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000
FXUS61 KPHI 020803
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
403 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
WHILE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVES ALONG IT TODAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN TANDEM SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
OVER THE WEEKEND, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
SAG FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD
PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. THEN A COLD FRONT FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHOULD REACH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH THIS MORNING,
BEFORE STALLING OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTH. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA, BUT WE WILL REMAIN ON
THE NORTHERN EDGE. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL
SLIDE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE DAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA. THERE IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY, BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING TODAY AS WELL. PW
VALUES INCREASE TO 1.5-2.0 INCHES, SO ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE PRETTY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF SHEAR, DUE TO THE LIMITED INSTABILITY, WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH/IF
ANY SEVERE WEATHER, ALTHOUGH ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS.

HIGHS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND BLENDED 925 MB ECMWF
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED OUT TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT, WHILE THE LOW
PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY MOVES EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT
AND PASSES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. THERE REMAINS A COUPLE OF SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, MAINLY SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA.
INSTABILITY WANES EVEN MORE OVERNIGHT, BUT WE WILL KEEP ISOLATED
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS THERE MAY STILL BE SOME RUMBLES OF
THUNDER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

LOWS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZED BETTER IN THE EAST, WHILE THE GFS
INITIALIZED BETTER IN THE WEST AT 500MB. AT 850MB THE WRF-NMMB
WAS OVERALL BETTER WHILE IT WAS EQUAL BILLING AT 925MB. DP/DT
THE RIDGE OUT WEST CONTINUES TO VERIFY STRONGER WITH OVERALL
MORE AMPLITUDE TO THE 500MB FLOW. CONVERSELY THE DP/DT ON THE
FRIDAY SFC WAVE ON THE GFS WAS WEAKER.

THERE IS SLIGHTLY CLOSER MODELING CONSENSUS WITH THE LATE WEEK
SYSTEM. THERE IS STILL A WAY TO GO AS TO WHEN, BUT NONE OF
THE MODELS ARE DRY IN THIS PERIOD. APPLYING A CORRECTION FACTOR
OF TIMING, THE ECMWF APPEARS TOO SLOW GIVEN THAT NEARLY ALL OF THE
PLAYERS ARE ALREADY IN THE CONUS. THE GFS APPEARS TOO FAST GIVEN
THE HIGHER VERIFYING AMPLITUDE FLOW, WHILE THE WRF-NMMB MAY BE
SHOWING ITS NORTHWARD BIAS. ITS NOW THE FURTHEST NORTH MODEL.
PMDHMD SUGGESTS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WHICH WE ARE FOLLOWING TO IRON
SOME OF THE DIFFERENCES. THE LATITUDINAL EXTENT HAS IMPLICATIONS
AS THERE WILL BE SOME HEAVY RAIN CLOSER TO THE WAVE TRAIN.

THUS ON FRIDAY WE SLOWED THE GFS SOLUTION DOWN BY ABOUT 6 HOURS
WHICH IS A BEST FIT TIMING. THUNDER WAS CLOSE TO PREDICTED 925MB
AND 850MB INSTABILITY ALOFT (SFC BASED CAPE NOT MUCH AT ALL) AND
NEAR SWODY2 DELINEATION. BECAUSE OF THE SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PCPN,
MAX TEMPS ARE HIGHER THAN GFS MOS.

FRIDAY NIGHT, GREATEST NORTHWESTWARD EXTENT OF PCPN CHANCES
IN OUR CWA. MENTION OF THUNDER WAS ONLY KEPT WELL SOUTH AGAIN
FOLLOWING SHOWALTER AND 925MB GUIDANCE.

FOR SATURDAY WE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN MOST OF OUR CWA AS A TIMING
HEDGE OF THE DEPARTING SFC LOW IN THE MORNING. ALSO
BECAUSE OF THE SHORT WAVE IN THE ALBEIT FLATTENING 500MB FLOW
FOR THE AFTERNOON. UNLESS ALL MODEL TIMING IS TOO SLOW, THE DAY
IN GENERAL SHOULD BE IMPROVING AS IT GOES ALONG. THE ONSHORE FLOW
WOULD KEEP COASTAL AREAS CLOUDIER LONGER.

THEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES OFFSHORE AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE SAME FOR MONDAY AS THE HIGH
DRIFTS ACROSS OUR CWA.

FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM, NOT MUCH CHANGE. OLD BOUNDARIES
NEVER SEEM TO GO AWAY IN THE SUMMER AND THE ECMWF IN PARTICULAR
BRINGS IT NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT SHOULD
COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO US FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO BRING A SECOND
SOURCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL. THIS CHANGES STARTING WITH THE DAYTIME
HIGHS ON SUNDAY AS THEY SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM. GIVEN WE REMAIN IN THE WESTERLIES, WHILE
WARM, IT DOES NOT LOOK OPPRESSIVELY HOT OR VERY HUMID.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PATCHY MIST/FOG IS DEVELOPING AT MANY AIRPORTS EARLY THIS MORNING,
REDUCING VSBYS TO MVFR RANGE, WITH SOME IFR. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF
AFTER SUNRISE, AND LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
AND THE DELMARVA TODAY. IT IS POSSIBLE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY
DEVELOP AS WELL, BUT FOR NOW WE`VE ONLY INCLUDED SHRA IN THE TAFS
FOR ACY/MIV. ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO AFFECT A TAF SITE
COULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE VSBYS/CIGS, BUT WE HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE
LOWER CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM AND
SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. ONCE THE WIND PICKS UP
A DIRECTION, TAFS ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD HAVE MORE OF A WEST-
SOUTHWEST WIND, WHILE TAFS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD HAVE MORE OF AN
EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND, AND THE CENTRAL TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE MORE OF A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND.

MORE MIST/FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS NORTHERN AIRPORTS/TERMINALS, POSSIBLY
BECOMING MVFR SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR SUB VFR
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND IN DELMARVA. IMPROVEMENT AS THE DAY CONTINUES SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG TO OUR SOUTH THIS
MORNING, BEFORE STALLING OUT THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS, AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS AS WELL AT 3-4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THE STALLED FRONT, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD
OCCUR ON THE OCEAN WATERS. HIGHER CHANCES SOUTHERN WATERS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE INCREASES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE ONSHORE FLOW COMBINING WITH RATHER ROBUST SPRING TIDES
FOLLOWING THE FULL MOON MIGHT CAUSE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE
EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON FRIDAY (THE MORE LIKELY ONE) AND
SATURDAY. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE DEPARTING WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE COMBINATION OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AND THE FULL MOON IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THE STRENGTH OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON SUNDAY. WE THINK THAT ONE OR
BOTH DAYS COULD REACH MODERATE RISK LEVELS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 020803
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
403 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
WHILE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVES ALONG IT TODAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN TANDEM SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
OVER THE WEEKEND, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
SAG FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD
PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. THEN A COLD FRONT FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHOULD REACH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH THIS MORNING,
BEFORE STALLING OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTH. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA, BUT WE WILL REMAIN ON
THE NORTHERN EDGE. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL
SLIDE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE DAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA. THERE IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY, BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING TODAY AS WELL. PW
VALUES INCREASE TO 1.5-2.0 INCHES, SO ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE PRETTY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF SHEAR, DUE TO THE LIMITED INSTABILITY, WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH/IF
ANY SEVERE WEATHER, ALTHOUGH ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS.

HIGHS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND BLENDED 925 MB ECMWF
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED OUT TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT, WHILE THE LOW
PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY MOVES EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT
AND PASSES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. THERE REMAINS A COUPLE OF SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, MAINLY SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA.
INSTABILITY WANES EVEN MORE OVERNIGHT, BUT WE WILL KEEP ISOLATED
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS THERE MAY STILL BE SOME RUMBLES OF
THUNDER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

LOWS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZED BETTER IN THE EAST, WHILE THE GFS
INITIALIZED BETTER IN THE WEST AT 500MB. AT 850MB THE WRF-NMMB
WAS OVERALL BETTER WHILE IT WAS EQUAL BILLING AT 925MB. DP/DT
THE RIDGE OUT WEST CONTINUES TO VERIFY STRONGER WITH OVERALL
MORE AMPLITUDE TO THE 500MB FLOW. CONVERSELY THE DP/DT ON THE
FRIDAY SFC WAVE ON THE GFS WAS WEAKER.

THERE IS SLIGHTLY CLOSER MODELING CONSENSUS WITH THE LATE WEEK
SYSTEM. THERE IS STILL A WAY TO GO AS TO WHEN, BUT NONE OF
THE MODELS ARE DRY IN THIS PERIOD. APPLYING A CORRECTION FACTOR
OF TIMING, THE ECMWF APPEARS TOO SLOW GIVEN THAT NEARLY ALL OF THE
PLAYERS ARE ALREADY IN THE CONUS. THE GFS APPEARS TOO FAST GIVEN
THE HIGHER VERIFYING AMPLITUDE FLOW, WHILE THE WRF-NMMB MAY BE
SHOWING ITS NORTHWARD BIAS. ITS NOW THE FURTHEST NORTH MODEL.
PMDHMD SUGGESTS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WHICH WE ARE FOLLOWING TO IRON
SOME OF THE DIFFERENCES. THE LATITUDINAL EXTENT HAS IMPLICATIONS
AS THERE WILL BE SOME HEAVY RAIN CLOSER TO THE WAVE TRAIN.

THUS ON FRIDAY WE SLOWED THE GFS SOLUTION DOWN BY ABOUT 6 HOURS
WHICH IS A BEST FIT TIMING. THUNDER WAS CLOSE TO PREDICTED 925MB
AND 850MB INSTABILITY ALOFT (SFC BASED CAPE NOT MUCH AT ALL) AND
NEAR SWODY2 DELINEATION. BECAUSE OF THE SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PCPN,
MAX TEMPS ARE HIGHER THAN GFS MOS.

FRIDAY NIGHT, GREATEST NORTHWESTWARD EXTENT OF PCPN CHANCES
IN OUR CWA. MENTION OF THUNDER WAS ONLY KEPT WELL SOUTH AGAIN
FOLLOWING SHOWALTER AND 925MB GUIDANCE.

FOR SATURDAY WE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN MOST OF OUR CWA AS A TIMING
HEDGE OF THE DEPARTING SFC LOW IN THE MORNING. ALSO
BECAUSE OF THE SHORT WAVE IN THE ALBEIT FLATTENING 500MB FLOW
FOR THE AFTERNOON. UNLESS ALL MODEL TIMING IS TOO SLOW, THE DAY
IN GENERAL SHOULD BE IMPROVING AS IT GOES ALONG. THE ONSHORE FLOW
WOULD KEEP COASTAL AREAS CLOUDIER LONGER.

THEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES OFFSHORE AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE SAME FOR MONDAY AS THE HIGH
DRIFTS ACROSS OUR CWA.

FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM, NOT MUCH CHANGE. OLD BOUNDARIES
NEVER SEEM TO GO AWAY IN THE SUMMER AND THE ECMWF IN PARTICULAR
BRINGS IT NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT SHOULD
COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO US FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO BRING A SECOND
SOURCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL. THIS CHANGES STARTING WITH THE DAYTIME
HIGHS ON SUNDAY AS THEY SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM. GIVEN WE REMAIN IN THE WESTERLIES, WHILE
WARM, IT DOES NOT LOOK OPPRESSIVELY HOT OR VERY HUMID.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PATCHY MIST/FOG IS DEVELOPING AT MANY AIRPORTS EARLY THIS MORNING,
REDUCING VSBYS TO MVFR RANGE, WITH SOME IFR. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF
AFTER SUNRISE, AND LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
AND THE DELMARVA TODAY. IT IS POSSIBLE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY
DEVELOP AS WELL, BUT FOR NOW WE`VE ONLY INCLUDED SHRA IN THE TAFS
FOR ACY/MIV. ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO AFFECT A TAF SITE
COULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE VSBYS/CIGS, BUT WE HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE
LOWER CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM AND
SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. ONCE THE WIND PICKS UP
A DIRECTION, TAFS ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD HAVE MORE OF A WEST-
SOUTHWEST WIND, WHILE TAFS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD HAVE MORE OF AN
EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND, AND THE CENTRAL TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE MORE OF A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND.

MORE MIST/FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS NORTHERN AIRPORTS/TERMINALS, POSSIBLY
BECOMING MVFR SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR SUB VFR
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND IN DELMARVA. IMPROVEMENT AS THE DAY CONTINUES SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG TO OUR SOUTH THIS
MORNING, BEFORE STALLING OUT THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS, AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS AS WELL AT 3-4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THE STALLED FRONT, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD
OCCUR ON THE OCEAN WATERS. HIGHER CHANCES SOUTHERN WATERS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE INCREASES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE ONSHORE FLOW COMBINING WITH RATHER ROBUST SPRING TIDES
FOLLOWING THE FULL MOON MIGHT CAUSE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE
EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON FRIDAY (THE MORE LIKELY ONE) AND
SATURDAY. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE DEPARTING WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE COMBINATION OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AND THE FULL MOON IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THE STRENGTH OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON SUNDAY. WE THINK THAT ONE OR
BOTH DAYS COULD REACH MODERATE RISK LEVELS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KLWX 020800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN
MARYLAND THROUGH TODAY...AND LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG
THE FRONT AS AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VIRGINIA WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DEW POINTS HAVE
LOWERED A BIT AS THE CANADIAN AIR HAS GRADUALLY PUSHED INTO THE
REGION. OF NOTE IS THAT MUCH OF THE REDUCED VISIBILITY (REDUCED AS
IN BELOW 10 MILES) BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE REGION IS PROBABLY
DUE TO SOME CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE WHICH HAS WORKED ITS WAY
SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT.

MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT STALLING OUT IN SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
TODAY. ONE OR MORE WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE ARE ALSO PROGGED TO
MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A
COUPLE OF WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
FAST FLOW ALOFT. THE EXACT AMOUNT OF NORTHWARD MOTION WITH THE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH EACH WAVE IS IN QUESTION...WITH THE
MORE MESO-SCALE NAM AND RGEM KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
SOUTH OF DC/BALTIMORE METRO CLOSER TO THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MORE
GENEROUS AND BRING SOME SHOWERS INTO THE METRO. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY...KEPT POPS IN THE METRO AREAS BELOW 50 PERCENT. THERE
IS SOME INSTABILITY...SO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WITH OUR REGION BEING
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT THINK THEY SHOULD BE PRETTY
ISOLATED WITH MOST ACTIVITY BEING OF THE NON- THUNDERY TYPE. HIGHS
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY AND DEW POINTS WILL
ALSO BE LOWER...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BE MORE COMMON. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING`S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
RIGHT NOW...THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITAITON ACROSS THE AREA WOULD
APPEAR TO BE FRIDAY...AS A DECENT SHORTWAVE AND VORT MAX MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA SUPPORTING A MORE NOTABLE LOW PRESSURE WAVE AT
THE SURFACE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO HOW
LONG IT LINGERS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME GUIDANCE ALLOWING IT TO
PULL AWAY FAST ENOUGH SO THAT THE REGION DRIES OUT...WHILE OTHER
MODELS KEEP THE SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. FOR NOW KEPT HIGHEST POPS
DURING THE DAY...BUT THE POSSIBILITY OF DECENT PRECIPITATION
DURING FRIDAY NIGHT IS DEFINITELY OF NOTE AND IF THERE IS BETTER
CONSENSUS IN THE FUTURE...POPS MAY CERTAINLY END UP SIGNIFICANTLY
HIGHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL FRIDAY WITH MANY AREAS FAILING
TO REACH 80...WHILE LOWS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO RECENT DAYS.

FOURTH OF JULY...STATIONARY FRONT LINGERING OVER THE AREA (WITH
SHORTWAVES RIDING ALONG IT) MAKES FOR A COMPLICATED FORECAST.
CONSENSUS AMONG 00Z GFS/ECMWF/NAM IS FOR A MORNING LOW TO CROSS
SRN MD/WATERS WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TO CROSS THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL SHIFT
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...TO AN UNCERTAIN EXTENT. FELT THE LIKELY POPS
FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA WAS A BIT HIGH...SO WENT CHANCE MOST
PLACES IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE WEST IN THE
PEAK HEATING...WENT LIKELIES FOR THE POTOMAC/ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS.
MAX TEMPS LIMITED BY STRATO-CU AND ANY PRECIP...GENERALLY LOW 80S
(WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...EXPECT A BIT OF A HEAT INDEX TO
THE MID 80S).

SATURDAY NIGHT...KEY FOR EVENING POP IS PROGRESSION OF WEAK SHORT
WAVE FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND REMAINING INSTABILITY. THOSE
DETAILS WILL BECOME MORE APPARENT WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS...BUT
CURRENT BEST GUESS IS TO HAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA DRIFTS FARTHER SOUTH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS UPR RIDGE BUILDS EAST OVER THE MIDWEST. ANY ISOLATED
TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAY LOOK TO BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN.

QUIET WX TUES UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.

NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES REGION FROM THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY AND
SLOWS WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER INTO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING SHIFTING EASTERLY
BY TONIGHT. VFR CIGS AND VIS OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS...POSSIBLY
MVFR IN SHOWERS OR EVEN VERY BRIEF IFR IN A HEAVIER SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...BUT THESE SHOULD BE ISOLATED. NOTE THAT SOME
DIFFUSE WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM CANADA IS LIKELY TO BE THE PRIMARY
CAUSE OF THE SUB-10 MILE VISIBILITY REPORTS WE ARE SEEING AT MANY
TERMINALS THIS MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING SOME STEADIER RAIN TO THE REGION BY
FRIDAY POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A MORE
SUSTAINED PERIOD OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CIGS/VIS. TIMING AND
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THIS IS STILL IN QUESTION AND SO CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH.

STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS JUST SOUTH OF DC METROS
SATURDAY...BEFORE DRIFTING FARTHER SOUTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY INTO THE EVENING ACROSS
THE TERMINALS. MORNING NELY FLOW 10 TO 15 KT AS LOW PASSES SRN MD.
DIURNALLY ISOLATED SUN/MON. QUIET WX TUES.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA LEVELS TODAY...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
BELOW 10 KNOTS GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO EASTERLY. A FEW HEAVIER
SHOWERS OR EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY...WHICH COULD PRODUCE GUSTIER WINDS...BUT THINK THESE SHOULD
BE UNCOMMON.

WINDS MIGHT INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
AS A LOW PRESSURE WAVE PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH SO DID NOT
ISSUE AN SCA JUST YET...BUT IT MAY BE NEEDED.

WILL NEED TO WATCH A WEAK LOW PASS SRN MD SATURDAY MORNING FOR
NELY GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALL
DAY/EVENING. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS FRONT
DIPS FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA. QUIET TUESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...BAJ/RCM
LONG TERM...BAJ
AVIATION...BAJ/RCM
MARINE...BAJ/RCM



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020744
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
344 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THIS
MORNING...AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A COLD FRNT DROPPING INTO NRN
PORTIONS OF THE FA WITH WINDS BCMG CALM OR NLY NEAR/JUST BEHIND
THE FRNT. THE FRNT BCMS STATIONARY AND LEADS TO SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHRAS/TSTMS THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. FOR TDA...POPS INCREASE THRU
THE DAY TO 50-60% THIS AFTN WITH A MOIST AIRMASS AND PLENTY OF
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING A TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS.
COULD BE SOME STRONG STORMS BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SVR WX
EXPECTED WITH A MSTLY CLOUDY SKY LIMITING INSTABILITY AND TEMPS
BLO NORMAL...HIGHS RANGING THRU THE 80S. MAIN THREAT WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND PSBL MINOR FLOODING...MAINTAINED MENTION
FOR THIS IN THE HWO.

CHANCE OF RAIN INCREASES TO 60-70% TNGT AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FM THE W AND THE MID ATLC SITS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPR-LEVEL JET STREAK. QPF OVER A HALF INCH PSBL
TNGT. LO TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WX CONTINUES INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE SFC
FRNTAL BNDRY REMAINS OVER THE MID ATLC. SHRAS/TSTMS WILL BE AGAIN
LIKELY FRI/FRI NIGHT (60-70% POPS) WITH HI DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
(1000-500 MB RH ~85%) AND STILL SOME UPR-LEVEL FORCING. THE FRNT
STARTS SLIDING S BY LATE FRI NIGHT/SAT WITH LWR POPS SAT THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS BUT STILL A 40-50% CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS OTHER THAN
FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE FA (30%). TOTAL STORM QPF WILL BE ABOUT
1-2" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS DUE TO CONVECTION. DECIDED TO
HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES FOR NOW WITH STILL SOME MODEL
UNCERTAINTY OVER WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR AND
MOST AREAS STAYING BLO FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE. TEMPS BLO NORMAL EACH
DAY...WITH HIGHS AVGG IN THE UPR 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPSTREAM BLOCKING PATTERN RESULTS IN LITTLE MOVEMENT OF OVERALL
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THRU THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A GENERAL BROAD TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG
THE EAST COAST KEEPING CONDITIONS RATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE AND EXTENDED.

WHILE MODELS AGREE ON THE OVERALL PATTERN THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
WITH THE TIMING OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC IS
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. THE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY WITH A TROF LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY. THUS LOOK FOR CHC POPS EACH DAY AS TIMING OF ANY ONE
DISTURBANCE RATHER PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT.
HIGHS SUN IN THE M-U80S...85-90 MON THROUGH WED. LOWS U60S-M70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WK FNTL BNDRY SLOLY SETTLES S ACRS VA/SE MD TDA. AN
AREA OF SHRAS WILL BE CROSSING THE FA THIS MRNG. LO PROB FOR IFR
VSBYS INVOF SBY W/-BEHIND THE WK FNT EARLY THIS MRNG...OTRW MNLY VFR
CONDS. MDLS SHOW A BREAK IN THE SHRAS MIDDAY INTO THIS AFTN. PSBL
ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION BY LT THIS AFTN/EVE. ANOTHER S/W APPROACHES FM
THE W OVRNGT NGT W/ PSBLY ANOTHER RND OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND
IFR/MVFR CONDS. THE FNTL BNDRY RMNS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHRAS/TSTMS...ESP FRI/FRI NGT.
MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF PCPN.

&&

.MARINE...
UNSETTLED WX CONDS XPCD OVR THE WTRS INTO AT LEAST SUN.
WK FNTL BNDRY TO SETTLE S OVR THE VA/MD WTRS TDA...THEN RMN NRLY
STATIONARY INTO SAT (NR HAMPTON RDS). SW WNDS 10 KT OR LESS S OF THE
BNDRY...VRB-NNE WNDS 10 KT OR LESS ALG-N OF THE BNDRY. WAVES IN THE
BAY AVG 1-2 FT AND SEAS ON THE COASTAL WATERS AVG 2-4 FT INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH SUB-SCA CONDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
STALLED FRONT WILL ALSO RESULT IN SEVERAL EPISODES OF SHRAS/TSTMS
INTO SUN. GUSTY WNDS/HEAVY RA PSBL IN ANY STMS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE 2015 CLIMATE:

AT NORFOLK:
*AVG TEMPERATURE OF 78.7 F RANKS AS THE 7TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
*TOTAL PRECIPITATION OF 8.34" RANKS AS 5TH WETTEST ON RECORD.

AT RICHMOND:
*AVG TEMPERATURE OF 77.92 F RANKS AS THE 8TH WARMEST ON RECORD.

PRECIPITATION TOTAL OF 6.05" DID NOT ATTAIN A TOP 10 RANKING AT
RIC AIRPORT...BUT MANY LOCATIONS IN THE METRO AREA...RECEIVED IN
EXCESS OF 10.00 INCHES FOR THE MONTH.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020744
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
344 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THIS
MORNING...AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A COLD FRNT DROPPING INTO NRN
PORTIONS OF THE FA WITH WINDS BCMG CALM OR NLY NEAR/JUST BEHIND
THE FRNT. THE FRNT BCMS STATIONARY AND LEADS TO SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHRAS/TSTMS THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. FOR TDA...POPS INCREASE THRU
THE DAY TO 50-60% THIS AFTN WITH A MOIST AIRMASS AND PLENTY OF
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING A TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS.
COULD BE SOME STRONG STORMS BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SVR WX
EXPECTED WITH A MSTLY CLOUDY SKY LIMITING INSTABILITY AND TEMPS
BLO NORMAL...HIGHS RANGING THRU THE 80S. MAIN THREAT WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND PSBL MINOR FLOODING...MAINTAINED MENTION
FOR THIS IN THE HWO.

CHANCE OF RAIN INCREASES TO 60-70% TNGT AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FM THE W AND THE MID ATLC SITS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPR-LEVEL JET STREAK. QPF OVER A HALF INCH PSBL
TNGT. LO TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WX CONTINUES INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE SFC
FRNTAL BNDRY REMAINS OVER THE MID ATLC. SHRAS/TSTMS WILL BE AGAIN
LIKELY FRI/FRI NIGHT (60-70% POPS) WITH HI DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
(1000-500 MB RH ~85%) AND STILL SOME UPR-LEVEL FORCING. THE FRNT
STARTS SLIDING S BY LATE FRI NIGHT/SAT WITH LWR POPS SAT THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS BUT STILL A 40-50% CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS OTHER THAN
FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE FA (30%). TOTAL STORM QPF WILL BE ABOUT
1-2" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS DUE TO CONVECTION. DECIDED TO
HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES FOR NOW WITH STILL SOME MODEL
UNCERTAINTY OVER WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR AND
MOST AREAS STAYING BLO FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE. TEMPS BLO NORMAL EACH
DAY...WITH HIGHS AVGG IN THE UPR 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPSTREAM BLOCKING PATTERN RESULTS IN LITTLE MOVEMENT OF OVERALL
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THRU THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A GENERAL BROAD TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG
THE EAST COAST KEEPING CONDITIONS RATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE AND EXTENDED.

WHILE MODELS AGREE ON THE OVERALL PATTERN THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
WITH THE TIMING OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC IS
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. THE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY WITH A TROF LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY. THUS LOOK FOR CHC POPS EACH DAY AS TIMING OF ANY ONE
DISTURBANCE RATHER PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT.
HIGHS SUN IN THE M-U80S...85-90 MON THROUGH WED. LOWS U60S-M70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WK FNTL BNDRY SLOLY SETTLES S ACRS VA/SE MD TDA. AN
AREA OF SHRAS WILL BE CROSSING THE FA THIS MRNG. LO PROB FOR IFR
VSBYS INVOF SBY W/-BEHIND THE WK FNT EARLY THIS MRNG...OTRW MNLY VFR
CONDS. MDLS SHOW A BREAK IN THE SHRAS MIDDAY INTO THIS AFTN. PSBL
ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION BY LT THIS AFTN/EVE. ANOTHER S/W APPROACHES FM
THE W OVRNGT NGT W/ PSBLY ANOTHER RND OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND
IFR/MVFR CONDS. THE FNTL BNDRY RMNS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHRAS/TSTMS...ESP FRI/FRI NGT.
MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF PCPN.

&&

.MARINE...
UNSETTLED WX CONDS XPCD OVR THE WTRS INTO AT LEAST SUN.
WK FNTL BNDRY TO SETTLE S OVR THE VA/MD WTRS TDA...THEN RMN NRLY
STATIONARY INTO SAT (NR HAMPTON RDS). SW WNDS 10 KT OR LESS S OF THE
BNDRY...VRB-NNE WNDS 10 KT OR LESS ALG-N OF THE BNDRY. WAVES IN THE
BAY AVG 1-2 FT AND SEAS ON THE COASTAL WATERS AVG 2-4 FT INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH SUB-SCA CONDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
STALLED FRONT WILL ALSO RESULT IN SEVERAL EPISODES OF SHRAS/TSTMS
INTO SUN. GUSTY WNDS/HEAVY RA PSBL IN ANY STMS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE 2015 CLIMATE:

AT NORFOLK:
*AVG TEMPERATURE OF 78.7 F RANKS AS THE 7TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
*TOTAL PRECIPITATION OF 8.34" RANKS AS 5TH WETTEST ON RECORD.

AT RICHMOND:
*AVG TEMPERATURE OF 77.92 F RANKS AS THE 8TH WARMEST ON RECORD.

PRECIPITATION TOTAL OF 6.05" DID NOT ATTAIN A TOP 10 RANKING AT
RIC AIRPORT...BUT MANY LOCATIONS IN THE METRO AREA...RECEIVED IN
EXCESS OF 10.00 INCHES FOR THE MONTH.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020744
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
344 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THIS
MORNING...AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A COLD FRNT DROPPING INTO NRN
PORTIONS OF THE FA WITH WINDS BCMG CALM OR NLY NEAR/JUST BEHIND
THE FRNT. THE FRNT BCMS STATIONARY AND LEADS TO SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHRAS/TSTMS THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. FOR TDA...POPS INCREASE THRU
THE DAY TO 50-60% THIS AFTN WITH A MOIST AIRMASS AND PLENTY OF
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING A TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS.
COULD BE SOME STRONG STORMS BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SVR WX
EXPECTED WITH A MSTLY CLOUDY SKY LIMITING INSTABILITY AND TEMPS
BLO NORMAL...HIGHS RANGING THRU THE 80S. MAIN THREAT WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND PSBL MINOR FLOODING...MAINTAINED MENTION
FOR THIS IN THE HWO.

CHANCE OF RAIN INCREASES TO 60-70% TNGT AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FM THE W AND THE MID ATLC SITS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPR-LEVEL JET STREAK. QPF OVER A HALF INCH PSBL
TNGT. LO TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WX CONTINUES INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE SFC
FRNTAL BNDRY REMAINS OVER THE MID ATLC. SHRAS/TSTMS WILL BE AGAIN
LIKELY FRI/FRI NIGHT (60-70% POPS) WITH HI DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
(1000-500 MB RH ~85%) AND STILL SOME UPR-LEVEL FORCING. THE FRNT
STARTS SLIDING S BY LATE FRI NIGHT/SAT WITH LWR POPS SAT THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS BUT STILL A 40-50% CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS OTHER THAN
FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE FA (30%). TOTAL STORM QPF WILL BE ABOUT
1-2" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS DUE TO CONVECTION. DECIDED TO
HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES FOR NOW WITH STILL SOME MODEL
UNCERTAINTY OVER WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR AND
MOST AREAS STAYING BLO FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE. TEMPS BLO NORMAL EACH
DAY...WITH HIGHS AVGG IN THE UPR 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPSTREAM BLOCKING PATTERN RESULTS IN LITTLE MOVEMENT OF OVERALL
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THRU THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A GENERAL BROAD TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG
THE EAST COAST KEEPING CONDITIONS RATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE AND EXTENDED.

WHILE MODELS AGREE ON THE OVERALL PATTERN THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
WITH THE TIMING OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC IS
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. THE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY WITH A TROF LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY. THUS LOOK FOR CHC POPS EACH DAY AS TIMING OF ANY ONE
DISTURBANCE RATHER PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT.
HIGHS SUN IN THE M-U80S...85-90 MON THROUGH WED. LOWS U60S-M70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WK FNTL BNDRY SLOLY SETTLES S ACRS VA/SE MD TDA. AN
AREA OF SHRAS WILL BE CROSSING THE FA THIS MRNG. LO PROB FOR IFR
VSBYS INVOF SBY W/-BEHIND THE WK FNT EARLY THIS MRNG...OTRW MNLY VFR
CONDS. MDLS SHOW A BREAK IN THE SHRAS MIDDAY INTO THIS AFTN. PSBL
ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION BY LT THIS AFTN/EVE. ANOTHER S/W APPROACHES FM
THE W OVRNGT NGT W/ PSBLY ANOTHER RND OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND
IFR/MVFR CONDS. THE FNTL BNDRY RMNS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHRAS/TSTMS...ESP FRI/FRI NGT.
MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF PCPN.

&&

.MARINE...
UNSETTLED WX CONDS XPCD OVR THE WTRS INTO AT LEAST SUN.
WK FNTL BNDRY TO SETTLE S OVR THE VA/MD WTRS TDA...THEN RMN NRLY
STATIONARY INTO SAT (NR HAMPTON RDS). SW WNDS 10 KT OR LESS S OF THE
BNDRY...VRB-NNE WNDS 10 KT OR LESS ALG-N OF THE BNDRY. WAVES IN THE
BAY AVG 1-2 FT AND SEAS ON THE COASTAL WATERS AVG 2-4 FT INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH SUB-SCA CONDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
STALLED FRONT WILL ALSO RESULT IN SEVERAL EPISODES OF SHRAS/TSTMS
INTO SUN. GUSTY WNDS/HEAVY RA PSBL IN ANY STMS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE 2015 CLIMATE:

AT NORFOLK:
*AVG TEMPERATURE OF 78.7 F RANKS AS THE 7TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
*TOTAL PRECIPITATION OF 8.34" RANKS AS 5TH WETTEST ON RECORD.

AT RICHMOND:
*AVG TEMPERATURE OF 77.92 F RANKS AS THE 8TH WARMEST ON RECORD.

PRECIPITATION TOTAL OF 6.05" DID NOT ATTAIN A TOP 10 RANKING AT
RIC AIRPORT...BUT MANY LOCATIONS IN THE METRO AREA...RECEIVED IN
EXCESS OF 10.00 INCHES FOR THE MONTH.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020744
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
344 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THIS
MORNING...AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A COLD FRNT DROPPING INTO NRN
PORTIONS OF THE FA WITH WINDS BCMG CALM OR NLY NEAR/JUST BEHIND
THE FRNT. THE FRNT BCMS STATIONARY AND LEADS TO SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHRAS/TSTMS THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. FOR TDA...POPS INCREASE THRU
THE DAY TO 50-60% THIS AFTN WITH A MOIST AIRMASS AND PLENTY OF
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING A TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS.
COULD BE SOME STRONG STORMS BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SVR WX
EXPECTED WITH A MSTLY CLOUDY SKY LIMITING INSTABILITY AND TEMPS
BLO NORMAL...HIGHS RANGING THRU THE 80S. MAIN THREAT WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND PSBL MINOR FLOODING...MAINTAINED MENTION
FOR THIS IN THE HWO.

CHANCE OF RAIN INCREASES TO 60-70% TNGT AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FM THE W AND THE MID ATLC SITS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPR-LEVEL JET STREAK. QPF OVER A HALF INCH PSBL
TNGT. LO TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WX CONTINUES INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE SFC
FRNTAL BNDRY REMAINS OVER THE MID ATLC. SHRAS/TSTMS WILL BE AGAIN
LIKELY FRI/FRI NIGHT (60-70% POPS) WITH HI DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
(1000-500 MB RH ~85%) AND STILL SOME UPR-LEVEL FORCING. THE FRNT
STARTS SLIDING S BY LATE FRI NIGHT/SAT WITH LWR POPS SAT THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS BUT STILL A 40-50% CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS OTHER THAN
FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE FA (30%). TOTAL STORM QPF WILL BE ABOUT
1-2" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS DUE TO CONVECTION. DECIDED TO
HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES FOR NOW WITH STILL SOME MODEL
UNCERTAINTY OVER WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR AND
MOST AREAS STAYING BLO FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE. TEMPS BLO NORMAL EACH
DAY...WITH HIGHS AVGG IN THE UPR 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPSTREAM BLOCKING PATTERN RESULTS IN LITTLE MOVEMENT OF OVERALL
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THRU THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A GENERAL BROAD TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG
THE EAST COAST KEEPING CONDITIONS RATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE AND EXTENDED.

WHILE MODELS AGREE ON THE OVERALL PATTERN THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
WITH THE TIMING OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC IS
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. THE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY WITH A TROF LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY. THUS LOOK FOR CHC POPS EACH DAY AS TIMING OF ANY ONE
DISTURBANCE RATHER PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT.
HIGHS SUN IN THE M-U80S...85-90 MON THROUGH WED. LOWS U60S-M70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WK FNTL BNDRY SLOLY SETTLES S ACRS VA/SE MD TDA. AN
AREA OF SHRAS WILL BE CROSSING THE FA THIS MRNG. LO PROB FOR IFR
VSBYS INVOF SBY W/-BEHIND THE WK FNT EARLY THIS MRNG...OTRW MNLY VFR
CONDS. MDLS SHOW A BREAK IN THE SHRAS MIDDAY INTO THIS AFTN. PSBL
ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION BY LT THIS AFTN/EVE. ANOTHER S/W APPROACHES FM
THE W OVRNGT NGT W/ PSBLY ANOTHER RND OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND
IFR/MVFR CONDS. THE FNTL BNDRY RMNS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHRAS/TSTMS...ESP FRI/FRI NGT.
MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF PCPN.

&&

.MARINE...
UNSETTLED WX CONDS XPCD OVR THE WTRS INTO AT LEAST SUN.
WK FNTL BNDRY TO SETTLE S OVR THE VA/MD WTRS TDA...THEN RMN NRLY
STATIONARY INTO SAT (NR HAMPTON RDS). SW WNDS 10 KT OR LESS S OF THE
BNDRY...VRB-NNE WNDS 10 KT OR LESS ALG-N OF THE BNDRY. WAVES IN THE
BAY AVG 1-2 FT AND SEAS ON THE COASTAL WATERS AVG 2-4 FT INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH SUB-SCA CONDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
STALLED FRONT WILL ALSO RESULT IN SEVERAL EPISODES OF SHRAS/TSTMS
INTO SUN. GUSTY WNDS/HEAVY RA PSBL IN ANY STMS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE 2015 CLIMATE:

AT NORFOLK:
*AVG TEMPERATURE OF 78.7 F RANKS AS THE 7TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
*TOTAL PRECIPITATION OF 8.34" RANKS AS 5TH WETTEST ON RECORD.

AT RICHMOND:
*AVG TEMPERATURE OF 77.92 F RANKS AS THE 8TH WARMEST ON RECORD.

PRECIPITATION TOTAL OF 6.05" DID NOT ATTAIN A TOP 10 RANKING AT
RIC AIRPORT...BUT MANY LOCATIONS IN THE METRO AREA...RECEIVED IN
EXCESS OF 10.00 INCHES FOR THE MONTH.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB
CLIMATE...



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020730
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
330 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN STABILITY AND DRY WEATHER
FOR MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH TODAY...ALTHOUGH AS CROSSING
SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD SOME MID AND UPR CLOUDINESS OVER THE
AREA. THAT DISTURBANCE MAY ALSO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS OVER AREAS
SOUTH OF I 70 DUE TO PRESENCE OF THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED OVER CENTRAL WV EARLY THIS
MORNING.

FILTERED INSOLATION AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION ON LIGHT NORTH WIND
SHOULD LIMIT TEMPS TO A FEW DEGREES UNDER THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN ADVANCING ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE ON FRIDAY...WITH GFS AND SREFS AGAIN
PROGGING MORE EXTENSIVE PRECIP PROBABILITIES ALTHOUGH NAM AGAIN
PROJECTS LIKELY NUMBERS OVER THE WV RIDGES.

ANY PRECIP WOULD DIMINISH WITH SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE
SUPPORTING DISTURBANCE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND POPS HAVE BEEN THUS
CONSTRUCTED. LOW...DIURNALLY SUPPORTED POPS ARE APPROPRIATE FOR
SATURDAY WITH YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE GFS/NAM PROGGED ACROSS THE
AREA WHILE ALL BUT SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES SHOULD BE DRY ON SUNDAY
WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

TEMPERATURES UNDER THIS PATTERN ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST UNDER
THE SEASONAL AVERAGES...ALTHOUGH FURTHER RECOVERY IS POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY SHOULD HEIGHTS RISE AS PROJECTED. EITHER WAY...FEW CHANGES
WERE NEEDED FOR SHORT TERM TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE BROAD SCALE FEATURES OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SEEMINGLY-PERMANENT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER NEAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR ONE MORE
DAY AND ALLOW FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE
THE REGION SHOULD BE DRY. THE PROGGED COLD FRONT THAT PREVIOUSLY
HAD WIDELY VARYING PROJECTED TIMES FOR PASSAGE NOW HAS SOME
AGREEMENT FROM DETERMINISTIC AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE MODELS OF A
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY PASSAGE. HAVE CHANGED THE FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. WITH THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND HAVE ALSO BUMPED
UP HIGH TEMPERATURES THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR THE BL TO DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT AND
WITH FEW CLOUDS...THINK THAT RESTRICTIONS IN FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE LIKELY. ONLY QUESTION WILL BE HOW LOW VSBYS AND CIGS WILL
GO...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. FOR NOW...OPTED TO STAY
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BRINGING A RETURN TO VFR AFTER
SUNRISE. WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG/STRATUS RESTRICTIONS FRIDAY
MORNING...AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COULD
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/33




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020621
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
221 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL THEN STALL OVER THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND
CAROLINAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES CLOSER INTO THE REGION FM THE N
OVRNGT...SOME INCREASE IN LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL OCCUR. LATE THIS
EVENG...RDR INDICATED SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVNG EWRD INTO SE MD
JUST N OF DORCHESTER COUNTY. WHILE...OTHER SCTD SHOWERS AND MAYBE
AN ISLTD TSTM WERE MOVNG EWRD THRU SW VA AND N CNTRL NC. SO...HAVE
A 30% POP OVR NRN PORTIONS OF THE LWR MD ERN SHR THRU MIDNGT...AND
A SLGT CHC (20%) POP OVR THE REMAINDER OF NRN AND WRN SECTIONS.
OTHERWISE...BECMG PARTLY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY OVRNGT WITH LO TEMPS IN
THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE REGION THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DEVELOP A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER ERN NC AS ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER UPPER WAVE LOCATES OVER THE MID MS
VALLEY. 20-40% POPS THURSDAY MORNING INCREASE TO 40-60% POPS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TO ~60-70% OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. PWATS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 2+ INCHES THURSDAY
NIGHT IN DEEP LAYER SW FLOW. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE IN CONCERT WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING ALONG THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT ISSUING ANY FLASH
FLOOD ADVISORIES AT THIS POINT...BUT THIS PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY DUE TO VERY MOIST ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. IF
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP VERIFIES BY LATER THU...LATER SHIFTS MAY
NEED TO CONSIDER A WATCH FOR CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT THU
THROUGH FRI AS THE BOUNDARY AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE REMAIN OVER
THE REGION.  ANOTHER ROUND OF LIKELY POPS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY. 72 HR RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH SAT AFTN AVERAGE
BETWEEN 1 TO 2"...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

FORECAST HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AREA GENERALLY ON THE LOW-SIDE
OF GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE ANY
PERIODS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGHS THURSDAY RANGE FROM AROUND 80 F NW...TO
THE UPPER 80S SE...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER
70S NW...TO THE MID 80S FAR SE. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S.

PATTERN A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN SAT AS THE FRONT PROGGED TO SAG A
BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND WEAKEN...BUT POPS STILL LOOK WELL ABOVE THE
TYPICAL CLIMO OF ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED LATE AFTN/EVENING
STORMS. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN 30-50% POPS ON SAT...WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPSTREAM BLOCKING PATTERN RESULTS IN LITTLE MOVEMENT OF OVERALL
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THRU THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A GENERAL BROAD TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG
THE EAST COAST KEEPING CONDITIONS RATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE AND EXTENDED.

WHILE MODELS AGREE ON THE OVERALL PATTERN THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
WITH THE TIMING OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC IS
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. THE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY WITH A TROF LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY. THUS LOOK FOR CHC POPS EACH DAY AS TIMING OF ANY ONE
DISTURBANCE RATHER PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT.
HIGHS SUN IN THE M-U80S...85-90 MON THROUGH WED. LOWS U60S-M70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WK FNTL BNDRY SLOLY SETTLES S ACRS VA/SE MD TDA. AN
AREA OF SHRAS WILL BE CROSSING THE FA THIS MRNG. LO PROB FOR IFR
VSBYS INVOF SBY W/-BEHIND THE WK FNT EARLY THIS MRNG...OTRW MNLY VFR
CONDS. MDLS SHOW A BREAK IN THE SHRAS MIDDAY INTO THIS AFTN. PSBL
ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION BY LT THIS AFTN/EVE. ANOTHER S/W APPROACHES FM
THE W OVRNGT NGT W/ PSBLY ANOTHER RND OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND
IFR/MVFR CONDS. THE FNTL BNDRY RMNS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHRAS/TSTMS...ESP FRI/FRI NGT.
MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF PCPN.

&&

.MARINE...
UNSETTLED WX CONDS XPCD OVR THE WTRS INTO AT LEAST SUN.
WK FNTL BNDRY TO SETTLE S OVR THE VA/MD WTRS TDA...THEN RMN NRLY
STATIONARY INTO SAT (NR HAMPTON RDS). SW WNDS 10 KT OR LESS S OF THE
BNDRY...VRB-NNE WNDS 10 KT OR LESS ALG-N OF THE BNDRY. WAVES IN THE
BAY AVG 1-2 FT AND SEAS ON THE COASTAL WATERS AVG 2-4 FT INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH SUB-SCA CONDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
STALLED FRONT WILL ALSO RESULT IN SEVERAL EPISODES OF SHRAS/TSTMS
INTO SUN. GUSTY WNDS/HEAVY RA PSBL IN ANY STMS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE 2015 CLIMATE:

AT NORFOLK:
*AVG TEMPERATURE OF 78.7 F RANKS AS THE 7TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
*TOTAL PRECIPITATION OF 8.34" RANKS AS 5TH WETTEST ON RECORD.

AT RICHMOND:
*AVG TEMPERATURE OF 77.92 F RANKS AS THE 8TH WARMEST ON RECORD.

PRECIPITATION TOTAL OF 6.05" DID NOT ATTAIN A TOP 10 RANKING AT
RIC AIRPORT...BUT MANY LOCATIONS IN THE METRO AREA...RECEIVED IN
EXCESS OF 10.00 INCHES FOR THE MONTH.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB
CLIMATE...AKQ



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020621
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
221 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL THEN STALL OVER THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND
CAROLINAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES CLOSER INTO THE REGION FM THE N
OVRNGT...SOME INCREASE IN LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL OCCUR. LATE THIS
EVENG...RDR INDICATED SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVNG EWRD INTO SE MD
JUST N OF DORCHESTER COUNTY. WHILE...OTHER SCTD SHOWERS AND MAYBE
AN ISLTD TSTM WERE MOVNG EWRD THRU SW VA AND N CNTRL NC. SO...HAVE
A 30% POP OVR NRN PORTIONS OF THE LWR MD ERN SHR THRU MIDNGT...AND
A SLGT CHC (20%) POP OVR THE REMAINDER OF NRN AND WRN SECTIONS.
OTHERWISE...BECMG PARTLY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY OVRNGT WITH LO TEMPS IN
THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE REGION THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DEVELOP A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER ERN NC AS ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER UPPER WAVE LOCATES OVER THE MID MS
VALLEY. 20-40% POPS THURSDAY MORNING INCREASE TO 40-60% POPS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TO ~60-70% OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. PWATS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 2+ INCHES THURSDAY
NIGHT IN DEEP LAYER SW FLOW. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE IN CONCERT WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING ALONG THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT ISSUING ANY FLASH
FLOOD ADVISORIES AT THIS POINT...BUT THIS PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY DUE TO VERY MOIST ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. IF
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP VERIFIES BY LATER THU...LATER SHIFTS MAY
NEED TO CONSIDER A WATCH FOR CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT THU
THROUGH FRI AS THE BOUNDARY AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE REMAIN OVER
THE REGION.  ANOTHER ROUND OF LIKELY POPS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY. 72 HR RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH SAT AFTN AVERAGE
BETWEEN 1 TO 2"...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

FORECAST HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AREA GENERALLY ON THE LOW-SIDE
OF GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE ANY
PERIODS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGHS THURSDAY RANGE FROM AROUND 80 F NW...TO
THE UPPER 80S SE...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER
70S NW...TO THE MID 80S FAR SE. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S.

PATTERN A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN SAT AS THE FRONT PROGGED TO SAG A
BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND WEAKEN...BUT POPS STILL LOOK WELL ABOVE THE
TYPICAL CLIMO OF ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED LATE AFTN/EVENING
STORMS. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN 30-50% POPS ON SAT...WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPSTREAM BLOCKING PATTERN RESULTS IN LITTLE MOVEMENT OF OVERALL
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THRU THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A GENERAL BROAD TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG
THE EAST COAST KEEPING CONDITIONS RATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE AND EXTENDED.

WHILE MODELS AGREE ON THE OVERALL PATTERN THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
WITH THE TIMING OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC IS
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. THE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY WITH A TROF LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY. THUS LOOK FOR CHC POPS EACH DAY AS TIMING OF ANY ONE
DISTURBANCE RATHER PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT.
HIGHS SUN IN THE M-U80S...85-90 MON THROUGH WED. LOWS U60S-M70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WK FNTL BNDRY SLOLY SETTLES S ACRS VA/SE MD TDA. AN
AREA OF SHRAS WILL BE CROSSING THE FA THIS MRNG. LO PROB FOR IFR
VSBYS INVOF SBY W/-BEHIND THE WK FNT EARLY THIS MRNG...OTRW MNLY VFR
CONDS. MDLS SHOW A BREAK IN THE SHRAS MIDDAY INTO THIS AFTN. PSBL
ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION BY LT THIS AFTN/EVE. ANOTHER S/W APPROACHES FM
THE W OVRNGT NGT W/ PSBLY ANOTHER RND OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND
IFR/MVFR CONDS. THE FNTL BNDRY RMNS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHRAS/TSTMS...ESP FRI/FRI NGT.
MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF PCPN.

&&

.MARINE...
UNSETTLED WX CONDS XPCD OVR THE WTRS INTO AT LEAST SUN.
WK FNTL BNDRY TO SETTLE S OVR THE VA/MD WTRS TDA...THEN RMN NRLY
STATIONARY INTO SAT (NR HAMPTON RDS). SW WNDS 10 KT OR LESS S OF THE
BNDRY...VRB-NNE WNDS 10 KT OR LESS ALG-N OF THE BNDRY. WAVES IN THE
BAY AVG 1-2 FT AND SEAS ON THE COASTAL WATERS AVG 2-4 FT INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH SUB-SCA CONDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
STALLED FRONT WILL ALSO RESULT IN SEVERAL EPISODES OF SHRAS/TSTMS
INTO SUN. GUSTY WNDS/HEAVY RA PSBL IN ANY STMS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE 2015 CLIMATE:

AT NORFOLK:
*AVG TEMPERATURE OF 78.7 F RANKS AS THE 7TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
*TOTAL PRECIPITATION OF 8.34" RANKS AS 5TH WETTEST ON RECORD.

AT RICHMOND:
*AVG TEMPERATURE OF 77.92 F RANKS AS THE 8TH WARMEST ON RECORD.

PRECIPITATION TOTAL OF 6.05" DID NOT ATTAIN A TOP 10 RANKING AT
RIC AIRPORT...BUT MANY LOCATIONS IN THE METRO AREA...RECEIVED IN
EXCESS OF 10.00 INCHES FOR THE MONTH.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB
CLIMATE...AKQ



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020621
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
221 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL THEN STALL OVER THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND
CAROLINAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES CLOSER INTO THE REGION FM THE N
OVRNGT...SOME INCREASE IN LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL OCCUR. LATE THIS
EVENG...RDR INDICATED SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVNG EWRD INTO SE MD
JUST N OF DORCHESTER COUNTY. WHILE...OTHER SCTD SHOWERS AND MAYBE
AN ISLTD TSTM WERE MOVNG EWRD THRU SW VA AND N CNTRL NC. SO...HAVE
A 30% POP OVR NRN PORTIONS OF THE LWR MD ERN SHR THRU MIDNGT...AND
A SLGT CHC (20%) POP OVR THE REMAINDER OF NRN AND WRN SECTIONS.
OTHERWISE...BECMG PARTLY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY OVRNGT WITH LO TEMPS IN
THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE REGION THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DEVELOP A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER ERN NC AS ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER UPPER WAVE LOCATES OVER THE MID MS
VALLEY. 20-40% POPS THURSDAY MORNING INCREASE TO 40-60% POPS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TO ~60-70% OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. PWATS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 2+ INCHES THURSDAY
NIGHT IN DEEP LAYER SW FLOW. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE IN CONCERT WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING ALONG THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT ISSUING ANY FLASH
FLOOD ADVISORIES AT THIS POINT...BUT THIS PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY DUE TO VERY MOIST ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. IF
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP VERIFIES BY LATER THU...LATER SHIFTS MAY
NEED TO CONSIDER A WATCH FOR CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT THU
THROUGH FRI AS THE BOUNDARY AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE REMAIN OVER
THE REGION.  ANOTHER ROUND OF LIKELY POPS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY. 72 HR RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH SAT AFTN AVERAGE
BETWEEN 1 TO 2"...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

FORECAST HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AREA GENERALLY ON THE LOW-SIDE
OF GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE ANY
PERIODS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGHS THURSDAY RANGE FROM AROUND 80 F NW...TO
THE UPPER 80S SE...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER
70S NW...TO THE MID 80S FAR SE. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S.

PATTERN A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN SAT AS THE FRONT PROGGED TO SAG A
BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND WEAKEN...BUT POPS STILL LOOK WELL ABOVE THE
TYPICAL CLIMO OF ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED LATE AFTN/EVENING
STORMS. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN 30-50% POPS ON SAT...WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPSTREAM BLOCKING PATTERN RESULTS IN LITTLE MOVEMENT OF OVERALL
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THRU THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A GENERAL BROAD TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG
THE EAST COAST KEEPING CONDITIONS RATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE AND EXTENDED.

WHILE MODELS AGREE ON THE OVERALL PATTERN THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
WITH THE TIMING OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC IS
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. THE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY WITH A TROF LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY. THUS LOOK FOR CHC POPS EACH DAY AS TIMING OF ANY ONE
DISTURBANCE RATHER PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT.
HIGHS SUN IN THE M-U80S...85-90 MON THROUGH WED. LOWS U60S-M70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WK FNTL BNDRY SLOLY SETTLES S ACRS VA/SE MD TDA. AN
AREA OF SHRAS WILL BE CROSSING THE FA THIS MRNG. LO PROB FOR IFR
VSBYS INVOF SBY W/-BEHIND THE WK FNT EARLY THIS MRNG...OTRW MNLY VFR
CONDS. MDLS SHOW A BREAK IN THE SHRAS MIDDAY INTO THIS AFTN. PSBL
ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION BY LT THIS AFTN/EVE. ANOTHER S/W APPROACHES FM
THE W OVRNGT NGT W/ PSBLY ANOTHER RND OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND
IFR/MVFR CONDS. THE FNTL BNDRY RMNS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHRAS/TSTMS...ESP FRI/FRI NGT.
MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF PCPN.

&&

.MARINE...
UNSETTLED WX CONDS XPCD OVR THE WTRS INTO AT LEAST SUN.
WK FNTL BNDRY TO SETTLE S OVR THE VA/MD WTRS TDA...THEN RMN NRLY
STATIONARY INTO SAT (NR HAMPTON RDS). SW WNDS 10 KT OR LESS S OF THE
BNDRY...VRB-NNE WNDS 10 KT OR LESS ALG-N OF THE BNDRY. WAVES IN THE
BAY AVG 1-2 FT AND SEAS ON THE COASTAL WATERS AVG 2-4 FT INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH SUB-SCA CONDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
STALLED FRONT WILL ALSO RESULT IN SEVERAL EPISODES OF SHRAS/TSTMS
INTO SUN. GUSTY WNDS/HEAVY RA PSBL IN ANY STMS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE 2015 CLIMATE:

AT NORFOLK:
*AVG TEMPERATURE OF 78.7 F RANKS AS THE 7TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
*TOTAL PRECIPITATION OF 8.34" RANKS AS 5TH WETTEST ON RECORD.

AT RICHMOND:
*AVG TEMPERATURE OF 77.92 F RANKS AS THE 8TH WARMEST ON RECORD.

PRECIPITATION TOTAL OF 6.05" DID NOT ATTAIN A TOP 10 RANKING AT
RIC AIRPORT...BUT MANY LOCATIONS IN THE METRO AREA...RECEIVED IN
EXCESS OF 10.00 INCHES FOR THE MONTH.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB
CLIMATE...AKQ



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020621
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
221 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL THEN STALL OVER THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND
CAROLINAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES CLOSER INTO THE REGION FM THE N
OVRNGT...SOME INCREASE IN LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL OCCUR. LATE THIS
EVENG...RDR INDICATED SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVNG EWRD INTO SE MD
JUST N OF DORCHESTER COUNTY. WHILE...OTHER SCTD SHOWERS AND MAYBE
AN ISLTD TSTM WERE MOVNG EWRD THRU SW VA AND N CNTRL NC. SO...HAVE
A 30% POP OVR NRN PORTIONS OF THE LWR MD ERN SHR THRU MIDNGT...AND
A SLGT CHC (20%) POP OVR THE REMAINDER OF NRN AND WRN SECTIONS.
OTHERWISE...BECMG PARTLY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY OVRNGT WITH LO TEMPS IN
THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE REGION THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DEVELOP A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER ERN NC AS ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER UPPER WAVE LOCATES OVER THE MID MS
VALLEY. 20-40% POPS THURSDAY MORNING INCREASE TO 40-60% POPS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TO ~60-70% OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. PWATS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 2+ INCHES THURSDAY
NIGHT IN DEEP LAYER SW FLOW. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE IN CONCERT WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING ALONG THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT ISSUING ANY FLASH
FLOOD ADVISORIES AT THIS POINT...BUT THIS PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY DUE TO VERY MOIST ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. IF
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP VERIFIES BY LATER THU...LATER SHIFTS MAY
NEED TO CONSIDER A WATCH FOR CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT THU
THROUGH FRI AS THE BOUNDARY AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE REMAIN OVER
THE REGION.  ANOTHER ROUND OF LIKELY POPS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY. 72 HR RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH SAT AFTN AVERAGE
BETWEEN 1 TO 2"...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

FORECAST HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AREA GENERALLY ON THE LOW-SIDE
OF GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE ANY
PERIODS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGHS THURSDAY RANGE FROM AROUND 80 F NW...TO
THE UPPER 80S SE...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER
70S NW...TO THE MID 80S FAR SE. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S.

PATTERN A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN SAT AS THE FRONT PROGGED TO SAG A
BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND WEAKEN...BUT POPS STILL LOOK WELL ABOVE THE
TYPICAL CLIMO OF ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED LATE AFTN/EVENING
STORMS. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN 30-50% POPS ON SAT...WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPSTREAM BLOCKING PATTERN RESULTS IN LITTLE MOVEMENT OF OVERALL
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THRU THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A GENERAL BROAD TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG
THE EAST COAST KEEPING CONDITIONS RATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE AND EXTENDED.

WHILE MODELS AGREE ON THE OVERALL PATTERN THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
WITH THE TIMING OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC IS
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. THE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY WITH A TROF LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY. THUS LOOK FOR CHC POPS EACH DAY AS TIMING OF ANY ONE
DISTURBANCE RATHER PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT.
HIGHS SUN IN THE M-U80S...85-90 MON THROUGH WED. LOWS U60S-M70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WK FNTL BNDRY SLOLY SETTLES S ACRS VA/SE MD TDA. AN
AREA OF SHRAS WILL BE CROSSING THE FA THIS MRNG. LO PROB FOR IFR
VSBYS INVOF SBY W/-BEHIND THE WK FNT EARLY THIS MRNG...OTRW MNLY VFR
CONDS. MDLS SHOW A BREAK IN THE SHRAS MIDDAY INTO THIS AFTN. PSBL
ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION BY LT THIS AFTN/EVE. ANOTHER S/W APPROACHES FM
THE W OVRNGT NGT W/ PSBLY ANOTHER RND OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND
IFR/MVFR CONDS. THE FNTL BNDRY RMNS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHRAS/TSTMS...ESP FRI/FRI NGT.
MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF PCPN.

&&

.MARINE...
UNSETTLED WX CONDS XPCD OVR THE WTRS INTO AT LEAST SUN.
WK FNTL BNDRY TO SETTLE S OVR THE VA/MD WTRS TDA...THEN RMN NRLY
STATIONARY INTO SAT (NR HAMPTON RDS). SW WNDS 10 KT OR LESS S OF THE
BNDRY...VRB-NNE WNDS 10 KT OR LESS ALG-N OF THE BNDRY. WAVES IN THE
BAY AVG 1-2 FT AND SEAS ON THE COASTAL WATERS AVG 2-4 FT INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH SUB-SCA CONDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
STALLED FRONT WILL ALSO RESULT IN SEVERAL EPISODES OF SHRAS/TSTMS
INTO SUN. GUSTY WNDS/HEAVY RA PSBL IN ANY STMS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE 2015 CLIMATE:

AT NORFOLK:
*AVG TEMPERATURE OF 78.7 F RANKS AS THE 7TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
*TOTAL PRECIPITATION OF 8.34" RANKS AS 5TH WETTEST ON RECORD.

AT RICHMOND:
*AVG TEMPERATURE OF 77.92 F RANKS AS THE 8TH WARMEST ON RECORD.

PRECIPITATION TOTAL OF 6.05" DID NOT ATTAIN A TOP 10 RANKING AT
RIC AIRPORT...BUT MANY LOCATIONS IN THE METRO AREA...RECEIVED IN
EXCESS OF 10.00 INCHES FOR THE MONTH.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB
CLIMATE...AKQ



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020429
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1229 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN STABILITY AND DRY WEATHER
FOR MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH TODAY...ALTHOUGH AS CROSSING
SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD SOME MID AND UPR CLOUDINESS OVER THE
AREA. THAT DISTURBANCE MAY ALSO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS OVER AREAS
SOUTH OF I 70 DUE TO PRESENCE OF THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED OVER CENTRAL WV EARLY THIS
MORNING.

FILTERED INSOLATION AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION ON LIGHT NORTH WIND
SHOULD LIMIT TEMPS TO A FEW DEGREES UNDER THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN ADVANCING ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE ON FRIDAY...WITH GFS AND SREFS AGAIN
PROGGING MORE EXTENSIVE PRECIP PROBABILITIES ALTHOUGH NAM AGAIN
PROJECTS LIKELY NUMBERS OVER THE WV RIDGES.

ANY PRECIP WOULD DIMINISH WITH SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE
SUPPORTING DISTURBANCE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND POPS HAVE BEEN THUS
CONSTRUCTED. LOW...DIURNALLY SUPPORTED POPS ARE APPROPRIATE FOR
SATURDAY WITH YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE GFS/NAM PROGGED ACROSS THE
AREA WHILE ALL BUT SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES SHOULD BE DRY ON SUNDAY
WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

TEMPERATURES UNDER THIS PATTERN ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST UNDER
THE SEASONAL AVERAGES...ALTHOUGH FURTHER RECOVERY IS POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY SHOULD HEIGHTS RISE AS PROJECTED. EITHER WAY...FEW CHANGES
WERE NEEDED FOR SHORT TERM TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA WILL LINGER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. BY SUNDAY NIGHT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT
MAY FINALLY SHIFT OUT OF THE REGION...BRINGING A BRIEF DRY SPELL
TO ALL LOCATIONS. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
GFS/ECMWF HAVE VASTLY DIFFERENT TIMING FOR WHEN THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WOULD CROSS THE REGION...WITH THE ECMWF MUCH FASTER
WITH THE FRONT. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH TIMING SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF...PRIMARILY BECAUSE MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE IN
BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CREEP
UP A FEW DEGREES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR THE BL TO DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT AND WITH
FEW CLOUDS...THINK THAT RESTRICTIONS IN FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
LIKELY. ONLY QUESTION WILL BE HOW LOW VSBYS AND CIGS WILL GO...WITH
SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. FOR NOW...OPTED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...BRINGING A RETURN TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE.

WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COULD PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020429
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1229 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN STABILITY AND DRY WEATHER
FOR MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH TODAY...ALTHOUGH AS CROSSING
SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD SOME MID AND UPR CLOUDINESS OVER THE
AREA. THAT DISTURBANCE MAY ALSO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS OVER AREAS
SOUTH OF I 70 DUE TO PRESENCE OF THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED OVER CENTRAL WV EARLY THIS
MORNING.

FILTERED INSOLATION AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION ON LIGHT NORTH WIND
SHOULD LIMIT TEMPS TO A FEW DEGREES UNDER THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN ADVANCING ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE ON FRIDAY...WITH GFS AND SREFS AGAIN
PROGGING MORE EXTENSIVE PRECIP PROBABILITIES ALTHOUGH NAM AGAIN
PROJECTS LIKELY NUMBERS OVER THE WV RIDGES.

ANY PRECIP WOULD DIMINISH WITH SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE
SUPPORTING DISTURBANCE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND POPS HAVE BEEN THUS
CONSTRUCTED. LOW...DIURNALLY SUPPORTED POPS ARE APPROPRIATE FOR
SATURDAY WITH YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE GFS/NAM PROGGED ACROSS THE
AREA WHILE ALL BUT SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES SHOULD BE DRY ON SUNDAY
WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

TEMPERATURES UNDER THIS PATTERN ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST UNDER
THE SEASONAL AVERAGES...ALTHOUGH FURTHER RECOVERY IS POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY SHOULD HEIGHTS RISE AS PROJECTED. EITHER WAY...FEW CHANGES
WERE NEEDED FOR SHORT TERM TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA WILL LINGER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. BY SUNDAY NIGHT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT
MAY FINALLY SHIFT OUT OF THE REGION...BRINGING A BRIEF DRY SPELL
TO ALL LOCATIONS. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
GFS/ECMWF HAVE VASTLY DIFFERENT TIMING FOR WHEN THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WOULD CROSS THE REGION...WITH THE ECMWF MUCH FASTER
WITH THE FRONT. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH TIMING SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF...PRIMARILY BECAUSE MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE IN
BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CREEP
UP A FEW DEGREES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR THE BL TO DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT AND WITH
FEW CLOUDS...THINK THAT RESTRICTIONS IN FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
LIKELY. ONLY QUESTION WILL BE HOW LOW VSBYS AND CIGS WILL GO...WITH
SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. FOR NOW...OPTED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...BRINGING A RETURN TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE.

WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COULD PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020429
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1229 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN STABILITY AND DRY WEATHER
FOR MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH TODAY...ALTHOUGH AS CROSSING
SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD SOME MID AND UPR CLOUDINESS OVER THE
AREA. THAT DISTURBANCE MAY ALSO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS OVER AREAS
SOUTH OF I 70 DUE TO PRESENCE OF THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED OVER CENTRAL WV EARLY THIS
MORNING.

FILTERED INSOLATION AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION ON LIGHT NORTH WIND
SHOULD LIMIT TEMPS TO A FEW DEGREES UNDER THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN ADVANCING ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE ON FRIDAY...WITH GFS AND SREFS AGAIN
PROGGING MORE EXTENSIVE PRECIP PROBABILITIES ALTHOUGH NAM AGAIN
PROJECTS LIKELY NUMBERS OVER THE WV RIDGES.

ANY PRECIP WOULD DIMINISH WITH SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE
SUPPORTING DISTURBANCE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND POPS HAVE BEEN THUS
CONSTRUCTED. LOW...DIURNALLY SUPPORTED POPS ARE APPROPRIATE FOR
SATURDAY WITH YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE GFS/NAM PROGGED ACROSS THE
AREA WHILE ALL BUT SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES SHOULD BE DRY ON SUNDAY
WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

TEMPERATURES UNDER THIS PATTERN ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST UNDER
THE SEASONAL AVERAGES...ALTHOUGH FURTHER RECOVERY IS POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY SHOULD HEIGHTS RISE AS PROJECTED. EITHER WAY...FEW CHANGES
WERE NEEDED FOR SHORT TERM TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA WILL LINGER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. BY SUNDAY NIGHT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT
MAY FINALLY SHIFT OUT OF THE REGION...BRINGING A BRIEF DRY SPELL
TO ALL LOCATIONS. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
GFS/ECMWF HAVE VASTLY DIFFERENT TIMING FOR WHEN THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WOULD CROSS THE REGION...WITH THE ECMWF MUCH FASTER
WITH THE FRONT. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH TIMING SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF...PRIMARILY BECAUSE MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE IN
BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CREEP
UP A FEW DEGREES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR THE BL TO DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT AND WITH
FEW CLOUDS...THINK THAT RESTRICTIONS IN FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
LIKELY. ONLY QUESTION WILL BE HOW LOW VSBYS AND CIGS WILL GO...WITH
SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. FOR NOW...OPTED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...BRINGING A RETURN TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE.

WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COULD PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020429
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1229 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN STABILITY AND DRY WEATHER
FOR MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH TODAY...ALTHOUGH AS CROSSING
SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD SOME MID AND UPR CLOUDINESS OVER THE
AREA. THAT DISTURBANCE MAY ALSO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS OVER AREAS
SOUTH OF I 70 DUE TO PRESENCE OF THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED OVER CENTRAL WV EARLY THIS
MORNING.

FILTERED INSOLATION AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION ON LIGHT NORTH WIND
SHOULD LIMIT TEMPS TO A FEW DEGREES UNDER THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN ADVANCING ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE ON FRIDAY...WITH GFS AND SREFS AGAIN
PROGGING MORE EXTENSIVE PRECIP PROBABILITIES ALTHOUGH NAM AGAIN
PROJECTS LIKELY NUMBERS OVER THE WV RIDGES.

ANY PRECIP WOULD DIMINISH WITH SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE
SUPPORTING DISTURBANCE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND POPS HAVE BEEN THUS
CONSTRUCTED. LOW...DIURNALLY SUPPORTED POPS ARE APPROPRIATE FOR
SATURDAY WITH YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE GFS/NAM PROGGED ACROSS THE
AREA WHILE ALL BUT SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES SHOULD BE DRY ON SUNDAY
WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

TEMPERATURES UNDER THIS PATTERN ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST UNDER
THE SEASONAL AVERAGES...ALTHOUGH FURTHER RECOVERY IS POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY SHOULD HEIGHTS RISE AS PROJECTED. EITHER WAY...FEW CHANGES
WERE NEEDED FOR SHORT TERM TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA WILL LINGER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. BY SUNDAY NIGHT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT
MAY FINALLY SHIFT OUT OF THE REGION...BRINGING A BRIEF DRY SPELL
TO ALL LOCATIONS. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
GFS/ECMWF HAVE VASTLY DIFFERENT TIMING FOR WHEN THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WOULD CROSS THE REGION...WITH THE ECMWF MUCH FASTER
WITH THE FRONT. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH TIMING SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF...PRIMARILY BECAUSE MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE IN
BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CREEP
UP A FEW DEGREES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR THE BL TO DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT AND WITH
FEW CLOUDS...THINK THAT RESTRICTIONS IN FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
LIKELY. ONLY QUESTION WILL BE HOW LOW VSBYS AND CIGS WILL GO...WITH
SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. FOR NOW...OPTED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...BRINGING A RETURN TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE.

WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COULD PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020120
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
920 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL THEN STALL OVER THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND
CAROLINAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES CLOSER INTO THE REGION FM THE N
OVRNGT...SOME INCREASE IN LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL OCCUR. LATE THIS
EVENG...RDR INDICATED SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVNG EWRD INTO SE MD
JUST N OF DORCHESTER COUNTY. WHILE...OTHER SCTD SHOWERS AND MAYBE
AN ISLTD TSTM WERE MOVNG EWRD THRU SW VA AND N CNTRL NC. SO...HAVE
A 30% POP OVR NRN PORTIONS OF THE LWR MD ERN SHR THRU MIDNGT...AND
A SLGT CHC (20%) POP OVR THE REMAINDER OF NRN AND WRN SECTIONS.
OTHERWISE...BECMG PARTLY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY OVRNGT WITH LO TEMPS IN
THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE REGION THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DEVELOP A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER ERN NC AS ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER UPPER WAVE LOCATES OVER THE MID MS
VALLEY. 20-40% POPS THURSDAY MORNING INCREASE TO 40-60% POPS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TO ~60-70% OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. PWATS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 2+ INCHES THURSDAY
NIGHT IN DEEP LAYER SW FLOW. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE IN CONCERT WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING ALONG THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT ISSUING ANY FLASH
FLOOD ADVISORIES AT THIS POINT...BUT THIS PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY DUE TO VERY MOIST ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. IF
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP VERIFIES BY LATER THU...LATER SHIFTS MAY
NEED TO CONSIDER A WATCH FOR CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT THU
THROUGH FRI AS THE BOUNDARY AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE REMAIN OVER
THE REGION.  ANOTHER ROUND OF LIKELY POPS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY. 72 HR RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH SAT AFTN AVERAGE
BETWEEN 1 TO 2"...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

FORECAST HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AREA GENERALLY ON THE LOW-SIDE
OF GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE ANY
PERIODS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGHS THURSDAY RANGE FROM AROUND 80 F NW...TO
THE UPPER 80S SE...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER
70S NW...TO THE MID 80S FAR SE. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S.

PATTERN A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN SAT AS THE FRONT PROGGED TO SAG A
BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND WEAKEN...BUT POPS STILL LOOK WELL ABOVE THE
TYPICAL CLIMO OF ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED LATE AFTN/EVENING
STORMS. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN 30-50% POPS ON SAT...WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPSTREAM BLOCKING PATTERN RESULTS IN LITTLE MOVEMENT OF OVERALL
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THRU THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A GENERAL BROAD TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG
THE EAST COAST KEEPING CONDITIONS RATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE AND EXTENDED.

WHILE MODELS AGREE ON THE OVERALL PATTERN THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
WITH THE TIMING OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC IS
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. THE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY WITH A TROF LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY. THUS LOOK FOR CHC POPS EACH DAY AS TIMING OF ANY ONE
DISTURBANCE RATHER PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT.
HIGHS SUN IN THE M-U80S...85-90 MON THROUGH WED. LOWS U60S-M70S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL DROP SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE ALLOWED FOR A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT RAIN LATE
THURSDAY MORNING AT RIC AND SBY. MOST OF THE PCPN THURSDAY WILL
ARRIVE IN THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING IN THE FORM OF CONVECTION.

HAVE MAINLY VFR CONDS BUT WITH LOWERING CONDITIONS AT SBY. A FEW
HOURS OF IFR VSBYS ARE INCLUDED NEAR SUNRISE AS FORECAST BY BOTH MOS
FORECASTS. THIS OCCURS NEAR THE TIME OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR LATE DAY AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF PCPN.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY S TO SW AROUND 10 KT OR LESS. WINDS OVER THE MIDDLE BAY
AND COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE BECOME NW TO N BY THURSDAY
MORNING AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND STALLS NEAR HAMPTON ROADS.
WINDS BECOME VARIABLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND REMAIN S TO SW
SOUTH OF THE FRONT OVER THE NC WATERS. WAVES IN THE BAY AVG 1-2 FT
AND SEAS ON THE COASTAL WATERS AVG 2-4 FT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SUB-
SCA CONDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE STALLED FRONT WILL
ALSO RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY LASTING THROUGH
FRIDAY. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINS REDUCING VISIBILITY AND GUSTY WINDS
FROM STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE 2015 CLIMATE:

AT NORFOLK:
*AVG TEMPERATURE OF 78.7 F RANKS AS THE 7TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
*TOTAL PRECIPITATION OF 8.34" RANKS AS 5TH WETTEST ON RECORD.

AT RICHMOND:
*AVG TEMPERATURE OF 77.92 F RANKS AS THE 8TH WARMEST ON RECORD.

PRECIPITATION TOTAL OF 6.05" DID NOT ATTAIN A TOP 10 RANKING AT
RIC AIRPORT...BUT MANY LOCATIONS IN THE METRO AREA...RECEIVED IN
EXCESS OF 10.00 INCHES FOR THE MONTH.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/TMG
SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LSA/JAO
CLIMATE...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020120
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
920 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL THEN STALL OVER THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND
CAROLINAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES CLOSER INTO THE REGION FM THE N
OVRNGT...SOME INCREASE IN LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL OCCUR. LATE THIS
EVENG...RDR INDICATED SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVNG EWRD INTO SE MD
JUST N OF DORCHESTER COUNTY. WHILE...OTHER SCTD SHOWERS AND MAYBE
AN ISLTD TSTM WERE MOVNG EWRD THRU SW VA AND N CNTRL NC. SO...HAVE
A 30% POP OVR NRN PORTIONS OF THE LWR MD ERN SHR THRU MIDNGT...AND
A SLGT CHC (20%) POP OVR THE REMAINDER OF NRN AND WRN SECTIONS.
OTHERWISE...BECMG PARTLY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY OVRNGT WITH LO TEMPS IN
THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE REGION THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DEVELOP A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER ERN NC AS ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER UPPER WAVE LOCATES OVER THE MID MS
VALLEY. 20-40% POPS THURSDAY MORNING INCREASE TO 40-60% POPS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TO ~60-70% OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. PWATS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 2+ INCHES THURSDAY
NIGHT IN DEEP LAYER SW FLOW. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE IN CONCERT WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING ALONG THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT ISSUING ANY FLASH
FLOOD ADVISORIES AT THIS POINT...BUT THIS PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY DUE TO VERY MOIST ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. IF
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP VERIFIES BY LATER THU...LATER SHIFTS MAY
NEED TO CONSIDER A WATCH FOR CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT THU
THROUGH FRI AS THE BOUNDARY AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE REMAIN OVER
THE REGION.  ANOTHER ROUND OF LIKELY POPS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY. 72 HR RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH SAT AFTN AVERAGE
BETWEEN 1 TO 2"...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

FORECAST HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AREA GENERALLY ON THE LOW-SIDE
OF GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE ANY
PERIODS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGHS THURSDAY RANGE FROM AROUND 80 F NW...TO
THE UPPER 80S SE...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER
70S NW...TO THE MID 80S FAR SE. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S.

PATTERN A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN SAT AS THE FRONT PROGGED TO SAG A
BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND WEAKEN...BUT POPS STILL LOOK WELL ABOVE THE
TYPICAL CLIMO OF ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED LATE AFTN/EVENING
STORMS. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN 30-50% POPS ON SAT...WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPSTREAM BLOCKING PATTERN RESULTS IN LITTLE MOVEMENT OF OVERALL
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THRU THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A GENERAL BROAD TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG
THE EAST COAST KEEPING CONDITIONS RATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE AND EXTENDED.

WHILE MODELS AGREE ON THE OVERALL PATTERN THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
WITH THE TIMING OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC IS
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. THE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY WITH A TROF LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY. THUS LOOK FOR CHC POPS EACH DAY AS TIMING OF ANY ONE
DISTURBANCE RATHER PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT.
HIGHS SUN IN THE M-U80S...85-90 MON THROUGH WED. LOWS U60S-M70S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL DROP SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE ALLOWED FOR A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT RAIN LATE
THURSDAY MORNING AT RIC AND SBY. MOST OF THE PCPN THURSDAY WILL
ARRIVE IN THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING IN THE FORM OF CONVECTION.

HAVE MAINLY VFR CONDS BUT WITH LOWERING CONDITIONS AT SBY. A FEW
HOURS OF IFR VSBYS ARE INCLUDED NEAR SUNRISE AS FORECAST BY BOTH MOS
FORECASTS. THIS OCCURS NEAR THE TIME OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR LATE DAY AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF PCPN.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY S TO SW AROUND 10 KT OR LESS. WINDS OVER THE MIDDLE BAY
AND COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE BECOME NW TO N BY THURSDAY
MORNING AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND STALLS NEAR HAMPTON ROADS.
WINDS BECOME VARIABLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND REMAIN S TO SW
SOUTH OF THE FRONT OVER THE NC WATERS. WAVES IN THE BAY AVG 1-2 FT
AND SEAS ON THE COASTAL WATERS AVG 2-4 FT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SUB-
SCA CONDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE STALLED FRONT WILL
ALSO RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY LASTING THROUGH
FRIDAY. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINS REDUCING VISIBILITY AND GUSTY WINDS
FROM STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE 2015 CLIMATE:

AT NORFOLK:
*AVG TEMPERATURE OF 78.7 F RANKS AS THE 7TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
*TOTAL PRECIPITATION OF 8.34" RANKS AS 5TH WETTEST ON RECORD.

AT RICHMOND:
*AVG TEMPERATURE OF 77.92 F RANKS AS THE 8TH WARMEST ON RECORD.

PRECIPITATION TOTAL OF 6.05" DID NOT ATTAIN A TOP 10 RANKING AT
RIC AIRPORT...BUT MANY LOCATIONS IN THE METRO AREA...RECEIVED IN
EXCESS OF 10.00 INCHES FOR THE MONTH.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/TMG
SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LSA/JAO
CLIMATE...AKQ



000
FXUS61 KLWX 020113
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
913 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN
MARYLAND TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ALONG
IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF DC
INTO SOUTHERN MARYLAND AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA THIS EVENING.
CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY HAS TRAINED OVER
THE SAME AREAS...RESULTING IN HEAVY RAIN FOR A SMALL AREA JUST
SOUTH OF THE DISTRICT...INCLUDING ALEXANDRIA AND PORTIONS OF
PRINCE GEORGES AND FAIRFAX COUNTIES. THE BOUNDARY HAS SLOWLY SLID
OFF TO THE SOUTH SO CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE ACROSS
THESE AREAS.

THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT OVER SOUTHERN MARYLAND INTO CENTRAL
VIRGINIA LATE TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ALSO PASS THROUGH
THESE AREAS LATE TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LEFT POPS IN
FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THESE AREAS...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND LIMITED INSTABILITY. ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THURSDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN LOCALES DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER
70S WEST TO LOW- MID 80S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH REGARDS TO WX LATE THU THROUGH SAT
MORNING...AS SUBTLE TO CONSIDERABLE (DEPENDING ON WHICH GUIDANCE YOU
CHOOSE) DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS TO TRACK AND
TIMING OF LP SYSTEMS TRACKING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MADE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST...WITH CHCS FOR OVERNIGHT
SHOWERS LATE THU AND TSTM CHCS FRI AFTN THROUGH THE EVENING.
INSTABILITY/SHEAR PROFILES RATHER ANEMIC...AND H5 WINDS AOB 20
KTS...SUGGEST ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WOULD BE DISORGANIZED. TEMPS
APPEAR TO REMAIN REASONABLE WITH M/U 70S THROUGHOUT MUCH OF CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES CROSSING REGION OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING MONDAY. ON TUESDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WHILE A SHORTWAVE ON THE NORTHERN TRACK
PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION. WEAK TO MODERATE PVA WILL AFFECT THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. SERIES OF WAVES WILL TRACK ALONG QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT LAYING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING.
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FROM BR. ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ON THURSDAY...MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI REMAIN CHCS FOR
SHOWERS AND TSTMS...WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...ATTM IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT SPATIOTEMPORAL
EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY. VFR CONDS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY.

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA INTO THURSDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE MIDDLE PORTION OF
THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS
EVENING. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MAIN MARINE CONCERNS THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI WOULD BE WITH ANY TSTM
ACTIVITY...AS WINDS APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA IN THE
LIGHT (AOB 10 KTS) AND VARIABLE FLOW.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT THE WATERS OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...BJL/KRW
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...BJL/CEM/MSE/KRW
MARINE...BJL/CEM/MSE/KRW



000
FXUS61 KLWX 020113
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
913 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN
MARYLAND TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ALONG
IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF DC
INTO SOUTHERN MARYLAND AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA THIS EVENING.
CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY HAS TRAINED OVER
THE SAME AREAS...RESULTING IN HEAVY RAIN FOR A SMALL AREA JUST
SOUTH OF THE DISTRICT...INCLUDING ALEXANDRIA AND PORTIONS OF
PRINCE GEORGES AND FAIRFAX COUNTIES. THE BOUNDARY HAS SLOWLY SLID
OFF TO THE SOUTH SO CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE ACROSS
THESE AREAS.

THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT OVER SOUTHERN MARYLAND INTO CENTRAL
VIRGINIA LATE TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ALSO PASS THROUGH
THESE AREAS LATE TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LEFT POPS IN
FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THESE AREAS...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND LIMITED INSTABILITY. ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THURSDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN LOCALES DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER
70S WEST TO LOW- MID 80S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH REGARDS TO WX LATE THU THROUGH SAT
MORNING...AS SUBTLE TO CONSIDERABLE (DEPENDING ON WHICH GUIDANCE YOU
CHOOSE) DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS TO TRACK AND
TIMING OF LP SYSTEMS TRACKING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MADE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST...WITH CHCS FOR OVERNIGHT
SHOWERS LATE THU AND TSTM CHCS FRI AFTN THROUGH THE EVENING.
INSTABILITY/SHEAR PROFILES RATHER ANEMIC...AND H5 WINDS AOB 20
KTS...SUGGEST ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WOULD BE DISORGANIZED. TEMPS
APPEAR TO REMAIN REASONABLE WITH M/U 70S THROUGHOUT MUCH OF CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES CROSSING REGION OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING MONDAY. ON TUESDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WHILE A SHORTWAVE ON THE NORTHERN TRACK
PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION. WEAK TO MODERATE PVA WILL AFFECT THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. SERIES OF WAVES WILL TRACK ALONG QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT LAYING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING.
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FROM BR. ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ON THURSDAY...MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI REMAIN CHCS FOR
SHOWERS AND TSTMS...WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...ATTM IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT SPATIOTEMPORAL
EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY. VFR CONDS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY.

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA INTO THURSDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE MIDDLE PORTION OF
THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS
EVENING. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MAIN MARINE CONCERNS THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI WOULD BE WITH ANY TSTM
ACTIVITY...AS WINDS APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA IN THE
LIGHT (AOB 10 KTS) AND VARIABLE FLOW.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT THE WATERS OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...BJL/KRW
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...BJL/CEM/MSE/KRW
MARINE...BJL/CEM/MSE/KRW




000
FXUS61 KLWX 020113
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
913 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN
MARYLAND TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ALONG
IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF DC
INTO SOUTHERN MARYLAND AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA THIS EVENING.
CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY HAS TRAINED OVER
THE SAME AREAS...RESULTING IN HEAVY RAIN FOR A SMALL AREA JUST
SOUTH OF THE DISTRICT...INCLUDING ALEXANDRIA AND PORTIONS OF
PRINCE GEORGES AND FAIRFAX COUNTIES. THE BOUNDARY HAS SLOWLY SLID
OFF TO THE SOUTH SO CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE ACROSS
THESE AREAS.

THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT OVER SOUTHERN MARYLAND INTO CENTRAL
VIRGINIA LATE TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ALSO PASS THROUGH
THESE AREAS LATE TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LEFT POPS IN
FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THESE AREAS...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND LIMITED INSTABILITY. ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THURSDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN LOCALES DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER
70S WEST TO LOW- MID 80S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH REGARDS TO WX LATE THU THROUGH SAT
MORNING...AS SUBTLE TO CONSIDERABLE (DEPENDING ON WHICH GUIDANCE YOU
CHOOSE) DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS TO TRACK AND
TIMING OF LP SYSTEMS TRACKING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MADE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST...WITH CHCS FOR OVERNIGHT
SHOWERS LATE THU AND TSTM CHCS FRI AFTN THROUGH THE EVENING.
INSTABILITY/SHEAR PROFILES RATHER ANEMIC...AND H5 WINDS AOB 20
KTS...SUGGEST ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WOULD BE DISORGANIZED. TEMPS
APPEAR TO REMAIN REASONABLE WITH M/U 70S THROUGHOUT MUCH OF CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES CROSSING REGION OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING MONDAY. ON TUESDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WHILE A SHORTWAVE ON THE NORTHERN TRACK
PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION. WEAK TO MODERATE PVA WILL AFFECT THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. SERIES OF WAVES WILL TRACK ALONG QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT LAYING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING.
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FROM BR. ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ON THURSDAY...MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI REMAIN CHCS FOR
SHOWERS AND TSTMS...WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...ATTM IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT SPATIOTEMPORAL
EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY. VFR CONDS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY.

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA INTO THURSDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE MIDDLE PORTION OF
THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS
EVENING. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MAIN MARINE CONCERNS THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI WOULD BE WITH ANY TSTM
ACTIVITY...AS WINDS APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA IN THE
LIGHT (AOB 10 KTS) AND VARIABLE FLOW.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT THE WATERS OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...BJL/KRW
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...BJL/CEM/MSE/KRW
MARINE...BJL/CEM/MSE/KRW



000
FXUS61 KLWX 020113
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
913 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN
MARYLAND TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ALONG
IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF DC
INTO SOUTHERN MARYLAND AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA THIS EVENING.
CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY HAS TRAINED OVER
THE SAME AREAS...RESULTING IN HEAVY RAIN FOR A SMALL AREA JUST
SOUTH OF THE DISTRICT...INCLUDING ALEXANDRIA AND PORTIONS OF
PRINCE GEORGES AND FAIRFAX COUNTIES. THE BOUNDARY HAS SLOWLY SLID
OFF TO THE SOUTH SO CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE ACROSS
THESE AREAS.

THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT OVER SOUTHERN MARYLAND INTO CENTRAL
VIRGINIA LATE TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ALSO PASS THROUGH
THESE AREAS LATE TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LEFT POPS IN
FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THESE AREAS...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND LIMITED INSTABILITY. ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THURSDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN LOCALES DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER
70S WEST TO LOW- MID 80S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH REGARDS TO WX LATE THU THROUGH SAT
MORNING...AS SUBTLE TO CONSIDERABLE (DEPENDING ON WHICH GUIDANCE YOU
CHOOSE) DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS TO TRACK AND
TIMING OF LP SYSTEMS TRACKING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MADE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST...WITH CHCS FOR OVERNIGHT
SHOWERS LATE THU AND TSTM CHCS FRI AFTN THROUGH THE EVENING.
INSTABILITY/SHEAR PROFILES RATHER ANEMIC...AND H5 WINDS AOB 20
KTS...SUGGEST ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WOULD BE DISORGANIZED. TEMPS
APPEAR TO REMAIN REASONABLE WITH M/U 70S THROUGHOUT MUCH OF CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES CROSSING REGION OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING MONDAY. ON TUESDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WHILE A SHORTWAVE ON THE NORTHERN TRACK
PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION. WEAK TO MODERATE PVA WILL AFFECT THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. SERIES OF WAVES WILL TRACK ALONG QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT LAYING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING.
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FROM BR. ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ON THURSDAY...MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI REMAIN CHCS FOR
SHOWERS AND TSTMS...WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...ATTM IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT SPATIOTEMPORAL
EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY. VFR CONDS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY.

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA INTO THURSDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE MIDDLE PORTION OF
THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS
EVENING. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MAIN MARINE CONCERNS THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI WOULD BE WITH ANY TSTM
ACTIVITY...AS WINDS APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA IN THE
LIGHT (AOB 10 KTS) AND VARIABLE FLOW.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT THE WATERS OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...BJL/KRW
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...BJL/CEM/MSE/KRW
MARINE...BJL/CEM/MSE/KRW




000
FXUS61 KPHI 020111
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
911 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA EARLY TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ALONG IT TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND AS OF 01Z IT APPEARS TO
BE NEARING THE COAST WITH LIGHT WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST IN ITS WAKE. SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY COMBINED WITH
SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY IS MAINTAINING SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN A
LITTLE THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
WANE INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THE INSTABILITY LOWERS AND THE FRONTAL
ZONE SETTLES SOUTH AND EAST SOME MORE. OTHERWISE, ADJUSTED THE
HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS THEN BLENDED IN THE
LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD TEND TO STALL IN THE VICINITY OF DELMARVA
OVERNIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, LOW-LEVEL DRYING WILL LOWER THE
DEW POINTS AT LEAST SOME. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT SOME
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY RIDING THE FRONT TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH
PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. OTHERWISE, SOME HIGHER
CLOUDINESS AROUND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
FRONT REMAINS STALLED TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THIS TIME AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SLOWLY BUILDS EAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
CHANCE OF GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN IN THE VICINITY AND JUST NORTH OF THE
FRONT WITH WEAK ON SHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND LOWER DELMARVA REGION. THE PRECIP FIELDS ON
THE GFS ARE MORE EXTENSIVE THEN THE MOST RECENT EC...BUT WE WILL
KEEP THE CHC POPS FOR THE SRN REGION ATTM. THE SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE
INTO FRI MORNING...WHICH WE WILL KEEP FOR NOW...BUT THE MODELS MAY
BE TRENDING A BIT FASTER WITH THE WAVE...SO IT`S POSSIBLE THAT THE
FRI MORNING SHOWERS MAY BE REMOVED IN UPCOMING FCSTS.

OVERALL...THE UPCOMING WEEKEND DOES NOT LOOK TOO BAD. THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS SAT AS AN
UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA. POPS WOULD ONLY BE IN THE CHC RANGE
AT BEST...A FEW MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING SOUTH. A MOSTLY DRY FCST
SUN INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...AT THIS WARMEST PART OF THE
YEAR. MAXS WILL BE MID 80S SOUTH/EAST TO LOW 80S NORTH/WEST.

THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK MAY HAVE A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH
THE FRONT RETURNING AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG IT. THE MODELS WILL PROBABLY CHANGE SEVERAL TIMES WITH THE
DETAILS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO WE WILL JUST USE THE WPC
POPS/TEMPS FOR TODAYS EXTENDED FCST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY
NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES THROUGH THE
AREA. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE NEAR KMIV AND KACY INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FROM NORTHWESTERLY IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, THEN MOST TERMINALS SHOULD HAVE A LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WIND OVERNIGHT BEFORE TURNING LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
TOWARD DAYBREAK. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FOG TO DEVELOP
TOWARD DAYBREAK MAINLY AT KABE, KRDG, KMIV AND KACY.

THURSDAY...VFR OVERALL, HOWEVER SOME SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON COULD GET CLOSE TO KMIV AND KACY. NORTHEAST WINDS 5-10
KNOTS SHOULD BECOME LOCALLY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU MONDAY...OVERALL VFR MUCH OF THE TIME. SCT SHOWERS
AND A FEW TSTMS MAY BRING LOCALLY POORER VSBYS/CIGS. THE MOST
LIKELY TIMES FOR THIS ARE THU NIGHT AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE NOT GONE AS HIGH AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, THUS, HAVE
CANCELLED THE SCA ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS. WINDS MAY GUST NEAR 20 KT
AT TIMES THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY JUST BEHIND A COLD FRONT, THAT
SHOULD ARRIVE LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE WATERS THU NIGHT AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART. A FEW SCA GUSTS
POSSIBLE FRI/FRI NIGHT WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RAINFALL FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE RANKED IN THE TOP 5 OF THE AVAILABLE
RELIABLE HISTORICAL DATABASE.

WILMINGTON #2 12.52. THE WETTEST WAS 13.66 IN 2013 AND THE TOP 4
WETTEST JUNES OCCURRED SINCE 2003. THE PERIOD OF RECORD (POR)
DATES BACK TO 1894.

ALLENTOWN #5 7.59 INCHES. THE WETTEST 10.51 IN 1938. POR TO 1922.
10.51 1938 THREE OF THE WETTEST JUNES OCCURRED SINCE 2003
9.13 2006
8.58 1972
8.30 2003
7.59 2015

ATLANTIC CITY #2 8.36 INCHES. THE WETTEST 8.45 INCHES 1920. POR
1874.

PHILADELPHIA #3 8.88 INCHES. THE WETTEST 10.56 2013, #2 IS 10.06
IN 1938. THREE OF 4 WETTEST JUNES OCCURRED SINCE 2003.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE IN OUR FORECAST AREA GENERALLY
AVERAGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GORSE/O`HARA
MARINE...JOHNSON/O`HARA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 020111
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
911 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA EARLY TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ALONG IT TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND AS OF 01Z IT APPEARS TO
BE NEARING THE COAST WITH LIGHT WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST IN ITS WAKE. SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY COMBINED WITH
SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY IS MAINTAINING SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN A
LITTLE THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
WANE INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THE INSTABILITY LOWERS AND THE FRONTAL
ZONE SETTLES SOUTH AND EAST SOME MORE. OTHERWISE, ADJUSTED THE
HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS THEN BLENDED IN THE
LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD TEND TO STALL IN THE VICINITY OF DELMARVA
OVERNIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, LOW-LEVEL DRYING WILL LOWER THE
DEW POINTS AT LEAST SOME. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT SOME
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY RIDING THE FRONT TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH
PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. OTHERWISE, SOME HIGHER
CLOUDINESS AROUND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
FRONT REMAINS STALLED TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THIS TIME AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SLOWLY BUILDS EAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
CHANCE OF GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN IN THE VICINITY AND JUST NORTH OF THE
FRONT WITH WEAK ON SHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND LOWER DELMARVA REGION. THE PRECIP FIELDS ON
THE GFS ARE MORE EXTENSIVE THEN THE MOST RECENT EC...BUT WE WILL
KEEP THE CHC POPS FOR THE SRN REGION ATTM. THE SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE
INTO FRI MORNING...WHICH WE WILL KEEP FOR NOW...BUT THE MODELS MAY
BE TRENDING A BIT FASTER WITH THE WAVE...SO IT`S POSSIBLE THAT THE
FRI MORNING SHOWERS MAY BE REMOVED IN UPCOMING FCSTS.

OVERALL...THE UPCOMING WEEKEND DOES NOT LOOK TOO BAD. THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS SAT AS AN
UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA. POPS WOULD ONLY BE IN THE CHC RANGE
AT BEST...A FEW MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING SOUTH. A MOSTLY DRY FCST
SUN INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...AT THIS WARMEST PART OF THE
YEAR. MAXS WILL BE MID 80S SOUTH/EAST TO LOW 80S NORTH/WEST.

THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK MAY HAVE A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH
THE FRONT RETURNING AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG IT. THE MODELS WILL PROBABLY CHANGE SEVERAL TIMES WITH THE
DETAILS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO WE WILL JUST USE THE WPC
POPS/TEMPS FOR TODAYS EXTENDED FCST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY
NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES THROUGH THE
AREA. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE NEAR KMIV AND KACY INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FROM NORTHWESTERLY IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, THEN MOST TERMINALS SHOULD HAVE A LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WIND OVERNIGHT BEFORE TURNING LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
TOWARD DAYBREAK. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FOG TO DEVELOP
TOWARD DAYBREAK MAINLY AT KABE, KRDG, KMIV AND KACY.

THURSDAY...VFR OVERALL, HOWEVER SOME SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON COULD GET CLOSE TO KMIV AND KACY. NORTHEAST WINDS 5-10
KNOTS SHOULD BECOME LOCALLY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU MONDAY...OVERALL VFR MUCH OF THE TIME. SCT SHOWERS
AND A FEW TSTMS MAY BRING LOCALLY POORER VSBYS/CIGS. THE MOST
LIKELY TIMES FOR THIS ARE THU NIGHT AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE NOT GONE AS HIGH AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, THUS, HAVE
CANCELLED THE SCA ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS. WINDS MAY GUST NEAR 20 KT
AT TIMES THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY JUST BEHIND A COLD FRONT, THAT
SHOULD ARRIVE LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE WATERS THU NIGHT AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART. A FEW SCA GUSTS
POSSIBLE FRI/FRI NIGHT WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RAINFALL FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE RANKED IN THE TOP 5 OF THE AVAILABLE
RELIABLE HISTORICAL DATABASE.

WILMINGTON #2 12.52. THE WETTEST WAS 13.66 IN 2013 AND THE TOP 4
WETTEST JUNES OCCURRED SINCE 2003. THE PERIOD OF RECORD (POR)
DATES BACK TO 1894.

ALLENTOWN #5 7.59 INCHES. THE WETTEST 10.51 IN 1938. POR TO 1922.
10.51 1938 THREE OF THE WETTEST JUNES OCCURRED SINCE 2003
9.13 2006
8.58 1972
8.30 2003
7.59 2015

ATLANTIC CITY #2 8.36 INCHES. THE WETTEST 8.45 INCHES 1920. POR
1874.

PHILADELPHIA #3 8.88 INCHES. THE WETTEST 10.56 2013, #2 IS 10.06
IN 1938. THREE OF 4 WETTEST JUNES OCCURRED SINCE 2003.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE IN OUR FORECAST AREA GENERALLY
AVERAGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GORSE/O`HARA
MARINE...JOHNSON/O`HARA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 020111
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
911 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA EARLY TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ALONG IT TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND AS OF 01Z IT APPEARS TO
BE NEARING THE COAST WITH LIGHT WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST IN ITS WAKE. SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY COMBINED WITH
SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY IS MAINTAINING SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN A
LITTLE THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
WANE INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THE INSTABILITY LOWERS AND THE FRONTAL
ZONE SETTLES SOUTH AND EAST SOME MORE. OTHERWISE, ADJUSTED THE
HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS THEN BLENDED IN THE
LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD TEND TO STALL IN THE VICINITY OF DELMARVA
OVERNIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, LOW-LEVEL DRYING WILL LOWER THE
DEW POINTS AT LEAST SOME. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT SOME
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY RIDING THE FRONT TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH
PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. OTHERWISE, SOME HIGHER
CLOUDINESS AROUND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
FRONT REMAINS STALLED TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THIS TIME AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SLOWLY BUILDS EAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
CHANCE OF GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN IN THE VICINITY AND JUST NORTH OF THE
FRONT WITH WEAK ON SHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND LOWER DELMARVA REGION. THE PRECIP FIELDS ON
THE GFS ARE MORE EXTENSIVE THEN THE MOST RECENT EC...BUT WE WILL
KEEP THE CHC POPS FOR THE SRN REGION ATTM. THE SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE
INTO FRI MORNING...WHICH WE WILL KEEP FOR NOW...BUT THE MODELS MAY
BE TRENDING A BIT FASTER WITH THE WAVE...SO IT`S POSSIBLE THAT THE
FRI MORNING SHOWERS MAY BE REMOVED IN UPCOMING FCSTS.

OVERALL...THE UPCOMING WEEKEND DOES NOT LOOK TOO BAD. THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS SAT AS AN
UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA. POPS WOULD ONLY BE IN THE CHC RANGE
AT BEST...A FEW MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING SOUTH. A MOSTLY DRY FCST
SUN INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...AT THIS WARMEST PART OF THE
YEAR. MAXS WILL BE MID 80S SOUTH/EAST TO LOW 80S NORTH/WEST.

THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK MAY HAVE A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH
THE FRONT RETURNING AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG IT. THE MODELS WILL PROBABLY CHANGE SEVERAL TIMES WITH THE
DETAILS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO WE WILL JUST USE THE WPC
POPS/TEMPS FOR TODAYS EXTENDED FCST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY
NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES THROUGH THE
AREA. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE NEAR KMIV AND KACY INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FROM NORTHWESTERLY IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, THEN MOST TERMINALS SHOULD HAVE A LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WIND OVERNIGHT BEFORE TURNING LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
TOWARD DAYBREAK. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FOG TO DEVELOP
TOWARD DAYBREAK MAINLY AT KABE, KRDG, KMIV AND KACY.

THURSDAY...VFR OVERALL, HOWEVER SOME SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON COULD GET CLOSE TO KMIV AND KACY. NORTHEAST WINDS 5-10
KNOTS SHOULD BECOME LOCALLY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU MONDAY...OVERALL VFR MUCH OF THE TIME. SCT SHOWERS
AND A FEW TSTMS MAY BRING LOCALLY POORER VSBYS/CIGS. THE MOST
LIKELY TIMES FOR THIS ARE THU NIGHT AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE NOT GONE AS HIGH AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, THUS, HAVE
CANCELLED THE SCA ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS. WINDS MAY GUST NEAR 20 KT
AT TIMES THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY JUST BEHIND A COLD FRONT, THAT
SHOULD ARRIVE LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE WATERS THU NIGHT AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART. A FEW SCA GUSTS
POSSIBLE FRI/FRI NIGHT WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RAINFALL FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE RANKED IN THE TOP 5 OF THE AVAILABLE
RELIABLE HISTORICAL DATABASE.

WILMINGTON #2 12.52. THE WETTEST WAS 13.66 IN 2013 AND THE TOP 4
WETTEST JUNES OCCURRED SINCE 2003. THE PERIOD OF RECORD (POR)
DATES BACK TO 1894.

ALLENTOWN #5 7.59 INCHES. THE WETTEST 10.51 IN 1938. POR TO 1922.
10.51 1938 THREE OF THE WETTEST JUNES OCCURRED SINCE 2003
9.13 2006
8.58 1972
8.30 2003
7.59 2015

ATLANTIC CITY #2 8.36 INCHES. THE WETTEST 8.45 INCHES 1920. POR
1874.

PHILADELPHIA #3 8.88 INCHES. THE WETTEST 10.56 2013, #2 IS 10.06
IN 1938. THREE OF 4 WETTEST JUNES OCCURRED SINCE 2003.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE IN OUR FORECAST AREA GENERALLY
AVERAGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GORSE/O`HARA
MARINE...JOHNSON/O`HARA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 020111
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
911 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA EARLY TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ALONG IT TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND AS OF 01Z IT APPEARS TO
BE NEARING THE COAST WITH LIGHT WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST IN ITS WAKE. SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY COMBINED WITH
SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY IS MAINTAINING SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN A
LITTLE THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
WANE INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THE INSTABILITY LOWERS AND THE FRONTAL
ZONE SETTLES SOUTH AND EAST SOME MORE. OTHERWISE, ADJUSTED THE
HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS THEN BLENDED IN THE
LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD TEND TO STALL IN THE VICINITY OF DELMARVA
OVERNIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, LOW-LEVEL DRYING WILL LOWER THE
DEW POINTS AT LEAST SOME. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT SOME
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY RIDING THE FRONT TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH
PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. OTHERWISE, SOME HIGHER
CLOUDINESS AROUND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
FRONT REMAINS STALLED TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THIS TIME AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SLOWLY BUILDS EAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
CHANCE OF GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN IN THE VICINITY AND JUST NORTH OF THE
FRONT WITH WEAK ON SHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND LOWER DELMARVA REGION. THE PRECIP FIELDS ON
THE GFS ARE MORE EXTENSIVE THEN THE MOST RECENT EC...BUT WE WILL
KEEP THE CHC POPS FOR THE SRN REGION ATTM. THE SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE
INTO FRI MORNING...WHICH WE WILL KEEP FOR NOW...BUT THE MODELS MAY
BE TRENDING A BIT FASTER WITH THE WAVE...SO IT`S POSSIBLE THAT THE
FRI MORNING SHOWERS MAY BE REMOVED IN UPCOMING FCSTS.

OVERALL...THE UPCOMING WEEKEND DOES NOT LOOK TOO BAD. THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS SAT AS AN
UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA. POPS WOULD ONLY BE IN THE CHC RANGE
AT BEST...A FEW MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING SOUTH. A MOSTLY DRY FCST
SUN INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...AT THIS WARMEST PART OF THE
YEAR. MAXS WILL BE MID 80S SOUTH/EAST TO LOW 80S NORTH/WEST.

THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK MAY HAVE A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH
THE FRONT RETURNING AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG IT. THE MODELS WILL PROBABLY CHANGE SEVERAL TIMES WITH THE
DETAILS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO WE WILL JUST USE THE WPC
POPS/TEMPS FOR TODAYS EXTENDED FCST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY
NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES THROUGH THE
AREA. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE NEAR KMIV AND KACY INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FROM NORTHWESTERLY IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, THEN MOST TERMINALS SHOULD HAVE A LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WIND OVERNIGHT BEFORE TURNING LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
TOWARD DAYBREAK. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FOG TO DEVELOP
TOWARD DAYBREAK MAINLY AT KABE, KRDG, KMIV AND KACY.

THURSDAY...VFR OVERALL, HOWEVER SOME SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON COULD GET CLOSE TO KMIV AND KACY. NORTHEAST WINDS 5-10
KNOTS SHOULD BECOME LOCALLY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU MONDAY...OVERALL VFR MUCH OF THE TIME. SCT SHOWERS
AND A FEW TSTMS MAY BRING LOCALLY POORER VSBYS/CIGS. THE MOST
LIKELY TIMES FOR THIS ARE THU NIGHT AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE NOT GONE AS HIGH AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, THUS, HAVE
CANCELLED THE SCA ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS. WINDS MAY GUST NEAR 20 KT
AT TIMES THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY JUST BEHIND A COLD FRONT, THAT
SHOULD ARRIVE LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE WATERS THU NIGHT AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART. A FEW SCA GUSTS
POSSIBLE FRI/FRI NIGHT WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RAINFALL FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE RANKED IN THE TOP 5 OF THE AVAILABLE
RELIABLE HISTORICAL DATABASE.

WILMINGTON #2 12.52. THE WETTEST WAS 13.66 IN 2013 AND THE TOP 4
WETTEST JUNES OCCURRED SINCE 2003. THE PERIOD OF RECORD (POR)
DATES BACK TO 1894.

ALLENTOWN #5 7.59 INCHES. THE WETTEST 10.51 IN 1938. POR TO 1922.
10.51 1938 THREE OF THE WETTEST JUNES OCCURRED SINCE 2003
9.13 2006
8.58 1972
8.30 2003
7.59 2015

ATLANTIC CITY #2 8.36 INCHES. THE WETTEST 8.45 INCHES 1920. POR
1874.

PHILADELPHIA #3 8.88 INCHES. THE WETTEST 10.56 2013, #2 IS 10.06
IN 1938. THREE OF 4 WETTEST JUNES OCCURRED SINCE 2003.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE IN OUR FORECAST AREA GENERALLY
AVERAGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GORSE/O`HARA
MARINE...JOHNSON/O`HARA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020103
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
903 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES.

CONTINUED MAINLY DRY THURSDAY AS BOUNDARY WELL SOUTH OF REGION
WILL ONLY SLOWLY BEGIN TO MOVE BACK NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
ATTEMPT TO REACH SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ON FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT WAVE TRAVERSING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
OUR SOUTH...WITH MOST MODELS BUYING INTO THIS THINKING. HAVE
SUPPRESSED POPS AS A RESULT BUT STILL HAVE CHANCE VALUES ACROSS
MOST AREAS. INSTABILITY LOOKS BETTER ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH
PERHAPS 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE TO WORK WITH AT MGW...AS OPPOSED TO
NEARLY ZERO AT FKL. HAVE REDUCED THUNDER CHANCES AS WELL AND HAVE
REMOVED IT NORTH OF I-80.

PRECIP COVERAGE WILL WANE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND
DEPARTURE OF THE SURFACE WAVE. ON SATURDAY CHANCE POPS MAINLY
SOUHT AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE UNDER WEAK TROUGH ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN JUST A BIT BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA WILL LINGER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. BY SUNDAY NIGHT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT
MAY FINALLY SHIFT OUT OF THE REGION...BRINGING A BRIEF DRY SPELL
TO ALL LOCATIONS. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
GFS/ECMWF HAVE VASTLY DIFFERENT TIMING FOR WHEN THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WOULD CROSS THE REGION...WITH THE ECMWF MUCH FASTER
WITH THE FRONT. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH TIMING SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF...PRIMARILY BECAUSE MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE IN
BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CREEP
UP A FEW DEGREES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR THE BL TO DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT AND WITH
FEW CLOUDS...THINK THAT RESTRICTIONS IN FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
LIKELY. ONLY QUESTION WILL BE HOW LOW VSBYS AND CIGS WILL GO...WITH
SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. FOR NOW...OPTED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...BRINGING A RETURN TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE.

WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COULD PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020103
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
903 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES.

CONTINUED MAINLY DRY THURSDAY AS BOUNDARY WELL SOUTH OF REGION
WILL ONLY SLOWLY BEGIN TO MOVE BACK NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
ATTEMPT TO REACH SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ON FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT WAVE TRAVERSING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
OUR SOUTH...WITH MOST MODELS BUYING INTO THIS THINKING. HAVE
SUPPRESSED POPS AS A RESULT BUT STILL HAVE CHANCE VALUES ACROSS
MOST AREAS. INSTABILITY LOOKS BETTER ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH
PERHAPS 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE TO WORK WITH AT MGW...AS OPPOSED TO
NEARLY ZERO AT FKL. HAVE REDUCED THUNDER CHANCES AS WELL AND HAVE
REMOVED IT NORTH OF I-80.

PRECIP COVERAGE WILL WANE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND
DEPARTURE OF THE SURFACE WAVE. ON SATURDAY CHANCE POPS MAINLY
SOUHT AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE UNDER WEAK TROUGH ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN JUST A BIT BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA WILL LINGER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. BY SUNDAY NIGHT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT
MAY FINALLY SHIFT OUT OF THE REGION...BRINGING A BRIEF DRY SPELL
TO ALL LOCATIONS. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
GFS/ECMWF HAVE VASTLY DIFFERENT TIMING FOR WHEN THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WOULD CROSS THE REGION...WITH THE ECMWF MUCH FASTER
WITH THE FRONT. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH TIMING SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF...PRIMARILY BECAUSE MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE IN
BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CREEP
UP A FEW DEGREES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR THE BL TO DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT AND WITH
FEW CLOUDS...THINK THAT RESTRICTIONS IN FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
LIKELY. ONLY QUESTION WILL BE HOW LOW VSBYS AND CIGS WILL GO...WITH
SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. FOR NOW...OPTED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...BRINGING A RETURN TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE.

WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COULD PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020007
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
807 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL THEN STALL OVER THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BRINGING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAK SFC TROUGH FROM NEAR KBWI SW TO
KROA. SCT/BKN CU HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THIS REGION...WITH SKIES
GENLY MOSTLY SUNNY FARTHER S/E. SFC COLD FRONT LAGS BACK OVER SE
OHIO AND WV. AREAS OF SMOKE LIKELY FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES IS
MAKING FOR A HAZY SUN HOWEVER...AND THIS HAS LIKELY SHAVED A FEW
DEGREES OF TEMPERATURE THIS AFTN...GENLY RUNNING IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. NOT A LOT OF INSTABILITY THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING (DEW
PTS INTO LWR-MID 60S MOST AREAS) BUT WILL MAINTAIN 20% POPS OVER
THE PIEDMONT...KEEPING A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE THROUGH 23Z.

LATER THIS EVENING...AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES CLOSER INTO THE
REGION SOME INCREASE IN LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL OCCUR...THOUGH THE
12Z/01 NAM REMAINS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH RESPECT TO SHOWERS/TSTMS
ACCOMPANYING THE BOUNDARY THAN DOES THE LATEST GFS. THE DEEPER
MOISTURE AND STRONGER FORCING WILL REMAIN WELL N/W OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...SO WILL ONLY FORECAST A 20%-30% POP WITH THE
BOUNDARY. INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE REGION THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DEVELOP A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER ERN NC AS ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER UPPER WAVE LOCATES OVER THE MID MS
VALLEY. 20-40% POPS THURSDAY MORNING INCREASE TO 40-60% POPS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TO ~60-70% OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. PWATS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 2+ INCHES THURSDAY
NIGHT IN DEEP LAYER SW FLOW. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE IN CONCERT WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING ALONG THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT ISSUING ANY FLASH
FLOOD ADVISORIES AT THIS POINT...BUT THIS PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY DUE TO VERY MOIST ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. IF
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP VERIFIES BY LATER THU...LATER SHIFTS MAY
NEED TO CONSIDER A WATCH FOR CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT THU
THROUGH FRI AS THE BOUNDARY AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE REMAIN OVER
THE REGION.  ANOTHER ROUND OF LIKELY POPS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY. 72 HR RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH SAT AFTN AVERAGE
BETWEEN 1 TO 2"...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

FORECAST HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AREA GENERALLY ON THE LOW-SIDE
OF GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE ANY
PERIODS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGHS THURSDAY RANGE FROM AROUND 80 F NW...TO
THE UPPER 80S SE...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER
70S NW...TO THE MID 80S FAR SE. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S.

PATTERN A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN SAT AS THE FRONT PROGGED TO SAG A
BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND WEAKEN...BUT POPS STILL LOOK WELL ABOVE THE
TYPICAL CLIMO OF ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED LATE AFTN/EVENING
STORMS. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN 30-50% POPS ON SAT...WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPSTREAM BLOCKING PATTERN RESULTS IN LITTLE MOVEMENT OF OVERALL
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THRU THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A GENERAL BROAD TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG
THE EAST COAST KEEPING CONDITIONS RATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE AND EXTENDED.

WHILE MODELS AGREE ON THE OVERALL PATTERN THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
WITH THE TIMING OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC IS
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. THE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY WITH A TROF LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY. THUS LOOK FOR CHC POPS EACH DAY AS TIMING OF ANY ONE
DISTURBANCE RATHER PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT.
HIGHS SUN IN THE M-U80S...85-90 MON THROUGH WED. LOWS U60S-M70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL DROP SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE ALLOWED FOR A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT RAIN LATE
THURSDAY MORNING AT RIC AND SBY. MOST OF THE PCPN THURSDAY WILL
ARRIVE IN THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING IN THE FORM OF CONVECTION.

HAVE MAINLY VFR CONDS BUT WITH LOWERING CONDITIONS AT SBY. A FEW
HOURS OF IFR VSBYS ARE INCLUDED NEAR SUNRISE AS FORECAST BY BOTH MOS
FORECASTS. THIS OCCURS NEAR THE TIME OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR LATE DAY AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF PCPN.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY S TO SW AROUND 10 KT OR LESS. WINDS OVER THE MIDDLE BAY
AND COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE BECOME NW TO N BY THURSDAY
MORNING AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND STALLS NEAR HAMPTON ROADS.
WINDS BECOME VARIABLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND REMAIN S TO SW
SOUTH OF THE FRONT OVER THE NC WATERS. WAVES IN THE BAY AVG 1-2 FT
AND SEAS ON THE COASTAL WATERS AVG 2-4 FT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SUB-
SCA CONDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE STALLED FRONT WILL
ALSO RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY LASTING THROUGH
FRIDAY. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINS REDUCING VISIBILITY AND GUSTY WINDS
FROM STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE 2015 CLIMATE:

AT NORFOLK:
*AVG TEMPERATURE OF 78.7 F RANKS AS THE 7TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
*TOTAL PRECIPITATION OF 8.34" RANKS AS 5TH WETTEST ON RECORD.

AT RICHMOND:
*AVG TEMPERATURE OF 77.92 F RANKS AS THE 8TH WARMEST ON RECORD.

PRECIPITATION TOTAL OF 6.05" DID NOT ATTAIN A TOP 10 RANKING AT
RIC AIRPORT...BUT MANY LOCATIONS IN THE METRO AREA...RECEIVED IN
EXCESS OF 10.00 INCHES FOR THE MONTH.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...JAO
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020007
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
807 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL THEN STALL OVER THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BRINGING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAK SFC TROUGH FROM NEAR KBWI SW TO
KROA. SCT/BKN CU HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THIS REGION...WITH SKIES
GENLY MOSTLY SUNNY FARTHER S/E. SFC COLD FRONT LAGS BACK OVER SE
OHIO AND WV. AREAS OF SMOKE LIKELY FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES IS
MAKING FOR A HAZY SUN HOWEVER...AND THIS HAS LIKELY SHAVED A FEW
DEGREES OF TEMPERATURE THIS AFTN...GENLY RUNNING IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. NOT A LOT OF INSTABILITY THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING (DEW
PTS INTO LWR-MID 60S MOST AREAS) BUT WILL MAINTAIN 20% POPS OVER
THE PIEDMONT...KEEPING A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE THROUGH 23Z.

LATER THIS EVENING...AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES CLOSER INTO THE
REGION SOME INCREASE IN LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL OCCUR...THOUGH THE
12Z/01 NAM REMAINS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH RESPECT TO SHOWERS/TSTMS
ACCOMPANYING THE BOUNDARY THAN DOES THE LATEST GFS. THE DEEPER
MOISTURE AND STRONGER FORCING WILL REMAIN WELL N/W OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...SO WILL ONLY FORECAST A 20%-30% POP WITH THE
BOUNDARY. INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE REGION THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DEVELOP A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER ERN NC AS ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER UPPER WAVE LOCATES OVER THE MID MS
VALLEY. 20-40% POPS THURSDAY MORNING INCREASE TO 40-60% POPS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TO ~60-70% OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. PWATS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 2+ INCHES THURSDAY
NIGHT IN DEEP LAYER SW FLOW. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE IN CONCERT WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING ALONG THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT ISSUING ANY FLASH
FLOOD ADVISORIES AT THIS POINT...BUT THIS PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY DUE TO VERY MOIST ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. IF
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP VERIFIES BY LATER THU...LATER SHIFTS MAY
NEED TO CONSIDER A WATCH FOR CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT THU
THROUGH FRI AS THE BOUNDARY AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE REMAIN OVER
THE REGION.  ANOTHER ROUND OF LIKELY POPS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY. 72 HR RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH SAT AFTN AVERAGE
BETWEEN 1 TO 2"...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

FORECAST HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AREA GENERALLY ON THE LOW-SIDE
OF GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE ANY
PERIODS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGHS THURSDAY RANGE FROM AROUND 80 F NW...TO
THE UPPER 80S SE...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER
70S NW...TO THE MID 80S FAR SE. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S.

PATTERN A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN SAT AS THE FRONT PROGGED TO SAG A
BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND WEAKEN...BUT POPS STILL LOOK WELL ABOVE THE
TYPICAL CLIMO OF ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED LATE AFTN/EVENING
STORMS. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN 30-50% POPS ON SAT...WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPSTREAM BLOCKING PATTERN RESULTS IN LITTLE MOVEMENT OF OVERALL
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THRU THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A GENERAL BROAD TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG
THE EAST COAST KEEPING CONDITIONS RATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE AND EXTENDED.

WHILE MODELS AGREE ON THE OVERALL PATTERN THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
WITH THE TIMING OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC IS
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. THE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY WITH A TROF LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY. THUS LOOK FOR CHC POPS EACH DAY AS TIMING OF ANY ONE
DISTURBANCE RATHER PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT.
HIGHS SUN IN THE M-U80S...85-90 MON THROUGH WED. LOWS U60S-M70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL DROP SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE ALLOWED FOR A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT RAIN LATE
THURSDAY MORNING AT RIC AND SBY. MOST OF THE PCPN THURSDAY WILL
ARRIVE IN THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING IN THE FORM OF CONVECTION.

HAVE MAINLY VFR CONDS BUT WITH LOWERING CONDITIONS AT SBY. A FEW
HOURS OF IFR VSBYS ARE INCLUDED NEAR SUNRISE AS FORECAST BY BOTH MOS
FORECASTS. THIS OCCURS NEAR THE TIME OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR LATE DAY AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF PCPN.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY S TO SW AROUND 10 KT OR LESS. WINDS OVER THE MIDDLE BAY
AND COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE BECOME NW TO N BY THURSDAY
MORNING AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND STALLS NEAR HAMPTON ROADS.
WINDS BECOME VARIABLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND REMAIN S TO SW
SOUTH OF THE FRONT OVER THE NC WATERS. WAVES IN THE BAY AVG 1-2 FT
AND SEAS ON THE COASTAL WATERS AVG 2-4 FT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SUB-
SCA CONDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE STALLED FRONT WILL
ALSO RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY LASTING THROUGH
FRIDAY. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINS REDUCING VISIBILITY AND GUSTY WINDS
FROM STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE 2015 CLIMATE:

AT NORFOLK:
*AVG TEMPERATURE OF 78.7 F RANKS AS THE 7TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
*TOTAL PRECIPITATION OF 8.34" RANKS AS 5TH WETTEST ON RECORD.

AT RICHMOND:
*AVG TEMPERATURE OF 77.92 F RANKS AS THE 8TH WARMEST ON RECORD.

PRECIPITATION TOTAL OF 6.05" DID NOT ATTAIN A TOP 10 RANKING AT
RIC AIRPORT...BUT MANY LOCATIONS IN THE METRO AREA...RECEIVED IN
EXCESS OF 10.00 INCHES FOR THE MONTH.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...JAO
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020007
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
807 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL THEN STALL OVER THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BRINGING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAK SFC TROUGH FROM NEAR KBWI SW TO
KROA. SCT/BKN CU HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THIS REGION...WITH SKIES
GENLY MOSTLY SUNNY FARTHER S/E. SFC COLD FRONT LAGS BACK OVER SE
OHIO AND WV. AREAS OF SMOKE LIKELY FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES IS
MAKING FOR A HAZY SUN HOWEVER...AND THIS HAS LIKELY SHAVED A FEW
DEGREES OF TEMPERATURE THIS AFTN...GENLY RUNNING IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. NOT A LOT OF INSTABILITY THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING (DEW
PTS INTO LWR-MID 60S MOST AREAS) BUT WILL MAINTAIN 20% POPS OVER
THE PIEDMONT...KEEPING A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE THROUGH 23Z.

LATER THIS EVENING...AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES CLOSER INTO THE
REGION SOME INCREASE IN LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL OCCUR...THOUGH THE
12Z/01 NAM REMAINS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH RESPECT TO SHOWERS/TSTMS
ACCOMPANYING THE BOUNDARY THAN DOES THE LATEST GFS. THE DEEPER
MOISTURE AND STRONGER FORCING WILL REMAIN WELL N/W OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...SO WILL ONLY FORECAST A 20%-30% POP WITH THE
BOUNDARY. INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE REGION THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DEVELOP A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER ERN NC AS ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER UPPER WAVE LOCATES OVER THE MID MS
VALLEY. 20-40% POPS THURSDAY MORNING INCREASE TO 40-60% POPS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TO ~60-70% OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. PWATS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 2+ INCHES THURSDAY
NIGHT IN DEEP LAYER SW FLOW. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE IN CONCERT WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING ALONG THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT ISSUING ANY FLASH
FLOOD ADVISORIES AT THIS POINT...BUT THIS PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY DUE TO VERY MOIST ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. IF
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP VERIFIES BY LATER THU...LATER SHIFTS MAY
NEED TO CONSIDER A WATCH FOR CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT THU
THROUGH FRI AS THE BOUNDARY AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE REMAIN OVER
THE REGION.  ANOTHER ROUND OF LIKELY POPS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY. 72 HR RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH SAT AFTN AVERAGE
BETWEEN 1 TO 2"...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

FORECAST HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AREA GENERALLY ON THE LOW-SIDE
OF GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE ANY
PERIODS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGHS THURSDAY RANGE FROM AROUND 80 F NW...TO
THE UPPER 80S SE...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER
70S NW...TO THE MID 80S FAR SE. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S.

PATTERN A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN SAT AS THE FRONT PROGGED TO SAG A
BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND WEAKEN...BUT POPS STILL LOOK WELL ABOVE THE
TYPICAL CLIMO OF ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED LATE AFTN/EVENING
STORMS. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN 30-50% POPS ON SAT...WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPSTREAM BLOCKING PATTERN RESULTS IN LITTLE MOVEMENT OF OVERALL
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THRU THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A GENERAL BROAD TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG
THE EAST COAST KEEPING CONDITIONS RATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE AND EXTENDED.

WHILE MODELS AGREE ON THE OVERALL PATTERN THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
WITH THE TIMING OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC IS
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. THE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY WITH A TROF LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY. THUS LOOK FOR CHC POPS EACH DAY AS TIMING OF ANY ONE
DISTURBANCE RATHER PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT.
HIGHS SUN IN THE M-U80S...85-90 MON THROUGH WED. LOWS U60S-M70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL DROP SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE ALLOWED FOR A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT RAIN LATE
THURSDAY MORNING AT RIC AND SBY. MOST OF THE PCPN THURSDAY WILL
ARRIVE IN THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING IN THE FORM OF CONVECTION.

HAVE MAINLY VFR CONDS BUT WITH LOWERING CONDITIONS AT SBY. A FEW
HOURS OF IFR VSBYS ARE INCLUDED NEAR SUNRISE AS FORECAST BY BOTH MOS
FORECASTS. THIS OCCURS NEAR THE TIME OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR LATE DAY AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF PCPN.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY S TO SW AROUND 10 KT OR LESS. WINDS OVER THE MIDDLE BAY
AND COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE BECOME NW TO N BY THURSDAY
MORNING AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND STALLS NEAR HAMPTON ROADS.
WINDS BECOME VARIABLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND REMAIN S TO SW
SOUTH OF THE FRONT OVER THE NC WATERS. WAVES IN THE BAY AVG 1-2 FT
AND SEAS ON THE COASTAL WATERS AVG 2-4 FT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SUB-
SCA CONDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE STALLED FRONT WILL
ALSO RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY LASTING THROUGH
FRIDAY. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINS REDUCING VISIBILITY AND GUSTY WINDS
FROM STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE 2015 CLIMATE:

AT NORFOLK:
*AVG TEMPERATURE OF 78.7 F RANKS AS THE 7TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
*TOTAL PRECIPITATION OF 8.34" RANKS AS 5TH WETTEST ON RECORD.

AT RICHMOND:
*AVG TEMPERATURE OF 77.92 F RANKS AS THE 8TH WARMEST ON RECORD.

PRECIPITATION TOTAL OF 6.05" DID NOT ATTAIN A TOP 10 RANKING AT
RIC AIRPORT...BUT MANY LOCATIONS IN THE METRO AREA...RECEIVED IN
EXCESS OF 10.00 INCHES FOR THE MONTH.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...JAO
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020007
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
807 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL THEN STALL OVER THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BRINGING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAK SFC TROUGH FROM NEAR KBWI SW TO
KROA. SCT/BKN CU HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THIS REGION...WITH SKIES
GENLY MOSTLY SUNNY FARTHER S/E. SFC COLD FRONT LAGS BACK OVER SE
OHIO AND WV. AREAS OF SMOKE LIKELY FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES IS
MAKING FOR A HAZY SUN HOWEVER...AND THIS HAS LIKELY SHAVED A FEW
DEGREES OF TEMPERATURE THIS AFTN...GENLY RUNNING IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. NOT A LOT OF INSTABILITY THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING (DEW
PTS INTO LWR-MID 60S MOST AREAS) BUT WILL MAINTAIN 20% POPS OVER
THE PIEDMONT...KEEPING A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE THROUGH 23Z.

LATER THIS EVENING...AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES CLOSER INTO THE
REGION SOME INCREASE IN LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL OCCUR...THOUGH THE
12Z/01 NAM REMAINS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH RESPECT TO SHOWERS/TSTMS
ACCOMPANYING THE BOUNDARY THAN DOES THE LATEST GFS. THE DEEPER
MOISTURE AND STRONGER FORCING WILL REMAIN WELL N/W OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...SO WILL ONLY FORECAST A 20%-30% POP WITH THE
BOUNDARY. INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE REGION THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DEVELOP A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER ERN NC AS ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER UPPER WAVE LOCATES OVER THE MID MS
VALLEY. 20-40% POPS THURSDAY MORNING INCREASE TO 40-60% POPS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TO ~60-70% OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. PWATS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 2+ INCHES THURSDAY
NIGHT IN DEEP LAYER SW FLOW. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE IN CONCERT WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING ALONG THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT ISSUING ANY FLASH
FLOOD ADVISORIES AT THIS POINT...BUT THIS PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY DUE TO VERY MOIST ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. IF
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP VERIFIES BY LATER THU...LATER SHIFTS MAY
NEED TO CONSIDER A WATCH FOR CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT THU
THROUGH FRI AS THE BOUNDARY AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE REMAIN OVER
THE REGION.  ANOTHER ROUND OF LIKELY POPS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY. 72 HR RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH SAT AFTN AVERAGE
BETWEEN 1 TO 2"...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

FORECAST HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AREA GENERALLY ON THE LOW-SIDE
OF GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE ANY
PERIODS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGHS THURSDAY RANGE FROM AROUND 80 F NW...TO
THE UPPER 80S SE...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER
70S NW...TO THE MID 80S FAR SE. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S.

PATTERN A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN SAT AS THE FRONT PROGGED TO SAG A
BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND WEAKEN...BUT POPS STILL LOOK WELL ABOVE THE
TYPICAL CLIMO OF ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED LATE AFTN/EVENING
STORMS. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN 30-50% POPS ON SAT...WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPSTREAM BLOCKING PATTERN RESULTS IN LITTLE MOVEMENT OF OVERALL
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THRU THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A GENERAL BROAD TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG
THE EAST COAST KEEPING CONDITIONS RATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE AND EXTENDED.

WHILE MODELS AGREE ON THE OVERALL PATTERN THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
WITH THE TIMING OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC IS
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. THE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY WITH A TROF LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY. THUS LOOK FOR CHC POPS EACH DAY AS TIMING OF ANY ONE
DISTURBANCE RATHER PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT.
HIGHS SUN IN THE M-U80S...85-90 MON THROUGH WED. LOWS U60S-M70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL DROP SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE ALLOWED FOR A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT RAIN LATE
THURSDAY MORNING AT RIC AND SBY. MOST OF THE PCPN THURSDAY WILL
ARRIVE IN THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING IN THE FORM OF CONVECTION.

HAVE MAINLY VFR CONDS BUT WITH LOWERING CONDITIONS AT SBY. A FEW
HOURS OF IFR VSBYS ARE INCLUDED NEAR SUNRISE AS FORECAST BY BOTH MOS
FORECASTS. THIS OCCURS NEAR THE TIME OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR LATE DAY AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF PCPN.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY S TO SW AROUND 10 KT OR LESS. WINDS OVER THE MIDDLE BAY
AND COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE BECOME NW TO N BY THURSDAY
MORNING AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND STALLS NEAR HAMPTON ROADS.
WINDS BECOME VARIABLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND REMAIN S TO SW
SOUTH OF THE FRONT OVER THE NC WATERS. WAVES IN THE BAY AVG 1-2 FT
AND SEAS ON THE COASTAL WATERS AVG 2-4 FT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SUB-
SCA CONDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE STALLED FRONT WILL
ALSO RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY LASTING THROUGH
FRIDAY. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINS REDUCING VISIBILITY AND GUSTY WINDS
FROM STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE 2015 CLIMATE:

AT NORFOLK:
*AVG TEMPERATURE OF 78.7 F RANKS AS THE 7TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
*TOTAL PRECIPITATION OF 8.34" RANKS AS 5TH WETTEST ON RECORD.

AT RICHMOND:
*AVG TEMPERATURE OF 77.92 F RANKS AS THE 8TH WARMEST ON RECORD.

PRECIPITATION TOTAL OF 6.05" DID NOT ATTAIN A TOP 10 RANKING AT
RIC AIRPORT...BUT MANY LOCATIONS IN THE METRO AREA...RECEIVED IN
EXCESS OF 10.00 INCHES FOR THE MONTH.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...JAO
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 012242
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
642 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA EARLY TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ALONG IT TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE SURVEY TEAM HAS CONCLUDED THEIR WORK IN CHESTER AND LEHIGH
COUNTIES. THE RESULTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED VIA PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENTS /PNS/ AND THE INFORMATION IS PRELIMINARY. MORE DETAILS
WILL BE ADDED ONCE THE SURVEY TEAM RETURNS TO THE OFFICE.

A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND AS OF 22Z IT IS NEAR
NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY THEN ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THEN TO
NORTHERN VIRGINIA. THE MAIN LIFT IS NORTH OF OUR AREA, HOWEVER WHERE
SOME DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS HAS HELPED TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS ACROSS
POTIONS OF MARYLAND. THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP AN ISOLATED SHOWER
MENTION FOR AWHILE LONGER MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS.
OTHERWISE, ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINTS BASED ON THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONS THEN BLENDED IN THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE.

WE ARE STILL EXPECTING THE FRONT TO SLOW AND EVENTUALLY STALL
OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA BY 12Z /WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
OF SOUTHERN DELAWARE/. BEHIND THE FRONT, DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL
OCCUR ALLOWING THE DEW POINTS TO LOWER. THIS, COMBINED WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUING TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION, WILL
RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
FRONT REMAINS STALLED TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THIS TIME AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SLOWLY BUILDS EAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
CHANCE OF GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN IN THE VICINITY AND JUST NORTH OF THE
FRONT WITH WEAK ON SHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND LOWER DELMARVA REGION. THE PRECIP FIELDS ON
THE GFS ARE MORE EXTENSIVE THEN THE MOST RECENT EC...BUT WE WILL
KEEP THE CHC POPS FOR THE SRN REGION ATTM. THE SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE
INTO FRI MORNING...WHICH WE WILL KEEP FOR NOW...BUT THE MODELS MAY
BE TRENDING A BIT FASTER WITH THE WAVE...SO IT`S POSSIBLE THAT THE
FRI MORNING SHOWERS MAY BE REMOVED IN UPCOMING FCSTS.

OVERALL...THE UPCOMING WEEKEND DOES NOT LOOK TOO BAD. THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS SAT AS AN
UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA. POPS WOULD ONLY BE IN THE CHC RANGE
AT BEST...A FEW MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING SOUTH. A MOSTLY DRY FCST
SUN INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...AT THIS WARMEST PART OF THE
YEAR. MAXS WILL BE MID 80S SOUTH/EAST TO LOW 80S NORTH/WEST.

THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK MAY HAVE A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH
THE FRONT RETURNING AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG IT. THE MODELS WILL PROBABLY CHANGE SEVERAL TIMES WITH THE
DETAILS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO WE WILL JUST USE THE WPC
POPS/TEMPS FOR TODAYS EXTENDED FCST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY
NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS TO DIMINISH. ANY SHOWER THIS
EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER ISOLATED. THE WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, THEN MOST TERMINALS
SHOULD HAVE A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND OVERNIGHT THEN TURN LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY TOWARD DAYBREAK. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FOG
TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK PRIMARILY AT KABE, KRDG, AND KACY.

THURSDAY...VFR OVERALL, HOWEVER SOME SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON COULD GET CLOSE TO KMIV AND KACY. NORTHEAST WINDS 5-10
KNOTS BECOMING LOCALLY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU MONDAY...OVERALL VFR MUCH OF THE TIME. SCT SHOWERS
AND A FEW TSTMS MAY BRING LOCALLY POORER VSBYS/CIGS. THE MOST
LIKELY TIMES FOR THIS ARE THU NIGHT AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE NOT GONE AS HIGH AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, THUS, HAVE
CANCELLED THE SCA ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS. WINDS MAY GUST NEAR 20 KT
AT TIMES THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY JUST BEHIND A COLD FRONT, THAT
SHOULD ARRIVE LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE WATERS THU NIGHT AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART. A FEW SCA GUSTS
POSSIBLE FRI/FRI NIGHT WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR NEW
JERSEY AND LOW FOR DELAWARE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RAINFALL FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE RANKED IN THE TOP 5 OF THE AVAILABLE
RELIABLE HISTORICAL DATABASE.

WILMINGTON #2 12.52. THE WETTEST WAS 13.66 IN 2013 AND THE TOP 4
WETTEST JUNES OCCURRED SINCE 2003. THE PERIOD OF RECORD (POR)
DATES BACK TO 1894.

ALLENTOWN #5 7.59 INCHES. THE WETTEST 10.51 IN 1938. POR TO 1922.
10.51 1938 THREE OF THE WETTEST JUNES OCCURRED SINCE 2003
9.13 2006
8.58 1972
8.30 2003
7.59 2015

ATLANTIC CITY #2 8.36 INCHES. THE WETTEST 8.45 INCHES 1920. POR
1874.

PHILADELPHIA #3 8.88 INCHES. THE WETTEST 10.56 2013, #2 IS 10.06
IN 1938. THREE OF 4 WETTEST JUNES OCCURRED SINCE 2003.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE IN OUR FORECAST AREA GENERALLY
AVERAGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GORSE/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GORSE/O`HARA
MARINE...JOHNSON/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 012242
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
642 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA EARLY TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ALONG IT TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE SURVEY TEAM HAS CONCLUDED THEIR WORK IN CHESTER AND LEHIGH
COUNTIES. THE RESULTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED VIA PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENTS /PNS/ AND THE INFORMATION IS PRELIMINARY. MORE DETAILS
WILL BE ADDED ONCE THE SURVEY TEAM RETURNS TO THE OFFICE.

A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND AS OF 22Z IT IS NEAR
NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY THEN ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THEN TO
NORTHERN VIRGINIA. THE MAIN LIFT IS NORTH OF OUR AREA, HOWEVER WHERE
SOME DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS HAS HELPED TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS ACROSS
POTIONS OF MARYLAND. THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP AN ISOLATED SHOWER
MENTION FOR AWHILE LONGER MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS.
OTHERWISE, ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINTS BASED ON THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONS THEN BLENDED IN THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE.

WE ARE STILL EXPECTING THE FRONT TO SLOW AND EVENTUALLY STALL
OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA BY 12Z /WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
OF SOUTHERN DELAWARE/. BEHIND THE FRONT, DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL
OCCUR ALLOWING THE DEW POINTS TO LOWER. THIS, COMBINED WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUING TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION, WILL
RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
FRONT REMAINS STALLED TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THIS TIME AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SLOWLY BUILDS EAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
CHANCE OF GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN IN THE VICINITY AND JUST NORTH OF THE
FRONT WITH WEAK ON SHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND LOWER DELMARVA REGION. THE PRECIP FIELDS ON
THE GFS ARE MORE EXTENSIVE THEN THE MOST RECENT EC...BUT WE WILL
KEEP THE CHC POPS FOR THE SRN REGION ATTM. THE SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE
INTO FRI MORNING...WHICH WE WILL KEEP FOR NOW...BUT THE MODELS MAY
BE TRENDING A BIT FASTER WITH THE WAVE...SO IT`S POSSIBLE THAT THE
FRI MORNING SHOWERS MAY BE REMOVED IN UPCOMING FCSTS.

OVERALL...THE UPCOMING WEEKEND DOES NOT LOOK TOO BAD. THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS SAT AS AN
UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA. POPS WOULD ONLY BE IN THE CHC RANGE
AT BEST...A FEW MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING SOUTH. A MOSTLY DRY FCST
SUN INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...AT THIS WARMEST PART OF THE
YEAR. MAXS WILL BE MID 80S SOUTH/EAST TO LOW 80S NORTH/WEST.

THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK MAY HAVE A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH
THE FRONT RETURNING AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG IT. THE MODELS WILL PROBABLY CHANGE SEVERAL TIMES WITH THE
DETAILS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO WE WILL JUST USE THE WPC
POPS/TEMPS FOR TODAYS EXTENDED FCST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY
NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS TO DIMINISH. ANY SHOWER THIS
EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER ISOLATED. THE WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, THEN MOST TERMINALS
SHOULD HAVE A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND OVERNIGHT THEN TURN LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY TOWARD DAYBREAK. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FOG
TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK PRIMARILY AT KABE, KRDG, AND KACY.

THURSDAY...VFR OVERALL, HOWEVER SOME SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON COULD GET CLOSE TO KMIV AND KACY. NORTHEAST WINDS 5-10
KNOTS BECOMING LOCALLY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU MONDAY...OVERALL VFR MUCH OF THE TIME. SCT SHOWERS
AND A FEW TSTMS MAY BRING LOCALLY POORER VSBYS/CIGS. THE MOST
LIKELY TIMES FOR THIS ARE THU NIGHT AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE NOT GONE AS HIGH AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, THUS, HAVE
CANCELLED THE SCA ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS. WINDS MAY GUST NEAR 20 KT
AT TIMES THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY JUST BEHIND A COLD FRONT, THAT
SHOULD ARRIVE LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE WATERS THU NIGHT AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART. A FEW SCA GUSTS
POSSIBLE FRI/FRI NIGHT WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR NEW
JERSEY AND LOW FOR DELAWARE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RAINFALL FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE RANKED IN THE TOP 5 OF THE AVAILABLE
RELIABLE HISTORICAL DATABASE.

WILMINGTON #2 12.52. THE WETTEST WAS 13.66 IN 2013 AND THE TOP 4
WETTEST JUNES OCCURRED SINCE 2003. THE PERIOD OF RECORD (POR)
DATES BACK TO 1894.

ALLENTOWN #5 7.59 INCHES. THE WETTEST 10.51 IN 1938. POR TO 1922.
10.51 1938 THREE OF THE WETTEST JUNES OCCURRED SINCE 2003
9.13 2006
8.58 1972
8.30 2003
7.59 2015

ATLANTIC CITY #2 8.36 INCHES. THE WETTEST 8.45 INCHES 1920. POR
1874.

PHILADELPHIA #3 8.88 INCHES. THE WETTEST 10.56 2013, #2 IS 10.06
IN 1938. THREE OF 4 WETTEST JUNES OCCURRED SINCE 2003.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE IN OUR FORECAST AREA GENERALLY
AVERAGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GORSE/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GORSE/O`HARA
MARINE...JOHNSON/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 012242
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
642 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA EARLY TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ALONG IT TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE SURVEY TEAM HAS CONCLUDED THEIR WORK IN CHESTER AND LEHIGH
COUNTIES. THE RESULTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED VIA PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENTS /PNS/ AND THE INFORMATION IS PRELIMINARY. MORE DETAILS
WILL BE ADDED ONCE THE SURVEY TEAM RETURNS TO THE OFFICE.

A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND AS OF 22Z IT IS NEAR
NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY THEN ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THEN TO
NORTHERN VIRGINIA. THE MAIN LIFT IS NORTH OF OUR AREA, HOWEVER WHERE
SOME DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS HAS HELPED TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS ACROSS
POTIONS OF MARYLAND. THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP AN ISOLATED SHOWER
MENTION FOR AWHILE LONGER MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS.
OTHERWISE, ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINTS BASED ON THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONS THEN BLENDED IN THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE.

WE ARE STILL EXPECTING THE FRONT TO SLOW AND EVENTUALLY STALL
OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA BY 12Z /WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
OF SOUTHERN DELAWARE/. BEHIND THE FRONT, DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL
OCCUR ALLOWING THE DEW POINTS TO LOWER. THIS, COMBINED WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUING TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION, WILL
RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
FRONT REMAINS STALLED TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THIS TIME AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SLOWLY BUILDS EAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
CHANCE OF GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN IN THE VICINITY AND JUST NORTH OF THE
FRONT WITH WEAK ON SHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND LOWER DELMARVA REGION. THE PRECIP FIELDS ON
THE GFS ARE MORE EXTENSIVE THEN THE MOST RECENT EC...BUT WE WILL
KEEP THE CHC POPS FOR THE SRN REGION ATTM. THE SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE
INTO FRI MORNING...WHICH WE WILL KEEP FOR NOW...BUT THE MODELS MAY
BE TRENDING A BIT FASTER WITH THE WAVE...SO IT`S POSSIBLE THAT THE
FRI MORNING SHOWERS MAY BE REMOVED IN UPCOMING FCSTS.

OVERALL...THE UPCOMING WEEKEND DOES NOT LOOK TOO BAD. THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS SAT AS AN
UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA. POPS WOULD ONLY BE IN THE CHC RANGE
AT BEST...A FEW MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING SOUTH. A MOSTLY DRY FCST
SUN INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...AT THIS WARMEST PART OF THE
YEAR. MAXS WILL BE MID 80S SOUTH/EAST TO LOW 80S NORTH/WEST.

THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK MAY HAVE A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH
THE FRONT RETURNING AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG IT. THE MODELS WILL PROBABLY CHANGE SEVERAL TIMES WITH THE
DETAILS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO WE WILL JUST USE THE WPC
POPS/TEMPS FOR TODAYS EXTENDED FCST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY
NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS TO DIMINISH. ANY SHOWER THIS
EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER ISOLATED. THE WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, THEN MOST TERMINALS
SHOULD HAVE A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND OVERNIGHT THEN TURN LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY TOWARD DAYBREAK. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FOG
TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK PRIMARILY AT KABE, KRDG, AND KACY.

THURSDAY...VFR OVERALL, HOWEVER SOME SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON COULD GET CLOSE TO KMIV AND KACY. NORTHEAST WINDS 5-10
KNOTS BECOMING LOCALLY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU MONDAY...OVERALL VFR MUCH OF THE TIME. SCT SHOWERS
AND A FEW TSTMS MAY BRING LOCALLY POORER VSBYS/CIGS. THE MOST
LIKELY TIMES FOR THIS ARE THU NIGHT AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE NOT GONE AS HIGH AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, THUS, HAVE
CANCELLED THE SCA ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS. WINDS MAY GUST NEAR 20 KT
AT TIMES THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY JUST BEHIND A COLD FRONT, THAT
SHOULD ARRIVE LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE WATERS THU NIGHT AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART. A FEW SCA GUSTS
POSSIBLE FRI/FRI NIGHT WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR NEW
JERSEY AND LOW FOR DELAWARE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RAINFALL FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE RANKED IN THE TOP 5 OF THE AVAILABLE
RELIABLE HISTORICAL DATABASE.

WILMINGTON #2 12.52. THE WETTEST WAS 13.66 IN 2013 AND THE TOP 4
WETTEST JUNES OCCURRED SINCE 2003. THE PERIOD OF RECORD (POR)
DATES BACK TO 1894.

ALLENTOWN #5 7.59 INCHES. THE WETTEST 10.51 IN 1938. POR TO 1922.
10.51 1938 THREE OF THE WETTEST JUNES OCCURRED SINCE 2003
9.13 2006
8.58 1972
8.30 2003
7.59 2015

ATLANTIC CITY #2 8.36 INCHES. THE WETTEST 8.45 INCHES 1920. POR
1874.

PHILADELPHIA #3 8.88 INCHES. THE WETTEST 10.56 2013, #2 IS 10.06
IN 1938. THREE OF 4 WETTEST JUNES OCCURRED SINCE 2003.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE IN OUR FORECAST AREA GENERALLY
AVERAGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GORSE/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GORSE/O`HARA
MARINE...JOHNSON/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 012242
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
642 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA EARLY TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ALONG IT TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE SURVEY TEAM HAS CONCLUDED THEIR WORK IN CHESTER AND LEHIGH
COUNTIES. THE RESULTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED VIA PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENTS /PNS/ AND THE INFORMATION IS PRELIMINARY. MORE DETAILS
WILL BE ADDED ONCE THE SURVEY TEAM RETURNS TO THE OFFICE.

A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND AS OF 22Z IT IS NEAR
NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY THEN ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THEN TO
NORTHERN VIRGINIA. THE MAIN LIFT IS NORTH OF OUR AREA, HOWEVER WHERE
SOME DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS HAS HELPED TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS ACROSS
POTIONS OF MARYLAND. THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP AN ISOLATED SHOWER
MENTION FOR AWHILE LONGER MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS.
OTHERWISE, ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINTS BASED ON THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONS THEN BLENDED IN THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE.

WE ARE STILL EXPECTING THE FRONT TO SLOW AND EVENTUALLY STALL
OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA BY 12Z /WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
OF SOUTHERN DELAWARE/. BEHIND THE FRONT, DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL
OCCUR ALLOWING THE DEW POINTS TO LOWER. THIS, COMBINED WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUING TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION, WILL
RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
FRONT REMAINS STALLED TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THIS TIME AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SLOWLY BUILDS EAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
CHANCE OF GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN IN THE VICINITY AND JUST NORTH OF THE
FRONT WITH WEAK ON SHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND LOWER DELMARVA REGION. THE PRECIP FIELDS ON
THE GFS ARE MORE EXTENSIVE THEN THE MOST RECENT EC...BUT WE WILL
KEEP THE CHC POPS FOR THE SRN REGION ATTM. THE SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE
INTO FRI MORNING...WHICH WE WILL KEEP FOR NOW...BUT THE MODELS MAY
BE TRENDING A BIT FASTER WITH THE WAVE...SO IT`S POSSIBLE THAT THE
FRI MORNING SHOWERS MAY BE REMOVED IN UPCOMING FCSTS.

OVERALL...THE UPCOMING WEEKEND DOES NOT LOOK TOO BAD. THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS SAT AS AN
UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA. POPS WOULD ONLY BE IN THE CHC RANGE
AT BEST...A FEW MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING SOUTH. A MOSTLY DRY FCST
SUN INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...AT THIS WARMEST PART OF THE
YEAR. MAXS WILL BE MID 80S SOUTH/EAST TO LOW 80S NORTH/WEST.

THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK MAY HAVE A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH
THE FRONT RETURNING AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG IT. THE MODELS WILL PROBABLY CHANGE SEVERAL TIMES WITH THE
DETAILS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO WE WILL JUST USE THE WPC
POPS/TEMPS FOR TODAYS EXTENDED FCST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY
NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS TO DIMINISH. ANY SHOWER THIS
EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER ISOLATED. THE WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, THEN MOST TERMINALS
SHOULD HAVE A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND OVERNIGHT THEN TURN LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY TOWARD DAYBREAK. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FOG
TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK PRIMARILY AT KABE, KRDG, AND KACY.

THURSDAY...VFR OVERALL, HOWEVER SOME SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON COULD GET CLOSE TO KMIV AND KACY. NORTHEAST WINDS 5-10
KNOTS BECOMING LOCALLY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU MONDAY...OVERALL VFR MUCH OF THE TIME. SCT SHOWERS
AND A FEW TSTMS MAY BRING LOCALLY POORER VSBYS/CIGS. THE MOST
LIKELY TIMES FOR THIS ARE THU NIGHT AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE NOT GONE AS HIGH AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, THUS, HAVE
CANCELLED THE SCA ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS. WINDS MAY GUST NEAR 20 KT
AT TIMES THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY JUST BEHIND A COLD FRONT, THAT
SHOULD ARRIVE LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE WATERS THU NIGHT AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART. A FEW SCA GUSTS
POSSIBLE FRI/FRI NIGHT WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR NEW
JERSEY AND LOW FOR DELAWARE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RAINFALL FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE RANKED IN THE TOP 5 OF THE AVAILABLE
RELIABLE HISTORICAL DATABASE.

WILMINGTON #2 12.52. THE WETTEST WAS 13.66 IN 2013 AND THE TOP 4
WETTEST JUNES OCCURRED SINCE 2003. THE PERIOD OF RECORD (POR)
DATES BACK TO 1894.

ALLENTOWN #5 7.59 INCHES. THE WETTEST 10.51 IN 1938. POR TO 1922.
10.51 1938 THREE OF THE WETTEST JUNES OCCURRED SINCE 2003
9.13 2006
8.58 1972
8.30 2003
7.59 2015

ATLANTIC CITY #2 8.36 INCHES. THE WETTEST 8.45 INCHES 1920. POR
1874.

PHILADELPHIA #3 8.88 INCHES. THE WETTEST 10.56 2013, #2 IS 10.06
IN 1938. THREE OF 4 WETTEST JUNES OCCURRED SINCE 2003.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE IN OUR FORECAST AREA GENERALLY
AVERAGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GORSE/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GORSE/O`HARA
MARINE...JOHNSON/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 012042
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
442 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBED PATTERN WILL KEEP SOME RAIN IN THE FORECAST...BUT THE
TREND IS TOWARD DRIER WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES.

CONTINUED MAINLY DRY THURSDAY AS BOUNDARY WELL SOUTH OF REGION
WILL ONLY SLOWLY BEGIN TO MOVE BACK NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
ATTEMPT TO REACH SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ON FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT WAVE TRAVERSING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
OUR SOUTH...WITH MOST MODELS BUYING INTO THIS THINKING. HAVE
SUPPRESSED POPS AS A RESULT BUT STILL HAVE CHANCE VALUES ACROSS
MOST AREAS. INSTABILITY LOOKS BETTER ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH
PERHAPS 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE TO WORK WITH AT MGW...AS OPPOSED TO
NEARLY ZERO AT FKL. HAVE REDUCED THUNDER CHANCES AS WELL AND HAVE
REMOVED IT NORTH OF I-80.

PRECIP COVERAGE WILL WANE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND
DEPARTURE OF THE SURFACE WAVE. ON SATURDAY...THERE IS NOT MUCH OF
A SYNOPTIC FEATURE TO PROVIDE LIFT FOR RAINFALL. HOWEVER...H500
HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING AND INSTABILITY LOOKS BETTER AREAWIDE. WILL
MAINTAIN DIURNAL CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN JUST A BIT BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  CL

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA WILL LINGER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. BY SUNDAY NIGHT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT
MAY FINALLY SHIFT OUT OF THE REGION...BRINGING A BRIEF DRY SPELL
TO ALL LOCATIONS. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
GFS/ECMWF HAVE VASTLY DIFFERENT TIMING FOR WHEN THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WOULD CROSS THE REGION...WITH THE ECMWF MUCH FASTER
WITH THE FRONT. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH TIMING SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF...PRIMARILY BECAUSE MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE IN
BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CREEP
UP A FEW DEGREES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH EXPANSIVE CU FIELD. ANOTHER
ROUND OF IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY WITH DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. THE ADDITION OF MID- TO HIGH-
CLOUDS MAY SUPPRESS SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY SOUTH. SURFACE
FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COULD PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 012042
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
442 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBED PATTERN WILL KEEP SOME RAIN IN THE FORECAST...BUT THE
TREND IS TOWARD DRIER WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES.

CONTINUED MAINLY DRY THURSDAY AS BOUNDARY WELL SOUTH OF REGION
WILL ONLY SLOWLY BEGIN TO MOVE BACK NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
ATTEMPT TO REACH SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ON FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT WAVE TRAVERSING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
OUR SOUTH...WITH MOST MODELS BUYING INTO THIS THINKING. HAVE
SUPPRESSED POPS AS A RESULT BUT STILL HAVE CHANCE VALUES ACROSS
MOST AREAS. INSTABILITY LOOKS BETTER ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH
PERHAPS 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE TO WORK WITH AT MGW...AS OPPOSED TO
NEARLY ZERO AT FKL. HAVE REDUCED THUNDER CHANCES AS WELL AND HAVE
REMOVED IT NORTH OF I-80.

PRECIP COVERAGE WILL WANE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND
DEPARTURE OF THE SURFACE WAVE. ON SATURDAY...THERE IS NOT MUCH OF
A SYNOPTIC FEATURE TO PROVIDE LIFT FOR RAINFALL. HOWEVER...H500
HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING AND INSTABILITY LOOKS BETTER AREAWIDE. WILL
MAINTAIN DIURNAL CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN JUST A BIT BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  CL

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA WILL LINGER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. BY SUNDAY NIGHT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT
MAY FINALLY SHIFT OUT OF THE REGION...BRINGING A BRIEF DRY SPELL
TO ALL LOCATIONS. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
GFS/ECMWF HAVE VASTLY DIFFERENT TIMING FOR WHEN THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WOULD CROSS THE REGION...WITH THE ECMWF MUCH FASTER
WITH THE FRONT. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH TIMING SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF...PRIMARILY BECAUSE MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE IN
BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CREEP
UP A FEW DEGREES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH EXPANSIVE CU FIELD. ANOTHER
ROUND OF IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY WITH DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. THE ADDITION OF MID- TO HIGH-
CLOUDS MAY SUPPRESS SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY SOUTH. SURFACE
FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COULD PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 012009
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
409 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL THEN STALL OVER THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BRINGING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAK SFC TROUGH FROM NEAR KBWI SW TO
KROA. SCT/BKN CU HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THIS REGION...WITH SKIES
GENLY MOSTLY SUNNY FARTHER S/E. SFC COLD FRONT LAGS BACK OVER SE
OHIO AND WV. AREAS OF SMOKE LIKELY FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES IS
MAKING FOR A HAZY SUN HOWEVER...AND THIS HAS LIKELY SHAVED A FEW
DEGREES OF TEMPERATURE THIS AFTN...GENLY RUNNING IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. NOT A LOT OF INSTABILITY THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING (DEW
PTS INTO LWR-MID 60S MOST AREAS) BUT WILL MAINTAIN 20% POPS OVER
THE PIEDMONT...KEEPING A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE THROUGH 23Z.

LATER THIS EVENING...AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES CLOSER INTO THE
REGION SOME INCREASE IN LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL OCCUR...THOUGH THE
12Z/01 NAM REMAINS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH RESPECT TO SHOWERS/TSTMS
ACCOMPANYING THE BOUNDARY THAN DOES THE LATEST GFS. THE DEEPER
MOISTURE AND STRONGER FORCING WILL REMAIN WELL N/W OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...SO WILL ONLY FORECAST A 20%-30% POP WITH THE
BOUNDARY. INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE REGION THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DEVELOP A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER ERN NC AS ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER UPPER WAVE LOCATES OVER THE MID MS
VALLEY. 20-40% POPS THURSDAY MORNING INCREASE TO 40-60% POPS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TO ~60-70% OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. PWATS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 2+ INCHES THURSDAY
NIGHT IN DEEP LAYER SW FLOW. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE IN CONCERT WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING ALONG THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT ISSUING ANY FLASH
FLOOD ADVISORIES AT THIS POINT...BUT THIS PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY DUE TO VERY MOIST ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. IF
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP VERIFIES BY LATER THU...LATER SHIFTS MAY
NEED TO CONSIDER A WATCH FOR CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT THU
THROUGH FRI AS THE BOUNDARY AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE REMAIN OVER
THE REGION.  ANOTHER ROUND OF LIKELY POPS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY. 72 HR RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH SAT AFTN AVERAGE
BETWEEN 1 TO 2"...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

FORECAST HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AREA GENERALLY ON THE LOW-SIDE
OF GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE ANY
PERIODS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGHS THURSDAY RANGE FROM AROUND 80 F NW...TO
THE UPPER 80S SE...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER
70S NW...TO THE MID 80S FAR SE. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S.

PATTERN A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN SAT AS THE FRONT PROGGED TO SAG A
BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND WEAKEN...BUT POPS STILL LOOK WELL ABOVE THE
TYPICAL CLIMO OF ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED LATE AFTN/EVENING
STORMS. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN 30-50% POPS ON SAT...WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPSTREAM BLOCKING PATTERN RESULTS IN LITTLE MOVEMENT OF OVERALL
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THRU THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A GENERAL BROAD TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG
THE EAST COAST KEEPING CONDITIONS RATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE AND EXTENDED.

WHILE MODELS AGREE ON THE OVERALL PATTERN THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
WITH THE TIMING OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC IS
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. THE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY WITH A TROF LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY. THUS LOOK FOR CHC POPS EACH DAY AS TIMING OF ANY ONE
DISTURBANCE RATHER PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT.
HIGHS SUN IN THE M-U80S...85-90 MON THROUGH WED. LOWS U60S-M70S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDS ACROSS THE REGION. SOME HZ/SMOKE ALOFT ON SATELLITE
APPEAR TO BE ORIGINATING FROM FAR NW CANADA. SFC WIND GENERALLY
FROM S/SW AROUND 10KT OR LESS. A WEAK TROF ACROSS THE REGION MAY
GENERATE SOME ISOLD CONVECTION LATE AFTN/EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO
THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THU AND BECOME STNRY. WAVES OF LOW PRES
ALONG THIS BNDRY WILL BRING A CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THU AND FRI AND
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY S TO SW AROUND 10 KT OR LESS. WINDS OVER THE MIDDLE BAY
AND COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE BECOME NW TO N BY THURSDAY
MORNING AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND STALLS NEAR HAMPTON ROADS.
WINDS BECOME VARIABLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND REMAIN S TO SW
SOUTH OF THE FRONT OVER THE NC WATERS. WAVES IN THE BAY AVG 1-2 FT
AND SEAS ON THE COASTAL WATERS AVG 2-4 FT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SUB-
SCA CONDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE STALLED FRONT WILL
ALSO RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY LASTING THROUGH
FRIDAY. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINS REDUCING VISIBILITY AND GUSTY WINDS
FROM STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE 2015 CLIMATE:

AT NORFOLK:
*AVG TEMPERATURE OF 78.7 F RANKS AS THE 7TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
*TOTAL PRECIPITATION OF 8.34" RANKS AS 5TH WETTEST ON RECORD.

AT RICHMOND:
*AVG TEMPERATURE OF 77.92 F RANKS AS THE 8TH WARMEST ON RECORD.

PRECIPITATION TOTAL OF 6.05" DID NOT ATTAIN A TOP 10 RANKING AT
RIC AIRPORT...BUT MANY LOCATIONS IN THE METRO AREA...RECEIVED IN
EXCESS OF 10.00 INCHES FOR THE MONTH.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...MAS/JEF
MARINE...JAO
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 012009
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
409 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL THEN STALL OVER THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BRINGING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAK SFC TROUGH FROM NEAR KBWI SW TO
KROA. SCT/BKN CU HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THIS REGION...WITH SKIES
GENLY MOSTLY SUNNY FARTHER S/E. SFC COLD FRONT LAGS BACK OVER SE
OHIO AND WV. AREAS OF SMOKE LIKELY FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES IS
MAKING FOR A HAZY SUN HOWEVER...AND THIS HAS LIKELY SHAVED A FEW
DEGREES OF TEMPERATURE THIS AFTN...GENLY RUNNING IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. NOT A LOT OF INSTABILITY THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING (DEW
PTS INTO LWR-MID 60S MOST AREAS) BUT WILL MAINTAIN 20% POPS OVER
THE PIEDMONT...KEEPING A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE THROUGH 23Z.

LATER THIS EVENING...AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES CLOSER INTO THE
REGION SOME INCREASE IN LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL OCCUR...THOUGH THE
12Z/01 NAM REMAINS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH RESPECT TO SHOWERS/TSTMS
ACCOMPANYING THE BOUNDARY THAN DOES THE LATEST GFS. THE DEEPER
MOISTURE AND STRONGER FORCING WILL REMAIN WELL N/W OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...SO WILL ONLY FORECAST A 20%-30% POP WITH THE
BOUNDARY. INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE REGION THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DEVELOP A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER ERN NC AS ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER UPPER WAVE LOCATES OVER THE MID MS
VALLEY. 20-40% POPS THURSDAY MORNING INCREASE TO 40-60% POPS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TO ~60-70% OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. PWATS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 2+ INCHES THURSDAY
NIGHT IN DEEP LAYER SW FLOW. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE IN CONCERT WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING ALONG THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT ISSUING ANY FLASH
FLOOD ADVISORIES AT THIS POINT...BUT THIS PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY DUE TO VERY MOIST ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. IF
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP VERIFIES BY LATER THU...LATER SHIFTS MAY
NEED TO CONSIDER A WATCH FOR CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT THU
THROUGH FRI AS THE BOUNDARY AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE REMAIN OVER
THE REGION.  ANOTHER ROUND OF LIKELY POPS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY. 72 HR RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH SAT AFTN AVERAGE
BETWEEN 1 TO 2"...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

FORECAST HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AREA GENERALLY ON THE LOW-SIDE
OF GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE ANY
PERIODS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGHS THURSDAY RANGE FROM AROUND 80 F NW...TO
THE UPPER 80S SE...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER
70S NW...TO THE MID 80S FAR SE. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S.

PATTERN A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN SAT AS THE FRONT PROGGED TO SAG A
BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND WEAKEN...BUT POPS STILL LOOK WELL ABOVE THE
TYPICAL CLIMO OF ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED LATE AFTN/EVENING
STORMS. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN 30-50% POPS ON SAT...WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPSTREAM BLOCKING PATTERN RESULTS IN LITTLE MOVEMENT OF OVERALL
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THRU THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A GENERAL BROAD TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG
THE EAST COAST KEEPING CONDITIONS RATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE AND EXTENDED.

WHILE MODELS AGREE ON THE OVERALL PATTERN THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
WITH THE TIMING OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC IS
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. THE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY WITH A TROF LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY. THUS LOOK FOR CHC POPS EACH DAY AS TIMING OF ANY ONE
DISTURBANCE RATHER PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT.
HIGHS SUN IN THE M-U80S...85-90 MON THROUGH WED. LOWS U60S-M70S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDS ACROSS THE REGION. SOME HZ/SMOKE ALOFT ON SATELLITE
APPEAR TO BE ORIGINATING FROM FAR NW CANADA. SFC WIND GENERALLY
FROM S/SW AROUND 10KT OR LESS. A WEAK TROF ACROSS THE REGION MAY
GENERATE SOME ISOLD CONVECTION LATE AFTN/EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO
THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THU AND BECOME STNRY. WAVES OF LOW PRES
ALONG THIS BNDRY WILL BRING A CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THU AND FRI AND
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY S TO SW AROUND 10 KT OR LESS. WINDS OVER THE MIDDLE BAY
AND COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE BECOME NW TO N BY THURSDAY
MORNING AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND STALLS NEAR HAMPTON ROADS.
WINDS BECOME VARIABLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND REMAIN S TO SW
SOUTH OF THE FRONT OVER THE NC WATERS. WAVES IN THE BAY AVG 1-2 FT
AND SEAS ON THE COASTAL WATERS AVG 2-4 FT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SUB-
SCA CONDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE STALLED FRONT WILL
ALSO RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY LASTING THROUGH
FRIDAY. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINS REDUCING VISIBILITY AND GUSTY WINDS
FROM STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE 2015 CLIMATE:

AT NORFOLK:
*AVG TEMPERATURE OF 78.7 F RANKS AS THE 7TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
*TOTAL PRECIPITATION OF 8.34" RANKS AS 5TH WETTEST ON RECORD.

AT RICHMOND:
*AVG TEMPERATURE OF 77.92 F RANKS AS THE 8TH WARMEST ON RECORD.

PRECIPITATION TOTAL OF 6.05" DID NOT ATTAIN A TOP 10 RANKING AT
RIC AIRPORT...BUT MANY LOCATIONS IN THE METRO AREA...RECEIVED IN
EXCESS OF 10.00 INCHES FOR THE MONTH.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...MAS/JEF
MARINE...JAO
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 012001
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
401 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL THEN STALL OVER THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BRINGING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAK SFC TROUGH FROM NEAR KBWI SW TO
KROA. SCT/BKN CU HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THIS REGION...WITH SKIES
GENLY MOSTLY SUNNY FARTHER S/E. SFC COLD FRONT LAGS BACK OVER SE
OHIO AND WV. AREAS OF SMOKE LIKELY FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES IS
MAKING FOR A HAZY SUN HOWEVER...AND THIS HAS LIKELY SHAVED A FEW
DEGREES OF TEMPERATURE THIS AFTN...GENLY RUNNING IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. NOT A LOT OF INSTABILITY THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING (DEW
PTS INTO LWR-MID 60S MOST AREAS) BUT WILL MAINTAIN 20% POPS OVER
THE PIEDMONT...KEEPING A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE THROUGH 23Z.

LATER THIS EVENING...AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES CLOSER INTO THE
REGION SOME INCREASE IN LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL OCCUR...THOUGH THE
12Z/01 NAM REMAINS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH RESPECT TO SHOWERS/TSTMS
ACCOMPANYING THE BOUNDARY THAN DOES THE LATEST GFS. THE DEEPER
MOISTURE AND STRONGER FORCING WILL REMAIN WELL N/W OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...SO WILL ONLY FORECAST A 20%-30% POP WITH THE
BOUNDARY. INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...


THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE REGION THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DEVELOP A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER ERN NC AS ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER UPPER WAVE LOCATES OVER THE MID MS
VALLEY. 20-30% POPS THURSDAY MORNING INCREASE TO 40-50% POPS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/ EVENING OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC...THEN TO ~60%
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. PWATS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO
2+ INCHES THURSDAY NIGHT IN DEEP LAYER SW FLOW. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE
IN CONCERT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING ALONG THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE BOUNDARY AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION FRIDAY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-MS VALLEY LOW APPROACHES FROM THE W.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIKELY POPS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY. DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL (UP TO 600% OF NORMAL THIS PAST
WEEK)...MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AND CONTINUES TO BE HEADLINED
IN THE HWO. 72 HR RAINFALL TOTALS AVERAGE BETWEEN 1.0-1.5
IN...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

FORECAST HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AREA GENERALLY ON THE LOW-SIDE
OF GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE ANY
PERIODS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGHS THURSDAY RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S
NW...TO THE UPPER 80S SE...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS FRIDAY RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 70S NW...TO THE MID 80S FAR SE. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPSTREAM BLOCKING PATTERN RESULTS IN LITTLE MOVEMENT OF OVERALL
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THRU THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A GENERAL BROAD TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG
THE EAST COAST KEEPING CONDITIONS RATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE AND EXTENDED.

WHILE MODELS AGREE ON THE OVERALL PATTERN THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
WITH THE TIMING OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC IS
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. THE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY WITH A TROF LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY. THUS LOOK FOR CHC POPS EACH DAY AS TIMING OF ANY ONE
DISTURBANCE RATHER PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT.
HIGHS SUN IN THE M-U80S...85-90 MON THROUGH WED. LOWS U60S-M70S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDS ACROSS THE REGION. SOME HZ/SMOKE ALOFT ON SATELLITE
APPEAR TO BE ORIGINATING FROM FAR NW CANADA. SFC WIND GENERALLY
FROM S/SW AROUND 10KT OR LESS. A WEAK TROF ACROSS THE REGION MAY
GENERATE SOME ISOLD CONVECTION LATE AFTN/EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO
THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THU AND BECOME STNRY. WAVES OF LOW PRES
ALONG THIS BNDRY WILL BRING A CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THU AND FRI AND
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY S TO SW AROUND 10 KT OR LESS. WINDS OVER THE MIDDLE BAY
AND COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE BECOME NW TO N BY THURSDAY
MORNING AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND STALLS NEAR HAMPTON ROADS.
WINDS BECOME VARIABLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND REMAIN S TO SW
SOUTH OF THE FRONT OVER THE NC WATERS. WAVES IN THE BAY AVG 1-2 FT
AND SEAS ON THE COASTAL WATERS AVG 2-4 FT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SUB-
SCA CONDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE STALLED FRONT WILL
ALSO RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY LASTING THROUGH
FRIDAY. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINS REDUCING VISIBILITY AND GUSTY WINDS
FROM STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE 2015 CLIMATE:

AT NORFOLK:
*AVG TEMPERATURE OF 78.7 F RANKS AS THE 7TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
*TOTAL PRECIPITATION OF 8.34" RANKS AS 5TH WETTEST ON RECORD.

AT RICHMOND:
*AVG TEMPERATURE OF 77.92 F RANKS AS THE 8TH WARMEST ON RECORD.

PRECIPITATION TOTAL OF 6.05" DID NOT ATTAIN A TOP 10 RANKING AT
RIC AIRPORT...BUT MANY LOCATIONS IN THE METRO AREA...RECEIVED IN
EXCESS OF 10.00 INCHES FOR THE MONTH.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...MAS/JEF
MARINE...JAO
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 011939
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
339 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT...ATTACHED TO LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA...WILL
CROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
AREA TONIGHT WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG IT TO
THE SOUTH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL CROSS TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL PA AND CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE
EAST. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AT LEAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE FRONT HAS BEEN DECREASING, SO CONTINUE TO EXPECT
ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT ARRIVES IN OUR
REGION. STILL EXPECTING THE FRONT TO SLOW AND EVENTUALLY STALL
OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT
THROUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA BY 12Z (WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF SOUTHERN DELAWARE). WILL SEE DRY AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT. THAT, COMBINED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUING TO
LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION WILL MEAN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR
REGION, EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT WHERE LIGHT ON SHORE
FLOW COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT PRECIP EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
FRONT REMAINS STALLED TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THIS TIME AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SLOWLY BUILDS EAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
CHANCE OF GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN IN THE VICINITY AND JUST NORTH OF THE
FRONT WITH WEAK ON SHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND LOWER DELMARVA REGION. THE PRECIP FIELDS ON
THE GFS ARE MORE EXTENSIVE THEN THE MOST RECENT EC...BUT WE WILL
KEEP THE CHC POPS FOR THE SRN REGION ATTM. THE SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE
INTO FRI MORNING...WHICH WE WILL KEEP FOR NOW...BUT THE MODELS MAY
BE TRENDING A BIT FASTER WITH THE WAVE...SO IT`S POSSIBLE THAT THE
FRI MORNING SHOWERS MAY BE REMOVED IN UPCOMING FCSTS.

OVERALL...THE UPCOMING WEEKEND DOES NOT LOOK TOO BAD. THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS SAT AS AN
UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA. POPS WOULD ONLY BE IN THE CHC RANGE
AT BEST...A FEW MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING SOUTH. A MOSTLY DRY FCST
SUN INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...AT THIS WARMEST PART OF THE
YEAR. MAXS WILL BE MID 80S SOUTH/EAST TO LOW 80S NORTH/WEST.

THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK MAY HAVE A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH
THE FRONT RETURNING AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG IT. THE MODELS WILL PROBABLY CHANGE SEVERAL TIMES WITH THE
DETAILS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO WE WILL JUST USE THE WPC
POPS/TEMPS FOR TODAYS EXTENDED FCST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY
NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER,
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT WITH WEST
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 22 AND 02Z FOR THE TAF SITES.

AFTER 06Z, EXPECT WINDS TO GO LIGHT AND VRB. AS THIS HAPPENS, THERE
IS A SMALL RISK FOR FOG TO DEVELOP, PRIMARILY FOR KABE, KRDG, AND
KACY. BY DAYBREAK, WINDS SHOULD SETTLE IN TO NORTHEASTERLY.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU MONDAY...OVERALL VFR MUCH OF THE TIME. SCT SHOWERS
AND A FEW TSTMS MAY BRING LOCALLY POORER VSBYS/CIGS. THE MOST
LIKELY TIMES FOR THIS ARE THU NIGHT AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE NOT GONE AS HIGH AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, THUS, HAVE
CANCELLED THE SCA ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS. WINDS MAY GUST NEAR 20 KT
AT TIMES THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY JUST BEHIND A COLD FRONT, THAT
SHOULD ARRIVE LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE WATERS THU NIGHT AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART. A FEW SCA GUSTS
POSSIBLE FRI/FRI NIGHT WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR NEW
JERSEY AND LOW FOR DELAWARE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RAINFALL FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE RANKED IN THE TOP 5 OF THE AVAILABLE
RELIABLE HISTORICAL DATABASE.

WILMINGTON #2 12.52. THE WETTEST WAS 13.66 IN 2013 AND THE TOP 4
WETTEST JUNES OCCURRED SINCE 2003. THE PERIOD OF RECORD (POR)
DATES BACK TO 1894.

ALLENTOWN #5 7.59 INCHES. THE WETTEST 10.51 IN 1938. POR TO 1922.
10.51 1938 THREE OF THE WETTEST JUNES OCCURRED SINCE 2003
9.13 2006
8.58 1972
8.30 2003
7.59 2015

ATLANTIC CITY #2 8.36 INCHES. THE WETTEST 8.45 INCHES 1920. POR
1874.

PHILADELPHIA #3 8.88 INCHES. THE WETTEST 10.56 2013, #2 IS 10.06
IN 1938. THREE OF 4 WETTEST JUNES OCCURRED SINCE 2003.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE IN OUR FORECAST AREA GENERALLY
AVERAGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...JOHNSON/O`HARA
MARINE...JOHNSON/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 011939
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
339 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT...ATTACHED TO LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA...WILL
CROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
AREA TONIGHT WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG IT TO
THE SOUTH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL CROSS TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL PA AND CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE
EAST. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AT LEAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE FRONT HAS BEEN DECREASING, SO CONTINUE TO EXPECT
ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT ARRIVES IN OUR
REGION. STILL EXPECTING THE FRONT TO SLOW AND EVENTUALLY STALL
OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT
THROUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA BY 12Z (WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF SOUTHERN DELAWARE). WILL SEE DRY AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT. THAT, COMBINED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUING TO
LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION WILL MEAN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR
REGION, EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT WHERE LIGHT ON SHORE
FLOW COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT PRECIP EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
FRONT REMAINS STALLED TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THIS TIME AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SLOWLY BUILDS EAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
CHANCE OF GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN IN THE VICINITY AND JUST NORTH OF THE
FRONT WITH WEAK ON SHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND LOWER DELMARVA REGION. THE PRECIP FIELDS ON
THE GFS ARE MORE EXTENSIVE THEN THE MOST RECENT EC...BUT WE WILL
KEEP THE CHC POPS FOR THE SRN REGION ATTM. THE SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE
INTO FRI MORNING...WHICH WE WILL KEEP FOR NOW...BUT THE MODELS MAY
BE TRENDING A BIT FASTER WITH THE WAVE...SO IT`S POSSIBLE THAT THE
FRI MORNING SHOWERS MAY BE REMOVED IN UPCOMING FCSTS.

OVERALL...THE UPCOMING WEEKEND DOES NOT LOOK TOO BAD. THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS SAT AS AN
UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA. POPS WOULD ONLY BE IN THE CHC RANGE
AT BEST...A FEW MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING SOUTH. A MOSTLY DRY FCST
SUN INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...AT THIS WARMEST PART OF THE
YEAR. MAXS WILL BE MID 80S SOUTH/EAST TO LOW 80S NORTH/WEST.

THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK MAY HAVE A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH
THE FRONT RETURNING AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG IT. THE MODELS WILL PROBABLY CHANGE SEVERAL TIMES WITH THE
DETAILS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO WE WILL JUST USE THE WPC
POPS/TEMPS FOR TODAYS EXTENDED FCST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY
NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER,
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT WITH WEST
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 22 AND 02Z FOR THE TAF SITES.

AFTER 06Z, EXPECT WINDS TO GO LIGHT AND VRB. AS THIS HAPPENS, THERE
IS A SMALL RISK FOR FOG TO DEVELOP, PRIMARILY FOR KABE, KRDG, AND
KACY. BY DAYBREAK, WINDS SHOULD SETTLE IN TO NORTHEASTERLY.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU MONDAY...OVERALL VFR MUCH OF THE TIME. SCT SHOWERS
AND A FEW TSTMS MAY BRING LOCALLY POORER VSBYS/CIGS. THE MOST
LIKELY TIMES FOR THIS ARE THU NIGHT AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE NOT GONE AS HIGH AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, THUS, HAVE
CANCELLED THE SCA ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS. WINDS MAY GUST NEAR 20 KT
AT TIMES THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY JUST BEHIND A COLD FRONT, THAT
SHOULD ARRIVE LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE WATERS THU NIGHT AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART. A FEW SCA GUSTS
POSSIBLE FRI/FRI NIGHT WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR NEW
JERSEY AND LOW FOR DELAWARE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RAINFALL FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE RANKED IN THE TOP 5 OF THE AVAILABLE
RELIABLE HISTORICAL DATABASE.

WILMINGTON #2 12.52. THE WETTEST WAS 13.66 IN 2013 AND THE TOP 4
WETTEST JUNES OCCURRED SINCE 2003. THE PERIOD OF RECORD (POR)
DATES BACK TO 1894.

ALLENTOWN #5 7.59 INCHES. THE WETTEST 10.51 IN 1938. POR TO 1922.
10.51 1938 THREE OF THE WETTEST JUNES OCCURRED SINCE 2003
9.13 2006
8.58 1972
8.30 2003
7.59 2015

ATLANTIC CITY #2 8.36 INCHES. THE WETTEST 8.45 INCHES 1920. POR
1874.

PHILADELPHIA #3 8.88 INCHES. THE WETTEST 10.56 2013, #2 IS 10.06
IN 1938. THREE OF 4 WETTEST JUNES OCCURRED SINCE 2003.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE IN OUR FORECAST AREA GENERALLY
AVERAGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...JOHNSON/O`HARA
MARINE...JOHNSON/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011927
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
327 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBED PATTERN WILL KEEP SOME RAIN IN THE FORECAST...BUT THE
TREND IS TOWARD DRIER WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE AS DRY AND STABLE
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. DETERIORATION OF MORNING STRATUS HAD
BEEN SLOW...KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN CHECK...BUT STRATUS HAS MIXED
OUT INTO A CU FIELD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY JUMP UP THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT HIGH MARKS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE. OVERALL...A
PLEASANT EVENING IS EXPECTED.

THINK THAT THE AREA WILL CLEAR OUT EFFECTIVELY THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME PATCHY
FOG INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE ARRIVES
IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THURSDAY WITH MID- AND HIGH-CLOUDS THAT
COULD DISRUPT RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT BUT...TRAJECTORY AND
RESULTANT CLOUD COVER IS STILL IN QUESTION. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH TONIGHT.

ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THURSDAYS FORECAST...TRIMMING POPS BACK
TO THE SOUTH RESULTING IN A DRIER FORECAST THAN PREVIOUS. THIS
SHOULD COME AS A WELCOME SIGHT AFTER DAYS OF CONSTANT RAIN THREAT.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...AND THE MODELS SEEM CONTENT TO KEEP MOST OF THE
MOISTURE SUPPRESSED WITH IT. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR LINGERING UNCERTAINTY.

THIS MORE SOUTHERLY TREND CONTINUES ON FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT WAVE
TRAVERSING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH...WITH MOST MODELS
BUYING INTO THIS THINKING. HAVE SUPPRESSED POPS AS A RESULT BUT
STILL HAVE CHANCE VALUES ACROSS MOST AREAS. INSTABILITY LOOKS
BETTER ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH PERHAPS 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE TO WORK
WITH AT MGW...AS OPPOSED TO NEARLY ZERO AT FKL.  HAVE REDUCED
THUNDER CHANCES AS WELL AND HAVE REMOVED IT NORTH OF I-80.

PRECIP COVERAGE WILL WANE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND
DEPARTURE OF THE SURFACE WAVE. ON SATURDAY...THERE IS NOT MUCH OF
A SYNOPTIC FEATURE TO PROVIDE LIFT FOR RAINFALL. HOWEVER...H500
HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING AND INSTABILITY LOOKS BETTER AREAWIDE. WILL
MAINTAIN DIURNAL CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN JUST A BIT BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  CL

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA WILL LINGER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. BY SUNDAY NIGHT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT
MAY FINALLY SHIFT OUT OF THE REGION...BRINGING A BRIEF DRY SPELL
TO ALL LOCATIONS. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
GFS/ECMWF HAVE VASTLY DIFFERENT TIMING FOR WHEN THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WOULD CROSS THE REGION...WITH THE ECMWF MUCH FASTER
WITH THE FRONT. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH TIMING SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF...PRIMARILY BECAUSE MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE IN
BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CREEP
UP A FEW DEGREES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH EXPANSIVE CU FIELD. ANOTHER
ROUND OF IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY WITH DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. THE ADDITION OF MID- TO HIGH-
CLOUDS MAY SUPPRESS SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY SOUTH. SURFACE
FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COULD PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011927
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
327 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBED PATTERN WILL KEEP SOME RAIN IN THE FORECAST...BUT THE
TREND IS TOWARD DRIER WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE AS DRY AND STABLE
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. DETERIORATION OF MORNING STRATUS HAD
BEEN SLOW...KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN CHECK...BUT STRATUS HAS MIXED
OUT INTO A CU FIELD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY JUMP UP THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT HIGH MARKS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE. OVERALL...A
PLEASANT EVENING IS EXPECTED.

THINK THAT THE AREA WILL CLEAR OUT EFFECTIVELY THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME PATCHY
FOG INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE ARRIVES
IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THURSDAY WITH MID- AND HIGH-CLOUDS THAT
COULD DISRUPT RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT BUT...TRAJECTORY AND
RESULTANT CLOUD COVER IS STILL IN QUESTION. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH TONIGHT.

ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THURSDAYS FORECAST...TRIMMING POPS BACK
TO THE SOUTH RESULTING IN A DRIER FORECAST THAN PREVIOUS. THIS
SHOULD COME AS A WELCOME SIGHT AFTER DAYS OF CONSTANT RAIN THREAT.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...AND THE MODELS SEEM CONTENT TO KEEP MOST OF THE
MOISTURE SUPPRESSED WITH IT. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR LINGERING UNCERTAINTY.

THIS MORE SOUTHERLY TREND CONTINUES ON FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT WAVE
TRAVERSING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH...WITH MOST MODELS
BUYING INTO THIS THINKING. HAVE SUPPRESSED POPS AS A RESULT BUT
STILL HAVE CHANCE VALUES ACROSS MOST AREAS. INSTABILITY LOOKS
BETTER ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH PERHAPS 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE TO WORK
WITH AT MGW...AS OPPOSED TO NEARLY ZERO AT FKL.  HAVE REDUCED
THUNDER CHANCES AS WELL AND HAVE REMOVED IT NORTH OF I-80.

PRECIP COVERAGE WILL WANE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND
DEPARTURE OF THE SURFACE WAVE. ON SATURDAY...THERE IS NOT MUCH OF
A SYNOPTIC FEATURE TO PROVIDE LIFT FOR RAINFALL. HOWEVER...H500
HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING AND INSTABILITY LOOKS BETTER AREAWIDE. WILL
MAINTAIN DIURNAL CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN JUST A BIT BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  CL

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA WILL LINGER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. BY SUNDAY NIGHT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT
MAY FINALLY SHIFT OUT OF THE REGION...BRINGING A BRIEF DRY SPELL
TO ALL LOCATIONS. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
GFS/ECMWF HAVE VASTLY DIFFERENT TIMING FOR WHEN THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WOULD CROSS THE REGION...WITH THE ECMWF MUCH FASTER
WITH THE FRONT. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH TIMING SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF...PRIMARILY BECAUSE MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE IN
BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CREEP
UP A FEW DEGREES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH EXPANSIVE CU FIELD. ANOTHER
ROUND OF IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY WITH DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. THE ADDITION OF MID- TO HIGH-
CLOUDS MAY SUPPRESS SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY SOUTH. SURFACE
FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COULD PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KLWX 011905
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
305 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY. THE FRONT WILL
STALL OUT IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL LINGER OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING EAST ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE
IN PLACE ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE METRO
AREAS AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. THE NAM-WRF CONTINUES TO HINT AT DEVELOPMENT WHILE
THE GFS NOT SO MUCH. ONE LIMITING FACTOR IS DRIER AIR PUNCHING IN
ALOFT. ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE QUICK HITTING AND BELOW
SEVERE CRITERIA. KEPT POPS AT OR BELOW 30 PERCENT GIVEN LIMITING
FACTORS IN PLACE.

ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL END AFTER SUNSET. SOME PATCHY FOG
COULD DEVELOP IN SPOTS OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP BACK TO THE 60S
IN MANY LOCATIONS...70S IN THE METRO AREAS.

COLD FRONT MAY STALL TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN LOCALES DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER
70S WEST TO LOW-MID 80S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH REGARDS TO WX LATE THU THROUGH SAT
MORNING...AS SUBTLE TO CONSIDERABLE (DEPENDING ON WHICH GUIDANCE YOU
CHOOSE) DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS TO TRACK AND
TIMING OF LP SYSTEMS TRACKING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MADE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST...WITH CHCS FOR OVERNIGHT
SHOWERS LATE THU AND TSTM CHCS FRI AFTN THROUGH THE EVENING.
INSTABILITY/SHEAR PROFILES RATHER ANEMIC...AND H5 WINDS AOB 20
KTS...SUGGEST ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WOULD BE DISORGANIZED. TEMPS
APPEAR TO REMAIN REASONABLE WITH M/U 70S THROUGHOUT MUCH OF CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES CROSSING REGION OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING MONDAY. ON TUESDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WHILE A SHORTWAVE ON THE NORTHERN TRACK
PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION. WEAK TO MODERATE PVA WILL AFFECT THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. SERIES OF WAVES WILL TRACK ALONG QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT LAYING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING.
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM KBWI-KDCA AND POINTS
SOUTH AND EAST ALTHOUGH TO UNCERTAIN TO ADD TO THE TAF. PATCHY FOG
IN SPOTS OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS ON THURSDAY. HAVE ADDED VCTS TO A FEW OF THE TAFS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS LATE THU THROUGH FRI REMAIN CHCS FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS...WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...ATTM IT
IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT SPATIOTEMPORAL EXTENT OF THIS
ACTIVITY. VFR CONDS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY.

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THE REMAINDER OF TODAY INTO THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST/NORTHWEST DURING THIS TIME BUT
GUSTS WILL BE CAPPED IN THE 10-15KT RANGE. A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE WATERS BUT LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
CRITERIA.

MAIN MARINE CONCERNS LATE THU THROUGH FRI WOULD BE WITH ANY TSTM
ACTIVITY...AS WINDS APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA IN THE
LIGHT (AOB 10 KTS) AND VARIABLE FLOW.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT THE WATERS OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...CEM/MSE/KRW
MARINE...CEM/MSE/KRW




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011822
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
222 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBED PATTERN WILL KEEP SOME RAIN IN THE FORECAST...BUT THE
TREND IS TOWARD DRIER WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE AS DRY AND STABLE
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. DETERIORATION OF MORNING STRATUS HAD
BEEN SLOW...KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN CHECK...BUT STRATUS HAS MIXED
OUT INTO A CU FIELD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY JUMP UP THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT HIGH MARKS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE. OVERALL...A
PLEASANT EVENING IS EXPECTED.

THINK THAT THE AREA WILL CLEAR OUT EFFECTIVELY THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME PATCHY
FOG INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE ARRIVES
IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THURSDAY WITH MID- AND HIGH-CLOUDS THAT
COULD DISRUPT RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT BUT...TRAJECTORY AND
RESULTANT CLOUD COVER IS STILL IN QUESTION. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH TONIGHT.

ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THURSDAYS FORECAST...TRIMMING POPS BACK
TO THE SOUTH RESULTING IN A DRIER FORECAST THAN PREVIOUS. THIS
SHOULD COME AS A WELCOME SIGHT AFTER DAYS OF CONSTANT RAIN THREAT.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE A SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT PLOUGHS
SUFFICIENTLY SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO INITIATE SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE I 70
CORRIDOR...WITH PRECIP PROBABILITIES INCREASING NORTHWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A TRAILING DISTURBANCE AMPLIFIES THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE REGION.

THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WAS THUS RADICALLY CHANGED AND NOW
INCLUDES LIKELY POPS FOR AREAS FROM PIT SOUTHWARD...ALL BASED ON
A BLEND OF SREF...AND THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC TREND OF GFS AND
NAM.

TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST JUST UNDER THE SEASONAL AVERAGES GIVEN
THE PERSISTENT TROUGHING ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA WILL LINGER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. BY SUNDAY NIGHT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT
MAY FINALLY SHIFT OUT OF THE REGION...BRINGING A BRIEF DRY SPELL
TO ALL LOCATIONS. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
GFS/ECMWF HAVE VASTLY DIFFERENT TIMING FOR WHEN THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WOULD CROSS THE REGION...WITH THE ECMWF MUCH FASTER
WITH THE FRONT. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH TIMING SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF...PRIMARILY BECAUSE MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE IN
BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CREEP
UP A FEW DEGREES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH EXPANSIVE CU FIELD. ANOTHER
ROUND OF IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY WITH DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. THE ADDITION OF MID- TO HIGH-
CLOUDS MAY SUPPRESS SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY SOUTH. SURFACE
FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COULD PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011822
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
222 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBED PATTERN WILL KEEP SOME RAIN IN THE FORECAST...BUT THE
TREND IS TOWARD DRIER WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE AS DRY AND STABLE
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. DETERIORATION OF MORNING STRATUS HAD
BEEN SLOW...KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN CHECK...BUT STRATUS HAS MIXED
OUT INTO A CU FIELD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY JUMP UP THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT HIGH MARKS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE. OVERALL...A
PLEASANT EVENING IS EXPECTED.

THINK THAT THE AREA WILL CLEAR OUT EFFECTIVELY THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME PATCHY
FOG INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE ARRIVES
IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THURSDAY WITH MID- AND HIGH-CLOUDS THAT
COULD DISRUPT RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT BUT...TRAJECTORY AND
RESULTANT CLOUD COVER IS STILL IN QUESTION. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH TONIGHT.

ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THURSDAYS FORECAST...TRIMMING POPS BACK
TO THE SOUTH RESULTING IN A DRIER FORECAST THAN PREVIOUS. THIS
SHOULD COME AS A WELCOME SIGHT AFTER DAYS OF CONSTANT RAIN THREAT.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE A SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT PLOUGHS
SUFFICIENTLY SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO INITIATE SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE I 70
CORRIDOR...WITH PRECIP PROBABILITIES INCREASING NORTHWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A TRAILING DISTURBANCE AMPLIFIES THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE REGION.

THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WAS THUS RADICALLY CHANGED AND NOW
INCLUDES LIKELY POPS FOR AREAS FROM PIT SOUTHWARD...ALL BASED ON
A BLEND OF SREF...AND THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC TREND OF GFS AND
NAM.

TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST JUST UNDER THE SEASONAL AVERAGES GIVEN
THE PERSISTENT TROUGHING ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA WILL LINGER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. BY SUNDAY NIGHT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT
MAY FINALLY SHIFT OUT OF THE REGION...BRINGING A BRIEF DRY SPELL
TO ALL LOCATIONS. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
GFS/ECMWF HAVE VASTLY DIFFERENT TIMING FOR WHEN THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WOULD CROSS THE REGION...WITH THE ECMWF MUCH FASTER
WITH THE FRONT. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH TIMING SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF...PRIMARILY BECAUSE MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE IN
BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CREEP
UP A FEW DEGREES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH EXPANSIVE CU FIELD. ANOTHER
ROUND OF IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY WITH DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. THE ADDITION OF MID- TO HIGH-
CLOUDS MAY SUPPRESS SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY SOUTH. SURFACE
FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COULD PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011822
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
222 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBED PATTERN WILL KEEP SOME RAIN IN THE FORECAST...BUT THE
TREND IS TOWARD DRIER WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE AS DRY AND STABLE
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. DETERIORATION OF MORNING STRATUS HAD
BEEN SLOW...KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN CHECK...BUT STRATUS HAS MIXED
OUT INTO A CU FIELD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY JUMP UP THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT HIGH MARKS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE. OVERALL...A
PLEASANT EVENING IS EXPECTED.

THINK THAT THE AREA WILL CLEAR OUT EFFECTIVELY THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME PATCHY
FOG INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE ARRIVES
IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THURSDAY WITH MID- AND HIGH-CLOUDS THAT
COULD DISRUPT RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT BUT...TRAJECTORY AND
RESULTANT CLOUD COVER IS STILL IN QUESTION. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH TONIGHT.

ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THURSDAYS FORECAST...TRIMMING POPS BACK
TO THE SOUTH RESULTING IN A DRIER FORECAST THAN PREVIOUS. THIS
SHOULD COME AS A WELCOME SIGHT AFTER DAYS OF CONSTANT RAIN THREAT.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE A SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT PLOUGHS
SUFFICIENTLY SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO INITIATE SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE I 70
CORRIDOR...WITH PRECIP PROBABILITIES INCREASING NORTHWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A TRAILING DISTURBANCE AMPLIFIES THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE REGION.

THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WAS THUS RADICALLY CHANGED AND NOW
INCLUDES LIKELY POPS FOR AREAS FROM PIT SOUTHWARD...ALL BASED ON
A BLEND OF SREF...AND THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC TREND OF GFS AND
NAM.

TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST JUST UNDER THE SEASONAL AVERAGES GIVEN
THE PERSISTENT TROUGHING ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA WILL LINGER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. BY SUNDAY NIGHT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT
MAY FINALLY SHIFT OUT OF THE REGION...BRINGING A BRIEF DRY SPELL
TO ALL LOCATIONS. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
GFS/ECMWF HAVE VASTLY DIFFERENT TIMING FOR WHEN THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WOULD CROSS THE REGION...WITH THE ECMWF MUCH FASTER
WITH THE FRONT. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH TIMING SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF...PRIMARILY BECAUSE MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE IN
BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CREEP
UP A FEW DEGREES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH EXPANSIVE CU FIELD. ANOTHER
ROUND OF IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY WITH DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. THE ADDITION OF MID- TO HIGH-
CLOUDS MAY SUPPRESS SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY SOUTH. SURFACE
FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COULD PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011822
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
222 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBED PATTERN WILL KEEP SOME RAIN IN THE FORECAST...BUT THE
TREND IS TOWARD DRIER WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE AS DRY AND STABLE
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. DETERIORATION OF MORNING STRATUS HAD
BEEN SLOW...KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN CHECK...BUT STRATUS HAS MIXED
OUT INTO A CU FIELD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY JUMP UP THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT HIGH MARKS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE. OVERALL...A
PLEASANT EVENING IS EXPECTED.

THINK THAT THE AREA WILL CLEAR OUT EFFECTIVELY THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME PATCHY
FOG INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE ARRIVES
IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THURSDAY WITH MID- AND HIGH-CLOUDS THAT
COULD DISRUPT RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT BUT...TRAJECTORY AND
RESULTANT CLOUD COVER IS STILL IN QUESTION. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH TONIGHT.

ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THURSDAYS FORECAST...TRIMMING POPS BACK
TO THE SOUTH RESULTING IN A DRIER FORECAST THAN PREVIOUS. THIS
SHOULD COME AS A WELCOME SIGHT AFTER DAYS OF CONSTANT RAIN THREAT.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE A SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT PLOUGHS
SUFFICIENTLY SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO INITIATE SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE I 70
CORRIDOR...WITH PRECIP PROBABILITIES INCREASING NORTHWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A TRAILING DISTURBANCE AMPLIFIES THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE REGION.

THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WAS THUS RADICALLY CHANGED AND NOW
INCLUDES LIKELY POPS FOR AREAS FROM PIT SOUTHWARD...ALL BASED ON
A BLEND OF SREF...AND THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC TREND OF GFS AND
NAM.

TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST JUST UNDER THE SEASONAL AVERAGES GIVEN
THE PERSISTENT TROUGHING ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA WILL LINGER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. BY SUNDAY NIGHT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT
MAY FINALLY SHIFT OUT OF THE REGION...BRINGING A BRIEF DRY SPELL
TO ALL LOCATIONS. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
GFS/ECMWF HAVE VASTLY DIFFERENT TIMING FOR WHEN THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WOULD CROSS THE REGION...WITH THE ECMWF MUCH FASTER
WITH THE FRONT. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH TIMING SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF...PRIMARILY BECAUSE MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE IN
BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CREEP
UP A FEW DEGREES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH EXPANSIVE CU FIELD. ANOTHER
ROUND OF IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY WITH DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. THE ADDITION OF MID- TO HIGH-
CLOUDS MAY SUPPRESS SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY SOUTH. SURFACE
FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COULD PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011742
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
142 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
DROPS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT THEN BECOMES STATIONARY
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG
THE FRONT LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY SHOWS EARLIER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING
WELL OFF TO THE NE OF THE LOCAL AREA AS OF 16Z...LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF CU DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR. THERE IS SOME HAZE PERSISTING OVER
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE FA HOWEVER. WHILE WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO THE AFTN AND WILL KEEP THE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FAIRLY STABLE...THERE IS THE PRESENCE OF A
WEAK SFC TROUGH TO THE LEE OF THE MTNS. THUS...WILL CARRY 20% POPS
LATE (AFTER 20Z) OVER THE PIEDMONT...KEEPING A DRY FORECAST
ELSEWHERE THROUGH 22Z. 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 16-17C SHOULD SUPPORT
SEASONABLY WARM HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 F (WITH A FEW OF
THE TYPICALLY HOTTEST SPOTS POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 90S). WESTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW IS BRINGING A MODEST REPRIEVE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS
(DEW PTS INTO THE LWR- MID 60S).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. OVERALL...THE 00Z/01
NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH RESPECT TO SHOWERS/TSTMS ACCOMPANYING
THE BOUNDARY...WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE EITHER DRY OR INDICATE ONLY
ISO ACTIVITY. THERE IS SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER FORCING WILL
REMAIN WELL W OF THE REGION...SO WILL ONLY FORECAST A 20% POP WITH
THE BOUNDARY. INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE REGION THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DEVELOP A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER ERN NC AS ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER UPPER WAVE LOCATES OVER THE MID MS
VALLEY. 20-30% POPS THURSDAY MORNING INCREASE TO 40-50% POPS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/ EVENING OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC...THEN TO ~60%
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. PWATS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO
2+ INCHES THURSDAY NIGHT IN DEEP LAYER SW FLOW. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE
IN CONCERT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING ALONG THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE BOUNDARY AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION FRIDAY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-MS VALLEY LOW APPROACHES FROM THE W.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIKELY POPS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY. DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL (UP TO 600% OF NORMAL THIS PAST
WEEK)...MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AND CONTINUES TO BE HEADLINED
IN THE HWO. 72 HR RAINFALL TOTALS AVERAGE BETWEEN 1.0-1.5
IN...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

FORECAST HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AREA GENERALLY ON THE LOW-SIDE
OF GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE ANY
PERIODS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGHS THURSDAY RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S
NW...TO THE UPPER 80S SE...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS FRIDAY RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 70S NW...TO THE MID 80S FAR SE. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPSTREAM BLOCKING PATTERN RESULTS IN LITTLE MOVEMENT OF OVERALL
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THRU THE HOLIDAY WKEND / MED RANGE PERIOD.

MODELS STALL WAVY FRONTAL BNDRY ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC REGION SAT.
GFS WANTS TO PUSH THIS BNDRY INTO NORTH CAROLINA SUN AS WEAK HIGH
PRS BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WHILE ECMWF KEEPS THE
BNDRY NEARLY STNRY ACROSS THE RGN. THE BNDRY PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRNT MONDAY WITH A TROF LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
THUS LOOK FOR CHC POPS EACH DAY AS TIMING OF ANY ONE DISTURBANCE
RATHER PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT.

HIGHS SAT / SUN IN THE M-U80S...85-90 MON / TUE. LOWS U60S-M70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDS ACROSS THE REGION. SOME HZ/SMOKE ALOFT ON SATELLITE
APPEAR TO BE ORIGINATING FROM FAR NW CANADA. SFC WIND GENERALLY
FROM S/SW AROUND 10KT OR LESS. A WEAK TROF ACROSS THE REGION MAY
GENERATE SOME ISOLD CONVECTION LATE AFTN/EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO
THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THU AND BECOME STNRY. WAVES OF LOW PRES
ALONG THIS BNDRY WILL BRING A CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THU AND FRI AND
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDS.


&&

.MARINE...
SCA OVER THE BAY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THRU 7 AM AS WINDS THERE CONTINUE
TO GUST TO ~20-25 KT ERLY THIS MORNG. WINDS WILL THEN RELAX THRU THE
DAY AS A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FM THE NW. EXPECT 10-15 KT S WINDS
THIS AFTN WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVER THE BAY AND 2-4 FT SEAS OVER CSTL
WTRS. THE FRNT DROPS INTO THE AREA FM THE NW ON THU...WITH WINDS
BCMG LIGHT AND VRB AS THE FRNT STALLS AND REMAINS IN THE VICINITY
THRU FRI. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT AND SEAS AVG 2-4 FT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
SUB-SCA CONDS CONTINUING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AT NORFOLK:
*AVG TEMPERATURE OF 78.7 F RANKS AS THE 7TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
*TOTAL PRECIPITATION OF 8.34" RANKS AS 5TH WETTEST ON RECORD.

AT RICHMOND:
*AVG TEMPERATURE OF 77.92 F RANKS AS THE 8TH WARMEST ON RECORD.

PRECIPITATION TOTAL OF 6.05" DID NOT ATTAIN A TOP 10 RANKING AT
RIC AIRPORT...BUT MANY LOCATIONS IN THE METRO AREA...RECEIVED IN
EXCESS OF 10.00 INCHES FOR THE MONTH.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/SAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...MAS/JEF
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011742
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
142 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
DROPS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT THEN BECOMES STATIONARY
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG
THE FRONT LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY SHOWS EARLIER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING
WELL OFF TO THE NE OF THE LOCAL AREA AS OF 16Z...LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF CU DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR. THERE IS SOME HAZE PERSISTING OVER
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE FA HOWEVER. WHILE WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO THE AFTN AND WILL KEEP THE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FAIRLY STABLE...THERE IS THE PRESENCE OF A
WEAK SFC TROUGH TO THE LEE OF THE MTNS. THUS...WILL CARRY 20% POPS
LATE (AFTER 20Z) OVER THE PIEDMONT...KEEPING A DRY FORECAST
ELSEWHERE THROUGH 22Z. 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 16-17C SHOULD SUPPORT
SEASONABLY WARM HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 F (WITH A FEW OF
THE TYPICALLY HOTTEST SPOTS POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 90S). WESTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW IS BRINGING A MODEST REPRIEVE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS
(DEW PTS INTO THE LWR- MID 60S).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. OVERALL...THE 00Z/01
NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH RESPECT TO SHOWERS/TSTMS ACCOMPANYING
THE BOUNDARY...WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE EITHER DRY OR INDICATE ONLY
ISO ACTIVITY. THERE IS SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER FORCING WILL
REMAIN WELL W OF THE REGION...SO WILL ONLY FORECAST A 20% POP WITH
THE BOUNDARY. INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE REGION THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DEVELOP A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER ERN NC AS ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER UPPER WAVE LOCATES OVER THE MID MS
VALLEY. 20-30% POPS THURSDAY MORNING INCREASE TO 40-50% POPS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/ EVENING OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC...THEN TO ~60%
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. PWATS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO
2+ INCHES THURSDAY NIGHT IN DEEP LAYER SW FLOW. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE
IN CONCERT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING ALONG THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE BOUNDARY AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION FRIDAY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-MS VALLEY LOW APPROACHES FROM THE W.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIKELY POPS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY. DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL (UP TO 600% OF NORMAL THIS PAST
WEEK)...MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AND CONTINUES TO BE HEADLINED
IN THE HWO. 72 HR RAINFALL TOTALS AVERAGE BETWEEN 1.0-1.5
IN...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

FORECAST HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AREA GENERALLY ON THE LOW-SIDE
OF GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE ANY
PERIODS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGHS THURSDAY RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S
NW...TO THE UPPER 80S SE...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS FRIDAY RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 70S NW...TO THE MID 80S FAR SE. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPSTREAM BLOCKING PATTERN RESULTS IN LITTLE MOVEMENT OF OVERALL
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THRU THE HOLIDAY WKEND / MED RANGE PERIOD.

MODELS STALL WAVY FRONTAL BNDRY ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC REGION SAT.
GFS WANTS TO PUSH THIS BNDRY INTO NORTH CAROLINA SUN AS WEAK HIGH
PRS BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WHILE ECMWF KEEPS THE
BNDRY NEARLY STNRY ACROSS THE RGN. THE BNDRY PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRNT MONDAY WITH A TROF LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
THUS LOOK FOR CHC POPS EACH DAY AS TIMING OF ANY ONE DISTURBANCE
RATHER PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT.

HIGHS SAT / SUN IN THE M-U80S...85-90 MON / TUE. LOWS U60S-M70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDS ACROSS THE REGION. SOME HZ/SMOKE ALOFT ON SATELLITE
APPEAR TO BE ORIGINATING FROM FAR NW CANADA. SFC WIND GENERALLY
FROM S/SW AROUND 10KT OR LESS. A WEAK TROF ACROSS THE REGION MAY
GENERATE SOME ISOLD CONVECTION LATE AFTN/EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO
THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THU AND BECOME STNRY. WAVES OF LOW PRES
ALONG THIS BNDRY WILL BRING A CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THU AND FRI AND
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDS.


&&

.MARINE...
SCA OVER THE BAY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THRU 7 AM AS WINDS THERE CONTINUE
TO GUST TO ~20-25 KT ERLY THIS MORNG. WINDS WILL THEN RELAX THRU THE
DAY AS A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FM THE NW. EXPECT 10-15 KT S WINDS
THIS AFTN WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVER THE BAY AND 2-4 FT SEAS OVER CSTL
WTRS. THE FRNT DROPS INTO THE AREA FM THE NW ON THU...WITH WINDS
BCMG LIGHT AND VRB AS THE FRNT STALLS AND REMAINS IN THE VICINITY
THRU FRI. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT AND SEAS AVG 2-4 FT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
SUB-SCA CONDS CONTINUING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AT NORFOLK:
*AVG TEMPERATURE OF 78.7 F RANKS AS THE 7TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
*TOTAL PRECIPITATION OF 8.34" RANKS AS 5TH WETTEST ON RECORD.

AT RICHMOND:
*AVG TEMPERATURE OF 77.92 F RANKS AS THE 8TH WARMEST ON RECORD.

PRECIPITATION TOTAL OF 6.05" DID NOT ATTAIN A TOP 10 RANKING AT
RIC AIRPORT...BUT MANY LOCATIONS IN THE METRO AREA...RECEIVED IN
EXCESS OF 10.00 INCHES FOR THE MONTH.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/SAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...MAS/JEF
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011655
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1255 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBED PATTERN WILL KEEP SOME RAIN IN THE FORECAST...BUT THE
TREND IS TOWARD DRIER WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE AS DRY AND STABLE
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. DETERIORATION OF MORNING STRATUS HAS
BEEN SLOW...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES HELD IN CHECK TO THIS POINT.
FURTHER MIXING OF DRY AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE THIS CLOUD
DECK AND BY EARLY EVENING SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A PLEASANT
EVENING ON TAP.

THINK THAT THE AREA WILL CLEAR OUT EFFECTIVELY THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME PATCHY
FOG INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE ARRIVES
IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THURSDAY WITH MID- AND HIGH-CLOUDS THAT
COULD DISRUPT RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT BUT...TRAJECTORY AND
RESULTANT CLOUD COVER IS STILL IN QUESTION. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH TONIGHT.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE A SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT PLOUGHS
SUFFICIENTLY SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO INITIATE SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE I 70
CORRIDOR...WITH PRECIP PROBABILITIES INCREASING NORTHWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A TRAILING DISTURBANCE AMPLIFIES THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE REGION.

THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WAS THUS RADICALLY CHANGED AND NOW
INCLUDES LIKELY POPS FOR AREAS FROM PIT SOUTHWARD...ALL BASED ON
A BLEND OF SREF...AND THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC TREND OF GFS AND
NAM.

TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST JUST UNDER THE SEASONAL AVERAGES GIVEN
THE PERSISTENT TROUGHING ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA WILL LINGER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. BY SUNDAY NIGHT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT
MAY FINALLY SHIFT OUT OF THE REGION...BRINGING A BRIEF DRY SPELL
TO ALL LOCATIONS. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
GFS/ECMWF HAVE VASTLY DIFFERENT TIMING FOR WHEN THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WOULD CROSS THE REGION...WITH THE ECMWF MUCH FASTER
WITH THE FRONT. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH TIMING SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF...PRIMARILY BECAUSE MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE IN
BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CREEP
UP A FEW DEGREES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW STRATUS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF DECAY...BUT TRANSITION FROM
IFR/MVFR STRATUS TO MVFR/VFR STRATOCU WILL BE GRADUAL WITH SOME
LOCATIONS IMPROVING QUIKER THAN OTHERS.

SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...PRIMARILY NORTH OF
I-80 CORRIDOR. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF VCSH IN FKL/DUJ TAFS FOR
THE TIME BEING. COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR
TWO...BUT CONFIDENCE IN IMPACT TO FKL/DUJ IS LOW. ANOTHER ROUND
OF IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
RESTRICTIONS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011655
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1255 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBED PATTERN WILL KEEP SOME RAIN IN THE FORECAST...BUT THE
TREND IS TOWARD DRIER WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE AS DRY AND STABLE
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. DETERIORATION OF MORNING STRATUS HAS
BEEN SLOW...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES HELD IN CHECK TO THIS POINT.
FURTHER MIXING OF DRY AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE THIS CLOUD
DECK AND BY EARLY EVENING SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A PLEASANT
EVENING ON TAP.

THINK THAT THE AREA WILL CLEAR OUT EFFECTIVELY THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME PATCHY
FOG INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE ARRIVES
IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THURSDAY WITH MID- AND HIGH-CLOUDS THAT
COULD DISRUPT RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT BUT...TRAJECTORY AND
RESULTANT CLOUD COVER IS STILL IN QUESTION. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH TONIGHT.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE A SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT PLOUGHS
SUFFICIENTLY SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO INITIATE SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE I 70
CORRIDOR...WITH PRECIP PROBABILITIES INCREASING NORTHWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A TRAILING DISTURBANCE AMPLIFIES THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE REGION.

THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WAS THUS RADICALLY CHANGED AND NOW
INCLUDES LIKELY POPS FOR AREAS FROM PIT SOUTHWARD...ALL BASED ON
A BLEND OF SREF...AND THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC TREND OF GFS AND
NAM.

TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST JUST UNDER THE SEASONAL AVERAGES GIVEN
THE PERSISTENT TROUGHING ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA WILL LINGER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. BY SUNDAY NIGHT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT
MAY FINALLY SHIFT OUT OF THE REGION...BRINGING A BRIEF DRY SPELL
TO ALL LOCATIONS. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
GFS/ECMWF HAVE VASTLY DIFFERENT TIMING FOR WHEN THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WOULD CROSS THE REGION...WITH THE ECMWF MUCH FASTER
WITH THE FRONT. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH TIMING SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF...PRIMARILY BECAUSE MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE IN
BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CREEP
UP A FEW DEGREES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW STRATUS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF DECAY...BUT TRANSITION FROM
IFR/MVFR STRATUS TO MVFR/VFR STRATOCU WILL BE GRADUAL WITH SOME
LOCATIONS IMPROVING QUIKER THAN OTHERS.

SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...PRIMARILY NORTH OF
I-80 CORRIDOR. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF VCSH IN FKL/DUJ TAFS FOR
THE TIME BEING. COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR
TWO...BUT CONFIDENCE IN IMPACT TO FKL/DUJ IS LOW. ANOTHER ROUND
OF IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
RESTRICTIONS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011655
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1255 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBED PATTERN WILL KEEP SOME RAIN IN THE FORECAST...BUT THE
TREND IS TOWARD DRIER WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE AS DRY AND STABLE
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. DETERIORATION OF MORNING STRATUS HAS
BEEN SLOW...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES HELD IN CHECK TO THIS POINT.
FURTHER MIXING OF DRY AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE THIS CLOUD
DECK AND BY EARLY EVENING SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A PLEASANT
EVENING ON TAP.

THINK THAT THE AREA WILL CLEAR OUT EFFECTIVELY THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME PATCHY
FOG INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE ARRIVES
IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THURSDAY WITH MID- AND HIGH-CLOUDS THAT
COULD DISRUPT RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT BUT...TRAJECTORY AND
RESULTANT CLOUD COVER IS STILL IN QUESTION. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH TONIGHT.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE A SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT PLOUGHS
SUFFICIENTLY SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO INITIATE SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE I 70
CORRIDOR...WITH PRECIP PROBABILITIES INCREASING NORTHWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A TRAILING DISTURBANCE AMPLIFIES THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE REGION.

THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WAS THUS RADICALLY CHANGED AND NOW
INCLUDES LIKELY POPS FOR AREAS FROM PIT SOUTHWARD...ALL BASED ON
A BLEND OF SREF...AND THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC TREND OF GFS AND
NAM.

TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST JUST UNDER THE SEASONAL AVERAGES GIVEN
THE PERSISTENT TROUGHING ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA WILL LINGER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. BY SUNDAY NIGHT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT
MAY FINALLY SHIFT OUT OF THE REGION...BRINGING A BRIEF DRY SPELL
TO ALL LOCATIONS. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
GFS/ECMWF HAVE VASTLY DIFFERENT TIMING FOR WHEN THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WOULD CROSS THE REGION...WITH THE ECMWF MUCH FASTER
WITH THE FRONT. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH TIMING SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF...PRIMARILY BECAUSE MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE IN
BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CREEP
UP A FEW DEGREES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW STRATUS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF DECAY...BUT TRANSITION FROM
IFR/MVFR STRATUS TO MVFR/VFR STRATOCU WILL BE GRADUAL WITH SOME
LOCATIONS IMPROVING QUIKER THAN OTHERS.

SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...PRIMARILY NORTH OF
I-80 CORRIDOR. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF VCSH IN FKL/DUJ TAFS FOR
THE TIME BEING. COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR
TWO...BUT CONFIDENCE IN IMPACT TO FKL/DUJ IS LOW. ANOTHER ROUND
OF IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
RESTRICTIONS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011655
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1255 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBED PATTERN WILL KEEP SOME RAIN IN THE FORECAST...BUT THE
TREND IS TOWARD DRIER WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE AS DRY AND STABLE
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. DETERIORATION OF MORNING STRATUS HAS
BEEN SLOW...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES HELD IN CHECK TO THIS POINT.
FURTHER MIXING OF DRY AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE THIS CLOUD
DECK AND BY EARLY EVENING SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A PLEASANT
EVENING ON TAP.

THINK THAT THE AREA WILL CLEAR OUT EFFECTIVELY THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME PATCHY
FOG INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE ARRIVES
IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THURSDAY WITH MID- AND HIGH-CLOUDS THAT
COULD DISRUPT RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT BUT...TRAJECTORY AND
RESULTANT CLOUD COVER IS STILL IN QUESTION. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH TONIGHT.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE A SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT PLOUGHS
SUFFICIENTLY SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO INITIATE SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE I 70
CORRIDOR...WITH PRECIP PROBABILITIES INCREASING NORTHWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A TRAILING DISTURBANCE AMPLIFIES THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE REGION.

THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WAS THUS RADICALLY CHANGED AND NOW
INCLUDES LIKELY POPS FOR AREAS FROM PIT SOUTHWARD...ALL BASED ON
A BLEND OF SREF...AND THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC TREND OF GFS AND
NAM.

TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST JUST UNDER THE SEASONAL AVERAGES GIVEN
THE PERSISTENT TROUGHING ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA WILL LINGER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. BY SUNDAY NIGHT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT
MAY FINALLY SHIFT OUT OF THE REGION...BRINGING A BRIEF DRY SPELL
TO ALL LOCATIONS. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
GFS/ECMWF HAVE VASTLY DIFFERENT TIMING FOR WHEN THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WOULD CROSS THE REGION...WITH THE ECMWF MUCH FASTER
WITH THE FRONT. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH TIMING SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF...PRIMARILY BECAUSE MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE IN
BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CREEP
UP A FEW DEGREES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW STRATUS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF DECAY...BUT TRANSITION FROM
IFR/MVFR STRATUS TO MVFR/VFR STRATOCU WILL BE GRADUAL WITH SOME
LOCATIONS IMPROVING QUIKER THAN OTHERS.

SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...PRIMARILY NORTH OF
I-80 CORRIDOR. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF VCSH IN FKL/DUJ TAFS FOR
THE TIME BEING. COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR
TWO...BUT CONFIDENCE IN IMPACT TO FKL/DUJ IS LOW. ANOTHER ROUND
OF IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
RESTRICTIONS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011611
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1211 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
DROPS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT THEN BECOMES STATIONARY
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG
THE FRONT LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY SHOWS EARLIER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING
WELL OFF TO THE NE OF THE LOCAL AREA AS OF 16Z...LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF CU DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR. THERE IS SOME HAZE PERSISTING OVER
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE FA HOWEVER. WHILE WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO THE AFTN AND WILL KEEP THE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FAIRLY STABLE...THERE IS THE PRESENCE OF A
WEAK SFC TROUGH TO THE LEE OF THE MTNS. THUS...WILL CARRY 20% POPS
LATE (AFTER 20Z) OVER THE PIEDMONT...KEEPING A DRY FORECAST
ELSEWHERE THROUGH 22Z. 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 16-17C SHOULD SUPPORT
SEASONABLY WARM HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 F (WITH A FEW OF
THE TYPICALLY HOTTEST SPOTS POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 90S). WESTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW IS BRINGING A MODEST REPRIEVE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS
(DEW PTS INTO THE LWR- MID 60S).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. OVERALL...THE 00Z/01
NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH RESPECT TO SHOWERS/TSTMS ACCOMPANYING
THE BOUNDARY...WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE EITHER DRY OR INDICATE ONLY
ISO ACTIVITY. THERE IS SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER FORCING WILL
REMAIN WELL W OF THE REGION...SO WILL ONLY FORECAST A 20% POP WITH
THE BOUNDARY. INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE REGION THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DEVELOP A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER ERN NC AS ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER UPPER WAVE LOCATES OVER THE MID MS
VALLEY. 20-30% POPS THURSDAY MORNING INCREASE TO 40-50% POPS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/ EVENING OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC...THEN TO ~60%
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. PWATS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO
2+ INCHES THURSDAY NIGHT IN DEEP LAYER SW FLOW. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE
IN CONCERT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING ALONG THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE BOUNDARY AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION FRIDAY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-MS VALLEY LOW APPROACHES FROM THE W.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIKELY POPS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY. DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL (UP TO 600% OF NORMAL THIS PAST
WEEK)...MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AND CONTINUES TO BE HEADLINED
IN THE HWO. 72 HR RAINFALL TOTALS AVERAGE BETWEEN 1.0-1.5
IN...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

FORECAST HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AREA GENERALLY ON THE LOW-SIDE
OF GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE ANY
PERIODS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGHS THURSDAY RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S
NW...TO THE UPPER 80S SE...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS FRIDAY RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 70S NW...TO THE MID 80S FAR SE. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPSTREAM BLOCKING PATTERN RESULTS IN LITTLE MOVEMENT OF OVERALL
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THRU THE HOLIDAY WKEND / MED RANGE PERIOD.

MODELS STALL WAVY FRONTAL BNDRY ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC REGION SAT.
GFS WANTS TO PUSH THIS BNDRY INTO NORTH CAROLINA SUN AS WEAK HIGH
PRS BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WHILE ECMWF KEEPS THE
BNDRY NEARLY STNRY ACROSS THE RGN. THE BNDRY PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRNT MONDAY WITH A TROF LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
THUS LOOK FOR CHC POPS EACH DAY AS TIMING OF ANY ONE DISTURBANCE
RATHER PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT.

HIGHS SAT / SUN IN THE M-U80S...85-90 MON / TUE. LOWS U60S-M70S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THRU THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. S/SW FLOW ~10 KT CONTINUES TDA
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT. EXPECT MAINLY HI CLOUDS...WITH
SHRAS/TSTMS PSBL THIS AFTN/EVENG THOUGH CHANCES ARE NOT HI ENUF TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK...A FRONTAL SYSTM WILL DROP INTO THE AREA THU AND LINGER
THROUGH SUNDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE CONVECTION.
THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS EACH DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES THU NIGHT AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA OVER THE BAY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THRU 7 AM AS WINDS THERE CONTINUE
TO GUST TO ~20-25 KT ERLY THIS MORNG. WINDS WILL THEN RELAX THRU THE
DAY AS A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FM THE NW. EXPECT 10-15 KT S WINDS
THIS AFTN WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVER THE BAY AND 2-4 FT SEAS OVER CSTL
WTRS. THE FRNT DROPS INTO THE AREA FM THE NW ON THU...WITH WINDS
BCMG LIGHT AND VRB AS THE FRNT STALLS AND REMAINS IN THE VICINITY
THRU FRI. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT AND SEAS AVG 2-4 FT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
SUB-SCA CONDS CONTINUING.

&&

.CLIMATE...

AT NORFOLK:
*AVG TEMPERATURE OF 78.7 F RANKS AS THE 7TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
*TOTAL PRECIPITATION OF 8.34" RANKS AS 5TH WETTEST ON RECORD.

AT RICHMOND:
*AVG TEMPERATURE OF 77.92 F RANKS AS THE 8TH WARMEST ON RECORD.

PRECIPITATION TOTAL OF 6.05" DID NOT ATTAIN A TOP 10 RANKING AT
RIC AIRPORT...BUT MANY LOCATIONS IN THE METRO AREA...RECEIVED IN
EXCESS OF 10.00 INCHES FOR THE MONTH.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/SAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...LKB




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011611
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1211 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
DROPS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT THEN BECOMES STATIONARY
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG
THE FRONT LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY SHOWS EARLIER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING
WELL OFF TO THE NE OF THE LOCAL AREA AS OF 16Z...LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF CU DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR. THERE IS SOME HAZE PERSISTING OVER
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE FA HOWEVER. WHILE WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO THE AFTN AND WILL KEEP THE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FAIRLY STABLE...THERE IS THE PRESENCE OF A
WEAK SFC TROUGH TO THE LEE OF THE MTNS. THUS...WILL CARRY 20% POPS
LATE (AFTER 20Z) OVER THE PIEDMONT...KEEPING A DRY FORECAST
ELSEWHERE THROUGH 22Z. 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 16-17C SHOULD SUPPORT
SEASONABLY WARM HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 F (WITH A FEW OF
THE TYPICALLY HOTTEST SPOTS POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 90S). WESTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW IS BRINGING A MODEST REPRIEVE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS
(DEW PTS INTO THE LWR- MID 60S).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. OVERALL...THE 00Z/01
NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH RESPECT TO SHOWERS/TSTMS ACCOMPANYING
THE BOUNDARY...WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE EITHER DRY OR INDICATE ONLY
ISO ACTIVITY. THERE IS SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER FORCING WILL
REMAIN WELL W OF THE REGION...SO WILL ONLY FORECAST A 20% POP WITH
THE BOUNDARY. INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE REGION THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DEVELOP A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER ERN NC AS ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER UPPER WAVE LOCATES OVER THE MID MS
VALLEY. 20-30% POPS THURSDAY MORNING INCREASE TO 40-50% POPS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/ EVENING OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC...THEN TO ~60%
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. PWATS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO
2+ INCHES THURSDAY NIGHT IN DEEP LAYER SW FLOW. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE
IN CONCERT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING ALONG THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE BOUNDARY AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION FRIDAY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-MS VALLEY LOW APPROACHES FROM THE W.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIKELY POPS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY. DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL (UP TO 600% OF NORMAL THIS PAST
WEEK)...MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AND CONTINUES TO BE HEADLINED
IN THE HWO. 72 HR RAINFALL TOTALS AVERAGE BETWEEN 1.0-1.5
IN...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

FORECAST HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AREA GENERALLY ON THE LOW-SIDE
OF GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE ANY
PERIODS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGHS THURSDAY RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S
NW...TO THE UPPER 80S SE...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS FRIDAY RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 70S NW...TO THE MID 80S FAR SE. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPSTREAM BLOCKING PATTERN RESULTS IN LITTLE MOVEMENT OF OVERALL
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THRU THE HOLIDAY WKEND / MED RANGE PERIOD.

MODELS STALL WAVY FRONTAL BNDRY ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC REGION SAT.
GFS WANTS TO PUSH THIS BNDRY INTO NORTH CAROLINA SUN AS WEAK HIGH
PRS BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WHILE ECMWF KEEPS THE
BNDRY NEARLY STNRY ACROSS THE RGN. THE BNDRY PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRNT MONDAY WITH A TROF LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
THUS LOOK FOR CHC POPS EACH DAY AS TIMING OF ANY ONE DISTURBANCE
RATHER PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT.

HIGHS SAT / SUN IN THE M-U80S...85-90 MON / TUE. LOWS U60S-M70S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THRU THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. S/SW FLOW ~10 KT CONTINUES TDA
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT. EXPECT MAINLY HI CLOUDS...WITH
SHRAS/TSTMS PSBL THIS AFTN/EVENG THOUGH CHANCES ARE NOT HI ENUF TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK...A FRONTAL SYSTM WILL DROP INTO THE AREA THU AND LINGER
THROUGH SUNDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE CONVECTION.
THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS EACH DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES THU NIGHT AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA OVER THE BAY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THRU 7 AM AS WINDS THERE CONTINUE
TO GUST TO ~20-25 KT ERLY THIS MORNG. WINDS WILL THEN RELAX THRU THE
DAY AS A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FM THE NW. EXPECT 10-15 KT S WINDS
THIS AFTN WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVER THE BAY AND 2-4 FT SEAS OVER CSTL
WTRS. THE FRNT DROPS INTO THE AREA FM THE NW ON THU...WITH WINDS
BCMG LIGHT AND VRB AS THE FRNT STALLS AND REMAINS IN THE VICINITY
THRU FRI. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT AND SEAS AVG 2-4 FT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
SUB-SCA CONDS CONTINUING.

&&

.CLIMATE...

AT NORFOLK:
*AVG TEMPERATURE OF 78.7 F RANKS AS THE 7TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
*TOTAL PRECIPITATION OF 8.34" RANKS AS 5TH WETTEST ON RECORD.

AT RICHMOND:
*AVG TEMPERATURE OF 77.92 F RANKS AS THE 8TH WARMEST ON RECORD.

PRECIPITATION TOTAL OF 6.05" DID NOT ATTAIN A TOP 10 RANKING AT
RIC AIRPORT...BUT MANY LOCATIONS IN THE METRO AREA...RECEIVED IN
EXCESS OF 10.00 INCHES FOR THE MONTH.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/SAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...LKB




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011611
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1211 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
DROPS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT THEN BECOMES STATIONARY
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG
THE FRONT LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY SHOWS EARLIER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING
WELL OFF TO THE NE OF THE LOCAL AREA AS OF 16Z...LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF CU DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR. THERE IS SOME HAZE PERSISTING OVER
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE FA HOWEVER. WHILE WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO THE AFTN AND WILL KEEP THE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FAIRLY STABLE...THERE IS THE PRESENCE OF A
WEAK SFC TROUGH TO THE LEE OF THE MTNS. THUS...WILL CARRY 20% POPS
LATE (AFTER 20Z) OVER THE PIEDMONT...KEEPING A DRY FORECAST
ELSEWHERE THROUGH 22Z. 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 16-17C SHOULD SUPPORT
SEASONABLY WARM HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 F (WITH A FEW OF
THE TYPICALLY HOTTEST SPOTS POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 90S). WESTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW IS BRINGING A MODEST REPRIEVE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS
(DEW PTS INTO THE LWR- MID 60S).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. OVERALL...THE 00Z/01
NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH RESPECT TO SHOWERS/TSTMS ACCOMPANYING
THE BOUNDARY...WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE EITHER DRY OR INDICATE ONLY
ISO ACTIVITY. THERE IS SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER FORCING WILL
REMAIN WELL W OF THE REGION...SO WILL ONLY FORECAST A 20% POP WITH
THE BOUNDARY. INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE REGION THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DEVELOP A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER ERN NC AS ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER UPPER WAVE LOCATES OVER THE MID MS
VALLEY. 20-30% POPS THURSDAY MORNING INCREASE TO 40-50% POPS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/ EVENING OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC...THEN TO ~60%
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. PWATS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO
2+ INCHES THURSDAY NIGHT IN DEEP LAYER SW FLOW. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE
IN CONCERT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING ALONG THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE BOUNDARY AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION FRIDAY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-MS VALLEY LOW APPROACHES FROM THE W.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIKELY POPS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY. DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL (UP TO 600% OF NORMAL THIS PAST
WEEK)...MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AND CONTINUES TO BE HEADLINED
IN THE HWO. 72 HR RAINFALL TOTALS AVERAGE BETWEEN 1.0-1.5
IN...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

FORECAST HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AREA GENERALLY ON THE LOW-SIDE
OF GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE ANY
PERIODS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGHS THURSDAY RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S
NW...TO THE UPPER 80S SE...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS FRIDAY RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 70S NW...TO THE MID 80S FAR SE. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPSTREAM BLOCKING PATTERN RESULTS IN LITTLE MOVEMENT OF OVERALL
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THRU THE HOLIDAY WKEND / MED RANGE PERIOD.

MODELS STALL WAVY FRONTAL BNDRY ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC REGION SAT.
GFS WANTS TO PUSH THIS BNDRY INTO NORTH CAROLINA SUN AS WEAK HIGH
PRS BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WHILE ECMWF KEEPS THE
BNDRY NEARLY STNRY ACROSS THE RGN. THE BNDRY PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRNT MONDAY WITH A TROF LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
THUS LOOK FOR CHC POPS EACH DAY AS TIMING OF ANY ONE DISTURBANCE
RATHER PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT.

HIGHS SAT / SUN IN THE M-U80S...85-90 MON / TUE. LOWS U60S-M70S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THRU THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. S/SW FLOW ~10 KT CONTINUES TDA
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT. EXPECT MAINLY HI CLOUDS...WITH
SHRAS/TSTMS PSBL THIS AFTN/EVENG THOUGH CHANCES ARE NOT HI ENUF TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK...A FRONTAL SYSTM WILL DROP INTO THE AREA THU AND LINGER
THROUGH SUNDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE CONVECTION.
THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS EACH DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES THU NIGHT AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA OVER THE BAY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THRU 7 AM AS WINDS THERE CONTINUE
TO GUST TO ~20-25 KT ERLY THIS MORNG. WINDS WILL THEN RELAX THRU THE
DAY AS A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FM THE NW. EXPECT 10-15 KT S WINDS
THIS AFTN WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVER THE BAY AND 2-4 FT SEAS OVER CSTL
WTRS. THE FRNT DROPS INTO THE AREA FM THE NW ON THU...WITH WINDS
BCMG LIGHT AND VRB AS THE FRNT STALLS AND REMAINS IN THE VICINITY
THRU FRI. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT AND SEAS AVG 2-4 FT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
SUB-SCA CONDS CONTINUING.

&&

.CLIMATE...

AT NORFOLK:
*AVG TEMPERATURE OF 78.7 F RANKS AS THE 7TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
*TOTAL PRECIPITATION OF 8.34" RANKS AS 5TH WETTEST ON RECORD.

AT RICHMOND:
*AVG TEMPERATURE OF 77.92 F RANKS AS THE 8TH WARMEST ON RECORD.

PRECIPITATION TOTAL OF 6.05" DID NOT ATTAIN A TOP 10 RANKING AT
RIC AIRPORT...BUT MANY LOCATIONS IN THE METRO AREA...RECEIVED IN
EXCESS OF 10.00 INCHES FOR THE MONTH.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/SAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...LKB




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011611
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1211 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
DROPS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT THEN BECOMES STATIONARY
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG
THE FRONT LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY SHOWS EARLIER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING
WELL OFF TO THE NE OF THE LOCAL AREA AS OF 16Z...LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF CU DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR. THERE IS SOME HAZE PERSISTING OVER
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE FA HOWEVER. WHILE WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO THE AFTN AND WILL KEEP THE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FAIRLY STABLE...THERE IS THE PRESENCE OF A
WEAK SFC TROUGH TO THE LEE OF THE MTNS. THUS...WILL CARRY 20% POPS
LATE (AFTER 20Z) OVER THE PIEDMONT...KEEPING A DRY FORECAST
ELSEWHERE THROUGH 22Z. 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 16-17C SHOULD SUPPORT
SEASONABLY WARM HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 F (WITH A FEW OF
THE TYPICALLY HOTTEST SPOTS POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 90S). WESTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW IS BRINGING A MODEST REPRIEVE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS
(DEW PTS INTO THE LWR- MID 60S).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. OVERALL...THE 00Z/01
NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH RESPECT TO SHOWERS/TSTMS ACCOMPANYING
THE BOUNDARY...WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE EITHER DRY OR INDICATE ONLY
ISO ACTIVITY. THERE IS SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER FORCING WILL
REMAIN WELL W OF THE REGION...SO WILL ONLY FORECAST A 20% POP WITH
THE BOUNDARY. INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE REGION THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DEVELOP A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER ERN NC AS ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER UPPER WAVE LOCATES OVER THE MID MS
VALLEY. 20-30% POPS THURSDAY MORNING INCREASE TO 40-50% POPS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/ EVENING OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC...THEN TO ~60%
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. PWATS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO
2+ INCHES THURSDAY NIGHT IN DEEP LAYER SW FLOW. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE
IN CONCERT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING ALONG THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE BOUNDARY AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION FRIDAY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-MS VALLEY LOW APPROACHES FROM THE W.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIKELY POPS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY. DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL (UP TO 600% OF NORMAL THIS PAST
WEEK)...MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AND CONTINUES TO BE HEADLINED
IN THE HWO. 72 HR RAINFALL TOTALS AVERAGE BETWEEN 1.0-1.5
IN...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

FORECAST HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AREA GENERALLY ON THE LOW-SIDE
OF GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE ANY
PERIODS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGHS THURSDAY RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S
NW...TO THE UPPER 80S SE...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS FRIDAY RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 70S NW...TO THE MID 80S FAR SE. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPSTREAM BLOCKING PATTERN RESULTS IN LITTLE MOVEMENT OF OVERALL
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THRU THE HOLIDAY WKEND / MED RANGE PERIOD.

MODELS STALL WAVY FRONTAL BNDRY ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC REGION SAT.
GFS WANTS TO PUSH THIS BNDRY INTO NORTH CAROLINA SUN AS WEAK HIGH
PRS BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WHILE ECMWF KEEPS THE
BNDRY NEARLY STNRY ACROSS THE RGN. THE BNDRY PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRNT MONDAY WITH A TROF LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
THUS LOOK FOR CHC POPS EACH DAY AS TIMING OF ANY ONE DISTURBANCE
RATHER PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT.

HIGHS SAT / SUN IN THE M-U80S...85-90 MON / TUE. LOWS U60S-M70S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THRU THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. S/SW FLOW ~10 KT CONTINUES TDA
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT. EXPECT MAINLY HI CLOUDS...WITH
SHRAS/TSTMS PSBL THIS AFTN/EVENG THOUGH CHANCES ARE NOT HI ENUF TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK...A FRONTAL SYSTM WILL DROP INTO THE AREA THU AND LINGER
THROUGH SUNDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE CONVECTION.
THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS EACH DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES THU NIGHT AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA OVER THE BAY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THRU 7 AM AS WINDS THERE CONTINUE
TO GUST TO ~20-25 KT ERLY THIS MORNG. WINDS WILL THEN RELAX THRU THE
DAY AS A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FM THE NW. EXPECT 10-15 KT S WINDS
THIS AFTN WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVER THE BAY AND 2-4 FT SEAS OVER CSTL
WTRS. THE FRNT DROPS INTO THE AREA FM THE NW ON THU...WITH WINDS
BCMG LIGHT AND VRB AS THE FRNT STALLS AND REMAINS IN THE VICINITY
THRU FRI. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT AND SEAS AVG 2-4 FT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
SUB-SCA CONDS CONTINUING.

&&

.CLIMATE...

AT NORFOLK:
*AVG TEMPERATURE OF 78.7 F RANKS AS THE 7TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
*TOTAL PRECIPITATION OF 8.34" RANKS AS 5TH WETTEST ON RECORD.

AT RICHMOND:
*AVG TEMPERATURE OF 77.92 F RANKS AS THE 8TH WARMEST ON RECORD.

PRECIPITATION TOTAL OF 6.05" DID NOT ATTAIN A TOP 10 RANKING AT
RIC AIRPORT...BUT MANY LOCATIONS IN THE METRO AREA...RECEIVED IN
EXCESS OF 10.00 INCHES FOR THE MONTH.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/SAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...LKB




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011611
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1211 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
DROPS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT THEN BECOMES STATIONARY
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG
THE FRONT LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY SHOWS EARLIER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING
WELL OFF TO THE NE OF THE LOCAL AREA AS OF 16Z...LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF CU DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR. THERE IS SOME HAZE PERSISTING OVER
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE FA HOWEVER. WHILE WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO THE AFTN AND WILL KEEP THE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FAIRLY STABLE...THERE IS THE PRESENCE OF A
WEAK SFC TROUGH TO THE LEE OF THE MTNS. THUS...WILL CARRY 20% POPS
LATE (AFTER 20Z) OVER THE PIEDMONT...KEEPING A DRY FORECAST
ELSEWHERE THROUGH 22Z. 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 16-17C SHOULD SUPPORT
SEASONABLY WARM HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 F (WITH A FEW OF
THE TYPICALLY HOTTEST SPOTS POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 90S). WESTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW IS BRINGING A MODEST REPRIEVE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS
(DEW PTS INTO THE LWR- MID 60S).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. OVERALL...THE 00Z/01
NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH RESPECT TO SHOWERS/TSTMS ACCOMPANYING
THE BOUNDARY...WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE EITHER DRY OR INDICATE ONLY
ISO ACTIVITY. THERE IS SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER FORCING WILL
REMAIN WELL W OF THE REGION...SO WILL ONLY FORECAST A 20% POP WITH
THE BOUNDARY. INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE REGION THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DEVELOP A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER ERN NC AS ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER UPPER WAVE LOCATES OVER THE MID MS
VALLEY. 20-30% POPS THURSDAY MORNING INCREASE TO 40-50% POPS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/ EVENING OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC...THEN TO ~60%
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. PWATS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO
2+ INCHES THURSDAY NIGHT IN DEEP LAYER SW FLOW. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE
IN CONCERT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING ALONG THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE BOUNDARY AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION FRIDAY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-MS VALLEY LOW APPROACHES FROM THE W.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIKELY POPS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY. DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL (UP TO 600% OF NORMAL THIS PAST
WEEK)...MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AND CONTINUES TO BE HEADLINED
IN THE HWO. 72 HR RAINFALL TOTALS AVERAGE BETWEEN 1.0-1.5
IN...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

FORECAST HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AREA GENERALLY ON THE LOW-SIDE
OF GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE ANY
PERIODS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGHS THURSDAY RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S
NW...TO THE UPPER 80S SE...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS FRIDAY RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 70S NW...TO THE MID 80S FAR SE. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPSTREAM BLOCKING PATTERN RESULTS IN LITTLE MOVEMENT OF OVERALL
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THRU THE HOLIDAY WKEND / MED RANGE PERIOD.

MODELS STALL WAVY FRONTAL BNDRY ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC REGION SAT.
GFS WANTS TO PUSH THIS BNDRY INTO NORTH CAROLINA SUN AS WEAK HIGH
PRS BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WHILE ECMWF KEEPS THE
BNDRY NEARLY STNRY ACROSS THE RGN. THE BNDRY PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRNT MONDAY WITH A TROF LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
THUS LOOK FOR CHC POPS EACH DAY AS TIMING OF ANY ONE DISTURBANCE
RATHER PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT.

HIGHS SAT / SUN IN THE M-U80S...85-90 MON / TUE. LOWS U60S-M70S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THRU THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. S/SW FLOW ~10 KT CONTINUES TDA
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT. EXPECT MAINLY HI CLOUDS...WITH
SHRAS/TSTMS PSBL THIS AFTN/EVENG THOUGH CHANCES ARE NOT HI ENUF TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK...A FRONTAL SYSTM WILL DROP INTO THE AREA THU AND LINGER
THROUGH SUNDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE CONVECTION.
THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS EACH DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES THU NIGHT AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA OVER THE BAY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THRU 7 AM AS WINDS THERE CONTINUE
TO GUST TO ~20-25 KT ERLY THIS MORNG. WINDS WILL THEN RELAX THRU THE
DAY AS A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FM THE NW. EXPECT 10-15 KT S WINDS
THIS AFTN WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVER THE BAY AND 2-4 FT SEAS OVER CSTL
WTRS. THE FRNT DROPS INTO THE AREA FM THE NW ON THU...WITH WINDS
BCMG LIGHT AND VRB AS THE FRNT STALLS AND REMAINS IN THE VICINITY
THRU FRI. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT AND SEAS AVG 2-4 FT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
SUB-SCA CONDS CONTINUING.

&&

.CLIMATE...

AT NORFOLK:
*AVG TEMPERATURE OF 78.7 F RANKS AS THE 7TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
*TOTAL PRECIPITATION OF 8.34" RANKS AS 5TH WETTEST ON RECORD.

AT RICHMOND:
*AVG TEMPERATURE OF 77.92 F RANKS AS THE 8TH WARMEST ON RECORD.

PRECIPITATION TOTAL OF 6.05" DID NOT ATTAIN A TOP 10 RANKING AT
RIC AIRPORT...BUT MANY LOCATIONS IN THE METRO AREA...RECEIVED IN
EXCESS OF 10.00 INCHES FOR THE MONTH.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/SAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...LKB




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011611
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1211 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
DROPS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT THEN BECOMES STATIONARY
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG
THE FRONT LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY SHOWS EARLIER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING
WELL OFF TO THE NE OF THE LOCAL AREA AS OF 16Z...LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF CU DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR. THERE IS SOME HAZE PERSISTING OVER
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE FA HOWEVER. WHILE WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO THE AFTN AND WILL KEEP THE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FAIRLY STABLE...THERE IS THE PRESENCE OF A
WEAK SFC TROUGH TO THE LEE OF THE MTNS. THUS...WILL CARRY 20% POPS
LATE (AFTER 20Z) OVER THE PIEDMONT...KEEPING A DRY FORECAST
ELSEWHERE THROUGH 22Z. 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 16-17C SHOULD SUPPORT
SEASONABLY WARM HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 F (WITH A FEW OF
THE TYPICALLY HOTTEST SPOTS POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 90S). WESTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW IS BRINGING A MODEST REPRIEVE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS
(DEW PTS INTO THE LWR- MID 60S).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. OVERALL...THE 00Z/01
NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH RESPECT TO SHOWERS/TSTMS ACCOMPANYING
THE BOUNDARY...WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE EITHER DRY OR INDICATE ONLY
ISO ACTIVITY. THERE IS SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER FORCING WILL
REMAIN WELL W OF THE REGION...SO WILL ONLY FORECAST A 20% POP WITH
THE BOUNDARY. INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE REGION THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DEVELOP A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER ERN NC AS ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER UPPER WAVE LOCATES OVER THE MID MS
VALLEY. 20-30% POPS THURSDAY MORNING INCREASE TO 40-50% POPS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/ EVENING OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC...THEN TO ~60%
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. PWATS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO
2+ INCHES THURSDAY NIGHT IN DEEP LAYER SW FLOW. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE
IN CONCERT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING ALONG THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE BOUNDARY AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION FRIDAY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-MS VALLEY LOW APPROACHES FROM THE W.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIKELY POPS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY. DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL (UP TO 600% OF NORMAL THIS PAST
WEEK)...MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AND CONTINUES TO BE HEADLINED
IN THE HWO. 72 HR RAINFALL TOTALS AVERAGE BETWEEN 1.0-1.5
IN...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

FORECAST HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AREA GENERALLY ON THE LOW-SIDE
OF GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE ANY
PERIODS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGHS THURSDAY RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S
NW...TO THE UPPER 80S SE...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS FRIDAY RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 70S NW...TO THE MID 80S FAR SE. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPSTREAM BLOCKING PATTERN RESULTS IN LITTLE MOVEMENT OF OVERALL
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THRU THE HOLIDAY WKEND / MED RANGE PERIOD.

MODELS STALL WAVY FRONTAL BNDRY ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC REGION SAT.
GFS WANTS TO PUSH THIS BNDRY INTO NORTH CAROLINA SUN AS WEAK HIGH
PRS BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WHILE ECMWF KEEPS THE
BNDRY NEARLY STNRY ACROSS THE RGN. THE BNDRY PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRNT MONDAY WITH A TROF LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
THUS LOOK FOR CHC POPS EACH DAY AS TIMING OF ANY ONE DISTURBANCE
RATHER PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT.

HIGHS SAT / SUN IN THE M-U80S...85-90 MON / TUE. LOWS U60S-M70S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THRU THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. S/SW FLOW ~10 KT CONTINUES TDA
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT. EXPECT MAINLY HI CLOUDS...WITH
SHRAS/TSTMS PSBL THIS AFTN/EVENG THOUGH CHANCES ARE NOT HI ENUF TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK...A FRONTAL SYSTM WILL DROP INTO THE AREA THU AND LINGER
THROUGH SUNDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE CONVECTION.
THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS EACH DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES THU NIGHT AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA OVER THE BAY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THRU 7 AM AS WINDS THERE CONTINUE
TO GUST TO ~20-25 KT ERLY THIS MORNG. WINDS WILL THEN RELAX THRU THE
DAY AS A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FM THE NW. EXPECT 10-15 KT S WINDS
THIS AFTN WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVER THE BAY AND 2-4 FT SEAS OVER CSTL
WTRS. THE FRNT DROPS INTO THE AREA FM THE NW ON THU...WITH WINDS
BCMG LIGHT AND VRB AS THE FRNT STALLS AND REMAINS IN THE VICINITY
THRU FRI. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT AND SEAS AVG 2-4 FT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
SUB-SCA CONDS CONTINUING.

&&

.CLIMATE...

AT NORFOLK:
*AVG TEMPERATURE OF 78.7 F RANKS AS THE 7TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
*TOTAL PRECIPITATION OF 8.34" RANKS AS 5TH WETTEST ON RECORD.

AT RICHMOND:
*AVG TEMPERATURE OF 77.92 F RANKS AS THE 8TH WARMEST ON RECORD.

PRECIPITATION TOTAL OF 6.05" DID NOT ATTAIN A TOP 10 RANKING AT
RIC AIRPORT...BUT MANY LOCATIONS IN THE METRO AREA...RECEIVED IN
EXCESS OF 10.00 INCHES FOR THE MONTH.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/SAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...LKB




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011611
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1211 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
DROPS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT THEN BECOMES STATIONARY
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG
THE FRONT LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY SHOWS EARLIER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING
WELL OFF TO THE NE OF THE LOCAL AREA AS OF 16Z...LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF CU DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR. THERE IS SOME HAZE PERSISTING OVER
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE FA HOWEVER. WHILE WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO THE AFTN AND WILL KEEP THE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FAIRLY STABLE...THERE IS THE PRESENCE OF A
WEAK SFC TROUGH TO THE LEE OF THE MTNS. THUS...WILL CARRY 20% POPS
LATE (AFTER 20Z) OVER THE PIEDMONT...KEEPING A DRY FORECAST
ELSEWHERE THROUGH 22Z. 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 16-17C SHOULD SUPPORT
SEASONABLY WARM HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 F (WITH A FEW OF
THE TYPICALLY HOTTEST SPOTS POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 90S). WESTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW IS BRINGING A MODEST REPRIEVE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS
(DEW PTS INTO THE LWR- MID 60S).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. OVERALL...THE 00Z/01
NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH RESPECT TO SHOWERS/TSTMS ACCOMPANYING
THE BOUNDARY...WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE EITHER DRY OR INDICATE ONLY
ISO ACTIVITY. THERE IS SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER FORCING WILL
REMAIN WELL W OF THE REGION...SO WILL ONLY FORECAST A 20% POP WITH
THE BOUNDARY. INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE REGION THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DEVELOP A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER ERN NC AS ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER UPPER WAVE LOCATES OVER THE MID MS
VALLEY. 20-30% POPS THURSDAY MORNING INCREASE TO 40-50% POPS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/ EVENING OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC...THEN TO ~60%
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. PWATS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO
2+ INCHES THURSDAY NIGHT IN DEEP LAYER SW FLOW. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE
IN CONCERT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING ALONG THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE BOUNDARY AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION FRIDAY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-MS VALLEY LOW APPROACHES FROM THE W.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIKELY POPS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY. DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL (UP TO 600% OF NORMAL THIS PAST
WEEK)...MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AND CONTINUES TO BE HEADLINED
IN THE HWO. 72 HR RAINFALL TOTALS AVERAGE BETWEEN 1.0-1.5
IN...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

FORECAST HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AREA GENERALLY ON THE LOW-SIDE
OF GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE ANY
PERIODS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGHS THURSDAY RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S
NW...TO THE UPPER 80S SE...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS FRIDAY RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 70S NW...TO THE MID 80S FAR SE. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPSTREAM BLOCKING PATTERN RESULTS IN LITTLE MOVEMENT OF OVERALL
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THRU THE HOLIDAY WKEND / MED RANGE PERIOD.

MODELS STALL WAVY FRONTAL BNDRY ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC REGION SAT.
GFS WANTS TO PUSH THIS BNDRY INTO NORTH CAROLINA SUN AS WEAK HIGH
PRS BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WHILE ECMWF KEEPS THE
BNDRY NEARLY STNRY ACROSS THE RGN. THE BNDRY PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRNT MONDAY WITH A TROF LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
THUS LOOK FOR CHC POPS EACH DAY AS TIMING OF ANY ONE DISTURBANCE
RATHER PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT.

HIGHS SAT / SUN IN THE M-U80S...85-90 MON / TUE. LOWS U60S-M70S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THRU THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. S/SW FLOW ~10 KT CONTINUES TDA
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT. EXPECT MAINLY HI CLOUDS...WITH
SHRAS/TSTMS PSBL THIS AFTN/EVENG THOUGH CHANCES ARE NOT HI ENUF TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK...A FRONTAL SYSTM WILL DROP INTO THE AREA THU AND LINGER
THROUGH SUNDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE CONVECTION.
THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS EACH DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES THU NIGHT AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA OVER THE BAY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THRU 7 AM AS WINDS THERE CONTINUE
TO GUST TO ~20-25 KT ERLY THIS MORNG. WINDS WILL THEN RELAX THRU THE
DAY AS A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FM THE NW. EXPECT 10-15 KT S WINDS
THIS AFTN WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVER THE BAY AND 2-4 FT SEAS OVER CSTL
WTRS. THE FRNT DROPS INTO THE AREA FM THE NW ON THU...WITH WINDS
BCMG LIGHT AND VRB AS THE FRNT STALLS AND REMAINS IN THE VICINITY
THRU FRI. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT AND SEAS AVG 2-4 FT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
SUB-SCA CONDS CONTINUING.

&&

.CLIMATE...

AT NORFOLK:
*AVG TEMPERATURE OF 78.7 F RANKS AS THE 7TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
*TOTAL PRECIPITATION OF 8.34" RANKS AS 5TH WETTEST ON RECORD.

AT RICHMOND:
*AVG TEMPERATURE OF 77.92 F RANKS AS THE 8TH WARMEST ON RECORD.

PRECIPITATION TOTAL OF 6.05" DID NOT ATTAIN A TOP 10 RANKING AT
RIC AIRPORT...BUT MANY LOCATIONS IN THE METRO AREA...RECEIVED IN
EXCESS OF 10.00 INCHES FOR THE MONTH.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/SAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...LKB




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011611
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1211 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
DROPS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT THEN BECOMES STATIONARY
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG
THE FRONT LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY SHOWS EARLIER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING
WELL OFF TO THE NE OF THE LOCAL AREA AS OF 16Z...LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF CU DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR. THERE IS SOME HAZE PERSISTING OVER
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE FA HOWEVER. WHILE WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO THE AFTN AND WILL KEEP THE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FAIRLY STABLE...THERE IS THE PRESENCE OF A
WEAK SFC TROUGH TO THE LEE OF THE MTNS. THUS...WILL CARRY 20% POPS
LATE (AFTER 20Z) OVER THE PIEDMONT...KEEPING A DRY FORECAST
ELSEWHERE THROUGH 22Z. 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 16-17C SHOULD SUPPORT
SEASONABLY WARM HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 F (WITH A FEW OF
THE TYPICALLY HOTTEST SPOTS POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 90S). WESTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW IS BRINGING A MODEST REPRIEVE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS
(DEW PTS INTO THE LWR- MID 60S).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. OVERALL...THE 00Z/01
NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH RESPECT TO SHOWERS/TSTMS ACCOMPANYING
THE BOUNDARY...WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE EITHER DRY OR INDICATE ONLY
ISO ACTIVITY. THERE IS SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER FORCING WILL
REMAIN WELL W OF THE REGION...SO WILL ONLY FORECAST A 20% POP WITH
THE BOUNDARY. INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE REGION THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DEVELOP A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER ERN NC AS ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER UPPER WAVE LOCATES OVER THE MID MS
VALLEY. 20-30% POPS THURSDAY MORNING INCREASE TO 40-50% POPS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/ EVENING OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC...THEN TO ~60%
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. PWATS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO
2+ INCHES THURSDAY NIGHT IN DEEP LAYER SW FLOW. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE
IN CONCERT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING ALONG THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE BOUNDARY AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION FRIDAY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-MS VALLEY LOW APPROACHES FROM THE W.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIKELY POPS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY. DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL (UP TO 600% OF NORMAL THIS PAST
WEEK)...MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AND CONTINUES TO BE HEADLINED
IN THE HWO. 72 HR RAINFALL TOTALS AVERAGE BETWEEN 1.0-1.5
IN...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

FORECAST HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AREA GENERALLY ON THE LOW-SIDE
OF GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE ANY
PERIODS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGHS THURSDAY RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S
NW...TO THE UPPER 80S SE...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS FRIDAY RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 70S NW...TO THE MID 80S FAR SE. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPSTREAM BLOCKING PATTERN RESULTS IN LITTLE MOVEMENT OF OVERALL
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THRU THE HOLIDAY WKEND / MED RANGE PERIOD.

MODELS STALL WAVY FRONTAL BNDRY ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC REGION SAT.
GFS WANTS TO PUSH THIS BNDRY INTO NORTH CAROLINA SUN AS WEAK HIGH
PRS BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WHILE ECMWF KEEPS THE
BNDRY NEARLY STNRY ACROSS THE RGN. THE BNDRY PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRNT MONDAY WITH A TROF LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
THUS LOOK FOR CHC POPS EACH DAY AS TIMING OF ANY ONE DISTURBANCE
RATHER PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT.

HIGHS SAT / SUN IN THE M-U80S...85-90 MON / TUE. LOWS U60S-M70S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THRU THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. S/SW FLOW ~10 KT CONTINUES TDA
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT. EXPECT MAINLY HI CLOUDS...WITH
SHRAS/TSTMS PSBL THIS AFTN/EVENG THOUGH CHANCES ARE NOT HI ENUF TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK...A FRONTAL SYSTM WILL DROP INTO THE AREA THU AND LINGER
THROUGH SUNDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE CONVECTION.
THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS EACH DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES THU NIGHT AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA OVER THE BAY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THRU 7 AM AS WINDS THERE CONTINUE
TO GUST TO ~20-25 KT ERLY THIS MORNG. WINDS WILL THEN RELAX THRU THE
DAY AS A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FM THE NW. EXPECT 10-15 KT S WINDS
THIS AFTN WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVER THE BAY AND 2-4 FT SEAS OVER CSTL
WTRS. THE FRNT DROPS INTO THE AREA FM THE NW ON THU...WITH WINDS
BCMG LIGHT AND VRB AS THE FRNT STALLS AND REMAINS IN THE VICINITY
THRU FRI. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT AND SEAS AVG 2-4 FT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
SUB-SCA CONDS CONTINUING.

&&

.CLIMATE...

AT NORFOLK:
*AVG TEMPERATURE OF 78.7 F RANKS AS THE 7TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
*TOTAL PRECIPITATION OF 8.34" RANKS AS 5TH WETTEST ON RECORD.

AT RICHMOND:
*AVG TEMPERATURE OF 77.92 F RANKS AS THE 8TH WARMEST ON RECORD.

PRECIPITATION TOTAL OF 6.05" DID NOT ATTAIN A TOP 10 RANKING AT
RIC AIRPORT...BUT MANY LOCATIONS IN THE METRO AREA...RECEIVED IN
EXCESS OF 10.00 INCHES FOR THE MONTH.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/SAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...LKB




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011611
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1211 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
DROPS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT THEN BECOMES STATIONARY
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG
THE FRONT LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY SHOWS EARLIER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING
WELL OFF TO THE NE OF THE LOCAL AREA AS OF 16Z...LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF CU DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR. THERE IS SOME HAZE PERSISTING OVER
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE FA HOWEVER. WHILE WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO THE AFTN AND WILL KEEP THE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FAIRLY STABLE...THERE IS THE PRESENCE OF A
WEAK SFC TROUGH TO THE LEE OF THE MTNS. THUS...WILL CARRY 20% POPS
LATE (AFTER 20Z) OVER THE PIEDMONT...KEEPING A DRY FORECAST
ELSEWHERE THROUGH 22Z. 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 16-17C SHOULD SUPPORT
SEASONABLY WARM HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 F (WITH A FEW OF
THE TYPICALLY HOTTEST SPOTS POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 90S). WESTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW IS BRINGING A MODEST REPRIEVE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS
(DEW PTS INTO THE LWR- MID 60S).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. OVERALL...THE 00Z/01
NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH RESPECT TO SHOWERS/TSTMS ACCOMPANYING
THE BOUNDARY...WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE EITHER DRY OR INDICATE ONLY
ISO ACTIVITY. THERE IS SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER FORCING WILL
REMAIN WELL W OF THE REGION...SO WILL ONLY FORECAST A 20% POP WITH
THE BOUNDARY. INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE REGION THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DEVELOP A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER ERN NC AS ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER UPPER WAVE LOCATES OVER THE MID MS
VALLEY. 20-30% POPS THURSDAY MORNING INCREASE TO 40-50% POPS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/ EVENING OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC...THEN TO ~60%
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. PWATS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO
2+ INCHES THURSDAY NIGHT IN DEEP LAYER SW FLOW. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE
IN CONCERT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING ALONG THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE BOUNDARY AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION FRIDAY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-MS VALLEY LOW APPROACHES FROM THE W.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIKELY POPS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY. DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL (UP TO 600% OF NORMAL THIS PAST
WEEK)...MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AND CONTINUES TO BE HEADLINED
IN THE HWO. 72 HR RAINFALL TOTALS AVERAGE BETWEEN 1.0-1.5
IN...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

FORECAST HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AREA GENERALLY ON THE LOW-SIDE
OF GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE ANY
PERIODS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGHS THURSDAY RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S
NW...TO THE UPPER 80S SE...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS FRIDAY RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 70S NW...TO THE MID 80S FAR SE. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPSTREAM BLOCKING PATTERN RESULTS IN LITTLE MOVEMENT OF OVERALL
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THRU THE HOLIDAY WKEND / MED RANGE PERIOD.

MODELS STALL WAVY FRONTAL BNDRY ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC REGION SAT.
GFS WANTS TO PUSH THIS BNDRY INTO NORTH CAROLINA SUN AS WEAK HIGH
PRS BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WHILE ECMWF KEEPS THE
BNDRY NEARLY STNRY ACROSS THE RGN. THE BNDRY PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRNT MONDAY WITH A TROF LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
THUS LOOK FOR CHC POPS EACH DAY AS TIMING OF ANY ONE DISTURBANCE
RATHER PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT.

HIGHS SAT / SUN IN THE M-U80S...85-90 MON / TUE. LOWS U60S-M70S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THRU THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. S/SW FLOW ~10 KT CONTINUES TDA
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT. EXPECT MAINLY HI CLOUDS...WITH
SHRAS/TSTMS PSBL THIS AFTN/EVENG THOUGH CHANCES ARE NOT HI ENUF TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK...A FRONTAL SYSTM WILL DROP INTO THE AREA THU AND LINGER
THROUGH SUNDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE CONVECTION.
THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS EACH DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES THU NIGHT AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA OVER THE BAY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THRU 7 AM AS WINDS THERE CONTINUE
TO GUST TO ~20-25 KT ERLY THIS MORNG. WINDS WILL THEN RELAX THRU THE
DAY AS A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FM THE NW. EXPECT 10-15 KT S WINDS
THIS AFTN WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVER THE BAY AND 2-4 FT SEAS OVER CSTL
WTRS. THE FRNT DROPS INTO THE AREA FM THE NW ON THU...WITH WINDS
BCMG LIGHT AND VRB AS THE FRNT STALLS AND REMAINS IN THE VICINITY
THRU FRI. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT AND SEAS AVG 2-4 FT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
SUB-SCA CONDS CONTINUING.

&&

.CLIMATE...

AT NORFOLK:
*AVG TEMPERATURE OF 78.7 F RANKS AS THE 7TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
*TOTAL PRECIPITATION OF 8.34" RANKS AS 5TH WETTEST ON RECORD.

AT RICHMOND:
*AVG TEMPERATURE OF 77.92 F RANKS AS THE 8TH WARMEST ON RECORD.

PRECIPITATION TOTAL OF 6.05" DID NOT ATTAIN A TOP 10 RANKING AT
RIC AIRPORT...BUT MANY LOCATIONS IN THE METRO AREA...RECEIVED IN
EXCESS OF 10.00 INCHES FOR THE MONTH.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/SAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...LKB




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011611
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1211 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
DROPS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT THEN BECOMES STATIONARY
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG
THE FRONT LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY SHOWS EARLIER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING
WELL OFF TO THE NE OF THE LOCAL AREA AS OF 16Z...LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF CU DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR. THERE IS SOME HAZE PERSISTING OVER
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE FA HOWEVER. WHILE WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO THE AFTN AND WILL KEEP THE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FAIRLY STABLE...THERE IS THE PRESENCE OF A
WEAK SFC TROUGH TO THE LEE OF THE MTNS. THUS...WILL CARRY 20% POPS
LATE (AFTER 20Z) OVER THE PIEDMONT...KEEPING A DRY FORECAST
ELSEWHERE THROUGH 22Z. 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 16-17C SHOULD SUPPORT
SEASONABLY WARM HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 F (WITH A FEW OF
THE TYPICALLY HOTTEST SPOTS POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 90S). WESTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW IS BRINGING A MODEST REPRIEVE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS
(DEW PTS INTO THE LWR- MID 60S).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. OVERALL...THE 00Z/01
NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH RESPECT TO SHOWERS/TSTMS ACCOMPANYING
THE BOUNDARY...WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE EITHER DRY OR INDICATE ONLY
ISO ACTIVITY. THERE IS SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER FORCING WILL
REMAIN WELL W OF THE REGION...SO WILL ONLY FORECAST A 20% POP WITH
THE BOUNDARY. INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE REGION THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DEVELOP A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER ERN NC AS ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER UPPER WAVE LOCATES OVER THE MID MS
VALLEY. 20-30% POPS THURSDAY MORNING INCREASE TO 40-50% POPS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/ EVENING OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC...THEN TO ~60%
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. PWATS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO
2+ INCHES THURSDAY NIGHT IN DEEP LAYER SW FLOW. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE
IN CONCERT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING ALONG THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE BOUNDARY AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION FRIDAY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-MS VALLEY LOW APPROACHES FROM THE W.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIKELY POPS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY. DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL (UP TO 600% OF NORMAL THIS PAST
WEEK)...MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AND CONTINUES TO BE HEADLINED
IN THE HWO. 72 HR RAINFALL TOTALS AVERAGE BETWEEN 1.0-1.5
IN...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

FORECAST HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AREA GENERALLY ON THE LOW-SIDE
OF GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE ANY
PERIODS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGHS THURSDAY RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S
NW...TO THE UPPER 80S SE...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS FRIDAY RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 70S NW...TO THE MID 80S FAR SE. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPSTREAM BLOCKING PATTERN RESULTS IN LITTLE MOVEMENT OF OVERALL
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THRU THE HOLIDAY WKEND / MED RANGE PERIOD.

MODELS STALL WAVY FRONTAL BNDRY ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC REGION SAT.
GFS WANTS TO PUSH THIS BNDRY INTO NORTH CAROLINA SUN AS WEAK HIGH
PRS BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WHILE ECMWF KEEPS THE
BNDRY NEARLY STNRY ACROSS THE RGN. THE BNDRY PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRNT MONDAY WITH A TROF LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
THUS LOOK FOR CHC POPS EACH DAY AS TIMING OF ANY ONE DISTURBANCE
RATHER PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT.

HIGHS SAT / SUN IN THE M-U80S...85-90 MON / TUE. LOWS U60S-M70S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THRU THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. S/SW FLOW ~10 KT CONTINUES TDA
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT. EXPECT MAINLY HI CLOUDS...WITH
SHRAS/TSTMS PSBL THIS AFTN/EVENG THOUGH CHANCES ARE NOT HI ENUF TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK...A FRONTAL SYSTM WILL DROP INTO THE AREA THU AND LINGER
THROUGH SUNDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE CONVECTION.
THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS EACH DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES THU NIGHT AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA OVER THE BAY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THRU 7 AM AS WINDS THERE CONTINUE
TO GUST TO ~20-25 KT ERLY THIS MORNG. WINDS WILL THEN RELAX THRU THE
DAY AS A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FM THE NW. EXPECT 10-15 KT S WINDS
THIS AFTN WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVER THE BAY AND 2-4 FT SEAS OVER CSTL
WTRS. THE FRNT DROPS INTO THE AREA FM THE NW ON THU...WITH WINDS
BCMG LIGHT AND VRB AS THE FRNT STALLS AND REMAINS IN THE VICINITY
THRU FRI. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT AND SEAS AVG 2-4 FT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
SUB-SCA CONDS CONTINUING.

&&

.CLIMATE...

AT NORFOLK:
*AVG TEMPERATURE OF 78.7 F RANKS AS THE 7TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
*TOTAL PRECIPITATION OF 8.34" RANKS AS 5TH WETTEST ON RECORD.

AT RICHMOND:
*AVG TEMPERATURE OF 77.92 F RANKS AS THE 8TH WARMEST ON RECORD.

PRECIPITATION TOTAL OF 6.05" DID NOT ATTAIN A TOP 10 RANKING AT
RIC AIRPORT...BUT MANY LOCATIONS IN THE METRO AREA...RECEIVED IN
EXCESS OF 10.00 INCHES FOR THE MONTH.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/SAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...LKB



000
FXUS61 KLWX 011436 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1036 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY.
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SEVERAL
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ALONG IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY. INSTABILITY OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED COVERAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE DC/BALTIMORE METRO AREAS.
SEVERE THREAT IS MINIMAL ATTM. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...LOWER
80S TO THE WEST.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE 60S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT LOWER 70S IN THE METROS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...REACHING
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL DRAW SOME MOISTURE
INTO THE FRONT OVER OUR REGION. STILL SOME TIMING/PLACEMENT
DIFFERENCES AMONGST MODELS...BUT EXPECT A S TO N PROGRESSION OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER (AT LEAST SOME INSTBY MAY BE
PRESENT...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN TIER). QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH IF ANY
PRECIP REACHES THE M-D LINE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY LIKELY STAYS OVER OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED DOWN A FEW DEGREES BY THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIP...UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS...WITH DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ABOUT THE PATH AND TIMING OF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS RIDING EAST ALONG THE FRONT. SOME GUIDANCE
LIKE THE GFS BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE EUROPEAN IN
CONTRAST IS NOTABLY SLOWER...WITH THE MAIN WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WAITING UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA. THE
CANADIAN GGEM IS EVEN SLOWER...HOLDING THE MOST SIGNIFICANT LOW
BACK EVEN LONGER. WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE...SO KEPT CHANCE TO
LOW- END LIKELY POPS AND TEMPS SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN NORMAL
IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ABOUT THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED SIGNIFICANT TIMING DISCREPANCIES REGARDING
PASSING DISTURBANCES BETWEEN VARIOUS MODELS. THIS MAKES ANY
ATTEMPT TO IRON OUT DETAILS VERY DIFFICULT. THE ONE CONSTANT IS
THE APPARENTLY NEVER LEAVING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. INHERITED
GENERALLY CHANCE POPS THRU THE PERIOD AND DID NOT MAKE MAJOR
CHANGES. TEMPS START OUT BELOW NORMAL AND *MAY* RISE TO NEAR
NORMAL IF THE FRONT CAN FINALLY NUDGE ITS WAY NORTH OF US EARLY
NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A FEW ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY
FROM KBWI AND KMTN TO KDCA AND KCHO. VFR TONIGHT...PERHAPS SOME
PATCHY FOG IN SPOTS.

NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY...WITH GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS AT CHO.

FROM THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD...MAIN CONCERN IS POSSIBLE IFR CIGS AND
VIS FROM OCCASIONAL HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AS A FRONT
REMAINS STALLED IN THE GENERAL AREA. WITH THE FRONT NEARBY...WINDS
WILL BE HARD TO PREDICT WITH SIGNIFICANT CERTAINTY UNTIL THE
PERIOD DRAWS CLOSER.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS BELOW SCA EXPECTED MUCH OF TODAY. A FEW ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER A PORTION OF THE
WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED FOR MARINE IS OCCASIONAL HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH APPEARS POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT EVERY
DAY FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE
SUB SCA BUT AS DISTURBANCES PASS THRU THE AREA...A PERIOD OF SCA
WINDS IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...ADS/RCM
LONG TERM...RCM
AVIATION...RCM/KRW
MARINE...RCM/KRW



000
FXUS61 KLWX 011436 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1036 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY.
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SEVERAL
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ALONG IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY. INSTABILITY OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED COVERAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE DC/BALTIMORE METRO AREAS.
SEVERE THREAT IS MINIMAL ATTM. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...LOWER
80S TO THE WEST.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE 60S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT LOWER 70S IN THE METROS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...REACHING
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL DRAW SOME MOISTURE
INTO THE FRONT OVER OUR REGION. STILL SOME TIMING/PLACEMENT
DIFFERENCES AMONGST MODELS...BUT EXPECT A S TO N PROGRESSION OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER (AT LEAST SOME INSTBY MAY BE
PRESENT...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN TIER). QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH IF ANY
PRECIP REACHES THE M-D LINE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY LIKELY STAYS OVER OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED DOWN A FEW DEGREES BY THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIP...UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS...WITH DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ABOUT THE PATH AND TIMING OF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS RIDING EAST ALONG THE FRONT. SOME GUIDANCE
LIKE THE GFS BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE EUROPEAN IN
CONTRAST IS NOTABLY SLOWER...WITH THE MAIN WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WAITING UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA. THE
CANADIAN GGEM IS EVEN SLOWER...HOLDING THE MOST SIGNIFICANT LOW
BACK EVEN LONGER. WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE...SO KEPT CHANCE TO
LOW- END LIKELY POPS AND TEMPS SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN NORMAL
IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ABOUT THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED SIGNIFICANT TIMING DISCREPANCIES REGARDING
PASSING DISTURBANCES BETWEEN VARIOUS MODELS. THIS MAKES ANY
ATTEMPT TO IRON OUT DETAILS VERY DIFFICULT. THE ONE CONSTANT IS
THE APPARENTLY NEVER LEAVING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. INHERITED
GENERALLY CHANCE POPS THRU THE PERIOD AND DID NOT MAKE MAJOR
CHANGES. TEMPS START OUT BELOW NORMAL AND *MAY* RISE TO NEAR
NORMAL IF THE FRONT CAN FINALLY NUDGE ITS WAY NORTH OF US EARLY
NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A FEW ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY
FROM KBWI AND KMTN TO KDCA AND KCHO. VFR TONIGHT...PERHAPS SOME
PATCHY FOG IN SPOTS.

NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY...WITH GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS AT CHO.

FROM THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD...MAIN CONCERN IS POSSIBLE IFR CIGS AND
VIS FROM OCCASIONAL HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AS A FRONT
REMAINS STALLED IN THE GENERAL AREA. WITH THE FRONT NEARBY...WINDS
WILL BE HARD TO PREDICT WITH SIGNIFICANT CERTAINTY UNTIL THE
PERIOD DRAWS CLOSER.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS BELOW SCA EXPECTED MUCH OF TODAY. A FEW ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER A PORTION OF THE
WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED FOR MARINE IS OCCASIONAL HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH APPEARS POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT EVERY
DAY FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE
SUB SCA BUT AS DISTURBANCES PASS THRU THE AREA...A PERIOD OF SCA
WINDS IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...ADS/RCM
LONG TERM...RCM
AVIATION...RCM/KRW
MARINE...RCM/KRW




000
FXUS61 KLWX 011436 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1036 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY.
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SEVERAL
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ALONG IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY. INSTABILITY OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED COVERAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE DC/BALTIMORE METRO AREAS.
SEVERE THREAT IS MINIMAL ATTM. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...LOWER
80S TO THE WEST.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE 60S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT LOWER 70S IN THE METROS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...REACHING
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL DRAW SOME MOISTURE
INTO THE FRONT OVER OUR REGION. STILL SOME TIMING/PLACEMENT
DIFFERENCES AMONGST MODELS...BUT EXPECT A S TO N PROGRESSION OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER (AT LEAST SOME INSTBY MAY BE
PRESENT...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN TIER). QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH IF ANY
PRECIP REACHES THE M-D LINE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY LIKELY STAYS OVER OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED DOWN A FEW DEGREES BY THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIP...UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS...WITH DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ABOUT THE PATH AND TIMING OF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS RIDING EAST ALONG THE FRONT. SOME GUIDANCE
LIKE THE GFS BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE EUROPEAN IN
CONTRAST IS NOTABLY SLOWER...WITH THE MAIN WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WAITING UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA. THE
CANADIAN GGEM IS EVEN SLOWER...HOLDING THE MOST SIGNIFICANT LOW
BACK EVEN LONGER. WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE...SO KEPT CHANCE TO
LOW- END LIKELY POPS AND TEMPS SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN NORMAL
IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ABOUT THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED SIGNIFICANT TIMING DISCREPANCIES REGARDING
PASSING DISTURBANCES BETWEEN VARIOUS MODELS. THIS MAKES ANY
ATTEMPT TO IRON OUT DETAILS VERY DIFFICULT. THE ONE CONSTANT IS
THE APPARENTLY NEVER LEAVING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. INHERITED
GENERALLY CHANCE POPS THRU THE PERIOD AND DID NOT MAKE MAJOR
CHANGES. TEMPS START OUT BELOW NORMAL AND *MAY* RISE TO NEAR
NORMAL IF THE FRONT CAN FINALLY NUDGE ITS WAY NORTH OF US EARLY
NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A FEW ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY
FROM KBWI AND KMTN TO KDCA AND KCHO. VFR TONIGHT...PERHAPS SOME
PATCHY FOG IN SPOTS.

NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY...WITH GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS AT CHO.

FROM THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD...MAIN CONCERN IS POSSIBLE IFR CIGS AND
VIS FROM OCCASIONAL HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AS A FRONT
REMAINS STALLED IN THE GENERAL AREA. WITH THE FRONT NEARBY...WINDS
WILL BE HARD TO PREDICT WITH SIGNIFICANT CERTAINTY UNTIL THE
PERIOD DRAWS CLOSER.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS BELOW SCA EXPECTED MUCH OF TODAY. A FEW ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER A PORTION OF THE
WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED FOR MARINE IS OCCASIONAL HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH APPEARS POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT EVERY
DAY FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE
SUB SCA BUT AS DISTURBANCES PASS THRU THE AREA...A PERIOD OF SCA
WINDS IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...ADS/RCM
LONG TERM...RCM
AVIATION...RCM/KRW
MARINE...RCM/KRW



000
FXUS61 KLWX 011436 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1036 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY.
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SEVERAL
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ALONG IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY. INSTABILITY OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED COVERAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE DC/BALTIMORE METRO AREAS.
SEVERE THREAT IS MINIMAL ATTM. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...LOWER
80S TO THE WEST.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE 60S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT LOWER 70S IN THE METROS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...REACHING
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL DRAW SOME MOISTURE
INTO THE FRONT OVER OUR REGION. STILL SOME TIMING/PLACEMENT
DIFFERENCES AMONGST MODELS...BUT EXPECT A S TO N PROGRESSION OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER (AT LEAST SOME INSTBY MAY BE
PRESENT...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN TIER). QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH IF ANY
PRECIP REACHES THE M-D LINE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY LIKELY STAYS OVER OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED DOWN A FEW DEGREES BY THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIP...UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS...WITH DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ABOUT THE PATH AND TIMING OF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS RIDING EAST ALONG THE FRONT. SOME GUIDANCE
LIKE THE GFS BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE EUROPEAN IN
CONTRAST IS NOTABLY SLOWER...WITH THE MAIN WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WAITING UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA. THE
CANADIAN GGEM IS EVEN SLOWER...HOLDING THE MOST SIGNIFICANT LOW
BACK EVEN LONGER. WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE...SO KEPT CHANCE TO
LOW- END LIKELY POPS AND TEMPS SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN NORMAL
IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ABOUT THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED SIGNIFICANT TIMING DISCREPANCIES REGARDING
PASSING DISTURBANCES BETWEEN VARIOUS MODELS. THIS MAKES ANY
ATTEMPT TO IRON OUT DETAILS VERY DIFFICULT. THE ONE CONSTANT IS
THE APPARENTLY NEVER LEAVING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. INHERITED
GENERALLY CHANCE POPS THRU THE PERIOD AND DID NOT MAKE MAJOR
CHANGES. TEMPS START OUT BELOW NORMAL AND *MAY* RISE TO NEAR
NORMAL IF THE FRONT CAN FINALLY NUDGE ITS WAY NORTH OF US EARLY
NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A FEW ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY
FROM KBWI AND KMTN TO KDCA AND KCHO. VFR TONIGHT...PERHAPS SOME
PATCHY FOG IN SPOTS.

NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY...WITH GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS AT CHO.

FROM THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD...MAIN CONCERN IS POSSIBLE IFR CIGS AND
VIS FROM OCCASIONAL HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AS A FRONT
REMAINS STALLED IN THE GENERAL AREA. WITH THE FRONT NEARBY...WINDS
WILL BE HARD TO PREDICT WITH SIGNIFICANT CERTAINTY UNTIL THE
PERIOD DRAWS CLOSER.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS BELOW SCA EXPECTED MUCH OF TODAY. A FEW ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER A PORTION OF THE
WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED FOR MARINE IS OCCASIONAL HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH APPEARS POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT EVERY
DAY FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE
SUB SCA BUT AS DISTURBANCES PASS THRU THE AREA...A PERIOD OF SCA
WINDS IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...ADS/RCM
LONG TERM...RCM
AVIATION...RCM/KRW
MARINE...RCM/KRW




000
FXUS61 KPHI 011350
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
950 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. A COLD
FRONT FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SHOULD THEN MOVE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF OUR
REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG IT. A SECOND COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOR SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT SHOULD
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT REACHING
THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MORNING SHOWERS HAVE LEFT OUR REGION AND WE SHOULD HAVE A LULL IN
THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH MID DAY. HOWEVER, AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATER IN THE DAY AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA, SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN HALF.

HIGHS TODAY ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE AND MIXED 925 MB
ECMWF TEMPERATURES.

PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN BY MID DAY, THUS A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINDS
GUSTING AROUND 20-25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, WHILE THE
SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY ALOFT FOLLOWS ALONG. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING, BEFORE
THEY DIMINISH AND MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD.
THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD BE RAIN FREE BY MIDNIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND STALLS OUT THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA,
THERE WILL REMAIN SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES SLIDING
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH, BUT THERE WILL REMAIN THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA.

HIGHS THURSDAY ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE AND MIXED 925
MB ECMWF TEMPERATURES. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET
MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WRF-NMMB LOOKED BETTER AT 500MB AND 850MB WITH AN EQUAL SPLIT
AT 925MB. THIS CASTS SOME DOUBT ON THE GFS SOLUTION FOR THE LONG
TERM. THERE REMAINS BOTH A TIMING AND LATITUDINAL SPLIT WITH THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WITH THE GFS SLOWEST AND FARTHEST NORTH.
THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME FEEDBACK VORTS WITH THE GFS AND THE GEFS
PCPN MEAN IS LOWER THAN THE OP. REGARDLESS ONGOING SVR AND FLOODING
HAS MADE US LEAN HEAVILY ON PMDHMD (ECMWF PREFERENCE) AND WPC FOR
THE LONG TERM.

FRIDAY, WE ARE KEEPING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
OUR CWA. MAX TEMPS HIGHER THAN MEX GUIDANCE, BUT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

PRESERVATION OF CONTINUITY WE KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. HERE THE ECMWF IS MORE PESSIMISTIC. SUNDAY
CONTINUES TO BE THE CONSENSUS BETTER WEEKEND DAY WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHED FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.

THE RETURNING WARM FRONT SHOULD THEN BRING PCPN CHANCES BACK ON
MONDAY AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT PROVIDING AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE
COME TUESDAY.

UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGHER THAN AVERAGE, BUT TEMPERATURES FAVOR AT
OR COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH A RETURN OF MORE
WARMER AND HUMID WEATHER FOR THE BACK END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A FEW AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL QUICKLY LIFT OUT OF THE ARE THIS
MORNING LEADING TO MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY
ACROSS THE AREA, BUT CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF AT
THIS TIME.

SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
ALSO GUST 15-20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE THE GUSTS DROP OFF
AROUND SUNSET AND BECOME MORE WEST-NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WINDS MAY
ACTUALLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MANY AREAS OVERNIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FOR THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT, BUT THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME LIGHT FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT SOME MVFR OR
IFR CONDITIONS DURING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IMPACT
OUTLOOKED TO BE GREATER FOR SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SEAS ARE AROUND 4
FEET EARLY THIS MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 5 FEET
THROUGH THE DAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE BAY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED AS WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS MIGHT
REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN
AVERAGE.

SUNDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
BASED ON OUR LOCAL FORECAST APPLICATION USING A 5 FOOT WAVES/7
SECOND PERIOD AND SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 12 KNOTS, WE WILL CONTINUE
WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR NEW JERSEY AND LOW FOR
DELAWARE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RAINFALL FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE RANKED IN THE TOP 5 OF THE AVAILABLE
RELIABLE HISTORICAL DATABASE.

WILMINGTON #2 12.52. THE WETTEST WAS 13.66 IN 2013 AND THE TOP 4
WETTEST JUNES OCCURRED SINCE 2003. THE PERIOD OF RECORD (POR)
DATES BACK TO 1894.

ALLENTOWN #5 7.59 INCHES. THE WETTEST 10.51 IN 1938. POR TO 1922.
10.51 1938 THREE OF THE WETTEST JUNES OCCURRED SINCE 2003
9.13 2006
8.58 1972
8.30 2003
7.59 2015

ATLANTIC CITY #2 8.36 INCHES. THE WETTEST 8.45 INCHES 1920. POR
1874.

PHILADELPHIA #3 8.88 INCHES. THE WETTEST 10.56 2013, #2 IS 10.06
IN 1938. THREE OF 4 WETTEST JUNES OCCURRED SINCE 2003.


TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE IN OUR FORECAST AREA GENERALLY
AVERAGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...DRAG



000
FXUS61 KPHI 011350
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
950 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. A COLD
FRONT FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SHOULD THEN MOVE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF OUR
REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG IT. A SECOND COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOR SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT SHOULD
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT REACHING
THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MORNING SHOWERS HAVE LEFT OUR REGION AND WE SHOULD HAVE A LULL IN
THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH MID DAY. HOWEVER, AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATER IN THE DAY AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA, SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN HALF.

HIGHS TODAY ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE AND MIXED 925 MB
ECMWF TEMPERATURES.

PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN BY MID DAY, THUS A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINDS
GUSTING AROUND 20-25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, WHILE THE
SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY ALOFT FOLLOWS ALONG. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING, BEFORE
THEY DIMINISH AND MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD.
THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD BE RAIN FREE BY MIDNIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND STALLS OUT THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA,
THERE WILL REMAIN SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES SLIDING
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH, BUT THERE WILL REMAIN THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA.

HIGHS THURSDAY ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE AND MIXED 925
MB ECMWF TEMPERATURES. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET
MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WRF-NMMB LOOKED BETTER AT 500MB AND 850MB WITH AN EQUAL SPLIT
AT 925MB. THIS CASTS SOME DOUBT ON THE GFS SOLUTION FOR THE LONG
TERM. THERE REMAINS BOTH A TIMING AND LATITUDINAL SPLIT WITH THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WITH THE GFS SLOWEST AND FARTHEST NORTH.
THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME FEEDBACK VORTS WITH THE GFS AND THE GEFS
PCPN MEAN IS LOWER THAN THE OP. REGARDLESS ONGOING SVR AND FLOODING
HAS MADE US LEAN HEAVILY ON PMDHMD (ECMWF PREFERENCE) AND WPC FOR
THE LONG TERM.

FRIDAY, WE ARE KEEPING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
OUR CWA. MAX TEMPS HIGHER THAN MEX GUIDANCE, BUT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

PRESERVATION OF CONTINUITY WE KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. HERE THE ECMWF IS MORE PESSIMISTIC. SUNDAY
CONTINUES TO BE THE CONSENSUS BETTER WEEKEND DAY WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHED FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.

THE RETURNING WARM FRONT SHOULD THEN BRING PCPN CHANCES BACK ON
MONDAY AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT PROVIDING AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE
COME TUESDAY.

UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGHER THAN AVERAGE, BUT TEMPERATURES FAVOR AT
OR COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH A RETURN OF MORE
WARMER AND HUMID WEATHER FOR THE BACK END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A FEW AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL QUICKLY LIFT OUT OF THE ARE THIS
MORNING LEADING TO MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY
ACROSS THE AREA, BUT CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF AT
THIS TIME.

SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
ALSO GUST 15-20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE THE GUSTS DROP OFF
AROUND SUNSET AND BECOME MORE WEST-NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WINDS MAY
ACTUALLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MANY AREAS OVERNIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FOR THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT, BUT THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME LIGHT FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT SOME MVFR OR
IFR CONDITIONS DURING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IMPACT
OUTLOOKED TO BE GREATER FOR SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SEAS ARE AROUND 4
FEET EARLY THIS MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 5 FEET
THROUGH THE DAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE BAY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED AS WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS MIGHT
REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN
AVERAGE.

SUNDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
BASED ON OUR LOCAL FORECAST APPLICATION USING A 5 FOOT WAVES/7
SECOND PERIOD AND SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 12 KNOTS, WE WILL CONTINUE
WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR NEW JERSEY AND LOW FOR
DELAWARE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RAINFALL FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE RANKED IN THE TOP 5 OF THE AVAILABLE
RELIABLE HISTORICAL DATABASE.

WILMINGTON #2 12.52. THE WETTEST WAS 13.66 IN 2013 AND THE TOP 4
WETTEST JUNES OCCURRED SINCE 2003. THE PERIOD OF RECORD (POR)
DATES BACK TO 1894.

ALLENTOWN #5 7.59 INCHES. THE WETTEST 10.51 IN 1938. POR TO 1922.
10.51 1938 THREE OF THE WETTEST JUNES OCCURRED SINCE 2003
9.13 2006
8.58 1972
8.30 2003
7.59 2015

ATLANTIC CITY #2 8.36 INCHES. THE WETTEST 8.45 INCHES 1920. POR
1874.

PHILADELPHIA #3 8.88 INCHES. THE WETTEST 10.56 2013, #2 IS 10.06
IN 1938. THREE OF 4 WETTEST JUNES OCCURRED SINCE 2003.


TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE IN OUR FORECAST AREA GENERALLY
AVERAGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...DRAG




000
FXUS61 KPHI 011350
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
950 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. A COLD
FRONT FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SHOULD THEN MOVE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF OUR
REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG IT. A SECOND COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOR SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT SHOULD
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT REACHING
THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MORNING SHOWERS HAVE LEFT OUR REGION AND WE SHOULD HAVE A LULL IN
THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH MID DAY. HOWEVER, AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATER IN THE DAY AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA, SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN HALF.

HIGHS TODAY ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE AND MIXED 925 MB
ECMWF TEMPERATURES.

PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN BY MID DAY, THUS A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINDS
GUSTING AROUND 20-25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, WHILE THE
SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY ALOFT FOLLOWS ALONG. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING, BEFORE
THEY DIMINISH AND MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD.
THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD BE RAIN FREE BY MIDNIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND STALLS OUT THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA,
THERE WILL REMAIN SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES SLIDING
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH, BUT THERE WILL REMAIN THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA.

HIGHS THURSDAY ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE AND MIXED 925
MB ECMWF TEMPERATURES. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET
MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WRF-NMMB LOOKED BETTER AT 500MB AND 850MB WITH AN EQUAL SPLIT
AT 925MB. THIS CASTS SOME DOUBT ON THE GFS SOLUTION FOR THE LONG
TERM. THERE REMAINS BOTH A TIMING AND LATITUDINAL SPLIT WITH THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WITH THE GFS SLOWEST AND FARTHEST NORTH.
THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME FEEDBACK VORTS WITH THE GFS AND THE GEFS
PCPN MEAN IS LOWER THAN THE OP. REGARDLESS ONGOING SVR AND FLOODING
HAS MADE US LEAN HEAVILY ON PMDHMD (ECMWF PREFERENCE) AND WPC FOR
THE LONG TERM.

FRIDAY, WE ARE KEEPING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
OUR CWA. MAX TEMPS HIGHER THAN MEX GUIDANCE, BUT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

PRESERVATION OF CONTINUITY WE KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. HERE THE ECMWF IS MORE PESSIMISTIC. SUNDAY
CONTINUES TO BE THE CONSENSUS BETTER WEEKEND DAY WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHED FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.

THE RETURNING WARM FRONT SHOULD THEN BRING PCPN CHANCES BACK ON
MONDAY AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT PROVIDING AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE
COME TUESDAY.

UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGHER THAN AVERAGE, BUT TEMPERATURES FAVOR AT
OR COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH A RETURN OF MORE
WARMER AND HUMID WEATHER FOR THE BACK END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A FEW AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL QUICKLY LIFT OUT OF THE ARE THIS
MORNING LEADING TO MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY
ACROSS THE AREA, BUT CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF AT
THIS TIME.

SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
ALSO GUST 15-20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE THE GUSTS DROP OFF
AROUND SUNSET AND BECOME MORE WEST-NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WINDS MAY
ACTUALLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MANY AREAS OVERNIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FOR THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT, BUT THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME LIGHT FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT SOME MVFR OR
IFR CONDITIONS DURING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IMPACT
OUTLOOKED TO BE GREATER FOR SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SEAS ARE AROUND 4
FEET EARLY THIS MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 5 FEET
THROUGH THE DAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE BAY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED AS WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS MIGHT
REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN
AVERAGE.

SUNDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
BASED ON OUR LOCAL FORECAST APPLICATION USING A 5 FOOT WAVES/7
SECOND PERIOD AND SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 12 KNOTS, WE WILL CONTINUE
WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR NEW JERSEY AND LOW FOR
DELAWARE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RAINFALL FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE RANKED IN THE TOP 5 OF THE AVAILABLE
RELIABLE HISTORICAL DATABASE.

WILMINGTON #2 12.52. THE WETTEST WAS 13.66 IN 2013 AND THE TOP 4
WETTEST JUNES OCCURRED SINCE 2003. THE PERIOD OF RECORD (POR)
DATES BACK TO 1894.

ALLENTOWN #5 7.59 INCHES. THE WETTEST 10.51 IN 1938. POR TO 1922.
10.51 1938 THREE OF THE WETTEST JUNES OCCURRED SINCE 2003
9.13 2006
8.58 1972
8.30 2003
7.59 2015

ATLANTIC CITY #2 8.36 INCHES. THE WETTEST 8.45 INCHES 1920. POR
1874.

PHILADELPHIA #3 8.88 INCHES. THE WETTEST 10.56 2013, #2 IS 10.06
IN 1938. THREE OF 4 WETTEST JUNES OCCURRED SINCE 2003.


TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE IN OUR FORECAST AREA GENERALLY
AVERAGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...DRAG




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011341
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
941 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBED PATTERN WILL KEEP SOME RAIN IN THE FORECAST...BUT THE
TREND IS TOWARD DRIER WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID-MORNING UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS UP FOR PORTIONS NORTH OF I-80.
RETURNS ON RADAR HAVE BEEN SCATTERED IN NATURE AND THE HI-RES
MODEL SUITE HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. FOLLOWED THIER TREND OF
PUSHING THE SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
CONSIDERABLE DRYING DISSIPATES THEM COMPLETELY.

ELSEWHERE...THE LOW STRATUS THAT HAS GRIPPED THE AREA THIS MORNING
IS BEGINNING TO LIFT AND IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF DETERIORATION.
THIS PROCESS...LIKE THE LAST SEVERAL MORNINGS...WILL TAKE THROUGH
MIDDAY...EVENTUALLY MIXING THE STRATUS INTO STRATOCU WITH BREAKS
OF SUNSHINE. AS THE DRIER AIR WORKS IN THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES
WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AND A PLEASANT EVENING LOOKS TO BE ON
TAP. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL VALUES
THROUGH TONIGHT.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE A SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT PLOUGHS
SUFFICIENTLY SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO INITIATE SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE I 70
CORRIDOR...WITH PRECIP PROBABILITIES INCREASING NORTHWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A TRAILING DISTURBANCE AMPLIFIES THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE REGION.

THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WAS THUS RADICALLY CHANGED AND NOW
INCLUDES LIKELY POPS FOR AREAS FROM PIT SOUTHWARD...ALL BASED ON
A BLEND OF SREF...AND THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC TREND OF GFS AND
NAM.

TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST JUST UNDER THE SEASONAL AVERAGES GIVEN
THE PERSISTENT TROUGHING ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA WILL LINGER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. BY SUNDAY NIGHT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT
MAY FINALLY SHIFT OUT OF THE REGION...BRINGING A BRIEF DRY SPELL
TO ALL LOCATIONS. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
GFS/ECMWF HAVE VASTLY DIFFERENT TIMING FOR WHEN THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WOULD CROSS THE REGION...WITH THE ECMWF MUCH FASTER
WITH THE FRONT. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH TIMING SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF...PRIMARILY BECAUSE MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE IN
BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CREEP
UP A FEW DEGREES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW STRATUS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF DECAY...BUT TRANSITION FROM
IFR/MVFR STRATUS TO MVFR/VFR STRATOCU WILL BE GRADUAL WITH SOME
LOCATIONS IMPROVING QUIKER THAN OTHERS.

SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...PRIMARILY NORTH OF
I-80 CORRIDOR. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF VCSH IN FKL/DUJ TAFS FOR
THE TIME BEING. COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR
TWO...BUT CONFIDENCE IN IMPACT TO FKL/DUJ IS LOW. ANOTHER ROUND
OF IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
RESTRICTIONS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011341
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
941 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBED PATTERN WILL KEEP SOME RAIN IN THE FORECAST...BUT THE
TREND IS TOWARD DRIER WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID-MORNING UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS UP FOR PORTIONS NORTH OF I-80.
RETURNS ON RADAR HAVE BEEN SCATTERED IN NATURE AND THE HI-RES
MODEL SUITE HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. FOLLOWED THIER TREND OF
PUSHING THE SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
CONSIDERABLE DRYING DISSIPATES THEM COMPLETELY.

ELSEWHERE...THE LOW STRATUS THAT HAS GRIPPED THE AREA THIS MORNING
IS BEGINNING TO LIFT AND IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF DETERIORATION.
THIS PROCESS...LIKE THE LAST SEVERAL MORNINGS...WILL TAKE THROUGH
MIDDAY...EVENTUALLY MIXING THE STRATUS INTO STRATOCU WITH BREAKS
OF SUNSHINE. AS THE DRIER AIR WORKS IN THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES
WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AND A PLEASANT EVENING LOOKS TO BE ON
TAP. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL VALUES
THROUGH TONIGHT.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE A SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT PLOUGHS
SUFFICIENTLY SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO INITIATE SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE I 70
CORRIDOR...WITH PRECIP PROBABILITIES INCREASING NORTHWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A TRAILING DISTURBANCE AMPLIFIES THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE REGION.

THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WAS THUS RADICALLY CHANGED AND NOW
INCLUDES LIKELY POPS FOR AREAS FROM PIT SOUTHWARD...ALL BASED ON
A BLEND OF SREF...AND THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC TREND OF GFS AND
NAM.

TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST JUST UNDER THE SEASONAL AVERAGES GIVEN
THE PERSISTENT TROUGHING ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA WILL LINGER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. BY SUNDAY NIGHT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT
MAY FINALLY SHIFT OUT OF THE REGION...BRINGING A BRIEF DRY SPELL
TO ALL LOCATIONS. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
GFS/ECMWF HAVE VASTLY DIFFERENT TIMING FOR WHEN THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WOULD CROSS THE REGION...WITH THE ECMWF MUCH FASTER
WITH THE FRONT. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH TIMING SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF...PRIMARILY BECAUSE MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE IN
BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CREEP
UP A FEW DEGREES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW STRATUS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF DECAY...BUT TRANSITION FROM
IFR/MVFR STRATUS TO MVFR/VFR STRATOCU WILL BE GRADUAL WITH SOME
LOCATIONS IMPROVING QUIKER THAN OTHERS.

SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...PRIMARILY NORTH OF
I-80 CORRIDOR. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF VCSH IN FKL/DUJ TAFS FOR
THE TIME BEING. COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR
TWO...BUT CONFIDENCE IN IMPACT TO FKL/DUJ IS LOW. ANOTHER ROUND
OF IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
RESTRICTIONS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011341
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
941 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBED PATTERN WILL KEEP SOME RAIN IN THE FORECAST...BUT THE
TREND IS TOWARD DRIER WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID-MORNING UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS UP FOR PORTIONS NORTH OF I-80.
RETURNS ON RADAR HAVE BEEN SCATTERED IN NATURE AND THE HI-RES
MODEL SUITE HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. FOLLOWED THIER TREND OF
PUSHING THE SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
CONSIDERABLE DRYING DISSIPATES THEM COMPLETELY.

ELSEWHERE...THE LOW STRATUS THAT HAS GRIPPED THE AREA THIS MORNING
IS BEGINNING TO LIFT AND IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF DETERIORATION.
THIS PROCESS...LIKE THE LAST SEVERAL MORNINGS...WILL TAKE THROUGH
MIDDAY...EVENTUALLY MIXING THE STRATUS INTO STRATOCU WITH BREAKS
OF SUNSHINE. AS THE DRIER AIR WORKS IN THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES
WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AND A PLEASANT EVENING LOOKS TO BE ON
TAP. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL VALUES
THROUGH TONIGHT.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE A SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT PLOUGHS
SUFFICIENTLY SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO INITIATE SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE I 70
CORRIDOR...WITH PRECIP PROBABILITIES INCREASING NORTHWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A TRAILING DISTURBANCE AMPLIFIES THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE REGION.

THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WAS THUS RADICALLY CHANGED AND NOW
INCLUDES LIKELY POPS FOR AREAS FROM PIT SOUTHWARD...ALL BASED ON
A BLEND OF SREF...AND THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC TREND OF GFS AND
NAM.

TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST JUST UNDER THE SEASONAL AVERAGES GIVEN
THE PERSISTENT TROUGHING ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA WILL LINGER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. BY SUNDAY NIGHT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT
MAY FINALLY SHIFT OUT OF THE REGION...BRINGING A BRIEF DRY SPELL
TO ALL LOCATIONS. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
GFS/ECMWF HAVE VASTLY DIFFERENT TIMING FOR WHEN THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WOULD CROSS THE REGION...WITH THE ECMWF MUCH FASTER
WITH THE FRONT. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH TIMING SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF...PRIMARILY BECAUSE MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE IN
BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CREEP
UP A FEW DEGREES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW STRATUS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF DECAY...BUT TRANSITION FROM
IFR/MVFR STRATUS TO MVFR/VFR STRATOCU WILL BE GRADUAL WITH SOME
LOCATIONS IMPROVING QUIKER THAN OTHERS.

SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...PRIMARILY NORTH OF
I-80 CORRIDOR. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF VCSH IN FKL/DUJ TAFS FOR
THE TIME BEING. COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR
TWO...BUT CONFIDENCE IN IMPACT TO FKL/DUJ IS LOW. ANOTHER ROUND
OF IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
RESTRICTIONS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011341
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
941 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBED PATTERN WILL KEEP SOME RAIN IN THE FORECAST...BUT THE
TREND IS TOWARD DRIER WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID-MORNING UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS UP FOR PORTIONS NORTH OF I-80.
RETURNS ON RADAR HAVE BEEN SCATTERED IN NATURE AND THE HI-RES
MODEL SUITE HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. FOLLOWED THIER TREND OF
PUSHING THE SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
CONSIDERABLE DRYING DISSIPATES THEM COMPLETELY.

ELSEWHERE...THE LOW STRATUS THAT HAS GRIPPED THE AREA THIS MORNING
IS BEGINNING TO LIFT AND IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF DETERIORATION.
THIS PROCESS...LIKE THE LAST SEVERAL MORNINGS...WILL TAKE THROUGH
MIDDAY...EVENTUALLY MIXING THE STRATUS INTO STRATOCU WITH BREAKS
OF SUNSHINE. AS THE DRIER AIR WORKS IN THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES
WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AND A PLEASANT EVENING LOOKS TO BE ON
TAP. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL VALUES
THROUGH TONIGHT.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE A SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT PLOUGHS
SUFFICIENTLY SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO INITIATE SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE I 70
CORRIDOR...WITH PRECIP PROBABILITIES INCREASING NORTHWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A TRAILING DISTURBANCE AMPLIFIES THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE REGION.

THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WAS THUS RADICALLY CHANGED AND NOW
INCLUDES LIKELY POPS FOR AREAS FROM PIT SOUTHWARD...ALL BASED ON
A BLEND OF SREF...AND THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC TREND OF GFS AND
NAM.

TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST JUST UNDER THE SEASONAL AVERAGES GIVEN
THE PERSISTENT TROUGHING ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA WILL LINGER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. BY SUNDAY NIGHT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT
MAY FINALLY SHIFT OUT OF THE REGION...BRINGING A BRIEF DRY SPELL
TO ALL LOCATIONS. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
GFS/ECMWF HAVE VASTLY DIFFERENT TIMING FOR WHEN THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WOULD CROSS THE REGION...WITH THE ECMWF MUCH FASTER
WITH THE FRONT. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH TIMING SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF...PRIMARILY BECAUSE MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE IN
BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CREEP
UP A FEW DEGREES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW STRATUS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF DECAY...BUT TRANSITION FROM
IFR/MVFR STRATUS TO MVFR/VFR STRATOCU WILL BE GRADUAL WITH SOME
LOCATIONS IMPROVING QUIKER THAN OTHERS.

SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...PRIMARILY NORTH OF
I-80 CORRIDOR. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF VCSH IN FKL/DUJ TAFS FOR
THE TIME BEING. COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR
TWO...BUT CONFIDENCE IN IMPACT TO FKL/DUJ IS LOW. ANOTHER ROUND
OF IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
RESTRICTIONS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011341
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
941 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBED PATTERN WILL KEEP SOME RAIN IN THE FORECAST...BUT THE
TREND IS TOWARD DRIER WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID-MORNING UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS UP FOR PORTIONS NORTH OF I-80.
RETURNS ON RADAR HAVE BEEN SCATTERED IN NATURE AND THE HI-RES
MODEL SUITE HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. FOLLOWED THIER TREND OF
PUSHING THE SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
CONSIDERABLE DRYING DISSIPATES THEM COMPLETELY.

ELSEWHERE...THE LOW STRATUS THAT HAS GRIPPED THE AREA THIS MORNING
IS BEGINNING TO LIFT AND IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF DETERIORATION.
THIS PROCESS...LIKE THE LAST SEVERAL MORNINGS...WILL TAKE THROUGH
MIDDAY...EVENTUALLY MIXING THE STRATUS INTO STRATOCU WITH BREAKS
OF SUNSHINE. AS THE DRIER AIR WORKS IN THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES
WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AND A PLEASANT EVENING LOOKS TO BE ON
TAP. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL VALUES
THROUGH TONIGHT.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE A SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT PLOUGHS
SUFFICIENTLY SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO INITIATE SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE I 70
CORRIDOR...WITH PRECIP PROBABILITIES INCREASING NORTHWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A TRAILING DISTURBANCE AMPLIFIES THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE REGION.

THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WAS THUS RADICALLY CHANGED AND NOW
INCLUDES LIKELY POPS FOR AREAS FROM PIT SOUTHWARD...ALL BASED ON
A BLEND OF SREF...AND THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC TREND OF GFS AND
NAM.

TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST JUST UNDER THE SEASONAL AVERAGES GIVEN
THE PERSISTENT TROUGHING ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA WILL LINGER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. BY SUNDAY NIGHT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT
MAY FINALLY SHIFT OUT OF THE REGION...BRINGING A BRIEF DRY SPELL
TO ALL LOCATIONS. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
GFS/ECMWF HAVE VASTLY DIFFERENT TIMING FOR WHEN THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WOULD CROSS THE REGION...WITH THE ECMWF MUCH FASTER
WITH THE FRONT. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH TIMING SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF...PRIMARILY BECAUSE MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE IN
BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CREEP
UP A FEW DEGREES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW STRATUS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF DECAY...BUT TRANSITION FROM
IFR/MVFR STRATUS TO MVFR/VFR STRATOCU WILL BE GRADUAL WITH SOME
LOCATIONS IMPROVING QUIKER THAN OTHERS.

SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...PRIMARILY NORTH OF
I-80 CORRIDOR. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF VCSH IN FKL/DUJ TAFS FOR
THE TIME BEING. COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR
TWO...BUT CONFIDENCE IN IMPACT TO FKL/DUJ IS LOW. ANOTHER ROUND
OF IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
RESTRICTIONS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPHI 011233
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
833 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. A COLD
FRONT FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SHOULD THEN MOVE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF OUR
REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG IT. A SECOND COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOR SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT SHOULD
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT REACHING
THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA HAS LIFTED TO OUR
NORTHEAST. THERE WILL REMAIN SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING, BUT THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED, SO WE HAVE CANCELLED THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

AFTER THE MORNING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OUT AND END, THE REST
OF THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON MAY SEE A BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER IN THE DAY
AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA,
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA, ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN HALF.

HIGHS TODAY ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE AND MIXED 925 MB
ECMWF TEMPERATURES.

WINDS DURING THE DAY WILL ALSO GUST AROUND 20-25 MPH.

WE ARE EXPECTED TO PERFORM STORM SURVEYS TODAY AFTER 9 AM IN CHESTER
COUNTY AND THE LEHIGH VALLEY TO INVESTIGATE THE POSSIBILITY OF
TORNADO OCCURRENCES ON TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, WHILE THE
SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY ALOFT FOLLOWS ALONG. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING, BEFORE
THEY DIMINISH AND MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD.
THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD BE RAIN FREE BY MIDNIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND STALLS OUT THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA,
THERE WILL REMAIN SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES SLIDING
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH, BUT THERE WILL REMAIN THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA.

HIGHS THURSDAY ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE AND MIXED 925
MB ECMWF TEMPERATURES. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET
MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WRF-NMMB LOOKED BETTER AT 500MB AND 850MB WITH AN EQUAL SPLIT
AT 925MB. THIS CASTS SOME DOUBT ON THE GFS SOLUTION FOR THE LONG
TERM. THERE REMAINS BOTH A TIMING AND LATITUDINAL SPLIT WITH THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WITH THE GFS SLOWEST AND FARTHEST NORTH.
THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME FEEDBACK VORTS WITH THE GFS AND THE GEFS
PCPN MEAN IS LOWER THAN THE OP. REGARDLESS ONGOING SVR AND FLOODING
HAS MADE US LEAN HEAVILY ON PMDHMD (ECMWF PREFERENCE) AND WPC FOR
THE LONG TERM.

FRIDAY, WE ARE KEEPING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
OUR CWA. MAX TEMPS HIGHER THAN MEX GUIDANCE, BUT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

PRESERVATION OF CONTINUITY WE KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. HERE THE ECMWF IS MORE PESSIMISTIC. SUNDAY
CONTINUES TO BE THE CONSENSUS BETTER WEEKEND DAY WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHED FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.

THE RETURNING WARM FRONT SHOULD THEN BRING PCPN CHANCES BACK ON
MONDAY AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT PROVIDING AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE
COME TUESDAY.

UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGHER THAN AVERAGE, BUT TEMPERATURES FAVOR AT
OR COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH A RETURN OF MORE
WARMER AND HUMID WEATHER FOR THE BACK END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LIFTED TO OUR NORTHEAST AND
CONDITIONS HAVE MOSTLY IMPROVED TO VFR. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG
IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AROUND AND SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
HOWEVER, AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES, ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL
BURN OFF AND A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY.

SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
ALSO GUST 15-20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE THE GUSTS DROP OFF
AROUND SUNSET AND BECOME MORE WEST-NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WINDS MAY
ACTUALLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MANY AREAS OVERNIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FOR THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT, BUT THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME LIGHT FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT SOME MVFR OR
IFR CONDITIONS DURING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IMPACT
OUTLOOKED TO BE GREATER FOR SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SEAS ARE AROUND 4
FEET EARLY THIS MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 5 FEET
THROUGH THE DAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR
DELAWARE BAY AS WINDS ARE GUSTING AROUND 25 KNOTS THIS MORNING.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING, SO WE WILL RUN THIS ONE
THROUGH 11 AM.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS MIGHT
REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN
AVERAGE.

SUNDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
BASED ON OUR LOCAL FORECAST APPLICATION USING A 5 FOOT WAVES/7
SECOND PERIOD AND SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 12 KNOTS, WE WILL CONTINUE
WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR NEW JERSEY AND LOW FOR
DELAWARE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RAINFALL FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE RANKED IN THE TOP 5 OF THE AVAILABLE
RELIABLE HISTORICAL DATABASE.

WILMINGTON #2 12.52. THE WETTEST WAS 13.66 IN 2013 AND THE TOP 4
WETTEST JUNES OCCURRED SINCE 2003. THE PERIOD OF RECORD (POR)
DATES BACK TO 1894.

ALLENTOWN #5 7.59 INCHES. THE WETTEST 10.51 IN 1938. POR TO 1922.
10.51 1938 THREE OF THE WETTEST JUNES OCCURRED SINCE 2003
9.13 2006
8.58 1972
8.30 2003
7.59 2015

ATLANTIC CITY #2 8.36 INCHES. THE WETTEST 8.45 INCHES 1920. POR
1874.

PHILADELPHIA #3 8.88 INCHES. THE WETTEST 10.56 2013, #2 IS 10.06
IN 1938. THREE OF 4 WETTEST JUNES OCCURRED SINCE 2003.


TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE IN OUR FORECAST AREA GENERALLY
AVERAGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
PCPN MEASURER ERROR AT KPHL, ESTIMATED AMOUNT OF 1.5" ON 6/30
MAY BE ADJUSTED LATER TODAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...833A
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011107
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
707 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND DROPS INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT THEN BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT
LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST. 1006MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER LAKE
ONTARIO...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING BACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SE TODAY...BUT REMAIN N OF THE
LOCAL AREA. SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY...WHICH
WILL KEEP THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE STABLE. GIVEN THIS...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. 850MB
TEMPERATURES OF 16-18C SHOULD SUPPORT SEASONABLY WARM HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. A MODEST REPRIEVE IN HUMIDITY IS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY INLAND AS DEWPOINTS DROP TO 60-65F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. OVERALL...THE 00Z/01
NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH RESPECT TO SHOWERS/TSTMS ACCOMPANYING
THE BOUNDARY...WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE EITHER DRY OR INDICATE ONLY
ISO ACTIVITY. THERE IS SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER FORCING WILL
REMAIN WELL W OF THE REGION...SO WILL ONLY FORECAST A 20% POP WITH
THE BOUNDARY. INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE REGION THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DEVELOP A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER ERN NC AS ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER UPPER WAVE LOCATES OVER THE MID MS
VALLEY. 20-30% POPS THURSDAY MORNING INCREASE TO 40-50% POPS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/ EVENING OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC...THEN TO ~60%
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. PWATS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO
2+ INCHES THURSDAY NIGHT IN DEEP LAYER SW FLOW. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE
IN CONCERT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING ALONG THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE BOUNDARY AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION FRIDAY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-MS VALLEY LOW APPROACHES FROM THE W.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIKELY POPS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY. DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL (UP TO 600% OF NORMAL THIS PAST
WEEK)...MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AND CONTINUES TO BE HEADLINED
IN THE HWO. 72 HR RAINFALL TOTALS AVERAGE BETWEEN 1.0-1.5
IN...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

FORECAST HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AREA GENERALLY ON THE LOW-SIDE
OF GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE ANY
PERIODS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGHS THURSDAY RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S
NW...TO THE UPPER 80S SE...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS FRIDAY RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 70S NW...TO THE MID 80S FAR SE. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPSTREAM BLOCKING PATTERN RESULTS IN LITTLE MOVEMENT OF OVERALL
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THRU THE HOLIDAY WKEND / MED RANGE PERIOD.

MODELS STALL WAVY FRONTAL BNDRY ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC REGION SAT.
GFS WANTS TO PUSH THIS BNDRY INTO NORTH CAROLINA SUN AS WEAK HIGH
PRS BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WHILE ECMWF KEEPS THE
BNDRY NEARLY STNRY ACROSS THE RGN. THE BNDRY PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRNT MONDAY WITH A TROF LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
THUS LOOK FOR CHC POPS EACH DAY AS TIMING OF ANY ONE DISTURBANCE
RATHER PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT.

HIGHS SAT / SUN IN THE M-U80S...85-90 MON / TUE. LOWS U60S-M70S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THRU THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. S/SW FLOW ~10 KT CONTINUES TDA
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT. EXPECT MAINLY HI CLOUDS...WITH
SHRAS/TSTMS PSBL THIS AFTN/EVENG THOUGH CHANCES ARE NOT HI ENUF TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK...A FRONTAL SYSTM WILL DROP INTO THE AREA THU AND LINGER
THROUGH SUNDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE CONVECTION.
THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS EACH DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES THU NIGHT AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA OVER THE BAY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THRU 7 AM AS WINDS THERE CONTINUE
TO GUST TO ~20-25 KT ERLY THIS MORNG. WINDS WILL THEN RELAX THRU THE
DAY AS A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FM THE NW. EXPECT 10-15 KT S WINDS
THIS AFTN WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVER THE BAY AND 2-4 FT SEAS OVER CSTL
WTRS. THE FRNT DROPS INTO THE AREA FM THE NW ON THU...WITH WINDS
BCMG LIGHT AND VRB AS THE FRNT STALLS AND REMAINS IN THE VICINITY
THRU FRI. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT AND SEAS AVG 2-4 FT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
SUB-SCA CONDS CONTINUING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/SAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011107
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
707 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND DROPS INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT THEN BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT
LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST. 1006MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER LAKE
ONTARIO...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING BACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SE TODAY...BUT REMAIN N OF THE
LOCAL AREA. SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY...WHICH
WILL KEEP THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE STABLE. GIVEN THIS...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. 850MB
TEMPERATURES OF 16-18C SHOULD SUPPORT SEASONABLY WARM HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. A MODEST REPRIEVE IN HUMIDITY IS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY INLAND AS DEWPOINTS DROP TO 60-65F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. OVERALL...THE 00Z/01
NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH RESPECT TO SHOWERS/TSTMS ACCOMPANYING
THE BOUNDARY...WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE EITHER DRY OR INDICATE ONLY
ISO ACTIVITY. THERE IS SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER FORCING WILL
REMAIN WELL W OF THE REGION...SO WILL ONLY FORECAST A 20% POP WITH
THE BOUNDARY. INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE REGION THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DEVELOP A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER ERN NC AS ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER UPPER WAVE LOCATES OVER THE MID MS
VALLEY. 20-30% POPS THURSDAY MORNING INCREASE TO 40-50% POPS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/ EVENING OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC...THEN TO ~60%
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. PWATS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO
2+ INCHES THURSDAY NIGHT IN DEEP LAYER SW FLOW. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE
IN CONCERT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING ALONG THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE BOUNDARY AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION FRIDAY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-MS VALLEY LOW APPROACHES FROM THE W.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIKELY POPS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY. DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL (UP TO 600% OF NORMAL THIS PAST
WEEK)...MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AND CONTINUES TO BE HEADLINED
IN THE HWO. 72 HR RAINFALL TOTALS AVERAGE BETWEEN 1.0-1.5
IN...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

FORECAST HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AREA GENERALLY ON THE LOW-SIDE
OF GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE ANY
PERIODS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGHS THURSDAY RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S
NW...TO THE UPPER 80S SE...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS FRIDAY RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 70S NW...TO THE MID 80S FAR SE. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPSTREAM BLOCKING PATTERN RESULTS IN LITTLE MOVEMENT OF OVERALL
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THRU THE HOLIDAY WKEND / MED RANGE PERIOD.

MODELS STALL WAVY FRONTAL BNDRY ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC REGION SAT.
GFS WANTS TO PUSH THIS BNDRY INTO NORTH CAROLINA SUN AS WEAK HIGH
PRS BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WHILE ECMWF KEEPS THE
BNDRY NEARLY STNRY ACROSS THE RGN. THE BNDRY PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRNT MONDAY WITH A TROF LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
THUS LOOK FOR CHC POPS EACH DAY AS TIMING OF ANY ONE DISTURBANCE
RATHER PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT.

HIGHS SAT / SUN IN THE M-U80S...85-90 MON / TUE. LOWS U60S-M70S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THRU THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. S/SW FLOW ~10 KT CONTINUES TDA
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT. EXPECT MAINLY HI CLOUDS...WITH
SHRAS/TSTMS PSBL THIS AFTN/EVENG THOUGH CHANCES ARE NOT HI ENUF TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK...A FRONTAL SYSTM WILL DROP INTO THE AREA THU AND LINGER
THROUGH SUNDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE CONVECTION.
THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS EACH DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES THU NIGHT AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA OVER THE BAY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THRU 7 AM AS WINDS THERE CONTINUE
TO GUST TO ~20-25 KT ERLY THIS MORNG. WINDS WILL THEN RELAX THRU THE
DAY AS A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FM THE NW. EXPECT 10-15 KT S WINDS
THIS AFTN WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVER THE BAY AND 2-4 FT SEAS OVER CSTL
WTRS. THE FRNT DROPS INTO THE AREA FM THE NW ON THU...WITH WINDS
BCMG LIGHT AND VRB AS THE FRNT STALLS AND REMAINS IN THE VICINITY
THRU FRI. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT AND SEAS AVG 2-4 FT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
SUB-SCA CONDS CONTINUING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/SAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011107
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
707 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND DROPS INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT THEN BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT
LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST. 1006MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER LAKE
ONTARIO...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING BACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SE TODAY...BUT REMAIN N OF THE
LOCAL AREA. SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY...WHICH
WILL KEEP THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE STABLE. GIVEN THIS...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. 850MB
TEMPERATURES OF 16-18C SHOULD SUPPORT SEASONABLY WARM HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. A MODEST REPRIEVE IN HUMIDITY IS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY INLAND AS DEWPOINTS DROP TO 60-65F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. OVERALL...THE 00Z/01
NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH RESPECT TO SHOWERS/TSTMS ACCOMPANYING
THE BOUNDARY...WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE EITHER DRY OR INDICATE ONLY
ISO ACTIVITY. THERE IS SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER FORCING WILL
REMAIN WELL W OF THE REGION...SO WILL ONLY FORECAST A 20% POP WITH
THE BOUNDARY. INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE REGION THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DEVELOP A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER ERN NC AS ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER UPPER WAVE LOCATES OVER THE MID MS
VALLEY. 20-30% POPS THURSDAY MORNING INCREASE TO 40-50% POPS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/ EVENING OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC...THEN TO ~60%
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. PWATS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO
2+ INCHES THURSDAY NIGHT IN DEEP LAYER SW FLOW. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE
IN CONCERT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING ALONG THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE BOUNDARY AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION FRIDAY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-MS VALLEY LOW APPROACHES FROM THE W.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIKELY POPS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY. DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL (UP TO 600% OF NORMAL THIS PAST
WEEK)...MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AND CONTINUES TO BE HEADLINED
IN THE HWO. 72 HR RAINFALL TOTALS AVERAGE BETWEEN 1.0-1.5
IN...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

FORECAST HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AREA GENERALLY ON THE LOW-SIDE
OF GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE ANY
PERIODS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGHS THURSDAY RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S
NW...TO THE UPPER 80S SE...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS FRIDAY RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 70S NW...TO THE MID 80S FAR SE. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPSTREAM BLOCKING PATTERN RESULTS IN LITTLE MOVEMENT OF OVERALL
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THRU THE HOLIDAY WKEND / MED RANGE PERIOD.

MODELS STALL WAVY FRONTAL BNDRY ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC REGION SAT.
GFS WANTS TO PUSH THIS BNDRY INTO NORTH CAROLINA SUN AS WEAK HIGH
PRS BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WHILE ECMWF KEEPS THE
BNDRY NEARLY STNRY ACROSS THE RGN. THE BNDRY PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRNT MONDAY WITH A TROF LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
THUS LOOK FOR CHC POPS EACH DAY AS TIMING OF ANY ONE DISTURBANCE
RATHER PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT.

HIGHS SAT / SUN IN THE M-U80S...85-90 MON / TUE. LOWS U60S-M70S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THRU THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. S/SW FLOW ~10 KT CONTINUES TDA
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT. EXPECT MAINLY HI CLOUDS...WITH
SHRAS/TSTMS PSBL THIS AFTN/EVENG THOUGH CHANCES ARE NOT HI ENUF TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK...A FRONTAL SYSTM WILL DROP INTO THE AREA THU AND LINGER
THROUGH SUNDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE CONVECTION.
THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS EACH DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES THU NIGHT AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA OVER THE BAY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THRU 7 AM AS WINDS THERE CONTINUE
TO GUST TO ~20-25 KT ERLY THIS MORNG. WINDS WILL THEN RELAX THRU THE
DAY AS A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FM THE NW. EXPECT 10-15 KT S WINDS
THIS AFTN WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVER THE BAY AND 2-4 FT SEAS OVER CSTL
WTRS. THE FRNT DROPS INTO THE AREA FM THE NW ON THU...WITH WINDS
BCMG LIGHT AND VRB AS THE FRNT STALLS AND REMAINS IN THE VICINITY
THRU FRI. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT AND SEAS AVG 2-4 FT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
SUB-SCA CONDS CONTINUING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/SAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011107
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
707 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND DROPS INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT THEN BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT
LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST. 1006MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER LAKE
ONTARIO...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING BACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SE TODAY...BUT REMAIN N OF THE
LOCAL AREA. SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY...WHICH
WILL KEEP THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE STABLE. GIVEN THIS...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. 850MB
TEMPERATURES OF 16-18C SHOULD SUPPORT SEASONABLY WARM HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. A MODEST REPRIEVE IN HUMIDITY IS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY INLAND AS DEWPOINTS DROP TO 60-65F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. OVERALL...THE 00Z/01
NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH RESPECT TO SHOWERS/TSTMS ACCOMPANYING
THE BOUNDARY...WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE EITHER DRY OR INDICATE ONLY
ISO ACTIVITY. THERE IS SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER FORCING WILL
REMAIN WELL W OF THE REGION...SO WILL ONLY FORECAST A 20% POP WITH
THE BOUNDARY. INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE REGION THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DEVELOP A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER ERN NC AS ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER UPPER WAVE LOCATES OVER THE MID MS
VALLEY. 20-30% POPS THURSDAY MORNING INCREASE TO 40-50% POPS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/ EVENING OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC...THEN TO ~60%
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. PWATS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO
2+ INCHES THURSDAY NIGHT IN DEEP LAYER SW FLOW. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE
IN CONCERT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING ALONG THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE BOUNDARY AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION FRIDAY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-MS VALLEY LOW APPROACHES FROM THE W.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIKELY POPS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY. DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL (UP TO 600% OF NORMAL THIS PAST
WEEK)...MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AND CONTINUES TO BE HEADLINED
IN THE HWO. 72 HR RAINFALL TOTALS AVERAGE BETWEEN 1.0-1.5
IN...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

FORECAST HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AREA GENERALLY ON THE LOW-SIDE
OF GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE ANY
PERIODS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGHS THURSDAY RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S
NW...TO THE UPPER 80S SE...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS FRIDAY RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 70S NW...TO THE MID 80S FAR SE. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPSTREAM BLOCKING PATTERN RESULTS IN LITTLE MOVEMENT OF OVERALL
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THRU THE HOLIDAY WKEND / MED RANGE PERIOD.

MODELS STALL WAVY FRONTAL BNDRY ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC REGION SAT.
GFS WANTS TO PUSH THIS BNDRY INTO NORTH CAROLINA SUN AS WEAK HIGH
PRS BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WHILE ECMWF KEEPS THE
BNDRY NEARLY STNRY ACROSS THE RGN. THE BNDRY PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRNT MONDAY WITH A TROF LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
THUS LOOK FOR CHC POPS EACH DAY AS TIMING OF ANY ONE DISTURBANCE
RATHER PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT.

HIGHS SAT / SUN IN THE M-U80S...85-90 MON / TUE. LOWS U60S-M70S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THRU THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. S/SW FLOW ~10 KT CONTINUES TDA
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT. EXPECT MAINLY HI CLOUDS...WITH
SHRAS/TSTMS PSBL THIS AFTN/EVENG THOUGH CHANCES ARE NOT HI ENUF TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK...A FRONTAL SYSTM WILL DROP INTO THE AREA THU AND LINGER
THROUGH SUNDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE CONVECTION.
THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS EACH DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES THU NIGHT AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA OVER THE BAY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THRU 7 AM AS WINDS THERE CONTINUE
TO GUST TO ~20-25 KT ERLY THIS MORNG. WINDS WILL THEN RELAX THRU THE
DAY AS A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FM THE NW. EXPECT 10-15 KT S WINDS
THIS AFTN WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVER THE BAY AND 2-4 FT SEAS OVER CSTL
WTRS. THE FRNT DROPS INTO THE AREA FM THE NW ON THU...WITH WINDS
BCMG LIGHT AND VRB AS THE FRNT STALLS AND REMAINS IN THE VICINITY
THRU FRI. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT AND SEAS AVG 2-4 FT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
SUB-SCA CONDS CONTINUING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/SAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011107
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
707 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND DROPS INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT THEN BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT
LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST. 1006MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER LAKE
ONTARIO...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING BACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SE TODAY...BUT REMAIN N OF THE
LOCAL AREA. SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY...WHICH
WILL KEEP THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE STABLE. GIVEN THIS...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. 850MB
TEMPERATURES OF 16-18C SHOULD SUPPORT SEASONABLY WARM HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. A MODEST REPRIEVE IN HUMIDITY IS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY INLAND AS DEWPOINTS DROP TO 60-65F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. OVERALL...THE 00Z/01
NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH RESPECT TO SHOWERS/TSTMS ACCOMPANYING
THE BOUNDARY...WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE EITHER DRY OR INDICATE ONLY
ISO ACTIVITY. THERE IS SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER FORCING WILL
REMAIN WELL W OF THE REGION...SO WILL ONLY FORECAST A 20% POP WITH
THE BOUNDARY. INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE REGION THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DEVELOP A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER ERN NC AS ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER UPPER WAVE LOCATES OVER THE MID MS
VALLEY. 20-30% POPS THURSDAY MORNING INCREASE TO 40-50% POPS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/ EVENING OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC...THEN TO ~60%
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. PWATS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO
2+ INCHES THURSDAY NIGHT IN DEEP LAYER SW FLOW. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE
IN CONCERT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING ALONG THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE BOUNDARY AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION FRIDAY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-MS VALLEY LOW APPROACHES FROM THE W.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIKELY POPS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY. DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL (UP TO 600% OF NORMAL THIS PAST
WEEK)...MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AND CONTINUES TO BE HEADLINED
IN THE HWO. 72 HR RAINFALL TOTALS AVERAGE BETWEEN 1.0-1.5
IN...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

FORECAST HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AREA GENERALLY ON THE LOW-SIDE
OF GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE ANY
PERIODS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGHS THURSDAY RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S
NW...TO THE UPPER 80S SE...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS FRIDAY RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 70S NW...TO THE MID 80S FAR SE. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPSTREAM BLOCKING PATTERN RESULTS IN LITTLE MOVEMENT OF OVERALL
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THRU THE HOLIDAY WKEND / MED RANGE PERIOD.

MODELS STALL WAVY FRONTAL BNDRY ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC REGION SAT.
GFS WANTS TO PUSH THIS BNDRY INTO NORTH CAROLINA SUN AS WEAK HIGH
PRS BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WHILE ECMWF KEEPS THE
BNDRY NEARLY STNRY ACROSS THE RGN. THE BNDRY PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRNT MONDAY WITH A TROF LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
THUS LOOK FOR CHC POPS EACH DAY AS TIMING OF ANY ONE DISTURBANCE
RATHER PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT.

HIGHS SAT / SUN IN THE M-U80S...85-90 MON / TUE. LOWS U60S-M70S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THRU THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. S/SW FLOW ~10 KT CONTINUES TDA
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT. EXPECT MAINLY HI CLOUDS...WITH
SHRAS/TSTMS PSBL THIS AFTN/EVENG THOUGH CHANCES ARE NOT HI ENUF TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK...A FRONTAL SYSTM WILL DROP INTO THE AREA THU AND LINGER
THROUGH SUNDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE CONVECTION.
THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS EACH DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES THU NIGHT AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA OVER THE BAY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THRU 7 AM AS WINDS THERE CONTINUE
TO GUST TO ~20-25 KT ERLY THIS MORNG. WINDS WILL THEN RELAX THRU THE
DAY AS A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FM THE NW. EXPECT 10-15 KT S WINDS
THIS AFTN WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVER THE BAY AND 2-4 FT SEAS OVER CSTL
WTRS. THE FRNT DROPS INTO THE AREA FM THE NW ON THU...WITH WINDS
BCMG LIGHT AND VRB AS THE FRNT STALLS AND REMAINS IN THE VICINITY
THRU FRI. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT AND SEAS AVG 2-4 FT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
SUB-SCA CONDS CONTINUING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/SAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011049
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
649 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND DROPS INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT THEN BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT
LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NE ACROSS
THE NRN MID ATLANTIC. LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS ARE LOCALLY
CONFINED TO BAY-SIDE OF THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE...AND SHOULD EXIT
THE REGION BY 5 AM. OTHERWISE...1006MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED
OVER LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING BACK THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SE TODAY...BUT
REMAIN N OF THE LOCAL AREA. SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL TODAY...WHICH WILL KEEP THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE STABLE.
GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.
850MB TEMPERATURES OF 16-18C SHOULD SUPPORT SEASONABLY WARM HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. A MODEST REPRIEVE IN HUMIDITY IS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY INLAND AS DEWPOINTS DROP TO 60-65F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. OVERALL...THE 00Z/01
NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH RESPECT TO SHOWERS/TSTMS ACCOMPANYING
THE BOUNDARY...WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE EITHER DRY OR INDICATE ONLY
ISO ACTIVITY. THERE IS SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER FORCING WILL
REMAIN WELL W OF THE REGION...SO WILL ONLY FORECAST A 20% POP WITH
THE BOUNDARY. INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE REGION THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DEVELOP A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER ERN NC AS ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER UPPER WAVE LOCATES OVER THE MID MS
VALLEY. 20-30% POPS THURSDAY MORNING INCREASE TO 40-50% POPS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/ EVENING OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC...THEN TO ~60%
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. PWATS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO
2+ INCHES THURSDAY NIGHT IN DEEP LAYER SW FLOW. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE
IN CONCERT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING ALONG THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE BOUNDARY AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION FRIDAY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-MS VALLEY LOW APPROACHES FROM THE W.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIKELY POPS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY. DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL (UP TO 600% OF NORMAL THIS PAST
WEEK)...MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AND CONTINUES TO BE HEADLINED
IN THE HWO. 72 HR RAINFALL TOTALS AVERAGE BETWEEN 1.0-1.5
IN...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

FORECAST HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AREA GENERALLY ON THE LOW-SIDE
OF GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE ANY
PERIODS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGHS THURSDAY RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S
NW...TO THE UPPER 80S SE...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS FRIDAY RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 70S NW...TO THE MID 80S FAR SE. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPSTREAM BLOCKING PATTERN RESULTS IN LITTLE MOVEMENT OF OVERALL
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THRU THE HOLIDAY WKEND / MED RANGE PERIOD.

MODELS STALL WAVY FRONTAL BNDRY ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC REGION SAT.
GFS WANTS TO PUSH THIS BNDRY INTO NORTH CAROLINA SUN AS WEAK HIGH
PRS BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WHILE ECMWF KEEPS THE
BNDRY NEARLY STNRY ACROSS THE RGN. THE BNDRY PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRNT MONDAY WITH A TROF LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
THUS LOOK FOR CHC POPS EACH DAY AS TIMING OF ANY ONE DISTURBANCE
RATHER PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT.

HIGHS SAT / SUN IN THE M-U80S...85-90 MON / TUE. LOWS U60S-M70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THRU THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. S/SW FLOW ~10 KT CONTINUES TDA
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT. EXPECT MAINLY HI CLOUDS...WITH
SHRAS/TSTMS PSBL THIS AFTN/EVENG THOUGH CHANCES ARE NOT HI ENUF TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK...A FRONTAL SYSTM WILL DROP INTO THE AREA THU AND LINGER
THROUGH SUNDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE CONVECTION.
THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS EACH DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES THU NIGHT AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA OVER THE BAY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THRU 7 AM AS WINDS THERE CONTINUE
TO GUST TO ~20-25 KT ERLY THIS MORNG. WINDS WILL THEN RELAX THRU THE
DAY AS A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FM THE NW. EXPECT 10-15 KT S WINDS
THIS AFTN WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVER THE BAY AND 2-4 FT SEAS OVER CSTL
WTRS. THE FRNT DROPS INTO THE AREA FM THE NW ON THU...WITH WINDS
BCMG LIGHT AND VRB AS THE FRNT STALLS AND REMAINS IN THE VICINITY
THRU FRI. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT AND SEAS AVG 2-4 FT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
SUB-SCA CONDS CONTINUING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/SAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011049
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
649 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND DROPS INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT THEN BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT
LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NE ACROSS
THE NRN MID ATLANTIC. LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS ARE LOCALLY
CONFINED TO BAY-SIDE OF THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE...AND SHOULD EXIT
THE REGION BY 5 AM. OTHERWISE...1006MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED
OVER LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING BACK THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SE TODAY...BUT
REMAIN N OF THE LOCAL AREA. SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL TODAY...WHICH WILL KEEP THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE STABLE.
GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.
850MB TEMPERATURES OF 16-18C SHOULD SUPPORT SEASONABLY WARM HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. A MODEST REPRIEVE IN HUMIDITY IS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY INLAND AS DEWPOINTS DROP TO 60-65F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. OVERALL...THE 00Z/01
NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH RESPECT TO SHOWERS/TSTMS ACCOMPANYING
THE BOUNDARY...WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE EITHER DRY OR INDICATE ONLY
ISO ACTIVITY. THERE IS SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER FORCING WILL
REMAIN WELL W OF THE REGION...SO WILL ONLY FORECAST A 20% POP WITH
THE BOUNDARY. INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE REGION THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DEVELOP A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER ERN NC AS ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER UPPER WAVE LOCATES OVER THE MID MS
VALLEY. 20-30% POPS THURSDAY MORNING INCREASE TO 40-50% POPS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/ EVENING OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC...THEN TO ~60%
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. PWATS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO
2+ INCHES THURSDAY NIGHT IN DEEP LAYER SW FLOW. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE
IN CONCERT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING ALONG THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE BOUNDARY AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION FRIDAY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-MS VALLEY LOW APPROACHES FROM THE W.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIKELY POPS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY. DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL (UP TO 600% OF NORMAL THIS PAST
WEEK)...MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AND CONTINUES TO BE HEADLINED
IN THE HWO. 72 HR RAINFALL TOTALS AVERAGE BETWEEN 1.0-1.5
IN...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

FORECAST HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AREA GENERALLY ON THE LOW-SIDE
OF GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE ANY
PERIODS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGHS THURSDAY RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S
NW...TO THE UPPER 80S SE...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS FRIDAY RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 70S NW...TO THE MID 80S FAR SE. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPSTREAM BLOCKING PATTERN RESULTS IN LITTLE MOVEMENT OF OVERALL
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THRU THE HOLIDAY WKEND / MED RANGE PERIOD.

MODELS STALL WAVY FRONTAL BNDRY ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC REGION SAT.
GFS WANTS TO PUSH THIS BNDRY INTO NORTH CAROLINA SUN AS WEAK HIGH
PRS BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WHILE ECMWF KEEPS THE
BNDRY NEARLY STNRY ACROSS THE RGN. THE BNDRY PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRNT MONDAY WITH A TROF LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
THUS LOOK FOR CHC POPS EACH DAY AS TIMING OF ANY ONE DISTURBANCE
RATHER PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT.

HIGHS SAT / SUN IN THE M-U80S...85-90 MON / TUE. LOWS U60S-M70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THRU THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. S/SW FLOW ~10 KT CONTINUES TDA
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT. EXPECT MAINLY HI CLOUDS...WITH
SHRAS/TSTMS PSBL THIS AFTN/EVENG THOUGH CHANCES ARE NOT HI ENUF TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK...A FRONTAL SYSTM WILL DROP INTO THE AREA THU AND LINGER
THROUGH SUNDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE CONVECTION.
THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS EACH DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES THU NIGHT AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA OVER THE BAY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THRU 7 AM AS WINDS THERE CONTINUE
TO GUST TO ~20-25 KT ERLY THIS MORNG. WINDS WILL THEN RELAX THRU THE
DAY AS A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FM THE NW. EXPECT 10-15 KT S WINDS
THIS AFTN WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVER THE BAY AND 2-4 FT SEAS OVER CSTL
WTRS. THE FRNT DROPS INTO THE AREA FM THE NW ON THU...WITH WINDS
BCMG LIGHT AND VRB AS THE FRNT STALLS AND REMAINS IN THE VICINITY
THRU FRI. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT AND SEAS AVG 2-4 FT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
SUB-SCA CONDS CONTINUING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/SAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011029
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
629 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST POPS AND WEATHER BASED ON THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS. CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTS TO MOVE ALONG
AND NORTH OF I 80...UNDER MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WHICH IS
MAINTAINING INSTABILITY.

PREVIOUS...
SHOWER CHANCES WERE CONTINUED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION. USED A NAM/HRRR/GFS
COMBO TO CONSTRUCT...TIME...AND CEASE POPS BY THIS EVENING.

SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS WERE ONLY TWEAKED USING A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE A SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT PLOUGHS
SUFFICIENTLY SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO INITIATE SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE I 70
CORRIDOR...WITH PRECIP PROBABILITIES INCREASING NORTHWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A TRAILING DISTURBANCE AMPLIFIES THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE REGION.

THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WAS THUS RADICALLY CHANGED AND NOW
INCLUDES LIKELY POPS FOR AREAS FROM PIT SOUTHWARD...ALL BASED ON
A BLEND OF SREF...AND THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC TREND OF GFS AND
NAM.

TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST JUST UNDER THE SEASONAL AVERAGES GIVEN
THE PERSISTENT TROUGHING ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA WILL LINGER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. BY SUNDAY NIGHT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT
MAY FINALLY SHIFT OUT OF THE REGION...BRINGING A BRIEF DRY SPELL
TO ALL LOCATIONS. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
GFS/ECMWF HAVE VASTLY DIFFERENT TIMING FOR WHEN THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WOULD CROSS THE REGION...WITH THE ECMWF MUCH FASTER
WITH THE FRONT. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH TIMING SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF...PRIMARILY BECAUSE MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE IN
BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CREEP
UP A FEW DEGREES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LIFR CEILINGS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT ZZV AND
MGW...WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO TAKE MOST OF THE MORNING TO SCATTER
OUT TO VFR. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST BY LATE
MORNING. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...PRIMARILY NORTH OF
PITTSBURGH...BUT DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE TO
INCLUDE MENTION IN FKL/DUJ TAFS AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER ROUND OF
IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL ADD
THIS MENTION TO ALL 12Z TAFS.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
RESTRICTIONS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011029
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
629 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST POPS AND WEATHER BASED ON THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS. CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTS TO MOVE ALONG
AND NORTH OF I 80...UNDER MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WHICH IS
MAINTAINING INSTABILITY.

PREVIOUS...
SHOWER CHANCES WERE CONTINUED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION. USED A NAM/HRRR/GFS
COMBO TO CONSTRUCT...TIME...AND CEASE POPS BY THIS EVENING.

SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS WERE ONLY TWEAKED USING A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE A SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT PLOUGHS
SUFFICIENTLY SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO INITIATE SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE I 70
CORRIDOR...WITH PRECIP PROBABILITIES INCREASING NORTHWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A TRAILING DISTURBANCE AMPLIFIES THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE REGION.

THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WAS THUS RADICALLY CHANGED AND NOW
INCLUDES LIKELY POPS FOR AREAS FROM PIT SOUTHWARD...ALL BASED ON
A BLEND OF SREF...AND THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC TREND OF GFS AND
NAM.

TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST JUST UNDER THE SEASONAL AVERAGES GIVEN
THE PERSISTENT TROUGHING ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA WILL LINGER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. BY SUNDAY NIGHT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT
MAY FINALLY SHIFT OUT OF THE REGION...BRINGING A BRIEF DRY SPELL
TO ALL LOCATIONS. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
GFS/ECMWF HAVE VASTLY DIFFERENT TIMING FOR WHEN THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WOULD CROSS THE REGION...WITH THE ECMWF MUCH FASTER
WITH THE FRONT. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH TIMING SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF...PRIMARILY BECAUSE MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE IN
BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CREEP
UP A FEW DEGREES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LIFR CEILINGS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT ZZV AND
MGW...WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO TAKE MOST OF THE MORNING TO SCATTER
OUT TO VFR. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST BY LATE
MORNING. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...PRIMARILY NORTH OF
PITTSBURGH...BUT DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE TO
INCLUDE MENTION IN FKL/DUJ TAFS AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER ROUND OF
IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL ADD
THIS MENTION TO ALL 12Z TAFS.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
RESTRICTIONS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPHI 010933
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
533 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. A COLD
FRONT FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SHOULD THEN MOVE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF OUR
REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG IT. A SECOND COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOR SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT SHOULD
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT REACHING
THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA HAS LIFTED TO OUR
NORTHEAST. THERE WILL REMAIN SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING, BUT THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED, SO WE HAVE CANCELLED THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

AFTER THE MORNING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OUT AND END, THE REST
OF THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON MAY SEE A BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER IN THE DAY
AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA,
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA, ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN HALF.

HIGHS TODAY ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE AND MIXED 925 MB
ECMWF TEMPERATURES.

WINDS DURING THE DAY WILL ALSO GUST AROUND 20-25 MPH.

WE ARE EXPECTED TO PERFORM STORM SURVEYS TODAY AFTER 9 AM IN CHESTER
COUNTY AND THE LEHIGH VALLEY TO INVESTIGATE THE POSSIBILITY OF
TORNADO OCCURRENCES ON TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, WHILE THE
SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY ALOFT FOLLOWS ALONG. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING, BEFORE
THEY DIMINISH AND MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD.
THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD BE RAIN FREE BY MIDNIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND STALLS OUT THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA,
THERE WILL REMAIN SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES SLIDING
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH, BUT THERE WILL REMAIN THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA.

HIGHS THURSDAY ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE AND MIXED 925
MB ECMWF TEMPERATURES. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET
MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WRF-NMMB LOOKED BETTER AT 500MB AND 850MB WITH AN EQUAL SPLIT
AT 925MB. THIS CASTS SOME DOUBT ON THE GFS SOLUTION FOR THE LONG
TERM. THERE REMAINS BOTH A TIMING AND LATITUDINAL SPLIT WITH THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WITH THE GFS SLOWEST AND FARTHEST NORTH.
THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME FEEDBACK VORTS WITH THE GFS AND THE GEFS
PCPN MEAN IS LOWER THAN THE OP. REGARDLESS ONGOING SVR AND FLOODING
HAS MADE US LEAN HEAVILY ON PMDHMD (ECMWF PREFERENCE) AND WPC FOR
THE LONG TERM.

FRIDAY, WE ARE KEEPING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
OUR CWA. MAX TEMPS HIGHER THAN MEX GUIDANCE, BUT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

PRESERVATION OF CONTINUITY WE KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. HERE THE ECMWF IS MORE PESSIMISTIC. SUNDAY
CONTINUES TO BE THE CONSENSUS BETTER WEEKEND DAY WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHED FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.

THE RETURNING WARM FRONT SHOULD THEN BRING PCPN CHANCES BACK ON
MONDAY AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT PROVIDING AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE
COME TUESDAY.

UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGHER THAN AVERAGE, BUT TEMPERATURES FAVOR AT
OR COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH A RETURN OF MORE
WARMER AND HUMID WEATHER FOR THE BACK END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LIFTED TO OUR NORTHEAST AND
CONDITIONS HAVE MOSTLY IMPROVED TO VFR. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG
IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AROUND AND SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
HOWEVER, AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES, ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL
BURN OFF AND A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY.

SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
ALSO GUST 15-20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE THE GUSTS DROP OFF
AROUND SUNSET AND BECOME MORE WEST-NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WINDS MAY
ACTUALLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MANY AREAS OVERNIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FOR THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT, BUT THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME LIGHT FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT SOME MVFR OR
IFR CONDITIONS DURING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IMPACT
OUTLOOKED TO BE GREATER FOR SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SEAS ARE AROUND 4
FEET EARLY THIS MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 5 FEET
THROUGH THE DAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR
DELAWARE BAY AS WINDS ARE GUSTING AROUND 25 KNOTS THIS MORNING.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING, SO WE WILL RUN THIS ONE
THROUGH 11 AM.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS MIGHT
REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN
AVERAGE.

SUNDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
BASED ON OUR LOCAL FORECAST APPLICATION USING A 5 FOOT WAVES/7
SECOND PERIOD AND SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 12 KNOTS, WE WILL CONTINUE
WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR NEW JERSEY AND LOW FOR
DELAWARE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
PCPN MEASURER ERROR AT KPHL, ESTIMATED AMOUNT OF 1.5" ON 6/30
MAY BE ADJUSTED LATER TODAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...
EQUIPMENT...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 010933
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
533 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. A COLD
FRONT FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SHOULD THEN MOVE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF OUR
REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG IT. A SECOND COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOR SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT SHOULD
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT REACHING
THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA HAS LIFTED TO OUR
NORTHEAST. THERE WILL REMAIN SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING, BUT THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED, SO WE HAVE CANCELLED THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

AFTER THE MORNING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OUT AND END, THE REST
OF THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON MAY SEE A BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER IN THE DAY
AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA,
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA, ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN HALF.

HIGHS TODAY ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE AND MIXED 925 MB
ECMWF TEMPERATURES.

WINDS DURING THE DAY WILL ALSO GUST AROUND 20-25 MPH.

WE ARE EXPECTED TO PERFORM STORM SURVEYS TODAY AFTER 9 AM IN CHESTER
COUNTY AND THE LEHIGH VALLEY TO INVESTIGATE THE POSSIBILITY OF
TORNADO OCCURRENCES ON TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, WHILE THE
SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY ALOFT FOLLOWS ALONG. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING, BEFORE
THEY DIMINISH AND MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD.
THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD BE RAIN FREE BY MIDNIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND STALLS OUT THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA,
THERE WILL REMAIN SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES SLIDING
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH, BUT THERE WILL REMAIN THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA.

HIGHS THURSDAY ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE AND MIXED 925
MB ECMWF TEMPERATURES. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET
MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WRF-NMMB LOOKED BETTER AT 500MB AND 850MB WITH AN EQUAL SPLIT
AT 925MB. THIS CASTS SOME DOUBT ON THE GFS SOLUTION FOR THE LONG
TERM. THERE REMAINS BOTH A TIMING AND LATITUDINAL SPLIT WITH THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WITH THE GFS SLOWEST AND FARTHEST NORTH.
THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME FEEDBACK VORTS WITH THE GFS AND THE GEFS
PCPN MEAN IS LOWER THAN THE OP. REGARDLESS ONGOING SVR AND FLOODING
HAS MADE US LEAN HEAVILY ON PMDHMD (ECMWF PREFERENCE) AND WPC FOR
THE LONG TERM.

FRIDAY, WE ARE KEEPING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
OUR CWA. MAX TEMPS HIGHER THAN MEX GUIDANCE, BUT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

PRESERVATION OF CONTINUITY WE KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. HERE THE ECMWF IS MORE PESSIMISTIC. SUNDAY
CONTINUES TO BE THE CONSENSUS BETTER WEEKEND DAY WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHED FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.

THE RETURNING WARM FRONT SHOULD THEN BRING PCPN CHANCES BACK ON
MONDAY AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT PROVIDING AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE
COME TUESDAY.

UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGHER THAN AVERAGE, BUT TEMPERATURES FAVOR AT
OR COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH A RETURN OF MORE
WARMER AND HUMID WEATHER FOR THE BACK END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LIFTED TO OUR NORTHEAST AND
CONDITIONS HAVE MOSTLY IMPROVED TO VFR. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG
IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AROUND AND SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
HOWEVER, AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES, ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL
BURN OFF AND A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY.

SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
ALSO GUST 15-20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE THE GUSTS DROP OFF
AROUND SUNSET AND BECOME MORE WEST-NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WINDS MAY
ACTUALLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MANY AREAS OVERNIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FOR THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT, BUT THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME LIGHT FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT SOME MVFR OR
IFR CONDITIONS DURING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IMPACT
OUTLOOKED TO BE GREATER FOR SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SEAS ARE AROUND 4
FEET EARLY THIS MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 5 FEET
THROUGH THE DAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR
DELAWARE BAY AS WINDS ARE GUSTING AROUND 25 KNOTS THIS MORNING.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING, SO WE WILL RUN THIS ONE
THROUGH 11 AM.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS MIGHT
REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN
AVERAGE.

SUNDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
BASED ON OUR LOCAL FORECAST APPLICATION USING A 5 FOOT WAVES/7
SECOND PERIOD AND SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 12 KNOTS, WE WILL CONTINUE
WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR NEW JERSEY AND LOW FOR
DELAWARE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
PCPN MEASURER ERROR AT KPHL, ESTIMATED AMOUNT OF 1.5" ON 6/30
MAY BE ADJUSTED LATER TODAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 010821
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
421 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. A COLD
FRONT FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SHOULD THEN MOVE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF OUR
REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG IT. A SECOND COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOR SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT SHOULD
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT REACHING
THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA. THE SHORT WAVE WILL LIFT TO OUR NORTHEAST AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK, SO PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TAPERING OFF
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN THROUGH
6 AM, BUT AS PRECIPITATION RATES CONTINUE TO COME DOWN AND THE FACT
THAT THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TAPERING OFF AROUND DAYBREAK, WE
WILL LET THE CURRENT EXPIRATION OF 6 AM CONTINUE.

AFTER THE MORNING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OUT AND END, THE REST
OF THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON MAY SEE A BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER IN THE DAY
AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA,
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA, ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN HALF.

HIGHS TODAY ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE AND MIXED 925 MB
ECMWF TEMPERATURES.

WINDS DURING THE DAY WILL ALSO GUST AROUND 20-25 MPH.

WE ARE EXPECTED TO PERFORM STORM SURVEYS TODAY AFTER 9 AM IN CHESTER
COUNTY AND THE LEHIGH VALLEY TO INVESTIGATE THE POSSIBILITY OF
TORNADO OCCURRENCES ON TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, WHILE THE
SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY ALOFT FOLLOWS ALONG. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING, BEFORE
THEY DIMINISH AND MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD.
THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD BE RAIN FREE BY MIDNIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND STALLS OUT THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA,
THERE WILL REMAIN SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES SLIDING
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH, BUT THERE WILL REMAIN THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA.

HIGHS THURSDAY ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE AND MIXED 925
MB ECMWF TEMPERATURES. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET
MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WRF-NMMB LOOKED BETTER AT 500MB AND 850MB WITH AN EQUAL SPLIT
AT 925MB. THIS CASTS SOME DOUBT ON THE GFS SOLUTION FOR THE LONG
TERM. THERE REMAINS BOTH A TIMING AND LATITUDINAL SPLIT WITH THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WITH THE GFS SLOWEST AND FARTHEST NORTH.
THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME FEEDBACK VORTS WITH THE GFS AND THE GEFS
PCPN MEAN IS LOWER THAN THE OP. REGARDLESS ONGOING SVR AND FLOODING
HAS MADE US LEAN HEAVILY ON PMDHMD (ECMWF PREFERENCE) AND WPC FOR
THE LONG TERM.

FRIDAY, WE ARE KEEPING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
OUR CWA. MAX TEMPS HIGHER THAN MEX GUIDANCE, BUT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

PRESERVATION OF CONTINUITY WE KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. HERE THE ECMWF IS MORE PESSIMISTIC. SUNDAY
CONTINUES TO BE THE CONSENSUS BETTER WEEKEND DAY WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHED FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.

THE RETURNING WARM FRONT SHOULD THEN BRING PCPN CHANCES BACK ON
MONDAY AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT PROVIDING AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE
COME TUESDAY.

UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGHER THAN AVERAGE, BUT TEMPERATURES FAVOR AT
OR COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH A RETURN OF MORE
WARMER AND HUMID WEATHER FOR THE BACK END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

AN AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE
WHILE THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA, VARYING
FROM VFR TO MVFR TO IFR. ONCE THE RAIN LIFTS TO OUR NORTHEAST, A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AROUND AND SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. HOWEVER, AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES, ANY FOG THAT
DEVELOPS WILL BURN OFF AND A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
ALSO GUST 15-20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE THE GUSTS DROP OFF
AROUND SUNSET AND BECOME MORE WEST-NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WINDS MAY
ACTUALLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MANY AREAS OVERNIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FOR THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT, BUT THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME LIGHT FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT SOME MVFR OR
IFR CONDITIONS DURING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IMPACT
OUTLOOKED TO BE GREATER FOR SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SEAS ARE AROUND 4
FEET EARLY THIS MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 5 FEET
THROUGH THE DAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR
DELAWARE BAY AS WINDS ARE GUSTING AROUND 25 KNOTS THIS MORNING.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING, SO WE WILL RUN THIS ONE
THROUGH 11 AM.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS MIGHT
REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN
AVERAGE.

SUNDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
BASED ON OUR LOCAL FORECAST APPLICATION USING A 5 FOOT WAVES/7
SECOND PERIOD AND SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 12 KNOTS, WE WILL CONTINUE
WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR NEW JERSEY AND LOW FOR
DELAWARE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
PCPN MEASURER ERROR AT KPHL, ESTIMATED AMOUNT OF 1.5" ON 6/30
MAY BE ADJUSTED LATER TODAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054-
     055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010-012-013-015>019.
DE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001.
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MDZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...
EQUIPMENT...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 010821
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
421 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. A COLD
FRONT FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SHOULD THEN MOVE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF OUR
REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG IT. A SECOND COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOR SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT SHOULD
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT REACHING
THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA. THE SHORT WAVE WILL LIFT TO OUR NORTHEAST AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK, SO PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TAPERING OFF
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN THROUGH
6 AM, BUT AS PRECIPITATION RATES CONTINUE TO COME DOWN AND THE FACT
THAT THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TAPERING OFF AROUND DAYBREAK, WE
WILL LET THE CURRENT EXPIRATION OF 6 AM CONTINUE.

AFTER THE MORNING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OUT AND END, THE REST
OF THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON MAY SEE A BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER IN THE DAY
AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA,
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA, ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN HALF.

HIGHS TODAY ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE AND MIXED 925 MB
ECMWF TEMPERATURES.

WINDS DURING THE DAY WILL ALSO GUST AROUND 20-25 MPH.

WE ARE EXPECTED TO PERFORM STORM SURVEYS TODAY AFTER 9 AM IN CHESTER
COUNTY AND THE LEHIGH VALLEY TO INVESTIGATE THE POSSIBILITY OF
TORNADO OCCURRENCES ON TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, WHILE THE
SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY ALOFT FOLLOWS ALONG. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING, BEFORE
THEY DIMINISH AND MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD.
THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD BE RAIN FREE BY MIDNIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND STALLS OUT THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA,
THERE WILL REMAIN SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES SLIDING
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH, BUT THERE WILL REMAIN THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA.

HIGHS THURSDAY ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE AND MIXED 925
MB ECMWF TEMPERATURES. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET
MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WRF-NMMB LOOKED BETTER AT 500MB AND 850MB WITH AN EQUAL SPLIT
AT 925MB. THIS CASTS SOME DOUBT ON THE GFS SOLUTION FOR THE LONG
TERM. THERE REMAINS BOTH A TIMING AND LATITUDINAL SPLIT WITH THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WITH THE GFS SLOWEST AND FARTHEST NORTH.
THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME FEEDBACK VORTS WITH THE GFS AND THE GEFS
PCPN MEAN IS LOWER THAN THE OP. REGARDLESS ONGOING SVR AND FLOODING
HAS MADE US LEAN HEAVILY ON PMDHMD (ECMWF PREFERENCE) AND WPC FOR
THE LONG TERM.

FRIDAY, WE ARE KEEPING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
OUR CWA. MAX TEMPS HIGHER THAN MEX GUIDANCE, BUT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

PRESERVATION OF CONTINUITY WE KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. HERE THE ECMWF IS MORE PESSIMISTIC. SUNDAY
CONTINUES TO BE THE CONSENSUS BETTER WEEKEND DAY WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHED FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.

THE RETURNING WARM FRONT SHOULD THEN BRING PCPN CHANCES BACK ON
MONDAY AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT PROVIDING AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE
COME TUESDAY.

UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGHER THAN AVERAGE, BUT TEMPERATURES FAVOR AT
OR COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH A RETURN OF MORE
WARMER AND HUMID WEATHER FOR THE BACK END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

AN AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE
WHILE THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA, VARYING
FROM VFR TO MVFR TO IFR. ONCE THE RAIN LIFTS TO OUR NORTHEAST, A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AROUND AND SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. HOWEVER, AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES, ANY FOG THAT
DEVELOPS WILL BURN OFF AND A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
ALSO GUST 15-20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE THE GUSTS DROP OFF
AROUND SUNSET AND BECOME MORE WEST-NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WINDS MAY
ACTUALLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MANY AREAS OVERNIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FOR THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT, BUT THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME LIGHT FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT SOME MVFR OR
IFR CONDITIONS DURING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IMPACT
OUTLOOKED TO BE GREATER FOR SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SEAS ARE AROUND 4
FEET EARLY THIS MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 5 FEET
THROUGH THE DAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR
DELAWARE BAY AS WINDS ARE GUSTING AROUND 25 KNOTS THIS MORNING.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING, SO WE WILL RUN THIS ONE
THROUGH 11 AM.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS MIGHT
REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN
AVERAGE.

SUNDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
BASED ON OUR LOCAL FORECAST APPLICATION USING A 5 FOOT WAVES/7
SECOND PERIOD AND SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 12 KNOTS, WE WILL CONTINUE
WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR NEW JERSEY AND LOW FOR
DELAWARE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
PCPN MEASURER ERROR AT KPHL, ESTIMATED AMOUNT OF 1.5" ON 6/30
MAY BE ADJUSTED LATER TODAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054-
     055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010-012-013-015>019.
DE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001.
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MDZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KLWX 010800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY.
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SEVERAL
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ALONG IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRONG STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARE MOVING
OFF TO THE EAST. WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR A LINGERING SHOWER
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE SHOULD
BE MAINLY DRY. LOW PRESSURE IS LIFTING OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH REAL PUSH OF DRIER AIR WELL TO OUR NW. LOOSELY
DEFINED FRONTAL ZONE SAGS SOUTH TODAY. NOT A LOT OF FORCING IN
PLACE...AND INSTBY LOOKS TO BE RATHER MEAGER. HAVE TRIMMED BACK
POPS OVER PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS WHICH DO GENERATE PRECIP FOCUS
MAINLY SOUTH OF DC...AND HAVE THUS LEFT A 30 POP THERE. HIGHS
TODAY STILL ABLE TO WARM INTO THE 80S IN MOST LOCALES.

FRONT MAY MAKE IT TOWARD SOUTHERN VA TONIGHT. ANY SHOWERS WILL
TAPER OFF DURING THE EVENING WITH A DRY OVERNIGHT. A BIT OF LOWER
DEWPOINT PUSH IN N/W CWA...BUT OVERALL STILL EXPECTING LOWS IN THE
60S TO AROUND 70 IN URBAN CENTERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...REACHING
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL DRAW SOME MOISTURE
INTO THE FRONT OVER OUR REGION. STILL SOME TIMING/PLACEMENT
DIFFERENCES AMONGST MODELS...BUT EXPECT A S TO N PROGRESSION OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER (AT LEAST SOME INSTBY MAY BE
PRESENT...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN TIER). QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH IF ANY
PRECIP REACHES THE M-D LINE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY LIKELY STAYS OVER OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED DOWN A FEW DEGREES BY THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIP...UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

THURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS...WITH DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ABOUT THE PATH AND TIMING OF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS RIDING EAST ALONG THE FRONT. SOME GUIDANCE
LIKE THE GFS BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE EUROPEAN IN
CONTRAST IS NOTABLY SLOWER...WITH THE MAIN WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WAITING UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA. THE
CANADIAN GGEM IS EVEN SLOWER...HOLDING THE MOST SIGNIFICANT LOW
BACK EVEN LONGER. WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE...SO KEPT CHANCE TO
LOW- END LIKELY POPS AND TEMPS SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN NORMAL
IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ABOUT THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED SIGNIFICANT TIMING DISCREPENCIES REGARDING
PASSING DISTURBANCES BETWEEN VARIOUS MODELS. THIS MAKES ANY
ATTEMPT TO IRON OUT DETAILS VERY DIFFICULT. THE ONE CONSTANT IS
THE APPARENTLY NEVER LEAVING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. INHERITED
GENERALLY CHANCE POPS THRU THE PERIOD AND DID NOT MAKE MAJOR
CHANGES. TEMPS START OUT BELOW NORMAL AND *MAY* RISE TO NEAR
NORMAL IF THE FRONT CAN FINALLY NUDGE ITS WAY NORTH OF US EARLY
NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PRECIP HAS EXITED THE AREA AND AM NOT EXPECTING FURTHER IMPACTS
THROUGH THE MORNING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH POTENTIAL FOR LOW CIGS
DEVELOPING THROUGH DAYBREAK...PERHAPS SOME FOG TOO...BUT THINK MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL HELP LIMIT THIS. TODAY SHOULD BE LARGELY
VFR...BUT FRONT SINKING INTO AREA MAY DEVELOP ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. IMPACTS SEEM UNLIKELY. NEXT CHANCE
OF PRECIP WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY...WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
IMPACTS AT CHO.

FROM THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD...MAIN CONCERN IS POSSIBLE IFR CIGS AND
VIS FROM OCCASIONAL HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AS A FRONT
REMAINS STALLED IN THE GENERAL AREA. WITH THE FRONT NEARBY...WINDS
WILL BE HARD TO PREDICT WITH SIGNIFICANT CERTAINTY UNTIL THE
PERIOD DRAWS CLOSER.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE TAKEN DOWNTURN AFTER EXITING STORMS AND SCA SHOULD
EXPIRE ON TIME. GRADIENT WEAK ENOUGH THAT WINDS WILL BE IN THE 10
KT RANGE FROM THE SW TODAY. AN ISOLATED STORM IS POSSIBLE BY MID-
LATE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS IS IN QUESTION. EXPECT SUB-SCA WINDS
THROUGH THURSDAY...EVENTUALLY TAKING ON NORTHERLY COMPONENT.

MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED FOR MARINE IS OCCASIONAL HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH APPEARS POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT EVERY
DAY FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE
SUB SCA BUT AS DISTURBANCES PASS THRU THE AREA...A PERIOD OF SCA
WINDS IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LVLS RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL EARLY THIS MORNING...MODULATED BY
RECENT STORMS. HOWEVER...STILL SHOULD BE ENOUGH ABOVE NORMAL FOR
POTENTIAL MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT ANNAPOLIS AND DC/ALEXANDRIA
FOR MORNING TIDE CYCLE. LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY FUTURE TIDE
ISSUES...BUT ANOMALIES SHOULD DECREASE SOME AS FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ014.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ013.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ053-054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ531>533-537-539>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ534-543.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ535.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS/RCM
LONG TERM...RCM
AVIATION...ADS/RCM
MARINE...ADS/RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KLWX 010800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY.
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SEVERAL
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ALONG IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRONG STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARE MOVING
OFF TO THE EAST. WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR A LINGERING SHOWER
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE SHOULD
BE MAINLY DRY. LOW PRESSURE IS LIFTING OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH REAL PUSH OF DRIER AIR WELL TO OUR NW. LOOSELY
DEFINED FRONTAL ZONE SAGS SOUTH TODAY. NOT A LOT OF FORCING IN
PLACE...AND INSTBY LOOKS TO BE RATHER MEAGER. HAVE TRIMMED BACK
POPS OVER PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS WHICH DO GENERATE PRECIP FOCUS
MAINLY SOUTH OF DC...AND HAVE THUS LEFT A 30 POP THERE. HIGHS
TODAY STILL ABLE TO WARM INTO THE 80S IN MOST LOCALES.

FRONT MAY MAKE IT TOWARD SOUTHERN VA TONIGHT. ANY SHOWERS WILL
TAPER OFF DURING THE EVENING WITH A DRY OVERNIGHT. A BIT OF LOWER
DEWPOINT PUSH IN N/W CWA...BUT OVERALL STILL EXPECTING LOWS IN THE
60S TO AROUND 70 IN URBAN CENTERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...REACHING
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL DRAW SOME MOISTURE
INTO THE FRONT OVER OUR REGION. STILL SOME TIMING/PLACEMENT
DIFFERENCES AMONGST MODELS...BUT EXPECT A S TO N PROGRESSION OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER (AT LEAST SOME INSTBY MAY BE
PRESENT...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN TIER). QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH IF ANY
PRECIP REACHES THE M-D LINE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY LIKELY STAYS OVER OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED DOWN A FEW DEGREES BY THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIP...UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

THURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS...WITH DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ABOUT THE PATH AND TIMING OF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS RIDING EAST ALONG THE FRONT. SOME GUIDANCE
LIKE THE GFS BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE EUROPEAN IN
CONTRAST IS NOTABLY SLOWER...WITH THE MAIN WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WAITING UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA. THE
CANADIAN GGEM IS EVEN SLOWER...HOLDING THE MOST SIGNIFICANT LOW
BACK EVEN LONGER. WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE...SO KEPT CHANCE TO
LOW- END LIKELY POPS AND TEMPS SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN NORMAL
IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ABOUT THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED SIGNIFICANT TIMING DISCREPENCIES REGARDING
PASSING DISTURBANCES BETWEEN VARIOUS MODELS. THIS MAKES ANY
ATTEMPT TO IRON OUT DETAILS VERY DIFFICULT. THE ONE CONSTANT IS
THE APPARENTLY NEVER LEAVING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. INHERITED
GENERALLY CHANCE POPS THRU THE PERIOD AND DID NOT MAKE MAJOR
CHANGES. TEMPS START OUT BELOW NORMAL AND *MAY* RISE TO NEAR
NORMAL IF THE FRONT CAN FINALLY NUDGE ITS WAY NORTH OF US EARLY
NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PRECIP HAS EXITED THE AREA AND AM NOT EXPECTING FURTHER IMPACTS
THROUGH THE MORNING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH POTENTIAL FOR LOW CIGS
DEVELOPING THROUGH DAYBREAK...PERHAPS SOME FOG TOO...BUT THINK MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL HELP LIMIT THIS. TODAY SHOULD BE LARGELY
VFR...BUT FRONT SINKING INTO AREA MAY DEVELOP ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. IMPACTS SEEM UNLIKELY. NEXT CHANCE
OF PRECIP WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY...WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
IMPACTS AT CHO.

FROM THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD...MAIN CONCERN IS POSSIBLE IFR CIGS AND
VIS FROM OCCASIONAL HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AS A FRONT
REMAINS STALLED IN THE GENERAL AREA. WITH THE FRONT NEARBY...WINDS
WILL BE HARD TO PREDICT WITH SIGNIFICANT CERTAINTY UNTIL THE
PERIOD DRAWS CLOSER.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE TAKEN DOWNTURN AFTER EXITING STORMS AND SCA SHOULD
EXPIRE ON TIME. GRADIENT WEAK ENOUGH THAT WINDS WILL BE IN THE 10
KT RANGE FROM THE SW TODAY. AN ISOLATED STORM IS POSSIBLE BY MID-
LATE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS IS IN QUESTION. EXPECT SUB-SCA WINDS
THROUGH THURSDAY...EVENTUALLY TAKING ON NORTHERLY COMPONENT.

MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED FOR MARINE IS OCCASIONAL HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH APPEARS POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT EVERY
DAY FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE
SUB SCA BUT AS DISTURBANCES PASS THRU THE AREA...A PERIOD OF SCA
WINDS IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LVLS RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL EARLY THIS MORNING...MODULATED BY
RECENT STORMS. HOWEVER...STILL SHOULD BE ENOUGH ABOVE NORMAL FOR
POTENTIAL MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT ANNAPOLIS AND DC/ALEXANDRIA
FOR MORNING TIDE CYCLE. LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY FUTURE TIDE
ISSUES...BUT ANOMALIES SHOULD DECREASE SOME AS FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ014.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ013.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ053-054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ531>533-537-539>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ534-543.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ535.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS/RCM
LONG TERM...RCM
AVIATION...ADS/RCM
MARINE...ADS/RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010759
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
359 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND DROPS INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT THEN BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT
LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NE ACROSS
THE NRN MID ATLANTIC. LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS ARE LOCALLY
CONFINED TO BAY-SIDE OF THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE...AND SHOULD EXIT
THE REGION BY 5 AM. OTHERWISE...1006MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED
OVER LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING BACK THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SE TODAY...BUT
REMAIN N OF THE LOCAL AREA. SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL TODAY...WHICH WILL KEEP THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE STABLE.
GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.
850MB TEMPERATURES OF 16-18C SHOULD SUPPORT SEASONABLY WARM HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. A MODEST REPRIEVE IN HUMIDITY IS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY INLAND AS DEWPOINTS DROP TO 60-65F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. OVERALL...THE 00Z/01
NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH RESPECT TO SHOWERS/TSTMS ACCOMPANYING
THE BOUNDARY...WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE EITHER DRY OR INDICATE ONLY
ISO ACTIVITY. THERE IS SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER FORCING WILL
REMAIN WELL W OF THE REGION...SO WILL ONLY FORECAST A 20% POP WITH
THE BOUNDARY. INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE REGION THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DEVELOP A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER ERN NC AS ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER UPPER WAVE LOCATES OVER THE MID MS
VALLEY. 20-30% POPS THURSDAY MORNING INCREASE TO 40-50% POPS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/ EVENING OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC...THEN TO ~60%
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. PWATS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO
2+ INCHES THURSDAY NIGHT IN DEEP LAYER SW FLOW. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE
IN CONCERT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING ALONG THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE BOUNDARY AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION FRIDAY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-MS VALLEY LOW APPROACHES FROM THE W.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIKELY POPS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY. DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL (UP TO 600% OF NORMAL THIS PAST
WEEK)...MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AND CONTINUES TO BE HEADLINED
IN THE HWO. 72 HR RAINFALL TOTALS AVERAGE BETWEEN 1.0-1.5
IN...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

FORECAST HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AREA GENERALLY ON THE LOW-SIDE
OF GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE ANY
PERIODS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGHS THURSDAY RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S
NW...TO THE UPPER 80S SE...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS FRIDAY RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 70S NW...TO THE MID 80S FAR SE. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPSTREAM BLOCKING PATTERN RESULTS IN LITTLE MOVEMENT OF OVERALL
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THRU THE HOLIDAY WKEND / MED RANGE PERIOD.

MODELS STALL WAVY FRONTAL BNDRY ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC REGION SAT.
GFS WANTS TO PUSH THIS BNDRY INTO NORTH CAROLINA SUN AS WEAK HIGH
PRS BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WHILE ECMWF KEEPS THE
BNDRY NEARLY STNRY ACROSS THE RGN. THE BNDRY PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRNT MONDAY WITH A TROF LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
THUS LOOK FOR CHC POPS EACH DAY AS TIMING OF ANY ONE DISTURBANCE
RATHER PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT.

HIGHS SAT / SUN IN THE M-U80S...85-90 MON / TUE. LOWS U60S-M70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. S/SW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AS THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN NW OF THE AREA. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR FOR ISO SHRAS/TSTMS ERLY THIS MORNG NR RIC/SBY. TSTMS
ARE PSBL AGAIN THIS AFTN AND EVENING THOUGH NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS
YESTERDAY.

OUTLOOK...A FRONTAL SYSTM WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE CONVECTION. THERE
WILL BE CHANCES FOR AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS EACH DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES ON THU AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA OVER THE BAY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THRU 7 AM AS WINDS THERE CONTINUE
TO GUST TO ~20-25 KT ERLY THIS MORNG. WINDS WILL THEN RELAX THRU THE
DAY AS A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FM THE NW. EXPECT 10-15 KT S WINDS
THIS AFTN WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVER THE BAY AND 2-4 FT SEAS OVER CSTL
WTRS. THE FRNT DROPS INTO THE AREA FM THE NW ON THU...WITH WINDS
BCMG LIGHT AND VRB AS THE FRNT STALLS AND REMAINS IN THE VICINITY
THRU FRI. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT AND SEAS AVG 2-4 FT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
SUB-SCA CONDS CONTINUING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/SAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...MAS/LSA
MARINE...MAS



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010759
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
359 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND DROPS INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT THEN BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT
LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NE ACROSS
THE NRN MID ATLANTIC. LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS ARE LOCALLY
CONFINED TO BAY-SIDE OF THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE...AND SHOULD EXIT
THE REGION BY 5 AM. OTHERWISE...1006MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED
OVER LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING BACK THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SE TODAY...BUT
REMAIN N OF THE LOCAL AREA. SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL TODAY...WHICH WILL KEEP THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE STABLE.
GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.
850MB TEMPERATURES OF 16-18C SHOULD SUPPORT SEASONABLY WARM HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. A MODEST REPRIEVE IN HUMIDITY IS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY INLAND AS DEWPOINTS DROP TO 60-65F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. OVERALL...THE 00Z/01
NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH RESPECT TO SHOWERS/TSTMS ACCOMPANYING
THE BOUNDARY...WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE EITHER DRY OR INDICATE ONLY
ISO ACTIVITY. THERE IS SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER FORCING WILL
REMAIN WELL W OF THE REGION...SO WILL ONLY FORECAST A 20% POP WITH
THE BOUNDARY. INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE REGION THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DEVELOP A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER ERN NC AS ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER UPPER WAVE LOCATES OVER THE MID MS
VALLEY. 20-30% POPS THURSDAY MORNING INCREASE TO 40-50% POPS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/ EVENING OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC...THEN TO ~60%
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. PWATS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO
2+ INCHES THURSDAY NIGHT IN DEEP LAYER SW FLOW. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE
IN CONCERT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING ALONG THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE BOUNDARY AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION FRIDAY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-MS VALLEY LOW APPROACHES FROM THE W.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIKELY POPS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY. DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL (UP TO 600% OF NORMAL THIS PAST
WEEK)...MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AND CONTINUES TO BE HEADLINED
IN THE HWO. 72 HR RAINFALL TOTALS AVERAGE BETWEEN 1.0-1.5
IN...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

FORECAST HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AREA GENERALLY ON THE LOW-SIDE
OF GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE ANY
PERIODS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGHS THURSDAY RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S
NW...TO THE UPPER 80S SE...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS FRIDAY RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 70S NW...TO THE MID 80S FAR SE. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPSTREAM BLOCKING PATTERN RESULTS IN LITTLE MOVEMENT OF OVERALL
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THRU THE HOLIDAY WKEND / MED RANGE PERIOD.

MODELS STALL WAVY FRONTAL BNDRY ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC REGION SAT.
GFS WANTS TO PUSH THIS BNDRY INTO NORTH CAROLINA SUN AS WEAK HIGH
PRS BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WHILE ECMWF KEEPS THE
BNDRY NEARLY STNRY ACROSS THE RGN. THE BNDRY PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRNT MONDAY WITH A TROF LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
THUS LOOK FOR CHC POPS EACH DAY AS TIMING OF ANY ONE DISTURBANCE
RATHER PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT.

HIGHS SAT / SUN IN THE M-U80S...85-90 MON / TUE. LOWS U60S-M70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. S/SW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AS THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN NW OF THE AREA. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR FOR ISO SHRAS/TSTMS ERLY THIS MORNG NR RIC/SBY. TSTMS
ARE PSBL AGAIN THIS AFTN AND EVENING THOUGH NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS
YESTERDAY.

OUTLOOK...A FRONTAL SYSTM WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE CONVECTION. THERE
WILL BE CHANCES FOR AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS EACH DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES ON THU AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA OVER THE BAY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THRU 7 AM AS WINDS THERE CONTINUE
TO GUST TO ~20-25 KT ERLY THIS MORNG. WINDS WILL THEN RELAX THRU THE
DAY AS A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FM THE NW. EXPECT 10-15 KT S WINDS
THIS AFTN WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVER THE BAY AND 2-4 FT SEAS OVER CSTL
WTRS. THE FRNT DROPS INTO THE AREA FM THE NW ON THU...WITH WINDS
BCMG LIGHT AND VRB AS THE FRNT STALLS AND REMAINS IN THE VICINITY
THRU FRI. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT AND SEAS AVG 2-4 FT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
SUB-SCA CONDS CONTINUING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/SAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...MAS/LSA
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010738
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
338 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST POPS AND WEATHER BASED ON THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS. CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTS TO MOVE ALONG
AND NORTH OF I 80...UNDER MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WHICH IS
MAINTAINING INSTABILITY.

PREVIOUS...
SHOWER CHANCES WERE CONTINUED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION. USED A NAM/HRRR/GFS
COMBO TO CONSTRUCT...TIME...AND CEASE POPS BY THIS EVENING.

SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS WERE ONLY TWEAKED USING A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE A SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT PLOUGHS
SUFFICIENTLY SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO INITIATE SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE I 70
CORRIDOR...WITH PRECIP PROBABILITIES INCREASING NORTHWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A TRAILING DISTURBANCE AMPLIFIES THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE REGION.

THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WAS THUS RADICALLY CHANGED AND NOW
INCLUDES LIKELY POPS FOR AREAS FROM PIT SOUTHWARD...ALL BASED ON
A BLEND OF SREF...AND THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC TREND OF GFS AND
NAM.

TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST JUST UNDER THE SEASONAL AVERAGES GIVEN
THE PERSISTENT TROUGHING ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA WILL LINGER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. BY SUNDAY NIGHT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT
MAY FINALLY SHIFT OUT OF THE REGION...BRINGING A BRIEF DRY SPELL
TO ALL LOCATIONS. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
GFS/ECMWF HAVE VASTLY DIFFERENT TIMING FOR WHEN THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WOULD CROSS THE REGION...WITH THE ECMWF MUCH FASTER
WITH THE FRONT. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH TIMING SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF...PRIMARILY BECAUSE MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE IN
BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CREEP
UP A FEW DEGREES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...TIGHT CEILING GRADIENT EXISTS JUST NORTH OF
PITTSBURGH...WITH LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH UNDER LIFR/IFR STRATUS
AND THE REST OF THE REGION UNDER SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. BIGGEST
QUESTION OVERNIGHT IS JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE STRATUS AND THE LIFR
CIGS WILL SHIFT. AT THIS POINT THINK THAT MGW WILL BE THE ONLY
TERMINAL ESCAPING IFR...WITH ZZV EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IFR
VISIBILITY AND THE STRATUS SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS THE PIT METRO
AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF THE LIFR CIGS MAKING IT
INTO PITTSBURGH EITHER.

SKIES WILL SLOWLY SCATTER OUT TO VFR DURING THE LATE MORNING
HOURS...WITH WINDS PICKING UP OUT OF THE WEST. SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...PRIMARILY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH...BUT DID NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE TO INCLUDE MENTION IN FKL/DUJ
TAFS AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADDED IFR VISIBILITY IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE PITTSBURGH TAF FOR OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR/IFR FOG IS EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS...ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/33



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010738
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
338 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST POPS AND WEATHER BASED ON THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS. CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTS TO MOVE ALONG
AND NORTH OF I 80...UNDER MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WHICH IS
MAINTAINING INSTABILITY.

PREVIOUS...
SHOWER CHANCES WERE CONTINUED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION. USED A NAM/HRRR/GFS
COMBO TO CONSTRUCT...TIME...AND CEASE POPS BY THIS EVENING.

SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS WERE ONLY TWEAKED USING A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE A SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT PLOUGHS
SUFFICIENTLY SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO INITIATE SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE I 70
CORRIDOR...WITH PRECIP PROBABILITIES INCREASING NORTHWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A TRAILING DISTURBANCE AMPLIFIES THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE REGION.

THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WAS THUS RADICALLY CHANGED AND NOW
INCLUDES LIKELY POPS FOR AREAS FROM PIT SOUTHWARD...ALL BASED ON
A BLEND OF SREF...AND THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC TREND OF GFS AND
NAM.

TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST JUST UNDER THE SEASONAL AVERAGES GIVEN
THE PERSISTENT TROUGHING ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA WILL LINGER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. BY SUNDAY NIGHT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT
MAY FINALLY SHIFT OUT OF THE REGION...BRINGING A BRIEF DRY SPELL
TO ALL LOCATIONS. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
GFS/ECMWF HAVE VASTLY DIFFERENT TIMING FOR WHEN THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WOULD CROSS THE REGION...WITH THE ECMWF MUCH FASTER
WITH THE FRONT. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH TIMING SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF...PRIMARILY BECAUSE MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE IN
BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CREEP
UP A FEW DEGREES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...TIGHT CEILING GRADIENT EXISTS JUST NORTH OF
PITTSBURGH...WITH LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH UNDER LIFR/IFR STRATUS
AND THE REST OF THE REGION UNDER SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. BIGGEST
QUESTION OVERNIGHT IS JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE STRATUS AND THE LIFR
CIGS WILL SHIFT. AT THIS POINT THINK THAT MGW WILL BE THE ONLY
TERMINAL ESCAPING IFR...WITH ZZV EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IFR
VISIBILITY AND THE STRATUS SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS THE PIT METRO
AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF THE LIFR CIGS MAKING IT
INTO PITTSBURGH EITHER.

SKIES WILL SLOWLY SCATTER OUT TO VFR DURING THE LATE MORNING
HOURS...WITH WINDS PICKING UP OUT OF THE WEST. SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...PRIMARILY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH...BUT DID NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE TO INCLUDE MENTION IN FKL/DUJ
TAFS AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADDED IFR VISIBILITY IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE PITTSBURGH TAF FOR OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR/IFR FOG IS EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS...ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/33




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010738
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
338 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST POPS AND WEATHER BASED ON THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS. CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTS TO MOVE ALONG
AND NORTH OF I 80...UNDER MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WHICH IS
MAINTAINING INSTABILITY.

PREVIOUS...
SHOWER CHANCES WERE CONTINUED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION. USED A NAM/HRRR/GFS
COMBO TO CONSTRUCT...TIME...AND CEASE POPS BY THIS EVENING.

SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS WERE ONLY TWEAKED USING A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE A SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT PLOUGHS
SUFFICIENTLY SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO INITIATE SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE I 70
CORRIDOR...WITH PRECIP PROBABILITIES INCREASING NORTHWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A TRAILING DISTURBANCE AMPLIFIES THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE REGION.

THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WAS THUS RADICALLY CHANGED AND NOW
INCLUDES LIKELY POPS FOR AREAS FROM PIT SOUTHWARD...ALL BASED ON
A BLEND OF SREF...AND THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC TREND OF GFS AND
NAM.

TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST JUST UNDER THE SEASONAL AVERAGES GIVEN
THE PERSISTENT TROUGHING ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA WILL LINGER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. BY SUNDAY NIGHT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT
MAY FINALLY SHIFT OUT OF THE REGION...BRINGING A BRIEF DRY SPELL
TO ALL LOCATIONS. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
GFS/ECMWF HAVE VASTLY DIFFERENT TIMING FOR WHEN THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WOULD CROSS THE REGION...WITH THE ECMWF MUCH FASTER
WITH THE FRONT. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH TIMING SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF...PRIMARILY BECAUSE MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE IN
BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CREEP
UP A FEW DEGREES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...TIGHT CEILING GRADIENT EXISTS JUST NORTH OF
PITTSBURGH...WITH LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH UNDER LIFR/IFR STRATUS
AND THE REST OF THE REGION UNDER SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. BIGGEST
QUESTION OVERNIGHT IS JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE STRATUS AND THE LIFR
CIGS WILL SHIFT. AT THIS POINT THINK THAT MGW WILL BE THE ONLY
TERMINAL ESCAPING IFR...WITH ZZV EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IFR
VISIBILITY AND THE STRATUS SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS THE PIT METRO
AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF THE LIFR CIGS MAKING IT
INTO PITTSBURGH EITHER.

SKIES WILL SLOWLY SCATTER OUT TO VFR DURING THE LATE MORNING
HOURS...WITH WINDS PICKING UP OUT OF THE WEST. SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...PRIMARILY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH...BUT DID NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE TO INCLUDE MENTION IN FKL/DUJ
TAFS AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADDED IFR VISIBILITY IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE PITTSBURGH TAF FOR OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR/IFR FOG IS EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS...ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/33



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010643
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
243 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE
FRONT LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 378 HAS EXPIRED. HOWEVER...LATEST
REGIONAL RADAR DEPICTS SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND NE NC...WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE PIEDMONT. THIS IN
RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND SFC TROUGH DROPPING OVER THE
PIEDMONT. SPC MESOANALYSIS CONTINUES TO DEPICT 1000-1500 J/KG
MLCAPE ALONG WITH 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THE RESULT WILL BE
AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS THRU 12-2 AM. SEVERE THREAT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A NEW WATCH.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

POPS TAPER OFF AFTER 1-2 AM WITH PARTIAL CLEARING LATE
(ESPECIALLY W). MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING ERN VA. LOW TONIGHT
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE REGION WEDS
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXITS THE NE COAST. OVERALL...THERE IS LITTLE
FORCING IN DEEP LAYER WLY FLOW. SFC TROUGH ALSO LOCATES ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. WILL RETAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOW END CHANCE POPS CLOSER TO THE
COAST WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC TROUGH.
HIGHS FORECAST IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDS NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S.

THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN NC AS ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER UPPER WAVE LOCATES OVER THE
MID MS VALLEY. 20-30 POPS THURS MORNING INCREASE TO 40-50 POPS
THURS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND CONTINUING THRU THE OVERNIGHT.
PWATS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 2+ INCHES THURS NIGHT IN DEEP LAYER
SWLY FLOW. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE IN CONCERT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY
LIFTING ALONG THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL THURS NIGHT. DUE TO THE RECENT RAINFALL (UP TO 600
PCT OF NORMAL THIS PAST WEEK)...MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AND HAS
BEEN HEADLINED IN THE HWO. 72 HR RAINFALL TOTALS (INCLUDING TODAY)
RANGE FROM OVER AN INCH FROM THE PIEDMONT INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH NEAR THE COAST. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS THURS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S. LOWS THURS NIGHT
IN THE MID- UPPER 60S NORTH TO LOW 70S SOUTH.

BOUNDARY AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION FRI AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID MS VALLEY LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL
MAINTAIN SOLID CHANCE POPS FRI AS SEVERAL WAVES CONTINUE TO SPREAD
OVER THE REGION. HIGHS FRI IN THE LOW-MID 80S (UPPER 70S FAR NW)
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY-CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPSTREAM BLOCKING PATTERN RESULTS IN LITTLE MOVEMENT OF OVERALL
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THRU THE HOLIDAY WKEND / MED RANGE PERIOD.

MODELS STALL WAVY FRONTAL BNDRY ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC REGION SAT.
GFS WANTS TO PUSH THIS BNDRY INTO NORTH CAROLINA SUN AS WEAK HIGH
PRS BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WHILE ECMWF KEEPS THE
BNDRY NEARLY STNRY ACROSS THE RGN. THE BNDRY PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRNT MONDAY WITH A TROF LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
THUS LOOK FOR CHC POPS EACH DAY AS TIMING OF ANY ONE DISTURBANCE
RATHER PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT.

HIGHS SAT / SUN IN THE M-U80S...85-90 MON / TUE. LOWS U60S-M70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. S/SW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AS THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN NW OF THE AREA. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR FOR ISO SHRAS/TSTMS ERLY THIS MORNG NR RIC/SBY. TSTMS
ARE PSBL AGAIN THIS AFTN AND EVENING THOUGH NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS
YESTERDAY.

OUTLOOK...A FRONTAL SYSTM WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE CONVECTION. THERE
WILL BE CHANCES FOR AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS EACH DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES ON THU AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL KEEP CRNT SCA HEADLINES UP FOR THE CHES BAY TONIGHT AS PRS
GRDNT TIGHTENS ENOUGH FOR MARGINAL (15-20 KT) WNDS. GRDNT RELAXES
WED MORNING KEEPING A WEAKER SLY/SWLY FLOW (10-15 KT) THRU WED NIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT. THE FRNT DROPS INTO THE AREA FM
THE NW ON THU...WITH WINDS BCMG LIGHT AND VRBL AS THE FRNT STALLS
THE LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THU NIGHT AND FRI. WAVES AVGG
1-2 FT AND SEAS AVGG 2-4 FT THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/SAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...MAS/LSA
MARINE...MPR



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010643
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
243 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE
FRONT LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 378 HAS EXPIRED. HOWEVER...LATEST
REGIONAL RADAR DEPICTS SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND NE NC...WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE PIEDMONT. THIS IN
RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND SFC TROUGH DROPPING OVER THE
PIEDMONT. SPC MESOANALYSIS CONTINUES TO DEPICT 1000-1500 J/KG
MLCAPE ALONG WITH 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THE RESULT WILL BE
AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS THRU 12-2 AM. SEVERE THREAT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A NEW WATCH.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

POPS TAPER OFF AFTER 1-2 AM WITH PARTIAL CLEARING LATE
(ESPECIALLY W). MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING ERN VA. LOW TONIGHT
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE REGION WEDS
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXITS THE NE COAST. OVERALL...THERE IS LITTLE
FORCING IN DEEP LAYER WLY FLOW. SFC TROUGH ALSO LOCATES ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. WILL RETAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOW END CHANCE POPS CLOSER TO THE
COAST WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC TROUGH.
HIGHS FORECAST IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDS NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S.

THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN NC AS ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER UPPER WAVE LOCATES OVER THE
MID MS VALLEY. 20-30 POPS THURS MORNING INCREASE TO 40-50 POPS
THURS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND CONTINUING THRU THE OVERNIGHT.
PWATS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 2+ INCHES THURS NIGHT IN DEEP LAYER
SWLY FLOW. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE IN CONCERT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY
LIFTING ALONG THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL THURS NIGHT. DUE TO THE RECENT RAINFALL (UP TO 600
PCT OF NORMAL THIS PAST WEEK)...MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AND HAS
BEEN HEADLINED IN THE HWO. 72 HR RAINFALL TOTALS (INCLUDING TODAY)
RANGE FROM OVER AN INCH FROM THE PIEDMONT INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH NEAR THE COAST. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS THURS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S. LOWS THURS NIGHT
IN THE MID- UPPER 60S NORTH TO LOW 70S SOUTH.

BOUNDARY AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION FRI AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID MS VALLEY LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL
MAINTAIN SOLID CHANCE POPS FRI AS SEVERAL WAVES CONTINUE TO SPREAD
OVER THE REGION. HIGHS FRI IN THE LOW-MID 80S (UPPER 70S FAR NW)
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY-CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPSTREAM BLOCKING PATTERN RESULTS IN LITTLE MOVEMENT OF OVERALL
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THRU THE HOLIDAY WKEND / MED RANGE PERIOD.

MODELS STALL WAVY FRONTAL BNDRY ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC REGION SAT.
GFS WANTS TO PUSH THIS BNDRY INTO NORTH CAROLINA SUN AS WEAK HIGH
PRS BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WHILE ECMWF KEEPS THE
BNDRY NEARLY STNRY ACROSS THE RGN. THE BNDRY PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRNT MONDAY WITH A TROF LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
THUS LOOK FOR CHC POPS EACH DAY AS TIMING OF ANY ONE DISTURBANCE
RATHER PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT.

HIGHS SAT / SUN IN THE M-U80S...85-90 MON / TUE. LOWS U60S-M70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. S/SW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AS THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN NW OF THE AREA. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR FOR ISO SHRAS/TSTMS ERLY THIS MORNG NR RIC/SBY. TSTMS
ARE PSBL AGAIN THIS AFTN AND EVENING THOUGH NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS
YESTERDAY.

OUTLOOK...A FRONTAL SYSTM WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE CONVECTION. THERE
WILL BE CHANCES FOR AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS EACH DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES ON THU AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL KEEP CRNT SCA HEADLINES UP FOR THE CHES BAY TONIGHT AS PRS
GRDNT TIGHTENS ENOUGH FOR MARGINAL (15-20 KT) WNDS. GRDNT RELAXES
WED MORNING KEEPING A WEAKER SLY/SWLY FLOW (10-15 KT) THRU WED NIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT. THE FRNT DROPS INTO THE AREA FM
THE NW ON THU...WITH WINDS BCMG LIGHT AND VRBL AS THE FRNT STALLS
THE LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THU NIGHT AND FRI. WAVES AVGG
1-2 FT AND SEAS AVGG 2-4 FT THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/SAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...MAS/LSA
MARINE...MPR



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010643
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
243 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE
FRONT LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 378 HAS EXPIRED. HOWEVER...LATEST
REGIONAL RADAR DEPICTS SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND NE NC...WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE PIEDMONT. THIS IN
RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND SFC TROUGH DROPPING OVER THE
PIEDMONT. SPC MESOANALYSIS CONTINUES TO DEPICT 1000-1500 J/KG
MLCAPE ALONG WITH 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THE RESULT WILL BE
AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS THRU 12-2 AM. SEVERE THREAT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A NEW WATCH.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

POPS TAPER OFF AFTER 1-2 AM WITH PARTIAL CLEARING LATE
(ESPECIALLY W). MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING ERN VA. LOW TONIGHT
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE REGION WEDS
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXITS THE NE COAST. OVERALL...THERE IS LITTLE
FORCING IN DEEP LAYER WLY FLOW. SFC TROUGH ALSO LOCATES ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. WILL RETAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOW END CHANCE POPS CLOSER TO THE
COAST WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC TROUGH.
HIGHS FORECAST IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDS NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S.

THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN NC AS ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER UPPER WAVE LOCATES OVER THE
MID MS VALLEY. 20-30 POPS THURS MORNING INCREASE TO 40-50 POPS
THURS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND CONTINUING THRU THE OVERNIGHT.
PWATS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 2+ INCHES THURS NIGHT IN DEEP LAYER
SWLY FLOW. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE IN CONCERT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY
LIFTING ALONG THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL THURS NIGHT. DUE TO THE RECENT RAINFALL (UP TO 600
PCT OF NORMAL THIS PAST WEEK)...MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AND HAS
BEEN HEADLINED IN THE HWO. 72 HR RAINFALL TOTALS (INCLUDING TODAY)
RANGE FROM OVER AN INCH FROM THE PIEDMONT INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH NEAR THE COAST. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS THURS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S. LOWS THURS NIGHT
IN THE MID- UPPER 60S NORTH TO LOW 70S SOUTH.

BOUNDARY AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION FRI AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID MS VALLEY LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL
MAINTAIN SOLID CHANCE POPS FRI AS SEVERAL WAVES CONTINUE TO SPREAD
OVER THE REGION. HIGHS FRI IN THE LOW-MID 80S (UPPER 70S FAR NW)
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY-CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPSTREAM BLOCKING PATTERN RESULTS IN LITTLE MOVEMENT OF OVERALL
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THRU THE HOLIDAY WKEND / MED RANGE PERIOD.

MODELS STALL WAVY FRONTAL BNDRY ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC REGION SAT.
GFS WANTS TO PUSH THIS BNDRY INTO NORTH CAROLINA SUN AS WEAK HIGH
PRS BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WHILE ECMWF KEEPS THE
BNDRY NEARLY STNRY ACROSS THE RGN. THE BNDRY PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRNT MONDAY WITH A TROF LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
THUS LOOK FOR CHC POPS EACH DAY AS TIMING OF ANY ONE DISTURBANCE
RATHER PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT.

HIGHS SAT / SUN IN THE M-U80S...85-90 MON / TUE. LOWS U60S-M70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. S/SW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AS THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN NW OF THE AREA. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR FOR ISO SHRAS/TSTMS ERLY THIS MORNG NR RIC/SBY. TSTMS
ARE PSBL AGAIN THIS AFTN AND EVENING THOUGH NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS
YESTERDAY.

OUTLOOK...A FRONTAL SYSTM WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE CONVECTION. THERE
WILL BE CHANCES FOR AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS EACH DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES ON THU AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL KEEP CRNT SCA HEADLINES UP FOR THE CHES BAY TONIGHT AS PRS
GRDNT TIGHTENS ENOUGH FOR MARGINAL (15-20 KT) WNDS. GRDNT RELAXES
WED MORNING KEEPING A WEAKER SLY/SWLY FLOW (10-15 KT) THRU WED NIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT. THE FRNT DROPS INTO THE AREA FM
THE NW ON THU...WITH WINDS BCMG LIGHT AND VRBL AS THE FRNT STALLS
THE LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THU NIGHT AND FRI. WAVES AVGG
1-2 FT AND SEAS AVGG 2-4 FT THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/SAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...MAS/LSA
MARINE...MPR



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010643
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
243 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE
FRONT LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 378 HAS EXPIRED. HOWEVER...LATEST
REGIONAL RADAR DEPICTS SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND NE NC...WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE PIEDMONT. THIS IN
RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND SFC TROUGH DROPPING OVER THE
PIEDMONT. SPC MESOANALYSIS CONTINUES TO DEPICT 1000-1500 J/KG
MLCAPE ALONG WITH 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THE RESULT WILL BE
AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS THRU 12-2 AM. SEVERE THREAT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A NEW WATCH.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

POPS TAPER OFF AFTER 1-2 AM WITH PARTIAL CLEARING LATE
(ESPECIALLY W). MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING ERN VA. LOW TONIGHT
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE REGION WEDS
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXITS THE NE COAST. OVERALL...THERE IS LITTLE
FORCING IN DEEP LAYER WLY FLOW. SFC TROUGH ALSO LOCATES ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. WILL RETAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOW END CHANCE POPS CLOSER TO THE
COAST WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC TROUGH.
HIGHS FORECAST IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDS NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S.

THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN NC AS ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER UPPER WAVE LOCATES OVER THE
MID MS VALLEY. 20-30 POPS THURS MORNING INCREASE TO 40-50 POPS
THURS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND CONTINUING THRU THE OVERNIGHT.
PWATS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 2+ INCHES THURS NIGHT IN DEEP LAYER
SWLY FLOW. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE IN CONCERT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY
LIFTING ALONG THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL THURS NIGHT. DUE TO THE RECENT RAINFALL (UP TO 600
PCT OF NORMAL THIS PAST WEEK)...MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AND HAS
BEEN HEADLINED IN THE HWO. 72 HR RAINFALL TOTALS (INCLUDING TODAY)
RANGE FROM OVER AN INCH FROM THE PIEDMONT INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH NEAR THE COAST. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS THURS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S. LOWS THURS NIGHT
IN THE MID- UPPER 60S NORTH TO LOW 70S SOUTH.

BOUNDARY AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION FRI AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID MS VALLEY LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL
MAINTAIN SOLID CHANCE POPS FRI AS SEVERAL WAVES CONTINUE TO SPREAD
OVER THE REGION. HIGHS FRI IN THE LOW-MID 80S (UPPER 70S FAR NW)
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY-CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPSTREAM BLOCKING PATTERN RESULTS IN LITTLE MOVEMENT OF OVERALL
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THRU THE HOLIDAY WKEND / MED RANGE PERIOD.

MODELS STALL WAVY FRONTAL BNDRY ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC REGION SAT.
GFS WANTS TO PUSH THIS BNDRY INTO NORTH CAROLINA SUN AS WEAK HIGH
PRS BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WHILE ECMWF KEEPS THE
BNDRY NEARLY STNRY ACROSS THE RGN. THE BNDRY PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRNT MONDAY WITH A TROF LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
THUS LOOK FOR CHC POPS EACH DAY AS TIMING OF ANY ONE DISTURBANCE
RATHER PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT.

HIGHS SAT / SUN IN THE M-U80S...85-90 MON / TUE. LOWS U60S-M70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. S/SW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AS THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN NW OF THE AREA. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR FOR ISO SHRAS/TSTMS ERLY THIS MORNG NR RIC/SBY. TSTMS
ARE PSBL AGAIN THIS AFTN AND EVENING THOUGH NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS
YESTERDAY.

OUTLOOK...A FRONTAL SYSTM WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE CONVECTION. THERE
WILL BE CHANCES FOR AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS EACH DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES ON THU AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL KEEP CRNT SCA HEADLINES UP FOR THE CHES BAY TONIGHT AS PRS
GRDNT TIGHTENS ENOUGH FOR MARGINAL (15-20 KT) WNDS. GRDNT RELAXES
WED MORNING KEEPING A WEAKER SLY/SWLY FLOW (10-15 KT) THRU WED NIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT. THE FRNT DROPS INTO THE AREA FM
THE NW ON THU...WITH WINDS BCMG LIGHT AND VRBL AS THE FRNT STALLS
THE LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THU NIGHT AND FRI. WAVES AVGG
1-2 FT AND SEAS AVGG 2-4 FT THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/SAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...MAS/LSA
MARINE...MPR



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010643
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
243 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE
FRONT LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 378 HAS EXPIRED. HOWEVER...LATEST
REGIONAL RADAR DEPICTS SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND NE NC...WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE PIEDMONT. THIS IN
RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND SFC TROUGH DROPPING OVER THE
PIEDMONT. SPC MESOANALYSIS CONTINUES TO DEPICT 1000-1500 J/KG
MLCAPE ALONG WITH 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THE RESULT WILL BE
AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS THRU 12-2 AM. SEVERE THREAT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A NEW WATCH.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

POPS TAPER OFF AFTER 1-2 AM WITH PARTIAL CLEARING LATE
(ESPECIALLY W). MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING ERN VA. LOW TONIGHT
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE REGION WEDS
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXITS THE NE COAST. OVERALL...THERE IS LITTLE
FORCING IN DEEP LAYER WLY FLOW. SFC TROUGH ALSO LOCATES ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. WILL RETAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOW END CHANCE POPS CLOSER TO THE
COAST WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC TROUGH.
HIGHS FORECAST IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDS NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S.

THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN NC AS ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER UPPER WAVE LOCATES OVER THE
MID MS VALLEY. 20-30 POPS THURS MORNING INCREASE TO 40-50 POPS
THURS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND CONTINUING THRU THE OVERNIGHT.
PWATS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 2+ INCHES THURS NIGHT IN DEEP LAYER
SWLY FLOW. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE IN CONCERT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY
LIFTING ALONG THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL THURS NIGHT. DUE TO THE RECENT RAINFALL (UP TO 600
PCT OF NORMAL THIS PAST WEEK)...MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AND HAS
BEEN HEADLINED IN THE HWO. 72 HR RAINFALL TOTALS (INCLUDING TODAY)
RANGE FROM OVER AN INCH FROM THE PIEDMONT INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH NEAR THE COAST. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS THURS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S. LOWS THURS NIGHT
IN THE MID- UPPER 60S NORTH TO LOW 70S SOUTH.

BOUNDARY AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION FRI AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID MS VALLEY LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL
MAINTAIN SOLID CHANCE POPS FRI AS SEVERAL WAVES CONTINUE TO SPREAD
OVER THE REGION. HIGHS FRI IN THE LOW-MID 80S (UPPER 70S FAR NW)
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY-CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPSTREAM BLOCKING PATTERN RESULTS IN LITTLE MOVEMENT OF OVERALL
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THRU THE HOLIDAY WKEND / MED RANGE PERIOD.

MODELS STALL WAVY FRONTAL BNDRY ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC REGION SAT.
GFS WANTS TO PUSH THIS BNDRY INTO NORTH CAROLINA SUN AS WEAK HIGH
PRS BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WHILE ECMWF KEEPS THE
BNDRY NEARLY STNRY ACROSS THE RGN. THE BNDRY PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRNT MONDAY WITH A TROF LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
THUS LOOK FOR CHC POPS EACH DAY AS TIMING OF ANY ONE DISTURBANCE
RATHER PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT.

HIGHS SAT / SUN IN THE M-U80S...85-90 MON / TUE. LOWS U60S-M70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. S/SW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AS THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN NW OF THE AREA. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR FOR ISO SHRAS/TSTMS ERLY THIS MORNG NR RIC/SBY. TSTMS
ARE PSBL AGAIN THIS AFTN AND EVENING THOUGH NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS
YESTERDAY.

OUTLOOK...A FRONTAL SYSTM WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE CONVECTION. THERE
WILL BE CHANCES FOR AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS EACH DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES ON THU AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL KEEP CRNT SCA HEADLINES UP FOR THE CHES BAY TONIGHT AS PRS
GRDNT TIGHTENS ENOUGH FOR MARGINAL (15-20 KT) WNDS. GRDNT RELAXES
WED MORNING KEEPING A WEAKER SLY/SWLY FLOW (10-15 KT) THRU WED NIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT. THE FRNT DROPS INTO THE AREA FM
THE NW ON THU...WITH WINDS BCMG LIGHT AND VRBL AS THE FRNT STALLS
THE LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THU NIGHT AND FRI. WAVES AVGG
1-2 FT AND SEAS AVGG 2-4 FT THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/SAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...MAS/LSA
MARINE...MPR



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010643
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
243 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE
FRONT LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 378 HAS EXPIRED. HOWEVER...LATEST
REGIONAL RADAR DEPICTS SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND NE NC...WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE PIEDMONT. THIS IN
RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND SFC TROUGH DROPPING OVER THE
PIEDMONT. SPC MESOANALYSIS CONTINUES TO DEPICT 1000-1500 J/KG
MLCAPE ALONG WITH 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THE RESULT WILL BE
AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS THRU 12-2 AM. SEVERE THREAT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A NEW WATCH.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

POPS TAPER OFF AFTER 1-2 AM WITH PARTIAL CLEARING LATE
(ESPECIALLY W). MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING ERN VA. LOW TONIGHT
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE REGION WEDS
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXITS THE NE COAST. OVERALL...THERE IS LITTLE
FORCING IN DEEP LAYER WLY FLOW. SFC TROUGH ALSO LOCATES ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. WILL RETAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOW END CHANCE POPS CLOSER TO THE
COAST WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC TROUGH.
HIGHS FORECAST IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDS NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S.

THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN NC AS ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER UPPER WAVE LOCATES OVER THE
MID MS VALLEY. 20-30 POPS THURS MORNING INCREASE TO 40-50 POPS
THURS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND CONTINUING THRU THE OVERNIGHT.
PWATS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 2+ INCHES THURS NIGHT IN DEEP LAYER
SWLY FLOW. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE IN CONCERT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY
LIFTING ALONG THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL THURS NIGHT. DUE TO THE RECENT RAINFALL (UP TO 600
PCT OF NORMAL THIS PAST WEEK)...MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AND HAS
BEEN HEADLINED IN THE HWO. 72 HR RAINFALL TOTALS (INCLUDING TODAY)
RANGE FROM OVER AN INCH FROM THE PIEDMONT INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH NEAR THE COAST. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS THURS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S. LOWS THURS NIGHT
IN THE MID- UPPER 60S NORTH TO LOW 70S SOUTH.

BOUNDARY AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION FRI AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID MS VALLEY LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL
MAINTAIN SOLID CHANCE POPS FRI AS SEVERAL WAVES CONTINUE TO SPREAD
OVER THE REGION. HIGHS FRI IN THE LOW-MID 80S (UPPER 70S FAR NW)
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY-CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPSTREAM BLOCKING PATTERN RESULTS IN LITTLE MOVEMENT OF OVERALL
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THRU THE HOLIDAY WKEND / MED RANGE PERIOD.

MODELS STALL WAVY FRONTAL BNDRY ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC REGION SAT.
GFS WANTS TO PUSH THIS BNDRY INTO NORTH CAROLINA SUN AS WEAK HIGH
PRS BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WHILE ECMWF KEEPS THE
BNDRY NEARLY STNRY ACROSS THE RGN. THE BNDRY PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRNT MONDAY WITH A TROF LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
THUS LOOK FOR CHC POPS EACH DAY AS TIMING OF ANY ONE DISTURBANCE
RATHER PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT.

HIGHS SAT / SUN IN THE M-U80S...85-90 MON / TUE. LOWS U60S-M70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. S/SW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AS THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN NW OF THE AREA. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR FOR ISO SHRAS/TSTMS ERLY THIS MORNG NR RIC/SBY. TSTMS
ARE PSBL AGAIN THIS AFTN AND EVENING THOUGH NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS
YESTERDAY.

OUTLOOK...A FRONTAL SYSTM WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE CONVECTION. THERE
WILL BE CHANCES FOR AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS EACH DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES ON THU AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL KEEP CRNT SCA HEADLINES UP FOR THE CHES BAY TONIGHT AS PRS
GRDNT TIGHTENS ENOUGH FOR MARGINAL (15-20 KT) WNDS. GRDNT RELAXES
WED MORNING KEEPING A WEAKER SLY/SWLY FLOW (10-15 KT) THRU WED NIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT. THE FRNT DROPS INTO THE AREA FM
THE NW ON THU...WITH WINDS BCMG LIGHT AND VRBL AS THE FRNT STALLS
THE LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THU NIGHT AND FRI. WAVES AVGG
1-2 FT AND SEAS AVGG 2-4 FT THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/SAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...MAS/LSA
MARINE...MPR



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010643
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
243 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE
FRONT LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 378 HAS EXPIRED. HOWEVER...LATEST
REGIONAL RADAR DEPICTS SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND NE NC...WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE PIEDMONT. THIS IN
RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND SFC TROUGH DROPPING OVER THE
PIEDMONT. SPC MESOANALYSIS CONTINUES TO DEPICT 1000-1500 J/KG
MLCAPE ALONG WITH 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THE RESULT WILL BE
AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS THRU 12-2 AM. SEVERE THREAT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A NEW WATCH.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

POPS TAPER OFF AFTER 1-2 AM WITH PARTIAL CLEARING LATE
(ESPECIALLY W). MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING ERN VA. LOW TONIGHT
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE REGION WEDS
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXITS THE NE COAST. OVERALL...THERE IS LITTLE
FORCING IN DEEP LAYER WLY FLOW. SFC TROUGH ALSO LOCATES ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. WILL RETAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOW END CHANCE POPS CLOSER TO THE
COAST WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC TROUGH.
HIGHS FORECAST IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDS NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S.

THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN NC AS ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER UPPER WAVE LOCATES OVER THE
MID MS VALLEY. 20-30 POPS THURS MORNING INCREASE TO 40-50 POPS
THURS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND CONTINUING THRU THE OVERNIGHT.
PWATS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 2+ INCHES THURS NIGHT IN DEEP LAYER
SWLY FLOW. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE IN CONCERT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY
LIFTING ALONG THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL THURS NIGHT. DUE TO THE RECENT RAINFALL (UP TO 600
PCT OF NORMAL THIS PAST WEEK)...MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AND HAS
BEEN HEADLINED IN THE HWO. 72 HR RAINFALL TOTALS (INCLUDING TODAY)
RANGE FROM OVER AN INCH FROM THE PIEDMONT INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH NEAR THE COAST. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS THURS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S. LOWS THURS NIGHT
IN THE MID- UPPER 60S NORTH TO LOW 70S SOUTH.

BOUNDARY AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION FRI AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID MS VALLEY LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL
MAINTAIN SOLID CHANCE POPS FRI AS SEVERAL WAVES CONTINUE TO SPREAD
OVER THE REGION. HIGHS FRI IN THE LOW-MID 80S (UPPER 70S FAR NW)
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY-CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPSTREAM BLOCKING PATTERN RESULTS IN LITTLE MOVEMENT OF OVERALL
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THRU THE HOLIDAY WKEND / MED RANGE PERIOD.

MODELS STALL WAVY FRONTAL BNDRY ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC REGION SAT.
GFS WANTS TO PUSH THIS BNDRY INTO NORTH CAROLINA SUN AS WEAK HIGH
PRS BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WHILE ECMWF KEEPS THE
BNDRY NEARLY STNRY ACROSS THE RGN. THE BNDRY PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRNT MONDAY WITH A TROF LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
THUS LOOK FOR CHC POPS EACH DAY AS TIMING OF ANY ONE DISTURBANCE
RATHER PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT.

HIGHS SAT / SUN IN THE M-U80S...85-90 MON / TUE. LOWS U60S-M70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. S/SW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AS THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN NW OF THE AREA. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR FOR ISO SHRAS/TSTMS ERLY THIS MORNG NR RIC/SBY. TSTMS
ARE PSBL AGAIN THIS AFTN AND EVENING THOUGH NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS
YESTERDAY.

OUTLOOK...A FRONTAL SYSTM WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE CONVECTION. THERE
WILL BE CHANCES FOR AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS EACH DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES ON THU AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL KEEP CRNT SCA HEADLINES UP FOR THE CHES BAY TONIGHT AS PRS
GRDNT TIGHTENS ENOUGH FOR MARGINAL (15-20 KT) WNDS. GRDNT RELAXES
WED MORNING KEEPING A WEAKER SLY/SWLY FLOW (10-15 KT) THRU WED NIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT. THE FRNT DROPS INTO THE AREA FM
THE NW ON THU...WITH WINDS BCMG LIGHT AND VRBL AS THE FRNT STALLS
THE LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THU NIGHT AND FRI. WAVES AVGG
1-2 FT AND SEAS AVGG 2-4 FT THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/SAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...MAS/LSA
MARINE...MPR



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010643
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
243 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE
FRONT LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 378 HAS EXPIRED. HOWEVER...LATEST
REGIONAL RADAR DEPICTS SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND NE NC...WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE PIEDMONT. THIS IN
RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND SFC TROUGH DROPPING OVER THE
PIEDMONT. SPC MESOANALYSIS CONTINUES TO DEPICT 1000-1500 J/KG
MLCAPE ALONG WITH 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THE RESULT WILL BE
AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS THRU 12-2 AM. SEVERE THREAT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A NEW WATCH.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

POPS TAPER OFF AFTER 1-2 AM WITH PARTIAL CLEARING LATE
(ESPECIALLY W). MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING ERN VA. LOW TONIGHT
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE REGION WEDS
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXITS THE NE COAST. OVERALL...THERE IS LITTLE
FORCING IN DEEP LAYER WLY FLOW. SFC TROUGH ALSO LOCATES ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. WILL RETAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOW END CHANCE POPS CLOSER TO THE
COAST WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC TROUGH.
HIGHS FORECAST IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDS NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S.

THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN NC AS ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER UPPER WAVE LOCATES OVER THE
MID MS VALLEY. 20-30 POPS THURS MORNING INCREASE TO 40-50 POPS
THURS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND CONTINUING THRU THE OVERNIGHT.
PWATS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 2+ INCHES THURS NIGHT IN DEEP LAYER
SWLY FLOW. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE IN CONCERT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY
LIFTING ALONG THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL THURS NIGHT. DUE TO THE RECENT RAINFALL (UP TO 600
PCT OF NORMAL THIS PAST WEEK)...MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AND HAS
BEEN HEADLINED IN THE HWO. 72 HR RAINFALL TOTALS (INCLUDING TODAY)
RANGE FROM OVER AN INCH FROM THE PIEDMONT INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH NEAR THE COAST. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS THURS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S. LOWS THURS NIGHT
IN THE MID- UPPER 60S NORTH TO LOW 70S SOUTH.

BOUNDARY AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION FRI AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID MS VALLEY LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL
MAINTAIN SOLID CHANCE POPS FRI AS SEVERAL WAVES CONTINUE TO SPREAD
OVER THE REGION. HIGHS FRI IN THE LOW-MID 80S (UPPER 70S FAR NW)
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY-CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPSTREAM BLOCKING PATTERN RESULTS IN LITTLE MOVEMENT OF OVERALL
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THRU THE HOLIDAY WKEND / MED RANGE PERIOD.

MODELS STALL WAVY FRONTAL BNDRY ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC REGION SAT.
GFS WANTS TO PUSH THIS BNDRY INTO NORTH CAROLINA SUN AS WEAK HIGH
PRS BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WHILE ECMWF KEEPS THE
BNDRY NEARLY STNRY ACROSS THE RGN. THE BNDRY PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRNT MONDAY WITH A TROF LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
THUS LOOK FOR CHC POPS EACH DAY AS TIMING OF ANY ONE DISTURBANCE
RATHER PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT.

HIGHS SAT / SUN IN THE M-U80S...85-90 MON / TUE. LOWS U60S-M70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. S/SW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AS THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN NW OF THE AREA. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR FOR ISO SHRAS/TSTMS ERLY THIS MORNG NR RIC/SBY. TSTMS
ARE PSBL AGAIN THIS AFTN AND EVENING THOUGH NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS
YESTERDAY.

OUTLOOK...A FRONTAL SYSTM WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE CONVECTION. THERE
WILL BE CHANCES FOR AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS EACH DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES ON THU AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL KEEP CRNT SCA HEADLINES UP FOR THE CHES BAY TONIGHT AS PRS
GRDNT TIGHTENS ENOUGH FOR MARGINAL (15-20 KT) WNDS. GRDNT RELAXES
WED MORNING KEEPING A WEAKER SLY/SWLY FLOW (10-15 KT) THRU WED NIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT. THE FRNT DROPS INTO THE AREA FM
THE NW ON THU...WITH WINDS BCMG LIGHT AND VRBL AS THE FRNT STALLS
THE LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THU NIGHT AND FRI. WAVES AVGG
1-2 FT AND SEAS AVGG 2-4 FT THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/SAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...MAS/LSA
MARINE...MPR



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010552
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
152 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST POPS AND WEATHER BASED ON THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS. CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTS TO MOVE ALONG
AND NORTH OF I 80...UNDER MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WHICH IS
MAINTAINING INSTABILITY.

PREVIOUS...
SHOWER CHANCES WERE CONTINUED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION.
USED A NAM/HRR/GFS COMBO TO CONSTRUCT...TIME...AND CEASE POPS BY
THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE A SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT PLOUGHS
SUFFICIENTLY SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO INITIATE SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE I 70
CORRIDOR...WITH PRECIP PROBABILITIES INCREASING NORTHWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A TRAILING DISTURBANCE AMPLIFIES THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE REGION.

THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WAS THUS RADICALLY CHANGED AND NOW
INCLUDES LIKELY POPS FOR AREAS FROM PIT SOUTHWARD...ALL BASED ON
A BLEND OF SREF...AND THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC TREND OF GFS AND
NAM.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STAY JUST BELOW OR NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE NOT NEEDED TO MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT COMPARED TO
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A
BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME DRY DAYS. HARD TO PINPOINT ANY
PARTICULAR POINT WHEN RAIN IS LIKELY...BUT SO FAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT SHIFT MUCH DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND
LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR IN SHOWERS MAY BRUSH OH PORTS BEFORE MIDNIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING NEAR THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING MVFR/ISOLATED IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS CEILINGS LIFT AND EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT
UNDER BUILDING RIDGING.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
SOUTH OF PIT WITH A CROSSING DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010552
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
152 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST POPS AND WEATHER BASED ON THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS. CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTS TO MOVE ALONG
AND NORTH OF I 80...UNDER MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WHICH IS
MAINTAINING INSTABILITY.

PREVIOUS...
SHOWER CHANCES WERE CONTINUED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION.
USED A NAM/HRR/GFS COMBO TO CONSTRUCT...TIME...AND CEASE POPS BY
THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE A SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT PLOUGHS
SUFFICIENTLY SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO INITIATE SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE I 70
CORRIDOR...WITH PRECIP PROBABILITIES INCREASING NORTHWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A TRAILING DISTURBANCE AMPLIFIES THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE REGION.

THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WAS THUS RADICALLY CHANGED AND NOW
INCLUDES LIKELY POPS FOR AREAS FROM PIT SOUTHWARD...ALL BASED ON
A BLEND OF SREF...AND THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC TREND OF GFS AND
NAM.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STAY JUST BELOW OR NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE NOT NEEDED TO MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT COMPARED TO
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A
BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME DRY DAYS. HARD TO PINPOINT ANY
PARTICULAR POINT WHEN RAIN IS LIKELY...BUT SO FAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT SHIFT MUCH DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND
LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR IN SHOWERS MAY BRUSH OH PORTS BEFORE MIDNIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING NEAR THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING MVFR/ISOLATED IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS CEILINGS LIFT AND EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT
UNDER BUILDING RIDGING.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
SOUTH OF PIT WITH A CROSSING DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010552
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
152 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST POPS AND WEATHER BASED ON THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS. CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTS TO MOVE ALONG
AND NORTH OF I 80...UNDER MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WHICH IS
MAINTAINING INSTABILITY.

PREVIOUS...
SHOWER CHANCES WERE CONTINUED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION.
USED A NAM/HRR/GFS COMBO TO CONSTRUCT...TIME...AND CEASE POPS BY
THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE A SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT PLOUGHS
SUFFICIENTLY SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO INITIATE SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE I 70
CORRIDOR...WITH PRECIP PROBABILITIES INCREASING NORTHWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A TRAILING DISTURBANCE AMPLIFIES THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE REGION.

THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WAS THUS RADICALLY CHANGED AND NOW
INCLUDES LIKELY POPS FOR AREAS FROM PIT SOUTHWARD...ALL BASED ON
A BLEND OF SREF...AND THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC TREND OF GFS AND
NAM.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STAY JUST BELOW OR NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE NOT NEEDED TO MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT COMPARED TO
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A
BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME DRY DAYS. HARD TO PINPOINT ANY
PARTICULAR POINT WHEN RAIN IS LIKELY...BUT SO FAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT SHIFT MUCH DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND
LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR IN SHOWERS MAY BRUSH OH PORTS BEFORE MIDNIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING NEAR THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING MVFR/ISOLATED IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS CEILINGS LIFT AND EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT
UNDER BUILDING RIDGING.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
SOUTH OF PIT WITH A CROSSING DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010552
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
152 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST POPS AND WEATHER BASED ON THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS. CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTS TO MOVE ALONG
AND NORTH OF I 80...UNDER MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WHICH IS
MAINTAINING INSTABILITY.

PREVIOUS...
SHOWER CHANCES WERE CONTINUED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION.
USED A NAM/HRR/GFS COMBO TO CONSTRUCT...TIME...AND CEASE POPS BY
THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE A SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT PLOUGHS
SUFFICIENTLY SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO INITIATE SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE I 70
CORRIDOR...WITH PRECIP PROBABILITIES INCREASING NORTHWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A TRAILING DISTURBANCE AMPLIFIES THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE REGION.

THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WAS THUS RADICALLY CHANGED AND NOW
INCLUDES LIKELY POPS FOR AREAS FROM PIT SOUTHWARD...ALL BASED ON
A BLEND OF SREF...AND THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC TREND OF GFS AND
NAM.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STAY JUST BELOW OR NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE NOT NEEDED TO MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT COMPARED TO
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A
BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME DRY DAYS. HARD TO PINPOINT ANY
PARTICULAR POINT WHEN RAIN IS LIKELY...BUT SO FAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT SHIFT MUCH DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND
LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR IN SHOWERS MAY BRUSH OH PORTS BEFORE MIDNIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING NEAR THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING MVFR/ISOLATED IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS CEILINGS LIFT AND EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT
UNDER BUILDING RIDGING.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
SOUTH OF PIT WITH A CROSSING DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010552
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
152 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST POPS AND WEATHER BASED ON THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS. CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTS TO MOVE ALONG
AND NORTH OF I 80...UNDER MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WHICH IS
MAINTAINING INSTABILITY.

PREVIOUS...
SHOWER CHANCES WERE CONTINUED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION.
USED A NAM/HRR/GFS COMBO TO CONSTRUCT...TIME...AND CEASE POPS BY
THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE A SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT PLOUGHS
SUFFICIENTLY SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO INITIATE SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE I 70
CORRIDOR...WITH PRECIP PROBABILITIES INCREASING NORTHWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A TRAILING DISTURBANCE AMPLIFIES THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE REGION.

THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WAS THUS RADICALLY CHANGED AND NOW
INCLUDES LIKELY POPS FOR AREAS FROM PIT SOUTHWARD...ALL BASED ON
A BLEND OF SREF...AND THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC TREND OF GFS AND
NAM.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STAY JUST BELOW OR NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE NOT NEEDED TO MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT COMPARED TO
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A
BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME DRY DAYS. HARD TO PINPOINT ANY
PARTICULAR POINT WHEN RAIN IS LIKELY...BUT SO FAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT SHIFT MUCH DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND
LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR IN SHOWERS MAY BRUSH OH PORTS BEFORE MIDNIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING NEAR THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING MVFR/ISOLATED IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS CEILINGS LIFT AND EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT
UNDER BUILDING RIDGING.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
SOUTH OF PIT WITH A CROSSING DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010552
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
152 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST POPS AND WEATHER BASED ON THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS. CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTS TO MOVE ALONG
AND NORTH OF I 80...UNDER MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WHICH IS
MAINTAINING INSTABILITY.

PREVIOUS...
SHOWER CHANCES WERE CONTINUED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION.
USED A NAM/HRR/GFS COMBO TO CONSTRUCT...TIME...AND CEASE POPS BY
THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE A SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT PLOUGHS
SUFFICIENTLY SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO INITIATE SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE I 70
CORRIDOR...WITH PRECIP PROBABILITIES INCREASING NORTHWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A TRAILING DISTURBANCE AMPLIFIES THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE REGION.

THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WAS THUS RADICALLY CHANGED AND NOW
INCLUDES LIKELY POPS FOR AREAS FROM PIT SOUTHWARD...ALL BASED ON
A BLEND OF SREF...AND THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC TREND OF GFS AND
NAM.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STAY JUST BELOW OR NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE NOT NEEDED TO MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT COMPARED TO
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A
BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME DRY DAYS. HARD TO PINPOINT ANY
PARTICULAR POINT WHEN RAIN IS LIKELY...BUT SO FAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT SHIFT MUCH DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND
LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR IN SHOWERS MAY BRUSH OH PORTS BEFORE MIDNIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING NEAR THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING MVFR/ISOLATED IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS CEILINGS LIFT AND EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT
UNDER BUILDING RIDGING.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
SOUTH OF PIT WITH A CROSSING DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15



000
FXUS61 KPHI 010500
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
100 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH MID WEEK. AS IT
DOES SO, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO OUR REGION TOMORROW, FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY. THAT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL
JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO COVER AREAS BASICALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE I-95/NEW JERSEY TURNPIKE CORRIDOR. FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IS AROUND 1.5 INCHES/HOUR AND TWO AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE
HEADING TOWARD THE AREA. A LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, AND A LARGE AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH.

PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
GRADUALLY IMPROVING WEATHER...AS BOTH POPS AND SKY COVER DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MAX TEMPS AOA AVG.

ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS IN NJ AND DE SHOULD END BY
EARLY AFTN. PWAT DECREASES STEADILY DURING THE DAY.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM IN ORDER TO FOCUS ON ONGOING SEVERE
THREAT.

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THERE WAS ABOUT A 50/50 SPLIT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND WRF- NMMB INITIALIZATION AT 500MB. FARTHER
DOWNWARD, THE WRF- NMMB LOOKED BETTER. DP/DTING THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE LOOKS STRONGER, WHILE THE ERN NOAM TROF IS BROADER. WHILE
THE MODELS AGREE ON A CONTINUATION OF THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN, THEY VARY ON DETAILS AND CONTINUE TO FIND THEMSELVES IN
ODD POSITIONS WITH THE NORMALLY SLOWER ECMWF AND WRF-NMMB
CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. AS PER
PMDHMD WE ARE LEANING AWAY FROM THESE FASTER RESULTS AND GOING
MORE TOWARD CONTINUITY. REGARDLESS WITH THE CURRENT PATTERN
REMAINING IN PLACE IT IS TOUGH TO CONFIDENTLY PREDICT MUCH
PROLONGED DRY WEATHER.

THE START OF THE LONG TERM DOES HAVE DECENT MODELING CONSENSUS.
WHILE THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA,
SHORT WAVES INTERACTING WITH THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD RE-GENERATE
MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS RATHER QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLD
POCKET ALOFT COUPLED WITH NEAR NEUTRAL LOWER LEVEL THERMAL
FIELDS KEEP PREDICTED TOTAL TOTALS AT OR AROUND 50C.
APPROPRIATELY MIXED LAYER CAPES (ABOVE 1000J IN DELMARVA) PEAK
DURING THE MORNING AND DECREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS
THE COLD POCKET GETS SHEARED. HIGHEST POPS ARE IN THE MORNING WITH
A TRAIL OFF AS THE DAY CONTINUES. STRONGER SHEAR AND CAPE ARE
DECOUPLED AND (CAPE) MAY NOT RAMP UP FAST ENOUGH GIVEN TIMING OF
FEATURES FOR SEVERE WHICH LOOKS BETTER NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA. AIR
MASS SUPPORTIVE OF MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MAX TEMPS MOST OF OUR CWA.

GIVEN THE BRIEF FLATTENING OF THE TROF ALOFT, WE DID NOT CARRY
MUCH OF A CHANCE OF THUNDER INTO THE NIGHT AND NO POPS ANYWHERE
OVERNIGHT. STAT GUIDANCE MINS LOOK REASONABLE.

ON THURSDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF
OUR CWA. FROM HERE THE TIMING OF IMPULSES ON THE FRONT START TO
DIVERGE. REGARDLESS, THE BOUNDARY IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO ACT AS A
TRIGGER WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE (THUS HIGHER POPS) IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF UR CWA. MIXED LAYER CAPES IN DELMARVA REACH THE LOWER
1000S, BUT ARE RELATIVELY LOW FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. THUNDER
CHANCES MAY BE OVERSTATED. THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST A 2-3F DROP OFF
IN MAX TEMPS FROM WED.

NOW THE MODELS REALLY START DIVERGING FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
WITH THE GFS AND CAN GGEM EMPHASIZING FRIDAY WITH THE ECMWF AND
WRF THURSDAY NIGHT. WHERE MODELS AGREE IS THAT INSTABILITY IN OUR
CWA IS MODEST AND THERE ARE HIGHER CHANCES SOUTH THAN NORTH.
TIMING RESOLUTION IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO FORECAST DRY WEATHER FOR
EITHER PERIOD. WE DID STEER HIGHER POPS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
GEFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE OP GFS.

IT DOES NOT BECOME MUCH CLEARER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH THE ECMWF
FORECASTING A DRY DAY AND THE CAN GGEM HAVING A TOTAL WASHOUT. MOST
MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING A SFC LOW ON THE LEVEL OF LAST SATURDAY,
SO FOR NOW WE KEPT THE FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY CLOSE TO
CONTINUITY AND SUMMER CLIMO AND NOT SOUND LIKE A TOTAL LOSS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY REMAIN CLOSE TO CONTINUITY. WITH BOTH THE GFS AND EC
DRY WE HAVE SUNDAY PREDICTED TO BE THE BETTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND
DAYS AND KEPT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR MONDAY AS THE
WARM FRONT IS PREDICTED TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...MAINLY VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT BUT WITH PATCHES OF
MVFR CIGS. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO 30-35 KT IN IFR TSTMS THROUGH
08Z. SE TO SSW FLOW NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. POSSIBLE DEVELOPING EXPANDING PATCHES IFR FOG/STRATUS
AFTER 08Z IF THE SHOWERS DISSIPATE. PLS SEE TAFS AND OBSERVATIONS
FOR DETAILS.

WEDNESDAY...VFR SCT AOA 5000 FT WITH CHANCE OF LEFTOVER SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTN HRS NJ/DE.
WINDS BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST AND MAY GUST TO 20 KT DURING THE
AFTERNOON.


OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR WITH ANY PCPN CHANCES DECREASING
QUICKLY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT SOME
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS DURING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
IMPACT OUTLOOKED TO BE GREATER FOR SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR DE BAY DISCONTINUED THIS EVENING. MAY NEED TO ADD SCA FOR
HAZ 5 FT SEAS FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ALONG
THE ATLC COAST, ESPECIALLY S NJ AND DE COASTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEAS ON THE OCEAN MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN PRE FRONTAL SOUTHERLY FLOW, BUT THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS MIGHT
REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN
AVERAGE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
BASED ON OUR LOCAL FORECAST APPLICATION USING A 4 FOOT SWELL/7
SECOND PERIOD AND SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 11 KNOTS, WE CONTINUE
WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR NEW JERSEY AND LOW RISK
FOR DELAWARE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KPHL TIP BUCKET NOT WORKING AND TRACE RAIN IS INCORRECT THIS
EVENING. POSSIBLY OVER AN INCH. WE`LL ESTIMATE TODAY.

THE CHART BELOW SHOWS RAINFALL STATISTICS AT OUR FOUR BIG CLIMATE
SITES THRU 6/29. THE COLUMNS ARE BROKEN DOWN BY SITE, "POR" (HOW
FAR RECORDS DATE BACK), JUNE 2015 RAINFALL, NORMAL JUNE RAINFALL,
JUNE 2015 RAINFALL RANKING, AS WELL AS THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.

SITE    POR     JUNE    NORMAL    RANK   WETTEST

ILG     1894    12.46    3.50      2ND     13.66 (2013)
ACY     1874     8.04    2.81      2ND      8.45 (1920)
ABE     1922     7.02    3.86      6TH     10.51 (1938)
PHL     1872     7.23    3.08     10TH     10.56 (2013)

AT THIS TIME, IT HAS BEEN THE SECOND WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD IN
BOTH WILMINGTON AND ATLANTIC CITY. WITH ONLY TODAY LEFT IN THE
MONTH, CURRENT FORECASTS DO NOT FAVOR EITHER SITE BREAKING THEIR
ALL-TIME JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. HOWEVER, IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A HEAVY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO CLOSE THE GAP, WHICH IS 0.41 INCHES IN
ATLANTIC CITY AND 1.2 INCHES IN WILMINGTON.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KPHL TIP BUCKET ERRONEOUS AND TICKET OUT ON IT. WILL BE FIXED
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054-
     055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010-012-013-015>019.
DE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001.
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MDZ008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI
NEAR TERM...DRAG/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...FRANCK
LONG TERM...GIGI/JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/GIGI
MARINE...DRAG/GIGI
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 010500
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
100 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH MID WEEK. AS IT
DOES SO, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO OUR REGION TOMORROW, FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY. THAT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL
JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO COVER AREAS BASICALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE I-95/NEW JERSEY TURNPIKE CORRIDOR. FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IS AROUND 1.5 INCHES/HOUR AND TWO AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE
HEADING TOWARD THE AREA. A LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, AND A LARGE AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH.

PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
GRADUALLY IMPROVING WEATHER...AS BOTH POPS AND SKY COVER DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MAX TEMPS AOA AVG.

ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS IN NJ AND DE SHOULD END BY
EARLY AFTN. PWAT DECREASES STEADILY DURING THE DAY.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM IN ORDER TO FOCUS ON ONGOING SEVERE
THREAT.

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THERE WAS ABOUT A 50/50 SPLIT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND WRF- NMMB INITIALIZATION AT 500MB. FARTHER
DOWNWARD, THE WRF- NMMB LOOKED BETTER. DP/DTING THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE LOOKS STRONGER, WHILE THE ERN NOAM TROF IS BROADER. WHILE
THE MODELS AGREE ON A CONTINUATION OF THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN, THEY VARY ON DETAILS AND CONTINUE TO FIND THEMSELVES IN
ODD POSITIONS WITH THE NORMALLY SLOWER ECMWF AND WRF-NMMB
CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. AS PER
PMDHMD WE ARE LEANING AWAY FROM THESE FASTER RESULTS AND GOING
MORE TOWARD CONTINUITY. REGARDLESS WITH THE CURRENT PATTERN
REMAINING IN PLACE IT IS TOUGH TO CONFIDENTLY PREDICT MUCH
PROLONGED DRY WEATHER.

THE START OF THE LONG TERM DOES HAVE DECENT MODELING CONSENSUS.
WHILE THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA,
SHORT WAVES INTERACTING WITH THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD RE-GENERATE
MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS RATHER QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLD
POCKET ALOFT COUPLED WITH NEAR NEUTRAL LOWER LEVEL THERMAL
FIELDS KEEP PREDICTED TOTAL TOTALS AT OR AROUND 50C.
APPROPRIATELY MIXED LAYER CAPES (ABOVE 1000J IN DELMARVA) PEAK
DURING THE MORNING AND DECREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS
THE COLD POCKET GETS SHEARED. HIGHEST POPS ARE IN THE MORNING WITH
A TRAIL OFF AS THE DAY CONTINUES. STRONGER SHEAR AND CAPE ARE
DECOUPLED AND (CAPE) MAY NOT RAMP UP FAST ENOUGH GIVEN TIMING OF
FEATURES FOR SEVERE WHICH LOOKS BETTER NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA. AIR
MASS SUPPORTIVE OF MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MAX TEMPS MOST OF OUR CWA.

GIVEN THE BRIEF FLATTENING OF THE TROF ALOFT, WE DID NOT CARRY
MUCH OF A CHANCE OF THUNDER INTO THE NIGHT AND NO POPS ANYWHERE
OVERNIGHT. STAT GUIDANCE MINS LOOK REASONABLE.

ON THURSDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF
OUR CWA. FROM HERE THE TIMING OF IMPULSES ON THE FRONT START TO
DIVERGE. REGARDLESS, THE BOUNDARY IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO ACT AS A
TRIGGER WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE (THUS HIGHER POPS) IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF UR CWA. MIXED LAYER CAPES IN DELMARVA REACH THE LOWER
1000S, BUT ARE RELATIVELY LOW FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. THUNDER
CHANCES MAY BE OVERSTATED. THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST A 2-3F DROP OFF
IN MAX TEMPS FROM WED.

NOW THE MODELS REALLY START DIVERGING FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
WITH THE GFS AND CAN GGEM EMPHASIZING FRIDAY WITH THE ECMWF AND
WRF THURSDAY NIGHT. WHERE MODELS AGREE IS THAT INSTABILITY IN OUR
CWA IS MODEST AND THERE ARE HIGHER CHANCES SOUTH THAN NORTH.
TIMING RESOLUTION IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO FORECAST DRY WEATHER FOR
EITHER PERIOD. WE DID STEER HIGHER POPS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
GEFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE OP GFS.

IT DOES NOT BECOME MUCH CLEARER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH THE ECMWF
FORECASTING A DRY DAY AND THE CAN GGEM HAVING A TOTAL WASHOUT. MOST
MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING A SFC LOW ON THE LEVEL OF LAST SATURDAY,
SO FOR NOW WE KEPT THE FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY CLOSE TO
CONTINUITY AND SUMMER CLIMO AND NOT SOUND LIKE A TOTAL LOSS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY REMAIN CLOSE TO CONTINUITY. WITH BOTH THE GFS AND EC
DRY WE HAVE SUNDAY PREDICTED TO BE THE BETTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND
DAYS AND KEPT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR MONDAY AS THE
WARM FRONT IS PREDICTED TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...MAINLY VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT BUT WITH PATCHES OF
MVFR CIGS. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO 30-35 KT IN IFR TSTMS THROUGH
08Z. SE TO SSW FLOW NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. POSSIBLE DEVELOPING EXPANDING PATCHES IFR FOG/STRATUS
AFTER 08Z IF THE SHOWERS DISSIPATE. PLS SEE TAFS AND OBSERVATIONS
FOR DETAILS.

WEDNESDAY...VFR SCT AOA 5000 FT WITH CHANCE OF LEFTOVER SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTN HRS NJ/DE.
WINDS BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST AND MAY GUST TO 20 KT DURING THE
AFTERNOON.


OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR WITH ANY PCPN CHANCES DECREASING
QUICKLY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT SOME
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS DURING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
IMPACT OUTLOOKED TO BE GREATER FOR SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR DE BAY DISCONTINUED THIS EVENING. MAY NEED TO ADD SCA FOR
HAZ 5 FT SEAS FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ALONG
THE ATLC COAST, ESPECIALLY S NJ AND DE COASTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEAS ON THE OCEAN MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN PRE FRONTAL SOUTHERLY FLOW, BUT THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS MIGHT
REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN
AVERAGE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
BASED ON OUR LOCAL FORECAST APPLICATION USING A 4 FOOT SWELL/7
SECOND PERIOD AND SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 11 KNOTS, WE CONTINUE
WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR NEW JERSEY AND LOW RISK
FOR DELAWARE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KPHL TIP BUCKET NOT WORKING AND TRACE RAIN IS INCORRECT THIS
EVENING. POSSIBLY OVER AN INCH. WE`LL ESTIMATE TODAY.

THE CHART BELOW SHOWS RAINFALL STATISTICS AT OUR FOUR BIG CLIMATE
SITES THRU 6/29. THE COLUMNS ARE BROKEN DOWN BY SITE, "POR" (HOW
FAR RECORDS DATE BACK), JUNE 2015 RAINFALL, NORMAL JUNE RAINFALL,
JUNE 2015 RAINFALL RANKING, AS WELL AS THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.

SITE    POR     JUNE    NORMAL    RANK   WETTEST

ILG     1894    12.46    3.50      2ND     13.66 (2013)
ACY     1874     8.04    2.81      2ND      8.45 (1920)
ABE     1922     7.02    3.86      6TH     10.51 (1938)
PHL     1872     7.23    3.08     10TH     10.56 (2013)

AT THIS TIME, IT HAS BEEN THE SECOND WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD IN
BOTH WILMINGTON AND ATLANTIC CITY. WITH ONLY TODAY LEFT IN THE
MONTH, CURRENT FORECASTS DO NOT FAVOR EITHER SITE BREAKING THEIR
ALL-TIME JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. HOWEVER, IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A HEAVY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO CLOSE THE GAP, WHICH IS 0.41 INCHES IN
ATLANTIC CITY AND 1.2 INCHES IN WILMINGTON.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KPHL TIP BUCKET ERRONEOUS AND TICKET OUT ON IT. WILL BE FIXED
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054-
     055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010-012-013-015>019.
DE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001.
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MDZ008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI
NEAR TERM...DRAG/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...FRANCK
LONG TERM...GIGI/JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/GIGI
MARINE...DRAG/GIGI
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 010500
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
100 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH MID WEEK. AS IT
DOES SO, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO OUR REGION TOMORROW, FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY. THAT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL
JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO COVER AREAS BASICALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE I-95/NEW JERSEY TURNPIKE CORRIDOR. FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IS AROUND 1.5 INCHES/HOUR AND TWO AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE
HEADING TOWARD THE AREA. A LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, AND A LARGE AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH.

PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
GRADUALLY IMPROVING WEATHER...AS BOTH POPS AND SKY COVER DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MAX TEMPS AOA AVG.

ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS IN NJ AND DE SHOULD END BY
EARLY AFTN. PWAT DECREASES STEADILY DURING THE DAY.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM IN ORDER TO FOCUS ON ONGOING SEVERE
THREAT.

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THERE WAS ABOUT A 50/50 SPLIT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND WRF- NMMB INITIALIZATION AT 500MB. FARTHER
DOWNWARD, THE WRF- NMMB LOOKED BETTER. DP/DTING THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE LOOKS STRONGER, WHILE THE ERN NOAM TROF IS BROADER. WHILE
THE MODELS AGREE ON A CONTINUATION OF THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN, THEY VARY ON DETAILS AND CONTINUE TO FIND THEMSELVES IN
ODD POSITIONS WITH THE NORMALLY SLOWER ECMWF AND WRF-NMMB
CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. AS PER
PMDHMD WE ARE LEANING AWAY FROM THESE FASTER RESULTS AND GOING
MORE TOWARD CONTINUITY. REGARDLESS WITH THE CURRENT PATTERN
REMAINING IN PLACE IT IS TOUGH TO CONFIDENTLY PREDICT MUCH
PROLONGED DRY WEATHER.

THE START OF THE LONG TERM DOES HAVE DECENT MODELING CONSENSUS.
WHILE THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA,
SHORT WAVES INTERACTING WITH THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD RE-GENERATE
MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS RATHER QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLD
POCKET ALOFT COUPLED WITH NEAR NEUTRAL LOWER LEVEL THERMAL
FIELDS KEEP PREDICTED TOTAL TOTALS AT OR AROUND 50C.
APPROPRIATELY MIXED LAYER CAPES (ABOVE 1000J IN DELMARVA) PEAK
DURING THE MORNING AND DECREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS
THE COLD POCKET GETS SHEARED. HIGHEST POPS ARE IN THE MORNING WITH
A TRAIL OFF AS THE DAY CONTINUES. STRONGER SHEAR AND CAPE ARE
DECOUPLED AND (CAPE) MAY NOT RAMP UP FAST ENOUGH GIVEN TIMING OF
FEATURES FOR SEVERE WHICH LOOKS BETTER NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA. AIR
MASS SUPPORTIVE OF MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MAX TEMPS MOST OF OUR CWA.

GIVEN THE BRIEF FLATTENING OF THE TROF ALOFT, WE DID NOT CARRY
MUCH OF A CHANCE OF THUNDER INTO THE NIGHT AND NO POPS ANYWHERE
OVERNIGHT. STAT GUIDANCE MINS LOOK REASONABLE.

ON THURSDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF
OUR CWA. FROM HERE THE TIMING OF IMPULSES ON THE FRONT START TO
DIVERGE. REGARDLESS, THE BOUNDARY IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO ACT AS A
TRIGGER WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE (THUS HIGHER POPS) IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF UR CWA. MIXED LAYER CAPES IN DELMARVA REACH THE LOWER
1000S, BUT ARE RELATIVELY LOW FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. THUNDER
CHANCES MAY BE OVERSTATED. THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST A 2-3F DROP OFF
IN MAX TEMPS FROM WED.

NOW THE MODELS REALLY START DIVERGING FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
WITH THE GFS AND CAN GGEM EMPHASIZING FRIDAY WITH THE ECMWF AND
WRF THURSDAY NIGHT. WHERE MODELS AGREE IS THAT INSTABILITY IN OUR
CWA IS MODEST AND THERE ARE HIGHER CHANCES SOUTH THAN NORTH.
TIMING RESOLUTION IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO FORECAST DRY WEATHER FOR
EITHER PERIOD. WE DID STEER HIGHER POPS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
GEFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE OP GFS.

IT DOES NOT BECOME MUCH CLEARER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH THE ECMWF
FORECASTING A DRY DAY AND THE CAN GGEM HAVING A TOTAL WASHOUT. MOST
MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING A SFC LOW ON THE LEVEL OF LAST SATURDAY,
SO FOR NOW WE KEPT THE FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY CLOSE TO
CONTINUITY AND SUMMER CLIMO AND NOT SOUND LIKE A TOTAL LOSS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY REMAIN CLOSE TO CONTINUITY. WITH BOTH THE GFS AND EC
DRY WE HAVE SUNDAY PREDICTED TO BE THE BETTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND
DAYS AND KEPT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR MONDAY AS THE
WARM FRONT IS PREDICTED TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...MAINLY VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT BUT WITH PATCHES OF
MVFR CIGS. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO 30-35 KT IN IFR TSTMS THROUGH
08Z. SE TO SSW FLOW NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. POSSIBLE DEVELOPING EXPANDING PATCHES IFR FOG/STRATUS
AFTER 08Z IF THE SHOWERS DISSIPATE. PLS SEE TAFS AND OBSERVATIONS
FOR DETAILS.

WEDNESDAY...VFR SCT AOA 5000 FT WITH CHANCE OF LEFTOVER SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTN HRS NJ/DE.
WINDS BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST AND MAY GUST TO 20 KT DURING THE
AFTERNOON.


OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR WITH ANY PCPN CHANCES DECREASING
QUICKLY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT SOME
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS DURING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
IMPACT OUTLOOKED TO BE GREATER FOR SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR DE BAY DISCONTINUED THIS EVENING. MAY NEED TO ADD SCA FOR
HAZ 5 FT SEAS FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ALONG
THE ATLC COAST, ESPECIALLY S NJ AND DE COASTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEAS ON THE OCEAN MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN PRE FRONTAL SOUTHERLY FLOW, BUT THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS MIGHT
REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN
AVERAGE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
BASED ON OUR LOCAL FORECAST APPLICATION USING A 4 FOOT SWELL/7
SECOND PERIOD AND SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 11 KNOTS, WE CONTINUE
WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR NEW JERSEY AND LOW RISK
FOR DELAWARE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KPHL TIP BUCKET NOT WORKING AND TRACE RAIN IS INCORRECT THIS
EVENING. POSSIBLY OVER AN INCH. WE`LL ESTIMATE TODAY.

THE CHART BELOW SHOWS RAINFALL STATISTICS AT OUR FOUR BIG CLIMATE
SITES THRU 6/29. THE COLUMNS ARE BROKEN DOWN BY SITE, "POR" (HOW
FAR RECORDS DATE BACK), JUNE 2015 RAINFALL, NORMAL JUNE RAINFALL,
JUNE 2015 RAINFALL RANKING, AS WELL AS THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.

SITE    POR     JUNE    NORMAL    RANK   WETTEST

ILG     1894    12.46    3.50      2ND     13.66 (2013)
ACY     1874     8.04    2.81      2ND      8.45 (1920)
ABE     1922     7.02    3.86      6TH     10.51 (1938)
PHL     1872     7.23    3.08     10TH     10.56 (2013)

AT THIS TIME, IT HAS BEEN THE SECOND WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD IN
BOTH WILMINGTON AND ATLANTIC CITY. WITH ONLY TODAY LEFT IN THE
MONTH, CURRENT FORECASTS DO NOT FAVOR EITHER SITE BREAKING THEIR
ALL-TIME JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. HOWEVER, IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A HEAVY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO CLOSE THE GAP, WHICH IS 0.41 INCHES IN
ATLANTIC CITY AND 1.2 INCHES IN WILMINGTON.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KPHL TIP BUCKET ERRONEOUS AND TICKET OUT ON IT. WILL BE FIXED
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054-
     055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010-012-013-015>019.
DE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001.
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MDZ008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI
NEAR TERM...DRAG/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...FRANCK
LONG TERM...GIGI/JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/GIGI
MARINE...DRAG/GIGI
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 010500
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
100 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH MID WEEK. AS IT
DOES SO, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO OUR REGION TOMORROW, FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY. THAT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL
JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO COVER AREAS BASICALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE I-95/NEW JERSEY TURNPIKE CORRIDOR. FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IS AROUND 1.5 INCHES/HOUR AND TWO AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE
HEADING TOWARD THE AREA. A LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, AND A LARGE AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH.

PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
GRADUALLY IMPROVING WEATHER...AS BOTH POPS AND SKY COVER DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MAX TEMPS AOA AVG.

ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS IN NJ AND DE SHOULD END BY
EARLY AFTN. PWAT DECREASES STEADILY DURING THE DAY.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM IN ORDER TO FOCUS ON ONGOING SEVERE
THREAT.

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THERE WAS ABOUT A 50/50 SPLIT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND WRF- NMMB INITIALIZATION AT 500MB. FARTHER
DOWNWARD, THE WRF- NMMB LOOKED BETTER. DP/DTING THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE LOOKS STRONGER, WHILE THE ERN NOAM TROF IS BROADER. WHILE
THE MODELS AGREE ON A CONTINUATION OF THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN, THEY VARY ON DETAILS AND CONTINUE TO FIND THEMSELVES IN
ODD POSITIONS WITH THE NORMALLY SLOWER ECMWF AND WRF-NMMB
CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. AS PER
PMDHMD WE ARE LEANING AWAY FROM THESE FASTER RESULTS AND GOING
MORE TOWARD CONTINUITY. REGARDLESS WITH THE CURRENT PATTERN
REMAINING IN PLACE IT IS TOUGH TO CONFIDENTLY PREDICT MUCH
PROLONGED DRY WEATHER.

THE START OF THE LONG TERM DOES HAVE DECENT MODELING CONSENSUS.
WHILE THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA,
SHORT WAVES INTERACTING WITH THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD RE-GENERATE
MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS RATHER QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLD
POCKET ALOFT COUPLED WITH NEAR NEUTRAL LOWER LEVEL THERMAL
FIELDS KEEP PREDICTED TOTAL TOTALS AT OR AROUND 50C.
APPROPRIATELY MIXED LAYER CAPES (ABOVE 1000J IN DELMARVA) PEAK
DURING THE MORNING AND DECREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS
THE COLD POCKET GETS SHEARED. HIGHEST POPS ARE IN THE MORNING WITH
A TRAIL OFF AS THE DAY CONTINUES. STRONGER SHEAR AND CAPE ARE
DECOUPLED AND (CAPE) MAY NOT RAMP UP FAST ENOUGH GIVEN TIMING OF
FEATURES FOR SEVERE WHICH LOOKS BETTER NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA. AIR
MASS SUPPORTIVE OF MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MAX TEMPS MOST OF OUR CWA.

GIVEN THE BRIEF FLATTENING OF THE TROF ALOFT, WE DID NOT CARRY
MUCH OF A CHANCE OF THUNDER INTO THE NIGHT AND NO POPS ANYWHERE
OVERNIGHT. STAT GUIDANCE MINS LOOK REASONABLE.

ON THURSDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF
OUR CWA. FROM HERE THE TIMING OF IMPULSES ON THE FRONT START TO
DIVERGE. REGARDLESS, THE BOUNDARY IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO ACT AS A
TRIGGER WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE (THUS HIGHER POPS) IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF UR CWA. MIXED LAYER CAPES IN DELMARVA REACH THE LOWER
1000S, BUT ARE RELATIVELY LOW FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. THUNDER
CHANCES MAY BE OVERSTATED. THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST A 2-3F DROP OFF
IN MAX TEMPS FROM WED.

NOW THE MODELS REALLY START DIVERGING FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
WITH THE GFS AND CAN GGEM EMPHASIZING FRIDAY WITH THE ECMWF AND
WRF THURSDAY NIGHT. WHERE MODELS AGREE IS THAT INSTABILITY IN OUR
CWA IS MODEST AND THERE ARE HIGHER CHANCES SOUTH THAN NORTH.
TIMING RESOLUTION IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO FORECAST DRY WEATHER FOR
EITHER PERIOD. WE DID STEER HIGHER POPS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
GEFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE OP GFS.

IT DOES NOT BECOME MUCH CLEARER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH THE ECMWF
FORECASTING A DRY DAY AND THE CAN GGEM HAVING A TOTAL WASHOUT. MOST
MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING A SFC LOW ON THE LEVEL OF LAST SATURDAY,
SO FOR NOW WE KEPT THE FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY CLOSE TO
CONTINUITY AND SUMMER CLIMO AND NOT SOUND LIKE A TOTAL LOSS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY REMAIN CLOSE TO CONTINUITY. WITH BOTH THE GFS AND EC
DRY WE HAVE SUNDAY PREDICTED TO BE THE BETTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND
DAYS AND KEPT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR MONDAY AS THE
WARM FRONT IS PREDICTED TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...MAINLY VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT BUT WITH PATCHES OF
MVFR CIGS. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO 30-35 KT IN IFR TSTMS THROUGH
08Z. SE TO SSW FLOW NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. POSSIBLE DEVELOPING EXPANDING PATCHES IFR FOG/STRATUS
AFTER 08Z IF THE SHOWERS DISSIPATE. PLS SEE TAFS AND OBSERVATIONS
FOR DETAILS.

WEDNESDAY...VFR SCT AOA 5000 FT WITH CHANCE OF LEFTOVER SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTN HRS NJ/DE.
WINDS BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST AND MAY GUST TO 20 KT DURING THE
AFTERNOON.


OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR WITH ANY PCPN CHANCES DECREASING
QUICKLY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT SOME
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS DURING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
IMPACT OUTLOOKED TO BE GREATER FOR SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR DE BAY DISCONTINUED THIS EVENING. MAY NEED TO ADD SCA FOR
HAZ 5 FT SEAS FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ALONG
THE ATLC COAST, ESPECIALLY S NJ AND DE COASTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEAS ON THE OCEAN MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN PRE FRONTAL SOUTHERLY FLOW, BUT THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS MIGHT
REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN
AVERAGE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
BASED ON OUR LOCAL FORECAST APPLICATION USING A 4 FOOT SWELL/7
SECOND PERIOD AND SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 11 KNOTS, WE CONTINUE
WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR NEW JERSEY AND LOW RISK
FOR DELAWARE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KPHL TIP BUCKET NOT WORKING AND TRACE RAIN IS INCORRECT THIS
EVENING. POSSIBLY OVER AN INCH. WE`LL ESTIMATE TODAY.

THE CHART BELOW SHOWS RAINFALL STATISTICS AT OUR FOUR BIG CLIMATE
SITES THRU 6/29. THE COLUMNS ARE BROKEN DOWN BY SITE, "POR" (HOW
FAR RECORDS DATE BACK), JUNE 2015 RAINFALL, NORMAL JUNE RAINFALL,
JUNE 2015 RAINFALL RANKING, AS WELL AS THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.

SITE    POR     JUNE    NORMAL    RANK   WETTEST

ILG     1894    12.46    3.50      2ND     13.66 (2013)
ACY     1874     8.04    2.81      2ND      8.45 (1920)
ABE     1922     7.02    3.86      6TH     10.51 (1938)
PHL     1872     7.23    3.08     10TH     10.56 (2013)

AT THIS TIME, IT HAS BEEN THE SECOND WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD IN
BOTH WILMINGTON AND ATLANTIC CITY. WITH ONLY TODAY LEFT IN THE
MONTH, CURRENT FORECASTS DO NOT FAVOR EITHER SITE BREAKING THEIR
ALL-TIME JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. HOWEVER, IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A HEAVY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO CLOSE THE GAP, WHICH IS 0.41 INCHES IN
ATLANTIC CITY AND 1.2 INCHES IN WILMINGTON.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KPHL TIP BUCKET ERRONEOUS AND TICKET OUT ON IT. WILL BE FIXED
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054-
     055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010-012-013-015>019.
DE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001.
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MDZ008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI
NEAR TERM...DRAG/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...FRANCK
LONG TERM...GIGI/JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/GIGI
MARINE...DRAG/GIGI
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010425
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1225 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES CROSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES WERE CONTINUED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION.
USED A NAM/HRR/GFS COMBO TO CONSTRUCT...TIME...AND CEASE POPS BY
THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE A SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT PLOUGHS
SUFFICIENTLY SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO INITIATE SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE I 70
CORRIDOR...WITH PRECIP PROBABILITIES INCREASING NORTHWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A TRAILING DISTURBANCE AMPLIFIES THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE REGION.

THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WAS THUS RADICALLY CHANGED AND NOW
INCLUDES LIKELY POPS FOR AREAS FROM PIT SOUTHWARD...ALL BASED ON
A BLEND OF SREF...AND THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC TREND OF GFS AND
NAM.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STAY JUST BELOW OR NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE NOT NEEDED TO MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT COMPARED TO
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A
BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME DRY DAYS. HARD TO PINPOINT ANY
PARTICULAR POINT WHEN RAIN IS LIKELY...BUT SO FAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT SHIFT MUCH DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND
LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR IN SHOWERS MAY BRUSH OH PORTS BEFORE MIDNIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING NEAR THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING MVFR/ISOLATED IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS CEILINGS LIFT AND EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT
UNDER BUILDING RIDGING.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
SOUTH OF PIT WITH A CROSSING DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010425
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1225 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES CROSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES WERE CONTINUED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION.
USED A NAM/HRR/GFS COMBO TO CONSTRUCT...TIME...AND CEASE POPS BY
THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE A SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT PLOUGHS
SUFFICIENTLY SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO INITIATE SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE I 70
CORRIDOR...WITH PRECIP PROBABILITIES INCREASING NORTHWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A TRAILING DISTURBANCE AMPLIFIES THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE REGION.

THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WAS THUS RADICALLY CHANGED AND NOW
INCLUDES LIKELY POPS FOR AREAS FROM PIT SOUTHWARD...ALL BASED ON
A BLEND OF SREF...AND THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC TREND OF GFS AND
NAM.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STAY JUST BELOW OR NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE NOT NEEDED TO MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT COMPARED TO
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A
BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME DRY DAYS. HARD TO PINPOINT ANY
PARTICULAR POINT WHEN RAIN IS LIKELY...BUT SO FAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT SHIFT MUCH DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND
LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR IN SHOWERS MAY BRUSH OH PORTS BEFORE MIDNIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING NEAR THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING MVFR/ISOLATED IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS CEILINGS LIFT AND EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT
UNDER BUILDING RIDGING.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
SOUTH OF PIT WITH A CROSSING DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010425
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1225 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES CROSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES WERE CONTINUED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION.
USED A NAM/HRR/GFS COMBO TO CONSTRUCT...TIME...AND CEASE POPS BY
THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE A SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT PLOUGHS
SUFFICIENTLY SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO INITIATE SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE I 70
CORRIDOR...WITH PRECIP PROBABILITIES INCREASING NORTHWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A TRAILING DISTURBANCE AMPLIFIES THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE REGION.

THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WAS THUS RADICALLY CHANGED AND NOW
INCLUDES LIKELY POPS FOR AREAS FROM PIT SOUTHWARD...ALL BASED ON
A BLEND OF SREF...AND THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC TREND OF GFS AND
NAM.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STAY JUST BELOW OR NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE NOT NEEDED TO MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT COMPARED TO
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A
BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME DRY DAYS. HARD TO PINPOINT ANY
PARTICULAR POINT WHEN RAIN IS LIKELY...BUT SO FAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT SHIFT MUCH DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND
LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR IN SHOWERS MAY BRUSH OH PORTS BEFORE MIDNIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING NEAR THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING MVFR/ISOLATED IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS CEILINGS LIFT AND EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT
UNDER BUILDING RIDGING.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
SOUTH OF PIT WITH A CROSSING DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010220
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1020 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE
FRONT LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 378 HAS EXPIRED. HOWEVER...LATEST
REGIONAL RADAR DEPICTS SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND NE NC...WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE PIEDMONT. THIS IN
RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND SFC TROUGH DROPPING OVER THE
PIEDMONT. SPC MESOANALYSIS CONTINUES TO DEPICT 1000-1500 J/KG
MLCAPE ALONG WITH 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THE RESULT WILL BE
AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS THRU 12-2 AM. SEVERE THREAT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A NEW WATCH.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

POPS TAPER OFF AFTER 1-2 AM WITH PARTIAL CLEARING LATE
(ESPECIALLY W). MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING ERN VA. LOW TONIGHT
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE REGION WEDS
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXITS THE NE COAST. OVERALL...THERE IS LITTLE
FORCING IN DEEP LAYER WLY FLOW. SFC TROUGH ALSO LOCATES ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. WILL RETAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOW END CHANCE POPS CLOSER TO THE
COAST WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC TROUGH.
HIGHS FORECAST IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDS NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S.

THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN NC AS ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER UPPER WAVE LOCATES OVER THE
MID MS VALLEY. 20-30 POPS THURS MORNING INCREASE TO 40-50 POPS
THURS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND CONTINUING THRU THE OVERNIGHT.
PWATS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 2+ INCHES THURS NIGHT IN DEEP LAYER
SWLY FLOW. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE IN CONCERT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY
LIFTING ALONG THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL THURS NIGHT. DUE TO THE RECENT RAINFALL (UP TO 600
PCT OF NORMAL THIS PAST WEEK)...MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AND HAS
BEEN HEADLINED IN THE HWO. 72 HR RAINFALL TOTALS (INCLUDING TODAY)
RANGE FROM OVER AN INCH FROM THE PIEDMONT INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH NEAR THE COAST. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS THURS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S. LOWS THURS NIGHT
IN THE MID- UPPER 60S NORTH TO LOW 70S SOUTH.

BOUNDARY AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION FRI AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID MS VALLEY LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL
MAINTAIN SOLID CHANCE POPS FRI AS SEVERAL WAVES CONTINUE TO SPREAD
OVER THE REGION. HIGHS FRI IN THE LOW-MID 80S (UPPER 70S FAR NW)
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY-CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPSTREAM BLOCKING PATTERN RESULTS IN LITTLE MOVEMENT OF OVERALL
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THRU THE HOLIDAY WKEND / MED RANGE PERIOD.

MODELS STALL WAVY FRONTAL BNDRY ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC REGION SAT.
GFS WANTS TO PUSH THIS BNDRY INTO NORTH CAROLINA SUN AS WEAK HIGH
PRS BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WHILE ECMWF KEEPS THE
BNDRY NEARLY STNRY ACROSS THE RGN. THE BNDRY PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRNT MONDAY WITH A TROF LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
THUS LOOK FOR CHC POPS EACH DAY AS TIMING OF ANY ONE DISTURBANCE
RATHER PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT.

HIGHS SAT / SUN IN THE M-U80S...85-90 MON / TUE. LOWS U60S-M70S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. S/SW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AS THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN NW OF THE AREA. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR SCT TSTMS THIS EVENING. TSTMS ARE PSBL AGAIN WED AFTN
AND EVENING THOUGH NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY.

OUTLOOK...A FRONTAL SYSTM WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE CONVECTION. THERE
WILL BE CHANCES FOR AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS EACH DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES ON THU AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL KEEP CRNT SCA HEADLINES UP FOR THE CHES BAY TONIGHT AS PRS
GRDNT TIGHTENS ENOUGH FOR MARGINAL (15-20 KT) WNDS. GRDNT RELAXES
WED MORNING KEEPING A WEAKER SLY/SWLY FLOW (10-15 KT) THRU WED NIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT. THE FRNT DROPS INTO THE AREA FM
THE NW ON THU...WITH WINDS BCMG LIGHT AND VRBL AS THE FRNT STALLS
THE LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THU NIGHT AND FRI. WAVES AVGG
1-2 FT AND SEAS AVGG 2-4 FT THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/SAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MPR




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010220
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1020 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE
FRONT LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 378 HAS EXPIRED. HOWEVER...LATEST
REGIONAL RADAR DEPICTS SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND NE NC...WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE PIEDMONT. THIS IN
RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND SFC TROUGH DROPPING OVER THE
PIEDMONT. SPC MESOANALYSIS CONTINUES TO DEPICT 1000-1500 J/KG
MLCAPE ALONG WITH 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THE RESULT WILL BE
AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS THRU 12-2 AM. SEVERE THREAT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A NEW WATCH.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

POPS TAPER OFF AFTER 1-2 AM WITH PARTIAL CLEARING LATE
(ESPECIALLY W). MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING ERN VA. LOW TONIGHT
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE REGION WEDS
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXITS THE NE COAST. OVERALL...THERE IS LITTLE
FORCING IN DEEP LAYER WLY FLOW. SFC TROUGH ALSO LOCATES ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. WILL RETAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOW END CHANCE POPS CLOSER TO THE
COAST WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC TROUGH.
HIGHS FORECAST IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDS NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S.

THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN NC AS ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER UPPER WAVE LOCATES OVER THE
MID MS VALLEY. 20-30 POPS THURS MORNING INCREASE TO 40-50 POPS
THURS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND CONTINUING THRU THE OVERNIGHT.
PWATS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 2+ INCHES THURS NIGHT IN DEEP LAYER
SWLY FLOW. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE IN CONCERT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY
LIFTING ALONG THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL THURS NIGHT. DUE TO THE RECENT RAINFALL (UP TO 600
PCT OF NORMAL THIS PAST WEEK)...MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AND HAS
BEEN HEADLINED IN THE HWO. 72 HR RAINFALL TOTALS (INCLUDING TODAY)
RANGE FROM OVER AN INCH FROM THE PIEDMONT INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH NEAR THE COAST. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS THURS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S. LOWS THURS NIGHT
IN THE MID- UPPER 60S NORTH TO LOW 70S SOUTH.

BOUNDARY AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION FRI AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID MS VALLEY LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL
MAINTAIN SOLID CHANCE POPS FRI AS SEVERAL WAVES CONTINUE TO SPREAD
OVER THE REGION. HIGHS FRI IN THE LOW-MID 80S (UPPER 70S FAR NW)
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY-CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPSTREAM BLOCKING PATTERN RESULTS IN LITTLE MOVEMENT OF OVERALL
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THRU THE HOLIDAY WKEND / MED RANGE PERIOD.

MODELS STALL WAVY FRONTAL BNDRY ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC REGION SAT.
GFS WANTS TO PUSH THIS BNDRY INTO NORTH CAROLINA SUN AS WEAK HIGH
PRS BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WHILE ECMWF KEEPS THE
BNDRY NEARLY STNRY ACROSS THE RGN. THE BNDRY PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRNT MONDAY WITH A TROF LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
THUS LOOK FOR CHC POPS EACH DAY AS TIMING OF ANY ONE DISTURBANCE
RATHER PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT.

HIGHS SAT / SUN IN THE M-U80S...85-90 MON / TUE. LOWS U60S-M70S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. S/SW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AS THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN NW OF THE AREA. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR SCT TSTMS THIS EVENING. TSTMS ARE PSBL AGAIN WED AFTN
AND EVENING THOUGH NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY.

OUTLOOK...A FRONTAL SYSTM WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE CONVECTION. THERE
WILL BE CHANCES FOR AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS EACH DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES ON THU AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL KEEP CRNT SCA HEADLINES UP FOR THE CHES BAY TONIGHT AS PRS
GRDNT TIGHTENS ENOUGH FOR MARGINAL (15-20 KT) WNDS. GRDNT RELAXES
WED MORNING KEEPING A WEAKER SLY/SWLY FLOW (10-15 KT) THRU WED NIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT. THE FRNT DROPS INTO THE AREA FM
THE NW ON THU...WITH WINDS BCMG LIGHT AND VRBL AS THE FRNT STALLS
THE LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THU NIGHT AND FRI. WAVES AVGG
1-2 FT AND SEAS AVGG 2-4 FT THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/SAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MPR



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010218
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1018 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END EARLY TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT
PASSES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS EXITING THE RIDGES BY 01Z. ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS OHIO WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...SO HAVE LEFT
DIMINISHING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HAVE AGAIN
ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS AND DEW POINTS TOWARD LATEST TRENDS...WHICH
LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEW MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE AREA SAVE FOR THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND THE RIDGES MAY REMAIN DRY...AS SUBSIDENCE
AND WARMING TAKES PLACE ALOFT AND MIXING DRIES OUT THE SURFACE.
THIS MAY TAKE MOST OF THE DAY THOUGH...SO SOME SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY
MAY BE IN PLACE PER THE LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS.

IN ADDITION...THE 12Z GUIDANCE WANTS TO SHUNT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE AND A SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. HAVE PUSHED
CHANCE POPS SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THESE
TRENDS. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN WV THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDING
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY FROM KENTUCKY TO WEST VIRGINIA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STAY JUST BELOW OR NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE NOT NEEDED TO MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT COMPARED TO
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A
BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME DRY DAYS. HARD TO PINPOINT ANY
PARTICULAR POINT WHEN RAIN IS LIKELY...BUT SO FAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT SHIFT MUCH DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND
LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR IS EXPECTED FOR MOST PORTS THIS EVENING...THOUGH MVFR IN
SHOWERS MAY BRUSH OH PORTS BEFORE MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING NEAR THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO BRING INCREASING MVFR/ISOLATED IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS CEILINGS LIFT AND EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT
UNDER BUILDING RIDGING.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
SOUTH OF PIT WITH A CROSSING DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010218
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1018 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END EARLY TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT
PASSES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS EXITING THE RIDGES BY 01Z. ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS OHIO WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...SO HAVE LEFT
DIMINISHING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HAVE AGAIN
ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS AND DEW POINTS TOWARD LATEST TRENDS...WHICH
LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEW MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE AREA SAVE FOR THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND THE RIDGES MAY REMAIN DRY...AS SUBSIDENCE
AND WARMING TAKES PLACE ALOFT AND MIXING DRIES OUT THE SURFACE.
THIS MAY TAKE MOST OF THE DAY THOUGH...SO SOME SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY
MAY BE IN PLACE PER THE LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS.

IN ADDITION...THE 12Z GUIDANCE WANTS TO SHUNT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE AND A SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. HAVE PUSHED
CHANCE POPS SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THESE
TRENDS. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN WV THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDING
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY FROM KENTUCKY TO WEST VIRGINIA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STAY JUST BELOW OR NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE NOT NEEDED TO MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT COMPARED TO
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A
BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME DRY DAYS. HARD TO PINPOINT ANY
PARTICULAR POINT WHEN RAIN IS LIKELY...BUT SO FAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT SHIFT MUCH DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND
LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR IS EXPECTED FOR MOST PORTS THIS EVENING...THOUGH MVFR IN
SHOWERS MAY BRUSH OH PORTS BEFORE MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING NEAR THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO BRING INCREASING MVFR/ISOLATED IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS CEILINGS LIFT AND EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT
UNDER BUILDING RIDGING.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
SOUTH OF PIT WITH A CROSSING DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010218
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1018 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END EARLY TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT
PASSES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS EXITING THE RIDGES BY 01Z. ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS OHIO WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...SO HAVE LEFT
DIMINISHING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HAVE AGAIN
ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS AND DEW POINTS TOWARD LATEST TRENDS...WHICH
LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEW MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE AREA SAVE FOR THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND THE RIDGES MAY REMAIN DRY...AS SUBSIDENCE
AND WARMING TAKES PLACE ALOFT AND MIXING DRIES OUT THE SURFACE.
THIS MAY TAKE MOST OF THE DAY THOUGH...SO SOME SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY
MAY BE IN PLACE PER THE LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS.

IN ADDITION...THE 12Z GUIDANCE WANTS TO SHUNT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE AND A SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. HAVE PUSHED
CHANCE POPS SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THESE
TRENDS. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN WV THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDING
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY FROM KENTUCKY TO WEST VIRGINIA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STAY JUST BELOW OR NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE NOT NEEDED TO MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT COMPARED TO
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A
BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME DRY DAYS. HARD TO PINPOINT ANY
PARTICULAR POINT WHEN RAIN IS LIKELY...BUT SO FAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT SHIFT MUCH DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND
LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR IS EXPECTED FOR MOST PORTS THIS EVENING...THOUGH MVFR IN
SHOWERS MAY BRUSH OH PORTS BEFORE MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING NEAR THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO BRING INCREASING MVFR/ISOLATED IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS CEILINGS LIFT AND EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT
UNDER BUILDING RIDGING.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
SOUTH OF PIT WITH A CROSSING DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010218
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1018 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END EARLY TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT
PASSES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS EXITING THE RIDGES BY 01Z. ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS OHIO WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...SO HAVE LEFT
DIMINISHING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HAVE AGAIN
ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS AND DEW POINTS TOWARD LATEST TRENDS...WHICH
LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEW MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE AREA SAVE FOR THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND THE RIDGES MAY REMAIN DRY...AS SUBSIDENCE
AND WARMING TAKES PLACE ALOFT AND MIXING DRIES OUT THE SURFACE.
THIS MAY TAKE MOST OF THE DAY THOUGH...SO SOME SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY
MAY BE IN PLACE PER THE LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS.

IN ADDITION...THE 12Z GUIDANCE WANTS TO SHUNT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE AND A SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. HAVE PUSHED
CHANCE POPS SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THESE
TRENDS. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN WV THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDING
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY FROM KENTUCKY TO WEST VIRGINIA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STAY JUST BELOW OR NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE NOT NEEDED TO MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT COMPARED TO
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A
BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME DRY DAYS. HARD TO PINPOINT ANY
PARTICULAR POINT WHEN RAIN IS LIKELY...BUT SO FAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT SHIFT MUCH DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND
LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR IS EXPECTED FOR MOST PORTS THIS EVENING...THOUGH MVFR IN
SHOWERS MAY BRUSH OH PORTS BEFORE MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING NEAR THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO BRING INCREASING MVFR/ISOLATED IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS CEILINGS LIFT AND EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT
UNDER BUILDING RIDGING.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
SOUTH OF PIT WITH A CROSSING DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KLWX 010151
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
951 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY
DRAG A COLD FRONT NEAR THE AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH THE FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH AND STALLING TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SVR TSTM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
UPPER LVL TROF REMAINS THE MAIN PLAYER IN CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT
FOR THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WED AS IT PIVOTS FROM THE GL REGION EAST
INTO THE NORTHEAST. 01Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE OVER WV TRIGGERING ON GOING CONVECTION...EXTENDING EAST
INTO WESTERN VA/EASTERN WV WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
STILL RESIDE. ISO STRONG TSTMS STILL PSBL WITH THE ENVIRONMENT
STILL TO BE WORKED OVER...MAINLY THRU 03Z...WITH SCT SHOWERS THEN
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE CWA THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS THE
TROF SWINGS THRU.

THE TROF WL EMERGE OVER THE ERN SHORE BY WED MRNG. A CDFNT WL BE
APPROACHING...ATTENDANT FM LOPRES THAT WL BE TRACKING ACRS QUEBEC
BY THAT TIME. HWVR...THE CDFNT LOOKS QUITE WEAK...AND AM
STRUGGLING TO FIND FORCING MECHANISMS. AMS WL STILL BE QUITE MOIST
BUT NOT THAT UNSTBL. MID LVL LAPSE RATES WL BE DECENT. WL HOLD
ONTO LOW END CHC POPS...HIER THAN MAV/MET...AND CONT TIL SUNSET.

WL STILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR TMRW...SO TEMPS WL BE SLGTLY MUGGY
WITH HIGHS MID-UPR 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THURSDAY MORNING WHILE A COLD FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
HIGHLANDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FCST MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF
SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT. HEAVY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS ENHANCED LIFT
OCCURS IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A UPPER LEVEL JET. DUE TO THE TIME
OF DAY AND LACK OF INSTABILITY ALOFT...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN STORY THROUGH THE EXTENDED IS CONT CHCS FOR UNSETTLED WX...AS
STUBBORN FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR/OVER OUR AREA. THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO
FRONTAL LOCATION THROUGH THE EXTENDED. AS SUCH...IT IS DIFFICULT
DETERMINE THE SPATIOTEMPORAL EXTENT OF ANY ACTIVITY AND DETERMINE
CONVECTIVE VS SHOWER CHCS.

MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WHAT WILL THE WX BE LIKE ON SAT...FOR NOW
HAVE KEPT CHC POPS AND THUNDER...THOUGH THERE IS CERTAINLY BUST
POTENTIAL WITH THIS...AS FRONT COULD BE FAR ENOUGH TO OUR
SOUTH...WHICH WOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY (ELEVATED).

AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...TEMPS PROGGED TO REMAIN AOB CLIMO NORMS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD. DEWPOINTS ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 70F...SO NOT EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO BE VERY OPPRESSIVE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD. ISO TSTMS PSBL
TONIGHT...WITH COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE CIGS AND VIS TO SUB-VFR AND
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS TO 30 KTS. OTHERWISE...WINDS SLY LESS THAN 10
KTS...BCMG LIGHT/VRB AFTR 06Z.

TSRA CVRG LOOKING MUCH LWR ON WED...AS TROF WL BE EAST OF
TERMINALS. A WEAK CDFNT WL BE DROPPING SWD IN THE AFTN-EVNG. ITS
ENTIRELY PSBL THAT THERE WL BE NO TSRA AT ALL. TAFS VFR W/ CIGS
BKN-OVC050-060.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE
REGION

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH EXTENDED IS POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH SUB-VFR CONDS POSSIBLE NEAR TSTMS. VFR
CONDS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL
POTOMAC THRU THE NIGHT WITH SLY WINDS GUSTING TO 18 KTS. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED AFTR DAYBREAK ON WED...CONTINUING THRU
WED NIGHT. CHC OF TSTMS ON WED AFTN COULD BRING BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS AND REDUCED VSBYS.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND MAY CAUSE
REDUCED VSBYS.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...THOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS FRONT WILL BE NEAR AREA
EACH DAY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EACH DAY...WHICH
COULD IMPACT MARINE CONCERNS

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LVLS RUNNING ABT A FOOT ABV ASTRO NORMS. THE LOWER OF THE
TWO HIGH TIDES ROLLING IN NOW...WHICH WL KEEP LEVELS BELOW ADVY
CRITERIA. HWVR...ISSUES WUD RESULT FROM THE NEXT TIDE...MIDNGT TO
NOON. TOO SOON TO ISSUE ADVY ATTM...BUT ONE MAY BE REQD BEFORE
EVNG OVER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ531>533-
     537-539>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ534-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...SEARS/HTS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...HAS/MSE/SEARS
MARINE...HAS/MSE/SEARS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KLWX 010151
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
951 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY
DRAG A COLD FRONT NEAR THE AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH THE FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH AND STALLING TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SVR TSTM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
UPPER LVL TROF REMAINS THE MAIN PLAYER IN CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT
FOR THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WED AS IT PIVOTS FROM THE GL REGION EAST
INTO THE NORTHEAST. 01Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE OVER WV TRIGGERING ON GOING CONVECTION...EXTENDING EAST
INTO WESTERN VA/EASTERN WV WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
STILL RESIDE. ISO STRONG TSTMS STILL PSBL WITH THE ENVIRONMENT
STILL TO BE WORKED OVER...MAINLY THRU 03Z...WITH SCT SHOWERS THEN
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE CWA THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS THE
TROF SWINGS THRU.

THE TROF WL EMERGE OVER THE ERN SHORE BY WED MRNG. A CDFNT WL BE
APPROACHING...ATTENDANT FM LOPRES THAT WL BE TRACKING ACRS QUEBEC
BY THAT TIME. HWVR...THE CDFNT LOOKS QUITE WEAK...AND AM
STRUGGLING TO FIND FORCING MECHANISMS. AMS WL STILL BE QUITE MOIST
BUT NOT THAT UNSTBL. MID LVL LAPSE RATES WL BE DECENT. WL HOLD
ONTO LOW END CHC POPS...HIER THAN MAV/MET...AND CONT TIL SUNSET.

WL STILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR TMRW...SO TEMPS WL BE SLGTLY MUGGY
WITH HIGHS MID-UPR 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THURSDAY MORNING WHILE A COLD FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
HIGHLANDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FCST MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF
SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT. HEAVY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS ENHANCED LIFT
OCCURS IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A UPPER LEVEL JET. DUE TO THE TIME
OF DAY AND LACK OF INSTABILITY ALOFT...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN STORY THROUGH THE EXTENDED IS CONT CHCS FOR UNSETTLED WX...AS
STUBBORN FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR/OVER OUR AREA. THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO
FRONTAL LOCATION THROUGH THE EXTENDED. AS SUCH...IT IS DIFFICULT
DETERMINE THE SPATIOTEMPORAL EXTENT OF ANY ACTIVITY AND DETERMINE
CONVECTIVE VS SHOWER CHCS.

MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WHAT WILL THE WX BE LIKE ON SAT...FOR NOW
HAVE KEPT CHC POPS AND THUNDER...THOUGH THERE IS CERTAINLY BUST
POTENTIAL WITH THIS...AS FRONT COULD BE FAR ENOUGH TO OUR
SOUTH...WHICH WOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY (ELEVATED).

AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...TEMPS PROGGED TO REMAIN AOB CLIMO NORMS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD. DEWPOINTS ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 70F...SO NOT EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO BE VERY OPPRESSIVE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD. ISO TSTMS PSBL
TONIGHT...WITH COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE CIGS AND VIS TO SUB-VFR AND
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS TO 30 KTS. OTHERWISE...WINDS SLY LESS THAN 10
KTS...BCMG LIGHT/VRB AFTR 06Z.

TSRA CVRG LOOKING MUCH LWR ON WED...AS TROF WL BE EAST OF
TERMINALS. A WEAK CDFNT WL BE DROPPING SWD IN THE AFTN-EVNG. ITS
ENTIRELY PSBL THAT THERE WL BE NO TSRA AT ALL. TAFS VFR W/ CIGS
BKN-OVC050-060.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE
REGION

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH EXTENDED IS POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH SUB-VFR CONDS POSSIBLE NEAR TSTMS. VFR
CONDS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL
POTOMAC THRU THE NIGHT WITH SLY WINDS GUSTING TO 18 KTS. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED AFTR DAYBREAK ON WED...CONTINUING THRU
WED NIGHT. CHC OF TSTMS ON WED AFTN COULD BRING BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS AND REDUCED VSBYS.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND MAY CAUSE
REDUCED VSBYS.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...THOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS FRONT WILL BE NEAR AREA
EACH DAY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EACH DAY...WHICH
COULD IMPACT MARINE CONCERNS

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LVLS RUNNING ABT A FOOT ABV ASTRO NORMS. THE LOWER OF THE
TWO HIGH TIDES ROLLING IN NOW...WHICH WL KEEP LEVELS BELOW ADVY
CRITERIA. HWVR...ISSUES WUD RESULT FROM THE NEXT TIDE...MIDNGT TO
NOON. TOO SOON TO ISSUE ADVY ATTM...BUT ONE MAY BE REQD BEFORE
EVNG OVER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ531>533-
     537-539>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ534-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...SEARS/HTS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...HAS/MSE/SEARS
MARINE...HAS/MSE/SEARS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KLWX 010151
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
951 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY
DRAG A COLD FRONT NEAR THE AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH THE FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH AND STALLING TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SVR TSTM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
UPPER LVL TROF REMAINS THE MAIN PLAYER IN CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT
FOR THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WED AS IT PIVOTS FROM THE GL REGION EAST
INTO THE NORTHEAST. 01Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE OVER WV TRIGGERING ON GOING CONVECTION...EXTENDING EAST
INTO WESTERN VA/EASTERN WV WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
STILL RESIDE. ISO STRONG TSTMS STILL PSBL WITH THE ENVIRONMENT
STILL TO BE WORKED OVER...MAINLY THRU 03Z...WITH SCT SHOWERS THEN
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE CWA THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS THE
TROF SWINGS THRU.

THE TROF WL EMERGE OVER THE ERN SHORE BY WED MRNG. A CDFNT WL BE
APPROACHING...ATTENDANT FM LOPRES THAT WL BE TRACKING ACRS QUEBEC
BY THAT TIME. HWVR...THE CDFNT LOOKS QUITE WEAK...AND AM
STRUGGLING TO FIND FORCING MECHANISMS. AMS WL STILL BE QUITE MOIST
BUT NOT THAT UNSTBL. MID LVL LAPSE RATES WL BE DECENT. WL HOLD
ONTO LOW END CHC POPS...HIER THAN MAV/MET...AND CONT TIL SUNSET.

WL STILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR TMRW...SO TEMPS WL BE SLGTLY MUGGY
WITH HIGHS MID-UPR 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THURSDAY MORNING WHILE A COLD FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
HIGHLANDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FCST MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF
SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT. HEAVY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS ENHANCED LIFT
OCCURS IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A UPPER LEVEL JET. DUE TO THE TIME
OF DAY AND LACK OF INSTABILITY ALOFT...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN STORY THROUGH THE EXTENDED IS CONT CHCS FOR UNSETTLED WX...AS
STUBBORN FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR/OVER OUR AREA. THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO
FRONTAL LOCATION THROUGH THE EXTENDED. AS SUCH...IT IS DIFFICULT
DETERMINE THE SPATIOTEMPORAL EXTENT OF ANY ACTIVITY AND DETERMINE
CONVECTIVE VS SHOWER CHCS.

MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WHAT WILL THE WX BE LIKE ON SAT...FOR NOW
HAVE KEPT CHC POPS AND THUNDER...THOUGH THERE IS CERTAINLY BUST
POTENTIAL WITH THIS...AS FRONT COULD BE FAR ENOUGH TO OUR
SOUTH...WHICH WOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY (ELEVATED).

AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...TEMPS PROGGED TO REMAIN AOB CLIMO NORMS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD. DEWPOINTS ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 70F...SO NOT EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO BE VERY OPPRESSIVE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD. ISO TSTMS PSBL
TONIGHT...WITH COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE CIGS AND VIS TO SUB-VFR AND
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS TO 30 KTS. OTHERWISE...WINDS SLY LESS THAN 10
KTS...BCMG LIGHT/VRB AFTR 06Z.

TSRA CVRG LOOKING MUCH LWR ON WED...AS TROF WL BE EAST OF
TERMINALS. A WEAK CDFNT WL BE DROPPING SWD IN THE AFTN-EVNG. ITS
ENTIRELY PSBL THAT THERE WL BE NO TSRA AT ALL. TAFS VFR W/ CIGS
BKN-OVC050-060.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE
REGION

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH EXTENDED IS POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH SUB-VFR CONDS POSSIBLE NEAR TSTMS. VFR
CONDS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL
POTOMAC THRU THE NIGHT WITH SLY WINDS GUSTING TO 18 KTS. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED AFTR DAYBREAK ON WED...CONTINUING THRU
WED NIGHT. CHC OF TSTMS ON WED AFTN COULD BRING BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS AND REDUCED VSBYS.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND MAY CAUSE
REDUCED VSBYS.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...THOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS FRONT WILL BE NEAR AREA
EACH DAY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EACH DAY...WHICH
COULD IMPACT MARINE CONCERNS

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LVLS RUNNING ABT A FOOT ABV ASTRO NORMS. THE LOWER OF THE
TWO HIGH TIDES ROLLING IN NOW...WHICH WL KEEP LEVELS BELOW ADVY
CRITERIA. HWVR...ISSUES WUD RESULT FROM THE NEXT TIDE...MIDNGT TO
NOON. TOO SOON TO ISSUE ADVY ATTM...BUT ONE MAY BE REQD BEFORE
EVNG OVER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ531>533-
     537-539>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ534-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...SEARS/HTS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...HAS/MSE/SEARS
MARINE...HAS/MSE/SEARS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KLWX 010151
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
951 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY
DRAG A COLD FRONT NEAR THE AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH THE FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH AND STALLING TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SVR TSTM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
UPPER LVL TROF REMAINS THE MAIN PLAYER IN CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT
FOR THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WED AS IT PIVOTS FROM THE GL REGION EAST
INTO THE NORTHEAST. 01Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE OVER WV TRIGGERING ON GOING CONVECTION...EXTENDING EAST
INTO WESTERN VA/EASTERN WV WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
STILL RESIDE. ISO STRONG TSTMS STILL PSBL WITH THE ENVIRONMENT
STILL TO BE WORKED OVER...MAINLY THRU 03Z...WITH SCT SHOWERS THEN
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE CWA THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS THE
TROF SWINGS THRU.

THE TROF WL EMERGE OVER THE ERN SHORE BY WED MRNG. A CDFNT WL BE
APPROACHING...ATTENDANT FM LOPRES THAT WL BE TRACKING ACRS QUEBEC
BY THAT TIME. HWVR...THE CDFNT LOOKS QUITE WEAK...AND AM
STRUGGLING TO FIND FORCING MECHANISMS. AMS WL STILL BE QUITE MOIST
BUT NOT THAT UNSTBL. MID LVL LAPSE RATES WL BE DECENT. WL HOLD
ONTO LOW END CHC POPS...HIER THAN MAV/MET...AND CONT TIL SUNSET.

WL STILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR TMRW...SO TEMPS WL BE SLGTLY MUGGY
WITH HIGHS MID-UPR 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THURSDAY MORNING WHILE A COLD FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
HIGHLANDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FCST MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF
SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT. HEAVY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS ENHANCED LIFT
OCCURS IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A UPPER LEVEL JET. DUE TO THE TIME
OF DAY AND LACK OF INSTABILITY ALOFT...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN STORY THROUGH THE EXTENDED IS CONT CHCS FOR UNSETTLED WX...AS
STUBBORN FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR/OVER OUR AREA. THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO
FRONTAL LOCATION THROUGH THE EXTENDED. AS SUCH...IT IS DIFFICULT
DETERMINE THE SPATIOTEMPORAL EXTENT OF ANY ACTIVITY AND DETERMINE
CONVECTIVE VS SHOWER CHCS.

MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WHAT WILL THE WX BE LIKE ON SAT...FOR NOW
HAVE KEPT CHC POPS AND THUNDER...THOUGH THERE IS CERTAINLY BUST
POTENTIAL WITH THIS...AS FRONT COULD BE FAR ENOUGH TO OUR
SOUTH...WHICH WOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY (ELEVATED).

AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...TEMPS PROGGED TO REMAIN AOB CLIMO NORMS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD. DEWPOINTS ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 70F...SO NOT EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO BE VERY OPPRESSIVE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD. ISO TSTMS PSBL
TONIGHT...WITH COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE CIGS AND VIS TO SUB-VFR AND
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS TO 30 KTS. OTHERWISE...WINDS SLY LESS THAN 10
KTS...BCMG LIGHT/VRB AFTR 06Z.

TSRA CVRG LOOKING MUCH LWR ON WED...AS TROF WL BE EAST OF
TERMINALS. A WEAK CDFNT WL BE DROPPING SWD IN THE AFTN-EVNG. ITS
ENTIRELY PSBL THAT THERE WL BE NO TSRA AT ALL. TAFS VFR W/ CIGS
BKN-OVC050-060.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE
REGION

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH EXTENDED IS POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH SUB-VFR CONDS POSSIBLE NEAR TSTMS. VFR
CONDS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL
POTOMAC THRU THE NIGHT WITH SLY WINDS GUSTING TO 18 KTS. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED AFTR DAYBREAK ON WED...CONTINUING THRU
WED NIGHT. CHC OF TSTMS ON WED AFTN COULD BRING BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS AND REDUCED VSBYS.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND MAY CAUSE
REDUCED VSBYS.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...THOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS FRONT WILL BE NEAR AREA
EACH DAY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EACH DAY...WHICH
COULD IMPACT MARINE CONCERNS

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LVLS RUNNING ABT A FOOT ABV ASTRO NORMS. THE LOWER OF THE
TWO HIGH TIDES ROLLING IN NOW...WHICH WL KEEP LEVELS BELOW ADVY
CRITERIA. HWVR...ISSUES WUD RESULT FROM THE NEXT TIDE...MIDNGT TO
NOON. TOO SOON TO ISSUE ADVY ATTM...BUT ONE MAY BE REQD BEFORE
EVNG OVER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ531>533-
     537-539>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ534-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...SEARS/HTS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...HAS/MSE/SEARS
MARINE...HAS/MSE/SEARS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KLWX 010151
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
951 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY
DRAG A COLD FRONT NEAR THE AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH THE FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH AND STALLING TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SVR TSTM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
UPPER LVL TROF REMAINS THE MAIN PLAYER IN CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT
FOR THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WED AS IT PIVOTS FROM THE GL REGION EAST
INTO THE NORTHEAST. 01Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE OVER WV TRIGGERING ON GOING CONVECTION...EXTENDING EAST
INTO WESTERN VA/EASTERN WV WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
STILL RESIDE. ISO STRONG TSTMS STILL PSBL WITH THE ENVIRONMENT
STILL TO BE WORKED OVER...MAINLY THRU 03Z...WITH SCT SHOWERS THEN
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE CWA THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS THE
TROF SWINGS THRU.

THE TROF WL EMERGE OVER THE ERN SHORE BY WED MRNG. A CDFNT WL BE
APPROACHING...ATTENDANT FM LOPRES THAT WL BE TRACKING ACRS QUEBEC
BY THAT TIME. HWVR...THE CDFNT LOOKS QUITE WEAK...AND AM
STRUGGLING TO FIND FORCING MECHANISMS. AMS WL STILL BE QUITE MOIST
BUT NOT THAT UNSTBL. MID LVL LAPSE RATES WL BE DECENT. WL HOLD
ONTO LOW END CHC POPS...HIER THAN MAV/MET...AND CONT TIL SUNSET.

WL STILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR TMRW...SO TEMPS WL BE SLGTLY MUGGY
WITH HIGHS MID-UPR 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THURSDAY MORNING WHILE A COLD FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
HIGHLANDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FCST MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF
SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT. HEAVY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS ENHANCED LIFT
OCCURS IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A UPPER LEVEL JET. DUE TO THE TIME
OF DAY AND LACK OF INSTABILITY ALOFT...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN STORY THROUGH THE EXTENDED IS CONT CHCS FOR UNSETTLED WX...AS
STUBBORN FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR/OVER OUR AREA. THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO
FRONTAL LOCATION THROUGH THE EXTENDED. AS SUCH...IT IS DIFFICULT
DETERMINE THE SPATIOTEMPORAL EXTENT OF ANY ACTIVITY AND DETERMINE
CONVECTIVE VS SHOWER CHCS.

MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WHAT WILL THE WX BE LIKE ON SAT...FOR NOW
HAVE KEPT CHC POPS AND THUNDER...THOUGH THERE IS CERTAINLY BUST
POTENTIAL WITH THIS...AS FRONT COULD BE FAR ENOUGH TO OUR
SOUTH...WHICH WOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY (ELEVATED).

AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...TEMPS PROGGED TO REMAIN AOB CLIMO NORMS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD. DEWPOINTS ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 70F...SO NOT EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO BE VERY OPPRESSIVE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD. ISO TSTMS PSBL
TONIGHT...WITH COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE CIGS AND VIS TO SUB-VFR AND
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS TO 30 KTS. OTHERWISE...WINDS SLY LESS THAN 10
KTS...BCMG LIGHT/VRB AFTR 06Z.

TSRA CVRG LOOKING MUCH LWR ON WED...AS TROF WL BE EAST OF
TERMINALS. A WEAK CDFNT WL BE DROPPING SWD IN THE AFTN-EVNG. ITS
ENTIRELY PSBL THAT THERE WL BE NO TSRA AT ALL. TAFS VFR W/ CIGS
BKN-OVC050-060.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE
REGION

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH EXTENDED IS POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH SUB-VFR CONDS POSSIBLE NEAR TSTMS. VFR
CONDS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL
POTOMAC THRU THE NIGHT WITH SLY WINDS GUSTING TO 18 KTS. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED AFTR DAYBREAK ON WED...CONTINUING THRU
WED NIGHT. CHC OF TSTMS ON WED AFTN COULD BRING BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS AND REDUCED VSBYS.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND MAY CAUSE
REDUCED VSBYS.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...THOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS FRONT WILL BE NEAR AREA
EACH DAY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EACH DAY...WHICH
COULD IMPACT MARINE CONCERNS

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LVLS RUNNING ABT A FOOT ABV ASTRO NORMS. THE LOWER OF THE
TWO HIGH TIDES ROLLING IN NOW...WHICH WL KEEP LEVELS BELOW ADVY
CRITERIA. HWVR...ISSUES WUD RESULT FROM THE NEXT TIDE...MIDNGT TO
NOON. TOO SOON TO ISSUE ADVY ATTM...BUT ONE MAY BE REQD BEFORE
EVNG OVER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ531>533-
     537-539>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ534-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...SEARS/HTS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...HAS/MSE/SEARS
MARINE...HAS/MSE/SEARS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 010150
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
950 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH MID WEEK. AS IT
DOES SO, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO OUR REGION TOMORROW, FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY. THAT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL
JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
PWAT INCREASING TO 1.75 INCHES DELMARVA AND SE NJ TONIGHT. THATS
HUMID AND ANY TSTMS CAN DUMP .50 INCHES IN 15 MINUTES FOR BRIEF
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

STORMS MAY REORGANIZE INTO SUBSTANTIAL CLUSTERS AROUND ALONG THE
WARM FRONT LATER THIS EVENING WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE THE FOCUS.
THIS PERMITS POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS FROM I95 SEWD IN THE
02Z-08Z TIME FRAME.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT THRU 3 AM WED FOR PORTIONS
OF ERN PA AND NORTHWESTERN NJ...WHERE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
REFORM AND TRAIN.

PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUALLY IMPROVING WEATHER...AS BOTH POPS AND SKY COVER DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MAX TEMPS AOA AVG.

ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS IN NJ AND DE SHOULD END BY
EARLY AFTN. PWAT DECREASES STEADILY DURING THE DAY.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM IN ORDER TO FOCUS ON ONGOING SEVERE
THREAT.

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THERE WAS ABOUT A 50/50 SPLIT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND WRF- NMMB INITIALIZATION AT 500MB. FARTHER
DOWNWARD, THE WRF- NMMB LOOKED BETTER. DP/DTING THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE LOOKS STRONGER, WHILE THE ERN NOAM TROF IS BROADER. WHILE
THE MODELS AGREE ON A CONTINUATION OF THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN, THEY VARY ON DETAILS AND CONTINUE TO FIND THEMSELVES IN
ODD POSITIONS WITH THE NORMALLY SLOWER ECMWF AND WRF-NMMB
CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. AS PER
PMDHMD WE ARE LEANING AWAY FROM THESE FASTER RESULTS AND GOING
MORE TOWARD CONTINUITY. REGARDLESS WITH THE CURRENT PATTERN
REMAINING IN PLACE IT IS TOUGH TO CONFIDENTLY PREDICT MUCH
PROLONGED DRY WEATHER.

THE START OF THE LONG TERM DOES HAVE DECENT MODELING CONSENSUS.
WHILE THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA,
SHORT WAVES INTERACTING WITH THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD RE-GENERATE
MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS RATHER QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLD
POCKET ALOFT COUPLED WITH NEAR NEUTRAL LOWER LEVEL THERMAL
FIELDS KEEP PREDICTED TOTAL TOTALS AT OR AROUND 50C.
APPROPRIATELY MIXED LAYER CAPES (ABOVE 1000J IN DELMARVA) PEAK
DURING THE MORNING AND DECREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS
THE COLD POCKET GETS SHEARED. HIGHEST POPS ARE IN THE MORNING WITH
A TRAIL OFF AS THE DAY CONTINUES. STRONGER SHEAR AND CAPE ARE
DECOUPLED AND (CAPE) MAY NOT RAMP UP FAST ENOUGH GIVEN TIMING OF
FEATURES FOR SEVERE WHICH LOOKS BETTER NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA. AIR
MASS SUPPORTIVE OF MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MAX TEMPS MOST OF OUR CWA.

GIVEN THE BRIEF FLATTENING OF THE TROF ALOFT, WE DID NOT CARRY
MUCH OF A CHANCE OF THUNDER INTO THE NIGHT AND NO POPS ANYWHERE
OVERNIGHT. STAT GUIDANCE MINS LOOK REASONABLE.

ON THURSDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF
OUR CWA. FROM HERE THE TIMING OF IMPULSES ON THE FRONT START TO
DIVERGE. REGARDLESS, THE BOUNDARY IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO ACT AS A
TRIGGER WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE (THUS HIGHER POPS) IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF UR CWA. MIXED LAYER CAPES IN DELMARVA REACH THE LOWER
1000S, BUT ARE RELATIVELY LOW FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. THUNDER
CHANCES MAY BE OVERSTATED. THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST A 2-3F DROP OFF
IN MAX TEMPS FROM WED.

NOW THE MODELS REALLY START DIVERGING FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
WITH THE GFS AND CAN GGEM EMPHASIZING FRIDAY WITH THE ECMWF AND
WRF THURSDAY NIGHT. WHERE MODELS AGREE IS THAT INSTABILITY IN OUR
CWA IS MODEST AND THERE ARE HIGHER CHANCES SOUTH THAN NORTH.
TIMING RESOLUTION IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO FORECAST DRY WEATHER FOR
EITHER PERIOD. WE DID STEER HIGHER POPS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
GEFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE OP GFS.

IT DOES NOT BECOME MUCH CLEARER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH THE ECMWF
FORECASTING A DRY DAY AND THE CAN GGEM HAVING A TOTAL WASHOUT. MOST
MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING A SFC LOW ON THE LEVEL OF LAST SATURDAY,
SO FOR NOW WE KEPT THE FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY CLOSE TO
CONTINUITY AND SUMMER CLIMO AND NOT SOUND LIKE A TOTAL LOSS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY REMAIN CLOSE TO CONTINUITY. WITH BOTH THE GFS AND EC
DRY WE HAVE SUNDAY PREDICTED TO BE THE BETTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND
DAYS AND KEPT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR MONDAY AS THE
WARM FRONT IS PREDICTED TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...MAINLY VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT BUT WITH PATCHES OF
MVFR CIGS. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO 30-35 KT IN IFR TSTMS THROUGH
08Z. SE TO SSW FLOW NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. POSSIBLE DEVELOPING EXPANDING PATCHES IFR FOG/STRATUS
AFTER 08Z IF THE SHOWERS DISSIPATE. PLS SEE TAFS AND OBSERVATIONS
FOR DETAILS.

WEDNESDAY...VFR SCT AOA 5000 FT WITH CHANCE OF LEFTOVER SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTN HRS NJ/DE.
WINDS BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST AND MAY GUST TO 20 KT DURING THE
AFTERNOON.


OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR WITH ANY PCPN CHANCES DECREASING
QUICKLY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT SOME
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS DURING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
IMPACT OUTLOOKED TO BE GREATER FOR SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR DE BAY DISCONTINUED THIS EVENING. MAY NEED TO ADD SCA FOR
HAZ 5 FT SEAS FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ALONG
THE ATLC COAST, ESPECIALLY S NJ AND DE COASTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEAS ON THE OCEAN MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN PRE FRONTAL SOUTHERLY FLOW, BUT THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS MIGHT
REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN
AVERAGE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
BASED ON OUR LOCAL FORECAST APPLICATION USING A 4 FOOT SWELL/7
SECOND PERIOD AND SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 11 KNOTS, WE CONTINUE
WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR NEW JERSEY AND LOW RISK
FOR DELAWARE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KPHL TIP BUCKET NOT WORKING AND TRACE RAIN IS INCORRECT THIS
EVENING. POSSIBLY OVER AN INCH. WE`LL ESTIMATE TODAY.

THE CHART BELOW SHOWS RAINFALL STATISTICS AT OUR FOUR BIG CLIMATE
SITES THRU 6/29. THE COLUMNS ARE BROKEN DOWN BY SITE, "POR" (HOW
FAR RECORDS DATE BACK), JUNE 2015 RAINFALL, NORMAL JUNE RAINFALL,
JUNE 2015 RAINFALL RANKING, AS WELL AS THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.

SITE    POR     JUNE    NORMAL    RANK   WETTEST

ILG     1894    12.46    3.50      2ND     13.66 (2013)
ACY     1874     8.04    2.81      2ND      8.45 (1920)
ABE     1922     7.02    3.86      6TH     10.51 (1938)
PHL     1872     7.23    3.08     10TH     10.56 (2013)

AT THIS TIME, IT HAS BEEN THE SECOND WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD IN
BOTH WILMINGTON AND ATLANTIC CITY. WITH ONLY TODAY LEFT IN THE
MONTH, CURRENT FORECASTS DO NOT FAVOR EITHER SITE BREAKING THEIR
ALL-TIME JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. HOWEVER, IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A HEAVY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO CLOSE THE GAP, WHICH IS 0.41 INCHES IN
ATLANTIC CITY AND 1.2 INCHES IN WILMINGTON.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KPHL TIP BUCKET ERRONEOUS AND TICKET OUT ON IT. WILL BE FIXED
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-101-103-105.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ001-007>009.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI
NEAR TERM...DRAG 950
SHORT TERM...FRANCK
LONG TERM...GIGI/JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/GIGI 950
MARINE...DRAG/GIGI 950
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 010150
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
950 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH MID WEEK. AS IT
DOES SO, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO OUR REGION TOMORROW, FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY. THAT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL
JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
PWAT INCREASING TO 1.75 INCHES DELMARVA AND SE NJ TONIGHT. THATS
HUMID AND ANY TSTMS CAN DUMP .50 INCHES IN 15 MINUTES FOR BRIEF
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

STORMS MAY REORGANIZE INTO SUBSTANTIAL CLUSTERS AROUND ALONG THE
WARM FRONT LATER THIS EVENING WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE THE FOCUS.
THIS PERMITS POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS FROM I95 SEWD IN THE
02Z-08Z TIME FRAME.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT THRU 3 AM WED FOR PORTIONS
OF ERN PA AND NORTHWESTERN NJ...WHERE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
REFORM AND TRAIN.

PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUALLY IMPROVING WEATHER...AS BOTH POPS AND SKY COVER DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MAX TEMPS AOA AVG.

ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS IN NJ AND DE SHOULD END BY
EARLY AFTN. PWAT DECREASES STEADILY DURING THE DAY.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM IN ORDER TO FOCUS ON ONGOING SEVERE
THREAT.

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THERE WAS ABOUT A 50/50 SPLIT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND WRF- NMMB INITIALIZATION AT 500MB. FARTHER
DOWNWARD, THE WRF- NMMB LOOKED BETTER. DP/DTING THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE LOOKS STRONGER, WHILE THE ERN NOAM TROF IS BROADER. WHILE
THE MODELS AGREE ON A CONTINUATION OF THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN, THEY VARY ON DETAILS AND CONTINUE TO FIND THEMSELVES IN
ODD POSITIONS WITH THE NORMALLY SLOWER ECMWF AND WRF-NMMB
CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. AS PER
PMDHMD WE ARE LEANING AWAY FROM THESE FASTER RESULTS AND GOING
MORE TOWARD CONTINUITY. REGARDLESS WITH THE CURRENT PATTERN
REMAINING IN PLACE IT IS TOUGH TO CONFIDENTLY PREDICT MUCH
PROLONGED DRY WEATHER.

THE START OF THE LONG TERM DOES HAVE DECENT MODELING CONSENSUS.
WHILE THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA,
SHORT WAVES INTERACTING WITH THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD RE-GENERATE
MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS RATHER QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLD
POCKET ALOFT COUPLED WITH NEAR NEUTRAL LOWER LEVEL THERMAL
FIELDS KEEP PREDICTED TOTAL TOTALS AT OR AROUND 50C.
APPROPRIATELY MIXED LAYER CAPES (ABOVE 1000J IN DELMARVA) PEAK
DURING THE MORNING AND DECREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS
THE COLD POCKET GETS SHEARED. HIGHEST POPS ARE IN THE MORNING WITH
A TRAIL OFF AS THE DAY CONTINUES. STRONGER SHEAR AND CAPE ARE
DECOUPLED AND (CAPE) MAY NOT RAMP UP FAST ENOUGH GIVEN TIMING OF
FEATURES FOR SEVERE WHICH LOOKS BETTER NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA. AIR
MASS SUPPORTIVE OF MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MAX TEMPS MOST OF OUR CWA.

GIVEN THE BRIEF FLATTENING OF THE TROF ALOFT, WE DID NOT CARRY
MUCH OF A CHANCE OF THUNDER INTO THE NIGHT AND NO POPS ANYWHERE
OVERNIGHT. STAT GUIDANCE MINS LOOK REASONABLE.

ON THURSDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF
OUR CWA. FROM HERE THE TIMING OF IMPULSES ON THE FRONT START TO
DIVERGE. REGARDLESS, THE BOUNDARY IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO ACT AS A
TRIGGER WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE (THUS HIGHER POPS) IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF UR CWA. MIXED LAYER CAPES IN DELMARVA REACH THE LOWER
1000S, BUT ARE RELATIVELY LOW FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. THUNDER
CHANCES MAY BE OVERSTATED. THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST A 2-3F DROP OFF
IN MAX TEMPS FROM WED.

NOW THE MODELS REALLY START DIVERGING FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
WITH THE GFS AND CAN GGEM EMPHASIZING FRIDAY WITH THE ECMWF AND
WRF THURSDAY NIGHT. WHERE MODELS AGREE IS THAT INSTABILITY IN OUR
CWA IS MODEST AND THERE ARE HIGHER CHANCES SOUTH THAN NORTH.
TIMING RESOLUTION IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO FORECAST DRY WEATHER FOR
EITHER PERIOD. WE DID STEER HIGHER POPS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
GEFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE OP GFS.

IT DOES NOT BECOME MUCH CLEARER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH THE ECMWF
FORECASTING A DRY DAY AND THE CAN GGEM HAVING A TOTAL WASHOUT. MOST
MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING A SFC LOW ON THE LEVEL OF LAST SATURDAY,
SO FOR NOW WE KEPT THE FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY CLOSE TO
CONTINUITY AND SUMMER CLIMO AND NOT SOUND LIKE A TOTAL LOSS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY REMAIN CLOSE TO CONTINUITY. WITH BOTH THE GFS AND EC
DRY WE HAVE SUNDAY PREDICTED TO BE THE BETTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND
DAYS AND KEPT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR MONDAY AS THE
WARM FRONT IS PREDICTED TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...MAINLY VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT BUT WITH PATCHES OF
MVFR CIGS. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO 30-35 KT IN IFR TSTMS THROUGH
08Z. SE TO SSW FLOW NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. POSSIBLE DEVELOPING EXPANDING PATCHES IFR FOG/STRATUS
AFTER 08Z IF THE SHOWERS DISSIPATE. PLS SEE TAFS AND OBSERVATIONS
FOR DETAILS.

WEDNESDAY...VFR SCT AOA 5000 FT WITH CHANCE OF LEFTOVER SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTN HRS NJ/DE.
WINDS BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST AND MAY GUST TO 20 KT DURING THE
AFTERNOON.


OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR WITH ANY PCPN CHANCES DECREASING
QUICKLY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT SOME
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS DURING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
IMPACT OUTLOOKED TO BE GREATER FOR SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR DE BAY DISCONTINUED THIS EVENING. MAY NEED TO ADD SCA FOR
HAZ 5 FT SEAS FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ALONG
THE ATLC COAST, ESPECIALLY S NJ AND DE COASTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEAS ON THE OCEAN MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN PRE FRONTAL SOUTHERLY FLOW, BUT THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS MIGHT
REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN
AVERAGE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
BASED ON OUR LOCAL FORECAST APPLICATION USING A 4 FOOT SWELL/7
SECOND PERIOD AND SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 11 KNOTS, WE CONTINUE
WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR NEW JERSEY AND LOW RISK
FOR DELAWARE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KPHL TIP BUCKET NOT WORKING AND TRACE RAIN IS INCORRECT THIS
EVENING. POSSIBLY OVER AN INCH. WE`LL ESTIMATE TODAY.

THE CHART BELOW SHOWS RAINFALL STATISTICS AT OUR FOUR BIG CLIMATE
SITES THRU 6/29. THE COLUMNS ARE BROKEN DOWN BY SITE, "POR" (HOW
FAR RECORDS DATE BACK), JUNE 2015 RAINFALL, NORMAL JUNE RAINFALL,
JUNE 2015 RAINFALL RANKING, AS WELL AS THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.

SITE    POR     JUNE    NORMAL    RANK   WETTEST

ILG     1894    12.46    3.50      2ND     13.66 (2013)
ACY     1874     8.04    2.81      2ND      8.45 (1920)
ABE     1922     7.02    3.86      6TH     10.51 (1938)
PHL     1872     7.23    3.08     10TH     10.56 (2013)

AT THIS TIME, IT HAS BEEN THE SECOND WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD IN
BOTH WILMINGTON AND ATLANTIC CITY. WITH ONLY TODAY LEFT IN THE
MONTH, CURRENT FORECASTS DO NOT FAVOR EITHER SITE BREAKING THEIR
ALL-TIME JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. HOWEVER, IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A HEAVY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO CLOSE THE GAP, WHICH IS 0.41 INCHES IN
ATLANTIC CITY AND 1.2 INCHES IN WILMINGTON.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KPHL TIP BUCKET ERRONEOUS AND TICKET OUT ON IT. WILL BE FIXED
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-101-103-105.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ001-007>009.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI
NEAR TERM...DRAG 950
SHORT TERM...FRANCK
LONG TERM...GIGI/JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/GIGI 950
MARINE...DRAG/GIGI 950
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 010150
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
950 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH MID WEEK. AS IT
DOES SO, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO OUR REGION TOMORROW, FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY. THAT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL
JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
PWAT INCREASING TO 1.75 INCHES DELMARVA AND SE NJ TONIGHT. THATS
HUMID AND ANY TSTMS CAN DUMP .50 INCHES IN 15 MINUTES FOR BRIEF
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

STORMS MAY REORGANIZE INTO SUBSTANTIAL CLUSTERS AROUND ALONG THE
WARM FRONT LATER THIS EVENING WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE THE FOCUS.
THIS PERMITS POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS FROM I95 SEWD IN THE
02Z-08Z TIME FRAME.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT THRU 3 AM WED FOR PORTIONS
OF ERN PA AND NORTHWESTERN NJ...WHERE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
REFORM AND TRAIN.

PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUALLY IMPROVING WEATHER...AS BOTH POPS AND SKY COVER DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MAX TEMPS AOA AVG.

ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS IN NJ AND DE SHOULD END BY
EARLY AFTN. PWAT DECREASES STEADILY DURING THE DAY.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM IN ORDER TO FOCUS ON ONGOING SEVERE
THREAT.

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THERE WAS ABOUT A 50/50 SPLIT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND WRF- NMMB INITIALIZATION AT 500MB. FARTHER
DOWNWARD, THE WRF- NMMB LOOKED BETTER. DP/DTING THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE LOOKS STRONGER, WHILE THE ERN NOAM TROF IS BROADER. WHILE
THE MODELS AGREE ON A CONTINUATION OF THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN, THEY VARY ON DETAILS AND CONTINUE TO FIND THEMSELVES IN
ODD POSITIONS WITH THE NORMALLY SLOWER ECMWF AND WRF-NMMB
CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. AS PER
PMDHMD WE ARE LEANING AWAY FROM THESE FASTER RESULTS AND GOING
MORE TOWARD CONTINUITY. REGARDLESS WITH THE CURRENT PATTERN
REMAINING IN PLACE IT IS TOUGH TO CONFIDENTLY PREDICT MUCH
PROLONGED DRY WEATHER.

THE START OF THE LONG TERM DOES HAVE DECENT MODELING CONSENSUS.
WHILE THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA,
SHORT WAVES INTERACTING WITH THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD RE-GENERATE
MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS RATHER QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLD
POCKET ALOFT COUPLED WITH NEAR NEUTRAL LOWER LEVEL THERMAL
FIELDS KEEP PREDICTED TOTAL TOTALS AT OR AROUND 50C.
APPROPRIATELY MIXED LAYER CAPES (ABOVE 1000J IN DELMARVA) PEAK
DURING THE MORNING AND DECREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS
THE COLD POCKET GETS SHEARED. HIGHEST POPS ARE IN THE MORNING WITH
A TRAIL OFF AS THE DAY CONTINUES. STRONGER SHEAR AND CAPE ARE
DECOUPLED AND (CAPE) MAY NOT RAMP UP FAST ENOUGH GIVEN TIMING OF
FEATURES FOR SEVERE WHICH LOOKS BETTER NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA. AIR
MASS SUPPORTIVE OF MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MAX TEMPS MOST OF OUR CWA.

GIVEN THE BRIEF FLATTENING OF THE TROF ALOFT, WE DID NOT CARRY
MUCH OF A CHANCE OF THUNDER INTO THE NIGHT AND NO POPS ANYWHERE
OVERNIGHT. STAT GUIDANCE MINS LOOK REASONABLE.

ON THURSDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF
OUR CWA. FROM HERE THE TIMING OF IMPULSES ON THE FRONT START TO
DIVERGE. REGARDLESS, THE BOUNDARY IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO ACT AS A
TRIGGER WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE (THUS HIGHER POPS) IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF UR CWA. MIXED LAYER CAPES IN DELMARVA REACH THE LOWER
1000S, BUT ARE RELATIVELY LOW FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. THUNDER
CHANCES MAY BE OVERSTATED. THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST A 2-3F DROP OFF
IN MAX TEMPS FROM WED.

NOW THE MODELS REALLY START DIVERGING FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
WITH THE GFS AND CAN GGEM EMPHASIZING FRIDAY WITH THE ECMWF AND
WRF THURSDAY NIGHT. WHERE MODELS AGREE IS THAT INSTABILITY IN OUR
CWA IS MODEST AND THERE ARE HIGHER CHANCES SOUTH THAN NORTH.
TIMING RESOLUTION IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO FORECAST DRY WEATHER FOR
EITHER PERIOD. WE DID STEER HIGHER POPS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
GEFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE OP GFS.

IT DOES NOT BECOME MUCH CLEARER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH THE ECMWF
FORECASTING A DRY DAY AND THE CAN GGEM HAVING A TOTAL WASHOUT. MOST
MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING A SFC LOW ON THE LEVEL OF LAST SATURDAY,
SO FOR NOW WE KEPT THE FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY CLOSE TO
CONTINUITY AND SUMMER CLIMO AND NOT SOUND LIKE A TOTAL LOSS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY REMAIN CLOSE TO CONTINUITY. WITH BOTH THE GFS AND EC
DRY WE HAVE SUNDAY PREDICTED TO BE THE BETTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND
DAYS AND KEPT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR MONDAY AS THE
WARM FRONT IS PREDICTED TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...MAINLY VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT BUT WITH PATCHES OF
MVFR CIGS. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO 30-35 KT IN IFR TSTMS THROUGH
08Z. SE TO SSW FLOW NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. POSSIBLE DEVELOPING EXPANDING PATCHES IFR FOG/STRATUS
AFTER 08Z IF THE SHOWERS DISSIPATE. PLS SEE TAFS AND OBSERVATIONS
FOR DETAILS.

WEDNESDAY...VFR SCT AOA 5000 FT WITH CHANCE OF LEFTOVER SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTN HRS NJ/DE.
WINDS BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST AND MAY GUST TO 20 KT DURING THE
AFTERNOON.


OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR WITH ANY PCPN CHANCES DECREASING
QUICKLY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT SOME
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS DURING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
IMPACT OUTLOOKED TO BE GREATER FOR SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR DE BAY DISCONTINUED THIS EVENING. MAY NEED TO ADD SCA FOR
HAZ 5 FT SEAS FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ALONG
THE ATLC COAST, ESPECIALLY S NJ AND DE COASTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEAS ON THE OCEAN MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN PRE FRONTAL SOUTHERLY FLOW, BUT THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS MIGHT
REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN
AVERAGE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
BASED ON OUR LOCAL FORECAST APPLICATION USING A 4 FOOT SWELL/7
SECOND PERIOD AND SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 11 KNOTS, WE CONTINUE
WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR NEW JERSEY AND LOW RISK
FOR DELAWARE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KPHL TIP BUCKET NOT WORKING AND TRACE RAIN IS INCORRECT THIS
EVENING. POSSIBLY OVER AN INCH. WE`LL ESTIMATE TODAY.

THE CHART BELOW SHOWS RAINFALL STATISTICS AT OUR FOUR BIG CLIMATE
SITES THRU 6/29. THE COLUMNS ARE BROKEN DOWN BY SITE, "POR" (HOW
FAR RECORDS DATE BACK), JUNE 2015 RAINFALL, NORMAL JUNE RAINFALL,
JUNE 2015 RAINFALL RANKING, AS WELL AS THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.

SITE    POR     JUNE    NORMAL    RANK   WETTEST

ILG     1894    12.46    3.50      2ND     13.66 (2013)
ACY     1874     8.04    2.81      2ND      8.45 (1920)
ABE     1922     7.02    3.86      6TH     10.51 (1938)
PHL     1872     7.23    3.08     10TH     10.56 (2013)

AT THIS TIME, IT HAS BEEN THE SECOND WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD IN
BOTH WILMINGTON AND ATLANTIC CITY. WITH ONLY TODAY LEFT IN THE
MONTH, CURRENT FORECASTS DO NOT FAVOR EITHER SITE BREAKING THEIR
ALL-TIME JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. HOWEVER, IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A HEAVY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO CLOSE THE GAP, WHICH IS 0.41 INCHES IN
ATLANTIC CITY AND 1.2 INCHES IN WILMINGTON.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KPHL TIP BUCKET ERRONEOUS AND TICKET OUT ON IT. WILL BE FIXED
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-101-103-105.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ001-007>009.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI
NEAR TERM...DRAG 950
SHORT TERM...FRANCK
LONG TERM...GIGI/JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/GIGI 950
MARINE...DRAG/GIGI 950
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 010150
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
950 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH MID WEEK. AS IT
DOES SO, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO OUR REGION TOMORROW, FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY. THAT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL
JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
PWAT INCREASING TO 1.75 INCHES DELMARVA AND SE NJ TONIGHT. THATS
HUMID AND ANY TSTMS CAN DUMP .50 INCHES IN 15 MINUTES FOR BRIEF
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

STORMS MAY REORGANIZE INTO SUBSTANTIAL CLUSTERS AROUND ALONG THE
WARM FRONT LATER THIS EVENING WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE THE FOCUS.
THIS PERMITS POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS FROM I95 SEWD IN THE
02Z-08Z TIME FRAME.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT THRU 3 AM WED FOR PORTIONS
OF ERN PA AND NORTHWESTERN NJ...WHERE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
REFORM AND TRAIN.

PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUALLY IMPROVING WEATHER...AS BOTH POPS AND SKY COVER DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MAX TEMPS AOA AVG.

ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS IN NJ AND DE SHOULD END BY
EARLY AFTN. PWAT DECREASES STEADILY DURING THE DAY.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM IN ORDER TO FOCUS ON ONGOING SEVERE
THREAT.

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THERE WAS ABOUT A 50/50 SPLIT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND WRF- NMMB INITIALIZATION AT 500MB. FARTHER
DOWNWARD, THE WRF- NMMB LOOKED BETTER. DP/DTING THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE LOOKS STRONGER, WHILE THE ERN NOAM TROF IS BROADER. WHILE
THE MODELS AGREE ON A CONTINUATION OF THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN, THEY VARY ON DETAILS AND CONTINUE TO FIND THEMSELVES IN
ODD POSITIONS WITH THE NORMALLY SLOWER ECMWF AND WRF-NMMB
CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. AS PER
PMDHMD WE ARE LEANING AWAY FROM THESE FASTER RESULTS AND GOING
MORE TOWARD CONTINUITY. REGARDLESS WITH THE CURRENT PATTERN
REMAINING IN PLACE IT IS TOUGH TO CONFIDENTLY PREDICT MUCH
PROLONGED DRY WEATHER.

THE START OF THE LONG TERM DOES HAVE DECENT MODELING CONSENSUS.
WHILE THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA,
SHORT WAVES INTERACTING WITH THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD RE-GENERATE
MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS RATHER QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLD
POCKET ALOFT COUPLED WITH NEAR NEUTRAL LOWER LEVEL THERMAL
FIELDS KEEP PREDICTED TOTAL TOTALS AT OR AROUND 50C.
APPROPRIATELY MIXED LAYER CAPES (ABOVE 1000J IN DELMARVA) PEAK
DURING THE MORNING AND DECREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS
THE COLD POCKET GETS SHEARED. HIGHEST POPS ARE IN THE MORNING WITH
A TRAIL OFF AS THE DAY CONTINUES. STRONGER SHEAR AND CAPE ARE
DECOUPLED AND (CAPE) MAY NOT RAMP UP FAST ENOUGH GIVEN TIMING OF
FEATURES FOR SEVERE WHICH LOOKS BETTER NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA. AIR
MASS SUPPORTIVE OF MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MAX TEMPS MOST OF OUR CWA.

GIVEN THE BRIEF FLATTENING OF THE TROF ALOFT, WE DID NOT CARRY
MUCH OF A CHANCE OF THUNDER INTO THE NIGHT AND NO POPS ANYWHERE
OVERNIGHT. STAT GUIDANCE MINS LOOK REASONABLE.

ON THURSDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF
OUR CWA. FROM HERE THE TIMING OF IMPULSES ON THE FRONT START TO
DIVERGE. REGARDLESS, THE BOUNDARY IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO ACT AS A
TRIGGER WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE (THUS HIGHER POPS) IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF UR CWA. MIXED LAYER CAPES IN DELMARVA REACH THE LOWER
1000S, BUT ARE RELATIVELY LOW FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. THUNDER
CHANCES MAY BE OVERSTATED. THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST A 2-3F DROP OFF
IN MAX TEMPS FROM WED.

NOW THE MODELS REALLY START DIVERGING FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
WITH THE GFS AND CAN GGEM EMPHASIZING FRIDAY WITH THE ECMWF AND
WRF THURSDAY NIGHT. WHERE MODELS AGREE IS THAT INSTABILITY IN OUR
CWA IS MODEST AND THERE ARE HIGHER CHANCES SOUTH THAN NORTH.
TIMING RESOLUTION IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO FORECAST DRY WEATHER FOR
EITHER PERIOD. WE DID STEER HIGHER POPS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
GEFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE OP GFS.

IT DOES NOT BECOME MUCH CLEARER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH THE ECMWF
FORECASTING A DRY DAY AND THE CAN GGEM HAVING A TOTAL WASHOUT. MOST
MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING A SFC LOW ON THE LEVEL OF LAST SATURDAY,
SO FOR NOW WE KEPT THE FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY CLOSE TO
CONTINUITY AND SUMMER CLIMO AND NOT SOUND LIKE A TOTAL LOSS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY REMAIN CLOSE TO CONTINUITY. WITH BOTH THE GFS AND EC
DRY WE HAVE SUNDAY PREDICTED TO BE THE BETTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND
DAYS AND KEPT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR MONDAY AS THE
WARM FRONT IS PREDICTED TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...MAINLY VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT BUT WITH PATCHES OF
MVFR CIGS. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO 30-35 KT IN IFR TSTMS THROUGH
08Z. SE TO SSW FLOW NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. POSSIBLE DEVELOPING EXPANDING PATCHES IFR FOG/STRATUS
AFTER 08Z IF THE SHOWERS DISSIPATE. PLS SEE TAFS AND OBSERVATIONS
FOR DETAILS.

WEDNESDAY...VFR SCT AOA 5000 FT WITH CHANCE OF LEFTOVER SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTN HRS NJ/DE.
WINDS BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST AND MAY GUST TO 20 KT DURING THE
AFTERNOON.


OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR WITH ANY PCPN CHANCES DECREASING
QUICKLY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT SOME
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS DURING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
IMPACT OUTLOOKED TO BE GREATER FOR SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR DE BAY DISCONTINUED THIS EVENING. MAY NEED TO ADD SCA FOR
HAZ 5 FT SEAS FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ALONG
THE ATLC COAST, ESPECIALLY S NJ AND DE COASTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEAS ON THE OCEAN MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN PRE FRONTAL SOUTHERLY FLOW, BUT THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS MIGHT
REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN
AVERAGE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
BASED ON OUR LOCAL FORECAST APPLICATION USING A 4 FOOT SWELL/7
SECOND PERIOD AND SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 11 KNOTS, WE CONTINUE
WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR NEW JERSEY AND LOW RISK
FOR DELAWARE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KPHL TIP BUCKET NOT WORKING AND TRACE RAIN IS INCORRECT THIS
EVENING. POSSIBLY OVER AN INCH. WE`LL ESTIMATE TODAY.

THE CHART BELOW SHOWS RAINFALL STATISTICS AT OUR FOUR BIG CLIMATE
SITES THRU 6/29. THE COLUMNS ARE BROKEN DOWN BY SITE, "POR" (HOW
FAR RECORDS DATE BACK), JUNE 2015 RAINFALL, NORMAL JUNE RAINFALL,
JUNE 2015 RAINFALL RANKING, AS WELL AS THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.

SITE    POR     JUNE    NORMAL    RANK   WETTEST

ILG     1894    12.46    3.50      2ND     13.66 (2013)
ACY     1874     8.04    2.81      2ND      8.45 (1920)
ABE     1922     7.02    3.86      6TH     10.51 (1938)
PHL     1872     7.23    3.08     10TH     10.56 (2013)

AT THIS TIME, IT HAS BEEN THE SECOND WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD IN
BOTH WILMINGTON AND ATLANTIC CITY. WITH ONLY TODAY LEFT IN THE
MONTH, CURRENT FORECASTS DO NOT FAVOR EITHER SITE BREAKING THEIR
ALL-TIME JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. HOWEVER, IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A HEAVY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO CLOSE THE GAP, WHICH IS 0.41 INCHES IN
ATLANTIC CITY AND 1.2 INCHES IN WILMINGTON.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KPHL TIP BUCKET ERRONEOUS AND TICKET OUT ON IT. WILL BE FIXED
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-101-103-105.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ001-007>009.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI
NEAR TERM...DRAG 950
SHORT TERM...FRANCK
LONG TERM...GIGI/JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/GIGI 950
MARINE...DRAG/GIGI 950
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 010150
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
950 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH MID WEEK. AS IT
DOES SO, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO OUR REGION TOMORROW, FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY. THAT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL
JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
PWAT INCREASING TO 1.75 INCHES DELMARVA AND SE NJ TONIGHT. THATS
HUMID AND ANY TSTMS CAN DUMP .50 INCHES IN 15 MINUTES FOR BRIEF
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

STORMS MAY REORGANIZE INTO SUBSTANTIAL CLUSTERS AROUND ALONG THE
WARM FRONT LATER THIS EVENING WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE THE FOCUS.
THIS PERMITS POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS FROM I95 SEWD IN THE
02Z-08Z TIME FRAME.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT THRU 3 AM WED FOR PORTIONS
OF ERN PA AND NORTHWESTERN NJ...WHERE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
REFORM AND TRAIN.

PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUALLY IMPROVING WEATHER...AS BOTH POPS AND SKY COVER DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MAX TEMPS AOA AVG.

ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS IN NJ AND DE SHOULD END BY
EARLY AFTN. PWAT DECREASES STEADILY DURING THE DAY.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM IN ORDER TO FOCUS ON ONGOING SEVERE
THREAT.

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THERE WAS ABOUT A 50/50 SPLIT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND WRF- NMMB INITIALIZATION AT 500MB. FARTHER
DOWNWARD, THE WRF- NMMB LOOKED BETTER. DP/DTING THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE LOOKS STRONGER, WHILE THE ERN NOAM TROF IS BROADER. WHILE
THE MODELS AGREE ON A CONTINUATION OF THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN, THEY VARY ON DETAILS AND CONTINUE TO FIND THEMSELVES IN
ODD POSITIONS WITH THE NORMALLY SLOWER ECMWF AND WRF-NMMB
CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. AS PER
PMDHMD WE ARE LEANING AWAY FROM THESE FASTER RESULTS AND GOING
MORE TOWARD CONTINUITY. REGARDLESS WITH THE CURRENT PATTERN
REMAINING IN PLACE IT IS TOUGH TO CONFIDENTLY PREDICT MUCH
PROLONGED DRY WEATHER.

THE START OF THE LONG TERM DOES HAVE DECENT MODELING CONSENSUS.
WHILE THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA,
SHORT WAVES INTERACTING WITH THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD RE-GENERATE
MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS RATHER QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLD
POCKET ALOFT COUPLED WITH NEAR NEUTRAL LOWER LEVEL THERMAL
FIELDS KEEP PREDICTED TOTAL TOTALS AT OR AROUND 50C.
APPROPRIATELY MIXED LAYER CAPES (ABOVE 1000J IN DELMARVA) PEAK
DURING THE MORNING AND DECREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS
THE COLD POCKET GETS SHEARED. HIGHEST POPS ARE IN THE MORNING WITH
A TRAIL OFF AS THE DAY CONTINUES. STRONGER SHEAR AND CAPE ARE
DECOUPLED AND (CAPE) MAY NOT RAMP UP FAST ENOUGH GIVEN TIMING OF
FEATURES FOR SEVERE WHICH LOOKS BETTER NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA. AIR
MASS SUPPORTIVE OF MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MAX TEMPS MOST OF OUR CWA.

GIVEN THE BRIEF FLATTENING OF THE TROF ALOFT, WE DID NOT CARRY
MUCH OF A CHANCE OF THUNDER INTO THE NIGHT AND NO POPS ANYWHERE
OVERNIGHT. STAT GUIDANCE MINS LOOK REASONABLE.

ON THURSDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF
OUR CWA. FROM HERE THE TIMING OF IMPULSES ON THE FRONT START TO
DIVERGE. REGARDLESS, THE BOUNDARY IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO ACT AS A
TRIGGER WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE (THUS HIGHER POPS) IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF UR CWA. MIXED LAYER CAPES IN DELMARVA REACH THE LOWER
1000S, BUT ARE RELATIVELY LOW FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. THUNDER
CHANCES MAY BE OVERSTATED. THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST A 2-3F DROP OFF
IN MAX TEMPS FROM WED.

NOW THE MODELS REALLY START DIVERGING FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
WITH THE GFS AND CAN GGEM EMPHASIZING FRIDAY WITH THE ECMWF AND
WRF THURSDAY NIGHT. WHERE MODELS AGREE IS THAT INSTABILITY IN OUR
CWA IS MODEST AND THERE ARE HIGHER CHANCES SOUTH THAN NORTH.
TIMING RESOLUTION IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO FORECAST DRY WEATHER FOR
EITHER PERIOD. WE DID STEER HIGHER POPS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
GEFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE OP GFS.

IT DOES NOT BECOME MUCH CLEARER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH THE ECMWF
FORECASTING A DRY DAY AND THE CAN GGEM HAVING A TOTAL WASHOUT. MOST
MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING A SFC LOW ON THE LEVEL OF LAST SATURDAY,
SO FOR NOW WE KEPT THE FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY CLOSE TO
CONTINUITY AND SUMMER CLIMO AND NOT SOUND LIKE A TOTAL LOSS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY REMAIN CLOSE TO CONTINUITY. WITH BOTH THE GFS AND EC
DRY WE HAVE SUNDAY PREDICTED TO BE THE BETTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND
DAYS AND KEPT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR MONDAY AS THE
WARM FRONT IS PREDICTED TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...MAINLY VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT BUT WITH PATCHES OF
MVFR CIGS. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO 30-35 KT IN IFR TSTMS THROUGH
08Z. SE TO SSW FLOW NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. POSSIBLE DEVELOPING EXPANDING PATCHES IFR FOG/STRATUS
AFTER 08Z IF THE SHOWERS DISSIPATE. PLS SEE TAFS AND OBSERVATIONS
FOR DETAILS.

WEDNESDAY...VFR SCT AOA 5000 FT WITH CHANCE OF LEFTOVER SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTN HRS NJ/DE.
WINDS BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST AND MAY GUST TO 20 KT DURING THE
AFTERNOON.


OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR WITH ANY PCPN CHANCES DECREASING
QUICKLY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT SOME
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS DURING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
IMPACT OUTLOOKED TO BE GREATER FOR SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR DE BAY DISCONTINUED THIS EVENING. MAY NEED TO ADD SCA FOR
HAZ 5 FT SEAS FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ALONG
THE ATLC COAST, ESPECIALLY S NJ AND DE COASTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEAS ON THE OCEAN MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN PRE FRONTAL SOUTHERLY FLOW, BUT THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS MIGHT
REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN
AVERAGE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
BASED ON OUR LOCAL FORECAST APPLICATION USING A 4 FOOT SWELL/7
SECOND PERIOD AND SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 11 KNOTS, WE CONTINUE
WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR NEW JERSEY AND LOW RISK
FOR DELAWARE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KPHL TIP BUCKET NOT WORKING AND TRACE RAIN IS INCORRECT THIS
EVENING. POSSIBLY OVER AN INCH. WE`LL ESTIMATE TODAY.

THE CHART BELOW SHOWS RAINFALL STATISTICS AT OUR FOUR BIG CLIMATE
SITES THRU 6/29. THE COLUMNS ARE BROKEN DOWN BY SITE, "POR" (HOW
FAR RECORDS DATE BACK), JUNE 2015 RAINFALL, NORMAL JUNE RAINFALL,
JUNE 2015 RAINFALL RANKING, AS WELL AS THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.

SITE    POR     JUNE    NORMAL    RANK   WETTEST

ILG     1894    12.46    3.50      2ND     13.66 (2013)
ACY     1874     8.04    2.81      2ND      8.45 (1920)
ABE     1922     7.02    3.86      6TH     10.51 (1938)
PHL     1872     7.23    3.08     10TH     10.56 (2013)

AT THIS TIME, IT HAS BEEN THE SECOND WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD IN
BOTH WILMINGTON AND ATLANTIC CITY. WITH ONLY TODAY LEFT IN THE
MONTH, CURRENT FORECASTS DO NOT FAVOR EITHER SITE BREAKING THEIR
ALL-TIME JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. HOWEVER, IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A HEAVY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO CLOSE THE GAP, WHICH IS 0.41 INCHES IN
ATLANTIC CITY AND 1.2 INCHES IN WILMINGTON.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KPHL TIP BUCKET ERRONEOUS AND TICKET OUT ON IT. WILL BE FIXED
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-101-103-105.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ001-007>009.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI
NEAR TERM...DRAG 950
SHORT TERM...FRANCK
LONG TERM...GIGI/JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/GIGI 950
MARINE...DRAG/GIGI 950
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 010150
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
950 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH MID WEEK. AS IT
DOES SO, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO OUR REGION TOMORROW, FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY. THAT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL
JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
PWAT INCREASING TO 1.75 INCHES DELMARVA AND SE NJ TONIGHT. THATS
HUMID AND ANY TSTMS CAN DUMP .50 INCHES IN 15 MINUTES FOR BRIEF
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

STORMS MAY REORGANIZE INTO SUBSTANTIAL CLUSTERS AROUND ALONG THE
WARM FRONT LATER THIS EVENING WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE THE FOCUS.
THIS PERMITS POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS FROM I95 SEWD IN THE
02Z-08Z TIME FRAME.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT THRU 3 AM WED FOR PORTIONS
OF ERN PA AND NORTHWESTERN NJ...WHERE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
REFORM AND TRAIN.

PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUALLY IMPROVING WEATHER...AS BOTH POPS AND SKY COVER DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MAX TEMPS AOA AVG.

ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS IN NJ AND DE SHOULD END BY
EARLY AFTN. PWAT DECREASES STEADILY DURING THE DAY.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM IN ORDER TO FOCUS ON ONGOING SEVERE
THREAT.

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THERE WAS ABOUT A 50/50 SPLIT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND WRF- NMMB INITIALIZATION AT 500MB. FARTHER
DOWNWARD, THE WRF- NMMB LOOKED BETTER. DP/DTING THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE LOOKS STRONGER, WHILE THE ERN NOAM TROF IS BROADER. WHILE
THE MODELS AGREE ON A CONTINUATION OF THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN, THEY VARY ON DETAILS AND CONTINUE TO FIND THEMSELVES IN
ODD POSITIONS WITH THE NORMALLY SLOWER ECMWF AND WRF-NMMB
CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. AS PER
PMDHMD WE ARE LEANING AWAY FROM THESE FASTER RESULTS AND GOING
MORE TOWARD CONTINUITY. REGARDLESS WITH THE CURRENT PATTERN
REMAINING IN PLACE IT IS TOUGH TO CONFIDENTLY PREDICT MUCH
PROLONGED DRY WEATHER.

THE START OF THE LONG TERM DOES HAVE DECENT MODELING CONSENSUS.
WHILE THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA,
SHORT WAVES INTERACTING WITH THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD RE-GENERATE
MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS RATHER QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLD
POCKET ALOFT COUPLED WITH NEAR NEUTRAL LOWER LEVEL THERMAL
FIELDS KEEP PREDICTED TOTAL TOTALS AT OR AROUND 50C.
APPROPRIATELY MIXED LAYER CAPES (ABOVE 1000J IN DELMARVA) PEAK
DURING THE MORNING AND DECREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS
THE COLD POCKET GETS SHEARED. HIGHEST POPS ARE IN THE MORNING WITH
A TRAIL OFF AS THE DAY CONTINUES. STRONGER SHEAR AND CAPE ARE
DECOUPLED AND (CAPE) MAY NOT RAMP UP FAST ENOUGH GIVEN TIMING OF
FEATURES FOR SEVERE WHICH LOOKS BETTER NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA. AIR
MASS SUPPORTIVE OF MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MAX TEMPS MOST OF OUR CWA.

GIVEN THE BRIEF FLATTENING OF THE TROF ALOFT, WE DID NOT CARRY
MUCH OF A CHANCE OF THUNDER INTO THE NIGHT AND NO POPS ANYWHERE
OVERNIGHT. STAT GUIDANCE MINS LOOK REASONABLE.

ON THURSDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF
OUR CWA. FROM HERE THE TIMING OF IMPULSES ON THE FRONT START TO
DIVERGE. REGARDLESS, THE BOUNDARY IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO ACT AS A
TRIGGER WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE (THUS HIGHER POPS) IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF UR CWA. MIXED LAYER CAPES IN DELMARVA REACH THE LOWER
1000S, BUT ARE RELATIVELY LOW FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. THUNDER
CHANCES MAY BE OVERSTATED. THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST A 2-3F DROP OFF
IN MAX TEMPS FROM WED.

NOW THE MODELS REALLY START DIVERGING FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
WITH THE GFS AND CAN GGEM EMPHASIZING FRIDAY WITH THE ECMWF AND
WRF THURSDAY NIGHT. WHERE MODELS AGREE IS THAT INSTABILITY IN OUR
CWA IS MODEST AND THERE ARE HIGHER CHANCES SOUTH THAN NORTH.
TIMING RESOLUTION IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO FORECAST DRY WEATHER FOR
EITHER PERIOD. WE DID STEER HIGHER POPS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
GEFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE OP GFS.

IT DOES NOT BECOME MUCH CLEARER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH THE ECMWF
FORECASTING A DRY DAY AND THE CAN GGEM HAVING A TOTAL WASHOUT. MOST
MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING A SFC LOW ON THE LEVEL OF LAST SATURDAY,
SO FOR NOW WE KEPT THE FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY CLOSE TO
CONTINUITY AND SUMMER CLIMO AND NOT SOUND LIKE A TOTAL LOSS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY REMAIN CLOSE TO CONTINUITY. WITH BOTH THE GFS AND EC
DRY WE HAVE SUNDAY PREDICTED TO BE THE BETTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND
DAYS AND KEPT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR MONDAY AS THE
WARM FRONT IS PREDICTED TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...MAINLY VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT BUT WITH PATCHES OF
MVFR CIGS. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO 30-35 KT IN IFR TSTMS THROUGH
08Z. SE TO SSW FLOW NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. POSSIBLE DEVELOPING EXPANDING PATCHES IFR FOG/STRATUS
AFTER 08Z IF THE SHOWERS DISSIPATE. PLS SEE TAFS AND OBSERVATIONS
FOR DETAILS.

WEDNESDAY...VFR SCT AOA 5000 FT WITH CHANCE OF LEFTOVER SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTN HRS NJ/DE.
WINDS BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST AND MAY GUST TO 20 KT DURING THE
AFTERNOON.


OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR WITH ANY PCPN CHANCES DECREASING
QUICKLY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT SOME
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS DURING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
IMPACT OUTLOOKED TO BE GREATER FOR SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR DE BAY DISCONTINUED THIS EVENING. MAY NEED TO ADD SCA FOR
HAZ 5 FT SEAS FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ALONG
THE ATLC COAST, ESPECIALLY S NJ AND DE COASTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEAS ON THE OCEAN MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN PRE FRONTAL SOUTHERLY FLOW, BUT THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS MIGHT
REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN
AVERAGE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
BASED ON OUR LOCAL FORECAST APPLICATION USING A 4 FOOT SWELL/7
SECOND PERIOD AND SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 11 KNOTS, WE CONTINUE
WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR NEW JERSEY AND LOW RISK
FOR DELAWARE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KPHL TIP BUCKET NOT WORKING AND TRACE RAIN IS INCORRECT THIS
EVENING. POSSIBLY OVER AN INCH. WE`LL ESTIMATE TODAY.

THE CHART BELOW SHOWS RAINFALL STATISTICS AT OUR FOUR BIG CLIMATE
SITES THRU 6/29. THE COLUMNS ARE BROKEN DOWN BY SITE, "POR" (HOW
FAR RECORDS DATE BACK), JUNE 2015 RAINFALL, NORMAL JUNE RAINFALL,
JUNE 2015 RAINFALL RANKING, AS WELL AS THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.

SITE    POR     JUNE    NORMAL    RANK   WETTEST

ILG     1894    12.46    3.50      2ND     13.66 (2013)
ACY     1874     8.04    2.81      2ND      8.45 (1920)
ABE     1922     7.02    3.86      6TH     10.51 (1938)
PHL     1872     7.23    3.08     10TH     10.56 (2013)

AT THIS TIME, IT HAS BEEN THE SECOND WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD IN
BOTH WILMINGTON AND ATLANTIC CITY. WITH ONLY TODAY LEFT IN THE
MONTH, CURRENT FORECASTS DO NOT FAVOR EITHER SITE BREAKING THEIR
ALL-TIME JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. HOWEVER, IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A HEAVY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO CLOSE THE GAP, WHICH IS 0.41 INCHES IN
ATLANTIC CITY AND 1.2 INCHES IN WILMINGTON.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KPHL TIP BUCKET ERRONEOUS AND TICKET OUT ON IT. WILL BE FIXED
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-101-103-105.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ001-007>009.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI
NEAR TERM...DRAG 950
SHORT TERM...FRANCK
LONG TERM...GIGI/JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/GIGI 950
MARINE...DRAG/GIGI 950
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010139
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
939 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE
FRONT LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 378 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT FOR
THE ERN VA PIEDMONT AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VA. ALSO FOR
DORCHESTER COUNTY MD AND NORTHAMPTON COUNTY NC.

LATEST GOES VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTS EXPANDING CU FIELD OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG A LINE FROM SOUTH HILL TO RICHMOND AND THE NORTHERN
NECK IN VIC OF THE LEE/THERMAL TROUGH. BEGINNING TO SEE LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY INCREASING IN THESE CELLS...BUT THEY WILL CONTINUE TO
FIGHT THE WARM AIR ALOFT AND MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE IN THIS REGION THRU THE AFTERNOON...AS
LOCATIONS TO THE EAST FIGHT THE RIDGE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL WRN
ATLANTIC. SPC MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE ALONG
WITH 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS DUE TO STRONG SHEAR IN A REGION OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND A WELL MIXED BL. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO
EXPECTED. HAVE MAINTAINED 30-40 POPS THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION
REMAINS SCATTERED.

ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING/WEAKENING FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE THRU
THE AFTERNOON. BETTER HEIGHT FALLS/UVM ALSO ARRIVE THIS EVENING.
PV ANOMALY AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT PROGGED TO DEVELOP A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE THERMAL TROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS PROGGED TO
LIFTS INTO THE PIEDMONT FROM THE WEST...SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. CONTINUED INFLUENCE FROM THE WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE
EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS ACTIVITY AS IT REACHES THE COAST DUE TO WARM
TEMPS ALOFT. LLJ ALSO KICKS IN THIS EVENING...ADVECTING BETTER
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. DAMAGING WIND THREAT CONTINUES INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

POPS TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING LATE
(ESPECIALLY W). MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING ERN VA. LOW TONIGHT
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE REGION WEDS
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXITS THE NE COAST. OVERALL...THERE IS LITTLE
FORCING IN DEEP LAYER WLY FLOW. SFC TROUGH ALSO LOCATES ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. WILL RETAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOW END CHANCE POPS CLOSER TO THE
COAST WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC TROUGH.
HIGHS FORECAST IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDS NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S.

THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN NC AS ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER UPPER WAVE LOCATES OVER THE
MID MS VALLEY. 20-30 POPS THURS MORNING INCREASE TO 40-50 POPS
THURS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND CONTINUING THRU THE OVERNIGHT.
PWATS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 2+ INCHES THURS NIGHT IN DEEP LAYER
SWLY FLOW. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE IN CONCERT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY
LIFTING ALONG THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL THURS NIGHT. DUE TO THE RECENT RAINFALL (UP TO 600
PCT OF NORMAL THIS PAST WEEK)...MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AND HAS
BEEN HEADLINED IN THE HWO. 72 HR RAINFALL TOTALS (INCLUDING TODAY)
RANGE FROM OVER AN INCH FROM THE PIEDMONT INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH NEAR THE COAST. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS THURS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S. LOWS THURS NIGHT
IN THE MID- UPPER 60S NORTH TO LOW 70S SOUTH.

BOUNDARY AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION FRI AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID MS VALLEY LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL
MAINTAIN SOLID CHANCE POPS FRI AS SEVERAL WAVES CONTINUE TO SPREAD
OVER THE REGION. HIGHS FRI IN THE LOW-MID 80S (UPPER 70S FAR NW)
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY-CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPSTREAM BLOCKING PATTERN RESULTS IN LITTLE MOVEMENT OF OVERALL
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THRU THE HOLIDAY WKEND / MED RANGE PERIOD.

MODELS STALL WAVY FRONTAL BNDRY ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC REGION SAT.
GFS WANTS TO PUSH THIS BNDRY INTO NORTH CAROLINA SUN AS WEAK HIGH
PRS BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WHILE ECMWF KEEPS THE
BNDRY NEARLY STNRY ACROSS THE RGN. THE BNDRY PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRNT MONDAY WITH A TROF LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
THUS LOOK FOR CHC POPS EACH DAY AS TIMING OF ANY ONE DISTURBANCE
RATHER PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT.

HIGHS SAT / SUN IN THE M-U80S...85-90 MON / TUE. LOWS U60S-M70S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. S/SW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AS THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN NW OF THE AREA. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR SCT TSTMS THIS EVENING. TSTMS ARE PSBL AGAIN WED AFTN
AND EVENING THOUGH NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY.

OUTLOOK...A FRONTAL SYSTM WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE CONVECTION. THERE
WILL BE CHANCES FOR AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS EACH DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES ON THU AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL KEEP CRNT SCA HEADLINES UP FOR THE CHES BAY TONIGHT AS PRS
GRDNT TIGHTENS ENOUGH FOR MARGINAL (15-20 KT) WNDS. GRDNT RELAXES
WED MORNING KEEPING A WEAKER SLY/SWLY FLOW (10-15 KT) THRU WED NIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT. THE FRNT DROPS INTO THE AREA FM
THE NW ON THU...WITH WINDS BCMG LIGHT AND VRBL AS THE FRNT STALLS
THE LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THU NIGHT AND FRI. WAVES AVGG
1-2 FT AND SEAS AVGG 2-4 FT THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/SAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MPR



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010139
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
939 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE
FRONT LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 378 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT FOR
THE ERN VA PIEDMONT AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VA. ALSO FOR
DORCHESTER COUNTY MD AND NORTHAMPTON COUNTY NC.

LATEST GOES VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTS EXPANDING CU FIELD OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG A LINE FROM SOUTH HILL TO RICHMOND AND THE NORTHERN
NECK IN VIC OF THE LEE/THERMAL TROUGH. BEGINNING TO SEE LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY INCREASING IN THESE CELLS...BUT THEY WILL CONTINUE TO
FIGHT THE WARM AIR ALOFT AND MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE IN THIS REGION THRU THE AFTERNOON...AS
LOCATIONS TO THE EAST FIGHT THE RIDGE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL WRN
ATLANTIC. SPC MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE ALONG
WITH 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS DUE TO STRONG SHEAR IN A REGION OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND A WELL MIXED BL. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO
EXPECTED. HAVE MAINTAINED 30-40 POPS THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION
REMAINS SCATTERED.

ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING/WEAKENING FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE THRU
THE AFTERNOON. BETTER HEIGHT FALLS/UVM ALSO ARRIVE THIS EVENING.
PV ANOMALY AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT PROGGED TO DEVELOP A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE THERMAL TROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS PROGGED TO
LIFTS INTO THE PIEDMONT FROM THE WEST...SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. CONTINUED INFLUENCE FROM THE WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE
EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS ACTIVITY AS IT REACHES THE COAST DUE TO WARM
TEMPS ALOFT. LLJ ALSO KICKS IN THIS EVENING...ADVECTING BETTER
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. DAMAGING WIND THREAT CONTINUES INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

POPS TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING LATE
(ESPECIALLY W). MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING ERN VA. LOW TONIGHT
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE REGION WEDS
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXITS THE NE COAST. OVERALL...THERE IS LITTLE
FORCING IN DEEP LAYER WLY FLOW. SFC TROUGH ALSO LOCATES ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. WILL RETAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOW END CHANCE POPS CLOSER TO THE
COAST WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC TROUGH.
HIGHS FORECAST IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDS NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S.

THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN NC AS ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER UPPER WAVE LOCATES OVER THE
MID MS VALLEY. 20-30 POPS THURS MORNING INCREASE TO 40-50 POPS
THURS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND CONTINUING THRU THE OVERNIGHT.
PWATS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 2+ INCHES THURS NIGHT IN DEEP LAYER
SWLY FLOW. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE IN CONCERT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY
LIFTING ALONG THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL THURS NIGHT. DUE TO THE RECENT RAINFALL (UP TO 600
PCT OF NORMAL THIS PAST WEEK)...MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AND HAS
BEEN HEADLINED IN THE HWO. 72 HR RAINFALL TOTALS (INCLUDING TODAY)
RANGE FROM OVER AN INCH FROM THE PIEDMONT INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH NEAR THE COAST. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS THURS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S. LOWS THURS NIGHT
IN THE MID- UPPER 60S NORTH TO LOW 70S SOUTH.

BOUNDARY AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION FRI AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID MS VALLEY LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL
MAINTAIN SOLID CHANCE POPS FRI AS SEVERAL WAVES CONTINUE TO SPREAD
OVER THE REGION. HIGHS FRI IN THE LOW-MID 80S (UPPER 70S FAR NW)
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY-CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPSTREAM BLOCKING PATTERN RESULTS IN LITTLE MOVEMENT OF OVERALL
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THRU THE HOLIDAY WKEND / MED RANGE PERIOD.

MODELS STALL WAVY FRONTAL BNDRY ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC REGION SAT.
GFS WANTS TO PUSH THIS BNDRY INTO NORTH CAROLINA SUN AS WEAK HIGH
PRS BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WHILE ECMWF KEEPS THE
BNDRY NEARLY STNRY ACROSS THE RGN. THE BNDRY PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRNT MONDAY WITH A TROF LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
THUS LOOK FOR CHC POPS EACH DAY AS TIMING OF ANY ONE DISTURBANCE
RATHER PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT.

HIGHS SAT / SUN IN THE M-U80S...85-90 MON / TUE. LOWS U60S-M70S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. S/SW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AS THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN NW OF THE AREA. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR SCT TSTMS THIS EVENING. TSTMS ARE PSBL AGAIN WED AFTN
AND EVENING THOUGH NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY.

OUTLOOK...A FRONTAL SYSTM WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE CONVECTION. THERE
WILL BE CHANCES FOR AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS EACH DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES ON THU AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL KEEP CRNT SCA HEADLINES UP FOR THE CHES BAY TONIGHT AS PRS
GRDNT TIGHTENS ENOUGH FOR MARGINAL (15-20 KT) WNDS. GRDNT RELAXES
WED MORNING KEEPING A WEAKER SLY/SWLY FLOW (10-15 KT) THRU WED NIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT. THE FRNT DROPS INTO THE AREA FM
THE NW ON THU...WITH WINDS BCMG LIGHT AND VRBL AS THE FRNT STALLS
THE LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THU NIGHT AND FRI. WAVES AVGG
1-2 FT AND SEAS AVGG 2-4 FT THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/SAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MPR




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010122
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
922 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END EARLY TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT
PASSES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS EXITING THE RIDGES BY 01Z. ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS OHIO WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...SO HAVE LEFT
DIMINISHING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HAVE AGAIN
ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS AND DEW POINTS TOWARD LATEST TRENDS...WHICH
LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEW MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE AREA SAVE FOR THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND THE RIDGES MAY REMAIN DRY...AS SUBSIDENCE
AND WARMING TAKES PLACE ALOFT AND MIXING DRIES OUT THE SURFACE.
THIS MAY TAKE MOST OF THE DAY THOUGH...SO SOME SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY
MAY BE IN PLACE PER THE LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS.

IN ADDITION...THE 12Z GUIDANCE WANTS TO SHUNT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE AND A SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. HAVE PUSHED
CHANCE POPS SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THESE
TRENDS. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN WV THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDING
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY FROM KENTUCKY TO WEST VIRGINIA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STAY JUST BELOW OR NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE NOT NEEDED TO MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT COMPARED TO
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A
BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME DRY DAYS. HARD TO PINPOINT ANY
PARTICULAR POINT WHEN RAIN IS LIKELY...BUT SO FAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT SHIFT MUCH DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND
LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING...THOUGH AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM MAY BRUSH OH TERMINALS BEFORE MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING NEAR THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BRING MVFR/ISOLATED IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS CEILINGS LIFT AND EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT UNDER BUILDING
RIDGING.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
SOUTH OF PIT WITH A CROSSING DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010122
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
922 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END EARLY TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT
PASSES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS EXITING THE RIDGES BY 01Z. ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS OHIO WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...SO HAVE LEFT
DIMINISHING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HAVE AGAIN
ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS AND DEW POINTS TOWARD LATEST TRENDS...WHICH
LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEW MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE AREA SAVE FOR THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND THE RIDGES MAY REMAIN DRY...AS SUBSIDENCE
AND WARMING TAKES PLACE ALOFT AND MIXING DRIES OUT THE SURFACE.
THIS MAY TAKE MOST OF THE DAY THOUGH...SO SOME SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY
MAY BE IN PLACE PER THE LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS.

IN ADDITION...THE 12Z GUIDANCE WANTS TO SHUNT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE AND A SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. HAVE PUSHED
CHANCE POPS SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THESE
TRENDS. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN WV THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDING
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY FROM KENTUCKY TO WEST VIRGINIA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STAY JUST BELOW OR NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE NOT NEEDED TO MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT COMPARED TO
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A
BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME DRY DAYS. HARD TO PINPOINT ANY
PARTICULAR POINT WHEN RAIN IS LIKELY...BUT SO FAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT SHIFT MUCH DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND
LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING...THOUGH AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM MAY BRUSH OH TERMINALS BEFORE MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING NEAR THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BRING MVFR/ISOLATED IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS CEILINGS LIFT AND EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT UNDER BUILDING
RIDGING.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
SOUTH OF PIT WITH A CROSSING DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010122
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
922 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END EARLY TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT
PASSES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS EXITING THE RIDGES BY 01Z. ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS OHIO WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...SO HAVE LEFT
DIMINISHING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HAVE AGAIN
ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS AND DEW POINTS TOWARD LATEST TRENDS...WHICH
LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEW MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE AREA SAVE FOR THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND THE RIDGES MAY REMAIN DRY...AS SUBSIDENCE
AND WARMING TAKES PLACE ALOFT AND MIXING DRIES OUT THE SURFACE.
THIS MAY TAKE MOST OF THE DAY THOUGH...SO SOME SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY
MAY BE IN PLACE PER THE LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS.

IN ADDITION...THE 12Z GUIDANCE WANTS TO SHUNT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE AND A SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. HAVE PUSHED
CHANCE POPS SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THESE
TRENDS. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN WV THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDING
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY FROM KENTUCKY TO WEST VIRGINIA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STAY JUST BELOW OR NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE NOT NEEDED TO MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT COMPARED TO
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A
BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME DRY DAYS. HARD TO PINPOINT ANY
PARTICULAR POINT WHEN RAIN IS LIKELY...BUT SO FAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT SHIFT MUCH DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND
LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING...THOUGH AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM MAY BRUSH OH TERMINALS BEFORE MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING NEAR THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BRING MVFR/ISOLATED IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS CEILINGS LIFT AND EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT UNDER BUILDING
RIDGING.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
SOUTH OF PIT WITH A CROSSING DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010122
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
922 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END EARLY TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT
PASSES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS EXITING THE RIDGES BY 01Z. ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS OHIO WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...SO HAVE LEFT
DIMINISHING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HAVE AGAIN
ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS AND DEW POINTS TOWARD LATEST TRENDS...WHICH
LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEW MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE AREA SAVE FOR THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND THE RIDGES MAY REMAIN DRY...AS SUBSIDENCE
AND WARMING TAKES PLACE ALOFT AND MIXING DRIES OUT THE SURFACE.
THIS MAY TAKE MOST OF THE DAY THOUGH...SO SOME SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY
MAY BE IN PLACE PER THE LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS.

IN ADDITION...THE 12Z GUIDANCE WANTS TO SHUNT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE AND A SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. HAVE PUSHED
CHANCE POPS SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THESE
TRENDS. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN WV THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDING
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY FROM KENTUCKY TO WEST VIRGINIA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STAY JUST BELOW OR NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE NOT NEEDED TO MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT COMPARED TO
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A
BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME DRY DAYS. HARD TO PINPOINT ANY
PARTICULAR POINT WHEN RAIN IS LIKELY...BUT SO FAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT SHIFT MUCH DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND
LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING...THOUGH AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM MAY BRUSH OH TERMINALS BEFORE MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING NEAR THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BRING MVFR/ISOLATED IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS CEILINGS LIFT AND EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT UNDER BUILDING
RIDGING.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
SOUTH OF PIT WITH A CROSSING DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPHI 010102
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
902 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE EAST THROUGH MID WEEK. AS
IT DOES SO, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO OUR REGION TOMORROW, FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY. THAT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL
JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
PWAT INCREASING TO 1.75 INCHES DELMARVA AND SE NJ TONIGHT. THATS
HUMID AND ANY TSTMS CAN DUMP .50 INCHES IN 15 MINUTES FOR BRIEF
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

STORMS MAY REORGANIZE INTO SUBSTANTIAL CLUSTERS AROUND ALONG THE
WARM FRONT LA5TER THIS EVENING WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE THE FOCUS.
THIS PERMITS POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS FROM I95 SEWD IN THE
02Z-08Z TIME FRAME.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT THRU 3 AM WED FOR PORTIONS
OF ERN PA AND NORTHERN NJ...WHERE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO REFORM
AND TRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUALLY IMPROVING WEATHER...AS BOTH POPS AND SKY COVER DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MAX TEMPS AOA AVG.

ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS IN NJ AND DE SHOULD END BY
EARLY AFTN. PWAT DECREASES STEADILY DURING THE DAY.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM IN ORDER TO FOCUS ON ONGOING SEVERE
THREAT.

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THERE WAS ABOUT A 50/50 SPLIT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND WRF- NMMB INITIALIZATION AT 500MB. FARTHER
DOWNWARD, THE WRF- NMMB LOOKED BETTER. DP/DTING THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE LOOKS STRONGER, WHILE THE ERN NOAM TROF IS BROADER. WHILE
THE MODELS AGREE ON A CONTINUATION OF THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN, THEY VARY ON DETAILS AND CONTINUE TO FIND THEMSELVES IN
ODD POSITIONS WITH THE NORMALLY SLOWER ECMWF AND WRF-NMMB
CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. AS PER
PMDHMD WE ARE LEANING AWAY FROM THESE FASTER RESULTS AND GOING
MORE TOWARD CONTINUITY. REGARDLESS WITH THE CURRENT PATTERN
REMAINING IN PLACE IT IS TOUGH TO CONFIDENTLY PREDICT MUCH
PROLONGED DRY WEATHER.

THE START OF THE LONG TERM DOES HAVE DECENT MODELING CONSENSUS.
WHILE THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA,
SHORT WAVES INTERACTING WITH THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD RE-GENERATE
MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS RATHER QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLD
POCKET ALOFT COUPLED WITH NEAR NEUTRAL LOWER LEVEL THERMAL
FIELDS KEEP PREDICTED TOTAL TOTALS AT OR AROUND 50C.
APPROPRIATELY MIXED LAYER CAPES (ABOVE 1000J IN DELMARVA) PEAK
DURING THE MORNING AND DECREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS
THE COLD POCKET GETS SHEARED. HIGHEST POPS ARE IN THE MORNING WITH
A TRAIL OFF AS THE DAY CONTINUES. STRONGER SHEAR AND CAPE ARE
DECOUPLED AND (CAPE) MAY NOT RAMP UP FAST ENOUGH GIVEN TIMING OF
FEATURES FOR SEVERE WHICH LOOKS BETTER NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA. AIR
MASS SUPPORTIVE OF MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MAX TEMPS MOST OF OUR CWA.

GIVEN THE BRIEF FLATTENING OF THE TROF ALOFT, WE DID NOT CARRY
MUCH OF A CHANCE OF THUNDER INTO THE NIGHT AND NO POPS ANYWHERE
OVERNIGHT. STAT GUIDANCE MINS LOOK REASONABLE.

ON THURSDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF
OUR CWA. FROM HERE THE TIMING OF IMPULSES ON THE FRONT START TO
DIVERGE. REGARDLESS, THE BOUNDARY IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO ACT AS A
TRIGGER WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE (THUS HIGHER POPS) IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF UR CWA. MIXED LAYER CAPES IN DELMARVA REACH THE LOWER
1000S, BUT ARE RELATIVELY LOW FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. THUNDER
CHANCES MAY BE OVERSTATED. THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST A 2-3F DROP OFF
IN MAX TEMPS FROM WED.

NOW THE MODELS REALLY START DIVERGING FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
WITH THE GFS AND CAN GGEM EMPHASIZING FRIDAY WITH THE ECMWF AND
WRF THURSDAY NIGHT. WHERE MODELS AGREE IS THAT INSTABILITY IN OUR
CWA IS MODEST AND THERE ARE HIGHER CHANCES SOUTH THAN NORTH.
TIMING RESOLUTION IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO FORECAST DRY WEATHER FOR
EITHER PERIOD. WE DID STEER HIGHER POPS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
GEFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE OP GFS.

IT DOES NOT BECOME MUCH CLEARER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH THE ECMWF
FORECASTING A DRY DAY AND THE CAN GGEM HAVING A TOTAL WASHOUT. MOST
MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING A SFC LOW ON THE LEVEL OF LAST SATURDAY,
SO FOR NOW WE KEPT THE FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY CLOSE TO
CONTINUITY AND SUMMER CLIMO AND NOT SOUND LIKE A TOTAL LOSS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY REMAIN CLOSE TO CONTINUITY. WITH BOTH THE GFS AND EC
DRY WE HAVE SUNDAY PREDICTED TO BE THE BETTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND
DAYS AND KEPT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR MONDAY AS THE
WARM FRONT IS PREDICTED TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...MAINLY VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO
30-35 KT IN IFR TSTMS THROUGH 08Z. SE TO SSW FLOW NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. POSSIBLE DEVELOPING EXPANDING
PATCHES IFR FOG/STRATUS AFTER 08Z IF THE SHOWERS DISSIPATE. PLS
SEE TAFS AND OBSERVATIONS FOR DETAILS.

WEDNESDAY...VFR SCT AOA 5000 FT WITH CHANCE OF LEFTOVER SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTN HRS NJ/DE.
WINDS BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST AND MAY GUST TO 20 KT DURING THE
AFTERNOON.


OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR WITH ANY PCPN CHANCES DECREASING
QUICKLY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT SOME
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS DURING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
IMPACT OUTLOOKED TO BE GREATER FOR SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
755 PM: SCA CONTINUES FOR DE BAY, JUST FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING. NICE SE INFLOW AHEAD OF THE WFRONT. OTRW SCA SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED MOST AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEAS ON THE OCEAN MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN PRE FRONTAL SOUTHERLY FLOW, BUT THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS MIGHT
REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN
AVERAGE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
BASED ON OUR LOCAL FORECAST APPLICATION USING A 4 FOOT SWELL/7
SECOND PERIOD AND SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 11 KNOTS, WE CONTINUE
WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR NEW JERSEY AND LOW RISK
FOR DELAWARE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KPHL TIP BUCKET NOT WORKING AND TRACE RAIN IS INCORRECT THIS
EVENING. POSSIBLY OVER AN INCH. WE`LL ESTIMATE TODAY.

THE CHART BELOW SHOWS RAINFALL STATISTICS AT OUR FOUR BIG CLIMATE
SITES THRU 6/29. THE COLUMNS ARE BROKEN DOWN BY SITE, "POR" (HOW
FAR RECORDS DATE BACK), JUNE 2015 RAINFALL, NORMAL JUNE RAINFALL,
JUNE 2015 RAINFALL RANKING, AS WELL AS THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.

SITE    POR     JUNE    NORMAL    RANK   WETTEST

ILG     1894    12.46    3.50      2ND     13.66 (2013)
ACY     1874     8.04    2.81      2ND      8.45 (1920)
ABE     1922     7.02    3.86      6TH     10.51 (1938)
PHL     1872     7.23    3.08     10TH     10.56 (2013)

AT THIS TIME, IT HAS BEEN THE SECOND WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD IN
BOTH WILMINGTON AND ATLANTIC CITY. WITH ONLY TODAY LEFT IN THE
MONTH, CURRENT FORECASTS DO NOT FAVOR EITHER SITE BREAKING THEIR
ALL-TIME JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. HOWEVER, IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A HEAVY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO CLOSE THE GAP, WHICH IS 0.41 INCHES IN
ATLANTIC CITY AND 1.2 INCHES IN WILMINGTON.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KPHL TIP BUCKET ERRONEOUS AND TICKET OUT ON IT. WILL BE FIXED
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-101-103-105.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ001-007>009.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI
NEAR TERM...DRAG 901
SHORT TERM...FRANCK
LONG TERM...GIGI/JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/GIGI 901
MARINE...DRAG/GIGI 901
RIP CURRENTS...901
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 010102
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
902 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE EAST THROUGH MID WEEK. AS
IT DOES SO, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO OUR REGION TOMORROW, FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY. THAT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL
JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
PWAT INCREASING TO 1.75 INCHES DELMARVA AND SE NJ TONIGHT. THATS
HUMID AND ANY TSTMS CAN DUMP .50 INCHES IN 15 MINUTES FOR BRIEF
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

STORMS MAY REORGANIZE INTO SUBSTANTIAL CLUSTERS AROUND ALONG THE
WARM FRONT LA5TER THIS EVENING WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE THE FOCUS.
THIS PERMITS POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS FROM I95 SEWD IN THE
02Z-08Z TIME FRAME.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT THRU 3 AM WED FOR PORTIONS
OF ERN PA AND NORTHERN NJ...WHERE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO REFORM
AND TRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUALLY IMPROVING WEATHER...AS BOTH POPS AND SKY COVER DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MAX TEMPS AOA AVG.

ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS IN NJ AND DE SHOULD END BY
EARLY AFTN. PWAT DECREASES STEADILY DURING THE DAY.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM IN ORDER TO FOCUS ON ONGOING SEVERE
THREAT.

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THERE WAS ABOUT A 50/50 SPLIT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND WRF- NMMB INITIALIZATION AT 500MB. FARTHER
DOWNWARD, THE WRF- NMMB LOOKED BETTER. DP/DTING THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE LOOKS STRONGER, WHILE THE ERN NOAM TROF IS BROADER. WHILE
THE MODELS AGREE ON A CONTINUATION OF THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN, THEY VARY ON DETAILS AND CONTINUE TO FIND THEMSELVES IN
ODD POSITIONS WITH THE NORMALLY SLOWER ECMWF AND WRF-NMMB
CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. AS PER
PMDHMD WE ARE LEANING AWAY FROM THESE FASTER RESULTS AND GOING
MORE TOWARD CONTINUITY. REGARDLESS WITH THE CURRENT PATTERN
REMAINING IN PLACE IT IS TOUGH TO CONFIDENTLY PREDICT MUCH
PROLONGED DRY WEATHER.

THE START OF THE LONG TERM DOES HAVE DECENT MODELING CONSENSUS.
WHILE THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA,
SHORT WAVES INTERACTING WITH THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD RE-GENERATE
MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS RATHER QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLD
POCKET ALOFT COUPLED WITH NEAR NEUTRAL LOWER LEVEL THERMAL
FIELDS KEEP PREDICTED TOTAL TOTALS AT OR AROUND 50C.
APPROPRIATELY MIXED LAYER CAPES (ABOVE 1000J IN DELMARVA) PEAK
DURING THE MORNING AND DECREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS
THE COLD POCKET GETS SHEARED. HIGHEST POPS ARE IN THE MORNING WITH
A TRAIL OFF AS THE DAY CONTINUES. STRONGER SHEAR AND CAPE ARE
DECOUPLED AND (CAPE) MAY NOT RAMP UP FAST ENOUGH GIVEN TIMING OF
FEATURES FOR SEVERE WHICH LOOKS BETTER NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA. AIR
MASS SUPPORTIVE OF MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MAX TEMPS MOST OF OUR CWA.

GIVEN THE BRIEF FLATTENING OF THE TROF ALOFT, WE DID NOT CARRY
MUCH OF A CHANCE OF THUNDER INTO THE NIGHT AND NO POPS ANYWHERE
OVERNIGHT. STAT GUIDANCE MINS LOOK REASONABLE.

ON THURSDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF
OUR CWA. FROM HERE THE TIMING OF IMPULSES ON THE FRONT START TO
DIVERGE. REGARDLESS, THE BOUNDARY IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO ACT AS A
TRIGGER WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE (THUS HIGHER POPS) IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF UR CWA. MIXED LAYER CAPES IN DELMARVA REACH THE LOWER
1000S, BUT ARE RELATIVELY LOW FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. THUNDER
CHANCES MAY BE OVERSTATED. THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST A 2-3F DROP OFF
IN MAX TEMPS FROM WED.

NOW THE MODELS REALLY START DIVERGING FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
WITH THE GFS AND CAN GGEM EMPHASIZING FRIDAY WITH THE ECMWF AND
WRF THURSDAY NIGHT. WHERE MODELS AGREE IS THAT INSTABILITY IN OUR
CWA IS MODEST AND THERE ARE HIGHER CHANCES SOUTH THAN NORTH.
TIMING RESOLUTION IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO FORECAST DRY WEATHER FOR
EITHER PERIOD. WE DID STEER HIGHER POPS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
GEFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE OP GFS.

IT DOES NOT BECOME MUCH CLEARER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH THE ECMWF
FORECASTING A DRY DAY AND THE CAN GGEM HAVING A TOTAL WASHOUT. MOST
MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING A SFC LOW ON THE LEVEL OF LAST SATURDAY,
SO FOR NOW WE KEPT THE FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY CLOSE TO
CONTINUITY AND SUMMER CLIMO AND NOT SOUND LIKE A TOTAL LOSS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY REMAIN CLOSE TO CONTINUITY. WITH BOTH THE GFS AND EC
DRY WE HAVE SUNDAY PREDICTED TO BE THE BETTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND
DAYS AND KEPT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR MONDAY AS THE
WARM FRONT IS PREDICTED TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...MAINLY VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO
30-35 KT IN IFR TSTMS THROUGH 08Z. SE TO SSW FLOW NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. POSSIBLE DEVELOPING EXPANDING
PATCHES IFR FOG/STRATUS AFTER 08Z IF THE SHOWERS DISSIPATE. PLS
SEE TAFS AND OBSERVATIONS FOR DETAILS.

WEDNESDAY...VFR SCT AOA 5000 FT WITH CHANCE OF LEFTOVER SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTN HRS NJ/DE.
WINDS BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST AND MAY GUST TO 20 KT DURING THE
AFTERNOON.


OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR WITH ANY PCPN CHANCES DECREASING
QUICKLY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT SOME
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS DURING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
IMPACT OUTLOOKED TO BE GREATER FOR SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
755 PM: SCA CONTINUES FOR DE BAY, JUST FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING. NICE SE INFLOW AHEAD OF THE WFRONT. OTRW SCA SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED MOST AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEAS ON THE OCEAN MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN PRE FRONTAL SOUTHERLY FLOW, BUT THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS MIGHT
REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN
AVERAGE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
BASED ON OUR LOCAL FORECAST APPLICATION USING A 4 FOOT SWELL/7
SECOND PERIOD AND SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 11 KNOTS, WE CONTINUE
WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR NEW JERSEY AND LOW RISK
FOR DELAWARE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KPHL TIP BUCKET NOT WORKING AND TRACE RAIN IS INCORRECT THIS
EVENING. POSSIBLY OVER AN INCH. WE`LL ESTIMATE TODAY.

THE CHART BELOW SHOWS RAINFALL STATISTICS AT OUR FOUR BIG CLIMATE
SITES THRU 6/29. THE COLUMNS ARE BROKEN DOWN BY SITE, "POR" (HOW
FAR RECORDS DATE BACK), JUNE 2015 RAINFALL, NORMAL JUNE RAINFALL,
JUNE 2015 RAINFALL RANKING, AS WELL AS THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.

SITE    POR     JUNE    NORMAL    RANK   WETTEST

ILG     1894    12.46    3.50      2ND     13.66 (2013)
ACY     1874     8.04    2.81      2ND      8.45 (1920)
ABE     1922     7.02    3.86      6TH     10.51 (1938)
PHL     1872     7.23    3.08     10TH     10.56 (2013)

AT THIS TIME, IT HAS BEEN THE SECOND WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD IN
BOTH WILMINGTON AND ATLANTIC CITY. WITH ONLY TODAY LEFT IN THE
MONTH, CURRENT FORECASTS DO NOT FAVOR EITHER SITE BREAKING THEIR
ALL-TIME JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. HOWEVER, IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A HEAVY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO CLOSE THE GAP, WHICH IS 0.41 INCHES IN
ATLANTIC CITY AND 1.2 INCHES IN WILMINGTON.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KPHL TIP BUCKET ERRONEOUS AND TICKET OUT ON IT. WILL BE FIXED
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-101-103-105.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ001-007>009.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI
NEAR TERM...DRAG 901
SHORT TERM...FRANCK
LONG TERM...GIGI/JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/GIGI 901
MARINE...DRAG/GIGI 901
RIP CURRENTS...901
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 010032
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
832 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE EAST THROUGH MID WEEK. AS
IT DOES SO, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO OUR REGION TOMORROW, FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY. THAT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL
JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH EXPIRES AT 8 PM AND WE`LL UPDATE MULTIPLE
PRODUCTS AT THAT TIME. SCT TO BKN TSTMS SHOULD CROSS THE AREA
DURING THE NIGHT WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS.

STORMS MAY REORGANIZE INTO SUBSTANTIAL CLUSTERS AROUND 01Z ALONG
THE WARM FRONT WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE THE FOCUS. THIS PERMITS
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS FROM I95 SEWD IN THE 01Z-06Z TIME
FRAME.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT THRU 3 AM WED FOR PORTIONS
OF ERN PA AND NORTHERN NJ...WHERE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO REFORM
AND TRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUALLY IMPROVING WEATHER...AS BOTH POPS AND SKY COVER DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MAX TEMPS AOA AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM IN ORDER TO FOCUS ON ONGOING SEVERE
THREAT.

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THERE WAS ABOUT A 50/50 SPLIT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND WRF- NMMB INITIALIZATION AT 500MB. FARTHER
DOWNWARD, THE WRF- NMMB LOOKED BETTER. DP/DTING THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE LOOKS STRONGER, WHILE THE ERN NOAM TROF IS BROADER. WHILE
THE MODELS AGREE ON A CONTINUATION OF THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN, THEY VARY ON DETAILS AND CONTINUE TO FIND THEMSELVES IN
ODD POSITIONS WITH THE NORMALLY SLOWER ECMWF AND WRF-NMMB
CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. AS PER
PMDHMD WE ARE LEANING AWAY FROM THESE FASTER RESULTS AND GOING
MORE TOWARD CONTINUITY. REGARDLESS WITH THE CURRENT PATTERN
REMAINING IN PLACE IT IS TOUGH TO CONFIDENTLY PREDICT MUCH
PROLONGED DRY WEATHER.

THE START OF THE LONG TERM DOES HAVE DECENT MODELING CONSENSUS.
WHILE THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA,
SHORT WAVES INTERACTING WITH THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD RE-GENERATE
MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS RATHER QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLD
POCKET ALOFT COUPLED WITH NEAR NEUTRAL LOWER LEVEL THERMAL
FIELDS KEEP PREDICTED TOTAL TOTALS AT OR AROUND 50C.
APPROPRIATELY MIXED LAYER CAPES (ABOVE 1000J IN DELMARVA) PEAK
DURING THE MORNING AND DECREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS
THE COLD POCKET GETS SHEARED. HIGHEST POPS ARE IN THE MORNING WITH
A TRAIL OFF AS THE DAY CONTINUES. STRONGER SHEAR AND CAPE ARE
DECOUPLED AND (CAPE) MAY NOT RAMP UP FAST ENOUGH GIVEN TIMING OF
FEATURES FOR SEVERE WHICH LOOKS BETTER NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA. AIR
MASS SUPPORTIVE OF MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MAX TEMPS MOST OF OUR CWA.

GIVEN THE BRIEF FLATTENING OF THE TROF ALOFT, WE DID NOT CARRY
MUCH OF A CHANCE OF THUNDER INTO THE NIGHT AND NO POPS ANYWHERE
OVERNIGHT. STAT GUIDANCE MINS LOOK REASONABLE.

ON THURSDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF
OUR CWA. FROM HERE THE TIMING OF IMPULSES ON THE FRONT START TO
DIVERGE. REGARDLESS, THE BOUNDARY IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO ACT AS A
TRIGGER WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE (THUS HIGHER POPS) IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF UR CWA. MIXED LAYER CAPES IN DELMARVA REACH THE LOWER
1000S, BUT ARE RELATIVELY LOW FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. THUNDER
CHANCES MAY BE OVERSTATED. THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST A 2-3F DROP OFF
IN MAX TEMPS FROM WED.

NOW THE MODELS REALLY START DIVERGING FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
WITH THE GFS AND CAN GGEM EMPHASIZING FRIDAY WITH THE ECMWF AND
WRF THURSDAY NIGHT. WHERE MODELS AGREE IS THAT INSTABILITY IN OUR
CWA IS MODEST AND THERE ARE HIGHER CHANCES SOUTH THAN NORTH.
TIMING RESOLUTION IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO FORECAST DRY WEATHER FOR
EITHER PERIOD. WE DID STEER HIGHER POPS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
GEFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE OP GFS.

IT DOES NOT BECOME MUCH CLEARER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH THE ECMWF
FORECASTING A DRY DAY AND THE CAN GGEM HAVING A TOTAL WASHOUT. MOST
MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING A SFC LOW ON THE LEVEL OF LAST SATURDAY,
SO FOR NOW WE KEPT THE FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY CLOSE TO
CONTINUITY AND SUMMER CLIMO AND NOT SOUND LIKE A TOTAL LOSS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY REMAIN CLOSE TO CONTINUITY. WITH BOTH THE GFS AND EC
DRY WE HAVE SUNDAY PREDICTED TO BE THE BETTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND
DAYS AND KEPT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR MONDAY AS THE
WARM FRONT IS PREDICTED TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...MAINLY VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO
30-35 KT IN IFR TSTMS THROUGH 06Z. SE TO SSW FLOW NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. POSSIBLE DEVELOPING EXPANDING
PATCHES IFR FOG/STRATUS AFTER 06Z IF THE SHOWERS DISSIPATE. PLS
SEE TAFS FOR DETAILS.

WEDNESDAY...VFR SCT AOA 5000 FT WITH CHANCE OF LEFTOVER SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTN HRS NJ/DE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR WITH ANY PCPN CHANCES DECREASING
QUICKLY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT SOME
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS DURING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
IMPACT OUTLOOKED TO BE GREATER FOR SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
755 PM: SCA CONTINUES FOR DE BAY, JUST FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING. NICE SE INFLOW AHEAD OF THE WFRONT. OTRW SCA SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED MOST AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEAS ON THE OCEAN MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN PRE FRONTAL SOUTHERLY FLOW, BUT THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS MIGHT
REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN
AVERAGE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
BASED ON OUR LOCAL FORECAST APPLICATION USING A 3 FOOT WAVES/8
SECOND PERIOD AND SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND 12 KNOTS, WE CONTINUE
WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR NEW JERSEY AND LOW A
LOW RISK FOR DELAWARE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KPHL TIP BUCKET NOT WORKING AND TRACE RAIN IS INCORRECT THIS
EVENING. POSSIBLY OVER AN INCH. WE`LL ESTIMATE TODAY.

THE CHART BELOW SHOWS RAINFALL STATISTICS AT OUR FOUR BIG CLIMATE
SITES THRU 6/29. THE COLUMNS ARE BROKEN DOWN BY SITE, "POR" (HOW
FAR RECORDS DATE BACK), JUNE 2015 RAINFALL, NORMAL JUNE RAINFALL,
JUNE 2015 RAINFALL RANKING, AS WELL AS THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.

SITE    POR     JUNE    NORMAL    RANK   WETTEST

ILG     1894    12.46    3.50      2ND     13.66 (2013)
ACY     1874     8.04    2.81      2ND      8.45 (1920)
ABE     1922     7.02    3.86      6TH     10.51 (1938)
PHL     1872     7.23    3.08     10TH     10.56 (2013)

AT THIS TIME, IT HAS BEEN THE SECOND WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD IN
BOTH WILMINGTON AND ATLANTIC CITY. WITH ONLY TODAY LEFT IN THE
MONTH, CURRENT FORECASTS DO NOT FAVOR EITHER SITE BREAKING THEIR
ALL-TIME JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. HOWEVER, IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A HEAVY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO CLOSE THE GAP, WHICH IS 0.41 INCHES IN
ATLANTIC CITY AND 1.2 INCHES IN WILMINGTON.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KPHL TIP BUCKET ERRONEOUS AND TICKET OUT ON IT. WILL BE FIXED
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-101-103-105.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ001-007>009.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...FRANCK
LONG TERM...GIGI/JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/GIGI
MARINE...DRAG/GIGI
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...DRAG 832
EQUIPMENT...DRAG 832




000
FXUS61 KPHI 010032
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
832 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE EAST THROUGH MID WEEK. AS
IT DOES SO, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO OUR REGION TOMORROW, FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY. THAT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL
JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH EXPIRES AT 8 PM AND WE`LL UPDATE MULTIPLE
PRODUCTS AT THAT TIME. SCT TO BKN TSTMS SHOULD CROSS THE AREA
DURING THE NIGHT WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS.

STORMS MAY REORGANIZE INTO SUBSTANTIAL CLUSTERS AROUND 01Z ALONG
THE WARM FRONT WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE THE FOCUS. THIS PERMITS
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS FROM I95 SEWD IN THE 01Z-06Z TIME
FRAME.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT THRU 3 AM WED FOR PORTIONS
OF ERN PA AND NORTHERN NJ...WHERE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO REFORM
AND TRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUALLY IMPROVING WEATHER...AS BOTH POPS AND SKY COVER DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MAX TEMPS AOA AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM IN ORDER TO FOCUS ON ONGOING SEVERE
THREAT.

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THERE WAS ABOUT A 50/50 SPLIT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND WRF- NMMB INITIALIZATION AT 500MB. FARTHER
DOWNWARD, THE WRF- NMMB LOOKED BETTER. DP/DTING THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE LOOKS STRONGER, WHILE THE ERN NOAM TROF IS BROADER. WHILE
THE MODELS AGREE ON A CONTINUATION OF THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN, THEY VARY ON DETAILS AND CONTINUE TO FIND THEMSELVES IN
ODD POSITIONS WITH THE NORMALLY SLOWER ECMWF AND WRF-NMMB
CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. AS PER
PMDHMD WE ARE LEANING AWAY FROM THESE FASTER RESULTS AND GOING
MORE TOWARD CONTINUITY. REGARDLESS WITH THE CURRENT PATTERN
REMAINING IN PLACE IT IS TOUGH TO CONFIDENTLY PREDICT MUCH
PROLONGED DRY WEATHER.

THE START OF THE LONG TERM DOES HAVE DECENT MODELING CONSENSUS.
WHILE THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA,
SHORT WAVES INTERACTING WITH THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD RE-GENERATE
MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS RATHER QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLD
POCKET ALOFT COUPLED WITH NEAR NEUTRAL LOWER LEVEL THERMAL
FIELDS KEEP PREDICTED TOTAL TOTALS AT OR AROUND 50C.
APPROPRIATELY MIXED LAYER CAPES (ABOVE 1000J IN DELMARVA) PEAK
DURING THE MORNING AND DECREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS
THE COLD POCKET GETS SHEARED. HIGHEST POPS ARE IN THE MORNING WITH
A TRAIL OFF AS THE DAY CONTINUES. STRONGER SHEAR AND CAPE ARE
DECOUPLED AND (CAPE) MAY NOT RAMP UP FAST ENOUGH GIVEN TIMING OF
FEATURES FOR SEVERE WHICH LOOKS BETTER NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA. AIR
MASS SUPPORTIVE OF MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MAX TEMPS MOST OF OUR CWA.

GIVEN THE BRIEF FLATTENING OF THE TROF ALOFT, WE DID NOT CARRY
MUCH OF A CHANCE OF THUNDER INTO THE NIGHT AND NO POPS ANYWHERE
OVERNIGHT. STAT GUIDANCE MINS LOOK REASONABLE.

ON THURSDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF
OUR CWA. FROM HERE THE TIMING OF IMPULSES ON THE FRONT START TO
DIVERGE. REGARDLESS, THE BOUNDARY IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO ACT AS A
TRIGGER WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE (THUS HIGHER POPS) IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF UR CWA. MIXED LAYER CAPES IN DELMARVA REACH THE LOWER
1000S, BUT ARE RELATIVELY LOW FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. THUNDER
CHANCES MAY BE OVERSTATED. THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST A 2-3F DROP OFF
IN MAX TEMPS FROM WED.

NOW THE MODELS REALLY START DIVERGING FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
WITH THE GFS AND CAN GGEM EMPHASIZING FRIDAY WITH THE ECMWF AND
WRF THURSDAY NIGHT. WHERE MODELS AGREE IS THAT INSTABILITY IN OUR
CWA IS MODEST AND THERE ARE HIGHER CHANCES SOUTH THAN NORTH.
TIMING RESOLUTION IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO FORECAST DRY WEATHER FOR
EITHER PERIOD. WE DID STEER HIGHER POPS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
GEFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE OP GFS.

IT DOES NOT BECOME MUCH CLEARER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH THE ECMWF
FORECASTING A DRY DAY AND THE CAN GGEM HAVING A TOTAL WASHOUT. MOST
MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING A SFC LOW ON THE LEVEL OF LAST SATURDAY,
SO FOR NOW WE KEPT THE FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY CLOSE TO
CONTINUITY AND SUMMER CLIMO AND NOT SOUND LIKE A TOTAL LOSS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY REMAIN CLOSE TO CONTINUITY. WITH BOTH THE GFS AND EC
DRY WE HAVE SUNDAY PREDICTED TO BE THE BETTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND
DAYS AND KEPT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR MONDAY AS THE
WARM FRONT IS PREDICTED TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...MAINLY VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO
30-35 KT IN IFR TSTMS THROUGH 06Z. SE TO SSW FLOW NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. POSSIBLE DEVELOPING EXPANDING
PATCHES IFR FOG/STRATUS AFTER 06Z IF THE SHOWERS DISSIPATE. PLS
SEE TAFS FOR DETAILS.

WEDNESDAY...VFR SCT AOA 5000 FT WITH CHANCE OF LEFTOVER SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTN HRS NJ/DE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR WITH ANY PCPN CHANCES DECREASING
QUICKLY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT SOME
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS DURING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
IMPACT OUTLOOKED TO BE GREATER FOR SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
755 PM: SCA CONTINUES FOR DE BAY, JUST FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING. NICE SE INFLOW AHEAD OF THE WFRONT. OTRW SCA SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED MOST AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEAS ON THE OCEAN MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN PRE FRONTAL SOUTHERLY FLOW, BUT THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS MIGHT
REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN
AVERAGE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
BASED ON OUR LOCAL FORECAST APPLICATION USING A 3 FOOT WAVES/8
SECOND PERIOD AND SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND 12 KNOTS, WE CONTINUE
WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR NEW JERSEY AND LOW A
LOW RISK FOR DELAWARE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KPHL TIP BUCKET NOT WORKING AND TRACE RAIN IS INCORRECT THIS
EVENING. POSSIBLY OVER AN INCH. WE`LL ESTIMATE TODAY.

THE CHART BELOW SHOWS RAINFALL STATISTICS AT OUR FOUR BIG CLIMATE
SITES THRU 6/29. THE COLUMNS ARE BROKEN DOWN BY SITE, "POR" (HOW
FAR RECORDS DATE BACK), JUNE 2015 RAINFALL, NORMAL JUNE RAINFALL,
JUNE 2015 RAINFALL RANKING, AS WELL AS THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.

SITE    POR     JUNE    NORMAL    RANK   WETTEST

ILG     1894    12.46    3.50      2ND     13.66 (2013)
ACY     1874     8.04    2.81      2ND      8.45 (1920)
ABE     1922     7.02    3.86      6TH     10.51 (1938)
PHL     1872     7.23    3.08     10TH     10.56 (2013)

AT THIS TIME, IT HAS BEEN THE SECOND WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD IN
BOTH WILMINGTON AND ATLANTIC CITY. WITH ONLY TODAY LEFT IN THE
MONTH, CURRENT FORECASTS DO NOT FAVOR EITHER SITE BREAKING THEIR
ALL-TIME JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. HOWEVER, IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A HEAVY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO CLOSE THE GAP, WHICH IS 0.41 INCHES IN
ATLANTIC CITY AND 1.2 INCHES IN WILMINGTON.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KPHL TIP BUCKET ERRONEOUS AND TICKET OUT ON IT. WILL BE FIXED
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-101-103-105.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ001-007>009.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...FRANCK
LONG TERM...GIGI/JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/GIGI
MARINE...DRAG/GIGI
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...DRAG 832
EQUIPMENT...DRAG 832




000
FXUS61 KPHI 010032
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
832 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE EAST THROUGH MID WEEK. AS
IT DOES SO, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO OUR REGION TOMORROW, FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY. THAT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL
JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH EXPIRES AT 8 PM AND WE`LL UPDATE MULTIPLE
PRODUCTS AT THAT TIME. SCT TO BKN TSTMS SHOULD CROSS THE AREA
DURING THE NIGHT WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS.

STORMS MAY REORGANIZE INTO SUBSTANTIAL CLUSTERS AROUND 01Z ALONG
THE WARM FRONT WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE THE FOCUS. THIS PERMITS
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS FROM I95 SEWD IN THE 01Z-06Z TIME
FRAME.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT THRU 3 AM WED FOR PORTIONS
OF ERN PA AND NORTHERN NJ...WHERE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO REFORM
AND TRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUALLY IMPROVING WEATHER...AS BOTH POPS AND SKY COVER DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MAX TEMPS AOA AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM IN ORDER TO FOCUS ON ONGOING SEVERE
THREAT.

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THERE WAS ABOUT A 50/50 SPLIT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND WRF- NMMB INITIALIZATION AT 500MB. FARTHER
DOWNWARD, THE WRF- NMMB LOOKED BETTER. DP/DTING THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE LOOKS STRONGER, WHILE THE ERN NOAM TROF IS BROADER. WHILE
THE MODELS AGREE ON A CONTINUATION OF THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN, THEY VARY ON DETAILS AND CONTINUE TO FIND THEMSELVES IN
ODD POSITIONS WITH THE NORMALLY SLOWER ECMWF AND WRF-NMMB
CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. AS PER
PMDHMD WE ARE LEANING AWAY FROM THESE FASTER RESULTS AND GOING
MORE TOWARD CONTINUITY. REGARDLESS WITH THE CURRENT PATTERN
REMAINING IN PLACE IT IS TOUGH TO CONFIDENTLY PREDICT MUCH
PROLONGED DRY WEATHER.

THE START OF THE LONG TERM DOES HAVE DECENT MODELING CONSENSUS.
WHILE THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA,
SHORT WAVES INTERACTING WITH THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD RE-GENERATE
MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS RATHER QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLD
POCKET ALOFT COUPLED WITH NEAR NEUTRAL LOWER LEVEL THERMAL
FIELDS KEEP PREDICTED TOTAL TOTALS AT OR AROUND 50C.
APPROPRIATELY MIXED LAYER CAPES (ABOVE 1000J IN DELMARVA) PEAK
DURING THE MORNING AND DECREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS
THE COLD POCKET GETS SHEARED. HIGHEST POPS ARE IN THE MORNING WITH
A TRAIL OFF AS THE DAY CONTINUES. STRONGER SHEAR AND CAPE ARE
DECOUPLED AND (CAPE) MAY NOT RAMP UP FAST ENOUGH GIVEN TIMING OF
FEATURES FOR SEVERE WHICH LOOKS BETTER NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA. AIR
MASS SUPPORTIVE OF MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MAX TEMPS MOST OF OUR CWA.

GIVEN THE BRIEF FLATTENING OF THE TROF ALOFT, WE DID NOT CARRY
MUCH OF A CHANCE OF THUNDER INTO THE NIGHT AND NO POPS ANYWHERE
OVERNIGHT. STAT GUIDANCE MINS LOOK REASONABLE.

ON THURSDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF
OUR CWA. FROM HERE THE TIMING OF IMPULSES ON THE FRONT START TO
DIVERGE. REGARDLESS, THE BOUNDARY IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO ACT AS A
TRIGGER WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE (THUS HIGHER POPS) IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF UR CWA. MIXED LAYER CAPES IN DELMARVA REACH THE LOWER
1000S, BUT ARE RELATIVELY LOW FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. THUNDER
CHANCES MAY BE OVERSTATED. THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST A 2-3F DROP OFF
IN MAX TEMPS FROM WED.

NOW THE MODELS REALLY START DIVERGING FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
WITH THE GFS AND CAN GGEM EMPHASIZING FRIDAY WITH THE ECMWF AND
WRF THURSDAY NIGHT. WHERE MODELS AGREE IS THAT INSTABILITY IN OUR
CWA IS MODEST AND THERE ARE HIGHER CHANCES SOUTH THAN NORTH.
TIMING RESOLUTION IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO FORECAST DRY WEATHER FOR
EITHER PERIOD. WE DID STEER HIGHER POPS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
GEFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE OP GFS.

IT DOES NOT BECOME MUCH CLEARER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH THE ECMWF
FORECASTING A DRY DAY AND THE CAN GGEM HAVING A TOTAL WASHOUT. MOST
MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING A SFC LOW ON THE LEVEL OF LAST SATURDAY,
SO FOR NOW WE KEPT THE FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY CLOSE TO
CONTINUITY AND SUMMER CLIMO AND NOT SOUND LIKE A TOTAL LOSS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY REMAIN CLOSE TO CONTINUITY. WITH BOTH THE GFS AND EC
DRY WE HAVE SUNDAY PREDICTED TO BE THE BETTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND
DAYS AND KEPT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR MONDAY AS THE
WARM FRONT IS PREDICTED TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...MAINLY VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO
30-35 KT IN IFR TSTMS THROUGH 06Z. SE TO SSW FLOW NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. POSSIBLE DEVELOPING EXPANDING
PATCHES IFR FOG/STRATUS AFTER 06Z IF THE SHOWERS DISSIPATE. PLS
SEE TAFS FOR DETAILS.

WEDNESDAY...VFR SCT AOA 5000 FT WITH CHANCE OF LEFTOVER SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTN HRS NJ/DE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR WITH ANY PCPN CHANCES DECREASING
QUICKLY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT SOME
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS DURING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
IMPACT OUTLOOKED TO BE GREATER FOR SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
755 PM: SCA CONTINUES FOR DE BAY, JUST FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING. NICE SE INFLOW AHEAD OF THE WFRONT. OTRW SCA SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED MOST AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEAS ON THE OCEAN MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN PRE FRONTAL SOUTHERLY FLOW, BUT THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS MIGHT
REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN
AVERAGE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
BASED ON OUR LOCAL FORECAST APPLICATION USING A 3 FOOT WAVES/8
SECOND PERIOD AND SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND 12 KNOTS, WE CONTINUE
WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR NEW JERSEY AND LOW A
LOW RISK FOR DELAWARE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KPHL TIP BUCKET NOT WORKING AND TRACE RAIN IS INCORRECT THIS
EVENING. POSSIBLY OVER AN INCH. WE`LL ESTIMATE TODAY.

THE CHART BELOW SHOWS RAINFALL STATISTICS AT OUR FOUR BIG CLIMATE
SITES THRU 6/29. THE COLUMNS ARE BROKEN DOWN BY SITE, "POR" (HOW
FAR RECORDS DATE BACK), JUNE 2015 RAINFALL, NORMAL JUNE RAINFALL,
JUNE 2015 RAINFALL RANKING, AS WELL AS THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.

SITE    POR     JUNE    NORMAL    RANK   WETTEST

ILG     1894    12.46    3.50      2ND     13.66 (2013)
ACY     1874     8.04    2.81      2ND      8.45 (1920)
ABE     1922     7.02    3.86      6TH     10.51 (1938)
PHL     1872     7.23    3.08     10TH     10.56 (2013)

AT THIS TIME, IT HAS BEEN THE SECOND WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD IN
BOTH WILMINGTON AND ATLANTIC CITY. WITH ONLY TODAY LEFT IN THE
MONTH, CURRENT FORECASTS DO NOT FAVOR EITHER SITE BREAKING THEIR
ALL-TIME JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. HOWEVER, IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A HEAVY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO CLOSE THE GAP, WHICH IS 0.41 INCHES IN
ATLANTIC CITY AND 1.2 INCHES IN WILMINGTON.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KPHL TIP BUCKET ERRONEOUS AND TICKET OUT ON IT. WILL BE FIXED
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-101-103-105.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ001-007>009.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...FRANCK
LONG TERM...GIGI/JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/GIGI
MARINE...DRAG/GIGI
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...DRAG 832
EQUIPMENT...DRAG 832




000
FXUS61 KPHI 010032
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
832 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE EAST THROUGH MID WEEK. AS
IT DOES SO, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO OUR REGION TOMORROW, FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY. THAT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL
JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH EXPIRES AT 8 PM AND WE`LL UPDATE MULTIPLE
PRODUCTS AT THAT TIME. SCT TO BKN TSTMS SHOULD CROSS THE AREA
DURING THE NIGHT WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS.

STORMS MAY REORGANIZE INTO SUBSTANTIAL CLUSTERS AROUND 01Z ALONG
THE WARM FRONT WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE THE FOCUS. THIS PERMITS
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS FROM I95 SEWD IN THE 01Z-06Z TIME
FRAME.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT THRU 3 AM WED FOR PORTIONS
OF ERN PA AND NORTHERN NJ...WHERE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO REFORM
AND TRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUALLY IMPROVING WEATHER...AS BOTH POPS AND SKY COVER DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MAX TEMPS AOA AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM IN ORDER TO FOCUS ON ONGOING SEVERE
THREAT.

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THERE WAS ABOUT A 50/50 SPLIT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND WRF- NMMB INITIALIZATION AT 500MB. FARTHER
DOWNWARD, THE WRF- NMMB LOOKED BETTER. DP/DTING THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE LOOKS STRONGER, WHILE THE ERN NOAM TROF IS BROADER. WHILE
THE MODELS AGREE ON A CONTINUATION OF THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN, THEY VARY ON DETAILS AND CONTINUE TO FIND THEMSELVES IN
ODD POSITIONS WITH THE NORMALLY SLOWER ECMWF AND WRF-NMMB
CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. AS PER
PMDHMD WE ARE LEANING AWAY FROM THESE FASTER RESULTS AND GOING
MORE TOWARD CONTINUITY. REGARDLESS WITH THE CURRENT PATTERN
REMAINING IN PLACE IT IS TOUGH TO CONFIDENTLY PREDICT MUCH
PROLONGED DRY WEATHER.

THE START OF THE LONG TERM DOES HAVE DECENT MODELING CONSENSUS.
WHILE THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA,
SHORT WAVES INTERACTING WITH THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD RE-GENERATE
MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS RATHER QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLD
POCKET ALOFT COUPLED WITH NEAR NEUTRAL LOWER LEVEL THERMAL
FIELDS KEEP PREDICTED TOTAL TOTALS AT OR AROUND 50C.
APPROPRIATELY MIXED LAYER CAPES (ABOVE 1000J IN DELMARVA) PEAK
DURING THE MORNING AND DECREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS
THE COLD POCKET GETS SHEARED. HIGHEST POPS ARE IN THE MORNING WITH
A TRAIL OFF AS THE DAY CONTINUES. STRONGER SHEAR AND CAPE ARE
DECOUPLED AND (CAPE) MAY NOT RAMP UP FAST ENOUGH GIVEN TIMING OF
FEATURES FOR SEVERE WHICH LOOKS BETTER NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA. AIR
MASS SUPPORTIVE OF MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MAX TEMPS MOST OF OUR CWA.

GIVEN THE BRIEF FLATTENING OF THE TROF ALOFT, WE DID NOT CARRY
MUCH OF A CHANCE OF THUNDER INTO THE NIGHT AND NO POPS ANYWHERE
OVERNIGHT. STAT GUIDANCE MINS LOOK REASONABLE.

ON THURSDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF
OUR CWA. FROM HERE THE TIMING OF IMPULSES ON THE FRONT START TO
DIVERGE. REGARDLESS, THE BOUNDARY IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO ACT AS A
TRIGGER WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE (THUS HIGHER POPS) IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF UR CWA. MIXED LAYER CAPES IN DELMARVA REACH THE LOWER
1000S, BUT ARE RELATIVELY LOW FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. THUNDER
CHANCES MAY BE OVERSTATED. THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST A 2-3F DROP OFF
IN MAX TEMPS FROM WED.

NOW THE MODELS REALLY START DIVERGING FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
WITH THE GFS AND CAN GGEM EMPHASIZING FRIDAY WITH THE ECMWF AND
WRF THURSDAY NIGHT. WHERE MODELS AGREE IS THAT INSTABILITY IN OUR
CWA IS MODEST AND THERE ARE HIGHER CHANCES SOUTH THAN NORTH.
TIMING RESOLUTION IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO FORECAST DRY WEATHER FOR
EITHER PERIOD. WE DID STEER HIGHER POPS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
GEFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE OP GFS.

IT DOES NOT BECOME MUCH CLEARER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH THE ECMWF
FORECASTING A DRY DAY AND THE CAN GGEM HAVING A TOTAL WASHOUT. MOST
MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING A SFC LOW ON THE LEVEL OF LAST SATURDAY,
SO FOR NOW WE KEPT THE FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY CLOSE TO
CONTINUITY AND SUMMER CLIMO AND NOT SOUND LIKE A TOTAL LOSS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY REMAIN CLOSE TO CONTINUITY. WITH BOTH THE GFS AND EC
DRY WE HAVE SUNDAY PREDICTED TO BE THE BETTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND
DAYS AND KEPT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR MONDAY AS THE
WARM FRONT IS PREDICTED TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...MAINLY VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO
30-35 KT IN IFR TSTMS THROUGH 06Z. SE TO SSW FLOW NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. POSSIBLE DEVELOPING EXPANDING
PATCHES IFR FOG/STRATUS AFTER 06Z IF THE SHOWERS DISSIPATE. PLS
SEE TAFS FOR DETAILS.

WEDNESDAY...VFR SCT AOA 5000 FT WITH CHANCE OF LEFTOVER SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTN HRS NJ/DE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR WITH ANY PCPN CHANCES DECREASING
QUICKLY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT SOME
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS DURING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
IMPACT OUTLOOKED TO BE GREATER FOR SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
755 PM: SCA CONTINUES FOR DE BAY, JUST FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING. NICE SE INFLOW AHEAD OF THE WFRONT. OTRW SCA SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED MOST AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEAS ON THE OCEAN MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN PRE FRONTAL SOUTHERLY FLOW, BUT THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS MIGHT
REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN
AVERAGE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
BASED ON OUR LOCAL FORECAST APPLICATION USING A 3 FOOT WAVES/8
SECOND PERIOD AND SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND 12 KNOTS, WE CONTINUE
WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR NEW JERSEY AND LOW A
LOW RISK FOR DELAWARE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KPHL TIP BUCKET NOT WORKING AND TRACE RAIN IS INCORRECT THIS
EVENING. POSSIBLY OVER AN INCH. WE`LL ESTIMATE TODAY.

THE CHART BELOW SHOWS RAINFALL STATISTICS AT OUR FOUR BIG CLIMATE
SITES THRU 6/29. THE COLUMNS ARE BROKEN DOWN BY SITE, "POR" (HOW
FAR RECORDS DATE BACK), JUNE 2015 RAINFALL, NORMAL JUNE RAINFALL,
JUNE 2015 RAINFALL RANKING, AS WELL AS THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.

SITE    POR     JUNE    NORMAL    RANK   WETTEST

ILG     1894    12.46    3.50      2ND     13.66 (2013)
ACY     1874     8.04    2.81      2ND      8.45 (1920)
ABE     1922     7.02    3.86      6TH     10.51 (1938)
PHL     1872     7.23    3.08     10TH     10.56 (2013)

AT THIS TIME, IT HAS BEEN THE SECOND WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD IN
BOTH WILMINGTON AND ATLANTIC CITY. WITH ONLY TODAY LEFT IN THE
MONTH, CURRENT FORECASTS DO NOT FAVOR EITHER SITE BREAKING THEIR
ALL-TIME JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. HOWEVER, IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A HEAVY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO CLOSE THE GAP, WHICH IS 0.41 INCHES IN
ATLANTIC CITY AND 1.2 INCHES IN WILMINGTON.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KPHL TIP BUCKET ERRONEOUS AND TICKET OUT ON IT. WILL BE FIXED
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-101-103-105.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ001-007>009.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...FRANCK
LONG TERM...GIGI/JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/GIGI
MARINE...DRAG/GIGI
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...DRAG 832
EQUIPMENT...DRAG 832




000
FXUS61 KPHI 302351
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
751 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE EAST THROUGH MID WEEK. AS
IT DOES SO, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO OUR REGION TOMORROW, FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY. THAT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL
JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH EXPIRES AT 8 PM AND WE`LL UPDATE MULTIPLE
PRODUCTS AT THAT TIME. SCT TO BKN TSTMS SHOULD CROSS THE AREA
DURING THE NIGHT WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS.

STORMS MAY REORGANIZE INTO SUBSTANTIAL CLUSTERS AROUND 01Z ALONG
THE WARM FRONT WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE THE FOCUS. THIS PERMITS
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS FROM I95 SEWD IN THE 01Z-06Z TIME
FRAME.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT THRU 3 AM WED FOR PORTIONS
OF ERN PA AND NORTHERN NJ...WHERE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO REFORM
AND TRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUALLY IMPROVING WEATHER...AS BOTH POPS AND SKY COVER DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MAX TEMPS AOA AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM IN ORDER TO FOCUS ON ONGOING SEVERE
THREAT.

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THERE WAS ABOUT A 50/50 SPLIT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND WRF- NMMB INITIALIZATION AT 500MB. FARTHER
DOWNWARD, THE WRF- NMMB LOOKED BETTER. DP/DTING THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE LOOKS STRONGER, WHILE THE ERN NOAM TROF IS BROADER. WHILE
THE MODELS AGREE ON A CONTINUATION OF THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN, THEY VARY ON DETAILS AND CONTINUE TO FIND THEMSELVES IN
ODD POSITIONS WITH THE NORMALLY SLOWER ECMWF AND WRF-NMMB
CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. AS PER
PMDHMD WE ARE LEANING AWAY FROM THESE FASTER RESULTS AND GOING
MORE TOWARD CONTINUITY. REGARDLESS WITH THE CURRENT PATTERN
REMAINING IN PLACE IT IS TOUGH TO CONFIDENTLY PREDICT MUCH
PROLONGED DRY WEATHER.

THE START OF THE LONG TERM DOES HAVE DECENT MODELING CONSENSUS.
WHILE THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA,
SHORT WAVES INTERACTING WITH THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD RE-GENERATE
MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS RATHER QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLD
POCKET ALOFT COUPLED WITH NEAR NEUTRAL LOWER LEVEL THERMAL
FIELDS KEEP PREDICTED TOTAL TOTALS AT OR AROUND 50C.
APPROPRIATELY MIXED LAYER CAPES (ABOVE 1000J IN DELMARVA) PEAK
DURING THE MORNING AND DECREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS
THE COLD POCKET GETS SHEARED. HIGHEST POPS ARE IN THE MORNING WITH
A TRAIL OFF AS THE DAY CONTINUES. STRONGER SHEAR AND CAPE ARE
DECOUPLED AND (CAPE) MAY NOT RAMP UP FAST ENOUGH GIVEN TIMING OF
FEATURES FOR SEVERE WHICH LOOKS BETTER NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA. AIR
MASS SUPPORTIVE OF MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MAX TEMPS MOST OF OUR CWA.

GIVEN THE BRIEF FLATTENING OF THE TROF ALOFT, WE DID NOT CARRY
MUCH OF A CHANCE OF THUNDER INTO THE NIGHT AND NO POPS ANYWHERE
OVERNIGHT. STAT GUIDANCE MINS LOOK REASONABLE.

ON THURSDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF
OUR CWA. FROM HERE THE TIMING OF IMPULSES ON THE FRONT START TO
DIVERGE. REGARDLESS, THE BOUNDARY IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO ACT AS A
TRIGGER WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE (THUS HIGHER POPS) IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF UR CWA. MIXED LAYER CAPES IN DELMARVA REACH THE LOWER
1000S, BUT ARE RELATIVELY LOW FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. THUNDER
CHANCES MAY BE OVERSTATED. THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST A 2-3F DROP OFF
IN MAX TEMPS FROM WED.

NOW THE MODELS REALLY START DIVERGING FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
WITH THE GFS AND CAN GGEM EMPHASIZING FRIDAY WITH THE ECMWF AND
WRF THURSDAY NIGHT. WHERE MODELS AGREE IS THAT INSTABILITY IN OUR
CWA IS MODEST AND THERE ARE HIGHER CHANCES SOUTH THAN NORTH.
TIMING RESOLUTION IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO FORECAST DRY WEATHER FOR
EITHER PERIOD. WE DID STEER HIGHER POPS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
GEFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE OP GFS.

IT DOES NOT BECOME MUCH CLEARER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH THE ECMWF
FORECASTING A DRY DAY AND THE CAN GGEM HAVING A TOTAL WASHOUT. MOST
MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING A SFC LOW ON THE LEVEL OF LAST SATURDAY,
SO FOR NOW WE KEPT THE FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY CLOSE TO
CONTINUITY AND SUMMER CLIMO AND NOT SOUND LIKE A TOTAL LOSS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY REMAIN CLOSE TO CONTINUITY. WITH BOTH THE GFS AND EC
DRY WE HAVE SUNDAY PREDICTED TO BE THE BETTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND
DAYS AND KEPT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR MONDAY AS THE
WARM FRONT IS PREDICTED TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...MAINLY VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO
30-35 KT IN IFR TSTMS THROUGH 06Z. SE TO SSW FLOW NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. POSSIBLE DEVELOPING EXPANDING
PATCHES IFR FOG/STRATUS AFTER 06Z IF THE SHOWERS DISSIPATE. PLS
SEE TAFS FOR DETAILS.

WEDNESDAY...VFR SCT AOA 5000 FT WITH CHANCE OF LEFTOVER SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTN HRS NJ/DE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR WITH ANY PCPN CHANCES DECREASING
QUICKLY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT SOME
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS DURING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
IMPACT OUTLOOKED TO BE GREATER FOR SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
755 PM: SCA CONTINUES FOR DE BAY, JUST FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING. NICE SE INFLOW AHEAD OF THE WFRONT. OTRW SCA SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED MOST AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEAS ON THE OCEAN MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN PRE FRONTAL SOUTHERLY FLOW, BUT THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS MIGHT
REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN
AVERAGE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
BASED ON OUR LOCAL FORECAST APPLICATION USING A 3 FOOT WAVES/8
SECOND PERIOD AND SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND 12 KNOTS, WE CONTINUE
WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR NEW JERSEY AND LOW A
LOW RISK FOR DELAWARE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE CHART BELOW SHOWS RAINFALL STATISTICS AT OUR FOUR BIG CLIMATE
SITES THRU 6/29. THE COLUMNS ARE BROKEN DOWN BY SITE, "POR" (HOW
FAR RECORDS DATE BACK), JUNE 2015 RAINFALL, NORMAL JUNE RAINFALL,
JUNE 2015 RAINFALL RANKING, AS WELL AS THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.

SITE    POR     JUNE    NORMAL    RANK   WETTEST

ILG     1894    12.46    3.50      2ND     13.66 (2013)
ACY     1874     8.04    2.81      2ND      8.45 (1920)
ABE     1922     7.02    3.86      6TH     10.51 (1938)
PHL     1872     7.23    3.08     10TH     10.56 (2013)

AT THIS TIME, IT HAS BEEN THE SECOND WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD IN
BOTH WILMINGTON AND ATLANTIC CITY. WITH ONLY TODAY LEFT IN THE
MONTH, CURRENT FORECASTS DO NOT FAVOR EITHER SITE BREAKING THEIR
ALL-TIME JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. HOWEVER, IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A HEAVY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO CLOSE THE GAP, WHICH IS 0.41 INCHES IN
ATLANTIC CITY AND 1.2 INCHES IN WILMINGTON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-101-103-105.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ001-007>009.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI
NEAR TERM...DRAG 752P
SHORT TERM...FRANCK
LONG TERM...GIGI/JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/GIGI 752P
MARINE...DRAG/GIGI 752P
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 302351
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
751 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE EAST THROUGH MID WEEK. AS
IT DOES SO, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO OUR REGION TOMORROW, FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY. THAT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL
JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH EXPIRES AT 8 PM AND WE`LL UPDATE MULTIPLE
PRODUCTS AT THAT TIME. SCT TO BKN TSTMS SHOULD CROSS THE AREA
DURING THE NIGHT WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS.

STORMS MAY REORGANIZE INTO SUBSTANTIAL CLUSTERS AROUND 01Z ALONG
THE WARM FRONT WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE THE FOCUS. THIS PERMITS
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS FROM I95 SEWD IN THE 01Z-06Z TIME
FRAME.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT THRU 3 AM WED FOR PORTIONS
OF ERN PA AND NORTHERN NJ...WHERE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO REFORM
AND TRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUALLY IMPROVING WEATHER...AS BOTH POPS AND SKY COVER DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MAX TEMPS AOA AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM IN ORDER TO FOCUS ON ONGOING SEVERE
THREAT.

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THERE WAS ABOUT A 50/50 SPLIT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND WRF- NMMB INITIALIZATION AT 500MB. FARTHER
DOWNWARD, THE WRF- NMMB LOOKED BETTER. DP/DTING THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE LOOKS STRONGER, WHILE THE ERN NOAM TROF IS BROADER. WHILE
THE MODELS AGREE ON A CONTINUATION OF THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN, THEY VARY ON DETAILS AND CONTINUE TO FIND THEMSELVES IN
ODD POSITIONS WITH THE NORMALLY SLOWER ECMWF AND WRF-NMMB
CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. AS PER
PMDHMD WE ARE LEANING AWAY FROM THESE FASTER RESULTS AND GOING
MORE TOWARD CONTINUITY. REGARDLESS WITH THE CURRENT PATTERN
REMAINING IN PLACE IT IS TOUGH TO CONFIDENTLY PREDICT MUCH
PROLONGED DRY WEATHER.

THE START OF THE LONG TERM DOES HAVE DECENT MODELING CONSENSUS.
WHILE THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA,
SHORT WAVES INTERACTING WITH THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD RE-GENERATE
MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS RATHER QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLD
POCKET ALOFT COUPLED WITH NEAR NEUTRAL LOWER LEVEL THERMAL
FIELDS KEEP PREDICTED TOTAL TOTALS AT OR AROUND 50C.
APPROPRIATELY MIXED LAYER CAPES (ABOVE 1000J IN DELMARVA) PEAK
DURING THE MORNING AND DECREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS
THE COLD POCKET GETS SHEARED. HIGHEST POPS ARE IN THE MORNING WITH
A TRAIL OFF AS THE DAY CONTINUES. STRONGER SHEAR AND CAPE ARE
DECOUPLED AND (CAPE) MAY NOT RAMP UP FAST ENOUGH GIVEN TIMING OF
FEATURES FOR SEVERE WHICH LOOKS BETTER NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA. AIR
MASS SUPPORTIVE OF MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MAX TEMPS MOST OF OUR CWA.

GIVEN THE BRIEF FLATTENING OF THE TROF ALOFT, WE DID NOT CARRY
MUCH OF A CHANCE OF THUNDER INTO THE NIGHT AND NO POPS ANYWHERE
OVERNIGHT. STAT GUIDANCE MINS LOOK REASONABLE.

ON THURSDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF
OUR CWA. FROM HERE THE TIMING OF IMPULSES ON THE FRONT START TO
DIVERGE. REGARDLESS, THE BOUNDARY IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO ACT AS A
TRIGGER WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE (THUS HIGHER POPS) IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF UR CWA. MIXED LAYER CAPES IN DELMARVA REACH THE LOWER
1000S, BUT ARE RELATIVELY LOW FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. THUNDER
CHANCES MAY BE OVERSTATED. THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST A 2-3F DROP OFF
IN MAX TEMPS FROM WED.

NOW THE MODELS REALLY START DIVERGING FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
WITH THE GFS AND CAN GGEM EMPHASIZING FRIDAY WITH THE ECMWF AND
WRF THURSDAY NIGHT. WHERE MODELS AGREE IS THAT INSTABILITY IN OUR
CWA IS MODEST AND THERE ARE HIGHER CHANCES SOUTH THAN NORTH.
TIMING RESOLUTION IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO FORECAST DRY WEATHER FOR
EITHER PERIOD. WE DID STEER HIGHER POPS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
GEFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE OP GFS.

IT DOES NOT BECOME MUCH CLEARER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH THE ECMWF
FORECASTING A DRY DAY AND THE CAN GGEM HAVING A TOTAL WASHOUT. MOST
MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING A SFC LOW ON THE LEVEL OF LAST SATURDAY,
SO FOR NOW WE KEPT THE FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY CLOSE TO
CONTINUITY AND SUMMER CLIMO AND NOT SOUND LIKE A TOTAL LOSS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY REMAIN CLOSE TO CONTINUITY. WITH BOTH THE GFS AND EC
DRY WE HAVE SUNDAY PREDICTED TO BE THE BETTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND
DAYS AND KEPT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR MONDAY AS THE
WARM FRONT IS PREDICTED TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...MAINLY VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO
30-35 KT IN IFR TSTMS THROUGH 06Z. SE TO SSW FLOW NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. POSSIBLE DEVELOPING EXPANDING
PATCHES IFR FOG/STRATUS AFTER 06Z IF THE SHOWERS DISSIPATE. PLS
SEE TAFS FOR DETAILS.

WEDNESDAY...VFR SCT AOA 5000 FT WITH CHANCE OF LEFTOVER SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTN HRS NJ/DE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR WITH ANY PCPN CHANCES DECREASING
QUICKLY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT SOME
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS DURING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
IMPACT OUTLOOKED TO BE GREATER FOR SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
755 PM: SCA CONTINUES FOR DE BAY, JUST FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING. NICE SE INFLOW AHEAD OF THE WFRONT. OTRW SCA SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED MOST AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEAS ON THE OCEAN MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN PRE FRONTAL SOUTHERLY FLOW, BUT THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS MIGHT
REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN
AVERAGE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
BASED ON OUR LOCAL FORECAST APPLICATION USING A 3 FOOT WAVES/8
SECOND PERIOD AND SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND 12 KNOTS, WE CONTINUE
WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR NEW JERSEY AND LOW A
LOW RISK FOR DELAWARE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE CHART BELOW SHOWS RAINFALL STATISTICS AT OUR FOUR BIG CLIMATE
SITES THRU 6/29. THE COLUMNS ARE BROKEN DOWN BY SITE, "POR" (HOW
FAR RECORDS DATE BACK), JUNE 2015 RAINFALL, NORMAL JUNE RAINFALL,
JUNE 2015 RAINFALL RANKING, AS WELL AS THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.

SITE    POR     JUNE    NORMAL    RANK   WETTEST

ILG     1894    12.46    3.50      2ND     13.66 (2013)
ACY     1874     8.04    2.81      2ND      8.45 (1920)
ABE     1922     7.02    3.86      6TH     10.51 (1938)
PHL     1872     7.23    3.08     10TH     10.56 (2013)

AT THIS TIME, IT HAS BEEN THE SECOND WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD IN
BOTH WILMINGTON AND ATLANTIC CITY. WITH ONLY TODAY LEFT IN THE
MONTH, CURRENT FORECASTS DO NOT FAVOR EITHER SITE BREAKING THEIR
ALL-TIME JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. HOWEVER, IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A HEAVY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO CLOSE THE GAP, WHICH IS 0.41 INCHES IN
ATLANTIC CITY AND 1.2 INCHES IN WILMINGTON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-101-103-105.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ001-007>009.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI
NEAR TERM...DRAG 752P
SHORT TERM...FRANCK
LONG TERM...GIGI/JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/GIGI 752P
MARINE...DRAG/GIGI 752P
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 302351
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
751 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE EAST THROUGH MID WEEK. AS
IT DOES SO, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO OUR REGION TOMORROW, FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY. THAT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL
JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH EXPIRES AT 8 PM AND WE`LL UPDATE MULTIPLE
PRODUCTS AT THAT TIME. SCT TO BKN TSTMS SHOULD CROSS THE AREA
DURING THE NIGHT WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS.

STORMS MAY REORGANIZE INTO SUBSTANTIAL CLUSTERS AROUND 01Z ALONG
THE WARM FRONT WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE THE FOCUS. THIS PERMITS
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS FROM I95 SEWD IN THE 01Z-06Z TIME
FRAME.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT THRU 3 AM WED FOR PORTIONS
OF ERN PA AND NORTHERN NJ...WHERE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO REFORM
AND TRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUALLY IMPROVING WEATHER...AS BOTH POPS AND SKY COVER DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MAX TEMPS AOA AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM IN ORDER TO FOCUS ON ONGOING SEVERE
THREAT.

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THERE WAS ABOUT A 50/50 SPLIT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND WRF- NMMB INITIALIZATION AT 500MB. FARTHER
DOWNWARD, THE WRF- NMMB LOOKED BETTER. DP/DTING THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE LOOKS STRONGER, WHILE THE ERN NOAM TROF IS BROADER. WHILE
THE MODELS AGREE ON A CONTINUATION OF THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN, THEY VARY ON DETAILS AND CONTINUE TO FIND THEMSELVES IN
ODD POSITIONS WITH THE NORMALLY SLOWER ECMWF AND WRF-NMMB
CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. AS PER
PMDHMD WE ARE LEANING AWAY FROM THESE FASTER RESULTS AND GOING
MORE TOWARD CONTINUITY. REGARDLESS WITH THE CURRENT PATTERN
REMAINING IN PLACE IT IS TOUGH TO CONFIDENTLY PREDICT MUCH
PROLONGED DRY WEATHER.

THE START OF THE LONG TERM DOES HAVE DECENT MODELING CONSENSUS.
WHILE THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA,
SHORT WAVES INTERACTING WITH THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD RE-GENERATE
MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS RATHER QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLD
POCKET ALOFT COUPLED WITH NEAR NEUTRAL LOWER LEVEL THERMAL
FIELDS KEEP PREDICTED TOTAL TOTALS AT OR AROUND 50C.
APPROPRIATELY MIXED LAYER CAPES (ABOVE 1000J IN DELMARVA) PEAK
DURING THE MORNING AND DECREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS
THE COLD POCKET GETS SHEARED. HIGHEST POPS ARE IN THE MORNING WITH
A TRAIL OFF AS THE DAY CONTINUES. STRONGER SHEAR AND CAPE ARE
DECOUPLED AND (CAPE) MAY NOT RAMP UP FAST ENOUGH GIVEN TIMING OF
FEATURES FOR SEVERE WHICH LOOKS BETTER NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA. AIR
MASS SUPPORTIVE OF MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MAX TEMPS MOST OF OUR CWA.

GIVEN THE BRIEF FLATTENING OF THE TROF ALOFT, WE DID NOT CARRY
MUCH OF A CHANCE OF THUNDER INTO THE NIGHT AND NO POPS ANYWHERE
OVERNIGHT. STAT GUIDANCE MINS LOOK REASONABLE.

ON THURSDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF
OUR CWA. FROM HERE THE TIMING OF IMPULSES ON THE FRONT START TO
DIVERGE. REGARDLESS, THE BOUNDARY IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO ACT AS A
TRIGGER WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE (THUS HIGHER POPS) IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF UR CWA. MIXED LAYER CAPES IN DELMARVA REACH THE LOWER
1000S, BUT ARE RELATIVELY LOW FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. THUNDER
CHANCES MAY BE OVERSTATED. THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST A 2-3F DROP OFF
IN MAX TEMPS FROM WED.

NOW THE MODELS REALLY START DIVERGING FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
WITH THE GFS AND CAN GGEM EMPHASIZING FRIDAY WITH THE ECMWF AND
WRF THURSDAY NIGHT. WHERE MODELS AGREE IS THAT INSTABILITY IN OUR
CWA IS MODEST AND THERE ARE HIGHER CHANCES SOUTH THAN NORTH.
TIMING RESOLUTION IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO FORECAST DRY WEATHER FOR
EITHER PERIOD. WE DID STEER HIGHER POPS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
GEFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE OP GFS.

IT DOES NOT BECOME MUCH CLEARER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH THE ECMWF
FORECASTING A DRY DAY AND THE CAN GGEM HAVING A TOTAL WASHOUT. MOST
MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING A SFC LOW ON THE LEVEL OF LAST SATURDAY,
SO FOR NOW WE KEPT THE FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY CLOSE TO
CONTINUITY AND SUMMER CLIMO AND NOT SOUND LIKE A TOTAL LOSS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY REMAIN CLOSE TO CONTINUITY. WITH BOTH THE GFS AND EC
DRY WE HAVE SUNDAY PREDICTED TO BE THE BETTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND
DAYS AND KEPT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR MONDAY AS THE
WARM FRONT IS PREDICTED TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...MAINLY VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO
30-35 KT IN IFR TSTMS THROUGH 06Z. SE TO SSW FLOW NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. POSSIBLE DEVELOPING EXPANDING
PATCHES IFR FOG/STRATUS AFTER 06Z IF THE SHOWERS DISSIPATE. PLS
SEE TAFS FOR DETAILS.

WEDNESDAY...VFR SCT AOA 5000 FT WITH CHANCE OF LEFTOVER SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTN HRS NJ/DE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR WITH ANY PCPN CHANCES DECREASING
QUICKLY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT SOME
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS DURING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
IMPACT OUTLOOKED TO BE GREATER FOR SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
755 PM: SCA CONTINUES FOR DE BAY, JUST FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING. NICE SE INFLOW AHEAD OF THE WFRONT. OTRW SCA SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED MOST AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEAS ON THE OCEAN MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN PRE FRONTAL SOUTHERLY FLOW, BUT THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS MIGHT
REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN
AVERAGE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
BASED ON OUR LOCAL FORECAST APPLICATION USING A 3 FOOT WAVES/8
SECOND PERIOD AND SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND 12 KNOTS, WE CONTINUE
WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR NEW JERSEY AND LOW A
LOW RISK FOR DELAWARE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE CHART BELOW SHOWS RAINFALL STATISTICS AT OUR FOUR BIG CLIMATE
SITES THRU 6/29. THE COLUMNS ARE BROKEN DOWN BY SITE, "POR" (HOW
FAR RECORDS DATE BACK), JUNE 2015 RAINFALL, NORMAL JUNE RAINFALL,
JUNE 2015 RAINFALL RANKING, AS WELL AS THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.

SITE    POR     JUNE    NORMAL    RANK   WETTEST

ILG     1894    12.46    3.50      2ND     13.66 (2013)
ACY     1874     8.04    2.81      2ND      8.45 (1920)
ABE     1922     7.02    3.86      6TH     10.51 (1938)
PHL     1872     7.23    3.08     10TH     10.56 (2013)

AT THIS TIME, IT HAS BEEN THE SECOND WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD IN
BOTH WILMINGTON AND ATLANTIC CITY. WITH ONLY TODAY LEFT IN THE
MONTH, CURRENT FORECASTS DO NOT FAVOR EITHER SITE BREAKING THEIR
ALL-TIME JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. HOWEVER, IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A HEAVY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO CLOSE THE GAP, WHICH IS 0.41 INCHES IN
ATLANTIC CITY AND 1.2 INCHES IN WILMINGTON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-101-103-105.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ001-007>009.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI
NEAR TERM...DRAG 752P
SHORT TERM...FRANCK
LONG TERM...GIGI/JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/GIGI 752P
MARINE...DRAG/GIGI 752P
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 302337
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
737 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END THIS EVENING AS A WEAK FRONT
PASSES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LINE OF SCATTERED STRONG STORMS APPROACHING THE RIDGES AND WILL
EXIT BY 01Z. WATCH CANCELLED A BIT EARLY AS ONLY AN ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUST STILL POSSIBLE. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS AND DEW
POINTS TOWARD CURRENT OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEW MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE AREA SAVE FOR THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND THE RIDGES MAY REMAIN DRY...AS SUBSIDENCE
AND WARMING TAKES PLACE ALOFT AND MIXING DRIES OUT THE SURFACE.
THIS MAY TAKE MOST OF THE DAY THOUGH...SO SOME SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY
MAY BE IN PLACE PER THE LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS.

IN ADDITION...THE 12Z GUIDANCE WANTS TO SHUNT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE AND A SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. HAVE PUSHED
CHANCE POPS SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THESE
TRENDS. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN WV THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDING
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY FROM KENTUCKY TO WEST VIRGINIA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STAY JUST BELOW OR NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE NOT NEEDED TO MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT COMPARED TO
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A
BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME DRY DAYS. HARD TO PINPOINT ANY
PARTICULAR POINT WHEN RAIN IS LIKELY...BUT SO FAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT SHIFT MUCH DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND
LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK EAST ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...BRINGING MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. VFR IS EXPECTED BEHIND
THIS LINE UNTIL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING IS EXPECTED TO BRING
MVFR/ISOLATED IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UNDER BUILDING RIDGING.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WILL BE WITH
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 302337
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
737 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END THIS EVENING AS A WEAK FRONT
PASSES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LINE OF SCATTERED STRONG STORMS APPROACHING THE RIDGES AND WILL
EXIT BY 01Z. WATCH CANCELLED A BIT EARLY AS ONLY AN ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUST STILL POSSIBLE. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS AND DEW
POINTS TOWARD CURRENT OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEW MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE AREA SAVE FOR THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND THE RIDGES MAY REMAIN DRY...AS SUBSIDENCE
AND WARMING TAKES PLACE ALOFT AND MIXING DRIES OUT THE SURFACE.
THIS MAY TAKE MOST OF THE DAY THOUGH...SO SOME SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY
MAY BE IN PLACE PER THE LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS.

IN ADDITION...THE 12Z GUIDANCE WANTS TO SHUNT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE AND A SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. HAVE PUSHED
CHANCE POPS SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THESE
TRENDS. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN WV THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDING
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY FROM KENTUCKY TO WEST VIRGINIA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STAY JUST BELOW OR NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE NOT NEEDED TO MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT COMPARED TO
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A
BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME DRY DAYS. HARD TO PINPOINT ANY
PARTICULAR POINT WHEN RAIN IS LIKELY...BUT SO FAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT SHIFT MUCH DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND
LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK EAST ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...BRINGING MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. VFR IS EXPECTED BEHIND
THIS LINE UNTIL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING IS EXPECTED TO BRING
MVFR/ISOLATED IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UNDER BUILDING RIDGING.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WILL BE WITH
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 302337
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
737 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END THIS EVENING AS A WEAK FRONT
PASSES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LINE OF SCATTERED STRONG STORMS APPROACHING THE RIDGES AND WILL
EXIT BY 01Z. WATCH CANCELLED A BIT EARLY AS ONLY AN ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUST STILL POSSIBLE. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS AND DEW
POINTS TOWARD CURRENT OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEW MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE AREA SAVE FOR THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND THE RIDGES MAY REMAIN DRY...AS SUBSIDENCE
AND WARMING TAKES PLACE ALOFT AND MIXING DRIES OUT THE SURFACE.
THIS MAY TAKE MOST OF THE DAY THOUGH...SO SOME SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY
MAY BE IN PLACE PER THE LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS.

IN ADDITION...THE 12Z GUIDANCE WANTS TO SHUNT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE AND A SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. HAVE PUSHED
CHANCE POPS SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THESE
TRENDS. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN WV THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDING
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY FROM KENTUCKY TO WEST VIRGINIA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STAY JUST BELOW OR NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE NOT NEEDED TO MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT COMPARED TO
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A
BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME DRY DAYS. HARD TO PINPOINT ANY
PARTICULAR POINT WHEN RAIN IS LIKELY...BUT SO FAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT SHIFT MUCH DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND
LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK EAST ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...BRINGING MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. VFR IS EXPECTED BEHIND
THIS LINE UNTIL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING IS EXPECTED TO BRING
MVFR/ISOLATED IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UNDER BUILDING RIDGING.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WILL BE WITH
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 302337
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
737 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END THIS EVENING AS A WEAK FRONT
PASSES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LINE OF SCATTERED STRONG STORMS APPROACHING THE RIDGES AND WILL
EXIT BY 01Z. WATCH CANCELLED A BIT EARLY AS ONLY AN ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUST STILL POSSIBLE. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS AND DEW
POINTS TOWARD CURRENT OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEW MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE AREA SAVE FOR THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND THE RIDGES MAY REMAIN DRY...AS SUBSIDENCE
AND WARMING TAKES PLACE ALOFT AND MIXING DRIES OUT THE SURFACE.
THIS MAY TAKE MOST OF THE DAY THOUGH...SO SOME SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY
MAY BE IN PLACE PER THE LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS.

IN ADDITION...THE 12Z GUIDANCE WANTS TO SHUNT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE AND A SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. HAVE PUSHED
CHANCE POPS SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THESE
TRENDS. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN WV THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDING
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY FROM KENTUCKY TO WEST VIRGINIA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STAY JUST BELOW OR NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE NOT NEEDED TO MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT COMPARED TO
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A
BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME DRY DAYS. HARD TO PINPOINT ANY
PARTICULAR POINT WHEN RAIN IS LIKELY...BUT SO FAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT SHIFT MUCH DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND
LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK EAST ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...BRINGING MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. VFR IS EXPECTED BEHIND
THIS LINE UNTIL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING IS EXPECTED TO BRING
MVFR/ISOLATED IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UNDER BUILDING RIDGING.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WILL BE WITH
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPHI 302239
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
639 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE EAST THROUGH MID WEEK. AS
IT DOES SO, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO OUR REGION TOMORROW, FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY. THAT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL
JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO CONTINUE AS IS THOUGH WANTED TO CANCEL.
EXPECT STORMS TO REFIRE THIS EVENING AROUND 01Z ALONG THE WARM
FRONT WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE THE FOCUS. THIS PERMITS POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED STORMS FROM I95 SEWD IN THE 01Z-06Z TIME FRAME.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT THRU 3 AM WED FOR PORTIONS
OF ERN PA AND NORTHERN NJ...WHERE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO REFORM
AND TRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUALLY IMPROVING WEATHER...AS BOTH POPS AND SKY COVER DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MAX TEMPS AOA AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM IN ORDER TO FOCUS ON ONGOING SEVERE
THREAT.

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THERE WAS ABOUT A 50/50 SPLIT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND WRF- NMMB INITIALIZATION AT 500MB. FARTHER
DOWNWARD, THE WRF- NMMB LOOKED BETTER. DP/DTING THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE LOOKS STRONGER, WHILE THE ERN NOAM TROF IS BROADER. WHILE
THE MODELS AGREE ON A CONTINUATION OF THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN, THEY VARY ON DETAILS AND CONTINUE TO FIND THEMSELVES IN
ODD POSITIONS WITH THE NORMALLY SLOWER ECMWF AND WRF-NMMB
CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. AS PER
PMDHMD WE ARE LEANING AWAY FROM THESE FASTER RESULTS AND GOING
MORE TOWARD CONTINUITY. REGARDLESS WITH THE CURRENT PATTERN
REMAINING IN PLACE IT IS TOUGH TO CONFIDENTLY PREDICT MUCH
PROLONGED DRY WEATHER.

THE START OF THE LONG TERM DOES HAVE DECENT MODELING CONSENSUS.
WHILE THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA,
SHORT WAVES INTERACTING WITH THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD RE-GENERATE
MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS RATHER QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLD
POCKET ALOFT COUPLED WITH NEAR NEUTRAL LOWER LEVEL THERMAL
FIELDS KEEP PREDICTED TOTAL TOTALS AT OR AROUND 50C.
APPROPRIATELY MIXED LAYER CAPES (ABOVE 1000J IN DELMARVA) PEAK
DURING THE MORNING AND DECREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS
THE COLD POCKET GETS SHEARED. HIGHEST POPS ARE IN THE MORNING WITH
A TRAIL OFF AS THE DAY CONTINUES. STRONGER SHEAR AND CAPE ARE
DECOUPLED AND (CAPE) MAY NOT RAMP UP FAST ENOUGH GIVEN TIMING OF
FEATURES FOR SEVERE WHICH LOOKS BETTER NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA. AIR
MASS SUPPORTIVE OF MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MAX TEMPS MOST OF OUR CWA.

GIVEN THE BRIEF FLATTENING OF THE TROF ALOFT, WE DID NOT CARRY
MUCH OF A CHANCE OF THUNDER INTO THE NIGHT AND NO POPS ANYWHERE
OVERNIGHT. STAT GUIDANCE MINS LOOK REASONABLE.

ON THURSDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF
OUR CWA. FROM HERE THE TIMING OF IMPULSES ON THE FRONT START TO
DIVERGE. REGARDLESS, THE BOUNDARY IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO ACT AS A
TRIGGER WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE (THUS HIGHER POPS) IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF UR CWA. MIXED LAYER CAPES IN DELMARVA REACH THE LOWER
1000S, BUT ARE RELATIVELY LOW FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. THUNDER
CHANCES MAY BE OVERSTATED. THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST A 2-3F DROP OFF
IN MAX TEMPS FROM WED.

NOW THE MODELS REALLY START DIVERGING FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
WITH THE GFS AND CAN GGEM EMPHASIZING FRIDAY WITH THE ECMWF AND
WRF THURSDAY NIGHT. WHERE MODELS AGREE IS THAT INSTABILITY IN OUR
CWA IS MODEST AND THERE ARE HIGHER CHANCES SOUTH THAN NORTH.
TIMING RESOLUTION IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO FORECAST DRY WEATHER FOR
EITHER PERIOD. WE DID STEER HIGHER POPS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
GEFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE OP GFS.

IT DOES NOT BECOME MUCH CLEARER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH THE ECMWF
FORECASTING A DRY DAY AND THE CAN GGEM HAVING A TOTAL WASHOUT. MOST
MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING A SFC LOW ON THE LEVEL OF LAST SATURDAY,
SO FOR NOW WE KEPT THE FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY CLOSE TO
CONTINUITY AND SUMMER CLIMO AND NOT SOUND LIKE A TOTAL LOSS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY REMAIN CLOSE TO CONTINUITY. WITH BOTH THE GFS AND EC
DRY WE HAVE SUNDAY PREDICTED TO BE THE BETTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND
DAYS AND KEPT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR MONDAY AS THE
WARM FRONT IS PREDICTED TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. PATCHES CIGS NEAR 2000
FT ALONG THE NJ COAST. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO 30-35 KT IN IFR TSTMS
THROUGH 06Z. SE TO SSW FLOW NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. POSSIBLE DEVELOPING EXPANDING PATCHES IFR FOG/STRATUS
AFTER 06Z IF THE SHOWERS DISSIPATE. PLS SEE TAFS FOR DETAILS.

WEDNESDAY...VFR SCT AOA 5000 FT WITH CHANCE OF LEFTOVER SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTN HRS NJ/DE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR WITH ANY PCPN CHANCES DECREASING
QUICKLY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT SOME
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS DURING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
IMPACT OUTLOOKED TO BE GREATER FOR SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
635 PM: SCA ADDED FOR DE BAY, JUST FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING.
NICE SE INFLOW AHEAD OF THE WFRONT. OTRW SCA SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED MOST AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEAS ON THE OCEAN MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN PRE FRONTAL SOUTHERLY FLOW, BUT THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS MIGHT
REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN
AVERAGE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
BASED ON OUR LOCAL FORECAST APPLICATION USING A 3 FOOT WAVES/8
SECOND PERIOD AND SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND 12 KNOTS, WE CONTINUE
WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR NEW JERSEY AND LOW A
LOW RISK FOR DELAWARE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE CHART BELOW SHOWS RAINFALL STATISTICS AT OUR FOUR BIG CLIMATE
SITES THRU 6/29. THE COLUMNS ARE BROKEN DOWN BY SITE, "POR" (HOW
FAR RECORDS DATE BACK), JUNE 2015 RAINFALL, NORMAL JUNE RAINFALL,
JUNE 2015 RAINFALL RANKING, AS WELL AS THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.

SITE    POR     JUNE    NORMAL    RANK   WETTEST

ILG     1894    12.46    3.50      2ND     13.66 (2013)
ACY     1874     8.04    2.81      2ND      8.45 (1920)
ABE     1922     7.02    3.86      6TH     10.51 (1938)
PHL     1872     7.23    3.08     10TH     10.56 (2013)

AT THIS TIME, IT HAS BEEN THE SECOND WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD IN
BOTH WILMINGTON AND ATLANTIC CITY. WITH ONLY TODAY LEFT IN THE
MONTH, CURRENT FORECASTS DO NOT FAVOR EITHER SITE BREAKING THEIR
ALL-TIME JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. HOWEVER, IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A HEAVY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO CLOSE THE GAP, WHICH IS 0.41 INCHES IN
ATLANTIC CITY AND 1.2 INCHES IN WILMINGTON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-101-103-105.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ001-007>009.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI
NEAR TERM...DRAG/FRANCK
SHORT TERM...FRANCK
LONG TERM...GIGI/JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK/GIGI
MARINE...DRAG/FRANCK/GIGI 638P
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KLWX 302233
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
633 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
LATE ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN STALL ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
THE STALLED FRONT WILL LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HV CANCELLED SEVERE TSTM WATCHES FOR EVERYWHERE EAST OF THE BLUE
RDIGE XCPT FOR CALVERT AND STM ARYS CNTYS...AS WELL AS THE NRN
SHEN VALLEY/MRB-HGR AREA. THERES A LEE TROF THAT STILL MAY TRIGGER
A STORM OR TWO. THAT ACCOUNTS FOR THE ERN AREA. TO THE
WEST...THERES A DYING COMPLEX OF TSRA. WE DONT WANT TO DROP A
WATCH PREMATURELY TIL WERE CERTAIN WHAT ITS EVOLUTION WL BE.

THE CMPLX LKLY WL AFFECT THE CWFA THIS EVNG...PERHAPS INTO THE
OVNGT HRS. WHILE THERE SHOULD BE AN OVERALL EASTWARD PROGRESSION
AND DIURNAL WEAKENING OF ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...MODELS MAINTAIN
ELEVATED INSTBY OVERNIGHT AND DECENT SHEAR TNGT. MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING TOWARD DAYBREAK. THEREFORE SOME SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MIN TEMPS IN
THE LOWER/MID 60S WEST AND UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S EAST.

THE TROF WL EMERGE OVER THE ERN SHORE BY WED MRNG. A CDFNT WL BE
APPROACHING...ATTENDENT FM LOPRES THAT WL BE TRACKING ACRS QUEBEC
BY THAT TIME. HWVR...THE CDFNT LOOKS QUITE WEAK...AND AM
STRUGGLING TO FIND FORCING MECHANISMS. AMS WL STILL BE QUITE MOIST
BUT NOT THAT UNSTBL. MID LVL LAPSE RATES WL BE DECENT. WL HOLD
ONTO LOW END CHC POPS...HIER THAN MAV/MET...AND CONT TIL SUNSET.

AM NOT MAKING ANY SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES TO TEMPS ATTM. WL STILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR TMRW...SO TEMPS WL BE SLGTLY MUGGY WITH HIGHS
MID-UPR 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THURSDAY MORNING WHILE A COLD FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
HIGHLANDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FCST MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF
SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT. HEAVY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS ENHANCED LIFT
OCCURS IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A UPPER LEVEL JET. DUE TO THE TIME
OF DAY AND LACK OF INSTABILITY ALOFT...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN STORY THROUGH THE EXTENDED IS CONT CHCS FOR UNSETTLED WX...AS
STUBBORN FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR/OVER OUR AREA. THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO
FRONTAL LOCATION THROUGH THE EXTENDED. AS SUCH...IT IS DIFFICULT
DETERMINE THE SPATIOTEMPORAL EXTENT OF ANY ACTIVITY AND DETERMINE
CONVECTIVE VS SHOWER CHCS.

MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WHAT WILL THE WX BE LIKE ON SAT...FOR NOW
HAVE KEPT CHC POPS AND THUNDER...THOUGH THERE IS CERTAINLY BUST
POTENTIAL WITH THIS...AS FRONT COULD BE FAR ENOUGH TO OUR
SOUTH...WHICH WOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY (ELEVATED).

AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...TEMPS PROGGED TO REMAIN AOB CLIMO NORMS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD. DEWPOINTS ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 70F...SO NOT EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO BE VERY OPPRESSIVE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDS PREVAILING ATTM. TSRA DVLPMNT WL BE IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IN IMPACT AT A TERMINAL A BIT MORE
UNCERTAIN. AM USING VCTS TO COVER THRU EVENING PUSH...AND WL INCL
A TEMPO FOR SPECIFICS ONCE ITS MORE CERTAIN A TERMINAL WL BE
DIRECTLY AFFECTED. POTL FOR WINDS GUSTS 40-50 KT IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS.

BELIEVE OVERALL INTENSITY WL DECLINE OVNGT...BUT SUSPECT THERE WL
BE SOME ACTIVITY. FLGT RESTRICTIONS WL THEREFORE REMAIN PSBL...
BUT MORE LKLY MVFR. HWVR...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH IN STORM EVOLUTION.

TSRA CVRG LOOKING MUCH LWR ON WED...AS TROF WL BE EAST OF
TERMINALS. A WEAK CDFNT WL BE DROPPING SWD IN THE AFTN-EVNG. ITS
ENTIRELY PSBL THAT THERE WL BE NO TSRA AT ALL. TAFS VFR W/ CIGS
BKN-OVC050-060.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE
REGION

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH EXTENDED IS POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH SUB-VFR CONDS POSSIBLE NEAR TSTMS. VFR
CONDS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
S/SE CHANNELING OCCURING OVER THE WATERS ATTM. SCA REMAINS IN
EFFECT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG WIND GUSTS. GRADIENT WINDS WILL DIMINSH
OVERNIGHT. SW FLOW THROUGH WED AROUND 10 KT...ALTHOUGH MAY BE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER TOWARD TANGIER SOUND. LOWER CHANCE OF STORMS
THROUGH WED.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND MAY CAUSE
REDUCED VSBYS.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...THOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS FRONT WILL BE NEAR AREA
EACH DAY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EACH DAY...WHICH
COULD IMPACT MARINE CONCERNS

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LVLS RUNNING ABT A FOOT ABV ASTRO NORMS. THE LOWER OF THE
TWO HIGH TIDES ROLLING IN NOW...WHICH WL KEEP LEVELS BELOW ADVY
CRITERIA. HWVR...ISSUES WUD RESULT FROM THE NEXT TIDE...MIDNGT TO
NOON. TOO SOON TO ISSUE ADVY ATTM...BUT ONE MAY BE REQD BEFORE
EVNG OVER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ531>534-
     537-539>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     535-536-538.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...HTS/HAS/MSE
MARINE...HTS/HAS/MSE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 302233
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
633 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
LATE ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN STALL ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
THE STALLED FRONT WILL LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HV CANCELLED SEVERE TSTM WATCHES FOR EVERYWHERE EAST OF THE BLUE
RDIGE XCPT FOR CALVERT AND STM ARYS CNTYS...AS WELL AS THE NRN
SHEN VALLEY/MRB-HGR AREA. THERES A LEE TROF THAT STILL MAY TRIGGER
A STORM OR TWO. THAT ACCOUNTS FOR THE ERN AREA. TO THE
WEST...THERES A DYING COMPLEX OF TSRA. WE DONT WANT TO DROP A
WATCH PREMATURELY TIL WERE CERTAIN WHAT ITS EVOLUTION WL BE.

THE CMPLX LKLY WL AFFECT THE CWFA THIS EVNG...PERHAPS INTO THE
OVNGT HRS. WHILE THERE SHOULD BE AN OVERALL EASTWARD PROGRESSION
AND DIURNAL WEAKENING OF ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...MODELS MAINTAIN
ELEVATED INSTBY OVERNIGHT AND DECENT SHEAR TNGT. MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING TOWARD DAYBREAK. THEREFORE SOME SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MIN TEMPS IN
THE LOWER/MID 60S WEST AND UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S EAST.

THE TROF WL EMERGE OVER THE ERN SHORE BY WED MRNG. A CDFNT WL BE
APPROACHING...ATTENDENT FM LOPRES THAT WL BE TRACKING ACRS QUEBEC
BY THAT TIME. HWVR...THE CDFNT LOOKS QUITE WEAK...AND AM
STRUGGLING TO FIND FORCING MECHANISMS. AMS WL STILL BE QUITE MOIST
BUT NOT THAT UNSTBL. MID LVL LAPSE RATES WL BE DECENT. WL HOLD
ONTO LOW END CHC POPS...HIER THAN MAV/MET...AND CONT TIL SUNSET.

AM NOT MAKING ANY SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES TO TEMPS ATTM. WL STILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR TMRW...SO TEMPS WL BE SLGTLY MUGGY WITH HIGHS
MID-UPR 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THURSDAY MORNING WHILE A COLD FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
HIGHLANDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FCST MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF
SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT. HEAVY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS ENHANCED LIFT
OCCURS IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A UPPER LEVEL JET. DUE TO THE TIME
OF DAY AND LACK OF INSTABILITY ALOFT...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN STORY THROUGH THE EXTENDED IS CONT CHCS FOR UNSETTLED WX...AS
STUBBORN FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR/OVER OUR AREA. THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO
FRONTAL LOCATION THROUGH THE EXTENDED. AS SUCH...IT IS DIFFICULT
DETERMINE THE SPATIOTEMPORAL EXTENT OF ANY ACTIVITY AND DETERMINE
CONVECTIVE VS SHOWER CHCS.

MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WHAT WILL THE WX BE LIKE ON SAT...FOR NOW
HAVE KEPT CHC POPS AND THUNDER...THOUGH THERE IS CERTAINLY BUST
POTENTIAL WITH THIS...AS FRONT COULD BE FAR ENOUGH TO OUR
SOUTH...WHICH WOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY (ELEVATED).

AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...TEMPS PROGGED TO REMAIN AOB CLIMO NORMS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD. DEWPOINTS ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 70F...SO NOT EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO BE VERY OPPRESSIVE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDS PREVAILING ATTM. TSRA DVLPMNT WL BE IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IN IMPACT AT A TERMINAL A BIT MORE
UNCERTAIN. AM USING VCTS TO COVER THRU EVENING PUSH...AND WL INCL
A TEMPO FOR SPECIFICS ONCE ITS MORE CERTAIN A TERMINAL WL BE
DIRECTLY AFFECTED. POTL FOR WINDS GUSTS 40-50 KT IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS.

BELIEVE OVERALL INTENSITY WL DECLINE OVNGT...BUT SUSPECT THERE WL
BE SOME ACTIVITY. FLGT RESTRICTIONS WL THEREFORE REMAIN PSBL...
BUT MORE LKLY MVFR. HWVR...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH IN STORM EVOLUTION.

TSRA CVRG LOOKING MUCH LWR ON WED...AS TROF WL BE EAST OF
TERMINALS. A WEAK CDFNT WL BE DROPPING SWD IN THE AFTN-EVNG. ITS
ENTIRELY PSBL THAT THERE WL BE NO TSRA AT ALL. TAFS VFR W/ CIGS
BKN-OVC050-060.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE
REGION

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH EXTENDED IS POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH SUB-VFR CONDS POSSIBLE NEAR TSTMS. VFR
CONDS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
S/SE CHANNELING OCCURING OVER THE WATERS ATTM. SCA REMAINS IN
EFFECT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG WIND GUSTS. GRADIENT WINDS WILL DIMINSH
OVERNIGHT. SW FLOW THROUGH WED AROUND 10 KT...ALTHOUGH MAY BE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER TOWARD TANGIER SOUND. LOWER CHANCE OF STORMS
THROUGH WED.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND MAY CAUSE
REDUCED VSBYS.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...THOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS FRONT WILL BE NEAR AREA
EACH DAY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EACH DAY...WHICH
COULD IMPACT MARINE CONCERNS

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LVLS RUNNING ABT A FOOT ABV ASTRO NORMS. THE LOWER OF THE
TWO HIGH TIDES ROLLING IN NOW...WHICH WL KEEP LEVELS BELOW ADVY
CRITERIA. HWVR...ISSUES WUD RESULT FROM THE NEXT TIDE...MIDNGT TO
NOON. TOO SOON TO ISSUE ADVY ATTM...BUT ONE MAY BE REQD BEFORE
EVNG OVER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ531>534-
     537-539>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     535-536-538.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...HTS/HAS/MSE
MARINE...HTS/HAS/MSE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 302233
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
633 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
LATE ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN STALL ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
THE STALLED FRONT WILL LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HV CANCELLED SEVERE TSTM WATCHES FOR EVERYWHERE EAST OF THE BLUE
RDIGE XCPT FOR CALVERT AND STM ARYS CNTYS...AS WELL AS THE NRN
SHEN VALLEY/MRB-HGR AREA. THERES A LEE TROF THAT STILL MAY TRIGGER
A STORM OR TWO. THAT ACCOUNTS FOR THE ERN AREA. TO THE
WEST...THERES A DYING COMPLEX OF TSRA. WE DONT WANT TO DROP A
WATCH PREMATURELY TIL WERE CERTAIN WHAT ITS EVOLUTION WL BE.

THE CMPLX LKLY WL AFFECT THE CWFA THIS EVNG...PERHAPS INTO THE
OVNGT HRS. WHILE THERE SHOULD BE AN OVERALL EASTWARD PROGRESSION
AND DIURNAL WEAKENING OF ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...MODELS MAINTAIN
ELEVATED INSTBY OVERNIGHT AND DECENT SHEAR TNGT. MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING TOWARD DAYBREAK. THEREFORE SOME SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MIN TEMPS IN
THE LOWER/MID 60S WEST AND UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S EAST.

THE TROF WL EMERGE OVER THE ERN SHORE BY WED MRNG. A CDFNT WL BE
APPROACHING...ATTENDENT FM LOPRES THAT WL BE TRACKING ACRS QUEBEC
BY THAT TIME. HWVR...THE CDFNT LOOKS QUITE WEAK...AND AM
STRUGGLING TO FIND FORCING MECHANISMS. AMS WL STILL BE QUITE MOIST
BUT NOT THAT UNSTBL. MID LVL LAPSE RATES WL BE DECENT. WL HOLD
ONTO LOW END CHC POPS...HIER THAN MAV/MET...AND CONT TIL SUNSET.

AM NOT MAKING ANY SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES TO TEMPS ATTM. WL STILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR TMRW...SO TEMPS WL BE SLGTLY MUGGY WITH HIGHS
MID-UPR 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THURSDAY MORNING WHILE A COLD FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
HIGHLANDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FCST MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF
SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT. HEAVY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS ENHANCED LIFT
OCCURS IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A UPPER LEVEL JET. DUE TO THE TIME
OF DAY AND LACK OF INSTABILITY ALOFT...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN STORY THROUGH THE EXTENDED IS CONT CHCS FOR UNSETTLED WX...AS
STUBBORN FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR/OVER OUR AREA. THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO
FRONTAL LOCATION THROUGH THE EXTENDED. AS SUCH...IT IS DIFFICULT
DETERMINE THE SPATIOTEMPORAL EXTENT OF ANY ACTIVITY AND DETERMINE
CONVECTIVE VS SHOWER CHCS.

MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WHAT WILL THE WX BE LIKE ON SAT...FOR NOW
HAVE KEPT CHC POPS AND THUNDER...THOUGH THERE IS CERTAINLY BUST
POTENTIAL WITH THIS...AS FRONT COULD BE FAR ENOUGH TO OUR
SOUTH...WHICH WOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY (ELEVATED).

AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...TEMPS PROGGED TO REMAIN AOB CLIMO NORMS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD. DEWPOINTS ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 70F...SO NOT EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO BE VERY OPPRESSIVE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDS PREVAILING ATTM. TSRA DVLPMNT WL BE IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IN IMPACT AT A TERMINAL A BIT MORE
UNCERTAIN. AM USING VCTS TO COVER THRU EVENING PUSH...AND WL INCL
A TEMPO FOR SPECIFICS ONCE ITS MORE CERTAIN A TERMINAL WL BE
DIRECTLY AFFECTED. POTL FOR WINDS GUSTS 40-50 KT IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS.

BELIEVE OVERALL INTENSITY WL DECLINE OVNGT...BUT SUSPECT THERE WL
BE SOME ACTIVITY. FLGT RESTRICTIONS WL THEREFORE REMAIN PSBL...
BUT MORE LKLY MVFR. HWVR...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH IN STORM EVOLUTION.

TSRA CVRG LOOKING MUCH LWR ON WED...AS TROF WL BE EAST OF
TERMINALS. A WEAK CDFNT WL BE DROPPING SWD IN THE AFTN-EVNG. ITS
ENTIRELY PSBL THAT THERE WL BE NO TSRA AT ALL. TAFS VFR W/ CIGS
BKN-OVC050-060.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE
REGION

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH EXTENDED IS POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH SUB-VFR CONDS POSSIBLE NEAR TSTMS. VFR
CONDS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
S/SE CHANNELING OCCURING OVER THE WATERS ATTM. SCA REMAINS IN
EFFECT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG WIND GUSTS. GRADIENT WINDS WILL DIMINSH
OVERNIGHT. SW FLOW THROUGH WED AROUND 10 KT...ALTHOUGH MAY BE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER TOWARD TANGIER SOUND. LOWER CHANCE OF STORMS
THROUGH WED.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND MAY CAUSE
REDUCED VSBYS.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...THOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS FRONT WILL BE NEAR AREA
EACH DAY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EACH DAY...WHICH
COULD IMPACT MARINE CONCERNS

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LVLS RUNNING ABT A FOOT ABV ASTRO NORMS. THE LOWER OF THE
TWO HIGH TIDES ROLLING IN NOW...WHICH WL KEEP LEVELS BELOW ADVY
CRITERIA. HWVR...ISSUES WUD RESULT FROM THE NEXT TIDE...MIDNGT TO
NOON. TOO SOON TO ISSUE ADVY ATTM...BUT ONE MAY BE REQD BEFORE
EVNG OVER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ531>534-
     537-539>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     535-536-538.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...HTS/HAS/MSE
MARINE...HTS/HAS/MSE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 302233
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
633 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
LATE ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN STALL ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
THE STALLED FRONT WILL LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HV CANCELLED SEVERE TSTM WATCHES FOR EVERYWHERE EAST OF THE BLUE
RDIGE XCPT FOR CALVERT AND STM ARYS CNTYS...AS WELL AS THE NRN
SHEN VALLEY/MRB-HGR AREA. THERES A LEE TROF THAT STILL MAY TRIGGER
A STORM OR TWO. THAT ACCOUNTS FOR THE ERN AREA. TO THE
WEST...THERES A DYING COMPLEX OF TSRA. WE DONT WANT TO DROP A
WATCH PREMATURELY TIL WERE CERTAIN WHAT ITS EVOLUTION WL BE.

THE CMPLX LKLY WL AFFECT THE CWFA THIS EVNG...PERHAPS INTO THE
OVNGT HRS. WHILE THERE SHOULD BE AN OVERALL EASTWARD PROGRESSION
AND DIURNAL WEAKENING OF ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...MODELS MAINTAIN
ELEVATED INSTBY OVERNIGHT AND DECENT SHEAR TNGT. MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING TOWARD DAYBREAK. THEREFORE SOME SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MIN TEMPS IN
THE LOWER/MID 60S WEST AND UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S EAST.

THE TROF WL EMERGE OVER THE ERN SHORE BY WED MRNG. A CDFNT WL BE
APPROACHING...ATTENDENT FM LOPRES THAT WL BE TRACKING ACRS QUEBEC
BY THAT TIME. HWVR...THE CDFNT LOOKS QUITE WEAK...AND AM
STRUGGLING TO FIND FORCING MECHANISMS. AMS WL STILL BE QUITE MOIST
BUT NOT THAT UNSTBL. MID LVL LAPSE RATES WL BE DECENT. WL HOLD
ONTO LOW END CHC POPS...HIER THAN MAV/MET...AND CONT TIL SUNSET.

AM NOT MAKING ANY SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES TO TEMPS ATTM. WL STILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR TMRW...SO TEMPS WL BE SLGTLY MUGGY WITH HIGHS
MID-UPR 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THURSDAY MORNING WHILE A COLD FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
HIGHLANDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FCST MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF
SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT. HEAVY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS ENHANCED LIFT
OCCURS IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A UPPER LEVEL JET. DUE TO THE TIME
OF DAY AND LACK OF INSTABILITY ALOFT...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN STORY THROUGH THE EXTENDED IS CONT CHCS FOR UNSETTLED WX...AS
STUBBORN FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR/OVER OUR AREA. THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO
FRONTAL LOCATION THROUGH THE EXTENDED. AS SUCH...IT IS DIFFICULT
DETERMINE THE SPATIOTEMPORAL EXTENT OF ANY ACTIVITY AND DETERMINE
CONVECTIVE VS SHOWER CHCS.

MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WHAT WILL THE WX BE LIKE ON SAT...FOR NOW
HAVE KEPT CHC POPS AND THUNDER...THOUGH THERE IS CERTAINLY BUST
POTENTIAL WITH THIS...AS FRONT COULD BE FAR ENOUGH TO OUR
SOUTH...WHICH WOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY (ELEVATED).

AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...TEMPS PROGGED TO REMAIN AOB CLIMO NORMS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD. DEWPOINTS ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 70F...SO NOT EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO BE VERY OPPRESSIVE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDS PREVAILING ATTM. TSRA DVLPMNT WL BE IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IN IMPACT AT A TERMINAL A BIT MORE
UNCERTAIN. AM USING VCTS TO COVER THRU EVENING PUSH...AND WL INCL
A TEMPO FOR SPECIFICS ONCE ITS MORE CERTAIN A TERMINAL WL BE
DIRECTLY AFFECTED. POTL FOR WINDS GUSTS 40-50 KT IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS.

BELIEVE OVERALL INTENSITY WL DECLINE OVNGT...BUT SUSPECT THERE WL
BE SOME ACTIVITY. FLGT RESTRICTIONS WL THEREFORE REMAIN PSBL...
BUT MORE LKLY MVFR. HWVR...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH IN STORM EVOLUTION.

TSRA CVRG LOOKING MUCH LWR ON WED...AS TROF WL BE EAST OF
TERMINALS. A WEAK CDFNT WL BE DROPPING SWD IN THE AFTN-EVNG. ITS
ENTIRELY PSBL THAT THERE WL BE NO TSRA AT ALL. TAFS VFR W/ CIGS
BKN-OVC050-060.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE
REGION

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH EXTENDED IS POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH SUB-VFR CONDS POSSIBLE NEAR TSTMS. VFR
CONDS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
S/SE CHANNELING OCCURING OVER THE WATERS ATTM. SCA REMAINS IN
EFFECT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG WIND GUSTS. GRADIENT WINDS WILL DIMINSH
OVERNIGHT. SW FLOW THROUGH WED AROUND 10 KT...ALTHOUGH MAY BE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER TOWARD TANGIER SOUND. LOWER CHANCE OF STORMS
THROUGH WED.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND MAY CAUSE
REDUCED VSBYS.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...THOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS FRONT WILL BE NEAR AREA
EACH DAY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EACH DAY...WHICH
COULD IMPACT MARINE CONCERNS

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LVLS RUNNING ABT A FOOT ABV ASTRO NORMS. THE LOWER OF THE
TWO HIGH TIDES ROLLING IN NOW...WHICH WL KEEP LEVELS BELOW ADVY
CRITERIA. HWVR...ISSUES WUD RESULT FROM THE NEXT TIDE...MIDNGT TO
NOON. TOO SOON TO ISSUE ADVY ATTM...BUT ONE MAY BE REQD BEFORE
EVNG OVER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ531>534-
     537-539>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     535-536-538.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...HTS/HAS/MSE
MARINE...HTS/HAS/MSE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 302233
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
633 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
LATE ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN STALL ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
THE STALLED FRONT WILL LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HV CANCELLED SEVERE TSTM WATCHES FOR EVERYWHERE EAST OF THE BLUE
RDIGE XCPT FOR CALVERT AND STM ARYS CNTYS...AS WELL AS THE NRN
SHEN VALLEY/MRB-HGR AREA. THERES A LEE TROF THAT STILL MAY TRIGGER
A STORM OR TWO. THAT ACCOUNTS FOR THE ERN AREA. TO THE
WEST...THERES A DYING COMPLEX OF TSRA. WE DONT WANT TO DROP A
WATCH PREMATURELY TIL WERE CERTAIN WHAT ITS EVOLUTION WL BE.

THE CMPLX LKLY WL AFFECT THE CWFA THIS EVNG...PERHAPS INTO THE
OVNGT HRS. WHILE THERE SHOULD BE AN OVERALL EASTWARD PROGRESSION
AND DIURNAL WEAKENING OF ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...MODELS MAINTAIN
ELEVATED INSTBY OVERNIGHT AND DECENT SHEAR TNGT. MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING TOWARD DAYBREAK. THEREFORE SOME SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MIN TEMPS IN
THE LOWER/MID 60S WEST AND UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S EAST.

THE TROF WL EMERGE OVER THE ERN SHORE BY WED MRNG. A CDFNT WL BE
APPROACHING...ATTENDENT FM LOPRES THAT WL BE TRACKING ACRS QUEBEC
BY THAT TIME. HWVR...THE CDFNT LOOKS QUITE WEAK...AND AM
STRUGGLING TO FIND FORCING MECHANISMS. AMS WL STILL BE QUITE MOIST
BUT NOT THAT UNSTBL. MID LVL LAPSE RATES WL BE DECENT. WL HOLD
ONTO LOW END CHC POPS...HIER THAN MAV/MET...AND CONT TIL SUNSET.

AM NOT MAKING ANY SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES TO TEMPS ATTM. WL STILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR TMRW...SO TEMPS WL BE SLGTLY MUGGY WITH HIGHS
MID-UPR 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THURSDAY MORNING WHILE A COLD FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
HIGHLANDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FCST MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF
SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT. HEAVY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS ENHANCED LIFT
OCCURS IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A UPPER LEVEL JET. DUE TO THE TIME
OF DAY AND LACK OF INSTABILITY ALOFT...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN STORY THROUGH THE EXTENDED IS CONT CHCS FOR UNSETTLED WX...AS
STUBBORN FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR/OVER OUR AREA. THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO
FRONTAL LOCATION THROUGH THE EXTENDED. AS SUCH...IT IS DIFFICULT
DETERMINE THE SPATIOTEMPORAL EXTENT OF ANY ACTIVITY AND DETERMINE
CONVECTIVE VS SHOWER CHCS.

MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WHAT WILL THE WX BE LIKE ON SAT...FOR NOW
HAVE KEPT CHC POPS AND THUNDER...THOUGH THERE IS CERTAINLY BUST
POTENTIAL WITH THIS...AS FRONT COULD BE FAR ENOUGH TO OUR
SOUTH...WHICH WOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY (ELEVATED).

AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...TEMPS PROGGED TO REMAIN AOB CLIMO NORMS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD. DEWPOINTS ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 70F...SO NOT EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO BE VERY OPPRESSIVE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDS PREVAILING ATTM. TSRA DVLPMNT WL BE IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IN IMPACT AT A TERMINAL A BIT MORE
UNCERTAIN. AM USING VCTS TO COVER THRU EVENING PUSH...AND WL INCL
A TEMPO FOR SPECIFICS ONCE ITS MORE CERTAIN A TERMINAL WL BE
DIRECTLY AFFECTED. POTL FOR WINDS GUSTS 40-50 KT IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS.

BELIEVE OVERALL INTENSITY WL DECLINE OVNGT...BUT SUSPECT THERE WL
BE SOME ACTIVITY. FLGT RESTRICTIONS WL THEREFORE REMAIN PSBL...
BUT MORE LKLY MVFR. HWVR...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH IN STORM EVOLUTION.

TSRA CVRG LOOKING MUCH LWR ON WED...AS TROF WL BE EAST OF
TERMINALS. A WEAK CDFNT WL BE DROPPING SWD IN THE AFTN-EVNG. ITS
ENTIRELY PSBL THAT THERE WL BE NO TSRA AT ALL. TAFS VFR W/ CIGS
BKN-OVC050-060.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE
REGION

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH EXTENDED IS POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH SUB-VFR CONDS POSSIBLE NEAR TSTMS. VFR
CONDS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
S/SE CHANNELING OCCURING OVER THE WATERS ATTM. SCA REMAINS IN
EFFECT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG WIND GUSTS. GRADIENT WINDS WILL DIMINSH
OVERNIGHT. SW FLOW THROUGH WED AROUND 10 KT...ALTHOUGH MAY BE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER TOWARD TANGIER SOUND. LOWER CHANCE OF STORMS
THROUGH WED.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND MAY CAUSE
REDUCED VSBYS.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...THOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS FRONT WILL BE NEAR AREA
EACH DAY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EACH DAY...WHICH
COULD IMPACT MARINE CONCERNS

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LVLS RUNNING ABT A FOOT ABV ASTRO NORMS. THE LOWER OF THE
TWO HIGH TIDES ROLLING IN NOW...WHICH WL KEEP LEVELS BELOW ADVY
CRITERIA. HWVR...ISSUES WUD RESULT FROM THE NEXT TIDE...MIDNGT TO
NOON. TOO SOON TO ISSUE ADVY ATTM...BUT ONE MAY BE REQD BEFORE
EVNG OVER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ531>534-
     537-539>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     535-536-538.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...HTS/HAS/MSE
MARINE...HTS/HAS/MSE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 302233
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
633 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
LATE ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN STALL ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
THE STALLED FRONT WILL LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HV CANCELLED SEVERE TSTM WATCHES FOR EVERYWHERE EAST OF THE BLUE
RDIGE XCPT FOR CALVERT AND STM ARYS CNTYS...AS WELL AS THE NRN
SHEN VALLEY/MRB-HGR AREA. THERES A LEE TROF THAT STILL MAY TRIGGER
A STORM OR TWO. THAT ACCOUNTS FOR THE ERN AREA. TO THE
WEST...THERES A DYING COMPLEX OF TSRA. WE DONT WANT TO DROP A
WATCH PREMATURELY TIL WERE CERTAIN WHAT ITS EVOLUTION WL BE.

THE CMPLX LKLY WL AFFECT THE CWFA THIS EVNG...PERHAPS INTO THE
OVNGT HRS. WHILE THERE SHOULD BE AN OVERALL EASTWARD PROGRESSION
AND DIURNAL WEAKENING OF ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...MODELS MAINTAIN
ELEVATED INSTBY OVERNIGHT AND DECENT SHEAR TNGT. MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING TOWARD DAYBREAK. THEREFORE SOME SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MIN TEMPS IN
THE LOWER/MID 60S WEST AND UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S EAST.

THE TROF WL EMERGE OVER THE ERN SHORE BY WED MRNG. A CDFNT WL BE
APPROACHING...ATTENDENT FM LOPRES THAT WL BE TRACKING ACRS QUEBEC
BY THAT TIME. HWVR...THE CDFNT LOOKS QUITE WEAK...AND AM
STRUGGLING TO FIND FORCING MECHANISMS. AMS WL STILL BE QUITE MOIST
BUT NOT THAT UNSTBL. MID LVL LAPSE RATES WL BE DECENT. WL HOLD
ONTO LOW END CHC POPS...HIER THAN MAV/MET...AND CONT TIL SUNSET.

AM NOT MAKING ANY SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES TO TEMPS ATTM. WL STILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR TMRW...SO TEMPS WL BE SLGTLY MUGGY WITH HIGHS
MID-UPR 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THURSDAY MORNING WHILE A COLD FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
HIGHLANDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FCST MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF
SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT. HEAVY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS ENHANCED LIFT
OCCURS IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A UPPER LEVEL JET. DUE TO THE TIME
OF DAY AND LACK OF INSTABILITY ALOFT...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN STORY THROUGH THE EXTENDED IS CONT CHCS FOR UNSETTLED WX...AS
STUBBORN FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR/OVER OUR AREA. THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO
FRONTAL LOCATION THROUGH THE EXTENDED. AS SUCH...IT IS DIFFICULT
DETERMINE THE SPATIOTEMPORAL EXTENT OF ANY ACTIVITY AND DETERMINE
CONVECTIVE VS SHOWER CHCS.

MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WHAT WILL THE WX BE LIKE ON SAT...FOR NOW
HAVE KEPT CHC POPS AND THUNDER...THOUGH THERE IS CERTAINLY BUST
POTENTIAL WITH THIS...AS FRONT COULD BE FAR ENOUGH TO OUR
SOUTH...WHICH WOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY (ELEVATED).

AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...TEMPS PROGGED TO REMAIN AOB CLIMO NORMS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD. DEWPOINTS ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 70F...SO NOT EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO BE VERY OPPRESSIVE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDS PREVAILING ATTM. TSRA DVLPMNT WL BE IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IN IMPACT AT A TERMINAL A BIT MORE
UNCERTAIN. AM USING VCTS TO COVER THRU EVENING PUSH...AND WL INCL
A TEMPO FOR SPECIFICS ONCE ITS MORE CERTAIN A TERMINAL WL BE
DIRECTLY AFFECTED. POTL FOR WINDS GUSTS 40-50 KT IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS.

BELIEVE OVERALL INTENSITY WL DECLINE OVNGT...BUT SUSPECT THERE WL
BE SOME ACTIVITY. FLGT RESTRICTIONS WL THEREFORE REMAIN PSBL...
BUT MORE LKLY MVFR. HWVR...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH IN STORM EVOLUTION.

TSRA CVRG LOOKING MUCH LWR ON WED...AS TROF WL BE EAST OF
TERMINALS. A WEAK CDFNT WL BE DROPPING SWD IN THE AFTN-EVNG. ITS
ENTIRELY PSBL THAT THERE WL BE NO TSRA AT ALL. TAFS VFR W/ CIGS
BKN-OVC050-060.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE
REGION

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH EXTENDED IS POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH SUB-VFR CONDS POSSIBLE NEAR TSTMS. VFR
CONDS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
S/SE CHANNELING OCCURING OVER THE WATERS ATTM. SCA REMAINS IN
EFFECT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG WIND GUSTS. GRADIENT WINDS WILL DIMINSH
OVERNIGHT. SW FLOW THROUGH WED AROUND 10 KT...ALTHOUGH MAY BE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER TOWARD TANGIER SOUND. LOWER CHANCE OF STORMS
THROUGH WED.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND MAY CAUSE
REDUCED VSBYS.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...THOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS FRONT WILL BE NEAR AREA
EACH DAY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EACH DAY...WHICH
COULD IMPACT MARINE CONCERNS

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LVLS RUNNING ABT A FOOT ABV ASTRO NORMS. THE LOWER OF THE
TWO HIGH TIDES ROLLING IN NOW...WHICH WL KEEP LEVELS BELOW ADVY
CRITERIA. HWVR...ISSUES WUD RESULT FROM THE NEXT TIDE...MIDNGT TO
NOON. TOO SOON TO ISSUE ADVY ATTM...BUT ONE MAY BE REQD BEFORE
EVNG OVER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ531>534-
     537-539>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     535-536-538.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...HTS/HAS/MSE
MARINE...HTS/HAS/MSE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS




000
FXUS61 KPHI 302221
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
621 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE EAST THROUGH MID WEEK. AS
IT DOES SO, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO OUR REGION TOMORROW, FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY. THAT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL
JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO CONTINUE AS IS THOUGH WANTED TO CANCEL.
EXPECT STORMS TO REFIRE THIS EVENING AROUND 01Z ALONG THE WARM
FRONT WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE THE FOCUS. THIS PERMITS POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED STORMS FROM I95 SEWD IN THE 01Z-06Z TIME FRAME.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT THRU 3 AM WED FOR PORTIONS
OF ERN PA AND NORTHERN NJ...WHERE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO REFORM
AND TRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUALLY IMPROVING WEATHER...AS BOTH POPS AND SKY COVER DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MAX TEMPS AOA AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM IN ORDER TO FOCUS ON ONGOING SEVERE
THREAT.

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THERE WAS ABOUT A 50/50 SPLIT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND WRF- NMMB INITIALIZATION AT 500MB. FARTHER
DOWNWARD, THE WRF- NMMB LOOKED BETTER. DP/DTING THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE LOOKS STRONGER, WHILE THE ERN NOAM TROF IS BROADER. WHILE
THE MODELS AGREE ON A CONTINUATION OF THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN, THEY VARY ON DETAILS AND CONTINUE TO FIND THEMSELVES IN
ODD POSITIONS WITH THE NORMALLY SLOWER ECMWF AND WRF-NMMB
CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. AS PER
PMDHMD WE ARE LEANING AWAY FROM THESE FASTER RESULTS AND GOING
MORE TOWARD CONTINUITY. REGARDLESS WITH THE CURRENT PATTERN
REMAINING IN PLACE IT IS TOUGH TO CONFIDENTLY PREDICT MUCH
PROLONGED DRY WEATHER.

THE START OF THE LONG TERM DOES HAVE DECENT MODELING CONSENSUS.
WHILE THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA,
SHORT WAVES INTERACTING WITH THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD RE-GENERATE
MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS RATHER QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLD
POCKET ALOFT COUPLED WITH NEAR NEUTRAL LOWER LEVEL THERMAL
FIELDS KEEP PREDICTED TOTAL TOTALS AT OR AROUND 50C.
APPROPRIATELY MIXED LAYER CAPES (ABOVE 1000J IN DELMARVA) PEAK
DURING THE MORNING AND DECREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS
THE COLD POCKET GETS SHEARED. HIGHEST POPS ARE IN THE MORNING WITH
A TRAIL OFF AS THE DAY CONTINUES. STRONGER SHEAR AND CAPE ARE
DECOUPLED AND (CAPE) MAY NOT RAMP UP FAST ENOUGH GIVEN TIMING OF
FEATURES FOR SEVERE WHICH LOOKS BETTER NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA. AIR
MASS SUPPORTIVE OF MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MAX TEMPS MOST OF OUR CWA.

GIVEN THE BRIEF FLATTENING OF THE TROF ALOFT, WE DID NOT CARRY
MUCH OF A CHANCE OF THUNDER INTO THE NIGHT AND NO POPS ANYWHERE
OVERNIGHT. STAT GUIDANCE MINS LOOK REASONABLE.

ON THURSDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF
OUR CWA. FROM HERE THE TIMING OF IMPULSES ON THE FRONT START TO
DIVERGE. REGARDLESS, THE BOUNDARY IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO ACT AS A
TRIGGER WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE (THUS HIGHER POPS) IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF UR CWA. MIXED LAYER CAPES IN DELMARVA REACH THE LOWER
1000S, BUT ARE RELATIVELY LOW FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. THUNDER
CHANCES MAY BE OVERSTATED. THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST A 2-3F DROP OFF
IN MAX TEMPS FROM WED.

NOW THE MODELS REALLY START DIVERGING FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
WITH THE GFS AND CAN GGEM EMPHASIZING FRIDAY WITH THE ECMWF AND
WRF THURSDAY NIGHT. WHERE MODELS AGREE IS THAT INSTABILITY IN OUR
CWA IS MODEST AND THERE ARE HIGHER CHANCES SOUTH THAN NORTH.
TIMING RESOLUTION IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO FORECAST DRY WEATHER FOR
EITHER PERIOD. WE DID STEER HIGHER POPS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
GEFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE OP GFS.

IT DOES NOT BECOME MUCH CLEARER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH THE ECMWF
FORECASTING A DRY DAY AND THE CAN GGEM HAVING A TOTAL WASHOUT. MOST
MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING A SFC LOW ON THE LEVEL OF LAST SATURDAY,
SO FOR NOW WE KEPT THE FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY CLOSE TO
CONTINUITY AND SUMMER CLIMO AND NOT SOUND LIKE A TOTAL LOSS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY REMAIN CLOSE TO CONTINUITY. WITH BOTH THE GFS AND EC
DRY WE HAVE SUNDAY PREDICTED TO BE THE BETTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND
DAYS AND KEPT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR MONDAY AS THE
WARM FRONT IS PREDICTED TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. PATCHES CIGS NEAR 2000
FT ALONG THE NJ COAST. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO 30-35 KT IN IFR TSTMS
THROUGH 06Z. SE TO SSW FLOW NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. POSSIBLE DEVELOPING EXPANDING PATCHES IFR FOG/STRATUS
AFTER 06Z IF THE SHOWERS DISSIPATE. PLS SEE TAFS FOR DETAILS.

WEDNESDAY...VFR SCT AOA 5000 FT WITH CHANCE OF LEFTOVER SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTN HRS NJ/DE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR WITH ANY PCPN CHANCES DECREASING
QUICKLY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT SOME
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS DURING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
IMPACT OUTLOOKED TO BE GREATER FOR SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED MOST AREAS. MAY NEED TO ADD
SCA TO DE BAY AT 640 PM FOR THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEAS ON THE OCEAN MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN PRE FRONTAL SOUTHERLY FLOW, BUT THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS MIGHT
REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN
AVERAGE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
BASED ON OUR LOCAL FORECAST APPLICATION USING A 3 FOOT WAVES/8
SECOND PERIOD AND SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND 12 KNOTS, WE CONTINUE
WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR NEW JERSEY AND LOW A
LOW RISK FOR DELAWARE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE CHART BELOW SHOWS RAINFALL STATISTICS AT OUR FOUR BIG CLIMATE
SITES THRU 6/29. THE COLUMNS ARE BROKEN DOWN BY SITE, "POR" (HOW
FAR RECORDS DATE BACK), JUNE 2015 RAINFALL, NORMAL JUNE RAINFALL,
JUNE 2015 RAINFALL RANKING, AS WELL AS THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.

SITE    POR     JUNE    NORMAL    RANK   WETTEST

ILG     1894    12.46    3.50      2ND     13.66 (2013)
ACY     1874     8.04    2.81      2ND      8.45 (1920)
ABE     1922     7.02    3.86      6TH     10.51 (1938)
PHL     1872     7.23    3.08     10TH     10.56 (2013)

AT THIS TIME, IT HAS BEEN THE SECOND WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD IN
BOTH WILMINGTON AND ATLANTIC CITY. WITH ONLY TODAY LEFT IN THE
MONTH, CURRENT FORECASTS DO NOT FAVOR EITHER SITE BREAKING THEIR
ALL-TIME JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. HOWEVER, IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A HEAVY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO CLOSE THE GAP, WHICH IS 0.41 INCHES IN
ATLANTIC CITY AND 1.2 INCHES IN WILMINGTON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-101-103-105.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ001-007>009.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI
NEAR TERM...DRAG/FRANCK  622
SHORT TERM...FRANCK
LONG TERM...GIGI/JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK/GIGI 622
MARINE...DRAG/FRANCK/GIGI 622
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 302221
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
621 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE EAST THROUGH MID WEEK. AS
IT DOES SO, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO OUR REGION TOMORROW, FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY. THAT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL
JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO CONTINUE AS IS THOUGH WANTED TO CANCEL.
EXPECT STORMS TO REFIRE THIS EVENING AROUND 01Z ALONG THE WARM
FRONT WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE THE FOCUS. THIS PERMITS POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED STORMS FROM I95 SEWD IN THE 01Z-06Z TIME FRAME.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT THRU 3 AM WED FOR PORTIONS
OF ERN PA AND NORTHERN NJ...WHERE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO REFORM
AND TRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUALLY IMPROVING WEATHER...AS BOTH POPS AND SKY COVER DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MAX TEMPS AOA AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM IN ORDER TO FOCUS ON ONGOING SEVERE
THREAT.

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THERE WAS ABOUT A 50/50 SPLIT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND WRF- NMMB INITIALIZATION AT 500MB. FARTHER
DOWNWARD, THE WRF- NMMB LOOKED BETTER. DP/DTING THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE LOOKS STRONGER, WHILE THE ERN NOAM TROF IS BROADER. WHILE
THE MODELS AGREE ON A CONTINUATION OF THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN, THEY VARY ON DETAILS AND CONTINUE TO FIND THEMSELVES IN
ODD POSITIONS WITH THE NORMALLY SLOWER ECMWF AND WRF-NMMB
CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. AS PER
PMDHMD WE ARE LEANING AWAY FROM THESE FASTER RESULTS AND GOING
MORE TOWARD CONTINUITY. REGARDLESS WITH THE CURRENT PATTERN
REMAINING IN PLACE IT IS TOUGH TO CONFIDENTLY PREDICT MUCH
PROLONGED DRY WEATHER.

THE START OF THE LONG TERM DOES HAVE DECENT MODELING CONSENSUS.
WHILE THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA,
SHORT WAVES INTERACTING WITH THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD RE-GENERATE
MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS RATHER QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLD
POCKET ALOFT COUPLED WITH NEAR NEUTRAL LOWER LEVEL THERMAL
FIELDS KEEP PREDICTED TOTAL TOTALS AT OR AROUND 50C.
APPROPRIATELY MIXED LAYER CAPES (ABOVE 1000J IN DELMARVA) PEAK
DURING THE MORNING AND DECREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS
THE COLD POCKET GETS SHEARED. HIGHEST POPS ARE IN THE MORNING WITH
A TRAIL OFF AS THE DAY CONTINUES. STRONGER SHEAR AND CAPE ARE
DECOUPLED AND (CAPE) MAY NOT RAMP UP FAST ENOUGH GIVEN TIMING OF
FEATURES FOR SEVERE WHICH LOOKS BETTER NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA. AIR
MASS SUPPORTIVE OF MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MAX TEMPS MOST OF OUR CWA.

GIVEN THE BRIEF FLATTENING OF THE TROF ALOFT, WE DID NOT CARRY
MUCH OF A CHANCE OF THUNDER INTO THE NIGHT AND NO POPS ANYWHERE
OVERNIGHT. STAT GUIDANCE MINS LOOK REASONABLE.

ON THURSDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF
OUR CWA. FROM HERE THE TIMING OF IMPULSES ON THE FRONT START TO
DIVERGE. REGARDLESS, THE BOUNDARY IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO ACT AS A
TRIGGER WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE (THUS HIGHER POPS) IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF UR CWA. MIXED LAYER CAPES IN DELMARVA REACH THE LOWER
1000S, BUT ARE RELATIVELY LOW FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. THUNDER
CHANCES MAY BE OVERSTATED. THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST A 2-3F DROP OFF
IN MAX TEMPS FROM WED.

NOW THE MODELS REALLY START DIVERGING FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
WITH THE GFS AND CAN GGEM EMPHASIZING FRIDAY WITH THE ECMWF AND
WRF THURSDAY NIGHT. WHERE MODELS AGREE IS THAT INSTABILITY IN OUR
CWA IS MODEST AND THERE ARE HIGHER CHANCES SOUTH THAN NORTH.
TIMING RESOLUTION IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO FORECAST DRY WEATHER FOR
EITHER PERIOD. WE DID STEER HIGHER POPS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
GEFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE OP GFS.

IT DOES NOT BECOME MUCH CLEARER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH THE ECMWF
FORECASTING A DRY DAY AND THE CAN GGEM HAVING A TOTAL WASHOUT. MOST
MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING A SFC LOW ON THE LEVEL OF LAST SATURDAY,
SO FOR NOW WE KEPT THE FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY CLOSE TO
CONTINUITY AND SUMMER CLIMO AND NOT SOUND LIKE A TOTAL LOSS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY REMAIN CLOSE TO CONTINUITY. WITH BOTH THE GFS AND EC
DRY WE HAVE SUNDAY PREDICTED TO BE THE BETTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND
DAYS AND KEPT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR MONDAY AS THE
WARM FRONT IS PREDICTED TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. PATCHES CIGS NEAR 2000
FT ALONG THE NJ COAST. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO 30-35 KT IN IFR TSTMS
THROUGH 06Z. SE TO SSW FLOW NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. POSSIBLE DEVELOPING EXPANDING PATCHES IFR FOG/STRATUS
AFTER 06Z IF THE SHOWERS DISSIPATE. PLS SEE TAFS FOR DETAILS.

WEDNESDAY...VFR SCT AOA 5000 FT WITH CHANCE OF LEFTOVER SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTN HRS NJ/DE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR WITH ANY PCPN CHANCES DECREASING
QUICKLY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT SOME
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS DURING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
IMPACT OUTLOOKED TO BE GREATER FOR SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED MOST AREAS. MAY NEED TO ADD
SCA TO DE BAY AT 640 PM FOR THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEAS ON THE OCEAN MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN PRE FRONTAL SOUTHERLY FLOW, BUT THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS MIGHT
REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN
AVERAGE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
BASED ON OUR LOCAL FORECAST APPLICATION USING A 3 FOOT WAVES/8
SECOND PERIOD AND SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND 12 KNOTS, WE CONTINUE
WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR NEW JERSEY AND LOW A
LOW RISK FOR DELAWARE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE CHART BELOW SHOWS RAINFALL STATISTICS AT OUR FOUR BIG CLIMATE
SITES THRU 6/29. THE COLUMNS ARE BROKEN DOWN BY SITE, "POR" (HOW
FAR RECORDS DATE BACK), JUNE 2015 RAINFALL, NORMAL JUNE RAINFALL,
JUNE 2015 RAINFALL RANKING, AS WELL AS THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.

SITE    POR     JUNE    NORMAL    RANK   WETTEST

ILG     1894    12.46    3.50      2ND     13.66 (2013)
ACY     1874     8.04    2.81      2ND      8.45 (1920)
ABE     1922     7.02    3.86      6TH     10.51 (1938)
PHL     1872     7.23    3.08     10TH     10.56 (2013)

AT THIS TIME, IT HAS BEEN THE SECOND WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD IN
BOTH WILMINGTON AND ATLANTIC CITY. WITH ONLY TODAY LEFT IN THE
MONTH, CURRENT FORECASTS DO NOT FAVOR EITHER SITE BREAKING THEIR
ALL-TIME JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. HOWEVER, IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A HEAVY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO CLOSE THE GAP, WHICH IS 0.41 INCHES IN
ATLANTIC CITY AND 1.2 INCHES IN WILMINGTON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-101-103-105.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ001-007>009.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI
NEAR TERM...DRAG/FRANCK  622
SHORT TERM...FRANCK
LONG TERM...GIGI/JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK/GIGI 622
MARINE...DRAG/FRANCK/GIGI 622
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 302211
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
611 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND AND DRIER
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE TO CLEAR PART OF SEVERE WATCH FROM INTO WRN PA AND NRN WV.
MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXITING PITTSBURGH METRO AND WILL
BE WEAKENING NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

CURRENT TIMING HAS THE BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE
REGION BY 8PM...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING. WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL ENSUE OVERNIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE
MIXING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEW MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE AREA SAVE FOR THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND THE RIDGES MAY REMAIN DRY...AS SUBSIDENCE
AND WARMING TAKES PLACE ALOFT AND MIXING DRIES OUT THE SURFACE.
THIS MAY TAKE MOST OF THE DAY THOUGH...SO SOME SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY
MAY BE IN PLACE PER THE LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS.

IN ADDITION...THE 12Z GUIDANCE WANTS TO SHUNT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE AND A SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. HAVE PUSHED
CHANCE POPS SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THESE
TRENDS. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN WV THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDING
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY FROM KENTUCKY TO WEST VIRGINIA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STAY JUST BELOW OR NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE NOT NEEDED TO MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT COMPARED TO
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A
BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME DRY DAYS. HARD TO PINPOINT ANY
PARTICULAR POINT WHEN RAIN IS LIKELY...BUT SO FAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT SHIFT MUCH DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND
LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK EAST ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...BRINGING MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. VFR IS EXPECTED BEHIND
THIS LINE UNTIL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING IS EXPECTED TO BRING
MVFR/ISOLATED IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UNDER BUILDING RIDGING.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WILL BE WITH
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 302211
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
611 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND AND DRIER
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE TO CLEAR PART OF SEVERE WATCH FROM INTO WRN PA AND NRN WV.
MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXITING PITTSBURGH METRO AND WILL
BE WEAKENING NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

CURRENT TIMING HAS THE BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE
REGION BY 8PM...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING. WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL ENSUE OVERNIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE
MIXING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEW MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE AREA SAVE FOR THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND THE RIDGES MAY REMAIN DRY...AS SUBSIDENCE
AND WARMING TAKES PLACE ALOFT AND MIXING DRIES OUT THE SURFACE.
THIS MAY TAKE MOST OF THE DAY THOUGH...SO SOME SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY
MAY BE IN PLACE PER THE LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS.

IN ADDITION...THE 12Z GUIDANCE WANTS TO SHUNT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE AND A SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. HAVE PUSHED
CHANCE POPS SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THESE
TRENDS. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN WV THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDING
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY FROM KENTUCKY TO WEST VIRGINIA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STAY JUST BELOW OR NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE NOT NEEDED TO MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT COMPARED TO
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A
BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME DRY DAYS. HARD TO PINPOINT ANY
PARTICULAR POINT WHEN RAIN IS LIKELY...BUT SO FAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT SHIFT MUCH DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND
LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK EAST ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...BRINGING MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. VFR IS EXPECTED BEHIND
THIS LINE UNTIL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING IS EXPECTED TO BRING
MVFR/ISOLATED IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UNDER BUILDING RIDGING.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WILL BE WITH
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 302211
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
611 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND AND DRIER
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE TO CLEAR PART OF SEVERE WATCH FROM INTO WRN PA AND NRN WV.
MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXITING PITTSBURGH METRO AND WILL
BE WEAKENING NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

CURRENT TIMING HAS THE BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE
REGION BY 8PM...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING. WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL ENSUE OVERNIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE
MIXING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEW MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE AREA SAVE FOR THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND THE RIDGES MAY REMAIN DRY...AS SUBSIDENCE
AND WARMING TAKES PLACE ALOFT AND MIXING DRIES OUT THE SURFACE.
THIS MAY TAKE MOST OF THE DAY THOUGH...SO SOME SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY
MAY BE IN PLACE PER THE LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS.

IN ADDITION...THE 12Z GUIDANCE WANTS TO SHUNT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE AND A SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. HAVE PUSHED
CHANCE POPS SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THESE
TRENDS. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN WV THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDING
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY FROM KENTUCKY TO WEST VIRGINIA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STAY JUST BELOW OR NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE NOT NEEDED TO MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT COMPARED TO
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A
BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME DRY DAYS. HARD TO PINPOINT ANY
PARTICULAR POINT WHEN RAIN IS LIKELY...BUT SO FAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT SHIFT MUCH DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND
LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK EAST ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...BRINGING MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. VFR IS EXPECTED BEHIND
THIS LINE UNTIL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING IS EXPECTED TO BRING
MVFR/ISOLATED IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UNDER BUILDING RIDGING.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WILL BE WITH
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 302211
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
611 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND AND DRIER
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE TO CLEAR PART OF SEVERE WATCH FROM INTO WRN PA AND NRN WV.
MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXITING PITTSBURGH METRO AND WILL
BE WEAKENING NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

CURRENT TIMING HAS THE BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE
REGION BY 8PM...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING. WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL ENSUE OVERNIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE
MIXING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEW MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE AREA SAVE FOR THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND THE RIDGES MAY REMAIN DRY...AS SUBSIDENCE
AND WARMING TAKES PLACE ALOFT AND MIXING DRIES OUT THE SURFACE.
THIS MAY TAKE MOST OF THE DAY THOUGH...SO SOME SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY
MAY BE IN PLACE PER THE LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS.

IN ADDITION...THE 12Z GUIDANCE WANTS TO SHUNT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE AND A SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. HAVE PUSHED
CHANCE POPS SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THESE
TRENDS. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN WV THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDING
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY FROM KENTUCKY TO WEST VIRGINIA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STAY JUST BELOW OR NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE NOT NEEDED TO MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT COMPARED TO
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A
BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME DRY DAYS. HARD TO PINPOINT ANY
PARTICULAR POINT WHEN RAIN IS LIKELY...BUT SO FAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT SHIFT MUCH DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND
LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK EAST ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...BRINGING MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. VFR IS EXPECTED BEHIND
THIS LINE UNTIL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING IS EXPECTED TO BRING
MVFR/ISOLATED IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UNDER BUILDING RIDGING.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WILL BE WITH
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 302114
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
514 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND AND DRIER
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
EARLY UPDATE TO CLEAR PART OF SEVER WATCH FROM EASTERN OHIO. NO
OTHER CHANGES.

CURRENT TIMING HAS THE BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE
REGION BY 8PM...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING. WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL ENSUE OVERNIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE
MIXING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEW MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE AREA SAVE FOR THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND THE RIDGES MAY REMAIN DRY...AS SUBSIDENCE
AND WARMING TAKES PLACE ALOFT AND MIXING DRIES OUT THE SURFACE.
THIS MAY TAKE MOST OF THE DAY THOUGH...SO SOME SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY
MAY BE IN PLACE PER THE LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS.

IN ADDITION...THE 12Z GUIDANCE WANTS TO SHUNT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE AND A SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. HAVE PUSHED
CHANCE POPS SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THESE
TRENDS. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN WV THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDING
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY FROM KENTUCKY TO WEST VIRGINIA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STAY JUST BELOW OR NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE NOT NEEDED TO MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT COMPARED TO
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A
BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME DRY DAYS. HARD TO PINPOINT ANY
PARTICULAR POINT WHEN RAIN IS LIKELY...BUT SO FAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT SHIFT MUCH DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND
LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK EAST ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...BRINGING MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. VFR IS EXPECTED BEHIND
THIS LINE UNTIL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING IS EXPECTED TO BRING
MVFR/ISOLATED IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UNDER BUILDING RIDGING.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WILL BE WITH
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 302114
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
514 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND AND DRIER
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
EARLY UPDATE TO CLEAR PART OF SEVER WATCH FROM EASTERN OHIO. NO
OTHER CHANGES.

CURRENT TIMING HAS THE BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE
REGION BY 8PM...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING. WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL ENSUE OVERNIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE
MIXING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEW MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE AREA SAVE FOR THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND THE RIDGES MAY REMAIN DRY...AS SUBSIDENCE
AND WARMING TAKES PLACE ALOFT AND MIXING DRIES OUT THE SURFACE.
THIS MAY TAKE MOST OF THE DAY THOUGH...SO SOME SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY
MAY BE IN PLACE PER THE LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS.

IN ADDITION...THE 12Z GUIDANCE WANTS TO SHUNT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE AND A SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. HAVE PUSHED
CHANCE POPS SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THESE
TRENDS. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN WV THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDING
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY FROM KENTUCKY TO WEST VIRGINIA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STAY JUST BELOW OR NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE NOT NEEDED TO MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT COMPARED TO
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A
BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME DRY DAYS. HARD TO PINPOINT ANY
PARTICULAR POINT WHEN RAIN IS LIKELY...BUT SO FAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT SHIFT MUCH DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND
LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK EAST ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...BRINGING MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. VFR IS EXPECTED BEHIND
THIS LINE UNTIL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING IS EXPECTED TO BRING
MVFR/ISOLATED IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UNDER BUILDING RIDGING.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WILL BE WITH
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 302048
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
448 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE
FRONT LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 378 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT FOR
THE ERN VA PIEDMONT AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VA. ALSO FOR
DORCHESTER COUNTY MD AND NORTHAMPTON COUNTY NC.

LATEST GOES VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTS EXPANDING CU FIELD OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG A LINE FROM SOUTH HILL TO RICHMOND AND THE NORTHERN
NECK IN VIC OF THE LEE/THERMAL TROUGH. BEGINNING TO SEE LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY INCREASING IN THESE CELLS...BUT THEY WILL CONTINUE TO
FIGHT THE WARM AIR ALOFT AND MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE IN THIS REGION THRU THE AFTERNOON...AS
LOCATIONS TO THE EAST FIGHT THE RIDGE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL WRN
ATLANTIC. SPC MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE ALONG
WITH 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS DUE TO STRONG SHEAR IN A REGION OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND A WELL MIXED BL. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO
EXPECTED. HAVE MAINTAINED 30-40 POPS THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION
REMAINS SCATTERED.

ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING/WEAKENING FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE THRU
THE AFTERNOON. BETTER HEIGHT FALLS/UVM ALSO ARRIVE THIS EVENING.
PV ANOMALY AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT PROGGED TO DEVELOP A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE THERMAL TROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS PROGGED TO
LIFTS INTO THE PIEDMONT FROM THE WEST...SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. CONTINUED INFLUENCE FROM THE WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE
EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS ACTIVITY AS IT REACHES THE COAST DUE TO WARM
TEMPS ALOFT. LLJ ALSO KICKS IN THIS EVENING...ADVECTING BETTER
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. DAMAGING WIND THREAT CONTINUES INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

POPS TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING LATE
(ESPECIALLY W). MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING ERN VA. LOW TONIGHT
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE REGION WEDS
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXITS THE NE COAST. OVERALL...THERE IS LITTLE
FORCING IN DEEP LAYER WLY FLOW. SFC TROUGH ALSO LOCATES ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. WILL RETAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOW END CHANCE POPS CLOSER TO THE
COAST WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC TROUGH.
HIGHS FORECAST IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDS NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S.

THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN NC AS ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER UPPER WAVE LOCATES OVER THE
MID MS VALLEY. 20-30 POPS THURS MORNING INCREASE TO 40-50 POPS
THURS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND CONTINUING THRU THE OVERNIGHT.
PWATS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 2+ INCHES THURS NIGHT IN DEEP LAYER
SWLY FLOW. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE IN CONCERT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY
LIFTING ALONG THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL THURS NIGHT. DUE TO THE RECENT RAINFALL (UP TO 600
PCT OF NORMAL THIS PAST WEEK)...MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AND HAS
BEEN HEADLINED IN THE HWO. 72 HR RAINFALL TOTALS (INCLUDING TODAY)
RANGE FROM OVER AN INCH FROM THE PIEDMONT INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH NEAR THE COAST. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS THURS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S. LOWS THURS NIGHT
IN THE MID- UPPER 60S NORTH TO LOW 70S SOUTH.

BOUNDARY AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION FRI AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID MS VALLEY LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL
MAINTAIN SOLID CHANCE POPS FRI AS SEVERAL WAVES CONTINUE TO SPREAD
OVER THE REGION. HIGHS FRI IN THE LOW-MID 80S (UPPER 70S FAR NW)
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY-CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPSTREAM BLOCKING PATTERN RESULTS IN LITTLE MOVEMENT OF OVERALL
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THRU THE HOLIDAY WKEND / MED RANGE PERIOD.

MODELS STALL WAVY FRONTAL BNDRY ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC REGION SAT.
GFS WANTS TO PUSH THIS BNDRY INTO NORTH CAROLINA SUN AS WEAK HIGH
PRS BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WHILE ECMWF KEEPS THE
BNDRY NEARLY STNRY ACROSS THE RGN. THE BNDRY PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRNT MONDAY WITH A TROF LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
THUS LOOK FOR CHC POPS EACH DAY AS TIMING OF ANY ONE DISTURBANCE
RATHER PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT.

HIGHS SAT / SUN IN THE M-U80S...85-90 MON / TUE. LOWS U60S-M70S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. BEGINNING TO NOTICE SOME CU/SC PUSHING IN FROM THE W/SW
ALONG A WEAK SFC TROUGH. SHRAS/TSTMS ARE PSBL THIS AFTN/EVENG
ESPECIALLY AT RIC/SBY...BUT CHANCE IS TOO LO TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS ATTM. WINDS WILL REMAIN S-SW AND COULD SEE AN OCCASIONAL GUST
UP TO ~20 KT THROUGH LATE AFTN. CURRENTLY NOTING NARROW LINE OF
CONVECTION LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. COULD SEE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS TONIGHT AFTER 23Z IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS ACTIVITY, AND AS UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES ACROSS TONIGHT.
BEST CHANCE WILL BE MAINLY TO THE W OF KRIC. HOWEVER, FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL IMPACT ANY ONE
TERMINAL AND WITH ANY CONVECTION STILL AT LEAST 6 HRS OFF, HV HELD
OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW. OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS, EXPECT SOME LOWER
CIGS MOVING IN OVERNIGHT ON SW FLOW, AND DROPPED DOWN TO LOW END
VFR NEAR MVFR CATEGORY OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...A FRNTAL SYSTM SLOWLY APPROACHES FM THE W DURING THE
REST OF THE WEEK. MAINLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS EACH DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES ON THU AND FRI WITH THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY, BUT
THE PERIOD OF MOST WIDESPREAD RESTRICTION AND CHCS FOR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS COME THURSDAY AFTN/FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL KEEP CRNT SCA HEADLINES UP FOR THE CHES BAY TONIGHT AS PRS
GRDNT TIGHTENS ENOUGH FOR MARGINAL (15-20 KT) WNDS. GRDNT RELAXES
WED MORNING KEEPING A WEAKER SLY/SWLY FLOW (10-15 KT) THRU WED NIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT. THE FRNT DROPS INTO THE AREA FM
THE NW ON THU...WITH WINDS BCMG LIGHT AND VRBL AS THE FRNT STALLS
THE LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THU NIGHT AND FRI. WAVES AVGG
1-2 FT AND SEAS AVGG 2-4 FT THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/SAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...MAS/MAM
MARINE...MPR



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 302043
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
443 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND AND DRIER
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WHILE MUCH OF THE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE OVER OHIO HAS
BEEN SUPPRESSED...THUNDERSTORMS TIED TO THE MCV ARE A BIT MORE
ORGANIZED WITH SUPPORT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND COOLING
ALOFT. MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO CONTINUE WITH MODEST CAPE
AND SHEAR AS THE STORMS HEAD INTO PA. WIND THREAT WILL BE GREATEST
WHERE LAPSE RATES ARE THE STEEPEST.

CURRENT TIMING HAS THE BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE
REGION BY 8PM...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING. WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL ENSUE OVERNIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE
MIXING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEW MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE AREA SAVE FOR THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND THE RIDGES MAY REMAIN DRY...AS SUBSIDENCE
AND WARMING TAKES PLACE ALOFT AND MIXING DRIES OUT THE SURFACE.
THIS MAY TAKE MOST OF THE DAY THOUGH...SO SOME SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY
MAY BE IN PLACE PER THE LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS.

IN ADDITION...THE 12Z GUIDANCE WANTS TO SHUNT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE AND A SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. HAVE PUSHED
CHANCE POPS SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THESE
TRENDS. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN WV THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDING
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY FROM KENTUCKY TO WEST VIRGINIA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STAY JUST BELOW OR NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE NOT NEEDED TO MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT COMPARED TO
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A
BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME DRY DAYS. HARD TO PINPOINT ANY
PARTICULAR POINT WHEN RAIN IS LIKELY...BUT SO FAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT SHIFT MUCH DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND
LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THE TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE A THUNDERSTORM
AS INSTABILITY IS INCREASING WITH PEAKS OF SUNSHINE. THUS...HAVE
ADDED TSRA TEMPO GROUPS WITH PRIMARILY MVFR VSBY/CIG RESTRICTIONS.
WIND GUSTS TO 20KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER INTO THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PIVOTS TO THE EAST. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT TO FULLY DECOUPLE
OVERNIGHT...RAINFALL WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING THE CHANCE FOR MVFR AND
IFR RESTRICTIONS IN STRATUS AND FOG...ESPECIALLY OVER KFKL AND
KDUJ THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COOL NW FLOW MAY BRING OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD FOR MOST OF THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS
WILL BE WITH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 302043
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
443 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND AND DRIER
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WHILE MUCH OF THE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE OVER OHIO HAS
BEEN SUPPRESSED...THUNDERSTORMS TIED TO THE MCV ARE A BIT MORE
ORGANIZED WITH SUPPORT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND COOLING
ALOFT. MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO CONTINUE WITH MODEST CAPE
AND SHEAR AS THE STORMS HEAD INTO PA. WIND THREAT WILL BE GREATEST
WHERE LAPSE RATES ARE THE STEEPEST.

CURRENT TIMING HAS THE BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE
REGION BY 8PM...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING. WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL ENSUE OVERNIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE
MIXING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEW MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE AREA SAVE FOR THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND THE RIDGES MAY REMAIN DRY...AS SUBSIDENCE
AND WARMING TAKES PLACE ALOFT AND MIXING DRIES OUT THE SURFACE.
THIS MAY TAKE MOST OF THE DAY THOUGH...SO SOME SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY
MAY BE IN PLACE PER THE LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS.

IN ADDITION...THE 12Z GUIDANCE WANTS TO SHUNT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE AND A SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. HAVE PUSHED
CHANCE POPS SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THESE
TRENDS. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN WV THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDING
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY FROM KENTUCKY TO WEST VIRGINIA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STAY JUST BELOW OR NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE NOT NEEDED TO MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT COMPARED TO
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A
BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME DRY DAYS. HARD TO PINPOINT ANY
PARTICULAR POINT WHEN RAIN IS LIKELY...BUT SO FAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT SHIFT MUCH DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND
LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THE TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE A THUNDERSTORM
AS INSTABILITY IS INCREASING WITH PEAKS OF SUNSHINE. THUS...HAVE
ADDED TSRA TEMPO GROUPS WITH PRIMARILY MVFR VSBY/CIG RESTRICTIONS.
WIND GUSTS TO 20KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER INTO THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PIVOTS TO THE EAST. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT TO FULLY DECOUPLE
OVERNIGHT...RAINFALL WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING THE CHANCE FOR MVFR AND
IFR RESTRICTIONS IN STRATUS AND FOG...ESPECIALLY OVER KFKL AND
KDUJ THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COOL NW FLOW MAY BRING OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD FOR MOST OF THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS
WILL BE WITH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPHI 302006
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
406 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE EAST THROUGH MID WEEK. AS
IT DOES SO, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO OUR REGION TOMORROW,
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY. THAT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95 THRU 8 PM THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND EVEN
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT THRU
3 AM WED FOR PORTIONS OF ERN PA AND NORTHERN NJ...WHERE CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO REFORM AND TRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUALLY IMPROVING WEATHER...AS BOTH POPS AND SKY COVER DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MAX TEMPS AOA AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM IN ORDER TO FOCUS ON ONGOING SEVERE
THREAT.

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THERE WAS ABOUT A 50/50 SPLIT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND WRF- NMMB INITIALIZATION AT 500MB. FARTHER
DOWNWARD, THE WRF- NMMB LOOKED BETTER. DP/DTING THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE LOOKS STRONGER, WHILE THE ERN NOAM TROF IS BROADER. WHILE
THE MODELS AGREE ON A CONTINUATION OF THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN, THEY VARY ON DETAILS AND CONTINUE TO FIND THEMSELVES IN
ODD POSITIONS WITH THE NORMALLY SLOWER ECMWF AND WRF-NMMB
CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. AS PER
PMDHMD WE ARE LEANING AWAY FROM THESE FASTER RESULTS AND GOING
MORE TOWARD CONTINUITY. REGARDLESS WITH THE CURRENT PATTERN
REMAINING IN PLACE IT IS TOUGH TO CONFIDENTLY PREDICT MUCH
PROLONGED DRY WEATHER.

THE START OF THE LONG TERM DOES HAVE DECENT MODELING CONSENSUS.
WHILE THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA,
SHORT WAVES INTERACTING WITH THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD RE-GENERATE
MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS RATHER QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLD
POCKET ALOFT COUPLED WITH NEAR NEUTRAL LOWER LEVEL THERMAL
FIELDS KEEP PREDICTED TOTAL TOTALS AT OR AROUND 50C.
APPROPRIATELY MIXED LAYER CAPES (ABOVE 1000J IN DELMARVA) PEAK
DURING THE MORNING AND DECREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS
THE COLD POCKET GETS SHEARED. HIGHEST POPS ARE IN THE MORNING WITH
A TRAIL OFF AS THE DAY CONTINUES. STRONGER SHEAR AND CAPE ARE
DECOUPLED AND (CAPE) MAY NOT RAMP UP FAST ENOUGH GIVEN TIMING OF
FEATURES FOR SEVERE WHICH LOOKS BETTER NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA. AIR
MASS SUPPORTIVE OF MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MAX TEMPS MOST OF OUR CWA.

GIVEN THE BRIEF FLATTENING OF THE TROF ALOFT, WE DID NOT CARRY
MUCH OF A CHANCE OF THUNDER INTO THE NIGHT AND NO POPS ANYWHERE
OVERNIGHT. STAT GUIDANCE MINS LOOK REASONABLE.

ON THURSDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF
OUR CWA. FROM HERE THE TIMING OF IMPULSES ON THE FRONT START TO
DIVERGE. REGARDLESS, THE BOUNDARY IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO ACT AS A
TRIGGER WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE (THUS HIGHER POPS) IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF UR CWA. MIXED LAYER CAPES IN DELMARVA REACH THE LOWER
1000S, BUT ARE RELATIVELY LOW FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. THUNDER
CHANCES MAY BE OVERSTATED. THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST A 2-3F DROP OFF
IN MAX TEMPS FROM WED.

NOW THE MODELS REALLY START DIVERGING FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
WITH THE GFS AND CAN GGEM EMPHASIZING FRIDAY WITH THE ECMWF AND
WRF THURSDAY NIGHT. WHERE MODELS AGREE IS THAT INSTABILITY IN OUR
CWA IS MODEST AND THERE ARE HIGHER CHANCES SOUTH THAN NORTH.
TIMING RESOLUTION IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO FORECAST DRY WEATHER FOR
EITHER PERIOD. WE DID STEER HIGHER POPS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
GEFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE OP GFS.

IT DOES NOT BECOME MUCH CLEARER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH THE ECMWF
FORECASTING A DRY DAY AND THE CAN GGEM HAVING A TOTAL WASHOUT. MOST
MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING A SFC LOW ON THE LEVEL OF LAST SATURDAY,
SO FOR NOW WE KEPT THE FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY CLOSE TO
CONTINUITY AND SUMMER CLIMO AND NOT SOUND LIKE A TOTAL LOSS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY REMAIN CLOSE TO CONTINUITY. WITH BOTH THE GFS AND EC
DRY WE HAVE SUNDAY PREDICTED TO BE THE BETTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND
DAYS AND KEPT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR MONDAY AS THE
WARM FRONT IS PREDICTED TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
LOWER CEILINGS, SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR WITH ANY PCPN CHANCES DECREASING
QUICKLY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT SOME
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS DURING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
IMPACT OUTLOOKED TO BE GREATER FOR SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.
&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEAS ON THE OCEAN MAY APPROACH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN PRE FRONTAL SOUTHERLY FLOW, BUT THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS MIGHT
REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN
AVERAGE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
BASED ON OUR LOCAL FORECAST APPLICATION USING A 3 FOOT WAVES/8
SECOND PERIOD AND SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND 12 KNOTS, WE CONTINUE
WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR NEW JERSEY AND LOW A
LOW RISK FOR DELAWARE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE CHART BELOW SHOWS RAINFALL STATISTICS AT OUR FOUR BIG CLIMATE
SITES THRU 6/29. THE COLUMNS ARE BROKEN DOWN BY SITE, "POR" (HOW
FAR RECORDS DATE BACK), JUNE 2015 RAINFALL, NORMAL JUNE RAINFALL,
JUNE 2015 RAINFALL RANKING, AS WELL AS THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.

SITE    POR     JUNE    NORMAL    RANK   WETTEST

ILG     1894    12.46    3.50      2ND     13.66 (2013)
ACY     1874     8.04    2.81      2ND      8.45 (1920)
ABE     1922     7.02    3.86      6TH     10.51 (1938)
PHL     1872     7.23    3.08     10TH     10.56 (2013)

AT THIS TIME, IT HAS BEEN THE SECOND WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD IN
BOTH WILMINGTON AND ATLANTIC CITY. WITH ONLY TODAY LEFT IN THE
MONTH, CURRENT FORECASTS DO NOT FAVOR EITHER SITE BREAKING THEIR
ALL-TIME JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. HOWEVER, IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A HEAVY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO CLOSE THE GAP, WHICH IS 0.41 INCHES IN
ATLANTIC CITY AND 1.2 INCHES IN WILMINGTON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-101-103-105.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ001-007>009.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI
NEAR TERM...FRANCK
SHORT TERM...FRANCK
LONG TERM...GIGI/JOHNSON
AVIATION...FRANCK/GIGI
MARINE...FRANCK/GIGI
RIP CURRENTS...FRANCK
CLIMATE...FRANCK



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 301956
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
356 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE
FRONT LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 378 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT FOR
THE ERN VA PIEDMONT AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VA. ALSO FOR
DORCHESTER COUNTY MD AND NORTHAMPTON COUNTY NC.

LATEST GOES VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTS EXPANDING CU FIELD OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG A LINE FROM SOUTH HILL TO RICHMOND AND THE NORTHERN
NECK IN VIC OF THE LEE/THERMAL TROUGH. BEGINNING TO SEE LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY INCREASING IN THESE CELLS...BUT THEY WILL CONTINUE TO
FIGHT THE WARM AIR ALOFT AND MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE IN THIS REGION THRU THE AFTERNOON...AS
LOCATIONS TO THE EAST FIGHT THE RIDGE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL WRN
ATLANTIC. SPC MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE ALONG
WITH 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS DUE TO STRONG SHEAR IN A REGION OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND A WELL MIXED BL. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO
EXPECTED. HAVE MAINTAINED 30-40 POPS THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION
REMAINS SCATTERED.

ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING/WEAKENING FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE THRU
THE AFTERNOON. BETTER HEIGHT FALLS/UVM ALSO ARRIVE THIS EVENING.
PV ANOMALY AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT PROGGED TO DEVELOP A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE THERMAL TROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS PROGGED TO
LIFTS INTO THE PIEDMONT FROM THE WEST...SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. CONTINUED INFLUENCE FROM THE WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE
EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS ACTIVITY AS IT REACHES THE COAST DUE TO WARM
TEMPS ALOFT. LLJ ALSO KICKS IN THIS EVENING...ADVECTING BETTER
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. DAMAGING WIND THREAT CONTINUES INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

POPS TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING LATE
(ESPECIALLY W). MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING ERN VA. LOW TONIGHT
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES IMMEDIATELY N OF THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...THERE IS LITTLE FORCING...SO ONLY A ~20% POP
IS FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ~30%
CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT
HIGHER. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO ONCE AGAIN REACH THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

THE FRONT SAGS S INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS BY AFTERNOON. THE 00Z/30 NAM IS THE QUICKEST...WHILE
THE 00/30 GFS/ECMWF/CMC LAG THE ENERGY TO THE W UNTIL AFTERNOON.
AT THIS TIME...THE LATER CONSENSUS SOLUTION HAS BEEN
FAVORED...WITH ONLY 20-30% POPS FORECAST IN THE MORNING...BEFORE
BRINGING 40-50% INTO WRN PORTIONS BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH
30-40% FARTHER E. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
LOW/MID 80S N...TO AROUND 90 SE WITH THE FRONT OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPSTREAM BLOCKING PATTERN RESULTS IN LITTLE MOVEMENT OF OVERALL
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THRU THE HOLIDAY WKEND / MED RANGE PERIOD.

MODELS STALL WAVY FRONTAL BNDRY ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC REGION SAT.
GFS WANTS TO PUSH THIS BNDRY INTO NORTH CAROLINA SUN AS WEAK HIGH
PRS BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WHILE ECMWF KEEPS THE
BNDRY NEARLY STNRY ACROSS THE RGN. THE BNDRY PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRNT MONDAY WITH A TROF LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
THUS LOOK FOR CHC POPS EACH DAY AS TIMING OF ANY ONE DISTURBANCE
RATHER PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT.

HIGHS SAT / SUN IN THE M-U80S...85-90 MON / TUE. LOWS U60S-M70S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. BEGINNING TO NOTICE SOME CU/SC PUSHING IN FROM THE W/SW
ALONG A WEAK SFC TROUGH. SHRAS/TSTMS ARE PSBL THIS AFTN/EVENG
ESPECIALLY AT RIC/SBY...BUT CHANCE IS TOO LO TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS ATTM. WINDS WILL REMAIN S-SW AND COULD SEE AN OCCASIONAL GUST
UP TO ~20 KT THROUGH LATE AFTN. CURRENTLY NOTING NARROW LINE OF
CONVECTION LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. COULD SEE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS TONIGHT AFTER 23Z IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS ACTIVITY, AND AS UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES ACROSS TONIGHT.
BEST CHANCE WILL BE MAINLY TO THE W OF KRIC. HOWEVER, FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL IMPACT ANY ONE
TERMINAL AND WITH ANY CONVECTION STILL AT LEAST 6 HRS OFF, HV HELD
OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW. OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS, EXPECT SOME LOWER
CIGS MOVING IN OVERNIGHT ON SW FLOW, AND DROPPED DOWN TO LOW END
VFR NEAR MVFR CATEGORY OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...A FRNTAL SYSTM SLOWLY APPROACHES FM THE W DURING THE
REST OF THE WEEK. MAINLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS EACH DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES ON THU AND FRI WITH THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY, BUT
THE PERIOD OF MOST WIDESPREAD RESTRICTION AND CHCS FOR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS COME THURSDAY AFTN/FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL KEEP CRNT SCA HEADLINES UP FOR THE CHES BAY TONIGHT AS PRS
GRDNT TIGHTENS ENOUGH FOR MARGINAL (15-20 KT) WNDS. GRDNT RELAXES
WED MORNING KEEPING A WEAKER SLY/SWLY FLOW (10-15 KT) THRU WED NIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT. THE FRNT DROPS INTO THE AREA FM
THE NW ON THU...WITH WINDS BCMG LIGHT AND VRBL AS THE FRNT STALLS
THE LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THU NIGHT AND FRI. WAVES AVGG
1-2 FT AND SEAS AVGG 2-4 FT THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/SAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...MAS/MAM
MARINE...MPR




000
FXUS61 KLWX 301927
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
327 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
LATE ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN STALL ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
THE STALLED FRONT WILL LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SVR TSTM WATCH 372 IN EFFECT FOR METRO BALT AND N-CENTRL MD TIL
8PM AND SVR TSTM WATCH 377 IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF THE CWFA TIL
9PM.

LLVL CNVRGNC AND NOSE OF THTE RDG THE DRIVING MECHANISMS ATTM ACRS
NERN CWFA. DIURNAL HEATING...DIFFERNETIAL HEATING BNDRYS...TRRN
CIRCULATIONS...AND LEE TROF ALL PROVIDING LIFTING MECHANISMS FOR
THE REST OF THE AREA. ENVIRONMENT CONTAINS MORE THAN ENUF
CAPE/SHEAR /2000 J/KG SBCAPE AND 40 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR/. THIS
SUGGESTS THAT TSTM DVLPMNT WL BECOME MORE NMRS IN THE SHEN
VLY/BLURDG BEFORE 21Z. THESE STORMS WL THEN MIGRATE TWD THE I-95
CRRDR TWD THE END OF THE WATCH PD. THERE IS POTLENTIAL THAT STORMS
MAY LINGER BYD EXPIRATION OF WATCH. IF SO...A LCL EXTENSION MAY BE
CONSIDERED IN CONJUNCTION WITH SPC. THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SHEAR...A CPL
SUPERCELLS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

WHILE THERE SHOULD BE AN OVERALL EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND DIURNAL
WEAKENING OF ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...MODELS MAINTAIN ELEVATED INSTBY
OVERNIGHT AND DECENT SHEAR TNGT. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING TOWARD DAYBREAK. THEREFORE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID
60S WEST AND UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S EAST.

THE TROF WL EMERGE OVER THE ERN SHORE BY WED MRNG. A CDFNT WL BE
APPROACHING...ATTENDENT FM LOPRES THAT WL BE TRACKING ACRS QUEBEC
BY THAT TIME. HWVR...THE CDFNT LOOKS QUITE WEAK...AND AM
STRUGGLING TO FIND FORCING MECHANISMS. AMS WL STILL BE QUITE MOIST
BUT NOT THAT UNSTBL. MID LVL LAPSE RATES WL BE DECENT. WL HOLD
ONTO LOW END CHC POPS...HIER THAN MAV/MET...AND CONT TIL SUNSET.

AM NOT MAKING ANY SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES TO TEMPS ATTM. WL STILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR TMRW...SO TEMPS WL BE SLGTLY MUGGY WITH HIGHS
MID-UPR 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THURSDAY MORNING WHILE A COLD FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
HIGHLANDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FCST MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF
SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT. HEAVY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS ENHANCED LIFT
OCCURS IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A UPPER LEVEL JET. DUE TO THE TIME
OF DAY AND LACK OF INSTABILITY ALOFT...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN STORY THROUGH THE EXTENDED IS CONT CHCS FOR UNSETTLED WX...AS
STUBBORN FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR/OVER OUR AREA. THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO
FRONTAL LOCATION THROUGH THE EXTENDED. AS SUCH...IT IS DIFFICULT
DETERMINE THE SPATIOTEMPORAL EXTENT OF ANY ACTIVITY AND DETERMINE
CONVECTIVE VS SHOWER CHCS.

MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WHAT WILL THE WX BE LIKE ON SAT...FOR NOW
HAVE KEPT CHC POPS AND THUNDER...THOUGH THERE IS CERTAINLY BUST
POTENTIAL WITH THIS...AS FRONT COULD BE FAR ENOUGH TO OUR
SOUTH...WHICH WOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY (ELEVATED).

AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...TEMPS PROGGED TO REMAIN AOB CLIMO NORMS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD. DEWPOINTS ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 70F...SO NOT EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO BE VERY OPPRESSIVE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDS PREVAILING ATTM. TSRA DVLPMNT WL BE IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IN IMPACT AT A TERMINAL A BIT MORE
UNCERTAIN. AM USING VCTS TO COVER THRU EVENING PUSH...AND WL INCL
A TEMPO FOR SPECIFICS ONCE ITS MORE CERTAIN A TERMINAL WL BE
DIRECTLY AFFECTED. POTL FOR WINDS GUSTS 40-50 KT IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS.

BELIEVE OVERALL INTENSITY WL DECLINE OVNGT...BUT SUSPECT THERE WL
BE SOME ACTIVITY. FLGT RESTRICTIONS WL THEREFORE REMAIN PSBL...
BUT MORE LKLY MVFR. HWVR...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH IN STORM EVOLUTION.

TSRA CVRG LOOKING MUCH LWR ON WED...AS TROF WL BE EAST OF
TERMINALS. A WEAK CDFNT WL BE DROPPING SWD IN THE AFTN-EVNG. ITS
ENTIRELY PSBL THAT THERE WL BE NO TSRA AT ALL. TAFS VFR W/ CIGS
BKN-OVC050-060.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE
REGION

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH EXTENDED IS POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH SUB-VFR CONDS POSSIBLE NEAR TSTMS. VFR
CONDS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
S/SE CHANNELING OCCURING OVER THE WATERS ATTM. SCA REMAINS IN
EFFECT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG WIND GUSTS. GRADIENT WINDS WILL DIMINSH
OVERNIGHT. SW FLOW THROUGH WED AROUND 10 KT...ALTHOUGH MAY BE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER TOWARD TANGIER SOUND. LOWER CHANCE OF STORMS
THROUGH WED.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND MAY CAUSE
REDUCED VSBYS.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...THOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS FRONT WILL BE NEAR AREA
EACH DAY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EACH DAY...WHICH
COULD IMPACT MARINE CONCERNS

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LVLS RUNNING ABT A FOOT ABV ASTRO NORMS. THE LOWER OF THE
TWO HIGH TIDES ROLLING IN NOW...WHICH WL KEEP LEVELS BELOW ADVY
CRITERIA. HWVR...ISSUES WUD RESULT FROM THE NEXT TIDE...MIDNGT TO
NOON. TOO SOON TO ISSUE ADVY ATTM...BUT ONE MAY BE REQD BEFORE
EVNG OVER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ531>534-
     537-539>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     535-536-538.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...HTS/HAS/MSE
MARINE...HTS/HAS/MSE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 301927
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
327 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
LATE ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN STALL ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
THE STALLED FRONT WILL LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SVR TSTM WATCH 372 IN EFFECT FOR METRO BALT AND N-CENTRL MD TIL
8PM AND SVR TSTM WATCH 377 IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF THE CWFA TIL
9PM.

LLVL CNVRGNC AND NOSE OF THTE RDG THE DRIVING MECHANISMS ATTM ACRS
NERN CWFA. DIURNAL HEATING...DIFFERNETIAL HEATING BNDRYS...TRRN
CIRCULATIONS...AND LEE TROF ALL PROVIDING LIFTING MECHANISMS FOR
THE REST OF THE AREA. ENVIRONMENT CONTAINS MORE THAN ENUF
CAPE/SHEAR /2000 J/KG SBCAPE AND 40 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR/. THIS
SUGGESTS THAT TSTM DVLPMNT WL BECOME MORE NMRS IN THE SHEN
VLY/BLURDG BEFORE 21Z. THESE STORMS WL THEN MIGRATE TWD THE I-95
CRRDR TWD THE END OF THE WATCH PD. THERE IS POTLENTIAL THAT STORMS
MAY LINGER BYD EXPIRATION OF WATCH. IF SO...A LCL EXTENSION MAY BE
CONSIDERED IN CONJUNCTION WITH SPC. THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SHEAR...A CPL
SUPERCELLS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

WHILE THERE SHOULD BE AN OVERALL EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND DIURNAL
WEAKENING OF ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...MODELS MAINTAIN ELEVATED INSTBY
OVERNIGHT AND DECENT SHEAR TNGT. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING TOWARD DAYBREAK. THEREFORE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID
60S WEST AND UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S EAST.

THE TROF WL EMERGE OVER THE ERN SHORE BY WED MRNG. A CDFNT WL BE
APPROACHING...ATTENDENT FM LOPRES THAT WL BE TRACKING ACRS QUEBEC
BY THAT TIME. HWVR...THE CDFNT LOOKS QUITE WEAK...AND AM
STRUGGLING TO FIND FORCING MECHANISMS. AMS WL STILL BE QUITE MOIST
BUT NOT THAT UNSTBL. MID LVL LAPSE RATES WL BE DECENT. WL HOLD
ONTO LOW END CHC POPS...HIER THAN MAV/MET...AND CONT TIL SUNSET.

AM NOT MAKING ANY SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES TO TEMPS ATTM. WL STILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR TMRW...SO TEMPS WL BE SLGTLY MUGGY WITH HIGHS
MID-UPR 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THURSDAY MORNING WHILE A COLD FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
HIGHLANDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FCST MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF
SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT. HEAVY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS ENHANCED LIFT
OCCURS IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A UPPER LEVEL JET. DUE TO THE TIME
OF DAY AND LACK OF INSTABILITY ALOFT...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN STORY THROUGH THE EXTENDED IS CONT CHCS FOR UNSETTLED WX...AS
STUBBORN FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR/OVER OUR AREA. THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO
FRONTAL LOCATION THROUGH THE EXTENDED. AS SUCH...IT IS DIFFICULT
DETERMINE THE SPATIOTEMPORAL EXTENT OF ANY ACTIVITY AND DETERMINE
CONVECTIVE VS SHOWER CHCS.

MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WHAT WILL THE WX BE LIKE ON SAT...FOR NOW
HAVE KEPT CHC POPS AND THUNDER...THOUGH THERE IS CERTAINLY BUST
POTENTIAL WITH THIS...AS FRONT COULD BE FAR ENOUGH TO OUR
SOUTH...WHICH WOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY (ELEVATED).

AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...TEMPS PROGGED TO REMAIN AOB CLIMO NORMS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD. DEWPOINTS ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 70F...SO NOT EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO BE VERY OPPRESSIVE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDS PREVAILING ATTM. TSRA DVLPMNT WL BE IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IN IMPACT AT A TERMINAL A BIT MORE
UNCERTAIN. AM USING VCTS TO COVER THRU EVENING PUSH...AND WL INCL
A TEMPO FOR SPECIFICS ONCE ITS MORE CERTAIN A TERMINAL WL BE
DIRECTLY AFFECTED. POTL FOR WINDS GUSTS 40-50 KT IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS.

BELIEVE OVERALL INTENSITY WL DECLINE OVNGT...BUT SUSPECT THERE WL
BE SOME ACTIVITY. FLGT RESTRICTIONS WL THEREFORE REMAIN PSBL...
BUT MORE LKLY MVFR. HWVR...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH IN STORM EVOLUTION.

TSRA CVRG LOOKING MUCH LWR ON WED...AS TROF WL BE EAST OF
TERMINALS. A WEAK CDFNT WL BE DROPPING SWD IN THE AFTN-EVNG. ITS
ENTIRELY PSBL THAT THERE WL BE NO TSRA AT ALL. TAFS VFR W/ CIGS
BKN-OVC050-060.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE
REGION

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH EXTENDED IS POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH SUB-VFR CONDS POSSIBLE NEAR TSTMS. VFR
CONDS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
S/SE CHANNELING OCCURING OVER THE WATERS ATTM. SCA REMAINS IN
EFFECT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG WIND GUSTS. GRADIENT WINDS WILL DIMINSH
OVERNIGHT. SW FLOW THROUGH WED AROUND 10 KT...ALTHOUGH MAY BE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER TOWARD TANGIER SOUND. LOWER CHANCE OF STORMS
THROUGH WED.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND MAY CAUSE
REDUCED VSBYS.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...THOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS FRONT WILL BE NEAR AREA
EACH DAY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EACH DAY...WHICH
COULD IMPACT MARINE CONCERNS

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LVLS RUNNING ABT A FOOT ABV ASTRO NORMS. THE LOWER OF THE
TWO HIGH TIDES ROLLING IN NOW...WHICH WL KEEP LEVELS BELOW ADVY
CRITERIA. HWVR...ISSUES WUD RESULT FROM THE NEXT TIDE...MIDNGT TO
NOON. TOO SOON TO ISSUE ADVY ATTM...BUT ONE MAY BE REQD BEFORE
EVNG OVER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ531>534-
     537-539>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     535-536-538.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...HTS/HAS/MSE
MARINE...HTS/HAS/MSE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 301927
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
327 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
LATE ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN STALL ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
THE STALLED FRONT WILL LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SVR TSTM WATCH 372 IN EFFECT FOR METRO BALT AND N-CENTRL MD TIL
8PM AND SVR TSTM WATCH 377 IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF THE CWFA TIL
9PM.

LLVL CNVRGNC AND NOSE OF THTE RDG THE DRIVING MECHANISMS ATTM ACRS
NERN CWFA. DIURNAL HEATING...DIFFERNETIAL HEATING BNDRYS...TRRN
CIRCULATIONS...AND LEE TROF ALL PROVIDING LIFTING MECHANISMS FOR
THE REST OF THE AREA. ENVIRONMENT CONTAINS MORE THAN ENUF
CAPE/SHEAR /2000 J/KG SBCAPE AND 40 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR/. THIS
SUGGESTS THAT TSTM DVLPMNT WL BECOME MORE NMRS IN THE SHEN
VLY/BLURDG BEFORE 21Z. THESE STORMS WL THEN MIGRATE TWD THE I-95
CRRDR TWD THE END OF THE WATCH PD. THERE IS POTLENTIAL THAT STORMS
MAY LINGER BYD EXPIRATION OF WATCH. IF SO...A LCL EXTENSION MAY BE
CONSIDERED IN CONJUNCTION WITH SPC. THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SHEAR...A CPL
SUPERCELLS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

WHILE THERE SHOULD BE AN OVERALL EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND DIURNAL
WEAKENING OF ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...MODELS MAINTAIN ELEVATED INSTBY
OVERNIGHT AND DECENT SHEAR TNGT. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING TOWARD DAYBREAK. THEREFORE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID
60S WEST AND UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S EAST.

THE TROF WL EMERGE OVER THE ERN SHORE BY WED MRNG. A CDFNT WL BE
APPROACHING...ATTENDENT FM LOPRES THAT WL BE TRACKING ACRS QUEBEC
BY THAT TIME. HWVR...THE CDFNT LOOKS QUITE WEAK...AND AM
STRUGGLING TO FIND FORCING MECHANISMS. AMS WL STILL BE QUITE MOIST
BUT NOT THAT UNSTBL. MID LVL LAPSE RATES WL BE DECENT. WL HOLD
ONTO LOW END CHC POPS...HIER THAN MAV/MET...AND CONT TIL SUNSET.

AM NOT MAKING ANY SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES TO TEMPS ATTM. WL STILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR TMRW...SO TEMPS WL BE SLGTLY MUGGY WITH HIGHS
MID-UPR 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THURSDAY MORNING WHILE A COLD FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
HIGHLANDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FCST MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF
SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT. HEAVY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS ENHANCED LIFT
OCCURS IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A UPPER LEVEL JET. DUE TO THE TIME
OF DAY AND LACK OF INSTABILITY ALOFT...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN STORY THROUGH THE EXTENDED IS CONT CHCS FOR UNSETTLED WX...AS
STUBBORN FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR/OVER OUR AREA. THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO
FRONTAL LOCATION THROUGH THE EXTENDED. AS SUCH...IT IS DIFFICULT
DETERMINE THE SPATIOTEMPORAL EXTENT OF ANY ACTIVITY AND DETERMINE
CONVECTIVE VS SHOWER CHCS.

MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WHAT WILL THE WX BE LIKE ON SAT...FOR NOW
HAVE KEPT CHC POPS AND THUNDER...THOUGH THERE IS CERTAINLY BUST
POTENTIAL WITH THIS...AS FRONT COULD BE FAR ENOUGH TO OUR
SOUTH...WHICH WOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY (ELEVATED).

AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...TEMPS PROGGED TO REMAIN AOB CLIMO NORMS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD. DEWPOINTS ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 70F...SO NOT EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO BE VERY OPPRESSIVE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDS PREVAILING ATTM. TSRA DVLPMNT WL BE IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IN IMPACT AT A TERMINAL A BIT MORE
UNCERTAIN. AM USING VCTS TO COVER THRU EVENING PUSH...AND WL INCL
A TEMPO FOR SPECIFICS ONCE ITS MORE CERTAIN A TERMINAL WL BE
DIRECTLY AFFECTED. POTL FOR WINDS GUSTS 40-50 KT IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS.

BELIEVE OVERALL INTENSITY WL DECLINE OVNGT...BUT SUSPECT THERE WL
BE SOME ACTIVITY. FLGT RESTRICTIONS WL THEREFORE REMAIN PSBL...
BUT MORE LKLY MVFR. HWVR...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH IN STORM EVOLUTION.

TSRA CVRG LOOKING MUCH LWR ON WED...AS TROF WL BE EAST OF
TERMINALS. A WEAK CDFNT WL BE DROPPING SWD IN THE AFTN-EVNG. ITS
ENTIRELY PSBL THAT THERE WL BE NO TSRA AT ALL. TAFS VFR W/ CIGS
BKN-OVC050-060.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE
REGION

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH EXTENDED IS POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH SUB-VFR CONDS POSSIBLE NEAR TSTMS. VFR
CONDS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
S/SE CHANNELING OCCURING OVER THE WATERS ATTM. SCA REMAINS IN
EFFECT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG WIND GUSTS. GRADIENT WINDS WILL DIMINSH
OVERNIGHT. SW FLOW THROUGH WED AROUND 10 KT...ALTHOUGH MAY BE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER TOWARD TANGIER SOUND. LOWER CHANCE OF STORMS
THROUGH WED.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND MAY CAUSE
REDUCED VSBYS.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...THOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS FRONT WILL BE NEAR AREA
EACH DAY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EACH DAY...WHICH
COULD IMPACT MARINE CONCERNS

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LVLS RUNNING ABT A FOOT ABV ASTRO NORMS. THE LOWER OF THE
TWO HIGH TIDES ROLLING IN NOW...WHICH WL KEEP LEVELS BELOW ADVY
CRITERIA. HWVR...ISSUES WUD RESULT FROM THE NEXT TIDE...MIDNGT TO
NOON. TOO SOON TO ISSUE ADVY ATTM...BUT ONE MAY BE REQD BEFORE
EVNG OVER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ531>534-
     537-539>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     535-536-538.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...HTS/HAS/MSE
MARINE...HTS/HAS/MSE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 301927
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
327 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
LATE ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN STALL ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
THE STALLED FRONT WILL LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SVR TSTM WATCH 372 IN EFFECT FOR METRO BALT AND N-CENTRL MD TIL
8PM AND SVR TSTM WATCH 377 IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF THE CWFA TIL
9PM.

LLVL CNVRGNC AND NOSE OF THTE RDG THE DRIVING MECHANISMS ATTM ACRS
NERN CWFA. DIURNAL HEATING...DIFFERNETIAL HEATING BNDRYS...TRRN
CIRCULATIONS...AND LEE TROF ALL PROVIDING LIFTING MECHANISMS FOR
THE REST OF THE AREA. ENVIRONMENT CONTAINS MORE THAN ENUF
CAPE/SHEAR /2000 J/KG SBCAPE AND 40 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR/. THIS
SUGGESTS THAT TSTM DVLPMNT WL BECOME MORE NMRS IN THE SHEN
VLY/BLURDG BEFORE 21Z. THESE STORMS WL THEN MIGRATE TWD THE I-95
CRRDR TWD THE END OF THE WATCH PD. THERE IS POTLENTIAL THAT STORMS
MAY LINGER BYD EXPIRATION OF WATCH. IF SO...A LCL EXTENSION MAY BE
CONSIDERED IN CONJUNCTION WITH SPC. THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SHEAR...A CPL
SUPERCELLS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

WHILE THERE SHOULD BE AN OVERALL EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND DIURNAL
WEAKENING OF ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...MODELS MAINTAIN ELEVATED INSTBY
OVERNIGHT AND DECENT SHEAR TNGT. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING TOWARD DAYBREAK. THEREFORE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID
60S WEST AND UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S EAST.

THE TROF WL EMERGE OVER THE ERN SHORE BY WED MRNG. A CDFNT WL BE
APPROACHING...ATTENDENT FM LOPRES THAT WL BE TRACKING ACRS QUEBEC
BY THAT TIME. HWVR...THE CDFNT LOOKS QUITE WEAK...AND AM
STRUGGLING TO FIND FORCING MECHANISMS. AMS WL STILL BE QUITE MOIST
BUT NOT THAT UNSTBL. MID LVL LAPSE RATES WL BE DECENT. WL HOLD
ONTO LOW END CHC POPS...HIER THAN MAV/MET...AND CONT TIL SUNSET.

AM NOT MAKING ANY SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES TO TEMPS ATTM. WL STILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR TMRW...SO TEMPS WL BE SLGTLY MUGGY WITH HIGHS
MID-UPR 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THURSDAY MORNING WHILE A COLD FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
HIGHLANDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FCST MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF
SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT. HEAVY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS ENHANCED LIFT
OCCURS IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A UPPER LEVEL JET. DUE TO THE TIME
OF DAY AND LACK OF INSTABILITY ALOFT...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN STORY THROUGH THE EXTENDED IS CONT CHCS FOR UNSETTLED WX...AS
STUBBORN FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR/OVER OUR AREA. THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO
FRONTAL LOCATION THROUGH THE EXTENDED. AS SUCH...IT IS DIFFICULT
DETERMINE THE SPATIOTEMPORAL EXTENT OF ANY ACTIVITY AND DETERMINE
CONVECTIVE VS SHOWER CHCS.

MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WHAT WILL THE WX BE LIKE ON SAT...FOR NOW
HAVE KEPT CHC POPS AND THUNDER...THOUGH THERE IS CERTAINLY BUST
POTENTIAL WITH THIS...AS FRONT COULD BE FAR ENOUGH TO OUR
SOUTH...WHICH WOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY (ELEVATED).

AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...TEMPS PROGGED TO REMAIN AOB CLIMO NORMS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD. DEWPOINTS ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 70F...SO NOT EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO BE VERY OPPRESSIVE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDS PREVAILING ATTM. TSRA DVLPMNT WL BE IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IN IMPACT AT A TERMINAL A BIT MORE
UNCERTAIN. AM USING VCTS TO COVER THRU EVENING PUSH...AND WL INCL
A TEMPO FOR SPECIFICS ONCE ITS MORE CERTAIN A TERMINAL WL BE
DIRECTLY AFFECTED. POTL FOR WINDS GUSTS 40-50 KT IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS.

BELIEVE OVERALL INTENSITY WL DECLINE OVNGT...BUT SUSPECT THERE WL
BE SOME ACTIVITY. FLGT RESTRICTIONS WL THEREFORE REMAIN PSBL...
BUT MORE LKLY MVFR. HWVR...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH IN STORM EVOLUTION.

TSRA CVRG LOOKING MUCH LWR ON WED...AS TROF WL BE EAST OF
TERMINALS. A WEAK CDFNT WL BE DROPPING SWD IN THE AFTN-EVNG. ITS
ENTIRELY PSBL THAT THERE WL BE NO TSRA AT ALL. TAFS VFR W/ CIGS
BKN-OVC050-060.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE
REGION

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH EXTENDED IS POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH SUB-VFR CONDS POSSIBLE NEAR TSTMS. VFR
CONDS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
S/SE CHANNELING OCCURING OVER THE WATERS ATTM. SCA REMAINS IN
EFFECT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG WIND GUSTS. GRADIENT WINDS WILL DIMINSH
OVERNIGHT. SW FLOW THROUGH WED AROUND 10 KT...ALTHOUGH MAY BE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER TOWARD TANGIER SOUND. LOWER CHANCE OF STORMS
THROUGH WED.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND MAY CAUSE
REDUCED VSBYS.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...THOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS FRONT WILL BE NEAR AREA
EACH DAY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EACH DAY...WHICH
COULD IMPACT MARINE CONCERNS

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LVLS RUNNING ABT A FOOT ABV ASTRO NORMS. THE LOWER OF THE
TWO HIGH TIDES ROLLING IN NOW...WHICH WL KEEP LEVELS BELOW ADVY
CRITERIA. HWVR...ISSUES WUD RESULT FROM THE NEXT TIDE...MIDNGT TO
NOON. TOO SOON TO ISSUE ADVY ATTM...BUT ONE MAY BE REQD BEFORE
EVNG OVER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ531>534-
     537-539>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     535-536-538.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...HTS/HAS/MSE
MARINE...HTS/HAS/MSE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 301839
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
239 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ON
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN STALL ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THE
STALLED FRONT WILL LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
LIFTING NORTHWARD AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SVR TSTM WATCH 372 ISSUED FOR METRO BALT AND N-CENTRL MD. JUST
RELEASED WATCH 377 FOR THE REST OF THE CWFA.

LLVL CNVRGNC AND NOSE OF THTE RDG THE DRIVING MECHANISMS ATTM.
ENVIRONMENT CONTAINS MORE THAN ENUF CAPE/SHEAR /2000 J/KG
SBCAPE AND 40 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR/. WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND
TRRN CIRCULATIONS WITHIN LEE TROF...LIFTING MECHANISMS WILL BE IN
PLACE. THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HWVR THE
SHEAR SUGGESTS A CPL SUPERCELLS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

WHILE THERE SHOULD BE AN OVERALL EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND DIURNAL
WEAKENING OF ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...MODELS MAINTAIN ELEVATED INSTBY
OVERNIGHT...AND MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THEREFORE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S WEST AND UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LIFTING NORTH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT
LIKELY WON/T ENTER THE AREA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF PRECIP QUITE UNCERTAIN WITHOUT STRONG FORCING
MECHANISMS. IF FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE CORRECT IN DECREASING INSTBY
BEHIND THE TROUGH PASSAGE IN THE AFTERNOON...CONVECTION MAY BE
RATHER LIMITED. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT DAY.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC JUST TO OUR SOUTH. SUPPORT ALOFT WILL WANE AS THE TROUGH
PASSES SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE OR MOVE AWAY.
WITH THE FRONT STALLED IN THE AREA...GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO HONE
IN ON A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...TIMING IS STILL MUCH IN QUESTION...SO GENERALLY KEEP
CHANCE POPS AROUND WITH LIKELYS TO THE SOUTH CLOSER TO THE STALLED
FRONT. WITH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER...TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH THE LONG TERM THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIC WITH A
BROAD TROUGH OVER CANADA...AND A STRONG RIDGE OUT WEST. THIS WILL
KEEP FUNNELLING DISTURBANCES SOUTHEAST AND EAST ACROSS OUR AREA AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED OUT OVER THE REGION. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH THE FRONT NEARBY
BUT TIMING DISTURBANCES WILL BE INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT AS WE GO
FURTHER OUT. RIGHT NOW ONE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT US SATURDAY...AND
ANOTHER MONDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS NOT HIGH.
SO...GENERALLY HAVE KEPT TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY. AS WE GET
CLOSER...WE SHOULD HAVE BETTER CLARITY AS FAR AS DAYS WHICH WILL
TURN OUT MOSTLY RAIN-FREE...AND THOSE WHICH WILL BE PRETTY WET.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MIDDAY WITH OCNL GUSTS
TO 20 KT. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND TIMING STILL LOWER CONFIDENCE
TODAY. CONVERGENCE DVLPG SOME STORMS INVOF DCA/IAD/BWI THIS MRNG.
THINK THE ACTIVITY SHUD JUMP TO THE BLURDG DURING THE AFTN.
HWVR...CANNOT RULE ANYTHING OUT IN TERMS OF TIMING AND PLACEMENT.
RESTRICTIONS WUD BE BRIEF...BUT MVFR/IFR POTL EXISTS. STRONG WIND
GUSTS COULD ACCOMPANY ANY STORM.

DISTURBANCE CROSSES AREA LATE TONIGHT/WED MORNING...SO A SHOWER OR
STORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...BUT LOWER POTENTIAL FOR CIG/VSBY
REDUCTIONS. QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY
LINGERS/REDEVELOPS WED AFTERNOON...LOW CHANCE OF IMPACTS.

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH EXTENDED IS POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. WINDS WILL BE UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER IN THE AREA AFTER ARRIVING WEDNESDAY.
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PROVIDE A MORE CONCENTRATED PERIOD OF
RAIN AND IFR CIGS/VIS AT SOME POINT THURSDAY...FRIDAY OR SATURDAY
BUT LOW CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW ON WHEN THIS IS...OR IF IT EVEN
HAPPENS.

&&

.MARINE...
S/SE CHANNELING OCCURING OVER THE WATERS. SCA IN EFFECT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND
GUSTS-- SOME SMW/S ARE POSSIBLE. GRADIENT WINDS WILL DIMINSH
OVERNIGHT. SW FLOW THROUGH WED AROUND 10 KT...ALTHOUGH MAY BE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER TOWARD TANGIER SOUND. LOWER CHANCE OF STORMS
THROUGH WED.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...THOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS FRONT WILL BE NEAR AREA
EACH DAY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EACH DAY...WHICH
COULD IMPACT MARINE CONCERNS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LVLS WL BE INCREASING THRU MID WEEK. THE WATER LVLS TOPPED
OUT ON THE EDGE OF ADVY CRITERIA THIS MORNING AT WASD2 AND AXTV2.
BETTER CHC TMRW DURING THE SAME TIME CYCLE...MIDNGT THRU NOON.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ531>534-
     537-539>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     535-536-538.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...ADS/HTS
SHORT TERM...ADS/RCM
LONG TERM...RCM
AVIATION...ADS/RCM/HTS
MARINE...ADS/RCM/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KLWX 301839
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
239 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ON
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN STALL ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THE
STALLED FRONT WILL LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
LIFTING NORTHWARD AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SVR TSTM WATCH 372 ISSUED FOR METRO BALT AND N-CENTRL MD. JUST
RELEASED WATCH 377 FOR THE REST OF THE CWFA.

LLVL CNVRGNC AND NOSE OF THTE RDG THE DRIVING MECHANISMS ATTM.
ENVIRONMENT CONTAINS MORE THAN ENUF CAPE/SHEAR /2000 J/KG
SBCAPE AND 40 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR/. WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND
TRRN CIRCULATIONS WITHIN LEE TROF...LIFTING MECHANISMS WILL BE IN
PLACE. THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HWVR THE
SHEAR SUGGESTS A CPL SUPERCELLS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

WHILE THERE SHOULD BE AN OVERALL EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND DIURNAL
WEAKENING OF ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...MODELS MAINTAIN ELEVATED INSTBY
OVERNIGHT...AND MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THEREFORE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S WEST AND UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LIFTING NORTH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT
LIKELY WON/T ENTER THE AREA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF PRECIP QUITE UNCERTAIN WITHOUT STRONG FORCING
MECHANISMS. IF FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE CORRECT IN DECREASING INSTBY
BEHIND THE TROUGH PASSAGE IN THE AFTERNOON...CONVECTION MAY BE
RATHER LIMITED. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT DAY.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC JUST TO OUR SOUTH. SUPPORT ALOFT WILL WANE AS THE TROUGH
PASSES SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE OR MOVE AWAY.
WITH THE FRONT STALLED IN THE AREA...GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO HONE
IN ON A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...TIMING IS STILL MUCH IN QUESTION...SO GENERALLY KEEP
CHANCE POPS AROUND WITH LIKELYS TO THE SOUTH CLOSER TO THE STALLED
FRONT. WITH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER...TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH THE LONG TERM THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIC WITH A
BROAD TROUGH OVER CANADA...AND A STRONG RIDGE OUT WEST. THIS WILL
KEEP FUNNELLING DISTURBANCES SOUTHEAST AND EAST ACROSS OUR AREA AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED OUT OVER THE REGION. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH THE FRONT NEARBY
BUT TIMING DISTURBANCES WILL BE INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT AS WE GO
FURTHER OUT. RIGHT NOW ONE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT US SATURDAY...AND
ANOTHER MONDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS NOT HIGH.
SO...GENERALLY HAVE KEPT TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY. AS WE GET
CLOSER...WE SHOULD HAVE BETTER CLARITY AS FAR AS DAYS WHICH WILL
TURN OUT MOSTLY RAIN-FREE...AND THOSE WHICH WILL BE PRETTY WET.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MIDDAY WITH OCNL GUSTS
TO 20 KT. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND TIMING STILL LOWER CONFIDENCE
TODAY. CONVERGENCE DVLPG SOME STORMS INVOF DCA/IAD/BWI THIS MRNG.
THINK THE ACTIVITY SHUD JUMP TO THE BLURDG DURING THE AFTN.
HWVR...CANNOT RULE ANYTHING OUT IN TERMS OF TIMING AND PLACEMENT.
RESTRICTIONS WUD BE BRIEF...BUT MVFR/IFR POTL EXISTS. STRONG WIND
GUSTS COULD ACCOMPANY ANY STORM.

DISTURBANCE CROSSES AREA LATE TONIGHT/WED MORNING...SO A SHOWER OR
STORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...BUT LOWER POTENTIAL FOR CIG/VSBY
REDUCTIONS. QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY
LINGERS/REDEVELOPS WED AFTERNOON...LOW CHANCE OF IMPACTS.

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH EXTENDED IS POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. WINDS WILL BE UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER IN THE AREA AFTER ARRIVING WEDNESDAY.
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PROVIDE A MORE CONCENTRATED PERIOD OF
RAIN AND IFR CIGS/VIS AT SOME POINT THURSDAY...FRIDAY OR SATURDAY
BUT LOW CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW ON WHEN THIS IS...OR IF IT EVEN
HAPPENS.

&&

.MARINE...
S/SE CHANNELING OCCURING OVER THE WATERS. SCA IN EFFECT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND
GUSTS-- SOME SMW/S ARE POSSIBLE. GRADIENT WINDS WILL DIMINSH
OVERNIGHT. SW FLOW THROUGH WED AROUND 10 KT...ALTHOUGH MAY BE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER TOWARD TANGIER SOUND. LOWER CHANCE OF STORMS
THROUGH WED.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...THOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS FRONT WILL BE NEAR AREA
EACH DAY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EACH DAY...WHICH
COULD IMPACT MARINE CONCERNS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LVLS WL BE INCREASING THRU MID WEEK. THE WATER LVLS TOPPED
OUT ON THE EDGE OF ADVY CRITERIA THIS MORNING AT WASD2 AND AXTV2.
BETTER CHC TMRW DURING THE SAME TIME CYCLE...MIDNGT THRU NOON.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ531>534-
     537-539>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     535-536-538.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...ADS/HTS
SHORT TERM...ADS/RCM
LONG TERM...RCM
AVIATION...ADS/RCM/HTS
MARINE...ADS/RCM/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KLWX 301839
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
239 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ON
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN STALL ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THE
STALLED FRONT WILL LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
LIFTING NORTHWARD AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SVR TSTM WATCH 372 ISSUED FOR METRO BALT AND N-CENTRL MD. JUST
RELEASED WATCH 377 FOR THE REST OF THE CWFA.

LLVL CNVRGNC AND NOSE OF THTE RDG THE DRIVING MECHANISMS ATTM.
ENVIRONMENT CONTAINS MORE THAN ENUF CAPE/SHEAR /2000 J/KG
SBCAPE AND 40 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR/. WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND
TRRN CIRCULATIONS WITHIN LEE TROF...LIFTING MECHANISMS WILL BE IN
PLACE. THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HWVR THE
SHEAR SUGGESTS A CPL SUPERCELLS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

WHILE THERE SHOULD BE AN OVERALL EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND DIURNAL
WEAKENING OF ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...MODELS MAINTAIN ELEVATED INSTBY
OVERNIGHT...AND MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THEREFORE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S WEST AND UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LIFTING NORTH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT
LIKELY WON/T ENTER THE AREA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF PRECIP QUITE UNCERTAIN WITHOUT STRONG FORCING
MECHANISMS. IF FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE CORRECT IN DECREASING INSTBY
BEHIND THE TROUGH PASSAGE IN THE AFTERNOON...CONVECTION MAY BE
RATHER LIMITED. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT DAY.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC JUST TO OUR SOUTH. SUPPORT ALOFT WILL WANE AS THE TROUGH
PASSES SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE OR MOVE AWAY.
WITH THE FRONT STALLED IN THE AREA...GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO HONE
IN ON A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...TIMING IS STILL MUCH IN QUESTION...SO GENERALLY KEEP
CHANCE POPS AROUND WITH LIKELYS TO THE SOUTH CLOSER TO THE STALLED
FRONT. WITH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER...TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH THE LONG TERM THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIC WITH A
BROAD TROUGH OVER CANADA...AND A STRONG RIDGE OUT WEST. THIS WILL
KEEP FUNNELLING DISTURBANCES SOUTHEAST AND EAST ACROSS OUR AREA AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED OUT OVER THE REGION. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH THE FRONT NEARBY
BUT TIMING DISTURBANCES WILL BE INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT AS WE GO
FURTHER OUT. RIGHT NOW ONE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT US SATURDAY...AND
ANOTHER MONDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS NOT HIGH.
SO...GENERALLY HAVE KEPT TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY. AS WE GET
CLOSER...WE SHOULD HAVE BETTER CLARITY AS FAR AS DAYS WHICH WILL
TURN OUT MOSTLY RAIN-FREE...AND THOSE WHICH WILL BE PRETTY WET.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MIDDAY WITH OCNL GUSTS
TO 20 KT. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND TIMING STILL LOWER CONFIDENCE
TODAY. CONVERGENCE DVLPG SOME STORMS INVOF DCA/IAD/BWI THIS MRNG.
THINK THE ACTIVITY SHUD JUMP TO THE BLURDG DURING THE AFTN.
HWVR...CANNOT RULE ANYTHING OUT IN TERMS OF TIMING AND PLACEMENT.
RESTRICTIONS WUD BE BRIEF...BUT MVFR/IFR POTL EXISTS. STRONG WIND
GUSTS COULD ACCOMPANY ANY STORM.

DISTURBANCE CROSSES AREA LATE TONIGHT/WED MORNING...SO A SHOWER OR
STORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...BUT LOWER POTENTIAL FOR CIG/VSBY
REDUCTIONS. QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY
LINGERS/REDEVELOPS WED AFTERNOON...LOW CHANCE OF IMPACTS.

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH EXTENDED IS POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. WINDS WILL BE UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER IN THE AREA AFTER ARRIVING WEDNESDAY.
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PROVIDE A MORE CONCENTRATED PERIOD OF
RAIN AND IFR CIGS/VIS AT SOME POINT THURSDAY...FRIDAY OR SATURDAY
BUT LOW CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW ON WHEN THIS IS...OR IF IT EVEN
HAPPENS.

&&

.MARINE...
S/SE CHANNELING OCCURING OVER THE WATERS. SCA IN EFFECT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND
GUSTS-- SOME SMW/S ARE POSSIBLE. GRADIENT WINDS WILL DIMINSH
OVERNIGHT. SW FLOW THROUGH WED AROUND 10 KT...ALTHOUGH MAY BE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER TOWARD TANGIER SOUND. LOWER CHANCE OF STORMS
THROUGH WED.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...THOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS FRONT WILL BE NEAR AREA
EACH DAY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EACH DAY...WHICH
COULD IMPACT MARINE CONCERNS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LVLS WL BE INCREASING THRU MID WEEK. THE WATER LVLS TOPPED
OUT ON THE EDGE OF ADVY CRITERIA THIS MORNING AT WASD2 AND AXTV2.
BETTER CHC TMRW DURING THE SAME TIME CYCLE...MIDNGT THRU NOON.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ531>534-
     537-539>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     535-536-538.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...ADS/HTS
SHORT TERM...ADS/RCM
LONG TERM...RCM
AVIATION...ADS/RCM/HTS
MARINE...ADS/RCM/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KLWX 301839
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
239 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ON
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN STALL ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THE
STALLED FRONT WILL LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
LIFTING NORTHWARD AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SVR TSTM WATCH 372 ISSUED FOR METRO BALT AND N-CENTRL MD. JUST
RELEASED WATCH 377 FOR THE REST OF THE CWFA.

LLVL CNVRGNC AND NOSE OF THTE RDG THE DRIVING MECHANISMS ATTM.
ENVIRONMENT CONTAINS MORE THAN ENUF CAPE/SHEAR /2000 J/KG
SBCAPE AND 40 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR/. WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND
TRRN CIRCULATIONS WITHIN LEE TROF...LIFTING MECHANISMS WILL BE IN
PLACE. THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HWVR THE
SHEAR SUGGESTS A CPL SUPERCELLS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

WHILE THERE SHOULD BE AN OVERALL EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND DIURNAL
WEAKENING OF ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...MODELS MAINTAIN ELEVATED INSTBY
OVERNIGHT...AND MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THEREFORE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S WEST AND UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LIFTING NORTH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT
LIKELY WON/T ENTER THE AREA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF PRECIP QUITE UNCERTAIN WITHOUT STRONG FORCING
MECHANISMS. IF FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE CORRECT IN DECREASING INSTBY
BEHIND THE TROUGH PASSAGE IN THE AFTERNOON...CONVECTION MAY BE
RATHER LIMITED. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT DAY.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC JUST TO OUR SOUTH. SUPPORT ALOFT WILL WANE AS THE TROUGH
PASSES SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE OR MOVE AWAY.
WITH THE FRONT STALLED IN THE AREA...GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO HONE
IN ON A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...TIMING IS STILL MUCH IN QUESTION...SO GENERALLY KEEP
CHANCE POPS AROUND WITH LIKELYS TO THE SOUTH CLOSER TO THE STALLED
FRONT. WITH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER...TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH THE LONG TERM THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIC WITH A
BROAD TROUGH OVER CANADA...AND A STRONG RIDGE OUT WEST. THIS WILL
KEEP FUNNELLING DISTURBANCES SOUTHEAST AND EAST ACROSS OUR AREA AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED OUT OVER THE REGION. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH THE FRONT NEARBY
BUT TIMING DISTURBANCES WILL BE INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT AS WE GO
FURTHER OUT. RIGHT NOW ONE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT US SATURDAY...AND
ANOTHER MONDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS NOT HIGH.
SO...GENERALLY HAVE KEPT TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY. AS WE GET
CLOSER...WE SHOULD HAVE BETTER CLARITY AS FAR AS DAYS WHICH WILL
TURN OUT MOSTLY RAIN-FREE...AND THOSE WHICH WILL BE PRETTY WET.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MIDDAY WITH OCNL GUSTS
TO 20 KT. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND TIMING STILL LOWER CONFIDENCE
TODAY. CONVERGENCE DVLPG SOME STORMS INVOF DCA/IAD/BWI THIS MRNG.
THINK THE ACTIVITY SHUD JUMP TO THE BLURDG DURING THE AFTN.
HWVR...CANNOT RULE ANYTHING OUT IN TERMS OF TIMING AND PLACEMENT.
RESTRICTIONS WUD BE BRIEF...BUT MVFR/IFR POTL EXISTS. STRONG WIND
GUSTS COULD ACCOMPANY ANY STORM.

DISTURBANCE CROSSES AREA LATE TONIGHT/WED MORNING...SO A SHOWER OR
STORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...BUT LOWER POTENTIAL FOR CIG/VSBY
REDUCTIONS. QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY
LINGERS/REDEVELOPS WED AFTERNOON...LOW CHANCE OF IMPACTS.

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH EXTENDED IS POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. WINDS WILL BE UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER IN THE AREA AFTER ARRIVING WEDNESDAY.
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PROVIDE A MORE CONCENTRATED PERIOD OF
RAIN AND IFR CIGS/VIS AT SOME POINT THURSDAY...FRIDAY OR SATURDAY
BUT LOW CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW ON WHEN THIS IS...OR IF IT EVEN
HAPPENS.

&&

.MARINE...
S/SE CHANNELING OCCURING OVER THE WATERS. SCA IN EFFECT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND
GUSTS-- SOME SMW/S ARE POSSIBLE. GRADIENT WINDS WILL DIMINSH
OVERNIGHT. SW FLOW THROUGH WED AROUND 10 KT...ALTHOUGH MAY BE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER TOWARD TANGIER SOUND. LOWER CHANCE OF STORMS
THROUGH WED.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...THOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS FRONT WILL BE NEAR AREA
EACH DAY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EACH DAY...WHICH
COULD IMPACT MARINE CONCERNS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LVLS WL BE INCREASING THRU MID WEEK. THE WATER LVLS TOPPED
OUT ON THE EDGE OF ADVY CRITERIA THIS MORNING AT WASD2 AND AXTV2.
BETTER CHC TMRW DURING THE SAME TIME CYCLE...MIDNGT THRU NOON.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ531>534-
     537-539>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     535-536-538.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...ADS/HTS
SHORT TERM...ADS/RCM
LONG TERM...RCM
AVIATION...ADS/RCM/HTS
MARINE...ADS/RCM/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KLWX 301839
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
239 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ON
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN STALL ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THE
STALLED FRONT WILL LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
LIFTING NORTHWARD AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SVR TSTM WATCH 372 ISSUED FOR METRO BALT AND N-CENTRL MD. JUST
RELEASED WATCH 377 FOR THE REST OF THE CWFA.

LLVL CNVRGNC AND NOSE OF THTE RDG THE DRIVING MECHANISMS ATTM.
ENVIRONMENT CONTAINS MORE THAN ENUF CAPE/SHEAR /2000 J/KG
SBCAPE AND 40 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR/. WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND
TRRN CIRCULATIONS WITHIN LEE TROF...LIFTING MECHANISMS WILL BE IN
PLACE. THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HWVR THE
SHEAR SUGGESTS A CPL SUPERCELLS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

WHILE THERE SHOULD BE AN OVERALL EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND DIURNAL
WEAKENING OF ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...MODELS MAINTAIN ELEVATED INSTBY
OVERNIGHT...AND MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THEREFORE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S WEST AND UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LIFTING NORTH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT
LIKELY WON/T ENTER THE AREA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF PRECIP QUITE UNCERTAIN WITHOUT STRONG FORCING
MECHANISMS. IF FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE CORRECT IN DECREASING INSTBY
BEHIND THE TROUGH PASSAGE IN THE AFTERNOON...CONVECTION MAY BE
RATHER LIMITED. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT DAY.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC JUST TO OUR SOUTH. SUPPORT ALOFT WILL WANE AS THE TROUGH
PASSES SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE OR MOVE AWAY.
WITH THE FRONT STALLED IN THE AREA...GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO HONE
IN ON A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...TIMING IS STILL MUCH IN QUESTION...SO GENERALLY KEEP
CHANCE POPS AROUND WITH LIKELYS TO THE SOUTH CLOSER TO THE STALLED
FRONT. WITH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER...TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH THE LONG TERM THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIC WITH A
BROAD TROUGH OVER CANADA...AND A STRONG RIDGE OUT WEST. THIS WILL
KEEP FUNNELLING DISTURBANCES SOUTHEAST AND EAST ACROSS OUR AREA AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED OUT OVER THE REGION. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH THE FRONT NEARBY
BUT TIMING DISTURBANCES WILL BE INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT AS WE GO
FURTHER OUT. RIGHT NOW ONE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT US SATURDAY...AND
ANOTHER MONDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS NOT HIGH.
SO...GENERALLY HAVE KEPT TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY. AS WE GET
CLOSER...WE SHOULD HAVE BETTER CLARITY AS FAR AS DAYS WHICH WILL
TURN OUT MOSTLY RAIN-FREE...AND THOSE WHICH WILL BE PRETTY WET.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MIDDAY WITH OCNL GUSTS
TO 20 KT. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND TIMING STILL LOWER CONFIDENCE
TODAY. CONVERGENCE DVLPG SOME STORMS INVOF DCA/IAD/BWI THIS MRNG.
THINK THE ACTIVITY SHUD JUMP TO THE BLURDG DURING THE AFTN.
HWVR...CANNOT RULE ANYTHING OUT IN TERMS OF TIMING AND PLACEMENT.
RESTRICTIONS WUD BE BRIEF...BUT MVFR/IFR POTL EXISTS. STRONG WIND
GUSTS COULD ACCOMPANY ANY STORM.

DISTURBANCE CROSSES AREA LATE TONIGHT/WED MORNING...SO A SHOWER OR
STORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...BUT LOWER POTENTIAL FOR CIG/VSBY
REDUCTIONS. QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY
LINGERS/REDEVELOPS WED AFTERNOON...LOW CHANCE OF IMPACTS.

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH EXTENDED IS POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. WINDS WILL BE UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER IN THE AREA AFTER ARRIVING WEDNESDAY.
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PROVIDE A MORE CONCENTRATED PERIOD OF
RAIN AND IFR CIGS/VIS AT SOME POINT THURSDAY...FRIDAY OR SATURDAY
BUT LOW CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW ON WHEN THIS IS...OR IF IT EVEN
HAPPENS.

&&

.MARINE...
S/SE CHANNELING OCCURING OVER THE WATERS. SCA IN EFFECT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND
GUSTS-- SOME SMW/S ARE POSSIBLE. GRADIENT WINDS WILL DIMINSH
OVERNIGHT. SW FLOW THROUGH WED AROUND 10 KT...ALTHOUGH MAY BE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER TOWARD TANGIER SOUND. LOWER CHANCE OF STORMS
THROUGH WED.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...THOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS FRONT WILL BE NEAR AREA
EACH DAY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EACH DAY...WHICH
COULD IMPACT MARINE CONCERNS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LVLS WL BE INCREASING THRU MID WEEK. THE WATER LVLS TOPPED
OUT ON THE EDGE OF ADVY CRITERIA THIS MORNING AT WASD2 AND AXTV2.
BETTER CHC TMRW DURING THE SAME TIME CYCLE...MIDNGT THRU NOON.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ531>534-
     537-539>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     535-536-538.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...ADS/HTS
SHORT TERM...ADS/RCM
LONG TERM...RCM
AVIATION...ADS/RCM/HTS
MARINE...ADS/RCM/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KLWX 301839
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
239 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ON
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN STALL ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THE
STALLED FRONT WILL LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
LIFTING NORTHWARD AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SVR TSTM WATCH 372 ISSUED FOR METRO BALT AND N-CENTRL MD. JUST
RELEASED WATCH 377 FOR THE REST OF THE CWFA.

LLVL CNVRGNC AND NOSE OF THTE RDG THE DRIVING MECHANISMS ATTM.
ENVIRONMENT CONTAINS MORE THAN ENUF CAPE/SHEAR /2000 J/KG
SBCAPE AND 40 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR/. WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND
TRRN CIRCULATIONS WITHIN LEE TROF...LIFTING MECHANISMS WILL BE IN
PLACE. THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HWVR THE
SHEAR SUGGESTS A CPL SUPERCELLS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

WHILE THERE SHOULD BE AN OVERALL EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND DIURNAL
WEAKENING OF ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...MODELS MAINTAIN ELEVATED INSTBY
OVERNIGHT...AND MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THEREFORE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S WEST AND UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LIFTING NORTH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT
LIKELY WON/T ENTER THE AREA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF PRECIP QUITE UNCERTAIN WITHOUT STRONG FORCING
MECHANISMS. IF FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE CORRECT IN DECREASING INSTBY
BEHIND THE TROUGH PASSAGE IN THE AFTERNOON...CONVECTION MAY BE
RATHER LIMITED. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT DAY.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC JUST TO OUR SOUTH. SUPPORT ALOFT WILL WANE AS THE TROUGH
PASSES SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE OR MOVE AWAY.
WITH THE FRONT STALLED IN THE AREA...GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO HONE
IN ON A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...TIMING IS STILL MUCH IN QUESTION...SO GENERALLY KEEP
CHANCE POPS AROUND WITH LIKELYS TO THE SOUTH CLOSER TO THE STALLED
FRONT. WITH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER...TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH THE LONG TERM THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIC WITH A
BROAD TROUGH OVER CANADA...AND A STRONG RIDGE OUT WEST. THIS WILL
KEEP FUNNELLING DISTURBANCES SOUTHEAST AND EAST ACROSS OUR AREA AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED OUT OVER THE REGION. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH THE FRONT NEARBY
BUT TIMING DISTURBANCES WILL BE INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT AS WE GO
FURTHER OUT. RIGHT NOW ONE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT US SATURDAY...AND
ANOTHER MONDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS NOT HIGH.
SO...GENERALLY HAVE KEPT TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY. AS WE GET
CLOSER...WE SHOULD HAVE BETTER CLARITY AS FAR AS DAYS WHICH WILL
TURN OUT MOSTLY RAIN-FREE...AND THOSE WHICH WILL BE PRETTY WET.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MIDDAY WITH OCNL GUSTS
TO 20 KT. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND TIMING STILL LOWER CONFIDENCE
TODAY. CONVERGENCE DVLPG SOME STORMS INVOF DCA/IAD/BWI THIS MRNG.
THINK THE ACTIVITY SHUD JUMP TO THE BLURDG DURING THE AFTN.
HWVR...CANNOT RULE ANYTHING OUT IN TERMS OF TIMING AND PLACEMENT.
RESTRICTIONS WUD BE BRIEF...BUT MVFR/IFR POTL EXISTS. STRONG WIND
GUSTS COULD ACCOMPANY ANY STORM.

DISTURBANCE CROSSES AREA LATE TONIGHT/WED MORNING...SO A SHOWER OR
STORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...BUT LOWER POTENTIAL FOR CIG/VSBY
REDUCTIONS. QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY
LINGERS/REDEVELOPS WED AFTERNOON...LOW CHANCE OF IMPACTS.

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH EXTENDED IS POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. WINDS WILL BE UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER IN THE AREA AFTER ARRIVING WEDNESDAY.
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PROVIDE A MORE CONCENTRATED PERIOD OF
RAIN AND IFR CIGS/VIS AT SOME POINT THURSDAY...FRIDAY OR SATURDAY
BUT LOW CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW ON WHEN THIS IS...OR IF IT EVEN
HAPPENS.

&&

.MARINE...
S/SE CHANNELING OCCURING OVER THE WATERS. SCA IN EFFECT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND
GUSTS-- SOME SMW/S ARE POSSIBLE. GRADIENT WINDS WILL DIMINSH
OVERNIGHT. SW FLOW THROUGH WED AROUND 10 KT...ALTHOUGH MAY BE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER TOWARD TANGIER SOUND. LOWER CHANCE OF STORMS
THROUGH WED.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...THOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS FRONT WILL BE NEAR AREA
EACH DAY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EACH DAY...WHICH
COULD IMPACT MARINE CONCERNS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LVLS WL BE INCREASING THRU MID WEEK. THE WATER LVLS TOPPED
OUT ON THE EDGE OF ADVY CRITERIA THIS MORNING AT WASD2 AND AXTV2.
BETTER CHC TMRW DURING THE SAME TIME CYCLE...MIDNGT THRU NOON.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ531>534-
     537-539>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     535-536-538.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...ADS/HTS
SHORT TERM...ADS/RCM
LONG TERM...RCM
AVIATION...ADS/RCM/HTS
MARINE...ADS/RCM/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301821
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
221 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND AND DRIER
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX OVER WESTERN OHIO...APPARENT IN BOTH
THE RADAR AND SATELLITE...WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...CLOUDS HAVE
SCATTERED OUT SUFFICIENTLY TO WARM AND DESTABILIZE THE AREA...WITH
ABOUT 1000J/KG OF MUCAPE AS SUGGESTED BY THE MESOANALYSIS. WITH
30-35KTS OF BULK SHEAR...AND SOME COOLING ALOFT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...SOME STORMS SHOULD BE SUPPORTED TO
STRONG OR SEVERE LEVELS. AS SUCH...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
ADDED OUR AREA TO A SLIGHT RISK AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT BUT WITH FREEZING LEVELS NEAR 12KFT...SOME HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

TRIED TO TIME THE HIGHEST POPS WITH THE LONE OF CONVECTION OVER
OHIO THAT THE HRRR REPRESENTED WELL THIS MORNING. CURRENT TIMING
HAS THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION EAST OF THE REGION BY 8PM. WEAK
COLD ADVECTION WILL ENSUE OVERNIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE
MIXING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEW MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE AREA SAVE FOR THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND THE RIDGES MAY REMAIN DRY...AS SUBSIDENCE
AND WARMING TAKES PLACE ALOFT AND MIXING DRIES OUT THE SURFACE.
THIS MAY TAKE MOST OF THE DAY THOUGH...SO SOME SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY
MAY BE IN PLACE PER THE LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS.

IN ADDITION...THE 12Z GUIDANCE WANTS TO SHUNT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE AND A SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. HAVE PUSHED
CHANCE POPS SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THESE
TRENDS. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN WV THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDING
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY FROM KENTUCKY TO WEST VIRGINIA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STAY JUST BELOW OR NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE NOT NEEDED TO MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT COMPARED TO
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A
BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME DRY DAYS. HARD TO PINPOINT ANY
PARTICULAR POINT WHEN RAIN IS LIKELY...BUT SO FAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT SHIFT MUCH DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND
LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THE TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE A THUNDERSTORM
AS INSTABILITY IS INCREASING WITH PEAKS OF SUNSHINE. THUS...HAVE
ADDED TSRA TEMPO GROUPS WITH PRIMARILY MVFR VSBY/CIG RESTRICTIONS.
WIND GUSTS TO 20KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER INTO THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PIVOTS TO THE EAST. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT TO FULLY DECOUPLE
OVERNIGHT...RAINFALL WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING THE CHANCE FOR MVFR AND
IFR RESTRICTIONS IN STRATUS AND FOG...ESPECIALLY OVER KFKL AND
KDUJ THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COOL NW FLOW MAY BRING OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD FOR MOST OF THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS
WILL BE WITH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301821
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
221 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND AND DRIER
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX OVER WESTERN OHIO...APPARENT IN BOTH
THE RADAR AND SATELLITE...WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...CLOUDS HAVE
SCATTERED OUT SUFFICIENTLY TO WARM AND DESTABILIZE THE AREA...WITH
ABOUT 1000J/KG OF MUCAPE AS SUGGESTED BY THE MESOANALYSIS. WITH
30-35KTS OF BULK SHEAR...AND SOME COOLING ALOFT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...SOME STORMS SHOULD BE SUPPORTED TO
STRONG OR SEVERE LEVELS. AS SUCH...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
ADDED OUR AREA TO A SLIGHT RISK AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT BUT WITH FREEZING LEVELS NEAR 12KFT...SOME HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

TRIED TO TIME THE HIGHEST POPS WITH THE LONE OF CONVECTION OVER
OHIO THAT THE HRRR REPRESENTED WELL THIS MORNING. CURRENT TIMING
HAS THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION EAST OF THE REGION BY 8PM. WEAK
COLD ADVECTION WILL ENSUE OVERNIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE
MIXING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEW MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE AREA SAVE FOR THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND THE RIDGES MAY REMAIN DRY...AS SUBSIDENCE
AND WARMING TAKES PLACE ALOFT AND MIXING DRIES OUT THE SURFACE.
THIS MAY TAKE MOST OF THE DAY THOUGH...SO SOME SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY
MAY BE IN PLACE PER THE LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS.

IN ADDITION...THE 12Z GUIDANCE WANTS TO SHUNT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE AND A SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. HAVE PUSHED
CHANCE POPS SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THESE
TRENDS. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN WV THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDING
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY FROM KENTUCKY TO WEST VIRGINIA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STAY JUST BELOW OR NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE NOT NEEDED TO MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT COMPARED TO
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A
BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME DRY DAYS. HARD TO PINPOINT ANY
PARTICULAR POINT WHEN RAIN IS LIKELY...BUT SO FAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT SHIFT MUCH DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND
LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THE TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE A THUNDERSTORM
AS INSTABILITY IS INCREASING WITH PEAKS OF SUNSHINE. THUS...HAVE
ADDED TSRA TEMPO GROUPS WITH PRIMARILY MVFR VSBY/CIG RESTRICTIONS.
WIND GUSTS TO 20KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER INTO THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PIVOTS TO THE EAST. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT TO FULLY DECOUPLE
OVERNIGHT...RAINFALL WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING THE CHANCE FOR MVFR AND
IFR RESTRICTIONS IN STRATUS AND FOG...ESPECIALLY OVER KFKL AND
KDUJ THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COOL NW FLOW MAY BRING OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD FOR MOST OF THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS
WILL BE WITH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301821
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
221 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND AND DRIER
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX OVER WESTERN OHIO...APPARENT IN BOTH
THE RADAR AND SATELLITE...WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...CLOUDS HAVE
SCATTERED OUT SUFFICIENTLY TO WARM AND DESTABILIZE THE AREA...WITH
ABOUT 1000J/KG OF MUCAPE AS SUGGESTED BY THE MESOANALYSIS. WITH
30-35KTS OF BULK SHEAR...AND SOME COOLING ALOFT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...SOME STORMS SHOULD BE SUPPORTED TO
STRONG OR SEVERE LEVELS. AS SUCH...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
ADDED OUR AREA TO A SLIGHT RISK AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT BUT WITH FREEZING LEVELS NEAR 12KFT...SOME HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

TRIED TO TIME THE HIGHEST POPS WITH THE LONE OF CONVECTION OVER
OHIO THAT THE HRRR REPRESENTED WELL THIS MORNING. CURRENT TIMING
HAS THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION EAST OF THE REGION BY 8PM. WEAK
COLD ADVECTION WILL ENSUE OVERNIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE
MIXING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEW MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE AREA SAVE FOR THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND THE RIDGES MAY REMAIN DRY...AS SUBSIDENCE
AND WARMING TAKES PLACE ALOFT AND MIXING DRIES OUT THE SURFACE.
THIS MAY TAKE MOST OF THE DAY THOUGH...SO SOME SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY
MAY BE IN PLACE PER THE LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS.

IN ADDITION...THE 12Z GUIDANCE WANTS TO SHUNT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE AND A SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. HAVE PUSHED
CHANCE POPS SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THESE
TRENDS. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN WV THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDING
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY FROM KENTUCKY TO WEST VIRGINIA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STAY JUST BELOW OR NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE NOT NEEDED TO MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT COMPARED TO
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A
BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME DRY DAYS. HARD TO PINPOINT ANY
PARTICULAR POINT WHEN RAIN IS LIKELY...BUT SO FAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT SHIFT MUCH DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND
LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THE TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE A THUNDERSTORM
AS INSTABILITY IS INCREASING WITH PEAKS OF SUNSHINE. THUS...HAVE
ADDED TSRA TEMPO GROUPS WITH PRIMARILY MVFR VSBY/CIG RESTRICTIONS.
WIND GUSTS TO 20KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER INTO THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PIVOTS TO THE EAST. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT TO FULLY DECOUPLE
OVERNIGHT...RAINFALL WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING THE CHANCE FOR MVFR AND
IFR RESTRICTIONS IN STRATUS AND FOG...ESPECIALLY OVER KFKL AND
KDUJ THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COOL NW FLOW MAY BRING OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD FOR MOST OF THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS
WILL BE WITH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301821
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
221 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND AND DRIER
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX OVER WESTERN OHIO...APPARENT IN BOTH
THE RADAR AND SATELLITE...WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...CLOUDS HAVE
SCATTERED OUT SUFFICIENTLY TO WARM AND DESTABILIZE THE AREA...WITH
ABOUT 1000J/KG OF MUCAPE AS SUGGESTED BY THE MESOANALYSIS. WITH
30-35KTS OF BULK SHEAR...AND SOME COOLING ALOFT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...SOME STORMS SHOULD BE SUPPORTED TO
STRONG OR SEVERE LEVELS. AS SUCH...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
ADDED OUR AREA TO A SLIGHT RISK AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT BUT WITH FREEZING LEVELS NEAR 12KFT...SOME HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

TRIED TO TIME THE HIGHEST POPS WITH THE LONE OF CONVECTION OVER
OHIO THAT THE HRRR REPRESENTED WELL THIS MORNING. CURRENT TIMING
HAS THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION EAST OF THE REGION BY 8PM. WEAK
COLD ADVECTION WILL ENSUE OVERNIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE
MIXING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEW MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE AREA SAVE FOR THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND THE RIDGES MAY REMAIN DRY...AS SUBSIDENCE
AND WARMING TAKES PLACE ALOFT AND MIXING DRIES OUT THE SURFACE.
THIS MAY TAKE MOST OF THE DAY THOUGH...SO SOME SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY
MAY BE IN PLACE PER THE LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS.

IN ADDITION...THE 12Z GUIDANCE WANTS TO SHUNT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE AND A SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. HAVE PUSHED
CHANCE POPS SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THESE
TRENDS. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN WV THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDING
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY FROM KENTUCKY TO WEST VIRGINIA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STAY JUST BELOW OR NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE NOT NEEDED TO MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT COMPARED TO
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A
BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME DRY DAYS. HARD TO PINPOINT ANY
PARTICULAR POINT WHEN RAIN IS LIKELY...BUT SO FAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT SHIFT MUCH DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND
LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THE TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE A THUNDERSTORM
AS INSTABILITY IS INCREASING WITH PEAKS OF SUNSHINE. THUS...HAVE
ADDED TSRA TEMPO GROUPS WITH PRIMARILY MVFR VSBY/CIG RESTRICTIONS.
WIND GUSTS TO 20KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER INTO THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PIVOTS TO THE EAST. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT TO FULLY DECOUPLE
OVERNIGHT...RAINFALL WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING THE CHANCE FOR MVFR AND
IFR RESTRICTIONS IN STRATUS AND FOG...ESPECIALLY OVER KFKL AND
KDUJ THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COOL NW FLOW MAY BRING OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD FOR MOST OF THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS
WILL BE WITH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 301816
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
216 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY...WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
STALL ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE CURRENT UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...WITH A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SUBTROPICAL WRN
ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING BACK
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE ERN GREAT LAKES TODAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE W BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT THROUGH THE ERN LAKES AS WELL...WITH THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NW. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
REGION TODAY WITH STRONG DIABATIC HEATING...AND THIS WILL BECOME
THE FOCAL POINT FOR ISO-SCT CONVECTION LATER TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. BEST COVERAGE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS BEST HEIGHT FALLS
ARRIVE OVER THE REGION. HI-RES GUIDANCE STILL HITTING ON THE SE
THIS EVENING...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND WARM TEMPS ALOFT
PROVIDED BY OFFSHORE RIDGE (MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES) WILL
HELP LIMIT COVERAGE. EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REACH
30-35KT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING COINCIDING WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. INSTABILITY IS MORE MARGINAL
(MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG) WHEN COMPARED TO THE EVENTS OF JUN
20/25. OVERALL STORM STRUCTURE SHOULD BE LESS ORGANIZED THAN THOSE
EVENTS...BUT A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS STILL EXISTS BASED ON
THE STRENGTH OF THE SHEAR IN A REGION OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND A WELL-MIXED BL.


THE DAY SHOULD BEGIN SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION...BEFORE BECOMING
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. POPS THEN
TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEAR LATE (ESPECIALLY W).
MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING ERN VA. LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES IMMEDIATELY N OF THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...THERE IS LITTLE FORCING...SO ONLY A ~20% POP
IS FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ~30%
CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT
HIGHER. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO ONCE AGAIN REACH THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

THE FRONT SAGS S INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS BY AFTERNOON. THE 00Z/30 NAM IS THE QUICKEST...WHILE
THE 00/30 GFS/ECMWF/CMC LAG THE ENERGY TO THE W UNTIL AFTERNOON.
AT THIS TIME...THE LATER CONSENSUS SOLUTION HAS BEEN
FAVORED...WITH ONLY 20-30% POPS FORECAST IN THE MORNING...BEFORE
BRINGING 40-50% INTO WRN PORTIONS BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH
30-40% FARTHER E. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
LOW/MID 80S N...TO AROUND 90 SE WITH THE FRONT OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SEEN THRU THE PERIOD AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BECOMES STALLED ACROSS THE REGION WITH SEVERAL S/W`S DROPPING SE
IN THE OVERALL NW FLOW. TIMING OF ANY S/W (OR CONVECTIVE COMPLEX)
RATHER PROBLEMATIC ATTM...SO WILL CARRY THE POPS THROUGH THE 12
HOUR PERIOD VERSUS TRYING TO GO WITH A MORE DIURNAL PATTERN. SOME
CONSENSUS HAS DEVELOPED WITH RESPECT TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM. A BROAD 50% POP IS
FORECAST AT THIS TIME THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI...BEFORE TAPERING TO
30-40%. THEN BASICALLY 30-40% FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD EXCEPT
SUNDAY WHERE THE LATEST DATA IS HINTING AT A SOMEWHAT DRIER DAY
(20-30 POP).

TEMPS COOLEST FRI GIVEN WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVERAGE AND PCPN CHCS.
HIGHS IN THE 80S. BOUNDARY LOCATION WILL PLAY A ROLE IN TEMPS
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...BUT MODEL TRENDS ARE FOR THE WARM
FRONT TO EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH OF THE FA PLACING REGION IN A
MORE HUMID AIRMASS. THUS...HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE M80S-L90S.
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT U60S-L70S. OTHERWISE...LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. BEGINNING TO NOTICE SOME CU/SC PUSHING IN FROM THE W/SW
ALONG A WEAK SFC TROUGH. SHRAS/TSTMS ARE PSBL THIS AFTN/EVENG
ESPECIALLY AT RIC/SBY...BUT CHANCE IS TOO LO TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS ATTM. WINDS WILL REMAIN S-SW AND COULD SEE AN OCCASIONAL GUST
UP TO ~20 KT THROUGH LATE AFTN. CURRENTLY NOTING NARROW LINE OF
CONVECTION LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. COULD SEE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS TONIGHT AFTER 23Z IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS ACTIVITY, AND AS UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES ACROSS TONIGHT.
BEST CHANCE WILL BE MAINLY TO THE W OF KRIC. HOWEVER, FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL IMPACT ANY ONE
TERMINAL AND WITH ANY CONVECTION STILL AT LEAST 6 HRS OFF, HV HELD
OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW. OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS, EXPECT SOME LOWER
CIGS MOVING IN OVERNIGHT ON SW FLOW, AND DROPPED DOWN TO LOW END
VFR NEAR MVFR CATEGORY OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...A FRNTAL SYSTM SLOWLY APPROACHES FM THE W DURING THE
REST OF THE WEEK. MAINLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS EACH DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES ON THU AND FRI WITH THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY, BUT
THE PERIOD OF MOST WIDESPREAD RESTRICTION AND CHCS FOR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS COME THURSDAY AFTN/FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
HI PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE TDA AS LO PRES TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...SLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THRU THE
DAY ACROSS THE MID ATLC. MARGINAL SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAY
STARTING MIDDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES...WITH WINDS
STAYING SUB-SCA OVER THE RIVERS/SOUND/CSTL WTRS. THE SCA ENDS
TNGT...WITH WEAKER SLY/SWLY FLOW (10-15 KT) EXPECTED FOR WED AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT. THE FRNT DROPS INTO THE AREA FM THE NW
ON THU...WITH WINDS BCMG LIGHT AND VRB THU AND FRI AS THE FRNT
STALLS OVER THE REGION. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT AND SEAS AVG 2-4 FT THRU
THE WEEK. SEAS MAY COME CLOSE TO 5 FT OVER NRN WTRS AT TIMES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/SAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...AJZ/MPR
AVIATION...MAS/MAM
MARINE...MAS



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 301449
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1049 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY...WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
STALL ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE CURRENT UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...WITH A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SUBTROPICAL WRN
ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING BACK
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE ERN GREAT LAKES TODAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE W BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT THROUGH THE ERN LAKES AS WELL...WITH THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NW. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
REGION TODAY WITH STRONG DIABATIC HEATING...AND THIS WILL BECOME
THE FOCAL POINT FOR ISO-SCT CONVECTION LATER TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. BEST COVERAGE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS BEST HEIGHT FALLS
ARRIVE OVER THE REGION. HI-RES GUIDANCE STILL HITTING ON THE SE
THIS EVENING...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND WARM TEMPS ALOFT
PROVIDED BY OFFSHORE RIDGE (MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES) WILL
HELP LIMIT COVERAGE. EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REACH
30-35KT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING COINCIDING WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. INSTABILITY IS MORE MARGINAL
(MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG) WHEN COMPARED TO THE EVENTS OF JUN
20/25. OVERALL STORM STRUCTURE SHOULD BE LESS ORGANIZED THAN THOSE
EVENTS...BUT A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS STILL EXISTS BASED ON
THE STRENGTH OF THE SHEAR IN A REGION OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND A WELL-MIXED BL.


THE DAY SHOULD BEGIN SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION...BEFORE BECOMING
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. POPS THEN
TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEAR LATE (ESPECIALLY W).
MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING ERN VA. LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES IMMEDIATELY N OF THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...THERE IS LITTLE FORCING...SO ONLY A ~20% POP
IS FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ~30%
CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT
HIGHER. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO ONCE AGAIN REACH THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

THE FRONT SAGS S INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS BY AFTERNOON. THE 00Z/30 NAM IS THE QUICKEST...WHILE
THE 00/30 GFS/ECMWF/CMC LAG THE ENERGY TO THE W UNTIL AFTERNOON.
AT THIS TIME...THE LATER CONSENSUS SOLUTION HAS BEEN
FAVORED...WITH ONLY 20-30% POPS FORECAST IN THE MORNING...BEFORE
BRINGING 40-50% INTO WRN PORTIONS BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH
30-40% FARTHER E. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
LOW/MID 80S N...TO AROUND 90 SE WITH THE FRONT OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SEEN THRU THE PERIOD AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BECOMES STALLED ACROSS THE REGION WITH SEVERAL S/W`S DROPPING SE
IN THE OVERALL NW FLOW. TIMING OF ANY S/W (OR CONVECTIVE COMPLEX)
RATHER PROBLEMATIC ATTM...SO WILL CARRY THE POPS THROUGH THE 12
HOUR PERIOD VERSUS TRYING TO GO WITH A MORE DIURNAL PATTERN. SOME
CONSENSUS HAS DEVELOPED WITH RESPECT TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM. A BROAD 50% POP IS
FORECAST AT THIS TIME THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI...BEFORE TAPERING TO
30-40%. THEN BASICALLY 30-40% FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD EXCEPT
SUNDAY WHERE THE LATEST DATA IS HINTING AT A SOMEWHAT DRIER DAY
(20-30 POP).

TEMPS COOLEST FRI GIVEN WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVERAGE AND PCPN CHCS.
HIGHS IN THE 80S. BOUNDARY LOCATION WILL PLAY A ROLE IN TEMPS
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...BUT MODEL TRENDS ARE FOR THE WARM
FRONT TO EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH OF THE FA PLACING REGION IN A
MORE HUMID AIRMASS. THUS...HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE M80S-L90S.
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT U60S-L70S. OTHERWISE...LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THRU THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. SFC HI PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE TDA
WITH SLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID ATLC. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS
UP TO ~20 KT THIS AFTN WITH MAINLY JUST MID/HI CLOUDS EXPECTED.
SHRAS/TSTMS ARE PSBL THIS AFTN/EVENG ESPECIALLY AT RIC/SBY...BUT
CHANCE IS TOO LO TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK...A FRNTAL SYSTM SLOWLY APPROACHES FM THE W DURING THE
REST OF THE WEEK. MAINLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL. THERE WILL BE
CHANCES FOR AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS EACH DAY WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES ON THU AND FRI WITH THE FRNT IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.MARINE...
HI PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE TDA AS LO PRES TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...SLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THRU THE
DAY ACROSS THE MID ATLC. MARGINAL SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAY
STARTING MIDDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES...WITH WINDS
STAYING SUB-SCA OVER THE RIVERS/SOUND/CSTL WTRS. THE SCA ENDS
TNGT...WITH WEAKER SLY/SWLY FLOW (10-15 KT) EXPECTED FOR WED AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT. THE FRNT DROPS INTO THE AREA FM THE NW
ON THU...WITH WINDS BCMG LIGHT AND VRB THU AND FRI AS THE FRNT
STALLS OVER THE REGION. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT AND SEAS AVG 2-4 FT THRU
THE WEEK. SEAS MAY COME CLOSE TO 5 FT OVER NRN WTRS AT TIMES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/SAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...AJZ/MPR
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 301449
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1049 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY...WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
STALL ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE CURRENT UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...WITH A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SUBTROPICAL WRN
ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING BACK
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE ERN GREAT LAKES TODAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE W BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT THROUGH THE ERN LAKES AS WELL...WITH THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NW. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
REGION TODAY WITH STRONG DIABATIC HEATING...AND THIS WILL BECOME
THE FOCAL POINT FOR ISO-SCT CONVECTION LATER TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. BEST COVERAGE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS BEST HEIGHT FALLS
ARRIVE OVER THE REGION. HI-RES GUIDANCE STILL HITTING ON THE SE
THIS EVENING...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND WARM TEMPS ALOFT
PROVIDED BY OFFSHORE RIDGE (MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES) WILL
HELP LIMIT COVERAGE. EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REACH
30-35KT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING COINCIDING WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. INSTABILITY IS MORE MARGINAL
(MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG) WHEN COMPARED TO THE EVENTS OF JUN
20/25. OVERALL STORM STRUCTURE SHOULD BE LESS ORGANIZED THAN THOSE
EVENTS...BUT A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS STILL EXISTS BASED ON
THE STRENGTH OF THE SHEAR IN A REGION OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND A WELL-MIXED BL.


THE DAY SHOULD BEGIN SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION...BEFORE BECOMING
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. POPS THEN
TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEAR LATE (ESPECIALLY W).
MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING ERN VA. LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES IMMEDIATELY N OF THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...THERE IS LITTLE FORCING...SO ONLY A ~20% POP
IS FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ~30%
CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT
HIGHER. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO ONCE AGAIN REACH THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

THE FRONT SAGS S INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS BY AFTERNOON. THE 00Z/30 NAM IS THE QUICKEST...WHILE
THE 00/30 GFS/ECMWF/CMC LAG THE ENERGY TO THE W UNTIL AFTERNOON.
AT THIS TIME...THE LATER CONSENSUS SOLUTION HAS BEEN
FAVORED...WITH ONLY 20-30% POPS FORECAST IN THE MORNING...BEFORE
BRINGING 40-50% INTO WRN PORTIONS BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH
30-40% FARTHER E. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
LOW/MID 80S N...TO AROUND 90 SE WITH THE FRONT OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SEEN THRU THE PERIOD AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BECOMES STALLED ACROSS THE REGION WITH SEVERAL S/W`S DROPPING SE
IN THE OVERALL NW FLOW. TIMING OF ANY S/W (OR CONVECTIVE COMPLEX)
RATHER PROBLEMATIC ATTM...SO WILL CARRY THE POPS THROUGH THE 12
HOUR PERIOD VERSUS TRYING TO GO WITH A MORE DIURNAL PATTERN. SOME
CONSENSUS HAS DEVELOPED WITH RESPECT TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM. A BROAD 50% POP IS
FORECAST AT THIS TIME THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI...BEFORE TAPERING TO
30-40%. THEN BASICALLY 30-40% FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD EXCEPT
SUNDAY WHERE THE LATEST DATA IS HINTING AT A SOMEWHAT DRIER DAY
(20-30 POP).

TEMPS COOLEST FRI GIVEN WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVERAGE AND PCPN CHCS.
HIGHS IN THE 80S. BOUNDARY LOCATION WILL PLAY A ROLE IN TEMPS
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...BUT MODEL TRENDS ARE FOR THE WARM
FRONT TO EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH OF THE FA PLACING REGION IN A
MORE HUMID AIRMASS. THUS...HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE M80S-L90S.
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT U60S-L70S. OTHERWISE...LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THRU THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. SFC HI PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE TDA
WITH SLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID ATLC. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS
UP TO ~20 KT THIS AFTN WITH MAINLY JUST MID/HI CLOUDS EXPECTED.
SHRAS/TSTMS ARE PSBL THIS AFTN/EVENG ESPECIALLY AT RIC/SBY...BUT
CHANCE IS TOO LO TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK...A FRNTAL SYSTM SLOWLY APPROACHES FM THE W DURING THE
REST OF THE WEEK. MAINLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL. THERE WILL BE
CHANCES FOR AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS EACH DAY WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES ON THU AND FRI WITH THE FRNT IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.MARINE...
HI PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE TDA AS LO PRES TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...SLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THRU THE
DAY ACROSS THE MID ATLC. MARGINAL SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAY
STARTING MIDDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES...WITH WINDS
STAYING SUB-SCA OVER THE RIVERS/SOUND/CSTL WTRS. THE SCA ENDS
TNGT...WITH WEAKER SLY/SWLY FLOW (10-15 KT) EXPECTED FOR WED AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT. THE FRNT DROPS INTO THE AREA FM THE NW
ON THU...WITH WINDS BCMG LIGHT AND VRB THU AND FRI AS THE FRNT
STALLS OVER THE REGION. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT AND SEAS AVG 2-4 FT THRU
THE WEEK. SEAS MAY COME CLOSE TO 5 FT OVER NRN WTRS AT TIMES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/SAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...AJZ/MPR
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 301433
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1033 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ON
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN STALL ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THE
STALLED FRONT WILL LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
LIFTING NORTHWARD AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC ANALY DEPCITS SUBTLE FETURES TODAY. TOUGH TO PIN DOWN
SPECIFICALLY WHERE THE WMFNT IS...BUT CLERLY THERES CNVGNC INVOF
THE BALT/DC CRRDR BASED ON SELY FLOW ACRS NERN MD VS S/SWLY FLOW
ELSW WITHIN THE CWFA. THAT HAS RESULTED IN A PATCH OF CLDS IN THE
METROS. A CLUSTER OF SHRA HV BEEN ABLE TO DVLP UNDER CLD DECK...
WITH A HINT OF A LINE BGNG STRETCHING DOWN TO CHO.

LWX 12Z RAOB DEPICTS WARM LYRS H10-8 AND AGN H6-5. HWVR...THE
CURRENT RADAR SUGGESTS THAT MAY NOT BE A DETERRENT. THE MTNS/SHEN
VLY SEEM TO BE GETTING ENUF HEATING...SO WUD XPCT INSTBY TO
INTENSIFY. A MODIFIED SNDG...BASED ON LAMP AND A TEMP/DEWPT FCST
OF 85/65F...SUGGESTS 1500-2000 J/KG SBCAPE AVBL. SHEAR MEASURED
AT 30 KT...WHICH MDL PROGS RETAIN THRU THE DAY.

IN TERMS OF EVOLUTION...OBVIOUSLY THE CNVGNC WL DOMINATE FOR THE
MRNG. LWX WRF-ARW4 CAPTURING IT. HWVR...BELIEVE THAT TRRN
CIRCUALTION SHUD DVLP IN THE BLURDG OR IN THE CRRDR OF HEATING IN
THE SHEN VLY. HV POPS IN THE FORMER LOCATION FOR THE MORNING...
THEN EXPAND CHC POPS ELSW BY ELY AFTN.

SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP BASED ON MODIFIED RAOB
AND THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MDL GDNC. THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HWVR THE SHEAR SUGGESTS A CPL
SUPERCELLS NOT OUT OF THER QUESTION.

WHILE THERE SHOULD BE AN OVERALL EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND DIURNAL
WEAKENING OF ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...MODELS MAINTAIN ELEVATED INSTBY
OVERNIGHT...AND MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THEREFORE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S WEST AND UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LIFTING NORTH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT
LIKELY WON/T ENTER THE AREA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF PRECIP QUITE UNCERTAIN WITHOUT STRONG FORCING
MECHANISMS. IF FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE CORRECT IN DECREASING INSTBY
BEHIND THE TROUGH PASSAGE IN THE AFTERNOON...CONVECTION MAY BE
RATHER LIMITED. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT DAY.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC JUST TO OUR SOUTH. SUPPORT ALOFT WILL WANE AS THE TROUGH
PASSES SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE OR MOVE AWAY.
WITH THE FRONT STALLED IN THE AREA...GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO HONE
IN ON A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...TIMING IS STILL MUCH IN QUESTION...SO GENERALLY KEEP
CHANCE POPS AROUND WITH LIKELYS TO THE SOUTH CLOSER TO THE STALLED
FRONT. WITH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER...TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH THE LONG TERM THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIC WITH A
BROAD TROUGH OVER CANADA...AND A STRONG RIDGE OUT WEST. THIS WILL
KEEP FUNNELLING DISTURBANCES SOUTHEAST AND EAST ACROSS OUR AREA AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED OUT OVER THE REGION. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH THE FRONT NEARBY
BUT TIMING DISTURBANCES WILL BE INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT AS WE GO
FURTHER OUT. RIGHT NOW ONE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT US SATURDAY...AND
ANOTHER MONDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS NOT HIGH.
SO...GENERALLY HAVE KEPT TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY. AS WE GET
CLOSER...WE SHOULD HAVE BETTER CLARITY AS FAR AS DAYS WHICH WILL
TURN OUT MOSTLY RAIN-FREE...AND THOSE WHICH WILL BE PRETTY WET.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MIDDAY WITH OCNL GUSTS
TO 20 KT. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND TIMING STILL LOWER CONFIDENCE
TODAY. CONVERGENCE DVLPG SOME STORMS INVOF DCA/IAD/BWI THIS MRNG.
THINK THE ACTIVITY SHUD JUMP TO THE BLURDG DURING THE AFTN.
HWVR...CANNOT RULE ANYTHING OUT IN TERMS OF TIMING AND PLACEMENT.
RESTRICTIONS WUD BE BRIEF...BUT MVFR/IFR POTL EXISTS. STRONG WIND
GUSTS COULD ACCOMPANY ANY STORM.

DISTURBANCE CROSSES AREA LATE TONIGHT/WED MORNING...SO A SHOWER OR
STORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...BUT LOWER POTENTIAL FOR CIG/VSBY
REDUCTIONS. QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY
LINGERS/REDEVELOPS WED AFTERNOON...LOW CHANCE OF IMPACTS.

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH EXTENDED IS POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. WINDS WILL BE UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER IN THE AREA AFTER ARRIVING WEDNESDAY.
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PROVIDE A MORE CONCENTRATED PERIOD OF
RAIN AND IFR CIGS/VIS AT SOME POINT THURSDAY...FRIDAY OR SATURDAY
BUT LOW CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW ON WHEN THIS IS...OR IF IT EVEN
HAPPENS.

&&

.MARINE...
S/SE CHANNELING OCCURING OVER THE WATERS. SCA IN EFFECT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND
GUSTS-- SOME SMW/S ARE POSSIBLE. GRADIENT WINDS WILL DIMINSH
OVERNIGHT. SW FLOW THROUGH WED AROUND 10 KT...ALTHOUGH MAY BE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER TOWARD TANGIER SOUND. LOWER CHANCE OF STORMS
THROUGH WED.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...THOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS FRONT WILL BE NEAR AREA
EACH DAY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EACH DAY...WHICH
COULD IMPACT MARINE CONCERNS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LVLS WL BE INCREASING THRU MID WEEK. THE WATER LVLS TOPPED
OUT ON THE EDGE OF ADVY CRITERIA THIS MORNING AT WASD2 AND AXTV2.
BETTER CHC TMRW DURING THE SAME TIME CYCLE...MIDNGT THRU NOON.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ531>534-
     536-537-539>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     535-538.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...ADS/HTS
SHORT TERM...ADS/RCM
LONG TERM...RCM
AVIATION...ADS/RCM/HTS
MARINE...ADS/RCM/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 301433
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1033 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ON
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN STALL ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THE
STALLED FRONT WILL LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
LIFTING NORTHWARD AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC ANALY DEPCITS SUBTLE FETURES TODAY. TOUGH TO PIN DOWN
SPECIFICALLY WHERE THE WMFNT IS...BUT CLERLY THERES CNVGNC INVOF
THE BALT/DC CRRDR BASED ON SELY FLOW ACRS NERN MD VS S/SWLY FLOW
ELSW WITHIN THE CWFA. THAT HAS RESULTED IN A PATCH OF CLDS IN THE
METROS. A CLUSTER OF SHRA HV BEEN ABLE TO DVLP UNDER CLD DECK...
WITH A HINT OF A LINE BGNG STRETCHING DOWN TO CHO.

LWX 12Z RAOB DEPICTS WARM LYRS H10-8 AND AGN H6-5. HWVR...THE
CURRENT RADAR SUGGESTS THAT MAY NOT BE A DETERRENT. THE MTNS/SHEN
VLY SEEM TO BE GETTING ENUF HEATING...SO WUD XPCT INSTBY TO
INTENSIFY. A MODIFIED SNDG...BASED ON LAMP AND A TEMP/DEWPT FCST
OF 85/65F...SUGGESTS 1500-2000 J/KG SBCAPE AVBL. SHEAR MEASURED
AT 30 KT...WHICH MDL PROGS RETAIN THRU THE DAY.

IN TERMS OF EVOLUTION...OBVIOUSLY THE CNVGNC WL DOMINATE FOR THE
MRNG. LWX WRF-ARW4 CAPTURING IT. HWVR...BELIEVE THAT TRRN
CIRCUALTION SHUD DVLP IN THE BLURDG OR IN THE CRRDR OF HEATING IN
THE SHEN VLY. HV POPS IN THE FORMER LOCATION FOR THE MORNING...
THEN EXPAND CHC POPS ELSW BY ELY AFTN.

SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP BASED ON MODIFIED RAOB
AND THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MDL GDNC. THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HWVR THE SHEAR SUGGESTS A CPL
SUPERCELLS NOT OUT OF THER QUESTION.

WHILE THERE SHOULD BE AN OVERALL EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND DIURNAL
WEAKENING OF ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...MODELS MAINTAIN ELEVATED INSTBY
OVERNIGHT...AND MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THEREFORE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S WEST AND UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LIFTING NORTH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT
LIKELY WON/T ENTER THE AREA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF PRECIP QUITE UNCERTAIN WITHOUT STRONG FORCING
MECHANISMS. IF FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE CORRECT IN DECREASING INSTBY
BEHIND THE TROUGH PASSAGE IN THE AFTERNOON...CONVECTION MAY BE
RATHER LIMITED. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT DAY.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC JUST TO OUR SOUTH. SUPPORT ALOFT WILL WANE AS THE TROUGH
PASSES SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE OR MOVE AWAY.
WITH THE FRONT STALLED IN THE AREA...GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO HONE
IN ON A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...TIMING IS STILL MUCH IN QUESTION...SO GENERALLY KEEP
CHANCE POPS AROUND WITH LIKELYS TO THE SOUTH CLOSER TO THE STALLED
FRONT. WITH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER...TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH THE LONG TERM THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIC WITH A
BROAD TROUGH OVER CANADA...AND A STRONG RIDGE OUT WEST. THIS WILL
KEEP FUNNELLING DISTURBANCES SOUTHEAST AND EAST ACROSS OUR AREA AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED OUT OVER THE REGION. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH THE FRONT NEARBY
BUT TIMING DISTURBANCES WILL BE INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT AS WE GO
FURTHER OUT. RIGHT NOW ONE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT US SATURDAY...AND
ANOTHER MONDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS NOT HIGH.
SO...GENERALLY HAVE KEPT TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY. AS WE GET
CLOSER...WE SHOULD HAVE BETTER CLARITY AS FAR AS DAYS WHICH WILL
TURN OUT MOSTLY RAIN-FREE...AND THOSE WHICH WILL BE PRETTY WET.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MIDDAY WITH OCNL GUSTS
TO 20 KT. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND TIMING STILL LOWER CONFIDENCE
TODAY. CONVERGENCE DVLPG SOME STORMS INVOF DCA/IAD/BWI THIS MRNG.
THINK THE ACTIVITY SHUD JUMP TO THE BLURDG DURING THE AFTN.
HWVR...CANNOT RULE ANYTHING OUT IN TERMS OF TIMING AND PLACEMENT.
RESTRICTIONS WUD BE BRIEF...BUT MVFR/IFR POTL EXISTS. STRONG WIND
GUSTS COULD ACCOMPANY ANY STORM.

DISTURBANCE CROSSES AREA LATE TONIGHT/WED MORNING...SO A SHOWER OR
STORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...BUT LOWER POTENTIAL FOR CIG/VSBY
REDUCTIONS. QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY
LINGERS/REDEVELOPS WED AFTERNOON...LOW CHANCE OF IMPACTS.

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH EXTENDED IS POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. WINDS WILL BE UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER IN THE AREA AFTER ARRIVING WEDNESDAY.
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PROVIDE A MORE CONCENTRATED PERIOD OF
RAIN AND IFR CIGS/VIS AT SOME POINT THURSDAY...FRIDAY OR SATURDAY
BUT LOW CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW ON WHEN THIS IS...OR IF IT EVEN
HAPPENS.

&&

.MARINE...
S/SE CHANNELING OCCURING OVER THE WATERS. SCA IN EFFECT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND
GUSTS-- SOME SMW/S ARE POSSIBLE. GRADIENT WINDS WILL DIMINSH
OVERNIGHT. SW FLOW THROUGH WED AROUND 10 KT...ALTHOUGH MAY BE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER TOWARD TANGIER SOUND. LOWER CHANCE OF STORMS
THROUGH WED.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...THOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS FRONT WILL BE NEAR AREA
EACH DAY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EACH DAY...WHICH
COULD IMPACT MARINE CONCERNS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LVLS WL BE INCREASING THRU MID WEEK. THE WATER LVLS TOPPED
OUT ON THE EDGE OF ADVY CRITERIA THIS MORNING AT WASD2 AND AXTV2.
BETTER CHC TMRW DURING THE SAME TIME CYCLE...MIDNGT THRU NOON.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ531>534-
     536-537-539>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     535-538.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...ADS/HTS
SHORT TERM...ADS/RCM
LONG TERM...RCM
AVIATION...ADS/RCM/HTS
MARINE...ADS/RCM/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 301433
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1033 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ON
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN STALL ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THE
STALLED FRONT WILL LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
LIFTING NORTHWARD AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC ANALY DEPCITS SUBTLE FETURES TODAY. TOUGH TO PIN DOWN
SPECIFICALLY WHERE THE WMFNT IS...BUT CLERLY THERES CNVGNC INVOF
THE BALT/DC CRRDR BASED ON SELY FLOW ACRS NERN MD VS S/SWLY FLOW
ELSW WITHIN THE CWFA. THAT HAS RESULTED IN A PATCH OF CLDS IN THE
METROS. A CLUSTER OF SHRA HV BEEN ABLE TO DVLP UNDER CLD DECK...
WITH A HINT OF A LINE BGNG STRETCHING DOWN TO CHO.

LWX 12Z RAOB DEPICTS WARM LYRS H10-8 AND AGN H6-5. HWVR...THE
CURRENT RADAR SUGGESTS THAT MAY NOT BE A DETERRENT. THE MTNS/SHEN
VLY SEEM TO BE GETTING ENUF HEATING...SO WUD XPCT INSTBY TO
INTENSIFY. A MODIFIED SNDG...BASED ON LAMP AND A TEMP/DEWPT FCST
OF 85/65F...SUGGESTS 1500-2000 J/KG SBCAPE AVBL. SHEAR MEASURED
AT 30 KT...WHICH MDL PROGS RETAIN THRU THE DAY.

IN TERMS OF EVOLUTION...OBVIOUSLY THE CNVGNC WL DOMINATE FOR THE
MRNG. LWX WRF-ARW4 CAPTURING IT. HWVR...BELIEVE THAT TRRN
CIRCUALTION SHUD DVLP IN THE BLURDG OR IN THE CRRDR OF HEATING IN
THE SHEN VLY. HV POPS IN THE FORMER LOCATION FOR THE MORNING...
THEN EXPAND CHC POPS ELSW BY ELY AFTN.

SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP BASED ON MODIFIED RAOB
AND THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MDL GDNC. THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HWVR THE SHEAR SUGGESTS A CPL
SUPERCELLS NOT OUT OF THER QUESTION.

WHILE THERE SHOULD BE AN OVERALL EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND DIURNAL
WEAKENING OF ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...MODELS MAINTAIN ELEVATED INSTBY
OVERNIGHT...AND MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THEREFORE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S WEST AND UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LIFTING NORTH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT
LIKELY WON/T ENTER THE AREA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF PRECIP QUITE UNCERTAIN WITHOUT STRONG FORCING
MECHANISMS. IF FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE CORRECT IN DECREASING INSTBY
BEHIND THE TROUGH PASSAGE IN THE AFTERNOON...CONVECTION MAY BE
RATHER LIMITED. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT DAY.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC JUST TO OUR SOUTH. SUPPORT ALOFT WILL WANE AS THE TROUGH
PASSES SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE OR MOVE AWAY.
WITH THE FRONT STALLED IN THE AREA...GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO HONE
IN ON A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...TIMING IS STILL MUCH IN QUESTION...SO GENERALLY KEEP
CHANCE POPS AROUND WITH LIKELYS TO THE SOUTH CLOSER TO THE STALLED
FRONT. WITH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER...TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH THE LONG TERM THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIC WITH A
BROAD TROUGH OVER CANADA...AND A STRONG RIDGE OUT WEST. THIS WILL
KEEP FUNNELLING DISTURBANCES SOUTHEAST AND EAST ACROSS OUR AREA AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED OUT OVER THE REGION. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH THE FRONT NEARBY
BUT TIMING DISTURBANCES WILL BE INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT AS WE GO
FURTHER OUT. RIGHT NOW ONE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT US SATURDAY...AND
ANOTHER MONDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS NOT HIGH.
SO...GENERALLY HAVE KEPT TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY. AS WE GET
CLOSER...WE SHOULD HAVE BETTER CLARITY AS FAR AS DAYS WHICH WILL
TURN OUT MOSTLY RAIN-FREE...AND THOSE WHICH WILL BE PRETTY WET.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MIDDAY WITH OCNL GUSTS
TO 20 KT. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND TIMING STILL LOWER CONFIDENCE
TODAY. CONVERGENCE DVLPG SOME STORMS INVOF DCA/IAD/BWI THIS MRNG.
THINK THE ACTIVITY SHUD JUMP TO THE BLURDG DURING THE AFTN.
HWVR...CANNOT RULE ANYTHING OUT IN TERMS OF TIMING AND PLACEMENT.
RESTRICTIONS WUD BE BRIEF...BUT MVFR/IFR POTL EXISTS. STRONG WIND
GUSTS COULD ACCOMPANY ANY STORM.

DISTURBANCE CROSSES AREA LATE TONIGHT/WED MORNING...SO A SHOWER OR
STORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...BUT LOWER POTENTIAL FOR CIG/VSBY
REDUCTIONS. QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY
LINGERS/REDEVELOPS WED AFTERNOON...LOW CHANCE OF IMPACTS.

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH EXTENDED IS POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. WINDS WILL BE UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER IN THE AREA AFTER ARRIVING WEDNESDAY.
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PROVIDE A MORE CONCENTRATED PERIOD OF
RAIN AND IFR CIGS/VIS AT SOME POINT THURSDAY...FRIDAY OR SATURDAY
BUT LOW CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW ON WHEN THIS IS...OR IF IT EVEN
HAPPENS.

&&

.MARINE...
S/SE CHANNELING OCCURING OVER THE WATERS. SCA IN EFFECT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND
GUSTS-- SOME SMW/S ARE POSSIBLE. GRADIENT WINDS WILL DIMINSH
OVERNIGHT. SW FLOW THROUGH WED AROUND 10 KT...ALTHOUGH MAY BE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER TOWARD TANGIER SOUND. LOWER CHANCE OF STORMS
THROUGH WED.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...THOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS FRONT WILL BE NEAR AREA
EACH DAY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EACH DAY...WHICH
COULD IMPACT MARINE CONCERNS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LVLS WL BE INCREASING THRU MID WEEK. THE WATER LVLS TOPPED
OUT ON THE EDGE OF ADVY CRITERIA THIS MORNING AT WASD2 AND AXTV2.
BETTER CHC TMRW DURING THE SAME TIME CYCLE...MIDNGT THRU NOON.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ531>534-
     536-537-539>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     535-538.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...ADS/HTS
SHORT TERM...ADS/RCM
LONG TERM...RCM
AVIATION...ADS/RCM/HTS
MARINE...ADS/RCM/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 301433
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1033 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ON
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN STALL ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THE
STALLED FRONT WILL LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
LIFTING NORTHWARD AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC ANALY DEPCITS SUBTLE FETURES TODAY. TOUGH TO PIN DOWN
SPECIFICALLY WHERE THE WMFNT IS...BUT CLERLY THERES CNVGNC INVOF
THE BALT/DC CRRDR BASED ON SELY FLOW ACRS NERN MD VS S/SWLY FLOW
ELSW WITHIN THE CWFA. THAT HAS RESULTED IN A PATCH OF CLDS IN THE
METROS. A CLUSTER OF SHRA HV BEEN ABLE TO DVLP UNDER CLD DECK...
WITH A HINT OF A LINE BGNG STRETCHING DOWN TO CHO.

LWX 12Z RAOB DEPICTS WARM LYRS H10-8 AND AGN H6-5. HWVR...THE
CURRENT RADAR SUGGESTS THAT MAY NOT BE A DETERRENT. THE MTNS/SHEN
VLY SEEM TO BE GETTING ENUF HEATING...SO WUD XPCT INSTBY TO
INTENSIFY. A MODIFIED SNDG...BASED ON LAMP AND A TEMP/DEWPT FCST
OF 85/65F...SUGGESTS 1500-2000 J/KG SBCAPE AVBL. SHEAR MEASURED
AT 30 KT...WHICH MDL PROGS RETAIN THRU THE DAY.

IN TERMS OF EVOLUTION...OBVIOUSLY THE CNVGNC WL DOMINATE FOR THE
MRNG. LWX WRF-ARW4 CAPTURING IT. HWVR...BELIEVE THAT TRRN
CIRCUALTION SHUD DVLP IN THE BLURDG OR IN THE CRRDR OF HEATING IN
THE SHEN VLY. HV POPS IN THE FORMER LOCATION FOR THE MORNING...
THEN EXPAND CHC POPS ELSW BY ELY AFTN.

SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP BASED ON MODIFIED RAOB
AND THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MDL GDNC. THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HWVR THE SHEAR SUGGESTS A CPL
SUPERCELLS NOT OUT OF THER QUESTION.

WHILE THERE SHOULD BE AN OVERALL EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND DIURNAL
WEAKENING OF ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...MODELS MAINTAIN ELEVATED INSTBY
OVERNIGHT...AND MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THEREFORE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S WEST AND UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LIFTING NORTH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT
LIKELY WON/T ENTER THE AREA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF PRECIP QUITE UNCERTAIN WITHOUT STRONG FORCING
MECHANISMS. IF FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE CORRECT IN DECREASING INSTBY
BEHIND THE TROUGH PASSAGE IN THE AFTERNOON...CONVECTION MAY BE
RATHER LIMITED. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT DAY.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC JUST TO OUR SOUTH. SUPPORT ALOFT WILL WANE AS THE TROUGH
PASSES SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE OR MOVE AWAY.
WITH THE FRONT STALLED IN THE AREA...GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO HONE
IN ON A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...TIMING IS STILL MUCH IN QUESTION...SO GENERALLY KEEP
CHANCE POPS AROUND WITH LIKELYS TO THE SOUTH CLOSER TO THE STALLED
FRONT. WITH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER...TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH THE LONG TERM THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIC WITH A
BROAD TROUGH OVER CANADA...AND A STRONG RIDGE OUT WEST. THIS WILL
KEEP FUNNELLING DISTURBANCES SOUTHEAST AND EAST ACROSS OUR AREA AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED OUT OVER THE REGION. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH THE FRONT NEARBY
BUT TIMING DISTURBANCES WILL BE INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT AS WE GO
FURTHER OUT. RIGHT NOW ONE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT US SATURDAY...AND
ANOTHER MONDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS NOT HIGH.
SO...GENERALLY HAVE KEPT TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY. AS WE GET
CLOSER...WE SHOULD HAVE BETTER CLARITY AS FAR AS DAYS WHICH WILL
TURN OUT MOSTLY RAIN-FREE...AND THOSE WHICH WILL BE PRETTY WET.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MIDDAY WITH OCNL GUSTS
TO 20 KT. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND TIMING STILL LOWER CONFIDENCE
TODAY. CONVERGENCE DVLPG SOME STORMS INVOF DCA/IAD/BWI THIS MRNG.
THINK THE ACTIVITY SHUD JUMP TO THE BLURDG DURING THE AFTN.
HWVR...CANNOT RULE ANYTHING OUT IN TERMS OF TIMING AND PLACEMENT.
RESTRICTIONS WUD BE BRIEF...BUT MVFR/IFR POTL EXISTS. STRONG WIND
GUSTS COULD ACCOMPANY ANY STORM.

DISTURBANCE CROSSES AREA LATE TONIGHT/WED MORNING...SO A SHOWER OR
STORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...BUT LOWER POTENTIAL FOR CIG/VSBY
REDUCTIONS. QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY
LINGERS/REDEVELOPS WED AFTERNOON...LOW CHANCE OF IMPACTS.

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH EXTENDED IS POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. WINDS WILL BE UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER IN THE AREA AFTER ARRIVING WEDNESDAY.
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PROVIDE A MORE CONCENTRATED PERIOD OF
RAIN AND IFR CIGS/VIS AT SOME POINT THURSDAY...FRIDAY OR SATURDAY
BUT LOW CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW ON WHEN THIS IS...OR IF IT EVEN
HAPPENS.

&&

.MARINE...
S/SE CHANNELING OCCURING OVER THE WATERS. SCA IN EFFECT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND
GUSTS-- SOME SMW/S ARE POSSIBLE. GRADIENT WINDS WILL DIMINSH
OVERNIGHT. SW FLOW THROUGH WED AROUND 10 KT...ALTHOUGH MAY BE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER TOWARD TANGIER SOUND. LOWER CHANCE OF STORMS
THROUGH WED.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...THOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS FRONT WILL BE NEAR AREA
EACH DAY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EACH DAY...WHICH
COULD IMPACT MARINE CONCERNS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LVLS WL BE INCREASING THRU MID WEEK. THE WATER LVLS TOPPED
OUT ON THE EDGE OF ADVY CRITERIA THIS MORNING AT WASD2 AND AXTV2.
BETTER CHC TMRW DURING THE SAME TIME CYCLE...MIDNGT THRU NOON.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ531>534-
     536-537-539>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     535-538.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...ADS/HTS
SHORT TERM...ADS/RCM
LONG TERM...RCM
AVIATION...ADS/RCM/HTS
MARINE...ADS/RCM/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS




000
FXUS61 KPHI 301430
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1030 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS PREDICTED TO LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHEAST INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. IT WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
THAT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS
THROUGH OUR REGION ON INDEPENDENCE DAY. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD FOLLOW ON SUNDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE -SHRA WITH AN OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF
THUNDER MOVING THRU THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY AS ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRECEDE A WARM FRONT INVOF DE BAY
ATTM. AS MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL IN RESPONSE TO
S/WV TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...THE WM FRONT WILL MAKE
SLOW PROGRESS NORTH THRU THE DAY. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY`S
FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION.

THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. APPROACHING S/WV WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE OF LIFT...AS
BEST FORCING OCCURS NEAR THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AMPLE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE...AS DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR ADVECTS IN
ALOFT. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS INSTABILITY...AS LAPSE RATES ARE
LESS THAN IDEAL...WITH PERHAPS EVEN SOME CAPPING. SAT TRENDS
ALSO INDICATE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. THEREFORE ML CAPE MAY
HAVE A TOUGH TIME REACHING 1 KJ.

ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS LIMITED...BULK SHEAR IS 40 KNOTS NW OF
I-95 ALONG W/ AMPLE LOW-LEVEL HELICITY...AS 0-1 KM SHEAR REACHES
20 KNOTS. SO THERE IS SVR POTENTIAL TODAY MAINLY NW OF I-95...ESP
THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY...W/ THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL GIVEN INVERTED-V PROFILES AND FAVORABLE WBZ
HEIGHTS. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH ACTIVITY NEAR THE WARM FRONT...
WHERE A SUPERCELL CANNOT BE RULED OUT...PARTICULARLY IF GREATER
INSTABILITY IS REALIZED. FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO A CONCERN MAINLY
NW OF I-95...WHERE CELLS WILL HAVE A TENDANCY TO TRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA
AND ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES/VORTICITY IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE COULD BE A BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR
SOME AREAS DURING A PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT IN BETWEEN SHORT WAVES.
HOWEVER, WE EXPECT ACTIVITY TO INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD THE VERY EARLY
MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. THERE REMAINS SOME INSTABILITY THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND BULK SHEAR MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT, SO THERE
REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG STORMS.

LOWS TONIGHT ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE WAS ABOUT A 50/50 SPLIT BETWEEN THE GFS AND WRF-NMMB
INITIALIZATION AT 500MB. FARTHER DOWNWARD, THE WRF-NMMB LOOKED
BETTER. DP/DTING THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE LOOKS STRONGER, WHILE THE
ERN NOAM TROF IS BROADER. WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON A CONTINUATION
OF THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN, THEY VARY ON DETAILS AND
CONTINUE TO FIND THEMSELVES IN ODD POSITIONS WITH THE NORMALLY
SLOWER ECMWF AND WRF-NMMB CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE OTHER
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. AS PER PMDHMD WE ARE LEANING AWAY FROM THESE
FASTER RESULTS AND GOING MORE TOWARD CONTINUITY. REGARDLESS WITH
THE CURRENT PATTERN REMAINING IN PLACE IT IS TOUGH TO CONFIDENTLY
PREDICT MUCH PROLONGED DRY WEATHER.

THE START OF THE LONG TERM DOES HAVE DECENT MODELING CONSENSUS.
WHILE THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA,
SHORT WAVES INTERACTING WITH THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD RE-GENERATE
MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS RATHER QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLD
POCKET ALOFT COUPLED WITH NEAR NEUTRAL LOWER LEVEL THERMAL
FIELDS KEEP PREDICTED TOTAL TOTALS AT OR AROUND 50C.
APPROPRIATELY MIXED LAYER CAPES (ABOVE 1000J IN DELMARVA) PEAK
DURING THE MORNING AND DECREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS
THE COLD POCKET GETS SHEARED. HIGHEST POPS ARE IN THE MORNING WITH
A TRAIL OFF AS THE DAY CONTINUES. STRONGER SHEAR AND CAPE ARE
DECOUPLED AND (CAPE) MAY NOT RAMP UP FAST ENOUGH GIVEN TIMING OF
FEATURES FOR SEVERE WHICH LOOKS BETTER NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA. AIR
MASS SUPPORTIVE OF MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MAX TEMPS MOST OF OUR CWA.

GIVEN THE BRIEF FLATTENING OF THE TROF ALOFT, WE DID NOT CARRY
MUCH OF A CHANCE OF THUNDER INTO THE NIGHT AND NO POPS ANYWHERE
OVERNIGHT. STAT GUIDANCE MINS LOOK REASONABLE.

ON THURSDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF
OUR CWA. FROM HERE THE TIMING OF IMPULSES ON THE FRONT START TO
DIVERGE. REGARDLESS, THE BOUNDARY IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO ACT AS A
TRIGGER WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE (THUS HIGHER POPS) IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF UR CWA. MIXED LAYER CAPES IN DELMARVA REACH THE LOWER
1000S, BUT ARE RELATIVELY LOW FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. THUNDER
CHANCES MAY BE OVERSTATED. THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST A 2-3F DROP OFF
IN MAX TEMPS FROM WED.

NOW THE MODELS REALLY START DIVERGING FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
WITH THE GFS AND CAN GGEM EMPHASIZING FRIDAY WITH THE ECMWF AND
WRF THURSDAY NIGHT. WHERE MODELS AGREE IS THAT INSTABILITY IN OUR
CWA IS MODEST AND THERE ARE HIGHER CHANCES SOUTH THAN NORTH.
TIMING RESOLUTION IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO FORECAST DRY WEATHER FOR
EITHER PERIOD. WE DID STEER HIGHER POPS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
GEFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE OP GFS.

IT DOES NOT BECOME MUCH CLEARER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH THE ECMWF
FORECASTING A DRY DAY AND THE CAN GGEM HAVING A TOTAL WASHOUT. MOST
MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING A SFC LOW ON THE LEVEL OF LAST SATURDAY,
SO FOR NOW WE KEPT THE FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY CLOSE TO
CONTINUITY AND SUMMER CLIMO AND NOT SOUND LIKE A TOTAL LOSS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY REMAIN CLOSE TO CONTINUITY. WITH BOTH THE GFS AND EC
DRY WE HAVE SUNDAY PREDICTED TO BE THE BETTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND
DAYS AND KEPT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR MONDAY AS THE
WARM FRONT IS PREDICTED TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TAF SITES TODAY,
ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND LOWER THROUGH THE
DAY. SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON. WITH INSTABILITY INCREASING TODAY, THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO TEMPORARILY REDUCE VSBYS AND/OR CIGS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST, AND COULD GUST AROUND 15-20 KNOTS
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT, ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO TEMPORARILY REDUCE VSBYS AND/OR CIGS. THERE IS A BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR LOWER VSBYS OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE
AREA. WIND GUSTS WILL DROP OFF BY SUNSET, WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW
REMAINING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR WITH ANY PCPN CHANCES DECREASING
QUICKLY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT SOME
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS DURING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
IMPACT OUTLOOKED TO BE GREATER FOR SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WATERS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT
TIMES. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 3-4 FEET. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HIGHER
WINDS AND WAVES COULD OCCUR WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEAS ON THE OCEAN MAY APPROACH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN PRE FRONTAL SOUTHERLY FLOW, BUT THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS MIGHT
REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN
AVERAGE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
BASED ON OUR LOCAL FORECAST APPLICATION USING A 3 FOOT WAVES/8
SECOND PERIOD AND SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND 12 KNOTS, WE WILL CONTINUE
WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR NEW JERSEY AND LOW FOR
DELAWARE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE CHART BELOW SHOWS RAINFALL STATISTICS AT OUR FOUR BIG CLIMATE
SITES THRU 6/29. THE COLUMNS ARE BROKEN DOWN BY SITE, "POR" (HOW
FAR RECORDS DATE BACK), JUNE 2015 RAINFALL, NORMAL JUNE RAINFALL,
JUNE 2015 RAINFALL RANKING, AS WELL AS THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.

SITE    POR     JUNE    NORMAL    RANK   WETTEST

ILG     1894    12.46    3.50      2ND     13.66 (2013)
ACY     1874     8.04    2.81      2ND      8.45 (1920)
ABE     1922     7.02    3.86      6TH     10.51 (1938)
PHL     1872     7.23    3.08     10TH     10.56 (2013)

AT THIS TIME, IT HAS BEEN THE SECOND WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD IN
BOTH WILMINGTON AND ATLANTIC CITY. WITH TODAY BEING THE LAST DAY
IN THE MONTH, CURRENT FORECASTS DO NOT FAVOR EITHER SITE BREAKING
THEIR ALL-TIME JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. HOWEVER, IT WOULD ONLY TAKE
A HEAVY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO CLOSE THE GAP, WHICH IS 0.41
INCHES IN ATLANTIC CITY AND 1.2 INCHES IN WILMINGTON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI
NEAR TERM...FRANCK/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...FRANCK



000
FXUS61 KPHI 301430
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1030 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS PREDICTED TO LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHEAST INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. IT WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
THAT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS
THROUGH OUR REGION ON INDEPENDENCE DAY. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD FOLLOW ON SUNDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE -SHRA WITH AN OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF
THUNDER MOVING THRU THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY AS ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRECEDE A WARM FRONT INVOF DE BAY
ATTM. AS MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL IN RESPONSE TO
S/WV TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...THE WM FRONT WILL MAKE
SLOW PROGRESS NORTH THRU THE DAY. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY`S
FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION.

THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. APPROACHING S/WV WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE OF LIFT...AS
BEST FORCING OCCURS NEAR THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AMPLE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE...AS DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR ADVECTS IN
ALOFT. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS INSTABILITY...AS LAPSE RATES ARE
LESS THAN IDEAL...WITH PERHAPS EVEN SOME CAPPING. SAT TRENDS
ALSO INDICATE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. THEREFORE ML CAPE MAY
HAVE A TOUGH TIME REACHING 1 KJ.

ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS LIMITED...BULK SHEAR IS 40 KNOTS NW OF
I-95 ALONG W/ AMPLE LOW-LEVEL HELICITY...AS 0-1 KM SHEAR REACHES
20 KNOTS. SO THERE IS SVR POTENTIAL TODAY MAINLY NW OF I-95...ESP
THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY...W/ THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL GIVEN INVERTED-V PROFILES AND FAVORABLE WBZ
HEIGHTS. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH ACTIVITY NEAR THE WARM FRONT...
WHERE A SUPERCELL CANNOT BE RULED OUT...PARTICULARLY IF GREATER
INSTABILITY IS REALIZED. FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO A CONCERN MAINLY
NW OF I-95...WHERE CELLS WILL HAVE A TENDANCY TO TRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA
AND ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES/VORTICITY IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE COULD BE A BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR
SOME AREAS DURING A PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT IN BETWEEN SHORT WAVES.
HOWEVER, WE EXPECT ACTIVITY TO INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD THE VERY EARLY
MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. THERE REMAINS SOME INSTABILITY THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND BULK SHEAR MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT, SO THERE
REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG STORMS.

LOWS TONIGHT ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE WAS ABOUT A 50/50 SPLIT BETWEEN THE GFS AND WRF-NMMB
INITIALIZATION AT 500MB. FARTHER DOWNWARD, THE WRF-NMMB LOOKED
BETTER. DP/DTING THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE LOOKS STRONGER, WHILE THE
ERN NOAM TROF IS BROADER. WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON A CONTINUATION
OF THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN, THEY VARY ON DETAILS AND
CONTINUE TO FIND THEMSELVES IN ODD POSITIONS WITH THE NORMALLY
SLOWER ECMWF AND WRF-NMMB CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE OTHER
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. AS PER PMDHMD WE ARE LEANING AWAY FROM THESE
FASTER RESULTS AND GOING MORE TOWARD CONTINUITY. REGARDLESS WITH
THE CURRENT PATTERN REMAINING IN PLACE IT IS TOUGH TO CONFIDENTLY
PREDICT MUCH PROLONGED DRY WEATHER.

THE START OF THE LONG TERM DOES HAVE DECENT MODELING CONSENSUS.
WHILE THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA,
SHORT WAVES INTERACTING WITH THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD RE-GENERATE
MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS RATHER QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLD
POCKET ALOFT COUPLED WITH NEAR NEUTRAL LOWER LEVEL THERMAL
FIELDS KEEP PREDICTED TOTAL TOTALS AT OR AROUND 50C.
APPROPRIATELY MIXED LAYER CAPES (ABOVE 1000J IN DELMARVA) PEAK
DURING THE MORNING AND DECREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS
THE COLD POCKET GETS SHEARED. HIGHEST POPS ARE IN THE MORNING WITH
A TRAIL OFF AS THE DAY CONTINUES. STRONGER SHEAR AND CAPE ARE
DECOUPLED AND (CAPE) MAY NOT RAMP UP FAST ENOUGH GIVEN TIMING OF
FEATURES FOR SEVERE WHICH LOOKS BETTER NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA. AIR
MASS SUPPORTIVE OF MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MAX TEMPS MOST OF OUR CWA.

GIVEN THE BRIEF FLATTENING OF THE TROF ALOFT, WE DID NOT CARRY
MUCH OF A CHANCE OF THUNDER INTO THE NIGHT AND NO POPS ANYWHERE
OVERNIGHT. STAT GUIDANCE MINS LOOK REASONABLE.

ON THURSDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF
OUR CWA. FROM HERE THE TIMING OF IMPULSES ON THE FRONT START TO
DIVERGE. REGARDLESS, THE BOUNDARY IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO ACT AS A
TRIGGER WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE (THUS HIGHER POPS) IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF UR CWA. MIXED LAYER CAPES IN DELMARVA REACH THE LOWER
1000S, BUT ARE RELATIVELY LOW FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. THUNDER
CHANCES MAY BE OVERSTATED. THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST A 2-3F DROP OFF
IN MAX TEMPS FROM WED.

NOW THE MODELS REALLY START DIVERGING FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
WITH THE GFS AND CAN GGEM EMPHASIZING FRIDAY WITH THE ECMWF AND
WRF THURSDAY NIGHT. WHERE MODELS AGREE IS THAT INSTABILITY IN OUR
CWA IS MODEST AND THERE ARE HIGHER CHANCES SOUTH THAN NORTH.
TIMING RESOLUTION IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO FORECAST DRY WEATHER FOR
EITHER PERIOD. WE DID STEER HIGHER POPS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
GEFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE OP GFS.

IT DOES NOT BECOME MUCH CLEARER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH THE ECMWF
FORECASTING A DRY DAY AND THE CAN GGEM HAVING A TOTAL WASHOUT. MOST
MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING A SFC LOW ON THE LEVEL OF LAST SATURDAY,
SO FOR NOW WE KEPT THE FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY CLOSE TO
CONTINUITY AND SUMMER CLIMO AND NOT SOUND LIKE A TOTAL LOSS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY REMAIN CLOSE TO CONTINUITY. WITH BOTH THE GFS AND EC
DRY WE HAVE SUNDAY PREDICTED TO BE THE BETTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND
DAYS AND KEPT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR MONDAY AS THE
WARM FRONT IS PREDICTED TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TAF SITES TODAY,
ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND LOWER THROUGH THE
DAY. SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON. WITH INSTABILITY INCREASING TODAY, THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO TEMPORARILY REDUCE VSBYS AND/OR CIGS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST, AND COULD GUST AROUND 15-20 KNOTS
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT, ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO TEMPORARILY REDUCE VSBYS AND/OR CIGS. THERE IS A BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR LOWER VSBYS OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE
AREA. WIND GUSTS WILL DROP OFF BY SUNSET, WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW
REMAINING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR WITH ANY PCPN CHANCES DECREASING
QUICKLY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT SOME
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS DURING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
IMPACT OUTLOOKED TO BE GREATER FOR SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WATERS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT
TIMES. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 3-4 FEET. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HIGHER
WINDS AND WAVES COULD OCCUR WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEAS ON THE OCEAN MAY APPROACH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN PRE FRONTAL SOUTHERLY FLOW, BUT THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS MIGHT
REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN
AVERAGE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
BASED ON OUR LOCAL FORECAST APPLICATION USING A 3 FOOT WAVES/8
SECOND PERIOD AND SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND 12 KNOTS, WE WILL CONTINUE
WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR NEW JERSEY AND LOW FOR
DELAWARE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE CHART BELOW SHOWS RAINFALL STATISTICS AT OUR FOUR BIG CLIMATE
SITES THRU 6/29. THE COLUMNS ARE BROKEN DOWN BY SITE, "POR" (HOW
FAR RECORDS DATE BACK), JUNE 2015 RAINFALL, NORMAL JUNE RAINFALL,
JUNE 2015 RAINFALL RANKING, AS WELL AS THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.

SITE    POR     JUNE    NORMAL    RANK   WETTEST

ILG     1894    12.46    3.50      2ND     13.66 (2013)
ACY     1874     8.04    2.81      2ND      8.45 (1920)
ABE     1922     7.02    3.86      6TH     10.51 (1938)
PHL     1872     7.23    3.08     10TH     10.56 (2013)

AT THIS TIME, IT HAS BEEN THE SECOND WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD IN
BOTH WILMINGTON AND ATLANTIC CITY. WITH TODAY BEING THE LAST DAY
IN THE MONTH, CURRENT FORECASTS DO NOT FAVOR EITHER SITE BREAKING
THEIR ALL-TIME JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. HOWEVER, IT WOULD ONLY TAKE
A HEAVY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO CLOSE THE GAP, WHICH IS 0.41
INCHES IN ATLANTIC CITY AND 1.2 INCHES IN WILMINGTON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI
NEAR TERM...FRANCK/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...FRANCK




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301407
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1007 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND AND DRIER
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATES MADE THIS MORNING ARE RATHER MINIMAL AS THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN OHIO AS A
SHORTWAVE PIVOTS TOWARD THE REGION. HAVE UPPED THE POPS BASED ON
THE LATEST HI RES MODEL DATA WHICH HAS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE BLOSSOMING IN WEAK INSTABILITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION...BUT BULK SHEAR OF 30KTS
COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONGER CELLS. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS...WITH CLOUDS BEING THE LIMITING FACTOR.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH AND CLOUD COVER IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. ITS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOCUSED ALONG THIS
FEATURE...BUT AT THIS TIME THE CHANCE IS MINIMAL AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION CAPPING OFF ANY
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY.

GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY SOUTH WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
FEATURE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING. WITH DRIER AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA CLOSEST TO THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE NOT NEEDED TO MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT COMPARED TO
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A
BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME DRY DAYS. HARD TO PINPOINT ANY
PARTICULAR POINT WHEN RAIN IS LIKELY...BUT SO FAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT SHIFT MUCH DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND
LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY
DAWN...WITH ZZV/FKL EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS. WILL NEED
TO WATCH POTENTIAL OF LIFR FOG CREEPING INTO ZZV FROM THE
WEST...BUT REMAINING TERMINALS DO NOT APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH OF A
FOG THREAT. CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY RISE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL HELP TO PROMOTE WIND
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR
LOCATION TO ADD PREVAILING PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME...SO HAVE
STUCK WITH VCTS. WIND GUSTS AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD DROP
AFTER SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A ROUND OF IFR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK FRONT PASSES...AND AGAIN
ON SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE LOW PRESSURE

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301407
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1007 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND AND DRIER
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATES MADE THIS MORNING ARE RATHER MINIMAL AS THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN OHIO AS A
SHORTWAVE PIVOTS TOWARD THE REGION. HAVE UPPED THE POPS BASED ON
THE LATEST HI RES MODEL DATA WHICH HAS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE BLOSSOMING IN WEAK INSTABILITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION...BUT BULK SHEAR OF 30KTS
COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONGER CELLS. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS...WITH CLOUDS BEING THE LIMITING FACTOR.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH AND CLOUD COVER IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. ITS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOCUSED ALONG THIS
FEATURE...BUT AT THIS TIME THE CHANCE IS MINIMAL AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION CAPPING OFF ANY
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY.

GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY SOUTH WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
FEATURE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING. WITH DRIER AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA CLOSEST TO THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE NOT NEEDED TO MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT COMPARED TO
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A
BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME DRY DAYS. HARD TO PINPOINT ANY
PARTICULAR POINT WHEN RAIN IS LIKELY...BUT SO FAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT SHIFT MUCH DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND
LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY
DAWN...WITH ZZV/FKL EXPECTE