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000
FXUS61 KLWX 311237
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
837 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY. DEEP
LOW PRESSURE WILL DESCEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES...CROSSING THE
CAROLINAS SATURDAY BEFORE STRENGTHENING ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

W.V. STLT IMGRY SHOWS SHORT WV HAS PUSHED INTO WI. THIS WILL DIVE
TO SC AS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN UNDERGOES SUBSTANTIAL AMPLIFICATION
AND NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS PHASE OFFSHORE. SURFACE LOW IS WEAK AT
THIS TIME AND WILL LOSE DEFINITION AS ENERGY EVENTUALLY TRANSFERS
A COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON SATURDAY. WITH SUCH A
SOUTHWARD TRAJECTORY...FORCING WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE MOUNTAINS
FOR THE FIRST STAGE OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON THERE BUT MUCH OF CENTRAL MD AND VA WILL BE IN A
SQUEEZE PLAY UNTIL TONIGHT OR SATURDAY WHEN THE SYSTEM WINDS UP
AND BROAD SCALE LIFT WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AREA-WIDE.
HOWEVER...ANY HEAVIER PRECIPITATION FROM THE COASTAL LOW WILL
LIKELY REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

IN TERMS OF ANY SNOWFALL...AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY COLD ADVECTION
WILL BE VERY MINIMAL WITH THIS OCCLUDED SYSTEM. AN ANALYSIS OF
SOUNDINGS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESS SUGGEST THAT ANY SNOW WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE VERY HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF WV...AND MOSTLY AS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THAT. THE SNOW WILL BE FAVORED DURING DIURNAL
MINIMUMS IN TEMPERATURE AND ANY SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS TO NEAR 60 IN THE LOWLANDS. LOWS TONIGHT TEMPERED BY
CLOUD COVER IN RANGING FROM THE MID 30S HIGHLANDS TO MID 40S EAST.
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE ON SATURDAY AND WILL LIMIT HIGHS A BIT MORE THERE...WELL INTO
THE 40S. STILL NEAR 50 TO THE EAST. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS OFF THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

BY SAT NGT...S/WV ENERGY WUD HV SHIFTED OFF THE ATLC CST...INDUCING
CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE OFF CAPE HATTERAS. IN TERMS OF PCPN E OF THE
APLCHNS...THAT PRETTY MUCH WL MARK THE END...AS DRIER AIR WL WORK IN
ON THE NW SIDE OF THE CYCLONE. HV OPTED TO HOLD ONTO MORE CLDS THAN
GFS INDICATING...PARTLY DUE TO TIMING/UNCERTAINTY DIFFS AND THE
OTHER PART DUE TO LOW H5 HGTS/PVA STILL PIVOTING ACRS CWFA. WINDS
MAY BE THE BIGGEST IMPACT...BUT THE NOCTURNAL TIMING MAY PREVENT THE
FULL 30-40 KT AVBL H9-8 FM MIXING DOWN. WL BE KEEPING GUSTS 25-30
MPH.

ACRS THE MTNS...THE AMS WL BE COOLING SUFFICIENTLY FOR SOME SNOW.
HWVR...THE BEST DYNAMIC COOLING WL PASS S OF AREA. THIS LEAVES ONLY
A MARGINALLY FVRBL AMS W/ WARM GRND. HV TRIMMED SNW TTLS BACK A LTL.
WL KEEP HWO MENTION...AS ITS NOT OUT OF THE QSTN THAT ACCUMS
POTENTIALLY CUD YIELD AN ADVY. DECISIONS WL BE MADE AS EVENT NEARS.

H8-5 RDGG BLDS QUITE QUICKLY SUNDAY...SHUTTING OFF UPSLP SHSN.
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WL ERODE MOST OF THE CLDS DURING THE MRNG. THE INCRSG
SUBSIDENCE WL TAKE CARE OF THE MTNS BY MIDDAY. WL HV A TIGHT P-GRAD
OVER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...AND BETTER MIXING. GFS QUITE
ENTHUSIASTIC ON 35-40 KT WNDS. THAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT DO HV
30-35 MPH GUSTS IN GRIDS.

AM PRESERVING A GOOD AMT OF FCST CONTINUITY FOR TEMP FCSTS THRU THIS
PD. BIGGEST CHG COMES SAT NGT...AS THE STRONG GRADIENT SUGGESTS THAT
ANY TEMP LOSS WL PRIMARILY BE ADVECTIVE. THAT MEANS MIN-T IN THE 30S
AREAWIDE SAT NGT/SUN MRNG...AND TEMPS STRUGGLING TO REACH 50F SUN
AFTN.

RDGG BLDS OVER AREA SUN NGT...W/ ALL THE ASSOCD FEATURES-- CLR
SKIES/DCPLG WNDS/DEWPTS IN THE 20S. ITS LOOKING LIKE A HARD FREEZE
FOR MOST OF THE CWFA XCPT FOR THE URBAN DOWNTOWNS AND COMMUNITIES
NEAR THE BAY. THAT LIKELY WL MARK THE END OF THE GROWING SEASON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY
SOME DURING THE DAY BUT REMAIN A LITTLE ON THE CHILLY SIDE MONDAY
NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO GRADUALLY SLIDE INTO THE REGION AND BRING A
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS. PRECIP TIMING HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK TO
WED-WED NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT
BUT ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH MOST
OF THIS PERIOD. A VFR CEILING MAY BE PREVALENT WITH VERY FEW BREAKS
WITH THE APPRAOCHING SYSTEM.

AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY...NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH SHOWERS.

WINDS WL PROVIDE PRIMARY OP IMPACT SAT NGT-SUN...AS AN ELEVATED CORE
OF 40+ KT WNDS CROSS TERMINALS. THE LLJ WL RESIDE ABT 2K FT ABV SFC.
SHUD HV 25-30KT GUSTS IN NW FLOW AT GRND LVL...MAYBE A LTL HIER THAN
THAT SUN MRNG-MIDDAY. ANY CIGS WUD BE MVFR-VFR SAT NGT AND SHUD CLR
BY/SOON AFTR SUNRISE SUN MRNG.

VFR SUN AFTN INTO TUE.

&&

.MARINE...

EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS UNDER SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES WEST AND SOUTH OF
THE AREA. WITH THE STRENGTHENING LOW MOVING OFF THE COAST ON
SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL BE MET WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KT.

GRADIENT INCREASES SAT NGT. AM NOT CERTAIN IF GLW WL ENCOMPASS
ENTIRE MARINE AREA...BUT IT SHUD HIT A MAJORITY OF IT. SINCE THE GLW
WUD MEANS A HEADLINE RAMP-UP IN THE 4TH PD...HV OPTED TO NOT ISSUE
ATTM PER POLICY. NONETHELESS...THE OPEN WATERS OF THE MID BAY SHUD
EXPERIENCE 35-40 KT GUSTS. CONDS WUD CONT INTO SUN BEFORE THE
GRADIENT RELAXES AND WNDS SUBSIDE. SCA CONDS PROGGED TO HOLD ON THRU
SUN NGT PER CURRENT FCST.

AS HIPRES BLDS ELY NEXT WEEK...NO HAZARDS EXPECTED AT THAT TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY
MORNING AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. POSITIVE DEPARTURES UP TO A HALF FOOT ON THE
WATERS ATTM...AND THESE MAY INCREASE A LITTLE BIT MORE THROUGH
TONIGHT. TIDAL FLOODING ISSUES WOULD ONLY OCCUR IF DEPARTURES
EXCEEDED A FOOT. AT THIS POINT...SUSPECT THAT WONT HAPPEN.

BLOWOUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...HTS/ADS







  [top]

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 311057
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
657 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUICK UPDATE TO FCST TO INCRS CLDNS THIS MRNG ACRS CNTRL/ERN
PORTIONS OF FA.

PREV DISCUSSION...
EARLY MRNG SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED VERY WK HI PRES INVOF CNTRL
MTNS...W/ A LINGERING FNTL BNDRY OFF THE CST. ALSO...ONE S/W ALOFT
MOVING THROUGH THE LWR OH VLY...AND A 2ND (STRONGER) ONE DIVING SE
THROUGH THE WRN LAKES STATES.

TDA BEGINS CHILLY (XCP RIGHT AT THE IMMEDIATE CST IN SE VA/NE NC)
AND MNLY SKC (W/ EXCEPTION TO FAR NNW AND INVOF CSTL NE NC).
INITIAL S/W CARVES OUT TROUGH INTO INTERIOR SE CONUS STATES AND
AWAITS ARRIVAL OF THE 2ND S/W FM THE NNW. VERY WK SFC HI PRES RMNS
IN PLACE LONG ENOUGH FOR A MNLY DRY DAY ACRS THE FA. WK SFC LO
PRES DEVELOPS INVOF STALLED FNT OFF THE SE CONUS CST THIS MRNG
WHICH LIFTS TO THE NE THROUGH THE AFTN. COMBO OF SYS E AND W OF
THE FA WILL RESULT IN VRB CLDS TO PCLDY CONDS MOST PLACES THIS
AFTN. WILL HAVE SLGT CHC TO LO END CHC POPS RIGHT ALG THE
IMMEDIATE CST IN SE VA/NE NC THIS AFTN AS THE SFC LO TRACKS OFF
THE CST. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S NNW TO 60 TO 65F ELSW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG S/W WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH FROM THE TN VALLEY ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH TNGT...THEN THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON SAT. CONTD
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT DEPICTING UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER THE
CAROLINAS MIDDAY SAT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SPIN-UP SECONDARY
CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE OF THE NC COAST SAT AFTN/EVE...BEFORE
QUICKLY EJECTING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE SAT NGT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. COOL 1030+MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE EAST FROM
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

00Z/31 SUITE OF MODELS RMN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT RAIN WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE TNGT THROUGH SATURDAY. BREEZY OVERALL
ON SATURDAY...WITH BEST SURGE OF CAA LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL SAT
NGT. GIVEN FCST OF HOW FAR S UPR LVL SYS TRACKS...MOST SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS (BOTH WND AND RA) APR TO BE OVER FOR ERN/SERN CSTL
LOCATIONS (PRIMARILY) FM MIDDAY SAT INTO EARLY SAT EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY, A PERIOD OF STRONG NNE WNDS (35-45 MPH) EXPECTED
ALONG COASTAL ZONES W/AREAS OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE ATLC
BEACHES AND LWR CHES BAY (SEE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BLO). WILL
CONT TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN HWO. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED OVER AT LEAST SOME OF OUR COASTAL ZONES SAT NGT FOR A 6-10
HOUR PERIOD IF CURRENT FORECAST RATIONALE PANS OUT.

PCPN WILL TAPER OFF SAT NGT W/ SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING WAVE...AND SKY CLEARS OUT QUICKLY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS
SURFACE HIGH OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SINKS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE SOUTHEAST BEGINNING SUNDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN THE COOLEST AIR
OF THE SEASON TO DATE.

WRT QPF...MOST INLAND PLACES MAY HAVE AVG AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.25
IN...W/ HIGHER AMOUNTS (TO 0.50 TO PSBLY 0.75 IN) MNLY CONFINED TO
CLOSE TO THE CST.

FOR TEMPERATURES...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND INCREASING RAIN CHCS
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR MOST ON SATURDAY...THOUGH TEMPS MAY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 40S WELL INLAND. WELL MIXED ATMOS/BREEZY-
WINDY CONDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT STILL CHILLY WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 30S INLAND TO
LOW 40S ALONG THE COAST. DESPITE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...ONGOING LO
LVL CAA WILL KEEP HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 50S...OR ROUGHLY -1 TO -1.5
STD DEV FROM CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. BY
MONDAY MORNING LOWS SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 30-32 FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA (UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN FAVORED COLD SPOTS)...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER VALUES (35-40) FOR FAR SE PORTIONS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS FALL ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. A SLOW MODERATING TREND IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM 55-60...WITH MID/UPPER 60S POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER COOL TUESDAY MORNING
RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 30S INTERIOR TO LOW 40S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS. LOWS SHOULD MODERATE INTO THE MID 40S/LOW 50S WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH THE HIGH WELL OFFSHORE AND THE RESUMPTION OF SSW FLOW.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND TRACKS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME MOISTURE APPEARS RATHER LIMITED WITH
THIS FRONT...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS ARE INCLUDED AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH DISSIPATES OVER THE
REGION THIS AFTN WHILE SETTING UP A WEAK WEDGE THAT...DUE TO THE
RESULTING NE FLOW...MAY CAUSE SOME MVFR CEILINGS TO OCCUR AT
KORF/KPHF/KECG THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO TODAY...A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A FEW
SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE NE NC/SE VA COAST...BUT RAIN CHANCES ARE
TOO LOW ATTM TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OH AND THEN TN
RIVER VALLEYS INTO SAT. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP FORM A STRONG
COASTAL SYSTEM OFF THE OUTER BANKS LATE SAT INTO SUN. AS THIS
SYSTEM DEEPENS AND MOVES OFF THE COAST...20-30 KT N WINDS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WATCHES SAT NGT HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO WARNINGS FOLLOWING
INCREASED CONFIDENCE AND COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. FOR
TDA...NE WINDS UP TO ~15 KT EXPECTED AS LO PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE SE
CST. THOUGH NOT LIKELY...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
SCA CONDITIONS OVR THE BAY. WINDS BCM NLY TNGT WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS
AS THE LO PASSES OFFSHORE AND ANOTHER LO PRES CENTER DEVELOPS NEAR
THE NC/SC CST. ON SAT...WINDS/WAVES/SEAS INCREASE AS THAT SECOND
AREA OF LO PRES STRENGTHENS OFF THE NC CST IN RESPONSE TO A VERY
POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF. MAINTAINED THE SCA OVR NRN CSTL
WTRS BEFORE THE GALE AS A PERIOD OF 5 FT SEAS IS EXPECTED
THERE...WHILE CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE WILL RAMP UP FAST ENUF TO JUST
WARRANT A GALE HEADLINE. CONDITIONS OVR THE RIVERS OTHER THAN THE
LWR JAMES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY SUB-GALE SO A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED
THERE. BRIEF WINDS CLOSE TO STORM FORCE ARE PSBL OVR SRN CSTL
WTRS...BUT WITH THE SPEED AND TRACK OF THE SFC LO...EXPECT WINDS TO
STAY MAINLY IN THE GALE RANGE. STRONGEST WINDS OVR THE
BAY/SOUND/CSTL WTRS (30-40 KT SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 40-45 KT) WILL
OCCUR SAT NGT...AND SLOWLY DIMINISH ON SUN AS THE LO PULLS WELL NE
OF THE AREA. EXPECT 4-6 FT WAVES OVR THE BAY AND SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS
UP TO 10-12 FT. HI PRES BLDS OVR THE AREA SUN NGT AND MON AND THEN
SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE ERLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...WITH SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN OFF THE COAST LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 1-1.5 FT
ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
AND LOWER BAY. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR THESE LOCATIONS
IF THE SURGE COINCIDES WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM EDT SATURDAY TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ635>637.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM EDT SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ630>634-638.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM EDT SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/MAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 311054
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
654 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MRNG SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED VERY WK HI PRES INVOF CNTRL
MTNS...W/ A LINGERING FNTL BNDRY OFF THE CST. ALSO...ONE S/W ALOFT
MOVING THROUGH THE LWR OH VLY...AND A 2ND (STRONGER) ONE DIVING SE
THROUGH THE WRN LAKES STATES.

TDA BEGINS CHILLY (XCP RIGHT AT THE IMMEDIATE CST IN SE VA/NE NC)
AND MNLY SKC (W/ EXCEPTION TO FAR NNW AND INVOF CSTL NE NC).
INITIAL S/W CARVES OUT TROUGH INTO INTERIOR SE CONUS STATES AND
AWAITS ARRIVAL OF THE 2ND S/W FM THE NNW. VERY WK SFC HI PRES RMNS
IN PLACE LONG ENOUGH FOR A MNLY DRY DAY ACRS THE FA. WK SFC LO
PRES DEVELOPS INVOF STALLED FNT OFF THE SE CONUS CST THIS MRNG
WHICH LIFTS TO THE NE THROUGH THE AFTN. COMBO OF SYS E AND W OF
THE FA WILL RESULT IN VRB CLDS TO PCLDY CONDS MOST PLACES THIS
AFTN. WILL HAVE SLGT CHC TO LO END CHC POPS RIGHT ALG THE
IMMEDIATE CST IN SE VA/NE NC THIS AFTN AS THE SFC LO TRACKS OFF
THE CST. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S NNW TO 60 TO 65F ELSW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG S/W WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH FROM THE TN VALLEY ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH TNGT...THEN THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON SAT. CONTD
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT DEPICTING UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER THE
CAROLINAS MIDDAY SAT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SPIN-UP SECONDARY
CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE OF THE NC COAST SAT AFTN/EVE...BEFORE
QUICKLY EJECTING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE SAT NGT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. COOL 1030+MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE EAST FROM
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

00Z/31 SUITE OF MODELS RMN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT RAIN WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE TNGT THROUGH SATURDAY. BREEZY OVERALL
ON SATURDAY...WITH BEST SURGE OF CAA LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL SAT
NGT. GIVEN FCST OF HOW FAR S UPR LVL SYS TRACKS...MOST SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS (BOTH WND AND RA) APR TO BE OVER FOR ERN/SERN CSTL
LOCATIONS (PRIMARILY) FM MIDDAY SAT INTO EARLY SAT EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY, A PERIOD OF STRONG NNE WNDS (35-45 MPH) EXPECTED
ALONG COASTAL ZONES W/AREAS OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE ATLC
BEACHES AND LWR CHES BAY (SEE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BLO). WILL
CONT TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN HWO. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED OVER AT LEAST SOME OF OUR COASTAL ZONES SAT NGT FOR A 6-10
HOUR PERIOD IF CURRENT FORECAST RATIONALE PANS OUT.

PCPN WILL TAPER OFF SAT NGT W/ SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING WAVE...AND SKY CLEARS OUT QUICKLY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS
SURFACE HIGH OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SINKS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE SOUTHEAST BEGINNING SUNDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN THE COOLEST AIR
OF THE SEASON TO DATE.

WRT QPF...MOST INLAND PLACES MAY HAVE AVG AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.25
IN...W/ HIGHER AMOUNTS (TO 0.50 TO PSBLY 0.75 IN) MNLY CONFINED TO
CLOSE TO THE CST.

FOR TEMPERATURES...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND INCREASING RAIN CHCS
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR MOST ON SATURDAY...THOUGH TEMPS MAY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 40S WELL INLAND. WELL MIXED ATMOS/BREEZY-
WINDY CONDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT STILL CHILLY WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 30S INLAND TO
LOW 40S ALONG THE COAST. DESPITE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...ONGOING LO
LVL CAA WILL KEEP HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 50S...OR ROUGHLY -1 TO -1.5
STD DEV FROM CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. BY
MONDAY MORNING LOWS SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 30-32 FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA (UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN FAVORED COLD SPOTS)...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER VALUES (35-40) FOR FAR SE PORTIONS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS FALL ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. A SLOW MODERATING TREND IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM 55-60...WITH MID/UPPER 60S POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER COOL TUESDAY MORNING
RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 30S INTERIOR TO LOW 40S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS. LOWS SHOULD MODERATE INTO THE MID 40S/LOW 50S WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH THE HIGH WELL OFFSHORE AND THE RESUMPTION OF SSW FLOW.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND TRACKS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME MOISTURE APPEARS RATHER LIMITED WITH
THIS FRONT...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS ARE INCLUDED AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH DISSIPATES OVER THE
REGION THIS AFTN WHILE SETTING UP A WEAK WEDGE THAT...DUE TO THE
RESULTING NE FLOW...MAY CAUSE SOME MVFR CEILINGS TO OCCUR AT
KORF/KPHF/KECG THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO TODAY...A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A FEW
SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE NE NC/SE VA COAST...BUT RAIN CHANCES ARE
TOO LOW ATTM TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OH AND THEN TN
RIVER VALLEYS INTO SAT. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP FORM A STRONG
COASTAL SYSTEM OFF THE OUTER BANKS LATE SAT INTO SUN. AS THIS
SYSTEM DEEPENS AND MOVES OFF THE COAST...20-30 KT N WINDS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WATCHES SAT NGT HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO WARNINGS FOLLOWING
INCREASED CONFIDENCE AND COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. FOR
TDA...NE WINDS UP TO ~15 KT EXPECTED AS LO PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE SE
CST. THOUGH NOT LIKELY...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
SCA CONDITIONS OVR THE BAY. WINDS BCM NLY TNGT WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS
AS THE LO PASSES OFFSHORE AND ANOTHER LO PRES CENTER DEVELOPS NEAR
THE NC/SC CST. ON SAT...WINDS/WAVES/SEAS INCREASE AS THAT SECOND
AREA OF LO PRES STRENGTHENS OFF THE NC CST IN RESPONSE TO A VERY
POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF. MAINTAINED THE SCA OVR NRN CSTL
WTRS BEFORE THE GALE AS A PERIOD OF 5 FT SEAS IS EXPECTED
THERE...WHILE CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE WILL RAMP UP FAST ENUF TO JUST
WARRANT A GALE HEADLINE. CONDITIONS OVR THE RIVERS OTHER THAN THE
LWR JAMES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY SUB-GALE SO A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED
THERE. BRIEF WINDS CLOSE TO STORM FORCE ARE PSBL OVR SRN CSTL
WTRS...BUT WITH THE SPEED AND TRACK OF THE SFC LO...EXPECT WINDS TO
STAY MAINLY IN THE GALE RANGE. STRONGEST WINDS OVR THE
BAY/SOUND/CSTL WTRS (30-40 KT SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 40-45 KT) WILL
OCCUR SAT NGT...AND SLOWLY DIMINISH ON SUN AS THE LO PULLS WELL NE
OF THE AREA. EXPECT 4-6 FT WAVES OVR THE BAY AND SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS
UP TO 10-12 FT. HI PRES BLDS OVR THE AREA SUN NGT AND MON AND THEN
SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE ERLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...WITH SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN OFF THE COAST LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 1-1.5 FT
ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
AND LOWER BAY. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR THESE LOCATIONS
IF THE SURGE COINCIDES WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM EDT SATURDAY TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ635>637.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM EDT SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ630>634-638.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM EDT SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/MAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 311054
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
654 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MRNG SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED VERY WK HI PRES INVOF CNTRL
MTNS...W/ A LINGERING FNTL BNDRY OFF THE CST. ALSO...ONE S/W ALOFT
MOVING THROUGH THE LWR OH VLY...AND A 2ND (STRONGER) ONE DIVING SE
THROUGH THE WRN LAKES STATES.

TDA BEGINS CHILLY (XCP RIGHT AT THE IMMEDIATE CST IN SE VA/NE NC)
AND MNLY SKC (W/ EXCEPTION TO FAR NNW AND INVOF CSTL NE NC).
INITIAL S/W CARVES OUT TROUGH INTO INTERIOR SE CONUS STATES AND
AWAITS ARRIVAL OF THE 2ND S/W FM THE NNW. VERY WK SFC HI PRES RMNS
IN PLACE LONG ENOUGH FOR A MNLY DRY DAY ACRS THE FA. WK SFC LO
PRES DEVELOPS INVOF STALLED FNT OFF THE SE CONUS CST THIS MRNG
WHICH LIFTS TO THE NE THROUGH THE AFTN. COMBO OF SYS E AND W OF
THE FA WILL RESULT IN VRB CLDS TO PCLDY CONDS MOST PLACES THIS
AFTN. WILL HAVE SLGT CHC TO LO END CHC POPS RIGHT ALG THE
IMMEDIATE CST IN SE VA/NE NC THIS AFTN AS THE SFC LO TRACKS OFF
THE CST. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S NNW TO 60 TO 65F ELSW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG S/W WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH FROM THE TN VALLEY ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH TNGT...THEN THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON SAT. CONTD
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT DEPICTING UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER THE
CAROLINAS MIDDAY SAT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SPIN-UP SECONDARY
CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE OF THE NC COAST SAT AFTN/EVE...BEFORE
QUICKLY EJECTING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE SAT NGT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. COOL 1030+MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE EAST FROM
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

00Z/31 SUITE OF MODELS RMN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT RAIN WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE TNGT THROUGH SATURDAY. BREEZY OVERALL
ON SATURDAY...WITH BEST SURGE OF CAA LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL SAT
NGT. GIVEN FCST OF HOW FAR S UPR LVL SYS TRACKS...MOST SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS (BOTH WND AND RA) APR TO BE OVER FOR ERN/SERN CSTL
LOCATIONS (PRIMARILY) FM MIDDAY SAT INTO EARLY SAT EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY, A PERIOD OF STRONG NNE WNDS (35-45 MPH) EXPECTED
ALONG COASTAL ZONES W/AREAS OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE ATLC
BEACHES AND LWR CHES BAY (SEE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BLO). WILL
CONT TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN HWO. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED OVER AT LEAST SOME OF OUR COASTAL ZONES SAT NGT FOR A 6-10
HOUR PERIOD IF CURRENT FORECAST RATIONALE PANS OUT.

PCPN WILL TAPER OFF SAT NGT W/ SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING WAVE...AND SKY CLEARS OUT QUICKLY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS
SURFACE HIGH OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SINKS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE SOUTHEAST BEGINNING SUNDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN THE COOLEST AIR
OF THE SEASON TO DATE.

WRT QPF...MOST INLAND PLACES MAY HAVE AVG AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.25
IN...W/ HIGHER AMOUNTS (TO 0.50 TO PSBLY 0.75 IN) MNLY CONFINED TO
CLOSE TO THE CST.

FOR TEMPERATURES...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND INCREASING RAIN CHCS
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR MOST ON SATURDAY...THOUGH TEMPS MAY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 40S WELL INLAND. WELL MIXED ATMOS/BREEZY-
WINDY CONDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT STILL CHILLY WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 30S INLAND TO
LOW 40S ALONG THE COAST. DESPITE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...ONGOING LO
LVL CAA WILL KEEP HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 50S...OR ROUGHLY -1 TO -1.5
STD DEV FROM CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. BY
MONDAY MORNING LOWS SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 30-32 FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA (UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN FAVORED COLD SPOTS)...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER VALUES (35-40) FOR FAR SE PORTIONS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS FALL ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. A SLOW MODERATING TREND IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM 55-60...WITH MID/UPPER 60S POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER COOL TUESDAY MORNING
RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 30S INTERIOR TO LOW 40S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS. LOWS SHOULD MODERATE INTO THE MID 40S/LOW 50S WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH THE HIGH WELL OFFSHORE AND THE RESUMPTION OF SSW FLOW.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND TRACKS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME MOISTURE APPEARS RATHER LIMITED WITH
THIS FRONT...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS ARE INCLUDED AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH DISSIPATES OVER THE
REGION THIS AFTN WHILE SETTING UP A WEAK WEDGE THAT...DUE TO THE
RESULTING NE FLOW...MAY CAUSE SOME MVFR CEILINGS TO OCCUR AT
KORF/KPHF/KECG THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO TODAY...A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A FEW
SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE NE NC/SE VA COAST...BUT RAIN CHANCES ARE
TOO LOW ATTM TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OH AND THEN TN
RIVER VALLEYS INTO SAT. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP FORM A STRONG
COASTAL SYSTEM OFF THE OUTER BANKS LATE SAT INTO SUN. AS THIS
SYSTEM DEEPENS AND MOVES OFF THE COAST...20-30 KT N WINDS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WATCHES SAT NGT HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO WARNINGS FOLLOWING
INCREASED CONFIDENCE AND COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. FOR
TDA...NE WINDS UP TO ~15 KT EXPECTED AS LO PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE SE
CST. THOUGH NOT LIKELY...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
SCA CONDITIONS OVR THE BAY. WINDS BCM NLY TNGT WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS
AS THE LO PASSES OFFSHORE AND ANOTHER LO PRES CENTER DEVELOPS NEAR
THE NC/SC CST. ON SAT...WINDS/WAVES/SEAS INCREASE AS THAT SECOND
AREA OF LO PRES STRENGTHENS OFF THE NC CST IN RESPONSE TO A VERY
POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF. MAINTAINED THE SCA OVR NRN CSTL
WTRS BEFORE THE GALE AS A PERIOD OF 5 FT SEAS IS EXPECTED
THERE...WHILE CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE WILL RAMP UP FAST ENUF TO JUST
WARRANT A GALE HEADLINE. CONDITIONS OVR THE RIVERS OTHER THAN THE
LWR JAMES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY SUB-GALE SO A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED
THERE. BRIEF WINDS CLOSE TO STORM FORCE ARE PSBL OVR SRN CSTL
WTRS...BUT WITH THE SPEED AND TRACK OF THE SFC LO...EXPECT WINDS TO
STAY MAINLY IN THE GALE RANGE. STRONGEST WINDS OVR THE
BAY/SOUND/CSTL WTRS (30-40 KT SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 40-45 KT) WILL
OCCUR SAT NGT...AND SLOWLY DIMINISH ON SUN AS THE LO PULLS WELL NE
OF THE AREA. EXPECT 4-6 FT WAVES OVR THE BAY AND SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS
UP TO 10-12 FT. HI PRES BLDS OVR THE AREA SUN NGT AND MON AND THEN
SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE ERLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...WITH SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN OFF THE COAST LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 1-1.5 FT
ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
AND LOWER BAY. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR THESE LOCATIONS
IF THE SURGE COINCIDES WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM EDT SATURDAY TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ635>637.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM EDT SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ630>634-638.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM EDT SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/MAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...








  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPHI 311022
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
622 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DIG SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY, EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH AN OFF SHORE LOW TOMORROW.
THAT STORM MOVES TO THE MARITIMES SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO
THE CAROLINAS EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN SLIPS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN OVERALL QUIET DAY TODAY BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY, WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS. OUR AREA WILL
BE BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS, SO WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE DAY ALTHOUGH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED.
THERE WILL BE SOME SUN TO START THE DAY FOR MANY AREAS AS IT IS
MOSTLY CLEAR FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA THIS MORNING, BUT WE
EXPECT CLOUDS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH MIDDAY, THEN AS
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES SHOULD LEVEL OFF. HIGHS WERE A BLEND OF
MAV/MET MOS AND BLENDED ECMWF 925MB TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE LOW MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL WEAKEN AND COMBINE
WITH YET ANOTHER LOW SOUTH OF OUR AREA TONIGHT, WHILE THE INITIAL
COASTAL LOW STRENGTHENS AND BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD. AS THIS LOW
BEGINS DRIFTING NORTHWARD, SEVERAL VORTICITY IMPULSES ALOFT AND
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND SWING ACROSS
OUR AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO RAINFALL DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST OVERNIGHT THAT SHOULD SWING ACROSS OUR AREA, GENERALLY AROUND
OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BY SATURDAY THE SURFACE LOW (BY THIS POINT THE CONTENTION LOW AND
OFF SHORE LOW HAVE MERGED) BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST, AS THE CUTOFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO TRUDGE EASTWARD. THE MAIN IMPACTS
WE`LL BE WATCHING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PRECIP, TEMPS, COASTAL
FLOODING (SEE SECTION BELOW) AND WINDS:

WINDS WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN STORY BOTH ON LAND AND MARINE. THE
MARINE CONCERNS ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. AS FOR WIND ON LAND, CONTINUE
TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR WIND ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY NEARER THE COAST. HOWEVER, THERE ARE A FEW
THINGS LIMITING THE WIND. FIRST, THE TIGHTEST SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND GREATEST MID LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT ARE NOT JUXTAPOSED
EITHER TEMPORALLY OR GEOGRAPHICALLY. THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY, HOWEVER AT THIS TIME THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE BISECTING THE REGION. ALSO A
MID LEVEL INVERSION WILL LIMIT MIXING. INSTEAD, THE STRONGEST
WINDS LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING WHEN THE
TIGHTEST MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE
REGION. ALSO, 6 HR PRESSURE RISES THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE FORECAST
TO BE BETWEEN 2 AND 6 MB, WHILE NOT NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE AS THE
10MB PLUS PRESSURE RISES WELL OFF THE COAST THAT THE MODELS SHOW,
IT COULD BE ENOUGH FOR A SMALL COMPONENT OF AN ISALLOBARIC WIND.
HAVING SAID ALL THAT HOWEVER, BASED ON LOCAL HIGH WIND GUIDANCE WE
STILL APPEAR TO BE ON THE LOWER END OF A WIND ADVISORY THREAT EVEN
ALONG THE COAST. THEREFORE, WILL JUST KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO AT
THIS TIME.

TEMPS...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES BY
SUNDAY SHOULD BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE COLDEST
WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING WINDS AND
CLEARING SKIES. STILL EXPECTING THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION TO
BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, AS MENTIONED BY
THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, THE FALL FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM ENDS NOV. 1 AS
WE ARE PAST THE MEAN FIRST FREEZE DATE.

PRECIP...MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT OF THE TIMING OF THE
PRECIP, WHICH WILL MAINLY BE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, WITH SOME
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THROUGH THIS PERIOD, ALL OF THE
REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING, SO PRECIP TYPE IS
EXPECTED TO BE RAIN. FROM THE MODEL SOUNDINGS, THE MELTING LAYER
THROUGH THIS PERIOD IS FORECAST TO BE AT OR ABOVE 4000 FT AGL.
WITH SUCH A DEEP WARM LAYER, EVEN FLURRIES ARE VERY UNLIKELY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH BUILDS NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES OVER THE REGION. STILL EXPECT A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THIS PERIOD DUE TO BOTH AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND
INCREASING THICKNESSES. HOWEVER, INTERESTINGLY, THE GFS IS NOW
SHOWING A MUCH MORE DRAMATIC WARMING TREND THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUNS, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S POSSIBLE
BY TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IF THE
COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WILL STALL WEST OF THE
REGION UNTIL LATE THURSDAY WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SE
TOWARD THE REGION. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL DIFFERENCES
HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY, ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY IN BETWEEN TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS, ONE TO
OUR WEST AND ONE TO OUR SOUTH. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND LOWER
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TO SPREAD TO ALL TAF SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT, WITH THE POSSIBILITY
FOR SOME IFR, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. RAINFALL WILL ALSO
BEGIN TO SPREAD FROM EAST TO WEST OVERNIGHT AND TOWARD DAYBREAK
SATURDAY.

MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE NORTH TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WIND WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND TOWARD DAYBREAK
SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH GUSTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL AROUND OR
AFTER AFTER DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. LOCALIZED IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST INCLUDING KACY
AND KMIV.  BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM
WEST TO EAST. BREEZY NORTHERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO MOST OF
TONIGHT, BEFORE AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS TOWARD DAYBREAK. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS MAY BEGIN AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY, BUT
SINCE WE`VE ISSUED A GALE WARNING IN THE SUBSEQUENT PERIODS, THE
ADVISORY HAS BEEN REMOVED.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY WITH PEAK GUSTS NEAR 45 KT.
SEAS AS HIGH AS 10FT POSSIBLE ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS. ON THE UPPER
DELAWARE BAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS EXPECTED PRIMARILY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

MONDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN ONSHORE COMPONENT OF THE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WATER LEVELS THIS WEEKEND. MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING MAY OCCUR WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE ON SATURDAY. IT
IS POSSIBLE BUT VERY UNLIKELY TO ALSO OCCUR WITH THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM EDT SATURDAY TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310844
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
444 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS OUR AREA DOMINATED BY MID-LEVEL
STRATOCU EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ARE
BEGINNING TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF A STOUT COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
POSITIONED THROUGH THE LOWER MI THROUGH IN/IL.

AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
FURTHER...HOWEVER DRY AIR ABOVE THE INVERSION EVIDENT AT H8 ON THE
00Z SOUNDING WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD
ULTIMATELY DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING NEAR MIDDAY.
EVEN AS THE COLUMN SATURATES...MOST OF THE DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL TO
OUR WEST ASSOCIATED WITH VIGOROUS UPPER LOW. BESIDES FOR A FEW WEAK
WAVES AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW...A LACK OF WELL DEFINED ASCENT
CO-LOCATED WITH THE MOISTURE IS NOTED. AS A RESULT...EXPECTING A
HIGH POP/LOW QPF SCENARIO TO PLAY OUT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY.

THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL VORT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH MN/IA CURRENTLY
WILL BE AGGRESSIVELY AMPLIFYING THE UPPER TROF THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. BY THIS EVENING THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO CUT-OFF...AND
WILL SHOOT DIRECTLY SOUTH THROUGH THE TN VALLEY WELL TO OUR SSW. AS THIS
OCCURS THE COLDEST AIR WILL WRAP IN BEHIND THE LOW REMAINING SOUTH
OF THE CWA AS WELL. AGAIN...THE BEST DYNAMICS AND THUS THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL STAY NEAR THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES
INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE BUT WEAK
FORCING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WILL ONCE AGAIN YIELD A HIGH POP/LOW QPF
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY DROP INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 30S FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SAT MORNING. SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE RIDGES COULD FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING MARK. WITH H85
TEMPS PROGGED TO GET TO ONLY -1 OR -2C...HAVE CONTINUED TO BACK OFF
SNOW POTENTIAL THROUGH 12Z SAT MORNING.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LOW WILL BE HEADING OFFSHORE OF THE
CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY...WHERE AN OFFCOAST LOW WILL THEN BEGIN TO
DEVELOP.  PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO START ACROSS THE CWA...ALTHOUGH
DEPTH WILL BE STEADILY DECREASING WITH TIME DURING THE DAY.  WITH
THIS...PLUS THE STEADY LOSS OF FORCING/UVV...ALLOW POPS TO SLOWLY
DROP OFF.  KEPT VALUES A BIT HIGHER IN THE NORTH WITH POSSIBLE LAKE
INFLUENCE.  NNE FLOW WILL SLOWLY PUSH COLDER H9850 AIR IN...WITH -3
TO -5 READINGS BY 00Z SUN.  HOWEVER...LOOKS LIKE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW IN MOST CASES DURING THE DAY.  BY LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON...COLDER AIR WILL START TO COLLAPSE IN AND BEGIN
THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION GOING OVER
TO ALL SNOW AT NIGHT.  MOST AREAS WILL NOT SEE ANY ACCUMULATION. A
VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATION REMAINS POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES
ON GRASSY SURFACES SATURDAY NIGHT AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO WIND
DOWN.  A SLIGHTLY FAVORABLE NNW UPSLOPE COMPONENT MAY DEVELOP
SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING SHSN TO LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING BY THAT POINT.

THE DEEP TROUGH PULLS EAST SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SKIES CLEARING AS A
MIDLEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO APPROACH.  SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR AND COLD AS THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS BY TO OUR SOUTH.  MID/HI
CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SPILLING OVER
THE RIDGE AXIS.

MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SAT/SUN WILL MODERATE ON MONDAY...BUT
WILL STILL BE A BIT BELOW CLIMATOLOGY. CL

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD...WHICH BECOMES MORE DEPENDENT
ON ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WITH TIME.  AFTER THE RIDGE DEPARTS
TUESDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
A COUPLE OF FRONTS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.  A FRESH
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING BY FRIDAY BUT WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AS WELL. CL

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRATOCU DECK WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH VFR AND OCCASIONAL
HIGH END MVFR CEILINGS. CALM TO LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES MIDDAY FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITATION. LOWERED
VISIBILITY AT ONSET OF RAIN BUT MAINTAINED WITHIN MVFR CATEGORY
THROUGH ABOUT 00Z SAT. CIGS WILL STAY INTO MVFR AND COULD EASILY DROP
INTO IFR CATEGORY SAT MORNING AS THE LOW POSITIONS ITSELF NEARLY
OVERHEAD.


OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPSLOPING COLD ADVCTN WL THEN MAINTAIN SHWR AND STRATOCU POTENTIAL
UNTIL SFC HIGH STRENGTHENS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310818
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
418 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS OUR AREA DOMINATED BY MID-LEVEL
STRATOCU EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ARE
BEGINNING TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF A STOUT COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
POSITIONED THROUGH THE LOWER MI THROUGH IN/IL.

AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
FURTHER...HOWEVER DRY AIR ABOVE THE INVERSION EVIDENT AT H8 ON THE
00Z SOUNDING WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD
ULTIMATELY DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING NEAR MIDDAY.
EVEN AS THE COLUMN SATURATES...MOST OF THE DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL TO
OUR WEST ASSOCIATED WITH VIGOROUS UPPER LOW. BESIDES FOR A FEW WEAK
WAVES AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW...A LACK OF WELL DEFINED ASCENT
CO-LOCATED WITH THE MOISTURE IS NOTED. AS A RESULT...EXPECTING A
HIGH POP/LOW QPF SCENARIO TO PLAY OUT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY.

THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL VORT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH MN/IA CURRENTLY
WILL BE AGGRESSIVELY AMPLIFYING THE UPPER TROF THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. BY THIS EVENING THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO CUT-OFF...AND
WILL SHOOT DIRECTLY SOUTH THROUGH THE TN VALLEY WELL TO OUR SSW. AS THIS
OCCURS THE COLDEST AIR WILL WRAP IN BEHIND THE LOW REMAINING SOUTH
OF THE CWA AS WELL. AGAIN...THE BEST DYNAMICS AND THUS THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL STAY NEAR THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES
INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE BUT WEAK
FORCING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WILL ONCE AGAIN YIELD A HIGH POP/LOW QPF
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY DROP INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 30S FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SAT MORNING. SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE RIDGES COULD FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING MARK. WITH H85
TEMPS PROGGED TO GET TO ONLY -1 OR -2C...HAVE CONTINUED TO BACK OFF
SNOW POTENTIAL THROUGH 12Z SAT MORNING.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A DEEPENING UPR TROF AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WL ADVN ACRS THE GT
LKS FRI WITH INCRG SHWR CHCS FRI. THE DEEP UPR TROF WL RMN ACRS
THE ERN CONUS SAT WITH A MOISTURE SWATH AND OMEGA ACRS MUCH OF THE
RGN...KEEPING CHCS FOR PCPN. COLDER AIR IS EXPD TO BEGIN TO MOVE
IN BEHIND THE INITIAL SFC LOW AS N-NE FLOW DVLPS FRI NGT INTO SAT.
CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE THIS COULD
ALLOW FOR A LTL SNW TO MIX IN WITH RAIN SHWRS AT TIMES SAT
MRNG...BUT A WRM BNDRY LYR SHOULD LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL AND PREVENT
ANY ACCUMS OUTSIDE OF THE RIDGES SE OF PIT. IN THE RIDGES...EXP A
GRDL CHG OVR TO MAINLY SNW SAT IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. GENLY
EXP A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNW IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN GRASSY
AREAS BEFORE THE PCPN BEGINS TO DMNSH SAT NGT. THE UPSLOPE
COMPONENT IS LTD WITH N-NE FLOW...AND MOISTURE BEGINS TO DMNSH BY
THE TIME NW UPSLOPE FLOW DVLPS.

BLDG HIGH PRES AND DRY WEA IS PROGGED FOR SUN. TEMPS SHOULD AVG
BLO SEASONAL LVLS THRU THE WKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD WHICH WAS BASED ON GEFS/ECENS MEANS.
A COLD SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES...WITH
READINGS CLOSE TO SEASONAL BY TUESDAY AS A FLAT UPPER RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH. ANOTHER...MUCH MORE SHALLOW TROUGH IS
PROJECTED FOR A MID WEEK...WITH PROMISE OF AN UNSETTLED END TO THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRATOCU DECK WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH VFR AND OCCASIONAL
HIGH END MVRF CEILINGS. CALM TO LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES MIDDAY FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITATION. LOWERED
VISIBILITY AT ONSET OF RAIN BUT MAINTAINED WITHIN MVFR CATEGORY
THROUGH ABOUT 00Z SAT. CIGS WILL STAY INTO MVFR AND COULD EASILY DROP
INTO IFR CATEGORY SAT MORNING AS THE LOW POSITIONS ITSELF NEARLY
OVERHEAD.


OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPSLOPING COLD ADVCTN WL THEN MAINTAIN SHWR AND STRATOCU POTENTIAL
UNTIL SFC HIGH STRENGTHENS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KLWX 310758
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
358 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY. DEEP
LOW PRESSURE WILL DESCEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES...CROSSING THE
CAROLINAS SATURDAY BEFORE STRENGTHENING ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT DURING MIDWEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVER MUCH OF THE CWA HAS SERVED TO
HALT THE QUICK TEMPERATURE DROP AND MAY MITIGATE HEAVY FROST
DEVELOPMENT...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING...WILL LET THE
FROST ADVISORY CONTINUE FOR CENTRAL VA THROUGH 9 AM.

STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL DRIVE THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS IS POISED OVER THE UP OF MI EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL
DIVE TO SC AS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN UNDERGOES SUBSTANTIAL
AMPLIFICATION AND NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS PHASE. SURFACE LOW
IS WEAK AT THIS TIME AND WILL LOSE DEFINITION AS ENERGY EVENTUALLY
TRANSFERS A COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON SATURDAY. WITH
SUCH A SOUTHWARD TRAJECTORY...FORCING WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS FOR THE FIRST STAGE OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THERE BUT MUCH OF CENTRAL MD AND VA WILL BE
IN A SQUEEZE PLAY UNTIL TONIGHT OR SATURDAY WHEN THE SYSTEM
WINDS UP AND BROAD SCALE LIFT WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AREA-WIDE.
HOWEVER...ANY HEAVIER PRECIPITATION FROM THE COASTAL LOW WILL LIKELY
REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

IN TERMS OF ANY SNOWFALL...AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY COLD ADVECTION
WILL BE VERY MINIMAL WITH THIS OCCLUDED SYSTEM. AN ANALYSIS OF
SOUNDINGS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESS SUGGEST THAT ANY SNOW WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE VERY HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF WV...AND MOSTLY AS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THAT. THE SNOW WILL BE FAVORED DURING DIURNAL
MINIMUMS IN TEMPERATURE AND ANY SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS TO NEAR 60 IN THE LOWLANDS. LOWS TONIGHT TEMPERED BY
CLOUD COVER IN RANGING FROM THE MID 30S HIGHLANDS TO MID 40S EAST.
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE ON SATURDAY AND WILL LIMIT HIGHS A BIT MORE THERE...WELL INTO
THE 40S. STILL NEAR 50 TO THE EAST. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS OFF THE COAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
BY SAT NGT...S/WV ENERGY WUD HV SHIFTED OFF THE ATLC CST...INDUCING
CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE OFF CAPE HATTERAS. IN TERMS OF PCPN E OF THE
APLCHNS...THAT PRETTY MUCH WL MARK THE END...AS DRIER AIR WL WORK IN
ON THE NW SIDE OF THE CYCLONE. HV OPTED TO HOLD ONTO MORE CLDS THAN
GFS INDICATING...PARTLY DUE TO TIMING/UNCERTAINTY DIFFS AND THE
OTHER PART DUE TO LOW H5 HGTS/PVA STILL PIVOTING ACRS CWFA. WINDS
MAY BE THE BIGGEST IMPACT...BUT THE NOCTURNAL TIMING MAY PREVENT THE
FULL 30-40 KT AVBL H9-8 FM MIXING DOWN. WL BE KEEPING GUSTS 25-30
MPH.

ACRS THE MTNS...THE AMS WL BE COOLING SUFFICIENTLY FOR SOME SNOW.
HWVR...THE BEST DYNAMIC COOLING WL PASS S OF AREA. THIS LEAVES ONLY
A MARGINALLY FVRBL AMS W/ WARM GRND. HV TRIMMED SNW TTLS BACK A LTL.
WL KEEP HWO MENTION...AS ITS NOT OUT OF THE QSTN THAT ACCUMS
POTENTIALLY CUD YIELD AN ADVY. DECISIONS WL BE MADE AS EVENT NEARS.

H8-5 RDGG BLDS QUITE QUICKLY SUNDAY...SHUTTING OFF UPSLP SHSN.
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WL ERODE MOST OF THE CLDS DURING THE MRNG. THE INCRSG
SUBSIDENCE WL TAKE CARE OF THE MTNS BY MIDDAY. WL HV A TIGHT P-GRAD
OVER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...AND BETTER MIXING. GFS QUITE
ENTHUSIASTIC ON 35-40 KT WNDS. THAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT DO HV
30-35 MPH GUSTS IN GRIDS.

AM PRESERVING A GOOD AMT OF FCST CONTINUITY FOR TEMP FCSTS THRU THIS
PD. BIGGEST CHG COMES SAT NGT...AS THE STRONG GRADIENT SUGGESTS THAT
ANY TEMP LOSS WL PRIMARILY BE ADVECTIVE. THAT MEANS MIN-T IN THE 30S
AREAWIDE SAT NGT/SUN MRNG...AND TEMPS STRUGGLING TO REACH 50F SUN
AFTN.

RDGG BLDS OVER AREA SUN NGT...W/ ALL THE ASSOCD FEATURES-- CLR
SKIES/DCPLG WNDS/DEWPTS IN THE 20S. ITS LOOKING LIKE A HARD FREEZE
FOR MOST OF THE CWFA XCPT FOR THE URBAN DOWNTOWNS AND COMMUNITIES
NEAR THE BAY. THAT LIKELY WL MARK THE END OF THE GROWING SEASON.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY
SOME DURING THE DAY BUT REMAIN A LITTLE ON THE CHILLY SIDE MONDAY
NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO GRADUALLY SLIDE INTO THE REGION AND BRING A
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS. PRECIP TIMING HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK TO
WED-WED NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT
BUT ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH MOST
OF THIS PERIOD. A VFR CEILING MAY BE PREVALENT WITH VERY FEW BREAKS
WITH THE APPRAOCHING SYSTEM. EASTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME
NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT...REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KT.

AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY...NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH SHOWERS.

WINDS WL PROVIDE PRIMARY OP IMPACT SAT NGT-SUN...AS AN ELEVATED CORE
OF 40+ KT WNDS CROSS TERMINALS. THE LLJ WL RESIDE ABT 2K FT ABV SFC.
SHUD HV 25-30KT GUSTS IN NW FLOW AT GRND LVL...MAYBE A LTL HIER THAN
THAT SUN MRNG-MIDDAY. ANY CIGS WUD BE MVFR-VFR SAT NGT AND SHUD CLR
BY/SOON AFTR SUNRISE SUN MRNG.

VFR SUN AFTN INTO TUE.
&&

.MARINE...
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS UNDER SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES WEST AND SOUTH OF
THE AREA. WITH THE STRENGTHENING LOW MOVING OFF THE COAST ON
SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL BE MET WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KT.

GRADIENT INCREASES SAT NGT. AM NOT CERTAIN IF GLW WL ENCOMPASS
ENTIRE MARINE AREA...BUT IT SHUD HIT A MAJORITY OF IT. SINCE THE GLW
WUD MEANS A HEADLINE RAMP-UP IN THE 4TH PD...HV OPTED TO NOT ISSUE
ATTM PER POLICY. NONETHELESS...THE OPEN WATERS OF THE MID BAY SHUD
EXPERIENCE 35-40 KT GUSTS. CONDS WUD CONT INTO SUN BEFORE THE
GRADIENT RELAXES AND WNDS SUBSIDE. SCA CONDS PROGGED TO HOLD ON THRU
SUN NGT PER CURRENT FCST.

AS HIPRES BLDS ELY NEXT WEEK...NO HAZARDS EXPECTED AT THAT TIME.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY
MORNING AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. POSITIVE DEPARTURES UP TO A HALF FOOT ON THE
WATERS ATTM...AND THESE MAY INCREASE A LITTLE BIT MORE THROUGH
TONIGHT. TIDAL FLOODING ISSUES WOULD ONLY OCCUR IF DEPARTURES
EXCEEDED A FOOT. AT THIS POINT...SUSPECT THAT WONT HAPPEN. BLOWOUT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ025>027-029-
     036>040-050>052-502.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...HTS/KLW
AVIATION...ADS/HTS
MARINE...ADS/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 310751
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
351 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MRNG SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED VERY WK HI PRES INVOF CNTRL
MTNS...W/ A LINGERING FNTL BNDRY OFF THE CST. ALSO...ONE S/W ALOFT
MOVING THROUGH THE LWR OH VLY...AND A 2ND (STRONGER) ONE DIVING SE
THROUGH THE WRN LAKES STATES.

TDA BEGINS CHILLY (XCP RIGHT AT THE IMMEDIATE CST IN SE VA/NE NC)
AND MNLY SKC (W/ EXCEPTION TO FAR NNW AND INVOF CSTL NE NC).
INITIAL S/W CARVES OUT TROUGH INTO INTERIOR SE CONUS STATES AND
AWAITS ARRIVAL OF THE 2ND S/W FM THE NNW. VERY WK SFC HI PRES RMNS
IN PLACE LONG ENOUGH FOR A MNLY DRY DAY ACRS THE FA. WK SFC LO
PRES DEVELOPS INVOF STALLED FNT OFF THE SE CONUS CST THIS MRNG
WHICH LIFTS TO THE NE THROUGH THE AFTN. COMBO OF SYS E AND W OF
THE FA WILL RESULT IN VRB CLDS TO PCLDY CONDS MOST PLACES THIS
AFTN. WILL HAVE SLGT CHC TO LO END CHC POPS RIGHT ALG THE
IMMEDIATE CST IN SE VA/NE NC THIS AFTN AS THE SFC LO TRACKS OFF
THE CST. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S NNW TO 60 TO 65F ELSW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG S/W WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH FROM THE TN VALLEY ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH TNGT...THEN THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON SAT. CONTD
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT DEPICTING UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER THE
CAROLINAS MIDDAY SAT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SPIN-UP SECONDARY
CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE OF THE NC COAST SAT AFTN/EVE...BEFORE
QUICKLY EJECTING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE SAT NGT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. COOL 1030+MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE EAST FROM
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

00Z/31 SUITE OF MODELS RMN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT RAIN WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE TNGT THROUGH SATURDAY. BREEZY OVERALL
ON SATURDAY...WITH BEST SURGE OF CAA LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL SAT
NGT. GIVEN FCST OF HOW FAR S UPR LVL SYS TRACKS...MOST SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS (BOTH WND AND RA) APR TO BE OVER FOR ERN/SERN CSTL
LOCATIONS (PRIMARILY) FM MIDDAY SAT INTO EARLY SAT EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY, A PERIOD OF STRONG NNE WNDS (35-45 MPH) EXPECTED
ALONG COASTAL ZONES W/AREAS OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE ATLC
BEACHES AND LWR CHES BAY (SEE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BLO). WILL
CONT TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN HWO. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED OVER AT LEAST SOME OF OUR COASTAL ZONES SAT NGT FOR A 6-10
HOUR PERIOD IF CURRENT FORECAST RATIONALE PANS OUT.

PCPN WILL TAPER OFF SAT NGT W/ SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING WAVE...AND SKY CLEARS OUT QUICKLY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS
SURFACE HIGH OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SINKS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE SOUTHEAST BEGINNING SUNDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN THE COOLEST AIR
OF THE SEASON TO DATE.

WRT QPF...MOST INLAND PLACES MAY HAVE AVG AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.25
IN...W/ HIGHER AMOUNTS (TO 0.50 TO PSBLY 0.75 IN) MNLY CONFINED TO
CLOSE TO THE CST.

FOR TEMPERATURES...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND INCREASING RAIN CHCS
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR MOST ON SATURDAY...THOUGH TEMPS MAY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 40S WELL INLAND. WELL MIXED ATMOS/BREEZY-
WINDY CONDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT STILL CHILLY WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 30S INLAND TO
LOW 40S ALONG THE COAST. DESPITE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...ONGOING LO
LVL CAA WILL KEEP HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 50S...OR ROUGHLY -1 TO -1.5
STD DEV FROM CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. BY
MONDAY MORNING LOWS SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 30-32 FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA (UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN FAVORED COLD SPOTS)...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER VALUES (35-40) FOR FAR SE PORTIONS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS FALL ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. A SLOW MODERATING TREND IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM 55-60...WITH MID/UPPER 60S POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER COOL TUESDAY MORNING
RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 30S INTERIOR TO LOW 40S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS. LOWS SHOULD MODERATE INTO THE MID 40S/LOW 50S WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH THE HIGH WELL OFFSHORE AND THE RESUMPTION OF SSW FLOW.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND TRACKS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME MOISTURE APPEARS RATHER LIMITED WITH
THIS FRONT...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS ARE INCLUDED AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THE
HIGH DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION THIS AFTN WHILE SETTING UP A WEAK
WEDGE THAT...DUE TO THE RESULTING NE FLOW...MAY CAUSE SOME MVFR
CEILINGS TO OCCUR AT KORF/KPHF/KECG THIS EVENING. ALSO TODAY...A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A
FEW SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE NE NC/SE VA COAST.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OH AND THEN TN
RIVER VALLEYS INTO SAT. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP FORM A STRONG
COASTAL SYSTEM OFF THE OUTER BANKS LATE SAT INTO SUN. AS THIS
SYSTEM DEEPENS AND MOVES OFF THE COAST...20-30 KT N WINDS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WATCHES SAT NGT HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO WARNINGS FOLLOWING
INCREASED CONFIDENCE AND COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. FOR
TDA...NE WINDS UP TO ~15 KT EXPECTED AS LO PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE SE
CST. THOUGH NOT LIKELY...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
SCA CONDITIONS OVR THE BAY. WINDS BCM NLY TNGT WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS
AS THE LO PASSES OFFSHORE AND ANOTHER LO PRES CENTER DEVELOPS NEAR
THE NC/SC CST. ON SAT...WINDS/WAVES/SEAS INCREASE AS THAT SECOND
AREA OF LO PRES STRENGTHENS OFF THE NC CST IN RESPONSE TO A VERY
POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF. MAINTAINED THE SCA OVR NRN CSTL
WTRS BEFORE THE GALE AS A PERIOD OF 5 FT SEAS IS EXPECTED
THERE...WHILE CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE WILL RAMP UP FAST ENUF TO JUST
WARRANT A GALE HEADLINE. CONDITIONS OVR THE RIVERS OTHER THAN THE
LWR JAMES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY SUB-GALE SO A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED
THERE. BRIEF WINDS CLOSE TO STORM FORCE ARE PSBL OVR SRN CSTL
WTRS...BUT WITH THE SPEED AND TRACK OF THE SFC LO...EXPECT WINDS TO
STAY MAINLY IN THE GALE RANGE. STRONGEST WINDS OVR THE
BAY/SOUND/CSTL WTRS (30-40 KT SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 40-45 KT) WILL
OCCUR SAT NGT...AND SLOWLY DIMINISH ON SUN AS THE LO PULLS WELL NE
OF THE AREA. EXPECT 4-6 FT WAVES OVR THE BAY AND SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS
UP TO 10-12 FT. HI PRES BLDS OVR THE AREA SUN NGT AND MON AND THEN
SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE ERLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...WITH SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN OFF THE COAST LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 1-1.5FT
ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
AND LOWER BAY. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IF THE SURGE
COINCIDES DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM EDT SATURDAY TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ635>637.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM EDT SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ630>634-638.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM EDT SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/MAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MAS/DAP
MARINE...MAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...












000
FXUS61 KPHI 310750
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
350 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DIG SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY, EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH AN OFF SHORE LOW TOMORROW.
THAT STORM MOVES TO THE MARITIMES SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO
THE CAROLINAS EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN SLIPS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN OVERALL QUIET DAY TODAY BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY, WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS. OUR AREA WILL
BE BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS, SO WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE DAY ALTHOUGH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED.
THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN TO START THE DAY AS IT IS MOSTLY
CLEAR IN MOST AREAS THIS MORNING, BUT WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
THROUGH MIDDAY, THEN AS CLOUDS DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BY
THE AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES SHOULD LEVEL OFF. HIGHS WERE A BLEND OF
MAV/MET MOS AND BLENDED ECMWF 925MB TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE LOW MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL WEAKEN AND COMBINE
WITH YET ANOTHER LOW SOUTH OF OUR AREA TONIGHT, WHILE THE INITIAL
COASTAL LOW STRENGTHENS AND BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD. AS THIS LOW
BEGINS DRIFTING NORTHWARD, SEVERAL VORTICITY IMPULSES ALOFT AND
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND SWING ACROSS
OUR AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO RAINFALL DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST OVERNIGHT THAT SHOULD SWING ACROSS OUR AREA, GENERALLY AROUND
OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BY SATURDAY THE SURFACE LOW (BY THIS POINT THE CONTENTION LOW AND
OFF SHORE LOW HAVE MERGED) BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST, AS THE CUTOFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO TRUDGE EASTWARD. THE MAIN IMPACTS
WE`LL BE WATCHING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PRECIP, TEMPS, COASTAL
FLOODING (SEE SECTION BELOW) AND WINDS:

WINDS WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN STORY BOTH ON LAND AND MARINE. THE
MARINE CONCERNS ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. AS FOR WIND ON LAND, CONTINUE
TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR WIND ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY NEARER THE COAST. HOWEVER, THERE ARE A FEW
THINGS LIMITING THE WIND. FIRST, THE TIGHTEST SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND GREATEST MID LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT ARE NOT JUXTAPOSED
EITHER TEMPORALLY OR GEOGRAPHICALLY. THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY, HOWEVER AT THIS TIME THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE BISECTING THE REGION. ALSO A
MID LEVEL INVERSION WILL LIMIT MIXING. INSTEAD, THE STRONGEST
WINDS LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING WHEN THE
TIGHTEST MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE
REGION. ALSO, 6 HR PRESSURE RISES THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE FORECAST
TO BE BETWEEN 2 AND 6 MB, WHILE NOT NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE AS THE
10MB PLUS PRESSURE RISES WELL OFF THE COAST THAT THE MODELS SHOW,
IT COULD BE ENOUGH FOR A SMALL COMPONENT OF AN ISALLOBARIC WIND.
HAVING SAID ALL THAT HOWEVER, BASED ON LOCAL HIGH WIND GUIDANCE WE
STILL APPEAR TO BE ON THE LOWER END OF A WIND ADVISORY THREAT EVEN
ALONG THE COAST. THEREFORE, WILL JUST KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO AT
THIS TIME.

TEMPS...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES BY
SUNDAY SHOULD BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE COLDEST
WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING WINDS AND
CLEARING SKIES. STILL EXPECTING THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION TO
BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, AS MENTIONED BY
THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, THE FALL FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM ENDS NOV. 1 AS
WE ARE PAST THE MEAN FIRST FREEZE DATE.

PRECIP...MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT OF THE TIMING OF THE
PRECIP, WHICH WILL MAINLY BE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, WITH SOME
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THROUGH THIS PERIOD, ALL OF THE
REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING, SO PRECIP TYPE IS
EXPECTED TO BE RAIN. FROM THE MODEL SOUNDINGS, THE MELTING LAYER
THROUGH THIS PERIOD IS FORECAST TO BE AT OR ABOVE 4000 FT AGL.
WITH SUCH A DEEP WARM LAYER, EVEN FLURRIES ARE VERY UNLIKELY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH BUILDS NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES OVER THE REGION. STILL EXPECT A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THIS PERIOD DUE TO BOTH AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND
INCREASING THICKNESSES. HOWEVER, INTERESTINGLY, THE GFS IS NOW
SHOWING A MUCH MORE DRAMATIC WARMING TREND THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUNS, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S POSSIBLE
BY TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IF THE
COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WILL STALL WEST OF THE
REGION UNTIL LATE THURSDAY WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SE
TOWARD THE REGION. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL DIFFERENCES
HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY, ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY IN BETWEEN TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS, ONE TO
OUR WEST AND ONE TO OUR SOUTH. CLOUD CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND LOWER
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL MAY ALSO
BEGIN TO SPREAD FROM EAST TO WEST OVERNIGHT AND TOWARD DAYBREAK
SATURDAY.

MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE NORTH TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WIND WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND TOWARD DAYBREAK
SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH GUSTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER
DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. LOCALIZED IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST INCLUDING KACY
AND KMIV.  BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM
WEST TO EAST. BREEZY NORTHERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO MOST OF
TONIGHT, BEFORE AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS TOWARD DAYBREAK. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS MAY BEGIN AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY, BUT
SINCE WE`VE ISSUED A GALE WARNING IN THE SUBSEQUENT PERIODS, THE
ADVISORY HAS BEEN REMOVED.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY WITH PEAK GUSTS NEAR 45 KT.
SEAS AS HIGH AS 10FT POSSIBLE ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS. ON THE UPPER
DELAWARE BAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS EXPECTED PRIMARILY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

MONDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN ONSHORE COMPONENT OF THE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WATER LEVELS THIS WEEKEND. MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING MAY OCCUR WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE ON SATURDAY. IT
IS POSSIBLE BUT VERY UNLIKELY TO ALSO OCCUR WITH THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM EDT SATURDAY TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 310746
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
346 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MRNG SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED VERY WK HI PRES INVOF CNTRL
MTNS...W/ A LINGERING FNTL BNDRY OFF THE CST. ALSO...ONE S/W ALOFT
MOVING THROUGH THE LWR OH VLY...AND A 2ND (STRONGER) ONE DIVING SE
THROUGH THE WRN LAKES STATES.

TDA BEGINS CHILLY (XCP RIGHT AT THE IMMEDIATE CST IN SE VA/NE NC)
AND MNLY SKC (W/ EXCEPTION INVOF CSTL NE NC). INITIAL S/W CARVES
OUT TROUGH INTO INTERIOR SE CONUS STATES AND AWAITS ARRIVAL OF THE
2ND S/W FM THE NNW. VERY WK SFC HI PRES RMNS IN PLACE LONG ENOUGH
FOR A MNLY DRY DAY ACRS THE FA. WK SFC LO PRES DEVELOPS INVOF
STALLED FNT OFF THE SE CONUS CST THIS MRNG WHICH LIFTS TO THE NE
THROUGH THE AFTN. COMBO OF SYS E AND W OF THE FA WILL RESULT IN
VRB CLDS TO PCLDY CONDS MOST PLACES THIS AFTN. WILL HAVE SLGT CHC
TO LO END CHC POPS RIGHT ALG THE IMMEDIATE CST IN SE VA/NE NC THIS
AFTN AS THE SFC LO TRACKS OFF THE CST. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S NNW TO
60 TO 65F ELSW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG S/W WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH FROM THE TN VALLEY ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH TNGT...THEN THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON SAT. CONTD
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT DEPICTING UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER THE
CAROLINAS MIDDAY SAT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SPIN-UP SECONDARY
CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE OF THE NC COAST SAT AFTN/EVE...BEFORE
QUICKLY EJECTING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE SAT NGT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. COOL 1030+MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE EAST FROM
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

00Z/31 SUITE OF MODELS RMN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT RAIN WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE TNGT THROUGH SATURDAY. BREEZY OVERALL
ON SATURDAY...WITH BEST SURGE OF CAA LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL SAT
NGT. GIVEN FCST OF HOW FAR S UPR LVL SYS TRACKS...MOST SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS (BOTH WND AND RA) APR TO BE OVER FOR ERN/SERN CSTL
LOCATIONS (PRIMARILY) FM MIDDAY SAT INTO EARLY SAT EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY, A PERIOD OF STRONG NNE WNDS (35-45 MPH) EXPECTED
ALONG COASTAL ZONES W/AREAS OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE ATLC
BEACHES AND LWR CHES BAY (SEE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BLO). WILL
CONT TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN HWO. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED OVER AT LEAST SOME OF OUR COASTAL ZONES SAT NGT FOR A 6-10
HOUR PERIOD IF CURRENT FORECAST RATIONALE PANS OUT.

PCPN WILL TAPER OFF SAT NGT W/ SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING WAVE...AND SKY CLEARS OUT QUICKLY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS
SURFACE HIGH OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SINKS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE SOUTHEAST BEGINNING SUNDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN THE COOLEST AIR
OF THE SEASON TO DATE.

WRT QPF...MOST INLAND PLACES MAY HAVE AVG AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.25
IN...W/ HIGHER AMOUNTS (TO 0.50 TO PSBLY 0.75 IN) MNLY CONFINED TO
CLOSE TO THE CST.

FOR TEMPERATURES...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND INCREASING RAIN CHCS
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR MOST ON SATURDAY...THOUGH TEMPS MAY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 40S WELL INLAND. WELL MIXED ATMOS/BREEZY-
WINDY CONDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT STILL CHILLY WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 30S INLAND TO
LOW 40S ALONG THE COAST. DESPITE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...ONGOING LO
LVL CAA WILL KEEP HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 50S...OR ROUGHLY -1 TO -1.5
STD DEV FROM CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. BY
MONDAY MORNING LOWS SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 30-32 FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA (UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN FAVORED COLD SPOTS)...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER VALUES (35-40) FOR FAR SE PORTIONS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS FALL ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. A SLOW MODERATING TREND IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM 55-60...WITH MID/UPPER 60S POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER COOL TUESDAY MORNING
RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 30S INTERIOR TO LOW 40S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS. LOWS SHOULD MODERATE INTO THE MID 40S/LOW 50S WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH THE HIGH WELL OFFSHORE AND THE RESUMPTION OF SSW FLOW.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND TRACKS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME MOISTURE APPEARS RATHER LIMITED WITH
THIS FRONT...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS ARE INCLUDED AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THE
HIGH DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION THIS AFTN WHILE SETTING UP A WEAK
WEDGE THAT...DUE TO THE RESULTING NE FLOW...MAY CAUSE SOME MVFR
CEILINGS TO OCCUR AT KORF/KPHF/KECG THIS EVENING. ALSO TODAY...A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A
FEW SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE NE NC/SE VA COAST.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OH AND THEN TN
RIVER VALLEYS INTO SAT. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP FORM A STRONG
COASTAL SYSTEM OFF THE OUTER BANKS LATE SAT INTO SUN. AS THIS
SYSTEM DEEPENS AND MOVES OFF THE COAST...20-30 KT N WINDS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WATCHES SAT NGT HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO WARNINGS FOLLOWING
INCREASED CONFIDENCE AND COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. FOR
TDA...NE WINDS UP TO ~15 KT EXPECTED AS LO PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE SE
CST. THOUGH NOT LIKELY...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
SCA CONDITIONS OVR THE BAY. WINDS BCM NLY TNGT WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS
AS THE LO PASSES OFFSHORE AND ANOTHER LO PRES CENTER DEVELOPS NEAR
THE NC/SC CST. ON SAT...WINDS/WAVES/SEAS INCREASE AS THAT SECOND
AREA OF LO PRES STRENGTHENS OFF THE NC CST IN RESPONSE TO A VERY
POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF. MAINTAINED THE SCA OVR NRN CSTL
WTRS BEFORE THE GALE AS A PERIOD OF 5 FT SEAS IS EXPECTED
THERE...WHILE CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE WILL RAMP UP FAST ENUF TO JUST
WARRANT A GALE HEADLINE. CONDITIONS OVR THE RIVERS OTHER THAN THE
LWR JAMES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY SUB-GALE SO A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED
THERE. BRIEF WINDS CLOSE TO STORM FORCE ARE PSBL OVR SRN CSTL
WTRS...BUT WITH THE SPEED AND TRACK OF THE SFC LO...EXPECT WINDS TO
STAY MAINLY IN THE GALE RANGE. STRONGEST WINDS OVR THE
BAY/SOUND/CSTL WTRS (30-40 KT SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 40-45 KT) WILL
OCCUR SAT NGT...AND SLOWLY DIMINISH ON SUN AS THE LO PULLS WELL NE
OF THE AREA. EXPECT 4-6 FT WAVES OVR THE BAY AND SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS
UP TO 10-12 FT. HI PRES BLDS OVR THE AREA SUN NGT AND MON AND THEN
SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE ERLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...WITH SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN OFF THE COAST LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 1-1.5FT
ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
AND LOWER BAY. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IF THE SURGE
COINCIDES DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM EDT SATURDAY TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ635>637.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM EDT SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ630>634-638.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM EDT SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/MAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MAS/DAP
MARINE...MAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ

















































000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310635
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
235 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
960PM UPDATE...REMOVED POPS OVERNIGHT AS SYSTEM TO THE WEST IS
SLOWING. TEMPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

WITH COOL AIR ALOFT...STRATOCU IS EXPD TO CONT INTO THE
EVE...THOUGH THESE SHOULD DCR SOME ERLY THIS EVE AS WK HIGH PRES
BLDS IN. SOME ISOLD LGT SHWRS N-E OF PIT SHOULD DSPT AS WELL WITH
THE BLDG HIGH. CLDS WL INCR AGAIN LTR TNGT AHD OF THE NXT ADVNG
SHRTWV. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE A LTL BLO THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A DEEPENING UPR TROF AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WL ADVN ACRS THE GT
LKS FRI WITH INCRG SHWR CHCS FRI. THE DEEP UPR TROF WL RMN ACRS
THE ERN CONUS SAT WITH A MOISTURE SWATH AND OMEGA ACRS MUCH OF THE
RGN...KEEPING CHCS FOR PCPN. COLDER AIR IS EXPD TO BEGIN TO MOVE
IN BEHIND THE INITIAL SFC LOW AS N-NE FLOW DVLPS FRI NGT INTO SAT.
CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE THIS COULD
ALLOW FOR A LTL SNW TO MIX IN WITH RAIN SHWRS AT TIMES SAT
MRNG...BUT A WRM BNDRY LYR SHOULD LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL AND PREVENT
ANY ACCUMS OUTSIDE OF THE RIDGES SE OF PIT. IN THE RIDGES...EXP A
GRDL CHG OVR TO MAINLY SNW SAT IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. GENLY
EXP A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNW IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN GRASSY
AREAS BEFORE THE PCPN BEGINS TO DMNSH SAT NGT. THE UPSLOPE
COMPONENT IS LTD WITH N-NE FLOW...AND MOISTURE BEGINS TO DMNSH BY
THE TIME NW UPSLOPE FLOW DVLPS.

BLDG HIGH PRES AND DRY WEA IS PROGGED FOR SUN. TEMPS SHOULD AVG
BLO SEASONAL LVLS THRU THE WKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD WHICH WAS BASED ON GEFS/ECENS MEANS.
A COLD SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES...WITH
READINGS CLOSE TO SEASONAL BY TUESDAY AS A FLAT UPPER RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH. ANOTHER...MUCH MORE SHALLOW TROUGH IS
PROJECTED FOR A MID WEEK...WITH PROMISE OF AN UNSETTLED END TO THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRATOCU DECK WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH VFR AND OCCASIONAL
HIGH END MVRF CEILINGS. CALM TO LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES MIDDAY FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITATION. LOWERED
VISIBILITY AT ONSET OF RAIN BUT MAINTAINED WITHIN MVFR CATEGORY
THROUGH ABOUT 00Z SAT. CIGS WILL STAY INTO MVFR AND COULD EASILY DROP
INTO IFR CATEGORY SAT MORNING AS THE LOW POSITIONS ITSELF NEARLY
OVERHEAD.


OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPSLOPING COLD ADVCTN WL THEN MAINTAIN SHWR AND STRATOCU POTENTIAL
UNTIL SFC HIGH STRENGTHENS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 310527
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
127 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MIDDAY SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED SFC COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE,
EXTENDING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. MEANWHILE, ~1022 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE RGN FM THE WNW. ALOFT, 2 MAIN PLAYERS
ARE A SHORTWAVE CUTTING ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE
OZARKS WITH A SECOND, STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES THIS AFTN.

FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH BUILDS
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. FORECAST LOW TEMPS EARLY FRI MORNING INTO
THE M/U30S INLAND TO ~ 50F ALONG SE COASTAL AREAS...UNDER A CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.

FRIDAY BEGINS MOSTLY CLEAR, WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS LATE
AFTN/FRIDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION DAY AS WEAKER
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE OZARKS CARVES OUT AN EAST COAST
TROUGH INTO THE DEEP SOUTH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, STRONGER NORTHERN
PLAINS TROUGH DROPS SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTN. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW AND STRONG SFC
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AFTN AND EVENING.

ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, HV MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY. MODEL
CROSS SECTIONS STILL SHOWING A GOOD DEAL OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR THAT
WL NEED TO BE OVERCOME...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON POP UNTIL AFTER DARK
FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. OTHERWISE, NOTHING MORE THAN
INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS TOMORROW AFTN/EVENING WITH HIGHS IN
THE U50S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTHEAST INCLUDING ALONG THE COAST. DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST TRICK OR TREATERS TOMORROW, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF A FEW SPRINKLES POTENTIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST ALONG THE
COASTAL FRONT AND OVER THE PIEDMONT AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SYNOPTIC REVIEW: STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL DIG CONTINUE TO DIG
SOUTH FROM THE TN VALLEY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH ON SATURDAY. GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT DEPICTING UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER THE CAROLINAS
MIDDAY SAT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SPIN-UP SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS
OFFSHORE OF THE NC COAST SAT AFTN/EVENING, BEFORE QUICKLY EJECTING
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE SAT NGT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
COOL 1030+MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE EAST FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

FORECAST DETAILS/CONCERNS: 12Z/THU SUITE OF MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. BREEZY OVERALL ON SATURDAY, WITH BEST SURGE OF
CAA LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL SAT NGT. GIVEN FCST OF HOW FAR S UPR
LVL SYSTEM TRACKS, MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS APPEAR TO BE OVER FOR
ERN/SERN CSTL LOCATIONS (PRIMARILY) FM MIDDAY SAT INTO EARLY SAT
EVENING. ADDITIONALLY, A PERIOD OF STRONG NNE WNDS (35-45 MPH)
EXPECTED ALONG COASTAL ZONES W/AREAS OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG
THE ATLC BEACHES (SEE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW). WILL
HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN HWO. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
OVER AT LEAST SOME OF OUR COASTAL ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT FOR A 6-10
HOUR PERIOD IF CURRENT FORECAST RATIONALE PANS OUT.

PCPN WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING WAVE...AND SKY CLEARS OUT QUICKLY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SINKS FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
USHER IN THE COOLEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO DATE AND A WIDESPREAD
FROST/FREEZE IS EXPECTED TO FOR MOST LOCATIONS JUST INLAND MONDAY
MORNING..

FOR TEMPERATURES, WIDESPREAD CLOUDS, INCREASING RAIN CHCS WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR MOST ON SATURDAY, WITH TEMPS POTENTIALLY NOT
MAKING IT OUT OF THE 40S WELL INLAND. WELL MIXED ATM/BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT
STILL CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S INLAND TO LOW 40S ALONG THE
COAST. DESPITE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY, ONGOING CAA WILL KEEP HIGHS
SUNDAY IN THE 50S...OR ROUGHLY -1 TO -1.5 STD DEV FROM CLIMO.
THE SFC HIGH LOCATES ALONG THE SE COAST ON MONDAY, WITH RESULTANT
LOW LEVEL SW FLOW ALLOWING FOR A MODEST WARMUP MONDAY...INTO THE
U50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. BY
MONDAY MORNING LOWS SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 30-32 FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA (UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN FAVORED COLD SPOTS)...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER VALUES (35-40) FOR FAR SE PORTIONS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS FALL ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. A SLOW MODERATING TREND IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM 55-60...WITH MID/UPPER 60S POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER COOL TUESDAY MORNING
RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 30S INTERIOR TO LOW 40S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS. LOWS SHOULD MODERATE INTO THE MID 40S/LOW 50S WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH THE HIGH WELL OFFSHORE AND THE RESUMPTION OF SSW FLOW.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND TRACKS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME MOISTURE APPEARS RATHER LIMITED WITH
THIS FRONT...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS ARE INCLUDED AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THE
HIGH DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION THIS AFTN WHILE SETTING UP A WEAK
WEDGE THAT...DUE TO THE RESULTING NE FLOW...MAY CAUSE SOME MVFR
CEILINGS TO OCCUR AT KORF/KPHF/KECG THIS EVENING. ALSO TODAY...A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A
FEW SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE NE NC/SE VA COAST.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OH AND THEN TN
RIVER VALLEYS INTO SAT. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP FORM A STRONG
COASTAL SYSTEM OFF THE OUTER BANKS LATE SAT INTO SUN. AS THIS
SYSTEM DEEPENS AND MOVES OFF THE COAST...20-30 KT N WINDS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN NNE FLOW AVERAGING
10-15KT...WITH 2-3FT SEAS AND 1-2FT WAVES IN THE BAY (2-3FT AT THE
MOUTH OF THE BAY). THE HIGH WEAKENS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FIRST WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE PULLS QUICKLY TO THE NE. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...WITH A STRONGER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENING OFF THE OUTER BANKS SATURDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG CAA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. A NNW
WIND IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND A
PERIOD OF GALE CONDITIONS IS LIKELY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SCA CONDITIONS LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL ZONES BUT
THE RAPPAHANNOCK/YORK/UPPER JAMES BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND RUNNING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE BAY/SOUND/LOWER
JAMES...AND MID-MORNING FOR THE OCEAN. THIS IS RATHER EARLY FOR A
GALE WATCH...BUT THE FLAG HAS BEEN RAISED GIVEN A RATHER HIGH
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. A RAMP UP SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NRN OCEAN
ZONES (N OF PARRAMORE) TO ACCOUNT FOR A LONGER NE PUSH...WHICH COULD
BUILD SEAS TO 5-7FT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. 12Z DATA INDICATES
RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING OFF THE OUTER BANKS...SO GIVEN THIS
THERE IS MUCH LESS OF A CHANCE OF A SHORT DURATION PERIOD OF STORM
FORCE GUSTS SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE WIND BACKING FROM NW TO SW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN OFF THE COAST LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 1-1.5FT
ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
AND LOWER BAY. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IF THE SURGE
COINCIDES DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>634-638.
     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/MAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MAS/DAP
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KLWX 310333
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1133 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST TONIGHT. DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL DESCEND FROM THE GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY...CROSSING THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY BEFORE
STRENGTHENING ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN RETURN INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT DURING
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNDER SVRL HRS OF CLRG...TEMPS RADIATED EFFECTIVELY...RIGHT PAST
PRVS MIN-T FCST. HV SVRL SITES IN THE MID-UPR 30S IN THE CENTRAL
SHEN VLY AND FOOTHILLS. DEWPTS INT HE LWR-MID 30S. HV UPDTD MIN-T
FCST BASED ON DEWPTS AND LAMP.

WITH THAT IN MIND...FROST SEEMS LKLY IN THESE LOCATIONS SINCE
TEMPS WL BE IN THE APPROPRIATE RANGE ALL NIGHT. A FREEZE ISNT OUT
OF THE QSTN...BUT HV LWR CONFIDENCE IN THAT-- CERTINALY IN TERMS
OF A WIDESPREAD OCCURENCE. HV ADDED A LATE-BREAKING/SHORT FUSED
FROST ADVY TO MOST OF CENTRAL VA. HAZARD POSTED. GRIDS HV BEEN
SENT.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHALLENGING FCST FOR THE FOLLOWING 36 HRS. N AMERICAN W.V. STLT
SHOWS A DIGGING TROF IN THE ERN PACIFIC...RIDGING W OF THE ROCKIES
W/ A SHORT WV NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG HEADING TOWARDS N DAKOTA.

THE RDG WL BE TRACKING E OF THE ROCKIES FRI...W/ THE SHORT WV
REACHING THE NRN GRT LAKES FRI MRNG. THIS WL BECOME THE PRIMARY
PLAYER IN THE FCST FOR FRI NGT. AHEAD OF THAT FRI SHOULD SEE
INCRSG CLDS W/ RLVTVLY WARM TEMPS TO END OCT - HIGHS CLOSE TO 60
WHICH IS CLOSE TO CLIMO NORMS.

HALLOWEEN EVENING SHOULD BE FAIRLY PLSNT W/ TEMPS IN THE LM50S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THERE WL BE CHCS OF RAIN W/ OF I-81 DURG
THE EVE.

MDLS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SHORT WV SHOULD BE DIVING
ACROSS KY/TN FRI NGT...REACHING THE MTNS OF WRN NC BY SUNRISE SAT.
AS MENTIONED PCPN XPCTD TO BEGIN IN THE W DURG THE LATE AFTN
FRI...BUT BETTER CHCS WL DVLP FRI NGT W/ THE DEEPENING UPR LOW.
QUSTN TURNS TO THREAT OF WINTRY PCPN: AT THIS TIME THINK THIS WL
BE PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY ELEVATION - THE 850-1000 TCKNS LN IS STILL
WELL ABV 1300M ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA FRI NGT. BLV THAT WINTRY PCPN THAT
FALLS FRI NGT COULD BE A RA/WET SNOW MIX THAT BECOMES LARGE WET
FLAKES AT THE HIGHER ELEVS.

LOWS FRI NGT IN THE LM40S. L30S IN THE HIGHLANDS.

ON SAT THE UPR LOW WL BE PUSHING OFF THE SC CST. THIS WL KEEP THE
MID ATLC CLDY AND SHOWERY. MOISTURE WRAPPING ARND THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW WL CONT TO SPAWN SNSH AT THE HIGHER ELEVS DURG THE DAY. BY
LATE SAT SVRL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION WL BE PSBL...BUT ONLY IN THE
HIGHLANDS.

HIGHS SAT IN THE L50S E OF I-81...MU30S IN THE HIGHLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPSLOPE SNOW CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...SNOW TOTAL GRID
EXTENDED.

A COASTAL STORM SYSTEM ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA WILL TRACK
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OFFSHORE AND INTENSIFY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SATURDAY
EVENING BEFORE COMING TO AN END SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME LINGERING RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD STILL EXIST AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AS WE WILL HAVE A GOOD UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE
WIND FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND COLDER AIR FILTERING IN AHEAD OF A
BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION
AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL TENTH OF AN INCH OR
TWO. STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND MIDDLE 30S
ALONG THE BAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...USHERING IN A RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF CHILLY AIR TO ONLY ALLOW
OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MIDDLE 40S AS FAR EAST AS THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY. STRONG GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT. AS A MATTER OF
FACT...DUE TO DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO FALL TO A RESULT OF WIDESPREAD LOWER 30S ACROSS THE BOARD.

AS THE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY
SOME DURING THE DAY BUT REMAIN A LITTLE ON THE CHILLY SIDE MONDAY
NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO GRADUALLY SLIDE INTO THE REGION AND BRING A
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLER AIR WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL PUSH THE
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AS WELL AS BRING A FEW ADDITIONAL RAIN
SHOWERS. THIS HIGH WILL BUILD IN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CIGS AROUND 5 KFT SLOWLY ERODE TONIGHT. VFR CONDS TNGT AND FRI.
CIGS INCREASE FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. MVFR CONDS
XPCTD SAT AS RAIN FILLS IN ACROSS THE DC METROS.

MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP NEAR BWI AND MTN TERMINALS SATURDAY
EVENING WITH LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AT ALL TERMINALS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
AVERAGE 15 TO 25 KNOTS GUSTING 30 TO 35 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
NLY FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS. ONSHORE FLOW FRIDAY. WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA
VALUES TNGT THRU FRI NGT. SCA LKLY NEED SAT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AS IT SHIFTS NORTH ALONG THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST. GALE CONDS PSBL FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
SAT EVE AND SUN. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY
EVENING AS WELL.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY
MORNING AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...FOLLOWED BY BLOWOUT CONDITIONS SAT AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ025>027-029-
     036>040-050>052-502.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...WOODY!
LONG TERM...WITT
AVIATION...BAJ/WOODY!/WITT
MARINE...BAJ/WOODY!/WITT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS/WOODY!








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310154 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
954 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
960PM UPDATE...REMOVED POPS OVERNIGHT AS SYSTEM TO THE WEST IS
SLOWING. TEMPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

WITH COOL AIR ALOFT...STRATOCU IS EXPD TO CONT INTO THE
EVE...THOUGH THESE SHOULD DCR SOME ERLY THIS EVE AS WK HIGH PRES
BLDS IN. SOME ISOLD LGT SHWRS N-E OF PIT SHOULD DSPT AS WELL WITH
THE BLDG HIGH. CLDS WL INCR AGAIN LTR TNGT AHD OF THE NXT ADVNG
SHRTWV. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE A LTL BLO THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A DEEPENING UPR TROF AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WL ADVN ACRS THE GT
LKS FRI WITH INCRG SHWR CHCS FRI. THE DEEP UPR TROF WL RMN ACRS
THE ERN CONUS SAT WITH A MOISTURE SWATH AND OMEGA ACRS MUCH OF THE
RGN...KEEPING CHCS FOR PCPN. COLDER AIR IS EXPD TO BEGIN TO MOVE
IN BEHIND THE INITIAL SFC LOW AS N-NE FLOW DVLPS FRI NGT INTO SAT.
CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE THIS COULD
ALLOW FOR A LTL SNW TO MIX IN WITH RAIN SHWRS AT TIMES SAT
MRNG...BUT A WRM BNDRY LYR SHOULD LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL AND PREVENT
ANY ACCUMS OUTSIDE OF THE RIDGES SE OF PIT. IN THE RIDGES...EXP A
GRDL CHG OVR TO MAINLY SNW SAT IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. GENLY
EXP A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNW IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN GRASSY
AREAS BEFORE THE PCPN BEGINS TO DMNSH SAT NGT. THE UPSLOPE
COMPONENT IS LTD WITH N-NE FLOW...AND MOISTURE BEGINS TO DMNSH BY
THE TIME NW UPSLOPE FLOW DVLPS.

BLDG HIGH PRES AND DRY WEA IS PROGGED FOR SUN. TEMPS SHOULD AVG
BLO SEASONAL LVLS THRU THE WKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD WHICH WAS BASED ON GEFS/ECENS MEANS.
A COLD SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES...WITH
READINGS CLOSE TO SEASONAL BY TUESDAY AS A FLAT UPPER RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH. ANOTHER...MUCH MORE SHALLOW TROUGH IS
PROJECTED FOR A MID WEEK...WITH PROMISE OF AN UNSETTLED END TO THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRATOCU DECK WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY VFR AND
OCCASIONAL HIGH END MVRF CEILINGS. CALM TO LIGHT SURFACE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES MIDDAY FRIDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION. LOWERED VISIBILITY AT ONSET OF RAIN BUT MAINTAINED
WITHIN MVFR CATEGORY.


OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE FRIDAY EVE AS
DEEPENING LOW PRES SHUNTS A BROAD MSTR SWATH OVR THE UPR OH
REGION. ENSUING UPSLOPING COLD ADVCTN WL THEN MAINTAIN SHWR AND
STRATOCU POTENTIAL UNTIL SFC HIGH STRENGTHENS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310154 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
954 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
960PM UPDATE...REMOVED POPS OVERNIGHT AS SYSTEM TO THE WEST IS
SLOWING. TEMPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

WITH COOL AIR ALOFT...STRATOCU IS EXPD TO CONT INTO THE
EVE...THOUGH THESE SHOULD DCR SOME ERLY THIS EVE AS WK HIGH PRES
BLDS IN. SOME ISOLD LGT SHWRS N-E OF PIT SHOULD DSPT AS WELL WITH
THE BLDG HIGH. CLDS WL INCR AGAIN LTR TNGT AHD OF THE NXT ADVNG
SHRTWV. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE A LTL BLO THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A DEEPENING UPR TROF AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WL ADVN ACRS THE GT
LKS FRI WITH INCRG SHWR CHCS FRI. THE DEEP UPR TROF WL RMN ACRS
THE ERN CONUS SAT WITH A MOISTURE SWATH AND OMEGA ACRS MUCH OF THE
RGN...KEEPING CHCS FOR PCPN. COLDER AIR IS EXPD TO BEGIN TO MOVE
IN BEHIND THE INITIAL SFC LOW AS N-NE FLOW DVLPS FRI NGT INTO SAT.
CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE THIS COULD
ALLOW FOR A LTL SNW TO MIX IN WITH RAIN SHWRS AT TIMES SAT
MRNG...BUT A WRM BNDRY LYR SHOULD LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL AND PREVENT
ANY ACCUMS OUTSIDE OF THE RIDGES SE OF PIT. IN THE RIDGES...EXP A
GRDL CHG OVR TO MAINLY SNW SAT IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. GENLY
EXP A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNW IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN GRASSY
AREAS BEFORE THE PCPN BEGINS TO DMNSH SAT NGT. THE UPSLOPE
COMPONENT IS LTD WITH N-NE FLOW...AND MOISTURE BEGINS TO DMNSH BY
THE TIME NW UPSLOPE FLOW DVLPS.

BLDG HIGH PRES AND DRY WEA IS PROGGED FOR SUN. TEMPS SHOULD AVG
BLO SEASONAL LVLS THRU THE WKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD WHICH WAS BASED ON GEFS/ECENS MEANS.
A COLD SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES...WITH
READINGS CLOSE TO SEASONAL BY TUESDAY AS A FLAT UPPER RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH. ANOTHER...MUCH MORE SHALLOW TROUGH IS
PROJECTED FOR A MID WEEK...WITH PROMISE OF AN UNSETTLED END TO THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRATOCU DECK WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY VFR AND
OCCASIONAL HIGH END MVRF CEILINGS. CALM TO LIGHT SURFACE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES MIDDAY FRIDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION. LOWERED VISIBILITY AT ONSET OF RAIN BUT MAINTAINED
WITHIN MVFR CATEGORY.


OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE FRIDAY EVE AS
DEEPENING LOW PRES SHUNTS A BROAD MSTR SWATH OVR THE UPR OH
REGION. ENSUING UPSLOPING COLD ADVCTN WL THEN MAINTAIN SHWR AND
STRATOCU POTENTIAL UNTIL SFC HIGH STRENGTHENS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 310134
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
934 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR REGION WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
BY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE OVER OHIO FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL JOIN
FORCES WITH LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CAROLINAS TO FORM A STRONG
STORM SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD LATE SATURDAY. THAT STORM MOVES TO THE
MARITIMES SUNDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE CAROLINAS
EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN SLIPS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION
OVERNIGHT.

THE DAYTIME STRATOCUMULUS CONTINUED TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. WE
ARE ANTICIPATING FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS DURING THE NIGHT WITH A
LIGHT WIND, MAINLY 5 MPH OR LESS FAVORING THE NORTH.

TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL INTO THE RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S TOWARD DAYBREAK. THE LOW LEVEL AIR IN
OUR REGION IS DRIER THAN IT WAS LAST NIGHT, SO NO FOG IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR WEATHER LATE
IN THIS PERIOD. THE FIRST ONE WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY WITH THE SECOND DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINA
COASTLINE. CLOUDS FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.
THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW ADDITIONAL CLOUDS TO ADVECT IN FROM THE
OCEAN DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT ALONG THE COAST. MODELED 925 MB TEMPERATURES INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50`S ON FRIDAY FOR PHL. HOWEVER
WITH CLOUDS MOVING IN IT WILL BE HARD TO REACH THESE AND KEPT
HIGHS IN THE MID 50`S WITH SOME UPPER 40`S NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500 MB: A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THIS
WEEKEND MOVES TO THE MARITIMES EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE A WARMING
RIDGE FOLLOWS EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER TROUGH EVOLVES IN THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES LATER NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES: BY THE TIME THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS
WE`VE CLOSED OUT THE MONTH OF OCTOBER THAT AVERAGED MORE THAN 2
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NOVEMBER STARTS OUT NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY...
5 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL SUNDAY WITH WIND... STILL NEARLY 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY BUT WITH LESS WIND AND THEN NEAR
NORMAL TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY....MAYBE AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL EITHER DAY.

HAZARDS: GALE SATURDAY POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SUNDAY. POSSIBLE
MINOR TIDAL INUNDATION FLOODING NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BUT THIS IS NOT LIKELY. A SMALL
CHANCE OF SPOTTY WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS SUNDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF
THIS FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/30
NAM/GFS MOS FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN
THAT VALUE BLENDED 50 PCT WITH THE 00Z/30 ECMWF 2M TEMPS. 12Z/30
GFS MOS COMPRISES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN THEREAFTER
(MONDAY ONWARD) THE 1523Z/30 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES
IS BLENDED 50 50 WITH THE 12Z/30 MEXMOS. ALL THIS WAS EVENTUALLY
CHECKED AGAINST THE 12Z/30 ECMWF THROUGH TUESDAY ONLY, WHEN WE
MODIFIED THE NCEP-WPC GUIDANCE HIGHER BY SEVERAL DEGREES BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY!

THE REMAINDER..WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND..OF THE 12Z/30 OPERATIONAL
ECMWF DID NOT ARRIVE IN A TIMELY FASHION AND WAS NOT USED FOR THIS
FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/30
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z MONDAY AND THEREAFTER THE
12Z/30 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES BELOW...

FRIDAY NIGHT...PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING WESTWARD THROUGH
NJ...POSSIBLY DURING THE EVENING TRICK OR TREAT TIME. CONFIDENCE
ON FORECAST DETAILS IS AVERAGE.

SATURDAY...COOLER THAN NORMAL AND BRISK WITH NORTHERLY GUSTS
20-30 MPH. RAIN PROBABLE AT TIMES SE PA THROUGH SOUTHERN-CENTRAL
NJ AND PROBABLY SOUTH ONTO THE DELMARVA. 15Z SREF IS DRIER THAN
I`D LIKE TO SEE FOR SATURDAY. SO THE COMBINATION OF THE LATE
ARRIVING ECMWF AND SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS LOWERS MY CONFIDENCE ON
SATURDAYS FORECAST TO ONLY AVERAGE.

SUNDAY...WINDY AND MAYBE 5 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTS 30-40 MPH. ISOLATED WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
POSSIBLE. THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST THAN THE 12Z ECMWF AND SO MY
CONFIDENCE ON MAX WIND GUST IS BELOW AVERAGE. DIURNAL SC WITH
PLENTIFUL MORNING SUNSHINE HIDING BEHIND INCREASING MIDDAY SC.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF BUT AS YET UNMENTIONED...FOR AN
AFTERNOON SPRINKLE WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH ALOFT PASSAGE. IF THE
SPRINKLES MATERIALIZE...IT WOULD BE A SNOW SHOWER IN THE POCONOS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FROST FREEZE PORTION FOR OUR FORECAST AREA
ENDS NOVEMBER 1 SO DESPITE THE FORECAST OF FROST OR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...A HEADLINE
WILL NOT BE ISSUED. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER
ARRIVING AROUND DAWN.

MONDAY...DIMINISHED WIND AND MILDER. MID LVL CLOUD COVER. WEST
WIND GUST 15 MPH. THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS RAISED BY 4 DEGREES DUE TO
THE MUCH MILDER 12Z/30 ECMWF 2M TEMPS.

TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER. THIS SHOULD BE
A NICE DAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

WEDNESDAY...PROBABLY STILL NICE. MAYBE A SHOWER DEVELOPS LATE.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

THURSDAY...MAYBE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS OTHERWISE...THE NEXT TROUGH
AND A COOL FRONT MAY BE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN USA. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. AN INCREASE IN STRATOCUMULUS IS EXPECTED DURING
THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 4000 TO 5000
FEET AT THAT TIME.

A LIGHT WIND AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS SHOULD FAVOR THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.
A NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND AROUND 4 TO 8 KNOTS IS EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR CIGS MAY LOWER TO MVFR CIGS LATE. -SHRA SHOULD
BE DEVELOPING OVER NJ POSSIBLY RESULTING IN MVFR VSBY AS WELL.

SATURDAY...MVFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDS IN SHOWERS ACROSS SE
PA...THE DELMARVA...S AND CENTRAL NJ. NORTHERLY WINDS GUST 20-30
KT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUSTY NNW WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE ESPECIALLY AT
KACY.

SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. NW WIND GUSTS 23-33KT DIMINISHING
AT NIGHT. CIGS NEAR 3500 FT IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON MAY YIELD AN
ISOLATED SPRINKLE (EXCEPT FLURRY POCONOS?).

MONDAY...VFR WITH BKN CIGS AOA 10000 FT. W-NW WIND GUSTING 15 KT.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AND WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER SOME WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
BY FRIDAY EVENING OFF THE DELAWARE COAST.

OUTLOOK...
HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED. TIMING OF THE ONSET OF GALE FORCE
GUSTS IS STILL UNCERTAIN AND IF THIS GALE IS DELAYED TIL SATURDAY
EVENING...I WANTED AN SCA TO PRECEDE.

THE 12Z/30 GFS WW3 MODELED SEAS WERE INCREASED BY 2-3 FT SATURDAY
THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS WILL BUILD INTO SCA CRITERIA,
AND THEN GALES, WITH PEAK GUSTS NEAR 40KT POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY. GALE CONDITIONS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH THIS PERIOD THOUGH SCA SEAS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY
MONDAY?

TUESDAY...NO HEADLINE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN ONSHORE COMPONENT OF THE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WATER LEVELS THIS WEEKEND. MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING MAY OCCUR WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME WE THINK IT UNLIKELY BUT WE STILL ARE
MONITORING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/IOVINO
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DRAG







000
FXUS61 KLWX 310129
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
929 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST TONIGHT. DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL DESCEND FROM THE GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY...CROSSING THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY BEFORE
STRENGTHENING ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN RETURN INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT DURING
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 01Z...MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM AN UPR TROUGH PERSIST OVER THE
NRN AND WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE MIDWEST
FROM A LOW CENTERED OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MN (PER WATER VAPOR) WILL
BEGIN TO DOMINATE THE ERN CONUS TONIGHT. THEREFORE...THE CLOUDS
OVER US SHOULD GENERALLY CLEAR EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 30S AND SOME MIXING SHOULD LIMIT FOG. 1020MB
SFC HIGH IS OVER THE ERN OH VLY. THIS HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT TO
NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY MORNING. MIN TEMPS AROUND 40F INLAND...LOW
30S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND MID TO UPR 40S FOR NEAR SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHALLENGING FCST FOR THE FOLLOWING 36 HRS. N AMERICAN W.V. STLT
SHOWS A DIGGING TROF IN THE ERN PACIFIC...RIDGING W OF THE ROCKIES
W/ A SHORT WV NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG HEADING TOWARDS N DAKOTA.

THE RDG WL BE TRACKING E OF THE ROCKIES FRI...W/ THE SHORT WV
REACHING THE NRN GRT LAKES FRI MRNG. THIS WL BECOME THE PRIMARY
PLAYER IN THE FCST FOR FRI NGT. AHEAD OF THAT FRI SHOULD SEE
INCRSG CLDS W/ RLVTVLY WARM TEMPS TO END OCT - HIGHS CLOSE TO 60
WHICH IS CLOSE TO CLIMO NORMS.

HALLOWEEN EVENING SHOULD BE FAIRLY PLSNT W/ TEMPS IN THE LM50S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THERE WL BE CHCS OF RAIN W/ OF I-81 DURG
THE EVE.

MDLS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SHORT WV SHOULD BE DIVING
ACROSS KY/TN FRI NGT...REACHING THE MTNS OF WRN NC BY SUNRISE SAT.
AS MENTIONED PCPN XPCTD TO BEGIN IN THE W DURG THE LATE AFTN
FRI...BUT BETTER CHCS WL DVLP FRI NGT W/ THE DEEPENING UPR LOW.
QUSTN TURNS TO THREAT OF WINTRY PCPN: AT THIS TIME THINK THIS WL
BE PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY ELEVATION - THE 850-1000 TCKNS LN IS STILL
WELL ABV 1300M ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA FRI NGT. BLV THAT WINTRY PCPN THAT
FALLS FRI NGT COULD BE A RA/WET SNOW MIX THAT BECOMES LARGE WET
FLAKES AT THE HIGHER ELEVS.

LOWS FRI NGT IN THE LM40S. L30S IN THE HIGHLANDS.

ON SAT THE UPR LOW WL BE PUSHING OFF THE SC CST. THIS WL KEEP THE
MID ATLC CLDY AND SHOWERY. MOISTURE WRAPPING ARND THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW WL CONT TO SPAWN SNSH AT THE HIGHER ELEVS DURG THE DAY. BY
LATE SAT SVRL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION WL BE PSBL...BUT ONLY IN THE
HIGHLANDS.

HIGHS SAT IN THE L50S E OF I-81...MU30S IN THE HIGHLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPSLOPE SNOW CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...SNOW TOTAL GRID
EXTENDED.

A COASTAL STORM SYSTEM ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA WILL TRACK
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OFFSHORE AND INTENSIFY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SATURDAY
EVENING BEFORE COMING TO AN END SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME LINGERING RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD STILL EXIST AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AS WE WILL HAVE A GOOD UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE
WIND FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND COLDER AIR FILTERING IN AHEAD OF A
BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION
AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL TENTH OF AN INCH OR
TWO. STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND MIDDLE 30S
ALONG THE BAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...USHERING IN A RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF CHILLY AIR TO ONLY ALLOW
OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MIDDLE 40S AS FAR EAST AS THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY. STRONG GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT. AS A MATTER OF
FACT...DUE TO DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO FALL TO A RESULT OF WIDESPREAD LOWER 30S ACROSS THE BOARD.

AS THE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY
SOME DURING THE DAY BUT REMAIN A LITTLE ON THE CHILLY SIDE MONDAY
NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO GRADUALLY SLIDE INTO THE REGION AND BRING A
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLER AIR WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL PUSH THE
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AS WELL AS BRING A FEW ADDITIONAL RAIN
SHOWERS. THIS HIGH WILL BUILD IN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CIGS AROUND 5 KFT SLOWLY ERODE TONIGHT. VFR CONDS TNGT AND FRI.
CIGS INCREASE FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. MVFR CONDS
XPCTD SAT AS RAIN FILLS IN ACROSS THE DC METROS.

MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP NEAR BWI AND MTN TERMINALS SATURDAY
EVENING WITH LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AT ALL TERMINALS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
AVERAGE 15 TO 25 KNOTS GUSTING 30 TO 35 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
NLY FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS. ONSHORE FLOW FRIDAY. WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA
VALUES TNGT THRU FRI NGT. SCA LKLY NEED SAT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AS IT SHIFTS NORTH ALONG THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST. GALE CONDS PSBL FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
SAT EVE AND SUN. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY
EVENING AS WELL.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY
MORNING AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...FOLLOWED BY BLOWOUT CONDITIONS SAT AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...JACKSON
PREVIOUS...WOOD!/KLW







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 310024
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
824 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MIDDAY SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED SFC COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE,
EXTENDING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. MEANWHILE, ~1022 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE RGN FM THE WNW. ALOFT, 2 MAIN PLAYERS
ARE A SHORTWAVE CUTTING ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE
OZARKS WITH A SECOND, STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES THIS AFTN.

FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH BUILDS
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. FORECAST LOW TEMPS EARLY FRI MORNING INTO
THE M/U30S INLAND TO ~ 50F ALONG SE COASTAL AREAS...UNDER A CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.

FRIDAY BEGINS MOSTLY CLEAR, WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS LATE
AFTN/FRIDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION DAY AS WEAKER
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE OZARKS CARVES OUT AN EAST COAST
TROUGH INTO THE DEEP SOUTH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, STRONGER NORTHERN
PLAINS TROUGH DROPS SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTN. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW AND STRONG SFC
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AFTN AND EVENING.

ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, HV MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY. MODEL
CROSS SECTIONS STILL SHOWING A GOOD DEAL OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR THAT
WL NEED TO BE OVERCOME...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON POP UNTIL AFTER DARK
FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. OTHERWISE, NOTHING MORE THAN
INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS TOMORROW AFTN/EVENING WITH HIGHS IN
THE U50S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTHEAST INCLUDING ALONG THE COAST. DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST TRICK OR TREATERS TOMORROW, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF A FEW SPRINKLES POTENTIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST ALONG THE
COASTAL FRONT AND OVER THE PIEDMONT AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SYNOPTIC REVIEW: STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL DIG CONTINUE TO DIG
SOUTH FROM THE TN VALLEY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH ON SATURDAY. GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT DEPICTING UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER THE CAROLINAS
MIDDAY SAT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SPIN-UP SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS
OFFSHORE OF THE NC COAST SAT AFTN/EVENING, BEFORE QUICKLY EJECTING
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE SAT NGT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
COOL 1030+MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE EAST FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

FORECAST DETAILS/CONCERNS: 12Z/THU SUITE OF MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. BREEZY OVERALL ON SATURDAY, WITH BEST SURGE OF
CAA LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL SAT NGT. GIVEN FCST OF HOW FAR S UPR
LVL SYSTEM TRACKS, MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS APPEAR TO BE OVER FOR
ERN/SERN CSTL LOCATIONS (PRIMARILY) FM MIDDAY SAT INTO EARLY SAT
EVENING. ADDITIONALLY, A PERIOD OF STRONG NNE WNDS (35-45 MPH)
EXPECTED ALONG COASTAL ZONES W/AREAS OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG
THE ATLC BEACHES (SEE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW). WILL
HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN HWO. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
OVER AT LEAST SOME OF OUR COASTAL ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT FOR A 6-10
HOUR PERIOD IF CURRENT FORECAST RATIONALE PANS OUT.

PCPN WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING WAVE...AND SKY CLEARS OUT QUICKLY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SINKS FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
USHER IN THE COOLEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO DATE AND A WIDESPREAD
FROST/FREEZE IS EXPECTED TO FOR MOST LOCATIONS JUST INLAND MONDAY
MORNING..

FOR TEMPERATURES, WIDESPREAD CLOUDS, INCREASING RAIN CHCS WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR MOST ON SATURDAY, WITH TEMPS POTENTIALLY NOT
MAKING IT OUT OF THE 40S WELL INLAND. WELL MIXED ATM/BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT
STILL CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S INLAND TO LOW 40S ALONG THE
COAST. DESPITE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY, ONGOING CAA WILL KEEP HIGHS
SUNDAY IN THE 50S...OR ROUGHLY -1 TO -1.5 STD DEV FROM CLIMO.
THE SFC HIGH LOCATES ALONG THE SE COAST ON MONDAY, WITH RESULTANT
LOW LEVEL SW FLOW ALLOWING FOR A MODEST WARMUP MONDAY...INTO THE
U50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. BY
MONDAY MORNING LOWS SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 30-32 FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA (UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN FAVORED COLD SPOTS)...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER VALUES (35-40) FOR FAR SE PORTIONS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS FALL ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. A SLOW MODERATING TREND IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM 55-60...WITH MID/UPPER 60S POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER COOL TUESDAY MORNING
RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 30S INTERIOR TO LOW 40S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS. LOWS SHOULD MODERATE INTO THE MID 40S/LOW 50S WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH THE HIGH WELL OFFSHORE AND THE RESUMPTION OF SSW FLOW.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND TRACKS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME MOISTURE APPEARS RATHER LIMITED WITH
THIS FRONT...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS ARE INCLUDED AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRI
EVENING AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TNGT.
THE HIGH DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION FRI AFTN WHILE SETTING UP A
WEAK WEDGE THAT...DUE TO THE RESULTING NE FLOW...MAY CAUSE SOME
MVFR CEILINGS TO OCCUR AT KORF AND KPHF FRI EVENING. ON FRIDAY...A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A
FEW SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE NE NC/SE VA COAST.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OH AND THEN TN
RIVER VALLEYS FRI INTO SAT. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP TO FORM A STRONG
COASTAL SYSTEM OFF THE OUTER BANKS LATE SAT INTO SUN. AS THIS
SYSTEM DEEPENS AND MOVES OFF THE COAST...20-30 KT N WINDS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN AFTN.


&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN NNE FLOW AVERAGING
10-15KT...WITH 2-3FT SEAS AND 1-2FT WAVES IN THE BAY (2-3FT AT THE
MOUTH OF THE BAY). THE HIGH WEAKENS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FIRST WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE PULLS QUICKLY TO THE NE. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...WITH A STRONGER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENING OFF THE OUTER BANKS SATURDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG CAA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. A NNW
WIND IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND A
PERIOD OF GALE CONDITIONS IS LIKELY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SCA CONDITIONS LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL ZONES BUT
THE RAPPAHANNOCK/YORK/UPPER JAMES BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND RUNNING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE BAY/SOUND/LOWER
JAMES...AND MID-MORNING FOR THE OCEAN. THIS IS RATHER EARLY FOR A
GALE WATCH...BUT THE FLAG HAS BEEN RAISED GIVEN A RATHER HIGH
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. A RAMP UP SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NRN OCEAN
ZONES (N OF PARRAMORE) TO ACCOUNT FOR A LONGER NE PUSH...WHICH COULD
BUILD SEAS TO 5-7FT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. 12Z DATA INDICATES
RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING OFF THE OUTER BANKS...SO GIVEN THIS
THERE IS MUCH LESS OF A CHANCE OF A SHORT DURATION PERIOD OF STORM
FORCE GUSTS SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE WIND BACKING FROM NW TO SW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN OFF THE COAST LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 1-1.5FT
ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
AND LOWER BAY. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IF THE SURGE
COINCIDES DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>634-638.
     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/MAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 302334 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
734 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
730PM UPDATE...PREVIOUS FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO TEMPS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

WITH COOL AIR ALOFT...STRATOCU IS EXPD TO CONT INTO THE
EVE...THOUGH THESE SHOULD DCR SOME ERLY THIS EVE AS WK HIGH PRES
BLDS IN. SOME ISOLD LGT SHWRS N-E OF PIT SHOULD DSPT AS WELL WITH
THE BLDG HIGH. CLDS WL INCR AGAIN LTR TNGT AHD OF THE NXT ADVNG
SHRTWV. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE A LTL BLO THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A DEEPENING UPR TROF AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WL ADVN ACRS THE GT
LKS FRI WITH INCRG SHWR CHCS FRI. THE DEEP UPR TROF WL RMN ACRS
THE ERN CONUS SAT WITH A MOISTURE SWATH AND OMEGA ACRS MUCH OF THE
RGN...KEEPING CHCS FOR PCPN. COLDER AIR IS EXPD TO BEGIN TO MOVE
IN BEHIND THE INITIAL SFC LOW AS N-NE FLOW DVLPS FRI NGT INTO SAT.
CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE THIS COULD
ALLOW FOR A LTL SNW TO MIX IN WITH RAIN SHWRS AT TIMES SAT
MRNG...BUT A WRM BNDRY LYR SHOULD LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL AND PREVENT
ANY ACCUMS OUTSIDE OF THE RIDGES SE OF PIT. IN THE RIDGES...EXP A
GRDL CHG OVR TO MAINLY SNW SAT IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. GENLY
EXP A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNW IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN GRASSY
AREAS BEFORE THE PCPN BEGINS TO DMNSH SAT NGT. THE UPSLOPE
COMPONENT IS LTD WITH N-NE FLOW...AND MOISTURE BEGINS TO DMNSH BY
THE TIME NW UPSLOPE FLOW DVLPS.

BLDG HIGH PRES AND DRY WEA IS PROGGED FOR SUN. TEMPS SHOULD AVG
BLO SEASONAL LVLS THRU THE WKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD WHICH WAS BASED ON GEFS/ECENS MEANS.
A COLD SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES...WITH
READINGS CLOSE TO SEASONAL BY TUESDAY AS A FLAT UPPER RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH. ANOTHER...MUCH MORE SHALLOW TROUGH IS
PROJECTED FOR A MID WEEK...WITH PROMISE OF AN UNSETTLED END TO THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRATOCU DECK WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY VFR AND
OCCASIONAL HIGH END MVRF CEILINGS. CALM TO LIGHT SURFACE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES MIDDAY FRIDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION. LOWERED VISIBILITY AT ONSET OF RAIN BUT MAINTAINED
WITHIN MVFR CATEGORY.


OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE FRIDAY EVE AS
DEEPENING LOW PRES SHUNTS A BROAD MSTR SWATH OVR THE UPR OH
REGION. ENSUING UPSLOPING COLD ADVCTN WL THEN MAINTAIN SHWR AND
STRATOCU POTENTIAL UNTIL SFC HIGH STRENGTHENS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 302130 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
530 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
530PM UPDATE...PREVIOUS FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

WITH COOL AIR ALOFT...STRATOCU IS EXPD TO CONT INTO THE
EVE...THOUGH THESE SHOULD DCR SOME ERLY THIS EVE AS WK HIGH PRES
BLDS IN. SOME ISOLD LGT SHWRS N-E OF PIT SHOULD DSPT AS WELL WITH
THE BLDG HIGH. CLDS WL INCR AGAIN LTR TNGT AHD OF THE NXT ADVNG
SHRTWV. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE A LTL BLO THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A DEEPENING UPR TROF AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WL ADVN ACRS THE GT
LKS FRI WITH INCRG SHWR CHCS FRI. THE DEEP UPR TROF WL RMN ACRS
THE ERN CONUS SAT WITH A MOISTURE SWATH AND OMEGA ACRS MUCH OF THE
RGN...KEEPING CHCS FOR PCPN. COLDER AIR IS EXPD TO BEGIN TO MOVE
IN BEHIND THE INITIAL SFC LOW AS N-NE FLOW DVLPS FRI NGT INTO SAT.
CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE THIS COULD
ALLOW FOR A LTL SNW TO MIX IN WITH RAIN SHWRS AT TIMES SAT
MRNG...BUT A WRM BNDRY LYR SHOULD LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL AND PREVENT
ANY ACCUMS OUTSIDE OF THE RIDGES SE OF PIT. IN THE RIDGES...EXP A
GRDL CHG OVR TO MAINLY SNW SAT IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. GENLY
EXP A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNW IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN GRASSY
AREAS BEFORE THE PCPN BEGINS TO DMNSH SAT NGT. THE UPSLOPE
COMPONENT IS LTD WITH N-NE FLOW...AND MOISTURE BEGINS TO DMNSH BY
THE TIME NW UPSLOPE FLOW DVLPS.

BLDG HIGH PRES AND DRY WEA IS PROGGED FOR SUN. TEMPS SHOULD AVG
BLO SEASONAL LVLS THRU THE WKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD WHICH WAS BASED ON GEFS/ECENS MEANS.
A COLD SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES...WITH
READINGS CLOSE TO SEASONAL BY TUESDAY AS A FLAT UPPER RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH. ANOTHER...MUCH MORE SHALLOW TROUGH IS
PROJECTED FOR A MID WEEK...WITH PROMISE OF AN UNSETTLED END TO THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRATOCU BLANKET WL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE UPR OH TERMINALS INTO THIS
EVE...BUT GENL VFR/HIGH END MVFR WL BE PREDOMINATE.  OTHRWISE...LGT
SFC WIND WL VEER TO THE SW AND S LATE TNGT AS UPSTREAM SHRTWV
ADVNS...BUT GENL CONDITION DETERIORATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH
THAT SYSTEM UNTIL WELL AFTR DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED BY FRIDAY EVE AS DEEPENING LOW
PRES SHUNTS A BROAD MSTR SWATH OVR THE UPR OH REGION. ENSUING
UPSLOPING COLD ADVCTN WL THEN MAINTAIN SHWR AND STRATOCU POTENTIAL
UNTIL SFC HIGH STRENGTHENS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 302128
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
528 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR REGION WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE OVER OHIO FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL JOIN FORCES
WITH LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CAROLINAS TO FORM A STRONG STORM SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE COD LATE SATURDAY. THAT STORM MOVES TO THE MARITIMES SUNDAY.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY NEXT WEEK
THEN SLIPS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
DUE TO DAYTIME AND STEEP LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON A BROAD AREA
OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A CLEAR
AND COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST/NORTH WINDS SHOULD DECREASE
AND BECOME VARIABLE TONIGHT. A TIGHT SPREAD WITH TEMPERATURES
AMONG MEX/MET AND THE ECMWF/GFS OPERATIONAL MODELS RUN FOR LOWS
TONIGHT. DID GO SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THESE SETS IN THE PINE BARRENS
WITH FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN 30`S TO RIGHT AROUND 40, WARMEST AT PHL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR WEATHER LATE IN
THIS PERIOD. THE FIRST ONE WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY FRIDAY WITH THE SECOND DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINA
COASTLINE. CLOUDS FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.
THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW ADDITIONAL CLOUDS TO ADVECT IN FROM THE
OCEAN DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT ALONG THE COAST. MODELED 925 MB TEMPERATURES INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50`S ON FRIDAY FOR PHL. HOWEVER
WITH CLOUDS MOVING IN IT WILL BE HARD TO REACH THESE AND KEPT
HIGHS IN THE MID 50`S WITH SOME UPPER 40`S NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500 MB: A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THIS
WEEKEND MOVES TO THE MARITIMES EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE A WARMING RIDGE
FOLLOWS EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER TROUGH EVOLVES IN THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES LATER NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES: BY THE TIME THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS
WE`VE CLOSED OUT THE MONTH OF OCTOBER THAT AVERAGED MORE THAN 2
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NOVEMBER STARTS OUT NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY...
5 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL SUNDAY WITH WIND... STILL NEARLY 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY BUT WITH LESS WIND AND THEN NEAR
NORMAL TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY....MAYBE AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL EITHER DAY.

HAZARDS: GALE SATURDAY POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SUNDAY. POSSIBLE
MINOR TIDAL INUNDATION FLOODING NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BUT THIS IS NOT LIKELY. A SMALL CHANCE OF
SPOTTY WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS SUNDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/30 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN THAT VALUE
BLENDED 50 PCT WITH THE 00Z/30 ECMWF 2M TEMPS. 12Z/30 GFS MOS COMPRISES
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN THEREAFTER (MONDAY ONWARD) THE
1523Z/30 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES IS BLENDED 50 50 WITH
THE 12Z/30 MEXMOS. ALL THIS WAS EVENTUALLY CHECKED AGAINST THE
12Z/30 ECMWF THROUGH TUESDAY ONLY, WHEN WE MODIFIED THE NCEP-WPC
GUIDANCE HIGHER BY SEVERAL DEGREES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY!

THE REMAINDER..WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND..OF THE 12Z/30 OPERATIONAL ECMWF
DID NOT ARRIVE IN A TIMELY FASHION AND WAS NOT USED FOR THIS FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/30
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z MONDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/30
GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES BELOW...

FRIDAY NIGHT...PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING WESTWARD THROUGH NJ...POSSIBLY
DURING THE EVENING TRICK OR TREAT TIME. CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST DETAILS
IS AVERAGE.

SATURDAY...COOLER THAN NORMAL AND BRISK WITH NORTHERLY GUSTS 20-30 MPH.
RAIN PROBABLE AT TIMES SE PA THROUGH SOUTHERN-CENTRAL NJ AND PROBABLY
SOUTH ONTO THE DELMARVA. 15Z SREF IS DRIER THAN I`D LIKE TO SEE FOR
SATURDAY. SO THE COMBINATION OF THE LATE ARRIVING ECMWF AND SPREAD IN
SOLUTIONS LOWERS MY CONFIDENCE ON SATURDAYS FORECAST TO ONLY AVERAGE.

SUNDAY...WINDY AND MAYBE 5 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTS 30-40 MPH. ISOLATED WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA POSSIBLE.
THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST THAN THE 12Z ECMWF AND SO MY CONFIDENCE ON
MAX WIND GUST IS BELOW AVERAGE. DIURNAL SC WITH PLENTIFUL MORNING
SUNSHINE HIDING BEHIND INCREASING MIDDAY SC. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF BUT AS YET UNMENTIONED...FOR AN AFTERNOON SPRINKLE WITH
A SECONDARY TROUGH ALOFT PASSAGE. IF THE SPRINKLES
MATERIALIZE...IT WOULD BE A SNOW SHOWER IN THE POCONOS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FROST FREEZE PORTION FOR OUR FORECAST AREA ENDS
NOVEMBER 1 SO DESPITE THE FORECAST OF FROST OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...A HEADLINE WILL NOT BE
ISSUED. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ARRIVING AROUND
DAWN.

MONDAY...DIMINISHED WIND AND MILDER. MID LVL CLOUD COVER. WEST
WIND GUST 15 MPH. THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS RAISED BY 4 DEGREES DUE TO
THE MUCH MILDER 12Z/30 ECMWF 2M TEMPS.

TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER.  THIS SHOULD BE
A NICE DAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

WEDNESDAY...PROBABLY STILL NICE. MAYBE A SHOWER DEVELOPS LATE.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

THURSDAY...MAYBE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS OTHERWISE...THE NEXT TROUGH
AND A COOL FRONT MAY BE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN USA. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CLOUD COVER IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH BASES
FROM 3,500-5,000 FEET, VARYING FROM BROKEN TO SCATTERED FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET. WITH A DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN, NO FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER VFR DAY IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS AROUND 4,000 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTER 18Z SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE AT ACY. EXPECT ANY MVFR CEILINGS TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT RAIN MAKER.


OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR CIGS MAY LOWER TO MVFR CIGS LATE. -SHRA SHOULD
BE DEVELOPING OVER NJ POSSIBLY RESULTING IN MVFR VSBY AS WELL.

SATURDAY...MVFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDS IN SHOWERS ACROSS SE
PA...THE DELMARVA...S AND CENTRAL NJ. NORTHERLY WINDS GUST 20-30
KT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUSTY NNW WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE ESPECIALLY AT
KACY.

SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. NW WIND GUSTS 23-33KT DIMINISHING
AT NIGHT. CIGS NEAR 3500 FT IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON MAY YIELD AN
ISOLATED SPRINKLE (EXCEPT FLURRY POCONOS?).

MONDAY...VFR WITH BKN CIGS AOA 10000 FT. W-NW WIND GUSTING 15 KT.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AND WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER SOME WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
BY FRIDAY EVENING OFF THE DELAWARE COAST.

OUTLOOK...
HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED. TIMING OF THE ONSET OF GALE FORCE
GUSTS IS STILL UNCERTAIN AND IF THIS GALE IS DELAYED TIL SATURDAY
EVENING...I WANTED AN SCA TO PRECEDE.

THE 12Z/30 GFS WW3 MODELED SEAS WERE INCREASED BY 2-3 FT SATURDAY
THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS WILL BUILD INTO SCA CRITERIA,
AND THEN GALES, WITH PEAK GUSTS NEAR 40KT POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. GALE CONDITIONS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THROUGH THIS PERIOD THOUGH SCA SEAS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY MONDAY?

TUESDAY...NO HEADLINE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN ONSHORE COMPONENT OF THE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY
WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WATER LEVELS THIS WEEKEND. MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING MAY OCCUR WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME WE THINK IT UNLIKELY BUT WE STILL ARE MONITORING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...DRAG 527 CORRECTED TYPOS
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 302017
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
417 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR REGION WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE OVER OHIO FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL JOIN FORCES
WITH LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CAROLINAS TO FORM A STRONG STORM SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE COD LATE SATURDAY. THAT STORM MOVES TO THE MARITIMES SUNDAY.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY NEXT WEEK
THEN SLIPS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEXT WEDNESDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
DUE TO DAYTIME AND STEEP LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON A BROAD AREA
OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A CLEAR
AND COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST/NORTH WINDS SHOULD DECREASE
AND BECOME VARIABLE TONIGHT. A TIGHT SPREAD WITH TEMPERATURES
AMONG MEX/MET AND THE ECMWF/GFS OPERATIONAL MODELS RUN FOR LOWS
TONIGHT. DID GO SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THESE SETS IN THE PINE BARRENS
WITH FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN 30`S TO RIGHT AROUND 40, WARMEST AT PHL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR WEATHER LATE IN
THIS PERIOD. THE FIRST ONE WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY FRIDAY WITH THE SECOND DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINA
COASTLINE. CLOUDS FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.
THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW ADDITIONAL CLOUDS TO ADVECT IN FROM THE
OCEAN DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT ALONG THE COAST. MODELED 925 MB TEMPERATURES INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50`S ON FRIDAY FOR PHL. HOWEVER
WITH CLOUDS MOVING IN IT WILL BE HARD TO REACH THESE AND KEPT
HIGHS IN THE MID 50`S WITH SOME UPPER 40`S NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500 MB: A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THIS
WEEKEND MOVES TO THE MARITIMES EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE A WARMING RIDGE
FOLLOWS EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER TROUGH EVOLVES IN THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES LATER NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES: BY THE TIME OF WE`VE CLOSED OUT A MONTH OF OCTOBER
THAT AVERAGED MORE THAN 2 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NOVEMBER STARTS OUT
NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY...5 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL SUNDAY WITH WIND...
STILL NEARLY 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY BUT WITH LESS WIND AND
THEN NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY AND SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE WEDNESDAY AND
NEXT THURSDAY....MAYBE AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EITHER
DAY.

HAZARDS: GALE SATURDAY POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SUNDAY. POSSIBLE
MINOR TIDAL INUNDATION FLOODING NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BUT THIS IS NOT LIKELY. A SMALL CHANCE OF
SPOTTY WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS SUNDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/30 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN THAT VALUE
BLENDED 50 PCT WITH THE 00Z/30 ECMWF 2M TEMPS. 12Z/30 GFS MOS COMPRISES
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN THEREAFTER (MONDAY ONWARD) THE
1523Z/30 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES IS BLENDED 50 50 WITH
THE 12Z/30 MEXMOS. ALL THIS WAS EVENTUALLY CHECKED AGAINST THE
12Z/30 ECMWF THROUGH TUESDAY ONLY WHERE WE MODIFIED THE NCEP
GUIDANCE HIGHER BY SEVERAL DEGREES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY!

THE REMAINDER..WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND..OF THE 12Z/30 OPERATIONAL ECMWF
DID NOT ARRIVE IN A TIMELY FASHION AND WAS NOT USED FOR THIS FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/30
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z MONDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/30
GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES BELOW...

FRIDAY NIGHT...PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING WESTWARD THROUGH NJ...POSSIBLY
DURING THE EVENING TRICK OR TREAT TIME. CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST DETAILS
IS AVERAGE.

SATURDAY...COOLER THAN NORMAL AND BRISK WITH NORTHERLY GUSTS 20-30 MPH.
RAIN PROBABLE AT TIMES SE PA THROUGH SOUTHERN-CENTRAL NJ AND PROBABLY
SOUTH ONTO THE DELMARVA. 15Z SREF IS DRIER THAN I`D LIKE TO SEE FOR
SATURDAY. SO THE COMBINATION OF THE LATE ARRIVING ECMWF AND SPREAD IN
SOLUTIONS LOWERS MY CONFIDENCE ON SATURDAYS FORECAST TO ONLY AVERAGE.

SUNDAY...WINDY AND MAYBE 5 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTS 30-40 MPH. ISOLATED WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA POSSIBLE.
THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST THAN THE 12Z ECMWF AND SO MY CONFIDENCE ON
MAX WIND GUST IS BELOW AVERAGE. DIURNAL SC FOR SUNSHINE HIDING
BEHIND INCREASING MIDDAY SC. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF BUT AS YET
UNMENTIONED...FOR AN AFTERNOON SPRINKLE WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH
ALOFT PASSAGE. IF THE SPRINKLES MATERIALIZE...IT WOULD BE A SNOW
SHOWER IN THE POCONOS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FROST FREEZE PORTION FOR OUR FORECAST AREA ENDS
NOVEMBER 1 SO DESPITE THE FORECAST OF FROST OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...A HEADLINE WILL NOT BE
ISSUED. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ARRIVING AROUND
DAWN.

MONDAY...DIMINISHED WIND AND MILDER. MID LVL CLOUD COVER. WEST
WIND GUST 15 MPH. THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS RAISED BY 4 DEGREES DUE TO
THE MUCH MILDER 12Z/30 ECMWF 2M TEMPS.

TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER.  THIS SHOULD BE
A NICE DAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

WEDNESDAY...PROBABLY STILL NICE. MAYBE A SHOWER DEVELOPS LATE.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

THURSDAY...MAYBE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS OTHERWISE...THE NEXT TROUGH...A
COOL FRONT MAY BE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN USA. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CLOUD COVER IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH BASES
FROM 3,500-5,000 FEET, VARYING FROM BROKEN TO SCATTERED FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET. WITH A DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN, NO FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER VFR DAY IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS AROUND 4,000 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTER 18Z SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE AT ACY. EXPECT ANY MVFR CEILINGS TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT RAIN MAKER.


OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR CIGS MAY LOWER TO MVFR CIGS LATE. -SHRA SHOULD
BE DEVELOPING OVER NJ POSSIBLY RESULTING IN MVFR VSBY AS WELL.

SATURDAY...MVFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDS IN SHOWERS ACROSS SE
PA...THE DELMARVA...S AND CENTRAL NJ. NORTHERLY WINDS GUST 20-30
KT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUSTY NNW WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE ESPECIALLY AT
KACY.

SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. NW WIND GUSTS 23-33KT DIMINISHING
AT NIGHT. CIGS NEAR 3500 FT IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON MAY YIELD AN
ISOLATED SPRINKLE (EXCEPT FLURRY POCONOS?).

MONDAY...VFR WITH BKN CIGS AOA 10000 FT. W-NW WIND GUSTING 15 KT.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AND WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER SOME WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
BY FRIDAY EVENING OFF THE DELAWARE COAST.

OUTLOOK...
HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED. TIMING OF THE ONSET OF GALE FORCE
GUSTS IS STILL UNCERTAIN AND IF THIS GALE IS DELAYED TIL SATURDAY
EVENING...I WANTED AN SCA TO PRECEDE.

THE 12Z/30 GFS WW3 MODELED SEAS WERE INCREASED BY 2-3 FT SATURDAY
THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS WILL BUILD INTO SCA CRITERIA,
AND THEN GALES, WITH PEAK GUSTS NEAR 40KT POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. GALE CONDITIONS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THROUGH THIS PERIOD THOUGH SCA SEAS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY MONDAY?

TUESDAY...NO HEADLINE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN ONSHORE COMPONENT OF THE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY
WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WATER LEVELS THIS WEEKEND. MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING MAY OCCUR WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME WE THINK IT UNLIKELY BUT WE STILL ARE MONITORING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG  417
NEAR TERM...GAINES 417
SHORT TERM...GAINES 417
LONG TERM...DRAG 417
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES 417
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES 417
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...417







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 302013
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
413 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY.
MEANWHILE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MIDDAY SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED SFC COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE,
EXTENDING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. MEANWHILE, ~1022 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE RGN FM THE WNW. ALOFT, 2 MAIN PLAYERS
ARE A SHORTWAVE CUTTING ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE
OZARKS WITH A SECOND, STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES THIS AFTN.

FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH BUILDS
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. FORECAST LOW TEMPS EARLY FRI MORNING INTO
THE M/U30S INLAND TO ~ 50F ALONG SE COASTAL AREAS...UNDER A CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.

FRIDAY BEGINS MOSTLY CLEAR, WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS LATE
AFTN/FRIDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION DAY AS WEAKER
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE OZARKS CARVES OUT AN EAST COAST
TROUGH INTO THE DEEP SOUTH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, STRONGER NORTHERN
PLAINS TROUGH DROPS SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTN. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW AND STRONG SFC
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AFTN AND EVENING.

ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, HV MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY. MODEL
CROSS SECTIONS STILL SHOWING A GOOD DEAL OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR THAT
WL NEED TO BE OVERCOME...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON POP UNTIL AFTER DARK
FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. OTHERWISE, NOTHING MORE THAN
INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS TOMORROW AFTN/EVENING WITH HIGHS IN
THE U50S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTHEAST INCLUDING ALONG THE COAST. DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST TRICK OR TREATERS TOMORROW, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF A FEW SPRINKLES POTENTIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST ALONG THE
COASTAL FRONT AND OVER THE PIEDMONT AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

SYNOPTIC REVIEW: STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL DIG CONTINUE TO DIG
SOUTH FROM THE TN VALLEY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH ON SATURDAY. GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT DEPICTING UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER THE CAROLINAS
MIDDAY SAT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SPIN-UP SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS
OFFSHORE OF THE NC COAST SAT AFTN/EVENING, BEFORE QUICKLY EJECTING
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE SAT NGT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
COOL 1030+MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE EAST FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

FORECAST DETAILS/CONCERNS: 12Z/THU SUITE OF MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. BREEZY OVERALL ON SATURDAY, WITH BEST SURGE OF
CAA LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL SAT NGT. GIVEN FCST OF HOW FAR S UPR
LVL SYSTEM TRACKS, MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS APPEAR TO BE OVER FOR
ERN/SERN CSTL LOCATIONS (PRIMARILY) FM MIDDAY SAT INTO EARLY SAT
EVENING. ADDITIONALLY, A PERIOD OF STRONG NNE WNDS (35-45 MPH)
EXPECTED ALONG COASTAL ZONES W/AREAS OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG
THE ATLC BEACHES (SEE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW). WILL
HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN HWO. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
OVER AT LEAST SOME OF OUR COASTAL ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT FOR A 6-10
HOUR PERIOD IF CURRENT FORECAST RATIONALE PANS OUT.

PCPN WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING WAVE...AND SKY CLEARS OUT QUICKLY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SINKS FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
USHER IN THE COOLEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO DATE AND A WIDESPREAD
FROST/FREEZE IS EXPECTED TO FOR MOST LOCATIONS JUST INLAND MONDAY
MORNING..

FOR TEMPERATURES, WIDESPREAD CLOUDS, INCREASING RAIN CHCS WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR MOST ON SATURDAY, WITH TEMPS POTENTIALLY NOT
MAKING IT OUT OF THE 40S WELL INLAND. WELL MIXED ATM/BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT
STILL CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S INLAND TO LOW 40S ALONG THE
COAST. DESPITE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY, ONGOING CAA WILL KEEP HIGHS
SUNDAY IN THE 50S...OR ROUGHLY -1 TO -1.5 STD DEV FROM CLIMO.
THE SFC HIGH LOCATES ALONG THE SE COAST ON MONDAY, WITH RESULTANT
LOW LEVEL SW FLOW ALLOWING FOR A MODEST WARMUP MONDAY...INTO THE
U50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. BY
MONDAY MORNING LOWS SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 30-32 FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA (UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN FAVORED COLD SPOTS)...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER VALUES (35-40) FOR FAR SE PORTIONS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS FALL ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. A SLOW MODERATING TREND IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM 55-60...WITH MID/UPPER 60S POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER COOL TUESDAY MORNING
RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 30S INTERIOR TO LOW 40S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS. LOWS SHOULD MODERATE INTO THE MID 40S/LOW 50S WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH THE HIGH WELL OFFSHORE AND THE RESUMPTION OF SSW FLOW.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND TRACKS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME MOISTURE APPEARS RATHER LIMITED WITH
THIS FRONT...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS ARE INCLUDED AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HI PRES WILL BLD INTO AND OVR THE AREA TNGT INTO FRI MORNG...THEN
DISSIPATES OVR THE REGION FRI AFTN. UA/SFC LO PRES WILL THEN
AFFECT THE REGION FRI EVENG INTO SAT NGT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
INTO FRI EVENG...THEN LWR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE DUE TO RAIN FRI NGT
INTO SAT NGT. HI PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUN AND MON.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN NNE FLOW AVERAGING
10-15KT...WITH 2-3FT SEAS AND 1-2FT WAVES IN THE BAY (2-3FT AT THE
MOUTH OF THE BAY). THE HIGH WEAKENS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FIRST WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE PULLS QUICKLY TO THE NE. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...WITH A STRONGER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENING OFF THE OUTER BANKS SATURDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG CAA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. A NNW
WIND IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND A
PERIOD OF GALE CONDITIONS IS LIKELY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SCA CONDITIONS LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL ZONES BUT
THE RAPPAHANNOCK/YORK/UPPER JAMES BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND RUNNING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE BAY/SOUND/LOWER
JAMES...AND MID-MORNING FOR THE OCEAN. THIS IS RATHER EARLY FOR A
GALE WATCH...BUT THE FLAG HAS BEEN RAISED GIVEN A RATHER HIGH
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. A RAMP UP SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NRN OCEAN
ZONES (N OF PARRAMORE) TO ACCOUNT FOR A LONGER NE PUSH...WHICH COULD
BUILD SEAS TO 5-7FT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. 12Z DATA INDICATES
RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING OFF THE OUTER BANKS...SO GIVEN THIS
THERE IS MUCH LESS OF A CHANCE OF A SHORT DURATION PERIOD OF STORM
FORCE GUSTS SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE WIND BACKING FROM NW TO SW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN OFF THE COAST LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 1-1.5FT
ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
AND LOWER BAY. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IF THE SURGE
COINCIDES DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>634-638.
     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/MAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301842
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
242 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WITH COOL AIR ALOFT...STRATOCU IS EXPD TO CONT INTO THE
EVE...THOUGH THESE SHOULD DCR SOME ERLY THIS EVE AS WK HIGH PRES
BLDS IN. SOME ISOLD LGT SHWRS N-E OF PIT SHOULD DSPT AS WELL WITH
THE BLDG HIGH. CLDS WL INCR AGAIN LTR TNGT AHD OF THE NXT ADVNG
SHRTWV. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE A LTL BLO THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A DEEPENING UPR TROF AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WL ADVN ACRS THE GT
LKS FRI WITH INCRG SHWR CHCS FRI. THE DEEP UPR TROF WL RMN ACRS
THE ERN CONUS SAT WITH A MOISTURE SWATH AND OMEGA ACRS MUCH OF THE
RGN...KEEPING CHCS FOR PCPN. COLDER AIR IS EXPD TO BEGIN TO MOVE
IN BEHIND THE INITIAL SFC LOW AS N-NE FLOW DVLPS FRI NGT INTO SAT.
CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE THIS COULD
ALLOW FOR A LTL SNW TO MIX IN WITH RAIN SHWRS AT TIMES SAT
MRNG...BUT A WRM BNDRY LYR SHOULD LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL AND PREVENT
ANY ACCUMS OUTSIDE OF THE RIDGES SE OF PIT. IN THE RIDGES...EXP A
GRDL CHG OVR TO MAINLY SNW SAT IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. GENLY
EXP A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNW IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN GRASSY
AREAS BEFORE THE PCPN BEGINS TO DMNSH SAT NGT. THE UPSLOPE
COMPONENT IS LTD WITH N-NE FLOW...AND MOISTURE BEGINS TO DMNSH BY
THE TIME NW UPSLOPE FLOW DVLPS.

BLDG HIGH PRES AND DRY WEA IS PROGGED FOR SUN. TEMPS SHOULD AVG
BLO SEASONAL LVLS THRU THE WKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD WHICH WAS BASED ON GEFS/ECENS MEANS.
A COLD SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES...WITH
READINGS CLOSE TO SEASONAL BY TUESDAY AS A FLAT UPPER RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH. ANOTHER...MUCH MORE SHALLOW TROUGH IS
PROJECTED FOR A MID WEEK...WITH PROMISE OF AN UNSETTLED END TO THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRATOCU BLANKET WL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE UPR OH TERMINALS INTO THIS
EVE...BUT GENL VFR/HIGH END MVFR WL BE PREDOMINATE.  OTHRWISE...LGT
SFC WIND WL VEER TO THE SW AND S LATE TNGT AS UPSTREAM SHRTWV
ADVNS...BUT GENL CONDITION DETERIORATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH
THAT SYSTEM UNTIL WELL AFTR DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED BY FRIDAY EVE AS DEEPENING LOW
PRES SHUNTS A BROAD MSTR SWATH OVR THE UPR OH REGION. ENSUING
UPSLOPING COLD ADVCTN WL THEN MAINTAIN SHWR AND STRATOCU POTENTIAL
UNTIL SFC HIGH STRENGTHENS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/15






000
FXUS61 KLWX 301841
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
241 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER KENTUCKY WILL TRACK EAST TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DESCEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO COASTAL CAROLINA
SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

NO PROBS FORESEEN TNGT. HIGH PRES OVR THE AREA. GIVEN GNRLY CLR
SKIES OVRHD LOWS W OF I-95 WL DROP INTO THE U30S..LM40S E. HIGHS
XPCTD TO DROP BLO FRZG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

CHALLENGING FCST FOR THE FOLLOWING 36 HRS. N AMERICAN W.V. STLT
SHOWS A DIGGING TROF IN THE ERN PACIFIC...RIDGING W OF THE ROCKIES
W/ A SHORT WV NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG HEADING TOWARDS N DAKOTA.

THE RDG WL BE TRACKING E OF THE ROCKIES FRI...W/ THE SHORT WV
REACHING THE NRN GRT LAKES FRI MRNG. THIS WL BECOME THE PRIMARY
PLAYER IN THE FCST FOR FRI NGT. AHEAD OF THAT FRI SHOULD SEE
INCRSG CLDS W/ RLVTVLY WARM TEMPS TO END OCT - HIGHS CLOSE TO 60
WHICH IS CLOSE TO CLIMO NORMS.

HALLOWEEN EVENING SHOULD BE FAIRLY PLSNT W/ TEMPS IN THE LM50S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THERE WL BE CHCS OF RAIN W/ OF I-81 DURG
THE EVE.

MDLS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SHORT WV SHOULD BE DIVING
ACROSS KY/TN FRI NGT...REACHING THE MTNS OF WRN NC BY SUNRISE SAT.
AS MENTIONED PCPN XPCTD TO BEGIN IN THE W DURG THE LATE AFTN
FRI...BUT BETTER CHCS WL DVLP FRI NGT W/ THE DEEPENING UPR LOW.
QUSTN TURNS TO THREAT OF WINTRY PCPN: AT THIS TIME THINK THIS WL
BE PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY ELEVATION - THE 850-1000 TCKNS LN IS STILL
WELL ABV 1300M ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA FRI NGT. BLV THAT WINTRY PCPN THAT
FALLS FRI NGT COULD BE A RA/WET SNOW MIX THAT BECOMES LARGE WET
FLAKES AT THE HIGER ELEVS.

LOWS FRI NGT IN THE LM40S. L30S IN THE HIGHLANDS.

ON SAT THE UPR LOW WL BE PUSHING OFF THE SC CST. THIS WL KEEP THE
MID ATLC CLDY AND SHOWERY. MOISTURE WRAPPING ARND THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW WL CONT TO SPAWN SNSH AT THE HIGHER ELEVS DURG THE DAY. BY
LATE SAT SVRL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION WL BE PSBL...BUT ONLY IN THE
HIGHLANDS.

HIGHS SAT IN THE L50S E OF I-81...MU30S IN THE HIGHLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

A COASTAL STORM SYSTEM ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA WILL TRACK
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OFFSHORE AND INTENSIFY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SATURDAY
EVENING BEFORE COMING TO AN END SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME LINGERING RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD STILL EXIST AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AS WE WILL HAVE A GOOD UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE
WIND FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND COLDER AIR FILTERING IN AHEAD OF A
BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION
AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL TENTH OF AN INCH OR
TWO. STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND MIDDLE 30S
ALONG THE BAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...USHERING IN A RE-INFORCING SHOT OF CHILLY AIR TO ONLY ALLOW
OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MIDDLE 40S AS FAR EAST AS THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY. STRONG GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT. AS A MATTER OF
FACT...DUE TO DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO FALL TO A RESULT OF WIDESPREAD LOWER 30S ACROSS THE BOARD.

AS THE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY
SOME DURING THE DAY BUT REMAIN A LITTLE ON THE CHILLY SIDE MONDAY
NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO GRADUALLY SLIDE INTO THE REGION AND BRING A
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLER AIR WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL PUSH THE
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AS WELL AS BRING A FEW ADDITIONAL RAIN
SHOWERS. THIS HIGH WILL BUILD IN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR CONDS TNGT AND FRI. CIGS XPCTD TO DIMINISH FRI NGT. MVFR CONDS
XPCTD SAT.

MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP NEAR BWI AND MTN TERMINALS SATURDAY
EVENING WITH LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AT ALL TERMINALS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
AVERAGE 15 TO 25 KNOTS GUSTING 30 TO 35 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA VALUES TNGT THRU FRI NGT. SCA LKLY NEED SAT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. GALE CONDS PSBL FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SAT EVE AND SUN.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY EVENING AS WELL.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS AND THEN
TRACK NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF HIGHER THAN
NORMAL TIDES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...FOLLOWED BY BLOWOUT CONDITIONS
SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/KLW








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 301815
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
215 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY.
MEANWHILE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MIDDAY SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED SFC CDFNT WELL OFFSHORE, EXTENDING
INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. MEANWHILE, ~1022MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE RGN FM THE WNW. LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO
THE GOING FORECAST FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. MOSTLY SUNNY INLAND
WITH CONTINUED CLEARING OVER SE ZONES THROUGH THE AFTN. AFTN HIGH
TEMPS RANGING FM THE L/M60S NNW TO M/U60S SSE.

SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPS INTO THE
M/U30S INLAND TO ARND 50F ALG SE CSTL AREAS...UNDER A CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FA TO BE IN BETWEEN FNTL BNDRY (WELL) OFF THE CST AND STRONG UPR
LVL SYS DIVING SE FM THE LAKES/OH VLY FRI INTO FRI NGT. STARTING
OUT CLEAR FRI MRNG...WITH VRB/INCRSG CLDS THROUGH THE AFTN. HI
TEMPS FM THE U50S FAR NW TO L/M60S ELSW.

ALL MDLS CONT TO SHOW DYNAMIC WX SYS DEVELOP INVOF MDATLC CST FM
LT FRI THROUGH SAT. STRONG UPR LVL LO PRES CONTS TO DIVE ESE
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS...WHILE AT SAME TIME...SFC LO PRES SLOWLY
DEVELOPS OFF THE CST (INVOF LINGERING FNTL BNDRY). GIVEN FCST OF
HOW FAR S UPR LVL SYS TRACKS...MOST SGFNT IMPACTS FM THIS STORM
SITUATION APR TO BE FOR ERN/CSTL LOCATIONS (PRIMARILY) FM SAT AFTN
INTO 1ST PART OF SAT NGT. POPS TO INCRS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
SAT...W/ HIGHEST POPS (60-80%) NR THE CST...TO MNLY 30-50% POPS
ELSW. ADDITIONALLY...INCRSG CONCERN TO STRONG NNE WNDS (TO 35-45
MPH) NR THE CST ALONG W/ MINOR TO PTNTLLY MODERATE CSTL FLOODING
(INVOF SRN BAY...ALG THE ATLC BEACHES). WILL HIGHLIGHT PTNTL
IMPACTS IN HWO.

LO TEMPS FRI NGT MNLY IN THE L/M40S INLAND TO ARND 50F AT THE
IMMEDIATE CST. HI TEMPS SAT IN THE L/M50S INLAND TO ARND 60F NR
THE CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WINDY/RAINY SAT EVE (CLOSE TO THE CST) AS STM STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE.
THE SFC LO BEGINS TO EXIT THE MDATLC CSTL WTRS AFT MDNGT SAT NGT.
CLRG FM THE W WILL BEGIN AFT 03-06Z/02.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY...BEFORE
SETTLING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HIGHS SUNDAY
SHOULD ONLY RISE TO 50-55 UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AS CAA
CONTINUES. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS FALLING TO AROUND 30-32 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
(UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN FAVORED COLD SPOTS)...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
VALUES (35-40) FOR FAR SE PORTIONS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS FALL
(INLAND) ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A SLOW MODERATING TREND IS
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES
OFFSHORE. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 55-60...WITH LOW/MID 60S
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER COOL
TUESDAY MORNING RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 30S INTERIOR TO LOW 40S
FOR SE COASTAL LOCATIONS. LOWS SHOULD MODERATE INTO THE LOW/MID
40S WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW WITH
RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HI PRES WILL BLD INTO AND OVR THE AREA TNGT INTO FRI MORNG...THEN
DISSIPATES OVR THE REGION FRI AFTN. UA/SFC LO PRES WILL THEN
AFFECT THE REGION FRI EVENG INTO SAT NGT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
INTO FRI EVENG...THEN LWR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE DUE TO RAIN FRI NGT
INTO SAT NGT. HI PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUN AND MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA`S HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THRU 10AM FOR CSTL WTRS S OF THE VA/NC
BORDER WHERE 5 FT SEAS PERSIST...AND CURRITUCK SOUND DUE TO 15-20
KT WINDS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS HAVE COMMENCED OVR THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY SO HEADLINES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED THERE. FOR TDA...EXPECT N
WINDS AVGG 10-15 KT AS A COLD FRNT PUSHES S OF THE AREA AND BROAD
SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. SIMILAR WINDS INTO TNGT WITH WEAK HI
PRES OVR THE MID ATLANTIC. THE HI DISSIPATES BY FRI...WITH
CONDITIONS REMAINING SUB-SCA (10-15 KT N WINDS AND 2-3 FT SEAS).

A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY STRONG CAA LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. A NNW
WIND IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND A PERIOD
OF GALE CONDITIONS IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SCA CONDITIONS LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. IF RAPID CYCLOGENESIS EVENTUALLY OCCURS OFF THE VA COAST A
BRIEF PERIOD OF STORM FORCE GUSTS IS POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER BAY AND
OCEAN DURING THE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/SATURDAY EVENING TIMEFRAME.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THEN
SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/ESS
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAS







000
FXUS61 KPHI 301728
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
128 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION TODAY. BY TOMORROW, A LOW
WILL BEGIN TO DIG SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SAME
TIME, AN OFF SHORE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST. BY SATURDAY NIGHT, THE
TWO LOWS WILL MERGE OFF SHORE RESULTING IN COOL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR OUR REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG HAS BURNED OUT THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
FILTER ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH THE 9:30 AM
UPDATE WE SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED SOME OF THE TEMPERATURES DUE TO
MORNING FOR OR THE LACK THEREOF. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK. STILL THINK 60 IS A REASONABLE EXPECTATION AT PHL GIVEN
QUICK RESPONSE IN TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING.

TODAY SHOULD END UP BEING A PRETTY NICE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO OUR WEST AND TRIES TO PUSH INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS. A
SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING,
ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA AS ANY PRECIP TO
THE NORTHWEST SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE IT GETS HERE. SOME STRATOCU
WILL MOVE DOWN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND HAVE RAISED
SKY COVER NW OF PHL FOR THIS. A PATCHY AREA OF CLOUDS WILL IMPACT
SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY HERE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WELL.

HIGHS TODAY WERE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND BLENDED ECMWF 925MB
TEMPS WHICH KEEPS EVERYONE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT,
ALTHOUGH WE ARE STILL EXPECTING A QUIET NIGHT. ANY CLOUDS FROM THE
DAY SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED EARLY IN THE NIGHT, BEFORE A RETURN OF SOME CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS WHICH KEEPS
EVERYONE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE BIGGEST STORY THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE LOW THAT DIGS
SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY, SLIDING OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST SATURDAY AND MERGING WITH AN OFF SHORE LOW.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH WE WILL TECHNICALLY STILL BE IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM, IT WON`T FEEL MUCH LIKE IT. THANKS
TO THE OFF SHORE SURFACE LOW, ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
RATHER EARLY IN THE DAY FRIDAY LEADING TO COOL AND CLOUDY WEATHER.
EXPECT MOST LOCATION TO SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS IT LIKELY WON`T GET OUT OF
THE 40S. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONTINENTAL LOW COULD BEGIN
TO MOVE INTO THE POCONOS FROM THE WEST AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, THE ONSHORE FLOW COULD RESULT IN LIGHT
PRECIP ALONG THE COAST. BY FRIDAY NIGHT, EXPECT THE ONSHORE, AND
UPSLOPE FLOW TO RESULT IN LIGHT PRECIP FURTHER INLAND.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE NOW OCCLUDED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY, BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS. ONE
INTERESTING THING TO WATCH WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE DRIER AIR MOVES
IN. IF THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS DRY OUT AS QUICKLY AS THE GFS IS
SUGGESTING, SNOW SEEMS VERY UNLIKELY AS BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING,
ONLY THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE NEARLY SATURATED. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST MORE OF A DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT. HOWEVER, THE
ECMWF AND NAM STILL SHOW SOME CHANCE OF SEEDER FEEDER CLOUDS
THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
FOR THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY. EVEN IF PRECIP DOES CHANGE
OVER, PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE, THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT MUCH OF THE REGION TO SEE LOWS NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING, INCLUDING THE 15 REMAINING COUNTIES (PRIMARILY IN
DELMARVA, THE URBAN CORRIDOR, AND FAR SOUTHERN NJ) THAT HAVE NOT
YET HAD A HARD FREEZE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A BROAD HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD EAST. EXPECT MODEST WARMING EACH DAY THANKS BOTH TO AIR MASS
MODIFICATION AD INCREASING 1000-500MB THICKNESSES.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...COULD SEE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DISAGREE ABOUT TIMING AND TRACK
OF THIS FEATURE. THUS, HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CLOUD COVER IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH
BASES AROUND 3,500-5,000 FEET, AND SHOULD VARY FROM BROKEN TO
SCATTERED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET. WITH A DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN, NO FOG IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER VFR DAY IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS AROUND 4,000 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT ANY MVFR CEILINGS
TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT RAIN MAKER.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: -SHRA COULD MOVE IN BY FRIDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN
OCCASIONAL MVFR VISIBILITIES.

SATURDAY...IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY MORNING. BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. BREEZY NW WINDS MAY CONTINUE ESPECIALLY AT ACY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IT`S WAY ACROSS THE AREA FROM
THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS WILL BUILD INTO SCA CRITERIA,
AND THEN GALES, WITH PEAK GUSTS NEAR 40KT POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY. GALE CONDITIONS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WINDS WILL STAY IN SCA CRITERIA THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN ONSHORE COMPONENT OF THE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY
WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WATER LEVELS THIS WEEKEND. MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING MAY OCCUR WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...GAINES/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JOHNSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 301728
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
128 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION TODAY. BY TOMORROW, A LOW
WILL BEGIN TO DIG SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SAME
TIME, AN OFF SHORE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST. BY SATURDAY NIGHT, THE
TWO LOWS WILL MERGE OFF SHORE RESULTING IN COOL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR OUR REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG HAS BURNED OUT THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
FILTER ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH THE 9:30 AM
UPDATE WE SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED SOME OF THE TEMPERATURES DUE TO
MORNING FOR OR THE LACK THEREOF. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK. STILL THINK 60 IS A REASONABLE EXPECTATION AT PHL GIVEN
QUICK RESPONSE IN TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING.

TODAY SHOULD END UP BEING A PRETTY NICE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO OUR WEST AND TRIES TO PUSH INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS. A
SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING,
ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA AS ANY PRECIP TO
THE NORTHWEST SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE IT GETS HERE. SOME STRATOCU
WILL MOVE DOWN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND HAVE RAISED
SKY COVER NW OF PHL FOR THIS. A PATCHY AREA OF CLOUDS WILL IMPACT
SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY HERE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WELL.

HIGHS TODAY WERE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND BLENDED ECMWF 925MB
TEMPS WHICH KEEPS EVERYONE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT,
ALTHOUGH WE ARE STILL EXPECTING A QUIET NIGHT. ANY CLOUDS FROM THE
DAY SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED EARLY IN THE NIGHT, BEFORE A RETURN OF SOME CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS WHICH KEEPS
EVERYONE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE BIGGEST STORY THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE LOW THAT DIGS
SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY, SLIDING OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST SATURDAY AND MERGING WITH AN OFF SHORE LOW.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH WE WILL TECHNICALLY STILL BE IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM, IT WON`T FEEL MUCH LIKE IT. THANKS
TO THE OFF SHORE SURFACE LOW, ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
RATHER EARLY IN THE DAY FRIDAY LEADING TO COOL AND CLOUDY WEATHER.
EXPECT MOST LOCATION TO SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS IT LIKELY WON`T GET OUT OF
THE 40S. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONTINENTAL LOW COULD BEGIN
TO MOVE INTO THE POCONOS FROM THE WEST AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, THE ONSHORE FLOW COULD RESULT IN LIGHT
PRECIP ALONG THE COAST. BY FRIDAY NIGHT, EXPECT THE ONSHORE, AND
UPSLOPE FLOW TO RESULT IN LIGHT PRECIP FURTHER INLAND.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE NOW OCCLUDED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY, BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS. ONE
INTERESTING THING TO WATCH WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE DRIER AIR MOVES
IN. IF THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS DRY OUT AS QUICKLY AS THE GFS IS
SUGGESTING, SNOW SEEMS VERY UNLIKELY AS BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING,
ONLY THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE NEARLY SATURATED. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST MORE OF A DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT. HOWEVER, THE
ECMWF AND NAM STILL SHOW SOME CHANCE OF SEEDER FEEDER CLOUDS
THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
FOR THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY. EVEN IF PRECIP DOES CHANGE
OVER, PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE, THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT MUCH OF THE REGION TO SEE LOWS NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING, INCLUDING THE 15 REMAINING COUNTIES (PRIMARILY IN
DELMARVA, THE URBAN CORRIDOR, AND FAR SOUTHERN NJ) THAT HAVE NOT
YET HAD A HARD FREEZE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A BROAD HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD EAST. EXPECT MODEST WARMING EACH DAY THANKS BOTH TO AIR MASS
MODIFICATION AD INCREASING 1000-500MB THICKNESSES.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...COULD SEE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DISAGREE ABOUT TIMING AND TRACK
OF THIS FEATURE. THUS, HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CLOUD COVER IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH
BASES AROUND 3,500-5,000 FEET, AND SHOULD VARY FROM BROKEN TO
SCATTERED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET. WITH A DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN, NO FOG IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER VFR DAY IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS AROUND 4,000 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT ANY MVFR CEILINGS
TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT RAIN MAKER.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: -SHRA COULD MOVE IN BY FRIDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN
OCCASIONAL MVFR VISIBILITIES.

SATURDAY...IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY MORNING. BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. BREEZY NW WINDS MAY CONTINUE ESPECIALLY AT ACY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IT`S WAY ACROSS THE AREA FROM
THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS WILL BUILD INTO SCA CRITERIA,
AND THEN GALES, WITH PEAK GUSTS NEAR 40KT POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY. GALE CONDITIONS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WINDS WILL STAY IN SCA CRITERIA THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN ONSHORE COMPONENT OF THE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY
WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WATER LEVELS THIS WEEKEND. MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING MAY OCCUR WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...GAINES/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JOHNSON







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 301627
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1227 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY.
MEANWHILE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MIDDAY SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED SFC CDFNT WELL OFFSHORE, EXTENDING
INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. MEANWHILE, ~1022MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE RGN FM THE WNW. LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO
THE GOING FORECAST FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. MOSTLY SUNNY INLAND
WITH CONTINUED CLEARING OVER SE ZONES THROUGH THE AFTN. AFTN HIGH
TEMPS RANGING FM THE L/M60S NNW TO M/U60S SSE.

SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPS INTO THE
M/U30S INLAND TO ARND 50F ALG SE CSTL AREAS...UNDER A CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FA TO BE IN BETWEEN FNTL BNDRY (WELL) OFF THE CST AND STRONG UPR
LVL SYS DIVING SE FM THE LAKES/OH VLY FRI INTO FRI NGT. STARTING
OUT CLEAR FRI MRNG...WITH VRB/INCRSG CLDS THROUGH THE AFTN. HI
TEMPS FM THE U50S FAR NW TO L/M60S ELSW.

ALL MDLS CONT TO SHOW DYNAMIC WX SYS DEVELOP INVOF MDATLC CST FM
LT FRI THROUGH SAT. STRONG UPR LVL LO PRES CONTS TO DIVE ESE
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS...WHILE AT SAME TIME...SFC LO PRES SLOWLY
DEVELOPS OFF THE CST (INVOF LINGERING FNTL BNDRY). GIVEN FCST OF
HOW FAR S UPR LVL SYS TRACKS...MOST SGFNT IMPACTS FM THIS STORM
SITUATION APR TO BE FOR ERN/CSTL LOCATIONS (PRIMARILY) FM SAT AFTN
INTO 1ST PART OF SAT NGT. POPS TO INCRS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
SAT...W/ HIGHEST POPS (60-80%) NR THE CST...TO MNLY 30-50% POPS
ELSW. ADDITIONALLY...INCRSG CONCERN TO STRONG NNE WNDS (TO 35-45
MPH) NR THE CST ALONG W/ MINOR TO PTNTLLY MODERATE CSTL FLOODING
(INVOF SRN BAY...ALG THE ATLC BEACHES). WILL HIGHLIGHT PTNTL
IMPACTS IN HWO.

LO TEMPS FRI NGT MNLY IN THE L/M40S INLAND TO ARND 50F AT THE
IMMEDIATE CST. HI TEMPS SAT IN THE L/M50S INLAND TO ARND 60F NR
THE CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WINDY/RAINY SAT EVE (CLOSE TO THE CST) AS STM STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE.
THE SFC LO BEGINS TO EXIT THE MDATLC CSTL WTRS AFT MDNGT SAT NGT.
CLRG FM THE W WILL BEGIN AFT 03-06Z/02.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY...BEFORE
SETTLING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HIGHS SUNDAY
SHOULD ONLY RISE TO 50-55 UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AS CAA
CONTINUES. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS FALLING TO AROUND 30-32 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
(UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN FAVORED COLD SPOTS)...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
VALUES (35-40) FOR FAR SE PORTIONS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS FALL
(INLAND) ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A SLOW MODERATING TREND IS
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES
OFFSHORE. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 55-60...WITH LOW/MID 60S
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER COOL
TUESDAY MORNING RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 30S INTERIOR TO LOW 40S
FOR SE COASTAL LOCATIONS. LOWS SHOULD MODERATE INTO THE LOW/MID
40S WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW WITH
RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH OF THE REGION AS OF 12Z...WITH WINDS NOW
AVGG OUT OF THE N AOB 10 KT. CHANCES OF RAIN HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH JUST THE OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME IFR/MVFR FOG FOR
ANOTHER HR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. HI PRES
BLDS IN FM THE W THIS AFTN...REMAINING OVR THE AREA AND
DISSIPATING THRU FRI AFTN. UA/SFC LO PRES WILL THEN AFFECT THE
REGION LATE FRI NGT INTO SAT NGT WITH PCPN AND LWR CIGS/VSBYS PSBL.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA`S HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THRU 10AM FOR CSTL WTRS S OF THE VA/NC
BORDER WHERE 5 FT SEAS PERSIST...AND CURRITUCK SOUND DUE TO 15-20
KT WINDS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS HAVE COMMENCED OVR THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY SO HEADLINES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED THERE. FOR TDA...EXPECT N
WINDS AVGG 10-15 KT AS A COLD FRNT PUSHES S OF THE AREA AND BROAD
SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. SIMILAR WINDS INTO TNGT WITH WEAK HI
PRES OVR THE MID ATLANTIC. THE HI DISSIPATES BY FRI...WITH
CONDITIONS REMAINING SUB-SCA (10-15 KT N WINDS AND 2-3 FT SEAS).

A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY STRONG CAA LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. A NNW
WIND IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND A PERIOD
OF GALE CONDITIONS IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SCA CONDITIONS LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. IF RAPID CYCLOGENESIS EVENTUALLY OCCURS OFF THE VA COAST A
BRIEF PERIOD OF STORM FORCE GUSTS IS POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER BAY AND
OCEAN DURING THE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/SATURDAY EVENING TIMEFRAME.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THEN
SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/ESS
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 301627
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1227 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY.
MEANWHILE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MIDDAY SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED SFC CDFNT WELL OFFSHORE, EXTENDING
INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. MEANWHILE, ~1022MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE RGN FM THE WNW. LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO
THE GOING FORECAST FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. MOSTLY SUNNY INLAND
WITH CONTINUED CLEARING OVER SE ZONES THROUGH THE AFTN. AFTN HIGH
TEMPS RANGING FM THE L/M60S NNW TO M/U60S SSE.

SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPS INTO THE
M/U30S INLAND TO ARND 50F ALG SE CSTL AREAS...UNDER A CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FA TO BE IN BETWEEN FNTL BNDRY (WELL) OFF THE CST AND STRONG UPR
LVL SYS DIVING SE FM THE LAKES/OH VLY FRI INTO FRI NGT. STARTING
OUT CLEAR FRI MRNG...WITH VRB/INCRSG CLDS THROUGH THE AFTN. HI
TEMPS FM THE U50S FAR NW TO L/M60S ELSW.

ALL MDLS CONT TO SHOW DYNAMIC WX SYS DEVELOP INVOF MDATLC CST FM
LT FRI THROUGH SAT. STRONG UPR LVL LO PRES CONTS TO DIVE ESE
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS...WHILE AT SAME TIME...SFC LO PRES SLOWLY
DEVELOPS OFF THE CST (INVOF LINGERING FNTL BNDRY). GIVEN FCST OF
HOW FAR S UPR LVL SYS TRACKS...MOST SGFNT IMPACTS FM THIS STORM
SITUATION APR TO BE FOR ERN/CSTL LOCATIONS (PRIMARILY) FM SAT AFTN
INTO 1ST PART OF SAT NGT. POPS TO INCRS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
SAT...W/ HIGHEST POPS (60-80%) NR THE CST...TO MNLY 30-50% POPS
ELSW. ADDITIONALLY...INCRSG CONCERN TO STRONG NNE WNDS (TO 35-45
MPH) NR THE CST ALONG W/ MINOR TO PTNTLLY MODERATE CSTL FLOODING
(INVOF SRN BAY...ALG THE ATLC BEACHES). WILL HIGHLIGHT PTNTL
IMPACTS IN HWO.

LO TEMPS FRI NGT MNLY IN THE L/M40S INLAND TO ARND 50F AT THE
IMMEDIATE CST. HI TEMPS SAT IN THE L/M50S INLAND TO ARND 60F NR
THE CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WINDY/RAINY SAT EVE (CLOSE TO THE CST) AS STM STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE.
THE SFC LO BEGINS TO EXIT THE MDATLC CSTL WTRS AFT MDNGT SAT NGT.
CLRG FM THE W WILL BEGIN AFT 03-06Z/02.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY...BEFORE
SETTLING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HIGHS SUNDAY
SHOULD ONLY RISE TO 50-55 UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AS CAA
CONTINUES. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS FALLING TO AROUND 30-32 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
(UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN FAVORED COLD SPOTS)...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
VALUES (35-40) FOR FAR SE PORTIONS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS FALL
(INLAND) ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A SLOW MODERATING TREND IS
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES
OFFSHORE. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 55-60...WITH LOW/MID 60S
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER COOL
TUESDAY MORNING RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 30S INTERIOR TO LOW 40S
FOR SE COASTAL LOCATIONS. LOWS SHOULD MODERATE INTO THE LOW/MID
40S WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW WITH
RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH OF THE REGION AS OF 12Z...WITH WINDS NOW
AVGG OUT OF THE N AOB 10 KT. CHANCES OF RAIN HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH JUST THE OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME IFR/MVFR FOG FOR
ANOTHER HR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. HI PRES
BLDS IN FM THE W THIS AFTN...REMAINING OVR THE AREA AND
DISSIPATING THRU FRI AFTN. UA/SFC LO PRES WILL THEN AFFECT THE
REGION LATE FRI NGT INTO SAT NGT WITH PCPN AND LWR CIGS/VSBYS PSBL.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA`S HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THRU 10AM FOR CSTL WTRS S OF THE VA/NC
BORDER WHERE 5 FT SEAS PERSIST...AND CURRITUCK SOUND DUE TO 15-20
KT WINDS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS HAVE COMMENCED OVR THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY SO HEADLINES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED THERE. FOR TDA...EXPECT N
WINDS AVGG 10-15 KT AS A COLD FRNT PUSHES S OF THE AREA AND BROAD
SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. SIMILAR WINDS INTO TNGT WITH WEAK HI
PRES OVR THE MID ATLANTIC. THE HI DISSIPATES BY FRI...WITH
CONDITIONS REMAINING SUB-SCA (10-15 KT N WINDS AND 2-3 FT SEAS).

A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY STRONG CAA LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. A NNW
WIND IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND A PERIOD
OF GALE CONDITIONS IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SCA CONDITIONS LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. IF RAPID CYCLOGENESIS EVENTUALLY OCCURS OFF THE VA COAST A
BRIEF PERIOD OF STORM FORCE GUSTS IS POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER BAY AND
OCEAN DURING THE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/SATURDAY EVENING TIMEFRAME.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THEN
SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/ESS
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS








000
FXUS61 KPHI 301613
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1213 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION TODAY. BY TOMORROW, A LOW
WILL BEGIN TO DIG SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SAME
TIME, AN OFF SHORE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST. BY SATURDAY NIGHT, THE
TWO LOWS WILL MERGE OFF SHORE RESULTING IN COOL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR OUR REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG HAS BURNED OUT THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
FILTER ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH THE 9:30 AM
UPDATE WE SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED SOME OF THE TEMPERATURES DUE TO
MORNING FOR OR THE LACK THEREOF. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK. STILL THINK 60 IS A REASONABLE EXPECTATION AT PHL GIVEN
QUICK RESPONSE IN TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING.

TODAY SHOULD END UP BEING A PRETTY NICE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO OUR WEST AND TRIES TO PUSH INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS. A
SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING,
ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA AS ANY PRECIP TO
THE NORTHWEST SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE IT GETS HERE. SOME STRATOCU
WILL MOVE DOWN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND HAVE RAISED
SKY COVER NW OF PHL FOR THIS. A PATCHY AREA OF CLOUDS WILL IMPACT
SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY HERE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WELL.

HIGHS TODAY WERE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND BLENDED ECMWF 925MB
TEMPS WHICH KEEPS EVERYONE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT,
ALTHOUGH WE ARE STILL EXPECTING A QUIET NIGHT. ANY CLOUDS FROM THE
DAY SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED EARLY IN THE NIGHT, BEFORE A RETURN OF SOME CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS WHICH KEEPS
EVERYONE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE BIGGEST STORY THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE LOW THAT DIGS
SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY, SLIDING OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST SATURDAY AND MERGING WITH AN OFF SHORE LOW.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH WE WILL TECHNICALLY STILL BE IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM, IT WON`T FEEL MUCH LIKE IT. THANKS
TO THE OFF SHORE SURFACE LOW, ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
RATHER EARLY IN THE DAY FRIDAY LEADING TO COOL AND CLOUDY WEATHER.
EXPECT MOST LOCATION TO SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS IT LIKELY WON`T GET OUT OF
THE 40S. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONTINENTAL LOW COULD BEGIN
TO MOVE INTO THE POCONOS FROM THE WEST AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, THE ONSHORE FLOW COULD RESULT IN LIGHT
PRECIP ALONG THE COAST. BY FRIDAY NIGHT, EXPECT THE ONSHORE, AND
UPSLOPE FLOW TO RESULT IN LIGHT PRECIP FURTHER INLAND.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE NOW OCCLUDED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY, BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS. ONE
INTERESTING THING TO WATCH WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE DRIER AIR MOVES
IN. IF THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS DRY OUT AS QUICKLY AS THE GFS IS
SUGGESTING, SNOW SEEMS VERY UNLIKELY AS BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING,
ONLY THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE NEARLY SATURATED. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST MORE OF A DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT. HOWEVER, THE
ECMWF AND NAM STILL SHOW SOME CHANCE OF SEEDER FEEDER CLOUDS
THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
FOR THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY. EVEN IF PRECIP DOES CHANGE
OVER, PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE, THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT MUCH OF THE REGION TO SEE LOWS NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING, INCLUDING THE 15 REMAINING COUNTIES (PRIMARILY IN
DELMARVA, THE URBAN CORRIDOR, AND FAR SOUTHERN NJ) THAT HAVE NOT
YET HAD A HARD FREEZE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A BROAD HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD EAST. EXPECT MODEST WARMING EACH DAY THANKS BOTH TO AIR MASS
MODIFICATION AD INCREASING 1000-500MB THICKNESSES.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...COULD SEE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DISAGREE ABOUT TIMING AND TRACK
OF THIS FEATURE. THUS, HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CLOUD COVER IS MOVING INTO ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH
BASES AROUND 3,500-5,000 FEET, AND SHOULD VARY FROM BROKEN TO
SCATTERED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY FOG TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD BE DRY ENOUGH TO
PREVENT FOG FORMATION.

NORTH TO NORTHWEST 5-10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT, WITH ANY
DIRECTION BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...EXPECT CEILING TO LOWER THROUGH THE DAY, BECOMING MVFR AT
LEAST BY FRIDAY EVENING. -SHRA COULD MOVE IN BY FRIDAY NIGHT
RESULTING IN OCCASIONAL MVFR VISIBILITIES AS WELL

SATURDAY...IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY MORNING. BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. BREEZY NW WINDS MAY CONTINUE ESPECIALLY AT ACY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IT`S WAY ACROSS THE AREA FROM
THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS WILL BUILD INTO SCA CRITERIA,
AND THEN GALES, WITH PEAK GUSTS NEAR 40KT POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY. GALE CONDITIONS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WINDS WILL STAY IN SCA CRITERIA THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN ONSHORE COMPONENT OF THE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY
WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WATER LEVELS THIS WEEKEND. MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING MAY OCCUR WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...GAINES/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301514
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1114 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LINGERING STRATOCU BEHIND AN EXITING SHRTWV WL CONT ACRS THE AREA
INTO THE AFTN WITH COOL AIR ALOFT. SOME DCR IN CLDS IS EXPD TWD
EVE AS WK SBSDNC INCRS UNDER BLDG HIGH PRES.

CLDS WL BEGIN TO INCR AGAIN OVRNGT AHD OF THE NXT APCHG SHRTWV.
TEMPS SHOULD AVG A LTL BLO SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DEEPENING UPR TROF AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WL ADVN ACRS THE
GT LKS FRI WITH INCRG SHWR CHCS THRU THE DAY. THE DEEP UPR TROF WL
RMN ACRS THE ERN CONUS SAT WITH A MOISTURE SWATH AND OMEGA ACRS
MUCH OF THE RGN.

COLDER AIR IS EXPD TO BEGIN TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE INITIAL SFC LOW
AS N-NE FLOW DVLPS FRI NGT INTO SAT. CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND
SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SNW TO MIX IN
WITH RAIN SHWRS AT TIMES...BUT A WRM BNDRY LYR SHOULD LIMIT THE
SNW POTENTIAL AND PREVENT ANY ACCUMS OUTSIDE OF THE RIDGES SE OF
PIT. IN THE RIDGES...EXP A GRDL CHG OVR TO MAINLY SNW SAT IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. GENLY EXP A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNW IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN IN GRASSY AREAS BEFORE THE PCPN BEGINS TO DMNSH
SAT NGT. THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT IS LTD WITH N-NE FLOW...AND
MOISTURE BEGINS TO DMNSH BY THE TIME NW FLOW DVLPS.

BLO SEASONAL AVG TEMPS ARE EXPD INTO THE WKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD WHICH WAS BASED ON GEFS/ECENS MEANS.
A COLD SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES...WITH
READINGS CLOSE TO SEASONAL BY TUESDAY AS A FLAT UPPER RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH. ANOTHER...MUCH MORE SHALLOW TROUGH IS
PROJECTED FOR A MID WEEK...WITH PROMISE OF AN UNSETTLED END TO THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESIDUAL STRATOCU BLANKET WL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE MOST PORTS THIS
AFTN WITH MVFR TO LOW END VFR...BUT IMPROVEMENT IS ANTICIPATED
LT TDA AS COLD ADVCTN CEASES AND AS SBSDNC INCRS UNDR A SHRTWV
RIDGE.

LGT SFC WIND WL VEER TO THE SW AND S LATE TNGT AS UPSTREAM SHRTWV
ADVNS...BUT GENL CONDITION DETERIORATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH
THAT SYSTEM UNTIL AFTR DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS DEEPENING LOW
PRES SHUNTS A BROAD MSTR SWATH OVR THE UPR OH REGION. ENSUING
UPSLOPING COLD ADVCTN WL THEN MAINTAIN SHWR AND STRATOCU POTENTIAL
UNTIL SFC HIGH STRENGTHENS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/15






000
FXUS61 KPHI 301345
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
945 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION TODAY. BY TOMORROW, A LOW
WILL BEGIN TO DIG SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SAME
TIME, AN OFF SHORE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST. BY SATURDAY NIGHT, THE
TWO LOWS WILL MERGE OFF SHORE RESULTING IN COOL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR OUR REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG HAS BURNED OUT THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
FILTER ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH THE 9:30 AM
UPDATE WE SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED SOME OF THE TEMPERATURES DUE TO
MORNING FOR OR THE LACK THEREOF. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK. STILL THINK 60 IS A REASONABLE EXPECTATION AT PHL GIVEN
QUICK RESPONSE IN TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING.

TODAY SHOULD END UP BEING A PRETTY NICE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO OUR WEST AND TRIES TO PUSH INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS. A
SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING,
ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA AS ANY PRECIP TO
THE NORTHWEST SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE IT GETS HERE. BEHIND THIS,
THERE COULD BE SOME STRATOCU MOVE DOWN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS.

HIGHS TODAY WERE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND BLENDED ECMWF 925MB
TEMPS WHICH KEEPS EVERYONE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT,
ALTHOUGH WE ARE STILL EXPECTING A QUIET NIGHT. ANY CLOUDS FROM THE
DAY SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED EARLY IN THE NIGHT, BEFORE A RETURN OF SOME CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS WHICH KEEPS
EVERYONE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE BIGGEST STORY THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE LOW THAT DIGS
SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY, SLIDING OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST SATURDAY AND MERGING WITH AN OFF SHORE LOW.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH WE WILL TECHNICALLY STILL BE IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM, IT WON`T FEEL MUCH LIKE IT. THANKS
TO THE OFF SHORE SURFACE LOW, ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
RATHER EARLY IN THE DAY FRIDAY LEADING TO COOL AND CLOUDY WEATHER.
EXPECT MOST LOCATION TO SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS IT LIKELY WON`T GET OUT OF
THE 40S. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONTINENTAL LOW COULD BEGIN
TO MOVE INTO THE POCONOS FROM THE WEST AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, THE ONSHORE FLOW COULD RESULT IN LIGHT
PRECIP ALONG THE COAST. BY FRIDAY NIGHT, EXPECT THE ONSHORE, AND
UPSLOPE FLOW TO RESULT IN LIGHT PRECIP FURTHER INLAND.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE NOW OCCLUDED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY, BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS. ONE
INTERESTING THING TO WATCH WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE DRIER AIR MOVES
IN. IF THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS DRY OUT AS QUICKLY AS THE GFS IS
SUGGESTING, SNOW SEEMS VERY UNLIKELY AS BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING,
ONLY THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE NEARLY SATURATED. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST MORE OF A DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT. HOWEVER, THE
ECMWF AND NAM STILL SHOW SOME CHANCE OF SEEDER FEEDER CLOUDS
THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
FOR THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY. EVEN IF PRECIP DOES CHANGE
OVER, PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE, THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT MUCH OF THE REGION TO SEE LOWS NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING, INCLUDING THE 15 REMAINING COUNTIES (PRIMARILY IN
DELMARVA, THE URBAN CORRIDOR, AND FAR SOUTHERN NJ) THAT HAVE NOT
YET HAD A HARD FREEZE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A BROAD HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD EAST. EXPECT MODEST WARMING EACH DAY THANKS BOTH TO AIR MASS
MODIFICATION AD INCREASING 1000-500MB THICKNESSES.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...COULD SEE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF ARE DISAGREE ABOUT TIMING AND TRACK
OF THIS FEATURE. THUS, HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THERE SHOULD BE SOME CLOUD COVER MOVE IN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY WITH BASES AROUND 4,000-5,000 FEET, AND
SHOULD VARY FROM BROKEN TO SCATTERED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
ANOTHER AREA OF BROKEN VFR CEILINGS WILL IMPACT ACY AND MIV UNTIL
ABOUT NOON THIS MORNING. WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY FOG TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD BE DRY ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG
FORMATION.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY EARLY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST 5-10
KNOTS THROUGH THE MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS MAY
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT, WITH ANY DIRECTION
BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...EXPECT CEILING TO LOWER THROUGH THE DAY, BECOMING MVFR AT
LEAST BY FRIDAY EVENING. -SHRA COULD MOVE IN BY FRIDAY NIGHT
RESULTING IN OCCASIONAL MVFR VISIBILITIES AS WELL

SATURDAY...IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY MORNING. BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. BREEZY NW WINDS MAY CONTINUE ESPECIALLY AT ACY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IT`S WAY ACROSS THE AREA FROM
THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS WILL BUILD INTO SCA CRITERIA,
AND THEN GALES, WITH PEAK GUSTS NEAR 40KT POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY. GALE CONDITIONS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WINDS WILL STAY IN SCA CRITERIA THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN ONSHORE COMPONENT OF THE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY
WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WATER LEVELS THIS WEEKEND. MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING MAY OCCUR WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...GAINES/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JOHNSON







000
FXUS61 KLWX 301313
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
913 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DESCEND FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO COASTAL CAROLINA SATURDAY BEFORE TRACKING TO
THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN MONDAY FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
TONIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY SOME DIURNAL
CUMULUS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60F. FAIRLY LOW
SPREAD IN GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT... RANGING FROM
MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 40S IN THE METROS/BY THE BAY.

FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AMPLIFICATION WILL BE UNDERWAY AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS ALMOST DUE SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA FOR MOST
OF THE DAY THE ORIENTATION OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS DOES NOT
ALLOW RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP...SO EXPECT SIMILAR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM
THE WEST...WHICH MAY ALSO HINDER TEMPERATURES. AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM NEARS...SOME SHOWERS MAY SPREAD INTO THE WV/MD MOUNTAINS BY
LATE AFTERNOON. THIS APPEARS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECASTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

THE WKND FCST WL REVOLVE ARND S/WV ENERGY PLUNGING INTO THE SERN
CONUS FRI NGT-SAT MRNG...CARVING OUT A DEEP UPR TROF/CUTOFF LOW...
INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS LT SAT...WHICH WL HEAD OUT INTO THE ATLC SAT
NGT-SUN. WHILE MDL GDNC CONTS TO DIFFER ON SPECIFICS...THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PTTN DESCRIBED ABV SEEMS TO BE NARROWING IN ON A SOLN...
ALBEIT AN ANOMOLOUS ONE.

WL FOLLOW A SCENARIO WHERE MOST OF THE ENERGY WL BE DIPPING W OF THE
CWFA FRI NGT...WHICH WL KEEP POPS HIGH W OF THE BLURDG...BUT LOW IN
THE E. GFS QPF VERBATIM ACTUALLY PAINTS THE I-95 CRRDR DRY ATTM. AM
NOT FEELING THAT CONFIDENT IN ABSOLUTES...AND HV OPTED TO KEEP CHC
POPS IN THE E...BUT EMPHASIZED AFTR MIDNGT TIMING. THIS ENERGY WLL
SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SAT...TO THE S OF THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN...THIS WL
KEEP THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PCPN AWAY FM THE IMMEDIATE AREA...THIS
TIME TO THE SOUTH. HV LKLY POPS OKV-METRO DC-DMH SWD. THEN TAPER
POPS OFF AS LOW PULLS AWAY.

DUE TO THE DEPTH OF THE LOW/EXTENT OF HGT FALLS...PTYPE BECOMES AN
ISSUE. WL PRESERVE PRVS FCSTS...WHICH CONFINES ANY MIX/SNW TO THE
APLCNS...SPCLY THE WRN SLOPES. IT WUD TAKE AN EXTREME EVENT TO BRING
ANYTHING OTHER THAN RA E OF THE MTNS IN ERLY NOV.

"BLUSTERY" LOOKS TO BE A GOOD WX WORD SAT AFTN THRU SUN STILL
LOOKING AT WINDY CONDS SAT AFTN-NGT AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND PULLS
AWAY. GDNC SUGGESTING SUSTAINED WNDS ARND 20 MPH...AND GUSTS CUD
EASLIY REACH 30-35 MPH. OF COURSE...THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE
SYSTEM WL DETERMINE THOSE DETAILS.

TOOK MIN-T UP A CPL DEGF FRI NGT DUE TO POOR RADL COOLING CONDS. SAT
NGT WILL BE PRELY BASED ON CAA. CHGS MINIMAL. IT MAY SPELL THE END
OF THE GROWING SEASON FOR MANY AREAS W OF THE BLURDG. MAXT SAT WL BE
UNSEASONABLY CHILLY. MOS HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON IT...LWR 50S E OF
THE BLURDG AND MID-UPR 40S W.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION SO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT GIVE WAY TO WAA FROM SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WARMUP IN THIS PERIOD. A COLD
FRONT IS THEN LIKELY TO PUSH INTO THE REGION BY LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY HAVE INCLUDED A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT.
WENT WARMER ON TUESDAY GIVEN THE WAA AND 925 MB TEMPS APPROACHING
9C...GETTING THE REGION INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SCATTERED CUMULUS AROUND 4-5KFT WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. DAYTIME
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NW AT LESS THAN 10KT BEFORE DECOUPLING THIS
EVENING.

FLGT RESTRICTIONS XPCTD THIS WKND AS UPR LVL ENERGY PASSES S OF
THE AREA...INITIATING LOPRES WHICH PASSES NE. MVFR SHUD GNLY
PREVAIL... BUT WUDNT RULE OUT LCL IFR FRI NGT-SAT. IN ADDITION...
WL HV WINDY CONDS /NW 20-30 KT/ SAT AFTN INTO SUN WHICH CUD AFFECT
OPS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. N TO NW
WINDS WILL PEAK AT 10-15KT.

A STORM SYSTEM WL AFFECT THE MARINE AREA THIS WKND. SCA CONDS LKLY
BY SAT...AND GLW PROBABLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS BY SAT AFTN
INTO SUN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS AND THEN
TRACK NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF HIGHER THAN
NORMAL TIDES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...FOLLOWED BY BLOWOUT CONDITIONS
SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE..WOODY!
PRVS...HTS/ADS








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301210
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
810 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LINGERING STRATOCU BEHIND AN EXITING SHRTWV WL CONT ACRS THE AREA
THRU THIS MRNG. SOME DCR IN CLDS IS EXPD LTR THIS AFTN AS WK
SBSDNC INCRS UNDER BLDG HIGH PRES.

CLDS WL BEGIN TO INCR AGAIN OVRNGT AHD OF THE NXT APCHG SHRTWV.
TEMPS SHOULD AVG A LTL BLO SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE STILL FORECASTING A RATHER HISTORICALLY DEEP H500
TROUGH/UPPER LOW TO DEVELOP THROUGH SATURDAY.  12Z GEFS/NAEFS
ENSEMBLES SHOW STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF 4 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL IN THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY.  INTERESTINGLY...THE
STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM WILL PLAY A ROLE IN PREVENTING MUCH OF A SNOW
IMPACT FOR THE CWA.

H500 UPPER LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO DIP FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
AT 12Z FRIDAY TO THE CAROLINAS BY 12Z SATURDAY.  CERTAINLY ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND LIFT PROVIDED BY THE LOW FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  WHAT IS INTERESTING IS THAT IT STILL APPEARS
THAT THE SYSTEM BECOMES SO WRAPPED UP THAT THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR
WILL DIP SOUTH OF THE CWA...WHILE RELATIVELY WARMER AIR WRAPS AROUND
AND SPILLS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
SURFACE.  STILL FORESEE SOME SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN FOR MOST AREAS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.  THE RIDGES IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA
CORNER HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF GOING TO ALL SNOW AND PERHAPS PICKING
UP A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH OR TWO.  ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES
FROM H925 ON DOWN LOOK TOO WARM FOR ACCUMULATION.

ON SATURDAY THE UPPER LOW SWINGS AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND
MOVES OFFSHORE...FEEDING A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER WELL OFF TO OUR
EAST.  MOST LOCATIONS WILL TURN BACK TO ALL RAIN BY LATE MORNING.
COLDER AIR WILL FINALLY START TO COLLAPSE IN FROM THE NORTH AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW TURNS NORTHERLY...BUT BY THEN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
BECOMES MORE QUESTIONABLE.  POPS DROP OFF TO CHANCE BY AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT...ENDING BEFORE
12Z SUNDAY.  BACKSIDE UPSLOPE FLOW DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A SIGNIFICANT
CONCERN.  DRY WEATHER AND SOME SUNSHINE RETURN FOR SUNDAY.

DID NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES...BLENDING IN THE MOST
RECENT MOS GUIDANCE.  VALUES WILL RUN SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND.  CL

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD WHICH WAS BASED ON GEFS/ECENS MEANS.
A COLD SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES...WITH
READINGS CLOSE TO SEASONAL BY TUESDAY AS A FLAT UPPER RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH. ANOTHER...MUCH MORE SHALLOW TROUGH IS
PROJECTED FOR A MID WEEK...WITH PROMISE OF AN UNSETTLED END TO THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESIDUAL STRATOCU BLANKET WL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE MOST PORTS THIS
MRNG WITH MVFR TO LOW END VFR...BUT IMPROVEMENT IS ANTICIPATED
THIS AFTN AS COLD ADVCTN CEASES AND AS SBSDNC INCRS UNDR A SHRTWV RIDGE.

LGT SFC WIND WL VEER TO THE SW AND S LATE TNGT AS UPSTREAM SHRTWV
ADVNS...BUT GENL CONDITION DETERIORATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH
THAT SYSTEM UNTIL AFTR DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS DEEPENING LOW
PRES SHUNTS A BROAD MSTR SWATH OVR THE UPR OH REGION. ENSUING
UPSLOPING COLD ADVCTN WL THEN MAINTAIN SHWR AND STRATOCU POTENTIAL
UNTIL SFC HIGH STRENGTHENS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/15






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 301057
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
657 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY. MEANWHILE...WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
SATURDAY BEFORE EXITING THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MRNG SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A SFC CDFNT HAVING PUSHED S AND E
OF THE FA. THAT FNT WILL CONT TO MOVE E AND S THROUGH TDA WHILE WK
SFC HI PRES BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE RGN FM THE WNW. REGIONAL
RADAR SHOWING LAST VESTIGES OF RA INVOF EXTREME ESE VA AND CSTL NE
NC. XPCG THE RA TO TO BE OUT OF THE FA BY 12Z/30. CLRG RMNS SLO FM
THE WNW AND W/ LGT/CALM WNDS AND RA...PATCHY/AREAS OF FG HAVE
DEVELOPED OVR PORTIONS OF THE PDMNT W OF RIC.

WILL INCLUDE FG FOR MNLY AREAS W OF I95 THROUGH ABT 13Z/30...OTRW
XPCG CLRG TO CONT FM THE WNW THROUGH THE MRNG HRS (LASTLY INVOF
IMMEDIATE CST IN SE VA/NE NC). AVGG OUT P/MSNY OVR THE FA TDA...W/
HI TEMPS RANGING FM THE L/M60S NNW TO M/U60S SSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FA TO BE INBETWEEN FNTL BNDRY (WELL) OFF THE CST AND STRONG UPR
LVL SYS DIVING SE FM THE LAKES/OH VLY ON TNGT INTO FRI NGT. CLR-
PCLDY AND COOLER TNGT W/ LO TEMPS M/U30S INLAND TO ARND 50F ALG SE
CSTL AREAS. STARTING OUT MNLY SKC FRI MRNG...THEN VRB/INCRSG CLDS
BY THE AFTN. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S FAR NW TO L/M60S ELSW.

ALL MDLS CONT TO SHOW DYNAMIC WX SYS DEVELOP INVOF MDATLC CST FM
LT FRI THROUGH SAT. STRONG UPR LVL LO PRES CONTS TO DIVE ESE
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS...WHILE AT SAME TIME...SFC LO PRES SLOWLY
DEVELOPS OFF THE CST (INVOF LINGERING FNTL BNDRY). GIVEN FCST OF
HOW FAR S UPR LVL SYS TRACKS...MOST SGFNT IMPACTS FM THIS STORM
SITUATION APR TO BE FOR ERN/CSTL LOCATIONS (PRIMARILY) FM SAT AFTN
INTO 1ST PART OF SAT NGT. POPS TO INCRS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
SAT...W/ HIGHEST POPS (60-80%) NR THE CST...TO MNLY 30-50% POPS
ELSW. ADDITIONALLY...INCRSG CONCERN TO STRONG NNE WNDS (TO 35-45
MPH) NR THE CST ALONG W/ MINOR TO PTNTLLY MODERATE CSTL FLOODING
(INVOF SRN BAY...ALG THE ATLC BEACHES). WILL HIGHLIGHT PTNTL
IMPACTS IN HWO.

LO TEMPS FRI NGT MNLY IN THE L/M40S INLAND TO ARND 50F AT THE
IMMEDIATE CST. HI TEMPS SAT IN THE L/M50S INLAND TO ARND 60F NR
THE CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WINDY/RAINY SAT EVE (CLOSE TO THE CST) AS STM STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE.
THE SFC LO BEGINS TO EXIT THE MDATLC CSTL WTRS AFT MDNGT SAT NGT.
CLRG FM THE W WILL BEGIN AFT 03-06Z/02.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY...BEFORE
SETTLING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HIGHS SUNDAY
SHOULD ONLY RISE TO 50-55 UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AS CAA
CONTINUES. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS FALLING TO AROUND 30-32 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
(UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN FAVORED COLD SPOTS)...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
VALUES (35-40) FOR FAR SE PORTIONS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS FALL
(INLAND) ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A SLOW MODERATING TREND IS
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES
OFFSHORE. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 55-60...WITH LOW/MID 60S
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER COOL
TUESDAY MORNING RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 30S INTERIOR TO LOW 40S
FOR SE COASTAL LOCATIONS. LOWS SHOULD MODERATE INTO THE LOW/MID
40S WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW WITH
RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH OF THE REGION AS OF 12Z...WITH WINDS NOW
AVGG OUT OF THE N AOB 10 KT. CHANCES OF RAIN HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH JUST THE OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME IFR/MVFR FOG FOR
ANOTHER HR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. HI PRES
BLDS IN FM THE W THIS AFTN...REMAINING OVR THE AREA AND
DISSIPATING THRU FRI AFTN. UA/SFC LO PRES WILL THEN AFFECT THE
REGION LATE FRI NGT INTO SAT NGT WITH PCPN AND LWR CIGS/VSBYS PSBL.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA`S HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THRU 10AM FOR CSTL WTRS S OF THE VA/NC
BORDER WHERE 5 FT SEAS PERSIST...AND CURRITUCK SOUND DUE TO 15-20
KT WINDS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS HAVE COMMENCED OVR THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY SO HEADLINES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED THERE. FOR TDA...EXPECT N
WINDS AVGG 10-15 KT AS A COLD FRNT PUSHES S OF THE AREA AND BROAD
SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. SIMILAR WINDS INTO TNGT WITH WEAK HI
PRES OVR THE MID ATLANTIC. THE HI DISSIPATES BY FRI...WITH
CONDITIONS REMAINING SUB-SCA (10-15 KT N WINDS AND 2-3 FT SEAS).

A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY STRONG CAA LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. A NNW
WIND IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND A PERIOD
OF GALE CONDITIONS IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SCA CONDITIONS LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. IF RAPID CYCLOGENESIS EVENTUALLY OCCURS OFF THE VA COAST A
BRIEF PERIOD OF STORM FORCE GUSTS IS POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER BAY AND
OCEAN DURING THE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/SATURDAY EVENING TIMEFRAME.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THEN
SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ633-
     658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/ESS
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/ESS
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 301057
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
657 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY. MEANWHILE...WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
SATURDAY BEFORE EXITING THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MRNG SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A SFC CDFNT HAVING PUSHED S AND E
OF THE FA. THAT FNT WILL CONT TO MOVE E AND S THROUGH TDA WHILE WK
SFC HI PRES BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE RGN FM THE WNW. REGIONAL
RADAR SHOWING LAST VESTIGES OF RA INVOF EXTREME ESE VA AND CSTL NE
NC. XPCG THE RA TO TO BE OUT OF THE FA BY 12Z/30. CLRG RMNS SLO FM
THE WNW AND W/ LGT/CALM WNDS AND RA...PATCHY/AREAS OF FG HAVE
DEVELOPED OVR PORTIONS OF THE PDMNT W OF RIC.

WILL INCLUDE FG FOR MNLY AREAS W OF I95 THROUGH ABT 13Z/30...OTRW
XPCG CLRG TO CONT FM THE WNW THROUGH THE MRNG HRS (LASTLY INVOF
IMMEDIATE CST IN SE VA/NE NC). AVGG OUT P/MSNY OVR THE FA TDA...W/
HI TEMPS RANGING FM THE L/M60S NNW TO M/U60S SSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FA TO BE INBETWEEN FNTL BNDRY (WELL) OFF THE CST AND STRONG UPR
LVL SYS DIVING SE FM THE LAKES/OH VLY ON TNGT INTO FRI NGT. CLR-
PCLDY AND COOLER TNGT W/ LO TEMPS M/U30S INLAND TO ARND 50F ALG SE
CSTL AREAS. STARTING OUT MNLY SKC FRI MRNG...THEN VRB/INCRSG CLDS
BY THE AFTN. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S FAR NW TO L/M60S ELSW.

ALL MDLS CONT TO SHOW DYNAMIC WX SYS DEVELOP INVOF MDATLC CST FM
LT FRI THROUGH SAT. STRONG UPR LVL LO PRES CONTS TO DIVE ESE
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS...WHILE AT SAME TIME...SFC LO PRES SLOWLY
DEVELOPS OFF THE CST (INVOF LINGERING FNTL BNDRY). GIVEN FCST OF
HOW FAR S UPR LVL SYS TRACKS...MOST SGFNT IMPACTS FM THIS STORM
SITUATION APR TO BE FOR ERN/CSTL LOCATIONS (PRIMARILY) FM SAT AFTN
INTO 1ST PART OF SAT NGT. POPS TO INCRS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
SAT...W/ HIGHEST POPS (60-80%) NR THE CST...TO MNLY 30-50% POPS
ELSW. ADDITIONALLY...INCRSG CONCERN TO STRONG NNE WNDS (TO 35-45
MPH) NR THE CST ALONG W/ MINOR TO PTNTLLY MODERATE CSTL FLOODING
(INVOF SRN BAY...ALG THE ATLC BEACHES). WILL HIGHLIGHT PTNTL
IMPACTS IN HWO.

LO TEMPS FRI NGT MNLY IN THE L/M40S INLAND TO ARND 50F AT THE
IMMEDIATE CST. HI TEMPS SAT IN THE L/M50S INLAND TO ARND 60F NR
THE CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WINDY/RAINY SAT EVE (CLOSE TO THE CST) AS STM STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE.
THE SFC LO BEGINS TO EXIT THE MDATLC CSTL WTRS AFT MDNGT SAT NGT.
CLRG FM THE W WILL BEGIN AFT 03-06Z/02.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY...BEFORE
SETTLING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HIGHS SUNDAY
SHOULD ONLY RISE TO 50-55 UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AS CAA
CONTINUES. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS FALLING TO AROUND 30-32 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
(UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN FAVORED COLD SPOTS)...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
VALUES (35-40) FOR FAR SE PORTIONS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS FALL
(INLAND) ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A SLOW MODERATING TREND IS
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES
OFFSHORE. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 55-60...WITH LOW/MID 60S
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER COOL
TUESDAY MORNING RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 30S INTERIOR TO LOW 40S
FOR SE COASTAL LOCATIONS. LOWS SHOULD MODERATE INTO THE LOW/MID
40S WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW WITH
RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH OF THE REGION AS OF 12Z...WITH WINDS NOW
AVGG OUT OF THE N AOB 10 KT. CHANCES OF RAIN HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH JUST THE OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME IFR/MVFR FOG FOR
ANOTHER HR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. HI PRES
BLDS IN FM THE W THIS AFTN...REMAINING OVR THE AREA AND
DISSIPATING THRU FRI AFTN. UA/SFC LO PRES WILL THEN AFFECT THE
REGION LATE FRI NGT INTO SAT NGT WITH PCPN AND LWR CIGS/VSBYS PSBL.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA`S HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THRU 10AM FOR CSTL WTRS S OF THE VA/NC
BORDER WHERE 5 FT SEAS PERSIST...AND CURRITUCK SOUND DUE TO 15-20
KT WINDS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS HAVE COMMENCED OVR THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY SO HEADLINES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED THERE. FOR TDA...EXPECT N
WINDS AVGG 10-15 KT AS A COLD FRNT PUSHES S OF THE AREA AND BROAD
SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. SIMILAR WINDS INTO TNGT WITH WEAK HI
PRES OVR THE MID ATLANTIC. THE HI DISSIPATES BY FRI...WITH
CONDITIONS REMAINING SUB-SCA (10-15 KT N WINDS AND 2-3 FT SEAS).

A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY STRONG CAA LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. A NNW
WIND IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND A PERIOD
OF GALE CONDITIONS IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SCA CONDITIONS LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. IF RAPID CYCLOGENESIS EVENTUALLY OCCURS OFF THE VA COAST A
BRIEF PERIOD OF STORM FORCE GUSTS IS POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER BAY AND
OCEAN DURING THE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/SATURDAY EVENING TIMEFRAME.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THEN
SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ633-
     658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/ESS
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/ESS
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300814
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
415 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WITH DRIER WEATHER. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NEAR SFC FLOW VEERED NWRLY OVERNIGHT AND A PLUME OF LAKE MOISTURE
DEVELOPED LOW STRATOCU OVER THE SRN SHORES OF LAKE ERIE AND AREAS
ADJACENT. SRN EXPANSION OF THIS CLOUD COVER HAS NOT BEEN NEARLY AS
AGGRESSIVE AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...HOWEVER...AS DRY AIR ALOFT HAS
BEEN ABLE TO ERODE THE MOISTURE UNDER THE UPPER TROF AXIS. THIS
HAS SQUASHED WIDESPREAD LAKE-INDUCED SHOWERS AND HAS LED TO
ALMOST THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA REMAINING CLEAR THROUGH THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS. WINDS HAVE GENERALLY STAYED UP OVERNIGHT ALLOWING SOME
MIXING OF THE LOW LEVELS...BUT SHELTERED LOCATIONS UNDER CLEAR
SKIES HAVE RADIATED DOWN INTO THE MID 30S.

LOOKING FORWARD...CLOUD FORECAST DIFFICULT THROUGH TODAY AS MOST
HI-RES MODELS HAVE NOT FULLY RESOLVED THE EXTENT OF THE DRY AIR
INHIBITING CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN THE LOW LEVELS. MODIFIED THE
INITIAL SKY FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND HAVE
GRADUALLY BLENDED INTO TONED DOWN VERSION OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. EXPECTING TO SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSIST ALONG
THE NORTH UNDER THE LAKE ENHANCED REGION WHILE GETTING AT LEAST
SOME PATCHES OF SUN FURTHER SOUTH IN THE CWA.

FORECAST AREA REMAINS COOL TODAY UNDER NW FLOW REGIME. WITH VERY
LOW SPREAD ACROSS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...HAVE MAINTAIN CURRENT
FORECAST WITH MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON BIAS CORRECTED MET.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS ARE STILL FORECASTING A RATHER HISTORICALLY DEEP H500
TROUGH/UPPER LOW TO DEVELOP THROUGH SATURDAY.  12Z GEFS/NAEFS
ENSEMBLES SHOW STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF 4 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL IN THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY.  INTERESTINGLY...THE
STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM WILL PLAY A ROLE IN PREVENTING MUCH OF A SNOW
IMPACT FOR THE CWA.

H500 UPPER LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO DIP FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
AT 12Z FRIDAY TO THE CAROLINAS BY 12Z SATURDAY.  CERTAINLY ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND LIFT PROVIDED BY THE LOW FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  WHAT IS INTERESTING IS THAT IT STILL APPEARS
THAT THE SYSTEM BECOMES SO WRAPPED UP THAT THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR
WILL DIP SOUTH OF THE CWA...WHILE RELATIVELY WARMER AIR WRAPS AROUND
AND SPILLS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
SURFACE.  STILL FORESEE SOME SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN FOR MOST AREAS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.  THE RIDGES IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA
CORNER HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF GOING TO ALL SNOW AND PERHAPS PICKING
UP A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH OR TWO.  ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES
FROM H925 ON DOWN LOOK TOO WARM FOR ACCUMULATION.

ON SATURDAY THE UPPER LOW SWINGS AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND
MOVES OFFSHORE...FEEDING A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER WELL OFF TO OUR
EAST.  MOST LOCATIONS WILL TURN BACK TO ALL RAIN BY LATE MORNING.
COLDER AIR WILL FINALLY START TO COLLAPSE IN FROM THE NORTH AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW TURNS NORTHERLY...BUT BY THEN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
BECOMES MORE QUESTIONABLE.  POPS DROP OFF TO CHANCE BY AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT...ENDING BEFORE
12Z SUNDAY.  BACKSIDE UPSLOPE FLOW DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A SIGNIFICANT
CONCERN.  DRY WEATHER AND SOME SUNSHINE RETURN FOR SUNDAY.

DID NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES...BLENDING IN THE MOST
RECENT MOS GUIDANCE.  VALUES WILL RUN SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND.  CL

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD WHICH WAS BASED ON GEFS/ECENS
MEANS.  A COLD SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS CLOSE TO SEASONAL BY TUESDAY AS A FLAT
UPPER RIDGE MOVES THROUGH.  ANOTHER...MUCH MORE SHALLOW TROUGH
ARRIVES DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE
SYSTEMS...PROMISING AN UNSETTLED END TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  CL

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERAL VFR FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH
MVFR CIGS COULD BE OBSERVED TEMPORARILY THIS MORNING AS LARGE
STRATO CU FIELD DESCENDS FOLLOWING A PLUME OF LLVL MOISTURE FROM
LAKE ERIE. FKL AND DUJ WILL STAY MVFR THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE
IMPROVING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON

COLDER AIR WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR
STRATOCU DECK TO EVENTUALLY THIN OUT.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS DEEPENING LOW
PRES IS PROJECTED TO SHUNT A BROAD MSTR SWATH OVR THE UPR OH
REGION. ENSUING COLD ADVCTN WL THEN MAINTAIN STRATOCU POTENTIAL
UNTIL SFC HIGH STRENGTHENS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPHI 300809
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
409 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION TODAY. BY TOMORROW, A LOW
WILL BEGIN TO DIG SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SAME
TIME, AN OFF SHORE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST. BY SATURDAY NIGHT, THE
TWO LOWS WILL MERGE OFF SHORE RESULTING IN COOL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR OUR REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE MOIST LOW LEVELS LEFT OVER
FROM THE LIGHT RAIN YESTERDAY, AND THERE IS SOME DENSE FOG WITH
VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE. HOWEVER, LOOKING AT TRAFFIC
CAMERAS AND THE SATELLITE FOG TOOL, IT LOOKS LIKE THE DENSE FOG IS
PATCHY ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NOW.
ALSO, DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS, WHICH SHOULD HELP DISSIPATE THE FOG SOME. SO WE`LL KEEP
WITH THE SPS.

ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF AFTER SUNRISE, TODAY SHOULD END UP BEING A
PRETTY NICE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR WEST AND TRIES TO
PUSH INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS. A SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING, ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS
OUR AREA AS ANY PRECIP TO THE NORTHWEST SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE IT
GETS HERE. BEHIND THIS, THERE COULD BE SOME STRATOCU MOVE DOWN
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN AREAS.

HIGHS TODAY WERE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND BLENDED ECMWF 925MB
TEMPS WHICH KEEPS EVERYONE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT,
ALTHOUGH WE ARE STILL EXPECTING A QUIET NIGHT. ANY CLOUDS FROM THE
DAY SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED EARLY IN THE NIGHT, BEFORE A RETURN OF SOME CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS WHICH KEEPS
EVERYONE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE BIGGEST STORY THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE LOW THAT DIGS
SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY, SLIDING OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST SATURDAY AND MERGING WITH AN OFF SHORE LOW.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH WE WILL TECHNICALLY STILL BE IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM, IT WON`T FEEL MUCH LIKE IT. THANKS
TO THE OFF SHORE SURFACE LOW, ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
RATHER EARLY IN THE DAY FRIDAY LEADING TO COOL AND CLOUDY WEATHER.
EXPECT MOST LOCATION TO SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS IT LIKELY WON`T GET OUT OF
THE 40S. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONTINENTAL LOW COULD BEGIN
TO MOVE INTO THE POCONOS FROM THE WEST AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, THE ONSHORE FLOW COULD RESULT IN LIGHT
PRECIP ALONG THE COAST. BY FRIDAY NIGHT, EXPECT THE ONSHORE, AND
UPSLOPE FLOW TO RESULT IN LIGHT PRECIP FURTHER INLAND.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE NOW OCCLUDED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY, BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS. ONE
INTERESTING THING TO WATCH WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE DRIER AIR MOVES
IN. IF THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS DRY OUT AS QUICKLY AS THE GFS IS
SUGGESTING, SNOW SEEMS VERY UNLIKELY AS BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING,
ONLY THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE NEARLY SATURATED. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST MORE OF A DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT. HOWEVER, THE
ECMWF AND NAM STILL SHOW SOME CHANCE OF SEEDER FEEDER CLOUDS
THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
FOR THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY. EVEN IF PRECIP DOES CHANGE
OVER, PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE, THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT MUCH OF THE REGION TO SEE LOWS NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING, INCLUDING THE 15 REMAINING COUNTIES (PRIMARILY IN
DELMARVA, THE URBAN CORRIDOR, AND FAR SOUTHERN NJ) THAT HAVE NOT
YET HAD A HARD FREEZE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A BROAD HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD EAST. EXPECT MODEST WARMING EACH DAY THANKS BOTH TO AIR MASS
MODIFICATION AD INCREASING 1000-500MB THICKNESSES.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...COULD SEE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF ARE DISAGREE ABOUT TIMING AND TRACK
OF THIS FEATURE. THUS, HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT ALL AIRPORTS THIS MORNING DUE TO THE MOIST LOW
LEVELS LEFT OVER FROM THE LIGHT RAIN FROM YESTERDAY. LIFR VSBYS ARE
OCCURRING AT MOST OF THE SITES AS WELL. DRIER AIR IS STILL EXPECTED
TO FILTER ACROSS THE AREA WHICH SHOULD HELP DISSIPATE THE FOG SOME,
ALTHOUGH WE STILL EXPECT IFR VSBYS THROUGH SUNRISE. THE FOG SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE AND LIFT/DISSIPATE COMPLETELY
THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS. THEN A VFR FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THERE SHOULD BE SOME CLOUD COVER MOVE
IN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY WITH BASES
AROUND 4,000-5,000 FEET, AND SHOULD VARY FROM BROKEN TO SCATTERED
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY FOG TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD BE DRY ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG
FORMATION.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY EARLY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST 5-10
KNOTS THROUGH THE MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS MAY
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT, WITH ANY DIRECTION
BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...EXPECT CEILING TO LOWER THROUGH THE DAY, BECOMING MVFR AT
LEAST BY FRIDAY EVENING. -SHRA COULD MOVE IN BY FRIDAY NIGHT
RESULTING IN OCCASIONAL MVFR VISIBILITIES AS WELL

SATURDAY...IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY MORNING. BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. BREEZY NW WINDS MAY CONTINUE ESPECIALLY AT ACY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IT`S WAY ACROSS THE AREA FROM
THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS WILL BUILD INTO SCA CRITERIA,
AND THEN GALES, WITH PEAK GUSTS NEAR 40KT POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY. GALE CONDITIONS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WINDS WILL STAY IN SCA CRITERIA THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN ONSHORE COMPONENT OF THE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY
WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WATER LEVELS THIS WEEKEND. MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING MAY OCCUR WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KLWX 300754
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
354 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DESCEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THE BUILD INTO
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF THE VA PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN MD OVERNIGHT IN LOCATIONS WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLEARING SKIES INTERSECTED AFTER SUNSET. WINDS WERE ABLE TO GO CALM
AND WITHOUT STRONG ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR...THIS FOG IS EXPECTED TO
LAST A LITTLE PAST SUNRISE. THE DENSE FOG SEEMS TO BE LOCALIZED AND
SHALLOW IN NATURE SO HAVE BEEN COVERING WITH NOWCASTS...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY
SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS. IN THE MUCH CHILLIER AIRMASS BEHIND THE
DEPARTED FRONT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60F.
FAIRLY LOW SPREAD IN GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...RANGING
FROM MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 40S IN THE METROS/BY THE BAY.

FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AMPLIFICATION WILL BE UNDERWAY AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS ALMOST DUE SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA FOR MOST
OF THE DAY THE ORIENTATION OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS DOES NOT
ALLOW RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP...SO EXPECT SIMILAR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM
THE WEST...WHICH MAY ALSO HINDER TEMPERATURES. AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM NEARS...SOME SHOWERS MAY SPREAD INTO THE WV/MD MOUNTAINS BY
LATE AFTERNOON. THIS APPEARS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECASTS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE WKND FCST WL REVOLVE ARND S/WV ENERGY PLUNGING INTO THE SERN
CONUS FRI NGT-SAT MRNG...CARVING OUT A DP UPR TROF/CUTOFF LOW...
INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS LT SAT...WHICH WL HEAD OUT INTO THE ATLC SAT
NGT-SUN. WHILE MDL GDNC CONTS TO DIFFER ON SPECIFICS...THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PTTN DESCRIBED ABV SEEMS TO BE NARROWING IN ON A SOLN...
ALBEIT AN ANOMOLOUS ONE.

WL FLLW A SCENARIO WHERE MOST OF THE ENERGY WL BE DIPPING W OF THE
CWFA FRI NGT...WHICH WL KEEP POPS HIGH W OF THE BLURDG...BUT LOW IN
THE E. GFS QPF VERBATIM ACTUALLY PAINTS THE I-95 CRRDR DRY ATTM. AM
NOT FEELING THAT CONFIDENT IN ABSOLUTES...AND HV OPTED TO KEEP CHC
POPS IN THE E...BUT EMPHASIZED AFTR MIDNGT TIMING. THIS ENERGY WLL
SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SAT...TO THE S OF THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN...THIS WL
KEEP THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PCPN AWAY FM THE IMMEDIATE AREA...THIS
TIME TO THE SOUTH. HV LKLY POPS OKV-METRO DC-DMH SWD. THEN TAPER
POPS OFF AS LOW PULLS AWAY.

DUE TO THE DEPTH OF THE LOW/EXTENT OF HGT FALLS...PTYPE BECOMES AN
ISSUE. WL PRESERVE PRVS FCSTS...WHICH CONFINES ANY MIX/SNW TO THE
APLCNS...SPCLY THE WRN SLOPES. IT WUD TAKE AN EXTREME EVENT TO BRING
ANYTHING OTHER THAN RA E OF THERE IN ELY NOV.

STILL LOOKING AT WINDY CONDS SAT AFTN-NGT AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND
PULLS AWAY. GDNC SUGGESTING SUSTAINED WNDS ARND 20 MPH...AND GUSTS
CUD EASLIY REACH 30-35 MPH. OF COURSE...THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE
SYSTEM WL DETERMINE THOSE DETAILS.

TOOK MIN-T UP A CPL DEGF FRI NGT DUE TO POOR RADL COOLING CONDS. SAT
NGT WILL BE PRELY BASED ON CAA. CHGS MINIMAL. IT MAY SPELL THE END
OF THE GROWING SEASON FOR MANY AREAS W OF THE BLURDG. MAXT SAT WL BE
UNSEASONABLY CHILLY. MOS HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON IT...LWR 50S E OF
THE BLURDG AND MID-UPR 40S W.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION SO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT GIVE WAY TO WAA FROM SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WARMUP IN THIS PERIOD. A COLD
FRONT IS THEN LIKELY TO PUSH INTO THE REGION BY LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY HAVE INCLUDED A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT.
WENT WARMER ON TUESDAY GIVEN THE WAA AND 925 MB TEMPS APPROACHING
9C...GETTING THE REGION INTO THE 60S.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AREAS OF SHALLOW FOG HAVE PERSISTED OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERS WITH CALM WINDS. KCHO HAS REMAINED IFR OR LOWER MOST OF THE
NIGHT...WHILE KBWI/KIAD HAVE REPORTED PATCHES OF FOG AT TIMES. THIS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE THEN GRADUALLY BURN OFF. OTHERWISE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SCATTERED CUMULUS AROUND 4-5KFT WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
STRATOCUMULUS AROUND THE SAME LEVEL COULD LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NW AT LESS THAN 10KT BEFORE
DECOUPLING THIS EVENING.

FLGT RESTRICTIONS XPCTD THIS WKND AS UPR LVL ENERGY PASSES S OF
THE AREA...INITIATING LOPRES WHICH PASSES NE. MVFR SHUD GNLY
PREVAIL... BUT WUDNT RULE OUT LCL IFR FRI NGT-SAT. IN ADDITION...
WL HV WINDY CONDS /NW 20-30 KT/ SAT AFTN INTO SUN WHICH CUD AFFECT
OPS.
&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. N TO NW
WINDS WILL PEAK AT 10-15KT.

A STORM SYSTEM WL AFFECT THE MARINE AREA THIS WKND. SCA CONDS LKLY
BY SAT...AND GLW PROBABLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS BY SAT AFTN
INTO SUN.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS AND THEN
TRACK NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF HIGHER THAN
NORMAL TIDES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...FOLLOWED BY BLOWOUT CONDITIONS
SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...HTS/GAINES
AVIATION...ADS/HTS
MARINE...ADS/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300751
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
351 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY. MEANWHILE...WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
SATURDAY BEFORE EXITING THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MRNG SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A SFC CDFNT HAVING PUSHED S AND E
OF THE FA. THAT FNT WILL CONT TO MOVE E AND S THROUGH TDA WHILE WK
SFC HI PRES BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE RGN FM THE WNW. REGIONAL
RADAR SHOWING LAST VESTIGES OF RA INVOF EXTREME ESE VA AND CSTL NE
NC. XPCG THE RA TO TO BE OUT OF THE FA BY 12Z/30. CLRG RMNS SLO FM
THE WNW AND W/ LGT/CALM WNDS AND RA...PATCHY/AREAS OF FG HAVE
DEVELOPED OVR PORTIONS OF THE PDMNT W OF RIC.

WILL INCLUDE FG FOR MNLY AREAS W OF I95 THROUGH ABT 13Z/30...OTRW
XPCG CLRG TO CONT FM THE WNW THROUGH THE MRNG HRS (LASTLY INVOF
IMMEDIATE CST IN SE VA/NE NC). AVGG OUT P/MSNY OVR THE FA TDA...W/
HI TEMPS RANGING FM THE L/M60S NNW TO M/U60S SSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FA TO BE INBETWEEN FNTL BNDRY (WELL) OFF THE CST AND STRONG UPR
LVL SYS DIVING SE FM THE LAKES/OH VLY ON TNGT INTO FRI NGT. CLR-
PCLDY AND COOLER TNGT W/ LO TEMPS M/U30S INLAND TO ARND 50F ALG SE
CSTL AREAS. STARTING OUT MNLY SKC FRI MRNG...THEN VRB/INCRSG CLDS
BY THE AFTN. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S FAR NW TO L/M60S ELSW.

ALL MDLS CONT TO SHOW DYNAMIC WX SYS DEVELOP INVOF MDATLC CST FM
LT FRI THROUGH SAT. STRONG UPR LVL LO PRES CONTS TO DIVE ESE
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS...WHILE AT SAME TIME...SFC LO PRES SLOWLY
DEVELOPS OFF THE CST (INVOF LINGERING FNTL BNDRY). GIVEN FCST OF
HOW FAR S UPR LVL SYS TRACKS...MOST SGFNT IMPACTS FM THIS STORM
SITUATION APR TO BE FOR ERN/CSTL LOCATIONS (PRIMARILY) FM SAT AFTN
INTO 1ST PART OF SAT NGT. POPS TO INCRS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
SAT...W/ HIGHEST POPS (60-80%) NR THE CST...TO MNLY 30-50% POPS
ELSW. ADDITIONALLY...INCRSG CONCERN TO STRONG NNE WNDS (TO 35-45
MPH) NR THE CST ALONG W/ MINOR TO PTNTLLY MODERATE CSTL FLOODING
(INVOF SRN BAY...ALG THE ATLC BEACHES). WILL HIGHLIGHT PTNTL
IMPACTS IN HWO.

LO TEMPS FRI NGT MNLY IN THE L/M40S INLAND TO ARND 50F AT THE
IMMEDIATE CST. HI TEMPS SAT IN THE L/M50S INLAND TO ARND 60F NR
THE CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WINDY/RAINY SAT EVE (CLOSE TO THE CST) AS STM STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE.
THE SFC LO BEGINS TO EXIT THE MDATLC CSTL WTRS AFT MDNGT SAT NGT.
CLRG FM THE W WILL BEGIN AFT 03-06Z/02.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY...BEFORE
SETTLING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HIGHS SUNDAY
SHOULD ONLY RISE TO 50-55 UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AS CAA
CONTINUES. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS FALLING TO AROUND 30-32 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
(UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN FAVORED COLD SPOTS)...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
VALUES (35-40) FOR FAR SE PORTIONS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS FALL
(INLAND) ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A SLOW MODERATING TREND IS
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES
OFFSHORE. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 55-60...WITH LOW/MID 60S
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER COOL
TUESDAY MORNING RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 30S INTERIOR TO LOW 40S
FOR SE COASTAL LOCATIONS. LOWS SHOULD MODERATE INTO THE LOW/MID
40S WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW WITH
RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA CURRENTLY...WITH WINDS NOW
OUT OF THE N/NE AT ALL SITES. SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL AFFECTING
TAF SITES OVR HAMPTON ROADS/NE NC...STILL MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
BUT SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. HI PRES BLDS
IN FM THE W THIS AFTN LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS THRU FRI AFTN.
UA/SFC LO PRES WILL THEN AFFECT THE REGION LATE FRI NGT INTO SAT
NGT WITH PCPN AND LWR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA`S HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THRU 7AM FOR CSTL WTRS S OF CAPE CHARLES
LIGHT WHERE 5 FT SEAS PERSIST...AND CURRITUCK SOUND DUE TO 15-20 KT
WINDS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS HAVE COMMENCED OVR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY SO
HEADLINES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED THERE. FOR TDA...EXPECT N WINDS AVGG
10-15 KT AS A COLD FRNT PUSHES S OF THE AREA AND BROAD SFC HI PRES
BLDS IN FM THE W. SIMILAR WINDS INTO TNGT WITH WEAK HI PRES OVR THE
MID ATLANTIC. THE HI DISSIPATES BY FRI...WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING
SUB-SCA (10-15 KT N WINDS AND 2-3 FT SEAS).

A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY STRONG CAA LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. A NNW
WIND IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND A PERIOD
OF GALE CONDITIONS IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SCA CONDITIONS LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. IF RAPID CYCLOGENESIS EVENTUALLY OCCURS OFF THE VA COAST A
BRIEF PERIOD OF STORM FORCE GUSTS IS POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER BAY AND
OCEAN DURING THE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/SATURDAY EVENING TIMEFRAME.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THEN
SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ633-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/ESS
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/ESS
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MAS/TMG/DAP
MARINE...MAS







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300734
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
334 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WITH DRIER WEATHER. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NEAR SFC FLOW VEERED NWRLY OVERNIGHT AND A PLUME OF LAKE MOISTURE
DEVELOPED LOW STRATOCU OVER THE SRN SHORES OF LAKE ERIE AND AREAS
ADJACENT. SRN EXPANSION OF THIS CLOUD COVER HAS NOT BEEN NEARLY AS
AGGRESSIVE AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...HOWEVER...AS DRY AIR ALOFT HAS
BEEN ABLE TO ERODE THE MOISTURE UNDER THE UPPER TROF AXIS. THIS
HAS SQUASHED WIDESPREAD LAKE-INDUCED SHOWERS AND HAS LED TO
ALMOST THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA REMAINING CLEAR THROUGH THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS. WINDS HAVE GENERALLY STAYED UP OVERNIGHT ALLOWING SOME
MIXING OF THE LOW LEVELS...BUT SHELTERED LOCATIONS UNDER CLEAR
SKIES HAVE RADIATED DOWN INTO THE MID 30S.

LOOKING FORWARD...CLOUD FORECAST DIFFICULT THROUGH TODAY AS MOST
HI-RES MODELS HAVE NOT FULLY RESOLVED THE EXTENT OF THE DRY AIR
INHIBITING CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN THE LOW LEVELS. MODIFIED THE
INITIAL SKY FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND HAVE
GRADUALLY BLENDED INTO TONED DOWN VERSION OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. EXPECTING TO SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSIST ALONG
THE NORTH UNDER THE LAKE ENHANCED REGION WHILE GETTING AT LEAST
SOME PATCHES OF SUN FURTHER SOUTH IN THE CWA.

FORECAST AREA REMAINS COOL TODAY UNDER NW FLOW REGIME. WITH VERY
LOW SPREAD ACROSS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...HAVE MAINTAIN CURRENT
FORECAST WITH MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON BIAS CORRECTED MET.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES IS EXPD TO BLD IN UNDER BROAD UPR TROFG THU. THE UPR
TROF IS EXPD TO DEEPEN BY FRI AS AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW AND CDFNT
ADVN ACRS THE RGN. THE DEEPENING TROF IS PROGGED TO DVLP INTO A
CLOSED LOW OVR THE OH VLY FRI NGT...MOVING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
BY LT SAT. MOISTURE AND OMEGA ON THE NRN SIDE OF THE LOW IS EXPD
TO KEEP PCPN ACRS THE RGN INTO SAT. CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND
SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE A RAIN/SNOW SHWR MIX BY FRI NGT INTO
SAT...OR EVEN A CHG OVR TO ALL SNW ESP IN THE RIDGES SE OF PIT.
SOME LGT ACCUMS ARE PSBL MAINLY IN THE COLDER HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS...THOUGH VRY LTL UPSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT IS EXPD WITH
N-NNE WNDS SAT. PCPN CHCS SHOULD BE DCRG LTR SAT AS THE UPR LOW
BEGINS TO EXIT OFF THE COAST.

TEMPS SHOULD AVG 5-10 DEG BLO SEASONAL LVLS LT THIS WK...AND ARND
15 DEG BLO SEASONAL LVLS SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WPC SUGGESTS FOLLOWING ENSEMBLE MEANS IN THIS ANOMALOUS PATTERN AND
SEE NO REASON TO DISAGREE.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING DEEP SYSTEM.  WITH THE NORTHEAST TROUGH HANGING AROUND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW
NORMAL.  SATURDAY NIGHT MAY BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON THUS FAR
WITH WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE 20S.  MODERATION CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS RIDGING DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN.  THE NEXT FRONT
MAY ARRIVE COME TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN SHOWER CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERAL VFR FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH
MVFR CIGS COULD BE OBSERVED TEMPORARILY THIS MORNING AS LARGE
STRATO CU FIELD DESCENDS FOLLOWING A PLUME OF LLVL MOISTURE FROM
LAKE ERIE. FKL AND DUJ WILL STAY MVFR THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE
IMPROVING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON

COLDER AIR WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR
STRATOCU DECK TO EVENTUALLY THIN OUT.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS DEEPENING LOW
PRES IS PROJECTED TO SHUNT A BROAD MSTR SWATH OVR THE UPR OH
REGION. ENSUING COLD ADVCTN WL THEN MAINTAIN STRATOCU POTENTIAL
UNTIL SFC HIGH STRENGTHENS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300732
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
332 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY. MEANWHILE...WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
SATURDAY BEFORE EXITING THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MRNG SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A SFC CDFNT HAVING PUSHED S AND E
OF THE FA. THAT FNT WILL CONT TO MOVE E AND S THROUGH TDA WHILE WK
SFC HI PRES BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE RGN FM THE WNW. REGIONAL
RADAR SHOWING LAST VESTIGES OF RA INVOF EXTREME ESE VA AND CSTL NE
NC. XPCG THE RA TO TO BE OUT OF THE FA BY 12Z/30. CLRG RMNS SLO FM
THE WNW AND W/ LGT/CALM WNDS AND RA...PATCHY/AREAS OF FG HAVE
DEVELOPED OVR PORTIONS OF THE PDMNT W OF RIC.

WILL INCLUDE FG FOR MNLY AREAS W OF I95 THROUGH ABT 13Z/30...OTRW
XPCG CLRG TO CONT FM THE WNW THROUGH THE MRNG HRS (LASTLY INVOF
IMMEDIATE CST IN SE VA/NE NC). AVGG OUT P/MSNY OVR THE FA TDA...W/
HI TEMPS RANGING FM THE L/M60S NNW TO M/U60S SSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FA TO BE INBETWEEN FNTL BNDRY (WELL) OFF THE CST AND STRONG UPR
LVL SYS DIVING SE FM THE LAKES/OH VLY ON TNGT INTO FRI NGT. CLR-
PCLDY AND COOLER TNGT W/ LO TEMPS M/U30S INLAND TO ARND 50F ALG SE
CSTL AREAS. STARTING OUT MNLY SKC FRI MRNG...THEN VRB/INCRSG CLDS
BY THE AFTN. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S FAR NW TO L/M60S ELSW.

ALL MDLS CONT TO SHOW DYNAMIC WX SYS DEVELOP INVOF MDATLC CST FM
LT FRI THROUGH SAT. STRONG UPR LVL LO PRES CONTS TO DIVE ESE
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS...WHILE AT SAME TIME...SFC LO PRES SLOWLY
DEVELOPS OFF THE CST (INVOF LINGERING FNTL BNDRY). GIVEN FCST OF
HOW FAR S UPR LVL SYS TRACKS...MOST SGFNT IMPACTS FM THIS STORM
SITUATION APR TO BE FOR ERN/CSTL LOCATIONS (PRIMARILY) FM SAT AFTN
INTO 1ST PART OF SAT NGT. POPS TO INCRS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
SAT...W/ HIGHEST POPS (60-80%) NR THE CST...TO MNLY 30-50% POPS
ELSW. ADDITIONALLY...INCRSG CONCERN TO STRONG NNE WNDS (TO 35-45
MPH) NR THE CST ALONG W/ MINOR TO PTNTLLY MODERATE CSTL FLOODING
(INVOF SRN BAY...ALG THE ATLC BEACHES). WILL HIGHLIGHT PTNTL
IMPACTS IN HWO.

LO TEMPS FRI NGT MNLY IN THE L/M40S INLAND TO ARND 50F AT THE
IMMEDIATE CST. HI TEMPS SAT IN THE L/M50S INLAND TO ARND 60F NR
THE CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WINDY/RAINY SAT EVE (CLOSE TO THE CST) AS STM STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE.
THE SFC LO BEGINS TO EXIT THE MDATLC CSTL WTRS AFT MDNGT SAT NGT.
CLRG FM THE W WILL BEGIN AFT 03-06Z/02.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY...BEFORE
SETTLING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HIGHS SUNDAY
SHOULD ONLY RISE TO 50-55 UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AS CAA
CONTINUES. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS FALLING TO AROUND 30-32 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
(UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN FAVORED COLD SPOTS)...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
VALUES (35-40) FOR FAR SE PORTIONS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS FALL
(INLAND) ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A SLOW MODERATING TREND IS
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES
OFFSHORE. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 55-60...WITH LOW/MID 60S
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER COOL
TUESDAY MORNING RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 30S INTERIOR TO LOW 40S
FOR SE COASTAL LOCATIONS. LOWS SHOULD MODERATE INTO THE LOW/MID
40S WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW WITH
RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT PSUHING SOUTH TO NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER CURRENTLY...WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NNE AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KECG (WHERE IT WILL
DO AROUND 01Z). SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AFFECTING TAF
SITES...STILL MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z. HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W ON THU
CREATING VFR CONDITIONS THRU FRI AFTN. UA/SFC LO PRES WILL THEN
AFFECT THE REGION LATE FRI NGT INTO SAT NGT WITH PCPN AND LWR
CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA`S HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THRU 7AM FOR CSTL WTRS S OF CAPE CHARLES
LIGHT WHERE 5 FT SEAS PERSIST...AND CURRITUCK SOUND DUE TO 15-20 KT
WINDS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS HAVE COMMENCED OVR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY SO
HEADLINES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED THERE. FOR TDA...EXPECT N WINDS AVGG
10-15 KT AS A COLD FRNT PUSHES S OF THE AREA AND BROAD SFC HI PRES
BLDS IN FM THE W. SIMILAR WINDS INTO TNGT WITH WEAK HI PRES OVR THE
MID ATLANTIC. THE HI DISSIPATES BY FRI...WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING
SUB-SCA (10-15 KT N WINDS AND 2-3 FT SEAS).

A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY STRONG CAA LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. A NNW
WIND IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND A PERIOD
OF GALE CONDITIONS IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SCA CONDITIONS LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. IF RAPID CYCLOGENESIS EVENTUALLY OCCURS OFF THE VA COAST A
BRIEF PERIOD OF STORM FORCE GUSTS IS POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER BAY AND
OCEAN DURING THE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/SATURDAY EVENING TIMEFRAME.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THEN
SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ633-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/ESS
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/ESS
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG/DAP
MARINE...MAS


























000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300534
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
134 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WITH DRIER WEATHER. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MIDNIGHT UPDATE
MINOR CHANGES MADE TO REFLECT CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS.
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS TWEAKED TO REFLECT LATEST HRRR/LAMP GUIDANCE. WITH
A RELATIVELY DRY FORECAST FOR TODAY...DONT FORESEE MAKING LARGE
CHANGES WITH NEXT UPDATE.
TAX

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
THE DRY SLOT HAS MOVED MOST OF ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA...AND A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES IS BRINGING A CHANGE IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS QUICKLY ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS
TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS OUR AREA. ADDITIONALLY...THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN COUNTIES DOWNWIND FROM
LAKE ERIE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES ITS TREND TO THE NORTHWEST
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SHEAR IN THE LOW LEVEL DECREASES. THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUDS.
FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES IS EXPD TO BLD IN UNDER BROAD UPR TROFG THU. THE UPR
TROF IS EXPD TO DEEPEN BY FRI AS AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW AND CDFNT
ADVN ACRS THE RGN. THE DEEPENING TROF IS PROGGED TO DVLP INTO A
CLOSED LOW OVR THE OH VLY FRI NGT...MOVING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
BY LT SAT. MOISTURE AND OMEGA ON THE NRN SIDE OF THE LOW IS EXPD
TO KEEP PCPN ACRS THE RGN INTO SAT. CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND
SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE A RAIN/SNOW SHWR MIX BY FRI NGT INTO
SAT...OR EVEN A CHG OVR TO ALL SNW ESP IN THE RIDGES SE OF PIT.
SOME LGT ACCUMS ARE PSBL MAINLY IN THE COLDER HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS...THOUGH VRY LTL UPSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT IS EXPD WITH
N-NNE WNDS SAT. PCPN CHCS SHOULD BE DCRG LTR SAT AS THE UPR LOW
BEGINS TO EXIT OFF THE COAST.

TEMPS SHOULD AVG 5-10 DEG BLO SEASONAL LVLS LT THIS WK...AND ARND
15 DEG BLO SEASONAL LVLS SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WPC SUGGESTS FOLLOWING ENSEMBLE MEANS IN THIS ANOMALOUS PATTERN AND
SEE NO REASON TO DISAGREE.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING DEEP SYSTEM.  WITH THE NORTHEAST TROUGH HANGING AROUND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW
NORMAL.  SATURDAY NIGHT MAY BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON THUS FAR
WITH WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE 20S.  MODERATION CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS RIDGING DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN.  THE NEXT FRONT
MAY ARRIVE COME TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN SHOWER CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERAL VFR FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH
MVFR CIGS COULD BE OBSERVED TEMPORARILY THIS MORNING AS LARGE
STRATO CU FIELD DESCENDS FOLLOWING A PLUME OF LLVL MOISTURE FROM
LAKE ERIE. FKL AND DUJ WILL STAY MVFR THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE
IMPROVING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON

COLDER AIR WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR
STRATOCU DECK TO EVENTUALLY THIN OUT.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS DEEPENING LOW
PRES IS PROJECTED TO SHUNT A BROAD MSTR SWATH OVR THE UPR OH
REGION. ENSUING COLD ADVCTN WL THEN MAINTAIN STRATOCU POTENTIAL
UNTIL SFC HIGH STRENGTHENS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300421
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1221 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WITH DRIER WEATHER. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
...MIDNIGHT UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES MADE TO REFLECT CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS.
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS TWEAKED TO REFLECT LATEST HRRR/LAMP GUIDANCE. WITH
A RELATIVELY DRY FORECAST FOR TODAY...DONT FORESEE MAKING LARGE CHANGES
WITH NEXT UPDATE.
TAX

...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE DRY SLOT HAS MOVED MOST OF ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA...AND A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES IS BRINGING A CHANGE IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS QUICKLY ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS
TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS OUR AREA. ADDITIONALLY...THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN COUNTIES DOWNWIND FROM
LAKE ERIE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES ITS TREND TO THE NORTHWEST
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SHEAR IN THE LOW LEVEL DECREASES. THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUDS. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES IS EXPD TO BLD IN UNDER BROAD UPR TROFG THU. THE UPR
TROF IS EXPD TO DEEPEN BY FRI AS AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW AND CDFNT
ADVN ACRS THE RGN. THE DEEPENING TROF IS PROGGED TO DVLP INTO A
CLOSED LOW OVR THE OH VLY FRI NGT...MOVING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
BY LT SAT. MOISTURE AND OMEGA ON THE NRN SIDE OF THE LOW IS EXPD
TO KEEP PCPN ACRS THE RGN INTO SAT. CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND
SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE A RAIN/SNOW SHWR MIX BY FRI NGT INTO
SAT...OR EVEN A CHG OVR TO ALL SNW ESP IN THE RIDGES SE OF PIT.
SOME LGT ACCUMS ARE PSBL MAINLY IN THE COLDER HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS...THOUGH VRY LTL UPSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT IS EXPD WITH
N-NNE WNDS SAT. PCPN CHCS SHOULD BE DCRG LTR SAT AS THE UPR LOW
BEGINS TO EXIT OFF THE COAST.

TEMPS SHOULD AVG 5-10 DEG BLO SEASONAL LVLS LT THIS WK...AND ARND
15 DEG BLO SEASONAL LVLS SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WPC SUGGESTS FOLLOWING ENSEMBLE MEANS IN THIS ANOMALOUS PATTERN AND
SEE NO REASON TO DISAGREE.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING DEEP SYSTEM.  WITH THE NORTHEAST TROUGH HANGING AROUND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW
NORMAL.  SATURDAY NIGHT MAY BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON THUS FAR
WITH WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE 20S.  MODERATION CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS RIDGING DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN.  THE NEXT FRONT
MAY ARRIVE COME TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN SHOWER CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERAL VFR FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. USING A
BLEND OF LATEST OBS AND MODEL DATA...MOST SITES SHOULD REMAIN JUST
INTO THE VFR CAT AS LARGE STRATOCU DECK DESCENDS OVER THE AREA
WITH THE NEXT SHOT OF COLDER AIR. WILL PUSH FKL AND DUJ INTO THE
MVFR CAT WITH THE CLOUD DECK.

COLDER AIR WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR
STRATOCU DECK TO EVENTUALLY THIN OUT.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS DEEPENING LOW
PRES IS PROJECTED TO SHUNT A BROAD MSTR SWATH OVR THE UPR OH
REGION. ENSUING COLD ADVCTN WL THEN MAINTAIN STRATOCU POTENTIAL
UNTIL SFC HIGH STRENGTHENS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300200
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1000 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY BEFORE EXITING THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW APPROACHING THE VA/NC BORDER...HAD SOME
WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE COAST...WITH A MORE MODEST
SHIFT TO NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KT FARTHER INLAND. FORECAST GENLY
IN GOOD SHAPE...WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT AS MAINLY LIGHT ANA-FRONTAL PRECIP STILL ONGOING OVER
MUCH OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...WITH SCATTERED HEAVIER SHOWERS OVER
THE VA ERN SHORE AND TO THE SSW IN NC.

BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS...EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND ALSO IN QPF FOR FAR SE VA AND NE NC AS THE FRONT SLOWLY DROPS
INTO NC.

THE SATELLITE SHOWS THAT THE CLEARING LINE IS QUICKLY EXITING THE
MOUNTAINS AND SHOULD REACH TOWARD THE I-95 CORRIDOR BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE SHOWERS AT THAT TIME.
THIS CLEARING LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE PROGRESS SE TONIGHT AND
BY 10 TO 12Z...THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL HAVE COME TO AN END.
OVERALL...QPF SHOULD BE AROUND 0.25" - 0.50" IN THE SE AND AROUND
0.10" TO 0.20" OR LESS ELSEWHERE.

TEMPERATURES HAVE RAPIDLY DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
OVER MOST AREAS...OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AVG IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S
NW TO THE LWR 50S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AND THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE
REGIONS WEATHER. THIS WILL LEAD TO MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS. WITH THE COOLING ALOFT BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ON THURSDAY WITH GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

THE BIG PART OF THE MID RANGE TIME FRAME IS A STRONG DIGGING
TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE THAT DIGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND CLOSES
OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE DIGGING TROUGH INDUCING
A STRONG SFC LOW TO FORM OFF THE CAROLINA/VA COAST. BUT FOR
DETAILS...THE 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW UNCERTAINTY AS THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING AND DIFFERENT
LOCATIONS FOR THE SFC LOW TO DEVELOP. RIGHT NOW HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH IS A MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THE NAM
TO THE SOUTH AND 00Z ECMWF WHICH WAS TO THE NORTH. THE 12Z ECMWF
CAME IN FURTHER SOUTH...BUT WITH THE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE
NORTHERN OUTER BANKS IS A FAVORED LOCATION SO LEAN THAT DIRECTION.
AS THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS...SHOULD SEE CLOUDS INCREASE FRIDAY
EVENING WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING LATE IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL SHIFT SE OVERNIGHT AS THE
SFC LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP FOLLOWED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE NE OVER
THE CWA. THIS NE FLOW WILL HELP TO BRING MORE MOISTURE IN AND HELP
CREATE A WET/COOL DAY ON SATURDAY. AS THE SFC LOW DEVELOPS AND
SLIDES OFF THE COAST...THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND THE RAIN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE THE LOW EXITS BY SUN MORNING. THE
WINDS..20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUST TO 40..MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A
WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE COAST FROM NORFOLK THROUGH THE OUTER BANKS
SAT AFTN/EVENING.

FOR TEMPS FRI NIGHT - SAT NIGHT...WITH THE COOL AIR ALOFT COMING
IN...WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE 40S FRI. SATURDAY WITH THE CLOUDY AND
DAMP CONDITIONS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S. GUIDANCE HOWEVER HAS
BEEN SHOWING A WARMING TREND OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS...BUT CURRENT
12Z MEX SHOWING READINGS IN THE 60S LOOKS UNREALISTIC. FOR SAT
NIGHT...HAVE KEPT READINGS IN THE 40S THINKING THAT CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOW TO CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY...BEFORE
SETTLING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HIGHS SUNDAY
SHOULD ONLY RISE TO 50-55 UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AS CAA CONTINUES.
THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOWS FALLING TO AROUND 30-32 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA (UPPER 20S
POSSIBLE IN FAVORED COLD SPOTS)...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES
(35-40) FOR FAR SE PORTIONS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE THE
FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS FALL ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. A SLOW MODERATING TREND IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM
55-60...WITH LOW/MID 60S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD REMAIN RATHER COOL TUESDAY MORNING RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID
30S INTERIOR TO LOW 40S FOR SE COASTAL LOCATIONS. LOWS SHOULD
MODERATE INTO THE LOW/MID 40S WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS
RATHER LOW WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH
THIS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT PSUHING SOUTH TO NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER CURRENTLY...WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NNE AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KECG (WHERE IT WILL
DO AROUND 01Z). SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AFFECTING TAF
SITES...STILL MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z. HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W ON THU
CREATING VFR CONDITIONS THRU FRI AFTN. UA/SFC LO PRES WILL THEN
AFFECT THE REGION LATE FRI NGT INTO SAT NGT WITH PCPN AND LWR
CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
CONTINUED SCA`S FOR THE COASTAL WATERS S OF CAPE CHARLES AND CURRITUCK
SOUND AND THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. 15-20 KT WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND
25 KT WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY THU AM HRS. SEAS FOR NC COASTAL
WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 5 FT...GENLY 4 FT OR LESS
ELSEWHERE.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY AND THEN DISSIPATES BY
FRIDAY. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY STRONG CAA LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NW. A NNW WIND IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND A PERIOD OF GALE CONDITIONS IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SCA CONDITIONS
LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. IF RAPID CYCLOGENESIS EVENTUALLY
OCCURS OFF THE VA COAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF STORM FORCE GUSTS IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER BAY AND OCEAN DURING THE LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/SATURDAY EVENING TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ634-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ633-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS
NEAR TERM...ESS/LKB
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG/DAP
MARINE...AJZ/DAP







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300128
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
928 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK GREAT LAKES DISTURBANCE TONIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE DRY SLOT HAS MOVED MOST OF ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA...AND A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES IS BRINGING A CHANGE IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS QUICKLY ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS
TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS OUR AREA. ADDITIONALLY...THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN COUNTIES DOWNWIND FROM
LAKE ERIE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES ITS TREND TO THE NORTHWEST
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SHEAR IN THE LOW LEVEL DECREASES.
DEEP ENOUGH SATURATION COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE MAY ALLOW FOR A
SPRINKLE IN THE RIDGES OVERNIGHT AS WELL...HOWEVER THE TIME FRAME
DURING WHICH THIS COULD OCCUR IS RATHER SHORT AS RIDGING QUICKLY
BUILDS IN TOWARD MORNING...ALLOWING FOR A RAPID INCREASE IN THE
SHEAR IN THE COLUMN AND A DEGRADATION OF THE CONDITIONS NECESSARY
FOR AN UPSLOPE SPRINKLE. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES IS EXPD TO BLD IN UNDER BROAD UPR TROFG THU. THE UPR
TROF IS EXPD TO DEEPEN BY FRI AS AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW AND CDFNT
ADVN ACRS THE RGN. THE DEEPENING TROF IS PROGGED TO DVLP INTO A
CLOSED LOW OVR THE OH VLY FRI NGT...MOVING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
BY LT SAT. MOISTURE AND OMEGA ON THE NRN SIDE OF THE LOW IS EXPD
TO KEEP PCPN ACRS THE RGN INTO SAT. CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND
SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE A RAIN/SNOW SHWR MIX BY FRI NGT INTO
SAT...OR EVEN A CHG OVR TO ALL SNW ESP IN THE RIDGES SE OF PIT.
SOME LGT ACCUMS ARE PSBL MAINLY IN THE COLDER HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS...THOUGH VRY LTL UPSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT IS EXPD WITH
N-NNE WNDS SAT. PCPN CHCS SHOULD BE DCRG LTR SAT AS THE UPR LOW
BEGINS TO EXIT OFF THE COAST.

TEMPS SHOULD AVG 5-10 DEG BLO SEASONAL LVLS LT THIS WK...AND ARND
15 DEG BLO SEASONAL LVLS SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WPC SUGGESTS FOLLOWING ENSEMBLE MEANS IN THIS ANOMALOUS PATTERN AND
SEE NO REASON TO DISAGREE.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING DEEP SYSTEM.  WITH THE NORTHEAST TROUGH HANGING AROUND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW
NORMAL.  SATURDAY NIGHT MAY BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON THUS FAR
WITH WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE 20S.  MODERATION CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS RIDGING DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN.  THE NEXT FRONT
MAY ARRIVE COME TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN SHOWER CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERAL VFR FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. USING A
BLEND OF LATEST OBS AND MODEL DATA...MOST SITES SHOULD REMAIN JUST
INTO THE VFR CAT AS LARGE STRATOCU DECK DESCENDS OVER THE AREA
WITH THE NEXT SHOT OF COLDER AIR. WILL PUSH FKL AND DUJ INTO THE
MVFR CAT WITH THE CLOUD DECK.

COLDER AIR WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR
STRATOCU DECK TO EVENTUALLY THIN OUT.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS DEEPENING LOW
PRES IS PROJECTED TO SHUNT A BROAD MSTR SWATH OVR THE UPR OH
REGION. ENSUING COLD ADVCTN WL THEN MAINTAIN STRATOCU POTENTIAL
UNTIL SFC HIGH STRENGTHENS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KLWX 300125
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
925 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE AREA
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DESCEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE CAROLINAS
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THE BUILD
INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 01Z...1022MB SFC HIGH IS OVER IL/MO. LEADING EDGE OF COLD
FRON IS MOVING THROUGH NERN NC WITH ANA-FRONTAL PRECIP EXTENDING
BACK TO SRN MD. THE FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EVENING.

GROUND FOG IN AREAS THAT GOT RAIN THEN CLEARED OUT THIS EVENING
WILL NOT LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT DUE TO A BREEZE IN THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

COOL...CANADIAN AIR WILL BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY...MAX TEMPS
WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT 60F WITH A NW FLOW 10 TO 12 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. DRY. NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF
STORM SYSTEMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND CAROLINAS. FAIRLY LOW
SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THIS PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: THE TRACK AND INTENSITY ALONG IF
ANY INTERACTION BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS APPROACHING THE REGION
HAS BEEN A STRUGGLE TO SAY THE LEAST FOR THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND
THE RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER THERE HAS
BEEN MORE CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST MOVES OUT TO SEA
GOING EAST OF CAPE COD. THEN THE LOW ACROSS OHIO VALLEY MOVES EAST
ALONG A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED TO NO INTERACTION BETWEEN THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS DIVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. THIS WOULD
BRING IN SOME RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY PERHAPS
MIXED WITH WET SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. WITH STEADIER PRECIPITATION
DYNAMICAL COOLING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD CHANGE RAIN OVER TO
SNOW AS WELL, STILL WAY TO EARLY TO HONE IN ON ANY POTENTIAL
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD THIS OPTION OCCUR. HOWEVER WE DID PUT IN SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF VA/WV AND MD.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH VERY WINDY NOW AND WE COULD EASILY
SEE SOME GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS.
TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT DOWN OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE STEADIEST
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. AREAS FROM DC TO BWI WILL LIKELY
SEE MORE INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND MORE OF A EAST FLOW OFF THE WATER
ALLOWING HIGH TO GET TO CLOSE TO 50 ON SATURDAY. MET, MAV GUIDANCE
SETS ALONG WITH THE ECMWF WERE INCORPORATED IN THESE PERIODS. WINDS
WILL SWITCH TO NORTHWESTERLY BY SUNDAY WITH STRONG CAA. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT WE MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
PRESENTED BY THE MET AND MAV AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE ON SUNDAY.


MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION SO
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT GIVE WAY TO WAA FROM
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
GRADUAL WARMUP IN THIS PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS THEN LIKELY TO PUSH
INTO THE REGION BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY HAVE INCLUDED A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT. WENT WARMER ON TUESDAY GIVEN THE
WAA AND 925 MB TEMPS APPROACHING 9C, GETTING THE REGION INTO THE
60`S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR WITH A LIGHT NW WIND OVERNIGHT. ANY GROUND FOG THIS EVENING SHOULD
NOT LAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT DUE TO LIGHT BREEZE.

THURSDAY...VFR WITH DIURNAL SC IN THE AFTN. LIGHT N TO NW WIND.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MAY BRING MVFR CEILINGS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES BUILD IN THROUGH THU...NWLY FLOW UP TO 10 TO 15 KT.

SEAS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE BY SATURDAY WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
SCA CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JACKSON
PREVIOUS...GAINES/LN/DRAG WFO MT HOLLY







000
FXUS61 KPHI 300120
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
920 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA
THURSDAY BEFORE WEAKENING EARLY FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL COMBINE
WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY WHILE
STRENGTHENING, THEN TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM OUR AREA SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS A WELL DEFINED
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT TIED TO LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND IS WELL EAST OF
OUR COAST. A WEAK SURFACE LOW THOUGH DEVELOPED ALONG IT IN EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA, HOWEVER THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT CONTINUES TO
TRANSLATE FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA. AS A RESULT, ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW
JERSEY ARE EXPECTED TO END DURING THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING.

THE ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR IS ALLOWING THE CLOUDS TO THIN FROM WEST
TO EAST, AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. THE DRYING NEAR THE
SURFACE THOUGH WAS HALTED FOR A TIME ESPECIALLY WHERE THE WINDS WENT
CALM. THIS RESULTED IN SOME LOCALIZED FOG ACROSS MAINLY OUR WESTERN
ZONES WHERE THE CLOUD COVER THINNED OUT QUICKER. A PUSH OF DRIER
LOW-LEVEL AIR THOUGH IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AS
A RESULT, ANY FOG SHOULD TEND TO BE LOCALIZED AND PERHAPS EVEN
DISSIPATE. THE COLDER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MAY ALLOW STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TO OUR WEST TO MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE TWEAKED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, AND
THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT FOR THE
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT FIELDS. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
LOW TEMPERATURES ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A NICE FALL DAY WITH LIGHT NW WINDS AND DIURNAL AFTN SC....PROBABLY
MOST PREVALENT NW PTN OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS JUST A BIT BELOW
NORMAL.

FCST BASIS: 50 50 BLENDED 12Z/29 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE WITH TEMPS RAISED
SLIGHTLY PER THE MILDER 12Z/29 ECMWF 2M TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE
REGION...SO A FAIR FCST IS EXPECTED FOR THESE PERIODS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL THU NIGHT WITH LOW RANGING FROM THE
MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH/WEST/PINE BARRENS...TO THE UPPER 30S
TO LOW 40S ELSEWHERE.

FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRI
NIGHT AND THEN COMBINES WITH A SECOND LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SAT. THIS LOW THEN TRACK NORTHEAST THRU SAT NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES
ARRIVING ACROSS THE AREA SAT. SCT SHOWERS FRI NIGHT WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA SAT WITH THE GREATEST POPS SAT/SAT NIGHT. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AT THE END SAT NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT. HIGHS SAT WILL
BE COLD WITH WIDESPREAD 40S OVER THE AREA. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S.

SUN AND SUN NIGHT... THE DEEP LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE AWAY FROM
THE AREA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
A COOL AND BREEZY DAY SUNDAY...SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY. HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT MOSTLY
IN THE 40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S FAR NORTH. WINDS GUSTING TO 20 TO 25
MPH MOSTLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.

MON THRU TUE...ANOTHER PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND CREST OVER THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC TUE MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL A BIT BELOW
NORMAL MON THEN NEAR NORMAL FOR TUE.

TUE NIGHT THRU WED...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WELL TO THE NORTH AND
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA
WED. WE HAVE USED WPC POPS/TEMPS FOR THESE PERIODS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS MOSTLY
IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...VFR CEILINGS CONTINUING TO GENERALLY THIN OUT FROM WEST
TO EAST. A SHOWER LINGERING NEAR KMIV AND KACY ON SOUTH AND EAST
THIS EVENING. LIGHT WEST OR SOUTHWEST WIND BECOMING NORTHWEST, WITH
SOME AREAS HAVING A CALM OR LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND. SOME LOCALIZED
IFR/MVFR FOG ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AT KRDG AND KABE, AND POSSIBLY
KMIV LATER.

THURSDAY...VFR WITH SOME STRATOCUMULUS AT OR ABOVE 4000 FEET. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A CEILING DEVELOPS FOR A TIME IN THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR THE KPHL METRO ON NORTH AND WEST. NORTHWEST
WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT...LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES WITH
OCNL SHOWERS. GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING SAT AND LASTING INTO SAT
NIGHT.

SUNDAY THRU MONDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY 5 TO
15 KT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU FRI...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.
FRI NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...SCA CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT BUILDING TO GALES
SAT WHICH CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. ROUGH SURF AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
   WITH LOWER VSBYS.
MON...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MON NGT THRU WED...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL
DELIVER ELEVATED WATER LEVELS THIS WEEKEND. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
MAY OCCUR DURING THE HIGH TIDES DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GORSE/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300019
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
819 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY BEFORE EXITING THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW APPROACHING THE VA/NC BORDER...HAD SOME
WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE COAST...WITH A MORE MODEST
SHIFT TO NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KT FARTHER INLAND. FORECAST GENLY
IN GOOD SHAPE...WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT AS MAINLY LIGHT ANA-FRONTAL PRECIP STILL ONGOING OVER
MUCH OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...WITH SCATTERED HEAVIER SHOWERS OVER
THE VA ERN SHORE AND TO THE SSW IN NC.

BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS...EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND ALSO IN QPF FOR FAR SE VA AND NE NC AS THE FRONT SLOWLY DROPS
INTO NC.

THE SATELLITE SHOWS THAT THE CLEARING LINE IS QUICKLY EXITING THE
MOUNTAINS AND SHOULD REACH TOWARD THE I-95 CORRIDOR BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE SHOWERS AT THAT TIME.
THIS CLEARING LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE PROGRESS SE TONIGHT AND
BY 10 TO 12Z...THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL HAVE COME TO AN END.
OVERALL...QPF SHOULD BE AROUND 0.25" - 0.50" IN THE SE AND AROUND
0.10" TO 0.20" OR LESS ELSEWHERE.

TEMPERATURES HAVE RAPIDLY DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
OVER MOST AREAS...OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AVG IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S
NW TO THE LWR 50S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AND THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE
REGIONS WEATHER. THIS WILL LEAD TO MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS. WITH THE COOLING ALOFT BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ON THURSDAY WITH GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

THE BIG PART OF THE MID RANGE TIME FRAME IS A STRONG DIGGING
TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE THAT DIGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND CLOSES
OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE DIGGING TROUGH INDUCING
A STRONG SFC LOW TO FORM OFF THE CAROLINA/VA COAST. BUT FOR
DETAILS...THE 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW UNCERTAINTY AS THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING AND DIFFERENT
LOCATIONS FOR THE SFC LOW TO DEVELOP. RIGHT NOW HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH IS A MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THE NAM
TO THE SOUTH AND 00Z ECMWF WHICH WAS TO THE NORTH. THE 12Z ECMWF
CAME IN FURTHER SOUTH...BUT WITH THE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE
NORTHERN OUTER BANKS IS A FAVORED LOCATION SO LEAN THAT DIRECTION.
AS THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS...SHOULD SEE CLOUDS INCREASE FRIDAY
EVENING WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING LATE IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL SHIFT SE OVERNIGHT AS THE
SFC LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP FOLLOWED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE NE OVER
THE CWA. THIS NE FLOW WILL HELP TO BRING MORE MOISTURE IN AND HELP
CREATE A WET/COOL DAY ON SATURDAY. AS THE SFC LOW DEVELOPS AND
SLIDES OFF THE COAST...THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND THE RAIN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE THE LOW EXITS BY SUN MORNING. THE
WINDS..20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUST TO 40..MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A
WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE COAST FROM NORFOLK THROUGH THE OUTER BANKS
SAT AFTN/EVENING.

FOR TEMPS FRI NIGHT - SAT NIGHT...WITH THE COOL AIR ALOFT COMING
IN...WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE 40S FRI. SATURDAY WITH THE CLOUDY AND
DAMP CONDITIONS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S. GUIDANCE HOWEVER HAS
BEEN SHOWING A WARMING TREND OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS...BUT CURRENT
12Z MEX SHOWING READINGS IN THE 60S LOOKS UNREALISTIC. FOR SAT
NIGHT...HAVE KEPT READINGS IN THE 40S THINKING THAT CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOW TO CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY...BEFORE
SETTLING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HIGHS SUNDAY
SHOULD ONLY RISE TO 50-55 UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AS CAA CONTINUES.
THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOWS FALLING TO AROUND 30-32 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA (UPPER 20S
POSSIBLE IN FAVORED COLD SPOTS)...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES
(35-40) FOR FAR SE PORTIONS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE THE
FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS FALL ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. A SLOW MODERATING TREND IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM
55-60...WITH LOW/MID 60S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD REMAIN RATHER COOL TUESDAY MORNING RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID
30S INTERIOR TO LOW 40S FOR SE COASTAL LOCATIONS. LOWS SHOULD
MODERATE INTO THE LOW/MID 40S WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS
RATHER LOW WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH
THIS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT PSUHING SOUTH TO NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER CURRENTLY...WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NNE AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KECG (WHERE IT WILL
DO AROUND 01Z). SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AFFECTING TAF
SITES...STILL MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z. HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W ON THU
CREATING VFR CONDITIONS THRU FRI AFTN. UA/SFC LO PRES WILL THEN
AFFECT THE REGION LATE FRI NGT INTO SAT NGT WITH PCPN AND LWR
CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
RAISED SCA`S FOR THE COASTAL WATERS S OF CAPE CHARLES AND FOR THE
LOWER JAMES AND CURRITUCK SOUND. A BRIEF 1-2 HR SURGE OF 20-25 KT
WINDS WITH GUSTS TO ~30 KT...FOLLOWED BY MORE MARGINAL 15-20 KT
WINDS WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY THU AM HRS. SEAS FOR NC COASTAL
WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 5 FT...GENLY 4 FT OR LESS
ELSEWHERE.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY AND THEN DISSIPATES BY
FRIDAY. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY STRONG CAA LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NW. A NNW WIND IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND A PERIOD OF GALE CONDITIONS IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SCA CONDITIONS
LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. IF RAPID CYCLOGENESIS EVENTUALLY
OCCURS OFF THE VA COAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF STORM FORCE GUSTS IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER BAY AND OCEAN DURING THE LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/SATURDAY EVENING TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-638-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ633-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS
NEAR TERM...ESS/LKB
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG/DAP
MARINE...AJZ/DAP







000
FXUS61 KPHI 292142
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
542 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED TO OUR EAST. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY BEFORE WEAKENING EARLY
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL COMBINE WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST SATURDAY WHILE STRENGTHENING, THEN TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AWAY
FROM OUR AREA SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT IS EAST OF OUR AREA WITH THE BAND OF SHOWERS FAIRLY
FAR BEHIND IT. THE ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS THOUGH HAS BEEN FALLING
APART AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD AS IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE LARGE SCALE
FORCING SHIFTS AWAY FROM OUR AREA. HOWEVER, SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY
AND LIFT LOOKS TO SLIDE NEAR OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING AND
THEREFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR AWHILE WITH PERHAPS
EVEN AN INCREASE FOR A TIME THERE. THE POPS WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY,
WITH SOME DECREASE TO THE NORTH AND WEST AND HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

THE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED QUITE A BIT IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT, THEREFORE THE HOURLY GRIDS NEEDED ADJUSTMENTS.
THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN TO HELP ASSIST WITH THIS SO
FAR.

DURING THE NIGHT, CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE FROM WEST-SOUTHWEST TO
EAST-NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH SOME STRATOCUMULUS MAY MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF
OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A NICE FALL DAY WITH LIGHT NW WINDS AND DIURNAL AFTN SC....PROBABLY
MOST PREVALENT NW PTN OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS JUST A BIT BELOW
NORMAL.

FCST BASIS: 50 50 BLENDED 12Z/29 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE WITH TEMPS RAISED
SLIGHTLY PER THE MILDER 12Z/29 ECMWF 2M TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE
REGION...SO A FAIR FCST IS EXPECTED FOR THESE PERIODS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL THU NIGHT WITH LOW RANGING FROM THE
MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH/WEST/PINE BARRENS...TO THE UPPER 30S
TO LOW 40S ELSEWHERE.

FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRI
NIGHT AND THEN COMBINES WITH A SECOND LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SAT. THIS LOW THEN TRACK NORTHEAST THRU SAT NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES
ARRIVING ACROSS THE AREA SAT. SCT SHOWERS FRI NIGHT WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA SAT WITH THE GREATEST POPS SAT/SAT NIGHT. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AT THE END SAT NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT. HIGHS SAT WILL
BE COLD WITH WIDESPREAD 40S OVER THE AREA. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S.

SUN AND SUN NIGHT... THE DEEP LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE AWAY FROM
THE AREA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
A COOL AND BREEZY DAY SUNDAY...SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY. HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT MOSTLY
IN THE 40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S FAR NORTH. WINDS GUSTING TO 20 TO 25
MPH MOSTLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.

MON THRU TUE...ANOTHER PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND CREST OVER THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC TUE MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL A BIT BELOW
NORMAL MON THEN NEAR NORMAL FOR TUE.

TUE NIGHT THRU WED...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WELL TO THE NORTH AND
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA
WED. WE HAVE USED WPC POPS/TEMPS FOR THESE PERIODS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS MOSTLY
IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS FROM NEAR KTTN, KPHL METRO AND KILG
ON EASTWARD EARLY, THEN VFR CEILINGS CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST.
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. SOME POSSIBLE MVFR FOG AT KRDG, KABE
AND KMIV TOWARD DAYBREAK.

THURSDAY...VFR WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 4000 FEET, POSSIBLY
BRIEFLY BROKEN COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 KNOTS
OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT...LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES WITH
OCNL SHOWERS. GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING SAT AND LASTING INTO SAT
NIGHT.

SUNDAY THRU MONDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES THROUGH THURSDAY.

NW WIND BRIEFLY GUSTY TO 25 KT THIS EVENING SUBSEQUENT TO CFP OTRW
NW WIND 5 TO 15 KT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU FRI...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.
FRI NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...SCA CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT BUILDING TO GALES
SAT WHICH CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. ROUGH SURF AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
   WITH LOWER VSBYS.
MON...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MON NGT THRU WED...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL
DELIVER ELEVATED WATER LEVELS THIS WEEKEND. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
MAY OCCUR DURING THE HIGH TIDES DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
BUOY 44009 WIND OUT OF SERVICE AND NO SERVICE DATE FOR REPAIR AS
OF YET.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 292141
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
541 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK GREAT LAKES DISTURBANCE TONIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A LARGE SCALE DRY SLOT IS FINALLY TRAVERSING THE AREA THIS
EVENING...AS EVIDENCED BY EXTREMELY DRY AIR ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. DEEPER
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY FILL IN BEHIND THE DRY SLOT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID-LEVEL LOW AND AN ATTENDANT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS
EVENING. SIGNIFICANT CUMULUS DID DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BELOW THE MID-LEVEL
DRY SLOT...HOWEVER SATELLITE TRENDS ARE INDICATING THIS CUMULUS IS
QUICKLY DISSIPATING AS THE SUN SETS. AS SUCH...SOME AREAS MAY HAVE
A FEW HOURS OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BEFORE MORE COHERENT CLOUDS
MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA.

WITH THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH LATER THIS
EVENING...LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD FINALLY TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES DOWNWIND FROM LAKE ERIE. ADDITIONALLY...DEEP ENOUGH
SATURATION COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE MAY ALLOW FOR A SPRINKLE IN THE
RIDGES OVERNIGHT. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN
DRY WITH JUST INCREASING CLOUDS. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES IS EXPD TO BLD IN UNDER BROAD UPR TROFG THU. THE UPR
TROF IS EXPD TO DEEPEN BY FRI AS AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW AND CDFNT
ADVN ACRS THE RGN. THE DEEPENING TROF IS PROGGED TO DVLP INTO A
CLOSED LOW OVR THE OH VLY FRI NGT...MOVING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
BY LT SAT. MOISTURE AND OMEGA ON THE NRN SIDE OF THE LOW IS EXPD
TO KEEP PCPN ACRS THE RGN INTO SAT. CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND
SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE A RAIN/SNOW SHWR MIX BY FRI NGT INTO
SAT...OR EVEN A CHG OVR TO ALL SNW ESP IN THE RIDGES SE OF PIT.
SOME LGT ACCUMS ARE PSBL MAINLY IN THE COLDER HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS...THOUGH VRY LTL UPSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT IS EXPD WITH
N-NNE WNDS SAT. PCPN CHCS SHOULD BE DCRG LTR SAT AS THE UPR LOW
BEGINS TO EXIT OFF THE COAST.

TEMPS SHOULD AVG 5-10 DEG BLO SEASONAL LVLS LT THIS WK...AND ARND
15 DEG BLO SEASONAL LVLS SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WPC SUGGESTS FOLLOWING ENSEMBLE MEANS IN THIS ANOMALOUS PATTERN AND
SEE NO REASON TO DISAGREE.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING DEEP SYSTEM.  WITH THE NORTHEAST TROUGH HANGING AROUND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW
NORMAL.  SATURDAY NIGHT MAY BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON THUS FAR
WITH WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE 20S.  MODERATION CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS RIDGING DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN.  THE NEXT FRONT
MAY ARRIVE COME TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN SHOWER CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERAL VFR FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. USING A
BLEND OF LATEST OBS AND MODEL DATA...MOST SITES SHOULD REMAIN JUST
INTO THE VFR CAT AS LARGE STRATOCU DECK DESCENDS OVER THE AREA
WITH THE NEXT SHOT OF COLDER AIR. WILL PUSH FKL AND DUJ INTO THE
MVFR CAT WITH THE CLOUD DECK.

COLDER AIR WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR
STRATOCU DECK TO EVENTUALLY THIN OUT.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS DEEPENING LOW
PRES IS PROJECTED TO SHUNT A BROAD MSTR SWATH OVR THE UPR OH
REGION. ENSUING COLD ADVCTN WL THEN MAINTAIN STRATOCU POTENTIAL
UNTIL SFC HIGH STRENGTHENS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 292020
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
420 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS SLOW MARCH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND IT WILL CLEAR THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
SATURDAY BEFORE EXITING THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM ALONG THE MD COAST NEAR OXB
SW TO NEAR THE TRI CITIES AND CONTINUING TO DAN. THE RAIN ALONG
THE FRONT IS ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT AND WITH THE LIFT BEING
RELATIVELY WEAK...THE SHOWERS ARE LIGHT AND NOT WIDE IN COVERAGE.
BUT WITH THE FRONT NEARING THE COAST...THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE WILL
INCREASE AND THE MODELS SHOW THAT THE COLDER AIR ALOFT IS CATCHING
UP TO THE FRONT WHICH HELP TO INCREASE THE LIFT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR MORE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE
MORE SHOWERS IN COVERAGE AND ALSO IN QPF FOR SE VA AND ALSO ACROSS
NE NC THIS EVENING.

THE SATELLITE SHOWS THAT THE CLEARING LINE IS QUICKLY EXITING THE
MOUNTAINS AND SHOULD REACH TOWARD THE NW PIEDMONT AROUND 00Z. THIS
WILL BRING AN END TO THE SHOWERS AT THAT TIME. THIS CLEARING LINE
WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE PROGRESS SE TONIGHT AND BY 12...THE CHANCE
FOR RAIN WILL HAVE COME TO AN END. OVERALL...QPF SHOULD BE AROUND
0.25" - 0.40" IN THE SE AND AROUND 0.20" OR LESS ELSEWHERE.

FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE MOS NUMBERS AS THE
AREA TRANSITIONS AIRMASSES WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AND THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE
REGIONS WEATHER. THIS WILL LEAD TO MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS. WITH THE COOLING ALOFT BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ON THURSDAY WITH GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

THE BIG PART OF THE MID RANGE TIME FRAME IS A STRONG DIGGING
TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE THAT DIGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND CLOSES
OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE DIGGING TROUGH INDUCING
A STRONG SFC LOW TO FORM OFF THE CAROLINA/VA COAST. BUT FOR
DETAILS...THE 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW UNCERTAINTY AS THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING AND DIFFERENT
LOCATIONS FOR THE SFC LOW TO DEVELOP. RIGHT NOW HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH IS A MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THE NAM
TO THE SOUTH AND 00Z ECMWF WHICH WAS TO THE NORTH. THE 12Z ECMWF
CAME IN FURTHER SOUTH...BUT WITH THE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE
NORTHERN OUTER BANKS IS A FAVORED LOCATION SO LEAN THAT DIRECTION.
AS THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS...SHOULD SEE CLOUDS INCREASE FRIDAY
EVENING WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING LATE IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL SHIFT SE OVERNIGHT AS THE
SFC LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP FOLLOWED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE NE OVER
THE CWA. THIS NE FLOW WILL HELP TO BRING MORE MOISTURE IN AND HELP
CREATE A WET/COOL DAY ON SATURDAY. AS THE SFC LOW DEVELOPS AND
SLIDES OFF THE COAST...THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND THE RAIN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE THE LOW EXITS BY SUN MORNING. THE
WINDS..20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUST TO 40..MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A
WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE COAST FROM NORFOLK THROUGH THE OUTER BANKS
SAT AFTN/EVENING.

FOR TEMPS FRI NIGHT - SAT NIGHT...WITH THE COOL AIR ALOFT COMING
IN...WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE 40S FRI. SATURDAY WITH THE CLOUDY AND
DAMP CONDITIONS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S. GUIDANCE HOWEVER HAS
BEEN SHOWING A WARMING TREND OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS...BUT CURRENT
12Z MEX SHOWING READINGS IN THE 60S LOOKS UNREALISTIC. FOR SAT
NIGHT...HAVE KEPT READINGS IN THE 40S THINKING THAT CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOW TO CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY...BEFORE
SETTLING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HIGHS SUNDAY
SHOULD ONLY RISE TO 50-55 UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AS CAA CONTINUES.
THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOWS FALLING TO AROUND 30-32 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA (UPPER 20S
POSSIBLE IN FAVORED COLD SPOTS)...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES
(35-40) FOR FAR SE PORTIONS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE THE
FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS FALL ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. A SLOW MODERATING TREND IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM
55-60...WITH LOW/MID 60S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD REMAIN RATHER COOL TUESDAY MORNING RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID
30S INTERIOR TO LOW 40S FOR SE COASTAL LOCATIONS. LOWS SHOULD
MODERATE INTO THE LOW/MID 40S WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS
RATHER LOW WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH
THIS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACRS THE AREA AND OFF THE CST THIS AFTN
INTO THU MORNG. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF
SITES...BUT SOME MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AS THE
FRONT MOVES THRU. MAINTAINED JUST VCSH ATTM WITH CHCS FOR RAIN
NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH. HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W ON THU CREATING
VFR CONDITIONS THRU FRI AFTN. UA/SFC LO PRES WILL THEN AFFECT THE
REGION LATE FRI NGT INTO SAT NGT WITH PCPN AND LWR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MARINE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A WIND SHIFT TO NNW. UPSTREAM OBS SHOW
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20KT...WITH GUSTS OF 20-25KT BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND HIGH-RES MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS SURGE WILL PASS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LOWER BAY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AN SCA HAS BEEN RAISED FOR THE BAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS...BUT OVERALL THE DURATION WILL BE SHORT. LOW-END SCA
CONDITIONS WITH RESPECT TO SEAS ARE POSSIBLE OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER
BANKS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT AT THIS POINT THE
DURATION APPEARS TO BE TOO SHORT TO BUILD SEAS TO 5FT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY AND THEN DISSIPATES BY FRIDAY. A
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY STRONG CAA LATER SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. A NNW WIND
IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND A PERIOD OF
GALE CONDITIONS IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SCA CONDITIONS LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. IF RAPID CYCLOGENESIS EVENTUALLY OCCURS OFF THE VA COAST A
BRIEF PERIOD OF STORM FORCE GUSTS IS POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER BAY AND
OCEAN DURING THE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/SATURDAY EVENING TIMEFRAME.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THEN
SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS
NEAR TERM...ESS
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AJZ







000
FXUS61 KLWX 291954
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
354 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND OFFSHORE BY
THIS EVENING. ON THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. A
COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
AND ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING IN THE CAROLINAS WILL
INTERACT THIS WEEKEND OFFSHORE EAST OF THE REGION. ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK,
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CDFNT AND PRECIP SHIELD WORKING THEIR WAY ACRS THE REGION.  PRECIP
ACRS WRN SECTIONS HAS ALREADY ENDED AND BACK EDGE IS EVIDENT ON
RADAR.  PRECIP SHUD END ACRS DC/BALTIMORE METRO OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND EVERYWHERE LATER IN THE EVE.  THEN HIGH RES WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD IN.

GUID TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE AND WERE GENLY ACCEPTED.  BUMPED PREV
FCST UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES AS LATEST GUID WAS A BIT WARMER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A DRY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THU WITH HIGH PRES IN FIRM CONTROL.
EXPECT TEMPS TO BE A BIT COOLER ON NWLY FLOW.  AS THE HIGH BUILDS
IN, IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH JUST SOME SCT CU.  TEMPS WILL BE
BELOW NRML.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. DRY. NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF
STORM SYSTEMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND CAROLINAS. FAIRLY LOW
SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THIS PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: THE TRACK AND INTENSITY ALONG IF
ANY INTERACTION BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS APPROACHING THE REGION
HAS BEEN A STRUGGLE TO SAY THE LEAST FOR THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND
THE RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER THERE HAS
BEEN MORE CONSISTANCY OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST MOVES OUT TO SEA
GOING EAST OF CAPE COD. THEN THE LOW ACROSS OHIO VALLEY MOVES EAST
ALONG A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED TO NO INTERACTION BETWEEN THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS DIVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. THIS WOULD
BRING IN SOME RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY PERHAPS
MIXED WITH WET SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. WITH STEADIER PRECIPITATION
DYNAMICAL COOLING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD CHANGE RAIN OVER TO
SNOW AS WELL, STILL WAY TO EARLY TO HONE IN ON ANY POTENTIAL
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD THIS OPTION OCCUR. HOWEVER WE DID PUT IN SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF VA/WV AND MD.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH VERY WINDY NOW AND WE COULD EASILY
SEE SOME GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS.
TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT DOWN OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE STEADIEST
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. AREAS FROM DC TO BWI WILL LIKELY
SEE MORE INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND MORE OF A EAST FLOW OFF THE WATER
ALLOWING HIGH TO GET TO CLOSE TO 50 ON SATURDAY. MET, MAV GUIDANCE
SETS ALONG WITH THE ECMWF WERE INCORPORATED IN THESE PERIODS. WINDS
WILL SWITCH TO NORTHWESTERLY BY SUNDAY WITH STRONG CAA. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT WE MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
PRESENTED BY THE MET AND MAV AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE ON SUNDAY.


MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION SO
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT GIVE WAY TO WAA FROM
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
GRADUAL WARMUP IN THIS PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS THEN LIKELY TO PUSH
INTO THE REGION BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY HAVE INCLUDED A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT. WENT WARMER ON TUESDAY GIVEN THE
WAA AND 925 MB TEMPS APPROACHING 9C, GETTING THE REGION INTO THE
60`S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

NWS MOUNT HOLLY IS BACKING UP THIS OFFICE AND THEIR
TAFS THROUGH 20Z TODAY.

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...PREDOMINANT VFR CIGS CLEARING FROM
WSW TO ENE. SHOWERS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDS ENDING SHORTLY PER THE
TAFS.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH A LIGHT NW WIND.

THURSDAY...VFR WITH DIURNAL SC IN THE AFTN. LIGHT N TO NW WIND.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MAY BRING MVFR CEILINGS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
CDFNT AND RAIN APPROACHING FROM THE W.  GOOD CAA BEHIND THE FRONT,
BUT CURRENT THINKING IS WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH THIS SURGE SO WILL
OPT FOR AN MWS. HIGH PRES BUILD IN LATER TONIGHT INTO THU SO NO
ADDITIONAL MARINE HEADLINES WILL BE ANTICIPATED.

SEAS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE BY SATURDAY WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
SCA CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE COASTAL LOW ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
WFO STERLING WILL BE RESUMING NORMAL FORECASTING OPERATIONS LATER
TODAY. 44065 BUOY HAS RETURNED TO SVC. 44009 WIND OTS AND NO SERVICE DATE
FOR REPAIR AS YET.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES/ WFO MOUNT HOLLY
NEAR TERM...LN/ WFO MOUNT HOLLY
SHORT TERM...LN/ WFO MOUNT HOLLY
LONG TERM...GAINES/ WFO MOUNT HOLLY
AVIATION... DRAG/ WFO MOUINT HOLLY
MARINE...LN/WFO MOUNT HOLLY AND HTS/ADS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...GAINES/ WFO MOUNT HOLLY
EQUIPMENT...DRAG/GAINES WFO MOUNT HOLLY








000
FXUS61 KPHI 291951
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
351 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY BEFORE WEAKENING EARLY FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL
COMBINE WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY
WHILE STRENGTHENING. THIS DEEP LOW WILL THEN TRACK NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MOUNT HOLLY IS ALSO SERVICE BACKING UP STERLING THROUGH 4 PM TODAY.
YOU`LL SEE STERLING FORECAST PRODUCTS ISSUED BY NWS MOUNT HOLLY.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...BAND OF SHOWERS PROGRESSING ENEWD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. DRYING OCCURRING IN THE LOW LVLS
WITH THE PRIOR EARLY AFTN CFP LIMITS POTENTIAL RAINFALL. WNW WINDS
GUSTY TO 22 KT FOR AN HOUR OR SO JUST AFTER CFP IN NJ/DE.

TONIGHT...CLEARING FROM WSW TO ENE SUBSEQUENT TO THIS BAND OF
SHOWERS ENDING. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS. PATCHY FOG EXPECTED TOMORROW
MORNING IN SOME OF THE TYPICAL LOW LYING COUNTRYSIDE VALLEYS...LOW
LYING AREAS.

FCST BASIS: 50 50 BLENDED 12Z/29 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A NICE FALL DAY WITH LIGHT NW WINDS AND DIURNAL AFTN SC....PROBABLY
MOST PREVALENT NW PTN OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS JUST A BIT BELOW
NORMAL.

FCST BASIS: 50 50 BLENDED 12Z/29 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE WITH TEMPS RAISED
SLIGHTLY PER THE MILDER 12Z/29 ECMWF 2M TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE
REGION...SO A FAIR FCST IS EXPECTED FOR THESE PERIODS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL THU NIGHT WITH LOW RANGING FROM THE
MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH/WEST/PINE BARRENS...TO THE UPPER 30S
TO LOW 40S ELSEWHERE.

FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRI
NIGHT AND THEN COMBINES WITH A SECOND LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SAT. THIS LOW THEN TRACK NORTHEAST THRU SAT NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES
ARRIVING ACROSS THE AREA SAT. SCT SHOWERS FRI NIGHT WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA SAT WITH THE GREATEST POPS SAT/SAT NIGHT. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AT THE END SAT NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT. HIGHS SAT WILL
BE COLD WITH WIDESPREAD 40S OVER THE AREA. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S.

SUN AND SUN NIGHT... THE DEEP LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE AWAY FROM
THE AREA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
A COOL AND BREEZY DAY SUNDAY...SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY. HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT MOSTLY
IN THE 40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S FAR NORTH. WINDS GUSTING TO 20 TO 25
MPH MOSTLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.

MON THRU TUE...ANOTHER PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND CREST OVER THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC TUE MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL A BIT BELOW
NORMAL MON THEN NEAR NORMAL FOR TUE.

TUE NIGHT THRU WED...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WELL TO THE NORTH AND
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA
WED. WE HAVE USED WPC POPS/TEMPS FOR THESE PERIODS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS MOSTLY
IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR MOUNT HOLLY:

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...PREDOMINATELY VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON
AOA 3500 FT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IS POSSIBLE WITH
HEAVIER SHRA BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH LEFTOVER RAIN
KACY/KMIV AND SE DELAWARE ENDING BY 01Z/30. LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND.
FCSTG POSSIBLE MVFR FOG AT KRDG/KABE/KMIV AFTER 05Z.

THURSDAY...VFR WITH SCT CLOUDS AOA 4000 FT POSSIBLY BRIEFLY BKN IN
THE AFTN.  NW WIND WITH GUSTS UNDER 15 KT.

FOR STERLING: NWS MOUNT HOLLY IS BACKING UP THIS OFFICE AND THEIR
TAFS THROUGH 20Z TODAY.

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...PREDOMINANT VFR CIGS CLEARING FROM
WSW TO ENE. SHOWERS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDS ENDING SHORTLY, PER THE
TAFS.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH A LIGHT NW WIND.

THURSDAY...VFR WITH DIURNAL SC IN THE AFTN. LIGHT N TO NW WIND.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT...LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES WITH
OCNL SHOWERS. GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING SAT AND LASTING INTO SAT
NIGHT.

SUNDAY THRU MONDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
44065 HAS RETURNED TO SVC. 44009 WINDS OTS AND WE DONT KNOW A SERVICE
DATE FOR REPAIR YET.

NO HEADLINES THROUGH THURSDAY.

NW WIND BRIEFLY GUSTY TO 22 KT THIS EVENING SUBSEQUENT TO CFP OTRW
NW WIND 5 TO 15 KT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU FRI...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.
FRI NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...SCA CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT BUILDING TO GALES
SAT WHICH CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. ROUGH SURF AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
   WITH LOWER VSBYS.
MON...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MON NGT THRU WED...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SAT/SAT NIGHT...STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL DELIVER ELEVATED
WATER LEVELS THIS WEEKEND. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING MAY OCCUR DURING THE
HIGH TIDES SAT AND SAT NIGHT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
44065 BUOY HAS RETURNED TO SVC. 44009 WIND OTS AND NO SERVICE DATE
FOR REPAIR AS YET.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG 350
SHORT TERM...DRAG 350
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA 350
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 291931
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
331 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY BEFORE WEAKENING EARLY FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL
COMBINE WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY
WHILE STRENGTHENING. THIS DEEP LOW WILL THEN TRACK NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MOUNT HOLLY IS ALSO SERVICE BACKING UP STERLING THROUGH 4 PM TODAY.
YOU`LL SEE STERLING FORECAST PRODUCTS ISSUED BY NWS MOUNT HOLLY.

REST OF TODAY...BAND OF SHOWERS PROGRESSING ENEWD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AT THIS TIME. DRYING OCCURRING IN THE LOW LVLS WITH THE PRIOR
EARLY AFTN CFP LIMITS POTENTIAL RAINFALL. WNW WINDS GUSTY TO 22 KT
FOR AN HOUR OR SO JUST AFTER CFP IN NJ/DE.

TONIGHT...CLEARING FROM WSW TO ENE SUBSEQUENT TO THIS BAND OF
SHOWERS ENDING. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS. PATCHY FOG EXPECTED TOMORROW
MORNING IN SOME OF THE TYPICAL LOW LYING COUNTRYSIDE VALLEYS...LOW
LYING AREAS. 50 50 BLENDED 12Z/29 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A NICE FALL DAY WITH LIGHT NW WINDS AND DIURNAL AFTN SC....PROBABLY
MOST PREVALENT NW PTN OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS JUST A BIT BELOW
NORMAL. 50 50 BLENDED 12Z/29 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE RAISED SLIGHTLY
PER THE MILDER 12Z/29 ECMWF 2M TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE
REGION...SO A FAIR FCST IS EXPECTED FOR THESE PERIODS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL THU NIGHT WITH LOW RANGING FROM THE
MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH/WEST/PINE BARRENS...TO THE UPPER 30S
TO LOW 40S ELSEWHERE.

FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRI
NIGHT AND THEN COMBINES WITH A SECOND LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SAT. THIS LOW THEN TRACK NORTHEAST THRU SAT NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES
ARRIVING ACROSS THE AREA SAT. SCT SHOWERS FRI NIGHT WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA SAT WITH THE GREATEST POPS SAT/SAT NIGHT. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AT THE END SAT NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT. HIGHS SAT WILL
BE COLD WITH WIDESPREAD 40S OVER THE AREA. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S.

SUN AND SUN NIGHT... THE DEEP LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE AWAY FROM
THE AREA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
A COOL AND BREEZY DAY SUNDAY...SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY. HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT MOSTLY
IN THE 40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S FAR NORTH. WINDS GUSTING TO 20 TO 25
MPH MOSTLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.

MON THRU TUE...ANOTHER PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND CREST OVER THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC TUE MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL A BIT BELOW
NORMAL MON THEN NEAR NORMAL FOR TUE.

TUE NIGHT THRU WED...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WELL TO THE NORTH AND
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA
WED. WE HAVE USED WPC POPS/TEMPS FOR THESE PERIODS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS MOSTLY
IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR MOUNT HOLLY:

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...PREDOMINATELY VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON
AOA 3500 FT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IS POSSIBLE WITH
HEAVIER SHRA BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH LEFTOVER RAIN
KACY/KMIV AND SE DELAWARE ENDING BY 01Z/30. LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND.
FCSTG POSSIBLE MVFR FOG AT KRDG/KABE/KMIV AFTER 05Z.

FOR STERLING: NWS MOUNT HOLLY IS BACKING UP THIS OFFICE AND THEIR
TAFS THROUGH 20Z TODAY.

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...PREDOMINANT VFR CIGS CLEARING FROM
WSW TO ENE. SHOWERS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDS ENDING SHORTLY PER THE
TAFS.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH A LIGHT NW WIND.

THURSDAY...VFR WITH DIURNAL SC IN THE AFTN. LIGHT N TO NW WIND.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT...LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES WITH
OCNL SHOWERS. GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING SAT AND LASTING INTO SAT
NIGHT.

SUNDAY THRU MONDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
44065 HAS RETURNED TO SVC. 44009 WINDS OTS AND WE DONT KNOW A SERVICE
DATE FOR REPAIR YET.

NO HEADLINES THROUGH THURSDAY.

NW WIND BRIEFLY GUSTY TO 22 KT THIS EVENING SUBSEQUENT TO CFP OTRW
NW WIND 5 TO 15 KT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU FRI...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.
FRI NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...SCA CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT BUILDING TO GALES
SAT WHICH CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. ROUGH SURF AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
   WITH LOWER VSBYS.
MON...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MON NGT THRU WED...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SAT/SAT NIGHT...STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL DELIVER ELEVATED
WATER LEVELS THIS WEEKEND. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING MAY OCCUR DURING THE
HIGH TIDES SAT AND SAT NIGHT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
44065 BUOY HAS RETURNED TO SVC. 44009 WIND OTS AND NO SERVICE DATE
FOR REPAIR AS YET.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG 330P
SHORT TERM...DRAG 330P
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA 330P
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA 330P
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...330P







000
FXUS61 KPHI 291858
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
258 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY BEFORE WEAKENING EARLY FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL COMBINE WITH
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY WHILE
STRENGTHENING. THIS DEEP LOW WILL THEN TRACK NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MOUNT HOLLY IS ALSO SERVICE BACKING UP STERLING THROUGH 4 PM TODAY.
YOU`LL SEE STERLING FORECAST PRODUCTS ISSUED BY NWS MOUNT HOLLY.

1230 PM ESTF: LOWERED TEMPS AS A PROCESS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTN AFTER RAIN DEVELOPS. USED A 50 50 BLEND OF THE NEW 12Z/29
GFS/NAM MOS TEMPS. THERE STILL WILL BE ERRORS BUT TEMPS ARE
NOTABLY COOLER DURING MID AND LATE AFTN PER EXPECTED/MODELED RAIN.

EXPECTING A 2-4 HOUR WIDE BAND OF MEASURABLE SHOWERS. MAX AMT
.4 INCHES IN PWAT OF 1.1 INCHES...HEAVIEST NEAR I-95.

DID NOT INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDER POTENTIAL VCNTY FENWICK ISLAND DE
LATE TODAY BUT ITS MODELED.

THE CURRENT HOURLY TEMPS OVER E PA AND NE MD IN RAIN COOLING THE
AIR TEMP (WET BULBING) MAY STILL BE 2 DEGREES TOO WARM IN EASTERN
PA DURING MID LATE AFTN (NEAR 52 DEGREES INSTEAD OF THE HOURLY
MID 50S TEMPS AS POSTED AT 1230 PM).

DID NOTICE 1.5 MI MDT TO HEAVY RAIN AT IAD IN THE PAST HOUR.

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD FROM COASTAL NJ
AND DE AT 17Z. IT TRAILS INTO LOW PRES OVER SE VA WHICH IS A RESPONSE
TO PROCESSES ALOFT THAT WAS GENERATING THE BAND OF RAIN FROM
WESTERN VA INTO E PA NEWD.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY UNDER ONE THIRD INCH).
ISOLATED SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE TRAILING THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRACKS FROM VA
TO THE DELMARVA, LEADING TO AN ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIP OVER THE
SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. THE
BACK EDGE OF THE LINGERING SHOWERS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
SHIFTING THRU THE I-95 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS EVENING AND OFF THE NJ/DE
COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ADVECT COLDER AND
EVENTUALLY DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. SKIES WILL CLEAR NOT TOO LONG
AFTER PRECIP ENDS- DURING THE EVENING ACROSS EASTERN PA AND
NORTHWEST NJ AND OVERNIGHT FOR COASTAL AREAS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A 5-10 MPH WIND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY WITH CAA AIDING IN A MIXED NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER.
THEREFORE, WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE A MAV/MET BLEND FOR MIN
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE
REGION...SO A FAIR FCST IS EXPECTED FOR THESE PERIODS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL THU NIGHT WITH LOW RANGING FROM THE
MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH/WEST/PINE BARRENS...TO THE UPPER 30S
TO LOW 40S ELSEWHERE.

FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRI
NIGHT AND THEN COMBINES WITH A SECOND LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SAT. THIS LOW THEN TRACK NORTHEAST THRU SAT NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES
ARRIVING ACROSS THE AREA SAT. SCT SHOWERS FRI NIGHT WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA SAT WITH THE GREATEST POPS SAT/SAT NIGHT. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AT THE END SAT NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT. HIGHS SAT WILL
BE COLD WITH WIDESPREAD 40S OVER THE AREA. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S.

SUN AND SUN NIGHT... THE DEEP LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE AWAY FROM
THE AREA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
A COOL AND BREEZY DAY SUNDAY...SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY. HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT MOSTLY
IN THE 40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S FAR NORTH. WINDS GUSTING TO 20 TO 25
MPH MOSTLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.

MON THRU TUE...ANOTHER PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND CREST OVER THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC TUE MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL A BIT BELOW
NORMAL MON THEN NEAR NORMAL FOR TUE.

TUE NIGHT THRU WED...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WELL TO THE NORTH AND
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA
WED. WE HAVE USED WPC POPS/TEMPS FOR THESE PERIODS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS MOSTLY
IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR MOUNT HOLLY:

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...PREDOMINATELY VFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON AOA 3500 FT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IS
POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER SHRA BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND CONFIDENCE HAS
INCREASED SEEING THE 2500 FT DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND S NJ EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND ALSO SEEING THE BRIEF 1MI HEAVY RAIN MVFR CIG
AT KIAD SINCE 17Z. SHOWER BAND LASTS 2-4 HOURS ONCE IT STARTS.

LATEST HIGH RES SHORT TERM GUIDANCE AND THE 12Z NAM ARE SUGGESTING
SHOWERS MAY NOT ARRIVE KACY AND KMIV TIL AROUND 21-22Z AND MAY LINGER
THROUGH 01Z THIS EVENING.

LIGHT SHIFTING WIND TURNING W TO NW AND BRIEFLY GUSTING 22 KT (1
HOUR LESS) BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH LEFTOVER RAIN
KACY/KMIV AND SE DELAWARE ENDING BY 03Z/30. LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND.
FCSTG POSSIBLE MVFR FOG AT KRDG/KABE/KMIV AFTER 05Z.

FOR STERLING: NWS MOUNT HOLLY IS BACKING UP THIS OFFICE AND THEIR
TAFS THROUGH 20Z TODAY.

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...PREDOMINANT VFR CIGS. A 2-4 HOUR
WIDE BAND OF SHOWERS CROSSES THE AREA WITH BRIEF 1-3 MI RAIN AND
MVFR CIGS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...VFR CLEARING WITH A LIGHT NW WIND.


OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT...LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES WITH
OCNL SHOWERS. GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING SAT AND LASTING INTO SAT
NIGHT.

SUNDAY THRU MONDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
44065 HAS RETURNED TO SVC. 44009 WINDS OTS AND WE DONT KNOW A SERVICE
DATE FOR REPAIR YET.

NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT.

WIND WAS SHIFTING NW WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
NW WIND TONIGHT AT 10 TO 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU FRI...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.
FRI NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...SCA CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT BUILDING TO GALES
SAT WHICH CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. ROUGH SURF AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
   WITH LOWER VSBYS.
MON...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MON NGT THRU WED...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SAT/SAT NIGHT...STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL DELIVER ELEVATED
WATER LEVELS THIS WEEKEND. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING MAY OCCUR DURING THE
HIGH TIDES SAT AND SAT NIGHT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
SERVICE BACKUP FOR STERLING - LWX TODAY. HAVE LISTED THIS UNDER
EQUIPMENT...JUST IN CASE THIS SERVICE BACKUP MESSAGE IS MISSED IN
THE NEAR TERM AND AVIATION SECTION.

44065 BUOY HAS RETURNED TO SVC. 44009 WIND OTS AND NO SERVICE DATE
FOR REPAIR AS YET.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...O`HARA
EQUIPMENT...DRAG







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291844
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
244 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK GREAT LAKES DISTURBANCE TONIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A WK SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE GT LKS RGN TNGT WITH AN INCR
IN SC EXPD FOR MOST OF THE AREA. LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS WERE
MAINTAINED N OF I 80 WITH THIS FEATURE WITH SOME VRY LTD LK
ENHANCEMENT PSBL. NR AVG OVRNGT LOWS ARE EXPD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES IS EXPD TO BLD IN UNDER BROAD UPR TROFG THU. THE UPR
TROF IS EXPD TO DEEPEN BY FRI AS AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW AND CDFNT
ADVN ACRS THE RGN. THE DEEPENING TROF IS PROGGED TO DVLP INTO A
CLOSED LOW OVR THE OH VLY FRI NGT...MOVING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
BY LT SAT. MOISTURE AND OMEGA ON THE NRN SIDE OF THE LOW IS EXPD
TO KEEP PCPN ACRS THE RGN INTO SAT. CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND
SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE A RAIN/SNOW SHWR MIX BY FRI NGT INTO
SAT...OR EVEN A CHG OVR TO ALL SNW ESP IN THE RIDGES SE OF PIT.
SOME LGT ACCUMS ARE PSBL MAINLY IN THE COLDER HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS...THOUGH VRY LTL UPSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT IS EXPD WITH
N-NNE WNDS SAT. PCPN CHCS SHOULD BE DCRG LTR SAT AS THE UPR LOW
BEGINS TO EXIT OFF THE COAST.

TEMPS SHOULD AVG 5-10 DEG BLO SEASONAL LVLS LT THIS WK...AND ARND
15 DEG BLO SEASONAL LVLS SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WPC SUGGESTS FOLLOWING ENSEMBLE MEANS IN THIS ANOMALOUS PATTERN AND
SEE NO REASON TO DISAGREE.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING DEEP SYSTEM.  WITH THE NORTHEAST TROUGH HANGING AROUND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW
NORMAL.  SATURDAY NIGHT MAY BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON THUS FAR
WITH WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE 20S.  MODERATION CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS RIDGING DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN.  THE NEXT FRONT
MAY ARRIVE COME TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN SHOWER CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR WL BE PREDOMINATE TDA...BUT AN ADVNG UPR
DISTURBANCE/REINFORCING CDFNT WL INVIGORATE STRATOCU DVLPMNT
THROUGH THE AFTN...WITH GENL MVFR RESTRICTIONS TNGT AS COLD BNDRY
LYR FLOW VEERS TO THE NW. THE ASSOCIATED MID LVL THERMAL TROF
PROJECTIONS ARE COLDER IN THE LATEST MDL SOLNS...HENCE THE MIXING
LYR NR NRN PORTS LATE TNGT LKS MORE SUPPORTIVE FOR SOME SHWRS...SO
A VICINITY MENTION WAS INCLUDED FOR FKL AND DUJ IN THE AFTN TAF
PACKAGE.

IN ADDITION...WITH THE RELATIVE MOIST UPSLOPING FLOW OFF THE LAKES...IFR
CIG DVLPMNT WAS ALSO INCLUDED FOR THOSE SITES.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS DEEPENING LOW
PRES IS PROJECTED TO SHUNT A BROAD MSTR SWATH OVR THE UPR OH
REGION. ENSUING COLD ADVCTN WL THEN MAINTAIN STRATOCU POTENTIAL
UNTIL SFC HIGH STRENGTHENS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/15






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291808
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
208 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST THIS MORNING...THEN CROSSES
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION SATURDAY...AS A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SFC COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY ENTERING WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THIS MORNING WITH LOTS OF HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE CLOUDS ARE
THICKENING...BUT THE RADAR SHOWS THE SHOWER ACTIVITY COMING OUT OF
THE MOUNTAINS IS WEAKENING. BUT THE MODELS SHOW THAT THE LIFT WILL
REORGANIZE AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD SO HAVE INCREASED POPS TO
LIKELY LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THAT DOES NOT MEAN HEAVY
RAIN AS QPF WILL GENERALLY BE ONLY .10" -.20" WEST OF I-95 UP TO
0.50" TO THE EAST. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED THE TIMING A LITTLE AS THE
PCPN LOOKS TO BE MOVING SLOWER THAN THE MODELS...WHICH MAKES SENSE
WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAT IS SLIDING NE OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES
WHICH SHOULD RETARD THE EASTERN PUSH OF THE FRONT FOR A BIT UNTIL
THIS WAVE PASSES BETWEEN 00Z AND 6Z.

FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SE TO
LOWER VALUES TO AROUND 80 BASED ON THE THICKER CIRRUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CDFNT IS SLO TO PUSH TO THE ESE THROUGH THIS EVE. XPCG DECENT
COVERAGE OF PCPN (50-60% POPS) OVR ESE VA/NE NC THIS EVE (UNTIL
ABT 04-06Z/30)...ALONG W/ CONTD HI PERCENTAGE OF CLDNS. CLDNS TO
DCRS AND LO CAA TNGT IN WAKE OF FNT AS IT PUSHES OFF THE CST. LO
TEMPS RANGE FM THE L/M40S NW TO THE L/M50S OVR SE CSTL AREAS.

WEAK H5 RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW THU AND THU
NIGHT. DRY AND COOLER. HI TEMPS THU IN THE L/M60S. LO TEMPS THU
NGT FM THE M/U30S NW TO ARND 50F OVR SE CSTL AREAS.

RGN TO BE INBETWEEN FNTL BNDRY (WELL) OFF THE CST AND STRONG UPR
LVL SYS DIVING SE FM THE LAKES/OH VLY ON FRI. STARTING OUT MNLY
SKC THEN XCPG VRB CLDS TO PSNY BY THE AFTN. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S
NW TO M60S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALL MDLS NOW COMING INTO LINE WRT TO STRONG UPR LVL LO PRES DIVING
(WELL) S THROUGH THE MDATLC STATES FM (LT) FRI NGT THROUGH SAT. AT
THE SAME TIME...SFC LO PRES BECOMING MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP E OF
THE FA (ALG LINGERING FNTL BNDRY). WILL SPREAD INCRSG CLDNS OVR
THE FA FRI NGT W/ POPS MNLY AOB 20%. BY SAT...CAA AND STRONG UVM
TO CROSS THE FA RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD CLDNS AND (BY AFTN)...POPS
INCRSG TO 40-60% E...TO 20-30 W. ALSO...NNE WNDS PTNTLLY INCRS TO
20-30 MPH...AGN MNLY ERN PORTION.

IN WAKE OF LO PRES EXITING THE CST AND ON TO THE ENE SAT NGT INTO
SUN...GUSTY NNW WNDS USHER IN COLDEST AIRMASS OF FALL SO FAR. LO
TEMPS (TO NR FREEZING?) OVR PORTIONS OF FA (ESP WRN 1/3RD) WILL BE
DEPENDENT OF LINGERING WNDS AND/OR CLDNS. MEANWHILE...CLDS/PCPN
XPCD TO BE SLO IN EXITING ERN PORTIONS (SAT NGT).

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION DURING SUNDAY...BEFORE
SETTLING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGHS
SUNDAY SHOULD ONLY RISE TO 50-55F UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AS CAA
CONTINUES. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS FALLING TO AROUND/BLO 32F FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
AWAY FM THE BAY/CST...WITH AGAIN SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES (35-40F)
CLOSER TO THE CST. A SLOW MODERATING TREND IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM 55-60...WITH 60-65 BY TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
REMAIN CHILLY AND RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACRS THE AREA AND OFF THE CST THIS AFTN
INTO THU MORNG. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF
SITES...BUT SOME MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AS THE
FRONT MOVES THRU. MAINTAINED JUST VCSH ATTM WITH CHCS FOR RAIN
NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH. HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W ON THU CREATING
VFR CONDITIONS THRU FRI AFTN. UA/SFC LO PRES WILL THEN AFFECT THE
REGION LATE FRI NGT INTO SAT NGT WITH PCPN AND LWR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW AVGG 10-15 KT CONTINUES THIS MORNG WITH HI PRES OFFSHORE
AND A COLD FRNT APPROACHING FM THE W. THE FRNT WILL CROSS THE WTRS
THIS AFTN AND EVENG. A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINDS CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA
IS EXPECTED POST FRNTAL...BUT WINDS SHOULD MAINLY STAY ~15 KT WITH
WEAK CAA. EXPECT 2-3 FT WAVES OVR THE BAY AND 3-4 FT SEAS OVR CSTL
WTRS. BROAD SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W ON THU...DISSIPATING OVR
THE MID ATLANTIC ON FRI. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH
N WINDS GENERALLY 10-15 KT AND 2-4 FT SEAS.

A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY STRONG CAA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS
CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. SCA CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR A PERIOD OF LOW-END GALE
CONDITIONS LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THEN
SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ESS
SHORT TERM...ALB/MPR
LONG TERM...AJZ/ALB
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAS







000
FXUS61 KPHI 291751
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
151 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TRAILS
INTO WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA. THE COLD FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY AFFECT
THE AREA THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY, BEFORE
COMBINING WITH A DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOW OFFSHORE
OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE WELL
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD BACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST MONDAY, THEN OFFSHORE TUESDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOUNT HOLLY IS ALSO SERVICE BACKING UP STERLING THROUGH 4 PM TODAY.
YOU`LL SEE STERLING FORECAST PRODUCTS ISSUED BY NWS MOUNT HOLLY.

1230 PM ESTF: LOWERED TEMPS AS A PROCESS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTN AFTER RAIN DEVELOPS. USED A 50 50 BLEND OF THE NEW 12Z/29
GFS/NAM MOS TEMPS. THERE STILL WILL BE ERRORS BUT TEMPS ARE
NOTABLY COOLER DURING MID AND LATE AFTN PER EXPECTED/MODELED RAIN.

EXPECTING A 2-4 HOUR WIDE BAND OF MEASURABLE SHOWERS. MAX AMT
.4 INCHES IN PWAT OF 1.1 INCHES...HEAVIEST NEAR I-95.

DID NOT INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDER POTENTIAL VCNTY FENWICK ISLAND DE
LATE TODAY BUT ITS MODELED.

THE CURRENT HOURLY TEMPS OVER E PA AND NE MD IN RAIN COOLING THE
AIR TEMP (WET BULBING) MAY STILL BE 2 DEGREES TOO WARM IN EASTERN
PA DURING MID LATE AFTN (NEAR 52 DEGREES INSTEAD OF THE HOURLY
MID 50S TEMPS AS POSTED AT 1230 PM).

DID NOTICE 1.5 MI MDT TO HEAVY RAIN AT IAD IN THE PAST HOUR.

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD FROM COASTAL NJ
AND DE AT 17Z. IT TRAILS INTO LOW PRES OVER SE VA WHICH IS A RESPONSE
TO PROCESSES ALOFT THAT WAS GENERATING THE BAND OF RAIN FROM
WESTERN VA INTO E PA NEWD.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY UNDER ONE THIRD INCH).
ISOLATED SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE TRAILING THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRACKS FROM VA
TO THE DELMARVA, LEADING TO AN ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIP OVER THE
SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. THE
BACK EDGE OF THE LINGERING SHOWERS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
SHIFTING THRU THE I-95 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS EVENING AND OFF THE NJ/DE
COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ADVECT COLDER AND
EVENTUALLY DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. SKIES WILL CLEAR NOT TOO LONG
AFTER PRECIP ENDS- DURING THE EVENING ACROSS EASTERN PA AND
NORTHWEST NJ AND OVERNIGHT FOR COASTAL AREAS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A 5-10 MPH WIND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY WITH CAA AIDING IN A MIXED NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER.
THEREFORE, WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE A MAV/MET BLEND FOR MIN
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BEFORE A DECLINE IN THE WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

ON FRIDAY, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION, AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA WHILE A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS TO OUR SOUTH. WE
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH, IF ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY AS THE
PRECIPITATION TIED TO THE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST UNDERNEATH THE MID/UPPER LOW/TROUGH. AS WE GO INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT, THE MID/UPPER LOW WILL SWING TO OUR SOUTH, WHILE THE
SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN GETTING ABSORBED BY THE COASTAL LOW. THIS
WILL ALLOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA AS
THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING. IT LOOKS LIKE
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT STARTS OUT FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY A
COLD RAIN AS MODELS NOW KEEP 925/850 MB TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING,
ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR A MIXTURE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN AREAS.

THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING OFFSHORE OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST SATURDAY, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE LOW TO STRENGTHEN AND
WRAP UP MORE. THE GFS KEEPS THE PRECIP CLOSE TO THE SURFACE AND
MID-LEVEL LOW AND MOSTLY OFFSHORE, BUT THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP
PRECIP ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND EXTEND IT PRETTY FAR TO OUR
NORTHWEST, SO WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. THE MODELS DO SHOW THE PRECIP MOVING TO OUR NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE AND MID/UPPER LOW PULL TO OUR
NORTHEAST, SO WE`LL HAVE DECREASING POPS OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS
KEEP THE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY, SO THE BEST CHANCE FOR A MIX OR COMPLETE
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IF
THERE IS STILL ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION, MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA.

WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. WINDS LOOK TO GUST BETWEEN 30-40 MPH, WITH
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, BUT COLD AND BLUSTERY AS A STIFF
NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WINDS
COULD CONTINUE TO GUST 30-40 MPH ACROSS THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY AND NOSE ITS
WAY INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY, THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST, WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS OF NOW, THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY IS FOR
DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH IF THE WARM FRONT
PASSES CLOSE ENOUGH, A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR MOUNT HOLLY:

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...PREDOMINATELY VFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON AOA 3500 FT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IS
POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER SHRA BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND CONFIDENCE HAS
INCREASED SEEING THE 2500 FT DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND S NJ EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND ALSO SEEING THE BRIEF 1MI HEAVY RAIN MVFR CIG
AT KIAD SINCE 17Z. SHOWER BAND LASTS 2-4 HOURS ONCE IT STARTS.

LATEST HIGH RES SHORT TERM GUIDANCE AND THE 12Z NAM ARE SUGGESTING
SHOWERS MAY NOT ARRIVE KACY AND KMIV TIL AROUND 21-22Z AND MAY LINGER
THROUGH 01Z THIS EVENING.

LIGHT SHIFTING WIND TURNING W TO NW AND BRIEFLY GUSTING 22 KT (1
HOUR LESS) BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH LEFTOVER RAIN
KACY/KMIV AND SE DELAWARE ENDING BY 03Z/30. LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND.
FCSTG POSSIBLE MVFR FOG AT KRDG/KABE/KMIV AFTER 05Z.

FOR STERLING: NWS MOUNT HOLLY IS BACKING UP THIS OFFICE AND THEIR
TAFS THROUGH 20Z TODAY.

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...PREDOMINANT VFR CIGS. A 2-4 HOUR
WIDE BAND OF SHOWERS CROSSES THE AREA WITH BRIEF 1-3 MI RAIN AND
MVFR CIGS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...VFR CLEARING WITH A LIGHT NW WIND.


OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...LOWER END VFR OR UPPER END MVFR WITH
CIGS 2,500-3,500 EXPECTED. LOWER VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWEST
NEW JERSEY. GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
25-30 KNOTS, POSSIBLY HIGHER NEAR THE COAST.

SUNDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
44065 HAS RETURNED TO SVC. 44009 WINDS OTS AND WE DONT KNOW A SERVICE
DATE FOR REPAIR YET.

NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT.

WIND WAS SHIFTING NW WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
NW WIND TONIGHT AT 10 TO 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS A SEAS WILL BE INCREASING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...INCREASING WINDS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A COASTAL LOW STRENGTHENS. GALE FORCE WINDS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY.

SUNDAY...GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE EARLY, BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
SERVICE BACKUP FOR STERLING - LWX TODAY. HAVE LISTED THIS UNDER
EQUIPMENT...JUST IN CASE THIS SERVICE BACKUP MESSAGE IS MISSED IN
THE NEAR TERM AND AVIATION SECTION.

44065 BUOY HAS RETURNED TO SVC. 44009 WIND OTS AND NO SERVICE DATE
FOR REPAIR AS YET.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG 150
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 150
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON 150
EQUIPMENT...150







000
FXUS61 KPHI 291639
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1239 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE AT NOON WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST THIS EVENING. THE FRONT TRAILS INTO WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER
SE VA. THE COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY, BEFORE COMBINING WITH A DEVELOPING
AND STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOW OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY,
THEN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST
MONDAY, THEN OFFSHORE TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOUNT HOLLY IS ALSO SERVICE BACKING UP STERLING THROUGH 4 PM TODAY.
YOU`LL SEE STERLING FORECAST PRODUCTS ISSUED BY NWS MOUNT HOLLY.

1230 PM ESTF: LOWERED TEMPS AS A PROCESS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTN AFTER RAIN DEVELOPS. USED A 50 50 BLEND OF THE NEW 12Z/29
GFS/NAM MOS TEMPS. THERE STILL WILL BE ERRORS BUT TEMPS ARE
NOTABLY COOLER DURING MID AND LATE AFTN PER EXPECTED/MODELED RAIN.

EXPECTING A 2-4 HOUR WIDE BAND OF MEASURABLE SHOWERS. MAX AMT
.4 INCHES IN PWAT OF 1.1 INCHES...HEAVIEST NEAR I-95.

DID NOT INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDER POTENTIAL VCNTY FENWICK ISLAND DE
LATE TODAY BUT ITS MODELED.

THE CURRENT HOURLY TEMPS OVER E PA AND NE MD IN RAIN COOLING THE
AIR TEMP (WET BULBING) MAY STILL BE 2 DEGREES TOO WARM IN EASTERN
PA DURING MID LATE AFTN (NEAR 52 DEGREES INSTEAD OF THE HOURLY
MID 50S TEMPS AS POSTED AT 1230 PM).

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD FROM EASTERN NJ
AT 17Z. IT TRAILS INTO LOW PRES OVER SE VA WHICH IS A RESPONSE TO
PROCESSES ALOFT THAT WAS GENERATING THE BAND OF RAIN FROM WESTERN
VA INTO E PA NEWD.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY UNDER ONE THIRD INCH).
ISOLATED SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE TRAILING THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRACKS FROM VA
TO THE DELMARVA, LEADING TO AN ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIP OVER THE
SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. THE
BACK EDGE OF THE LINGERING SHOWERS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
SHIFTING THRU THE I-95 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS EVENING AND OFF THE NJ/DE
COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ADVECT COLDER AND
EVENTUALLY DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. SKIES WILL CLEAR NOT TOO LONG
AFTER PRECIP ENDS- DURING THE EVENING ACROSS EASTERN PA AND
NORTHWEST NJ AND OVERNIGHT FOR COASTAL AREAS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A 5-10 MPH WIND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY WITH CAA AIDING IN A MIXED NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER.
THEREFORE, WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE A MAV/MET BLEND FOR MIN
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BEFORE A DECLINE IN THE WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

ON FRIDAY, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION, AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA WHILE A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS TO OUR SOUTH. WE
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH, IF ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY AS THE
PRECIPITATION TIED TO THE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST UNDERNEATH THE MID/UPPER LOW/TROUGH. AS WE GO INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT, THE MID/UPPER LOW WILL SWING TO OUR SOUTH, WHILE THE
SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN GETTING ABSORBED BY THE COASTAL LOW. THIS
WILL ALLOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA AS
THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING. IT LOOKS LIKE
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT STARTS OUT FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY A
COLD RAIN AS MODELS NOW KEEP 925/850 MB TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING,
ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR A MIXTURE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN AREAS.

THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING OFFSHORE OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST SATURDAY, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE LOW TO STRENGTHEN AND
WRAP UP MORE. THE GFS KEEPS THE PRECIP CLOSE TO THE SURFACE AND
MID-LEVEL LOW AND MOSTLY OFFSHORE, BUT THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP
PRECIP ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND EXTEND IT PRETTY FAR TO OUR
NORTHWEST, SO WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. THE MODELS DO SHOW THE PRECIP MOVING TO OUR NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE AND MID/UPPER LOW PULL TO OUR
NORTHEAST, SO WE`LL HAVE DECREASING POPS OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS
KEEP THE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY, SO THE BEST CHANCE FOR A MIX OR COMPLETE
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IF
THERE IS STILL ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION, MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA.

WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. WINDS LOOK TO GUST BETWEEN 30-40 MPH, WITH
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, BUT COLD AND BLUSTERY AS A STIFF
NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WINDS
COULD CONTINUE TO GUST 30-40 MPH ACROSS THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY AND NOSE ITS
WAY INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY, THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST, WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS OF NOW, THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY IS FOR
DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH IF THE WARM FRONT
PASSES CLOSE ENOUGH, A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR MOUNT HOLLY:

THIS AFTERNOON...PREDOMINATELY VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AOA 3500
FT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER SHRA
BEHIND A COLD FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CONDS IS LOW AT THIS
TIME. SHOWER BAND LASTS 2-4 HOURS ONCE IT STARTS.

LATEST HIGH RES SHORT TERM GUIDANCE AND THE 12Z NAM ARE SUGGESTING
SHOWERS MAY NOT ARRIVE KACY AND KMIV TIL AROUND 21Z AND MAY LINGER
THROUGH 01Z THIS EVENING.

LIGHT SHIFTING WIND TURNING W TO NW AND BRIEFLY GUSTING 20 KT (1
HOUR LESS) BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH LEFTOVER RAIN
KACY/KMIV AND SE DELAWARE ENDING BY 03Z/30. LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND.

FOR STERLING: NWS MOUNT HOLLY IS BACKING UP THIS OFFICE AND THEIR
TAFS THROUGH 20Z TODAY.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CIGS. A 2-4 HOUR WIDE BAND OF SHOWERS
CROSSES THE AREA. BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN A HEAVIER SHOWER.

TONIGHT...CLEARING WITH A LIGHT NW WIND.


OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...LOWER END VFR OR UPPER END MVFR WITH
CIGS 2,500-3,500 EXPECTED. LOWER VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWEST
NEW JERSEY. GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
25-30 KNOTS, POSSIBLY HIGHER NEAR THE COAST.

SUNDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
44065 HAS RETURNED TO SVC. 44009 WINDS OTS AND WE DONT KNOW A
SERVICE DATE YET.

NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT.

SW WIND 10-15 KT SHIFTING WNW BY MID AFTERNOON WITH SCT GUSTS TO 20
KT. NW WIND TONIGHT AT 10 TO 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS A SEAS WILL BE INCREASING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...INCREASING WINDS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A COASTAL LOW STRENGTHENS. GALE FORCE WINDS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY.

SUNDAY...GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE EARLY, BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
SERVICE BACKUP FOR STERLING - LWX TODAY. HAVE LISTED THIS UNDER
EQUIPMENT...JUST IN CASE THIS SERVICE BACKUP MESSAGE IS MISSED IN
THE NEAR TERM AND AVIATION SECTION.

44009 BUOY HAS RETURNED TO SVC. 44009 WIND OTS AND NO SERVICE DATE
YET.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG 1239
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 1239
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON 1239
EQUIPMENT...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 291603
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1203 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY,
BEFORE COMBINING WITH A DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOW
OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE WELL
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD BACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST MONDAY, THEN OFFSHORE TUESDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOUNT HOLLY IS ALSO SERVICE BACKING UP STERLING THROUGH 4 PM TODAY.
YOU`LL SEE STERLING FORECAST PRODUCTS ISSUED BY NWS MOUNT HOLLY.

1152 AM ESTF: INCREASED SHOWER PROB THIS AFTERNOON BY 30-40 PCT
PER THE RADAR...HRRR...12Z NAM/12Z GFS QPF FCST AS WELL AS WPC
QPF. EXPECTING A 2-4 HOUR WIDE BAND OF MEASURABLE SHOWERS. MAX AMT
.4 INCHES IN PWAT OF 1.1 INCHES...HEAVIEST NEAR I-95.

DID NOT INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDER POTENTIAL VCNTY FENWICK ISLAND DE
LATE TODAY BUT ITS MODELED.

THE CURRENT HOURLY TEMPS OVER E PA AND NE MD IN RAIN COOLING THE
AIR TEMP (WET BULBING) MAY BE 5 DEGREES TOO WARM IN EASTERN PA
DURING MID AFTN (NEAR 52 DEGREES INSTEAD OF THE HOURLY UPPER 50S-
NEAR 60 TEMPS AS POSTED AT 930AM). WE MAY LOWER THOSE MID AFTN
TEMPS IN THE 1230 PM ESTF.

A COLD FRONT COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THRU
EASTERN PA THIS MORNING AND OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS, THE TREND WAS TO
SLOW DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS AS THE SEPARATION DISTANCE
BETWEEN THE FRONT AND POST-FRONTAL LIFT FROM THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
GROWS. MADE NOTABLE CHANGES TO THE POP/WX GRIDS TO TAKE THE DELAY
INTO ACCOUNT. SHOWERS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD AND RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY UNDER ONE THIRD INCH). ISOLATED
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE TRAILING THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRACKS FROM VA TO
THE DELMARVA, LEADING TO AN ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIP OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. THE
BACK EDGE OF THE LINGERING SHOWERS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
SHIFTING THRU THE I-95 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS EVENING AND OFF THE NJ/DE
COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ADVECT COLDER AND
EVENTUALLY DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. SKIES WILL CLEAR NOT TOO LONG
AFTER PRECIP ENDS- DURING THE EVENING ACROSS EASTERN PA AND
NORTHWEST NJ AND OVERNIGHT FOR COASTAL AREAS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A 5-10 MPH WIND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY WITH CAA AIDING IN A MIXED NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER.
THEREFORE, WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE A MAV/MET BLEND FOR MIN
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BEFORE A DECLINE IN THE WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

ON FRIDAY, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION, AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA WHILE A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS TO OUR SOUTH. WE
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH, IF ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY AS THE
PRECIPITATION TIED TO THE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST UNDERNEATH THE MID/UPPER LOW/TROUGH. AS WE GO INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT, THE MID/UPPER LOW WILL SWING TO OUR SOUTH, WHILE THE
SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN GETTING ABSORBED BY THE COASTAL LOW. THIS
WILL ALLOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA AS
THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING. IT LOOKS LIKE
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT STARTS OUT FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY A
COLD RAIN AS MODELS NOW KEEP 925/850 MB TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING,
ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR A MIXTURE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN AREAS.

THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING OFFSHORE OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST SATURDAY, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE LOW TO STRENGTHEN AND
WRAP UP MORE. THE GFS KEEPS THE PRECIP CLOSE TO THE SURFACE AND
MID-LEVEL LOW AND MOSTLY OFFSHORE, BUT THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP
PRECIP ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND EXTEND IT PRETTY FAR TO OUR
NORTHWEST, SO WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. THE MODELS DO SHOW THE PRECIP MOVING TO OUR NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE AND MID/UPPER LOW PULL TO OUR
NORTHEAST, SO WE`LL HAVE DECREASING POPS OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS
KEEP THE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY, SO THE BEST CHANCE FOR A MIX OR COMPLETE
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IF
THERE IS STILL ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION, MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA.

WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. WINDS LOOK TO GUST BETWEEN 30-40 MPH, WITH
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, BUT COLD AND BLUSTERY AS A STIFF
NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WINDS
COULD CONTINUE TO GUST 30-40 MPH ACROSS THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY AND NOSE ITS
WAY INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY, THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST, WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS OF NOW, THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY IS FOR
DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH IF THE WARM FRONT
PASSES CLOSE ENOUGH, A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR MOUNT HOLLY:

THIS AFTERNOON...PREDOMINATELY VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AOA 5000
FT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER SHRA
BEHIND A COLD FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CONDS IS LOW AT THIS
TIME. SHOWER BAND LASTS 2-4 HOURS ONCE IT STARTS.

LATEST HIGH RES SHORT TERM GUIDANCE AND THE 12Z NAM ARE SUGGESTING
SHOWERS MAY NOT ARRIVE KACY AND KMIV TIL AROUND 21Z AND MAY LINGER
THROUGH 01Z THIS EVENING.

LIGHT SHIFTING WIND TURNING W TO NW AND BRIEFLY GUSTING 20 KT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH LEFTOVER RAIN
KACY/KMIV AND SE DELAWARE ENDING BY 03Z/30. LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND.

FOR STERLING: NWS MOUNT HOLLY IS BACKING UP THIS OFFICE AND THEIR
TAFS THROUGH 20Z TODAY.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CIGS. A 2-4 HOUR WIDE BAND OF SHOWERS
CROSSES THE AREA. BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN A HEAVIER SHOWER.

TONIGHT...CLEARING WITH A LIGHT NW WIND.


OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...LOWER END VFR OR UPPER END MVFR WITH
CIGS 2,500-3,500 EXPECTED. LOWER VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWEST
NEW JERSEY. GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
25-30 KNOTS, POSSIBLY HIGHER NEAR THE COAST.

SUNDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
44065 HAS RETURNED TO SVC. 44009 WINDS OTS AND WE DONT KNOW A
SERVICE DATE YET.

NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT.

SW WIND 10-15 KT SHIFTING WNW LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH A GUST TO
20 KT POSSIBLE. NW WIND TONIGHT AT 10 TO 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS A SEAS WILL BE INCREASING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...INCREASING WINDS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A COASTAL LOW STRENGTHENS. GALE FORCE WINDS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY.

SUNDAY...GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE EARLY, BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
SERVICE BACKUP FOR STERLING - LWX TODAY. HAVE LISTED THIS UNDER
EQUIPMENT...JUST IN CASE THIS SERVICE BACKUP MESSAGE IS MISSED IN
THE NEAR TERM AND AVIATION SECTION.

44009 BUOY HAS RETURNED TO SVC. 44009 WIND OTS AND NO SERVICE DATE
YET.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG 1202P
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 1202 P
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON
EQUIPMENT...1202P







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291516
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1116 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST THIS MORNING...THEN CROSSES
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION SATURDAY...AS A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SFC COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY ENTERING WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THIS MORNING WITH LOTS OF HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE CLOUDS ARE
THICKENING...BUT THE RADAR SHOWS THE SHOWER ACTIVITY COMING OUT OF
THE MOUNTAINS IS WEAKENING. BUT THE MODELS SHOW THAT THE LIFT WILL
REORGANIZE AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD SO HAVE INCREASED POPS TO
LIKELY LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THAT DOES NOT MEAN HEAVY
RAIN AS QPF WILL GENERALLY BE ONLY .10" -.20" WEST OF I-95 UP TO
0.50" TO THE EAST. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED THE TIMING A LITTLE AS THE
PCPN LOOKS TO BE MOVING SLOWER THAN THE MODELS...WHICH MAKES SENSE
WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAT IS SLIDING NE OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES
WHICH SHOULD RETARD THE EASTERN PUSH OF THE FRONT FOR A BIT UNTIL
THIS WAVE PASSES BETWEEN 00Z AND 6Z.

FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SE TO
LOWER VALUES TO AROUND 80 BASED ON THE THICKER CIRRUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CDFNT IS SLO TO PUSH TO THE ESE THROUGH THIS EVE. XPCG DECENT
COVERAGE OF PCPN (50-60% POPS) OVR ESE VA/NE NC THIS EVE (UNTIL
ABT 04-06Z/30)...ALONG W/ CONTD HI PERCENTAGE OF CLDNS. CLDNS TO
DCRS AND LO CAA TNGT IN WAKE OF FNT AS IT PUSHES OFF THE CST. LO
TEMPS RANGE FM THE L/M40S NW TO THE L/M50S OVR SE CSTL AREAS.

WEAK H5 RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW THU AND THU
NIGHT. DRY AND COOLER. HI TEMPS THU IN THE L/M60S. LO TEMPS THU
NGT FM THE M/U30S NW TO ARND 50F OVR SE CSTL AREAS.

RGN TO BE INBETWEEN FNTL BNDRY (WELL) OFF THE CST AND STRONG UPR
LVL SYS DIVING SE FM THE LAKES/OH VLY ON FRI. STARTING OUT MNLY
SKC THEN XCPG VRB CLDS TO PSNY BY THE AFTN. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S
NW TO M60S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALL MDLS NOW COMING INTO LINE WRT TO STRONG UPR LVL LO PRES DIVING
(WELL) S THROUGH THE MDATLC STATES FM (LT) FRI NGT THROUGH SAT. AT
THE SAME TIME...SFC LO PRES BECOMING MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP E OF
THE FA (ALG LINGERING FNTL BNDRY). WILL SPREAD INCRSG CLDNS OVR
THE FA FRI NGT W/ POPS MNLY AOB 20%. BY SAT...CAA AND STRONG UVM
TO CROSS THE FA RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD CLDNS AND (BY AFTN)...POPS
INCRSG TO 40-60% E...TO 20-30 W. ALSO...NNE WNDS PTNTLLY INCRS TO
20-30 MPH...AGN MNLY ERN PORTION.

IN WAKE OF LO PRES EXITING THE CST AND ON TO THE ENE SAT NGT INTO
SUN...GUSTY NNW WNDS USHER IN COLDEST AIRMASS OF FALL SO FAR. LO
TEMPS (TO NR FREEZING?) OVR PORTIONS OF FA (ESP WRN 1/3RD) WILL BE
DEPENDENT OF LINGERING WNDS AND/OR CLDNS. MEANWHILE...CLDS/PCPN
XPCD TO BE SLO IN EXITING ERN PORTIONS (SAT NGT).

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION DURING SUNDAY...BEFORE
SETTLING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGHS
SUNDAY SHOULD ONLY RISE TO 50-55F UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AS CAA
CONTINUES. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS FALLING TO AROUND/BLO 32F FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
AWAY FM THE BAY/CST...WITH AGAIN SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES (35-40F)
CLOSER TO THE CST. A SLOW MODERATING TREND IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM 55-60...WITH 60-65 BY TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
REMAIN CHILLY AND RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY WITH S-SW WINDS
GENERALLY REMAINING AROUND 10 KT OR LESS. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. INCLUDED
JUST VCSH ATTM WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON THU CREATING VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW AVGG 10-15 KT CONTINUES THIS MORNG WITH HI PRES OFFSHORE
AND A COLD FRNT APPROACHING FM THE W. THE FRNT WILL CROSS THE WTRS
THIS AFTN AND EVENG. A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINDS CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA
IS EXPECTED POST FRNTAL...BUT WINDS SHOULD MAINLY STAY ~15 KT WITH
WEAK CAA. EXPECT 2-3 FT WAVES OVR THE BAY AND 3-4 FT SEAS OVR CSTL
WTRS. BROAD SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W ON THU...DISSIPATING OVR
THE MID ATLANTIC ON FRI. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH
N WINDS GENERALLY 10-15 KT AND 2-4 FT SEAS.

A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY STRONG CAA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS
CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. SCA CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR A PERIOD OF LOW-END GALE
CONDITIONS LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THEN
SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ESS
SHORT TERM...ALB/MPR
LONG TERM...AJZ/ALB
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291451
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1051 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK GREAT LAKES DISTURBANCE TONIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RMNG POST FRONTAL SHWRS SE OF PIT SHOULD BY ERLY AFTN. OTRW EXP A
GRDL DCR IN CLD COVER ERLY THIS AFTN...THOUGH SC IS EXPD TO DVLP
WITH COOL AIR ALOFT. A WK SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE GT LKS
RGN TNGT WITH AN INCR IN SC. LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS WERE MAINTAINED N
OF I 80 WITH THIS FEATURE WITH SOME VRY LTD LK ENHANCEMENT PSBL.
NR SEASONAL AVG TEMPS ARE EXPD THRU TNGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES IS EXPD TO BLD IN UNDER BROAD UPR TROFG THU. THE UPR
TROF IS EXPD TO DEEPEN BY FRI INTO THE WKEND AS AN ASSOCIATED SFC
LOW AND CDFNT ADVN ACRS THE RGN. THIS WL BRING INCRG SHWR CHCS
FRI. THE DEEPENING TROF AND MOISTURE SWATH ACRS THE AREA IS EXPD
TO ALLOW PCPN TO CONT FRI NGT INTO SAT AS THE SFC LOW SHIFTS EWD.
COLD ADVCTN BEHIND THE LOW COULD ALLOW FOR A RAIN/SNOW SHWR
MIX...OR A CHG OVR TO ALL SNW ESP IN THE RIDGES SE OF PIT.
CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND SOUNDING PROFILES ARE MARGINAL HOWEVER.
THE UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD SAT EVE WITH DCRG
PCPN CHCS.

TEMPS SHOULD AVG 5-10 DEG BLO SEASONAL LVLS LT THIS WK...AND 10-15
DEG BLO AVG SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WPC SUGGESTS FOLLOWING ENSEMBLE MEANS IN THIS ANOMALOUS PATTERN AND
SEE NO REASON TO DISAGREE.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING DEEP SYSTEM.  WITH THE NORTHEAST TROUGH HANGING AROUND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW
NORMAL.  SATURDAY NIGHT MAY BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON THUS FAR
WITH WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE 20S.  MODERATION CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS RIDGING DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN.  THE NEXT FRONT
MAY ARRIVE COME TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN SHOWER CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY ADVCTN IN THE WAKE OF LAST EVES FRONT WL MAINTAIN VFR TDA...BUT
PASSAGE OF A REINFORCING CDFNT IS PROGGED TO VEER THE WIND TO THE
NW TNGT...WITH COLD ADVCTN OFF THE GREAT LAKES FUELING MVFR STRATOCU
DVLPMNT FOR MOST TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTION POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS DEEPENING
LOW PRES IS PROJECTED TO SHUNT A BROAD MSTR SWATH OVR THE UPR OH
REGION. ENSUING COLD ADVCTN WL MAINTAIN STRATOCU POTENTIAL UNTIL
SFC HIGH STRENGTHENS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KLWX 291426
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1026 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC CDFNT WORKING ITS WAY NEWD. PCPN ALIGNED BHD THE FNT. NO
DOUBT...THE LEADING EDGE OF PCPN WORKING TO SATURATE ATMOS.

SYNOP AND MESOSCALE GDNC IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING FNT /AND PCPN/
THRU CWFA SLOWLY TDA. EVEN THO WE/RE NOT MAKING THE MOST OF SFC
CNVGNC...THERE/S MORE THAN ENUF LIFT FM THERMAL DISCONTINUITY AND
RRQ OF UPR JET. HV INCRSD POPS SOMEWHAT...ALTHO HV HELD BACK FM
FULL-FLEDGED CATEGORICAL.

HV A DECENT SURGE OF CAA IMMEDIATELY BHD PCPN...AND CAA WL CONT THRU
TNGT. TOOK MAXT DOWN BY PERHAPS A DEGF OR TWO TDA...AND THEN MIN-T
DOWN BY A CPL TNGT.

CURRENT FCST LOOKS REASONABLE AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY SIG CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
HIPRES WL BE CRESTING OVER CWFA THU. NO PCPN XPCTD. FOR THAT
MATTER...THERE WL BE VERY FEW CLDS TO START THE DAY THU. DO THINK
THAT THERE WL BE DIURNAL CU AS WELL AS AN ADVCTV MID DECK BY EVNG.

GOOD MOS AGREEMENT ON MAXT...MID-UPR 50S WL BE IT. MIN-T A BIT MORE
OF A CHALLENGE. ALL DEPENDS UPON HOW QUICKLY CLDS/WAA COME IN. IF
EITHER HOLDS OFF...THEN TEMPS CAN PLUMMET QUITE QUICKLY. HV GONE LWR
THAN PRVS FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN UNDERGOES SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
DIG SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
INCREASING AGREEMENT BETWEEN OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS OF A
CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE CAROLINAS.
THIS WILL THEN INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE COAST. THE GREATEST
FORCING WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WRAP-AROUND
FROM THE OFFSHORE LOW MAY NOT MAKE IT TOO FAR WEST. BUT GIVEN THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP...AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AREA-WIDE. AS
COLDER AIR WRAPS IN...SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS BY SATURDAY. THE SATURDAY-SUNDAY PERIOD WILL ALSO
BE BREEZY DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. DUE TO THE
MORE AMPLIFIED SYSTEM...THE COLDEST READINGS OF THIS SURGE MAY WAIT
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT NOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST...ALTHOUGH IT MAY NOT BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. LOW TEMPERATURES
NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ARE STILL POSSIBLE. THE HIGH DOMINATES INTO
TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MODIFYING BUT REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. A
FRONT MAY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALL TAFS WERE AMENDED BETWEEN 930 AND 10AM FOR A DELAY IN SHOWERS
AND/OR ADDITIONAL TAF INFO BEYOND 24 HOURS.

TODAY...VFR CIGS. CDFNT CROSSING TERMINALS TDA. THE WSHFT TO NW
WILL COME FIRST...AND IS IN PROGRESS NOW THROUGH KBWI KDCA.
SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW THE WIND SHIFT BY ABOUT 2-4 HOURS AND BRIEF
MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN A HEAVIER SHOWER.

TONIGHT...CLEARING WITH A LIGHT NW WIND.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MAY BRING MVFR CEILINGS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TPLM2 STILL G20KT AHD OF CDFNT IN SLY FLOW. HV SCA TIL 6AM FOR MID
BAY AND LWR PTMC.

WSHFT TO NW WL COME DURING THE DAY. WHILE HV A GOOD SURGE OF CAA BHD
FNT...MIXING NOT THAT GREAT DUE TO PCPN LAGGING BHD FNT. HV OPTED TO
CAP GUSTS BLO SCA CRITERIA FOR THE DAYTIME-EVNG HRS. GRADIENT DROPS
AFTR THAT AS HIPRES BLDS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. A GALE WARNING MAY ALSO BE NECESSARY
SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...AND POTENTIALLY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
EQUIPMENT...








000
FXUS61 KPHI 291403
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1003 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY,
BEFORE COMBINING WITH A DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOW
OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE WELL
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD BACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST MONDAY, THEN OFFSHORE TUESDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOUNT HOLLY IS ALSO SERVICE BACKING UP STERLING THROUGH 4 PM TODAY.
YOU`LL SEE STERLING FORECAST PRODUCTS ISSUED BY NWS MOUNT HOLLY.

930 AM ESTF: NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PRIOR FORECAST FOR TODAY.
HOWEVER A WORD OF CAUTION...THE CURRENT HOURLY TEMPS OVER E PA
AND NE MD IN RAIN COOLING THE AIR TEMP (WET BULBING) MAY BE 5
DEGREES TOO WARM IN EASTERN PA DURING MID AFTN (NEAR 52 DEGREES
INSTEAD OF THE HOURLY UPPER 50S-NEAR 60 TEMPS AS POSTED AT 930AM).
ONCE WE`RE MORE CONFIDENT...WE MAY RAISE POPS 30-40 PCT FOR THIS AFTN
IN E PA TO CATEGORICAL AND LOWER MID AFTN TEMPS...WONT KNOW MUCH
MORE TILL 11 AM OR NOON. 12Z NAM IS STARTING TO MIRROR THE WETTER
HEAVIER 06Z/29 GFS.

A COLD FRONT COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THRU
EASTERN PA THIS MORNING AND OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS, THE TREND WAS TO
SLOW DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS AS THE SEPARATION DISTANCE
BETWEEN THE FRONT AND POST-FRONTAL LIFT FROM THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
GROWS. MADE NOTABLE CHANGES TO THE POP/WX GRIDS TO TAKE THE DELAY
INTO ACCOUNT. SHOWERS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD AND RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY UNDER ONE THIRD INCH). ISOLATED
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE TRAILING THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRACKS FROM VA TO
THE DELMARVA, LEADING TO AN ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIP OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. THE
BACK EDGE OF THE LINGERING SHOWERS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
SHIFTING THRU THE I-95 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS EVENING AND OFF THE NJ/DE
COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ADVECT COLDER AND
EVENTUALLY DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. SKIES WILL CLEAR NOT TOO LONG
AFTER PRECIP ENDS- DURING THE EVENING ACROSS EASTERN PA AND
NORTHWEST NJ AND OVERNIGHT FOR COASTAL AREAS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A 5-10 MPH WIND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY WITH CAA AIDING IN A MIXED NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER.
THEREFORE, WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE A MAV/MET BLEND FOR MIN
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BEFORE A DECLINE IN THE WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

ON FRIDAY, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION, AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA WHILE A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS TO OUR SOUTH. WE
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH, IF ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY AS THE
PRECIPITATION TIED TO THE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST UNDERNEATH THE MID/UPPER LOW/TROUGH. AS WE GO INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT, THE MID/UPPER LOW WILL SWING TO OUR SOUTH, WHILE THE
SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN GETTING ABSORBED BY THE COASTAL LOW. THIS
WILL ALLOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA AS
THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING. IT LOOKS LIKE
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT STARTS OUT FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY A
COLD RAIN AS MODELS NOW KEEP 925/850 MB TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING,
ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR A MIXTURE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN AREAS.

THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING OFFSHORE OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST SATURDAY, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE LOW TO STRENGTHEN AND
WRAP UP MORE. THE GFS KEEPS THE PRECIP CLOSE TO THE SURFACE AND
MID-LEVEL LOW AND MOSTLY OFFSHORE, BUT THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP
PRECIP ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND EXTEND IT PRETTY FAR TO OUR
NORTHWEST, SO WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. THE MODELS DO SHOW THE PRECIP MOVING TO OUR NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE AND MID/UPPER LOW PULL TO OUR
NORTHEAST, SO WE`LL HAVE DECREASING POPS OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS
KEEP THE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY, SO THE BEST CHANCE FOR A MIX OR COMPLETE
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IF
THERE IS STILL ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION, MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA.

WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. WINDS LOOK TO GUST BETWEEN 30-40 MPH, WITH
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, BUT COLD AND BLUSTERY AS A STIFF
NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WINDS
COULD CONTINUE TO GUST 30-40 MPH ACROSS THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY AND NOSE ITS
WAY INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY, THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST, WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS OF NOW, THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY IS FOR
DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH IF THE WARM FRONT
PASSES CLOSE ENOUGH, A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR MOUNT HOLLY:

TODAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR CIGS TODAY AOA 5000 FT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER SHRA BEHIND A COLD FRONT BUT
CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CONDS IS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME.

LATEST HIGH RES SHORT TERM GUIDANCE AND THE 12Z NAM ARE SUGGESTING
SHOWERS MAY NOT ARRIVE KACY AND KMIV TIL AROUND 21Z AND MAY LINGER
THROUGH 01Z THIS EVENING.

LIGHT SHIFTING WIND TURNING W TO NW AND BRIEFLY GUSTING 20 KT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH LEFTOVER RAIN
KACY/KMIV AND SE DELAWARE ENDING BY 03Z/30. LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND.

FOR STERLING: NWS MOUNT HOLLY IS BACKING UP THIS OFFICE AND THEIR
TAFS THROUGH 20Z TODAY.

ALL TAFS WERE AMENDED BETWEEN 930 AND 10AM FOR A DELAY IN SHOWERS
AND/OR ADDITIONAL TAF INFO BEYOND 24 HOURS.

TODAY...VFR CIGS. CDFNT CROSSING TERMINALS TDA. THE WSHFT TO NW
WILL COME FIRST...AND IS IN PROGRESS NOW THROUGH KBWI KDCA.
SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW THE WIND SHIFT BY ABOUT 2-4 HOURS AND BRIEF
MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN A HEAVIER SHOWER.

TONIGHT...CLEARING WITH A LIGHT NW WIND.


OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...LOWER END VFR OR UPPER END MVFR WITH
CIGS 2,500-3,500 EXPECTED. LOWER VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWEST
NEW JERSEY. GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
25-30 KNOTS, POSSIBLY HIGHER NEAR THE COAST.

SUNDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT.

SW WIND 10-15 KT SHIFTING WNW LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH A GUST TO
20 KT POSSIBLE. NW WIND TONIGHT AT 10 TO 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS A SEAS WILL BE INCREASING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...INCREASING WINDS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A COASTAL LOW STRENGTHENS. GALE FORCE WINDS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY.

SUNDAY...GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE EARLY, BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
SERVICE BACKUP FOR STERLING - LWX TODAY. HAVE LISTED THIS UNDER
EQUIPMENT...JUST IN CASE THIS SERVICE BACKUP MESSAGE IS MISSED IN
THE NEAR TERM AND AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/KLEIN  1003A
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 1003A
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON 1003A
EQUIPMENT...







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