREAM
WALL. SWELL FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT THE MID ATLNTC
BEACH AREAS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES PROGGED TO BUILD TO ABOUT 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THE NE FLOW CONTINUES. DESPITE THE PERSISTANT ONSHORE FLOW...LEVELS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOUT 1/2 FOOT BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

WENT WITH A MODERATE RIP CURRENT THREAT TODAY GIVEN NEARSHORE WAVES
OF 2-3 FT AND A INCREASING NE WIND FLOW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ632.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAS
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MPR






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230925
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
525 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST
OF THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND SLOWLY BUILDS
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE SETTLING OVER THE
PIEDMONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS HI PRES CENTERED OVR NEW ENGLAND AND A
DISORGANIZED PRES FIELD OVR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION COINCIDING
WITH A WEAK STALLED FRNTAL BNDRY. ALOFT...NW FLOW CONTINUES WITH
AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVR THE E-CNTRL CONUS. THE SFC FRNT
WILL SAG S INTO THE CAROLINAS TDA. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY WITH SCT
SHRAS/TSTMS...ESPECIALLY OVR THE PIEDMONT CLOSER TO THE FRNT. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WILL BE CONFINED AWAY FROM THE CSTS DUE TO
NE FLOW WITH HI PRES BLDG OVR NEW ENGLAND. NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR
WX BUT HEAVY RAIN IS PSBL IN SOME AREAS. AFTN HI TEMPS WILL RANGE
FM THE UPR 70S TO NEAR 80 OVR THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE LO-MID 80S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE HIGH SURGES SSW OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SETTLING OVER THE PIEDMONT BY MONDAY. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A DRYING TREND ALONG WITH A NE WIND THAT SHOULD BE RATHER
BREEZY ALONG THE COAST. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

HIGHS WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH MONDAY (AROUND -1
ST DEV). HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
MAINLY LOW/MID 60S EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL
MAINTAIN A COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED BEFORE THE
RIDGE AXES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT ALOFT BEGIN TO SHIFT JUST EAST OF
THE FA...AND MOVING OFFSHORE BY THU. THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY DRY
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS DUE TO WELL-ESTABLISHED
SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE...HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE FAR SE VA/NE NC COAST ON WED DUE TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL SYSTEM
PASSING WELL TO THE EAST. HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW
NORMAL FROM MON NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT (LOWS IN THE 60S...UPPER
50S FAR WRN COUNTIES/HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S...MID-UPPER 70S
BEACHES) AND THEN REBOUND TWD SEASONAL NORMALS THU/THU NIGHT
(HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S...UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S BEACHES/LOWS IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S...AROUND 70 BEACHES).

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE FA WITH HIGH PRS
BUILDING SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND. LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWING NEXT
BAND OF SHWRS MOVG SE ALONG I64 CORRIDOR WITH LATEST SHORT RANGE
MODELS INDCTG THESE MAKING IT INTO CNTRL VA NEXT SVRL HRS. THUS
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP IN RIC ERLY THIS MORNING.

NEXT IMPULSE PROGGED TO TRACK SE AFTER 12Z AFFECTING RIC / SBY
AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. GOOD CONFIDENCE BTWN THE MODELS
OF THIS OCCURRING SO INCLUDED A FEW HRS OF (MVFR) RAIN AT THOSE
SITES. CHALLENGING PART OF FCST WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT CIGS DROP
BELOW 1K FT THRU 12Z DUE TO E-NE FLOW OFF THE OCEAN. FOG NOT THAT
MUCH OF A CHALLENGE AS CIGS ARE.

CIGS BARELY RISE INTO VFR RANGE AS TSCTNS SHOW PLNTY OF MOISTUTE
ARND THE AREA FOR A BKN SC DECK (3-4K FT) THRU MUCH OF THE FCST
PRD WITH MVFR CIGS RETURNING AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PSBL DUE TO STRATUS/FOG SUN MORNING.
OTW...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEGINNING SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND. DESPITE THE ONGOING E-NE WINDS...LATEST
GUIDANCE NOT AS BULLISH WITH THE WINDS THUS CREATING SOME DOUBT
WHEN SCA CONDITIONS WILL START. TOUGHEST CALL WILL BE SOUTHERN CHES
BAY WHERE ONLY MINIMAL CONDITIONS WILL BE MEET. MOUTH OF THE BAY
WILL HAVE AN EARLIER START AND LATER FINISH TIME. SEAS (ESPECIALLY
OUT NEAR 20 NM) ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 5 FEET THEN REMAIN THERE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO EXTENDED THE SCA HEADLINES OVR THE
WATERS THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR CONTINUITY SAKE...WENT AHEAD AND
HOISTED SCA HEADLINES FOR CURRITUCK SND SUN AND SUN NIGHT AS SCNDRY
SURGE WILL LIKELY KEEP WINDS BTWN 15-20 KTS.

FORECAST NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF A DEVELOPING
(TROPICAL) LOW PROGGED TO TRACK NE BUT REMAIN EAST OF GULF STREAM
WALL. SWELL FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT THE MID ATLNTC
BEACH AREAS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES PROGGED TO BUILD TO ABOUT 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THE NE FLOW CONTINUES. DESPITE THE PERSISTANT ONSHORE FLOW...LEVELS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOUT 1/2 FOOT BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

WENT WITH A MODERATE RIP CURRENT THREAT TODAY GIVEN NEARSHORE WAVES
OF 2-3 FT AND A INCREASING NE WIND FLOW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ632.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAS
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MPR







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230839
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
439 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LESS COMMON AS THE WEEKEND
GOES ON...WITH WARM AND STILL HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO
THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE DOWN THE
RIDGELINES IN THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND WESTERN
MARYLAND THIS MORNING BEFORE ENDING. RECENT RAINFALL FROM THE PAST
DAY OR SO COMBINED WITH A VERY HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE HAVE
ALLOWED FOR WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THESE SHOWERS. SOME
LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS LIKELY...HOWEVER COVERAGE SEEMS AS THOUGH IT
WILL FAIL TO BE SUFFICIENT TO NECESSITATE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

THIS AFTERNOON...THE UPPER FLOW SLOWLY BECOMES MORE LONGITUDINAL
AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A SWEEPING
TROUGH DIGS OFF SHORE THE NORTHEAST. WITH RISING HEIGHTS TO OUR
WEST...MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
SLOWLY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY BRING DOWN THE
CHANCES OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TO EAST AS
THE VERTICAL EXTENT OF INSTABILITY SEEMS INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO BE
CUT OFF BY WARM AIR ALOFT. AS SUCH...THE BEST CHANCES OF
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
OVER THE RIDGES...WHILE POINTS TO THE WEST IN OHIO HAVE A FAR
LOWER RISK OF A SHOWER.

THE UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH THE JET AXIS SHIFTING TO THE EAST OF THE REGION.
THIS SHOULD END THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...BUT KEEP HUMID AIR IN PLACE. ONCE AGAIN...AREAS OF FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A RESULT. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY FILLS IN BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER TROF SUN
LEADING TO A DRYING TREND FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. MODELS HAVE
CONTINUED TO PULL MOISTURE OUT FASTER WITH EACH NEW RUN. IT NOW APPEARS
THAT IF ANY LINGERING SHOWERS EXIST WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING SUN
AFTERNOON...THEY WILL STAY PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF SERN WV AND OUT OF OUR AREA.

MONDAY...WITH THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA AND DRY
AIR IN PLACE...CLOUD DEVELOP SHOULD EVEN BE LIMITED. ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS CLOSE TO OR ABOVE NORMALS. BY LATE
MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS TILTS WEST TO EAST ALLOWING A LITTLE
MORE MOISTURE TO STREAM ACROSS THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. SOME
CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP INTO MON NIGHT/TUES...BUT THE DRY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK KEEPING THE TREND OF WARM AND
DRY WEATHER IN PLACE. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE WITH THE
DETAILS SURROUNDING A POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE ATLANTIC.
WHILE THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE NO DIRECT IMPACT TO OUR IMMEDIATE
AREA...THE BROAD SCALE PATTERN INCLUDING TIMING THE BREAKDOWN OF THE
RIDGE WILL BE IMPACTED. A COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWER CHANCES.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR AND IFR FOG IS COMMON AT ALL SITES EARLY THIS MORNING. IT
SHOULD SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH MID-MORNING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS GENERALLY TO THE EAST OF MOST SITES. MVFR FOG
IS LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ERLY SUN MRNG FOG RSTRNS ARE PSBL.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230839
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
439 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LESS COMMON AS THE WEEKEND
GOES ON...WITH WARM AND STILL HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO
THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE DOWN THE
RIDGELINES IN THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND WESTERN
MARYLAND THIS MORNING BEFORE ENDING. RECENT RAINFALL FROM THE PAST
DAY OR SO COMBINED WITH A VERY HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE HAVE
ALLOWED FOR WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THESE SHOWERS. SOME
LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS LIKELY...HOWEVER COVERAGE SEEMS AS THOUGH IT
WILL FAIL TO BE SUFFICIENT TO NECESSITATE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

THIS AFTERNOON...THE UPPER FLOW SLOWLY BECOMES MORE LONGITUDINAL
AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A SWEEPING
TROUGH DIGS OFF SHORE THE NORTHEAST. WITH RISING HEIGHTS TO OUR
WEST...MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
SLOWLY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY BRING DOWN THE
CHANCES OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TO EAST AS
THE VERTICAL EXTENT OF INSTABILITY SEEMS INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO BE
CUT OFF BY WARM AIR ALOFT. AS SUCH...THE BEST CHANCES OF
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
OVER THE RIDGES...WHILE POINTS TO THE WEST IN OHIO HAVE A FAR
LOWER RISK OF A SHOWER.

THE UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH THE JET AXIS SHIFTING TO THE EAST OF THE REGION.
THIS SHOULD END THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...BUT KEEP HUMID AIR IN PLACE. ONCE AGAIN...AREAS OF FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A RESULT. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY FILLS IN BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER TROF SUN
LEADING TO A DRYING TREND FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. MODELS HAVE
CONTINUED TO PULL MOISTURE OUT FASTER WITH EACH NEW RUN. IT NOW APPEARS
THAT IF ANY LINGERING SHOWERS EXIST WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING SUN
AFTERNOON...THEY WILL STAY PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF SERN WV AND OUT OF OUR AREA.

MONDAY...WITH THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA AND DRY
AIR IN PLACE...CLOUD DEVELOP SHOULD EVEN BE LIMITED. ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS CLOSE TO OR ABOVE NORMALS. BY LATE
MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS TILTS WEST TO EAST ALLOWING A LITTLE
MORE MOISTURE TO STREAM ACROSS THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. SOME
CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP INTO MON NIGHT/TUES...BUT THE DRY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK KEEPING THE TREND OF WARM AND
DRY WEATHER IN PLACE. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE WITH THE
DETAILS SURROUNDING A POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE ATLANTIC.
WHILE THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE NO DIRECT IMPACT TO OUR IMMEDIATE
AREA...THE BROAD SCALE PATTERN INCLUDING TIMING THE BREAKDOWN OF THE
RIDGE WILL BE IMPACTED. A COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWER CHANCES.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR AND IFR FOG IS COMMON AT ALL SITES EARLY THIS MORNING. IT
SHOULD SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH MID-MORNING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS GENERALLY TO THE EAST OF MOST SITES. MVFR FOG
IS LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ERLY SUN MRNG FOG RSTRNS ARE PSBL.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230751
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
351 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST
OF THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND SLOWLY BUILDS
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE SETTLING OVER THE
PIEDMONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS HI PRES CENTERED OVR NEW ENGLAND AND A
DISORGANIZED PRES FIELD OVR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION COINCIDING
WITH A WEAK STALLED FRNTAL BNDRY. ALOFT...NW FLOW CONTINUES WITH
AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVR THE E-CNTRL CONUS. THE SFC FRNT
WILL SAG S INTO THE CAROLINAS TDA. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY WITH SCT
SHRAS/TSTMS...ESPECIALLY OVR THE PIEDMONT CLOSER TO THE FRNT. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WILL BE CONFINED AWAY FROM THE CSTS DUE TO
NE FLOW WITH HI PRES BLDG OVR NEW ENGLAND. NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR
WX BUT HEAVY RAIN IS PSBL IN SOME AREAS. AFTN HI TEMPS WILL RANGE
FM THE UPR 70S TO NEAR 80 OVR THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE LO-MID 80S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE HIGH SURGES SSW OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SETTLING OVER THE PIEDMONT BY MONDAY. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A DRYING TREND ALONG WITH A NE WIND THAT SHOULD BE RATHER
BREEZY ALONG THE COAST. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

HIGHS WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH MONDAY (AROUND -1
ST DEV). HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
MAINLY LOW/MID 60S EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL
MAINTAIN A COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED BEFORE THE
RIDGE AXES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT ALOFT BEGIN TO SHIFT JUST EAST OF
THE FA...AND MOVING OFFSHORE BY THU. THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY DRY
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS DUE TO WELL-ESTABLISHED
SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE...HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE FAR SE VA/NE NC COAST ON WED DUE TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL SYSTEM
PASSING WELL TO THE EAST. HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW
NORMAL FROM MON NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT (LOWS IN THE 60S...UPPER
50S FAR WRN COUNTIES/HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S...MID-UPPER 70S
BEACHES) AND THEN REBOUND TWD SEASONAL NORMALS THU/THU NIGHT
(HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S...UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S BEACHES/LOWS IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S...AROUND 70 BEACHES).

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE FA WITH HIGH PRS
BUILDING SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND. LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWING NEXT
BAND OF SHWRS MOVG SE ALONG I64 CORRIDOR WITH LATEST SHORT RANGE
MODELS INDCTG THESE MAKING IT INTO CNTRL VA NEXT SVRL HRS. THUS
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP IN RIC ERLY THIS MORNING.

NEXT IMPULSE PROGGED TO TRACK SE AFTER 12Z AFFECTING RIC / SBY
AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. GOOD CONFIDENCE BTWN THE MODELS
OF THIS OCCURRING SO INCLUDED A FEW HRS OF (MVFR) RAIN AT THOSE
SITES. CHALLENGING PART OF FCST WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT CIGS DROP
BELOW 1K FT THRU 12Z DUE TO E-NE FLOW OFF THE OCEAN. FOG NOT THAT
MUCH OF A CHALLENGE AS CIGS ARE.

CIGS BARELY RISE INTO VFR RANGE AS TSCTNS SHOW PLNTY OF MOISTUTE
ARND THE AREA FOR A BKN SC DECK (3-4K FT) THRU MUCH OF THE FCST
PRD WITH MVFR CIGS RETURNING AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PSBL DUE TO STRATUS/FOG SUN MORNING.
OTW...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEGINNING SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND. DESPITE THE ONGOING E-NE WINDS...LATEST
GUIDANCE NOT AS BULLISH WITH THE WINDS THUS CREATING SOME DOUBT
WHEN SCA CONDITIONS WILL START. TOUGHEST CALL WILL BE SOUTHERN CHES
BAY WHERE ONLY MINIMAL CONDITIONS WILL BE MEET. MOUTH OF THE BAY
WILL HAVE AN EARLIER START AND LATER FINISH TIME. SEAS (ESPECIALLY
OUT NEAR 20 NM) ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 5 FEET THEN REMAIN THERE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO EXTENDED THE SCA HEADLINES OVR THE
WATERS THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR CONTINUITY SAKE...WENT AHEAD AND
HOISTED SCA HEADLINES FOR CURRITUCK SND SUN AND SUN NIGHT AS SCNDRY
SURGE WILL LIKELY KEEP WINDS BTWN 15-20 KTS.

FORECAST NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF A DEVELOPING
(TROPICAL) LOW PROGGED TO TRACK NE BUT REMAIN EAST OF GULF STREAM
WALL. SWELL FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT THE MID ATLNTC
BEACH AREAS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ632.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAS
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230751
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
351 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST
OF THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND SLOWLY BUILDS
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE SETTLING OVER THE
PIEDMONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS HI PRES CENTERED OVR NEW ENGLAND AND A
DISORGANIZED PRES FIELD OVR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION COINCIDING
WITH A WEAK STALLED FRNTAL BNDRY. ALOFT...NW FLOW CONTINUES WITH
AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVR THE E-CNTRL CONUS. THE SFC FRNT
WILL SAG S INTO THE CAROLINAS TDA. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY WITH SCT
SHRAS/TSTMS...ESPECIALLY OVR THE PIEDMONT CLOSER TO THE FRNT. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WILL BE CONFINED AWAY FROM THE CSTS DUE TO
NE FLOW WITH HI PRES BLDG OVR NEW ENGLAND. NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR
WX BUT HEAVY RAIN IS PSBL IN SOME AREAS. AFTN HI TEMPS WILL RANGE
FM THE UPR 70S TO NEAR 80 OVR THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE LO-MID 80S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE HIGH SURGES SSW OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SETTLING OVER THE PIEDMONT BY MONDAY. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A DRYING TREND ALONG WITH A NE WIND THAT SHOULD BE RATHER
BREEZY ALONG THE COAST. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

HIGHS WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH MONDAY (AROUND -1
ST DEV). HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
MAINLY LOW/MID 60S EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL
MAINTAIN A COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED BEFORE THE
RIDGE AXES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT ALOFT BEGIN TO SHIFT JUST EAST OF
THE FA...AND MOVING OFFSHORE BY THU. THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY DRY
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS DUE TO WELL-ESTABLISHED
SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE...HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE FAR SE VA/NE NC COAST ON WED DUE TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL SYSTEM
PASSING WELL TO THE EAST. HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW
NORMAL FROM MON NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT (LOWS IN THE 60S...UPPER
50S FAR WRN COUNTIES/HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S...MID-UPPER 70S
BEACHES) AND THEN REBOUND TWD SEASONAL NORMALS THU/THU NIGHT
(HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S...UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S BEACHES/LOWS IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S...AROUND 70 BEACHES).

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE FA WITH HIGH PRS
BUILDING SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND. LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWING NEXT
BAND OF SHWRS MOVG SE ALONG I64 CORRIDOR WITH LATEST SHORT RANGE
MODELS INDCTG THESE MAKING IT INTO CNTRL VA NEXT SVRL HRS. THUS
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP IN RIC ERLY THIS MORNING.

NEXT IMPULSE PROGGED TO TRACK SE AFTER 12Z AFFECTING RIC / SBY
AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. GOOD CONFIDENCE BTWN THE MODELS
OF THIS OCCURRING SO INCLUDED A FEW HRS OF (MVFR) RAIN AT THOSE
SITES. CHALLENGING PART OF FCST WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT CIGS DROP
BELOW 1K FT THRU 12Z DUE TO E-NE FLOW OFF THE OCEAN. FOG NOT THAT
MUCH OF A CHALLENGE AS CIGS ARE.

CIGS BARELY RISE INTO VFR RANGE AS TSCTNS SHOW PLNTY OF MOISTUTE
ARND THE AREA FOR A BKN SC DECK (3-4K FT) THRU MUCH OF THE FCST
PRD WITH MVFR CIGS RETURNING AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PSBL DUE TO STRATUS/FOG SUN MORNING.
OTW...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEGINNING SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND. DESPITE THE ONGOING E-NE WINDS...LATEST
GUIDANCE NOT AS BULLISH WITH THE WINDS THUS CREATING SOME DOUBT
WHEN SCA CONDITIONS WILL START. TOUGHEST CALL WILL BE SOUTHERN CHES
BAY WHERE ONLY MINIMAL CONDITIONS WILL BE MEET. MOUTH OF THE BAY
WILL HAVE AN EARLIER START AND LATER FINISH TIME. SEAS (ESPECIALLY
OUT NEAR 20 NM) ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 5 FEET THEN REMAIN THERE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO EXTENDED THE SCA HEADLINES OVR THE
WATERS THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR CONTINUITY SAKE...WENT AHEAD AND
HOISTED SCA HEADLINES FOR CURRITUCK SND SUN AND SUN NIGHT AS SCNDRY
SURGE WILL LIKELY KEEP WINDS BTWN 15-20 KTS.

FORECAST NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF A DEVELOPING
(TROPICAL) LOW PROGGED TO TRACK NE BUT REMAIN EAST OF GULF STREAM
WALL. SWELL FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT THE MID ATLNTC
BEACH AREAS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ632.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAS
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR






000
FXUS61 KLWX 230750
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
350 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INLAND THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DOWN THE COAST...REACHING THE
DELMARVA BY SUNDAY...AND REMAINING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIPRES BLDG INTO NEW ENGLAND HAS PUSHED A CDFNT WWD TWD THE
APLCNS. STILL HV WK IMPULSES ALONG THIS BNDRY AS IT EXTENDS WWD INTO
THE MIDWEST. HWVR...SHARPENING H5 FLOW /RDG IN THE MS VLY AND TROF
IN THE WRN ATLC/ WL DRIVE THE FNT FURTHER S AND W TDA. AMS WL STILL
BE PLENTY SATD /PWAT 1.5 INCHES/...BUT W/ A MARINE AMS INSTBY WL BE
LMTD.

AM A BIT CONCERNED AT THE PROLIFIC RAFL RATES FM THE FEW SHRA/TSRA
ON RDR ATTM. WL STILL HV THE UPR JET OVHD...BUT AM HOPEFUL THAT THE
LACK OF SFC INSTBY/BNDRY DURG THE DAYTIME HRS WL BE ENUF TO PRECLUDE
AN ORGANIZED RAFL THREAT. THEREFORE...WL NOT BE POSTING A FF WATCH
ATTM.

MESO AND SYNOP SCALE GDNC ALL SUGGEST THAT PCPN CRRNTLY OVER THE
WRN/SRN SXNS OF CWFA WL BE EXPANDING UPON SUNRISE/DIURNAL HTG...
PEAKING DURG THE MIDDAY HRS. THEN...AS LOWER DEWPT AIR/SUBSIDENCE
INFILTRATES FM THE NE...THE AXIS OF PCPN WL BE PUSHED WWD AGN. WL
START THE EVNG HRS W/ POPS AREAWIDE /40-50 PCT W...20 PCT E/... BUT
WL BE CARVING AWAY AT THAT FM E TO W. BELIEVE THE OVNGT HRS WL BE
DRY ALONG I-95.

FEW CHGS TO TEMPS REQD. KEPT GOING MAXT FCST MID 70S N TO ARND 80F.
IF PCPN HAS ENUF STAYING POWER...IT/LL BE TUFF TO SEE MUCH OF A TEMP
RISE. FORTUNATELY...DONT BELIEVE THAT WL HPPN. KEPT MIN-T TNGT
LWR-MID 60S...AS DEWPTS WL BE A LTL BIT SLOW TO DROP.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
H5 HGTS WL BE RISING SUN AS SFC HIPRES BLDS DOWN THE COAST. AS A
RSLT...CLDS SHUD BE BREAKING APART...1ST IN THE NE...BUT EVENTUALLY
AREAWIDE. MTNS WL BE LAST. HV KEPT FCST DRY...BUT RECOGNIZE THERE
MAY BE A LINGERING MRNG SPRINKLE OR TWO IN THE APLCNS S OF W99. MOS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON MAXT /NEAR 80/...AND SEE NO REASON TO ARGUE.
DEWPTS WL BE DROPPING...AND SHUD BE IN THE UPR 50S SUN NGT. HENCE...
MON MRNG MIN-T COOLER...MID 50S TO LWR 60S.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN DOMINATE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK WITH SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY. POSITION OF UPPER FLOW LOOKS TO KEEP ANY
TROPICAL SYSTEM ACTIVITY OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC NEXT WEEK AS
WELL.

RETURN FLOW SETS IN WITH TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL FOR THURSDAY
AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CONUS. THIS DEEPENING TROUGH DRAGS A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH FRIDAY
LOOKING TO BE BACK IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S ATTM. DEEP-LAYER WIND
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION
WITH THIS COLD FROPA.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CHALLENGING TAF FCST THIS CYCLE. CONDS MAINLY MVFR TO OCNL IFR...
PRETTY MUCH DUE TO CIGS. BRIEF LWR VSBY RESTRICTIONS INVOF SHRA. ELY
FLOW CONTS TDA...WHICH WL BRING A MARITIME AMS INLAND. THUS...CIGS
AND PERHAPS VSBYS WL KEEP DROPPING. XPCT IFR TO BE PREVALENT FOR THE
MRNG PUSH...BEFORE CIGS LIFT AND ANY FOG DSPTS BY AFTN. WL BE
OPTIMISTIC...FCSTG VFR BY ELY-MID AFTN. WHILE SCT-NMRS SHRA WL BE
ARND...DONT BELIEVE THEY WL DICTATE OVERALL FLGT CONDS. THEY MAY
PROVIDE BRIEFLY LWR VSBYS THO.

MAY HV FLGT RESTRICTIONS AGN LT TNGT NEAR MRB/CHO. OTRW...DRIER AIR
WL BE COMING DOWN FM THE NE...WHICH SHUD MAINTAIN VFR OVNGT FOR THE
METROS.

SKIES CLEAR FROM INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE/VFR
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&

.MARINE...
ELY FLOW ARND 10 KT ATTM...WHICH SHUD CONT THRU THE AFTN. SHRA WL
BECOME MORE NMRS TDA...BEFORE BEING SHUNTED INLAND TNGT. ONCE THAT
HPPNS...SUSPECT THERE WL BE A PUSH OF 15 KT ELY WNDS. DONT SEE MUCH
MIXING THO...SO DONT XPCT GUST TO BE TOO MUCH HIER...AND HV KEPT
WNDS BLO SCA THRESHOLDS.

HIPRES BLDS DOWN THE COAST TMRW. ELY FLOW WL CONT...BUT AT 5-10 KT
SUSTAINED /MAYBE CLSR TO 10 KT FOR THE MID BAY/OPEN WATERS/...AND
THEN DIMINISHING SUN NGT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MID
WEEK. NO FLAGS ANTICIPATED.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LVLS GENERALLY AOB 1/2 FT ABV ASTRO NORMS ATTM. HWVR...WNDS HV
BECOME ELY...WHICH IS PUSHING EXTRA WATER INTO THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.
DEPARTURES DOWN THERE CLOSER TO A FT...AND THAT EXCESS WL BE COMING
UP THE ESTUARY.

THE PM TIDE TODAY IS THE LOWER OF THE TWO ASTRONOMICALLY...BUT WITH
THE FCST WATER LVL INCREASE SHOULD END UP BEING SIMILAR TO THE MRNG
TIDE...IF NOT A PINCH HIGHER. THE CONCERN COMES LATE TNGT INTO ELY
SUN MRNG...WHEN DEPARTURES OF A FOOT WL CAUSE WATER TO APPROACH
MINOR THRESHOLDS FOR SENSITIVE LOCATIONS ON THE WESTERN SHORE AND
TIDAL POTOMAC. ELY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...AEB
AVIATION...HTS/AEB
MARINE...HTS/AEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 230750
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
350 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INLAND THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DOWN THE COAST...REACHING THE
DELMARVA BY SUNDAY...AND REMAINING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIPRES BLDG INTO NEW ENGLAND HAS PUSHED A CDFNT WWD TWD THE
APLCNS. STILL HV WK IMPULSES ALONG THIS BNDRY AS IT EXTENDS WWD INTO
THE MIDWEST. HWVR...SHARPENING H5 FLOW /RDG IN THE MS VLY AND TROF
IN THE WRN ATLC/ WL DRIVE THE FNT FURTHER S AND W TDA. AMS WL STILL
BE PLENTY SATD /PWAT 1.5 INCHES/...BUT W/ A MARINE AMS INSTBY WL BE
LMTD.

AM A BIT CONCERNED AT THE PROLIFIC RAFL RATES FM THE FEW SHRA/TSRA
ON RDR ATTM. WL STILL HV THE UPR JET OVHD...BUT AM HOPEFUL THAT THE
LACK OF SFC INSTBY/BNDRY DURG THE DAYTIME HRS WL BE ENUF TO PRECLUDE
AN ORGANIZED RAFL THREAT. THEREFORE...WL NOT BE POSTING A FF WATCH
ATTM.

MESO AND SYNOP SCALE GDNC ALL SUGGEST THAT PCPN CRRNTLY OVER THE
WRN/SRN SXNS OF CWFA WL BE EXPANDING UPON SUNRISE/DIURNAL HTG...
PEAKING DURG THE MIDDAY HRS. THEN...AS LOWER DEWPT AIR/SUBSIDENCE
INFILTRATES FM THE NE...THE AXIS OF PCPN WL BE PUSHED WWD AGN. WL
START THE EVNG HRS W/ POPS AREAWIDE /40-50 PCT W...20 PCT E/... BUT
WL BE CARVING AWAY AT THAT FM E TO W. BELIEVE THE OVNGT HRS WL BE
DRY ALONG I-95.

FEW CHGS TO TEMPS REQD. KEPT GOING MAXT FCST MID 70S N TO ARND 80F.
IF PCPN HAS ENUF STAYING POWER...IT/LL BE TUFF TO SEE MUCH OF A TEMP
RISE. FORTUNATELY...DONT BELIEVE THAT WL HPPN. KEPT MIN-T TNGT
LWR-MID 60S...AS DEWPTS WL BE A LTL BIT SLOW TO DROP.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
H5 HGTS WL BE RISING SUN AS SFC HIPRES BLDS DOWN THE COAST. AS A
RSLT...CLDS SHUD BE BREAKING APART...1ST IN THE NE...BUT EVENTUALLY
AREAWIDE. MTNS WL BE LAST. HV KEPT FCST DRY...BUT RECOGNIZE THERE
MAY BE A LINGERING MRNG SPRINKLE OR TWO IN THE APLCNS S OF W99. MOS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON MAXT /NEAR 80/...AND SEE NO REASON TO ARGUE.
DEWPTS WL BE DROPPING...AND SHUD BE IN THE UPR 50S SUN NGT. HENCE...
MON MRNG MIN-T COOLER...MID 50S TO LWR 60S.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN DOMINATE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK WITH SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY. POSITION OF UPPER FLOW LOOKS TO KEEP ANY
TROPICAL SYSTEM ACTIVITY OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC NEXT WEEK AS
WELL.

RETURN FLOW SETS IN WITH TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL FOR THURSDAY
AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CONUS. THIS DEEPENING TROUGH DRAGS A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH FRIDAY
LOOKING TO BE BACK IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S ATTM. DEEP-LAYER WIND
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION
WITH THIS COLD FROPA.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CHALLENGING TAF FCST THIS CYCLE. CONDS MAINLY MVFR TO OCNL IFR...
PRETTY MUCH DUE TO CIGS. BRIEF LWR VSBY RESTRICTIONS INVOF SHRA. ELY
FLOW CONTS TDA...WHICH WL BRING A MARITIME AMS INLAND. THUS...CIGS
AND PERHAPS VSBYS WL KEEP DROPPING. XPCT IFR TO BE PREVALENT FOR THE
MRNG PUSH...BEFORE CIGS LIFT AND ANY FOG DSPTS BY AFTN. WL BE
OPTIMISTIC...FCSTG VFR BY ELY-MID AFTN. WHILE SCT-NMRS SHRA WL BE
ARND...DONT BELIEVE THEY WL DICTATE OVERALL FLGT CONDS. THEY MAY
PROVIDE BRIEFLY LWR VSBYS THO.

MAY HV FLGT RESTRICTIONS AGN LT TNGT NEAR MRB/CHO. OTRW...DRIER AIR
WL BE COMING DOWN FM THE NE...WHICH SHUD MAINTAIN VFR OVNGT FOR THE
METROS.

SKIES CLEAR FROM INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE/VFR
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&

.MARINE...
ELY FLOW ARND 10 KT ATTM...WHICH SHUD CONT THRU THE AFTN. SHRA WL
BECOME MORE NMRS TDA...BEFORE BEING SHUNTED INLAND TNGT. ONCE THAT
HPPNS...SUSPECT THERE WL BE A PUSH OF 15 KT ELY WNDS. DONT SEE MUCH
MIXING THO...SO DONT XPCT GUST TO BE TOO MUCH HIER...AND HV KEPT
WNDS BLO SCA THRESHOLDS.

HIPRES BLDS DOWN THE COAST TMRW. ELY FLOW WL CONT...BUT AT 5-10 KT
SUSTAINED /MAYBE CLSR TO 10 KT FOR THE MID BAY/OPEN WATERS/...AND
THEN DIMINISHING SUN NGT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MID
WEEK. NO FLAGS ANTICIPATED.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LVLS GENERALLY AOB 1/2 FT ABV ASTRO NORMS ATTM. HWVR...WNDS HV
BECOME ELY...WHICH IS PUSHING EXTRA WATER INTO THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.
DEPARTURES DOWN THERE CLOSER TO A FT...AND THAT EXCESS WL BE COMING
UP THE ESTUARY.

THE PM TIDE TODAY IS THE LOWER OF THE TWO ASTRONOMICALLY...BUT WITH
THE FCST WATER LVL INCREASE SHOULD END UP BEING SIMILAR TO THE MRNG
TIDE...IF NOT A PINCH HIGHER. THE CONCERN COMES LATE TNGT INTO ELY
SUN MRNG...WHEN DEPARTURES OF A FOOT WL CAUSE WATER TO APPROACH
MINOR THRESHOLDS FOR SENSITIVE LOCATIONS ON THE WESTERN SHORE AND
TIDAL POTOMAC. ELY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...AEB
AVIATION...HTS/AEB
MARINE...HTS/AEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 230750
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
350 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INLAND THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DOWN THE COAST...REACHING THE
DELMARVA BY SUNDAY...AND REMAINING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIPRES BLDG INTO NEW ENGLAND HAS PUSHED A CDFNT WWD TWD THE
APLCNS. STILL HV WK IMPULSES ALONG THIS BNDRY AS IT EXTENDS WWD INTO
THE MIDWEST. HWVR...SHARPENING H5 FLOW /RDG IN THE MS VLY AND TROF
IN THE WRN ATLC/ WL DRIVE THE FNT FURTHER S AND W TDA. AMS WL STILL
BE PLENTY SATD /PWAT 1.5 INCHES/...BUT W/ A MARINE AMS INSTBY WL BE
LMTD.

AM A BIT CONCERNED AT THE PROLIFIC RAFL RATES FM THE FEW SHRA/TSRA
ON RDR ATTM. WL STILL HV THE UPR JET OVHD...BUT AM HOPEFUL THAT THE
LACK OF SFC INSTBY/BNDRY DURG THE DAYTIME HRS WL BE ENUF TO PRECLUDE
AN ORGANIZED RAFL THREAT. THEREFORE...WL NOT BE POSTING A FF WATCH
ATTM.

MESO AND SYNOP SCALE GDNC ALL SUGGEST THAT PCPN CRRNTLY OVER THE
WRN/SRN SXNS OF CWFA WL BE EXPANDING UPON SUNRISE/DIURNAL HTG...
PEAKING DURG THE MIDDAY HRS. THEN...AS LOWER DEWPT AIR/SUBSIDENCE
INFILTRATES FM THE NE...THE AXIS OF PCPN WL BE PUSHED WWD AGN. WL
START THE EVNG HRS W/ POPS AREAWIDE /40-50 PCT W...20 PCT E/... BUT
WL BE CARVING AWAY AT THAT FM E TO W. BELIEVE THE OVNGT HRS WL BE
DRY ALONG I-95.

FEW CHGS TO TEMPS REQD. KEPT GOING MAXT FCST MID 70S N TO ARND 80F.
IF PCPN HAS ENUF STAYING POWER...IT/LL BE TUFF TO SEE MUCH OF A TEMP
RISE. FORTUNATELY...DONT BELIEVE THAT WL HPPN. KEPT MIN-T TNGT
LWR-MID 60S...AS DEWPTS WL BE A LTL BIT SLOW TO DROP.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
H5 HGTS WL BE RISING SUN AS SFC HIPRES BLDS DOWN THE COAST. AS A
RSLT...CLDS SHUD BE BREAKING APART...1ST IN THE NE...BUT EVENTUALLY
AREAWIDE. MTNS WL BE LAST. HV KEPT FCST DRY...BUT RECOGNIZE THERE
MAY BE A LINGERING MRNG SPRINKLE OR TWO IN THE APLCNS S OF W99. MOS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON MAXT /NEAR 80/...AND SEE NO REASON TO ARGUE.
DEWPTS WL BE DROPPING...AND SHUD BE IN THE UPR 50S SUN NGT. HENCE...
MON MRNG MIN-T COOLER...MID 50S TO LWR 60S.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN DOMINATE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK WITH SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY. POSITION OF UPPER FLOW LOOKS TO KEEP ANY
TROPICAL SYSTEM ACTIVITY OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC NEXT WEEK AS
WELL.

RETURN FLOW SETS IN WITH TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL FOR THURSDAY
AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CONUS. THIS DEEPENING TROUGH DRAGS A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH FRIDAY
LOOKING TO BE BACK IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S ATTM. DEEP-LAYER WIND
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION
WITH THIS COLD FROPA.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CHALLENGING TAF FCST THIS CYCLE. CONDS MAINLY MVFR TO OCNL IFR...
PRETTY MUCH DUE TO CIGS. BRIEF LWR VSBY RESTRICTIONS INVOF SHRA. ELY
FLOW CONTS TDA...WHICH WL BRING A MARITIME AMS INLAND. THUS...CIGS
AND PERHAPS VSBYS WL KEEP DROPPING. XPCT IFR TO BE PREVALENT FOR THE
MRNG PUSH...BEFORE CIGS LIFT AND ANY FOG DSPTS BY AFTN. WL BE
OPTIMISTIC...FCSTG VFR BY ELY-MID AFTN. WHILE SCT-NMRS SHRA WL BE
ARND...DONT BELIEVE THEY WL DICTATE OVERALL FLGT CONDS. THEY MAY
PROVIDE BRIEFLY LWR VSBYS THO.

MAY HV FLGT RESTRICTIONS AGN LT TNGT NEAR MRB/CHO. OTRW...DRIER AIR
WL BE COMING DOWN FM THE NE...WHICH SHUD MAINTAIN VFR OVNGT FOR THE
METROS.

SKIES CLEAR FROM INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE/VFR
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&

.MARINE...
ELY FLOW ARND 10 KT ATTM...WHICH SHUD CONT THRU THE AFTN. SHRA WL
BECOME MORE NMRS TDA...BEFORE BEING SHUNTED INLAND TNGT. ONCE THAT
HPPNS...SUSPECT THERE WL BE A PUSH OF 15 KT ELY WNDS. DONT SEE MUCH
MIXING THO...SO DONT XPCT GUST TO BE TOO MUCH HIER...AND HV KEPT
WNDS BLO SCA THRESHOLDS.

HIPRES BLDS DOWN THE COAST TMRW. ELY FLOW WL CONT...BUT AT 5-10 KT
SUSTAINED /MAYBE CLSR TO 10 KT FOR THE MID BAY/OPEN WATERS/...AND
THEN DIMINISHING SUN NGT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MID
WEEK. NO FLAGS ANTICIPATED.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LVLS GENERALLY AOB 1/2 FT ABV ASTRO NORMS ATTM. HWVR...WNDS HV
BECOME ELY...WHICH IS PUSHING EXTRA WATER INTO THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.
DEPARTURES DOWN THERE CLOSER TO A FT...AND THAT EXCESS WL BE COMING
UP THE ESTUARY.

THE PM TIDE TODAY IS THE LOWER OF THE TWO ASTRONOMICALLY...BUT WITH
THE FCST WATER LVL INCREASE SHOULD END UP BEING SIMILAR TO THE MRNG
TIDE...IF NOT A PINCH HIGHER. THE CONCERN COMES LATE TNGT INTO ELY
SUN MRNG...WHEN DEPARTURES OF A FOOT WL CAUSE WATER TO APPROACH
MINOR THRESHOLDS FOR SENSITIVE LOCATIONS ON THE WESTERN SHORE AND
TIDAL POTOMAC. ELY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...AEB
AVIATION...HTS/AEB
MARINE...HTS/AEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 230750
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
350 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INLAND THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DOWN THE COAST...REACHING THE
DELMARVA BY SUNDAY...AND REMAINING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIPRES BLDG INTO NEW ENGLAND HAS PUSHED A CDFNT WWD TWD THE
APLCNS. STILL HV WK IMPULSES ALONG THIS BNDRY AS IT EXTENDS WWD INTO
THE MIDWEST. HWVR...SHARPENING H5 FLOW /RDG IN THE MS VLY AND TROF
IN THE WRN ATLC/ WL DRIVE THE FNT FURTHER S AND W TDA. AMS WL STILL
BE PLENTY SATD /PWAT 1.5 INCHES/...BUT W/ A MARINE AMS INSTBY WL BE
LMTD.

AM A BIT CONCERNED AT THE PROLIFIC RAFL RATES FM THE FEW SHRA/TSRA
ON RDR ATTM. WL STILL HV THE UPR JET OVHD...BUT AM HOPEFUL THAT THE
LACK OF SFC INSTBY/BNDRY DURG THE DAYTIME HRS WL BE ENUF TO PRECLUDE
AN ORGANIZED RAFL THREAT. THEREFORE...WL NOT BE POSTING A FF WATCH
ATTM.

MESO AND SYNOP SCALE GDNC ALL SUGGEST THAT PCPN CRRNTLY OVER THE
WRN/SRN SXNS OF CWFA WL BE EXPANDING UPON SUNRISE/DIURNAL HTG...
PEAKING DURG THE MIDDAY HRS. THEN...AS LOWER DEWPT AIR/SUBSIDENCE
INFILTRATES FM THE NE...THE AXIS OF PCPN WL BE PUSHED WWD AGN. WL
START THE EVNG HRS W/ POPS AREAWIDE /40-50 PCT W...20 PCT E/... BUT
WL BE CARVING AWAY AT THAT FM E TO W. BELIEVE THE OVNGT HRS WL BE
DRY ALONG I-95.

FEW CHGS TO TEMPS REQD. KEPT GOING MAXT FCST MID 70S N TO ARND 80F.
IF PCPN HAS ENUF STAYING POWER...IT/LL BE TUFF TO SEE MUCH OF A TEMP
RISE. FORTUNATELY...DONT BELIEVE THAT WL HPPN. KEPT MIN-T TNGT
LWR-MID 60S...AS DEWPTS WL BE A LTL BIT SLOW TO DROP.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
H5 HGTS WL BE RISING SUN AS SFC HIPRES BLDS DOWN THE COAST. AS A
RSLT...CLDS SHUD BE BREAKING APART...1ST IN THE NE...BUT EVENTUALLY
AREAWIDE. MTNS WL BE LAST. HV KEPT FCST DRY...BUT RECOGNIZE THERE
MAY BE A LINGERING MRNG SPRINKLE OR TWO IN THE APLCNS S OF W99. MOS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON MAXT /NEAR 80/...AND SEE NO REASON TO ARGUE.
DEWPTS WL BE DROPPING...AND SHUD BE IN THE UPR 50S SUN NGT. HENCE...
MON MRNG MIN-T COOLER...MID 50S TO LWR 60S.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN DOMINATE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK WITH SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY. POSITION OF UPPER FLOW LOOKS TO KEEP ANY
TROPICAL SYSTEM ACTIVITY OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC NEXT WEEK AS
WELL.

RETURN FLOW SETS IN WITH TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL FOR THURSDAY
AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CONUS. THIS DEEPENING TROUGH DRAGS A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH FRIDAY
LOOKING TO BE BACK IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S ATTM. DEEP-LAYER WIND
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION
WITH THIS COLD FROPA.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CHALLENGING TAF FCST THIS CYCLE. CONDS MAINLY MVFR TO OCNL IFR...
PRETTY MUCH DUE TO CIGS. BRIEF LWR VSBY RESTRICTIONS INVOF SHRA. ELY
FLOW CONTS TDA...WHICH WL BRING A MARITIME AMS INLAND. THUS...CIGS
AND PERHAPS VSBYS WL KEEP DROPPING. XPCT IFR TO BE PREVALENT FOR THE
MRNG PUSH...BEFORE CIGS LIFT AND ANY FOG DSPTS BY AFTN. WL BE
OPTIMISTIC...FCSTG VFR BY ELY-MID AFTN. WHILE SCT-NMRS SHRA WL BE
ARND...DONT BELIEVE THEY WL DICTATE OVERALL FLGT CONDS. THEY MAY
PROVIDE BRIEFLY LWR VSBYS THO.

MAY HV FLGT RESTRICTIONS AGN LT TNGT NEAR MRB/CHO. OTRW...DRIER AIR
WL BE COMING DOWN FM THE NE...WHICH SHUD MAINTAIN VFR OVNGT FOR THE
METROS.

SKIES CLEAR FROM INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE/VFR
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&

.MARINE...
ELY FLOW ARND 10 KT ATTM...WHICH SHUD CONT THRU THE AFTN. SHRA WL
BECOME MORE NMRS TDA...BEFORE BEING SHUNTED INLAND TNGT. ONCE THAT
HPPNS...SUSPECT THERE WL BE A PUSH OF 15 KT ELY WNDS. DONT SEE MUCH
MIXING THO...SO DONT XPCT GUST TO BE TOO MUCH HIER...AND HV KEPT
WNDS BLO SCA THRESHOLDS.

HIPRES BLDS DOWN THE COAST TMRW. ELY FLOW WL CONT...BUT AT 5-10 KT
SUSTAINED /MAYBE CLSR TO 10 KT FOR THE MID BAY/OPEN WATERS/...AND
THEN DIMINISHING SUN NGT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MID
WEEK. NO FLAGS ANTICIPATED.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LVLS GENERALLY AOB 1/2 FT ABV ASTRO NORMS ATTM. HWVR...WNDS HV
BECOME ELY...WHICH IS PUSHING EXTRA WATER INTO THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.
DEPARTURES DOWN THERE CLOSER TO A FT...AND THAT EXCESS WL BE COMING
UP THE ESTUARY.

THE PM TIDE TODAY IS THE LOWER OF THE TWO ASTRONOMICALLY...BUT WITH
THE FCST WATER LVL INCREASE SHOULD END UP BEING SIMILAR TO THE MRNG
TIDE...IF NOT A PINCH HIGHER. THE CONCERN COMES LATE TNGT INTO ELY
SUN MRNG...WHEN DEPARTURES OF A FOOT WL CAUSE WATER TO APPROACH
MINOR THRESHOLDS FOR SENSITIVE LOCATIONS ON THE WESTERN SHORE AND
TIDAL POTOMAC. ELY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...AEB
AVIATION...HTS/AEB
MARINE...HTS/AEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS







000
FXUS61 KPHI 230746 CCA
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
345 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH OUT OF CANADA TOWARDS OUR
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER OUR
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK BEFORE IT WEAKENS. A COLD FRONT
COULD PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THERE HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
VORTICITY IMPULSE THAT HAVE REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO OUR
WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITHOUT MUCH FLOW ALOFT, THEY HAVE
NOT MOVED MUCH. HOWEVER, AS THE WEAK IMPULSE CONTINUES TO SIDE
EASTWARD THOUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, THESE SHOWERS WILL BEGIN
DRIFTING EASTWARD AND SHOULD BEGIN DISSIPATING.

HOWEVER, THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. VERTICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DRY LATER IN THE DAY AS THE
IMPULSE APPROACHES AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER SOUTH
INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INTERACT WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH PW VALUES NEAR 1.5
INCHES, THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS REALLY NO INSTABILITY EXPECTED TODAY,
SO WE DO NOT HAVE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, ALTHOUGH IT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE AN COUPLE OF ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES.

FOR HIGHS, USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB
TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX WILL BE MOVING THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN AREAS
THIS EVENING, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH. MEANWHILE, PW VALUES WILL BE DROPPING OFF QUITE SHARPLY AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THERE MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY IN THE
EVENING, BUT WHATEVER IS OUT THERE SHOULD DISSIPATE AND/OR MOVE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING, AND THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT SHOULD
BE RAIN FREE.

FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MANY CHANGES THROUGH MID WEEK FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
STILL EXPECTING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AS THE SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS OVER OUR REGION, AND IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A SHORT WAVE
RIDGE PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST OVER OUR REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
WITH THE COOLER AIR SETTLING IN ON SUNDAY, SHOULD START WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, BUT HAVE A STEADY WARMING TREND THROUGH MID
WEEK, ESPECIALLY AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY REMAINS THE PERIOD OF MOST INTEREST OVER
THE NEXT WEEK, BUT ALSO WITH THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY. THERE ARE
THREE FEATURES THAT WILL BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THAT
COULD HAVE BIG IMPACTS WITH OUR WEATHER IN THE LATE WEEK PERIODS.
FIRST...THE TOPICAL SYSTEM WHICH COULD DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WHILE NEARLY ALL OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE THIS SYSTEM
STAYING WELL OFF SHORE, AND THUS NOT DIRECTLY IMPACTING US, IT
COULD HELP TO WEAKEN THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, RESULTING IN AN INDIRECT IMPACT.
SECOND, THE SURFACE COLD FRONT, WHICH LONG RANGE MODELS EITHER
KEEP PUSHING BACK THE ARRIVAL IN OUR REGION, OR KEEP IT NORTH OF
US ALL TOGETHER. AT THIS POINT, IT STILL SEEMS LIKELY THAT THE
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR REGION, BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL FRIDAY
AS THE THIRD FEATURE, A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, SLIDES EAST OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALL THAT SAID, OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR
RAIN WILL COME WHEN THE FRONT ARRIVES, ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING
AND TRACK OF THE FRONT, HAVE KEPT POPS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD IN THE 20S AND 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TAF SITES REMAIN VFR AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, HOWEVER, WE STILL
EXPECT CIGS TO DROP TO MVFR BY DAYBREAK AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP, MAINLY FOR
ABE/RDG/TTN, ALTHOUGH THE OTHER SITES MAY DROP INTO THE LOW END OF
MVFR. ONCE THESE LOWER CIGS DEVELOP, WE EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN
THROUGH THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS, BEFORE AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR
THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE DAY, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND TIMING IS NOT HIGH, SO WE LEFT THEM OUT
OF THE AFTERNOON FORECAST; EXCEPT ABE/RDG THIS MORNING WHERE
SHOWERS ARE MORE IMMINENT. IF ANY SHOWERS DO OCCUR, THEY COULD BRIEFLY
REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE EAST TO NORTHEAST 5-10 KNOTS OR LESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN, AND HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE NEW JERSEY ATLANTIC COAST. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS THE EAST
TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW INCREASES. WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20-25 KNOTS
AS WELL LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EARLY IN THE DAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. THE MODERATE
RISK MAY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ452>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...ROBERTSON








000
FXUS61 KPHI 230746 CCA
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
345 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH OUT OF CANADA TOWARDS OUR
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER OUR
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK BEFORE IT WEAKENS. A COLD FRONT
COULD PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THERE HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
VORTICITY IMPULSE THAT HAVE REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO OUR
WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITHOUT MUCH FLOW ALOFT, THEY HAVE
NOT MOVED MUCH. HOWEVER, AS THE WEAK IMPULSE CONTINUES TO SIDE
EASTWARD THOUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, THESE SHOWERS WILL BEGIN
DRIFTING EASTWARD AND SHOULD BEGIN DISSIPATING.

HOWEVER, THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. VERTICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DRY LATER IN THE DAY AS THE
IMPULSE APPROACHES AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER SOUTH
INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INTERACT WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH PW VALUES NEAR 1.5
INCHES, THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS REALLY NO INSTABILITY EXPECTED TODAY,
SO WE DO NOT HAVE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, ALTHOUGH IT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE AN COUPLE OF ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES.

FOR HIGHS, USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB
TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX WILL BE MOVING THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN AREAS
THIS EVENING, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH. MEANWHILE, PW VALUES WILL BE DROPPING OFF QUITE SHARPLY AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THERE MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY IN THE
EVENING, BUT WHATEVER IS OUT THERE SHOULD DISSIPATE AND/OR MOVE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING, AND THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT SHOULD
BE RAIN FREE.

FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MANY CHANGES THROUGH MID WEEK FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
STILL EXPECTING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AS THE SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS OVER OUR REGION, AND IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A SHORT WAVE
RIDGE PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST OVER OUR REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
WITH THE COOLER AIR SETTLING IN ON SUNDAY, SHOULD START WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, BUT HAVE A STEADY WARMING TREND THROUGH MID
WEEK, ESPECIALLY AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY REMAINS THE PERIOD OF MOST INTEREST OVER
THE NEXT WEEK, BUT ALSO WITH THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY. THERE ARE
THREE FEATURES THAT WILL BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THAT
COULD HAVE BIG IMPACTS WITH OUR WEATHER IN THE LATE WEEK PERIODS.
FIRST...THE TOPICAL SYSTEM WHICH COULD DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WHILE NEARLY ALL OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE THIS SYSTEM
STAYING WELL OFF SHORE, AND THUS NOT DIRECTLY IMPACTING US, IT
COULD HELP TO WEAKEN THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, RESULTING IN AN INDIRECT IMPACT.
SECOND, THE SURFACE COLD FRONT, WHICH LONG RANGE MODELS EITHER
KEEP PUSHING BACK THE ARRIVAL IN OUR REGION, OR KEEP IT NORTH OF
US ALL TOGETHER. AT THIS POINT, IT STILL SEEMS LIKELY THAT THE
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR REGION, BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL FRIDAY
AS THE THIRD FEATURE, A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, SLIDES EAST OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALL THAT SAID, OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR
RAIN WILL COME WHEN THE FRONT ARRIVES, ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING
AND TRACK OF THE FRONT, HAVE KEPT POPS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD IN THE 20S AND 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TAF SITES REMAIN VFR AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, HOWEVER, WE STILL
EXPECT CIGS TO DROP TO MVFR BY DAYBREAK AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP, MAINLY FOR
ABE/RDG/TTN, ALTHOUGH THE OTHER SITES MAY DROP INTO THE LOW END OF
MVFR. ONCE THESE LOWER CIGS DEVELOP, WE EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN
THROUGH THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS, BEFORE AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR
THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE DAY, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND TIMING IS NOT HIGH, SO WE LEFT THEM OUT
OF THE AFTERNOON FORECAST; EXCEPT ABE/RDG THIS MORNING WHERE
SHOWERS ARE MORE IMMINENT. IF ANY SHOWERS DO OCCUR, THEY COULD BRIEFLY
REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE EAST TO NORTHEAST 5-10 KNOTS OR LESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN, AND HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE NEW JERSEY ATLANTIC COAST. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS THE EAST
TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW INCREASES. WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20-25 KNOTS
AS WELL LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EARLY IN THE DAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. THE MODERATE
RISK MAY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ452>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...ROBERTSON








000
FXUS61 KPHI 230746 CCA
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
345 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH OUT OF CANADA TOWARDS OUR
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER OUR
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK BEFORE IT WEAKENS. A COLD FRONT
COULD PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THERE HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
VORTICITY IMPULSE THAT HAVE REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO OUR
WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITHOUT MUCH FLOW ALOFT, THEY HAVE
NOT MOVED MUCH. HOWEVER, AS THE WEAK IMPULSE CONTINUES TO SIDE
EASTWARD THOUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, THESE SHOWERS WILL BEGIN
DRIFTING EASTWARD AND SHOULD BEGIN DISSIPATING.

HOWEVER, THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. VERTICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DRY LATER IN THE DAY AS THE
IMPULSE APPROACHES AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER SOUTH
INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INTERACT WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH PW VALUES NEAR 1.5
INCHES, THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS REALLY NO INSTABILITY EXPECTED TODAY,
SO WE DO NOT HAVE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, ALTHOUGH IT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE AN COUPLE OF ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES.

FOR HIGHS, USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB
TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX WILL BE MOVING THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN AREAS
THIS EVENING, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH. MEANWHILE, PW VALUES WILL BE DROPPING OFF QUITE SHARPLY AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THERE MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY IN THE
EVENING, BUT WHATEVER IS OUT THERE SHOULD DISSIPATE AND/OR MOVE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING, AND THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT SHOULD
BE RAIN FREE.

FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MANY CHANGES THROUGH MID WEEK FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
STILL EXPECTING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AS THE SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS OVER OUR REGION, AND IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A SHORT WAVE
RIDGE PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST OVER OUR REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
WITH THE COOLER AIR SETTLING IN ON SUNDAY, SHOULD START WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, BUT HAVE A STEADY WARMING TREND THROUGH MID
WEEK, ESPECIALLY AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY REMAINS THE PERIOD OF MOST INTEREST OVER
THE NEXT WEEK, BUT ALSO WITH THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY. THERE ARE
THREE FEATURES THAT WILL BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THAT
COULD HAVE BIG IMPACTS WITH OUR WEATHER IN THE LATE WEEK PERIODS.
FIRST...THE TOPICAL SYSTEM WHICH COULD DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WHILE NEARLY ALL OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE THIS SYSTEM
STAYING WELL OFF SHORE, AND THUS NOT DIRECTLY IMPACTING US, IT
COULD HELP TO WEAKEN THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, RESULTING IN AN INDIRECT IMPACT.
SECOND, THE SURFACE COLD FRONT, WHICH LONG RANGE MODELS EITHER
KEEP PUSHING BACK THE ARRIVAL IN OUR REGION, OR KEEP IT NORTH OF
US ALL TOGETHER. AT THIS POINT, IT STILL SEEMS LIKELY THAT THE
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR REGION, BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL FRIDAY
AS THE THIRD FEATURE, A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, SLIDES EAST OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALL THAT SAID, OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR
RAIN WILL COME WHEN THE FRONT ARRIVES, ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING
AND TRACK OF THE FRONT, HAVE KEPT POPS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD IN THE 20S AND 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TAF SITES REMAIN VFR AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, HOWEVER, WE STILL
EXPECT CIGS TO DROP TO MVFR BY DAYBREAK AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP, MAINLY FOR
ABE/RDG/TTN, ALTHOUGH THE OTHER SITES MAY DROP INTO THE LOW END OF
MVFR. ONCE THESE LOWER CIGS DEVELOP, WE EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN
THROUGH THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS, BEFORE AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR
THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE DAY, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND TIMING IS NOT HIGH, SO WE LEFT THEM OUT
OF THE AFTERNOON FORECAST; EXCEPT ABE/RDG THIS MORNING WHERE
SHOWERS ARE MORE IMMINENT. IF ANY SHOWERS DO OCCUR, THEY COULD BRIEFLY
REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE EAST TO NORTHEAST 5-10 KNOTS OR LESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN, AND HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE NEW JERSEY ATLANTIC COAST. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS THE EAST
TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW INCREASES. WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20-25 KNOTS
AS WELL LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EARLY IN THE DAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. THE MODERATE
RISK MAY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ452>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...ROBERTSON








000
FXUS61 KPHI 230746 CCA
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
345 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH OUT OF CANADA TOWARDS OUR
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER OUR
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK BEFORE IT WEAKENS. A COLD FRONT
COULD PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THERE HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
VORTICITY IMPULSE THAT HAVE REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO OUR
WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITHOUT MUCH FLOW ALOFT, THEY HAVE
NOT MOVED MUCH. HOWEVER, AS THE WEAK IMPULSE CONTINUES TO SIDE
EASTWARD THOUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, THESE SHOWERS WILL BEGIN
DRIFTING EASTWARD AND SHOULD BEGIN DISSIPATING.

HOWEVER, THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. VERTICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DRY LATER IN THE DAY AS THE
IMPULSE APPROACHES AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER SOUTH
INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INTERACT WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH PW VALUES NEAR 1.5
INCHES, THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS REALLY NO INSTABILITY EXPECTED TODAY,
SO WE DO NOT HAVE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, ALTHOUGH IT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE AN COUPLE OF ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES.

FOR HIGHS, USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB
TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX WILL BE MOVING THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN AREAS
THIS EVENING, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH. MEANWHILE, PW VALUES WILL BE DROPPING OFF QUITE SHARPLY AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THERE MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY IN THE
EVENING, BUT WHATEVER IS OUT THERE SHOULD DISSIPATE AND/OR MOVE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING, AND THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT SHOULD
BE RAIN FREE.

FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MANY CHANGES THROUGH MID WEEK FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
STILL EXPECTING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AS THE SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS OVER OUR REGION, AND IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A SHORT WAVE
RIDGE PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST OVER OUR REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
WITH THE COOLER AIR SETTLING IN ON SUNDAY, SHOULD START WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, BUT HAVE A STEADY WARMING TREND THROUGH MID
WEEK, ESPECIALLY AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY REMAINS THE PERIOD OF MOST INTEREST OVER
THE NEXT WEEK, BUT ALSO WITH THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY. THERE ARE
THREE FEATURES THAT WILL BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THAT
COULD HAVE BIG IMPACTS WITH OUR WEATHER IN THE LATE WEEK PERIODS.
FIRST...THE TOPICAL SYSTEM WHICH COULD DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WHILE NEARLY ALL OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE THIS SYSTEM
STAYING WELL OFF SHORE, AND THUS NOT DIRECTLY IMPACTING US, IT
COULD HELP TO WEAKEN THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, RESULTING IN AN INDIRECT IMPACT.
SECOND, THE SURFACE COLD FRONT, WHICH LONG RANGE MODELS EITHER
KEEP PUSHING BACK THE ARRIVAL IN OUR REGION, OR KEEP IT NORTH OF
US ALL TOGETHER. AT THIS POINT, IT STILL SEEMS LIKELY THAT THE
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR REGION, BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL FRIDAY
AS THE THIRD FEATURE, A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, SLIDES EAST OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALL THAT SAID, OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR
RAIN WILL COME WHEN THE FRONT ARRIVES, ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING
AND TRACK OF THE FRONT, HAVE KEPT POPS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD IN THE 20S AND 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TAF SITES REMAIN VFR AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, HOWEVER, WE STILL
EXPECT CIGS TO DROP TO MVFR BY DAYBREAK AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP, MAINLY FOR
ABE/RDG/TTN, ALTHOUGH THE OTHER SITES MAY DROP INTO THE LOW END OF
MVFR. ONCE THESE LOWER CIGS DEVELOP, WE EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN
THROUGH THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS, BEFORE AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR
THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE DAY, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND TIMING IS NOT HIGH, SO WE LEFT THEM OUT
OF THE AFTERNOON FORECAST; EXCEPT ABE/RDG THIS MORNING WHERE
SHOWERS ARE MORE IMMINENT. IF ANY SHOWERS DO OCCUR, THEY COULD BRIEFLY
REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE EAST TO NORTHEAST 5-10 KNOTS OR LESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN, AND HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE NEW JERSEY ATLANTIC COAST. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS THE EAST
TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW INCREASES. WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20-25 KNOTS
AS WELL LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EARLY IN THE DAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. THE MODERATE
RISK MAY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ452>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...ROBERTSON








000
FXUS61 KPHI 230734
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
334 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH OUT OF CANADA TOWARDS OUR
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER OUR
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK BEFORE IT WEAKENS. A COLD FRONT
COULD PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THERE HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
VORTICITY IMPULSE THAT HAVE REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO OUR
WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITHOUT MUCH FLOW ALOFT, THEY HAVE
NOT MOVED MUCH. HOWEVER, AS THE WEAK IMPULSE CONTINUES TO SIDE
EASTWARD THOUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, THESE SHOWERS WILL BEGIN
DRIFTING EASTWARD AND SHOULD BEGIN DISSIPATING.

HOWEVER, THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. VERTICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DRY LATER IN THE DAY AS THE
IMPULSE APPROACHES AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER SOUTH
INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INTERACT WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH PW VALUES NEAR 1.5
INCHES, THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS REALLY NO INSTABILITY EXPECTED TODAY,
SO WE DO NOT HAVE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, ALTHOUGH IT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE AN COUPLE OF ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES.

FOR HIGHS, USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB
TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX WILL BE MOVING THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN AREAS
THIS EVENING, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH. MEANWHILE, PW VALUES WILL BE DROPPING OFF QUITE SHARPLY AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THERE MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY IN THE
EVENING, BUT WHATEVER IS OUT THERE SHOULD DISSIPATE AND/OR MOVE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING, AND THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT SHOULD
BE RAIN FREE.

FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MANY CHANGES THROUGH MID WEEK FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
STILL EXPECTING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AS THE SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS OVER OUR REGION, AND IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A SHORT WAVE
RIDGE PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST OVER OUR REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
WITH THE COOLER AIR SETTLING IN ON SUNDAY, SHOULD START WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, BUT HAVE A STEADY WARMING TREND THROUGH MID
WEEK, ESPECIALLY AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY REMAINS THE PERIOD OF MOST INTEREST OVER
THE NEXT WEEK, BUT ALSO WITH THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY. THERE ARE
THREE FEATURES THAT WILL BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THAT
COULD HAVE BIG IMPACTS WITH OUR WEATHER IN THE LATE WEEK PERIODS.
FIRST...THE TOPICAL SYSTEM WHICH COULD DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WHILE NEARLY ALL OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE THIS SYSTEM
STAYING WELL OFF SHORE, AND THUS NOT DIRECTLY IMPACTING US, IT
COULD HELP TO WEAKEN THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, RESULTING IN AN INDIRECT IMPACT.
SECOND, THE SURFACE COLD FRONT, WHICH LONG RANGE MODELS EITHER
KEEP PUSHING BACK THE ARRIVAL IN OUR REGION, OR KEEP IT NORTH OF
US ALL TOGETHER. AT THIS POINT, IT STILL SEEMS LIKELY THAT THE
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR REGION, BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL FRIDAY
AS THE THIRD FEATURE, A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, SLIDES EAST OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALL THAT SAID, OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR
RAIN WILL COME WHEN THE FRONT ARRIVES, ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING
AND TRACK OF THE FRONT, HAVE KEPT POPS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD IN THE 20S AND 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TAF SITES REMAIN VFR AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, HOWEVER, WE STILL
EXPECT CIGS TO DROP TO MVFR BY DAYBREAK AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP, MAINLY FOR
ABE/RDG/TTN, ALTHOUGH THE OTHER SITES MAY DROP INTO THE LOW END OF
MVFR. ONCE THESE LOWER CIGS DEVELOP, WE EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN
THROUGH THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS, BEFORE AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR
THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE DAY, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND TIMING IS NOT HIGH, SO WE LEFT THEM OUT
OF THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. IF ANY SHOWERS DO OCCUR, THEY COULD
BRIEFLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE EAST TO NORTHEAST 5-10 KNOTS OR LESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN, AND HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE NEW JERSEY ATLANTIC COAST. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS THE EAST
TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW INCREASES. WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20-25 KNOTS
AS WELL LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EARLY IN THE DAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. THE MODERATE
RISK MAY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ452>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...ROBERTSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 230734
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
334 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH OUT OF CANADA TOWARDS OUR
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER OUR
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK BEFORE IT WEAKENS. A COLD FRONT
COULD PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THERE HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
VORTICITY IMPULSE THAT HAVE REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO OUR
WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITHOUT MUCH FLOW ALOFT, THEY HAVE
NOT MOVED MUCH. HOWEVER, AS THE WEAK IMPULSE CONTINUES TO SIDE
EASTWARD THOUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, THESE SHOWERS WILL BEGIN
DRIFTING EASTWARD AND SHOULD BEGIN DISSIPATING.

HOWEVER, THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. VERTICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DRY LATER IN THE DAY AS THE
IMPULSE APPROACHES AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER SOUTH
INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INTERACT WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH PW VALUES NEAR 1.5
INCHES, THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS REALLY NO INSTABILITY EXPECTED TODAY,
SO WE DO NOT HAVE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, ALTHOUGH IT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE AN COUPLE OF ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES.

FOR HIGHS, USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB
TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX WILL BE MOVING THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN AREAS
THIS EVENING, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH. MEANWHILE, PW VALUES WILL BE DROPPING OFF QUITE SHARPLY AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THERE MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY IN THE
EVENING, BUT WHATEVER IS OUT THERE SHOULD DISSIPATE AND/OR MOVE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING, AND THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT SHOULD
BE RAIN FREE.

FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MANY CHANGES THROUGH MID WEEK FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
STILL EXPECTING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AS THE SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS OVER OUR REGION, AND IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A SHORT WAVE
RIDGE PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST OVER OUR REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
WITH THE COOLER AIR SETTLING IN ON SUNDAY, SHOULD START WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, BUT HAVE A STEADY WARMING TREND THROUGH MID
WEEK, ESPECIALLY AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY REMAINS THE PERIOD OF MOST INTEREST OVER
THE NEXT WEEK, BUT ALSO WITH THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY. THERE ARE
THREE FEATURES THAT WILL BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THAT
COULD HAVE BIG IMPACTS WITH OUR WEATHER IN THE LATE WEEK PERIODS.
FIRST...THE TOPICAL SYSTEM WHICH COULD DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WHILE NEARLY ALL OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE THIS SYSTEM
STAYING WELL OFF SHORE, AND THUS NOT DIRECTLY IMPACTING US, IT
COULD HELP TO WEAKEN THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, RESULTING IN AN INDIRECT IMPACT.
SECOND, THE SURFACE COLD FRONT, WHICH LONG RANGE MODELS EITHER
KEEP PUSHING BACK THE ARRIVAL IN OUR REGION, OR KEEP IT NORTH OF
US ALL TOGETHER. AT THIS POINT, IT STILL SEEMS LIKELY THAT THE
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR REGION, BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL FRIDAY
AS THE THIRD FEATURE, A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, SLIDES EAST OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALL THAT SAID, OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR
RAIN WILL COME WHEN THE FRONT ARRIVES, ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING
AND TRACK OF THE FRONT, HAVE KEPT POPS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD IN THE 20S AND 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TAF SITES REMAIN VFR AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, HOWEVER, WE STILL
EXPECT CIGS TO DROP TO MVFR BY DAYBREAK AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP, MAINLY FOR
ABE/RDG/TTN, ALTHOUGH THE OTHER SITES MAY DROP INTO THE LOW END OF
MVFR. ONCE THESE LOWER CIGS DEVELOP, WE EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN
THROUGH THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS, BEFORE AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR
THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE DAY, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND TIMING IS NOT HIGH, SO WE LEFT THEM OUT
OF THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. IF ANY SHOWERS DO OCCUR, THEY COULD
BRIEFLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE EAST TO NORTHEAST 5-10 KNOTS OR LESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN, AND HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE NEW JERSEY ATLANTIC COAST. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS THE EAST
TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW INCREASES. WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20-25 KNOTS
AS WELL LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EARLY IN THE DAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. THE MODERATE
RISK MAY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ452>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...ROBERTSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 230734
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
334 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH OUT OF CANADA TOWARDS OUR
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER OUR
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK BEFORE IT WEAKENS. A COLD FRONT
COULD PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THERE HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
VORTICITY IMPULSE THAT HAVE REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO OUR
WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITHOUT MUCH FLOW ALOFT, THEY HAVE
NOT MOVED MUCH. HOWEVER, AS THE WEAK IMPULSE CONTINUES TO SIDE
EASTWARD THOUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, THESE SHOWERS WILL BEGIN
DRIFTING EASTWARD AND SHOULD BEGIN DISSIPATING.

HOWEVER, THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. VERTICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DRY LATER IN THE DAY AS THE
IMPULSE APPROACHES AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER SOUTH
INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INTERACT WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH PW VALUES NEAR 1.5
INCHES, THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS REALLY NO INSTABILITY EXPECTED TODAY,
SO WE DO NOT HAVE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, ALTHOUGH IT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE AN COUPLE OF ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES.

FOR HIGHS, USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB
TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX WILL BE MOVING THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN AREAS
THIS EVENING, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH. MEANWHILE, PW VALUES WILL BE DROPPING OFF QUITE SHARPLY AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THERE MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY IN THE
EVENING, BUT WHATEVER IS OUT THERE SHOULD DISSIPATE AND/OR MOVE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING, AND THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT SHOULD
BE RAIN FREE.

FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MANY CHANGES THROUGH MID WEEK FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
STILL EXPECTING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AS THE SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS OVER OUR REGION, AND IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A SHORT WAVE
RIDGE PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST OVER OUR REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
WITH THE COOLER AIR SETTLING IN ON SUNDAY, SHOULD START WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, BUT HAVE A STEADY WARMING TREND THROUGH MID
WEEK, ESPECIALLY AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY REMAINS THE PERIOD OF MOST INTEREST OVER
THE NEXT WEEK, BUT ALSO WITH THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY. THERE ARE
THREE FEATURES THAT WILL BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THAT
COULD HAVE BIG IMPACTS WITH OUR WEATHER IN THE LATE WEEK PERIODS.
FIRST...THE TOPICAL SYSTEM WHICH COULD DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WHILE NEARLY ALL OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE THIS SYSTEM
STAYING WELL OFF SHORE, AND THUS NOT DIRECTLY IMPACTING US, IT
COULD HELP TO WEAKEN THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, RESULTING IN AN INDIRECT IMPACT.
SECOND, THE SURFACE COLD FRONT, WHICH LONG RANGE MODELS EITHER
KEEP PUSHING BACK THE ARRIVAL IN OUR REGION, OR KEEP IT NORTH OF
US ALL TOGETHER. AT THIS POINT, IT STILL SEEMS LIKELY THAT THE
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR REGION, BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL FRIDAY
AS THE THIRD FEATURE, A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, SLIDES EAST OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALL THAT SAID, OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR
RAIN WILL COME WHEN THE FRONT ARRIVES, ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING
AND TRACK OF THE FRONT, HAVE KEPT POPS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD IN THE 20S AND 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TAF SITES REMAIN VFR AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, HOWEVER, WE STILL
EXPECT CIGS TO DROP TO MVFR BY DAYBREAK AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP, MAINLY FOR
ABE/RDG/TTN, ALTHOUGH THE OTHER SITES MAY DROP INTO THE LOW END OF
MVFR. ONCE THESE LOWER CIGS DEVELOP, WE EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN
THROUGH THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS, BEFORE AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR
THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE DAY, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND TIMING IS NOT HIGH, SO WE LEFT THEM OUT
OF THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. IF ANY SHOWERS DO OCCUR, THEY COULD
BRIEFLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE EAST TO NORTHEAST 5-10 KNOTS OR LESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN, AND HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE NEW JERSEY ATLANTIC COAST. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS THE EAST
TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW INCREASES. WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20-25 KNOTS
AS WELL LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EARLY IN THE DAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. THE MODERATE
RISK MAY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ452>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...ROBERTSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 230734
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
334 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH OUT OF CANADA TOWARDS OUR
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER OUR
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK BEFORE IT WEAKENS. A COLD FRONT
COULD PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THERE HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
VORTICITY IMPULSE THAT HAVE REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO OUR
WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITHOUT MUCH FLOW ALOFT, THEY HAVE
NOT MOVED MUCH. HOWEVER, AS THE WEAK IMPULSE CONTINUES TO SIDE
EASTWARD THOUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, THESE SHOWERS WILL BEGIN
DRIFTING EASTWARD AND SHOULD BEGIN DISSIPATING.

HOWEVER, THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. VERTICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DRY LATER IN THE DAY AS THE
IMPULSE APPROACHES AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER SOUTH
INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INTERACT WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH PW VALUES NEAR 1.5
INCHES, THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS REALLY NO INSTABILITY EXPECTED TODAY,
SO WE DO NOT HAVE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, ALTHOUGH IT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE AN COUPLE OF ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES.

FOR HIGHS, USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB
TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX WILL BE MOVING THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN AREAS
THIS EVENING, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH. MEANWHILE, PW VALUES WILL BE DROPPING OFF QUITE SHARPLY AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THERE MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY IN THE
EVENING, BUT WHATEVER IS OUT THERE SHOULD DISSIPATE AND/OR MOVE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING, AND THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT SHOULD
BE RAIN FREE.

FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MANY CHANGES THROUGH MID WEEK FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
STILL EXPECTING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AS THE SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS OVER OUR REGION, AND IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A SHORT WAVE
RIDGE PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST OVER OUR REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
WITH THE COOLER AIR SETTLING IN ON SUNDAY, SHOULD START WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, BUT HAVE A STEADY WARMING TREND THROUGH MID
WEEK, ESPECIALLY AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY REMAINS THE PERIOD OF MOST INTEREST OVER
THE NEXT WEEK, BUT ALSO WITH THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY. THERE ARE
THREE FEATURES THAT WILL BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THAT
COULD HAVE BIG IMPACTS WITH OUR WEATHER IN THE LATE WEEK PERIODS.
FIRST...THE TOPICAL SYSTEM WHICH COULD DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WHILE NEARLY ALL OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE THIS SYSTEM
STAYING WELL OFF SHORE, AND THUS NOT DIRECTLY IMPACTING US, IT
COULD HELP TO WEAKEN THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, RESULTING IN AN INDIRECT IMPACT.
SECOND, THE SURFACE COLD FRONT, WHICH LONG RANGE MODELS EITHER
KEEP PUSHING BACK THE ARRIVAL IN OUR REGION, OR KEEP IT NORTH OF
US ALL TOGETHER. AT THIS POINT, IT STILL SEEMS LIKELY THAT THE
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR REGION, BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL FRIDAY
AS THE THIRD FEATURE, A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, SLIDES EAST OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALL THAT SAID, OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR
RAIN WILL COME WHEN THE FRONT ARRIVES, ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING
AND TRACK OF THE FRONT, HAVE KEPT POPS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD IN THE 20S AND 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TAF SITES REMAIN VFR AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, HOWEVER, WE STILL
EXPECT CIGS TO DROP TO MVFR BY DAYBREAK AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP, MAINLY FOR
ABE/RDG/TTN, ALTHOUGH THE OTHER SITES MAY DROP INTO THE LOW END OF
MVFR. ONCE THESE LOWER CIGS DEVELOP, WE EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN
THROUGH THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS, BEFORE AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR
THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE DAY, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND TIMING IS NOT HIGH, SO WE LEFT THEM OUT
OF THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. IF ANY SHOWERS DO OCCUR, THEY COULD
BRIEFLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE EAST TO NORTHEAST 5-10 KNOTS OR LESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN, AND HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE NEW JERSEY ATLANTIC COAST. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS THE EAST
TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW INCREASES. WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20-25 KNOTS
AS WELL LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EARLY IN THE DAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. THE MODERATE
RISK MAY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ452>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...ROBERTSON







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230523
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
123 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND SLOWLY
BUILDS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE SETTLING
OVER THE PIEDMONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 01Z...PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OUT OF CWA. WIDELY SCTD SHWRS
PERSIST JUST WEST OF CWA...AND MAY MOVE INTO PTNS OF THE PIEDMONT
LATER THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...THINK RISK FOR SHWRS/TSTMS HAS
DECREASED CWA-WIDE...AND HAVE THUS LOWERED POPS EVERYWHERE. WAS
TEMPTED TO KEEP NE HALF OF CWA DRY OVERNIGHT...BUT 18Z NAM WOULD
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHWRS PERSISTS. SO
HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT CHC NE HALF...WITH NO HIGHER THAN 40 PCT POPS
EXTREME SW. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT...AND THIS
SHOULD INHIBIT FOG FORMATION ACROSS THE DELMARVA...WHERE SOME
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...TREND
HAS BEEN FOR DEW PTS TO FALL OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS
THE LWR MD EASTERN SHORE...WHICH ALSO ARGUES FOR LESS FOG
POTENTIAL. MIN TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S/ARND 70 LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
CHC POPS ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
SATURDAY AS THE REMNANT BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR THE LOCAL AREA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WILL BE CONFINED AWAY FROM THE COASTS DUE TO
ENE FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE HIGH
SURGES SSW OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS SETTLING OVER THE PIEDMONT BY MONDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A
DRYING TREND ALONG WITH A NE WIND THAT SHOULD BE RATHER BREEZY ALONG
THE COAST. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.

HIGHS WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
(AROUND -1 ST DEV). SATURDAY HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 80-85 (UPPER 70S
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST)...WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
LOW/MID 60S EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
IS EXPECTED TO KEEP TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY WELL OFF THE COAST BY
ABOUT 500-600 MILES. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A COOLER AIRMASS
OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED BEFORE THE RIDGE AXES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT
ALOFT BEGIN TO SHIFT JUST EAST OF THE FA...AND MOVING OFFSHORE BY
THU. THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIODS DUE TO WELL-ESTABLISHED SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILE...HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE FAR SE
VA/NE NC COAST ON WED DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR WRAPAROUND MOISTURE
FROM THE TROPICAL SYSTEM PASSING WELL TO THE EAST. HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL FROM MON NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT
(LOWS IN THE 60S...UPPER 50S FAR WRN COUNTIES/HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
80S...MID-UPPER 70S BEACHES) AND THEN REBOUND TWD SEASONAL NORMALS
THU/THU NIGHT (HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S...UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S
BEACHES/LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S...AROUND 70 BEACHES).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE FA WITH HIGH PRS
BUILDING SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND. LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWING NEXT
BAND OF SHWRS MOVG SE ALONG I64 CORRIDOR WITH LATEST SHORT RANGE
MODELS INDCTG THESE MAKING IT INTO CNTRL VA NEXT SVRL HRS. THUS
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP IN RIC ERLY THIS MORNING.

NEXT IMPULSE PROGGED TO TRACK SE AFTER 12Z AFFECTING RIC / SBY
AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. GOOD CONFIDENCE BTWN THE MODELS
OF THIS OCCURRING SO INCLUDED A FEW HRS OF (MVFR) RAIN AT THOSE
SITES. CHALLENGING PART OF FCST WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT CIGS DROP
BELOW 1K FT THRU 12Z DUE TO E-NE FLOW OFF THE OCEAN. FOG NOT THAT
MUCH OF A CHALLENGE AS CIGS ARE.

CIGS BARELY RISE INTO VFR RANGE AS TSCTNS SHOW PLNTY OF MOISTUTE
ARND THE AREA FOR A BKN SC DECK (3-4K FT) THRU MUCH OF THE FCST
PRD WITH MVFR CIGS RETURNING AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PSBL DUE TO STRATUS/FOG SUN MORNING.
OTW...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEGINNING SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES ISSUED FOR COASTAL WATERS AND SRN CHES BAY SAT AFTN
THROUGH SUN.

A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SWD ACROSS THE SRN
WATERS TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. MEANWHILE...A
WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
SAT. NLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WILL BE COMMON AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THEN THEY WILL TURN TO THE N-NE BEHIND IT AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES DOWN OVER THE WATERS. A PERIOD OF PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS
WILL RESULT IN PROLONGED SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND
SRN CHES BAY...MAINLY DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS/WAVES (4-5FT/3-4FT
RESPECTIVELY). WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-20KT OCEAN AND 10-15KT
BAY/RIVERS/SOUND. GUSTS MAY REACH 25 KT AT TIMES OVER COASTAL
WATERS BUT MAIN FOCUS OF SCA WILL BE ON SEAS OF 5 FT. GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FETCH...IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SEAS TO REACH 6 FT
NEAR BUOY 44009 SAT EVENING DURING A WEAK PUSH OF CAA. CURRITUCK
SOUND AND THE MOUTH OF THE JAMES RIVER MAY BE EXPERIENCE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA WINDS (15-20KT) ON SUN FROM DAYBREAK UNTIL
SUNSET BUT DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES FOR THESE AREAS FOR
NOW. ALTHOUGH CURRENT HEADLINES END AT 8PM SUN NIGHT...THERE IS A
VERY GOOD CHANCE THAT SCA FLAGS WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH MON. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON/TUE BUT A TROPICAL SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ABOUT 500-600 MILES E-SE OF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST DURING THIS TIME. SWELL FROM THIS SYSTEM...IN ADDITION TO
CONTINUED ONSHORE WINDS...COULD KEEP SEAS ELEVATED THROUGH MON
BEFORE SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ656-
     658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LSA
NEAR TERM...AJZ/WRS
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...BMD/LSA







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230523
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
123 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND SLOWLY
BUILDS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE SETTLING
OVER THE PIEDMONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 01Z...PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OUT OF CWA. WIDELY SCTD SHWRS
PERSIST JUST WEST OF CWA...AND MAY MOVE INTO PTNS OF THE PIEDMONT
LATER THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...THINK RISK FOR SHWRS/TSTMS HAS
DECREASED CWA-WIDE...AND HAVE THUS LOWERED POPS EVERYWHERE. WAS
TEMPTED TO KEEP NE HALF OF CWA DRY OVERNIGHT...BUT 18Z NAM WOULD
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHWRS PERSISTS. SO
HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT CHC NE HALF...WITH NO HIGHER THAN 40 PCT POPS
EXTREME SW. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT...AND THIS
SHOULD INHIBIT FOG FORMATION ACROSS THE DELMARVA...WHERE SOME
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...TREND
HAS BEEN FOR DEW PTS TO FALL OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS
THE LWR MD EASTERN SHORE...WHICH ALSO ARGUES FOR LESS FOG
POTENTIAL. MIN TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S/ARND 70 LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
CHC POPS ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
SATURDAY AS THE REMNANT BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR THE LOCAL AREA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WILL BE CONFINED AWAY FROM THE COASTS DUE TO
ENE FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE HIGH
SURGES SSW OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS SETTLING OVER THE PIEDMONT BY MONDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A
DRYING TREND ALONG WITH A NE WIND THAT SHOULD BE RATHER BREEZY ALONG
THE COAST. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.

HIGHS WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
(AROUND -1 ST DEV). SATURDAY HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 80-85 (UPPER 70S
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST)...WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
LOW/MID 60S EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
IS EXPECTED TO KEEP TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY WELL OFF THE COAST BY
ABOUT 500-600 MILES. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A COOLER AIRMASS
OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED BEFORE THE RIDGE AXES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT
ALOFT BEGIN TO SHIFT JUST EAST OF THE FA...AND MOVING OFFSHORE BY
THU. THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIODS DUE TO WELL-ESTABLISHED SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILE...HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE FAR SE
VA/NE NC COAST ON WED DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR WRAPAROUND MOISTURE
FROM THE TROPICAL SYSTEM PASSING WELL TO THE EAST. HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL FROM MON NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT
(LOWS IN THE 60S...UPPER 50S FAR WRN COUNTIES/HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
80S...MID-UPPER 70S BEACHES) AND THEN REBOUND TWD SEASONAL NORMALS
THU/THU NIGHT (HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S...UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S
BEACHES/LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S...AROUND 70 BEACHES).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE FA WITH HIGH PRS
BUILDING SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND. LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWING NEXT
BAND OF SHWRS MOVG SE ALONG I64 CORRIDOR WITH LATEST SHORT RANGE
MODELS INDCTG THESE MAKING IT INTO CNTRL VA NEXT SVRL HRS. THUS
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP IN RIC ERLY THIS MORNING.

NEXT IMPULSE PROGGED TO TRACK SE AFTER 12Z AFFECTING RIC / SBY
AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. GOOD CONFIDENCE BTWN THE MODELS
OF THIS OCCURRING SO INCLUDED A FEW HRS OF (MVFR) RAIN AT THOSE
SITES. CHALLENGING PART OF FCST WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT CIGS DROP
BELOW 1K FT THRU 12Z DUE TO E-NE FLOW OFF THE OCEAN. FOG NOT THAT
MUCH OF A CHALLENGE AS CIGS ARE.

CIGS BARELY RISE INTO VFR RANGE AS TSCTNS SHOW PLNTY OF MOISTUTE
ARND THE AREA FOR A BKN SC DECK (3-4K FT) THRU MUCH OF THE FCST
PRD WITH MVFR CIGS RETURNING AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PSBL DUE TO STRATUS/FOG SUN MORNING.
OTW...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEGINNING SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES ISSUED FOR COASTAL WATERS AND SRN CHES BAY SAT AFTN
THROUGH SUN.

A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SWD ACROSS THE SRN
WATERS TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. MEANWHILE...A
WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
SAT. NLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WILL BE COMMON AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THEN THEY WILL TURN TO THE N-NE BEHIND IT AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES DOWN OVER THE WATERS. A PERIOD OF PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS
WILL RESULT IN PROLONGED SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND
SRN CHES BAY...MAINLY DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS/WAVES (4-5FT/3-4FT
RESPECTIVELY). WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-20KT OCEAN AND 10-15KT
BAY/RIVERS/SOUND. GUSTS MAY REACH 25 KT AT TIMES OVER COASTAL
WATERS BUT MAIN FOCUS OF SCA WILL BE ON SEAS OF 5 FT. GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FETCH...IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SEAS TO REACH 6 FT
NEAR BUOY 44009 SAT EVENING DURING A WEAK PUSH OF CAA. CURRITUCK
SOUND AND THE MOUTH OF THE JAMES RIVER MAY BE EXPERIENCE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA WINDS (15-20KT) ON SUN FROM DAYBREAK UNTIL
SUNSET BUT DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES FOR THESE AREAS FOR
NOW. ALTHOUGH CURRENT HEADLINES END AT 8PM SUN NIGHT...THERE IS A
VERY GOOD CHANCE THAT SCA FLAGS WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH MON. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON/TUE BUT A TROPICAL SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ABOUT 500-600 MILES E-SE OF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST DURING THIS TIME. SWELL FROM THIS SYSTEM...IN ADDITION TO
CONTINUED ONSHORE WINDS...COULD KEEP SEAS ELEVATED THROUGH MON
BEFORE SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ656-
     658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LSA
NEAR TERM...AJZ/WRS
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...BMD/LSA







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230523
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
123 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND SLOWLY
BUILDS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE SETTLING
OVER THE PIEDMONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 01Z...PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OUT OF CWA. WIDELY SCTD SHWRS
PERSIST JUST WEST OF CWA...AND MAY MOVE INTO PTNS OF THE PIEDMONT
LATER THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...THINK RISK FOR SHWRS/TSTMS HAS
DECREASED CWA-WIDE...AND HAVE THUS LOWERED POPS EVERYWHERE. WAS
TEMPTED TO KEEP NE HALF OF CWA DRY OVERNIGHT...BUT 18Z NAM WOULD
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHWRS PERSISTS. SO
HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT CHC NE HALF...WITH NO HIGHER THAN 40 PCT POPS
EXTREME SW. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT...AND THIS
SHOULD INHIBIT FOG FORMATION ACROSS THE DELMARVA...WHERE SOME
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...TREND
HAS BEEN FOR DEW PTS TO FALL OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS
THE LWR MD EASTERN SHORE...WHICH ALSO ARGUES FOR LESS FOG
POTENTIAL. MIN TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S/ARND 70 LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
CHC POPS ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
SATURDAY AS THE REMNANT BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR THE LOCAL AREA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WILL BE CONFINED AWAY FROM THE COASTS DUE TO
ENE FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE HIGH
SURGES SSW OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS SETTLING OVER THE PIEDMONT BY MONDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A
DRYING TREND ALONG WITH A NE WIND THAT SHOULD BE RATHER BREEZY ALONG
THE COAST. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.

HIGHS WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
(AROUND -1 ST DEV). SATURDAY HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 80-85 (UPPER 70S
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST)...WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
LOW/MID 60S EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
IS EXPECTED TO KEEP TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY WELL OFF THE COAST BY
ABOUT 500-600 MILES. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A COOLER AIRMASS
OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED BEFORE THE RIDGE AXES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT
ALOFT BEGIN TO SHIFT JUST EAST OF THE FA...AND MOVING OFFSHORE BY
THU. THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIODS DUE TO WELL-ESTABLISHED SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILE...HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE FAR SE
VA/NE NC COAST ON WED DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR WRAPAROUND MOISTURE
FROM THE TROPICAL SYSTEM PASSING WELL TO THE EAST. HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL FROM MON NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT
(LOWS IN THE 60S...UPPER 50S FAR WRN COUNTIES/HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
80S...MID-UPPER 70S BEACHES) AND THEN REBOUND TWD SEASONAL NORMALS
THU/THU NIGHT (HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S...UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S
BEACHES/LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S...AROUND 70 BEACHES).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE FA WITH HIGH PRS
BUILDING SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND. LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWING NEXT
BAND OF SHWRS MOVG SE ALONG I64 CORRIDOR WITH LATEST SHORT RANGE
MODELS INDCTG THESE MAKING IT INTO CNTRL VA NEXT SVRL HRS. THUS
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP IN RIC ERLY THIS MORNING.

NEXT IMPULSE PROGGED TO TRACK SE AFTER 12Z AFFECTING RIC / SBY
AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. GOOD CONFIDENCE BTWN THE MODELS
OF THIS OCCURRING SO INCLUDED A FEW HRS OF (MVFR) RAIN AT THOSE
SITES. CHALLENGING PART OF FCST WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT CIGS DROP
BELOW 1K FT THRU 12Z DUE TO E-NE FLOW OFF THE OCEAN. FOG NOT THAT
MUCH OF A CHALLENGE AS CIGS ARE.

CIGS BARELY RISE INTO VFR RANGE AS TSCTNS SHOW PLNTY OF MOISTUTE
ARND THE AREA FOR A BKN SC DECK (3-4K FT) THRU MUCH OF THE FCST
PRD WITH MVFR CIGS RETURNING AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PSBL DUE TO STRATUS/FOG SUN MORNING.
OTW...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEGINNING SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES ISSUED FOR COASTAL WATERS AND SRN CHES BAY SAT AFTN
THROUGH SUN.

A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SWD ACROSS THE SRN
WATERS TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. MEANWHILE...A
WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
SAT. NLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WILL BE COMMON AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THEN THEY WILL TURN TO THE N-NE BEHIND IT AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES DOWN OVER THE WATERS. A PERIOD OF PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS
WILL RESULT IN PROLONGED SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND
SRN CHES BAY...MAINLY DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS/WAVES (4-5FT/3-4FT
RESPECTIVELY). WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-20KT OCEAN AND 10-15KT
BAY/RIVERS/SOUND. GUSTS MAY REACH 25 KT AT TIMES OVER COASTAL
WATERS BUT MAIN FOCUS OF SCA WILL BE ON SEAS OF 5 FT. GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FETCH...IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SEAS TO REACH 6 FT
NEAR BUOY 44009 SAT EVENING DURING A WEAK PUSH OF CAA. CURRITUCK
SOUND AND THE MOUTH OF THE JAMES RIVER MAY BE EXPERIENCE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA WINDS (15-20KT) ON SUN FROM DAYBREAK UNTIL
SUNSET BUT DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES FOR THESE AREAS FOR
NOW. ALTHOUGH CURRENT HEADLINES END AT 8PM SUN NIGHT...THERE IS A
VERY GOOD CHANCE THAT SCA FLAGS WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH MON. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON/TUE BUT A TROPICAL SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ABOUT 500-600 MILES E-SE OF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST DURING THIS TIME. SWELL FROM THIS SYSTEM...IN ADDITION TO
CONTINUED ONSHORE WINDS...COULD KEEP SEAS ELEVATED THROUGH MON
BEFORE SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ656-
     658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LSA
NEAR TERM...AJZ/WRS
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...BMD/LSA







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230523
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
123 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND SLOWLY
BUILDS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE SETTLING
OVER THE PIEDMONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 01Z...PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OUT OF CWA. WIDELY SCTD SHWRS
PERSIST JUST WEST OF CWA...AND MAY MOVE INTO PTNS OF THE PIEDMONT
LATER THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...THINK RISK FOR SHWRS/TSTMS HAS
DECREASED CWA-WIDE...AND HAVE THUS LOWERED POPS EVERYWHERE. WAS
TEMPTED TO KEEP NE HALF OF CWA DRY OVERNIGHT...BUT 18Z NAM WOULD
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHWRS PERSISTS. SO
HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT CHC NE HALF...WITH NO HIGHER THAN 40 PCT POPS
EXTREME SW. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT...AND THIS
SHOULD INHIBIT FOG FORMATION ACROSS THE DELMARVA...WHERE SOME
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...TREND
HAS BEEN FOR DEW PTS TO FALL OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS
THE LWR MD EASTERN SHORE...WHICH ALSO ARGUES FOR LESS FOG
POTENTIAL. MIN TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S/ARND 70 LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
CHC POPS ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
SATURDAY AS THE REMNANT BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR THE LOCAL AREA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WILL BE CONFINED AWAY FROM THE COASTS DUE TO
ENE FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE HIGH
SURGES SSW OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS SETTLING OVER THE PIEDMONT BY MONDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A
DRYING TREND ALONG WITH A NE WIND THAT SHOULD BE RATHER BREEZY ALONG
THE COAST. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.

HIGHS WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
(AROUND -1 ST DEV). SATURDAY HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 80-85 (UPPER 70S
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST)...WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
LOW/MID 60S EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
IS EXPECTED TO KEEP TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY WELL OFF THE COAST BY
ABOUT 500-600 MILES. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A COOLER AIRMASS
OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED BEFORE THE RIDGE AXES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT
ALOFT BEGIN TO SHIFT JUST EAST OF THE FA...AND MOVING OFFSHORE BY
THU. THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIODS DUE TO WELL-ESTABLISHED SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILE...HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE FAR SE
VA/NE NC COAST ON WED DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR WRAPAROUND MOISTURE
FROM THE TROPICAL SYSTEM PASSING WELL TO THE EAST. HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL FROM MON NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT
(LOWS IN THE 60S...UPPER 50S FAR WRN COUNTIES/HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
80S...MID-UPPER 70S BEACHES) AND THEN REBOUND TWD SEASONAL NORMALS
THU/THU NIGHT (HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S...UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S
BEACHES/LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S...AROUND 70 BEACHES).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE FA WITH HIGH PRS
BUILDING SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND. LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWING NEXT
BAND OF SHWRS MOVG SE ALONG I64 CORRIDOR WITH LATEST SHORT RANGE
MODELS INDCTG THESE MAKING IT INTO CNTRL VA NEXT SVRL HRS. THUS
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP IN RIC ERLY THIS MORNING.

NEXT IMPULSE PROGGED TO TRACK SE AFTER 12Z AFFECTING RIC / SBY
AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. GOOD CONFIDENCE BTWN THE MODELS
OF THIS OCCURRING SO INCLUDED A FEW HRS OF (MVFR) RAIN AT THOSE
SITES. CHALLENGING PART OF FCST WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT CIGS DROP
BELOW 1K FT THRU 12Z DUE TO E-NE FLOW OFF THE OCEAN. FOG NOT THAT
MUCH OF A CHALLENGE AS CIGS ARE.

CIGS BARELY RISE INTO VFR RANGE AS TSCTNS SHOW PLNTY OF MOISTUTE
ARND THE AREA FOR A BKN SC DECK (3-4K FT) THRU MUCH OF THE FCST
PRD WITH MVFR CIGS RETURNING AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PSBL DUE TO STRATUS/FOG SUN MORNING.
OTW...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEGINNING SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES ISSUED FOR COASTAL WATERS AND SRN CHES BAY SAT AFTN
THROUGH SUN.

A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SWD ACROSS THE SRN
WATERS TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. MEANWHILE...A
WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
SAT. NLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WILL BE COMMON AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THEN THEY WILL TURN TO THE N-NE BEHIND IT AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES DOWN OVER THE WATERS. A PERIOD OF PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS
WILL RESULT IN PROLONGED SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND
SRN CHES BAY...MAINLY DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS/WAVES (4-5FT/3-4FT
RESPECTIVELY). WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-20KT OCEAN AND 10-15KT
BAY/RIVERS/SOUND. GUSTS MAY REACH 25 KT AT TIMES OVER COASTAL
WATERS BUT MAIN FOCUS OF SCA WILL BE ON SEAS OF 5 FT. GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FETCH...IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SEAS TO REACH 6 FT
NEAR BUOY 44009 SAT EVENING DURING A WEAK PUSH OF CAA. CURRITUCK
SOUND AND THE MOUTH OF THE JAMES RIVER MAY BE EXPERIENCE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA WINDS (15-20KT) ON SUN FROM DAYBREAK UNTIL
SUNSET BUT DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES FOR THESE AREAS FOR
NOW. ALTHOUGH CURRENT HEADLINES END AT 8PM SUN NIGHT...THERE IS A
VERY GOOD CHANCE THAT SCA FLAGS WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH MON. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON/TUE BUT A TROPICAL SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ABOUT 500-600 MILES E-SE OF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST DURING THIS TIME. SWELL FROM THIS SYSTEM...IN ADDITION TO
CONTINUED ONSHORE WINDS...COULD KEEP SEAS ELEVATED THROUGH MON
BEFORE SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ656-
     658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LSA
NEAR TERM...AJZ/WRS
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...BMD/LSA







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230208 AAD
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1008 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WARM AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
10PM UPDATE...SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE TO STUBBORNLY
DRIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. THE OVERALL TREND HAS
BEEN A WEAKENING IN INTENSITY...BUT WITH SURFACE TDS IN THE LOWER
70S...RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN IMPRESSIVE. LATEST HIRES DATA IS
SHOWING A DECREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AS
EVERYTHING SHIFTS SOUTHWARD. TEMPS UPDATED TO LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STILL INCREASE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY FINALLY SAGS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. LINGERING CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT CAPE
VALUES RATHER LOW TODAY...EVEN WITH BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO NEAR
30 KTS. WITH THIS IN MIND...OPTED TO KEEP ONLY CHANCE THUNDER
WORDING...AND THINK THAT FOR THE MOST PART STORMS WILL REMAIN
UNDER SEVERE THRESHOLDS.

WHILE PWATS IN OUR SOUTHERNMOST ZONES WILL STILL BE IN THE 2 INCH
RANGE...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THESE VALUES IS EXPECTED. WILL
MAINTAIN THE MENTION FOR ISOLATED FLOODING IN THE HWO SINCE ANY
TRAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER ALREADY SATURATED AREAS COULD
CAUSE PROBLEMS...BUT OVERALL THINK THE THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL
VERSUS THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.

LOSS OF HEATING AS WELL AS SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF FRONT WILL
ALLOW COVERAGE TO WANE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE TOMORROW. WITH THE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ONLY CHANCE POPS WERE
CARRIED. GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES...WHICH KEEPS US CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN EXITING SHRTWV WL CONT LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS INTO SAT NGT...THEN
STG RIDGING WL BLD IN ACRS THE GT LKS/OH VLY RGN THRU MON WITH DRY
WEA EXPD. TEMPS WL AVG A FEW DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING WL PERSIST INTO MID WK WITH DRY AND WRM WEA. A CROSSING
SHRTWV AND CDFNT IS PROGGED FOR A THU PASSAGE WITH CHC POPS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS...FOLLOWED BY BLDG HIGH PRES TO FINISH THE WK. ABV AVG
TEMPS WL RTN TO NR OR BLO AVG LVLS AFT THE LT WK FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINTAINED A VCSH MENTION WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR AT KMGW AND KDUJ
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. AFTER DIURNAL SHWRS SUBSIDE...WITH LLVL
MOISTURE POOLING...EXPG IFR FOG TO DVLP OVRNGT INTO ERLY SAT AS
WELL. A PD OF MVFR DIURNAL CU CIGS ARE EXPD SAT MRNG BEFORE VFR
RTNS BY AFTN. A SHWR IS PSBL SAT BUT COVG EXPD TO BE TOO LOW FOR A
TAF MENTION ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ERLY SUN MRNG FOG RSTRNS ARE PSBL.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230208 AAD
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1008 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WARM AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
10PM UPDATE...SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE TO STUBBORNLY
DRIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. THE OVERALL TREND HAS
BEEN A WEAKENING IN INTENSITY...BUT WITH SURFACE TDS IN THE LOWER
70S...RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN IMPRESSIVE. LATEST HIRES DATA IS
SHOWING A DECREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AS
EVERYTHING SHIFTS SOUTHWARD. TEMPS UPDATED TO LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STILL INCREASE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY FINALLY SAGS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. LINGERING CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT CAPE
VALUES RATHER LOW TODAY...EVEN WITH BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO NEAR
30 KTS. WITH THIS IN MIND...OPTED TO KEEP ONLY CHANCE THUNDER
WORDING...AND THINK THAT FOR THE MOST PART STORMS WILL REMAIN
UNDER SEVERE THRESHOLDS.

WHILE PWATS IN OUR SOUTHERNMOST ZONES WILL STILL BE IN THE 2 INCH
RANGE...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THESE VALUES IS EXPECTED. WILL
MAINTAIN THE MENTION FOR ISOLATED FLOODING IN THE HWO SINCE ANY
TRAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER ALREADY SATURATED AREAS COULD
CAUSE PROBLEMS...BUT OVERALL THINK THE THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL
VERSUS THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.

LOSS OF HEATING AS WELL AS SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF FRONT WILL
ALLOW COVERAGE TO WANE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE TOMORROW. WITH THE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ONLY CHANCE POPS WERE
CARRIED. GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES...WHICH KEEPS US CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN EXITING SHRTWV WL CONT LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS INTO SAT NGT...THEN
STG RIDGING WL BLD IN ACRS THE GT LKS/OH VLY RGN THRU MON WITH DRY
WEA EXPD. TEMPS WL AVG A FEW DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING WL PERSIST INTO MID WK WITH DRY AND WRM WEA. A CROSSING
SHRTWV AND CDFNT IS PROGGED FOR A THU PASSAGE WITH CHC POPS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS...FOLLOWED BY BLDG HIGH PRES TO FINISH THE WK. ABV AVG
TEMPS WL RTN TO NR OR BLO AVG LVLS AFT THE LT WK FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINTAINED A VCSH MENTION WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR AT KMGW AND KDUJ
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. AFTER DIURNAL SHWRS SUBSIDE...WITH LLVL
MOISTURE POOLING...EXPG IFR FOG TO DVLP OVRNGT INTO ERLY SAT AS
WELL. A PD OF MVFR DIURNAL CU CIGS ARE EXPD SAT MRNG BEFORE VFR
RTNS BY AFTN. A SHWR IS PSBL SAT BUT COVG EXPD TO BE TOO LOW FOR A
TAF MENTION ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ERLY SUN MRNG FOG RSTRNS ARE PSBL.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KLWX 230128
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
928 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTHWEST FROM NEW ENGLAND...WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CENTER OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 01Z...LONGWAVE RIDGE IS ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS WITH THE AXIS
JUST WEST OF THE MS RIVER. 1023MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER
LABRADOR WITH A SFC RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC.
THIS IS RESULTING IN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND ONSHORE FLOW EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND (AND THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY). LOW CLOUDS SPREAD WEST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

WITH STABLE ONSHORE FLOW...THE ONLY CAPE REMAINING IS WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE AND DIMINISHING. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND VICINITY
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING.

MIN TEMPS MID 60S INLAND (THE ONSHORE FLOW IS ACTUALLY DRIER THAN
THE CURRENT AIR)...AROUND 70F FOR NEARSHORE URBAN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE AIR MASS OVER THE MID ATLC WL RMN MOIST SAT...HENCE SKIES WL
AGN HV PLENTY OF CLDS W/ CHCS FOR RW IN THE MRNG THRU MIDDAY. HIGH
PRES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST WL BEGIN BLDG INTO THE MID ATLC DURG
THE AFTN. THIS COULD TRIGGER SOME LTNG BUT NOT XPCTG A SVR THREAT.
SKIES COULD BEGIN CLRG IN NERN MD BY LATE AFTN.

LATE AUG HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE M80S. XPCT TEMPS TO BE A FEW
DEGS BLO THAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOUTHWARD MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH REINFORCING
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE BEFORE THE FROPA ALONG WITH UPSLOPE FLOW
AND UPPER TROUGH ENERGY SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS
MAINLY THE BLUE RIDGE AND POTOMAC HIGHLAND SUNDAY NIGHT.
DRIER/COOLER AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOR
SUNDAY.

POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN DOMINATE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK WITH SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY. POSITION OF UPPER FLOW LOOKS TO KEEP ANY
TROPICAL SYSTEM ACTIVITY OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC NEXT WEEK AS
WELL.

RETURN FLOW SETS IN WITH TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL FOR THURSDAY
AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CONUS. THIS DEEPENING TROUGH DRAGS A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH FRIDAY
LOOKING TO BE BACK IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S ATTM. DEEP-LAYER WIND
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION
WITH THIS COLD FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVC AND MVFR/IFR CIGS XPCTD TO SPREAD WEST ACROSS THE TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS HOLD ON MUCH OF SATURDAY WITH SOME RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SKIES CLEAR FROM INCREASING HIGH
PRESSURE SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE/VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT ONSHORE FLOW...CHANCE OF SCA
LOW...BUT WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15 KT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WOULD
NOT BE A SURPRISE TO SEE STRONGER GUSTS AT TIMES...REQUIRED
STATEMENTS AND ADVISORIES.

COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE BAY SATURDAY NIGHT.
WINDS LOOK TO STAY BELOW SCA LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...JACKSON
PREVIOUS...WOODY!/AEB





000
FXUS61 KLWX 230128
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
928 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTHWEST FROM NEW ENGLAND...WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CENTER OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 01Z...LONGWAVE RIDGE IS ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS WITH THE AXIS
JUST WEST OF THE MS RIVER. 1023MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER
LABRADOR WITH A SFC RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC.
THIS IS RESULTING IN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND ONSHORE FLOW EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND (AND THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY). LOW CLOUDS SPREAD WEST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

WITH STABLE ONSHORE FLOW...THE ONLY CAPE REMAINING IS WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE AND DIMINISHING. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND VICINITY
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING.

MIN TEMPS MID 60S INLAND (THE ONSHORE FLOW IS ACTUALLY DRIER THAN
THE CURRENT AIR)...AROUND 70F FOR NEARSHORE URBAN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE AIR MASS OVER THE MID ATLC WL RMN MOIST SAT...HENCE SKIES WL
AGN HV PLENTY OF CLDS W/ CHCS FOR RW IN THE MRNG THRU MIDDAY. HIGH
PRES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST WL BEGIN BLDG INTO THE MID ATLC DURG
THE AFTN. THIS COULD TRIGGER SOME LTNG BUT NOT XPCTG A SVR THREAT.
SKIES COULD BEGIN CLRG IN NERN MD BY LATE AFTN.

LATE AUG HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE M80S. XPCT TEMPS TO BE A FEW
DEGS BLO THAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOUTHWARD MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH REINFORCING
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE BEFORE THE FROPA ALONG WITH UPSLOPE FLOW
AND UPPER TROUGH ENERGY SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS
MAINLY THE BLUE RIDGE AND POTOMAC HIGHLAND SUNDAY NIGHT.
DRIER/COOLER AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOR
SUNDAY.

POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN DOMINATE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK WITH SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY. POSITION OF UPPER FLOW LOOKS TO KEEP ANY
TROPICAL SYSTEM ACTIVITY OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC NEXT WEEK AS
WELL.

RETURN FLOW SETS IN WITH TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL FOR THURSDAY
AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CONUS. THIS DEEPENING TROUGH DRAGS A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH FRIDAY
LOOKING TO BE BACK IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S ATTM. DEEP-LAYER WIND
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION
WITH THIS COLD FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVC AND MVFR/IFR CIGS XPCTD TO SPREAD WEST ACROSS THE TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS HOLD ON MUCH OF SATURDAY WITH SOME RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SKIES CLEAR FROM INCREASING HIGH
PRESSURE SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE/VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT ONSHORE FLOW...CHANCE OF SCA
LOW...BUT WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15 KT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WOULD
NOT BE A SURPRISE TO SEE STRONGER GUSTS AT TIMES...REQUIRED
STATEMENTS AND ADVISORIES.

COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE BAY SATURDAY NIGHT.
WINDS LOOK TO STAY BELOW SCA LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...JACKSON
PREVIOUS...WOODY!/AEB





000
FXUS61 KLWX 230128
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
928 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTHWEST FROM NEW ENGLAND...WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CENTER OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 01Z...LONGWAVE RIDGE IS ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS WITH THE AXIS
JUST WEST OF THE MS RIVER. 1023MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER
LABRADOR WITH A SFC RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC.
THIS IS RESULTING IN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND ONSHORE FLOW EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND (AND THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY). LOW CLOUDS SPREAD WEST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

WITH STABLE ONSHORE FLOW...THE ONLY CAPE REMAINING IS WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE AND DIMINISHING. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND VICINITY
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING.

MIN TEMPS MID 60S INLAND (THE ONSHORE FLOW IS ACTUALLY DRIER THAN
THE CURRENT AIR)...AROUND 70F FOR NEARSHORE URBAN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE AIR MASS OVER THE MID ATLC WL RMN MOIST SAT...HENCE SKIES WL
AGN HV PLENTY OF CLDS W/ CHCS FOR RW IN THE MRNG THRU MIDDAY. HIGH
PRES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST WL BEGIN BLDG INTO THE MID ATLC DURG
THE AFTN. THIS COULD TRIGGER SOME LTNG BUT NOT XPCTG A SVR THREAT.
SKIES COULD BEGIN CLRG IN NERN MD BY LATE AFTN.

LATE AUG HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE M80S. XPCT TEMPS TO BE A FEW
DEGS BLO THAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOUTHWARD MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH REINFORCING
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE BEFORE THE FROPA ALONG WITH UPSLOPE FLOW
AND UPPER TROUGH ENERGY SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS
MAINLY THE BLUE RIDGE AND POTOMAC HIGHLAND SUNDAY NIGHT.
DRIER/COOLER AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOR
SUNDAY.

POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN DOMINATE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK WITH SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY. POSITION OF UPPER FLOW LOOKS TO KEEP ANY
TROPICAL SYSTEM ACTIVITY OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC NEXT WEEK AS
WELL.

RETURN FLOW SETS IN WITH TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL FOR THURSDAY
AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CONUS. THIS DEEPENING TROUGH DRAGS A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH FRIDAY
LOOKING TO BE BACK IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S ATTM. DEEP-LAYER WIND
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION
WITH THIS COLD FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVC AND MVFR/IFR CIGS XPCTD TO SPREAD WEST ACROSS THE TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS HOLD ON MUCH OF SATURDAY WITH SOME RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SKIES CLEAR FROM INCREASING HIGH
PRESSURE SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE/VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT ONSHORE FLOW...CHANCE OF SCA
LOW...BUT WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15 KT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WOULD
NOT BE A SURPRISE TO SEE STRONGER GUSTS AT TIMES...REQUIRED
STATEMENTS AND ADVISORIES.

COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE BAY SATURDAY NIGHT.
WINDS LOOK TO STAY BELOW SCA LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...JACKSON
PREVIOUS...WOODY!/AEB





000
FXUS61 KLWX 230128
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
928 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTHWEST FROM NEW ENGLAND...WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CENTER OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 01Z...LONGWAVE RIDGE IS ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS WITH THE AXIS
JUST WEST OF THE MS RIVER. 1023MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER
LABRADOR WITH A SFC RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC.
THIS IS RESULTING IN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND ONSHORE FLOW EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND (AND THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY). LOW CLOUDS SPREAD WEST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

WITH STABLE ONSHORE FLOW...THE ONLY CAPE REMAINING IS WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE AND DIMINISHING. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND VICINITY
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING.

MIN TEMPS MID 60S INLAND (THE ONSHORE FLOW IS ACTUALLY DRIER THAN
THE CURRENT AIR)...AROUND 70F FOR NEARSHORE URBAN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE AIR MASS OVER THE MID ATLC WL RMN MOIST SAT...HENCE SKIES WL
AGN HV PLENTY OF CLDS W/ CHCS FOR RW IN THE MRNG THRU MIDDAY. HIGH
PRES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST WL BEGIN BLDG INTO THE MID ATLC DURG
THE AFTN. THIS COULD TRIGGER SOME LTNG BUT NOT XPCTG A SVR THREAT.
SKIES COULD BEGIN CLRG IN NERN MD BY LATE AFTN.

LATE AUG HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE M80S. XPCT TEMPS TO BE A FEW
DEGS BLO THAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOUTHWARD MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH REINFORCING
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE BEFORE THE FROPA ALONG WITH UPSLOPE FLOW
AND UPPER TROUGH ENERGY SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS
MAINLY THE BLUE RIDGE AND POTOMAC HIGHLAND SUNDAY NIGHT.
DRIER/COOLER AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOR
SUNDAY.

POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN DOMINATE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK WITH SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY. POSITION OF UPPER FLOW LOOKS TO KEEP ANY
TROPICAL SYSTEM ACTIVITY OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC NEXT WEEK AS
WELL.

RETURN FLOW SETS IN WITH TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL FOR THURSDAY
AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CONUS. THIS DEEPENING TROUGH DRAGS A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH FRIDAY
LOOKING TO BE BACK IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S ATTM. DEEP-LAYER WIND
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION
WITH THIS COLD FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVC AND MVFR/IFR CIGS XPCTD TO SPREAD WEST ACROSS THE TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS HOLD ON MUCH OF SATURDAY WITH SOME RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SKIES CLEAR FROM INCREASING HIGH
PRESSURE SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE/VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT ONSHORE FLOW...CHANCE OF SCA
LOW...BUT WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15 KT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WOULD
NOT BE A SURPRISE TO SEE STRONGER GUSTS AT TIMES...REQUIRED
STATEMENTS AND ADVISORIES.

COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE BAY SATURDAY NIGHT.
WINDS LOOK TO STAY BELOW SCA LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...JACKSON
PREVIOUS...WOODY!/AEB





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230118
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
918 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND SLOWLY
BUILDS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE SETTLING
OVER THE PIEDMONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 01Z...PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OUT OF CWA. WIDELY SCTD SHWRS
PERSIST JUST WEST OF CWA...AND MAY MOVE INTO PTNS OF THE PIEDMONT
LATER THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...THINK RISK FOR SHWRS/TSTMS HAS
DECREASED CWA-WIDE...AND HAVE THUS LOWERED POPS EVERYWHERE. WAS
TEMPTED TO KEEP NE HALF OF CWA DRY OVERNIGHT...BUT 18Z NAM WOULD
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHWRS PERSISTS. SO
HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT CHC NE HALF...WITH NO HIGHER THAN 40 PCT POPS
EXTREME SW. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT...AND THIS
SHOULD INHIBIT FOG FORMATION ACROSS THE DELMARVA...WHERE SOME
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...TREND
HAS BEEN FOR DEW PTS TO FALL OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS
THE LWR MD EASTERN SHORE...WHICH ALSO ARGUES FOR LESS FOG
POTENTIAL. MIN TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S/ARND 70 LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
CHC POPS ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
SATURDAY AS THE REMNANT BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR THE LOCAL AREA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WILL BE CONFINED AWAY FROM THE COASTS DUE TO
ENE FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE HIGH
SURGES SSW OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS SETTLING OVER THE PIEDMONT BY MONDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A
DRYING TREND ALONG WITH A NE WIND THAT SHOULD BE RATHER BREEZY ALONG
THE COAST. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.

HIGHS WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
(AROUND -1 ST DEV). SATURDAY HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 80-85 (UPPER 70S
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST)...WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
LOW/MID 60S EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
IS EXPECTED TO KEEP TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY WELL OFF THE COAST BY
ABOUT 500-600 MILES. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A COOLER AIRMASS
OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED BEFORE THE RIDGE AXES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT
ALOFT BEGIN TO SHIFT JUST EAST OF THE FA...AND MOVING OFFSHORE BY
THU. THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIODS DUE TO WELL-ESTABLISHED SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILE...HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE FAR SE
VA/NE NC COAST ON WED DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR WRAPAROUND MOISTURE
FROM THE TROPICAL SYSTEM PASSING WELL TO THE EAST. HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL FROM MON NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT
(LOWS IN THE 60S...UPPER 50S FAR WRN COUNTIES/HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
80S...MID-UPPER 70S BEACHES) AND THEN REBOUND TWD SEASONAL NORMALS
THU/THU NIGHT (HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S...UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S
BEACHES/LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S...AROUND 70 BEACHES).

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SEVERAL DAYS OF NORTHEAST
FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED.

MVFR CIGS WILL BE PSBL AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES AND INCLUDED IFR
CONDS AT SBY AFT 07Z WHERE THE GROUND IS FAIRLY WET AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER IS MOIST. VFR CONDS SHOULD TAKE OVER BY LATE MORNING. CHC FOR
PCPN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD IS NO HIGHER THAN 30 PERCENT AND LEFT
PCPN OUT OF THE FCST.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR DUE TO STRATUS OR FOG WILL BE A POTENTIAL A FEW
HOURS AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS BEGINNING SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES ISSUED FOR COASTAL WATERS AND SRN CHES BAY SAT AFTN
THROUGH SUN.

A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SWD ACROSS THE SRN
WATERS TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. MEANWHILE...A
WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
SAT. NLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WILL BE COMMON AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THEN THEY WILL TURN TO THE N-NE BEHIND IT AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES DOWN OVER THE WATERS. A PERIOD OF PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS
WILL RESULT IN PROLONGED SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND
SRN CHES BAY...MAINLY DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS/WAVES (4-5FT/3-4FT
RESPECTIVELY). WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-20KT OCEAN AND 10-15KT
BAY/RIVERS/SOUND. GUSTS MAY REACH 25 KT AT TIMES OVER COASTAL
WATERS BUT MAIN FOCUS OF SCA WILL BE ON SEAS OF 5 FT. GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FETCH...IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SEAS TO REACH 6 FT
NEAR BUOY 44009 SAT EVENING DURING A WEAK PUSH OF CAA. CURRITUCK
SOUND AND THE MOUTH OF THE JAMES RIVER MAY BE EXPERIENCE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA WINDS (15-20KT) ON SUN FROM DAYBREAK UNTIL
SUNSET BUT DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES FOR THESE AREAS FOR
NOW. ALTHOUGH CURRENT HEADLINES END AT 8PM SUN NIGHT...THERE IS A
VERY GOOD CHANCE THAT SCA FLAGS WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH MON. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON/TUE BUT A TROPICAL SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ABOUT 500-600 MILES E-SE OF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST DURING THIS TIME. SWELL FROM THIS SYSTEM...IN ADDITION TO
CONTINUED ONSHORE WINDS...COULD KEEP SEAS ELEVATED THROUGH MON
BEFORE SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SATURDAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ656-
     658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LSA
NEAR TERM...WRS
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...BMD/LSA







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230118
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
918 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND SLOWLY
BUILDS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE SETTLING
OVER THE PIEDMONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 01Z...PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OUT OF CWA. WIDELY SCTD SHWRS
PERSIST JUST WEST OF CWA...AND MAY MOVE INTO PTNS OF THE PIEDMONT
LATER THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...THINK RISK FOR SHWRS/TSTMS HAS
DECREASED CWA-WIDE...AND HAVE THUS LOWERED POPS EVERYWHERE. WAS
TEMPTED TO KEEP NE HALF OF CWA DRY OVERNIGHT...BUT 18Z NAM WOULD
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHWRS PERSISTS. SO
HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT CHC NE HALF...WITH NO HIGHER THAN 40 PCT POPS
EXTREME SW. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT...AND THIS
SHOULD INHIBIT FOG FORMATION ACROSS THE DELMARVA...WHERE SOME
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...TREND
HAS BEEN FOR DEW PTS TO FALL OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS
THE LWR MD EASTERN SHORE...WHICH ALSO ARGUES FOR LESS FOG
POTENTIAL. MIN TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S/ARND 70 LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
CHC POPS ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
SATURDAY AS THE REMNANT BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR THE LOCAL AREA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WILL BE CONFINED AWAY FROM THE COASTS DUE TO
ENE FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE HIGH
SURGES SSW OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS SETTLING OVER THE PIEDMONT BY MONDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A
DRYING TREND ALONG WITH A NE WIND THAT SHOULD BE RATHER BREEZY ALONG
THE COAST. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.

HIGHS WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
(AROUND -1 ST DEV). SATURDAY HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 80-85 (UPPER 70S
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST)...WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
LOW/MID 60S EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
IS EXPECTED TO KEEP TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY WELL OFF THE COAST BY
ABOUT 500-600 MILES. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A COOLER AIRMASS
OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED BEFORE THE RIDGE AXES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT
ALOFT BEGIN TO SHIFT JUST EAST OF THE FA...AND MOVING OFFSHORE BY
THU. THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIODS DUE TO WELL-ESTABLISHED SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILE...HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE FAR SE
VA/NE NC COAST ON WED DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR WRAPAROUND MOISTURE
FROM THE TROPICAL SYSTEM PASSING WELL TO THE EAST. HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL FROM MON NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT
(LOWS IN THE 60S...UPPER 50S FAR WRN COUNTIES/HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
80S...MID-UPPER 70S BEACHES) AND THEN REBOUND TWD SEASONAL NORMALS
THU/THU NIGHT (HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S...UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S
BEACHES/LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S...AROUND 70 BEACHES).

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SEVERAL DAYS OF NORTHEAST
FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED.

MVFR CIGS WILL BE PSBL AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES AND INCLUDED IFR
CONDS AT SBY AFT 07Z WHERE THE GROUND IS FAIRLY WET AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER IS MOIST. VFR CONDS SHOULD TAKE OVER BY LATE MORNING. CHC FOR
PCPN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD IS NO HIGHER THAN 30 PERCENT AND LEFT
PCPN OUT OF THE FCST.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR DUE TO STRATUS OR FOG WILL BE A POTENTIAL A FEW
HOURS AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS BEGINNING SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES ISSUED FOR COASTAL WATERS AND SRN CHES BAY SAT AFTN
THROUGH SUN.

A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SWD ACROSS THE SRN
WATERS TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. MEANWHILE...A
WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
SAT. NLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WILL BE COMMON AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THEN THEY WILL TURN TO THE N-NE BEHIND IT AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES DOWN OVER THE WATERS. A PERIOD OF PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS
WILL RESULT IN PROLONGED SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND
SRN CHES BAY...MAINLY DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS/WAVES (4-5FT/3-4FT
RESPECTIVELY). WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-20KT OCEAN AND 10-15KT
BAY/RIVERS/SOUND. GUSTS MAY REACH 25 KT AT TIMES OVER COASTAL
WATERS BUT MAIN FOCUS OF SCA WILL BE ON SEAS OF 5 FT. GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FETCH...IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SEAS TO REACH 6 FT
NEAR BUOY 44009 SAT EVENING DURING A WEAK PUSH OF CAA. CURRITUCK
SOUND AND THE MOUTH OF THE JAMES RIVER MAY BE EXPERIENCE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA WINDS (15-20KT) ON SUN FROM DAYBREAK UNTIL
SUNSET BUT DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES FOR THESE AREAS FOR
NOW. ALTHOUGH CURRENT HEADLINES END AT 8PM SUN NIGHT...THERE IS A
VERY GOOD CHANCE THAT SCA FLAGS WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH MON. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON/TUE BUT A TROPICAL SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ABOUT 500-600 MILES E-SE OF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST DURING THIS TIME. SWELL FROM THIS SYSTEM...IN ADDITION TO
CONTINUED ONSHORE WINDS...COULD KEEP SEAS ELEVATED THROUGH MON
BEFORE SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SATURDAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ656-
     658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LSA
NEAR TERM...WRS
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...BMD/LSA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 230108
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
908 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE MOVING AWAY THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE TREND AND CONSISTENCY WITH THE MESOSCALE MODELS THIS EVENING
HAS BEEN FOR SHOWERS TO REMAIN MAINLY WEST OF THE DELAWARE RIVER
TONIGHT. ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS WERE MADE IT IN THAT DIRECTION.
SHOWERS ARE MAKING IT BACK INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF OUR CWA
AND WITH THE TROF SHARPENING OVERNIGHT, ADDITIONAL ONES SHOULD
FOLLOW. SMOOTHING OF POPS INTO EARLY SATURDAY WERE MADE TO
KEEP A SEAMLESS TRANSITION.

TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED CLOSE AND NO BIG CHANGES HAVE BEEN
MADE WITH THEM OR MOST OF THE OTHER GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

DEEP MOISTURE SATURDAY WITH WEAK VV DUE TO TROUGH AXIS ALOFT SWINGING
SWD FROM NYS AS WELL AS WEAK LOW LVL UPSLOPE FLOW COULD RESULT IN
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR A TIME DURING THE MORNING AND MAKE IT
A BLEAK SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY AFTN SHOULD START DRYING OUT WITH BRIGHTENING SKIES
TOWARD 6 PM.

ENE WIND MAX GUST AROUND 20 MPH.

50 50 BLENDED 12Z/22 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE ONLY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE LONG TERM PART OF THE FCST
WILL BE ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA...MOSTLY
SOUTH...SATURDAY EVENING. THE UPPER H5 TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE
AREA AND PLENTY OF DRIER AND SUBSIDING AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND IT.
WE WILL JUST KEEP THE SLGT CHC POPS FOR SRN NJ AND THE
DELMARVA...AS WAS ALREADY IN THERE. TEMPS SAT NIGHT MID/UPPER 50S
NORTH/WEST AND LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS SLATED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD UP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SUN AND IT WILL ROTATE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC REGION NEXT WEEK. A STRONG SFC HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE
AREA MON. THIS WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER WITH COOL TEMPS SUN/MON.
TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL FOR TUE AND THEN CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL
FOR WED/THU.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA WILL ARRIVE THU AND
THEN MOVE AWAY FRI. IT WILL PROBABLY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA. WE HAVE JUST PAINTED SOME SLGT CHC POPS FOR NOW. A TROPICAL
SYSTEM MAY MOVE UP FROM THE BAHAMAS TUESDAY NORTH NORTHEAST WED-THU.
SINCE IT WILL BE STAYING WELL EAST OF THE AREA...IT IS NOT EXPECTED
TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER...EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME ENHANCED
SEAS. WE WILL BE WATCHING ANY DEVELOPMENTS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 00Z TAFS CONTINUED THE IDEA OF CIGS LOWERING TO AROUND IFR
THRESHOLD LATE TONIGHT.

FOR THIS EVENING, EXPECTING A MVFR CIG TO FORM IF NOT ALREADY
PRESENT. MENTION OF SHOWERS LATE AT KRDG. MOST OF THEM HAVE BEEN
DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING OUR AREA. LIGHT EAST WINDS.

OVERNIGHT, GREATER CONFIDENCE OF A LOWER CIG FORMING. NOT AS
CONFIDENT ABOUT LOW MVFR VS IFR. IFR CIGS WERE KEPT AT TERMINALS
NEAR THE DELAWARE BAY AND WITH SOME ELEVATION, UPSLOPE FLOW. ANOTHER
SHOT OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH. HIGHEST CONFID AT
KABE. SOME MVFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG MAY ALSO OCCUR LATE. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE EAST.

ON SATURDAY, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE MORNING
CONTINUES. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SOME WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BE
AROUND. BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. BEST CHANCE WESTERN
AIRPORTS/TERMINALS DURING THE MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BACK SLIGHTLY
MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST, WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH 4 FEET AND WINDS MAY
BEGIN TO GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS EARLY FLOW INCREASES AS
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

SATURDAY...SCA ISSUED FOR THE SNJ AND DE ATLC WATERS AND FOR NOW
NONE NNJ WATERS. HOWEVER...THIS FCST HAS TRIMMED SEA STATE BY 1
FOOT ON SATURDAY AND WE MAY BE TOO CONSERVATIVE. IN WHICH CASE MAY
NEED TO EXPAND THE SCA INTO THE NNJ WATERS ON ONE OF OUR NEXT FCST
SHIFTS.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...SCA FLAG CONTINUES SAT NIGHT AND THRU 800 AM SUN FOR
THE SRN NJ AND DEL COASTAL WATERS. NEAR SCA CONDITIONS FURTHER NORTH.
FAIR WEATHER.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. WHILE SOME
OF OUR GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING LOW RISK FOR DELAWARE, ONSHORE WINDS
WILL BE RELATIVELY THE HIGHEST ALONG OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL COUNTIES
ON SATURDAY. GIVEN THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD PERSIST INTO SUNDAY,
SO MIGHT THE MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ452>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...GIGI






000
FXUS61 KPHI 230108
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
908 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE MOVING AWAY THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE TREND AND CONSISTENCY WITH THE MESOSCALE MODELS THIS EVENING
HAS BEEN FOR SHOWERS TO REMAIN MAINLY WEST OF THE DELAWARE RIVER
TONIGHT. ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS WERE MADE IT IN THAT DIRECTION.
SHOWERS ARE MAKING IT BACK INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF OUR CWA
AND WITH THE TROF SHARPENING OVERNIGHT, ADDITIONAL ONES SHOULD
FOLLOW. SMOOTHING OF POPS INTO EARLY SATURDAY WERE MADE TO
KEEP A SEAMLESS TRANSITION.

TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED CLOSE AND NO BIG CHANGES HAVE BEEN
MADE WITH THEM OR MOST OF THE OTHER GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

DEEP MOISTURE SATURDAY WITH WEAK VV DUE TO TROUGH AXIS ALOFT SWINGING
SWD FROM NYS AS WELL AS WEAK LOW LVL UPSLOPE FLOW COULD RESULT IN
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR A TIME DURING THE MORNING AND MAKE IT
A BLEAK SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY AFTN SHOULD START DRYING OUT WITH BRIGHTENING SKIES
TOWARD 6 PM.

ENE WIND MAX GUST AROUND 20 MPH.

50 50 BLENDED 12Z/22 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE ONLY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE LONG TERM PART OF THE FCST
WILL BE ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA...MOSTLY
SOUTH...SATURDAY EVENING. THE UPPER H5 TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE
AREA AND PLENTY OF DRIER AND SUBSIDING AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND IT.
WE WILL JUST KEEP THE SLGT CHC POPS FOR SRN NJ AND THE
DELMARVA...AS WAS ALREADY IN THERE. TEMPS SAT NIGHT MID/UPPER 50S
NORTH/WEST AND LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS SLATED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD UP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SUN AND IT WILL ROTATE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC REGION NEXT WEEK. A STRONG SFC HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE
AREA MON. THIS WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER WITH COOL TEMPS SUN/MON.
TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL FOR TUE AND THEN CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL
FOR WED/THU.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA WILL ARRIVE THU AND
THEN MOVE AWAY FRI. IT WILL PROBABLY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA. WE HAVE JUST PAINTED SOME SLGT CHC POPS FOR NOW. A TROPICAL
SYSTEM MAY MOVE UP FROM THE BAHAMAS TUESDAY NORTH NORTHEAST WED-THU.
SINCE IT WILL BE STAYING WELL EAST OF THE AREA...IT IS NOT EXPECTED
TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER...EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME ENHANCED
SEAS. WE WILL BE WATCHING ANY DEVELOPMENTS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 00Z TAFS CONTINUED THE IDEA OF CIGS LOWERING TO AROUND IFR
THRESHOLD LATE TONIGHT.

FOR THIS EVENING, EXPECTING A MVFR CIG TO FORM IF NOT ALREADY
PRESENT. MENTION OF SHOWERS LATE AT KRDG. MOST OF THEM HAVE BEEN
DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING OUR AREA. LIGHT EAST WINDS.

OVERNIGHT, GREATER CONFIDENCE OF A LOWER CIG FORMING. NOT AS
CONFIDENT ABOUT LOW MVFR VS IFR. IFR CIGS WERE KEPT AT TERMINALS
NEAR THE DELAWARE BAY AND WITH SOME ELEVATION, UPSLOPE FLOW. ANOTHER
SHOT OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH. HIGHEST CONFID AT
KABE. SOME MVFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG MAY ALSO OCCUR LATE. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE EAST.

ON SATURDAY, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE MORNING
CONTINUES. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SOME WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BE
AROUND. BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. BEST CHANCE WESTERN
AIRPORTS/TERMINALS DURING THE MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BACK SLIGHTLY
MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST, WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH 4 FEET AND WINDS MAY
BEGIN TO GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS EARLY FLOW INCREASES AS
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

SATURDAY...SCA ISSUED FOR THE SNJ AND DE ATLC WATERS AND FOR NOW
NONE NNJ WATERS. HOWEVER...THIS FCST HAS TRIMMED SEA STATE BY 1
FOOT ON SATURDAY AND WE MAY BE TOO CONSERVATIVE. IN WHICH CASE MAY
NEED TO EXPAND THE SCA INTO THE NNJ WATERS ON ONE OF OUR NEXT FCST
SHIFTS.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...SCA FLAG CONTINUES SAT NIGHT AND THRU 800 AM SUN FOR
THE SRN NJ AND DEL COASTAL WATERS. NEAR SCA CONDITIONS FURTHER NORTH.
FAIR WEATHER.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. WHILE SOME
OF OUR GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING LOW RISK FOR DELAWARE, ONSHORE WINDS
WILL BE RELATIVELY THE HIGHEST ALONG OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL COUNTIES
ON SATURDAY. GIVEN THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD PERSIST INTO SUNDAY,
SO MIGHT THE MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ452>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...GIGI







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230038 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
838 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WARM AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
840PM UPDATE...AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DRIFTING SOUTHWARD. HAVE
INCREASED POPS IN SOUTHERN HALF AND ADDED IN MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN
THIS EVENING. TEMPS UPDATED TO LATEST GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STILL INCREASE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY FINALLY SAGS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. LINGERING CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT CAPE
VALUES RATHER LOW TODAY...EVEN WITH BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO NEAR
30 KTS. WITH THIS IN MIND...OPTED TO KEEP ONLY CHANCE THUNDER
WORDING...AND THINK THAT FOR THE MOST PART STORMS WILL REMAIN
UNDER SEVERE THRESHOLDS.

WHILE PWATS IN OUR SOUTHERNMOST ZONES WILL STILL BE IN THE 2 INCH
RANGE...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THESE VALUES IS EXPECTED. WILL
MAINTAIN THE MENTION FOR ISOLATED FLOODING IN THE HWO SINCE ANY
TRAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER ALREADY SATURATED AREAS COULD
CAUSE PROBLEMS...BUT OVERALL THINK THE THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL
VERSUS THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.

LOSS OF HEATING AS WELL AS SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF FRONT WILL
ALLOW COVERAGE TO WANE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE TOMORROW. WITH THE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ONLY CHANCE POPS WERE
CARRIED. GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES...WHICH KEEPS US CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN EXITING SHRTWV WL CONT LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS INTO SAT NGT...THEN
STG RIDGING WL BLD IN ACRS THE GT LKS/OH VLY RGN THRU MON WITH DRY
WEA EXPD. TEMPS WL AVG A FEW DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING WL PERSIST INTO MID WK WITH DRY AND WRM WEA. A CROSSING
SHRTWV AND CDFNT IS PROGGED FOR A THU PASSAGE WITH CHC POPS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS...FOLLOWED BY BLDG HIGH PRES TO FINISH THE WK. ABV AVG
TEMPS WL RTN TO NR OR BLO AVG LVLS AFT THE LT WK FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINTAINED A VCSH MENTION WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR AT KMGW AND KDUJ
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. AFTER DIURNAL SHWRS SUBSIDE...WITH LLVL
MOISTURE POOLING...EXPG IFR FOG TO DVLP OVRNGT INTO ERLY SAT AS
WELL. A PD OF MVFR DIURNAL CU CIGS ARE EXPD SAT MRNG BEFORE VFR
RTNS BY AFTN. A SHWR IS PSBL SAT BUT COVG EXPD TO BE TOO LOW FOR A
TAF MENTION ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ERLY SUN MRNG FOG RSTRNS ARE PSBL.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230038 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
838 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WARM AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
840PM UPDATE...AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DRIFTING SOUTHWARD. HAVE
INCREASED POPS IN SOUTHERN HALF AND ADDED IN MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN
THIS EVENING. TEMPS UPDATED TO LATEST GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STILL INCREASE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY FINALLY SAGS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. LINGERING CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT CAPE
VALUES RATHER LOW TODAY...EVEN WITH BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO NEAR
30 KTS. WITH THIS IN MIND...OPTED TO KEEP ONLY CHANCE THUNDER
WORDING...AND THINK THAT FOR THE MOST PART STORMS WILL REMAIN
UNDER SEVERE THRESHOLDS.

WHILE PWATS IN OUR SOUTHERNMOST ZONES WILL STILL BE IN THE 2 INCH
RANGE...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THESE VALUES IS EXPECTED. WILL
MAINTAIN THE MENTION FOR ISOLATED FLOODING IN THE HWO SINCE ANY
TRAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER ALREADY SATURATED AREAS COULD
CAUSE PROBLEMS...BUT OVERALL THINK THE THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL
VERSUS THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.

LOSS OF HEATING AS WELL AS SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF FRONT WILL
ALLOW COVERAGE TO WANE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE TOMORROW. WITH THE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ONLY CHANCE POPS WERE
CARRIED. GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES...WHICH KEEPS US CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN EXITING SHRTWV WL CONT LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS INTO SAT NGT...THEN
STG RIDGING WL BLD IN ACRS THE GT LKS/OH VLY RGN THRU MON WITH DRY
WEA EXPD. TEMPS WL AVG A FEW DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING WL PERSIST INTO MID WK WITH DRY AND WRM WEA. A CROSSING
SHRTWV AND CDFNT IS PROGGED FOR A THU PASSAGE WITH CHC POPS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS...FOLLOWED BY BLDG HIGH PRES TO FINISH THE WK. ABV AVG
TEMPS WL RTN TO NR OR BLO AVG LVLS AFT THE LT WK FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINTAINED A VCSH MENTION WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR AT KMGW AND KDUJ
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. AFTER DIURNAL SHWRS SUBSIDE...WITH LLVL
MOISTURE POOLING...EXPG IFR FOG TO DVLP OVRNGT INTO ERLY SAT AS
WELL. A PD OF MVFR DIURNAL CU CIGS ARE EXPD SAT MRNG BEFORE VFR
RTNS BY AFTN. A SHWR IS PSBL SAT BUT COVG EXPD TO BE TOO LOW FOR A
TAF MENTION ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ERLY SUN MRNG FOG RSTRNS ARE PSBL.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230038 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
838 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WARM AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
840PM UPDATE...AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DRIFTING SOUTHWARD. HAVE
INCREASED POPS IN SOUTHERN HALF AND ADDED IN MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN
THIS EVENING. TEMPS UPDATED TO LATEST GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STILL INCREASE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY FINALLY SAGS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. LINGERING CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT CAPE
VALUES RATHER LOW TODAY...EVEN WITH BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO NEAR
30 KTS. WITH THIS IN MIND...OPTED TO KEEP ONLY CHANCE THUNDER
WORDING...AND THINK THAT FOR THE MOST PART STORMS WILL REMAIN
UNDER SEVERE THRESHOLDS.

WHILE PWATS IN OUR SOUTHERNMOST ZONES WILL STILL BE IN THE 2 INCH
RANGE...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THESE VALUES IS EXPECTED. WILL
MAINTAIN THE MENTION FOR ISOLATED FLOODING IN THE HWO SINCE ANY
TRAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER ALREADY SATURATED AREAS COULD
CAUSE PROBLEMS...BUT OVERALL THINK THE THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL
VERSUS THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.

LOSS OF HEATING AS WELL AS SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF FRONT WILL
ALLOW COVERAGE TO WANE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE TOMORROW. WITH THE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ONLY CHANCE POPS WERE
CARRIED. GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES...WHICH KEEPS US CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN EXITING SHRTWV WL CONT LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS INTO SAT NGT...THEN
STG RIDGING WL BLD IN ACRS THE GT LKS/OH VLY RGN THRU MON WITH DRY
WEA EXPD. TEMPS WL AVG A FEW DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING WL PERSIST INTO MID WK WITH DRY AND WRM WEA. A CROSSING
SHRTWV AND CDFNT IS PROGGED FOR A THU PASSAGE WITH CHC POPS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS...FOLLOWED BY BLDG HIGH PRES TO FINISH THE WK. ABV AVG
TEMPS WL RTN TO NR OR BLO AVG LVLS AFT THE LT WK FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINTAINED A VCSH MENTION WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR AT KMGW AND KDUJ
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. AFTER DIURNAL SHWRS SUBSIDE...WITH LLVL
MOISTURE POOLING...EXPG IFR FOG TO DVLP OVRNGT INTO ERLY SAT AS
WELL. A PD OF MVFR DIURNAL CU CIGS ARE EXPD SAT MRNG BEFORE VFR
RTNS BY AFTN. A SHWR IS PSBL SAT BUT COVG EXPD TO BE TOO LOW FOR A
TAF MENTION ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ERLY SUN MRNG FOG RSTRNS ARE PSBL.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230038 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
838 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WARM AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
840PM UPDATE...AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DRIFTING SOUTHWARD. HAVE
INCREASED POPS IN SOUTHERN HALF AND ADDED IN MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN
THIS EVENING. TEMPS UPDATED TO LATEST GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STILL INCREASE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY FINALLY SAGS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. LINGERING CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT CAPE
VALUES RATHER LOW TODAY...EVEN WITH BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO NEAR
30 KTS. WITH THIS IN MIND...OPTED TO KEEP ONLY CHANCE THUNDER
WORDING...AND THINK THAT FOR THE MOST PART STORMS WILL REMAIN
UNDER SEVERE THRESHOLDS.

WHILE PWATS IN OUR SOUTHERNMOST ZONES WILL STILL BE IN THE 2 INCH
RANGE...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THESE VALUES IS EXPECTED. WILL
MAINTAIN THE MENTION FOR ISOLATED FLOODING IN THE HWO SINCE ANY
TRAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER ALREADY SATURATED AREAS COULD
CAUSE PROBLEMS...BUT OVERALL THINK THE THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL
VERSUS THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.

LOSS OF HEATING AS WELL AS SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF FRONT WILL
ALLOW COVERAGE TO WANE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE TOMORROW. WITH THE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ONLY CHANCE POPS WERE
CARRIED. GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES...WHICH KEEPS US CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN EXITING SHRTWV WL CONT LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS INTO SAT NGT...THEN
STG RIDGING WL BLD IN ACRS THE GT LKS/OH VLY RGN THRU MON WITH DRY
WEA EXPD. TEMPS WL AVG A FEW DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING WL PERSIST INTO MID WK WITH DRY AND WRM WEA. A CROSSING
SHRTWV AND CDFNT IS PROGGED FOR A THU PASSAGE WITH CHC POPS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS...FOLLOWED BY BLDG HIGH PRES TO FINISH THE WK. ABV AVG
TEMPS WL RTN TO NR OR BLO AVG LVLS AFT THE LT WK FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINTAINED A VCSH MENTION WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR AT KMGW AND KDUJ
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. AFTER DIURNAL SHWRS SUBSIDE...WITH LLVL
MOISTURE POOLING...EXPG IFR FOG TO DVLP OVRNGT INTO ERLY SAT AS
WELL. A PD OF MVFR DIURNAL CU CIGS ARE EXPD SAT MRNG BEFORE VFR
RTNS BY AFTN. A SHWR IS PSBL SAT BUT COVG EXPD TO BE TOO LOW FOR A
TAF MENTION ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ERLY SUN MRNG FOG RSTRNS ARE PSBL.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230010
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
810 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND SLOWLY
BUILDS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE SETTLING
OVER THE PIEDMONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE VA/NC
COAST...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING BACK THROUGH ERN VA AND
THEN NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL PA. ALOFT...NW MID/UPPER FLOW CONTINUES
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS HAS BEEN FROM THE NRN
NECK TO THE ERN SHORE. THIS IS OCCURRING IMMEDIATELY NE OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS COMBINED WITH
MODEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER JET MAX. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS OCCURRING WITH RADAR ESTIMATED RATES OF 1-2IN/HR. NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS SEEM TO HANDLE THE OMEGA PROFILE RATHER WELL AND INDICATE
THIS LIFT DIMINISHES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER
WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FORCING FOR ASCENT
WANES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND HENCE POPS DIMINISH ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER. THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
CHC POPS ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
SATURDAY AS THE REMNANT BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR THE LOCAL AREA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WILL BE CONFINED AWAY FROM THE COASTS DUE TO
ENE FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE HIGH
SURGES SSW OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS SETTLING OVER THE PIEDMONT BY MONDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A
DRYING TREND ALONG WITH A NE WIND THAT SHOULD BE RATHER BREEZY ALONG
THE COAST. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.

HIGHS WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
(AROUND -1 ST DEV). SATURDAY HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 80-85 (UPPER 70S
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST)...WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
LOW/MID 60S EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
IS EXPECTED TO KEEP TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY WELL OFF THE COAST BY
ABOUT 500-600 MILES. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A COOLER AIRMASS
OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED BEFORE THE RIDGE AXES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT
ALOFT BEGIN TO SHIFT JUST EAST OF THE FA...AND MOVING OFFSHORE BY
THU. THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIODS DUE TO WELL-ESTABLISHED SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILE...HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE FAR SE
VA/NE NC COAST ON WED DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR WRAPAROUND MOISTURE
FROM THE TROPICAL SYSTEM PASSING WELL TO THE EAST. HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL FROM MON NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT
(LOWS IN THE 60S...UPPER 50S FAR WRN COUNTIES/HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
80S...MID-UPPER 70S BEACHES) AND THEN REBOUND TWD SEASONAL NORMALS
THU/THU NIGHT (HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S...UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S
BEACHES/LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S...AROUND 70 BEACHES).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SEVERAL DAYS OF NORTHEAST
FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED.

MVFR CIGS WILL BE PSBL AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES AND INCLUDED IFR
CONDS AT SBY AFT 07Z WHERE THE GROUND IS FAIRLY WET AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER IS MOIST. VFR CONDS SHOULD TAKE OVER BY LATE MORNING. CHC FOR
PCPN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD IS NO HIGHER THAN 30 PERCENT AND LEFT
PCPN OUT OF THE FCST.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR DUE TO STRATUS OR FOG WILL BE A POTENTIAL A FEW
HOURS AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS BEGINNING SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES ISSUED FOR COASTAL WATERS AND SRN CHES BAY SAT AFTN
THROUGH SUN.

A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SWD ACROSS THE SRN
WATERS TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. MEANWHILE...A
WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
SAT. NLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WILL BE COMMON AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THEN THEY WILL TURN TO THE N-NE BEHIND IT AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES DOWN OVER THE WATERS. A PERIOD OF PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS
WILL RESULT IN PROLONGED SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND
SRN CHES BAY...MAINLY DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS/WAVES (4-5FT/3-4FT
RESPECTIVELY). WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-20KT OCEAN AND 10-15KT
BAY/RIVERS/SOUND. GUSTS MAY REACH 25 KT AT TIMES OVER COASTAL
WATERS BUT MAIN FOCUS OF SCA WILL BE ON SEAS OF 5 FT. GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FETCH...IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SEAS TO REACH 6 FT
NEAR BUOY 44009 SAT EVENING DURING A WEAK PUSH OF CAA. CURRITUCK
SOUND AND THE MOUTH OF THE JAMES RIVER MAY BE EXPERIENCE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA WINDS (15-20KT) ON SUN FROM DAYBREAK UNTIL
SUNSET BUT DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES FOR THESE AREAS FOR
NOW. ALTHOUGH CURRENT HEADLINES END AT 8PM SUN NIGHT...THERE IS A
VERY GOOD CHANCE THAT SCA FLAGS WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH MON. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON/TUE BUT A TROPICAL SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ABOUT 500-600 MILES E-SE OF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST DURING THIS TIME. SWELL FROM THIS SYSTEM...IN ADDITION TO
CONTINUED ONSHORE WINDS...COULD KEEP SEAS ELEVATED THROUGH MON
BEFORE SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SATURDAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ656-
     658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB/LSA
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...BMD






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230010
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
810 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND SLOWLY
BUILDS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE SETTLING
OVER THE PIEDMONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE VA/NC
COAST...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING BACK THROUGH ERN VA AND
THEN NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL PA. ALOFT...NW MID/UPPER FLOW CONTINUES
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS HAS BEEN FROM THE NRN
NECK TO THE ERN SHORE. THIS IS OCCURRING IMMEDIATELY NE OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS COMBINED WITH
MODEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER JET MAX. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS OCCURRING WITH RADAR ESTIMATED RATES OF 1-2IN/HR. NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS SEEM TO HANDLE THE OMEGA PROFILE RATHER WELL AND INDICATE
THIS LIFT DIMINISHES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER
WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FORCING FOR ASCENT
WANES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND HENCE POPS DIMINISH ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER. THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
CHC POPS ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
SATURDAY AS THE REMNANT BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR THE LOCAL AREA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WILL BE CONFINED AWAY FROM THE COASTS DUE TO
ENE FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE HIGH
SURGES SSW OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS SETTLING OVER THE PIEDMONT BY MONDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A
DRYING TREND ALONG WITH A NE WIND THAT SHOULD BE RATHER BREEZY ALONG
THE COAST. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.

HIGHS WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
(AROUND -1 ST DEV). SATURDAY HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 80-85 (UPPER 70S
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST)...WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
LOW/MID 60S EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
IS EXPECTED TO KEEP TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY WELL OFF THE COAST BY
ABOUT 500-600 MILES. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A COOLER AIRMASS
OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED BEFORE THE RIDGE AXES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT
ALOFT BEGIN TO SHIFT JUST EAST OF THE FA...AND MOVING OFFSHORE BY
THU. THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIODS DUE TO WELL-ESTABLISHED SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILE...HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE FAR SE
VA/NE NC COAST ON WED DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR WRAPAROUND MOISTURE
FROM THE TROPICAL SYSTEM PASSING WELL TO THE EAST. HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL FROM MON NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT
(LOWS IN THE 60S...UPPER 50S FAR WRN COUNTIES/HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
80S...MID-UPPER 70S BEACHES) AND THEN REBOUND TWD SEASONAL NORMALS
THU/THU NIGHT (HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S...UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S
BEACHES/LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S...AROUND 70 BEACHES).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SEVERAL DAYS OF NORTHEAST
FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED.

MVFR CIGS WILL BE PSBL AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES AND INCLUDED IFR
CONDS AT SBY AFT 07Z WHERE THE GROUND IS FAIRLY WET AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER IS MOIST. VFR CONDS SHOULD TAKE OVER BY LATE MORNING. CHC FOR
PCPN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD IS NO HIGHER THAN 30 PERCENT AND LEFT
PCPN OUT OF THE FCST.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR DUE TO STRATUS OR FOG WILL BE A POTENTIAL A FEW
HOURS AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS BEGINNING SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES ISSUED FOR COASTAL WATERS AND SRN CHES BAY SAT AFTN
THROUGH SUN.

A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SWD ACROSS THE SRN
WATERS TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. MEANWHILE...A
WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
SAT. NLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WILL BE COMMON AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THEN THEY WILL TURN TO THE N-NE BEHIND IT AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES DOWN OVER THE WATERS. A PERIOD OF PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS
WILL RESULT IN PROLONGED SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND
SRN CHES BAY...MAINLY DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS/WAVES (4-5FT/3-4FT
RESPECTIVELY). WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-20KT OCEAN AND 10-15KT
BAY/RIVERS/SOUND. GUSTS MAY REACH 25 KT AT TIMES OVER COASTAL
WATERS BUT MAIN FOCUS OF SCA WILL BE ON SEAS OF 5 FT. GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FETCH...IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SEAS TO REACH 6 FT
NEAR BUOY 44009 SAT EVENING DURING A WEAK PUSH OF CAA. CURRITUCK
SOUND AND THE MOUTH OF THE JAMES RIVER MAY BE EXPERIENCE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA WINDS (15-20KT) ON SUN FROM DAYBREAK UNTIL
SUNSET BUT DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES FOR THESE AREAS FOR
NOW. ALTHOUGH CURRENT HEADLINES END AT 8PM SUN NIGHT...THERE IS A
VERY GOOD CHANCE THAT SCA FLAGS WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH MON. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON/TUE BUT A TROPICAL SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ABOUT 500-600 MILES E-SE OF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST DURING THIS TIME. SWELL FROM THIS SYSTEM...IN ADDITION TO
CONTINUED ONSHORE WINDS...COULD KEEP SEAS ELEVATED THROUGH MON
BEFORE SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SATURDAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ656-
     658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB/LSA
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...BMD







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 222337
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
737 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WARM AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
620PM UPDATE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MUCH
OF THE ACTIVITY IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN...SO ONCE THE SUN SETS EXPECT
THE ACTIVITY TO DWINDLE. TEMPS...POPS AND CLOUDS HAVE ALL BEEN
UPDATED FOR OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STILL INCREASE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY FINALLY SAGS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. LINGERING CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT CAPE
VALUES RATHER LOW TODAY...EVEN WITH BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO NEAR
30 KTS. WITH THIS IN MIND...OPTED TO KEEP ONLY CHANCE THUNDER
WORDING...AND THINK THAT FOR THE MOST PART STORMS WILL REMAIN
UNDER SEVERE THRESHOLDS.

WHILE PWATS IN OUR SOUTHERNMOST ZONES WILL STILL BE IN THE 2 INCH
RANGE...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THESE VALUES IS EXPECTED. WILL
MAINTAIN THE MENTION FOR ISOLATED FLOODING IN THE HWO SINCE ANY
TRAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER ALREADY SATURATED AREAS COULD
CAUSE PROBLEMS...BUT OVERALL THINK THE THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL
VERSUS THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.

LOSS OF HEATING AS WELL AS SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF FRONT WILL
ALLOW COVERAGE TO WANE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE TOMORROW. WITH THE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ONLY CHANCE POPS WERE
CARRIED. GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES...WHICH KEEPS US CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN EXITING SHRTWV WL CONT LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS INTO SAT NGT...THEN
STG RIDGING WL BLD IN ACRS THE GT LKS/OH VLY RGN THRU MON WITH DRY
WEA EXPD. TEMPS WL AVG A FEW DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING WL PERSIST INTO MID WK WITH DRY AND WRM WEA. A CROSSING
SHRTWV AND CDFNT IS PROGGED FOR A THU PASSAGE WITH CHC POPS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS...FOLLOWED BY BLDG HIGH PRES TO FINISH THE WK. ABV AVG
TEMPS WL RTN TO NR OR BLO AVG LVLS AFT THE LT WK FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINTAINED A VCSH MENTION WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR AT KMGW AND KDUJ
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. AFTER DIURNAL SHWRS SUBSIDE...WITH LLVL
MOISTURE POOLING...EXPG IFR FOG TO DVLP OVRNGT INTO ERLY SAT AS
WELL. A PD OF MVFR DIURNAL CU CIGS ARE EXPD SAT MRNG BEFORE VFR
RTNS BY AFTN. A SHWR IS PSBL SAT BUT COVG EXPD TO BE TOO LOW FOR A
TAF MENTION ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ERLY SUN MRNG FOG RSTRNS ARE PSBL.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 222337
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
737 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WARM AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
620PM UPDATE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MUCH
OF THE ACTIVITY IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN...SO ONCE THE SUN SETS EXPECT
THE ACTIVITY TO DWINDLE. TEMPS...POPS AND CLOUDS HAVE ALL BEEN
UPDATED FOR OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STILL INCREASE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY FINALLY SAGS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. LINGERING CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT CAPE
VALUES RATHER LOW TODAY...EVEN WITH BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO NEAR
30 KTS. WITH THIS IN MIND...OPTED TO KEEP ONLY CHANCE THUNDER
WORDING...AND THINK THAT FOR THE MOST PART STORMS WILL REMAIN
UNDER SEVERE THRESHOLDS.

WHILE PWATS IN OUR SOUTHERNMOST ZONES WILL STILL BE IN THE 2 INCH
RANGE...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THESE VALUES IS EXPECTED. WILL
MAINTAIN THE MENTION FOR ISOLATED FLOODING IN THE HWO SINCE ANY
TRAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER ALREADY SATURATED AREAS COULD
CAUSE PROBLEMS...BUT OVERALL THINK THE THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL
VERSUS THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.

LOSS OF HEATING AS WELL AS SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF FRONT WILL
ALLOW COVERAGE TO WANE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE TOMORROW. WITH THE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ONLY CHANCE POPS WERE
CARRIED. GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES...WHICH KEEPS US CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN EXITING SHRTWV WL CONT LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS INTO SAT NGT...THEN
STG RIDGING WL BLD IN ACRS THE GT LKS/OH VLY RGN THRU MON WITH DRY
WEA EXPD. TEMPS WL AVG A FEW DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING WL PERSIST INTO MID WK WITH DRY AND WRM WEA. A CROSSING
SHRTWV AND CDFNT IS PROGGED FOR A THU PASSAGE WITH CHC POPS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS...FOLLOWED BY BLDG HIGH PRES TO FINISH THE WK. ABV AVG
TEMPS WL RTN TO NR OR BLO AVG LVLS AFT THE LT WK FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINTAINED A VCSH MENTION WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR AT KMGW AND KDUJ
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. AFTER DIURNAL SHWRS SUBSIDE...WITH LLVL
MOISTURE POOLING...EXPG IFR FOG TO DVLP OVRNGT INTO ERLY SAT AS
WELL. A PD OF MVFR DIURNAL CU CIGS ARE EXPD SAT MRNG BEFORE VFR
RTNS BY AFTN. A SHWR IS PSBL SAT BUT COVG EXPD TO BE TOO LOW FOR A
TAF MENTION ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ERLY SUN MRNG FOG RSTRNS ARE PSBL.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPHI 222335
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
735 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE MOVING AWAY THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST COUPLE OF MESOSCALE HOURLY MODEL RUNS ARE SHIELDING THE ERN
PART OF OUR CWA IN THE NEAR NEAR TERM FROM MUCH PCPN. MORE BREAKS
ARE APPEARING IN THE CLOUDS AS THE VSB SATL IMAGERY IS SHOWING
LOWER CLOUDS ADVANCING TO THE WEST WHILE HIGHER CLOUDS ARE MOVING
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. SO EVENING ADJUSTMENT ARE TO LOWER POPS
EAST AND KEEP THEM AS IS WEST. TEMPERATURES ARE ON/CLOSE TO
SCHEDULE. BANKING ON CLOUDS REFORMING EAST, OR WE MAY BE A BIT TOO
HIGH DURING THE EVENING.

CALLING IT SCT SHOWERS (NUMEROUS FAR W SECTION OF OUR CWA) THRU
TONIGHT...MOST OF IT W NJ E PA AND THE DELMARVA.

AMOUNTS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS THAN WHAT OUR GRIDDED QPF
HAS AND IT COULD RAIN BRIEFLY HEAVY WITH ISOLATED 0.75 INCH AMTS
POSSIBLE IN E PA BY MORNING DUE TO PWAT STILL 1.5 MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. SLIGHTLY HIGHER 1 INCH AMTS POSSIBLE MD E SHORE AND FAR S
DE WHERE MORE INSTABILITY AND HIGHER PWAT.

NO THUNDER IN THE FCST ATTM SINCE MOST OF THE INSTABILITY HAS
RECEDED WWD JUST W OF OUR CWA WITH COOLER ELY FLOW INFLUX AND
SKYCOVER.

FCST TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND WINDS ARE THE 12Z/22 50 50 BLEND OF THE
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
DEEP MOISTURE SATURDAY WITH WEAK VV DUE TO TROUGH AXIS ALOFT SWINGING
SWD FROM NYS AS WELL AS WEAK LOW LVL UPSLOPE FLOW COULD RESULT IN
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR A TIME DURING THE MORNING AND MAKE IT
A BLEAK SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY AFTN SHOULD START DRYING OUT WITH BRIGHTENING SKIES
TOWARD 6 PM.

ENE WIND MAX GUST AROUND 20 MPH.

50 50 BLENDED 12Z/22 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE ONLY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE LONG TERM PART OF THE FCST
WILL BE ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA...MOSTLY
SOUTH...SATURDAY EVENING. THE UPPER H5 TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE
AREA AND PLENTY OF DRIER AND SUBSIDING AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND IT.
WE WILL JUST KEEP THE SLGT CHC POPS FOR SRN NJ AND THE
DELMARVA...AS WAS ALREADY IN THERE. TEMPS SAT NIGHT MID/UPPER 50S
NORTH/WEST AND LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS SLATED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD UP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SUN AND IT WILL ROTATE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC REGION NEXT WEEK. A STRONG SFC HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE
AREA MON. THIS WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER WITH COOL TEMPS SUN/MON.
TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL FOR TUE AND THEN CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL
FOR WED/THU.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA WILL ARRIVE THU AND
THEN MOVE AWAY FRI. IT WILL PROBABLY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA. WE HAVE JUST PAINTED SOME SLGT CHC POPS FOR NOW. A TROPICAL
SYSTEM MAY MOVE UP FROM THE BAHAMAS TUESDAY NORTH NORTHEAST WED-THU.
SINCE IT WILL BE STAYING WELL EAST OF THE AREA...IT IS NOT EXPECTED
TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER...EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME ENHANCED
SEAS. WE WILL BE WATCHING ANY DEVELOPMENTS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 00Z TAFS CONTINUED THE IDEA OF CIGS LOWERING TO AROUND IFR
THRESHOLD LATE TONIGHT.

FOR THIS EVENING, EXPECTING A MVFR CIG TO FORM IF NOT ALREADY
PRESENT. MENTION OF SHOWERS LATE AT KRDG. MOST OF THEM HAVE BEEN
DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING OUR AREA. LIGHT EAST WINDS.

OVERNIGHT, GREATER CONFIDENCE OF A LOWER CIG FORMING. NOT AS
CONFIDENT ABOUT LOW MVFR VS IFR. IFR CIGS WERE KEPT AT TERMINALS
NEAR THE DELAWARE BAY AND WITH SOME ELEVATION, UPSLOPE FLOW. ANOTHER
SHOT OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH. HIGHEST CONFID AT
KABE. SOME MVFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG MAY ALSO OCCUR LATE. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE EAST.

ON SATURDAY, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE MORNING
CONTINUES. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SOME WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BE
AROUND. BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. BEST CHANCE WESTERN
AIRPORTS/TERMINALS DURING THE MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BACK SLIGHTLY
MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST, WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH 4 FEET AND WINDS MAY
BEGIN TO GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS EARLY FLOW INCREASES AS
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

SATURDAY...SCA ISSUED FOR THE SNJ AND DE ATLC WATERS AND FOR NOW
NONE NNJ WATERS. HOWEVER...THIS FCST HAS TRIMMED SEA STATE BY 1
FOOT ON SATURDAY AND WE MAY BE TOO CONSERVATIVE. IN WHICH CASE MAY
NEED TO EXPAND THE SCA INTO THE NNJ WATERS ON ONE OF OUR NEXT FCST
SHIFTS.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...SCA FLAG CONTINUES SAT NIGHT AND THRU 800 AM SUN FOR
THE SRN NJ AND DEL COASTAL WATERS. NEAR SCA CONDITIONS FURTHER NORTH.
FAIR WEATHER.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
LOW ENHANCED RISK THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS PROBABLY INCREASES
TO MODERATE THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE NJ COAST WITH EASTERLY SWELL OF 4
FEET AT 7 SECONDS COMBINING WITH THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW OF 15
KT TO BUILD THE WATER BEHIND THE SAND BARS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ452>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GIGI
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG






000
FXUS61 KPHI 222335
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
735 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE MOVING AWAY THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST COUPLE OF MESOSCALE HOURLY MODEL RUNS ARE SHIELDING THE ERN
PART OF OUR CWA IN THE NEAR NEAR TERM FROM MUCH PCPN. MORE BREAKS
ARE APPEARING IN THE CLOUDS AS THE VSB SATL IMAGERY IS SHOWING
LOWER CLOUDS ADVANCING TO THE WEST WHILE HIGHER CLOUDS ARE MOVING
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. SO EVENING ADJUSTMENT ARE TO LOWER POPS
EAST AND KEEP THEM AS IS WEST. TEMPERATURES ARE ON/CLOSE TO
SCHEDULE. BANKING ON CLOUDS REFORMING EAST, OR WE MAY BE A BIT TOO
HIGH DURING THE EVENING.

CALLING IT SCT SHOWERS (NUMEROUS FAR W SECTION OF OUR CWA) THRU
TONIGHT...MOST OF IT W NJ E PA AND THE DELMARVA.

AMOUNTS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS THAN WHAT OUR GRIDDED QPF
HAS AND IT COULD RAIN BRIEFLY HEAVY WITH ISOLATED 0.75 INCH AMTS
POSSIBLE IN E PA BY MORNING DUE TO PWAT STILL 1.5 MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. SLIGHTLY HIGHER 1 INCH AMTS POSSIBLE MD E SHORE AND FAR S
DE WHERE MORE INSTABILITY AND HIGHER PWAT.

NO THUNDER IN THE FCST ATTM SINCE MOST OF THE INSTABILITY HAS
RECEDED WWD JUST W OF OUR CWA WITH COOLER ELY FLOW INFLUX AND
SKYCOVER.

FCST TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND WINDS ARE THE 12Z/22 50 50 BLEND OF THE
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
DEEP MOISTURE SATURDAY WITH WEAK VV DUE TO TROUGH AXIS ALOFT SWINGING
SWD FROM NYS AS WELL AS WEAK LOW LVL UPSLOPE FLOW COULD RESULT IN
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR A TIME DURING THE MORNING AND MAKE IT
A BLEAK SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY AFTN SHOULD START DRYING OUT WITH BRIGHTENING SKIES
TOWARD 6 PM.

ENE WIND MAX GUST AROUND 20 MPH.

50 50 BLENDED 12Z/22 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE ONLY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE LONG TERM PART OF THE FCST
WILL BE ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA...MOSTLY
SOUTH...SATURDAY EVENING. THE UPPER H5 TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE
AREA AND PLENTY OF DRIER AND SUBSIDING AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND IT.
WE WILL JUST KEEP THE SLGT CHC POPS FOR SRN NJ AND THE
DELMARVA...AS WAS ALREADY IN THERE. TEMPS SAT NIGHT MID/UPPER 50S
NORTH/WEST AND LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS SLATED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD UP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SUN AND IT WILL ROTATE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC REGION NEXT WEEK. A STRONG SFC HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE
AREA MON. THIS WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER WITH COOL TEMPS SUN/MON.
TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL FOR TUE AND THEN CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL
FOR WED/THU.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA WILL ARRIVE THU AND
THEN MOVE AWAY FRI. IT WILL PROBABLY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA. WE HAVE JUST PAINTED SOME SLGT CHC POPS FOR NOW. A TROPICAL
SYSTEM MAY MOVE UP FROM THE BAHAMAS TUESDAY NORTH NORTHEAST WED-THU.
SINCE IT WILL BE STAYING WELL EAST OF THE AREA...IT IS NOT EXPECTED
TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER...EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME ENHANCED
SEAS. WE WILL BE WATCHING ANY DEVELOPMENTS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 00Z TAFS CONTINUED THE IDEA OF CIGS LOWERING TO AROUND IFR
THRESHOLD LATE TONIGHT.

FOR THIS EVENING, EXPECTING A MVFR CIG TO FORM IF NOT ALREADY
PRESENT. MENTION OF SHOWERS LATE AT KRDG. MOST OF THEM HAVE BEEN
DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING OUR AREA. LIGHT EAST WINDS.

OVERNIGHT, GREATER CONFIDENCE OF A LOWER CIG FORMING. NOT AS
CONFIDENT ABOUT LOW MVFR VS IFR. IFR CIGS WERE KEPT AT TERMINALS
NEAR THE DELAWARE BAY AND WITH SOME ELEVATION, UPSLOPE FLOW. ANOTHER
SHOT OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH. HIGHEST CONFID AT
KABE. SOME MVFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG MAY ALSO OCCUR LATE. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE EAST.

ON SATURDAY, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE MORNING
CONTINUES. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SOME WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BE
AROUND. BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. BEST CHANCE WESTERN
AIRPORTS/TERMINALS DURING THE MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BACK SLIGHTLY
MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST, WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH 4 FEET AND WINDS MAY
BEGIN TO GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS EARLY FLOW INCREASES AS
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

SATURDAY...SCA ISSUED FOR THE SNJ AND DE ATLC WATERS AND FOR NOW
NONE NNJ WATERS. HOWEVER...THIS FCST HAS TRIMMED SEA STATE BY 1
FOOT ON SATURDAY AND WE MAY BE TOO CONSERVATIVE. IN WHICH CASE MAY
NEED TO EXPAND THE SCA INTO THE NNJ WATERS ON ONE OF OUR NEXT FCST
SHIFTS.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...SCA FLAG CONTINUES SAT NIGHT AND THRU 800 AM SUN FOR
THE SRN NJ AND DEL COASTAL WATERS. NEAR SCA CONDITIONS FURTHER NORTH.
FAIR WEATHER.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
LOW ENHANCED RISK THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS PROBABLY INCREASES
TO MODERATE THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE NJ COAST WITH EASTERLY SWELL OF 4
FEET AT 7 SECONDS COMBINING WITH THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW OF 15
KT TO BUILD THE WATER BEHIND THE SAND BARS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ452>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GIGI
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 222220 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
620 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WARM AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
620PM UPDATE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MUCH
OF THE ACTIVITY IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN...SO ONCE THE SUN SETS EXPECT
THE ACTIVITY TO DWINDLE. TEMPS...POPS AND CLOUDS HAVE ALL BEEN
UPDATED FOR OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STILL INCREASE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY FINALLY SAGS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. LINGERING CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT CAPE
VALUES RATHER LOW TODAY...EVEN WITH BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO NEAR
30 KTS. WITH THIS IN MIND...OPTED TO KEEP ONLY CHANCE THUNDER
WORDING...AND THINK THAT FOR THE MOST PART STORMS WILL REMAIN
UNDER SEVERE THRESHOLDS.

WHILE PWATS IN OUR SOUTHERNMOST ZONES WILL STILL BE IN THE 2 INCH
RANGE...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THESE VALUES IS EXPECTED. WILL
MAINTAIN THE MENTION FOR ISOLATED FLOODING IN THE HWO SINCE ANY
TRAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER ALREADY SATURATED AREAS COULD
CAUSE PROBLEMS...BUT OVERALL THINK THE THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL
VERSUS THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.

LOSS OF HEATING AS WELL AS SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF FRONT WILL
ALLOW COVERAGE TO WANE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE TOMORROW. WITH THE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ONLY CHANCE POPS WERE
CARRIED. GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES...WHICH KEEPS US CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN EXITING SHRTWV WL CONT LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS INTO SAT NGT...THEN
STG RIDGING WL BLD IN ACRS THE GT LKS/OH VLY RGN THRU MON WITH DRY
WEA EXPD. TEMPS WL AVG A FEW DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING WL PERSIST INTO MID WK WITH DRY AND WRM WEA. A CROSSING
SHRTWV AND CDFNT IS PROGGED FOR A THU PASSAGE WITH CHC POPS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS...FOLLOWED BY BLDG HIGH PRES TO FINISH THE WK. ABV AVG
TEMPS WL RTN TO NR OR BLO AVG LVLS AFT THE LT WK FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OCNL MVFR CU/SC CIGS ARE EXPD TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY LT AFTN. A
CROSSING DISTURBANCE AND SFC BNDRY WL GENERATE SCT SHWRS AND PSBLY
A TSTM...SO WL MAINTAIN A VCSH MENTION IN THE TAFS. WITH LLVL
MOISTURE POOLING...EXPG IFR FOG TO DVLP OVRNGT INTO ERLY SAT AS
WELL. A PD OF MVFR DIURNAL CU CIGS ARE EXPD SAT MRNG BEFORE VFR
RTNS BY AFTN. A SHWR IS PSBL SAT BUT COVG EXPD TO BE TOO LOW FOR A
TAF MENTION ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ERLY SUN MRNG FOG RSTRNS ARE PSBL.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 222220 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
620 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WARM AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
620PM UPDATE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MUCH
OF THE ACTIVITY IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN...SO ONCE THE SUN SETS EXPECT
THE ACTIVITY TO DWINDLE. TEMPS...POPS AND CLOUDS HAVE ALL BEEN
UPDATED FOR OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STILL INCREASE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY FINALLY SAGS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. LINGERING CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT CAPE
VALUES RATHER LOW TODAY...EVEN WITH BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO NEAR
30 KTS. WITH THIS IN MIND...OPTED TO KEEP ONLY CHANCE THUNDER
WORDING...AND THINK THAT FOR THE MOST PART STORMS WILL REMAIN
UNDER SEVERE THRESHOLDS.

WHILE PWATS IN OUR SOUTHERNMOST ZONES WILL STILL BE IN THE 2 INCH
RANGE...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THESE VALUES IS EXPECTED. WILL
MAINTAIN THE MENTION FOR ISOLATED FLOODING IN THE HWO SINCE ANY
TRAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER ALREADY SATURATED AREAS COULD
CAUSE PROBLEMS...BUT OVERALL THINK THE THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL
VERSUS THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.

LOSS OF HEATING AS WELL AS SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF FRONT WILL
ALLOW COVERAGE TO WANE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE TOMORROW. WITH THE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ONLY CHANCE POPS WERE
CARRIED. GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES...WHICH KEEPS US CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN EXITING SHRTWV WL CONT LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS INTO SAT NGT...THEN
STG RIDGING WL BLD IN ACRS THE GT LKS/OH VLY RGN THRU MON WITH DRY
WEA EXPD. TEMPS WL AVG A FEW DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING WL PERSIST INTO MID WK WITH DRY AND WRM WEA. A CROSSING
SHRTWV AND CDFNT IS PROGGED FOR A THU PASSAGE WITH CHC POPS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS...FOLLOWED BY BLDG HIGH PRES TO FINISH THE WK. ABV AVG
TEMPS WL RTN TO NR OR BLO AVG LVLS AFT THE LT WK FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OCNL MVFR CU/SC CIGS ARE EXPD TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY LT AFTN. A
CROSSING DISTURBANCE AND SFC BNDRY WL GENERATE SCT SHWRS AND PSBLY
A TSTM...SO WL MAINTAIN A VCSH MENTION IN THE TAFS. WITH LLVL
MOISTURE POOLING...EXPG IFR FOG TO DVLP OVRNGT INTO ERLY SAT AS
WELL. A PD OF MVFR DIURNAL CU CIGS ARE EXPD SAT MRNG BEFORE VFR
RTNS BY AFTN. A SHWR IS PSBL SAT BUT COVG EXPD TO BE TOO LOW FOR A
TAF MENTION ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ERLY SUN MRNG FOG RSTRNS ARE PSBL.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 222220 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
620 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WARM AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
620PM UPDATE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MUCH
OF THE ACTIVITY IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN...SO ONCE THE SUN SETS EXPECT
THE ACTIVITY TO DWINDLE. TEMPS...POPS AND CLOUDS HAVE ALL BEEN
UPDATED FOR OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STILL INCREASE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY FINALLY SAGS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. LINGERING CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT CAPE
VALUES RATHER LOW TODAY...EVEN WITH BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO NEAR
30 KTS. WITH THIS IN MIND...OPTED TO KEEP ONLY CHANCE THUNDER
WORDING...AND THINK THAT FOR THE MOST PART STORMS WILL REMAIN
UNDER SEVERE THRESHOLDS.

WHILE PWATS IN OUR SOUTHERNMOST ZONES WILL STILL BE IN THE 2 INCH
RANGE...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THESE VALUES IS EXPECTED. WILL
MAINTAIN THE MENTION FOR ISOLATED FLOODING IN THE HWO SINCE ANY
TRAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER ALREADY SATURATED AREAS COULD
CAUSE PROBLEMS...BUT OVERALL THINK THE THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL
VERSUS THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.

LOSS OF HEATING AS WELL AS SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF FRONT WILL
ALLOW COVERAGE TO WANE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE TOMORROW. WITH THE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ONLY CHANCE POPS WERE
CARRIED. GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES...WHICH KEEPS US CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN EXITING SHRTWV WL CONT LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS INTO SAT NGT...THEN
STG RIDGING WL BLD IN ACRS THE GT LKS/OH VLY RGN THRU MON WITH DRY
WEA EXPD. TEMPS WL AVG A FEW DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING WL PERSIST INTO MID WK WITH DRY AND WRM WEA. A CROSSING
SHRTWV AND CDFNT IS PROGGED FOR A THU PASSAGE WITH CHC POPS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS...FOLLOWED BY BLDG HIGH PRES TO FINISH THE WK. ABV AVG
TEMPS WL RTN TO NR OR BLO AVG LVLS AFT THE LT WK FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OCNL MVFR CU/SC CIGS ARE EXPD TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY LT AFTN. A
CROSSING DISTURBANCE AND SFC BNDRY WL GENERATE SCT SHWRS AND PSBLY
A TSTM...SO WL MAINTAIN A VCSH MENTION IN THE TAFS. WITH LLVL
MOISTURE POOLING...EXPG IFR FOG TO DVLP OVRNGT INTO ERLY SAT AS
WELL. A PD OF MVFR DIURNAL CU CIGS ARE EXPD SAT MRNG BEFORE VFR
RTNS BY AFTN. A SHWR IS PSBL SAT BUT COVG EXPD TO BE TOO LOW FOR A
TAF MENTION ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ERLY SUN MRNG FOG RSTRNS ARE PSBL.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 222220 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
620 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WARM AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
620PM UPDATE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MUCH
OF THE ACTIVITY IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN...SO ONCE THE SUN SETS EXPECT
THE ACTIVITY TO DWINDLE. TEMPS...POPS AND CLOUDS HAVE ALL BEEN
UPDATED FOR OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STILL INCREASE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY FINALLY SAGS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. LINGERING CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT CAPE
VALUES RATHER LOW TODAY...EVEN WITH BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO NEAR
30 KTS. WITH THIS IN MIND...OPTED TO KEEP ONLY CHANCE THUNDER
WORDING...AND THINK THAT FOR THE MOST PART STORMS WILL REMAIN
UNDER SEVERE THRESHOLDS.

WHILE PWATS IN OUR SOUTHERNMOST ZONES WILL STILL BE IN THE 2 INCH
RANGE...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THESE VALUES IS EXPECTED. WILL
MAINTAIN THE MENTION FOR ISOLATED FLOODING IN THE HWO SINCE ANY
TRAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER ALREADY SATURATED AREAS COULD
CAUSE PROBLEMS...BUT OVERALL THINK THE THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL
VERSUS THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.

LOSS OF HEATING AS WELL AS SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF FRONT WILL
ALLOW COVERAGE TO WANE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE TOMORROW. WITH THE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ONLY CHANCE POPS WERE
CARRIED. GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES...WHICH KEEPS US CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN EXITING SHRTWV WL CONT LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS INTO SAT NGT...THEN
STG RIDGING WL BLD IN ACRS THE GT LKS/OH VLY RGN THRU MON WITH DRY
WEA EXPD. TEMPS WL AVG A FEW DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING WL PERSIST INTO MID WK WITH DRY AND WRM WEA. A CROSSING
SHRTWV AND CDFNT IS PROGGED FOR A THU PASSAGE WITH CHC POPS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS...FOLLOWED BY BLDG HIGH PRES TO FINISH THE WK. ABV AVG
TEMPS WL RTN TO NR OR BLO AVG LVLS AFT THE LT WK FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OCNL MVFR CU/SC CIGS ARE EXPD TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY LT AFTN. A
CROSSING DISTURBANCE AND SFC BNDRY WL GENERATE SCT SHWRS AND PSBLY
A TSTM...SO WL MAINTAIN A VCSH MENTION IN THE TAFS. WITH LLVL
MOISTURE POOLING...EXPG IFR FOG TO DVLP OVRNGT INTO ERLY SAT AS
WELL. A PD OF MVFR DIURNAL CU CIGS ARE EXPD SAT MRNG BEFORE VFR
RTNS BY AFTN. A SHWR IS PSBL SAT BUT COVG EXPD TO BE TOO LOW FOR A
TAF MENTION ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ERLY SUN MRNG FOG RSTRNS ARE PSBL.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 222150
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
550 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND SLOWLY BUILDS INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE SETTLING OVER THE
PIEDMONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE VA/NC
COAST...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING BACK THROUGH ERN VA AND
THEN NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL PA. ALOFT...NW MID/UPPER FLOW CONTINUES
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS HAS BEEN FROM THE NRN
NECK TO THE ERN SHORE. THIS IS OCCURRING IMMEDIATELY NE OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS COMBINED WITH
MODEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER JET MAX. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS OCCURRING WITH RADAR ESTIMATED RATES OF 1-2IN/HR. NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS SEEM TO HANDLE THE OMEGA PROFILE RATHER WELL AND INDICATE
THIS LIFT DIMINISHES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER
WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FORCING FOR ASCENT
WANES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND HENCE POPS DIMINISH ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER. THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
CHC POPS ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
SATURDAY AS THE REMNANT BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR THE LOCAL AREA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WILL BE CONFINED AWAY FROM THE COASTS DUE TO
ENE FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE HIGH
SURGES SSW OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS SETTLING OVER THE PIEDMONT BY MONDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A
DRYING TREND ALONG WITH A NE WIND THAT SHOULD BE RATHER BREEZY ALONG
THE COAST. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.

HIGHS WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
(AROUND -1 ST DEV). SATURDAY HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 80-85 (UPPER 70S
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST)...WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
LOW/MID 60S EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
IS EXPECTED TO KEEP TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY WELL OFF THE COAST BY
ABOUT 500-600 MILES. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A COOLER AIRMASS
OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED BEFORE THE RIDGE AXES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT
ALOFT BEGIN TO SHIFT JUST EAST OF THE FA...AND MOVING OFFSHORE BY
THU. THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIODS DUE TO WELL-ESTABLISHED SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILE...HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE FAR SE
VA/NE NC COAST ON WED DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR WRAPAROUND MOISTURE
FROM THE TROPICAL SYSTEM PASSING WELL TO THE EAST. HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL FROM MON NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT
(LOWS IN THE 60S...UPPER 50S FAR WRN COUNTIES/HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
80S...MID-UPPER 70S BEACHES) AND THEN REBOUND TWD SEASONAL NORMALS
THU/THU NIGHT (HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S...UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S
BEACHES/LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S...AROUND 70 BEACHES).

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRNTAL BNDRY IS STALLED OVR THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HI PRES
LOCATED OVR THE NE STATES. ISO/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED
MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY AND DURING THE EVENG HOURS...BUT CHANCE IS
NOT HI ENUF TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK...SHRA/TSTM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER FORECAST BEGINNING SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR DUE TO STRATUS OR FOG
WILL BE A POTENTIAL A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES ISSUED FOR COASTAL WATERS AND SRN CHES BAY SAT AFTN
THROUGH SUN.

A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SWD ACROSS THE SRN
WATERS TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. MEANWHILE...A
WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
SAT. NLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WILL BE COMMON AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THEN THEY WILL TURN TO THE N-NE BEHIND IT AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES DOWN OVER THE WATERS. A PERIOD OF PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS
WILL RESULT IN PROLONGED SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND
SRN CHES BAY...MAINLY DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS/WAVES (4-5FT/3-4FT
RESPECTIVELY). WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-20KT OCEAN AND 10-15KT
BAY/RIVERS/SOUND. GUSTS MAY REACH 25 KT AT TIMES OVER COASTAL
WATERS BUT MAIN FOCUS OF SCA WILL BE ON SEAS OF 5 FT. GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FETCH...IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SEAS TO REACH 6 FT
NEAR BUOY 44009 SAT EVENING DURING A WEAK PUSH OF CAA. CURRITUCK
SOUND AND THE MOUTH OF THE JAMES RIVER MAY BE EXPERIENCE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA WINDS (15-20KT) ON SUN FROM DAYBREAK UNTIL
SUNSET BUT DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES FOR THESE AREAS FOR
NOW. ALTHOUGH CURRENT HEADLINES END AT 8PM SUN NIGHT...THERE IS A
VERY GOOD CHANCE THAT SCA FLAGS WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH MON. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON/TUE BUT A TROPICAL SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ABOUT 500-600 MILES E-SE OF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST DURING THIS TIME. SWELL FROM THIS SYSTEM...IN ADDITION TO
CONTINUED ONSHORE WINDS...COULD KEEP SEAS ELEVATED THROUGH MON
BEFORE SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SATURDAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ656-
     658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...MAS/DAP
MARINE...BMD






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 222150
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
550 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND SLOWLY BUILDS INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE SETTLING OVER THE
PIEDMONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE VA/NC
COAST...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING BACK THROUGH ERN VA AND
THEN NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL PA. ALOFT...NW MID/UPPER FLOW CONTINUES
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS HAS BEEN FROM THE NRN
NECK TO THE ERN SHORE. THIS IS OCCURRING IMMEDIATELY NE OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS COMBINED WITH
MODEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER JET MAX. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS OCCURRING WITH RADAR ESTIMATED RATES OF 1-2IN/HR. NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS SEEM TO HANDLE THE OMEGA PROFILE RATHER WELL AND INDICATE
THIS LIFT DIMINISHES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER
WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FORCING FOR ASCENT
WANES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND HENCE POPS DIMINISH ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER. THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
CHC POPS ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
SATURDAY AS THE REMNANT BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR THE LOCAL AREA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WILL BE CONFINED AWAY FROM THE COASTS DUE TO
ENE FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE HIGH
SURGES SSW OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS SETTLING OVER THE PIEDMONT BY MONDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A
DRYING TREND ALONG WITH A NE WIND THAT SHOULD BE RATHER BREEZY ALONG
THE COAST. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.

HIGHS WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
(AROUND -1 ST DEV). SATURDAY HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 80-85 (UPPER 70S
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST)...WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
LOW/MID 60S EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
IS EXPECTED TO KEEP TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY WELL OFF THE COAST BY
ABOUT 500-600 MILES. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A COOLER AIRMASS
OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED BEFORE THE RIDGE AXES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT
ALOFT BEGIN TO SHIFT JUST EAST OF THE FA...AND MOVING OFFSHORE BY
THU. THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIODS DUE TO WELL-ESTABLISHED SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILE...HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE FAR SE
VA/NE NC COAST ON WED DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR WRAPAROUND MOISTURE
FROM THE TROPICAL SYSTEM PASSING WELL TO THE EAST. HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL FROM MON NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT
(LOWS IN THE 60S...UPPER 50S FAR WRN COUNTIES/HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
80S...MID-UPPER 70S BEACHES) AND THEN REBOUND TWD SEASONAL NORMALS
THU/THU NIGHT (HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S...UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S
BEACHES/LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S...AROUND 70 BEACHES).

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRNTAL BNDRY IS STALLED OVR THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HI PRES
LOCATED OVR THE NE STATES. ISO/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED
MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY AND DURING THE EVENG HOURS...BUT CHANCE IS
NOT HI ENUF TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK...SHRA/TSTM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER FORECAST BEGINNING SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR DUE TO STRATUS OR FOG
WILL BE A POTENTIAL A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES ISSUED FOR COASTAL WATERS AND SRN CHES BAY SAT AFTN
THROUGH SUN.

A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SWD ACROSS THE SRN
WATERS TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. MEANWHILE...A
WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
SAT. NLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WILL BE COMMON AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THEN THEY WILL TURN TO THE N-NE BEHIND IT AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES DOWN OVER THE WATERS. A PERIOD OF PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS
WILL RESULT IN PROLONGED SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND
SRN CHES BAY...MAINLY DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS/WAVES (4-5FT/3-4FT
RESPECTIVELY). WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-20KT OCEAN AND 10-15KT
BAY/RIVERS/SOUND. GUSTS MAY REACH 25 KT AT TIMES OVER COASTAL
WATERS BUT MAIN FOCUS OF SCA WILL BE ON SEAS OF 5 FT. GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FETCH...IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SEAS TO REACH 6 FT
NEAR BUOY 44009 SAT EVENING DURING A WEAK PUSH OF CAA. CURRITUCK
SOUND AND THE MOUTH OF THE JAMES RIVER MAY BE EXPERIENCE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA WINDS (15-20KT) ON SUN FROM DAYBREAK UNTIL
SUNSET BUT DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES FOR THESE AREAS FOR
NOW. ALTHOUGH CURRENT HEADLINES END AT 8PM SUN NIGHT...THERE IS A
VERY GOOD CHANCE THAT SCA FLAGS WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH MON. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON/TUE BUT A TROPICAL SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ABOUT 500-600 MILES E-SE OF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST DURING THIS TIME. SWELL FROM THIS SYSTEM...IN ADDITION TO
CONTINUED ONSHORE WINDS...COULD KEEP SEAS ELEVATED THROUGH MON
BEFORE SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SATURDAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ656-
     658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...MAS/DAP
MARINE...BMD







000
FXUS61 KPHI 222143
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
543 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE MOVING AWAY THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST COUPLE OF MESOSCALE HOURLY MODEL RUNS ARE SHIELDING THE ERN
PART OF OUR CWA IN THE NEAR NEAR TERM FROM MUCH PCPN. MORE BREAKS
ARE APPEARING IN THE CLOUDS AS THE VSB SATL IMAGERY IS SHOWING
LOWER CLOUDS ADVANCING TO THE WEST WHILE HIGHER CLOUDS ARE MOVING
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. SO EVENING ADJUSTMENT ARE TO LOWER POPS
EAST AND KEEP THEM AS IS WEST. TEMPERATURES ARE ON/CLOSE TO
SCHEDULE. BANKING ON CLOUDS REFORMING EAST, OR WE MAY BE A BIT TOO
HIGH DURING THE EVENING.

CALLING IT SCT SHOWERS (NUMEROUS FAR W SECTION OF OUR CWA) THRU
TONIGHT...MOST OF IT W NJ E PA AND THE DELMARVA.

AMOUNTS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS THAN WHAT OUR GRIDDED QPF
HAS AND IT COULD RAIN BRIEFLY HEAVY WITH ISOLATED 0.75 INCH AMTS
POSSIBLE IN E PA BY MORNING DUE TO PWAT STILL 1.5 MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. SLIGHTLY HIGHER 1 INCH AMTS POSSIBLE MD E SHORE AND FAR S
DE WHERE MORE INSTABILITY AND HIGHER PWAT.

NO THUNDER IN THE FCST ATTM SINCE MOST OF THE INSTABILITY HAS
RECEDED WWD JUST W OF OUR CWA WITH COOLER ELY FLOW INFLUX AND
SKYCOVER.

FCST TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND WINDS ARE THE 12Z/22 50 50 BLEND OF THE
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
DEEP MOISTURE SATURDAY WITH WEAK VV DUE TO TROUGH AXIS ALOFT SWINGING
SWD FROM NYS AS WELL AS WEAK LOW LVL UPSLOPE FLOW COULD RESULT IN
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR A TIME DURING THE MORNING AND MAKE IT
A BLEAK SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY AFTN SHOULD START DRYING OUT WITH BRIGHTENING SKIES
TOWARD 6 PM.

ENE WIND MAX GUST AROUND 20 MPH.

50 50 BLENDED 12Z/22 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE ONLY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE LONG TERM PART OF THE FCST
WILL BE ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA...MOSTLY
SOUTH...SATURDAY EVENING. THE UPPER H5 TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE
AREA AND PLENTY OF DRIER AND SUBSIDING AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND IT.
WE WILL JUST KEEP THE SLGT CHC POPS FOR SRN NJ AND THE
DELMARVA...AS WAS ALREADY IN THERE. TEMPS SAT NIGHT MID/UPPER 50S
NORTH/WEST AND LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS SLATED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD UP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SUN AND IT WILL ROTATE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC REGION NEXT WEEK. A STRONG SFC HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE
AREA MON. THIS WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER WITH COOL TEMPS SUN/MON.
TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL FOR TUE AND THEN CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL
FOR WED/THU.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA WILL ARRIVE THU AND
THEN MOVE AWAY FRI. IT WILL PROBABLY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA. WE HAVE JUST PAINTED SOME SLGT CHC POPS FOR NOW. A TROPICAL
SYSTEM MAY MOVE UP FROM THE BAHAMAS TUESDAY NORTH NORTHEAST WED-THU.
SINCE IT WILL BE STAYING WELL EAST OF THE AREA...IT IS NOT EXPECTED
TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER...EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME ENHANCED
SEAS. WE WILL BE WATCHING ANY DEVELOPMENTS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR AT TIMES WITH GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR IFR CONDS WHEN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ARE OCCURRING. LIGHT E OR NE FLOW.

SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY...BECOMING VFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED OR NUMEROUS SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING DIMINISHING DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ENE WIND WITH MAX GUST 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH 4 FEET AND WINDS MAY
BEGIN TO GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS EARLY FLOW INCREASES AS
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

SATURDAY...SCA ISSUED FOR THE SNJ AND DE ATLC WATERS AND FOR NOW
NONE NNJ WATERS. HOWEVER...THIS FCST HAS TRIMMED SEA STATE BY 1
FOOT ON SATURDAY AND WE MAY BE TOO CONSERVATIVE. IN WHICH CASE MAY
NEED TO EXPAND THE SCA INTO THE NNJ WATERS ON ONE OF OUR NEXT FCST
SHIFTS.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...SCA FLAG CONTINUES SAT NIGHT AND THRU 800 AM SUN FOR
THE SRN NJ AND DEL COASTAL WATERS. NEAR SCA CONDITIONS FURTHER NORTH.
FAIR WEATHER.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
LOW ENHANCED RISK THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS PROBABLY INCREASES
TO MODERATE THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE NJ COAST WITH EASTERLY SWELL OF 4
FEET AT 7 SECONDS COMBINING WITH THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW OF 15
KT TO BUILD THE WATER BEHIND THE SAND BARS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ452>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GIGI
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG






000
FXUS61 KPHI 222143
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
543 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE MOVING AWAY THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST COUPLE OF MESOSCALE HOURLY MODEL RUNS ARE SHIELDING THE ERN
PART OF OUR CWA IN THE NEAR NEAR TERM FROM MUCH PCPN. MORE BREAKS
ARE APPEARING IN THE CLOUDS AS THE VSB SATL IMAGERY IS SHOWING
LOWER CLOUDS ADVANCING TO THE WEST WHILE HIGHER CLOUDS ARE MOVING
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. SO EVENING ADJUSTMENT ARE TO LOWER POPS
EAST AND KEEP THEM AS IS WEST. TEMPERATURES ARE ON/CLOSE TO
SCHEDULE. BANKING ON CLOUDS REFORMING EAST, OR WE MAY BE A BIT TOO
HIGH DURING THE EVENING.

CALLING IT SCT SHOWERS (NUMEROUS FAR W SECTION OF OUR CWA) THRU
TONIGHT...MOST OF IT W NJ E PA AND THE DELMARVA.

AMOUNTS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS THAN WHAT OUR GRIDDED QPF
HAS AND IT COULD RAIN BRIEFLY HEAVY WITH ISOLATED 0.75 INCH AMTS
POSSIBLE IN E PA BY MORNING DUE TO PWAT STILL 1.5 MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. SLIGHTLY HIGHER 1 INCH AMTS POSSIBLE MD E SHORE AND FAR S
DE WHERE MORE INSTABILITY AND HIGHER PWAT.

NO THUNDER IN THE FCST ATTM SINCE MOST OF THE INSTABILITY HAS
RECEDED WWD JUST W OF OUR CWA WITH COOLER ELY FLOW INFLUX AND
SKYCOVER.

FCST TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND WINDS ARE THE 12Z/22 50 50 BLEND OF THE
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
DEEP MOISTURE SATURDAY WITH WEAK VV DUE TO TROUGH AXIS ALOFT SWINGING
SWD FROM NYS AS WELL AS WEAK LOW LVL UPSLOPE FLOW COULD RESULT IN
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR A TIME DURING THE MORNING AND MAKE IT
A BLEAK SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY AFTN SHOULD START DRYING OUT WITH BRIGHTENING SKIES
TOWARD 6 PM.

ENE WIND MAX GUST AROUND 20 MPH.

50 50 BLENDED 12Z/22 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE ONLY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE LONG TERM PART OF THE FCST
WILL BE ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA...MOSTLY
SOUTH...SATURDAY EVENING. THE UPPER H5 TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE
AREA AND PLENTY OF DRIER AND SUBSIDING AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND IT.
WE WILL JUST KEEP THE SLGT CHC POPS FOR SRN NJ AND THE
DELMARVA...AS WAS ALREADY IN THERE. TEMPS SAT NIGHT MID/UPPER 50S
NORTH/WEST AND LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS SLATED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD UP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SUN AND IT WILL ROTATE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC REGION NEXT WEEK. A STRONG SFC HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE
AREA MON. THIS WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER WITH COOL TEMPS SUN/MON.
TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL FOR TUE AND THEN CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL
FOR WED/THU.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA WILL ARRIVE THU AND
THEN MOVE AWAY FRI. IT WILL PROBABLY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA. WE HAVE JUST PAINTED SOME SLGT CHC POPS FOR NOW. A TROPICAL
SYSTEM MAY MOVE UP FROM THE BAHAMAS TUESDAY NORTH NORTHEAST WED-THU.
SINCE IT WILL BE STAYING WELL EAST OF THE AREA...IT IS NOT EXPECTED
TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER...EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME ENHANCED
SEAS. WE WILL BE WATCHING ANY DEVELOPMENTS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR AT TIMES WITH GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR IFR CONDS WHEN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ARE OCCURRING. LIGHT E OR NE FLOW.

SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY...BECOMING VFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED OR NUMEROUS SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING DIMINISHING DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ENE WIND WITH MAX GUST 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH 4 FEET AND WINDS MAY
BEGIN TO GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS EARLY FLOW INCREASES AS
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

SATURDAY...SCA ISSUED FOR THE SNJ AND DE ATLC WATERS AND FOR NOW
NONE NNJ WATERS. HOWEVER...THIS FCST HAS TRIMMED SEA STATE BY 1
FOOT ON SATURDAY AND WE MAY BE TOO CONSERVATIVE. IN WHICH CASE MAY
NEED TO EXPAND THE SCA INTO THE NNJ WATERS ON ONE OF OUR NEXT FCST
SHIFTS.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...SCA FLAG CONTINUES SAT NIGHT AND THRU 800 AM SUN FOR
THE SRN NJ AND DEL COASTAL WATERS. NEAR SCA CONDITIONS FURTHER NORTH.
FAIR WEATHER.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
LOW ENHANCED RISK THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS PROBABLY INCREASES
TO MODERATE THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE NJ COAST WITH EASTERLY SWELL OF 4
FEET AT 7 SECONDS COMBINING WITH THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW OF 15
KT TO BUILD THE WATER BEHIND THE SAND BARS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ452>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GIGI
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221959
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
359 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WARM AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STILL INCREASE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY FINALLY
SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. LINGERING CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT
CAPE VALUES RATHER LOW TODAY...EVEN WITH BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO
NEAR 30 KTS. WITH THIS IN MIND...OPTED TO KEEP ONLY CHANCE THUNDER
WORDING...AND THINK THAT FOR THE MOST PART STORMS WILL REMAIN
UNDER SEVERE THRESHOLDS.

WHILE PWATS IN OUR SOUTHERNMOST ZONES WILL STILL BE IN THE 2 INCH
RANGE...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THESE VALUES IS EXPECTED. WILL
MAINTAIN THE MENTION FOR ISOLATED FLOODING IN THE HWO SINCE ANY
TRAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER ALREADY SATURATED AREAS COULD
CAUSE PROBLEMS...BUT OVERALL THINK THE THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL
VERSUS THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.

LOSS OF HEATING AS WELL AS SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF FRONT WILL
ALLOW COVERAGE TO WANE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE TOMORROW. WITH THE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ONLY CHANCE POPS WERE
CARRIED. GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES...WHICH KEEPS US CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN EXITING SHRTWV WL CONT LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS INTO SAT NGT...THEN
STG RIDGING WL BLD IN ACRS THE GT LKS/OH VLY RGN THRU MON WITH DRY
WEA EXPD. TEMPS WL AVG A FEW DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING WL PERSIST INTO MID WK WITH DRY AND WRM WEA. A CROSSING
SHRTWV AND CDFNT IS PROGGED FOR A THU PASSAGE WITH CHC POPS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS...FOLLOWED BY BLDG HIGH PRES TO FINISH THE WK. ABV AVG
TEMPS WL RTN TO NR OR BLO AVG LVLS AFT THE LT WK FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OCNL MVFR CU/SC CIGS ARE EXPD TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY LT AFTN. A
CROSSING DISTURBANCE AND SFC BNDRY WL GENERATE SCT SHWRS AND PSBLY
A TSTM...SO WL MAINTAIN A VCSH MENTION IN THE TAFS. WITH LLVL
MOISTURE POOLING...EXPG IFR FOG TO DVLP OVRNGT INTO ERLY SAT AS
WELL. A PD OF MVFR DIURNAL CU CIGS ARE EXPD SAT MRNG BEFORE VFR
RTNS BY AFTN. A SHWR IS PSBL SAT BUT COVG EXPD TO BE TOO LOW FOR A
TAF MENTION ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ERLY SUN MRNG FOG RSTRNS ARE PSBL.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221959
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
359 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WARM AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STILL INCREASE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY FINALLY
SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. LINGERING CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT
CAPE VALUES RATHER LOW TODAY...EVEN WITH BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO
NEAR 30 KTS. WITH THIS IN MIND...OPTED TO KEEP ONLY CHANCE THUNDER
WORDING...AND THINK THAT FOR THE MOST PART STORMS WILL REMAIN
UNDER SEVERE THRESHOLDS.

WHILE PWATS IN OUR SOUTHERNMOST ZONES WILL STILL BE IN THE 2 INCH
RANGE...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THESE VALUES IS EXPECTED. WILL
MAINTAIN THE MENTION FOR ISOLATED FLOODING IN THE HWO SINCE ANY
TRAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER ALREADY SATURATED AREAS COULD
CAUSE PROBLEMS...BUT OVERALL THINK THE THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL
VERSUS THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.

LOSS OF HEATING AS WELL AS SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF FRONT WILL
ALLOW COVERAGE TO WANE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE TOMORROW. WITH THE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ONLY CHANCE POPS WERE
CARRIED. GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES...WHICH KEEPS US CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN EXITING SHRTWV WL CONT LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS INTO SAT NGT...THEN
STG RIDGING WL BLD IN ACRS THE GT LKS/OH VLY RGN THRU MON WITH DRY
WEA EXPD. TEMPS WL AVG A FEW DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING WL PERSIST INTO MID WK WITH DRY AND WRM WEA. A CROSSING
SHRTWV AND CDFNT IS PROGGED FOR A THU PASSAGE WITH CHC POPS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS...FOLLOWED BY BLDG HIGH PRES TO FINISH THE WK. ABV AVG
TEMPS WL RTN TO NR OR BLO AVG LVLS AFT THE LT WK FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OCNL MVFR CU/SC CIGS ARE EXPD TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY LT AFTN. A
CROSSING DISTURBANCE AND SFC BNDRY WL GENERATE SCT SHWRS AND PSBLY
A TSTM...SO WL MAINTAIN A VCSH MENTION IN THE TAFS. WITH LLVL
MOISTURE POOLING...EXPG IFR FOG TO DVLP OVRNGT INTO ERLY SAT AS
WELL. A PD OF MVFR DIURNAL CU CIGS ARE EXPD SAT MRNG BEFORE VFR
RTNS BY AFTN. A SHWR IS PSBL SAT BUT COVG EXPD TO BE TOO LOW FOR A
TAF MENTION ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ERLY SUN MRNG FOG RSTRNS ARE PSBL.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221955
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
355 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND SLOWLY BUILDS INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE SETTLING OVER THE
PIEDMONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE VA/NC
COAST...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING BACK THROUGH ERN VA AND
THEN NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL PA. ALOFT...NW MID/UPPER FLOW CONTINUES
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS HAS BEEN FROM THE NRN
NECK TO THE ERN SHORE. THIS IS OCCURRING IMMEDIATELY NE OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS COMBINED WITH
MODEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER JET MAX. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS OCCURRING WITH RADAR ESTIMATED RATES OF 1-2IN/HR. NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS SEEM TO HANDLE THE OMEGA PROFILE RATHER WELL AND INDICATE
THIS LIFT DIMINISHES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER
WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FORCING FOR ASCENT
WANES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND HENCE POPS DIMINISH ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER. THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
CHC POPS ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
SATURDAY AS THE REMNANT BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR THE LOCAL AREA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WILL BE CONFINED AWAY FROM THE COASTS DUE TO
ENE FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE HIGH
SURGES SSW OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS SETTLING OVER THE PIEDMONT BY MONDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A
DRYING TREND ALONG WITH A NE WIND THAT SHOULD BE RATHER BREEZY ALONG
THE COAST. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.

HIGHS WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
(AROUND -1 ST DEV). SATURDAY HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 80-85 (UPPER 70S
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST)...WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
LOW/MID 60S EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
IS EXPECTED TO KEEP TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY WELL OFF THE COAST BY
ABOUT 500-600 MILES. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A COOLER AIRMASS
OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED BEFORE THE RIDGE AXES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT
ALOFT BEGIN TO SHIFT JUST EAST OF THE FA...AND MOVING OFFSHORE BY
THU. THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIODS DUE TO WELL-ESTABLISHED SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILE...HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE FAR SE
VA/NE NC COAST ON WED DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR WRAPAROUND MOISTURE
FROM THE TROPICAL SYSTEM PASSING WELL TO THE EAST. HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL FROM MON NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT
(LOWS IN THE 60S...UPPER 50S FAR WRN COUNTIES/HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
80S...MID-UPPER 70S BEACHES) AND THEN REBOUND TWD SEASONAL NORMALS
THU/THU NIGHT (HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S...UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S
BEACHES/LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S...AROUND 70 BEACHES).

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRNTAL BNDRY IS STALLED OVR THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HI PRES
LOCATED OVR THE NE STATES. ISO/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED
MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY AND DURING THE EVENG HOURS...BUT CHANCE IS
NOT HI ENUF TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK...SHRA/TSTM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER FORECAST BEGINNING SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR DUE TO STRATUS OR FOG
WILL BE A POTENTIAL A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES ISSUED FOR COASTAL WATERS AND SRN CHES BAY SAT AFTN
THROUGH SUN.

A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SWD ACROSS THE SRN
WATERS TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. MEANWHILE...A
WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
SAT. NLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WILL BE COMMON AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THEN THEY WILL TURN TO THE N-NE BEHIND IT AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES DOWN OVER THE WATERS. A PERIOD OF PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS
WILL RESULT IN PROLONGED SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND
SRN CHES BAY...MAINLY DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS/WAVES (4-5FT/3-4FT
RESPECTIVELY). WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-20KT OCEAN AND 10-15KT
BAY/RIVERS/SOUND. GUSTS MAY REACH 25 KT AT TIMES OVER COASTAL
WATERS BUT MAIN FOCUS OF SCA WILL BE ON SEAS OF 5 FT. GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FETCH...IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SEAS TO REACH 6 FT
NEAR BUOY 44009 SAT EVENING DURING A WEAK PUSH OF CAA. CURRITUCK
SOUND AND THE MOUTH OF THE JAMES RIVER MAY BE EXPERIENCE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA WINDS (15-20KT) ON SUN FROM DAYBREAK UNTIL
SUNSET BUT DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES FOR THESE AREAS FOR
NOW. ALTHOUGH CURRENT HEADLINES END AT 8PM SUN NIGHT...THERE IS A
VERY GOOD CHANCE THAT SCA FLAGS WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH MON. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON/TUE BUT A TROPICAL SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ABOUT 500-600 MILES E-SE OF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST DURING THIS TIME. SWELL FROM THIS SYSTEM...IN ADDITION TO
CONTINUED ONSHORE WINDS...COULD KEEP SEAS ELEVATED THROUGH MON
BEFORE SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SATURDAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ656-
     658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...MAS/DAP
MARINE...BMD




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221955
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
355 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND SLOWLY BUILDS INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE SETTLING OVER THE
PIEDMONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE VA/NC
COAST...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING BACK THROUGH ERN VA AND
THEN NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL PA. ALOFT...NW MID/UPPER FLOW CONTINUES
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS HAS BEEN FROM THE NRN
NECK TO THE ERN SHORE. THIS IS OCCURRING IMMEDIATELY NE OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS COMBINED WITH
MODEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER JET MAX. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS OCCURRING WITH RADAR ESTIMATED RATES OF 1-2IN/HR. NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS SEEM TO HANDLE THE OMEGA PROFILE RATHER WELL AND INDICATE
THIS LIFT DIMINISHES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER
WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FORCING FOR ASCENT
WANES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND HENCE POPS DIMINISH ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER. THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
CHC POPS ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
SATURDAY AS THE REMNANT BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR THE LOCAL AREA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WILL BE CONFINED AWAY FROM THE COASTS DUE TO
ENE FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE HIGH
SURGES SSW OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS SETTLING OVER THE PIEDMONT BY MONDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A
DRYING TREND ALONG WITH A NE WIND THAT SHOULD BE RATHER BREEZY ALONG
THE COAST. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.

HIGHS WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
(AROUND -1 ST DEV). SATURDAY HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 80-85 (UPPER 70S
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST)...WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
LOW/MID 60S EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
IS EXPECTED TO KEEP TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY WELL OFF THE COAST BY
ABOUT 500-600 MILES. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A COOLER AIRMASS
OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED BEFORE THE RIDGE AXES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT
ALOFT BEGIN TO SHIFT JUST EAST OF THE FA...AND MOVING OFFSHORE BY
THU. THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIODS DUE TO WELL-ESTABLISHED SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILE...HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE FAR SE
VA/NE NC COAST ON WED DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR WRAPAROUND MOISTURE
FROM THE TROPICAL SYSTEM PASSING WELL TO THE EAST. HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL FROM MON NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT
(LOWS IN THE 60S...UPPER 50S FAR WRN COUNTIES/HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
80S...MID-UPPER 70S BEACHES) AND THEN REBOUND TWD SEASONAL NORMALS
THU/THU NIGHT (HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S...UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S
BEACHES/LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S...AROUND 70 BEACHES).

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRNTAL BNDRY IS STALLED OVR THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HI PRES
LOCATED OVR THE NE STATES. ISO/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED
MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY AND DURING THE EVENG HOURS...BUT CHANCE IS
NOT HI ENUF TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK...SHRA/TSTM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER FORECAST BEGINNING SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR DUE TO STRATUS OR FOG
WILL BE A POTENTIAL A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES ISSUED FOR COASTAL WATERS AND SRN CHES BAY SAT AFTN
THROUGH SUN.

A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SWD ACROSS THE SRN
WATERS TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. MEANWHILE...A
WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
SAT. NLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WILL BE COMMON AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THEN THEY WILL TURN TO THE N-NE BEHIND IT AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES DOWN OVER THE WATERS. A PERIOD OF PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS
WILL RESULT IN PROLONGED SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND
SRN CHES BAY...MAINLY DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS/WAVES (4-5FT/3-4FT
RESPECTIVELY). WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-20KT OCEAN AND 10-15KT
BAY/RIVERS/SOUND. GUSTS MAY REACH 25 KT AT TIMES OVER COASTAL
WATERS BUT MAIN FOCUS OF SCA WILL BE ON SEAS OF 5 FT. GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FETCH...IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SEAS TO REACH 6 FT
NEAR BUOY 44009 SAT EVENING DURING A WEAK PUSH OF CAA. CURRITUCK
SOUND AND THE MOUTH OF THE JAMES RIVER MAY BE EXPERIENCE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA WINDS (15-20KT) ON SUN FROM DAYBREAK UNTIL
SUNSET BUT DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES FOR THESE AREAS FOR
NOW. ALTHOUGH CURRENT HEADLINES END AT 8PM SUN NIGHT...THERE IS A
VERY GOOD CHANCE THAT SCA FLAGS WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH MON. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON/TUE BUT A TROPICAL SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ABOUT 500-600 MILES E-SE OF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST DURING THIS TIME. SWELL FROM THIS SYSTEM...IN ADDITION TO
CONTINUED ONSHORE WINDS...COULD KEEP SEAS ELEVATED THROUGH MON
BEFORE SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SATURDAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ656-
     658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...MAS/DAP
MARINE...BMD





000
FXUS61 KPHI 221906
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
306 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE MOVING AWAY THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS IN PROGRESS BOTH LOW TOP UNDER 4000 FT
MOVING WWD ON TPHL NEAR THE DEL RIVER AT 1845Z AND DEEPER NW FLOW
SHOWERS AS SEEN ON GENERAL RADARS.

IN THE MEANTIME CALLING IT SCT SHOWERS (NUMEROUS FAR W SECTION OF
OUR CWA) THRU TONIGHT...MOST OF IT W NJ E PA AND THE DELMARVA.

AMOUNTS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS THAN WHAT OUR GRIDDED QPF
HAS AND IT COULD RAIN BRIEFLY HEAVY WITH ISOLATED 0.75 INCH AMTS
POSSIBLE IN E PA BY MORNING DUE TO PWAT STILL 1.5 MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. SLIGHTLY HIGHER 1 INCH AMTS POSSIBLE MD E SHORE AND FAR S
DE WHERE MORE INSTABILITY AND HIGHER PWAT.

NO THUNDER IN THE FCST ATTM SINCE MOST OF THE INSTABILITY HAS
RECEDED WWD JUST W OF OUR CWA WITH COOLER ELY FLOW INFLUX AND
SKYCOVER.

FCST TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND WINDS ARE THE 12Z/22 50 50 BLEND OF THE
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
DEEP MOISTURE SATURDAY WITH WEAK VV DUE TO TROUGH AXIS ALOFT SWINGING
SWD FROM NYS AS WELL AS WEAK LOW LVL UPSLOPE FLOW COULD RESULT IN
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR A TIME DURING THE MORNING AND MAKE IT
A BLEAK SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY AFTN SHOULD START DRYING OUT WITH BRIGHTENING SKIES
TOWARD 6 PM.

ENE WIND MAX GUST AROUND 20 MPH.

50 50 BLENDED 12Z/22 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE ONLY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE LONG TERM PART OF THE FCST
WILL BE ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA...MOSTLY
SOUTH...SATURDAY EVENING. THE UPPER H5 TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE
AREA AND PLENTY OF DRIER AND SUBSIDING AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND IT.
WE WILL JUST KEEP THE SLGT CHC POPS FOR SRN NJ AND THE
DELMARVA...AS WAS ALREADY IN THERE. TEMPS SAT NIGHT MID/UPPER 50S
NORTH/WEST AND LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS SLATED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD UP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SUN AND IT WILL ROTATE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC REGION NEXT WEEK. A STRONG SFC HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE
AREA MON. THIS WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER WITH COOL TEMPS SUN/MON.
TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL FOR TUE AND THEN CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL
FOR WED/THU.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA WILL ARRIVE THU AND
THEN MOVE AWAY FRI. IT WILL PROBABLY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA. WE HAVE JUST PAINTED SOME SLGT CHC POPS FOR NOW. A TROPICAL
SYSTEM MAY MOVE UP FROM THE BAHAMAS TUESDAY NORTH NORTHEAST WED-THU.
SINCE IT WILL BE STAYING WELL EAST OF THE AREA...IT IS NOT EXPECTED
TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER...EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME ENHANCED
SEAS. WE WILL BE WATCHING ANY DEVELOPMENTS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...CIGS MAINLY 2000 TO 3500 FT WITH
SCT LIGHT SHOWERS MAYBE REDUCING VSBY TO 5 MI. ISOLATED THUNDER
MAY DRIFT TOWARD KRDG LATE BUT NOT EXPECTED TO REACH KRDG. ELY
FLOW MAX GUST 15 KT.

TONIGHT...CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR AT TIMES WITH GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR IFR CONDS WHEN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ARE OCCURRING. LIGHT E OR NE FLOW.

SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY...BECOMING VFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED OR NUMEROUS SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING DIMINISHING DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ENE WIND WITH MAX GUST 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH 4 FEET AND WINDS MAY
BEGIN TO GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS EARLY FLOW INCREASES AS
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

SATURDAY...SCA ISSUED FOR THE SNJ AND DE ATLC WATERS AND FOR NOW
NONE NNJ WATERS. HOWEVER...THIS FCST HAS TRIMMED SEA STATE BY 1
FOOT ON SATURDAY AND WE MAY BE TOO CONSERVATIVE. IN WHICH CASE MAY
NEED TO EXPAND THE SCA INTO THE NNJ WATERS ON ONE OF OUR NEXT FCST
SHIFTS.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...SCA FLAG CONTINUES SAT NIGHT AND THRU 800 AM SUN FOR
THE SRN NJ AND DEL COASTAL WATERS. NEAR SCA CONDITIONS FURTHER NORTH.
FAIR WEATHER.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
LOW ENHANCED RISK THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS PROBABLY INCREASES
TO MODERATE THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE NJ COAST WITH EASTERLY SWELL OF 4
FEET AT 7 SECONDS COMBINING WITH THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW OF 15
KT TO BUILD THE WATER BEHIND THE SAND BARS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ452>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG






000
FXUS61 KPHI 221906
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
306 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE MOVING AWAY THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS IN PROGRESS BOTH LOW TOP UNDER 4000 FT
MOVING WWD ON TPHL NEAR THE DEL RIVER AT 1845Z AND DEEPER NW FLOW
SHOWERS AS SEEN ON GENERAL RADARS.

IN THE MEANTIME CALLING IT SCT SHOWERS (NUMEROUS FAR W SECTION OF
OUR CWA) THRU TONIGHT...MOST OF IT W NJ E PA AND THE DELMARVA.

AMOUNTS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS THAN WHAT OUR GRIDDED QPF
HAS AND IT COULD RAIN BRIEFLY HEAVY WITH ISOLATED 0.75 INCH AMTS
POSSIBLE IN E PA BY MORNING DUE TO PWAT STILL 1.5 MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. SLIGHTLY HIGHER 1 INCH AMTS POSSIBLE MD E SHORE AND FAR S
DE WHERE MORE INSTABILITY AND HIGHER PWAT.

NO THUNDER IN THE FCST ATTM SINCE MOST OF THE INSTABILITY HAS
RECEDED WWD JUST W OF OUR CWA WITH COOLER ELY FLOW INFLUX AND
SKYCOVER.

FCST TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND WINDS ARE THE 12Z/22 50 50 BLEND OF THE
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
DEEP MOISTURE SATURDAY WITH WEAK VV DUE TO TROUGH AXIS ALOFT SWINGING
SWD FROM NYS AS WELL AS WEAK LOW LVL UPSLOPE FLOW COULD RESULT IN
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR A TIME DURING THE MORNING AND MAKE IT
A BLEAK SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY AFTN SHOULD START DRYING OUT WITH BRIGHTENING SKIES
TOWARD 6 PM.

ENE WIND MAX GUST AROUND 20 MPH.

50 50 BLENDED 12Z/22 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE ONLY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE LONG TERM PART OF THE FCST
WILL BE ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA...MOSTLY
SOUTH...SATURDAY EVENING. THE UPPER H5 TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE
AREA AND PLENTY OF DRIER AND SUBSIDING AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND IT.
WE WILL JUST KEEP THE SLGT CHC POPS FOR SRN NJ AND THE
DELMARVA...AS WAS ALREADY IN THERE. TEMPS SAT NIGHT MID/UPPER 50S
NORTH/WEST AND LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS SLATED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD UP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SUN AND IT WILL ROTATE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC REGION NEXT WEEK. A STRONG SFC HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE
AREA MON. THIS WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER WITH COOL TEMPS SUN/MON.
TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL FOR TUE AND THEN CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL
FOR WED/THU.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA WILL ARRIVE THU AND
THEN MOVE AWAY FRI. IT WILL PROBABLY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA. WE HAVE JUST PAINTED SOME SLGT CHC POPS FOR NOW. A TROPICAL
SYSTEM MAY MOVE UP FROM THE BAHAMAS TUESDAY NORTH NORTHEAST WED-THU.
SINCE IT WILL BE STAYING WELL EAST OF THE AREA...IT IS NOT EXPECTED
TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER...EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME ENHANCED
SEAS. WE WILL BE WATCHING ANY DEVELOPMENTS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...CIGS MAINLY 2000 TO 3500 FT WITH
SCT LIGHT SHOWERS MAYBE REDUCING VSBY TO 5 MI. ISOLATED THUNDER
MAY DRIFT TOWARD KRDG LATE BUT NOT EXPECTED TO REACH KRDG. ELY
FLOW MAX GUST 15 KT.

TONIGHT...CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR AT TIMES WITH GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR IFR CONDS WHEN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ARE OCCURRING. LIGHT E OR NE FLOW.

SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY...BECOMING VFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED OR NUMEROUS SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING DIMINISHING DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ENE WIND WITH MAX GUST 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH 4 FEET AND WINDS MAY
BEGIN TO GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS EARLY FLOW INCREASES AS
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

SATURDAY...SCA ISSUED FOR THE SNJ AND DE ATLC WATERS AND FOR NOW
NONE NNJ WATERS. HOWEVER...THIS FCST HAS TRIMMED SEA STATE BY 1
FOOT ON SATURDAY AND WE MAY BE TOO CONSERVATIVE. IN WHICH CASE MAY
NEED TO EXPAND THE SCA INTO THE NNJ WATERS ON ONE OF OUR NEXT FCST
SHIFTS.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...SCA FLAG CONTINUES SAT NIGHT AND THRU 800 AM SUN FOR
THE SRN NJ AND DEL COASTAL WATERS. NEAR SCA CONDITIONS FURTHER NORTH.
FAIR WEATHER.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
LOW ENHANCED RISK THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS PROBABLY INCREASES
TO MODERATE THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE NJ COAST WITH EASTERLY SWELL OF 4
FEET AT 7 SECONDS COMBINING WITH THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW OF 15
KT TO BUILD THE WATER BEHIND THE SAND BARS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ452>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG







000
FXUS61 KPHI 221858
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
258 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA NOW, WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH
APPROACHING THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS IN PROGRESS BOTH LOW TOP UNDER 4000 FT
MOVING WWD ON TPHL NEAR THE DEL RIVER AT 1845Z AND DEEPER NW FLOW
SHOWERS AS SEEN ON GENERAL RADARS.

IN THE MEANTIME CALLING IT SCT SHOWERS (NUMEROUS FAR W SECTION OF
OUR CWA) THRU TONIGHT...MOST OF IT W NJ E PA AND THE DELMARVA.

AMOUNTS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS THAN WHAT OUR GRIDDED QPF
HAS AND IT COULD RAIN BRIEFLY HEAVY WITH ISOLATED 0.75 INCH AMTS
POSSIBLE IN E PA BY MORNING DUE TO PWAT STILL 1.5 MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. SLIGHTLY HIGHER 1 INCH AMTS POSSIBLE MD E SHORE AND FAR S
DE WHERE MORE INSTABILITY AND HIGHER PWAT.

NO THUNDER IN THE FCST ATTM SINCE MOST OF THE INSTABILITY HAS
RECEDED WWD JUST W OF OUR CWA WITH COOLER ELY FLOW INFLUX AND
SKYCOVER.

FCST TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND WINDS ARE THE 12Z/22 50 50 BLEND OF THE
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
DEEP MOISTURE SATURDAY WITH WEAK VV DUE TO TROUGH AXIS ALOFT SWINGING
SWD FROM NYS AS WELL AS WEAK LOW LVL UPSLOPE FLOW COULD RESULT IN
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR A TIME DURING THE MORNING AND MAKE IT
A BLEAK SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY AFTN SHOULD START DRYING OUT WITH BRIGHTENING SKIES
TOWARD 6 PM.

ENE WIND MAX GUST AROUND 20 MPH.

50 50 BLENDED 12Z/22 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH. WEAK ON SHORE FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
WILL HELP TO KEEP HIGHS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EACH
DAY. BY WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED ENOUGH OFF SHORE TO
LEAVE THE REGION UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN NEAR NORMAL. BUT IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE WARM WEATHER WILL
BE AROUND FOR VERY LONG.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT SLIGHTLY AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS, WITH IT NOW
FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY. THUS...THURSDAY
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE NEAR NORMAL. THE FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT
PROMISING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION, AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...CIGS MAINLY 2000 TO 3500 FT WITH
SCT LIGHT SHOWERS MAYBE REDUCING VSBY TO 5 MI. ISOLATED THUNDER
MAY DRIFT TOWARD KRDG LATE BUT NOT EXPECTED TO REACH KRDG. ELY
FLOW MAX GUST 15 KT.

TONIGHT...CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR AT TIMES WITH GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR IFR CONDS WHEN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ARE OCCURRING. LIGHT E OR NE FLOW.

SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY...BECOMING VFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED OR NUMEROUS SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING DIMINISHING DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ENE WIND WITH MAX GUST 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH 4 FEET AND WINDS MAY
BEGIN TO GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS EARLY FLOW INCREASES AS
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

SATURDAY...SCA ISSUED FOR THE SNJ AND DE ATLC WATERS AND FOR NOW
NONE NNJ WATERS. HOWEVER...THIS FCST HAS TRIMMED SEA STATE BY 1
FOOT ON SATURDAY AND WE MAY BE TOO CONSERVATIVE. IN WHICH CASE MAY
NEED TO EXPAND THE SCA INTO THE NNJ WATERS ON ONE OF OUR NEXT FCST
SHIFTS.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS AS EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
LOW ENHANCED RISK THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS PROBABLY INCREASES
TO MODERATE THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE NJ COAST WITH EASTERLY SWELL OF 4
FEET AT 7 SECONDS COMBINING WITH THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW OF 15
KT TO BUILD THE WATER BEHIND THE SAND BARS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ452>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG  258
SHORT TERM...DRAG 258
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON 258
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON 258
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG 258






000
FXUS61 KPHI 221858
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
258 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA NOW, WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH
APPROACHING THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS IN PROGRESS BOTH LOW TOP UNDER 4000 FT
MOVING WWD ON TPHL NEAR THE DEL RIVER AT 1845Z AND DEEPER NW FLOW
SHOWERS AS SEEN ON GENERAL RADARS.

IN THE MEANTIME CALLING IT SCT SHOWERS (NUMEROUS FAR W SECTION OF
OUR CWA) THRU TONIGHT...MOST OF IT W NJ E PA AND THE DELMARVA.

AMOUNTS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS THAN WHAT OUR GRIDDED QPF
HAS AND IT COULD RAIN BRIEFLY HEAVY WITH ISOLATED 0.75 INCH AMTS
POSSIBLE IN E PA BY MORNING DUE TO PWAT STILL 1.5 MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. SLIGHTLY HIGHER 1 INCH AMTS POSSIBLE MD E SHORE AND FAR S
DE WHERE MORE INSTABILITY AND HIGHER PWAT.

NO THUNDER IN THE FCST ATTM SINCE MOST OF THE INSTABILITY HAS
RECEDED WWD JUST W OF OUR CWA WITH COOLER ELY FLOW INFLUX AND
SKYCOVER.

FCST TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND WINDS ARE THE 12Z/22 50 50 BLEND OF THE
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
DEEP MOISTURE SATURDAY WITH WEAK VV DUE TO TROUGH AXIS ALOFT SWINGING
SWD FROM NYS AS WELL AS WEAK LOW LVL UPSLOPE FLOW COULD RESULT IN
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR A TIME DURING THE MORNING AND MAKE IT
A BLEAK SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY AFTN SHOULD START DRYING OUT WITH BRIGHTENING SKIES
TOWARD 6 PM.

ENE WIND MAX GUST AROUND 20 MPH.

50 50 BLENDED 12Z/22 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH. WEAK ON SHORE FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
WILL HELP TO KEEP HIGHS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EACH
DAY. BY WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED ENOUGH OFF SHORE TO
LEAVE THE REGION UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN NEAR NORMAL. BUT IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE WARM WEATHER WILL
BE AROUND FOR VERY LONG.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT SLIGHTLY AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS, WITH IT NOW
FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY. THUS...THURSDAY
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE NEAR NORMAL. THE FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT
PROMISING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION, AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...CIGS MAINLY 2000 TO 3500 FT WITH
SCT LIGHT SHOWERS MAYBE REDUCING VSBY TO 5 MI. ISOLATED THUNDER
MAY DRIFT TOWARD KRDG LATE BUT NOT EXPECTED TO REACH KRDG. ELY
FLOW MAX GUST 15 KT.

TONIGHT...CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR AT TIMES WITH GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR IFR CONDS WHEN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ARE OCCURRING. LIGHT E OR NE FLOW.

SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY...BECOMING VFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED OR NUMEROUS SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING DIMINISHING DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ENE WIND WITH MAX GUST 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH 4 FEET AND WINDS MAY
BEGIN TO GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS EARLY FLOW INCREASES AS
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

SATURDAY...SCA ISSUED FOR THE SNJ AND DE ATLC WATERS AND FOR NOW
NONE NNJ WATERS. HOWEVER...THIS FCST HAS TRIMMED SEA STATE BY 1
FOOT ON SATURDAY AND WE MAY BE TOO CONSERVATIVE. IN WHICH CASE MAY
NEED TO EXPAND THE SCA INTO THE NNJ WATERS ON ONE OF OUR NEXT FCST
SHIFTS.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS AS EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
LOW ENHANCED RISK THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS PROBABLY INCREASES
TO MODERATE THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE NJ COAST WITH EASTERLY SWELL OF 4
FEET AT 7 SECONDS COMBINING WITH THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW OF 15
KT TO BUILD THE WATER BEHIND THE SAND BARS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ452>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG  258
SHORT TERM...DRAG 258
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON 258
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON 258
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG 258







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221857
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
257 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND IS
SLOW TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INITIAL S/W EXITING THE CST THIS MRNG RESULTING IN OVERNIGHT
SHRAS/TSTMS NOW MOVING WELL OFF THE ATLC CST. MOST AREAS SHOULD BE
DRY THROUGH MIDDAY ASIDE FROM WEAKENING -SHRA DRIFTING INTO THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES LATE THIS MRNG. OTRW...STARTING OUT P/MCLDY
CONDS.

NW FLO RMNS OVER THE REGION TDA. A SECOND...PTNTLLY MORE VIGOROUS
S/W FM THE ERN OH DROPS THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING
THIS AFTN. THIS SYS XPCD TO PROVIDE BEST CHC OF AND GREATEST AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHRAS/TSTMS ACROSS THE FA DUE TO MORE
FAVORABLE/STRONGER UPPER JET SUPPORT. POCKETS OF MDT TO HVY RA ARE
POSSIBLE GIVEN MODEST MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE UPPER SUPPORT. THE
SKY BECOMES MNLY CLDY ACRS THE FA BY MIDDAY/AFTN HRS. HI TEMPS FM
THE L/M80S NR THE CST...TO THE M/U80S ELSW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CONTD HI PROB FOR SHRAS/TSTMS TNGT INTO SAT MRNG AS S/W DIVES SE
THROUGH AREA THEN OFFSHORE. ADDITIONALLY...SFC WNDS BECOME ENE AND
CLDNS RMNS WIDESPREAD. LOCALLY MDT/HVY RA WILL CONT TO BE
PSBL. WILL HANG ONTO WIDESPREAD CLDNS AND CHC POPS SAT AFTN INTO
SAT NGT AS ONSHORE WNDS CONT. HAVE CONFINED PSBL TSTMS TO AREAS
AWAY FM THE CST (WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED THAT DUE TO LIMITED/NO
INSTABILITY THAT ANY TSTMS WILL BE WELL S AND/OR W OF THE FA).

SFC HI PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND SAT SLOWLY PUSHES S AND INTO THE
REGION BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A REMNANT SFC FRONT S OF THE
AREA. SUN XPCD TO BE P/MSNY...W/ SLGT CHC POPS MNLY CONFINED TO
CSTL SECTIONS IN SE VA/NE NC. WNDS WILL CONT TO BE FM THE NE...A
BIT BREEZY AT THE CST.

HI TEMPS SAT 80 TO 85F (U70S ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES)...W/
U70S TO L80S SUNDAY. LOWS RANGING FM THE U60S TO L70S TNGT...THEN
MNLY IN THE 60S SAT NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF MAINLY NE FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH RIDGES SOUTH WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EMERGES FROM THE BAHAMAS. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A COOLER
MARITIME AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BEGIN TO CENTER THEMSELVES OVER
THE FA. AT THIS POINT SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL AND WILL HELP TO DRY
THE ATMOSPHERE. PRECIP ALONG THE VA/NC COAST CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT DUE TO THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE NORTH AS THE SURFACE LOW
FORMS TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY IN REGARDS TO
THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. AND
DUE TO THE LARGE DEGREE OF CHANGE IN MODEL RUNS...AT THIS POINT...
WILL NOT MODIFY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TOO MUCH.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 MON AND TUES...WARMING SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID 80S
WED AND THUR. SEASONAL LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE LIKELY
AS THE MARITIME AIRMASS WILL LIMIT SIGNIFICANT OVERNIGHT COOLING.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRNTAL BNDRY IS STALLED OVR THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HI PRES
LOCATED OVR THE NE STATES. ISO/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED
MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY AND DURING THE EVENG HOURS...BUT CHANCE IS
NOT HI ENUF TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK...SHRA/TSTM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER FORECAST BEGINNING SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR DUE TO STRATUS OR FOG
WILL BE A POTENTIAL A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. STATIONARY FRNTAL BNDRY
REMAINS OVR THE AREA THIS MORNG...LEADING TO LGT/VRB WINDS. LO PRES
WILL FORM ALONG THE FRNT TDA...WITH WINDS BCMG N/NE BEHIND THE LO
THIS AFTN. EXPECT MAINLY 2 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS AND 1-2 WAVES OVR
THE BAY. THE FRNT PUSHES S OF THE AREA FRI NGT AS HI PRES NOSES S FM
THE NE STATES. ENERGY STREAMING SE WILL HELP FORM AN AREA OF LO PRES
OFF THE CAROLINA CST. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL ENHANCE THE PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS THE WTRS CAUSING NEAR SCA WIND GUSTS OVR THE BAY
(18-20 KT) AND CSTL WTRS (23-25 KT) ON SAT. DUE TO THE WIND
DIRECTION AND FETCH...EXPECT SEAS TO BLD TO 4-5 FT OVR THE OCEAN
BY SAT EVENG. WITH THIS BEING MAINLY 4TH PERIOD...WILL NOT ISSUE A
SCA ATTM. HI PRES BEGINS TO POSITION ITSELF OVR THE AREA BY MON/TUE
BUT LO PRES EMERGING FROM THE S MAY HELP TO MAINTAIN THE PRES
GRADIENT AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MAS/DAP
MARINE...MAS







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221857
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
257 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND IS
SLOW TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INITIAL S/W EXITING THE CST THIS MRNG RESULTING IN OVERNIGHT
SHRAS/TSTMS NOW MOVING WELL OFF THE ATLC CST. MOST AREAS SHOULD BE
DRY THROUGH MIDDAY ASIDE FROM WEAKENING -SHRA DRIFTING INTO THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES LATE THIS MRNG. OTRW...STARTING OUT P/MCLDY
CONDS.

NW FLO RMNS OVER THE REGION TDA. A SECOND...PTNTLLY MORE VIGOROUS
S/W FM THE ERN OH DROPS THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING
THIS AFTN. THIS SYS XPCD TO PROVIDE BEST CHC OF AND GREATEST AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHRAS/TSTMS ACROSS THE FA DUE TO MORE
FAVORABLE/STRONGER UPPER JET SUPPORT. POCKETS OF MDT TO HVY RA ARE
POSSIBLE GIVEN MODEST MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE UPPER SUPPORT. THE
SKY BECOMES MNLY CLDY ACRS THE FA BY MIDDAY/AFTN HRS. HI TEMPS FM
THE L/M80S NR THE CST...TO THE M/U80S ELSW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CONTD HI PROB FOR SHRAS/TSTMS TNGT INTO SAT MRNG AS S/W DIVES SE
THROUGH AREA THEN OFFSHORE. ADDITIONALLY...SFC WNDS BECOME ENE AND
CLDNS RMNS WIDESPREAD. LOCALLY MDT/HVY RA WILL CONT TO BE
PSBL. WILL HANG ONTO WIDESPREAD CLDNS AND CHC POPS SAT AFTN INTO
SAT NGT AS ONSHORE WNDS CONT. HAVE CONFINED PSBL TSTMS TO AREAS
AWAY FM THE CST (WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED THAT DUE TO LIMITED/NO
INSTABILITY THAT ANY TSTMS WILL BE WELL S AND/OR W OF THE FA).

SFC HI PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND SAT SLOWLY PUSHES S AND INTO THE
REGION BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A REMNANT SFC FRONT S OF THE
AREA. SUN XPCD TO BE P/MSNY...W/ SLGT CHC POPS MNLY CONFINED TO
CSTL SECTIONS IN SE VA/NE NC. WNDS WILL CONT TO BE FM THE NE...A
BIT BREEZY AT THE CST.

HI TEMPS SAT 80 TO 85F (U70S ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES)...W/
U70S TO L80S SUNDAY. LOWS RANGING FM THE U60S TO L70S TNGT...THEN
MNLY IN THE 60S SAT NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF MAINLY NE FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH RIDGES SOUTH WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EMERGES FROM THE BAHAMAS. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A COOLER
MARITIME AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BEGIN TO CENTER THEMSELVES OVER
THE FA. AT THIS POINT SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL AND WILL HELP TO DRY
THE ATMOSPHERE. PRECIP ALONG THE VA/NC COAST CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT DUE TO THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE NORTH AS THE SURFACE LOW
FORMS TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY IN REGARDS TO
THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. AND
DUE TO THE LARGE DEGREE OF CHANGE IN MODEL RUNS...AT THIS POINT...
WILL NOT MODIFY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TOO MUCH.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 MON AND TUES...WARMING SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID 80S
WED AND THUR. SEASONAL LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE LIKELY
AS THE MARITIME AIRMASS WILL LIMIT SIGNIFICANT OVERNIGHT COOLING.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRNTAL BNDRY IS STALLED OVR THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HI PRES
LOCATED OVR THE NE STATES. ISO/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED
MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY AND DURING THE EVENG HOURS...BUT CHANCE IS
NOT HI ENUF TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK...SHRA/TSTM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER FORECAST BEGINNING SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR DUE TO STRATUS OR FOG
WILL BE A POTENTIAL A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. STATIONARY FRNTAL BNDRY
REMAINS OVR THE AREA THIS MORNG...LEADING TO LGT/VRB WINDS. LO PRES
WILL FORM ALONG THE FRNT TDA...WITH WINDS BCMG N/NE BEHIND THE LO
THIS AFTN. EXPECT MAINLY 2 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS AND 1-2 WAVES OVR
THE BAY. THE FRNT PUSHES S OF THE AREA FRI NGT AS HI PRES NOSES S FM
THE NE STATES. ENERGY STREAMING SE WILL HELP FORM AN AREA OF LO PRES
OFF THE CAROLINA CST. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL ENHANCE THE PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS THE WTRS CAUSING NEAR SCA WIND GUSTS OVR THE BAY
(18-20 KT) AND CSTL WTRS (23-25 KT) ON SAT. DUE TO THE WIND
DIRECTION AND FETCH...EXPECT SEAS TO BLD TO 4-5 FT OVR THE OCEAN
BY SAT EVENG. WITH THIS BEING MAINLY 4TH PERIOD...WILL NOT ISSUE A
SCA ATTM. HI PRES BEGINS TO POSITION ITSELF OVR THE AREA BY MON/TUE
BUT LO PRES EMERGING FROM THE S MAY HELP TO MAINTAIN THE PRES
GRADIENT AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MAS/DAP
MARINE...MAS






000
FXUS61 KLWX 221833
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
233 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

A BNDRY STRETCHES FM IL/OH INTO THE NRN MID ATLC. THIS IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR ISOLD RW FM ALLEGANY TO ST. MARY`S CO`S. IF ANY
BRKS IN THE CLDS DVLP THESE COULD GROW TO TSTM LVL...BUT SVR THREAT
IS LIMITED. SHOWERS DO HV ENOUGH MVMNT THAT IT APPEARS THAT FLD
THREAT WL BE NEGLIBLE.

AFTN HIGH TEMPS WL TOP OUT IN LM80S. NOT A BIG DROP IN TEMPS
OVRNGT - XPCT LOWS TO BE IN MU60S W OF I-95...L70S E.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...

THE AIR MASS OVR THE MID ATLC WL RMN MOIST SAT...HENCE SKIES WL
AGN HV PLENTY OF CLDS W/ CHCS FOR RW IN THE MRNG THRU MIDDAY. HIGH
PRES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST WL BEGIN BLDG INTO THE MID ATLC DURG
THE AFTN. THIS COULD TRIGGER SOME LTNG BUT NOT XPCTG A SVR THREAT.
SKIES COULD BEGIN CLRG IN NERN MD BY LATE AFTN.

LATE AUG HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE M80S. XPCT TEMPS TO BE A FEW
DEGS BLO THAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

SOUTHWARD MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH REINFORCING
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE BEFORE THE FROPA ALONG WITH UPSLOPE FLOW
AND UPPER TROUGH ENERGY SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS
MAINLY THE BLUE RIDGE AND POTOMAC HIGHLAND SUNDAY NIGHT.
DRIER/COOLER AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOR
SUNDAY.

POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN DOMINATE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK WITH SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY. POSITION OF UPPER FLOW LOOKS TO KEEP ANY
TROPICAL SYSTEM ACTIVITY OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC NEXT WEEK AS
WELL.

RETURN FLOW SETS IN WITH TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL FOR THURSDAY
AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CONUS. THIS DEEPENING TROUGH DRAGS A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH FRIDAY
LOOKING TO BE BACK IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S ATTM. DEEP-LAYER WIND
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION
WITH THIS COLD FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

CLDY CONDS XPCTD OVRNGT. WHILE THERE WL BE SHRA/ISOLD TSTMS LATE
THIS AFTN/EVE THE CLD CVR SHOULD ALSO HELP TO LIMIT FOG DVLPMNT.
AGN CLDY DURG FIRST PART OF SAT...BUT THEN CLRG FM THE N IN THE
AFTN AS HIGH PRES STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE RGN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA VALUES TNGT/SAT. ISOLD TSTMS PSBL FOR
THE RMDR OF THE AFTN/EVE.

COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE BAY SATURDAY NIGHT.
WINDS LOOK TO STAY BELOW SCA LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

PRODUCTS...WOODY!/AEB








000
FXUS61 KLWX 221833
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
233 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

A BNDRY STRETCHES FM IL/OH INTO THE NRN MID ATLC. THIS IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR ISOLD RW FM ALLEGANY TO ST. MARY`S CO`S. IF ANY
BRKS IN THE CLDS DVLP THESE COULD GROW TO TSTM LVL...BUT SVR THREAT
IS LIMITED. SHOWERS DO HV ENOUGH MVMNT THAT IT APPEARS THAT FLD
THREAT WL BE NEGLIBLE.

AFTN HIGH TEMPS WL TOP OUT IN LM80S. NOT A BIG DROP IN TEMPS
OVRNGT - XPCT LOWS TO BE IN MU60S W OF I-95...L70S E.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...

THE AIR MASS OVR THE MID ATLC WL RMN MOIST SAT...HENCE SKIES WL
AGN HV PLENTY OF CLDS W/ CHCS FOR RW IN THE MRNG THRU MIDDAY. HIGH
PRES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST WL BEGIN BLDG INTO THE MID ATLC DURG
THE AFTN. THIS COULD TRIGGER SOME LTNG BUT NOT XPCTG A SVR THREAT.
SKIES COULD BEGIN CLRG IN NERN MD BY LATE AFTN.

LATE AUG HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE M80S. XPCT TEMPS TO BE A FEW
DEGS BLO THAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

SOUTHWARD MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH REINFORCING
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE BEFORE THE FROPA ALONG WITH UPSLOPE FLOW
AND UPPER TROUGH ENERGY SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS
MAINLY THE BLUE RIDGE AND POTOMAC HIGHLAND SUNDAY NIGHT.
DRIER/COOLER AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOR
SUNDAY.

POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN DOMINATE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK WITH SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY. POSITION OF UPPER FLOW LOOKS TO KEEP ANY
TROPICAL SYSTEM ACTIVITY OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC NEXT WEEK AS
WELL.

RETURN FLOW SETS IN WITH TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL FOR THURSDAY
AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CONUS. THIS DEEPENING TROUGH DRAGS A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH FRIDAY
LOOKING TO BE BACK IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S ATTM. DEEP-LAYER WIND
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION
WITH THIS COLD FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

CLDY CONDS XPCTD OVRNGT. WHILE THERE WL BE SHRA/ISOLD TSTMS LATE
THIS AFTN/EVE THE CLD CVR SHOULD ALSO HELP TO LIMIT FOG DVLPMNT.
AGN CLDY DURG FIRST PART OF SAT...BUT THEN CLRG FM THE N IN THE
AFTN AS HIGH PRES STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE RGN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA VALUES TNGT/SAT. ISOLD TSTMS PSBL FOR
THE RMDR OF THE AFTN/EVE.

COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE BAY SATURDAY NIGHT.
WINDS LOOK TO STAY BELOW SCA LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

PRODUCTS...WOODY!/AEB









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221751
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
151 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WARM AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LIMIT INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON AS A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY FINALLY SAGS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. OPTED TO CUT BACK POPS SIGNIFICANTLY
UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH VERY LITTLE COVERAGE OVER OUR REGION. WHILE
PWATS IN OUR SOUTHERNMOST ZONES WILL STILL BE IN THE 2 INCH RANGE
EARLY TODAY...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THESE VALUES IS EXPECTED. WILL
MAINTAIN THE MENTION FOR ISOLATED FLOODING IN THE HWO SINCE ANY
TRAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER ALREADY SATURATED AREAS COULD
CAUSE PROBLEMS...BUT OVERALL THINK THE THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL VERSUS
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
SHOULD ALSO BE RATHER LOW TODAY WITH VERY WEAK SHEAR AND MINIMAL
INSTABILITY.

LOSS OF HEATING AS WELL AS SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF FRONT WILL
ALLOW COVERAGE TO WANE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGGRESSIVELY BUILD HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC
SAT IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROF BEING PUSHED OUT TO SEA. THIS
CONTINUES THE TREND TOWARDS AN OVERALL DRIER FORECAST FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND. AS FOR SAT...ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
RESIDES THROUGH CENTRAL PA DURING THE MORNING AS A WEAK H5 TROF
APPROACHES. EXPECTING THIS TO ACTIVATE SOME CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD REMAIN
LIMITED. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

TRIMMING BACK POPS AND SKY COVER SUN AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
SUBSIDENCE WILL WORK TO KEEP ANY CONVECTION SUN AT BAY. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT WITH DRIER AIR IN
PLACE...DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES RELAX A LITTLE ON SUN MAKING IT A
LITTLE LESS MUGGY.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS HEIGHTS
BUILD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE WELL ADVERTISED UPPER
RIDGE WILL SETTLE INTO THE OH VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK DEFLECTING WEAK
DISTURBANCES WELL TO THE NORTH. BY WEDS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS A
BROAD TROF DIGS INTO THE PLAINS BRINGING A SWEEPING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES THURS. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS
ALONG THE PROJECTED FRONT DAY 7 AS THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND STRUCTURE OF THIS SYSTEM.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OCNL MVFR CU/SC CIGS ARE EXPD TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY LT AFTN. A
CROSSING DISTURBANCE AND SFC BNDRY WL GENERATE SCT SHWRS AND PSBLY
A TSTM...SO WL MAINTAIN A VCSH MENTION IN THE TAFS. WITH LLVL
MOISTURE POOLING...EXPG IFR FOG TO DVLP OVRNGT INTO ERLY SAT AS
WELL. A PD OF MVFR DIURNAL CU CIGS ARE EXPD SAT MRNG BEFORE VFR
RTNS BY AFTN. A SHWR IS PSBL SAT BUT COVG EXPD TO BE TOO LOW FOR A
TAF MENTION ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ERLY SUN MRNG FOG RSTRNS ARE PSBL.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221751
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
151 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WARM AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LIMIT INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON AS A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY FINALLY SAGS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. OPTED TO CUT BACK POPS SIGNIFICANTLY
UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH VERY LITTLE COVERAGE OVER OUR REGION. WHILE
PWATS IN OUR SOUTHERNMOST ZONES WILL STILL BE IN THE 2 INCH RANGE
EARLY TODAY...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THESE VALUES IS EXPECTED. WILL
MAINTAIN THE MENTION FOR ISOLATED FLOODING IN THE HWO SINCE ANY
TRAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER ALREADY SATURATED AREAS COULD
CAUSE PROBLEMS...BUT OVERALL THINK THE THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL VERSUS
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
SHOULD ALSO BE RATHER LOW TODAY WITH VERY WEAK SHEAR AND MINIMAL
INSTABILITY.

LOSS OF HEATING AS WELL AS SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF FRONT WILL
ALLOW COVERAGE TO WANE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGGRESSIVELY BUILD HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC
SAT IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROF BEING PUSHED OUT TO SEA. THIS
CONTINUES THE TREND TOWARDS AN OVERALL DRIER FORECAST FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND. AS FOR SAT...ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
RESIDES THROUGH CENTRAL PA DURING THE MORNING AS A WEAK H5 TROF
APPROACHES. EXPECTING THIS TO ACTIVATE SOME CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD REMAIN
LIMITED. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

TRIMMING BACK POPS AND SKY COVER SUN AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
SUBSIDENCE WILL WORK TO KEEP ANY CONVECTION SUN AT BAY. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT WITH DRIER AIR IN
PLACE...DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES RELAX A LITTLE ON SUN MAKING IT A
LITTLE LESS MUGGY.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS HEIGHTS
BUILD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE WELL ADVERTISED UPPER
RIDGE WILL SETTLE INTO THE OH VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK DEFLECTING WEAK
DISTURBANCES WELL TO THE NORTH. BY WEDS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS A
BROAD TROF DIGS INTO THE PLAINS BRINGING A SWEEPING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES THURS. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS
ALONG THE PROJECTED FRONT DAY 7 AS THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND STRUCTURE OF THIS SYSTEM.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OCNL MVFR CU/SC CIGS ARE EXPD TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY LT AFTN. A
CROSSING DISTURBANCE AND SFC BNDRY WL GENERATE SCT SHWRS AND PSBLY
A TSTM...SO WL MAINTAIN A VCSH MENTION IN THE TAFS. WITH LLVL
MOISTURE POOLING...EXPG IFR FOG TO DVLP OVRNGT INTO ERLY SAT AS
WELL. A PD OF MVFR DIURNAL CU CIGS ARE EXPD SAT MRNG BEFORE VFR
RTNS BY AFTN. A SHWR IS PSBL SAT BUT COVG EXPD TO BE TOO LOW FOR A
TAF MENTION ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ERLY SUN MRNG FOG RSTRNS ARE PSBL.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221751
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
151 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WARM AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LIMIT INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON AS A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY FINALLY SAGS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. OPTED TO CUT BACK POPS SIGNIFICANTLY
UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH VERY LITTLE COVERAGE OVER OUR REGION. WHILE
PWATS IN OUR SOUTHERNMOST ZONES WILL STILL BE IN THE 2 INCH RANGE
EARLY TODAY...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THESE VALUES IS EXPECTED. WILL
MAINTAIN THE MENTION FOR ISOLATED FLOODING IN THE HWO SINCE ANY
TRAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER ALREADY SATURATED AREAS COULD
CAUSE PROBLEMS...BUT OVERALL THINK THE THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL VERSUS
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
SHOULD ALSO BE RATHER LOW TODAY WITH VERY WEAK SHEAR AND MINIMAL
INSTABILITY.

LOSS OF HEATING AS WELL AS SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF FRONT WILL
ALLOW COVERAGE TO WANE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGGRESSIVELY BUILD HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC
SAT IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROF BEING PUSHED OUT TO SEA. THIS
CONTINUES THE TREND TOWARDS AN OVERALL DRIER FORECAST FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND. AS FOR SAT...ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
RESIDES THROUGH CENTRAL PA DURING THE MORNING AS A WEAK H5 TROF
APPROACHES. EXPECTING THIS TO ACTIVATE SOME CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD REMAIN
LIMITED. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

TRIMMING BACK POPS AND SKY COVER SUN AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
SUBSIDENCE WILL WORK TO KEEP ANY CONVECTION SUN AT BAY. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT WITH DRIER AIR IN
PLACE...DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES RELAX A LITTLE ON SUN MAKING IT A
LITTLE LESS MUGGY.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS HEIGHTS
BUILD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE WELL ADVERTISED UPPER
RIDGE WILL SETTLE INTO THE OH VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK DEFLECTING WEAK
DISTURBANCES WELL TO THE NORTH. BY WEDS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS A
BROAD TROF DIGS INTO THE PLAINS BRINGING A SWEEPING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES THURS. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS
ALONG THE PROJECTED FRONT DAY 7 AS THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND STRUCTURE OF THIS SYSTEM.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OCNL MVFR CU/SC CIGS ARE EXPD TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY LT AFTN. A
CROSSING DISTURBANCE AND SFC BNDRY WL GENERATE SCT SHWRS AND PSBLY
A TSTM...SO WL MAINTAIN A VCSH MENTION IN THE TAFS. WITH LLVL
MOISTURE POOLING...EXPG IFR FOG TO DVLP OVRNGT INTO ERLY SAT AS
WELL. A PD OF MVFR DIURNAL CU CIGS ARE EXPD SAT MRNG BEFORE VFR
RTNS BY AFTN. A SHWR IS PSBL SAT BUT COVG EXPD TO BE TOO LOW FOR A
TAF MENTION ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ERLY SUN MRNG FOG RSTRNS ARE PSBL.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221751
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
151 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WARM AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LIMIT INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON AS A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY FINALLY SAGS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. OPTED TO CUT BACK POPS SIGNIFICANTLY
UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH VERY LITTLE COVERAGE OVER OUR REGION. WHILE
PWATS IN OUR SOUTHERNMOST ZONES WILL STILL BE IN THE 2 INCH RANGE
EARLY TODAY...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THESE VALUES IS EXPECTED. WILL
MAINTAIN THE MENTION FOR ISOLATED FLOODING IN THE HWO SINCE ANY
TRAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER ALREADY SATURATED AREAS COULD
CAUSE PROBLEMS...BUT OVERALL THINK THE THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL VERSUS
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
SHOULD ALSO BE RATHER LOW TODAY WITH VERY WEAK SHEAR AND MINIMAL
INSTABILITY.

LOSS OF HEATING AS WELL AS SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF FRONT WILL
ALLOW COVERAGE TO WANE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGGRESSIVELY BUILD HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC
SAT IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROF BEING PUSHED OUT TO SEA. THIS
CONTINUES THE TREND TOWARDS AN OVERALL DRIER FORECAST FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND. AS FOR SAT...ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
RESIDES THROUGH CENTRAL PA DURING THE MORNING AS A WEAK H5 TROF
APPROACHES. EXPECTING THIS TO ACTIVATE SOME CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD REMAIN
LIMITED. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

TRIMMING BACK POPS AND SKY COVER SUN AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
SUBSIDENCE WILL WORK TO KEEP ANY CONVECTION SUN AT BAY. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT WITH DRIER AIR IN
PLACE...DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES RELAX A LITTLE ON SUN MAKING IT A
LITTLE LESS MUGGY.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS HEIGHTS
BUILD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE WELL ADVERTISED UPPER
RIDGE WILL SETTLE INTO THE OH VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK DEFLECTING WEAK
DISTURBANCES WELL TO THE NORTH. BY WEDS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS A
BROAD TROF DIGS INTO THE PLAINS BRINGING A SWEEPING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES THURS. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS
ALONG THE PROJECTED FRONT DAY 7 AS THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND STRUCTURE OF THIS SYSTEM.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OCNL MVFR CU/SC CIGS ARE EXPD TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY LT AFTN. A
CROSSING DISTURBANCE AND SFC BNDRY WL GENERATE SCT SHWRS AND PSBLY
A TSTM...SO WL MAINTAIN A VCSH MENTION IN THE TAFS. WITH LLVL
MOISTURE POOLING...EXPG IFR FOG TO DVLP OVRNGT INTO ERLY SAT AS
WELL. A PD OF MVFR DIURNAL CU CIGS ARE EXPD SAT MRNG BEFORE VFR
RTNS BY AFTN. A SHWR IS PSBL SAT BUT COVG EXPD TO BE TOO LOW FOR A
TAF MENTION ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ERLY SUN MRNG FOG RSTRNS ARE PSBL.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPHI 221702
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
102 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA NOW, WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH
APPROACHING THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 PM UPDATE; SPRINKLES OCCURRING AT THE OFFICE NOW AS SEEN ON
TPHL..MOVING WEST..SHALLOW LOW TOPPED UNDER 4000 FT.

MEANWHILE SCT SHOWERS IN DEEPER MOISTURE FLOWING SEWD FROM CENTRAL
PA WILL PROBABLY AFFECT INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF E PA AND THE
DELMARVA THIS AFTN AND THUS OUR FCST OF SCT SHOWERS.

WHETHER THERE IS ANY THUNDER IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND NOT LIKELY
EXCEPT MAYBE THE DELMARVA. THUNDER COVERAGE HAS BEEN REDUCED IN
THE FCST BY USING WX TOOL AOB SBLI -2.

OTRW MOCLOUDY. LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

SO I`VE SORT OF GIVEN UP ON THE IDEA OF BIG TSTMS PRODUCING POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING RAINS IN E PA TONIGHT BUT I`D LIKE ANOTHER LOOK
AT LATER MODEL GUIDANCE AROUND 215 PM.

OTRW TONIGHT MO CLOUDY WITH A FEW BANDS OF SHOWERS...MOSTLY LIGHT.

THE FCST TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND WINDS ARE ALREADY UPDATED THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON SUING THE 12Z/22 50 50 BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM
MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
DEEPER MOISTURE ON SATURDAY MIGHT RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
FOR A TIME. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IN ENE FLOW MAX GUST 20 MPH.
50 50 BLENDED 12Z/22 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH. WEAK ON SHORE FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
WILL HELP TO KEEP HIGHS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EACH
DAY. BY WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED ENOUGH OFF SHORE TO
LEAVE THE REGION UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN NEAR NORMAL. BUT IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE WARM WEATHER WILL
BE AROUND FOR VERY LONG.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT SLIGHTLY AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS, WITH IT NOW
FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY. THUS...THURSDAY
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE NEAR NORMAL. THE FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT
PROMISING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION, AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...CIGS 1500 TO 3000 FT WITH SCT SPRINKLES
MAYBE REDUCING VSBY TO 5 MI. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE DELMARVA AND
E PA LATE BUT NOT ENVISIONED PREDOMINANT. ELY FLOW MAX GUST 15 KT.

TONIGHT...CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR AT TIMES WITH GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR IFR CONDS IF SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ARE OCCURRING. LIGHT E OR NE FLOW.

SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY...BECOMING VFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH 4 FEET AND WINDS MAY
BEGIN TO GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS EARLY FLOW INCREASES AS
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS
EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS AS EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
LOW ENHANCED RISK THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS MAY INCREASE
TO MODERATE THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE NJ COAST WITH EASTERLY SWELL
OF 3 TO 4 FEET AT 7 SECONDS COMBINING WITH THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW OF 15 KT TO BUILD THE WATER BEHIND THE SAND BARS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG  102
SHORT TERM...DRAG 102
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON 102
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON 102
RIP CURRENTS...102







000
FXUS61 KPHI 221702
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
102 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA NOW, WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH
APPROACHING THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 PM UPDATE; SPRINKLES OCCURRING AT THE OFFICE NOW AS SEEN ON
TPHL..MOVING WEST..SHALLOW LOW TOPPED UNDER 4000 FT.

MEANWHILE SCT SHOWERS IN DEEPER MOISTURE FLOWING SEWD FROM CENTRAL
PA WILL PROBABLY AFFECT INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF E PA AND THE
DELMARVA THIS AFTN AND THUS OUR FCST OF SCT SHOWERS.

WHETHER THERE IS ANY THUNDER IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND NOT LIKELY
EXCEPT MAYBE THE DELMARVA. THUNDER COVERAGE HAS BEEN REDUCED IN
THE FCST BY USING WX TOOL AOB SBLI -2.

OTRW MOCLOUDY. LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

SO I`VE SORT OF GIVEN UP ON THE IDEA OF BIG TSTMS PRODUCING POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING RAINS IN E PA TONIGHT BUT I`D LIKE ANOTHER LOOK
AT LATER MODEL GUIDANCE AROUND 215 PM.

OTRW TONIGHT MO CLOUDY WITH A FEW BANDS OF SHOWERS...MOSTLY LIGHT.

THE FCST TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND WINDS ARE ALREADY UPDATED THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON SUING THE 12Z/22 50 50 BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM
MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
DEEPER MOISTURE ON SATURDAY MIGHT RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
FOR A TIME. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IN ENE FLOW MAX GUST 20 MPH.
50 50 BLENDED 12Z/22 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH. WEAK ON SHORE FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
WILL HELP TO KEEP HIGHS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EACH
DAY. BY WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED ENOUGH OFF SHORE TO
LEAVE THE REGION UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN NEAR NORMAL. BUT IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE WARM WEATHER WILL
BE AROUND FOR VERY LONG.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT SLIGHTLY AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS, WITH IT NOW
FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY. THUS...THURSDAY
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE NEAR NORMAL. THE FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT
PROMISING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION, AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...CIGS 1500 TO 3000 FT WITH SCT SPRINKLES
MAYBE REDUCING VSBY TO 5 MI. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE DELMARVA AND
E PA LATE BUT NOT ENVISIONED PREDOMINANT. ELY FLOW MAX GUST 15 KT.

TONIGHT...CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR AT TIMES WITH GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR IFR CONDS IF SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ARE OCCURRING. LIGHT E OR NE FLOW.

SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY...BECOMING VFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH 4 FEET AND WINDS MAY
BEGIN TO GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS EARLY FLOW INCREASES AS
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS
EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS AS EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
LOW ENHANCED RISK THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS MAY INCREASE
TO MODERATE THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE NJ COAST WITH EASTERLY SWELL
OF 3 TO 4 FEET AT 7 SECONDS COMBINING WITH THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW OF 15 KT TO BUILD THE WATER BEHIND THE SAND BARS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG  102
SHORT TERM...DRAG 102
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON 102
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON 102
RIP CURRENTS...102






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221543
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1143 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WARM AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LIMIT INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON AS A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY FINALLY SAGS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. OPTED TO CUT BACK POPS SIGNIFICANTLY
UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH VERY LITTLE COVERAGE OVER OUR REGION. WHILE
PWATS IN OUR SOUTHERNMOST ZONES WILL STILL BE IN THE 2 INCH RANGE
EARLY TODAY...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THESE VALUES IS EXPECTED. WILL
MAINTAIN THE MENTION FOR ISOLATED FLOODING IN THE HWO SINCE ANY
TRAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER ALREADY SATURATED AREAS COULD
CAUSE PROBLEMS...BUT OVERALL THINK THE THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL VERSUS
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
SHOULD ALSO BE RATHER LOW TODAY WITH VERY WEAK SHEAR AND MINIMAL
INSTABILITY.

LOSS OF HEATING AS WELL AS SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF FRONT WILL
ALLOW COVERAGE TO WANE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGGRESSIVELY BUILD HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC
SAT IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROF BEING PUSHED OUT TO SEA. THIS
CONTINUES THE TREND TOWARDS AN OVERALL DRIER FORECAST FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND. AS FOR SAT...ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
RESIDES THROUGH CENTRAL PA DURING THE MORNING AS A WEAK H5 TROF
APPROACHES. EXPECTING THIS TO ACTIVATE SOME CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD REMAIN
LIMITED. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

TRIMMING BACK POPS AND SKY COVER SUN AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
SUBSIDENCE WILL WORK TO KEEP ANY CONVECTION SUN AT BAY. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT WITH DRIER AIR IN
PLACE...DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES RELAX A LITTLE ON SUN MAKING IT A
LITTLE LESS MUGGY.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS HEIGHTS
BUILD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE WELL ADVERTISED UPPER
RIDGE WILL SETTLE INTO THE OH VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK DEFLECTING WEAK
DISTURBANCES WELL TO THE NORTH. BY WEDS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS A
BROAD TROF DIGS INTO THE PLAINS BRINGING A SWEEPING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES THURS. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS
ALONG THE PROJECTED FRONT DAY 7 AS THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND STRUCTURE OF THIS SYSTEM.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WDPSRD MVFR CIGS SHOULD GRDLY IMPROVE TO VFR THIS AFTN. A CROSSING
DISTURBANCE WL BRING SCT SHWRS AND A FEW TSTMS. WITH CLOUD COVER
LMTG INSTBY...MENTIONED VCTS ONLY FOR SITES S OF PIT WHERE BETTER
INSTBY IS PROGGED...WITH VCSH ELSW THOUGH A TSTM CAN/T BE RULED
OUT. AFT PCPN DCRS AS THE DISTURBANCE EXITS TNGT...EXP IFR FG TO
DVLP AGAIN.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE PSBL SAT IN ISOLD-SCT TSTMS. OTRW...RSTRNS ARE PSBL IN
ERLY MRNG BR.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221543
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1143 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WARM AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LIMIT INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON AS A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY FINALLY SAGS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. OPTED TO CUT BACK POPS SIGNIFICANTLY
UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH VERY LITTLE COVERAGE OVER OUR REGION. WHILE
PWATS IN OUR SOUTHERNMOST ZONES WILL STILL BE IN THE 2 INCH RANGE
EARLY TODAY...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THESE VALUES IS EXPECTED. WILL
MAINTAIN THE MENTION FOR ISOLATED FLOODING IN THE HWO SINCE ANY
TRAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER ALREADY SATURATED AREAS COULD
CAUSE PROBLEMS...BUT OVERALL THINK THE THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL VERSUS
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
SHOULD ALSO BE RATHER LOW TODAY WITH VERY WEAK SHEAR AND MINIMAL
INSTABILITY.

LOSS OF HEATING AS WELL AS SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF FRONT WILL
ALLOW COVERAGE TO WANE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGGRESSIVELY BUILD HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC
SAT IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROF BEING PUSHED OUT TO SEA. THIS
CONTINUES THE TREND TOWARDS AN OVERALL DRIER FORECAST FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND. AS FOR SAT...ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
RESIDES THROUGH CENTRAL PA DURING THE MORNING AS A WEAK H5 TROF
APPROACHES. EXPECTING THIS TO ACTIVATE SOME CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD REMAIN
LIMITED. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

TRIMMING BACK POPS AND SKY COVER SUN AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
SUBSIDENCE WILL WORK TO KEEP ANY CONVECTION SUN AT BAY. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT WITH DRIER AIR IN
PLACE...DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES RELAX A LITTLE ON SUN MAKING IT A
LITTLE LESS MUGGY.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS HEIGHTS
BUILD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE WELL ADVERTISED UPPER
RIDGE WILL SETTLE INTO THE OH VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK DEFLECTING WEAK
DISTURBANCES WELL TO THE NORTH. BY WEDS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS A
BROAD TROF DIGS INTO THE PLAINS BRINGING A SWEEPING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES THURS. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS
ALONG THE PROJECTED FRONT DAY 7 AS THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND STRUCTURE OF THIS SYSTEM.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WDPSRD MVFR CIGS SHOULD GRDLY IMPROVE TO VFR THIS AFTN. A CROSSING
DISTURBANCE WL BRING SCT SHWRS AND A FEW TSTMS. WITH CLOUD COVER
LMTG INSTBY...MENTIONED VCTS ONLY FOR SITES S OF PIT WHERE BETTER
INSTBY IS PROGGED...WITH VCSH ELSW THOUGH A TSTM CAN/T BE RULED
OUT. AFT PCPN DCRS AS THE DISTURBANCE EXITS TNGT...EXP IFR FG TO
DVLP AGAIN.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE PSBL SAT IN ISOLD-SCT TSTMS. OTRW...RSTRNS ARE PSBL IN
ERLY MRNG BR.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KLWX 221438
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1038 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

XPCTG M CLDY TO OVC SKIES THIS AFTN AS THE BNDRY RMNS STALLED
ACROSS THE RGN. 12Z IAD SNDG SHOWS A LGT WIND FIELD...NOT UNCOMMON
FOR THIS TIME OF YR. IF THERE IS A THREAT TDA IT WOULD LKLY BE ANY
HVY RA CELLS THAT FORM WOULD NOT BE MOVG TOO FAST...ALTHO NOT
XPCTG FLSH FLD CONDS TO DVLP.

CLDY SKIES ALSO HELPING TO LIMIT TEMPS FM RISING TOO QUICKLY.
HIGHS XPCTD TO BE IN THE LM80S.

PRVS DSCN...

SUNSET WILL AGAIN BE THE START OF TSTM DISSIPATION W/ ONLY A HANDFUL
OF SHOWERS CONTINUING TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE LATE NIGHT
HRS. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER NEAR 70F FOR ANOTHER HUMID
OVERNIGHT. BATCHES OF MID CLOUD DECKS WILL ALSO HELP SHELTER THE
AREA AND KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS MODERATED NEAR THE 70F MARK.

TOWARD SUNRISE SAT...THE DYNAMIC TRANSITION WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE
OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. THE UPPER LOW SITTING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER
FLOW AND HELP DIG THE RETROGRADED PORTION OF AN UPPER TROUGH BACK
OVER THE AREA ON SAT. THE LAST ARM OF THIS FEATURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE DAYTIME HRS AND BRING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE THEIR COOLEST IN DAYS BUT STILL
REACHING THE L80S BY MID AFTN. HOWEVER...THE INSTABILITY PROFILE
WILL LOOK MORE LIKE THU`S...W/ SFC-BASED CAPES POTENTIALLY IN THE
1-1.5K RANGE W/ A COOLER UPPER LEVEL TEMP PROFILE FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE. STABILITY MAY COME HOWEVER IN THE FORM OF AN ELY LOW
LEVEL WIND...WHICH COULD LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE INITIATION POTENTIAL
IF THE CAP IS TOO STRONG AND SFC TEMPS DON`T REACH THE APPROPRIATE
LEVELS - ESPEC CLOSER TO THE BAY AND NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

SFC HIPRES WL BE BLDG DOWN THE COAST SAT NGT-SUN. AS H5 RDG AXIS
CONTS TO SHARPEN...DRIER AIR WL BE ENTRAINED...AND GRDLY ERODE THE
LLVL MARITIME SATURATION. THAT WL HPPN FIRST ALONG I-95 SAT EVNG.
THINK WE/LL NEED TO HOLD ONTO POPS FOR THE MTNS ALL NGT SAT. FIRST
CLRG WL COME TO METRO BALT ELY SUN...AND WL SPREAD THAT TO THE SW
ACRS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWFA THRUT THE DAY. SUNDAY WL BE A NICER
DAY THAN SAT...EVEN FOR THE MTNS WHICH MAY AVG OUT AS PTSUN VS MOSUN
/OR EVEN SUNNY/.

SINCE ITLL BE CLDY...AND DEWPTS WL BE DROPPING THRU THE 60S...DIDNT
LWR MIN-T AS MUCH AS I CUD HV. AM TAKING A RESERVED APPROACH...W/
MIN-T IN THE 60S AS WELL. DID GO ON THE COOLER EDGE OF MAXT GDNC FOR
SUN...BUT BELIEVE PROLONGED ELY FETCH WL KEEP TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO
WATER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

SFC HIPRES AND H5 RDG AXIS CONT TO BUILD OVER THE MID ATLC THRU THE
XTNDD PD. FLOW WL BE LGT...BUT TEMPS WL GRDLY BE MODERATING BY
MIDWEEK.

A CDFNT DROPPING TWD THE AREA LT WK WL PROVIDE THE ONLY PCPN RISK
DURING THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

M CLDY SKIES TDA...ALTHO VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LATE-DAY TSTMS
POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION. CONDS WILL IMPROVE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MORE DENSE CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY SAT W/ MORE SHOWER/TSTMS EXPECTED ON
SAT.

MAY HV SOME LOW CLDS OR PATCHY FOG TO START THE DAY SUN...OTRW VFR
WL PREVAIL THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...

SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT. A FEW TSTMS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTN/EVE OVER THE WATERS. ELY ONSHORE FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN INTO EARLY SAT...W/ SOME POSSIBLY MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS
ALONG THE WRN SHORES AND MAIN STEM OF THE MD BAY.

ELY/NELY FLOW WL PREVAIL SAT NGT INTO SUN AS HIPRES DRAINS
COOLER/DRIER AIR ACRS WATERS. GDNC SUGGESTS WNDS WL REMAIN AOB 15 KT
DURING THIS TIME. WL GO THAT ROUTE IN THE FCST ATTM...BUT WUDNT BE
SHOCKED IF A FEW HIER GUSTS APPROACHED SCA CRIT IN THE MAIN CHANNEL
OF THE MID BAY. BYD THAT...WNDS WL LESSEN AS HIPRES BLDS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...GMS/HTS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 221438
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1038 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

XPCTG M CLDY TO OVC SKIES THIS AFTN AS THE BNDRY RMNS STALLED
ACROSS THE RGN. 12Z IAD SNDG SHOWS A LGT WIND FIELD...NOT UNCOMMON
FOR THIS TIME OF YR. IF THERE IS A THREAT TDA IT WOULD LKLY BE ANY
HVY RA CELLS THAT FORM WOULD NOT BE MOVG TOO FAST...ALTHO NOT
XPCTG FLSH FLD CONDS TO DVLP.

CLDY SKIES ALSO HELPING TO LIMIT TEMPS FM RISING TOO QUICKLY.
HIGHS XPCTD TO BE IN THE LM80S.

PRVS DSCN...

SUNSET WILL AGAIN BE THE START OF TSTM DISSIPATION W/ ONLY A HANDFUL
OF SHOWERS CONTINUING TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE LATE NIGHT
HRS. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER NEAR 70F FOR ANOTHER HUMID
OVERNIGHT. BATCHES OF MID CLOUD DECKS WILL ALSO HELP SHELTER THE
AREA AND KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS MODERATED NEAR THE 70F MARK.

TOWARD SUNRISE SAT...THE DYNAMIC TRANSITION WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE
OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. THE UPPER LOW SITTING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER
FLOW AND HELP DIG THE RETROGRADED PORTION OF AN UPPER TROUGH BACK
OVER THE AREA ON SAT. THE LAST ARM OF THIS FEATURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE DAYTIME HRS AND BRING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE THEIR COOLEST IN DAYS BUT STILL
REACHING THE L80S BY MID AFTN. HOWEVER...THE INSTABILITY PROFILE
WILL LOOK MORE LIKE THU`S...W/ SFC-BASED CAPES POTENTIALLY IN THE
1-1.5K RANGE W/ A COOLER UPPER LEVEL TEMP PROFILE FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE. STABILITY MAY COME HOWEVER IN THE FORM OF AN ELY LOW
LEVEL WIND...WHICH COULD LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE INITIATION POTENTIAL
IF THE CAP IS TOO STRONG AND SFC TEMPS DON`T REACH THE APPROPRIATE
LEVELS - ESPEC CLOSER TO THE BAY AND NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

SFC HIPRES WL BE BLDG DOWN THE COAST SAT NGT-SUN. AS H5 RDG AXIS
CONTS TO SHARPEN...DRIER AIR WL BE ENTRAINED...AND GRDLY ERODE THE
LLVL MARITIME SATURATION. THAT WL HPPN FIRST ALONG I-95 SAT EVNG.
THINK WE/LL NEED TO HOLD ONTO POPS FOR THE MTNS ALL NGT SAT. FIRST
CLRG WL COME TO METRO BALT ELY SUN...AND WL SPREAD THAT TO THE SW
ACRS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWFA THRUT THE DAY. SUNDAY WL BE A NICER
DAY THAN SAT...EVEN FOR THE MTNS WHICH MAY AVG OUT AS PTSUN VS MOSUN
/OR EVEN SUNNY/.

SINCE ITLL BE CLDY...AND DEWPTS WL BE DROPPING THRU THE 60S...DIDNT
LWR MIN-T AS MUCH AS I CUD HV. AM TAKING A RESERVED APPROACH...W/
MIN-T IN THE 60S AS WELL. DID GO ON THE COOLER EDGE OF MAXT GDNC FOR
SUN...BUT BELIEVE PROLONGED ELY FETCH WL KEEP TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO
WATER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

SFC HIPRES AND H5 RDG AXIS CONT TO BUILD OVER THE MID ATLC THRU THE
XTNDD PD. FLOW WL BE LGT...BUT TEMPS WL GRDLY BE MODERATING BY
MIDWEEK.

A CDFNT DROPPING TWD THE AREA LT WK WL PROVIDE THE ONLY PCPN RISK
DURING THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

M CLDY SKIES TDA...ALTHO VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LATE-DAY TSTMS
POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION. CONDS WILL IMPROVE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MORE DENSE CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY SAT W/ MORE SHOWER/TSTMS EXPECTED ON
SAT.

MAY HV SOME LOW CLDS OR PATCHY FOG TO START THE DAY SUN...OTRW VFR
WL PREVAIL THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...

SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT. A FEW TSTMS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTN/EVE OVER THE WATERS. ELY ONSHORE FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN INTO EARLY SAT...W/ SOME POSSIBLY MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS
ALONG THE WRN SHORES AND MAIN STEM OF THE MD BAY.

ELY/NELY FLOW WL PREVAIL SAT NGT INTO SUN AS HIPRES DRAINS
COOLER/DRIER AIR ACRS WATERS. GDNC SUGGESTS WNDS WL REMAIN AOB 15 KT
DURING THIS TIME. WL GO THAT ROUTE IN THE FCST ATTM...BUT WUDNT BE
SHOCKED IF A FEW HIER GUSTS APPROACHED SCA CRIT IN THE MAIN CHANNEL
OF THE MID BAY. BYD THAT...WNDS WL LESSEN AS HIPRES BLDS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...GMS/HTS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 221438
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1038 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

XPCTG M CLDY TO OVC SKIES THIS AFTN AS THE BNDRY RMNS STALLED
ACROSS THE RGN. 12Z IAD SNDG SHOWS A LGT WIND FIELD...NOT UNCOMMON
FOR THIS TIME OF YR. IF THERE IS A THREAT TDA IT WOULD LKLY BE ANY
HVY RA CELLS THAT FORM WOULD NOT BE MOVG TOO FAST...ALTHO NOT
XPCTG FLSH FLD CONDS TO DVLP.

CLDY SKIES ALSO HELPING TO LIMIT TEMPS FM RISING TOO QUICKLY.
HIGHS XPCTD TO BE IN THE LM80S.

PRVS DSCN...

SUNSET WILL AGAIN BE THE START OF TSTM DISSIPATION W/ ONLY A HANDFUL
OF SHOWERS CONTINUING TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE LATE NIGHT
HRS. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER NEAR 70F FOR ANOTHER HUMID
OVERNIGHT. BATCHES OF MID CLOUD DECKS WILL ALSO HELP SHELTER THE
AREA AND KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS MODERATED NEAR THE 70F MARK.

TOWARD SUNRISE SAT...THE DYNAMIC TRANSITION WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE
OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. THE UPPER LOW SITTING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER
FLOW AND HELP DIG THE RETROGRADED PORTION OF AN UPPER TROUGH BACK
OVER THE AREA ON SAT. THE LAST ARM OF THIS FEATURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE DAYTIME HRS AND BRING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE THEIR COOLEST IN DAYS BUT STILL
REACHING THE L80S BY MID AFTN. HOWEVER...THE INSTABILITY PROFILE
WILL LOOK MORE LIKE THU`S...W/ SFC-BASED CAPES POTENTIALLY IN THE
1-1.5K RANGE W/ A COOLER UPPER LEVEL TEMP PROFILE FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE. STABILITY MAY COME HOWEVER IN THE FORM OF AN ELY LOW
LEVEL WIND...WHICH COULD LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE INITIATION POTENTIAL
IF THE CAP IS TOO STRONG AND SFC TEMPS DON`T REACH THE APPROPRIATE
LEVELS - ESPEC CLOSER TO THE BAY AND NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

SFC HIPRES WL BE BLDG DOWN THE COAST SAT NGT-SUN. AS H5 RDG AXIS
CONTS TO SHARPEN...DRIER AIR WL BE ENTRAINED...AND GRDLY ERODE THE
LLVL MARITIME SATURATION. THAT WL HPPN FIRST ALONG I-95 SAT EVNG.
THINK WE/LL NEED TO HOLD ONTO POPS FOR THE MTNS ALL NGT SAT. FIRST
CLRG WL COME TO METRO BALT ELY SUN...AND WL SPREAD THAT TO THE SW
ACRS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWFA THRUT THE DAY. SUNDAY WL BE A NICER
DAY THAN SAT...EVEN FOR THE MTNS WHICH MAY AVG OUT AS PTSUN VS MOSUN
/OR EVEN SUNNY/.

SINCE ITLL BE CLDY...AND DEWPTS WL BE DROPPING THRU THE 60S...DIDNT
LWR MIN-T AS MUCH AS I CUD HV. AM TAKING A RESERVED APPROACH...W/
MIN-T IN THE 60S AS WELL. DID GO ON THE COOLER EDGE OF MAXT GDNC FOR
SUN...BUT BELIEVE PROLONGED ELY FETCH WL KEEP TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO
WATER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

SFC HIPRES AND H5 RDG AXIS CONT TO BUILD OVER THE MID ATLC THRU THE
XTNDD PD. FLOW WL BE LGT...BUT TEMPS WL GRDLY BE MODERATING BY
MIDWEEK.

A CDFNT DROPPING TWD THE AREA LT WK WL PROVIDE THE ONLY PCPN RISK
DURING THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

M CLDY SKIES TDA...ALTHO VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LATE-DAY TSTMS
POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION. CONDS WILL IMPROVE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MORE DENSE CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY SAT W/ MORE SHOWER/TSTMS EXPECTED ON
SAT.

MAY HV SOME LOW CLDS OR PATCHY FOG TO START THE DAY SUN...OTRW VFR
WL PREVAIL THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...

SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT. A FEW TSTMS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTN/EVE OVER THE WATERS. ELY ONSHORE FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN INTO EARLY SAT...W/ SOME POSSIBLY MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS
ALONG THE WRN SHORES AND MAIN STEM OF THE MD BAY.

ELY/NELY FLOW WL PREVAIL SAT NGT INTO SUN AS HIPRES DRAINS
COOLER/DRIER AIR ACRS WATERS. GDNC SUGGESTS WNDS WL REMAIN AOB 15 KT
DURING THIS TIME. WL GO THAT ROUTE IN THE FCST ATTM...BUT WUDNT BE
SHOCKED IF A FEW HIER GUSTS APPROACHED SCA CRIT IN THE MAIN CHANNEL
OF THE MID BAY. BYD THAT...WNDS WL LESSEN AS HIPRES BLDS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...GMS/HTS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 221438
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1038 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

XPCTG M CLDY TO OVC SKIES THIS AFTN AS THE BNDRY RMNS STALLED
ACROSS THE RGN. 12Z IAD SNDG SHOWS A LGT WIND FIELD...NOT UNCOMMON
FOR THIS TIME OF YR. IF THERE IS A THREAT TDA IT WOULD LKLY BE ANY
HVY RA CELLS THAT FORM WOULD NOT BE MOVG TOO FAST...ALTHO NOT
XPCTG FLSH FLD CONDS TO DVLP.

CLDY SKIES ALSO HELPING TO LIMIT TEMPS FM RISING TOO QUICKLY.
HIGHS XPCTD TO BE IN THE LM80S.

PRVS DSCN...

SUNSET WILL AGAIN BE THE START OF TSTM DISSIPATION W/ ONLY A HANDFUL
OF SHOWERS CONTINUING TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE LATE NIGHT
HRS. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER NEAR 70F FOR ANOTHER HUMID
OVERNIGHT. BATCHES OF MID CLOUD DECKS WILL ALSO HELP SHELTER THE
AREA AND KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS MODERATED NEAR THE 70F MARK.

TOWARD SUNRISE SAT...THE DYNAMIC TRANSITION WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE
OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. THE UPPER LOW SITTING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER
FLOW AND HELP DIG THE RETROGRADED PORTION OF AN UPPER TROUGH BACK
OVER THE AREA ON SAT. THE LAST ARM OF THIS FEATURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE DAYTIME HRS AND BRING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE THEIR COOLEST IN DAYS BUT STILL
REACHING THE L80S BY MID AFTN. HOWEVER...THE INSTABILITY PROFILE
WILL LOOK MORE LIKE THU`S...W/ SFC-BASED CAPES POTENTIALLY IN THE
1-1.5K RANGE W/ A COOLER UPPER LEVEL TEMP PROFILE FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE. STABILITY MAY COME HOWEVER IN THE FORM OF AN ELY LOW
LEVEL WIND...WHICH COULD LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE INITIATION POTENTIAL
IF THE CAP IS TOO STRONG AND SFC TEMPS DON`T REACH THE APPROPRIATE
LEVELS - ESPEC CLOSER TO THE BAY AND NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

SFC HIPRES WL BE BLDG DOWN THE COAST SAT NGT-SUN. AS H5 RDG AXIS
CONTS TO SHARPEN...DRIER AIR WL BE ENTRAINED...AND GRDLY ERODE THE
LLVL MARITIME SATURATION. THAT WL HPPN FIRST ALONG I-95 SAT EVNG.
THINK WE/LL NEED TO HOLD ONTO POPS FOR THE MTNS ALL NGT SAT. FIRST
CLRG WL COME TO METRO BALT ELY SUN...AND WL SPREAD THAT TO THE SW
ACRS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWFA THRUT THE DAY. SUNDAY WL BE A NICER
DAY THAN SAT...EVEN FOR THE MTNS WHICH MAY AVG OUT AS PTSUN VS MOSUN
/OR EVEN SUNNY/.

SINCE ITLL BE CLDY...AND DEWPTS WL BE DROPPING THRU THE 60S...DIDNT
LWR MIN-T AS MUCH AS I CUD HV. AM TAKING A RESERVED APPROACH...W/
MIN-T IN THE 60S AS WELL. DID GO ON THE COOLER EDGE OF MAXT GDNC FOR
SUN...BUT BELIEVE PROLONGED ELY FETCH WL KEEP TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO
WATER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

SFC HIPRES AND H5 RDG AXIS CONT TO BUILD OVER THE MID ATLC THRU THE
XTNDD PD. FLOW WL BE LGT...BUT TEMPS WL GRDLY BE MODERATING BY
MIDWEEK.

A CDFNT DROPPING TWD THE AREA LT WK WL PROVIDE THE ONLY PCPN RISK
DURING THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

M CLDY SKIES TDA...ALTHO VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LATE-DAY TSTMS
POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION. CONDS WILL IMPROVE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MORE DENSE CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY SAT W/ MORE SHOWER/TSTMS EXPECTED ON
SAT.

MAY HV SOME LOW CLDS OR PATCHY FOG TO START THE DAY SUN...OTRW VFR
WL PREVAIL THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...

SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT. A FEW TSTMS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTN/EVE OVER THE WATERS. ELY ONSHORE FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN INTO EARLY SAT...W/ SOME POSSIBLY MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS
ALONG THE WRN SHORES AND MAIN STEM OF THE MD BAY.

ELY/NELY FLOW WL PREVAIL SAT NGT INTO SUN AS HIPRES DRAINS
COOLER/DRIER AIR ACRS WATERS. GDNC SUGGESTS WNDS WL REMAIN AOB 15 KT
DURING THIS TIME. WL GO THAT ROUTE IN THE FCST ATTM...BUT WUDNT BE
SHOCKED IF A FEW HIER GUSTS APPROACHED SCA CRIT IN THE MAIN CHANNEL
OF THE MID BAY. BYD THAT...WNDS WL LESSEN AS HIPRES BLDS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...GMS/HTS








000
FXUS61 KPHI 221427
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1027 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA NOW, WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH
APPROACHING THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1017AM UPDATE TO ADD SPRINKLES INTO THE LATE MORNING PORTION OF
THE FCST AWAY FROM THE COAST AND OTHERWISE DIMINISHED THE CHANCE
OF RAIN ALONG THE COAST TO NO MENTION.

PWAT 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES WITH ML CAPE 500 TO 1000J SETS THE STAGE
FOR MORE GULLY WASHERS LATE THIS AFTN OR TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN
E PA AND OR W NJ AS PER THE 06Z NAM. SUCCESSIVE CYCLES OF THE NAM
AND THE 00Z/21 NSSL WRF AS WELL AS THE ECMWF TO SOME EXTENT WERE
THE BEST MODELS AT HIGHLIGHTING LAST NIGHTS TORRENTS THAT IN SOME
PLACES WERE EXCESSIVE ACROSS NE PA AND NW NJ. LSR`S AND PNS`S WILL
HIGHLIGHT THOSE AMTS.

THIS MORNING...WE`RE IN A LULL AS PER COSPA/HRRR AND INN THE
PROCESS OF LIFTING AND THINNING THE CIGS OF 500 TO 1500 FT.

THIS AFTERNOON...COOLER THAN YDY DUE TO COMBINED CLOUD AND EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. HOW MUCH DEVELOPS IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS IS
DEBATABLE BUT MAINTAINED CONTINUITY WITH OUR EARLIER FCST.

TONIGHT...UPSLOPE FLOW AND POSSIBLY A NW FLOW SHORT WAVE TRIGGER
MAY BE FAVORING A POCKET OR TWO OF EXCESSIVE RAIN IN E PA. JURY
STILL OUT ON THIS AND AM UNLIKELY TO HIT THIS HARD TONIGHT PER
THE 12Z/22 NAM DELAY AND FURTHER WEST...NOW AXISED FROM KILG-
KIPT. STILL SOMETHING SUBSTANTIAL IS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN A NARROW
SWATH OF E PA SOMETIME LATER TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
ALMOST SEEMS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD; THERE REMAINS THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY MAX PUSHES ACROSS THE
AREA. ONCE THIS IMPULSE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING,
SHOWER CHANCES DROP OFF OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST.

CONTINUED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND ECMWF 2M TEMPS FOR
HIGHS AND LOWS TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH. WEAK ON SHORE FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
WILL HELP TO KEEP HIGHS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EACH
DAY. BY WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED ENOUGH OFF SHORE TO
LEAVE THE REGION UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN NEAR NORMAL. BUT IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE WARM WEATHER WILL
BE AROUND FOR VERY LONG.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT SLIGHTLY AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS, WITH IT NOW
FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY. THUS...THURSDAY
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE NEAR NORMAL. THE FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT
PROMISING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION, AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...CIGS 700 TO 2000 FT AT 14Z WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO MAINLY
VFR CIGS THIS AFTN. SCATTERED SPRINKLES POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
SCATTERED HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE LATER TODAY, SO THEY
WERE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AS VCSH. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND TIMING WAS LOW, SO
THEY WERE KEPT OUT FOR NOW. WINDS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF
THE EAST SOUTHEAST 5-10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 15 KT POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...WE EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATER
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE TAF SITES AS MOISTURE POOLS AT THE LOW-
LEVEL INVERSION. IN FACT, CIGS MAY END UP LOWERING TO IFR FOR MANY
AREAS OVERNIGHT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR A TSTM...ESPECIALLY E PA TAF
SITES. WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY 5-10 KNOTS.

SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY...BECOMING VFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH 4 FEET AND WINDS MAY
BEGIN TO GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS EARLY FLOW INCREASES AS
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS
EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS AS EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
RIGHT NOW LOW RISK TODAY SINCE THE GUSTY EAST WINDS OF VERY EARLY
THIS MORNING HAVE SUBSIDED.

THE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS MAY INCREASE
TO MODERATE THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE NJ COAST WITH EASTERLY SWELL
OF 3 TO 4 FEET AT 7 SECONDS COMBINING WITH THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW OF 15 KT TO BUILD THE WATER BEHIND THE SAND BARS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG  1026
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON 1026
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON
RIP CURRENTS...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221404
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1004 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND IS
SLOW TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INITIAL S/W EXITING THE CST THIS MRNG RESULTING IN OVERNIGHT
SHRAS/TSTMS NOW MOVING WELL OFF THE ATLC CST. MOST AREAS SHOULD BE
DRY THROUGH MIDDAY ASIDE FROM WEAKENING -SHRA DRIFTING INTO THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES LATE THIS MRNG. OTRW...STARTING OUT P/MCLDY
CONDS.

NW FLO RMNS OVER THE REGION TDA. A SECOND...PTNTLLY MORE VIGOROUS
S/W FM THE ERN OH DROPS THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING
THIS AFTN. THIS SYS XPCD TO PROVIDE BEST CHC OF AND GREATEST AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHRAS/TSTMS ACROSS THE FA DUE TO MORE
FAVORABLE/STRONGER UPPER JET SUPPORT. POCKETS OF MDT TO HVY RA ARE
POSSIBLE GIVEN MODEST MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE UPPER SUPPORT. THE
SKY BECOMES MNLY CLDY ACRS THE FA BY MIDDAY/AFTN HRS. HI TEMPS FM
THE L/M80S NR THE CST...TO THE M/U80S ELSW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CONTD HI PROB FOR SHRAS/TSTMS TNGT INTO SAT MRNG AS S/W DIVES SE
THROUGH AREA THEN OFFSHORE. ADDITIONALLY...SFC WNDS BECOME ENE AND
CLDNS RMNS WIDESPREAD. LOCALLY MDT/HVY RA WILL CONT TO BE
PSBL. WILL HANG ONTO WIDESPREAD CLDNS AND CHC POPS SAT AFTN INTO
SAT NGT AS ONSHORE WNDS CONT. HAVE CONFINED PSBL TSTMS TO AREAS
AWAY FM THE CST (WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED THAT DUE TO LIMITED/NO
INSTABILITY THAT ANY TSTMS WILL BE WELL S AND/OR W OF THE FA).

SFC HI PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND SAT SLOWLY PUSHES S AND INTO THE
REGION BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A REMNANT SFC FRONT S OF THE
AREA. SUN XPCD TO BE P/MSNY...W/ SLGT CHC POPS MNLY CONFINED TO
CSTL SECTIONS IN SE VA/NE NC. WNDS WILL CONT TO BE FM THE NE...A
BIT BREEZY AT THE CST.

HI TEMPS SAT 80 TO 85F (U70S ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES)...W/
U70S TO L80S SUNDAY. LOWS RANGING FM THE U60S TO L70S TNGT...THEN
MNLY IN THE 60S SAT NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF MAINLY NE FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH RIDGES SOUTH WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EMERGES FROM THE BAHAMAS. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A COOLER
MARITIME AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BEGIN TO CENTER THEMSELVES OVER
THE FA. AT THIS POINT SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL AND WILL HELP TO DRY
THE ATMOSPHERE. PRECIP ALONG THE VA/NC COAST CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT DUE TO THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE NORTH AS THE SURFACE LOW
FORMS TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY IN REGARDS TO
THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. AND
DUE TO THE LARGE DEGREE OF CHANGE IN MODEL RUNS...AT THIS POINT...
WILL NOT MODIFY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TOO MUCH.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 MON AND TUES...WARMING SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID 80S
WED AND THUR. SEASONAL LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE LIKELY
AS THE MARITIME AIRMASS WILL LIMIT SIGNIFICANT OVERNIGHT COOLING.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 11Z...A FRNTAL BNDRY IS STALLED OVR THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HI
PRES LOCATED OVR THE NE STATES. THE COMBO OF CALM/LGT WINDS ALONG
THE FRNT AND DECENT LO-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS LED TO LO CIGS AND VSBYS
ERLY THIS MORNG IN SOME AREAS. ANY MVFR/IFR SHOULD END BY LATER
THIS MORNG...WITH LGT WINDS AND SOME LO/MID-LEVEL CLOUDS STICKING
AROUND THRU THE DAY. ISO/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY
LATE IN THE DAY OR DURING THE EVENG HOURS...BUT CHANCE IS NOT HI
ENUF TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK...SHRA/TSTM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER FORECASTED BEGINNING SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR DUE TO STRATUS OR FOG
WILL BE A POTENTIAL A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. STATIONARY FRNTAL BNDRY
REMAINS OVR THE AREA THIS MORNG...LEADING TO LGT/VRB WINDS. LO PRES
WILL FORM ALONG THE FRNT TDA...WITH WINDS BCMG N/NE BEHIND THE LO
THIS AFTN. EXPECT MAINLY 2 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS AND 1-2 WAVES OVR
THE BAY. THE FRNT PUSHES S OF THE AREA FRI NGT AS HI PRES NOSES S FM
THE NE STATES. ENERGY STREAMING SE WILL HELP FORM AN AREA OF LO PRES
OFF THE CAROLINA CST. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL ENHANCE THE PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS THE WTRS CAUSING NEAR SCA WIND GUSTS OVR THE BAY
(18-20 KT) AND CSTL WTRS (23-25 KT) ON SAT. DUE TO THE WIND
DIRECTION AND FETCH...EXPECT SEAS TO BLD TO 4-5 FT OVR THE OCEAN
BY SAT EVENG. WITH THIS BEING MAINLY 4TH PERIOD...WILL NOT ISSUE A
SCA ATTM. HI PRES BEGINS TO POSITION ITSELF OVR THE AREA BY MON/TUE
BUT LO PRES EMERGING FROM THE S MAY HELP TO MAINTAIN THE PRES
GRADIENT AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS





000
FXUS61 KPHI 221339
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
939 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA NOW, WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH
APPROACHING THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PWAT 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES WITH ML CAPE 500 TO 1000J SETS THE STAGE
FOR MORE GULLY WASHERS LATE THIS AFTN OR TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN
E PA AND OR W NJ AS PER THE 06Z NAM. SUCCESSIVE CYCLES OF THE NAM
AND THE 00Z/21 NSSL WRF AS WELL AS THE ECMWF TO SOME EXTENT WERE
THE BEST MODELS AT HIGHLIGHTING LAST NIGHTS TORRENTS THAT IN SOME
PLACES WERE EXCESSIVE ACROSS NE PA AND NW NJ. LSR`S AND PNS`S WILL
HIGHLIGHT THOSE AMTS.

THIS MORNING...WE`RE IN A LULL AS PER COSPA/HRRR AND INN THE
PROCESS OF LIFTING AND THINNING THE CIGS OF 500 TO 1500 FT.

THIS AFTERNOON...COOLER THAN YDY DUE TO COMBINED CLOUD AND EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. HOW MUCH DEVELOPS IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS IS
DEBATABLE BUT MAINTAINED CONTINUITY WITH OUR EARLIER FCST.

TONIGHT...UPSLOPE FLOW AND POSSIBLY A NW FLOW SHORT WAVE TRIGGER
MAY BE FAVORING A POCKET OR TWO OF EXCESSIVE RAIN IN E PA. JURY
STILL OUT ON THIS BUT NEED TO SEE HOW THE 12Z/22 NAM HANDLES QPF
POTENTIAL.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
ALMOST SEEMS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD; THERE REMAINS THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY MAX PUSHES ACROSS THE
AREA. ONCE THIS IMPULSE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING,
SHOWER CHANCES DROP OFF OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST.

CONTINUED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND ECMWF 2M TEMPS FOR
HIGHS AND LOWS TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH. WEAK ON SHORE FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
WILL HELP TO KEEP HIGHS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EACH
DAY. BY WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED ENOUGH OFF SHORE TO
LEAVE THE REGION UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN NEAR NORMAL. BUT IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE WARM WEATHER WILL
BE AROUND FOR VERY LONG.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT SLIGHTLY AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS, WITH IT NOW
FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY. THUS...THURSDAY
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE NEAR NORMAL. THE FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT
PROMISING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION, AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...CIGS 500 TO 1500 FT AT 13Z WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO MAINLY VFR
CIGS THIS AFTN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE LATER TODAY,
SO THEY WERE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AS VCSH. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND TIMING WAS LOW, SO
THEY WERE KEPT OUT FOR NOW. WINDS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF
THE EAST SOUTHEAST 5-10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 15 KT POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...WE EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATER
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE TAF SITES AS MOISTURE POOLS AT THE LOW-
LEVEL INVERSION. IN FACT, CIGS MAY END UP LOWERING TO IFR FOR MANY
AREAS OVERNIGHT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR A TSTM...ESPECIALLY E PA TAF
SITES. WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY 5-10 KNOTS.

SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY...BECOMING VFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH 4 FEET AND WINDS MAY
BEGIN TO GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS EARLY FLOW INCREASES AS
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS
EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS AS EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
RIGHT NOW LOW RISK TODAY SINCE THE GUSTY EAST WINDS OF VERY EARLY
THIS MORNING HAVE SUBSIDED.

THE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS MAY INCREASE
TO MODERATE THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE NJ COAST WITH EASTERLY SWELL
OF 3 TO 4 FEET AT 7 SECONDS COMBINING WITH THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW OF 15 KT TO BUILD THE WATER BEHIND THE SAND BARS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/ROBERTSON  938
SHORT TERM...DRAG/ROBERTSON 938
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON 938
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON 938
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG 938






000
FXUS61 KPHI 221339
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
939 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA NOW, WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH
APPROACHING THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PWAT 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES WITH ML CAPE 500 TO 1000J SETS THE STAGE
FOR MORE GULLY WASHERS LATE THIS AFTN OR TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN
E PA AND OR W NJ AS PER THE 06Z NAM. SUCCESSIVE CYCLES OF THE NAM
AND THE 00Z/21 NSSL WRF AS WELL AS THE ECMWF TO SOME EXTENT WERE
THE BEST MODELS AT HIGHLIGHTING LAST NIGHTS TORRENTS THAT IN SOME
PLACES WERE EXCESSIVE ACROSS NE PA AND NW NJ. LSR`S AND PNS`S WILL
HIGHLIGHT THOSE AMTS.

THIS MORNING...WE`RE IN A LULL AS PER COSPA/HRRR AND INN THE
PROCESS OF LIFTING AND THINNING THE CIGS OF 500 TO 1500 FT.

THIS AFTERNOON...COOLER THAN YDY DUE TO COMBINED CLOUD AND EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. HOW MUCH DEVELOPS IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS IS
DEBATABLE BUT MAINTAINED CONTINUITY WITH OUR EARLIER FCST.

TONIGHT...UPSLOPE FLOW AND POSSIBLY A NW FLOW SHORT WAVE TRIGGER
MAY BE FAVORING A POCKET OR TWO OF EXCESSIVE RAIN IN E PA. JURY
STILL OUT ON THIS BUT NEED TO SEE HOW THE 12Z/22 NAM HANDLES QPF
POTENTIAL.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
ALMOST SEEMS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD; THERE REMAINS THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY MAX PUSHES ACROSS THE
AREA. ONCE THIS IMPULSE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING,
SHOWER CHANCES DROP OFF OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST.

CONTINUED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND ECMWF 2M TEMPS FOR
HIGHS AND LOWS TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH. WEAK ON SHORE FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
WILL HELP TO KEEP HIGHS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EACH
DAY. BY WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED ENOUGH OFF SHORE TO
LEAVE THE REGION UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN NEAR NORMAL. BUT IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE WARM WEATHER WILL
BE AROUND FOR VERY LONG.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT SLIGHTLY AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS, WITH IT NOW
FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY. THUS...THURSDAY
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE NEAR NORMAL. THE FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT
PROMISING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION, AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...CIGS 500 TO 1500 FT AT 13Z WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO MAINLY VFR
CIGS THIS AFTN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE LATER TODAY,
SO THEY WERE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AS VCSH. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND TIMING WAS LOW, SO
THEY WERE KEPT OUT FOR NOW. WINDS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF
THE EAST SOUTHEAST 5-10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 15 KT POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...WE EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATER
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE TAF SITES AS MOISTURE POOLS AT THE LOW-
LEVEL INVERSION. IN FACT, CIGS MAY END UP LOWERING TO IFR FOR MANY
AREAS OVERNIGHT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR A TSTM...ESPECIALLY E PA TAF
SITES. WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY 5-10 KNOTS.

SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY...BECOMING VFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH 4 FEET AND WINDS MAY
BEGIN TO GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS EARLY FLOW INCREASES AS
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS
EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS AS EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
RIGHT NOW LOW RISK TODAY SINCE THE GUSTY EAST WINDS OF VERY EARLY
THIS MORNING HAVE SUBSIDED.

THE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS MAY INCREASE
TO MODERATE THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE NJ COAST WITH EASTERLY SWELL
OF 3 TO 4 FEET AT 7 SECONDS COMBINING WITH THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW OF 15 KT TO BUILD THE WATER BEHIND THE SAND BARS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/ROBERTSON  938
SHORT TERM...DRAG/ROBERTSON 938
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON 938
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON 938
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG 938







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221148
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
748 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND
WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
650 AM UPDATE...MCS LEFTOVERS HAVE ALL BUT DISSIPATED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN BEHIND. WATCHING NEXT
COMPLEX OVER INDIANA/WESTERN OHIO BUT STILL THINK THE BULK OF THIS
WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AS WELL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

CWA IS MISSING THE BULK OF THE IMPACT FROM MCS LEFTOVERS ROLLING
TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO INTO WEST VIRGINIA.
SOME OUTFLOW-GENERATED ACTIVITY HAS GENERATED A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS IN EASTERN OHIO HOWEVER.  HAVE THIS ROLLING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CWA WITH LIKELY POPS FOR A FEW HOURS.  EARLIER LAKE ERIE
STORMS HAVE DEGENERATED INTO A FEW SHOWERS SINKING TOWARDS THE FKL
AREA.

WHILE LIKELY POPS LOOK APPROPRIATE FOR MOST OF THE AREA...STILL
THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL STAYS OFF TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY.
PERSISTENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL START TO GET NUDGED SOUTHWARD WITH
TIME...AS THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST INDUCES MORE NORTHERLY FLOW
OVER OUR AREA.  RICHER MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF 2+ PWAT REMAINS
MAINLY FROM SOUTHEAST OHIO INTO WV...WHERE THICKNESS/CORFIDI VECTOR
PATTERNS SUPPORT CONTINUED PROPAGATION OF SHOWERS/STORMS.  MUCH OF
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ARE RELATIVELY DRIER AS WELL.  LATEST HPC
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOLLOWS THIS THINKING...KEEPING THE
THREAT JUST OFF TO THE SOUTH.  WILL THEREFORE HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD
WATCH BUT WILL MAINTAIN HWO MENTION OF POSSIBLE ISOLATED PROBLEMS.
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AS
WELL...BUT ORGANIZATION OF THESE WILL REMAIN LIMITED.

LOSS OF HEATING AS WELL AS SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF FRONT WILL
ALLOW COVERAGE TO WANE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING
ISOLATED SHRA AT BEST AROUND 12Z. LINGERING CLOUDS MAY HINDER MUCH
IN THE WAY OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT.

DID NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES...WHICH WERE IN LINE WITH
LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGGRESSIVELY BUILD HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC
SAT IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROF BEING PUSHED OUT TO SEA. THIS
CONTINUES THE TREND TOWARDS AN OVERALL DRIER FORECAST FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND. AS FOR SAT...ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
RESIDES THROUGH CENTRAL PA DURING THE MORNING AS A WEAK H5 TROF
APPROACHES. EXPECTING THIS TO ACTIVATE SOME CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD REMAIN
LIMITED. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

TRIMMING BACK POPS AND SKY COVER SUN AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
SUBSIDENCE WILL WORK TO KEEP ANY CONVECTION SUN AT BAY. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT WITH DRIER AIR IN
PLACE...DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES RELAX A LITTLE ON SUN MAKING IT A
LITTLE LESS MUGGY.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS HEIGHTS
BUILD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE WELL ADVERTISED UPPER
RIDGE WILL SETTLE INTO THE OH VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK DEFLECTING WEAK
DISTURBANCES WELL TO THE NORTH. BY WEDS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS A
BROAD TROF DIGS INTO THE PLAINS BRINGING A SWEEPING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES THURS. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS
ALONG THE PROJECTED FRONT DAY 7 AS THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND STRUCTURE OF THIS SYSTEM.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WDPSRD MVFR TO IFR CONDS WL CONT THIS MRNG IN FOG/ST. EXP A GRDL
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY ERLY AFTN...THOUGH A CROSSING DISTURBANCE WL
BRING SCT TO NMRS SHWRS AND A FEW TSTMS. WITH CLOUD COVER LMTG
INSTBY...MENTIONED VCTS ONLY FOR SITES S OF PIT WHERE BETTER
INSTBY IS PROGGED...WITH VCSH ELSW THOUGH A TSTM CAN/T BE RULED
OUT. AFT PCPN DCRS AS THE DISTURBANCE EXITS TNGT...EXP IFR FG TO
DVLP AGAIN.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE PSBL SAT IN ISOLD-SCT TSTMS. OTRW...RSTRNS ARE PSBL IN
ERLY MRNG BR.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221148
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
748 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND
WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
650 AM UPDATE...MCS LEFTOVERS HAVE ALL BUT DISSIPATED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN BEHIND. WATCHING NEXT
COMPLEX OVER INDIANA/WESTERN OHIO BUT STILL THINK THE BULK OF THIS
WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AS WELL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

CWA IS MISSING THE BULK OF THE IMPACT FROM MCS LEFTOVERS ROLLING
TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO INTO WEST VIRGINIA.
SOME OUTFLOW-GENERATED ACTIVITY HAS GENERATED A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS IN EASTERN OHIO HOWEVER.  HAVE THIS ROLLING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CWA WITH LIKELY POPS FOR A FEW HOURS.  EARLIER LAKE ERIE
STORMS HAVE DEGENERATED INTO A FEW SHOWERS SINKING TOWARDS THE FKL
AREA.

WHILE LIKELY POPS LOOK APPROPRIATE FOR MOST OF THE AREA...STILL
THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL STAYS OFF TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY.
PERSISTENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL START TO GET NUDGED SOUTHWARD WITH
TIME...AS THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST INDUCES MORE NORTHERLY FLOW
OVER OUR AREA.  RICHER MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF 2+ PWAT REMAINS
MAINLY FROM SOUTHEAST OHIO INTO WV...WHERE THICKNESS/CORFIDI VECTOR
PATTERNS SUPPORT CONTINUED PROPAGATION OF SHOWERS/STORMS.  MUCH OF
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ARE RELATIVELY DRIER AS WELL.  LATEST HPC
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOLLOWS THIS THINKING...KEEPING THE
THREAT JUST OFF TO THE SOUTH.  WILL THEREFORE HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD
WATCH BUT WILL MAINTAIN HWO MENTION OF POSSIBLE ISOLATED PROBLEMS.
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AS
WELL...BUT ORGANIZATION OF THESE WILL REMAIN LIMITED.

LOSS OF HEATING AS WELL AS SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF FRONT WILL
ALLOW COVERAGE TO WANE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING
ISOLATED SHRA AT BEST AROUND 12Z. LINGERING CLOUDS MAY HINDER MUCH
IN THE WAY OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT.

DID NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES...WHICH WERE IN LINE WITH
LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGGRESSIVELY BUILD HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC
SAT IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROF BEING PUSHED OUT TO SEA. THIS
CONTINUES THE TREND TOWARDS AN OVERALL DRIER FORECAST FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND. AS FOR SAT...ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
RESIDES THROUGH CENTRAL PA DURING THE MORNING AS A WEAK H5 TROF
APPROACHES. EXPECTING THIS TO ACTIVATE SOME CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD REMAIN
LIMITED. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

TRIMMING BACK POPS AND SKY COVER SUN AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
SUBSIDENCE WILL WORK TO KEEP ANY CONVECTION SUN AT BAY. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT WITH DRIER AIR IN
PLACE...DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES RELAX A LITTLE ON SUN MAKING IT A
LITTLE LESS MUGGY.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS HEIGHTS
BUILD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE WELL ADVERTISED UPPER
RIDGE WILL SETTLE INTO THE OH VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK DEFLECTING WEAK
DISTURBANCES WELL TO THE NORTH. BY WEDS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS A
BROAD TROF DIGS INTO THE PLAINS BRINGING A SWEEPING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES THURS. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS
ALONG THE PROJECTED FRONT DAY 7 AS THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND STRUCTURE OF THIS SYSTEM.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WDPSRD MVFR TO IFR CONDS WL CONT THIS MRNG IN FOG/ST. EXP A GRDL
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY ERLY AFTN...THOUGH A CROSSING DISTURBANCE WL
BRING SCT TO NMRS SHWRS AND A FEW TSTMS. WITH CLOUD COVER LMTG
INSTBY...MENTIONED VCTS ONLY FOR SITES S OF PIT WHERE BETTER
INSTBY IS PROGGED...WITH VCSH ELSW THOUGH A TSTM CAN/T BE RULED
OUT. AFT PCPN DCRS AS THE DISTURBANCE EXITS TNGT...EXP IFR FG TO
DVLP AGAIN.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE PSBL SAT IN ISOLD-SCT TSTMS. OTRW...RSTRNS ARE PSBL IN
ERLY MRNG BR.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221048
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
648 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND
WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
650 AM UPDATE...MCS LEFTOVERS HAVE ALL BUT DISSIPATED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN BEHIND. WATCHING NEXT
COMPLEX OVER INDIANA/WESTERN OHIO BUT STILL THINK THE BULK OF THIS
WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AS WELL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

CWA IS MISSING THE BULK OF THE IMPACT FROM MCS LEFTOVERS ROLLING
TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO INTO WEST VIRGINIA.
SOME OUTFLOW-GENERATED ACTIVITY HAS GENERATED A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS IN EASTERN OHIO HOWEVER.  HAVE THIS ROLLING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CWA WITH LIKELY POPS FOR A FEW HOURS.  EARLIER LAKE ERIE
STORMS HAVE DEGENERATED INTO A FEW SHOWERS SINKING TOWARDS THE FKL
AREA.

WHILE LIKELY POPS LOOK APPROPRIATE FOR MOST OF THE AREA...STILL
THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL STAYS OFF TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY.
PERSISTENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL START TO GET NUDGED SOUTHWARD WITH
TIME...AS THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST INDUCES MORE NORTHERLY FLOW
OVER OUR AREA.  RICHER MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF 2+ PWAT REMAINS
MAINLY FROM SOUTHEAST OHIO INTO WV...WHERE THICKNESS/CORFIDI VECTOR
PATTERNS SUPPORT CONTINUED PROPAGATION OF SHOWERS/STORMS.  MUCH OF
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ARE RELATIVELY DRIER AS WELL.  LATEST HPC
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOLLOWS THIS THINKING...KEEPING THE
THREAT JUST OFF TO THE SOUTH.  WILL THEREFORE HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD
WATCH BUT WILL MAINTAIN HWO MENTION OF POSSIBLE ISOLATED PROBLEMS.
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AS
WELL...BUT ORGANIZATION OF THESE WILL REMAIN LIMITED.

LOSS OF HEATING AS WELL AS SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF FRONT WILL
ALLOW COVERAGE TO WANE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING
ISOLATED SHRA AT BEST AROUND 12Z. LINGERING CLOUDS MAY HINDER MUCH
IN THE WAY OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT.

DID NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES...WHICH WERE IN LINE WITH
LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGGRESSIVELY BUILD HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC
SAT IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROF BEING PUSHED OUT TO SEA. THIS
CONTINUES THE TREND TOWARDS AN OVERALL DRIER FORECAST FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND. AS FOR SAT...ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
RESIDES THROUGH CENTRAL PA DURING THE MORNING AS A WEAK H5 TROF
APPROACHES. EXPECTING THIS TO ACTIVATE SOME CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD REMAIN
LIMITED. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

TRIMMING BACK POPS AND SKY COVER SUN AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
SUBSIDENCE WILL WORK TO KEEP ANY CONVECTION SUN AT BAY. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT WITH DRIER AIR IN
PLACE...DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES RELAX A LITTLE ON SUN MAKING IT A
LITTLE LESS MUGGY.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS HEIGHTS
BUILD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE WELL ADVERTISED UPPER
RIDGE WILL SETTLE INTO THE OH VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK DEFLECTING WEAK
DISTURBANCES WELL TO THE NORTH. BY WEDS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS A
BROAD TROF DIGS INTO THE PLAINS BRINGING A SWEEPING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES THURS. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS
ALONG THE PROJECTED FRONT DAY 7 AS THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND STRUCTURE OF THIS SYSTEM.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PLENTY OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO DEAL WITH FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. IFR WILL PERSIST AT SEVERAL TERMINALS THROUGH 14/15Z BEFORE
LIFTING THROUGH MVFR TO VFR AROUND NOON. THINK NEXT CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX CURRENTLY OVER IN/OH WILL MISS TO OUR SOUTH BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE ZZV GETS GRAZED. EXPECTING MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY TO
BLOOM IN THE DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. PREVAILING LIGHT SHRA
AND VCTS INCLUDED AT MOST SITES. BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE IN ANY
THUNDERSTORM. COVERAGE DECREASES DURING THE EVENING. COULD BE A
NIGHT FOR WIDESPREAD FOG IF CLOUDS CAN BREAK UP A BIT. HAVE HINTED
AT THIS WITH IFR IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FEW RESTRICTIONS STILL POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. OUTSIDE OF OVERNIGHT FOG...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD
MAINLY FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221048
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
648 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND
WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
650 AM UPDATE...MCS LEFTOVERS HAVE ALL BUT DISSIPATED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN BEHIND. WATCHING NEXT
COMPLEX OVER INDIANA/WESTERN OHIO BUT STILL THINK THE BULK OF THIS
WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AS WELL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

CWA IS MISSING THE BULK OF THE IMPACT FROM MCS LEFTOVERS ROLLING
TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO INTO WEST VIRGINIA.
SOME OUTFLOW-GENERATED ACTIVITY HAS GENERATED A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS IN EASTERN OHIO HOWEVER.  HAVE THIS ROLLING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CWA WITH LIKELY POPS FOR A FEW HOURS.  EARLIER LAKE ERIE
STORMS HAVE DEGENERATED INTO A FEW SHOWERS SINKING TOWARDS THE FKL
AREA.

WHILE LIKELY POPS LOOK APPROPRIATE FOR MOST OF THE AREA...STILL
THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL STAYS OFF TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY.
PERSISTENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL START TO GET NUDGED SOUTHWARD WITH
TIME...AS THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST INDUCES MORE NORTHERLY FLOW
OVER OUR AREA.  RICHER MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF 2+ PWAT REMAINS
MAINLY FROM SOUTHEAST OHIO INTO WV...WHERE THICKNESS/CORFIDI VECTOR
PATTERNS SUPPORT CONTINUED PROPAGATION OF SHOWERS/STORMS.  MUCH OF
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ARE RELATIVELY DRIER AS WELL.  LATEST HPC
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOLLOWS THIS THINKING...KEEPING THE
THREAT JUST OFF TO THE SOUTH.  WILL THEREFORE HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD
WATCH BUT WILL MAINTAIN HWO MENTION OF POSSIBLE ISOLATED PROBLEMS.
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AS
WELL...BUT ORGANIZATION OF THESE WILL REMAIN LIMITED.

LOSS OF HEATING AS WELL AS SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF FRONT WILL
ALLOW COVERAGE TO WANE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING
ISOLATED SHRA AT BEST AROUND 12Z. LINGERING CLOUDS MAY HINDER MUCH
IN THE WAY OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT.

DID NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES...WHICH WERE IN LINE WITH
LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGGRESSIVELY BUILD HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC
SAT IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROF BEING PUSHED OUT TO SEA. THIS
CONTINUES THE TREND TOWARDS AN OVERALL DRIER FORECAST FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND. AS FOR SAT...ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
RESIDES THROUGH CENTRAL PA DURING THE MORNING AS A WEAK H5 TROF
APPROACHES. EXPECTING THIS TO ACTIVATE SOME CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD REMAIN
LIMITED. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

TRIMMING BACK POPS AND SKY COVER SUN AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
SUBSIDENCE WILL WORK TO KEEP ANY CONVECTION SUN AT BAY. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT WITH DRIER AIR IN
PLACE...DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES RELAX A LITTLE ON SUN MAKING IT A
LITTLE LESS MUGGY.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS HEIGHTS
BUILD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE WELL ADVERTISED UPPER
RIDGE WILL SETTLE INTO THE OH VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK DEFLECTING WEAK
DISTURBANCES WELL TO THE NORTH. BY WEDS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS A
BROAD TROF DIGS INTO THE PLAINS BRINGING A SWEEPING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES THURS. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS
ALONG THE PROJECTED FRONT DAY 7 AS THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND STRUCTURE OF THIS SYSTEM.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PLENTY OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO DEAL WITH FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. IFR WILL PERSIST AT SEVERAL TERMINALS THROUGH 14/15Z BEFORE
LIFTING THROUGH MVFR TO VFR AROUND NOON. THINK NEXT CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX CURRENTLY OVER IN/OH WILL MISS TO OUR SOUTH BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE ZZV GETS GRAZED. EXPECTING MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY TO
BLOOM IN THE DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. PREVAILING LIGHT SHRA
AND VCTS INCLUDED AT MOST SITES. BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE IN ANY
THUNDERSTORM. COVERAGE DECREASES DURING THE EVENING. COULD BE A
NIGHT FOR WIDESPREAD FOG IF CLOUDS CAN BREAK UP A BIT. HAVE HINTED
AT THIS WITH IFR IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FEW RESTRICTIONS STILL POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. OUTSIDE OF OVERNIGHT FOG...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD
MAINLY FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221040
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
640 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND IS
SLOW TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INITIAL S/W EXITING THE CST ERY MRNG RESULTING IN BULK OF CURRENT
SHRAS/TSTMS ON THE ERN SHORE/ATLC CST WTRS TO SHIFT TO THE E. WILL
CONT W/ SLGT CHC POPS E PORTIONS THIS MRNG AS LINGERING ISOLD PCPN
PSBL IN WAKE OF THE S/W (AS IS PRESENT OVR INTERIOR ERN VA/NE NC.
OTRW...STARTING OUT W/ P/MCLDY CONDS...LIMITED FG BUT THERE WILL
BE POCKETS OF LO CIGS/VSBYS...ESP WHERE RA HAS FALLEN PAST 24 HRS.

M/U NW FLO RMNS OVER THE REGION TDA. A SECOND...PTNTLLY MORE
VIGOROUS S/W FM THE ERN OH DROPS THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
BEGINNING THIS AFTN. THIS SYS XPCD TO PROVIDE BEST CHC OF AND
GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE OF SHRAS/TSTMS ACROSS THE FA DUE TO MORE
FAVORABLE/STRONGER UPPER JET SUPPORT. POCKETS OF MDT TO HVY RA ARE
POSSIBLE GIVEN MODEST MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE UPPER SUPPORT. THE
BECOMES MNLY CLDY ACRS THE FA BY MIDDAY/AFTN HRS. HI TEMPS FM THE
L/M80S NR THE CST...TO THE M/U80S ELSW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CONTD HI PROB FOR SHRAS/TSTMS TNGT INTO SAT MRNG AS S/W DIVES SE
THROUGH AREA THEN OFFSHORE. ADDITIONALLY...SFC WNDS BECOME ENE AND
CLDNS RMNS WIDESPREAD. LOCALLY MDT/HVY RA WILL CONT TO BE
PSBL. WILL HANG ONTO WIDESPREAD CLDNS AND CHC POPS SAT AFTN INTO
SAT NGT AS ONSHORE WNDS CONT. HAVE CONFINED PSBL TSTMS TO AREAS
AWAY FM THE CST (WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED THAT DUE TO LIMITED/NO
INSTABILITY THAT ANY TSTMS WILL BE WELL S AND/OR W OF THE FA).

SFC HI PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND SAT SLOWLY PUSHES S AND INTO THE
REGION BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A REMNANT SFC FRONT S OF THE
AREA. SUN XPCD TO BE P/MSNY...W/ SLGT CHC POPS MNLY CONFINED TO
CSTL SECTIONS IN SE VA/NE NC. WNDS WILL CONT TO BE FM THE NE...A
BIT BREEZY AT THE CST.

HI TEMPS SAT 80 TO 85F (U70S ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES)...W/
U70S TO L80S SUNDAY. LOWS RANGING FM THE U60S TO L70S TNGT...THEN
MNLY IN THE 60S SAT NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF MAINLY NE FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH RIDGES SOUTH WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EMERGES FROM THE BAHAMAS. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A COOLER
MARITIME AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BEGIN TO CENTER THEMSELVES OVER
THE FA. AT THIS POINT SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL AND WILL HELP TO DRY
THE ATMOSPHERE. PRECIP ALONG THE VA/NC COAST CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT DUE TO THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE NORTH AS THE SURFACE LOW
FORMS TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY IN REGARDS TO
THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. AND
DUE TO THE LARGE DEGREE OF CHANGE IN MODEL RUNS...AT THIS POINT...
WILL NOT MODIFY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TOO MUCH.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 MON AND TUES...WARMING SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID 80S
WED AND THUR. SEASONAL LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE LIKELY
AS THE MARITIME AIRMASS WILL LIMIT SIGNIFICANT OVERNIGHT COOLING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 11Z...A FRNTAL BNDRY IS STALLED OVR THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HI
PRES LOCATED OVR THE NE STATES. THE COMBO OF CALM/LGT WINDS ALONG
THE FRNT AND DECENT LO-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS LED TO LO CIGS AND VSBYS
ERLY THIS MORNG IN SOME AREAS. ANY MVFR/IFR SHOULD END BY LATER
THIS MORNG...WITH LGT WINDS AND SOME LO/MID-LEVEL CLOUDS STICKING
AROUND THRU THE DAY. ISO/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY
LATE IN THE DAY OR DURING THE EVENG HOURS...BUT CHANCE IS NOT HI
ENUF TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK...SHRA/TSTM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER FORECASTED BEGINNING SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR DUE TO STRATUS OR FOG
WILL BE A POTENTIAL A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. STATIONARY FRNTAL BNDRY
REMAINS OVR THE AREA THIS MORNG...LEADING TO LGT/VRB WINDS. LO PRES
WILL FORM ALONG THE FRNT TDA...WITH WINDS BCMG N/NE BEHIND THE LO
THIS AFTN. EXPECT MAINLY 2 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS AND 1-2 WAVES OVR
THE BAY. THE FRNT PUSHES S OF THE AREA FRI NGT AS HI PRES NOSES S FM
THE NE STATES. ENERGY STREAMING SE WILL HELP FORM AN AREA OF LO PRES
OFF THE CAROLINA CST. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL ENHANCE THE PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS THE WTRS CAUSING NEAR SCA WIND GUSTS OVR THE BAY
(18-20 KT) AND CSTL WTRS (23-25 KT) ON SAT. DUE TO THE WIND
DIRECTION AND FETCH...EXPECT SEAS TO BLD TO 4-5 FT OVR THE OCEAN
BY SAT EVENG. WITH THIS BEING MAINLY 4TH PERIOD...WILL NOT ISSUE A
SCA ATTM. HI PRES BEGINS TO POSITION ITSELF OVR THE AREA BY MON/TUE
BUT LO PRES EMERGING FROM THE S MAY HELP TO MAINTAIN THE PRES
GRADIENT AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS






000
FXUS61 KLWX 220802
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
402 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS WEEK HAS BEEN FAIRLY CUT/PASTE EACH DAY W/ THE CONDITIONS OF
TEMPS...HUMIDITY...SKY CONDITIONS AND POPS. THIS MOIST AIRMASS WILL
FINALLY UNDERGO A TRANSITION AND BEGIN TO EXIT THE REGION...BUT NOT
UNTIL SAT EVE. TILL THEN...ANOTHER SIMILAR DAY TO AT LEAST THE LAST
TWO IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA. DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO HOVER WITHIN THE
65-70F RANGE WHICH IS PLENTY HUMID AND PREVENTING OUR TEMPS FROM
DROPPING BELOW THE 70F MARK FOR MANY AREAS.

GROUND FOG/LOW STRATUS NOT AS DENSE OR PREVALENT AT THIS TIME
COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT...EVEN W/ CALM WINDS AND ANOTHER DAY OF RAIN
ACCUMULATION STRANDS ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER DEBRIS CARRIED OUT
AHEAD OF DISSIPATED CONVECTION FROM THE NW HAS OVERCOME MUCH OF THE
AREA AND LIKELY LIMITING FOG FORMATION. STILL EXPECTING A BRIEF FEW
HRS OF LOW STRATUS JUST W/IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TOWARD DAWN WHEN THE
TEMPS ARE AT THEIR MIN AND RADIATIONAL EFFECTS FROM THE RISING SUN
BEGIN TO TRANSITION THE NEAR SFC LAYER - BUT ONLY PATCHY DENSE VLY
FOG OR STRAITED BANDS OF LOW STRATUS FOR LOCALIZED AREAS.

OUR AREA IS SURROUNDED TO THE EAST AND WEST BY CONTINUED SHOWER AND
TSTM ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...W/ THE ERN STORMS HEADING OFF THE COAST
AND ANOTHER BATCH APPROACHING THE CNTRL APLCNS. A LOCAL UPPER
IMPULSE LIKELY KICKING-OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF CELLS IN A LINEAR
FASHION FROM ERN OH DOWN INTO NRN WV. HRRR AND MOST OTHER LOCAL WRF
MEMBERS CARRYING THIS ACTIVITY OVER THE MTNS BUT THEN QUICKLY
DISSIPATE IT TO AN INNOCUOUS BATCH OF LIGHT STRATIFORM SHOWERS. LIKE
THE PREV FEW DAYS...TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY - THOUGH HUMID - AND
DODGING SCT SHOWERS/ISLD TSTMS LATER THIS AFTN/EVE. THE EARLIEST
ACTIVITY WILL DICTATE THE LATER ACTIVITY...W/ LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS EXPECTED AND GUSTY WINDS W/ THE STRONGER CELLS. THE 00Z
4/22 KIAD SOUNDING SHOWS GOOD LAPSE RATES IN THE LOW LEVELS AND
MOIST ADIABATIC HEADING UP THRU THE REST OF THE COLUMN...MUCH MORE
MOIST THAN 24HRS PRIOR. THIS PROFILE IS EXPECTED TO CARRY OVER FOR
TODAY`S ACTIVITY BUT END UP MORE STABLE THAN THU`S...AND A LESS
FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE.

WINDS BELOW 10KFT MAY HAVE A BULK AND MEAN SHEAR OF ONLY AROUND 5KT
W/ A MUCH STRONGER UPPER FLOW. A POTENT UPPER JET OF 80-100KT WON`T
HELP LOW-TOP CONVECTION MUCH AND MAY IN-FACT SHEAR OFF TALLER CELLS.
THE LACK OF GOOD MID/LOW LEVEL STEERING FLOW INCREASES THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING IN LOCALIZED AREAS...W/ A REGIME
THAT MAY ALLOW FOR TRAINING CELLS UNDER THE RIGHT CONDITIONS OR
ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BOUNDARY. WILL KEEP THIS THE HIGHLIGHT IN THE
HWO...WHICH WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT OUTSIDE OF A FEW
STRONG/MARGINALLY SVR TSTMS.

SUNSET WILL AGAIN BE THE START OF TSTM DISSIPATION W/ ONLY A HANDFUL
OF SHOWERS CONTINUING TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE LATE NIGHT
HRS. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER NEAR 70F FOR ANOTHER HUMID
OVERNIGHT. BATCHES OF MID CLOUD DECKS WILL ALSO HELP SHELTER THE
AREA AND KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS MODERATED NEAR THE 70F MARK.

TOWARD SUNRISE SAT...THE DYNAMIC TRANSITION WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE
OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. THE UPPER LOW SITTING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER
FLOW AND HELP DIG THE RETROGRADED PORTION OF AN UPPER TROUGH BACK
OVER THE AREA ON SAT. THE LAST ARM OF THIS FEATURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE DAYTIME HRS AND BRING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE THEIR COOLEST IN DAYS BUT STILL
REACHING THE L80S BY MID AFTN. HOWEVER...THE INSTABILITY PROFILE
WILL LOOK MORE LIKE THU`S...W/ SFC-BASED CAPES POTENTIALLY IN THE
1-1.5K RANGE W/ A COOLER UPPER LEVEL TEMP PROFILE FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE. STABILITY MAY COME HOWEVER IN THE FORM OF AN ELY LOW
LEVEL WIND...WHICH COULD LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE INITIATION POTENTIAL
IF THE CAP IS TOO STRONG AND SFC TEMPS DON`T REACH THE APPROPRIATE
LEVELS - ESPEC CLOSER TO THE BAY AND NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIPRES WL BE BLDG DOWN THE COAST SAT NGT-SUN. AS H5 RDG AXIS
CONTS TO SHARPEN...DRIER AIR WL BE ENTRAINED...AND GRDLY ERODE THE
LLVL MARITIME SATURATION. THAT WL HPPN FIRST ALONG I-95 SAT EVNG.
THINK WE/LL NEED TO HOLD ONTO POPS FOR THE MTNS ALL NGT SAT. FIRST
CLRG WL COME TO METRO BALT ELY SUN...AND WL SPREAD THAT TO THE SW
ACRS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWFA THRUT THE DAY. SUNDAY WL BE A NICER
DAY THAN SAT...EVEN FOR THE MTNS WHICH MAY AVG OUT AS PTSUN VS MOSUN
/OR EVEN SUNNY/.

SINCE ITLL BE CLDY...AND DEWPTS WL BE DROPPING THRU THE 60S...DIDNT
LWR MIN-T AS MUCH AS I CUD HV. AM TAKING A RESERVED APPROACH...W/
MIN-T IN THE 60S AS WELL. DID GO ON THE COOLER EDGE OF MAXT GDNC FOR
SUN...BUT BELIEVE PROLONGED ELY FETCH WL KEEP TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO
WATER TEMPS.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIPRES AND H5 RDG AXIS CONT TO BUILD OVER THE MID ATLC THRU THE
XTNDD PD. FLOW WL BE LGT...BUT TEMPS WL GRDLY BE MODERATING BY
MIDWEEK.

A CDFNT DROPPING TWD THE AREA LT WK WL PROVIDE THE ONLY PCPN RISK
DURING THE WORK WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME AREAS OF GROUND/VLY FOG IN TYPICAL PIEDMONT AND COASTAL AREAS
BUT NOT SEEING A DEVELOPING DENSE LOW CLOUD BANK EITHER ATTM. THE
NEXT FEW HRS MAY SEE BATCHES OF LOW-END MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOP BUT
LIKELY NOT IFR OR LOWER...OUTSIDE OF A BRIEF PERIOD. SKIES AFTER
SUNRISE WILL AGAIN WAVER IN/OUT OF PARTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SINCE
WE STILL HAVE A MOIST ATMOS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LATE-DAY TSTMS
POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION. CONDS WILL IMPROVE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MORE DENSE CLOUD COVER
IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY SAT W/ MORE SHOWER/TSTMS EXPECTED ON SAT.

MAY HV SOME LOW CLDS OR PATCHY FOG TO START THE DAY SUN...OTRW VFR
WL PREVAIL THRU TUE.
&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT. A FEW TSTMS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTN/EVE OVER THE WATERS. ELY ONSHORE FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN INTO EARLY SAT...W/ SOME POSSIBLY MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS
ALONG THE WRN SHORES AND MAIN STEM OF THE MD BAY.

ELY/NELY FLOW WL PREVAIL SAT NGT INTO SUN AS HIPRES DRAINS
COOLER/DRIER AIR ACRS WATERS. GDNC SUGGESTS WNDS WL REMAIN AOB 15 KT
DURING THIS TIME. WL GO THAT ROUTE IN THE FCST ATTM...BUT WUDNT BE
SHOCKED IF A FEW HIER GUSTS APPROACHED SCA CRIT IN THE MAIN CHANNEL
OF THE MID BAY. BYD THAT...WNDS WL LESSEN AS HIPRES BLDS.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS ONLY INCHES HIGHER THAN ASTRO NORMALS. SHOULD BE
PROBLEM FREE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FLOW TURNS ONSHORE AGAIN
THIS WEEKEND.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...GMS/HTS
MARINE...GMS/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 220802
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
402 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS WEEK HAS BEEN FAIRLY CUT/PASTE EACH DAY W/ THE CONDITIONS OF
TEMPS...HUMIDITY...SKY CONDITIONS AND POPS. THIS MOIST AIRMASS WILL
FINALLY UNDERGO A TRANSITION AND BEGIN TO EXIT THE REGION...BUT NOT
UNTIL SAT EVE. TILL THEN...ANOTHER SIMILAR DAY TO AT LEAST THE LAST
TWO IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA. DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO HOVER WITHIN THE
65-70F RANGE WHICH IS PLENTY HUMID AND PREVENTING OUR TEMPS FROM
DROPPING BELOW THE 70F MARK FOR MANY AREAS.

GROUND FOG/LOW STRATUS NOT AS DENSE OR PREVALENT AT THIS TIME
COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT...EVEN W/ CALM WINDS AND ANOTHER DAY OF RAIN
ACCUMULATION STRANDS ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER DEBRIS CARRIED OUT
AHEAD OF DISSIPATED CONVECTION FROM THE NW HAS OVERCOME MUCH OF THE
AREA AND LIKELY LIMITING FOG FORMATION. STILL EXPECTING A BRIEF FEW
HRS OF LOW STRATUS JUST W/IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TOWARD DAWN WHEN THE
TEMPS ARE AT THEIR MIN AND RADIATIONAL EFFECTS FROM THE RISING SUN
BEGIN TO TRANSITION THE NEAR SFC LAYER - BUT ONLY PATCHY DENSE VLY
FOG OR STRAITED BANDS OF LOW STRATUS FOR LOCALIZED AREAS.

OUR AREA IS SURROUNDED TO THE EAST AND WEST BY CONTINUED SHOWER AND
TSTM ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...W/ THE ERN STORMS HEADING OFF THE COAST
AND ANOTHER BATCH APPROACHING THE CNTRL APLCNS. A LOCAL UPPER
IMPULSE LIKELY KICKING-OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF CELLS IN A LINEAR
FASHION FROM ERN OH DOWN INTO NRN WV. HRRR AND MOST OTHER LOCAL WRF
MEMBERS CARRYING THIS ACTIVITY OVER THE MTNS BUT THEN QUICKLY
DISSIPATE IT TO AN INNOCUOUS BATCH OF LIGHT STRATIFORM SHOWERS. LIKE
THE PREV FEW DAYS...TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY - THOUGH HUMID - AND
DODGING SCT SHOWERS/ISLD TSTMS LATER THIS AFTN/EVE. THE EARLIEST
ACTIVITY WILL DICTATE THE LATER ACTIVITY...W/ LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS EXPECTED AND GUSTY WINDS W/ THE STRONGER CELLS. THE 00Z
4/22 KIAD SOUNDING SHOWS GOOD LAPSE RATES IN THE LOW LEVELS AND
MOIST ADIABATIC HEADING UP THRU THE REST OF THE COLUMN...MUCH MORE
MOIST THAN 24HRS PRIOR. THIS PROFILE IS EXPECTED TO CARRY OVER FOR
TODAY`S ACTIVITY BUT END UP MORE STABLE THAN THU`S...AND A LESS
FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE.

WINDS BELOW 10KFT MAY HAVE A BULK AND MEAN SHEAR OF ONLY AROUND 5KT
W/ A MUCH STRONGER UPPER FLOW. A POTENT UPPER JET OF 80-100KT WON`T
HELP LOW-TOP CONVECTION MUCH AND MAY IN-FACT SHEAR OFF TALLER CELLS.
THE LACK OF GOOD MID/LOW LEVEL STEERING FLOW INCREASES THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING IN LOCALIZED AREAS...W/ A REGIME
THAT MAY ALLOW FOR TRAINING CELLS UNDER THE RIGHT CONDITIONS OR
ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BOUNDARY. WILL KEEP THIS THE HIGHLIGHT IN THE
HWO...WHICH WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT OUTSIDE OF A FEW
STRONG/MARGINALLY SVR TSTMS.

SUNSET WILL AGAIN BE THE START OF TSTM DISSIPATION W/ ONLY A HANDFUL
OF SHOWERS CONTINUING TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE LATE NIGHT
HRS. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER NEAR 70F FOR ANOTHER HUMID
OVERNIGHT. BATCHES OF MID CLOUD DECKS WILL ALSO HELP SHELTER THE
AREA AND KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS MODERATED NEAR THE 70F MARK.

TOWARD SUNRISE SAT...THE DYNAMIC TRANSITION WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE
OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. THE UPPER LOW SITTING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER
FLOW AND HELP DIG THE RETROGRADED PORTION OF AN UPPER TROUGH BACK
OVER THE AREA ON SAT. THE LAST ARM OF THIS FEATURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE DAYTIME HRS AND BRING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE THEIR COOLEST IN DAYS BUT STILL
REACHING THE L80S BY MID AFTN. HOWEVER...THE INSTABILITY PROFILE
WILL LOOK MORE LIKE THU`S...W/ SFC-BASED CAPES POTENTIALLY IN THE
1-1.5K RANGE W/ A COOLER UPPER LEVEL TEMP PROFILE FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE. STABILITY MAY COME HOWEVER IN THE FORM OF AN ELY LOW
LEVEL WIND...WHICH COULD LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE INITIATION POTENTIAL
IF THE CAP IS TOO STRONG AND SFC TEMPS DON`T REACH THE APPROPRIATE
LEVELS - ESPEC CLOSER TO THE BAY AND NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIPRES WL BE BLDG DOWN THE COAST SAT NGT-SUN. AS H5 RDG AXIS
CONTS TO SHARPEN...DRIER AIR WL BE ENTRAINED...AND GRDLY ERODE THE
LLVL MARITIME SATURATION. THAT WL HPPN FIRST ALONG I-95 SAT EVNG.
THINK WE/LL NEED TO HOLD ONTO POPS FOR THE MTNS ALL NGT SAT. FIRST
CLRG WL COME TO METRO BALT ELY SUN...AND WL SPREAD THAT TO THE SW
ACRS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWFA THRUT THE DAY. SUNDAY WL BE A NICER
DAY THAN SAT...EVEN FOR THE MTNS WHICH MAY AVG OUT AS PTSUN VS MOSUN
/OR EVEN SUNNY/.

SINCE ITLL BE CLDY...AND DEWPTS WL BE DROPPING THRU THE 60S...DIDNT
LWR MIN-T AS MUCH AS I CUD HV. AM TAKING A RESERVED APPROACH...W/
MIN-T IN THE 60S AS WELL. DID GO ON THE COOLER EDGE OF MAXT GDNC FOR
SUN...BUT BELIEVE PROLONGED ELY FETCH WL KEEP TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO
WATER TEMPS.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIPRES AND H5 RDG AXIS CONT TO BUILD OVER THE MID ATLC THRU THE
XTNDD PD. FLOW WL BE LGT...BUT TEMPS WL GRDLY BE MODERATING BY
MIDWEEK.

A CDFNT DROPPING TWD THE AREA LT WK WL PROVIDE THE ONLY PCPN RISK
DURING THE WORK WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME AREAS OF GROUND/VLY FOG IN TYPICAL PIEDMONT AND COASTAL AREAS
BUT NOT SEEING A DEVELOPING DENSE LOW CLOUD BANK EITHER ATTM. THE
NEXT FEW HRS MAY SEE BATCHES OF LOW-END MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOP BUT
LIKELY NOT IFR OR LOWER...OUTSIDE OF A BRIEF PERIOD. SKIES AFTER
SUNRISE WILL AGAIN WAVER IN/OUT OF PARTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SINCE
WE STILL HAVE A MOIST ATMOS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LATE-DAY TSTMS
POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION. CONDS WILL IMPROVE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MORE DENSE CLOUD COVER
IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY SAT W/ MORE SHOWER/TSTMS EXPECTED ON SAT.

MAY HV SOME LOW CLDS OR PATCHY FOG TO START THE DAY SUN...OTRW VFR
WL PREVAIL THRU TUE.
&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT. A FEW TSTMS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTN/EVE OVER THE WATERS. ELY ONSHORE FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN INTO EARLY SAT...W/ SOME POSSIBLY MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS
ALONG THE WRN SHORES AND MAIN STEM OF THE MD BAY.

ELY/NELY FLOW WL PREVAIL SAT NGT INTO SUN AS HIPRES DRAINS
COOLER/DRIER AIR ACRS WATERS. GDNC SUGGESTS WNDS WL REMAIN AOB 15 KT
DURING THIS TIME. WL GO THAT ROUTE IN THE FCST ATTM...BUT WUDNT BE
SHOCKED IF A FEW HIER GUSTS APPROACHED SCA CRIT IN THE MAIN CHANNEL
OF THE MID BAY. BYD THAT...WNDS WL LESSEN AS HIPRES BLDS.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS ONLY INCHES HIGHER THAN ASTRO NORMALS. SHOULD BE
PROBLEM FREE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FLOW TURNS ONSHORE AGAIN
THIS WEEKEND.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...GMS/HTS
MARINE...GMS/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220800
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND IS
SLOW TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INITIAL S/W EXITING THE CST ERY MRNG RESULTING IN BULK OF CURRENT
SHRAS/TSTMS ON THE ERN SHORE/ATLC CST WTRS TO SHIFT TO THE E. WILL
CONT W/ SLGT CHC POPS E PORTIONS THIS MRNG AS LINGERING ISOLD PCPN
PSBL IN WAKE OF THE S/W (AS IS PRESENT OVR INTERIOR ERN VA/NE NC.
OTRW...STARTING OUT W/ P/MCLDY CONDS...LIMITED FG BUT THERE WILL
BE POCKETS OF LO CIGS/VSBYS...ESP WHERE RA HAS FALLEN PAST 24 HRS.

M/U NW FLO RMNS OVER THE REGION TDA. A SECOND...PTNTLLY MORE
VIGOROUS S/W FM THE ERN OH DROPS THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
BEGINNING THIS AFTN. THIS SYS XPCD TO PROVIDE BEST CHC OF AND
GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE OF SHRAS/TSTMS ACROSS THE FA DUE TO MORE
FAVORABLE/STRONGER UPPER JET SUPPORT. POCKETS OF MDT TO HVY RA ARE
POSSIBLE GIVEN MODEST MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE UPPER SUPPORT. THE
BECOMES MNLY CLDY ACRS THE FA BY MIDDAY/AFTN HRS. HI TEMPS FM THE
L/M80S NR THE CST...TO THE M/U80S ELSW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CONTD HI PROB FOR SHRAS/TSTMS TNGT INTO SAT MRNG AS S/W DIVES SE
THROUGH AREA THEN OFFSHORE. ADDITIONALLY...SFC WNDS BECOME ENE AND
CLDNS RMNS WIDESPREAD. LOCALLY MDT/HVY RA WILL CONT TO BE
PSBL. WILL HANG ONTO WIDESPREAD CLDNS AND CHC POPS SAT AFTN INTO
SAT NGT AS ONSHORE WNDS CONT. HAVE CONFINED PSBL TSTMS TO AREAS
AWAY FM THE CST (WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED THAT DUE TO LIMITED/NO
INSTABILITY THAT ANY TSTMS WILL BE WELL S AND/OR W OF THE FA).

SFC HI PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND SAT SLOWLY PUSHES S AND INTO THE
REGION BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A REMNANT SFC FRONT S OF THE
AREA. SUN XPCD TO BE P/MSNY...W/ SLGT CHC POPS MNLY CONFINED TO
CSTL SECTIONS IN SE VA/NE NC. WNDS WILL CONT TO BE FM THE NE...A
BIT BREEZY AT THE CST.

HI TEMPS SAT 80 TO 85F (U70S ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES)...W/
U70S TO L80S SUNDAY. LOWS RANGING FM THE U60S TO L70S TNGT...THEN
MNLY IN THE 60S SAT NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF MAINLY NE FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH RIDGES SOUTH WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EMERGES FROM THE BAHAMAS. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A COOLER
MARITIME AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BEGIN TO CENTER THEMSELVES OVER
THE FA. AT THIS POINT SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL AND WILL HELP TO DRY
THE ATMOSPHERE. PRECIP ALONG THE VA/NC COAST CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT DUE TO THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE NORTH AS THE SURFACE LOW
FORMS TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY IN REGARDS TO
THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. AND
DUE TO THE LARGE DEGREE OF CHANGE IN MODEL RUNS...AT THIS POINT...
WILL NOT MODIFY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TOO MUCH.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 MON AND TUES...WARMING SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID 80S
WED AND THUR. SEASONAL LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE LIKELY
AS THE MARITIME AIRMASS WILL LIMIT SIGNIFICANT OVERNIGHT COOLING.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR WASHINGTON DC THROUGH
EASTERN VIRGINIA (BETWEEN RICHMOND AND HAMPTON ROADS) AND INTO
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. WINDS WERE MAINLY FROM THE W/SW WEST OF
THE BOUNDARY AND FROM THE E/SE TO THE EAST OF IT. THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE COAST OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP JUST OFF
THE COAST TODAY WHICH WOULD HELP SHIFT THE WINDS BRIEFLY TO NW/N
DURING THE DAY.

SBY HAS A T/TD SPREAD OF AROUND 3 DEGREES AND WITH RAIN HAVING
FALLEN LATE THURSDAY...THERE MAY BE SOME IFR/LIFR FOG THERE. AN
OVERCAST HIGH CEILING SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION AT OTHER LOCATIONS
AND PRESENTLY NONE IS FORECAST AT THE OTHER TAF SITES. VCTS ALSO
INCLUDED AT SBY.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY BRING A ROUND OF TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY OR
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER FORECAST BEGINNING SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR DUE TO STRATUS OR FOG
WILL BE A POTENTIAL A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. STATIONARY FRNTAL BNDRY
REMAINS OVR THE AREA THIS MORNG...LEADING TO LGT/VRB WINDS. LO PRES
WILL FORM ALONG THE FRNT TDA...WITH WINDS BCMG N/NE BEHIND THE LO
THIS AFTN. EXPECT MAINLY 2 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS AND 1-2 WAVES OVR
THE BAY. THE FRNT PUSHES S OF THE AREA FRI NGT AS HI PRES NOSES S FM
THE NE STATES. ENERGY STREAMING SE WILL HELP FORM AN AREA OF LO PRES
OFF THE CAROLINA CST. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL ENHANCE THE PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS THE WTRS CAUSING NEAR SCA WIND GUSTS OVR THE BAY
(18-20 KT) AND CSTL WTRS (23-25 KT) ON SAT. DUE TO THE WIND
DIRECTION AND FETCH...EXPECT SEAS TO BLD TO 4-5 FT OVR THE OCEAN
BY SAT EVENG. WITH THIS BEING MAINLY 4TH PERIOD...WILL NOT ISSUE A
SCA ATTM. HI PRES BEGINS TO POSITION ITSELF OVR THE AREA BY MON/TUE
BUT LO PRES EMERGING FROM THE S MAY HELP TO MAINTAIN THE PRES
GRADIENT AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220800
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND IS
SLOW TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INITIAL S/W EXITING THE CST ERY MRNG RESULTING IN BULK OF CURRENT
SHRAS/TSTMS ON THE ERN SHORE/ATLC CST WTRS TO SHIFT TO THE E. WILL
CONT W/ SLGT CHC POPS E PORTIONS THIS MRNG AS LINGERING ISOLD PCPN
PSBL IN WAKE OF THE S/W (AS IS PRESENT OVR INTERIOR ERN VA/NE NC.
OTRW...STARTING OUT W/ P/MCLDY CONDS...LIMITED FG BUT THERE WILL
BE POCKETS OF LO CIGS/VSBYS...ESP WHERE RA HAS FALLEN PAST 24 HRS.

M/U NW FLO RMNS OVER THE REGION TDA. A SECOND...PTNTLLY MORE
VIGOROUS S/W FM THE ERN OH DROPS THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
BEGINNING THIS AFTN. THIS SYS XPCD TO PROVIDE BEST CHC OF AND
GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE OF SHRAS/TSTMS ACROSS THE FA DUE TO MORE
FAVORABLE/STRONGER UPPER JET SUPPORT. POCKETS OF MDT TO HVY RA ARE
POSSIBLE GIVEN MODEST MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE UPPER SUPPORT. THE
BECOMES MNLY CLDY ACRS THE FA BY MIDDAY/AFTN HRS. HI TEMPS FM THE
L/M80S NR THE CST...TO THE M/U80S ELSW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CONTD HI PROB FOR SHRAS/TSTMS TNGT INTO SAT MRNG AS S/W DIVES SE
THROUGH AREA THEN OFFSHORE. ADDITIONALLY...SFC WNDS BECOME ENE AND
CLDNS RMNS WIDESPREAD. LOCALLY MDT/HVY RA WILL CONT TO BE
PSBL. WILL HANG ONTO WIDESPREAD CLDNS AND CHC POPS SAT AFTN INTO
SAT NGT AS ONSHORE WNDS CONT. HAVE CONFINED PSBL TSTMS TO AREAS
AWAY FM THE CST (WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED THAT DUE TO LIMITED/NO
INSTABILITY THAT ANY TSTMS WILL BE WELL S AND/OR W OF THE FA).

SFC HI PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND SAT SLOWLY PUSHES S AND INTO THE
REGION BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A REMNANT SFC FRONT S OF THE
AREA. SUN XPCD TO BE P/MSNY...W/ SLGT CHC POPS MNLY CONFINED TO
CSTL SECTIONS IN SE VA/NE NC. WNDS WILL CONT TO BE FM THE NE...A
BIT BREEZY AT THE CST.

HI TEMPS SAT 80 TO 85F (U70S ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES)...W/
U70S TO L80S SUNDAY. LOWS RANGING FM THE U60S TO L70S TNGT...THEN
MNLY IN THE 60S SAT NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF MAINLY NE FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH RIDGES SOUTH WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EMERGES FROM THE BAHAMAS. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A COOLER
MARITIME AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BEGIN TO CENTER THEMSELVES OVER
THE FA. AT THIS POINT SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL AND WILL HELP TO DRY
THE ATMOSPHERE. PRECIP ALONG THE VA/NC COAST CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT DUE TO THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE NORTH AS THE SURFACE LOW
FORMS TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY IN REGARDS TO
THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. AND
DUE TO THE LARGE DEGREE OF CHANGE IN MODEL RUNS...AT THIS POINT...
WILL NOT MODIFY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TOO MUCH.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 MON AND TUES...WARMING SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID 80S
WED AND THUR. SEASONAL LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE LIKELY
AS THE MARITIME AIRMASS WILL LIMIT SIGNIFICANT OVERNIGHT COOLING.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR WASHINGTON DC THROUGH
EASTERN VIRGINIA (BETWEEN RICHMOND AND HAMPTON ROADS) AND INTO
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. WINDS WERE MAINLY FROM THE W/SW WEST OF
THE BOUNDARY AND FROM THE E/SE TO THE EAST OF IT. THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE COAST OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP JUST OFF
THE COAST TODAY WHICH WOULD HELP SHIFT THE WINDS BRIEFLY TO NW/N
DURING THE DAY.

SBY HAS A T/TD SPREAD OF AROUND 3 DEGREES AND WITH RAIN HAVING
FALLEN LATE THURSDAY...THERE MAY BE SOME IFR/LIFR FOG THERE. AN
OVERCAST HIGH CEILING SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION AT OTHER LOCATIONS
AND PRESENTLY NONE IS FORECAST AT THE OTHER TAF SITES. VCTS ALSO
INCLUDED AT SBY.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY BRING A ROUND OF TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY OR
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER FORECAST BEGINNING SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR DUE TO STRATUS OR FOG
WILL BE A POTENTIAL A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. STATIONARY FRNTAL BNDRY
REMAINS OVR THE AREA THIS MORNG...LEADING TO LGT/VRB WINDS. LO PRES
WILL FORM ALONG THE FRNT TDA...WITH WINDS BCMG N/NE BEHIND THE LO
THIS AFTN. EXPECT MAINLY 2 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS AND 1-2 WAVES OVR
THE BAY. THE FRNT PUSHES S OF THE AREA FRI NGT AS HI PRES NOSES S FM
THE NE STATES. ENERGY STREAMING SE WILL HELP FORM AN AREA OF LO PRES
OFF THE CAROLINA CST. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL ENHANCE THE PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS THE WTRS CAUSING NEAR SCA WIND GUSTS OVR THE BAY
(18-20 KT) AND CSTL WTRS (23-25 KT) ON SAT. DUE TO THE WIND
DIRECTION AND FETCH...EXPECT SEAS TO BLD TO 4-5 FT OVR THE OCEAN
BY SAT EVENG. WITH THIS BEING MAINLY 4TH PERIOD...WILL NOT ISSUE A
SCA ATTM. HI PRES BEGINS TO POSITION ITSELF OVR THE AREA BY MON/TUE
BUT LO PRES EMERGING FROM THE S MAY HELP TO MAINTAIN THE PRES
GRADIENT AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220759
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
359 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND IS
SLOW TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INITIAL S/W EXITING THE CST ERY MRNG RESULTING IN BULK OF CURRENT
SHRAS/TSTMS ON THE ERN SHORE/ATLC CST WTRS TO SHIFT TO THE E. WILL
CONT W/ SLGT CHC POPS E PORTIONS THIS MRNG AS LINGERING ISOLD PCPN
PSBL IN WAKE OF THE S/W (AS IS PRESENT OVR INTERIOR ERN VA/NE NC.
OTRW...STARTING OUT W/ P/MCLDY CONDS...LIMITED FG BUT THERE WILL
BE POCKETS OF LO CIGS/VSBYS...ESP WHERE RA HAS FALLEN PAST 24 HRS.

M/U NW FLO RMNS OVER THE REGION TDA. A SECOND...PTNTLLY MORE
VIGOROUS S/W FM THE ERN OH DROPS THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
BEGINNING THIS AFTN. THIS SYS XPCD TO PROVIDE BEST CHC OF AND
GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE OF SHRAS/TSTMS ACROSS THE FA DUE TO MORE
FAVORABLE/STRONGER UPPER JET SUPPORT. POCKETS OF MDT TO HVY RA ARE
POSSIBLE GIVEN MODEST MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE UPPER SUPPORT. THE
BECOMES MNLY CLDY ACRS THE FA BY MIDDAY/AFTN HRS. HI TEMPS FM THE
L/M80S NR THE CST...TO THE M/U80S ELSW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CONTD HI PROB FOR SHRAS/TSTMS TNGT INTO SAT MRNG AS S/W DIVES SE
THROUGH AREA THEN OFFSHORE. ADDITIONALLY...SFC WNDS BECOME ENE AND
CLDNS RMNS WIDESPREAD. LOCALLY MDT/HVY RA WILL CONT TO BE
PSBL. WILL HANG ONTO WIDESPREAD CLDNS AND CHC POPS SAT AFTN INTO
SAT NGT AS ONSHORE WNDS CONT. HAVE CONFINED PSBL TSTMS TO AREAS
AWAY FM THE CST (WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED THAT DUE TO LIMITED/NO
INSTABILITY THAT ANY TSTMS WILL BE WELL S AND/OR W OF THE FA).

SFC HI PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND SAT SLOWLY PUSHES S AND INTO THE
REGION BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A REMNANT SFC FRONT S OF THE
AREA. SUN XPCD TO BE P/MSNY...W/ SLGT CHC POPS MNLY CONFINED TO
CSTL SECTIONS IN SE VA/NE NC. WNDS WILL CONT TO BE FM THE NE...A
BIT BREEZY AT THE CST.

HI TEMPS SAT 80 TO 85F (U70S ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES)...W/
U70S TO L80S SUNDAY. LOWS RANGING FM THE U60S TO L70S TNGT...THEN
MNLY IN THE 60S SAT NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF MAINLY NE FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH RIDGES SOUTH WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EMERGES FROM THE BAHAMAS. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A COOLER
MARITIME AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BEGIN TO CENTER THEMSELVES OVER
THE FA. AT THIS POINT SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL AND WILL HELP TO DRY
THE ATMOSPHERE. PRECIP ALONG THE VA/NC COAST CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT DUE TO THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE NORTH AS THE SURFACE LOW
FORMS TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY IN REGARDS TO
THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. AND
DUE TO THE LARGE DEGREE OF CHANGE IN MODEL RUNS...AT THIS POINT...
WILL NOT MODIFY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TOO MUCH.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 MON AND TUES...WARMING SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID 80S
WED AND THUR. SEASONAL LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE LIKELY
AS THE MARITIME AIRMASS WILL LIMIT SIGNIFICANT OVERNIGHT COOLING.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR WASHINGTON DC THROUGH
EASTERN VIRGINIA (BETWEEN RICHMOND AND HAMPTON ROADS) AND INTO
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. WINDS WERE MAINLY FROM THE W/SW WEST OF
THE BOUNDARY AND FROM THE E/SE TO THE EAST OF IT. THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE COAST OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP JUST OFF
THE COAST TODAY WHICH WOULD HELP SHIFT THE WINDS BRIEFLY TO NW/N
DURING THE DAY.

SBY HAS A T/TD SPREAD OF AROUND 3 DEGREES AND WITH RAIN HAVING
FALLEN LATE THURSDAY...THERE MAY BE SOME IFR/LIFR FOG THERE. AN
OVERCAST HIGH CEILING SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION AT OTHER LOCATIONS
AND PRESENTLY NONE IS FORECAST AT THE OTHER TAF SITES. VCTS ALSO
INCLUDED AT SBY.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY BRING A ROUND OF TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY OR
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER FORECAST BEGINNING SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR DUE TO STRATUS OR FOG
WILL BE A POTENTIAL A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. A STATIONARY FRNT WILL
REMAIN JUST INLAND TDA OVR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL LEAD
TO LGT WINDS OVR ALL WTRS (AOB 10 KT) OUT OF THE S/SE. EXPECT MAINLY
2 FT SEAS (3 FT THIS MORNG OUT 20NM). THE FRNT STALLS OVR THE WTRS
TNGT AS A WAVE OF LO PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRNT...VEERING WINDS
BEHIND THE LO TO AVG OUT OF THE N ON FRI. HI PRES OVR THE NE STATES
RIDGES SWD OVR THE WTRS FRI NGT INTO SAT AS LO PRES PUSHES OFF THE
NC COAST. A STRENGTHENING PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
NELY WINDS OVER THE CSTAL WTRS LATE FRI NGT THRU SAT. HI PRES
REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE NE CST THRU ERLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. ATTM...SPEEDS APPEAR TO REMAIN
SUB-SCA...BUT SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BLD TO 4-5 FT LATE SAT THRU
MON.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS



























000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220759
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
359 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND IS
SLOW TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INITIAL S/W EXITING THE CST ERY MRNG RESULTING IN BULK OF CURRENT
SHRAS/TSTMS ON THE ERN SHORE/ATLC CST WTRS TO SHIFT TO THE E. WILL
CONT W/ SLGT CHC POPS E PORTIONS THIS MRNG AS LINGERING ISOLD PCPN
PSBL IN WAKE OF THE S/W (AS IS PRESENT OVR INTERIOR ERN VA/NE NC.
OTRW...STARTING OUT W/ P/MCLDY CONDS...LIMITED FG BUT THERE WILL
BE POCKETS OF LO CIGS/VSBYS...ESP WHERE RA HAS FALLEN PAST 24 HRS.

M/U NW FLO RMNS OVER THE REGION TDA. A SECOND...PTNTLLY MORE
VIGOROUS S/W FM THE ERN OH DROPS THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
BEGINNING THIS AFTN. THIS SYS XPCD TO PROVIDE BEST CHC OF AND
GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE OF SHRAS/TSTMS ACROSS THE FA DUE TO MORE
FAVORABLE/STRONGER UPPER JET SUPPORT. POCKETS OF MDT TO HVY RA ARE
POSSIBLE GIVEN MODEST MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE UPPER SUPPORT. THE
BECOMES MNLY CLDY ACRS THE FA BY MIDDAY/AFTN HRS. HI TEMPS FM THE
L/M80S NR THE CST...TO THE M/U80S ELSW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CONTD HI PROB FOR SHRAS/TSTMS TNGT INTO SAT MRNG AS S/W DIVES SE
THROUGH AREA THEN OFFSHORE. ADDITIONALLY...SFC WNDS BECOME ENE AND
CLDNS RMNS WIDESPREAD. LOCALLY MDT/HVY RA WILL CONT TO BE
PSBL. WILL HANG ONTO WIDESPREAD CLDNS AND CHC POPS SAT AFTN INTO
SAT NGT AS ONSHORE WNDS CONT. HAVE CONFINED PSBL TSTMS TO AREAS
AWAY FM THE CST (WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED THAT DUE TO LIMITED/NO
INSTABILITY THAT ANY TSTMS WILL BE WELL S AND/OR W OF THE FA).

SFC HI PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND SAT SLOWLY PUSHES S AND INTO THE
REGION BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A REMNANT SFC FRONT S OF THE
AREA. SUN XPCD TO BE P/MSNY...W/ SLGT CHC POPS MNLY CONFINED TO
CSTL SECTIONS IN SE VA/NE NC. WNDS WILL CONT TO BE FM THE NE...A
BIT BREEZY AT THE CST.

HI TEMPS SAT 80 TO 85F (U70S ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES)...W/
U70S TO L80S SUNDAY. LOWS RANGING FM THE U60S TO L70S TNGT...THEN
MNLY IN THE 60S SAT NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF MAINLY NE FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH RIDGES SOUTH WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EMERGES FROM THE BAHAMAS. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A COOLER
MARITIME AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BEGIN TO CENTER THEMSELVES OVER
THE FA. AT THIS POINT SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL AND WILL HELP TO DRY
THE ATMOSPHERE. PRECIP ALONG THE VA/NC COAST CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT DUE TO THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE NORTH AS THE SURFACE LOW
FORMS TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY IN REGARDS TO
THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. AND
DUE TO THE LARGE DEGREE OF CHANGE IN MODEL RUNS...AT THIS POINT...
WILL NOT MODIFY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TOO MUCH.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 MON AND TUES...WARMING SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID 80S
WED AND THUR. SEASONAL LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE LIKELY
AS THE MARITIME AIRMASS WILL LIMIT SIGNIFICANT OVERNIGHT COOLING.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR WASHINGTON DC THROUGH
EASTERN VIRGINIA (BETWEEN RICHMOND AND HAMPTON ROADS) AND INTO
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. WINDS WERE MAINLY FROM THE W/SW WEST OF
THE BOUNDARY AND FROM THE E/SE TO THE EAST OF IT. THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE COAST OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP JUST OFF
THE COAST TODAY WHICH WOULD HELP SHIFT THE WINDS BRIEFLY TO NW/N
DURING THE DAY.

SBY HAS A T/TD SPREAD OF AROUND 3 DEGREES AND WITH RAIN HAVING
FALLEN LATE THURSDAY...THERE MAY BE SOME IFR/LIFR FOG THERE. AN
OVERCAST HIGH CEILING SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION AT OTHER LOCATIONS
AND PRESENTLY NONE IS FORECAST AT THE OTHER TAF SITES. VCTS ALSO
INCLUDED AT SBY.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY BRING A ROUND OF TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY OR
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER FORECAST BEGINNING SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR DUE TO STRATUS OR FOG
WILL BE A POTENTIAL A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. A STATIONARY FRNT WILL
REMAIN JUST INLAND TDA OVR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL LEAD
TO LGT WINDS OVR ALL WTRS (AOB 10 KT) OUT OF THE S/SE. EXPECT MAINLY
2 FT SEAS (3 FT THIS MORNG OUT 20NM). THE FRNT STALLS OVR THE WTRS
TNGT AS A WAVE OF LO PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRNT...VEERING WINDS
BEHIND THE LO TO AVG OUT OF THE N ON FRI. HI PRES OVR THE NE STATES
RIDGES SWD OVR THE WTRS FRI NGT INTO SAT AS LO PRES PUSHES OFF THE
NC COAST. A STRENGTHENING PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
NELY WINDS OVER THE CSTAL WTRS LATE FRI NGT THRU SAT. HI PRES
REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE NE CST THRU ERLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. ATTM...SPEEDS APPEAR TO REMAIN
SUB-SCA...BUT SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BLD TO 4-5 FT LATE SAT THRU
MON.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS



























000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220759
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
359 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND IS
SLOW TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INITIAL S/W EXITING THE CST ERY MRNG RESULTING IN BULK OF CURRENT
SHRAS/TSTMS ON THE ERN SHORE/ATLC CST WTRS TO SHIFT TO THE E. WILL
CONT W/ SLGT CHC POPS E PORTIONS THIS MRNG AS LINGERING ISOLD PCPN
PSBL IN WAKE OF THE S/W (AS IS PRESENT OVR INTERIOR ERN VA/NE NC.
OTRW...STARTING OUT W/ P/MCLDY CONDS...LIMITED FG BUT THERE WILL
BE POCKETS OF LO CIGS/VSBYS...ESP WHERE RA HAS FALLEN PAST 24 HRS.

M/U NW FLO RMNS OVER THE REGION TDA. A SECOND...PTNTLLY MORE
VIGOROUS S/W FM THE ERN OH DROPS THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
BEGINNING THIS AFTN. THIS SYS XPCD TO PROVIDE BEST CHC OF AND
GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE OF SHRAS/TSTMS ACROSS THE FA DUE TO MORE
FAVORABLE/STRONGER UPPER JET SUPPORT. POCKETS OF MDT TO HVY RA ARE
POSSIBLE GIVEN MODEST MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE UPPER SUPPORT. THE
BECOMES MNLY CLDY ACRS THE FA BY MIDDAY/AFTN HRS. HI TEMPS FM THE
L/M80S NR THE CST...TO THE M/U80S ELSW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CONTD HI PROB FOR SHRAS/TSTMS TNGT INTO SAT MRNG AS S/W DIVES SE
THROUGH AREA THEN OFFSHORE. ADDITIONALLY...SFC WNDS BECOME ENE AND
CLDNS RMNS WIDESPREAD. LOCALLY MDT/HVY RA WILL CONT TO BE
PSBL. WILL HANG ONTO WIDESPREAD CLDNS AND CHC POPS SAT AFTN INTO
SAT NGT AS ONSHORE WNDS CONT. HAVE CONFINED PSBL TSTMS TO AREAS
AWAY FM THE CST (WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED THAT DUE TO LIMITED/NO
INSTABILITY THAT ANY TSTMS WILL BE WELL S AND/OR W OF THE FA).

SFC HI PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND SAT SLOWLY PUSHES S AND INTO THE
REGION BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A REMNANT SFC FRONT S OF THE
AREA. SUN XPCD TO BE P/MSNY...W/ SLGT CHC POPS MNLY CONFINED TO
CSTL SECTIONS IN SE VA/NE NC. WNDS WILL CONT TO BE FM THE NE...A
BIT BREEZY AT THE CST.

HI TEMPS SAT 80 TO 85F (U70S ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES)...W/
U70S TO L80S SUNDAY. LOWS RANGING FM THE U60S TO L70S TNGT...THEN
MNLY IN THE 60S SAT NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF MAINLY NE FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH RIDGES SOUTH WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EMERGES FROM THE BAHAMAS. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A COOLER
MARITIME AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BEGIN TO CENTER THEMSELVES OVER
THE FA. AT THIS POINT SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL AND WILL HELP TO DRY
THE ATMOSPHERE. PRECIP ALONG THE VA/NC COAST CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT DUE TO THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE NORTH AS THE SURFACE LOW
FORMS TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY IN REGARDS TO
THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. AND
DUE TO THE LARGE DEGREE OF CHANGE IN MODEL RUNS...AT THIS POINT...
WILL NOT MODIFY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TOO MUCH.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 MON AND TUES...WARMING SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID 80S
WED AND THUR. SEASONAL LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE LIKELY
AS THE MARITIME AIRMASS WILL LIMIT SIGNIFICANT OVERNIGHT COOLING.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR WASHINGTON DC THROUGH
EASTERN VIRGINIA (BETWEEN RICHMOND AND HAMPTON ROADS) AND INTO
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. WINDS WERE MAINLY FROM THE W/SW WEST OF
THE BOUNDARY AND FROM THE E/SE TO THE EAST OF IT. THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE COAST OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP JUST OFF
THE COAST TODAY WHICH WOULD HELP SHIFT THE WINDS BRIEFLY TO NW/N
DURING THE DAY.

SBY HAS A T/TD SPREAD OF AROUND 3 DEGREES AND WITH RAIN HAVING
FALLEN LATE THURSDAY...THERE MAY BE SOME IFR/LIFR FOG THERE. AN
OVERCAST HIGH CEILING SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION AT OTHER LOCATIONS
AND PRESENTLY NONE IS FORECAST AT THE OTHER TAF SITES. VCTS ALSO
INCLUDED AT SBY.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY BRING A ROUND OF TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY OR
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER FORECAST BEGINNING SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR DUE TO STRATUS OR FOG
WILL BE A POTENTIAL A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. A STATIONARY FRNT WILL
REMAIN JUST INLAND TDA OVR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL LEAD
TO LGT WINDS OVR ALL WTRS (AOB 10 KT) OUT OF THE S/SE. EXPECT MAINLY
2 FT SEAS (3 FT THIS MORNG OUT 20NM). THE FRNT STALLS OVR THE WTRS
TNGT AS A WAVE OF LO PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRNT...VEERING WINDS
BEHIND THE LO TO AVG OUT OF THE N ON FRI. HI PRES OVR THE NE STATES
RIDGES SWD OVR THE WTRS FRI NGT INTO SAT AS LO PRES PUSHES OFF THE
NC COAST. A STRENGTHENING PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
NELY WINDS OVER THE CSTAL WTRS LATE FRI NGT THRU SAT. HI PRES
REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE NE CST THRU ERLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. ATTM...SPEEDS APPEAR TO REMAIN
SUB-SCA...BUT SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BLD TO 4-5 FT LATE SAT THRU
MON.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS



























000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220759
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
359 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND IS
SLOW TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INITIAL S/W EXITING THE CST ERY MRNG RESULTING IN BULK OF CURRENT
SHRAS/TSTMS ON THE ERN SHORE/ATLC CST WTRS TO SHIFT TO THE E. WILL
CONT W/ SLGT CHC POPS E PORTIONS THIS MRNG AS LINGERING ISOLD PCPN
PSBL IN WAKE OF THE S/W (AS IS PRESENT OVR INTERIOR ERN VA/NE NC.
OTRW...STARTING OUT W/ P/MCLDY CONDS...LIMITED FG BUT THERE WILL
BE POCKETS OF LO CIGS/VSBYS...ESP WHERE RA HAS FALLEN PAST 24 HRS.

M/U NW FLO RMNS OVER THE REGION TDA. A SECOND...PTNTLLY MORE
VIGOROUS S/W FM THE ERN OH DROPS THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
BEGINNING THIS AFTN. THIS SYS XPCD TO PROVIDE BEST CHC OF AND
GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE OF SHRAS/TSTMS ACROSS THE FA DUE TO MORE
FAVORABLE/STRONGER UPPER JET SUPPORT. POCKETS OF MDT TO HVY RA ARE
POSSIBLE GIVEN MODEST MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE UPPER SUPPORT. THE
BECOMES MNLY CLDY ACRS THE FA BY MIDDAY/AFTN HRS. HI TEMPS FM THE
L/M80S NR THE CST...TO THE M/U80S ELSW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CONTD HI PROB FOR SHRAS/TSTMS TNGT INTO SAT MRNG AS S/W DIVES SE
THROUGH AREA THEN OFFSHORE. ADDITIONALLY...SFC WNDS BECOME ENE AND
CLDNS RMNS WIDESPREAD. LOCALLY MDT/HVY RA WILL CONT TO BE
PSBL. WILL HANG ONTO WIDESPREAD CLDNS AND CHC POPS SAT AFTN INTO
SAT NGT AS ONSHORE WNDS CONT. HAVE CONFINED PSBL TSTMS TO AREAS
AWAY FM THE CST (WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED THAT DUE TO LIMITED/NO
INSTABILITY THAT ANY TSTMS WILL BE WELL S AND/OR W OF THE FA).

SFC HI PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND SAT SLOWLY PUSHES S AND INTO THE
REGION BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A REMNANT SFC FRONT S OF THE
AREA. SUN XPCD TO BE P/MSNY...W/ SLGT CHC POPS MNLY CONFINED TO
CSTL SECTIONS IN SE VA/NE NC. WNDS WILL CONT TO BE FM THE NE...A
BIT BREEZY AT THE CST.

HI TEMPS SAT 80 TO 85F (U70S ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES)...W/
U70S TO L80S SUNDAY. LOWS RANGING FM THE U60S TO L70S TNGT...THEN
MNLY IN THE 60S SAT NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF MAINLY NE FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH RIDGES SOUTH WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EMERGES FROM THE BAHAMAS. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A COOLER
MARITIME AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BEGIN TO CENTER THEMSELVES OVER
THE FA. AT THIS POINT SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL AND WILL HELP TO DRY
THE ATMOSPHERE. PRECIP ALONG THE VA/NC COAST CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT DUE TO THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE NORTH AS THE SURFACE LOW
FORMS TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY IN REGARDS TO
THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. AND
DUE TO THE LARGE DEGREE OF CHANGE IN MODEL RUNS...AT THIS POINT...
WILL NOT MODIFY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TOO MUCH.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 MON AND TUES...WARMING SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID 80S
WED AND THUR. SEASONAL LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE LIKELY
AS THE MARITIME AIRMASS WILL LIMIT SIGNIFICANT OVERNIGHT COOLING.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR WASHINGTON DC THROUGH
EASTERN VIRGINIA (BETWEEN RICHMOND AND HAMPTON ROADS) AND INTO
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. WINDS WERE MAINLY FROM THE W/SW WEST OF
THE BOUNDARY AND FROM THE E/SE TO THE EAST OF IT. THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE COAST OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP JUST OFF
THE COAST TODAY WHICH WOULD HELP SHIFT THE WINDS BRIEFLY TO NW/N
DURING THE DAY.

SBY HAS A T/TD SPREAD OF AROUND 3 DEGREES AND WITH RAIN HAVING
FALLEN LATE THURSDAY...THERE MAY BE SOME IFR/LIFR FOG THERE. AN
OVERCAST HIGH CEILING SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION AT OTHER LOCATIONS
AND PRESENTLY NONE IS FORECAST AT THE OTHER TAF SITES. VCTS ALSO
INCLUDED AT SBY.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY BRING A ROUND OF TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY OR
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER FORECAST BEGINNING SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR DUE TO STRATUS OR FOG
WILL BE A POTENTIAL A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. A STATIONARY FRNT WILL
REMAIN JUST INLAND TDA OVR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL LEAD
TO LGT WINDS OVR ALL WTRS (AOB 10 KT) OUT OF THE S/SE. EXPECT MAINLY
2 FT SEAS (3 FT THIS MORNG OUT 20NM). THE FRNT STALLS OVR THE WTRS
TNGT AS A WAVE OF LO PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRNT...VEERING WINDS
BEHIND THE LO TO AVG OUT OF THE N ON FRI. HI PRES OVR THE NE STATES
RIDGES SWD OVR THE WTRS FRI NGT INTO SAT AS LO PRES PUSHES OFF THE
NC COAST. A STRENGTHENING PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
NELY WINDS OVER THE CSTAL WTRS LATE FRI NGT THRU SAT. HI PRES
REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE NE CST THRU ERLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. ATTM...SPEEDS APPEAR TO REMAIN
SUB-SCA...BUT SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BLD TO 4-5 FT LATE SAT THRU
MON.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS



























000
FXUS61 KPHI 220756
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
356 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA NOW, WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH
APPROACHING THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS ARE PUSHING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THEY HAVE BEEN REDEVELOPING
ALONG A THETA-E AND INSTABILITY DIFFERENTIAL LINE AS THE SHORT
WAVE/VORT MAX ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK, SO THIS
SHOWER/THUNDER SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK, BUT
BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY THAT TIME. ONCE THIS ACTIVITY
WANES, WE SHOULD GET A BREAK IN THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR MUCH
OF THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WE EXPECT MORE
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AS ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE MOVES INTO THE AREA IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOR THE
WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA, WHILE THE COAST MAY REMAIN DRY LATER
TODAY. THERE REMAINS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY, SO THERE WILL REMAIN THE
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. AS WITH
YESTERDAY, WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG WIND FIELD ALOFT AND MINIMAL
SHEAR, WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER. IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS DO
DEVELOP, THEY COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS, IN ADDITION TO HEAVY
RAIN AS PW VALUES REMAIN 1.5-1.75 INCHES. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SMALL HAIL IF THERE ARE ANY THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

FOR HIGHS, USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND ECMWF 2M TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THERE WILL REMAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INTO TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
EARLY IN THE EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. AGAIN, THE BEST FAVORED AREAS ARE THE WESTERN HALF/TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA IN THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE AREA.

ALMOST SEEMS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD; THERE REMAINS THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING
AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY MAX PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. ONCE
THIS IMPULSE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING, SHOWER CHANCES
DROP OFF OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST.

CONTINUED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND ECMWF 2M TEMPS FOR
HIGHS AND LOWS TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN
OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. WEAK ON SHORE FLOW THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY WILL HELP TO KEEP HIGHS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL EACH DAY. BY WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED
ENOUGH OFF SHORE TO LEAVE THE REGION UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW
BRINGING TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN NEAR NORMAL. BUT IT DOESN`T LOOK
LIKE THE WARM WEATHER WILL BE AROUND FOR VERY LONG.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT SLIGHTLY AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS, WITH IT NOW
FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY. THUS...THURSDAY
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE NEAR NORMAL. THE FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT
PROMISING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION, AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MVFR AND EVEN IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES
THIS MORNING AS AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. THE DISTURBANCE
THAT CREATED THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING, AND
SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO VFR AS DAYTIME
MIXING TAKES PLACE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE TODAY, SO
THEY WERE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND TIMING WAS LOW, SO
THEY WERE KEPT OUT FOR NOW. WINDS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE
EAST 5-10 KNOTS.

WE EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE TAF SITES AS MOISTURE POOLS AT THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION.
IN FACT, CIGS MAY END UP LOWERING TO IFR FOR MANY AREAS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY...BECOMING VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH 4 FEET AND WINDS MAY
BEGIN TO GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS EARLY FLOW INCREASES AS
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS AS EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTH.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON






000
FXUS61 KPHI 220756
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
356 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA NOW, WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH
APPROACHING THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS ARE PUSHING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THEY HAVE BEEN REDEVELOPING
ALONG A THETA-E AND INSTABILITY DIFFERENTIAL LINE AS THE SHORT
WAVE/VORT MAX ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK, SO THIS
SHOWER/THUNDER SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK, BUT
BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY THAT TIME. ONCE THIS ACTIVITY
WANES, WE SHOULD GET A BREAK IN THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR MUCH
OF THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WE EXPECT MORE
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AS ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE MOVES INTO THE AREA IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOR THE
WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA, WHILE THE COAST MAY REMAIN DRY LATER
TODAY. THERE REMAINS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY, SO THERE WILL REMAIN THE
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. AS WITH
YESTERDAY, WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG WIND FIELD ALOFT AND MINIMAL
SHEAR, WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER. IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS DO
DEVELOP, THEY COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS, IN ADDITION TO HEAVY
RAIN AS PW VALUES REMAIN 1.5-1.75 INCHES. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SMALL HAIL IF THERE ARE ANY THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

FOR HIGHS, USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND ECMWF 2M TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THERE WILL REMAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INTO TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
EARLY IN THE EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. AGAIN, THE BEST FAVORED AREAS ARE THE WESTERN HALF/TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA IN THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE AREA.

ALMOST SEEMS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD; THERE REMAINS THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING
AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY MAX PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. ONCE
THIS IMPULSE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING, SHOWER CHANCES
DROP OFF OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST.

CONTINUED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND ECMWF 2M TEMPS FOR
HIGHS AND LOWS TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN
OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. WEAK ON SHORE FLOW THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY WILL HELP TO KEEP HIGHS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL EACH DAY. BY WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED
ENOUGH OFF SHORE TO LEAVE THE REGION UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW
BRINGING TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN NEAR NORMAL. BUT IT DOESN`T LOOK
LIKE THE WARM WEATHER WILL BE AROUND FOR VERY LONG.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT SLIGHTLY AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS, WITH IT NOW
FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY. THUS...THURSDAY
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE NEAR NORMAL. THE FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT
PROMISING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION, AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MVFR AND EVEN IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES
THIS MORNING AS AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. THE DISTURBANCE
THAT CREATED THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING, AND
SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO VFR AS DAYTIME
MIXING TAKES PLACE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE TODAY, SO
THEY WERE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND TIMING WAS LOW, SO
THEY WERE KEPT OUT FOR NOW. WINDS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE
EAST 5-10 KNOTS.

WE EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE TAF SITES AS MOISTURE POOLS AT THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION.
IN FACT, CIGS MAY END UP LOWERING TO IFR FOR MANY AREAS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY...BECOMING VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH 4 FEET AND WINDS MAY
BEGIN TO GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS EARLY FLOW INCREASES AS
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS AS EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTH.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON






000
FXUS61 KPHI 220756
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
356 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA NOW, WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH
APPROACHING THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS ARE PUSHING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THEY HAVE BEEN REDEVELOPING
ALONG A THETA-E AND INSTABILITY DIFFERENTIAL LINE AS THE SHORT
WAVE/VORT MAX ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK, SO THIS
SHOWER/THUNDER SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK, BUT
BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY THAT TIME. ONCE THIS ACTIVITY
WANES, WE SHOULD GET A BREAK IN THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR MUCH
OF THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WE EXPECT MORE
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AS ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE MOVES INTO THE AREA IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOR THE
WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA, WHILE THE COAST MAY REMAIN DRY LATER
TODAY. THERE REMAINS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY, SO THERE WILL REMAIN THE
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. AS WITH
YESTERDAY, WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG WIND FIELD ALOFT AND MINIMAL
SHEAR, WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER. IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS DO
DEVELOP, THEY COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS, IN ADDITION TO HEAVY
RAIN AS PW VALUES REMAIN 1.5-1.75 INCHES. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SMALL HAIL IF THERE ARE ANY THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

FOR HIGHS, USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND ECMWF 2M TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THERE WILL REMAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INTO TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
EARLY IN THE EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. AGAIN, THE BEST FAVORED AREAS ARE THE WESTERN HALF/TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA IN THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE AREA.

ALMOST SEEMS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD; THERE REMAINS THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING
AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY MAX PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. ONCE
THIS IMPULSE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING, SHOWER CHANCES
DROP OFF OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST.

CONTINUED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND ECMWF 2M TEMPS FOR
HIGHS AND LOWS TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN
OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. WEAK ON SHORE FLOW THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY WILL HELP TO KEEP HIGHS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL EACH DAY. BY WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED
ENOUGH OFF SHORE TO LEAVE THE REGION UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW
BRINGING TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN NEAR NORMAL. BUT IT DOESN`T LOOK
LIKE THE WARM WEATHER WILL BE AROUND FOR VERY LONG.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT SLIGHTLY AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS, WITH IT NOW
FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY. THUS...THURSDAY
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE NEAR NORMAL. THE FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT
PROMISING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION, AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MVFR AND EVEN IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES
THIS MORNING AS AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. THE DISTURBANCE
THAT CREATED THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING, AND
SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO VFR AS DAYTIME
MIXING TAKES PLACE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE TODAY, SO
THEY WERE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND TIMING WAS LOW, SO
THEY WERE KEPT OUT FOR NOW. WINDS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE
EAST 5-10 KNOTS.

WE EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE TAF SITES AS MOISTURE POOLS AT THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION.
IN FACT, CIGS MAY END UP LOWERING TO IFR FOR MANY AREAS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY...BECOMING VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH 4 FEET AND WINDS MAY
BEGIN TO GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS EARLY FLOW INCREASES AS
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS AS EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTH.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON






000
FXUS61 KPHI 220756
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
356 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA NOW, WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH
APPROACHING THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS ARE PUSHING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THEY HAVE BEEN REDEVELOPING
ALONG A THETA-E AND INSTABILITY DIFFERENTIAL LINE AS THE SHORT
WAVE/VORT MAX ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK, SO THIS
SHOWER/THUNDER SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK, BUT
BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY THAT TIME. ONCE THIS ACTIVITY
WANES, WE SHOULD GET A BREAK IN THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR MUCH
OF THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WE EXPECT MORE
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AS ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE MOVES INTO THE AREA IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOR THE
WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA, WHILE THE COAST MAY REMAIN DRY LATER
TODAY. THERE REMAINS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY, SO THERE WILL REMAIN THE
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. AS WITH
YESTERDAY, WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG WIND FIELD ALOFT AND MINIMAL
SHEAR, WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER. IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS DO
DEVELOP, THEY COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS, IN ADDITION TO HEAVY
RAIN AS PW VALUES REMAIN 1.5-1.75 INCHES. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SMALL HAIL IF THERE ARE ANY THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

FOR HIGHS, USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND ECMWF 2M TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THERE WILL REMAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INTO TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
EARLY IN THE EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. AGAIN, THE BEST FAVORED AREAS ARE THE WESTERN HALF/TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA IN THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE AREA.

ALMOST SEEMS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD; THERE REMAINS THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING
AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY MAX PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. ONCE
THIS IMPULSE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING, SHOWER CHANCES
DROP OFF OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST.

CONTINUED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND ECMWF 2M TEMPS FOR
HIGHS AND LOWS TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN
OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. WEAK ON SHORE FLOW THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY WILL HELP TO KEEP HIGHS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL EACH DAY. BY WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED
ENOUGH OFF SHORE TO LEAVE THE REGION UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW
BRINGING TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN NEAR NORMAL. BUT IT DOESN`T LOOK
LIKE THE WARM WEATHER WILL BE AROUND FOR VERY LONG.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT SLIGHTLY AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS, WITH IT NOW
FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY. THUS...THURSDAY
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE NEAR NORMAL. THE FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT
PROMISING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION, AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MVFR AND EVEN IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES
THIS MORNING AS AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. THE DISTURBANCE
THAT CREATED THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING, AND
SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO VFR AS DAYTIME
MIXING TAKES PLACE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE TODAY, SO
THEY WERE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND TIMING WAS LOW, SO
THEY WERE KEPT OUT FOR NOW. WINDS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE
EAST 5-10 KNOTS.

WE EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE TAF SITES AS MOISTURE POOLS AT THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION.
IN FACT, CIGS MAY END UP LOWERING TO IFR FOR MANY AREAS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY...BECOMING VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH 4 FEET AND WINDS MAY
BEGIN TO GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS EARLY FLOW INCREASES AS
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS AS EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTH.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220755
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
355 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND
WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CWA IS MISSING THE BULK OF THE IMPACT FROM MCS LEFTOVERS ROLLING
TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO INTO WEST VIRGINIA.
SOME OUTFLOW-GENERATED ACTIVITY HAS GENERATED A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS IN EASTERN OHIO HOWEVER.  HAVE THIS ROLLING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CWA WITH LIKELY POPS FOR A FEW HOURS.  EARLIER LAKE ERIE
STORMS HAVE DEGENERATED INTO A FEW SHOWERS SINKING TOWARDS THE FKL
AREA.

WHILE LIKELY POPS LOOK APPROPRIATE FOR MOST OF THE AREA...STILL
THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL STAYS OFF TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY.
PERSISTENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL START TO GET NUDGED SOUTHWARD WITH
TIME...AS THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST INDUCES MORE NORTHERLY FLOW
OVER OUR AREA.  RICHER MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF 2+ PWAT REMAINS
MAINLY FROM SOUTHEAST OHIO INTO WV...WHERE THICKNESS/CORFIDI VECTOR
PATTERNS SUPPORT CONTINUED PROPAGATION OF SHOWERS/STORMS.  MUCH OF
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ARE RELATIVELY DRIER AS WELL.  LATEST HPC
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOLLOWS THIS THINKING...KEEPING THE
THREAT JUST OFF TO THE SOUTH.  WILL THEREFORE HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD
WATCH BUT WILL MAINTAIN HWO MENTION OF POSSIBLE ISOLATED PROBLEMS.
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AS
WELL...BUT ORGANIZATION OF THESE WILL REMAIN LIMITED.

LOSS OF HEATING AS WELL AS SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF FRONT WILL
ALLOW COVERAGE TO WANE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING
ISOLATED SHRA AT BEST AROUND 12Z. LINGERING CLOUDS MAY HINDER MUCH
IN THE WAY OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT.

DID NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES...WHICH WERE IN LINE WITH
LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGGRESSIVELY BUILD HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC
SAT IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROF BEING PUSHED OUT TO SEA. THIS
CONTINUES THE TREND TOWARDS AN OVERALL DRIER FORECAST FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND. AS FOR SAT...ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
RESIDES THROUGH CENTRAL PA DURING THE MORNING AS A WEAK H5 TROF
APPROACHES. EXPECTING THIS TO ACTIVATE SOME CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD REMAIN
LIMITED. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

TRIMMING BACK POPS AND SKY COVER SUN AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
SUBSIDENCE WILL WORK TO KEEP ANY CONVECTION SUN AT BAY. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT WITH DRIER AIR IN
PLACE...DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES RELAX A LITTLE ON SUN MAKING IT A
LITTLE LESS MUGGY.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS HEIGHTS
BUILD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE WELL ADVERTISED UPPER
RIDGE WILL SETTLE INTO THE OH VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK DEFLECTING WEAK
DISTURBANCES WELL TO THE NORTH. BY WEDS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS A
BROAD TROF DIGS INTO THE PLAINS BRINGING A SWEEPING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES THURS. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS
ALONG THE PROJECTED FRONT DAY 7 AS THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND STRUCTURE OF THIS SYSTEM.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL A TRICKY FORECAST TO FIGURE. CERTAINLY ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR LOW MVFR/IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP BUT FORMATION IS
QUESTIONABLE. ENDED UP GOING WITH IFR AT A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS.
MCS MAY CLIP ZZV OVER THE NEXT HOUR. -SHRA IF ANYTHING OVERNIGHT
ELSEWHERE.

SHRA/TSRA WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON AS RIPPLES MOVE THROUGH THE SOUPY AIRMASS. BEST COVERAGE
WILL BE MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70...BUT ANY LOCATION AGAIN COULD SEE
BRIEF IFR. ACTIVITY DIES DOWN AGAIN FRIDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220755
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
355 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND
WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CWA IS MISSING THE BULK OF THE IMPACT FROM MCS LEFTOVERS ROLLING
TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO INTO WEST VIRGINIA.
SOME OUTFLOW-GENERATED ACTIVITY HAS GENERATED A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS IN EASTERN OHIO HOWEVER.  HAVE THIS ROLLING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CWA WITH LIKELY POPS FOR A FEW HOURS.  EARLIER LAKE ERIE
STORMS HAVE DEGENERATED INTO A FEW SHOWERS SINKING TOWARDS THE FKL
AREA.

WHILE LIKELY POPS LOOK APPROPRIATE FOR MOST OF THE AREA...STILL
THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL STAYS OFF TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY.
PERSISTENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL START TO GET NUDGED SOUTHWARD WITH
TIME...AS THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST INDUCES MORE NORTHERLY FLOW
OVER OUR AREA.  RICHER MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF 2+ PWAT REMAINS
MAINLY FROM SOUTHEAST OHIO INTO WV...WHERE THICKNESS/CORFIDI VECTOR
PATTERNS SUPPORT CONTINUED PROPAGATION OF SHOWERS/STORMS.  MUCH OF
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ARE RELATIVELY DRIER AS WELL.  LATEST HPC
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOLLOWS THIS THINKING...KEEPING THE
THREAT JUST OFF TO THE SOUTH.  WILL THEREFORE HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD
WATCH BUT WILL MAINTAIN HWO MENTION OF POSSIBLE ISOLATED PROBLEMS.
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AS
WELL...BUT ORGANIZATION OF THESE WILL REMAIN LIMITED.

LOSS OF HEATING AS WELL AS SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF FRONT WILL
ALLOW COVERAGE TO WANE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING
ISOLATED SHRA AT BEST AROUND 12Z. LINGERING CLOUDS MAY HINDER MUCH
IN THE WAY OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT.

DID NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES...WHICH WERE IN LINE WITH
LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGGRESSIVELY BUILD HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC
SAT IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROF BEING PUSHED OUT TO SEA. THIS
CONTINUES THE TREND TOWARDS AN OVERALL DRIER FORECAST FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND. AS FOR SAT...ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
RESIDES THROUGH CENTRAL PA DURING THE MORNING AS A WEAK H5 TROF
APPROACHES. EXPECTING THIS TO ACTIVATE SOME CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD REMAIN
LIMITED. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

TRIMMING BACK POPS AND SKY COVER SUN AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
SUBSIDENCE WILL WORK TO KEEP ANY CONVECTION SUN AT BAY. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT WITH DRIER AIR IN
PLACE...DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES RELAX A LITTLE ON SUN MAKING IT A
LITTLE LESS MUGGY.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS HEIGHTS
BUILD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE WELL ADVERTISED UPPER
RIDGE WILL SETTLE INTO THE OH VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK DEFLECTING WEAK
DISTURBANCES WELL TO THE NORTH. BY WEDS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS A
BROAD TROF DIGS INTO THE PLAINS BRINGING A SWEEPING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES THURS. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS
ALONG THE PROJECTED FRONT DAY 7 AS THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND STRUCTURE OF THIS SYSTEM.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL A TRICKY FORECAST TO FIGURE. CERTAINLY ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR LOW MVFR/IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP BUT FORMATION IS
QUESTIONABLE. ENDED UP GOING WITH IFR AT A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS.
MCS MAY CLIP ZZV OVER THE NEXT HOUR. -SHRA IF ANYTHING OVERNIGHT
ELSEWHERE.

SHRA/TSRA WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON AS RIPPLES MOVE THROUGH THE SOUPY AIRMASS. BEST COVERAGE
WILL BE MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70...BUT ANY LOCATION AGAIN COULD SEE
BRIEF IFR. ACTIVITY DIES DOWN AGAIN FRIDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220741
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
341 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND IS
SLOW TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INITIAL S/W EXITING THE CST ERY MRNG RESULTING IN BULK OF CURRENT
SHRAS/TSTMS ON THE ERN SHORE/ATLC CST WTRS TO SHIFT TO THE E. WILL
CONT W/ SLGT CHC POPS E PORTIONS THIS MRNG AS LINGERING ISOLD PCPN
PSBL IN WAKE OF THE S/W (AS IS PRESENT OVR INTERIOR ERN VA/NE NC.
OTRW...STARTING OUT W/ P/MCLDY CONDS...LIMITED FG BUT THERE WILL
BE POCKETS OF LO CIGS/VSBYS...ESP WHERE RA HAS FALLEN PAST 24 HRS.

M/U NW FLO RMNS OVER THE REGION TDA. A SECOND...PTNTLLY MORE
VIGOROUS S/W FM THE ERN OH DROPS THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
BEGINNING THIS AFTN. THIS SYS XPCD TO PROVIDE BEST CHC OF AND
GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE OF SHRAS/TSTMS ACROSS THE FA DUE TO MORE
FAVORABLE/STRONGER UPPER JET SUPPORT. POCKETS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN MODEST MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE UPPER
SUPPORT. THE BECOMES MNLY CLDY ACRS THE FA BY MIDDAY/AFTN HRS. HI
TEMPS FM THE L/M80S NR THE CST...TO THE M/U80S ELSW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND SLOWLY PUSHES
INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUSH THE REMNANT FRONT S OF
THE AREA. CHC POPS WILL CONTINUE EARLY SATURDAY...WITH A STEADY
DRYING TREND COMMENCING SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM NNE-SSW AS THE
HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

HI TEMPS SAT FM THE L/M 80S (U70S ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES)...W/
U70S TO L80S SUNDAY. LOWS RANGING FM THE U60S TO L70S TNGT...THEN
MNLY IN THE 60S SAT NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF MAINLY NE FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH RIDGES SOUTH WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EMERGES FROM THE BAHAMAS. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A COOLER
MARITIME AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BEGIN TO CENTER THEMSELVES OVER
THE FA. AT THIS POINT SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL AND WILL HELP TO DRY
THE ATMOSPHERE. PRECIP ALONG THE VA/NC COAST CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT DUE TO THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE NORTH AS THE SURFACE LOW
FORMS TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY IN REGARDS TO
THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. AND
DUE TO THE LARGE DEGREE OF CHANGE IN MODEL RUNS...AT THIS POINT...
WILL NOT MODIFY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TOO MUCH.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 MON AND TUES...WARMING SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID 80S
WED AND THUR. SEASONAL LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE LIKELY
AS THE MARITIME AIRMASS WILL LIMIT SIGNIFICANT OVERNIGHT COOLING.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR WASHINGTON DC THROUGH
EASTERN VIRGINIA (BETWEEN RICHMOND AND HAMPTON ROADS) AND INTO
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. WINDS WERE MAINLY FROM THE W/SW WEST OF
THE BOUNDARY AND FROM THE E/SE TO THE EAST OF IT. THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE COAST OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP JUST OFF
THE COAST TODAY WHICH WOULD HELP SHIFT THE WINDS BRIEFLY TO NW/N
DURING THE DAY.

SBY HAS A T/TD SPREAD OF AROUND 3 DEGREES AND WITH RAIN HAVING
FALLEN LATE THURSDAY...THERE MAY BE SOME IFR/LIFR FOG THERE. AN
OVERCAST HIGH CEILING SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION AT OTHER LOCATIONS
AND PRESENTLY NONE IS FORECAST AT THE OTHER TAF SITES. VCTS ALSO
INCLUDED AT SBY.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY BRING A ROUND OF TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY OR
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER FORECAST BEGINNING SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR DUE TO STRATUS OR FOG
WILL BE A POTENTIAL A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. STATIONARY FRNTAL BNDRY
REMAINS OVR THE AREA THIS MORNG...LEADING TO LGT/VRB WINDS. LO PRES
WILL FORM ALONG THE FRNT TDA...WITH WINDS BCMG N/NE BEHIND THE LO
THIS AFTN. EXPECT MAINLY 2 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS AND 1-2 WAVES OVR
THE BAY. THE FRNT PUSHES S OF THE AREA FRI NGT AS HI PRES NOSES S FM
THE NE STATES. ENERGY STREAMING SE WILL HELP FORM AN AREA OF LO PRES
OFF THE CAROLINA CST. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL ENHANCE THE PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS THE WTRS CAUSING NEAR SCA WIND GUSTS OVR THE BAY
(18-20 KT) AND CSTL WTRS (23-25 KT) ON SAT. DUE TO THE WIND
DIRECTION AND FETCH...EXPECT SEAS TO BLD TO 4-5 FT OVR THE OCEAN
BY SAT EVENG. WITH THIS BEING MAINLY 4TH PERIOD...WILL NOT ISSUE A
SCA ATTM. HI PRES BEGINS TO POSITION ITSELF OVR THE AREA BY MON/TUE
BUT LO PRES EMERGING FROM THE S MAY HELP TO MAINTAIN THE PRES
GRADIENT AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220741
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
341 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND IS
SLOW TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INITIAL S/W EXITING THE CST ERY MRNG RESULTING IN BULK OF CURRENT
SHRAS/TSTMS ON THE ERN SHORE/ATLC CST WTRS TO SHIFT TO THE E. WILL
CONT W/ SLGT CHC POPS E PORTIONS THIS MRNG AS LINGERING ISOLD PCPN
PSBL IN WAKE OF THE S/W (AS IS PRESENT OVR INTERIOR ERN VA/NE NC.
OTRW...STARTING OUT W/ P/MCLDY CONDS...LIMITED FG BUT THERE WILL
BE POCKETS OF LO CIGS/VSBYS...ESP WHERE RA HAS FALLEN PAST 24 HRS.

M/U NW FLO RMNS OVER THE REGION TDA. A SECOND...PTNTLLY MORE
VIGOROUS S/W FM THE ERN OH DROPS THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
BEGINNING THIS AFTN. THIS SYS XPCD TO PROVIDE BEST CHC OF AND
GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE OF SHRAS/TSTMS ACROSS THE FA DUE TO MORE
FAVORABLE/STRONGER UPPER JET SUPPORT. POCKETS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN MODEST MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE UPPER
SUPPORT. THE BECOMES MNLY CLDY ACRS THE FA BY MIDDAY/AFTN HRS. HI
TEMPS FM THE L/M80S NR THE CST...TO THE M/U80S ELSW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND SLOWLY PUSHES
INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUSH THE REMNANT FRONT S OF
THE AREA. CHC POPS WILL CONTINUE EARLY SATURDAY...WITH A STEADY
DRYING TREND COMMENCING SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM NNE-SSW AS THE
HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

HI TEMPS SAT FM THE L/M 80S (U70S ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES)...W/
U70S TO L80S SUNDAY. LOWS RANGING FM THE U60S TO L70S TNGT...THEN
MNLY IN THE 60S SAT NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF MAINLY NE FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH RIDGES SOUTH WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EMERGES FROM THE BAHAMAS. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A COOLER
MARITIME AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BEGIN TO CENTER THEMSELVES OVER
THE FA. AT THIS POINT SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL AND WILL HELP TO DRY
THE ATMOSPHERE. PRECIP ALONG THE VA/NC COAST CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT DUE TO THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE NORTH AS THE SURFACE LOW
FORMS TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY IN REGARDS TO
THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. AND
DUE TO THE LARGE DEGREE OF CHANGE IN MODEL RUNS...AT THIS POINT...
WILL NOT MODIFY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TOO MUCH.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 MON AND TUES...WARMING SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID 80S
WED AND THUR. SEASONAL LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE LIKELY
AS THE MARITIME AIRMASS WILL LIMIT SIGNIFICANT OVERNIGHT COOLING.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR WASHINGTON DC THROUGH
EASTERN VIRGINIA (BETWEEN RICHMOND AND HAMPTON ROADS) AND INTO
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. WINDS WERE MAINLY FROM THE W/SW WEST OF
THE BOUNDARY AND FROM THE E/SE TO THE EAST OF IT. THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE COAST OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP JUST OFF
THE COAST TODAY WHICH WOULD HELP SHIFT THE WINDS BRIEFLY TO NW/N
DURING THE DAY.

SBY HAS A T/TD SPREAD OF AROUND 3 DEGREES AND WITH RAIN HAVING
FALLEN LATE THURSDAY...THERE MAY BE SOME IFR/LIFR FOG THERE. AN
OVERCAST HIGH CEILING SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION AT OTHER LOCATIONS
AND PRESENTLY NONE IS FORECAST AT THE OTHER TAF SITES. VCTS ALSO
INCLUDED AT SBY.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY BRING A ROUND OF TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY OR
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER FORECAST BEGINNING SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR DUE TO STRATUS OR FOG
WILL BE A POTENTIAL A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. STATIONARY FRNTAL BNDRY
REMAINS OVR THE AREA THIS MORNG...LEADING TO LGT/VRB WINDS. LO PRES
WILL FORM ALONG THE FRNT TDA...WITH WINDS BCMG N/NE BEHIND THE LO
THIS AFTN. EXPECT MAINLY 2 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS AND 1-2 WAVES OVR
THE BAY. THE FRNT PUSHES S OF THE AREA FRI NGT AS HI PRES NOSES S FM
THE NE STATES. ENERGY STREAMING SE WILL HELP FORM AN AREA OF LO PRES
OFF THE CAROLINA CST. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL ENHANCE THE PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS THE WTRS CAUSING NEAR SCA WIND GUSTS OVR THE BAY
(18-20 KT) AND CSTL WTRS (23-25 KT) ON SAT. DUE TO THE WIND
DIRECTION AND FETCH...EXPECT SEAS TO BLD TO 4-5 FT OVR THE OCEAN
BY SAT EVENG. WITH THIS BEING MAINLY 4TH PERIOD...WILL NOT ISSUE A
SCA ATTM. HI PRES BEGINS TO POSITION ITSELF OVR THE AREA BY MON/TUE
BUT LO PRES EMERGING FROM THE S MAY HELP TO MAINTAIN THE PRES
GRADIENT AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220741
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
341 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND IS
SLOW TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INITIAL S/W EXITING THE CST ERY MRNG RESULTING IN BULK OF CURRENT
SHRAS/TSTMS ON THE ERN SHORE/ATLC CST WTRS TO SHIFT TO THE E. WILL
CONT W/ SLGT CHC POPS E PORTIONS THIS MRNG AS LINGERING ISOLD PCPN
PSBL IN WAKE OF THE S/W (AS IS PRESENT OVR INTERIOR ERN VA/NE NC.
OTRW...STARTING OUT W/ P/MCLDY CONDS...LIMITED FG BUT THERE WILL
BE POCKETS OF LO CIGS/VSBYS...ESP WHERE RA HAS FALLEN PAST 24 HRS.

M/U NW FLO RMNS OVER THE REGION TDA. A SECOND...PTNTLLY MORE
VIGOROUS S/W FM THE ERN OH DROPS THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
BEGINNING THIS AFTN. THIS SYS XPCD TO PROVIDE BEST CHC OF AND
GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE OF SHRAS/TSTMS ACROSS THE FA DUE TO MORE
FAVORABLE/STRONGER UPPER JET SUPPORT. POCKETS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN MODEST MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE UPPER
SUPPORT. THE BECOMES MNLY CLDY ACRS THE FA BY MIDDAY/AFTN HRS. HI
TEMPS FM THE L/M80S NR THE CST...TO THE M/U80S ELSW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND SLOWLY PUSHES
INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUSH THE REMNANT FRONT S OF
THE AREA. CHC POPS WILL CONTINUE EARLY SATURDAY...WITH A STEADY
DRYING TREND COMMENCING SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM NNE-SSW AS THE
HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

HI TEMPS SAT FM THE L/M 80S (U70S ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES)...W/
U70S TO L80S SUNDAY. LOWS RANGING FM THE U60S TO L70S TNGT...THEN
MNLY IN THE 60S SAT NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF MAINLY NE FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH RIDGES SOUTH WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EMERGES FROM THE BAHAMAS. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A COOLER
MARITIME AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BEGIN TO CENTER THEMSELVES OVER
THE FA. AT THIS POINT SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL AND WILL HELP TO DRY
THE ATMOSPHERE. PRECIP ALONG THE VA/NC COAST CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT DUE TO THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE NORTH AS THE SURFACE LOW
FORMS TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY IN REGARDS TO
THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. AND
DUE TO THE LARGE DEGREE OF CHANGE IN MODEL RUNS...AT THIS POINT...
WILL NOT MODIFY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TOO MUCH.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 MON AND TUES...WARMING SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID 80S
WED AND THUR. SEASONAL LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE LIKELY
AS THE MARITIME AIRMASS WILL LIMIT SIGNIFICANT OVERNIGHT COOLING.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR WASHINGTON DC THROUGH
EASTERN VIRGINIA (BETWEEN RICHMOND AND HAMPTON ROADS) AND INTO
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. WINDS WERE MAINLY FROM THE W/SW WEST OF
THE BOUNDARY AND FROM THE E/SE TO THE EAST OF IT. THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE COAST OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP JUST OFF
THE COAST TODAY WHICH WOULD HELP SHIFT THE WINDS BRIEFLY TO NW/N
DURING THE DAY.

SBY HAS A T/TD SPREAD OF AROUND 3 DEGREES AND WITH RAIN HAVING
FALLEN LATE THURSDAY...THERE MAY BE SOME IFR/LIFR FOG THERE. AN
OVERCAST HIGH CEILING SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION AT OTHER LOCATIONS
AND PRESENTLY NONE IS FORECAST AT THE OTHER TAF SITES. VCTS ALSO
INCLUDED AT SBY.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY BRING A ROUND OF TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY OR
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER FORECAST BEGINNING SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR DUE TO STRATUS OR FOG
WILL BE A POTENTIAL A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. STATIONARY FRNTAL BNDRY
REMAINS OVR THE AREA THIS MORNG...LEADING TO LGT/VRB WINDS. LO PRES
WILL FORM ALONG THE FRNT TDA...WITH WINDS BCMG N/NE BEHIND THE LO
THIS AFTN. EXPECT MAINLY 2 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS AND 1-2 WAVES OVR
THE BAY. THE FRNT PUSHES S OF THE AREA FRI NGT AS HI PRES NOSES S FM
THE NE STATES. ENERGY STREAMING SE WILL HELP FORM AN AREA OF LO PRES
OFF THE CAROLINA CST. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL ENHANCE THE PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS THE WTRS CAUSING NEAR SCA WIND GUSTS OVR THE BAY
(18-20 KT) AND CSTL WTRS (23-25 KT) ON SAT. DUE TO THE WIND
DIRECTION AND FETCH...EXPECT SEAS TO BLD TO 4-5 FT OVR THE OCEAN
BY SAT EVENG. WITH THIS BEING MAINLY 4TH PERIOD...WILL NOT ISSUE A
SCA ATTM. HI PRES BEGINS TO POSITION ITSELF OVR THE AREA BY MON/TUE
BUT LO PRES EMERGING FROM THE S MAY HELP TO MAINTAIN THE PRES
GRADIENT AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220741
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
341 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND IS
SLOW TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INITIAL S/W EXITING THE CST ERY MRNG RESULTING IN BULK OF CURRENT
SHRAS/TSTMS ON THE ERN SHORE/ATLC CST WTRS TO SHIFT TO THE E. WILL
CONT W/ SLGT CHC POPS E PORTIONS THIS MRNG AS LINGERING ISOLD PCPN
PSBL IN WAKE OF THE S/W (AS IS PRESENT OVR INTERIOR ERN VA/NE NC.
OTRW...STARTING OUT W/ P/MCLDY CONDS...LIMITED FG BUT THERE WILL
BE POCKETS OF LO CIGS/VSBYS...ESP WHERE RA HAS FALLEN PAST 24 HRS.

M/U NW FLO RMNS OVER THE REGION TDA. A SECOND...PTNTLLY MORE
VIGOROUS S/W FM THE ERN OH DROPS THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
BEGINNING THIS AFTN. THIS SYS XPCD TO PROVIDE BEST CHC OF AND
GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE OF SHRAS/TSTMS ACROSS THE FA DUE TO MORE
FAVORABLE/STRONGER UPPER JET SUPPORT. POCKETS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN MODEST MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE UPPER
SUPPORT. THE BECOMES MNLY CLDY ACRS THE FA BY MIDDAY/AFTN HRS. HI
TEMPS FM THE L/M80S NR THE CST...TO THE M/U80S ELSW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND SLOWLY PUSHES
INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUSH THE REMNANT FRONT S OF
THE AREA. CHC POPS WILL CONTINUE EARLY SATURDAY...WITH A STEADY
DRYING TREND COMMENCING SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM NNE-SSW AS THE
HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

HI TEMPS SAT FM THE L/M 80S (U70S ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES)...W/
U70S TO L80S SUNDAY. LOWS RANGING FM THE U60S TO L70S TNGT...THEN
MNLY IN THE 60S SAT NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF MAINLY NE FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH RIDGES SOUTH WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EMERGES FROM THE BAHAMAS. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A COOLER
MARITIME AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BEGIN TO CENTER THEMSELVES OVER
THE FA. AT THIS POINT SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL AND WILL HELP TO DRY
THE ATMOSPHERE. PRECIP ALONG THE VA/NC COAST CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT DUE TO THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE NORTH AS THE SURFACE LOW
FORMS TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY IN REGARDS TO
THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. AND
DUE TO THE LARGE DEGREE OF CHANGE IN MODEL RUNS...AT THIS POINT...
WILL NOT MODIFY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TOO MUCH.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 MON AND TUES...WARMING SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID 80S
WED AND THUR. SEASONAL LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE LIKELY
AS THE MARITIME AIRMASS WILL LIMIT SIGNIFICANT OVERNIGHT COOLING.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR WASHINGTON DC THROUGH
EASTERN VIRGINIA (BETWEEN RICHMOND AND HAMPTON ROADS) AND INTO
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. WINDS WERE MAINLY FROM THE W/SW WEST OF
THE BOUNDARY AND FROM THE E/SE TO THE EAST OF IT. THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE COAST OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP JUST OFF
THE COAST TODAY WHICH WOULD HELP SHIFT THE WINDS BRIEFLY TO NW/N
DURING THE DAY.

SBY HAS A T/TD SPREAD OF AROUND 3 DEGREES AND WITH RAIN HAVING
FALLEN LATE THURSDAY...THERE MAY BE SOME IFR/LIFR FOG THERE. AN
OVERCAST HIGH CEILING SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION AT OTHER LOCATIONS
AND PRESENTLY NONE IS FORECAST AT THE OTHER TAF SITES. VCTS ALSO
INCLUDED AT SBY.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY BRING A ROUND OF TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY OR
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER FORECAST BEGINNING SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR DUE TO STRATUS OR FOG
WILL BE A POTENTIAL A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. STATIONARY FRNTAL BNDRY
REMAINS OVR THE AREA THIS MORNG...LEADING TO LGT/VRB WINDS. LO PRES
WILL FORM ALONG THE FRNT TDA...WITH WINDS BCMG N/NE BEHIND THE LO
THIS AFTN. EXPECT MAINLY 2 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS AND 1-2 WAVES OVR
THE BAY. THE FRNT PUSHES S OF THE AREA FRI NGT AS HI PRES NOSES S FM
THE NE STATES. ENERGY STREAMING SE WILL HELP FORM AN AREA OF LO PRES
OFF THE CAROLINA CST. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL ENHANCE THE PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS THE WTRS CAUSING NEAR SCA WIND GUSTS OVR THE BAY
(18-20 KT) AND CSTL WTRS (23-25 KT) ON SAT. DUE TO THE WIND
DIRECTION AND FETCH...EXPECT SEAS TO BLD TO 4-5 FT OVR THE OCEAN
BY SAT EVENG. WITH THIS BEING MAINLY 4TH PERIOD...WILL NOT ISSUE A
SCA ATTM. HI PRES BEGINS TO POSITION ITSELF OVR THE AREA BY MON/TUE
BUT LO PRES EMERGING FROM THE S MAY HELP TO MAINTAIN THE PRES
GRADIENT AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220739
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
339 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND IS
SLOW TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INITIAL S/W EXITING THE CST ERY MRNG RESULTING IN BULK OF CURRENT
SHRAS/TSTMS ON THE ERN SHORE/ATLC CST WTRS TO SHIFT TO THE E. WILL
CONT W/ SLGT CHC POPS E PORTIONS THIS MRNG AS LINGERING ISOLD PCPN
PSBL IN WAKE OF THE S/W (AS IS PRESENT OVR INTERIOR ERN VA/NE NC.
OTRW...STARTING OUT W/ P/MCLDY CONDS...LIMITED FG BUT THERE WILL
BE POCKETS OF LO CIGS/VSBYS...ESP WHERE RA HAS FALLEN PAST 24 HRS.

M/U NW FLO RMNS OVER THE REGION TDA. A SECOND...PTNTLLY MORE
VIGOROUS S/W FM THE ERN OH DROPS THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
BEGINNING THIS AFTN. THIS SYS XPCD TO PROVIDE BEST CHC OF AND
GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE OF SHRAS/TSTMS ACROSS THE FA DUE TO MORE
FAVORABLE/STRONGER UPPER JET SUPPORT. POCKETS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN MODEST MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE UPPER
SUPPORT. THE BECOMES MNLY CLDY ACRS THE FA BY MIDDAY/AFTN HRS. HI
TEMPS FM THE L/M80S NR THE CST...TO THE M/U80S ELSW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND SLOWLY PUSHES
INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUSH THE REMNANT FRONT S OF
THE AREA. CHC POPS WILL CONTINUE EARLY SATURDAY...WITH A STEADY
DRYING TREND COMMENCING SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM NNE-SSW AS THE
HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

HI TEMPS SAT FM THE L/M 80S (U70S ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES)...W/
U70S TO L80S SUNDAY. LOWS RANGING FM THE U60S TO L70S TNGT...THEN
MNLY IN THE 60S SAT NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF MAINLY NE FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH RIDGES SOUTH WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EMERGES FROM THE BAHAMAS. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A COOLER
MARITIME AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BEGIN TO CENTER THEMSELVES OVER
THE FA. AT THIS POINT SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL AND WILL HELP TO DRY
THE ATMOSPHERE. PRECIP ALONG THE VA/NC COAST CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT DUE TO THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE NORTH AS THE SURFACE LOW
FORMS TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY IN REGARDS TO
THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. AND
DUE TO THE LARGE DEGREE OF CHANGE IN MODEL RUNS...AT THIS POINT...
WILL NOT MODIFY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TOO MUCH.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 MON AND TUES...WARMING SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID 80S
WED AND THUR. SEASONAL LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE LIKELY
AS THE MARITIME AIRMASS WILL LIMIT SIGNIFICANT OVERNIGHT COOLING.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR WASHINGTON DC THROUGH
EASTERN VIRGINIA (BETWEEN RICHMOND AND HAMPTON ROADS) AND INTO
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. WINDS WERE MAINLY FROM THE W/SW WEST OF
THE BOUNDARY AND FROM THE E/SE TO THE EAST OF IT. THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE COAST OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP JUST OFF
THE COAST TODAY WHICH WOULD HELP SHIFT THE WINDS BRIEFLY TO NW/N
DURING THE DAY.

SBY HAS A T/TD SPREAD OF AROUND 3 DEGREES AND WITH RAIN HAVING
FALLEN LATE THURSDAY...THERE MAY BE SOME IFR/LIFR FOG THERE. AN
OVERCAST HIGH CEILING SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION AT OTHER LOCATIONS
AND PRESENTLY NONE IS FORECAST AT THE OTHER TAF SITES. VCTS ALSO
INCLUDED AT SBY.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY BRING A ROUND OF TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY OR
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER FORECAST BEGINNING SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR DUE TO STRATUS OR FOG
WILL BE A POTENTIAL A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...


&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS










000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220739
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
339 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND IS
SLOW TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INITIAL S/W EXITING THE CST ERY MRNG RESULTING IN BULK OF CURRENT
SHRAS/TSTMS ON THE ERN SHORE/ATLC CST WTRS TO SHIFT TO THE E. WILL
CONT W/ SLGT CHC POPS E PORTIONS THIS MRNG AS LINGERING ISOLD PCPN
PSBL IN WAKE OF THE S/W (AS IS PRESENT OVR INTERIOR ERN VA/NE NC.
OTRW...STARTING OUT W/ P/MCLDY CONDS...LIMITED FG BUT THERE WILL
BE POCKETS OF LO CIGS/VSBYS...ESP WHERE RA HAS FALLEN PAST 24 HRS.

M/U NW FLO RMNS OVER THE REGION TDA. A SECOND...PTNTLLY MORE
VIGOROUS S/W FM THE ERN OH DROPS THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
BEGINNING THIS AFTN. THIS SYS XPCD TO PROVIDE BEST CHC OF AND
GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE OF SHRAS/TSTMS ACROSS THE FA DUE TO MORE
FAVORABLE/STRONGER UPPER JET SUPPORT. POCKETS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN MODEST MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE UPPER
SUPPORT. THE BECOMES MNLY CLDY ACRS THE FA BY MIDDAY/AFTN HRS. HI
TEMPS FM THE L/M80S NR THE CST...TO THE M/U80S ELSW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND SLOWLY PUSHES
INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUSH THE REMNANT FRONT S OF
THE AREA. CHC POPS WILL CONTINUE EARLY SATURDAY...WITH A STEADY
DRYING TREND COMMENCING SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM NNE-SSW AS THE
HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

HI TEMPS SAT FM THE L/M 80S (U70S ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES)...W/
U70S TO L80S SUNDAY. LOWS RANGING FM THE U60S TO L70S TNGT...THEN
MNLY IN THE 60S SAT NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF MAINLY NE FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH RIDGES SOUTH WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EMERGES FROM THE BAHAMAS. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A COOLER
MARITIME AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BEGIN TO CENTER THEMSELVES OVER
THE FA. AT THIS POINT SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL AND WILL HELP TO DRY
THE ATMOSPHERE. PRECIP ALONG THE VA/NC COAST CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT DUE TO THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE NORTH AS THE SURFACE LOW
FORMS TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY IN REGARDS TO
THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. AND
DUE TO THE LARGE DEGREE OF CHANGE IN MODEL RUNS...AT THIS POINT...
WILL NOT MODIFY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TOO MUCH.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 MON AND TUES...WARMING SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID 80S
WED AND THUR. SEASONAL LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE LIKELY
AS THE MARITIME AIRMASS WILL LIMIT SIGNIFICANT OVERNIGHT COOLING.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR WASHINGTON DC THROUGH
EASTERN VIRGINIA (BETWEEN RICHMOND AND HAMPTON ROADS) AND INTO
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. WINDS WERE MAINLY FROM THE W/SW WEST OF
THE BOUNDARY AND FROM THE E/SE TO THE EAST OF IT. THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE COAST OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP JUST OFF
THE COAST TODAY WHICH WOULD HELP SHIFT THE WINDS BRIEFLY TO NW/N
DURING THE DAY.

SBY HAS A T/TD SPREAD OF AROUND 3 DEGREES AND WITH RAIN HAVING
FALLEN LATE THURSDAY...THERE MAY BE SOME IFR/LIFR FOG THERE. AN
OVERCAST HIGH CEILING SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION AT OTHER LOCATIONS
AND PRESENTLY NONE IS FORECAST AT THE OTHER TAF SITES. VCTS ALSO
INCLUDED AT SBY.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY BRING A ROUND OF TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY OR
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER FORECAST BEGINNING SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR DUE TO STRATUS OR FOG
WILL BE A POTENTIAL A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...


&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS











000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220737
AFDAKQ

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. STATIONARY FRNTAL BNDRY
REMAINS OVR THE AREA THIS MORNG...LEADING TO LGT/VRB WINDS. LO PRES
WILL FORM ALONG THE FRNT TDA...WITH WINDS BCMG N/NE BEHIND THE LO
THIS AFTN. EXPECT MAINLY 2 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS AND 1-2 WAVES OVR
THE BAY. THE FRNT PUSHES S OF THE AREA FRI NGT AS HI PRES NOSES S FM
THE NE STATES. ENERGY STREAMING SE WILL HELP FORM AN AREA OF LO PRES
OFF THE CAROLINA CST. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL ENHANCE THE PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS THE WTRS CAUSING NEAR SCA WIND GUSTS OVR THE BAY
(18-20 KT) AND CSTL WTRS (23-25 KT) ON SAT. DUE TO THE WIND
DIRECTION AND FETCH...EXPECT SEAS TO BLD TO 4-5 FT OVR THE OCEAN
BY SAT EVENG. WITH THIS BEING MAINLY 4TH PERIOD...WILL NOT ISSUE A
SCA ATTM. HI PRES BEGINS TO POSITION ITSELF OVR THE AREA BY MON/TUE
BUT LO PRES EMERGING FROM THE S MAY HELP TO MAINTAIN THE PRES
GRADIENT AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220737
AFDAKQ

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. STATIONARY FRNTAL BNDRY
REMAINS OVR THE AREA THIS MORNG...LEADING TO LGT/VRB WINDS. LO PRES
WILL FORM ALONG THE FRNT TDA...WITH WINDS BCMG N/NE BEHIND THE LO
THIS AFTN. EXPECT MAINLY 2 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS AND 1-2 WAVES OVR
THE BAY. THE FRNT PUSHES S OF THE AREA FRI NGT AS HI PRES NOSES S FM
THE NE STATES. ENERGY STREAMING SE WILL HELP FORM AN AREA OF LO PRES
OFF THE CAROLINA CST. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL ENHANCE THE PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS THE WTRS CAUSING NEAR SCA WIND GUSTS OVR THE BAY
(18-20 KT) AND CSTL WTRS (23-25 KT) ON SAT. DUE TO THE WIND
DIRECTION AND FETCH...EXPECT SEAS TO BLD TO 4-5 FT OVR THE OCEAN
BY SAT EVENG. WITH THIS BEING MAINLY 4TH PERIOD...WILL NOT ISSUE A
SCA ATTM. HI PRES BEGINS TO POSITION ITSELF OVR THE AREA BY MON/TUE
BUT LO PRES EMERGING FROM THE S MAY HELP TO MAINTAIN THE PRES
GRADIENT AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220737
AFDAKQ

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. STATIONARY FRNTAL BNDRY
REMAINS OVR THE AREA THIS MORNG...LEADING TO LGT/VRB WINDS. LO PRES
WILL FORM ALONG THE FRNT TDA...WITH WINDS BCMG N/NE BEHIND THE LO
THIS AFTN. EXPECT MAINLY 2 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS AND 1-2 WAVES OVR
THE BAY. THE FRNT PUSHES S OF THE AREA FRI NGT AS HI PRES NOSES S FM
THE NE STATES. ENERGY STREAMING SE WILL HELP FORM AN AREA OF LO PRES
OFF THE CAROLINA CST. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL ENHANCE THE PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS THE WTRS CAUSING NEAR SCA WIND GUSTS OVR THE BAY
(18-20 KT) AND CSTL WTRS (23-25 KT) ON SAT. DUE TO THE WIND
DIRECTION AND FETCH...EXPECT SEAS TO BLD TO 4-5 FT OVR THE OCEAN
BY SAT EVENG. WITH THIS BEING MAINLY 4TH PERIOD...WILL NOT ISSUE A
SCA ATTM. HI PRES BEGINS TO POSITION ITSELF OVR THE AREA BY MON/TUE
BUT LO PRES EMERGING FROM THE S MAY HELP TO MAINTAIN THE PRES
GRADIENT AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220737
AFDAKQ

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. STATIONARY FRNTAL BNDRY
REMAINS OVR THE AREA THIS MORNG...LEADING TO LGT/VRB WINDS. LO PRES
WILL FORM ALONG THE FRNT TDA...WITH WINDS BCMG N/NE BEHIND THE LO
THIS AFTN. EXPECT MAINLY 2 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS AND 1-2 WAVES OVR
THE BAY. THE FRNT PUSHES S OF THE AREA FRI NGT AS HI PRES NOSES S FM
THE NE STATES. ENERGY STREAMING SE WILL HELP FORM AN AREA OF LO PRES
OFF THE CAROLINA CST. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL ENHANCE THE PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS THE WTRS CAUSING NEAR SCA WIND GUSTS OVR THE BAY
(18-20 KT) AND CSTL WTRS (23-25 KT) ON SAT. DUE TO THE WIND
DIRECTION AND FETCH...EXPECT SEAS TO BLD TO 4-5 FT OVR THE OCEAN
BY SAT EVENG. WITH THIS BEING MAINLY 4TH PERIOD...WILL NOT ISSUE A
SCA ATTM. HI PRES BEGINS TO POSITION ITSELF OVR THE AREA BY MON/TUE
BUT LO PRES EMERGING FROM THE S MAY HELP TO MAINTAIN THE PRES
GRADIENT AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220707
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
307 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND IS SLOW TO
BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATE THIS EVENING TO MAKE MINOR TWEAK TO TIMING AND LONATION
OVERNIGHT POPS. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BREAKING OUT ACROSS
CENTRAL VA ARE IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE JUST MOVING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NW. THE RAP IS HANDLING THIS FEATURE AND FORCING
VERY WELL. EXPECT THE PRECIP TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOMEWHAT IN
COVERAGE AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND THEN THE COAST
INCLUDING MD...EASTERN SHORE AND SOUTHEAST VA. THUNDER ACTIVITY
WITH THIS SHOULD BE LIMITED THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL VA...MD AND THE EASTERN SHORE.
OVERALL TEMP FORECASTS REMAIN ON TRACK.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK BROAD LOW PRESSURE IN
VICINITY OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH A BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM
E-CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER PA AHEAD OF A
~100KT UPPER JET DIVING ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES. SPC MESOANALYSIS
INDICATES 35-40KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM SE PA THROUGH THE LOWER MD
ERN SHORE ALONG WITH AN AXIS OF 1500J/KG OF MLCAPE. THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE ERN SHORE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE JET DIVES SE. A FEW STRONGER
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BASED ON FAVORABLE DYNAMIC AND THERMODYNAMIC
PARAMETERS...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE RATHER WEAK LAPSE RATES. OTHERWISE...A
CHC (30-40%) OF GENERAL THUNDER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER
JET ENERGY PASSES OVER THE AREA AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS IN
PLACE. LESS FOG IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID/UPPER NW FLOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. A
MORE VIGOROUS WAVE DROPS THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE BEST CHC OF AND GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD DUE
TO MORE FAVORABLE/STRONGER UPPER JET SUPPORT. POCKETS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN MODEST MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE UPPER
SUPPORT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND SLOWLY
PUSHES INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUSH THE REMNANT FRONT S
OF THE AREA. CHC POPS WILL CONTINUE EARLY SATURDAY...WITH A STEADY
DRYING TREND COMMENCING SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM NNE-SSW AS THE HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY 85-90...AND THEN FROM THE LOW TO MID
80S SATURDAY (UPPER 70S ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES)...WITH UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S SUNDAY. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
SATURDAY...AND IN THE 60S SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF MAINLY NE FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH RIDGES SOUTH WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EMERGES FROM THE BAHAMAS. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A COOLER
MARITIME AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BEGIN TO CENTER THEMSELVES OVER
THE FA. AT THIS POINT SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL AND WILL HELP TO DRY
THE ATMOSPHERE. PRECIP ALONG THE VA/NC COAST CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT DUE TO THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE NORTH AS THE SURFACE LOW
FORMS TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY IN REGARDS TO
THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. AND
DUE TO THE LARGE DEGREE OF CHANGE IN MODEL RUNS...AT THIS POINT...
WILL NOT MODIFY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TOO MUCH.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 MON AND TUES...WARMING SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID 80S
WED AND THUR. SEASONAL LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE LIKELY
AS THE MARITIME AIRMASS WILL LIMIT SIGNIFICANT OVERNIGHT COOLING.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR WASHINGTON DC THROUGH
EASTERN VIRGINIA (BETWEEN RICHMOND AND HAMPTON ROADS) AND INTO
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. WINDS WERE MAINLY FROM THE W/SW WEST OF
THE BOUNDARY AND FROM THE E/SE TO THE EAST OF IT. THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE COAST OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP JUST OFF
THE COAST TODAY WHICH WOULD HELP SHIFT THE WINDS BRIEFLY TO NW/N
DURING THE DAY.

SBY HAS A T/TD SPREAD OF AROUND 3 DEGREES AND WITH RAIN HAVING
FALLEN LATE THURSDAY...THERE MAY BE SOME IFR/LIFR FOG THERE. AN
OVERCAST HIGH CEILING SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION AT OTHER LOCATIONS
AND PRESENTLY NONE IS FORECAST AT THE OTHER TAF SITES. VCTS ALSO
INCLUDED AT SBY.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY BRING A ROUND OF TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY OR
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER FORECAST BEGINNING SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR DUE TO STRATUS OR FOG
WILL BE A POTENTIAL A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT IS CURRENTLY
POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
THIS WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AFTN.
EARLY SAT MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH FROM THE NORTHEASTERN
US CAUSING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. ENERGY
STREAMING SE WILL HELP FORM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL ENHANCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE WATERS CAUSING NEAR SCA WIND GUST OVER THE BAY(18-20KT) AND THE
COASTAL WATERS(23-25KT) ON SATURDAY. DUE TO THE WIND DIRECTION AND
FETCH...EXPECT WAVES TO BUILD TO 4-6FT ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS LASTING EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO POSITION OVER THE AREA BY TUESDAY BUT LOW PRESSURE
EMERGING FROM THE SOUTH MAY HELP TO MAINTAIN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH WED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/JAO
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MAS/LSA
MARINE...DAP







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220707
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
307 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND IS SLOW TO
BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATE THIS EVENING TO MAKE MINOR TWEAK TO TIMING AND LONATION
OVERNIGHT POPS. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BREAKING OUT ACROSS
CENTRAL VA ARE IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE JUST MOVING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NW. THE RAP IS HANDLING THIS FEATURE AND FORCING
VERY WELL. EXPECT THE PRECIP TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOMEWHAT IN
COVERAGE AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND THEN THE COAST
INCLUDING MD...EASTERN SHORE AND SOUTHEAST VA. THUNDER ACTIVITY
WITH THIS SHOULD BE LIMITED THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL VA...MD AND THE EASTERN SHORE.
OVERALL TEMP FORECASTS REMAIN ON TRACK.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK BROAD LOW PRESSURE IN
VICINITY OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH A BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM
E-CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER PA AHEAD OF A
~100KT UPPER JET DIVING ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES. SPC MESOANALYSIS
INDICATES 35-40KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM SE PA THROUGH THE LOWER MD
ERN SHORE ALONG WITH AN AXIS OF 1500J/KG OF MLCAPE. THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE ERN SHORE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE JET DIVES SE. A FEW STRONGER
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BASED ON FAVORABLE DYNAMIC AND THERMODYNAMIC
PARAMETERS...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE RATHER WEAK LAPSE RATES. OTHERWISE...A
CHC (30-40%) OF GENERAL THUNDER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER
JET ENERGY PASSES OVER THE AREA AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS IN
PLACE. LESS FOG IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID/UPPER NW FLOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. A
MORE VIGOROUS WAVE DROPS THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE BEST CHC OF AND GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD DUE
TO MORE FAVORABLE/STRONGER UPPER JET SUPPORT. POCKETS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN MODEST MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE UPPER
SUPPORT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND SLOWLY
PUSHES INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUSH THE REMNANT FRONT S
OF THE AREA. CHC POPS WILL CONTINUE EARLY SATURDAY...WITH A STEADY
DRYING TREND COMMENCING SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM NNE-SSW AS THE HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY 85-90...AND THEN FROM THE LOW TO MID
80S SATURDAY (UPPER 70S ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES)...WITH UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S SUNDAY. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
SATURDAY...AND IN THE 60S SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF MAINLY NE FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH RIDGES SOUTH WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EMERGES FROM THE BAHAMAS. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A COOLER
MARITIME AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BEGIN TO CENTER THEMSELVES OVER
THE FA. AT THIS POINT SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL AND WILL HELP TO DRY
THE ATMOSPHERE. PRECIP ALONG THE VA/NC COAST CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT DUE TO THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE NORTH AS THE SURFACE LOW
FORMS TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY IN REGARDS TO
THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. AND
DUE TO THE LARGE DEGREE OF CHANGE IN MODEL RUNS...AT THIS POINT...
WILL NOT MODIFY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TOO MUCH.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 MON AND TUES...WARMING SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID 80S
WED AND THUR. SEASONAL LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE LIKELY
AS THE MARITIME AIRMASS WILL LIMIT SIGNIFICANT OVERNIGHT COOLING.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR WASHINGTON DC THROUGH
EASTERN VIRGINIA (BETWEEN RICHMOND AND HAMPTON ROADS) AND INTO
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. WINDS WERE MAINLY FROM THE W/SW WEST OF
THE BOUNDARY AND FROM THE E/SE TO THE EAST OF IT. THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE COAST OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP JUST OFF
THE COAST TODAY WHICH WOULD HELP SHIFT THE WINDS BRIEFLY TO NW/N
DURING THE DAY.

SBY HAS A T/TD SPREAD OF AROUND 3 DEGREES AND WITH RAIN HAVING
FALLEN LATE THURSDAY...THERE MAY BE SOME IFR/LIFR FOG THERE. AN
OVERCAST HIGH CEILING SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION AT OTHER LOCATIONS
AND PRESENTLY NONE IS FORECAST AT THE OTHER TAF SITES. VCTS ALSO
INCLUDED AT SBY.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY BRING A ROUND OF TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY OR
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER FORECAST BEGINNING SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR DUE TO STRATUS OR FOG
WILL BE A POTENTIAL A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT IS CURRENTLY
POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
THIS WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AFTN.
EARLY SAT MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH FROM THE NORTHEASTERN
US CAUSING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. ENERGY
STREAMING SE WILL HELP FORM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL ENHANCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE WATERS CAUSING NEAR SCA WIND GUST OVER THE BAY(18-20KT) AND THE
COASTAL WATERS(23-25KT) ON SATURDAY. DUE TO THE WIND DIRECTION AND
FETCH...EXPECT WAVES TO BUILD TO 4-6FT ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS LASTING EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO POSITION OVER THE AREA BY TUESDAY BUT LOW PRESSURE
EMERGING FROM THE SOUTH MAY HELP TO MAINTAIN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH WED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/JAO
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MAS/LSA
MARINE...DAP







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220707
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
307 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND IS SLOW TO
BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATE THIS EVENING TO MAKE MINOR TWEAK TO TIMING AND LONATION
OVERNIGHT POPS. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BREAKING OUT ACROSS
CENTRAL VA ARE IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE JUST MOVING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NW. THE RAP IS HANDLING THIS FEATURE AND FORCING
VERY WELL. EXPECT THE PRECIP TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOMEWHAT IN
COVERAGE AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND THEN THE COAST
INCLUDING MD...EASTERN SHORE AND SOUTHEAST VA. THUNDER ACTIVITY
WITH THIS SHOULD BE LIMITED THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL VA...MD AND THE EASTERN SHORE.
OVERALL TEMP FORECASTS REMAIN ON TRACK.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK BROAD LOW PRESSURE IN
VICINITY OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH A BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM
E-CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER PA AHEAD OF A
~100KT UPPER JET DIVING ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES. SPC MESOANALYSIS
INDICATES 35-40KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM SE PA THROUGH THE LOWER MD
ERN SHORE ALONG WITH AN AXIS OF 1500J/KG OF MLCAPE. THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE ERN SHORE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE JET DIVES SE. A FEW STRONGER
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BASED ON FAVORABLE DYNAMIC AND THERMODYNAMIC
PARAMETERS...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE RATHER WEAK LAPSE RATES. OTHERWISE...A
CHC (30-40%) OF GENERAL THUNDER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER
JET ENERGY PASSES OVER THE AREA AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS IN
PLACE. LESS FOG IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID/UPPER NW FLOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. A
MORE VIGOROUS WAVE DROPS THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE BEST CHC OF AND GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD DUE
TO MORE FAVORABLE/STRONGER UPPER JET SUPPORT. POCKETS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN MODEST MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE UPPER
SUPPORT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND SLOWLY
PUSHES INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUSH THE REMNANT FRONT S
OF THE AREA. CHC POPS WILL CONTINUE EARLY SATURDAY...WITH A STEADY
DRYING TREND COMMENCING SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM NNE-SSW AS THE HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY 85-90...AND THEN FROM THE LOW TO MID
80S SATURDAY (UPPER 70S ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES)...WITH UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S SUNDAY. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
SATURDAY...AND IN THE 60S SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF MAINLY NE FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH RIDGES SOUTH WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EMERGES FROM THE BAHAMAS. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A COOLER
MARITIME AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BEGIN TO CENTER THEMSELVES OVER
THE FA. AT THIS POINT SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL AND WILL HELP TO DRY
THE ATMOSPHERE. PRECIP ALONG THE VA/NC COAST CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT DUE TO THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE NORTH AS THE SURFACE LOW
FORMS TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY IN REGARDS TO
THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. AND
DUE TO THE LARGE DEGREE OF CHANGE IN MODEL RUNS...AT THIS POINT...
WILL NOT MODIFY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TOO MUCH.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 MON AND TUES...WARMING SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID 80S
WED AND THUR. SEASONAL LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE LIKELY
AS THE MARITIME AIRMASS WILL LIMIT SIGNIFICANT OVERNIGHT COOLING.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR WASHINGTON DC THROUGH
EASTERN VIRGINIA (BETWEEN RICHMOND AND HAMPTON ROADS) AND INTO
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. WINDS WERE MAINLY FROM THE W/SW WEST OF
THE BOUNDARY AND FROM THE E/SE TO THE EAST OF IT. THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE COAST OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP JUST OFF
THE COAST TODAY WHICH WOULD HELP SHIFT THE WINDS BRIEFLY TO NW/N
DURING THE DAY.

SBY HAS A T/TD SPREAD OF AROUND 3 DEGREES AND WITH RAIN HAVING
FALLEN LATE THURSDAY...THERE MAY BE SOME IFR/LIFR FOG THERE. AN
OVERCAST HIGH CEILING SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION AT OTHER LOCATIONS
AND PRESENTLY NONE IS FORECAST AT THE OTHER TAF SITES. VCTS ALSO
INCLUDED AT SBY.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY BRING A ROUND OF TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY OR
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER FORECAST BEGINNING SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR DUE TO STRATUS OR FOG
WILL BE A POTENTIAL A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT IS CURRENTLY
POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
THIS WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AFTN.
EARLY SAT MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH FROM THE NORTHEASTERN
US CAUSING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. ENERGY
STREAMING SE WILL HELP FORM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL ENHANCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE WATERS CAUSING NEAR SCA WIND GUST OVER THE BAY(18-20KT) AND THE
COASTAL WATERS(23-25KT) ON SATURDAY. DUE TO THE WIND DIRECTION AND
FETCH...EXPECT WAVES TO BUILD TO 4-6FT ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS LASTING EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO POSITION OVER THE AREA BY TUESDAY BUT LOW PRESSURE
EMERGING FROM THE SOUTH MAY HELP TO MAINTAIN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH WED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/JAO
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MAS/LSA
MARINE...DAP







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220707
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
307 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND IS SLOW TO
BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATE THIS EVENING TO MAKE MINOR TWEAK TO TIMING AND LONATION
OVERNIGHT POPS. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BREAKING OUT ACROSS
CENTRAL VA ARE IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE JUST MOVING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NW. THE RAP IS HANDLING THIS FEATURE AND FORCING
VERY WELL. EXPECT THE PRECIP TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOMEWHAT IN
COVERAGE AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND THEN THE COAST
INCLUDING MD...EASTERN SHORE AND SOUTHEAST VA. THUNDER ACTIVITY
WITH THIS SHOULD BE LIMITED THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL VA...MD AND THE EASTERN SHORE.
OVERALL TEMP FORECASTS REMAIN ON TRACK.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK BROAD LOW PRESSURE IN
VICINITY OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH A BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM
E-CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER PA AHEAD OF A
~100KT UPPER JET DIVING ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES. SPC MESOANALYSIS
INDICATES 35-40KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM SE PA THROUGH THE LOWER MD
ERN SHORE ALONG WITH AN AXIS OF 1500J/KG OF MLCAPE. THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE ERN SHORE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE JET DIVES SE. A FEW STRONGER
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BASED ON FAVORABLE DYNAMIC AND THERMODYNAMIC
PARAMETERS...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE RATHER WEAK LAPSE RATES. OTHERWISE...A
CHC (30-40%) OF GENERAL THUNDER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER
JET ENERGY PASSES OVER THE AREA AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS IN
PLACE. LESS FOG IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID/UPPER NW FLOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. A
MORE VIGOROUS WAVE DROPS THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE BEST CHC OF AND GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD DUE
TO MORE FAVORABLE/STRONGER UPPER JET SUPPORT. POCKETS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN MODEST MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE UPPER
SUPPORT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND SLOWLY
PUSHES INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUSH THE REMNANT FRONT S
OF THE AREA. CHC POPS WILL CONTINUE EARLY SATURDAY...WITH A STEADY
DRYING TREND COMMENCING SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM NNE-SSW AS THE HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY 85-90...AND THEN FROM THE LOW TO MID
80S SATURDAY (UPPER 70S ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES)...WITH UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S SUNDAY. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
SATURDAY...AND IN THE 60S SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF MAINLY NE FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH RIDGES SOUTH WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EMERGES FROM THE BAHAMAS. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A COOLER
MARITIME AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BEGIN TO CENTER THEMSELVES OVER
THE FA. AT THIS POINT SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL AND WILL HELP TO DRY
THE ATMOSPHERE. PRECIP ALONG THE VA/NC COAST CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT DUE TO THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE NORTH AS THE SURFACE LOW
FORMS TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY IN REGARDS TO
THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. AND
DUE TO THE LARGE DEGREE OF CHANGE IN MODEL RUNS...AT THIS POINT...
WILL NOT MODIFY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TOO MUCH.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 MON AND TUES...WARMING SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID 80S
WED AND THUR. SEASONAL LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE LIKELY
AS THE MARITIME AIRMASS WILL LIMIT SIGNIFICANT OVERNIGHT COOLING.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR WASHINGTON DC THROUGH
EASTERN VIRGINIA (BETWEEN RICHMOND AND HAMPTON ROADS) AND INTO
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. WINDS WERE MAINLY FROM THE W/SW WEST OF
THE BOUNDARY AND FROM THE E/SE TO THE EAST OF IT. THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE COAST OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP JUST OFF
THE COAST TODAY WHICH WOULD HELP SHIFT THE WINDS BRIEFLY TO NW/N
DURING THE DAY.

SBY HAS A T/TD SPREAD OF AROUND 3 DEGREES AND WITH RAIN HAVING
FALLEN LATE THURSDAY...THERE MAY BE SOME IFR/LIFR FOG THERE. AN
OVERCAST HIGH CEILING SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION AT OTHER LOCATIONS
AND PRESENTLY NONE IS FORECAST AT THE OTHER TAF SITES. VCTS ALSO
INCLUDED AT SBY.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY BRING A ROUND OF TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY OR
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER FORECAST BEGINNING SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR DUE TO STRATUS OR FOG
WILL BE A POTENTIAL A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT IS CURRENTLY
POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
THIS WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AFTN.
EARLY SAT MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH FROM THE NORTHEASTERN
US CAUSING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. ENERGY
STREAMING SE WILL HELP FORM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL ENHANCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE WATERS CAUSING NEAR SCA WIND GUST OVER THE BAY(18-20KT) AND THE
COASTAL WATERS(23-25KT) ON SATURDAY. DUE TO THE WIND DIRECTION AND
FETCH...EXPECT WAVES TO BUILD TO 4-6FT ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS LASTING EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO POSITION OVER THE AREA BY TUESDAY BUT LOW PRESSURE
EMERGING FROM THE SOUTH MAY HELP TO MAINTAIN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH WED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/JAO
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MAS/LSA
MARINE...DAP







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220535
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
135 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
945PM UPDATE...SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. KEEPING AN EYE ON
LARGE MCS THAT HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED OVER INDIANA. USING
FORECASTED 300-700MB THICKNESS...THIS COMPLEX SHOULD JUST SKIRT TO
THE WEST OF MY AREA TONIGHT. ITS POSSIBLE THAT AN OUTFLOW FROM
STORMS WITHIN THE COMPLEX COULD SPREAD EASTWARD AND PROMOTE SOME
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FAR WEST...BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE INCLUDED
HIGHER POPS THERE. TEMPS ADJUSTED TO LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL
WAVE IS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. ADDED LIKELY POPS
TO THE NORTH AS UPPER WAVE PASSES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AMPLE CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS PITTSBURGH AND SOUTH.
HENCE...OPTIMAL DAYTIME HEATING WILL NOT OCCUR IN THAT
REGION...HOWEVER...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL AID IN INSTABILITY
YIELDING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TO THE NORTH...SUFFICIENT
HEATING DUE TO LESS CLOUDS HAVE RAMPED UP INSTABILITY. RAP
ANALYSIS SHOWS RELATIVELY STRONGER SHEAR IN THIS ZONE AS WELL.
THEREFORE...ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF PITTSBURGH.

GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WANE LATER IN THE
EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING. SOME SHOWERS MAY STILL LINGER
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE
BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION FROM A WEAKENING AND
EXITING UPPER LOW...AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SHIFT EAST ON
FRIDAY AS THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE. UNCERTAINTY STILL
EXISTS FOR ANY FLOODING AS MODELS ARE IN MINOR DISAGREEMENT FOR
THE PLACEMENT OF HEAVY RAIN. USED MODEL BLEND OF GFS/NAM FOR POPS
AND HPC FOR QPF.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A FEW SHORTWAVES TOPPING THE RIDGE
BRINGS THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AT LEAST FOR
SATURDAY BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE SMALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MORE CLARITY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH THE LATEST ROUND
OF MODEL GUIDANCE. UPPER RIDGE BUILDING NORTH WILL WORK TO DEFLECT
AN ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN AT OR EVEN JUST ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER OUT IN TIME THAN USUAL...NO EFFECTS
ARE EXPECTED LOCALLY FROM ANYTHING THAT MAY DEVELOP IN THE TROPICS.
TAX/TG

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL A TRICKY FORECAST TO FIGURE. CERTAINLY ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR LOW MVFR/IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP BUT FORMATION IS
QUESTIONABLE. ENDED UP GOING WITH IFR AT A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS.
MCS MAY CLIP ZZV OVER THE NEXT HOUR. -SHRA IF ANYTHING OVERNIGHT ELSEWHERE.

SHRA/TSRA WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON AS RIPPLES MOVE THROUGH THE SOUPY AIRMASS. BEST COVERAGE
WILL BE MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70...BUT ANY LOCATION AGAIN COULD SEE
BRIEF IFR. ACTIVITY DIES DOWN AGAIN FRIDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220535
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
135 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
945PM UPDATE...SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. KEEPING AN EYE ON
LARGE MCS THAT HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED OVER INDIANA. USING
FORECASTED 300-700MB THICKNESS...THIS COMPLEX SHOULD JUST SKIRT TO
THE WEST OF MY AREA TONIGHT. ITS POSSIBLE THAT AN OUTFLOW FROM
STORMS WITHIN THE COMPLEX COULD SPREAD EASTWARD AND PROMOTE SOME
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FAR WEST...BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE INCLUDED
HIGHER POPS THERE. TEMPS ADJUSTED TO LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL
WAVE IS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. ADDED LIKELY POPS
TO THE NORTH AS UPPER WAVE PASSES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AMPLE CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS PITTSBURGH AND SOUTH.
HENCE...OPTIMAL DAYTIME HEATING WILL NOT OCCUR IN THAT
REGION...HOWEVER...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL AID IN INSTABILITY
YIELDING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TO THE NORTH...SUFFICIENT
HEATING DUE TO LESS CLOUDS HAVE RAMPED UP INSTABILITY. RAP
ANALYSIS SHOWS RELATIVELY STRONGER SHEAR IN THIS ZONE AS WELL.
THEREFORE...ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF PITTSBURGH.

GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WANE LATER IN THE
EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING. SOME SHOWERS MAY STILL LINGER
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE
BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION FROM A WEAKENING AND
EXITING UPPER LOW...AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SHIFT EAST ON
FRIDAY AS THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE. UNCERTAINTY STILL
EXISTS FOR ANY FLOODING AS MODELS ARE IN MINOR DISAGREEMENT FOR
THE PLACEMENT OF HEAVY RAIN. USED MODEL BLEND OF GFS/NAM FOR POPS
AND HPC FOR QPF.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A FEW SHORTWAVES TOPPING THE RIDGE
BRINGS THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AT LEAST FOR
SATURDAY BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE SMALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MORE CLARITY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH THE LATEST ROUND
OF MODEL GUIDANCE. UPPER RIDGE BUILDING NORTH WILL WORK TO DEFLECT
AN ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN AT OR EVEN JUST ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER OUT IN TIME THAN USUAL...NO EFFECTS
ARE EXPECTED LOCALLY FROM ANYTHING THAT MAY DEVELOP IN THE TROPICS.
TAX/TG

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL A TRICKY FORECAST TO FIGURE. CERTAINLY ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR LOW MVFR/IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP BUT FORMATION IS
QUESTIONABLE. ENDED UP GOING WITH IFR AT A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS.
MCS MAY CLIP ZZV OVER THE NEXT HOUR. -SHRA IF ANYTHING OVERNIGHT ELSEWHERE.

SHRA/TSRA WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON AS RIPPLES MOVE THROUGH THE SOUPY AIRMASS. BEST COVERAGE
WILL BE MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70...BUT ANY LOCATION AGAIN COULD SEE
BRIEF IFR. ACTIVITY DIES DOWN AGAIN FRIDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220153
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
953 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND IS SLOW TO
BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE THIS EVENING TO MAKE MINOR TWEAK TO TIMING AND LONATION
OVERNIGHT POPS. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BREAKING OUT ACROSS
CENTRAL VA ARE IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE JUST MOVING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NW. THE RAP IS HANDLING THIS FEATURE AND FORCING
VERY WELL. EXPECT THE PRECIP TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOMEWHAT IN
COVERAGE AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND THEN THE COAST
INCLUDING MD...EASTERN SHORE AND SOUTHEAST VA. THUNDER ACTIVITY
WITH THIS SHOULD BE LIMITED THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL VA...MD AND THE EASTERN SHORE.
OVERALL TEMP FORECASTS REMAIN ON TRACK.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK BROAD LOW PRESSURE IN
VICINITY OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH A BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM
E-CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER PA AHEAD OF A
~100KT UPPER JET DIVING ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES. SPC MESOANALYSIS
INDICATES 35-40KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM SE PA THROUGH THE LOWER MD
ERN SHORE ALONG WITH AN AXIS OF 1500J/KG OF MLCAPE. THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE ERN SHORE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE JET DIVES SE. A FEW STRONGER
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BASED ON FAVORABLE DYNAMIC AND THERMODYNAMIC
PARAMETERS...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE RATHER WEAK LAPSE RATES. OTHERWISE...A
CHC (30-40%) OF GENERAL THUNDER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER
JET ENERGY PASSES OVER THE AREA AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS IN
PLACE. LESS FOG IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID/UPPER NW FLOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. A
MORE VIGOROUS WAVE DROPS THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE BEST CHC OF AND GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD DUE
TO MORE FAVORABLE/STRONGER UPPER JET SUPPORT. POCKETS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN MODEST MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE UPPER
SUPPORT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND SLOWLY
PUSHES INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUSH THE REMNANT FRONT S
OF THE AREA. CHC POPS WILL CONTINUE EARLY SATURDAY...WITH A STEADY
DRYING TREND COMMENCING SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM NNE-SSW AS THE HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY 85-90...AND THEN FROM THE LOW TO MID
80S SATURDAY (UPPER 70S ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES)...WITH UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S SUNDAY. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
SATURDAY...AND IN THE 60S SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF MAINLY NE FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH RIDGES SOUTH WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EMERGES FROM THE BAHAMAS. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A COOLER
MARITIME AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BEGIN TO CENTER THEMSELVES OVER
THE FA. AT THIS POINT SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL AND WILL HELP TO DRY
THE ATMOSPHERE. PRECIP ALONG THE VA/NC COAST CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT DUE TO THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE NORTH AS THE SURFACE LOW
FORMS TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY IN REGARDS TO
THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. AND
DUE TO THE LARGE DEGREE OF CHANGE IN MODEL RUNS...AT THIS POINT...
WILL NOT MODIFY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TOO MUCH.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 MON AND TUES...WARMING SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID 80S
WED AND THUR. SEASONAL LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE LIKELY
AS THE MARITIME AIRMASS WILL LIMIT SIGNIFICANT OVERNIGHT COOLING.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 23Z...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR WASHINGTON DC THROUGH
EASTERN VIRGINIA (BETWEEN RICHMOND AND HAMPTON ROADS) AND INTO
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. WINDS WERE MAINLY FROM THE W/SW WEST OF THE
BOUNDARY AND FROM THE E/SE TO THE EAST OF IT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE COAST OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP JUST OFF THE
COAST FRIDAY WHICH WOULD HELP SHIFT THE WINDS BRIEFLY TO NW/N DURING
THE DAY.

WIDELY SCT TSTMS WERE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BUT NONE WERE A
THEREAT TO THE TAF SITES. A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN MAY AFFECT SOME
LOCATIONS LATER THIS EVENING. SBY HAS A T/TD SPREAD OF AROUND 5
DEGREES AND WITH RAIN HAVING FALLEN LATE THURSDAY...THERE MAY BE
SOME MVFR/IFR FOG THERE. AN OVERCAST HIGH CEILING SHOULD LIMIT FOG
FORMATION AT ALL LOCATIONS AND PRESENTLY NONE IS FORECAST AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES.

FRIDAY SHOULD BE A DRY AT THE BEGINNING BUT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE MAY BRING A ROUND OF TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER FORECAST BEGINNING SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR DUE TO STRATUS OR FOG
WILL BE A POTENTIAL A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT IS CURRENTLY
POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
THIS WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AFTN.
EARLY SAT MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH FROM THE NORTHEASTERN
US CAUSING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. ENERGY
STREAMING SE WILL HELP FORM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL ENHANCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE WATERS CAUSING NEAR SCA WIND GUST OVER THE BAY(18-20KT) AND THE
COASTAL WATERS(23-25KT) ON SATURDAY. DUE TO THE WIND DIRECTION AND
FETCH...EXPECT WAVES TO BUILD TO 4-6FT ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS LASTING EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO POSITION OVER THE AREA BY TUESDAY BUT LOW PRESSURE
EMERGING FROM THE SOUTH MAY HELP TO MAINTAIN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH WED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...NONE.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ099.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/JAO
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...DAP







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220153
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
953 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND IS SLOW TO
BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE THIS EVENING TO MAKE MINOR TWEAK TO TIMING AND LONATION
OVERNIGHT POPS. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BREAKING OUT ACROSS
CENTRAL VA ARE IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE JUST MOVING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NW. THE RAP IS HANDLING THIS FEATURE AND FORCING
VERY WELL. EXPECT THE PRECIP TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOMEWHAT IN
COVERAGE AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND THEN THE COAST
INCLUDING MD...EASTERN SHORE AND SOUTHEAST VA. THUNDER ACTIVITY
WITH THIS SHOULD BE LIMITED THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL VA...MD AND THE EASTERN SHORE.
OVERALL TEMP FORECASTS REMAIN ON TRACK.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK BROAD LOW PRESSURE IN
VICINITY OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH A BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM
E-CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER PA AHEAD OF A
~100KT UPPER JET DIVING ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES. SPC MESOANALYSIS
INDICATES 35-40KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM SE PA THROUGH THE LOWER MD
ERN SHORE ALONG WITH AN AXIS OF 1500J/KG OF MLCAPE. THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE ERN SHORE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE JET DIVES SE. A FEW STRONGER
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BASED ON FAVORABLE DYNAMIC AND THERMODYNAMIC
PARAMETERS...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE RATHER WEAK LAPSE RATES. OTHERWISE...A
CHC (30-40%) OF GENERAL THUNDER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER
JET ENERGY PASSES OVER THE AREA AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS IN
PLACE. LESS FOG IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID/UPPER NW FLOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. A
MORE VIGOROUS WAVE DROPS THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE BEST CHC OF AND GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD DUE
TO MORE FAVORABLE/STRONGER UPPER JET SUPPORT. POCKETS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN MODEST MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE UPPER
SUPPORT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND SLOWLY
PUSHES INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUSH THE REMNANT FRONT S
OF THE AREA. CHC POPS WILL CONTINUE EARLY SATURDAY...WITH A STEADY
DRYING TREND COMMENCING SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM NNE-SSW AS THE HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY 85-90...AND THEN FROM THE LOW TO MID
80S SATURDAY (UPPER 70S ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES)...WITH UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S SUNDAY. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
SATURDAY...AND IN THE 60S SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF MAINLY NE FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH RIDGES SOUTH WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EMERGES FROM THE BAHAMAS. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A COOLER
MARITIME AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BEGIN TO CENTER THEMSELVES OVER
THE FA. AT THIS POINT SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL AND WILL HELP TO DRY
THE ATMOSPHERE. PRECIP ALONG THE VA/NC COAST CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT DUE TO THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE NORTH AS THE SURFACE LOW
FORMS TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY IN REGARDS TO
THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. AND
DUE TO THE LARGE DEGREE OF CHANGE IN MODEL RUNS...AT THIS POINT...
WILL NOT MODIFY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TOO MUCH.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 MON AND TUES...WARMING SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID 80S
WED AND THUR. SEASONAL LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE LIKELY
AS THE MARITIME AIRMASS WILL LIMIT SIGNIFICANT OVERNIGHT COOLING.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 23Z...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR WASHINGTON DC THROUGH
EASTERN VIRGINIA (BETWEEN RICHMOND AND HAMPTON ROADS) AND INTO
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. WINDS WERE MAINLY FROM THE W/SW WEST OF THE
BOUNDARY AND FROM THE E/SE TO THE EAST OF IT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE COAST OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP JUST OFF THE
COAST FRIDAY WHICH WOULD HELP SHIFT THE WINDS BRIEFLY TO NW/N DURING
THE DAY.

WIDELY SCT TSTMS WERE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BUT NONE WERE A
THEREAT TO THE TAF SITES. A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN MAY AFFECT SOME
LOCATIONS LATER THIS EVENING. SBY HAS A T/TD SPREAD OF AROUND 5
DEGREES AND WITH RAIN HAVING FALLEN LATE THURSDAY...THERE MAY BE
SOME MVFR/IFR FOG THERE. AN OVERCAST HIGH CEILING SHOULD LIMIT FOG
FORMATION AT ALL LOCATIONS AND PRESENTLY NONE IS FORECAST AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES.

FRIDAY SHOULD BE A DRY AT THE BEGINNING BUT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE MAY BRING A ROUND OF TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER FORECAST BEGINNING SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR DUE TO STRATUS OR FOG
WILL BE A POTENTIAL A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT IS CURRENTLY
POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
THIS WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AFTN.
EARLY SAT MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH FROM THE NORTHEASTERN
US CAUSING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. ENERGY
STREAMING SE WILL HELP FORM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL ENHANCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE WATERS CAUSING NEAR SCA WIND GUST OVER THE BAY(18-20KT) AND THE
COASTAL WATERS(23-25KT) ON SATURDAY. DUE TO THE WIND DIRECTION AND
FETCH...EXPECT WAVES TO BUILD TO 4-6FT ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS LASTING EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO POSITION OVER THE AREA BY TUESDAY BUT LOW PRESSURE
EMERGING FROM THE SOUTH MAY HELP TO MAINTAIN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH WED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...NONE.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ099.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/JAO
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...DAP







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220153
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
953 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND IS SLOW TO
BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE THIS EVENING TO MAKE MINOR TWEAK TO TIMING AND LONATION
OVERNIGHT POPS. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BREAKING OUT ACROSS
CENTRAL VA ARE IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE JUST MOVING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NW. THE RAP IS HANDLING THIS FEATURE AND FORCING
VERY WELL. EXPECT THE PRECIP TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOMEWHAT IN
COVERAGE AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND THEN THE COAST
INCLUDING MD...EASTERN SHORE AND SOUTHEAST VA. THUNDER ACTIVITY
WITH THIS SHOULD BE LIMITED THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL VA...MD AND THE EASTERN SHORE.
OVERALL TEMP FORECASTS REMAIN ON TRACK.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK BROAD LOW PRESSURE IN
VICINITY OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH A BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM
E-CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER PA AHEAD OF A
~100KT UPPER JET DIVING ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES. SPC MESOANALYSIS
INDICATES 35-40KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM SE PA THROUGH THE LOWER MD
ERN SHORE ALONG WITH AN AXIS OF 1500J/KG OF MLCAPE. THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE ERN SHORE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE JET DIVES SE. A FEW STRONGER
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BASED ON FAVORABLE DYNAMIC AND THERMODYNAMIC
PARAMETERS...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE RATHER WEAK LAPSE RATES. OTHERWISE...A
CHC (30-40%) OF GENERAL THUNDER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER
JET ENERGY PASSES OVER THE AREA AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS IN
PLACE. LESS FOG IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID/UPPER NW FLOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. A
MORE VIGOROUS WAVE DROPS THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE BEST CHC OF AND GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD DUE
TO MORE FAVORABLE/STRONGER UPPER JET SUPPORT. POCKETS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN MODEST MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE UPPER
SUPPORT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND SLOWLY
PUSHES INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUSH THE REMNANT FRONT S
OF THE AREA. CHC POPS WILL CONTINUE EARLY SATURDAY...WITH A STEADY
DRYING TREND COMMENCING SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM NNE-SSW AS THE HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY 85-90...AND THEN FROM THE LOW TO MID
80S SATURDAY (UPPER 70S ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES)...WITH UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S SUNDAY. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
SATURDAY...AND IN THE 60S SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF MAINLY NE FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH RIDGES SOUTH WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EMERGES FROM THE BAHAMAS. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A COOLER
MARITIME AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BEGIN TO CENTER THEMSELVES OVER
THE FA. AT THIS POINT SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL AND WILL HELP TO DRY
THE ATMOSPHERE. PRECIP ALONG THE VA/NC COAST CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT DUE TO THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE NORTH AS THE SURFACE LOW
FORMS TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY IN REGARDS TO
THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. AND
DUE TO THE LARGE DEGREE OF CHANGE IN MODEL RUNS...AT THIS POINT...
WILL NOT MODIFY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TOO MUCH.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 MON AND TUES...WARMING SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID 80S
WED AND THUR. SEASONAL LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE LIKELY
AS THE MARITIME AIRMASS WILL LIMIT SIGNIFICANT OVERNIGHT COOLING.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 23Z...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR WASHINGTON DC THROUGH
EASTERN VIRGINIA (BETWEEN RICHMOND AND HAMPTON ROADS) AND INTO
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. WINDS WERE MAINLY FROM THE W/SW WEST OF THE
BOUNDARY AND FROM THE E/SE TO THE EAST OF IT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE COAST OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP JUST OFF THE
COAST FRIDAY WHICH WOULD HELP SHIFT THE WINDS BRIEFLY TO NW/N DURING
THE DAY.

WIDELY SCT TSTMS WERE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BUT NONE WERE A
THEREAT TO THE TAF SITES. A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN MAY AFFECT SOME
LOCATIONS LATER THIS EVENING. SBY HAS A T/TD SPREAD OF AROUND 5
DEGREES AND WITH RAIN HAVING FALLEN LATE THURSDAY...THERE MAY BE
SOME MVFR/IFR FOG THERE. AN OVERCAST HIGH CEILING SHOULD LIMIT FOG
FORMATION AT ALL LOCATIONS AND PRESENTLY NONE IS FORECAST AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES.

FRIDAY SHOULD BE A DRY AT THE BEGINNING BUT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE MAY BRING A ROUND OF TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER FORECAST BEGINNING SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR DUE TO STRATUS OR FOG
WILL BE A POTENTIAL A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT IS CURRENTLY
POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
THIS WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AFTN.
EARLY SAT MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH FROM THE NORTHEASTERN
US CAUSING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. ENERGY
STREAMING SE WILL HELP FORM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL ENHANCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE WATERS CAUSING NEAR SCA WIND GUST OVER THE BAY(18-20KT) AND THE
COASTAL WATERS(23-25KT) ON SATURDAY. DUE TO THE WIND DIRECTION AND
FETCH...EXPECT WAVES TO BUILD TO 4-6FT ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS LASTING EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO POSITION OVER THE AREA BY TUESDAY BUT LOW PRESSURE
EMERGING FROM THE SOUTH MAY HELP TO MAINTAIN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH WED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...NONE.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ099.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/JAO
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...DAP







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220153
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
953 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND IS SLOW TO
BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE THIS EVENING TO MAKE MINOR TWEAK TO TIMING AND LONATION
OVERNIGHT POPS. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BREAKING OUT ACROSS
CENTRAL VA ARE IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE JUST MOVING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NW. THE RAP IS HANDLING THIS FEATURE AND FORCING
VERY WELL. EXPECT THE PRECIP TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOMEWHAT IN
COVERAGE AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND THEN THE COAST
INCLUDING MD...EASTERN SHORE AND SOUTHEAST VA. THUNDER ACTIVITY
WITH THIS SHOULD BE LIMITED THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL VA...MD AND THE EASTERN SHORE.
OVERALL TEMP FORECASTS REMAIN ON TRACK.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK BROAD LOW PRESSURE IN
VICINITY OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH A BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM
E-CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER PA AHEAD OF A
~100KT UPPER JET DIVING ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES. SPC MESOANALYSIS
INDICATES 35-40KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM SE PA THROUGH THE LOWER MD
ERN SHORE ALONG WITH AN AXIS OF 1500J/KG OF MLCAPE. THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE ERN SHORE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE JET DIVES SE. A FEW STRONGER
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BASED ON FAVORABLE DYNAMIC AND THERMODYNAMIC
PARAMETERS...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE RATHER WEAK LAPSE RATES. OTHERWISE...A
CHC (30-40%) OF GENERAL THUNDER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER
JET ENERGY PASSES OVER THE AREA AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS IN
PLACE. LESS FOG IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID/UPPER NW FLOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. A
MORE VIGOROUS WAVE DROPS THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE BEST CHC OF AND GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD DUE
TO MORE FAVORABLE/STRONGER UPPER JET SUPPORT. POCKETS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN MODEST MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE UPPER
SUPPORT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND SLOWLY
PUSHES INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUSH THE REMNANT FRONT S
OF THE AREA. CHC POPS WILL CONTINUE EARLY SATURDAY...WITH A STEADY
DRYING TREND COMMENCING SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM NNE-SSW AS THE HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY 85-90...AND THEN FROM THE LOW TO MID
80S SATURDAY (UPPER 70S ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES)...WITH UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S SUNDAY. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
SATURDAY...AND IN THE 60S SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF MAINLY NE FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH RIDGES SOUTH WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EMERGES FROM THE BAHAMAS. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A COOLER
MARITIME AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BEGIN TO CENTER THEMSELVES OVER
THE FA. AT THIS POINT SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL AND WILL HELP TO DRY
THE ATMOSPHERE. PRECIP ALONG THE VA/NC COAST CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT DUE TO THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE NORTH AS THE SURFACE LOW
FORMS TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY IN REGARDS TO
THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. AND
DUE TO THE LARGE DEGREE OF CHANGE IN MODEL RUNS...AT THIS POINT...
WILL NOT MODIFY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TOO MUCH.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 MON AND TUES...WARMING SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID 80S
WED AND THUR. SEASONAL LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE LIKELY
AS THE MARITIME AIRMASS WILL LIMIT SIGNIFICANT OVERNIGHT COOLING.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 23Z...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR WASHINGTON DC THROUGH
EASTERN VIRGINIA (BETWEEN RICHMOND AND HAMPTON ROADS) AND INTO
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. WINDS WERE MAINLY FROM THE W/SW WEST OF THE
BOUNDARY AND FROM THE E/SE TO THE EAST OF IT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE COAST OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP JUST OFF THE
COAST FRIDAY WHICH WOULD HELP SHIFT THE WINDS BRIEFLY TO NW/N DURING
THE DAY.

WIDELY SCT TSTMS WERE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BUT NONE WERE A
THEREAT TO THE TAF SITES. A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN MAY AFFECT SOME
LOCATIONS LATER THIS EVENING. SBY HAS A T/TD SPREAD OF AROUND 5
DEGREES AND WITH RAIN HAVING FALLEN LATE THURSDAY...THERE MAY BE
SOME MVFR/IFR FOG THERE. AN OVERCAST HIGH CEILING SHOULD LIMIT FOG
FORMATION AT ALL LOCATIONS AND PRESENTLY NONE IS FORECAST AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES.

FRIDAY SHOULD BE A DRY AT THE BEGINNING BUT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE MAY BRING A ROUND OF TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER FORECAST BEGINNING SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR DUE TO STRATUS OR FOG
WILL BE A POTENTIAL A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT IS CURRENTLY
POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
THIS WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AFTN.
EARLY SAT MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH FROM THE NORTHEASTERN
US CAUSING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. ENERGY
STREAMING SE WILL HELP FORM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL ENHANCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE WATERS CAUSING NEAR SCA WIND GUST OVER THE BAY(18-20KT) AND THE
COASTAL WATERS(23-25KT) ON SATURDAY. DUE TO THE WIND DIRECTION AND
FETCH...EXPECT WAVES TO BUILD TO 4-6FT ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS LASTING EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO POSITION OVER THE AREA BY TUESDAY BUT LOW PRESSURE
EMERGING FROM THE SOUTH MAY HELP TO MAINTAIN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH WED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...NONE.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ099.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/JAO
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...DAP







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220149 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
949 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
945PM UPDATE...SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. KEEPING AN EYE ON
LARGE MCS THAT HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED OVER INDIANA. USING
FORECASTED 300-700MB THICKNESS...THIS COMPLEX SHOULD JUST SKIRT TO
THE WEST OF MY AREA TONIGHT. ITS POSSIBLE THAT AN OUTFLOW FROM
STORMS WITHIN THE COMPLEX COULD SPREAD EASTWARD AND PROMOTE SOME
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FAR WEST...BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE INCLUDED
HIGHER POPS THERE. TEMPS ADJUSTED TO LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL
WAVE IS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. ADDED LIKELY POPS
TO THE NORTH AS UPPER WAVE PASSES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AMPLE CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS PITTSBURGH AND SOUTH.
HENCE...OPTIMAL DAYTIME HEATING WILL NOT OCCUR IN THAT
REGION...HOWEVER...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL AID IN INSTABILITY
YIELDING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TO THE NORTH...SUFFICIENT
HEATING DUE TO LESS CLOUDS HAVE RAMPED UP INSTABILITY. RAP
ANALYSIS SHOWS RELATIVELY STRONGER SHEAR IN THIS ZONE AS WELL.
THEREFORE...ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF PITTSBURGH.

GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WANE LATER IN THE
EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING. SOME SHOWERS MAY STILL LINGER
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE
BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION FROM A WEAKENING AND
EXITING UPPER LOW...AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SHIFT EAST ON
FRIDAY AS THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE. UNCERTAINTY STILL
EXISTS FOR ANY FLOODING AS MODELS ARE IN MINOR DISAGREEMENT FOR
THE PLACEMENT OF HEAVY RAIN. USED MODEL BLEND OF GFS/NAM FOR POPS
AND HPC FOR QPF.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A FEW SHORTWAVES TOPPING THE RIDGE
BRINGS THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AT LEAST FOR
SATURDAY BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE SMALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MORE CLARITY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH THE LATEST ROUND
OF MODEL GUIDANCE. UPPER RIDGE BUILDING NORTH WILL WORK TO DEFLECT
AN ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN AT OR EVEN JUST ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER OUT IN TIME THAN USUAL...NO EFFECTS
ARE EXPECTED LOCALLY FROM ANYTHING THAT MAY DEVELOP IN THE TROPICS.
TAX/TG

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH THE RISK FOR MVFR/IFR FOG
AND CIGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. STILL SEEING SOME AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS THAT NEVER LEFT FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY. WILL GO WITH GENERAL
VFR EARLY THEN DETERIORATE CONDITIONS LATER. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
MOVE BACK IN FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220149 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
949 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
945PM UPDATE...SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. KEEPING AN EYE ON
LARGE MCS THAT HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED OVER INDIANA. USING
FORECASTED 300-700MB THICKNESS...THIS COMPLEX SHOULD JUST SKIRT TO
THE WEST OF MY AREA TONIGHT. ITS POSSIBLE THAT AN OUTFLOW FROM
STORMS WITHIN THE COMPLEX COULD SPREAD EASTWARD AND PROMOTE SOME
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FAR WEST...BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE INCLUDED
HIGHER POPS THERE. TEMPS ADJUSTED TO LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL
WAVE IS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. ADDED LIKELY POPS
TO THE NORTH AS UPPER WAVE PASSES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AMPLE CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS PITTSBURGH AND SOUTH.
HENCE...OPTIMAL DAYTIME HEATING WILL NOT OCCUR IN THAT
REGION...HOWEVER...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL AID IN INSTABILITY
YIELDING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TO THE NORTH...SUFFICIENT
HEATING DUE TO LESS CLOUDS HAVE RAMPED UP INSTABILITY. RAP
ANALYSIS SHOWS RELATIVELY STRONGER SHEAR IN THIS ZONE AS WELL.
THEREFORE...ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF PITTSBURGH.

GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WANE LATER IN THE
EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING. SOME SHOWERS MAY STILL LINGER
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE
BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION FROM A WEAKENING AND
EXITING UPPER LOW...AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SHIFT EAST ON
FRIDAY AS THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE. UNCERTAINTY STILL
EXISTS FOR ANY FLOODING AS MODELS ARE IN MINOR DISAGREEMENT FOR
THE PLACEMENT OF HEAVY RAIN. USED MODEL BLEND OF GFS/NAM FOR POPS
AND HPC FOR QPF.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A FEW SHORTWAVES TOPPING THE RIDGE
BRINGS THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AT LEAST FOR
SATURDAY BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE SMALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MORE CLARITY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH THE LATEST ROUND
OF MODEL GUIDANCE. UPPER RIDGE BUILDING NORTH WILL WORK TO DEFLECT
AN ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN AT OR EVEN JUST ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER OUT IN TIME THAN USUAL...NO EFFECTS
ARE EXPECTED LOCALLY FROM ANYTHING THAT MAY DEVELOP IN THE TROPICS.
TAX/TG

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH THE RISK FOR MVFR/IFR FOG
AND CIGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. STILL SEEING SOME AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS THAT NEVER LEFT FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY. WILL GO WITH GENERAL
VFR EARLY THEN DETERIORATE CONDITIONS LATER. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
MOVE BACK IN FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 220140
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
940 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION EXTENDED FROM THE LEHIGH VALLEY UP INTO NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE CONTINUING TO
REGENERATE ALONG REMNANT BOUNDARIES AND THE DISSIPATION PROCESS
SHOULD BE RATHER SLOW FROM THIS POINT ONWARD, ESPECIALLY WITH A
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. WE
WILL FORECAST CATEGORICAL OR LIKELY PRECIPITATION FOR OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT, THEN WE WILL LOWER THE
PROBABILITIES INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE LATE NIGHT PERIOD.

THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY AND NORTHERN
DELAWARE SHOULD BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE, AS WELL. THE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DRIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NIGHT AND THE AREA MAY
EXPAND A BIT. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE THE MENTION OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS FOR OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT WITH A
LIGHT SOUTH TO EAST WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
1000J OF MLCAPE AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR CUES
INTEREST IN CONVECTION FRI AFTN. SREF HAS DECENT PROBS FOR
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY E PA...S NJ AND THE DELMARVA. FOR NOW HAVE
PLAYED THE SHOWER AND TSTM RISK CONSERVATIVELY AND MAINTAINED THE
330 AM THURSDAY FCST POPS FOR FRIDAY...ABOUT 10 PCT BELOW THE
12Z/21 GFS/NAM MOS BLEND.

IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE EASTERLY AS THE
SFC LOW CONSOLIDATES TO THE S OF THE DELMARVA.

FCST BASIS: TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS ARE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/21
GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK
UPPER LOW AND SFC LOW THU NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. SCT SHOWERS AND A
FEW TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS MOST AREAS THU EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...A COUPLE LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SAT MOSTLY
ACROSS THE DELMARVA...SE PA AND SRN NJ. CHC FOR SHOWERS ARE ONLY
IN THE CHC RANGE HOWEVER. A FEW DOWNPOURS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THU
NIGHT WITH THE HIGHER PWATS STILL ACROSS THE SRN AREAS. LOWS THU
NIGHT WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE NORTH AND MID/UPPER
60S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS SAT IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S SOUTH AND LOW TO
MID 70S NORTH. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH IN FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH SAT.

AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS UP TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND
THEN ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE SLOWLY IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER HIGH. THIS WILL PRODUCE
A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR OUR REGION. POPS FOR SAT NIGHT THRU
NEXT WEN NIGHT ARE SUB-15PCT RANGE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUN/MON...NEAR
NORMAL TUE...AND THEN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WED/THU. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL BE COMFORTABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL TREND UP
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENING FROM AROUND KABE AND KTTN NORTHWARD.
PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE
FOR LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. SOME SPOTS COULD FALL TO IFR
DEPENDING UPON THE EXTENT OF ANY STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG
WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THAT TIME.

THE WIND SHOULD BACK FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TO THE EAST
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LESS THAN
10 KNOTS

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU SAT...MOSTLY VFR BUT SCT SHOWERS MAY BRING LOWER
CONDITIONS.

SAT NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
BECOMING EASTERLY FRIDAY.

WE`VE NOT SEEN ANY NEW MAREPS THIS WEEK FROM MARINERS IN OUR EASY
USE (INTERNET AND/OR SMART PHONE) LINK
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/MAROBSFORM THIS HAS BEEN DERIVED FOR THE
MARINER TO EASILY POST INFO INSTANTLY TO THE NWS FOR USE IN OUR
MARINE PRODUCTS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS WITH SCT SHOWERS.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...LOW END SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN.
FAIR WEATHER.

SUN THRU TUE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...IOVINO/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 220140
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
940 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION EXTENDED FROM THE LEHIGH VALLEY UP INTO NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE CONTINUING TO
REGENERATE ALONG REMNANT BOUNDARIES AND THE DISSIPATION PROCESS
SHOULD BE RATHER SLOW FROM THIS POINT ONWARD, ESPECIALLY WITH A
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. WE
WILL FORECAST CATEGORICAL OR LIKELY PRECIPITATION FOR OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT, THEN WE WILL LOWER THE
PROBABILITIES INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE LATE NIGHT PERIOD.

THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY AND NORTHERN
DELAWARE SHOULD BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE, AS WELL. THE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DRIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NIGHT AND THE AREA MAY
EXPAND A BIT. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE THE MENTION OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS FOR OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT WITH A
LIGHT SOUTH TO EAST WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
1000J OF MLCAPE AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR CUES
INTEREST IN CONVECTION FRI AFTN. SREF HAS DECENT PROBS FOR
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY E PA...S NJ AND THE DELMARVA. FOR NOW HAVE
PLAYED THE SHOWER AND TSTM RISK CONSERVATIVELY AND MAINTAINED THE
330 AM THURSDAY FCST POPS FOR FRIDAY...ABOUT 10 PCT BELOW THE
12Z/21 GFS/NAM MOS BLEND.

IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE EASTERLY AS THE
SFC LOW CONSOLIDATES TO THE S OF THE DELMARVA.

FCST BASIS: TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS ARE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/21
GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK
UPPER LOW AND SFC LOW THU NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. SCT SHOWERS AND A
FEW TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS MOST AREAS THU EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...A COUPLE LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SAT MOSTLY
ACROSS THE DELMARVA...SE PA AND SRN NJ. CHC FOR SHOWERS ARE ONLY
IN THE CHC RANGE HOWEVER. A FEW DOWNPOURS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THU
NIGHT WITH THE HIGHER PWATS STILL ACROSS THE SRN AREAS. LOWS THU
NIGHT WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE NORTH AND MID/UPPER
60S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS SAT IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S SOUTH AND LOW TO
MID 70S NORTH. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH IN FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH SAT.

AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS UP TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND
THEN ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE SLOWLY IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER HIGH. THIS WILL PRODUCE
A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR OUR REGION. POPS FOR SAT NIGHT THRU
NEXT WEN NIGHT ARE SUB-15PCT RANGE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUN/MON...NEAR
NORMAL TUE...AND THEN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WED/THU. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL BE COMFORTABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL TREND UP
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENING FROM AROUND KABE AND KTTN NORTHWARD.
PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE
FOR LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. SOME SPOTS COULD FALL TO IFR
DEPENDING UPON THE EXTENT OF ANY STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG
WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THAT TIME.

THE WIND SHOULD BACK FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TO THE EAST
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LESS THAN
10 KNOTS

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU SAT...MOSTLY VFR BUT SCT SHOWERS MAY BRING LOWER
CONDITIONS.

SAT NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
BECOMING EASTERLY FRIDAY.

WE`VE NOT SEEN ANY NEW MAREPS THIS WEEK FROM MARINERS IN OUR EASY
USE (INTERNET AND/OR SMART PHONE) LINK
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/MAROBSFORM THIS HAS BEEN DERIVED FOR THE
MARINER TO EASILY POST INFO INSTANTLY TO THE NWS FOR USE IN OUR
MARINE PRODUCTS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS WITH SCT SHOWERS.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...LOW END SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN.
FAIR WEATHER.

SUN THRU TUE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...IOVINO/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 220140
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
940 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION EXTENDED FROM THE LEHIGH VALLEY UP INTO NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE CONTINUING TO
REGENERATE ALONG REMNANT BOUNDARIES AND THE DISSIPATION PROCESS
SHOULD BE RATHER SLOW FROM THIS POINT ONWARD, ESPECIALLY WITH A
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. WE
WILL FORECAST CATEGORICAL OR LIKELY PRECIPITATION FOR OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT, THEN WE WILL LOWER THE
PROBABILITIES INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE LATE NIGHT PERIOD.

THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY AND NORTHERN
DELAWARE SHOULD BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE, AS WELL. THE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DRIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NIGHT AND THE AREA MAY
EXPAND A BIT. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE THE MENTION OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS FOR OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT WITH A
LIGHT SOUTH TO EAST WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
1000J OF MLCAPE AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR CUES
INTEREST IN CONVECTION FRI AFTN. SREF HAS DECENT PROBS FOR
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY E PA...S NJ AND THE DELMARVA. FOR NOW HAVE
PLAYED THE SHOWER AND TSTM RISK CONSERVATIVELY AND MAINTAINED THE
330 AM THURSDAY FCST POPS FOR FRIDAY...ABOUT 10 PCT BELOW THE
12Z/21 GFS/NAM MOS BLEND.

IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE EASTERLY AS THE
SFC LOW CONSOLIDATES TO THE S OF THE DELMARVA.

FCST BASIS: TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS ARE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/21
GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK
UPPER LOW AND SFC LOW THU NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. SCT SHOWERS AND A
FEW TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS MOST AREAS THU EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...A COUPLE LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SAT MOSTLY
ACROSS THE DELMARVA...SE PA AND SRN NJ. CHC FOR SHOWERS ARE ONLY
IN THE CHC RANGE HOWEVER. A FEW DOWNPOURS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THU
NIGHT WITH THE HIGHER PWATS STILL ACROSS THE SRN AREAS. LOWS THU
NIGHT WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE NORTH AND MID/UPPER
60S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS SAT IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S SOUTH AND LOW TO
MID 70S NORTH. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH IN FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH SAT.

AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS UP TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND
THEN ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE SLOWLY IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER HIGH. THIS WILL PRODUCE
A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR OUR REGION. POPS FOR SAT NIGHT THRU
NEXT WEN NIGHT ARE SUB-15PCT RANGE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUN/MON...NEAR
NORMAL TUE...AND THEN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WED/THU. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL BE COMFORTABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL TREND UP
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENING FROM AROUND KABE AND KTTN NORTHWARD.
PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE
FOR LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. SOME SPOTS COULD FALL TO IFR
DEPENDING UPON THE EXTENT OF ANY STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG
WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THAT TIME.

THE WIND SHOULD BACK FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TO THE EAST
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LESS THAN
10 KNOTS

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU SAT...MOSTLY VFR BUT SCT SHOWERS MAY BRING LOWER
CONDITIONS.

SAT NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
BECOMING EASTERLY FRIDAY.

WE`VE NOT SEEN ANY NEW MAREPS THIS WEEK FROM MARINERS IN OUR EASY
USE (INTERNET AND/OR SMART PHONE) LINK
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/MAROBSFORM THIS HAS BEEN DERIVED FOR THE
MARINER TO EASILY POST INFO INSTANTLY TO THE NWS FOR USE IN OUR
MARINE PRODUCTS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS WITH SCT SHOWERS.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...LOW END SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN.
FAIR WEATHER.

SUN THRU TUE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...IOVINO/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 220140
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
940 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION EXTENDED FROM THE LEHIGH VALLEY UP INTO NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE CONTINUING TO
REGENERATE ALONG REMNANT BOUNDARIES AND THE DISSIPATION PROCESS
SHOULD BE RATHER SLOW FROM THIS POINT ONWARD, ESPECIALLY WITH A
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. WE
WILL FORECAST CATEGORICAL OR LIKELY PRECIPITATION FOR OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT, THEN WE WILL LOWER THE
PROBABILITIES INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE LATE NIGHT PERIOD.

THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY AND NORTHERN
DELAWARE SHOULD BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE, AS WELL. THE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DRIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NIGHT AND THE AREA MAY
EXPAND A BIT. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE THE MENTION OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS FOR OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT WITH A
LIGHT SOUTH TO EAST WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
1000J OF MLCAPE AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR CUES
INTEREST IN CONVECTION FRI AFTN. SREF HAS DECENT PROBS FOR
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY E PA...S NJ AND THE DELMARVA. FOR NOW HAVE
PLAYED THE SHOWER AND TSTM RISK CONSERVATIVELY AND MAINTAINED THE
330 AM THURSDAY FCST POPS FOR FRIDAY...ABOUT 10 PCT BELOW THE
12Z/21 GFS/NAM MOS BLEND.

IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE EASTERLY AS THE
SFC LOW CONSOLIDATES TO THE S OF THE DELMARVA.

FCST BASIS: TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS ARE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/21
GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK
UPPER LOW AND SFC LOW THU NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. SCT SHOWERS AND A
FEW TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS MOST AREAS THU EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...A COUPLE LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SAT MOSTLY
ACROSS THE DELMARVA...SE PA AND SRN NJ. CHC FOR SHOWERS ARE ONLY
IN THE CHC RANGE HOWEVER. A FEW DOWNPOURS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THU
NIGHT WITH THE HIGHER PWATS STILL ACROSS THE SRN AREAS. LOWS THU
NIGHT WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE NORTH AND MID/UPPER
60S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS SAT IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S SOUTH AND LOW TO
MID 70S NORTH. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH IN FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH SAT.

AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS UP TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND
THEN ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE SLOWLY IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER HIGH. THIS WILL PRODUCE
A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR OUR REGION. POPS FOR SAT NIGHT THRU
NEXT WEN NIGHT ARE SUB-15PCT RANGE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUN/MON...NEAR
NORMAL TUE...AND THEN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WED/THU. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL BE COMFORTABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL TREND UP
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENING FROM AROUND KABE AND KTTN NORTHWARD.
PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE
FOR LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. SOME SPOTS COULD FALL TO IFR
DEPENDING UPON THE EXTENT OF ANY STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG
WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THAT TIME.

THE WIND SHOULD BACK FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TO THE EAST
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LESS THAN
10 KNOTS

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU SAT...MOSTLY VFR BUT SCT SHOWERS MAY BRING LOWER
CONDITIONS.

SAT NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
BECOMING EASTERLY FRIDAY.

WE`VE NOT SEEN ANY NEW MAREPS THIS WEEK FROM MARINERS IN OUR EASY
USE (INTERNET AND/OR SMART PHONE) LINK
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/MAROBSFORM THIS HAS BEEN DERIVED FOR THE
MARINER TO EASILY POST INFO INSTANTLY TO THE NWS FOR USE IN OUR
MARINE PRODUCTS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS WITH SCT SHOWERS.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...LOW END SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN.
FAIR WEATHER.

SUN THRU TUE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...IOVINO/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KLWX 220126
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
926 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER NEW
ENGLAND ON FRIDAY AND DRIFT SOUTHWEST...WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW OVER
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
PERSIST OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
DIURNAL DOWNWARD TREND IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. 1000 J/KG
SBCAPE PERSIST EAST OF I-95 WHERE ISO/SCT TSTMS WILL PERSIST UNTIL
AROUND MIDNIGHT. LIGHT WLY/NWLY FLOW AND HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD LIMIT FOG MORE THAN LAST NIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S W OF
I-95...L70S E.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
BNDRY RMNG IN THE AREA FRIDAY WL MOST LKLY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
TSTMS. WL KEEP POPS IN CHC RANGE. AGN SVR THREAT LOOKS LOW - LO
LVL WIND FIELD IS WEAK...CAPE IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. FFG IS
RLTVLY HIGH.

HIGHS IN THE MU80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAX WILL DIP THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER BOUT OF ENHANCED RAINFALL. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL RIDGE DOWN THE EAST COAST AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN US. THE
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING DOWN INTO THE AREA WILL WORK WITH LOW
PRESSURE OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST TO BRING ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING. THE PRIMARY EFFECTS OF THE
INCOMING MARINE AIRMASS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY...SUNDAY
AND MONDAY TO ONLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE MORE OVERHEAD BY MONDAY NIGHT AND ONSHORE
FLOW WILL MOSTLY BE SHUT OFF. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
FILL INTO THE AREA TUESDAY...LEADING TO AN TREND TOWARD MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR 80
ON TUESDAY AND IN THE MID 80S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WITH A
RATHER DRY PROFILE CONVECTION IS UNLIKELY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. THE
NEXT THREAT FOR STORMS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD BE THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT WLY FLOW AND CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP FOG AT BAY TONIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF THUNDERSTORMS. STILL...SOME MVFR VSBYS SHOULD BE EXPECTED.
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE E-CNTRL CONUS.

PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AS AN UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX
CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MARINE AIRMASS SETTLES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SLY FLOW BECOMES WLY FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THEN A BACK DOOR FRONT COMES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A SWITCH TO ELY FLOW THAT PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE WIDEST ZONES OF THE
LOWER MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IN BREEZY EASTERLY FLOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS HAVE DROPPED BELOW HALF A FOOT AS LOW PRESSURE HAS
PUSHED FARTHER AWAY FROM THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE. THERE IS NO
COASTAL FLOODING THREAT WITH HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. A WLY FLOW EARLY
FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER WATER...BUT AN ELY FLOW IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RAISING SOME COASTAL CONCERNS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...JACKSON
PREVIOUS...WOODY!/CEB








000
FXUS61 KLWX 220126
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
926 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER NEW
ENGLAND ON FRIDAY AND DRIFT SOUTHWEST...WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW OVER
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
PERSIST OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
DIURNAL DOWNWARD TREND IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. 1000 J/KG
SBCAPE PERSIST EAST OF I-95 WHERE ISO/SCT TSTMS WILL PERSIST UNTIL
AROUND MIDNIGHT. LIGHT WLY/NWLY FLOW AND HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD LIMIT FOG MORE THAN LAST NIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S W OF
I-95...L70S E.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
BNDRY RMNG IN THE AREA FRIDAY WL MOST LKLY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
TSTMS. WL KEEP POPS IN CHC RANGE. AGN SVR THREAT LOOKS LOW - LO
LVL WIND FIELD IS WEAK...CAPE IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. FFG IS
RLTVLY HIGH.

HIGHS IN THE MU80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAX WILL DIP THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER BOUT OF ENHANCED RAINFALL. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL RIDGE DOWN THE EAST COAST AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN US. THE
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING DOWN INTO THE AREA WILL WORK WITH LOW
PRESSURE OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST TO BRING ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING. THE PRIMARY EFFECTS OF THE
INCOMING MARINE AIRMASS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY...SUNDAY
AND MONDAY TO ONLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE MORE OVERHEAD BY MONDAY NIGHT AND ONSHORE
FLOW WILL MOSTLY BE SHUT OFF. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
FILL INTO THE AREA TUESDAY...LEADING TO AN TREND TOWARD MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR 80
ON TUESDAY AND IN THE MID 80S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WITH A
RATHER DRY PROFILE CONVECTION IS UNLIKELY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. THE
NEXT THREAT FOR STORMS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD BE THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT WLY FLOW AND CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP FOG AT BAY TONIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF THUNDERSTORMS. STILL...SOME MVFR VSBYS SHOULD BE EXPECTED.
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE E-CNTRL CONUS.

PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AS AN UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX
CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MARINE AIRMASS SETTLES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SLY FLOW BECOMES WLY FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THEN A BACK DOOR FRONT COMES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A SWITCH TO ELY FLOW THAT PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE WIDEST ZONES OF THE
LOWER MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IN BREEZY EASTERLY FLOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS HAVE DROPPED BELOW HALF A FOOT AS LOW PRESSURE HAS
PUSHED FARTHER AWAY FROM THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE. THERE IS NO
COASTAL FLOODING THREAT WITH HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. A WLY FLOW EARLY
FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER WATER...BUT AN ELY FLOW IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RAISING SOME COASTAL CONCERNS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...JACKSON
PREVIOUS...WOODY!/CEB









000
FXUS61 KPHI 220012
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
812 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
STABLE AIR WAS CONTINUING TO ADVECT OFF THE OCEAN THIS EVENING.
DEW POINT READINGS WERE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S
IN MUCH OF NEW JERSEY. MEANWHILE, CONDITIONS REMAINED UNSTABLE ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY STABLE DURING THE
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE CONTINUED ONSHORE
FLOW.

WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND INTO
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY.

WE HAVE ADJUSTED THE EVENING THUNDERSTORM FORECAST BASED ON THE
RADAR TRENDS TO INCLUDE AREAS FROM BERKS COUNTY AND UPPER
MONTGOMERY COUNTY DOWN TO THE UPPER EASTERN SHORE OF CHESAPEAKE
BAY.

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT WAS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD AND IT IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT.
AS A RESULT, WE WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT OUR
FORECAST AREA FOR TONIGHT, EVEN AFTER THE THUNDERSTORMS WEAKEN.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT WITH A
LIGHT SOUTH TO EAST WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
1000J OF MLCAPE AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR CUES
INTEREST IN CONVECTION FRI AFTN. SREF HAS DECENT PROBS FOR
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY E PA...S NJ AND THE DELMARVA. FOR NOW HAVE
PLAYED THE SHOWER AND TSTM RISK CONSERVATIVELY AND MAINTAINED THE
330 AM THURSDAY FCST POPS FOR FRIDAY...ABOUT 10 PCT BELOW THE
12Z/21 GFS/NAM MOS BLEND.

IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE EASTERLY AS THE
SFC LOW CONSOLIDATES TO THE S OF THE DELMARVA.

FCST BASIS: TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS ARE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/21
GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK
UPPER LOW AND SFC LOW THU NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. SCT SHOWERS AND A
FEW TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS MOST AREAS THU EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...A COUPLE LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SAT MOSTLY
ACROSS THE DELMARVA...SE PA AND SRN NJ. CHC FOR SHOWERS ARE ONLY
IN THE CHC RANGE HOWEVER. A FEW DOWNPOURS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THU
NIGHT WITH THE HIGHER PWATS STILL ACROSS THE SRN AREAS. LOWS THU
NIGHT WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE NORTH AND MID/UPPER
60S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS SAT IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S SOUTH AND LOW TO
MID 70S NORTH. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH IN FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH SAT.

AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS UP TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND
THEN ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE SLOWLY IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER HIGH. THIS WILL PRODUCE
A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR OUR REGION. POPS FOR SAT NIGHT THRU
NEXT WEN NIGHT ARE SUB-15PCT RANGE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUN/MON...NEAR
NORMAL TUE...AND THEN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WED/THU. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL BE COMFORTABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL TREND UP
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR TONIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENING TO THE NORTH OF KABE
AND KTTN AND TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF KPHL AND KILG, INCLUDING
THE KRDG AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GENERALLY VFR THROUGH 0600Z
EXCEPT THEY MAY LOWER TO MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. SOME SPOTS COULD FALL TO IFR DEPENDING UPON THE
EXTENT OF ANY STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT THAT TIME.

THE WIND SHOULD BACK FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TO THE EAST
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LESS THAN
10 KNOTS

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU SAT...MOSTLY VFR BUT SCT SHOWERS MAY BRING LOWER
CONDITIONS.

SAT NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
BECOMING EASTERLY FRIDAY.

WE`VE NOT SEEN ANY NEW MAREPS THIS WEEK FROM MARINERS IN OUR EASY
USE (INTERNET AND/OR SMART PHONE) LINK
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/MAROBSFORM THIS HAS BEEN DERIVED FOR THE
MARINER TO EASILY POST INFO INSTANTLY TO THE NWS FOR USE IN OUR
MARINE PRODUCTS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS WITH SCT SHOWERS.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...LOW END SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN.
FAIR WEATHER.

SUN THRU TUE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE RCD INQUIRY ON HOW THE CLIMATE PROGRAM SELECTS FOR OUR 530 PM
CLI. OUR PROGRAM SEARCHES MAX/MIN TEMP DATA FOR THE DAY ENDING 5PM
SHARP. THAT DATA IS INGESTED INTO THE 530 PM POSTED CLI. IF A MAX
TEMP OCCURS THEREAFTER...IT IS REFLECTED IN THE END OF DAY SUMMARY
POSTS AROUND 230 AM EDT THE NEXT DAY AND ALSO YOU CAN CHECK THE 8
PM RTPPHI WHICH POSTS AROUND 815 PM EDT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...IOVINO/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
CLIMATE...DRAG






000
FXUS61 KPHI 220012
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
812 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
STABLE AIR WAS CONTINUING TO ADVECT OFF THE OCEAN THIS EVENING.
DEW POINT READINGS WERE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S
IN MUCH OF NEW JERSEY. MEANWHILE, CONDITIONS REMAINED UNSTABLE ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY STABLE DURING THE
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE CONTINUED ONSHORE
FLOW.

WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND INTO
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY.

WE HAVE ADJUSTED THE EVENING THUNDERSTORM FORECAST BASED ON THE
RADAR TRENDS TO INCLUDE AREAS FROM BERKS COUNTY AND UPPER
MONTGOMERY COUNTY DOWN TO THE UPPER EASTERN SHORE OF CHESAPEAKE
BAY.

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT WAS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD AND IT IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT.
AS A RESULT, WE WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT OUR
FORECAST AREA FOR TONIGHT, EVEN AFTER THE THUNDERSTORMS WEAKEN.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT WITH A
LIGHT SOUTH TO EAST WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
1000J OF MLCAPE AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR CUES
INTEREST IN CONVECTION FRI AFTN. SREF HAS DECENT PROBS FOR
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY E PA...S NJ AND THE DELMARVA. FOR NOW HAVE
PLAYED THE SHOWER AND TSTM RISK CONSERVATIVELY AND MAINTAINED THE
330 AM THURSDAY FCST POPS FOR FRIDAY...ABOUT 10 PCT BELOW THE
12Z/21 GFS/NAM MOS BLEND.

IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE EASTERLY AS THE
SFC LOW CONSOLIDATES TO THE S OF THE DELMARVA.

FCST BASIS: TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS ARE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/21
GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK
UPPER LOW AND SFC LOW THU NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. SCT SHOWERS AND A
FEW TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS MOST AREAS THU EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...A COUPLE LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SAT MOSTLY
ACROSS THE DELMARVA...SE PA AND SRN NJ. CHC FOR SHOWERS ARE ONLY
IN THE CHC RANGE HOWEVER. A FEW DOWNPOURS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THU
NIGHT WITH THE HIGHER PWATS STILL ACROSS THE SRN AREAS. LOWS THU
NIGHT WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE NORTH AND MID/UPPER
60S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS SAT IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S SOUTH AND LOW TO
MID 70S NORTH. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH IN FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH SAT.

AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS UP TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND
THEN ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE SLOWLY IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER HIGH. THIS WILL PRODUCE
A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR OUR REGION. POPS FOR SAT NIGHT THRU
NEXT WEN NIGHT ARE SUB-15PCT RANGE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUN/MON...NEAR
NORMAL TUE...AND THEN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WED/THU. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL BE COMFORTABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL TREND UP
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR TONIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENING TO THE NORTH OF KABE
AND KTTN AND TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF KPHL AND KILG, INCLUDING
THE KRDG AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GENERALLY VFR THROUGH 0600Z
EXCEPT THEY MAY LOWER TO MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. SOME SPOTS COULD FALL TO IFR DEPENDING UPON THE
EXTENT OF ANY STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT THAT TIME.

THE WIND SHOULD BACK FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TO THE EAST
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LESS THAN
10 KNOTS

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU SAT...MOSTLY VFR BUT SCT SHOWERS MAY BRING LOWER
CONDITIONS.

SAT NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
BECOMING EASTERLY FRIDAY.

WE`VE NOT SEEN ANY NEW MAREPS THIS WEEK FROM MARINERS IN OUR EASY
USE (INTERNET AND/OR SMART PHONE) LINK
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/MAROBSFORM THIS HAS BEEN DERIVED FOR THE
MARINER TO EASILY POST INFO INSTANTLY TO THE NWS FOR USE IN OUR
MARINE PRODUCTS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS WITH SCT SHOWERS.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...LOW END SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN.
FAIR WEATHER.

SUN THRU TUE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE RCD INQUIRY ON HOW THE CLIMATE PROGRAM SELECTS FOR OUR 530 PM
CLI. OUR PROGRAM SEARCHES MAX/MIN TEMP DATA FOR THE DAY ENDING 5PM
SHARP. THAT DATA IS INGESTED INTO THE 530 PM POSTED CLI. IF A MAX
TEMP OCCURS THEREAFTER...IT IS REFLECTED IN THE END OF DAY SUMMARY
POSTS AROUND 230 AM EDT THE NEXT DAY AND ALSO YOU CAN CHECK THE 8
PM RTPPHI WHICH POSTS AROUND 815 PM EDT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...IOVINO/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
CLIMATE...DRAG







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 212357
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
757 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND IS SLOW TO
BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK BROAD LOW PRESSURE IN
VICINITY OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH A BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM
E-CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER PA AHEAD OF A
~100KT UPPER JET DIVING ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES. SPC MESOANALYSIS
INDICATES 35-40KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM SE PA THROUGH THE LOWER MD
ERN SHORE ALONG WITH AN AXIS OF 1500J/KG OF MLCAPE. THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE ERN SHORE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE JET DIVES SE. A FEW STRONGER
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BASED ON FAVORABLE DYNAMIC AND THERMODYNAMIC
PARAMETERS...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE RATHER WEAK LAPSE RATES. OTHERWISE...A
CHC (30-40%) OF GENERAL THUNDER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER
JET ENERGY PASSES OVER THE AREA AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS IN
PLACE. LESS FOG IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID/UPPER NW FLOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. A
MORE VIGOROUS WAVE DROPS THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE BEST CHC OF AND GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD DUE
TO MORE FAVORABLE/STRONGER UPPER JET SUPPORT. POCKETS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN MODEST MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE UPPER
SUPPORT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND SLOWLY
PUSHES INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUSH THE REMNANT FRONT S
OF THE AREA. CHC POPS WILL CONTINUE EARLY SATURDAY...WITH A STEADY
DRYING TREND COMMENCING SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM NNE-SSW AS THE HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY 85-90...AND THEN FROM THE LOW TO MID
80S SATURDAY (UPPER 70S ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES)...WITH UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S SUNDAY. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
SATURDAY...AND IN THE 60S SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF MAINLY NE FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH RIDGES SOUTH WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EMERGES FROM THE BAHAMAS. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A COOLER
MARITIME AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BEGIN TO CENTER THEMSELVES OVER
THE FA. AT THIS POINT SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL AND WILL HELP TO DRY
THE ATMOSPHERE. PRECIP ALONG THE VA/NC COAST CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT DUE TO THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE NORTH AS THE SURFACE LOW
FORMS TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY IN REGARDS TO
THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. AND
DUE TO THE LARGE DEGREE OF CHANGE IN MODEL RUNS...AT THIS POINT...
WILL NOT MODIFY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TOO MUCH.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 MON AND TUES...WARMING SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID 80S
WED AND THUR. SEASONAL LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE LIKELY
AS THE MARITIME AIRMASS WILL LIMIT SIGNIFICANT OVERNIGHT COOLING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 23Z...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR WASHINGTON DC THROUGH
EASTERN VIRGINIA (BETWEEN RICHMOND AND HAMPTON ROADS) AND INTO
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. WINDS WERE MAINLY FROM THE W/SW WEST OF THE
BOUNDARY AND FROM THE E/SE TO THE EAST OF IT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE COAST OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP JUST OFF THE
COAST FRIDAY WHICH WOULD HELP SHIFT THE WINDS BRIEFLY TO NW/N DURING
THE DAY.

WIDELY SCT TSTMS WERE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BUT NONE WERE A
THEREAT TO THE TAF SITES. A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN MAY AFFECT SOME
LOCATIONS LATER THIS EVENING. SBY HAS A T/TD SPREAD OF AROUND 5
DEGREES AND WITH RAIN HAVING FALLEN LATE THURSDAY...THERE MAY BE
SOME MVFR/IFR FOG THERE. AN OVERCAST HIGH CEILING SHOULD LIMIT FOG
FORMATION AT ALL LOCATIONS AND PRESENTLY NONE IS FORECAST AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES.

FRIDAY SHOULD BE A DRY AT THE BEGINNING BUT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE MAY BRING A ROUND OF TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER FORECAST BEGINNING SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR DUE TO STRATUS OR FOG
WILL BE A POTENTIAL A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT IS CURRENTLY
POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
THIS WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AFTN.
EARLY SAT MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH FROM THE NORTHEASTERN
US CAUSING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. ENERGY
STREAMING SE WILL HELP FORM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL ENHANCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE WATERS CAUSING NEAR SCA WIND GUST OVER THE BAY(18-20KT) AND THE
COASTAL WATERS(23-25KT) ON SATURDAY. DUE TO THE WIND DIRECTION AND
FETCH...EXPECT WAVES TO BUILD TO 4-6FT ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS LASTING EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO POSITION OVER THE AREA BY TUESDAY BUT LOW PRESSURE
EMERGING FROM THE SOUTH MAY HELP TO MAINTAIN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH WED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ099.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...DAP






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 212357
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
757 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND IS SLOW TO
BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK BROAD LOW PRESSURE IN
VICINITY OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH A BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM
E-CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER PA AHEAD OF A
~100KT UPPER JET DIVING ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES. SPC MESOANALYSIS
INDICATES 35-40KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM SE PA THROUGH THE LOWER MD
ERN SHORE ALONG WITH AN AXIS OF 1500J/KG OF MLCAPE. THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE ERN SHORE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE JET DIVES SE. A FEW STRONGER
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BASED ON FAVORABLE DYNAMIC AND THERMODYNAMIC
PARAMETERS...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE RATHER WEAK LAPSE RATES. OTHERWISE...A
CHC (30-40%) OF GENERAL THUNDER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER
JET ENERGY PASSES OVER THE AREA AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS IN
PLACE. LESS FOG IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID/UPPER NW FLOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. A
MORE VIGOROUS WAVE DROPS THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE BEST CHC OF AND GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD DUE
TO MORE FAVORABLE/STRONGER UPPER JET SUPPORT. POCKETS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN MODEST MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE UPPER
SUPPORT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND SLOWLY
PUSHES INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUSH THE REMNANT FRONT S
OF THE AREA. CHC POPS WILL CONTINUE EARLY SATURDAY...WITH A STEADY
DRYING TREND COMMENCING SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM NNE-SSW AS THE HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY 85-90...AND THEN FROM THE LOW TO MID
80S SATURDAY (UPPER 70S ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES)...WITH UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S SUNDAY. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
SATURDAY...AND IN THE 60S SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF MAINLY NE FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH RIDGES SOUTH WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EMERGES FROM THE BAHAMAS. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A COOLER
MARITIME AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BEGIN TO CENTER THEMSELVES OVER
THE FA. AT THIS POINT SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL AND WILL HELP TO DRY
THE ATMOSPHERE. PRECIP ALONG THE VA/NC COAST CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT DUE TO THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE NORTH AS THE SURFACE LOW
FORMS TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY IN REGARDS TO
THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. AND
DUE TO THE LARGE DEGREE OF CHANGE IN MODEL RUNS...AT THIS POINT...
WILL NOT MODIFY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TOO MUCH.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 MON AND TUES...WARMING SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID 80S
WED AND THUR. SEASONAL LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE LIKELY
AS THE MARITIME AIRMASS WILL LIMIT SIGNIFICANT OVERNIGHT COOLING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 23Z...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR WASHINGTON DC THROUGH
EASTERN VIRGINIA (BETWEEN RICHMOND AND HAMPTON ROADS) AND INTO
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. WINDS WERE MAINLY FROM THE W/SW WEST OF THE
BOUNDARY AND FROM THE E/SE TO THE EAST OF IT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE COAST OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP JUST OFF THE
COAST FRIDAY WHICH WOULD HELP SHIFT THE WINDS BRIEFLY TO NW/N DURING
THE DAY.

WIDELY SCT TSTMS WERE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BUT NONE WERE A
THEREAT TO THE TAF SITES. A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN MAY AFFECT SOME
LOCATIONS LATER THIS EVENING. SBY HAS A T/TD SPREAD OF AROUND 5
DEGREES AND WITH RAIN HAVING FALLEN LATE THURSDAY...THERE MAY BE
SOME MVFR/IFR FOG THERE. AN OVERCAST HIGH CEILING SHOULD LIMIT FOG
FORMATION AT ALL LOCATIONS AND PRESENTLY NONE IS FORECAST AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES.

FRIDAY SHOULD BE A DRY AT THE BEGINNING BUT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE MAY BRING A ROUND OF TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER FORECAST BEGINNING SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR DUE TO STRATUS OR FOG
WILL BE A POTENTIAL A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT IS CURRENTLY
POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
THIS WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AFTN.
EARLY SAT MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH FROM THE NORTHEASTERN
US CAUSING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. ENERGY
STREAMING SE WILL HELP FORM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL ENHANCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE WATERS CAUSING NEAR SCA WIND GUST OVER THE BAY(18-20KT) AND THE
COASTAL WATERS(23-25KT) ON SATURDAY. DUE TO THE WIND DIRECTION AND
FETCH...EXPECT WAVES TO BUILD TO 4-6FT ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS LASTING EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO POSITION OVER THE AREA BY TUESDAY BUT LOW PRESSURE
EMERGING FROM THE SOUTH MAY HELP TO MAINTAIN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH WED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ099.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...DAP







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 212350 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
750 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
745PM UPDATE...ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED WITH THE SHORTWAVE EXITING
AND THE SUN SETTING. HAVE RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
STILL WILL NEED TO KEEP IN POPS ACROSS THE NORTH FOR THE EVENING...
AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITH THE FLOW COMING OFF THE LAKE.
FOCUS WILL BE ON DEVELOPING MCS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA. MODELS
WANT TO KEEP THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST SO WILL FOLLOW
THAT IDEA. TEMPS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO LATEST GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL
WAVE IS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. ADDED LIKELY POPS
TO THE NORTH AS UPPER WAVE PASSES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AMPLE CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS PITTSBURGH AND SOUTH.
HENCE...OPTIMAL DAYTIME HEATING WILL NOT OCCUR IN THAT
REGION...HOWEVER...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL AID IN INSTABILITY
YIELDING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TO THE NORTH...SUFFICIENT
HEATING DUE TO LESS CLOUDS HAVE RAMPED UP INSTABILITY. RAP
ANALYSIS SHOWS RELATIVELY STRONGER SHEAR IN THIS ZONE AS WELL.
THEREFORE...ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF PITTSBURGH.

GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WANE LATER IN THE
EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING. SOME SHOWERS MAY STILL LINGER
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE
BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION FROM A WEAKENING AND
EXITING UPPER LOW...AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SHIFT EAST ON
FRIDAY AS THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE. UNCERTAINTY STILL
EXISTS FOR ANY FLOODING AS MODELS ARE IN MINOR DISAGREEMENT FOR
THE PLACEMENT OF HEAVY RAIN. USED MODEL BLEND OF GFS/NAM FOR POPS
AND HPC FOR QPF.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A FEW SHORTWAVES TOPPING THE RIDGE
BRINGS THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AT LEAST FOR
SATURDAY BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE SMALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MORE CLARITY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH THE LATEST ROUND
OF MODEL GUIDANCE. UPPER RIDGE BUILDING NORTH WILL WORK TO DEFLECT
AN ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN AT OR EVEN JUST ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER OUT IN TIME THAN USUAL...NO EFFECTS
ARE EXPECTED LOCALLY FROM ANYTHING THAT MAY DEVELOP IN THE TROPICS.
TAX/TG

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH THE RISK FOR MVFR/IFR FOG
AND CIGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. STILL SEEING SOME AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS THAT NEVER LEFT FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY. WILL GO WITH GENERAL
VFR EARLY THEN DETERIORATE CONDITIONS LATER. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
MOVE BACK IN FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 212350 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
750 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
745PM UPDATE...ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED WITH THE SHORTWAVE EXITING
AND THE SUN SETTING. HAVE RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
STILL WILL NEED TO KEEP IN POPS ACROSS THE NORTH FOR THE EVENING...
AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITH THE FLOW COMING OFF THE LAKE.
FOCUS WILL BE ON DEVELOPING MCS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA. MODELS
WANT TO KEEP THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST SO WILL FOLLOW
THAT IDEA. TEMPS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO LATEST GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL
WAVE IS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. ADDED LIKELY POPS
TO THE NORTH AS UPPER WAVE PASSES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AMPLE CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS PITTSBURGH AND SOUTH.
HENCE...OPTIMAL DAYTIME HEATING WILL NOT OCCUR IN THAT
REGION...HOWEVER...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL AID IN INSTABILITY
YIELDING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TO THE NORTH...SUFFICIENT
HEATING DUE TO LESS CLOUDS HAVE RAMPED UP INSTABILITY. RAP
ANALYSIS SHOWS RELATIVELY STRONGER SHEAR IN THIS ZONE AS WELL.
THEREFORE...ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF PITTSBURGH.

GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WANE LATER IN THE
EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING. SOME SHOWERS MAY STILL LINGER
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE
BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION FROM A WEAKENING AND
EXITING UPPER LOW...AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SHIFT EAST ON
FRIDAY AS THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE. UNCERTAINTY STILL
EXISTS FOR ANY FLOODING AS MODELS ARE IN MINOR DISAGREEMENT FOR
THE PLACEMENT OF HEAVY RAIN. USED MODEL BLEND OF GFS/NAM FOR POPS
AND HPC FOR QPF.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A FEW SHORTWAVES TOPPING THE RIDGE
BRINGS THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AT LEAST FOR
SATURDAY BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE SMALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MORE CLARITY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH THE LATEST ROUND
OF MODEL GUIDANCE. UPPER RIDGE BUILDING NORTH WILL WORK TO DEFLECT
AN ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN AT OR EVEN JUST ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER OUT IN TIME THAN USUAL...NO EFFECTS
ARE EXPECTED LOCALLY FROM ANYTHING THAT MAY DEVELOP IN THE TROPICS.
TAX/TG

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH THE RISK FOR MVFR/IFR FOG
AND CIGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. STILL SEEING SOME AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS THAT NEVER LEFT FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY. WILL GO WITH GENERAL
VFR EARLY THEN DETERIORATE CONDITIONS LATER. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
MOVE BACK IN FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 212350 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
750 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
745PM UPDATE...ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED WITH THE SHORTWAVE EXITING
AND THE SUN SETTING. HAVE RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
STILL WILL NEED TO KEEP IN POPS ACROSS THE NORTH FOR THE EVENING...
AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITH THE FLOW COMING OFF THE LAKE.
FOCUS WILL BE ON DEVELOPING MCS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA. MODELS
WANT TO KEEP THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST SO WILL FOLLOW
THAT IDEA. TEMPS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO LATEST GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL
WAVE IS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. ADDED LIKELY POPS
TO THE NORTH AS UPPER WAVE PASSES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AMPLE CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS PITTSBURGH AND SOUTH.
HENCE...OPTIMAL DAYTIME HEATING WILL NOT OCCUR IN THAT
REGION...HOWEVER...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL AID IN INSTABILITY
YIELDING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TO THE NORTH...SUFFICIENT
HEATING DUE TO LESS CLOUDS HAVE RAMPED UP INSTABILITY. RAP
ANALYSIS SHOWS RELATIVELY STRONGER SHEAR IN THIS ZONE AS WELL.
THEREFORE...ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF PITTSBURGH.

GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WANE LATER IN THE
EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING. SOME SHOWERS MAY STILL LINGER
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE
BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION FROM A WEAKENING AND
EXITING UPPER LOW...AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SHIFT EAST ON
FRIDAY AS THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE. UNCERTAINTY STILL
EXISTS FOR ANY FLOODING AS MODELS ARE IN MINOR DISAGREEMENT FOR
THE PLACEMENT OF HEAVY RAIN. USED MODEL BLEND OF GFS/NAM FOR POPS
AND HPC FOR QPF.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A FEW SHORTWAVES TOPPING THE RIDGE
BRINGS THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AT LEAST FOR
SATURDAY BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE SMALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MORE CLARITY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH THE LATEST ROUND
OF MODEL GUIDANCE. UPPER RIDGE BUILDING NORTH WILL WORK TO DEFLECT
AN ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN AT OR EVEN JUST ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER OUT IN TIME THAN USUAL...NO EFFECTS
ARE EXPECTED LOCALLY FROM ANYTHING THAT MAY DEVELOP IN THE TROPICS.
TAX/TG

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH THE RISK FOR MVFR/IFR FOG
AND CIGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. STILL SEEING SOME AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS THAT NEVER LEFT FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY. WILL GO WITH GENERAL
VFR EARLY THEN DETERIORATE CONDITIONS LATER. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
MOVE BACK IN FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 212350 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
750 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
745PM UPDATE...ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED WITH THE SHORTWAVE EXITING
AND THE SUN SETTING. HAVE RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
STILL WILL NEED TO KEEP IN POPS ACROSS THE NORTH FOR THE EVENING...
AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITH THE FLOW COMING OFF THE LAKE.
FOCUS WILL BE ON DEVELOPING MCS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA. MODELS
WANT TO KEEP THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST SO WILL FOLLOW
THAT IDEA. TEMPS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO LATEST GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL
WAVE IS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. ADDED LIKELY POPS
TO THE NORTH AS UPPER WAVE PASSES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AMPLE CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS PITTSBURGH AND SOUTH.
HENCE...OPTIMAL DAYTIME HEATING WILL NOT OCCUR IN THAT
REGION...HOWEVER...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL AID IN INSTABILITY
YIELDING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TO THE NORTH...SUFFICIENT
HEATING DUE TO LESS CLOUDS HAVE RAMPED UP INSTABILITY. RAP
ANALYSIS SHOWS RELATIVELY STRONGER SHEAR IN THIS ZONE AS WELL.
THEREFORE...ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF PITTSBURGH.

GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WANE LATER IN THE
EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING. SOME SHOWERS MAY STILL LINGER
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE
BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION FROM A WEAKENING AND
EXITING UPPER LOW...AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SHIFT EAST ON
FRIDAY AS THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE. UNCERTAINTY STILL
EXISTS FOR ANY FLOODING AS MODELS ARE IN MINOR DISAGREEMENT FOR
THE PLACEMENT OF HEAVY RAIN. USED MODEL BLEND OF GFS/NAM FOR POPS
AND HPC FOR QPF.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A FEW SHORTWAVES TOPPING THE RIDGE
BRINGS THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AT LEAST FOR
SATURDAY BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE SMALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MORE CLARITY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH THE LATEST ROUND
OF MODEL GUIDANCE. UPPER RIDGE BUILDING NORTH WILL WORK TO DEFLECT
AN ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN AT OR EVEN JUST ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER OUT IN TIME THAN USUAL...NO EFFECTS
ARE EXPECTED LOCALLY FROM ANYTHING THAT MAY DEVELOP IN THE TROPICS.
TAX/TG

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH THE RISK FOR MVFR/IFR FOG
AND CIGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. STILL SEEING SOME AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS THAT NEVER LEFT FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY. WILL GO WITH GENERAL
VFR EARLY THEN DETERIORATE CONDITIONS LATER. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
MOVE BACK IN FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPHI 212245
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
645 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
STABLE AIR WAS CONTINUING TO ADVECT OFF THE OCEAN EARLY THIS
EVENING. DEW POINT READINGS WERE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S IN NEW JERSEY. MEANWHILE, CONDITIONS REMAINED UNSTABLE
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY STABLE DURING THE
EVENING WITH THE GRADUAL LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW. WE HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE
THE THUNDERSTORMS FROM ALL BUT TWO AREAS.

WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND INTO
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. THERE MAY BE SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
THERE, AS WELL. ALSO, WE WILL MAINTAIN THE EVENING THUNDERSTORM
FORECAST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN NORTHEASTERN
MARYLAND AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE AS SOME OF THE
CONVECTION IN THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY MAY SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THAT AREA.

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT WAS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD AND IT IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT.
AS A RESULT, WE WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT OUR
FORECAST AREA FOR TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT WITH A
LIGHT SOUTH TO EAST WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
1000J OF MLCAPE AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR CUES
INTEREST IN CONVECTION FRI AFTN. SREF HAS DECENT PROBS FOR
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY E PA...S NJ AND THE DELMARVA. FOR NOW HAVE
PLAYED THE SHOWER AND TSTM RISK CONSERVATIVELY AND MAINTAINED THE
330 AM THURSDAY FCST POPS FOR FRIDAY...ABOUT 10 PCT BELOW THE
12Z/21 GFS/NAM MOS BLEND.

IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE EASTERLY AS THE
SFC LOW CONSOLIDATES TO THE S OF THE DELMARVA.

FCST BASIS: TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS ARE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/21
GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK
UPPER LOW AND SFC LOW THU NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. SCT SHOWERS AND A
FEW TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS MOST AREAS THU EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...A COUPLE LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SAT MOSTLY
ACROSS THE DELMARVA...SE PA AND SRN NJ. CHC FOR SHOWERS ARE ONLY
IN THE CHC RANGE HOWEVER. A FEW DOWNPOURS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THU
NIGHT WITH THE HIGHER PWATS STILL ACROSS THE SRN AREAS. LOWS THU
NIGHT WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE NORTH AND MID/UPPER
60S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS SAT IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S SOUTH AND LOW TO
MID 70S NORTH. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH IN FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH SAT.

AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS UP TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND
THEN ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE SLOWLY IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER HIGH. THIS WILL PRODUCE
A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR OUR REGION. POPS FOR SAT NIGHT THRU
NEXT WEN NIGHT ARE SUB-15PCT RANGE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUN/MON...NEAR
NORMAL TUE...AND THEN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WED/THU. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL BE COMFORTABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL TREND UP
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR TONIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENING TO THE NORTH OF KABE
AND KTTN AND TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF KPHL AND KILG.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GENERALLY VFR THROUGH 0400Z EXCEPT THEY MAY
LOWER TO MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. SOME SPOTS COULD FALL TO IFR DEPENDING UPON THE
EXTENT OF ANY STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT THAT TIME.

THE WIND SHOULD BACK FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TO THE EAST
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LESS THAN
10 KNOTS

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU SAT...MOSTLY VFR BUT SCT SHOWERS MAY BRING LOWER
CONDITIONS.

SAT NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
BECOMING EASTERLY FRIDAY.

WE`VE NOT SEEN ANY NEW MAREPS THIS WEEK FROM MARINERS IN OUR EASY
USE (INTERNET AND/OR SMART PHONE) LINK
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/MAROBSFORM THIS HAS BEEN DERIVED FOR THE
MARINER TO EASILY POST INFO INSTANTLY TO THE NWS FOR USE IN OUR
MARINE PRODUCTS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS WITH SCT SHOWERS.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...LOW END SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN.
FAIR WEATHER.

SUN THRU TUE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE RCD INQUIRY ON HOW THE CLIMATE PROGRAM SELECTS FOR OUR 530 PM
CLI. OUR PROGRAM SEARCHES MAX/MIN TEMP DATA FOR THE DAY ENDING 5PM
SHARP. THAT DATA IS INGESTED INTO THE 530 PM POSTED CLI. IF A MAX
TEMP OCCURS THEREAFTER...IT IS REFLECTED IN THE END OF DAY SUMMARY
POSTS AROUND 230 AM EDT THE NEXT DAY AND ALSO YOU CAN CHECK THE 8
PM RTPPHI WHICH POSTS AROUND 815 PM EDT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...IOVINO/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
CLIMATE...DRAG







000
FXUS61 KPHI 212245
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
645 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
STABLE AIR WAS CONTINUING TO ADVECT OFF THE OCEAN EARLY THIS
EVENING. DEW POINT READINGS WERE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S IN NEW JERSEY. MEANWHILE, CONDITIONS REMAINED UNSTABLE
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY STABLE DURING THE
EVENING WITH THE GRADUAL LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW. WE HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE
THE THUNDERSTORMS FROM ALL BUT TWO AREAS.

WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND INTO
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. THERE MAY BE SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
THERE, AS WELL. ALSO, WE WILL MAINTAIN THE EVENING THUNDERSTORM
FORECAST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN NORTHEASTERN
MARYLAND AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE AS SOME OF THE
CONVECTION IN THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY MAY SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THAT AREA.

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT WAS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD AND IT IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT.
AS A RESULT, WE WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT OUR
FORECAST AREA FOR TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT WITH A
LIGHT SOUTH TO EAST WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
1000J OF MLCAPE AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR CUES
INTEREST IN CONVECTION FRI AFTN. SREF HAS DECENT PROBS FOR
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY E PA...S NJ AND THE DELMARVA. FOR NOW HAVE
PLAYED THE SHOWER AND TSTM RISK CONSERVATIVELY AND MAINTAINED THE
330 AM THURSDAY FCST POPS FOR FRIDAY...ABOUT 10 PCT BELOW THE
12Z/21 GFS/NAM MOS BLEND.

IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE EASTERLY AS THE
SFC LOW CONSOLIDATES TO THE S OF THE DELMARVA.

FCST BASIS: TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS ARE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/21
GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK
UPPER LOW AND SFC LOW THU NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. SCT SHOWERS AND A
FEW TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS MOST AREAS THU EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...A COUPLE LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SAT MOSTLY
ACROSS THE DELMARVA...SE PA AND SRN NJ. CHC FOR SHOWERS ARE ONLY
IN THE CHC RANGE HOWEVER. A FEW DOWNPOURS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THU
NIGHT WITH THE HIGHER PWATS STILL ACROSS THE SRN AREAS. LOWS THU
NIGHT WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE NORTH AND MID/UPPER
60S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS SAT IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S SOUTH AND LOW TO
MID 70S NORTH. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH IN FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH SAT.

AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS UP TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND
THEN ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE SLOWLY IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER HIGH. THIS WILL PRODUCE
A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR OUR REGION. POPS FOR SAT NIGHT THRU
NEXT WEN NIGHT ARE SUB-15PCT RANGE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUN/MON...NEAR
NORMAL TUE...AND THEN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WED/THU. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL BE COMFORTABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL TREND UP
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR TONIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENING TO THE NORTH OF KABE
AND KTTN AND TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF KPHL AND KILG.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GENERALLY VFR THROUGH 0400Z EXCEPT THEY MAY
LOWER TO MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. SOME SPOTS COULD FALL TO IFR DEPENDING UPON THE
EXTENT OF ANY STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT THAT TIME.

THE WIND SHOULD BACK FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TO THE EAST
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LESS THAN
10 KNOTS

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU SAT...MOSTLY VFR BUT SCT SHOWERS MAY BRING LOWER
CONDITIONS.

SAT NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
BECOMING EASTERLY FRIDAY.

WE`VE NOT SEEN ANY NEW MAREPS THIS WEEK FROM MARINERS IN OUR EASY
USE (INTERNET AND/OR SMART PHONE) LINK
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/MAROBSFORM THIS HAS BEEN DERIVED FOR THE
MARINER TO EASILY POST INFO INSTANTLY TO THE NWS FOR USE IN OUR
MARINE PRODUCTS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS WITH SCT SHOWERS.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...LOW END SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN.
FAIR WEATHER.

SUN THRU TUE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE RCD INQUIRY ON HOW THE CLIMATE PROGRAM SELECTS FOR OUR 530 PM
CLI. OUR PROGRAM SEARCHES MAX/MIN TEMP DATA FOR THE DAY ENDING 5PM
SHARP. THAT DATA IS INGESTED INTO THE 530 PM POSTED CLI. IF A MAX
TEMP OCCURS THEREAFTER...IT IS REFLECTED IN THE END OF DAY SUMMARY
POSTS AROUND 230 AM EDT THE NEXT DAY AND ALSO YOU CAN CHECK THE 8
PM RTPPHI WHICH POSTS AROUND 815 PM EDT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...IOVINO/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
CLIMATE...DRAG







000
FXUS61 KPHI 212245
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
645 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
STABLE AIR WAS CONTINUING TO ADVECT OFF THE OCEAN EARLY THIS
EVENING. DEW POINT READINGS WERE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S IN NEW JERSEY. MEANWHILE, CONDITIONS REMAINED UNSTABLE
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY STABLE DURING THE
EVENING WITH THE GRADUAL LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW. WE HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE
THE THUNDERSTORMS FROM ALL BUT TWO AREAS.

WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND INTO
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. THERE MAY BE SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
THERE, AS WELL. ALSO, WE WILL MAINTAIN THE EVENING THUNDERSTORM
FORECAST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN NORTHEASTERN
MARYLAND AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE AS SOME OF THE
CONVECTION IN THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY MAY SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THAT AREA.

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT WAS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD AND IT IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT.
AS A RESULT, WE WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT OUR
FORECAST AREA FOR TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT WITH A
LIGHT SOUTH TO EAST WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
1000J OF MLCAPE AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR CUES
INTEREST IN CONVECTION FRI AFTN. SREF HAS DECENT PROBS FOR
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY E PA...S NJ AND THE DELMARVA. FOR NOW HAVE
PLAYED THE SHOWER AND TSTM RISK CONSERVATIVELY AND MAINTAINED THE
330 AM THURSDAY FCST POPS FOR FRIDAY...ABOUT 10 PCT BELOW THE
12Z/21 GFS/NAM MOS BLEND.

IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE EASTERLY AS THE
SFC LOW CONSOLIDATES TO THE S OF THE DELMARVA.

FCST BASIS: TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS ARE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/21
GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK
UPPER LOW AND SFC LOW THU NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. SCT SHOWERS AND A
FEW TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS MOST AREAS THU EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...A COUPLE LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SAT MOSTLY
ACROSS THE DELMARVA...SE PA AND SRN NJ. CHC FOR SHOWERS ARE ONLY
IN THE CHC RANGE HOWEVER. A FEW DOWNPOURS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THU
NIGHT WITH THE HIGHER PWATS STILL ACROSS THE SRN AREAS. LOWS THU
NIGHT WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE NORTH AND MID/UPPER
60S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS SAT IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S SOUTH AND LOW TO
MID 70S NORTH. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH IN FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH SAT.

AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS UP TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND
THEN ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE SLOWLY IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER HIGH. THIS WILL PRODUCE
A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR OUR REGION. POPS FOR SAT NIGHT THRU
NEXT WEN NIGHT ARE SUB-15PCT RANGE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUN/MON...NEAR
NORMAL TUE...AND THEN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WED/THU. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL BE COMFORTABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL TREND UP
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR TONIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENING TO THE NORTH OF KABE
AND KTTN AND TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF KPHL AND KILG.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GENERALLY VFR THROUGH 0400Z EXCEPT THEY MAY
LOWER TO MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. SOME SPOTS COULD FALL TO IFR DEPENDING UPON THE
EXTENT OF ANY STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT THAT TIME.

THE WIND SHOULD BACK FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TO THE EAST
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LESS THAN
10 KNOTS

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU SAT...MOSTLY VFR BUT SCT SHOWERS MAY BRING LOWER
CONDITIONS.

SAT NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
BECOMING EASTERLY FRIDAY.

WE`VE NOT SEEN ANY NEW MAREPS THIS WEEK FROM MARINERS IN OUR EASY
USE (INTERNET AND/OR SMART PHONE) LINK
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/MAROBSFORM THIS HAS BEEN DERIVED FOR THE
MARINER TO EASILY POST INFO INSTANTLY TO THE NWS FOR USE IN OUR
MARINE PRODUCTS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS WITH SCT SHOWERS.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...LOW END SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN.
FAIR WEATHER.

SUN THRU TUE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE RCD INQUIRY ON HOW THE CLIMATE PROGRAM SELECTS FOR OUR 530 PM
CLI. OUR PROGRAM SEARCHES MAX/MIN TEMP DATA FOR THE DAY ENDING 5PM
SHARP. THAT DATA IS INGESTED INTO THE 530 PM POSTED CLI. IF A MAX
TEMP OCCURS THEREAFTER...IT IS REFLECTED IN THE END OF DAY SUMMARY
POSTS AROUND 230 AM EDT THE NEXT DAY AND ALSO YOU CAN CHECK THE 8
PM RTPPHI WHICH POSTS AROUND 815 PM EDT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...IOVINO/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
CLIMATE...DRAG







000
FXUS61 KPHI 212245
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
645 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
STABLE AIR WAS CONTINUING TO ADVECT OFF THE OCEAN EARLY THIS
EVENING. DEW POINT READINGS WERE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S IN NEW JERSEY. MEANWHILE, CONDITIONS REMAINED UNSTABLE
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY STABLE DURING THE
EVENING WITH THE GRADUAL LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW. WE HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE
THE THUNDERSTORMS FROM ALL BUT TWO AREAS.

WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND INTO
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. THERE MAY BE SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
THERE, AS WELL. ALSO, WE WILL MAINTAIN THE EVENING THUNDERSTORM
FORECAST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN NORTHEASTERN
MARYLAND AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE AS SOME OF THE
CONVECTION IN THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY MAY SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THAT AREA.

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT WAS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD AND IT IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT.
AS A RESULT, WE WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT OUR
FORECAST AREA FOR TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT WITH A
LIGHT SOUTH TO EAST WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
1000J OF MLCAPE AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR CUES
INTEREST IN CONVECTION FRI AFTN. SREF HAS DECENT PROBS FOR
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY E PA...S NJ AND THE DELMARVA. FOR NOW HAVE
PLAYED THE SHOWER AND TSTM RISK CONSERVATIVELY AND MAINTAINED THE
330 AM THURSDAY FCST POPS FOR FRIDAY...ABOUT 10 PCT BELOW THE
12Z/21 GFS/NAM MOS BLEND.

IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE EASTERLY AS THE
SFC LOW CONSOLIDATES TO THE S OF THE DELMARVA.

FCST BASIS: TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS ARE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/21
GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK
UPPER LOW AND SFC LOW THU NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. SCT SHOWERS AND A
FEW TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS MOST AREAS THU EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...A COUPLE LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SAT MOSTLY
ACROSS THE DELMARVA...SE PA AND SRN NJ. CHC FOR SHOWERS ARE ONLY
IN THE CHC RANGE HOWEVER. A FEW DOWNPOURS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THU
NIGHT WITH THE HIGHER PWATS STILL ACROSS THE SRN AREAS. LOWS THU
NIGHT WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE NORTH AND MID/UPPER
60S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS SAT IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S SOUTH AND LOW TO
MID 70S NORTH. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH IN FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH SAT.

AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS UP TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND
THEN ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE SLOWLY IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER HIGH. THIS WILL PRODUCE
A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR OUR REGION. POPS FOR SAT NIGHT THRU
NEXT WEN NIGHT ARE SUB-15PCT RANGE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUN/MON...NEAR
NORMAL TUE...AND THEN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WED/THU. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL BE COMFORTABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL TREND UP
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR TONIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENING TO THE NORTH OF KABE
AND KTTN AND TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF KPHL AND KILG.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GENERALLY VFR THROUGH 0400Z EXCEPT THEY MAY
LOWER TO MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. SOME SPOTS COULD FALL TO IFR DEPENDING UPON THE
EXTENT OF ANY STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT THAT TIME.

THE WIND SHOULD BACK FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TO THE EAST
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LESS THAN
10 KNOTS

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU SAT...MOSTLY VFR BUT SCT SHOWERS MAY BRING LOWER
CONDITIONS.

SAT NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
BECOMING EASTERLY FRIDAY.

WE`VE NOT SEEN ANY NEW MAREPS THIS WEEK FROM MARINERS IN OUR EASY
USE (INTERNET AND/OR SMART PHONE) LINK
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/MAROBSFORM THIS HAS BEEN DERIVED FOR THE
MARINER TO EASILY POST INFO INSTANTLY TO THE NWS FOR USE IN OUR
MARINE PRODUCTS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS WITH SCT SHOWERS.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...LOW END SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN.
FAIR WEATHER.

SUN THRU TUE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE RCD INQUIRY ON HOW THE CLIMATE PROGRAM SELECTS FOR OUR 530 PM
CLI. OUR PROGRAM SEARCHES MAX/MIN TEMP DATA FOR THE DAY ENDING 5PM
SHARP. THAT DATA IS INGESTED INTO THE 530 PM POSTED CLI. IF A MAX
TEMP OCCURS THEREAFTER...IT IS REFLECTED IN THE END OF DAY SUMMARY
POSTS AROUND 230 AM EDT THE NEXT DAY AND ALSO YOU CAN CHECK THE 8
PM RTPPHI WHICH POSTS AROUND 815 PM EDT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...IOVINO/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
CLIMATE...DRAG







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 212049
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
449 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND IS SLOW TO
BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK BROAD LOW PRESSURE IN
VICINITY OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH A BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM
E-CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER PA AHEAD OF A
~100KT UPPER JET DIVING ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES. SPC MESOANALYSIS
INDICATES 35-40KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM SE PA THROUGH THE LOWER MD
ERN SHORE ALONG WITH AN AXIS OF 1500J/KG OF MLCAPE. THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE ERN SHORE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE JET DIVES SE. A FEW STRONGER
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BASED ON FAVORABLE DYNAMIC AND THERMODYNAMIC
PARAMETERS...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE RATHER WEAK LAPSE RATES. OTHERWISE...A
CHC (30-40%) OF GENERAL THUNDER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER
JET ENERGY PASSES OVER THE AREA AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS IN
PLACE. LESS FOG IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID/UPPER NW FLOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. A
MORE VIGOROUS WAVE DROPS THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE BEST CHC OF AND GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD DUE
TO MORE FAVORABLE/STRONGER UPPER JET SUPPORT. POCKETS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN MODEST MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE UPPER
SUPPORT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND SLOWLY
PUSHES INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUSH THE REMNANT FRONT S
OF THE AREA. CHC POPS WILL CONTINUE EARLY SATURDAY...WITH A STEADY
DRYING TREND COMMENCING SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM NNE-SSW AS THE HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY 85-90...AND THEN FROM THE LOW TO MID
80S SATURDAY (UPPER 70S ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES)...WITH UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S SUNDAY. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
SATURDAY...AND IN THE 60S SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF MAINLY NE FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH RIDGES SOUTH WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EMERGES FROM THE BAHAMAS. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A COOLER
MARITIME AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BEGIN TO CENTER THEMSELVES OVER
THE FA. AT THIS POINT SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL AND WILL HELP TO DRY
THE ATMOSPHERE. PRECIP ALONG THE VA/NC COAST CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT DUE TO THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE NORTH AS THE SURFACE LOW
FORMS TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY IN REGARDS TO
THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. AND
DUE TO THE LARGE DEGREE OF CHANGE IN MODEL RUNS...AT THIS
POINT...WILL NOT MODIFY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TOO MUCH.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH LOWS AROUND 80 MON AND TUES...WARMING SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID 80S
WED AND THUR. SEASONAL LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE LIKELY AS
THE MARITIME AIRMASS WILL LIMIT SIGNIFICANT OVERNIGHT COOLING.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE AREA.
A STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THESE FRONTS COMBINED WITH A MOIST AIR MASS WILL TRIGGER
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE NUMEROUS ON FRIDAY. WITH A
SEA BREEZE AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE EASTERN PART OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME THESE BUT THESE SHOULD END BY AROUND 00Z.
OUT TO THE WEST SEVERAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ARE MOVING
TOWARD THE AREA. THESE SHOULD DIMINISH AS THEY CROSS THE MOUNTAIN
BUT COULD STILL TRIGGER A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NEAR KRIC THIS
EVENING. THE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST WILL PRODUCE PLENTY OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD PREVENT ANY WIDE
SPREAD FOG FROM FORMING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT
CLEARING WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.
WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MAINLY SOME EAST
WINDS NEAR THE COAST AND SOUTHWEST INLAND. ALL AREAS WILL SWITCH
TO NORTH OR NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT IS CURRENTLY
POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
THIS WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AFTN.
EARLY SAT MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH FROM THE NORTHEASTERN
US CAUSING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. ENERGY
STREAMING SE WILL HELP FORM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL ENHANCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE WATERS CAUSING NEAR SCA WIND GUST OVER THE BAY(18-20KT) AND THE
COASTAL WATERS(23-25KT) ON SATURDAY. DUE TO THE WIND DIRECTION AND
FETCH...EXPECT WAVES TO BUILD TO 4-6FT ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS LASTING EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO POSITION OVER THE AREA BY TUESDAY BUT LOW PRESSURE
EMERGING FROM THE SOUTH MAY HELP TO MAINTAIN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH WED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MAS/JAB
MARINE...DAP






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 212006
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
406 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND IS SLOW TO
BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK BROAD LOW PRESSURE IN
VICINITY OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH A BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM
E-CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER PA AHEAD OF A
~100KT UPPER JET DIVING ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES. SPC MESOANALYSIS
INDICATES 35-40KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM SE PA THROUGH THE LOWER MD
ERN SHORE ALONG WITH AN AXIS OF 1500J/KG OF MLCAPE. THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE ERN SHORE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE JET DIVES SE. A FEW STRONGER
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BASED ON FAVORABLE DYNAMIC AND THERMODYNAMIC
PARAMETERS...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE RATHER WEAK LAPSE RATES. OTHERWISE...A
CHC (30-40%) OF GENERAL THUNDER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER
JET ENERGY PASSES OVER THE AREA AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS IN
PLACE. LESS FOG IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID/UPPER NW FLOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. A
MORE VIGOROUS WAVE DROPS THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE BEST CHC OF AND GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD DUE
TO MORE FAVORABLE/STRONGER UPPER JET SUPPORT. POCKETS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN MODEST MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE UPPER
SUPPORT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND SLOWLY
PUSHES INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUSH THE REMNANT FRONT S
OF THE AREA. CHC POPS WILL CONTINUE EARLY SATURDAY...WITH A STEADY
DRYING TREND COMMENCING SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM NNE-SSW AS THE HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY 85-90...AND THEN FROM THE LOW TO MID
80S SATURDAY (UPPER 70S ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES)...WITH UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S SUNDAY. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
SATURDAY...AND IN THE 60S SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF MAINLY NE FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH RIDGES SOUTH WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EMERGES FROM THE BAHAMAS. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A COOLER
MARITIME AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BEGIN TO CENTER THEMSELVES OVER
THE FA. AT THIS POINT SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL AND WILL HELP TO DRY
THE ATMOSPHERE. PRECIP ALONG THE VA/NC COAST CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT DUE TO THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE NORTH AS THE SURFACE LOW
FORMS TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY IN REGARDS TO
THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. AND
DUE TO THE LARGE DEGREE OF CHANGE IN MODEL RUNS...AT THIS
POINT...WILL NOT MODIFY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TOO MUCH.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH LOWS AROUND 80 MON AND TUES...WARMING SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID 80S
WED AND THUR. SEASONAL LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE LIKELY AS
THE MARITIME AIRMASS WILL LIMIT SIGNIFICANT OVERNIGHT COOLING.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE AREA.
A STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THESE FRONTS COMBINED WITH A MOIST AIR MASS WILL TRIGGER
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE NUMEROUS ON FRIDAY. WITH A
SEA BREEZE AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE EASTERN PART OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME THESE BUT THESE SHOULD END BY AROUND 00Z.
OUT TO THE WEST SEVERAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ARE MOVING
TOWARD THE AREA. THESE SHOULD DIMINISH AS THEY CROSS THE MOUNTAIN
BUT COULD STILL TRIGGER A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NEAR KRIC THIS
EVENING. THE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST WILL PRODUCE PLENTY OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD PREVENT ANY WIDE
SPREAD FOG FROM FORMING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT
CLEARING WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.
WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MAINLY SOME EAST
WINDS NEAR THE COAST AND SOUTHWEST INLAND. ALL AREAS WILL SWITCH
TO NORTH OR NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. A STATIONARY FRNT WILL
REMAIN JUST INLAND TDA OVR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL LEAD
TO LGT WINDS OVR ALL WTRS (AOB 10 KT) OUT OF THE S/SE. EXPECT MAINLY
2 FT SEAS (3 FT THIS MORNG OUT 20NM). THE FRNT STALLS OVR THE WTRS
TNGT AS A WAVE OF LO PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRNT...VEERING WINDS
BEHIND THE LO TO AVG OUT OF THE N ON FRI. HI PRES OVR THE NE STATES
RIDGES SWD OVR THE WTRS FRI NGT INTO SAT AS LO PRES PUSHES OFF THE
NC COAST. A STRENGTHENING PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
NELY WINDS OVER THE CSTAL WTRS LATE FRI NGT THRU SAT. HI PRES
REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE NE CST THRU ERLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. ATTM...SPEEDS APPEAR TO REMAIN
SUB-SCA...BUT SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BLD TO 4-5 FT LATE SAT THRU
MON.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MAS/JAB
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KPHI 211932
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
332 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...UNSETTLED WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND SMALL HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS
(G35KT)...PARTICULARLY NE PA AND NW NJ...AND THINKING AKIN TO THE
00Z/21 NSSL WRF IN WEAK WAA AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH IN CENTRAL PA
WHERE SBLI AT 18Z NEAR -7. EXPLAINING THE AXIS OF THE ONGOING
STORMS AT 1830Z...I CANNOT EASILY DO. IT APPEARS INSTABILITY AND
PROXIMITY TO THE COLD TROUGH ALOFT HAS FOCUSED IN OUR CWA MORE TO
THE NORTH RATHER THAN TO THE SOUTH. PWAT NEAR 1.5 INCHES. MLCAPE
1200J. MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. THE SREF AND GEFS POPS ARE 20-30
PCT HIGHER THAN WHAT WE ARE ISSUING AT 330 PM.

AS NOTED EARLIER: THE 12Z NAM CONTG A THEME OF 2 INCH IN ONE HOUR
TSTMS SOMEWHERE IN E CENTRAL PA INTO CENTRAL NJ THIS EVENING. VIL
NEAR 60 AT 1845Z CENTRAL PA IS EITHER VERIFYING THAT RAIN OR
SUGGESTING LARGE HAIL.

WHILE THE PLACEMENT OF THE NAM SHORT TERM QPF IS POSSIBLY WRONG...THE
IDEA I THINK IS CORRECT. A PTN OF E CENTRAL OR NE PA IN N OR CENTRAL
NJ SHOULD RECEIVE SOME STRONG TSTORMS VERY LATE THIS AFTN OR EVENING.

OTRW CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS DELMARVA AS BLOWOFF CLOUD DEBRIS FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY CONVECTION SPREADS EWD.


AFTER MIDNIGHT...NORMALLY ANY EVENING CONVECTION DIMINISHES BUT
THE ECMWF TRIES TO INCREASE RFALL AFTER 06Z WITH THE SHORT WAVE
MOVING SEWD FROM NYS. JUST VERY UNSURE OF WHAT EXISTS AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT.

PLEASE FOLLOW ANY UPDATED SWOMCD`S SWODY1 AND LOCAL PHI CONVECTIVE
RELATED PRODUCTS ISSUED THIS EVENING.

FCST BASIS: TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS ARE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/21
GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
1000J OF MLCAPE AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR CUES INTEREST
IN CONVECTION FRI AFTN. SREF HAS DECENT PROBS FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
E PA...S NJ AND THE DELMARVA. FOR NOW HAVE PLAYED THE SHOWER AND
TSTM RISK CONSERVATIVELY AND MAINTAINED THE 330 AM THURSDAY FCST
POPS FOR FRIDAY...ABOUT 10 PCT BELOW THE 12Z/21 GFS/NAM MOS BLEND.

IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE EASTERLY AS THE
SFC LOW CONSOLIDATES TO THE S OF THE DELMARVA.

FCST BASIS: TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS ARE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/21
GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK UPPER
LOW AND SFC LOW THU NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW
TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS MOST AREAS THU EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...A COUPLE LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SAT MOSTLY ACROSS
THE DELMARVA...SE PA AND SRN NJ. CHC FOR SHOWERS ARE ONLY IN THE CHC
RANGE HOWEVER. A FEW DOWNPOURS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THU NIGHT WITH THE
HIGHER PWATS STILL ACROSS THE SRN AREAS. LOWS THU NIGHT WILL MOSTLY
BE IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE NORTH AND MID/UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.
HIGHS SAT IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S SOUTH AND LOW TO MID 70S NORTH.
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH IN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SAT.

AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS UP TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND
THEN ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE SLOWLY IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER HIGH. THIS WILL PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR OUR REGION. POPS FOR SAT NIGHT THRU NEXT
WEN NIGHT ARE SUB-15PCT RANGE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUN/MON...NEAR NORMAL TUE...AND THEN A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL WED/THU. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE COMFORTABLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL TREND UP TOWARD THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER THIS AFTERNOON...SPOTTY MVFR CIGS IN E PA SHOULD LIFT
THE VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT ELSEWHERE WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW. LOCAL IFR CONDS IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATE THIS
AFTN...MAINLY VCNTY KRDG AND KABE. A NW WIND GUST TO 35 KT
POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH A LATE AFTN TSTM.

TONIGHT...SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS EVENING WITH NW WIND G25-35 KT
AND BRIEF IFR CONDS...MAINLY IN THE 23Z-03Z TIME FRAME THOUGH
SHOWERS MAY LINGER LATE AT NIGHT VCNTY KACY. OTRW VFR CIGS MAY
DEGRADE TO MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN ST/FOG TOWARD 09Z. CONFIDENCE ON
DEGRADED CIGS/VSBY LATE AT NIGHT IS BELOW AVG.

FRIDAY...CIGS 2500-4000 FT WITH LOWER IFR CONDS IN SCT SHOWERS AND
TSTMS AND THE WIND TURNING LIGHT EASTERLY.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU SAT...MOSTLY VFR BUT SCT SHOWERS MAY BRING LOWER CONDITIONS.
SAT NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SEAS
3 FEET OR LESS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS BECOMING
EASTERLY FRIDAY.

WE`VE NOT SEEN ANY NEW MAREPS THIS WEEK FROM MARINERS IN OUR EASY
USE (INTERNET AND/OR SMART PHONE) LINK WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/MAROBSFORM
THIS HAS BEEN DERIVED FOR THE MARINER TO EASILY POST INFO INSTANTLY
TO THE NWS FOR USE IN OUR MARINE PRODUCTS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS WITH SCT SHOWERS.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...LOW END SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN.
FAIR WEATHER.

SUN THRU TUE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE RCD INQUIRY ON HOW THE CLIMATE PROGRAM SELECTS FOR OUR 530 PM
CLI. OUR PROGRAM SEARCHES MAX/MIN TEMP DATA FOR THE DAY ENDING 5PM
SHARP. THAT DATA IS INGESTED INTO THE 530 PM POSTED CLI. IF A MAX
TEMP OCCURS THEREAFTER...IT IS REFLECTED IN THE END OF DAY SUMMARY
POSTS AROUND 230 AM EDT THE NEXT DAY AND ALSO YOU CAN CHECK THE 8
PM RTPPHI WHICH POSTS AROUND 815 PM EDT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 211932
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
332 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...UNSETTLED WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND SMALL HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS
(G35KT)...PARTICULARLY NE PA AND NW NJ...AND THINKING AKIN TO THE
00Z/21 NSSL WRF IN WEAK WAA AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH IN CENTRAL PA
WHERE SBLI AT 18Z NEAR -7. EXPLAINING THE AXIS OF THE ONGOING
STORMS AT 1830Z...I CANNOT EASILY DO. IT APPEARS INSTABILITY AND
PROXIMITY TO THE COLD TROUGH ALOFT HAS FOCUSED IN OUR CWA MORE TO
THE NORTH RATHER THAN TO THE SOUTH. PWAT NEAR 1.5 INCHES. MLCAPE
1200J. MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. THE SREF AND GEFS POPS ARE 20-30
PCT HIGHER THAN WHAT WE ARE ISSUING AT 330 PM.

AS NOTED EARLIER: THE 12Z NAM CONTG A THEME OF 2 INCH IN ONE HOUR
TSTMS SOMEWHERE IN E CENTRAL PA INTO CENTRAL NJ THIS EVENING. VIL
NEAR 60 AT 1845Z CENTRAL PA IS EITHER VERIFYING THAT RAIN OR
SUGGESTING LARGE HAIL.

WHILE THE PLACEMENT OF THE NAM SHORT TERM QPF IS POSSIBLY WRONG...THE
IDEA I THINK IS CORRECT. A PTN OF E CENTRAL OR NE PA IN N OR CENTRAL
NJ SHOULD RECEIVE SOME STRONG TSTORMS VERY LATE THIS AFTN OR EVENING.

OTRW CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS DELMARVA AS BLOWOFF CLOUD DEBRIS FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY CONVECTION SPREADS EWD.


AFTER MIDNIGHT...NORMALLY ANY EVENING CONVECTION DIMINISHES BUT
THE ECMWF TRIES TO INCREASE RFALL AFTER 06Z WITH THE SHORT WAVE
MOVING SEWD FROM NYS. JUST VERY UNSURE OF WHAT EXISTS AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT.

PLEASE FOLLOW ANY UPDATED SWOMCD`S SWODY1 AND LOCAL PHI CONVECTIVE
RELATED PRODUCTS ISSUED THIS EVENING.

FCST BASIS: TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS ARE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/21
GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
1000J OF MLCAPE AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR CUES INTEREST
IN CONVECTION FRI AFTN. SREF HAS DECENT PROBS FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
E PA...S NJ AND THE DELMARVA. FOR NOW HAVE PLAYED THE SHOWER AND
TSTM RISK CONSERVATIVELY AND MAINTAINED THE 330 AM THURSDAY FCST
POPS FOR FRIDAY...ABOUT 10 PCT BELOW THE 12Z/21 GFS/NAM MOS BLEND.

IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE EASTERLY AS THE
SFC LOW CONSOLIDATES TO THE S OF THE DELMARVA.

FCST BASIS: TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS ARE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/21
GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK UPPER
LOW AND SFC LOW THU NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW
TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS MOST AREAS THU EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...A COUPLE LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SAT MOSTLY ACROSS
THE DELMARVA...SE PA AND SRN NJ. CHC FOR SHOWERS ARE ONLY IN THE CHC
RANGE HOWEVER. A FEW DOWNPOURS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THU NIGHT WITH THE
HIGHER PWATS STILL ACROSS THE SRN AREAS. LOWS THU NIGHT WILL MOSTLY
BE IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE NORTH AND MID/UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.
HIGHS SAT IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S SOUTH AND LOW TO MID 70S NORTH.
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH IN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SAT.

AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS UP TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND
THEN ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE SLOWLY IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER HIGH. THIS WILL PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR OUR REGION. POPS FOR SAT NIGHT THRU NEXT
WEN NIGHT ARE SUB-15PCT RANGE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUN/MON...NEAR NORMAL TUE...AND THEN A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL WED/THU. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE COMFORTABLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL TREND UP TOWARD THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER THIS AFTERNOON...SPOTTY MVFR CIGS IN E PA SHOULD LIFT
THE VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT ELSEWHERE WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW. LOCAL IFR CONDS IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATE THIS
AFTN...MAINLY VCNTY KRDG AND KABE. A NW WIND GUST TO 35 KT
POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH A LATE AFTN TSTM.

TONIGHT...SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS EVENING WITH NW WIND G25-35 KT
AND BRIEF IFR CONDS...MAINLY IN THE 23Z-03Z TIME FRAME THOUGH
SHOWERS MAY LINGER LATE AT NIGHT VCNTY KACY. OTRW VFR CIGS MAY
DEGRADE TO MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN ST/FOG TOWARD 09Z. CONFIDENCE ON
DEGRADED CIGS/VSBY LATE AT NIGHT IS BELOW AVG.

FRIDAY...CIGS 2500-4000 FT WITH LOWER IFR CONDS IN SCT SHOWERS AND
TSTMS AND THE WIND TURNING LIGHT EASTERLY.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU SAT...MOSTLY VFR BUT SCT SHOWERS MAY BRING LOWER CONDITIONS.
SAT NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SEAS
3 FEET OR LESS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS BECOMING
EASTERLY FRIDAY.

WE`VE NOT SEEN ANY NEW MAREPS THIS WEEK FROM MARINERS IN OUR EASY
USE (INTERNET AND/OR SMART PHONE) LINK WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/MAROBSFORM
THIS HAS BEEN DERIVED FOR THE MARINER TO EASILY POST INFO INSTANTLY
TO THE NWS FOR USE IN OUR MARINE PRODUCTS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS WITH SCT SHOWERS.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...LOW END SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN.
FAIR WEATHER.

SUN THRU TUE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE RCD INQUIRY ON HOW THE CLIMATE PROGRAM SELECTS FOR OUR 530 PM
CLI. OUR PROGRAM SEARCHES MAX/MIN TEMP DATA FOR THE DAY ENDING 5PM
SHARP. THAT DATA IS INGESTED INTO THE 530 PM POSTED CLI. IF A MAX
TEMP OCCURS THEREAFTER...IT IS REFLECTED IN THE END OF DAY SUMMARY
POSTS AROUND 230 AM EDT THE NEXT DAY AND ALSO YOU CAN CHECK THE 8
PM RTPPHI WHICH POSTS AROUND 815 PM EDT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 211858
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
258 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM LAKE ONTARIO TO VIRGINIA PRODUCES OCCASIONALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER HERE THROUGH FRIDAY. QUEBEC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
OUR PRIMARY WEATHER INFLUENCE LATER THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH SETTLES SOUTHWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...UNSETTLED WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND SMALL HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS
(G35KT)...PARTICULARLY NE PA AND NW NJ...AND THINKING AKIN TO THE
00Z/21 NSSL WRF IN WEAK WAA AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH IN CENTRAL PA
WHERE SBLI AT 18Z NEAR -7. EXPLAINING THE AXIS OF THE ONGOING
STORMS AT 1830Z...I CANNOT EASILY DO. IT APPEARS INSTABILITY AND
PROXIMITY TO THE COLD TROUGH ALOFT HAS FOCUSED IN OUR CWA MORE TO
THE NORTH RATHER THAN TO THE SOUTH. PWAT NEAR 1.5 INCHES. MLCAPE
1200J. MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. THE SREF AND GEFS POPS ARE 20-30
PCT HIGHER THAN WHAT WE ARE ISSUING AT 330 PM.

AS NOTED EARLIER: THE 12Z NAM CONTG A THEME OF 2 INCH IN ONE HOUR
TSTMS SOMEWHERE IN E CENTRAL PA INTO CENTRAL NJ THIS EVENING. VIL
NEAR 60 AT 1845Z CENTRAL PA IS EITHER VERIFYING THAT RAIN OR
SUGGESTING LARGE HAIL.

WHILE THE PLACEMENT OF THE NAM SHORT TERM QPF IS POSSIBLY WRONG...THE
IDEA I THINK IS CORRECT. A PTN OF E CENTRAL OR NE PA IN N OR CENTRAL
NJ SHOULD RECEIVE SOME STRONG TSTORMS VERY LATE THIS AFTN OR EVENING.

OTRW CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS DELMARVA AS BLOWOFF CLOUD DEBRIS FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY CONVECTION SPREADS EWD.


AFTER MIDNIGHT...NORMALLY ANY EVENING CONVECTION DIMINISHES BUT
THE ECMWF TRIES TO INCREASE RFALL AFTER 06Z WITH THE SHORT WAVE
MOVING SEWD FROM NYS. JUST VERY UNSURE OF WHAT EXISTS AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT.

PLEASE FOLLOW ANY UPDATED SWOMCD`S SWODY1 AND LOCAL PHI CONVECTIVE
RELATED PRODUCTS ISSUED THIS EVENING.

FCST BASIS: TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS ARE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/21
GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
1000J OF MLCAPE AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR CUES INTEREST
IN CONVECTION FRI AFTN. SREF HAS DECENT PROBS FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
E PA...S NJ AND THE DELMARVA. FOR NOW HAVE PLAYED THE SHOWER AND
TSTM RISK CONSERVATIVELY AND MAINTAINED THE 330 AM THURSDAY FCST
POPS FOR FRIDAY...ABOUT 10 PCT BELOW THE 12Z/21 GFS/NAM MOS BLEND.

IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE EASTERLY AS THE
SFC LOW CONSOLIDATES TO THE S OF THE DELMARVA.

FCST BASIS: TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS ARE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/21
GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE REGION REMAINS UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE STOUT RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, AND THE OTHER HIGH REMAINS OVER EASTERN CANADA. WITH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW, EXPECT A FEW EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO BRING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE TIMING
OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS SOUTH.
WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ADVECTION, COULD SEE HIGHS ESPECIALLY
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BY TUESDAY
HOWEVER, THE HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT OFF SHORE, LEAVING THE REGION
UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LEADING TO A MODEST WARMING TREND. HOWEVER,
ALSO TOWARDS THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS DIFFER GREATLY ON THE TIMING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE PROPAGATING EAST ON THE
HEALS OF THE HIGH. STILL, BOTH SOLUTIONS SHOW THESE FEATURES JUST
BEYOND THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER THIS AFTERNOON...SPOTTY MVFR CIGS IN E PA SHOULD LIFT
THE VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT ELSEWHERE WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW. LOCAL IFR CONDS IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATE THIS
AFTN...MAINLY VCNTY KRDG AND KABE. A NW WIND GUST TO 35 KT
POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH A LATE AFTN TSTM.

TONIGHT...SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS EVENING WITH NW WIND G25-35 KT
AND BRIEF IFR CONDS...MAINLY IN THE 23Z-03Z TIME FRAME THOUGH
SHOWERS MAY LINGER LATE AT NIGHT VCNTY KACY. OTRW VFR CIGS MAY
DEGRADE TO MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN ST/FOG TOWARD 09Z. CONFIDENCE ON
DEGRADED CIGS/VSBY LATE AT NIGHT IS BELOW AVG.

FRIDAY...CIGS 2500-4000 FT WITH LOWER IFR CONDS IN SCT SHOWERS AND
TSTMS AND THE WIND TURNING LIGHT EASTERLY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. UNDER ANY TSRA MVFR CEILINGS AND
BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SEAS
3 FEET OR LESS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS BECOMING
EASTERLY FRIDAY.

WE`VE NOT SEEN ANY NEW MAREPS THIS WEEK FROM MARINERS IN OUR EASY
USE (INTERNET AND/OR SMART PHONE) LINK WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/MAROBSFORM
THIS HAS BEEN DERIVED FOR THE MARINER TO EASILY POST INFO INSTANTLY
TO THE NWS FOR USE IN OUR MARINE PRODUCTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...SCA NE WIND GUSTS MAY DEVELOP LATE AT NIGHT ON THE
ATLC WATERS.

SATURDAY...OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25 KT AND WAVE HEIGHTS APPROACHING
5 FT ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS AND WINDS SLOWLY FALLING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY MORNING AND SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE RCD INQUIRY ON HOW THE CLIMATE PROGRAM SELECTS FOR OUR 530 PM
CLI. OUR PROGRAM SEARCHES MAX/MIN TEMP DATA FOR THE DAY ENDING 5PM
SHARP. THAT DATA IS INGESTED INTO THE 530 PM POSTED CLI. IF A MAX
TEMP OCCURS THEREAFTER...IT IS REFLECTED IN THE END OF DAY SUMMARY
POSTS AROUND 230 AM EDT THE NEXT DAY AND ALSO YOU CAN CHECK THE 8
PM RTPPHI WHICH POSTS AROUND 815 PM EDT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG  257
SHORT TERM...DRAG 257
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON 257
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON 257
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 211858
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
258 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM LAKE ONTARIO TO VIRGINIA PRODUCES OCCASIONALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER HERE THROUGH FRIDAY. QUEBEC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
OUR PRIMARY WEATHER INFLUENCE LATER THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH SETTLES SOUTHWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...UNSETTLED WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND SMALL HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS
(G35KT)...PARTICULARLY NE PA AND NW NJ...AND THINKING AKIN TO THE
00Z/21 NSSL WRF IN WEAK WAA AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH IN CENTRAL PA
WHERE SBLI AT 18Z NEAR -7. EXPLAINING THE AXIS OF THE ONGOING
STORMS AT 1830Z...I CANNOT EASILY DO. IT APPEARS INSTABILITY AND
PROXIMITY TO THE COLD TROUGH ALOFT HAS FOCUSED IN OUR CWA MORE TO
THE NORTH RATHER THAN TO THE SOUTH. PWAT NEAR 1.5 INCHES. MLCAPE
1200J. MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. THE SREF AND GEFS POPS ARE 20-30
PCT HIGHER THAN WHAT WE ARE ISSUING AT 330 PM.

AS NOTED EARLIER: THE 12Z NAM CONTG A THEME OF 2 INCH IN ONE HOUR
TSTMS SOMEWHERE IN E CENTRAL PA INTO CENTRAL NJ THIS EVENING. VIL
NEAR 60 AT 1845Z CENTRAL PA IS EITHER VERIFYING THAT RAIN OR
SUGGESTING LARGE HAIL.

WHILE THE PLACEMENT OF THE NAM SHORT TERM QPF IS POSSIBLY WRONG...THE
IDEA I THINK IS CORRECT. A PTN OF E CENTRAL OR NE PA IN N OR CENTRAL
NJ SHOULD RECEIVE SOME STRONG TSTORMS VERY LATE THIS AFTN OR EVENING.

OTRW CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS DELMARVA AS BLOWOFF CLOUD DEBRIS FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY CONVECTION SPREADS EWD.


AFTER MIDNIGHT...NORMALLY ANY EVENING CONVECTION DIMINISHES BUT
THE ECMWF TRIES TO INCREASE RFALL AFTER 06Z WITH THE SHORT WAVE
MOVING SEWD FROM NYS. JUST VERY UNSURE OF WHAT EXISTS AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT.

PLEASE FOLLOW ANY UPDATED SWOMCD`S SWODY1 AND LOCAL PHI CONVECTIVE
RELATED PRODUCTS ISSUED THIS EVENING.

FCST BASIS: TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS ARE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/21
GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
1000J OF MLCAPE AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR CUES INTEREST
IN CONVECTION FRI AFTN. SREF HAS DECENT PROBS FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
E PA...S NJ AND THE DELMARVA. FOR NOW HAVE PLAYED THE SHOWER AND
TSTM RISK CONSERVATIVELY AND MAINTAINED THE 330 AM THURSDAY FCST
POPS FOR FRIDAY...ABOUT 10 PCT BELOW THE 12Z/21 GFS/NAM MOS BLEND.

IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE EASTERLY AS THE
SFC LOW CONSOLIDATES TO THE S OF THE DELMARVA.

FCST BASIS: TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS ARE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/21
GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE REGION REMAINS UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE STOUT RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, AND THE OTHER HIGH REMAINS OVER EASTERN CANADA. WITH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW, EXPECT A FEW EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO BRING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE TIMING
OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS SOUTH.
WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ADVECTION, COULD SEE HIGHS ESPECIALLY
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BY TUESDAY
HOWEVER, THE HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT OFF SHORE, LEAVING THE REGION
UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LEADING TO A MODEST WARMING TREND. HOWEVER,
ALSO TOWARDS THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS DIFFER GREATLY ON THE TIMING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE PROPAGATING EAST ON THE
HEALS OF THE HIGH. STILL, BOTH SOLUTIONS SHOW THESE FEATURES JUST
BEYOND THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER THIS AFTERNOON...SPOTTY MVFR CIGS IN E PA SHOULD LIFT
THE VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT ELSEWHERE WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW. LOCAL IFR CONDS IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATE THIS
AFTN...MAINLY VCNTY KRDG AND KABE. A NW WIND GUST TO 35 KT
POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH A LATE AFTN TSTM.

TONIGHT...SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS EVENING WITH NW WIND G25-35 KT
AND BRIEF IFR CONDS...MAINLY IN THE 23Z-03Z TIME FRAME THOUGH
SHOWERS MAY LINGER LATE AT NIGHT VCNTY KACY. OTRW VFR CIGS MAY
DEGRADE TO MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN ST/FOG TOWARD 09Z. CONFIDENCE ON
DEGRADED CIGS/VSBY LATE AT NIGHT IS BELOW AVG.

FRIDAY...CIGS 2500-4000 FT WITH LOWER IFR CONDS IN SCT SHOWERS AND
TSTMS AND THE WIND TURNING LIGHT EASTERLY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. UNDER ANY TSRA MVFR CEILINGS AND
BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SEAS
3 FEET OR LESS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS BECOMING
EASTERLY FRIDAY.

WE`VE NOT SEEN ANY NEW MAREPS THIS WEEK FROM MARINERS IN OUR EASY
USE (INTERNET AND/OR SMART PHONE) LINK WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/MAROBSFORM
THIS HAS BEEN DERIVED FOR THE MARINER TO EASILY POST INFO INSTANTLY
TO THE NWS FOR USE IN OUR MARINE PRODUCTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...SCA NE WIND GUSTS MAY DEVELOP LATE AT NIGHT ON THE
ATLC WATERS.

SATURDAY...OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25 KT AND WAVE HEIGHTS APPROACHING
5 FT ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS AND WINDS SLOWLY FALLING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY MORNING AND SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE RCD INQUIRY ON HOW THE CLIMATE PROGRAM SELECTS FOR OUR 530 PM
CLI. OUR PROGRAM SEARCHES MAX/MIN TEMP DATA FOR THE DAY ENDING 5PM
SHARP. THAT DATA IS INGESTED INTO THE 530 PM POSTED CLI. IF A MAX
TEMP OCCURS THEREAFTER...IT IS REFLECTED IN THE END OF DAY SUMMARY
POSTS AROUND 230 AM EDT THE NEXT DAY AND ALSO YOU CAN CHECK THE 8
PM RTPPHI WHICH POSTS AROUND 815 PM EDT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG  257
SHORT TERM...DRAG 257
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON 257
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON 257
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KLWX 211839
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
239 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A STATIONARY FRONT WILL WAVER ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AS RIPPLES
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AN WILL TRAVERSE THE FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL PUSH IT SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND WILL DOWN DOWN THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISOLD TSTMS HV ALREADY DVLPD IN THE WRN PART OF THE FCST AREA IN
THE SUMMERTIME AIR MASS. MAIN AREA OF PCPN HAS SPENT THE DAY
TRAVERSING ACROSS IN INTO SRN OH ALONG A WARM FNT. THIS WL LKLY
MOVE INTO THE WRN SXN OF THE CWA IN THE 4-5 PM TIMEFRAME...MOVG E
OF THE MTNS THIS EVE. QUSTN WL BE IF IT CAN HOLD TOGETHER - IT
ISN`T TOO IMPRESSIVE ATTM AND HRRR IS EVEN LESS SO AS IT TRIES TO
MOVE TOWARDS THE METROS AFTR 00Z. REGARDING SVR THREAT - PULSE SVR
WOULD BE WORST CASE SCENARIO.

FOG LOOKS TO BE OF LESSER CONCERN TNGT THAN LAST NGT.

LOWS IN THE 60S W OF I-95...L70S E.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...

BNDRY RMNG IN THE AREA FRIDAY WL MOST LKLY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
TSTMS. WL KEEP POPS IN CHC RANGE. AGN SVR THREAT LOOKS LOW - LO
LVL WIND FIELD IS WEAK...CAPE IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. FFG IS
RLTVLY HIGH.

HIGHS IN THE MU80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

AN UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAX WILL DIP THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER BOUT OF ENHANCED RAINFALL. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL RIDGE DOWN THE EAST COAST AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN US. THE
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING DOWN INTO THE AREA WILL WORK WITH LOW
PRESSURE OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST TO BRING ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING. THE PRIMARY EFFECTS OF THE
INCOMING MARINE AIRMASS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY...SUNDAY
AND MONDAY TO ONLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE MORE OVERHEAD BY MONDAY NIGHT AND ONSHORE
FLOW WILL MOSTLY BE SHUT OFF. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
FILL INTO THE AREA TUESDAY...LEADING TO AN TREND TOWARD MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR 80
ON TUESDAY AND IN THE MID 80S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WITH A
RATHER DRY PROFILE CONVECTION IS UNLIKELY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. THE
NEXT THREAT FOR STORMS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD BE THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VFR CONDS XPCTD OUTSIDE OF ANY TSTMS. FOG MAY DVLP AT IAD/CHO/MRB
AFTR MDNGT...BUT NOT XPCTD TO BE AS DENSE AS IT WAS THIS MRNG.
TSTMS AGN PSBL FRI AFTN.

PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AS AN UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX
CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MARINE AIRMASS SETTLES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA VALUES TNGT/FRI. RW/TRW MAY OCCUR ON
THE WATERS THIS EVE AND AGN FRI AFTN.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE WIDEST ZONES OF THE
LOWER MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IN BREEZY EASTERLY FLOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

WATER LVLS ABOUT 3/4 FT ABV ASTRO NORMS. FRI MRNG TIDE WL BE
HIGH...BUT AM NOT ANTICIPATING REACHING CRITERIA ATTM. HOWEVER...
WE ARE WORKING ON A MARGIN OF INCHES. LATER SHIFTS WL MONITOR THE
SITUATION.

THERE COULD BE MORE NUISANCE ISSUES THIS WKND.


&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/CEB







000
FXUS61 KLWX 211839
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
239 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A STATIONARY FRONT WILL WAVER ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AS RIPPLES
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AN WILL TRAVERSE THE FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL PUSH IT SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND WILL DOWN DOWN THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISOLD TSTMS HV ALREADY DVLPD IN THE WRN PART OF THE FCST AREA IN
THE SUMMERTIME AIR MASS. MAIN AREA OF PCPN HAS SPENT THE DAY
TRAVERSING ACROSS IN INTO SRN OH ALONG A WARM FNT. THIS WL LKLY
MOVE INTO THE WRN SXN OF THE CWA IN THE 4-5 PM TIMEFRAME...MOVG E
OF THE MTNS THIS EVE. QUSTN WL BE IF IT CAN HOLD TOGETHER - IT
ISN`T TOO IMPRESSIVE ATTM AND HRRR IS EVEN LESS SO AS IT TRIES TO
MOVE TOWARDS THE METROS AFTR 00Z. REGARDING SVR THREAT - PULSE SVR
WOULD BE WORST CASE SCENARIO.

FOG LOOKS TO BE OF LESSER CONCERN TNGT THAN LAST NGT.

LOWS IN THE 60S W OF I-95...L70S E.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...

BNDRY RMNG IN THE AREA FRIDAY WL MOST LKLY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
TSTMS. WL KEEP POPS IN CHC RANGE. AGN SVR THREAT LOOKS LOW - LO
LVL WIND FIELD IS WEAK...CAPE IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. FFG IS
RLTVLY HIGH.

HIGHS IN THE MU80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

AN UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAX WILL DIP THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER BOUT OF ENHANCED RAINFALL. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL RIDGE DOWN THE EAST COAST AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN US. THE
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING DOWN INTO THE AREA WILL WORK WITH LOW
PRESSURE OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST TO BRING ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING. THE PRIMARY EFFECTS OF THE
INCOMING MARINE AIRMASS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY...SUNDAY
AND MONDAY TO ONLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE MORE OVERHEAD BY MONDAY NIGHT AND ONSHORE
FLOW WILL MOSTLY BE SHUT OFF. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
FILL INTO THE AREA TUESDAY...LEADING TO AN TREND TOWARD MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR 80
ON TUESDAY AND IN THE MID 80S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WITH A
RATHER DRY PROFILE CONVECTION IS UNLIKELY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. THE
NEXT THREAT FOR STORMS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD BE THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VFR CONDS XPCTD OUTSIDE OF ANY TSTMS. FOG MAY DVLP AT IAD/CHO/MRB
AFTR MDNGT...BUT NOT XPCTD TO BE AS DENSE AS IT WAS THIS MRNG.
TSTMS AGN PSBL FRI AFTN.

PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AS AN UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX
CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MARINE AIRMASS SETTLES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA VALUES TNGT/FRI. RW/TRW MAY OCCUR ON
THE WATERS THIS EVE AND AGN FRI AFTN.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE WIDEST ZONES OF THE
LOWER MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IN BREEZY EASTERLY FLOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

WATER LVLS ABOUT 3/4 FT ABV ASTRO NORMS. FRI MRNG TIDE WL BE
HIGH...BUT AM NOT ANTICIPATING REACHING CRITERIA ATTM. HOWEVER...
WE ARE WORKING ON A MARGIN OF INCHES. LATER SHIFTS WL MONITOR THE
SITUATION.

THERE COULD BE MORE NUISANCE ISSUES THIS WKND.


&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/CEB







000
FXUS61 KLWX 211839
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
239 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A STATIONARY FRONT WILL WAVER ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AS RIPPLES
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AN WILL TRAVERSE THE FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL PUSH IT SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND WILL DOWN DOWN THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISOLD TSTMS HV ALREADY DVLPD IN THE WRN PART OF THE FCST AREA IN
THE SUMMERTIME AIR MASS. MAIN AREA OF PCPN HAS SPENT THE DAY
TRAVERSING ACROSS IN INTO SRN OH ALONG A WARM FNT. THIS WL LKLY
MOVE INTO THE WRN SXN OF THE CWA IN THE 4-5 PM TIMEFRAME...MOVG E
OF THE MTNS THIS EVE. QUSTN WL BE IF IT CAN HOLD TOGETHER - IT
ISN`T TOO IMPRESSIVE ATTM AND HRRR IS EVEN LESS SO AS IT TRIES TO
MOVE TOWARDS THE METROS AFTR 00Z. REGARDING SVR THREAT - PULSE SVR
WOULD BE WORST CASE SCENARIO.

FOG LOOKS TO BE OF LESSER CONCERN TNGT THAN LAST NGT.

LOWS IN THE 60S W OF I-95...L70S E.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...

BNDRY RMNG IN THE AREA FRIDAY WL MOST LKLY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
TSTMS. WL KEEP POPS IN CHC RANGE. AGN SVR THREAT LOOKS LOW - LO
LVL WIND FIELD IS WEAK...CAPE IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. FFG IS
RLTVLY HIGH.

HIGHS IN THE MU80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

AN UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAX WILL DIP THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER BOUT OF ENHANCED RAINFALL. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL RIDGE DOWN THE EAST COAST AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN US. THE
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING DOWN INTO THE AREA WILL WORK WITH LOW
PRESSURE OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST TO BRING ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING. THE PRIMARY EFFECTS OF THE
INCOMING MARINE AIRMASS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY...SUNDAY
AND MONDAY TO ONLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE MORE OVERHEAD BY MONDAY NIGHT AND ONSHORE
FLOW WILL MOSTLY BE SHUT OFF. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
FILL INTO THE AREA TUESDAY...LEADING TO AN TREND TOWARD MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR 80
ON TUESDAY AND IN THE MID 80S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WITH A
RATHER DRY PROFILE CONVECTION IS UNLIKELY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. THE
NEXT THREAT FOR STORMS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD BE THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VFR CONDS XPCTD OUTSIDE OF ANY TSTMS. FOG MAY DVLP AT IAD/CHO/MRB
AFTR MDNGT...BUT NOT XPCTD TO BE AS DENSE AS IT WAS THIS MRNG.
TSTMS AGN PSBL FRI AFTN.

PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AS AN UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX
CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MARINE AIRMASS SETTLES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA VALUES TNGT/FRI. RW/TRW MAY OCCUR ON
THE WATERS THIS EVE AND AGN FRI AFTN.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE WIDEST ZONES OF THE
LOWER MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IN BREEZY EASTERLY FLOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

WATER LVLS ABOUT 3/4 FT ABV ASTRO NORMS. FRI MRNG TIDE WL BE
HIGH...BUT AM NOT ANTICIPATING REACHING CRITERIA ATTM. HOWEVER...
WE ARE WORKING ON A MARGIN OF INCHES. LATER SHIFTS WL MONITOR THE
SITUATION.

THERE COULD BE MORE NUISANCE ISSUES THIS WKND.


&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/CEB







000
FXUS61 KLWX 211839
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
239 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A STATIONARY FRONT WILL WAVER ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AS RIPPLES
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AN WILL TRAVERSE THE FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL PUSH IT SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND WILL DOWN DOWN THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISOLD TSTMS HV ALREADY DVLPD IN THE WRN PART OF THE FCST AREA IN
THE SUMMERTIME AIR MASS. MAIN AREA OF PCPN HAS SPENT THE DAY
TRAVERSING ACROSS IN INTO SRN OH ALONG A WARM FNT. THIS WL LKLY
MOVE INTO THE WRN SXN OF THE CWA IN THE 4-5 PM TIMEFRAME...MOVG E
OF THE MTNS THIS EVE. QUSTN WL BE IF IT CAN HOLD TOGETHER - IT
ISN`T TOO IMPRESSIVE ATTM AND HRRR IS EVEN LESS SO AS IT TRIES TO
MOVE TOWARDS THE METROS AFTR 00Z. REGARDING SVR THREAT - PULSE SVR
WOULD BE WORST CASE SCENARIO.

FOG LOOKS TO BE OF LESSER CONCERN TNGT THAN LAST NGT.

LOWS IN THE 60S W OF I-95...L70S E.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...

BNDRY RMNG IN THE AREA FRIDAY WL MOST LKLY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
TSTMS. WL KEEP POPS IN CHC RANGE. AGN SVR THREAT LOOKS LOW - LO
LVL WIND FIELD IS WEAK...CAPE IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. FFG IS
RLTVLY HIGH.

HIGHS IN THE MU80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

AN UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAX WILL DIP THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER BOUT OF ENHANCED RAINFALL. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL RIDGE DOWN THE EAST COAST AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN US. THE
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING DOWN INTO THE AREA WILL WORK WITH LOW
PRESSURE OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST TO BRING ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING. THE PRIMARY EFFECTS OF THE
INCOMING MARINE AIRMASS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY...SUNDAY
AND MONDAY TO ONLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE MORE OVERHEAD BY MONDAY NIGHT AND ONSHORE
FLOW WILL MOSTLY BE SHUT OFF. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
FILL INTO THE AREA TUESDAY...LEADING TO AN TREND TOWARD MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR 80
ON TUESDAY AND IN THE MID 80S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WITH A
RATHER DRY PROFILE CONVECTION IS UNLIKELY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. THE
NEXT THREAT FOR STORMS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD BE THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VFR CONDS XPCTD OUTSIDE OF ANY TSTMS. FOG MAY DVLP AT IAD/CHO/MRB
AFTR MDNGT...BUT NOT XPCTD TO BE AS DENSE AS IT WAS THIS MRNG.
TSTMS AGN PSBL FRI AFTN.

PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AS AN UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX
CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MARINE AIRMASS SETTLES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA VALUES TNGT/FRI. RW/TRW MAY OCCUR ON
THE WATERS THIS EVE AND AGN FRI AFTN.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE WIDEST ZONES OF THE
LOWER MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IN BREEZY EASTERLY FLOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

WATER LVLS ABOUT 3/4 FT ABV ASTRO NORMS. FRI MRNG TIDE WL BE
HIGH...BUT AM NOT ANTICIPATING REACHING CRITERIA ATTM. HOWEVER...
WE ARE WORKING ON A MARGIN OF INCHES. LATER SHIFTS WL MONITOR THE
SITUATION.

THERE COULD BE MORE NUISANCE ISSUES THIS WKND.


&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/CEB







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211827
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
227 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS NOW
MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. ADDED LIKELY POPS TO THE
NORTH AS UPPER WAVE PASSES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS AMPLE CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS PITTSBURGH AND SOUTH. HENCE...OPTIMAL
DAYTIME HEATING WILL NOT OCCUR IN THAT REGION...HOWEVER...INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL AID IN INSTABILITY YIELDING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TO THE NORTH...SUFFICIENT HEATING DUE TO LESS
CLOUDS HAVE RAMPED UP INSTABILITY. RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS RELATIVELY
STRONGER SHEAR IN THIS ZONE AS WELL. THEREFORE...ISOLATED STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF
PITTSBURGH.

GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WANE LATER IN THE
EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING. SOME SHOWERS MAY STILL LINGER
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE
BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION FROM A WEAKENING AND
EXITING UPPER LOW...AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SHIFT EAST ON
FRIDAY AS THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE. UNCERTAINTY STILL
EXISTS FOR ANY FLOODING AS MODELS ARE IN MINOR DISAGREEMENT FOR
THE PLACEMENT OF HEAVY RAIN. USED MODEL BLEND OF GFS/NAM FOR POPS
AND HPC FOR QPF.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A FEW SHORTWAVES TOPPING THE RIDGE
BRINGS THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AT LEAST FOR
SATURDAY BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE SMALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MORE CLARITY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH THE LATEST ROUND
OF MODEL GUIDANCE. UPPER RIDGE BUILDING NORTH WILL WORK TO DEFLECT
AN ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN AT OR EVEN JUST ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER OUT IN TIME THAN USUAL...NO EFFECTS
ARE EXPECTED LOCALLY FROM ANYTHING THAT MAY DEVELOP IN THE TROPICS.
TAX/TG

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH STRATIFORM RAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IS EXPECTED TO
PRIMARILY AFFECT ZZV...HLG...AND MGW...SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AT THE REST OF TAF SITES. A SECONDARY AXIS OF PRECIPITATION
SEEMS TO BE DEVELOPING ALONG THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR...AND
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN ADDED TO FKL/DUJ TAFS AS WELL. IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORM...BUT DID NOT WANT TO BLANKET
ALL SITES WITH THAT IN PREVAILING CONDITIONS. SHOWERS SHOULD
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH PREVAILING
PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AT MANY SOUTHERN
TERMINALS. ANY RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
PLACEMENT AND AMOUNT OF RAINFALL TODAY.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211827
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
227 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS NOW
MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. ADDED LIKELY POPS TO THE
NORTH AS UPPER WAVE PASSES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS AMPLE CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS PITTSBURGH AND SOUTH. HENCE...OPTIMAL
DAYTIME HEATING WILL NOT OCCUR IN THAT REGION...HOWEVER...INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL AID IN INSTABILITY YIELDING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TO THE NORTH...SUFFICIENT HEATING DUE TO LESS
CLOUDS HAVE RAMPED UP INSTABILITY. RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS RELATIVELY
STRONGER SHEAR IN THIS ZONE AS WELL. THEREFORE...ISOLATED STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF
PITTSBURGH.

GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WANE LATER IN THE
EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING. SOME SHOWERS MAY STILL LINGER
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE
BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION FROM A WEAKENING AND
EXITING UPPER LOW...AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SHIFT EAST ON
FRIDAY AS THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE. UNCERTAINTY STILL
EXISTS FOR ANY FLOODING AS MODELS ARE IN MINOR DISAGREEMENT FOR
THE PLACEMENT OF HEAVY RAIN. USED MODEL BLEND OF GFS/NAM FOR POPS
AND HPC FOR QPF.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A FEW SHORTWAVES TOPPING THE RIDGE
BRINGS THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AT LEAST FOR
SATURDAY BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE SMALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MORE CLARITY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH THE LATEST ROUND
OF MODEL GUIDANCE. UPPER RIDGE BUILDING NORTH WILL WORK TO DEFLECT
AN ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN AT OR EVEN JUST ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER OUT IN TIME THAN USUAL...NO EFFECTS
ARE EXPECTED LOCALLY FROM ANYTHING THAT MAY DEVELOP IN THE TROPICS.
TAX/TG

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH STRATIFORM RAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IS EXPECTED TO
PRIMARILY AFFECT ZZV...HLG...AND MGW...SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AT THE REST OF TAF SITES. A SECONDARY AXIS OF PRECIPITATION
SEEMS TO BE DEVELOPING ALONG THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR...AND
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN ADDED TO FKL/DUJ TAFS AS WELL. IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORM...BUT DID NOT WANT TO BLANKET
ALL SITES WITH THAT IN PREVAILING CONDITIONS. SHOWERS SHOULD
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH PREVAILING
PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AT MANY SOUTHERN
TERMINALS. ANY RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
PLACEMENT AND AMOUNT OF RAINFALL TODAY.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211827
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
227 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS NOW
MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. ADDED LIKELY POPS TO THE
NORTH AS UPPER WAVE PASSES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS AMPLE CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS PITTSBURGH AND SOUTH. HENCE...OPTIMAL
DAYTIME HEATING WILL NOT OCCUR IN THAT REGION...HOWEVER...INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL AID IN INSTABILITY YIELDING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TO THE NORTH...SUFFICIENT HEATING DUE TO LESS
CLOUDS HAVE RAMPED UP INSTABILITY. RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS RELATIVELY
STRONGER SHEAR IN THIS ZONE AS WELL. THEREFORE...ISOLATED STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF
PITTSBURGH.

GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WANE LATER IN THE
EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING. SOME SHOWERS MAY STILL LINGER
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE
BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION FROM A WEAKENING AND
EXITING UPPER LOW...AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SHIFT EAST ON
FRIDAY AS THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE. UNCERTAINTY STILL
EXISTS FOR ANY FLOODING AS MODELS ARE IN MINOR DISAGREEMENT FOR
THE PLACEMENT OF HEAVY RAIN. USED MODEL BLEND OF GFS/NAM FOR POPS
AND HPC FOR QPF.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A FEW SHORTWAVES TOPPING THE RIDGE
BRINGS THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AT LEAST FOR
SATURDAY BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE SMALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MORE CLARITY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH THE LATEST ROUND
OF MODEL GUIDANCE. UPPER RIDGE BUILDING NORTH WILL WORK TO DEFLECT
AN ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN AT OR EVEN JUST ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER OUT IN TIME THAN USUAL...NO EFFECTS
ARE EXPECTED LOCALLY FROM ANYTHING THAT MAY DEVELOP IN THE TROPICS.
TAX/TG

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH STRATIFORM RAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IS EXPECTED TO
PRIMARILY AFFECT ZZV...HLG...AND MGW...SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AT THE REST OF TAF SITES. A SECONDARY AXIS OF PRECIPITATION
SEEMS TO BE DEVELOPING ALONG THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR...AND
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN ADDED TO FKL/DUJ TAFS AS WELL. IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORM...BUT DID NOT WANT TO BLANKET
ALL SITES WITH THAT IN PREVAILING CONDITIONS. SHOWERS SHOULD
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH PREVAILING
PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AT MANY SOUTHERN
TERMINALS. ANY RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
PLACEMENT AND AMOUNT OF RAINFALL TODAY.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211827
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
227 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS NOW
MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. ADDED LIKELY POPS TO THE
NORTH AS UPPER WAVE PASSES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS AMPLE CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS PITTSBURGH AND SOUTH. HENCE...OPTIMAL
DAYTIME HEATING WILL NOT OCCUR IN THAT REGION...HOWEVER...INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL AID IN INSTABILITY YIELDING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TO THE NORTH...SUFFICIENT HEATING DUE TO LESS
CLOUDS HAVE RAMPED UP INSTABILITY. RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS RELATIVELY
STRONGER SHEAR IN THIS ZONE AS WELL. THEREFORE...ISOLATED STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF
PITTSBURGH.

GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WANE LATER IN THE
EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING. SOME SHOWERS MAY STILL LINGER
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE
BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION FROM A WEAKENING AND
EXITING UPPER LOW...AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SHIFT EAST ON
FRIDAY AS THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE. UNCERTAINTY STILL
EXISTS FOR ANY FLOODING AS MODELS ARE IN MINOR DISAGREEMENT FOR
THE PLACEMENT OF HEAVY RAIN. USED MODEL BLEND OF GFS/NAM FOR POPS
AND HPC FOR QPF.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A FEW SHORTWAVES TOPPING THE RIDGE
BRINGS THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AT LEAST FOR
SATURDAY BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE SMALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MORE CLARITY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH THE LATEST ROUND
OF MODEL GUIDANCE. UPPER RIDGE BUILDING NORTH WILL WORK TO DEFLECT
AN ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN AT OR EVEN JUST ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER OUT IN TIME THAN USUAL...NO EFFECTS
ARE EXPECTED LOCALLY FROM ANYTHING THAT MAY DEVELOP IN THE TROPICS.
TAX/TG

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH STRATIFORM RAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IS EXPECTED TO
PRIMARILY AFFECT ZZV...HLG...AND MGW...SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AT THE REST OF TAF SITES. A SECONDARY AXIS OF PRECIPITATION
SEEMS TO BE DEVELOPING ALONG THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR...AND
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN ADDED TO FKL/DUJ TAFS AS WELL. IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORM...BUT DID NOT WANT TO BLANKET
ALL SITES WITH THAT IN PREVAILING CONDITIONS. SHOWERS SHOULD
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH PREVAILING
PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AT MANY SOUTHERN
TERMINALS. ANY RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
PLACEMENT AND AMOUNT OF RAINFALL TODAY.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211825
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
225 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS NOW
MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. ADDED LIKELY POPS TO THE
NORTH AS UPPER WAVE PASSES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS AMPLE CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS PITTSBURGH AND SOUTH. HENCE...OPTIMAL
DAYTIME HEATING WILL NOT OCCUR IN THAT REGION...HOWEVER...INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL AID IN INSTABILITY YIELDING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TO THE NORTH...SUFFICIENT HEATING DUE TO LESS
CLOUDS HAVE RAMPED UP INSTABILITY. RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS RELATIVELY
STRONGER SHEAR IN THIS ZONE AS WELL. THEREFORE...ISOLATED STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF
PITTSBURGH.

GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WANE LATER IN THE
EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING. SOME SHOWERS MAY STILL LINGER
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE
BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION FROM A WEAKENING AND
EXITING UPPER LOW...AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SHIFT EAST ON
FRIDAY AS THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE. UNCERTAINTY STILL
EXISTS FOR ANY FLOODING AS MODELS ARE IN MINOR DISAGREEMENT FOR
THE PLACEMENT OF HEAVY RAIN. USED MODEL BLEND OF GFS/NAM FOR POPS
AND HPC FOR QPF.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A FEW SHORTWAVES TOPPING THE RIDGE
BRINGS THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AT LEAST FOR
SATURDAY BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE SMALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MORE CLARITY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH THE LATEST ROUND
OF MODEL GUIDANCE. BY SUN THE SFC LOW FROM THE EARLY WEEKEND DEEPENS
OVER THE PIEDMONT OF VA/NC PULLING THE DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH WITH
IT. IN THE MEANTIME...THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY SETTING UP OVER THE
SRN MS VALLEY WILL BUILD NORTH FURTHER WITH ITS AXIS SHIFTING EAST
THROUGH SUN. THIS WILL WORK TO DEFLECT AN ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WELL NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN AT OR EVEN
JUST ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL LOOKING AT THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST OHIO THIS AFTERNOON...LESS TO THE NORTH.
KEPT PREVAILING SHRA AT ZZV/MGW AND HAVE ONLY VCTS MENTIONED TO
THE NORTH. IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORM. SHOULD SEE A DECREASE
IN COVERAGE WITH LOSS OF HEATING DURING THE EVENING. PUT IN MVFR
FOG AT SOME LOCATIONS LATE. WILL NEED TO WATCH EASTERN OHIO LATE
TONIGHT FOR POSSIBLE INTRUSION OF MCS. ZZV WOULD HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF BEING AFFECTED.


OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211825
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
225 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS NOW
MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. ADDED LIKELY POPS TO THE
NORTH AS UPPER WAVE PASSES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS AMPLE CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS PITTSBURGH AND SOUTH. HENCE...OPTIMAL
DAYTIME HEATING WILL NOT OCCUR IN THAT REGION...HOWEVER...INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL AID IN INSTABILITY YIELDING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TO THE NORTH...SUFFICIENT HEATING DUE TO LESS
CLOUDS HAVE RAMPED UP INSTABILITY. RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS RELATIVELY
STRONGER SHEAR IN THIS ZONE AS WELL. THEREFORE...ISOLATED STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF
PITTSBURGH.

GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WANE LATER IN THE
EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING. SOME SHOWERS MAY STILL LINGER
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE
BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION FROM A WEAKENING AND
EXITING UPPER LOW...AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SHIFT EAST ON
FRIDAY AS THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE. UNCERTAINTY STILL
EXISTS FOR ANY FLOODING AS MODELS ARE IN MINOR DISAGREEMENT FOR
THE PLACEMENT OF HEAVY RAIN. USED MODEL BLEND OF GFS/NAM FOR POPS
AND HPC FOR QPF.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A FEW SHORTWAVES TOPPING THE RIDGE
BRINGS THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AT LEAST FOR
SATURDAY BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE SMALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MORE CLARITY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH THE LATEST ROUND
OF MODEL GUIDANCE. BY SUN THE SFC LOW FROM THE EARLY WEEKEND DEEPENS
OVER THE PIEDMONT OF VA/NC PULLING THE DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH WITH
IT. IN THE MEANTIME...THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY SETTING UP OVER THE
SRN MS VALLEY WILL BUILD NORTH FURTHER WITH ITS AXIS SHIFTING EAST
THROUGH SUN. THIS WILL WORK TO DEFLECT AN ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WELL NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN AT OR EVEN
JUST ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL LOOKING AT THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST OHIO THIS AFTERNOON...LESS TO THE NORTH.
KEPT PREVAILING SHRA AT ZZV/MGW AND HAVE ONLY VCTS MENTIONED TO
THE NORTH. IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORM. SHOULD SEE A DECREASE
IN COVERAGE WITH LOSS OF HEATING DURING THE EVENING. PUT IN MVFR
FOG AT SOME LOCATIONS LATE. WILL NEED TO WATCH EASTERN OHIO LATE
TONIGHT FOR POSSIBLE INTRUSION OF MCS. ZZV WOULD HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF BEING AFFECTED.


OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211825
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
225 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS NOW
MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. ADDED LIKELY POPS TO THE
NORTH AS UPPER WAVE PASSES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS AMPLE CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS PITTSBURGH AND SOUTH. HENCE...OPTIMAL
DAYTIME HEATING WILL NOT OCCUR IN THAT REGION...HOWEVER...INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL AID IN INSTABILITY YIELDING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TO THE NORTH...SUFFICIENT HEATING DUE TO LESS
CLOUDS HAVE RAMPED UP INSTABILITY. RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS RELATIVELY
STRONGER SHEAR IN THIS ZONE AS WELL. THEREFORE...ISOLATED STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF
PITTSBURGH.

GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WANE LATER IN THE
EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING. SOME SHOWERS MAY STILL LINGER
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE
BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION FROM A WEAKENING AND
EXITING UPPER LOW...AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SHIFT EAST ON
FRIDAY AS THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE. UNCERTAINTY STILL
EXISTS FOR ANY FLOODING AS MODELS ARE IN MINOR DISAGREEMENT FOR
THE PLACEMENT OF HEAVY RAIN. USED MODEL BLEND OF GFS/NAM FOR POPS
AND HPC FOR QPF.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A FEW SHORTWAVES TOPPING THE RIDGE
BRINGS THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AT LEAST FOR
SATURDAY BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE SMALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MORE CLARITY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH THE LATEST ROUND
OF MODEL GUIDANCE. BY SUN THE SFC LOW FROM THE EARLY WEEKEND DEEPENS
OVER THE PIEDMONT OF VA/NC PULLING THE DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH WITH
IT. IN THE MEANTIME...THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY SETTING UP OVER THE
SRN MS VALLEY WILL BUILD NORTH FURTHER WITH ITS AXIS SHIFTING EAST
THROUGH SUN. THIS WILL WORK TO DEFLECT AN ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WELL NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN AT OR EVEN
JUST ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL LOOKING AT THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST OHIO THIS AFTERNOON...LESS TO THE NORTH.
KEPT PREVAILING SHRA AT ZZV/MGW AND HAVE ONLY VCTS MENTIONED TO
THE NORTH. IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORM. SHOULD SEE A DECREASE
IN COVERAGE WITH LOSS OF HEATING DURING THE EVENING. PUT IN MVFR
FOG AT SOME LOCATIONS LATE. WILL NEED TO WATCH EASTERN OHIO LATE
TONIGHT FOR POSSIBLE INTRUSION OF MCS. ZZV WOULD HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF BEING AFFECTED.


OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211825
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
225 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS NOW
MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. ADDED LIKELY POPS TO THE
NORTH AS UPPER WAVE PASSES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS AMPLE CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS PITTSBURGH AND SOUTH. HENCE...OPTIMAL
DAYTIME HEATING WILL NOT OCCUR IN THAT REGION...HOWEVER...INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL AID IN INSTABILITY YIELDING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TO THE NORTH...SUFFICIENT HEATING DUE TO LESS
CLOUDS HAVE RAMPED UP INSTABILITY. RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS RELATIVELY
STRONGER SHEAR IN THIS ZONE AS WELL. THEREFORE...ISOLATED STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF
PITTSBURGH.

GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WANE LATER IN THE
EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING. SOME SHOWERS MAY STILL LINGER
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE
BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION FROM A WEAKENING AND
EXITING UPPER LOW...AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SHIFT EAST ON
FRIDAY AS THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE. UNCERTAINTY STILL
EXISTS FOR ANY FLOODING AS MODELS ARE IN MINOR DISAGREEMENT FOR
THE PLACEMENT OF HEAVY RAIN. USED MODEL BLEND OF GFS/NAM FOR POPS
AND HPC FOR QPF.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A FEW SHORTWAVES TOPPING THE RIDGE
BRINGS THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AT LEAST FOR
SATURDAY BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE SMALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MORE CLARITY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH THE LATEST ROUND
OF MODEL GUIDANCE. BY SUN THE SFC LOW FROM THE EARLY WEEKEND DEEPENS
OVER THE PIEDMONT OF VA/NC PULLING THE DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH WITH
IT. IN THE MEANTIME...THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY SETTING UP OVER THE
SRN MS VALLEY WILL BUILD NORTH FURTHER WITH ITS AXIS SHIFTING EAST
THROUGH SUN. THIS WILL WORK TO DEFLECT AN ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WELL NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN AT OR EVEN
JUST ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL LOOKING AT THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST OHIO THIS AFTERNOON...LESS TO THE NORTH.
KEPT PREVAILING SHRA AT ZZV/MGW AND HAVE ONLY VCTS MENTIONED TO
THE NORTH. IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORM. SHOULD SEE A DECREASE
IN COVERAGE WITH LOSS OF HEATING DURING THE EVENING. PUT IN MVFR
FOG AT SOME LOCATIONS LATE. WILL NEED TO WATCH EASTERN OHIO LATE
TONIGHT FOR POSSIBLE INTRUSION OF MCS. ZZV WOULD HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF BEING AFFECTED.


OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211745
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
145 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND IS SLOW TO
BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WARM FRONT HAS STALLED OVR THE FA...AND WILL RMN NRLY STATIONARY
TDA. EXPECT VRB CLDS TO PCLDY AGN TDA AS MORNING FOG/STRATUS
DISSIPATES. MOST OF THE DAY XPCD TO BE PCPN FREE.
HEATING...MODEST DEWPTS (FOR MID AUG) AND CONVERGENCE INVOF
STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY (OVR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF FA) XPCD TO RESULT
IN ISOLD TO PSBLY SCT CONVECTION BY LT THIS AFTN/EVE. WEAKENING
S/W FM THE WNW MAY BRING CONVECTION INTO FAR WNW AREAS LT IN THE
DAY AS WELL. HI TEMPS FM THE M80S AT THE CST...TO THE U80S TO L90S
INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NW FLO ALOFT RMNS FM TNGT INTO THE WKND...W/ SERIES OF WK IMPULSES
PASSING THROUGH THE RGN. INITIAL IMPULSE (WKNG S/W) MAY KEEP AT
LEAST ISOLD CONVECTION OVR THE FA TNGT. A 2ND WK S/W PUSHES
THROUGH THE FA ON FRI WILL PTNTL FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLD/SCT
CONVECTION BY AFTN/EVE HRS.

A MORE VIGOROUS WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE REGION FRI NGT INTO SAT AS
SFC BNDRY RMNS OVR THE FA. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE BEST CHC OF AND
GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD DUE TO MORE FAVORABLE/STRONGER UPPER
JET SUPPORT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY BEGINS
TO PUSH S TOWARD MDATLC RGN BY LT IN THE DAY. THIS WILL PUSH THE
REMNANT FRONT BACK S OF THE AREA.

HI TEMPS FRI MNLY IN THE M/U80S FRI...THEN FM THE L/M80S ON SAT
(PSBLY U70S ALG THE ATLC BEACHES ON THE ERN SHORE). LO TEMPS MNLY
BE IN THE U60S TO L70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DECREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP AND NEAR SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST.

UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CNTRL CONUS AND LOW PRESSURE/TROUGHING OFF THE NE COAST. FLOW
REMAINS BLOCKED OVER ERN CANADA AND THE NERN US...RESULTING IN
LITTLE PROGRESSION OF THE CNTRL CONUS RIDGE THRU THE PERIOD. THE
RESULT WILL BE ONGOING NWLY FLOW INTO THE EARLY PERIOD. BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL PUSH WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA SUN AS THE TROUGH
AMPLIFIES ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
SLIGHTLY WETTER SUN AFTER PREVIOUSLY BRINGING IN DRIER AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE STATES WILL RIDGE SWD OVER
THE LOCAL AREA IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH SUBSIDENCE INDICATED IN
MODEL SOUNDINGS. MOISTURE ALSO LOOKS TO BE ON THE DOWNTREND AS MODEL
DERIVED PWATS DROP BELOW 1.5 INCHES. WITH THAT SAID...SUN MAY END UP
BEING DRY...BUT WILL RETAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT AND
COASTAL AREAS AS DISTURBANCES IN NWLY FLOW AND MODEL UNCERTAINTY
DECREASE CONFIDENCE. BETTER CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS HEADING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE CNTRL CONUS HIGH BEGINS TO NUDGE IN FROM
THE WEST AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WINS OUT. BEST MOISTURE ALSO GETS
SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. TREND CONTINUES INTO TUES AND WEDS AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WIN OUT.

ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD DAYTIME TEMPS GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THRU TUES (-1 STD DEV FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR). RETURN FLOW ON WEDS AND WARMING THICKNESSES PUSH TEMPS BACK
INTO THE MID 80S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S THRU THE PERIOD
AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE AREA.
A STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THESE FRONTS COMBINED WITH A MOIST AIR MASS WILL TRIGGER
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE NUMEROUS ON FRIDAY. WITH A
SEA BREEZE AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE EASTERN PART OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME THESE BUT THESE SHOULD END BY AROUND 00Z.
OUT TO THE WEST SEVERAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ARE MOVING
TOWARD THE AREA. THESE SHOUDL DIMINISH AS THEY CROSS THE MOUNTAIN
BUT COULD STILL TRIGGER A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NEAR KRIC THIS
EVENING. THE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST WILL PRODUCE PLENTY OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD PREVENT ANY WIDE
SPREAD FOG FROM FORMING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT
CLEARING WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.
WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MAINLY SOME EAST
WINDS NEAR THE COAST AND SOUTHWEST INLAND. ALL AREAS WILL SWITCH
TO NORTH OR NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. A STATIONARY FRNT WILL
REMAIN JUST INLAND TDA OVR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL LEAD
TO LGT WINDS OVR ALL WTRS (AOB 10 KT) OUT OF THE S/SE. EXPECT MAINLY
2 FT SEAS (3 FT THIS MORNG OUT 20NM). THE FRNT STALLS OVR THE WTRS
TNGT AS A WAVE OF LO PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRNT...VEERING WINDS
BEHIND THE LO TO AVG OUT OF THE N ON FRI. HI PRES OVR THE NE STATES
RIDGES SWD OVR THE WTRS FRI NGT INTO SAT AS LO PRES PUSHES OFF THE
NC COAST. A STRENGTHENING PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
NELY WINDS OVER THE CSTAL WTRS LATE FRI NGT THRU SAT. HI PRES
REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE NE CST THRU ERLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. ATTM...SPEEDS APPEAR TO REMAIN
SUB-SCA...BUT SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BLD TO 4-5 FT LATE SAT THRU
MON.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS/JAB
MARINE...MAS






000
FXUS61 KPHI 211613
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1213 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM LAKE ONTARIO TO VIRGINIA PRODUCES OCCASIONALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER HERE THROUGH FRIDAY. QUEBEC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
OUR PRIMARY WEATHER INFLUENCE LATER THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH SETTLES SOUTHWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1210 PM ESTF HAS REDUCED RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE COAST COMPLETELY
THIS AFTERNOON. ENHANCED WORDING CONTINUES AND SLIGHTLY EXPANDED
IN E PA AND N 2/3RDS NJ IN PART DUE TO THE 12Z NAM/GFS AND PRIOR
ECMWF MASS FIELD PREDICTORS. THE EXTRA CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER
THAN MODELED SFC DEWPOINTS IN SE PA N MD ALSO SUGGEST GREATER
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY FOR MID AFTN DEVELOPMENT.

12Z SOUNDING FROM IAD/WAL/APG AND OKX REVIEWED. MAX TEMPS 83-86.

UNSETTLED WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND SMALL
HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS (G35KT)...PARTICULARLY NE PA AND NW
NJ...AND THINKING AKIN TO THE 00Z/21 NSSL WRF AN IN WEAK WAA AHEAD
OF THE SFC TROUGH IN CENTRAL PA. THAT DOESN`T RULE OUT THE DELMARVA
BUT FOR SOME TIME NOW...IT APPEARS INSTABILITY AND PROXIMITY TO
THE COLD TROUGH ALOFT HAS FOCUSED NORTH RATHER THAN SOUTH. PWAT
NEAR 1.5 INCHES. MLCAPE 1200J. MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK SHEAR.

OTRW...A NICE DAY WITH TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER
MIXED SUN AND CLOUDS. THERE IS STILL MUCH MORE LOW CLOUDINESS OVER
SE PA...NE MD AND N DE THIS MORNING THAN ANTICIPATED YDY. THIS
SHOULD START THINNING AND LIFTING BY NOON.

PLEASE FOLLOW ANY UPDATED SWOMCD`S SWODY1 AND LOCAL PHI PRODUCTS.

TONIGHT...A COUPLE OF BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE
STILL UNSTABLE AIRMASS. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE.

NOTING THE 12Z NAM CONTG A THEME OF 2INCH HOURLY TSTMS SOMEWHERE
IN E CENTRAL PA INTO CENTRAL NJ THIS EVENING. WHILE THE PLACEMENT
IS POSSIBLY WRONG...THE IDEA I THINK IS CORRECT. A PTN OF E CENTRAL
OR NE PA IN N OR CENTRAL NJ SHOULD RECEIVE SOME STRONG TSTORMS
VERY LATE THIS AFTN OR EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
1000J OF MLCAPE AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR CUES INTEREST
IN CONVECTION FRI AFTN. SREF HAS DECENT PROBS FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
E PA...S NJ AND THE DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE REGION REMAINS UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE STOUT RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, AND THE OTHER HIGH REMAINS OVER EASTERN CANADA. WITH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW, EXPECT A FEW EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO BRING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE TIMING
OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS SOUTH.
WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ADVECTION, COULD SEE HIGHS ESPECIALLY
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BY TUESDAY
HOWEVER, THE HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT OFF SHORE, LEAVING THE REGION
UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LEADING TO A MODEST WARMING TREND. HOWEVER,
ALSO TOWARDS THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS DIFFER GREATLY ON THE TIMING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE PROPAGATING EAST ON THE
HEALS OF THE HIGH. STILL, BOTH SOLUTIONS SHOW THESE FEATURES JUST
BEYOND THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...MVFR CIGS IN E PA NE MD AND N DE THROUGH 17 OR 18Z
LINGERLING LONGER THAN EXPECTED OTRW VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT THIS
AFTERNOON BUT LOCAL IFR CONDS IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN.
LIGHT SOUTH WIND. BUT A NW WIND GUST TO 35 KT POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED
WITH A LATE AFTN TSTM NEAR AND N OF KABE.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS MAY DEGRADE TO MVFR CONDS IN FOG LATE. IFR
CONDS IN LEFTOVER EARLY NIGHT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

FRIDAY...CIGS 2500-4000 FT WITH LOWER IFR CONDS IN SCT SHOWERS AND
TSTMS AND A WIND TURNING LIGHT EASTERLY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. UNDER ANY TSRA MVFR CEILINGS AND
BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SEAS
3 FEET OR LESS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS BECOMING
EASTERLY FRIDAY.

WE`VE NOT SEEN ANY NEW MAREPS THIS WEEK FROM MARINERS IN OUR EASY
USE (INTERNET AND/OR SMART PHONE) LINK WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/MAROBSFORM
THIS HAS BEEN DERIVED FOR THE MARINER TO EASILY POST INFO INSTANTLY
TO THE NWS FOR USE IN OUR MARINE PRODUCTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...SCA NE WIND GUSTS MAY DEVELOP LATE AT NIGHT ON THE
ATLC WATERS.

SATURDAY...OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25 KT AND WAVE HEIGHTS APPROACHING
5 FT ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS AND WINDS SLOWLY FALLING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY MORNING AND SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE RCD INQUIRY ON HOW THE CLIMATE PROGRAM SELECTS FOR OUR 530 PM
CLI. OUR PROGRAM SEARCHES MAX/MIN TEMP DATA FOR THE DAY ENDING 5PM
SHARP. THAT DATA IS INGESTED INTO THE 530 PM POSTED CLI. IF A MAX
TEMP OCCURS THEREAFTER...IT IS REFLECTED IN THE END OF DAY SUMMARY
POSTS AROUND 230 AM EDT THE NEXT DAY AND ALSO YOU CAN CHECK THE 8
PM RTPPHI WHICH POSTS AROUND 815 PM EDT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG 213
SHORT TERM...DRAG 1213
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON 1213
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 211613
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1213 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM LAKE ONTARIO TO VIRGINIA PRODUCES OCCASIONALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER HERE THROUGH FRIDAY. QUEBEC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
OUR PRIMARY WEATHER INFLUENCE LATER THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH SETTLES SOUTHWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1210 PM ESTF HAS REDUCED RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE COAST COMPLETELY
THIS AFTERNOON. ENHANCED WORDING CONTINUES AND SLIGHTLY EXPANDED
IN E PA AND N 2/3RDS NJ IN PART DUE TO THE 12Z NAM/GFS AND PRIOR
ECMWF MASS FIELD PREDICTORS. THE EXTRA CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER
THAN MODELED SFC DEWPOINTS IN SE PA N MD ALSO SUGGEST GREATER
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY FOR MID AFTN DEVELOPMENT.

12Z SOUNDING FROM IAD/WAL/APG AND OKX REVIEWED. MAX TEMPS 83-86.

UNSETTLED WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND SMALL
HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS (G35KT)...PARTICULARLY NE PA AND NW
NJ...AND THINKING AKIN TO THE 00Z/21 NSSL WRF AN IN WEAK WAA AHEAD
OF THE SFC TROUGH IN CENTRAL PA. THAT DOESN`T RULE OUT THE DELMARVA
BUT FOR SOME TIME NOW...IT APPEARS INSTABILITY AND PROXIMITY TO
THE COLD TROUGH ALOFT HAS FOCUSED NORTH RATHER THAN SOUTH. PWAT
NEAR 1.5 INCHES. MLCAPE 1200J. MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK SHEAR.

OTRW...A NICE DAY WITH TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER
MIXED SUN AND CLOUDS. THERE IS STILL MUCH MORE LOW CLOUDINESS OVER
SE PA...NE MD AND N DE THIS MORNING THAN ANTICIPATED YDY. THIS
SHOULD START THINNING AND LIFTING BY NOON.

PLEASE FOLLOW ANY UPDATED SWOMCD`S SWODY1 AND LOCAL PHI PRODUCTS.

TONIGHT...A COUPLE OF BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE
STILL UNSTABLE AIRMASS. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE.

NOTING THE 12Z NAM CONTG A THEME OF 2INCH HOURLY TSTMS SOMEWHERE
IN E CENTRAL PA INTO CENTRAL NJ THIS EVENING. WHILE THE PLACEMENT
IS POSSIBLY WRONG...THE IDEA I THINK IS CORRECT. A PTN OF E CENTRAL
OR NE PA IN N OR CENTRAL NJ SHOULD RECEIVE SOME STRONG TSTORMS
VERY LATE THIS AFTN OR EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
1000J OF MLCAPE AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR CUES INTEREST
IN CONVECTION FRI AFTN. SREF HAS DECENT PROBS FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
E PA...S NJ AND THE DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE REGION REMAINS UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE STOUT RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, AND THE OTHER HIGH REMAINS OVER EASTERN CANADA. WITH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW, EXPECT A FEW EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO BRING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE TIMING
OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS SOUTH.
WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ADVECTION, COULD SEE HIGHS ESPECIALLY
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BY TUESDAY
HOWEVER, THE HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT OFF SHORE, LEAVING THE REGION
UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LEADING TO A MODEST WARMING TREND. HOWEVER,
ALSO TOWARDS THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS DIFFER GREATLY ON THE TIMING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE PROPAGATING EAST ON THE
HEALS OF THE HIGH. STILL, BOTH SOLUTIONS SHOW THESE FEATURES JUST
BEYOND THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...MVFR CIGS IN E PA NE MD AND N DE THROUGH 17 OR 18Z
LINGERLING LONGER THAN EXPECTED OTRW VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT THIS
AFTERNOON BUT LOCAL IFR CONDS IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN.
LIGHT SOUTH WIND. BUT A NW WIND GUST TO 35 KT POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED
WITH A LATE AFTN TSTM NEAR AND N OF KABE.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS MAY DEGRADE TO MVFR CONDS IN FOG LATE. IFR
CONDS IN LEFTOVER EARLY NIGHT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

FRIDAY...CIGS 2500-4000 FT WITH LOWER IFR CONDS IN SCT SHOWERS AND
TSTMS AND A WIND TURNING LIGHT EASTERLY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. UNDER ANY TSRA MVFR CEILINGS AND
BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SEAS
3 FEET OR LESS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS BECOMING
EASTERLY FRIDAY.

WE`VE NOT SEEN ANY NEW MAREPS THIS WEEK FROM MARINERS IN OUR EASY
USE (INTERNET AND/OR SMART PHONE) LINK WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/MAROBSFORM
THIS HAS BEEN DERIVED FOR THE MARINER TO EASILY POST INFO INSTANTLY
TO THE NWS FOR USE IN OUR MARINE PRODUCTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...SCA NE WIND GUSTS MAY DEVELOP LATE AT NIGHT ON THE
ATLC WATERS.

SATURDAY...OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25 KT AND WAVE HEIGHTS APPROACHING
5 FT ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS AND WINDS SLOWLY FALLING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY MORNING AND SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE RCD INQUIRY ON HOW THE CLIMATE PROGRAM SELECTS FOR OUR 530 PM
CLI. OUR PROGRAM SEARCHES MAX/MIN TEMP DATA FOR THE DAY ENDING 5PM
SHARP. THAT DATA IS INGESTED INTO THE 530 PM POSTED CLI. IF A MAX
TEMP OCCURS THEREAFTER...IT IS REFLECTED IN THE END OF DAY SUMMARY
POSTS AROUND 230 AM EDT THE NEXT DAY AND ALSO YOU CAN CHECK THE 8
PM RTPPHI WHICH POSTS AROUND 815 PM EDT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG 213
SHORT TERM...DRAG 1213
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON 1213
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON
CLIMATE...







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