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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 062355
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
655 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT AS A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THIS EVENING...AND
AS WARM ADVECTION BEGINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY AFFECTED DEPENDING ON DECOUPLING. HAVE
MAINTAINED LOWER READINGS AS THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...THOUGH IF
LIMITED MIXING OCCURS READINGS COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER.

INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF A WEAK GREAT LAKES REGION SHORTWAVE. MODEL PROGS AND
UPPER AIR CHARTS UPSTREAM SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS
WAVE...SO MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF PIT WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT IS PROGGED.
TEMPS SHOULD REACH ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
SATURDAY...THOUGH WILL STILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...AND MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RELEGATED TO JUST BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
ALONG THE NORTH.

DEEPER MID-LEVEL WAVE PASSING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WILL REINFORCE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING SOUTH OF LAKE
ERIE AND DAMMED UP AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR EAST.
MEANWHILE...MOISTURE ABOVE 700MB IS TRANSIENT AND MOVES QUICKLY
EAST OF THE AREA. THINKING THAT REALLY LIGHT SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION TYPE. BUT...WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE CONFINED
TO THE LOW-LEVELS AND THE TOP OF THAT MOISTURE AROUND -8C...THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE EXISTS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
SURROUNDING EXTENT OF MOISTURE AND TIMING...SO CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE GRIDS. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS WITH FUTURE RUNS OF HIGHER-RES MODELS.

FLOW BEGINS TO GO MORE ZONAL TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE UNDER MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH GENERAL VFR OVERNIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY WITH CIGS DETERIORATING TO LOW MVFR AROUND 12Z
NORTHERN PORTS SPREADING SOUTH INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. A STRAY SNOW
SHOWER POSSIBLE NORTHERN PORTS BUT COVERAGE NOT WORTH MENTIONING IN
TAFS AT THIS TIME.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY...WITH GENERAL VFR INTO MID
WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 062355
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
655 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT AS A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THIS EVENING...AND
AS WARM ADVECTION BEGINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY AFFECTED DEPENDING ON DECOUPLING. HAVE
MAINTAINED LOWER READINGS AS THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...THOUGH IF
LIMITED MIXING OCCURS READINGS COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER.

INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF A WEAK GREAT LAKES REGION SHORTWAVE. MODEL PROGS AND
UPPER AIR CHARTS UPSTREAM SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS
WAVE...SO MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF PIT WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT IS PROGGED.
TEMPS SHOULD REACH ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
SATURDAY...THOUGH WILL STILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...AND MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RELEGATED TO JUST BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
ALONG THE NORTH.

DEEPER MID-LEVEL WAVE PASSING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WILL REINFORCE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING SOUTH OF LAKE
ERIE AND DAMMED UP AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR EAST.
MEANWHILE...MOISTURE ABOVE 700MB IS TRANSIENT AND MOVES QUICKLY
EAST OF THE AREA. THINKING THAT REALLY LIGHT SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION TYPE. BUT...WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE CONFINED
TO THE LOW-LEVELS AND THE TOP OF THAT MOISTURE AROUND -8C...THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE EXISTS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
SURROUNDING EXTENT OF MOISTURE AND TIMING...SO CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE GRIDS. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS WITH FUTURE RUNS OF HIGHER-RES MODELS.

FLOW BEGINS TO GO MORE ZONAL TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE UNDER MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH GENERAL VFR OVERNIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY WITH CIGS DETERIORATING TO LOW MVFR AROUND 12Z
NORTHERN PORTS SPREADING SOUTH INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. A STRAY SNOW
SHOWER POSSIBLE NORTHERN PORTS BUT COVERAGE NOT WORTH MENTIONING IN
TAFS AT THIS TIME.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY...WITH GENERAL VFR INTO MID
WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 062355
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
655 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT AS A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THIS EVENING...AND
AS WARM ADVECTION BEGINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY AFFECTED DEPENDING ON DECOUPLING. HAVE
MAINTAINED LOWER READINGS AS THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...THOUGH IF
LIMITED MIXING OCCURS READINGS COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER.

INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF A WEAK GREAT LAKES REGION SHORTWAVE. MODEL PROGS AND
UPPER AIR CHARTS UPSTREAM SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS
WAVE...SO MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF PIT WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT IS PROGGED.
TEMPS SHOULD REACH ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
SATURDAY...THOUGH WILL STILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...AND MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RELEGATED TO JUST BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
ALONG THE NORTH.

DEEPER MID-LEVEL WAVE PASSING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WILL REINFORCE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING SOUTH OF LAKE
ERIE AND DAMMED UP AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR EAST.
MEANWHILE...MOISTURE ABOVE 700MB IS TRANSIENT AND MOVES QUICKLY
EAST OF THE AREA. THINKING THAT REALLY LIGHT SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION TYPE. BUT...WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE CONFINED
TO THE LOW-LEVELS AND THE TOP OF THAT MOISTURE AROUND -8C...THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE EXISTS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
SURROUNDING EXTENT OF MOISTURE AND TIMING...SO CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE GRIDS. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS WITH FUTURE RUNS OF HIGHER-RES MODELS.

FLOW BEGINS TO GO MORE ZONAL TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE UNDER MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH GENERAL VFR OVERNIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY WITH CIGS DETERIORATING TO LOW MVFR AROUND 12Z
NORTHERN PORTS SPREADING SOUTH INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. A STRAY SNOW
SHOWER POSSIBLE NORTHERN PORTS BUT COVERAGE NOT WORTH MENTIONING IN
TAFS AT THIS TIME.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY...WITH GENERAL VFR INTO MID
WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 062355
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
655 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT AS A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THIS EVENING...AND
AS WARM ADVECTION BEGINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY AFFECTED DEPENDING ON DECOUPLING. HAVE
MAINTAINED LOWER READINGS AS THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...THOUGH IF
LIMITED MIXING OCCURS READINGS COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER.

INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF A WEAK GREAT LAKES REGION SHORTWAVE. MODEL PROGS AND
UPPER AIR CHARTS UPSTREAM SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS
WAVE...SO MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF PIT WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT IS PROGGED.
TEMPS SHOULD REACH ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
SATURDAY...THOUGH WILL STILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...AND MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RELEGATED TO JUST BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
ALONG THE NORTH.

DEEPER MID-LEVEL WAVE PASSING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WILL REINFORCE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING SOUTH OF LAKE
ERIE AND DAMMED UP AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR EAST.
MEANWHILE...MOISTURE ABOVE 700MB IS TRANSIENT AND MOVES QUICKLY
EAST OF THE AREA. THINKING THAT REALLY LIGHT SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION TYPE. BUT...WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE CONFINED
TO THE LOW-LEVELS AND THE TOP OF THAT MOISTURE AROUND -8C...THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE EXISTS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
SURROUNDING EXTENT OF MOISTURE AND TIMING...SO CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE GRIDS. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS WITH FUTURE RUNS OF HIGHER-RES MODELS.

FLOW BEGINS TO GO MORE ZONAL TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE UNDER MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH GENERAL VFR OVERNIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY WITH CIGS DETERIORATING TO LOW MVFR AROUND 12Z
NORTHERN PORTS SPREADING SOUTH INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. A STRAY SNOW
SHOWER POSSIBLE NORTHERN PORTS BUT COVERAGE NOT WORTH MENTIONING IN
TAFS AT THIS TIME.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY...WITH GENERAL VFR INTO MID
WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






  [top]

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 062303
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
603 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RECORD LOW MAX TEMP WAS SET AT ECG TODAY...BOTH ORF AND SBY TIED
THEIR RECORD LOW MAX TMPS. SEE RERECG/RERORF/RERSBY FOR DETAILS.

PVS DSCN:
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO THE INTERIOR
NORTHEAST, WITH A SFC RIDGE EXTENDING E-NE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP ALONG THE
COAST OVERNIGHT, ALLOWING FOR CLEAR AND UNSEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS. MANY LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
TEENS...WHICH AGAIN ARE NEARLY -2 ST DEV FROM THE SEASONAL MEAN.

INCREASING ZONAL FLOW THIS WEEKEND WILL PUSH THE ARCTIC HIGH WELL
OFFSHORE. ADDITIONALLY ANY NRN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL STAY WELL N OF
THE MID ATLANTIC. SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A SUBSTANTIAL
MODERATING TREND...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONAL NORMALS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS SATURDAY RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO
LOW 50S OVER INTERIOR VA AND NE NC...WITH LOW/MID 40S OVER THE ERN
SHORE AND COASTAL SE VA/NE NC. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE
MILDER AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. SKY COVER SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SAT...WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK CHARACTERIZED BY
A GRADUAL WARMUP IN TEMPS SUN-MON, THOUGH TEMPS STILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. SPLIT FLOW SETUP CONTINUES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...W/NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY REMAINS
WELL NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AS SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONFINED TO THE 4 CORNERS/SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS REGION INTO NW MEXICO. DO HAVE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY
SUNDAY NIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA, AS THE
SOUTHWEST TROUGH WILL EJECT SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT WILL
SCOOT ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MID-SOUTH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AS
THIS ENERGY PROGRERSSES EAST, IT`LL SPREAD SOME LIGHT RAIN/SCT
SHRAS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. DO TO
LOW CHCS FOR MEASURING, WL STICK WITH NO HIGHER THAN A 20% POP
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER. REMAINING CLOUDY
THROUGH MONDAY, WITH POPS INCREASING BY LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AHEAD OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL PIECE OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY, WHICH SHOULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPTATION FROM SW TO
NE TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

FOR TEMPS, THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATING AFOREMENTIONED WARMUP FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. WENT TOWARDS THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE ON
SUNDAY WITH SFC HIGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. HIGHS IN THE MID
50S NORTH TO NEAR 60 SOUTH (EXCEPTION BEING UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50
ALONG ATLANTIC COAST OF EASTERN SHORE). GIVEN CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS, WENT TOWARD THE LOWER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE ON
MONDAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY SIMILAR TO
THOSE OF SUNDAY...U50S TO NEAR 60 SOUTH...LOW TO MID 50S NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
NORTHWARD FROM THE GOMEX ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...EVENTUALLY PUSHING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER
TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...SOME DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIFT NWRD
INTO THE REGION...BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ON TUESDAY..ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN AREAS. THE STALLED BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE SE WEDNESDAY
FOR LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD BY THURSDAY FOR
DRY WX. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER GOMEX SYSTEM TO BRING
RAIN BACK TO THE AREA NEXT FRIDAY. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
30S TO LWR 40S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
ON TUE...TO THE LOW/MID 50S TO LWR 60S WED AND THU. COOLING BACK
INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS WILL BE FOUND AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH SOME CLOUDS NR 3K
FT COMING OFF THE OCEAN NR KSBY ATTM. SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE
W WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO DIMINISH THIS AFTN AND ESPECIALLY TNGT
AS THE HI SLIDES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.

DRY WX AND VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE WEEKEND WITH THE HI
REMAINING IN THE VICINITY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN MON
NIGHT/TUE WITH THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 3 PM...THE ONLY REMAINING SCA WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS WHERE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY FALL BELOW 5 FT THIS
EVENING...PROBABLY TAKING UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT FOR OBX CURRITUCK.
N-NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO BETWEEN 5-15 KT AS WELL. BENIGN MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING IN THE VICINITY AND SLOWLY SLIDING OFFSHORE. THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUE. SCA`S ARE NOT
EXPECTED ATTM...EXCEPT POTENTIAL FOR ~5 FT SEAS ALONG THE NORTHERN
OBX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR BREMO BLUFF / RICHMOND WESTHAM
ON THE JAMES RIVER AND LAWRENCEVILLE ON THE MEHERRIN RIVER. SEE
LATEST FLWAKQ / FLSAKQ FOR DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH SEBRELL
ON THE NOTTOWAY RIVER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY 3/7:
 RIC...12 IN 1960
 ORF...17 IN 1899
 SBY...11 IN 1960
 ECG...17 IN 1960

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...MAS/DAP
MARINE...JDM
HYDROLOGY...MPR/ESS
CLIMATE...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 062303
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
603 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RECORD LOW MAX TEMP WAS SET AT ECG TODAY...BOTH ORF AND SBY TIED
THEIR RECORD LOW MAX TMPS. SEE RERECG/RERORF/RERSBY FOR DETAILS.

PVS DSCN:
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO THE INTERIOR
NORTHEAST, WITH A SFC RIDGE EXTENDING E-NE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP ALONG THE
COAST OVERNIGHT, ALLOWING FOR CLEAR AND UNSEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS. MANY LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
TEENS...WHICH AGAIN ARE NEARLY -2 ST DEV FROM THE SEASONAL MEAN.

INCREASING ZONAL FLOW THIS WEEKEND WILL PUSH THE ARCTIC HIGH WELL
OFFSHORE. ADDITIONALLY ANY NRN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL STAY WELL N OF
THE MID ATLANTIC. SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A SUBSTANTIAL
MODERATING TREND...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONAL NORMALS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS SATURDAY RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO
LOW 50S OVER INTERIOR VA AND NE NC...WITH LOW/MID 40S OVER THE ERN
SHORE AND COASTAL SE VA/NE NC. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE
MILDER AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. SKY COVER SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SAT...WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK CHARACTERIZED BY
A GRADUAL WARMUP IN TEMPS SUN-MON, THOUGH TEMPS STILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. SPLIT FLOW SETUP CONTINUES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...W/NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY REMAINS
WELL NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AS SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONFINED TO THE 4 CORNERS/SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS REGION INTO NW MEXICO. DO HAVE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY
SUNDAY NIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA, AS THE
SOUTHWEST TROUGH WILL EJECT SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT WILL
SCOOT ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MID-SOUTH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AS
THIS ENERGY PROGRERSSES EAST, IT`LL SPREAD SOME LIGHT RAIN/SCT
SHRAS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. DO TO
LOW CHCS FOR MEASURING, WL STICK WITH NO HIGHER THAN A 20% POP
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER. REMAINING CLOUDY
THROUGH MONDAY, WITH POPS INCREASING BY LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AHEAD OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL PIECE OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY, WHICH SHOULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPTATION FROM SW TO
NE TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

FOR TEMPS, THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATING AFOREMENTIONED WARMUP FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. WENT TOWARDS THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE ON
SUNDAY WITH SFC HIGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. HIGHS IN THE MID
50S NORTH TO NEAR 60 SOUTH (EXCEPTION BEING UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50
ALONG ATLANTIC COAST OF EASTERN SHORE). GIVEN CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS, WENT TOWARD THE LOWER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE ON
MONDAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY SIMILAR TO
THOSE OF SUNDAY...U50S TO NEAR 60 SOUTH...LOW TO MID 50S NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
NORTHWARD FROM THE GOMEX ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...EVENTUALLY PUSHING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER
TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...SOME DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIFT NWRD
INTO THE REGION...BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ON TUESDAY..ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN AREAS. THE STALLED BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE SE WEDNESDAY
FOR LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD BY THURSDAY FOR
DRY WX. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER GOMEX SYSTEM TO BRING
RAIN BACK TO THE AREA NEXT FRIDAY. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
30S TO LWR 40S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
ON TUE...TO THE LOW/MID 50S TO LWR 60S WED AND THU. COOLING BACK
INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS WILL BE FOUND AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH SOME CLOUDS NR 3K
FT COMING OFF THE OCEAN NR KSBY ATTM. SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE
W WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO DIMINISH THIS AFTN AND ESPECIALLY TNGT
AS THE HI SLIDES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.

DRY WX AND VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE WEEKEND WITH THE HI
REMAINING IN THE VICINITY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN MON
NIGHT/TUE WITH THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 3 PM...THE ONLY REMAINING SCA WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS WHERE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY FALL BELOW 5 FT THIS
EVENING...PROBABLY TAKING UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT FOR OBX CURRITUCK.
N-NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO BETWEEN 5-15 KT AS WELL. BENIGN MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING IN THE VICINITY AND SLOWLY SLIDING OFFSHORE. THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUE. SCA`S ARE NOT
EXPECTED ATTM...EXCEPT POTENTIAL FOR ~5 FT SEAS ALONG THE NORTHERN
OBX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR BREMO BLUFF / RICHMOND WESTHAM
ON THE JAMES RIVER AND LAWRENCEVILLE ON THE MEHERRIN RIVER. SEE
LATEST FLWAKQ / FLSAKQ FOR DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH SEBRELL
ON THE NOTTOWAY RIVER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY 3/7:
 RIC...12 IN 1960
 ORF...17 IN 1899
 SBY...11 IN 1960
 ECG...17 IN 1960

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...MAS/DAP
MARINE...JDM
HYDROLOGY...MPR/ESS
CLIMATE...AKQ






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 062303
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
603 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RECORD LOW MAX TEMP WAS SET AT ECG TODAY...BOTH ORF AND SBY TIED
THEIR RECORD LOW MAX TMPS. SEE RERECG/RERORF/RERSBY FOR DETAILS.

PVS DSCN:
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO THE INTERIOR
NORTHEAST, WITH A SFC RIDGE EXTENDING E-NE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP ALONG THE
COAST OVERNIGHT, ALLOWING FOR CLEAR AND UNSEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS. MANY LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
TEENS...WHICH AGAIN ARE NEARLY -2 ST DEV FROM THE SEASONAL MEAN.

INCREASING ZONAL FLOW THIS WEEKEND WILL PUSH THE ARCTIC HIGH WELL
OFFSHORE. ADDITIONALLY ANY NRN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL STAY WELL N OF
THE MID ATLANTIC. SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A SUBSTANTIAL
MODERATING TREND...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONAL NORMALS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS SATURDAY RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO
LOW 50S OVER INTERIOR VA AND NE NC...WITH LOW/MID 40S OVER THE ERN
SHORE AND COASTAL SE VA/NE NC. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE
MILDER AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. SKY COVER SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SAT...WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK CHARACTERIZED BY
A GRADUAL WARMUP IN TEMPS SUN-MON, THOUGH TEMPS STILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. SPLIT FLOW SETUP CONTINUES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...W/NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY REMAINS
WELL NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AS SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONFINED TO THE 4 CORNERS/SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS REGION INTO NW MEXICO. DO HAVE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY
SUNDAY NIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA, AS THE
SOUTHWEST TROUGH WILL EJECT SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT WILL
SCOOT ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MID-SOUTH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AS
THIS ENERGY PROGRERSSES EAST, IT`LL SPREAD SOME LIGHT RAIN/SCT
SHRAS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. DO TO
LOW CHCS FOR MEASURING, WL STICK WITH NO HIGHER THAN A 20% POP
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER. REMAINING CLOUDY
THROUGH MONDAY, WITH POPS INCREASING BY LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AHEAD OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL PIECE OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY, WHICH SHOULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPTATION FROM SW TO
NE TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

FOR TEMPS, THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATING AFOREMENTIONED WARMUP FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. WENT TOWARDS THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE ON
SUNDAY WITH SFC HIGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. HIGHS IN THE MID
50S NORTH TO NEAR 60 SOUTH (EXCEPTION BEING UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50
ALONG ATLANTIC COAST OF EASTERN SHORE). GIVEN CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS, WENT TOWARD THE LOWER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE ON
MONDAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY SIMILAR TO
THOSE OF SUNDAY...U50S TO NEAR 60 SOUTH...LOW TO MID 50S NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
NORTHWARD FROM THE GOMEX ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...EVENTUALLY PUSHING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER
TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...SOME DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIFT NWRD
INTO THE REGION...BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ON TUESDAY..ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN AREAS. THE STALLED BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE SE WEDNESDAY
FOR LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD BY THURSDAY FOR
DRY WX. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER GOMEX SYSTEM TO BRING
RAIN BACK TO THE AREA NEXT FRIDAY. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
30S TO LWR 40S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
ON TUE...TO THE LOW/MID 50S TO LWR 60S WED AND THU. COOLING BACK
INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS WILL BE FOUND AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH SOME CLOUDS NR 3K
FT COMING OFF THE OCEAN NR KSBY ATTM. SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE
W WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO DIMINISH THIS AFTN AND ESPECIALLY TNGT
AS THE HI SLIDES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.

DRY WX AND VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE WEEKEND WITH THE HI
REMAINING IN THE VICINITY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN MON
NIGHT/TUE WITH THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 3 PM...THE ONLY REMAINING SCA WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS WHERE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY FALL BELOW 5 FT THIS
EVENING...PROBABLY TAKING UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT FOR OBX CURRITUCK.
N-NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO BETWEEN 5-15 KT AS WELL. BENIGN MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING IN THE VICINITY AND SLOWLY SLIDING OFFSHORE. THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUE. SCA`S ARE NOT
EXPECTED ATTM...EXCEPT POTENTIAL FOR ~5 FT SEAS ALONG THE NORTHERN
OBX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR BREMO BLUFF / RICHMOND WESTHAM
ON THE JAMES RIVER AND LAWRENCEVILLE ON THE MEHERRIN RIVER. SEE
LATEST FLWAKQ / FLSAKQ FOR DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH SEBRELL
ON THE NOTTOWAY RIVER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY 3/7:
 RIC...12 IN 1960
 ORF...17 IN 1899
 SBY...11 IN 1960
 ECG...17 IN 1960

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...MAS/DAP
MARINE...JDM
HYDROLOGY...MPR/ESS
CLIMATE...AKQ






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 062303
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
603 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RECORD LOW MAX TEMP WAS SET AT ECG TODAY...BOTH ORF AND SBY TIED
THEIR RECORD LOW MAX TMPS. SEE RERECG/RERORF/RERSBY FOR DETAILS.

PVS DSCN:
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO THE INTERIOR
NORTHEAST, WITH A SFC RIDGE EXTENDING E-NE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP ALONG THE
COAST OVERNIGHT, ALLOWING FOR CLEAR AND UNSEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS. MANY LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
TEENS...WHICH AGAIN ARE NEARLY -2 ST DEV FROM THE SEASONAL MEAN.

INCREASING ZONAL FLOW THIS WEEKEND WILL PUSH THE ARCTIC HIGH WELL
OFFSHORE. ADDITIONALLY ANY NRN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL STAY WELL N OF
THE MID ATLANTIC. SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A SUBSTANTIAL
MODERATING TREND...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONAL NORMALS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS SATURDAY RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO
LOW 50S OVER INTERIOR VA AND NE NC...WITH LOW/MID 40S OVER THE ERN
SHORE AND COASTAL SE VA/NE NC. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE
MILDER AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. SKY COVER SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SAT...WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK CHARACTERIZED BY
A GRADUAL WARMUP IN TEMPS SUN-MON, THOUGH TEMPS STILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. SPLIT FLOW SETUP CONTINUES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...W/NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY REMAINS
WELL NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AS SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONFINED TO THE 4 CORNERS/SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS REGION INTO NW MEXICO. DO HAVE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY
SUNDAY NIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA, AS THE
SOUTHWEST TROUGH WILL EJECT SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT WILL
SCOOT ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MID-SOUTH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AS
THIS ENERGY PROGRERSSES EAST, IT`LL SPREAD SOME LIGHT RAIN/SCT
SHRAS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. DO TO
LOW CHCS FOR MEASURING, WL STICK WITH NO HIGHER THAN A 20% POP
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER. REMAINING CLOUDY
THROUGH MONDAY, WITH POPS INCREASING BY LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AHEAD OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL PIECE OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY, WHICH SHOULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPTATION FROM SW TO
NE TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

FOR TEMPS, THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATING AFOREMENTIONED WARMUP FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. WENT TOWARDS THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE ON
SUNDAY WITH SFC HIGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. HIGHS IN THE MID
50S NORTH TO NEAR 60 SOUTH (EXCEPTION BEING UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50
ALONG ATLANTIC COAST OF EASTERN SHORE). GIVEN CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS, WENT TOWARD THE LOWER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE ON
MONDAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY SIMILAR TO
THOSE OF SUNDAY...U50S TO NEAR 60 SOUTH...LOW TO MID 50S NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
NORTHWARD FROM THE GOMEX ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...EVENTUALLY PUSHING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER
TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...SOME DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIFT NWRD
INTO THE REGION...BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ON TUESDAY..ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN AREAS. THE STALLED BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE SE WEDNESDAY
FOR LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD BY THURSDAY FOR
DRY WX. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER GOMEX SYSTEM TO BRING
RAIN BACK TO THE AREA NEXT FRIDAY. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
30S TO LWR 40S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
ON TUE...TO THE LOW/MID 50S TO LWR 60S WED AND THU. COOLING BACK
INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS WILL BE FOUND AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH SOME CLOUDS NR 3K
FT COMING OFF THE OCEAN NR KSBY ATTM. SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE
W WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO DIMINISH THIS AFTN AND ESPECIALLY TNGT
AS THE HI SLIDES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.

DRY WX AND VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE WEEKEND WITH THE HI
REMAINING IN THE VICINITY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN MON
NIGHT/TUE WITH THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 3 PM...THE ONLY REMAINING SCA WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS WHERE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY FALL BELOW 5 FT THIS
EVENING...PROBABLY TAKING UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT FOR OBX CURRITUCK.
N-NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO BETWEEN 5-15 KT AS WELL. BENIGN MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING IN THE VICINITY AND SLOWLY SLIDING OFFSHORE. THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUE. SCA`S ARE NOT
EXPECTED ATTM...EXCEPT POTENTIAL FOR ~5 FT SEAS ALONG THE NORTHERN
OBX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR BREMO BLUFF / RICHMOND WESTHAM
ON THE JAMES RIVER AND LAWRENCEVILLE ON THE MEHERRIN RIVER. SEE
LATEST FLWAKQ / FLSAKQ FOR DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH SEBRELL
ON THE NOTTOWAY RIVER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY 3/7:
 RIC...12 IN 1960
 ORF...17 IN 1899
 SBY...11 IN 1960
 ECG...17 IN 1960

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...MAS/DAP
MARINE...JDM
HYDROLOGY...MPR/ESS
CLIMATE...AKQ






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 062303
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
603 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RECORD LOW MAX TEMP WAS SET AT ECG TODAY...BOTH ORF AND SBY TIED
THEIR RECORD LOW MAX TMPS. SEE RERECG/RERORF/RERSBY FOR DETAILS.

PVS DSCN:
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO THE INTERIOR
NORTHEAST, WITH A SFC RIDGE EXTENDING E-NE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP ALONG THE
COAST OVERNIGHT, ALLOWING FOR CLEAR AND UNSEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS. MANY LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
TEENS...WHICH AGAIN ARE NEARLY -2 ST DEV FROM THE SEASONAL MEAN.

INCREASING ZONAL FLOW THIS WEEKEND WILL PUSH THE ARCTIC HIGH WELL
OFFSHORE. ADDITIONALLY ANY NRN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL STAY WELL N OF
THE MID ATLANTIC. SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A SUBSTANTIAL
MODERATING TREND...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONAL NORMALS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS SATURDAY RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO
LOW 50S OVER INTERIOR VA AND NE NC...WITH LOW/MID 40S OVER THE ERN
SHORE AND COASTAL SE VA/NE NC. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE
MILDER AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. SKY COVER SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SAT...WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK CHARACTERIZED BY
A GRADUAL WARMUP IN TEMPS SUN-MON, THOUGH TEMPS STILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. SPLIT FLOW SETUP CONTINUES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...W/NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY REMAINS
WELL NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AS SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONFINED TO THE 4 CORNERS/SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS REGION INTO NW MEXICO. DO HAVE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY
SUNDAY NIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA, AS THE
SOUTHWEST TROUGH WILL EJECT SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT WILL
SCOOT ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MID-SOUTH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AS
THIS ENERGY PROGRERSSES EAST, IT`LL SPREAD SOME LIGHT RAIN/SCT
SHRAS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. DO TO
LOW CHCS FOR MEASURING, WL STICK WITH NO HIGHER THAN A 20% POP
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER. REMAINING CLOUDY
THROUGH MONDAY, WITH POPS INCREASING BY LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AHEAD OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL PIECE OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY, WHICH SHOULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPTATION FROM SW TO
NE TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

FOR TEMPS, THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATING AFOREMENTIONED WARMUP FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. WENT TOWARDS THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE ON
SUNDAY WITH SFC HIGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. HIGHS IN THE MID
50S NORTH TO NEAR 60 SOUTH (EXCEPTION BEING UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50
ALONG ATLANTIC COAST OF EASTERN SHORE). GIVEN CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS, WENT TOWARD THE LOWER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE ON
MONDAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY SIMILAR TO
THOSE OF SUNDAY...U50S TO NEAR 60 SOUTH...LOW TO MID 50S NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
NORTHWARD FROM THE GOMEX ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...EVENTUALLY PUSHING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER
TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...SOME DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIFT NWRD
INTO THE REGION...BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ON TUESDAY..ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN AREAS. THE STALLED BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE SE WEDNESDAY
FOR LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD BY THURSDAY FOR
DRY WX. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER GOMEX SYSTEM TO BRING
RAIN BACK TO THE AREA NEXT FRIDAY. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
30S TO LWR 40S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
ON TUE...TO THE LOW/MID 50S TO LWR 60S WED AND THU. COOLING BACK
INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS WILL BE FOUND AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH SOME CLOUDS NR 3K
FT COMING OFF THE OCEAN NR KSBY ATTM. SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE
W WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO DIMINISH THIS AFTN AND ESPECIALLY TNGT
AS THE HI SLIDES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.

DRY WX AND VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE WEEKEND WITH THE HI
REMAINING IN THE VICINITY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN MON
NIGHT/TUE WITH THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 3 PM...THE ONLY REMAINING SCA WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS WHERE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY FALL BELOW 5 FT THIS
EVENING...PROBABLY TAKING UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT FOR OBX CURRITUCK.
N-NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO BETWEEN 5-15 KT AS WELL. BENIGN MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING IN THE VICINITY AND SLOWLY SLIDING OFFSHORE. THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUE. SCA`S ARE NOT
EXPECTED ATTM...EXCEPT POTENTIAL FOR ~5 FT SEAS ALONG THE NORTHERN
OBX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR BREMO BLUFF / RICHMOND WESTHAM
ON THE JAMES RIVER AND LAWRENCEVILLE ON THE MEHERRIN RIVER. SEE
LATEST FLWAKQ / FLSAKQ FOR DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH SEBRELL
ON THE NOTTOWAY RIVER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY 3/7:
 RIC...12 IN 1960
 ORF...17 IN 1899
 SBY...11 IN 1960
 ECG...17 IN 1960

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...MAS/DAP
MARINE...JDM
HYDROLOGY...MPR/ESS
CLIMATE...AKQ






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 062303
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
603 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RECORD LOW MAX TEMP WAS SET AT ECG TODAY...BOTH ORF AND SBY TIED
THEIR RECORD LOW MAX TMPS. SEE RERECG/RERORF/RERSBY FOR DETAILS.

PVS DSCN:
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO THE INTERIOR
NORTHEAST, WITH A SFC RIDGE EXTENDING E-NE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP ALONG THE
COAST OVERNIGHT, ALLOWING FOR CLEAR AND UNSEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS. MANY LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
TEENS...WHICH AGAIN ARE NEARLY -2 ST DEV FROM THE SEASONAL MEAN.

INCREASING ZONAL FLOW THIS WEEKEND WILL PUSH THE ARCTIC HIGH WELL
OFFSHORE. ADDITIONALLY ANY NRN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL STAY WELL N OF
THE MID ATLANTIC. SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A SUBSTANTIAL
MODERATING TREND...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONAL NORMALS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS SATURDAY RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO
LOW 50S OVER INTERIOR VA AND NE NC...WITH LOW/MID 40S OVER THE ERN
SHORE AND COASTAL SE VA/NE NC. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE
MILDER AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. SKY COVER SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SAT...WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK CHARACTERIZED BY
A GRADUAL WARMUP IN TEMPS SUN-MON, THOUGH TEMPS STILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. SPLIT FLOW SETUP CONTINUES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...W/NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY REMAINS
WELL NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AS SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONFINED TO THE 4 CORNERS/SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS REGION INTO NW MEXICO. DO HAVE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY
SUNDAY NIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA, AS THE
SOUTHWEST TROUGH WILL EJECT SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT WILL
SCOOT ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MID-SOUTH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AS
THIS ENERGY PROGRERSSES EAST, IT`LL SPREAD SOME LIGHT RAIN/SCT
SHRAS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. DO TO
LOW CHCS FOR MEASURING, WL STICK WITH NO HIGHER THAN A 20% POP
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER. REMAINING CLOUDY
THROUGH MONDAY, WITH POPS INCREASING BY LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AHEAD OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL PIECE OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY, WHICH SHOULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPTATION FROM SW TO
NE TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

FOR TEMPS, THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATING AFOREMENTIONED WARMUP FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. WENT TOWARDS THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE ON
SUNDAY WITH SFC HIGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. HIGHS IN THE MID
50S NORTH TO NEAR 60 SOUTH (EXCEPTION BEING UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50
ALONG ATLANTIC COAST OF EASTERN SHORE). GIVEN CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS, WENT TOWARD THE LOWER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE ON
MONDAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY SIMILAR TO
THOSE OF SUNDAY...U50S TO NEAR 60 SOUTH...LOW TO MID 50S NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
NORTHWARD FROM THE GOMEX ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...EVENTUALLY PUSHING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER
TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...SOME DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIFT NWRD
INTO THE REGION...BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ON TUESDAY..ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN AREAS. THE STALLED BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE SE WEDNESDAY
FOR LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD BY THURSDAY FOR
DRY WX. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER GOMEX SYSTEM TO BRING
RAIN BACK TO THE AREA NEXT FRIDAY. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
30S TO LWR 40S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
ON TUE...TO THE LOW/MID 50S TO LWR 60S WED AND THU. COOLING BACK
INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS WILL BE FOUND AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH SOME CLOUDS NR 3K
FT COMING OFF THE OCEAN NR KSBY ATTM. SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE
W WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO DIMINISH THIS AFTN AND ESPECIALLY TNGT
AS THE HI SLIDES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.

DRY WX AND VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE WEEKEND WITH THE HI
REMAINING IN THE VICINITY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN MON
NIGHT/TUE WITH THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 3 PM...THE ONLY REMAINING SCA WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS WHERE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY FALL BELOW 5 FT THIS
EVENING...PROBABLY TAKING UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT FOR OBX CURRITUCK.
N-NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO BETWEEN 5-15 KT AS WELL. BENIGN MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING IN THE VICINITY AND SLOWLY SLIDING OFFSHORE. THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUE. SCA`S ARE NOT
EXPECTED ATTM...EXCEPT POTENTIAL FOR ~5 FT SEAS ALONG THE NORTHERN
OBX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR BREMO BLUFF / RICHMOND WESTHAM
ON THE JAMES RIVER AND LAWRENCEVILLE ON THE MEHERRIN RIVER. SEE
LATEST FLWAKQ / FLSAKQ FOR DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH SEBRELL
ON THE NOTTOWAY RIVER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY 3/7:
 RIC...12 IN 1960
 ORF...17 IN 1899
 SBY...11 IN 1960
 ECG...17 IN 1960

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...MAS/DAP
MARINE...JDM
HYDROLOGY...MPR/ESS
CLIMATE...AKQ





  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPHI 062047
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
347 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AND
GRADUALLY WEAKENS. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN TRACK TO OUR
NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, PULLING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS
OUR REGION. LOW PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT TO OUR
SOUTHWEST LATE MONDAY, THEN TRACK TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
HOWEVER A WEAK FRONT MAY SLIDE BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10 MPH SHIFTING FROM
NORTHWEST TO WEST. THIS WILL SET-UP ANOTHER GOOD NIGHT FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH A SNOWCOVER IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
FALL OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY RISE SOME TOWARD SUNRISE WITH THE MORE
WESTERLY FLOW. OVERALL, WENT A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE MAV AND
MET OUTSIDE OF PHL BUT STAYED CLOSE TO THESE GUIDANCE SETS FOR OTHER
ELEMENTS. SOME RECORDS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION,
PLEASE SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY
SATURDAY. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS LOOK FAIRLY DRY ACROSS THE
REGION FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THE GFS AND RGEM INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME NON MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. HAVE ADDED
SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST IN THOSE AREAS. SOME WIND
GUSTS FROM 15-20 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS ENERGY EJECTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE
IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST. THIS RESULTS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
TURNING MORE ZONAL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THOUGH SHOULD RESULT IN A SURFACE LOW
TRACKING TO OUR SOUTH WITH PERHAPS OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION GETTING
INTO AT LEAST A PORTION OF OUR CWA TUESDAY. WE USED A MODEL BLEND
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, THEN WENT WITH THE 12Z WPC
GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. WE THEN MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS AFTER ADDITIONAL
COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A WEAK SHORT WAVE TRACKS TO OUR
NORTH WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED WITH MUCH OF THE LIFT TO OUR NORTH
AND ALSO CONFINED TO THE GREAT LAKES AREA. SOME WAA OCCURS AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE, THEN CAA ALOFT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR SUNDAY BEHIND THE
WEAK COLD FRONT. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS, THIS
LOOKS MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH EVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOWER CLOUDS FOR A TIME. WE MAINTAINED MORE
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS, WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS
/NORTHWEST/ FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT /THE AIRMASS
MAY REMAIN DRY OR THE FORCING WEAK ENOUGH TO NOT ALLOW PRECIPITATION
TO OCCUR/. OVERALL, ANY QPF WOULD BE RATHER LIGHT.

FOR MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER OUR
AREA, HOWEVER A SHORT WAVE ALOFT SHOULD GENERALLY GLANCE OUR CWA. AT
THE SURFACE, THIS IS REFLECTED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS MORE
PRONOUNCED TO OUR NORTH. THERE IS SOME WEAK WAA FORECAST TO OCCUR
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, HOWEVER BASED ON THE QUICK MOTION AND ALSO
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE SPELLS FOR A DRY SYSTEM SLIDING BY. WE
ONCE AGAIN PLACED SOME HIGHER CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH CLOSER TO
THE ACTUAL SHORT WAVE.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AND SOUTHEAST AS RIDGING BUILDS OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST. AS
THIS OCCURS, THE FLOW BACKS SOME ALLOWING THE WAA TO INCREASE SOME
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL FOCUS A WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH WITH OUR
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR NOTICEABLY MILDER AIR
TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH EACH DAY GETTING A BIT WARMER. THE
STRONGER FLOW IN THE NORTHERN STREAM IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NORTHWARD,
WHICH DRIVES STORMS FARTHER TO OUR NORTH. AS A RESULT, LOW PRESSURE
SHOULD TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH HELPING TO PULL WARMER AIR INTO OUR
CWA. THERE SHOULD BE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED HOWEVER TO OUR SOUTH
ON THE NORTHWEST EDGING OF THE BUILDING RIDGE. A SHORT WAVE SLIDING
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOW PRESSURE TO
DEVELOP AND TRACK ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY. THE STRENGTH OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. RIDGE MAY THEN ALLOW THIS LOW TO TRACK FARTHER
NORTH AND PUSH THE OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO COVER AT
LEAST A PORTION OF OUR CWA TUESDAY. WE ARE ANTICIPATING THIS TO BE
RAIN IF IT WERE TO OCCUR GIVEN A MODERATING AIRMASS. WE FAVORED THE
WPC POPS WHICH INCREASES THE SLIGHT CHC AND CHC POPS A BIT AND
FARTHER NORTHWARD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH A
COLD FRONT MAY BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE WEDNESDAY FRONT SHOULD WASH OUT OR
SHIFT TO OUR EAST THURSDAY. SOME RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE PLAINS
SHOULD FORCE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD BRING SOME COOLING
TO THE AREA, WITH HIGHS THURSDAY ABOUT 5 DEGREES COLDER THAN
WEDNESDAY. THIS HIGH SHOULD BE OVERHEAD TO START FRIDAY, THEN START
TO EASE OFF TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT
WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM NORTHWEST TO WEST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
UNDER 10 KNOTS. A GENERAL INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW AHEAD A COLD FRONT. SOME WIND GUSTS FROM
15-20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND 18Z SATURDAY WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE FOR THESE GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SOME MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
FROM ABOUT KTTN TO KABE NORTHWARD. OTHERWISE, VFR WITH SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS FOR A TIME.

MONDAY...VFR OVERALL.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR, HOWEVER A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT THE KPHL METRO ON SOUTHWARD TUESDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SOME RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TO AROUND 2-3 FEET FOR TONIGHT ON THE
OCEAN WITH LOWER SEAS CLOSER TO 1-2 FEET ON THE BAY. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO WEST THIS EVENING WITH TOP GUSTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FROM 15-20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES SOME FOR
A TIME AS A WEAK FRONT ARRIVES, HOWEVER OVERALL THE CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

MONDAY...OVERALL, CONDITIONS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK TO OUR
SOUTH, HOWEVER IF IT FAVORS A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK THEN WINDS MAY
INCREASE ENOUGH TO ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A TIME MAINLY TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR REFERENCE, BELOW ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY,
MARCH 7TH.

ACY...10 IN 1890
PHL....9 IN 1960
ILG...11 IN 1960
ABE....1 IN 1960
TTN....7 IN 1890
GED....3 IN 1960
RDG...10 IN 1989
MPO..-18 IN 1911

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GAINES/GORSE
MARINE...GAINES/GORSE
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 062047
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
347 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AND
GRADUALLY WEAKENS. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN TRACK TO OUR
NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, PULLING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS
OUR REGION. LOW PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT TO OUR
SOUTHWEST LATE MONDAY, THEN TRACK TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
HOWEVER A WEAK FRONT MAY SLIDE BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10 MPH SHIFTING FROM
NORTHWEST TO WEST. THIS WILL SET-UP ANOTHER GOOD NIGHT FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH A SNOWCOVER IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
FALL OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY RISE SOME TOWARD SUNRISE WITH THE MORE
WESTERLY FLOW. OVERALL, WENT A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE MAV AND
MET OUTSIDE OF PHL BUT STAYED CLOSE TO THESE GUIDANCE SETS FOR OTHER
ELEMENTS. SOME RECORDS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION,
PLEASE SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY
SATURDAY. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS LOOK FAIRLY DRY ACROSS THE
REGION FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THE GFS AND RGEM INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME NON MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. HAVE ADDED
SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST IN THOSE AREAS. SOME WIND
GUSTS FROM 15-20 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS ENERGY EJECTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE
IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST. THIS RESULTS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
TURNING MORE ZONAL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THOUGH SHOULD RESULT IN A SURFACE LOW
TRACKING TO OUR SOUTH WITH PERHAPS OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION GETTING
INTO AT LEAST A PORTION OF OUR CWA TUESDAY. WE USED A MODEL BLEND
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, THEN WENT WITH THE 12Z WPC
GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. WE THEN MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS AFTER ADDITIONAL
COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A WEAK SHORT WAVE TRACKS TO OUR
NORTH WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED WITH MUCH OF THE LIFT TO OUR NORTH
AND ALSO CONFINED TO THE GREAT LAKES AREA. SOME WAA OCCURS AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE, THEN CAA ALOFT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR SUNDAY BEHIND THE
WEAK COLD FRONT. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS, THIS
LOOKS MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH EVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOWER CLOUDS FOR A TIME. WE MAINTAINED MORE
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS, WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS
/NORTHWEST/ FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT /THE AIRMASS
MAY REMAIN DRY OR THE FORCING WEAK ENOUGH TO NOT ALLOW PRECIPITATION
TO OCCUR/. OVERALL, ANY QPF WOULD BE RATHER LIGHT.

FOR MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER OUR
AREA, HOWEVER A SHORT WAVE ALOFT SHOULD GENERALLY GLANCE OUR CWA. AT
THE SURFACE, THIS IS REFLECTED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS MORE
PRONOUNCED TO OUR NORTH. THERE IS SOME WEAK WAA FORECAST TO OCCUR
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, HOWEVER BASED ON THE QUICK MOTION AND ALSO
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE SPELLS FOR A DRY SYSTEM SLIDING BY. WE
ONCE AGAIN PLACED SOME HIGHER CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH CLOSER TO
THE ACTUAL SHORT WAVE.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AND SOUTHEAST AS RIDGING BUILDS OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST. AS
THIS OCCURS, THE FLOW BACKS SOME ALLOWING THE WAA TO INCREASE SOME
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL FOCUS A WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH WITH OUR
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR NOTICEABLY MILDER AIR
TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH EACH DAY GETTING A BIT WARMER. THE
STRONGER FLOW IN THE NORTHERN STREAM IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NORTHWARD,
WHICH DRIVES STORMS FARTHER TO OUR NORTH. AS A RESULT, LOW PRESSURE
SHOULD TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH HELPING TO PULL WARMER AIR INTO OUR
CWA. THERE SHOULD BE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED HOWEVER TO OUR SOUTH
ON THE NORTHWEST EDGING OF THE BUILDING RIDGE. A SHORT WAVE SLIDING
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOW PRESSURE TO
DEVELOP AND TRACK ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY. THE STRENGTH OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. RIDGE MAY THEN ALLOW THIS LOW TO TRACK FARTHER
NORTH AND PUSH THE OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO COVER AT
LEAST A PORTION OF OUR CWA TUESDAY. WE ARE ANTICIPATING THIS TO BE
RAIN IF IT WERE TO OCCUR GIVEN A MODERATING AIRMASS. WE FAVORED THE
WPC POPS WHICH INCREASES THE SLIGHT CHC AND CHC POPS A BIT AND
FARTHER NORTHWARD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH A
COLD FRONT MAY BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE WEDNESDAY FRONT SHOULD WASH OUT OR
SHIFT TO OUR EAST THURSDAY. SOME RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE PLAINS
SHOULD FORCE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD BRING SOME COOLING
TO THE AREA, WITH HIGHS THURSDAY ABOUT 5 DEGREES COLDER THAN
WEDNESDAY. THIS HIGH SHOULD BE OVERHEAD TO START FRIDAY, THEN START
TO EASE OFF TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT
WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM NORTHWEST TO WEST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
UNDER 10 KNOTS. A GENERAL INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW AHEAD A COLD FRONT. SOME WIND GUSTS FROM
15-20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND 18Z SATURDAY WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE FOR THESE GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SOME MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
FROM ABOUT KTTN TO KABE NORTHWARD. OTHERWISE, VFR WITH SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS FOR A TIME.

MONDAY...VFR OVERALL.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR, HOWEVER A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT THE KPHL METRO ON SOUTHWARD TUESDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SOME RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TO AROUND 2-3 FEET FOR TONIGHT ON THE
OCEAN WITH LOWER SEAS CLOSER TO 1-2 FEET ON THE BAY. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO WEST THIS EVENING WITH TOP GUSTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FROM 15-20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES SOME FOR
A TIME AS A WEAK FRONT ARRIVES, HOWEVER OVERALL THE CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

MONDAY...OVERALL, CONDITIONS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK TO OUR
SOUTH, HOWEVER IF IT FAVORS A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK THEN WINDS MAY
INCREASE ENOUGH TO ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A TIME MAINLY TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR REFERENCE, BELOW ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY,
MARCH 7TH.

ACY...10 IN 1890
PHL....9 IN 1960
ILG...11 IN 1960
ABE....1 IN 1960
TTN....7 IN 1890
GED....3 IN 1960
RDG...10 IN 1989
MPO..-18 IN 1911

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GAINES/GORSE
MARINE...GAINES/GORSE
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 062003
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
303 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND
BRINGING A STEADY MODERATING TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO THE INTERIOR
NORTHEAST, WITH A SFC RIDGE EXTENDING E-NE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP ALONG THE
COAST OVERNIGHT, ALLOWING FOR CLEAR AND UNSEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS. MANY LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
TEENS...WHICH AGAIN ARE NEARLY -2 ST DEV FROM THE SEASONAL MEAN.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON ROADS/TRAFFIC CAMS TONIGHT FOR
POSSIBLE STATEMENT ON BLACK ICE OVERNIGHT.

INCREASING ZONAL FLOW THIS WEEKEND WILL PUSH THE ARCTIC HIGH WELL
OFFSHORE. ADDITIONALLY ANY NRN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL STAY WELL N OF
THE MID ATLANTIC. SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A SUBSTANTIAL
MODERATING TREND...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONAL NORMALS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS SATURDAY RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO
LOW 50S OVER INTERIOR VA AND NE NC...WITH LOW/MID 40S OVER THE ERN
SHORE AND COASTAL SE VA/NE NC. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE
MILDER AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. SKY COVER SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SAT...WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK CHARACTERIZED BY
A GRADUAL WARMUP IN TEMPS SUN-MON, THOUGH TEMPS STILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. SPLIT FLOW SETUP CONTINUES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...W/NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY REMAINS
WELL NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AS SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONFINED TO THE 4 CORNERS/SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS REGION INTO NW MEXICO. DO HAVE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY
SUNDAY NIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA, AS THE
SOUTHWEST TROUGH WILL EJECT SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT WILL
SCOOT ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MID-SOUTH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AS
THIS ENERGY PROGRERSSES EAST, IT`LL SPREAD SOME LIGHT RAIN/SCT
SHRAS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. DO TO
LOW CHCS FOR MEASURING, WL STICK WITH NO HIGHER THAN A 20% POP
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER. REMAINING CLOUDY
THROUGH MONDAY, WITH POPS INCREASING BY LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AHEAD OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL PIECE OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY, WHICH SHOULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPTATION FROM SW TO
NE TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

FOR TEMPS, THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATING AFOREMENTIONED WARMUP FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. WENT TOWARDS THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE ON
SUNDAY WITH SFC HIGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. HIGHS IN THE MID
50S NORTH TO NEAR 60 SOUTH (EXCEPTION BEING UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50
ALONG ATLANTIC COAST OF EASTERN SHORE). GIVEN CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS, WENT TOWARD THE LOWER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE ON
MONDAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY SIMILAR TO
THOSE OF SUNDAY...U50S TO NEAR 60 SOUTH...LOW TO MID 50S NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
NORTHWARD FROM THE GOMEX ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...EVENTUALLY PUSHING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER
TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...SOME DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIFT NWRD
INTO THE REGION...BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ON TUESDAY..ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN AREAS. THE STALLED BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE SE WEDNESDAY
FOR LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD BY THURSDAY FOR
DRY WX. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER GOMEX SYSTEM TO BRING
RAIN BACK TO THE AREA NEXT FRIDAY. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
30S TO LWR 40S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
ON TUE...TO THE LOW/MID 50S TO LWR 60S WED AND THU. COOLING BACK
INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS WILL BE FOUND AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH SOME CLOUDS NR 3K
FT COMING OFF THE OCEAN NR KSBY ATTM. SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE
W WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO DIMINISH THIS AFTN AND ESPECIALLY TNGT
AS THE HI SLIDES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.

DRY WX AND VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE WEEKEND WITH THE HI
REMAINING IN THE VICINITY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN MON
NIGHT/TUE WITH THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 3 PM...THE ONLY REMAINING SCA WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS WHERE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY FALL BELOW 5 FT THIS
EVENING...PROBABLY TAKING UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT FOR OBX CURRITUCK.
N-NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO BETWEEN 5-15 KT AS WELL. BENIGN MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING IN THE VICINITY AND SLOWLY SLIDING OFFSHORE. THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUE. SCA`S ARE NOT
EXPECTED ATTM...EXCEPT POTENTIAL FOR ~5 FT SEAS ALONG THE NORTHERN
OBX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PRECIPITATION AND MELTING SNOW WILL CAUSE MANY AREA RIVER LEVELS
WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME REACHING
THREE QUARTERS BANKFULL OR HIGHER. A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE JAMES
RIVER AT BREMO BLUFF HAS BEEN ISSUED. WE`LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
RIVER LEVELS AT BREMO FOR A POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE JAMES
RIVER AT RICHMOND WESTHAM. AT THIS TIME, RICHMOND-WESTHAM IS
FORECAST TO GO INTO LOW END MINOR FLOOD SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING 3/6:
 RIC...15 IN 1960 (ACTUAL LOW 16)
 ORF...20 IN 1901 (ACTUAL LOW 24)
 SBY...13 IN 1968 (ACTUAL LOW 16)
 ECG...20 IN 1960 (ACTUAL LOW 25)

RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR 3/6:
RIC...28 IN 1901 (IN THE LOW 30S AT 20Z)
ORF...28 IN 1901 (REACHED EARLY THIS AM)
SBY...31 IN 1960 (UPR 20S AT 20Z; STILL POSSIBLE)
ECG...37 IN 1960 (MID 30S AT 20Z; STILL POSSIBLE)

RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY 3/7:
 RIC...12 IN 1960
 ORF...17 IN 1899
 SBY...11 IN 1960
 ECG...17 IN 1960

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-
     650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/AJZ
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...MAS/DAP
MARINE...JDM
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 061945
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
245 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEAR SKIES WILL GRADUALLY BE REPLACED BY CLOUDS THROUGH SATURDAY
AS COLD AIR SLOWLY ERODES THIS WEEKEND. MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO FINALLY RETURN BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS AN
EXCEEDINGLY WEAK...MOISTURE STARVED...AND ESSENTIALLY SURFACE
DISCONNECTED SYSTEM IS TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION. WITH LITTLE
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM
THIS SYSTEM. THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE A SLOW INCREASE IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...AS WELL AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID AND HIGH CLOUD INCREASE.
THE EFFECTS OF THIS WILL BASICALLY BE TO HOLD BACK TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNSET...WITH LITTLE MORE FANFARE THAN THAT.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...THE GRADIENT FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD
INCREASE JUST A BIT...ALTHOUGH THE PREPONDERANCE OF GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS OUR BOUNDARY LAYER MAY DECOUPLE FROM THE WEST VIRGINIA
PANHANDLE EASTWARD BEFORE THIS OCCURS. ADDITIONALLY...SOME
CLEARING MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR AN INTERLUDE BETWEEN THE WEAK SYSTEM
THIS EVENING AND ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE THAT APPROACHES FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DECOUPLING COMBINED WITH COME CLEARING SHOULD
ALLOW FOR MANY AREAS TO DROP A FAIR BIT TONIGHT...EVEN AS MOS
GUIDANCE FAILS TO SHOW MUCH DIURNAL FALL AT ALL. THAT SAID...LOWS
WERE FORECAST COMBINING THE COLDER END OF GUIDANCE...AND SHOULD
CLEARING MATERIALIZE IN A MORE WIDESPREAD FASHION...SINGLE DIGITS
MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.

BY SATURDAY...CLOUDS WILL AGAIN BE ON THE INCREASE. WHILE MODEL
SOLUTIONS REALLY HAVE FAILED TO TREND MUCH STRONGER WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE...THEY ARE MANAGING TO KICK UP LAYER MOISTURE
A BIT. ADDITIONALLY...FAIRLY UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SEEM
TO BE GENERATED...AND THE MAJORITY OF THE LIFT IN TIME HEIGHT
SECTIONS SEEMS TO BE WORKING ON THE UNSTABLE PORTION OF THE
PROFILE AS THE SYSTEM PASSES. BECAUSE THE MAJORITY OF THE LIFT
TRAVERSES TO OUR NORTH...POPS WERE GENERALLY BUILT TO FAVOR THE
I-80 CORRIDOR AND TAPER SOUTHWARD...WITH MOISTURE LIKELY BEING TOO
LEAN TO SQUEEZE OUT ANYTHING SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH.

SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THAT WET BULBING
SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
SNOW. THIS SEEMS LIKELY EVEN AS WARM ADVECTION AND EFFICIENT
MIXING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MAY WELL WARM VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE CWA
ABOVE FREEZING BY AFTERNOON. IN FACT...ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
CWA...EVEN A 40 DEGREE READING WOULD NOT BE TOO SHOCKING. THIS IS
A FAR CRY FROM THE BELOW ZERO READINGS WE HAD THIS MORNING...AND
DOWNRIGHT TROPICAL COMPARED TO WHAT FEBRUARY WAS LIKE. IT
CERTAINLY SEEMS LIKE OLD MAN WINTER MAY BE HAVING HIS BACK BROKEN
IN OUR AREA VERY SHORTLY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...AND MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RELEGATED TO JUST BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
ALONG THE NORTH.

DEEPER MID-LEVEL WAVE PASSING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WILL REINFORCE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING SOUTH OF LAKE
ERIE AND DAMMED UP AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR EAST.
MEANWHILE...MOISTURE ABOVE 700MB IS TRANSIENT AND MOVES QUICKLY
EAST OF THE AREA. THINKING THAT REALLY LIGHT SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION TYPE. BUT...WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE CONFINED
TO THE LOW-LEVELS AND THE TOP OF THAT MOISTURE AROUND -8C...THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE EXISTS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
SURROUNDING EXTENT OF MOISTURE AND TIMING...SO CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE GRIDS. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS WITH FUTURE RUNS OF HIGHER-RES MODELS.

FLOW BEGINS TO GO MORE ZONAL TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE UNDER MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A BRIEF BREAK BEFORE MVFR CIGS
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLOWLY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 061945
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
245 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEAR SKIES WILL GRADUALLY BE REPLACED BY CLOUDS THROUGH SATURDAY
AS COLD AIR SLOWLY ERODES THIS WEEKEND. MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO FINALLY RETURN BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS AN
EXCEEDINGLY WEAK...MOISTURE STARVED...AND ESSENTIALLY SURFACE
DISCONNECTED SYSTEM IS TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION. WITH LITTLE
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM
THIS SYSTEM. THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE A SLOW INCREASE IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...AS WELL AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID AND HIGH CLOUD INCREASE.
THE EFFECTS OF THIS WILL BASICALLY BE TO HOLD BACK TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNSET...WITH LITTLE MORE FANFARE THAN THAT.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...THE GRADIENT FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD
INCREASE JUST A BIT...ALTHOUGH THE PREPONDERANCE OF GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS OUR BOUNDARY LAYER MAY DECOUPLE FROM THE WEST VIRGINIA
PANHANDLE EASTWARD BEFORE THIS OCCURS. ADDITIONALLY...SOME
CLEARING MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR AN INTERLUDE BETWEEN THE WEAK SYSTEM
THIS EVENING AND ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE THAT APPROACHES FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DECOUPLING COMBINED WITH COME CLEARING SHOULD
ALLOW FOR MANY AREAS TO DROP A FAIR BIT TONIGHT...EVEN AS MOS
GUIDANCE FAILS TO SHOW MUCH DIURNAL FALL AT ALL. THAT SAID...LOWS
WERE FORECAST COMBINING THE COLDER END OF GUIDANCE...AND SHOULD
CLEARING MATERIALIZE IN A MORE WIDESPREAD FASHION...SINGLE DIGITS
MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.

BY SATURDAY...CLOUDS WILL AGAIN BE ON THE INCREASE. WHILE MODEL
SOLUTIONS REALLY HAVE FAILED TO TREND MUCH STRONGER WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE...THEY ARE MANAGING TO KICK UP LAYER MOISTURE
A BIT. ADDITIONALLY...FAIRLY UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SEEM
TO BE GENERATED...AND THE MAJORITY OF THE LIFT IN TIME HEIGHT
SECTIONS SEEMS TO BE WORKING ON THE UNSTABLE PORTION OF THE
PROFILE AS THE SYSTEM PASSES. BECAUSE THE MAJORITY OF THE LIFT
TRAVERSES TO OUR NORTH...POPS WERE GENERALLY BUILT TO FAVOR THE
I-80 CORRIDOR AND TAPER SOUTHWARD...WITH MOISTURE LIKELY BEING TOO
LEAN TO SQUEEZE OUT ANYTHING SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH.

SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THAT WET BULBING
SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
SNOW. THIS SEEMS LIKELY EVEN AS WARM ADVECTION AND EFFICIENT
MIXING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MAY WELL WARM VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE CWA
ABOVE FREEZING BY AFTERNOON. IN FACT...ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
CWA...EVEN A 40 DEGREE READING WOULD NOT BE TOO SHOCKING. THIS IS
A FAR CRY FROM THE BELOW ZERO READINGS WE HAD THIS MORNING...AND
DOWNRIGHT TROPICAL COMPARED TO WHAT FEBRUARY WAS LIKE. IT
CERTAINLY SEEMS LIKE OLD MAN WINTER MAY BE HAVING HIS BACK BROKEN
IN OUR AREA VERY SHORTLY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...AND MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RELEGATED TO JUST BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
ALONG THE NORTH.

DEEPER MID-LEVEL WAVE PASSING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WILL REINFORCE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING SOUTH OF LAKE
ERIE AND DAMMED UP AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR EAST.
MEANWHILE...MOISTURE ABOVE 700MB IS TRANSIENT AND MOVES QUICKLY
EAST OF THE AREA. THINKING THAT REALLY LIGHT SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION TYPE. BUT...WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE CONFINED
TO THE LOW-LEVELS AND THE TOP OF THAT MOISTURE AROUND -8C...THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE EXISTS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
SURROUNDING EXTENT OF MOISTURE AND TIMING...SO CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE GRIDS. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS WITH FUTURE RUNS OF HIGHER-RES MODELS.

FLOW BEGINS TO GO MORE ZONAL TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE UNDER MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A BRIEF BREAK BEFORE MVFR CIGS
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLOWLY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 061945
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
245 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEAR SKIES WILL GRADUALLY BE REPLACED BY CLOUDS THROUGH SATURDAY
AS COLD AIR SLOWLY ERODES THIS WEEKEND. MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO FINALLY RETURN BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS AN
EXCEEDINGLY WEAK...MOISTURE STARVED...AND ESSENTIALLY SURFACE
DISCONNECTED SYSTEM IS TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION. WITH LITTLE
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM
THIS SYSTEM. THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE A SLOW INCREASE IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...AS WELL AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID AND HIGH CLOUD INCREASE.
THE EFFECTS OF THIS WILL BASICALLY BE TO HOLD BACK TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNSET...WITH LITTLE MORE FANFARE THAN THAT.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...THE GRADIENT FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD
INCREASE JUST A BIT...ALTHOUGH THE PREPONDERANCE OF GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS OUR BOUNDARY LAYER MAY DECOUPLE FROM THE WEST VIRGINIA
PANHANDLE EASTWARD BEFORE THIS OCCURS. ADDITIONALLY...SOME
CLEARING MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR AN INTERLUDE BETWEEN THE WEAK SYSTEM
THIS EVENING AND ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE THAT APPROACHES FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DECOUPLING COMBINED WITH COME CLEARING SHOULD
ALLOW FOR MANY AREAS TO DROP A FAIR BIT TONIGHT...EVEN AS MOS
GUIDANCE FAILS TO SHOW MUCH DIURNAL FALL AT ALL. THAT SAID...LOWS
WERE FORECAST COMBINING THE COLDER END OF GUIDANCE...AND SHOULD
CLEARING MATERIALIZE IN A MORE WIDESPREAD FASHION...SINGLE DIGITS
MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.

BY SATURDAY...CLOUDS WILL AGAIN BE ON THE INCREASE. WHILE MODEL
SOLUTIONS REALLY HAVE FAILED TO TREND MUCH STRONGER WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE...THEY ARE MANAGING TO KICK UP LAYER MOISTURE
A BIT. ADDITIONALLY...FAIRLY UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SEEM
TO BE GENERATED...AND THE MAJORITY OF THE LIFT IN TIME HEIGHT
SECTIONS SEEMS TO BE WORKING ON THE UNSTABLE PORTION OF THE
PROFILE AS THE SYSTEM PASSES. BECAUSE THE MAJORITY OF THE LIFT
TRAVERSES TO OUR NORTH...POPS WERE GENERALLY BUILT TO FAVOR THE
I-80 CORRIDOR AND TAPER SOUTHWARD...WITH MOISTURE LIKELY BEING TOO
LEAN TO SQUEEZE OUT ANYTHING SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH.

SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THAT WET BULBING
SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
SNOW. THIS SEEMS LIKELY EVEN AS WARM ADVECTION AND EFFICIENT
MIXING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MAY WELL WARM VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE CWA
ABOVE FREEZING BY AFTERNOON. IN FACT...ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
CWA...EVEN A 40 DEGREE READING WOULD NOT BE TOO SHOCKING. THIS IS
A FAR CRY FROM THE BELOW ZERO READINGS WE HAD THIS MORNING...AND
DOWNRIGHT TROPICAL COMPARED TO WHAT FEBRUARY WAS LIKE. IT
CERTAINLY SEEMS LIKE OLD MAN WINTER MAY BE HAVING HIS BACK BROKEN
IN OUR AREA VERY SHORTLY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...AND MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RELEGATED TO JUST BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
ALONG THE NORTH.

DEEPER MID-LEVEL WAVE PASSING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WILL REINFORCE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING SOUTH OF LAKE
ERIE AND DAMMED UP AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR EAST.
MEANWHILE...MOISTURE ABOVE 700MB IS TRANSIENT AND MOVES QUICKLY
EAST OF THE AREA. THINKING THAT REALLY LIGHT SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION TYPE. BUT...WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE CONFINED
TO THE LOW-LEVELS AND THE TOP OF THAT MOISTURE AROUND -8C...THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE EXISTS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
SURROUNDING EXTENT OF MOISTURE AND TIMING...SO CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE GRIDS. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS WITH FUTURE RUNS OF HIGHER-RES MODELS.

FLOW BEGINS TO GO MORE ZONAL TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE UNDER MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A BRIEF BREAK BEFORE MVFR CIGS
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLOWLY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 061945
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
245 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEAR SKIES WILL GRADUALLY BE REPLACED BY CLOUDS THROUGH SATURDAY
AS COLD AIR SLOWLY ERODES THIS WEEKEND. MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO FINALLY RETURN BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS AN
EXCEEDINGLY WEAK...MOISTURE STARVED...AND ESSENTIALLY SURFACE
DISCONNECTED SYSTEM IS TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION. WITH LITTLE
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM
THIS SYSTEM. THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE A SLOW INCREASE IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...AS WELL AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID AND HIGH CLOUD INCREASE.
THE EFFECTS OF THIS WILL BASICALLY BE TO HOLD BACK TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNSET...WITH LITTLE MORE FANFARE THAN THAT.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...THE GRADIENT FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD
INCREASE JUST A BIT...ALTHOUGH THE PREPONDERANCE OF GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS OUR BOUNDARY LAYER MAY DECOUPLE FROM THE WEST VIRGINIA
PANHANDLE EASTWARD BEFORE THIS OCCURS. ADDITIONALLY...SOME
CLEARING MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR AN INTERLUDE BETWEEN THE WEAK SYSTEM
THIS EVENING AND ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE THAT APPROACHES FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DECOUPLING COMBINED WITH COME CLEARING SHOULD
ALLOW FOR MANY AREAS TO DROP A FAIR BIT TONIGHT...EVEN AS MOS
GUIDANCE FAILS TO SHOW MUCH DIURNAL FALL AT ALL. THAT SAID...LOWS
WERE FORECAST COMBINING THE COLDER END OF GUIDANCE...AND SHOULD
CLEARING MATERIALIZE IN A MORE WIDESPREAD FASHION...SINGLE DIGITS
MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.

BY SATURDAY...CLOUDS WILL AGAIN BE ON THE INCREASE. WHILE MODEL
SOLUTIONS REALLY HAVE FAILED TO TREND MUCH STRONGER WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE...THEY ARE MANAGING TO KICK UP LAYER MOISTURE
A BIT. ADDITIONALLY...FAIRLY UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SEEM
TO BE GENERATED...AND THE MAJORITY OF THE LIFT IN TIME HEIGHT
SECTIONS SEEMS TO BE WORKING ON THE UNSTABLE PORTION OF THE
PROFILE AS THE SYSTEM PASSES. BECAUSE THE MAJORITY OF THE LIFT
TRAVERSES TO OUR NORTH...POPS WERE GENERALLY BUILT TO FAVOR THE
I-80 CORRIDOR AND TAPER SOUTHWARD...WITH MOISTURE LIKELY BEING TOO
LEAN TO SQUEEZE OUT ANYTHING SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH.

SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THAT WET BULBING
SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
SNOW. THIS SEEMS LIKELY EVEN AS WARM ADVECTION AND EFFICIENT
MIXING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MAY WELL WARM VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE CWA
ABOVE FREEZING BY AFTERNOON. IN FACT...ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
CWA...EVEN A 40 DEGREE READING WOULD NOT BE TOO SHOCKING. THIS IS
A FAR CRY FROM THE BELOW ZERO READINGS WE HAD THIS MORNING...AND
DOWNRIGHT TROPICAL COMPARED TO WHAT FEBRUARY WAS LIKE. IT
CERTAINLY SEEMS LIKE OLD MAN WINTER MAY BE HAVING HIS BACK BROKEN
IN OUR AREA VERY SHORTLY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...AND MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RELEGATED TO JUST BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
ALONG THE NORTH.

DEEPER MID-LEVEL WAVE PASSING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WILL REINFORCE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING SOUTH OF LAKE
ERIE AND DAMMED UP AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR EAST.
MEANWHILE...MOISTURE ABOVE 700MB IS TRANSIENT AND MOVES QUICKLY
EAST OF THE AREA. THINKING THAT REALLY LIGHT SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION TYPE. BUT...WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE CONFINED
TO THE LOW-LEVELS AND THE TOP OF THAT MOISTURE AROUND -8C...THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE EXISTS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
SURROUNDING EXTENT OF MOISTURE AND TIMING...SO CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE GRIDS. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS WITH FUTURE RUNS OF HIGHER-RES MODELS.

FLOW BEGINS TO GO MORE ZONAL TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE UNDER MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A BRIEF BREAK BEFORE MVFR CIGS
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLOWLY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





  [top]

000
FXUS61 KLWX 061923
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
223 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TONIGHT...THEN SETTLES OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDING OVERHEAD THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG
THE CAROLINA COAST TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MID-
ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIPRES WL BUILD ACRS THE CWFA TNGT...AND BE SHUNTED SWD TMRW AS S/WV
ENERGY AND SFC LOPRES DIVES ACRS THE GRTLKS. THE THERMAL TROF WL BE
OVER CWFA BTWN 00-06Z...AND THEN WL RETREAT. THUS...WL HV A GOOD
RADL COOLING NGT IMPEDED ONLY BY A TOUCH OF MID-LVL CLDCVR. WAA WL
HV BIGGEST IMPACT ON AREA TMRW. TEMPS ON COOL SIDE OF MOS FOR MIN-
T...BUT ACCEPTED MOS MEAN FOR MAXT TMRW. THAT MEANS TEMPS SAT SHUD
REACH THE 40S AREAWIDE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN US
SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND WAVE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
FORM OFF THE APPALACHIANS AND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY. FCST MAX TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND NRN MARYLAND TO THE LOW TO MID 50S
IN THE METROS...PIEDMONT AND CENTRAL FOOTHILLS. UPSLOPE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. LESS THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON MONDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DEVELOPING LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST INCREASING THE PRECIP
CHANCES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. EXPECTING MAINLY RAIN FOR
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA... BUT IF SYSTEM ARRIVES EARLIER
OR TRACKS FARTHER NORTH... A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND SETTLES FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR THRU VALID TAF PD. DOUBT WE/LL EVEN HV CIGS...BUT IF WE DO
IT/LL BE FM MID DECK. WNDS ALREADY LIGHT DUE TO HIPRES...BUT THE
NLY DRIFT WL GENERALLY CALM TNGT AND BECOME SLY 5-10 KT TMRW.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MVFR POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
QUIET WX ON THE WATERS NEXT 24 HRS. NLY FLOW AOB 10 KT WL BECOME
LGT/VRBL TNGT AND SLY SAT. MAY HV A BIT OF CHANNELING ON THE MID
BAY SAT AFTN...BUT WITH COLD WATER HV CAPPED AT 15 KT.

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS BY EARLY SUNDAY AND
WESTERLY WINDS MAY PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WELL.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE WARMING TREND AS WELL AS THE MARCH SUN ANGLE WILL LEAD TO
SNOW MELT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THIS
TIME...SNOWMELT WILL BE SLOW AND WITHOUT ANY ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. WILL BE MONITORING RIVER
LEVELS CLOSELY THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES ARE IN JEOPARDY AS ANOTHER COLD AIRMASS
PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION. BELOW IS A LIST OF RECORD DAILY LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 6TH AND 7TH...AND RECORD DAILY LOW MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 6TH.

SITE...RECORD MIN 03/06...RECORD LOW MAX 03/06...RECORD MIN 03/07...
DCA.....10 F (1988).........21 F (1901)...........13 F (1890).......
BWI.....13 F (1901/1873)....21 F (1901)...........10 F (1960).......
IAD.....15 F (1978).........32 F (2007)...........14 F (1985).......

RECORD LOWS WERE SET THIS MRNG AT IAD /9/ AND BWI /13/.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...HTS/HAS/IMR
MARINE...HTS/HAS/IMR
HYDROLOGY...HAS
CLIMATE...DFH/HTS




000
FXUS61 KPHI 061910
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
210 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AND THEN SINK SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTH LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
SHOULD PASS ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
PREDICTED TO FORM ON THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST TUESDAY AND THEN MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE. A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE, ONLY A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WERE NEEDED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING PERIOD. WE MAINLY USED THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE TO EDIT
THESE ELEMENTS, AS THIS DATA WAS REPRESENTATIVE OF THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

OTHERWISE, FAIR WEATHER AND COLD TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. SKIES WILL BE CLR THIS
MORNING...AND THEN THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH LOW/MID
20S NORTH AND MID 20S TO PERHAPS LOW 30S OVER METRO PHILADELPHIA
AND OVER THE DELMARVA. WINDS WILL BE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
MPH THIS MORNING AND THEN BECOME WEST OR SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH BY
DUSK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN THU NIGHT AND WITH THE AMPLE
SNOW COVER ACROSS THE REGION...LOW TEMPERATURES COULD BE AS COLD (OR
PERHAPS COLDER) THAN THU NIGHTS READINGS. PRESENTLY WE HAVE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH TEENS ALONG THE SHORE AND 12 FOR PHL.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 500MB INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER OFF THE WRF VS THE GFS, OVERALL
THEY WERE SPLIT AT 850MB AND BOTH ABOUT 1C TOO COLD AT 925MB ON
AVERAGE. AFTER HAVING THREE WINTRY PCPN EVENTS IN THE FIRST FIVE DAYS
OF MARCH, THE LONG TERM REMAINS RELATIVELY MORE SUBDUED WITH A MUCH
ANTICIPATED RETURN (EVEN IF ITS JUST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS) OF NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE ONE CHANGE TONIGHT VS LAST NIGHT IS THE
INCREASING CHANCE THAT A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MIGHT BRING SOME RAIN
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

THE MODERATING TREND WILL START ON SATURDAY AFTER A COLD COLD COLD
MORNING. MID LEVEL WAA ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHOULD BRING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO OUR CWA, ESPECIALLY
NORTH. IN SPITE OF THIS, WE WENT TOWARD THE HIGHER SET OF STAT
GUIDANCE. TODAY (FRIDAY) WILL BE A GOOD LITMUS TEST IF STAT
GUIDANCE COLD BIAS IN SPITE OF AMPLE SNOW COVER CONTINUES. AS FAR
AS SNOW SHOWERS, THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH OF A CHANGE TO THE
GEOGRAPHICAL EXTENT OF MEASURABLE PCPN REACHING DEEPER INTO OUR
CWA. ONLY CHANGE WE MADE, WAS TO START THE LOW CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS FAR NORTH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SHOULD PASS THROUGH
OUR CWA ON SATURDAY NIGHT. NOT MUCH DEEP MOISTURE TO GENERATE
SHOWERS. LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WAS KEPT FAR NORTH. MODELS ARE
INDICATING MORE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS (POSSIBLY TRAPPED UNDER AN
INVERSION NORTH) AROUND AND THIS IS REASON FOR MUCH HIGHER MINS.

ON SUNDAY, SOME WEAK PVA AND A JET STREAK ARE PREDICTED TO PASS
ACROSS OUR CWA, LEANING NORTH. STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL IF WE HAVE
THE GEOGRAPHY STRAIGHT, THE JET STREAK ITSELF LOOKS MORE CERTAIN. WE
PUT IN A CHANCE OF FLURRIES NORTH AS A PROXY. WHILE SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST LACK OF ICE COULD BE A PROBLEM (ESPECIALLY ON THE MOISTURE
TRAPPED NAM SOUNDINGS), WESTERLY WINDS ARE NORMALLY NOT A FREEZING
DRIZZLE DIRECTION IN OUR AREA. WHILE COLDER AIR (RELATIVE TO
SATURDAY) IS PREDICTED TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA, IT WARMS BEYOND
SATURDAY AT 925MB. THUS REASON FOR BUMP UP IN MAX TEMPS.

A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. BY
THEN AIR MASS IS EVEN SLIGHTLY WARMER AND WE EXPECT THE SNOW COVER
TO BE LOSING ITS EFFECTIVENESS ON SLOWING THE RISE OF MAX TEMPS.

CHANGE THEN COMES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND MORE SO TUESDAY AS ALL THE
RUNS HAVE TRENDED NORTH WITH A LOW FORMING OFF THE OLD STALLED
FRONT. UNLESS PCPN FLIES IN ON MONDAY NIGHT, THERMALLY IT LOOKS WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN, ESPECIALLY GIVEN SOUTH IS FAVORED OVER NORTH.
FASTER TIMING COUPLED WITH A MORE NORTHERN EXTENSION MIGHT BE
PROBLEMATIC FOR PTYPE. IN ITS WAKE, AN EVEN MILDER DAY IS
PREDICTED FOR WEDNESDAY BEFORE A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BRINGS COLDER AIR BACK INTO OUR CWA POSSIBLY AS SOON AS THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT
WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM NORTHWEST TO WEST THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING UNDER 10 KNOTS. A GENERAL INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMMOROW AHEAD A COLD FRONT. SOME WIND
GUSTS FROM 15-20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND 18Z WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE FOR THESE GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SOME MVFR CONDITIONS DUE MAINLY
TO CIGS AS A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES BY LATER SATURDAY. HOWEVER,
ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE
TERMINALS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...VFR OVERALL.

TUESDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND
TERMINALS. PTYPE SHOULD BE RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA FOR OUR CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS HAS BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS FOR ALL OF OUR
COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY, WITH SEAS
RANGING FROM 2 TO 4 FEET FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND 1 TO 2 FOOT
SEAS FOR DELAWARE BAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THE
WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING SATURDAY.
THERE IS A CHC FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY SATURDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WE ARE ANTICIPATING SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

TUESDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
PENDING THE PROXIMITY OF THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PREDICTED TO FORM OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH A SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING WE HAVE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909


SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

IT APPEARS THAT READING AND ATLANTIC CITY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF GETTING TO THEIR RECORD LOW SATURDAY MORNING.
RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

RER`S POSTED FOR KILG AND KACY...BOTH 7.0 INCHES.

PHL HAD 7.5 AND ALLENTOWN 6.7.

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

FWIW...WATER EQUIVALENCE OF TOTAL SNOW DEPTH IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PA IS NOW WELL OVER 3 INCHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/GORSE
NEAR TERM...GAINES/KLINE/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GAINES/GIGI/GORSE
MARINE...GIGI/GORSE/KLINE/O`HARA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 061910
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
210 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AND THEN SINK SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTH LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
SHOULD PASS ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
PREDICTED TO FORM ON THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST TUESDAY AND THEN MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE. A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE, ONLY A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WERE NEEDED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING PERIOD. WE MAINLY USED THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE TO EDIT
THESE ELEMENTS, AS THIS DATA WAS REPRESENTATIVE OF THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

OTHERWISE, FAIR WEATHER AND COLD TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. SKIES WILL BE CLR THIS
MORNING...AND THEN THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH LOW/MID
20S NORTH AND MID 20S TO PERHAPS LOW 30S OVER METRO PHILADELPHIA
AND OVER THE DELMARVA. WINDS WILL BE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
MPH THIS MORNING AND THEN BECOME WEST OR SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH BY
DUSK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN THU NIGHT AND WITH THE AMPLE
SNOW COVER ACROSS THE REGION...LOW TEMPERATURES COULD BE AS COLD (OR
PERHAPS COLDER) THAN THU NIGHTS READINGS. PRESENTLY WE HAVE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH TEENS ALONG THE SHORE AND 12 FOR PHL.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 500MB INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER OFF THE WRF VS THE GFS, OVERALL
THEY WERE SPLIT AT 850MB AND BOTH ABOUT 1C TOO COLD AT 925MB ON
AVERAGE. AFTER HAVING THREE WINTRY PCPN EVENTS IN THE FIRST FIVE DAYS
OF MARCH, THE LONG TERM REMAINS RELATIVELY MORE SUBDUED WITH A MUCH
ANTICIPATED RETURN (EVEN IF ITS JUST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS) OF NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE ONE CHANGE TONIGHT VS LAST NIGHT IS THE
INCREASING CHANCE THAT A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MIGHT BRING SOME RAIN
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

THE MODERATING TREND WILL START ON SATURDAY AFTER A COLD COLD COLD
MORNING. MID LEVEL WAA ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHOULD BRING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO OUR CWA, ESPECIALLY
NORTH. IN SPITE OF THIS, WE WENT TOWARD THE HIGHER SET OF STAT
GUIDANCE. TODAY (FRIDAY) WILL BE A GOOD LITMUS TEST IF STAT
GUIDANCE COLD BIAS IN SPITE OF AMPLE SNOW COVER CONTINUES. AS FAR
AS SNOW SHOWERS, THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH OF A CHANGE TO THE
GEOGRAPHICAL EXTENT OF MEASURABLE PCPN REACHING DEEPER INTO OUR
CWA. ONLY CHANGE WE MADE, WAS TO START THE LOW CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS FAR NORTH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SHOULD PASS THROUGH
OUR CWA ON SATURDAY NIGHT. NOT MUCH DEEP MOISTURE TO GENERATE
SHOWERS. LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WAS KEPT FAR NORTH. MODELS ARE
INDICATING MORE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS (POSSIBLY TRAPPED UNDER AN
INVERSION NORTH) AROUND AND THIS IS REASON FOR MUCH HIGHER MINS.

ON SUNDAY, SOME WEAK PVA AND A JET STREAK ARE PREDICTED TO PASS
ACROSS OUR CWA, LEANING NORTH. STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL IF WE HAVE
THE GEOGRAPHY STRAIGHT, THE JET STREAK ITSELF LOOKS MORE CERTAIN. WE
PUT IN A CHANCE OF FLURRIES NORTH AS A PROXY. WHILE SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST LACK OF ICE COULD BE A PROBLEM (ESPECIALLY ON THE MOISTURE
TRAPPED NAM SOUNDINGS), WESTERLY WINDS ARE NORMALLY NOT A FREEZING
DRIZZLE DIRECTION IN OUR AREA. WHILE COLDER AIR (RELATIVE TO
SATURDAY) IS PREDICTED TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA, IT WARMS BEYOND
SATURDAY AT 925MB. THUS REASON FOR BUMP UP IN MAX TEMPS.

A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. BY
THEN AIR MASS IS EVEN SLIGHTLY WARMER AND WE EXPECT THE SNOW COVER
TO BE LOSING ITS EFFECTIVENESS ON SLOWING THE RISE OF MAX TEMPS.

CHANGE THEN COMES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND MORE SO TUESDAY AS ALL THE
RUNS HAVE TRENDED NORTH WITH A LOW FORMING OFF THE OLD STALLED
FRONT. UNLESS PCPN FLIES IN ON MONDAY NIGHT, THERMALLY IT LOOKS WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN, ESPECIALLY GIVEN SOUTH IS FAVORED OVER NORTH.
FASTER TIMING COUPLED WITH A MORE NORTHERN EXTENSION MIGHT BE
PROBLEMATIC FOR PTYPE. IN ITS WAKE, AN EVEN MILDER DAY IS
PREDICTED FOR WEDNESDAY BEFORE A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BRINGS COLDER AIR BACK INTO OUR CWA POSSIBLY AS SOON AS THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT
WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM NORTHWEST TO WEST THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING UNDER 10 KNOTS. A GENERAL INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMMOROW AHEAD A COLD FRONT. SOME WIND
GUSTS FROM 15-20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND 18Z WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE FOR THESE GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SOME MVFR CONDITIONS DUE MAINLY
TO CIGS AS A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES BY LATER SATURDAY. HOWEVER,
ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE
TERMINALS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...VFR OVERALL.

TUESDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND
TERMINALS. PTYPE SHOULD BE RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA FOR OUR CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS HAS BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS FOR ALL OF OUR
COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY, WITH SEAS
RANGING FROM 2 TO 4 FEET FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND 1 TO 2 FOOT
SEAS FOR DELAWARE BAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THE
WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING SATURDAY.
THERE IS A CHC FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY SATURDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WE ARE ANTICIPATING SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

TUESDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
PENDING THE PROXIMITY OF THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PREDICTED TO FORM OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH A SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING WE HAVE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909


SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

IT APPEARS THAT READING AND ATLANTIC CITY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF GETTING TO THEIR RECORD LOW SATURDAY MORNING.
RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

RER`S POSTED FOR KILG AND KACY...BOTH 7.0 INCHES.

PHL HAD 7.5 AND ALLENTOWN 6.7.

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

FWIW...WATER EQUIVALENCE OF TOTAL SNOW DEPTH IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PA IS NOW WELL OVER 3 INCHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/GORSE
NEAR TERM...GAINES/KLINE/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GAINES/GIGI/GORSE
MARINE...GIGI/GORSE/KLINE/O`HARA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 061909
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
209 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING A
STEADY MODERATING TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO THE INTERIOR
NORTHEAST. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TODAY,
RESULTING IN COLD BUT MAINLY SUNNY/DRY DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
THE PRESENCE OF AN ARCTIC INVERSION WILL LIMIT MIXING...AND HIGHS
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 30S (ABOUT -2 ST DEV)
DESPITE THE EARLY MARCH SUN.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT, ALLOWING FOR
CLEAR AND UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS. MANY LOCATIONS WILL
EXPERIENCE LOWS IN THE LOW/MID TEENS...WHICH AGAIN ARE NEARLY -2
ST DEV FROM THE SEASONAL MEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING ZONAL FLOW THIS WEEKEND WILL PUSH THE ARCTIC HIGH WELL
OFFSHORE. ADDITIONALLY ANY NRN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL STAY WELL N OF
THE MID ATLANTIC. SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A SUBSTANTIAL
MODERATING TREND...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONAL NORMALS
BY SUNDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S OVER
INTERIOR VA AND NE NC...WITH LOW/MID 40S OVER THE ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL SE VA/NE NC. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER
50S...WITH LOCALLY COOLER READINGS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC
COAST. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE MILDER AND RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. SKY COVER SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR/SUNNY...WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE N.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/CMC/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND THESE MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR. MORE OF A SPLIT/ZONAL
PATTERN WILL AFFECT THE CNTRL/ERN U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD
RESULTING IN NEAR OR SLGTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACRS THE FCST AREA.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACRS THE REGION SUN NGT INTO MON MORNG
POSSIBLY TRIGGERING ISLTD RAIN SHOWERS. MON NGT INTO TUE NGT...SFC
HI PRES WILL BE SLIDING ACRS EXTRM NRN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...WHILE WEAK LO PRES WILL BE MOVING FM THE GULF OF MEXICO
ENE AND OFF THE SE CST. AS A RESULT...SOME DEEPER LO LVL MOISTURE
WILL LIFT NWRD INTO AT LEAST SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. 00Z
GFS/CMC/ECMWF EACH TRENDED NWD WITH THIS SYSTM...SO POPS HAVE BEEN
TRENDED UPWARD TO 30-40% N TO 40-50% S. OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY
WX...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE SLGT CHC OVR NE NC COUNTIES...FOR WED AFTN
THRU THU AS HI PRES BLDS FARTHER S. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE
MID 30S TO LWR 40S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 40S TO
UPR 50S MON AND TUE...AND IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS WILL BE FOUND AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH SOME CLOUDS NR 3K
FT COMING OFF THE OCEAN NR KSBY ATTM. SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE
W WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO DIMINISH THIS AFTN AND ESPECIALLY TNGT
AS THE HI SLIDES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.

DRY WX AND VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE WEEKEND WITH THE HI
REMAINING IN THE VICINITY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN MON
NIGHT/TUE WITH THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM.

&&

.MARINE...
QUICK UPDATE TO REFLECT EXPIRATION OF HIGH SURF ADVY FOR THE
NORTHERN OBX/CURRITUCK.

A COLD FRNT AND ASSOCIATED LO PRES PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE THRU TDA
AS SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. N WINDS REMAIN RATHER STRONG THIS
MORNG...WITH GALE CONDS CONTINUING THRU 7 AM FOR SRN CSTL WTRS AND
THE SOUND...AND SCA ELSEWHERE. WAVES OVER THE BAY WILL BE 3-5
FT...WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS AT 6-10 FT. ALL MARINE HEADLINES END
DURING THE DAY TDA AS WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE AS THE HI BLDS IN.
SEAS OVER SRN CSTL WTRS MAY REMAIN AOA 5 FT THRU THIS EVENG.
BENIGN MARINE CONDS EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND WITH THE HI
REMAINING IN THE VICINITY AND SLOWLY SLIDING OFFSHORE. THE NEXT LO
PRES SYSTM AFFECTS THE REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PRECIPITATION AND MELTING SNOW WILL CAUSE MANY AREA RIVER LEVELS
WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME REACHING
THREE QUARTERS BANKFULL OR HIGHER. THE JAMES RIVER AT RICHMOND
WESTHAM IS FORECAST TO GO INTO MINOR FLOOD ON SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING 3/6:
 RIC...15 IN 1960
 ORF...20 IN 1901
 SBY...13 IN 1968
 ECG...20 IN 1960

RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR 3/6:
 RIC...28 IN 1901
 ORF...28 IN 1901
 SBY...31 IN 1960
 ECG...37 IN 1960

RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY 3/7:
 RIC...12 IN 1960
 ORF...17 IN 1899
 SBY...11 IN 1960
 ECG...17 IN 1960

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-
     650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...AJZ/TMG
AVIATION...MAS/DAP
MARINE...MAS
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 061909
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
209 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING A
STEADY MODERATING TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO THE INTERIOR
NORTHEAST. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TODAY,
RESULTING IN COLD BUT MAINLY SUNNY/DRY DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
THE PRESENCE OF AN ARCTIC INVERSION WILL LIMIT MIXING...AND HIGHS
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 30S (ABOUT -2 ST DEV)
DESPITE THE EARLY MARCH SUN.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT, ALLOWING FOR
CLEAR AND UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS. MANY LOCATIONS WILL
EXPERIENCE LOWS IN THE LOW/MID TEENS...WHICH AGAIN ARE NEARLY -2
ST DEV FROM THE SEASONAL MEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING ZONAL FLOW THIS WEEKEND WILL PUSH THE ARCTIC HIGH WELL
OFFSHORE. ADDITIONALLY ANY NRN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL STAY WELL N OF
THE MID ATLANTIC. SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A SUBSTANTIAL
MODERATING TREND...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONAL NORMALS
BY SUNDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S OVER
INTERIOR VA AND NE NC...WITH LOW/MID 40S OVER THE ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL SE VA/NE NC. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER
50S...WITH LOCALLY COOLER READINGS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC
COAST. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE MILDER AND RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. SKY COVER SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR/SUNNY...WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE N.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/CMC/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND THESE MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR. MORE OF A SPLIT/ZONAL
PATTERN WILL AFFECT THE CNTRL/ERN U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD
RESULTING IN NEAR OR SLGTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACRS THE FCST AREA.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACRS THE REGION SUN NGT INTO MON MORNG
POSSIBLY TRIGGERING ISLTD RAIN SHOWERS. MON NGT INTO TUE NGT...SFC
HI PRES WILL BE SLIDING ACRS EXTRM NRN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...WHILE WEAK LO PRES WILL BE MOVING FM THE GULF OF MEXICO
ENE AND OFF THE SE CST. AS A RESULT...SOME DEEPER LO LVL MOISTURE
WILL LIFT NWRD INTO AT LEAST SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. 00Z
GFS/CMC/ECMWF EACH TRENDED NWD WITH THIS SYSTM...SO POPS HAVE BEEN
TRENDED UPWARD TO 30-40% N TO 40-50% S. OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY
WX...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE SLGT CHC OVR NE NC COUNTIES...FOR WED AFTN
THRU THU AS HI PRES BLDS FARTHER S. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE
MID 30S TO LWR 40S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 40S TO
UPR 50S MON AND TUE...AND IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS WILL BE FOUND AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH SOME CLOUDS NR 3K
FT COMING OFF THE OCEAN NR KSBY ATTM. SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE
W WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO DIMINISH THIS AFTN AND ESPECIALLY TNGT
AS THE HI SLIDES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.

DRY WX AND VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE WEEKEND WITH THE HI
REMAINING IN THE VICINITY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN MON
NIGHT/TUE WITH THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM.

&&

.MARINE...
QUICK UPDATE TO REFLECT EXPIRATION OF HIGH SURF ADVY FOR THE
NORTHERN OBX/CURRITUCK.

A COLD FRNT AND ASSOCIATED LO PRES PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE THRU TDA
AS SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. N WINDS REMAIN RATHER STRONG THIS
MORNG...WITH GALE CONDS CONTINUING THRU 7 AM FOR SRN CSTL WTRS AND
THE SOUND...AND SCA ELSEWHERE. WAVES OVER THE BAY WILL BE 3-5
FT...WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS AT 6-10 FT. ALL MARINE HEADLINES END
DURING THE DAY TDA AS WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE AS THE HI BLDS IN.
SEAS OVER SRN CSTL WTRS MAY REMAIN AOA 5 FT THRU THIS EVENG.
BENIGN MARINE CONDS EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND WITH THE HI
REMAINING IN THE VICINITY AND SLOWLY SLIDING OFFSHORE. THE NEXT LO
PRES SYSTM AFFECTS THE REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PRECIPITATION AND MELTING SNOW WILL CAUSE MANY AREA RIVER LEVELS
WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME REACHING
THREE QUARTERS BANKFULL OR HIGHER. THE JAMES RIVER AT RICHMOND
WESTHAM IS FORECAST TO GO INTO MINOR FLOOD ON SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING 3/6:
 RIC...15 IN 1960
 ORF...20 IN 1901
 SBY...13 IN 1968
 ECG...20 IN 1960

RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR 3/6:
 RIC...28 IN 1901
 ORF...28 IN 1901
 SBY...31 IN 1960
 ECG...37 IN 1960

RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY 3/7:
 RIC...12 IN 1960
 ORF...17 IN 1899
 SBY...11 IN 1960
 ECG...17 IN 1960

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-
     650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...AJZ/TMG
AVIATION...MAS/DAP
MARINE...MAS
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 061827
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
127 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEAR SKIES WILL GRADUALLY BE REPLACED BY CLOUDS THROUGH SATURDAY
AS COLD AIR SLOWLY ERODES THIS WEEKEND. MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO FINALLY RETURN BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS AN
EXCEEDINGLY WEAK...MOISTURE STARVED...AND ESSENTIALLY SURFACE
DISCONNECTED SYSTEM IS TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION. WITH LITTLE
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM
THIS SYSTEM. THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE A SLOW INCREASE IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...AS WELL AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID AND HIGH CLOUD INCREASE.
THE EFFECTS OF THIS WILL BASICALLY BE TO HOLD BACK TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNSET...WITH LITTLE MORE FANFARE THAN THAT.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...THE GRADIENT FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD
INCREASE JUST A BIT...ALTHOUGH THE PREPONDERANCE OF GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS OUR BOUNDARY LAYER MAY DECOUPLE FROM THE WEST VIRGINIA
PANHANDLE EASTWARD BEFORE THIS OCCURS. ADDITIONALLY...SOME
CLEARING MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR AN INTERLUDE BETWEEN THE WEAK SYSTEM
THIS EVENING AND ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE THAT APPROACHES FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DECOUPLING COMBINED WITH COME CLEARING SHOULD
ALLOW FOR MANY AREAS TO DROP A FAIR BIT TONIGHT...EVEN AS MOS
GUIDANCE FAILS TO SHOW MUCH DIURNAL FALL AT ALL. THAT SAID...LOWS
WERE FORECAST COMBINING THE COLDER END OF GUIDANCE...AND SHOULD
CLEARING MATERIALIZE IN A MORE WIDESPREAD FASHION...SINGLE DIGITS
MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.

BY SATURDAY...CLOUDS WILL AGAIN BE ON THE INCREASE. WHILE MODEL
SOLUTIONS REALLY HAVE FAILED TO TREND MUCH STRONGER WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE...THEY ARE MANAGING TO KICK UP LAYER MOISTURE
A BIT. ADDITIONALLY...FAIRLY UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SEEM
TO BE GENERATED...AND THE MAJORITY OF THE LIFT IN TIME HEIGHT
SECTIONS SEEMS TO BE WORKING ON THE UNSTABLE PORTION OF THE
PROFILE AS THE SYSTEM PASSES. BECAUSE THE MAJORITY OF THE LIFT
TRAVERSES TO OUR NORTH...POPS WERE GENERALLY BUILT TO FAVOR THE
I-80 CORRIDOR AND TAPER SOUTHWARD...WITH MOISTURE LIKELY BEING TOO
LEAN TO SQUEEZE OUT ANYTHING SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH.

SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THAT WET BULBING
SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
SNOW. THIS SEEMS LIKELY EVEN AS WARM ADVECTION AND EFFICIENT
MIXING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MAY WELL WARM VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE CWA
ABOVE FREEZING BY AFTERNOON. IN FACT...ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
CWA...EVEN A 40 DEGREE READING WOULD NOT BE TOO SHOCKING. THIS IS
A FAR CRY FROM THE BELOW ZERO READINGS WE HAD THIS MORNING...AND
DOWNRIGHT TROPICAL COMPARED TO WHAT FEBRUARY WAS LIKE. IT
CERTAINLY SEEMS LIKE OLD MAN WINTER MAY BE HAVING HIS BACK BROKEN
IN OUR AREA VERY SHORTLY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...AND MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RELEGATED TO JUST BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
ALONG THE NORTH.

DEEPER MID-LEVEL WAVE PASSING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WILL REINFORCE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING SOUTH OF LAKE
ERIE AND DAMMED UP AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR EAST.
MEANWHILE...MOISTURE ABOVE 700MB IS TRANSIENT AND MOVES QUICKLY
EAST OF THE AREA. THINKING THAT REALLY LIGHT SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION TYPE. BUT...WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE CONFINED
TO THE LOW-LEVELS AND THE TOP OF THAT MOISTURE AROUND -8C...THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE EXISTS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
SURROUNDING EXTENT OF MOISTURE AND TIMING...SO CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE GRIDS. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS WITH FUTURE RUNS OF HIGHER-RES MODELS.

FLOW BEGINS TO GO MORE ZONAL TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE UNDER MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A BRIEF BREAK BEFORE MVFR CIGS
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLOWLY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 061827
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
127 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEAR SKIES WILL GRADUALLY BE REPLACED BY CLOUDS THROUGH SATURDAY
AS COLD AIR SLOWLY ERODES THIS WEEKEND. MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO FINALLY RETURN BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS AN
EXCEEDINGLY WEAK...MOISTURE STARVED...AND ESSENTIALLY SURFACE
DISCONNECTED SYSTEM IS TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION. WITH LITTLE
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM
THIS SYSTEM. THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE A SLOW INCREASE IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...AS WELL AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID AND HIGH CLOUD INCREASE.
THE EFFECTS OF THIS WILL BASICALLY BE TO HOLD BACK TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNSET...WITH LITTLE MORE FANFARE THAN THAT.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...THE GRADIENT FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD
INCREASE JUST A BIT...ALTHOUGH THE PREPONDERANCE OF GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS OUR BOUNDARY LAYER MAY DECOUPLE FROM THE WEST VIRGINIA
PANHANDLE EASTWARD BEFORE THIS OCCURS. ADDITIONALLY...SOME
CLEARING MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR AN INTERLUDE BETWEEN THE WEAK SYSTEM
THIS EVENING AND ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE THAT APPROACHES FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DECOUPLING COMBINED WITH COME CLEARING SHOULD
ALLOW FOR MANY AREAS TO DROP A FAIR BIT TONIGHT...EVEN AS MOS
GUIDANCE FAILS TO SHOW MUCH DIURNAL FALL AT ALL. THAT SAID...LOWS
WERE FORECAST COMBINING THE COLDER END OF GUIDANCE...AND SHOULD
CLEARING MATERIALIZE IN A MORE WIDESPREAD FASHION...SINGLE DIGITS
MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.

BY SATURDAY...CLOUDS WILL AGAIN BE ON THE INCREASE. WHILE MODEL
SOLUTIONS REALLY HAVE FAILED TO TREND MUCH STRONGER WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE...THEY ARE MANAGING TO KICK UP LAYER MOISTURE
A BIT. ADDITIONALLY...FAIRLY UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SEEM
TO BE GENERATED...AND THE MAJORITY OF THE LIFT IN TIME HEIGHT
SECTIONS SEEMS TO BE WORKING ON THE UNSTABLE PORTION OF THE
PROFILE AS THE SYSTEM PASSES. BECAUSE THE MAJORITY OF THE LIFT
TRAVERSES TO OUR NORTH...POPS WERE GENERALLY BUILT TO FAVOR THE
I-80 CORRIDOR AND TAPER SOUTHWARD...WITH MOISTURE LIKELY BEING TOO
LEAN TO SQUEEZE OUT ANYTHING SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH.

SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THAT WET BULBING
SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
SNOW. THIS SEEMS LIKELY EVEN AS WARM ADVECTION AND EFFICIENT
MIXING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MAY WELL WARM VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE CWA
ABOVE FREEZING BY AFTERNOON. IN FACT...ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
CWA...EVEN A 40 DEGREE READING WOULD NOT BE TOO SHOCKING. THIS IS
A FAR CRY FROM THE BELOW ZERO READINGS WE HAD THIS MORNING...AND
DOWNRIGHT TROPICAL COMPARED TO WHAT FEBRUARY WAS LIKE. IT
CERTAINLY SEEMS LIKE OLD MAN WINTER MAY BE HAVING HIS BACK BROKEN
IN OUR AREA VERY SHORTLY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...AND MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RELEGATED TO JUST BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
ALONG THE NORTH.

DEEPER MID-LEVEL WAVE PASSING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WILL REINFORCE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING SOUTH OF LAKE
ERIE AND DAMMED UP AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR EAST.
MEANWHILE...MOISTURE ABOVE 700MB IS TRANSIENT AND MOVES QUICKLY
EAST OF THE AREA. THINKING THAT REALLY LIGHT SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION TYPE. BUT...WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE CONFINED
TO THE LOW-LEVELS AND THE TOP OF THAT MOISTURE AROUND -8C...THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE EXISTS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
SURROUNDING EXTENT OF MOISTURE AND TIMING...SO CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE GRIDS. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS WITH FUTURE RUNS OF HIGHER-RES MODELS.

FLOW BEGINS TO GO MORE ZONAL TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE UNDER MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A BRIEF BREAK BEFORE MVFR CIGS
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLOWLY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 061807
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
107 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AND THEN SINK SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTH LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
SHOULD PASS ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
PREDICTED TO FORM ON THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST TUESDAY AND THEN MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE. A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE, ONLY A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WERE NEEDED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING PERIOD. WE MAINLY USED THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE TO EDIT
THESE ELEMENTS, AS THIS DATA WAS REPRESENTATIVE OF THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

OTHERWISE, FAIR WEATHER AND COLD TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. SKIES WILL BE CLR THIS
MORNING...AND THEN THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH LOW/MID
20S NORTH AND MID 20S TO PERHAPS LOW 30S OVER METRO PHILADELPHIA
AND OVER THE DELMARVA. WINDS WILL BE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
MPH THIS MORNING AND THEN BECOME WEST OR SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH BY
DUSK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN THU NIGHT AND WITH THE AMPLE
SNOW COVER ACROSS THE REGION...LOW TEMPERATURES COULD BE AS COLD (OR
PERHAPS COLDER) THAN THU NIGHTS READINGS. PRESENTLY WE HAVE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH TEENS ALONG THE SHORE AND 12 FOR PHL.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 500MB INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER OFF THE WRF VS THE GFS, OVERALL
THEY WERE SPLIT AT 850MB AND BOTH ABOUT 1C TOO COLD AT 925MB ON
AVERAGE. AFTER HAVING THREE WINTRY PCPN EVENTS IN THE FIRST FIVE DAYS
OF MARCH, THE LONG TERM REMAINS RELATIVELY MORE SUBDUED WITH A MUCH
ANTICIPATED RETURN (EVEN IF ITS JUST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS) OF NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE ONE CHANGE TONIGHT VS LAST NIGHT IS THE
INCREASING CHANCE THAT A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MIGHT BRING SOME RAIN
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

THE MODERATING TREND WILL START ON SATURDAY AFTER A COLD COLD COLD
MORNING. MID LEVEL WAA ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHOULD BRING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO OUR CWA, ESPECIALLY
NORTH. IN SPITE OF THIS, WE WENT TOWARD THE HIGHER SET OF STAT
GUIDANCE. TODAY (FRIDAY) WILL BE A GOOD LITMUS TEST IF STAT
GUIDANCE COLD BIAS IN SPITE OF AMPLE SNOW COVER CONTINUES. AS FAR
AS SNOW SHOWERS, THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH OF A CHANGE TO THE
GEOGRAPHICAL EXTENT OF MEASURABLE PCPN REACHING DEEPER INTO OUR
CWA. ONLY CHANGE WE MADE, WAS TO START THE LOW CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS FAR NORTH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SHOULD PASS THROUGH
OUR CWA ON SATURDAY NIGHT. NOT MUCH DEEP MOISTURE TO GENERATE
SHOWERS. LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WAS KEPT FAR NORTH. MODELS ARE
INDICATING MORE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS (POSSIBLY TRAPPED UNDER AN
INVERSION NORTH) AROUND AND THIS IS REASON FOR MUCH HIGHER MINS.

ON SUNDAY, SOME WEAK PVA AND A JET STREAK ARE PREDICTED TO PASS
ACROSS OUR CWA, LEANING NORTH. STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL IF WE HAVE
THE GEOGRAPHY STRAIGHT, THE JET STREAK ITSELF LOOKS MORE CERTAIN. WE
PUT IN A CHANCE OF FLURRIES NORTH AS A PROXY. WHILE SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST LACK OF ICE COULD BE A PROBLEM (ESPECIALLY ON THE MOISTURE
TRAPPED NAM SOUNDINGS), WESTERLY WINDS ARE NORMALLY NOT A FREEZING
DRIZZLE DIRECTION IN OUR AREA. WHILE COLDER AIR (RELATIVE TO
SATURDAY) IS PREDICTED TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA, IT WARMS BEYOND
SATURDAY AT 925MB. THUS REASON FOR BUMP UP IN MAX TEMPS.

A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. BY
THEN AIR MASS IS EVEN SLIGHTLY WARMER AND WE EXPECT THE SNOW COVER
TO BE LOSING ITS EFFECTIVENESS ON SLOWING THE RISE OF MAX TEMPS.

CHANGE THEN COMES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND MORE SO TUESDAY AS ALL THE
RUNS HAVE TRENDED NORTH WITH A LOW FORMING OFF THE OLD STALLED
FRONT. UNLESS PCPN FLIES IN ON MONDAY NIGHT, THERMALLY IT LOOKS WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN, ESPECIALLY GIVEN SOUTH IS FAVORED OVER NORTH.
FASTER TIMING COUPLED WITH A MORE NORTHERN EXTENSION MIGHT BE
PROBLEMATIC FOR PTYPE. IN ITS WAKE, AN EVEN MILDER DAY IS
PREDICTED FOR WEDNESDAY BEFORE A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BRINGS COLDER AIR BACK INTO OUR CWA POSSIBLY AS SOON AS THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLR THIS MORNING AND
THEN SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHERLY OR NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS EARLY TODAY THEN GO LIGHT
WEST/SOUTHWEST TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR OVERALL.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SOME MVFR CONDITIONS DUE MAINLY
TO CIGS AS A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES BY LATER SATURDAY. HOWEVER,
ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE
TERMINALS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...VFR OVERALL.

TUESDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND
TERMINALS. PTYPE SHOULD BE RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA FOR OUR CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS HAS BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS FOR ALL OF OUR
COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY, WITH SEAS
RANGING FROM 2 TO 4 FEET FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND 1 TO 2 FOOT
SEAS FOR DELAWARE BAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THE
WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING SATURDAY.
THERE IS A CHC FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY SATURDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WE ARE ANTICIPATING SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

TUESDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
PENDING THE PROXIMITY OF THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PREDICTED TO FORM OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH A SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING WE HAVE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909


SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

IT APPEARS THAT READING AND ATLANTIC CITY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF GETTING TO THEIR RECORD LOW SATURDAY MORNING.
RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

RER`S POSTED FOR KILG AND KACY...BOTH 7.0 INCHES.

PHL HAD 7.5 AND ALLENTOWN 6.7.

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

FWIW...WATER EQUIVALENCE OF TOTAL SNOW DEPTH IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PA IS NOW WELL OVER 3 INCHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/GORSE
NEAR TERM...KLINE/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/GORSE/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/GORSE/KLINE/O`HARA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 061807
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
107 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AND THEN SINK SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTH LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
SHOULD PASS ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
PREDICTED TO FORM ON THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST TUESDAY AND THEN MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE. A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE, ONLY A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WERE NEEDED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING PERIOD. WE MAINLY USED THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE TO EDIT
THESE ELEMENTS, AS THIS DATA WAS REPRESENTATIVE OF THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

OTHERWISE, FAIR WEATHER AND COLD TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. SKIES WILL BE CLR THIS
MORNING...AND THEN THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH LOW/MID
20S NORTH AND MID 20S TO PERHAPS LOW 30S OVER METRO PHILADELPHIA
AND OVER THE DELMARVA. WINDS WILL BE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
MPH THIS MORNING AND THEN BECOME WEST OR SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH BY
DUSK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN THU NIGHT AND WITH THE AMPLE
SNOW COVER ACROSS THE REGION...LOW TEMPERATURES COULD BE AS COLD (OR
PERHAPS COLDER) THAN THU NIGHTS READINGS. PRESENTLY WE HAVE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH TEENS ALONG THE SHORE AND 12 FOR PHL.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 500MB INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER OFF THE WRF VS THE GFS, OVERALL
THEY WERE SPLIT AT 850MB AND BOTH ABOUT 1C TOO COLD AT 925MB ON
AVERAGE. AFTER HAVING THREE WINTRY PCPN EVENTS IN THE FIRST FIVE DAYS
OF MARCH, THE LONG TERM REMAINS RELATIVELY MORE SUBDUED WITH A MUCH
ANTICIPATED RETURN (EVEN IF ITS JUST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS) OF NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE ONE CHANGE TONIGHT VS LAST NIGHT IS THE
INCREASING CHANCE THAT A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MIGHT BRING SOME RAIN
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

THE MODERATING TREND WILL START ON SATURDAY AFTER A COLD COLD COLD
MORNING. MID LEVEL WAA ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHOULD BRING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO OUR CWA, ESPECIALLY
NORTH. IN SPITE OF THIS, WE WENT TOWARD THE HIGHER SET OF STAT
GUIDANCE. TODAY (FRIDAY) WILL BE A GOOD LITMUS TEST IF STAT
GUIDANCE COLD BIAS IN SPITE OF AMPLE SNOW COVER CONTINUES. AS FAR
AS SNOW SHOWERS, THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH OF A CHANGE TO THE
GEOGRAPHICAL EXTENT OF MEASURABLE PCPN REACHING DEEPER INTO OUR
CWA. ONLY CHANGE WE MADE, WAS TO START THE LOW CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS FAR NORTH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SHOULD PASS THROUGH
OUR CWA ON SATURDAY NIGHT. NOT MUCH DEEP MOISTURE TO GENERATE
SHOWERS. LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WAS KEPT FAR NORTH. MODELS ARE
INDICATING MORE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS (POSSIBLY TRAPPED UNDER AN
INVERSION NORTH) AROUND AND THIS IS REASON FOR MUCH HIGHER MINS.

ON SUNDAY, SOME WEAK PVA AND A JET STREAK ARE PREDICTED TO PASS
ACROSS OUR CWA, LEANING NORTH. STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL IF WE HAVE
THE GEOGRAPHY STRAIGHT, THE JET STREAK ITSELF LOOKS MORE CERTAIN. WE
PUT IN A CHANCE OF FLURRIES NORTH AS A PROXY. WHILE SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST LACK OF ICE COULD BE A PROBLEM (ESPECIALLY ON THE MOISTURE
TRAPPED NAM SOUNDINGS), WESTERLY WINDS ARE NORMALLY NOT A FREEZING
DRIZZLE DIRECTION IN OUR AREA. WHILE COLDER AIR (RELATIVE TO
SATURDAY) IS PREDICTED TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA, IT WARMS BEYOND
SATURDAY AT 925MB. THUS REASON FOR BUMP UP IN MAX TEMPS.

A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. BY
THEN AIR MASS IS EVEN SLIGHTLY WARMER AND WE EXPECT THE SNOW COVER
TO BE LOSING ITS EFFECTIVENESS ON SLOWING THE RISE OF MAX TEMPS.

CHANGE THEN COMES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND MORE SO TUESDAY AS ALL THE
RUNS HAVE TRENDED NORTH WITH A LOW FORMING OFF THE OLD STALLED
FRONT. UNLESS PCPN FLIES IN ON MONDAY NIGHT, THERMALLY IT LOOKS WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN, ESPECIALLY GIVEN SOUTH IS FAVORED OVER NORTH.
FASTER TIMING COUPLED WITH A MORE NORTHERN EXTENSION MIGHT BE
PROBLEMATIC FOR PTYPE. IN ITS WAKE, AN EVEN MILDER DAY IS
PREDICTED FOR WEDNESDAY BEFORE A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BRINGS COLDER AIR BACK INTO OUR CWA POSSIBLY AS SOON AS THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLR THIS MORNING AND
THEN SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHERLY OR NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS EARLY TODAY THEN GO LIGHT
WEST/SOUTHWEST TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR OVERALL.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SOME MVFR CONDITIONS DUE MAINLY
TO CIGS AS A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES BY LATER SATURDAY. HOWEVER,
ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE
TERMINALS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...VFR OVERALL.

TUESDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND
TERMINALS. PTYPE SHOULD BE RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA FOR OUR CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS HAS BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS FOR ALL OF OUR
COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY, WITH SEAS
RANGING FROM 2 TO 4 FEET FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND 1 TO 2 FOOT
SEAS FOR DELAWARE BAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THE
WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING SATURDAY.
THERE IS A CHC FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY SATURDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WE ARE ANTICIPATING SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

TUESDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
PENDING THE PROXIMITY OF THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PREDICTED TO FORM OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH A SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING WE HAVE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909


SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

IT APPEARS THAT READING AND ATLANTIC CITY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF GETTING TO THEIR RECORD LOW SATURDAY MORNING.
RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

RER`S POSTED FOR KILG AND KACY...BOTH 7.0 INCHES.

PHL HAD 7.5 AND ALLENTOWN 6.7.

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

FWIW...WATER EQUIVALENCE OF TOTAL SNOW DEPTH IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PA IS NOW WELL OVER 3 INCHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/GORSE
NEAR TERM...KLINE/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/GORSE/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/GORSE/KLINE/O`HARA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 061807
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
107 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AND THEN SINK SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTH LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
SHOULD PASS ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
PREDICTED TO FORM ON THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST TUESDAY AND THEN MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE. A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE, ONLY A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WERE NEEDED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING PERIOD. WE MAINLY USED THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE TO EDIT
THESE ELEMENTS, AS THIS DATA WAS REPRESENTATIVE OF THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

OTHERWISE, FAIR WEATHER AND COLD TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. SKIES WILL BE CLR THIS
MORNING...AND THEN THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH LOW/MID
20S NORTH AND MID 20S TO PERHAPS LOW 30S OVER METRO PHILADELPHIA
AND OVER THE DELMARVA. WINDS WILL BE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
MPH THIS MORNING AND THEN BECOME WEST OR SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH BY
DUSK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN THU NIGHT AND WITH THE AMPLE
SNOW COVER ACROSS THE REGION...LOW TEMPERATURES COULD BE AS COLD (OR
PERHAPS COLDER) THAN THU NIGHTS READINGS. PRESENTLY WE HAVE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH TEENS ALONG THE SHORE AND 12 FOR PHL.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 500MB INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER OFF THE WRF VS THE GFS, OVERALL
THEY WERE SPLIT AT 850MB AND BOTH ABOUT 1C TOO COLD AT 925MB ON
AVERAGE. AFTER HAVING THREE WINTRY PCPN EVENTS IN THE FIRST FIVE DAYS
OF MARCH, THE LONG TERM REMAINS RELATIVELY MORE SUBDUED WITH A MUCH
ANTICIPATED RETURN (EVEN IF ITS JUST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS) OF NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE ONE CHANGE TONIGHT VS LAST NIGHT IS THE
INCREASING CHANCE THAT A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MIGHT BRING SOME RAIN
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

THE MODERATING TREND WILL START ON SATURDAY AFTER A COLD COLD COLD
MORNING. MID LEVEL WAA ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHOULD BRING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO OUR CWA, ESPECIALLY
NORTH. IN SPITE OF THIS, WE WENT TOWARD THE HIGHER SET OF STAT
GUIDANCE. TODAY (FRIDAY) WILL BE A GOOD LITMUS TEST IF STAT
GUIDANCE COLD BIAS IN SPITE OF AMPLE SNOW COVER CONTINUES. AS FAR
AS SNOW SHOWERS, THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH OF A CHANGE TO THE
GEOGRAPHICAL EXTENT OF MEASURABLE PCPN REACHING DEEPER INTO OUR
CWA. ONLY CHANGE WE MADE, WAS TO START THE LOW CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS FAR NORTH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SHOULD PASS THROUGH
OUR CWA ON SATURDAY NIGHT. NOT MUCH DEEP MOISTURE TO GENERATE
SHOWERS. LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WAS KEPT FAR NORTH. MODELS ARE
INDICATING MORE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS (POSSIBLY TRAPPED UNDER AN
INVERSION NORTH) AROUND AND THIS IS REASON FOR MUCH HIGHER MINS.

ON SUNDAY, SOME WEAK PVA AND A JET STREAK ARE PREDICTED TO PASS
ACROSS OUR CWA, LEANING NORTH. STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL IF WE HAVE
THE GEOGRAPHY STRAIGHT, THE JET STREAK ITSELF LOOKS MORE CERTAIN. WE
PUT IN A CHANCE OF FLURRIES NORTH AS A PROXY. WHILE SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST LACK OF ICE COULD BE A PROBLEM (ESPECIALLY ON THE MOISTURE
TRAPPED NAM SOUNDINGS), WESTERLY WINDS ARE NORMALLY NOT A FREEZING
DRIZZLE DIRECTION IN OUR AREA. WHILE COLDER AIR (RELATIVE TO
SATURDAY) IS PREDICTED TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA, IT WARMS BEYOND
SATURDAY AT 925MB. THUS REASON FOR BUMP UP IN MAX TEMPS.

A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. BY
THEN AIR MASS IS EVEN SLIGHTLY WARMER AND WE EXPECT THE SNOW COVER
TO BE LOSING ITS EFFECTIVENESS ON SLOWING THE RISE OF MAX TEMPS.

CHANGE THEN COMES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND MORE SO TUESDAY AS ALL THE
RUNS HAVE TRENDED NORTH WITH A LOW FORMING OFF THE OLD STALLED
FRONT. UNLESS PCPN FLIES IN ON MONDAY NIGHT, THERMALLY IT LOOKS WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN, ESPECIALLY GIVEN SOUTH IS FAVORED OVER NORTH.
FASTER TIMING COUPLED WITH A MORE NORTHERN EXTENSION MIGHT BE
PROBLEMATIC FOR PTYPE. IN ITS WAKE, AN EVEN MILDER DAY IS
PREDICTED FOR WEDNESDAY BEFORE A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BRINGS COLDER AIR BACK INTO OUR CWA POSSIBLY AS SOON AS THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLR THIS MORNING AND
THEN SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHERLY OR NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS EARLY TODAY THEN GO LIGHT
WEST/SOUTHWEST TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR OVERALL.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SOME MVFR CONDITIONS DUE MAINLY
TO CIGS AS A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES BY LATER SATURDAY. HOWEVER,
ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE
TERMINALS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...VFR OVERALL.

TUESDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND
TERMINALS. PTYPE SHOULD BE RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA FOR OUR CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS HAS BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS FOR ALL OF OUR
COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY, WITH SEAS
RANGING FROM 2 TO 4 FEET FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND 1 TO 2 FOOT
SEAS FOR DELAWARE BAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THE
WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING SATURDAY.
THERE IS A CHC FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY SATURDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WE ARE ANTICIPATING SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

TUESDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
PENDING THE PROXIMITY OF THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PREDICTED TO FORM OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH A SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING WE HAVE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909


SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

IT APPEARS THAT READING AND ATLANTIC CITY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF GETTING TO THEIR RECORD LOW SATURDAY MORNING.
RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

RER`S POSTED FOR KILG AND KACY...BOTH 7.0 INCHES.

PHL HAD 7.5 AND ALLENTOWN 6.7.

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

FWIW...WATER EQUIVALENCE OF TOTAL SNOW DEPTH IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PA IS NOW WELL OVER 3 INCHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/GORSE
NEAR TERM...KLINE/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/GORSE/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/GORSE/KLINE/O`HARA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 061807
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
107 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AND THEN SINK SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTH LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
SHOULD PASS ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
PREDICTED TO FORM ON THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST TUESDAY AND THEN MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE. A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE, ONLY A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WERE NEEDED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING PERIOD. WE MAINLY USED THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE TO EDIT
THESE ELEMENTS, AS THIS DATA WAS REPRESENTATIVE OF THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

OTHERWISE, FAIR WEATHER AND COLD TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. SKIES WILL BE CLR THIS
MORNING...AND THEN THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH LOW/MID
20S NORTH AND MID 20S TO PERHAPS LOW 30S OVER METRO PHILADELPHIA
AND OVER THE DELMARVA. WINDS WILL BE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
MPH THIS MORNING AND THEN BECOME WEST OR SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH BY
DUSK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN THU NIGHT AND WITH THE AMPLE
SNOW COVER ACROSS THE REGION...LOW TEMPERATURES COULD BE AS COLD (OR
PERHAPS COLDER) THAN THU NIGHTS READINGS. PRESENTLY WE HAVE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH TEENS ALONG THE SHORE AND 12 FOR PHL.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 500MB INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER OFF THE WRF VS THE GFS, OVERALL
THEY WERE SPLIT AT 850MB AND BOTH ABOUT 1C TOO COLD AT 925MB ON
AVERAGE. AFTER HAVING THREE WINTRY PCPN EVENTS IN THE FIRST FIVE DAYS
OF MARCH, THE LONG TERM REMAINS RELATIVELY MORE SUBDUED WITH A MUCH
ANTICIPATED RETURN (EVEN IF ITS JUST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS) OF NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE ONE CHANGE TONIGHT VS LAST NIGHT IS THE
INCREASING CHANCE THAT A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MIGHT BRING SOME RAIN
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

THE MODERATING TREND WILL START ON SATURDAY AFTER A COLD COLD COLD
MORNING. MID LEVEL WAA ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHOULD BRING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO OUR CWA, ESPECIALLY
NORTH. IN SPITE OF THIS, WE WENT TOWARD THE HIGHER SET OF STAT
GUIDANCE. TODAY (FRIDAY) WILL BE A GOOD LITMUS TEST IF STAT
GUIDANCE COLD BIAS IN SPITE OF AMPLE SNOW COVER CONTINUES. AS FAR
AS SNOW SHOWERS, THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH OF A CHANGE TO THE
GEOGRAPHICAL EXTENT OF MEASURABLE PCPN REACHING DEEPER INTO OUR
CWA. ONLY CHANGE WE MADE, WAS TO START THE LOW CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS FAR NORTH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SHOULD PASS THROUGH
OUR CWA ON SATURDAY NIGHT. NOT MUCH DEEP MOISTURE TO GENERATE
SHOWERS. LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WAS KEPT FAR NORTH. MODELS ARE
INDICATING MORE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS (POSSIBLY TRAPPED UNDER AN
INVERSION NORTH) AROUND AND THIS IS REASON FOR MUCH HIGHER MINS.

ON SUNDAY, SOME WEAK PVA AND A JET STREAK ARE PREDICTED TO PASS
ACROSS OUR CWA, LEANING NORTH. STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL IF WE HAVE
THE GEOGRAPHY STRAIGHT, THE JET STREAK ITSELF LOOKS MORE CERTAIN. WE
PUT IN A CHANCE OF FLURRIES NORTH AS A PROXY. WHILE SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST LACK OF ICE COULD BE A PROBLEM (ESPECIALLY ON THE MOISTURE
TRAPPED NAM SOUNDINGS), WESTERLY WINDS ARE NORMALLY NOT A FREEZING
DRIZZLE DIRECTION IN OUR AREA. WHILE COLDER AIR (RELATIVE TO
SATURDAY) IS PREDICTED TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA, IT WARMS BEYOND
SATURDAY AT 925MB. THUS REASON FOR BUMP UP IN MAX TEMPS.

A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. BY
THEN AIR MASS IS EVEN SLIGHTLY WARMER AND WE EXPECT THE SNOW COVER
TO BE LOSING ITS EFFECTIVENESS ON SLOWING THE RISE OF MAX TEMPS.

CHANGE THEN COMES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND MORE SO TUESDAY AS ALL THE
RUNS HAVE TRENDED NORTH WITH A LOW FORMING OFF THE OLD STALLED
FRONT. UNLESS PCPN FLIES IN ON MONDAY NIGHT, THERMALLY IT LOOKS WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN, ESPECIALLY GIVEN SOUTH IS FAVORED OVER NORTH.
FASTER TIMING COUPLED WITH A MORE NORTHERN EXTENSION MIGHT BE
PROBLEMATIC FOR PTYPE. IN ITS WAKE, AN EVEN MILDER DAY IS
PREDICTED FOR WEDNESDAY BEFORE A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BRINGS COLDER AIR BACK INTO OUR CWA POSSIBLY AS SOON AS THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLR THIS MORNING AND
THEN SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHERLY OR NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS EARLY TODAY THEN GO LIGHT
WEST/SOUTHWEST TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR OVERALL.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SOME MVFR CONDITIONS DUE MAINLY
TO CIGS AS A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES BY LATER SATURDAY. HOWEVER,
ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE
TERMINALS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...VFR OVERALL.

TUESDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND
TERMINALS. PTYPE SHOULD BE RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA FOR OUR CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS HAS BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS FOR ALL OF OUR
COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY, WITH SEAS
RANGING FROM 2 TO 4 FEET FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND 1 TO 2 FOOT
SEAS FOR DELAWARE BAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THE
WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING SATURDAY.
THERE IS A CHC FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY SATURDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WE ARE ANTICIPATING SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

TUESDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
PENDING THE PROXIMITY OF THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PREDICTED TO FORM OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH A SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING WE HAVE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909


SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

IT APPEARS THAT READING AND ATLANTIC CITY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF GETTING TO THEIR RECORD LOW SATURDAY MORNING.
RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

RER`S POSTED FOR KILG AND KACY...BOTH 7.0 INCHES.

PHL HAD 7.5 AND ALLENTOWN 6.7.

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

FWIW...WATER EQUIVALENCE OF TOTAL SNOW DEPTH IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PA IS NOW WELL OVER 3 INCHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/GORSE
NEAR TERM...KLINE/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/GORSE/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/GORSE/KLINE/O`HARA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 061751
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1251 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES AND A RELATIVELY STRONG INVERSION ALONG WITH FRESH
SNOW ON THE GROUND ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURE FREE FALL THIS MORNING.
AN ALL TIME MARCH LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD WAS BROKEN AT
PITTSBURGH...AND THE STAGE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY HAS THUS BEEN
SET.

LAYER RH VALUES ARE REALLY RATHER PALTRY...AND WILL FAIL TO
DEVIATE MUCH THROUGH THE DAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
MEANDERS EASTWARD. THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE A BIT
ALLOWING FOR SOME SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
SHOULD START TO ALLOW FOR SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO
INCREASE BY THAT JUNCTURE. THAT SAID...ADVECTION IS LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE AND UPSTREAM SATELLITE VIEWS COINCIDE WITH THIS
THINKING. A FEW CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP BASED UPON MODEL
SOUNDINGS...PARTICULARLY GIVEN STRONG SUNSHINE THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE DAY. WITH ALL OF THAT IN MIND...A SUNNY TREND TOWARD
PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD BE EXPECTED.

STRONG MARCH SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR RATHER AGGRESSIVE
TEMPERATURE RISES THROUGH THE DAY. MOS GUIDANCE SEEMED MUCH TOO
LOW WHEN ACCOUNTING FOR THE STRONG MARCH SUN...SO HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S WERE PROJECTED BY AFTERNOON. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...AND MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RELEGATED TO JUST BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
ALONG THE NORTH.

DEEPER MID-LEVEL WAVE PASSING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WILL REINFORCE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING SOUTH OF LAKE
ERIE AND DAMMED UP AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR EAST.
MEANWHILE...MOISTURE ABOVE 700MB IS TRANSIENT AND MOVES QUICKLY
EAST OF THE AREA. THINKING THAT REALLY LIGHT SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION TYPE. BUT...WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE
LOW-LEVELS AND THE TOP OF THAT MOISTURE AROUND -8C...THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE EXISTS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
SURROUNDING EXTENT OF MOISTURE AND TIMING...SO CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE GRIDS. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS WITH FUTURE RUNS OF HIGHER-RES MODELS.

FLOW BEGINS TO GO MORE ZONAL TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE UNDER MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. CU RULE INDICATES JUST
SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CU FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING THAT FKL AND DUJ COULD GO BROKEN IN THE AFTERNOON
PROMPTING THE INCLUSION OF HIGH MVFR CIGS AT THESE PORTS.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 061751
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1251 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES AND A RELATIVELY STRONG INVERSION ALONG WITH FRESH
SNOW ON THE GROUND ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURE FREE FALL THIS MORNING.
AN ALL TIME MARCH LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD WAS BROKEN AT
PITTSBURGH...AND THE STAGE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY HAS THUS BEEN
SET.

LAYER RH VALUES ARE REALLY RATHER PALTRY...AND WILL FAIL TO
DEVIATE MUCH THROUGH THE DAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
MEANDERS EASTWARD. THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE A BIT
ALLOWING FOR SOME SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
SHOULD START TO ALLOW FOR SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO
INCREASE BY THAT JUNCTURE. THAT SAID...ADVECTION IS LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE AND UPSTREAM SATELLITE VIEWS COINCIDE WITH THIS
THINKING. A FEW CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP BASED UPON MODEL
SOUNDINGS...PARTICULARLY GIVEN STRONG SUNSHINE THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE DAY. WITH ALL OF THAT IN MIND...A SUNNY TREND TOWARD
PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD BE EXPECTED.

STRONG MARCH SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR RATHER AGGRESSIVE
TEMPERATURE RISES THROUGH THE DAY. MOS GUIDANCE SEEMED MUCH TOO
LOW WHEN ACCOUNTING FOR THE STRONG MARCH SUN...SO HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S WERE PROJECTED BY AFTERNOON. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...AND MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RELEGATED TO JUST BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
ALONG THE NORTH.

DEEPER MID-LEVEL WAVE PASSING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WILL REINFORCE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING SOUTH OF LAKE
ERIE AND DAMMED UP AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR EAST.
MEANWHILE...MOISTURE ABOVE 700MB IS TRANSIENT AND MOVES QUICKLY
EAST OF THE AREA. THINKING THAT REALLY LIGHT SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION TYPE. BUT...WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE
LOW-LEVELS AND THE TOP OF THAT MOISTURE AROUND -8C...THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE EXISTS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
SURROUNDING EXTENT OF MOISTURE AND TIMING...SO CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE GRIDS. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS WITH FUTURE RUNS OF HIGHER-RES MODELS.

FLOW BEGINS TO GO MORE ZONAL TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE UNDER MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. CU RULE INDICATES JUST
SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CU FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING THAT FKL AND DUJ COULD GO BROKEN IN THE AFTERNOON
PROMPTING THE INCLUSION OF HIGH MVFR CIGS AT THESE PORTS.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 061751
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1251 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES AND A RELATIVELY STRONG INVERSION ALONG WITH FRESH
SNOW ON THE GROUND ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURE FREE FALL THIS MORNING.
AN ALL TIME MARCH LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD WAS BROKEN AT
PITTSBURGH...AND THE STAGE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY HAS THUS BEEN
SET.

LAYER RH VALUES ARE REALLY RATHER PALTRY...AND WILL FAIL TO
DEVIATE MUCH THROUGH THE DAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
MEANDERS EASTWARD. THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE A BIT
ALLOWING FOR SOME SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
SHOULD START TO ALLOW FOR SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO
INCREASE BY THAT JUNCTURE. THAT SAID...ADVECTION IS LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE AND UPSTREAM SATELLITE VIEWS COINCIDE WITH THIS
THINKING. A FEW CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP BASED UPON MODEL
SOUNDINGS...PARTICULARLY GIVEN STRONG SUNSHINE THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE DAY. WITH ALL OF THAT IN MIND...A SUNNY TREND TOWARD
PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD BE EXPECTED.

STRONG MARCH SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR RATHER AGGRESSIVE
TEMPERATURE RISES THROUGH THE DAY. MOS GUIDANCE SEEMED MUCH TOO
LOW WHEN ACCOUNTING FOR THE STRONG MARCH SUN...SO HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S WERE PROJECTED BY AFTERNOON. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...AND MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RELEGATED TO JUST BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
ALONG THE NORTH.

DEEPER MID-LEVEL WAVE PASSING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WILL REINFORCE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING SOUTH OF LAKE
ERIE AND DAMMED UP AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR EAST.
MEANWHILE...MOISTURE ABOVE 700MB IS TRANSIENT AND MOVES QUICKLY
EAST OF THE AREA. THINKING THAT REALLY LIGHT SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION TYPE. BUT...WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE
LOW-LEVELS AND THE TOP OF THAT MOISTURE AROUND -8C...THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE EXISTS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
SURROUNDING EXTENT OF MOISTURE AND TIMING...SO CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE GRIDS. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS WITH FUTURE RUNS OF HIGHER-RES MODELS.

FLOW BEGINS TO GO MORE ZONAL TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE UNDER MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. CU RULE INDICATES JUST
SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CU FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING THAT FKL AND DUJ COULD GO BROKEN IN THE AFTERNOON
PROMPTING THE INCLUSION OF HIGH MVFR CIGS AT THESE PORTS.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 061751
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1251 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES AND A RELATIVELY STRONG INVERSION ALONG WITH FRESH
SNOW ON THE GROUND ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURE FREE FALL THIS MORNING.
AN ALL TIME MARCH LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD WAS BROKEN AT
PITTSBURGH...AND THE STAGE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY HAS THUS BEEN
SET.

LAYER RH VALUES ARE REALLY RATHER PALTRY...AND WILL FAIL TO
DEVIATE MUCH THROUGH THE DAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
MEANDERS EASTWARD. THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE A BIT
ALLOWING FOR SOME SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
SHOULD START TO ALLOW FOR SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO
INCREASE BY THAT JUNCTURE. THAT SAID...ADVECTION IS LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE AND UPSTREAM SATELLITE VIEWS COINCIDE WITH THIS
THINKING. A FEW CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP BASED UPON MODEL
SOUNDINGS...PARTICULARLY GIVEN STRONG SUNSHINE THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE DAY. WITH ALL OF THAT IN MIND...A SUNNY TREND TOWARD
PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD BE EXPECTED.

STRONG MARCH SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR RATHER AGGRESSIVE
TEMPERATURE RISES THROUGH THE DAY. MOS GUIDANCE SEEMED MUCH TOO
LOW WHEN ACCOUNTING FOR THE STRONG MARCH SUN...SO HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S WERE PROJECTED BY AFTERNOON. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...AND MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RELEGATED TO JUST BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
ALONG THE NORTH.

DEEPER MID-LEVEL WAVE PASSING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WILL REINFORCE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING SOUTH OF LAKE
ERIE AND DAMMED UP AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR EAST.
MEANWHILE...MOISTURE ABOVE 700MB IS TRANSIENT AND MOVES QUICKLY
EAST OF THE AREA. THINKING THAT REALLY LIGHT SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION TYPE. BUT...WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE
LOW-LEVELS AND THE TOP OF THAT MOISTURE AROUND -8C...THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE EXISTS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
SURROUNDING EXTENT OF MOISTURE AND TIMING...SO CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE GRIDS. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS WITH FUTURE RUNS OF HIGHER-RES MODELS.

FLOW BEGINS TO GO MORE ZONAL TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE UNDER MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. CU RULE INDICATES JUST
SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CU FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING THAT FKL AND DUJ COULD GO BROKEN IN THE AFTERNOON
PROMPTING THE INCLUSION OF HIGH MVFR CIGS AT THESE PORTS.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 061510
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1010 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING A
STEADY MODERATING TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO THE INTERIOR
NORTHEAST. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TODAY,
RESULTING IN COLD BUT MAINLY SUNNY/DRY DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
THE PRESENCE OF AN ARCTIC INVERSION WILL LIMIT MIXING...AND HIGHS
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 30S (ABOUT -2 ST DEV)
DESPITE THE EARLY MARCH SUN.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT, ALLOWING FOR
CLEAR AND UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS. MANY LOCATIONS WILL
EXPERIENCE LOWS IN THE LOW/MID TEENS...WHICH AGAIN ARE NEARLY -2
ST DEV FROM THE SEASONAL MEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING ZONAL FLOW THIS WEEKEND WILL PUSH THE ARCTIC HIGH WELL
OFFSHORE. ADDITIONALLY ANY NRN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL STAY WELL N OF
THE MID ATLANTIC. SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A SUBSTANTIAL
MODERATING TREND...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONAL NORMALS
BY SUNDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S OVER
INTERIOR VA AND NE NC...WITH LOW/MID 40S OVER THE ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL SE VA/NE NC. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER
50S...WITH LOCALLY COOLER READINGS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC
COAST. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE MILDER AND RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. SKY COVER SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR/SUNNY...WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE N.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/CMC/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND THESE MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR. MORE OF A SPLIT/ZONAL
PATTERN WILL AFFECT THE CNTRL/ERN U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD
RESULTING IN NEAR OR SLGTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACRS THE FCST AREA.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACRS THE REGION SUN NGT INTO MON MORNG
POSSIBLY TRIGGERING ISLTD RAIN SHOWERS. MON NGT INTO TUE NGT...SFC
HI PRES WILL BE SLIDING ACRS EXTRM NRN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...WHILE WEAK LO PRES WILL BE MOVING FM THE GULF OF MEXICO
ENE AND OFF THE SE CST. AS A RESULT...SOME DEEPER LO LVL MOISTURE
WILL LIFT NWRD INTO AT LEAST SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. 00Z
GFS/CMC/ECMWF EACH TRENDED NWD WITH THIS SYSTM...SO POPS HAVE BEEN
TRENDED UPWARD TO 30-40% N TO 40-50% S. OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY
WX...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE SLGT CHC OVR NE NC COUNTIES...FOR WED AFTN
THRU THU AS HI PRES BLDS FARTHER S. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE
MID 30S TO LWR 40S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 40S TO
UPR 50S MON AND TUE...AND IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 11Z...VFR CONDS ARE FOUND AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH SOME
CLOUDS NR 3K FT COMING OFF THE BAY NR KORF ATTM. THIS MAY CONTINUE
THRU MID MORNG BEFORE SKIES BCM SUNNY...AS THEY ALREADY ARE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. OTWS...NLY WINDS REMAIN BREEZY THIS MORNG
AS SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTN
AND ESPECIALLY TNGT AS THE HI SLIDES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. DRY WX
AND VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE WEEKEND WITH THE HI REMAINING IN
THE VICINITY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN MON NIGHT/TUE WITH
THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM.

&&

.MARINE...
QUICK UPDATE TO REFLECT EXPIRATION OF HIGH SURF ADVY FOR THE
NORTHERN OBX/CURRITUCK.

A COLD FRNT AND ASSOCIATED LO PRES PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE THRU TDA
AS SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. N WINDS REMAIN RATHER STRONG THIS
MORNG...WITH GALE CONDS CONTINUING THRU 7 AM FOR SRN CSTL WTRS AND
THE SOUND...AND SCA ELSEWHERE. WAVES OVER THE BAY WILL BE 3-5
FT...WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS AT 6-10 FT. ALL MARINE HEADLINES END
DURING THE DAY TDA AS WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE AS THE HI BLDS IN.
SEAS OVER SRN CSTL WTRS MAY REMAIN AOA 5 FT THRU THIS EVENG.
BENIGN MARINE CONDS EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND WITH THE HI
REMAINING IN THE VICINITY AND SLOWLY SLIDING OFFSHORE. THE NEXT LO
PRES SYSTM AFFECTS THE REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PRECIPITATION AND MELTING SNOW WILL CAUSE MANY AREA RIVER LEVELS
WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME REACHING
THREE QUARTERS BANKFULL OR HIGHER. THE JAMES RIVER AT RICHMOND
WESTHAM IS FORECAST TO GO INTO MINOR FLOOD ON SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING 3/6:
 RIC...15 IN 1960
 ORF...20 IN 1901
 SBY...13 IN 1968
 ECG...20 IN 1960

RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR 3/6:
 RIC...28 IN 1901
 ORF...28 IN 1901
 SBY...31 IN 1960
 ECG...37 IN 1960

RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY 3/7:
 RIC...12 IN 1960
 ORF...17 IN 1899
 SBY...11 IN 1960
 ECG...17 IN 1960

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-
     650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...AJZ/TMG
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 061510
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1010 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING A
STEADY MODERATING TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO THE INTERIOR
NORTHEAST. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TODAY,
RESULTING IN COLD BUT MAINLY SUNNY/DRY DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
THE PRESENCE OF AN ARCTIC INVERSION WILL LIMIT MIXING...AND HIGHS
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 30S (ABOUT -2 ST DEV)
DESPITE THE EARLY MARCH SUN.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT, ALLOWING FOR
CLEAR AND UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS. MANY LOCATIONS WILL
EXPERIENCE LOWS IN THE LOW/MID TEENS...WHICH AGAIN ARE NEARLY -2
ST DEV FROM THE SEASONAL MEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING ZONAL FLOW THIS WEEKEND WILL PUSH THE ARCTIC HIGH WELL
OFFSHORE. ADDITIONALLY ANY NRN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL STAY WELL N OF
THE MID ATLANTIC. SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A SUBSTANTIAL
MODERATING TREND...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONAL NORMALS
BY SUNDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S OVER
INTERIOR VA AND NE NC...WITH LOW/MID 40S OVER THE ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL SE VA/NE NC. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER
50S...WITH LOCALLY COOLER READINGS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC
COAST. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE MILDER AND RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. SKY COVER SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR/SUNNY...WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE N.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/CMC/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND THESE MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR. MORE OF A SPLIT/ZONAL
PATTERN WILL AFFECT THE CNTRL/ERN U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD
RESULTING IN NEAR OR SLGTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACRS THE FCST AREA.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACRS THE REGION SUN NGT INTO MON MORNG
POSSIBLY TRIGGERING ISLTD RAIN SHOWERS. MON NGT INTO TUE NGT...SFC
HI PRES WILL BE SLIDING ACRS EXTRM NRN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...WHILE WEAK LO PRES WILL BE MOVING FM THE GULF OF MEXICO
ENE AND OFF THE SE CST. AS A RESULT...SOME DEEPER LO LVL MOISTURE
WILL LIFT NWRD INTO AT LEAST SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. 00Z
GFS/CMC/ECMWF EACH TRENDED NWD WITH THIS SYSTM...SO POPS HAVE BEEN
TRENDED UPWARD TO 30-40% N TO 40-50% S. OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY
WX...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE SLGT CHC OVR NE NC COUNTIES...FOR WED AFTN
THRU THU AS HI PRES BLDS FARTHER S. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE
MID 30S TO LWR 40S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 40S TO
UPR 50S MON AND TUE...AND IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 11Z...VFR CONDS ARE FOUND AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH SOME
CLOUDS NR 3K FT COMING OFF THE BAY NR KORF ATTM. THIS MAY CONTINUE
THRU MID MORNG BEFORE SKIES BCM SUNNY...AS THEY ALREADY ARE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. OTWS...NLY WINDS REMAIN BREEZY THIS MORNG
AS SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTN
AND ESPECIALLY TNGT AS THE HI SLIDES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. DRY WX
AND VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE WEEKEND WITH THE HI REMAINING IN
THE VICINITY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN MON NIGHT/TUE WITH
THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM.

&&

.MARINE...
QUICK UPDATE TO REFLECT EXPIRATION OF HIGH SURF ADVY FOR THE
NORTHERN OBX/CURRITUCK.

A COLD FRNT AND ASSOCIATED LO PRES PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE THRU TDA
AS SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. N WINDS REMAIN RATHER STRONG THIS
MORNG...WITH GALE CONDS CONTINUING THRU 7 AM FOR SRN CSTL WTRS AND
THE SOUND...AND SCA ELSEWHERE. WAVES OVER THE BAY WILL BE 3-5
FT...WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS AT 6-10 FT. ALL MARINE HEADLINES END
DURING THE DAY TDA AS WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE AS THE HI BLDS IN.
SEAS OVER SRN CSTL WTRS MAY REMAIN AOA 5 FT THRU THIS EVENG.
BENIGN MARINE CONDS EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND WITH THE HI
REMAINING IN THE VICINITY AND SLOWLY SLIDING OFFSHORE. THE NEXT LO
PRES SYSTM AFFECTS THE REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PRECIPITATION AND MELTING SNOW WILL CAUSE MANY AREA RIVER LEVELS
WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME REACHING
THREE QUARTERS BANKFULL OR HIGHER. THE JAMES RIVER AT RICHMOND
WESTHAM IS FORECAST TO GO INTO MINOR FLOOD ON SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING 3/6:
 RIC...15 IN 1960
 ORF...20 IN 1901
 SBY...13 IN 1968
 ECG...20 IN 1960

RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR 3/6:
 RIC...28 IN 1901
 ORF...28 IN 1901
 SBY...31 IN 1960
 ECG...37 IN 1960

RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY 3/7:
 RIC...12 IN 1960
 ORF...17 IN 1899
 SBY...11 IN 1960
 ECG...17 IN 1960

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-
     650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...AJZ/TMG
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 061451
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
951 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AND THEN SINK SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTH LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
SHOULD PASS ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
PREDICTED TO FORM ON THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST TUESDAY AND THEN MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE. A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

9:30 AM UPDATE: NOT MANY CHANGES, FORECAST STILL ON TRACK. CHANGES
MAINLY INVOLVED A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SKY COVER FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND SLIGHT TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON THE 14Z METARS.

FAIR WEATHER AND COLD TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. SKIES WILL BE CLR THIS
MORNING...AND THEN THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH LOW/MID
20S NORTH AND MID 20S TO LOW 30S OVER METRO PHILADELPHIA AND OVER
THE DELMARVA. WINDS WILL BE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS
MORNING AND THEN BECOME WEST OR SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH BY DUSK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN THU NIGHT AND WITH THE AMPLE
SNOW COVER ACROSS THE REGION...LOW TEMPERATURES COULD BE AS COLD (OR
PERHAPS COLDER) THAN THU NIGHTS READINGS. PRESENTLY WE HAVE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH TEENS ALONG THE SHORE AND 12 FOR PHL.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 500MB INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER OFF THE WRF VS THE GFS, OVERALL
THEY WERE SPLIT AT 850MB AND BOTH ABOUT 1C TOO COLD AT 925MB ON
AVERAGE. AFTER HAVING THREE WINTRY PCPN EVENTS IN THE FIRST FIVE DAYS
OF MARCH, THE LONG TERM REMAINS RELATIVELY MORE SUBDUED WITH A MUCH
ANTICIPATED RETURN (EVEN IF ITS JUST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS) OF NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE ONE CHANGE TONIGHT VS LAST NIGHT IS THE
INCREASING CHANCE THAT A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MIGHT BRING SOME RAIN
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

THE MODERATING TREND WILL START ON SATURDAY AFTER A COLD COLD COLD
MORNING. MID LEVEL WAA ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHOULD BRING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO OUR CWA, ESPECIALLY
NORTH. IN SPITE OF THIS, WE WENT TOWARD THE HIGHER SET OF STAT
GUIDANCE. TODAY (FRIDAY) WILL BE A GOOD LITMUS TEST IF STAT
GUIDANCE COLD BIAS IN SPITE OF AMPLE SNOW COVER CONTINUES. AS FAR
AS SNOW SHOWERS, THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH OF A CHANGE TO THE
GEOGRAPHICAL EXTENT OF MEASURABLE PCPN REACHING DEEPER INTO OUR
CWA. ONLY CHANGE WE MADE, WAS TO START THE LOW CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS FAR NORTH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SHOULD PASS THROUGH
OUR CWA ON SATURDAY NIGHT. NOT MUCH DEEP MOISTURE TO GENERATE
SHOWERS. LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WAS KEPT FAR NORTH. MODELS ARE
INDICATING MORE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS (POSSIBLY TRAPPED UNDER AN
INVERSION NORTH) AROUND AND THIS IS REASON FOR MUCH HIGHER MINS.

ON SUNDAY, SOME WEAK PVA AND A JET STREAK ARE PREDICTED TO PASS
ACROSS OUR CWA, LEANING NORTH. STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL IF WE HAVE
THE GEOGRAPHY STRAIGHT, THE JET STREAK ITSELF LOOKS MORE CERTAIN. WE
PUT IN A CHANCE OF FLURRIES NORTH AS A PROXY. WHILE SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST LACK OF ICE COULD BE A PROBLEM (ESPECIALLY ON THE MOISTURE
TRAPPED NAM SOUNDINGS), WESTERLY WINDS ARE NORMALLY NOT A FREEZING
DRIZZLE DIRECTION IN OUR AREA. WHILE COLDER AIR (RELATIVE TO
SATURDAY) IS PREDICTED TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA, IT WARMS BEYOND
SATURDAY AT 925MB. THUS REASON FOR BUMP UP IN MAX TEMPS.

A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. BY
THEN AIR MASS IS EVEN SLIGHTLY WARMER AND WE EXPECT THE SNOW COVER
TO BE LOSING ITS EFFECTIVENESS ON SLOWING THE RISE OF MAX TEMPS.

CHANGE THEN COMES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND MORE SO TUESDAY AS ALL THE
RUNS HAVE TRENDED NORTH WITH A LOW FORMING OFF THE OLD STALLED
FRONT. UNLESS PCPN FLIES IN ON MONDAY NIGHT, THERMALLY IT LOOKS WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN, ESPECIALLY GIVEN SOUTH IS FAVORED OVER NORTH.
FASTER TIMING COUPLED WITH A MORE NORTHERN EXTENSION MIGHT BE
PROBLEMATIC FOR PTYPE. IN ITS WAKE, AN EVEN MILDER DAY IS
PREDICTED FOR WEDNESDAY BEFORE A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BRINGS COLDER AIR BACK INTO OUR CWA POSSIBLY AS SOON AS THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLR THIS MORNING AND
THEN SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHERLY OR NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS EARLY TODAY THEN GO LIGHT
WEST/SOUTHWEST TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR OVERALL.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SOME MVFR CONDITIONS DUE MAINLY
TO CIGS AS A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES BY LATER SATURDAY. HOWEVER,
ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE
TERMINALS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...VFR OVERALL.

TUESDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND
TERMINALS. PTYPE SHOULD BE RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...

THE SCA HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON THE LOWER BAY AND IN THE
WATERS OFF OF SANDY HOOK AS SEAS HAVE FALLEN TO AROUND 2-3 FEET IN
THESE ZONES AND WINDS ARE GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS. THESE
VALUES WILL DECREASE SOME THIS AFTERNOON. THE SCA HAS BEEN
EXTENDED FURTHER SOUTH TILL 1PM AS SEAS ARE STILL RUNNING FROM
FIVE TO SIX FEET BUT DECREASING.


OUTLOOK... SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THE
WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING SATURDAY.
THERE IS A CHC FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY SATURDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WE ARE ANTICIPATING SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

TUESDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
PENDING THE PROXIMITY OF THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PREDICTED TO FORM OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH A SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING WE HAVE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909


SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

IT APPEARS THAT READING AND ATLANTIC CITY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF GETTING TO THEIR RECORD LOW SATURDAY MORNING.
RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

RER`S POSTED FOR KILG AND KACY...BOTH 7.0 INCHES.

PHL HAD 7.5 AND ALLENTOWN 6.7.

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

FWIW...WATER EQUIVALENCE OF TOTAL SNOW DEPTH IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PA IS NOW WELL OVER 3 INCHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ451>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/GORSE
NEAR TERM...GAINES/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/GORSE/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/GIGI/GORSE
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 061451
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
951 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AND THEN SINK SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTH LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
SHOULD PASS ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
PREDICTED TO FORM ON THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST TUESDAY AND THEN MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE. A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

9:30 AM UPDATE: NOT MANY CHANGES, FORECAST STILL ON TRACK. CHANGES
MAINLY INVOLVED A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SKY COVER FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND SLIGHT TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON THE 14Z METARS.

FAIR WEATHER AND COLD TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. SKIES WILL BE CLR THIS
MORNING...AND THEN THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH LOW/MID
20S NORTH AND MID 20S TO LOW 30S OVER METRO PHILADELPHIA AND OVER
THE DELMARVA. WINDS WILL BE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS
MORNING AND THEN BECOME WEST OR SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH BY DUSK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN THU NIGHT AND WITH THE AMPLE
SNOW COVER ACROSS THE REGION...LOW TEMPERATURES COULD BE AS COLD (OR
PERHAPS COLDER) THAN THU NIGHTS READINGS. PRESENTLY WE HAVE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH TEENS ALONG THE SHORE AND 12 FOR PHL.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 500MB INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER OFF THE WRF VS THE GFS, OVERALL
THEY WERE SPLIT AT 850MB AND BOTH ABOUT 1C TOO COLD AT 925MB ON
AVERAGE. AFTER HAVING THREE WINTRY PCPN EVENTS IN THE FIRST FIVE DAYS
OF MARCH, THE LONG TERM REMAINS RELATIVELY MORE SUBDUED WITH A MUCH
ANTICIPATED RETURN (EVEN IF ITS JUST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS) OF NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE ONE CHANGE TONIGHT VS LAST NIGHT IS THE
INCREASING CHANCE THAT A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MIGHT BRING SOME RAIN
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

THE MODERATING TREND WILL START ON SATURDAY AFTER A COLD COLD COLD
MORNING. MID LEVEL WAA ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHOULD BRING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO OUR CWA, ESPECIALLY
NORTH. IN SPITE OF THIS, WE WENT TOWARD THE HIGHER SET OF STAT
GUIDANCE. TODAY (FRIDAY) WILL BE A GOOD LITMUS TEST IF STAT
GUIDANCE COLD BIAS IN SPITE OF AMPLE SNOW COVER CONTINUES. AS FAR
AS SNOW SHOWERS, THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH OF A CHANGE TO THE
GEOGRAPHICAL EXTENT OF MEASURABLE PCPN REACHING DEEPER INTO OUR
CWA. ONLY CHANGE WE MADE, WAS TO START THE LOW CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS FAR NORTH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SHOULD PASS THROUGH
OUR CWA ON SATURDAY NIGHT. NOT MUCH DEEP MOISTURE TO GENERATE
SHOWERS. LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WAS KEPT FAR NORTH. MODELS ARE
INDICATING MORE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS (POSSIBLY TRAPPED UNDER AN
INVERSION NORTH) AROUND AND THIS IS REASON FOR MUCH HIGHER MINS.

ON SUNDAY, SOME WEAK PVA AND A JET STREAK ARE PREDICTED TO PASS
ACROSS OUR CWA, LEANING NORTH. STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL IF WE HAVE
THE GEOGRAPHY STRAIGHT, THE JET STREAK ITSELF LOOKS MORE CERTAIN. WE
PUT IN A CHANCE OF FLURRIES NORTH AS A PROXY. WHILE SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST LACK OF ICE COULD BE A PROBLEM (ESPECIALLY ON THE MOISTURE
TRAPPED NAM SOUNDINGS), WESTERLY WINDS ARE NORMALLY NOT A FREEZING
DRIZZLE DIRECTION IN OUR AREA. WHILE COLDER AIR (RELATIVE TO
SATURDAY) IS PREDICTED TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA, IT WARMS BEYOND
SATURDAY AT 925MB. THUS REASON FOR BUMP UP IN MAX TEMPS.

A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. BY
THEN AIR MASS IS EVEN SLIGHTLY WARMER AND WE EXPECT THE SNOW COVER
TO BE LOSING ITS EFFECTIVENESS ON SLOWING THE RISE OF MAX TEMPS.

CHANGE THEN COMES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND MORE SO TUESDAY AS ALL THE
RUNS HAVE TRENDED NORTH WITH A LOW FORMING OFF THE OLD STALLED
FRONT. UNLESS PCPN FLIES IN ON MONDAY NIGHT, THERMALLY IT LOOKS WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN, ESPECIALLY GIVEN SOUTH IS FAVORED OVER NORTH.
FASTER TIMING COUPLED WITH A MORE NORTHERN EXTENSION MIGHT BE
PROBLEMATIC FOR PTYPE. IN ITS WAKE, AN EVEN MILDER DAY IS
PREDICTED FOR WEDNESDAY BEFORE A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BRINGS COLDER AIR BACK INTO OUR CWA POSSIBLY AS SOON AS THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLR THIS MORNING AND
THEN SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHERLY OR NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS EARLY TODAY THEN GO LIGHT
WEST/SOUTHWEST TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR OVERALL.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SOME MVFR CONDITIONS DUE MAINLY
TO CIGS AS A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES BY LATER SATURDAY. HOWEVER,
ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE
TERMINALS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...VFR OVERALL.

TUESDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND
TERMINALS. PTYPE SHOULD BE RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...

THE SCA HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON THE LOWER BAY AND IN THE
WATERS OFF OF SANDY HOOK AS SEAS HAVE FALLEN TO AROUND 2-3 FEET IN
THESE ZONES AND WINDS ARE GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS. THESE
VALUES WILL DECREASE SOME THIS AFTERNOON. THE SCA HAS BEEN
EXTENDED FURTHER SOUTH TILL 1PM AS SEAS ARE STILL RUNNING FROM
FIVE TO SIX FEET BUT DECREASING.


OUTLOOK... SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THE
WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING SATURDAY.
THERE IS A CHC FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY SATURDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WE ARE ANTICIPATING SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

TUESDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
PENDING THE PROXIMITY OF THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PREDICTED TO FORM OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH A SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING WE HAVE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909


SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

IT APPEARS THAT READING AND ATLANTIC CITY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF GETTING TO THEIR RECORD LOW SATURDAY MORNING.
RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

RER`S POSTED FOR KILG AND KACY...BOTH 7.0 INCHES.

PHL HAD 7.5 AND ALLENTOWN 6.7.

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

FWIW...WATER EQUIVALENCE OF TOTAL SNOW DEPTH IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PA IS NOW WELL OVER 3 INCHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ451>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/GORSE
NEAR TERM...GAINES/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/GORSE/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/GIGI/GORSE
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KLWX 061412
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
912 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TODAY...THEN SETTLES OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING
OVERHEAD THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HIPRES OVR THE OHVLY THIS MRNG. ALTHO WE/RE OFF TO A COLD
START...WNDS MINIMAL...AND NOT MEETING WND CHILL CRITERIA. THUS...
CANX WIND CHILL ADVY A BIT ELY.

THE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY...RESULTING IN QUIET BUT VERY COLD
CONDITIONS WITH LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH OVERHEAD. HIGHS WILL LIKELY
FALL SHORT OF THE FREEZING MARK EXCEPT IN CENTRAL VA...SOME 20-25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. GOING FCST A BIT BELOW LAMP...BUT DO NOT
WISH TO ADJUST ATTM DUE TO THIS MRNGS LOWS AND A FULL SNOWPACK.
MOISTURE FIELDS INDICATE POSSIBLE STRATOCU...MAINLY W OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND ADVANCING MID/HIGH CLOUDS LATE AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH.

TEMPS WILL FALL AGAIN TONIGHT...AND WITH A WEAKER GRADIENT AND SNOW
PACK...EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. BLENDED IN
ECMWF DATA WITH CURRENT FORECAST WHICH CAPTURES AREAL DISTRIBUTION
WELL. SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND PERHAPS SOME CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MAY LIMIT THE FALL.

WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH TO THE SE BY SATURDAY...RETURN FLOW WILL
HELP TEMPERATURES REBOUND NICELY FROM THE COLD MORNING. HOWEVER
HIGHS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE
DAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO LONGER A SIMPLE WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MIDWEEK
AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE SFC HIGH DOES REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE
SERN CONUS. HOWEVER...A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM A LOW OVER THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT AN INCH OF UPSLOPE SNOW WEST FROM THE ALLEGHENY FRONT...WITH
JUST CLOUDS EAST ACROSS THE CWA. WEST FLOW SUNDAY WILL DOWNSLOPE AND
WARM FOR MID TO UPR 40S N AND LOW TO MID 50S S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH SETTLES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS DOWNSTREAM OF A
SRN JET STREAM TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THIS TROUGH WILL PRODUCE
A LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. RAIN FROM THE
PRECIP SHIELD COULD SKIRT THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WENT A LITTLE
ABOVE WPC GUIDANCE WITH 40 POPS TUESDAY FOR SRN MD AND CHANCES FOR
SRN HALF OF CWA AND EAST FROM I-95. SO FAR THIS LOOKS TO BE RAIN.
THOUGH SHOULD PRECIP COME IN EARLIER AND BE FARTHER NORTH...SOME MIX
OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

UPR TROUGH SETS UP OVER NERN CONUS WEDNESDAY...PROGRESSING EAST
THURSDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE WEST WINDS OVER THE AREA...BUT EXPECT
DRY AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE POSSIBLE STRATOCU AT MRB TODAY
WHICH MAY FALL INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY IF THEY BECOME BKN. THINK THIS
IS A SMALL PROB. ALSO A SMALL SUBSET OF GUIDANCE SHOWING POSSIBLE
VSBY REDUCTIONS LATE TONIGHT AS SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS WORK
IN...BUT AM NOT SOLD ON THESE SOLUTIONS YET WITH THE DRY ARCTIC
AIRMASS IN PLACE. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KT TODAY BECOME
LIGHT/VRB BY EVENING...THEN SOUTHERLY SATURDAY AROUND 10 KT.

VFR CONDS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SW FLOW
SATURDAY NIGHT BECOMES WLY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. LIGHT W/NW FLOW
THEN THROUGH MONDAY. LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY AS LOW PASSES
THE CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
OCCASIONAL SCA LEVEL GUSTS CONTINUE ON THE MID-LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC
AND MUCH OF THE CHSPK BAY BELOW POOLES ISLAND. HOWEVER...ALL
GUSTINESS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY MIDDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BUT APPEAR TO STAY
BELOW SCA LEVELS.

LIGHT SWLY FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN LIGHT WLY/NWLY FLOW SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY AS A LOW PASSES THE
CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE JAM APPEARS TO NOT BE BROKEN YET ON CACAPON RIVER NEAR GREAT
CACAPON. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RISES THERE AND ANY OTHER RISES.
ICE JAMS APPEAR TO HAVE BROKEN ON GOOSE CREEK IN LEESBURG.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SNOWFALL DURING METEOROLOGICAL WINTER (DECEMBER 1ST
THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH...OR 29TH IF IT IS A LEAP YEAR) WAS NEAR
NORMAL AT OUR THREE MAIN CLIMATE SITES. HOWEVER...ADDING EARLY
SEASON SNOWFALL FROM NOVEMBER AND THE RECENT SNOWFALL SO FAR IN
MARCH PUSHES THE ANNUAL SNOWFALL TOTALS ABOVE NORMAL.

BELOW IS A TABLE OF NORMAL ANNUAL SNOWFALL (RECORDED FROM JULY 1ST
OF A GIVEN YEAR TO JUNE 30TH OF THE FOLLOWING YEAR TO ENCOMPASS THE
ENTIRE COOL SEASON)...COMPARED TO OBSERVED 2014-15 VALUES THROUGH
MARCH 5TH.

     ..............NORMAL ANNUAL SNOWFALL (INCHES)....................
     .............NOV...DEC...JAN...FEB...MAR*..APR...TOTAL...........
WASHINGTON DC...0.5...2.3...5.6...5.7...1.3...0.0...15.4............
BALTIMORE MD....0.4...3.0...6.8...8.0...1.9...0.0...20.1............
DULLES AIRPORT..0.5...3.5...7.3...7.6...2.8...0.3...22.0............
*NORMAL VALUES FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH OF MARCH

     ........OBSERVED 2014-15 SNOWFALL (INCHES, THROUGH MARCH 5TH)....
     .............NOV...DEC...JAN...FEB...MAR*..TOTAL..(DEPARTURE)....
WASHINGTON DC....T.....T....3.6...9.8...4.9...18.3...(+2.9).........
BALTIMORE MD....0.3...0.2...5.9..14.6...6.5...27.5...(+7.4).........
DULLES AIRPORT..1.6....T....8.7..16.1...9.6...36.0...(+14.0)........
*VALUES LISTED ARE TOTALS THROUGH MARCH 5TH...AND ARE ALREADY WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MONTH.

MEANWHILE...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MANY TIMES IN RECENT MONTHS...
RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES ARE IN JEOPARDY AS ANOTHER COLD AIRMASS
PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BELOW IS A LIST
OF RECORD DAILY LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 6TH AND 7TH...AND
RECORD DAILY LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 6TH.

SITE...RECORD MIN 03/06...RECORD LOW MAX 03/06...RECORD MIN 03/07...
DCA.....10 F (1988).........21 F (1901)...........13 F (1890).......
BWI.....13 F (1901/1873)....21 F (1901)...........10 F (1960).......
IAD.....15 F (1978).........32 F (2007)...........14 F (1985).......

RECORD LOWS WERE SET THIS MRNG AT IAD /9/ AND BWI /13/.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ531>534-536-
     537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...HTS/ADS
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...BAJ
AVIATION...ADS/BAJ
MARINE...HTS/ADS/BAJ
HYDROLOGY...BAJ
CLIMATE...DFH/HTS



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 061359
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
859 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLEAR SKIES AND A RELATIVELY STRONG INVERSION ALONG WITH FRESH
SNOW ON THE GROUND ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURE FREE FALL THIS MORNING.
AN ALL TIME MARCH LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD WAS BROKEN AT
PITTSBURGH...AND THE STAGE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY HAS THUS BEEN
SET.

LAYER RH VALUES ARE REALLY RATHER PALTRY...AND WILL FAIL TO
DEVIATE MUCH THROUG THE DAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
MEANDERS EASTWARD. THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE A BIT
ALLOWING FOR SOME SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
SHOULD START TO ALLOW FOR SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO
INCREASE BY THAT JUNCTURE. THAT SAID...ADVECTION IS LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE AND UPSTREAM SATELLITE VIEWS COINCIDE WITH THIS
THINKING. A FEW CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP BASED UPON MODEL
SOUNDINGS...PARTICULARLY GIVEN STRONG SUNSHINE THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE DAY. WITH ALL OF THAT IN MIND...A SUNNY TREND TOWARD
PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD BE EXPECTED.

STRONG MARCH SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR RATHER AGGRESSIE
TEMPERATURE RISES THROUGH THE DAY. MOS GUIDANCE SEEMED MUCH TOO
LOW WHEN ACCOUNTING FOR THE STRONG MARCH SUN...SO HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S WERE PROJECTED BY AFTERNOON. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL HAVE EJECTED TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE TROUGH RUSHES TO
THE EAST COAST.

MODELS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO SHOW A SETUP FOR THE WEEKEND THAT DOES
NOT APPEAR VERY PLEASANT. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF
STRATOCU QUICKLY COVERING THE REGION ON SATURDAY. IF THIS COMES
TO FRUITION...NOT ONLY WILL THERE BE LITTLE TO NO SUNSHINE
SATURDAY BUT TEMPS WILL ALSO BE COLDER THEN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.

A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHES THE BOUNDARY THROUGH. SATURATED LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN
UNDERNEATH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE. HAVE
KEPT POPS CONFINED TO THE NORTH AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANCE TO
MAKE ANY SNOW ELSEWHERE AS THE AIR ABOVE THE STRATOCU LAYER WILL
BE VERY DRY AND SNOW GROWTH ZONES WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE CLOUD
DECK. I THINK THE MAIN FOCUS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO BE ON THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP. ITS A TOUGH CALL AT THIS
POINT...BUT WITH NO ICE FALLING INTO THE SATURATED LOWER LEVELS
AND SNOW GROWTH ZONES SO HIGH...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO
MAKE SNOW. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE FINE TUNED AS
THE MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE ENTIRE SETUP.

IF CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT IS CORRECT...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH
IMPROVEMENT ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN PARKED
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS DOWN AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. CU RULE INDICATES JUST
SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CU FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING THAT FKL AND DUJ COULD GO BROKEN IN THE AFTERNOON
PROMPTING THE INCLUSION OF HIGH MVFR CIGS AT THESE PORTS.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OHIO RIVER AT THE POINT IN
PITTSBURGH...AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR CHARLEROI AND
ELIZABETH ON THE MONONGAHELA RIVER. CRESTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED
AT THESE POINTS...AND LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...2 SET IN 1901.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...12 SET IN 1960...1969...AND
1972.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...5 SET IN 1960.

ALL TIME LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH AT
PITTSBURGH IS -1...SET ON...3/4/1943...3/9/1960...AND 3/2/1980.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 061359
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
859 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLEAR SKIES AND A RELATIVELY STRONG INVERSION ALONG WITH FRESH
SNOW ON THE GROUND ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURE FREE FALL THIS MORNING.
AN ALL TIME MARCH LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD WAS BROKEN AT
PITTSBURGH...AND THE STAGE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY HAS THUS BEEN
SET.

LAYER RH VALUES ARE REALLY RATHER PALTRY...AND WILL FAIL TO
DEVIATE MUCH THROUG THE DAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
MEANDERS EASTWARD. THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE A BIT
ALLOWING FOR SOME SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
SHOULD START TO ALLOW FOR SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO
INCREASE BY THAT JUNCTURE. THAT SAID...ADVECTION IS LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE AND UPSTREAM SATELLITE VIEWS COINCIDE WITH THIS
THINKING. A FEW CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP BASED UPON MODEL
SOUNDINGS...PARTICULARLY GIVEN STRONG SUNSHINE THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE DAY. WITH ALL OF THAT IN MIND...A SUNNY TREND TOWARD
PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD BE EXPECTED.

STRONG MARCH SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR RATHER AGGRESSIE
TEMPERATURE RISES THROUGH THE DAY. MOS GUIDANCE SEEMED MUCH TOO
LOW WHEN ACCOUNTING FOR THE STRONG MARCH SUN...SO HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S WERE PROJECTED BY AFTERNOON. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL HAVE EJECTED TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE TROUGH RUSHES TO
THE EAST COAST.

MODELS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO SHOW A SETUP FOR THE WEEKEND THAT DOES
NOT APPEAR VERY PLEASANT. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF
STRATOCU QUICKLY COVERING THE REGION ON SATURDAY. IF THIS COMES
TO FRUITION...NOT ONLY WILL THERE BE LITTLE TO NO SUNSHINE
SATURDAY BUT TEMPS WILL ALSO BE COLDER THEN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.

A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHES THE BOUNDARY THROUGH. SATURATED LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN
UNDERNEATH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE. HAVE
KEPT POPS CONFINED TO THE NORTH AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANCE TO
MAKE ANY SNOW ELSEWHERE AS THE AIR ABOVE THE STRATOCU LAYER WILL
BE VERY DRY AND SNOW GROWTH ZONES WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE CLOUD
DECK. I THINK THE MAIN FOCUS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO BE ON THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP. ITS A TOUGH CALL AT THIS
POINT...BUT WITH NO ICE FALLING INTO THE SATURATED LOWER LEVELS
AND SNOW GROWTH ZONES SO HIGH...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO
MAKE SNOW. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE FINE TUNED AS
THE MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE ENTIRE SETUP.

IF CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT IS CORRECT...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH
IMPROVEMENT ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN PARKED
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS DOWN AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. CU RULE INDICATES JUST
SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CU FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING THAT FKL AND DUJ COULD GO BROKEN IN THE AFTERNOON
PROMPTING THE INCLUSION OF HIGH MVFR CIGS AT THESE PORTS.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OHIO RIVER AT THE POINT IN
PITTSBURGH...AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR CHARLEROI AND
ELIZABETH ON THE MONONGAHELA RIVER. CRESTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED
AT THESE POINTS...AND LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...2 SET IN 1901.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...12 SET IN 1960...1969...AND
1972.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...5 SET IN 1960.

ALL TIME LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH AT
PITTSBURGH IS -1...SET ON...3/4/1943...3/9/1960...AND 3/2/1980.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 061359
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
859 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLEAR SKIES AND A RELATIVELY STRONG INVERSION ALONG WITH FRESH
SNOW ON THE GROUND ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURE FREE FALL THIS MORNING.
AN ALL TIME MARCH LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD WAS BROKEN AT
PITTSBURGH...AND THE STAGE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY HAS THUS BEEN
SET.

LAYER RH VALUES ARE REALLY RATHER PALTRY...AND WILL FAIL TO
DEVIATE MUCH THROUG THE DAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
MEANDERS EASTWARD. THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE A BIT
ALLOWING FOR SOME SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
SHOULD START TO ALLOW FOR SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO
INCREASE BY THAT JUNCTURE. THAT SAID...ADVECTION IS LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE AND UPSTREAM SATELLITE VIEWS COINCIDE WITH THIS
THINKING. A FEW CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP BASED UPON MODEL
SOUNDINGS...PARTICULARLY GIVEN STRONG SUNSHINE THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE DAY. WITH ALL OF THAT IN MIND...A SUNNY TREND TOWARD
PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD BE EXPECTED.

STRONG MARCH SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR RATHER AGGRESSIE
TEMPERATURE RISES THROUGH THE DAY. MOS GUIDANCE SEEMED MUCH TOO
LOW WHEN ACCOUNTING FOR THE STRONG MARCH SUN...SO HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S WERE PROJECTED BY AFTERNOON. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL HAVE EJECTED TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE TROUGH RUSHES TO
THE EAST COAST.

MODELS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO SHOW A SETUP FOR THE WEEKEND THAT DOES
NOT APPEAR VERY PLEASANT. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF
STRATOCU QUICKLY COVERING THE REGION ON SATURDAY. IF THIS COMES
TO FRUITION...NOT ONLY WILL THERE BE LITTLE TO NO SUNSHINE
SATURDAY BUT TEMPS WILL ALSO BE COLDER THEN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.

A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHES THE BOUNDARY THROUGH. SATURATED LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN
UNDERNEATH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE. HAVE
KEPT POPS CONFINED TO THE NORTH AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANCE TO
MAKE ANY SNOW ELSEWHERE AS THE AIR ABOVE THE STRATOCU LAYER WILL
BE VERY DRY AND SNOW GROWTH ZONES WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE CLOUD
DECK. I THINK THE MAIN FOCUS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO BE ON THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP. ITS A TOUGH CALL AT THIS
POINT...BUT WITH NO ICE FALLING INTO THE SATURATED LOWER LEVELS
AND SNOW GROWTH ZONES SO HIGH...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO
MAKE SNOW. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE FINE TUNED AS
THE MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE ENTIRE SETUP.

IF CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT IS CORRECT...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH
IMPROVEMENT ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN PARKED
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS DOWN AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. CU RULE INDICATES JUST
SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CU FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING THAT FKL AND DUJ COULD GO BROKEN IN THE AFTERNOON
PROMPTING THE INCLUSION OF HIGH MVFR CIGS AT THESE PORTS.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OHIO RIVER AT THE POINT IN
PITTSBURGH...AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR CHARLEROI AND
ELIZABETH ON THE MONONGAHELA RIVER. CRESTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED
AT THESE POINTS...AND LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...2 SET IN 1901.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...12 SET IN 1960...1969...AND
1972.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...5 SET IN 1960.

ALL TIME LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH AT
PITTSBURGH IS -1...SET ON...3/4/1943...3/9/1960...AND 3/2/1980.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 061359
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
859 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLEAR SKIES AND A RELATIVELY STRONG INVERSION ALONG WITH FRESH
SNOW ON THE GROUND ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURE FREE FALL THIS MORNING.
AN ALL TIME MARCH LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD WAS BROKEN AT
PITTSBURGH...AND THE STAGE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY HAS THUS BEEN
SET.

LAYER RH VALUES ARE REALLY RATHER PALTRY...AND WILL FAIL TO
DEVIATE MUCH THROUG THE DAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
MEANDERS EASTWARD. THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE A BIT
ALLOWING FOR SOME SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
SHOULD START TO ALLOW FOR SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO
INCREASE BY THAT JUNCTURE. THAT SAID...ADVECTION IS LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE AND UPSTREAM SATELLITE VIEWS COINCIDE WITH THIS
THINKING. A FEW CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP BASED UPON MODEL
SOUNDINGS...PARTICULARLY GIVEN STRONG SUNSHINE THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE DAY. WITH ALL OF THAT IN MIND...A SUNNY TREND TOWARD
PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD BE EXPECTED.

STRONG MARCH SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR RATHER AGGRESSIE
TEMPERATURE RISES THROUGH THE DAY. MOS GUIDANCE SEEMED MUCH TOO
LOW WHEN ACCOUNTING FOR THE STRONG MARCH SUN...SO HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S WERE PROJECTED BY AFTERNOON. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL HAVE EJECTED TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE TROUGH RUSHES TO
THE EAST COAST.

MODELS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO SHOW A SETUP FOR THE WEEKEND THAT DOES
NOT APPEAR VERY PLEASANT. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF
STRATOCU QUICKLY COVERING THE REGION ON SATURDAY. IF THIS COMES
TO FRUITION...NOT ONLY WILL THERE BE LITTLE TO NO SUNSHINE
SATURDAY BUT TEMPS WILL ALSO BE COLDER THEN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.

A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHES THE BOUNDARY THROUGH. SATURATED LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN
UNDERNEATH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE. HAVE
KEPT POPS CONFINED TO THE NORTH AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANCE TO
MAKE ANY SNOW ELSEWHERE AS THE AIR ABOVE THE STRATOCU LAYER WILL
BE VERY DRY AND SNOW GROWTH ZONES WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE CLOUD
DECK. I THINK THE MAIN FOCUS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO BE ON THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP. ITS A TOUGH CALL AT THIS
POINT...BUT WITH NO ICE FALLING INTO THE SATURATED LOWER LEVELS
AND SNOW GROWTH ZONES SO HIGH...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO
MAKE SNOW. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE FINE TUNED AS
THE MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE ENTIRE SETUP.

IF CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT IS CORRECT...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH
IMPROVEMENT ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN PARKED
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS DOWN AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. CU RULE INDICATES JUST
SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CU FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING THAT FKL AND DUJ COULD GO BROKEN IN THE AFTERNOON
PROMPTING THE INCLUSION OF HIGH MVFR CIGS AT THESE PORTS.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OHIO RIVER AT THE POINT IN
PITTSBURGH...AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR CHARLEROI AND
ELIZABETH ON THE MONONGAHELA RIVER. CRESTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED
AT THESE POINTS...AND LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...2 SET IN 1901.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...12 SET IN 1960...1969...AND
1972.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...5 SET IN 1960.

ALL TIME LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH AT
PITTSBURGH IS -1...SET ON...3/4/1943...3/9/1960...AND 3/2/1980.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 061145
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
645 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND
BRINGING A STEADY MODERATING TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM TX THROUGH NEW ENGLAND...AND BUILDING
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID/UPPER
TEENS OVER WRN/NRN PORTIONS...WITH LOW/MID 20S FOR CENTRAL AND SE
PORTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH SUNRISE...AND
WHEN COMBINED WITH A 10-15MPH NORTHERLY WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND
CHILLS FROM ZERO TO 10 ABOVE. THERE IS STILL SOME SC LINGERING OVER
SE VA/NE NC AND PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES...BUT THIS PUSH OFFSHORE BY 7
AM. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SUNNY COLD DAY WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. THE PRESENCE OF AN ARCTIC INVERSION WILL LIMIT
MIXING...AND HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 30-35F (ABOUT -2 ST DEV)
DESPITE EARLY MARCH SOLAR INSOLATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A CLEAR AND UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT. MANY LOCATIONS WILL
EXPERIENCE LOWS IN THE LOW/MID TEENS...WHICH AGAIN ARE NEARLY -2 ST
DEV FROM THE SEASONAL MEAN.

INCREASING ZONAL FLOW THIS WEEKEND WILL PUSH THE ARCTIC HIGH WELL
OFFSHORE. ADDITIONALLY ANY NRN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL STAY WELL N OF
THE MID ATLANTIC. SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A SUBSTANTIAL
MODERATING TREND...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONAL NORMALS
BY SUNDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S OVER
INTERIOR VA AND NE NC...WITH LOW/MID 40S OVER THE ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL SE VA/NE NC. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER
50S...WITH LOCALLY COOLER READINGS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC
COAST. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE MILDER AND RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. SKY COVER SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR/SUNNY...WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE N.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/CMC/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND THESE MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR. MORE OF A SPLIT/ZONAL
PATTERN WILL AFFECT THE CNTRL/ERN U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD
RESULTING IN NEAR OR SLGTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACRS THE FCST AREA.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACRS THE REGION SUN NGT INTO MON MORNG
POSSIBLY TRIGGERING ISLTD RAIN SHOWERS. MON NGT INTO TUE NGT...SFC
HI PRES WILL BE SLIDING ACRS EXTRM NRN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...WHILE WEAK LO PRES WILL BE MOVING FM THE GULF OF MEXICO
ENE AND OFF THE SE CST. AS A RESULT...SOME DEEPER LO LVL MOISTURE
WILL LIFT NWRD INTO AT LEAST SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. 00Z
GFS/CMC/ECMWF EACH TRENDED NWD WITH THIS SYSTM...SO POPS HAVE BEEN
TRENDED UPWARD TO 30-40% N TO 40-50% S. OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY
WX...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE SLGT CHC OVR NE NC COUNTIES...FOR WED AFTN
THRU THU AS HI PRES BLDS FARTHER S. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE
MID 30S TO LWR 40S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 40S TO
UPR 50S MON AND TUE...AND IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 11Z...VFR CONDS ARE FOUND AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH SOME
CLOUDS NR 3K FT COMING OFF THE BAY NR KORF ATTM. THIS MAY CONTINUE
THRU MID MORNG BEFORE SKIES BCM SUNNY...AS THEY ALREADY ARE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. OTWS...NLY WINDS REMAIN BREEZY THIS MORNG
AS SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTN
AND ESPECIALLY TNGT AS THE HI SLIDES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. DRY WX
AND VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE WEEKEND WITH THE HI REMAINING IN
THE VICINITY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN MON NIGHT/TUE WITH
THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRNT AND ASSOCIATED LO PRES PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE TDA AS
SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. N WINDS REMAIN RATHER STRONG THIS
MORNG...WITH GALE CONDS CONTINUING THRU 7 AM FOR SRN CSTL WTRS AND
THE SOUND...AND SCA ELSEWHERE. WAVES OVER THE BAY WILL BE 3-5
FT...WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS AT 6-10 FT. A HI SURF ADVSRY ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM FOR OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK DUE TO
NEARSHORE WAVES AOA 8 FT. ALL MARINE HEADLINES END DURING THE DAY
TDA AS WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE AS THE HI BLDS IN. SEAS OVER SRN
CSTL WTRS MAY REMAIN AOA 5 FT THRU THIS EVENG. BENIGN MARINE CONDS
EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND WITH THE HI REMAINING IN THE VICINITY
AND SLOWLY SLIDING OFFSHORE. THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM AFFECTS THE
REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PRECIPITATION AND MELTING SNOW WILL CAUSE MANY AREA RIVER LEVELS
WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME REACHING
THREE QUARTERS BANKFULL OR HIGHER. THE JAMES RIVER AT RICHMOND
WESTHAM IS FORECAST TO GO INTO MINOR FLOOD ON SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING 3/6:
 RIC...15 IN 1960
 ORF...20 IN 1901
 SBY...13 IN 1968
 ECG...20 IN 1960

RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR 3/6:
 RIC...28 IN 1901
 ORF...28 IN 1901
 SBY...31 IN 1960
 ECG...37 IN 1960

RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY 3/7:
 RIC...12 IN 1960
 ORF...17 IN 1899
 SBY...11 IN 1960
 ECG...17 IN 1960

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ102.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-
     650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...AJZ/TMG
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 061145
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
645 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND
BRINGING A STEADY MODERATING TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM TX THROUGH NEW ENGLAND...AND BUILDING
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID/UPPER
TEENS OVER WRN/NRN PORTIONS...WITH LOW/MID 20S FOR CENTRAL AND SE
PORTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH SUNRISE...AND
WHEN COMBINED WITH A 10-15MPH NORTHERLY WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND
CHILLS FROM ZERO TO 10 ABOVE. THERE IS STILL SOME SC LINGERING OVER
SE VA/NE NC AND PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES...BUT THIS PUSH OFFSHORE BY 7
AM. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SUNNY COLD DAY WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. THE PRESENCE OF AN ARCTIC INVERSION WILL LIMIT
MIXING...AND HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 30-35F (ABOUT -2 ST DEV)
DESPITE EARLY MARCH SOLAR INSOLATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A CLEAR AND UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT. MANY LOCATIONS WILL
EXPERIENCE LOWS IN THE LOW/MID TEENS...WHICH AGAIN ARE NEARLY -2 ST
DEV FROM THE SEASONAL MEAN.

INCREASING ZONAL FLOW THIS WEEKEND WILL PUSH THE ARCTIC HIGH WELL
OFFSHORE. ADDITIONALLY ANY NRN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL STAY WELL N OF
THE MID ATLANTIC. SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A SUBSTANTIAL
MODERATING TREND...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONAL NORMALS
BY SUNDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S OVER
INTERIOR VA AND NE NC...WITH LOW/MID 40S OVER THE ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL SE VA/NE NC. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER
50S...WITH LOCALLY COOLER READINGS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC
COAST. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE MILDER AND RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. SKY COVER SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR/SUNNY...WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE N.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/CMC/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND THESE MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR. MORE OF A SPLIT/ZONAL
PATTERN WILL AFFECT THE CNTRL/ERN U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD
RESULTING IN NEAR OR SLGTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACRS THE FCST AREA.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACRS THE REGION SUN NGT INTO MON MORNG
POSSIBLY TRIGGERING ISLTD RAIN SHOWERS. MON NGT INTO TUE NGT...SFC
HI PRES WILL BE SLIDING ACRS EXTRM NRN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...WHILE WEAK LO PRES WILL BE MOVING FM THE GULF OF MEXICO
ENE AND OFF THE SE CST. AS A RESULT...SOME DEEPER LO LVL MOISTURE
WILL LIFT NWRD INTO AT LEAST SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. 00Z
GFS/CMC/ECMWF EACH TRENDED NWD WITH THIS SYSTM...SO POPS HAVE BEEN
TRENDED UPWARD TO 30-40% N TO 40-50% S. OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY
WX...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE SLGT CHC OVR NE NC COUNTIES...FOR WED AFTN
THRU THU AS HI PRES BLDS FARTHER S. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE
MID 30S TO LWR 40S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 40S TO
UPR 50S MON AND TUE...AND IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 11Z...VFR CONDS ARE FOUND AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH SOME
CLOUDS NR 3K FT COMING OFF THE BAY NR KORF ATTM. THIS MAY CONTINUE
THRU MID MORNG BEFORE SKIES BCM SUNNY...AS THEY ALREADY ARE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. OTWS...NLY WINDS REMAIN BREEZY THIS MORNG
AS SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTN
AND ESPECIALLY TNGT AS THE HI SLIDES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. DRY WX
AND VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE WEEKEND WITH THE HI REMAINING IN
THE VICINITY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN MON NIGHT/TUE WITH
THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRNT AND ASSOCIATED LO PRES PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE TDA AS
SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. N WINDS REMAIN RATHER STRONG THIS
MORNG...WITH GALE CONDS CONTINUING THRU 7 AM FOR SRN CSTL WTRS AND
THE SOUND...AND SCA ELSEWHERE. WAVES OVER THE BAY WILL BE 3-5
FT...WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS AT 6-10 FT. A HI SURF ADVSRY ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM FOR OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK DUE TO
NEARSHORE WAVES AOA 8 FT. ALL MARINE HEADLINES END DURING THE DAY
TDA AS WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE AS THE HI BLDS IN. SEAS OVER SRN
CSTL WTRS MAY REMAIN AOA 5 FT THRU THIS EVENG. BENIGN MARINE CONDS
EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND WITH THE HI REMAINING IN THE VICINITY
AND SLOWLY SLIDING OFFSHORE. THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM AFFECTS THE
REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PRECIPITATION AND MELTING SNOW WILL CAUSE MANY AREA RIVER LEVELS
WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME REACHING
THREE QUARTERS BANKFULL OR HIGHER. THE JAMES RIVER AT RICHMOND
WESTHAM IS FORECAST TO GO INTO MINOR FLOOD ON SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING 3/6:
 RIC...15 IN 1960
 ORF...20 IN 1901
 SBY...13 IN 1968
 ECG...20 IN 1960

RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR 3/6:
 RIC...28 IN 1901
 ORF...28 IN 1901
 SBY...31 IN 1960
 ECG...37 IN 1960

RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY 3/7:
 RIC...12 IN 1960
 ORF...17 IN 1899
 SBY...11 IN 1960
 ECG...17 IN 1960

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ102.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-
     650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...AJZ/TMG
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 061145
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
645 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND
BRINGING A STEADY MODERATING TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM TX THROUGH NEW ENGLAND...AND BUILDING
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID/UPPER
TEENS OVER WRN/NRN PORTIONS...WITH LOW/MID 20S FOR CENTRAL AND SE
PORTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH SUNRISE...AND
WHEN COMBINED WITH A 10-15MPH NORTHERLY WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND
CHILLS FROM ZERO TO 10 ABOVE. THERE IS STILL SOME SC LINGERING OVER
SE VA/NE NC AND PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES...BUT THIS PUSH OFFSHORE BY 7
AM. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SUNNY COLD DAY WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. THE PRESENCE OF AN ARCTIC INVERSION WILL LIMIT
MIXING...AND HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 30-35F (ABOUT -2 ST DEV)
DESPITE EARLY MARCH SOLAR INSOLATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A CLEAR AND UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT. MANY LOCATIONS WILL
EXPERIENCE LOWS IN THE LOW/MID TEENS...WHICH AGAIN ARE NEARLY -2 ST
DEV FROM THE SEASONAL MEAN.

INCREASING ZONAL FLOW THIS WEEKEND WILL PUSH THE ARCTIC HIGH WELL
OFFSHORE. ADDITIONALLY ANY NRN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL STAY WELL N OF
THE MID ATLANTIC. SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A SUBSTANTIAL
MODERATING TREND...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONAL NORMALS
BY SUNDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S OVER
INTERIOR VA AND NE NC...WITH LOW/MID 40S OVER THE ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL SE VA/NE NC. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER
50S...WITH LOCALLY COOLER READINGS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC
COAST. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE MILDER AND RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. SKY COVER SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR/SUNNY...WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE N.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/CMC/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND THESE MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR. MORE OF A SPLIT/ZONAL
PATTERN WILL AFFECT THE CNTRL/ERN U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD
RESULTING IN NEAR OR SLGTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACRS THE FCST AREA.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACRS THE REGION SUN NGT INTO MON MORNG
POSSIBLY TRIGGERING ISLTD RAIN SHOWERS. MON NGT INTO TUE NGT...SFC
HI PRES WILL BE SLIDING ACRS EXTRM NRN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...WHILE WEAK LO PRES WILL BE MOVING FM THE GULF OF MEXICO
ENE AND OFF THE SE CST. AS A RESULT...SOME DEEPER LO LVL MOISTURE
WILL LIFT NWRD INTO AT LEAST SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. 00Z
GFS/CMC/ECMWF EACH TRENDED NWD WITH THIS SYSTM...SO POPS HAVE BEEN
TRENDED UPWARD TO 30-40% N TO 40-50% S. OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY
WX...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE SLGT CHC OVR NE NC COUNTIES...FOR WED AFTN
THRU THU AS HI PRES BLDS FARTHER S. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE
MID 30S TO LWR 40S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 40S TO
UPR 50S MON AND TUE...AND IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 11Z...VFR CONDS ARE FOUND AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH SOME
CLOUDS NR 3K FT COMING OFF THE BAY NR KORF ATTM. THIS MAY CONTINUE
THRU MID MORNG BEFORE SKIES BCM SUNNY...AS THEY ALREADY ARE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. OTWS...NLY WINDS REMAIN BREEZY THIS MORNG
AS SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTN
AND ESPECIALLY TNGT AS THE HI SLIDES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. DRY WX
AND VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE WEEKEND WITH THE HI REMAINING IN
THE VICINITY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN MON NIGHT/TUE WITH
THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRNT AND ASSOCIATED LO PRES PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE TDA AS
SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. N WINDS REMAIN RATHER STRONG THIS
MORNG...WITH GALE CONDS CONTINUING THRU 7 AM FOR SRN CSTL WTRS AND
THE SOUND...AND SCA ELSEWHERE. WAVES OVER THE BAY WILL BE 3-5
FT...WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS AT 6-10 FT. A HI SURF ADVSRY ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM FOR OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK DUE TO
NEARSHORE WAVES AOA 8 FT. ALL MARINE HEADLINES END DURING THE DAY
TDA AS WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE AS THE HI BLDS IN. SEAS OVER SRN
CSTL WTRS MAY REMAIN AOA 5 FT THRU THIS EVENG. BENIGN MARINE CONDS
EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND WITH THE HI REMAINING IN THE VICINITY
AND SLOWLY SLIDING OFFSHORE. THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM AFFECTS THE
REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PRECIPITATION AND MELTING SNOW WILL CAUSE MANY AREA RIVER LEVELS
WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME REACHING
THREE QUARTERS BANKFULL OR HIGHER. THE JAMES RIVER AT RICHMOND
WESTHAM IS FORECAST TO GO INTO MINOR FLOOD ON SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING 3/6:
 RIC...15 IN 1960
 ORF...20 IN 1901
 SBY...13 IN 1968
 ECG...20 IN 1960

RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR 3/6:
 RIC...28 IN 1901
 ORF...28 IN 1901
 SBY...31 IN 1960
 ECG...37 IN 1960

RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY 3/7:
 RIC...12 IN 1960
 ORF...17 IN 1899
 SBY...11 IN 1960
 ECG...17 IN 1960

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ102.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-
     650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...AJZ/TMG
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 061145
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
645 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND
BRINGING A STEADY MODERATING TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM TX THROUGH NEW ENGLAND...AND BUILDING
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID/UPPER
TEENS OVER WRN/NRN PORTIONS...WITH LOW/MID 20S FOR CENTRAL AND SE
PORTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH SUNRISE...AND
WHEN COMBINED WITH A 10-15MPH NORTHERLY WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND
CHILLS FROM ZERO TO 10 ABOVE. THERE IS STILL SOME SC LINGERING OVER
SE VA/NE NC AND PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES...BUT THIS PUSH OFFSHORE BY 7
AM. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SUNNY COLD DAY WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. THE PRESENCE OF AN ARCTIC INVERSION WILL LIMIT
MIXING...AND HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 30-35F (ABOUT -2 ST DEV)
DESPITE EARLY MARCH SOLAR INSOLATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A CLEAR AND UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT. MANY LOCATIONS WILL
EXPERIENCE LOWS IN THE LOW/MID TEENS...WHICH AGAIN ARE NEARLY -2 ST
DEV FROM THE SEASONAL MEAN.

INCREASING ZONAL FLOW THIS WEEKEND WILL PUSH THE ARCTIC HIGH WELL
OFFSHORE. ADDITIONALLY ANY NRN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL STAY WELL N OF
THE MID ATLANTIC. SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A SUBSTANTIAL
MODERATING TREND...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONAL NORMALS
BY SUNDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S OVER
INTERIOR VA AND NE NC...WITH LOW/MID 40S OVER THE ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL SE VA/NE NC. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER
50S...WITH LOCALLY COOLER READINGS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC
COAST. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE MILDER AND RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. SKY COVER SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR/SUNNY...WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE N.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/CMC/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND THESE MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR. MORE OF A SPLIT/ZONAL
PATTERN WILL AFFECT THE CNTRL/ERN U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD
RESULTING IN NEAR OR SLGTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACRS THE FCST AREA.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACRS THE REGION SUN NGT INTO MON MORNG
POSSIBLY TRIGGERING ISLTD RAIN SHOWERS. MON NGT INTO TUE NGT...SFC
HI PRES WILL BE SLIDING ACRS EXTRM NRN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...WHILE WEAK LO PRES WILL BE MOVING FM THE GULF OF MEXICO
ENE AND OFF THE SE CST. AS A RESULT...SOME DEEPER LO LVL MOISTURE
WILL LIFT NWRD INTO AT LEAST SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. 00Z
GFS/CMC/ECMWF EACH TRENDED NWD WITH THIS SYSTM...SO POPS HAVE BEEN
TRENDED UPWARD TO 30-40% N TO 40-50% S. OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY
WX...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE SLGT CHC OVR NE NC COUNTIES...FOR WED AFTN
THRU THU AS HI PRES BLDS FARTHER S. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE
MID 30S TO LWR 40S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 40S TO
UPR 50S MON AND TUE...AND IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 11Z...VFR CONDS ARE FOUND AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH SOME
CLOUDS NR 3K FT COMING OFF THE BAY NR KORF ATTM. THIS MAY CONTINUE
THRU MID MORNG BEFORE SKIES BCM SUNNY...AS THEY ALREADY ARE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. OTWS...NLY WINDS REMAIN BREEZY THIS MORNG
AS SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTN
AND ESPECIALLY TNGT AS THE HI SLIDES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. DRY WX
AND VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE WEEKEND WITH THE HI REMAINING IN
THE VICINITY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN MON NIGHT/TUE WITH
THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRNT AND ASSOCIATED LO PRES PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE TDA AS
SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. N WINDS REMAIN RATHER STRONG THIS
MORNG...WITH GALE CONDS CONTINUING THRU 7 AM FOR SRN CSTL WTRS AND
THE SOUND...AND SCA ELSEWHERE. WAVES OVER THE BAY WILL BE 3-5
FT...WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS AT 6-10 FT. A HI SURF ADVSRY ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM FOR OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK DUE TO
NEARSHORE WAVES AOA 8 FT. ALL MARINE HEADLINES END DURING THE DAY
TDA AS WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE AS THE HI BLDS IN. SEAS OVER SRN
CSTL WTRS MAY REMAIN AOA 5 FT THRU THIS EVENG. BENIGN MARINE CONDS
EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND WITH THE HI REMAINING IN THE VICINITY
AND SLOWLY SLIDING OFFSHORE. THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM AFFECTS THE
REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PRECIPITATION AND MELTING SNOW WILL CAUSE MANY AREA RIVER LEVELS
WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME REACHING
THREE QUARTERS BANKFULL OR HIGHER. THE JAMES RIVER AT RICHMOND
WESTHAM IS FORECAST TO GO INTO MINOR FLOOD ON SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING 3/6:
 RIC...15 IN 1960
 ORF...20 IN 1901
 SBY...13 IN 1968
 ECG...20 IN 1960

RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR 3/6:
 RIC...28 IN 1901
 ORF...28 IN 1901
 SBY...31 IN 1960
 ECG...37 IN 1960

RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY 3/7:
 RIC...12 IN 1960
 ORF...17 IN 1899
 SBY...11 IN 1960
 ECG...17 IN 1960

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ102.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-
     650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...AJZ/TMG
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 061145
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
645 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND
BRINGING A STEADY MODERATING TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM TX THROUGH NEW ENGLAND...AND BUILDING
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID/UPPER
TEENS OVER WRN/NRN PORTIONS...WITH LOW/MID 20S FOR CENTRAL AND SE
PORTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH SUNRISE...AND
WHEN COMBINED WITH A 10-15MPH NORTHERLY WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND
CHILLS FROM ZERO TO 10 ABOVE. THERE IS STILL SOME SC LINGERING OVER
SE VA/NE NC AND PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES...BUT THIS PUSH OFFSHORE BY 7
AM. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SUNNY COLD DAY WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. THE PRESENCE OF AN ARCTIC INVERSION WILL LIMIT
MIXING...AND HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 30-35F (ABOUT -2 ST DEV)
DESPITE EARLY MARCH SOLAR INSOLATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A CLEAR AND UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT. MANY LOCATIONS WILL
EXPERIENCE LOWS IN THE LOW/MID TEENS...WHICH AGAIN ARE NEARLY -2 ST
DEV FROM THE SEASONAL MEAN.

INCREASING ZONAL FLOW THIS WEEKEND WILL PUSH THE ARCTIC HIGH WELL
OFFSHORE. ADDITIONALLY ANY NRN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL STAY WELL N OF
THE MID ATLANTIC. SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A SUBSTANTIAL
MODERATING TREND...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONAL NORMALS
BY SUNDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S OVER
INTERIOR VA AND NE NC...WITH LOW/MID 40S OVER THE ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL SE VA/NE NC. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER
50S...WITH LOCALLY COOLER READINGS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC
COAST. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE MILDER AND RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. SKY COVER SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR/SUNNY...WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE N.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/CMC/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND THESE MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR. MORE OF A SPLIT/ZONAL
PATTERN WILL AFFECT THE CNTRL/ERN U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD
RESULTING IN NEAR OR SLGTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACRS THE FCST AREA.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACRS THE REGION SUN NGT INTO MON MORNG
POSSIBLY TRIGGERING ISLTD RAIN SHOWERS. MON NGT INTO TUE NGT...SFC
HI PRES WILL BE SLIDING ACRS EXTRM NRN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...WHILE WEAK LO PRES WILL BE MOVING FM THE GULF OF MEXICO
ENE AND OFF THE SE CST. AS A RESULT...SOME DEEPER LO LVL MOISTURE
WILL LIFT NWRD INTO AT LEAST SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. 00Z
GFS/CMC/ECMWF EACH TRENDED NWD WITH THIS SYSTM...SO POPS HAVE BEEN
TRENDED UPWARD TO 30-40% N TO 40-50% S. OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY
WX...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE SLGT CHC OVR NE NC COUNTIES...FOR WED AFTN
THRU THU AS HI PRES BLDS FARTHER S. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE
MID 30S TO LWR 40S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 40S TO
UPR 50S MON AND TUE...AND IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 11Z...VFR CONDS ARE FOUND AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH SOME
CLOUDS NR 3K FT COMING OFF THE BAY NR KORF ATTM. THIS MAY CONTINUE
THRU MID MORNG BEFORE SKIES BCM SUNNY...AS THEY ALREADY ARE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. OTWS...NLY WINDS REMAIN BREEZY THIS MORNG
AS SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTN
AND ESPECIALLY TNGT AS THE HI SLIDES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. DRY WX
AND VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE WEEKEND WITH THE HI REMAINING IN
THE VICINITY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN MON NIGHT/TUE WITH
THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRNT AND ASSOCIATED LO PRES PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE TDA AS
SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. N WINDS REMAIN RATHER STRONG THIS
MORNG...WITH GALE CONDS CONTINUING THRU 7 AM FOR SRN CSTL WTRS AND
THE SOUND...AND SCA ELSEWHERE. WAVES OVER THE BAY WILL BE 3-5
FT...WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS AT 6-10 FT. A HI SURF ADVSRY ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM FOR OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK DUE TO
NEARSHORE WAVES AOA 8 FT. ALL MARINE HEADLINES END DURING THE DAY
TDA AS WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE AS THE HI BLDS IN. SEAS OVER SRN
CSTL WTRS MAY REMAIN AOA 5 FT THRU THIS EVENG. BENIGN MARINE CONDS
EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND WITH THE HI REMAINING IN THE VICINITY
AND SLOWLY SLIDING OFFSHORE. THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM AFFECTS THE
REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PRECIPITATION AND MELTING SNOW WILL CAUSE MANY AREA RIVER LEVELS
WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME REACHING
THREE QUARTERS BANKFULL OR HIGHER. THE JAMES RIVER AT RICHMOND
WESTHAM IS FORECAST TO GO INTO MINOR FLOOD ON SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING 3/6:
 RIC...15 IN 1960
 ORF...20 IN 1901
 SBY...13 IN 1968
 ECG...20 IN 1960

RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR 3/6:
 RIC...28 IN 1901
 ORF...28 IN 1901
 SBY...31 IN 1960
 ECG...37 IN 1960

RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY 3/7:
 RIC...12 IN 1960
 ORF...17 IN 1899
 SBY...11 IN 1960
 ECG...17 IN 1960

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ102.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-
     650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...AJZ/TMG
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 061145
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
645 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND
BRINGING A STEADY MODERATING TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM TX THROUGH NEW ENGLAND...AND BUILDING
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID/UPPER
TEENS OVER WRN/NRN PORTIONS...WITH LOW/MID 20S FOR CENTRAL AND SE
PORTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH SUNRISE...AND
WHEN COMBINED WITH A 10-15MPH NORTHERLY WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND
CHILLS FROM ZERO TO 10 ABOVE. THERE IS STILL SOME SC LINGERING OVER
SE VA/NE NC AND PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES...BUT THIS PUSH OFFSHORE BY 7
AM. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SUNNY COLD DAY WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. THE PRESENCE OF AN ARCTIC INVERSION WILL LIMIT
MIXING...AND HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 30-35F (ABOUT -2 ST DEV)
DESPITE EARLY MARCH SOLAR INSOLATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A CLEAR AND UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT. MANY LOCATIONS WILL
EXPERIENCE LOWS IN THE LOW/MID TEENS...WHICH AGAIN ARE NEARLY -2 ST
DEV FROM THE SEASONAL MEAN.

INCREASING ZONAL FLOW THIS WEEKEND WILL PUSH THE ARCTIC HIGH WELL
OFFSHORE. ADDITIONALLY ANY NRN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL STAY WELL N OF
THE MID ATLANTIC. SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A SUBSTANTIAL
MODERATING TREND...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONAL NORMALS
BY SUNDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S OVER
INTERIOR VA AND NE NC...WITH LOW/MID 40S OVER THE ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL SE VA/NE NC. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER
50S...WITH LOCALLY COOLER READINGS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC
COAST. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE MILDER AND RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. SKY COVER SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR/SUNNY...WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE N.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/CMC/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND THESE MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR. MORE OF A SPLIT/ZONAL
PATTERN WILL AFFECT THE CNTRL/ERN U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD
RESULTING IN NEAR OR SLGTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACRS THE FCST AREA.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACRS THE REGION SUN NGT INTO MON MORNG
POSSIBLY TRIGGERING ISLTD RAIN SHOWERS. MON NGT INTO TUE NGT...SFC
HI PRES WILL BE SLIDING ACRS EXTRM NRN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...WHILE WEAK LO PRES WILL BE MOVING FM THE GULF OF MEXICO
ENE AND OFF THE SE CST. AS A RESULT...SOME DEEPER LO LVL MOISTURE
WILL LIFT NWRD INTO AT LEAST SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. 00Z
GFS/CMC/ECMWF EACH TRENDED NWD WITH THIS SYSTM...SO POPS HAVE BEEN
TRENDED UPWARD TO 30-40% N TO 40-50% S. OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY
WX...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE SLGT CHC OVR NE NC COUNTIES...FOR WED AFTN
THRU THU AS HI PRES BLDS FARTHER S. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE
MID 30S TO LWR 40S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 40S TO
UPR 50S MON AND TUE...AND IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 11Z...VFR CONDS ARE FOUND AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH SOME
CLOUDS NR 3K FT COMING OFF THE BAY NR KORF ATTM. THIS MAY CONTINUE
THRU MID MORNG BEFORE SKIES BCM SUNNY...AS THEY ALREADY ARE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. OTWS...NLY WINDS REMAIN BREEZY THIS MORNG
AS SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTN
AND ESPECIALLY TNGT AS THE HI SLIDES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. DRY WX
AND VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE WEEKEND WITH THE HI REMAINING IN
THE VICINITY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN MON NIGHT/TUE WITH
THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRNT AND ASSOCIATED LO PRES PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE TDA AS
SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. N WINDS REMAIN RATHER STRONG THIS
MORNG...WITH GALE CONDS CONTINUING THRU 7 AM FOR SRN CSTL WTRS AND
THE SOUND...AND SCA ELSEWHERE. WAVES OVER THE BAY WILL BE 3-5
FT...WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS AT 6-10 FT. A HI SURF ADVSRY ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM FOR OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK DUE TO
NEARSHORE WAVES AOA 8 FT. ALL MARINE HEADLINES END DURING THE DAY
TDA AS WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE AS THE HI BLDS IN. SEAS OVER SRN
CSTL WTRS MAY REMAIN AOA 5 FT THRU THIS EVENG. BENIGN MARINE CONDS
EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND WITH THE HI REMAINING IN THE VICINITY
AND SLOWLY SLIDING OFFSHORE. THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM AFFECTS THE
REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PRECIPITATION AND MELTING SNOW WILL CAUSE MANY AREA RIVER LEVELS
WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME REACHING
THREE QUARTERS BANKFULL OR HIGHER. THE JAMES RIVER AT RICHMOND
WESTHAM IS FORECAST TO GO INTO MINOR FLOOD ON SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING 3/6:
 RIC...15 IN 1960
 ORF...20 IN 1901
 SBY...13 IN 1968
 ECG...20 IN 1960

RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR 3/6:
 RIC...28 IN 1901
 ORF...28 IN 1901
 SBY...31 IN 1960
 ECG...37 IN 1960

RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY 3/7:
 RIC...12 IN 1960
 ORF...17 IN 1899
 SBY...11 IN 1960
 ECG...17 IN 1960

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ102.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-
     650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...AJZ/TMG
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 061105
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
605 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO UPDATES NEEDED EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE
RIGHT ON TRACK WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.  PREV DISCUSSION BELOW..

SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD TODAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT WILL BE ONGOING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WHICH WILL REACH CENTRAL OHIO BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WOULD
EXPECT SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...BUT SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING THAT LOW CU WILL DEVELOP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. TEMPS
WILL BE 25 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL HAVE EJECTED TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE TROUGH RUSHES TO
THE EAST COAST.

MODELS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO SHOW A SETUP FOR THE WEEKEND THAT DOES
NOT APPEAR VERY PLEASANT. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF
STRATOCU QUICKLY COVERING THE REGION ON SATURDAY. IF THIS COMES
TO FRUITION...NOT ONLY WILL THERE BE LITTLE TO NO SUNSHINE
SATURDAY BUT TEMPS WILL ALSO BE COLDER THEN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.

A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHES THE BOUNDARY THROUGH. SATURATED LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN
UNDERNEATH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE. HAVE
KEPT POPS CONFINED TO THE NORTH AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANCE TO
MAKE ANY SNOW ELSEWHERE AS THE AIR ABOVE THE STRATOCU LAYER WILL
BE VERY DRY AND SNOW GROWTH ZONES WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE CLOUD
DECK. I THINK THE MAIN FOCUS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO BE ON THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP. ITS A TOUGH CALL AT THIS
POINT...BUT WITH NO ICE FALLING INTO THE SATURATED LOWER LEVELS
AND SNOW GROWTH ZONES SO HIGH...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO
MAKE SNOW. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE FINE TUNED AS
THE MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE ENTIRE SETUP.

IF CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT IS CORRECT...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH
IMPROVEMENT ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN PARKED
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS DOWN AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. CU RULE INDICATES JUST
SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CU FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING THAT FKL AND DUJ COULD GO BROKEN IN THE AFTERNOON
PROMPTING THE INCLUSION OF HIGH MVFR CIGS AT THESE PORTS.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OHIO RIVER AT THE POINT IN
PITTSBURGH...AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR CHARLEROI AND
ELIZABETH ON THE MONONGAHELA RIVER. CRESTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED
AT THESE POINTS...AND LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...2 SET IN 1901.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...12 SET IN 1960...1969...AND
1972.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...5 SET IN 1960.

ALL TIME LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH AT
PITTSBURGH IS -1...SET ON...3/4/1943...3/9/1960...AND 3/2/1980.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 061105
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
605 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO UPDATES NEEDED EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE
RIGHT ON TRACK WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.  PREV DISCUSSION BELOW..

SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD TODAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT WILL BE ONGOING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WHICH WILL REACH CENTRAL OHIO BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WOULD
EXPECT SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...BUT SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING THAT LOW CU WILL DEVELOP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. TEMPS
WILL BE 25 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL HAVE EJECTED TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE TROUGH RUSHES TO
THE EAST COAST.

MODELS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO SHOW A SETUP FOR THE WEEKEND THAT DOES
NOT APPEAR VERY PLEASANT. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF
STRATOCU QUICKLY COVERING THE REGION ON SATURDAY. IF THIS COMES
TO FRUITION...NOT ONLY WILL THERE BE LITTLE TO NO SUNSHINE
SATURDAY BUT TEMPS WILL ALSO BE COLDER THEN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.

A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHES THE BOUNDARY THROUGH. SATURATED LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN
UNDERNEATH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE. HAVE
KEPT POPS CONFINED TO THE NORTH AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANCE TO
MAKE ANY SNOW ELSEWHERE AS THE AIR ABOVE THE STRATOCU LAYER WILL
BE VERY DRY AND SNOW GROWTH ZONES WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE CLOUD
DECK. I THINK THE MAIN FOCUS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO BE ON THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP. ITS A TOUGH CALL AT THIS
POINT...BUT WITH NO ICE FALLING INTO THE SATURATED LOWER LEVELS
AND SNOW GROWTH ZONES SO HIGH...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO
MAKE SNOW. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE FINE TUNED AS
THE MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE ENTIRE SETUP.

IF CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT IS CORRECT...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH
IMPROVEMENT ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN PARKED
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS DOWN AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. CU RULE INDICATES JUST
SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CU FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING THAT FKL AND DUJ COULD GO BROKEN IN THE AFTERNOON
PROMPTING THE INCLUSION OF HIGH MVFR CIGS AT THESE PORTS.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OHIO RIVER AT THE POINT IN
PITTSBURGH...AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR CHARLEROI AND
ELIZABETH ON THE MONONGAHELA RIVER. CRESTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED
AT THESE POINTS...AND LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...2 SET IN 1901.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...12 SET IN 1960...1969...AND
1972.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...5 SET IN 1960.

ALL TIME LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH AT
PITTSBURGH IS -1...SET ON...3/4/1943...3/9/1960...AND 3/2/1980.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 061105
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
605 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO UPDATES NEEDED EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE
RIGHT ON TRACK WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.  PREV DISCUSSION BELOW..

SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD TODAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT WILL BE ONGOING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WHICH WILL REACH CENTRAL OHIO BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WOULD
EXPECT SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...BUT SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING THAT LOW CU WILL DEVELOP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. TEMPS
WILL BE 25 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL HAVE EJECTED TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE TROUGH RUSHES TO
THE EAST COAST.

MODELS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO SHOW A SETUP FOR THE WEEKEND THAT DOES
NOT APPEAR VERY PLEASANT. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF
STRATOCU QUICKLY COVERING THE REGION ON SATURDAY. IF THIS COMES
TO FRUITION...NOT ONLY WILL THERE BE LITTLE TO NO SUNSHINE
SATURDAY BUT TEMPS WILL ALSO BE COLDER THEN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.

A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHES THE BOUNDARY THROUGH. SATURATED LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN
UNDERNEATH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE. HAVE
KEPT POPS CONFINED TO THE NORTH AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANCE TO
MAKE ANY SNOW ELSEWHERE AS THE AIR ABOVE THE STRATOCU LAYER WILL
BE VERY DRY AND SNOW GROWTH ZONES WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE CLOUD
DECK. I THINK THE MAIN FOCUS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO BE ON THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP. ITS A TOUGH CALL AT THIS
POINT...BUT WITH NO ICE FALLING INTO THE SATURATED LOWER LEVELS
AND SNOW GROWTH ZONES SO HIGH...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO
MAKE SNOW. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE FINE TUNED AS
THE MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE ENTIRE SETUP.

IF CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT IS CORRECT...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH
IMPROVEMENT ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN PARKED
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS DOWN AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. CU RULE INDICATES JUST
SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CU FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING THAT FKL AND DUJ COULD GO BROKEN IN THE AFTERNOON
PROMPTING THE INCLUSION OF HIGH MVFR CIGS AT THESE PORTS.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OHIO RIVER AT THE POINT IN
PITTSBURGH...AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR CHARLEROI AND
ELIZABETH ON THE MONONGAHELA RIVER. CRESTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED
AT THESE POINTS...AND LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...2 SET IN 1901.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...12 SET IN 1960...1969...AND
1972.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...5 SET IN 1960.

ALL TIME LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH AT
PITTSBURGH IS -1...SET ON...3/4/1943...3/9/1960...AND 3/2/1980.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 061105
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
605 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO UPDATES NEEDED EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE
RIGHT ON TRACK WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.  PREV DISCUSSION BELOW..

SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD TODAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT WILL BE ONGOING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WHICH WILL REACH CENTRAL OHIO BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WOULD
EXPECT SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...BUT SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING THAT LOW CU WILL DEVELOP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. TEMPS
WILL BE 25 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL HAVE EJECTED TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE TROUGH RUSHES TO
THE EAST COAST.

MODELS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO SHOW A SETUP FOR THE WEEKEND THAT DOES
NOT APPEAR VERY PLEASANT. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF
STRATOCU QUICKLY COVERING THE REGION ON SATURDAY. IF THIS COMES
TO FRUITION...NOT ONLY WILL THERE BE LITTLE TO NO SUNSHINE
SATURDAY BUT TEMPS WILL ALSO BE COLDER THEN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.

A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHES THE BOUNDARY THROUGH. SATURATED LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN
UNDERNEATH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE. HAVE
KEPT POPS CONFINED TO THE NORTH AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANCE TO
MAKE ANY SNOW ELSEWHERE AS THE AIR ABOVE THE STRATOCU LAYER WILL
BE VERY DRY AND SNOW GROWTH ZONES WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE CLOUD
DECK. I THINK THE MAIN FOCUS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO BE ON THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP. ITS A TOUGH CALL AT THIS
POINT...BUT WITH NO ICE FALLING INTO THE SATURATED LOWER LEVELS
AND SNOW GROWTH ZONES SO HIGH...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO
MAKE SNOW. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE FINE TUNED AS
THE MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE ENTIRE SETUP.

IF CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT IS CORRECT...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH
IMPROVEMENT ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN PARKED
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS DOWN AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. CU RULE INDICATES JUST
SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CU FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING THAT FKL AND DUJ COULD GO BROKEN IN THE AFTERNOON
PROMPTING THE INCLUSION OF HIGH MVFR CIGS AT THESE PORTS.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OHIO RIVER AT THE POINT IN
PITTSBURGH...AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR CHARLEROI AND
ELIZABETH ON THE MONONGAHELA RIVER. CRESTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED
AT THESE POINTS...AND LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...2 SET IN 1901.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...12 SET IN 1960...1969...AND
1972.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...5 SET IN 1960.

ALL TIME LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH AT
PITTSBURGH IS -1...SET ON...3/4/1943...3/9/1960...AND 3/2/1980.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 061105
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
605 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO UPDATES NEEDED EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE
RIGHT ON TRACK WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.  PREV DISCUSSION BELOW..

SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD TODAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT WILL BE ONGOING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WHICH WILL REACH CENTRAL OHIO BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WOULD
EXPECT SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...BUT SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING THAT LOW CU WILL DEVELOP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. TEMPS
WILL BE 25 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL HAVE EJECTED TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE TROUGH RUSHES TO
THE EAST COAST.

MODELS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO SHOW A SETUP FOR THE WEEKEND THAT DOES
NOT APPEAR VERY PLEASANT. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF
STRATOCU QUICKLY COVERING THE REGION ON SATURDAY. IF THIS COMES
TO FRUITION...NOT ONLY WILL THERE BE LITTLE TO NO SUNSHINE
SATURDAY BUT TEMPS WILL ALSO BE COLDER THEN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.

A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHES THE BOUNDARY THROUGH. SATURATED LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN
UNDERNEATH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE. HAVE
KEPT POPS CONFINED TO THE NORTH AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANCE TO
MAKE ANY SNOW ELSEWHERE AS THE AIR ABOVE THE STRATOCU LAYER WILL
BE VERY DRY AND SNOW GROWTH ZONES WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE CLOUD
DECK. I THINK THE MAIN FOCUS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO BE ON THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP. ITS A TOUGH CALL AT THIS
POINT...BUT WITH NO ICE FALLING INTO THE SATURATED LOWER LEVELS
AND SNOW GROWTH ZONES SO HIGH...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO
MAKE SNOW. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE FINE TUNED AS
THE MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE ENTIRE SETUP.

IF CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT IS CORRECT...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH
IMPROVEMENT ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN PARKED
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS DOWN AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. CU RULE INDICATES JUST
SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CU FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING THAT FKL AND DUJ COULD GO BROKEN IN THE AFTERNOON
PROMPTING THE INCLUSION OF HIGH MVFR CIGS AT THESE PORTS.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OHIO RIVER AT THE POINT IN
PITTSBURGH...AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR CHARLEROI AND
ELIZABETH ON THE MONONGAHELA RIVER. CRESTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED
AT THESE POINTS...AND LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...2 SET IN 1901.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...12 SET IN 1960...1969...AND
1972.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...5 SET IN 1960.

ALL TIME LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH AT
PITTSBURGH IS -1...SET ON...3/4/1943...3/9/1960...AND 3/2/1980.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 061105
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
605 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO UPDATES NEEDED EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE
RIGHT ON TRACK WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.  PREV DISCUSSION BELOW..

SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD TODAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT WILL BE ONGOING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WHICH WILL REACH CENTRAL OHIO BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WOULD
EXPECT SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...BUT SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING THAT LOW CU WILL DEVELOP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. TEMPS
WILL BE 25 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL HAVE EJECTED TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE TROUGH RUSHES TO
THE EAST COAST.

MODELS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO SHOW A SETUP FOR THE WEEKEND THAT DOES
NOT APPEAR VERY PLEASANT. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF
STRATOCU QUICKLY COVERING THE REGION ON SATURDAY. IF THIS COMES
TO FRUITION...NOT ONLY WILL THERE BE LITTLE TO NO SUNSHINE
SATURDAY BUT TEMPS WILL ALSO BE COLDER THEN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.

A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHES THE BOUNDARY THROUGH. SATURATED LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN
UNDERNEATH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE. HAVE
KEPT POPS CONFINED TO THE NORTH AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANCE TO
MAKE ANY SNOW ELSEWHERE AS THE AIR ABOVE THE STRATOCU LAYER WILL
BE VERY DRY AND SNOW GROWTH ZONES WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE CLOUD
DECK. I THINK THE MAIN FOCUS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO BE ON THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP. ITS A TOUGH CALL AT THIS
POINT...BUT WITH NO ICE FALLING INTO THE SATURATED LOWER LEVELS
AND SNOW GROWTH ZONES SO HIGH...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO
MAKE SNOW. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE FINE TUNED AS
THE MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE ENTIRE SETUP.

IF CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT IS CORRECT...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH
IMPROVEMENT ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN PARKED
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS DOWN AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. CU RULE INDICATES JUST
SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CU FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING THAT FKL AND DUJ COULD GO BROKEN IN THE AFTERNOON
PROMPTING THE INCLUSION OF HIGH MVFR CIGS AT THESE PORTS.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OHIO RIVER AT THE POINT IN
PITTSBURGH...AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR CHARLEROI AND
ELIZABETH ON THE MONONGAHELA RIVER. CRESTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED
AT THESE POINTS...AND LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...2 SET IN 1901.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...12 SET IN 1960...1969...AND
1972.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...5 SET IN 1960.

ALL TIME LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH AT
PITTSBURGH IS -1...SET ON...3/4/1943...3/9/1960...AND 3/2/1980.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 060948 AAA
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
448 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND
BRINGING A STEADY MODERATING TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM TX THROUGH NEW ENGLAND...AND BUILDING
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID/UPPER
TEENS OVER WRN/NRN PORTIONS...WITH LOW/MID 20S FOR CENTRAL AND SE
PORTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH SUNRISE...AND
WHEN COMBINED WITH A 10-15MPH NORTHERLY WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND
CHILLS FROM ZERO TO 10 ABOVE. THERE IS STILL SOME SC LINGERING OVER
SE VA/NE NC AND PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES...BUT THIS PUSH OFFSHORE BY 7
AM. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SUNNY COLD DAY WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. THE PRESENCE OF AN ARCTIC INVERSION WILL LIMIT
MIXING...AND HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 30-35F (ABOUT -2 ST DEV)
DESPITE EARLY MARCH SOLAR INSOLATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A CLEAR AND UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT. MANY LOCATIONS WILL
EXPERIENCE LOWS IN THE LOW/MID TEENS...WHICH AGAIN ARE NEARLY -2 ST
DEV FROM THE SEASONAL MEAN.

INCREASING ZONAL FLOW THIS WEEKEND WILL PUSH THE ARCTIC HIGH WELL
OFFSHORE. ADDITIONALLY ANY NRN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL STAY WELL N OF
THE MID ATLANTIC. SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A SUBSTANTIAL
MODERATING TREND...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONAL NORMALS
BY SUNDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S OVER
INTERIOR VA AND NE NC...WITH LOW/MID 40S OVER THE ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL SE VA/NE NC. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER
50S...WITH LOCALLY COOLER READINGS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC
COAST. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE MILDER AND RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. SKY COVER SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR/SUNNY...WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE N.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/CMC/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND THESE MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR. MORE OF A SPLIT/ZONAL
PATTERN WILL AFFECT THE CNTRL/ERN U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD
RESULTING IN NEAR OR SLGTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACRS THE FCST AREA.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACRS THE REGION SUN NGT INTO MON MORNG
POSSIBLY TRIGGERING ISLTD RAIN SHOWERS. MON NGT INTO TUE NGT...SFC
HI PRES WILL BE SLIDING ACRS EXTRM NRN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...WHILE WEAK LO PRES WILL BE MOVING FM THE GULF OF MEXICO
ENE AND OFF THE SE CST. AS A RESULT...SOME DEEPER LO LVL MOISTURE
WILL LIFT NWRD INTO AT LEAST SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. 00Z
GFS/CMC/ECMWF EACH TRENDED NWD WITH THIS SYSTM...SO POPS HAVE BEEN
TRENDED UPWARD TO 30-40% N TO 40-50% S. OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY
WX...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE SLGT CHC OVR NE NC COUNTIES...FOR WED AFTN
THRU THU AS HI PRES BLDS FARTHER S. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE
MID 30S TO LWR 40S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 40S TO
UPR 50S MON AND TUE...AND IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...PCPN IS ENDING OVER SE AREAS WITH SCT FLURRIES STILL
PSBL NEAR THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR ALL LOCATIONS
WITHIN A FEW HRS AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THIS AFTN. GUSTY
NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND WILL
DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING.

OUTLOOK...VFR AND DRY WEATHER ARE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRNT AND ASSOCIATED LO PRES PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE TDA AS
SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. N WINDS REMAIN RATHER STRONG THIS
MORNG...WITH GALE CONDS CONTINUING THRU 7 AM FOR SRN CSTL WTRS AND
THE SOUND...AND SCA ELSEWHERE. WAVES OVER THE BAY WILL BE 3-5
FT...WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS AT 6-10 FT. A HI SURF ADVSRY ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM FOR OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK DUE TO
NEARSHORE WAVES AOA 8 FT. ALL MARINE HEADLINES END DURING THE DAY
TDA AS WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE AS THE HI BLDS IN. SEAS OVER SRN
CSTL WTRS MAY REMAIN AOA 5 FT THRU THIS EVENG. BENIGN MARINE CONDS
EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND WITH THE HI REMAINING IN THE VICINITY
AND SLOWLY SLIDING OFFSHORE. THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM AFFECTS THE
REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PRECIPITATION AND MELTING SNOW WILL CAUSE MANY AREA RIVER LEVELS
WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME REACHING
THREE QUARTERS BANKFULL OR HIGHER. THE JAMES RIVER AT RICHMOND
WESTHAM IS FORECAST TO GO INTO MINOR FLOOD ON SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING 3/6:
 RIC...15 IN 1960
 ORF...20 IN 1901
 SBY...13 IN 1968
 ECG...20 IN 1960

RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR 3/6:
 RIC...28 IN 1901
 ORF...28 IN 1901
 SBY...31 IN 1960
 ECG...37 IN 1960

RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY 3/7:
 RIC...12 IN 1960
 ORF...17 IN 1899
 SBY...11 IN 1960
 ECG...17 IN 1960

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ102.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ632-
     634.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ633-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630-
     631-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...TMG/AJZ
AVIATION...MAS/LSA
MARINE...MAS
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
CLIMATE...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 060948 AAA
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
448 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND
BRINGING A STEADY MODERATING TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM TX THROUGH NEW ENGLAND...AND BUILDING
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID/UPPER
TEENS OVER WRN/NRN PORTIONS...WITH LOW/MID 20S FOR CENTRAL AND SE
PORTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH SUNRISE...AND
WHEN COMBINED WITH A 10-15MPH NORTHERLY WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND
CHILLS FROM ZERO TO 10 ABOVE. THERE IS STILL SOME SC LINGERING OVER
SE VA/NE NC AND PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES...BUT THIS PUSH OFFSHORE BY 7
AM. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SUNNY COLD DAY WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. THE PRESENCE OF AN ARCTIC INVERSION WILL LIMIT
MIXING...AND HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 30-35F (ABOUT -2 ST DEV)
DESPITE EARLY MARCH SOLAR INSOLATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A CLEAR AND UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT. MANY LOCATIONS WILL
EXPERIENCE LOWS IN THE LOW/MID TEENS...WHICH AGAIN ARE NEARLY -2 ST
DEV FROM THE SEASONAL MEAN.

INCREASING ZONAL FLOW THIS WEEKEND WILL PUSH THE ARCTIC HIGH WELL
OFFSHORE. ADDITIONALLY ANY NRN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL STAY WELL N OF
THE MID ATLANTIC. SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A SUBSTANTIAL
MODERATING TREND...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONAL NORMALS
BY SUNDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S OVER
INTERIOR VA AND NE NC...WITH LOW/MID 40S OVER THE ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL SE VA/NE NC. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER
50S...WITH LOCALLY COOLER READINGS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC
COAST. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE MILDER AND RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. SKY COVER SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR/SUNNY...WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE N.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/CMC/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND THESE MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR. MORE OF A SPLIT/ZONAL
PATTERN WILL AFFECT THE CNTRL/ERN U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD
RESULTING IN NEAR OR SLGTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACRS THE FCST AREA.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACRS THE REGION SUN NGT INTO MON MORNG
POSSIBLY TRIGGERING ISLTD RAIN SHOWERS. MON NGT INTO TUE NGT...SFC
HI PRES WILL BE SLIDING ACRS EXTRM NRN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...WHILE WEAK LO PRES WILL BE MOVING FM THE GULF OF MEXICO
ENE AND OFF THE SE CST. AS A RESULT...SOME DEEPER LO LVL MOISTURE
WILL LIFT NWRD INTO AT LEAST SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. 00Z
GFS/CMC/ECMWF EACH TRENDED NWD WITH THIS SYSTM...SO POPS HAVE BEEN
TRENDED UPWARD TO 30-40% N TO 40-50% S. OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY
WX...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE SLGT CHC OVR NE NC COUNTIES...FOR WED AFTN
THRU THU AS HI PRES BLDS FARTHER S. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE
MID 30S TO LWR 40S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 40S TO
UPR 50S MON AND TUE...AND IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...PCPN IS ENDING OVER SE AREAS WITH SCT FLURRIES STILL
PSBL NEAR THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR ALL LOCATIONS
WITHIN A FEW HRS AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THIS AFTN. GUSTY
NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND WILL
DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING.

OUTLOOK...VFR AND DRY WEATHER ARE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRNT AND ASSOCIATED LO PRES PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE TDA AS
SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. N WINDS REMAIN RATHER STRONG THIS
MORNG...WITH GALE CONDS CONTINUING THRU 7 AM FOR SRN CSTL WTRS AND
THE SOUND...AND SCA ELSEWHERE. WAVES OVER THE BAY WILL BE 3-5
FT...WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS AT 6-10 FT. A HI SURF ADVSRY ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM FOR OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK DUE TO
NEARSHORE WAVES AOA 8 FT. ALL MARINE HEADLINES END DURING THE DAY
TDA AS WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE AS THE HI BLDS IN. SEAS OVER SRN
CSTL WTRS MAY REMAIN AOA 5 FT THRU THIS EVENG. BENIGN MARINE CONDS
EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND WITH THE HI REMAINING IN THE VICINITY
AND SLOWLY SLIDING OFFSHORE. THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM AFFECTS THE
REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PRECIPITATION AND MELTING SNOW WILL CAUSE MANY AREA RIVER LEVELS
WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME REACHING
THREE QUARTERS BANKFULL OR HIGHER. THE JAMES RIVER AT RICHMOND
WESTHAM IS FORECAST TO GO INTO MINOR FLOOD ON SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING 3/6:
 RIC...15 IN 1960
 ORF...20 IN 1901
 SBY...13 IN 1968
 ECG...20 IN 1960

RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR 3/6:
 RIC...28 IN 1901
 ORF...28 IN 1901
 SBY...31 IN 1960
 ECG...37 IN 1960

RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY 3/7:
 RIC...12 IN 1960
 ORF...17 IN 1899
 SBY...11 IN 1960
 ECG...17 IN 1960

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ102.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ632-
     634.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ633-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630-
     631-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...TMG/AJZ
AVIATION...MAS/LSA
MARINE...MAS
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
CLIMATE...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 060948 AAA
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
448 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND
BRINGING A STEADY MODERATING TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM TX THROUGH NEW ENGLAND...AND BUILDING
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID/UPPER
TEENS OVER WRN/NRN PORTIONS...WITH LOW/MID 20S FOR CENTRAL AND SE
PORTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH SUNRISE...AND
WHEN COMBINED WITH A 10-15MPH NORTHERLY WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND
CHILLS FROM ZERO TO 10 ABOVE. THERE IS STILL SOME SC LINGERING OVER
SE VA/NE NC AND PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES...BUT THIS PUSH OFFSHORE BY 7
AM. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SUNNY COLD DAY WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. THE PRESENCE OF AN ARCTIC INVERSION WILL LIMIT
MIXING...AND HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 30-35F (ABOUT -2 ST DEV)
DESPITE EARLY MARCH SOLAR INSOLATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A CLEAR AND UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT. MANY LOCATIONS WILL
EXPERIENCE LOWS IN THE LOW/MID TEENS...WHICH AGAIN ARE NEARLY -2 ST
DEV FROM THE SEASONAL MEAN.

INCREASING ZONAL FLOW THIS WEEKEND WILL PUSH THE ARCTIC HIGH WELL
OFFSHORE. ADDITIONALLY ANY NRN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL STAY WELL N OF
THE MID ATLANTIC. SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A SUBSTANTIAL
MODERATING TREND...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONAL NORMALS
BY SUNDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S OVER
INTERIOR VA AND NE NC...WITH LOW/MID 40S OVER THE ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL SE VA/NE NC. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER
50S...WITH LOCALLY COOLER READINGS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC
COAST. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE MILDER AND RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. SKY COVER SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR/SUNNY...WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE N.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/CMC/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND THESE MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR. MORE OF A SPLIT/ZONAL
PATTERN WILL AFFECT THE CNTRL/ERN U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD
RESULTING IN NEAR OR SLGTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACRS THE FCST AREA.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACRS THE REGION SUN NGT INTO MON MORNG
POSSIBLY TRIGGERING ISLTD RAIN SHOWERS. MON NGT INTO TUE NGT...SFC
HI PRES WILL BE SLIDING ACRS EXTRM NRN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...WHILE WEAK LO PRES WILL BE MOVING FM THE GULF OF MEXICO
ENE AND OFF THE SE CST. AS A RESULT...SOME DEEPER LO LVL MOISTURE
WILL LIFT NWRD INTO AT LEAST SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. 00Z
GFS/CMC/ECMWF EACH TRENDED NWD WITH THIS SYSTM...SO POPS HAVE BEEN
TRENDED UPWARD TO 30-40% N TO 40-50% S. OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY
WX...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE SLGT CHC OVR NE NC COUNTIES...FOR WED AFTN
THRU THU AS HI PRES BLDS FARTHER S. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE
MID 30S TO LWR 40S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 40S TO
UPR 50S MON AND TUE...AND IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...PCPN IS ENDING OVER SE AREAS WITH SCT FLURRIES STILL
PSBL NEAR THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR ALL LOCATIONS
WITHIN A FEW HRS AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THIS AFTN. GUSTY
NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND WILL
DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING.

OUTLOOK...VFR AND DRY WEATHER ARE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRNT AND ASSOCIATED LO PRES PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE TDA AS
SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. N WINDS REMAIN RATHER STRONG THIS
MORNG...WITH GALE CONDS CONTINUING THRU 7 AM FOR SRN CSTL WTRS AND
THE SOUND...AND SCA ELSEWHERE. WAVES OVER THE BAY WILL BE 3-5
FT...WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS AT 6-10 FT. A HI SURF ADVSRY ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM FOR OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK DUE TO
NEARSHORE WAVES AOA 8 FT. ALL MARINE HEADLINES END DURING THE DAY
TDA AS WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE AS THE HI BLDS IN. SEAS OVER SRN
CSTL WTRS MAY REMAIN AOA 5 FT THRU THIS EVENG. BENIGN MARINE CONDS
EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND WITH THE HI REMAINING IN THE VICINITY
AND SLOWLY SLIDING OFFSHORE. THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM AFFECTS THE
REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PRECIPITATION AND MELTING SNOW WILL CAUSE MANY AREA RIVER LEVELS
WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME REACHING
THREE QUARTERS BANKFULL OR HIGHER. THE JAMES RIVER AT RICHMOND
WESTHAM IS FORECAST TO GO INTO MINOR FLOOD ON SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING 3/6:
 RIC...15 IN 1960
 ORF...20 IN 1901
 SBY...13 IN 1968
 ECG...20 IN 1960

RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR 3/6:
 RIC...28 IN 1901
 ORF...28 IN 1901
 SBY...31 IN 1960
 ECG...37 IN 1960

RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY 3/7:
 RIC...12 IN 1960
 ORF...17 IN 1899
 SBY...11 IN 1960
 ECG...17 IN 1960

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ102.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ632-
     634.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ633-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630-
     631-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...TMG/AJZ
AVIATION...MAS/LSA
MARINE...MAS
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
CLIMATE...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 060948 AAA
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
448 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND
BRINGING A STEADY MODERATING TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM TX THROUGH NEW ENGLAND...AND BUILDING
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID/UPPER
TEENS OVER WRN/NRN PORTIONS...WITH LOW/MID 20S FOR CENTRAL AND SE
PORTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH SUNRISE...AND
WHEN COMBINED WITH A 10-15MPH NORTHERLY WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND
CHILLS FROM ZERO TO 10 ABOVE. THERE IS STILL SOME SC LINGERING OVER
SE VA/NE NC AND PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES...BUT THIS PUSH OFFSHORE BY 7
AM. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SUNNY COLD DAY WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. THE PRESENCE OF AN ARCTIC INVERSION WILL LIMIT
MIXING...AND HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 30-35F (ABOUT -2 ST DEV)
DESPITE EARLY MARCH SOLAR INSOLATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A CLEAR AND UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT. MANY LOCATIONS WILL
EXPERIENCE LOWS IN THE LOW/MID TEENS...WHICH AGAIN ARE NEARLY -2 ST
DEV FROM THE SEASONAL MEAN.

INCREASING ZONAL FLOW THIS WEEKEND WILL PUSH THE ARCTIC HIGH WELL
OFFSHORE. ADDITIONALLY ANY NRN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL STAY WELL N OF
THE MID ATLANTIC. SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A SUBSTANTIAL
MODERATING TREND...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONAL NORMALS
BY SUNDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S OVER
INTERIOR VA AND NE NC...WITH LOW/MID 40S OVER THE ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL SE VA/NE NC. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER
50S...WITH LOCALLY COOLER READINGS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC
COAST. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE MILDER AND RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. SKY COVER SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR/SUNNY...WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE N.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/CMC/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND THESE MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR. MORE OF A SPLIT/ZONAL
PATTERN WILL AFFECT THE CNTRL/ERN U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD
RESULTING IN NEAR OR SLGTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACRS THE FCST AREA.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACRS THE REGION SUN NGT INTO MON MORNG
POSSIBLY TRIGGERING ISLTD RAIN SHOWERS. MON NGT INTO TUE NGT...SFC
HI PRES WILL BE SLIDING ACRS EXTRM NRN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...WHILE WEAK LO PRES WILL BE MOVING FM THE GULF OF MEXICO
ENE AND OFF THE SE CST. AS A RESULT...SOME DEEPER LO LVL MOISTURE
WILL LIFT NWRD INTO AT LEAST SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. 00Z
GFS/CMC/ECMWF EACH TRENDED NWD WITH THIS SYSTM...SO POPS HAVE BEEN
TRENDED UPWARD TO 30-40% N TO 40-50% S. OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY
WX...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE SLGT CHC OVR NE NC COUNTIES...FOR WED AFTN
THRU THU AS HI PRES BLDS FARTHER S. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE
MID 30S TO LWR 40S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 40S TO
UPR 50S MON AND TUE...AND IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...PCPN IS ENDING OVER SE AREAS WITH SCT FLURRIES STILL
PSBL NEAR THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR ALL LOCATIONS
WITHIN A FEW HRS AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THIS AFTN. GUSTY
NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND WILL
DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING.

OUTLOOK...VFR AND DRY WEATHER ARE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRNT AND ASSOCIATED LO PRES PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE TDA AS
SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. N WINDS REMAIN RATHER STRONG THIS
MORNG...WITH GALE CONDS CONTINUING THRU 7 AM FOR SRN CSTL WTRS AND
THE SOUND...AND SCA ELSEWHERE. WAVES OVER THE BAY WILL BE 3-5
FT...WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS AT 6-10 FT. A HI SURF ADVSRY ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM FOR OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK DUE TO
NEARSHORE WAVES AOA 8 FT. ALL MARINE HEADLINES END DURING THE DAY
TDA AS WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE AS THE HI BLDS IN. SEAS OVER SRN
CSTL WTRS MAY REMAIN AOA 5 FT THRU THIS EVENG. BENIGN MARINE CONDS
EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND WITH THE HI REMAINING IN THE VICINITY
AND SLOWLY SLIDING OFFSHORE. THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM AFFECTS THE
REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PRECIPITATION AND MELTING SNOW WILL CAUSE MANY AREA RIVER LEVELS
WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME REACHING
THREE QUARTERS BANKFULL OR HIGHER. THE JAMES RIVER AT RICHMOND
WESTHAM IS FORECAST TO GO INTO MINOR FLOOD ON SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING 3/6:
 RIC...15 IN 1960
 ORF...20 IN 1901
 SBY...13 IN 1968
 ECG...20 IN 1960

RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR 3/6:
 RIC...28 IN 1901
 ORF...28 IN 1901
 SBY...31 IN 1960
 ECG...37 IN 1960

RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY 3/7:
 RIC...12 IN 1960
 ORF...17 IN 1899
 SBY...11 IN 1960
 ECG...17 IN 1960

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ102.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ632-
     634.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ633-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630-
     631-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...TMG/AJZ
AVIATION...MAS/LSA
MARINE...MAS
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
CLIMATE...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 060906
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
406 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND
BRINGING A STEADY MODERATING TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM TX THROUGH NEW ENGLAND...AND BUILDING
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID/UPPER
TEENS OVER WRN/NRN PORTIONS...WITH LOW/MID 20S FOR CENTRAL AND SE
PORTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH SUNRISE...AND
WHEN COMBINED WITH A 10-15MPH NORTHERLY WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND
CHILLS FROM ZERO TO 10 ABOVE. THERE IS STILL SOME SC LINGERING OVER
SE VA/NE NC AND PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES...BUT THIS PUSH OFFSHORE BY 7
AM. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SUNNY COLD DAY WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. THE PRESENCE OF AN ARCTIC INVERSION WILL LIMIT
MIXING...AND HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 30-35F (ABOUT -2 ST DEV)
DESPITE EARLY MARCH SOLAR INSOLATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A CLEAR AND UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT. MANY LOCATIONS WILL
EXPERIENCE LOWS IN THE LOW/MID TEENS...WHICH AGAIN ARE NEARLY -2 ST
DEV FROM THE SEASONAL MEAN.

INCREASING ZONAL FLOW THIS WEEKEND WILL PUSH THE ARCTIC HIGH WELL
OFFSHORE. ADDITIONALLY ANY NRN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL STAY WELL N OF
THE MID ATLANTIC. SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A SUBSTANTIAL
MODERATING TREND...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONAL NORMALS
BY SUNDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S OVER
INTERIOR VA AND NE NC...WITH LOW/MID 40S OVER THE ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL SE VA/NE NC. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER
50S...WITH LOCALLY COOLER READINGS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC
COAST. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE MILDER AND RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. SKY COVER SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR/SUNNY...WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE N.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/CMC/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND THESE MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR. MORE OF A SPLIT/ZONAL
PATTERN WILL AFFECT THE CNTRL/ERN U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD
RESULTING IN NEAR OR SLGTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACRS THE FCST AREA.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACRS THE REGION SUN NGT INTO MON MORNG
POSSIBLY TRIGGERING ISLTD RAIN SHOWERS. MON NGT INTO TUE NGT...SFC
HI PRES WILL BE SLIDING ACRS EXTRM NRN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...WHILE WEAK LO PRES WILL BE MOVING FM THE GULF OF MEXICO
ENE AND OFF THE SE CST. AS A RESULT...SOME DEEPER LO LVL MOISTURE
WILL LIFT NWRD INTO AT LEAST SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. 00Z
GFS/CMC/ECMWF EACH TRENDED NWD WITH THIS SYSTM...SO POPS HAVE BEEN
TRENDED UPWARD TO 30-40% N TO 40-50% S. OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY
WX...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE SLGT CHC OVR NE NC COUNTIES...FOR WED AFTN
THRU THU AS HI PRES BLDS FARTHER S. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE
MID 30S TO LWR 40S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 40S TO
UPR 50S MON AND TUE...AND IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...PCPN IS ENDING OVER SE AREAS WITH SCT FLURRIES STILL
PSBL NEAR THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR ALL LOCATIONS
WITHIN A FEW HRS AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THIS AFTN. GUSTY
NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND WILL
DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING.

OUTLOOK...VFR AND DRY WEATHER ARE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRNT AND ASSOCIATED LO PRES PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE TDA AS
SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. N WINDS REMAIN RATHER STRONG THIS
MORNG...WITH GALE CONDS CONTINUING THRU 7 AM FOR SRN CSTL WTRS AND
THE SOUND...AND SCA ELSEWHERE. WAVES OVER THE BAY WILL BE 3-5
FT...WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS AT 6-10 FT. A HI SURF ADVSRY ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM FOR OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK DUE TO
NEARSHORE WAVES AOA 8 FT. ALL MARINE HEADLINES END DURING THE DAY
TDA AS WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE AS THE HI BLDS IN. SEAS OVER SRN
CSTL WTRS MAY REMAIN AOA 5 FT THRU THIS EVENG. BENIGN MARINE CONDS
EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND WITH THE HI REMAINING IN THE VICINITY
AND SLOWLY SLIDING OFFSHORE. THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM AFFECTS THE
REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PRECIPITATION AND MELTING SNOW WILL CAUSE MANY AREA RIVER LEVELS
WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME REACHING
THREE QUARTERS BANKFULL OR HIGHER. THE JAMES RIVER AT RICHMOND
WESTHAM IS FORECAST TO GO INTO MINOR FLOOD ON SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ102.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ632-
     634.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ633-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630-
     631-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...TMG/AJZ
AVIATION...MAS/LSA
MARINE...MAS/TMG
HYDROLOGY...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 060905 CCA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
405 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD TODAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT WILL BE ONGOING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WHICH WILL REACH CENTRAL OHIO BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WOULD
EXPECT SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...BUT SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING THAT LOW CU WILL DEVELOP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. TEMPS
WILL BE 25 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL HAVE EJECTED TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE TROUGH RUSHES TO
THE EAST COAST.

MODELS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO SHOW A SETUP FOR THE WEEKEND THAT DOES
NOT APPEAR VERY PLEASANT. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF
STRATOCU QUICKLY COVERING THE REGION ON SATURDAY. IF THIS COMES
TO FRUITION...NOT ONLY WILL THERE BE LITTLE TO NO SUNSHINE
SATURDAY BUT TEMPS WILL ALSO BE COLDER THEN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.

A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHES THE BOUNDARY THROUGH. SATURATED LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN
UNDERNEATH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE. HAVE
KEPT POPS CONFINED TO THE NORTH AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANCE TO
MAKE ANY SNOW ELSEWHERE AS THE AIR ABOVE THE STRATOCU LAYER WILL
BE VERY DRY AND SNOW GROWTH ZONES WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE CLOUD
DECK. I THINK THE MAIN FOCUS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO BE ON THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP. ITS A TOUGH CALL AT THIS
POINT...BUT WITH NO ICE FALLING INTO THE SATURATED LOWER LEVELS
AND SNOW GROWTH ZONES SO HIGH...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO
MAKE SNOW. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE FINE TUNED AS
THE MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE ENTIRE SETUP.

IF CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT IS CORRECT...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH
IMPROVEMENT ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN PARKED
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS DOWN AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. CU RULE INDICATES JUST
SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CU FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING THAT FKL AND DUJ COULD GO BROKEN IN THE AFTERNOON
PROMPTING THE INCLUSION OF HIGH MVFR CIGS AT THESE PORTS.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OHIO RIVER AT THE POINT IN
PITTSBURGH...AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR CHARLEROI AND
ELIZABETH ON THE MONONGAHELA RIVER. CRESTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED
AT THESE POINTS...AND LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...2 SET IN 1901.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...12 SET IN 1960...1969...AND
1972.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...5 SET IN 1960.

ALL TIME LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH AT
PITTSBURGH IS -1...SET ON...3/4/1943...3/9/1960...AND 3/2/1980.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 060904
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
404 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD TODAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT WILL BE ONGOING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WHICH WILL REACH CENTRAL OHIO BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WOULD
EXPECT SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...BUT SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING THAT LOW CU WILL DEVELOP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. TEMPS
WILL BE 25 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL HAVE EJECTED TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE TROUGH RUSHES TO
THE EAST COAST.

MODELS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO SHOW A SETUP FOR THE WEEKEND THAT DOES
NOT APPEAR VERY PLEASANT. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF
STRATOCU QUICKLY COVERING THE REGION ON SATURDAY. IF THIS COMES
TO FRUITION...NOT ONLY WILL THERE BE LITTLE TO NO SUNSHINE
SATURDAY BUT TEMPS WILL ALSO BE COLDER THEN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.

A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHES THE BOUNDARY THROUGH. SATURATED LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN
UNDERNEATH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE. HAVE
KEPT POPS CONFINED TO THE NORTH AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANCE TO
MAKE ANY SNOW ELSEWHERE AS THE AIR ABOVE THE STRATOCU LAYER WILL
BE VERY DRY AND SNOW GROWTH ZONES WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE CLOUD
DECK. I THINK THE MAIN FOCUS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO BE ON THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP. ITS A TOUGH CALL AT THIS
POINT...BUT WITH NO ICE FALLING INTO THE SATURATED LOWER LEVELS
AND SNOW GROWTH ZONES SO HIGH...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO
MAKE SNOW. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE FINE TUNED AS
THE MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE ENTIRE SETUP.

IF CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT IS CORRECT...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH
IMPROVEMENT ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN PARKED
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS DOWN AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. CU RULE INDICATES JUST
SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CU FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING THAT FKL AND DUJ COULD GO BROKEN IN THE AFTERNOON
PROMPTING THE INCLUSION OF HIGH MVFR CIGS AT THESE PORTS.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OHIO RIVER AT THE POINT IN
PITTSBURGH...AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR CHARLEROI AND
ELIZABETH ON THE MONONGAHELA RIVER. CRESTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED
AT THESE POINTS...AND LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...2 SET IN 1901.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...12 SET IN 1960...1969...AND
1972.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...5 SET IN 1960.

ALL TIME LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH AT
PITTSBURGH IS -1...SET ON...3/4/1943...3/9/1960...AND 3/2/1980.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 060904
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
404 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD TODAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT WILL BE ONGOING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WHICH WILL REACH CENTRAL OHIO BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WOULD
EXPECT SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...BUT SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING THAT LOW CU WILL DEVELOP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. TEMPS
WILL BE 25 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL HAVE EJECTED TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE TROUGH RUSHES TO
THE EAST COAST.

MODELS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO SHOW A SETUP FOR THE WEEKEND THAT DOES
NOT APPEAR VERY PLEASANT. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF
STRATOCU QUICKLY COVERING THE REGION ON SATURDAY. IF THIS COMES
TO FRUITION...NOT ONLY WILL THERE BE LITTLE TO NO SUNSHINE
SATURDAY BUT TEMPS WILL ALSO BE COLDER THEN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.

A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHES THE BOUNDARY THROUGH. SATURATED LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN
UNDERNEATH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE. HAVE
KEPT POPS CONFINED TO THE NORTH AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANCE TO
MAKE ANY SNOW ELSEWHERE AS THE AIR ABOVE THE STRATOCU LAYER WILL
BE VERY DRY AND SNOW GROWTH ZONES WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE CLOUD
DECK. I THINK THE MAIN FOCUS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO BE ON THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP. ITS A TOUGH CALL AT THIS
POINT...BUT WITH NO ICE FALLING INTO THE SATURATED LOWER LEVELS
AND SNOW GROWTH ZONES SO HIGH...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO
MAKE SNOW. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE FINE TUNED AS
THE MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE ENTIRE SETUP.

IF CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT IS CORRECT...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH
IMPROVEMENT ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN PARKED
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS DOWN AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. CU RULE INDICATES JUST
SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CU FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING THAT FKL AND DUJ COULD GO BROKEN IN THE AFTERNOON
PROMPTING THE INCLUSION OF HIGH MVFR CIGS AT THESE PORTS.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OHIO RIVER AT THE POINT IN
PITTSBURGH...AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR CHARLEROI AND
ELIZABETH ON THE MONONGAHELA RIVER. CRESTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED
AT THESE POINTS...AND LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...2 SET IN 1901.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...12 SET IN 1960...1969...AND
1972.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...5 SET IN 1960.

ALL TIME LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH AT
PITTSBURGH IS -1...SET ON...3/4/1943...3/9/1960...AND 3/2/1980.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KLWX 060850
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
350 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TODAY...THEN SETTLES OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING
OVERHEAD THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS
MORNING. STILL A PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION...ALTHOUGH A FEW
SHELTERED OBS ARE 3 KT OR LESS. THESE TWO FACTORS ARE COMBATING EACH
OTHER IN THE RESULTING WIND CHILLS...AS TEMPS ARE FALLING A LITTLE
MORE SLOWLY THAN FORECAST. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING UNTIL 10
AM AS CRITERIA STILL REMAINS POSSIBLE.

THE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY...RESULTING IN QUIET BUT VERY COLD
CONDITIONS WITH LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH OVERHEAD. HIGHS WILL LIKELY
FALL SHORT OF THE FREEZING MARK EXCEPT IN CENTRAL VA...SOME 20-25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MOISTURE FIELDS INDICATE POSSIBLE
STRATOCU...MAINLY W OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND ADVANCING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS LATE AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

TEMPS WILL FALL AGAIN TONIGHT...AND WITH A WEAKER GRADIENT AND SNOW
PACK...EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. BLENDED IN
ECMWF DATA WITH CURRENT FORECAST WHICH CAPTURES AREAL DISTRIBUTION
WELL. SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND PERHAPS SOME CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MAY LIMIT THE FALL.

WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH TO THE SE BY SATURDAY...RETURN FLOW WILL
HELP TEMPERATURES REBOUND NICELY FROM THE COLD MORNING. HOWEVER
HIGHS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE
DAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
NO LONGER A SIMPLE WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MIDWEEK
AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE SFC HIGH DOES REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE
SERN CONUS. HOWEVER...A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM A LOW OVER THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT AN INCH OF UPSLOPE SNOW WEST FROM THE ALLEGHENY FRONT...WITH
JUST CLOUDS EAST ACROSS THE CWA. WEST FLOW SUNDAY WILL DOWNSLOPE AND
WARM FOR MID TO UPR 40S N AND LOW TO MID 50S S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH SETTLES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS DOWNSTREAM OF A
SRN JET STREAM TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THIS TROUGH WILL PRODUCE
A LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. RAIN FROM THE
PRECIP SHIELD COULD SKIRT THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WENT A LITTLE
ABOVE WPC GUIDANCE WITH 40 POPS TUESDAY FOR SRN MD AND CHANCES FOR
SRN HALF OF CWA AND EAST FROM I-95. SO FAR THIS LOOKS TO BE RAIN.
THOUGH SHOULD PRECIP COME IN EARLIER AND BE FARTHER NORTH...SOME MIX
OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

UPR TROUGH SETS UP OVER NERN CONUS WEDNESDAY...PROGRESSING EAST
THURSDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE WEST WINDS OVER THE AREA...BUT EXPECT
DRY AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE POSSIBLE STRATOCU AT MRB TODAY
WHICH MAY FALL INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY IF THEY BECOME BKN. THINK THIS
IS A SMALL PROB. ALSO A SMALL SUBSET OF GUIDANCE SHOWING POSSIBLE
VSBY REDUCTIONS LATE TONIGHT AS SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS WORK
IN...BUT AM NOT SOLD ON THESE SOLUTIONS YET WITH THE DRY ARCTIC
AIRMASS IN PLACE. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KT TODAY BECOME
LIGHT/VRB BY EVENING...THEN SOUTHERLY SATURDAY AROUND 10 KT.

VFR CONDS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SW FLOW
SATURDAY NIGHT BECOMES WLY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. LIGHT W/NW FLOW
THEN THROUGH MONDAY. LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY AS LOW PASSES
THE CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
OCCASIONAL SCA LEVEL GUSTS CONTINUE ON THE WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING. WILL MONITOR THE NEED FOR POSSIBLE EXTENSION FOR THE
SEGMENTS WHICH EXPIRE AT 6 AM. HOWEVER...ALL GUSTINESS SHOULD
SUBSIDE BY MIDDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BUT APPEAR TO STAY BELOW SCA LEVELS.

LIGHT SWLY FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN LIGHT WLY/NWLY FLOW SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY AS A LOW PASSES THE
CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE JAM APPEARS TO NOT BE BROKEN YET ON CACAPON RIVER NEAR GREAT
CACAPON. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RISES THERE AND ANY OTHER RISES.
ICE JAMS APPEAR TO HAVE BROKEN ON GOOSE CREEK IN LEESBURG.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SNOWFALL DURING METEOROLOGICAL WINTER (DECEMBER 1ST
THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH...OR 29TH IF IT IS A LEAP YEAR) WAS NEAR
NORMAL AT OUR THREE MAIN CLIMATE SITES. HOWEVER...ADDING EARLY
SEASON SNOWFALL FROM NOVEMBER AND THE RECENT SNOWFALL SO FAR IN
MARCH PUSHES THE ANNUAL SNOWFALL TOTALS ABOVE NORMAL.

BELOW IS A TABLE OF NORMAL ANNUAL SNOWFALL (RECORDED FROM JULY 1ST
OF A GIVEN YEAR TO JUNE 30TH OF THE FOLLOWING YEAR TO ENCOMPASS THE
ENTIRE COOL SEASON)...COMPARED TO OBSERVED 2014-15 VALUES THROUGH
MARCH 5TH.

.................NORMAL ANNUAL SNOWFALL (INCHES)....................
................NOV...DEC...JAN...FEB...MAR*..APR...TOTAL...........
WASHINGTON DC...0.5...2.3...5.6...5.7...1.3...0.0...15.4............
BALTIMORE MD....0.4...3.0...6.8...8.0...1.9...0.0...20.1............
DULLES AIRPORT..0.5...3.5...7.3...7.6...2.8...0.3...22.0............
*NORMAL VALUES FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH OF MARCH

...........OBSERVED 2014-15 SNOWFALL (INCHES, THROUGH MARCH 5TH)....
................NOV...DEC...JAN...FEB...MAR*..TOTAL..(DEPARTURE)....
WASHINGTON DC....T.....T....3.6...9.8...4.9...18.3...(+2.9).........
BALTIMORE MD....0.3...0.2...5.9..14.6...6.5...27.5...(+7.4).........
DULLES AIRPORT..1.6....T....8.7..16.1...9.6...36.0...(+14.0)........
*VALUES LISTED ARE TOTALS THROUGH MARCH 5TH...AND ARE ALREADY WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MONTH.

MEANWHILE...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MANY TIMES IN RECENT MONTHS...
RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES ARE IN JEOPARDY AS ANOTHER COLD AIRMASS
PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BELOW IS A LIST
OF RECORD DAILY LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 6TH AND 7TH...AND
RECORD DAILY LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 6TH.

SITE...RECORD MIN 03/06...RECORD LOW MAX 03/06...RECORD MIN 03/07...
DCA.....10 F (1988).........21 F (1901)...........13 F (1890).......
BWI.....13 F (1901/1873)....21 F (1901)...........10 F (1960).......
IAD.....15 F (1978).........32 F (2007)...........14 F (1985).......

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ003>006-011-501>508.
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ025>031-040-501-503>508.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ050>053-055-501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540-541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ530-531-536-538-539-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...BAJ
AVIATION...BAJ/ADS
MARINE...BAJ/ADS
HYDROLOGY...BAJ
CLIMATE...DFH




000
FXUS61 KLWX 060850
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
350 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TODAY...THEN SETTLES OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING
OVERHEAD THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS
MORNING. STILL A PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION...ALTHOUGH A FEW
SHELTERED OBS ARE 3 KT OR LESS. THESE TWO FACTORS ARE COMBATING EACH
OTHER IN THE RESULTING WIND CHILLS...AS TEMPS ARE FALLING A LITTLE
MORE SLOWLY THAN FORECAST. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING UNTIL 10
AM AS CRITERIA STILL REMAINS POSSIBLE.

THE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY...RESULTING IN QUIET BUT VERY COLD
CONDITIONS WITH LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH OVERHEAD. HIGHS WILL LIKELY
FALL SHORT OF THE FREEZING MARK EXCEPT IN CENTRAL VA...SOME 20-25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MOISTURE FIELDS INDICATE POSSIBLE
STRATOCU...MAINLY W OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND ADVANCING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS LATE AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

TEMPS WILL FALL AGAIN TONIGHT...AND WITH A WEAKER GRADIENT AND SNOW
PACK...EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. BLENDED IN
ECMWF DATA WITH CURRENT FORECAST WHICH CAPTURES AREAL DISTRIBUTION
WELL. SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND PERHAPS SOME CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MAY LIMIT THE FALL.

WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH TO THE SE BY SATURDAY...RETURN FLOW WILL
HELP TEMPERATURES REBOUND NICELY FROM THE COLD MORNING. HOWEVER
HIGHS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE
DAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
NO LONGER A SIMPLE WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MIDWEEK
AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE SFC HIGH DOES REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE
SERN CONUS. HOWEVER...A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM A LOW OVER THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT AN INCH OF UPSLOPE SNOW WEST FROM THE ALLEGHENY FRONT...WITH
JUST CLOUDS EAST ACROSS THE CWA. WEST FLOW SUNDAY WILL DOWNSLOPE AND
WARM FOR MID TO UPR 40S N AND LOW TO MID 50S S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH SETTLES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS DOWNSTREAM OF A
SRN JET STREAM TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THIS TROUGH WILL PRODUCE
A LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. RAIN FROM THE
PRECIP SHIELD COULD SKIRT THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WENT A LITTLE
ABOVE WPC GUIDANCE WITH 40 POPS TUESDAY FOR SRN MD AND CHANCES FOR
SRN HALF OF CWA AND EAST FROM I-95. SO FAR THIS LOOKS TO BE RAIN.
THOUGH SHOULD PRECIP COME IN EARLIER AND BE FARTHER NORTH...SOME MIX
OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

UPR TROUGH SETS UP OVER NERN CONUS WEDNESDAY...PROGRESSING EAST
THURSDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE WEST WINDS OVER THE AREA...BUT EXPECT
DRY AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE POSSIBLE STRATOCU AT MRB TODAY
WHICH MAY FALL INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY IF THEY BECOME BKN. THINK THIS
IS A SMALL PROB. ALSO A SMALL SUBSET OF GUIDANCE SHOWING POSSIBLE
VSBY REDUCTIONS LATE TONIGHT AS SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS WORK
IN...BUT AM NOT SOLD ON THESE SOLUTIONS YET WITH THE DRY ARCTIC
AIRMASS IN PLACE. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KT TODAY BECOME
LIGHT/VRB BY EVENING...THEN SOUTHERLY SATURDAY AROUND 10 KT.

VFR CONDS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SW FLOW
SATURDAY NIGHT BECOMES WLY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. LIGHT W/NW FLOW
THEN THROUGH MONDAY. LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY AS LOW PASSES
THE CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
OCCASIONAL SCA LEVEL GUSTS CONTINUE ON THE WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING. WILL MONITOR THE NEED FOR POSSIBLE EXTENSION FOR THE
SEGMENTS WHICH EXPIRE AT 6 AM. HOWEVER...ALL GUSTINESS SHOULD
SUBSIDE BY MIDDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BUT APPEAR TO STAY BELOW SCA LEVELS.

LIGHT SWLY FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN LIGHT WLY/NWLY FLOW SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY AS A LOW PASSES THE
CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE JAM APPEARS TO NOT BE BROKEN YET ON CACAPON RIVER NEAR GREAT
CACAPON. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RISES THERE AND ANY OTHER RISES.
ICE JAMS APPEAR TO HAVE BROKEN ON GOOSE CREEK IN LEESBURG.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SNOWFALL DURING METEOROLOGICAL WINTER (DECEMBER 1ST
THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH...OR 29TH IF IT IS A LEAP YEAR) WAS NEAR
NORMAL AT OUR THREE MAIN CLIMATE SITES. HOWEVER...ADDING EARLY
SEASON SNOWFALL FROM NOVEMBER AND THE RECENT SNOWFALL SO FAR IN
MARCH PUSHES THE ANNUAL SNOWFALL TOTALS ABOVE NORMAL.

BELOW IS A TABLE OF NORMAL ANNUAL SNOWFALL (RECORDED FROM JULY 1ST
OF A GIVEN YEAR TO JUNE 30TH OF THE FOLLOWING YEAR TO ENCOMPASS THE
ENTIRE COOL SEASON)...COMPARED TO OBSERVED 2014-15 VALUES THROUGH
MARCH 5TH.

.................NORMAL ANNUAL SNOWFALL (INCHES)....................
................NOV...DEC...JAN...FEB...MAR*..APR...TOTAL...........
WASHINGTON DC...0.5...2.3...5.6...5.7...1.3...0.0...15.4............
BALTIMORE MD....0.4...3.0...6.8...8.0...1.9...0.0...20.1............
DULLES AIRPORT..0.5...3.5...7.3...7.6...2.8...0.3...22.0............
*NORMAL VALUES FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH OF MARCH

...........OBSERVED 2014-15 SNOWFALL (INCHES, THROUGH MARCH 5TH)....
................NOV...DEC...JAN...FEB...MAR*..TOTAL..(DEPARTURE)....
WASHINGTON DC....T.....T....3.6...9.8...4.9...18.3...(+2.9).........
BALTIMORE MD....0.3...0.2...5.9..14.6...6.5...27.5...(+7.4).........
DULLES AIRPORT..1.6....T....8.7..16.1...9.6...36.0...(+14.0)........
*VALUES LISTED ARE TOTALS THROUGH MARCH 5TH...AND ARE ALREADY WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MONTH.

MEANWHILE...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MANY TIMES IN RECENT MONTHS...
RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES ARE IN JEOPARDY AS ANOTHER COLD AIRMASS
PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BELOW IS A LIST
OF RECORD DAILY LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 6TH AND 7TH...AND
RECORD DAILY LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 6TH.

SITE...RECORD MIN 03/06...RECORD LOW MAX 03/06...RECORD MIN 03/07...
DCA.....10 F (1988).........21 F (1901)...........13 F (1890).......
BWI.....13 F (1901/1873)....21 F (1901)...........10 F (1960).......
IAD.....15 F (1978).........32 F (2007)...........14 F (1985).......

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ003>006-011-501>508.
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ025>031-040-501-503>508.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ050>053-055-501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540-541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ530-531-536-538-539-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...BAJ
AVIATION...BAJ/ADS
MARINE...BAJ/ADS
HYDROLOGY...BAJ
CLIMATE...DFH




000
FXUS61 KLWX 060850
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
350 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TODAY...THEN SETTLES OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING
OVERHEAD THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS
MORNING. STILL A PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION...ALTHOUGH A FEW
SHELTERED OBS ARE 3 KT OR LESS. THESE TWO FACTORS ARE COMBATING EACH
OTHER IN THE RESULTING WIND CHILLS...AS TEMPS ARE FALLING A LITTLE
MORE SLOWLY THAN FORECAST. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING UNTIL 10
AM AS CRITERIA STILL REMAINS POSSIBLE.

THE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY...RESULTING IN QUIET BUT VERY COLD
CONDITIONS WITH LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH OVERHEAD. HIGHS WILL LIKELY
FALL SHORT OF THE FREEZING MARK EXCEPT IN CENTRAL VA...SOME 20-25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MOISTURE FIELDS INDICATE POSSIBLE
STRATOCU...MAINLY W OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND ADVANCING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS LATE AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

TEMPS WILL FALL AGAIN TONIGHT...AND WITH A WEAKER GRADIENT AND SNOW
PACK...EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. BLENDED IN
ECMWF DATA WITH CURRENT FORECAST WHICH CAPTURES AREAL DISTRIBUTION
WELL. SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND PERHAPS SOME CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MAY LIMIT THE FALL.

WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH TO THE SE BY SATURDAY...RETURN FLOW WILL
HELP TEMPERATURES REBOUND NICELY FROM THE COLD MORNING. HOWEVER
HIGHS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE
DAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
NO LONGER A SIMPLE WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MIDWEEK
AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE SFC HIGH DOES REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE
SERN CONUS. HOWEVER...A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM A LOW OVER THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT AN INCH OF UPSLOPE SNOW WEST FROM THE ALLEGHENY FRONT...WITH
JUST CLOUDS EAST ACROSS THE CWA. WEST FLOW SUNDAY WILL DOWNSLOPE AND
WARM FOR MID TO UPR 40S N AND LOW TO MID 50S S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH SETTLES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS DOWNSTREAM OF A
SRN JET STREAM TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THIS TROUGH WILL PRODUCE
A LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. RAIN FROM THE
PRECIP SHIELD COULD SKIRT THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WENT A LITTLE
ABOVE WPC GUIDANCE WITH 40 POPS TUESDAY FOR SRN MD AND CHANCES FOR
SRN HALF OF CWA AND EAST FROM I-95. SO FAR THIS LOOKS TO BE RAIN.
THOUGH SHOULD PRECIP COME IN EARLIER AND BE FARTHER NORTH...SOME MIX
OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

UPR TROUGH SETS UP OVER NERN CONUS WEDNESDAY...PROGRESSING EAST
THURSDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE WEST WINDS OVER THE AREA...BUT EXPECT
DRY AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE POSSIBLE STRATOCU AT MRB TODAY
WHICH MAY FALL INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY IF THEY BECOME BKN. THINK THIS
IS A SMALL PROB. ALSO A SMALL SUBSET OF GUIDANCE SHOWING POSSIBLE
VSBY REDUCTIONS LATE TONIGHT AS SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS WORK
IN...BUT AM NOT SOLD ON THESE SOLUTIONS YET WITH THE DRY ARCTIC
AIRMASS IN PLACE. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KT TODAY BECOME
LIGHT/VRB BY EVENING...THEN SOUTHERLY SATURDAY AROUND 10 KT.

VFR CONDS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SW FLOW
SATURDAY NIGHT BECOMES WLY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. LIGHT W/NW FLOW
THEN THROUGH MONDAY. LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY AS LOW PASSES
THE CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
OCCASIONAL SCA LEVEL GUSTS CONTINUE ON THE WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING. WILL MONITOR THE NEED FOR POSSIBLE EXTENSION FOR THE
SEGMENTS WHICH EXPIRE AT 6 AM. HOWEVER...ALL GUSTINESS SHOULD
SUBSIDE BY MIDDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BUT APPEAR TO STAY BELOW SCA LEVELS.

LIGHT SWLY FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN LIGHT WLY/NWLY FLOW SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY AS A LOW PASSES THE
CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE JAM APPEARS TO NOT BE BROKEN YET ON CACAPON RIVER NEAR GREAT
CACAPON. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RISES THERE AND ANY OTHER RISES.
ICE JAMS APPEAR TO HAVE BROKEN ON GOOSE CREEK IN LEESBURG.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SNOWFALL DURING METEOROLOGICAL WINTER (DECEMBER 1ST
THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH...OR 29TH IF IT IS A LEAP YEAR) WAS NEAR
NORMAL AT OUR THREE MAIN CLIMATE SITES. HOWEVER...ADDING EARLY
SEASON SNOWFALL FROM NOVEMBER AND THE RECENT SNOWFALL SO FAR IN
MARCH PUSHES THE ANNUAL SNOWFALL TOTALS ABOVE NORMAL.

BELOW IS A TABLE OF NORMAL ANNUAL SNOWFALL (RECORDED FROM JULY 1ST
OF A GIVEN YEAR TO JUNE 30TH OF THE FOLLOWING YEAR TO ENCOMPASS THE
ENTIRE COOL SEASON)...COMPARED TO OBSERVED 2014-15 VALUES THROUGH
MARCH 5TH.

.................NORMAL ANNUAL SNOWFALL (INCHES)....................
................NOV...DEC...JAN...FEB...MAR*..APR...TOTAL...........
WASHINGTON DC...0.5...2.3...5.6...5.7...1.3...0.0...15.4............
BALTIMORE MD....0.4...3.0...6.8...8.0...1.9...0.0...20.1............
DULLES AIRPORT..0.5...3.5...7.3...7.6...2.8...0.3...22.0............
*NORMAL VALUES FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH OF MARCH

...........OBSERVED 2014-15 SNOWFALL (INCHES, THROUGH MARCH 5TH)....
................NOV...DEC...JAN...FEB...MAR*..TOTAL..(DEPARTURE)....
WASHINGTON DC....T.....T....3.6...9.8...4.9...18.3...(+2.9).........
BALTIMORE MD....0.3...0.2...5.9..14.6...6.5...27.5...(+7.4).........
DULLES AIRPORT..1.6....T....8.7..16.1...9.6...36.0...(+14.0)........
*VALUES LISTED ARE TOTALS THROUGH MARCH 5TH...AND ARE ALREADY WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MONTH.

MEANWHILE...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MANY TIMES IN RECENT MONTHS...
RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES ARE IN JEOPARDY AS ANOTHER COLD AIRMASS
PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BELOW IS A LIST
OF RECORD DAILY LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 6TH AND 7TH...AND
RECORD DAILY LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 6TH.

SITE...RECORD MIN 03/06...RECORD LOW MAX 03/06...RECORD MIN 03/07...
DCA.....10 F (1988).........21 F (1901)...........13 F (1890).......
BWI.....13 F (1901/1873)....21 F (1901)...........10 F (1960).......
IAD.....15 F (1978).........32 F (2007)...........14 F (1985).......

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ003>006-011-501>508.
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ025>031-040-501-503>508.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ050>053-055-501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540-541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ530-531-536-538-539-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...BAJ
AVIATION...BAJ/ADS
MARINE...BAJ/ADS
HYDROLOGY...BAJ
CLIMATE...DFH




000
FXUS61 KLWX 060850
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
350 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TODAY...THEN SETTLES OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING
OVERHEAD THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS
MORNING. STILL A PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION...ALTHOUGH A FEW
SHELTERED OBS ARE 3 KT OR LESS. THESE TWO FACTORS ARE COMBATING EACH
OTHER IN THE RESULTING WIND CHILLS...AS TEMPS ARE FALLING A LITTLE
MORE SLOWLY THAN FORECAST. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING UNTIL 10
AM AS CRITERIA STILL REMAINS POSSIBLE.

THE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY...RESULTING IN QUIET BUT VERY COLD
CONDITIONS WITH LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH OVERHEAD. HIGHS WILL LIKELY
FALL SHORT OF THE FREEZING MARK EXCEPT IN CENTRAL VA...SOME 20-25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MOISTURE FIELDS INDICATE POSSIBLE
STRATOCU...MAINLY W OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND ADVANCING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS LATE AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

TEMPS WILL FALL AGAIN TONIGHT...AND WITH A WEAKER GRADIENT AND SNOW
PACK...EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. BLENDED IN
ECMWF DATA WITH CURRENT FORECAST WHICH CAPTURES AREAL DISTRIBUTION
WELL. SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND PERHAPS SOME CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MAY LIMIT THE FALL.

WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH TO THE SE BY SATURDAY...RETURN FLOW WILL
HELP TEMPERATURES REBOUND NICELY FROM THE COLD MORNING. HOWEVER
HIGHS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE
DAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
NO LONGER A SIMPLE WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MIDWEEK
AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE SFC HIGH DOES REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE
SERN CONUS. HOWEVER...A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM A LOW OVER THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT AN INCH OF UPSLOPE SNOW WEST FROM THE ALLEGHENY FRONT...WITH
JUST CLOUDS EAST ACROSS THE CWA. WEST FLOW SUNDAY WILL DOWNSLOPE AND
WARM FOR MID TO UPR 40S N AND LOW TO MID 50S S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH SETTLES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS DOWNSTREAM OF A
SRN JET STREAM TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THIS TROUGH WILL PRODUCE
A LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. RAIN FROM THE
PRECIP SHIELD COULD SKIRT THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WENT A LITTLE
ABOVE WPC GUIDANCE WITH 40 POPS TUESDAY FOR SRN MD AND CHANCES FOR
SRN HALF OF CWA AND EAST FROM I-95. SO FAR THIS LOOKS TO BE RAIN.
THOUGH SHOULD PRECIP COME IN EARLIER AND BE FARTHER NORTH...SOME MIX
OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

UPR TROUGH SETS UP OVER NERN CONUS WEDNESDAY...PROGRESSING EAST
THURSDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE WEST WINDS OVER THE AREA...BUT EXPECT
DRY AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE POSSIBLE STRATOCU AT MRB TODAY
WHICH MAY FALL INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY IF THEY BECOME BKN. THINK THIS
IS A SMALL PROB. ALSO A SMALL SUBSET OF GUIDANCE SHOWING POSSIBLE
VSBY REDUCTIONS LATE TONIGHT AS SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS WORK
IN...BUT AM NOT SOLD ON THESE SOLUTIONS YET WITH THE DRY ARCTIC
AIRMASS IN PLACE. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KT TODAY BECOME
LIGHT/VRB BY EVENING...THEN SOUTHERLY SATURDAY AROUND 10 KT.

VFR CONDS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SW FLOW
SATURDAY NIGHT BECOMES WLY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. LIGHT W/NW FLOW
THEN THROUGH MONDAY. LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY AS LOW PASSES
THE CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
OCCASIONAL SCA LEVEL GUSTS CONTINUE ON THE WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING. WILL MONITOR THE NEED FOR POSSIBLE EXTENSION FOR THE
SEGMENTS WHICH EXPIRE AT 6 AM. HOWEVER...ALL GUSTINESS SHOULD
SUBSIDE BY MIDDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BUT APPEAR TO STAY BELOW SCA LEVELS.

LIGHT SWLY FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN LIGHT WLY/NWLY FLOW SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY AS A LOW PASSES THE
CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE JAM APPEARS TO NOT BE BROKEN YET ON CACAPON RIVER NEAR GREAT
CACAPON. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RISES THERE AND ANY OTHER RISES.
ICE JAMS APPEAR TO HAVE BROKEN ON GOOSE CREEK IN LEESBURG.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SNOWFALL DURING METEOROLOGICAL WINTER (DECEMBER 1ST
THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH...OR 29TH IF IT IS A LEAP YEAR) WAS NEAR
NORMAL AT OUR THREE MAIN CLIMATE SITES. HOWEVER...ADDING EARLY
SEASON SNOWFALL FROM NOVEMBER AND THE RECENT SNOWFALL SO FAR IN
MARCH PUSHES THE ANNUAL SNOWFALL TOTALS ABOVE NORMAL.

BELOW IS A TABLE OF NORMAL ANNUAL SNOWFALL (RECORDED FROM JULY 1ST
OF A GIVEN YEAR TO JUNE 30TH OF THE FOLLOWING YEAR TO ENCOMPASS THE
ENTIRE COOL SEASON)...COMPARED TO OBSERVED 2014-15 VALUES THROUGH
MARCH 5TH.

.................NORMAL ANNUAL SNOWFALL (INCHES)....................
................NOV...DEC...JAN...FEB...MAR*..APR...TOTAL...........
WASHINGTON DC...0.5...2.3...5.6...5.7...1.3...0.0...15.4............
BALTIMORE MD....0.4...3.0...6.8...8.0...1.9...0.0...20.1............
DULLES AIRPORT..0.5...3.5...7.3...7.6...2.8...0.3...22.0............
*NORMAL VALUES FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH OF MARCH

...........OBSERVED 2014-15 SNOWFALL (INCHES, THROUGH MARCH 5TH)....
................NOV...DEC...JAN...FEB...MAR*..TOTAL..(DEPARTURE)....
WASHINGTON DC....T.....T....3.6...9.8...4.9...18.3...(+2.9).........
BALTIMORE MD....0.3...0.2...5.9..14.6...6.5...27.5...(+7.4).........
DULLES AIRPORT..1.6....T....8.7..16.1...9.6...36.0...(+14.0)........
*VALUES LISTED ARE TOTALS THROUGH MARCH 5TH...AND ARE ALREADY WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MONTH.

MEANWHILE...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MANY TIMES IN RECENT MONTHS...
RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES ARE IN JEOPARDY AS ANOTHER COLD AIRMASS
PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BELOW IS A LIST
OF RECORD DAILY LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 6TH AND 7TH...AND
RECORD DAILY LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 6TH.

SITE...RECORD MIN 03/06...RECORD LOW MAX 03/06...RECORD MIN 03/07...
DCA.....10 F (1988).........21 F (1901)...........13 F (1890).......
BWI.....13 F (1901/1873)....21 F (1901)...........10 F (1960).......
IAD.....15 F (1978).........32 F (2007)...........14 F (1985).......

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ003>006-011-501>508.
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ025>031-040-501-503>508.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ050>053-055-501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540-541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ530-531-536-538-539-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...BAJ
AVIATION...BAJ/ADS
MARINE...BAJ/ADS
HYDROLOGY...BAJ
CLIMATE...DFH




000
FXUS61 KPHI 060843
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
343 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AND THEN SINK SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTH LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
SHOULD PASS ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
PREDICTED TO FORM ON THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST TUESDAY AND THEN MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE. A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FAIR WEATHER AND COLD TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. SKIES WILL BE CLR THIS MORNING...AND THEN
THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH LOW/MID 20S NORTH AND MID 20S
TO LOW 30S OVER METRO PHILADELPHIA AND OVER THE DELMARVA. WINDS WILL
BE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS MORNING AND THEN BECOME
WEST OR SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH BY DUSK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN THU NIGHT AND WITH THE AMPLE
SNOW COVER ACROSS THE REGION...LOW TEMPERATURES COULD BE AS COLD (OR
PERHAPS COLDER) THAN THU NIGHTS READINGS. PRESENTLY WE HAVE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH TEENS ALONG THE SHORE AND 12 FOR PHL.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 500MB INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER OFF THE WRF VS THE GFS, OVERALL
THEY WERE SPLIT AT 850MB AND BOTH ABOUT 1C TOO COLD AT 925MB ON
AVERAGE. AFTER HAVING THREE WINTRY PCPN EVENTS IN THE FIRST FIVE DAYS
OF MARCH, THE LONG TERM REMAINS RELATIVELY MORE SUBDUED WITH A MUCH
ANTICIPATED RETURN (EVEN IF ITS JUST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS) OF NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE ONE CHANGE TONIGHT VS LAST NIGHT IS THE
INCREASING CHANCE THAT A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MIGHT BRING SOME RAIN
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

THE MODERATING TREND WILL START ON SATURDAY AFTER A COLD COLD COLD
MORNING. MID LEVEL WAA ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHOULD BRING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO OUR CWA, ESPECIALLY
NORTH. IN SPITE OF THIS, WE WENT TOWARD THE HIGHER SET OF STAT
GUIDANCE. TODAY (FRIDAY) WILL BE A GOOD LITMUS TEST IF STAT
GUIDANCE COLD BIAS IN SPITE OF AMPLE SNOW COVER CONTINUES. AS FAR
AS SNOW SHOWERS, THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH OF A CHANGE TO THE
GEOGRAPHICAL EXTENT OF MEASURABLE PCPN REACHING DEEPER INTO OUR
CWA. ONLY CHANGE WE MADE, WAS TO START THE LOW CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS FAR NORTH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SHOULD PASS THROUGH
OUR CWA ON SATURDAY NIGHT. NOT MUCH DEEP MOISTURE TO GENERATE
SHOWERS. LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WAS KEPT FAR NORTH. MODELS ARE
INDICATING MORE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS (POSSIBLY TRAPPED UNDER AN
INVERSION NORTH) AROUND AND THIS IS REASON FOR MUCH HIGHER MINS.

ON SUNDAY, SOME WEAK PVA AND A JET STREAK ARE PREDICTED TO PASS
ACROSS OUR CWA, LEANING NORTH. STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL IF WE HAVE
THE GEOGRAPHY STRAIGHT, THE JET STREAK ITSELF LOOKS MORE CERTAIN. WE
PUT IN A CHANCE OF FLURRIES NORTH AS A PROXY. WHILE SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST LACK OF ICE COULD BE A PROBLEM (ESPECIALLY ON THE MOISTURE
TRAPPED NAM SOUNDINGS), WESTERLY WINDS ARE NORMALLY NOT A FREEZING
DRIZZLE DIRECTION IN OUR AREA. WHILE COLDER AIR (RELATIVE TO
SATURDAY) IS PREDICTED TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA, IT WARMS BEYOND
SATURDAY AT 925MB. THUS REASON FOR BUMP UP IN MAX TEMPS.

A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. BY
THEN AIR MASS IS EVEN SLIGHTLY WARMER AND WE EXPECT THE SNOW COVER
TO BE LOSING ITS EFFECTIVENESS ON SLOWING THE RISE OF MAX TEMPS.

CHANGE THEN COMES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND MORE SO TUESDAY AS ALL THE
RUNS HAVE TRENDED NORTH WITH A LOW FORMING OFF THE OLD STALLED
FRONT. UNLESS PCPN FLIES IN ON MONDAY NIGHT, THERMALLY IT LOOKS WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN, ESPECIALLY GIVEN SOUTH IS FAVORED OVER NORTH.
FASTER TIMING COUPLED WITH A MORE NORTHERN EXTENSION MIGHT BE
PROBLEMATIC FOR PTYPE. IN ITS WAKE, AN EVEN MILDER DAY IS
PREDICTED FOR WEDNESDAY BEFORE A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BRINGS COLDER AIR BACK INTO OUR CWA POSSIBLY AS SOON AS THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLR THIS MORNING AND
THEN SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHERLY OR NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS EARLY TODAY THEN GO LIGHT
WEST/SOUTHWEST TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR OVERALL.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SOME MVFR CONDITIONS DUE MAINLY
TO CIGS AS A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES BY LATER SATURDAY. HOWEVER,
ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE
TERMINALS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...VFR OVERALL.

TUESDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND
TERMINALS. PTYPE SHOULD BE RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SCA FLAG FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AND SRN DEL
BAY FOR THE MORNING. WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST 25 TO 30 KTS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH A FEW 30 TO 35 KNT GUSTS AT THE (HIGHER) BRND1
PLATFORM. WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH  LATER THIS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVERHEAD. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT ON THE OCEAN THIS
MORNING...DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHC FOR FREEZING
SPRAY TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THE WINDS
WILL INCREASE SOME FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING SATURDAY.
THERE IS A CHC FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY SATURDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WE ARE ANTICIPATING SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

TUESDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
PENDING THE PROXIMITY OF THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PREDICTED TO FORM OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH A SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING WE HAVE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909


SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

IT APPEARS THAT READING AND ATLANTIC CITY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF GETTING TO THEIR RECORD LOW SATURDAY MORNING.
RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

RER`S POSTED FOR KILG AND KACY...BOTH 7.0 INCHES.

PHL HAD 7.5 AND ALLENTOWN 6.7.

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

FWIW...WATER EQUIVALENCE OF TOTAL SNOW DEPTH IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PA IS NOW WELL OVER 3 INCHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/GORSE
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/GORSE/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/GORSE/O`HARA
CLIMATE...DRAG



000
FXUS61 KPHI 060843
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
343 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AND THEN SINK SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTH LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
SHOULD PASS ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
PREDICTED TO FORM ON THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST TUESDAY AND THEN MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE. A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FAIR WEATHER AND COLD TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. SKIES WILL BE CLR THIS MORNING...AND THEN
THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH LOW/MID 20S NORTH AND MID 20S
TO LOW 30S OVER METRO PHILADELPHIA AND OVER THE DELMARVA. WINDS WILL
BE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS MORNING AND THEN BECOME
WEST OR SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH BY DUSK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN THU NIGHT AND WITH THE AMPLE
SNOW COVER ACROSS THE REGION...LOW TEMPERATURES COULD BE AS COLD (OR
PERHAPS COLDER) THAN THU NIGHTS READINGS. PRESENTLY WE HAVE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH TEENS ALONG THE SHORE AND 12 FOR PHL.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 500MB INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER OFF THE WRF VS THE GFS, OVERALL
THEY WERE SPLIT AT 850MB AND BOTH ABOUT 1C TOO COLD AT 925MB ON
AVERAGE. AFTER HAVING THREE WINTRY PCPN EVENTS IN THE FIRST FIVE DAYS
OF MARCH, THE LONG TERM REMAINS RELATIVELY MORE SUBDUED WITH A MUCH
ANTICIPATED RETURN (EVEN IF ITS JUST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS) OF NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE ONE CHANGE TONIGHT VS LAST NIGHT IS THE
INCREASING CHANCE THAT A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MIGHT BRING SOME RAIN
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

THE MODERATING TREND WILL START ON SATURDAY AFTER A COLD COLD COLD
MORNING. MID LEVEL WAA ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHOULD BRING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO OUR CWA, ESPECIALLY
NORTH. IN SPITE OF THIS, WE WENT TOWARD THE HIGHER SET OF STAT
GUIDANCE. TODAY (FRIDAY) WILL BE A GOOD LITMUS TEST IF STAT
GUIDANCE COLD BIAS IN SPITE OF AMPLE SNOW COVER CONTINUES. AS FAR
AS SNOW SHOWERS, THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH OF A CHANGE TO THE
GEOGRAPHICAL EXTENT OF MEASURABLE PCPN REACHING DEEPER INTO OUR
CWA. ONLY CHANGE WE MADE, WAS TO START THE LOW CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS FAR NORTH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SHOULD PASS THROUGH
OUR CWA ON SATURDAY NIGHT. NOT MUCH DEEP MOISTURE TO GENERATE
SHOWERS. LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WAS KEPT FAR NORTH. MODELS ARE
INDICATING MORE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS (POSSIBLY TRAPPED UNDER AN
INVERSION NORTH) AROUND AND THIS IS REASON FOR MUCH HIGHER MINS.

ON SUNDAY, SOME WEAK PVA AND A JET STREAK ARE PREDICTED TO PASS
ACROSS OUR CWA, LEANING NORTH. STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL IF WE HAVE
THE GEOGRAPHY STRAIGHT, THE JET STREAK ITSELF LOOKS MORE CERTAIN. WE
PUT IN A CHANCE OF FLURRIES NORTH AS A PROXY. WHILE SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST LACK OF ICE COULD BE A PROBLEM (ESPECIALLY ON THE MOISTURE
TRAPPED NAM SOUNDINGS), WESTERLY WINDS ARE NORMALLY NOT A FREEZING
DRIZZLE DIRECTION IN OUR AREA. WHILE COLDER AIR (RELATIVE TO
SATURDAY) IS PREDICTED TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA, IT WARMS BEYOND
SATURDAY AT 925MB. THUS REASON FOR BUMP UP IN MAX TEMPS.

A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. BY
THEN AIR MASS IS EVEN SLIGHTLY WARMER AND WE EXPECT THE SNOW COVER
TO BE LOSING ITS EFFECTIVENESS ON SLOWING THE RISE OF MAX TEMPS.

CHANGE THEN COMES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND MORE SO TUESDAY AS ALL THE
RUNS HAVE TRENDED NORTH WITH A LOW FORMING OFF THE OLD STALLED
FRONT. UNLESS PCPN FLIES IN ON MONDAY NIGHT, THERMALLY IT LOOKS WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN, ESPECIALLY GIVEN SOUTH IS FAVORED OVER NORTH.
FASTER TIMING COUPLED WITH A MORE NORTHERN EXTENSION MIGHT BE
PROBLEMATIC FOR PTYPE. IN ITS WAKE, AN EVEN MILDER DAY IS
PREDICTED FOR WEDNESDAY BEFORE A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BRINGS COLDER AIR BACK INTO OUR CWA POSSIBLY AS SOON AS THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLR THIS MORNING AND
THEN SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHERLY OR NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS EARLY TODAY THEN GO LIGHT
WEST/SOUTHWEST TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR OVERALL.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SOME MVFR CONDITIONS DUE MAINLY
TO CIGS AS A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES BY LATER SATURDAY. HOWEVER,
ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE
TERMINALS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...VFR OVERALL.

TUESDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND
TERMINALS. PTYPE SHOULD BE RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SCA FLAG FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AND SRN DEL
BAY FOR THE MORNING. WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST 25 TO 30 KTS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH A FEW 30 TO 35 KNT GUSTS AT THE (HIGHER) BRND1
PLATFORM. WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH  LATER THIS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVERHEAD. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT ON THE OCEAN THIS
MORNING...DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHC FOR FREEZING
SPRAY TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THE WINDS
WILL INCREASE SOME FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING SATURDAY.
THERE IS A CHC FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY SATURDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WE ARE ANTICIPATING SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

TUESDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
PENDING THE PROXIMITY OF THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PREDICTED TO FORM OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH A SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING WE HAVE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909


SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

IT APPEARS THAT READING AND ATLANTIC CITY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF GETTING TO THEIR RECORD LOW SATURDAY MORNING.
RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

RER`S POSTED FOR KILG AND KACY...BOTH 7.0 INCHES.

PHL HAD 7.5 AND ALLENTOWN 6.7.

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

FWIW...WATER EQUIVALENCE OF TOTAL SNOW DEPTH IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PA IS NOW WELL OVER 3 INCHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/GORSE
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/GORSE/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/GORSE/O`HARA
CLIMATE...DRAG




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 060550
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1250 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...USHERING IN MARKEDLY COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
GRADUALLY MODERATING...MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE
IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
JUST ABOUT ALL THE SNOW IS OVER EXEPT FOR SERN VA / NERN NC WHERE
LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET CONTINUE LATE THIS EVENING. LITTLE OR NO
ADDNTL ACCUMLS ARE EXPECTED BUT DID KEEP THE WINTER WX ADVSRY
GOING ACROSS THOSE AREAS FOR A FEW MORE HRS. ONLY SCT FLURRIES
REMAIN ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA SO WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE
WARNINGS AND ADVSRYS WITH THE LATER EVENING UPDATE.

CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOR PLUMMENTING TEMPS AND REFREEZING
OF THE SNOW / SLUSH ON THE GROUND. THUS...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A
SPS FOR BLACK ICE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SKIES CLRG NW-SE AFTER 06Z. THIS ALONG
WITH CAA AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC HIGH RESULTS IN TMPS DROPPING TO RECORD
LOW TERRITORY (10 TO 20 DEGREES). WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

SEE LATEST PNSAKQ / LSRAKQ FOR SNOW / ICE TOTALS FROM TODAYS STORM.

RECORD LOWS FOR 3/6:
 RIC...15 IN 1960
 ORF...20 IN 1901
 SBY...13 IN 1968
 ECG...20 IN 1960

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE/FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

COLD/DRY AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE LOCAL AREA FRI AS 1030+MB ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. CAA WANES...BUT
NOT BEFORE H85 TEMPS LEVEL OFF BTWN -4 AND -8C. GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE HIGHS IN THE 25-30 DEG RANGE...BUT THICKNESSES YIELD
TEMPS IN THE MID 30S. HAVE KEPT WITH PERSISTENCE OF GOING ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. UPPER 20S
INTERIOR MD ERN SHORE. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN
THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR W TO
PARTLY CLOUDY E. NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION FRI
NIGHT...RESULTING IN LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED COASTAL BOUNDARY
FRI NIGHT...BUT REMAINING OFFSHORE THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. COLD FRI NIGHT WITH WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS.

ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE
SE STATES. SWLY RETURN FLOW COMMENCES SAT...RESULTING IN MODERATING
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND TEMPS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO REBOUND NICELY
SAT...WARMING INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S
COASTAL AREAS. SKIES AVG MOSTLY CLEAR. NOT AS COLD SAT NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. WARMER SUN WITH HIGHS NEAR
NORMAL...MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S COASTAL AREAS. COLD SAT
MORNING WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/CMC/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND THESE MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR. MORE OF A SPLIT/ZONAL
PATTERN WILL AFFECT THE CNTRL/ERN U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD
RESULTING IN NEAR OR SLGTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACRS THE FCST AREA.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACRS THE REGION SUN NGT INTO MON MORNG
POSSIBLY TRIGGERING ISLTD RAIN SHOWERS. MON NGT INTO TUE NGT...SFC
HI PRES WILL BE SLIDING ACRS EXTRM NRN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...WHILE WEAK LO PRES WILL BE MOVING FM THE GULF OF MEXICO
ENE AND OFF THE SE CST. AS A RESULT...SOME DEEPER LO LVL MOISTURE
WILL LIFT NWRD INTO AT LEAST SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...SO HAVE
SLGT (15-20%) TO SML CHC (30%) POPS FOR NOW. MAINLY DRY WX...EXCEPT
FOR MAYBE SLGT CHC OVR NE NC COUNTIES...FOR WED AFTN THRU THU AS
HI PRES BLDS FARTHER S. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 30S TO
LWR 40S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 40S TO UPR 50S MON
AND TUE...AND IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...PCPN IS ENDING OVER SE AREAS WITH SCT FLURRIES STILL
PSBL NEAR THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR ALL LOCATIONS
WITHIN A FEW HRS AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THIS AFTN. GUSTY
NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND WILL
DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING.

OUTLOOK...VFR AND DRY WEATHER ARE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST UPDATED TO UPGRADE THE LWR BAY AND SOUND TO A GALE WARNG
THRU ERLY THIS MORNG WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KT EXPECTED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATE THIS AFTN...ONE LO PRES AREA WAS OFF THE VA/NC CST WHILE A
SECOND LO PRES SYSTEM WAS ALONG THE SC CST. THESE LOWS WILL MOVE
NE ALNG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OUT TO SEA TNGT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNG. SCA`S AND GALE WARNGS REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO FRI MORNG OR
THRU FRI AFTN...DUE TO STRONG N WINDS. WAVES OVER THE CHES BAY
WILL BLD TO 3-5 FT...WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS BLDNG TO 6-11 FT.
CALMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI NGT THRU SUN...AS HI PRES BLDS OVR
THE AREA THEN SLIDES OFFSHR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PRECIPITATION AND MELTING SNOW WILL CAUSE MANY AREA RIVER LEVELS
WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME REACHING
THREE QUARTERS BANKFULL OR HIGHER. THE JAMES RIVER AT RICHMOND
WESTHAM IS FORECAST TO GO INTO MINOR FLOOD ON SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ102.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ635>637.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ632>634-656-
     658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630-
     631-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...MAS/LSA
MARINE...MAS/TMG
HYDROLOGY...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 060550
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1250 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...USHERING IN MARKEDLY COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
GRADUALLY MODERATING...MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE
IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
JUST ABOUT ALL THE SNOW IS OVER EXEPT FOR SERN VA / NERN NC WHERE
LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET CONTINUE LATE THIS EVENING. LITTLE OR NO
ADDNTL ACCUMLS ARE EXPECTED BUT DID KEEP THE WINTER WX ADVSRY
GOING ACROSS THOSE AREAS FOR A FEW MORE HRS. ONLY SCT FLURRIES
REMAIN ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA SO WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE
WARNINGS AND ADVSRYS WITH THE LATER EVENING UPDATE.

CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOR PLUMMENTING TEMPS AND REFREEZING
OF THE SNOW / SLUSH ON THE GROUND. THUS...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A
SPS FOR BLACK ICE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SKIES CLRG NW-SE AFTER 06Z. THIS ALONG
WITH CAA AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC HIGH RESULTS IN TMPS DROPPING TO RECORD
LOW TERRITORY (10 TO 20 DEGREES). WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

SEE LATEST PNSAKQ / LSRAKQ FOR SNOW / ICE TOTALS FROM TODAYS STORM.

RECORD LOWS FOR 3/6:
 RIC...15 IN 1960
 ORF...20 IN 1901
 SBY...13 IN 1968
 ECG...20 IN 1960

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE/FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

COLD/DRY AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE LOCAL AREA FRI AS 1030+MB ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. CAA WANES...BUT
NOT BEFORE H85 TEMPS LEVEL OFF BTWN -4 AND -8C. GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE HIGHS IN THE 25-30 DEG RANGE...BUT THICKNESSES YIELD
TEMPS IN THE MID 30S. HAVE KEPT WITH PERSISTENCE OF GOING ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. UPPER 20S
INTERIOR MD ERN SHORE. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN
THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR W TO
PARTLY CLOUDY E. NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION FRI
NIGHT...RESULTING IN LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED COASTAL BOUNDARY
FRI NIGHT...BUT REMAINING OFFSHORE THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. COLD FRI NIGHT WITH WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS.

ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE
SE STATES. SWLY RETURN FLOW COMMENCES SAT...RESULTING IN MODERATING
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND TEMPS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO REBOUND NICELY
SAT...WARMING INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S
COASTAL AREAS. SKIES AVG MOSTLY CLEAR. NOT AS COLD SAT NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. WARMER SUN WITH HIGHS NEAR
NORMAL...MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S COASTAL AREAS. COLD SAT
MORNING WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/CMC/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND THESE MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR. MORE OF A SPLIT/ZONAL
PATTERN WILL AFFECT THE CNTRL/ERN U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD
RESULTING IN NEAR OR SLGTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACRS THE FCST AREA.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACRS THE REGION SUN NGT INTO MON MORNG
POSSIBLY TRIGGERING ISLTD RAIN SHOWERS. MON NGT INTO TUE NGT...SFC
HI PRES WILL BE SLIDING ACRS EXTRM NRN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...WHILE WEAK LO PRES WILL BE MOVING FM THE GULF OF MEXICO
ENE AND OFF THE SE CST. AS A RESULT...SOME DEEPER LO LVL MOISTURE
WILL LIFT NWRD INTO AT LEAST SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...SO HAVE
SLGT (15-20%) TO SML CHC (30%) POPS FOR NOW. MAINLY DRY WX...EXCEPT
FOR MAYBE SLGT CHC OVR NE NC COUNTIES...FOR WED AFTN THRU THU AS
HI PRES BLDS FARTHER S. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 30S TO
LWR 40S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 40S TO UPR 50S MON
AND TUE...AND IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...PCPN IS ENDING OVER SE AREAS WITH SCT FLURRIES STILL
PSBL NEAR THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR ALL LOCATIONS
WITHIN A FEW HRS AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THIS AFTN. GUSTY
NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND WILL
DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING.

OUTLOOK...VFR AND DRY WEATHER ARE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST UPDATED TO UPGRADE THE LWR BAY AND SOUND TO A GALE WARNG
THRU ERLY THIS MORNG WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KT EXPECTED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATE THIS AFTN...ONE LO PRES AREA WAS OFF THE VA/NC CST WHILE A
SECOND LO PRES SYSTEM WAS ALONG THE SC CST. THESE LOWS WILL MOVE
NE ALNG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OUT TO SEA TNGT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNG. SCA`S AND GALE WARNGS REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO FRI MORNG OR
THRU FRI AFTN...DUE TO STRONG N WINDS. WAVES OVER THE CHES BAY
WILL BLD TO 3-5 FT...WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS BLDNG TO 6-11 FT.
CALMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI NGT THRU SUN...AS HI PRES BLDS OVR
THE AREA THEN SLIDES OFFSHR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PRECIPITATION AND MELTING SNOW WILL CAUSE MANY AREA RIVER LEVELS
WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME REACHING
THREE QUARTERS BANKFULL OR HIGHER. THE JAMES RIVER AT RICHMOND
WESTHAM IS FORECAST TO GO INTO MINOR FLOOD ON SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ102.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ635>637.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ632>634-656-
     658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630-
     631-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...MAS/LSA
MARINE...MAS/TMG
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 060550
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1250 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...USHERING IN MARKEDLY COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
GRADUALLY MODERATING...MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE
IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
JUST ABOUT ALL THE SNOW IS OVER EXEPT FOR SERN VA / NERN NC WHERE
LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET CONTINUE LATE THIS EVENING. LITTLE OR NO
ADDNTL ACCUMLS ARE EXPECTED BUT DID KEEP THE WINTER WX ADVSRY
GOING ACROSS THOSE AREAS FOR A FEW MORE HRS. ONLY SCT FLURRIES
REMAIN ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA SO WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE
WARNINGS AND ADVSRYS WITH THE LATER EVENING UPDATE.

CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOR PLUMMENTING TEMPS AND REFREEZING
OF THE SNOW / SLUSH ON THE GROUND. THUS...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A
SPS FOR BLACK ICE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SKIES CLRG NW-SE AFTER 06Z. THIS ALONG
WITH CAA AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC HIGH RESULTS IN TMPS DROPPING TO RECORD
LOW TERRITORY (10 TO 20 DEGREES). WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

SEE LATEST PNSAKQ / LSRAKQ FOR SNOW / ICE TOTALS FROM TODAYS STORM.

RECORD LOWS FOR 3/6:
 RIC...15 IN 1960
 ORF...20 IN 1901
 SBY...13 IN 1968
 ECG...20 IN 1960

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE/FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

COLD/DRY AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE LOCAL AREA FRI AS 1030+MB ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. CAA WANES...BUT
NOT BEFORE H85 TEMPS LEVEL OFF BTWN -4 AND -8C. GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE HIGHS IN THE 25-30 DEG RANGE...BUT THICKNESSES YIELD
TEMPS IN THE MID 30S. HAVE KEPT WITH PERSISTENCE OF GOING ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. UPPER 20S
INTERIOR MD ERN SHORE. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN
THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR W TO
PARTLY CLOUDY E. NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION FRI
NIGHT...RESULTING IN LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED COASTAL BOUNDARY
FRI NIGHT...BUT REMAINING OFFSHORE THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. COLD FRI NIGHT WITH WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS.

ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE
SE STATES. SWLY RETURN FLOW COMMENCES SAT...RESULTING IN MODERATING
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND TEMPS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO REBOUND NICELY
SAT...WARMING INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S
COASTAL AREAS. SKIES AVG MOSTLY CLEAR. NOT AS COLD SAT NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. WARMER SUN WITH HIGHS NEAR
NORMAL...MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S COASTAL AREAS. COLD SAT
MORNING WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/CMC/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND THESE MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR. MORE OF A SPLIT/ZONAL
PATTERN WILL AFFECT THE CNTRL/ERN U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD
RESULTING IN NEAR OR SLGTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACRS THE FCST AREA.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACRS THE REGION SUN NGT INTO MON MORNG
POSSIBLY TRIGGERING ISLTD RAIN SHOWERS. MON NGT INTO TUE NGT...SFC
HI PRES WILL BE SLIDING ACRS EXTRM NRN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...WHILE WEAK LO PRES WILL BE MOVING FM THE GULF OF MEXICO
ENE AND OFF THE SE CST. AS A RESULT...SOME DEEPER LO LVL MOISTURE
WILL LIFT NWRD INTO AT LEAST SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...SO HAVE
SLGT (15-20%) TO SML CHC (30%) POPS FOR NOW. MAINLY DRY WX...EXCEPT
FOR MAYBE SLGT CHC OVR NE NC COUNTIES...FOR WED AFTN THRU THU AS
HI PRES BLDS FARTHER S. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 30S TO
LWR 40S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 40S TO UPR 50S MON
AND TUE...AND IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...PCPN IS ENDING OVER SE AREAS WITH SCT FLURRIES STILL
PSBL NEAR THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR ALL LOCATIONS
WITHIN A FEW HRS AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THIS AFTN. GUSTY
NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND WILL
DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING.

OUTLOOK...VFR AND DRY WEATHER ARE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST UPDATED TO UPGRADE THE LWR BAY AND SOUND TO A GALE WARNG
THRU ERLY THIS MORNG WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KT EXPECTED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATE THIS AFTN...ONE LO PRES AREA WAS OFF THE VA/NC CST WHILE A
SECOND LO PRES SYSTEM WAS ALONG THE SC CST. THESE LOWS WILL MOVE
NE ALNG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OUT TO SEA TNGT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNG. SCA`S AND GALE WARNGS REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO FRI MORNG OR
THRU FRI AFTN...DUE TO STRONG N WINDS. WAVES OVER THE CHES BAY
WILL BLD TO 3-5 FT...WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS BLDNG TO 6-11 FT.
CALMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI NGT THRU SUN...AS HI PRES BLDS OVR
THE AREA THEN SLIDES OFFSHR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PRECIPITATION AND MELTING SNOW WILL CAUSE MANY AREA RIVER LEVELS
WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME REACHING
THREE QUARTERS BANKFULL OR HIGHER. THE JAMES RIVER AT RICHMOND
WESTHAM IS FORECAST TO GO INTO MINOR FLOOD ON SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ102.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ635>637.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ632>634-656-
     658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630-
     631-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...MAS/LSA
MARINE...MAS/TMG
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 060550
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1250 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...USHERING IN MARKEDLY COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
GRADUALLY MODERATING...MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE
IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
JUST ABOUT ALL THE SNOW IS OVER EXEPT FOR SERN VA / NERN NC WHERE
LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET CONTINUE LATE THIS EVENING. LITTLE OR NO
ADDNTL ACCUMLS ARE EXPECTED BUT DID KEEP THE WINTER WX ADVSRY
GOING ACROSS THOSE AREAS FOR A FEW MORE HRS. ONLY SCT FLURRIES
REMAIN ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA SO WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE
WARNINGS AND ADVSRYS WITH THE LATER EVENING UPDATE.

CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOR PLUMMENTING TEMPS AND REFREEZING
OF THE SNOW / SLUSH ON THE GROUND. THUS...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A
SPS FOR BLACK ICE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SKIES CLRG NW-SE AFTER 06Z. THIS ALONG
WITH CAA AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC HIGH RESULTS IN TMPS DROPPING TO RECORD
LOW TERRITORY (10 TO 20 DEGREES). WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

SEE LATEST PNSAKQ / LSRAKQ FOR SNOW / ICE TOTALS FROM TODAYS STORM.

RECORD LOWS FOR 3/6:
 RIC...15 IN 1960
 ORF...20 IN 1901
 SBY...13 IN 1968
 ECG...20 IN 1960

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE/FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

COLD/DRY AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE LOCAL AREA FRI AS 1030+MB ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. CAA WANES...BUT
NOT BEFORE H85 TEMPS LEVEL OFF BTWN -4 AND -8C. GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE HIGHS IN THE 25-30 DEG RANGE...BUT THICKNESSES YIELD
TEMPS IN THE MID 30S. HAVE KEPT WITH PERSISTENCE OF GOING ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. UPPER 20S
INTERIOR MD ERN SHORE. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN
THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR W TO
PARTLY CLOUDY E. NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION FRI
NIGHT...RESULTING IN LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED COASTAL BOUNDARY
FRI NIGHT...BUT REMAINING OFFSHORE THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. COLD FRI NIGHT WITH WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS.

ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE
SE STATES. SWLY RETURN FLOW COMMENCES SAT...RESULTING IN MODERATING
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND TEMPS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO REBOUND NICELY
SAT...WARMING INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S
COASTAL AREAS. SKIES AVG MOSTLY CLEAR. NOT AS COLD SAT NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. WARMER SUN WITH HIGHS NEAR
NORMAL...MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S COASTAL AREAS. COLD SAT
MORNING WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/CMC/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND THESE MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR. MORE OF A SPLIT/ZONAL
PATTERN WILL AFFECT THE CNTRL/ERN U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD
RESULTING IN NEAR OR SLGTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACRS THE FCST AREA.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACRS THE REGION SUN NGT INTO MON MORNG
POSSIBLY TRIGGERING ISLTD RAIN SHOWERS. MON NGT INTO TUE NGT...SFC
HI PRES WILL BE SLIDING ACRS EXTRM NRN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...WHILE WEAK LO PRES WILL BE MOVING FM THE GULF OF MEXICO
ENE AND OFF THE SE CST. AS A RESULT...SOME DEEPER LO LVL MOISTURE
WILL LIFT NWRD INTO AT LEAST SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...SO HAVE
SLGT (15-20%) TO SML CHC (30%) POPS FOR NOW. MAINLY DRY WX...EXCEPT
FOR MAYBE SLGT CHC OVR NE NC COUNTIES...FOR WED AFTN THRU THU AS
HI PRES BLDS FARTHER S. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 30S TO
LWR 40S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 40S TO UPR 50S MON
AND TUE...AND IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...PCPN IS ENDING OVER SE AREAS WITH SCT FLURRIES STILL
PSBL NEAR THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR ALL LOCATIONS
WITHIN A FEW HRS AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THIS AFTN. GUSTY
NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND WILL
DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING.

OUTLOOK...VFR AND DRY WEATHER ARE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST UPDATED TO UPGRADE THE LWR BAY AND SOUND TO A GALE WARNG
THRU ERLY THIS MORNG WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KT EXPECTED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATE THIS AFTN...ONE LO PRES AREA WAS OFF THE VA/NC CST WHILE A
SECOND LO PRES SYSTEM WAS ALONG THE SC CST. THESE LOWS WILL MOVE
NE ALNG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OUT TO SEA TNGT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNG. SCA`S AND GALE WARNGS REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO FRI MORNG OR
THRU FRI AFTN...DUE TO STRONG N WINDS. WAVES OVER THE CHES BAY
WILL BLD TO 3-5 FT...WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS BLDNG TO 6-11 FT.
CALMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI NGT THRU SUN...AS HI PRES BLDS OVR
THE AREA THEN SLIDES OFFSHR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PRECIPITATION AND MELTING SNOW WILL CAUSE MANY AREA RIVER LEVELS
WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME REACHING
THREE QUARTERS BANKFULL OR HIGHER. THE JAMES RIVER AT RICHMOND
WESTHAM IS FORECAST TO GO INTO MINOR FLOOD ON SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ102.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ635>637.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ632>634-656-
     658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630-
     631-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...MAS/LSA
MARINE...MAS/TMG
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 060550
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1250 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...USHERING IN MARKEDLY COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
GRADUALLY MODERATING...MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE
IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
JUST ABOUT ALL THE SNOW IS OVER EXEPT FOR SERN VA / NERN NC WHERE
LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET CONTINUE LATE THIS EVENING. LITTLE OR NO
ADDNTL ACCUMLS ARE EXPECTED BUT DID KEEP THE WINTER WX ADVSRY
GOING ACROSS THOSE AREAS FOR A FEW MORE HRS. ONLY SCT FLURRIES
REMAIN ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA SO WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE
WARNINGS AND ADVSRYS WITH THE LATER EVENING UPDATE.

CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOR PLUMMENTING TEMPS AND REFREEZING
OF THE SNOW / SLUSH ON THE GROUND. THUS...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A
SPS FOR BLACK ICE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SKIES CLRG NW-SE AFTER 06Z. THIS ALONG
WITH CAA AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC HIGH RESULTS IN TMPS DROPPING TO RECORD
LOW TERRITORY (10 TO 20 DEGREES). WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

SEE LATEST PNSAKQ / LSRAKQ FOR SNOW / ICE TOTALS FROM TODAYS STORM.

RECORD LOWS FOR 3/6:
 RIC...15 IN 1960
 ORF...20 IN 1901
 SBY...13 IN 1968
 ECG...20 IN 1960

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE/FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

COLD/DRY AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE LOCAL AREA FRI AS 1030+MB ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. CAA WANES...BUT
NOT BEFORE H85 TEMPS LEVEL OFF BTWN -4 AND -8C. GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE HIGHS IN THE 25-30 DEG RANGE...BUT THICKNESSES YIELD
TEMPS IN THE MID 30S. HAVE KEPT WITH PERSISTENCE OF GOING ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. UPPER 20S
INTERIOR MD ERN SHORE. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN
THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR W TO
PARTLY CLOUDY E. NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION FRI
NIGHT...RESULTING IN LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED COASTAL BOUNDARY
FRI NIGHT...BUT REMAINING OFFSHORE THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. COLD FRI NIGHT WITH WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS.

ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE
SE STATES. SWLY RETURN FLOW COMMENCES SAT...RESULTING IN MODERATING
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND TEMPS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO REBOUND NICELY
SAT...WARMING INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S
COASTAL AREAS. SKIES AVG MOSTLY CLEAR. NOT AS COLD SAT NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. WARMER SUN WITH HIGHS NEAR
NORMAL...MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S COASTAL AREAS. COLD SAT
MORNING WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/CMC/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND THESE MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR. MORE OF A SPLIT/ZONAL
PATTERN WILL AFFECT THE CNTRL/ERN U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD
RESULTING IN NEAR OR SLGTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACRS THE FCST AREA.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACRS THE REGION SUN NGT INTO MON MORNG
POSSIBLY TRIGGERING ISLTD RAIN SHOWERS. MON NGT INTO TUE NGT...SFC
HI PRES WILL BE SLIDING ACRS EXTRM NRN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...WHILE WEAK LO PRES WILL BE MOVING FM THE GULF OF MEXICO
ENE AND OFF THE SE CST. AS A RESULT...SOME DEEPER LO LVL MOISTURE
WILL LIFT NWRD INTO AT LEAST SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...SO HAVE
SLGT (15-20%) TO SML CHC (30%) POPS FOR NOW. MAINLY DRY WX...EXCEPT
FOR MAYBE SLGT CHC OVR NE NC COUNTIES...FOR WED AFTN THRU THU AS
HI PRES BLDS FARTHER S. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 30S TO
LWR 40S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 40S TO UPR 50S MON
AND TUE...AND IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...PCPN IS ENDING OVER SE AREAS WITH SCT FLURRIES STILL
PSBL NEAR THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR ALL LOCATIONS
WITHIN A FEW HRS AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THIS AFTN. GUSTY
NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND WILL
DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING.

OUTLOOK...VFR AND DRY WEATHER ARE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST UPDATED TO UPGRADE THE LWR BAY AND SOUND TO A GALE WARNG
THRU ERLY THIS MORNG WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KT EXPECTED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATE THIS AFTN...ONE LO PRES AREA WAS OFF THE VA/NC CST WHILE A
SECOND LO PRES SYSTEM WAS ALONG THE SC CST. THESE LOWS WILL MOVE
NE ALNG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OUT TO SEA TNGT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNG. SCA`S AND GALE WARNGS REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO FRI MORNG OR
THRU FRI AFTN...DUE TO STRONG N WINDS. WAVES OVER THE CHES BAY
WILL BLD TO 3-5 FT...WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS BLDNG TO 6-11 FT.
CALMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI NGT THRU SUN...AS HI PRES BLDS OVR
THE AREA THEN SLIDES OFFSHR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PRECIPITATION AND MELTING SNOW WILL CAUSE MANY AREA RIVER LEVELS
WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME REACHING
THREE QUARTERS BANKFULL OR HIGHER. THE JAMES RIVER AT RICHMOND
WESTHAM IS FORECAST TO GO INTO MINOR FLOOD ON SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ102.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ635>637.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ632>634-656-
     658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630-
     631-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...MAS/LSA
MARINE...MAS/TMG
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 060550
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1250 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...USHERING IN MARKEDLY COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
GRADUALLY MODERATING...MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE
IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
JUST ABOUT ALL THE SNOW IS OVER EXEPT FOR SERN VA / NERN NC WHERE
LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET CONTINUE LATE THIS EVENING. LITTLE OR NO
ADDNTL ACCUMLS ARE EXPECTED BUT DID KEEP THE WINTER WX ADVSRY
GOING ACROSS THOSE AREAS FOR A FEW MORE HRS. ONLY SCT FLURRIES
REMAIN ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA SO WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE
WARNINGS AND ADVSRYS WITH THE LATER EVENING UPDATE.

CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOR PLUMMENTING TEMPS AND REFREEZING
OF THE SNOW / SLUSH ON THE GROUND. THUS...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A
SPS FOR BLACK ICE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SKIES CLRG NW-SE AFTER 06Z. THIS ALONG
WITH CAA AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC HIGH RESULTS IN TMPS DROPPING TO RECORD
LOW TERRITORY (10 TO 20 DEGREES). WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

SEE LATEST PNSAKQ / LSRAKQ FOR SNOW / ICE TOTALS FROM TODAYS STORM.

RECORD LOWS FOR 3/6:
 RIC...15 IN 1960
 ORF...20 IN 1901
 SBY...13 IN 1968
 ECG...20 IN 1960

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE/FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

COLD/DRY AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE LOCAL AREA FRI AS 1030+MB ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. CAA WANES...BUT
NOT BEFORE H85 TEMPS LEVEL OFF BTWN -4 AND -8C. GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE HIGHS IN THE 25-30 DEG RANGE...BUT THICKNESSES YIELD
TEMPS IN THE MID 30S. HAVE KEPT WITH PERSISTENCE OF GOING ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. UPPER 20S
INTERIOR MD ERN SHORE. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN
THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR W TO
PARTLY CLOUDY E. NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION FRI
NIGHT...RESULTING IN LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED COASTAL BOUNDARY
FRI NIGHT...BUT REMAINING OFFSHORE THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. COLD FRI NIGHT WITH WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS.

ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE
SE STATES. SWLY RETURN FLOW COMMENCES SAT...RESULTING IN MODERATING
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND TEMPS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO REBOUND NICELY
SAT...WARMING INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S
COASTAL AREAS. SKIES AVG MOSTLY CLEAR. NOT AS COLD SAT NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. WARMER SUN WITH HIGHS NEAR
NORMAL...MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S COASTAL AREAS. COLD SAT
MORNING WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/CMC/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND THESE MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR. MORE OF A SPLIT/ZONAL
PATTERN WILL AFFECT THE CNTRL/ERN U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD
RESULTING IN NEAR OR SLGTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACRS THE FCST AREA.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACRS THE REGION SUN NGT INTO MON MORNG
POSSIBLY TRIGGERING ISLTD RAIN SHOWERS. MON NGT INTO TUE NGT...SFC
HI PRES WILL BE SLIDING ACRS EXTRM NRN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...WHILE WEAK LO PRES WILL BE MOVING FM THE GULF OF MEXICO
ENE AND OFF THE SE CST. AS A RESULT...SOME DEEPER LO LVL MOISTURE
WILL LIFT NWRD INTO AT LEAST SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...SO HAVE
SLGT (15-20%) TO SML CHC (30%) POPS FOR NOW. MAINLY DRY WX...EXCEPT
FOR MAYBE SLGT CHC OVR NE NC COUNTIES...FOR WED AFTN THRU THU AS
HI PRES BLDS FARTHER S. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 30S TO
LWR 40S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 40S TO UPR 50S MON
AND TUE...AND IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...PCPN IS ENDING OVER SE AREAS WITH SCT FLURRIES STILL
PSBL NEAR THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR ALL LOCATIONS
WITHIN A FEW HRS AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THIS AFTN. GUSTY
NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND WILL
DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING.

OUTLOOK...VFR AND DRY WEATHER ARE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST UPDATED TO UPGRADE THE LWR BAY AND SOUND TO A GALE WARNG
THRU ERLY THIS MORNG WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KT EXPECTED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATE THIS AFTN...ONE LO PRES AREA WAS OFF THE VA/NC CST WHILE A
SECOND LO PRES SYSTEM WAS ALONG THE SC CST. THESE LOWS WILL MOVE
NE ALNG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OUT TO SEA TNGT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNG. SCA`S AND GALE WARNGS REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO FRI MORNG OR
THRU FRI AFTN...DUE TO STRONG N WINDS. WAVES OVER THE CHES BAY
WILL BLD TO 3-5 FT...WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS BLDNG TO 6-11 FT.
CALMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI NGT THRU SUN...AS HI PRES BLDS OVR
THE AREA THEN SLIDES OFFSHR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PRECIPITATION AND MELTING SNOW WILL CAUSE MANY AREA RIVER LEVELS
WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME REACHING
THREE QUARTERS BANKFULL OR HIGHER. THE JAMES RIVER AT RICHMOND
WESTHAM IS FORECAST TO GO INTO MINOR FLOOD ON SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ102.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ635>637.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ632>634-656-
     658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630-
     631-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...MAS/LSA
MARINE...MAS/TMG
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 060522 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1222 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
CLOUD COVER. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY AS WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED AND ARE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE...SKIES ARE CLEAR AND THERE IS A LARGE SNOW
PACK. WILL NEED TO WATCH TO SEE HOW FAR SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALL
OVERNIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD TODAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT WILL BE ONGOING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WHICH WILL REACH CENTRAL OHIO BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
WOULD EXPECT SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...BUT SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING THAT LOW CU WILL DEVELOP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. TEMPS
WILL BE 25 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL HAVE EJECTED TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE TROUGH RUSHES TO
THE EAST COAST.

MODELS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO SHOW A SETUP FOR THE WEEKEND THAT DOES
NOT APPEAR VERY PLEASANT. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF
STRATOCU QUICKLY COVERING THE REGION ON SATURDAY. IF THIS COMES
TO FRUITION...NOT ONLY WILL THERE BE LITTLE TO NO SUNSHINE
SATURDAY BUT TEMPS WILL ALSO BE COLDER THEN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.

A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHES THE BOUNDARY THROUGH. SATURATED LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN
UNDERNEATH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE. HAVE
KEPT POPS CONFINED TO THE NORTH AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANCE TO
MAKE ANY SNOW ELSEWHERE AS THE AIR ABOVE THE STRATOCU LAYER WILL
BE VERY DRY AND SNOW GROWTH ZONES WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE CLOUD
DECK. I THINK THE MAIN FOCUS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO BE ON THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP. ITS A TOUGH CALL AT THIS
POINT...BUT WITH NO ICE FALLING INTO THE SATURATED LOWER LEVELS
AND SNOW GROWTH ZONES SO HIGH...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO
MAKE SNOW. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE FINE TUNED AS
THE MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE ENTIRE SETUP.

IF CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT IS CORRECT...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH
IMPROVEMENT ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN PARKED
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS DOWN AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. CU RULE INDICATES JUST
SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CU FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING THAT FKL AND DUJ COULD GO BROKEN IN THE AFTERNOON
PROMPTING THE INCLUSION OF HIGH MVFR CIGS AT THESE PORTS.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OHIO RIVER AT THE POINT IN
PITTSBURGH...AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR CHARLEROI AND
ELIZABETH ON THE MONONGAHELA RIVER. CRESTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED
AT THESE POINTS...AND LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...2 SET IN 1901.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...12 SET IN 1960...1969...AND
1972.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...5 SET IN 1960.

ALL TIME LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH AT
PITTSBURGH IS -1...SET ON...3/4/1943...3/9/1960...AND 3/2/1980.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 060522 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1222 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
CLOUD COVER. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY AS WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED AND ARE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE...SKIES ARE CLEAR AND THERE IS A LARGE SNOW
PACK. WILL NEED TO WATCH TO SEE HOW FAR SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALL
OVERNIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD TODAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT WILL BE ONGOING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WHICH WILL REACH CENTRAL OHIO BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
WOULD EXPECT SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...BUT SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING THAT LOW CU WILL DEVELOP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. TEMPS
WILL BE 25 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL HAVE EJECTED TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE TROUGH RUSHES TO
THE EAST COAST.

MODELS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO SHOW A SETUP FOR THE WEEKEND THAT DOES
NOT APPEAR VERY PLEASANT. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF
STRATOCU QUICKLY COVERING THE REGION ON SATURDAY. IF THIS COMES
TO FRUITION...NOT ONLY WILL THERE BE LITTLE TO NO SUNSHINE
SATURDAY BUT TEMPS WILL ALSO BE COLDER THEN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.

A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHES THE BOUNDARY THROUGH. SATURATED LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN
UNDERNEATH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE. HAVE
KEPT POPS CONFINED TO THE NORTH AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANCE TO
MAKE ANY SNOW ELSEWHERE AS THE AIR ABOVE THE STRATOCU LAYER WILL
BE VERY DRY AND SNOW GROWTH ZONES WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE CLOUD
DECK. I THINK THE MAIN FOCUS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO BE ON THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP. ITS A TOUGH CALL AT THIS
POINT...BUT WITH NO ICE FALLING INTO THE SATURATED LOWER LEVELS
AND SNOW GROWTH ZONES SO HIGH...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO
MAKE SNOW. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE FINE TUNED AS
THE MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE ENTIRE SETUP.

IF CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT IS CORRECT...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH
IMPROVEMENT ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN PARKED
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS DOWN AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. CU RULE INDICATES JUST
SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CU FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING THAT FKL AND DUJ COULD GO BROKEN IN THE AFTERNOON
PROMPTING THE INCLUSION OF HIGH MVFR CIGS AT THESE PORTS.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OHIO RIVER AT THE POINT IN
PITTSBURGH...AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR CHARLEROI AND
ELIZABETH ON THE MONONGAHELA RIVER. CRESTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED
AT THESE POINTS...AND LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...2 SET IN 1901.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...12 SET IN 1960...1969...AND
1972.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...5 SET IN 1960.

ALL TIME LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH AT
PITTSBURGH IS -1...SET ON...3/4/1943...3/9/1960...AND 3/2/1980.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 060522 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1222 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
CLOUD COVER. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY AS WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED AND ARE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE...SKIES ARE CLEAR AND THERE IS A LARGE SNOW
PACK. WILL NEED TO WATCH TO SEE HOW FAR SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALL
OVERNIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD TODAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT WILL BE ONGOING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WHICH WILL REACH CENTRAL OHIO BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
WOULD EXPECT SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...BUT SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING THAT LOW CU WILL DEVELOP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. TEMPS
WILL BE 25 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL HAVE EJECTED TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE TROUGH RUSHES TO
THE EAST COAST.

MODELS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO SHOW A SETUP FOR THE WEEKEND THAT DOES
NOT APPEAR VERY PLEASANT. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF
STRATOCU QUICKLY COVERING THE REGION ON SATURDAY. IF THIS COMES
TO FRUITION...NOT ONLY WILL THERE BE LITTLE TO NO SUNSHINE
SATURDAY BUT TEMPS WILL ALSO BE COLDER THEN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.

A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHES THE BOUNDARY THROUGH. SATURATED LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN
UNDERNEATH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE. HAVE
KEPT POPS CONFINED TO THE NORTH AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANCE TO
MAKE ANY SNOW ELSEWHERE AS THE AIR ABOVE THE STRATOCU LAYER WILL
BE VERY DRY AND SNOW GROWTH ZONES WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE CLOUD
DECK. I THINK THE MAIN FOCUS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO BE ON THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP. ITS A TOUGH CALL AT THIS
POINT...BUT WITH NO ICE FALLING INTO THE SATURATED LOWER LEVELS
AND SNOW GROWTH ZONES SO HIGH...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO
MAKE SNOW. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE FINE TUNED AS
THE MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE ENTIRE SETUP.

IF CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT IS CORRECT...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH
IMPROVEMENT ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN PARKED
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS DOWN AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. CU RULE INDICATES JUST
SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CU FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING THAT FKL AND DUJ COULD GO BROKEN IN THE AFTERNOON
PROMPTING THE INCLUSION OF HIGH MVFR CIGS AT THESE PORTS.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OHIO RIVER AT THE POINT IN
PITTSBURGH...AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR CHARLEROI AND
ELIZABETH ON THE MONONGAHELA RIVER. CRESTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED
AT THESE POINTS...AND LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...2 SET IN 1901.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...12 SET IN 1960...1969...AND
1972.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW TODAY MARCH 6...5 SET IN 1960.

ALL TIME LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH AT
PITTSBURGH IS -1...SET ON...3/4/1943...3/9/1960...AND 3/2/1980.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 060324
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1024 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...USHERING IN MARKEDLY COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
GRADUALLY MODERATING...MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE
IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
JUST ABOUT ALL THE SNOW IS OVER EXEPT FOR SERN VA / NERN NC WHERE
LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET CONTINUE LATE THIS EVENING. LITTLE OR NO
ADDNTL ACCUMLS ARE EXPECTED BUT DID KEEP THE WINTER WX ADVSRY
GOING ACROSS THOSE AREAS FOR A FEW MORE HRS. ONLY SCT FLURRIES
REMAIN ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA SO WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE
WARNINGS AND ADVSRYS WITH THE LATER EVENING UPDATE.

CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOR PLUMMENTING TEMPS AND REFREEZING
OF THE SNOW / SLUSH ON THE GROUND. THUS...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A
SPS FOR BLACK ICE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SKIES CLRG NW-SE AFTER 06Z. THIS ALONG
WITH CAA AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC HIGH RESULTS IN TMPS DROPPING TO RECORD
LOW TERRITORY (10 TO 20 DEGREES). WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

SEE LATEST PNSAKQ / LSRAKQ FOR SNOW / ICE TOTALS FROM TODAYS STORM.

RECORD LOWS FOR 3/20:
 RIC...15 IN 1960
 ORF...20 IN 1901
 SBY...13 IN 1968
 ECG...20 IN 1960


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE/FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

COLD/DRY AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE LOCAL AREA FRI AS 1030+MB ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. CAA WANES...BUT
NOT BEFORE H85 TEMPS LEVEL OFF BTWN -4 AND -8C. GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE HIGHS IN THE 25-30 DEG RANGE...BUT THICKNESSES YIELD
TEMPS IN THE MID 30S. HAVE KEPT WITH PERSISTENCE OF GOING ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. UPPER 20S
INTERIOR MD ERN SHORE. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN
THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR W TO
PARTLY CLOUDY E. NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION FRI
NIGHT...RESULTING IN LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED COASTAL BOUNDARY
FRI NIGHT...BUT REMAINING OFFSHORE THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. COLD FRI NIGHT WITH WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS.

ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE
SE STATES. SWLY RETURN FLOW COMMENCES SAT...RESULTING IN MODERATING
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND TEMPS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO REBOUND NICELY
SAT...WARMING INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S
COASTAL AREAS. SKIES AVG MOSTLY CLEAR. NOT AS COLD SAT NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. WARMER SUN WITH HIGHS NEAR
NORMAL...MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S COASTAL AREAS. COLD SAT
MORNING WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/CMC/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND THESE MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR. MORE OF A SPLIT/ZONAL
PATTERN WILL AFFECT THE CNTRL/ERN U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD
RESULTING IN NEAR OR SLGTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACRS THE FCST AREA.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACRS THE REGION SUN NGT INTO MON MORNG
POSSIBLY TRIGGERING ISLTD RAIN SHOWERS. MON NGT INTO TUE NGT...SFC
HI PRES WILL BE SLIDING ACRS EXTRM NRN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...WHILE WEAK LO PRES WILL BE MOVING FM THE GULF OF MEXICO
ENE AND OFF THE SE CST. AS A RESULT...SOME DEEPER LO LVL MOISTURE
WILL LIFT NWRD INTO AT LEAST SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...SO HAVE
SLGT (15-20%) TO SML CHC (30%) POPS FOR NOW. MAINLY DRY WX...EXCEPT
FOR MAYBE SLGT CHC OVR NE NC COUNTIES...FOR WED AFTN THRU THU AS
HI PRES BLDS FARTHER S. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 30S TO
LWR 40S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 40S TO UPR 50S MON
AND TUE...AND IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 02Z...PCPN IS NEARLY OVER WITH A FEW ROUNDS OF FLURRIES PSBL
TIL MIDNIGHT MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE VFR ALL
LOCATIONS BY THAT TIME AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTN.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY AND
WILL DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING.

OUTLOOK...VFR AND DRY WEATHER ARE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATE THIS AFTN...ONE LO PRES AREA WAS OFF THE VA/NC CST WHILE A
SECOND LO PRES SYSTEM WAS ALONG THE SC CST. THESE LOWS WILL MOVE
NE ALNG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OUT TO SEA TNGT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNG. SCA`S AND GALE WARNGS REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO FRI MORNG OR
THRU FRI AFTN...DUE TO STRONG N WINDS. WAVES OVER THE CHES BAY
WILL BLD TO 3-5 FT...WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS BLDNG TO 6-11 FT.
CALMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI NGT THRU SUN...AS HI PRES BLDS OVR
THE AREA THEN SLIDES OFFSHR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PRECIPITATION AND MELTING SNOW WILL CAUSE MANY AREA RIVER LEVELS
WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME REACHING
THREE QUARTERS BANKFULL OR HIGHER. THE JAMES RIVER AT RICHMOND
WESTHAM IS FORECAST TO GO INTO MINOR FLOOD ON SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ013>017-
     030>032-102.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ095>098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ632>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630-631-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...TMG
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 060324
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1024 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...USHERING IN MARKEDLY COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
GRADUALLY MODERATING...MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE
IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
JUST ABOUT ALL THE SNOW IS OVER EXEPT FOR SERN VA / NERN NC WHERE
LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET CONTINUE LATE THIS EVENING. LITTLE OR NO
ADDNTL ACCUMLS ARE EXPECTED BUT DID KEEP THE WINTER WX ADVSRY
GOING ACROSS THOSE AREAS FOR A FEW MORE HRS. ONLY SCT FLURRIES
REMAIN ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA SO WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE
WARNINGS AND ADVSRYS WITH THE LATER EVENING UPDATE.

CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOR PLUMMENTING TEMPS AND REFREEZING
OF THE SNOW / SLUSH ON THE GROUND. THUS...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A
SPS FOR BLACK ICE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SKIES CLRG NW-SE AFTER 06Z. THIS ALONG
WITH CAA AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC HIGH RESULTS IN TMPS DROPPING TO RECORD
LOW TERRITORY (10 TO 20 DEGREES). WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

SEE LATEST PNSAKQ / LSRAKQ FOR SNOW / ICE TOTALS FROM TODAYS STORM.

RECORD LOWS FOR 3/20:
 RIC...15 IN 1960
 ORF...20 IN 1901
 SBY...13 IN 1968
 ECG...20 IN 1960


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE/FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

COLD/DRY AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE LOCAL AREA FRI AS 1030+MB ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. CAA WANES...BUT
NOT BEFORE H85 TEMPS LEVEL OFF BTWN -4 AND -8C. GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE HIGHS IN THE 25-30 DEG RANGE...BUT THICKNESSES YIELD
TEMPS IN THE MID 30S. HAVE KEPT WITH PERSISTENCE OF GOING ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. UPPER 20S
INTERIOR MD ERN SHORE. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN
THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR W TO
PARTLY CLOUDY E. NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION FRI
NIGHT...RESULTING IN LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED COASTAL BOUNDARY
FRI NIGHT...BUT REMAINING OFFSHORE THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. COLD FRI NIGHT WITH WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS.

ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE
SE STATES. SWLY RETURN FLOW COMMENCES SAT...RESULTING IN MODERATING
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND TEMPS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO REBOUND NICELY
SAT...WARMING INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S
COASTAL AREAS. SKIES AVG MOSTLY CLEAR. NOT AS COLD SAT NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. WARMER SUN WITH HIGHS NEAR
NORMAL...MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S COASTAL AREAS. COLD SAT
MORNING WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/CMC/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND THESE MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR. MORE OF A SPLIT/ZONAL
PATTERN WILL AFFECT THE CNTRL/ERN U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD
RESULTING IN NEAR OR SLGTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACRS THE FCST AREA.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACRS THE REGION SUN NGT INTO MON MORNG
POSSIBLY TRIGGERING ISLTD RAIN SHOWERS. MON NGT INTO TUE NGT...SFC
HI PRES WILL BE SLIDING ACRS EXTRM NRN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...WHILE WEAK LO PRES WILL BE MOVING FM THE GULF OF MEXICO
ENE AND OFF THE SE CST. AS A RESULT...SOME DEEPER LO LVL MOISTURE
WILL LIFT NWRD INTO AT LEAST SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...SO HAVE
SLGT (15-20%) TO SML CHC (30%) POPS FOR NOW. MAINLY DRY WX...EXCEPT
FOR MAYBE SLGT CHC OVR NE NC COUNTIES...FOR WED AFTN THRU THU AS
HI PRES BLDS FARTHER S. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 30S TO
LWR 40S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 40S TO UPR 50S MON
AND TUE...AND IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 02Z...PCPN IS NEARLY OVER WITH A FEW ROUNDS OF FLURRIES PSBL
TIL MIDNIGHT MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE VFR ALL
LOCATIONS BY THAT TIME AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTN.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY AND
WILL DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING.

OUTLOOK...VFR AND DRY WEATHER ARE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATE THIS AFTN...ONE LO PRES AREA WAS OFF THE VA/NC CST WHILE A
SECOND LO PRES SYSTEM WAS ALONG THE SC CST. THESE LOWS WILL MOVE
NE ALNG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OUT TO SEA TNGT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNG. SCA`S AND GALE WARNGS REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO FRI MORNG OR
THRU FRI AFTN...DUE TO STRONG N WINDS. WAVES OVER THE CHES BAY
WILL BLD TO 3-5 FT...WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS BLDNG TO 6-11 FT.
CALMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI NGT THRU SUN...AS HI PRES BLDS OVR
THE AREA THEN SLIDES OFFSHR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PRECIPITATION AND MELTING SNOW WILL CAUSE MANY AREA RIVER LEVELS
WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME REACHING
THREE QUARTERS BANKFULL OR HIGHER. THE JAMES RIVER AT RICHMOND
WESTHAM IS FORECAST TO GO INTO MINOR FLOOD ON SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ013>017-
     030>032-102.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ095>098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ632>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630-631-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...TMG
HYDROLOGY...






000
FXUS61 KLWX 060311
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1011 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING TO THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME LIGHT RETURNS REMAINING ON RADAR LATE THIS EVENING. SOME
LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...BUT NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH CLEARING
SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
MUCH OF THE NIGHT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE WEST AND THE OFFSHORE
LOW. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE AT LEAST A LIGHT NW WIND. LOW TEMPS STILL
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER MOST OF THE
CWA...WITH SOME ZERO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO LOWS OVER THE
HIGHLANDS. WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE
BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON NWRN SUBURBS TO THE BLUE RIDGE AND POINTS
WESTWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIPRES BLDS INTO CWFA FRIDAY. NRN STREAM S/WV ENERGY WL OVERRIDE
RDG...WHICH WL ERASE THE SUNNY START TO THE DAY. XPCT MOCLDY TO
PREVAIL DURING THE AFTN-EVE HRS.

THE THERMAL TROF WL BE CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE DAY. AS A
RESULT...FRI WL BE A COOLER DAY W/ MAXT IN THE MID-UPR 20S AND
MIN-T 10-15F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WHILE SOME WARMING BEGINS
SATURDAY...SNOW COVER WILL LIKELY TEMPER THIS TREND INITIALLY. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S NORTH AND
50S SOUTH.

LIGHT LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND
CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. RAISED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SUNDAY WILL FINALLY BE ABOVE FREEZING...EXCEPT IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WHERE UPPER 20S WILL BE MORE COMMON. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS REMAINING AOA FREEZING THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALSO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL. KEPT TUESDAY A LITTLE
COOLER THAN THE REST OF THE WEEK DUE TO POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER FROM
APPROACHING SYSTEM. STILL UNCLEAR IF THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT OUR
AREA OR SKIRT TO OUR SOUTH...FOR NOW LEFT SCHC POPS IN OUR FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
TERMINALS. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE WATERS WITH GUSTS MAINLY
20-25KTS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW. HV SCA CONDS FOR ALL WATERS
TNGT...AND ADJUSTED CONTINUATION INTO FRI MRNG FOR THE BAY. WINDS
MAY DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR A WHILE LATE TONIGHT. SCA REMAINS
IN EFFECT FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN MARINE ZONES...WHERE
GUSTS SHOULD REDEVELOP FOR AT LEAST A WHILE IN THE MORNING BEFORE
SUBSIDING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE WEEKEND...SO NOT EXPECTING
ANY MARINE CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ICE-INDUCED STREAM RISES HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. MANY OF THE STREAMS HAVE NOW CRESTED AND
ARE FALLING. IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT THERE IS AN ICE JAM ON THE
LOST/CACAPON RIVER IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA ABOVE GREAT CACAPON THAT
HAS NOT YET BROKEN...BUT WITH COLD AIR NOW BACK IN PLACE...IT MAY
NOT UNTIL TEMPERATURES WARM AGAIN...KEEPING RISES GRADUAL FOR NOW.

ALSO APPEARS THERE MAY BE SOME SORT OF ICE EFFECT ON GOOSE CREEK
BETWEEN EVERGREEN MILLS AND LANSDOWNE. THE CURRENT STAGE/FLOW AT THE
EVERGREEN MILLS GAUGE IS HIGHER THAN WOULD BE EXPECTED BASED ON
UPSTREAM SITES...AND STILL RISING. STILL A FEW FEET BELOW FLOOD
STAGE AT THIS TIME.

SINCE THERE ARE NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EVENTS EXPECTED FOR
AT LEAST A WEEK...THE MELT OF THE NEWLY-FALLEN SNOW SHOULD BE
GRADUAL. SO THE FLOOD THREAT FROM THAT SHOULD BE MINIMAL BUT WILL
BE MONITORED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ003>006-
     501>507.
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ025>031-040-
     501-503>508.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ050>053-055-
     501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540-541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530-531-535-
     536-538-539-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...KCS/HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...BJL/KCS/MSE
MARINE...MSE/HTS
HYDROLOGY...



000
FXUS61 KLWX 060311
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1011 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING TO THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME LIGHT RETURNS REMAINING ON RADAR LATE THIS EVENING. SOME
LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...BUT NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH CLEARING
SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
MUCH OF THE NIGHT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE WEST AND THE OFFSHORE
LOW. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE AT LEAST A LIGHT NW WIND. LOW TEMPS STILL
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER MOST OF THE
CWA...WITH SOME ZERO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO LOWS OVER THE
HIGHLANDS. WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE
BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON NWRN SUBURBS TO THE BLUE RIDGE AND POINTS
WESTWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIPRES BLDS INTO CWFA FRIDAY. NRN STREAM S/WV ENERGY WL OVERRIDE
RDG...WHICH WL ERASE THE SUNNY START TO THE DAY. XPCT MOCLDY TO
PREVAIL DURING THE AFTN-EVE HRS.

THE THERMAL TROF WL BE CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE DAY. AS A
RESULT...FRI WL BE A COOLER DAY W/ MAXT IN THE MID-UPR 20S AND
MIN-T 10-15F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WHILE SOME WARMING BEGINS
SATURDAY...SNOW COVER WILL LIKELY TEMPER THIS TREND INITIALLY. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S NORTH AND
50S SOUTH.

LIGHT LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND
CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. RAISED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SUNDAY WILL FINALLY BE ABOVE FREEZING...EXCEPT IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WHERE UPPER 20S WILL BE MORE COMMON. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS REMAINING AOA FREEZING THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALSO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL. KEPT TUESDAY A LITTLE
COOLER THAN THE REST OF THE WEEK DUE TO POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER FROM
APPROACHING SYSTEM. STILL UNCLEAR IF THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT OUR
AREA OR SKIRT TO OUR SOUTH...FOR NOW LEFT SCHC POPS IN OUR FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
TERMINALS. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE WATERS WITH GUSTS MAINLY
20-25KTS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW. HV SCA CONDS FOR ALL WATERS
TNGT...AND ADJUSTED CONTINUATION INTO FRI MRNG FOR THE BAY. WINDS
MAY DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR A WHILE LATE TONIGHT. SCA REMAINS
IN EFFECT FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN MARINE ZONES...WHERE
GUSTS SHOULD REDEVELOP FOR AT LEAST A WHILE IN THE MORNING BEFORE
SUBSIDING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE WEEKEND...SO NOT EXPECTING
ANY MARINE CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ICE-INDUCED STREAM RISES HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. MANY OF THE STREAMS HAVE NOW CRESTED AND
ARE FALLING. IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT THERE IS AN ICE JAM ON THE
LOST/CACAPON RIVER IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA ABOVE GREAT CACAPON THAT
HAS NOT YET BROKEN...BUT WITH COLD AIR NOW BACK IN PLACE...IT MAY
NOT UNTIL TEMPERATURES WARM AGAIN...KEEPING RISES GRADUAL FOR NOW.

ALSO APPEARS THERE MAY BE SOME SORT OF ICE EFFECT ON GOOSE CREEK
BETWEEN EVERGREEN MILLS AND LANSDOWNE. THE CURRENT STAGE/FLOW AT THE
EVERGREEN MILLS GAUGE IS HIGHER THAN WOULD BE EXPECTED BASED ON
UPSTREAM SITES...AND STILL RISING. STILL A FEW FEET BELOW FLOOD
STAGE AT THIS TIME.

SINCE THERE ARE NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EVENTS EXPECTED FOR
AT LEAST A WEEK...THE MELT OF THE NEWLY-FALLEN SNOW SHOULD BE
GRADUAL. SO THE FLOOD THREAT FROM THAT SHOULD BE MINIMAL BUT WILL
BE MONITORED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ003>006-
     501>507.
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ025>031-040-
     501-503>508.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ050>053-055-
     501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540-541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530-531-535-
     536-538-539-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...KCS/HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...BJL/KCS/MSE
MARINE...MSE/HTS
HYDROLOGY...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 060247
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
947 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...USHERING IN
MARKEDLY COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
GRADUALLY MODERATING...MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE IN
THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LEADING BATCH OF PCPN (MAINLY RAIN) NOW EXITING THE COAST WITH
SCNDRY AREA OF PCPN MOVG SE ACROSS THE FA ON A LINE FROM SBY-RIC-
AVC. COLD AIR SURGE SEEN WITH THIS BATCH OF PCPN AS TMPS FALL INTO
THE 20S ALONG WITH A GUSTY N WIND AT 15-30 MPH. XPCT MAINLY SNOW
MIXED WITH SLEET WITH UP TO 1 ADDNTL INCH PSBL AS IT MOVES SE OVR
THE NEXT 2-3 HRS.

WILL KEEP ALL ADVSRYS / WARNGS GOING FOR A FEW MORE HRS AS THE
PCPN GRDLY COMES TO AN END. WILL LIKEY REPLACE HEADLINES WITH
SPS`S FOR ICY CONDITIONS AS SKIES GRDLY CLR AND TMPS FALL INTO THE
TEENS.

LOWS 10-15 NORTH...15-20 SOUTH. WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR 0 ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

SEE LATEST PNSAKQ / LSRAKQ FOR SNOW / ICE TOTALS FROM TODAYS STORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE/FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

COLD/DRY AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE LOCAL AREA FRI AS 1030+MB ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. CAA WANES...BUT
NOT BEFORE H85 TEMPS LEVEL OFF BTWN -4 AND -8C. GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE HIGHS IN THE 25-30 DEG RANGE...BUT THICKNESSES YIELD
TEMPS IN THE MID 30S. HAVE KEPT WITH PERSISTENCE OF GOING ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. UPPER 20S
INTERIOR MD ERN SHORE. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN
THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR W TO
PARTLY CLOUDY E. NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION FRI
NIGHT...RESULTING IN LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED COASTAL BOUNDARY
FRI NIGHT...BUT REMAINING OFFSHORE THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. COLD FRI NIGHT WITH WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS.

ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE
SE STATES. SWLY RETURN FLOW COMMENCES SAT...RESULTING IN MODERATING
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND TEMPS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO REBOUND NICELY
SAT...WARMING INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S
COASTAL AREAS. SKIES AVG MOSTLY CLEAR. NOT AS COLD SAT NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. WARMER SUN WITH HIGHS NEAR
NORMAL...MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S COASTAL AREAS. COLD SAT
MORNING WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/CMC/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND THESE MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR. MORE OF A SPLIT/ZONAL
PATTERN WILL AFFECT THE CNTRL/ERN U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD
RESULTING IN NEAR OR SLGTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACRS THE FCST AREA.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACRS THE REGION SUN NGT INTO MON MORNG
POSSIBLY TRIGGERING ISLTD RAIN SHOWERS. MON NGT INTO TUE NGT...SFC
HI PRES WILL BE SLIDING ACRS EXTRM NRN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...WHILE WEAK LO PRES WILL BE MOVING FM THE GULF OF MEXICO
ENE AND OFF THE SE CST. AS A RESULT...SOME DEEPER LO LVL MOISTURE
WILL LIFT NWRD INTO AT LEAST SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...SO HAVE
SLGT (15-20%) TO SML CHC (30%) POPS FOR NOW. MAINLY DRY WX...EXCEPT
FOR MAYBE SLGT CHC OVR NE NC COUNTIES...FOR WED AFTN THRU THU AS
HI PRES BLDS FARTHER S. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 30S TO
LWR 40S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 40S TO UPR 50S MON
AND TUE...AND IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 02Z...PCPN IS NEARLY OVER WITH A FEW ROUNDS OF FLURRIES PSBL
TIL MIDNIGHT MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE VFR ALL
LOCATIONS BY THAT TIME AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTN.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY AND
WILL DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING.

OUTLOOK...VFR AND DRY WEATHER ARE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATE THIS AFTN...ONE LO PRES AREA WAS OFF THE VA/NC CST WHILE A
SECOND LO PRES SYSTEM WAS ALONG THE SC CST. THESE LOWS WILL MOVE
NE ALNG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OUT TO SEA TNGT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNG. SCA`S AND GALE WARNGS REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO FRI MORNG OR
THRU FRI AFTN...DUE TO STRONG N WINDS. WAVES OVER THE CHES BAY
WILL BLD TO 3-5 FT...WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS BLDNG TO 6-11 FT.
CALMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI NGT THRU SUN...AS HI PRES BLDS OVR
THE AREA THEN SLIDES OFFSHR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PRECIPITATION AND MELTING SNOW WILL CAUSE MANY AREA RIVER LEVELS
WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME REACHING
THREE QUARTERS BANKFULL OR HIGHER. THE JAMES RIVER AT RICHMOND
WESTHAM IS FORECAST TO GO INTO MINOR FLOOD ON SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ012>017-
     030>032-102.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     VAZ060>062-065>073-077>094-099-100.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ048-049-
     063-064-074>076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ095>098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ632>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630-631-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...TMG
HYDROLOGY...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 060247
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
947 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...USHERING IN
MARKEDLY COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
GRADUALLY MODERATING...MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE IN
THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LEADING BATCH OF PCPN (MAINLY RAIN) NOW EXITING THE COAST WITH
SCNDRY AREA OF PCPN MOVG SE ACROSS THE FA ON A LINE FROM SBY-RIC-
AVC. COLD AIR SURGE SEEN WITH THIS BATCH OF PCPN AS TMPS FALL INTO
THE 20S ALONG WITH A GUSTY N WIND AT 15-30 MPH. XPCT MAINLY SNOW
MIXED WITH SLEET WITH UP TO 1 ADDNTL INCH PSBL AS IT MOVES SE OVR
THE NEXT 2-3 HRS.

WILL KEEP ALL ADVSRYS / WARNGS GOING FOR A FEW MORE HRS AS THE
PCPN GRDLY COMES TO AN END. WILL LIKEY REPLACE HEADLINES WITH
SPS`S FOR ICY CONDITIONS AS SKIES GRDLY CLR AND TMPS FALL INTO THE
TEENS.

LOWS 10-15 NORTH...15-20 SOUTH. WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR 0 ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

SEE LATEST PNSAKQ / LSRAKQ FOR SNOW / ICE TOTALS FROM TODAYS STORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE/FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

COLD/DRY AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE LOCAL AREA FRI AS 1030+MB ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. CAA WANES...BUT
NOT BEFORE H85 TEMPS LEVEL OFF BTWN -4 AND -8C. GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE HIGHS IN THE 25-30 DEG RANGE...BUT THICKNESSES YIELD
TEMPS IN THE MID 30S. HAVE KEPT WITH PERSISTENCE OF GOING ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. UPPER 20S
INTERIOR MD ERN SHORE. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN
THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR W TO
PARTLY CLOUDY E. NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION FRI
NIGHT...RESULTING IN LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED COASTAL BOUNDARY
FRI NIGHT...BUT REMAINING OFFSHORE THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. COLD FRI NIGHT WITH WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS.

ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE
SE STATES. SWLY RETURN FLOW COMMENCES SAT...RESULTING IN MODERATING
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND TEMPS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO REBOUND NICELY
SAT...WARMING INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S
COASTAL AREAS. SKIES AVG MOSTLY CLEAR. NOT AS COLD SAT NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. WARMER SUN WITH HIGHS NEAR
NORMAL...MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S COASTAL AREAS. COLD SAT
MORNING WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/CMC/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND THESE MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR. MORE OF A SPLIT/ZONAL
PATTERN WILL AFFECT THE CNTRL/ERN U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD
RESULTING IN NEAR OR SLGTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACRS THE FCST AREA.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACRS THE REGION SUN NGT INTO MON MORNG
POSSIBLY TRIGGERING ISLTD RAIN SHOWERS. MON NGT INTO TUE NGT...SFC
HI PRES WILL BE SLIDING ACRS EXTRM NRN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...WHILE WEAK LO PRES WILL BE MOVING FM THE GULF OF MEXICO
ENE AND OFF THE SE CST. AS A RESULT...SOME DEEPER LO LVL MOISTURE
WILL LIFT NWRD INTO AT LEAST SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...SO HAVE
SLGT (15-20%) TO SML CHC (30%) POPS FOR NOW. MAINLY DRY WX...EXCEPT
FOR MAYBE SLGT CHC OVR NE NC COUNTIES...FOR WED AFTN THRU THU AS
HI PRES BLDS FARTHER S. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 30S TO
LWR 40S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 40S TO UPR 50S MON
AND TUE...AND IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 02Z...PCPN IS NEARLY OVER WITH A FEW ROUNDS OF FLURRIES PSBL
TIL MIDNIGHT MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE VFR ALL
LOCATIONS BY THAT TIME AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTN.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY AND
WILL DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING.

OUTLOOK...VFR AND DRY WEATHER ARE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATE THIS AFTN...ONE LO PRES AREA WAS OFF THE VA/NC CST WHILE A
SECOND LO PRES SYSTEM WAS ALONG THE SC CST. THESE LOWS WILL MOVE
NE ALNG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OUT TO SEA TNGT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNG. SCA`S AND GALE WARNGS REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO FRI MORNG OR
THRU FRI AFTN...DUE TO STRONG N WINDS. WAVES OVER THE CHES BAY
WILL BLD TO 3-5 FT...WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS BLDNG TO 6-11 FT.
CALMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI NGT THRU SUN...AS HI PRES BLDS OVR
THE AREA THEN SLIDES OFFSHR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PRECIPITATION AND MELTING SNOW WILL CAUSE MANY AREA RIVER LEVELS
WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME REACHING
THREE QUARTERS BANKFULL OR HIGHER. THE JAMES RIVER AT RICHMOND
WESTHAM IS FORECAST TO GO INTO MINOR FLOOD ON SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ012>017-
     030>032-102.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     VAZ060>062-065>073-077>094-099-100.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ048-049-
     063-064-074>076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ095>098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ632>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630-631-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...TMG
HYDROLOGY...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 060247
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
947 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...USHERING IN
MARKEDLY COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
GRADUALLY MODERATING...MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE IN
THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LEADING BATCH OF PCPN (MAINLY RAIN) NOW EXITING THE COAST WITH
SCNDRY AREA OF PCPN MOVG SE ACROSS THE FA ON A LINE FROM SBY-RIC-
AVC. COLD AIR SURGE SEEN WITH THIS BATCH OF PCPN AS TMPS FALL INTO
THE 20S ALONG WITH A GUSTY N WIND AT 15-30 MPH. XPCT MAINLY SNOW
MIXED WITH SLEET WITH UP TO 1 ADDNTL INCH PSBL AS IT MOVES SE OVR
THE NEXT 2-3 HRS.

WILL KEEP ALL ADVSRYS / WARNGS GOING FOR A FEW MORE HRS AS THE
PCPN GRDLY COMES TO AN END. WILL LIKEY REPLACE HEADLINES WITH
SPS`S FOR ICY CONDITIONS AS SKIES GRDLY CLR AND TMPS FALL INTO THE
TEENS.

LOWS 10-15 NORTH...15-20 SOUTH. WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR 0 ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

SEE LATEST PNSAKQ / LSRAKQ FOR SNOW / ICE TOTALS FROM TODAYS STORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE/FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

COLD/DRY AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE LOCAL AREA FRI AS 1030+MB ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. CAA WANES...BUT
NOT BEFORE H85 TEMPS LEVEL OFF BTWN -4 AND -8C. GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE HIGHS IN THE 25-30 DEG RANGE...BUT THICKNESSES YIELD
TEMPS IN THE MID 30S. HAVE KEPT WITH PERSISTENCE OF GOING ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. UPPER 20S
INTERIOR MD ERN SHORE. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN
THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR W TO
PARTLY CLOUDY E. NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION FRI
NIGHT...RESULTING IN LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED COASTAL BOUNDARY
FRI NIGHT...BUT REMAINING OFFSHORE THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. COLD FRI NIGHT WITH WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS.

ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE
SE STATES. SWLY RETURN FLOW COMMENCES SAT...RESULTING IN MODERATING
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND TEMPS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO REBOUND NICELY
SAT...WARMING INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S
COASTAL AREAS. SKIES AVG MOSTLY CLEAR. NOT AS COLD SAT NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. WARMER SUN WITH HIGHS NEAR
NORMAL...MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S COASTAL AREAS. COLD SAT
MORNING WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/CMC/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND THESE MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR. MORE OF A SPLIT/ZONAL
PATTERN WILL AFFECT THE CNTRL/ERN U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD
RESULTING IN NEAR OR SLGTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACRS THE FCST AREA.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACRS THE REGION SUN NGT INTO MON MORNG
POSSIBLY TRIGGERING ISLTD RAIN SHOWERS. MON NGT INTO TUE NGT...SFC
HI PRES WILL BE SLIDING ACRS EXTRM NRN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...WHILE WEAK LO PRES WILL BE MOVING FM THE GULF OF MEXICO
ENE AND OFF THE SE CST. AS A RESULT...SOME DEEPER LO LVL MOISTURE
WILL LIFT NWRD INTO AT LEAST SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...SO HAVE
SLGT (15-20%) TO SML CHC (30%) POPS FOR NOW. MAINLY DRY WX...EXCEPT
FOR MAYBE SLGT CHC OVR NE NC COUNTIES...FOR WED AFTN THRU THU AS
HI PRES BLDS FARTHER S. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 30S TO
LWR 40S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 40S TO UPR 50S MON
AND TUE...AND IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 02Z...PCPN IS NEARLY OVER WITH A FEW ROUNDS OF FLURRIES PSBL
TIL MIDNIGHT MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE VFR ALL
LOCATIONS BY THAT TIME AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTN.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY AND
WILL DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING.

OUTLOOK...VFR AND DRY WEATHER ARE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATE THIS AFTN...ONE LO PRES AREA WAS OFF THE VA/NC CST WHILE A
SECOND LO PRES SYSTEM WAS ALONG THE SC CST. THESE LOWS WILL MOVE
NE ALNG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OUT TO SEA TNGT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNG. SCA`S AND GALE WARNGS REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO FRI MORNG OR
THRU FRI AFTN...DUE TO STRONG N WINDS. WAVES OVER THE CHES BAY
WILL BLD TO 3-5 FT...WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS BLDNG TO 6-11 FT.
CALMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI NGT THRU SUN...AS HI PRES BLDS OVR
THE AREA THEN SLIDES OFFSHR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PRECIPITATION AND MELTING SNOW WILL CAUSE MANY AREA RIVER LEVELS
WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME REACHING
THREE QUARTERS BANKFULL OR HIGHER. THE JAMES RIVER AT RICHMOND
WESTHAM IS FORECAST TO GO INTO MINOR FLOOD ON SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ012>017-
     030>032-102.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     VAZ060>062-065>073-077>094-099-100.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ048-049-
     063-064-074>076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ095>098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ632>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630-631-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...TMG
HYDROLOGY...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 060247
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
947 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...USHERING IN
MARKEDLY COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
GRADUALLY MODERATING...MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE IN
THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LEADING BATCH OF PCPN (MAINLY RAIN) NOW EXITING THE COAST WITH
SCNDRY AREA OF PCPN MOVG SE ACROSS THE FA ON A LINE FROM SBY-RIC-
AVC. COLD AIR SURGE SEEN WITH THIS BATCH OF PCPN AS TMPS FALL INTO
THE 20S ALONG WITH A GUSTY N WIND AT 15-30 MPH. XPCT MAINLY SNOW
MIXED WITH SLEET WITH UP TO 1 ADDNTL INCH PSBL AS IT MOVES SE OVR
THE NEXT 2-3 HRS.

WILL KEEP ALL ADVSRYS / WARNGS GOING FOR A FEW MORE HRS AS THE
PCPN GRDLY COMES TO AN END. WILL LIKEY REPLACE HEADLINES WITH
SPS`S FOR ICY CONDITIONS AS SKIES GRDLY CLR AND TMPS FALL INTO THE
TEENS.

LOWS 10-15 NORTH...15-20 SOUTH. WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR 0 ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

SEE LATEST PNSAKQ / LSRAKQ FOR SNOW / ICE TOTALS FROM TODAYS STORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE/FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

COLD/DRY AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE LOCAL AREA FRI AS 1030+MB ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. CAA WANES...BUT
NOT BEFORE H85 TEMPS LEVEL OFF BTWN -4 AND -8C. GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE HIGHS IN THE 25-30 DEG RANGE...BUT THICKNESSES YIELD
TEMPS IN THE MID 30S. HAVE KEPT WITH PERSISTENCE OF GOING ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. UPPER 20S
INTERIOR MD ERN SHORE. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN
THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR W TO
PARTLY CLOUDY E. NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION FRI
NIGHT...RESULTING IN LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED COASTAL BOUNDARY
FRI NIGHT...BUT REMAINING OFFSHORE THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. COLD FRI NIGHT WITH WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS.

ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE
SE STATES. SWLY RETURN FLOW COMMENCES SAT...RESULTING IN MODERATING
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND TEMPS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO REBOUND NICELY
SAT...WARMING INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S
COASTAL AREAS. SKIES AVG MOSTLY CLEAR. NOT AS COLD SAT NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. WARMER SUN WITH HIGHS NEAR
NORMAL...MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S COASTAL AREAS. COLD SAT
MORNING WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/CMC/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND THESE MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR. MORE OF A SPLIT/ZONAL
PATTERN WILL AFFECT THE CNTRL/ERN U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD
RESULTING IN NEAR OR SLGTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACRS THE FCST AREA.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACRS THE REGION SUN NGT INTO MON MORNG
POSSIBLY TRIGGERING ISLTD RAIN SHOWERS. MON NGT INTO TUE NGT...SFC
HI PRES WILL BE SLIDING ACRS EXTRM NRN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...WHILE WEAK LO PRES WILL BE MOVING FM THE GULF OF MEXICO
ENE AND OFF THE SE CST. AS A RESULT...SOME DEEPER LO LVL MOISTURE
WILL LIFT NWRD INTO AT LEAST SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...SO HAVE
SLGT (15-20%) TO SML CHC (30%) POPS FOR NOW. MAINLY DRY WX...EXCEPT
FOR MAYBE SLGT CHC OVR NE NC COUNTIES...FOR WED AFTN THRU THU AS
HI PRES BLDS FARTHER S. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 30S TO
LWR 40S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 40S TO UPR 50S MON
AND TUE...AND IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 02Z...PCPN IS NEARLY OVER WITH A FEW ROUNDS OF FLURRIES PSBL
TIL MIDNIGHT MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE VFR ALL
LOCATIONS BY THAT TIME AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTN.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY AND
WILL DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING.

OUTLOOK...VFR AND DRY WEATHER ARE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATE THIS AFTN...ONE LO PRES AREA WAS OFF THE VA/NC CST WHILE A
SECOND LO PRES SYSTEM WAS ALONG THE SC CST. THESE LOWS WILL MOVE
NE ALNG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OUT TO SEA TNGT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNG. SCA`S AND GALE WARNGS REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO FRI MORNG OR
THRU FRI AFTN...DUE TO STRONG N WINDS. WAVES OVER THE CHES BAY
WILL BLD TO 3-5 FT...WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS BLDNG TO 6-11 FT.
CALMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI NGT THRU SUN...AS HI PRES BLDS OVR
THE AREA THEN SLIDES OFFSHR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PRECIPITATION AND MELTING SNOW WILL CAUSE MANY AREA RIVER LEVELS
WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME REACHING
THREE QUARTERS BANKFULL OR HIGHER. THE JAMES RIVER AT RICHMOND
WESTHAM IS FORECAST TO GO INTO MINOR FLOOD ON SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ012>017-
     030>032-102.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     VAZ060>062-065>073-077>094-099-100.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ048-049-
     063-064-074>076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ095>098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ632>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630-631-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...TMG
HYDROLOGY...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 060247
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
947 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...USHERING IN
MARKEDLY COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
GRADUALLY MODERATING...MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE IN
THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LEADING BATCH OF PCPN (MAINLY RAIN) NOW EXITING THE COAST WITH
SCNDRY AREA OF PCPN MOVG SE ACROSS THE FA ON A LINE FROM SBY-RIC-
AVC. COLD AIR SURGE SEEN WITH THIS BATCH OF PCPN AS TMPS FALL INTO
THE 20S ALONG WITH A GUSTY N WIND AT 15-30 MPH. XPCT MAINLY SNOW
MIXED WITH SLEET WITH UP TO 1 ADDNTL INCH PSBL AS IT MOVES SE OVR
THE NEXT 2-3 HRS.

WILL KEEP ALL ADVSRYS / WARNGS GOING FOR A FEW MORE HRS AS THE
PCPN GRDLY COMES TO AN END. WILL LIKEY REPLACE HEADLINES WITH
SPS`S FOR ICY CONDITIONS AS SKIES GRDLY CLR AND TMPS FALL INTO THE
TEENS.

LOWS 10-15 NORTH...15-20 SOUTH. WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR 0 ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

SEE LATEST PNSAKQ / LSRAKQ FOR SNOW / ICE TOTALS FROM TODAYS STORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE/FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

COLD/DRY AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE LOCAL AREA FRI AS 1030+MB ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. CAA WANES...BUT
NOT BEFORE H85 TEMPS LEVEL OFF BTWN -4 AND -8C. GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE HIGHS IN THE 25-30 DEG RANGE...BUT THICKNESSES YIELD
TEMPS IN THE MID 30S. HAVE KEPT WITH PERSISTENCE OF GOING ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. UPPER 20S
INTERIOR MD ERN SHORE. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN
THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR W TO
PARTLY CLOUDY E. NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION FRI
NIGHT...RESULTING IN LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED COASTAL BOUNDARY
FRI NIGHT...BUT REMAINING OFFSHORE THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. COLD FRI NIGHT WITH WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS.

ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE
SE STATES. SWLY RETURN FLOW COMMENCES SAT...RESULTING IN MODERATING
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND TEMPS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO REBOUND NICELY
SAT...WARMING INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S
COASTAL AREAS. SKIES AVG MOSTLY CLEAR. NOT AS COLD SAT NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. WARMER SUN WITH HIGHS NEAR
NORMAL...MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S COASTAL AREAS. COLD SAT
MORNING WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/CMC/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND THESE MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR. MORE OF A SPLIT/ZONAL
PATTERN WILL AFFECT THE CNTRL/ERN U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD
RESULTING IN NEAR OR SLGTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACRS THE FCST AREA.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACRS THE REGION SUN NGT INTO MON MORNG
POSSIBLY TRIGGERING ISLTD RAIN SHOWERS. MON NGT INTO TUE NGT...SFC
HI PRES WILL BE SLIDING ACRS EXTRM NRN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...WHILE WEAK LO PRES WILL BE MOVING FM THE GULF OF MEXICO
ENE AND OFF THE SE CST. AS A RESULT...SOME DEEPER LO LVL MOISTURE
WILL LIFT NWRD INTO AT LEAST SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...SO HAVE
SLGT (15-20%) TO SML CHC (30%) POPS FOR NOW. MAINLY DRY WX...EXCEPT
FOR MAYBE SLGT CHC OVR NE NC COUNTIES...FOR WED AFTN THRU THU AS
HI PRES BLDS FARTHER S. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 30S TO
LWR 40S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 40S TO UPR 50S MON
AND TUE...AND IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 02Z...PCPN IS NEARLY OVER WITH A FEW ROUNDS OF FLURRIES PSBL
TIL MIDNIGHT MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE VFR ALL
LOCATIONS BY THAT TIME AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTN.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY AND
WILL DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING.

OUTLOOK...VFR AND DRY WEATHER ARE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATE THIS AFTN...ONE LO PRES AREA WAS OFF THE VA/NC CST WHILE A
SECOND LO PRES SYSTEM WAS ALONG THE SC CST. THESE LOWS WILL MOVE
NE ALNG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OUT TO SEA TNGT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNG. SCA`S AND GALE WARNGS REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO FRI MORNG OR
THRU FRI AFTN...DUE TO STRONG N WINDS. WAVES OVER THE CHES BAY
WILL BLD TO 3-5 FT...WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS BLDNG TO 6-11 FT.
CALMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI NGT THRU SUN...AS HI PRES BLDS OVR
THE AREA THEN SLIDES OFFSHR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PRECIPITATION AND MELTING SNOW WILL CAUSE MANY AREA RIVER LEVELS
WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME REACHING
THREE QUARTERS BANKFULL OR HIGHER. THE JAMES RIVER AT RICHMOND
WESTHAM IS FORECAST TO GO INTO MINOR FLOOD ON SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ012>017-
     030>032-102.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     VAZ060>062-065>073-077>094-099-100.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ048-049-
     063-064-074>076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ095>098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ632>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630-631-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...TMG
HYDROLOGY...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 060247
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
947 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...USHERING IN
MARKEDLY COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
GRADUALLY MODERATING...MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE IN
THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LEADING BATCH OF PCPN (MAINLY RAIN) NOW EXITING THE COAST WITH
SCNDRY AREA OF PCPN MOVG SE ACROSS THE FA ON A LINE FROM SBY-RIC-
AVC. COLD AIR SURGE SEEN WITH THIS BATCH OF PCPN AS TMPS FALL INTO
THE 20S ALONG WITH A GUSTY N WIND AT 15-30 MPH. XPCT MAINLY SNOW
MIXED WITH SLEET WITH UP TO 1 ADDNTL INCH PSBL AS IT MOVES SE OVR
THE NEXT 2-3 HRS.

WILL KEEP ALL ADVSRYS / WARNGS GOING FOR A FEW MORE HRS AS THE
PCPN GRDLY COMES TO AN END. WILL LIKEY REPLACE HEADLINES WITH
SPS`S FOR ICY CONDITIONS AS SKIES GRDLY CLR AND TMPS FALL INTO THE
TEENS.

LOWS 10-15 NORTH...15-20 SOUTH. WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR 0 ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

SEE LATEST PNSAKQ / LSRAKQ FOR SNOW / ICE TOTALS FROM TODAYS STORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE/FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

COLD/DRY AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE LOCAL AREA FRI AS 1030+MB ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. CAA WANES...BUT
NOT BEFORE H85 TEMPS LEVEL OFF BTWN -4 AND -8C. GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE HIGHS IN THE 25-30 DEG RANGE...BUT THICKNESSES YIELD
TEMPS IN THE MID 30S. HAVE KEPT WITH PERSISTENCE OF GOING ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. UPPER 20S
INTERIOR MD ERN SHORE. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN
THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR W TO
PARTLY CLOUDY E. NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION FRI
NIGHT...RESULTING IN LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED COASTAL BOUNDARY
FRI NIGHT...BUT REMAINING OFFSHORE THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. COLD FRI NIGHT WITH WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS.

ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE
SE STATES. SWLY RETURN FLOW COMMENCES SAT...RESULTING IN MODERATING
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND TEMPS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO REBOUND NICELY
SAT...WARMING INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S
COASTAL AREAS. SKIES AVG MOSTLY CLEAR. NOT AS COLD SAT NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. WARMER SUN WITH HIGHS NEAR
NORMAL...MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S COASTAL AREAS. COLD SAT
MORNING WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/CMC/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND THESE MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR. MORE OF A SPLIT/ZONAL
PATTERN WILL AFFECT THE CNTRL/ERN U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD
RESULTING IN NEAR OR SLGTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACRS THE FCST AREA.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACRS THE REGION SUN NGT INTO MON MORNG
POSSIBLY TRIGGERING ISLTD RAIN SHOWERS. MON NGT INTO TUE NGT...SFC
HI PRES WILL BE SLIDING ACRS EXTRM NRN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...WHILE WEAK LO PRES WILL BE MOVING FM THE GULF OF MEXICO
ENE AND OFF THE SE CST. AS A RESULT...SOME DEEPER LO LVL MOISTURE
WILL LIFT NWRD INTO AT LEAST SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...SO HAVE
SLGT (15-20%) TO SML CHC (30%) POPS FOR NOW. MAINLY DRY WX...EXCEPT
FOR MAYBE SLGT CHC OVR NE NC COUNTIES...FOR WED AFTN THRU THU AS
HI PRES BLDS FARTHER S. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 30S TO
LWR 40S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 40S TO UPR 50S MON
AND TUE...AND IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 02Z...PCPN IS NEARLY OVER WITH A FEW ROUNDS OF FLURRIES PSBL
TIL MIDNIGHT MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE VFR ALL
LOCATIONS BY THAT TIME AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTN.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY AND
WILL DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING.

OUTLOOK...VFR AND DRY WEATHER ARE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATE THIS AFTN...ONE LO PRES AREA WAS OFF THE VA/NC CST WHILE A
SECOND LO PRES SYSTEM WAS ALONG THE SC CST. THESE LOWS WILL MOVE
NE ALNG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OUT TO SEA TNGT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNG. SCA`S AND GALE WARNGS REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO FRI MORNG OR
THRU FRI AFTN...DUE TO STRONG N WINDS. WAVES OVER THE CHES BAY
WILL BLD TO 3-5 FT...WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS BLDNG TO 6-11 FT.
CALMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI NGT THRU SUN...AS HI PRES BLDS OVR
THE AREA THEN SLIDES OFFSHR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PRECIPITATION AND MELTING SNOW WILL CAUSE MANY AREA RIVER LEVELS
WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME REACHING
THREE QUARTERS BANKFULL OR HIGHER. THE JAMES RIVER AT RICHMOND
WESTHAM IS FORECAST TO GO INTO MINOR FLOOD ON SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ012>017-
     030>032-102.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     VAZ060>062-065>073-077>094-099-100.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ048-049-
     063-064-074>076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ095>098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ632>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630-631-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...TMG
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 060224
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
924 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH
WILL THEN SETTLE TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, PULLING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN
BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE NEXT COLD
FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
STORM OVER: PNS AND RER`S ARE POSTED. THE PNS FOR SNOW WILL
FURTHER UPDATE OVERNIGHT.

HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT BECAUSE OF INCREASED WIND.
RECORD LOWS STILL APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF OCCURRING AT
KABE AND KRDG, PROVIDED LATE DECOUPLING OCCURS NEAR SUNRISE.

THE 18Z NAM WAS MUCH BETTER AT AT ATTEMPTING TO DEPICT THE
GUSTINESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE 00Z NAM SUGGESTS WIND
GUSTS WILL INCREASE 5 KT TOWARD 06Z BEFORE DECOUPLING ATTEMPTS TO
BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE AROUND 09Z.

AT 02Z, THE BACKEDGE OF THE THICK HIGH CLOUD DECK WAS MOVING EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE BLENDED MET/MAV AND ADDITIONALLY FOR
THE E PA AND NNJ COUNTRYSIDE ONLY, ADDED THE MODELED GFS TWO
METER TEMPERATURES.

WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO FALL TO NEAR ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION, WITH THE POCONOS SEEING WIND CHILLS WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO
ADVISORY THRESHOLD FOR A FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE LIMITED WINDOW AND
MARGINAL VALUES IN TERMS OF AND ADVISORY, WILL JUST CONTINUE
MENTION IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY BUT STILL COLD.
DID GO A TOUCH WARMER THAN MAV/MET GIVEN THE COOL DAYTIME BIAS
WITH SNOW COVER. OTHER ELEMENTS STRAIGHT MAV/MET. CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 MPH OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW, THIS FEATURE SHOULD AMPLIFY A LITTLE
FOR A TIME OR TWO. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS ENERGY EJECTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH A RIDGE POTENTIALLY BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.
THIS RESULTS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK.
WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT
WITH THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. WE THEN MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER A DRY AIRMASS RESULTS IN NO PRECIPITATION.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA HOWEVER ITS
CENTER SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL RETURN FLOW BEING ESTABLISHED AND AFTER A VERY COLD START
SATURDAY, SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES SUNDAY, THEN WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY. THIS
WILL DRIVE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING MONDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE AS MUCH OF THE LIFT
OCCURS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THERE COULD BE A SNOW SHOWER THOUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, THE AIRMASS
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MODIFY AS THE FLOW COMES MORE FROM THE
WEST AND NOT THE NORTH.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
PRESSURE APPEARS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH ONCE AGAIN, WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING MOSTLY TO OUR NORTHWEST. WHILE THE FLOW LOOKS FAIRLY
WEAK, ENOUGH WAA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR FURTHER
MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH MANY AREAS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ARRIVING LATE
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE
ALOFT IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA, WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM NEAR MAINE TO THE
GREAT LAKES THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE MUCH
MILDER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 50S. THE OCEAN AND
DELAWARE BAY ARE COLD AND IF THERE IS LIGHT ENOUGH FLOW, THEN A
COOLING AFFECT CAN BE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...VFR CIGS BECOME VFR CLEAR FM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 3Z AND 6Z. NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND GUST AROUND 20 KT
DIMINISHING TOWARD SUNRISE.

FRIDAY...VFR CLEAR WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS AOA 20000 FT LATE IN THE DAY.
LIGHT WIND.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING BY
LATER SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER ANY
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IT
MOVES THROUGH DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDING THE SCA ALONG LOWER DELAWARE BAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. WE MAY NEED TO ADD A SHORT FUSE SCA FOR UPPER DE BAY AROUND
05Z?  SCA CONTINUES ALONG THE ALTC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FOR FRIDAY, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE SOME FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING SATURDAY. THERE IS A
CHC FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE ARE ANTICIPATING SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY DURING
MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH A SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING WE HAVE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909

THE THE 9 PM FORECAST HAS KRDG AND KABE BREAKING THEIR RECORD LOW
FRIDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

IT APPEARS THAT READING AND ATLANTIC CITY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF GETTING TO THEIR RECORD LOW SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

RER`S POSTED FOR KILG AND KACY...BOTH 7.0 INCHES.

PHL HAD 7.5 AND ALLENTOWN 6.7.

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

FWIW...WATER EQUIVALENCE OF TOTAL SNOW DEPTH IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PA IS NOW WELL OVER 3 INCHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG  923
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE/O`HARA 923
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE/O`HARA 923
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 060224
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
924 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH
WILL THEN SETTLE TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, PULLING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN
BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE NEXT COLD
FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
STORM OVER: PNS AND RER`S ARE POSTED. THE PNS FOR SNOW WILL
FURTHER UPDATE OVERNIGHT.

HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT BECAUSE OF INCREASED WIND.
RECORD LOWS STILL APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF OCCURRING AT
KABE AND KRDG, PROVIDED LATE DECOUPLING OCCURS NEAR SUNRISE.

THE 18Z NAM WAS MUCH BETTER AT AT ATTEMPTING TO DEPICT THE
GUSTINESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE 00Z NAM SUGGESTS WIND
GUSTS WILL INCREASE 5 KT TOWARD 06Z BEFORE DECOUPLING ATTEMPTS TO
BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE AROUND 09Z.

AT 02Z, THE BACKEDGE OF THE THICK HIGH CLOUD DECK WAS MOVING EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE BLENDED MET/MAV AND ADDITIONALLY FOR
THE E PA AND NNJ COUNTRYSIDE ONLY, ADDED THE MODELED GFS TWO
METER TEMPERATURES.

WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO FALL TO NEAR ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION, WITH THE POCONOS SEEING WIND CHILLS WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO
ADVISORY THRESHOLD FOR A FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE LIMITED WINDOW AND
MARGINAL VALUES IN TERMS OF AND ADVISORY, WILL JUST CONTINUE
MENTION IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY BUT STILL COLD.
DID GO A TOUCH WARMER THAN MAV/MET GIVEN THE COOL DAYTIME BIAS
WITH SNOW COVER. OTHER ELEMENTS STRAIGHT MAV/MET. CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 MPH OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW, THIS FEATURE SHOULD AMPLIFY A LITTLE
FOR A TIME OR TWO. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS ENERGY EJECTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH A RIDGE POTENTIALLY BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.
THIS RESULTS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK.
WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT
WITH THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. WE THEN MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER A DRY AIRMASS RESULTS IN NO PRECIPITATION.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA HOWEVER ITS
CENTER SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL RETURN FLOW BEING ESTABLISHED AND AFTER A VERY COLD START
SATURDAY, SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES SUNDAY, THEN WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY. THIS
WILL DRIVE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING MONDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE AS MUCH OF THE LIFT
OCCURS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THERE COULD BE A SNOW SHOWER THOUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, THE AIRMASS
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MODIFY AS THE FLOW COMES MORE FROM THE
WEST AND NOT THE NORTH.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
PRESSURE APPEARS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH ONCE AGAIN, WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING MOSTLY TO OUR NORTHWEST. WHILE THE FLOW LOOKS FAIRLY
WEAK, ENOUGH WAA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR FURTHER
MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH MANY AREAS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ARRIVING LATE
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE
ALOFT IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA, WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM NEAR MAINE TO THE
GREAT LAKES THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE MUCH
MILDER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 50S. THE OCEAN AND
DELAWARE BAY ARE COLD AND IF THERE IS LIGHT ENOUGH FLOW, THEN A
COOLING AFFECT CAN BE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...VFR CIGS BECOME VFR CLEAR FM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 3Z AND 6Z. NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND GUST AROUND 20 KT
DIMINISHING TOWARD SUNRISE.

FRIDAY...VFR CLEAR WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS AOA 20000 FT LATE IN THE DAY.
LIGHT WIND.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING BY
LATER SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER ANY
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IT
MOVES THROUGH DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDING THE SCA ALONG LOWER DELAWARE BAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. WE MAY NEED TO ADD A SHORT FUSE SCA FOR UPPER DE BAY AROUND
05Z?  SCA CONTINUES ALONG THE ALTC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FOR FRIDAY, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE SOME FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING SATURDAY. THERE IS A
CHC FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE ARE ANTICIPATING SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY DURING
MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH A SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING WE HAVE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909

THE THE 9 PM FORECAST HAS KRDG AND KABE BREAKING THEIR RECORD LOW
FRIDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

IT APPEARS THAT READING AND ATLANTIC CITY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF GETTING TO THEIR RECORD LOW SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

RER`S POSTED FOR KILG AND KACY...BOTH 7.0 INCHES.

PHL HAD 7.5 AND ALLENTOWN 6.7.

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

FWIW...WATER EQUIVALENCE OF TOTAL SNOW DEPTH IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PA IS NOW WELL OVER 3 INCHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG  923
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE/O`HARA 923
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE/O`HARA 923
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 060224
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
924 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH
WILL THEN SETTLE TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, PULLING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN
BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE NEXT COLD
FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
STORM OVER: PNS AND RER`S ARE POSTED. THE PNS FOR SNOW WILL
FURTHER UPDATE OVERNIGHT.

HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT BECAUSE OF INCREASED WIND.
RECORD LOWS STILL APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF OCCURRING AT
KABE AND KRDG, PROVIDED LATE DECOUPLING OCCURS NEAR SUNRISE.

THE 18Z NAM WAS MUCH BETTER AT AT ATTEMPTING TO DEPICT THE
GUSTINESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE 00Z NAM SUGGESTS WIND
GUSTS WILL INCREASE 5 KT TOWARD 06Z BEFORE DECOUPLING ATTEMPTS TO
BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE AROUND 09Z.

AT 02Z, THE BACKEDGE OF THE THICK HIGH CLOUD DECK WAS MOVING EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE BLENDED MET/MAV AND ADDITIONALLY FOR
THE E PA AND NNJ COUNTRYSIDE ONLY, ADDED THE MODELED GFS TWO
METER TEMPERATURES.

WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO FALL TO NEAR ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION, WITH THE POCONOS SEEING WIND CHILLS WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO
ADVISORY THRESHOLD FOR A FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE LIMITED WINDOW AND
MARGINAL VALUES IN TERMS OF AND ADVISORY, WILL JUST CONTINUE
MENTION IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY BUT STILL COLD.
DID GO A TOUCH WARMER THAN MAV/MET GIVEN THE COOL DAYTIME BIAS
WITH SNOW COVER. OTHER ELEMENTS STRAIGHT MAV/MET. CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 MPH OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW, THIS FEATURE SHOULD AMPLIFY A LITTLE
FOR A TIME OR TWO. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS ENERGY EJECTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH A RIDGE POTENTIALLY BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.
THIS RESULTS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK.
WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT
WITH THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. WE THEN MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER A DRY AIRMASS RESULTS IN NO PRECIPITATION.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA HOWEVER ITS
CENTER SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL RETURN FLOW BEING ESTABLISHED AND AFTER A VERY COLD START
SATURDAY, SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES SUNDAY, THEN WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY. THIS
WILL DRIVE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING MONDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE AS MUCH OF THE LIFT
OCCURS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THERE COULD BE A SNOW SHOWER THOUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, THE AIRMASS
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MODIFY AS THE FLOW COMES MORE FROM THE
WEST AND NOT THE NORTH.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
PRESSURE APPEARS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH ONCE AGAIN, WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING MOSTLY TO OUR NORTHWEST. WHILE THE FLOW LOOKS FAIRLY
WEAK, ENOUGH WAA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR FURTHER
MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH MANY AREAS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ARRIVING LATE
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE
ALOFT IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA, WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM NEAR MAINE TO THE
GREAT LAKES THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE MUCH
MILDER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 50S. THE OCEAN AND
DELAWARE BAY ARE COLD AND IF THERE IS LIGHT ENOUGH FLOW, THEN A
COOLING AFFECT CAN BE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...VFR CIGS BECOME VFR CLEAR FM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 3Z AND 6Z. NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND GUST AROUND 20 KT
DIMINISHING TOWARD SUNRISE.

FRIDAY...VFR CLEAR WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS AOA 20000 FT LATE IN THE DAY.
LIGHT WIND.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING BY
LATER SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER ANY
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IT
MOVES THROUGH DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDING THE SCA ALONG LOWER DELAWARE BAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. WE MAY NEED TO ADD A SHORT FUSE SCA FOR UPPER DE BAY AROUND
05Z?  SCA CONTINUES ALONG THE ALTC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FOR FRIDAY, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE SOME FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING SATURDAY. THERE IS A
CHC FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE ARE ANTICIPATING SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY DURING
MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH A SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING WE HAVE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909

THE THE 9 PM FORECAST HAS KRDG AND KABE BREAKING THEIR RECORD LOW
FRIDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

IT APPEARS THAT READING AND ATLANTIC CITY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF GETTING TO THEIR RECORD LOW SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

RER`S POSTED FOR KILG AND KACY...BOTH 7.0 INCHES.

PHL HAD 7.5 AND ALLENTOWN 6.7.

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

FWIW...WATER EQUIVALENCE OF TOTAL SNOW DEPTH IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PA IS NOW WELL OVER 3 INCHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG  923
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE/O`HARA 923
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE/O`HARA 923
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 060224
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
924 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH
WILL THEN SETTLE TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, PULLING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN
BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE NEXT COLD
FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
STORM OVER: PNS AND RER`S ARE POSTED. THE PNS FOR SNOW WILL
FURTHER UPDATE OVERNIGHT.

HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT BECAUSE OF INCREASED WIND.
RECORD LOWS STILL APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF OCCURRING AT
KABE AND KRDG, PROVIDED LATE DECOUPLING OCCURS NEAR SUNRISE.

THE 18Z NAM WAS MUCH BETTER AT AT ATTEMPTING TO DEPICT THE
GUSTINESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE 00Z NAM SUGGESTS WIND
GUSTS WILL INCREASE 5 KT TOWARD 06Z BEFORE DECOUPLING ATTEMPTS TO
BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE AROUND 09Z.

AT 02Z, THE BACKEDGE OF THE THICK HIGH CLOUD DECK WAS MOVING EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE BLENDED MET/MAV AND ADDITIONALLY FOR
THE E PA AND NNJ COUNTRYSIDE ONLY, ADDED THE MODELED GFS TWO
METER TEMPERATURES.

WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO FALL TO NEAR ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION, WITH THE POCONOS SEEING WIND CHILLS WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO
ADVISORY THRESHOLD FOR A FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE LIMITED WINDOW AND
MARGINAL VALUES IN TERMS OF AND ADVISORY, WILL JUST CONTINUE
MENTION IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY BUT STILL COLD.
DID GO A TOUCH WARMER THAN MAV/MET GIVEN THE COOL DAYTIME BIAS
WITH SNOW COVER. OTHER ELEMENTS STRAIGHT MAV/MET. CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 MPH OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW, THIS FEATURE SHOULD AMPLIFY A LITTLE
FOR A TIME OR TWO. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS ENERGY EJECTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH A RIDGE POTENTIALLY BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.
THIS RESULTS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK.
WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT
WITH THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. WE THEN MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER A DRY AIRMASS RESULTS IN NO PRECIPITATION.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA HOWEVER ITS
CENTER SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL RETURN FLOW BEING ESTABLISHED AND AFTER A VERY COLD START
SATURDAY, SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES SUNDAY, THEN WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY. THIS
WILL DRIVE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING MONDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE AS MUCH OF THE LIFT
OCCURS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THERE COULD BE A SNOW SHOWER THOUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, THE AIRMASS
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MODIFY AS THE FLOW COMES MORE FROM THE
WEST AND NOT THE NORTH.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
PRESSURE APPEARS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH ONCE AGAIN, WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING MOSTLY TO OUR NORTHWEST. WHILE THE FLOW LOOKS FAIRLY
WEAK, ENOUGH WAA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR FURTHER
MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH MANY AREAS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ARRIVING LATE
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE
ALOFT IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA, WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM NEAR MAINE TO THE
GREAT LAKES THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE MUCH
MILDER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 50S. THE OCEAN AND
DELAWARE BAY ARE COLD AND IF THERE IS LIGHT ENOUGH FLOW, THEN A
COOLING AFFECT CAN BE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...VFR CIGS BECOME VFR CLEAR FM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 3Z AND 6Z. NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND GUST AROUND 20 KT
DIMINISHING TOWARD SUNRISE.

FRIDAY...VFR CLEAR WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS AOA 20000 FT LATE IN THE DAY.
LIGHT WIND.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING BY
LATER SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER ANY
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IT
MOVES THROUGH DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDING THE SCA ALONG LOWER DELAWARE BAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. WE MAY NEED TO ADD A SHORT FUSE SCA FOR UPPER DE BAY AROUND
05Z?  SCA CONTINUES ALONG THE ALTC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FOR FRIDAY, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE SOME FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING SATURDAY. THERE IS A
CHC FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE ARE ANTICIPATING SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY DURING
MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH A SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING WE HAVE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909

THE THE 9 PM FORECAST HAS KRDG AND KABE BREAKING THEIR RECORD LOW
FRIDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

IT APPEARS THAT READING AND ATLANTIC CITY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF GETTING TO THEIR RECORD LOW SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

RER`S POSTED FOR KILG AND KACY...BOTH 7.0 INCHES.

PHL HAD 7.5 AND ALLENTOWN 6.7.

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

FWIW...WATER EQUIVALENCE OF TOTAL SNOW DEPTH IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PA IS NOW WELL OVER 3 INCHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG  923
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE/O`HARA 923
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE/O`HARA 923
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 060219
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
919 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS HAVE EXITED ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHEAST RIDGES AND THOSE
AREAS WILL CLEAR NEXT 2-3 HOURS. HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS MOST
LOCATIONS 3-4 DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT READINGS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS REGION OVERNIGHT WITH LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLING...CLEAR SKIES AND SNOW PACK...BELOW ZERO READINGS
EXPECTED AREA WIDE. MIN FORECAST AT KPIT OF -2 TO -3 WOULD BE A
RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
CONTINUED WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR GARRETT COUNTY...ALTHOUGH WINDS
MAY GO CALM AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUN...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY CU TO POP. H850 WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST BY THE
END OF THE DAY...BUT WITH TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL HOVERING AROUND
-13...PLUS THE SNOW PACK...STILL EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH HEADS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHEAST U.S. REMAINS
IN A PERSISTENT BUT FLATTER TROUGH ALOFT. A COUPLE OF FAIRLY WEAK
IMPULSES DROP THROUGH THE NW FLOW THIS WEEKEND. THE FIRST ARRIVES
SATURDAY AND LINGERS INTO THE FOLLOWING EVENING...AND THE SECOND
MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT. NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSED WITH QPF
POTENTIAL FROM EITHER SYSTEM GIVEN THEIR NORTHERN ORIGINS AND
THEREFORE LESSER MOISTURE CONTENT. STILL THINK CHANCE POPS LOOK
APPROPRIATE FOR MAINLY AREAS EAST OF OHIO SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.
MOST PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW...BUT A LITTLE RAIN MAY MIX IN ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIP DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ANY POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATION LOOKS QUITE LIGHT. SUNDAY WILL
FEATURE A LULL IN ACTIVITY...BEFORE THE NEXT APPROACHES LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING BY DAY AND BELOW
BY NIGHT...EXACTLY WHAT IS NEEDED FOR A SLOW AND CONTROLLED MELT. CL

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
MIDWEEK. A SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMICS...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80. MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR SETUP BY MIDWEEK...BUT
AGAIN EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACTS AS ENERGY WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH.
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED WERE BASED MAINLY ON A BLEND OF EC AND
GEFS GUIDANCE,

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AS MID LEVEL
CLOUDS CLEAR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. CU RULE INDICATES JUST
SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CU FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A WEAK SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OHIO RIVER AT THE POINT IN
PITTSBURGH...AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR CHARLEROI AND
ELIZABETH ON THE MONONGAHELA RIVER. CRESTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED
AT THESE POINTS...AND LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1926.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1960.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...2 SET IN 1978.

PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...2 SET IN 1901.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...12 SET IN
1960...1969...AND 1972.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...5 SET IN 1960.

ALL TIME LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH AT
PITTSBURGH IS -1...SET ON...3/4/1943...3/9/1960...AND 3/2/1980.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 060219
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
919 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS HAVE EXITED ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHEAST RIDGES AND THOSE
AREAS WILL CLEAR NEXT 2-3 HOURS. HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS MOST
LOCATIONS 3-4 DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT READINGS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS REGION OVERNIGHT WITH LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLING...CLEAR SKIES AND SNOW PACK...BELOW ZERO READINGS
EXPECTED AREA WIDE. MIN FORECAST AT KPIT OF -2 TO -3 WOULD BE A
RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
CONTINUED WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR GARRETT COUNTY...ALTHOUGH WINDS
MAY GO CALM AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUN...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY CU TO POP. H850 WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST BY THE
END OF THE DAY...BUT WITH TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL HOVERING AROUND
-13...PLUS THE SNOW PACK...STILL EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH HEADS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHEAST U.S. REMAINS
IN A PERSISTENT BUT FLATTER TROUGH ALOFT. A COUPLE OF FAIRLY WEAK
IMPULSES DROP THROUGH THE NW FLOW THIS WEEKEND. THE FIRST ARRIVES
SATURDAY AND LINGERS INTO THE FOLLOWING EVENING...AND THE SECOND
MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT. NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSED WITH QPF
POTENTIAL FROM EITHER SYSTEM GIVEN THEIR NORTHERN ORIGINS AND
THEREFORE LESSER MOISTURE CONTENT. STILL THINK CHANCE POPS LOOK
APPROPRIATE FOR MAINLY AREAS EAST OF OHIO SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.
MOST PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW...BUT A LITTLE RAIN MAY MIX IN ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIP DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ANY POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATION LOOKS QUITE LIGHT. SUNDAY WILL
FEATURE A LULL IN ACTIVITY...BEFORE THE NEXT APPROACHES LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING BY DAY AND BELOW
BY NIGHT...EXACTLY WHAT IS NEEDED FOR A SLOW AND CONTROLLED MELT. CL

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
MIDWEEK. A SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMICS...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80. MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR SETUP BY MIDWEEK...BUT
AGAIN EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACTS AS ENERGY WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH.
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED WERE BASED MAINLY ON A BLEND OF EC AND
GEFS GUIDANCE,

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AS MID LEVEL
CLOUDS CLEAR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. CU RULE INDICATES JUST
SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CU FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A WEAK SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OHIO RIVER AT THE POINT IN
PITTSBURGH...AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR CHARLEROI AND
ELIZABETH ON THE MONONGAHELA RIVER. CRESTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED
AT THESE POINTS...AND LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1926.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1960.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...2 SET IN 1978.

PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...2 SET IN 1901.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...12 SET IN
1960...1969...AND 1972.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...5 SET IN 1960.

ALL TIME LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH AT
PITTSBURGH IS -1...SET ON...3/4/1943...3/9/1960...AND 3/2/1980.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 060219
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
919 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS HAVE EXITED ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHEAST RIDGES AND THOSE
AREAS WILL CLEAR NEXT 2-3 HOURS. HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS MOST
LOCATIONS 3-4 DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT READINGS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS REGION OVERNIGHT WITH LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLING...CLEAR SKIES AND SNOW PACK...BELOW ZERO READINGS
EXPECTED AREA WIDE. MIN FORECAST AT KPIT OF -2 TO -3 WOULD BE A
RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
CONTINUED WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR GARRETT COUNTY...ALTHOUGH WINDS
MAY GO CALM AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUN...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY CU TO POP. H850 WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST BY THE
END OF THE DAY...BUT WITH TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL HOVERING AROUND
-13...PLUS THE SNOW PACK...STILL EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH HEADS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHEAST U.S. REMAINS
IN A PERSISTENT BUT FLATTER TROUGH ALOFT. A COUPLE OF FAIRLY WEAK
IMPULSES DROP THROUGH THE NW FLOW THIS WEEKEND. THE FIRST ARRIVES
SATURDAY AND LINGERS INTO THE FOLLOWING EVENING...AND THE SECOND
MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT. NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSED WITH QPF
POTENTIAL FROM EITHER SYSTEM GIVEN THEIR NORTHERN ORIGINS AND
THEREFORE LESSER MOISTURE CONTENT. STILL THINK CHANCE POPS LOOK
APPROPRIATE FOR MAINLY AREAS EAST OF OHIO SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.
MOST PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW...BUT A LITTLE RAIN MAY MIX IN ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIP DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ANY POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATION LOOKS QUITE LIGHT. SUNDAY WILL
FEATURE A LULL IN ACTIVITY...BEFORE THE NEXT APPROACHES LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING BY DAY AND BELOW
BY NIGHT...EXACTLY WHAT IS NEEDED FOR A SLOW AND CONTROLLED MELT. CL

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
MIDWEEK. A SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMICS...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80. MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR SETUP BY MIDWEEK...BUT
AGAIN EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACTS AS ENERGY WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH.
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED WERE BASED MAINLY ON A BLEND OF EC AND
GEFS GUIDANCE,

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AS MID LEVEL
CLOUDS CLEAR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. CU RULE INDICATES JUST
SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CU FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A WEAK SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OHIO RIVER AT THE POINT IN
PITTSBURGH...AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR CHARLEROI AND
ELIZABETH ON THE MONONGAHELA RIVER. CRESTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED
AT THESE POINTS...AND LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1926.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1960.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...2 SET IN 1978.

PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...2 SET IN 1901.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...12 SET IN
1960...1969...AND 1972.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...5 SET IN 1960.

ALL TIME LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH AT
PITTSBURGH IS -1...SET ON...3/4/1943...3/9/1960...AND 3/2/1980.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 060219
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
919 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS HAVE EXITED ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHEAST RIDGES AND THOSE
AREAS WILL CLEAR NEXT 2-3 HOURS. HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS MOST
LOCATIONS 3-4 DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT READINGS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS REGION OVERNIGHT WITH LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLING...CLEAR SKIES AND SNOW PACK...BELOW ZERO READINGS
EXPECTED AREA WIDE. MIN FORECAST AT KPIT OF -2 TO -3 WOULD BE A
RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
CONTINUED WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR GARRETT COUNTY...ALTHOUGH WINDS
MAY GO CALM AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUN...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY CU TO POP. H850 WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST BY THE
END OF THE DAY...BUT WITH TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL HOVERING AROUND
-13...PLUS THE SNOW PACK...STILL EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH HEADS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHEAST U.S. REMAINS
IN A PERSISTENT BUT FLATTER TROUGH ALOFT. A COUPLE OF FAIRLY WEAK
IMPULSES DROP THROUGH THE NW FLOW THIS WEEKEND. THE FIRST ARRIVES
SATURDAY AND LINGERS INTO THE FOLLOWING EVENING...AND THE SECOND
MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT. NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSED WITH QPF
POTENTIAL FROM EITHER SYSTEM GIVEN THEIR NORTHERN ORIGINS AND
THEREFORE LESSER MOISTURE CONTENT. STILL THINK CHANCE POPS LOOK
APPROPRIATE FOR MAINLY AREAS EAST OF OHIO SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.
MOST PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW...BUT A LITTLE RAIN MAY MIX IN ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIP DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ANY POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATION LOOKS QUITE LIGHT. SUNDAY WILL
FEATURE A LULL IN ACTIVITY...BEFORE THE NEXT APPROACHES LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING BY DAY AND BELOW
BY NIGHT...EXACTLY WHAT IS NEEDED FOR A SLOW AND CONTROLLED MELT. CL

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
MIDWEEK. A SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMICS...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80. MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR SETUP BY MIDWEEK...BUT
AGAIN EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACTS AS ENERGY WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH.
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED WERE BASED MAINLY ON A BLEND OF EC AND
GEFS GUIDANCE,

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AS MID LEVEL
CLOUDS CLEAR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. CU RULE INDICATES JUST
SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CU FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A WEAK SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OHIO RIVER AT THE POINT IN
PITTSBURGH...AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR CHARLEROI AND
ELIZABETH ON THE MONONGAHELA RIVER. CRESTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED
AT THESE POINTS...AND LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1926.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1960.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...2 SET IN 1978.

PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...2 SET IN 1901.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...12 SET IN
1960...1969...AND 1972.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...5 SET IN 1960.

ALL TIME LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH AT
PITTSBURGH IS -1...SET ON...3/4/1943...3/9/1960...AND 3/2/1980.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 060219
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
919 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS HAVE EXITED ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHEAST RIDGES AND THOSE
AREAS WILL CLEAR NEXT 2-3 HOURS. HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS MOST
LOCATIONS 3-4 DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT READINGS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS REGION OVERNIGHT WITH LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLING...CLEAR SKIES AND SNOW PACK...BELOW ZERO READINGS
EXPECTED AREA WIDE. MIN FORECAST AT KPIT OF -2 TO -3 WOULD BE A
RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
CONTINUED WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR GARRETT COUNTY...ALTHOUGH WINDS
MAY GO CALM AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUN...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY CU TO POP. H850 WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST BY THE
END OF THE DAY...BUT WITH TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL HOVERING AROUND
-13...PLUS THE SNOW PACK...STILL EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH HEADS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHEAST U.S. REMAINS
IN A PERSISTENT BUT FLATTER TROUGH ALOFT. A COUPLE OF FAIRLY WEAK
IMPULSES DROP THROUGH THE NW FLOW THIS WEEKEND. THE FIRST ARRIVES
SATURDAY AND LINGERS INTO THE FOLLOWING EVENING...AND THE SECOND
MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT. NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSED WITH QPF
POTENTIAL FROM EITHER SYSTEM GIVEN THEIR NORTHERN ORIGINS AND
THEREFORE LESSER MOISTURE CONTENT. STILL THINK CHANCE POPS LOOK
APPROPRIATE FOR MAINLY AREAS EAST OF OHIO SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.
MOST PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW...BUT A LITTLE RAIN MAY MIX IN ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIP DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ANY POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATION LOOKS QUITE LIGHT. SUNDAY WILL
FEATURE A LULL IN ACTIVITY...BEFORE THE NEXT APPROACHES LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING BY DAY AND BELOW
BY NIGHT...EXACTLY WHAT IS NEEDED FOR A SLOW AND CONTROLLED MELT. CL

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
MIDWEEK. A SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMICS...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80. MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR SETUP BY MIDWEEK...BUT
AGAIN EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACTS AS ENERGY WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH.
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED WERE BASED MAINLY ON A BLEND OF EC AND
GEFS GUIDANCE,

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AS MID LEVEL
CLOUDS CLEAR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. CU RULE INDICATES JUST
SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CU FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A WEAK SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OHIO RIVER AT THE POINT IN
PITTSBURGH...AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR CHARLEROI AND
ELIZABETH ON THE MONONGAHELA RIVER. CRESTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED
AT THESE POINTS...AND LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1926.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1960.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...2 SET IN 1978.

PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...2 SET IN 1901.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...12 SET IN
1960...1969...AND 1972.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...5 SET IN 1960.

ALL TIME LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH AT
PITTSBURGH IS -1...SET ON...3/4/1943...3/9/1960...AND 3/2/1980.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 060219
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
919 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS HAVE EXITED ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHEAST RIDGES AND THOSE
AREAS WILL CLEAR NEXT 2-3 HOURS. HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS MOST
LOCATIONS 3-4 DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT READINGS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS REGION OVERNIGHT WITH LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLING...CLEAR SKIES AND SNOW PACK...BELOW ZERO READINGS
EXPECTED AREA WIDE. MIN FORECAST AT KPIT OF -2 TO -3 WOULD BE A
RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
CONTINUED WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR GARRETT COUNTY...ALTHOUGH WINDS
MAY GO CALM AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUN...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY CU TO POP. H850 WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST BY THE
END OF THE DAY...BUT WITH TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL HOVERING AROUND
-13...PLUS THE SNOW PACK...STILL EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH HEADS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHEAST U.S. REMAINS
IN A PERSISTENT BUT FLATTER TROUGH ALOFT. A COUPLE OF FAIRLY WEAK
IMPULSES DROP THROUGH THE NW FLOW THIS WEEKEND. THE FIRST ARRIVES
SATURDAY AND LINGERS INTO THE FOLLOWING EVENING...AND THE SECOND
MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT. NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSED WITH QPF
POTENTIAL FROM EITHER SYSTEM GIVEN THEIR NORTHERN ORIGINS AND
THEREFORE LESSER MOISTURE CONTENT. STILL THINK CHANCE POPS LOOK
APPROPRIATE FOR MAINLY AREAS EAST OF OHIO SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.
MOST PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW...BUT A LITTLE RAIN MAY MIX IN ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIP DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ANY POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATION LOOKS QUITE LIGHT. SUNDAY WILL
FEATURE A LULL IN ACTIVITY...BEFORE THE NEXT APPROACHES LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING BY DAY AND BELOW
BY NIGHT...EXACTLY WHAT IS NEEDED FOR A SLOW AND CONTROLLED MELT. CL

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
MIDWEEK. A SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMICS...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80. MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR SETUP BY MIDWEEK...BUT
AGAIN EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACTS AS ENERGY WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH.
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED WERE BASED MAINLY ON A BLEND OF EC AND
GEFS GUIDANCE,

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AS MID LEVEL
CLOUDS CLEAR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. CU RULE INDICATES JUST
SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CU FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A WEAK SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OHIO RIVER AT THE POINT IN
PITTSBURGH...AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR CHARLEROI AND
ELIZABETH ON THE MONONGAHELA RIVER. CRESTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED
AT THESE POINTS...AND LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1926.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1960.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...2 SET IN 1978.

PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...2 SET IN 1901.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...12 SET IN
1960...1969...AND 1972.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...5 SET IN 1960.

ALL TIME LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH AT
PITTSBURGH IS -1...SET ON...3/4/1943...3/9/1960...AND 3/2/1980.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KLWX 060109
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
809 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING TO THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE FINAL BAND OF HEAVY
SNOW HAS MOVED OUT OF ST. MARYS COUNTY AND INTO THE DELMARVA AND
SERN VA. SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW REMAINS ACROSS THE CWA...AND
WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...BUT ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE
MINIMAL.

MEAN LYR RH DROPS RAPIDLY OVNGT...WHICH SHUD ALLOW CLDS TO SCATTER
OUT. MEANWHILE THE DRY ARCTIC AMS WL CONT TO STREAM IN. KEPT A
MIN-T FCST THAT FOCUSED ON A MOS MEAN...LWRG BY A DEGF OR TWO FOR
THE FRESH SNOW AND CLRG SKIES. WHILE WINDS SHUD DIMINISH OVNGT...
DONT BELIEVE THEY WL OUTRIGHT DCPL. THAT COMBO PLACES OUTLYING
AREA OF CWFA...FM DC/BALT NWRN BURBS TO BLURDG WWD...AT THE
THRESHOLD FOR WIND CHILL ADVY. OPTED IN TO ALERT SNOW STORM
RECOVERY EFFORTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIPRES BLDS INTO CWFA FRIDAY. NRN STREAM S/WV ENERGY WL OVERRIDE
RDG...WHICH WL ERASE THE SUNNY START TO THE DAY. XPCT MOCLDY TO
PREVAIL DURING THE AFTN-EVE HRS.

THE THERMAL TROF WL BE CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE DAY. AS A
RESULT...FRI WL BE A COOLER DAY W/ MAXT IN THE MID-UPR 20S AND
MIN-T 10-15F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WHILE SOME WARMING BEGINS
SATURDAY...SNOW COVER WILL LIKELY TEMPER THIS TREND INITIALLY. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S NORTH AND
50S SOUTH.

LIGHT LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND
CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. RAISED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SUNDAY WILL FINALLY BE ABOVE FREEZING...EXCEPT IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WHERE UPPER 20S WILL BE MORE COMMON. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS REMAINING AOA FREEZING THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALSO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL. KEPT TUESDAY A LITTLE
COOLER THAN THE REST OF THE WEEK DUE TO POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER FROM
APPROACHING SYSTEM. STILL UNCLEAR IF THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT OUR
AREA OR SKIRT TO OUR SOUTH...FOR NOW LEFT SCHC POPS IN OUR FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEAVIEST SNOW HAS MOVED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS.
ONE FINAL AREA OF SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL LOWERED CIGS/VSBYS. CONDITIONS WILL
QUICKLY IMPROVE MID-LATE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD
THE TERMINALS. NORTH- NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. THE NORTH- NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE WATERS WITH GUSTS MAINLY
20-25KTS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW. HV SCA CONDS FOR ALL WATERS
TNGT...AND ADJUSTED CONTINUATION INTO FRI MRNG FOR THE BAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE WEEKEND...SO NOT EXPECTING
ANY MARINE CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ICE-INDUCED STREAM RISES HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. MANY OF THE STREAMS HAVE NOW CRESTED AND
ARE FALLING. IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT THERE IS AN ICE JAM ON THE
LOST/CACAPON RIVER IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA ABOVE GREAT CACAPON THAT
HAS NOT YET BROKEN...BUT WITH COLD AIR NOW BACK IN PLACE...IT MAY
NOT UNTIL TEMPERATURES WARM AGAIN...KEEPING RISES GRADUAL FOR NOW.

ALSO APPEARS THERE MAY BE SOME SORT OF ICE EFFECT ON GOOSE CREEK
BETWEEN EVERGREEN MILLS AND LANSDOWNE. THE CURRENT STAGE/FLOW AT THE
EVERGREEN MILLS GAUGE IS HIGHER THAN WOULD BE EXPECTED BASED ON
UPSTREAM SITES...AND STILL RISING. STILL A FEW FEET BELOW FLOOD
STAGE AT THIS TIME.

SINCE THERE ARE NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EVENTS AFTER TODAY FOR
AT LEAST A WEEK...THE MELT OF THE NEWLY-FALLEN SNOW SHOULD BE
GRADUAL. SO THE FLOOD THREAT FROM THAT SHOULD BE MINIMAL BUT WILL BE
MONITORED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR MDZ003>006-501>507.
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR VAZ025>031-040-501-503>508.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR WVZ050>053-055-501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540-541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530-531-535-
     536-538-539-542.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM UPDATE...KCS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 060109
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
809 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING TO THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE FINAL BAND OF HEAVY
SNOW HAS MOVED OUT OF ST. MARYS COUNTY AND INTO THE DELMARVA AND
SERN VA. SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW REMAINS ACROSS THE CWA...AND
WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...BUT ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE
MINIMAL.

MEAN LYR RH DROPS RAPIDLY OVNGT...WHICH SHUD ALLOW CLDS TO SCATTER
OUT. MEANWHILE THE DRY ARCTIC AMS WL CONT TO STREAM IN. KEPT A
MIN-T FCST THAT FOCUSED ON A MOS MEAN...LWRG BY A DEGF OR TWO FOR
THE FRESH SNOW AND CLRG SKIES. WHILE WINDS SHUD DIMINISH OVNGT...
DONT BELIEVE THEY WL OUTRIGHT DCPL. THAT COMBO PLACES OUTLYING
AREA OF CWFA...FM DC/BALT NWRN BURBS TO BLURDG WWD...AT THE
THRESHOLD FOR WIND CHILL ADVY. OPTED IN TO ALERT SNOW STORM
RECOVERY EFFORTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIPRES BLDS INTO CWFA FRIDAY. NRN STREAM S/WV ENERGY WL OVERRIDE
RDG...WHICH WL ERASE THE SUNNY START TO THE DAY. XPCT MOCLDY TO
PREVAIL DURING THE AFTN-EVE HRS.

THE THERMAL TROF WL BE CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE DAY. AS A
RESULT...FRI WL BE A COOLER DAY W/ MAXT IN THE MID-UPR 20S AND
MIN-T 10-15F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WHILE SOME WARMING BEGINS
SATURDAY...SNOW COVER WILL LIKELY TEMPER THIS TREND INITIALLY. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S NORTH AND
50S SOUTH.

LIGHT LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND
CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. RAISED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SUNDAY WILL FINALLY BE ABOVE FREEZING...EXCEPT IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WHERE UPPER 20S WILL BE MORE COMMON. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS REMAINING AOA FREEZING THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALSO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL. KEPT TUESDAY A LITTLE
COOLER THAN THE REST OF THE WEEK DUE TO POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER FROM
APPROACHING SYSTEM. STILL UNCLEAR IF THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT OUR
AREA OR SKIRT TO OUR SOUTH...FOR NOW LEFT SCHC POPS IN OUR FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEAVIEST SNOW HAS MOVED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS.
ONE FINAL AREA OF SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL LOWERED CIGS/VSBYS. CONDITIONS WILL
QUICKLY IMPROVE MID-LATE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD
THE TERMINALS. NORTH- NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. THE NORTH- NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE WATERS WITH GUSTS MAINLY
20-25KTS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW. HV SCA CONDS FOR ALL WATERS
TNGT...AND ADJUSTED CONTINUATION INTO FRI MRNG FOR THE BAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE WEEKEND...SO NOT EXPECTING
ANY MARINE CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ICE-INDUCED STREAM RISES HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. MANY OF THE STREAMS HAVE NOW CRESTED AND
ARE FALLING. IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT THERE IS AN ICE JAM ON THE
LOST/CACAPON RIVER IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA ABOVE GREAT CACAPON THAT
HAS NOT YET BROKEN...BUT WITH COLD AIR NOW BACK IN PLACE...IT MAY
NOT UNTIL TEMPERATURES WARM AGAIN...KEEPING RISES GRADUAL FOR NOW.

ALSO APPEARS THERE MAY BE SOME SORT OF ICE EFFECT ON GOOSE CREEK
BETWEEN EVERGREEN MILLS AND LANSDOWNE. THE CURRENT STAGE/FLOW AT THE
EVERGREEN MILLS GAUGE IS HIGHER THAN WOULD BE EXPECTED BASED ON
UPSTREAM SITES...AND STILL RISING. STILL A FEW FEET BELOW FLOOD
STAGE AT THIS TIME.

SINCE THERE ARE NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EVENTS AFTER TODAY FOR
AT LEAST A WEEK...THE MELT OF THE NEWLY-FALLEN SNOW SHOULD BE
GRADUAL. SO THE FLOOD THREAT FROM THAT SHOULD BE MINIMAL BUT WILL BE
MONITORED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR MDZ003>006-501>507.
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR VAZ025>031-040-501-503>508.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR WVZ050>053-055-501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540-541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530-531-535-
     536-538-539-542.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM UPDATE...KCS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 060109
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
809 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING TO THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE FINAL BAND OF HEAVY
SNOW HAS MOVED OUT OF ST. MARYS COUNTY AND INTO THE DELMARVA AND
SERN VA. SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW REMAINS ACROSS THE CWA...AND
WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...BUT ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE
MINIMAL.

MEAN LYR RH DROPS RAPIDLY OVNGT...WHICH SHUD ALLOW CLDS TO SCATTER
OUT. MEANWHILE THE DRY ARCTIC AMS WL CONT TO STREAM IN. KEPT A
MIN-T FCST THAT FOCUSED ON A MOS MEAN...LWRG BY A DEGF OR TWO FOR
THE FRESH SNOW AND CLRG SKIES. WHILE WINDS SHUD DIMINISH OVNGT...
DONT BELIEVE THEY WL OUTRIGHT DCPL. THAT COMBO PLACES OUTLYING
AREA OF CWFA...FM DC/BALT NWRN BURBS TO BLURDG WWD...AT THE
THRESHOLD FOR WIND CHILL ADVY. OPTED IN TO ALERT SNOW STORM
RECOVERY EFFORTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIPRES BLDS INTO CWFA FRIDAY. NRN STREAM S/WV ENERGY WL OVERRIDE
RDG...WHICH WL ERASE THE SUNNY START TO THE DAY. XPCT MOCLDY TO
PREVAIL DURING THE AFTN-EVE HRS.

THE THERMAL TROF WL BE CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE DAY. AS A
RESULT...FRI WL BE A COOLER DAY W/ MAXT IN THE MID-UPR 20S AND
MIN-T 10-15F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WHILE SOME WARMING BEGINS
SATURDAY...SNOW COVER WILL LIKELY TEMPER THIS TREND INITIALLY. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S NORTH AND
50S SOUTH.

LIGHT LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND
CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. RAISED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SUNDAY WILL FINALLY BE ABOVE FREEZING...EXCEPT IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WHERE UPPER 20S WILL BE MORE COMMON. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS REMAINING AOA FREEZING THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALSO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL. KEPT TUESDAY A LITTLE
COOLER THAN THE REST OF THE WEEK DUE TO POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER FROM
APPROACHING SYSTEM. STILL UNCLEAR IF THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT OUR
AREA OR SKIRT TO OUR SOUTH...FOR NOW LEFT SCHC POPS IN OUR FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEAVIEST SNOW HAS MOVED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS.
ONE FINAL AREA OF SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL LOWERED CIGS/VSBYS. CONDITIONS WILL
QUICKLY IMPROVE MID-LATE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD
THE TERMINALS. NORTH- NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. THE NORTH- NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE WATERS WITH GUSTS MAINLY
20-25KTS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW. HV SCA CONDS FOR ALL WATERS
TNGT...AND ADJUSTED CONTINUATION INTO FRI MRNG FOR THE BAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE WEEKEND...SO NOT EXPECTING
ANY MARINE CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ICE-INDUCED STREAM RISES HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. MANY OF THE STREAMS HAVE NOW CRESTED AND
ARE FALLING. IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT THERE IS AN ICE JAM ON THE
LOST/CACAPON RIVER IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA ABOVE GREAT CACAPON THAT
HAS NOT YET BROKEN...BUT WITH COLD AIR NOW BACK IN PLACE...IT MAY
NOT UNTIL TEMPERATURES WARM AGAIN...KEEPING RISES GRADUAL FOR NOW.

ALSO APPEARS THERE MAY BE SOME SORT OF ICE EFFECT ON GOOSE CREEK
BETWEEN EVERGREEN MILLS AND LANSDOWNE. THE CURRENT STAGE/FLOW AT THE
EVERGREEN MILLS GAUGE IS HIGHER THAN WOULD BE EXPECTED BASED ON
UPSTREAM SITES...AND STILL RISING. STILL A FEW FEET BELOW FLOOD
STAGE AT THIS TIME.

SINCE THERE ARE NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EVENTS AFTER TODAY FOR
AT LEAST A WEEK...THE MELT OF THE NEWLY-FALLEN SNOW SHOULD BE
GRADUAL. SO THE FLOOD THREAT FROM THAT SHOULD BE MINIMAL BUT WILL BE
MONITORED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR MDZ003>006-501>507.
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR VAZ025>031-040-501-503>508.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR WVZ050>053-055-501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540-541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530-531-535-
     536-538-539-542.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM UPDATE...KCS



000
FXUS61 KPHI 060102
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
802 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING, THEN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE
TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO
OUR NORTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
745 PM: CANCELLED MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF WARNING FROM MD THRU
CENTRAL DE AND SE NJ. AT 9 PM WILL EXPIRE SUSSEX COUNTY DE (BLOWING
SNOW DOWN IN S DE).

YOU SHOULD HAVE THE RER`S NOW AND THE 731 PNS HAS UPDATED WITH
MOST OF THE REPORTS. MORE WILL BE COMING AND UPDATING AROUND 9 PM
THIS EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE ONCE SKIES CLEAR. THIS SHOULD TAKE PLACE
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER THE SNOW ENDS GIVEN A STEEP DROP IN DEW
POINTS AND CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION. RECORD LOWS ARE
POSSIBLE, PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT ARE COMPOSED OF MET/MAV AND THE MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS WHICH HAS DONE WELL AT NIGHT WITH SNOW
COVER.

WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION,
WITH THE POCONOS SEEING WIND CHILLS WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY
THRESHOLD FOR A FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE LIMITED WINDOW AND MARGINAL
VALUES IN TERMS OF AND ADVISORY, WILL JUST CONTINUE MENTION IN THE
HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY BUT STILL
COLD. DID GO A TOUCH WARMER THAN MAV/MET GIVEN THE COOL DAYTIME
BIAS WITH SNOW COVER. OTHER ELEMENTS STRAIGHT MAV/MET. CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 MPH OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW, THIS FEATURE SHOULD AMPLIFY A LITTLE
FOR A TIME OR TWO. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS ENERGY EJECTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH A RIDGE POTENTIALLY BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.
THIS RESULTS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK.
WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT
WITH THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. WE THEN MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER A DRY AIRMASS RESULTS IN NO PRECIPITATION.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA HOWEVER ITS
CENTER SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL RETURN FLOW BEING ESTABLISHED AND AFTER A VERY COLD START
SATURDAY, SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES SUNDAY, THEN WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY. THIS
WILL DRIVE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING MONDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE AS MUCH OF THE LIFT
OCCURS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THERE COULD BE A SNOW SHOWER THOUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, THE AIRMASS
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MODIFY AS THE FLOW COMES MORE FROM THE
WEST AND NOT THE NORTH.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
PRESSURE APPEARS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH ONCE AGAIN, WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING MOSTLY TO OUR NORTHWEST. WHILE THE FLOW LOOKS FAIRLY
WEAK, ENOUGH WAA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR FURTHER
MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH MANY AREAS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ARRIVING LATE
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE
ALOFT IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA, WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM NEAR MAINE TO THE
GREAT LAKES THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE MUCH
MILDER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 50S. THE OCEAN AND
DELAWARE BAY ARE COLD AND IF THERE IS LIGHT ENOUGH FLOW, THEN A
COOLING AFFECT CAN BE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...VFR CIGS VFR CLEAR FM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN
3 AND 6 Z. NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND GUST 20 KT EARLY THEN DIMINISHES.

FRIDAY...VFR CLEAR WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS AOA 20000 FT LATE IN THE DAY.
LIGHT WIND.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING BY
LATER SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER ANY
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IT
MOVES THROUGH DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
ADDED AN SCA TO LOWER DELAWARE BAY AROUND 722 PM. SCA CONTINUES
ALONG THE ALTC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WILL REVIEW ALL THE SCA MATERIAL AT 9 PM.

FOR FRIDAY, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE SOME FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING SATURDAY. THERE IS A
CHC FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE ARE ANTICIPATING SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY DURING
MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH A SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING WE HAVE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909

THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

IT APPEARS THAT READING AND ATLANTIC CITY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF GETTING TO THEIR RECORD LOW SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

RER`S POSTED FOR KILG AND KACY...BOTH 7.0 INCHES.

PHL HAD 7.5 AND ALLENTOWN 6.7.

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

FWIW...WATER EQUIVALENCE OF TOTAL SNOW DEPTH IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PA IS NOW WELL OVER 3 INCHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GAINES 801
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/GORSE/O`HARA 801
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON/O`HARA
CLIMATE...801



000
FXUS61 KPHI 060102
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
802 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING, THEN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE
TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO
OUR NORTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
745 PM: CANCELLED MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF WARNING FROM MD THRU
CENTRAL DE AND SE NJ. AT 9 PM WILL EXPIRE SUSSEX COUNTY DE (BLOWING
SNOW DOWN IN S DE).

YOU SHOULD HAVE THE RER`S NOW AND THE 731 PNS HAS UPDATED WITH
MOST OF THE REPORTS. MORE WILL BE COMING AND UPDATING AROUND 9 PM
THIS EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE ONCE SKIES CLEAR. THIS SHOULD TAKE PLACE
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER THE SNOW ENDS GIVEN A STEEP DROP IN DEW
POINTS AND CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION. RECORD LOWS ARE
POSSIBLE, PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT ARE COMPOSED OF MET/MAV AND THE MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS WHICH HAS DONE WELL AT NIGHT WITH SNOW
COVER.

WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION,
WITH THE POCONOS SEEING WIND CHILLS WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY
THRESHOLD FOR A FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE LIMITED WINDOW AND MARGINAL
VALUES IN TERMS OF AND ADVISORY, WILL JUST CONTINUE MENTION IN THE
HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY BUT STILL
COLD. DID GO A TOUCH WARMER THAN MAV/MET GIVEN THE COOL DAYTIME
BIAS WITH SNOW COVER. OTHER ELEMENTS STRAIGHT MAV/MET. CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 MPH OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW, THIS FEATURE SHOULD AMPLIFY A LITTLE
FOR A TIME OR TWO. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS ENERGY EJECTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH A RIDGE POTENTIALLY BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.
THIS RESULTS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK.
WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT
WITH THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. WE THEN MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER A DRY AIRMASS RESULTS IN NO PRECIPITATION.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA HOWEVER ITS
CENTER SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL RETURN FLOW BEING ESTABLISHED AND AFTER A VERY COLD START
SATURDAY, SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES SUNDAY, THEN WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY. THIS
WILL DRIVE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING MONDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE AS MUCH OF THE LIFT
OCCURS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THERE COULD BE A SNOW SHOWER THOUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, THE AIRMASS
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MODIFY AS THE FLOW COMES MORE FROM THE
WEST AND NOT THE NORTH.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
PRESSURE APPEARS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH ONCE AGAIN, WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING MOSTLY TO OUR NORTHWEST. WHILE THE FLOW LOOKS FAIRLY
WEAK, ENOUGH WAA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR FURTHER
MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH MANY AREAS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ARRIVING LATE
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE
ALOFT IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA, WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM NEAR MAINE TO THE
GREAT LAKES THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE MUCH
MILDER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 50S. THE OCEAN AND
DELAWARE BAY ARE COLD AND IF THERE IS LIGHT ENOUGH FLOW, THEN A
COOLING AFFECT CAN BE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...VFR CIGS VFR CLEAR FM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN
3 AND 6 Z. NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND GUST 20 KT EARLY THEN DIMINISHES.

FRIDAY...VFR CLEAR WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS AOA 20000 FT LATE IN THE DAY.
LIGHT WIND.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING BY
LATER SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER ANY
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IT
MOVES THROUGH DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
ADDED AN SCA TO LOWER DELAWARE BAY AROUND 722 PM. SCA CONTINUES
ALONG THE ALTC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WILL REVIEW ALL THE SCA MATERIAL AT 9 PM.

FOR FRIDAY, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE SOME FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING SATURDAY. THERE IS A
CHC FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE ARE ANTICIPATING SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY DURING
MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH A SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING WE HAVE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909

THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

IT APPEARS THAT READING AND ATLANTIC CITY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF GETTING TO THEIR RECORD LOW SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

RER`S POSTED FOR KILG AND KACY...BOTH 7.0 INCHES.

PHL HAD 7.5 AND ALLENTOWN 6.7.

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

FWIW...WATER EQUIVALENCE OF TOTAL SNOW DEPTH IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PA IS NOW WELL OVER 3 INCHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GAINES 801
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/GORSE/O`HARA 801
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON/O`HARA
CLIMATE...801




000
FXUS61 KPHI 060102
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
802 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING, THEN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE
TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO
OUR NORTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
745 PM: CANCELLED MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF WARNING FROM MD THRU
CENTRAL DE AND SE NJ. AT 9 PM WILL EXPIRE SUSSEX COUNTY DE (BLOWING
SNOW DOWN IN S DE).

YOU SHOULD HAVE THE RER`S NOW AND THE 731 PNS HAS UPDATED WITH
MOST OF THE REPORTS. MORE WILL BE COMING AND UPDATING AROUND 9 PM
THIS EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE ONCE SKIES CLEAR. THIS SHOULD TAKE PLACE
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER THE SNOW ENDS GIVEN A STEEP DROP IN DEW
POINTS AND CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION. RECORD LOWS ARE
POSSIBLE, PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT ARE COMPOSED OF MET/MAV AND THE MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS WHICH HAS DONE WELL AT NIGHT WITH SNOW
COVER.

WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION,
WITH THE POCONOS SEEING WIND CHILLS WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY
THRESHOLD FOR A FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE LIMITED WINDOW AND MARGINAL
VALUES IN TERMS OF AND ADVISORY, WILL JUST CONTINUE MENTION IN THE
HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY BUT STILL
COLD. DID GO A TOUCH WARMER THAN MAV/MET GIVEN THE COOL DAYTIME
BIAS WITH SNOW COVER. OTHER ELEMENTS STRAIGHT MAV/MET. CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 MPH OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW, THIS FEATURE SHOULD AMPLIFY A LITTLE
FOR A TIME OR TWO. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS ENERGY EJECTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH A RIDGE POTENTIALLY BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.
THIS RESULTS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK.
WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT
WITH THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. WE THEN MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER A DRY AIRMASS RESULTS IN NO PRECIPITATION.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA HOWEVER ITS
CENTER SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL RETURN FLOW BEING ESTABLISHED AND AFTER A VERY COLD START
SATURDAY, SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES SUNDAY, THEN WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY. THIS
WILL DRIVE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING MONDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE AS MUCH OF THE LIFT
OCCURS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THERE COULD BE A SNOW SHOWER THOUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, THE AIRMASS
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MODIFY AS THE FLOW COMES MORE FROM THE
WEST AND NOT THE NORTH.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
PRESSURE APPEARS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH ONCE AGAIN, WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING MOSTLY TO OUR NORTHWEST. WHILE THE FLOW LOOKS FAIRLY
WEAK, ENOUGH WAA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR FURTHER
MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH MANY AREAS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ARRIVING LATE
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE
ALOFT IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA, WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM NEAR MAINE TO THE
GREAT LAKES THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE MUCH
MILDER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 50S. THE OCEAN AND
DELAWARE BAY ARE COLD AND IF THERE IS LIGHT ENOUGH FLOW, THEN A
COOLING AFFECT CAN BE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...VFR CIGS VFR CLEAR FM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN
3 AND 6 Z. NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND GUST 20 KT EARLY THEN DIMINISHES.

FRIDAY...VFR CLEAR WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS AOA 20000 FT LATE IN THE DAY.
LIGHT WIND.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING BY
LATER SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER ANY
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IT
MOVES THROUGH DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
ADDED AN SCA TO LOWER DELAWARE BAY AROUND 722 PM. SCA CONTINUES
ALONG THE ALTC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WILL REVIEW ALL THE SCA MATERIAL AT 9 PM.

FOR FRIDAY, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE SOME FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING SATURDAY. THERE IS A
CHC FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE ARE ANTICIPATING SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY DURING
MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH A SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING WE HAVE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909

THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

IT APPEARS THAT READING AND ATLANTIC CITY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF GETTING TO THEIR RECORD LOW SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

RER`S POSTED FOR KILG AND KACY...BOTH 7.0 INCHES.

PHL HAD 7.5 AND ALLENTOWN 6.7.

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

FWIW...WATER EQUIVALENCE OF TOTAL SNOW DEPTH IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PA IS NOW WELL OVER 3 INCHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GAINES 801
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/GORSE/O`HARA 801
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON/O`HARA
CLIMATE...801



000
FXUS61 KPHI 060102
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
802 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING, THEN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE
TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO
OUR NORTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
745 PM: CANCELLED MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF WARNING FROM MD THRU
CENTRAL DE AND SE NJ. AT 9 PM WILL EXPIRE SUSSEX COUNTY DE (BLOWING
SNOW DOWN IN S DE).

YOU SHOULD HAVE THE RER`S NOW AND THE 731 PNS HAS UPDATED WITH
MOST OF THE REPORTS. MORE WILL BE COMING AND UPDATING AROUND 9 PM
THIS EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE ONCE SKIES CLEAR. THIS SHOULD TAKE PLACE
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER THE SNOW ENDS GIVEN A STEEP DROP IN DEW
POINTS AND CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION. RECORD LOWS ARE
POSSIBLE, PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT ARE COMPOSED OF MET/MAV AND THE MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS WHICH HAS DONE WELL AT NIGHT WITH SNOW
COVER.

WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION,
WITH THE POCONOS SEEING WIND CHILLS WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY
THRESHOLD FOR A FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE LIMITED WINDOW AND MARGINAL
VALUES IN TERMS OF AND ADVISORY, WILL JUST CONTINUE MENTION IN THE
HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY BUT STILL
COLD. DID GO A TOUCH WARMER THAN MAV/MET GIVEN THE COOL DAYTIME
BIAS WITH SNOW COVER. OTHER ELEMENTS STRAIGHT MAV/MET. CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 MPH OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW, THIS FEATURE SHOULD AMPLIFY A LITTLE
FOR A TIME OR TWO. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS ENERGY EJECTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH A RIDGE POTENTIALLY BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.
THIS RESULTS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK.
WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT
WITH THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. WE THEN MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER A DRY AIRMASS RESULTS IN NO PRECIPITATION.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA HOWEVER ITS
CENTER SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL RETURN FLOW BEING ESTABLISHED AND AFTER A VERY COLD START
SATURDAY, SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES SUNDAY, THEN WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY. THIS
WILL DRIVE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING MONDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE AS MUCH OF THE LIFT
OCCURS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THERE COULD BE A SNOW SHOWER THOUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, THE AIRMASS
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MODIFY AS THE FLOW COMES MORE FROM THE
WEST AND NOT THE NORTH.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
PRESSURE APPEARS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH ONCE AGAIN, WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING MOSTLY TO OUR NORTHWEST. WHILE THE FLOW LOOKS FAIRLY
WEAK, ENOUGH WAA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR FURTHER
MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH MANY AREAS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ARRIVING LATE
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE
ALOFT IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA, WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM NEAR MAINE TO THE
GREAT LAKES THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE MUCH
MILDER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 50S. THE OCEAN AND
DELAWARE BAY ARE COLD AND IF THERE IS LIGHT ENOUGH FLOW, THEN A
COOLING AFFECT CAN BE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...VFR CIGS VFR CLEAR FM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN
3 AND 6 Z. NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND GUST 20 KT EARLY THEN DIMINISHES.

FRIDAY...VFR CLEAR WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS AOA 20000 FT LATE IN THE DAY.
LIGHT WIND.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING BY
LATER SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER ANY
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IT
MOVES THROUGH DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
ADDED AN SCA TO LOWER DELAWARE BAY AROUND 722 PM. SCA CONTINUES
ALONG THE ALTC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WILL REVIEW ALL THE SCA MATERIAL AT 9 PM.

FOR FRIDAY, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE SOME FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING SATURDAY. THERE IS A
CHC FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE ARE ANTICIPATING SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY DURING
MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH A SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING WE HAVE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909

THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

IT APPEARS THAT READING AND ATLANTIC CITY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF GETTING TO THEIR RECORD LOW SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

RER`S POSTED FOR KILG AND KACY...BOTH 7.0 INCHES.

PHL HAD 7.5 AND ALLENTOWN 6.7.

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

FWIW...WATER EQUIVALENCE OF TOTAL SNOW DEPTH IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PA IS NOW WELL OVER 3 INCHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GAINES 801
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/GORSE/O`HARA 801
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON/O`HARA
CLIMATE...801




000
FXUS61 KPHI 060032
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
732 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING, THEN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE
TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO
OUR NORTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
650 PM HEADLINE ADJUSTMENT: CANCELLED I-95 CORRIDOR; BUT EXTENDED
SE NJ THROUGH CENTRAL DE AND A PORTION OF MD E ASHORE THROUGH 01Z;
AND SUSSEX COUNTY DE HAD TO EXTEND THROUGH 02Z, WHERE TOO MUCH
SNOW ON RADAR.  ALL PRODUCTS POSTED.

CONTINUED MODIFIED CALL TO ACTION FOR MORE SAFETY ON SNOW REMOVAL.

TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE ONCE SKIES CLEAR. THIS SHOULD TAKE PLACE
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER THE SNOW ENDS GIVEN A STEEP DROP IN DEW
POINTS AND CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION. RECORD LOWS ARE
POSSIBLE, PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT ARE COMPOSED OF MET/MAV AND THE MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS WHICH HAS DONE WELL AT NIGHT WITH SNOW
COVER.

WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION,
WITH THE POCONOS SEEING WIND CHILLS WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY
THRESHOLD FOR A FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE LIMITED WINDOW AND MARGINAL
VALUES IN TERMS OF AND ADVISORY, WILL JUST CONTINUE MENTION IN THE
HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY BUT STILL
COLD. DID GO A TOUCH WARMER THAN MAV/MET GIVEN THE COOL DAYTIME
BIAS WITH SNOW COVER. OTHER ELEMENTS STRAIGHT MAV/MET. CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 MPH OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW, THIS FEATURE SHOULD AMPLIFY A LITTLE
FOR A TIME OR TWO. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS ENERGY EJECTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH A RIDGE POTENTIALLY BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.
THIS RESULTS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK.
WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT
WITH THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. WE THEN MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER A DRY AIRMASS RESULTS IN NO PRECIPITATION.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA HOWEVER ITS
CENTER SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL RETURN FLOW BEING ESTABLISHED AND AFTER A VERY COLD START
SATURDAY, SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES SUNDAY, THEN WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY. THIS
WILL DRIVE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING MONDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE AS MUCH OF THE LIFT
OCCURS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THERE COULD BE A SNOW SHOWER THOUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, THE AIRMASS
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MODIFY AS THE FLOW COMES MORE FROM THE
WEST AND NOT THE NORTH.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
PRESSURE APPEARS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH ONCE AGAIN, WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING MOSTLY TO OUR NORTHWEST. WHILE THE FLOW LOOKS FAIRLY
WEAK, ENOUGH WAA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR FURTHER
MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH MANY AREAS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ARRIVING LATE
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE
ALOFT IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA, WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM NEAR MAINE TO THE
GREAT LAKES THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE MUCH
MILDER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 50S. THE OCEAN AND
DELAWARE BAY ARE COLD AND IF THERE IS LIGHT ENOUGH FLOW, THEN A
COOLING AFFECT CAN BE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...MVFR SNOW AT KMIV AND KACY ENDS BY 01Z/6 FOLLOWED BY VFR
CIGS FOR A FEW HRS THEN THEN VFR CLEAR AFTER 05Z. NORTH- NORTHWEST
WIND GUST 20 KT EARLY THEN DIMINISHES. FOR THE REMAINING TAF SITES
VFR CIGS THEN BECOMING VFR CLEAR 02Z-04Z.

FRIDAY...VFR CLEAR WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS AOA 20000 FT LATE IN THE
DAY. LIGHT WIND.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING BY
LATER SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER ANY
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IT
MOVES THROUGH DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
ADDED AN SCA TO LOWER DELAWARE BAY AROUND 722 PM. SCA CONTINUES
ALONG THE ALTC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WILL REVIEW ALL THE SCA MATERIAL AT 9 PM.

FOR FRIDAY, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE SOME FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING SATURDAY. THERE IS A
CHC FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE ARE ANTICIPATING SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY DURING
MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH A SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING WE HAVE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909

THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

IT APPEARS THAT READING AND ATLANTIC CITY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF GETTING TO THEIR RECORD LOW SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

ANOTHER RECORD EVENT REPORT WILL UPDATE AROUND 745 PM. KACY IS
ALREADY POSTED. KILG NEEDS AN UPDATE FOR 7 TOTAL.

PHL HAD 7.5 AND ALLENTOWN 6.7.

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

FWIW...WATER EQUIVALENCE OF TOTAL SNOW DEPTH IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PA IS NOW WELL OVER 3 INCHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ020>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DEZ002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ015-
     019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GAINES 732
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/GORSE/O`HARA 732
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON/O`HARA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 060032
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
732 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING, THEN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE
TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO
OUR NORTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
650 PM HEADLINE ADJUSTMENT: CANCELLED I-95 CORRIDOR; BUT EXTENDED
SE NJ THROUGH CENTRAL DE AND A PORTION OF MD E ASHORE THROUGH 01Z;
AND SUSSEX COUNTY DE HAD TO EXTEND THROUGH 02Z, WHERE TOO MUCH
SNOW ON RADAR.  ALL PRODUCTS POSTED.

CONTINUED MODIFIED CALL TO ACTION FOR MORE SAFETY ON SNOW REMOVAL.

TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE ONCE SKIES CLEAR. THIS SHOULD TAKE PLACE
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER THE SNOW ENDS GIVEN A STEEP DROP IN DEW
POINTS AND CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION. RECORD LOWS ARE
POSSIBLE, PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT ARE COMPOSED OF MET/MAV AND THE MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS WHICH HAS DONE WELL AT NIGHT WITH SNOW
COVER.

WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION,
WITH THE POCONOS SEEING WIND CHILLS WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY
THRESHOLD FOR A FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE LIMITED WINDOW AND MARGINAL
VALUES IN TERMS OF AND ADVISORY, WILL JUST CONTINUE MENTION IN THE
HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY BUT STILL
COLD. DID GO A TOUCH WARMER THAN MAV/MET GIVEN THE COOL DAYTIME
BIAS WITH SNOW COVER. OTHER ELEMENTS STRAIGHT MAV/MET. CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 MPH OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW, THIS FEATURE SHOULD AMPLIFY A LITTLE
FOR A TIME OR TWO. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS ENERGY EJECTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH A RIDGE POTENTIALLY BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.
THIS RESULTS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK.
WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT
WITH THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. WE THEN MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER A DRY AIRMASS RESULTS IN NO PRECIPITATION.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA HOWEVER ITS
CENTER SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL RETURN FLOW BEING ESTABLISHED AND AFTER A VERY COLD START
SATURDAY, SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES SUNDAY, THEN WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY. THIS
WILL DRIVE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING MONDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE AS MUCH OF THE LIFT
OCCURS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THERE COULD BE A SNOW SHOWER THOUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, THE AIRMASS
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MODIFY AS THE FLOW COMES MORE FROM THE
WEST AND NOT THE NORTH.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
PRESSURE APPEARS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH ONCE AGAIN, WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING MOSTLY TO OUR NORTHWEST. WHILE THE FLOW LOOKS FAIRLY
WEAK, ENOUGH WAA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR FURTHER
MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH MANY AREAS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ARRIVING LATE
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE
ALOFT IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA, WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM NEAR MAINE TO THE
GREAT LAKES THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE MUCH
MILDER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 50S. THE OCEAN AND
DELAWARE BAY ARE COLD AND IF THERE IS LIGHT ENOUGH FLOW, THEN A
COOLING AFFECT CAN BE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...MVFR SNOW AT KMIV AND KACY ENDS BY 01Z/6 FOLLOWED BY VFR
CIGS FOR A FEW HRS THEN THEN VFR CLEAR AFTER 05Z. NORTH- NORTHWEST
WIND GUST 20 KT EARLY THEN DIMINISHES. FOR THE REMAINING TAF SITES
VFR CIGS THEN BECOMING VFR CLEAR 02Z-04Z.

FRIDAY...VFR CLEAR WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS AOA 20000 FT LATE IN THE
DAY. LIGHT WIND.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING BY
LATER SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER ANY
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IT
MOVES THROUGH DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
ADDED AN SCA TO LOWER DELAWARE BAY AROUND 722 PM. SCA CONTINUES
ALONG THE ALTC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WILL REVIEW ALL THE SCA MATERIAL AT 9 PM.

FOR FRIDAY, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE SOME FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING SATURDAY. THERE IS A
CHC FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE ARE ANTICIPATING SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY DURING
MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH A SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING WE HAVE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909

THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

IT APPEARS THAT READING AND ATLANTIC CITY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF GETTING TO THEIR RECORD LOW SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

ANOTHER RECORD EVENT REPORT WILL UPDATE AROUND 745 PM. KACY IS
ALREADY POSTED. KILG NEEDS AN UPDATE FOR 7 TOTAL.

PHL HAD 7.5 AND ALLENTOWN 6.7.

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

FWIW...WATER EQUIVALENCE OF TOTAL SNOW DEPTH IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PA IS NOW WELL OVER 3 INCHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ020>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DEZ002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ015-
     019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GAINES 732
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/GORSE/O`HARA 732
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON/O`HARA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 060032
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
732 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING, THEN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE
TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO
OUR NORTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
650 PM HEADLINE ADJUSTMENT: CANCELLED I-95 CORRIDOR; BUT EXTENDED
SE NJ THROUGH CENTRAL DE AND A PORTION OF MD E ASHORE THROUGH 01Z;
AND SUSSEX COUNTY DE HAD TO EXTEND THROUGH 02Z, WHERE TOO MUCH
SNOW ON RADAR.  ALL PRODUCTS POSTED.

CONTINUED MODIFIED CALL TO ACTION FOR MORE SAFETY ON SNOW REMOVAL.

TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE ONCE SKIES CLEAR. THIS SHOULD TAKE PLACE
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER THE SNOW ENDS GIVEN A STEEP DROP IN DEW
POINTS AND CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION. RECORD LOWS ARE
POSSIBLE, PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT ARE COMPOSED OF MET/MAV AND THE MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS WHICH HAS DONE WELL AT NIGHT WITH SNOW
COVER.

WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION,
WITH THE POCONOS SEEING WIND CHILLS WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY
THRESHOLD FOR A FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE LIMITED WINDOW AND MARGINAL
VALUES IN TERMS OF AND ADVISORY, WILL JUST CONTINUE MENTION IN THE
HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY BUT STILL
COLD. DID GO A TOUCH WARMER THAN MAV/MET GIVEN THE COOL DAYTIME
BIAS WITH SNOW COVER. OTHER ELEMENTS STRAIGHT MAV/MET. CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 MPH OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW, THIS FEATURE SHOULD AMPLIFY A LITTLE
FOR A TIME OR TWO. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS ENERGY EJECTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH A RIDGE POTENTIALLY BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.
THIS RESULTS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK.
WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT
WITH THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. WE THEN MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER A DRY AIRMASS RESULTS IN NO PRECIPITATION.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA HOWEVER ITS
CENTER SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL RETURN FLOW BEING ESTABLISHED AND AFTER A VERY COLD START
SATURDAY, SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES SUNDAY, THEN WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY. THIS
WILL DRIVE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING MONDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE AS MUCH OF THE LIFT
OCCURS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THERE COULD BE A SNOW SHOWER THOUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, THE AIRMASS
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MODIFY AS THE FLOW COMES MORE FROM THE
WEST AND NOT THE NORTH.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
PRESSURE APPEARS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH ONCE AGAIN, WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING MOSTLY TO OUR NORTHWEST. WHILE THE FLOW LOOKS FAIRLY
WEAK, ENOUGH WAA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR FURTHER
MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH MANY AREAS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ARRIVING LATE
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE
ALOFT IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA, WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM NEAR MAINE TO THE
GREAT LAKES THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE MUCH
MILDER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 50S. THE OCEAN AND
DELAWARE BAY ARE COLD AND IF THERE IS LIGHT ENOUGH FLOW, THEN A
COOLING AFFECT CAN BE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...MVFR SNOW AT KMIV AND KACY ENDS BY 01Z/6 FOLLOWED BY VFR
CIGS FOR A FEW HRS THEN THEN VFR CLEAR AFTER 05Z. NORTH- NORTHWEST
WIND GUST 20 KT EARLY THEN DIMINISHES. FOR THE REMAINING TAF SITES
VFR CIGS THEN BECOMING VFR CLEAR 02Z-04Z.

FRIDAY...VFR CLEAR WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS AOA 20000 FT LATE IN THE
DAY. LIGHT WIND.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING BY
LATER SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER ANY
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IT
MOVES THROUGH DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
ADDED AN SCA TO LOWER DELAWARE BAY AROUND 722 PM. SCA CONTINUES
ALONG THE ALTC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WILL REVIEW ALL THE SCA MATERIAL AT 9 PM.

FOR FRIDAY, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE SOME FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING SATURDAY. THERE IS A
CHC FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE ARE ANTICIPATING SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY DURING
MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH A SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING WE HAVE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909

THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

IT APPEARS THAT READING AND ATLANTIC CITY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF GETTING TO THEIR RECORD LOW SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

ANOTHER RECORD EVENT REPORT WILL UPDATE AROUND 745 PM. KACY IS
ALREADY POSTED. KILG NEEDS AN UPDATE FOR 7 TOTAL.

PHL HAD 7.5 AND ALLENTOWN 6.7.

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

FWIW...WATER EQUIVALENCE OF TOTAL SNOW DEPTH IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PA IS NOW WELL OVER 3 INCHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ020>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DEZ002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ015-
     019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GAINES 732
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/GORSE/O`HARA 732
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON/O`HARA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 060032
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
732 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING, THEN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE
TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO
OUR NORTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
650 PM HEADLINE ADJUSTMENT: CANCELLED I-95 CORRIDOR; BUT EXTENDED
SE NJ THROUGH CENTRAL DE AND A PORTION OF MD E ASHORE THROUGH 01Z;
AND SUSSEX COUNTY DE HAD TO EXTEND THROUGH 02Z, WHERE TOO MUCH
SNOW ON RADAR.  ALL PRODUCTS POSTED.

CONTINUED MODIFIED CALL TO ACTION FOR MORE SAFETY ON SNOW REMOVAL.

TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE ONCE SKIES CLEAR. THIS SHOULD TAKE PLACE
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER THE SNOW ENDS GIVEN A STEEP DROP IN DEW
POINTS AND CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION. RECORD LOWS ARE
POSSIBLE, PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT ARE COMPOSED OF MET/MAV AND THE MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS WHICH HAS DONE WELL AT NIGHT WITH SNOW
COVER.

WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION,
WITH THE POCONOS SEEING WIND CHILLS WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY
THRESHOLD FOR A FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE LIMITED WINDOW AND MARGINAL
VALUES IN TERMS OF AND ADVISORY, WILL JUST CONTINUE MENTION IN THE
HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY BUT STILL
COLD. DID GO A TOUCH WARMER THAN MAV/MET GIVEN THE COOL DAYTIME
BIAS WITH SNOW COVER. OTHER ELEMENTS STRAIGHT MAV/MET. CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 MPH OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW, THIS FEATURE SHOULD AMPLIFY A LITTLE
FOR A TIME OR TWO. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS ENERGY EJECTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH A RIDGE POTENTIALLY BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.
THIS RESULTS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK.
WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT
WITH THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. WE THEN MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER A DRY AIRMASS RESULTS IN NO PRECIPITATION.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA HOWEVER ITS
CENTER SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL RETURN FLOW BEING ESTABLISHED AND AFTER A VERY COLD START
SATURDAY, SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES SUNDAY, THEN WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY. THIS
WILL DRIVE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING MONDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE AS MUCH OF THE LIFT
OCCURS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THERE COULD BE A SNOW SHOWER THOUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, THE AIRMASS
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MODIFY AS THE FLOW COMES MORE FROM THE
WEST AND NOT THE NORTH.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
PRESSURE APPEARS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH ONCE AGAIN, WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING MOSTLY TO OUR NORTHWEST. WHILE THE FLOW LOOKS FAIRLY
WEAK, ENOUGH WAA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR FURTHER
MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH MANY AREAS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ARRIVING LATE
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE
ALOFT IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA, WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM NEAR MAINE TO THE
GREAT LAKES THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE MUCH
MILDER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 50S. THE OCEAN AND
DELAWARE BAY ARE COLD AND IF THERE IS LIGHT ENOUGH FLOW, THEN A
COOLING AFFECT CAN BE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...MVFR SNOW AT KMIV AND KACY ENDS BY 01Z/6 FOLLOWED BY VFR
CIGS FOR A FEW HRS THEN THEN VFR CLEAR AFTER 05Z. NORTH- NORTHWEST
WIND GUST 20 KT EARLY THEN DIMINISHES. FOR THE REMAINING TAF SITES
VFR CIGS THEN BECOMING VFR CLEAR 02Z-04Z.

FRIDAY...VFR CLEAR WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS AOA 20000 FT LATE IN THE
DAY. LIGHT WIND.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING BY
LATER SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER ANY
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IT
MOVES THROUGH DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
ADDED AN SCA TO LOWER DELAWARE BAY AROUND 722 PM. SCA CONTINUES
ALONG THE ALTC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WILL REVIEW ALL THE SCA MATERIAL AT 9 PM.

FOR FRIDAY, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE SOME FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING SATURDAY. THERE IS A
CHC FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE ARE ANTICIPATING SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY DURING
MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH A SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING WE HAVE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909

THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

IT APPEARS THAT READING AND ATLANTIC CITY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF GETTING TO THEIR RECORD LOW SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

ANOTHER RECORD EVENT REPORT WILL UPDATE AROUND 745 PM. KACY IS
ALREADY POSTED. KILG NEEDS AN UPDATE FOR 7 TOTAL.

PHL HAD 7.5 AND ALLENTOWN 6.7.

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

FWIW...WATER EQUIVALENCE OF TOTAL SNOW DEPTH IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PA IS NOW WELL OVER 3 INCHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ020>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DEZ002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ015-
     019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GAINES 732
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/GORSE/O`HARA 732
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON/O`HARA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 060013
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
713 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...USHERING IN
MARKEDLY COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
GRADUALLY MODERATING...MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE IN
THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LEADING BATCH OF PCPN (MAINLY RAIN) NOW EXITING THE COAST WITH
SCNDRY AREA OF PCPN MOVG SE ACROSS THE FA ON A LINE FROM SBY-RIC-
AVC. COLD AIR SURGE SEEN WITH THIS BATCH OF PCPN AS TMPS FALL INTO
THE 20S ALONG WITH A GUSTY N WIND AT 15-30 MPH. XPCT MAINLY SNOW
MIXED WITH SLEET WITH UP TO 1 ADDNTL INCH PSBL AS IT MOVES SE OVR
THE NEXT 2-3 HRS.

WILL KEEP ALL ADVSRYS / WARNGS GOING FOR A FEW MORE HRS AS THE
PCPN GRDLY COMES TO AN END. WILL LIKEY REPLACE HEADLINES WITH
SPS`S FOR ICY CONDITIONS AS SKIES GRDLY CLR AND TMPS FALL INTO THE
TEENS.

LOWS 10-15 NORTH...15-20 SOUTH. WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR 0 ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

SEE LATEST PNSAKQ / LSRAKQ FOR SNOW / ICE TOTALS FROM TODAYS STORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE/FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

COLD/DRY AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE LOCAL AREA FRI AS 1030+MB ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. CAA WANES...BUT
NOT BEFORE H85 TEMPS LEVEL OFF BTWN -4 AND -8C. GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE HIGHS IN THE 25-30 DEG RANGE...BUT THICKNESSES YIELD
TEMPS IN THE MID 30S. HAVE KEPT WITH PERSISTENCE OF GOING ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. UPPER 20S
INTERIOR MD ERN SHORE. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN
THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR W TO
PARTLY CLOUDY E. NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION FRI
NIGHT...RESULTING IN LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED COASTAL BOUNDARY
FRI NIGHT...BUT REMAINING OFFSHORE THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. COLD FRI NIGHT WITH WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS.

ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE
SE STATES. SWLY RETURN FLOW COMMENCES SAT...RESULTING IN MODERATING
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND TEMPS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO REBOUND NICELY
SAT...WARMING INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S
COASTAL AREAS. SKIES AVG MOSTLY CLEAR. NOT AS COLD SAT NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. WARMER SUN WITH HIGHS NEAR
NORMAL...MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S COASTAL AREAS. COLD SAT
MORNING WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/CMC/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND THESE MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR. MORE OF A SPLIT/ZONAL
PATTERN WILL AFFECT THE CNTRL/ERN U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD
RESULTING IN NEAR OR SLGTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACRS THE FCST AREA.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACRS THE REGION SUN NGT INTO MON MORNG
POSSIBLY TRIGGERING ISLTD RAIN SHOWERS. MON NGT INTO TUE NGT...SFC
HI PRES WILL BE SLIDING ACRS EXTRM NRN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...WHILE WEAK LO PRES WILL BE MOVING FM THE GULF OF MEXICO
ENE AND OFF THE SE CST. AS A RESULT...SOME DEEPER LO LVL MOISTURE
WILL LIFT NWRD INTO AT LEAST SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...SO HAVE
SLGT (15-20%) TO SML CHC (30%) POPS FOR NOW. MAINLY DRY WX...EXCEPT
FOR MAYBE SLGT CHC OVR NE NC COUNTIES...FOR WED AFTN THRU THU AS
HI PRES BLDS FARTHER S. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 30S TO
LWR 40S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 40S TO UPR 50S MON
AND TUE...AND IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MIXTURE OF SLEET/SNOW NW OF KRIC WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WINTERY MIX WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW FM NW TO NE DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE DAY. IFR/LIFR OVER ALL TAF SITES WITH THE PCPN THROUGH
TONIGHT. TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED
AT RIC AND SBY WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES OR LESS AT THE SE TAF SITES.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FM THE N MUCH OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...PCPN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND
VFR CONDS RETURN. IMPROVING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
LATE THIS AFTN...ONE LO PRES AREA WAS OFF THE VA/NC CST WHILE A
SECOND LO PRES SYSTEM WAS ALONG THE SC CST. THESE LOWS WILL MOVE
NE ALNG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OUT TO SEA TNGT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNG. SCA`S AND GALE WARNGS REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO FRI MORNG OR
THRU FRI AFTN...DUE TO STRONG N WINDS. WAVES OVER THE CHES BAY
WILL BLD TO 3-5 FT...WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS BLDNG TO 6-11 FT.
CALMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI NGT THRU SUN...AS HI PRES BLDS OVR
THE AREA THEN SLIDES OFFSHR.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ012>017-
     030>032-102.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     VAZ060>062-065>073-077>094-099-100.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ048-049-
     063-064-074>076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ095>098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ632>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630-631-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...TMG






000
FXUS61 KLWX 060013
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
713 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING TO THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONGEST BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO EXIT ST. MARYS COUNTY SOON.
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MD...EASTERN
WV AND WRN VA. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. MINOR ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE...UP TO AN INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS.
ALLOWED WINTER STORM WARNING TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 7PM FOR ALL
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND ACROSS NRN MD. REST
OF THE WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT LOOKS ON TRACK TO EXPIRE ON
TIME OR POSSIBLY EARLY OVER THE REST OF THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO
EVALUATE.

MEAN LYR RH DROPS RAPIDLY OVNGT...WHICH SHUD ALLOW CLDS TO SCATTER
OUT. MEANWHILE THE DRY ARCTIC AMS WL CONT TO STREAM IN. KEPT A
MIN-T FCST THAT FOCUSED ON A MOS MEAN...LWRG BY A DEGF OR TWO FOR
THE FRESH SNOW AND CLRG SKIES. WHILE WINDS SHUD DIMINISH OVNGT...
DONT BELIEVE THEY WL OUTRIGHT DCPL. THAT COMBO PLACES OUTLYING
AREA OF CWFA...FM DC/BALT NWRN BURBS TO BLURDG WWD...AT THE
THRESHOLD FOR WIND CHILL ADVY. OPTED IN TO ALERT SNOW STORM
RECOVERY EFFORTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIPRES BLDS INTO CWFA FRIDAY. NRN STREAM S/WV ENERGY WL OVERRIDE
RDG...WHICH WL ERASE THE SUNNY START TO THE DAY. XPCT MOCLDY TO
PREVAIL DURING THE AFTN-EVE HRS.

THE THERMAL TROF WL BE CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE DAY. AS A
RESULT...FRI WL BE A COOLER DAY W/ MAXT IN THE MID-UPR 20S AND
MIN-T 10-15F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WHILE SOME WARMING BEGINS
SATURDAY...SNOW COVER WILL LIKELY TEMPER THIS TREND INITIALLY. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S NORTH AND
50S SOUTH.

LIGHT LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND
CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. RAISED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SUNDAY WILL FINALLY BE ABOVE FREEZING...EXCEPT IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WHERE UPPER 20S WILL BE MORE COMMON. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS REMAINING AOA FREEZING THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALSO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL. KEPT TUESDAY A LITTLE
COOLER THAN THE REST OF THE WEEK DUE TO POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER FROM
APPROACHING SYSTEM. STILL UNCLEAR IF THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT OUR
AREA OR SKIRT TO OUR SOUTH...FOR NOW LEFT SCHC POPS IN OUR FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEAVIEST SNOW HAS MOVED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS.
ONE FINAL AREA OF SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL LOWERED CIGS/VSBYS. CONDITIONS WILL
QUICKLY IMPROVE MID-LATE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD
THE TERMINALS. NORTH- NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. THE NORTH- NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE WATERS WITH GUSTS MAINLY
20-25KTS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW. HV SCA CONDS FOR ALL WATERS
TNGT...AND ADJUSTED CONTINUATION INTO FRI MRNG FOR THE BAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE WEEKEND...SO NOT EXPECTING
ANY MARINE CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ICE-INDUCED STREAM RISES HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. MANY OF THE STREAMS HAVE NOW CRESTED AND
ARE FALLING. IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT THERE IS AN ICE JAM ON THE
LOST/CACAPON RIVER IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA ABOVE GREAT CACAPON THAT
HAS NOT YET BROKEN...BUT WITH COLD AIR NOW BACK IN PLACE...IT MAY
NOT UNTIL TEMPERATURES WARM AGAIN...KEEPING RISES GRADUAL FOR NOW.

ALSO APPEARS THERE MAY BE SOME SORT OF ICE EFFECT ON GOOSE CREEK
BETWEEN EVERGREEN MILLS AND LANSDOWNE. THE CURRENT STAGE/FLOW AT THE
EVERGREEN MILLS GAUGE IS HIGHER THAN WOULD BE EXPECTED BASED ON
UPSTREAM SITES...AND STILL RISING. STILL A FEW FEET BELOW FLOOD
STAGE AT THIS TIME.

SINCE THERE ARE NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EVENTS AFTER TODAY FOR
AT LEAST A WEEK...THE MELT OF THE NEWLY-FALLEN SNOW SHOULD BE
GRADUAL. SO THE FLOOD THREAT FROM THAT SHOULD BE MINIMAL BUT WILL BE
MONITORED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DCZ001.
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR MDZ003>006-501>507.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ013-
     014-016-018.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ017.
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR VAZ025>031-040-501-503>508.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ038-
     039-050>055-502.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ036-
     037-056-057.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR WVZ050>053-055-501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530-531-535-
     536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...KCS/HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...BJL/KCS/MSE
MARINE...MSE/HTS/KCS
HYDROLOGY...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 060013
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
713 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...USHERING IN
MARKEDLY COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
GRADUALLY MODERATING...MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE IN
THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LEADING BATCH OF PCPN (MAINLY RAIN) NOW EXITING THE COAST WITH
SCNDRY AREA OF PCPN MOVG SE ACROSS THE FA ON A LINE FROM SBY-RIC-
AVC. COLD AIR SURGE SEEN WITH THIS BATCH OF PCPN AS TMPS FALL INTO
THE 20S ALONG WITH A GUSTY N WIND AT 15-30 MPH. XPCT MAINLY SNOW
MIXED WITH SLEET WITH UP TO 1 ADDNTL INCH PSBL AS IT MOVES SE OVR
THE NEXT 2-3 HRS.

WILL KEEP ALL ADVSRYS / WARNGS GOING FOR A FEW MORE HRS AS THE
PCPN GRDLY COMES TO AN END. WILL LIKEY REPLACE HEADLINES WITH
SPS`S FOR ICY CONDITIONS AS SKIES GRDLY CLR AND TMPS FALL INTO THE
TEENS.

LOWS 10-15 NORTH...15-20 SOUTH. WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR 0 ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

SEE LATEST PNSAKQ / LSRAKQ FOR SNOW / ICE TOTALS FROM TODAYS STORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE/FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

COLD/DRY AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE LOCAL AREA FRI AS 1030+MB ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. CAA WANES...BUT
NOT BEFORE H85 TEMPS LEVEL OFF BTWN -4 AND -8C. GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE HIGHS IN THE 25-30 DEG RANGE...BUT THICKNESSES YIELD
TEMPS IN THE MID 30S. HAVE KEPT WITH PERSISTENCE OF GOING ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. UPPER 20S
INTERIOR MD ERN SHORE. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN
THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR W TO
PARTLY CLOUDY E. NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION FRI
NIGHT...RESULTING IN LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED COASTAL BOUNDARY
FRI NIGHT...BUT REMAINING OFFSHORE THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. COLD FRI NIGHT WITH WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS.

ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE
SE STATES. SWLY RETURN FLOW COMMENCES SAT...RESULTING IN MODERATING
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND TEMPS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO REBOUND NICELY
SAT...WARMING INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S
COASTAL AREAS. SKIES AVG MOSTLY CLEAR. NOT AS COLD SAT NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. WARMER SUN WITH HIGHS NEAR
NORMAL...MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S COASTAL AREAS. COLD SAT
MORNING WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/CMC/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND THESE MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR. MORE OF A SPLIT/ZONAL
PATTERN WILL AFFECT THE CNTRL/ERN U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD
RESULTING IN NEAR OR SLGTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACRS THE FCST AREA.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACRS THE REGION SUN NGT INTO MON MORNG
POSSIBLY TRIGGERING ISLTD RAIN SHOWERS. MON NGT INTO TUE NGT...SFC
HI PRES WILL BE SLIDING ACRS EXTRM NRN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...WHILE WEAK LO PRES WILL BE MOVING FM THE GULF OF MEXICO
ENE AND OFF THE SE CST. AS A RESULT...SOME DEEPER LO LVL MOISTURE
WILL LIFT NWRD INTO AT LEAST SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...SO HAVE
SLGT (15-20%) TO SML CHC (30%) POPS FOR NOW. MAINLY DRY WX...EXCEPT
FOR MAYBE SLGT CHC OVR NE NC COUNTIES...FOR WED AFTN THRU THU AS
HI PRES BLDS FARTHER S. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 30S TO
LWR 40S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 40S TO UPR 50S MON
AND TUE...AND IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MIXTURE OF SLEET/SNOW NW OF KRIC WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WINTERY MIX WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW FM NW TO NE DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE DAY. IFR/LIFR OVER ALL TAF SITES WITH THE PCPN THROUGH
TONIGHT. TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED
AT RIC AND SBY WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES OR LESS AT THE SE TAF SITES.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FM THE N MUCH OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...PCPN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND
VFR CONDS RETURN. IMPROVING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
LATE THIS AFTN...ONE LO PRES AREA WAS OFF THE VA/NC CST WHILE A
SECOND LO PRES SYSTEM WAS ALONG THE SC CST. THESE LOWS WILL MOVE
NE ALNG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OUT TO SEA TNGT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNG. SCA`S AND GALE WARNGS REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO FRI MORNG OR
THRU FRI AFTN...DUE TO STRONG N WINDS. WAVES OVER THE CHES BAY
WILL BLD TO 3-5 FT...WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS BLDNG TO 6-11 FT.
CALMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI NGT THRU SUN...AS HI PRES BLDS OVR
THE AREA THEN SLIDES OFFSHR.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ012>017-
     030>032-102.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     VAZ060>062-065>073-077>094-099-100.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ048-049-
     063-064-074>076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ095>098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ632>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630-631-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...TMG







000
FXUS61 KLWX 060013
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
713 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING TO THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONGEST BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO EXIT ST. MARYS COUNTY SOON.
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MD...EASTERN
WV AND WRN VA. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. MINOR ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE...UP TO AN INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS.
ALLOWED WINTER STORM WARNING TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 7PM FOR ALL
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND ACROSS NRN MD. REST
OF THE WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT LOOKS ON TRACK TO EXPIRE ON
TIME OR POSSIBLY EARLY OVER THE REST OF THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO
EVALUATE.

MEAN LYR RH DROPS RAPIDLY OVNGT...WHICH SHUD ALLOW CLDS TO SCATTER
OUT. MEANWHILE THE DRY ARCTIC AMS WL CONT TO STREAM IN. KEPT A
MIN-T FCST THAT FOCUSED ON A MOS MEAN...LWRG BY A DEGF OR TWO FOR
THE FRESH SNOW AND CLRG SKIES. WHILE WINDS SHUD DIMINISH OVNGT...
DONT BELIEVE THEY WL OUTRIGHT DCPL. THAT COMBO PLACES OUTLYING
AREA OF CWFA...FM DC/BALT NWRN BURBS TO BLURDG WWD...AT THE
THRESHOLD FOR WIND CHILL ADVY. OPTED IN TO ALERT SNOW STORM
RECOVERY EFFORTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIPRES BLDS INTO CWFA FRIDAY. NRN STREAM S/WV ENERGY WL OVERRIDE
RDG...WHICH WL ERASE THE SUNNY START TO THE DAY. XPCT MOCLDY TO
PREVAIL DURING THE AFTN-EVE HRS.

THE THERMAL TROF WL BE CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE DAY. AS A
RESULT...FRI WL BE A COOLER DAY W/ MAXT IN THE MID-UPR 20S AND
MIN-T 10-15F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WHILE SOME WARMING BEGINS
SATURDAY...SNOW COVER WILL LIKELY TEMPER THIS TREND INITIALLY. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S NORTH AND
50S SOUTH.

LIGHT LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND
CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. RAISED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SUNDAY WILL FINALLY BE ABOVE FREEZING...EXCEPT IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WHERE UPPER 20S WILL BE MORE COMMON. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS REMAINING AOA FREEZING THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALSO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL. KEPT TUESDAY A LITTLE
COOLER THAN THE REST OF THE WEEK DUE TO POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER FROM
APPROACHING SYSTEM. STILL UNCLEAR IF THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT OUR
AREA OR SKIRT TO OUR SOUTH...FOR NOW LEFT SCHC POPS IN OUR FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEAVIEST SNOW HAS MOVED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS.
ONE FINAL AREA OF SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL LOWERED CIGS/VSBYS. CONDITIONS WILL
QUICKLY IMPROVE MID-LATE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD
THE TERMINALS. NORTH- NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. THE NORTH- NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE WATERS WITH GUSTS MAINLY
20-25KTS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW. HV SCA CONDS FOR ALL WATERS
TNGT...AND ADJUSTED CONTINUATION INTO FRI MRNG FOR THE BAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE WEEKEND...SO NOT EXPECTING
ANY MARINE CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ICE-INDUCED STREAM RISES HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. MANY OF THE STREAMS HAVE NOW CRESTED AND
ARE FALLING. IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT THERE IS AN ICE JAM ON THE
LOST/CACAPON RIVER IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA ABOVE GREAT CACAPON THAT
HAS NOT YET BROKEN...BUT WITH COLD AIR NOW BACK IN PLACE...IT MAY
NOT UNTIL TEMPERATURES WARM AGAIN...KEEPING RISES GRADUAL FOR NOW.

ALSO APPEARS THERE MAY BE SOME SORT OF ICE EFFECT ON GOOSE CREEK
BETWEEN EVERGREEN MILLS AND LANSDOWNE. THE CURRENT STAGE/FLOW AT THE
EVERGREEN MILLS GAUGE IS HIGHER THAN WOULD BE EXPECTED BASED ON
UPSTREAM SITES...AND STILL RISING. STILL A FEW FEET BELOW FLOOD
STAGE AT THIS TIME.

SINCE THERE ARE NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EVENTS AFTER TODAY FOR
AT LEAST A WEEK...THE MELT OF THE NEWLY-FALLEN SNOW SHOULD BE
GRADUAL. SO THE FLOOD THREAT FROM THAT SHOULD BE MINIMAL BUT WILL BE
MONITORED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DCZ001.
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR MDZ003>006-501>507.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ013-
     014-016-018.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ017.
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR VAZ025>031-040-501-503>508.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ038-
     039-050>055-502.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ036-
     037-056-057.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR WVZ050>053-055-501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530-531-535-
     536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...KCS/HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...BJL/KCS/MSE
MARINE...MSE/HTS/KCS
HYDROLOGY...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 060013
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
713 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...USHERING IN
MARKEDLY COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
GRADUALLY MODERATING...MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE IN
THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LEADING BATCH OF PCPN (MAINLY RAIN) NOW EXITING THE COAST WITH
SCNDRY AREA OF PCPN MOVG SE ACROSS THE FA ON A LINE FROM SBY-RIC-
AVC. COLD AIR SURGE SEEN WITH THIS BATCH OF PCPN AS TMPS FALL INTO
THE 20S ALONG WITH A GUSTY N WIND AT 15-30 MPH. XPCT MAINLY SNOW
MIXED WITH SLEET WITH UP TO 1 ADDNTL INCH PSBL AS IT MOVES SE OVR
THE NEXT 2-3 HRS.

WILL KEEP ALL ADVSRYS / WARNGS GOING FOR A FEW MORE HRS AS THE
PCPN GRDLY COMES TO AN END. WILL LIKEY REPLACE HEADLINES WITH
SPS`S FOR ICY CONDITIONS AS SKIES GRDLY CLR AND TMPS FALL INTO THE
TEENS.

LOWS 10-15 NORTH...15-20 SOUTH. WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR 0 ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

SEE LATEST PNSAKQ / LSRAKQ FOR SNOW / ICE TOTALS FROM TODAYS STORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE/FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

COLD/DRY AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE LOCAL AREA FRI AS 1030+MB ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. CAA WANES...BUT
NOT BEFORE H85 TEMPS LEVEL OFF BTWN -4 AND -8C. GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE HIGHS IN THE 25-30 DEG RANGE...BUT THICKNESSES YIELD
TEMPS IN THE MID 30S. HAVE KEPT WITH PERSISTENCE OF GOING ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. UPPER 20S
INTERIOR MD ERN SHORE. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN
THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR W TO
PARTLY CLOUDY E. NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION FRI
NIGHT...RESULTING IN LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED COASTAL BOUNDARY
FRI NIGHT...BUT REMAINING OFFSHORE THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. COLD FRI NIGHT WITH WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS.

ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE
SE STATES. SWLY RETURN FLOW COMMENCES SAT...RESULTING IN MODERATING
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND TEMPS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO REBOUND NICELY
SAT...WARMING INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S
COASTAL AREAS. SKIES AVG MOSTLY CLEAR. NOT AS COLD SAT NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. WARMER SUN WITH HIGHS NEAR
NORMAL...MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S COASTAL AREAS. COLD SAT
MORNING WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/CMC/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND THESE MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR. MORE OF A SPLIT/ZONAL
PATTERN WILL AFFECT THE CNTRL/ERN U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD
RESULTING IN NEAR OR SLGTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACRS THE FCST AREA.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACRS THE REGION SUN NGT INTO MON MORNG
POSSIBLY TRIGGERING ISLTD RAIN SHOWERS. MON NGT INTO TUE NGT...SFC
HI PRES WILL BE SLIDING ACRS EXTRM NRN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...WHILE WEAK LO PRES WILL BE MOVING FM THE GULF OF MEXICO
ENE AND OFF THE SE CST. AS A RESULT...SOME DEEPER LO LVL MOISTURE
WILL LIFT NWRD INTO AT LEAST SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...SO HAVE
SLGT (15-20%) TO SML CHC (30%) POPS FOR NOW. MAINLY DRY WX...EXCEPT
FOR MAYBE SLGT CHC OVR NE NC COUNTIES...FOR WED AFTN THRU THU AS
HI PRES BLDS FARTHER S. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 30S TO
LWR 40S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 40S TO UPR 50S MON
AND TUE...AND IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MIXTURE OF SLEET/SNOW NW OF KRIC WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WINTERY MIX WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW FM NW TO NE DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE DAY. IFR/LIFR OVER ALL TAF SITES WITH THE PCPN THROUGH
TONIGHT. TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED
AT RIC AND SBY WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES OR LESS AT THE SE TAF SITES.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FM THE N MUCH OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...PCPN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND
VFR CONDS RETURN. IMPROVING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
LATE THIS AFTN...ONE LO PRES AREA WAS OFF THE VA/NC CST WHILE A
SECOND LO PRES SYSTEM WAS ALONG THE SC CST. THESE LOWS WILL MOVE
NE ALNG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OUT TO SEA TNGT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNG. SCA`S AND GALE WARNGS REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO FRI MORNG OR
THRU FRI AFTN...DUE TO STRONG N WINDS. WAVES OVER THE CHES BAY
WILL BLD TO 3-5 FT...WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS BLDNG TO 6-11 FT.
CALMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI NGT THRU SUN...AS HI PRES BLDS OVR
THE AREA THEN SLIDES OFFSHR.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ012>017-
     030>032-102.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     VAZ060>062-065>073-077>094-099-100.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ048-049-
     063-064-074>076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ095>098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ632>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630-631-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...TMG







000
FXUS61 KLWX 060013
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
713 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING TO THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONGEST BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO EXIT ST. MARYS COUNTY SOON.
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MD...EASTERN
WV AND WRN VA. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. MINOR ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE...UP TO AN INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS.
ALLOWED WINTER STORM WARNING TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 7PM FOR ALL
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND ACROSS NRN MD. REST
OF THE WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT LOOKS ON TRACK TO EXPIRE ON
TIME OR POSSIBLY EARLY OVER THE REST OF THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO
EVALUATE.

MEAN LYR RH DROPS RAPIDLY OVNGT...WHICH SHUD ALLOW CLDS TO SCATTER
OUT. MEANWHILE THE DRY ARCTIC AMS WL CONT TO STREAM IN. KEPT A
MIN-T FCST THAT FOCUSED ON A MOS MEAN...LWRG BY A DEGF OR TWO FOR
THE FRESH SNOW AND CLRG SKIES. WHILE WINDS SHUD DIMINISH OVNGT...
DONT BELIEVE THEY WL OUTRIGHT DCPL. THAT COMBO PLACES OUTLYING
AREA OF CWFA...FM DC/BALT NWRN BURBS TO BLURDG WWD...AT THE
THRESHOLD FOR WIND CHILL ADVY. OPTED IN TO ALERT SNOW STORM
RECOVERY EFFORTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIPRES BLDS INTO CWFA FRIDAY. NRN STREAM S/WV ENERGY WL OVERRIDE
RDG...WHICH WL ERASE THE SUNNY START TO THE DAY. XPCT MOCLDY TO
PREVAIL DURING THE AFTN-EVE HRS.

THE THERMAL TROF WL BE CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE DAY. AS A
RESULT...FRI WL BE A COOLER DAY W/ MAXT IN THE MID-UPR 20S AND
MIN-T 10-15F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WHILE SOME WARMING BEGINS
SATURDAY...SNOW COVER WILL LIKELY TEMPER THIS TREND INITIALLY. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S NORTH AND
50S SOUTH.

LIGHT LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND
CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. RAISED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SUNDAY WILL FINALLY BE ABOVE FREEZING...EXCEPT IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WHERE UPPER 20S WILL BE MORE COMMON. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS REMAINING AOA FREEZING THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALSO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL. KEPT TUESDAY A LITTLE
COOLER THAN THE REST OF THE WEEK DUE TO POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER FROM
APPROACHING SYSTEM. STILL UNCLEAR IF THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT OUR
AREA OR SKIRT TO OUR SOUTH...FOR NOW LEFT SCHC POPS IN OUR FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEAVIEST SNOW HAS MOVED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS.
ONE FINAL AREA OF SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL LOWERED CIGS/VSBYS. CONDITIONS WILL
QUICKLY IMPROVE MID-LATE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD
THE TERMINALS. NORTH- NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. THE NORTH- NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE WATERS WITH GUSTS MAINLY
20-25KTS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW. HV SCA CONDS FOR ALL WATERS
TNGT...AND ADJUSTED CONTINUATION INTO FRI MRNG FOR THE BAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE WEEKEND...SO NOT EXPECTING
ANY MARINE CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ICE-INDUCED STREAM RISES HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. MANY OF THE STREAMS HAVE NOW CRESTED AND
ARE FALLING. IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT THERE IS AN ICE JAM ON THE
LOST/CACAPON RIVER IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA ABOVE GREAT CACAPON THAT
HAS NOT YET BROKEN...BUT WITH COLD AIR NOW BACK IN PLACE...IT MAY
NOT UNTIL TEMPERATURES WARM AGAIN...KEEPING RISES GRADUAL FOR NOW.

ALSO APPEARS THERE MAY BE SOME SORT OF ICE EFFECT ON GOOSE CREEK
BETWEEN EVERGREEN MILLS AND LANSDOWNE. THE CURRENT STAGE/FLOW AT THE
EVERGREEN MILLS GAUGE IS HIGHER THAN WOULD BE EXPECTED BASED ON
UPSTREAM SITES...AND STILL RISING. STILL A FEW FEET BELOW FLOOD
STAGE AT THIS TIME.

SINCE THERE ARE NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EVENTS AFTER TODAY FOR
AT LEAST A WEEK...THE MELT OF THE NEWLY-FALLEN SNOW SHOULD BE
GRADUAL. SO THE FLOOD THREAT FROM THAT SHOULD BE MINIMAL BUT WILL BE
MONITORED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DCZ001.
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR MDZ003>006-501>507.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ013-
     014-016-018.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ017.
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR VAZ025>031-040-501-503>508.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ038-
     039-050>055-502.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ036-
     037-056-057.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR WVZ050>053-055-501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530-531-535-
     536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...KCS/HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...BJL/KCS/MSE
MARINE...MSE/HTS/KCS
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 060013
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
713 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...USHERING IN
MARKEDLY COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
GRADUALLY MODERATING...MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE IN
THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LEADING BATCH OF PCPN (MAINLY RAIN) NOW EXITING THE COAST WITH
SCNDRY AREA OF PCPN MOVG SE ACROSS THE FA ON A LINE FROM SBY-RIC-
AVC. COLD AIR SURGE SEEN WITH THIS BATCH OF PCPN AS TMPS FALL INTO
THE 20S ALONG WITH A GUSTY N WIND AT 15-30 MPH. XPCT MAINLY SNOW
MIXED WITH SLEET WITH UP TO 1 ADDNTL INCH PSBL AS IT MOVES SE OVR
THE NEXT 2-3 HRS.

WILL KEEP ALL ADVSRYS / WARNGS GOING FOR A FEW MORE HRS AS THE
PCPN GRDLY COMES TO AN END. WILL LIKEY REPLACE HEADLINES WITH
SPS`S FOR ICY CONDITIONS AS SKIES GRDLY CLR AND TMPS FALL INTO THE
TEENS.

LOWS 10-15 NORTH...15-20 SOUTH. WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR 0 ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

SEE LATEST PNSAKQ / LSRAKQ FOR SNOW / ICE TOTALS FROM TODAYS STORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE/FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

COLD/DRY AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE LOCAL AREA FRI AS 1030+MB ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. CAA WANES...BUT
NOT BEFORE H85 TEMPS LEVEL OFF BTWN -4 AND -8C. GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE HIGHS IN THE 25-30 DEG RANGE...BUT THICKNESSES YIELD
TEMPS IN THE MID 30S. HAVE KEPT WITH PERSISTENCE OF GOING ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. UPPER 20S
INTERIOR MD ERN SHORE. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN
THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR W TO
PARTLY CLOUDY E. NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION FRI
NIGHT...RESULTING IN LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED COASTAL BOUNDARY
FRI NIGHT...BUT REMAINING OFFSHORE THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. COLD FRI NIGHT WITH WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS.

ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE
SE STATES. SWLY RETURN FLOW COMMENCES SAT...RESULTING IN MODERATING
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND TEMPS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO REBOUND NICELY
SAT...WARMING INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S
COASTAL AREAS. SKIES AVG MOSTLY CLEAR. NOT AS COLD SAT NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. WARMER SUN WITH HIGHS NEAR
NORMAL...MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S COASTAL AREAS. COLD SAT
MORNING WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/CMC/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND THESE MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR. MORE OF A SPLIT/ZONAL
PATTERN WILL AFFECT THE CNTRL/ERN U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD
RESULTING IN NEAR OR SLGTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACRS THE FCST AREA.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACRS THE REGION SUN NGT INTO MON MORNG
POSSIBLY TRIGGERING ISLTD RAIN SHOWERS. MON NGT INTO TUE NGT...SFC
HI PRES WILL BE SLIDING ACRS EXTRM NRN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...WHILE WEAK LO PRES WILL BE MOVING FM THE GULF OF MEXICO
ENE AND OFF THE SE CST. AS A RESULT...SOME DEEPER LO LVL MOISTURE
WILL LIFT NWRD INTO AT LEAST SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...SO HAVE
SLGT (15-20%) TO SML CHC (30%) POPS FOR NOW. MAINLY DRY WX...EXCEPT
FOR MAYBE SLGT CHC OVR NE NC COUNTIES...FOR WED AFTN THRU THU AS
HI PRES BLDS FARTHER S. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 30S TO
LWR 40S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 40S TO UPR 50S MON
AND TUE...AND IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MIXTURE OF SLEET/SNOW NW OF KRIC WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WINTERY MIX WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW FM NW TO NE DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE DAY. IFR/LIFR OVER ALL TAF SITES WITH THE PCPN THROUGH
TONIGHT. TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED
AT RIC AND SBY WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES OR LESS AT THE SE TAF SITES.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FM THE N MUCH OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...PCPN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND
VFR CONDS RETURN. IMPROVING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
LATE THIS AFTN...ONE LO PRES AREA WAS OFF THE VA/NC CST WHILE A
SECOND LO PRES SYSTEM WAS ALONG THE SC CST. THESE LOWS WILL MOVE
NE ALNG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OUT TO SEA TNGT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNG. SCA`S AND GALE WARNGS REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO FRI MORNG OR
THRU FRI AFTN...DUE TO STRONG N WINDS. WAVES OVER THE CHES BAY
WILL BLD TO 3-5 FT...WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS BLDNG TO 6-11 FT.
CALMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI NGT THRU SUN...AS HI PRES BLDS OVR
THE AREA THEN SLIDES OFFSHR.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ012>017-
     030>032-102.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     VAZ060>062-065>073-077>094-099-100.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ048-049-
     063-064-074>076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ095>098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ632>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630-631-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...TMG






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 060013
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
713 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...USHERING IN
MARKEDLY COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
GRADUALLY MODERATING...MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE IN
THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LEADING BATCH OF PCPN (MAINLY RAIN) NOW EXITING THE COAST WITH
SCNDRY AREA OF PCPN MOVG SE ACROSS THE FA ON A LINE FROM SBY-RIC-
AVC. COLD AIR SURGE SEEN WITH THIS BATCH OF PCPN AS TMPS FALL INTO
THE 20S ALONG WITH A GUSTY N WIND AT 15-30 MPH. XPCT MAINLY SNOW
MIXED WITH SLEET WITH UP TO 1 ADDNTL INCH PSBL AS IT MOVES SE OVR
THE NEXT 2-3 HRS.

WILL KEEP ALL ADVSRYS / WARNGS GOING FOR A FEW MORE HRS AS THE
PCPN GRDLY COMES TO AN END. WILL LIKEY REPLACE HEADLINES WITH
SPS`S FOR ICY CONDITIONS AS SKIES GRDLY CLR AND TMPS FALL INTO THE
TEENS.

LOWS 10-15 NORTH...15-20 SOUTH. WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR 0 ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

SEE LATEST PNSAKQ / LSRAKQ FOR SNOW / ICE TOTALS FROM TODAYS STORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE/FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

COLD/DRY AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE LOCAL AREA FRI AS 1030+MB ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. CAA WANES...BUT
NOT BEFORE H85 TEMPS LEVEL OFF BTWN -4 AND -8C. GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE HIGHS IN THE 25-30 DEG RANGE...BUT THICKNESSES YIELD
TEMPS IN THE MID 30S. HAVE KEPT WITH PERSISTENCE OF GOING ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. UPPER 20S
INTERIOR MD ERN SHORE. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN
THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR W TO
PARTLY CLOUDY E. NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION FRI
NIGHT...RESULTING IN LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED COASTAL BOUNDARY
FRI NIGHT...BUT REMAINING OFFSHORE THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. COLD FRI NIGHT WITH WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS.

ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE
SE STATES. SWLY RETURN FLOW COMMENCES SAT...RESULTING IN MODERATING
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND TEMPS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO REBOUND NICELY
SAT...WARMING INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S
COASTAL AREAS. SKIES AVG MOSTLY CLEAR. NOT AS COLD SAT NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. WARMER SUN WITH HIGHS NEAR
NORMAL...MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S COASTAL AREAS. COLD SAT
MORNING WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/CMC/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND THESE MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR. MORE OF A SPLIT/ZONAL
PATTERN WILL AFFECT THE CNTRL/ERN U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD
RESULTING IN NEAR OR SLGTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACRS THE FCST AREA.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACRS THE REGION SUN NGT INTO MON MORNG
POSSIBLY TRIGGERING ISLTD RAIN SHOWERS. MON NGT INTO TUE NGT...SFC
HI PRES WILL BE SLIDING ACRS EXTRM NRN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...WHILE WEAK LO PRES WILL BE MOVING FM THE GULF OF MEXICO
ENE AND OFF THE SE CST. AS A RESULT...SOME DEEPER LO LVL MOISTURE
WILL LIFT NWRD INTO AT LEAST SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...SO HAVE
SLGT (15-20%) TO SML CHC (30%) POPS FOR NOW. MAINLY DRY WX...EXCEPT
FOR MAYBE SLGT CHC OVR NE NC COUNTIES...FOR WED AFTN THRU THU AS
HI PRES BLDS FARTHER S. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 30S TO
LWR 40S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 40S TO UPR 50S MON
AND TUE...AND IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MIXTURE OF SLEET/SNOW NW OF KRIC WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WINTERY MIX WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW FM NW TO NE DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE DAY. IFR/LIFR OVER ALL TAF SITES WITH THE PCPN THROUGH
TONIGHT. TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED
AT RIC AND SBY WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES OR LESS AT THE SE TAF SITES.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FM THE N MUCH OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...PCPN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND
VFR CONDS RETURN. IMPROVING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
LATE THIS AFTN...ONE LO PRES AREA WAS OFF THE VA/NC CST WHILE A
SECOND LO PRES SYSTEM WAS ALONG THE SC CST. THESE LOWS WILL MOVE
NE ALNG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OUT TO SEA TNGT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNG. SCA`S AND GALE WARNGS REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO FRI MORNG OR
THRU FRI AFTN...DUE TO STRONG N WINDS. WAVES OVER THE CHES BAY
WILL BLD TO 3-5 FT...WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS BLDNG TO 6-11 FT.
CALMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI NGT THRU SUN...AS HI PRES BLDS OVR
THE AREA THEN SLIDES OFFSHR.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ012>017-
     030>032-102.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     VAZ060>062-065>073-077>094-099-100.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ048-049-
     063-064-074>076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ095>098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ632>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630-631-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...TMG







000
FXUS61 KLWX 060013
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
713 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING TO THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONGEST BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO EXIT ST. MARYS COUNTY SOON.
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MD...EASTERN
WV AND WRN VA. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. MINOR ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE...UP TO AN INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS.
ALLOWED WINTER STORM WARNING TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 7PM FOR ALL
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND ACROSS NRN MD. REST
OF THE WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT LOOKS ON TRACK TO EXPIRE ON
TIME OR POSSIBLY EARLY OVER THE REST OF THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO
EVALUATE.

MEAN LYR RH DROPS RAPIDLY OVNGT...WHICH SHUD ALLOW CLDS TO SCATTER
OUT. MEANWHILE THE DRY ARCTIC AMS WL CONT TO STREAM IN. KEPT A
MIN-T FCST THAT FOCUSED ON A MOS MEAN...LWRG BY A DEGF OR TWO FOR
THE FRESH SNOW AND CLRG SKIES. WHILE WINDS SHUD DIMINISH OVNGT...
DONT BELIEVE THEY WL OUTRIGHT DCPL. THAT COMBO PLACES OUTLYING
AREA OF CWFA...FM DC/BALT NWRN BURBS TO BLURDG WWD...AT THE
THRESHOLD FOR WIND CHILL ADVY. OPTED IN TO ALERT SNOW STORM
RECOVERY EFFORTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIPRES BLDS INTO CWFA FRIDAY. NRN STREAM S/WV ENERGY WL OVERRIDE
RDG...WHICH WL ERASE THE SUNNY START TO THE DAY. XPCT MOCLDY TO
PREVAIL DURING THE AFTN-EVE HRS.

THE THERMAL TROF WL BE CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE DAY. AS A
RESULT...FRI WL BE A COOLER DAY W/ MAXT IN THE MID-UPR 20S AND
MIN-T 10-15F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WHILE SOME WARMING BEGINS
SATURDAY...SNOW COVER WILL LIKELY TEMPER THIS TREND INITIALLY. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S NORTH AND
50S SOUTH.

LIGHT LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND
CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. RAISED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SUNDAY WILL FINALLY BE ABOVE FREEZING...EXCEPT IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WHERE UPPER 20S WILL BE MORE COMMON. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS REMAINING AOA FREEZING THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALSO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL. KEPT TUESDAY A LITTLE
COOLER THAN THE REST OF THE WEEK DUE TO POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER FROM
APPROACHING SYSTEM. STILL UNCLEAR IF THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT OUR
AREA OR SKIRT TO OUR SOUTH...FOR NOW LEFT SCHC POPS IN OUR FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEAVIEST SNOW HAS MOVED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS.
ONE FINAL AREA OF SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL LOWERED CIGS/VSBYS. CONDITIONS WILL
QUICKLY IMPROVE MID-LATE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD
THE TERMINALS. NORTH- NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. THE NORTH- NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE WATERS WITH GUSTS MAINLY
20-25KTS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW. HV SCA CONDS FOR ALL WATERS
TNGT...AND ADJUSTED CONTINUATION INTO FRI MRNG FOR THE BAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE WEEKEND...SO NOT EXPECTING
ANY MARINE CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ICE-INDUCED STREAM RISES HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. MANY OF THE STREAMS HAVE NOW CRESTED AND
ARE FALLING. IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT THERE IS AN ICE JAM ON THE
LOST/CACAPON RIVER IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA ABOVE GREAT CACAPON THAT
HAS NOT YET BROKEN...BUT WITH COLD AIR NOW BACK IN PLACE...IT MAY
NOT UNTIL TEMPERATURES WARM AGAIN...KEEPING RISES GRADUAL FOR NOW.

ALSO APPEARS THERE MAY BE SOME SORT OF ICE EFFECT ON GOOSE CREEK
BETWEEN EVERGREEN MILLS AND LANSDOWNE. THE CURRENT STAGE/FLOW AT THE
EVERGREEN MILLS GAUGE IS HIGHER THAN WOULD BE EXPECTED BASED ON
UPSTREAM SITES...AND STILL RISING. STILL A FEW FEET BELOW FLOOD
STAGE AT THIS TIME.

SINCE THERE ARE NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EVENTS AFTER TODAY FOR
AT LEAST A WEEK...THE MELT OF THE NEWLY-FALLEN SNOW SHOULD BE
GRADUAL. SO THE FLOOD THREAT FROM THAT SHOULD BE MINIMAL BUT WILL BE
MONITORED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DCZ001.
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR MDZ003>006-501>507.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ013-
     014-016-018.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ017.
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR VAZ025>031-040-501-503>508.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ038-
     039-050>055-502.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ036-
     037-056-057.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR WVZ050>053-055-501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530-531-535-
     536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...KCS/HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...BJL/KCS/MSE
MARINE...MSE/HTS/KCS
HYDROLOGY...



000
FXUS61 KLWX 060013
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
713 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING TO THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONGEST BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO EXIT ST. MARYS COUNTY SOON.
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MD...EASTERN
WV AND WRN VA. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. MINOR ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE...UP TO AN INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS.
ALLOWED WINTER STORM WARNING TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 7PM FOR ALL
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND ACROSS NRN MD. REST
OF THE WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT LOOKS ON TRACK TO EXPIRE ON
TIME OR POSSIBLY EARLY OVER THE REST OF THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO
EVALUATE.

MEAN LYR RH DROPS RAPIDLY OVNGT...WHICH SHUD ALLOW CLDS TO SCATTER
OUT. MEANWHILE THE DRY ARCTIC AMS WL CONT TO STREAM IN. KEPT A
MIN-T FCST THAT FOCUSED ON A MOS MEAN...LWRG BY A DEGF OR TWO FOR
THE FRESH SNOW AND CLRG SKIES. WHILE WINDS SHUD DIMINISH OVNGT...
DONT BELIEVE THEY WL OUTRIGHT DCPL. THAT COMBO PLACES OUTLYING
AREA OF CWFA...FM DC/BALT NWRN BURBS TO BLURDG WWD...AT THE
THRESHOLD FOR WIND CHILL ADVY. OPTED IN TO ALERT SNOW STORM
RECOVERY EFFORTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIPRES BLDS INTO CWFA FRIDAY. NRN STREAM S/WV ENERGY WL OVERRIDE
RDG...WHICH WL ERASE THE SUNNY START TO THE DAY. XPCT MOCLDY TO
PREVAIL DURING THE AFTN-EVE HRS.

THE THERMAL TROF WL BE CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE DAY. AS A
RESULT...FRI WL BE A COOLER DAY W/ MAXT IN THE MID-UPR 20S AND
MIN-T 10-15F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WHILE SOME WARMING BEGINS
SATURDAY...SNOW COVER WILL LIKELY TEMPER THIS TREND INITIALLY. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S NORTH AND
50S SOUTH.

LIGHT LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND
CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. RAISED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SUNDAY WILL FINALLY BE ABOVE FREEZING...EXCEPT IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WHERE UPPER 20S WILL BE MORE COMMON. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS REMAINING AOA FREEZING THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALSO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL. KEPT TUESDAY A LITTLE
COOLER THAN THE REST OF THE WEEK DUE TO POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER FROM
APPROACHING SYSTEM. STILL UNCLEAR IF THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT OUR
AREA OR SKIRT TO OUR SOUTH...FOR NOW LEFT SCHC POPS IN OUR FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEAVIEST SNOW HAS MOVED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS.
ONE FINAL AREA OF SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL LOWERED CIGS/VSBYS. CONDITIONS WILL
QUICKLY IMPROVE MID-LATE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD
THE TERMINALS. NORTH- NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. THE NORTH- NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE WATERS WITH GUSTS MAINLY
20-25KTS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW. HV SCA CONDS FOR ALL WATERS
TNGT...AND ADJUSTED CONTINUATION INTO FRI MRNG FOR THE BAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE WEEKEND...SO NOT EXPECTING
ANY MARINE CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ICE-INDUCED STREAM RISES HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. MANY OF THE STREAMS HAVE NOW CRESTED AND
ARE FALLING. IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT THERE IS AN ICE JAM ON THE
LOST/CACAPON RIVER IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA ABOVE GREAT CACAPON THAT
HAS NOT YET BROKEN...BUT WITH COLD AIR NOW BACK IN PLACE...IT MAY
NOT UNTIL TEMPERATURES WARM AGAIN...KEEPING RISES GRADUAL FOR NOW.

ALSO APPEARS THERE MAY BE SOME SORT OF ICE EFFECT ON GOOSE CREEK
BETWEEN EVERGREEN MILLS AND LANSDOWNE. THE CURRENT STAGE/FLOW AT THE
EVERGREEN MILLS GAUGE IS HIGHER THAN WOULD BE EXPECTED BASED ON
UPSTREAM SITES...AND STILL RISING. STILL A FEW FEET BELOW FLOOD
STAGE AT THIS TIME.

SINCE THERE ARE NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EVENTS AFTER TODAY FOR
AT LEAST A WEEK...THE MELT OF THE NEWLY-FALLEN SNOW SHOULD BE
GRADUAL. SO THE FLOOD THREAT FROM THAT SHOULD BE MINIMAL BUT WILL BE
MONITORED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DCZ001.
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR MDZ003>006-501>507.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ013-
     014-016-018.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ017.
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR VAZ025>031-040-501-503>508.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ038-
     039-050>055-502.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ036-
     037-056-057.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR WVZ050>053-055-501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530-531-535-
     536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...KCS/HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...BJL/KCS/MSE
MARINE...MSE/HTS/KCS
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 060002
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
702 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING, THEN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE
TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO
OUR NORTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
650 PM HEADLINE ADJUSTMENT: CANCELLED I-95 CORRIDOR; BUT EXTENDED
SE NJ THROUGH CENTRAL DE AND A PORTION OF MD E ASHORE THROUGH 01Z;
AND SUSSEX COUNTY DE HAD TO EXTEND THROUGH 02Z, WHERE TOO MUCH
SNOW ON RADAR.  ALL PRODUCTS POSTED.

CONTINUED MODIFIED CALL TO ACTION FOR MORE SAFETY ON SNOW REMOVAL.

TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE ONCE SKIES CLEAR. THIS SHOULD TAKE PLACE
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER THE SNOW ENDS GIVEN A STEEP DROP IN DEW
POINTS AND CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION. RECORD LOWS ARE
POSSIBLE, PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT ARE COMPOSED OF MET/MAV AND THE MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS WHICH HAS DONE WELL AT NIGHT WITH SNOW
COVER.

WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION,
WITH THE POCONOS SEEING WIND CHILLS WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY
THRESHOLD FOR A FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE LIMITED WINDOW AND MARGINAL
VALUES IN TERMS OF AND ADVISORY, WILL JUST CONTINUE MENTION IN THE
HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY BUT STILL
COLD. DID GO A TOUCH WARMER THAN MAV/MET GIVEN THE COOL DAYTIME
BIAS WITH SNOW COVER. OTHER ELEMENTS STRAIGHT MAV/MET. CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 MPH OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW, THIS FEATURE SHOULD AMPLIFY A LITTLE
FOR A TIME OR TWO. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS ENERGY EJECTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH A RIDGE POTENTIALLY BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.
THIS RESULTS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK.
WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT
WITH THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. WE THEN MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER A DRY AIRMASS RESULTS IN NO PRECIPITATION.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA HOWEVER ITS
CENTER SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL RETURN FLOW BEING ESTABLISHED AND AFTER A VERY COLD START
SATURDAY, SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES SUNDAY, THEN WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY. THIS
WILL DRIVE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING MONDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE AS MUCH OF THE LIFT
OCCURS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THERE COULD BE A SNOW SHOWER THOUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, THE AIRMASS
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MODIFY AS THE FLOW COMES MORE FROM THE
WEST AND NOT THE NORTH.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
PRESSURE APPEARS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH ONCE AGAIN, WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING MOSTLY TO OUR NORTHWEST. WHILE THE FLOW LOOKS FAIRLY
WEAK, ENOUGH WAA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR FURTHER
MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH MANY AREAS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ARRIVING LATE
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE
ALOFT IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA, WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM NEAR MAINE TO THE
GREAT LAKES THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE MUCH
MILDER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 50S. THE OCEAN AND
DELAWARE BAY ARE COLD AND IF THERE IS LIGHT ENOUGH FLOW, THEN A
COOLING AFFECT CAN BE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...MVFR SNOW AT KMIV AND KACY ENDS BY 01Z/6 FOLLOWED BY VFR
CIGS FOR A FEW HRS THEN THEN VFR CLEAR AFTER 05Z. NORTH- NORTHWEST
WIND GUST 20 KT EARLY THEN DIMINISHES. FOR THE REMAINING TAF SITES
VFR CIGS THEN BECOMING VFR CLEAR 02Z-04Z.

FRIDAY...VFR CLEAR WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS AOA 20000 FT LATE IN THE
DAY. LIGHT WIND.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING BY
LATER SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER ANY
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IT
MOVES THROUGH DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE
5 FT. IN ADDITION, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST. THEREFORE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON THE BAY, A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. FOR FRIDAY, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE SOME FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING SATURDAY. THERE IS A
CHC FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE ARE ANTICIPATING SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY DURING
MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH A SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING WE HAVE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909

THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

IT APPEARS THAT READING AND ATLANTIC CITY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF GETTING TO THEIR RECORD LOW SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

RECORD EVENT REPORTS WILL UPDATE AROUND 730 PM KACY AND KILG.
WE MAY NEED OTHERS AT THAT TIME.

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

FWIW...WATER EQUIVALENCE OF TOTAL SNOW DEPTH IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PA IS NOW WELL OVER 3 INCHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ020>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DEZ002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ015-
     019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GAINES 701
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/GORSE/O`HARA 701
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON/O`HARA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 060002
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
702 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING, THEN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE
TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO
OUR NORTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
650 PM HEADLINE ADJUSTMENT: CANCELLED I-95 CORRIDOR; BUT EXTENDED
SE NJ THROUGH CENTRAL DE AND A PORTION OF MD E ASHORE THROUGH 01Z;
AND SUSSEX COUNTY DE HAD TO EXTEND THROUGH 02Z, WHERE TOO MUCH
SNOW ON RADAR.  ALL PRODUCTS POSTED.

CONTINUED MODIFIED CALL TO ACTION FOR MORE SAFETY ON SNOW REMOVAL.

TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE ONCE SKIES CLEAR. THIS SHOULD TAKE PLACE
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER THE SNOW ENDS GIVEN A STEEP DROP IN DEW
POINTS AND CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION. RECORD LOWS ARE
POSSIBLE, PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT ARE COMPOSED OF MET/MAV AND THE MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS WHICH HAS DONE WELL AT NIGHT WITH SNOW
COVER.

WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION,
WITH THE POCONOS SEEING WIND CHILLS WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY
THRESHOLD FOR A FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE LIMITED WINDOW AND MARGINAL
VALUES IN TERMS OF AND ADVISORY, WILL JUST CONTINUE MENTION IN THE
HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY BUT STILL
COLD. DID GO A TOUCH WARMER THAN MAV/MET GIVEN THE COOL DAYTIME
BIAS WITH SNOW COVER. OTHER ELEMENTS STRAIGHT MAV/MET. CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 MPH OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW, THIS FEATURE SHOULD AMPLIFY A LITTLE
FOR A TIME OR TWO. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS ENERGY EJECTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH A RIDGE POTENTIALLY BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.
THIS RESULTS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK.
WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT
WITH THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. WE THEN MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER A DRY AIRMASS RESULTS IN NO PRECIPITATION.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA HOWEVER ITS
CENTER SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL RETURN FLOW BEING ESTABLISHED AND AFTER A VERY COLD START
SATURDAY, SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES SUNDAY, THEN WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY. THIS
WILL DRIVE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING MONDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE AS MUCH OF THE LIFT
OCCURS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THERE COULD BE A SNOW SHOWER THOUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, THE AIRMASS
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MODIFY AS THE FLOW COMES MORE FROM THE
WEST AND NOT THE NORTH.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
PRESSURE APPEARS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH ONCE AGAIN, WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING MOSTLY TO OUR NORTHWEST. WHILE THE FLOW LOOKS FAIRLY
WEAK, ENOUGH WAA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR FURTHER
MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH MANY AREAS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ARRIVING LATE
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE
ALOFT IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA, WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM NEAR MAINE TO THE
GREAT LAKES THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE MUCH
MILDER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 50S. THE OCEAN AND
DELAWARE BAY ARE COLD AND IF THERE IS LIGHT ENOUGH FLOW, THEN A
COOLING AFFECT CAN BE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...MVFR SNOW AT KMIV AND KACY ENDS BY 01Z/6 FOLLOWED BY VFR
CIGS FOR A FEW HRS THEN THEN VFR CLEAR AFTER 05Z. NORTH- NORTHWEST
WIND GUST 20 KT EARLY THEN DIMINISHES. FOR THE REMAINING TAF SITES
VFR CIGS THEN BECOMING VFR CLEAR 02Z-04Z.

FRIDAY...VFR CLEAR WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS AOA 20000 FT LATE IN THE
DAY. LIGHT WIND.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING BY
LATER SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER ANY
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IT
MOVES THROUGH DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE
5 FT. IN ADDITION, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST. THEREFORE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON THE BAY, A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. FOR FRIDAY, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE SOME FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING SATURDAY. THERE IS A
CHC FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE ARE ANTICIPATING SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY DURING
MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH A SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING WE HAVE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909

THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

IT APPEARS THAT READING AND ATLANTIC CITY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF GETTING TO THEIR RECORD LOW SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

RECORD EVENT REPORTS WILL UPDATE AROUND 730 PM KACY AND KILG.
WE MAY NEED OTHERS AT THAT TIME.

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

FWIW...WATER EQUIVALENCE OF TOTAL SNOW DEPTH IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PA IS NOW WELL OVER 3 INCHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ020>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DEZ002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ015-
     019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GAINES 701
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/GORSE/O`HARA 701
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON/O`HARA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 060002
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
702 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING, THEN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE
TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO
OUR NORTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
650 PM HEADLINE ADJUSTMENT: CANCELLED I-95 CORRIDOR; BUT EXTENDED
SE NJ THROUGH CENTRAL DE AND A PORTION OF MD E ASHORE THROUGH 01Z;
AND SUSSEX COUNTY DE HAD TO EXTEND THROUGH 02Z, WHERE TOO MUCH
SNOW ON RADAR.  ALL PRODUCTS POSTED.

CONTINUED MODIFIED CALL TO ACTION FOR MORE SAFETY ON SNOW REMOVAL.

TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE ONCE SKIES CLEAR. THIS SHOULD TAKE PLACE
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER THE SNOW ENDS GIVEN A STEEP DROP IN DEW
POINTS AND CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION. RECORD LOWS ARE
POSSIBLE, PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT ARE COMPOSED OF MET/MAV AND THE MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS WHICH HAS DONE WELL AT NIGHT WITH SNOW
COVER.

WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION,
WITH THE POCONOS SEEING WIND CHILLS WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY
THRESHOLD FOR A FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE LIMITED WINDOW AND MARGINAL
VALUES IN TERMS OF AND ADVISORY, WILL JUST CONTINUE MENTION IN THE
HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY BUT STILL
COLD. DID GO A TOUCH WARMER THAN MAV/MET GIVEN THE COOL DAYTIME
BIAS WITH SNOW COVER. OTHER ELEMENTS STRAIGHT MAV/MET. CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 MPH OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW, THIS FEATURE SHOULD AMPLIFY A LITTLE
FOR A TIME OR TWO. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS ENERGY EJECTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH A RIDGE POTENTIALLY BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.
THIS RESULTS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK.
WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT
WITH THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. WE THEN MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER A DRY AIRMASS RESULTS IN NO PRECIPITATION.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA HOWEVER ITS
CENTER SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL RETURN FLOW BEING ESTABLISHED AND AFTER A VERY COLD START
SATURDAY, SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES SUNDAY, THEN WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY. THIS
WILL DRIVE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING MONDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE AS MUCH OF THE LIFT
OCCURS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THERE COULD BE A SNOW SHOWER THOUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, THE AIRMASS
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MODIFY AS THE FLOW COMES MORE FROM THE
WEST AND NOT THE NORTH.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
PRESSURE APPEARS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH ONCE AGAIN, WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING MOSTLY TO OUR NORTHWEST. WHILE THE FLOW LOOKS FAIRLY
WEAK, ENOUGH WAA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR FURTHER
MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH MANY AREAS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ARRIVING LATE
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE
ALOFT IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA, WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM NEAR MAINE TO THE
GREAT LAKES THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE MUCH
MILDER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 50S. THE OCEAN AND
DELAWARE BAY ARE COLD AND IF THERE IS LIGHT ENOUGH FLOW, THEN A
COOLING AFFECT CAN BE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...MVFR SNOW AT KMIV AND KACY ENDS BY 01Z/6 FOLLOWED BY VFR
CIGS FOR A FEW HRS THEN THEN VFR CLEAR AFTER 05Z. NORTH- NORTHWEST
WIND GUST 20 KT EARLY THEN DIMINISHES. FOR THE REMAINING TAF SITES
VFR CIGS THEN BECOMING VFR CLEAR 02Z-04Z.

FRIDAY...VFR CLEAR WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS AOA 20000 FT LATE IN THE
DAY. LIGHT WIND.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING BY
LATER SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER ANY
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IT
MOVES THROUGH DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE
5 FT. IN ADDITION, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST. THEREFORE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON THE BAY, A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. FOR FRIDAY, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE SOME FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING SATURDAY. THERE IS A
CHC FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE ARE ANTICIPATING SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY DURING
MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH A SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING WE HAVE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909

THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

IT APPEARS THAT READING AND ATLANTIC CITY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF GETTING TO THEIR RECORD LOW SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

RECORD EVENT REPORTS WILL UPDATE AROUND 730 PM KACY AND KILG.
WE MAY NEED OTHERS AT THAT TIME.

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

FWIW...WATER EQUIVALENCE OF TOTAL SNOW DEPTH IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PA IS NOW WELL OVER 3 INCHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ020>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DEZ002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ015-
     019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GAINES 701
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/GORSE/O`HARA 701
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON/O`HARA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 060002
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
702 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING, THEN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE
TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO
OUR NORTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
650 PM HEADLINE ADJUSTMENT: CANCELLED I-95 CORRIDOR; BUT EXTENDED
SE NJ THROUGH CENTRAL DE AND A PORTION OF MD E ASHORE THROUGH 01Z;
AND SUSSEX COUNTY DE HAD TO EXTEND THROUGH 02Z, WHERE TOO MUCH
SNOW ON RADAR.  ALL PRODUCTS POSTED.

CONTINUED MODIFIED CALL TO ACTION FOR MORE SAFETY ON SNOW REMOVAL.

TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE ONCE SKIES CLEAR. THIS SHOULD TAKE PLACE
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER THE SNOW ENDS GIVEN A STEEP DROP IN DEW
POINTS AND CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION. RECORD LOWS ARE
POSSIBLE, PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT ARE COMPOSED OF MET/MAV AND THE MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS WHICH HAS DONE WELL AT NIGHT WITH SNOW
COVER.

WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION,
WITH THE POCONOS SEEING WIND CHILLS WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY
THRESHOLD FOR A FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE LIMITED WINDOW AND MARGINAL
VALUES IN TERMS OF AND ADVISORY, WILL JUST CONTINUE MENTION IN THE
HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY BUT STILL
COLD. DID GO A TOUCH WARMER THAN MAV/MET GIVEN THE COOL DAYTIME
BIAS WITH SNOW COVER. OTHER ELEMENTS STRAIGHT MAV/MET. CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 MPH OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW, THIS FEATURE SHOULD AMPLIFY A LITTLE
FOR A TIME OR TWO. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS ENERGY EJECTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH A RIDGE POTENTIALLY BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.
THIS RESULTS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK.
WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT
WITH THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. WE THEN MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER A DRY AIRMASS RESULTS IN NO PRECIPITATION.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA HOWEVER ITS
CENTER SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL RETURN FLOW BEING ESTABLISHED AND AFTER A VERY COLD START
SATURDAY, SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES SUNDAY, THEN WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY. THIS
WILL DRIVE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING MONDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE AS MUCH OF THE LIFT
OCCURS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THERE COULD BE A SNOW SHOWER THOUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, THE AIRMASS
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MODIFY AS THE FLOW COMES MORE FROM THE
WEST AND NOT THE NORTH.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
PRESSURE APPEARS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH ONCE AGAIN, WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING MOSTLY TO OUR NORTHWEST. WHILE THE FLOW LOOKS FAIRLY
WEAK, ENOUGH WAA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR FURTHER
MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH MANY AREAS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ARRIVING LATE
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE
ALOFT IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA, WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM NEAR MAINE TO THE
GREAT LAKES THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE MUCH
MILDER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 50S. THE OCEAN AND
DELAWARE BAY ARE COLD AND IF THERE IS LIGHT ENOUGH FLOW, THEN A
COOLING AFFECT CAN BE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...MVFR SNOW AT KMIV AND KACY ENDS BY 01Z/6 FOLLOWED BY VFR
CIGS FOR A FEW HRS THEN THEN VFR CLEAR AFTER 05Z. NORTH- NORTHWEST
WIND GUST 20 KT EARLY THEN DIMINISHES. FOR THE REMAINING TAF SITES
VFR CIGS THEN BECOMING VFR CLEAR 02Z-04Z.

FRIDAY...VFR CLEAR WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS AOA 20000 FT LATE IN THE
DAY. LIGHT WIND.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING BY
LATER SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER ANY
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IT
MOVES THROUGH DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE
5 FT. IN ADDITION, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST. THEREFORE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON THE BAY, A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. FOR FRIDAY, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE SOME FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING SATURDAY. THERE IS A
CHC FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE ARE ANTICIPATING SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY DURING
MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH A SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING WE HAVE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909

THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

IT APPEARS THAT READING AND ATLANTIC CITY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF GETTING TO THEIR RECORD LOW SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

RECORD EVENT REPORTS WILL UPDATE AROUND 730 PM KACY AND KILG.
WE MAY NEED OTHERS AT THAT TIME.

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

FWIW...WATER EQUIVALENCE OF TOTAL SNOW DEPTH IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PA IS NOW WELL OVER 3 INCHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ020>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DEZ002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ015-
     019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GAINES 701
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/GORSE/O`HARA 701
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON/O`HARA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 060002
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
702 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING, THEN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE
TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO
OUR NORTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
650 PM HEADLINE ADJUSTMENT: CANCELLED I-95 CORRIDOR; BUT EXTENDED
SE NJ THROUGH CENTRAL DE AND A PORTION OF MD E ASHORE THROUGH 01Z;
AND SUSSEX COUNTY DE HAD TO EXTEND THROUGH 02Z, WHERE TOO MUCH
SNOW ON RADAR.  ALL PRODUCTS POSTED.

CONTINUED MODIFIED CALL TO ACTION FOR MORE SAFETY ON SNOW REMOVAL.

TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE ONCE SKIES CLEAR. THIS SHOULD TAKE PLACE
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER THE SNOW ENDS GIVEN A STEEP DROP IN DEW
POINTS AND CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION. RECORD LOWS ARE
POSSIBLE, PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT ARE COMPOSED OF MET/MAV AND THE MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS WHICH HAS DONE WELL AT NIGHT WITH SNOW
COVER.

WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION,
WITH THE POCONOS SEEING WIND CHILLS WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY
THRESHOLD FOR A FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE LIMITED WINDOW AND MARGINAL
VALUES IN TERMS OF AND ADVISORY, WILL JUST CONTINUE MENTION IN THE
HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY BUT STILL
COLD. DID GO A TOUCH WARMER THAN MAV/MET GIVEN THE COOL DAYTIME
BIAS WITH SNOW COVER. OTHER ELEMENTS STRAIGHT MAV/MET. CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 MPH OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW, THIS FEATURE SHOULD AMPLIFY A LITTLE
FOR A TIME OR TWO. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS ENERGY EJECTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH A RIDGE POTENTIALLY BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.
THIS RESULTS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK.
WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT
WITH THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. WE THEN MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER A DRY AIRMASS RESULTS IN NO PRECIPITATION.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA HOWEVER ITS
CENTER SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL RETURN FLOW BEING ESTABLISHED AND AFTER A VERY COLD START
SATURDAY, SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES SUNDAY, THEN WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY. THIS
WILL DRIVE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING MONDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE AS MUCH OF THE LIFT
OCCURS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THERE COULD BE A SNOW SHOWER THOUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, THE AIRMASS
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MODIFY AS THE FLOW COMES MORE FROM THE
WEST AND NOT THE NORTH.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
PRESSURE APPEARS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH ONCE AGAIN, WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING MOSTLY TO OUR NORTHWEST. WHILE THE FLOW LOOKS FAIRLY
WEAK, ENOUGH WAA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR FURTHER
MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH MANY AREAS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ARRIVING LATE
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE
ALOFT IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA, WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM NEAR MAINE TO THE
GREAT LAKES THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE MUCH
MILDER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 50S. THE OCEAN AND
DELAWARE BAY ARE COLD AND IF THERE IS LIGHT ENOUGH FLOW, THEN A
COOLING AFFECT CAN BE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...MVFR SNOW AT KMIV AND KACY ENDS BY 01Z/6 FOLLOWED BY VFR
CIGS FOR A FEW HRS THEN THEN VFR CLEAR AFTER 05Z. NORTH- NORTHWEST
WIND GUST 20 KT EARLY THEN DIMINISHES. FOR THE REMAINING TAF SITES
VFR CIGS THEN BECOMING VFR CLEAR 02Z-04Z.

FRIDAY...VFR CLEAR WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS AOA 20000 FT LATE IN THE
DAY. LIGHT WIND.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING BY
LATER SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER ANY
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IT
MOVES THROUGH DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE
5 FT. IN ADDITION, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST. THEREFORE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON THE BAY, A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. FOR FRIDAY, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE SOME FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING SATURDAY. THERE IS A
CHC FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE ARE ANTICIPATING SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY DURING
MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH A SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING WE HAVE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909

THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

IT APPEARS THAT READING AND ATLANTIC CITY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF GETTING TO THEIR RECORD LOW SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

RECORD EVENT REPORTS WILL UPDATE AROUND 730 PM KACY AND KILG.
WE MAY NEED OTHERS AT THAT TIME.

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

FWIW...WATER EQUIVALENCE OF TOTAL SNOW DEPTH IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PA IS NOW WELL OVER 3 INCHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ020>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DEZ002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ015-
     019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GAINES 701
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/GORSE/O`HARA 701
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON/O`HARA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 060002
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
702 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING, THEN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE
TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO
OUR NORTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
650 PM HEADLINE ADJUSTMENT: CANCELLED I-95 CORRIDOR; BUT EXTENDED
SE NJ THROUGH CENTRAL DE AND A PORTION OF MD E ASHORE THROUGH 01Z;
AND SUSSEX COUNTY DE HAD TO EXTEND THROUGH 02Z, WHERE TOO MUCH
SNOW ON RADAR.  ALL PRODUCTS POSTED.

CONTINUED MODIFIED CALL TO ACTION FOR MORE SAFETY ON SNOW REMOVAL.

TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE ONCE SKIES CLEAR. THIS SHOULD TAKE PLACE
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER THE SNOW ENDS GIVEN A STEEP DROP IN DEW
POINTS AND CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION. RECORD LOWS ARE
POSSIBLE, PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT ARE COMPOSED OF MET/MAV AND THE MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS WHICH HAS DONE WELL AT NIGHT WITH SNOW
COVER.

WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION,
WITH THE POCONOS SEEING WIND CHILLS WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY
THRESHOLD FOR A FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE LIMITED WINDOW AND MARGINAL
VALUES IN TERMS OF AND ADVISORY, WILL JUST CONTINUE MENTION IN THE
HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY BUT STILL
COLD. DID GO A TOUCH WARMER THAN MAV/MET GIVEN THE COOL DAYTIME
BIAS WITH SNOW COVER. OTHER ELEMENTS STRAIGHT MAV/MET. CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 MPH OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW, THIS FEATURE SHOULD AMPLIFY A LITTLE
FOR A TIME OR TWO. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS ENERGY EJECTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH A RIDGE POTENTIALLY BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.
THIS RESULTS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK.
WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT
WITH THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. WE THEN MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER A DRY AIRMASS RESULTS IN NO PRECIPITATION.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA HOWEVER ITS
CENTER SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL RETURN FLOW BEING ESTABLISHED AND AFTER A VERY COLD START
SATURDAY, SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES SUNDAY, THEN WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY. THIS
WILL DRIVE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING MONDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE AS MUCH OF THE LIFT
OCCURS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THERE COULD BE A SNOW SHOWER THOUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, THE AIRMASS
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MODIFY AS THE FLOW COMES MORE FROM THE
WEST AND NOT THE NORTH.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
PRESSURE APPEARS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH ONCE AGAIN, WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING MOSTLY TO OUR NORTHWEST. WHILE THE FLOW LOOKS FAIRLY
WEAK, ENOUGH WAA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR FURTHER
MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH MANY AREAS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ARRIVING LATE
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE
ALOFT IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA, WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM NEAR MAINE TO THE
GREAT LAKES THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE MUCH
MILDER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 50S. THE OCEAN AND
DELAWARE BAY ARE COLD AND IF THERE IS LIGHT ENOUGH FLOW, THEN A
COOLING AFFECT CAN BE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...MVFR SNOW AT KMIV AND KACY ENDS BY 01Z/6 FOLLOWED BY VFR
CIGS FOR A FEW HRS THEN THEN VFR CLEAR AFTER 05Z. NORTH- NORTHWEST
WIND GUST 20 KT EARLY THEN DIMINISHES. FOR THE REMAINING TAF SITES
VFR CIGS THEN BECOMING VFR CLEAR 02Z-04Z.

FRIDAY...VFR CLEAR WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS AOA 20000 FT LATE IN THE
DAY. LIGHT WIND.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING BY
LATER SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER ANY
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IT
MOVES THROUGH DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE
5 FT. IN ADDITION, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST. THEREFORE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON THE BAY, A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. FOR FRIDAY, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE SOME FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING SATURDAY. THERE IS A
CHC FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE ARE ANTICIPATING SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY DURING
MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH A SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING WE HAVE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909

THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

IT APPEARS THAT READING AND ATLANTIC CITY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF GETTING TO THEIR RECORD LOW SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

RECORD EVENT REPORTS WILL UPDATE AROUND 730 PM KACY AND KILG.
WE MAY NEED OTHERS AT THAT TIME.

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

FWIW...WATER EQUIVALENCE OF TOTAL SNOW DEPTH IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PA IS NOW WELL OVER 3 INCHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ020>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DEZ002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ015-
     019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GAINES 701
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/GORSE/O`HARA 701
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON/O`HARA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 052355
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
655 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUIILD IN THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

PREVIOUS...SNOW HAS JUST ABOUT EXITED THE CWA TO THE EAST AS DEEP
MOISTURE IS SHUNTED OUT BY SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN TONIGHT...AND THE RESULTANT
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR THIS EVENING. CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW LOW CLOUDS HANGING AROUND IN THE ZZV VICINITY AS
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LINGERING MOISTURE...BUT MOST AREAS WILL
CLEAR OUT. WINDS WILL SLACKEN AS WELL...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR RARE
MARCH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES IN MANY AREAS. SEE CLIMATE SECTION
FOR RECORD LOWS IN JEOPARDY. WITH GARRETT COUNTY HOLDING ON TO A
BIT OF WIND OVERNIGHT...WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY AS IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO GET APPARENT TEMPS DOWN BELOW
-15 THERE.

FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUN...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY CU TO POP. H850 WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST BY THE
END OF THE DAY...BUT WITH TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL HOVERING AROUND
-13...PLUS THE SNOWPACK...STILL EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 20S.  CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH HEADS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHEAST U.S. REMAINS
IN A PERSISTENT BUT FLATTER TROUGH ALOFT. A COUPLE OF FAIRLY WEAK
IMPULSES DROP THROUGH THE NW FLOW THIS WEEKEND. THE FIRST ARRIVES
SATURDAY AND LINGERS INTO THE FOLLOWING EVENING...AND THE SECOND
MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT. NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSED WITH QPF
POTENTIAL FROM EITHER SYSTEM GIVEN THEIR NORTHERN ORIGINS AND
THEREFORE LESSER MOISTURE CONTENT. STILL THINK CHANCE POPS LOOK
APPROPRIATE FOR MAINLY AREAS EAST OF OHIO SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.
MOST PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW...BUT A LITTLE RAIN MAY MIX IN ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIP DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ANY POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATION LOOKS QUITE LIGHT. SUNDAY WILL
FEATURE A LULL IN ACTIVITY...BEFORE THE NEXT APPROACHES LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING BY DAY AND BELOW
BY NIGHT...EXACTLY WHAT IS NEEDED FOR A SLOW AND CONTROLLED MELT. CL

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
MIDWEEK. A SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMICS...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80. MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR SETUP BY MIDWEEK...BUT
AGAIN EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACTS AS ENERGY WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH.
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED WERE BASED MAINLY ON A BLEND OF EC AND
GEFS GUIDANCE,

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AS MID LEVEL
CLOUDS CLEAR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. CU RULE INDICATES JUST
SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CU FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A WEAK SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OHIO RIVER AT THE POINT IN
PITTSBURGH...AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR CHARLEROI AND
ELIZABETH ON THE MONONGAHELA RIVER. CRESTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED
AT THESE POINTS...AND LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1926.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1960.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...2 SET IN 1978.

PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...2 SET IN 1901.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...12 SET IN
1960...1969...AND 1972.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...5 SET IN 1960.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 052355
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
655 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUIILD IN THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

PREVIOUS...SNOW HAS JUST ABOUT EXITED THE CWA TO THE EAST AS DEEP
MOISTURE IS SHUNTED OUT BY SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN TONIGHT...AND THE RESULTANT
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR THIS EVENING. CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW LOW CLOUDS HANGING AROUND IN THE ZZV VICINITY AS
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LINGERING MOISTURE...BUT MOST AREAS WILL
CLEAR OUT. WINDS WILL SLACKEN AS WELL...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR RARE
MARCH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES IN MANY AREAS. SEE CLIMATE SECTION
FOR RECORD LOWS IN JEOPARDY. WITH GARRETT COUNTY HOLDING ON TO A
BIT OF WIND OVERNIGHT...WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY AS IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO GET APPARENT TEMPS DOWN BELOW
-15 THERE.

FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUN...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY CU TO POP. H850 WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST BY THE
END OF THE DAY...BUT WITH TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL HOVERING AROUND
-13...PLUS THE SNOWPACK...STILL EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 20S.  CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH HEADS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHEAST U.S. REMAINS
IN A PERSISTENT BUT FLATTER TROUGH ALOFT. A COUPLE OF FAIRLY WEAK
IMPULSES DROP THROUGH THE NW FLOW THIS WEEKEND. THE FIRST ARRIVES
SATURDAY AND LINGERS INTO THE FOLLOWING EVENING...AND THE SECOND
MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT. NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSED WITH QPF
POTENTIAL FROM EITHER SYSTEM GIVEN THEIR NORTHERN ORIGINS AND
THEREFORE LESSER MOISTURE CONTENT. STILL THINK CHANCE POPS LOOK
APPROPRIATE FOR MAINLY AREAS EAST OF OHIO SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.
MOST PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW...BUT A LITTLE RAIN MAY MIX IN ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIP DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ANY POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATION LOOKS QUITE LIGHT. SUNDAY WILL
FEATURE A LULL IN ACTIVITY...BEFORE THE NEXT APPROACHES LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING BY DAY AND BELOW
BY NIGHT...EXACTLY WHAT IS NEEDED FOR A SLOW AND CONTROLLED MELT. CL

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
MIDWEEK. A SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMICS...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80. MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR SETUP BY MIDWEEK...BUT
AGAIN EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACTS AS ENERGY WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH.
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED WERE BASED MAINLY ON A BLEND OF EC AND
GEFS GUIDANCE,

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AS MID LEVEL
CLOUDS CLEAR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. CU RULE INDICATES JUST
SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CU FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A WEAK SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OHIO RIVER AT THE POINT IN
PITTSBURGH...AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR CHARLEROI AND
ELIZABETH ON THE MONONGAHELA RIVER. CRESTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED
AT THESE POINTS...AND LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1926.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1960.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...2 SET IN 1978.

PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...2 SET IN 1901.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...12 SET IN
1960...1969...AND 1972.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...5 SET IN 1960.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 052355
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
655 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUIILD IN THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

PREVIOUS...SNOW HAS JUST ABOUT EXITED THE CWA TO THE EAST AS DEEP
MOISTURE IS SHUNTED OUT BY SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN TONIGHT...AND THE RESULTANT
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR THIS EVENING. CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW LOW CLOUDS HANGING AROUND IN THE ZZV VICINITY AS
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LINGERING MOISTURE...BUT MOST AREAS WILL
CLEAR OUT. WINDS WILL SLACKEN AS WELL...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR RARE
MARCH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES IN MANY AREAS. SEE CLIMATE SECTION
FOR RECORD LOWS IN JEOPARDY. WITH GARRETT COUNTY HOLDING ON TO A
BIT OF WIND OVERNIGHT...WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY AS IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO GET APPARENT TEMPS DOWN BELOW
-15 THERE.

FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUN...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY CU TO POP. H850 WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST BY THE
END OF THE DAY...BUT WITH TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL HOVERING AROUND
-13...PLUS THE SNOWPACK...STILL EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 20S.  CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH HEADS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHEAST U.S. REMAINS
IN A PERSISTENT BUT FLATTER TROUGH ALOFT. A COUPLE OF FAIRLY WEAK
IMPULSES DROP THROUGH THE NW FLOW THIS WEEKEND. THE FIRST ARRIVES
SATURDAY AND LINGERS INTO THE FOLLOWING EVENING...AND THE SECOND
MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT. NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSED WITH QPF
POTENTIAL FROM EITHER SYSTEM GIVEN THEIR NORTHERN ORIGINS AND
THEREFORE LESSER MOISTURE CONTENT. STILL THINK CHANCE POPS LOOK
APPROPRIATE FOR MAINLY AREAS EAST OF OHIO SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.
MOST PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW...BUT A LITTLE RAIN MAY MIX IN ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIP DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ANY POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATION LOOKS QUITE LIGHT. SUNDAY WILL
FEATURE A LULL IN ACTIVITY...BEFORE THE NEXT APPROACHES LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING BY DAY AND BELOW
BY NIGHT...EXACTLY WHAT IS NEEDED FOR A SLOW AND CONTROLLED MELT. CL

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
MIDWEEK. A SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMICS...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80. MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR SETUP BY MIDWEEK...BUT
AGAIN EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACTS AS ENERGY WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH.
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED WERE BASED MAINLY ON A BLEND OF EC AND
GEFS GUIDANCE,

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AS MID LEVEL
CLOUDS CLEAR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. CU RULE INDICATES JUST
SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CU FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A WEAK SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OHIO RIVER AT THE POINT IN
PITTSBURGH...AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR CHARLEROI AND
ELIZABETH ON THE MONONGAHELA RIVER. CRESTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED
AT THESE POINTS...AND LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1926.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1960.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...2 SET IN 1978.

PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...2 SET IN 1901.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...12 SET IN
1960...1969...AND 1972.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...5 SET IN 1960.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 052355
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
655 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUIILD IN THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

PREVIOUS...SNOW HAS JUST ABOUT EXITED THE CWA TO THE EAST AS DEEP
MOISTURE IS SHUNTED OUT BY SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN TONIGHT...AND THE RESULTANT
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR THIS EVENING. CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW LOW CLOUDS HANGING AROUND IN THE ZZV VICINITY AS
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LINGERING MOISTURE...BUT MOST AREAS WILL
CLEAR OUT. WINDS WILL SLACKEN AS WELL...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR RARE
MARCH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES IN MANY AREAS. SEE CLIMATE SECTION
FOR RECORD LOWS IN JEOPARDY. WITH GARRETT COUNTY HOLDING ON TO A
BIT OF WIND OVERNIGHT...WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY AS IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO GET APPARENT TEMPS DOWN BELOW
-15 THERE.

FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUN...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY CU TO POP. H850 WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST BY THE
END OF THE DAY...BUT WITH TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL HOVERING AROUND
-13...PLUS THE SNOWPACK...STILL EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 20S.  CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH HEADS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHEAST U.S. REMAINS
IN A PERSISTENT BUT FLATTER TROUGH ALOFT. A COUPLE OF FAIRLY WEAK
IMPULSES DROP THROUGH THE NW FLOW THIS WEEKEND. THE FIRST ARRIVES
SATURDAY AND LINGERS INTO THE FOLLOWING EVENING...AND THE SECOND
MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT. NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSED WITH QPF
POTENTIAL FROM EITHER SYSTEM GIVEN THEIR NORTHERN ORIGINS AND
THEREFORE LESSER MOISTURE CONTENT. STILL THINK CHANCE POPS LOOK
APPROPRIATE FOR MAINLY AREAS EAST OF OHIO SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.
MOST PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW...BUT A LITTLE RAIN MAY MIX IN ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIP DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ANY POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATION LOOKS QUITE LIGHT. SUNDAY WILL
FEATURE A LULL IN ACTIVITY...BEFORE THE NEXT APPROACHES LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING BY DAY AND BELOW
BY NIGHT...EXACTLY WHAT IS NEEDED FOR A SLOW AND CONTROLLED MELT. CL

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
MIDWEEK. A SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMICS...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80. MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR SETUP BY MIDWEEK...BUT
AGAIN EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACTS AS ENERGY WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH.
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED WERE BASED MAINLY ON A BLEND OF EC AND
GEFS GUIDANCE,

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AS MID LEVEL
CLOUDS CLEAR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. CU RULE INDICATES JUST
SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CU FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A WEAK SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OHIO RIVER AT THE POINT IN
PITTSBURGH...AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR CHARLEROI AND
ELIZABETH ON THE MONONGAHELA RIVER. CRESTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED
AT THESE POINTS...AND LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1926.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1960.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...2 SET IN 1978.

PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...2 SET IN 1901.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...12 SET IN
1960...1969...AND 1972.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...5 SET IN 1960.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPHI 052302
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
602 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING, THEN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE
TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO
OUR NORTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
630PM ESTF SENT AROUND 550 PM WITH WARNING CANCELLATION. NEXT
EXPIRE WILL OCCUR AT 650 PM. STORM IS WINDING DOWN. WE MODIFIED
THE CALL TO ACTION FOR MORE SAFETY ON SNOW REMOVAL. WE ENDED THE
SNOW PER THE LATEST VERSIONS OF THE HRRR.


FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND THE PHILADELPHIA METRO REGION, STORM
ENDS BY 7 PM.

IN THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY, THE CHANGEOVER WAS SLOW
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL CUT INTO THE ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
AND SLEET. FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND 700MB FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING ARE TAKING PLACE RESULTING IN HEAVIER BANDING, SO NOT A
DRASTIC REDUCTION IN TOTALS. SUSSEX AND CAPE MAY COUNTIES MAY HAVE
THE HARDEST TIME REACHING WARNING CRITERIA (4-6 OR SO) WITH AREAS
FURTHER NORTH ENDING UP WITH 6 INCHES OR SO.

TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE ONCE SKIES CLEAR. THIS SHOULD TAKE PLACE
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER THE SNOW ENDS GIVEN A STEEP DROP IN DEW
POINTS AND CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION. RECORD LOWS ARE
POSSIBLE, PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT ARE COMPOSED OF MET/MAV AND THE MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS WHICH HAS DONE WELL AT NIGHT WITH SNOW
COVER.

WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION,
WITH THE POCONOS SEEING WIND CHILLS WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY
THRESHOLD FOR A FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE LIMITED WINDOW AND MARGINAL
VALUES IN TERMS OF AND ADVISORY, WILL JUST CONTINUE MENTION IN THE
HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY BUT STILL
COLD. DID GO A TOUCH WARMER THAN MAV/MET GIVEN THE COOL DAYTIME BIAS
WITH SNOW COVER. OTHER ELEMENTS STRAIGHT MAV/MET. CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 MPH OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW, THIS FEATURE SHOULD AMPLIFY A LITTLE
FOR A TIME OR TWO. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS ENERGY EJECTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH A RIDGE POTENTIALLY BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.
THIS RESULTS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK.
WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT
WITH THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. WE THEN MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER A DRY AIRMASS RESULTS IN NO PRECIPITATION.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA HOWEVER ITS
CENTER SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL RETURN FLOW BEING ESTABLISHED AND AFTER A VERY COLD START
SATURDAY, SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES SUNDAY, THEN WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY. THIS
WILL DRIVE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING MONDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE AS MUCH OF THE LIFT
OCCURS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THERE COULD BE A SNOW SHOWER THOUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, THE AIRMASS
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MODIFY AS THE FLOW COMES MORE FROM THE
WEST AND NOT THE NORTH.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
PRESSURE APPEARS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH ONCE AGAIN, WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING MOSTLY TO OUR NORTHWEST. WHILE THE FLOW LOOKS FAIRLY
WEAK, ENOUGH WAA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR FURTHER
MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH MANY AREAS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ARRIVING LATE
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE
ALOFT IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA, WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM NEAR MAINE TO THE
GREAT LAKES THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE MUCH
MILDER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 50S. THE OCEAN AND
DELAWARE BAY ARE COLD AND IF THERE IS LIGHT ENOUGH FLOW, THEN A
COOLING AFFECT CAN BE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...IFR/LIFR SNOW AT KMIV AND KACY ENDS AROUND 00Z/6 FOLLOWED
BY VFR CIGS FOR A FEW HRS THEN THEN VFR CLEAR AFTER 04X. NORTH-
NORTHWEST WIND GUST 20 KT EARLY THEN DIMINISHES. FOR THE REMAINING
TAF SITES VFR CIGS WITH ANY REMAINING 4MI FLURRIES ENDING BY 00Z
AND THEN BECOMING VFR CLEAR 01Z-03Z.

FRIDAY...VFR CLEAR WITH CIRRUS LATE IN THE DAY. LIGHT WIND.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING BY
LATER SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER ANY
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IT
MOVES THROUGH DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE
5 FT. IN ADDITION, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST. THEREFORE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON THE BAY, A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. FOR FRIDAY, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE SOME FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING SATURDAY. THERE IS A
CHC FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE ARE ANTICIPATING SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY DURING
MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH A SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING WE HAVE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909

THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

IT APPEARS THAT READING AND ATLANTIC CITY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF GETTING TO THEIR RECORD LOW SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

RECORD EVENT REPORTS WILL UPDATE AROUND 730 PM KACY AND KILG.
WE MAY NEED OTHERS AT THAT TIME.

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

FWIW...WATER EQUIVALENCE OF TOTAL SNOW DEPTH IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PA IS NOW WELL OVER 3 INCHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-
     071.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ013-
     014-016>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GAINES 601
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GAINES/GORSE/O`HARA 601
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON/O`HARA 601
CLIMATE...601




000
FXUS61 KPHI 052302
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
602 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING, THEN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE
TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO
OUR NORTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
630PM ESTF SENT AROUND 550 PM WITH WARNING CANCELLATION. NEXT
EXPIRE WILL OCCUR AT 650 PM. STORM IS WINDING DOWN. WE MODIFIED
THE CALL TO ACTION FOR MORE SAFETY ON SNOW REMOVAL. WE ENDED THE
SNOW PER THE LATEST VERSIONS OF THE HRRR.


FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND THE PHILADELPHIA METRO REGION, STORM
ENDS BY 7 PM.

IN THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY, THE CHANGEOVER WAS SLOW
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL CUT INTO THE ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
AND SLEET. FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND 700MB FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING ARE TAKING PLACE RESULTING IN HEAVIER BANDING, SO NOT A
DRASTIC REDUCTION IN TOTALS. SUSSEX AND CAPE MAY COUNTIES MAY HAVE
THE HARDEST TIME REACHING WARNING CRITERIA (4-6 OR SO) WITH AREAS
FURTHER NORTH ENDING UP WITH 6 INCHES OR SO.

TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE ONCE SKIES CLEAR. THIS SHOULD TAKE PLACE
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER THE SNOW ENDS GIVEN A STEEP DROP IN DEW
POINTS AND CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION. RECORD LOWS ARE
POSSIBLE, PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT ARE COMPOSED OF MET/MAV AND THE MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS WHICH HAS DONE WELL AT NIGHT WITH SNOW
COVER.

WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION,
WITH THE POCONOS SEEING WIND CHILLS WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY
THRESHOLD FOR A FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE LIMITED WINDOW AND MARGINAL
VALUES IN TERMS OF AND ADVISORY, WILL JUST CONTINUE MENTION IN THE
HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY BUT STILL
COLD. DID GO A TOUCH WARMER THAN MAV/MET GIVEN THE COOL DAYTIME BIAS
WITH SNOW COVER. OTHER ELEMENTS STRAIGHT MAV/MET. CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 MPH OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW, THIS FEATURE SHOULD AMPLIFY A LITTLE
FOR A TIME OR TWO. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS ENERGY EJECTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH A RIDGE POTENTIALLY BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.
THIS RESULTS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK.
WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT
WITH THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. WE THEN MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER A DRY AIRMASS RESULTS IN NO PRECIPITATION.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA HOWEVER ITS
CENTER SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL RETURN FLOW BEING ESTABLISHED AND AFTER A VERY COLD START
SATURDAY, SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES SUNDAY, THEN WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY. THIS
WILL DRIVE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING MONDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE AS MUCH OF THE LIFT
OCCURS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THERE COULD BE A SNOW SHOWER THOUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, THE AIRMASS
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MODIFY AS THE FLOW COMES MORE FROM THE
WEST AND NOT THE NORTH.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
PRESSURE APPEARS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH ONCE AGAIN, WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING MOSTLY TO OUR NORTHWEST. WHILE THE FLOW LOOKS FAIRLY
WEAK, ENOUGH WAA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR FURTHER
MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH MANY AREAS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ARRIVING LATE
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE
ALOFT IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA, WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM NEAR MAINE TO THE
GREAT LAKES THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE MUCH
MILDER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 50S. THE OCEAN AND
DELAWARE BAY ARE COLD AND IF THERE IS LIGHT ENOUGH FLOW, THEN A
COOLING AFFECT CAN BE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...IFR/LIFR SNOW AT KMIV AND KACY ENDS AROUND 00Z/6 FOLLOWED
BY VFR CIGS FOR A FEW HRS THEN THEN VFR CLEAR AFTER 04X. NORTH-
NORTHWEST WIND GUST 20 KT EARLY THEN DIMINISHES. FOR THE REMAINING
TAF SITES VFR CIGS WITH ANY REMAINING 4MI FLURRIES ENDING BY 00Z
AND THEN BECOMING VFR CLEAR 01Z-03Z.

FRIDAY...VFR CLEAR WITH CIRRUS LATE IN THE DAY. LIGHT WIND.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING BY
LATER SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER ANY
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IT
MOVES THROUGH DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE
5 FT. IN ADDITION, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST. THEREFORE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON THE BAY, A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. FOR FRIDAY, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE SOME FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING SATURDAY. THERE IS A
CHC FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE ARE ANTICIPATING SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY DURING
MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH A SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING WE HAVE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909

THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

IT APPEARS THAT READING AND ATLANTIC CITY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF GETTING TO THEIR RECORD LOW SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

RECORD EVENT REPORTS WILL UPDATE AROUND 730 PM KACY AND KILG.
WE MAY NEED OTHERS AT THAT TIME.

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

FWIW...WATER EQUIVALENCE OF TOTAL SNOW DEPTH IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PA IS NOW WELL OVER 3 INCHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-
     071.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ013-
     014-016>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GAINES 601
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GAINES/GORSE/O`HARA 601
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON/O`HARA 601
CLIMATE...601




000
FXUS61 KPHI 052302
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
602 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING, THEN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE
TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO
OUR NORTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
630PM ESTF SENT AROUND 550 PM WITH WARNING CANCELLATION. NEXT
EXPIRE WILL OCCUR AT 650 PM. STORM IS WINDING DOWN. WE MODIFIED
THE CALL TO ACTION FOR MORE SAFETY ON SNOW REMOVAL. WE ENDED THE
SNOW PER THE LATEST VERSIONS OF THE HRRR.


FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND THE PHILADELPHIA METRO REGION, STORM
ENDS BY 7 PM.

IN THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY, THE CHANGEOVER WAS SLOW
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL CUT INTO THE ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
AND SLEET. FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND 700MB FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING ARE TAKING PLACE RESULTING IN HEAVIER BANDING, SO NOT A
DRASTIC REDUCTION IN TOTALS. SUSSEX AND CAPE MAY COUNTIES MAY HAVE
THE HARDEST TIME REACHING WARNING CRITERIA (4-6 OR SO) WITH AREAS
FURTHER NORTH ENDING UP WITH 6 INCHES OR SO.

TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE ONCE SKIES CLEAR. THIS SHOULD TAKE PLACE
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER THE SNOW ENDS GIVEN A STEEP DROP IN DEW
POINTS AND CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION. RECORD LOWS ARE
POSSIBLE, PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT ARE COMPOSED OF MET/MAV AND THE MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS WHICH HAS DONE WELL AT NIGHT WITH SNOW
COVER.

WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION,
WITH THE POCONOS SEEING WIND CHILLS WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY
THRESHOLD FOR A FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE LIMITED WINDOW AND MARGINAL
VALUES IN TERMS OF AND ADVISORY, WILL JUST CONTINUE MENTION IN THE
HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY BUT STILL
COLD. DID GO A TOUCH WARMER THAN MAV/MET GIVEN THE COOL DAYTIME BIAS
WITH SNOW COVER. OTHER ELEMENTS STRAIGHT MAV/MET. CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 MPH OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW, THIS FEATURE SHOULD AMPLIFY A LITTLE
FOR A TIME OR TWO. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS ENERGY EJECTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH A RIDGE POTENTIALLY BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.
THIS RESULTS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK.
WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT
WITH THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. WE THEN MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER A DRY AIRMASS RESULTS IN NO PRECIPITATION.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA HOWEVER ITS
CENTER SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL RETURN FLOW BEING ESTABLISHED AND AFTER A VERY COLD START
SATURDAY, SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES SUNDAY, THEN WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY. THIS
WILL DRIVE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING MONDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE AS MUCH OF THE LIFT
OCCURS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THERE COULD BE A SNOW SHOWER THOUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, THE AIRMASS
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MODIFY AS THE FLOW COMES MORE FROM THE
WEST AND NOT THE NORTH.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
PRESSURE APPEARS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH ONCE AGAIN, WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING MOSTLY TO OUR NORTHWEST. WHILE THE FLOW LOOKS FAIRLY
WEAK, ENOUGH WAA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR FURTHER
MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH MANY AREAS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ARRIVING LATE
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE
ALOFT IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA, WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM NEAR MAINE TO THE
GREAT LAKES THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE MUCH
MILDER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 50S. THE OCEAN AND
DELAWARE BAY ARE COLD AND IF THERE IS LIGHT ENOUGH FLOW, THEN A
COOLING AFFECT CAN BE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...IFR/LIFR SNOW AT KMIV AND KACY ENDS AROUND 00Z/6 FOLLOWED
BY VFR CIGS FOR A FEW HRS THEN THEN VFR CLEAR AFTER 04X. NORTH-
NORTHWEST WIND GUST 20 KT EARLY THEN DIMINISHES. FOR THE REMAINING
TAF SITES VFR CIGS WITH ANY REMAINING 4MI FLURRIES ENDING BY 00Z
AND THEN BECOMING VFR CLEAR 01Z-03Z.

FRIDAY...VFR CLEAR WITH CIRRUS LATE IN THE DAY. LIGHT WIND.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING BY
LATER SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER ANY
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IT
MOVES THROUGH DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE
5 FT. IN ADDITION, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST. THEREFORE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON THE BAY, A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. FOR FRIDAY, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE SOME FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING SATURDAY. THERE IS A
CHC FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE ARE ANTICIPATING SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY DURING
MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH A SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING WE HAVE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909

THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

IT APPEARS THAT READING AND ATLANTIC CITY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF GETTING TO THEIR RECORD LOW SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

RECORD EVENT REPORTS WILL UPDATE AROUND 730 PM KACY AND KILG.
WE MAY NEED OTHERS AT THAT TIME.

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

FWIW...WATER EQUIVALENCE OF TOTAL SNOW DEPTH IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PA IS NOW WELL OVER 3 INCHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-
     071.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ013-
     014-016>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GAINES 601
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GAINES/GORSE/O`HARA 601
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON/O`HARA 601
CLIMATE...601




000
FXUS61 KPHI 052302
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
602 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING, THEN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE
TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO
OUR NORTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
630PM ESTF SENT AROUND 550 PM WITH WARNING CANCELLATION. NEXT
EXPIRE WILL OCCUR AT 650 PM. STORM IS WINDING DOWN. WE MODIFIED
THE CALL TO ACTION FOR MORE SAFETY ON SNOW REMOVAL. WE ENDED THE
SNOW PER THE LATEST VERSIONS OF THE HRRR.


FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND THE PHILADELPHIA METRO REGION, STORM
ENDS BY 7 PM.

IN THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY, THE CHANGEOVER WAS SLOW
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL CUT INTO THE ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
AND SLEET. FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND 700MB FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING ARE TAKING PLACE RESULTING IN HEAVIER BANDING, SO NOT A
DRASTIC REDUCTION IN TOTALS. SUSSEX AND CAPE MAY COUNTIES MAY HAVE
THE HARDEST TIME REACHING WARNING CRITERIA (4-6 OR SO) WITH AREAS
FURTHER NORTH ENDING UP WITH 6 INCHES OR SO.

TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE ONCE SKIES CLEAR. THIS SHOULD TAKE PLACE
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER THE SNOW ENDS GIVEN A STEEP DROP IN DEW
POINTS AND CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION. RECORD LOWS ARE
POSSIBLE, PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT ARE COMPOSED OF MET/MAV AND THE MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS WHICH HAS DONE WELL AT NIGHT WITH SNOW
COVER.

WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION,
WITH THE POCONOS SEEING WIND CHILLS WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY
THRESHOLD FOR A FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE LIMITED WINDOW AND MARGINAL
VALUES IN TERMS OF AND ADVISORY, WILL JUST CONTINUE MENTION IN THE
HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY BUT STILL
COLD. DID GO A TOUCH WARMER THAN MAV/MET GIVEN THE COOL DAYTIME BIAS
WITH SNOW COVER. OTHER ELEMENTS STRAIGHT MAV/MET. CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 MPH OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW, THIS FEATURE SHOULD AMPLIFY A LITTLE
FOR A TIME OR TWO. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS ENERGY EJECTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH A RIDGE POTENTIALLY BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.
THIS RESULTS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK.
WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT
WITH THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. WE THEN MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER A DRY AIRMASS RESULTS IN NO PRECIPITATION.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA HOWEVER ITS
CENTER SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL RETURN FLOW BEING ESTABLISHED AND AFTER A VERY COLD START
SATURDAY, SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES SUNDAY, THEN WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY. THIS
WILL DRIVE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING MONDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE AS MUCH OF THE LIFT
OCCURS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THERE COULD BE A SNOW SHOWER THOUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, THE AIRMASS
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MODIFY AS THE FLOW COMES MORE FROM THE
WEST AND NOT THE NORTH.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
PRESSURE APPEARS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH ONCE AGAIN, WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING MOSTLY TO OUR NORTHWEST. WHILE THE FLOW LOOKS FAIRLY
WEAK, ENOUGH WAA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR FURTHER
MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH MANY AREAS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ARRIVING LATE
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE
ALOFT IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA, WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM NEAR MAINE TO THE
GREAT LAKES THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE MUCH
MILDER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 50S. THE OCEAN AND
DELAWARE BAY ARE COLD AND IF THERE IS LIGHT ENOUGH FLOW, THEN A
COOLING AFFECT CAN BE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...IFR/LIFR SNOW AT KMIV AND KACY ENDS AROUND 00Z/6 FOLLOWED
BY VFR CIGS FOR A FEW HRS THEN THEN VFR CLEAR AFTER 04X. NORTH-
NORTHWEST WIND GUST 20 KT EARLY THEN DIMINISHES. FOR THE REMAINING
TAF SITES VFR CIGS WITH ANY REMAINING 4MI FLURRIES ENDING BY 00Z
AND THEN BECOMING VFR CLEAR 01Z-03Z.

FRIDAY...VFR CLEAR WITH CIRRUS LATE IN THE DAY. LIGHT WIND.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING BY
LATER SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER ANY
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IT
MOVES THROUGH DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE
5 FT. IN ADDITION, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST. THEREFORE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON THE BAY, A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. FOR FRIDAY, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE SOME FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING SATURDAY. THERE IS A
CHC FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE ARE ANTICIPATING SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY DURING
MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH A SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING WE HAVE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909

THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

IT APPEARS THAT READING AND ATLANTIC CITY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF GETTING TO THEIR RECORD LOW SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

RECORD EVENT REPORTS WILL UPDATE AROUND 730 PM KACY AND KILG.
WE MAY NEED OTHERS AT THAT TIME.

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

FWIW...WATER EQUIVALENCE OF TOTAL SNOW DEPTH IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PA IS NOW WELL OVER 3 INCHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-
     071.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ013-
     014-016>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GAINES 601
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GAINES/GORSE/O`HARA 601
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON/O`HARA 601
CLIMATE...601




000
FXUS61 KPHI 052302
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
602 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING, THEN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE
TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO
OUR NORTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
630PM ESTF SENT AROUND 550 PM WITH WARNING CANCELLATION. NEXT
EXPIRE WILL OCCUR AT 650 PM. STORM IS WINDING DOWN. WE MODIFIED
THE CALL TO ACTION FOR MORE SAFETY ON SNOW REMOVAL. WE ENDED THE
SNOW PER THE LATEST VERSIONS OF THE HRRR.


FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND THE PHILADELPHIA METRO REGION, STORM
ENDS BY 7 PM.

IN THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY, THE CHANGEOVER WAS SLOW
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL CUT INTO THE ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
AND SLEET. FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND 700MB FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING ARE TAKING PLACE RESULTING IN HEAVIER BANDING, SO NOT A
DRASTIC REDUCTION IN TOTALS. SUSSEX AND CAPE MAY COUNTIES MAY HAVE
THE HARDEST TIME REACHING WARNING CRITERIA (4-6 OR SO) WITH AREAS
FURTHER NORTH ENDING UP WITH 6 INCHES OR SO.

TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE ONCE SKIES CLEAR. THIS SHOULD TAKE PLACE
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER THE SNOW ENDS GIVEN A STEEP DROP IN DEW
POINTS AND CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION. RECORD LOWS ARE
POSSIBLE, PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT ARE COMPOSED OF MET/MAV AND THE MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS WHICH HAS DONE WELL AT NIGHT WITH SNOW
COVER.

WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION,
WITH THE POCONOS SEEING WIND CHILLS WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY
THRESHOLD FOR A FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE LIMITED WINDOW AND MARGINAL
VALUES IN TERMS OF AND ADVISORY, WILL JUST CONTINUE MENTION IN THE
HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY BUT STILL
COLD. DID GO A TOUCH WARMER THAN MAV/MET GIVEN THE COOL DAYTIME BIAS
WITH SNOW COVER. OTHER ELEMENTS STRAIGHT MAV/MET. CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 MPH OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW, THIS FEATURE SHOULD AMPLIFY A LITTLE
FOR A TIME OR TWO. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS ENERGY EJECTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH A RIDGE POTENTIALLY BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.
THIS RESULTS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK.
WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT
WITH THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. WE THEN MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER A DRY AIRMASS RESULTS IN NO PRECIPITATION.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA HOWEVER ITS
CENTER SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL RETURN FLOW BEING ESTABLISHED AND AFTER A VERY COLD START
SATURDAY, SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES SUNDAY, THEN WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY. THIS
WILL DRIVE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING MONDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE AS MUCH OF THE LIFT
OCCURS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THERE COULD BE A SNOW SHOWER THOUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, THE AIRMASS
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MODIFY AS THE FLOW COMES MORE FROM THE
WEST AND NOT THE NORTH.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
PRESSURE APPEARS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH ONCE AGAIN, WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING MOSTLY TO OUR NORTHWEST. WHILE THE FLOW LOOKS FAIRLY
WEAK, ENOUGH WAA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR FURTHER
MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH MANY AREAS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ARRIVING LATE
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE
ALOFT IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA, WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM NEAR MAINE TO THE
GREAT LAKES THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE MUCH
MILDER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 50S. THE OCEAN AND
DELAWARE BAY ARE COLD AND IF THERE IS LIGHT ENOUGH FLOW, THEN A
COOLING AFFECT CAN BE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...IFR/LIFR SNOW AT KMIV AND KACY ENDS AROUND 00Z/6 FOLLOWED
BY VFR CIGS FOR A FEW HRS THEN THEN VFR CLEAR AFTER 04X. NORTH-
NORTHWEST WIND GUST 20 KT EARLY THEN DIMINISHES. FOR THE REMAINING
TAF SITES VFR CIGS WITH ANY REMAINING 4MI FLURRIES ENDING BY 00Z
AND THEN BECOMING VFR CLEAR 01Z-03Z.

FRIDAY...VFR CLEAR WITH CIRRUS LATE IN THE DAY. LIGHT WIND.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING BY
LATER SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER ANY
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IT
MOVES THROUGH DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE
5 FT. IN ADDITION, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST. THEREFORE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON THE BAY, A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. FOR FRIDAY, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE SOME FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING SATURDAY. THERE IS A
CHC FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE ARE ANTICIPATING SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY DURING
MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH A SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING WE HAVE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909

THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

IT APPEARS THAT READING AND ATLANTIC CITY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF GETTING TO THEIR RECORD LOW SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

RECORD EVENT REPORTS WILL UPDATE AROUND 730 PM KACY AND KILG.
WE MAY NEED OTHERS AT THAT TIME.

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

FWIW...WATER EQUIVALENCE OF TOTAL SNOW DEPTH IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PA IS NOW WELL OVER 3 INCHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-
     071.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ013-
     014-016>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GAINES 601
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GAINES/GORSE/O`HARA 601
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON/O`HARA 601
CLIMATE...601



000
FXUS61 KPHI 052302
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
602 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING, THEN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE
TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO
OUR NORTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
630PM ESTF SENT AROUND 550 PM WITH WARNING CANCELLATION. NEXT
EXPIRE WILL OCCUR AT 650 PM. STORM IS WINDING DOWN. WE MODIFIED
THE CALL TO ACTION FOR MORE SAFETY ON SNOW REMOVAL. WE ENDED THE
SNOW PER THE LATEST VERSIONS OF THE HRRR.


FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND THE PHILADELPHIA METRO REGION, STORM
ENDS BY 7 PM.

IN THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY, THE CHANGEOVER WAS SLOW
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL CUT INTO THE ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
AND SLEET. FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND 700MB FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING ARE TAKING PLACE RESULTING IN HEAVIER BANDING, SO NOT A
DRASTIC REDUCTION IN TOTALS. SUSSEX AND CAPE MAY COUNTIES MAY HAVE
THE HARDEST TIME REACHING WARNING CRITERIA (4-6 OR SO) WITH AREAS
FURTHER NORTH ENDING UP WITH 6 INCHES OR SO.

TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE ONCE SKIES CLEAR. THIS SHOULD TAKE PLACE
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER THE SNOW ENDS GIVEN A STEEP DROP IN DEW
POINTS AND CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION. RECORD LOWS ARE
POSSIBLE, PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT ARE COMPOSED OF MET/MAV AND THE MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS WHICH HAS DONE WELL AT NIGHT WITH SNOW
COVER.

WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION,
WITH THE POCONOS SEEING WIND CHILLS WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY
THRESHOLD FOR A FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE LIMITED WINDOW AND MARGINAL
VALUES IN TERMS OF AND ADVISORY, WILL JUST CONTINUE MENTION IN THE
HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY BUT STILL
COLD. DID GO A TOUCH WARMER THAN MAV/MET GIVEN THE COOL DAYTIME BIAS
WITH SNOW COVER. OTHER ELEMENTS STRAIGHT MAV/MET. CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 MPH OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW, THIS FEATURE SHOULD AMPLIFY A LITTLE
FOR A TIME OR TWO. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS ENERGY EJECTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH A RIDGE POTENTIALLY BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.
THIS RESULTS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK.
WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT
WITH THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. WE THEN MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER A DRY AIRMASS RESULTS IN NO PRECIPITATION.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA HOWEVER ITS
CENTER SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL RETURN FLOW BEING ESTABLISHED AND AFTER A VERY COLD START
SATURDAY, SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES SUNDAY, THEN WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY. THIS
WILL DRIVE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING MONDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE AS MUCH OF THE LIFT
OCCURS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THERE COULD BE A SNOW SHOWER THOUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, THE AIRMASS
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MODIFY AS THE FLOW COMES MORE FROM THE
WEST AND NOT THE NORTH.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
PRESSURE APPEARS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH ONCE AGAIN, WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING MOSTLY TO OUR NORTHWEST. WHILE THE FLOW LOOKS FAIRLY
WEAK, ENOUGH WAA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR FURTHER
MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH MANY AREAS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ARRIVING LATE
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE
ALOFT IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA, WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM NEAR MAINE TO THE
GREAT LAKES THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE MUCH
MILDER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 50S. THE OCEAN AND
DELAWARE BAY ARE COLD AND IF THERE IS LIGHT ENOUGH FLOW, THEN A
COOLING AFFECT CAN BE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...IFR/LIFR SNOW AT KMIV AND KACY ENDS AROUND 00Z/6 FOLLOWED
BY VFR CIGS FOR A FEW HRS THEN THEN VFR CLEAR AFTER 04X. NORTH-
NORTHWEST WIND GUST 20 KT EARLY THEN DIMINISHES. FOR THE REMAINING
TAF SITES VFR CIGS WITH ANY REMAINING 4MI FLURRIES ENDING BY 00Z
AND THEN BECOMING VFR CLEAR 01Z-03Z.

FRIDAY...VFR CLEAR WITH CIRRUS LATE IN THE DAY. LIGHT WIND.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING BY
LATER SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER ANY
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IT
MOVES THROUGH DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE
5 FT. IN ADDITION, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST. THEREFORE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON THE BAY, A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. FOR FRIDAY, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE SOME FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING SATURDAY. THERE IS A
CHC FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE ARE ANTICIPATING SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY DURING
MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH A SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING WE HAVE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909

THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

IT APPEARS THAT READING AND ATLANTIC CITY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF GETTING TO THEIR RECORD LOW SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

RECORD EVENT REPORTS WILL UPDATE AROUND 730 PM KACY AND KILG.
WE MAY NEED OTHERS AT THAT TIME.

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

FWIW...WATER EQUIVALENCE OF TOTAL SNOW DEPTH IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PA IS NOW WELL OVER 3 INCHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-
     071.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ013-
     014-016>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GAINES 601
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GAINES/GORSE/O`HARA 601
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON/O`HARA 601
CLIMATE...601




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 052137
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
437 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...AND
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER TO THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST...USHERING IN MARKEDLY COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
FRIDAY. GRADUALLY MODERATING...MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
P-TYPE TRANSITION CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTN. CONTINUED TO FOLLOW NAM12 AND HRRR, WHICH HAS
PERFORMED QUITE WELL WITH SFC TEMPS THUS FAR, AND NAM HAS BEEN
HELPFUL WITH TOP-DOWN PROCEDURES IN PINPOINTING SLEET/SNOW ZONES.
AREA OF BEST FGEN, NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH NEGATIVE SATURATED EPV
ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL VA INTO THE NORTHERN NECK THIS AFTN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A
STRONG, VERY NARROW SNOW BAND TO TRAVERSE NW ACROSS THE WARNING
AREA AND NORTHERN TIER OF THE ADVISORY AREA. AS OMEGA RAMPS UP,
THIS COULD WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG SNOWFALL RATES
UPWARDS OF 2" AN HOUR MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE RIC
METRO AREA TOWARDS SBY THROUGH 22-00Z...WHICH WILL PUSH THESE
AREAS TOWARDS FORECAST SNOW VALUES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. MEANWHILE, FARTHER SOUTH THE RIDGE HOLDING STRONG WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN A LONGER PERIOD OF `WARMER` MID-LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SLEET...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF RIC METRO AREA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VA
FOR THE MID TO LATE AFTN HOURS. AS A RESULT...SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION REMAINS LOWER ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TIER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN FAVOR OF MORE SLEET...WHILE SNOW TOTALS
HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY IN OUR WINTER STORM WARNING AREA.
FINALLY, ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, SNOW ACCUMULATION (AGAIN, PRIMARILY
FOR SLEET) HAS BEEN INCREASED WHERE MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER INTO
THE EVENING. ADDITIONALLY, WHILE SLEET REMAINS PREDOMINATE ISSUE,
A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN HAS BEEN INTRODUCED ALONG THE HIGHWAY 58
CORRIDOR INTO SE VA AND INTERIOR NE NC FOR THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

CRITICAL H85-7 THICKNESS VALUES (SUB 1540M) ARE NOT REALIZED
UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT OVER NRN HALF OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME THE STRONGEST UVM WILL BE EXITING THE
COAST. OVERALL, UTILIZING ROEBBER SLR FORECASTING TOOL ALONG WITH
LOCAL THICKNESS CHART, FORECAST SLR VALUES WILL BE QUITE LOW FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY (PERHAPS AS LOW AS 4:1-8:1). THIS MAKES SENSE
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED ONGOING PERIOD OF SLEET (WHICH WILL EAT
INTO SNOWFALL TOTALS). FURTHER, MID-LEVEL (H85-7) THICKNESSES
WILL BE `WARM` DURING THE STRONGEST FORCING THROUGH THE MID-
AFTERNOON HOURS, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. BASED ON ALL
OF THE ABOVE, HAVE CONTINUED WITH A STRIPE OF 4-5" OF SNOW/SLEET
ALONG/NORTH OF A LINE FROM CUMBERLAND, VA TO TAPPAHANNOCK AND
SALISBURY, MD (INCLUDIGN 95 CORRIDOR ABOVE ASHLAND, VA). THIS IS
BORDERED BY A BAND OF 2-3" FOR OTHER PORTIONS OF THE NW
PIEDMONT...NRN NECK...NORTHERN RIC SUBURBS AND REMAINDER OF THE
LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE. CURRENTLY 1-2" OF SLEET/SNOW IS FORECAST
FROM THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE RIC METRO /TRI-CITIES DOWN
THROUGH HAMPTON ROADS...WITH AROUND 1" OF SLEET/SNOW ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 58 CORRIDOR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VA INTO THE PIEDMONT.

WINTRY PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS EVENING...AS TOP DOWN DRYING
ENSUES W/DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE NW TO SE DURING THE LATE
EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ADVISORIES WILL RUN THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...WITH THE SE PORTION LINGERING THROUGH 3 AM WHERE DRIER
AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE. AN SPS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AFTER
ADVISORIES DROP TO ADDRESS SLIPPERY ROADS/BLACK ICE OVERNIGHT.
EARLY MORNING LOWS 10 TO 15 NORTH...MID TEENS TO AROUND 20
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ZONES. WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR 0 ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE/FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

COLD/DRY AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE LOCAL AREA FRI AS 1030+MB ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. CAA WANES...BUT
NOT BEFORE H85 TEMPS LEVEL OFF BTWN -4 AND -8C. GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE HIGHS IN THE 25-30 DEG RANGE...BUT THICKNESSES YIELD
TEMPS IN THE MID 30S. HAVE KEPT WITH PERSISTENCE OF GOING ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. UPPER 20S
INTERIOR MD ERN SHORE. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN
THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR W TO
PARTLY CLOUDY E. NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION FRI
NIGHT...RESULTING IN LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED COASTAL BOUNDARY
FRI NIGHT...BUT REMAINING OFFSHORE THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. COLD FRI NIGHT WITH WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS.

ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE
SE STATES. SWLY RETURN FLOW COMMENCES SAT...RESULTING IN MODERATING
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND TEMPS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO REBOUND NICELY
SAT...WARMING INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S
COASTAL AREAS. SKIES AVG MOSTLY CLEAR. NOT AS COLD SAT NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. WARMER SUN WITH HIGHS NEAR
NORMAL...MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S COASTAL AREAS. COLD SAT
MORNING WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/CMC/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND THESE MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR. MORE OF A SPLIT/ZONAL
PATTERN WILL AFFECT THE CNTRL/ERN U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD
RESULTING IN NEAR OR SLGTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACRS THE FCST AREA.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACRS THE REGION SUN NGT INTO MON MORNG
POSSIBLY TRIGGERING ISLTD RAIN SHOWERS. MON NGT INTO TUE NGT...SFC
HI PRES WILL BE SLIDING ACRS EXTRM NRN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...WHILE WEAK LO PRES WILL BE MOVING FM THE GULF OF MEXICO
ENE AND OFF THE SE CST. AS A RESULT...SOME DEEPER LO LVL MOISTURE
WILL LIFT NWRD INTO AT LEAST SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...SO HAVE
SLGT (15-20%) TO SML CHC (30%) POPS FOR NOW. MAINLY DRY WX...EXCEPT
FOR MAYBE SLGT CHC OVR NE NC COUNTIES...FOR WED AFTN THRU THU AS
HI PRES BLDS FARTHER S. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 30S TO
LWR 40S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 40S TO UPR 50S MON
AND TUE...AND IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MIXTURE OF SLEET/SNOW NW OF KRIC WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WINTERY MIX WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW FM NW TO NE DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE DAY. IFR/LIFR OVER ALL TAF SITES WITH THE PCPN THROUGH
TONIGHT. TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED
AT RIC AND SBY WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES OR LESS AT THE SE TAF SITES.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FM THE N MUCH OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...PCPN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND
VFR CONDS RETURN. IMPROVING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
LATE THIS AFTN...ONE LO PRES AREA WAS OFF THE VA/NC CST WHILE A
SECOND LO PRES SYSTEM WAS ALONG THE SC CST. THESE LOWS WILL MOVE
NE ALNG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OUT TO SEA TNGT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNG. SCA`S AND GALE WARNGS REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO FRI MORNG OR
THRU FRI AFTN...DUE TO STRONG N WINDS. WAVES OVER THE CHES BAY
WILL BLD TO 3-5 FT...WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS BLDNG TO 6-11 FT.
CALMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI NGT THRU SUN...AS HI PRES BLDS OVR
THE AREA THEN SLIDES OFFSHR.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ012>017-
     030>032-102.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     VAZ060>062-065>073-077>094-099-100.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ048-049-
     063-064-074>076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ095>098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ632>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630-631-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...TMG






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 052137
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
437 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...AND
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER TO THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST...USHERING IN MARKEDLY COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
FRIDAY. GRADUALLY MODERATING...MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
P-TYPE TRANSITION CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTN. CONTINUED TO FOLLOW NAM12 AND HRRR, WHICH HAS
PERFORMED QUITE WELL WITH SFC TEMPS THUS FAR, AND NAM HAS BEEN
HELPFUL WITH TOP-DOWN PROCEDURES IN PINPOINTING SLEET/SNOW ZONES.
AREA OF BEST FGEN, NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH NEGATIVE SATURATED EPV
ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL VA INTO THE NORTHERN NECK THIS AFTN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A
STRONG, VERY NARROW SNOW BAND TO TRAVERSE NW ACROSS THE WARNING
AREA AND NORTHERN TIER OF THE ADVISORY AREA. AS OMEGA RAMPS UP,
THIS COULD WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG SNOWFALL RATES
UPWARDS OF 2" AN HOUR MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE RIC
METRO AREA TOWARDS SBY THROUGH 22-00Z...WHICH WILL PUSH THESE
AREAS TOWARDS FORECAST SNOW VALUES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. MEANWHILE, FARTHER SOUTH THE RIDGE HOLDING STRONG WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN A LONGER PERIOD OF `WARMER` MID-LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SLEET...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF RIC METRO AREA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VA
FOR THE MID TO LATE AFTN HOURS. AS A RESULT...SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION REMAINS LOWER ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TIER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN FAVOR OF MORE SLEET...WHILE SNOW TOTALS
HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY IN OUR WINTER STORM WARNING AREA.
FINALLY, ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, SNOW ACCUMULATION (AGAIN, PRIMARILY
FOR SLEET) HAS BEEN INCREASED WHERE MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER INTO
THE EVENING. ADDITIONALLY, WHILE SLEET REMAINS PREDOMINATE ISSUE,
A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN HAS BEEN INTRODUCED ALONG THE HIGHWAY 58
CORRIDOR INTO SE VA AND INTERIOR NE NC FOR THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

CRITICAL H85-7 THICKNESS VALUES (SUB 1540M) ARE NOT REALIZED
UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT OVER NRN HALF OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME THE STRONGEST UVM WILL BE EXITING THE
COAST. OVERALL, UTILIZING ROEBBER SLR FORECASTING TOOL ALONG WITH
LOCAL THICKNESS CHART, FORECAST SLR VALUES WILL BE QUITE LOW FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY (PERHAPS AS LOW AS 4:1-8:1). THIS MAKES SENSE
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED ONGOING PERIOD OF SLEET (WHICH WILL EAT
INTO SNOWFALL TOTALS). FURTHER, MID-LEVEL (H85-7) THICKNESSES
WILL BE `WARM` DURING THE STRONGEST FORCING THROUGH THE MID-
AFTERNOON HOURS, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. BASED ON ALL
OF THE ABOVE, HAVE CONTINUED WITH A STRIPE OF 4-5" OF SNOW/SLEET
ALONG/NORTH OF A LINE FROM CUMBERLAND, VA TO TAPPAHANNOCK AND
SALISBURY, MD (INCLUDIGN 95 CORRIDOR ABOVE ASHLAND, VA). THIS IS
BORDERED BY A BAND OF 2-3" FOR OTHER PORTIONS OF THE NW
PIEDMONT...NRN NECK...NORTHERN RIC SUBURBS AND REMAINDER OF THE
LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE. CURRENTLY 1-2" OF SLEET/SNOW IS FORECAST
FROM THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE RIC METRO /TRI-CITIES DOWN
THROUGH HAMPTON ROADS...WITH AROUND 1" OF SLEET/SNOW ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 58 CORRIDOR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VA INTO THE PIEDMONT.

WINTRY PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS EVENING...AS TOP DOWN DRYING
ENSUES W/DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE NW TO SE DURING THE LATE
EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ADVISORIES WILL RUN THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...WITH THE SE PORTION LINGERING THROUGH 3 AM WHERE DRIER
AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE. AN SPS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AFTER
ADVISORIES DROP TO ADDRESS SLIPPERY ROADS/BLACK ICE OVERNIGHT.
EARLY MORNING LOWS 10 TO 15 NORTH...MID TEENS TO AROUND 20
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ZONES. WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR 0 ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE/FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

COLD/DRY AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE LOCAL AREA FRI AS 1030+MB ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. CAA WANES...BUT
NOT BEFORE H85 TEMPS LEVEL OFF BTWN -4 AND -8C. GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE HIGHS IN THE 25-30 DEG RANGE...BUT THICKNESSES YIELD
TEMPS IN THE MID 30S. HAVE KEPT WITH PERSISTENCE OF GOING ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. UPPER 20S
INTERIOR MD ERN SHORE. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN
THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR W TO
PARTLY CLOUDY E. NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION FRI
NIGHT...RESULTING IN LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED COASTAL BOUNDARY
FRI NIGHT...BUT REMAINING OFFSHORE THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. COLD FRI NIGHT WITH WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS.

ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE
SE STATES. SWLY RETURN FLOW COMMENCES SAT...RESULTING IN MODERATING
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND TEMPS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO REBOUND NICELY
SAT...WARMING INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S
COASTAL AREAS. SKIES AVG MOSTLY CLEAR. NOT AS COLD SAT NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. WARMER SUN WITH HIGHS NEAR
NORMAL...MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S COASTAL AREAS. COLD SAT
MORNING WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/CMC/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND THESE MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR. MORE OF A SPLIT/ZONAL
PATTERN WILL AFFECT THE CNTRL/ERN U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD
RESULTING IN NEAR OR SLGTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACRS THE FCST AREA.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACRS THE REGION SUN NGT INTO MON MORNG
POSSIBLY TRIGGERING ISLTD RAIN SHOWERS. MON NGT INTO TUE NGT...SFC
HI PRES WILL BE SLIDING ACRS EXTRM NRN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...WHILE WEAK LO PRES WILL BE MOVING FM THE GULF OF MEXICO
ENE AND OFF THE SE CST. AS A RESULT...SOME DEEPER LO LVL MOISTURE
WILL LIFT NWRD INTO AT LEAST SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...SO HAVE
SLGT (15-20%) TO SML CHC (30%) POPS FOR NOW. MAINLY DRY WX...EXCEPT
FOR MAYBE SLGT CHC OVR NE NC COUNTIES...FOR WED AFTN THRU THU AS
HI PRES BLDS FARTHER S. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 30S TO
LWR 40S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 40S TO UPR 50S MON
AND TUE...AND IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MIXTURE OF SLEET/SNOW NW OF KRIC WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WINTERY MIX WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW FM NW TO NE DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE DAY. IFR/LIFR OVER ALL TAF SITES WITH THE PCPN THROUGH
TONIGHT. TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED
AT RIC AND SBY WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES OR LESS AT THE SE TAF SITES.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FM THE N MUCH OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...PCPN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND
VFR CONDS RETURN. IMPROVING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
LATE THIS AFTN...ONE LO PRES AREA WAS OFF THE VA/NC CST WHILE A
SECOND LO PRES SYSTEM WAS ALONG THE SC CST. THESE LOWS WILL MOVE
NE ALNG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OUT TO SEA TNGT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNG. SCA`S AND GALE WARNGS REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO FRI MORNG OR
THRU FRI AFTN...DUE TO STRONG N WINDS. WAVES OVER THE CHES BAY
WILL BLD TO 3-5 FT...WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS BLDNG TO 6-11 FT.
CALMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI NGT THRU SUN...AS HI PRES BLDS OVR
THE AREA THEN SLIDES OFFSHR.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ012>017-
     030>032-102.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     VAZ060>062-065>073-077>094-099-100.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ048-049-
     063-064-074>076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ095>098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ632>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630-631-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...TMG







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 052137
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
437 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...AND
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER TO THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST...USHERING IN MARKEDLY COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
FRIDAY. GRADUALLY MODERATING...MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
P-TYPE TRANSITION CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTN. CONTINUED TO FOLLOW NAM12 AND HRRR, WHICH HAS
PERFORMED QUITE WELL WITH SFC TEMPS THUS FAR, AND NAM HAS BEEN
HELPFUL WITH TOP-DOWN PROCEDURES IN PINPOINTING SLEET/SNOW ZONES.
AREA OF BEST FGEN, NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH NEGATIVE SATURATED EPV
ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL VA INTO THE NORTHERN NECK THIS AFTN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A
STRONG, VERY NARROW SNOW BAND TO TRAVERSE NW ACROSS THE WARNING
AREA AND NORTHERN TIER OF THE ADVISORY AREA. AS OMEGA RAMPS UP,
THIS COULD WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG SNOWFALL RATES
UPWARDS OF 2" AN HOUR MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE RIC
METRO AREA TOWARDS SBY THROUGH 22-00Z...WHICH WILL PUSH THESE
AREAS TOWARDS FORECAST SNOW VALUES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. MEANWHILE, FARTHER SOUTH THE RIDGE HOLDING STRONG WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN A LONGER PERIOD OF `WARMER` MID-LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SLEET...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF RIC METRO AREA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VA
FOR THE MID TO LATE AFTN HOURS. AS A RESULT...SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION REMAINS LOWER ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TIER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN FAVOR OF MORE SLEET...WHILE SNOW TOTALS
HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY IN OUR WINTER STORM WARNING AREA.
FINALLY, ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, SNOW ACCUMULATION (AGAIN, PRIMARILY
FOR SLEET) HAS BEEN INCREASED WHERE MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER INTO
THE EVENING. ADDITIONALLY, WHILE SLEET REMAINS PREDOMINATE ISSUE,
A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN HAS BEEN INTRODUCED ALONG THE HIGHWAY 58
CORRIDOR INTO SE VA AND INTERIOR NE NC FOR THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

CRITICAL H85-7 THICKNESS VALUES (SUB 1540M) ARE NOT REALIZED
UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT OVER NRN HALF OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME THE STRONGEST UVM WILL BE EXITING THE
COAST. OVERALL, UTILIZING ROEBBER SLR FORECASTING TOOL ALONG WITH
LOCAL THICKNESS CHART, FORECAST SLR VALUES WILL BE QUITE LOW FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY (PERHAPS AS LOW AS 4:1-8:1). THIS MAKES SENSE
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED ONGOING PERIOD OF SLEET (WHICH WILL EAT
INTO SNOWFALL TOTALS). FURTHER, MID-LEVEL (H85-7) THICKNESSES
WILL BE `WARM` DURING THE STRONGEST FORCING THROUGH THE MID-
AFTERNOON HOURS, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. BASED ON ALL
OF THE ABOVE, HAVE CONTINUED WITH A STRIPE OF 4-5" OF SNOW/SLEET
ALONG/NORTH OF A LINE FROM CUMBERLAND, VA TO TAPPAHANNOCK AND
SALISBURY, MD (INCLUDIGN 95 CORRIDOR ABOVE ASHLAND, VA). THIS IS
BORDERED BY A BAND OF 2-3" FOR OTHER PORTIONS OF THE NW
PIEDMONT...NRN NECK...NORTHERN RIC SUBURBS AND REMAINDER OF THE
LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE. CURRENTLY 1-2" OF SLEET/SNOW IS FORECAST
FROM THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE RIC METRO /TRI-CITIES DOWN
THROUGH HAMPTON ROADS...WITH AROUND 1" OF SLEET/SNOW ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 58 CORRIDOR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VA INTO THE PIEDMONT.

WINTRY PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS EVENING...AS TOP DOWN DRYING
ENSUES W/DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE NW TO SE DURING THE LATE
EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ADVISORIES WILL RUN THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...WITH THE SE PORTION LINGERING THROUGH 3 AM WHERE DRIER
AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE. AN SPS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AFTER
ADVISORIES DROP TO ADDRESS SLIPPERY ROADS/BLACK ICE OVERNIGHT.
EARLY MORNING LOWS 10 TO 15 NORTH...MID TEENS TO AROUND 20
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ZONES. WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR 0 ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE/FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

COLD/DRY AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE LOCAL AREA FRI AS 1030+MB ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. CAA WANES...BUT
NOT BEFORE H85 TEMPS LEVEL OFF BTWN -4 AND -8C. GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE HIGHS IN THE 25-30 DEG RANGE...BUT THICKNESSES YIELD
TEMPS IN THE MID 30S. HAVE KEPT WITH PERSISTENCE OF GOING ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. UPPER 20S
INTERIOR MD ERN SHORE. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN
THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR W TO
PARTLY CLOUDY E. NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION FRI
NIGHT...RESULTING IN LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED COASTAL BOUNDARY
FRI NIGHT...BUT REMAINING OFFSHORE THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. COLD FRI NIGHT WITH WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS.

ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE
SE STATES. SWLY RETURN FLOW COMMENCES SAT...RESULTING IN MODERATING
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND TEMPS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO REBOUND NICELY
SAT...WARMING INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S
COASTAL AREAS. SKIES AVG MOSTLY CLEAR. NOT AS COLD SAT NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. WARMER SUN WITH HIGHS NEAR
NORMAL...MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S COASTAL AREAS. COLD SAT
MORNING WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/CMC/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND THESE MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR. MORE OF A SPLIT/ZONAL
PATTERN WILL AFFECT THE CNTRL/ERN U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD
RESULTING IN NEAR OR SLGTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACRS THE FCST AREA.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACRS THE REGION SUN NGT INTO MON MORNG
POSSIBLY TRIGGERING ISLTD RAIN SHOWERS. MON NGT INTO TUE NGT...SFC
HI PRES WILL BE SLIDING ACRS EXTRM NRN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...WHILE WEAK LO PRES WILL BE MOVING FM THE GULF OF MEXICO
ENE AND OFF THE SE CST. AS A RESULT...SOME DEEPER LO LVL MOISTURE
WILL LIFT NWRD INTO AT LEAST SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...SO HAVE
SLGT (15-20%) TO SML CHC (30%) POPS FOR NOW. MAINLY DRY WX...EXCEPT
FOR MAYBE SLGT CHC OVR NE NC COUNTIES...FOR WED AFTN THRU THU AS
HI PRES BLDS FARTHER S. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 30S TO
LWR 40S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 40S TO UPR 50S MON
AND TUE...AND IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MIXTURE OF SLEET/SNOW NW OF KRIC WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WINTERY MIX WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW FM NW TO NE DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE DAY. IFR/LIFR OVER ALL TAF SITES WITH THE PCPN THROUGH
TONIGHT. TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED
AT RIC AND SBY WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES OR LESS AT THE SE TAF SITES.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FM THE N MUCH OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...PCPN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND
VFR CONDS RETURN. IMPROVING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
LATE THIS AFTN...ONE LO PRES AREA WAS OFF THE VA/NC CST WHILE A
SECOND LO PRES SYSTEM WAS ALONG THE SC CST. THESE LOWS WILL MOVE
NE ALNG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OUT TO SEA TNGT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNG. SCA`S AND GALE WARNGS REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO FRI MORNG OR
THRU FRI AFTN...DUE TO STRONG N WINDS. WAVES OVER THE CHES BAY
WILL BLD TO 3-5 FT...WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS BLDNG TO 6-11 FT.
CALMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI NGT THRU SUN...AS HI PRES BLDS OVR
THE AREA THEN SLIDES OFFSHR.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ012>017-
     030>032-102.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     VAZ060>062-065>073-077>094-099-100.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ048-049-
     063-064-074>076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ095>098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ632>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630-631-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...TMG







000
FXUS61 KPHI 052131
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
431 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING, THEN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE
TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO
OUR NORTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FOR THE POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NJ, SNOW HAS ENDED AND THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF
A FEW INCHES OCCURRED WITH A SHARP CUTOFF AS YOU GO NORTH IN THIS
REGION.

FOR THE LEHIGH VALLEY, SNOW WILL BE ENDING BY SUNSET AND A WINTER
STORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 7PM. NUMEROUS REPORTS OF AROUND SIX
INCHES HAVE COME IN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS AND THESE HAVE BEEN
REFLECTED IN THE STORM TOTAL WEB MAP.

FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND THE PHILADELPHIA METRO REGION, A COUPLE
MORE HOURS OF MODERATE, BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE
ENDING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS 6-8, ISOLATED
HIGHER.

IN THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY, THE CHANGEOVER WAS SLOW
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL CUT INTO THE ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND
SLEET. FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND 700MB FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
ARE TAKING PLACE RESULTING IN HEAVIER BANDING, SO NOT A DRASTIC
REDUCTION IN TOTALS. SUSSEX AND CAPE MAY COUNTIES  MAY HAVE THE
HARDEST TIME REACHING WARNING CRITERIA (4-6 OR SO) WITH AREAS
FURTHER NORTH ENDING UP WITH 6 INCHES OR SO.

FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW MAINLY USED THE RAP AND WPC QPF AS A GUIDELINE
AND TOOK INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT OBS TO MAKE THE SNOW TOTAL FORECASTS
REFERENCED ABOVE.

TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE ONCE SKIES CLEAR. THIS SHOULD TAKE PLACE
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER THE SNOW ENDS GIVEN A STEEP DROP IN DEW POINTS
AND CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION. RECORD LOWS ARE POSSIBLE,
PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE
COMPOSED OF MET/MAV AND THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES FROM
THE GFS WHICH HAS DONE WELL AT NIGHT WITH SNOW COVER.

WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION,
WITH THE POCONOS SEEING WIND CHILLS WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY
THRESHOLD FOR A FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE LIMITED WINDOW AND MARGINAL
VALUES IN TERMS OF AND ADVISORY, WILL JUST CONTINUE MENTION IN THE
HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY BUT STILL
COLD. DID GO A TOUCH WARMER THAN MAV/MET GIVEN THE COOL DAYTIME BIAS
WITH SNOW COVER. OTHER ELEMENTS STRAIGHT MAV/MET. CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 MPH OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW, THIS FEATURE SHOULD AMPLIFY A LITTLE
FOR A TIME OR TWO. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS ENERGY EJECTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH A RIDGE POTENTIALLY BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.
THIS RESULTS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK.
WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT
WITH THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. WE THEN MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER A DRY AIRMASS RESULTS IN NO PRECIPITATION.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA HOWEVER ITS
CENTER SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL RETURN FLOW BEING ESTABLISHED AND AFTER A VERY COLD START
SATURDAY, SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES SUNDAY, THEN WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY. THIS
WILL DRIVE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING MONDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE AS MUCH OF THE LIFT
OCCURS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THERE COULD BE A SNOW SHOWER THOUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, THE AIRMASS
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MODIFY AS THE FLOW COMES MORE FROM THE
WEST AND NOT THE NORTH.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
PRESSURE APPEARS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH ONCE AGAIN, WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING MOSTLY TO OUR NORTHWEST. WHILE THE FLOW LOOKS FAIRLY
WEAK, ENOUGH WAA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR FURTHER
MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH MANY AREAS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ARRIVING LATE
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE
ALOFT IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA, WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM NEAR MAINE TO THE
GREAT LAKES THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE MUCH
MILDER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 50S. THE OCEAN AND
DELAWARE BAY ARE COLD AND IF THERE IS LIGHT ENOUGH FLOW, THEN A
COOLING AFFECT CAN BE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT AT ALL TAF SITES INTO
THE EVENING WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW. KRDG AND KABE WILL BE FIRST TO
IMPROVE TO VFR BY 00Z 3/6. OTHER TAF SITES WILL FOLLOW WITH AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WITH KACY LAST AROUND 03Z. NORTHERLY WINDS
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL INTO THE EVENING,
POTENTIALLY LASTING LONGER THAN CURRENT TAFS INDICATE. OVERNIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN SLIGHTLY WITH CONTINUED VFR
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING BY
LATER SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER ANY
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IT
MOVES THROUGH DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE
5 FT. IN ADDITION, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST. THEREFORE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON THE BAY, A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. FOR FRIDAY, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE SOME FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING SATURDAY. THERE IS A
CHC FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE ARE ANTICIPATING SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY DURING
MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH A SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING WE HAVE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909

THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

IT APPEARS THAT READING AND ATLANTIC CITY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF GETTING TO THEIR RECORD LOW SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

RECORD EVENT REPORTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY FOR KACY AND KILG AND
THOSE WILL BE UPDATED AT 7 PM TONIGHT. WE MAY NEED OTHERS LATER
THIS EVENING.

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

FWIW...WATER EQUIVALENCE OF TOTAL SNOW DEPTH IN PORTIONS OF
EASTERN PA IS NOW WELL OVER 3 INCHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ007>010-012>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GAINES/GORSE/O`HARA
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON/O`HARA
CLIMATE...DRAG 430P



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 052049
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
349 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...AND
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER TO THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST...USHERING IN MARKEDLY COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
FRIDAY. GRADUALLY MODERATING...MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
P-TYPE TRANSITION CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTN. CONTINUED TO FOLLOW NAM12 AND HRRR, WHICH HAS
PERFORMED QUITE WELL WITH SFC TEMPS THUS FAR, AND NAM HAS BEEN
HELPFUL WITH TOP-DOWN PROCEDURES IN PINPOINTING SLEET/SNOW ZONES.
AREA OF BEST FGEN, NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH NEGATIVE SATURATED EPV
ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL VA INTO THE NORTHERN NECK THIS AFTN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A
STRONG, VERY NARROW SNOW BAND TO TRAVERSE NW ACROSS THE WARNING
AREA AND NORTHERN TIER OF THE ADVISORY AREA. AS OMEGA RAMPS UP,
THIS COULD WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG SNOWFALL RATES
UPWARDS OF 2" AN HOUR MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE RIC
METRO AREA TOWARDS SBY THROUGH 22-00Z...WHICH WILL PUSH THESE
AREAS TOWARDS FORECAST SNOW VALUES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. MEANWHILE, FARTHER SOUTH THE RIDGE HOLDING STRONG WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN A LONGER PERIOD OF `WARMER` MID-LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SLEET...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF RIC METRO AREA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VA
FOR THE MID TO LATE AFTN HOURS. AS A RESULT...SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION REMAINS LOWER ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TIER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN FAVOR OF MORE SLEET...WHILE SNOW TOTALS
HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY IN OUR WINTER STORM WARNING AREA.
FINALLY, ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, SNOW ACCUMULATION (AGAIN, PRIMARILY
FOR SLEET) HAS BEEN INCREASED WHERE MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER INTO
THE EVENING. ADDITIONALLY, WHILE SLEET REMAINS PREDOMINATE ISSUE,
A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN HAS BEEN INTRODUCED ALONG THE HIGHWAY 58
CORRIDOR INTO SE VA AND INTERIOR NE NC FOR THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

CRITICAL H85-7 THICKNESS VALUES (SUB 1540M) ARE NOT REALIZED
UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT OVER NRN HALF OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME THE STRONGEST UVM WILL BE EXITING THE
COAST. OVERALL, UTILIZING ROEBBER SLR FORECASTING TOOL ALONG WITH
LOCAL THICKNESS CHART, FORECAST SLR VALUES WILL BE QUITE LOW FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY (PERHAPS AS LOW AS 4:1-8:1). THIS MAKES SENSE
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED ONGOING PERIOD OF SLEET (WHICH WILL EAT
INTO SNOWFALL TOTALS). FURTHER, MID-LEVEL (H85-7) THICKNESSES
WILL BE `WARM` DURING THE STRONGEST FORCING THROUGH THE MID-
AFTERNOON HOURS, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. BASED ON ALL
OF THE ABOVE, HAVE CONTINUED WITH A STRIPE OF 4-5" OF SNOW/SLEET
ALONG/NORTH OF A LINE FROM CUMBERLAND, VA TO TAPPAHANNOCK AND
SALISBURY, MD (INCLUDIGN 95 CORRIDOR ABOVE ASHLAND, VA). THIS IS
BORDERED BY A BAND OF 2-3" FOR OTHER PORTIONS OF THE NW
PIEDMONT...NRN NECK...NORTHERN RIC SUBURBS AND REMAINDER OF THE
LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE. CURRENTLY 1-2" OF SLEET/SNOW IS FORECAST
FROM THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE RIC METRO /TRI-CITIES DOWN
THROUGH HAMPTON ROADS...WITH AROUND 1" OF SLEET/SNOW ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 58 CORRIDOR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VA INTO THE PIEDMONT.

WINTRY PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS EVENING...AS TOP DOWN DRYING
ENSUES W/DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE NW TO SE DURING THE LATE
EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ADVISORIES WILL RUN THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...WITH THE SE PORTION LINGERING THROUGH 3 AM WHERE DRIER
AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE. AN SPS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AFTER
ADVISORIES DROP TO ADDRESS SLIPPERY ROADS/BLACK ICE OVERNIGHT.
EARLY MORNING LOWS 10 TO 15 NORTH...MID TEENS TO AROUND 20
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ZONES. WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR 0 ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE/FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

COLD/DRY AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE LOCAL AREA FRI AS 1030+MB ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. CAA WANES...BUT
NOT BEFORE H85 TEMPS LEVEL OFF BTWN -4 AND -8C. GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE HIGHS IN THE 25-30 DEG RANGE...BUT THICKNESSES YIELD
TEMPS IN THE MID 30S. HAVE KEPT WITH PERSISTENCE OF GOING ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. UPPER 20S
INTERIOR MD ERN SHORE. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN
THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR W TO
PARTLY CLOUDY E. NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION FRI
NIGHT...RESULTING IN LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED COASTAL BOUNDARY
FRI NIGHT...BUT REMAINING OFFSHORE THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. COLD FRI NIGHT WITH WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS.

ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE
SE STATES. SWLY RETURN FLOW COMMENCES SAT...RESULTING IN MODERATING
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND TEMPS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO REBOUND NICELY
SAT...WARMING INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S
COASTAL AREAS. SKIES AVG MOSTLY CLEAR. NOT AS COLD SAT NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. WARMER SUN WITH HIGHS NEAR
NORMAL...MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S COASTAL AREAS. COLD SAT
MORNING WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOING CLOSE TO THE 12Z GFS/CMC IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WILL MAINTAIN
DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU AT LEAST MON NGT AT THIS TIME..AS HI PRES
WILL BE OVR THE AREA. THERE IS THEN A HINT OF LO PRES MOVNG NE OUT
OF THE GULF AND ACRS THE REGION TUE THRU WED. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE
SLGT CHC OF RAIN DURING THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE RDGS THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR
20S TO UPR 30S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 40S TO UPR
50S...MAYBE INTO THE 60S ON WED.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MIXTURE OF SLEET/SNOW NW OF KRIC WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WINTERY MIX WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW FM NW TO NE DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE DAY. IFR/LIFR OVER ALL TAF SITES WITH THE PCPN THROUGH
TONIGHT. TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED
AT RIC AND SBY WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES OR LESS AT THE SE TAF SITES.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FM THE N MUCH OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...PCPN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND
VFR CONDS RETURN. IMPROVING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRNT IS LOCATED NR THE NC/VA BORDER ERLY THIS MORNG...AND
WILL SLOWLY SLIDE S THRU MIDDAY. N WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER ALL
WTRS...INCREASING TO SCA THRESHOLDS BY THE MIDDAY/AFTN HRS. ALSO
HOISTED A GALE WARNG FOR THE SRN CSTL WTRS WHERE FREQUENT GUSTS UP
TO 35 KT ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENG AND OVRNGT. WAVES OVER THE CHES BAY
WILL BLD TO 3-5 FT...WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS BLDNG TO 6-10 FT. ALL
MARINE HEADLINES END DURING THE DAY FRI AS WINDS/WAVES/SEAS
DECREASE AS HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. BENIGN MARINE CONDS CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE HI REMAINING IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ012>017-
     030>032-102.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     VAZ060>062-065>073-077>094-099-100.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ048-049-
     063-064-074>076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ095>098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ632>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630-631-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...SAM/TMG
AVIATION...MAS/DAP
MARINE...MAS









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 052049
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
349 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...AND
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER TO THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST...USHERING IN MARKEDLY COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
FRIDAY. GRADUALLY MODERATING...MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
P-TYPE TRANSITION CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTN. CONTINUED TO FOLLOW NAM12 AND HRRR, WHICH HAS
PERFORMED QUITE WELL WITH SFC TEMPS THUS FAR, AND NAM HAS BEEN
HELPFUL WITH TOP-DOWN PROCEDURES IN PINPOINTING SLEET/SNOW ZONES.
AREA OF BEST FGEN, NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH NEGATIVE SATURATED EPV
ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL VA INTO THE NORTHERN NECK THIS AFTN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A
STRONG, VERY NARROW SNOW BAND TO TRAVERSE NW ACROSS THE WARNING
AREA AND NORTHERN TIER OF THE ADVISORY AREA. AS OMEGA RAMPS UP,
THIS COULD WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG SNOWFALL RATES
UPWARDS OF 2" AN HOUR MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE RIC
METRO AREA TOWARDS SBY THROUGH 22-00Z...WHICH WILL PUSH THESE
AREAS TOWARDS FORECAST SNOW VALUES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. MEANWHILE, FARTHER SOUTH THE RIDGE HOLDING STRONG WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN A LONGER PERIOD OF `WARMER` MID-LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SLEET...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF RIC METRO AREA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VA
FOR THE MID TO LATE AFTN HOURS. AS A RESULT...SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION REMAINS LOWER ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TIER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN FAVOR OF MORE SLEET...WHILE SNOW TOTALS
HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY IN OUR WINTER STORM WARNING AREA.
FINALLY, ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, SNOW ACCUMULATION (AGAIN, PRIMARILY
FOR SLEET) HAS BEEN INCREASED WHERE MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER INTO
THE EVENING. ADDITIONALLY, WHILE SLEET REMAINS PREDOMINATE ISSUE,
A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN HAS BEEN INTRODUCED ALONG THE HIGHWAY 58
CORRIDOR INTO SE VA AND INTERIOR NE NC FOR THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

CRITICAL H85-7 THICKNESS VALUES (SUB 1540M) ARE NOT REALIZED
UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT OVER NRN HALF OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME THE STRONGEST UVM WILL BE EXITING THE
COAST. OVERALL, UTILIZING ROEBBER SLR FORECASTING TOOL ALONG WITH
LOCAL THICKNESS CHART, FORECAST SLR VALUES WILL BE QUITE LOW FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY (PERHAPS AS LOW AS 4:1-8:1). THIS MAKES SENSE
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED ONGOING PERIOD OF SLEET (WHICH WILL EAT
INTO SNOWFALL TOTALS). FURTHER, MID-LEVEL (H85-7) THICKNESSES
WILL BE `WARM` DURING THE STRONGEST FORCING THROUGH THE MID-
AFTERNOON HOURS, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. BASED ON ALL
OF THE ABOVE, HAVE CONTINUED WITH A STRIPE OF 4-5" OF SNOW/SLEET
ALONG/NORTH OF A LINE FROM CUMBERLAND, VA TO TAPPAHANNOCK AND
SALISBURY, MD (INCLUDIGN 95 CORRIDOR ABOVE ASHLAND, VA). THIS IS
BORDERED BY A BAND OF 2-3" FOR OTHER PORTIONS OF THE NW
PIEDMONT...NRN NECK...NORTHERN RIC SUBURBS AND REMAINDER OF THE
LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE. CURRENTLY 1-2" OF SLEET/SNOW IS FORECAST
FROM THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE RIC METRO /TRI-CITIES DOWN
THROUGH HAMPTON ROADS...WITH AROUND 1" OF SLEET/SNOW ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 58 CORRIDOR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VA INTO THE PIEDMONT.

WINTRY PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS EVENING...AS TOP DOWN DRYING
ENSUES W/DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE NW TO SE DURING THE LATE
EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ADVISORIES WILL RUN THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...WITH THE SE PORTION LINGERING THROUGH 3 AM WHERE DRIER
AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE. AN SPS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AFTER
ADVISORIES DROP TO ADDRESS SLIPPERY ROADS/BLACK ICE OVERNIGHT.
EARLY MORNING LOWS 10 TO 15 NORTH...MID TEENS TO AROUND 20
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ZONES. WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR 0 ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE/FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

COLD/DRY AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE LOCAL AREA FRI AS 1030+MB ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. CAA WANES...BUT
NOT BEFORE H85 TEMPS LEVEL OFF BTWN -4 AND -8C. GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE HIGHS IN THE 25-30 DEG RANGE...BUT THICKNESSES YIELD
TEMPS IN THE MID 30S. HAVE KEPT WITH PERSISTENCE OF GOING ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. UPPER 20S
INTERIOR MD ERN SHORE. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN
THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR W TO
PARTLY CLOUDY E. NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION FRI
NIGHT...RESULTING IN LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED COASTAL BOUNDARY
FRI NIGHT...BUT REMAINING OFFSHORE THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. COLD FRI NIGHT WITH WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS.

ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE
SE STATES. SWLY RETURN FLOW COMMENCES SAT...RESULTING IN MODERATING
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND TEMPS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO REBOUND NICELY
SAT...WARMING INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S
COASTAL AREAS. SKIES AVG MOSTLY CLEAR. NOT AS COLD SAT NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. WARMER SUN WITH HIGHS NEAR
NORMAL...MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S COASTAL AREAS. COLD SAT
MORNING WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOING CLOSE TO THE 12Z GFS/CMC IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WILL MAINTAIN
DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU AT LEAST MON NGT AT THIS TIME..AS HI PRES
WILL BE OVR THE AREA. THERE IS THEN A HINT OF LO PRES MOVNG NE OUT
OF THE GULF AND ACRS THE REGION TUE THRU WED. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE
SLGT CHC OF RAIN DURING THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE RDGS THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR
20S TO UPR 30S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 40S TO UPR
50S...MAYBE INTO THE 60S ON WED.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MIXTURE OF SLEET/SNOW NW OF KRIC WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WINTERY MIX WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW FM NW TO NE DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE DAY. IFR/LIFR OVER ALL TAF SITES WITH THE PCPN THROUGH
TONIGHT. TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED
AT RIC AND SBY WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES OR LESS AT THE SE TAF SITES.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FM THE N MUCH OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...PCPN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND
VFR CONDS RETURN. IMPROVING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRNT IS LOCATED NR THE NC/VA BORDER ERLY THIS MORNG...AND
WILL SLOWLY SLIDE S THRU MIDDAY. N WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER ALL
WTRS...INCREASING TO SCA THRESHOLDS BY THE MIDDAY/AFTN HRS. ALSO
HOISTED A GALE WARNG FOR THE SRN CSTL WTRS WHERE FREQUENT GUSTS UP
TO 35 KT ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENG AND OVRNGT. WAVES OVER THE CHES BAY
WILL BLD TO 3-5 FT...WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS BLDNG TO 6-10 FT. ALL
MARINE HEADLINES END DURING THE DAY FRI AS WINDS/WAVES/SEAS
DECREASE AS HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. BENIGN MARINE CONDS CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE HI REMAINING IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ012>017-
     030>032-102.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     VAZ060>062-065>073-077>094-099-100.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ048-049-
     063-064-074>076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ095>098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ632>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630-631-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...SAM/TMG
AVIATION...MAS/DAP
MARINE...MAS








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 052049
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
349 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...AND
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER TO THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST...USHERING IN MARKEDLY COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
FRIDAY. GRADUALLY MODERATING...MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
P-TYPE TRANSITION CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTN. CONTINUED TO FOLLOW NAM12 AND HRRR, WHICH HAS
PERFORMED QUITE WELL WITH SFC TEMPS THUS FAR, AND NAM HAS BEEN
HELPFUL WITH TOP-DOWN PROCEDURES IN PINPOINTING SLEET/SNOW ZONES.
AREA OF BEST FGEN, NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH NEGATIVE SATURATED EPV
ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL VA INTO THE NORTHERN NECK THIS AFTN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A
STRONG, VERY NARROW SNOW BAND TO TRAVERSE NW ACROSS THE WARNING
AREA AND NORTHERN TIER OF THE ADVISORY AREA. AS OMEGA RAMPS UP,
THIS COULD WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG SNOWFALL RATES
UPWARDS OF 2" AN HOUR MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE RIC
METRO AREA TOWARDS SBY THROUGH 22-00Z...WHICH WILL PUSH THESE
AREAS TOWARDS FORECAST SNOW VALUES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. MEANWHILE, FARTHER SOUTH THE RIDGE HOLDING STRONG WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN A LONGER PERIOD OF `WARMER` MID-LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SLEET...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF RIC METRO AREA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VA
FOR THE MID TO LATE AFTN HOURS. AS A RESULT...SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION REMAINS LOWER ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TIER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN FAVOR OF MORE SLEET...WHILE SNOW TOTALS
HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY IN OUR WINTER STORM WARNING AREA.
FINALLY, ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, SNOW ACCUMULATION (AGAIN, PRIMARILY
FOR SLEET) HAS BEEN INCREASED WHERE MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER INTO
THE EVENING. ADDITIONALLY, WHILE SLEET REMAINS PREDOMINATE ISSUE,
A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN HAS BEEN INTRODUCED ALONG THE HIGHWAY 58
CORRIDOR INTO SE VA AND INTERIOR NE NC FOR THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

CRITICAL H85-7 THICKNESS VALUES (SUB 1540M) ARE NOT REALIZED
UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT OVER NRN HALF OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME THE STRONGEST UVM WILL BE EXITING THE
COAST. OVERALL, UTILIZING ROEBBER SLR FORECASTING TOOL ALONG WITH
LOCAL THICKNESS CHART, FORECAST SLR VALUES WILL BE QUITE LOW FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY (PERHAPS AS LOW AS 4:1-8:1). THIS MAKES SENSE
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED ONGOING PERIOD OF SLEET (WHICH WILL EAT
INTO SNOWFALL TOTALS). FURTHER, MID-LEVEL (H85-7) THICKNESSES
WILL BE `WARM` DURING THE STRONGEST FORCING THROUGH THE MID-
AFTERNOON HOURS, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. BASED ON ALL
OF THE ABOVE, HAVE CONTINUED WITH A STRIPE OF 4-5" OF SNOW/SLEET
ALONG/NORTH OF A LINE FROM CUMBERLAND, VA TO TAPPAHANNOCK AND
SALISBURY, MD (INCLUDIGN 95 CORRIDOR ABOVE ASHLAND, VA). THIS IS
BORDERED BY A BAND OF 2-3" FOR OTHER PORTIONS OF THE NW
PIEDMONT...NRN NECK...NORTHERN RIC SUBURBS AND REMAINDER OF THE
LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE. CURRENTLY 1-2" OF SLEET/SNOW IS FORECAST
FROM THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE RIC METRO /TRI-CITIES DOWN
THROUGH HAMPTON ROADS...WITH AROUND 1" OF SLEET/SNOW ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 58 CORRIDOR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VA INTO THE PIEDMONT.

WINTRY PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS EVENING...AS TOP DOWN DRYING
ENSUES W/DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE NW TO SE DURING THE LATE
EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ADVISORIES WILL RUN THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...WITH THE SE PORTION LINGERING THROUGH 3 AM WHERE DRIER
AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE. AN SPS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AFTER
ADVISORIES DROP TO ADDRESS SLIPPERY ROADS/BLACK ICE OVERNIGHT.
EARLY MORNING LOWS 10 TO 15 NORTH...MID TEENS TO AROUND 20
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ZONES. WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR 0 ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE/FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

COLD/DRY AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE LOCAL AREA FRI AS 1030+MB ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. CAA WANES...BUT
NOT BEFORE H85 TEMPS LEVEL OFF BTWN -4 AND -8C. GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE HIGHS IN THE 25-30 DEG RANGE...BUT THICKNESSES YIELD
TEMPS IN THE MID 30S. HAVE KEPT WITH PERSISTENCE OF GOING ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. UPPER 20S
INTERIOR MD ERN SHORE. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN
THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR W TO
PARTLY CLOUDY E. NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION FRI
NIGHT...RESULTING IN LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED COASTAL BOUNDARY
FRI NIGHT...BUT REMAINING OFFSHORE THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. COLD FRI NIGHT WITH WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS.

ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE
SE STATES. SWLY RETURN FLOW COMMENCES SAT...RESULTING IN MODERATING
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND TEMPS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO REBOUND NICELY
SAT...WARMING INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S
COASTAL AREAS. SKIES AVG MOSTLY CLEAR. NOT AS COLD SAT NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. WARMER SUN WITH HIGHS NEAR
NORMAL...MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S COASTAL AREAS. COLD SAT
MORNING WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOING CLOSE TO THE 12Z GFS/CMC IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WILL MAINTAIN
DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU AT LEAST MON NGT AT THIS TIME..AS HI PRES
WILL BE OVR THE AREA. THERE IS THEN A HINT OF LO PRES MOVNG NE OUT
OF THE GULF AND ACRS THE REGION TUE THRU WED. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE
SLGT CHC OF RAIN DURING THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE RDGS THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR
20S TO UPR 30S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 40S TO UPR
50S...MAYBE INTO THE 60S ON WED.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MIXTURE OF SLEET/SNOW NW OF KRIC WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WINTERY MIX WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW FM NW TO NE DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE DAY. IFR/LIFR OVER ALL TAF SITES WITH THE PCPN THROUGH
TONIGHT. TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED
AT RIC AND SBY WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES OR LESS AT THE SE TAF SITES.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FM THE N MUCH OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...PCPN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND
VFR CONDS RETURN. IMPROVING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRNT IS LOCATED NR THE NC/VA BORDER ERLY THIS MORNG...AND
WILL SLOWLY SLIDE S THRU MIDDAY. N WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER ALL
WTRS...INCREASING TO SCA THRESHOLDS BY THE MIDDAY/AFTN HRS. ALSO
HOISTED A GALE WARNG FOR THE SRN CSTL WTRS WHERE FREQUENT GUSTS UP
TO 35 KT ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENG AND OVRNGT. WAVES OVER THE CHES BAY
WILL BLD TO 3-5 FT...WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS BLDNG TO 6-10 FT. ALL
MARINE HEADLINES END DURING THE DAY FRI AS WINDS/WAVES/SEAS
DECREASE AS HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. BENIGN MARINE CONDS CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE HI REMAINING IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ012>017-
     030>032-102.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     VAZ060>062-065>073-077>094-099-100.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ048-049-
     063-064-074>076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ095>098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ632>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630-631-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...SAM/TMG
AVIATION...MAS/DAP
MARINE...MAS









000
FXUS61 KPHI 052038
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
338 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING, THEN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE
TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO
OUR NORTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FOR THE POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NJ, SNOW HAS ENDED AND THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF
A FEW INCHES OCCURRED WITH A SHARP CUTOFF AS YOU GO NORTH IN THIS
REGION.

FOR THE LEHIGH VALLEY, SNOW WILL BE ENDING BY SUNSET AND A WINTER
STORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 7PM. NUMEROUS REPORTS OF AROUND SIX
INCHES HAVE COME IN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS AND THESE HAVE BEEN
REFLECTED IN THE STORM TOTAL WEB MAP.

FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND THE PHILADELPHIA METRO REGION, A COUPLE
MORE HOURS OF MODERATE, BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE
ENDING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS 6-8, ISOLATED
HIGHER.

IN THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY, THE CHANGEOVER WAS SLOW
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL CUT INTO THE ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND
SLEET. FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND 700MB FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
ARE TAKING PLACE RESULTING IN HEAVIER BANDING, SO NOT A DRASTIC
REDUCTION IN TOTALS. SUSSEX AND CAPE MAY COUNTIES  MAY HAVE THE
HARDEST TIME REACHING WARNING CRITERIA (4-6 OR SO) WITH AREAS
FURTHER NORTH ENDING UP WITH 6 INCHES OR SO.

FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW MAINLY USED THE RAP AND WPC QPF AS A GUIDELINE
AND TOOK INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT OBS TO MAKE THE SNOW TOTAL FORECASTS
REFERENCED ABOVE.

TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE ONCE SKIES CLEAR. THIS SHOULD TAKE PLACE
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER THE SNOW ENDS GIVEN A STEEP DROP IN DEW POINTS
AND CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION. RECORD LOWS ARE POSSIBLE,
PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE
COMPOSED OF MET/MAV AND THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES FROM
THE GFS WHICH HAS DONE WELL AT NIGHT WITH SNOW COVER.

WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION,
WITH THE POCONOS SEEING WIND CHILLS WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY
THRESHOLD FOR A FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE LIMITED WINDOW AND MARGINAL
VALUES IN TERMS OF AND ADVISORY, WILL JUST CONTINUE MENTION IN THE
HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY BUT STILL
COLD. DID GO A TOUCH WARMER THAN MAV/MET GIVEN THE COOL DAYTIME BIAS
WITH SNOW COVER. OTHER ELEMENTS STRAIGHT MAV/MET. CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 MPH OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW, THIS FEATURE SHOULD AMPLIFY A LITTLE
FOR A TIME OR TWO. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS ENERGY EJECTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH A RIDGE POTENTIALLY BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.
THIS RESULTS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK.
WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT
WITH THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. WE THEN MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER A DRY AIRMASS RESULTS IN NO PRECIPITATION.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA HOWEVER ITS
CENTER SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL RETURN FLOW BEING ESTABLISHED AND AFTER A VERY COLD START
SATURDAY, SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES SUNDAY, THEN WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY. THIS
WILL DRIVE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING MONDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE AS MUCH OF THE LIFT
OCCURS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THERE COULD BE A SNOW SHOWER THOUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, THE AIRMASS
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MODIFY AS THE FLOW COMES MORE FROM THE
WEST AND NOT THE NORTH.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
PRESSURE APPEARS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH ONCE AGAIN, WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING MOSTLY TO OUR NORTHWEST. WHILE THE FLOW LOOKS FAIRLY
WEAK, ENOUGH WAA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR FURTHER
MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH MANY AREAS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ARRIVING LATE
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE
ALOFT IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA, WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM NEAR MAINE TO THE
GREAT LAKES THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE MUCH
MILDER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 50S. THE OCEAN AND
DELAWARE BAY ARE COLD AND IF THERE IS LIGHT ENOUGH FLOW, THEN A
COOLING AFFECT CAN BE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT AT ALL TAF SITES INTO
THE EVENING WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW. KRDG AND KABE WILL BE FIRST TO
IMPROVE TO VFR BY 00Z 3/6. OTHER TAF SITES WILL FOLLOW WITH AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WITH KACY LAST AROUND 03Z. NORTHERLY WINDS
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL INTO THE EVENING,
POTENTIALLY LASTING LONGER THAN CURRENT TAFS INDICATE. OVERNIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN SLIGHTLY WITH CONTINUED VFR
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING BY
LATER SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER ANY
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IT
MOVES THROUGH DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE
5 FT. IN ADDITION, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST. THEREFORE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON THE BAY, A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. FOR FRIDAY, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE SOME FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING SATURDAY. THERE IS A
CHC FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE ARE ANTICIPATING SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY DURING
MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH A SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING WE HAVE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909

THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

IT APPEARS THAT READING AND ATLANTIC CITY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF GETTING TO THEIR RECORD LOW SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ007>010-012>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GAINES/GORSE
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 052038
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
338 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING, THEN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE
TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO
OUR NORTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FOR THE POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NJ, SNOW HAS ENDED AND THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF
A FEW INCHES OCCURRED WITH A SHARP CUTOFF AS YOU GO NORTH IN THIS
REGION.

FOR THE LEHIGH VALLEY, SNOW WILL BE ENDING BY SUNSET AND A WINTER
STORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 7PM. NUMEROUS REPORTS OF AROUND SIX
INCHES HAVE COME IN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS AND THESE HAVE BEEN
REFLECTED IN THE STORM TOTAL WEB MAP.

FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND THE PHILADELPHIA METRO REGION, A COUPLE
MORE HOURS OF MODERATE, BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE
ENDING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS 6-8, ISOLATED
HIGHER.

IN THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY, THE CHANGEOVER WAS SLOW
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL CUT INTO THE ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND
SLEET. FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND 700MB FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
ARE TAKING PLACE RESULTING IN HEAVIER BANDING, SO NOT A DRASTIC
REDUCTION IN TOTALS. SUSSEX AND CAPE MAY COUNTIES  MAY HAVE THE
HARDEST TIME REACHING WARNING CRITERIA (4-6 OR SO) WITH AREAS
FURTHER NORTH ENDING UP WITH 6 INCHES OR SO.

FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW MAINLY USED THE RAP AND WPC QPF AS A GUIDELINE
AND TOOK INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT OBS TO MAKE THE SNOW TOTAL FORECASTS
REFERENCED ABOVE.

TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE ONCE SKIES CLEAR. THIS SHOULD TAKE PLACE
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER THE SNOW ENDS GIVEN A STEEP DROP IN DEW POINTS
AND CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION. RECORD LOWS ARE POSSIBLE,
PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE
COMPOSED OF MET/MAV AND THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES FROM
THE GFS WHICH HAS DONE WELL AT NIGHT WITH SNOW COVER.

WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION,
WITH THE POCONOS SEEING WIND CHILLS WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY
THRESHOLD FOR A FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE LIMITED WINDOW AND MARGINAL
VALUES IN TERMS OF AND ADVISORY, WILL JUST CONTINUE MENTION IN THE
HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY BUT STILL
COLD. DID GO A TOUCH WARMER THAN MAV/MET GIVEN THE COOL DAYTIME BIAS
WITH SNOW COVER. OTHER ELEMENTS STRAIGHT MAV/MET. CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 MPH OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW, THIS FEATURE SHOULD AMPLIFY A LITTLE
FOR A TIME OR TWO. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS ENERGY EJECTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH A RIDGE POTENTIALLY BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.
THIS RESULTS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK.
WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT
WITH THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. WE THEN MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER A DRY AIRMASS RESULTS IN NO PRECIPITATION.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA HOWEVER ITS
CENTER SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL RETURN FLOW BEING ESTABLISHED AND AFTER A VERY COLD START
SATURDAY, SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES SUNDAY, THEN WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY. THIS
WILL DRIVE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING MONDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE AS MUCH OF THE LIFT
OCCURS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THERE COULD BE A SNOW SHOWER THOUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, THE AIRMASS
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MODIFY AS THE FLOW COMES MORE FROM THE
WEST AND NOT THE NORTH.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
PRESSURE APPEARS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH ONCE AGAIN, WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING MOSTLY TO OUR NORTHWEST. WHILE THE FLOW LOOKS FAIRLY
WEAK, ENOUGH WAA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR FURTHER
MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH MANY AREAS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ARRIVING LATE
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE
ALOFT IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA, WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM NEAR MAINE TO THE
GREAT LAKES THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE MUCH
MILDER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 50S. THE OCEAN AND
DELAWARE BAY ARE COLD AND IF THERE IS LIGHT ENOUGH FLOW, THEN A
COOLING AFFECT CAN BE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT AT ALL TAF SITES INTO
THE EVENING WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW. KRDG AND KABE WILL BE FIRST TO
IMPROVE TO VFR BY 00Z 3/6. OTHER TAF SITES WILL FOLLOW WITH AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WITH KACY LAST AROUND 03Z. NORTHERLY WINDS
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL INTO THE EVENING,
POTENTIALLY LASTING LONGER THAN CURRENT TAFS INDICATE. OVERNIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN SLIGHTLY WITH CONTINUED VFR
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING BY
LATER SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER ANY
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IT
MOVES THROUGH DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE
5 FT. IN ADDITION, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST. THEREFORE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON THE BAY, A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. FOR FRIDAY, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE SOME FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING SATURDAY. THERE IS A
CHC FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE ARE ANTICIPATING SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY DURING
MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH A SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING WE HAVE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909

THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

IT APPEARS THAT READING AND ATLANTIC CITY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF GETTING TO THEIR RECORD LOW SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ007>010-012>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GAINES/GORSE
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 052038
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
338 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING, THEN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE
TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO
OUR NORTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FOR THE POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NJ, SNOW HAS ENDED AND THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF
A FEW INCHES OCCURRED WITH A SHARP CUTOFF AS YOU GO NORTH IN THIS
REGION.

FOR THE LEHIGH VALLEY, SNOW WILL BE ENDING BY SUNSET AND A WINTER
STORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 7PM. NUMEROUS REPORTS OF AROUND SIX
INCHES HAVE COME IN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS AND THESE HAVE BEEN
REFLECTED IN THE STORM TOTAL WEB MAP.

FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND THE PHILADELPHIA METRO REGION, A COUPLE
MORE HOURS OF MODERATE, BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE
ENDING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS 6-8, ISOLATED
HIGHER.

IN THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY, THE CHANGEOVER WAS SLOW
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL CUT INTO THE ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND
SLEET. FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND 700MB FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
ARE TAKING PLACE RESULTING IN HEAVIER BANDING, SO NOT A DRASTIC
REDUCTION IN TOTALS. SUSSEX AND CAPE MAY COUNTIES  MAY HAVE THE
HARDEST TIME REACHING WARNING CRITERIA (4-6 OR SO) WITH AREAS
FURTHER NORTH ENDING UP WITH 6 INCHES OR SO.

FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW MAINLY USED THE RAP AND WPC QPF AS A GUIDELINE
AND TOOK INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT OBS TO MAKE THE SNOW TOTAL FORECASTS
REFERENCED ABOVE.

TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE ONCE SKIES CLEAR. THIS SHOULD TAKE PLACE
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER THE SNOW ENDS GIVEN A STEEP DROP IN DEW POINTS
AND CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION. RECORD LOWS ARE POSSIBLE,
PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE
COMPOSED OF MET/MAV AND THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES FROM
THE GFS WHICH HAS DONE WELL AT NIGHT WITH SNOW COVER.

WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION,
WITH THE POCONOS SEEING WIND CHILLS WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY
THRESHOLD FOR A FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE LIMITED WINDOW AND MARGINAL
VALUES IN TERMS OF AND ADVISORY, WILL JUST CONTINUE MENTION IN THE
HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY BUT STILL
COLD. DID GO A TOUCH WARMER THAN MAV/MET GIVEN THE COOL DAYTIME BIAS
WITH SNOW COVER. OTHER ELEMENTS STRAIGHT MAV/MET. CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 MPH OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW, THIS FEATURE SHOULD AMPLIFY A LITTLE
FOR A TIME OR TWO. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS ENERGY EJECTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH A RIDGE POTENTIALLY BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.
THIS RESULTS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK.
WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT
WITH THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. WE THEN MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER A DRY AIRMASS RESULTS IN NO PRECIPITATION.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA HOWEVER ITS
CENTER SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL RETURN FLOW BEING ESTABLISHED AND AFTER A VERY COLD START
SATURDAY, SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES SUNDAY, THEN WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY. THIS
WILL DRIVE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING MONDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE AS MUCH OF THE LIFT
OCCURS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THERE COULD BE A SNOW SHOWER THOUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, THE AIRMASS
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MODIFY AS THE FLOW COMES MORE FROM THE
WEST AND NOT THE NORTH.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
PRESSURE APPEARS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH ONCE AGAIN, WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING MOSTLY TO OUR NORTHWEST. WHILE THE FLOW LOOKS FAIRLY
WEAK, ENOUGH WAA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR FURTHER
MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH MANY AREAS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ARRIVING LATE
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE
ALOFT IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA, WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM NEAR MAINE TO THE
GREAT LAKES THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE MUCH
MILDER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 50S. THE OCEAN AND
DELAWARE BAY ARE COLD AND IF THERE IS LIGHT ENOUGH FLOW, THEN A
COOLING AFFECT CAN BE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT AT ALL TAF SITES INTO
THE EVENING WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW. KRDG AND KABE WILL BE FIRST TO
IMPROVE TO VFR BY 00Z 3/6. OTHER TAF SITES WILL FOLLOW WITH AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WITH KACY LAST AROUND 03Z. NORTHERLY WINDS
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL INTO THE EVENING,
POTENTIALLY LASTING LONGER THAN CURRENT TAFS INDICATE. OVERNIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN SLIGHTLY WITH CONTINUED VFR
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING BY
LATER SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER ANY
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IT
MOVES THROUGH DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE
5 FT. IN ADDITION, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST. THEREFORE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON THE BAY, A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. FOR FRIDAY, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE SOME FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING SATURDAY. THERE IS A
CHC FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE ARE ANTICIPATING SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY DURING
MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH A SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING WE HAVE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909

THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

IT APPEARS THAT READING AND ATLANTIC CITY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF GETTING TO THEIR RECORD LOW SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ007>010-012>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GAINES/GORSE
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 052038
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
338 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING, THEN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE
TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO
OUR NORTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FOR THE POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NJ, SNOW HAS ENDED AND THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF
A FEW INCHES OCCURRED WITH A SHARP CUTOFF AS YOU GO NORTH IN THIS
REGION.

FOR THE LEHIGH VALLEY, SNOW WILL BE ENDING BY SUNSET AND A WINTER
STORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 7PM. NUMEROUS REPORTS OF AROUND SIX
INCHES HAVE COME IN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS AND THESE HAVE BEEN
REFLECTED IN THE STORM TOTAL WEB MAP.

FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND THE PHILADELPHIA METRO REGION, A COUPLE
MORE HOURS OF MODERATE, BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE
ENDING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS 6-8, ISOLATED
HIGHER.

IN THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY, THE CHANGEOVER WAS SLOW
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL CUT INTO THE ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND
SLEET. FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND 700MB FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
ARE TAKING PLACE RESULTING IN HEAVIER BANDING, SO NOT A DRASTIC
REDUCTION IN TOTALS. SUSSEX AND CAPE MAY COUNTIES  MAY HAVE THE
HARDEST TIME REACHING WARNING CRITERIA (4-6 OR SO) WITH AREAS
FURTHER NORTH ENDING UP WITH 6 INCHES OR SO.

FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW MAINLY USED THE RAP AND WPC QPF AS A GUIDELINE
AND TOOK INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT OBS TO MAKE THE SNOW TOTAL FORECASTS
REFERENCED ABOVE.

TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE ONCE SKIES CLEAR. THIS SHOULD TAKE PLACE
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER THE SNOW ENDS GIVEN A STEEP DROP IN DEW POINTS
AND CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION. RECORD LOWS ARE POSSIBLE,
PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE
COMPOSED OF MET/MAV AND THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES FROM
THE GFS WHICH HAS DONE WELL AT NIGHT WITH SNOW COVER.

WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION,
WITH THE POCONOS SEEING WIND CHILLS WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY
THRESHOLD FOR A FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE LIMITED WINDOW AND MARGINAL
VALUES IN TERMS OF AND ADVISORY, WILL JUST CONTINUE MENTION IN THE
HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY BUT STILL
COLD. DID GO A TOUCH WARMER THAN MAV/MET GIVEN THE COOL DAYTIME BIAS
WITH SNOW COVER. OTHER ELEMENTS STRAIGHT MAV/MET. CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 MPH OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW, THIS FEATURE SHOULD AMPLIFY A LITTLE
FOR A TIME OR TWO. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS ENERGY EJECTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH A RIDGE POTENTIALLY BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.
THIS RESULTS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK.
WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT
WITH THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. WE THEN MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER A DRY AIRMASS RESULTS IN NO PRECIPITATION.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA HOWEVER ITS
CENTER SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL RETURN FLOW BEING ESTABLISHED AND AFTER A VERY COLD START
SATURDAY, SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES SUNDAY, THEN WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY. THIS
WILL DRIVE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING MONDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE AS MUCH OF THE LIFT
OCCURS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THERE COULD BE A SNOW SHOWER THOUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, THE AIRMASS
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MODIFY AS THE FLOW COMES MORE FROM THE
WEST AND NOT THE NORTH.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
PRESSURE APPEARS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH ONCE AGAIN, WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING MOSTLY TO OUR NORTHWEST. WHILE THE FLOW LOOKS FAIRLY
WEAK, ENOUGH WAA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR FURTHER
MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH MANY AREAS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ARRIVING LATE
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE
ALOFT IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA, WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM NEAR MAINE TO THE
GREAT LAKES THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE MUCH
MILDER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 50S. THE OCEAN AND
DELAWARE BAY ARE COLD AND IF THERE IS LIGHT ENOUGH FLOW, THEN A
COOLING AFFECT CAN BE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT AT ALL TAF SITES INTO
THE EVENING WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW. KRDG AND KABE WILL BE FIRST TO
IMPROVE TO VFR BY 00Z 3/6. OTHER TAF SITES WILL FOLLOW WITH AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WITH KACY LAST AROUND 03Z. NORTHERLY WINDS
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL INTO THE EVENING,
POTENTIALLY LASTING LONGER THAN CURRENT TAFS INDICATE. OVERNIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN SLIGHTLY WITH CONTINUED VFR
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING BY
LATER SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER ANY
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IT
MOVES THROUGH DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE
5 FT. IN ADDITION, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST. THEREFORE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON THE BAY, A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. FOR FRIDAY, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE SOME FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING SATURDAY. THERE IS A
CHC FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE ARE ANTICIPATING SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY DURING
MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH A SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING WE HAVE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909

THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

IT APPEARS THAT READING AND ATLANTIC CITY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF GETTING TO THEIR RECORD LOW SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ007>010-012>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GAINES/GORSE
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 052030
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
330 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING WITH NEAR ZERO TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES
DRY AND COLD WEATHER FRIDAY. MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED
LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SNOW HAS JUST ABOUT EXITED THE CWA TO THE EAST AS DEEP MOISTURE IS
SHUNTED OUT BY SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WINTER
STORM WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE.  SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN TONIGHT...AND THE RESULTANT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
WILL ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR THIS EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW LOW
CLOUDS HANGING AROUND IN THE ZZV VICINITY AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST LINGERING MOISTURE...BUT MOST AREAS WILL CLEAR OUT. WINDS
WILL SLACKEN AS WELL...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR RARE MARCH BELOW ZERO
TEMPERATURES IN MANY AREAS. SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR RECORD LOWS IN
JEOPARDY. WITH GARRETT COUNTY HOLDING ON TO A BIT OF WIND
OVERNIGHT...WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY AS IT
WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO GET APPARENT TEMPS DOWN BELOW -15 THERE.

FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUN...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY CU TO POP. H850 WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST BY THE
END OF THE DAY...BUT WITH TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL HOVERING AROUND
-13...PLUS THE SNOWPACK...STILL EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 20S.  CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH HEADS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHEAST U.S. REMAINS
IN A PERSISTENT BUT FLATTER TROUGH ALOFT. A COUPLE OF FAIRLY WEAK
IMPULSES DROP THROUGH THE NW FLOW THIS WEEKEND. THE FIRST ARRIVES
SATURDAY AND LINGERS INTO THE FOLLOWING EVENING...AND THE SECOND
MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT. NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSED WITH QPF
POTENTIAL FROM EITHER SYSTEM GIVEN THEIR NORTHERN ORIGINS AND
THEREFORE LESSER MOISTURE CONTENT. STILL THINK CHANCE POPS LOOK
APPROPRIATE FOR MAINLY AREAS EAST OF OHIO SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.
MOST PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW...BUT A LITTLE RAIN MAY MIX IN ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIP DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ANY POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATION LOOKS QUITE LIGHT. SUNDAY WILL
FEATURE A LULL IN ACTIVITY...BEFORE THE NEXT APPROACHES LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING BY DAY AND BELOW
BY NIGHT...EXACTLY WHAT IS NEEDED FOR A SLOW AND CONTROLLED MELT. CL

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
MIDWEEK. A SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMICS...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80. MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR SETUP BY MIDWEEK...BUT
AGAIN EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACTS AS ENERGY WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH.
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED WERE BASED MAINLY ON A BLEND OF EC AND
GEFS GUIDANCE,

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MUCH DRIER AIR IS FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH AND UNDERCUTTING THE
HIGHER CLOUD COVER. IN RESPONSE...THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD DECK HAS
BROKEN AND IS BEGINNING TO SCATTER OUT. THIS IS OCCURRING WHILE
THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS PULL AWAY AS THE LARGE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY TO
THE EAST. THE RESULT WILL BE A QUICK CLEARING OF SKIES THIS
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH LIGHT SURFACE FLOW THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE TAF PERIOD.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SUNDAY MORNING COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OHIO RIVER AT THE POINT IN
PITTSBURGH...AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR CHARLEROI AND
ELIZABETH ON THE MONONGAHELA RIVER. CRESTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED
AT THESE POINTS...AND LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1926.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1960.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...2 SET IN 1978.

PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...2 SET IN 1901.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...12 SET IN
1960...1969...AND 1972.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...5 SET IN 1960.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 052030
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
330 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING WITH NEAR ZERO TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES
DRY AND COLD WEATHER FRIDAY. MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED
LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SNOW HAS JUST ABOUT EXITED THE CWA TO THE EAST AS DEEP MOISTURE IS
SHUNTED OUT BY SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WINTER
STORM WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE.  SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN TONIGHT...AND THE RESULTANT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
WILL ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR THIS EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW LOW
CLOUDS HANGING AROUND IN THE ZZV VICINITY AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST LINGERING MOISTURE...BUT MOST AREAS WILL CLEAR OUT. WINDS
WILL SLACKEN AS WELL...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR RARE MARCH BELOW ZERO
TEMPERATURES IN MANY AREAS. SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR RECORD LOWS IN
JEOPARDY. WITH GARRETT COUNTY HOLDING ON TO A BIT OF WIND
OVERNIGHT...WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY AS IT
WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO GET APPARENT TEMPS DOWN BELOW -15 THERE.

FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUN...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY CU TO POP. H850 WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST BY THE
END OF THE DAY...BUT WITH TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL HOVERING AROUND
-13...PLUS THE SNOWPACK...STILL EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 20S.  CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH HEADS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHEAST U.S. REMAINS
IN A PERSISTENT BUT FLATTER TROUGH ALOFT. A COUPLE OF FAIRLY WEAK
IMPULSES DROP THROUGH THE NW FLOW THIS WEEKEND. THE FIRST ARRIVES
SATURDAY AND LINGERS INTO THE FOLLOWING EVENING...AND THE SECOND
MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT. NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSED WITH QPF
POTENTIAL FROM EITHER SYSTEM GIVEN THEIR NORTHERN ORIGINS AND
THEREFORE LESSER MOISTURE CONTENT. STILL THINK CHANCE POPS LOOK
APPROPRIATE FOR MAINLY AREAS EAST OF OHIO SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.
MOST PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW...BUT A LITTLE RAIN MAY MIX IN ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIP DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ANY POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATION LOOKS QUITE LIGHT. SUNDAY WILL
FEATURE A LULL IN ACTIVITY...BEFORE THE NEXT APPROACHES LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING BY DAY AND BELOW
BY NIGHT...EXACTLY WHAT IS NEEDED FOR A SLOW AND CONTROLLED MELT. CL

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
MIDWEEK. A SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMICS...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80. MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR SETUP BY MIDWEEK...BUT
AGAIN EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACTS AS ENERGY WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH.
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED WERE BASED MAINLY ON A BLEND OF EC AND
GEFS GUIDANCE,

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MUCH DRIER AIR IS FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH AND UNDERCUTTING THE
HIGHER CLOUD COVER. IN RESPONSE...THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD DECK HAS
BROKEN AND IS BEGINNING TO SCATTER OUT. THIS IS OCCURRING WHILE
THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS PULL AWAY AS THE LARGE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY TO
THE EAST. THE RESULT WILL BE A QUICK CLEARING OF SKIES THIS
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH LIGHT SURFACE FLOW THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE TAF PERIOD.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SUNDAY MORNING COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OHIO RIVER AT THE POINT IN
PITTSBURGH...AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR CHARLEROI AND
ELIZABETH ON THE MONONGAHELA RIVER. CRESTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED
AT THESE POINTS...AND LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1926.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1960.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...2 SET IN 1978.

PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...2 SET IN 1901.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...12 SET IN
1960...1969...AND 1972.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...5 SET IN 1960.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 052008
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
308 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTH CAROLINA TODAY...WITH A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER TO THE
AREA...FOLLOWED BY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY. GRADUALLY
MODERATING...MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
P-TYPE TRANSITION CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTN. CONTINUED TO FOLLOW NAM12 AND HRRR, WHICH HAS
PERFORMED QUITE WELL WITH SFC TEMPS THUS FAR, AND NAM HAS BEEN
HELPFUL WITH TOP-DOWN PROCEDURES IN PINPOINTING SLEET/SNOW ZONES.
AREA OF BEST FGEN, NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH NEGATIVE SATURATED EPV
ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL VA INTO THE NORTHERN NECK THIS AFTN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A
STRONG, VERY NARROW SNOW BAND TO TRAVERSE NW ACROSS THE WARNING
AREA AND NORTHERN TIER OF THE ADVISORY AREA. AS OMEGA RAMPS UP,
THIS COULD WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG SNOWFALL RATES
UPWARDS OF 2" AN HOUR MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE RIC
METRO AREA TOWARDS SBY THROUGH 22-00Z...WHICH WILL PUSH THESE
AREAS TOWARDS FORECAST SNOW VALUES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. MEANWHILE, FARTHER SOUTH THE RIDGE HOLDING STRONG WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN A LONGER PERIOD OF `WARMER` MID-LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SLEET...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF RIC METRO AREA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VA
FOR THE MID TO LATE AFTN HOURS. AS A RESULT...SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION REMAINS LOWER ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TIER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN FAVOR OF MORE SLEET...WHILE SNOW TOTALS
HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY IN OUR WINTER STORM WARNING AREA.
FINALLY, ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, SNOW ACCUMULATION (AGAIN, PRIMARILY
FOR SLEET) HAS BEEN INCREASED WHERE MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER INTO
THE EVENING. ADDITIONALLY, WHILE SLEET REMAINS PREDOMINATE ISSUE,
A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN HAS BEEN INTRODUCED ALONG THE HIGHWAY 58
CORRIDOR INTO SE VA AND INTERIOR NE NC FOR THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

CRITICAL H85-7 THICKNESS VALUES (SUB 1540M) ARE NOT REALIZED
UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT OVER NRN HALF OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME THE STRONGEST UVM WILL BE EXITING THE
COAST. OVERALL, UTILIZING ROEBBER SLR FORECASTING TOOL ALONG WITH
LOCAL THICKNESS CHART, FORECAST SLR VALUES WILL BE QUITE LOW FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY (PERHAPS AS LOW AS 4:1-8:1). THIS MAKES SENSE
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED ONGOING PERIOD OF SLEET (WHICH WILL EAT
INTO SNOWFALL TOTALS). FURTHER, MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL BE
`WARM` DURING THE STRONGEST FORCING THROUGH THE MID-AFTERNOON
HOURS. BASED ON ALL OF THE ABOVE, HAVE CONTINUED WITH A STRIPE OF
3-5" OF SNOW/SLEET ALONG A LINE FROM CUMBERLAND, VA TO
TAPPAHANNOCK AND SALISBURY, MD. THIS IS BORDERED BY A BAND OF 2-3"
FOR OTHER PORTIONS OF THE NW PIEDMONT...NRN NECK...NORTHERN RIC
SUBURBS AND REMAINDER OF THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE. CURRENTLY
1-2" OF SLEET/SNOW IS FORECAST FROM THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
RIC METRO /TRI-CITIES DOWN THROUGH HAMPTON ROADS...WITH AROUND 1"
OF SLEET/SNOW ALONG THE HIGHWAY 58 CORRIDOR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VA
INTO THE PIEDMONT.

WINTRY PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS EVENING...AS TOP DOWN DRYING
ENSUES W/DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE NW DURING THE LATE
EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ADVISORIES WILL RUN THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...WITH THE SE PORTION LINGERING THROUGH 3 AM WHERE DRIER
AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE. AN SPS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AFTER
ADVISORIES DROP TO ADDRESS SLIPPERY ROADS/BLACK ICE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE/FAIR WEATHER TO PREVAIL DURING THE SHORT TERM.

SHORTWAVE EXITS THE NE COAST FRI MORNING WITH CONFLUENCE ALOFT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW STRONG 1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE TO CENTER OVER THE REGION FRI. COLD FRONT LOCATES
OFFSHORE...EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF. BEST MOISTURE GETS
SHUNTED OFFSHORE IN INCREASING WLY FLOW ALOFT. THE RESULT WILL BE
DRY CONDITIONS...BUT WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MODELS
CONSENSUS ATTEMPTS TO SHOW HIGHS IN THE 25-30 RANGE FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...H85 TEMPS ~-8C AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN
THE LOW-MID 30S...WITH POSSIBLY UPPER 20S OVER THE INTERIOR MD ERN
SHORE. WILL SIDE WITH THE LATER REASONING GIVEN THAT WE ARE NOW
INTO MARCH. THE NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION FRI
NIGHT...RESULTING IN LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. COLD
FRI NIGHT WITH LOW GENERALLY MID TEENS TO AROUND 20...WITH 10-15
POSSIBLE FROM INTERIOR S-CENTRAL VA TO THE ERN SHORE. ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPS SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. SWLY RETURN
FLOW COMMENCES...RESULTING IN MODERATING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND
TEMPS. THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND SUN...BUT
GUIDANCE RUNNING IN THE MID-UPPER 40S. TRENDED TOWARD
THICKNESSES...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW
TO MID 40S NEAR THE COAST...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOING CLOSE TO THE 12Z GFS/CMC IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WILL MAINTAIN
DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU AT LEAST MON NGT AT THIS TIME..AS HI PRES
WILL BE OVR THE AREA. THERE IS THEN A HINT OF LO PRES MOVNG NE OUT
OF THE GULF AND ACRS THE REGION TUE THRU WED. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE
SLGT CHC OF RAIN DURING THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE RDGS THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR
20S TO UPR 30S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 40S TO UPR
50S...MAYBE INTO THE 60S ON WED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MIXTURE OF SLEET/SNOW NW OF KRIC WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WINTERY MIX WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW FM NW TO NE DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE DAY. IFR/LIFR OVER ALL TAF SITES WITH THE PCPN THROUGH
TONIGHT. TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED
AT RIC AND SBY WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES OR LESS AT THE SE TAF SITES.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FM THE N MUCH OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...PCPN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND
VFR CONDS RETURN. IMPROVING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRNT IS LOCATED NR THE NC/VA BORDER ERLY THIS MORNG...AND
WILL SLOWLY SLIDE S THRU MIDDAY. N WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER ALL
WTRS...INCREASING TO SCA THRESHOLDS BY THE MIDDAY/AFTN HRS. ALSO
HOISTED A GALE WARNG FOR THE SRN CSTL WTRS WHERE FREQUENT GUSTS UP
TO 35 KT ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENG AND OVRNGT. WAVES OVER THE CHES BAY
WILL BLD TO 3-5 FT...WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS BLDNG TO 6-10 FT. ALL
MARINE HEADLINES END DURING THE DAY FRI AS WINDS/WAVES/SEAS
DECREASE AS HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. BENIGN MARINE CONDS CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE HI REMAINING IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ012>017-
     030>032-102.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     VAZ060>062-065>073-077>094-099-100.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ048-049-
     063-064-074>076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ095>098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ632>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630-631-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...SAM/TMG
AVIATION...MAS/DAP
MARINE...MAS








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 052008
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
308 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTH CAROLINA TODAY...WITH A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER TO THE
AREA...FOLLOWED BY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY. GRADUALLY
MODERATING...MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
P-TYPE TRANSITION CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTN. CONTINUED TO FOLLOW NAM12 AND HRRR, WHICH HAS
PERFORMED QUITE WELL WITH SFC TEMPS THUS FAR, AND NAM HAS BEEN
HELPFUL WITH TOP-DOWN PROCEDURES IN PINPOINTING SLEET/SNOW ZONES.
AREA OF BEST FGEN, NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH NEGATIVE SATURATED EPV
ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL VA INTO THE NORTHERN NECK THIS AFTN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A
STRONG, VERY NARROW SNOW BAND TO TRAVERSE NW ACROSS THE WARNING
AREA AND NORTHERN TIER OF THE ADVISORY AREA. AS OMEGA RAMPS UP,
THIS COULD WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG SNOWFALL RATES
UPWARDS OF 2" AN HOUR MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE RIC
METRO AREA TOWARDS SBY THROUGH 22-00Z...WHICH WILL PUSH THESE
AREAS TOWARDS FORECAST SNOW VALUES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. MEANWHILE, FARTHER SOUTH THE RIDGE HOLDING STRONG WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN A LONGER PERIOD OF `WARMER` MID-LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SLEET...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF RIC METRO AREA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VA
FOR THE MID TO LATE AFTN HOURS. AS A RESULT...SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION REMAINS LOWER ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TIER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN FAVOR OF MORE SLEET...WHILE SNOW TOTALS
HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY IN OUR WINTER STORM WARNING AREA.
FINALLY, ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, SNOW ACCUMULATION (AGAIN, PRIMARILY
FOR SLEET) HAS BEEN INCREASED WHERE MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER INTO
THE EVENING. ADDITIONALLY, WHILE SLEET REMAINS PREDOMINATE ISSUE,
A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN HAS BEEN INTRODUCED ALONG THE HIGHWAY 58
CORRIDOR INTO SE VA AND INTERIOR NE NC FOR THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

CRITICAL H85-7 THICKNESS VALUES (SUB 1540M) ARE NOT REALIZED
UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT OVER NRN HALF OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME THE STRONGEST UVM WILL BE EXITING THE
COAST. OVERALL, UTILIZING ROEBBER SLR FORECASTING TOOL ALONG WITH
LOCAL THICKNESS CHART, FORECAST SLR VALUES WILL BE QUITE LOW FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY (PERHAPS AS LOW AS 4:1-8:1). THIS MAKES SENSE
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED ONGOING PERIOD OF SLEET (WHICH WILL EAT
INTO SNOWFALL TOTALS). FURTHER, MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL BE
`WARM` DURING THE STRONGEST FORCING THROUGH THE MID-AFTERNOON
HOURS. BASED ON ALL OF THE ABOVE, HAVE CONTINUED WITH A STRIPE OF
3-5" OF SNOW/SLEET ALONG A LINE FROM CUMBERLAND, VA TO
TAPPAHANNOCK AND SALISBURY, MD. THIS IS BORDERED BY A BAND OF 2-3"
FOR OTHER PORTIONS OF THE NW PIEDMONT...NRN NECK...NORTHERN RIC
SUBURBS AND REMAINDER OF THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE. CURRENTLY
1-2" OF SLEET/SNOW IS FORECAST FROM THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
RIC METRO /TRI-CITIES DOWN THROUGH HAMPTON ROADS...WITH AROUND 1"
OF SLEET/SNOW ALONG THE HIGHWAY 58 CORRIDOR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VA
INTO THE PIEDMONT.

WINTRY PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS EVENING...AS TOP DOWN DRYING
ENSUES W/DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE NW DURING THE LATE
EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ADVISORIES WILL RUN THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...WITH THE SE PORTION LINGERING THROUGH 3 AM WHERE DRIER
AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE. AN SPS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AFTER
ADVISORIES DROP TO ADDRESS SLIPPERY ROADS/BLACK ICE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE/FAIR WEATHER TO PREVAIL DURING THE SHORT TERM.

SHORTWAVE EXITS THE NE COAST FRI MORNING WITH CONFLUENCE ALOFT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW STRONG 1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE TO CENTER OVER THE REGION FRI. COLD FRONT LOCATES
OFFSHORE...EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF. BEST MOISTURE GETS
SHUNTED OFFSHORE IN INCREASING WLY FLOW ALOFT. THE RESULT WILL BE
DRY CONDITIONS...BUT WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MODELS
CONSENSUS ATTEMPTS TO SHOW HIGHS IN THE 25-30 RANGE FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...H85 TEMPS ~-8C AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN
THE LOW-MID 30S...WITH POSSIBLY UPPER 20S OVER THE INTERIOR MD ERN
SHORE. WILL SIDE WITH THE LATER REASONING GIVEN THAT WE ARE NOW
INTO MARCH. THE NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION FRI
NIGHT...RESULTING IN LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. COLD
FRI NIGHT WITH LOW GENERALLY MID TEENS TO AROUND 20...WITH 10-15
POSSIBLE FROM INTERIOR S-CENTRAL VA TO THE ERN SHORE. ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPS SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. SWLY RETURN
FLOW COMMENCES...RESULTING IN MODERATING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND
TEMPS. THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND SUN...BUT
GUIDANCE RUNNING IN THE MID-UPPER 40S. TRENDED TOWARD
THICKNESSES...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW
TO MID 40S NEAR THE COAST...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOING CLOSE TO THE 12Z GFS/CMC IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WILL MAINTAIN
DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU AT LEAST MON NGT AT THIS TIME..AS HI PRES
WILL BE OVR THE AREA. THERE IS THEN A HINT OF LO PRES MOVNG NE OUT
OF THE GULF AND ACRS THE REGION TUE THRU WED. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE
SLGT CHC OF RAIN DURING THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE RDGS THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR
20S TO UPR 30S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 40S TO UPR
50S...MAYBE INTO THE 60S ON WED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MIXTURE OF SLEET/SNOW NW OF KRIC WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WINTERY MIX WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW FM NW TO NE DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE DAY. IFR/LIFR OVER ALL TAF SITES WITH THE PCPN THROUGH
TONIGHT. TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED
AT RIC AND SBY WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES OR LESS AT THE SE TAF SITES.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FM THE N MUCH OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...PCPN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND
VFR CONDS RETURN. IMPROVING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRNT IS LOCATED NR THE NC/VA BORDER ERLY THIS MORNG...AND
WILL SLOWLY SLIDE S THRU MIDDAY. N WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER ALL
WTRS...INCREASING TO SCA THRESHOLDS BY THE MIDDAY/AFTN HRS. ALSO
HOISTED A GALE WARNG FOR THE SRN CSTL WTRS WHERE FREQUENT GUSTS UP
TO 35 KT ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENG AND OVRNGT. WAVES OVER THE CHES BAY
WILL BLD TO 3-5 FT...WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS BLDNG TO 6-10 FT. ALL
MARINE HEADLINES END DURING THE DAY FRI AS WINDS/WAVES/SEAS
DECREASE AS HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. BENIGN MARINE CONDS CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE HI REMAINING IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ012>017-
     030>032-102.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     VAZ060>062-065>073-077>094-099-100.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ048-049-
     063-064-074>076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ095>098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ632>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630-631-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...SAM/TMG
AVIATION...MAS/DAP
MARINE...MAS







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 052008
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
308 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTH CAROLINA TODAY...WITH A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER TO THE
AREA...FOLLOWED BY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY. GRADUALLY
MODERATING...MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
P-TYPE TRANSITION CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTN. CONTINUED TO FOLLOW NAM12 AND HRRR, WHICH HAS
PERFORMED QUITE WELL WITH SFC TEMPS THUS FAR, AND NAM HAS BEEN
HELPFUL WITH TOP-DOWN PROCEDURES IN PINPOINTING SLEET/SNOW ZONES.
AREA OF BEST FGEN, NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH NEGATIVE SATURATED EPV
ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL VA INTO THE NORTHERN NECK THIS AFTN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A
STRONG, VERY NARROW SNOW BAND TO TRAVERSE NW ACROSS THE WARNING
AREA AND NORTHERN TIER OF THE ADVISORY AREA. AS OMEGA RAMPS UP,
THIS COULD WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG SNOWFALL RATES
UPWARDS OF 2" AN HOUR MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE RIC
METRO AREA TOWARDS SBY THROUGH 22-00Z...WHICH WILL PUSH THESE
AREAS TOWARDS FORECAST SNOW VALUES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. MEANWHILE, FARTHER SOUTH THE RIDGE HOLDING STRONG WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN A LONGER PERIOD OF `WARMER` MID-LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SLEET...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF RIC METRO AREA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VA
FOR THE MID TO LATE AFTN HOURS. AS A RESULT...SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION REMAINS LOWER ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TIER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN FAVOR OF MORE SLEET...WHILE SNOW TOTALS
HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY IN OUR WINTER STORM WARNING AREA.
FINALLY, ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, SNOW ACCUMULATION (AGAIN, PRIMARILY
FOR SLEET) HAS BEEN INCREASED WHERE MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER INTO
THE EVENING. ADDITIONALLY, WHILE SLEET REMAINS PREDOMINATE ISSUE,
A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN HAS BEEN INTRODUCED ALONG THE HIGHWAY 58
CORRIDOR INTO SE VA AND INTERIOR NE NC FOR THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

CRITICAL H85-7 THICKNESS VALUES (SUB 1540M) ARE NOT REALIZED
UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT OVER NRN HALF OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME THE STRONGEST UVM WILL BE EXITING THE
COAST. OVERALL, UTILIZING ROEBBER SLR FORECASTING TOOL ALONG WITH
LOCAL THICKNESS CHART, FORECAST SLR VALUES WILL BE QUITE LOW FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY (PERHAPS AS LOW AS 4:1-8:1). THIS MAKES SENSE
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED ONGOING PERIOD OF SLEET (WHICH WILL EAT
INTO SNOWFALL TOTALS). FURTHER, MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL BE
`WARM` DURING THE STRONGEST FORCING THROUGH THE MID-AFTERNOON
HOURS. BASED ON ALL OF THE ABOVE, HAVE CONTINUED WITH A STRIPE OF
3-5" OF SNOW/SLEET ALONG A LINE FROM CUMBERLAND, VA TO
TAPPAHANNOCK AND SALISBURY, MD. THIS IS BORDERED BY A BAND OF 2-3"
FOR OTHER PORTIONS OF THE NW PIEDMONT...NRN NECK...NORTHERN RIC
SUBURBS AND REMAINDER OF THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE. CURRENTLY
1-2" OF SLEET/SNOW IS FORECAST FROM THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
RIC METRO /TRI-CITIES DOWN THROUGH HAMPTON ROADS...WITH AROUND 1"
OF SLEET/SNOW ALONG THE HIGHWAY 58 CORRIDOR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VA
INTO THE PIEDMONT.

WINTRY PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS EVENING...AS TOP DOWN DRYING
ENSUES W/DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE NW DURING THE LATE
EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ADVISORIES WILL RUN THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...WITH THE SE PORTION LINGERING THROUGH 3 AM WHERE DRIER
AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE. AN SPS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AFTER
ADVISORIES DROP TO ADDRESS SLIPPERY ROADS/BLACK ICE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE/FAIR WEATHER TO PREVAIL DURING THE SHORT TERM.

SHORTWAVE EXITS THE NE COAST FRI MORNING WITH CONFLUENCE ALOFT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW STRONG 1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE TO CENTER OVER THE REGION FRI. COLD FRONT LOCATES
OFFSHORE...EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF. BEST MOISTURE GETS
SHUNTED OFFSHORE IN INCREASING WLY FLOW ALOFT. THE RESULT WILL BE
DRY CONDITIONS...BUT WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MODELS
CONSENSUS ATTEMPTS TO SHOW HIGHS IN THE 25-30 RANGE FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...H85 TEMPS ~-8C AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN
THE LOW-MID 30S...WITH POSSIBLY UPPER 20S OVER THE INTERIOR MD ERN
SHORE. WILL SIDE WITH THE LATER REASONING GIVEN THAT WE ARE NOW
INTO MARCH. THE NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION FRI
NIGHT...RESULTING IN LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. COLD
FRI NIGHT WITH LOW GENERALLY MID TEENS TO AROUND 20...WITH 10-15
POSSIBLE FROM INTERIOR S-CENTRAL VA TO THE ERN SHORE. ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPS SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. SWLY RETURN
FLOW COMMENCES...RESULTING IN MODERATING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND
TEMPS. THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND SUN...BUT
GUIDANCE RUNNING IN THE MID-UPPER 40S. TRENDED TOWARD
THICKNESSES...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW
TO MID 40S NEAR THE COAST...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOING CLOSE TO THE 12Z GFS/CMC IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WILL MAINTAIN
DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU AT LEAST MON NGT AT THIS TIME..AS HI PRES
WILL BE OVR THE AREA. THERE IS THEN A HINT OF LO PRES MOVNG NE OUT
OF THE GULF AND ACRS THE REGION TUE THRU WED. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE
SLGT CHC OF RAIN DURING THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE RDGS THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR
20S TO UPR 30S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 40S TO UPR
50S...MAYBE INTO THE 60S ON WED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MIXTURE OF SLEET/SNOW NW OF KRIC WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WINTERY MIX WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW FM NW TO NE DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE DAY. IFR/LIFR OVER ALL TAF SITES WITH THE PCPN THROUGH
TONIGHT. TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED
AT RIC AND SBY WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES OR LESS AT THE SE TAF SITES.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FM THE N MUCH OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...PCPN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND
VFR CONDS RETURN. IMPROVING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRNT IS LOCATED NR THE NC/VA BORDER ERLY THIS MORNG...AND
WILL SLOWLY SLIDE S THRU MIDDAY. N WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER ALL
WTRS...INCREASING TO SCA THRESHOLDS BY THE MIDDAY/AFTN HRS. ALSO
HOISTED A GALE WARNG FOR THE SRN CSTL WTRS WHERE FREQUENT GUSTS UP
TO 35 KT ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENG AND OVRNGT. WAVES OVER THE CHES BAY
WILL BLD TO 3-5 FT...WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS BLDNG TO 6-10 FT. ALL
MARINE HEADLINES END DURING THE DAY FRI AS WINDS/WAVES/SEAS
DECREASE AS HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. BENIGN MARINE CONDS CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE HI REMAINING IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ012>017-
     030>032-102.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     VAZ060>062-065>073-077>094-099-100.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ048-049-
     063-064-074>076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ095>098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ632>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630-631-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...SAM/TMG
AVIATION...MAS/DAP
MARINE...MAS







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 052008
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
308 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTH CAROLINA TODAY...WITH A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER TO THE
AREA...FOLLOWED BY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY. GRADUALLY
MODERATING...MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
P-TYPE TRANSITION CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTN. CONTINUED TO FOLLOW NAM12 AND HRRR, WHICH HAS
PERFORMED QUITE WELL WITH SFC TEMPS THUS FAR, AND NAM HAS BEEN
HELPFUL WITH TOP-DOWN PROCEDURES IN PINPOINTING SLEET/SNOW ZONES.
AREA OF BEST FGEN, NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH NEGATIVE SATURATED EPV
ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL VA INTO THE NORTHERN NECK THIS AFTN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A
STRONG, VERY NARROW SNOW BAND TO TRAVERSE NW ACROSS THE WARNING
AREA AND NORTHERN TIER OF THE ADVISORY AREA. AS OMEGA RAMPS UP,
THIS COULD WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG SNOWFALL RATES
UPWARDS OF 2" AN HOUR MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE RIC
METRO AREA TOWARDS SBY THROUGH 22-00Z...WHICH WILL PUSH THESE
AREAS TOWARDS FORECAST SNOW VALUES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. MEANWHILE, FARTHER SOUTH THE RIDGE HOLDING STRONG WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN A LONGER PERIOD OF `WARMER` MID-LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SLEET...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF RIC METRO AREA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VA
FOR THE MID TO LATE AFTN HOURS. AS A RESULT...SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION REMAINS LOWER ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TIER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN FAVOR OF MORE SLEET...WHILE SNOW TOTALS
HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY IN OUR WINTER STORM WARNING AREA.
FINALLY, ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, SNOW ACCUMULATION (AGAIN, PRIMARILY
FOR SLEET) HAS BEEN INCREASED WHERE MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER INTO
THE EVENING. ADDITIONALLY, WHILE SLEET REMAINS PREDOMINATE ISSUE,
A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN HAS BEEN INTRODUCED ALONG THE HIGHWAY 58
CORRIDOR INTO SE VA AND INTERIOR NE NC FOR THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

CRITICAL H85-7 THICKNESS VALUES (SUB 1540M) ARE NOT REALIZED
UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT OVER NRN HALF OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME THE STRONGEST UVM WILL BE EXITING THE
COAST. OVERALL, UTILIZING ROEBBER SLR FORECASTING TOOL ALONG WITH
LOCAL THICKNESS CHART, FORECAST SLR VALUES WILL BE QUITE LOW FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY (PERHAPS AS LOW AS 4:1-8:1). THIS MAKES SENSE
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED ONGOING PERIOD OF SLEET (WHICH WILL EAT
INTO SNOWFALL TOTALS). FURTHER, MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL BE
`WARM` DURING THE STRONGEST FORCING THROUGH THE MID-AFTERNOON
HOURS. BASED ON ALL OF THE ABOVE, HAVE CONTINUED WITH A STRIPE OF
3-5" OF SNOW/SLEET ALONG A LINE FROM CUMBERLAND, VA TO
TAPPAHANNOCK AND SALISBURY, MD. THIS IS BORDERED BY A BAND OF 2-3"
FOR OTHER PORTIONS OF THE NW PIEDMONT...NRN NECK...NORTHERN RIC
SUBURBS AND REMAINDER OF THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE. CURRENTLY
1-2" OF SLEET/SNOW IS FORECAST FROM THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
RIC METRO /TRI-CITIES DOWN THROUGH HAMPTON ROADS...WITH AROUND 1"
OF SLEET/SNOW ALONG THE HIGHWAY 58 CORRIDOR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VA
INTO THE PIEDMONT.

WINTRY PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS EVENING...AS TOP DOWN DRYING
ENSUES W/DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE NW DURING THE LATE
EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ADVISORIES WILL RUN THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...WITH THE SE PORTION LINGERING THROUGH 3 AM WHERE DRIER
AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE. AN SPS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AFTER
ADVISORIES DROP TO ADDRESS SLIPPERY ROADS/BLACK ICE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE/FAIR WEATHER TO PREVAIL DURING THE SHORT TERM.

SHORTWAVE EXITS THE NE COAST FRI MORNING WITH CONFLUENCE ALOFT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW STRONG 1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE TO CENTER OVER THE REGION FRI. COLD FRONT LOCATES
OFFSHORE...EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF. BEST MOISTURE GETS
SHUNTED OFFSHORE IN INCREASING WLY FLOW ALOFT. THE RESULT WILL BE
DRY CONDITIONS...BUT WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MODELS
CONSENSUS ATTEMPTS TO SHOW HIGHS IN THE 25-30 RANGE FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...H85 TEMPS ~-8C AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN
THE LOW-MID 30S...WITH POSSIBLY UPPER 20S OVER THE INTERIOR MD ERN
SHORE. WILL SIDE WITH THE LATER REASONING GIVEN THAT WE ARE NOW
INTO MARCH. THE NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION FRI
NIGHT...RESULTING IN LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. COLD
FRI NIGHT WITH LOW GENERALLY MID TEENS TO AROUND 20...WITH 10-15
POSSIBLE FROM INTERIOR S-CENTRAL VA TO THE ERN SHORE. ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPS SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. SWLY RETURN
FLOW COMMENCES...RESULTING IN MODERATING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND
TEMPS. THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND SUN...BUT
GUIDANCE RUNNING IN THE MID-UPPER 40S. TRENDED TOWARD
THICKNESSES...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW
TO MID 40S NEAR THE COAST...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOING CLOSE TO THE 12Z GFS/CMC IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WILL MAINTAIN
DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU AT LEAST MON NGT AT THIS TIME..AS HI PRES
WILL BE OVR THE AREA. THERE IS THEN A HINT OF LO PRES MOVNG NE OUT
OF THE GULF AND ACRS THE REGION TUE THRU WED. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE
SLGT CHC OF RAIN DURING THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE RDGS THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR
20S TO UPR 30S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 40S TO UPR
50S...MAYBE INTO THE 60S ON WED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MIXTURE OF SLEET/SNOW NW OF KRIC WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WINTERY MIX WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW FM NW TO NE DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE DAY. IFR/LIFR OVER ALL TAF SITES WITH THE PCPN THROUGH
TONIGHT. TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED
AT RIC AND SBY WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES OR LESS AT THE SE TAF SITES.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FM THE N MUCH OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...PCPN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND
VFR CONDS RETURN. IMPROVING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRNT IS LOCATED NR THE NC/VA BORDER ERLY THIS MORNG...AND
WILL SLOWLY SLIDE S THRU MIDDAY. N WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER ALL
WTRS...INCREASING TO SCA THRESHOLDS BY THE MIDDAY/AFTN HRS. ALSO
HOISTED A GALE WARNG FOR THE SRN CSTL WTRS WHERE FREQUENT GUSTS UP
TO 35 KT ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENG AND OVRNGT. WAVES OVER THE CHES BAY
WILL BLD TO 3-5 FT...WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS BLDNG TO 6-10 FT. ALL
MARINE HEADLINES END DURING THE DAY FRI AS WINDS/WAVES/SEAS
DECREASE AS HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. BENIGN MARINE CONDS CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE HI REMAINING IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ012>017-
     030>032-102.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     VAZ060>062-065>073-077>094-099-100.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ048-049-
     063-064-074>076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ095>098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ632>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630-631-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...SAM/TMG
AVIATION...MAS/DAP
MARINE...MAS








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 052006
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
306 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTH CAROLINA TODAY...WITH A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER TO THE
AREA...FOLLOWED BY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY. GRADUALLY
MODERATING...MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
P-TYPE TRANSITION CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTN. CONTINUED TO FOLLOW NAM12 AND HRRR, WHICH HAS
PERFORMED QUITE WELL WITH SFC TEMPS THUS FAR, AND NAM HAS BEEN
HELPFUL WITH TOP-DOWN PROCEDURES IN PINPOINTING SLEET/SNOW ZONES.
AREA OF BEST FGEN, NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH NEGATIVE SATURATED EPV
ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL VA INTO THE NORTHERN NECK THIS AFTN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A
STRONG, VERY NARROW SNOW BAND TO DEVELOP IN THE WARNING AREA AND
NORTHERN TIER OF THE ADVISORY AREA. AS OMEGA RAMPS UP, THIS COULD
WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG SNOWFALL RATES UPWARDS OF
2" AN HOUR MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE RIC METRO AREA
TOWARDS SBY THROUGH 22-00Z...WHICH WILL PUSH THESE AREAS TOWARDS
FORECAST SNOW VALUES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES.
MEANWHILE, FARTHER SOUTH THE RIDGE HOLDING STRONG WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A LONGER PERIOD OF `WARMER` MID-LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SLEET...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF RIC METRO AREA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VA
FOR THE MID TO LATE AFTN HOURS. AS A RESULT...SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION REMAINS LOWER ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TIER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN FAVOR OF MORE SLEET...WHILE SNOW TOTALS
HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY IN OUR WINTER STORM WARNING AREA.
FINALLY, ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, SNOW ACCUMULATION (AGAIN, PRIMARILY
FOR SLEET) HAS BEEN INCREASED WHERE MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER INTO
THE EVENING. ADDITIONALLY, WHILE SLEET REMAINS PREDOMINATE ISSUE,
A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN HAS BEEN INTRODUCED ALONG THE HIGHWAY 58
CORRIDOR INTO SE VA AND INTERIOR NE NC FOR THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

CRITICAL H85-7 THICKNESS VALUES (SUB 1540M) ARE NOT REALIZED
UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT OVER NRN HALF OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME THE STRONGEST UVM WILL BE EXITING THE
COAST. OVERALL, UTILIZING ROEBBER SLR FORECASTING TOOL ALONG WITH
LOCAL THICKNESS CHART, FORECAST SLR VALUES WILL BE QUITE LOW FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY (PERHAPS AS LOW AS 4:1-8:1). THIS MAKES SENSE
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED ONGOING PERIOD OF SLEET (WHICH WILL EAT
INTO SNOWFALL TOTALS). FURTHER, MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL BE
`WARM` DURING THE STRONGEST FORCING THROUGH THE MID-AFTERNOON
HOURS. BASED ON ALL OF THE ABOVE, HAVE CONTINUED WITH A STRIPE OF
3-5" OF SNOW/SLEET ALONG A LINE FROM CUMBERLAND, VA TO
TAPPAHANNOCK AND SALISBURY, MD. THIS IS BORDERED BY A BAND OF 2-3"
FOR OTHER PORTIONS OF THE NW PIEDMONT...NRN NECK...NORTHERN RIC
SUBURBS AND REMAINDER OF THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE. CURRENTLY
1-2" OF SLEET/SNOW IS FORECAST FROM THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
RIC METRO /TRI-CITIES DOWN THROUGH HAMPTON ROADS...WITH AROUND 1"
OF SLEET/SNOW ALONG THE HIGHWAY 58 CORRIDOR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VA
INTO THE PIEDMONT.

WINTRY PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS EVENING...AS TOP DOWN DRYING
ENSUES W/DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE NW DURING THE LATE
EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ADVISORIES WILL RUN THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...WITH THE SE PORTION LINGERING THROUGH 3 AM WHERE DRIER
AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE. AN SPS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AFTER
ADVISORIES DROP TO ADDRESS SLIPPERY ROADS/BLACK ICE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE/FAIR WEATHER TO PREVAIL DURING THE SHORT TERM.

SHORTWAVE EXITS THE NE COAST FRI MORNING WITH CONFLUENCE ALOFT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW STRONG 1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE TO CENTER OVER THE REGION FRI. COLD FRONT LOCATES
OFFSHORE...EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF. BEST MOISTURE GETS
SHUNTED OFFSHORE IN INCREASING WLY FLOW ALOFT. THE RESULT WILL BE
DRY CONDITIONS...BUT WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MODELS
CONSENSUS ATTEMPTS TO SHOW HIGHS IN THE 25-30 RANGE FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...H85 TEMPS ~-8C AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN
THE LOW-MID 30S...WITH POSSIBLY UPPER 20S OVER THE INTERIOR MD ERN
SHORE. WILL SIDE WITH THE LATER REASONING GIVEN THAT WE ARE NOW
INTO MARCH. THE NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION FRI
NIGHT...RESULTING IN LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. COLD
FRI NIGHT WITH LOW GENERALLY MID TEENS TO AROUND 20...WITH 10-15
POSSIBLE FROM INTERIOR S-CENTRAL VA TO THE ERN SHORE. ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPS SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. SWLY RETURN
FLOW COMMENCES...RESULTING IN MODERATING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND
TEMPS. THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND SUN...BUT
GUIDANCE RUNNING IN THE MID-UPPER 40S. TRENDED TOWARD
THICKNESSES...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW
TO MID 40S NEAR THE COAST...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOING CLOSE TO THE 12Z GFS/CMC IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WILL MAINTAIN
DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU AT LEAST MON NGT AT THIS TIME..AS HI PRES
WILL BE OVR THE AREA. THERE IS THEN A HINT OF LO PRES MOVNG NE OUT
OF THE GULF AND ACRS THE REGION TUE THRU WED. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE
SLGT CHC OF RAIN DURING THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE RDGS THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR
20S TO UPR 30S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 40S TO UPR
50S...MAYBE INTO THE 60S ON WED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MIXTURE OF SLEET/SNOW NW OF KRIC WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WINTERY MIX WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW FM NW TO NE DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE DAY. IFR/LIFR OVER ALL TAF SITES WITH THE PCPN THROUGH
TONIGHT. TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED
AT RIC AND SBY WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES OR LESS AT THE SE TAF SITES.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FM THE N MUCH OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...PCPN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND
VFR CONDS RETURN. IMPROVING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRNT IS LOCATED NR THE NC/VA BORDER ERLY THIS MORNG...AND
WILL SLOWLY SLIDE S THRU MIDDAY. N WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER ALL
WTRS...INCREASING TO SCA THRESHOLDS BY THE MIDDAY/AFTN HRS. ALSO
HOISTED A GALE WARNG FOR THE SRN CSTL WTRS WHERE FREQUENT GUSTS UP
TO 35 KT ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENG AND OVRNGT. WAVES OVER THE CHES BAY
WILL BLD TO 3-5 FT...WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS BLDNG TO 6-10 FT. ALL
MARINE HEADLINES END DURING THE DAY FRI AS WINDS/WAVES/SEAS
DECREASE AS HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. BENIGN MARINE CONDS CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE HI REMAINING IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ012>017-
     030>032-102.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     VAZ060>062-065>073-077>094-099-100.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ048-049-
     063-064-074>076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ095>098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ632>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630-631-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...SAM/TMG
AVIATION...MAS/DAP
MARINE...MAS






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 052006
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
306 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTH CAROLINA TODAY...WITH A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER TO THE
AREA...FOLLOWED BY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY. GRADUALLY
MODERATING...MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
P-TYPE TRANSITION CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTN. CONTINUED TO FOLLOW NAM12 AND HRRR, WHICH HAS
PERFORMED QUITE WELL WITH SFC TEMPS THUS FAR, AND NAM HAS BEEN
HELPFUL WITH TOP-DOWN PROCEDURES IN PINPOINTING SLEET/SNOW ZONES.
AREA OF BEST FGEN, NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH NEGATIVE SATURATED EPV
ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL VA INTO THE NORTHERN NECK THIS AFTN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A
STRONG, VERY NARROW SNOW BAND TO DEVELOP IN THE WARNING AREA AND
NORTHERN TIER OF THE ADVISORY AREA. AS OMEGA RAMPS UP, THIS COULD
WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG SNOWFALL RATES UPWARDS OF
2" AN HOUR MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE RIC METRO AREA
TOWARDS SBY THROUGH 22-00Z...WHICH WILL PUSH THESE AREAS TOWARDS
FORECAST SNOW VALUES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES.
MEANWHILE, FARTHER SOUTH THE RIDGE HOLDING STRONG WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A LONGER PERIOD OF `WARMER` MID-LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SLEET...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF RIC METRO AREA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VA
FOR THE MID TO LATE AFTN HOURS. AS A RESULT...SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION REMAINS LOWER ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TIER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN FAVOR OF MORE SLEET...WHILE SNOW TOTALS
HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY IN OUR WINTER STORM WARNING AREA.
FINALLY, ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, SNOW ACCUMULATION (AGAIN, PRIMARILY
FOR SLEET) HAS BEEN INCREASED WHERE MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER INTO
THE EVENING. ADDITIONALLY, WHILE SLEET REMAINS PREDOMINATE ISSUE,
A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN HAS BEEN INTRODUCED ALONG THE HIGHWAY 58
CORRIDOR INTO SE VA AND INTERIOR NE NC FOR THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

CRITICAL H85-7 THICKNESS VALUES (SUB 1540M) ARE NOT REALIZED
UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT OVER NRN HALF OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME THE STRONGEST UVM WILL BE EXITING THE
COAST. OVERALL, UTILIZING ROEBBER SLR FORECASTING TOOL ALONG WITH
LOCAL THICKNESS CHART, FORECAST SLR VALUES WILL BE QUITE LOW FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY (PERHAPS AS LOW AS 4:1-8:1). THIS MAKES SENSE
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED ONGOING PERIOD OF SLEET (WHICH WILL EAT
INTO SNOWFALL TOTALS). FURTHER, MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL BE
`WARM` DURING THE STRONGEST FORCING THROUGH THE MID-AFTERNOON
HOURS. BASED ON ALL OF THE ABOVE, HAVE CONTINUED WITH A STRIPE OF
3-5" OF SNOW/SLEET ALONG A LINE FROM CUMBERLAND, VA TO
TAPPAHANNOCK AND SALISBURY, MD. THIS IS BORDERED BY A BAND OF 2-3"
FOR OTHER PORTIONS OF THE NW PIEDMONT...NRN NECK...NORTHERN RIC
SUBURBS AND REMAINDER OF THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE. CURRENTLY
1-2" OF SLEET/SNOW IS FORECAST FROM THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
RIC METRO /TRI-CITIES DOWN THROUGH HAMPTON ROADS...WITH AROUND 1"
OF SLEET/SNOW ALONG THE HIGHWAY 58 CORRIDOR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VA
INTO THE PIEDMONT.

WINTRY PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS EVENING...AS TOP DOWN DRYING
ENSUES W/DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE NW DURING THE LATE
EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ADVISORIES WILL RUN THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...WITH THE SE PORTION LINGERING THROUGH 3 AM WHERE DRIER
AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE. AN SPS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AFTER
ADVISORIES DROP TO ADDRESS SLIPPERY ROADS/BLACK ICE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE/FAIR WEATHER TO PREVAIL DURING THE SHORT TERM.

SHORTWAVE EXITS THE NE COAST FRI MORNING WITH CONFLUENCE ALOFT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW STRONG 1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE TO CENTER OVER THE REGION FRI. COLD FRONT LOCATES
OFFSHORE...EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF. BEST MOISTURE GETS
SHUNTED OFFSHORE IN INCREASING WLY FLOW ALOFT. THE RESULT WILL BE
DRY CONDITIONS...BUT WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MODELS
CONSENSUS ATTEMPTS TO SHOW HIGHS IN THE 25-30 RANGE FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...H85 TEMPS ~-8C AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN
THE LOW-MID 30S...WITH POSSIBLY UPPER 20S OVER THE INTERIOR MD ERN
SHORE. WILL SIDE WITH THE LATER REASONING GIVEN THAT WE ARE NOW
INTO MARCH. THE NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION FRI
NIGHT...RESULTING IN LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. COLD
FRI NIGHT WITH LOW GENERALLY MID TEENS TO AROUND 20...WITH 10-15
POSSIBLE FROM INTERIOR S-CENTRAL VA TO THE ERN SHORE. ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPS SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. SWLY RETURN
FLOW COMMENCES...RESULTING IN MODERATING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND
TEMPS. THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND SUN...BUT
GUIDANCE RUNNING IN THE MID-UPPER 40S. TRENDED TOWARD
THICKNESSES...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW
TO MID 40S NEAR THE COAST...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOING CLOSE TO THE 12Z GFS/CMC IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WILL MAINTAIN
DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU AT LEAST MON NGT AT THIS TIME..AS HI PRES
WILL BE OVR THE AREA. THERE IS THEN A HINT OF LO PRES MOVNG NE OUT
OF THE GULF AND ACRS THE REGION TUE THRU WED. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE
SLGT CHC OF RAIN DURING THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE RDGS THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR
20S TO UPR 30S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 40S TO UPR
50S...MAYBE INTO THE 60S ON WED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MIXTURE OF SLEET/SNOW NW OF KRIC WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WINTERY MIX WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW FM NW TO NE DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE DAY. IFR/LIFR OVER ALL TAF SITES WITH THE PCPN THROUGH
TONIGHT. TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED
AT RIC AND SBY WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES OR LESS AT THE SE TAF SITES.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FM THE N MUCH OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...PCPN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND
VFR CONDS RETURN. IMPROVING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRNT IS LOCATED NR THE NC/VA BORDER ERLY THIS MORNG...AND
WILL SLOWLY SLIDE S THRU MIDDAY. N WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER ALL
WTRS...INCREASING TO SCA THRESHOLDS BY THE MIDDAY/AFTN HRS. ALSO
HOISTED A GALE WARNG FOR THE SRN CSTL WTRS WHERE FREQUENT GUSTS UP
TO 35 KT ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENG AND OVRNGT. WAVES OVER THE CHES BAY
WILL BLD TO 3-5 FT...WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS BLDNG TO 6-10 FT. ALL
MARINE HEADLINES END DURING THE DAY FRI AS WINDS/WAVES/SEAS
DECREASE AS HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. BENIGN MARINE CONDS CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE HI REMAINING IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ012>017-
     030>032-102.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     VAZ060>062-065>073-077>094-099-100.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ048-049-
     063-064-074>076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ095>098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ632>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630-631-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...SAM/TMG
AVIATION...MAS/DAP
MARINE...MAS







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 052006
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
306 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTH CAROLINA TODAY...WITH A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER TO THE
AREA...FOLLOWED BY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY. GRADUALLY
MODERATING...MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
P-TYPE TRANSITION CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTN. CONTINUED TO FOLLOW NAM12 AND HRRR, WHICH HAS
PERFORMED QUITE WELL WITH SFC TEMPS THUS FAR, AND NAM HAS BEEN
HELPFUL WITH TOP-DOWN PROCEDURES IN PINPOINTING SLEET/SNOW ZONES.
AREA OF BEST FGEN, NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH NEGATIVE SATURATED EPV
ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL VA INTO THE NORTHERN NECK THIS AFTN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A
STRONG, VERY NARROW SNOW BAND TO DEVELOP IN THE WARNING AREA AND
NORTHERN TIER OF THE ADVISORY AREA. AS OMEGA RAMPS UP, THIS COULD
WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG SNOWFALL RATES UPWARDS OF
2" AN HOUR MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE RIC METRO AREA
TOWARDS SBY THROUGH 22-00Z...WHICH WILL PUSH THESE AREAS TOWARDS
FORECAST SNOW VALUES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES.
MEANWHILE, FARTHER SOUTH THE RIDGE HOLDING STRONG WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A LONGER PERIOD OF `WARMER` MID-LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SLEET...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF RIC METRO AREA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VA
FOR THE MID TO LATE AFTN HOURS. AS A RESULT...SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION REMAINS LOWER ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TIER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN FAVOR OF MORE SLEET...WHILE SNOW TOTALS
HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY IN OUR WINTER STORM WARNING AREA.
FINALLY, ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, SNOW ACCUMULATION (AGAIN, PRIMARILY
FOR SLEET) HAS BEEN INCREASED WHERE MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER INTO
THE EVENING. ADDITIONALLY, WHILE SLEET REMAINS PREDOMINATE ISSUE,
A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN HAS BEEN INTRODUCED ALONG THE HIGHWAY 58
CORRIDOR INTO SE VA AND INTERIOR NE NC FOR THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

CRITICAL H85-7 THICKNESS VALUES (SUB 1540M) ARE NOT REALIZED
UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT OVER NRN HALF OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME THE STRONGEST UVM WILL BE EXITING THE
COAST. OVERALL, UTILIZING ROEBBER SLR FORECASTING TOOL ALONG WITH
LOCAL THICKNESS CHART, FORECAST SLR VALUES WILL BE QUITE LOW FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY (PERHAPS AS LOW AS 4:1-8:1). THIS MAKES SENSE
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED ONGOING PERIOD OF SLEET (WHICH WILL EAT
INTO SNOWFALL TOTALS). FURTHER, MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL BE
`WARM` DURING THE STRONGEST FORCING THROUGH THE MID-AFTERNOON
HOURS. BASED ON ALL OF THE ABOVE, HAVE CONTINUED WITH A STRIPE OF
3-5" OF SNOW/SLEET ALONG A LINE FROM CUMBERLAND, VA TO
TAPPAHANNOCK AND SALISBURY, MD. THIS IS BORDERED BY A BAND OF 2-3"
FOR OTHER PORTIONS OF THE NW PIEDMONT...NRN NECK...NORTHERN RIC
SUBURBS AND REMAINDER OF THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE. CURRENTLY
1-2" OF SLEET/SNOW IS FORECAST FROM THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
RIC METRO /TRI-CITIES DOWN THROUGH HAMPTON ROADS...WITH AROUND 1"
OF SLEET/SNOW ALONG THE HIGHWAY 58 CORRIDOR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VA
INTO THE PIEDMONT.

WINTRY PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS EVENING...AS TOP DOWN DRYING
ENSUES W/DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE NW DURING THE LATE
EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ADVISORIES WILL RUN THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...WITH THE SE PORTION LINGERING THROUGH 3 AM WHERE DRIER
AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE. AN SPS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AFTER
ADVISORIES DROP TO ADDRESS SLIPPERY ROADS/BLACK ICE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE/FAIR WEATHER TO PREVAIL DURING THE SHORT TERM.

SHORTWAVE EXITS THE NE COAST FRI MORNING WITH CONFLUENCE ALOFT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW STRONG 1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE TO CENTER OVER THE REGION FRI. COLD FRONT LOCATES
OFFSHORE...EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF. BEST MOISTURE GETS
SHUNTED OFFSHORE IN INCREASING WLY FLOW ALOFT. THE RESULT WILL BE
DRY CONDITIONS...BUT WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MODELS
CONSENSUS ATTEMPTS TO SHOW HIGHS IN THE 25-30 RANGE FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...H85 TEMPS ~-8C AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN
THE LOW-MID 30S...WITH POSSIBLY UPPER 20S OVER THE INTERIOR MD ERN
SHORE. WILL SIDE WITH THE LATER REASONING GIVEN THAT WE ARE NOW
INTO MARCH. THE NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION FRI
NIGHT...RESULTING IN LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. COLD
FRI NIGHT WITH LOW GENERALLY MID TEENS TO AROUND 20...WITH 10-15
POSSIBLE FROM INTERIOR S-CENTRAL VA TO THE ERN SHORE. ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPS SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. SWLY RETURN
FLOW COMMENCES...RESULTING IN MODERATING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND
TEMPS. THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND SUN...BUT
GUIDANCE RUNNING IN THE MID-UPPER 40S. TRENDED TOWARD
THICKNESSES...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW
TO MID 40S NEAR THE COAST...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOING CLOSE TO THE 12Z GFS/CMC IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WILL MAINTAIN
DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU AT LEAST MON NGT AT THIS TIME..AS HI PRES
WILL BE OVR THE AREA. THERE IS THEN A HINT OF LO PRES MOVNG NE OUT
OF THE GULF AND ACRS THE REGION TUE THRU WED. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE
SLGT CHC OF RAIN DURING THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE RDGS THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR
20S TO UPR 30S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 40S TO UPR
50S...MAYBE INTO THE 60S ON WED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MIXTURE OF SLEET/SNOW NW OF KRIC WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WINTERY MIX WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW FM NW TO NE DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE DAY. IFR/LIFR OVER ALL TAF SITES WITH THE PCPN THROUGH
TONIGHT. TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED
AT RIC AND SBY WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES OR LESS AT THE SE TAF SITES.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FM THE N MUCH OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...PCPN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND
VFR CONDS RETURN. IMPROVING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRNT IS LOCATED NR THE NC/VA BORDER ERLY THIS MORNG...AND
WILL SLOWLY SLIDE S THRU MIDDAY. N WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER ALL
WTRS...INCREASING TO SCA THRESHOLDS BY THE MIDDAY/AFTN HRS. ALSO
HOISTED A GALE WARNG FOR THE SRN CSTL WTRS WHERE FREQUENT GUSTS UP
TO 35 KT ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENG AND OVRNGT. WAVES OVER THE CHES BAY
WILL BLD TO 3-5 FT...WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS BLDNG TO 6-10 FT. ALL
MARINE HEADLINES END DURING THE DAY FRI AS WINDS/WAVES/SEAS
DECREASE AS HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. BENIGN MARINE CONDS CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE HI REMAINING IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ012>017-
     030>032-102.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     VAZ060>062-065>073-077>094-099-100.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ048-049-
     063-064-074>076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ095>098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ632>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630-631-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...SAM/TMG
AVIATION...MAS/DAP
MARINE...MAS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 051950
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
250 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING TO THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS PRVSLY PROGGED...BAND OF HVY SNW HAS DROPPED ACRS CENTRL VA
AND SRN MD. THIS IS THE AREA WHERE MID-LVL FGEN FORCING RESIDES.
WHEN THE FORCING AND LIFT COMBINED OVER CENTRAL MD/ERN WVA/NRN VA
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES/HR WERE OBSRVD. BASED ON OBS SINCE
18Z...BELIEVE THE SAME OCCURRING OVER CENTRL VA ATTM. THAT WL
QUICKLY MAKE UP FOR THE LACK OF SNOW DURING THE MRNG. MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO SNOW TTL MAP. END RESULT A WIDESPREAD 4-8
INCHES...W/ A CPL BANDS UP TO 10 INCHES PSBL.

ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL WIND DOWN DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS CNVGNC SLIDES SE OF THE AREA. HWVR...RRQ OF UPR JET WL
ARRIVE AS MID- LVL FORCING DEPARTS. THAT SUGGESTS THAT FLURRIES
MAY LINGER INTO THE EVNG. STILL HV ACCUM SNOW /FRACTION OF AN
INCH/ INTO ELY EVNG ACRS SRN MD. NO ADDTL SNOWFALL XPCTD ELSW.

MEAN LYR RH DROPS RAPIDLY OVNGT...WHICH SHUD ALLOW CLDS TO SCATTER
OUT. MEANWHILE THE DRY ARCTIC AMS WL CONT TO STREAM IN. KEPT A
MIN-T FCST THAT FOCUSED ON A MOS MEAN...LWRG BY A DEGF OR TWO FOR
THE FRESH SNOW AND CLRG SKIES. WHILE WINDS SHUD DIMINISH OVNGT...
DONT BELIEVE THEY WL OUTRIGHT DCPL. THAT COMBO PLACES OUTLYING
AREA OF CWFA...FM DC/BALT NWRN BURBS TO BLURDG WWD...AT THE
THRESHOLD FOR WIND CHILL ADVY. OPTED IN TO ALERT SNOW STORM
RECOVERY EFFORTS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIPRES BLDS INTO CWFA FRIDAY. NRN STREAM S/WV ENERGY WL OVERRIDE
RDG...WHICH WL ERASE THE SUNNY START TO THE DAY. XPCT MOCLDY TO
PREVAIL DURING THE AFTN-EVE HRS.

THE THERMAL TROF WL BE CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE DAY. AS A
RESULT...FRI WL BE A COOLER DAY W/ MAXT IN THE MID-UPR 20S AND
MIN-T 10-15F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WHILE SOME WARMING BEGINS
SATURDAY...SNOW COVER WILL LIKELY TEMPER THIS TREND INITIALLY. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S NORTH AND
50S SOUTH.

LIGHT LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND
CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. RAISED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SUNDAY WILL FINALLY BE ABOVE FREEZING...EXCEPT IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WHERE UPPER 20S WILL BE MORE COMMON. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS REMAINING AOA FREEZING THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALSO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL. KEPT TUESDAY A LITTLE
COOLER THAN THE REST OF THE WEEK DUE TO POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER FROM
APPROACHING SYSTEM. STILL UNCLEAR IF THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT OUR
AREA OR SKIRT TO OUR SOUTH...FOR NOW LEFT SCHC POPS IN OUR FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE TERMINALS. IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED IN SNOWFALL THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE TERMINALS. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5
TO 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS HV YET TO REALLY DVLP TDA...ASIDE FM AN OCNL GUST.
STILL BELIEVE POTL EXISTS AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN AND PCPN MOVES
OUT. IN FACT...THE LACK OF PCPN MAY FACILITATE FULL MIXING. HV SCA
CONDS FOR ALL WATERS TNGT...AND ADJUSTED CONTINUATION INTO FRI
MRNG FOR THE BAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE WEEKEND...SO NOT EXPECTING
ANY MARINE CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ICE-INDUCED STREAM RISES HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. MANY OF THE STREAMS HAVE NOW CRESTED AND
ARE FALLING. IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT THERE IS AN ICE JAM ON THE
LOST/CACAPON RIVER IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA ABOVE GREAT CACAPON THAT
HAS NOT YET BROKEN...BUT WITH COLD AIR NOW BACK IN PLACE...IT MAY
NOT UNTIL TEMPERATURES WARM AGAIN...KEEPING RISES GRADUAL FOR NOW.

ALSO APPEARS THERE MAY BE SOME SORT OF ICE EFFECT ON GOOSE CREEK
BETWEEN EVERGREEN MILLS AND LANSDOWNE. THE CURRENT STAGE/FLOW AT THE
EVERGREEN MILLS GAUGE IS HIGHER THAN WOULD BE EXPECTED BASED ON
UPSTREAM SITES...AND STILL RISING. STILL A FEW FEET BELOW FLOOD
STAGE AT THIS TIME.

SINCE THERE ARE NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EVENTS AFTER TODAY FOR
AT LEAST A WEEK...THE MELT OF THE NEWLY-FALLEN SNOW SHOULD BE
GRADUAL. SO THE FLOOD THREAT FROM THAT SHOULD BE MINIMAL BUT WILL BE
MONITORED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ003>006-011-501>508.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR MDZ003>006-501>507.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ013-
     014-016-018.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ017.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ025>031-040-501-503>508.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR VAZ025>031-040-501-503>508.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ038-
     039-050>055-502.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ036-
     037-056-057.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ050>053-055-501>506.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR WVZ050>053-055-501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540-541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530-531-535-
     536-538-539-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL/HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...BJL/MSE
MARINE...HTS/MSE
HYDROLOGY...JE




000
FXUS61 KLWX 051950
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
250 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING TO THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS PRVSLY PROGGED...BAND OF HVY SNW HAS DROPPED ACRS CENTRL VA
AND SRN MD. THIS IS THE AREA WHERE MID-LVL FGEN FORCING RESIDES.
WHEN THE FORCING AND LIFT COMBINED OVER CENTRAL MD/ERN WVA/NRN VA
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES/HR WERE OBSRVD. BASED ON OBS SINCE
18Z...BELIEVE THE SAME OCCURRING OVER CENTRL VA ATTM. THAT WL
QUICKLY MAKE UP FOR THE LACK OF SNOW DURING THE MRNG. MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO SNOW TTL MAP. END RESULT A WIDESPREAD 4-8
INCHES...W/ A CPL BANDS UP TO 10 INCHES PSBL.

ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL WIND DOWN DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS CNVGNC SLIDES SE OF THE AREA. HWVR...RRQ OF UPR JET WL
ARRIVE AS MID- LVL FORCING DEPARTS. THAT SUGGESTS THAT FLURRIES
MAY LINGER INTO THE EVNG. STILL HV ACCUM SNOW /FRACTION OF AN
INCH/ INTO ELY EVNG ACRS SRN MD. NO ADDTL SNOWFALL XPCTD ELSW.

MEAN LYR RH DROPS RAPIDLY OVNGT...WHICH SHUD ALLOW CLDS TO SCATTER
OUT. MEANWHILE THE DRY ARCTIC AMS WL CONT TO STREAM IN. KEPT A
MIN-T FCST THAT FOCUSED ON A MOS MEAN...LWRG BY A DEGF OR TWO FOR
THE FRESH SNOW AND CLRG SKIES. WHILE WINDS SHUD DIMINISH OVNGT...
DONT BELIEVE THEY WL OUTRIGHT DCPL. THAT COMBO PLACES OUTLYING
AREA OF CWFA...FM DC/BALT NWRN BURBS TO BLURDG WWD...AT THE
THRESHOLD FOR WIND CHILL ADVY. OPTED IN TO ALERT SNOW STORM
RECOVERY EFFORTS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIPRES BLDS INTO CWFA FRIDAY. NRN STREAM S/WV ENERGY WL OVERRIDE
RDG...WHICH WL ERASE THE SUNNY START TO THE DAY. XPCT MOCLDY TO
PREVAIL DURING THE AFTN-EVE HRS.

THE THERMAL TROF WL BE CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE DAY. AS A
RESULT...FRI WL BE A COOLER DAY W/ MAXT IN THE MID-UPR 20S AND
MIN-T 10-15F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WHILE SOME WARMING BEGINS
SATURDAY...SNOW COVER WILL LIKELY TEMPER THIS TREND INITIALLY. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S NORTH AND
50S SOUTH.

LIGHT LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND
CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. RAISED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SUNDAY WILL FINALLY BE ABOVE FREEZING...EXCEPT IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WHERE UPPER 20S WILL BE MORE COMMON. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS REMAINING AOA FREEZING THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALSO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL. KEPT TUESDAY A LITTLE
COOLER THAN THE REST OF THE WEEK DUE TO POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER FROM
APPROACHING SYSTEM. STILL UNCLEAR IF THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT OUR
AREA OR SKIRT TO OUR SOUTH...FOR NOW LEFT SCHC POPS IN OUR FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE TERMINALS. IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED IN SNOWFALL THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE TERMINALS. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5
TO 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS HV YET TO REALLY DVLP TDA...ASIDE FM AN OCNL GUST.
STILL BELIEVE POTL EXISTS AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN AND PCPN MOVES
OUT. IN FACT...THE LACK OF PCPN MAY FACILITATE FULL MIXING. HV SCA
CONDS FOR ALL WATERS TNGT...AND ADJUSTED CONTINUATION INTO FRI
MRNG FOR THE BAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE WEEKEND...SO NOT EXPECTING
ANY MARINE CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ICE-INDUCED STREAM RISES HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. MANY OF THE STREAMS HAVE NOW CRESTED AND
ARE FALLING. IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT THERE IS AN ICE JAM ON THE
LOST/CACAPON RIVER IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA ABOVE GREAT CACAPON THAT
HAS NOT YET BROKEN...BUT WITH COLD AIR NOW BACK IN PLACE...IT MAY
NOT UNTIL TEMPERATURES WARM AGAIN...KEEPING RISES GRADUAL FOR NOW.

ALSO APPEARS THERE MAY BE SOME SORT OF ICE EFFECT ON GOOSE CREEK
BETWEEN EVERGREEN MILLS AND LANSDOWNE. THE CURRENT STAGE/FLOW AT THE
EVERGREEN MILLS GAUGE IS HIGHER THAN WOULD BE EXPECTED BASED ON
UPSTREAM SITES...AND STILL RISING. STILL A FEW FEET BELOW FLOOD
STAGE AT THIS TIME.

SINCE THERE ARE NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EVENTS AFTER TODAY FOR
AT LEAST A WEEK...THE MELT OF THE NEWLY-FALLEN SNOW SHOULD BE
GRADUAL. SO THE FLOOD THREAT FROM THAT SHOULD BE MINIMAL BUT WILL BE
MONITORED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ003>006-011-501>508.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR MDZ003>006-501>507.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ013-
     014-016-018.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ017.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ025>031-040-501-503>508.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR VAZ025>031-040-501-503>508.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ038-
     039-050>055-502.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ036-
     037-056-057.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ050>053-055-501>506.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR WVZ050>053-055-501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540-541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530-531-535-
     536-538-539-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL/HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...BJL/MSE
MARINE...HTS/MSE
HYDROLOGY...JE




000
FXUS61 KLWX 051950
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
250 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING TO THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS PRVSLY PROGGED...BAND OF HVY SNW HAS DROPPED ACRS CENTRL VA
AND SRN MD. THIS IS THE AREA WHERE MID-LVL FGEN FORCING RESIDES.
WHEN THE FORCING AND LIFT COMBINED OVER CENTRAL MD/ERN WVA/NRN VA
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES/HR WERE OBSRVD. BASED ON OBS SINCE
18Z...BELIEVE THE SAME OCCURRING OVER CENTRL VA ATTM. THAT WL
QUICKLY MAKE UP FOR THE LACK OF SNOW DURING THE MRNG. MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO SNOW TTL MAP. END RESULT A WIDESPREAD 4-8
INCHES...W/ A CPL BANDS UP TO 10 INCHES PSBL.

ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL WIND DOWN DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS CNVGNC SLIDES SE OF THE AREA. HWVR...RRQ OF UPR JET WL
ARRIVE AS MID- LVL FORCING DEPARTS. THAT SUGGESTS THAT FLURRIES
MAY LINGER INTO THE EVNG. STILL HV ACCUM SNOW /FRACTION OF AN
INCH/ INTO ELY EVNG ACRS SRN MD. NO ADDTL SNOWFALL XPCTD ELSW.

MEAN LYR RH DROPS RAPIDLY OVNGT...WHICH SHUD ALLOW CLDS TO SCATTER
OUT. MEANWHILE THE DRY ARCTIC AMS WL CONT TO STREAM IN. KEPT A
MIN-T FCST THAT FOCUSED ON A MOS MEAN...LWRG BY A DEGF OR TWO FOR
THE FRESH SNOW AND CLRG SKIES. WHILE WINDS SHUD DIMINISH OVNGT...
DONT BELIEVE THEY WL OUTRIGHT DCPL. THAT COMBO PLACES OUTLYING
AREA OF CWFA...FM DC/BALT NWRN BURBS TO BLURDG WWD...AT THE
THRESHOLD FOR WIND CHILL ADVY. OPTED IN TO ALERT SNOW STORM
RECOVERY EFFORTS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIPRES BLDS INTO CWFA FRIDAY. NRN STREAM S/WV ENERGY WL OVERRIDE
RDG...WHICH WL ERASE THE SUNNY START TO THE DAY. XPCT MOCLDY TO
PREVAIL DURING THE AFTN-EVE HRS.

THE THERMAL TROF WL BE CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE DAY. AS A
RESULT...FRI WL BE A COOLER DAY W/ MAXT IN THE MID-UPR 20S AND
MIN-T 10-15F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WHILE SOME WARMING BEGINS
SATURDAY...SNOW COVER WILL LIKELY TEMPER THIS TREND INITIALLY. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S NORTH AND
50S SOUTH.

LIGHT LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND
CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. RAISED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SUNDAY WILL FINALLY BE ABOVE FREEZING...EXCEPT IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WHERE UPPER 20S WILL BE MORE COMMON. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS REMAINING AOA FREEZING THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALSO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL. KEPT TUESDAY A LITTLE
COOLER THAN THE REST OF THE WEEK DUE TO POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER FROM
APPROACHING SYSTEM. STILL UNCLEAR IF THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT OUR
AREA OR SKIRT TO OUR SOUTH...FOR NOW LEFT SCHC POPS IN OUR FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE TERMINALS. IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED IN SNOWFALL THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE TERMINALS. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5
TO 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS HV YET TO REALLY DVLP TDA...ASIDE FM AN OCNL GUST.
STILL BELIEVE POTL EXISTS AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN AND PCPN MOVES
OUT. IN FACT...THE LACK OF PCPN MAY FACILITATE FULL MIXING. HV SCA
CONDS FOR ALL WATERS TNGT...AND ADJUSTED CONTINUATION INTO FRI
MRNG FOR THE BAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE WEEKEND...SO NOT EXPECTING
ANY MARINE CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ICE-INDUCED STREAM RISES HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. MANY OF THE STREAMS HAVE NOW CRESTED AND
ARE FALLING. IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT THERE IS AN ICE JAM ON THE
LOST/CACAPON RIVER IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA ABOVE GREAT CACAPON THAT
HAS NOT YET BROKEN...BUT WITH COLD AIR NOW BACK IN PLACE...IT MAY
NOT UNTIL TEMPERATURES WARM AGAIN...KEEPING RISES GRADUAL FOR NOW.

ALSO APPEARS THERE MAY BE SOME SORT OF ICE EFFECT ON GOOSE CREEK
BETWEEN EVERGREEN MILLS AND LANSDOWNE. THE CURRENT STAGE/FLOW AT THE
EVERGREEN MILLS GAUGE IS HIGHER THAN WOULD BE EXPECTED BASED ON
UPSTREAM SITES...AND STILL RISING. STILL A FEW FEET BELOW FLOOD
STAGE AT THIS TIME.

SINCE THERE ARE NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EVENTS AFTER TODAY FOR
AT LEAST A WEEK...THE MELT OF THE NEWLY-FALLEN SNOW SHOULD BE
GRADUAL. SO THE FLOOD THREAT FROM THAT SHOULD BE MINIMAL BUT WILL BE
MONITORED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ003>006-011-501>508.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR MDZ003>006-501>507.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ013-
     014-016-018.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ017.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ025>031-040-501-503>508.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR VAZ025>031-040-501-503>508.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ038-
     039-050>055-502.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ036-
     037-056-057.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ050>053-055-501>506.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR WVZ050>053-055-501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540-541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530-531-535-
     536-538-539-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL/HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...BJL/MSE
MARINE...HTS/MSE
HYDROLOGY...JE




000
FXUS61 KLWX 051950
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
250 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING TO THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS PRVSLY PROGGED...BAND OF HVY SNW HAS DROPPED ACRS CENTRL VA
AND SRN MD. THIS IS THE AREA WHERE MID-LVL FGEN FORCING RESIDES.
WHEN THE FORCING AND LIFT COMBINED OVER CENTRAL MD/ERN WVA/NRN VA
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES/HR WERE OBSRVD. BASED ON OBS SINCE
18Z...BELIEVE THE SAME OCCURRING OVER CENTRL VA ATTM. THAT WL
QUICKLY MAKE UP FOR THE LACK OF SNOW DURING THE MRNG. MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO SNOW TTL MAP. END RESULT A WIDESPREAD 4-8
INCHES...W/ A CPL BANDS UP TO 10 INCHES PSBL.

ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL WIND DOWN DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS CNVGNC SLIDES SE OF THE AREA. HWVR...RRQ OF UPR JET WL
ARRIVE AS MID- LVL FORCING DEPARTS. THAT SUGGESTS THAT FLURRIES
MAY LINGER INTO THE EVNG. STILL HV ACCUM SNOW /FRACTION OF AN
INCH/ INTO ELY EVNG ACRS SRN MD. NO ADDTL SNOWFALL XPCTD ELSW.

MEAN LYR RH DROPS RAPIDLY OVNGT...WHICH SHUD ALLOW CLDS TO SCATTER
OUT. MEANWHILE THE DRY ARCTIC AMS WL CONT TO STREAM IN. KEPT A
MIN-T FCST THAT FOCUSED ON A MOS MEAN...LWRG BY A DEGF OR TWO FOR
THE FRESH SNOW AND CLRG SKIES. WHILE WINDS SHUD DIMINISH OVNGT...
DONT BELIEVE THEY WL OUTRIGHT DCPL. THAT COMBO PLACES OUTLYING
AREA OF CWFA...FM DC/BALT NWRN BURBS TO BLURDG WWD...AT THE
THRESHOLD FOR WIND CHILL ADVY. OPTED IN TO ALERT SNOW STORM
RECOVERY EFFORTS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIPRES BLDS INTO CWFA FRIDAY. NRN STREAM S/WV ENERGY WL OVERRIDE
RDG...WHICH WL ERASE THE SUNNY START TO THE DAY. XPCT MOCLDY TO
PREVAIL DURING THE AFTN-EVE HRS.

THE THERMAL TROF WL BE CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE DAY. AS A
RESULT...FRI WL BE A COOLER DAY W/ MAXT IN THE MID-UPR 20S AND
MIN-T 10-15F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WHILE SOME WARMING BEGINS
SATURDAY...SNOW COVER WILL LIKELY TEMPER THIS TREND INITIALLY. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S NORTH AND
50S SOUTH.

LIGHT LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND
CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. RAISED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SUNDAY WILL FINALLY BE ABOVE FREEZING...EXCEPT IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WHERE UPPER 20S WILL BE MORE COMMON. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS REMAINING AOA FREEZING THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALSO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL. KEPT TUESDAY A LITTLE
COOLER THAN THE REST OF THE WEEK DUE TO POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER FROM
APPROACHING SYSTEM. STILL UNCLEAR IF THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT OUR
AREA OR SKIRT TO OUR SOUTH...FOR NOW LEFT SCHC POPS IN OUR FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE TERMINALS. IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED IN SNOWFALL THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE TERMINALS. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5
TO 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS HV YET TO REALLY DVLP TDA...ASIDE FM AN OCNL GUST.
STILL BELIEVE POTL EXISTS AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN AND PCPN MOVES
OUT. IN FACT...THE LACK OF PCPN MAY FACILITATE FULL MIXING. HV SCA
CONDS FOR ALL WATERS TNGT...AND ADJUSTED CONTINUATION INTO FRI
MRNG FOR THE BAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE WEEKEND...SO NOT EXPECTING
ANY MARINE CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ICE-INDUCED STREAM RISES HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. MANY OF THE STREAMS HAVE NOW CRESTED AND
ARE FALLING. IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT THERE IS AN ICE JAM ON THE
LOST/CACAPON RIVER IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA ABOVE GREAT CACAPON THAT
HAS NOT YET BROKEN...BUT WITH COLD AIR NOW BACK IN PLACE...IT MAY
NOT UNTIL TEMPERATURES WARM AGAIN...KEEPING RISES GRADUAL FOR NOW.

ALSO APPEARS THERE MAY BE SOME SORT OF ICE EFFECT ON GOOSE CREEK
BETWEEN EVERGREEN MILLS AND LANSDOWNE. THE CURRENT STAGE/FLOW AT THE
EVERGREEN MILLS GAUGE IS HIGHER THAN WOULD BE EXPECTED BASED ON
UPSTREAM SITES...AND STILL RISING. STILL A FEW FEET BELOW FLOOD
STAGE AT THIS TIME.

SINCE THERE ARE NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EVENTS AFTER TODAY FOR
AT LEAST A WEEK...THE MELT OF THE NEWLY-FALLEN SNOW SHOULD BE
GRADUAL. SO THE FLOOD THREAT FROM THAT SHOULD BE MINIMAL BUT WILL BE
MONITORED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ003>006-011-501>508.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR MDZ003>006-501>507.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ013-
     014-016-018.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ017.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ025>031-040-501-503>508.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR VAZ025>031-040-501-503>508.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ038-
     039-050>055-502.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ036-
     037-056-057.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ050>053-055-501>506.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR WVZ050>053-055-501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540-541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530-531-535-
     536-538-539-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL/HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...BJL/MSE
MARINE...HTS/MSE
HYDROLOGY...JE




000
FXUS61 KLWX 051950
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
250 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING TO THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS PRVSLY PROGGED...BAND OF HVY SNW HAS DROPPED ACRS CENTRL VA
AND SRN MD. THIS IS THE AREA WHERE MID-LVL FGEN FORCING RESIDES.
WHEN THE FORCING AND LIFT COMBINED OVER CENTRAL MD/ERN WVA/NRN VA
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES/HR WERE OBSRVD. BASED ON OBS SINCE
18Z...BELIEVE THE SAME OCCURRING OVER CENTRL VA ATTM. THAT WL
QUICKLY MAKE UP FOR THE LACK OF SNOW DURING THE MRNG. MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO SNOW TTL MAP. END RESULT A WIDESPREAD 4-8
INCHES...W/ A CPL BANDS UP TO 10 INCHES PSBL.

ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL WIND DOWN DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS CNVGNC SLIDES SE OF THE AREA. HWVR...RRQ OF UPR JET WL
ARRIVE AS MID- LVL FORCING DEPARTS. THAT SUGGESTS THAT FLURRIES
MAY LINGER INTO THE EVNG. STILL HV ACCUM SNOW /FRACTION OF AN
INCH/ INTO ELY EVNG ACRS SRN MD. NO ADDTL SNOWFALL XPCTD ELSW.

MEAN LYR RH DROPS RAPIDLY OVNGT...WHICH SHUD ALLOW CLDS TO SCATTER
OUT. MEANWHILE THE DRY ARCTIC AMS WL CONT TO STREAM IN. KEPT A
MIN-T FCST THAT FOCUSED ON A MOS MEAN...LWRG BY A DEGF OR TWO FOR
THE FRESH SNOW AND CLRG SKIES. WHILE WINDS SHUD DIMINISH OVNGT...
DONT BELIEVE THEY WL OUTRIGHT DCPL. THAT COMBO PLACES OUTLYING
AREA OF CWFA...FM DC/BALT NWRN BURBS TO BLURDG WWD...AT THE
THRESHOLD FOR WIND CHILL ADVY. OPTED IN TO ALERT SNOW STORM
RECOVERY EFFORTS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIPRES BLDS INTO CWFA FRIDAY. NRN STREAM S/WV ENERGY WL OVERRIDE
RDG...WHICH WL ERASE THE SUNNY START TO THE DAY. XPCT MOCLDY TO
PREVAIL DURING THE AFTN-EVE HRS.

THE THERMAL TROF WL BE CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE DAY. AS A
RESULT...FRI WL BE A COOLER DAY W/ MAXT IN THE MID-UPR 20S AND
MIN-T 10-15F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WHILE SOME WARMING BEGINS
SATURDAY...SNOW COVER WILL LIKELY TEMPER THIS TREND INITIALLY. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S NORTH AND
50S SOUTH.

LIGHT LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND
CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. RAISED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SUNDAY WILL FINALLY BE ABOVE FREEZING...EXCEPT IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WHERE UPPER 20S WILL BE MORE COMMON. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS REMAINING AOA FREEZING THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALSO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL. KEPT TUESDAY A LITTLE
COOLER THAN THE REST OF THE WEEK DUE TO POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER FROM
APPROACHING SYSTEM. STILL UNCLEAR IF THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT OUR
AREA OR SKIRT TO OUR SOUTH...FOR NOW LEFT SCHC POPS IN OUR FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE TERMINALS. IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED IN SNOWFALL THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE TERMINALS. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5
TO 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS HV YET TO REALLY DVLP TDA...ASIDE FM AN OCNL GUST.
STILL BELIEVE POTL EXISTS AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN AND PCPN MOVES
OUT. IN FACT...THE LACK OF PCPN MAY FACILITATE FULL MIXING. HV SCA
CONDS FOR ALL WATERS TNGT...AND ADJUSTED CONTINUATION INTO FRI
MRNG FOR THE BAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE WEEKEND...SO NOT EXPECTING
ANY MARINE CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ICE-INDUCED STREAM RISES HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. MANY OF THE STREAMS HAVE NOW CRESTED AND
ARE FALLING. IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT THERE IS AN ICE JAM ON THE
LOST/CACAPON RIVER IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA ABOVE GREAT CACAPON THAT
HAS NOT YET BROKEN...BUT WITH COLD AIR NOW BACK IN PLACE...IT MAY
NOT UNTIL TEMPERATURES WARM AGAIN...KEEPING RISES GRADUAL FOR NOW.

ALSO APPEARS THERE MAY BE SOME SORT OF ICE EFFECT ON GOOSE CREEK
BETWEEN EVERGREEN MILLS AND LANSDOWNE. THE CURRENT STAGE/FLOW AT THE
EVERGREEN MILLS GAUGE IS HIGHER THAN WOULD BE EXPECTED BASED ON
UPSTREAM SITES...AND STILL RISING. STILL A FEW FEET BELOW FLOOD
STAGE AT THIS TIME.

SINCE THERE ARE NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EVENTS AFTER TODAY FOR
AT LEAST A WEEK...THE MELT OF THE NEWLY-FALLEN SNOW SHOULD BE
GRADUAL. SO THE FLOOD THREAT FROM THAT SHOULD BE MINIMAL BUT WILL BE
MONITORED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ003>006-011-501>508.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR MDZ003>006-501>507.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ013-
     014-016-018.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ017.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ025>031-040-501-503>508.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR VAZ025>031-040-501-503>508.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ038-
     039-050>055-502.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ036-
     037-056-057.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ050>053-055-501>506.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR WVZ050>053-055-501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540-541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530-531-535-
     536-538-539-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL/HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...BJL/MSE
MARINE...HTS/MSE
HYDROLOGY...JE




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 051855
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
155 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTH CAROLINA TODAY...WITH A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER TO THE
AREA...FOLLOWED BY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY. GRADUALLY
MODERATING...MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
P-TYPE TRANSITION PERIOD HAS BEGUN GENERALLY AS EXPECTED OVER THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE USED THE NAM12 AND HRRR,
WHICH HAS PERFORMED QUITE WELL WITH SFC TEMPS, AND NAM HAS BEEN
GREAT WITH TOP-DOWN PROCEDURES IN PINPOINTING SLEET/SNOW ZONES.
SNOW JUST NORTH OF THE AKQ CWA WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL, AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT NOTED, TRENDS
CONTINUE TO DICTATE A MINOR SLOWDOWN IN CHANGEOVER TIMING, WHICH
HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN DIGITAL FORECAST. SFC LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT
E-NE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTN. MEANWHILE, THE RIDGE HOLDING
STRONG WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A LONGER PERIOD OF `WARMER` MID-LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SLEET...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIC METRO AREA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VA
FOR THE MID TO LATE AFTN HOURS. AS A RESULT...SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION HAS BEEN TRIMMED BACK ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
AREA IN FAVOR OF MORE SLEET...WHILE SNOW TOTALS HAVE BEEN BUMPED
UP SLIGHTLY IN OUR WINTER STORM WARNING AREA. FINALLY, ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST, SNOW ACCUMULATION (AGAIN, PRIMARILY FOR SLEET) HAS BEEN
INCREASED WHERE MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY, WHILE SLEET REMAINS PREDOMINATE ISSUE, A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN HAS BEEN INTRODUCED ALONG THE HIGHWAY 58 CORRIDOR
INTO SE VA AND INTERIOR NE NC FOR THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

CRITICAL H85-7 THICKNESS VALUES (SUB 1540M) ARE NOT REALIZED
UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT OVER NRN HALF OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME THE STRONGEST UVM WILL BE EXITING THE
COAST. OVERALL, UTILIZING ROEBBER SLR FORECASTING TOOL ALONG WITH
LOCAL THICKNESS CHART, FORECAST SLR VALUES WILL BE QUITE LOW FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY (PERHAPS AS LOW AS 4:1-8:1). THIS MAKES SENSE
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED ONGOING PERIOD OF SLEET (WHICH WILL EAT
INTO SNOWFALL TOTALS). FURTHER, MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL BE
`WARM` DURING THE STRONGEST FORCING THROUGH THE MID-AFTERNOON
HOURS. BASED ON ALL OF THE ABOVE, HAVE CONTINUED WITH A STRIPE OF
3-5" OF WET SNOW/SLEET ALONG A LINE FROM CUMBERLAND, VA TO
TAPPAHANNOCK AND SALISBURY, MD. THIS IS BORDERED BY A BAND OF 2-3"
FOR OTHER PORTIONS OF THE NW PIEDMONT...NRN NECK...NORTHERN RIC
SUBURBS AND REMAINDER OF THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE. CURRENTLY
1-2" OF SLEET/SNOW IS FORECAST FROM THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
RIC METRO /TRI-CITIES DOWN THROUGH HAMPTON ROADS...WITH AROUND 1"
OF SLEET/SNOW ALONG THE HIGHWAY 58 CORRIDOR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VA
INTO THE PIEDMONT.

WINTRY PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS EVENING...AS TOP DOWN DRYING
ENSUES W/DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE NW DURING THE LATE
EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ADVISORIES WILL RUN THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...WITH THE SE PORTION LINGERING THROUGH 3 AM WHERE DRIER
AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE/FAIR WEATHER TO PREVAIL DURING THE SHORT TERM.

SHORTWAVE EXITS THE NE COAST FRI MORNING WITH CONFLUENCE ALOFT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW STRONG 1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE TO CENTER OVER THE REGION FRI. COLD FRONT LOCATES
OFFSHORE...EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF. BEST MOISTURE GETS
SHUNTED OFFSHORE IN INCREASING WLY FLOW ALOFT. THE RESULT WILL BE
DRY CONDITIONS...BUT WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MODELS
CONSENSUS ATTEMPTS TO SHOW HIGHS IN THE 25-30 RANGE FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...H85 TEMPS ~-8C AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN
THE LOW-MID 30S...WITH POSSIBLY UPPER 20S OVER THE INTERIOR MD ERN
SHORE. WILL SIDE WITH THE LATER REASONING GIVEN THAT WE ARE NOW
INTO MARCH. THE NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION FRI
NIGHT...RESULTING IN LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. COLD
FRI NIGHT WITH LOW GENERALLY MID TEENS TO AROUND 20...WITH 10-15
POSSIBLE FROM INTERIOR S-CENTRAL VA TO THE ERN SHORE. ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPS SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. SWLY RETURN
FLOW COMMENCES...RESULTING IN MODERATING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND
TEMPS. THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND SUN...BUT
GUIDANCE RUNNING IN THE MID-UPPER 40S. TRENDED TOWARD
THICKNESSES...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW
TO MID 40S NEAR THE COAST...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GOING CLOSE TO THE 12Z GFS/CMC IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WILL MAINTAIN
DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU AT LEAST MON NGT AT THIS TIME..AS HI PRES
WILL BE OVR THE AREA. THERE IS THEN A HINT OF LO PRES MOVNG NE OUT
OF THE GULF AND ACRS THE REGION TUE THRU WED. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE
SLGT CHC OF RAIN DURING THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE RDGS THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR
20S TO UPR 30S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 40S TO UPR
50S...MAYBE INTO THE 60S ON WED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MIXTURE OF SLEET/SNOW NW OF KRIC WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WINTERY MIX WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW FM NW TO NE DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE DAY. IFR/LIFR OVER ALL TAF SITES WITH THE PCPN THROUGH
TONIGHT. TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED
AT RIC AND SBY WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES OR LESS AT THE SE TAF SITES.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FM THE N MUCH OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...PCPN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND
VFR CONDS RETURN. IMPROVING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRNT IS LOCATED NR THE NC/VA BORDER ERLY THIS MORNG...AND
WILL SLOWLY SLIDE S THRU MIDDAY. N WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER ALL
WTRS...INCREASING TO SCA THRESHOLDS BY THE MIDDAY/AFTN HRS. ALSO
HOISTED A GALE WARNG FOR THE SRN CSTL WTRS WHERE FREQUENT GUSTS UP
TO 35 KT ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENG AND OVRNGT. WAVES OVER THE CHES BAY
WILL BLD TO 3-5 FT...WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS BLDNG TO 6-10 FT. ALL
MARINE HEADLINES END DURING THE DAY FRI AS WINDS/WAVES/SEAS
DECREASE AS HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. BENIGN MARINE CONDS CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE HI REMAINING IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ012>017-
     030>032-102.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     VAZ060>062-065>073-077>094-099-100.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ048-049-
     063-064-074>076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ095>098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ632>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630-631-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...SAM/TMG
AVIATION...MAS/DAP
MARINE...MAS







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 051855
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
155 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTH CAROLINA TODAY...WITH A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER TO THE
AREA...FOLLOWED BY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY. GRADUALLY
MODERATING...MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
P-TYPE TRANSITION PERIOD HAS BEGUN GENERALLY AS EXPECTED OVER THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE USED THE NAM12 AND HRRR,
WHICH HAS PERFORMED QUITE WELL WITH SFC TEMPS, AND NAM HAS BEEN
GREAT WITH TOP-DOWN PROCEDURES IN PINPOINTING SLEET/SNOW ZONES.
SNOW JUST NORTH OF THE AKQ CWA WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL, AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT NOTED, TRENDS
CONTINUE TO DICTATE A MINOR SLOWDOWN IN CHANGEOVER TIMING, WHICH
HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN DIGITAL FORECAST. SFC LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT
E-NE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTN. MEANWHILE, THE RIDGE HOLDING
STRONG WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A LONGER PERIOD OF `WARMER` MID-LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SLEET...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIC METRO AREA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VA
FOR THE MID TO LATE AFTN HOURS. AS A RESULT...SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION HAS BEEN TRIMMED BACK ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
AREA IN FAVOR OF MORE SLEET...WHILE SNOW TOTALS HAVE BEEN BUMPED
UP SLIGHTLY IN OUR WINTER STORM WARNING AREA. FINALLY, ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST, SNOW ACCUMULATION (AGAIN, PRIMARILY FOR SLEET) HAS BEEN
INCREASED WHERE MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY, WHILE SLEET REMAINS PREDOMINATE ISSUE, A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN HAS BEEN INTRODUCED ALONG THE HIGHWAY 58 CORRIDOR
INTO SE VA AND INTERIOR NE NC FOR THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

CRITICAL H85-7 THICKNESS VALUES (SUB 1540M) ARE NOT REALIZED
UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT OVER NRN HALF OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME THE STRONGEST UVM WILL BE EXITING THE
COAST. OVERALL, UTILIZING ROEBBER SLR FORECASTING TOOL ALONG WITH
LOCAL THICKNESS CHART, FORECAST SLR VALUES WILL BE QUITE LOW FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY (PERHAPS AS LOW AS 4:1-8:1). THIS MAKES SENSE
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED ONGOING PERIOD OF SLEET (WHICH WILL EAT
INTO SNOWFALL TOTALS). FURTHER, MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL BE
`WARM` DURING THE STRONGEST FORCING THROUGH THE MID-AFTERNOON
HOURS. BASED ON ALL OF THE ABOVE, HAVE CONTINUED WITH A STRIPE OF
3-5" OF WET SNOW/SLEET ALONG A LINE FROM CUMBERLAND, VA TO
TAPPAHANNOCK AND SALISBURY, MD. THIS IS BORDERED BY A BAND OF 2-3"
FOR OTHER PORTIONS OF THE NW PIEDMONT...NRN NECK...NORTHERN RIC
SUBURBS AND REMAINDER OF THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE. CURRENTLY
1-2" OF SLEET/SNOW IS FORECAST FROM THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
RIC METRO /TRI-CITIES DOWN THROUGH HAMPTON ROADS...WITH AROUND 1"
OF SLEET/SNOW ALONG THE HIGHWAY 58 CORRIDOR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VA
INTO THE PIEDMONT.

WINTRY PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS EVENING...AS TOP DOWN DRYING
ENSUES W/DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE NW DURING THE LATE
EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ADVISORIES WILL RUN THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...WITH THE SE PORTION LINGERING THROUGH 3 AM WHERE DRIER
AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE/FAIR WEATHER TO PREVAIL DURING THE SHORT TERM.

SHORTWAVE EXITS THE NE COAST FRI MORNING WITH CONFLUENCE ALOFT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW STRONG 1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE TO CENTER OVER THE REGION FRI. COLD FRONT LOCATES
OFFSHORE...EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF. BEST MOISTURE GETS
SHUNTED OFFSHORE IN INCREASING WLY FLOW ALOFT. THE RESULT WILL BE
DRY CONDITIONS...BUT WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MODELS
CONSENSUS ATTEMPTS TO SHOW HIGHS IN THE 25-30 RANGE FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...H85 TEMPS ~-8C AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN
THE LOW-MID 30S...WITH POSSIBLY UPPER 20S OVER THE INTERIOR MD ERN
SHORE. WILL SIDE WITH THE LATER REASONING GIVEN THAT WE ARE NOW
INTO MARCH. THE NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION FRI
NIGHT...RESULTING IN LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. COLD
FRI NIGHT WITH LOW GENERALLY MID TEENS TO AROUND 20...WITH 10-15
POSSIBLE FROM INTERIOR S-CENTRAL VA TO THE ERN SHORE. ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPS SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. SWLY RETURN
FLOW COMMENCES...RESULTING IN MODERATING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND
TEMPS. THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND SUN...BUT
GUIDANCE RUNNING IN THE MID-UPPER 40S. TRENDED TOWARD
THICKNESSES...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW
TO MID 40S NEAR THE COAST...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GOING CLOSE TO THE 12Z GFS/CMC IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WILL MAINTAIN
DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU AT LEAST MON NGT AT THIS TIME..AS HI PRES
WILL BE OVR THE AREA. THERE IS THEN A HINT OF LO PRES MOVNG NE OUT
OF THE GULF AND ACRS THE REGION TUE THRU WED. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE
SLGT CHC OF RAIN DURING THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE RDGS THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR
20S TO UPR 30S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 40S TO UPR
50S...MAYBE INTO THE 60S ON WED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MIXTURE OF SLEET/SNOW NW OF KRIC WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WINTERY MIX WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW FM NW TO NE DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE DAY. IFR/LIFR OVER ALL TAF SITES WITH THE PCPN THROUGH
TONIGHT. TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED
AT RIC AND SBY WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES OR LESS AT THE SE TAF SITES.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FM THE N MUCH OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...PCPN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND
VFR CONDS RETURN. IMPROVING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRNT IS LOCATED NR THE NC/VA BORDER ERLY THIS MORNG...AND
WILL SLOWLY SLIDE S THRU MIDDAY. N WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER ALL
WTRS...INCREASING TO SCA THRESHOLDS BY THE MIDDAY/AFTN HRS. ALSO
HOISTED A GALE WARNG FOR THE SRN CSTL WTRS WHERE FREQUENT GUSTS UP
TO 35 KT ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENG AND OVRNGT. WAVES OVER THE CHES BAY
WILL BLD TO 3-5 FT...WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS BLDNG TO 6-10 FT. ALL
MARINE HEADLINES END DURING THE DAY FRI AS WINDS/WAVES/SEAS
DECREASE AS HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. BENIGN MARINE CONDS CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE HI REMAINING IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ012>017-
     030>032-102.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     VAZ060>062-065>073-077>094-099-100.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ048-049-
     063-064-074>076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ095>098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ632>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630-631-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...SAM/TMG
AVIATION...MAS/DAP
MARINE...MAS






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 051855
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
155 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTH CAROLINA TODAY...WITH A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER TO THE
AREA...FOLLOWED BY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY. GRADUALLY
MODERATING...MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
P-TYPE TRANSITION PERIOD HAS BEGUN GENERALLY AS EXPECTED OVER THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE USED THE NAM12 AND HRRR,
WHICH HAS PERFORMED QUITE WELL WITH SFC TEMPS, AND NAM HAS BEEN
GREAT WITH TOP-DOWN PROCEDURES IN PINPOINTING SLEET/SNOW ZONES.
SNOW JUST NORTH OF THE AKQ CWA WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL, AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT NOTED, TRENDS
CONTINUE TO DICTATE A MINOR SLOWDOWN IN CHANGEOVER TIMING, WHICH
HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN DIGITAL FORECAST. SFC LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT
E-NE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTN. MEANWHILE, THE RIDGE HOLDING
STRONG WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A LONGER PERIOD OF `WARMER` MID-LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SLEET...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIC METRO AREA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VA
FOR THE MID TO LATE AFTN HOURS. AS A RESULT...SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION HAS BEEN TRIMMED BACK ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
AREA IN FAVOR OF MORE SLEET...WHILE SNOW TOTALS HAVE BEEN BUMPED
UP SLIGHTLY IN OUR WINTER STORM WARNING AREA. FINALLY, ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST, SNOW ACCUMULATION (AGAIN, PRIMARILY FOR SLEET) HAS BEEN
INCREASED WHERE MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY, WHILE SLEET REMAINS PREDOMINATE ISSUE, A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN HAS BEEN INTRODUCED ALONG THE HIGHWAY 58 CORRIDOR
INTO SE VA AND INTERIOR NE NC FOR THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

CRITICAL H85-7 THICKNESS VALUES (SUB 1540M) ARE NOT REALIZED
UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT OVER NRN HALF OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME THE STRONGEST UVM WILL BE EXITING THE
COAST. OVERALL, UTILIZING ROEBBER SLR FORECASTING TOOL ALONG WITH
LOCAL THICKNESS CHART, FORECAST SLR VALUES WILL BE QUITE LOW FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY (PERHAPS AS LOW AS 4:1-8:1). THIS MAKES SENSE
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED ONGOING PERIOD OF SLEET (WHICH WILL EAT
INTO SNOWFALL TOTALS). FURTHER, MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL BE
`WARM` DURING THE STRONGEST FORCING THROUGH THE MID-AFTERNOON
HOURS. BASED ON ALL OF THE ABOVE, HAVE CONTINUED WITH A STRIPE OF
3-5" OF WET SNOW/SLEET ALONG A LINE FROM CUMBERLAND, VA TO
TAPPAHANNOCK AND SALISBURY, MD. THIS IS BORDERED BY A BAND OF 2-3"
FOR OTHER PORTIONS OF THE NW PIEDMONT...NRN NECK...NORTHERN RIC
SUBURBS AND REMAINDER OF THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE. CURRENTLY
1-2" OF SLEET/SNOW IS FORECAST FROM THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
RIC METRO /TRI-CITIES DOWN THROUGH HAMPTON ROADS...WITH AROUND 1"
OF SLEET/SNOW ALONG THE HIGHWAY 58 CORRIDOR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VA
INTO THE PIEDMONT.

WINTRY PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS EVENING...AS TOP DOWN DRYING
ENSUES W/DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE NW DURING THE LATE
EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ADVISORIES WILL RUN THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...WITH THE SE PORTION LINGERING THROUGH 3 AM WHERE DRIER
AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE/FAIR WEATHER TO PREVAIL DURING THE SHORT TERM.

SHORTWAVE EXITS THE NE COAST FRI MORNING WITH CONFLUENCE ALOFT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW STRONG 1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE TO CENTER OVER THE REGION FRI. COLD FRONT LOCATES
OFFSHORE...EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF. BEST MOISTURE GETS
SHUNTED OFFSHORE IN INCREASING WLY FLOW ALOFT. THE RESULT WILL BE
DRY CONDITIONS...BUT WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MODELS
CONSENSUS ATTEMPTS TO SHOW HIGHS IN THE 25-30 RANGE FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...H85 TEMPS ~-8C AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN
THE LOW-MID 30S...WITH POSSIBLY UPPER 20S OVER THE INTERIOR MD ERN
SHORE. WILL SIDE WITH THE LATER REASONING GIVEN THAT WE ARE NOW
INTO MARCH. THE NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION FRI
NIGHT...RESULTING IN LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. COLD
FRI NIGHT WITH LOW GENERALLY MID TEENS TO AROUND 20...WITH 10-15
POSSIBLE FROM INTERIOR S-CENTRAL VA TO THE ERN SHORE. ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPS SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. SWLY RETURN
FLOW COMMENCES...RESULTING IN MODERATING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND
TEMPS. THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND SUN...BUT
GUIDANCE RUNNING IN THE MID-UPPER 40S. TRENDED TOWARD
THICKNESSES...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW
TO MID 40S NEAR THE COAST...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GOING CLOSE TO THE 12Z GFS/CMC IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WILL MAINTAIN
DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU AT LEAST MON NGT AT THIS TIME..AS HI PRES
WILL BE OVR THE AREA. THERE IS THEN A HINT OF LO PRES MOVNG NE OUT
OF THE GULF AND ACRS THE REGION TUE THRU WED. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE
SLGT CHC OF RAIN DURING THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE RDGS THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR
20S TO UPR 30S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 40S TO UPR
50S...MAYBE INTO THE 60S ON WED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MIXTURE OF SLEET/SNOW NW OF KRIC WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WINTERY MIX WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW FM NW TO NE DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE DAY. IFR/LIFR OVER ALL TAF SITES WITH THE PCPN THROUGH
TONIGHT. TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED
AT RIC AND SBY WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES OR LESS AT THE SE TAF SITES.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FM THE N MUCH OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...PCPN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND
VFR CONDS RETURN. IMPROVING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRNT IS LOCATED NR THE NC/VA BORDER ERLY THIS MORNG...AND
WILL SLOWLY SLIDE S THRU MIDDAY. N WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER ALL
WTRS...INCREASING TO SCA THRESHOLDS BY THE MIDDAY/AFTN HRS. ALSO
HOISTED A GALE WARNG FOR THE SRN CSTL WTRS WHERE FREQUENT GUSTS UP
TO 35 KT ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENG AND OVRNGT. WAVES OVER THE CHES BAY
WILL BLD TO 3-5 FT...WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS BLDNG TO 6-10 FT. ALL
MARINE HEADLINES END DURING THE DAY FRI AS WINDS/WAVES/SEAS
DECREASE AS HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. BENIGN MARINE CONDS CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE HI REMAINING IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ012>017-
     030>032-102.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     VAZ060>062-065>073-077>094-099-100.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ048-049-
     063-064-074>076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ095>098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ632>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630-631-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...SAM/TMG
AVIATION...MAS/DAP
MARINE...MAS







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 051845
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
145 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
TODAY...WITH ANOTHER NIGHT OF NEAR ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO POPS TO BRING SNOW OUT JUST A BIT
QUICKER GIVEN LATEST RADAR TRENDS. HOWEVER...DID INCREASE SNOW
TOTALS IN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES...AS MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. THIS AREA IS ON THE
BACK EDGE OF AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND H850-700 FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING...SUPPORTING THE HIGHER RATES. STILL FORESEE THAT THE SNOW
WILL MOSTLY WRAP UP BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES
ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE. ALTHOUGH FRIDAY WILL BE DRY...ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. NEITHER SYSTEM
APPEARS TO HAVE MUCH DEEP MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO HAVE KEPT
CHANCE POPS TO THE NORTH WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...IN
THE 30S...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ENOUGH THAT SOME RAIN SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MIX IN WITH SNOW FROM PITTSBURGH TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
MIDWEEK. A SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMICS...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80. MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR SETUP BY MIDWEEK...BUT
AGAIN EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACTS AS ENERGY WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH.
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED WERE BASED MAINLY ON A BLEND OF EC AND
GEFS GUIDANCE,

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MUCH DRIER AIR IS FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH AND UNDERCUTTING THE
HIGHER CLOUD COVER. IN RESPONSE...THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD DECK HAS
BROKEN AND IS BEGINNING TO SCATTER OUT. THIS IS OCCURRING WHILE
THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS PULL AWAY AS THE LARGE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY TO
THE EAST. THE RESULT WILL BE A QUICK CLEARING OF SKIES THIS
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH LIGHT SURFACE FLOW THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE TAF PERIOD.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SUNDAY MORNING COLD FRONT.


&&

.CLIMATE...
PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1926.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1960.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...2 SET IN 1978.

PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...2 SET IN 1901.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...12 SET IN
1960...1969...AND 1972.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...5 SET IN 1960.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ076.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ012-
     021>023-041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 051831
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
131 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTH CAROLINA TODAY...WITH A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER TO THE
AREA...FOLLOWED BY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY. GRADUALLY
MODERATING...MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
P-TYPE TRANSITION PERIOD HAS BEGUN GENERALLY AS EXPECTED OVER THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE USED THE NAM12 AND HRRR,
WHICH HAS PERFORMED QUITE WELL WITH SFC TEMPS, AND NAM HAS BEEN
GREAT WITH TOP-DOWN PROCEDURES IN PINPOINTING SLEET/SNOW ZONES.
SNOW JUST NORTH OF THE AKQ CWA WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL, AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT NOTED, TRENDS
CONTINUE TO DICTATE A MINOR SLOWDOWN IN CHANGEOVER TIMING, WHICH
HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN DIGITAL FORECAST. SFC LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT
E-NE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTN. MEANWHILE, THE RIDGE HOLDING
STRONG WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A LONGER PERIOD OF `WARMER` MID-LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SLEET...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIC METRO AREA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VA
FOR THE MID TO LATE AFTN HOURS. AS A RESULT...SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION HAS BEEN TRIMMED BACK ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
AREA IN FAVOR OF MORE SLEET...WHILE SNOW TOTALS HAVE BEEN BUMPED
UP SLIGHTLY IN OUR WINTER STORM WARNING AREA. FINALLY, ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST, SNOW ACCUMULATION (AGAIN, PRIMARILY FOR SLEET) HAS BEEN
INCREASED WHERE MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY, WHILE SLEET REMAINS PREDOIMINATE ISSUE, A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN HAS BEEN INTRODUCED ALONG THE HIGHWAY 58 CORRIDOR
INTO SE VA AND INTERIOR NE NC FOR THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

CRITICAL H85-7 THICKNESS VALUES (SUB 1540M) ARE NOT REALIZED
UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT OVER NRN HALF OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME THE STRONGEST UVM WILL BE EXITING THE
COAST. OVERALL, UTILIZING ROEBBER SLR FORECASTING TOOL ALONG WITH
LOCAL THICKNESS CHART, FORECAST SLR VALUES WILL BE QUITE LOW FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY (PERHAPS AS LOW AS 4:1-8:1). THIS MAKES SENSE
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED ONGOING PERIOD OF SLEET (WHICH WILL EAT
INTO SNOWFALL TOTALS). FURTHER, MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL BE
`WARM` DURING THE STRONGEST FORCING THROUGH THE MID-AFTERNOON
HOURS. BASED ON ALL OF THE ABOVE, HAVE CONTINUED WITH A STRIPE OF
3-5" OF WET SNOW/SLEET ALONG A LINE FROM CUMBERLAND, VA TO
TAPPAHANNOCK AND SALISBURY, MD. THIS IS BORDERED BY A BAND OF 2-3"
FOR OTHER PORTIONS OF THE NW PIEDMONT...NRN NECK...NORTHERN RIC
SUBURBS AND REMAINDER OF THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE. CURRENTLY
1-2" OF SLEET/SNOW IS FORECAST FROM THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
RIC METRO /TRI-CITIES DOWN THROUGH HAMPTON ROADS...WITH AROUND 1"
OF SLEET/SNOW ALONG THE HIGHWAY 58 CORRIDOR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VA
INTO THE PIEDMONT.

WINTRY PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS EVENING...AS TOP DOWN DRYING
ENSUES W/DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE NW DURING THE LATE
EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ADVISORIES WILL RUN THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...WITH THE SE PORTION LINGERING THROUGH 3 AM WHERE DRIER
AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE/FAIR WEATHER TO PREVAIL DURING THE SHORT TERM.

SHORTWAVE EXITS THE NE COAST FRI MORNING WITH CONFLUENCE ALOFT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW STRONG 1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE TO CENTER OVER THE REGION FRI. COLD FRONT LOCATES
OFFSHORE...EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF. BEST MOISTURE GETS
SHUNTED OFFSHORE IN INCREASING WLY FLOW ALOFT. THE RESULT WILL BE
DRY CONDITIONS...BUT WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MODELS
CONSENSUS ATTEMPTS TO SHOW HIGHS IN THE 25-30 RANGE FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...H85 TEMPS ~-8C AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN
THE LOW-MID 30S...WITH POSSIBLY UPPER 20S OVER THE INTERIOR MD ERN
SHORE. WILL SIDE WITH THE LATER REASONING GIVEN THAT WE ARE NOW
INTO MARCH. THE NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION FRI
NIGHT...RESULTING IN LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. COLD
FRI NIGHT WITH LOW GENERALLY MID TEENS TO AROUND 20...WITH 10-15
POSSIBLE FROM INTERIOR S-CENTRAL VA TO THE ERN SHORE. ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPS SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. SWLY RETURN
FLOW COMMENCES...RESULTING IN MODERATING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND
TEMPS. THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND SUN...BUT
GUIDANCE RUNNING IN THE MID-UPPER 40S. TRENDED TOWARD
THICKNESSES...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW
TO MID 40S NEAR THE COAST...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GOING CLOSE TO THE 12Z GFS/CMC IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WILL MAINTAIN
DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU AT LEAST MON NGT AT THIS TIME..AS HI PRES
WILL BE OVR THE AREA. THERE IS THEN A HINT OF LO PRES MOVNG NE OUT
OF THE GULF AND ACRS THE REGION TUE THRU WED. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE
SLGT CHC OF RAIN DURING THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE RDGS THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR
20S TO UPR 30S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 40S TO UPR
50S...MAYBE INTO THE 60S ON WED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...FRNTAL BNDRY LOCATED OVR NE NC CONTINUES TO SLIDE
S...WITH GUSTY NLY WINDS N OF THE FRNT ACROSS THE FA. LO CIGS AND
VSBYS ARE COMMONPLACE THIS MORNG AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THE
RAIN MIXES WITH SLEET/FREEZING RAIN LATER THIS MORNG AND THEN
TRANSITIONS TO SLEET/SNOW FM NW TO NE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE DAY. IFR/LIFR CONDS EXPECTED OVER ALL TAF SITES WITH THE PCPN.
TWO TO FOUR INCH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT RIC AND SBY
WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES OR LESS AT THE SE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY FM THE N MUCH OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...PCPN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND
VFR CONDS RETURN. IMPROVING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRNT IS LOCATED NR THE NC/VA BORDER ERLY THIS MORNG...AND
WILL SLOWLY SLIDE S THRU MIDDAY. N WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER ALL
WTRS...INCREASING TO SCA THRESHOLDS BY THE MIDDAY/AFTN HRS. ALSO
HOISTED A GALE WARNG FOR THE SRN CSTL WTRS WHERE FREQUENT GUSTS UP
TO 35 KT ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENG AND OVRNGT. WAVES OVER THE CHES BAY
WILL BLD TO 3-5 FT...WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS BLDNG TO 6-10 FT. ALL
MARINE HEADLINES END DURING THE DAY FRI AS WINDS/WAVES/SEAS
DECREASE AS HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. BENIGN MARINE CONDS CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE HI REMAINING IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR NCZ102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ065-
     066-079>082-084-086>094-100.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ048-049-
     063-064-074>076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     VAZ060>062-067>073-077-078-083-085-099.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR VAZ095>098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ632>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630-631-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...SAM/TMG
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 051627
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1127 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTH CAROLINA TODAY...WITH A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER TO THE
AREA...FOLLOWED BY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY. GRADUALLY
MODERATING...MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE PRIMARY CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS SLOWER EVOLUTION
OF THE UPCOMING SYSTEM. START TIMES OF THE ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
DELAYED. ADDITIONALLY...ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR SE VA/NE NC
WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR A 3-5HR PERIOD OF SLEET EXISTS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WARNINGS REMAIN AS IS.

LATEST GOES WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE SE US RIDGE REMAINING RATHER
STUBBORN...WHICH IS KEEPING DEEPER MOISTURE WELL W OF THE REGION
BACK OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. THE RESULT OF THE RIDGE HOLDING
STRONG WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A LONGER PERIOD OF `WARMER` MID-LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MORE SLEET. AS A
RESULT...SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION HAS BEEN TRIMMED BACK ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ACCUMULATION (PRIMARILY SLEET) HAS
BEEN INCREASED OVER SE PORTIONS WHERE MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER INTO
THE EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...1035MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER
THE PLAINS STATES. COLDER AIR OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS SPREADING EWD
ACROSS PA...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A CHANGE TO SN OVER NRN MD AS OF 6
AM. LOCALLY TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NW...TO THE LOW
50S.

A STRONG ANTI-CYCLONIC JET REMAINS IN PLACE FROM THE MID MISS VLY
THROUGH ATLANTIC CANADA AND WILL TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH THE DAY AS A
STRONG TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. IT IS
AT THIS TIME THAT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE AND RRQ FORCING WILL
BE IDEALIZED, AS STRONG PV ANOMALY RIDES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS FORCING SHOULD EVENTUALLY TRIGGER
THE ONSET OF WINTRY PCPN FROM NNW-SSE ACROSS THE AREA.

CRITICAL H85-7 THICKNESS VALUES (SUB 1540M) ARE NOT REALIZED UNTIL
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TONIGHT OVER NRN HALF OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME THE STRONGEST UVM WILL BE EXITING THE COAST.
OVERALL, UTILIZING ROEBBER SLR FORECASTING TOOL ALONG WITH LOCAL
THICKNESS CHART, FORECAST SLR VALUES WILL BE QUITE LOW FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY (PERHAPS AS LOW AS 4:1-8:1). THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THAT
THERE WILL BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLEET (WHICH WILL EAT INTO
SNOWFALL TOTALS)...AND THAT MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL BE `WARM`
DURING THE STRONGEST FORCING IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS.
BASED ON ALL OF THE ABOVE, HAVE CONTINUED WITH A STRIPE OF 3-5" OF
WET SNOW/SLEET ALONG A LINE FROM PALMYRA, VA TO TAPPAHANNOCK AND
SALISBURY, MD. THIS IS BORDERED BY A BAND OF 2-3" FOR OTHER PORTIONS
OF THE NW PIEDMONT...NRN NECK...NORTHERN RIC SUBURBS AND REMAINDER
OF THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE. CURRENTLY 1-2" OF SLEET/SNOW IS
FORECAST FROM THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE RIC METRO /TRI-CITIES
DOWN THROUGH HAMPTON ROADS...WITH AROUND 1" ALONG THE HIGHWAY 58
CORRIDOR OVER CENTRAL VA INTO THE PIEDMONT.

WINTRY PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF THU EVENING...AS TOP DOWN DRYING ENSUES
W/DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE NW DURING THE LATE EVENING/EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ADVISORIES WILL RUN THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH THE
SE PORTION LINGERING THROUGH 3 AM WHERE DRIER AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO
ARRIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE/FAIR WEATHER TO PREVAIL DURING THE SHORT TERM.

SHORTWAVE EXITS THE NE COAST FRI MORNING WITH CONFLUENCE ALOFT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW STRONG 1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE TO CENTER OVER THE REGION FRI. COLD FRONT LOCATES
OFFSHORE...EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF. BEST MOISTURE GETS
SHUNTED OFFSHORE IN INCREASING WLY FLOW ALOFT. THE RESULT WILL BE
DRY CONDITIONS...BUT WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MODELS
CONSENSUS ATTEMPTS TO SHOW HIGHS IN THE 25-30 RANGE FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...H85 TEMPS ~-8C AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN
THE LOW-MID 30S...WITH POSSIBLY UPPER 20S OVER THE INTERIOR MD ERN
SHORE. WILL SIDE WITH THE LATER REASONING GIVEN THAT WE ARE NOW
INTO MARCH. THE NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION FRI
NIGHT...RESULTING IN LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. COLD
FRI NIGHT WITH LOW GENERALLY MID TEENS TO AROUND 20...WITH 10-15
POSSIBLE FROM INTERIOR S-CENTRAL VA TO THE ERN SHORE. ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPS SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. SWLY RETURN
FLOW COMMENCES...RESULTING IN MODERATING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND
TEMPS. THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND SUN...BUT
GUIDANCE RUNNING IN THE MID-UPPER 40S. TRENDED TOWARD
THICKNESSES...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW
TO MID 40S NEAR THE COAST...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GOING CLOSE TO THE 12Z GFS/CMC IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WILL MAINTAIN
DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU AT LEAST MON NGT AT THIS TIME..AS HI PRES
WILL BE OVR THE AREA. THERE IS THEN A HINT OF LO PRES MOVNG NE OUT
OF THE GULF AND ACRS THE REGION TUE THRU WED. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE
SLGT CHC OF RAIN DURING THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE RDGS THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR
20S TO UPR 30S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 40S TO UPR
50S...MAYBE INTO THE 60S ON WED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...FRNTAL BNDRY LOCATED OVR NE NC CONTINUES TO SLIDE
S...WITH GUSTY NLY WINDS N OF THE FRNT ACROSS THE FA. LO CIGS AND
VSBYS ARE COMMONPLACE THIS MORNG AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THE
RAIN MIXES WITH SLEET/FREEZING RAIN LATER THIS MORNG AND THEN
TRANSITIONS TO SLEET/SNOW FM NW TO NE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE DAY. IFR/LIFR CONDS EXPECTED OVER ALL TAF SITES WITH THE PCPN.
TWO TO FOUR INCH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT RIC AND SBY
WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES OR LESS AT THE SE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY FM THE N MUCH OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...PCPN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND
VFR CONDS RETURN. IMPROVING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRNT IS LOCATED NR THE NC/VA BORDER ERLY THIS MORNG...AND
WILL SLOWLY SLIDE S THRU MIDDAY. N WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER ALL
WTRS...INCREASING TO SCA THRESHOLDS BY THE MIDDAY/AFTN HRS. ALSO
HOISTED A GALE WARNG FOR THE SRN CSTL WTRS WHERE FREQUENT GUSTS UP
TO 35 KT ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENG AND OVRNGT. WAVES OVER THE CHES BAY
WILL BLD TO 3-5 FT...WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS BLDNG TO 6-10 FT. ALL
MARINE HEADLINES END DURING THE DAY FRI AS WINDS/WAVES/SEAS
DECREASE AS HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. BENIGN MARINE CONDS CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE HI REMAINING IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR NCZ102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ065-
     066-079>082-084-086>094-100.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ048-049-
     063-064-074>076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     VAZ060>062-067>073-077-078-083-085-099.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR VAZ095>098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ632>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630-631-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...SAM/TMG
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 051627
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1127 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTH CAROLINA TODAY...WITH A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER TO THE
AREA...FOLLOWED BY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY. GRADUALLY
MODERATING...MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE PRIMARY CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS SLOWER EVOLUTION
OF THE UPCOMING SYSTEM. START TIMES OF THE ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
DELAYED. ADDITIONALLY...ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR SE VA/NE NC
WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR A 3-5HR PERIOD OF SLEET EXISTS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WARNINGS REMAIN AS IS.

LATEST GOES WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE SE US RIDGE REMAINING RATHER
STUBBORN...WHICH IS KEEPING DEEPER MOISTURE WELL W OF THE REGION
BACK OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. THE RESULT OF THE RIDGE HOLDING
STRONG WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A LONGER PERIOD OF `WARMER` MID-LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MORE SLEET. AS A
RESULT...SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION HAS BEEN TRIMMED BACK ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ACCUMULATION (PRIMARILY SLEET) HAS
BEEN INCREASED OVER SE PORTIONS WHERE MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER INTO
THE EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...1035MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER
THE PLAINS STATES. COLDER AIR OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS SPREADING EWD
ACROSS PA...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A CHANGE TO SN OVER NRN MD AS OF 6
AM. LOCALLY TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NW...TO THE LOW
50S.

A STRONG ANTI-CYCLONIC JET REMAINS IN PLACE FROM THE MID MISS VLY
THROUGH ATLANTIC CANADA AND WILL TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH THE DAY AS A
STRONG TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. IT IS
AT THIS TIME THAT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE AND RRQ FORCING WILL
BE IDEALIZED, AS STRONG PV ANOMALY RIDES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS FORCING SHOULD EVENTUALLY TRIGGER
THE ONSET OF WINTRY PCPN FROM NNW-SSE ACROSS THE AREA.

CRITICAL H85-7 THICKNESS VALUES (SUB 1540M) ARE NOT REALIZED UNTIL
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TONIGHT OVER NRN HALF OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME THE STRONGEST UVM WILL BE EXITING THE COAST.
OVERALL, UTILIZING ROEBBER SLR FORECASTING TOOL ALONG WITH LOCAL
THICKNESS CHART, FORECAST SLR VALUES WILL BE QUITE LOW FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY (PERHAPS AS LOW AS 4:1-8:1). THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THAT
THERE WILL BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLEET (WHICH WILL EAT INTO
SNOWFALL TOTALS)...AND THAT MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL BE `WARM`
DURING THE STRONGEST FORCING IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS.
BASED ON ALL OF THE ABOVE, HAVE CONTINUED WITH A STRIPE OF 3-5" OF
WET SNOW/SLEET ALONG A LINE FROM PALMYRA, VA TO TAPPAHANNOCK AND
SALISBURY, MD. THIS IS BORDERED BY A BAND OF 2-3" FOR OTHER PORTIONS
OF THE NW PIEDMONT...NRN NECK...NORTHERN RIC SUBURBS AND REMAINDER
OF THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE. CURRENTLY 1-2" OF SLEET/SNOW IS
FORECAST FROM THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE RIC METRO /TRI-CITIES
DOWN THROUGH HAMPTON ROADS...WITH AROUND 1" ALONG THE HIGHWAY 58
CORRIDOR OVER CENTRAL VA INTO THE PIEDMONT.

WINTRY PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF THU EVENING...AS TOP DOWN DRYING ENSUES
W/DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE NW DURING THE LATE EVENING/EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ADVISORIES WILL RUN THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH THE
SE PORTION LINGERING THROUGH 3 AM WHERE DRIER AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO
ARRIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE/FAIR WEATHER TO PREVAIL DURING THE SHORT TERM.

SHORTWAVE EXITS THE NE COAST FRI MORNING WITH CONFLUENCE ALOFT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW STRONG 1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE TO CENTER OVER THE REGION FRI. COLD FRONT LOCATES
OFFSHORE...EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF. BEST MOISTURE GETS
SHUNTED OFFSHORE IN INCREASING WLY FLOW ALOFT. THE RESULT WILL BE
DRY CONDITIONS...BUT WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MODELS
CONSENSUS ATTEMPTS TO SHOW HIGHS IN THE 25-30 RANGE FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...H85 TEMPS ~-8C AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN
THE LOW-MID 30S...WITH POSSIBLY UPPER 20S OVER THE INTERIOR MD ERN
SHORE. WILL SIDE WITH THE LATER REASONING GIVEN THAT WE ARE NOW
INTO MARCH. THE NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION FRI
NIGHT...RESULTING IN LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. COLD
FRI NIGHT WITH LOW GENERALLY MID TEENS TO AROUND 20...WITH 10-15
POSSIBLE FROM INTERIOR S-CENTRAL VA TO THE ERN SHORE. ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPS SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. SWLY RETURN
FLOW COMMENCES...RESULTING IN MODERATING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND
TEMPS. THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND SUN...BUT
GUIDANCE RUNNING IN THE MID-UPPER 40S. TRENDED TOWARD
THICKNESSES...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW
TO MID 40S NEAR THE COAST...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GOING CLOSE TO THE 12Z GFS/CMC IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WILL MAINTAIN
DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU AT LEAST MON NGT AT THIS TIME..AS HI PRES
WILL BE OVR THE AREA. THERE IS THEN A HINT OF LO PRES MOVNG NE OUT
OF THE GULF AND ACRS THE REGION TUE THRU WED. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE
SLGT CHC OF RAIN DURING THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE RDGS THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR
20S TO UPR 30S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 40S TO UPR
50S...MAYBE INTO THE 60S ON WED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...FRNTAL BNDRY LOCATED OVR NE NC CONTINUES TO SLIDE
S...WITH GUSTY NLY WINDS N OF THE FRNT ACROSS THE FA. LO CIGS AND
VSBYS ARE COMMONPLACE THIS MORNG AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THE
RAIN MIXES WITH SLEET/FREEZING RAIN LATER THIS MORNG AND THEN
TRANSITIONS TO SLEET/SNOW FM NW TO NE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE DAY. IFR/LIFR CONDS EXPECTED OVER ALL TAF SITES WITH THE PCPN.
TWO TO FOUR INCH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT RIC AND SBY
WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES OR LESS AT THE SE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY FM THE N MUCH OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...PCPN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND
VFR CONDS RETURN. IMPROVING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRNT IS LOCATED NR THE NC/VA BORDER ERLY THIS MORNG...AND
WILL SLOWLY SLIDE S THRU MIDDAY. N WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER ALL
WTRS...INCREASING TO SCA THRESHOLDS BY THE MIDDAY/AFTN HRS. ALSO
HOISTED A GALE WARNG FOR THE SRN CSTL WTRS WHERE FREQUENT GUSTS UP
TO 35 KT ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENG AND OVRNGT. WAVES OVER THE CHES BAY
WILL BLD TO 3-5 FT...WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS BLDNG TO 6-10 FT. ALL
MARINE HEADLINES END DURING THE DAY FRI AS WINDS/WAVES/SEAS
DECREASE AS HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. BENIGN MARINE CONDS CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE HI REMAINING IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR NCZ102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ065-
     066-079>082-084-086>094-100.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ048-049-
     063-064-074>076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     VAZ060>062-067>073-077-078-083-085-099.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR VAZ095>098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ632>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630-631-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...SAM/TMG
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 051627
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1127 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTH CAROLINA TODAY...WITH A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER TO THE
AREA...FOLLOWED BY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY. GRADUALLY
MODERATING...MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE PRIMARY CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS SLOWER EVOLUTION
OF THE UPCOMING SYSTEM. START TIMES OF THE ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
DELAYED. ADDITIONALLY...ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR SE VA/NE NC
WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR A 3-5HR PERIOD OF SLEET EXISTS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WARNINGS REMAIN AS IS.

LATEST GOES WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE SE US RIDGE REMAINING RATHER
STUBBORN...WHICH IS KEEPING DEEPER MOISTURE WELL W OF THE REGION
BACK OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. THE RESULT OF THE RIDGE HOLDING
STRONG WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A LONGER PERIOD OF `WARMER` MID-LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MORE SLEET. AS A
RESULT...SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION HAS BEEN TRIMMED BACK ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ACCUMULATION (PRIMARILY SLEET) HAS
BEEN INCREASED OVER SE PORTIONS WHERE MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER INTO
THE EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...1035MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER
THE PLAINS STATES. COLDER AIR OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS SPREADING EWD
ACROSS PA...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A CHANGE TO SN OVER NRN MD AS OF 6
AM. LOCALLY TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NW...TO THE LOW
50S.

A STRONG ANTI-CYCLONIC JET REMAINS IN PLACE FROM THE MID MISS VLY
THROUGH ATLANTIC CANADA AND WILL TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH THE DAY AS A
STRONG TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. IT IS
AT THIS TIME THAT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE AND RRQ FORCING WILL
BE IDEALIZED, AS STRONG PV ANOMALY RIDES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS FORCING SHOULD EVENTUALLY TRIGGER
THE ONSET OF WINTRY PCPN FROM NNW-SSE ACROSS THE AREA.

CRITICAL H85-7 THICKNESS VALUES (SUB 1540M) ARE NOT REALIZED UNTIL
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TONIGHT OVER NRN HALF OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME THE STRONGEST UVM WILL BE EXITING THE COAST.
OVERALL, UTILIZING ROEBBER SLR FORECASTING TOOL ALONG WITH LOCAL
THICKNESS CHART, FORECAST SLR VALUES WILL BE QUITE LOW FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY (PERHAPS AS LOW AS 4:1-8:1). THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THAT
THERE WILL BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLEET (WHICH WILL EAT INTO
SNOWFALL TOTALS)...AND THAT MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL BE `WARM`
DURING THE STRONGEST FORCING IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS.
BASED ON ALL OF THE ABOVE, HAVE CONTINUED WITH A STRIPE OF 3-5" OF
WET SNOW/SLEET ALONG A LINE FROM PALMYRA, VA TO TAPPAHANNOCK AND
SALISBURY, MD. THIS IS BORDERED BY A BAND OF 2-3" FOR OTHER PORTIONS
OF THE NW PIEDMONT...NRN NECK...NORTHERN RIC SUBURBS AND REMAINDER
OF THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE. CURRENTLY 1-2" OF SLEET/SNOW IS
FORECAST FROM THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE RIC METRO /TRI-CITIES
DOWN THROUGH HAMPTON ROADS...WITH AROUND 1" ALONG THE HIGHWAY 58
CORRIDOR OVER CENTRAL VA INTO THE PIEDMONT.

WINTRY PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF THU EVENING...AS TOP DOWN DRYING ENSUES
W/DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE NW DURING THE LATE EVENING/EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ADVISORIES WILL RUN THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH THE
SE PORTION LINGERING THROUGH 3 AM WHERE DRIER AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO
ARRIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE/FAIR WEATHER TO PREVAIL DURING THE SHORT TERM.

SHORTWAVE EXITS THE NE COAST FRI MORNING WITH CONFLUENCE ALOFT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW STRONG 1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE TO CENTER OVER THE REGION FRI. COLD FRONT LOCATES
OFFSHORE...EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF. BEST MOISTURE GETS
SHUNTED OFFSHORE IN INCREASING WLY FLOW ALOFT. THE RESULT WILL BE
DRY CONDITIONS...BUT WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MODELS
CONSENSUS ATTEMPTS TO SHOW HIGHS IN THE 25-30 RANGE FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...H85 TEMPS ~-8C AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN
THE LOW-MID 30S...WITH POSSIBLY UPPER 20S OVER THE INTERIOR MD ERN
SHORE. WILL SIDE WITH THE LATER REASONING GIVEN THAT WE ARE NOW
INTO MARCH. THE NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION FRI
NIGHT...RESULTING IN LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. COLD
FRI NIGHT WITH LOW GENERALLY MID TEENS TO AROUND 20...WITH 10-15
POSSIBLE FROM INTERIOR S-CENTRAL VA TO THE ERN SHORE. ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPS SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. SWLY RETURN
FLOW COMMENCES...RESULTING IN MODERATING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND
TEMPS. THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND SUN...BUT
GUIDANCE RUNNING IN THE MID-UPPER 40S. TRENDED TOWARD
THICKNESSES...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW
TO MID 40S NEAR THE COAST...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GOING CLOSE TO THE 12Z GFS/CMC IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WILL MAINTAIN
DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU AT LEAST MON NGT AT THIS TIME..AS HI PRES
WILL BE OVR THE AREA. THERE IS THEN A HINT OF LO PRES MOVNG NE OUT
OF THE GULF AND ACRS THE REGION TUE THRU WED. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE
SLGT CHC OF RAIN DURING THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE RDGS THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR
20S TO UPR 30S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 40S TO UPR
50S...MAYBE INTO THE 60S ON WED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...FRNTAL BNDRY LOCATED OVR NE NC CONTINUES TO SLIDE
S...WITH GUSTY NLY WINDS N OF THE FRNT ACROSS THE FA. LO CIGS AND
VSBYS ARE COMMONPLACE THIS MORNG AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THE
RAIN MIXES WITH SLEET/FREEZING RAIN LATER THIS MORNG AND THEN
TRANSITIONS TO SLEET/SNOW FM NW TO NE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE DAY. IFR/LIFR CONDS EXPECTED OVER ALL TAF SITES WITH THE PCPN.
TWO TO FOUR INCH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT RIC AND SBY
WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES OR LESS AT THE SE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY FM THE N MUCH OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...PCPN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND
VFR CONDS RETURN. IMPROVING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRNT IS LOCATED NR THE NC/VA BORDER ERLY THIS MORNG...AND
WILL SLOWLY SLIDE S THRU MIDDAY. N WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER ALL
WTRS...INCREASING TO SCA THRESHOLDS BY THE MIDDAY/AFTN HRS. ALSO
HOISTED A GALE WARNG FOR THE SRN CSTL WTRS WHERE FREQUENT GUSTS UP
TO 35 KT ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENG AND OVRNGT. WAVES OVER THE CHES BAY
WILL BLD TO 3-5 FT...WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS BLDNG TO 6-10 FT. ALL
MARINE HEADLINES END DURING THE DAY FRI AS WINDS/WAVES/SEAS
DECREASE AS HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. BENIGN MARINE CONDS CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE HI REMAINING IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR NCZ102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ065-
     066-079>082-084-086>094-100.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ048-049-
     063-064-074>076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     VAZ060>062-067>073-077-078-083-085-099.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR VAZ095>098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ632>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630-631-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...SAM/TMG
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 051627
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1127 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTH CAROLINA TODAY...WITH A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER TO THE
AREA...FOLLOWED BY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY. GRADUALLY
MODERATING...MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE PRIMARY CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS SLOWER EVOLUTION
OF THE UPCOMING SYSTEM. START TIMES OF THE ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
DELAYED. ADDITIONALLY...ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR SE VA/NE NC
WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR A 3-5HR PERIOD OF SLEET EXISTS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WARNINGS REMAIN AS IS.

LATEST GOES WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE SE US RIDGE REMAINING RATHER
STUBBORN...WHICH IS KEEPING DEEPER MOISTURE WELL W OF THE REGION
BACK OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. THE RESULT OF THE RIDGE HOLDING
STRONG WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A LONGER PERIOD OF `WARMER` MID-LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MORE SLEET. AS A
RESULT...SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION HAS BEEN TRIMMED BACK ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ACCUMULATION (PRIMARILY SLEET) HAS
BEEN INCREASED OVER SE PORTIONS WHERE MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER INTO
THE EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...1035MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER
THE PLAINS STATES. COLDER AIR OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS SPREADING EWD
ACROSS PA...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A CHANGE TO SN OVER NRN MD AS OF 6
AM. LOCALLY TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NW...TO THE LOW
50S.

A STRONG ANTI-CYCLONIC JET REMAINS IN PLACE FROM THE MID MISS VLY
THROUGH ATLANTIC CANADA AND WILL TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH THE DAY AS A
STRONG TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. IT IS
AT THIS TIME THAT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE AND RRQ FORCING WILL
BE IDEALIZED, AS STRONG PV ANOMALY RIDES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS FORCING SHOULD EVENTUALLY TRIGGER
THE ONSET OF WINTRY PCPN FROM NNW-SSE ACROSS THE AREA.

CRITICAL H85-7 THICKNESS VALUES (SUB 1540M) ARE NOT REALIZED UNTIL
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TONIGHT OVER NRN HALF OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME THE STRONGEST UVM WILL BE EXITING THE COAST.
OVERALL, UTILIZING ROEBBER SLR FORECASTING TOOL ALONG WITH LOCAL
THICKNESS CHART, FORECAST SLR VALUES WILL BE QUITE LOW FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY (PERHAPS AS LOW AS 4:1-8:1). THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THAT
THERE WILL BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLEET (WHICH WILL EAT INTO
SNOWFALL TOTALS)...AND THAT MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL BE `WARM`
DURING THE STRONGEST FORCING IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS.
BASED ON ALL OF THE ABOVE, HAVE CONTINUED WITH A STRIPE OF 3-5" OF
WET SNOW/SLEET ALONG A LINE FROM PALMYRA, VA TO TAPPAHANNOCK AND
SALISBURY, MD. THIS IS BORDERED BY A BAND OF 2-3" FOR OTHER PORTIONS
OF THE NW PIEDMONT...NRN NECK...NORTHERN RIC SUBURBS AND REMAINDER
OF THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE. CURRENTLY 1-2" OF SLEET/SNOW IS
FORECAST FROM THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE RIC METRO /TRI-CITIES
DOWN THROUGH HAMPTON ROADS...WITH AROUND 1" ALONG THE HIGHWAY 58
CORRIDOR OVER CENTRAL VA INTO THE PIEDMONT.

WINTRY PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF THU EVENING...AS TOP DOWN DRYING ENSUES
W/DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE NW DURING THE LATE EVENING/EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ADVISORIES WILL RUN THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH THE
SE PORTION LINGERING THROUGH 3 AM WHERE DRIER AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO
ARRIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE/FAIR WEATHER TO PREVAIL DURING THE SHORT TERM.

SHORTWAVE EXITS THE NE COAST FRI MORNING WITH CONFLUENCE ALOFT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW STRONG 1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE TO CENTER OVER THE REGION FRI. COLD FRONT LOCATES
OFFSHORE...EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF. BEST MOISTURE GETS
SHUNTED OFFSHORE IN INCREASING WLY FLOW ALOFT. THE RESULT WILL BE
DRY CONDITIONS...BUT WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MODELS
CONSENSUS ATTEMPTS TO SHOW HIGHS IN THE 25-30 RANGE FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...H85 TEMPS ~-8C AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN
THE LOW-MID 30S...WITH POSSIBLY UPPER 20S OVER THE INTERIOR MD ERN
SHORE. WILL SIDE WITH THE LATER REASONING GIVEN THAT WE ARE NOW
INTO MARCH. THE NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION FRI
NIGHT...RESULTING IN LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. COLD
FRI NIGHT WITH LOW GENERALLY MID TEENS TO AROUND 20...WITH 10-15
POSSIBLE FROM INTERIOR S-CENTRAL VA TO THE ERN SHORE. ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPS SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. SWLY RETURN
FLOW COMMENCES...RESULTING IN MODERATING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND
TEMPS. THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND SUN...BUT
GUIDANCE RUNNING IN THE MID-UPPER 40S. TRENDED TOWARD
THICKNESSES...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW
TO MID 40S NEAR THE COAST...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GOING CLOSE TO THE 12Z GFS/CMC IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WILL MAINTAIN
DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU AT LEAST MON NGT AT THIS TIME..AS HI PRES
WILL BE OVR THE AREA. THERE IS THEN A HINT OF LO PRES MOVNG NE OUT
OF THE GULF AND ACRS THE REGION TUE THRU WED. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE
SLGT CHC OF RAIN DURING THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE RDGS THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR
20S TO UPR 30S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 40S TO UPR
50S...MAYBE INTO THE 60S ON WED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...FRNTAL BNDRY LOCATED OVR NE NC CONTINUES TO SLIDE
S...WITH GUSTY NLY WINDS N OF THE FRNT ACROSS THE FA. LO CIGS AND
VSBYS ARE COMMONPLACE THIS MORNG AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THE
RAIN MIXES WITH SLEET/FREEZING RAIN LATER THIS MORNG AND THEN
TRANSITIONS TO SLEET/SNOW FM NW TO NE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE DAY. IFR/LIFR CONDS EXPECTED OVER ALL TAF SITES WITH THE PCPN.
TWO TO FOUR INCH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT RIC AND SBY
WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES OR LESS AT THE SE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY FM THE N MUCH OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...PCPN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND
VFR CONDS RETURN. IMPROVING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRNT IS LOCATED NR THE NC/VA BORDER ERLY THIS MORNG...AND
WILL SLOWLY SLIDE S THRU MIDDAY. N WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER ALL
WTRS...INCREASING TO SCA THRESHOLDS BY THE MIDDAY/AFTN HRS. ALSO
HOISTED A GALE WARNG FOR THE SRN CSTL WTRS WHERE FREQUENT GUSTS UP
TO 35 KT ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENG AND OVRNGT. WAVES OVER THE CHES BAY
WILL BLD TO 3-5 FT...WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS BLDNG TO 6-10 FT. ALL
MARINE HEADLINES END DURING THE DAY FRI AS WINDS/WAVES/SEAS
DECREASE AS HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. BENIGN MARINE CONDS CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE HI REMAINING IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR NCZ102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ065-
     066-079>082-084-086>094-100.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ048-049-
     063-064-074>076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     VAZ060>062-067>073-077-078-083-085-099.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR VAZ095>098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ632>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630-631-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...SAM/TMG
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 051618
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1118 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THIS MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION CONTINUING UNTIL THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD FRIDAY...THEN SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 16Z...TRANSITION ZONE TO SNW NOW SITTING NEAR CHO-EZF-NHK.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A SWATH OF PCPN ACRS THE CWFA FM SW TO NE.
THIS ZONE CONNECTED TO A LONG STREAM OF MSTR...XTNDG BACK TO LA.
STRONG F-GEN CNVGNC RESIDES W/IN THIS ZONE...WHICH HV BEEN
ENHANCING SNOWFALL RATES. THERES ALSO A PERIOD OF GOOD DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH WITHIN APPROX THE SAME CORRIDOR. WE/RE RECEIVING
REPORTS W/ SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES/HR UNDER THIS BAND. AREA
AFFECTED INCL NWRN BURBS OF DC UP TO BALT CITY. HV ADDED HEAVY AT
TIMES WORDING TO GRIDS AND BUMPED UP SNOW TTLS BY AN INCH OR TWO
W/IN THIS CORRIDOR.

AS 12Z GDNC ARRIVES...FOCUSING PROGRESS OF BAND OF FGEN FORCING.
ALL SIGNALS STILL SUGGESTING THAT THE BAND WILL BE SINKING INTO
CENTRAL VA AND SRN MD TAFTN. HV ADJUSTED GRIDS ACCRDGLY.

ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL WIND DOWN DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HWVR...RRQ OF UPR JET WL ARRIVE AS MID-LVL FORCING DEPARTS.
THAT SUGGESTS THAT FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO THE EVNG. STILL HV
ACCUM SNOW /FRACTION OF AN INCH/ INTO ELY EVNG ACRS SRN MD. NO
ADDTL SNOWFALL XPCTD ELSW.

SKIES MAY ACTUALLY CLEAR FAIRLY QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AS THE DRY
ARCTIC AIRMASS PUSHES IN. SINGLE DIGIT LOWS WILL BE COMMON
TONIGHT...WITH TEENS EAST OF I-95 AND POSSIBLY BELOW ZERO IN THE
MOUNTAINS. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED IN THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS FOR READINGS BELOW -10F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVERHEAD FRIDAY WITH SUNNY AND TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS MID TO UPR 20S DUE TO LITTLE MIXING AND FRESH
SNOW.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. COLD AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING WITH MINIMA AROUND 10F
FOR MANY INTERIOR LOCATIONS...TEENS MORE LIKELY WHERE MIXING
PERSISTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD TROUGH CROSSES THE UPR MIDWEST TO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC
MONDAY...THOUGH IT APPEARS CLOUD COVER WOULD BE THE ONLY SENSIBLE
WEATHER. OTHERWISE...A WELCOME CALM WEATHER PATTERN WITH A WARMING
TREND. A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON MAX TEMPS EACH DAY IN SWLY FLOW...LOW
40S FOR SATURDAY...MID 40S N...MID 50S S MONDAY. 60S POSSIBLE SOUTH
OF DC TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS OR LOWER HAS COMMENCED AT ALL TERMINALS DUE TO A
BAND OF HEAVY SNOW. SN WILL LIGHTEN DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING DURING THE EVENING. VFR IS EXPECTED LATER
OVERNIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY N OR NW...SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD FRIDAY WITH VFR/TRANQUIL
CONDS. COLD AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE TEENS TO 10F.
SWLY FLOW AND MORE HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR ALL WATERS WITH N/NW WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KT AS
COLDER AIR MOVES IN. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SLEET AND SNOW FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY. PRECIP ENDS THIS EVENING BUT WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO GUST TO SCA LEVELS THURSDAY MORNING...WHEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN TAKE CONTROL.

SCA CONTINUES FOR SRN MD WATERS FRIDAY MORNING FOR NLY
CHANNELING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN
SETTLES OVER THE SERN STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LIGHT SWLY
FLOW EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ICE-INDUCED STREAM RISES HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. GUNPOWDER FALLS AT GLENCOE ROSE ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE OVERNIGHT DUE TO ICE EFFECTS AND REMAINS ABOVE FLOOD AT THIS
TIME. IT ALSO APPEARS EXTREMELY LIKELY THAT THERE IS AN ICE JAM ON
THE LOST/CACAPON RIVER IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA SINCE THE GAUGE AT
GREAT CACAPON HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE DESPITE THE RAIN.

WITH THE RAIN NOW CHANGING TO SNOW...THESE ARE THE TWO MOST LIKELY
AREAS FOR MINOR FLOODING TODAY...WITH THE THREAT RAPIDLY DECREASING
ELSEWHERE. SINCE THERE ARE NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EVENTS AFTER
TODAY FOR AT LEAST A WEEK...THE MELT OF THE CURRENTLY-FALLING SNOW
SHOULD BE GRADUAL AND IS UNLIKELY TO POSE A FLOOD THREAT IN THE
COMING DAYS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ003>006-011-501>508.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ013-
     014-016-018.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ017.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ025>031-040-501-503>508.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ038-
     039-050>055-502.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ036-
     037-056-057.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ050>053-055-501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>532-535-
     536-538>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ533-534-537-
     543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/ADS
NEAR TERM...HTS/ADS
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...BAJ
AVIATION...HTS/BAJ/ADS
MARINE...ADS/BAJ
HYDROLOGY...JE




000
FXUS61 KLWX 051618
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1118 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THIS MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION CONTINUING UNTIL THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD FRIDAY...THEN SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 16Z...TRANSITION ZONE TO SNW NOW SITTING NEAR CHO-EZF-NHK.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A SWATH OF PCPN ACRS THE CWFA FM SW TO NE.
THIS ZONE CONNECTED TO A LONG STREAM OF MSTR...XTNDG BACK TO LA.
STRONG F-GEN CNVGNC RESIDES W/IN THIS ZONE...WHICH HV BEEN
ENHANCING SNOWFALL RATES. THERES ALSO A PERIOD OF GOOD DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH WITHIN APPROX THE SAME CORRIDOR. WE/RE RECEIVING
REPORTS W/ SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES/HR UNDER THIS BAND. AREA
AFFECTED INCL NWRN BURBS OF DC UP TO BALT CITY. HV ADDED HEAVY AT
TIMES WORDING TO GRIDS AND BUMPED UP SNOW TTLS BY AN INCH OR TWO
W/IN THIS CORRIDOR.

AS 12Z GDNC ARRIVES...FOCUSING PROGRESS OF BAND OF FGEN FORCING.
ALL SIGNALS STILL SUGGESTING THAT THE BAND WILL BE SINKING INTO
CENTRAL VA AND SRN MD TAFTN. HV ADJUSTED GRIDS ACCRDGLY.

ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL WIND DOWN DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HWVR...RRQ OF UPR JET WL ARRIVE AS MID-LVL FORCING DEPARTS.
THAT SUGGESTS THAT FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO THE EVNG. STILL HV
ACCUM SNOW /FRACTION OF AN INCH/ INTO ELY EVNG ACRS SRN MD. NO
ADDTL SNOWFALL XPCTD ELSW.

SKIES MAY ACTUALLY CLEAR FAIRLY QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AS THE DRY
ARCTIC AIRMASS PUSHES IN. SINGLE DIGIT LOWS WILL BE COMMON
TONIGHT...WITH TEENS EAST OF I-95 AND POSSIBLY BELOW ZERO IN THE
MOUNTAINS. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED IN THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS FOR READINGS BELOW -10F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVERHEAD FRIDAY WITH SUNNY AND TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS MID TO UPR 20S DUE TO LITTLE MIXING AND FRESH
SNOW.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. COLD AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING WITH MINIMA AROUND 10F
FOR MANY INTERIOR LOCATIONS...TEENS MORE LIKELY WHERE MIXING
PERSISTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD TROUGH CROSSES THE UPR MIDWEST TO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC
MONDAY...THOUGH IT APPEARS CLOUD COVER WOULD BE THE ONLY SENSIBLE
WEATHER. OTHERWISE...A WELCOME CALM WEATHER PATTERN WITH A WARMING
TREND. A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON MAX TEMPS EACH DAY IN SWLY FLOW...LOW
40S FOR SATURDAY...MID 40S N...MID 50S S MONDAY. 60S POSSIBLE SOUTH
OF DC TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS OR LOWER HAS COMMENCED AT ALL TERMINALS DUE TO A
BAND OF HEAVY SNOW. SN WILL LIGHTEN DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING DURING THE EVENING. VFR IS EXPECTED LATER
OVERNIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY N OR NW...SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD FRIDAY WITH VFR/TRANQUIL
CONDS. COLD AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE TEENS TO 10F.
SWLY FLOW AND MORE HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR ALL WATERS WITH N/NW WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KT AS
COLDER AIR MOVES IN. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SLEET AND SNOW FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY. PRECIP ENDS THIS EVENING BUT WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO GUST TO SCA LEVELS THURSDAY MORNING...WHEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN TAKE CONTROL.

SCA CONTINUES FOR SRN MD WATERS FRIDAY MORNING FOR NLY
CHANNELING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN
SETTLES OVER THE SERN STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LIGHT SWLY
FLOW EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ICE-INDUCED STREAM RISES HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. GUNPOWDER FALLS AT GLENCOE ROSE ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE OVERNIGHT DUE TO ICE EFFECTS AND REMAINS ABOVE FLOOD AT THIS
TIME. IT ALSO APPEARS EXTREMELY LIKELY THAT THERE IS AN ICE JAM ON
THE LOST/CACAPON RIVER IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA SINCE THE GAUGE AT
GREAT CACAPON HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE DESPITE THE RAIN.

WITH THE RAIN NOW CHANGING TO SNOW...THESE ARE THE TWO MOST LIKELY
AREAS FOR MINOR FLOODING TODAY...WITH THE THREAT RAPIDLY DECREASING
ELSEWHERE. SINCE THERE ARE NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EVENTS AFTER
TODAY FOR AT LEAST A WEEK...THE MELT OF THE CURRENTLY-FALLING SNOW
SHOULD BE GRADUAL AND IS UNLIKELY TO POSE A FLOOD THREAT IN THE
COMING DAYS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ003>006-011-501>508.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ013-
     014-016-018.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ017.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ025>031-040-501-503>508.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ038-
     039-050>055-502.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ036-
     037-056-057.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ050>053-055-501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>532-535-
     536-538>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ533-534-537-
     543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/ADS
NEAR TERM...HTS/ADS
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...BAJ
AVIATION...HTS/BAJ/ADS
MARINE...ADS/BAJ
HYDROLOGY...JE



000
FXUS61 KLWX 051618
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1118 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THIS MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION CONTINUING UNTIL THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD FRIDAY...THEN SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 16Z...TRANSITION ZONE TO SNW NOW SITTING NEAR CHO-EZF-NHK.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A SWATH OF PCPN ACRS THE CWFA FM SW TO NE.
THIS ZONE CONNECTED TO A LONG STREAM OF MSTR...XTNDG BACK TO LA.
STRONG F-GEN CNVGNC RESIDES W/IN THIS ZONE...WHICH HV BEEN
ENHANCING SNOWFALL RATES. THERES ALSO A PERIOD OF GOOD DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH WITHIN APPROX THE SAME CORRIDOR. WE/RE RECEIVING
REPORTS W/ SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES/HR UNDER THIS BAND. AREA
AFFECTED INCL NWRN BURBS OF DC UP TO BALT CITY. HV ADDED HEAVY AT
TIMES WORDING TO GRIDS AND BUMPED UP SNOW TTLS BY AN INCH OR TWO
W/IN THIS CORRIDOR.

AS 12Z GDNC ARRIVES...FOCUSING PROGRESS OF BAND OF FGEN FORCING.
ALL SIGNALS STILL SUGGESTING THAT THE BAND WILL BE SINKING INTO
CENTRAL VA AND SRN MD TAFTN. HV ADJUSTED GRIDS ACCRDGLY.

ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL WIND DOWN DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HWVR...RRQ OF UPR JET WL ARRIVE AS MID-LVL FORCING DEPARTS.
THAT SUGGESTS THAT FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO THE EVNG. STILL HV
ACCUM SNOW /FRACTION OF AN INCH/ INTO ELY EVNG ACRS SRN MD. NO
ADDTL SNOWFALL XPCTD ELSW.

SKIES MAY ACTUALLY CLEAR FAIRLY QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AS THE DRY
ARCTIC AIRMASS PUSHES IN. SINGLE DIGIT LOWS WILL BE COMMON
TONIGHT...WITH TEENS EAST OF I-95 AND POSSIBLY BELOW ZERO IN THE
MOUNTAINS. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED IN THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS FOR READINGS BELOW -10F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVERHEAD FRIDAY WITH SUNNY AND TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS MID TO UPR 20S DUE TO LITTLE MIXING AND FRESH
SNOW.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. COLD AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING WITH MINIMA AROUND 10F
FOR MANY INTERIOR LOCATIONS...TEENS MORE LIKELY WHERE MIXING
PERSISTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD TROUGH CROSSES THE UPR MIDWEST TO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC
MONDAY...THOUGH IT APPEARS CLOUD COVER WOULD BE THE ONLY SENSIBLE
WEATHER. OTHERWISE...A WELCOME CALM WEATHER PATTERN WITH A WARMING
TREND. A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON MAX TEMPS EACH DAY IN SWLY FLOW...LOW
40S FOR SATURDAY...MID 40S N...MID 50S S MONDAY. 60S POSSIBLE SOUTH
OF DC TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS OR LOWER HAS COMMENCED AT ALL TERMINALS DUE TO A
BAND OF HEAVY SNOW. SN WILL LIGHTEN DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING DURING THE EVENING. VFR IS EXPECTED LATER
OVERNIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY N OR NW...SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD FRIDAY WITH VFR/TRANQUIL
CONDS. COLD AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE TEENS TO 10F.
SWLY FLOW AND MORE HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR ALL WATERS WITH N/NW WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KT AS
COLDER AIR MOVES IN. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SLEET AND SNOW FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY. PRECIP ENDS THIS EVENING BUT WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO GUST TO SCA LEVELS THURSDAY MORNING...WHEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN TAKE CONTROL.

SCA CONTINUES FOR SRN MD WATERS FRIDAY MORNING FOR NLY
CHANNELING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN
SETTLES OVER THE SERN STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LIGHT SWLY
FLOW EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ICE-INDUCED STREAM RISES HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. GUNPOWDER FALLS AT GLENCOE ROSE ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE OVERNIGHT DUE TO ICE EFFECTS AND REMAINS ABOVE FLOOD AT THIS
TIME. IT ALSO APPEARS EXTREMELY LIKELY THAT THERE IS AN ICE JAM ON
THE LOST/CACAPON RIVER IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA SINCE THE GAUGE AT
GREAT CACAPON HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE DESPITE THE RAIN.

WITH THE RAIN NOW CHANGING TO SNOW...THESE ARE THE TWO MOST LIKELY
AREAS FOR MINOR FLOODING TODAY...WITH THE THREAT RAPIDLY DECREASING
ELSEWHERE. SINCE THERE ARE NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EVENTS AFTER
TODAY FOR AT LEAST A WEEK...THE MELT OF THE CURRENTLY-FALLING SNOW
SHOULD BE GRADUAL AND IS UNLIKELY TO POSE A FLOOD THREAT IN THE
COMING DAYS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ003>006-011-501>508.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ013-
     014-016-018.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ017.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ025>031-040-501-503>508.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ038-
     039-050>055-502.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ036-
     037-056-057.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ050>053-055-501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>532-535-
     536-538>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ533-534-537-
     543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/ADS
NEAR TERM...HTS/ADS
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...BAJ
AVIATION...HTS/BAJ/ADS
MARINE...ADS/BAJ
HYDROLOGY...JE




000
FXUS61 KLWX 051618
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1118 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THIS MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION CONTINUING UNTIL THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD FRIDAY...THEN SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 16Z...TRANSITION ZONE TO SNW NOW SITTING NEAR CHO-EZF-NHK.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A SWATH OF PCPN ACRS THE CWFA FM SW TO NE.
THIS ZONE CONNECTED TO A LONG STREAM OF MSTR...XTNDG BACK TO LA.
STRONG F-GEN CNVGNC RESIDES W/IN THIS ZONE...WHICH HV BEEN
ENHANCING SNOWFALL RATES. THERES ALSO A PERIOD OF GOOD DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH WITHIN APPROX THE SAME CORRIDOR. WE/RE RECEIVING
REPORTS W/ SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES/HR UNDER THIS BAND. AREA
AFFECTED INCL NWRN BURBS OF DC UP TO BALT CITY. HV ADDED HEAVY AT
TIMES WORDING TO GRIDS AND BUMPED UP SNOW TTLS BY AN INCH OR TWO
W/IN THIS CORRIDOR.

AS 12Z GDNC ARRIVES...FOCUSING PROGRESS OF BAND OF FGEN FORCING.
ALL SIGNALS STILL SUGGESTING THAT THE BAND WILL BE SINKING INTO
CENTRAL VA AND SRN MD TAFTN. HV ADJUSTED GRIDS ACCRDGLY.

ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL WIND DOWN DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HWVR...RRQ OF UPR JET WL ARRIVE AS MID-LVL FORCING DEPARTS.
THAT SUGGESTS THAT FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO THE EVNG. STILL HV
ACCUM SNOW /FRACTION OF AN INCH/ INTO ELY EVNG ACRS SRN MD. NO
ADDTL SNOWFALL XPCTD ELSW.

SKIES MAY ACTUALLY CLEAR FAIRLY QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AS THE DRY
ARCTIC AIRMASS PUSHES IN. SINGLE DIGIT LOWS WILL BE COMMON
TONIGHT...WITH TEENS EAST OF I-95 AND POSSIBLY BELOW ZERO IN THE
MOUNTAINS. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED IN THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS FOR READINGS BELOW -10F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVERHEAD FRIDAY WITH SUNNY AND TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS MID TO UPR 20S DUE TO LITTLE MIXING AND FRESH
SNOW.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. COLD AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING WITH MINIMA AROUND 10F
FOR MANY INTERIOR LOCATIONS...TEENS MORE LIKELY WHERE MIXING
PERSISTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD TROUGH CROSSES THE UPR MIDWEST TO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC
MONDAY...THOUGH IT APPEARS CLOUD COVER WOULD BE THE ONLY SENSIBLE
WEATHER. OTHERWISE...A WELCOME CALM WEATHER PATTERN WITH A WARMING
TREND. A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON MAX TEMPS EACH DAY IN SWLY FLOW...LOW
40S FOR SATURDAY...MID 40S N...MID 50S S MONDAY. 60S POSSIBLE SOUTH
OF DC TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS OR LOWER HAS COMMENCED AT ALL TERMINALS DUE TO A
BAND OF HEAVY SNOW. SN WILL LIGHTEN DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING DURING THE EVENING. VFR IS EXPECTED LATER
OVERNIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY N OR NW...SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD FRIDAY WITH VFR/TRANQUIL
CONDS. COLD AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE TEENS TO 10F.
SWLY FLOW AND MORE HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR ALL WATERS WITH N/NW WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KT AS
COLDER AIR MOVES IN. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SLEET AND SNOW FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY. PRECIP ENDS THIS EVENING BUT WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO GUST TO SCA LEVELS THURSDAY MORNING...WHEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN TAKE CONTROL.

SCA CONTINUES FOR SRN MD WATERS FRIDAY MORNING FOR NLY
CHANNELING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN
SETTLES OVER THE SERN STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LIGHT SWLY
FLOW EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ICE-INDUCED STREAM RISES HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. GUNPOWDER FALLS AT GLENCOE ROSE ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE OVERNIGHT DUE TO ICE EFFECTS AND REMAINS ABOVE FLOOD AT THIS
TIME. IT ALSO APPEARS EXTREMELY LIKELY THAT THERE IS AN ICE JAM ON
THE LOST/CACAPON RIVER IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA SINCE THE GAUGE AT
GREAT CACAPON HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE DESPITE THE RAIN.

WITH THE RAIN NOW CHANGING TO SNOW...THESE ARE THE TWO MOST LIKELY
AREAS FOR MINOR FLOODING TODAY...WITH THE THREAT RAPIDLY DECREASING
ELSEWHERE. SINCE THERE ARE NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EVENTS AFTER
TODAY FOR AT LEAST A WEEK...THE MELT OF THE CURRENTLY-FALLING SNOW
SHOULD BE GRADUAL AND IS UNLIKELY TO POSE A FLOOD THREAT IN THE
COMING DAYS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ003>006-011-501>508.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ013-
     014-016-018.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ017.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ025>031-040-501-503>508.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ038-
     039-050>055-502.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ036-
     037-056-057.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ050>053-055-501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>532-535-
     536-538>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ533-534-537-
     543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/ADS
NEAR TERM...HTS/ADS
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...BAJ
AVIATION...HTS/BAJ/ADS
MARINE...ADS/BAJ
HYDROLOGY...JE



000
FXUS61 KPHI 051531
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1031 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION TODAY AND THIS EVENING. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND THEN SINK TO THE SOUTHEAST ON
SATURDAY. A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS
NORTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BRIEFLY BY ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE
REGION ON MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN BUILD
INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SNOW IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION WITH AREAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NJ AND THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA CHANGING FROM SLEET AND RAIN TO SNOW
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW IS APPROACHING
THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE REGION. CAA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO
THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH A CONTINUING STREAM OF
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TODAY
ACROSS THE AREA AND ONLY A FEW ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH THE 9:30
AM UPDATE. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END VERY SLOWLY FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH HAVE ALSO BEEN
REPORTED IN SPOTS AND THESE WERE INCREASED WITH THE 9:30 AM
UPDATE.

ONTO SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE ADVISORY AREA A FEW INCHES HAVE ALREADY
FALLEN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WITH
TOTALS STILL LOOKING TO AVERAGE UNDER WARNING CRITERIA.

*WE UPGRADED THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND SURROUDING AREA TO A WINTER
 STORM WARNING WITH A 10:30 AM UPDATE. WE HAVE ALREADY GOTTEN
 REPORTS OF 3-5 INCHES WITH ANOTHER BAND OF MODERATE SNOW MOVING
 INTO THE AREA FOR THE LATE MORNING AREAS. NAM HAS AN ADDITIONAL.1-.25
 QPF WHICH WOULD PUSH TOTALS TO AROUND 6 INCHES OF SNOW.*


FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE PHILADELPHIA METRO AREA MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW BANDS HAVE SETUP ACROSS THIS REGION WITH REPORTS OF 1
TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES PER HOUR FOR SHORT INTERVALS. THE RAP AND
HRRR BOTH INDICATE THAT THESE MESOSCALE BANDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
PROGRESSIVE BUT CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. THESE BANDS ARE
CAUSED BY SIGNIFICANT FRONTGENETICAL FORCING AND AMPLE ISENTROPIC
LIFT. STORM TOTALS OF 6-8 INCHES STILL LOOK ON TRACK ATTM. ALSO
PLEASE REFER TO MCD 124 FROM THE SPC AND THE SPS WE HAVE IN
EFFECT.

IN THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHEAST NJ, THE 9:30 AM UPDATE SLOWS THE
CHANGEOVER AN HOUR OR SO. HOWEVER STILL DO NOT THINK THIS WILL CUT
INTO TOTALS EXTENSIVELY ATTM. THIS IS DUE TO THE SAME MESOSCALE
BANDING SIGNATURES SINKING FURTHER SOUTH FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THIS IS PICKED UP WELL BY THE RAP, HRRR AND 06Z 800-600 MB
FRONTGENETICAL FORCING ON THE 06Z NAM FROM EARLIER TODAY.
SNOWFALL MAY ALSO FALL AROUND AN INCH FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON
LEADING TO 4-8 INCHES OF SNOW BY EVENING.

ROAD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TODAY WITH THE SNOW,
ALLOW EXTRA TIME IF YOU HAVE TO TRAVEL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE LAST OF THE STEADY SNOWS WILL PASS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY EARLY THEN THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK
UP FROM N/W TO S/E OVERNIGHT. THE LACK OF CLOUDS LATE AND THE FRESH
SNOW COVER SHOULD PRODUCE COLD TEMPS OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND A FEW SUB-ZERO READINGS FAR NORTH. WIND CHILLS MAY
DROP TO NEAR -12 TO -15 ACROSS MOUNT POCONO...BUT REMAIN MORE LIKE 0
TO -10 ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NRLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED SLIGHTLY BETTER THERMALLY, BUT IT
WAS A COLD OP RUN IN COMPARISON TO ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND OTHER
MODELS. OVERALL AFTER TODAY, THE LONG TERM IS RELATIVELY QUIET
WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES AND NOT MUCH
PCPN EXPECTED.

A BRIGHT SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH NOT MUCH WIND. THE
ONE CATCH IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE, EVEN
IF IT WERE STILL JANUARY. MAX TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO THE FULL SUN
MACROS AND THE HIGHER NAM STAT GUIDANCE.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT WE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF GOING EITHER WITH THE LOWER
STAT GUIDANCE IN URBAN AREAS OR BELOW ALL FOR MINS GIVEN WE ARE
EXPECTING RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THERE IS A SHORT WAVE
TROF THAT MIGHT SPILL SOME CLOUDS THROUGH PART OF THE NIGHT, ONLY
REASON WE DID NOT GO EVEN LOWER.

SATURDAY THE AIR MASS RECOVERY WILL START AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
REACHES THE COAST. THERE SHOULD BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAA PHASE OF THE CLIPPER WHICH SHOULD SLOW TEMP RISE A
BIT. WE ARE CLOSER TO NAM STAT GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS AS BY NOW
THE GEFS MEAN IS WARMER THAN THE OP GFS.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT, CONTINUED WITH THE IDEA THAT THE WEAKENING
CLIPPER MIGHT BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR
CWA. PRECIPITATION INTENSITY AS OF NOW APPEARS LIGHT IF THEY MAKE
IT. SUNDAY, THE MODERATION TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE
CLIPPER`S DEMISE SHOULD NOT BRING ANY COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION.

A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT COULD BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK
INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND BY THEN IT MIGHT BE WARM ENOUGH FOR THE
PTYPE TO FALL AS RAIN. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEPARATE WITH ITS PREDICTED PCPN FOR NOW
REMAINING SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA.

THEN A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERING FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN
(INSTEAD OF TAKING THE POLAR ROUTE) FOR A CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO
BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL LEVELS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THIS MORNING WITH
CIGS/VSBYS IN THE IFR/LIFR RANGE IN SNOW. THE CHANGE- OVER WILL
OCCUR BY 15Z AT ACY WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING SNOW WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SOME LOWER VSBYS AROUND 1/4 MILE COULD BE OBSERVED AS
WELL LOCALLY FOR SHORT INTERVALS, WHICH WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS. ALSO, ISOLATED WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY BUT COVERAGE LOOKS LOW ENOUGH NOT TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE AFTER 20Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
AROUND 00-03Z AS CLOUDS CLEAR. RUNWAY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE TO LIKELY TODAY.


OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE, MAINLY NORTH ALONG
WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR, LOCALLY MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WE WILL KEEP THE SCA FLAG FOR TODAY...AND EXTEND THE EXPIRATION TIME
INTO TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS AS CAA
CONTINUES. IT APPEARS THAT GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KNT RANGE ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS AND AROUND 20 KTS ACROSS DEL BAY.
THERE WILL BE RAIN/SNOW EARLY TODAY...THEN SNOW INTO THE AFTERNOON.
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY, NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH ABOUT MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY OCCURRING ON
FRIDAY MORNING TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE OUTLOOKED TO PREVAIL MAINLY DUE A COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY
WEAK PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND ALSO WHERE THERE WILL BE STRONGER WINDS
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LEVEL, IT SHOULD BE AT TIMES WHEN THE
AIR TEMPS WILL BE HIGHER THAN THE WATER TEMPS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH THE TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW TODAY (IF NOT ALREADY), THE
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS AT LEAST IN THE NEAR TERM ARE LESSENING.
WE ARE STILL MONITORING GAGED SITES TO CHECK FOR JAMS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CLIMATE: WITH A SNOWCOVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING,
WE HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909


THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

ASIDE FROM ATLANTIC CITY, MOST LOCATIONS ARE FORECASTED TO BE
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-
     055.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ007>010-012>027.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GAINES/GIGI
MARINE...GIGI/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 051531
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1031 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION TODAY AND THIS EVENING. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND THEN SINK TO THE SOUTHEAST ON
SATURDAY. A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS
NORTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BRIEFLY BY ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE
REGION ON MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN BUILD
INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SNOW IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION WITH AREAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NJ AND THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA CHANGING FROM SLEET AND RAIN TO SNOW
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW IS APPROACHING
THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE REGION. CAA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO
THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH A CONTINUING STREAM OF
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TODAY
ACROSS THE AREA AND ONLY A FEW ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH THE 9:30
AM UPDATE. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END VERY SLOWLY FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH HAVE ALSO BEEN
REPORTED IN SPOTS AND THESE WERE INCREASED WITH THE 9:30 AM
UPDATE.

ONTO SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE ADVISORY AREA A FEW INCHES HAVE ALREADY
FALLEN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WITH
TOTALS STILL LOOKING TO AVERAGE UNDER WARNING CRITERIA.

*WE UPGRADED THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND SURROUDING AREA TO A WINTER
 STORM WARNING WITH A 10:30 AM UPDATE. WE HAVE ALREADY GOTTEN
 REPORTS OF 3-5 INCHES WITH ANOTHER BAND OF MODERATE SNOW MOVING
 INTO THE AREA FOR THE LATE MORNING AREAS. NAM HAS AN ADDITIONAL.1-.25
 QPF WHICH WOULD PUSH TOTALS TO AROUND 6 INCHES OF SNOW.*


FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE PHILADELPHIA METRO AREA MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW BANDS HAVE SETUP ACROSS THIS REGION WITH REPORTS OF 1
TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES PER HOUR FOR SHORT INTERVALS. THE RAP AND
HRRR BOTH INDICATE THAT THESE MESOSCALE BANDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
PROGRESSIVE BUT CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. THESE BANDS ARE
CAUSED BY SIGNIFICANT FRONTGENETICAL FORCING AND AMPLE ISENTROPIC
LIFT. STORM TOTALS OF 6-8 INCHES STILL LOOK ON TRACK ATTM. ALSO
PLEASE REFER TO MCD 124 FROM THE SPC AND THE SPS WE HAVE IN
EFFECT.

IN THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHEAST NJ, THE 9:30 AM UPDATE SLOWS THE
CHANGEOVER AN HOUR OR SO. HOWEVER STILL DO NOT THINK THIS WILL CUT
INTO TOTALS EXTENSIVELY ATTM. THIS IS DUE TO THE SAME MESOSCALE
BANDING SIGNATURES SINKING FURTHER SOUTH FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THIS IS PICKED UP WELL BY THE RAP, HRRR AND 06Z 800-600 MB
FRONTGENETICAL FORCING ON THE 06Z NAM FROM EARLIER TODAY.
SNOWFALL MAY ALSO FALL AROUND AN INCH FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON
LEADING TO 4-8 INCHES OF SNOW BY EVENING.

ROAD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TODAY WITH THE SNOW,
ALLOW EXTRA TIME IF YOU HAVE TO TRAVEL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE LAST OF THE STEADY SNOWS WILL PASS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY EARLY THEN THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK
UP FROM N/W TO S/E OVERNIGHT. THE LACK OF CLOUDS LATE AND THE FRESH
SNOW COVER SHOULD PRODUCE COLD TEMPS OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND A FEW SUB-ZERO READINGS FAR NORTH. WIND CHILLS MAY
DROP TO NEAR -12 TO -15 ACROSS MOUNT POCONO...BUT REMAIN MORE LIKE 0
TO -10 ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NRLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED SLIGHTLY BETTER THERMALLY, BUT IT
WAS A COLD OP RUN IN COMPARISON TO ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND OTHER
MODELS. OVERALL AFTER TODAY, THE LONG TERM IS RELATIVELY QUIET
WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES AND NOT MUCH
PCPN EXPECTED.

A BRIGHT SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH NOT MUCH WIND. THE
ONE CATCH IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE, EVEN
IF IT WERE STILL JANUARY. MAX TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO THE FULL SUN
MACROS AND THE HIGHER NAM STAT GUIDANCE.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT WE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF GOING EITHER WITH THE LOWER
STAT GUIDANCE IN URBAN AREAS OR BELOW ALL FOR MINS GIVEN WE ARE
EXPECTING RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THERE IS A SHORT WAVE
TROF THAT MIGHT SPILL SOME CLOUDS THROUGH PART OF THE NIGHT, ONLY
REASON WE DID NOT GO EVEN LOWER.

SATURDAY THE AIR MASS RECOVERY WILL START AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
REACHES THE COAST. THERE SHOULD BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAA PHASE OF THE CLIPPER WHICH SHOULD SLOW TEMP RISE A
BIT. WE ARE CLOSER TO NAM STAT GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS AS BY NOW
THE GEFS MEAN IS WARMER THAN THE OP GFS.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT, CONTINUED WITH THE IDEA THAT THE WEAKENING
CLIPPER MIGHT BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR
CWA. PRECIPITATION INTENSITY AS OF NOW APPEARS LIGHT IF THEY MAKE
IT. SUNDAY, THE MODERATION TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE
CLIPPER`S DEMISE SHOULD NOT BRING ANY COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION.

A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT COULD BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS BA