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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 282132
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
532 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GOING FORECAST HAS BEEN TWEAKED MAINLY TO HOLD ONTO ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG I-80 A TAD LONGER OWING TO LINGERING DIURNAL
INSTABILITY DRIVING A HANDFUL OF CURRENT RADAR ECHOES.
OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH HAS BEEN CHANGED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS
THE SHORT WAVE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED TO REMOVE EARLY EVENING WORDING AND TO ALLOW FOR THE TREND
DOWN TO JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH. FRIES

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY FOLLOWS...AFTER
CURRENT SHORTWAVE PASSES EAST THIS EVENING LEFTOVER UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL END IN THE RIDGES. THEN A QUITE COOL OVERNIGHT WITH
RECORD LOWS BEING CHALLENGED ACROSS THE REGION. THE RECORD LOW IN
PITTSBURGH FOR JULY 29TH IS 52 SET IN 1982. MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR TUESDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH COLD AIR
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ONCE AGAIN MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOOKS LIKE OCTOBER
IN JULY WITH DEEP CLOSED LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA NEARLY
STATIONARY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING UNDERNEATH IT. BEST SHOWER
CHANCES WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST.
BULK OF SHOWERS THURSDAY SHOULD BE DIURNAL AND CONFINED TO THE
I-80 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPR TROF WL SET UP ACRS THE ERN CONUS THRU THE LONG TERM PD. SVRL
WK SHRTWVS WL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF...BUT WITH LMTD AVAIL DEEP
MOISTURE EXP MAINLY DIURNAL LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS EACH DAY. TEMPS WL
AVG NR OR JUST BLO SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ADVNG ERN GT LKS LOW PRES WL WDSPRD BRING MVFR SC AND A NMRS SHWRS
TO THE RGN THRU THIS AFTN...ALG WITH GUSTY W-NW WNDS. LINGERING VFR
SC/DIURNAL CU IS EXPD AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TNGT INTO TUE.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 282132
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
532 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GOING FORECAST HAS BEEN TWEAKED MAINLY TO HOLD ONTO ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG I-80 A TAD LONGER OWING TO LINGERING DIURNAL
INSTABILITY DRIVING A HANDFUL OF CURRENT RADAR ECHOES.
OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH HAS BEEN CHANGED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS
THE SHORT WAVE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED TO REMOVE EARLY EVENING WORDING AND TO ALLOW FOR THE TREND
DOWN TO JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH. FRIES

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY FOLLOWS...AFTER
CURRENT SHORTWAVE PASSES EAST THIS EVENING LEFTOVER UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL END IN THE RIDGES. THEN A QUITE COOL OVERNIGHT WITH
RECORD LOWS BEING CHALLENGED ACROSS THE REGION. THE RECORD LOW IN
PITTSBURGH FOR JULY 29TH IS 52 SET IN 1982. MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR TUESDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH COLD AIR
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ONCE AGAIN MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOOKS LIKE OCTOBER
IN JULY WITH DEEP CLOSED LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA NEARLY
STATIONARY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING UNDERNEATH IT. BEST SHOWER
CHANCES WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST.
BULK OF SHOWERS THURSDAY SHOULD BE DIURNAL AND CONFINED TO THE
I-80 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPR TROF WL SET UP ACRS THE ERN CONUS THRU THE LONG TERM PD. SVRL
WK SHRTWVS WL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF...BUT WITH LMTD AVAIL DEEP
MOISTURE EXP MAINLY DIURNAL LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS EACH DAY. TEMPS WL
AVG NR OR JUST BLO SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ADVNG ERN GT LKS LOW PRES WL WDSPRD BRING MVFR SC AND A NMRS SHWRS
TO THE RGN THRU THIS AFTN...ALG WITH GUSTY W-NW WNDS. LINGERING VFR
SC/DIURNAL CU IS EXPD AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TNGT INTO TUE.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 282132
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
532 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GOING FORECAST HAS BEEN TWEAKED MAINLY TO HOLD ONTO ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG I-80 A TAD LONGER OWING TO LINGERING DIURNAL
INSTABILITY DRIVING A HANDFUL OF CURRENT RADAR ECHOES.
OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH HAS BEEN CHANGED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS
THE SHORT WAVE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED TO REMOVE EARLY EVENING WORDING AND TO ALLOW FOR THE TREND
DOWN TO JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH. FRIES

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY FOLLOWS...AFTER
CURRENT SHORTWAVE PASSES EAST THIS EVENING LEFTOVER UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL END IN THE RIDGES. THEN A QUITE COOL OVERNIGHT WITH
RECORD LOWS BEING CHALLENGED ACROSS THE REGION. THE RECORD LOW IN
PITTSBURGH FOR JULY 29TH IS 52 SET IN 1982. MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR TUESDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH COLD AIR
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ONCE AGAIN MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOOKS LIKE OCTOBER
IN JULY WITH DEEP CLOSED LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA NEARLY
STATIONARY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING UNDERNEATH IT. BEST SHOWER
CHANCES WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST.
BULK OF SHOWERS THURSDAY SHOULD BE DIURNAL AND CONFINED TO THE
I-80 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPR TROF WL SET UP ACRS THE ERN CONUS THRU THE LONG TERM PD. SVRL
WK SHRTWVS WL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF...BUT WITH LMTD AVAIL DEEP
MOISTURE EXP MAINLY DIURNAL LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS EACH DAY. TEMPS WL
AVG NR OR JUST BLO SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ADVNG ERN GT LKS LOW PRES WL WDSPRD BRING MVFR SC AND A NMRS SHWRS
TO THE RGN THRU THIS AFTN...ALG WITH GUSTY W-NW WNDS. LINGERING VFR
SC/DIURNAL CU IS EXPD AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TNGT INTO TUE.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 282132
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
532 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GOING FORECAST HAS BEEN TWEAKED MAINLY TO HOLD ONTO ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG I-80 A TAD LONGER OWING TO LINGERING DIURNAL
INSTABILITY DRIVING A HANDFUL OF CURRENT RADAR ECHOES.
OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH HAS BEEN CHANGED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS
THE SHORT WAVE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED TO REMOVE EARLY EVENING WORDING AND TO ALLOW FOR THE TREND
DOWN TO JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH. FRIES

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY FOLLOWS...AFTER
CURRENT SHORTWAVE PASSES EAST THIS EVENING LEFTOVER UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL END IN THE RIDGES. THEN A QUITE COOL OVERNIGHT WITH
RECORD LOWS BEING CHALLENGED ACROSS THE REGION. THE RECORD LOW IN
PITTSBURGH FOR JULY 29TH IS 52 SET IN 1982. MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR TUESDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH COLD AIR
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ONCE AGAIN MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOOKS LIKE OCTOBER
IN JULY WITH DEEP CLOSED LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA NEARLY
STATIONARY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING UNDERNEATH IT. BEST SHOWER
CHANCES WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST.
BULK OF SHOWERS THURSDAY SHOULD BE DIURNAL AND CONFINED TO THE
I-80 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPR TROF WL SET UP ACRS THE ERN CONUS THRU THE LONG TERM PD. SVRL
WK SHRTWVS WL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF...BUT WITH LMTD AVAIL DEEP
MOISTURE EXP MAINLY DIURNAL LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS EACH DAY. TEMPS WL
AVG NR OR JUST BLO SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ADVNG ERN GT LKS LOW PRES WL WDSPRD BRING MVFR SC AND A NMRS SHWRS
TO THE RGN THRU THIS AFTN...ALG WITH GUSTY W-NW WNDS. LINGERING VFR
SC/DIURNAL CU IS EXPD AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TNGT INTO TUE.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






  [top]

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 282012
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
412 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE FOR THURSDAY.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE CST TNGT INTO TUE. BREEZY WEST WINDS
USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN...WILL CALM DOWN
AND TURN TO THE NW THEN N TNGT INTO TUE MORNG. WILL MAINTAIN JUST
A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER OR TSTM INTO EARLY THIS EVENG...MAINLY OVR
NE NC...AS THE FRONT MAY INTERACT WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND MORE COMFORTABLE TNGT
WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPR 50S EXTRM NW...TO THE UPR 60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND RATHER PLEASANT TUE AND WED (ESPLY TUE)...AS SFC HI PRES
BLDS INTO AND OVR THE AREA...DESPITE LONGWAVE TROF DIGGING
(SITTING) OVR THE MID ATLC REGION. AN ISLTD SHOWER OR TSTM COULD
OCCUR OVR NE NC TUE AFTN...AS THE BASE OF THE UPR LEVEL TROF SWINGS
THRU THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SFC LO LINGERING JUST
OFF THE NC CST. UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...MAX TEMPS
WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S. GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR TUE
NGT WITH LOWS RANGING FM THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S MOST PLACES.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON WED WITH HIGHS IN THE LWR TO MID 80S.
MOSTLY CLEAR WED NGT WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPR 50S TO MID
60S. HI PRES WILL BE OFF THE CST FOR THU...WITH E THRU S FLO ACRS
THE AREA. SLGT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S (MAYBE SOME UPR 80S).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD STAYS
DRY THU NGT/FRIDAY...WITH SOME SCT (MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN) SHRAS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE MS VLY AND A COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LOCATE
ALONG/JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY THROUGH THIS SAME WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT
WEEK TIME FRAME. FOR TEMPS, LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW
CLIMO NORMAL...GENERALLY RIDING INTO THE L-M 80S. EARLY MORNING LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S SAT MORNING, INCREMENTALLY INCREASING TO U60S
TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...DEEP WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO NW/N BY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WAS RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRATOCU/MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THIS SHOULD LARGELY CLEAR THIS
EVENING AND REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST...ON TUESDAY.
WINDS BECOME N/NE ON TUESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE
LATE TIN THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT W-SW FLOW 10-15 KT (15-20 KT IN THE LOWER CHES
BAY) OUT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT WHICH IS PRESENTLY DROPPING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS GENERALLY RUNNING 2-3 FT
THIS AFTN, HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN WATERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL THE
WATERS EARLY TONIGHT, WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE NNW AFTER 00Z
AS MODEST CAA SURGE RIDES DOWN THE BAY. WINDS COULD GUST TO SCA FOR
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS THIS AFTN, BUT SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA BRIEFLY
LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVENING. DESPITE THIS LULL, CONTINUED
SCA OVER THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH
THE IDEA OF WINDS SLOWLY SUBSIDING TUESDAY MORNING. WILL HANDLE
WORDING OF RAMP UP OF WINDS IN THE MWW/CWF.

WINDS BECOME ONSHORE AND DIMINISH AOB 10KT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK. STAYED CLOSE TO NWPS, WITH ONSHORE
FLOW KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED AROUND 2 TO 4 FT. COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST BY THE WEEKEND, WITH WINDS VEERING
AROUND TO THE S-SW LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
AGAIN OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAM






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 282012
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
412 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE FOR THURSDAY.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE CST TNGT INTO TUE. BREEZY WEST WINDS
USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN...WILL CALM DOWN
AND TURN TO THE NW THEN N TNGT INTO TUE MORNG. WILL MAINTAIN JUST
A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER OR TSTM INTO EARLY THIS EVENG...MAINLY OVR
NE NC...AS THE FRONT MAY INTERACT WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND MORE COMFORTABLE TNGT
WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPR 50S EXTRM NW...TO THE UPR 60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND RATHER PLEASANT TUE AND WED (ESPLY TUE)...AS SFC HI PRES
BLDS INTO AND OVR THE AREA...DESPITE LONGWAVE TROF DIGGING
(SITTING) OVR THE MID ATLC REGION. AN ISLTD SHOWER OR TSTM COULD
OCCUR OVR NE NC TUE AFTN...AS THE BASE OF THE UPR LEVEL TROF SWINGS
THRU THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SFC LO LINGERING JUST
OFF THE NC CST. UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...MAX TEMPS
WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S. GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR TUE
NGT WITH LOWS RANGING FM THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S MOST PLACES.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON WED WITH HIGHS IN THE LWR TO MID 80S.
MOSTLY CLEAR WED NGT WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPR 50S TO MID
60S. HI PRES WILL BE OFF THE CST FOR THU...WITH E THRU S FLO ACRS
THE AREA. SLGT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S (MAYBE SOME UPR 80S).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD STAYS
DRY THU NGT/FRIDAY...WITH SOME SCT (MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN) SHRAS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE MS VLY AND A COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LOCATE
ALONG/JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY THROUGH THIS SAME WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT
WEEK TIME FRAME. FOR TEMPS, LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW
CLIMO NORMAL...GENERALLY RIDING INTO THE L-M 80S. EARLY MORNING LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S SAT MORNING, INCREMENTALLY INCREASING TO U60S
TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...DEEP WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO NW/N BY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WAS RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRATOCU/MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THIS SHOULD LARGELY CLEAR THIS
EVENING AND REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST...ON TUESDAY.
WINDS BECOME N/NE ON TUESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE
LATE TIN THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT W-SW FLOW 10-15 KT (15-20 KT IN THE LOWER CHES
BAY) OUT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT WHICH IS PRESENTLY DROPPING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS GENERALLY RUNNING 2-3 FT
THIS AFTN, HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN WATERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL THE
WATERS EARLY TONIGHT, WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE NNW AFTER 00Z
AS MODEST CAA SURGE RIDES DOWN THE BAY. WINDS COULD GUST TO SCA FOR
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS THIS AFTN, BUT SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA BRIEFLY
LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVENING. DESPITE THIS LULL, CONTINUED
SCA OVER THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH
THE IDEA OF WINDS SLOWLY SUBSIDING TUESDAY MORNING. WILL HANDLE
WORDING OF RAMP UP OF WINDS IN THE MWW/CWF.

WINDS BECOME ONSHORE AND DIMINISH AOB 10KT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK. STAYED CLOSE TO NWPS, WITH ONSHORE
FLOW KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED AROUND 2 TO 4 FT. COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST BY THE WEEKEND, WITH WINDS VEERING
AROUND TO THE S-SW LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
AGAIN OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAM






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 282012
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
412 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE FOR THURSDAY.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE CST TNGT INTO TUE. BREEZY WEST WINDS
USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN...WILL CALM DOWN
AND TURN TO THE NW THEN N TNGT INTO TUE MORNG. WILL MAINTAIN JUST
A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER OR TSTM INTO EARLY THIS EVENG...MAINLY OVR
NE NC...AS THE FRONT MAY INTERACT WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND MORE COMFORTABLE TNGT
WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPR 50S EXTRM NW...TO THE UPR 60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND RATHER PLEASANT TUE AND WED (ESPLY TUE)...AS SFC HI PRES
BLDS INTO AND OVR THE AREA...DESPITE LONGWAVE TROF DIGGING
(SITTING) OVR THE MID ATLC REGION. AN ISLTD SHOWER OR TSTM COULD
OCCUR OVR NE NC TUE AFTN...AS THE BASE OF THE UPR LEVEL TROF SWINGS
THRU THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SFC LO LINGERING JUST
OFF THE NC CST. UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...MAX TEMPS
WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S. GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR TUE
NGT WITH LOWS RANGING FM THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S MOST PLACES.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON WED WITH HIGHS IN THE LWR TO MID 80S.
MOSTLY CLEAR WED NGT WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPR 50S TO MID
60S. HI PRES WILL BE OFF THE CST FOR THU...WITH E THRU S FLO ACRS
THE AREA. SLGT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S (MAYBE SOME UPR 80S).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD STAYS
DRY THU NGT/FRIDAY...WITH SOME SCT (MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN) SHRAS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE MS VLY AND A COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LOCATE
ALONG/JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY THROUGH THIS SAME WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT
WEEK TIME FRAME. FOR TEMPS, LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW
CLIMO NORMAL...GENERALLY RIDING INTO THE L-M 80S. EARLY MORNING LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S SAT MORNING, INCREMENTALLY INCREASING TO U60S
TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...DEEP WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO NW/N BY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WAS RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRATOCU/MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THIS SHOULD LARGELY CLEAR THIS
EVENING AND REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST...ON TUESDAY.
WINDS BECOME N/NE ON TUESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE
LATE TIN THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT W-SW FLOW 10-15 KT (15-20 KT IN THE LOWER CHES
BAY) OUT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT WHICH IS PRESENTLY DROPPING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS GENERALLY RUNNING 2-3 FT
THIS AFTN, HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN WATERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL THE
WATERS EARLY TONIGHT, WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE NNW AFTER 00Z
AS MODEST CAA SURGE RIDES DOWN THE BAY. WINDS COULD GUST TO SCA FOR
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS THIS AFTN, BUT SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA BRIEFLY
LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVENING. DESPITE THIS LULL, CONTINUED
SCA OVER THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH
THE IDEA OF WINDS SLOWLY SUBSIDING TUESDAY MORNING. WILL HANDLE
WORDING OF RAMP UP OF WINDS IN THE MWW/CWF.

WINDS BECOME ONSHORE AND DIMINISH AOB 10KT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK. STAYED CLOSE TO NWPS, WITH ONSHORE
FLOW KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED AROUND 2 TO 4 FT. COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST BY THE WEEKEND, WITH WINDS VEERING
AROUND TO THE S-SW LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
AGAIN OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAM






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 282012
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
412 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE FOR THURSDAY.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE CST TNGT INTO TUE. BREEZY WEST WINDS
USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN...WILL CALM DOWN
AND TURN TO THE NW THEN N TNGT INTO TUE MORNG. WILL MAINTAIN JUST
A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER OR TSTM INTO EARLY THIS EVENG...MAINLY OVR
NE NC...AS THE FRONT MAY INTERACT WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND MORE COMFORTABLE TNGT
WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPR 50S EXTRM NW...TO THE UPR 60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND RATHER PLEASANT TUE AND WED (ESPLY TUE)...AS SFC HI PRES
BLDS INTO AND OVR THE AREA...DESPITE LONGWAVE TROF DIGGING
(SITTING) OVR THE MID ATLC REGION. AN ISLTD SHOWER OR TSTM COULD
OCCUR OVR NE NC TUE AFTN...AS THE BASE OF THE UPR LEVEL TROF SWINGS
THRU THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SFC LO LINGERING JUST
OFF THE NC CST. UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...MAX TEMPS
WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S. GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR TUE
NGT WITH LOWS RANGING FM THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S MOST PLACES.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON WED WITH HIGHS IN THE LWR TO MID 80S.
MOSTLY CLEAR WED NGT WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPR 50S TO MID
60S. HI PRES WILL BE OFF THE CST FOR THU...WITH E THRU S FLO ACRS
THE AREA. SLGT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S (MAYBE SOME UPR 80S).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD STAYS
DRY THU NGT/FRIDAY...WITH SOME SCT (MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN) SHRAS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE MS VLY AND A COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LOCATE
ALONG/JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY THROUGH THIS SAME WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT
WEEK TIME FRAME. FOR TEMPS, LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW
CLIMO NORMAL...GENERALLY RIDING INTO THE L-M 80S. EARLY MORNING LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S SAT MORNING, INCREMENTALLY INCREASING TO U60S
TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...DEEP WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO NW/N BY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WAS RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRATOCU/MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THIS SHOULD LARGELY CLEAR THIS
EVENING AND REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST...ON TUESDAY.
WINDS BECOME N/NE ON TUESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE
LATE TIN THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT W-SW FLOW 10-15 KT (15-20 KT IN THE LOWER CHES
BAY) OUT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT WHICH IS PRESENTLY DROPPING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS GENERALLY RUNNING 2-3 FT
THIS AFTN, HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN WATERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL THE
WATERS EARLY TONIGHT, WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE NNW AFTER 00Z
AS MODEST CAA SURGE RIDES DOWN THE BAY. WINDS COULD GUST TO SCA FOR
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS THIS AFTN, BUT SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA BRIEFLY
LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVENING. DESPITE THIS LULL, CONTINUED
SCA OVER THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH
THE IDEA OF WINDS SLOWLY SUBSIDING TUESDAY MORNING. WILL HANDLE
WORDING OF RAMP UP OF WINDS IN THE MWW/CWF.

WINDS BECOME ONSHORE AND DIMINISH AOB 10KT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK. STAYED CLOSE TO NWPS, WITH ONSHORE
FLOW KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED AROUND 2 TO 4 FT. COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST BY THE WEEKEND, WITH WINDS VEERING
AROUND TO THE S-SW LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
AGAIN OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAM





  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPHI 281957
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
357 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING IS SHOVING A COLD
FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW
LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT THEN MERGES INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE THIS WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE
FRONT WILL BE LURKING JUST OFF THE COAST AS A STATIONARY FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AND SHOULD
PASS COMPLETELY THROUGH BY MIDNIGHT. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND VERY
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
ALL OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SHOWERS/THUNDER DISSIPATING AND/OR
WEAKENING AS THEY REACH OUR AREA THIS EVENING AS THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH LIFTS TO OUR NORTHEAST. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES MOVE INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH THE COLD
FRONT, SO THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THE SHOWERS COULD MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES ACROSS A PORTION OF THE AREA. THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP
ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING FROM THE DELAWARE VALLEY
NORTHWARD, BUT WE END EVERYTHING BY MIDNIGHT.

AFTER THE SHOWERS END, CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT, BUT HOW
MUCH THEY SCATTER WILL DETERMINE HOW COOL IT GETS TONIGHT. FOR NOW
WE USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE WHICH DROPS EVERYONE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT AND ENDS UP BEING SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO THIS EVENING, BUT THE GUSTS SHOULD DROP
OFF AFTER SUNSET THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SWITCH TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A NICE TUESDAY AHEAD AS COOLER, DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN
ACROSS THE AREA AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST. WITH PW VALUES BELOW ONE INCH AND NO SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES, TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY ACROSS THE
AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS 925/850
MB TEMPS AND THICKNESSES DECREASE INTO TUESDAY. USED A BLEND OF
MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB TEMPS FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WHICH ENDS UP BEING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB: A LARGE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN LATE THIS
WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES: ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY WARMING TO
NEAR NORMAL THIS COMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/28 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE 12Z/28 GFS
MOS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN THEREAFTER (FRIDAY ONWARD)
THE 1522Z/28 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE FOR ALL ELEMENTS EXCEPT HAVE
APPLIED THE WARMER 12Z/28 MEXMOS TEMPS. ALL THIS WAS CHECKED
AGAINST THE 12Z/28 ECMWF TO ENSURE WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK (BARRING
MIDDAY OVC SKIES AND RAIN) WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z
2METER TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE WAS
CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/28 SREF POPS FOR .01 IN 3 HRS THROUGH 00Z
FRIDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/28 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05 .


THE DAILIES...
IT SORT OF LOOKS LIKE WE`RE PRIMARILY IN A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
REGION THIS 6 DAY PERIOD AND NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH RAIN.

BASICALLY FOR NOW ITS A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER FORECAST THIS 6 DAY
PERIOD.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LATE DAY OR EVENING CONVECTION NE PA
AND NW NJ LATER IN THE WEEK BUT FOR NOW IS CHANCEY AND LOW
CONFIDENCE.

AS FOR THE LURKING QUASI STATIONARY ALONG THE COAST... IT MAY DRIFT
CLOSER TO THE SHORE BY THE WEEKEND AS A WARM FRONT WITH ITS
CONVECTION POSSIBLY SPREADING ASHORE BUT CONFIDENCE FOR THIS
SCENARIO IS ALSO BELOW AVERAGE.

IT DOES APPEAR THIS QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE AND AS IT DOES...HIGHER HUMIDITY SHOULD SLOWLY RETURN TO
THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES AND POPS AS DESCRIBED ABOVE IN THE FORECAST BASIS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT
AND INTO TUESDAY. A LINE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE
SHOWERS/THUNDER WILL DISSIPATE/WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA THIS
EVENING, HOWEVER, WE HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO SHOWER GROUP FOR THE
DELAWARE VALLEY TAFS THIS EVENING, AND ENDED UP ADDING A TEMPO
THUNDERSTORM GROUP FOR ABE/RDG THIS EVENING. IT`S POSSIBLE THAT
VSBYS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO 5SM OR LESS, MAINLY FOR ABE/RDG, SO ADDED
IT IN FOR THESE TWO SITES. THE REST WERE LESS CONFIDENT, SO LEFT
THEM OUT FOR NOW.

WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING 20-25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDOWN,
THEN THE GUSTS SHOULD DROP OFF, AND WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS MAY BEGIN
SWITCHING TO WEST OR SOUTHWEST AGAIN BY LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING, AND A SEABREEZE MAY FORM ALONG THE COAST BY THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
EACH DAY BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON OCCURRENCE. PATCHY IFR FOG OR
STRATUS IS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE DELAWARE BAY AND THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WAS EXTENDED THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AS WINDS ARE GUSTING AROUND 25-30 KNOTS NOW, AND SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH, THE GUSTS WILL SWITCH FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST
AND DROP OFF SLIGHT, AND SEAS SHOULD LOWER AS WELL. THE SEAS MAY
REMAIN LONGER ON THE NORTHERN WATERS A FEW MORE HOURS, SO WE LEAVE
THE NORTHERN HALF ENDING AT 6 AM TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED. LOOKS LIKE GOOD
WEATHER FOR BEING ON THE WATERS IN THIS TIME FRAME.

WE ARE MONITORING THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUN DEPICTION (FOR SEVERAL
FORECAST CYCLES) OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL VERSION STILL DOESNT
HAVE IT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431-
     452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450-451.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 356
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...DRAG/ROBERTSON 356
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 356
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON 356







000
FXUS61 KPHI 281957
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
357 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING IS SHOVING A COLD
FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW
LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT THEN MERGES INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE THIS WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE
FRONT WILL BE LURKING JUST OFF THE COAST AS A STATIONARY FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AND SHOULD
PASS COMPLETELY THROUGH BY MIDNIGHT. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND VERY
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
ALL OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SHOWERS/THUNDER DISSIPATING AND/OR
WEAKENING AS THEY REACH OUR AREA THIS EVENING AS THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH LIFTS TO OUR NORTHEAST. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES MOVE INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH THE COLD
FRONT, SO THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THE SHOWERS COULD MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES ACROSS A PORTION OF THE AREA. THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP
ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING FROM THE DELAWARE VALLEY
NORTHWARD, BUT WE END EVERYTHING BY MIDNIGHT.

AFTER THE SHOWERS END, CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT, BUT HOW
MUCH THEY SCATTER WILL DETERMINE HOW COOL IT GETS TONIGHT. FOR NOW
WE USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE WHICH DROPS EVERYONE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT AND ENDS UP BEING SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO THIS EVENING, BUT THE GUSTS SHOULD DROP
OFF AFTER SUNSET THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SWITCH TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A NICE TUESDAY AHEAD AS COOLER, DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN
ACROSS THE AREA AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST. WITH PW VALUES BELOW ONE INCH AND NO SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES, TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY ACROSS THE
AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS 925/850
MB TEMPS AND THICKNESSES DECREASE INTO TUESDAY. USED A BLEND OF
MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB TEMPS FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WHICH ENDS UP BEING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB: A LARGE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN LATE THIS
WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES: ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY WARMING TO
NEAR NORMAL THIS COMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/28 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE 12Z/28 GFS
MOS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN THEREAFTER (FRIDAY ONWARD)
THE 1522Z/28 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE FOR ALL ELEMENTS EXCEPT HAVE
APPLIED THE WARMER 12Z/28 MEXMOS TEMPS. ALL THIS WAS CHECKED
AGAINST THE 12Z/28 ECMWF TO ENSURE WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK (BARRING
MIDDAY OVC SKIES AND RAIN) WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z
2METER TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE WAS
CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/28 SREF POPS FOR .01 IN 3 HRS THROUGH 00Z
FRIDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/28 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05 .


THE DAILIES...
IT SORT OF LOOKS LIKE WE`RE PRIMARILY IN A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
REGION THIS 6 DAY PERIOD AND NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH RAIN.

BASICALLY FOR NOW ITS A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER FORECAST THIS 6 DAY
PERIOD.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LATE DAY OR EVENING CONVECTION NE PA
AND NW NJ LATER IN THE WEEK BUT FOR NOW IS CHANCEY AND LOW
CONFIDENCE.

AS FOR THE LURKING QUASI STATIONARY ALONG THE COAST... IT MAY DRIFT
CLOSER TO THE SHORE BY THE WEEKEND AS A WARM FRONT WITH ITS
CONVECTION POSSIBLY SPREADING ASHORE BUT CONFIDENCE FOR THIS
SCENARIO IS ALSO BELOW AVERAGE.

IT DOES APPEAR THIS QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE AND AS IT DOES...HIGHER HUMIDITY SHOULD SLOWLY RETURN TO
THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES AND POPS AS DESCRIBED ABOVE IN THE FORECAST BASIS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT
AND INTO TUESDAY. A LINE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE
SHOWERS/THUNDER WILL DISSIPATE/WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA THIS
EVENING, HOWEVER, WE HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO SHOWER GROUP FOR THE
DELAWARE VALLEY TAFS THIS EVENING, AND ENDED UP ADDING A TEMPO
THUNDERSTORM GROUP FOR ABE/RDG THIS EVENING. IT`S POSSIBLE THAT
VSBYS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO 5SM OR LESS, MAINLY FOR ABE/RDG, SO ADDED
IT IN FOR THESE TWO SITES. THE REST WERE LESS CONFIDENT, SO LEFT
THEM OUT FOR NOW.

WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING 20-25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDOWN,
THEN THE GUSTS SHOULD DROP OFF, AND WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS MAY BEGIN
SWITCHING TO WEST OR SOUTHWEST AGAIN BY LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING, AND A SEABREEZE MAY FORM ALONG THE COAST BY THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
EACH DAY BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON OCCURRENCE. PATCHY IFR FOG OR
STRATUS IS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE DELAWARE BAY AND THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WAS EXTENDED THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AS WINDS ARE GUSTING AROUND 25-30 KNOTS NOW, AND SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH, THE GUSTS WILL SWITCH FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST
AND DROP OFF SLIGHT, AND SEAS SHOULD LOWER AS WELL. THE SEAS MAY
REMAIN LONGER ON THE NORTHERN WATERS A FEW MORE HOURS, SO WE LEAVE
THE NORTHERN HALF ENDING AT 6 AM TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED. LOOKS LIKE GOOD
WEATHER FOR BEING ON THE WATERS IN THIS TIME FRAME.

WE ARE MONITORING THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUN DEPICTION (FOR SEVERAL
FORECAST CYCLES) OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL VERSION STILL DOESNT
HAVE IT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431-
     452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450-451.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 356
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...DRAG/ROBERTSON 356
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 356
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON 356






000
FXUS61 KPHI 281941
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
341 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING IS SHOVING A COLD
FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW
LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT THEN MERGES INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE THIS WEEK. THE MEANWHILE THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE LURKING JUST OFF THE COAST AS A STATIONARY FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AND SHOULD
PASS COMPLETELY THROUGH BY MIDNIGHT. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND VERY
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
ALL OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SHOWERS/THUNDER DISSIPATING AND/OR
WEAKENING AS THEY REACH OUR AREA THIS EVENING AS THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH LIFTS TO OUR NORTHEAST. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES MOVE INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH THE COLD
FRONT, SO THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THE SHOWERS COULD MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES ACROSS A PORTION OF THE AREA. THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP
ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING FROM THE DELAWARE VALLEY
NORTHWARD, BUT WE END EVERYTHING BY MIDNIGHT.

AFTER THE SHOWERS END, CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT, BUT HOW
MUCH THEY SCATTER WILL DETERMINE HOW COOL IT GETS TONIGHT. FOR NOW
WE USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE WHICH DROPS EVERYONE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT AND ENDS UP BEING SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO THIS EVENING, BUT THE GUSTS SHOULD DROP
OFF AFTER SUNSET THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SWITCH TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND IT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A NICE TUESDAY AHEAD AS COOLER, DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN
ACROSS THE AREA AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST. WITH PW VALUES BELOW ONE INCH AND NO SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES, TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY ACROSS THE
AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS 925/850
MB TEMPS AND THICKNESSES DECREASE INTO TUESDAY. USED A BLEND OF
MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB TEMPS FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WHICH ENDS UP BEING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB: A LARGE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN LATE THIS
WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES: ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY WARMING TO
NEAR NORMAL THIS COMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/28 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE 12Z/28 GFS
MOS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN THEREAFTER (FRIDAY ONWARD)
THE 1522Z/28 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE FOR ALL ELEMENTS EXCEPT APPLIED
THE WARMER 12Z/28 MEXMOS TEMPS. ALL THIS WAS CHECKED AGAINST THE
12Z/28 ECMWF TO ENSURE WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK (BARRING MIDDAY OVC
SKIES AND RAIN) WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2METER
TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE WAS CHECKED
AGAINST THE 09Z/28 SREF POPS FOR .01 IN 3 HRS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY
AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/28 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05 .


THE DAILIES...
IT SORT OF LOOKS LIKE WE`RE PRIMARILY IN A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
REGION THIS 6 DAY PERIOD AND NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH RAIN.

BASICALLY FOR NOW ITS A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER FORECAST THIS 6 DAY
PERIOD.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LATE DAY OR EVENING CONVECTION NE PA
AND NW NJ LATER IN THE WEEK BUT FOR NOW IS CHANCEY AND LOW
CONFIDENCE.

AS FOR THE LURKING QUASI STATIONARY ALONG THE COAST... IT MAY DRIFT
CLOSER TO THE SHORE BY THE WEEKEND AS A WARM FRONT WITH ITS
CONVECTION POSSIBLY SPREADING ASHORE BUT CONFIDENCE FOR THIS
SCENARIO IS ALSO BELOW AVERAGE.

IT DOES APPEAR THIS QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE AND AS IT DOES...HIGHER HUMIDITY SHOULD SLOWLY RETURN TO
THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES AND POPS AS DESCRIBED ABOVE IN THE FORECAST BASIS.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT
AND INTO TUESDAY. A LINE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE
SHOWERS/THUNDER WILL DISSIPATE/WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA THIS
EVENING, HOWEVER, WE HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO SHOWER GROUP FOR THE
DELAWARE VALLEY TAFS THIS EVENING, AND ENDED UP ADDING A TEMPO
THUNDERSTORM GROUP FOR ABE/RDG THIS EVENING. IT`S POSSIBLE THAT
VSBYS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO 5SM OR LESS, MAINLY FOR ABE/RDG, SO ADDED
IT IN FOR THESE TWO SITES. THE REST WERE LESS CONFIDENT, SO LEFT
THEM OUT FOR NOW.

WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING 20-25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDOWN,
THEN THE GUSTS SHOULD DROP OFF, AND WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS MAY BEGIN
SWITCHING TO WEST OR SOUTHWEST AGAIN BY LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING, AND A SEABREEZE MAY FORM ALONG THE COAST BY THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON OCCURRENCE. PATCHY IFR FOG OR
STRATUS IS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT,

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE DELAWARE BAY AND THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WAS EXTENDED THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AS WINDS ARE GUSTING AROUND 25-30 KNOTS NOW, AND SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH, THE GUSTS WILL SWITCH FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST
AND DROP OFF SLIGHT, AND SEAS SHOULD LOWER AS WELL. THE SEAS MAY
REMAIN LONGER ON THE NORTHERN WATERS A FEW MORE HOURS, SO WE LEAVE
THE NORTHERN HALF ENDING AT 6 AM TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.  GOOD WEATHER FOR
BEING ON THE WATERS.

WE ARE MONITORING ONE MODELS OPERATIONAL RUN DEPICTION OF A TROPICAL
SYSTEM IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN FOR NEXT WEEK BUT THE ECMWF
OPERATIONAL VERSION STILL DOESNT HAVE IT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT THIS EVENING FOR
 ANZ430- 431-452>455.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450-451.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 342
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON 342
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON 342
LONG TERM...DRAG/ROBERTSON 342
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 342
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON 342







000
FXUS61 KPHI 281941
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
341 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING IS SHOVING A COLD
FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW
LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT THEN MERGES INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE THIS WEEK. THE MEANWHILE THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE LURKING JUST OFF THE COAST AS A STATIONARY FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AND SHOULD
PASS COMPLETELY THROUGH BY MIDNIGHT. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND VERY
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
ALL OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SHOWERS/THUNDER DISSIPATING AND/OR
WEAKENING AS THEY REACH OUR AREA THIS EVENING AS THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH LIFTS TO OUR NORTHEAST. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES MOVE INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH THE COLD
FRONT, SO THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THE SHOWERS COULD MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES ACROSS A PORTION OF THE AREA. THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP
ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING FROM THE DELAWARE VALLEY
NORTHWARD, BUT WE END EVERYTHING BY MIDNIGHT.

AFTER THE SHOWERS END, CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT, BUT HOW
MUCH THEY SCATTER WILL DETERMINE HOW COOL IT GETS TONIGHT. FOR NOW
WE USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE WHICH DROPS EVERYONE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT AND ENDS UP BEING SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO THIS EVENING, BUT THE GUSTS SHOULD DROP
OFF AFTER SUNSET THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SWITCH TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND IT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A NICE TUESDAY AHEAD AS COOLER, DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN
ACROSS THE AREA AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST. WITH PW VALUES BELOW ONE INCH AND NO SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES, TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY ACROSS THE
AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS 925/850
MB TEMPS AND THICKNESSES DECREASE INTO TUESDAY. USED A BLEND OF
MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB TEMPS FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WHICH ENDS UP BEING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB: A LARGE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN LATE THIS
WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES: ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY WARMING TO
NEAR NORMAL THIS COMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/28 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE 12Z/28 GFS
MOS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN THEREAFTER (FRIDAY ONWARD)
THE 1522Z/28 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE FOR ALL ELEMENTS EXCEPT APPLIED
THE WARMER 12Z/28 MEXMOS TEMPS. ALL THIS WAS CHECKED AGAINST THE
12Z/28 ECMWF TO ENSURE WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK (BARRING MIDDAY OVC
SKIES AND RAIN) WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2METER
TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE WAS CHECKED
AGAINST THE 09Z/28 SREF POPS FOR .01 IN 3 HRS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY
AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/28 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05 .


THE DAILIES...
IT SORT OF LOOKS LIKE WE`RE PRIMARILY IN A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
REGION THIS 6 DAY PERIOD AND NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH RAIN.

BASICALLY FOR NOW ITS A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER FORECAST THIS 6 DAY
PERIOD.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LATE DAY OR EVENING CONVECTION NE PA
AND NW NJ LATER IN THE WEEK BUT FOR NOW IS CHANCEY AND LOW
CONFIDENCE.

AS FOR THE LURKING QUASI STATIONARY ALONG THE COAST... IT MAY DRIFT
CLOSER TO THE SHORE BY THE WEEKEND AS A WARM FRONT WITH ITS
CONVECTION POSSIBLY SPREADING ASHORE BUT CONFIDENCE FOR THIS
SCENARIO IS ALSO BELOW AVERAGE.

IT DOES APPEAR THIS QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE AND AS IT DOES...HIGHER HUMIDITY SHOULD SLOWLY RETURN TO
THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES AND POPS AS DESCRIBED ABOVE IN THE FORECAST BASIS.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT
AND INTO TUESDAY. A LINE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE
SHOWERS/THUNDER WILL DISSIPATE/WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA THIS
EVENING, HOWEVER, WE HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO SHOWER GROUP FOR THE
DELAWARE VALLEY TAFS THIS EVENING, AND ENDED UP ADDING A TEMPO
THUNDERSTORM GROUP FOR ABE/RDG THIS EVENING. IT`S POSSIBLE THAT
VSBYS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO 5SM OR LESS, MAINLY FOR ABE/RDG, SO ADDED
IT IN FOR THESE TWO SITES. THE REST WERE LESS CONFIDENT, SO LEFT
THEM OUT FOR NOW.

WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING 20-25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDOWN,
THEN THE GUSTS SHOULD DROP OFF, AND WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS MAY BEGIN
SWITCHING TO WEST OR SOUTHWEST AGAIN BY LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING, AND A SEABREEZE MAY FORM ALONG THE COAST BY THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON OCCURRENCE. PATCHY IFR FOG OR
STRATUS IS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT,

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE DELAWARE BAY AND THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WAS EXTENDED THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AS WINDS ARE GUSTING AROUND 25-30 KNOTS NOW, AND SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH, THE GUSTS WILL SWITCH FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST
AND DROP OFF SLIGHT, AND SEAS SHOULD LOWER AS WELL. THE SEAS MAY
REMAIN LONGER ON THE NORTHERN WATERS A FEW MORE HOURS, SO WE LEAVE
THE NORTHERN HALF ENDING AT 6 AM TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.  GOOD WEATHER FOR
BEING ON THE WATERS.

WE ARE MONITORING ONE MODELS OPERATIONAL RUN DEPICTION OF A TROPICAL
SYSTEM IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN FOR NEXT WEEK BUT THE ECMWF
OPERATIONAL VERSION STILL DOESNT HAVE IT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT THIS EVENING FOR
 ANZ430- 431-452>455.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450-451.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 342
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON 342
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON 342
LONG TERM...DRAG/ROBERTSON 342
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 342
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON 342






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281907
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
307 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER CURRENT SHORTWAVE PASSES EAST THIS EVENING LEFTOVER UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL END IN THE RIDGES. THEN A QUITE COOL OVERNIGHT WITH
RECORD LOWS BEING CHALLENGED ACROSS THE REGION. THE RECORD LOW IN
PITTSBURGH FOR JULY 29TH IS 52 SET IN 1982. MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR TUESDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH COLD AIR
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ONCE AGAIN MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOOKS LIKE OCTOBER
IN JULY WITH DEEP CLOSED LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA NEARLY
STATIONARY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING UNDERNEATH IT. BEST SHOWER
CHANCES WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST.
BULK OF SHOWERS THURSDAY SHOULD BE DIURNAL AND CONFINED TO THE
I-80 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPR TROF WL SET UP ACRS THE ERN CONUS THRU THE LONG TERM PD. SVRL
WK SHRTWVS WL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF...BUT WITH LMTD AVAIL DEEP
MOISTURE EXP MAINLY DIURNAL LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS EACH DAY. TEMPS WL
AVG NR OR JUST BLO SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ADVNG ERN GT LKS LOW PRES WL WDSPRD BRING MVFR SC AND A NMRS SHWRS
TO THE RGN THRU THIS AFTN...ALG WITH GUSTY W-NW WNDS. LINGERING VFR
SC/DIURNAL CU IS EXPD AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TNGT INTO TUE.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281907
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
307 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER CURRENT SHORTWAVE PASSES EAST THIS EVENING LEFTOVER UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL END IN THE RIDGES. THEN A QUITE COOL OVERNIGHT WITH
RECORD LOWS BEING CHALLENGED ACROSS THE REGION. THE RECORD LOW IN
PITTSBURGH FOR JULY 29TH IS 52 SET IN 1982. MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR TUESDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH COLD AIR
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ONCE AGAIN MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOOKS LIKE OCTOBER
IN JULY WITH DEEP CLOSED LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA NEARLY
STATIONARY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING UNDERNEATH IT. BEST SHOWER
CHANCES WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST.
BULK OF SHOWERS THURSDAY SHOULD BE DIURNAL AND CONFINED TO THE
I-80 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPR TROF WL SET UP ACRS THE ERN CONUS THRU THE LONG TERM PD. SVRL
WK SHRTWVS WL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF...BUT WITH LMTD AVAIL DEEP
MOISTURE EXP MAINLY DIURNAL LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS EACH DAY. TEMPS WL
AVG NR OR JUST BLO SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ADVNG ERN GT LKS LOW PRES WL WDSPRD BRING MVFR SC AND A NMRS SHWRS
TO THE RGN THRU THIS AFTN...ALG WITH GUSTY W-NW WNDS. LINGERING VFR
SC/DIURNAL CU IS EXPD AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TNGT INTO TUE.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281907
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
307 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER CURRENT SHORTWAVE PASSES EAST THIS EVENING LEFTOVER UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL END IN THE RIDGES. THEN A QUITE COOL OVERNIGHT WITH
RECORD LOWS BEING CHALLENGED ACROSS THE REGION. THE RECORD LOW IN
PITTSBURGH FOR JULY 29TH IS 52 SET IN 1982. MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR TUESDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH COLD AIR
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ONCE AGAIN MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOOKS LIKE OCTOBER
IN JULY WITH DEEP CLOSED LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA NEARLY
STATIONARY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING UNDERNEATH IT. BEST SHOWER
CHANCES WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST.
BULK OF SHOWERS THURSDAY SHOULD BE DIURNAL AND CONFINED TO THE
I-80 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPR TROF WL SET UP ACRS THE ERN CONUS THRU THE LONG TERM PD. SVRL
WK SHRTWVS WL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF...BUT WITH LMTD AVAIL DEEP
MOISTURE EXP MAINLY DIURNAL LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS EACH DAY. TEMPS WL
AVG NR OR JUST BLO SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ADVNG ERN GT LKS LOW PRES WL WDSPRD BRING MVFR SC AND A NMRS SHWRS
TO THE RGN THRU THIS AFTN...ALG WITH GUSTY W-NW WNDS. LINGERING VFR
SC/DIURNAL CU IS EXPD AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TNGT INTO TUE.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281907
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
307 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER CURRENT SHORTWAVE PASSES EAST THIS EVENING LEFTOVER UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL END IN THE RIDGES. THEN A QUITE COOL OVERNIGHT WITH
RECORD LOWS BEING CHALLENGED ACROSS THE REGION. THE RECORD LOW IN
PITTSBURGH FOR JULY 29TH IS 52 SET IN 1982. MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR TUESDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH COLD AIR
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ONCE AGAIN MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOOKS LIKE OCTOBER
IN JULY WITH DEEP CLOSED LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA NEARLY
STATIONARY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING UNDERNEATH IT. BEST SHOWER
CHANCES WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST.
BULK OF SHOWERS THURSDAY SHOULD BE DIURNAL AND CONFINED TO THE
I-80 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPR TROF WL SET UP ACRS THE ERN CONUS THRU THE LONG TERM PD. SVRL
WK SHRTWVS WL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF...BUT WITH LMTD AVAIL DEEP
MOISTURE EXP MAINLY DIURNAL LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS EACH DAY. TEMPS WL
AVG NR OR JUST BLO SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ADVNG ERN GT LKS LOW PRES WL WDSPRD BRING MVFR SC AND A NMRS SHWRS
TO THE RGN THRU THIS AFTN...ALG WITH GUSTY W-NW WNDS. LINGERING VFR
SC/DIURNAL CU IS EXPD AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TNGT INTO TUE.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








  [top]

000
FXUS61 KLWX 281840
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
240 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. DRIER WEATHER WILL
MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR
MIDWEEK... BRINGING COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TODAY AND
DEWPTS HAVE DROPPED TO THE 50S WITH A FEW LOW 60S NEAR THE BAY. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY HAS LED TO STRATO CU CONDITION ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS LED TO GUSTY W-NW
WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE BY LATE TONIGHT AND TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
LOW 50S IN THE HIGHLANDS TO THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE NRN PIEDMONT
AND SRN MD.

A UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION. NRLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE BRINGING UNSEASONABLE COOL TEMPS
TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. FCST MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE NEARS AND WINDS RELAX. FCST MIN TEMPS TUES NIGHT RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S IN THE MTNS TO THE UPPER 50S NEAR
INTERSTATE 95.

HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVES AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. TEMPS WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL BARELY REACHING 80 DEG.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE SETS UP WEAK RETURN FLOW FOR THURSDAY AS
LARGE COLD-CORE UPPER  LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO HUDSON BAY
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. MARINE WEDGE LOOKS TO
BE IN PLACE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AT THE SURFACE WHILE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO DRAW IN MORE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. WEAK VORTS
IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
FORECAST FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS POSITIVELY TILTED SHORE WAVE TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. ASSOCIATED WEAK COOL FRONT LOOKS
TO PUSH THROUGH OR STALL FROM 00 TO 12Z SUNDAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
LOOKS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER MARGINAL TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL MAKE SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED HOWEVER HEAVY RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GUSTY NW WINDS 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KTS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET WITH NW WINDS
5-10KTS OCCURING OVERNIGHT. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE NEAR
THE TERMINALS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS RELAX TUESDAY
NIGHT AND PATCHY FOG MAY IMPACT CHO-MRB EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL DRAW IN WARMER AND MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL RESULT
IN DAILY CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY WHILE NW WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS PERSIST ON THE WATERS. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE WATERS
TODAY. NRN PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DROP LATE TONIGHT AS MIXING
LESSENS ON THE SMALLER ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. NRLY WINDS 5-10 KTS EXPECTED TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY ON THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL DRAW IN WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
DAILY CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT. SOUTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...AEB
AVIATION...HAS/AEB
MARINE...HAS/AEB








000
FXUS61 KLWX 281840
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
240 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. DRIER WEATHER WILL
MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR
MIDWEEK... BRINGING COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TODAY AND
DEWPTS HAVE DROPPED TO THE 50S WITH A FEW LOW 60S NEAR THE BAY. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY HAS LED TO STRATO CU CONDITION ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS LED TO GUSTY W-NW
WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE BY LATE TONIGHT AND TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
LOW 50S IN THE HIGHLANDS TO THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE NRN PIEDMONT
AND SRN MD.

A UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION. NRLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE BRINGING UNSEASONABLE COOL TEMPS
TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. FCST MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE NEARS AND WINDS RELAX. FCST MIN TEMPS TUES NIGHT RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S IN THE MTNS TO THE UPPER 50S NEAR
INTERSTATE 95.

HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVES AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. TEMPS WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL BARELY REACHING 80 DEG.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE SETS UP WEAK RETURN FLOW FOR THURSDAY AS
LARGE COLD-CORE UPPER  LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO HUDSON BAY
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. MARINE WEDGE LOOKS TO
BE IN PLACE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AT THE SURFACE WHILE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO DRAW IN MORE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. WEAK VORTS
IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
FORECAST FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS POSITIVELY TILTED SHORE WAVE TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. ASSOCIATED WEAK COOL FRONT LOOKS
TO PUSH THROUGH OR STALL FROM 00 TO 12Z SUNDAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
LOOKS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER MARGINAL TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL MAKE SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED HOWEVER HEAVY RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GUSTY NW WINDS 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KTS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET WITH NW WINDS
5-10KTS OCCURING OVERNIGHT. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE NEAR
THE TERMINALS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS RELAX TUESDAY
NIGHT AND PATCHY FOG MAY IMPACT CHO-MRB EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL DRAW IN WARMER AND MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL RESULT
IN DAILY CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY WHILE NW WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS PERSIST ON THE WATERS. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE WATERS
TODAY. NRN PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DROP LATE TONIGHT AS MIXING
LESSENS ON THE SMALLER ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. NRLY WINDS 5-10 KTS EXPECTED TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY ON THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL DRAW IN WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
DAILY CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT. SOUTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...AEB
AVIATION...HAS/AEB
MARINE...HAS/AEB







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281752
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
152 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN STALLS OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ACTUAL SFC COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING INTO CNTRL VA AND NC LATE THIS
MORNG...AS BREEZY WEST WINDS RIGHT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WERE
DROPPING DWPTS INTO THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
TWD THE CST THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG. WILL MAINTAIN A SLGT CHC
FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS OVER FAR SE VA/NE NC...AS THE FRONT MAY
INTERACT WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY.

A WLY 80-90 KT JET STREAK NOSING INTO CNTRL VA THIS AFTN WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SUBSIDENCE OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW
DOWNSLOPE DRYING TO ENDURE AND RESULT IN BREEZY WEST WINDS ARND 20
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. THE WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE NICELY WHILE DRIVING DWPTS DOWN DRAMATICALLY
(MID 50S NW TO LWR 60S SE)...AS COMPARED TO THE PAST WEEK OR SO.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S...UNDER A MOSTLY TO
PARTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE COAST THIS EVENING. SINCE MOST
SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTN SHOULD COME TO AN END BY SUNRISE OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. A COOLER AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS
AHEAD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S NW TO UPPER 60S SE AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
LIGHT NORTH WINDS DEVELOP BY TUESDAY AND WEAK CAA IS ANTICIPATED.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED AFTN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG CHES
BAY INTO FAR SE VA/NE NC AS THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SFC LOW
LINGERING ALONG THE NOW STALLED CAROLINA COASTAL FRONT. POPS ARE
CAPPED FROM 15-20 PERCENT AT BEST. TEMPS WILL FEEL COOL AND
COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER
70S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S INLAND/MID-UPPER 60S AT IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION WED/WED NIGHT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW-MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF OVR THE MID ATLC REGION WED NGT...WILL
RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND DEEPEN THU THRU SUN.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OFF THE MID ATLC CST WED NGT INTO
FRI...WILL DRIFT BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI THRU SUN. FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR WED NGT INTO FRI...THEN INCREASE TO SLGT CHC
OR CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT THRU SUN. STILL FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WED NGT
AND THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY/LO LVL MOIST RETURNS
FOR FRI THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID
80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S
THU MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...DEEP WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO NW/N BY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WAS RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRATOCU/MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THIS SHOULD LARGELY CLEAR THIS
EVENING AND REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST...ON TUESDAY.
WINDS BECOME N/NE ON TUESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE
LATE TIN THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO INCLUDE THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH 08Z TUESDAY. WINDS DURING THE AFTN WILL
OCCASIONALLY GUST TO SCA. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE WINDS EARLY
THIS EVENING BEFORE A NW SURGE DEVELOPS TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A CDFNT PUSHES ACROSS THE MID ATLC WTRS BY LT THIS
AFTN/EVE...THEN WELL E OFF THE CST BY LATE TNGT/EARLY TUE. SURGE
IN SPEEDS ATTM W/ WSW WNDS...RESULTING IN LO END SCA FOR THE
BAY/PORTION OF RIVERS. WNDS (BECOME) W TDA...XPCG SPEEDS TO WANE
THIS AFTN/EVE...THEN BECOME NW AND N TNGT INTO TUE MRNG. VRB
WINDS AOB 10 KT XCPD WED THRU THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD/TMG
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...ALB/LSA







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281752
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
152 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN STALLS OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ACTUAL SFC COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING INTO CNTRL VA AND NC LATE THIS
MORNG...AS BREEZY WEST WINDS RIGHT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WERE
DROPPING DWPTS INTO THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
TWD THE CST THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG. WILL MAINTAIN A SLGT CHC
FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS OVER FAR SE VA/NE NC...AS THE FRONT MAY
INTERACT WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY.

A WLY 80-90 KT JET STREAK NOSING INTO CNTRL VA THIS AFTN WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SUBSIDENCE OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW
DOWNSLOPE DRYING TO ENDURE AND RESULT IN BREEZY WEST WINDS ARND 20
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. THE WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE NICELY WHILE DRIVING DWPTS DOWN DRAMATICALLY
(MID 50S NW TO LWR 60S SE)...AS COMPARED TO THE PAST WEEK OR SO.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S...UNDER A MOSTLY TO
PARTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE COAST THIS EVENING. SINCE MOST
SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTN SHOULD COME TO AN END BY SUNRISE OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. A COOLER AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS
AHEAD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S NW TO UPPER 60S SE AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
LIGHT NORTH WINDS DEVELOP BY TUESDAY AND WEAK CAA IS ANTICIPATED.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED AFTN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG CHES
BAY INTO FAR SE VA/NE NC AS THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SFC LOW
LINGERING ALONG THE NOW STALLED CAROLINA COASTAL FRONT. POPS ARE
CAPPED FROM 15-20 PERCENT AT BEST. TEMPS WILL FEEL COOL AND
COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER
70S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S INLAND/MID-UPPER 60S AT IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION WED/WED NIGHT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW-MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF OVR THE MID ATLC REGION WED NGT...WILL
RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND DEEPEN THU THRU SUN.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OFF THE MID ATLC CST WED NGT INTO
FRI...WILL DRIFT BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI THRU SUN. FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR WED NGT INTO FRI...THEN INCREASE TO SLGT CHC
OR CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT THRU SUN. STILL FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WED NGT
AND THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY/LO LVL MOIST RETURNS
FOR FRI THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID
80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S
THU MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...DEEP WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO NW/N BY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WAS RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRATOCU/MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THIS SHOULD LARGELY CLEAR THIS
EVENING AND REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST...ON TUESDAY.
WINDS BECOME N/NE ON TUESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE
LATE TIN THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO INCLUDE THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH 08Z TUESDAY. WINDS DURING THE AFTN WILL
OCCASIONALLY GUST TO SCA. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE WINDS EARLY
THIS EVENING BEFORE A NW SURGE DEVELOPS TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A CDFNT PUSHES ACROSS THE MID ATLC WTRS BY LT THIS
AFTN/EVE...THEN WELL E OFF THE CST BY LATE TNGT/EARLY TUE. SURGE
IN SPEEDS ATTM W/ WSW WNDS...RESULTING IN LO END SCA FOR THE
BAY/PORTION OF RIVERS. WNDS (BECOME) W TDA...XPCG SPEEDS TO WANE
THIS AFTN/EVE...THEN BECOME NW AND N TNGT INTO TUE MRNG. VRB
WINDS AOB 10 KT XCPD WED THRU THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD/TMG
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...ALB/LSA







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281752
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
152 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN STALLS OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ACTUAL SFC COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING INTO CNTRL VA AND NC LATE THIS
MORNG...AS BREEZY WEST WINDS RIGHT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WERE
DROPPING DWPTS INTO THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
TWD THE CST THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG. WILL MAINTAIN A SLGT CHC
FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS OVER FAR SE VA/NE NC...AS THE FRONT MAY
INTERACT WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY.

A WLY 80-90 KT JET STREAK NOSING INTO CNTRL VA THIS AFTN WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SUBSIDENCE OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW
DOWNSLOPE DRYING TO ENDURE AND RESULT IN BREEZY WEST WINDS ARND 20
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. THE WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE NICELY WHILE DRIVING DWPTS DOWN DRAMATICALLY
(MID 50S NW TO LWR 60S SE)...AS COMPARED TO THE PAST WEEK OR SO.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S...UNDER A MOSTLY TO
PARTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE COAST THIS EVENING. SINCE MOST
SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTN SHOULD COME TO AN END BY SUNRISE OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. A COOLER AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS
AHEAD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S NW TO UPPER 60S SE AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
LIGHT NORTH WINDS DEVELOP BY TUESDAY AND WEAK CAA IS ANTICIPATED.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED AFTN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG CHES
BAY INTO FAR SE VA/NE NC AS THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SFC LOW
LINGERING ALONG THE NOW STALLED CAROLINA COASTAL FRONT. POPS ARE
CAPPED FROM 15-20 PERCENT AT BEST. TEMPS WILL FEEL COOL AND
COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER
70S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S INLAND/MID-UPPER 60S AT IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION WED/WED NIGHT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW-MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF OVR THE MID ATLC REGION WED NGT...WILL
RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND DEEPEN THU THRU SUN.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OFF THE MID ATLC CST WED NGT INTO
FRI...WILL DRIFT BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI THRU SUN. FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR WED NGT INTO FRI...THEN INCREASE TO SLGT CHC
OR CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT THRU SUN. STILL FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WED NGT
AND THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY/LO LVL MOIST RETURNS
FOR FRI THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID
80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S
THU MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...DEEP WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO NW/N BY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WAS RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRATOCU/MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THIS SHOULD LARGELY CLEAR THIS
EVENING AND REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST...ON TUESDAY.
WINDS BECOME N/NE ON TUESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE
LATE TIN THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO INCLUDE THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH 08Z TUESDAY. WINDS DURING THE AFTN WILL
OCCASIONALLY GUST TO SCA. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE WINDS EARLY
THIS EVENING BEFORE A NW SURGE DEVELOPS TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A CDFNT PUSHES ACROSS THE MID ATLC WTRS BY LT THIS
AFTN/EVE...THEN WELL E OFF THE CST BY LATE TNGT/EARLY TUE. SURGE
IN SPEEDS ATTM W/ WSW WNDS...RESULTING IN LO END SCA FOR THE
BAY/PORTION OF RIVERS. WNDS (BECOME) W TDA...XPCG SPEEDS TO WANE
THIS AFTN/EVE...THEN BECOME NW AND N TNGT INTO TUE MRNG. VRB
WINDS AOB 10 KT XCPD WED THRU THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD/TMG
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...ALB/LSA







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281752
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
152 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN STALLS OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ACTUAL SFC COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING INTO CNTRL VA AND NC LATE THIS
MORNG...AS BREEZY WEST WINDS RIGHT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WERE
DROPPING DWPTS INTO THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
TWD THE CST THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG. WILL MAINTAIN A SLGT CHC
FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS OVER FAR SE VA/NE NC...AS THE FRONT MAY
INTERACT WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY.

A WLY 80-90 KT JET STREAK NOSING INTO CNTRL VA THIS AFTN WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SUBSIDENCE OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW
DOWNSLOPE DRYING TO ENDURE AND RESULT IN BREEZY WEST WINDS ARND 20
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. THE WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE NICELY WHILE DRIVING DWPTS DOWN DRAMATICALLY
(MID 50S NW TO LWR 60S SE)...AS COMPARED TO THE PAST WEEK OR SO.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S...UNDER A MOSTLY TO
PARTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE COAST THIS EVENING. SINCE MOST
SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTN SHOULD COME TO AN END BY SUNRISE OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. A COOLER AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS
AHEAD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S NW TO UPPER 60S SE AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
LIGHT NORTH WINDS DEVELOP BY TUESDAY AND WEAK CAA IS ANTICIPATED.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED AFTN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG CHES
BAY INTO FAR SE VA/NE NC AS THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SFC LOW
LINGERING ALONG THE NOW STALLED CAROLINA COASTAL FRONT. POPS ARE
CAPPED FROM 15-20 PERCENT AT BEST. TEMPS WILL FEEL COOL AND
COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER
70S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S INLAND/MID-UPPER 60S AT IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION WED/WED NIGHT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW-MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF OVR THE MID ATLC REGION WED NGT...WILL
RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND DEEPEN THU THRU SUN.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OFF THE MID ATLC CST WED NGT INTO
FRI...WILL DRIFT BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI THRU SUN. FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR WED NGT INTO FRI...THEN INCREASE TO SLGT CHC
OR CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT THRU SUN. STILL FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WED NGT
AND THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY/LO LVL MOIST RETURNS
FOR FRI THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID
80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S
THU MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...DEEP WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO NW/N BY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WAS RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRATOCU/MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THIS SHOULD LARGELY CLEAR THIS
EVENING AND REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST...ON TUESDAY.
WINDS BECOME N/NE ON TUESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE
LATE TIN THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO INCLUDE THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH 08Z TUESDAY. WINDS DURING THE AFTN WILL
OCCASIONALLY GUST TO SCA. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE WINDS EARLY
THIS EVENING BEFORE A NW SURGE DEVELOPS TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A CDFNT PUSHES ACROSS THE MID ATLC WTRS BY LT THIS
AFTN/EVE...THEN WELL E OFF THE CST BY LATE TNGT/EARLY TUE. SURGE
IN SPEEDS ATTM W/ WSW WNDS...RESULTING IN LO END SCA FOR THE
BAY/PORTION OF RIVERS. WNDS (BECOME) W TDA...XPCG SPEEDS TO WANE
THIS AFTN/EVE...THEN BECOME NW AND N TNGT INTO TUE MRNG. VRB
WINDS AOB 10 KT XCPD WED THRU THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD/TMG
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...ALB/LSA







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281713
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
113 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE REMOVED THUNDER FROM FORECAST AS SHOWERS NOT REACHING DEEP
ENOUGH ALOFT FOR THUNDER TO BE WORTH MENTIONING. MAIN BAND OF
SHOWERS WITH CROSSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WORK
SOUTHEAST ACROSS REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AFTER THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES EAST THIS EVENING LEFTOVER UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL END IN THE
RIDGES. THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AT PITTSBURGH FOR JULY
28TH IS 72 SET IN 1875. THEN A QUITE COOL OVERNIGHT WITH RECORD
LOWS BEING CHALLENGED ACROSS THE REGION. THE RECORD LOW IN
PITTSBURGH FOR JULY 29TH IS 52 SET IN 1982.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST
DURING MIDWEEK...AS UPPER LOW CENTER SINKS SOUTHWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN END OF HUDSON BAY. ALTHOUGH WEAK VORT MAXES WILL BE
ROTATING THROUGH AND KEEPING THE TROUGH IN PLACE...H500 HEIGHTS
WILL BE ON A SLOW INCREASE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODERATING TREND
IN TEMPERATURES...FROM READINGS AROUND 70 ON TUESDAY TO THE MID 70S
ON THURSDAY.

THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW DIURNALLY-FORCED ISOLATED
SHRA EACH AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO NW PA ON
TUESDAY AS MOISTURE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW. ON WEDNESDAY MOISTURE
IS BETTER WITH SHORTWAVE AND CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED IN MOST
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
H500 HEIGHTS RISE A BIT MORE FRIDAY..ALLOWING A FEW LOCATIONS TO
TOUCH THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS. ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS ONCE
AGAIN...PARTICULARLY IN THE NW. MODELS THEN HINT THAT THE TROUGH
GETS REINFORCED SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND...KNOCKING TEMPERATURES
BACK A COUPLE OF DEGREES. BETTER SHOWER CHANCES RETURN AS
WELL...WITH CHANCE POPS EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY AS MINOR WAVES ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROUGH. LEFT THUNDER OUT FOR NOW BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
OVER THE WEEKEND. ALL IN ALL...NO MAJOR SYSTEMS OR SUMMER HEAT
FORESEEN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ADVNG ERN GT LKS LOW PRES WL WDSPRD BRING MVFR SC AND A NMRS SHWRS
TO THE RGN THRU THIS AFTN...ALG WITH GUSTY W-NW WNDS. LINGERING VFR
SC/DIURNAL CU IS EXPD AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TNGT INTO TUE.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$













000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281713
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
113 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE REMOVED THUNDER FROM FORECAST AS SHOWERS NOT REACHING DEEP
ENOUGH ALOFT FOR THUNDER TO BE WORTH MENTIONING. MAIN BAND OF
SHOWERS WITH CROSSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WORK
SOUTHEAST ACROSS REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AFTER THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES EAST THIS EVENING LEFTOVER UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL END IN THE
RIDGES. THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AT PITTSBURGH FOR JULY
28TH IS 72 SET IN 1875. THEN A QUITE COOL OVERNIGHT WITH RECORD
LOWS BEING CHALLENGED ACROSS THE REGION. THE RECORD LOW IN
PITTSBURGH FOR JULY 29TH IS 52 SET IN 1982.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST
DURING MIDWEEK...AS UPPER LOW CENTER SINKS SOUTHWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN END OF HUDSON BAY. ALTHOUGH WEAK VORT MAXES WILL BE
ROTATING THROUGH AND KEEPING THE TROUGH IN PLACE...H500 HEIGHTS
WILL BE ON A SLOW INCREASE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODERATING TREND
IN TEMPERATURES...FROM READINGS AROUND 70 ON TUESDAY TO THE MID 70S
ON THURSDAY.

THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW DIURNALLY-FORCED ISOLATED
SHRA EACH AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO NW PA ON
TUESDAY AS MOISTURE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW. ON WEDNESDAY MOISTURE
IS BETTER WITH SHORTWAVE AND CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED IN MOST
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
H500 HEIGHTS RISE A BIT MORE FRIDAY..ALLOWING A FEW LOCATIONS TO
TOUCH THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS. ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS ONCE
AGAIN...PARTICULARLY IN THE NW. MODELS THEN HINT THAT THE TROUGH
GETS REINFORCED SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND...KNOCKING TEMPERATURES
BACK A COUPLE OF DEGREES. BETTER SHOWER CHANCES RETURN AS
WELL...WITH CHANCE POPS EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY AS MINOR WAVES ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROUGH. LEFT THUNDER OUT FOR NOW BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
OVER THE WEEKEND. ALL IN ALL...NO MAJOR SYSTEMS OR SUMMER HEAT
FORESEEN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ADVNG ERN GT LKS LOW PRES WL WDSPRD BRING MVFR SC AND A NMRS SHWRS
TO THE RGN THRU THIS AFTN...ALG WITH GUSTY W-NW WNDS. LINGERING VFR
SC/DIURNAL CU IS EXPD AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TNGT INTO TUE.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$













000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281713
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
113 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE REMOVED THUNDER FROM FORECAST AS SHOWERS NOT REACHING DEEP
ENOUGH ALOFT FOR THUNDER TO BE WORTH MENTIONING. MAIN BAND OF
SHOWERS WITH CROSSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WORK
SOUTHEAST ACROSS REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AFTER THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES EAST THIS EVENING LEFTOVER UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL END IN THE
RIDGES. THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AT PITTSBURGH FOR JULY
28TH IS 72 SET IN 1875. THEN A QUITE COOL OVERNIGHT WITH RECORD
LOWS BEING CHALLENGED ACROSS THE REGION. THE RECORD LOW IN
PITTSBURGH FOR JULY 29TH IS 52 SET IN 1982.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST
DURING MIDWEEK...AS UPPER LOW CENTER SINKS SOUTHWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN END OF HUDSON BAY. ALTHOUGH WEAK VORT MAXES WILL BE
ROTATING THROUGH AND KEEPING THE TROUGH IN PLACE...H500 HEIGHTS
WILL BE ON A SLOW INCREASE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODERATING TREND
IN TEMPERATURES...FROM READINGS AROUND 70 ON TUESDAY TO THE MID 70S
ON THURSDAY.

THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW DIURNALLY-FORCED ISOLATED
SHRA EACH AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO NW PA ON
TUESDAY AS MOISTURE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW. ON WEDNESDAY MOISTURE
IS BETTER WITH SHORTWAVE AND CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED IN MOST
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
H500 HEIGHTS RISE A BIT MORE FRIDAY..ALLOWING A FEW LOCATIONS TO
TOUCH THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS. ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS ONCE
AGAIN...PARTICULARLY IN THE NW. MODELS THEN HINT THAT THE TROUGH
GETS REINFORCED SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND...KNOCKING TEMPERATURES
BACK A COUPLE OF DEGREES. BETTER SHOWER CHANCES RETURN AS
WELL...WITH CHANCE POPS EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY AS MINOR WAVES ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROUGH. LEFT THUNDER OUT FOR NOW BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
OVER THE WEEKEND. ALL IN ALL...NO MAJOR SYSTEMS OR SUMMER HEAT
FORESEEN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ADVNG ERN GT LKS LOW PRES WL WDSPRD BRING MVFR SC AND A NMRS SHWRS
TO THE RGN THRU THIS AFTN...ALG WITH GUSTY W-NW WNDS. LINGERING VFR
SC/DIURNAL CU IS EXPD AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TNGT INTO TUE.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$













000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281713
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
113 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE REMOVED THUNDER FROM FORECAST AS SHOWERS NOT REACHING DEEP
ENOUGH ALOFT FOR THUNDER TO BE WORTH MENTIONING. MAIN BAND OF
SHOWERS WITH CROSSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WORK
SOUTHEAST ACROSS REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AFTER THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES EAST THIS EVENING LEFTOVER UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL END IN THE
RIDGES. THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AT PITTSBURGH FOR JULY
28TH IS 72 SET IN 1875. THEN A QUITE COOL OVERNIGHT WITH RECORD
LOWS BEING CHALLENGED ACROSS THE REGION. THE RECORD LOW IN
PITTSBURGH FOR JULY 29TH IS 52 SET IN 1982.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST
DURING MIDWEEK...AS UPPER LOW CENTER SINKS SOUTHWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN END OF HUDSON BAY. ALTHOUGH WEAK VORT MAXES WILL BE
ROTATING THROUGH AND KEEPING THE TROUGH IN PLACE...H500 HEIGHTS
WILL BE ON A SLOW INCREASE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODERATING TREND
IN TEMPERATURES...FROM READINGS AROUND 70 ON TUESDAY TO THE MID 70S
ON THURSDAY.

THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW DIURNALLY-FORCED ISOLATED
SHRA EACH AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO NW PA ON
TUESDAY AS MOISTURE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW. ON WEDNESDAY MOISTURE
IS BETTER WITH SHORTWAVE AND CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED IN MOST
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
H500 HEIGHTS RISE A BIT MORE FRIDAY..ALLOWING A FEW LOCATIONS TO
TOUCH THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS. ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS ONCE
AGAIN...PARTICULARLY IN THE NW. MODELS THEN HINT THAT THE TROUGH
GETS REINFORCED SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND...KNOCKING TEMPERATURES
BACK A COUPLE OF DEGREES. BETTER SHOWER CHANCES RETURN AS
WELL...WITH CHANCE POPS EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY AS MINOR WAVES ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROUGH. LEFT THUNDER OUT FOR NOW BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
OVER THE WEEKEND. ALL IN ALL...NO MAJOR SYSTEMS OR SUMMER HEAT
FORESEEN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ADVNG ERN GT LKS LOW PRES WL WDSPRD BRING MVFR SC AND A NMRS SHWRS
TO THE RGN THRU THIS AFTN...ALG WITH GUSTY W-NW WNDS. LINGERING VFR
SC/DIURNAL CU IS EXPD AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TNGT INTO TUE.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$













000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281442
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1042 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN STALLS OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ACTUAL SFC COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING INTO CNTRL VA AND NC LATE THIS
MORNG...AS BREEZY WEST WINDS RIGHT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WERE
DROPPING DWPTS INTO THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
TWD THE CST THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG. WILL MAINTAIN A SLGT CHC
FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS OVER FAR SE VA/NE NC...AS THE FRONT MAY
INTERACT WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY.

A WLY 80-90 KT JET STREAK NOSING INTO CNTRL VA THIS AFTN WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SUBSIDENCE OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW
DOWNSLOPE DRYING TO ENDURE AND RESULT IN BREEZY WEST WINDS ARND 20
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. THE WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE NICELY WHILE DRIVING DWPTS DOWN DRAMATICALLY
(MID 50S NW TO LWR 60S SE)...AS COMPARED TO THE PAST WEEK OR SO.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S...UNDER A MOSTLY TO
PARTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE COAST THIS EVENING. SINCE MOST
SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTN SHOULD COME TO AN END BY SUNRISE OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. A COOLER AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS
AHEAD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S NW TO UPPER 60S SE AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
LIGHT NORTH WINDS DEVELOP BY TUESDAY AND WEAK CAA IS ANTICIPATED.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED AFTN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG CHES
BAY INTO FAR SE VA/NE NC AS THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SFC LOW
LINGERING ALONG THE NOW STALLED CAROLINA COASTAL FRONT. POPS ARE
CAPPED FROM 15-20 PERCENT AT BEST. TEMPS WILL FEEL COOL AND
COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER
70S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S INLAND/MID-UPPER 60S AT IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION WED/WED NIGHT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW-MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF OVR THE MID ATLC REGION WED NGT...WILL
RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND DEEPEN THU THRU SUN.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OFF THE MID ATLC CST WED NGT INTO
FRI...WILL DRIFT BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI THRU SUN. FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR WED NGT INTO FRI...THEN INCREASE TO SLGT CHC
OR CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT THRU SUN. STILL FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WED NGT
AND THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY/LO LVL MOIST RETURNS
FOR FRI THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID
80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S
THU MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DP LYRD WSW FLO OVR THE MDATLC RGN HAS RESULTED IN ANY CONVECTION
EXITING THE MTNS OVRNGT TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES E TWD THE CSTL
PLAIN. NOT RULING OUT ISOLD SHRA/TSTM THROUGH EARLY/MID
MRNG...MNLY INVOF SE VA/NE NC...(MAYBE AGN LT AFTN/EARLY EVE FAR
SE VA/CSTL NE NC)...THOUGH PCPN CHCS LWRG. VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH
TDA...GUSTY W WNDS TO ABT 25 KT W/ LIMITED CLDNS. SFC CDFNT TO BE
OFF THE CST BY TNGT RESULTING IN WIND SHIFT TO NNW FOR
TNGT/TUE...ALG W/ ONLY SCT CLDNS (CONTD VFR CONDS).

DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST MIDWEEK. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG IS PSBL
NR SUNRISE BUT WIDESPREAD IFR NOT XPCD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A CDFNT PUSHES ACROSS THE MID ATLC WTRS BY LT THIS
AFTN/EVE...THEN WELL E OFF THE CST BY LATE TNGT/EARLY TUE. SURGE
IN SPEEDS ATTM W/ WSW WNDS...RESULTING IN LO END SCA FOR THE
BAY/PORTION OF RIVERS. WNDS (BECOME) W TDA...XPCG SPEEDS TO WANE
THIS AFTN/EVE...THEN BECOME NW AND N TNGT INTO TUE MRNG. VRB
WINDS AOB 10 KT XCPD WED THRU THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD/TMG
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281442
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1042 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN STALLS OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ACTUAL SFC COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING INTO CNTRL VA AND NC LATE THIS
MORNG...AS BREEZY WEST WINDS RIGHT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WERE
DROPPING DWPTS INTO THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
TWD THE CST THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG. WILL MAINTAIN A SLGT CHC
FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS OVER FAR SE VA/NE NC...AS THE FRONT MAY
INTERACT WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY.

A WLY 80-90 KT JET STREAK NOSING INTO CNTRL VA THIS AFTN WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SUBSIDENCE OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW
DOWNSLOPE DRYING TO ENDURE AND RESULT IN BREEZY WEST WINDS ARND 20
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. THE WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE NICELY WHILE DRIVING DWPTS DOWN DRAMATICALLY
(MID 50S NW TO LWR 60S SE)...AS COMPARED TO THE PAST WEEK OR SO.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S...UNDER A MOSTLY TO
PARTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE COAST THIS EVENING. SINCE MOST
SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTN SHOULD COME TO AN END BY SUNRISE OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. A COOLER AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS
AHEAD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S NW TO UPPER 60S SE AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
LIGHT NORTH WINDS DEVELOP BY TUESDAY AND WEAK CAA IS ANTICIPATED.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED AFTN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG CHES
BAY INTO FAR SE VA/NE NC AS THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SFC LOW
LINGERING ALONG THE NOW STALLED CAROLINA COASTAL FRONT. POPS ARE
CAPPED FROM 15-20 PERCENT AT BEST. TEMPS WILL FEEL COOL AND
COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER
70S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S INLAND/MID-UPPER 60S AT IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION WED/WED NIGHT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW-MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF OVR THE MID ATLC REGION WED NGT...WILL
RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND DEEPEN THU THRU SUN.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OFF THE MID ATLC CST WED NGT INTO
FRI...WILL DRIFT BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI THRU SUN. FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR WED NGT INTO FRI...THEN INCREASE TO SLGT CHC
OR CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT THRU SUN. STILL FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WED NGT
AND THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY/LO LVL MOIST RETURNS
FOR FRI THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID
80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S
THU MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DP LYRD WSW FLO OVR THE MDATLC RGN HAS RESULTED IN ANY CONVECTION
EXITING THE MTNS OVRNGT TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES E TWD THE CSTL
PLAIN. NOT RULING OUT ISOLD SHRA/TSTM THROUGH EARLY/MID
MRNG...MNLY INVOF SE VA/NE NC...(MAYBE AGN LT AFTN/EARLY EVE FAR
SE VA/CSTL NE NC)...THOUGH PCPN CHCS LWRG. VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH
TDA...GUSTY W WNDS TO ABT 25 KT W/ LIMITED CLDNS. SFC CDFNT TO BE
OFF THE CST BY TNGT RESULTING IN WIND SHIFT TO NNW FOR
TNGT/TUE...ALG W/ ONLY SCT CLDNS (CONTD VFR CONDS).

DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST MIDWEEK. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG IS PSBL
NR SUNRISE BUT WIDESPREAD IFR NOT XPCD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A CDFNT PUSHES ACROSS THE MID ATLC WTRS BY LT THIS
AFTN/EVE...THEN WELL E OFF THE CST BY LATE TNGT/EARLY TUE. SURGE
IN SPEEDS ATTM W/ WSW WNDS...RESULTING IN LO END SCA FOR THE
BAY/PORTION OF RIVERS. WNDS (BECOME) W TDA...XPCG SPEEDS TO WANE
THIS AFTN/EVE...THEN BECOME NW AND N TNGT INTO TUE MRNG. VRB
WINDS AOB 10 KT XCPD WED THRU THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD/TMG
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB






000
FXUS61 KPHI 281419
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1019 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND
TODAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY, AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OF
THE WEATHER FOR THROUGH THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE OCEAN WILL DRIFT BACK CLOSE TO THE COAST OVER
THE WEEKEND.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
INITIAL SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX HAS MOVED TO OUR NORTHEAST. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA NOW, AND ANOTHER MAY
DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE THE MAIN COLD FRONT
PROGRESSES ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL SPINNING TO OUR
NORTHWEST AS EVIDENT BY SATELLITE DATA WILL CONTINUE LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. IT WILL STILL BE NEARBY DURING THE
PEAK HEATING HOURS TO ALLOW FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS, AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION...ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS TODAY AS WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
FILTERING IN. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TAKE A WHILE TO RELAX LATER TONIGHT SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH DECOUPLING TO OCCUR...A WEAK AND SHALLOW INVERSION
MAY FORM ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS. CONTINUED MIXING SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING OFF THE TABLE TONIGHT,
THOUGH WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE CAN GIVE THE AIR
CONDITIONERS A BREAK. BLEND OF THE MET/MAV WAS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MOSTLY DRY START TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST, WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING LATER IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AS PW
VALUES DROP TO AN INCH OR LOWER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT MAY
RETURN TO 1-1.25 INCHES FOR THURSDAY AND NEAR 1.5 INCHES FOR
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION,
WHILE THE BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THERE AREA NO SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES THAT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK, BUT WITH THE TROUGH IN PLACE AND DAYTIME HEATING,
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH DAYTIME INSTABILITY TO CREATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. EACH
DAY THE CHANCES INCREASE SLIGHTLY AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE. HOWEVER,
WE DO NOT HAVE MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE PROBABILITY THROUGH
FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.

AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WE GET A MORE SOLID RETURN OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA AS PW VALUES REBOUND O 1.25-1.5 INCHES. WE ALSO HAVE
A BETTER CHANCE OF VORTICITY IMPULSES AFFECTING OUR AREA WITHIN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, AND WITH THE COASTAL FRONT TRYING TO PUSH BACK
CLOSER TO SHOWER, WE MAY HAVE A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION TO FORM.
THEREFORE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED ARE FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING THIS MORNING, WITH A FEW
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS OCCURRING NOW, MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS. ALL CIGS
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY MID-DAY AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH THE DAY.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS VEERING TOWARDS THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE
POSSIBLE...MOSTLY NORTH AND WEST OF PHL.

TONIGHT...VFR. SHOULD LOSE GUSTS BY LATE THIS EVENING BUT KEEP
HIGHER SUSTAINED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE BOTH AFTERNOONS, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...WE CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT FOR ALL OUR WATERS TODAY, THOUGH
IT MAY BE A TAD TOUGHER TO REACH THE 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
WATERS THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. SURFACE COLD FRONT NEARS FROM THE
WEST LATER TODAY AND WINDS SHIFT TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST. GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT...UPWARDS OF 25
KNOTS...BETTER CHANCE NORTH.

TONIGHT...EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT FOR OUR NORTHERN TWO ZONES
THROUGH TONIGHT WHERE THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS AND
BETTER VERTICAL TRANSPORT MAY STILL OCCUR. SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT
LONGER TO COME DOWN, EVEN ONCE THE WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY-FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING, SUBSIDING AND REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450-451.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/ROBERTSON






000
FXUS61 KLWX 281341
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
941 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. DRIER WEATHER WILL MOVE
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR MIDWEEK...
BRINGING COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TODAY WHILE A
SFC LOW DEEPENS AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS VT/NH/ME. A COLD FRONT IS
MOVING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC THIS MORNING AND DEWPTS ARE
DROPPING INTO THE 50S BEHIND IT. THE WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT HAS RESULTED IN WAVE CLOUDS ACROSS THE APPALACIANS. A FEW
SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ARE MIXED IN ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TODAY WITH W-NW
WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. FCST MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE MTNS TO THE LOW TO MID 80S IN
THE NRN PIEDMONT AND SRN MD.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE NORTH ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC RESULTING IN BKN CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON SIMILAR
TO A FALL DAY AND SCT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 66 IN VA AND INTERSTATE 50 IN MARYLAND. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE SHOWERS AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT LEADS TO STEEP LAPSE RATES BEHIND THE FRONT. NO SVR WEATHER
IS EXPECTED.

ACTIVITY WILL WANE AROUND SUNSET TONIGHT AND CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
IN COVERAGE BY LATE TONIGHT. FCST MIN TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
WITH THE UPPER 50S WEST OF I-95 TO THE LOW TO MID 60S IN SRN MD.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
JUL IS WINDING DOWN...AND FOR THE E CST IT WL DO SO UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UNUSUALLY LARGE UPR LVL TROF. THIS WL KEEP TEMPS
BLO NRML. XPCT TO SEE CLDS BRK UP DURG EVE HRS...M CLR OVRNGT AND
DURG THE MRNG..THEN A CU FIELD DVLP DURG THE AFTN..ESPECIALLY OVR
THE MTNS AND CLOSE TO THE PA BRDR.

LOWS IN THE 50S...L60S IN THE CITIES AND ALONG THE BAY. HIGHS
75-80. AT A TIME OF THE YR WHERE HIGHS CAN REACH THE U90S (HIGH
TEMPS 7/29/2011: DCA 104..BWI 101..IAD 103...ALL RECORDS). HOPEFULLY
WE`LL ALL GET A CHC TO GET OUTSIDE AND ENJOY THE UPCOMING WX.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE BACK WEST OF
THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
RE-ESTABLISHES ITS HOLD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES BACK/REDEVELOPS TO OUR WEST...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
INCREASING THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AS WELL AS THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND
WOULD SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THE LONG AND
PERSISTENT TRAJECTORY OF WIND OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDING ALONG
A STALLED OR SLOW-MOVING FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE FOR
SOME AFTN INSTABILITY RW TO DVLP. WINDS WL TURN TO THE NW W/ GUSTS
OVR 20 KT FM MID MRNG THRU LATE AFTN.

VFR CONDS XPCTD FOR MUCH OF THE WK AHD.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WINDS EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD FRONT NEARS AND CROSSES THE
WATERS. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE ON THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE WATERS TONIGHT.

NO PROBS FORESEEN THEREAFTER THRU THU.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540-541-543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...HAS
PREVIOUS...WOODY!/HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 281341
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
941 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. DRIER WEATHER WILL MOVE
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR MIDWEEK...
BRINGING COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TODAY WHILE A
SFC LOW DEEPENS AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS VT/NH/ME. A COLD FRONT IS
MOVING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC THIS MORNING AND DEWPTS ARE
DROPPING INTO THE 50S BEHIND IT. THE WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT HAS RESULTED IN WAVE CLOUDS ACROSS THE APPALACIANS. A FEW
SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ARE MIXED IN ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TODAY WITH W-NW
WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. FCST MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE MTNS TO THE LOW TO MID 80S IN
THE NRN PIEDMONT AND SRN MD.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE NORTH ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC RESULTING IN BKN CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON SIMILAR
TO A FALL DAY AND SCT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 66 IN VA AND INTERSTATE 50 IN MARYLAND. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE SHOWERS AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT LEADS TO STEEP LAPSE RATES BEHIND THE FRONT. NO SVR WEATHER
IS EXPECTED.

ACTIVITY WILL WANE AROUND SUNSET TONIGHT AND CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
IN COVERAGE BY LATE TONIGHT. FCST MIN TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
WITH THE UPPER 50S WEST OF I-95 TO THE LOW TO MID 60S IN SRN MD.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
JUL IS WINDING DOWN...AND FOR THE E CST IT WL DO SO UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UNUSUALLY LARGE UPR LVL TROF. THIS WL KEEP TEMPS
BLO NRML. XPCT TO SEE CLDS BRK UP DURG EVE HRS...M CLR OVRNGT AND
DURG THE MRNG..THEN A CU FIELD DVLP DURG THE AFTN..ESPECIALLY OVR
THE MTNS AND CLOSE TO THE PA BRDR.

LOWS IN THE 50S...L60S IN THE CITIES AND ALONG THE BAY. HIGHS
75-80. AT A TIME OF THE YR WHERE HIGHS CAN REACH THE U90S (HIGH
TEMPS 7/29/2011: DCA 104..BWI 101..IAD 103...ALL RECORDS). HOPEFULLY
WE`LL ALL GET A CHC TO GET OUTSIDE AND ENJOY THE UPCOMING WX.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE BACK WEST OF
THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
RE-ESTABLISHES ITS HOLD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES BACK/REDEVELOPS TO OUR WEST...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
INCREASING THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AS WELL AS THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND
WOULD SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THE LONG AND
PERSISTENT TRAJECTORY OF WIND OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDING ALONG
A STALLED OR SLOW-MOVING FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE FOR
SOME AFTN INSTABILITY RW TO DVLP. WINDS WL TURN TO THE NW W/ GUSTS
OVR 20 KT FM MID MRNG THRU LATE AFTN.

VFR CONDS XPCTD FOR MUCH OF THE WK AHD.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WINDS EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD FRONT NEARS AND CROSSES THE
WATERS. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE ON THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE WATERS TONIGHT.

NO PROBS FORESEEN THEREAFTER THRU THU.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540-541-543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...HAS
PREVIOUS...WOODY!/HTS








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281323
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
923 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE FELT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK WITH SURFACE LOW NOW INTO NEW YORK
STATE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHORTWAVE TO CROSS REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. MINOR ADJSUTMENTS TO GRIDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

SFC LOW PULLING AWAY EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT ITS
INFLUENCE WILL STILL REMAIN TODAY. ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE SFC
LOW ANOTHER MID-LEVEL VORT LOBE IS SWINGING DOWN FROM NEAR LAKE
ERIE. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE ON THE INCREASE CURRENTLY AND WILL
BEGIN TO STREAM IN ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH MIDDAY. EXPECTING TO
SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES INCREASE IN SPATIAL
COVERAGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRENGTH
WILL REMAIN LIMITED...HOWEVER...AS INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL AT
BEST DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE HOMOGENEOUS CLOUD COVER. EXPECTING
GUSTY WINDS AS THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND
COLD AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE LOW. NEAR TERM MODELS ARE A LITTLE
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE EROSION OF THE LLVL MOISTURE THIS EVENING
AND THUS HAVE SPED UP THE DRYING AND CLEARING TREND TONIGHT. MUCH
COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED TODAY AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. WE COULD
EVEN SEE SOME RECORD LOW HIGHS CHALLENGED.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST
DURING MIDWEEK...AS UPPER LOW CENTER SINKS SOUTHWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN END OF HUDSON BAY. ALTHOUGH WEAK VORT MAXES WILL BE
ROTATING THROUGH AND KEEPING THE TROUGH IN PLACE...H500 HEIGHTS
WILL BE ON A SLOW INCREASE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODERATING TREND
IN TEMPERATURES...FROM READINGS AROUND 70 ON TUESDAY TO THE UPPER
70S ON THURSDAY.

THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW DIURNALLY-FORCED ISOLATED
SHRA EACH AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO NW PA ON
TUESDAY AS MOISTURE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE IS BETTER...AND CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED IN
MOST AREAS. UPPER COLD POOL ALSO PASSES OVERHEAD...WHICH WILL
ENHANCE INSTABILITY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO. THURSDAY WILL SEE LESS ACTIVITY...AND LITTLE THUNDER
CHANCE...AS COLD POOL SLIDES AWAY AND H500 HEIGHTS CONTINUE THEIR
RISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
H500 HEIGHTS RISE A BIT MORE FRIDAY..ALLOWING A FEW LOCATIONS TO
TOUCH THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS. ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS ONCE
AGAIN...PARTICULARLY IN THE NW. MODELS THEN HINT THAT THE TROUGH
GETS REINFORCED SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND...KNOCKING TEMPERATURES
BACK A COUPLE OF DEGREES. BETTER SHOWER CHANCES RETURN AS
WELL...WITH CHANCE POPS EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY AS MINOR WAVES ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROUGH. LEFT THUNDER OUT FOR NOW BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
OVER THE WEEKEND. ALL IN ALL...NO MAJOR SYSTEMS OR SUMMER HEAT
FORESEEN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ADVNG GT LKS LOW PRES WL BRING MVFR SC AND A SCT-NMRS SHWRS TO THE
RGN THRU THIS AFTN. SOME IFR CIGS ARE ALSO EXPD THIS MRNG N OF I
80. LINGERING VFR SC IS EXPD AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TNGT.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BRF RSTRNS ARE PSBL WED WITH AN UPR LVL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281152
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
752 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN TODAY WITH
A DRYING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FELT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC LOW PULLING AWAY EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT ITS
INFLUENCE WILL STILL REMAIN TODAY. ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE SFC
LOW ANOTHER MID-LEVEL VORT LOBE IS SWINGING DOWN FROM NEAR LAKE
ERIE. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE ON THE INCREASE CURRENTLY AND WILL
BEGIN TO STREAM IN ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH MIDDAY. EXPECTING TO
SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES INCREASE IN SPATIAL
COVERAGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRENGTH
WILL REMAIN LIMITED...HOWEVER...AS INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL AT
BEST DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE HOMOGENEOUS CLOUD COVER. EXPECTING
GUSTY WINDS AS THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND
COLD AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE LOW. NEAR TERM MODELS ARE A LITTLE
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE EROSION OF THE LLVL MOISTURE THIS EVENING
AND THUS HAVE SPED UP THE DRYING AND CLEARING TREND TONIGHT. MUCH
COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED TODAY AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. WE COULD
EVEN SEE SOME RECORD LOW HIGHS CHALLENGED.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST
DURING MIDWEEK...AS UPPER LOW CENTER SINKS SOUTHWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN END OF HUDSON BAY. ALTHOUGH WEAK VORT MAXES WILL BE
ROTATING THROUGH AND KEEPING THE TROUGH IN PLACE...H500 HEIGHTS
WILL BE ON A SLOW INCREASE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODERATING TREND
IN TEMPERATURES...FROM READINGS AROUND 70 ON TUESDAY TO THE UPPER
70S ON THURSDAY.

THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW DIURNALLY-FORCED ISOLATED
SHRA EACH AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO NW PA ON
TUESDAY AS MOISTURE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE IS BETTER...AND CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED IN
MOST AREAS. UPPER COLD POOL ALSO PASSES OVERHEAD...WHICH WILL
ENHANCE INSTABILITY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO. THURSDAY WILL SEE LESS ACTIVITY...AND LITTLE THUNDER
CHANCE...AS COLD POOL SLIDES AWAY AND H500 HEIGHTS CONTINUE THEIR
RISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
H500 HEIGHTS RISE A BIT MORE FRIDAY..ALLOWING A FEW LOCATIONS TO
TOUCH THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS. ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS ONCE
AGAIN...PARTICULARLY IN THE NW. MODELS THEN HINT THAT THE TROUGH
GETS REINFORCED SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND...KNOCKING TEMPERATURES
BACK A COUPLE OF DEGREES. BETTER SHOWER CHANCES RETURN AS
WELL...WITH CHANCE POPS EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY AS MINOR WAVES ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROUGH. LEFT THUNDER OUT FOR NOW BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
OVER THE WEEKEND. ALL IN ALL...NO MAJOR SYSTEMS OR SUMMER HEAT
FORESEEN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ADVNG GT LKS LOW PRES WL BRING MVFR SC AND A SCT-NMRS SHWRS TO THE
RGN THRU THIS AFTN. SOME IFR CIGS ARE ALSO EXPD THIS MRNG N OF I
80. LINGERING VFR SC IS EXPD AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TNGT.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BRF RSTRNS ARE PSBL WED WITH AN UPR LVL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281049
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
649 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TODAY...THEN STALLS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO KEEP VERY LIGHT SPRINKLES IN NE NC
AND EXTREME SE VA FROM THE CHOWAN RIVER EWD. CEILINGS ARE PRETTY
HIGH THOUGH SO ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE NON-EXISTENT. OTHERWISE...THE
REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR A DRY AND BREEZY DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SFC COLD FRONT IS FINALLY APPROACHING THE WV/VA BORDER AS THE
REGION SITS WITHIN A SPLIT FLOW WITH BEST DYNAMICS FOR ONGOING
SHOWERS/STORMS STAYING WELL TO THE NORTH AND ALSO WELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST. IN ADDITION...CLOUD TOP WARMING HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES ACROSS CNTRL VA THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
AKQ VAD WIND PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG WLY WINDS FROM 900
MB ON UP...WHICH IS CAUSING DOWNSLOPE DRYING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
WAKEFIELD CWA. THEREFORE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS MOVING TWD THE
PIEDMONT AND FAR NRN COUNTIES HAVE ALL BUT DISAPPEARED AS OF 315
AM THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY REDEVELOP OVER FAR SE
VA/NE NC THIS AFTN AS THE FRONT MAKES IT TO THE COAST AND
INTERACTS WITH SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES AND THE MARINE BOUNDARY
LAYER...PRIMARILY 15-20 PERCENT WITH CHANCE WORDING RIGHT ALONG
ALBEMARLE SOUND.

A WLY 80-90 KT JET STREAK NOSING INTO CNTRL VA TODAY WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SUBSIDENCE OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW
DOWNSLOPE DRYING TO ENDURE AND RESULT IN BREEZY WEST WINDS AROUND
20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH BY THIS AFTN. THE WELL-MIXED
ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE NICELY WHILE DRIVING
DEWPOINTS DOWN DRAMATICALLY (UPPER 50S NW TO LOWER 60S SE)...AS
COMPARED TO THE PAST WEEK OR SO. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS AROUND 90
(UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES) UNDER MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE COAST THIS EVENING. SINCE MOST
SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTN SHOULD COME TO AN END BY SUNRISE OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. A COOLER AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS
AHEAD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S NW TO UPPER 60S SE AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
LIGHT NORTH WINDS DEVELOP BY TUESDAY AND WEAK CAA IS ANTICIPATED.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED AFTN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG CHES
BAY INTO FAR SE VA/NE NC AS THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SFC LOW
LINGERING ALONG THE NOW STALLED CAROLINA COASTAL FRONT. POPS ARE
CAPPED FROM 15-20 PERCENT AT BEST. TEMPS WILL FEEL COOL AND
COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER
70S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S INLAND/MID-UPPER 60S AT IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION WED/WED NIGHT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW-MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF OVR THE MID ATLC REGION WED NGT...WILL
RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND DEEPEN THU THRU SUN.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OFF THE MID ATLC CST WED NGT INTO
FRI...WILL DRIFT BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI THRU SUN. FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR WED NGT INTO FRI...THEN INCREASE TO SLGT CHC
OR CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT THRU SUN. STILL FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WED NGT
AND THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY/LO LVL MOIST RETURNS
FOR FRI THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID
80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S
THU MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DP LYRD WSW FLO OVR THE MDATLC RGN HAS RESULTED IN ANY CONVECTION
EXITING THE MTNS OVRNGT TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES E TWD THE CSTL
PLAIN. NOT RULING OUT ISOLD SHRA/TSTM THROUGH EARLY/MID
MRNG...MNLY INVOF SE VA/NE NC...(MAYBE AGN LT AFTN/EARLY EVE FAR
SE VA/CSTL NE NC)...THOUGH PCPN CHCS LWRG. VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH
TDA...GUSTY W WNDS TO ABT 25 KT W/ LIMITED CLDNS. SFC CDFNT TO BE
OFF THE CST BY TNGT RESULTING IN WIND SHIFT TO NNW FOR
TNGT/TUE...ALG W/ ONLY SCT CLDNS (CONTD VFR CONDS).

DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST MIDWEEK. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG IS PSBL
NR SUNRISE BUT WIDESPREAD IFR NOT XPCD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A CDFNT PUSHES ACROSS THE MID ATLC WTRS BY LT THIS
AFTN/EVE...THEN WELL E OFF THE CST BY LATE TNGT/EARLY TUE. SURGE
IN SPEEDS ATTM W/ WSW WNDS...RESULTING IN LO END SCA FOR THE
BAY/PORTION OF RIVERS. WNDS (BECOME) W TDA...XPCG SPEEDS TO WANE
THIS AFTN/EVE...THEN BECOME NW AND N TNGT INTO TUE MRNG. VRB
WINDS AOB 10 KT XCPD WED THRU THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281049
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
649 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TODAY...THEN STALLS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO KEEP VERY LIGHT SPRINKLES IN NE NC
AND EXTREME SE VA FROM THE CHOWAN RIVER EWD. CEILINGS ARE PRETTY
HIGH THOUGH SO ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE NON-EXISTENT. OTHERWISE...THE
REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR A DRY AND BREEZY DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SFC COLD FRONT IS FINALLY APPROACHING THE WV/VA BORDER AS THE
REGION SITS WITHIN A SPLIT FLOW WITH BEST DYNAMICS FOR ONGOING
SHOWERS/STORMS STAYING WELL TO THE NORTH AND ALSO WELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST. IN ADDITION...CLOUD TOP WARMING HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES ACROSS CNTRL VA THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
AKQ VAD WIND PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG WLY WINDS FROM 900
MB ON UP...WHICH IS CAUSING DOWNSLOPE DRYING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
WAKEFIELD CWA. THEREFORE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS MOVING TWD THE
PIEDMONT AND FAR NRN COUNTIES HAVE ALL BUT DISAPPEARED AS OF 315
AM THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY REDEVELOP OVER FAR SE
VA/NE NC THIS AFTN AS THE FRONT MAKES IT TO THE COAST AND
INTERACTS WITH SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES AND THE MARINE BOUNDARY
LAYER...PRIMARILY 15-20 PERCENT WITH CHANCE WORDING RIGHT ALONG
ALBEMARLE SOUND.

A WLY 80-90 KT JET STREAK NOSING INTO CNTRL VA TODAY WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SUBSIDENCE OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW
DOWNSLOPE DRYING TO ENDURE AND RESULT IN BREEZY WEST WINDS AROUND
20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH BY THIS AFTN. THE WELL-MIXED
ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE NICELY WHILE DRIVING
DEWPOINTS DOWN DRAMATICALLY (UPPER 50S NW TO LOWER 60S SE)...AS
COMPARED TO THE PAST WEEK OR SO. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS AROUND 90
(UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES) UNDER MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE COAST THIS EVENING. SINCE MOST
SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTN SHOULD COME TO AN END BY SUNRISE OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. A COOLER AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS
AHEAD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S NW TO UPPER 60S SE AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
LIGHT NORTH WINDS DEVELOP BY TUESDAY AND WEAK CAA IS ANTICIPATED.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED AFTN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG CHES
BAY INTO FAR SE VA/NE NC AS THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SFC LOW
LINGERING ALONG THE NOW STALLED CAROLINA COASTAL FRONT. POPS ARE
CAPPED FROM 15-20 PERCENT AT BEST. TEMPS WILL FEEL COOL AND
COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER
70S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S INLAND/MID-UPPER 60S AT IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION WED/WED NIGHT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW-MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF OVR THE MID ATLC REGION WED NGT...WILL
RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND DEEPEN THU THRU SUN.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OFF THE MID ATLC CST WED NGT INTO
FRI...WILL DRIFT BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI THRU SUN. FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR WED NGT INTO FRI...THEN INCREASE TO SLGT CHC
OR CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT THRU SUN. STILL FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WED NGT
AND THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY/LO LVL MOIST RETURNS
FOR FRI THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID
80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S
THU MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DP LYRD WSW FLO OVR THE MDATLC RGN HAS RESULTED IN ANY CONVECTION
EXITING THE MTNS OVRNGT TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES E TWD THE CSTL
PLAIN. NOT RULING OUT ISOLD SHRA/TSTM THROUGH EARLY/MID
MRNG...MNLY INVOF SE VA/NE NC...(MAYBE AGN LT AFTN/EARLY EVE FAR
SE VA/CSTL NE NC)...THOUGH PCPN CHCS LWRG. VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH
TDA...GUSTY W WNDS TO ABT 25 KT W/ LIMITED CLDNS. SFC CDFNT TO BE
OFF THE CST BY TNGT RESULTING IN WIND SHIFT TO NNW FOR
TNGT/TUE...ALG W/ ONLY SCT CLDNS (CONTD VFR CONDS).

DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST MIDWEEK. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG IS PSBL
NR SUNRISE BUT WIDESPREAD IFR NOT XPCD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A CDFNT PUSHES ACROSS THE MID ATLC WTRS BY LT THIS
AFTN/EVE...THEN WELL E OFF THE CST BY LATE TNGT/EARLY TUE. SURGE
IN SPEEDS ATTM W/ WSW WNDS...RESULTING IN LO END SCA FOR THE
BAY/PORTION OF RIVERS. WNDS (BECOME) W TDA...XPCG SPEEDS TO WANE
THIS AFTN/EVE...THEN BECOME NW AND N TNGT INTO TUE MRNG. VRB
WINDS AOB 10 KT XCPD WED THRU THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281049
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
649 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TODAY...THEN STALLS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO KEEP VERY LIGHT SPRINKLES IN NE NC
AND EXTREME SE VA FROM THE CHOWAN RIVER EWD. CEILINGS ARE PRETTY
HIGH THOUGH SO ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE NON-EXISTENT. OTHERWISE...THE
REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR A DRY AND BREEZY DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SFC COLD FRONT IS FINALLY APPROACHING THE WV/VA BORDER AS THE
REGION SITS WITHIN A SPLIT FLOW WITH BEST DYNAMICS FOR ONGOING
SHOWERS/STORMS STAYING WELL TO THE NORTH AND ALSO WELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST. IN ADDITION...CLOUD TOP WARMING HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES ACROSS CNTRL VA THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
AKQ VAD WIND PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG WLY WINDS FROM 900
MB ON UP...WHICH IS CAUSING DOWNSLOPE DRYING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
WAKEFIELD CWA. THEREFORE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS MOVING TWD THE
PIEDMONT AND FAR NRN COUNTIES HAVE ALL BUT DISAPPEARED AS OF 315
AM THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY REDEVELOP OVER FAR SE
VA/NE NC THIS AFTN AS THE FRONT MAKES IT TO THE COAST AND
INTERACTS WITH SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES AND THE MARINE BOUNDARY
LAYER...PRIMARILY 15-20 PERCENT WITH CHANCE WORDING RIGHT ALONG
ALBEMARLE SOUND.

A WLY 80-90 KT JET STREAK NOSING INTO CNTRL VA TODAY WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SUBSIDENCE OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW
DOWNSLOPE DRYING TO ENDURE AND RESULT IN BREEZY WEST WINDS AROUND
20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH BY THIS AFTN. THE WELL-MIXED
ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE NICELY WHILE DRIVING
DEWPOINTS DOWN DRAMATICALLY (UPPER 50S NW TO LOWER 60S SE)...AS
COMPARED TO THE PAST WEEK OR SO. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS AROUND 90
(UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES) UNDER MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE COAST THIS EVENING. SINCE MOST
SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTN SHOULD COME TO AN END BY SUNRISE OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. A COOLER AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS
AHEAD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S NW TO UPPER 60S SE AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
LIGHT NORTH WINDS DEVELOP BY TUESDAY AND WEAK CAA IS ANTICIPATED.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED AFTN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG CHES
BAY INTO FAR SE VA/NE NC AS THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SFC LOW
LINGERING ALONG THE NOW STALLED CAROLINA COASTAL FRONT. POPS ARE
CAPPED FROM 15-20 PERCENT AT BEST. TEMPS WILL FEEL COOL AND
COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER
70S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S INLAND/MID-UPPER 60S AT IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION WED/WED NIGHT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW-MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF OVR THE MID ATLC REGION WED NGT...WILL
RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND DEEPEN THU THRU SUN.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OFF THE MID ATLC CST WED NGT INTO
FRI...WILL DRIFT BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI THRU SUN. FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR WED NGT INTO FRI...THEN INCREASE TO SLGT CHC
OR CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT THRU SUN. STILL FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WED NGT
AND THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY/LO LVL MOIST RETURNS
FOR FRI THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID
80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S
THU MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DP LYRD WSW FLO OVR THE MDATLC RGN HAS RESULTED IN ANY CONVECTION
EXITING THE MTNS OVRNGT TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES E TWD THE CSTL
PLAIN. NOT RULING OUT ISOLD SHRA/TSTM THROUGH EARLY/MID
MRNG...MNLY INVOF SE VA/NE NC...(MAYBE AGN LT AFTN/EARLY EVE FAR
SE VA/CSTL NE NC)...THOUGH PCPN CHCS LWRG. VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH
TDA...GUSTY W WNDS TO ABT 25 KT W/ LIMITED CLDNS. SFC CDFNT TO BE
OFF THE CST BY TNGT RESULTING IN WIND SHIFT TO NNW FOR
TNGT/TUE...ALG W/ ONLY SCT CLDNS (CONTD VFR CONDS).

DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST MIDWEEK. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG IS PSBL
NR SUNRISE BUT WIDESPREAD IFR NOT XPCD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A CDFNT PUSHES ACROSS THE MID ATLC WTRS BY LT THIS
AFTN/EVE...THEN WELL E OFF THE CST BY LATE TNGT/EARLY TUE. SURGE
IN SPEEDS ATTM W/ WSW WNDS...RESULTING IN LO END SCA FOR THE
BAY/PORTION OF RIVERS. WNDS (BECOME) W TDA...XPCG SPEEDS TO WANE
THIS AFTN/EVE...THEN BECOME NW AND N TNGT INTO TUE MRNG. VRB
WINDS AOB 10 KT XCPD WED THRU THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281049
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
649 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TODAY...THEN STALLS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO KEEP VERY LIGHT SPRINKLES IN NE NC
AND EXTREME SE VA FROM THE CHOWAN RIVER EWD. CEILINGS ARE PRETTY
HIGH THOUGH SO ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE NON-EXISTENT. OTHERWISE...THE
REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR A DRY AND BREEZY DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SFC COLD FRONT IS FINALLY APPROACHING THE WV/VA BORDER AS THE
REGION SITS WITHIN A SPLIT FLOW WITH BEST DYNAMICS FOR ONGOING
SHOWERS/STORMS STAYING WELL TO THE NORTH AND ALSO WELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST. IN ADDITION...CLOUD TOP WARMING HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES ACROSS CNTRL VA THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
AKQ VAD WIND PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG WLY WINDS FROM 900
MB ON UP...WHICH IS CAUSING DOWNSLOPE DRYING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
WAKEFIELD CWA. THEREFORE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS MOVING TWD THE
PIEDMONT AND FAR NRN COUNTIES HAVE ALL BUT DISAPPEARED AS OF 315
AM THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY REDEVELOP OVER FAR SE
VA/NE NC THIS AFTN AS THE FRONT MAKES IT TO THE COAST AND
INTERACTS WITH SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES AND THE MARINE BOUNDARY
LAYER...PRIMARILY 15-20 PERCENT WITH CHANCE WORDING RIGHT ALONG
ALBEMARLE SOUND.

A WLY 80-90 KT JET STREAK NOSING INTO CNTRL VA TODAY WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SUBSIDENCE OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW
DOWNSLOPE DRYING TO ENDURE AND RESULT IN BREEZY WEST WINDS AROUND
20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH BY THIS AFTN. THE WELL-MIXED
ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE NICELY WHILE DRIVING
DEWPOINTS DOWN DRAMATICALLY (UPPER 50S NW TO LOWER 60S SE)...AS
COMPARED TO THE PAST WEEK OR SO. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS AROUND 90
(UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES) UNDER MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE COAST THIS EVENING. SINCE MOST
SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTN SHOULD COME TO AN END BY SUNRISE OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. A COOLER AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS
AHEAD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S NW TO UPPER 60S SE AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
LIGHT NORTH WINDS DEVELOP BY TUESDAY AND WEAK CAA IS ANTICIPATED.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED AFTN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG CHES
BAY INTO FAR SE VA/NE NC AS THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SFC LOW
LINGERING ALONG THE NOW STALLED CAROLINA COASTAL FRONT. POPS ARE
CAPPED FROM 15-20 PERCENT AT BEST. TEMPS WILL FEEL COOL AND
COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER
70S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S INLAND/MID-UPPER 60S AT IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION WED/WED NIGHT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW-MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF OVR THE MID ATLC REGION WED NGT...WILL
RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND DEEPEN THU THRU SUN.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OFF THE MID ATLC CST WED NGT INTO
FRI...WILL DRIFT BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI THRU SUN. FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR WED NGT INTO FRI...THEN INCREASE TO SLGT CHC
OR CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT THRU SUN. STILL FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WED NGT
AND THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY/LO LVL MOIST RETURNS
FOR FRI THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID
80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S
THU MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DP LYRD WSW FLO OVR THE MDATLC RGN HAS RESULTED IN ANY CONVECTION
EXITING THE MTNS OVRNGT TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES E TWD THE CSTL
PLAIN. NOT RULING OUT ISOLD SHRA/TSTM THROUGH EARLY/MID
MRNG...MNLY INVOF SE VA/NE NC...(MAYBE AGN LT AFTN/EARLY EVE FAR
SE VA/CSTL NE NC)...THOUGH PCPN CHCS LWRG. VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH
TDA...GUSTY W WNDS TO ABT 25 KT W/ LIMITED CLDNS. SFC CDFNT TO BE
OFF THE CST BY TNGT RESULTING IN WIND SHIFT TO NNW FOR
TNGT/TUE...ALG W/ ONLY SCT CLDNS (CONTD VFR CONDS).

DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST MIDWEEK. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG IS PSBL
NR SUNRISE BUT WIDESPREAD IFR NOT XPCD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A CDFNT PUSHES ACROSS THE MID ATLC WTRS BY LT THIS
AFTN/EVE...THEN WELL E OFF THE CST BY LATE TNGT/EARLY TUE. SURGE
IN SPEEDS ATTM W/ WSW WNDS...RESULTING IN LO END SCA FOR THE
BAY/PORTION OF RIVERS. WNDS (BECOME) W TDA...XPCG SPEEDS TO WANE
THIS AFTN/EVE...THEN BECOME NW AND N TNGT INTO TUE MRNG. VRB
WINDS AOB 10 KT XCPD WED THRU THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281046
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
646 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN TODAY WITH
A DRYING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FELT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC LOW PULLING AWAY EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT ITS
INFLUENCE WILL STILL REMAIN TODAY. ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE SFC
LOW ANOTHER MID-LEVEL VORT LOBE IS SWINGING DOWN FROM NEAR LAKE
ERIE. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE ON THE INCREASE CURRENTLY AND WILL
BEGIN TO STREAM IN ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH MIDDAY. EXPECTING TO
SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES INCREASE IN SPATIAL
COVERAGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRENGTH
WILL REMAIN LIMITED...HOWEVER...AS INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL AT
BEST DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE HOMOGENEOUS CLOUD COVER. EXPECTING
GUSTY WINDS AS THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND
COLD AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE LOW. NEAR TERM MODELS ARE A LITTLE
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE EROSION OF THE LLVL MOISTURE THIS EVENING
AND THUS HAVE SPED UP THE DRYING AND CLEARING TREND TONIGHT. MUCH
COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED TODAY AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. WE COULD
EVEN SEE SOME RECORD LOW HIGHS CHALLENGED.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST
DURING MIDWEEK...AS UPPER LOW CENTER SINKS SOUTHWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN END OF HUDSON BAY. ALTHOUGH WEAK VORT MAXES WILL BE
ROTATING THROUGH AND KEEPING THE TROUGH IN PLACE...H500 HEIGHTS
WILL BE ON A SLOW INCREASE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODERATING TREND
IN TEMPERATURES...FROM READINGS AROUND 70 ON TUESDAY TO THE UPPER
70S ON THURSDAY.

THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW DIURNALLY-FORCED ISOLATED
SHRA EACH AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO NW PA ON
TUESDAY AS MOISTURE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE IS BETTER...AND CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED IN
MOST AREAS. UPPER COLD POOL ALSO PASSES OVERHEAD...WHICH WILL
ENHANCE INSTABILITY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO. THURSDAY WILL SEE LESS ACTIVITY...AND LITTLE THUNDER
CHANCE...AS COLD POOL SLIDES AWAY AND H500 HEIGHTS CONTINUE THEIR
RISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
H500 HEIGHTS RISE A BIT MORE FRIDAY..ALLOWING A FEW LOCATIONS TO
TOUCH THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS. ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS ONCE
AGAIN...PARTICULARLY IN THE NW. MODELS THEN HINT THAT THE TROUGH
GETS REINFORCED SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND...KNOCKING TEMPERATURES
BACK A COUPLE OF DEGREES. BETTER SHOWER CHANCES RETURN AS
WELL...WITH CHANCE POPS EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY AS MINOR WAVES ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROUGH. LEFT THUNDER OUT FOR NOW BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
OVER THE WEEKEND. ALL IN ALL...NO MAJOR SYSTEMS OR SUMMER HEAT
FORESEEN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH THE MAIN SFC LOW PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA...MVFR TO IFR STRATUS
IS OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE AREA. WITH COPIOUS LLVL MOISTURE AVAILABLE...WILL
NOT BE EXPECTING MUCH IMPROVEMENT THROUGH MIDDAY. SHOWER CHANCES
WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD AIR WILL
GIVE RISE TO SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES. THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW WILL COMBINE FOR GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WITH CLOUDS BREAKING UP
TONIGHT. A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING.
TAX

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281046
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
646 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN TODAY WITH
A DRYING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FELT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC LOW PULLING AWAY EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT ITS
INFLUENCE WILL STILL REMAIN TODAY. ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE SFC
LOW ANOTHER MID-LEVEL VORT LOBE IS SWINGING DOWN FROM NEAR LAKE
ERIE. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE ON THE INCREASE CURRENTLY AND WILL
BEGIN TO STREAM IN ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH MIDDAY. EXPECTING TO
SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES INCREASE IN SPATIAL
COVERAGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRENGTH
WILL REMAIN LIMITED...HOWEVER...AS INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL AT
BEST DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE HOMOGENEOUS CLOUD COVER. EXPECTING
GUSTY WINDS AS THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND
COLD AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE LOW. NEAR TERM MODELS ARE A LITTLE
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE EROSION OF THE LLVL MOISTURE THIS EVENING
AND THUS HAVE SPED UP THE DRYING AND CLEARING TREND TONIGHT. MUCH
COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED TODAY AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. WE COULD
EVEN SEE SOME RECORD LOW HIGHS CHALLENGED.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST
DURING MIDWEEK...AS UPPER LOW CENTER SINKS SOUTHWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN END OF HUDSON BAY. ALTHOUGH WEAK VORT MAXES WILL BE
ROTATING THROUGH AND KEEPING THE TROUGH IN PLACE...H500 HEIGHTS
WILL BE ON A SLOW INCREASE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODERATING TREND
IN TEMPERATURES...FROM READINGS AROUND 70 ON TUESDAY TO THE UPPER
70S ON THURSDAY.

THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW DIURNALLY-FORCED ISOLATED
SHRA EACH AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO NW PA ON
TUESDAY AS MOISTURE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE IS BETTER...AND CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED IN
MOST AREAS. UPPER COLD POOL ALSO PASSES OVERHEAD...WHICH WILL
ENHANCE INSTABILITY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO. THURSDAY WILL SEE LESS ACTIVITY...AND LITTLE THUNDER
CHANCE...AS COLD POOL SLIDES AWAY AND H500 HEIGHTS CONTINUE THEIR
RISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
H500 HEIGHTS RISE A BIT MORE FRIDAY..ALLOWING A FEW LOCATIONS TO
TOUCH THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS. ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS ONCE
AGAIN...PARTICULARLY IN THE NW. MODELS THEN HINT THAT THE TROUGH
GETS REINFORCED SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND...KNOCKING TEMPERATURES
BACK A COUPLE OF DEGREES. BETTER SHOWER CHANCES RETURN AS
WELL...WITH CHANCE POPS EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY AS MINOR WAVES ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROUGH. LEFT THUNDER OUT FOR NOW BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
OVER THE WEEKEND. ALL IN ALL...NO MAJOR SYSTEMS OR SUMMER HEAT
FORESEEN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH THE MAIN SFC LOW PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA...MVFR TO IFR STRATUS
IS OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE AREA. WITH COPIOUS LLVL MOISTURE AVAILABLE...WILL
NOT BE EXPECTING MUCH IMPROVEMENT THROUGH MIDDAY. SHOWER CHANCES
WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD AIR WILL
GIVE RISE TO SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES. THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW WILL COMBINE FOR GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WITH CLOUDS BREAKING UP
TONIGHT. A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING.
TAX

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281014
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
614 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TODAY...THEN STALLS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SFC COLD FRONT IS FINALLY APPROACHING THE WV/VA BORDER AS THE
REGION SITS WITHIN A SPLIT FLOW WITH BEST DYNAMICS FOR ONGOING
SHOWERS/STORMS STAYING WELL TO THE NORTH AND ALSO WELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST. IN ADDITION...CLOUD TOP WARMING HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES ACROSS CNTRL VA THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
AKQ VAD WIND PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG WLY WINDS FROM
900 MB ON UP...WHICH IS CAUSING DOWNSLOPE DRYING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
WAKEFIELD CWA. THEREFORE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS MOVING TWD THE
PIEDMONT AND FAR NRN COUNTIES HAVE ALL BUT DISAPPEARED AS OF
315 AM THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY REDEVELOP OVER FAR SE
VA/NE NC THIS AFTN AS THE FRONT MAKES IT TO THE COAST AND
INTERACTS WITH SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES AND THE MARINE BOUNDARY
LAYER...PRIMARILY 15-20 PERCENT WITH CHANCE WORDING RIGHT ALONG
ALBEMARLE SOUND.

A WLY 80-90 KT JET STREAK NOSING INTO CNTRL VA TODAY WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SUBSIDENCE OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW
DOWNSLOPE DRYING TO ENDURE AND RESULT IN BREEZY WEST WINDS AROUND
20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH BY THIS AFTN. THE WELL-MIXED
ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE NICELY WHILE DRIVING
DEWPOINTS DOWN DRAMATICALLY (UPPER 50S NW TO LOWER 60S SE)...AS
COMPARED TO THE PAST WEEK OR SO. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS AROUND 90
(UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES) UNDER MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE COAST THIS EVENING. SINCE MOST
SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTN SHOULD COME TO AN END BY SUNRISE OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. A COOLER AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS
AHEAD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S NW TO UPPER 60S SE AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
LIGHT NORTH WINDS DEVELOP BY TUESDAY AND WEAK CAA IS ANTICIPATED.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED AFTN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG CHES
BAY INTO FAR SE VA/NE NC AS THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SFC LOW
LINGERING ALONG THE NOW STALLED CAROLINA COASTAL FRONT. POPS ARE
CAPPED FROM 15-20 PERCENT AT BEST. TEMPS WILL FEEL COOL AND
COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER
70S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S INLAND/MID-UPPER 60S AT IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION WED/WED NIGHT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW-MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF OVR THE MID ATLC REGION WED NGT...WILL
RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND DEEPEN THU THRU SUN.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OFF THE MID ATLC CST WED NGT INTO
FRI...WILL DRIFT BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI THRU SUN. FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR WED NGT INTO FRI...THEN INCREASE TO SLGT CHC
OR CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT THRU SUN. STILL FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WED NGT
AND THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY/LO LVL MOIST RETURNS
FOR FRI THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID
80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S
THU MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DP LYRD WSW FLO OVR THE MDATLC RGN HAS RESULTED IN ANY CONVECTION
EXITING THE MTNS OVRNGT TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES E TWD THE CSTL
PLAIN. NOT RULING OUT ISOLD SHRA/TSTM THROUGH EARLY/MID
MRNG...MNLY INVOF SE VA/NE NC...(MAYBE AGN LT AFTN/EARLY EVE FAR
SE VA/CSTL NE NC)...THOUGH PCPN CHCS LWRG. VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH
TDA...GUSTY W WNDS TO ABT 25 KT W/ LIMITED CLDNS. SFC CDFNT TO BE
OFF THE CST BY TNGT RESULTING IN WIND SHIFT TO NNW FOR
TNGT/TUE...ALG W/ ONLY SCT CLDNS (CONTD VFR CONDS).

DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST MIDWEEK. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG IS PSBL
NR SUNRISE BUT WIDESPREAD IFR NOT XPCD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A CDFNT PUSHES ACROSS THE MID ATLC WTRS BY LT THIS
AFTN/EVE...THEN WELL E OFF THE CST BY LATE TNGT/EARLY TUE. SURGE
IN SPEEDS ATTM W/ WSW WNDS...RESULTING IN LO END SCA FOR THE
BAY/PORTION OF RIVERS. WNDS (BECOME) W TDA...XPCG SPEEDS TO WANE
THIS AFTN/EVE...THEN BECOME NW AND N TNGT INTO TUE MRNG. VRB
WINDS AOB 10 KT XCPD WED THRU THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB











000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281014
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
614 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TODAY...THEN STALLS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SFC COLD FRONT IS FINALLY APPROACHING THE WV/VA BORDER AS THE
REGION SITS WITHIN A SPLIT FLOW WITH BEST DYNAMICS FOR ONGOING
SHOWERS/STORMS STAYING WELL TO THE NORTH AND ALSO WELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST. IN ADDITION...CLOUD TOP WARMING HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES ACROSS CNTRL VA THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
AKQ VAD WIND PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG WLY WINDS FROM
900 MB ON UP...WHICH IS CAUSING DOWNSLOPE DRYING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
WAKEFIELD CWA. THEREFORE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS MOVING TWD THE
PIEDMONT AND FAR NRN COUNTIES HAVE ALL BUT DISAPPEARED AS OF
315 AM THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY REDEVELOP OVER FAR SE
VA/NE NC THIS AFTN AS THE FRONT MAKES IT TO THE COAST AND
INTERACTS WITH SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES AND THE MARINE BOUNDARY
LAYER...PRIMARILY 15-20 PERCENT WITH CHANCE WORDING RIGHT ALONG
ALBEMARLE SOUND.

A WLY 80-90 KT JET STREAK NOSING INTO CNTRL VA TODAY WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SUBSIDENCE OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW
DOWNSLOPE DRYING TO ENDURE AND RESULT IN BREEZY WEST WINDS AROUND
20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH BY THIS AFTN. THE WELL-MIXED
ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE NICELY WHILE DRIVING
DEWPOINTS DOWN DRAMATICALLY (UPPER 50S NW TO LOWER 60S SE)...AS
COMPARED TO THE PAST WEEK OR SO. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS AROUND 90
(UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES) UNDER MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE COAST THIS EVENING. SINCE MOST
SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTN SHOULD COME TO AN END BY SUNRISE OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. A COOLER AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS
AHEAD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S NW TO UPPER 60S SE AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
LIGHT NORTH WINDS DEVELOP BY TUESDAY AND WEAK CAA IS ANTICIPATED.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED AFTN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG CHES
BAY INTO FAR SE VA/NE NC AS THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SFC LOW
LINGERING ALONG THE NOW STALLED CAROLINA COASTAL FRONT. POPS ARE
CAPPED FROM 15-20 PERCENT AT BEST. TEMPS WILL FEEL COOL AND
COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER
70S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S INLAND/MID-UPPER 60S AT IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION WED/WED NIGHT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW-MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF OVR THE MID ATLC REGION WED NGT...WILL
RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND DEEPEN THU THRU SUN.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OFF THE MID ATLC CST WED NGT INTO
FRI...WILL DRIFT BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI THRU SUN. FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR WED NGT INTO FRI...THEN INCREASE TO SLGT CHC
OR CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT THRU SUN. STILL FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WED NGT
AND THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY/LO LVL MOIST RETURNS
FOR FRI THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID
80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S
THU MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DP LYRD WSW FLO OVR THE MDATLC RGN HAS RESULTED IN ANY CONVECTION
EXITING THE MTNS OVRNGT TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES E TWD THE CSTL
PLAIN. NOT RULING OUT ISOLD SHRA/TSTM THROUGH EARLY/MID
MRNG...MNLY INVOF SE VA/NE NC...(MAYBE AGN LT AFTN/EARLY EVE FAR
SE VA/CSTL NE NC)...THOUGH PCPN CHCS LWRG. VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH
TDA...GUSTY W WNDS TO ABT 25 KT W/ LIMITED CLDNS. SFC CDFNT TO BE
OFF THE CST BY TNGT RESULTING IN WIND SHIFT TO NNW FOR
TNGT/TUE...ALG W/ ONLY SCT CLDNS (CONTD VFR CONDS).

DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST MIDWEEK. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG IS PSBL
NR SUNRISE BUT WIDESPREAD IFR NOT XPCD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A CDFNT PUSHES ACROSS THE MID ATLC WTRS BY LT THIS
AFTN/EVE...THEN WELL E OFF THE CST BY LATE TNGT/EARLY TUE. SURGE
IN SPEEDS ATTM W/ WSW WNDS...RESULTING IN LO END SCA FOR THE
BAY/PORTION OF RIVERS. WNDS (BECOME) W TDA...XPCG SPEEDS TO WANE
THIS AFTN/EVE...THEN BECOME NW AND N TNGT INTO TUE MRNG. VRB
WINDS AOB 10 KT XCPD WED THRU THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB












000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280834
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
434 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN TODAY WITH
A DRYING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FELT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...SO DO THE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT CLEARED THE AREA BY ABOUT 05Z. THE CURRENT
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE DRY CONVEYOR BELT PUSHING IN ACROSS OUR
SOUTH WORKING TOWARDS A TEMPORARY DRYING TREND...AND EVEN BREAKING
UP THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...ANOTHER VORT LOBE ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW IS SWINGING THROUGH LAKE ERIE CURRENTLY.
ALREADY SEEING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERATING OFF
OF RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAKING THEIR WAY ON SHORE NEAR
KCLE. HAVE THIS WAVE TIMED TO REACH OUR NWRN PERIPHERY BY ABOUT
09Z WITH SHOWER CHANCES INCREASING SOUTHWESTWARD ONCE AGAIN
THROUGH MID-MORNING. WHILE WE WILL SEE SPATIAL COVERAGE OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASE SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA TODAY...STRENGTH
WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS INSTABILITY WANES. EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS AS
THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND COLD AIR ADVECTS
IN BEHIND THE LOW. NEAR TERM MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE EROSION OF THE LLVL MOISTURE THIS EVENING AND THUS HAVE SPED
UP THE DRYING TREND TONIGHT.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST
DURING MIDWEEK...AS UPPER LOW CENTER SINKS SOUTHWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN END OF HUDSON BAY. ALTHOUGH WEAK VORT MAXES WILL BE
ROTATING THROUGH AND KEEPING THE TROUGH IN PLACE...H500 HEIGHTS
WILL BE ON A SLOW INCREASE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODERATING TREND
IN TEMPERATURES...FROM READINGS AROUND 70 ON TUESDAY TO THE UPPER
70S ON THURSDAY.

THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW DIURNALLY-FORCED ISOLATED
SHRA EACH AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO NW PA ON
TUESDAY AS MOISTURE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE IS BETTER...AND CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED IN
MOST AREAS. UPPER COLD POOL ALSO PASSES OVERHEAD...WHICH WILL
ENHANCE INSTABILITY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO. THURSDAY WILL SEE LESS ACTIVITY...AND LITTLE THUNDER
CHANCE...AS COLD POOL SLIDES AWAY AND H500 HEIGHTS CONTINUE THEIR
RISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
H500 HEIGHTS RISE A BIT MORE FRIDAY..ALLOWING A FEW LOCATIONS TO
TOUCH THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS. ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS ONCE
AGAIN...PARTICULARLY IN THE NW. MODELS THEN HINT THAT THE TROUGH
GETS REINFORCED SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND...KNOCKING TEMPERATURES
BACK A COUPLE OF DEGREES. BETTER SHOWER CHANCES RETURN AS
WELL...WITH CHANCE POPS EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY AS MINOR WAVES ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROUGH. LEFT THUNDER OUT FOR NOW BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
OVER THE WEEKEND. ALL IN ALL...NO MAJOR SYSTEMS OR SUMMER HEAT
FORESEEN.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH THE MAIN SFC LOW PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA...DRIER AIR IS MOVING
IN ALOFT WITH CLOUD COVER AT VARYING STAGES. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ARE CONTINUING TO BREAK UP AND LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP.
EXPECTING STRATUS AND VIS RESTRICTIONS TO SPREAD THROUGHOUT...BUT
TIMING WILL BE DIFFICULT PINPOINT. SHOWER CHANCES WILL ALSO
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD AIR WILL GIVE RISE
TO SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW WILL COMBINE FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS TODAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WITH CLOUDS BREAKING UP TONIGHT.
TAX

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280834
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
434 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN TODAY WITH
A DRYING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FELT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...SO DO THE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT CLEARED THE AREA BY ABOUT 05Z. THE CURRENT
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE DRY CONVEYOR BELT PUSHING IN ACROSS OUR
SOUTH WORKING TOWARDS A TEMPORARY DRYING TREND...AND EVEN BREAKING
UP THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...ANOTHER VORT LOBE ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW IS SWINGING THROUGH LAKE ERIE CURRENTLY.
ALREADY SEEING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERATING OFF
OF RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAKING THEIR WAY ON SHORE NEAR
KCLE. HAVE THIS WAVE TIMED TO REACH OUR NWRN PERIPHERY BY ABOUT
09Z WITH SHOWER CHANCES INCREASING SOUTHWESTWARD ONCE AGAIN
THROUGH MID-MORNING. WHILE WE WILL SEE SPATIAL COVERAGE OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASE SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA TODAY...STRENGTH
WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS INSTABILITY WANES. EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS AS
THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND COLD AIR ADVECTS
IN BEHIND THE LOW. NEAR TERM MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE EROSION OF THE LLVL MOISTURE THIS EVENING AND THUS HAVE SPED
UP THE DRYING TREND TONIGHT.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST
DURING MIDWEEK...AS UPPER LOW CENTER SINKS SOUTHWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN END OF HUDSON BAY. ALTHOUGH WEAK VORT MAXES WILL BE
ROTATING THROUGH AND KEEPING THE TROUGH IN PLACE...H500 HEIGHTS
WILL BE ON A SLOW INCREASE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODERATING TREND
IN TEMPERATURES...FROM READINGS AROUND 70 ON TUESDAY TO THE UPPER
70S ON THURSDAY.

THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW DIURNALLY-FORCED ISOLATED
SHRA EACH AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO NW PA ON
TUESDAY AS MOISTURE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE IS BETTER...AND CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED IN
MOST AREAS. UPPER COLD POOL ALSO PASSES OVERHEAD...WHICH WILL
ENHANCE INSTABILITY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO. THURSDAY WILL SEE LESS ACTIVITY...AND LITTLE THUNDER
CHANCE...AS COLD POOL SLIDES AWAY AND H500 HEIGHTS CONTINUE THEIR
RISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
H500 HEIGHTS RISE A BIT MORE FRIDAY..ALLOWING A FEW LOCATIONS TO
TOUCH THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS. ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS ONCE
AGAIN...PARTICULARLY IN THE NW. MODELS THEN HINT THAT THE TROUGH
GETS REINFORCED SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND...KNOCKING TEMPERATURES
BACK A COUPLE OF DEGREES. BETTER SHOWER CHANCES RETURN AS
WELL...WITH CHANCE POPS EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY AS MINOR WAVES ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROUGH. LEFT THUNDER OUT FOR NOW BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
OVER THE WEEKEND. ALL IN ALL...NO MAJOR SYSTEMS OR SUMMER HEAT
FORESEEN.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH THE MAIN SFC LOW PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA...DRIER AIR IS MOVING
IN ALOFT WITH CLOUD COVER AT VARYING STAGES. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ARE CONTINUING TO BREAK UP AND LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP.
EXPECTING STRATUS AND VIS RESTRICTIONS TO SPREAD THROUGHOUT...BUT
TIMING WILL BE DIFFICULT PINPOINT. SHOWER CHANCES WILL ALSO
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD AIR WILL GIVE RISE
TO SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW WILL COMBINE FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS TODAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WITH CLOUDS BREAKING UP TONIGHT.
TAX

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280834
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
434 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN TODAY WITH
A DRYING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FELT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...SO DO THE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT CLEARED THE AREA BY ABOUT 05Z. THE CURRENT
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE DRY CONVEYOR BELT PUSHING IN ACROSS OUR
SOUTH WORKING TOWARDS A TEMPORARY DRYING TREND...AND EVEN BREAKING
UP THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...ANOTHER VORT LOBE ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW IS SWINGING THROUGH LAKE ERIE CURRENTLY.
ALREADY SEEING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERATING OFF
OF RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAKING THEIR WAY ON SHORE NEAR
KCLE. HAVE THIS WAVE TIMED TO REACH OUR NWRN PERIPHERY BY ABOUT
09Z WITH SHOWER CHANCES INCREASING SOUTHWESTWARD ONCE AGAIN
THROUGH MID-MORNING. WHILE WE WILL SEE SPATIAL COVERAGE OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASE SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA TODAY...STRENGTH
WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS INSTABILITY WANES. EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS AS
THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND COLD AIR ADVECTS
IN BEHIND THE LOW. NEAR TERM MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE EROSION OF THE LLVL MOISTURE THIS EVENING AND THUS HAVE SPED
UP THE DRYING TREND TONIGHT.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST
DURING MIDWEEK...AS UPPER LOW CENTER SINKS SOUTHWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN END OF HUDSON BAY. ALTHOUGH WEAK VORT MAXES WILL BE
ROTATING THROUGH AND KEEPING THE TROUGH IN PLACE...H500 HEIGHTS
WILL BE ON A SLOW INCREASE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODERATING TREND
IN TEMPERATURES...FROM READINGS AROUND 70 ON TUESDAY TO THE UPPER
70S ON THURSDAY.

THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW DIURNALLY-FORCED ISOLATED
SHRA EACH AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO NW PA ON
TUESDAY AS MOISTURE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE IS BETTER...AND CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED IN
MOST AREAS. UPPER COLD POOL ALSO PASSES OVERHEAD...WHICH WILL
ENHANCE INSTABILITY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO. THURSDAY WILL SEE LESS ACTIVITY...AND LITTLE THUNDER
CHANCE...AS COLD POOL SLIDES AWAY AND H500 HEIGHTS CONTINUE THEIR
RISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
H500 HEIGHTS RISE A BIT MORE FRIDAY..ALLOWING A FEW LOCATIONS TO
TOUCH THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS. ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS ONCE
AGAIN...PARTICULARLY IN THE NW. MODELS THEN HINT THAT THE TROUGH
GETS REINFORCED SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND...KNOCKING TEMPERATURES
BACK A COUPLE OF DEGREES. BETTER SHOWER CHANCES RETURN AS
WELL...WITH CHANCE POPS EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY AS MINOR WAVES ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROUGH. LEFT THUNDER OUT FOR NOW BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
OVER THE WEEKEND. ALL IN ALL...NO MAJOR SYSTEMS OR SUMMER HEAT
FORESEEN.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH THE MAIN SFC LOW PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA...DRIER AIR IS MOVING
IN ALOFT WITH CLOUD COVER AT VARYING STAGES. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ARE CONTINUING TO BREAK UP AND LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP.
EXPECTING STRATUS AND VIS RESTRICTIONS TO SPREAD THROUGHOUT...BUT
TIMING WILL BE DIFFICULT PINPOINT. SHOWER CHANCES WILL ALSO
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD AIR WILL GIVE RISE
TO SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW WILL COMBINE FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS TODAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WITH CLOUDS BREAKING UP TONIGHT.
TAX

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280834
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
434 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN TODAY WITH
A DRYING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FELT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...SO DO THE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT CLEARED THE AREA BY ABOUT 05Z. THE CURRENT
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE DRY CONVEYOR BELT PUSHING IN ACROSS OUR
SOUTH WORKING TOWARDS A TEMPORARY DRYING TREND...AND EVEN BREAKING
UP THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...ANOTHER VORT LOBE ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW IS SWINGING THROUGH LAKE ERIE CURRENTLY.
ALREADY SEEING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERATING OFF
OF RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAKING THEIR WAY ON SHORE NEAR
KCLE. HAVE THIS WAVE TIMED TO REACH OUR NWRN PERIPHERY BY ABOUT
09Z WITH SHOWER CHANCES INCREASING SOUTHWESTWARD ONCE AGAIN
THROUGH MID-MORNING. WHILE WE WILL SEE SPATIAL COVERAGE OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASE SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA TODAY...STRENGTH
WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS INSTABILITY WANES. EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS AS
THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND COLD AIR ADVECTS
IN BEHIND THE LOW. NEAR TERM MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE EROSION OF THE LLVL MOISTURE THIS EVENING AND THUS HAVE SPED
UP THE DRYING TREND TONIGHT.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST
DURING MIDWEEK...AS UPPER LOW CENTER SINKS SOUTHWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN END OF HUDSON BAY. ALTHOUGH WEAK VORT MAXES WILL BE
ROTATING THROUGH AND KEEPING THE TROUGH IN PLACE...H500 HEIGHTS
WILL BE ON A SLOW INCREASE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODERATING TREND
IN TEMPERATURES...FROM READINGS AROUND 70 ON TUESDAY TO THE UPPER
70S ON THURSDAY.

THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW DIURNALLY-FORCED ISOLATED
SHRA EACH AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO NW PA ON
TUESDAY AS MOISTURE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE IS BETTER...AND CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED IN
MOST AREAS. UPPER COLD POOL ALSO PASSES OVERHEAD...WHICH WILL
ENHANCE INSTABILITY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO. THURSDAY WILL SEE LESS ACTIVITY...AND LITTLE THUNDER
CHANCE...AS COLD POOL SLIDES AWAY AND H500 HEIGHTS CONTINUE THEIR
RISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
H500 HEIGHTS RISE A BIT MORE FRIDAY..ALLOWING A FEW LOCATIONS TO
TOUCH THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS. ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS ONCE
AGAIN...PARTICULARLY IN THE NW. MODELS THEN HINT THAT THE TROUGH
GETS REINFORCED SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND...KNOCKING TEMPERATURES
BACK A COUPLE OF DEGREES. BETTER SHOWER CHANCES RETURN AS
WELL...WITH CHANCE POPS EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY AS MINOR WAVES ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROUGH. LEFT THUNDER OUT FOR NOW BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
OVER THE WEEKEND. ALL IN ALL...NO MAJOR SYSTEMS OR SUMMER HEAT
FORESEEN.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH THE MAIN SFC LOW PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA...DRIER AIR IS MOVING
IN ALOFT WITH CLOUD COVER AT VARYING STAGES. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ARE CONTINUING TO BREAK UP AND LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP.
EXPECTING STRATUS AND VIS RESTRICTIONS TO SPREAD THROUGHOUT...BUT
TIMING WILL BE DIFFICULT PINPOINT. SHOWER CHANCES WILL ALSO
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD AIR WILL GIVE RISE
TO SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW WILL COMBINE FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS TODAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WITH CLOUDS BREAKING UP TONIGHT.
TAX

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280820
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
420 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TODAY...THEN STALLS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SFC COLD FRONT IS FINALLY APPROACHING THE WV/VA BORDER AS THE
REGION SITS WITHIN A SPLIT FLOW WITH BEST DYNAMICS FOR ONGOING
SHOWERS/STORMS STAYING WELL TO THE NORTH AND ALSO WELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST. IN ADDITION...CLOUD TOP WARMING HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES ACROSS CNTRL VA THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
AKQ VAD WIND PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG WLY WINDS FROM
900 MB ON UP...WHICH IS CAUSING DOWNSLOPE DRYING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
WAKEFIELD CWA. THEREFORE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS MOVING TWD THE
PIEDMONT AND FAR NRN COUNTIES HAVE ALL BUT DISAPPEARED AS OF
315 AM THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY REDEVELOP OVER FAR SE
VA/NE NC THIS AFTN AS THE FRONT MAKES IT TO THE COAST AND
INTERACTS WITH SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES AND THE MARINE BOUNDARY
LAYER...PRIMARILY 15-20 PERCENT WITH CHANCE WORDING RIGHT ALONG
ALBEMARLE SOUND.

A WLY 80-90 KT JET STREAK NOSING INTO CNTRL VA TODAY WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SUBSIDENCE OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW
DOWNSLOPE DRYING TO ENDURE AND RESULT IN BREEZY WEST WINDS AROUND
20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH BY THIS AFTN. THE WELL-MIXED
ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE NICELY WHILE DRIVING
DEWPOINTS DOWN DRAMATICALLY (UPPER 50S NW TO LOWER 60S SE)...AS
COMPARED TO THE PAST WEEK OR SO. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS AROUND 90
(UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES) UNDER MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE COAST THIS EVENING. SINCE MOST
SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTN SHOULD COME TO AN END BY SUNRISE OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. A COOLER AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS
AHEAD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S NW TO UPPER 60S SE AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
LIGHT NORTH WINDS DEVELOP BY TUESDAY AND WEAK CAA IS ANTICIPATED.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED AFTN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG CHES
BAY INTO FAR SE VA/NE NC AS THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SFC LOW
LINGERING ALONG THE NOW STALLED CAROLINA COASTAL FRONT. POPS ARE
CAPPED FROM 15-20 PERCENT AT BEST. TEMPS WILL FEEL COOL AND
COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER
70S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S INLAND/MID-UPPER 60S AT IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION WED/WED NIGHT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW-MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF OVR THE MID ATLC REGION WED NGT...WILL
RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND DEEPEN THU THRU SUN.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OFF THE MID ATLC CST WED NGT INTO
FRI...WILL DRIFT BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI THRU SUN. FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR WED NGT INTO FRI...THEN INCREASE TO SLGT CHC
OR CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT THRU SUN. STILL FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WED NGT
AND THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY/LO LVL MOIST RETURNS
FOR FRI THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID
80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S
THU MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DP LYRD WSW FLO OVR THE MDATLC RGN RESULTING IN ANY CONVECTION
EXITING THE MTNS THE PAST FEW HR TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES E TWD
THE CSTL PLAIN. NOT RULING OUT ISOLD SHRA/TSTM THROUGH EARLY/MID
MRNG E OF THE MTNS (MAYBE AGN LT AFTN/EARLY EVE FAR SE VA/CSTL NE
NC)...THOUGH PCPN CHCS LWRG. VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH TDA...GUSTY W
WNDS TO ABT 25 KT W/ LIMITED CLDNS. SFC CDFNT TO BE OFF THE CST BY
TNGT RESULTING IN WIND SHIFT TO NNW FOR TNGT/TUE...ALG W/ ONLY SCT
CLDNS (CONTD VFR CONDS).

DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST MIDWEEK. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG IS PSBL
NR SUNRISE BUT WIDESPREAD IFR NOT XPCD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A CDFNT PUSHES ACROSS THE MID ATLC WTRS BY LT THIS
AFTN/EVE...THEN WELL E OFF THE CST BY LATE TNGT/EARLY TUE. SURGE
IN SPEEDS ATTM W/ SW WNDS...RESULTING IN LO END SCA FOR THE
BAY/PORTION OF RIVERS. WNDS BECOME W TDA...XPCG SPEEDS TO WANE
THIS AFTN/EVE...THEN BECOME NW AND N TNGT INTO TUE MRNG. VRB
WINDS AOB 10 KT XCPD WED THRU THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280820
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
420 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TODAY...THEN STALLS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SFC COLD FRONT IS FINALLY APPROACHING THE WV/VA BORDER AS THE
REGION SITS WITHIN A SPLIT FLOW WITH BEST DYNAMICS FOR ONGOING
SHOWERS/STORMS STAYING WELL TO THE NORTH AND ALSO WELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST. IN ADDITION...CLOUD TOP WARMING HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES ACROSS CNTRL VA THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
AKQ VAD WIND PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG WLY WINDS FROM
900 MB ON UP...WHICH IS CAUSING DOWNSLOPE DRYING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
WAKEFIELD CWA. THEREFORE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS MOVING TWD THE
PIEDMONT AND FAR NRN COUNTIES HAVE ALL BUT DISAPPEARED AS OF
315 AM THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY REDEVELOP OVER FAR SE
VA/NE NC THIS AFTN AS THE FRONT MAKES IT TO THE COAST AND
INTERACTS WITH SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES AND THE MARINE BOUNDARY
LAYER...PRIMARILY 15-20 PERCENT WITH CHANCE WORDING RIGHT ALONG
ALBEMARLE SOUND.

A WLY 80-90 KT JET STREAK NOSING INTO CNTRL VA TODAY WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SUBSIDENCE OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW
DOWNSLOPE DRYING TO ENDURE AND RESULT IN BREEZY WEST WINDS AROUND
20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH BY THIS AFTN. THE WELL-MIXED
ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE NICELY WHILE DRIVING
DEWPOINTS DOWN DRAMATICALLY (UPPER 50S NW TO LOWER 60S SE)...AS
COMPARED TO THE PAST WEEK OR SO. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS AROUND 90
(UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES) UNDER MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE COAST THIS EVENING. SINCE MOST
SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTN SHOULD COME TO AN END BY SUNRISE OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. A COOLER AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS
AHEAD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S NW TO UPPER 60S SE AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
LIGHT NORTH WINDS DEVELOP BY TUESDAY AND WEAK CAA IS ANTICIPATED.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED AFTN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG CHES
BAY INTO FAR SE VA/NE NC AS THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SFC LOW
LINGERING ALONG THE NOW STALLED CAROLINA COASTAL FRONT. POPS ARE
CAPPED FROM 15-20 PERCENT AT BEST. TEMPS WILL FEEL COOL AND
COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER
70S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S INLAND/MID-UPPER 60S AT IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION WED/WED NIGHT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW-MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF OVR THE MID ATLC REGION WED NGT...WILL
RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND DEEPEN THU THRU SUN.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OFF THE MID ATLC CST WED NGT INTO
FRI...WILL DRIFT BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI THRU SUN. FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR WED NGT INTO FRI...THEN INCREASE TO SLGT CHC
OR CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT THRU SUN. STILL FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WED NGT
AND THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY/LO LVL MOIST RETURNS
FOR FRI THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID
80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S
THU MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DP LYRD WSW FLO OVR THE MDATLC RGN RESULTING IN ANY CONVECTION
EXITING THE MTNS THE PAST FEW HR TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES E TWD
THE CSTL PLAIN. NOT RULING OUT ISOLD SHRA/TSTM THROUGH EARLY/MID
MRNG E OF THE MTNS (MAYBE AGN LT AFTN/EARLY EVE FAR SE VA/CSTL NE
NC)...THOUGH PCPN CHCS LWRG. VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH TDA...GUSTY W
WNDS TO ABT 25 KT W/ LIMITED CLDNS. SFC CDFNT TO BE OFF THE CST BY
TNGT RESULTING IN WIND SHIFT TO NNW FOR TNGT/TUE...ALG W/ ONLY SCT
CLDNS (CONTD VFR CONDS).

DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST MIDWEEK. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG IS PSBL
NR SUNRISE BUT WIDESPREAD IFR NOT XPCD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A CDFNT PUSHES ACROSS THE MID ATLC WTRS BY LT THIS
AFTN/EVE...THEN WELL E OFF THE CST BY LATE TNGT/EARLY TUE. SURGE
IN SPEEDS ATTM W/ SW WNDS...RESULTING IN LO END SCA FOR THE
BAY/PORTION OF RIVERS. WNDS BECOME W TDA...XPCG SPEEDS TO WANE
THIS AFTN/EVE...THEN BECOME NW AND N TNGT INTO TUE MRNG. VRB
WINDS AOB 10 KT XCPD WED THRU THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB








000
FXUS61 KPHI 280806
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
406 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND
LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY, AND
REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR THROUGH THE END OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE MAJORITY OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO HEAD
OFFSHORE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL IMPULSE. THERE STILL
REMAINS ENOUGH INSTABILITY, MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE SHOWALTER LEVEL,
FOR MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS STILL WELL BACK IN WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE TOWARDS THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL SHOULD BE NEARBY DURING THE PEAK
HEATING HOURS TO ALLOW FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS, AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION...ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS TODAY AS THE BEST SHEAR AND VEERING WIND
PROFILES EXISTS TO OUR NORTH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE CENTER OF THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE WEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND BECOME GUSTY WITH A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERING
IN. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TAKE A WHILE TO RELAX LATER TONIGHT SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH DECOUPLING TO OCCUR...A WEAK AND SHALLOW INVERSION
MAY FORM ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS. CONTINUED MIXING SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING OFF THE TABLE TONIGHT,
THOUGH WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE CAN GIVE THE AIR
CONDITIONERS A BREAK. BLEND OF THE MET/MAV WAS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MOSTLY DRY START TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST, WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING LATER IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE AND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT, BUT
ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END BY MIDNIGHT.

MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AS PW
VALUES DROP TO AN INCH OR LOWER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT MAY
RETURN TO 1-1.25 INCHES FOR THURSDAY AND NEAR 1.5 INCHES FOR FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION, WHILE THE
BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THERE AREA NO SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSES THAT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, BUT
WITH THE TROUGH IN PLACE AND DAYTIME HEATING, THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
DAYTIME INSTABILITY TO CREATE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. EACH DAY THE CHANCES INCREASE SLIGHTLY
AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE. HOWEVER, WE DO NOT HAVE MORE THAN A SLIGHT
CHANCE PROBABILITY THROUGH FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.

AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WE GET A MORE SOLID RETURN OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA AS PW VALUES REBOUND O 1.25-1.5 INCHES. WE ALSO HAVE
A BETTER CHANCE OF VORTICITY IMPULSES AFFECTING OUR AREA WITHIN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, AND WITH THE COASTAL FRONT TRYING TO PUSH BACK
CLOSER TO SHOWER, WE MAY HAVE A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION TO FORM.
THEREFORE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED ARE FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS MORNING...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO APPROACH MVFR EARLY THIS
MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. MOST OF THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WELL TO OUR EAST WITH A FEW STRAY ONES ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. CIGS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
PA COULD END UP BEING IFR WITH ALL THE RAIN THAT FELL LAST EVENING,
BUT FOR THE TIME BEING DID NOT HIT THEM THAT HARD.

TODAY...VFR WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS VEERING TOWARDS THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE...MOSTLY NORTH AND WEST OF PHL.

TONIGHT...VFR. SHOULD LOSE GUSTS BY LATE THIS EVENING BUT KEEP
HIGHER SUSTAINED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE BOTH AFTERNOONS, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...WE CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT FOR ALL OUR WATERS TODAY, THOUGH
IT MAY BE A TAD TOUGHER TO REACH THE 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
WATERS THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. SURFACE COLD FRONT NEARS FROM THE
WEST LATER TODAY AND WINDS SHIFT TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST. GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT...UPWARDS OF 25
KNOTS...BETTER CHANCE NORTH.

TONIGHT...EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT FOR OUR NORTHERN TWO ZONES
THROUGH TONIGHT WHERE THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS AND
BETTER VERTICAL TRANSPORT MAY STILL OCCUR. SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT
LONGER TO COME DOWN, EVEN ONCE THE WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY-FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING, SUBSIDING AND REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/ROBERTSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 280806
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
406 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND
LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY, AND
REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR THROUGH THE END OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE MAJORITY OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO HEAD
OFFSHORE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL IMPULSE. THERE STILL
REMAINS ENOUGH INSTABILITY, MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE SHOWALTER LEVEL,
FOR MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS STILL WELL BACK IN WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE TOWARDS THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL SHOULD BE NEARBY DURING THE PEAK
HEATING HOURS TO ALLOW FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS, AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION...ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS TODAY AS THE BEST SHEAR AND VEERING WIND
PROFILES EXISTS TO OUR NORTH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE CENTER OF THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE WEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND BECOME GUSTY WITH A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERING
IN. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TAKE A WHILE TO RELAX LATER TONIGHT SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH DECOUPLING TO OCCUR...A WEAK AND SHALLOW INVERSION
MAY FORM ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS. CONTINUED MIXING SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING OFF THE TABLE TONIGHT,
THOUGH WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE CAN GIVE THE AIR
CONDITIONERS A BREAK. BLEND OF THE MET/MAV WAS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MOSTLY DRY START TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST, WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING LATER IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE AND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT, BUT
ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END BY MIDNIGHT.

MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AS PW
VALUES DROP TO AN INCH OR LOWER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT MAY
RETURN TO 1-1.25 INCHES FOR THURSDAY AND NEAR 1.5 INCHES FOR FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION, WHILE THE
BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THERE AREA NO SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSES THAT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, BUT
WITH THE TROUGH IN PLACE AND DAYTIME HEATING, THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
DAYTIME INSTABILITY TO CREATE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. EACH DAY THE CHANCES INCREASE SLIGHTLY
AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE. HOWEVER, WE DO NOT HAVE MORE THAN A SLIGHT
CHANCE PROBABILITY THROUGH FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.

AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WE GET A MORE SOLID RETURN OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA AS PW VALUES REBOUND O 1.25-1.5 INCHES. WE ALSO HAVE
A BETTER CHANCE OF VORTICITY IMPULSES AFFECTING OUR AREA WITHIN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, AND WITH THE COASTAL FRONT TRYING TO PUSH BACK
CLOSER TO SHOWER, WE MAY HAVE A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION TO FORM.
THEREFORE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED ARE FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS MORNING...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO APPROACH MVFR EARLY THIS
MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. MOST OF THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WELL TO OUR EAST WITH A FEW STRAY ONES ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. CIGS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
PA COULD END UP BEING IFR WITH ALL THE RAIN THAT FELL LAST EVENING,
BUT FOR THE TIME BEING DID NOT HIT THEM THAT HARD.

TODAY...VFR WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS VEERING TOWARDS THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE...MOSTLY NORTH AND WEST OF PHL.

TONIGHT...VFR. SHOULD LOSE GUSTS BY LATE THIS EVENING BUT KEEP
HIGHER SUSTAINED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE BOTH AFTERNOONS, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...WE CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT FOR ALL OUR WATERS TODAY, THOUGH
IT MAY BE A TAD TOUGHER TO REACH THE 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
WATERS THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. SURFACE COLD FRONT NEARS FROM THE
WEST LATER TODAY AND WINDS SHIFT TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST. GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT...UPWARDS OF 25
KNOTS...BETTER CHANCE NORTH.

TONIGHT...EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT FOR OUR NORTHERN TWO ZONES
THROUGH TONIGHT WHERE THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS AND
BETTER VERTICAL TRANSPORT MAY STILL OCCUR. SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT
LONGER TO COME DOWN, EVEN ONCE THE WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY-FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING, SUBSIDING AND REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/ROBERTSON






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280805
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
405 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TODAY...THEN STALLS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SFC COLD FRONT IS FINALLY APPROACHING THE WV/VA BORDER AS THE
REGION SITS WITHIN A SPLIT FLOW WITH BEST DYNAMICS FOR ONGOING
SHOWERS/STORMS STAYING WELL TO THE NORTH AND ALSO WELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST. IN ADDITION...CLOUD TOP WARMING HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES ACROSS CNTRL VA THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
AKQ VAD WIND PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG WLY WINDS FROM
900 MB ON UP...WHICH IS CAUSING DOWNSLOPE DRYING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
WAKEFIELD CWA. THEREFORE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS MOVING TWD THE
PIEDMONT AND FAR NRN COUNTIES HAVE ALL BUT DISAPPEARED AS OF
315 AM THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY REDEVELOP OVER FAR SE
VA/NE NC THIS AFTN AS THE FRONT MAKES IT TO THE COAST AND
INTERACTS WITH SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES AND THE MARINE BOUNDARY
LAYER...PRIMARILY 15-20 PERCENT WITH CHANCE WORDING RIGHT ALONG
ALBEMARLE SOUND.

A WLY 80-90 KT JET STREAK NOSING INTO CNTRL VA TODAY WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SUBSIDENCE OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW
DOWNSLOPE DRYING TO ENDURE AND RESULT IN BREEZY WEST WINDS AROUND
20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH BY THIS AFTN. THE WELL-MIXED
ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE NICELY WHILE DRIVING
DEWPOINTS DOWN DRAMATICALLY (UPPER 50S NW TO LOWER 60S SE)...AS
COMPARED TO THE PAST WEEK OR SO. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS AROUND 90
(UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES) UNDER MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE COAST THIS EVENING. SINCE MOST
SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTN SHOULD COME TO AN END BY SUNRISE OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. A COOLER AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS
AHEAD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S NW TO UPPER 60S SE AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
LIGHT NORTH WINDS DEVELOP BY TUESDAY AND WEAK CAA IS ANTICIPATED.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED AFTN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG CHES
BAY INTO FAR SE VA/NE NC AS THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SFC LOW
LINGERING ALONG THE NOW STALLED CAROLINA COASTAL FRONT. POPS ARE
CAPPED FROM 15-20 PERCENT AT BEST. TEMPS WILL FEEL COOL AND
COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER
70S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S INLAND/MID-UPPER 60S AT IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION WED/WED NIGHT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW-MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF OVR THE MID ATLC REGION WED NGT...WILL
RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND DEEPEN THU THRU SUN.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OFF THE MID ATLC CST WED NGT INTO
FRI...WILL DRIFT BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI THRU SUN. FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR WED NGT INTO FRI...THEN INCREASE TO SLGT CHC
OR CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT THRU SUN. STILL FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WED NGT
AND THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY/LO LVL MOIST RETURNS
FOR FRI THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID
80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S
THU MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DP LYRD WSW FLO OVR THE MDATLC RGN RESULTING IN ANY CONVECTION
EXITING THE MTNS THE PAST FEW HR TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES E TWD
THE CSTL PLAIN. NOT RULING OUT ISOLD SHRA/TSTM THROUGH EARLY/MID
MRNG E OF THE MTNS (MAYBE AGN LT AFTN/EARLY EVE FAR SE VA/CSTL NE
NC)...THOUGH PCPN CHCS LWRG. VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH TDA...GUSTY W
WNDS TO ABT 25 KT W/ LIMITED CLDNS. SFC CDFNT TO BE OFF THE CST BY
TNGT RESULTING IN WIND SHIFT TO NNW FOR TNGT/TUE...ALG W/ ONLY SCT
CLDNS (CONTD VFR CONDS).

DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST MIDWEEK. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG IS PSBL
NR SUNRISE BUT WIDESPREAD IFR NOT XPCD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A CDFNT PUSHES APPROACHES THE MID ATLC WTRS BY LT THIS AFTN/EVE...
THEN WELL E OFF THE CST BY LATE TNGT/EARLY TUE. SSW WINDS 10 TO
20 KT BECOME W TDA...THEN NW AND N MON NGT INTO TUE MRNG. VRB
WINDS AOB 10 KT XCPD WED THRU THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280805
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
405 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TODAY...THEN STALLS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SFC COLD FRONT IS FINALLY APPROACHING THE WV/VA BORDER AS THE
REGION SITS WITHIN A SPLIT FLOW WITH BEST DYNAMICS FOR ONGOING
SHOWERS/STORMS STAYING WELL TO THE NORTH AND ALSO WELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST. IN ADDITION...CLOUD TOP WARMING HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES ACROSS CNTRL VA THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
AKQ VAD WIND PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG WLY WINDS FROM
900 MB ON UP...WHICH IS CAUSING DOWNSLOPE DRYING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
WAKEFIELD CWA. THEREFORE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS MOVING TWD THE
PIEDMONT AND FAR NRN COUNTIES HAVE ALL BUT DISAPPEARED AS OF
315 AM THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY REDEVELOP OVER FAR SE
VA/NE NC THIS AFTN AS THE FRONT MAKES IT TO THE COAST AND
INTERACTS WITH SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES AND THE MARINE BOUNDARY
LAYER...PRIMARILY 15-20 PERCENT WITH CHANCE WORDING RIGHT ALONG
ALBEMARLE SOUND.

A WLY 80-90 KT JET STREAK NOSING INTO CNTRL VA TODAY WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SUBSIDENCE OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW
DOWNSLOPE DRYING TO ENDURE AND RESULT IN BREEZY WEST WINDS AROUND
20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH BY THIS AFTN. THE WELL-MIXED
ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE NICELY WHILE DRIVING
DEWPOINTS DOWN DRAMATICALLY (UPPER 50S NW TO LOWER 60S SE)...AS
COMPARED TO THE PAST WEEK OR SO. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS AROUND 90
(UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES) UNDER MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE COAST THIS EVENING. SINCE MOST
SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTN SHOULD COME TO AN END BY SUNRISE OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. A COOLER AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS
AHEAD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S NW TO UPPER 60S SE AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
LIGHT NORTH WINDS DEVELOP BY TUESDAY AND WEAK CAA IS ANTICIPATED.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED AFTN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG CHES
BAY INTO FAR SE VA/NE NC AS THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SFC LOW
LINGERING ALONG THE NOW STALLED CAROLINA COASTAL FRONT. POPS ARE
CAPPED FROM 15-20 PERCENT AT BEST. TEMPS WILL FEEL COOL AND
COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER
70S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S INLAND/MID-UPPER 60S AT IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION WED/WED NIGHT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW-MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF OVR THE MID ATLC REGION WED NGT...WILL
RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND DEEPEN THU THRU SUN.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OFF THE MID ATLC CST WED NGT INTO
FRI...WILL DRIFT BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI THRU SUN. FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR WED NGT INTO FRI...THEN INCREASE TO SLGT CHC
OR CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT THRU SUN. STILL FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WED NGT
AND THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY/LO LVL MOIST RETURNS
FOR FRI THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID
80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S
THU MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DP LYRD WSW FLO OVR THE MDATLC RGN RESULTING IN ANY CONVECTION
EXITING THE MTNS THE PAST FEW HR TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES E TWD
THE CSTL PLAIN. NOT RULING OUT ISOLD SHRA/TSTM THROUGH EARLY/MID
MRNG E OF THE MTNS (MAYBE AGN LT AFTN/EARLY EVE FAR SE VA/CSTL NE
NC)...THOUGH PCPN CHCS LWRG. VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH TDA...GUSTY W
WNDS TO ABT 25 KT W/ LIMITED CLDNS. SFC CDFNT TO BE OFF THE CST BY
TNGT RESULTING IN WIND SHIFT TO NNW FOR TNGT/TUE...ALG W/ ONLY SCT
CLDNS (CONTD VFR CONDS).

DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST MIDWEEK. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG IS PSBL
NR SUNRISE BUT WIDESPREAD IFR NOT XPCD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A CDFNT PUSHES APPROACHES THE MID ATLC WTRS BY LT THIS AFTN/EVE...
THEN WELL E OFF THE CST BY LATE TNGT/EARLY TUE. SSW WINDS 10 TO
20 KT BECOME W TDA...THEN NW AND N MON NGT INTO TUE MRNG. VRB
WINDS AOB 10 KT XCPD WED THRU THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB









000
FXUS61 KLWX 280748
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
348 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. DRIER WEATHER WILL MOVE
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR MIDWEEK...
BRINGING COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

RGN ESCAPED THE SVR THREAT SUN NGT - RCVD A REPORT OF A TRE DOWN
IN BALT CO. STILL WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO RCV MORE REPORTS AFTR
SUNRISE...BUT OVERALL THE BULLET WAS DODGED.

LOW PRES NOW OVR LAKE ERIE W/ AN ATTENDANT CD FNT MOVG INTO WRN
PA. THIS WL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE CWA TDA...MOVG OFFSHORE BY EARLY
EVE. THERE COULD BE SOME INSTABILITY DRIVEN SHOWERS THIS AFTN...W/
THE PSBLTY OF IN-CLD LTNG BUT NO SVR THREAT. AS HAS OFTEN BEEN THE
CASE THIS MONTH TEMPS WL TOP OUT BLO CLIMO NORMS - GNRLY LM80S...
U80S PSBL IN THE CITIES...MU70S IN THE MTNS. IN ADTN IT WL BECOME
BRZY AFTR MID MRNG IN THE POST FNTL AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

JUL IS WINDING DOWN...AND FOR THE E CST IT WL DO SO UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UNUSUALLY LARGE UPR LVL TROF. THIS WL KEEP TEMPS
BLO NRML. XPCT TO SEE CLDS BRK UP DURG EVE HRS...M CLR OVRNGT AND
DURG THE MRNG..THEN A CU FIELD DVLP DURG THE AFTN..ESPECIALLY OVR
THE MTNS AND CLOSE TO THE PA BRDR.

LOWS IN THE 50S...L60S IN THE CITIES AND ALONG THE BAY. HIGHS
75-80. AT A TIME OF THE YR WHERE HIGHS CAN REACH THE U90S (HIGH
TEMPS 7/29/2011: DCA 104..BWI 101..IAD 103...ALL RECORDS). HOPEFULLY
WE`LL ALL GET A CHC TO GET OUTSIDE AND ENJOY THE UPCOMING WX.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

MODELS INDICATE THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE BACK WEST OF
THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
RE-ESTABLISHES ITS HOLD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES BACK/REDEVELOPS TO OUR WEST...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
INCREASING THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AS WELL AS THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND
WOULD SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THE LONG AND
PERSISTENT TRAJECTORY OF WIND OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDING ALONG
A STALLED OR SLOW-MOVING FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

AT 06Z VLIFR CONDS OCCURRING AT MRB. AS THE FNT DRAWS CLOSER THIS
SHOULD PROMOTE MIXING AND CONDS SHOULD BE IMPRVG BY SUNRISE.
ELSEWHERE CONDS ARE VFR. WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE FOR SOME AFTN
INSTABILITY RW TO DVLP. WINDS WL TURN TO THE NW W/ GUSTS OVR 20 KT
FM MID MRNG THRU LATE AFTN.

VFR CONDS XPCTD FOR MUCH OF THE WK AHD.

&&

.MARINE...

SCA WINDS XPCTD TDA - FOR THE RMNDR OF THE OVRNGT THRU MID MRNG
FOR THE LWR PTMC/WIDER PART OF THE CHES BAY...AND THEN FOR ALL OF
THE WATERS FOR THE LATE MRNG/AFTN AS A CD FNT MOVES THRU.

NO PROBS FORESEEN THEREAFTER THRU THU.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ530-531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 280748
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
348 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. DRIER WEATHER WILL MOVE
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR MIDWEEK...
BRINGING COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

RGN ESCAPED THE SVR THREAT SUN NGT - RCVD A REPORT OF A TRE DOWN
IN BALT CO. STILL WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO RCV MORE REPORTS AFTR
SUNRISE...BUT OVERALL THE BULLET WAS DODGED.

LOW PRES NOW OVR LAKE ERIE W/ AN ATTENDANT CD FNT MOVG INTO WRN
PA. THIS WL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE CWA TDA...MOVG OFFSHORE BY EARLY
EVE. THERE COULD BE SOME INSTABILITY DRIVEN SHOWERS THIS AFTN...W/
THE PSBLTY OF IN-CLD LTNG BUT NO SVR THREAT. AS HAS OFTEN BEEN THE
CASE THIS MONTH TEMPS WL TOP OUT BLO CLIMO NORMS - GNRLY LM80S...
U80S PSBL IN THE CITIES...MU70S IN THE MTNS. IN ADTN IT WL BECOME
BRZY AFTR MID MRNG IN THE POST FNTL AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

JUL IS WINDING DOWN...AND FOR THE E CST IT WL DO SO UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UNUSUALLY LARGE UPR LVL TROF. THIS WL KEEP TEMPS
BLO NRML. XPCT TO SEE CLDS BRK UP DURG EVE HRS...M CLR OVRNGT AND
DURG THE MRNG..THEN A CU FIELD DVLP DURG THE AFTN..ESPECIALLY OVR
THE MTNS AND CLOSE TO THE PA BRDR.

LOWS IN THE 50S...L60S IN THE CITIES AND ALONG THE BAY. HIGHS
75-80. AT A TIME OF THE YR WHERE HIGHS CAN REACH THE U90S (HIGH
TEMPS 7/29/2011: DCA 104..BWI 101..IAD 103...ALL RECORDS). HOPEFULLY
WE`LL ALL GET A CHC TO GET OUTSIDE AND ENJOY THE UPCOMING WX.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

MODELS INDICATE THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE BACK WEST OF
THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
RE-ESTABLISHES ITS HOLD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES BACK/REDEVELOPS TO OUR WEST...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
INCREASING THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AS WELL AS THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND
WOULD SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THE LONG AND
PERSISTENT TRAJECTORY OF WIND OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDING ALONG
A STALLED OR SLOW-MOVING FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

AT 06Z VLIFR CONDS OCCURRING AT MRB. AS THE FNT DRAWS CLOSER THIS
SHOULD PROMOTE MIXING AND CONDS SHOULD BE IMPRVG BY SUNRISE.
ELSEWHERE CONDS ARE VFR. WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE FOR SOME AFTN
INSTABILITY RW TO DVLP. WINDS WL TURN TO THE NW W/ GUSTS OVR 20 KT
FM MID MRNG THRU LATE AFTN.

VFR CONDS XPCTD FOR MUCH OF THE WK AHD.

&&

.MARINE...

SCA WINDS XPCTD TDA - FOR THE RMNDR OF THE OVRNGT THRU MID MRNG
FOR THE LWR PTMC/WIDER PART OF THE CHES BAY...AND THEN FOR ALL OF
THE WATERS FOR THE LATE MRNG/AFTN AS A CD FNT MOVES THRU.

NO PROBS FORESEEN THEREAFTER THRU THU.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ530-531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/HTS








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280610
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
210 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN TODAY WITH
A DRYING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FELT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...SO DO THE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT CLEARED THE AREA BY ABOUT 05Z. THE CURRENT
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE DRY CONVEYOR BELT PUSHING IN ACROSS OUR
SOUTH WORKING TOWARDS A TEMPORARY DRYING TREND...AND EVEN BREAKING
UP THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...ANOTHER VORT LOBE ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW IS SWINGING THROUGH LAKE ERIE CURRENTLY.
ALREADY SEEING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERATING OFF
OF RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAKING THEIR WAY ON SHORE NEAR
KCLE. HAVE THIS WAVE TIMED TO REACH OUR NWRN PERIPHERY BY ABOUT
09Z WITH SHOWER CHANCES INCREASING SOUTHWESTWARD ONCE AGAIN
THROUGH MID-MORNING. WHILE WE WILL SEE SPATIAL COVERAGE OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASE SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA TODAY...STRENGTH
WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS INSTABILITY WANES. EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS AS
THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND COLD AIR ADVECTS
IN BEHIND THE LOW. NEAR TERM MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE EROSION OF THE LLVL MOISTURE THIS EVENING AND THUS HAVE SPED
UP THE DRYING TREND TONIGHT.
TAX



&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE EXITING TROUGH ON
MONDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY MONDAY AND WITH LOTS OF CLOUD
COVER...STORM THREAT SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED.

SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

TUESDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND
COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY. WARMER AIR AND THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH THE MAIN SFC LOW PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA...DRIER AIR IS MOVING
IN ALOFT WITH CLOUD COVER AT VARYING STAGES. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ARE CONTINUING TO BREAK UP AND LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP.
EXPECTING STRATUS AND VIS RESTRICTIONS TO SPREAD THROUGHOUT...BUT
TIMING WILL BE DIFFICULT PINPOINT. SHOWER CHANCES WILL ALSO
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD AIR WILL GIVE RISE
TO SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW WILL COMBINE FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS TODAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WITH CLOUDS BREAKING UP TONIGHT.
TAX

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280610
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
210 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN TODAY WITH
A DRYING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FELT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...SO DO THE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT CLEARED THE AREA BY ABOUT 05Z. THE CURRENT
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE DRY CONVEYOR BELT PUSHING IN ACROSS OUR
SOUTH WORKING TOWARDS A TEMPORARY DRYING TREND...AND EVEN BREAKING
UP THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...ANOTHER VORT LOBE ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW IS SWINGING THROUGH LAKE ERIE CURRENTLY.
ALREADY SEEING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERATING OFF
OF RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAKING THEIR WAY ON SHORE NEAR
KCLE. HAVE THIS WAVE TIMED TO REACH OUR NWRN PERIPHERY BY ABOUT
09Z WITH SHOWER CHANCES INCREASING SOUTHWESTWARD ONCE AGAIN
THROUGH MID-MORNING. WHILE WE WILL SEE SPATIAL COVERAGE OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASE SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA TODAY...STRENGTH
WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS INSTABILITY WANES. EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS AS
THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND COLD AIR ADVECTS
IN BEHIND THE LOW. NEAR TERM MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE EROSION OF THE LLVL MOISTURE THIS EVENING AND THUS HAVE SPED
UP THE DRYING TREND TONIGHT.
TAX



&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE EXITING TROUGH ON
MONDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY MONDAY AND WITH LOTS OF CLOUD
COVER...STORM THREAT SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED.

SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

TUESDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND
COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY. WARMER AIR AND THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH THE MAIN SFC LOW PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA...DRIER AIR IS MOVING
IN ALOFT WITH CLOUD COVER AT VARYING STAGES. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ARE CONTINUING TO BREAK UP AND LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP.
EXPECTING STRATUS AND VIS RESTRICTIONS TO SPREAD THROUGHOUT...BUT
TIMING WILL BE DIFFICULT PINPOINT. SHOWER CHANCES WILL ALSO
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD AIR WILL GIVE RISE
TO SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW WILL COMBINE FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS TODAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WITH CLOUDS BREAKING UP TONIGHT.
TAX

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280543
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
143 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY...THEN STALLS OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATED SFC COLD FRONT WELL OFF TO OUR WEST FROM
WESTERN LAKE ERIE EXTENDING SW DOWN THROUGH OHIO AND INTO KENTUCKY.
FLOW ALOFT IS WESTERLY. AKQ VAD WIND PROFILE AND 00Z AREA SOUNDINGS
SHOWS STRONG WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM 900
MB ON UP...WHICH DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR BULK OF PRECIP HOLDING
TOGETHER THIS SIDE OF THE MTNS OVERNIGHT.

OVERALL...SEVERE THREAT (AND CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP) IS
WANING FOR THE AKQ CWA. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA FROM ABOUT 11 PM THROUGH 3 AM...BASED
ON AREA OF STORMS SEEN ON RADAR AND IR SATELLITE OVER THE NORTHERN
1/2 OF WV MOVING FROM WNW TO ESE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. WILL
CARRY 50-60% POPS ACRS THE FAR NORTH FOR THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE...LARGE
AREA OF CONVECTION IN NC WILL MISS MOST OF THE CWA TO THE SOUTH
PER CURRENT STORM MOTION/CORFIDI VECTORS. HAVE DROPPED POPS OFF TO
AROUND 40% FOR MOST OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC (WAS GOING TO DROP
IT EVEN FURTHER BUT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
SOME NEW ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN WV/ERN KY WILL MAINTAIN
THESE 40% POPS. WHILE SHEAR REMAINS IMPRESSIVE OVERNIGHT...INSTABILITY
WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WITH DOUBTS DEVELOPING AS TO PRECIP
COVERAGE...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST. WILL CONTINUE WITH
HWO MENTION OF POSSIBLE STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAINLY FOR
DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THAT THERE WILL BE STRONG WINDS NOT FAR OFF
THE SFC. LOWS IN THE U60S NW TO THE LWR-MID 70S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT / LEADING TROF PROGGED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY MORN...
TAKING MOST IF NOT ALL PCPN WITH IT. THIS ENDS ANY SVR THREAT ACROSS
THE AREA. GIVEN LINGERING UPR LVL NRGY & MSTR...KEPT LOW CHC POPS
FAR EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH A PERIOD
OF NO POPS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTN...FOLLOWED BY 20%/SLIGHT
CHC POPS MAINLY ALONG IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS DRNG THE MID-LATE
AFTN. GIVEN INCREASING AMTS OF AFTRN SUN & A DOWNSLOPING WEST
WIND...TMPS XPCTD TO WARM INTO THE U80S-L90S.

MODELS DVLP SCT CONVECTION ALONG THE STALLED FRNTL MON EVENING SO
HAVE CONFINED LOW CHC POPS TO COUNTIES BORDERING ALBEMARLE SND.
OTW...PT CLDY & COOLER. WEAK CAA SEEN AS WINDS BECOME NORTH. LOWS
IN THE 60S.

UPR LVL COOL POOL WILL COMBINE WITH DYTME HTNG AND LINGERING
TROFINESS OVR THE FA FOR ISLTD POPS TUE AFTRN. CAPPED POPS AT 20%
FOR NOW. PT SUNNY WITH BLO NRML TMPS. HIGHS IN THE L80S XCPT U70S
AT THE BEACHES. M CLR TO PT CLDY TUE NITE AND RTHR COMFY FOR LATE
JULY. LOWS M50S-M60S.

MSTLY SUNNY WITH BLO NRML TMPS WED AS HIGH PRS BUILDS OVR THE RGN.
HIGHS L-M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF OVR THE MID ATLC REGION WED NGT...WILL
RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND DEEPEN THU THRU SUN.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OFF THE MID ATLC CST WED NGT INTO
FRI...WILL DRIFT BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI THRU SUN. FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR WED NGT INTO FRI...THEN INCREASE TO SLGT CHC
OR CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT THRU SUN. STILL FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WED NGT
AND THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY/LO LVL MOIST RETURNS
FOR FRI THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID
80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S
THU MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DP LYRD WSW FLO OVR THE MDATLC RGN RESULTING IN ANY CONVECTION
EXITING THE MTNS THE PAST FEW HR TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES E TWD
THE CSTL PLAIN. NOT RULING OUT ISOLD SHRA/TSTM THROUGH EARLY/MID
MRNG E OF THE MTNS (MAYBE AGN LT AFTN/EARLY EVE FAR SE VA/CSTL NE
NC)...THOUGH PCPN CHCS LWRG. VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH TDA...GUSTY W
WNDS TO ABT 25 KT W/ LIMITED CLDNS. SFC CDFNT TO BE OFF THE CST BY
TNGT RESULTING IN WIND SHIFT TO NNW FOR TNGT/TUE...ALG W/ ONLY SCT
CLDNS (CONTD VFR CONDS).

DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST MIDWEEK. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG IS PSBL
NR SUNRISE BUT WIDESPREAD IFR NOT XPCD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU TUE. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FM THE NW THIS EVENG...THEN CROSSES THE WTRS AND
OFF THE CST MON INTO MON NGT. SSW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT THRU TNGT. WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE W DURING MON...THEN NW AND N MON NGT INTO TUE MRNG.
NNE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS EXPECTED TUE THRU WED. SE OR E WINDS 10 KT
OR LESS WED NGT THRU THU NGT...BEFORE BECOMING NE AGAIN ON FRI.
WAVES 1 TO 3 FT...AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...TMG















000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280543
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
143 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY...THEN STALLS OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATED SFC COLD FRONT WELL OFF TO OUR WEST FROM
WESTERN LAKE ERIE EXTENDING SW DOWN THROUGH OHIO AND INTO KENTUCKY.
FLOW ALOFT IS WESTERLY. AKQ VAD WIND PROFILE AND 00Z AREA SOUNDINGS
SHOWS STRONG WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM 900
MB ON UP...WHICH DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR BULK OF PRECIP HOLDING
TOGETHER THIS SIDE OF THE MTNS OVERNIGHT.

OVERALL...SEVERE THREAT (AND CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP) IS
WANING FOR THE AKQ CWA. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA FROM ABOUT 11 PM THROUGH 3 AM...BASED
ON AREA OF STORMS SEEN ON RADAR AND IR SATELLITE OVER THE NORTHERN
1/2 OF WV MOVING FROM WNW TO ESE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. WILL
CARRY 50-60% POPS ACRS THE FAR NORTH FOR THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE...LARGE
AREA OF CONVECTION IN NC WILL MISS MOST OF THE CWA TO THE SOUTH
PER CURRENT STORM MOTION/CORFIDI VECTORS. HAVE DROPPED POPS OFF TO
AROUND 40% FOR MOST OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC (WAS GOING TO DROP
IT EVEN FURTHER BUT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
SOME NEW ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN WV/ERN KY WILL MAINTAIN
THESE 40% POPS. WHILE SHEAR REMAINS IMPRESSIVE OVERNIGHT...INSTABILITY
WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WITH DOUBTS DEVELOPING AS TO PRECIP
COVERAGE...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST. WILL CONTINUE WITH
HWO MENTION OF POSSIBLE STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAINLY FOR
DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THAT THERE WILL BE STRONG WINDS NOT FAR OFF
THE SFC. LOWS IN THE U60S NW TO THE LWR-MID 70S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT / LEADING TROF PROGGED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY MORN...
TAKING MOST IF NOT ALL PCPN WITH IT. THIS ENDS ANY SVR THREAT ACROSS
THE AREA. GIVEN LINGERING UPR LVL NRGY & MSTR...KEPT LOW CHC POPS
FAR EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH A PERIOD
OF NO POPS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTN...FOLLOWED BY 20%/SLIGHT
CHC POPS MAINLY ALONG IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS DRNG THE MID-LATE
AFTN. GIVEN INCREASING AMTS OF AFTRN SUN & A DOWNSLOPING WEST
WIND...TMPS XPCTD TO WARM INTO THE U80S-L90S.

MODELS DVLP SCT CONVECTION ALONG THE STALLED FRNTL MON EVENING SO
HAVE CONFINED LOW CHC POPS TO COUNTIES BORDERING ALBEMARLE SND.
OTW...PT CLDY & COOLER. WEAK CAA SEEN AS WINDS BECOME NORTH. LOWS
IN THE 60S.

UPR LVL COOL POOL WILL COMBINE WITH DYTME HTNG AND LINGERING
TROFINESS OVR THE FA FOR ISLTD POPS TUE AFTRN. CAPPED POPS AT 20%
FOR NOW. PT SUNNY WITH BLO NRML TMPS. HIGHS IN THE L80S XCPT U70S
AT THE BEACHES. M CLR TO PT CLDY TUE NITE AND RTHR COMFY FOR LATE
JULY. LOWS M50S-M60S.

MSTLY SUNNY WITH BLO NRML TMPS WED AS HIGH PRS BUILDS OVR THE RGN.
HIGHS L-M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF OVR THE MID ATLC REGION WED NGT...WILL
RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND DEEPEN THU THRU SUN.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OFF THE MID ATLC CST WED NGT INTO
FRI...WILL DRIFT BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI THRU SUN. FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR WED NGT INTO FRI...THEN INCREASE TO SLGT CHC
OR CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT THRU SUN. STILL FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WED NGT
AND THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY/LO LVL MOIST RETURNS
FOR FRI THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID
80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S
THU MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DP LYRD WSW FLO OVR THE MDATLC RGN RESULTING IN ANY CONVECTION
EXITING THE MTNS THE PAST FEW HR TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES E TWD
THE CSTL PLAIN. NOT RULING OUT ISOLD SHRA/TSTM THROUGH EARLY/MID
MRNG E OF THE MTNS (MAYBE AGN LT AFTN/EARLY EVE FAR SE VA/CSTL NE
NC)...THOUGH PCPN CHCS LWRG. VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH TDA...GUSTY W
WNDS TO ABT 25 KT W/ LIMITED CLDNS. SFC CDFNT TO BE OFF THE CST BY
TNGT RESULTING IN WIND SHIFT TO NNW FOR TNGT/TUE...ALG W/ ONLY SCT
CLDNS (CONTD VFR CONDS).

DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST MIDWEEK. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG IS PSBL
NR SUNRISE BUT WIDESPREAD IFR NOT XPCD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU TUE. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FM THE NW THIS EVENG...THEN CROSSES THE WTRS AND
OFF THE CST MON INTO MON NGT. SSW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT THRU TNGT. WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE W DURING MON...THEN NW AND N MON NGT INTO TUE MRNG.
NNE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS EXPECTED TUE THRU WED. SE OR E WINDS 10 KT
OR LESS WED NGT THRU THU NGT...BEFORE BECOMING NE AGAIN ON FRI.
WAVES 1 TO 3 FT...AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...TMG
















000
FXUS61 KPHI 280455
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1255 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND
LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY, AND
REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR THROUGH THE END OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WE HAVE CANCELLED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AT THIS TIME WITH
A MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION NOW HEADING INTO SOUTH AND CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS STILL
OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS, SO THEY ARE NOTHING TO SNEEZE AT. THEY
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARDS THE EAST-NORTHEAST DURING THE COURSE
OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THERE STILL REMAINS AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE WITH NEGATIVE LIS
AND SHOWALTER INDEXES, SO MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FROM WEST TO
EAST...WELL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE ANOMALOUS STRONG 500MB TROF WILL
PASS ACROSS OUR CWA ON MONDAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS (SELF DESTRUCT
SUNSHINE) WILL BE REACHED EASY AND EARLY. THE OVERALL FCST CAPE AND
INSTAB ALOFT ON THE BIG THREE MODELS ARE NOT UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR
THUNDER. OTHER THAN SOME EARLY THUNDER NORTHEAST CWA, WE KEPT IT AS
SHOWERS WITH HIGHEST POPS NORTHWEST THE REST OF THE DAY.

STAT GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS APPEARS TOO HIGH IN THE SERN CWA UNLESS
THE COLD FRONT IS 2-4HRS SLOWER THAN PROGGED. WE WERE LOWER THAN GFS
MOS THERE AND CLOSE TO A STAT GUIDANCE BLEND ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MOSTLY DRY START TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST, WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING LATER IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE AND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT, BUT
ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END BY MIDNIGHT.

MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AS PW
VALUES DROP TO AN INCH OR LOWER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT MAY
RETURN TO 1-1.25 INCHES FOR THURSDAY AND NEAR 1.5 INCHES FOR FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION, WHILE THE
BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THERE AREA NO SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSES THAT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, BUT
WITH THE TROUGH IN PLACE AND DAYTIME HEATING, THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
DAYTIME INSTABILITY TO CREATE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. EACH DAY THE CHANCES INCREASE SLIGHTLY
AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE. HOWEVER, WE DO NOT HAVE MORE THAN A SLIGHT
CHANCE PROBABILITY THROUGH FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.

AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WE GET A MORE SOLID RETURN OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA AS PW VALUES REBOUND O 1.25-1.5 INCHES. WE ALSO HAVE
A BETTER CHANCE OF VORTICITY IMPULSES AFFECTING OUR AREA WITHIN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, AND WITH THE COASTAL FRONT TRYING TO PUSH BACK
CLOSER TO SHOWER, WE MAY HAVE A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION TO FORM.
THEREFORE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED ARE FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAS PASSED THROUGH MOST OF OUR I-95
CORRIDOR TERMINALS AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARDS THE EAST
EARLY THIS MORNING. OVERNIGHT PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE,
BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AS TO WHERE OR WHEN TO INCLUDE. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER, GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH. IMPROVEMENT TOWARD MORNING
AS PCPN ENDS. THINKING TOO MUCH WIND FOR SGFCNT FOG TO FORM.

MONDAY MORNING, VFR CONDITIONS WITH A CUMULUS BASED CIG OCCURRING.
GUSTY WEST WINDS, ESPECIALLY FOR JULY, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
AROUND 15 KTS AND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS. SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS SHOULD START DEVELOPING TOWARD THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF
FCST PERIOD. GREATEST CONFIDENCE NORTH, REASON FOR NOW LEFT OUT OF
KPHL TAF.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE BOTH AFTERNOONS, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY FOR THE
OCEAN WATERS. ONE WILL BE ISSUED FOR DELAWARE BAY FOR MONDAY. FIRST
FOR THE LIKELIHOOD THAT SEAS REACH 5 FEET THIS EVENING AND THEN THE
LIKELIHOOD OF NON CONVECTIVE WEST WIND GUSTS REACHING THE CRITERIA
ON DELAWARE BAY AS WELL AS THE OCEAN WATERS DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE BRINGS SIX FOOT SEAS AS IS INTO OUR
COASTAL WATERS, SHAVING A FOOT OR SO OFF WOULD STILL GET US THERE
TONIGHT. TOUGH NIGHT AS IT IS WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. ON MONDAY
MORE OF THE GUSTINESS MAY BE CONCENTRATED AROUND THE INLETS AND IN
DELAWARE BAY WITH POSSIBLY LESS GUSTINESS FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE
GRADIENT AND WINDS SHOULD START RELAXING LATER IN THE DAY ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT, SUBSIDING AND REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...GIGI/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 280455
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1255 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND
LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY, AND
REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR THROUGH THE END OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WE HAVE CANCELLED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AT THIS TIME WITH
A MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION NOW HEADING INTO SOUTH AND CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS STILL
OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS, SO THEY ARE NOTHING TO SNEEZE AT. THEY
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARDS THE EAST-NORTHEAST DURING THE COURSE
OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THERE STILL REMAINS AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE WITH NEGATIVE LIS
AND SHOWALTER INDEXES, SO MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FROM WEST TO
EAST...WELL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE ANOMALOUS STRONG 500MB TROF WILL
PASS ACROSS OUR CWA ON MONDAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS (SELF DESTRUCT
SUNSHINE) WILL BE REACHED EASY AND EARLY. THE OVERALL FCST CAPE AND
INSTAB ALOFT ON THE BIG THREE MODELS ARE NOT UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR
THUNDER. OTHER THAN SOME EARLY THUNDER NORTHEAST CWA, WE KEPT IT AS
SHOWERS WITH HIGHEST POPS NORTHWEST THE REST OF THE DAY.

STAT GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS APPEARS TOO HIGH IN THE SERN CWA UNLESS
THE COLD FRONT IS 2-4HRS SLOWER THAN PROGGED. WE WERE LOWER THAN GFS
MOS THERE AND CLOSE TO A STAT GUIDANCE BLEND ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MOSTLY DRY START TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST, WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING LATER IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE AND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT, BUT
ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END BY MIDNIGHT.

MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AS PW
VALUES DROP TO AN INCH OR LOWER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT MAY
RETURN TO 1-1.25 INCHES FOR THURSDAY AND NEAR 1.5 INCHES FOR FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION, WHILE THE
BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THERE AREA NO SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSES THAT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, BUT
WITH THE TROUGH IN PLACE AND DAYTIME HEATING, THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
DAYTIME INSTABILITY TO CREATE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. EACH DAY THE CHANCES INCREASE SLIGHTLY
AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE. HOWEVER, WE DO NOT HAVE MORE THAN A SLIGHT
CHANCE PROBABILITY THROUGH FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.

AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WE GET A MORE SOLID RETURN OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA AS PW VALUES REBOUND O 1.25-1.5 INCHES. WE ALSO HAVE
A BETTER CHANCE OF VORTICITY IMPULSES AFFECTING OUR AREA WITHIN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, AND WITH THE COASTAL FRONT TRYING TO PUSH BACK
CLOSER TO SHOWER, WE MAY HAVE A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION TO FORM.
THEREFORE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED ARE FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAS PASSED THROUGH MOST OF OUR I-95
CORRIDOR TERMINALS AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARDS THE EAST
EARLY THIS MORNING. OVERNIGHT PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE,
BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AS TO WHERE OR WHEN TO INCLUDE. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER, GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH. IMPROVEMENT TOWARD MORNING
AS PCPN ENDS. THINKING TOO MUCH WIND FOR SGFCNT FOG TO FORM.

MONDAY MORNING, VFR CONDITIONS WITH A CUMULUS BASED CIG OCCURRING.
GUSTY WEST WINDS, ESPECIALLY FOR JULY, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
AROUND 15 KTS AND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS. SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS SHOULD START DEVELOPING TOWARD THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF
FCST PERIOD. GREATEST CONFIDENCE NORTH, REASON FOR NOW LEFT OUT OF
KPHL TAF.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE BOTH AFTERNOONS, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY FOR THE
OCEAN WATERS. ONE WILL BE ISSUED FOR DELAWARE BAY FOR MONDAY. FIRST
FOR THE LIKELIHOOD THAT SEAS REACH 5 FEET THIS EVENING AND THEN THE
LIKELIHOOD OF NON CONVECTIVE WEST WIND GUSTS REACHING THE CRITERIA
ON DELAWARE BAY AS WELL AS THE OCEAN WATERS DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE BRINGS SIX FOOT SEAS AS IS INTO OUR
COASTAL WATERS, SHAVING A FOOT OR SO OFF WOULD STILL GET US THERE
TONIGHT. TOUGH NIGHT AS IT IS WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. ON MONDAY
MORE OF THE GUSTINESS MAY BE CONCENTRATED AROUND THE INLETS AND IN
DELAWARE BAY WITH POSSIBLY LESS GUSTINESS FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE
GRADIENT AND WINDS SHOULD START RELAXING LATER IN THE DAY ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT, SUBSIDING AND REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...GIGI/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON






000
FXUS61 KLWX 280451
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1251 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IS POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH AN ASOCIATED COLD
FRONT ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

AFTR CONSULTATION W/ SPC THE TOR WTCH HAS BEEN DROPPED FOR THE SRN
PART OF OUR FCST AREA.

COLD FRONT LIKELY WON/T MAKE IT INTO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

THE TROUGH WILL BE OVER NY MONDAY WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST. AS ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MONDAY
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY I-66
AND NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

FCST MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE HIGHLANDS
TO THE LOW 60S NEAR THE METROS AND WATERS. NRLY WINDS WIL CONTINUE
TUESDAY AND TEMPS WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S WHICH WILL FEEL
LIKE A FALL DAY FOR THE MID-ATLATNIC.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

MEAN TROUGHING WILL PERSIST ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. DRY AIR AND NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY AND COOLER
THAN NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD.

MODELS INDICATE THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE BACK WEST OF
THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
RE-ESTABLISHES ITS HOLD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES BACK/REDEVELOPS TO OUR WEST...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
INCREASING THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AS WELL AS THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND
WOULD SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THE LONG AND
PERSISTENT TRAJECTORY OF WIND OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDING ALONG
A STALLED OR SLOW-MOVING FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TSTMS HV WEAKENED. CD FNT IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED W.V. AND WL MOVE
THRU THE MID ATLC STATES DURG THE MRNG HRS.

SHRA AND -TSRA POSSIBLE MONDAY AS ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
NW WINDS AROUND 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINALS.

NW FLOW GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS W/ VFR TUE-THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY CHANNELLING WILL LIKELY SUPPORT OCCASIONAL SCA GUSTS ON THE
BAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME NWLY MONDAY BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. AN SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE WATERS MONDAY.

RELATIVELY BENIGN SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NEARBY OR OVERHEAD TUE NIGHT-FRI IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS. WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE NEXT
WEEKEND...POSSIBLY TO SCA LEVELS BUT THAT IS UNCLEAR THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES HAVE DECREASED TO AROUND 1/2 FT ON THE WESTERN SHORE OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. AT HIGH TIDE...WATER LEVELS WOULD REMAIN BELOW
MINOR TIDAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS WITH THESE ANOMALIES.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ530-531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...BPP/HAS/DFH








000
FXUS61 KLWX 280451
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1251 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IS POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH AN ASOCIATED COLD
FRONT ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

AFTR CONSULTATION W/ SPC THE TOR WTCH HAS BEEN DROPPED FOR THE SRN
PART OF OUR FCST AREA.

COLD FRONT LIKELY WON/T MAKE IT INTO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

THE TROUGH WILL BE OVER NY MONDAY WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST. AS ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MONDAY
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY I-66
AND NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

FCST MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE HIGHLANDS
TO THE LOW 60S NEAR THE METROS AND WATERS. NRLY WINDS WIL CONTINUE
TUESDAY AND TEMPS WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S WHICH WILL FEEL
LIKE A FALL DAY FOR THE MID-ATLATNIC.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

MEAN TROUGHING WILL PERSIST ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. DRY AIR AND NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY AND COOLER
THAN NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD.

MODELS INDICATE THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE BACK WEST OF
THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
RE-ESTABLISHES ITS HOLD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES BACK/REDEVELOPS TO OUR WEST...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
INCREASING THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AS WELL AS THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND
WOULD SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THE LONG AND
PERSISTENT TRAJECTORY OF WIND OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDING ALONG
A STALLED OR SLOW-MOVING FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TSTMS HV WEAKENED. CD FNT IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED W.V. AND WL MOVE
THRU THE MID ATLC STATES DURG THE MRNG HRS.

SHRA AND -TSRA POSSIBLE MONDAY AS ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
NW WINDS AROUND 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINALS.

NW FLOW GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS W/ VFR TUE-THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY CHANNELLING WILL LIKELY SUPPORT OCCASIONAL SCA GUSTS ON THE
BAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME NWLY MONDAY BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. AN SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE WATERS MONDAY.

RELATIVELY BENIGN SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NEARBY OR OVERHEAD TUE NIGHT-FRI IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS. WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE NEXT
WEEKEND...POSSIBLY TO SCA LEVELS BUT THAT IS UNCLEAR THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES HAVE DECREASED TO AROUND 1/2 FT ON THE WESTERN SHORE OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. AT HIGH TIDE...WATER LEVELS WOULD REMAIN BELOW
MINOR TIDAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS WITH THESE ANOMALIES.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ530-531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...BPP/HAS/DFH









000
FXUS61 KLWX 280324
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1124 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HAVE CANCELLED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH GIVEN RADAR TRENDS WITHIN
THIS AREA. WILL CONTINUE THE TORNADO WATCH FOR NOW GIVEN UPSTREAM
CONVECTION IN WV AND GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF DECENT SHEAR IN THIS
AREA.

PREV...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO MOVE INTO/DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CWA THAN SOME GUIDANCE HAD EARLIER SUGGESTED. HAVE HAD ONE CELL IN
WV /IN THE WATCH AREA/ THAT WE HAVE WARNED ON AND THAT HAS BEEN
THE STRONGEST CELL WITHIN OUR CWA THUS FAR.

18Z KIAD RAOB REVEALED A CAP ACROSS THE CWA /AND SOME DRY AIR TOO/...BUT
THAT CAP HAD DISAPPEARED BASED ON THE 00Z KIAD RAOB. DESPITE THE
SETTING OF THE SUN...EXPECTATION IS FOR AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION
DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING AS LARGER SCALE LIFT AND SHEAR
INCREASE. WITH THIS...THE SEVERE RISK WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA AND COULD ALSO EVENTUALLY SPREAD FURTHER DOWNSTREAM OF
THE CURRENT WATCH EARLY TONIGHT.

ACTUAL COLD FRONT LIKELY WON/T MAKE IT INTO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE TROUGH WILL BE OVER NY MONDAY AND WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST. AS ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
MONDAY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
I-66 AND NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

FCST MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE HIGHLANDS
TO THE LOW 60S NEAR THE METROS AND WATERS. NRLY WINDS WIL CONTINUE
TUESDAY AND TEMPS WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S WHICH WILL FEEL
LIKE A FALL DAY FOR THE MID-ATLATNIC.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEAN TROUGHING WILL PERSIST ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. DRY AIR AND NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY AND COOLER
THAN NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD.

MODELS INDICATE THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE BACK WEST OF
THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
RE-ESTABLISHES ITS HOLD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES BACK/REDEVELOPS TO OUR WEST...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
INCREASING THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AS WELL AS THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND
WOULD SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THE LONG AND
PERSISTENT TRAJECTORY OF WIND OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDING ALONG
A STALLED OR SLOW-MOVING FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHALLENGING THUNDERSTORM FORECAST THIS EVENING. HAD BACKED OFF ON
TSRA A COUPLE OF HOURS IN 00Z TAFS. WHILE THERE STILL REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE AND TIMING...CONTINUED THE OVERALL TREND IN
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING...WITH
POTENTIAL IMPACT AT HUBS MAINLY 02Z-06Z TIME FRAME.

N-NW WINDS WILL MOVE IN AS A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS MONDAY.
SHRA AND -TSRA IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AS ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
NW WINDS AROUND 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINALS.

NW FLOW GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS W/ VFR TUE-THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY CHANNELLING WILL LIKELY SUPPORT OCCASIONAL SCA GUSTS UP
THE BAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ANY LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS. WINDS WILL
BECOME NWLY MONDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. A SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL THE WATERS MONDAY.

RELATIVELY BENIGN SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NEARBY OR OVERHEAD TUE NIGHT-FRI IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS. WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE NEXT
WEEKEND...POSSIBLY TO SCA LEVELS BUT THAT IS UNCLEAR THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES HAVE DECREASED TO AROUND 1/2 FT ON THE WESTERN SHORE OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. AT HIGH TIDE...WATER LEVELS WOULD REMAIN BELOW
MINOR TIDAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS WITH THESE ANOMALIES.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...BPP/HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...BPP/HAS/DFH
MARINE...BPP/HAS/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...








000
FXUS61 KLWX 280324
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1124 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HAVE CANCELLED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH GIVEN RADAR TRENDS WITHIN
THIS AREA. WILL CONTINUE THE TORNADO WATCH FOR NOW GIVEN UPSTREAM
CONVECTION IN WV AND GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF DECENT SHEAR IN THIS
AREA.

PREV...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO MOVE INTO/DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CWA THAN SOME GUIDANCE HAD EARLIER SUGGESTED. HAVE HAD ONE CELL IN
WV /IN THE WATCH AREA/ THAT WE HAVE WARNED ON AND THAT HAS BEEN
THE STRONGEST CELL WITHIN OUR CWA THUS FAR.

18Z KIAD RAOB REVEALED A CAP ACROSS THE CWA /AND SOME DRY AIR TOO/...BUT
THAT CAP HAD DISAPPEARED BASED ON THE 00Z KIAD RAOB. DESPITE THE
SETTING OF THE SUN...EXPECTATION IS FOR AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION
DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING AS LARGER SCALE LIFT AND SHEAR
INCREASE. WITH THIS...THE SEVERE RISK WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA AND COULD ALSO EVENTUALLY SPREAD FURTHER DOWNSTREAM OF
THE CURRENT WATCH EARLY TONIGHT.

ACTUAL COLD FRONT LIKELY WON/T MAKE IT INTO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE TROUGH WILL BE OVER NY MONDAY AND WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST. AS ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
MONDAY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
I-66 AND NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

FCST MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE HIGHLANDS
TO THE LOW 60S NEAR THE METROS AND WATERS. NRLY WINDS WIL CONTINUE
TUESDAY AND TEMPS WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S WHICH WILL FEEL
LIKE A FALL DAY FOR THE MID-ATLATNIC.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEAN TROUGHING WILL PERSIST ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. DRY AIR AND NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY AND COOLER
THAN NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD.

MODELS INDICATE THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE BACK WEST OF
THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
RE-ESTABLISHES ITS HOLD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES BACK/REDEVELOPS TO OUR WEST...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
INCREASING THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AS WELL AS THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND
WOULD SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THE LONG AND
PERSISTENT TRAJECTORY OF WIND OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDING ALONG
A STALLED OR SLOW-MOVING FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHALLENGING THUNDERSTORM FORECAST THIS EVENING. HAD BACKED OFF ON
TSRA A COUPLE OF HOURS IN 00Z TAFS. WHILE THERE STILL REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE AND TIMING...CONTINUED THE OVERALL TREND IN
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING...WITH
POTENTIAL IMPACT AT HUBS MAINLY 02Z-06Z TIME FRAME.

N-NW WINDS WILL MOVE IN AS A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS MONDAY.
SHRA AND -TSRA IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AS ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
NW WINDS AROUND 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINALS.

NW FLOW GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS W/ VFR TUE-THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY CHANNELLING WILL LIKELY SUPPORT OCCASIONAL SCA GUSTS UP
THE BAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ANY LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS. WINDS WILL
BECOME NWLY MONDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. A SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL THE WATERS MONDAY.

RELATIVELY BENIGN SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NEARBY OR OVERHEAD TUE NIGHT-FRI IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS. WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE NEXT
WEEKEND...POSSIBLY TO SCA LEVELS BUT THAT IS UNCLEAR THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES HAVE DECREASED TO AROUND 1/2 FT ON THE WESTERN SHORE OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. AT HIGH TIDE...WATER LEVELS WOULD REMAIN BELOW
MINOR TIDAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS WITH THESE ANOMALIES.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...BPP/HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...BPP/HAS/DFH
MARINE...BPP/HAS/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KLWX 280207
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1007 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
TORNADO WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS...CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA
FOOTHILLS TIL 3 AM GIVEN UPSTREAM CONVECTION EXPECTED TO MOVE E/SE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

PREV...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
AND WESTERN MARYLAND...THE EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE AND
INTO THE NORTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY OF VIRGINIA UNTIL 2 AM.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO MOVE INTO/DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA
THAN SOME GUIDANCE HAD EARLIER SUGGESTED. HAVE HAD ONE CELL IN WV /IN
THE WATCH AREA/ THAT WE HAVE WARNED ON AND THAT HAS BEEN THE
STRONGEST CELL WITHIN OUR CWA THUS FAR.

18Z KIAD RAOB REVEALED A CAP ACROSS THE CWA /AND SOME DRY AIR TOO/...BUT
THAT CAP HAD DISAPPEARED BASED ON THE 00Z KIAD RAOB. DESPITE THE
SETTING OF THE SUN...EXPECTATION IS FOR AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION
DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING AS LARGER SCALE LIFT AND SHEAR
INCREASE. WITH THIS...THE SEVERE RISK WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA AND COULD ALSO EVENTUALLY SPREAD FURTHER DOWNSTREAM OF
THE CURRENT WATCH EARLY TONIGHT.

ACTUAL COLD FRONT LIKELY WON/T MAKE IT INTO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE TROUGH WILL BE OVER NY MONDAY AND WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST. AS ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
MONDAY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
I-66 AND NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

FCST MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE HIGHLANDS
TO THE LOW 60S NEAR THE METROS AND WATERS. NRLY WINDS WIL CONTINUE
TUESDAY AND TEMPS WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S WHICH WILL FEEL
LIKE A FALL DAY FOR THE MID-ATLATNIC.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEAN TROUGHING WILL PERSIST ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. DRY AIR AND NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY AND COOLER
THAN NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD.

MODELS INDICATE THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE BACK WEST OF
THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
RE-ESTABLISHES ITS HOLD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES BACK/REDEVELOPS TO OUR WEST...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
INCREASING THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AS WELL AS THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND
WOULD SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THE LONG AND
PERSISTENT TRAJECTORY OF WIND OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDING ALONG
A STALLED OR SLOW-MOVING FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHALLENGING THUNDERSTORM FORECAST THIS EVENING. HAD BACKED OFF ON
TSRA A COUPLE OF HOURS IN 00Z TAFS. WHILE THERE STILL REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE AND TIMING...CONTINUED THE OVERALL TREND IN
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING...WITH
POTENTIAL IMPACT AT HUBS MAINLY 02Z-06Z TIME FRAME.

N-NW WINDS WILL MOVE IN AS A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS MONDAY.
SHRA AND -TSRA IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AS ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
NW WINDS AROUND 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINALS.

NW FLOW GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS W/ VFR TUE-THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY CHANNELLING WILL LIKELY SUPPORT OCCASIONAL SCA GUSTS UP
THE BAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ANY LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS. WINDS WILL
BECOME NWLY MONDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. A SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL THE WATERS MONDAY.

RELATIVELY BENIGN SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NEARBY OR OVERHEAD TUE NIGHT-FRI IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS. WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE NEXT
WEEKEND...POSSIBLY TO SCA LEVELS BUT THAT IS UNCLEAR THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES HAVE DECREASED TO AROUND 1/2 FT ON THE WESTERN SHORE OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. AT HIGH TIDE...WATER LEVELS WOULD REMAIN BELOW
MINOR TIDAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS WITH THESE ANOMALIES.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...BPP/HAS/DFH
MARINE...BPP/HAS/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BPP







000
FXUS61 KLWX 280207
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1007 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
TORNADO WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS...CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA
FOOTHILLS TIL 3 AM GIVEN UPSTREAM CONVECTION EXPECTED TO MOVE E/SE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

PREV...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
AND WESTERN MARYLAND...THE EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE AND
INTO THE NORTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY OF VIRGINIA UNTIL 2 AM.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO MOVE INTO/DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA
THAN SOME GUIDANCE HAD EARLIER SUGGESTED. HAVE HAD ONE CELL IN WV /IN
THE WATCH AREA/ THAT WE HAVE WARNED ON AND THAT HAS BEEN THE
STRONGEST CELL WITHIN OUR CWA THUS FAR.

18Z KIAD RAOB REVEALED A CAP ACROSS THE CWA /AND SOME DRY AIR TOO/...BUT
THAT CAP HAD DISAPPEARED BASED ON THE 00Z KIAD RAOB. DESPITE THE
SETTING OF THE SUN...EXPECTATION IS FOR AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION
DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING AS LARGER SCALE LIFT AND SHEAR
INCREASE. WITH THIS...THE SEVERE RISK WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA AND COULD ALSO EVENTUALLY SPREAD FURTHER DOWNSTREAM OF
THE CURRENT WATCH EARLY TONIGHT.

ACTUAL COLD FRONT LIKELY WON/T MAKE IT INTO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE TROUGH WILL BE OVER NY MONDAY AND WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST. AS ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
MONDAY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
I-66 AND NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

FCST MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE HIGHLANDS
TO THE LOW 60S NEAR THE METROS AND WATERS. NRLY WINDS WIL CONTINUE
TUESDAY AND TEMPS WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S WHICH WILL FEEL
LIKE A FALL DAY FOR THE MID-ATLATNIC.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEAN TROUGHING WILL PERSIST ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. DRY AIR AND NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY AND COOLER
THAN NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD.

MODELS INDICATE THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE BACK WEST OF
THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
RE-ESTABLISHES ITS HOLD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES BACK/REDEVELOPS TO OUR WEST...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
INCREASING THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AS WELL AS THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND
WOULD SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THE LONG AND
PERSISTENT TRAJECTORY OF WIND OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDING ALONG
A STALLED OR SLOW-MOVING FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHALLENGING THUNDERSTORM FORECAST THIS EVENING. HAD BACKED OFF ON
TSRA A COUPLE OF HOURS IN 00Z TAFS. WHILE THERE STILL REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE AND TIMING...CONTINUED THE OVERALL TREND IN
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING...WITH
POTENTIAL IMPACT AT HUBS MAINLY 02Z-06Z TIME FRAME.

N-NW WINDS WILL MOVE IN AS A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS MONDAY.
SHRA AND -TSRA IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AS ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
NW WINDS AROUND 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINALS.

NW FLOW GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS W/ VFR TUE-THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY CHANNELLING WILL LIKELY SUPPORT OCCASIONAL SCA GUSTS UP
THE BAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ANY LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS. WINDS WILL
BECOME NWLY MONDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. A SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL THE WATERS MONDAY.

RELATIVELY BENIGN SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NEARBY OR OVERHEAD TUE NIGHT-FRI IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS. WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE NEXT
WEEKEND...POSSIBLY TO SCA LEVELS BUT THAT IS UNCLEAR THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES HAVE DECREASED TO AROUND 1/2 FT ON THE WESTERN SHORE OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. AT HIGH TIDE...WATER LEVELS WOULD REMAIN BELOW
MINOR TIDAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS WITH THESE ANOMALIES.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...BPP/HAS/DFH
MARINE...BPP/HAS/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BPP








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280142
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
942 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME SEVERE...WILL PLAGUE THE
UPPER OHIO REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO ADVANCE
TOWARD THE AREA...WHICH HAS BROUGHT ABOUT A SECONDARY INCREASE IN
STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. WHILE
THESE STORMS RAGED OFF OF LAKE ERIE WITH MULTIPLE HOOK ECHOES IN A
LINE ECHO WAVE PATTERN OVER THE WARM LAKE...THIS HAS LARGELY
TURNED INTO BOWING SEGMENTS THAT WILL HAVE INCREASING DIFFICULTY
MANAGING ANY DOWNBURSTS TOWARD THE GROUND AS THEY ENCOUNTER
PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE LOW LEVELS MOVING DEEPER INTO OHIO AND
PENNSYLVANIA. AS SUCH TORNADO WATCH 447 WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE/WAS
CANCELLED FOR OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

FARTHER SOUTH...850 MB CONVERGENCE IS MANAGING TO MAINTAIN A LINE
OF PREFERRED DEVELOPMENT THAT BISECT TUCKER COUNTY WEST VIRGINIA.
HERE...AMPLE INSTABILITY AND A STILL FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE AHEAD
OF THE INCOMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MANAGED TO MAINTAIN ROTATING
UPDRAFTS ALONG SAID CONVERGENCE AREA. AS SUCH...TUCKER COUNTY WAS
PUT INTO A BRAND NEW TORNADO WATCH 551.  FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE EXITING TROUGH ON
MONDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY MONDAY AND WITH LOTS OF CLOUD
COVER...STORM THREAT SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED.

SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

TUESDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND
COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY. WARMER AIR AND THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BASICALLY MOVED AWAY FROM MOST TERMINALS
EXCEPT KFKL. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE FROM THE WEST...WHICH WILL
BRING ANOTHER SHOT AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
NIGHTTIME...WITH STRATUS AND VIS RESTRICTIONS LIKELY OVERNIGHT
TOWARD MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS. SHOWER CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD AIR REMAINS
OVERHEAD. FRIES

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY MON AS A CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280142
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
942 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME SEVERE...WILL PLAGUE THE
UPPER OHIO REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO ADVANCE
TOWARD THE AREA...WHICH HAS BROUGHT ABOUT A SECONDARY INCREASE IN
STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. WHILE
THESE STORMS RAGED OFF OF LAKE ERIE WITH MULTIPLE HOOK ECHOES IN A
LINE ECHO WAVE PATTERN OVER THE WARM LAKE...THIS HAS LARGELY
TURNED INTO BOWING SEGMENTS THAT WILL HAVE INCREASING DIFFICULTY
MANAGING ANY DOWNBURSTS TOWARD THE GROUND AS THEY ENCOUNTER
PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE LOW LEVELS MOVING DEEPER INTO OHIO AND
PENNSYLVANIA. AS SUCH TORNADO WATCH 447 WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE/WAS
CANCELLED FOR OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

FARTHER SOUTH...850 MB CONVERGENCE IS MANAGING TO MAINTAIN A LINE
OF PREFERRED DEVELOPMENT THAT BISECT TUCKER COUNTY WEST VIRGINIA.
HERE...AMPLE INSTABILITY AND A STILL FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE AHEAD
OF THE INCOMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MANAGED TO MAINTAIN ROTATING
UPDRAFTS ALONG SAID CONVERGENCE AREA. AS SUCH...TUCKER COUNTY WAS
PUT INTO A BRAND NEW TORNADO WATCH 551.  FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE EXITING TROUGH ON
MONDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY MONDAY AND WITH LOTS OF CLOUD
COVER...STORM THREAT SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED.

SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

TUESDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND
COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY. WARMER AIR AND THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BASICALLY MOVED AWAY FROM MOST TERMINALS
EXCEPT KFKL. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE FROM THE WEST...WHICH WILL
BRING ANOTHER SHOT AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
NIGHTTIME...WITH STRATUS AND VIS RESTRICTIONS LIKELY OVERNIGHT
TOWARD MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS. SHOWER CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD AIR REMAINS
OVERHEAD. FRIES

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY MON AS A CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280142
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
942 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME SEVERE...WILL PLAGUE THE
UPPER OHIO REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO ADVANCE
TOWARD THE AREA...WHICH HAS BROUGHT ABOUT A SECONDARY INCREASE IN
STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. WHILE
THESE STORMS RAGED OFF OF LAKE ERIE WITH MULTIPLE HOOK ECHOES IN A
LINE ECHO WAVE PATTERN OVER THE WARM LAKE...THIS HAS LARGELY
TURNED INTO BOWING SEGMENTS THAT WILL HAVE INCREASING DIFFICULTY
MANAGING ANY DOWNBURSTS TOWARD THE GROUND AS THEY ENCOUNTER
PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE LOW LEVELS MOVING DEEPER INTO OHIO AND
PENNSYLVANIA. AS SUCH TORNADO WATCH 447 WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE/WAS
CANCELLED FOR OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

FARTHER SOUTH...850 MB CONVERGENCE IS MANAGING TO MAINTAIN A LINE
OF PREFERRED DEVELOPMENT THAT BISECT TUCKER COUNTY WEST VIRGINIA.
HERE...AMPLE INSTABILITY AND A STILL FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE AHEAD
OF THE INCOMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MANAGED TO MAINTAIN ROTATING
UPDRAFTS ALONG SAID CONVERGENCE AREA. AS SUCH...TUCKER COUNTY WAS
PUT INTO A BRAND NEW TORNADO WATCH 551.  FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE EXITING TROUGH ON
MONDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY MONDAY AND WITH LOTS OF CLOUD
COVER...STORM THREAT SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED.

SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

TUESDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND
COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY. WARMER AIR AND THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BASICALLY MOVED AWAY FROM MOST TERMINALS
EXCEPT KFKL. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE FROM THE WEST...WHICH WILL
BRING ANOTHER SHOT AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
NIGHTTIME...WITH STRATUS AND VIS RESTRICTIONS LIKELY OVERNIGHT
TOWARD MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS. SHOWER CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD AIR REMAINS
OVERHEAD. FRIES

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY MON AS A CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280142
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
942 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME SEVERE...WILL PLAGUE THE
UPPER OHIO REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO ADVANCE
TOWARD THE AREA...WHICH HAS BROUGHT ABOUT A SECONDARY INCREASE IN
STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. WHILE
THESE STORMS RAGED OFF OF LAKE ERIE WITH MULTIPLE HOOK ECHOES IN A
LINE ECHO WAVE PATTERN OVER THE WARM LAKE...THIS HAS LARGELY
TURNED INTO BOWING SEGMENTS THAT WILL HAVE INCREASING DIFFICULTY
MANAGING ANY DOWNBURSTS TOWARD THE GROUND AS THEY ENCOUNTER
PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE LOW LEVELS MOVING DEEPER INTO OHIO AND
PENNSYLVANIA. AS SUCH TORNADO WATCH 447 WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE/WAS
CANCELLED FOR OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

FARTHER SOUTH...850 MB CONVERGENCE IS MANAGING TO MAINTAIN A LINE
OF PREFERRED DEVELOPMENT THAT BISECT TUCKER COUNTY WEST VIRGINIA.
HERE...AMPLE INSTABILITY AND A STILL FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE AHEAD
OF THE INCOMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MANAGED TO MAINTAIN ROTATING
UPDRAFTS ALONG SAID CONVERGENCE AREA. AS SUCH...TUCKER COUNTY WAS
PUT INTO A BRAND NEW TORNADO WATCH 551.  FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE EXITING TROUGH ON
MONDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY MONDAY AND WITH LOTS OF CLOUD
COVER...STORM THREAT SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED.

SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

TUESDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND
COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY. WARMER AIR AND THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BASICALLY MOVED AWAY FROM MOST TERMINALS
EXCEPT KFKL. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE FROM THE WEST...WHICH WILL
BRING ANOTHER SHOT AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
NIGHTTIME...WITH STRATUS AND VIS RESTRICTIONS LIKELY OVERNIGHT
TOWARD MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS. SHOWER CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD AIR REMAINS
OVERHEAD. FRIES

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY MON AS A CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280108
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
908 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY...THEN STALLS OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATED SFC COLD FRONT WELL OFF TO OUR WEST FROM
WESTERN LAKE ERIE EXTENDING SW DOWN THROUGH OHIO AND INTO KENTUCKY.
FLOW ALOFT IS WESTERLY. AKQ VAD WIND PROFILE AND 00Z AREA SOUNDINGS
SHOWS STRONG WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM 900
MB ON UP...WHICH DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR BULK OF PRECIP HOLDING
TOGETHER THIS SIDE OF THE MTNS OVERNIGHT.

OVERALL...SEVERE THREAT (AND CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP) IS
WANING FOR THE AKQ CWA. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA FROM ABOUT 11 PM THROUGH 3 AM...BASED
ON AREA OF STORMS SEEN ON RADAR AND IR SATELLITE OVER THE NORTHERN
1/2 OF WV MOVING FROM WNW TO ESE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. WILL
CARRY 50-60% POPS ACRS THE FAR NORTH FOR THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE...LARGE
AREA OF CONVECTION IN NC WILL MISS MOST OF THE CWA TO THE SOUTH
PER CURRENT STORM MOTION/CORFIDI VECTORS. HAVE DROPPED POPS OFF TO
AROUND 40% FOR MOST OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC (WAS GOING TO DROP
IT EVEN FURTHER BUT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
SOME NEW ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN WV/ERN KY WILL MAINTAIN
THESE 40% POPS. WHILE SHEAR REMAINS IMPRESSIVE OVERNIGHT...INSTABILITY
WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WITH DOUBTS DEVELOPING AS TO PRECIP
COVERAGE...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST. WILL CONTINUE WITH
HWO MENTION OF POSSIBLE STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAINLY FOR
DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THAT THERE WILL BE STRONG WINDS NOT FAR OFF
THE SFC. LOWS IN THE U60S NW TO THE LWR-MID 70S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT / LEADING TROF PROGGED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY MORN...
TAKING MOST IF NOT ALL PCPN WITH IT. THIS ENDS ANY SVR THREAT ACROSS
THE AREA. GIVEN LINGERING UPR LVL NRGY & MSTR...KEPT LOW CHC POPS
FAR EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH A PERIOD
OF NO POPS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTN...FOLLOWED BY 20%/SLIGHT
CHC POPS MAINLY ALONG IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS DRNG THE MID-LATE
AFTN. GIVEN INCREASING AMTS OF AFTRN SUN & A DOWNSLOPING WEST
WIND...TMPS XPCTD TO WARM INTO THE U80S-L90S.

MODELS DVLP SCT CONVECTION ALONG THE STALLED FRNTL MON EVENING SO
HAVE CONFINED LOW CHC POPS TO COUNTIES BORDERING ALBEMARLE SND.
OTW...PT CLDY & COOLER. WEAK CAA SEEN AS WINDS BECOME NORTH. LOWS
IN THE 60S.

UPR LVL COOL POOL WILL COMBINE WITH DYTME HTNG AND LINGERING
TROFINESS OVR THE FA FOR ISLTD POPS TUE AFTRN. CAPPED POPS AT 20%
FOR NOW. PT SUNNY WITH BLO NRML TMPS. HIGHS IN THE L80S XCPT U70S
AT THE BEACHES. M CLR TO PT CLDY TUE NITE AND RTHR COMFY FOR LATE
JULY. LOWS M50S-M60S.

MSTLY SUNNY WITH BLO NRML TMPS WED AS HIGH PRS BUILDS OVR THE RGN.
HIGHS L-M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF OVR THE MID ATLC REGION WED NGT...WILL
RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND DEEPEN THU THRU SUN.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OFF THE MID ATLC CST WED NGT INTO
FRI...WILL DRIFT BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI THRU SUN. FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR WED NGT INTO FRI...THEN INCREASE TO SLGT CHC
OR CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT THRU SUN. STILL FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WED NGT
AND THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY/LO LVL MOIST RETURNS
FOR FRI THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID
80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S
THU MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING WITH RADAR SHOWING NO WX
OVER THE AKQ CWA. HOWEVER A LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVG THRU
KY/TN AND SW VA WILL MOVE ESE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MOST OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE CWA...BUT
PSBL AFFECTING ECG EARLY MORNING. ALSO...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT AND INTO CENTRL VA BY EARLY TO MID
MORNING MON. THERE IS A CHC THAT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY
DEVELOP WITH AND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO VA BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT STRONG. HOWEVER...DID OPT TO SHOW SOME SHOWERS
BY 08Z-10Z FOR ALL TAF SITES AND SOME VCTS FOR ECG.

MODELS SHOW FRONT MOVG OFFSHORE MON AFTN. EXPECT CLEARING BEHIND
THE BNDRY WITH MOSTLY W-NW FLOW AND WNDS GUSTING DURING THE DAY TO
25-30 KT.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG IS PSBL NEAR SUNRISE BUT WIDESPREAD
IFR IS NOT INDICATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU TUE. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FM THE NW THIS EVENG...THEN CROSSES THE WTRS AND
OFF THE CST MON INTO MON NGT. SSW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT THRU TNGT. WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE W DURING MON...THEN NW AND N MON NGT INTO TUE MRNG.
NNE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS EXPECTED TUE THRU WED. SE OR E WINDS 10 KT
OR LESS WED NGT THRU THU NGT...BEFORE BECOMING NE AGAIN ON FRI.
WAVES 1 TO 3 FT...AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...JEF/LSA
MARINE...TMG






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280108
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
908 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY...THEN STALLS OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATED SFC COLD FRONT WELL OFF TO OUR WEST FROM
WESTERN LAKE ERIE EXTENDING SW DOWN THROUGH OHIO AND INTO KENTUCKY.
FLOW ALOFT IS WESTERLY. AKQ VAD WIND PROFILE AND 00Z AREA SOUNDINGS
SHOWS STRONG WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM 900
MB ON UP...WHICH DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR BULK OF PRECIP HOLDING
TOGETHER THIS SIDE OF THE MTNS OVERNIGHT.

OVERALL...SEVERE THREAT (AND CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP) IS
WANING FOR THE AKQ CWA. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA FROM ABOUT 11 PM THROUGH 3 AM...BASED
ON AREA OF STORMS SEEN ON RADAR AND IR SATELLITE OVER THE NORTHERN
1/2 OF WV MOVING FROM WNW TO ESE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. WILL
CARRY 50-60% POPS ACRS THE FAR NORTH FOR THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE...LARGE
AREA OF CONVECTION IN NC WILL MISS MOST OF THE CWA TO THE SOUTH
PER CURRENT STORM MOTION/CORFIDI VECTORS. HAVE DROPPED POPS OFF TO
AROUND 40% FOR MOST OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC (WAS GOING TO DROP
IT EVEN FURTHER BUT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
SOME NEW ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN WV/ERN KY WILL MAINTAIN
THESE 40% POPS. WHILE SHEAR REMAINS IMPRESSIVE OVERNIGHT...INSTABILITY
WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WITH DOUBTS DEVELOPING AS TO PRECIP
COVERAGE...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST. WILL CONTINUE WITH
HWO MENTION OF POSSIBLE STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAINLY FOR
DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THAT THERE WILL BE STRONG WINDS NOT FAR OFF
THE SFC. LOWS IN THE U60S NW TO THE LWR-MID 70S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT / LEADING TROF PROGGED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY MORN...
TAKING MOST IF NOT ALL PCPN WITH IT. THIS ENDS ANY SVR THREAT ACROSS
THE AREA. GIVEN LINGERING UPR LVL NRGY & MSTR...KEPT LOW CHC POPS
FAR EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH A PERIOD
OF NO POPS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTN...FOLLOWED BY 20%/SLIGHT
CHC POPS MAINLY ALONG IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS DRNG THE MID-LATE
AFTN. GIVEN INCREASING AMTS OF AFTRN SUN & A DOWNSLOPING WEST
WIND...TMPS XPCTD TO WARM INTO THE U80S-L90S.

MODELS DVLP SCT CONVECTION ALONG THE STALLED FRNTL MON EVENING SO
HAVE CONFINED LOW CHC POPS TO COUNTIES BORDERING ALBEMARLE SND.
OTW...PT CLDY & COOLER. WEAK CAA SEEN AS WINDS BECOME NORTH. LOWS
IN THE 60S.

UPR LVL COOL POOL WILL COMBINE WITH DYTME HTNG AND LINGERING
TROFINESS OVR THE FA FOR ISLTD POPS TUE AFTRN. CAPPED POPS AT 20%
FOR NOW. PT SUNNY WITH BLO NRML TMPS. HIGHS IN THE L80S XCPT U70S
AT THE BEACHES. M CLR TO PT CLDY TUE NITE AND RTHR COMFY FOR LATE
JULY. LOWS M50S-M60S.

MSTLY SUNNY WITH BLO NRML TMPS WED AS HIGH PRS BUILDS OVR THE RGN.
HIGHS L-M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF OVR THE MID ATLC REGION WED NGT...WILL
RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND DEEPEN THU THRU SUN.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OFF THE MID ATLC CST WED NGT INTO
FRI...WILL DRIFT BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI THRU SUN. FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR WED NGT INTO FRI...THEN INCREASE TO SLGT CHC
OR CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT THRU SUN. STILL FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WED NGT
AND THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY/LO LVL MOIST RETURNS
FOR FRI THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID
80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S
THU MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING WITH RADAR SHOWING NO WX
OVER THE AKQ CWA. HOWEVER A LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVG THRU
KY/TN AND SW VA WILL MOVE ESE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MOST OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE CWA...BUT
PSBL AFFECTING ECG EARLY MORNING. ALSO...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT AND INTO CENTRL VA BY EARLY TO MID
MORNING MON. THERE IS A CHC THAT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY
DEVELOP WITH AND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO VA BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT STRONG. HOWEVER...DID OPT TO SHOW SOME SHOWERS
BY 08Z-10Z FOR ALL TAF SITES AND SOME VCTS FOR ECG.

MODELS SHOW FRONT MOVG OFFSHORE MON AFTN. EXPECT CLEARING BEHIND
THE BNDRY WITH MOSTLY W-NW FLOW AND WNDS GUSTING DURING THE DAY TO
25-30 KT.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG IS PSBL NEAR SUNRISE BUT WIDESPREAD
IFR IS NOT INDICATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU TUE. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FM THE NW THIS EVENG...THEN CROSSES THE WTRS AND
OFF THE CST MON INTO MON NGT. SSW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT THRU TNGT. WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE W DURING MON...THEN NW AND N MON NGT INTO TUE MRNG.
NNE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS EXPECTED TUE THRU WED. SE OR E WINDS 10 KT
OR LESS WED NGT THRU THU NGT...BEFORE BECOMING NE AGAIN ON FRI.
WAVES 1 TO 3 FT...AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...JEF/LSA
MARINE...TMG






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280108
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
908 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY...THEN STALLS OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATED SFC COLD FRONT WELL OFF TO OUR WEST FROM
WESTERN LAKE ERIE EXTENDING SW DOWN THROUGH OHIO AND INTO KENTUCKY.
FLOW ALOFT IS WESTERLY. AKQ VAD WIND PROFILE AND 00Z AREA SOUNDINGS
SHOWS STRONG WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM 900
MB ON UP...WHICH DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR BULK OF PRECIP HOLDING
TOGETHER THIS SIDE OF THE MTNS OVERNIGHT.

OVERALL...SEVERE THREAT (AND CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP) IS
WANING FOR THE AKQ CWA. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA FROM ABOUT 11 PM THROUGH 3 AM...BASED
ON AREA OF STORMS SEEN ON RADAR AND IR SATELLITE OVER THE NORTHERN
1/2 OF WV MOVING FROM WNW TO ESE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. WILL
CARRY 50-60% POPS ACRS THE FAR NORTH FOR THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE...LARGE
AREA OF CONVECTION IN NC WILL MISS MOST OF THE CWA TO THE SOUTH
PER CURRENT STORM MOTION/CORFIDI VECTORS. HAVE DROPPED POPS OFF TO
AROUND 40% FOR MOST OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC (WAS GOING TO DROP
IT EVEN FURTHER BUT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
SOME NEW ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN WV/ERN KY WILL MAINTAIN
THESE 40% POPS. WHILE SHEAR REMAINS IMPRESSIVE OVERNIGHT...INSTABILITY
WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WITH DOUBTS DEVELOPING AS TO PRECIP
COVERAGE...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST. WILL CONTINUE WITH
HWO MENTION OF POSSIBLE STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAINLY FOR
DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THAT THERE WILL BE STRONG WINDS NOT FAR OFF
THE SFC. LOWS IN THE U60S NW TO THE LWR-MID 70S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT / LEADING TROF PROGGED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY MORN...
TAKING MOST IF NOT ALL PCPN WITH IT. THIS ENDS ANY SVR THREAT ACROSS
THE AREA. GIVEN LINGERING UPR LVL NRGY & MSTR...KEPT LOW CHC POPS
FAR EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH A PERIOD
OF NO POPS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTN...FOLLOWED BY 20%/SLIGHT
CHC POPS MAINLY ALONG IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS DRNG THE MID-LATE
AFTN. GIVEN INCREASING AMTS OF AFTRN SUN & A DOWNSLOPING WEST
WIND...TMPS XPCTD TO WARM INTO THE U80S-L90S.

MODELS DVLP SCT CONVECTION ALONG THE STALLED FRNTL MON EVENING SO
HAVE CONFINED LOW CHC POPS TO COUNTIES BORDERING ALBEMARLE SND.
OTW...PT CLDY & COOLER. WEAK CAA SEEN AS WINDS BECOME NORTH. LOWS
IN THE 60S.

UPR LVL COOL POOL WILL COMBINE WITH DYTME HTNG AND LINGERING
TROFINESS OVR THE FA FOR ISLTD POPS TUE AFTRN. CAPPED POPS AT 20%
FOR NOW. PT SUNNY WITH BLO NRML TMPS. HIGHS IN THE L80S XCPT U70S
AT THE BEACHES. M CLR TO PT CLDY TUE NITE AND RTHR COMFY FOR LATE
JULY. LOWS M50S-M60S.

MSTLY SUNNY WITH BLO NRML TMPS WED AS HIGH PRS BUILDS OVR THE RGN.
HIGHS L-M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF OVR THE MID ATLC REGION WED NGT...WILL
RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND DEEPEN THU THRU SUN.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OFF THE MID ATLC CST WED NGT INTO
FRI...WILL DRIFT BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI THRU SUN. FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR WED NGT INTO FRI...THEN INCREASE TO SLGT CHC
OR CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT THRU SUN. STILL FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WED NGT
AND THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY/LO LVL MOIST RETURNS
FOR FRI THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID
80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S
THU MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING WITH RADAR SHOWING NO WX
OVER THE AKQ CWA. HOWEVER A LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVG THRU
KY/TN AND SW VA WILL MOVE ESE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MOST OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE CWA...BUT
PSBL AFFECTING ECG EARLY MORNING. ALSO...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT AND INTO CENTRL VA BY EARLY TO MID
MORNING MON. THERE IS A CHC THAT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY
DEVELOP WITH AND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO VA BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT STRONG. HOWEVER...DID OPT TO SHOW SOME SHOWERS
BY 08Z-10Z FOR ALL TAF SITES AND SOME VCTS FOR ECG.

MODELS SHOW FRONT MOVG OFFSHORE MON AFTN. EXPECT CLEARING BEHIND
THE BNDRY WITH MOSTLY W-NW FLOW AND WNDS GUSTING DURING THE DAY TO
25-30 KT.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG IS PSBL NEAR SUNRISE BUT WIDESPREAD
IFR IS NOT INDICATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU TUE. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FM THE NW THIS EVENG...THEN CROSSES THE WTRS AND
OFF THE CST MON INTO MON NGT. SSW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT THRU TNGT. WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE W DURING MON...THEN NW AND N MON NGT INTO TUE MRNG.
NNE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS EXPECTED TUE THRU WED. SE OR E WINDS 10 KT
OR LESS WED NGT THRU THU NGT...BEFORE BECOMING NE AGAIN ON FRI.
WAVES 1 TO 3 FT...AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...JEF/LSA
MARINE...TMG






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280108
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
908 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY...THEN STALLS OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATED SFC COLD FRONT WELL OFF TO OUR WEST FROM
WESTERN LAKE ERIE EXTENDING SW DOWN THROUGH OHIO AND INTO KENTUCKY.
FLOW ALOFT IS WESTERLY. AKQ VAD WIND PROFILE AND 00Z AREA SOUNDINGS
SHOWS STRONG WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM 900
MB ON UP...WHICH DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR BULK OF PRECIP HOLDING
TOGETHER THIS SIDE OF THE MTNS OVERNIGHT.

OVERALL...SEVERE THREAT (AND CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP) IS
WANING FOR THE AKQ CWA. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA FROM ABOUT 11 PM THROUGH 3 AM...BASED
ON AREA OF STORMS SEEN ON RADAR AND IR SATELLITE OVER THE NORTHERN
1/2 OF WV MOVING FROM WNW TO ESE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. WILL
CARRY 50-60% POPS ACRS THE FAR NORTH FOR THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE...LARGE
AREA OF CONVECTION IN NC WILL MISS MOST OF THE CWA TO THE SOUTH
PER CURRENT STORM MOTION/CORFIDI VECTORS. HAVE DROPPED POPS OFF TO
AROUND 40% FOR MOST OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC (WAS GOING TO DROP
IT EVEN FURTHER BUT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
SOME NEW ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN WV/ERN KY WILL MAINTAIN
THESE 40% POPS. WHILE SHEAR REMAINS IMPRESSIVE OVERNIGHT...INSTABILITY
WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WITH DOUBTS DEVELOPING AS TO PRECIP
COVERAGE...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST. WILL CONTINUE WITH
HWO MENTION OF POSSIBLE STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAINLY FOR
DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THAT THERE WILL BE STRONG WINDS NOT FAR OFF
THE SFC. LOWS IN THE U60S NW TO THE LWR-MID 70S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT / LEADING TROF PROGGED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY MORN...
TAKING MOST IF NOT ALL PCPN WITH IT. THIS ENDS ANY SVR THREAT ACROSS
THE AREA. GIVEN LINGERING UPR LVL NRGY & MSTR...KEPT LOW CHC POPS
FAR EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH A PERIOD
OF NO POPS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTN...FOLLOWED BY 20%/SLIGHT
CHC POPS MAINLY ALONG IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS DRNG THE MID-LATE
AFTN. GIVEN INCREASING AMTS OF AFTRN SUN & A DOWNSLOPING WEST
WIND...TMPS XPCTD TO WARM INTO THE U80S-L90S.

MODELS DVLP SCT CONVECTION ALONG THE STALLED FRNTL MON EVENING SO
HAVE CONFINED LOW CHC POPS TO COUNTIES BORDERING ALBEMARLE SND.
OTW...PT CLDY & COOLER. WEAK CAA SEEN AS WINDS BECOME NORTH. LOWS
IN THE 60S.

UPR LVL COOL POOL WILL COMBINE WITH DYTME HTNG AND LINGERING
TROFINESS OVR THE FA FOR ISLTD POPS TUE AFTRN. CAPPED POPS AT 20%
FOR NOW. PT SUNNY WITH BLO NRML TMPS. HIGHS IN THE L80S XCPT U70S
AT THE BEACHES. M CLR TO PT CLDY TUE NITE AND RTHR COMFY FOR LATE
JULY. LOWS M50S-M60S.

MSTLY SUNNY WITH BLO NRML TMPS WED AS HIGH PRS BUILDS OVR THE RGN.
HIGHS L-M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF OVR THE MID ATLC REGION WED NGT...WILL
RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND DEEPEN THU THRU SUN.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OFF THE MID ATLC CST WED NGT INTO
FRI...WILL DRIFT BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI THRU SUN. FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR WED NGT INTO FRI...THEN INCREASE TO SLGT CHC
OR CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT THRU SUN. STILL FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WED NGT
AND THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY/LO LVL MOIST RETURNS
FOR FRI THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID
80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S
THU MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING WITH RADAR SHOWING NO WX
OVER THE AKQ CWA. HOWEVER A LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVG THRU
KY/TN AND SW VA WILL MOVE ESE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MOST OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE CWA...BUT
PSBL AFFECTING ECG EARLY MORNING. ALSO...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT AND INTO CENTRL VA BY EARLY TO MID
MORNING MON. THERE IS A CHC THAT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY
DEVELOP WITH AND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO VA BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT STRONG. HOWEVER...DID OPT TO SHOW SOME SHOWERS
BY 08Z-10Z FOR ALL TAF SITES AND SOME VCTS FOR ECG.

MODELS SHOW FRONT MOVG OFFSHORE MON AFTN. EXPECT CLEARING BEHIND
THE BNDRY WITH MOSTLY W-NW FLOW AND WNDS GUSTING DURING THE DAY TO
25-30 KT.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG IS PSBL NEAR SUNRISE BUT WIDESPREAD
IFR IS NOT INDICATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU TUE. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FM THE NW THIS EVENG...THEN CROSSES THE WTRS AND
OFF THE CST MON INTO MON NGT. SSW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT THRU TNGT. WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE W DURING MON...THEN NW AND N MON NGT INTO TUE MRNG.
NNE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS EXPECTED TUE THRU WED. SE OR E WINDS 10 KT
OR LESS WED NGT THRU THU NGT...BEFORE BECOMING NE AGAIN ON FRI.
WAVES 1 TO 3 FT...AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...JEF/LSA
MARINE...TMG






000
FXUS61 KLWX 280046
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
846 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
AND WESTERN MARYLAND...THE EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE AND
INTO THE NORTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY OF VIRGINIA UNTIL 2 AM.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO MOVE INTO/DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA
THAN SOME GUIDANCE HAD EARLIER SUGGESTED. HAVE HAD ONE CELL IN WV /IN
THE WATCH AREA/ THAT WE HAVE WARNED ON AND THAT HAS BEEN THE
STRONGEST CELL WITHIN OUR CWA THUS FAR.

18Z KIAD RAOB REVEALED A CAP ACROSS THE CWA /AND SOME DRY AIR TOO/...BUT
THAT CAP HAD DISAPPEARED BASED ON THE 00Z KIAD RAOB. DESPITE THE
SETTING OF THE SUN...EXPECTATION IS FOR AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION
DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING AS LARGER SCALE LIFT AND SHEAR
INCREASE. WITH THIS...THE SEVERE RISK WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA AND COULD ALSO EVENTUALLY SPREAD FURTHER DOWNSTREAM OF
THE CURRENT WATCH EARLY TONIGHT.

ACTUAL COLD FRONT LIKELY WON/T MAKE IT INTO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE TROUGH WILL BE OVER NY MONDAY AND WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST. AS ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
MONDAY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
I-66 AND NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

FCST MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE HIGHLANDS
TO THE LOW 60S NEAR THE METROS AND WATERS. NRLY WINDS WIL CONTINUE
TUESDAY AND TEMPS WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S WHICH WILL FEEL
LIKE A FALL DAY FOR THE MID-ATLATNIC.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEAN TROUGHING WILL PERSIST ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. DRY AIR AND NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY AND COOLER
THAN NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD.

MODELS INDICATE THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE BACK WEST OF
THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
RE-ESTABLISHES ITS HOLD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES BACK/REDEVELOPS TO OUR WEST...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
INCREASING THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AS WELL AS THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND
WOULD SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THE LONG AND
PERSISTENT TRAJECTORY OF WIND OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDING ALONG
A STALLED OR SLOW-MOVING FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHALLENGING THUNDERSTORM FORECAST THIS EVENING. HAD BACKED OFF ON
TSRA A COUPLE OF HOURS IN 00Z TAFS. WHILE THERE STILL REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE AND TIMING...CONTINUED THE OVERALL TREND IN
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING...WITH
POTENTIAL IMPACT AT HUBS MAINLY 02Z-06Z TIME FRAME.

N-NW WINDS WILL MOVE IN AS A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS MONDAY.
SHRA AND -TSRA IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AS ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
NW WINDS AROUND 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINALS.

NW FLOW GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS W/ VFR TUE-THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY CHANNELLING WILL LIKELY SUPPORT OCCASIONAL SCA GUSTS UP
THE BAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ANY LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS. WINDS WILL
BECOME NWLY MONDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. A SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL THE WATERS MONDAY.

RELATIVELY BENIGN SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NEARBY OR OVERHEAD TUE NIGHT-FRI IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS. WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE NEXT
WEEKEND...POSSIBLY TO SCA LEVELS BUT THAT IS UNCLEAR THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES HAVE DECREASED TO AROUND 1/2 FT ON THE WESTERN SHORE OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. AT HIGH TIDE...WATER LEVELS WOULD REMAIN BELOW
MINOR TIDAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS WITH THESE ANOMALIES.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ530-531-
     535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...BPP/HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...BPP/HAS/DFH
MARINE...BPP/HAS/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BPP







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280003
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
803 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY...THEN STALLS
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
DROPPED POPS TO HAVE A DRY FORECAST MOST AREAS THROUGH 00Z PER
LATEST CONDITIONS. MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BEYOND
00Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... HRRR & NAM CONTINUE TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON CRNT
CNDTNS SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THEIR SOLNS. EXPECT ONLY SCT ACTIVITY
INTO THE ERLY EVE HRS. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE WE ARE LOOKING AT 2 AREAS
OF CONVECTION. FIRST IS THE S/W NOW MOVG INTO SRN W VA. THIS
PROGGED TO TRACK AN AREA OF SHWRS/TSTRMS ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF
FA (MAINLY SOUTH OF I64) THIS EVE AND INTO ERY MORN HRS. SCND AREA
OF CONVECTION (CRNTLY DVLPNG OVR OHIO) PROGGED TO TRACK EAST
ACROSS SRN PA/MD AFTR MIDNIGHT CLIPPING NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES OF
FA. GIVEN DIFFERENT MODEL SOLNS AND DECENT UPR JET SPRT...WILL
KEEP HIGH CHC TO LOW END LIKELY POPS (40-60%) ACROSS THE RGN. SVR
THREAT (HAIL/WIND/HVY RAIN) CONTS...BUT THREAT IS NOT AS HIGH AS
IT LOOKED EARLIER GIVEN THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND PCPN PAST 8 HRS.
LOWS IN THE U60S NW TO THE LWR-MID 70S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT / LEADING TROF PROGGED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY MORN...
TAKING MOST IF NOT ALL PCPN WITH IT. THIS ENDS ANY SVR THREAT ACROSS
THE AREA. GIVEN LINGERING UPR LVL NRGY & MSTR...KEPT LOW CHC POPS
EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS THEN CONFINED SLGHT CHC POPS
TO IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS DRNG THE AFTRN. GIVEN INCREASING AMTS OF
AFTRN SUN & A DOWNSLOPING WEST WIND...TMPS XPCTD TO WARM INTO THE
U80S-L90S.

MODELS DVLP SCT CONVECTION ALONG THE STALLED FRNTL MON EVENING SO
HAVE CONFINED LOW CHC POPS TO COUNTIES BORDERING ALBEMARLE SND.
OTW...PT CLDY & COOLER. WEAK CAA SEEN AS WINDS BECOME NORTH. LOWS
IN THE 60S.

UPR LVL COOL POOL WILL COMBINE WITH DYTME HTNG AND LINGERING
TROFINESS OVR THE FA FOR ISLTD POPS TUE AFTRN. CAPPED POPS AT 20%
FOR NOW. PT SUNNY WITH BLO NRML TMPS. HIGHS IN THE L80S XCPT U70S
AT THE BEACHES. M CLR TO PT CLDY TUE NITE AND RTHR COMFY FOR LATE
JULY. LOWS M50S-M60S.

MSTLY SUNNY WITH BLO NRML TMPS WED AS HIGH PRS BUILDS OVR THE RGN.
HIGHS L-M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF OVR THE MID ATLC REGION WED NGT...WILL
RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND DEEPEN THU THRU SUN.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OFF THE MID ATLC CST WED NGT INTO
FRI...WILL DRIFT BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI THRU SUN. FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR WED NGT INTO FRI...THEN INCREASE TO SLGT CHC
OR CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT THRU SUN. STILL FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WED NGT
AND THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY/LO LVL MOIST RETURNS
FOR FRI THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID
80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S
THU MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING WITH RADAR SHOWING NO WX
OVER THE AKQ CWA. HOWEVER A LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVG THRU
KY/TN AND SW VA WILL MOVE ESE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MOST OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE CWA...BUT
PSBL AFFECTING ECG EARLY MORNING. ALSO...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT AND INTO CENTRL VA BY EARLY TO MID
MORNING MON. THERE IS A CHC THAT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY
DEVELOP WITH AND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO VA BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT STRONG. HOWEVER...DID OPT TO SHOW SOME SHOWERS
BY 08Z-10Z FOR ALL TAF SITES AND SOME VCTS FOR ECG.

MODELS SHOW FRONT MOVG OFFSHORE MON AFTN. EXPECT CLEARING BEHIND
THE BNDRY WITH MOSTLY W-NW FLOW AND WNDS GUSTING DURING THE DAY TO
25-30 KT.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG IS PSBL NEAR SUNRISE BUT WIDESPREAD
IFR IS NOT INDICATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU TUE. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FM THE NW THIS EVENG...THEN CROSSES THE WTRS AND
OFF THE CST MON INTO MON NGT. SSW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT THRU TNGT. WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE W DURING MON...THEN NW AND N MON NGT INTO TUE MRNG.
NNE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS EXPECTED TUE THRU WED. SE OR E WINDS 10 KT
OR LESS WED NGT THRU THU NGT...BEFORE BECOMING NE AGAIN ON FRI.
WAVES 1 TO 3 FT...AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB/MPR
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...JEF/LSA
MARINE...TMG






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280003
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
803 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY...THEN STALLS
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
DROPPED POPS TO HAVE A DRY FORECAST MOST AREAS THROUGH 00Z PER
LATEST CONDITIONS. MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BEYOND
00Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... HRRR & NAM CONTINUE TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON CRNT
CNDTNS SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THEIR SOLNS. EXPECT ONLY SCT ACTIVITY
INTO THE ERLY EVE HRS. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE WE ARE LOOKING AT 2 AREAS
OF CONVECTION. FIRST IS THE S/W NOW MOVG INTO SRN W VA. THIS
PROGGED TO TRACK AN AREA OF SHWRS/TSTRMS ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF
FA (MAINLY SOUTH OF I64) THIS EVE AND INTO ERY MORN HRS. SCND AREA
OF CONVECTION (CRNTLY DVLPNG OVR OHIO) PROGGED TO TRACK EAST
ACROSS SRN PA/MD AFTR MIDNIGHT CLIPPING NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES OF
FA. GIVEN DIFFERENT MODEL SOLNS AND DECENT UPR JET SPRT...WILL
KEEP HIGH CHC TO LOW END LIKELY POPS (40-60%) ACROSS THE RGN. SVR
THREAT (HAIL/WIND/HVY RAIN) CONTS...BUT THREAT IS NOT AS HIGH AS
IT LOOKED EARLIER GIVEN THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND PCPN PAST 8 HRS.
LOWS IN THE U60S NW TO THE LWR-MID 70S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT / LEADING TROF PROGGED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY MORN...
TAKING MOST IF NOT ALL PCPN WITH IT. THIS ENDS ANY SVR THREAT ACROSS
THE AREA. GIVEN LINGERING UPR LVL NRGY & MSTR...KEPT LOW CHC POPS
EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS THEN CONFINED SLGHT CHC POPS
TO IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS DRNG THE AFTRN. GIVEN INCREASING AMTS OF
AFTRN SUN & A DOWNSLOPING WEST WIND...TMPS XPCTD TO WARM INTO THE
U80S-L90S.

MODELS DVLP SCT CONVECTION ALONG THE STALLED FRNTL MON EVENING SO
HAVE CONFINED LOW CHC POPS TO COUNTIES BORDERING ALBEMARLE SND.
OTW...PT CLDY & COOLER. WEAK CAA SEEN AS WINDS BECOME NORTH. LOWS
IN THE 60S.

UPR LVL COOL POOL WILL COMBINE WITH DYTME HTNG AND LINGERING
TROFINESS OVR THE FA FOR ISLTD POPS TUE AFTRN. CAPPED POPS AT 20%
FOR NOW. PT SUNNY WITH BLO NRML TMPS. HIGHS IN THE L80S XCPT U70S
AT THE BEACHES. M CLR TO PT CLDY TUE NITE AND RTHR COMFY FOR LATE
JULY. LOWS M50S-M60S.

MSTLY SUNNY WITH BLO NRML TMPS WED AS HIGH PRS BUILDS OVR THE RGN.
HIGHS L-M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF OVR THE MID ATLC REGION WED NGT...WILL
RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND DEEPEN THU THRU SUN.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OFF THE MID ATLC CST WED NGT INTO
FRI...WILL DRIFT BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI THRU SUN. FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR WED NGT INTO FRI...THEN INCREASE TO SLGT CHC
OR CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT THRU SUN. STILL FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WED NGT
AND THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY/LO LVL MOIST RETURNS
FOR FRI THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID
80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S
THU MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING WITH RADAR SHOWING NO WX
OVER THE AKQ CWA. HOWEVER A LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVG THRU
KY/TN AND SW VA WILL MOVE ESE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MOST OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE CWA...BUT
PSBL AFFECTING ECG EARLY MORNING. ALSO...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT AND INTO CENTRL VA BY EARLY TO MID
MORNING MON. THERE IS A CHC THAT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY
DEVELOP WITH AND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO VA BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT STRONG. HOWEVER...DID OPT TO SHOW SOME SHOWERS
BY 08Z-10Z FOR ALL TAF SITES AND SOME VCTS FOR ECG.

MODELS SHOW FRONT MOVG OFFSHORE MON AFTN. EXPECT CLEARING BEHIND
THE BNDRY WITH MOSTLY W-NW FLOW AND WNDS GUSTING DURING THE DAY TO
25-30 KT.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG IS PSBL NEAR SUNRISE BUT WIDESPREAD
IFR IS NOT INDICATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU TUE. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FM THE NW THIS EVENG...THEN CROSSES THE WTRS AND
OFF THE CST MON INTO MON NGT. SSW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT THRU TNGT. WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE W DURING MON...THEN NW AND N MON NGT INTO TUE MRNG.
NNE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS EXPECTED TUE THRU WED. SE OR E WINDS 10 KT
OR LESS WED NGT THRU THU NGT...BEFORE BECOMING NE AGAIN ON FRI.
WAVES 1 TO 3 FT...AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB/MPR
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...JEF/LSA
MARINE...TMG







000
FXUS61 KPHI 272302
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
702 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND
LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY, AND
REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR THROUGH THE END OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF ERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NW NJ THRU 200 AM. THE CITY OF PHILADELPHIA AND
DELAWARE COUNTY ARE NOT IN THE WATCH. PUBLIC PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED.

TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL PA WHILE OTHER HAVE MOVED INTO
WRN PA FROM OHIO. MUCH OF THE WRN AREAS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO SEE
SOME CONVECTION SHORTLY. THE TSTMS WILL HAVE A GOOD AIRMASS O
FEED OFF WHILE THEY MOVE EAST. IMPROVING WINDS FIELDS WILL HELP
ORGANIZATION LATER ON. HOW FAR EAST THE TSTMS GO REMAINS A
QUESTION ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE ANOMALOUS STRONG 500MB TROF WILL
PASS ACROSS OUR CWA ON MONDAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS (SELF DESTRUCT
SUNSHINE) WILL BE REACHED EASY AND EARLY. THE OVERALL FCST CAPE AND
INSTAB ALOFT ON THE BIG THREE MODELS ARE NOT UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR
THUNDER. OTHER THAN SOME EARLY THUNDER NORTHEAST CWA, WE KEPT IT AS
SHOWERS WITH HIGHEST POPS NORTHWEST THE REST OF THE DAY.

STAT GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS APPEARS TOO HIGH IN THE SERN CWA UNLESS
THE COLD FRONT IS 2-4HRS SLOWER THAN PROGGED. WE WERE LOWER THAN GFS
MOS THERE AND CLOSE TO A STAT GUIDANCE BLEND ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MOSTLY DRY START TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST, WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING LATER IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE AND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT, BUT
ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END BY MIDNIGHT.

MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AS PW
VALUES DROP TO AN INCH OR LOWER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT MAY
RETURN TO 1-1.25 INCHES FOR THURSDAY AND NEAR 1.5 INCHES FOR FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION, WHILE THE
BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THERE AREA NO SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSES THAT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, BUT
WITH THE TROUGH IN PLACE AND DAYTIME HEATING, THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
DAYTIME INSTABILITY TO CREATE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. EACH DAY THE CHANCES INCREASE SLIGHTLY
AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE. HOWEVER, WE DO NOT HAVE MORE THAN A SLIGHT
CHANCE PROBABILITY THROUGH FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.

AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WE GET A MORE SOLID RETURN OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA AS PW VALUES REBOUND O 1.25-1.5 INCHES. WE ALSO HAVE
A BETTER CHANCE OF VORTICITY IMPULSES AFFECTING OUR AREA WITHIN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, AND WITH THE COASTAL FRONT TRYING TO PUSH BACK
CLOSER TO SHOWER, WE MAY HAVE A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION TO FORM.
THEREFORE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED ARE FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS EVENING, EXPECTING A LINE OF STRONG TSTMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. HIGHEST CONFID AT KABE AND KRDG. LOWEST AT KMIV AND KACY. A
EARLY TIMING HEDGE WAS MAINTAINED (MOST LIKELY TIME IS TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF THE TEMPO GROUP).  MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR (BECAUSE OF
BREVITY NOT INCLUDED) CONDITIONS LIKELY ALONG WITH GUSTY WEST
WINDS.

OVERNIGHT PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING
SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE, BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AS TO
WHERE OR WHEN TO INCLUDE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER, GENERALLY FROM
THE SOUTH. IMPROVEMENT TOWARD MORNING AS PCPN ENDS. THINKING TOO
MUCH WIND FOR SGFCNT FOG TO FORM.

MONDAY MORNING, VFR CONDITIONS WITH A CUMULUS BASED CIG OCCURRING.
GUSTY WEST WINDS, ESPECIALLY FOR JULY, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
AROUND 15 KTS AND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS. SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS SHOULD START DEVELOPING TOWARD THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF
FCST PERIOD. GREATEST CONFIDENCE NORTH, REASON FOR NOW LEFT OUT OF
KPHL TAF.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE BOTH AFTERNOONS, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY FOR THE
OCEAN WATERS. ONE WILL BE ISSUED FOR DELAWARE BAY FOR MONDAY. FIRST
FOR THE LIKELIHOOD THAT SEAS REACH 5 FEET THIS EVENING AND THEN THE
LIKELIHOOD OF NON CONVECTIVE WEST WIND GUSTS REACHING THE CRITERIA
ON DELAWARE BAY AS WELL AS THE OCEAN WATERS DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE BRINGS SIX FOOT SEAS AS IS INTO OUR
COASTAL WATERS, SHAVING A FOOT OR SO OFF WOULD STILL GET US THERE
TONIGHT. TOUGH NIGHT AS IT IS WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. ON MONDAY
MORE OF THE GUSTINESS MAY BE CONCENTRATED AROUND THE INLETS AND IN
DELAWARE BAY WITH POSSIBLY LESS GUSTINESS FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE
GRADIENT AND WINDS SHOULD START RELAXING LATER IN THE DAY ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT, SUBSIDING AND REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...GIGI/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON






000
FXUS61 KPHI 272302
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
702 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND
LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY, AND
REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR THROUGH THE END OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF ERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NW NJ THRU 200 AM. THE CITY OF PHILADELPHIA AND
DELAWARE COUNTY ARE NOT IN THE WATCH. PUBLIC PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED.

TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL PA WHILE OTHER HAVE MOVED INTO
WRN PA FROM OHIO. MUCH OF THE WRN AREAS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO SEE
SOME CONVECTION SHORTLY. THE TSTMS WILL HAVE A GOOD AIRMASS O
FEED OFF WHILE THEY MOVE EAST. IMPROVING WINDS FIELDS WILL HELP
ORGANIZATION LATER ON. HOW FAR EAST THE TSTMS GO REMAINS A
QUESTION ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE ANOMALOUS STRONG 500MB TROF WILL
PASS ACROSS OUR CWA ON MONDAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS (SELF DESTRUCT
SUNSHINE) WILL BE REACHED EASY AND EARLY. THE OVERALL FCST CAPE AND
INSTAB ALOFT ON THE BIG THREE MODELS ARE NOT UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR
THUNDER. OTHER THAN SOME EARLY THUNDER NORTHEAST CWA, WE KEPT IT AS
SHOWERS WITH HIGHEST POPS NORTHWEST THE REST OF THE DAY.

STAT GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS APPEARS TOO HIGH IN THE SERN CWA UNLESS
THE COLD FRONT IS 2-4HRS SLOWER THAN PROGGED. WE WERE LOWER THAN GFS
MOS THERE AND CLOSE TO A STAT GUIDANCE BLEND ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MOSTLY DRY START TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST, WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING LATER IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE AND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT, BUT
ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END BY MIDNIGHT.

MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AS PW
VALUES DROP TO AN INCH OR LOWER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT MAY
RETURN TO 1-1.25 INCHES FOR THURSDAY AND NEAR 1.5 INCHES FOR FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION, WHILE THE
BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THERE AREA NO SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSES THAT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, BUT
WITH THE TROUGH IN PLACE AND DAYTIME HEATING, THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
DAYTIME INSTABILITY TO CREATE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. EACH DAY THE CHANCES INCREASE SLIGHTLY
AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE. HOWEVER, WE DO NOT HAVE MORE THAN A SLIGHT
CHANCE PROBABILITY THROUGH FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.

AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WE GET A MORE SOLID RETURN OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA AS PW VALUES REBOUND O 1.25-1.5 INCHES. WE ALSO HAVE
A BETTER CHANCE OF VORTICITY IMPULSES AFFECTING OUR AREA WITHIN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, AND WITH THE COASTAL FRONT TRYING TO PUSH BACK
CLOSER TO SHOWER, WE MAY HAVE A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION TO FORM.
THEREFORE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED ARE FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS EVENING, EXPECTING A LINE OF STRONG TSTMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. HIGHEST CONFID AT KABE AND KRDG. LOWEST AT KMIV AND KACY. A
EARLY TIMING HEDGE WAS MAINTAINED (MOST LIKELY TIME IS TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF THE TEMPO GROUP).  MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR (BECAUSE OF
BREVITY NOT INCLUDED) CONDITIONS LIKELY ALONG WITH GUSTY WEST
WINDS.

OVERNIGHT PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING
SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE, BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AS TO
WHERE OR WHEN TO INCLUDE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER, GENERALLY FROM
THE SOUTH. IMPROVEMENT TOWARD MORNING AS PCPN ENDS. THINKING TOO
MUCH WIND FOR SGFCNT FOG TO FORM.

MONDAY MORNING, VFR CONDITIONS WITH A CUMULUS BASED CIG OCCURRING.
GUSTY WEST WINDS, ESPECIALLY FOR JULY, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
AROUND 15 KTS AND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS. SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS SHOULD START DEVELOPING TOWARD THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF
FCST PERIOD. GREATEST CONFIDENCE NORTH, REASON FOR NOW LEFT OUT OF
KPHL TAF.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE BOTH AFTERNOONS, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY FOR THE
OCEAN WATERS. ONE WILL BE ISSUED FOR DELAWARE BAY FOR MONDAY. FIRST
FOR THE LIKELIHOOD THAT SEAS REACH 5 FEET THIS EVENING AND THEN THE
LIKELIHOOD OF NON CONVECTIVE WEST WIND GUSTS REACHING THE CRITERIA
ON DELAWARE BAY AS WELL AS THE OCEAN WATERS DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE BRINGS SIX FOOT SEAS AS IS INTO OUR
COASTAL WATERS, SHAVING A FOOT OR SO OFF WOULD STILL GET US THERE
TONIGHT. TOUGH NIGHT AS IT IS WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. ON MONDAY
MORE OF THE GUSTINESS MAY BE CONCENTRATED AROUND THE INLETS AND IN
DELAWARE BAY WITH POSSIBLY LESS GUSTINESS FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE
GRADIENT AND WINDS SHOULD START RELAXING LATER IN THE DAY ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT, SUBSIDING AND REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...GIGI/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 272236
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
636 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME SEVERE...WILL PLAGUE THE
UPPER OHIO REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION FROM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAS GENERALLY
WORKED OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS POINT. OUTFLOW
ENHANCED ASCENT SEEMS TO BE MAINTAINING UPDRAFTS ALONG A LINE OF
HEAVIER ACTIVITY NORTH OF I-80...AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
COMBINED WITH INFLOW OF MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST
SEEMS TO MAINTAINING THE ACTIVITY ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH SEEMS TO BE SAGGING
FURTHER SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING AS THE COLD POOL FROM THE HEART OF
THE FORECAST AREA EXPANDS WITH TIME.

THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL LOW CONTINUE TO BE
FORECAST TO ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING...WHICH
WILL YIELD A SECONDARY INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS...HOWEVER GIVEN A LACK OF SURFACE INVOLVEMENT BY
THAT JUNCTURE...ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED TO JUST THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT DOES SLIDE THROUGH...POPS ARE
SECONDARILY INCREASED TOWARD LIKELIES ACROSS THE AREA FOR A FEW
HOURS. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE EXITING TROUGH ON
MONDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY MONDAY AND WITH LOTS OF CLOUD
COVER...STORM THREAT SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED.

SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

TUESDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND
COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY. WARMER AIR AND THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BASICALLY MOVED AWAY FROM MOST TERMINALS
EXCEPT KFKL. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE FROM THE WEST...WHICH WILL
BRING ANOTHER SHOT AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
NIGHTTIME...WITH STRATUS AND VIS RESTRICTIONS LIKELY OVERNIGHT
TOWARD MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS. SHOWER CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD AIR REMAINS
OVERHEAD. FRIES

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY MON AS A CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 272236
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
636 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME SEVERE...WILL PLAGUE THE
UPPER OHIO REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION FROM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAS GENERALLY
WORKED OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS POINT. OUTFLOW
ENHANCED ASCENT SEEMS TO BE MAINTAINING UPDRAFTS ALONG A LINE OF
HEAVIER ACTIVITY NORTH OF I-80...AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
COMBINED WITH INFLOW OF MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST
SEEMS TO MAINTAINING THE ACTIVITY ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH SEEMS TO BE SAGGING
FURTHER SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING AS THE COLD POOL FROM THE HEART OF
THE FORECAST AREA EXPANDS WITH TIME.

THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL LOW CONTINUE TO BE
FORECAST TO ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING...WHICH
WILL YIELD A SECONDARY INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS...HOWEVER GIVEN A LACK OF SURFACE INVOLVEMENT BY
THAT JUNCTURE...ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED TO JUST THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT DOES SLIDE THROUGH...POPS ARE
SECONDARILY INCREASED TOWARD LIKELIES ACROSS THE AREA FOR A FEW
HOURS. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE EXITING TROUGH ON
MONDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY MONDAY AND WITH LOTS OF CLOUD
COVER...STORM THREAT SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED.

SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

TUESDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND
COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY. WARMER AIR AND THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BASICALLY MOVED AWAY FROM MOST TERMINALS
EXCEPT KFKL. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE FROM THE WEST...WHICH WILL
BRING ANOTHER SHOT AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
NIGHTTIME...WITH STRATUS AND VIS RESTRICTIONS LIKELY OVERNIGHT
TOWARD MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS. SHOWER CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD AIR REMAINS
OVERHEAD. FRIES

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY MON AS A CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPHI 272225
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
625 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND
LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY, AND
REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR THROUGH THE END OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL PA WHILE OTHER HAVE MOVED INTO
WRN PA FROM OHIO. MUCH OF THE WRN AREAS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO SEE
SOME CONVECTION SHORTLY. PARTS OF THE AREA ARE BEING CONSIDERED
FOR A SVR TSTM WATCH ATTM. THE TSTMS WILL HAVE A GOOD AIRMASS O
FEED OFF WHILE THEY MOVE EAST. IMPROVING WINDS FIELDS WILL HELP
ORGANIZATION LATER ON. HOW FAR EAST THE TSTMS GO REMAINS A
QUESTION ATTM. POPS/WX UPDATED FOR THE 630 ESTF. PRODUCTS WILL BE
UPDATED AGAIN IF A WATCH IS ISSUED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE ANOMALOUS STRONG 500MB TROF WILL
PASS ACROSS OUR CWA ON MONDAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS (SELF DESTRUCT
SUNSHINE) WILL BE REACHED EASY AND EARLY. THE OVERALL FCST CAPE AND
INSTAB ALOFT ON THE BIG THREE MODELS ARE NOT UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR
THUNDER. OTHER THAN SOME EARLY THUNDER NORTHEAST CWA, WE KEPT IT AS
SHOWERS WITH HIGHEST POPS NORTHWEST THE REST OF THE DAY.

STAT GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS APPEARS TOO HIGH IN THE SERN CWA UNLESS
THE COLD FRONT IS 2-4HRS SLOWER THAN PROGGED. WE WERE LOWER THAN GFS
MOS THERE AND CLOSE TO A STAT GUIDANCE BLEND ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MOSTLY DRY START TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST, WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING LATER IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE AND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT, BUT
ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END BY MIDNIGHT.

MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AS PW
VALUES DROP TO AN INCH OR LOWER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT MAY
RETURN TO 1-1.25 INCHES FOR THURSDAY AND NEAR 1.5 INCHES FOR FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION, WHILE THE
BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THERE AREA NO SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSES THAT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, BUT
WITH THE TROUGH IN PLACE AND DAYTIME HEATING, THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
DAYTIME INSTABILITY TO CREATE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. EACH DAY THE CHANCES INCREASE SLIGHTLY
AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE. HOWEVER, WE DO NOT HAVE MORE THAN A SLIGHT
CHANCE PROBABILITY THROUGH FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.

AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WE GET A MORE SOLID RETURN OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA AS PW VALUES REBOUND O 1.25-1.5 INCHES. WE ALSO HAVE
A BETTER CHANCE OF VORTICITY IMPULSES AFFECTING OUR AREA WITHIN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, AND WITH THE COASTAL FRONT TRYING TO PUSH BACK
CLOSER TO SHOWER, WE MAY HAVE A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION TO FORM.
THEREFORE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED ARE FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

18Z TAFS HAVE A HIGH CONVECTIVE IMPACT DURING THIS EVENING INTO
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. VFR WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPANDING AND SOME
CIRRUS ABOVE THEM SOUTH. NO THUNDER MENTIONED ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER MIGHT FORM BEFORE THE ORGANIZED SYSTEM. LOWEST CONFIDENCE
ABOUT NO THUNDER IN PA. PLEASE WATCH FOR POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS. WINDS
ARE SLOWLY BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND MAY EVEN GO SOUTH AT SPEEDS
OF AROUND 10 KTS.

THIS EVENING, EXPECTING A LINE OF STRONG TSTMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. HIGHEST CONFID AT KABE AND KRDG. LOWEST AT KMIV AND KACY. A
EARLY TIMING HEDGE WAS MAINTAINED (MOST LIKELY TIME IS TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF THE TEMPO GROUP).  MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR (BECAUSE OF
BREVITY NOT INCLUDED) CONDITIONS LIKELY ALONG WITH GUSTY WEST
WINDS.

OVERNIGHT PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING
SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE, BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AS TO
WHERE OR WHEN TO INCLUDE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER, GENERALLY FROM
THE SOUTH. IMPROVEMENT TOWARD MORNING AS PCPN ENDS. THINKING TOO
MUCH WIND FOR SGFCNT FOG TO FORM.

MONDAY MORNING, VFR CONDITIONS WITH A CUMULUS BASED CIG OCCURRING.
GUSTY WEST WINDS, ESPECIALLY FOR JULY, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
AROUND 15 KTS AND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS. SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS SHOULD START DEVELOPING TOWARD THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF
FCST PERIOD. GREATEST CONFIDENCE NORTH, REASON FOR NOW LEFT OUT OF
KPHL TAF.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE BOTH AFTERNOONS, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY FOR THE
OCEAN WATERS. ONE WILL BE ISSUED FOR DELAWARE BAY FOR MONDAY. FIRST
FOR THE LIKELIHOOD THAT SEAS REACH 5 FEET THIS EVENING AND THEN THE
LIKELIHOOD OF NON CONVECTIVE WEST WIND GUSTS REACHING THE CRITERIA
ON DELAWARE BAY AS WELL AS THE OCEAN WATERS DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE BRINGS SIX FOOT SEAS AS IS INTO OUR
COASTAL WATERS, SHAVING A FOOT OR SO OFF WOULD STILL GET US THERE
TONIGHT. TOUGH NIGHT AS IT IS WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. ON MONDAY
MORE OF THE GUSTINESS MAY BE CONCENTRATED AROUND THE INLETS AND IN
DELAWARE BAY WITH POSSIBLY LESS GUSTINESS FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE
GRADIENT AND WINDS SHOULD START RELAXING LATER IN THE DAY ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT, SUBSIDING AND REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...PO

SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...GIGI/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 272225
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
625 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND
LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY, AND
REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR THROUGH THE END OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL PA WHILE OTHER HAVE MOVED INTO
WRN PA FROM OHIO. MUCH OF THE WRN AREAS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO SEE
SOME CONVECTION SHORTLY. PARTS OF THE AREA ARE BEING CONSIDERED
FOR A SVR TSTM WATCH ATTM. THE TSTMS WILL HAVE A GOOD AIRMASS O
FEED OFF WHILE THEY MOVE EAST. IMPROVING WINDS FIELDS WILL HELP
ORGANIZATION LATER ON. HOW FAR EAST THE TSTMS GO REMAINS A
QUESTION ATTM. POPS/WX UPDATED FOR THE 630 ESTF. PRODUCTS WILL BE
UPDATED AGAIN IF A WATCH IS ISSUED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE ANOMALOUS STRONG 500MB TROF WILL
PASS ACROSS OUR CWA ON MONDAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS (SELF DESTRUCT
SUNSHINE) WILL BE REACHED EASY AND EARLY. THE OVERALL FCST CAPE AND
INSTAB ALOFT ON THE BIG THREE MODELS ARE NOT UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR
THUNDER. OTHER THAN SOME EARLY THUNDER NORTHEAST CWA, WE KEPT IT AS
SHOWERS WITH HIGHEST POPS NORTHWEST THE REST OF THE DAY.

STAT GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS APPEARS TOO HIGH IN THE SERN CWA UNLESS
THE COLD FRONT IS 2-4HRS SLOWER THAN PROGGED. WE WERE LOWER THAN GFS
MOS THERE AND CLOSE TO A STAT GUIDANCE BLEND ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MOSTLY DRY START TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST, WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING LATER IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE AND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT, BUT
ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END BY MIDNIGHT.

MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AS PW
VALUES DROP TO AN INCH OR LOWER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT MAY
RETURN TO 1-1.25 INCHES FOR THURSDAY AND NEAR 1.5 INCHES FOR FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION, WHILE THE
BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THERE AREA NO SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSES THAT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, BUT
WITH THE TROUGH IN PLACE AND DAYTIME HEATING, THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
DAYTIME INSTABILITY TO CREATE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. EACH DAY THE CHANCES INCREASE SLIGHTLY
AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE. HOWEVER, WE DO NOT HAVE MORE THAN A SLIGHT
CHANCE PROBABILITY THROUGH FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.

AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WE GET A MORE SOLID RETURN OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA AS PW VALUES REBOUND O 1.25-1.5 INCHES. WE ALSO HAVE
A BETTER CHANCE OF VORTICITY IMPULSES AFFECTING OUR AREA WITHIN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, AND WITH THE COASTAL FRONT TRYING TO PUSH BACK
CLOSER TO SHOWER, WE MAY HAVE A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION TO FORM.
THEREFORE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED ARE FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

18Z TAFS HAVE A HIGH CONVECTIVE IMPACT DURING THIS EVENING INTO
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. VFR WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPANDING AND SOME
CIRRUS ABOVE THEM SOUTH. NO THUNDER MENTIONED ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER MIGHT FORM BEFORE THE ORGANIZED SYSTEM. LOWEST CONFIDENCE
ABOUT NO THUNDER IN PA. PLEASE WATCH FOR POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS. WINDS
ARE SLOWLY BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND MAY EVEN GO SOUTH AT SPEEDS
OF AROUND 10 KTS.

THIS EVENING, EXPECTING A LINE OF STRONG TSTMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. HIGHEST CONFID AT KABE AND KRDG. LOWEST AT KMIV AND KACY. A
EARLY TIMING HEDGE WAS MAINTAINED (MOST LIKELY TIME IS TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF THE TEMPO GROUP).  MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR (BECAUSE OF
BREVITY NOT INCLUDED) CONDITIONS LIKELY ALONG WITH GUSTY WEST
WINDS.

OVERNIGHT PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING
SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE, BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AS TO
WHERE OR WHEN TO INCLUDE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER, GENERALLY FROM
THE SOUTH. IMPROVEMENT TOWARD MORNING AS PCPN ENDS. THINKING TOO
MUCH WIND FOR SGFCNT FOG TO FORM.

MONDAY MORNING, VFR CONDITIONS WITH A CUMULUS BASED CIG OCCURRING.
GUSTY WEST WINDS, ESPECIALLY FOR JULY, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
AROUND 15 KTS AND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS. SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS SHOULD START DEVELOPING TOWARD THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF
FCST PERIOD. GREATEST CONFIDENCE NORTH, REASON FOR NOW LEFT OUT OF
KPHL TAF.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE BOTH AFTERNOONS, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY FOR THE
OCEAN WATERS. ONE WILL BE ISSUED FOR DELAWARE BAY FOR MONDAY. FIRST
FOR THE LIKELIHOOD THAT SEAS REACH 5 FEET THIS EVENING AND THEN THE
LIKELIHOOD OF NON CONVECTIVE WEST WIND GUSTS REACHING THE CRITERIA
ON DELAWARE BAY AS WELL AS THE OCEAN WATERS DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE BRINGS SIX FOOT SEAS AS IS INTO OUR
COASTAL WATERS, SHAVING A FOOT OR SO OFF WOULD STILL GET US THERE
TONIGHT. TOUGH NIGHT AS IT IS WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. ON MONDAY
MORE OF THE GUSTINESS MAY BE CONCENTRATED AROUND THE INLETS AND IN
DELAWARE BAY WITH POSSIBLY LESS GUSTINESS FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE
GRADIENT AND WINDS SHOULD START RELAXING LATER IN THE DAY ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT, SUBSIDING AND REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...PO

SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...GIGI/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 272143
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
543 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY...THEN STALLS
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
DROPPED POPS TO HAVE A DRY FORECAST MOST AREAS THROUGH 00Z PER
LATEST CONDITIONS. MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BEYOND
00Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... HRRR & NAM CONTINUE TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON CRNT
CNDTNS SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THEIR SOLNS. EXPECT ONLY SCT ACTIVITY
INTO THE ERLY EVE HRS. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE WE ARE LOOKING AT 2 AREAS
OF CONVECTION. FIRST IS THE S/W NOW MOVG INTO SRN W VA. THIS
PROGGED TO TRACK AN AREA OF SHWRS/TSTRMS ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF
FA (MAINLY SOUTH OF I64) THIS EVE AND INTO ERY MORN HRS. SCND AREA
OF CONVECTION (CRNTLY DVLPNG OVR OHIO) PROGGED TO TRACK EAST
ACROSS SRN PA/MD AFTR MIDNIGHT CLIPPING NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES OF
FA. GIVEN DIFFERENT MODEL SOLNS AND DECENT UPR JET SPRT...WILL
KEEP HIGH CHC TO LOW END LIKELY POPS (40-60%) ACROSS THE RGN. SVR
THREAT (HAIL/WIND/HVY RAIN) CONTS...BUT THREAT IS NOT AS HIGH AS
IT LOOKED EARLIER GIVEN THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND PCPN PAST 8 HRS.
LOWS IN THE U60S NW TO THE LWR-MID 70S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT / LEADING TROF PROGGED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY MORN...
TAKING MOST IF NOT ALL PCPN WITH IT. THIS ENDS ANY SVR THREAT ACROSS
THE AREA. GIVEN LINGERING UPR LVL NRGY & MSTR...KEPT LOW CHC POPS
EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS THEN CONFINED SLGHT CHC POPS
TO IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS DRNG THE AFTRN. GIVEN INCREASING AMTS OF
AFTRN SUN & A DOWNSLOPING WEST WIND...TMPS XPCTD TO WARM INTO THE
U80S-L90S.

MODELS DVLP SCT CONVECTION ALONG THE STALLED FRNTL MON EVENING SO
HAVE CONFINED LOW CHC POPS TO COUNTIES BORDERING ALBEMARLE SND.
OTW...PT CLDY & COOLER. WEAK CAA SEEN AS WINDS BECOME NORTH. LOWS
IN THE 60S.

UPR LVL COOL POOL WILL COMBINE WITH DYTME HTNG AND LINGERING
TROFINESS OVR THE FA FOR ISLTD POPS TUE AFTRN. CAPPED POPS AT 20%
FOR NOW. PT SUNNY WITH BLO NRML TMPS. HIGHS IN THE L80S XCPT U70S
AT THE BEACHES. M CLR TO PT CLDY TUE NITE AND RTHR COMFY FOR LATE
JULY. LOWS M50S-M60S.

MSTLY SUNNY WITH BLO NRML TMPS WED AS HIGH PRS BUILDS OVR THE RGN.
HIGHS L-M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF OVR THE MID ATLC REGION WED NGT...WILL
RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND DEEPEN THU THRU SUN.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OFF THE MID ATLC CST WED NGT INTO
FRI...WILL DRIFT BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI THRU SUN. FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR WED NGT INTO FRI...THEN INCREASE TO SLGT CHC
OR CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT THRU SUN. STILL FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WED NGT
AND THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY/LO LVL MOIST RETURNS
FOR FRI THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID
80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S
THU MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUD COVER WAS PUTTING A DAMPER ON CONVECTION TODAY. BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST MAY HELP TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCT TSTMS LATER TODAY AND EARLY
THIS EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. IN THE MEANTIME...AN
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING THROUGH HAMPTON ROADS/ECG AREA WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER THE START OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.

INCLUDED A FEW OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AT ALL THE TAF SITES EXCEPT ECG.
THESE COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH TSTMS. WEST WINDS DEVELOP IN THE
MORNING BEHIND A PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND. THESE WINDS DRY OUT THE
ATMOSPHERE AND SHOULD END THE PCPN. THE FRONT ITSELF MOVES THROUGH
EARLY IN THE AFTN. AT THIS POINT AND APPEARS TO BE A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

NO IFR WAS PLACED IN THE TAFS. MVFR FOG IS PSBL AT SBY AND ECG PRIOR
TO THE W/SW WINDS.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG IS PSBL NEAR SUNRISE BUT WIDESPREAD
IFR IS NOT INDICATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU TUE. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FM THE NW THIS EVENG...THEN CROSSES THE WTRS AND
OFF THE CST MON INTO MON NGT. SSW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT THRU TNGT. WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE W DURING MON...THEN NW AND N MON NGT INTO TUE MRNG.
NNE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS EXPECTED TUE THRU WED. SE OR E WINDS 10 KT
OR LESS WED NGT THRU THU NGT...BEFORE BECOMING NE AGAIN ON FRI.
WAVES 1 TO 3 FT...AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB/MPR
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...TMG






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 272008
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
408 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME SEVERE...WILL PLAGUE THE
UPPER OHIO REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MULTIPLE MESOSCALE FORCED BOUNDARIES SEEM TO BE LAYING OUT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...AND SEEM TO BE THE MAIN FOCI FOR
STORM INITIATION AS OF THIS HOUR. THE FIRST OF THESE SEEMS TO
EXTEND GENERALLY FROM NEW PHILADELPHIA EASTWARD...AND HAS A FAIRLY
DISCERNIBLE MESOLOW TRACKING DOWN IT ASSISTING WITH ASCENT.
ANOTHER NEWER LINEAR FEATURE CAN ALSO BE NOTED ON RADAR ALONG THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND GIVEN RUC/NAM DATA...THIS
IS LIKELY THE RADAR MANIFESTATION OF AN AREA OF 850 MB CONVERGENCE
THAT SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING. AS SUCH...WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN
THESE AREAS...WITH STILL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE ELSEWHERE
GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY AND A FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE. TRAINING
DOWN THESE AREAS OF ENHANCED FOCUSING FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING...SO THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS NON-
ZERO...PARTICULARLY ACROSS AREAS FROM PITTSBURGH SOUTH AND
EAST...WHERE LAST NIGHT`S RAINFALL WAS LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT.

OTHERWISE...A FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE THROUGH THE EVENING WILL
CONTINUE TO MAKE UP FOR A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY...AND
GIVEN CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN TIER OF THE
FORECAST AREA...THE CHANCE OF ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL
GOOD. AS IS THE CASE WITH THESE...LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING
WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. SPC HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 9 PM FOR THIS.

THE MID-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TOWARD THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE MID-LEVEL UNSTABLE EVEN AS THE
LOWER LEVELS BEGIN TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTION. WITH STRONG LAPSE RATES ALOFT
CONTINUING...HOWEVER...SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE EXITING TROUGH ON
MONDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY MONDAY AND WITH LOTS OF CLOUD
COVER...STORM THREAT SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED.

SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

TUESDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND
COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY. WARMER AIR AND THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STG TO SVR TSTMS ARE EXPECTED INTO ERLY EVE WITH ADVNG LOW PRES.
TEMPO TSTM MENTIONS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR ALL PORTS.
THEREAFTER...EXPECT MVFR TO DEVELOP OVRNGT IN ST/SC AND SHWRS.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY MON AS A CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 272008
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
408 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME SEVERE...WILL PLAGUE THE
UPPER OHIO REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MULTIPLE MESOSCALE FORCED BOUNDARIES SEEM TO BE LAYING OUT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...AND SEEM TO BE THE MAIN FOCI FOR
STORM INITIATION AS OF THIS HOUR. THE FIRST OF THESE SEEMS TO
EXTEND GENERALLY FROM NEW PHILADELPHIA EASTWARD...AND HAS A FAIRLY
DISCERNIBLE MESOLOW TRACKING DOWN IT ASSISTING WITH ASCENT.
ANOTHER NEWER LINEAR FEATURE CAN ALSO BE NOTED ON RADAR ALONG THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND GIVEN RUC/NAM DATA...THIS
IS LIKELY THE RADAR MANIFESTATION OF AN AREA OF 850 MB CONVERGENCE
THAT SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING. AS SUCH...WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN
THESE AREAS...WITH STILL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE ELSEWHERE
GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY AND A FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE. TRAINING
DOWN THESE AREAS OF ENHANCED FOCUSING FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING...SO THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS NON-
ZERO...PARTICULARLY ACROSS AREAS FROM PITTSBURGH SOUTH AND
EAST...WHERE LAST NIGHT`S RAINFALL WAS LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT.

OTHERWISE...A FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE THROUGH THE EVENING WILL
CONTINUE TO MAKE UP FOR A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY...AND
GIVEN CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN TIER OF THE
FORECAST AREA...THE CHANCE OF ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL
GOOD. AS IS THE CASE WITH THESE...LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING
WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. SPC HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 9 PM FOR THIS.

THE MID-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TOWARD THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE MID-LEVEL UNSTABLE EVEN AS THE
LOWER LEVELS BEGIN TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTION. WITH STRONG LAPSE RATES ALOFT
CONTINUING...HOWEVER...SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE EXITING TROUGH ON
MONDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY MONDAY AND WITH LOTS OF CLOUD
COVER...STORM THREAT SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED.

SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

TUESDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND
COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY. WARMER AIR AND THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STG TO SVR TSTMS ARE EXPECTED INTO ERLY EVE WITH ADVNG LOW PRES.
TEMPO TSTM MENTIONS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR ALL PORTS.
THEREAFTER...EXPECT MVFR TO DEVELOP OVRNGT IN ST/SC AND SHWRS.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY MON AS A CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271944
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
344 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY...THEN STALLS
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HRRR & NAM CONTINUE TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON CRNT CNDTNS SO HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THEIR SOLNS. EXPECT ONLY SCT ACTIVITY INTO THE ERLY
EVE HRS. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE WE ARE LOOKING AT 2 AREAS OF CONVECTION.
FIRST IS THE S/W NOW MOVG INTO SRN W VA. THIS PROGGED TO TRACK AN
AREA OF SHWRS/TSTRMS ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF FA (MAINLY SOUTH OF
I64) THIS EVE AND INTO ERY MORN HRS. SCND AREA OF CONVECTION
(CRNTLY DVLPNG OVR OHIO) PROGGED TO TRACK EAST ACROSS SRN PA/MD
AFTR MIDNIGHT CLIPPING NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES OF FA. GIVEN
DIFFERENT MODEL SOLNS AND DECENT UPR JET SPRT...WILL KEEP HIGH
CHC TO LOW END LIKELY POPS (40-60%) ACROSS THE RGN. SVR THREAT
(HAIL/WIND/HVY RAIN) CONTS...BUT THREAT IS NOT AS HIGH AS IT
LOOKED EARLIER GIVEN THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND PCPN PAST 8 HRS. LOWS
IN THE U60S-M70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT / LEADING TROF PROGGED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY MORN...
TAKING MOST IF NOT ALL PCPN WITH IT. THIS ENDS ANY SVR THREAT ACROSS
THE AREA. GIVEN LINGERING UPR LVL NRGY & MSTR...KEPT LOW CHC POPS
EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS THEN CONFINED SLGHT CHC POPS
TO IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS DRNG THE AFTRN. GIVEN INCREASING AMTS OF
AFTRN SUN & A DOWNSLOPING WEST WIND...TMPS XPCTD TO WARM INTO THE
U80S-L90S.

MODELS DVLP SCT CONVECTION ALONG THE STALLED FRNTL MON EVENING SO
HAVE CONFINED LOW CHC POPS TO COUNTIES BORDERING ALBEMARLE SND.
OTW...PT CLDY & COOLER. WEAK CAA SEEN AS WINDS BECOME NORTH. LOWS
IN THE 60S.

UPR LVL COOL POOL WILL COMBINE WITH DYTME HTNG AND LINGERING
TROFINESS OVR THE FA FOR ISLTD POPS TUE AFTRN. CAPPED POPS AT 20%
FOR NOW. PT SUNNY WITH BLO NRML TMPS. HIGHS IN THE L80S XCPT U70S
AT THE BEACHES. M CLR TO PT CLDY TUE NITE AND RTHR COMFY FOR LATE
JULY. LOWS M50S-M60S.

MSTLY SUNNY WITH BLO NRML TMPS WED AS HIGH PRS BUILDS OVR THE RGN.
HIGHS L-M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF OVR THE MID ATLC REGION WED NGT...WILL
RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND DEEPEN THU THRU SUN.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OFF THE MID ATLC CST WED NGT INTO
FRI...WILL DRIFT BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI THRU SUN. FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR WED NGT INTO FRI...THEN INCREASE TO SLGT CHC
OR CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT THRU SUN. STILL FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WED NGT
AND THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY/LO LVL MOIST RETURNS
FOR FRI THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID
80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S
THU MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUD COVER WAS PUTTING A DAMPER ON CONVECTION TODAY. BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST MAY HELP TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCT TSTMS LATER TODAY AND EARLY
THIS EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. IN THE MEANTIME...AN
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING THROUGH HAMPTON ROADS/ECG AREA WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER THE START OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.

INCLUDED A FEW OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AT ALL THE TAF SITES EXCEPT ECG.
THESE COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH TSTMS. WEST WINDS DEVELOP IN THE
MORNING BEHIND A PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND. THESE WINDS DRY OUT THE
ATMOSPHERE AND SHOULD END THE PCPN. THE FRONT ITSELF MOVES THROUGH
EARLY IN THE AFTN. AT THIS POINT AND APPEARS TO BE A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

NO IFR WAS PLACED IN THE TAFS. MVFR FOG IS PSBL AT SBY AND ECG PRIOR
TO THE W/SW WINDS.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG IS PSBL NEAR SUNRISE BUT WIDESPREAD
IFR IS NOT INDICATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU TUE. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FM THE NW THIS EVENG...THEN CROSSES THE WTRS AND
OFF THE CST MON INTO MON NGT. SSW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT THRU TNGT. WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE W DURING MON...THEN NW AND N MON NGT INTO TUE MRNG.
NNE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS EXPECTED TUE THRU WED. SE OR E WINDS 10 KT
OR LESS WED NGT THRU THU NGT...BEFORE BECOMING NE AGAIN ON FRI.
WAVES 1 TO 3 FT...AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...TMG






000
FXUS61 KPHI 271934
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
334 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND
LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY, AND
REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR THROUGH THE END OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION CONTINUES TO LOOK SLIGHTLY BETTER AT 500MB
BUT ITS CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK OF VORT MAXES WHILE ON ONE LEVEL
CORRECT CONTINUE TO MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO FOLLOW THE MODEL. NEAR AND
SHORT TERM SOLUTION ARE AN ECMWF/HI RES ARW BLEND AS THE FORMER HAS
VERIFIED THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SHORT WAVES BETTER AND THE LATTER WAS
USED FOR CONVECTIVE ADJUSTMENTS AS ITS VERIFYING WELL AT 18Z.

COSPA VERIFYING TOO SLOW WITH CONVECTION LEAVING OHIO AND TOO NORTH
WITH WV CONVECTION. IT...RAP AND HRRR ALL DEVELOP CONVECTION OVER
THE ALLEGHENIES AND ADVECT IT EAST AHEAD OF ONGOING CONVECTION OVER
OH/PA BORDER ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG SHORT WAVE. SPC ANALYSIS IS
SHOWING 2000J ML CAPE IN THAT AREA AND THE STABILITY OF WAVE CLOUDS
ON VIS SATL OVER THAT AREA IS NOW GONE. SO WE WILL CONT TO START
GRIDS WITH LOW POPS THAT WILL INCREASE WITH TIME THIS EVENING.

POPS ARE TIED CLOSE TO THE ARW AND ALSO THE DEEPER LAYER MASS OMEGA
FIELDS BY THE MODELS. IN SPITE OF QPF TIMING DIFFERENCES, THE OMEGA
FIELDS TIMING ARE CLUSTERED CLOSER. THIS REMAINS A DYNAMIC SCENARIO
WITH A NEGATIVE TILT TROF AND EVEN A JET COUPLET OVER OUR CWA FOR A
WHILE OVERNIGHT. EVENTUALLY THE MLCAPE WILL DECREASE, EVEN THOUGH
THERE WILL BE NO END TO THE PREDICTED BULK SHEAR AVERAGING AROUND
40KTS. SO THE STRONGER (SEVERE?) POTENTIAL WITH THE THUNDER MAY
LINGER LONGER INTO THE NIGHT. LAST COUPLE OF COSPAS DONT CORROBORATE
THIS. FOR NOW, WE CARRIED SOME ENHANCED WORDING PAST MIDNIGHT. GIVEN
THE NEGATIVE TILT FLAVOR OF THE TROF, WHILE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY, IT
SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE. WITH FFG VALUES RUNNING AT TYPICALLY HIGH
SUMMER LEVELS, SEVERE THREAT REMAINS OUR MORE FOCUSED CONCERN.

WE WERE SLOW WITH DROPPING TEMPS THIS EVENING AND TRIED TO TIME THE
DROP TO THE ONSET OF HEAVIER RAIN. MIN TEMPS NOT THAT FAR FROM STAT
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE ANOMALOUS STRONG 500MB TROF WILL
PASS ACROSS OUR CWA ON MONDAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS (SELF DESTRUCT
SUNSHINE) WILL BE REACHED EASY AND EARLY. THE OVERALL FCST CAPE AND
INSTAB ALOFT ON THE BIG THREE MODELS ARE NOT UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR
THUNDER. OTHER THAN SOME EARLY THUNDER NORTHEAST CWA, WE KEPT IT AS
SHOWERS WITH HIGHEST POPS NORTHWEST THE REST OF THE DAY.

STAT GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS APPEARS TOO HIGH IN THE SERN CWA UNLESS
THE COLD FRONT IS 2-4HRS SLOWER THAN PROGGED. WE WERE LOWER THAN GFS
MOS THERE AND CLOSE TO A STAT GUIDANCE BLEND ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MOSTLY DRY START TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST, WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING LATER IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE AND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT, BUT
ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END BY MIDNIGHT.

MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AS PW
VALUES DROP TO AN INCH OR LOWER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT MAY
RETURN TO 1-1.25 INCHES FOR THURSDAY AND NEAR 1.5 INCHES FOR FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION, WHILE THE
BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THERE AREA NO SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSES THAT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, BUT
WITH THE TROUGH IN PLACE AND DAYTIME HEATING, THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
DAYTIME INSTABILITY TO CREATE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. EACH DAY THE CHANCES INCREASE SLIGHTLY
AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE. HOWEVER, WE DO NOT HAVE MORE THAN A SLIGHT
CHANCE PROBABILITY THROUGH FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.

AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WE GET A MORE SOLID RETURN OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA AS PW VALUES REBOUND O 1.25-1.5 INCHES. WE ALSO HAVE
A BETTER CHANCE OF VORTICITY IMPULSES AFFECTING OUR AREA WITHIN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, AND WITH THE COASTAL FRONT TRYING TO PUSH BACK
CLOSER TO SHOWER, WE MAY HAVE A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION TO FORM.
THEREFORE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED ARE FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

18Z TAFS HAVE A HIGH CONVECTIVE IMPACT DURING THIS EVENING INTO
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. VFR WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPANDING AND SOME
CIRRUS ABOVE THEM SOUTH. NO THUNDER MENTIONED ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER MIGHT FORM BEFORE THE ORGANIZED SYSTEM. LOWEST CONFIDENCE
ABOUT NO THUNDER IN PA. PLEASE WATCH FOR POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS. WINDS
ARE SLOWLY BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND MAY EVEN GO SOUTH AT SPEEDS
OF AROUND 10 KTS.

THIS EVENING, EXPECTING A LINE OF STRONG TSTMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. HIGHEST CONFID AT KABE AND KRDG. LOWEST AT KMIV AND KACY. A
EARLY TIMING HEDGE WAS MAINTAINED (MOST LIKELY TIME IS TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF THE TEMPO GROUP).  MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR (BECAUSE OF
BREVITY NOT INCLUDED) CONDITIONS LIKELY ALONG WITH GUSTY WEST
WINDS.

OVERNIGHT PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING
SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE, BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AS TO
WHERE OR WHEN TO INCLUDE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER, GENERALLY FROM
THE SOUTH. IMPROVEMENT TOWARD MORNING AS PCPN ENDS. THINKING TOO
MUCH WIND FOR SGFCNT FOG TO FORM.

MONDAY MORNING, VFR CONDITIONS WITH A CUMULUS BASED CIG OCCURRING.
GUSTY WEST WINDS, ESPECIALLY FOR JULY, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
AROUND 15 KTS AND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS. SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS SHOULD START DEVELOPING TOWARD THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF
FCST PERIOD. GREATEST CONFIDENCE NORTH, REASON FOR NOW LEFT OUT OF
KPHL TAF.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE BOTH AFTERNOONS, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY FOR THE
OCEAN WATERS. ONE WILL BE ISSUED FOR DELAWARE BAY FOR MONDAY. FIRST
FOR THE LIKELIHOOD THAT SEAS REACH 5 FEET THIS EVENING AND THEN THE
LIKELIHOOD OF NON CONVECTIVE WEST WIND GUSTS REACHING THE CRITERIA
ON DELAWARE BAY AS WELL AS THE OCEAN WATERS DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE BRINGS SIX FOOT SEAS AS IS INTO OUR
COASTAL WATERS, SHAVING A FOOT OR SO OFF WOULD STILL GET US THERE
TONIGHT. TOUGH NIGHT AS IT IS WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. ON MONDAY
MORE OF THE GUSTINESS MAY BE CONCENTRATED AROUND THE INLETS AND IN
DELAWARE BAY WITH POSSIBLY LESS GUSTINESS FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE
GRADIENT AND WINDS SHOULD START RELAXING LATER IN THE DAY ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT, SUBSIDING AND REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...GIGI/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON





000
FXUS61 KPHI 271934
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
334 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND
LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY, AND
REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR THROUGH THE END OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION CONTINUES TO LOOK SLIGHTLY BETTER AT 500MB
BUT ITS CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK OF VORT MAXES WHILE ON ONE LEVEL
CORRECT CONTINUE TO MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO FOLLOW THE MODEL. NEAR AND
SHORT TERM SOLUTION ARE AN ECMWF/HI RES ARW BLEND AS THE FORMER HAS
VERIFIED THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SHORT WAVES BETTER AND THE LATTER WAS
USED FOR CONVECTIVE ADJUSTMENTS AS ITS VERIFYING WELL AT 18Z.

COSPA VERIFYING TOO SLOW WITH CONVECTION LEAVING OHIO AND TOO NORTH
WITH WV CONVECTION. IT...RAP AND HRRR ALL DEVELOP CONVECTION OVER
THE ALLEGHENIES AND ADVECT IT EAST AHEAD OF ONGOING CONVECTION OVER
OH/PA BORDER ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG SHORT WAVE. SPC ANALYSIS IS
SHOWING 2000J ML CAPE IN THAT AREA AND THE STABILITY OF WAVE CLOUDS
ON VIS SATL OVER THAT AREA IS NOW GONE. SO WE WILL CONT TO START
GRIDS WITH LOW POPS THAT WILL INCREASE WITH TIME THIS EVENING.

POPS ARE TIED CLOSE TO THE ARW AND ALSO THE DEEPER LAYER MASS OMEGA
FIELDS BY THE MODELS. IN SPITE OF QPF TIMING DIFFERENCES, THE OMEGA
FIELDS TIMING ARE CLUSTERED CLOSER. THIS REMAINS A DYNAMIC SCENARIO
WITH A NEGATIVE TILT TROF AND EVEN A JET COUPLET OVER OUR CWA FOR A
WHILE OVERNIGHT. EVENTUALLY THE MLCAPE WILL DECREASE, EVEN THOUGH
THERE WILL BE NO END TO THE PREDICTED BULK SHEAR AVERAGING AROUND
40KTS. SO THE STRONGER (SEVERE?) POTENTIAL WITH THE THUNDER MAY
LINGER LONGER INTO THE NIGHT. LAST COUPLE OF COSPAS DONT CORROBORATE
THIS. FOR NOW, WE CARRIED SOME ENHANCED WORDING PAST MIDNIGHT. GIVEN
THE NEGATIVE TILT FLAVOR OF THE TROF, WHILE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY, IT
SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE. WITH FFG VALUES RUNNING AT TYPICALLY HIGH
SUMMER LEVELS, SEVERE THREAT REMAINS OUR MORE FOCUSED CONCERN.

WE WERE SLOW WITH DROPPING TEMPS THIS EVENING AND TRIED TO TIME THE
DROP TO THE ONSET OF HEAVIER RAIN. MIN TEMPS NOT THAT FAR FROM STAT
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE ANOMALOUS STRONG 500MB TROF WILL
PASS ACROSS OUR CWA ON MONDAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS (SELF DESTRUCT
SUNSHINE) WILL BE REACHED EASY AND EARLY. THE OVERALL FCST CAPE AND
INSTAB ALOFT ON THE BIG THREE MODELS ARE NOT UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR
THUNDER. OTHER THAN SOME EARLY THUNDER NORTHEAST CWA, WE KEPT IT AS
SHOWERS WITH HIGHEST POPS NORTHWEST THE REST OF THE DAY.

STAT GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS APPEARS TOO HIGH IN THE SERN CWA UNLESS
THE COLD FRONT IS 2-4HRS SLOWER THAN PROGGED. WE WERE LOWER THAN GFS
MOS THERE AND CLOSE TO A STAT GUIDANCE BLEND ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MOSTLY DRY START TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST, WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING LATER IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE AND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT, BUT
ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END BY MIDNIGHT.

MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AS PW
VALUES DROP TO AN INCH OR LOWER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT MAY
RETURN TO 1-1.25 INCHES FOR THURSDAY AND NEAR 1.5 INCHES FOR FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION, WHILE THE
BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THERE AREA NO SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSES THAT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, BUT
WITH THE TROUGH IN PLACE AND DAYTIME HEATING, THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
DAYTIME INSTABILITY TO CREATE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. EACH DAY THE CHANCES INCREASE SLIGHTLY
AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE. HOWEVER, WE DO NOT HAVE MORE THAN A SLIGHT
CHANCE PROBABILITY THROUGH FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.

AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WE GET A MORE SOLID RETURN OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA AS PW VALUES REBOUND O 1.25-1.5 INCHES. WE ALSO HAVE
A BETTER CHANCE OF VORTICITY IMPULSES AFFECTING OUR AREA WITHIN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, AND WITH THE COASTAL FRONT TRYING TO PUSH BACK
CLOSER TO SHOWER, WE MAY HAVE A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION TO FORM.
THEREFORE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED ARE FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

18Z TAFS HAVE A HIGH CONVECTIVE IMPACT DURING THIS EVENING INTO
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. VFR WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPANDING AND SOME
CIRRUS ABOVE THEM SOUTH. NO THUNDER MENTIONED ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER MIGHT FORM BEFORE THE ORGANIZED SYSTEM. LOWEST CONFIDENCE
ABOUT NO THUNDER IN PA. PLEASE WATCH FOR POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS. WINDS
ARE SLOWLY BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND MAY EVEN GO SOUTH AT SPEEDS
OF AROUND 10 KTS.

THIS EVENING, EXPECTING A LINE OF STRONG TSTMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. HIGHEST CONFID AT KABE AND KRDG. LOWEST AT KMIV AND KACY. A
EARLY TIMING HEDGE WAS MAINTAINED (MOST LIKELY TIME IS TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF THE TEMPO GROUP).  MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR (BECAUSE OF
BREVITY NOT INCLUDED) CONDITIONS LIKELY ALONG WITH GUSTY WEST
WINDS.

OVERNIGHT PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING
SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE, BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AS TO
WHERE OR WHEN TO INCLUDE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER, GENERALLY FROM
THE SOUTH. IMPROVEMENT TOWARD MORNING AS PCPN ENDS. THINKING TOO
MUCH WIND FOR SGFCNT FOG TO FORM.

MONDAY MORNING, VFR CONDITIONS WITH A CUMULUS BASED CIG OCCURRING.
GUSTY WEST WINDS, ESPECIALLY FOR JULY, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
AROUND 15 KTS AND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS. SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS SHOULD START DEVELOPING TOWARD THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF
FCST PERIOD. GREATEST CONFIDENCE NORTH, REASON FOR NOW LEFT OUT OF
KPHL TAF.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE BOTH AFTERNOONS, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY FOR THE
OCEAN WATERS. ONE WILL BE ISSUED FOR DELAWARE BAY FOR MONDAY. FIRST
FOR THE LIKELIHOOD THAT SEAS REACH 5 FEET THIS EVENING AND THEN THE
LIKELIHOOD OF NON CONVECTIVE WEST WIND GUSTS REACHING THE CRITERIA
ON DELAWARE BAY AS WELL AS THE OCEAN WATERS DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE BRINGS SIX FOOT SEAS AS IS INTO OUR
COASTAL WATERS, SHAVING A FOOT OR SO OFF WOULD STILL GET US THERE
TONIGHT. TOUGH NIGHT AS IT IS WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. ON MONDAY
MORE OF THE GUSTINESS MAY BE CONCENTRATED AROUND THE INLETS AND IN
DELAWARE BAY WITH POSSIBLY LESS GUSTINESS FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE
GRADIENT AND WINDS SHOULD START RELAXING LATER IN THE DAY ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT, SUBSIDING AND REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...GIGI/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON





000
FXUS61 KPHI 271934
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
334 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND
LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY, AND
REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR THROUGH THE END OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION CONTINUES TO LOOK SLIGHTLY BETTER AT 500MB
BUT ITS CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK OF VORT MAXES WHILE ON ONE LEVEL
CORRECT CONTINUE TO MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO FOLLOW THE MODEL. NEAR AND
SHORT TERM SOLUTION ARE AN ECMWF/HI RES ARW BLEND AS THE FORMER HAS
VERIFIED THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SHORT WAVES BETTER AND THE LATTER WAS
USED FOR CONVECTIVE ADJUSTMENTS AS ITS VERIFYING WELL AT 18Z.

COSPA VERIFYING TOO SLOW WITH CONVECTION LEAVING OHIO AND TOO NORTH
WITH WV CONVECTION. IT...RAP AND HRRR ALL DEVELOP CONVECTION OVER
THE ALLEGHENIES AND ADVECT IT EAST AHEAD OF ONGOING CONVECTION OVER
OH/PA BORDER ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG SHORT WAVE. SPC ANALYSIS IS
SHOWING 2000J ML CAPE IN THAT AREA AND THE STABILITY OF WAVE CLOUDS
ON VIS SATL OVER THAT AREA IS NOW GONE. SO WE WILL CONT TO START
GRIDS WITH LOW POPS THAT WILL INCREASE WITH TIME THIS EVENING.

POPS ARE TIED CLOSE TO THE ARW AND ALSO THE DEEPER LAYER MASS OMEGA
FIELDS BY THE MODELS. IN SPITE OF QPF TIMING DIFFERENCES, THE OMEGA
FIELDS TIMING ARE CLUSTERED CLOSER. THIS REMAINS A DYNAMIC SCENARIO
WITH A NEGATIVE TILT TROF AND EVEN A JET COUPLET OVER OUR CWA FOR A
WHILE OVERNIGHT. EVENTUALLY THE MLCAPE WILL DECREASE, EVEN THOUGH
THERE WILL BE NO END TO THE PREDICTED BULK SHEAR AVERAGING AROUND
40KTS. SO THE STRONGER (SEVERE?) POTENTIAL WITH THE THUNDER MAY
LINGER LONGER INTO THE NIGHT. LAST COUPLE OF COSPAS DONT CORROBORATE
THIS. FOR NOW, WE CARRIED SOME ENHANCED WORDING PAST MIDNIGHT. GIVEN
THE NEGATIVE TILT FLAVOR OF THE TROF, WHILE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY, IT
SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE. WITH FFG VALUES RUNNING AT TYPICALLY HIGH
SUMMER LEVELS, SEVERE THREAT REMAINS OUR MORE FOCUSED CONCERN.

WE WERE SLOW WITH DROPPING TEMPS THIS EVENING AND TRIED TO TIME THE
DROP TO THE ONSET OF HEAVIER RAIN. MIN TEMPS NOT THAT FAR FROM STAT
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE ANOMALOUS STRONG 500MB TROF WILL
PASS ACROSS OUR CWA ON MONDAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS (SELF DESTRUCT
SUNSHINE) WILL BE REACHED EASY AND EARLY. THE OVERALL FCST CAPE AND
INSTAB ALOFT ON THE BIG THREE MODELS ARE NOT UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR
THUNDER. OTHER THAN SOME EARLY THUNDER NORTHEAST CWA, WE KEPT IT AS
SHOWERS WITH HIGHEST POPS NORTHWEST THE REST OF THE DAY.

STAT GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS APPEARS TOO HIGH IN THE SERN CWA UNLESS
THE COLD FRONT IS 2-4HRS SLOWER THAN PROGGED. WE WERE LOWER THAN GFS
MOS THERE AND CLOSE TO A STAT GUIDANCE BLEND ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MOSTLY DRY START TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST, WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING LATER IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE AND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT, BUT
ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END BY MIDNIGHT.

MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AS PW
VALUES DROP TO AN INCH OR LOWER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT MAY
RETURN TO 1-1.25 INCHES FOR THURSDAY AND NEAR 1.5 INCHES FOR FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION, WHILE THE
BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THERE AREA NO SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSES THAT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, BUT
WITH THE TROUGH IN PLACE AND DAYTIME HEATING, THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
DAYTIME INSTABILITY TO CREATE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. EACH DAY THE CHANCES INCREASE SLIGHTLY
AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE. HOWEVER, WE DO NOT HAVE MORE THAN A SLIGHT
CHANCE PROBABILITY THROUGH FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.

AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WE GET A MORE SOLID RETURN OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA AS PW VALUES REBOUND O 1.25-1.5 INCHES. WE ALSO HAVE
A BETTER CHANCE OF VORTICITY IMPULSES AFFECTING OUR AREA WITHIN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, AND WITH THE COASTAL FRONT TRYING TO PUSH BACK
CLOSER TO SHOWER, WE MAY HAVE A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION TO FORM.
THEREFORE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED ARE FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

18Z TAFS HAVE A HIGH CONVECTIVE IMPACT DURING THIS EVENING INTO
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. VFR WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPANDING AND SOME
CIRRUS ABOVE THEM SOUTH. NO THUNDER MENTIONED ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER MIGHT FORM BEFORE THE ORGANIZED SYSTEM. LOWEST CONFIDENCE
ABOUT NO THUNDER IN PA. PLEASE WATCH FOR POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS. WINDS
ARE SLOWLY BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND MAY EVEN GO SOUTH AT SPEEDS
OF AROUND 10 KTS.

THIS EVENING, EXPECTING A LINE OF STRONG TSTMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. HIGHEST CONFID AT KABE AND KRDG. LOWEST AT KMIV AND KACY. A
EARLY TIMING HEDGE WAS MAINTAINED (MOST LIKELY TIME IS TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF THE TEMPO GROUP).  MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR (BECAUSE OF
BREVITY NOT INCLUDED) CONDITIONS LIKELY ALONG WITH GUSTY WEST
WINDS.

OVERNIGHT PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING
SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE, BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AS TO
WHERE OR WHEN TO INCLUDE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER, GENERALLY FROM
THE SOUTH. IMPROVEMENT TOWARD MORNING AS PCPN ENDS. THINKING TOO
MUCH WIND FOR SGFCNT FOG TO FORM.

MONDAY MORNING, VFR CONDITIONS WITH A CUMULUS BASED CIG OCCURRING.
GUSTY WEST WINDS, ESPECIALLY FOR JULY, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
AROUND 15 KTS AND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS. SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS SHOULD START DEVELOPING TOWARD THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF
FCST PERIOD. GREATEST CONFIDENCE NORTH, REASON FOR NOW LEFT OUT OF
KPHL TAF.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE BOTH AFTERNOONS, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY FOR THE
OCEAN WATERS. ONE WILL BE ISSUED FOR DELAWARE BAY FOR MONDAY. FIRST
FOR THE LIKELIHOOD THAT SEAS REACH 5 FEET THIS EVENING AND THEN THE
LIKELIHOOD OF NON CONVECTIVE WEST WIND GUSTS REACHING THE CRITERIA
ON DELAWARE BAY AS WELL AS THE OCEAN WATERS DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE BRINGS SIX FOOT SEAS AS IS INTO OUR
COASTAL WATERS, SHAVING A FOOT OR SO OFF WOULD STILL GET US THERE
TONIGHT. TOUGH NIGHT AS IT IS WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. ON MONDAY
MORE OF THE GUSTINESS MAY BE CONCENTRATED AROUND THE INLETS AND IN
DELAWARE BAY WITH POSSIBLY LESS GUSTINESS FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE
GRADIENT AND WINDS SHOULD START RELAXING LATER IN THE DAY ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT, SUBSIDING AND REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...GIGI/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON





000
FXUS61 KPHI 271934
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
334 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND
LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY, AND
REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR THROUGH THE END OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION CONTINUES TO LOOK SLIGHTLY BETTER AT 500MB
BUT ITS CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK OF VORT MAXES WHILE ON ONE LEVEL
CORRECT CONTINUE TO MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO FOLLOW THE MODEL. NEAR AND
SHORT TERM SOLUTION ARE AN ECMWF/HI RES ARW BLEND AS THE FORMER HAS
VERIFIED THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SHORT WAVES BETTER AND THE LATTER WAS
USED FOR CONVECTIVE ADJUSTMENTS AS ITS VERIFYING WELL AT 18Z.

COSPA VERIFYING TOO SLOW WITH CONVECTION LEAVING OHIO AND TOO NORTH
WITH WV CONVECTION. IT...RAP AND HRRR ALL DEVELOP CONVECTION OVER
THE ALLEGHENIES AND ADVECT IT EAST AHEAD OF ONGOING CONVECTION OVER
OH/PA BORDER ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG SHORT WAVE. SPC ANALYSIS IS
SHOWING 2000J ML CAPE IN THAT AREA AND THE STABILITY OF WAVE CLOUDS
ON VIS SATL OVER THAT AREA IS NOW GONE. SO WE WILL CONT TO START
GRIDS WITH LOW POPS THAT WILL INCREASE WITH TIME THIS EVENING.

POPS ARE TIED CLOSE TO THE ARW AND ALSO THE DEEPER LAYER MASS OMEGA
FIELDS BY THE MODELS. IN SPITE OF QPF TIMING DIFFERENCES, THE OMEGA
FIELDS TIMING ARE CLUSTERED CLOSER. THIS REMAINS A DYNAMIC SCENARIO
WITH A NEGATIVE TILT TROF AND EVEN A JET COUPLET OVER OUR CWA FOR A
WHILE OVERNIGHT. EVENTUALLY THE MLCAPE WILL DECREASE, EVEN THOUGH
THERE WILL BE NO END TO THE PREDICTED BULK SHEAR AVERAGING AROUND
40KTS. SO THE STRONGER (SEVERE?) POTENTIAL WITH THE THUNDER MAY
LINGER LONGER INTO THE NIGHT. LAST COUPLE OF COSPAS DONT CORROBORATE
THIS. FOR NOW, WE CARRIED SOME ENHANCED WORDING PAST MIDNIGHT. GIVEN
THE NEGATIVE TILT FLAVOR OF THE TROF, WHILE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY, IT
SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE. WITH FFG VALUES RUNNING AT TYPICALLY HIGH
SUMMER LEVELS, SEVERE THREAT REMAINS OUR MORE FOCUSED CONCERN.

WE WERE SLOW WITH DROPPING TEMPS THIS EVENING AND TRIED TO TIME THE
DROP TO THE ONSET OF HEAVIER RAIN. MIN TEMPS NOT THAT FAR FROM STAT
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE ANOMALOUS STRONG 500MB TROF WILL
PASS ACROSS OUR CWA ON MONDAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS (SELF DESTRUCT
SUNSHINE) WILL BE REACHED EASY AND EARLY. THE OVERALL FCST CAPE AND
INSTAB ALOFT ON THE BIG THREE MODELS ARE NOT UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR
THUNDER. OTHER THAN SOME EARLY THUNDER NORTHEAST CWA, WE KEPT IT AS
SHOWERS WITH HIGHEST POPS NORTHWEST THE REST OF THE DAY.

STAT GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS APPEARS TOO HIGH IN THE SERN CWA UNLESS
THE COLD FRONT IS 2-4HRS SLOWER THAN PROGGED. WE WERE LOWER THAN GFS
MOS THERE AND CLOSE TO A STAT GUIDANCE BLEND ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MOSTLY DRY START TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST, WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING LATER IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE AND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT, BUT
ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END BY MIDNIGHT.

MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AS PW
VALUES DROP TO AN INCH OR LOWER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT MAY
RETURN TO 1-1.25 INCHES FOR THURSDAY AND NEAR 1.5 INCHES FOR FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION, WHILE THE
BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THERE AREA NO SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSES THAT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, BUT
WITH THE TROUGH IN PLACE AND DAYTIME HEATING, THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
DAYTIME INSTABILITY TO CREATE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. EACH DAY THE CHANCES INCREASE SLIGHTLY
AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE. HOWEVER, WE DO NOT HAVE MORE THAN A SLIGHT
CHANCE PROBABILITY THROUGH FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.

AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WE GET A MORE SOLID RETURN OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA AS PW VALUES REBOUND O 1.25-1.5 INCHES. WE ALSO HAVE
A BETTER CHANCE OF VORTICITY IMPULSES AFFECTING OUR AREA WITHIN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, AND WITH THE COASTAL FRONT TRYING TO PUSH BACK
CLOSER TO SHOWER, WE MAY HAVE A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION TO FORM.
THEREFORE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED ARE FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

18Z TAFS HAVE A HIGH CONVECTIVE IMPACT DURING THIS EVENING INTO
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. VFR WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPANDING AND SOME
CIRRUS ABOVE THEM SOUTH. NO THUNDER MENTIONED ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER MIGHT FORM BEFORE THE ORGANIZED SYSTEM. LOWEST CONFIDENCE
ABOUT NO THUNDER IN PA. PLEASE WATCH FOR POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS. WINDS
ARE SLOWLY BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND MAY EVEN GO SOUTH AT SPEEDS
OF AROUND 10 KTS.

THIS EVENING, EXPECTING A LINE OF STRONG TSTMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. HIGHEST CONFID AT KABE AND KRDG. LOWEST AT KMIV AND KACY. A
EARLY TIMING HEDGE WAS MAINTAINED (MOST LIKELY TIME IS TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF THE TEMPO GROUP).  MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR (BECAUSE OF
BREVITY NOT INCLUDED) CONDITIONS LIKELY ALONG WITH GUSTY WEST
WINDS.

OVERNIGHT PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING
SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE, BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AS TO
WHERE OR WHEN TO INCLUDE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER, GENERALLY FROM
THE SOUTH. IMPROVEMENT TOWARD MORNING AS PCPN ENDS. THINKING TOO
MUCH WIND FOR SGFCNT FOG TO FORM.

MONDAY MORNING, VFR CONDITIONS WITH A CUMULUS BASED CIG OCCURRING.
GUSTY WEST WINDS, ESPECIALLY FOR JULY, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
AROUND 15 KTS AND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS. SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS SHOULD START DEVELOPING TOWARD THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF
FCST PERIOD. GREATEST CONFIDENCE NORTH, REASON FOR NOW LEFT OUT OF
KPHL TAF.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE BOTH AFTERNOONS, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY FOR THE
OCEAN WATERS. ONE WILL BE ISSUED FOR DELAWARE BAY FOR MONDAY. FIRST
FOR THE LIKELIHOOD THAT SEAS REACH 5 FEET THIS EVENING AND THEN THE
LIKELIHOOD OF NON CONVECTIVE WEST WIND GUSTS REACHING THE CRITERIA
ON DELAWARE BAY AS WELL AS THE OCEAN WATERS DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE BRINGS SIX FOOT SEAS AS IS INTO OUR
COASTAL WATERS, SHAVING A FOOT OR SO OFF WOULD STILL GET US THERE
TONIGHT. TOUGH NIGHT AS IT IS WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. ON MONDAY
MORE OF THE GUSTINESS MAY BE CONCENTRATED AROUND THE INLETS AND IN
DELAWARE BAY WITH POSSIBLY LESS GUSTINESS FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE
GRADIENT AND WINDS SHOULD START RELAXING LATER IN THE DAY ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT, SUBSIDING AND REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...GIGI/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271900
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
300 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON..THEN CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
STILL SOME UNCERTAINITIES WRT THE WX ACROSS THE AREA NEXT 6-12 HRS.
SO BASED THE FCST FOR NEXT SVRL HRS OFF OF CRNT RADAR/SFC TRENDS.
BAND OF SHWRS/TSTRMS MOVG EAST ACROSS SRN TIER VA AND NE NC CNTYS
WILL CONT TO MOVE EAST SO KEPT THE LIKELY POPS THERE. JUST SOME
SHWRS NOTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA ATTM. VSBY SAT LOOP SHOWING
PARTIAL THINNING OF THE CLOUDS ACROSS PIEDMONT AREAS. SHORT RANGE
MOS NUMBERS SHOW TMPS QUICKLY RISING INTO THE 80S IF ADDNTL HEATING
CAN OCCUR. SO LEFT HIGH TMPS ALONE FOR NOW (85-90).

WRT CONVECTION LATER TODAY...MAIN ACTION SHIFTS TO THE S/W ENERGY
OVR KY PROGGED TO DRIFT SE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVE. CRNT TRAJECTORY
TRACKS MOST OF THE CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF I64. HOWEVER..STILL
EXPECT ADDNTL CONVECTION TO DVLP OVR THE MTS THEN MERGE WITH THE
ADVANCING S/W ENERGY. SVR PTNTL STILL EXISTS IF TMPS ARE ABLE TO
RISE TO FCST LEVELS. STAY TUNED.

PVS DSCN:
MADE SOME CHANGES TO GRIDS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS SFC OBS
AND MODEL GUIDANCE. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ACCOUNT FOR LINE OF
CONVECTION MARCHING EAST ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT ATTM. HRRR SEEMS
TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON THE CRNT TRENDS...SO INCREASED POPS TO
LIKELY ACROSS SRN MOST COUNTIES NEXT SVRL HRS AS THIS LINE MOVES
EAST.. VSBY SAT LOOP SHOWING SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE AHEAD OF IT TO
KEEP THE LINE GOING.

LOWERED TMPS BY A CATEGORY MOST PLACES (CLOSER TO LAV GUID) GIVEN
ALL THE CLOUDS AND PCPN FROM THE MORNING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. TUFF
CALL FOR SERN COUNTIES AS TMPS MAY GET TO 90 THERE...BUT THEN DROP
IN ANY CONVECTION BY ERLY AFTRN.

MAIN QUESTION FOR THIS AFTRN IS HOW MUCH HEATING WILL OCCUR BEHIND
THE FIRST DEPARTING S/W AND AHEAD OF NXT APPRCHG S/W NOW OVR KY
VLLY. LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THIS COMPLEX TAKING A MORE SOUTHERLY
ROUTE (ACROSS SRN HALF OF VA / NC THIS EVENING.

SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE FA OUTLOOKED IN SLGHT RISK WITH A RECENTLY
ISSUED PWO FOR AREAS TO OUR WEST. STAY TUNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE STRONG COLD FRONT QUICKLY PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE FOCUSED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AND RE-FIRE IN INTENSITY DUE TO THE ADDED LIFT. OVERALL...
PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS UNTIL THE FRONT CAN
PUSH WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING.
ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS DIMINISHED ON
MONDAY...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
WEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH AS A COOLER
AND DRIER CANADIAN AIRMASS FILTERS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW-N.
WINDS AND SUNSHINE WILL BE KEY PLAYERS IN HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY.
CURRENT FORECAST RANGES FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO 90-95 SE.


BNDRY PROGGED TO STALL INVOF GULF STREAM MON NIGHT AND TUE WHILE A
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. KEPT SLGHT CHC
POPS ALONG SERN CSTL AREAS MON EVENING. LOWS IN THE 60S...XCPT L70S
SERN CSTL AREAS. DRY TUESDAY ALONG WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AS DEWPOINTS
DROP INTO THE 50S. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE L80S...U70S AT
THE BEACHES. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S W TO MID 60S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF DIGS OVR THE MID ATLC REGION TUE NGT
INTO EARLY THU...BEFORE RETROGRADING BACK INTO THE OH AND MS VALLEYS
THU AFTN THRU SAT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OFF THE MID ATLC
CST TUE NGT THRU FRI...THEN DRIFTS BACK TWD THE CST FRI NGT THRU
SAT. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR TUE NGT THRU FRI...THEN HAVE ADDED
SLGT CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT AND SAT. A MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL
DOMINATE THE AREA TUE NGT THRU THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LWR TO MID 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S
TO MID 60S WED AND THU MORNGS...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI
MORNG...AND RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUD COVER WAS PUTTING A DAMPER ON CONVECTION TODAY. BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST MAY HELP TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCT TSTMS LATER TODAY AND EARLY
THIS EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. IN THE MEANTIME...AN
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING THROUGH HAMPTON ROADS/ECG AREA WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER THE START OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.

INCLUDED A FEW OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AT ALL THE TAF SITES EXCEPT ECG.
THESE COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH TSTMS. WEST WINDS DEVELOP IN THE
MORNING BEHIND A PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND. THESE WINDS DRY OUT THE
ATMOSPHERE AND SHOULD END THE PCPN. THE FRONT ITSELF MOVES THROUGH
EARLY IN THE AFTN. AT THIS POINT AND APPEARS TO BE A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

NO IFR WAS PLACED IN THE TAFS. MVFR FOG IS PSBL AT SBY AND ECG PRIOR
TO THE W/SW WINDS.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG IS PSBL NEAR SUNRISE BUT WIDESPREAD
IFR IS NOT INDICATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES XPCD THRU MON. A CDFNT PUSHES APPROACHES THE MID ATLC
REGION TDA...THEN MOVE ACRS THE WTRS AND OFF THE CST LATE TNGT
THROUGH MON NGT. SSW WINDS 10 TO 20 KT THROUGH TNGT. WINDS WILL TURN
TO THE W DURING MON...THEN NW AND N MON NGT INTO TUE MRNG.
WAVES/SEAS LIKELY TO RISE A FOOT OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO INCRSD SPDS
AND DIRECTION CHG TO NNW (MON NGT INTO TUE). GENERALLY NNE WINDS
15 KT OR LESS EXPECTED FOR TUE THRU THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD/MPR
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...ALB







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271900
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
300 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON..THEN CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
STILL SOME UNCERTAINITIES WRT THE WX ACROSS THE AREA NEXT 6-12 HRS.
SO BASED THE FCST FOR NEXT SVRL HRS OFF OF CRNT RADAR/SFC TRENDS.
BAND OF SHWRS/TSTRMS MOVG EAST ACROSS SRN TIER VA AND NE NC CNTYS
WILL CONT TO MOVE EAST SO KEPT THE LIKELY POPS THERE. JUST SOME
SHWRS NOTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA ATTM. VSBY SAT LOOP SHOWING
PARTIAL THINNING OF THE CLOUDS ACROSS PIEDMONT AREAS. SHORT RANGE
MOS NUMBERS SHOW TMPS QUICKLY RISING INTO THE 80S IF ADDNTL HEATING
CAN OCCUR. SO LEFT HIGH TMPS ALONE FOR NOW (85-90).

WRT CONVECTION LATER TODAY...MAIN ACTION SHIFTS TO THE S/W ENERGY
OVR KY PROGGED TO DRIFT SE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVE. CRNT TRAJECTORY
TRACKS MOST OF THE CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF I64. HOWEVER..STILL
EXPECT ADDNTL CONVECTION TO DVLP OVR THE MTS THEN MERGE WITH THE
ADVANCING S/W ENERGY. SVR PTNTL STILL EXISTS IF TMPS ARE ABLE TO
RISE TO FCST LEVELS. STAY TUNED.

PVS DSCN:
MADE SOME CHANGES TO GRIDS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS SFC OBS
AND MODEL GUIDANCE. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ACCOUNT FOR LINE OF
CONVECTION MARCHING EAST ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT ATTM. HRRR SEEMS
TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON THE CRNT TRENDS...SO INCREASED POPS TO
LIKELY ACROSS SRN MOST COUNTIES NEXT SVRL HRS AS THIS LINE MOVES
EAST.. VSBY SAT LOOP SHOWING SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE AHEAD OF IT TO
KEEP THE LINE GOING.

LOWERED TMPS BY A CATEGORY MOST PLACES (CLOSER TO LAV GUID) GIVEN
ALL THE CLOUDS AND PCPN FROM THE MORNING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. TUFF
CALL FOR SERN COUNTIES AS TMPS MAY GET TO 90 THERE...BUT THEN DROP
IN ANY CONVECTION BY ERLY AFTRN.

MAIN QUESTION FOR THIS AFTRN IS HOW MUCH HEATING WILL OCCUR BEHIND
THE FIRST DEPARTING S/W AND AHEAD OF NXT APPRCHG S/W NOW OVR KY
VLLY. LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THIS COMPLEX TAKING A MORE SOUTHERLY
ROUTE (ACROSS SRN HALF OF VA / NC THIS EVENING.

SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE FA OUTLOOKED IN SLGHT RISK WITH A RECENTLY
ISSUED PWO FOR AREAS TO OUR WEST. STAY TUNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE STRONG COLD FRONT QUICKLY PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE FOCUSED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AND RE-FIRE IN INTENSITY DUE TO THE ADDED LIFT. OVERALL...
PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS UNTIL THE FRONT CAN
PUSH WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING.
ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS DIMINISHED ON
MONDAY...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
WEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH AS A COOLER
AND DRIER CANADIAN AIRMASS FILTERS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW-N.
WINDS AND SUNSHINE WILL BE KEY PLAYERS IN HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY.
CURRENT FORECAST RANGES FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO 90-95 SE.


BNDRY PROGGED TO STALL INVOF GULF STREAM MON NIGHT AND TUE WHILE A
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. KEPT SLGHT CHC
POPS ALONG SERN CSTL AREAS MON EVENING. LOWS IN THE 60S...XCPT L70S
SERN CSTL AREAS. DRY TUESDAY ALONG WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AS DEWPOINTS
DROP INTO THE 50S. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE L80S...U70S AT
THE BEACHES. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S W TO MID 60S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF DIGS OVR THE MID ATLC REGION TUE NGT
INTO EARLY THU...BEFORE RETROGRADING BACK INTO THE OH AND MS VALLEYS
THU AFTN THRU SAT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OFF THE MID ATLC
CST TUE NGT THRU FRI...THEN DRIFTS BACK TWD THE CST FRI NGT THRU
SAT. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR TUE NGT THRU FRI...THEN HAVE ADDED
SLGT CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT AND SAT. A MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL
DOMINATE THE AREA TUE NGT THRU THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LWR TO MID 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S
TO MID 60S WED AND THU MORNGS...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI
MORNG...AND RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUD COVER WAS PUTTING A DAMPER ON CONVECTION TODAY. BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST MAY HELP TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCT TSTMS LATER TODAY AND EARLY
THIS EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. IN THE MEANTIME...AN
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING THROUGH HAMPTON ROADS/ECG AREA WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER THE START OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.

INCLUDED A FEW OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AT ALL THE TAF SITES EXCEPT ECG.
THESE COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH TSTMS. WEST WINDS DEVELOP IN THE
MORNING BEHIND A PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND. THESE WINDS DRY OUT THE
ATMOSPHERE AND SHOULD END THE PCPN. THE FRONT ITSELF MOVES THROUGH
EARLY IN THE AFTN. AT THIS POINT AND APPEARS TO BE A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

NO IFR WAS PLACED IN THE TAFS. MVFR FOG IS PSBL AT SBY AND ECG PRIOR
TO THE W/SW WINDS.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG IS PSBL NEAR SUNRISE BUT WIDESPREAD
IFR IS NOT INDICATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES XPCD THRU MON. A CDFNT PUSHES APPROACHES THE MID ATLC
REGION TDA...THEN MOVE ACRS THE WTRS AND OFF THE CST LATE TNGT
THROUGH MON NGT. SSW WINDS 10 TO 20 KT THROUGH TNGT. WINDS WILL TURN
TO THE W DURING MON...THEN NW AND N MON NGT INTO TUE MRNG.
WAVES/SEAS LIKELY TO RISE A FOOT OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO INCRSD SPDS
AND DIRECTION CHG TO NNW (MON NGT INTO TUE). GENERALLY NNE WINDS
15 KT OR LESS EXPECTED FOR TUE THRU THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD/MPR
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...ALB






000
FXUS61 KLWX 271847
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
247 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER MICHIGAN IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WHILE A SFC LOW RESIDES JUST AHEAD OF IT OVER SRN MI THIS AFTERNOON. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM MI THROUGH IN/KY. AHEAD OF THIS
COLD FRONT...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE LED TO DEWPTS TO CLIMB AROUND 70
DEG F IN THE MID-ATLANTIC. A FEW DISTURBANCES HAVE CROSSED THE
REGION TODAY CAUSING A CHAOTIC CLOUD DECK RESULTING IN SOME AREAS
WARMING FASTER THAN OTHERS. THIS INCLUDES NRN MD AND THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN THIS AREA TO
THE UPPER 70S NEAR CHO.

PER THE MESOANALYSIS...INSTABILITY HAS RISEN TO 1K-2K J/KG ACROSS
THE REGION WITH 2K-3K J/KG NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE WHERE MOST OF
THE HEATING HAS OCCURRED. 0-6 KM SHEAR HAS INCREASED TO 40-50 KTS.
THE EXIT REGION OF THE JET STREAM IS STILL BACK ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY BUT WILL MOVE EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM OHIO AND TRACK E-SE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE AND
SUITABLE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FORM ON
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND MOVE EASTWARD BY THIS
EVENING. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CROSS THE APPALACHIANS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON REACHING THE I-95 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. SUPERCELLS ARE
EXPECTED AND WILL LIKELY LEAD TO DMG WINDS...LARGE
HAILS...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME FFG IS
HIGH AND PWATS ARE MARGINAL. FLASH FLOODING IS ALWAYS A CONCERN
WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE OVER THE SAME REGION AND THEREFORE IT
IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
BEEN IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE
LOWER INSTABILITY...AT THIS TIME. THEY ARE TRACKING INTO A
FAVORABLE AREA AND WILL BE MONITORED CLOSLY.

THE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE LATE TONIGHT
WHILE THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE BAY BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE TROUGH WILL BE OVER NY MONDAY AND WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
OFF THE COAST. AS ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MONDAY
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY I-66 AND
NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

FCST MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE HIGHLANDS
TO THE LOW 60S NEAR THE METROS AND WATERS. NRLY WINDS WIL CONTINUE
TUESDAY AND TEMPS WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S WHICH WILL FEEL
LIKE A FALL DAY FOR THE MID-ATLATNIC.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEAN TROUGHING WILL PERSIST ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. DRY AIR AND NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY AND COOLER
THAN NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD.

MODELS INDICATE THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE BACK WEST OF
THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
RE-ESTABLISHES ITS HOLD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES BACK/REDEVELOPS TO OUR WEST...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
INCREASING THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AS WELL AS THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND
WOULD SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THE LONG AND
PERSISTENT TRAJECTORY OF WIND OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDING ALONG
A STALLED OR SLOW-MOVING FRONT.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND LIKELY IMPACT THE
TERMINALS. MVFR/IFR IS LIKELY IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE RESULTING IN
STRONG WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. HEAVY RAIN WILL
ALSO CAUSE LOW VSBYS. THIS ACTIVITY ALL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE THROUGH MRB
THE EVENING TO THE DCA-BWI-MTN BY MIDNIGHT.

N-NW WINDS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY. SHRA AND -TSRA IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY AS ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. NW WINDS AROUND
10-15KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS.

NW FLOW GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS W/ VFR TUE-THU.

&&

.MARINE...
S-SW FLOW EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BECOME NWLY
MONDAY. A SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. PORTIONS
OF THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC AND CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL DROP LATE
TONIGHT. A SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE WATERS MONDAY.

RELATIVELY BENIGN SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NEARBY OR OVERHEAD TUE NIGHT-FRI IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS. WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE NEXT
WEEKEND...POSSIBLY TO SCA LEVELS BUT THAT IS UNCLEAR THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ530-531-
     535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...HAS/DFH
MARINE...HAS/DFH







000
FXUS61 KLWX 271847
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
247 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER MICHIGAN IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WHILE A SFC LOW RESIDES JUST AHEAD OF IT OVER SRN MI THIS AFTERNOON. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM MI THROUGH IN/KY. AHEAD OF THIS
COLD FRONT...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE LED TO DEWPTS TO CLIMB AROUND 70
DEG F IN THE MID-ATLANTIC. A FEW DISTURBANCES HAVE CROSSED THE
REGION TODAY CAUSING A CHAOTIC CLOUD DECK RESULTING IN SOME AREAS
WARMING FASTER THAN OTHERS. THIS INCLUDES NRN MD AND THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN THIS AREA TO
THE UPPER 70S NEAR CHO.

PER THE MESOANALYSIS...INSTABILITY HAS RISEN TO 1K-2K J/KG ACROSS
THE REGION WITH 2K-3K J/KG NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE WHERE MOST OF
THE HEATING HAS OCCURRED. 0-6 KM SHEAR HAS INCREASED TO 40-50 KTS.
THE EXIT REGION OF THE JET STREAM IS STILL BACK ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY BUT WILL MOVE EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM OHIO AND TRACK E-SE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE AND
SUITABLE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FORM ON
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND MOVE EASTWARD BY THIS
EVENING. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CROSS THE APPALACHIANS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON REACHING THE I-95 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. SUPERCELLS ARE
EXPECTED AND WILL LIKELY LEAD TO DMG WINDS...LARGE
HAILS...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME FFG IS
HIGH AND PWATS ARE MARGINAL. FLASH FLOODING IS ALWAYS A CONCERN
WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE OVER THE SAME REGION AND THEREFORE IT
IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
BEEN IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE
LOWER INSTABILITY...AT THIS TIME. THEY ARE TRACKING INTO A
FAVORABLE AREA AND WILL BE MONITORED CLOSLY.

THE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE LATE TONIGHT
WHILE THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE BAY BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE TROUGH WILL BE OVER NY MONDAY AND WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
OFF THE COAST. AS ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MONDAY
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY I-66 AND
NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

FCST MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE HIGHLANDS
TO THE LOW 60S NEAR THE METROS AND WATERS. NRLY WINDS WIL CONTINUE
TUESDAY AND TEMPS WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S WHICH WILL FEEL
LIKE A FALL DAY FOR THE MID-ATLATNIC.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEAN TROUGHING WILL PERSIST ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. DRY AIR AND NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY AND COOLER
THAN NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD.

MODELS INDICATE THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE BACK WEST OF
THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
RE-ESTABLISHES ITS HOLD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES BACK/REDEVELOPS TO OUR WEST...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
INCREASING THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AS WELL AS THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND
WOULD SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THE LONG AND
PERSISTENT TRAJECTORY OF WIND OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDING ALONG
A STALLED OR SLOW-MOVING FRONT.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND LIKELY IMPACT THE
TERMINALS. MVFR/IFR IS LIKELY IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE RESULTING IN
STRONG WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. HEAVY RAIN WILL
ALSO CAUSE LOW VSBYS. THIS ACTIVITY ALL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE THROUGH MRB
THE EVENING TO THE DCA-BWI-MTN BY MIDNIGHT.

N-NW WINDS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY. SHRA AND -TSRA IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY AS ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. NW WINDS AROUND
10-15KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS.

NW FLOW GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS W/ VFR TUE-THU.

&&

.MARINE...
S-SW FLOW EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BECOME NWLY
MONDAY. A SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. PORTIONS
OF THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC AND CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL DROP LATE
TONIGHT. A SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE WATERS MONDAY.

RELATIVELY BENIGN SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NEARBY OR OVERHEAD TUE NIGHT-FRI IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS. WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE NEXT
WEEKEND...POSSIBLY TO SCA LEVELS BUT THAT IS UNCLEAR THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ530-531-
     535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...HAS/DFH
MARINE...HAS/DFH








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271804
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
204 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME SEVERE...WILL PLAGUE THE
UPPER OHIO REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID AFTN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST FOR TORNADO WATCH AND HOURLY
TRENDS BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES.

TSTMS WL CONT DVLPG AS SFC TEMPS ARE NR/EXCEED CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS...AND
AS MID LVLS COOL WITH THE ADVN OF GREAT LAKES LOW PRES. DEEP LYR
SHEAR WL ALSO INCRS AS MID...AND LOW LVL FLOWS IMPROVE INTO THE EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SWING IN BEHIND IT. STORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE EXITING TROUGH ON
MONDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY MONDAY AND WITH LOTS OF CLOUD
COVER...STORM THREAT SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED.

SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

TUESDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND
COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY. WARMER AIR AND THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STG TO SVR TSTMS ARE EXPECTED INTO ERLY EVE WITH ADVNG LOW PRES.
TEMPO TSTM MENTIONS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR ALL PORTS.
THEREAFTER...EXPECT MVFR TO DEVELOP OVRNGT IN ST/SC AND SHWRS.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY MON AS A CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271804
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
204 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME SEVERE...WILL PLAGUE THE
UPPER OHIO REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID AFTN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST FOR TORNADO WATCH AND HOURLY
TRENDS BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES.

TSTMS WL CONT DVLPG AS SFC TEMPS ARE NR/EXCEED CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS...AND
AS MID LVLS COOL WITH THE ADVN OF GREAT LAKES LOW PRES. DEEP LYR
SHEAR WL ALSO INCRS AS MID...AND LOW LVL FLOWS IMPROVE INTO THE EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SWING IN BEHIND IT. STORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE EXITING TROUGH ON
MONDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY MONDAY AND WITH LOTS OF CLOUD
COVER...STORM THREAT SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED.

SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

TUESDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND
COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY. WARMER AIR AND THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STG TO SVR TSTMS ARE EXPECTED INTO ERLY EVE WITH ADVNG LOW PRES.
TEMPO TSTM MENTIONS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR ALL PORTS.
THEREAFTER...EXPECT MVFR TO DEVELOP OVRNGT IN ST/SC AND SHWRS.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY MON AS A CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS61 KPHI 271707
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
107 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY, BUILDING
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO BIG CHANGES ARE PLANNED WITH THIS UPDATE. KPBZ MORNING SOUNDING
SHOWING WHY THERE IS A LULL IN ACTIVITY AT THE PRESENT MOMENT AS
THERE WAS A POCKET OF COOL AIR ADVECTION OVER PA AT 925MB AND
850MB. GENERAL UA ANALYSIS SHOWING A PAIR OF 700MB TROFS, ONE JUST
EAST OF THE SUSQ VALLEY AND THE OTHER IN THE CENTRAL OH VALLEY.
THIS ALSO COINCIDES WITH MUCH DRIER AIR AT 500MB AND THE EXIT
REGION OF THE APPROACHING 300/250MB JET. THIS IS THE REAL DEAL AS
THERE IS WAA WEST OF PBZ AT 925/850MB AS WELL AS PRESENTLY THE
BEST VALUES OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND ML CAPES ALREADY EXCEEDING
1000J.

LOCALLY THE WEST WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE HAVE
DROPPED DEW POINTS BACK DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S MOST
PLACES. CONVECTIVE TEMPS THOUGH ARE IN THE LOWER 80S NORTH, BUT
NEAR 90 DELMARVA. THE DELMARVA PBLM IS COMPLICATED BY DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS OVERHEAD AND TO THE WEST.

THUS THE WAITING GAME CONTINUES WITH THE HARDEST AND MOST LIKELY
IMPACT FOR OUR CWA DURING TONIGHT. THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE
POPPING SOME DISCRETE CELLS DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE ABOUT THE POCONOS THAN THE BLUE
RIDGE ATTM BECAUSE OF CLOUDS OVER THE LATTER. BUT THE AFTERNOON IS
LONG ENOUGH THAT NEITHER CAN BE DISCOUNTED. GIVEN THE PREDICTED
INCREASE IN BULK SHEAR, THESE TOO ARE CAPABLE OF BEING
STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS AND WE WILL KEEP ENHANCED WORDING IN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

GIVEN HOW QUICKLY TEMPERATURES ARE RESPONDING, WE ARE GOING TO UP
MAX TEMPS TO INCLUDE SOME 90S. BUT DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED AND
THIS KEEPS HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW ANY HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT, THE AFOREMENTIONED CDFNT WILL CROSS THE REGION.  THE
HIGHEST POPS THRU THIS WHOLE EVENT COULD END UP BEING TONIGHT FIRST
WITH TSTMS THEN WITH SOME SHWRS.  THERE ARE STILL TIMING ISSUES WRT
TO THE FRONT, BUT IT STILL WILL NOT HAVE CLEARED THE REGION BY
DAYBREAK MON.  THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF, WHICH IS NOT
SURPRISING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

IN THE MID LEVELS...A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES, WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH IT
DURING THE WEEK. THE TROUGH STARTS TO RETROGRADE AND WILL DEEPEN AS
IT SETTLES TO OUR WEST.

BY MONDAY MORNING, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WILL BE MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS LOW WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION DURING THE MORNING, CROSSING
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES INCHING UP TOWARDS 2 INCHES, THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT
PUSHES OFFSHORE, WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND
EVENTUALLY WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WHILE IT
APPEARS WE SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THIS WEEK WITH THE HIGH
BUILDING INTO OUR AREA, SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND MAY HELP TO
SPARK OFF SOME SHOWERS. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE
SHORTWAVES MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FROM DAY TO DAY.

AS THE TROUGH RETROGRADES, IT DEEPENS AND AS A RESULT, WE SHOULD
START TO HAVE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA. SHORTWAVES
WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE MID LEVEL FLOW AND AGAIN MAY AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK AND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

WITH THE DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH NEAR OUR AREA, OUR TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL OFF A BIT AND BE BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. AS THE TROUGH STARTS TO PUSH TO THE WEST, WE SHOULD START
TO SEE A MODERATION IN THE TEMPERATURES OCCUR FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

18Z TAFS HAVE A HIGH CONVECTIVE IMPACT DURING THIS EVENING INTO
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS.

THIS AFTERNOON. VFR WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPANDING AND SOME CIRRUS
ABOVE THEM SOUTH. NO THUNDER MENTIONED ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER MIGHT FORM BEFORE THE ORGANIZED SYSTEM. LOWEST CONFIDENCE
ABOUT NO THUNDER IN PA. PLEASE WATCH FOR UPDATES. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY BACK FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST OR EVEN SOUTH AT SPEEDS OF
AROUND 10 KTS.

THIS EVENING, EXPECTING A LINE OF STRONG TSTMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. HIGHEST CONFID AT KABE AND KRDG. LOWEST AT KMIV AND KACY. A
EARLY TIMING HEDGE WAS MAINTAINED (MOST LIKELY TIME IS TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF THE TEMPO GROUP).  MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR (BECAUSE OF
BREVITY NOT INCLUDED) CONDITIONS LIKELY ALONG WITH GUSTY WEST
WINDS.

OVERNIGHT PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING
SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE, BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AS TO
WHERE OR WHEN TO INCLUDE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER, GENERALLY FROM
THE SOUTH. IMPROVEMENT TOWARD MORNING AS PCPN ENDS. THINKING TOO
MUCH WIND FOR SGFCNT FOG TO FORM.

MONDAY MORNING, VFR CONDITIONS WITH A CUMULUS BASED CIG OCCURRING.
GUSTY WEST WINDS, ESPECIALLY FOR JULY, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
AROUND 15 KTS AND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS. SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS SHOULD START DEVELOPING TOWARD THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF
FCST PERIOD. GREATEST CONFIDENCE NORTH, REASON FOR NOW LEFT OUT OF
KPHL TAF.


OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS. LEFTOVER SHOWERS EARLY...THEN
CLEARING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING, AROUND 5 KT OR
LESS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY TO SWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA WATERS AND SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.  BY DAYBREAK MON, WE COULD BE VERY CLOSE TO
SCA CONDS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN WATERS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES ATTM.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...SEAS WILL BUILD IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT AND LOOK TO
BUILD NEAR 5 FEET WITH WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 20-25 KT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...GIGI/MEOLA
MARINE...NIERENBERG/MEOLA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 271707
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
107 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY, BUILDING
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO BIG CHANGES ARE PLANNED WITH THIS UPDATE. KPBZ MORNING SOUNDING
SHOWING WHY THERE IS A LULL IN ACTIVITY AT THE PRESENT MOMENT AS
THERE WAS A POCKET OF COOL AIR ADVECTION OVER PA AT 925MB AND
850MB. GENERAL UA ANALYSIS SHOWING A PAIR OF 700MB TROFS, ONE JUST
EAST OF THE SUSQ VALLEY AND THE OTHER IN THE CENTRAL OH VALLEY.
THIS ALSO COINCIDES WITH MUCH DRIER AIR AT 500MB AND THE EXIT
REGION OF THE APPROACHING 300/250MB JET. THIS IS THE REAL DEAL AS
THERE IS WAA WEST OF PBZ AT 925/850MB AS WELL AS PRESENTLY THE
BEST VALUES OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND ML CAPES ALREADY EXCEEDING
1000J.

LOCALLY THE WEST WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE HAVE
DROPPED DEW POINTS BACK DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S MOST
PLACES. CONVECTIVE TEMPS THOUGH ARE IN THE LOWER 80S NORTH, BUT
NEAR 90 DELMARVA. THE DELMARVA PBLM IS COMPLICATED BY DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS OVERHEAD AND TO THE WEST.

THUS THE WAITING GAME CONTINUES WITH THE HARDEST AND MOST LIKELY
IMPACT FOR OUR CWA DURING TONIGHT. THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE
POPPING SOME DISCRETE CELLS DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE ABOUT THE POCONOS THAN THE BLUE
RIDGE ATTM BECAUSE OF CLOUDS OVER THE LATTER. BUT THE AFTERNOON IS
LONG ENOUGH THAT NEITHER CAN BE DISCOUNTED. GIVEN THE PREDICTED
INCREASE IN BULK SHEAR, THESE TOO ARE CAPABLE OF BEING
STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS AND WE WILL KEEP ENHANCED WORDING IN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

GIVEN HOW QUICKLY TEMPERATURES ARE RESPONDING, WE ARE GOING TO UP
MAX TEMPS TO INCLUDE SOME 90S. BUT DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED AND
THIS KEEPS HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW ANY HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT, THE AFOREMENTIONED CDFNT WILL CROSS THE REGION.  THE
HIGHEST POPS THRU THIS WHOLE EVENT COULD END UP BEING TONIGHT FIRST
WITH TSTMS THEN WITH SOME SHWRS.  THERE ARE STILL TIMING ISSUES WRT
TO THE FRONT, BUT IT STILL WILL NOT HAVE CLEARED THE REGION BY
DAYBREAK MON.  THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF, WHICH IS NOT
SURPRISING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

IN THE MID LEVELS...A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES, WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH IT
DURING THE WEEK. THE TROUGH STARTS TO RETROGRADE AND WILL DEEPEN AS
IT SETTLES TO OUR WEST.

BY MONDAY MORNING, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WILL BE MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS LOW WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION DURING THE MORNING, CROSSING
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES INCHING UP TOWARDS 2 INCHES, THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT
PUSHES OFFSHORE, WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND
EVENTUALLY WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WHILE IT
APPEARS WE SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THIS WEEK WITH THE HIGH
BUILDING INTO OUR AREA, SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND MAY HELP TO
SPARK OFF SOME SHOWERS. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE
SHORTWAVES MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FROM DAY TO DAY.

AS THE TROUGH RETROGRADES, IT DEEPENS AND AS A RESULT, WE SHOULD
START TO HAVE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA. SHORTWAVES
WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE MID LEVEL FLOW AND AGAIN MAY AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK AND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

WITH THE DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH NEAR OUR AREA, OUR TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL OFF A BIT AND BE BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. AS THE TROUGH STARTS TO PUSH TO THE WEST, WE SHOULD START
TO SEE A MODERATION IN THE TEMPERATURES OCCUR FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

18Z TAFS HAVE A HIGH CONVECTIVE IMPACT DURING THIS EVENING INTO
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS.

THIS AFTERNOON. VFR WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPANDING AND SOME CIRRUS
ABOVE THEM SOUTH. NO THUNDER MENTIONED ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER MIGHT FORM BEFORE THE ORGANIZED SYSTEM. LOWEST CONFIDENCE
ABOUT NO THUNDER IN PA. PLEASE WATCH FOR UPDATES. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY BACK FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST OR EVEN SOUTH AT SPEEDS OF
AROUND 10 KTS.

THIS EVENING, EXPECTING A LINE OF STRONG TSTMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. HIGHEST CONFID AT KABE AND KRDG. LOWEST AT KMIV AND KACY. A
EARLY TIMING HEDGE WAS MAINTAINED (MOST LIKELY TIME IS TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF THE TEMPO GROUP).  MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR (BECAUSE OF
BREVITY NOT INCLUDED) CONDITIONS LIKELY ALONG WITH GUSTY WEST
WINDS.

OVERNIGHT PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING
SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE, BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AS TO
WHERE OR WHEN TO INCLUDE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER, GENERALLY FROM
THE SOUTH. IMPROVEMENT TOWARD MORNING AS PCPN ENDS. THINKING TOO
MUCH WIND FOR SGFCNT FOG TO FORM.

MONDAY MORNING, VFR CONDITIONS WITH A CUMULUS BASED CIG OCCURRING.
GUSTY WEST WINDS, ESPECIALLY FOR JULY, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
AROUND 15 KTS AND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS. SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS SHOULD START DEVELOPING TOWARD THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF
FCST PERIOD. GREATEST CONFIDENCE NORTH, REASON FOR NOW LEFT OUT OF
KPHL TAF.


OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS. LEFTOVER SHOWERS EARLY...THEN
CLEARING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING, AROUND 5 KT OR
LESS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY TO SWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA WATERS AND SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.  BY DAYBREAK MON, WE COULD BE VERY CLOSE TO
SCA CONDS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN WATERS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES ATTM.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...SEAS WILL BUILD IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT AND LOOK TO
BUILD NEAR 5 FEET WITH WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 20-25 KT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...GIGI/MEOLA
MARINE...NIERENBERG/MEOLA







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271613
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1213 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH THE RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER...WILL INCREASE TODAY. COOLER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY AFTN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST FOR HOURLY TRENDS OF POPS
BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES. TEMP FORECAST IS
GENLY ON TRACK...ALTHOUGH CLD COVER ALNG NWD LIFTING CNVRGNC HAVE
RETARDED HEATING OVR COUNTIES BTN THE PA TURNPIKE AND I 70.

TSTMS HAVE DVLPD ALNG THAT ZONE OVR CNTRL AND WRN OH...AND ARE
EXPECTED TO CONT DVLPG EWD. OVRALL TRENDS CONT TO FAVOR A SEVERE
EVENT LTR THIS AFTN AND THIS EVE AS THE PARENT LOW CONTS DVLPG OUT
OF THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SWING IN BEHIND IT. STORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE EXITING TROUGH ON
MONDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY MONDAY AND WITH LOTS OF CLOUD
COVER...STORM THREAT SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED.

SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

TUESDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND
COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY. WARMER AIR AND THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXP STG TO SVR TSTMS TO DVLP THIS AFTN INTO ERLY EVE WITH ADVNG
LOW PRES. INCLUDED TEMPO TSTM MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR THE MOST
LIKELY TIMES AT EACH PORT. EXP MVFR TO REDEVELOP OVRNGT IN ST/SC.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY MON AS A CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271613
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1213 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH THE RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER...WILL INCREASE TODAY. COOLER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY AFTN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST FOR HOURLY TRENDS OF POPS
BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES. TEMP FORECAST IS
GENLY ON TRACK...ALTHOUGH CLD COVER ALNG NWD LIFTING CNVRGNC HAVE
RETARDED HEATING OVR COUNTIES BTN THE PA TURNPIKE AND I 70.

TSTMS HAVE DVLPD ALNG THAT ZONE OVR CNTRL AND WRN OH...AND ARE
EXPECTED TO CONT DVLPG EWD. OVRALL TRENDS CONT TO FAVOR A SEVERE
EVENT LTR THIS AFTN AND THIS EVE AS THE PARENT LOW CONTS DVLPG OUT
OF THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SWING IN BEHIND IT. STORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE EXITING TROUGH ON
MONDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY MONDAY AND WITH LOTS OF CLOUD
COVER...STORM THREAT SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED.

SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

TUESDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND
COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY. WARMER AIR AND THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXP STG TO SVR TSTMS TO DVLP THIS AFTN INTO ERLY EVE WITH ADVNG
LOW PRES. INCLUDED TEMPO TSTM MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR THE MOST
LIKELY TIMES AT EACH PORT. EXP MVFR TO REDEVELOP OVRNGT IN ST/SC.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY MON AS A CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271613
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1213 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH THE RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER...WILL INCREASE TODAY. COOLER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY AFTN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST FOR HOURLY TRENDS OF POPS
BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES. TEMP FORECAST IS
GENLY ON TRACK...ALTHOUGH CLD COVER ALNG NWD LIFTING CNVRGNC HAVE
RETARDED HEATING OVR COUNTIES BTN THE PA TURNPIKE AND I 70.

TSTMS HAVE DVLPD ALNG THAT ZONE OVR CNTRL AND WRN OH...AND ARE
EXPECTED TO CONT DVLPG EWD. OVRALL TRENDS CONT TO FAVOR A SEVERE
EVENT LTR THIS AFTN AND THIS EVE AS THE PARENT LOW CONTS DVLPG OUT
OF THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SWING IN BEHIND IT. STORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE EXITING TROUGH ON
MONDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY MONDAY AND WITH LOTS OF CLOUD
COVER...STORM THREAT SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED.

SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

TUESDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND
COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY. WARMER AIR AND THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXP STG TO SVR TSTMS TO DVLP THIS AFTN INTO ERLY EVE WITH ADVNG
LOW PRES. INCLUDED TEMPO TSTM MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR THE MOST
LIKELY TIMES AT EACH PORT. EXP MVFR TO REDEVELOP OVRNGT IN ST/SC.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY MON AS A CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271613
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1213 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH THE RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER...WILL INCREASE TODAY. COOLER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY AFTN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST FOR HOURLY TRENDS OF POPS
BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES. TEMP FORECAST IS
GENLY ON TRACK...ALTHOUGH CLD COVER ALNG NWD LIFTING CNVRGNC HAVE
RETARDED HEATING OVR COUNTIES BTN THE PA TURNPIKE AND I 70.

TSTMS HAVE DVLPD ALNG THAT ZONE OVR CNTRL AND WRN OH...AND ARE
EXPECTED TO CONT DVLPG EWD. OVRALL TRENDS CONT TO FAVOR A SEVERE
EVENT LTR THIS AFTN AND THIS EVE AS THE PARENT LOW CONTS DVLPG OUT
OF THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SWING IN BEHIND IT. STORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE EXITING TROUGH ON
MONDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY MONDAY AND WITH LOTS OF CLOUD
COVER...STORM THREAT SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED.

SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

TUESDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND
COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY. WARMER AIR AND THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXP STG TO SVR TSTMS TO DVLP THIS AFTN INTO ERLY EVE WITH ADVNG
LOW PRES. INCLUDED TEMPO TSTM MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR THE MOST
LIKELY TIMES AT EACH PORT. EXP MVFR TO REDEVELOP OVRNGT IN ST/SC.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY MON AS A CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271601
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON..THEN CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STILL SOME UNCERTAINITIES WRT THE WX ACROSS THE AREA NEXT 6-12 HRS.
SO BASED THE FCST FOR NEXT SVRL HRS OFF OF CRNT RADAR/SFC TRENDS.
BAND OF SHWRS/TSTRMS MOVG EAST ACROSS SRN TIER VA AND NE NC CNTYS
WILL CONT TO MOVE EAST SO KEPT THE LIKELY POPS THERE. JUST SOME
SHWRS NOTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA ATTM. VSBY SAT LOOP SHOWING
PARTIAL THINNING OF THE CLOUDS ACROSS PIEDMONT AREAS. SHORT RANGE
MOS NUMBERS SHOW TMPS QUICKLY RISING INTO THE 80S IF ADDNTL HEATING
CAN OCCUR. SO LEFT HIGH TMPS ALONE FOR NOW (85-90).

WRT CONVECTION LATER TODAY...MAIN ACTION SHIFTS TO THE S/W ENERGY
OVR KY PROGGED TO DRIFT SE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVE. CRNT TRAJECTORY
TRACKS MOST OF THE CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF I64. HOWEVER..STILL
EXPECT ADDNTL CONVECTION TO DVLP OVR THE MTS THEN MERGE WITH THE
ADVANCING S/W ENERGY. SVR PTNTL STILL EXISTS IF TMPS ARE ABLE TO
RISE TO FCST LEVELS. STAY TUNED.

PVS DSCN:
MADE SOME CHANGES TO GRIDS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS SFC OBS
AND MODEL GUIDANCE. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ACCOUNT FOR LINE OF
CONVECTION MARCHING EAST ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT ATTM. HRRR SEEMS
TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON THE CRNT TRENDS...SO INCREASED POPS TO
LIKELY ACROSS SRN MOST COUNTIES NEXT SVRL HRS AS THIS LINE MOVES
EAST.. VSBY SAT LOOP SHOWING SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE AHEAD OF IT TO
KEEP THE LINE GOING.

LOWERED TMPS BY A CATEGORY MOST PLACES (CLOSER TO LAV GUID) GIVEN
ALL THE CLOUDS AND PCPN FROM THE MORNING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. TUFF
CALL FOR SERN COUNTIES AS TMPS MAY GET TO 90 THERE...BUT THEN DROP
IN ANY CONVECTION BY ERLY AFTRN.

MAIN QUESTION FOR THIS AFTRN IS HOW MUCH HEATING WILL OCCUR BEHIND
THE FIRST DEPARTING S/W AND AHEAD OF NXT APPRCHG S/W NOW OVR KY
VLLY. LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THIS COMPLEX TAKING A MORE SOUTHERLY
ROUTE (ACROSS SRN HALF OF VA / NC THIS EVENING.

SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE FA OUTLOOKED IN SLGHT RISK WITH A RECENTLY
ISSUED PWO FOR AREAS TO OUR WEST. STAY TUNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE STRONG COLD FRONT QUICKLY PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE FOCUSED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AND RE-FIRE IN INTENSITY DUE TO THE ADDED LIFT. OVERALL...
PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS UNTIL THE FRONT CAN
PUSH WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING.
ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS DIMINISHED ON
MONDAY...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
WEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH AS A COOLER
AND DRIER CANADIAN AIRMASS FILTERS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW-N.
WINDS AND SUNSHINE WILL BE KEY PLAYERS IN HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY.
CURRENT FORECAST RANGES FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO 90-95 SE.


BNDRY PROGGED TO STALL INVOF GULF STREAM MON NIGHT AND TUE WHILE A
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. KEPT SLGHT CHC
POPS ALONG SERN CSTL AREAS MON EVENING. LOWS IN THE 60S...XCPT L70S
SERN CSTL AREAS. DRY TUESDAY ALONG WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AS DEWPOINTS
DROP INTO THE 50S. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE L80S...U70S AT
THE BEACHES. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S W TO MID 60S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF DIGS OVR THE MID ATLC REGION TUE NGT
INTO EARLY THU...BEFORE RETROGRADING BACK INTO THE OH AND MS VALLEYS
THU AFTN THRU SAT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OFF THE MID ATLC
CST TUE NGT THRU FRI...THEN DRIFTS BACK TWD THE CST FRI NGT THRU
SAT. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR TUE NGT THRU FRI...THEN HAVE ADDED
SLGT CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT AND SAT. A MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL
DOMINATE THE AREA TUE NGT THRU THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LWR TO MID 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S
TO MID 60S WED AND THU MORNGS...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI
MORNG...AND RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AREA OF CONVECTION SLIDING SE FM SW PA/NRN WV/NW VA TO CONT
TRACKING ESE THROUGH EARLY MRNG HRS W/ SOME WEAKENING AS IT DOES
SO. PTNTL FOR PCPN AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...ESP KRIC-KSBY. A
SECOND AREA OF CONVECTION FCST TO EXIT THE MTNS MID/LT MRNG...AND
TRACK OVR THE RGN MIDDAY INTO THIS EVE (ALSO W/ PSBL BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS/HVY RA). OTRW...SSW WINDS GUSTING TO 15 KT AND SCT-BKN
CLDS XPCD TDA AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W.
THE FRONT IS XPCD TO CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY W/ LO PROB FOR
PCPN AND GUSTY MNLY W WNDS (TO 20 KT). MNLY VFR CONDS MON NGT INTO
WED.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES XPCD THRU MON. A CDFNT PUSHES APPROACHES THE MID ATLC
REGION TDA...THEN MOVE ACRS THE WTRS AND OFF THE CST LATE TNGT
THROUGH MON NGT. SSW WINDS 10 TO 20 KT THROUGH TNGT. WINDS WILL TURN
TO THE W DURING MON...THEN NW AND N MON NGT INTO TUE MRNG.
WAVES/SEAS LIKELY TO RISE A FOOT OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO INCRSD SPDS
AND DIRECTION CHG TO NNW (MON NGT INTO TUE). GENERALLY NNE WINDS
15 KT OR LESS EXPECTED FOR TUE THRU THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB






000
FXUS61 KPHI 271517
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1117 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR AREA TODAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY, BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO BIG CHANGES ARE PLANNED WITH THIS UPDATE. KPBZ MORNING SOUNDING
SHOWING WHY THERE IS A LULL IN ACTIVITY AT THE PRESENT MOMENT AS
THERE WAS A POCKET OF COOL AIR ADVECTION OVER PA AT 925MB AND
850MB. GENERAL UA ANALYSIS SHOWING A PAIR OF 700MB TROFS, ONE JUST
EAST OF THE SUSQ VALLEY AND THE OTHER IN THE CENTRAL OH VALLEY.
THIS ALSO COINCIDES WITH MUCH DRIER AIR AT 500MB AND THE EXIT
REGION OF THE APPROACHING 300/250MB JET. THIS IS THE REAL DEAL AS
THERE IS WAA WEST OF PBZ AT 925/850MB AS WELL AS PRESENTLY THE
BEST VALUES OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND ML CAPES ALREADY EXCEEDING
1000J.

LOCALLY THE WEST WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE HAVE
DROPPED DEW POINTS BACK DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S MOST
PLACES. CONVECTIVE TEMPS THOUGH ARE IN THE LOWER 80S NORTH, BUT
NEAR 90 DELMARVA. THE DELMARVA PBLM IS COMPLICATED BY DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS OVERHEAD AND TO THE WEST.

THUS THE WAITING GAME CONTINUES WITH THE HARDEST AND MOST LIKELY
IMPACT FOR OUR CWA DURING TONIGHT. THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE
POPPING SOME DISCRETE CELLS DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE ABOUT THE POCONOS THAN THE BLUE
RIDGE ATTM BECAUSE OF CLOUDS OVER THE LATTER. BUT THE AFTERNOON IS
LONG ENOUGH THAT NEITHER CAN BE DISCOUNTED. GIVEN THE PREDICTED
INCREASE IN BULK SHEAR, THESE TOO ARE CAPABLE OF BEING
STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS AND WE WILL KEEP ENHANCED WORDING IN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

GIVEN HOW QUICKLY TEMPERATURES ARE RESPONDING, WE ARE GOING TO UP
MAX TEMPS TO INCLUDE SOME 90S. BUT DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED AND
THIS KEEPS HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW ANY HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT, THE AFOREMENTIONED CDFNT WILL CROSS THE REGION.  THE
HIGHEST POPS THRU THIS WHOLE EVENT COULD END UP BEING TONIGHT FIRST
WITH TSTMS THEN WITH SOME SHWRS.  THERE ARE STILL TIMING ISSUES WRT
TO THE FRONT, BUT IT STILL WILL NOT HAVE CLEARED THE REGION BY
DAYBREAK MON.  THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF, WHICH IS NOT
SURPRISING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

IN THE MID LEVELS...A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES, WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH IT
DURING THE WEEK. THE TROUGH STARTS TO RETROGRADE AND WILL DEEPEN AS
IT SETTLES TO OUR WEST.

BY MONDAY MORNING, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WILL BE MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS LOW WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION DURING THE MORNING, CROSSING
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES INCHING UP TOWARDS 2 INCHES, THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT
PUSHES OFFSHORE, WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND
EVENTUALLY WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WHILE IT
APPEARS WE SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THIS WEEK WITH THE HIGH
BUILDING INTO OUR AREA, SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND MAY HELP TO
SPARK OFF SOME SHOWERS. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE
SHORTWAVES MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FROM DAY TO DAY.

AS THE TROUGH RETROGRADES, IT DEEPENS AND AS A RESULT, WE SHOULD
START TO HAVE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA. SHORTWAVES
WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE MID LEVEL FLOW AND AGAIN MAY AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK AND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

WITH THE DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH NEAR OUR AREA, OUR TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL OFF A BIT AND BE BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. AS THE TROUGH STARTS TO PUSH TO THE WEST, WE SHOULD START
TO SEE A MODERATION IN THE TEMPERATURES OCCUR FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A LOW CONFIDENCE AND COMPLICATED FCST DAY, BUT SHWRS AND TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL SITES LATER TODAY.  LATEST RADAR
ALREADY HAS SOME SCT SHWRS AROUND AS REMNANTS OF A SYS FROM THE
MIDWEST WEAKEN AND GENLY MOVE BY TO OUR SW.  THEN, A COMPLEX LOW
PRES SYS IN SERN CANADA AND ITS ASSOCD CDFNT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE
THRU TONIGHT INTO MON.  THIS FRONT WILL TRIGGER SHWRS AND TSRA.  ANY
OF THE OR TSRA THIS MRNG OR LATER COULD BRING REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS.

THE GUID SEEMS TO HAVE PUSHED BACK THE ONSET TIME WITH THE ACTIVITY
LATER THIS AFTN/EVE, SO HAVE TAKEN THAT APPROACH IN THE TAFS, SO
HAVE TRENDED IN THAT DIRECTION AND STILL COULD BE TOO FAST...OR NOT.

ONCE THE CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH, THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THE NIGHT UNTIL SOME IMPROVEMENT CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK OR BEYOND.

A GENL S WIND IS EXPECTED ERLY.  IT WILL BECOME MORE SWLY AND
INCREASE TO THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE DURG THE DAY. IT WILL DECREASE
AND BECOME LIGHT (OUTSIDE OF ANY TSRA) OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE WLY BY DAYBREAK AS THE FRONT MOVES THRU.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITHIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN DURING MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. SHOWERS EARLY...THEN CLEARING.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING, AROUND 5 KT OR LESS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY TO SWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA WATERS AND SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.  BY DAYBREAK MON, WE COULD BE VERY CLOSE TO
SCA CONDS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN WATERS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES ATTM.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...SEAS WILL BUILD IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT AND LOOK TO
BUILD NEAR 5 FEET WITH WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 20-25 KT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/MEOLA
MARINE...NIERENBERG/MEOLA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 271517
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1117 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR AREA TODAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY, BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO BIG CHANGES ARE PLANNED WITH THIS UPDATE. KPBZ MORNING SOUNDING
SHOWING WHY THERE IS A LULL IN ACTIVITY AT THE PRESENT MOMENT AS
THERE WAS A POCKET OF COOL AIR ADVECTION OVER PA AT 925MB AND
850MB. GENERAL UA ANALYSIS SHOWING A PAIR OF 700MB TROFS, ONE JUST
EAST OF THE SUSQ VALLEY AND THE OTHER IN THE CENTRAL OH VALLEY.
THIS ALSO COINCIDES WITH MUCH DRIER AIR AT 500MB AND THE EXIT
REGION OF THE APPROACHING 300/250MB JET. THIS IS THE REAL DEAL AS
THERE IS WAA WEST OF PBZ AT 925/850MB AS WELL AS PRESENTLY THE
BEST VALUES OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND ML CAPES ALREADY EXCEEDING
1000J.

LOCALLY THE WEST WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE HAVE
DROPPED DEW POINTS BACK DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S MOST
PLACES. CONVECTIVE TEMPS THOUGH ARE IN THE LOWER 80S NORTH, BUT
NEAR 90 DELMARVA. THE DELMARVA PBLM IS COMPLICATED BY DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS OVERHEAD AND TO THE WEST.

THUS THE WAITING GAME CONTINUES WITH THE HARDEST AND MOST LIKELY
IMPACT FOR OUR CWA DURING TONIGHT. THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE
POPPING SOME DISCRETE CELLS DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE ABOUT THE POCONOS THAN THE BLUE
RIDGE ATTM BECAUSE OF CLOUDS OVER THE LATTER. BUT THE AFTERNOON IS
LONG ENOUGH THAT NEITHER CAN BE DISCOUNTED. GIVEN THE PREDICTED
INCREASE IN BULK SHEAR, THESE TOO ARE CAPABLE OF BEING
STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS AND WE WILL KEEP ENHANCED WORDING IN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

GIVEN HOW QUICKLY TEMPERATURES ARE RESPONDING, WE ARE GOING TO UP
MAX TEMPS TO INCLUDE SOME 90S. BUT DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED AND
THIS KEEPS HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW ANY HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT, THE AFOREMENTIONED CDFNT WILL CROSS THE REGION.  THE
HIGHEST POPS THRU THIS WHOLE EVENT COULD END UP BEING TONIGHT FIRST
WITH TSTMS THEN WITH SOME SHWRS.  THERE ARE STILL TIMING ISSUES WRT
TO THE FRONT, BUT IT STILL WILL NOT HAVE CLEARED THE REGION BY
DAYBREAK MON.  THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF, WHICH IS NOT
SURPRISING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

IN THE MID LEVELS...A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES, WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH IT
DURING THE WEEK. THE TROUGH STARTS TO RETROGRADE AND WILL DEEPEN AS
IT SETTLES TO OUR WEST.

BY MONDAY MORNING, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WILL BE MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS LOW WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION DURING THE MORNING, CROSSING
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES INCHING UP TOWARDS 2 INCHES, THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT
PUSHES OFFSHORE, WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND
EVENTUALLY WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WHILE IT
APPEARS WE SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THIS WEEK WITH THE HIGH
BUILDING INTO OUR AREA, SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND MAY HELP TO
SPARK OFF SOME SHOWERS. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE
SHORTWAVES MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FROM DAY TO DAY.

AS THE TROUGH RETROGRADES, IT DEEPENS AND AS A RESULT, WE SHOULD
START TO HAVE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA. SHORTWAVES
WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE MID LEVEL FLOW AND AGAIN MAY AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK AND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

WITH THE DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH NEAR OUR AREA, OUR TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL OFF A BIT AND BE BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. AS THE TROUGH STARTS TO PUSH TO THE WEST, WE SHOULD START
TO SEE A MODERATION IN THE TEMPERATURES OCCUR FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A LOW CONFIDENCE AND COMPLICATED FCST DAY, BUT SHWRS AND TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL SITES LATER TODAY.  LATEST RADAR
ALREADY HAS SOME SCT SHWRS AROUND AS REMNANTS OF A SYS FROM THE
MIDWEST WEAKEN AND GENLY MOVE BY TO OUR SW.  THEN, A COMPLEX LOW
PRES SYS IN SERN CANADA AND ITS ASSOCD CDFNT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE
THRU TONIGHT INTO MON.  THIS FRONT WILL TRIGGER SHWRS AND TSRA.  ANY
OF THE OR TSRA THIS MRNG OR LATER COULD BRING REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS.

THE GUID SEEMS TO HAVE PUSHED BACK THE ONSET TIME WITH THE ACTIVITY
LATER THIS AFTN/EVE, SO HAVE TAKEN THAT APPROACH IN THE TAFS, SO
HAVE TRENDED IN THAT DIRECTION AND STILL COULD BE TOO FAST...OR NOT.

ONCE THE CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH, THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THE NIGHT UNTIL SOME IMPROVEMENT CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK OR BEYOND.

A GENL S WIND IS EXPECTED ERLY.  IT WILL BECOME MORE SWLY AND
INCREASE TO THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE DURG THE DAY. IT WILL DECREASE
AND BECOME LIGHT (OUTSIDE OF ANY TSRA) OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE WLY BY DAYBREAK AS THE FRONT MOVES THRU.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITHIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN DURING MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. SHOWERS EARLY...THEN CLEARING.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING, AROUND 5 KT OR LESS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY TO SWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA WATERS AND SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.  BY DAYBREAK MON, WE COULD BE VERY CLOSE TO
SCA CONDS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN WATERS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES ATTM.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...SEAS WILL BUILD IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT AND LOOK TO
BUILD NEAR 5 FEET WITH WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 20-25 KT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/MEOLA
MARINE...NIERENBERG/MEOLA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 271517
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1117 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR AREA TODAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY, BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO BIG CHANGES ARE PLANNED WITH THIS UPDATE. KPBZ MORNING SOUNDING
SHOWING WHY THERE IS A LULL IN ACTIVITY AT THE PRESENT MOMENT AS
THERE WAS A POCKET OF COOL AIR ADVECTION OVER PA AT 925MB AND
850MB. GENERAL UA ANALYSIS SHOWING A PAIR OF 700MB TROFS, ONE JUST
EAST OF THE SUSQ VALLEY AND THE OTHER IN THE CENTRAL OH VALLEY.
THIS ALSO COINCIDES WITH MUCH DRIER AIR AT 500MB AND THE EXIT
REGION OF THE APPROACHING 300/250MB JET. THIS IS THE REAL DEAL AS
THERE IS WAA WEST OF PBZ AT 925/850MB AS WELL AS PRESENTLY THE
BEST VALUES OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND ML CAPES ALREADY EXCEEDING
1000J.

LOCALLY THE WEST WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE HAVE
DROPPED DEW POINTS BACK DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S MOST
PLACES. CONVECTIVE TEMPS THOUGH ARE IN THE LOWER 80S NORTH, BUT
NEAR 90 DELMARVA. THE DELMARVA PBLM IS COMPLICATED BY DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS OVERHEAD AND TO THE WEST.

THUS THE WAITING GAME CONTINUES WITH THE HARDEST AND MOST LIKELY
IMPACT FOR OUR CWA DURING TONIGHT. THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE
POPPING SOME DISCRETE CELLS DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE ABOUT THE POCONOS THAN THE BLUE
RIDGE ATTM BECAUSE OF CLOUDS OVER THE LATTER. BUT THE AFTERNOON IS
LONG ENOUGH THAT NEITHER CAN BE DISCOUNTED. GIVEN THE PREDICTED
INCREASE IN BULK SHEAR, THESE TOO ARE CAPABLE OF BEING
STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS AND WE WILL KEEP ENHANCED WORDING IN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

GIVEN HOW QUICKLY TEMPERATURES ARE RESPONDING, WE ARE GOING TO UP
MAX TEMPS TO INCLUDE SOME 90S. BUT DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED AND
THIS KEEPS HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW ANY HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT, THE AFOREMENTIONED CDFNT WILL CROSS THE REGION.  THE
HIGHEST POPS THRU THIS WHOLE EVENT COULD END UP BEING TONIGHT FIRST
WITH TSTMS THEN WITH SOME SHWRS.  THERE ARE STILL TIMING ISSUES WRT
TO THE FRONT, BUT IT STILL WILL NOT HAVE CLEARED THE REGION BY
DAYBREAK MON.  THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF, WHICH IS NOT
SURPRISING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

IN THE MID LEVELS...A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES, WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH IT
DURING THE WEEK. THE TROUGH STARTS TO RETROGRADE AND WILL DEEPEN AS
IT SETTLES TO OUR WEST.

BY MONDAY MORNING, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WILL BE MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS LOW WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION DURING THE MORNING, CROSSING
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES INCHING UP TOWARDS 2 INCHES, THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT
PUSHES OFFSHORE, WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND
EVENTUALLY WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WHILE IT
APPEARS WE SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THIS WEEK WITH THE HIGH
BUILDING INTO OUR AREA, SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND MAY HELP TO
SPARK OFF SOME SHOWERS. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE
SHORTWAVES MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FROM DAY TO DAY.

AS THE TROUGH RETROGRADES, IT DEEPENS AND AS A RESULT, WE SHOULD
START TO HAVE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA. SHORTWAVES
WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE MID LEVEL FLOW AND AGAIN MAY AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK AND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

WITH THE DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH NEAR OUR AREA, OUR TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL OFF A BIT AND BE BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. AS THE TROUGH STARTS TO PUSH TO THE WEST, WE SHOULD START
TO SEE A MODERATION IN THE TEMPERATURES OCCUR FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A LOW CONFIDENCE AND COMPLICATED FCST DAY, BUT SHWRS AND TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL SITES LATER TODAY.  LATEST RADAR
ALREADY HAS SOME SCT SHWRS AROUND AS REMNANTS OF A SYS FROM THE
MIDWEST WEAKEN AND GENLY MOVE BY TO OUR SW.  THEN, A COMPLEX LOW
PRES SYS IN SERN CANADA AND ITS ASSOCD CDFNT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE
THRU TONIGHT INTO MON.  THIS FRONT WILL TRIGGER SHWRS AND TSRA.  ANY
OF THE OR TSRA THIS MRNG OR LATER COULD BRING REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS.

THE GUID SEEMS TO HAVE PUSHED BACK THE ONSET TIME WITH THE ACTIVITY
LATER THIS AFTN/EVE, SO HAVE TAKEN THAT APPROACH IN THE TAFS, SO
HAVE TRENDED IN THAT DIRECTION AND STILL COULD BE TOO FAST...OR NOT.

ONCE THE CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH, THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THE NIGHT UNTIL SOME IMPROVEMENT CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK OR BEYOND.

A GENL S WIND IS EXPECTED ERLY.  IT WILL BECOME MORE SWLY AND
INCREASE TO THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE DURG THE DAY. IT WILL DECREASE
AND BECOME LIGHT (OUTSIDE OF ANY TSRA) OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE WLY BY DAYBREAK AS THE FRONT MOVES THRU.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITHIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN DURING MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. SHOWERS EARLY...THEN CLEARING.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING, AROUND 5 KT OR LESS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY TO SWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA WATERS AND SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.  BY DAYBREAK MON, WE COULD BE VERY CLOSE TO
SCA CONDS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN WATERS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES ATTM.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...SEAS WILL BUILD IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT AND LOOK TO
BUILD NEAR 5 FEET WITH WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 20-25 KT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/MEOLA
MARINE...NIERENBERG/MEOLA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 271517
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1117 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR AREA TODAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY, BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO BIG CHANGES ARE PLANNED WITH THIS UPDATE. KPBZ MORNING SOUNDING
SHOWING WHY THERE IS A LULL IN ACTIVITY AT THE PRESENT MOMENT AS
THERE WAS A POCKET OF COOL AIR ADVECTION OVER PA AT 925MB AND
850MB. GENERAL UA ANALYSIS SHOWING A PAIR OF 700MB TROFS, ONE JUST
EAST OF THE SUSQ VALLEY AND THE OTHER IN THE CENTRAL OH VALLEY.
THIS ALSO COINCIDES WITH MUCH DRIER AIR AT 500MB AND THE EXIT
REGION OF THE APPROACHING 300/250MB JET. THIS IS THE REAL DEAL AS
THERE IS WAA WEST OF PBZ AT 925/850MB AS WELL AS PRESENTLY THE
BEST VALUES OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND ML CAPES ALREADY EXCEEDING
1000J.

LOCALLY THE WEST WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE HAVE
DROPPED DEW POINTS BACK DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S MOST
PLACES. CONVECTIVE TEMPS THOUGH ARE IN THE LOWER 80S NORTH, BUT
NEAR 90 DELMARVA. THE DELMARVA PBLM IS COMPLICATED BY DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS OVERHEAD AND TO THE WEST.

THUS THE WAITING GAME CONTINUES WITH THE HARDEST AND MOST LIKELY
IMPACT FOR OUR CWA DURING TONIGHT. THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE
POPPING SOME DISCRETE CELLS DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE ABOUT THE POCONOS THAN THE BLUE
RIDGE ATTM BECAUSE OF CLOUDS OVER THE LATTER. BUT THE AFTERNOON IS
LONG ENOUGH THAT NEITHER CAN BE DISCOUNTED. GIVEN THE PREDICTED
INCREASE IN BULK SHEAR, THESE TOO ARE CAPABLE OF BEING
STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS AND WE WILL KEEP ENHANCED WORDING IN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

GIVEN HOW QUICKLY TEMPERATURES ARE RESPONDING, WE ARE GOING TO UP
MAX TEMPS TO INCLUDE SOME 90S. BUT DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED AND
THIS KEEPS HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW ANY HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT, THE AFOREMENTIONED CDFNT WILL CROSS THE REGION.  THE
HIGHEST POPS THRU THIS WHOLE EVENT COULD END UP BEING TONIGHT FIRST
WITH TSTMS THEN WITH SOME SHWRS.  THERE ARE STILL TIMING ISSUES WRT
TO THE FRONT, BUT IT STILL WILL NOT HAVE CLEARED THE REGION BY
DAYBREAK MON.  THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF, WHICH IS NOT
SURPRISING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

IN THE MID LEVELS...A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES, WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH IT
DURING THE WEEK. THE TROUGH STARTS TO RETROGRADE AND WILL DEEPEN AS
IT SETTLES TO OUR WEST.

BY MONDAY MORNING, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WILL BE MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS LOW WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION DURING THE MORNING, CROSSING
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES INCHING UP TOWARDS 2 INCHES, THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT
PUSHES OFFSHORE, WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND
EVENTUALLY WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WHILE IT
APPEARS WE SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THIS WEEK WITH THE HIGH
BUILDING INTO OUR AREA, SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND MAY HELP TO
SPARK OFF SOME SHOWERS. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE
SHORTWAVES MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FROM DAY TO DAY.

AS THE TROUGH RETROGRADES, IT DEEPENS AND AS A RESULT, WE SHOULD
START TO HAVE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA. SHORTWAVES
WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE MID LEVEL FLOW AND AGAIN MAY AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK AND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

WITH THE DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH NEAR OUR AREA, OUR TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL OFF A BIT AND BE BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. AS THE TROUGH STARTS TO PUSH TO THE WEST, WE SHOULD START
TO SEE A MODERATION IN THE TEMPERATURES OCCUR FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A LOW CONFIDENCE AND COMPLICATED FCST DAY, BUT SHWRS AND TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL SITES LATER TODAY.  LATEST RADAR
ALREADY HAS SOME SCT SHWRS AROUND AS REMNANTS OF A SYS FROM THE
MIDWEST WEAKEN AND GENLY MOVE BY TO OUR SW.  THEN, A COMPLEX LOW
PRES SYS IN SERN CANADA AND ITS ASSOCD CDFNT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE
THRU TONIGHT INTO MON.  THIS FRONT WILL TRIGGER SHWRS AND TSRA.  ANY
OF THE OR TSRA THIS MRNG OR LATER COULD BRING REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS.

THE GUID SEEMS TO HAVE PUSHED BACK THE ONSET TIME WITH THE ACTIVITY
LATER THIS AFTN/EVE, SO HAVE TAKEN THAT APPROACH IN THE TAFS, SO
HAVE TRENDED IN THAT DIRECTION AND STILL COULD BE TOO FAST...OR NOT.

ONCE THE CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH, THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THE NIGHT UNTIL SOME IMPROVEMENT CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK OR BEYOND.

A GENL S WIND IS EXPECTED ERLY.  IT WILL BECOME MORE SWLY AND
INCREASE TO THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE DURG THE DAY. IT WILL DECREASE
AND BECOME LIGHT (OUTSIDE OF ANY TSRA) OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE WLY BY DAYBREAK AS THE FRONT MOVES THRU.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITHIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN DURING MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. SHOWERS EARLY...THEN CLEARING.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING, AROUND 5 KT OR LESS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY TO SWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA WATERS AND SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.  BY DAYBREAK MON, WE COULD BE VERY CLOSE TO
SCA CONDS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN WATERS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES ATTM.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...SEAS WILL BUILD IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT AND LOOK TO
BUILD NEAR 5 FEET WITH WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 20-25 KT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/MEOLA
MARINE...NIERENBERG/MEOLA







000
FXUS61 KLWX 271406
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1006 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.

AS OF 14Z...AN UPPER LEVEL DISBURBANCE HAS REACHED THE
APPALIACIANS IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SHOWERS ARE EXITING THE
NRN PIEDMONT AND SRN MD THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A DISTURBANCE
THAT CAME THROUGH THIS MORNING. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FIRST
DISTURBANCE HAS LED TO CLEARING ACROSS NRN MD AND THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS. ALTHOUGH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEGINING TO
STREAM INTO FROM THE NEXT DISTURBANCE...PATCHES OF CLEARING WILL
CONTINUE FROM WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE LEADING
TO DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE AREA. A LULL OF ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
THIS MORNING AS THE ATM BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE. PER THE 12Z IAD
RAOB...CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 2K-2.5K J/KG BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 0-6KM SHEAR OF 42KTS AND 0-1KM OF 17 KTS
ARE OBSERVED IN THE SOUNDING RAOB. THIS SHEAR PROFILE IS FAVORABLE
FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION TODAY AND WILL LIKELY INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS IN/OH/KY WILL MOVE EASTWARD WITH TIME. THESE
SHOWERS WILL HAVE A OVERALL SE-E TRACK AND REACH THE CENTRAL
FOOTHILLS BY MIDDAY. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY SOME AND THEREFORE CONVECTION SHOULD BE ISO-SCT AS IT
REACHES THE REGION. ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INTIATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FROM LAKE ERIE
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND BE STRONG. ANY
HEATING BOUNDARY OR OUTFLOW FROM DECAYING THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
LIKELY CAUSE THUNDERSTORM INTIATION ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON BUT
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THIS IS GOING TO BE THE TIME WHEN SEVERE WEATHER IS MOST
LIKELY...WHICH WOULD BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS AND THIS EVENING EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...KEEP IN MIND THAT SEVERE
STORMS OUT AHEAD OF THIS LINE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS ALL AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THE INSTABILITY...SHEAR PROFILES AND
LIFTING MECHANISMS SUCH AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...A SURFACE TROUGH
AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. IN FACT SUPERCELLS WITH SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF THE INGREDIENTS ALL COME
TOGETHER. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK LATER TONIGHT
WHILE THE POTENT COLD FRONT LIKELY JUMPS TO THE PRESSURE TROUGH OFF
TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY MORNING. THE DRY SLOT ALONG WITH COLD
ADVECTION SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS TO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 70S IN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT 24 HRS LOOK TO BE VERY ACTIVE WX WISE...WITH A DOWNWARD
TREND IN ACTIVITY EXPECTED THEREAFTER. CD FNT LOOKS TO BE MOVING
OFFSHORE MIDDAY MON...BRINGING AN END TO THE CNVCTV CHCS AND
USHERING IN THE COOLER AIR THAT WL END WHAT IS TYPICALLY THE
HOTTEST TIME IN THE HOTTEST MONTH OF THE YR (CLIMATOLOGICALLY
TEMPS BEGIN TO DROP IN EARLY AUG). BRZY CONDS AREA XPCTD MON AFTN.

AFTR THAT SVRL DAYS OF M CLR SKIES W/ COMFORTABLE TEMPS ARE XPCTD.
DWPTS IN THE 50S...HARD NOT TO ENJOY THAT IN JUL. HIGH TEMPS TUE-THU
SHOULD BE IN THE LM80S (COOLER IN THE MTNS) W/ LOWS IN THE MU50S.
(WARMER IN THE CITIES). NO REALLY HOT WX ON TAP FOR THE MID ATLC RGN.

AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED B4 THE PRIMARY REASON FOR THIS IS THE UPR
LVL WRN RDG/ERN TROF. DRY AND HOT IN THE W - NW ICC WEB SITE SHOWS
MULTIPLE WILDFIRES ONGOING IN OR/WA - W/ 2 IN WA BEING ESPECIALLY
LARGE. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO RMN IN PLACE UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT
WKND.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED TO MVFR/IFR
LEVELS BRIEFLY DURING TIMES OF CONVECTION.

CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF TO
OUR EAST.

CD FNT WL CROSS THE AREA MON MRNG. LINGERING SHOWERS/ANY LOWER CIGS
SHOULD IMPROVE BY AFTN THEN GUSTY NWRLY WINDS. THESE SHOULD
DIMINISH BY EVE. VFR CONDS MON NGT THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
IT WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS...BUT A
STRENGHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WIND FIELD SHOULD CAUSE GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LATE
TONIGHT ALONG THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO
SMITH POINT AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER FROM COBB ISLAND TO
SMITH POINT. ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL AND ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE. PLEASE PAY ATTENTION
TO THE LATEST FORECASTS REGARDING WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.

SCA IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS DURG THE DAY MON AS A CD FNT
MOVES OFFSHORE AND WNW WINDS STRENGTHEN. NO PROBS FORESEEN MON
NGT-MIDWK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS CAUSED TIDAL ANOMALIES BETWEEN ONE HALF AND ONE
FOOT ABOVE NORMAL EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ALONG THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC SHORE NEAR WASHINGTON DC. AT THIS
TIME...THE FLOW APPEARS THAT IT IS LIGHT ENOUGH FOR WATER LEVELS
TO REMAIN JUST BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS NEAR HIGH TIDE THIS
MORNING.

THE HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE LOWER OF THE TWO...SO NO
TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN OFFSHORE
LATE TONIGHT SO ANOMALIES SHOULD COME DOWN A BIT. THEREFORE...TIDAL
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ530-531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...HAS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...BJL/WOODY!








000
FXUS61 KLWX 271406
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1006 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.

AS OF 14Z...AN UPPER LEVEL DISBURBANCE HAS REACHED THE
APPALIACIANS IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SHOWERS ARE EXITING THE
NRN PIEDMONT AND SRN MD THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A DISTURBANCE
THAT CAME THROUGH THIS MORNING. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FIRST
DISTURBANCE HAS LED TO CLEARING ACROSS NRN MD AND THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS. ALTHOUGH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEGINING TO
STREAM INTO FROM THE NEXT DISTURBANCE...PATCHES OF CLEARING WILL
CONTINUE FROM WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE LEADING
TO DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE AREA. A LULL OF ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
THIS MORNING AS THE ATM BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE. PER THE 12Z IAD
RAOB...CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 2K-2.5K J/KG BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 0-6KM SHEAR OF 42KTS AND 0-1KM OF 17 KTS
ARE OBSERVED IN THE SOUNDING RAOB. THIS SHEAR PROFILE IS FAVORABLE
FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION TODAY AND WILL LIKELY INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS IN/OH/KY WILL MOVE EASTWARD WITH TIME. THESE
SHOWERS WILL HAVE A OVERALL SE-E TRACK AND REACH THE CENTRAL
FOOTHILLS BY MIDDAY. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY SOME AND THEREFORE CONVECTION SHOULD BE ISO-SCT AS IT
REACHES THE REGION. ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INTIATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FROM LAKE ERIE
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND BE STRONG. ANY
HEATING BOUNDARY OR OUTFLOW FROM DECAYING THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
LIKELY CAUSE THUNDERSTORM INTIATION ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON BUT
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THIS IS GOING TO BE THE TIME WHEN SEVERE WEATHER IS MOST
LIKELY...WHICH WOULD BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS AND THIS EVENING EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...KEEP IN MIND THAT SEVERE
STORMS OUT AHEAD OF THIS LINE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS ALL AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THE INSTABILITY...SHEAR PROFILES AND
LIFTING MECHANISMS SUCH AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...A SURFACE TROUGH
AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. IN FACT SUPERCELLS WITH SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF THE INGREDIENTS ALL COME
TOGETHER. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK LATER TONIGHT
WHILE THE POTENT COLD FRONT LIKELY JUMPS TO THE PRESSURE TROUGH OFF
TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY MORNING. THE DRY SLOT ALONG WITH COLD
ADVECTION SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS TO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 70S IN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT 24 HRS LOOK TO BE VERY ACTIVE WX WISE...WITH A DOWNWARD
TREND IN ACTIVITY EXPECTED THEREAFTER. CD FNT LOOKS TO BE MOVING
OFFSHORE MIDDAY MON...BRINGING AN END TO THE CNVCTV CHCS AND
USHERING IN THE COOLER AIR THAT WL END WHAT IS TYPICALLY THE
HOTTEST TIME IN THE HOTTEST MONTH OF THE YR (CLIMATOLOGICALLY
TEMPS BEGIN TO DROP IN EARLY AUG). BRZY CONDS AREA XPCTD MON AFTN.

AFTR THAT SVRL DAYS OF M CLR SKIES W/ COMFORTABLE TEMPS ARE XPCTD.
DWPTS IN THE 50S...HARD NOT TO ENJOY THAT IN JUL. HIGH TEMPS TUE-THU
SHOULD BE IN THE LM80S (COOLER IN THE MTNS) W/ LOWS IN THE MU50S.
(WARMER IN THE CITIES). NO REALLY HOT WX ON TAP FOR THE MID ATLC RGN.

AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED B4 THE PRIMARY REASON FOR THIS IS THE UPR
LVL WRN RDG/ERN TROF. DRY AND HOT IN THE W - NW ICC WEB SITE SHOWS
MULTIPLE WILDFIRES ONGOING IN OR/WA - W/ 2 IN WA BEING ESPECIALLY
LARGE. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO RMN IN PLACE UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT
WKND.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED TO MVFR/IFR
LEVELS BRIEFLY DURING TIMES OF CONVECTION.

CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF TO
OUR EAST.

CD FNT WL CROSS THE AREA MON MRNG. LINGERING SHOWERS/ANY LOWER CIGS
SHOULD IMPROVE BY AFTN THEN GUSTY NWRLY WINDS. THESE SHOULD
DIMINISH BY EVE. VFR CONDS MON NGT THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
IT WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS...BUT A
STRENGHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WIND FIELD SHOULD CAUSE GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LATE
TONIGHT ALONG THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO
SMITH POINT AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER FROM COBB ISLAND TO
SMITH POINT. ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL AND ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE. PLEASE PAY ATTENTION
TO THE LATEST FORECASTS REGARDING WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.

SCA IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS DURG THE DAY MON AS A CD FNT
MOVES OFFSHORE AND WNW WINDS STRENGTHEN. NO PROBS FORESEEN MON
NGT-MIDWK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS CAUSED TIDAL ANOMALIES BETWEEN ONE HALF AND ONE
FOOT ABOVE NORMAL EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ALONG THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC SHORE NEAR WASHINGTON DC. AT THIS
TIME...THE FLOW APPEARS THAT IT IS LIGHT ENOUGH FOR WATER LEVELS
TO REMAIN JUST BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS NEAR HIGH TIDE THIS
MORNING.

THE HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE LOWER OF THE TWO...SO NO
TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN OFFSHORE
LATE TONIGHT SO ANOMALIES SHOULD COME DOWN A BIT. THEREFORE...TIDAL
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ530-531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...HAS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...BJL/WOODY!







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271335
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
935 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON..THEN CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MADE SOME CHANGES TO GRIDS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS SFC OBS
AND MODEL GUIDANCE. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ACCOUNT FOR LINE OF
CONVECTION MARCHING EAST ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT ATTM. HRRR SEEMS
TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON THE CRNT TRENDS...SO INCREASED POPS TO
LIKELY ACROSS SRN MOST COUNTIES NEXT SVRL HRS AS THIS LINE MOVES
EAST.. VSBY SAT LOOP SHOWING SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE AHEAD OF IT TO
KEEP THE LINE GOING.

LOWERED TMPS BY A CATEGORY MOST PLACES (CLOSER TO LAV GUID) GIVEN
ALL THE CLOUDS AND PCPN FROM THE MORNING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. TUFF
CALL FOR SERN COUNTIES AS TMPS MAY GET TO 90 THERE...BUT THEN DROP
IN ANY CONVECTION BY ERLY AFTRN.

MAIN QUESTION FOR THIS AFTRN IS HOW MUCH HEATING WILL OCCUR BEHIND
THE FIRST DEPARTING S/W AND AHEAD OF NXT APPRCHG S/W NOW OVR KY
VLLY. LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THIS COMPLEX TAKING A MORE SOUTHERLY
ROUTE (ACROSS SRN HALF OF VA / NC THIS EVENING.

SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE FA OUTLOOKED IN SLGHT RISK WITH A RECENTLY
ISSUED PWO FOR AREAS TO OUR WEST. STAY TUNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE STRONG COLD FRONT QUICKLY PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE FOCUSED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AND RE-FIRE IN INTENSITY DUE TO THE ADDED LIFT. OVERALL...
PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS UNTIL THE FRONT CAN
PUSH WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING.
ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS DIMINISHED ON
MONDAY...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
WEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH AS A COOLER
AND DRIER CANADIAN AIRMASS FILTERS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW-N.
WINDS AND SUNSHINE WILL BE KEY PLAYERS IN HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY.
CURRENT FORECAST RANGES FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO 90-95 SE.


BNDRY PROGGED TO STALL INVOF GULF STREAM MON NIGHT AND TUE WHILE A
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. KEPT SLGHT CHC
POPS ALONG SERN CSTL AREAS MON EVENING. LOWS IN THE 60S...XCPT L70S
SERN CSTL AREAS. DRY TUESDAY ALONG WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AS DEWPOINTS
DROP INTO THE 50S. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE L80S...U70S AT
THE BEACHES. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S W TO MID 60S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF DIGS OVR THE MID ATLC REGION TUE NGT
INTO EARLY THU...BEFORE RETROGRADING BACK INTO THE OH AND MS VALLEYS
THU AFTN THRU SAT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OFF THE MID ATLC
CST TUE NGT THRU FRI...THEN DRIFTS BACK TWD THE CST FRI NGT THRU
SAT. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR TUE NGT THRU FRI...THEN HAVE ADDED
SLGT CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT AND SAT. A MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL
DOMINATE THE AREA TUE NGT THRU THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LWR TO MID 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S
TO MID 60S WED AND THU MORNGS...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI
MORNG...AND RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AREA OF CONVECTION SLIDING SE FM SW PA/NRN WV/NW VA TO CONT
TRACKING ESE THROUGH EARLY MRNG HRS W/ SOME WEAKENING AS IT DOES
SO. PTNTL FOR PCPN AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...ESP KRIC-KSBY. A
SECOND AREA OF CONVECTION FCST TO EXIT THE MTNS MID/LT MRNG...AND
TRACK OVR THE RGN MIDDAY INTO THIS EVE (ALSO W/ PSBL BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS/HVY RA). OTRW...SSW WINDS GUSTING TO 15 KT AND SCT-BKN
CLDS XPCD TDA AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W.
THE FRONT IS XPCD TO CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY W/ LO PROB FOR
PCPN AND GUSTY MNLY W WNDS (TO 20 KT). MNLY VFR CONDS MON NGT INTO
WED.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES XPCD THRU MON. A CDFNT PUSHES APPROACHES THE MID ATLC
REGION TDA...THEN MOVE ACRS THE WTRS AND OFF THE CST LATE TNGT
THROUGH MON NGT. SSW WINDS 10 TO 20 KT THROUGH TNGT. WINDS WILL TURN
TO THE W DURING MON...THEN NW AND N MON NGT INTO TUE MRNG.
WAVES/SEAS LIKELY TO RISE A FOOT OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO INCRSD SPDS
AND DIRECTION CHG TO NNW (MON NGT INTO TUE). GENERALLY NNE WINDS
15 KT OR LESS EXPECTED FOR TUE THRU THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271335
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
935 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON..THEN CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MADE SOME CHANGES TO GRIDS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS SFC OBS
AND MODEL GUIDANCE. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ACCOUNT FOR LINE OF
CONVECTION MARCHING EAST ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT ATTM. HRRR SEEMS
TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON THE CRNT TRENDS...SO INCREASED POPS TO
LIKELY ACROSS SRN MOST COUNTIES NEXT SVRL HRS AS THIS LINE MOVES
EAST.. VSBY SAT LOOP SHOWING SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE AHEAD OF IT TO
KEEP THE LINE GOING.

LOWERED TMPS BY A CATEGORY MOST PLACES (CLOSER TO LAV GUID) GIVEN
ALL THE CLOUDS AND PCPN FROM THE MORNING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. TUFF
CALL FOR SERN COUNTIES AS TMPS MAY GET TO 90 THERE...BUT THEN DROP
IN ANY CONVECTION BY ERLY AFTRN.

MAIN QUESTION FOR THIS AFTRN IS HOW MUCH HEATING WILL OCCUR BEHIND
THE FIRST DEPARTING S/W AND AHEAD OF NXT APPRCHG S/W NOW OVR KY
VLLY. LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THIS COMPLEX TAKING A MORE SOUTHERLY
ROUTE (ACROSS SRN HALF OF VA / NC THIS EVENING.

SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE FA OUTLOOKED IN SLGHT RISK WITH A RECENTLY
ISSUED PWO FOR AREAS TO OUR WEST. STAY TUNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE STRONG COLD FRONT QUICKLY PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE FOCUSED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AND RE-FIRE IN INTENSITY DUE TO THE ADDED LIFT. OVERALL...
PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS UNTIL THE FRONT CAN
PUSH WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING.
ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS DIMINISHED ON
MONDAY...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
WEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH AS A COOLER
AND DRIER CANADIAN AIRMASS FILTERS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW-N.
WINDS AND SUNSHINE WILL BE KEY PLAYERS IN HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY.
CURRENT FORECAST RANGES FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO 90-95 SE.


BNDRY PROGGED TO STALL INVOF GULF STREAM MON NIGHT AND TUE WHILE A
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. KEPT SLGHT CHC
POPS ALONG SERN CSTL AREAS MON EVENING. LOWS IN THE 60S...XCPT L70S
SERN CSTL AREAS. DRY TUESDAY ALONG WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AS DEWPOINTS
DROP INTO THE 50S. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE L80S...U70S AT
THE BEACHES. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S W TO MID 60S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF DIGS OVR THE MID ATLC REGION TUE NGT
INTO EARLY THU...BEFORE RETROGRADING BACK INTO THE OH AND MS VALLEYS
THU AFTN THRU SAT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OFF THE MID ATLC
CST TUE NGT THRU FRI...THEN DRIFTS BACK TWD THE CST FRI NGT THRU
SAT. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR TUE NGT THRU FRI...THEN HAVE ADDED
SLGT CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT AND SAT. A MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL
DOMINATE THE AREA TUE NGT THRU THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LWR TO MID 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S
TO MID 60S WED AND THU MORNGS...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI
MORNG...AND RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AREA OF CONVECTION SLIDING SE FM SW PA/NRN WV/NW VA TO CONT
TRACKING ESE THROUGH EARLY MRNG HRS W/ SOME WEAKENING AS IT DOES
SO. PTNTL FOR PCPN AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...ESP KRIC-KSBY. A
SECOND AREA OF CONVECTION FCST TO EXIT THE MTNS MID/LT MRNG...AND
TRACK OVR THE RGN MIDDAY INTO THIS EVE (ALSO W/ PSBL BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS/HVY RA). OTRW...SSW WINDS GUSTING TO 15 KT AND SCT-BKN
CLDS XPCD TDA AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W.
THE FRONT IS XPCD TO CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY W/ LO PROB FOR
PCPN AND GUSTY MNLY W WNDS (TO 20 KT). MNLY VFR CONDS MON NGT INTO
WED.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES XPCD THRU MON. A CDFNT PUSHES APPROACHES THE MID ATLC
REGION TDA...THEN MOVE ACRS THE WTRS AND OFF THE CST LATE TNGT
THROUGH MON NGT. SSW WINDS 10 TO 20 KT THROUGH TNGT. WINDS WILL TURN
TO THE W DURING MON...THEN NW AND N MON NGT INTO TUE MRNG.
WAVES/SEAS LIKELY TO RISE A FOOT OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO INCRSD SPDS
AND DIRECTION CHG TO NNW (MON NGT INTO TUE). GENERALLY NNE WINDS
15 KT OR LESS EXPECTED FOR TUE THRU THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB







000
FXUS61 KPHI 271325
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
925 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR AREA TODAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY, BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ESTF UPDATE BASED ON THE LATEST COUPLE OF MESOSCALE MODEL RUNS IS
TO DELAY THE ONSET OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION OF GREATEST CONCERN UNTIL
THIS EVENING IN OUR CWA. THAT BEING SAID WE LOWERED POPS FOR THE
REST OF THE TODAY PERIOD.

THERE ARE A BUNCH OF SHORT WAVES STACKED TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST OF OUR CWA THIS MORNING. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE THAT THE
MODELS HAVE OFFSHORE EAST OF DELMARVA IS FINE (OUR SMW STORMS), BUT
THEY FAILED TO FCST ANOTHER ONE OVER DELMARVA ITSELF AS PER LATEST
RAP. FARTHER TO THE WEST THE SHORT WAVES OVER WV AND NOSING INTO
SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA LOOK GOOD.

THE THETA E AXIS THOUGH IS SOUTH OF OUR CWA AND ONGOING CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LEAN MORE TOWARD
THE SOUTH, GENERALLY SOUTH OF OUR CWA.

IF WE LOOK TO OUR WEST, THERE IS MID LEVEL DRY AIR, EVEN AN EML IN
NW PA. PROBLEM WITH THIS IS THE TRIGGERING SHORT WAVES ARE STILL
IN NORTHERN INDIANA. SO THE BEST OF THE EML MAY OUTRUN THE
TRIGGER. REGARDLESS, MID LEVEL DRY AIR EXTENDS WWD TO CHICAGO AND
THE FCST CONVECTIVE TEMP OFF THE 12Z PBZ SOUNDING IS WELL WITHIN
REACH.

SO WHILE THE SOUTHERN SHORT WAVES SHOULD NUT NULL OUR CONVECTIVE
CHANCES, THE ORGANIZED TRIGGERS ARE STILL FAIRLY FAR TO THE WEST.

BECAUSE OF THE CLEARER SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON.  WE HAVE
UPPED MAX TEMPS AND THEN IT BECOMES A WAITING GAME FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. BECAUSE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE WITHIN REACH,
WE SHOULD GET SOME PRE ORGANIZATIONAL TSTMS POPPING AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AND THUS WE BRING BACK AND INCREASE POPS AS
THE AFTERNOON MOVES ALONG.

THE MDLS STILL HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENTS ON WHAT HAPPENS LATER TODAY,
BUT IF THERE IS ONE TREND THEY ALL SEEM TO BE SHOWING WITH THE
LATEST RUNS IS THAT THE CONVECTION/SHOWERS WILL BE LATER IN THE DAY
AND INTO THE NIGHT.  THIS MEANS THERE COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT BREAK
DURG THE DAY, AND THEN THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH SUNSHINE DO WE SEE.
HOW MUCH CLOUDS/DEBRIS IS LEFT OVER FROM THE MORNING ACTIVITY?

AN AREA OF LOW PRES ACRS SERN CANADA AND ANOTHER NEAR THE GRTLKS
WILL MOVE SEWD THROUGH TONIGHT.  THE CDFNT ASSOCD WITH THIS COMPLEX
AREA OF LOW PRES WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY AND CROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT.

EXPECT SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY, BUT THE MDLS
CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFICULTY WITH THE COVERAGE AND TIMING.  THERE IS
GOOD CAPE, OMEGA AND INSTABILITY, ITS JUST A QUESTION OF WHERE
AND IF IT ALL COMES TOGETHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT, THE AFOREMENTIONED CDFNT WILL CROSS THE REGION.  THE
HIGHEST POPS THRU THIS WHOLE EVENT COULD END UP BEING TONIGHT FIRST
WITH TSTMS THEN WITH SOME SHWRS.  THERE ARE STILL TIMING ISSUES WRT
TO THE FRONT, BUT IT STILL WILL NOT HAVE CLEARED THE REGION BY
DAYBREAK MON.  THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF, WHICH IS NOT
SURPRISING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

IN THE MID LEVELS...A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES, WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH IT
DURING THE WEEK. THE TROUGH STARTS TO RETROGRADE AND WILL DEEPEN AS
IT SETTLES TO OUR WEST.

BY MONDAY MORNING, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WILL BE MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS LOW WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION DURING THE MORNING, CROSSING
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES INCHING UP TOWARDS 2 INCHES, THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT
PUSHES OFFSHORE, WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND
EVENTUALLY WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WHILE IT
APPEARS WE SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THIS WEEK WITH THE HIGH
BUILDING INTO OUR AREA, SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND MAY HELP TO
SPARK OFF SOME SHOWERS. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE
SHORTWAVES MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FROM DAY TO DAY.

AS THE TROUGH RETROGRADES, IT DEEPENS AND AS A RESULT, WE SHOULD
START TO HAVE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA. SHORTWAVES
WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE MID LEVEL FLOW AND AGAIN MAY AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK AND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

WITH THE DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH NEAR OUR AREA, OUR TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL OFF A BIT AND BE BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. AS THE TROUGH STARTS TO PUSH TO THE WEST, WE SHOULD START
TO SEE A MODERATION IN THE TEMPERATURES OCCUR FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A LOW CONFIDENCE AND COMPLICATED FCST DAY, BUT SHWRS AND TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL SITES LATER TODAY.  LATEST RADAR
ALREADY HAS SOME SCT SHWRS AROUND AS REMNANTS OF A SYS FROM THE
MIDWEST WEAKEN AND GENLY MOVE BY TO OUR SW.  THEN, A COMPLEX LOW
PRES SYS IN SERN CANADA AND ITS ASSOCD CDFNT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE
THRU TONIGHT INTO MON.  THIS FRONT WILL TRIGGER SHWRS AND TSRA.  ANY
OF THE OR TSRA THIS MRNG OR LATER COULD BRING REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS.

THE GUID SEEMS TO HAVE PUSHED BACK THE ONSET TIME WITH THE ACTIVITY
LATER THIS AFTN/EVE, SO HAVE TAKEN THAT APPROACH IN THE TAFS, SO
HAVE TRENDED IN THAT DIRECTION AND STILL COULD BE TOO FAST...OR NOT.

ONCE THE CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH, THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THE NIGHT UNTIL SOME IMPROVEMENT CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK OR BEYOND.

A GENL S WIND IS EXPECTED ERLY.  IT WILL BECOME MORE SWLY AND
INCREASE TO THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE DURG THE DAY. IT WILL DECREASE
AND BECOME LIGHT (OUTSIDE OF ANY TSRA) OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE WLY BY DAYBREAK AS THE FRONT MOVES THRU.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITHIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN DURING MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. SHOWERS EARLY...THEN CLEARING.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING, AROUND 5 KT OR LESS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY TO SWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA WATERS AND SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.  BY DAYBREAK MON, WE COULD BE VERY CLOSE TO
SCA CONDS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN WATERS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES ATTM.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...SEAS WILL BUILD IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT AND LOOK TO
BUILD NEAR 5 FEET WITH WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 20-25 KT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/MEOLA
MARINE...NIERENBERG/MEOLA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 271325
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
925 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR AREA TODAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY, BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ESTF UPDATE BASED ON THE LATEST COUPLE OF MESOSCALE MODEL RUNS IS
TO DELAY THE ONSET OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION OF GREATEST CONCERN UNTIL
THIS EVENING IN OUR CWA. THAT BEING SAID WE LOWERED POPS FOR THE
REST OF THE TODAY PERIOD.

THERE ARE A BUNCH OF SHORT WAVES STACKED TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST OF OUR CWA THIS MORNING. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE THAT THE
MODELS HAVE OFFSHORE EAST OF DELMARVA IS FINE (OUR SMW STORMS), BUT
THEY FAILED TO FCST ANOTHER ONE OVER DELMARVA ITSELF AS PER LATEST
RAP. FARTHER TO THE WEST THE SHORT WAVES OVER WV AND NOSING INTO
SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA LOOK GOOD.

THE THETA E AXIS THOUGH IS SOUTH OF OUR CWA AND ONGOING CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LEAN MORE TOWARD
THE SOUTH, GENERALLY SOUTH OF OUR CWA.

IF WE LOOK TO OUR WEST, THERE IS MID LEVEL DRY AIR, EVEN AN EML IN
NW PA. PROBLEM WITH THIS IS THE TRIGGERING SHORT WAVES ARE STILL
IN NORTHERN INDIANA. SO THE BEST OF THE EML MAY OUTRUN THE
TRIGGER. REGARDLESS, MID LEVEL DRY AIR EXTENDS WWD TO CHICAGO AND
THE FCST CONVECTIVE TEMP OFF THE 12Z PBZ SOUNDING IS WELL WITHIN
REACH.

SO WHILE THE SOUTHERN SHORT WAVES SHOULD NUT NULL OUR CONVECTIVE
CHANCES, THE ORGANIZED TRIGGERS ARE STILL FAIRLY FAR TO THE WEST.

BECAUSE OF THE CLEARER SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON.  WE HAVE
UPPED MAX TEMPS AND THEN IT BECOMES A WAITING GAME FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. BECAUSE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE WITHIN REACH,
WE SHOULD GET SOME PRE ORGANIZATIONAL TSTMS POPPING AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AND THUS WE BRING BACK AND INCREASE POPS AS
THE AFTERNOON MOVES ALONG.

THE MDLS STILL HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENTS ON WHAT HAPPENS LATER TODAY,
BUT IF THERE IS ONE TREND THEY ALL SEEM TO BE SHOWING WITH THE
LATEST RUNS IS THAT THE CONVECTION/SHOWERS WILL BE LATER IN THE DAY
AND INTO THE NIGHT.  THIS MEANS THERE COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT BREAK
DURG THE DAY, AND THEN THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH SUNSHINE DO WE SEE.
HOW MUCH CLOUDS/DEBRIS IS LEFT OVER FROM THE MORNING ACTIVITY?

AN AREA OF LOW PRES ACRS SERN CANADA AND ANOTHER NEAR THE GRTLKS
WILL MOVE SEWD THROUGH TONIGHT.  THE CDFNT ASSOCD WITH THIS COMPLEX
AREA OF LOW PRES WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY AND CROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT.

EXPECT SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY, BUT THE MDLS
CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFICULTY WITH THE COVERAGE AND TIMING.  THERE IS
GOOD CAPE, OMEGA AND INSTABILITY, ITS JUST A QUESTION OF WHERE
AND IF IT ALL COMES TOGETHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT, THE AFOREMENTIONED CDFNT WILL CROSS THE REGION.  THE
HIGHEST POPS THRU THIS WHOLE EVENT COULD END UP BEING TONIGHT FIRST
WITH TSTMS THEN WITH SOME SHWRS.  THERE ARE STILL TIMING ISSUES WRT
TO THE FRONT, BUT IT STILL WILL NOT HAVE CLEARED THE REGION BY
DAYBREAK MON.  THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF, WHICH IS NOT
SURPRISING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

IN THE MID LEVELS...A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES, WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH IT
DURING THE WEEK. THE TROUGH STARTS TO RETROGRADE AND WILL DEEPEN AS
IT SETTLES TO OUR WEST.

BY MONDAY MORNING, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WILL BE MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS LOW WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION DURING THE MORNING, CROSSING
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES INCHING UP TOWARDS 2 INCHES, THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT
PUSHES OFFSHORE, WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND
EVENTUALLY WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WHILE IT
APPEARS WE SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THIS WEEK WITH THE HIGH
BUILDING INTO OUR AREA, SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND MAY HELP TO
SPARK OFF SOME SHOWERS. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE
SHORTWAVES MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FROM DAY TO DAY.

AS THE TROUGH RETROGRADES, IT DEEPENS AND AS A RESULT, WE SHOULD
START TO HAVE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA. SHORTWAVES
WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE MID LEVEL FLOW AND AGAIN MAY AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK AND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

WITH THE DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH NEAR OUR AREA, OUR TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL OFF A BIT AND BE BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. AS THE TROUGH STARTS TO PUSH TO THE WEST, WE SHOULD START
TO SEE A MODERATION IN THE TEMPERATURES OCCUR FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A LOW CONFIDENCE AND COMPLICATED FCST DAY, BUT SHWRS AND TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL SITES LATER TODAY.  LATEST RADAR
ALREADY HAS SOME SCT SHWRS AROUND AS REMNANTS OF A SYS FROM THE
MIDWEST WEAKEN AND GENLY MOVE BY TO OUR SW.  THEN, A COMPLEX LOW
PRES SYS IN SERN CANADA AND ITS ASSOCD CDFNT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE
THRU TONIGHT INTO MON.  THIS FRONT WILL TRIGGER SHWRS AND TSRA.  ANY
OF THE OR TSRA THIS MRNG OR LATER COULD BRING REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS.

THE GUID SEEMS TO HAVE PUSHED BACK THE ONSET TIME WITH THE ACTIVITY
LATER THIS AFTN/EVE, SO HAVE TAKEN THAT APPROACH IN THE TAFS, SO
HAVE TRENDED IN THAT DIRECTION AND STILL COULD BE TOO FAST...OR NOT.

ONCE THE CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH, THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THE NIGHT UNTIL SOME IMPROVEMENT CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK OR BEYOND.

A GENL S WIND IS EXPECTED ERLY.  IT WILL BECOME MORE SWLY AND
INCREASE TO THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE DURG THE DAY. IT WILL DECREASE
AND BECOME LIGHT (OUTSIDE OF ANY TSRA) OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE WLY BY DAYBREAK AS THE FRONT MOVES THRU.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITHIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN DURING MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. SHOWERS EARLY...THEN CLEARING.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING, AROUND 5 KT OR LESS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY TO SWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA WATERS AND SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.  BY DAYBREAK MON, WE COULD BE VERY CLOSE TO
SCA CONDS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN WATERS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES ATTM.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...SEAS WILL BUILD IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT AND LOOK TO
BUILD NEAR 5 FEET WITH WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 20-25 KT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/MEOLA
MARINE...NIERENBERG/MEOLA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 271325
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
925 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR AREA TODAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY, BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ESTF UPDATE BASED ON THE LATEST COUPLE OF MESOSCALE MODEL RUNS IS
TO DELAY THE ONSET OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION OF GREATEST CONCERN UNTIL
THIS EVENING IN OUR CWA. THAT BEING SAID WE LOWERED POPS FOR THE
REST OF THE TODAY PERIOD.

THERE ARE A BUNCH OF SHORT WAVES STACKED TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST OF OUR CWA THIS MORNING. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE THAT THE
MODELS HAVE OFFSHORE EAST OF DELMARVA IS FINE (OUR SMW STORMS), BUT
THEY FAILED TO FCST ANOTHER ONE OVER DELMARVA ITSELF AS PER LATEST
RAP. FARTHER TO THE WEST THE SHORT WAVES OVER WV AND NOSING INTO
SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA LOOK GOOD.

THE THETA E AXIS THOUGH IS SOUTH OF OUR CWA AND ONGOING CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LEAN MORE TOWARD
THE SOUTH, GENERALLY SOUTH OF OUR CWA.

IF WE LOOK TO OUR WEST, THERE IS MID LEVEL DRY AIR, EVEN AN EML IN
NW PA. PROBLEM WITH THIS IS THE TRIGGERING SHORT WAVES ARE STILL
IN NORTHERN INDIANA. SO THE BEST OF THE EML MAY OUTRUN THE
TRIGGER. REGARDLESS, MID LEVEL DRY AIR EXTENDS WWD TO CHICAGO AND
THE FCST CONVECTIVE TEMP OFF THE 12Z PBZ SOUNDING IS WELL WITHIN
REACH.

SO WHILE THE SOUTHERN SHORT WAVES SHOULD NUT NULL OUR CONVECTIVE
CHANCES, THE ORGANIZED TRIGGERS ARE STILL FAIRLY FAR TO THE WEST.

BECAUSE OF THE CLEARER SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON.  WE HAVE
UPPED MAX TEMPS AND THEN IT BECOMES A WAITING GAME FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. BECAUSE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE WITHIN REACH,
WE SHOULD GET SOME PRE ORGANIZATIONAL TSTMS POPPING AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AND THUS WE BRING BACK AND INCREASE POPS AS
THE AFTERNOON MOVES ALONG.

THE MDLS STILL HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENTS ON WHAT HAPPENS LATER TODAY,
BUT IF THERE IS ONE TREND THEY ALL SEEM TO BE SHOWING WITH THE
LATEST RUNS IS THAT THE CONVECTION/SHOWERS WILL BE LATER IN THE DAY
AND INTO THE NIGHT.  THIS MEANS THERE COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT BREAK
DURG THE DAY, AND THEN THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH SUNSHINE DO WE SEE.
HOW MUCH CLOUDS/DEBRIS IS LEFT OVER FROM THE MORNING ACTIVITY?

AN AREA OF LOW PRES ACRS SERN CANADA AND ANOTHER NEAR THE GRTLKS
WILL MOVE SEWD THROUGH TONIGHT.  THE CDFNT ASSOCD WITH THIS COMPLEX
AREA OF LOW PRES WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY AND CROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT.

EXPECT SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY, BUT THE MDLS
CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFICULTY WITH THE COVERAGE AND TIMING.  THERE IS
GOOD CAPE, OMEGA AND INSTABILITY, ITS JUST A QUESTION OF WHERE
AND IF IT ALL COMES TOGETHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT, THE AFOREMENTIONED CDFNT WILL CROSS THE REGION.  THE
HIGHEST POPS THRU THIS WHOLE EVENT COULD END UP BEING TONIGHT FIRST
WITH TSTMS THEN WITH SOME SHWRS.  THERE ARE STILL TIMING ISSUES WRT
TO THE FRONT, BUT IT STILL WILL NOT HAVE CLEARED THE REGION BY
DAYBREAK MON.  THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF, WHICH IS NOT
SURPRISING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

IN THE MID LEVELS...A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES, WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH IT
DURING THE WEEK. THE TROUGH STARTS TO RETROGRADE AND WILL DEEPEN AS
IT SETTLES TO OUR WEST.

BY MONDAY MORNING, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WILL BE MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS LOW WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION DURING THE MORNING, CROSSING
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES INCHING UP TOWARDS 2 INCHES, THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT
PUSHES OFFSHORE, WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND
EVENTUALLY WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WHILE IT
APPEARS WE SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THIS WEEK WITH THE HIGH
BUILDING INTO OUR AREA, SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND MAY HELP TO
SPARK OFF SOME SHOWERS. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE
SHORTWAVES MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FROM DAY TO DAY.

AS THE TROUGH RETROGRADES, IT DEEPENS AND AS A RESULT, WE SHOULD
START TO HAVE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA. SHORTWAVES
WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE MID LEVEL FLOW AND AGAIN MAY AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK AND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

WITH THE DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH NEAR OUR AREA, OUR TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL OFF A BIT AND BE BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. AS THE TROUGH STARTS TO PUSH TO THE WEST, WE SHOULD START
TO SEE A MODERATION IN THE TEMPERATURES OCCUR FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A LOW CONFIDENCE AND COMPLICATED FCST DAY, BUT SHWRS AND TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL SITES LATER TODAY.  LATEST RADAR
ALREADY HAS SOME SCT SHWRS AROUND AS REMNANTS OF A SYS FROM THE
MIDWEST WEAKEN AND GENLY MOVE BY TO OUR SW.  THEN, A COMPLEX LOW
PRES SYS IN SERN CANADA AND ITS ASSOCD CDFNT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE
THRU TONIGHT INTO MON.  THIS FRONT WILL TRIGGER SHWRS AND TSRA.  ANY
OF THE OR TSRA THIS MRNG OR LATER COULD BRING REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS.

THE GUID SEEMS TO HAVE PUSHED BACK THE ONSET TIME WITH THE ACTIVITY
LATER THIS AFTN/EVE, SO HAVE TAKEN THAT APPROACH IN THE TAFS, SO
HAVE TRENDED IN THAT DIRECTION AND STILL COULD BE TOO FAST...OR NOT.

ONCE THE CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH, THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THE NIGHT UNTIL SOME IMPROVEMENT CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK OR BEYOND.

A GENL S WIND IS EXPECTED ERLY.  IT WILL BECOME MORE SWLY AND
INCREASE TO THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE DURG THE DAY. IT WILL DECREASE
AND BECOME LIGHT (OUTSIDE OF ANY TSRA) OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE WLY BY DAYBREAK AS THE FRONT MOVES THRU.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITHIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN DURING MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. SHOWERS EARLY...THEN CLEARING.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING, AROUND 5 KT OR LESS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY TO SWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA WATERS AND SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.  BY DAYBREAK MON, WE COULD BE VERY CLOSE TO
SCA CONDS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN WATERS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES ATTM.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...SEAS WILL BUILD IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT AND LOOK TO
BUILD NEAR 5 FEET WITH WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 20-25 KT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/MEOLA
MARINE...NIERENBERG/MEOLA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 271325
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
925 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR AREA TODAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY, BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ESTF UPDATE BASED ON THE LATEST COUPLE OF MESOSCALE MODEL RUNS IS
TO DELAY THE ONSET OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION OF GREATEST CONCERN UNTIL
THIS EVENING IN OUR CWA. THAT BEING SAID WE LOWERED POPS FOR THE
REST OF THE TODAY PERIOD.

THERE ARE A BUNCH OF SHORT WAVES STACKED TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST OF OUR CWA THIS MORNING. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE THAT THE
MODELS HAVE OFFSHORE EAST OF DELMARVA IS FINE (OUR SMW STORMS), BUT
THEY FAILED TO FCST ANOTHER ONE OVER DELMARVA ITSELF AS PER LATEST
RAP. FARTHER TO THE WEST THE SHORT WAVES OVER WV AND NOSING INTO
SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA LOOK GOOD.

THE THETA E AXIS THOUGH IS SOUTH OF OUR CWA AND ONGOING CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LEAN MORE TOWARD
THE SOUTH, GENERALLY SOUTH OF OUR CWA.

IF WE LOOK TO OUR WEST, THERE IS MID LEVEL DRY AIR, EVEN AN EML IN
NW PA. PROBLEM WITH THIS IS THE TRIGGERING SHORT WAVES ARE STILL
IN NORTHERN INDIANA. SO THE BEST OF THE EML MAY OUTRUN THE
TRIGGER. REGARDLESS, MID LEVEL DRY AIR EXTENDS WWD TO CHICAGO AND
THE FCST CONVECTIVE TEMP OFF THE 12Z PBZ SOUNDING IS WELL WITHIN
REACH.

SO WHILE THE SOUTHERN SHORT WAVES SHOULD NUT NULL OUR CONVECTIVE
CHANCES, THE ORGANIZED TRIGGERS ARE STILL FAIRLY FAR TO THE WEST.

BECAUSE OF THE CLEARER SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON.  WE HAVE
UPPED MAX TEMPS AND THEN IT BECOMES A WAITING GAME FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. BECAUSE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE WITHIN REACH,
WE SHOULD GET SOME PRE ORGANIZATIONAL TSTMS POPPING AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AND THUS WE BRING BACK AND INCREASE POPS AS
THE AFTERNOON MOVES ALONG.

THE MDLS STILL HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENTS ON WHAT HAPPENS LATER TODAY,
BUT IF THERE IS ONE TREND THEY ALL SEEM TO BE SHOWING WITH THE
LATEST RUNS IS THAT THE CONVECTION/SHOWERS WILL BE LATER IN THE DAY
AND INTO THE NIGHT.  THIS MEANS THERE COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT BREAK
DURG THE DAY, AND THEN THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH SUNSHINE DO WE SEE.
HOW MUCH CLOUDS/DEBRIS IS LEFT OVER FROM THE MORNING ACTIVITY?

AN AREA OF LOW PRES ACRS SERN CANADA AND ANOTHER NEAR THE GRTLKS
WILL MOVE SEWD THROUGH TONIGHT.  THE CDFNT ASSOCD WITH THIS COMPLEX
AREA OF LOW PRES WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY AND CROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT.

EXPECT SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY, BUT THE MDLS
CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFICULTY WITH THE COVERAGE AND TIMING.  THERE IS
GOOD CAPE, OMEGA AND INSTABILITY, ITS JUST A QUESTION OF WHERE
AND IF IT ALL COMES TOGETHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT, THE AFOREMENTIONED CDFNT WILL CROSS THE REGION.  THE
HIGHEST POPS THRU THIS WHOLE EVENT COULD END UP BEING TONIGHT FIRST
WITH TSTMS THEN WITH SOME SHWRS.  THERE ARE STILL TIMING ISSUES WRT
TO THE FRONT, BUT IT STILL WILL NOT HAVE CLEARED THE REGION BY
DAYBREAK MON.  THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF, WHICH IS NOT
SURPRISING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

IN THE MID LEVELS...A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES, WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH IT
DURING THE WEEK. THE TROUGH STARTS TO RETROGRADE AND WILL DEEPEN AS
IT SETTLES TO OUR WEST.

BY MONDAY MORNING, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WILL BE MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS LOW WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION DURING THE MORNING, CROSSING
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES INCHING UP TOWARDS 2 INCHES, THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT
PUSHES OFFSHORE, WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND
EVENTUALLY WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WHILE IT
APPEARS WE SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THIS WEEK WITH THE HIGH
BUILDING INTO OUR AREA, SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND MAY HELP TO
SPARK OFF SOME SHOWERS. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE
SHORTWAVES MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FROM DAY TO DAY.

AS THE TROUGH RETROGRADES, IT DEEPENS AND AS A RESULT, WE SHOULD
START TO HAVE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA. SHORTWAVES
WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE MID LEVEL FLOW AND AGAIN MAY AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK AND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

WITH THE DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH NEAR OUR AREA, OUR TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL OFF A BIT AND BE BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. AS THE TROUGH STARTS TO PUSH TO THE WEST, WE SHOULD START
TO SEE A MODERATION IN THE TEMPERATURES OCCUR FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A LOW CONFIDENCE AND COMPLICATED FCST DAY, BUT SHWRS AND TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL SITES LATER TODAY.  LATEST RADAR
ALREADY HAS SOME SCT SHWRS AROUND AS REMNANTS OF A SYS FROM THE
MIDWEST WEAKEN AND GENLY MOVE BY TO OUR SW.  THEN, A COMPLEX LOW
PRES SYS IN SERN CANADA AND ITS ASSOCD CDFNT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE
THRU TONIGHT INTO MON.  THIS FRONT WILL TRIGGER SHWRS AND TSRA.  ANY
OF THE OR TSRA THIS MRNG OR LATER COULD BRING REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS.

THE GUID SEEMS TO HAVE PUSHED BACK THE ONSET TIME WITH THE ACTIVITY
LATER THIS AFTN/EVE, SO HAVE TAKEN THAT APPROACH IN THE TAFS, SO
HAVE TRENDED IN THAT DIRECTION AND STILL COULD BE TOO FAST...OR NOT.

ONCE THE CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH, THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THE NIGHT UNTIL SOME IMPROVEMENT CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK OR BEYOND.

A GENL S WIND IS EXPECTED ERLY.  IT WILL BECOME MORE SWLY AND
INCREASE TO THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE DURG THE DAY. IT WILL DECREASE
AND BECOME LIGHT (OUTSIDE OF ANY TSRA) OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE WLY BY DAYBREAK AS THE FRONT MOVES THRU.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITHIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN DURING MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. SHOWERS EARLY...THEN CLEARING.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING, AROUND 5 KT OR LESS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY TO SWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA WATERS AND SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.  BY DAYBREAK MON, WE COULD BE VERY CLOSE TO
SCA CONDS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN WATERS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES ATTM.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...SEAS WILL BUILD IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT AND LOOK TO
BUILD NEAR 5 FEET WITH WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 20-25 KT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/MEOLA
MARINE...NIERENBERG/MEOLA







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271252
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
852 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH THE RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER...WILL INCREASE TODAY. COOLER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID MRNG UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST FOR HOURLY TRENDS OF TEMPS
AND OVRALL HIGHS GIVEN BREAKS IN CLD COVER. THOSE READINGS LK TO
BE SUFFICIENT TO REACH SFC BASED CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS...WHICH CAN
ONLY AGGRAVATE THE SITUATION ILLUSTRATED BY THE ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER EVIDENT ON THIS MRNGS SOUNDING.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT TRENDS CONT TO FAVORITE A SEVERE EVENT FOR
THE REGION WITH EXPECTATIONS OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND...AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SWING IN BEHIND IT. STORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE EXITING TROUGH ON
MONDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY MONDAY AND WITH LOTS OF CLOUD
COVER...STORM THREAT SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED.

SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

TUESDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND
COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY. WARMER AIR AND THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXP STG TO SVR TSTMS TO DVLP THIS AFTN INTO ERLY EVE WITH ADVNG
LOW PRES. INCLUDED TEMPO TSTM MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR THE MOST
LIKELY TIMES AT EACH PORT. EXP MVFR TO REDEVELOP OVRNGT IN ST/SC.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY MON AS A CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271252
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
852 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH THE RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER...WILL INCREASE TODAY. COOLER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID MRNG UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST FOR HOURLY TRENDS OF TEMPS
AND OVRALL HIGHS GIVEN BREAKS IN CLD COVER. THOSE READINGS LK TO
BE SUFFICIENT TO REACH SFC BASED CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS...WHICH CAN
ONLY AGGRAVATE THE SITUATION ILLUSTRATED BY THE ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER EVIDENT ON THIS MRNGS SOUNDING.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT TRENDS CONT TO FAVORITE A SEVERE EVENT FOR
THE REGION WITH EXPECTATIONS OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND...AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SWING IN BEHIND IT. STORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE EXITING TROUGH ON
MONDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY MONDAY AND WITH LOTS OF CLOUD
COVER...STORM THREAT SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED.

SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

TUESDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND
COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY. WARMER AIR AND THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXP STG TO SVR TSTMS TO DVLP THIS AFTN INTO ERLY EVE WITH ADVNG
LOW PRES. INCLUDED TEMPO TSTM MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR THE MOST
LIKELY TIMES AT EACH PORT. EXP MVFR TO REDEVELOP OVRNGT IN ST/SC.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY MON AS A CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271155
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
755 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH THE RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER...WILL INCREASE TODAY. COOLER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR CHGS TO CLDS/POPS FOR THE ERLY MRNG UPDT BASED ON RADAR/STLT
TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISC...EXPECT A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY FOR MOST OF THE
MORNING HOURS. SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO RE-FIRE
ONCE THE NEXT MIDWEST SHORTWAVE REACHES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST MODEL DATA IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE SEVERE THREAT
AS PREVIOUS RUNS. ATMOSPHERE NOT QUITE AS BUOYANT AND SHEAR VALUES
HAVE ALSO DECREASED. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE SUNLIGHT...OR THE
LACK THERE OFF. MODELS ARE SHOWING A LOT OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN
THE LOWER AND MID-LEVELS LINGERING OVER THE REGION TODAY. WITH
WHAT MODELS ARE DETAILING...IF SEVERE WEATHER ERUPTS IT LIKELY
WILL NOT BE UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY...AND IT MAY BE CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF MY FORECAST AREA.

THIS IS A COMPLEX AND CONSTANTLY CHANGING SITUATION...DEPENDENT ON
MANY FACTORS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SWING IN BEHIND IT. STORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE EXITING TROUGH ON
MONDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY MONDAY AND WITH LOTS OF CLOUD
COVER...STORM THREAT SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED.

SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

TUESDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND
COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY. WARMER AIR AND THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR TO PTCHY IFR CONDS IN ST/SC THIS MRNG SHOULD GRDLY IMPROVE TO
VFR BY AFTN. EXP STG TO SVR TSTMS TO DVLP THIS AFTN INTO ERLY EVE
WITH ADVNG LOW PRES. INCLUDED TEMPO TSTM MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR
THE MOST LIKELY TIMES AT EACH PORT. EXP MVFR TO REDEVELOP OVRNGT
IN ST/SC.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY MON AS A CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271155
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
755 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH THE RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER...WILL INCREASE TODAY. COOLER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR CHGS TO CLDS/POPS FOR THE ERLY MRNG UPDT BASED ON RADAR/STLT
TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISC...EXPECT A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY FOR MOST OF THE
MORNING HOURS. SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO RE-FIRE
ONCE THE NEXT MIDWEST SHORTWAVE REACHES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST MODEL DATA IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE SEVERE THREAT
AS PREVIOUS RUNS. ATMOSPHERE NOT QUITE AS BUOYANT AND SHEAR VALUES
HAVE ALSO DECREASED. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE SUNLIGHT...OR THE
LACK THERE OFF. MODELS ARE SHOWING A LOT OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN
THE LOWER AND MID-LEVELS LINGERING OVER THE REGION TODAY. WITH
WHAT MODELS ARE DETAILING...IF SEVERE WEATHER ERUPTS IT LIKELY
WILL NOT BE UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY...AND IT MAY BE CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF MY FORECAST AREA.

THIS IS A COMPLEX AND CONSTANTLY CHANGING SITUATION...DEPENDENT ON
MANY FACTORS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SWING IN BEHIND IT. STORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE EXITING TROUGH ON
MONDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY MONDAY AND WITH LOTS OF CLOUD
COVER...STORM THREAT SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED.

SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

TUESDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND
COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY. WARMER AIR AND THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR TO PTCHY IFR CONDS IN ST/SC THIS MRNG SHOULD GRDLY IMPROVE TO
VFR BY AFTN. EXP STG TO SVR TSTMS TO DVLP THIS AFTN INTO ERLY EVE
WITH ADVNG LOW PRES. INCLUDED TEMPO TSTM MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR
THE MOST LIKELY TIMES AT EACH PORT. EXP MVFR TO REDEVELOP OVRNGT
IN ST/SC.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY MON AS A CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KLWX 271135
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
735 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY IS CANCELED.

A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE LOCATED IN THE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. ONE IS OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE ANOTHER ONE IS
TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC HAS USHERED IN MORE MOISTURE...CAUSING
INSTABILITY TO INCREASE. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED INSTABILITY
AND FORCING FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES HAS TRIGGERED SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT THE OTHER ONE IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OUR AREA
LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS OF NOW...IT APPEARS THAT ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LIMITED
DUE TO CLOUD COVER...MARGINAL PROFILES AND PRECIPITATION KEEPING
INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT LIMITED.

HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD AT
LEAST BE SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE...AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S...THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. NAM/GFS BUFKIT ARE INDICATING BETWEEN 1000
AND 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A
POTENT SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE UPPER-LEVEL AND LOWER-LEVEL FLOW
OVER OUR AREA...CAUSING SHEAR PROFILES TO BE HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO WEST VIRGINIA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SPREAD THROUGH OUR AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS IS GOING TO BE THE TIME WHEN
SEVERE WEATHER IS MOST LIKELY...WHICH WOULD BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS AND THIS
EVENING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...KEEP IN MIND
THAT SEVERE STORMS OUT AHEAD OF THIS LINE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS ALL
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THE INSTABILITY...SHEAR
PROFILES AND LIFTING MECHANISMS SUCH AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...A
SURFACE TROUGH AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IN FACT SUPERCELLS WITH SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF THE
INGREDIENTS ALL COME TOGETHER. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK LATER TONIGHT
WHILE THE POTENT COLD FRONT LIKELY JUMPS TO THE PRESSURE TROUGH OFF
TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY MORNING. THE DRY SLOT ALONG WITH COLD
ADVECTION SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS TO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 70S IN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT 24 HRS LOOK TO BE VERY ACTIVE WX WISE...WITH A DOWNWARD
TREND IN ACTIVITY EXPECTED THEREAFTER. CD FNT LOOKS TO BE MOVING
OFFSHORE MIDDAY MON...BRINGING AN END TO THE CNVCTV CHCS AND
USHERING IN THE COOLER AIR THAT WL END WHAT IS TYPICALLY THE
HOTTEST TIME IN THE HOTTEST MONTH OF THE YR (CLIMATOLOGICALLY
TEMPS BEGIN TO DROP IN EARLY AUG). BRZY CONDS AREA XPCTD MON AFTN.

AFTR THAT SVRL DAYS OF M CLR SKIES W/ COMFORTABLE TEMPS ARE XPCTD.
DWPTS IN THE 50S...HARD NOT TO ENJOY THAT IN JUL. HIGH TEMPS TUE-THU
SHOULD BE IN THE LM80S (COOLER IN THE MTNS) W/ LOWS IN THE MU50S.
(WARMER IN THE CITIES). NO REALLY HOT WX ON TAP FOR THE MID ATLC RGN.

AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED B4 THE PRIMARY REASON FOR THIS IS THE UPR
LVL WRN RDG/ERN TROF. DRY AND HOT IN THE W - NW ICC WEB SITE SHOWS
MULTIPLE WILDFIRES ONGOING IN OR/WA - W/ 2 IN WA BEING ESPECIALLY
LARGE. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO RMN IN PLACE UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT
WKND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED TO MVFR/IFR
LEVELS BRIEFLY DURING TIMES OF CONVECTION.

CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF TO
OUR EAST.

CD FNT WL CROSS THE AREA MON MRNG. LINGERING SHOWERS/ANY LOWER CIGS
SHOULD IMPROVE BY AFTN THEN GUSTY NWRLY WINDS. THESE SHOULD
DIMINISH BY EVE. VFR CONDS MON NGT THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
IT WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS...BUT A
STRENGHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WIND FIELD SHOULD CAUSE GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LATE
TONIGHT ALONG THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO
SMITH POINT AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER FROM COBB ISLAND TO
SMITH POINT. ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL AND ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE. PLEASE PAY ATTENTION
TO THE LATEST FORECASTS REGARDING WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.

SCA IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS DURG THE DAY MON AS A CD FNT
MOVES OFFSHORE AND WNW WINDS STRENGTHEN. NO PROBS FORESEEN MON
NGT-MIDWK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS CAUSED TIDAL ANOMALIES BETWEEN ONE HALF AND ONE
FOOT ABOVE NORMAL EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ALONG THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC SHORE NEAR WASHINGTON DC. AT THIS
TIME...THE FLOW APPEARS THAT IT IS LIGHT ENOUGH FOR WATER LEVELS
TO REMAIN JUST BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS NEAR HIGH TIDE THIS
MORNING.

THE HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE LOWER OF THE TWO...SO NO
TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN OFFSHORE
LATE TONIGHT SO ANOMALIES SHOULD COME DOWN A BIT. THEREFORE...TIDAL
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ530-531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...HAS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BJL/WOODY!







000
FXUS61 KLWX 271135
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
735 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY IS CANCELED.

A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE LOCATED IN THE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. ONE IS OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE ANOTHER ONE IS
TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC HAS USHERED IN MORE MOISTURE...CAUSING
INSTABILITY TO INCREASE. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED INSTABILITY
AND FORCING FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES HAS TRIGGERED SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT THE OTHER ONE IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OUR AREA
LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS OF NOW...IT APPEARS THAT ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LIMITED
DUE TO CLOUD COVER...MARGINAL PROFILES AND PRECIPITATION KEEPING
INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT LIMITED.

HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD AT
LEAST BE SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE...AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S...THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. NAM/GFS BUFKIT ARE INDICATING BETWEEN 1000
AND 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A
POTENT SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE UPPER-LEVEL AND LOWER-LEVEL FLOW
OVER OUR AREA...CAUSING SHEAR PROFILES TO BE HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO WEST VIRGINIA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SPREAD THROUGH OUR AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS IS GOING TO BE THE TIME WHEN
SEVERE WEATHER IS MOST LIKELY...WHICH WOULD BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS AND THIS
EVENING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...KEEP IN MIND
THAT SEVERE STORMS OUT AHEAD OF THIS LINE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS ALL
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THE INSTABILITY...SHEAR
PROFILES AND LIFTING MECHANISMS SUCH AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...A
SURFACE TROUGH AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IN FACT SUPERCELLS WITH SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF THE
INGREDIENTS ALL COME TOGETHER. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK LATER TONIGHT
WHILE THE POTENT COLD FRONT LIKELY JUMPS TO THE PRESSURE TROUGH OFF
TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY MORNING. THE DRY SLOT ALONG WITH COLD
ADVECTION SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS TO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 70S IN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT 24 HRS LOOK TO BE VERY ACTIVE WX WISE...WITH A DOWNWARD
TREND IN ACTIVITY EXPECTED THEREAFTER. CD FNT LOOKS TO BE MOVING
OFFSHORE MIDDAY MON...BRINGING AN END TO THE CNVCTV CHCS AND
USHERING IN THE COOLER AIR THAT WL END WHAT IS TYPICALLY THE
HOTTEST TIME IN THE HOTTEST MONTH OF THE YR (CLIMATOLOGICALLY
TEMPS BEGIN TO DROP IN EARLY AUG). BRZY CONDS AREA XPCTD MON AFTN.

AFTR THAT SVRL DAYS OF M CLR SKIES W/ COMFORTABLE TEMPS ARE XPCTD.
DWPTS IN THE 50S...HARD NOT TO ENJOY THAT IN JUL. HIGH TEMPS TUE-THU
SHOULD BE IN THE LM80S (COOLER IN THE MTNS) W/ LOWS IN THE MU50S.
(WARMER IN THE CITIES). NO REALLY HOT WX ON TAP FOR THE MID ATLC RGN.

AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED B4 THE PRIMARY REASON FOR THIS IS THE UPR
LVL WRN RDG/ERN TROF. DRY AND HOT IN THE W - NW ICC WEB SITE SHOWS
MULTIPLE WILDFIRES ONGOING IN OR/WA - W/ 2 IN WA BEING ESPECIALLY
LARGE. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO RMN IN PLACE UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT
WKND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED TO MVFR/IFR
LEVELS BRIEFLY DURING TIMES OF CONVECTION.

CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF TO
OUR EAST.

CD FNT WL CROSS THE AREA MON MRNG. LINGERING SHOWERS/ANY LOWER CIGS
SHOULD IMPROVE BY AFTN THEN GUSTY NWRLY WINDS. THESE SHOULD
DIMINISH BY EVE. VFR CONDS MON NGT THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
IT WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS...BUT A
STRENGHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WIND FIELD SHOULD CAUSE GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LATE
TONIGHT ALONG THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO
SMITH POINT AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER FROM COBB ISLAND TO
SMITH POINT. ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL AND ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE. PLEASE PAY ATTENTION
TO THE LATEST FORECASTS REGARDING WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.

SCA IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS DURG THE DAY MON AS A CD FNT
MOVES OFFSHORE AND WNW WINDS STRENGTHEN. NO PROBS FORESEEN MON
NGT-MIDWK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS CAUSED TIDAL ANOMALIES BETWEEN ONE HALF AND ONE
FOOT ABOVE NORMAL EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ALONG THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC SHORE NEAR WASHINGTON DC. AT THIS
TIME...THE FLOW APPEARS THAT IT IS LIGHT ENOUGH FOR WATER LEVELS
TO REMAIN JUST BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS NEAR HIGH TIDE THIS
MORNING.

THE HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE LOWER OF THE TWO...SO NO
TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN OFFSHORE
LATE TONIGHT SO ANOMALIES SHOULD COME DOWN A BIT. THEREFORE...TIDAL
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ530-531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...HAS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BJL/WOODY!








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271038
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
638 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH THE RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER...WILL INCREASE TODAY. COOLER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXPECT A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY FOR MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS.
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO RE-FIRE ONCE THE NEXT
MIDWEST SHORTWAVE REACHES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST MODEL DATA IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE SEVERE THREAT
AS PREVIOUS RUNS. ATMOSPHERE NOT QUITE AS BUOYANT AND SHEAR VALUES
HAVE ALSO DECREASED. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE SUNLIGHT...OR THE
LACK THERE OFF. MODELS ARE SHOWING A LOT OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN
THE LOWER AND MID-LEVELS LINGERING OVER THE REGION TODAY. WITH
WHAT MODELS ARE DETAILING...IF SEVERE WEATHER ERUPTS IT LIKELY
WILL NOT BE UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY...AND IT MAY BE CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF MY FORECAST AREA.

THIS IS A COMPLEX AND CONSTANTLY CHANGING SITUATION...DEPENDENT ON
MANY FACTORS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SWING IN BEHIND IT. STORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE EXITING TROUGH ON
MONDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY MONDAY AND WITH LOTS OF CLOUD
COVER...STORM THREAT SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED.

SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

TUESDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND
COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY. WARMER AIR AND THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
QUITE A CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY. CONVECTION IS REDEVELOPING
WELL TO THE WEST IN INDIANA/KENTUCKY AND CONTINUES TO SHOW ESE
MOVEMENT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOST LIKELY MISS MOST OF THE
TERMINALS. HOWEVER...LINGERING OUTFLOW AND THE APPROACH OF A
SURFACE LOW PLUS AN UPPER TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR REDEVELOPMENT
LATER TODAY. AFTER SOME LINGERING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE
TAF PERIOD...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO ACHIEVE VFR FOR A TIME LATER
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. TRIED TO INSERT TIMING FOR
CONVECTION VIA TEMPO GROUPS...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED SOMETIME
BETWEEN 19Z AND 01Z. THIS REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
CONVECTION SHOULD QUIET DOWN/MOVE OUT BY MIDNIGHT WITH LINGERING
MVFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY THRU MON AS A CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271038
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
638 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH THE RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER...WILL INCREASE TODAY. COOLER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXPECT A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY FOR MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS.
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO RE-FIRE ONCE THE NEXT
MIDWEST SHORTWAVE REACHES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST MODEL DATA IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE SEVERE THREAT
AS PREVIOUS RUNS. ATMOSPHERE NOT QUITE AS BUOYANT AND SHEAR VALUES
HAVE ALSO DECREASED. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE SUNLIGHT...OR THE
LACK THERE OFF. MODELS ARE SHOWING A LOT OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN
THE LOWER AND MID-LEVELS LINGERING OVER THE REGION TODAY. WITH
WHAT MODELS ARE DETAILING...IF SEVERE WEATHER ERUPTS IT LIKELY
WILL NOT BE UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY...AND IT MAY BE CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF MY FORECAST AREA.

THIS IS A COMPLEX AND CONSTANTLY CHANGING SITUATION...DEPENDENT ON
MANY FACTORS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SWING IN BEHIND IT. STORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE EXITING TROUGH ON
MONDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY MONDAY AND WITH LOTS OF CLOUD
COVER...STORM THREAT SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED.

SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

TUESDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND
COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY. WARMER AIR AND THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
QUITE A CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY. CONVECTION IS REDEVELOPING
WELL TO THE WEST IN INDIANA/KENTUCKY AND CONTINUES TO SHOW ESE
MOVEMENT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOST LIKELY MISS MOST OF THE
TERMINALS. HOWEVER...LINGERING OUTFLOW AND THE APPROACH OF A
SURFACE LOW PLUS AN UPPER TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR REDEVELOPMENT
LATER TODAY. AFTER SOME LINGERING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE
TAF PERIOD...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO ACHIEVE VFR FOR A TIME LATER
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. TRIED TO INSERT TIMING FOR
CONVECTION VIA TEMPO GROUPS...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED SOMETIME
BETWEEN 19Z AND 01Z. THIS REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
CONVECTION SHOULD QUIET DOWN/MOVE OUT BY MIDNIGHT WITH LINGERING
MVFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY THRU MON AS A CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271038
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
638 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH THE RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER...WILL INCREASE TODAY. COOLER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXPECT A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY FOR MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS.
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO RE-FIRE ONCE THE NEXT
MIDWEST SHORTWAVE REACHES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST MODEL DATA IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE SEVERE THREAT
AS PREVIOUS RUNS. ATMOSPHERE NOT QUITE AS BUOYANT AND SHEAR VALUES
HAVE ALSO DECREASED. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE SUNLIGHT...OR THE
LACK THERE OFF. MODELS ARE SHOWING A LOT OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN
THE LOWER AND MID-LEVELS LINGERING OVER THE REGION TODAY. WITH
WHAT MODELS ARE DETAILING...IF SEVERE WEATHER ERUPTS IT LIKELY
WILL NOT BE UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY...AND IT MAY BE CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF MY FORECAST AREA.

THIS IS A COMPLEX AND CONSTANTLY CHANGING SITUATION...DEPENDENT ON
MANY FACTORS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SWING IN BEHIND IT. STORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE EXITING TROUGH ON
MONDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY MONDAY AND WITH LOTS OF CLOUD
COVER...STORM THREAT SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED.

SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

TUESDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND
COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY. WARMER AIR AND THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
QUITE A CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY. CONVECTION IS REDEVELOPING
WELL TO THE WEST IN INDIANA/KENTUCKY AND CONTINUES TO SHOW ESE
MOVEMENT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOST LIKELY MISS MOST OF THE
TERMINALS. HOWEVER...LINGERING OUTFLOW AND THE APPROACH OF A
SURFACE LOW PLUS AN UPPER TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR REDEVELOPMENT
LATER TODAY. AFTER SOME LINGERING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE
TAF PERIOD...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO ACHIEVE VFR FOR A TIME LATER
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. TRIED TO INSERT TIMING FOR
CONVECTION VIA TEMPO GROUPS...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED SOMETIME
BETWEEN 19Z AND 01Z. THIS REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
CONVECTION SHOULD QUIET DOWN/MOVE OUT BY MIDNIGHT WITH LINGERING
MVFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY THRU MON AS A CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271038
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
638 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH THE RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER...WILL INCREASE TODAY. COOLER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXPECT A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY FOR MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS.
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO RE-FIRE ONCE THE NEXT
MIDWEST SHORTWAVE REACHES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST MODEL DATA IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE SEVERE THREAT
AS PREVIOUS RUNS. ATMOSPHERE NOT QUITE AS BUOYANT AND SHEAR VALUES
HAVE ALSO DECREASED. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE SUNLIGHT...OR THE
LACK THERE OFF. MODELS ARE SHOWING A LOT OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN
THE LOWER AND MID-LEVELS LINGERING OVER THE REGION TODAY. WITH
WHAT MODELS ARE DETAILING...IF SEVERE WEATHER ERUPTS IT LIKELY
WILL NOT BE UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY...AND IT MAY BE CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF MY FORECAST AREA.

THIS IS A COMPLEX AND CONSTANTLY CHANGING SITUATION...DEPENDENT ON
MANY FACTORS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SWING IN BEHIND IT. STORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE EXITING TROUGH ON
MONDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY MONDAY AND WITH LOTS OF CLOUD
COVER...STORM THREAT SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED.

SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

TUESDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND
COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY. WARMER AIR AND THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
QUITE A CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY. CONVECTION IS REDEVELOPING
WELL TO THE WEST IN INDIANA/KENTUCKY AND CONTINUES TO SHOW ESE
MOVEMENT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOST LIKELY MISS MOST OF THE
TERMINALS. HOWEVER...LINGERING OUTFLOW AND THE APPROACH OF A
SURFACE LOW PLUS AN UPPER TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR REDEVELOPMENT
LATER TODAY. AFTER SOME LINGERING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE
TAF PERIOD...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO ACHIEVE VFR FOR A TIME LATER
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. TRIED TO INSERT TIMING FOR
CONVECTION VIA TEMPO GROUPS...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED SOMETIME
BETWEEN 19Z AND 01Z. THIS REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
CONVECTION SHOULD QUIET DOWN/MOVE OUT BY MIDNIGHT WITH LINGERING
MVFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY THRU MON AS A CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KLWX 270916 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
516 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE LOCATED IN THE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. ONE IS OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE ANOTHER ONE IS
TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC HAS USHERED IN MORE MOISTURE...CAUSING
INSTABILITY TO INCREASE. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED INSTABILITY
AND FORCING FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES HAS TRIGGERED SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT THE OTHER ONE IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OUR AREA
LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS OF NOW...IT APPEARS THAT ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LIMITED
DUE TO CLOUD COVER...MARGINAL PROFILES AND PRECIPITATION KEEPING
INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT LIMITED.

HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD AT
LEAST BE SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE...AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S...THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. NAM/GFS BUFKIT ARE INDICATING BETWEEN 1000
AND 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A
POTENT SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE UPPER-LEVEL AND LOWER-LEVEL FLOW
OVER OUR AREA...CAUSING SHEAR PROFILES TO BE HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO WEST VIRGINIA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SPREAD THROUGH OUR AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS IS GOING TO BE THE TIME WHEN
SEVERE WEATHER IS MOST LIKELY...WHICH WOULD BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS AND THIS
EVENING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...KEEP IN MIND
THAT SEVERE STORMS OUT AHEAD OF THIS LINE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS ALL
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THE INSTABILITY...SHEAR
PROFILES AND LIFTING MECHANISMS SUCH AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...A
SURFACE TROUGH AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IN FACT SUPERCELLS WITH SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF THE
INGREDIENTS ALL COME TOGETHER. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK LATER TONIGHT
WHILE THE POTENT COLD FRONT LIKELY JUMPS TO THE PRESSURE TROUGH OFF
TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY MORNING. THE DRY SLOT ALONG WITH COLD
ADVECTION SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS TO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 70S IN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT 24 HRS LOOK TO BE VERY ACTIVE WX WISE...WITH A DOWNWARD
TREND IN ACTIVITY EXPECTED THEREAFTER. CD FNT LOOKS TO BE MOVING
OFFSHORE MIDDAY MON...BRINGING AN END TO THE CNVCTV CHCS AND
USHERING IN THE COOLER AIR THAT WL END WHAT IS TYPICALLY THE
HOTTEST TIME IN THE HOTTEST MONTH OF THE YR (CLIMATOLOGICALLY
TEMPS BEGIN TO DROP IN EARLY AUG). BRZY CONDS AREA XPCTD MON AFTN.

AFTR THAT SVRL DAYS OF M CLR SKIES W/ COMFORTABLE TEMPS ARE XPCTD.
DWPTS IN THE 50S...HARD NOT TO ENJOY THAT IN JUL. HIGH TEMPS TUE-THU
SHOULD BE IN THE LM80S (COOLER IN THE MTNS) W/ LOWS IN THE MU50S.
(WARMER IN THE CITIES). NO REALLY HOT WX ON TAP FOR THE MID ATLC RGN.

AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED B4 THE PRIMARY REASON FOR THIS IS THE UPR
LVL WRN RDG/ERN TROF. DRY AND HOT IN THE W - NW ICC WEB SITE SHOWS
MULTIPLE WILDFIRES ONGOING IN OR/WA - W/ 2 IN WA BEING ESPECIALLY
LARGE. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO RMN IN PLACE UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT
WKND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED TO MVFR/IFR
LEVELS BRIEFLY DURING TIMES OF CONVECTION.

CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF TO
OUR EAST.

CD FNT WL CROSS THE AREA MON MRNG. LINGERING SHOWERS/ANY LOWER CIGS
SHOULD IMPROVE BY AFTN THEN GUSTY NWRLY WINDS. THESE SHOULD
DIMINISH BY EVE. VFR CONDS MON NGT THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
IT WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS...BUT A
STRENGHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WIND FIELD SHOULD CAUSE GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LATE
TONIGHT ALONG THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO
SMITH POINT AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER FROM COBB ISLAND TO
SMITH POINT. ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL AND ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE. PLEASE PAY ATTENTION
TO THE LATEST FORECASTS REGARDING WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.

SCA IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS DURG THE DAY MON AS A CD FNT
MOVES OFFSHORE AND WNW WINDS STRENGTHEN. NO PROBS FORESEEN MON
NGT-MIDWK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS CAUSED TIDAL ANOMALIES BETWEEN ONE HALF AND ONE
FOOT ABOVE NORMAL EARLY THIS MORNING. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY FOR MINOR FLOODING NEAR
HIGH TIDE EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ALONG THE
UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC SHORE NEAR WASHINGTON DC. AT THIS TIME...THE
FLOW APPEARS THAT IT IS LIGHT ENOUGH FOR WATER LEVELS TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS NEAR HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING.

THE HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE LOWER OF THE TWO...SO NO
TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN OFFSHORE
LATE TONIGHT SO ANOMALIES SHOULD COME DOWN A BIT. THEREFORE...TIDAL
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ530-531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...BJL/WOODY!







000
FXUS61 KLWX 270916 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
516 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE LOCATED IN THE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. ONE IS OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE ANOTHER ONE IS
TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC HAS USHERED IN MORE MOISTURE...CAUSING
INSTABILITY TO INCREASE. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED INSTABILITY
AND FORCING FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES HAS TRIGGERED SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT THE OTHER ONE IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OUR AREA
LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS OF NOW...IT APPEARS THAT ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LIMITED
DUE TO CLOUD COVER...MARGINAL PROFILES AND PRECIPITATION KEEPING
INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT LIMITED.

HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD AT
LEAST BE SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE...AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S...THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. NAM/GFS BUFKIT ARE INDICATING BETWEEN 1000
AND 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A
POTENT SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE UPPER-LEVEL AND LOWER-LEVEL FLOW
OVER OUR AREA...CAUSING SHEAR PROFILES TO BE HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO WEST VIRGINIA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SPREAD THROUGH OUR AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS IS GOING TO BE THE TIME WHEN
SEVERE WEATHER IS MOST LIKELY...WHICH WOULD BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS AND THIS
EVENING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...KEEP IN MIND
THAT SEVERE STORMS OUT AHEAD OF THIS LINE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS ALL
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THE INSTABILITY...SHEAR
PROFILES AND LIFTING MECHANISMS SUCH AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...A
SURFACE TROUGH AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IN FACT SUPERCELLS WITH SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF THE
INGREDIENTS ALL COME TOGETHER. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK LATER TONIGHT
WHILE THE POTENT COLD FRONT LIKELY JUMPS TO THE PRESSURE TROUGH OFF
TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY MORNING. THE DRY SLOT ALONG WITH COLD
ADVECTION SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS TO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 70S IN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT 24 HRS LOOK TO BE VERY ACTIVE WX WISE...WITH A DOWNWARD
TREND IN ACTIVITY EXPECTED THEREAFTER. CD FNT LOOKS TO BE MOVING
OFFSHORE MIDDAY MON...BRINGING AN END TO THE CNVCTV CHCS AND
USHERING IN THE COOLER AIR THAT WL END WHAT IS TYPICALLY THE
HOTTEST TIME IN THE HOTTEST MONTH OF THE YR (CLIMATOLOGICALLY
TEMPS BEGIN TO DROP IN EARLY AUG). BRZY CONDS AREA XPCTD MON AFTN.

AFTR THAT SVRL DAYS OF M CLR SKIES W/ COMFORTABLE TEMPS ARE XPCTD.
DWPTS IN THE 50S...HARD NOT TO ENJOY THAT IN JUL. HIGH TEMPS TUE-THU
SHOULD BE IN THE LM80S (COOLER IN THE MTNS) W/ LOWS IN THE MU50S.
(WARMER IN THE CITIES). NO REALLY HOT WX ON TAP FOR THE MID ATLC RGN.

AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED B4 THE PRIMARY REASON FOR THIS IS THE UPR
LVL WRN RDG/ERN TROF. DRY AND HOT IN THE W - NW ICC WEB SITE SHOWS
MULTIPLE WILDFIRES ONGOING IN OR/WA - W/ 2 IN WA BEING ESPECIALLY
LARGE. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO RMN IN PLACE UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT
WKND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED TO MVFR/IFR
LEVELS BRIEFLY DURING TIMES OF CONVECTION.

CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF TO
OUR EAST.

CD FNT WL CROSS THE AREA MON MRNG. LINGERING SHOWERS/ANY LOWER CIGS
SHOULD IMPROVE BY AFTN THEN GUSTY NWRLY WINDS. THESE SHOULD
DIMINISH BY EVE. VFR CONDS MON NGT THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
IT WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS...BUT A
STRENGHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WIND FIELD SHOULD CAUSE GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LATE
TONIGHT ALONG THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO
SMITH POINT AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER FROM COBB ISLAND TO
SMITH POINT. ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL AND ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE. PLEASE PAY ATTENTION
TO THE LATEST FORECASTS REGARDING WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.

SCA IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS DURG THE DAY MON AS A CD FNT
MOVES OFFSHORE AND WNW WINDS STRENGTHEN. NO PROBS FORESEEN MON
NGT-MIDWK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS CAUSED TIDAL ANOMALIES BETWEEN ONE HALF AND ONE
FOOT ABOVE NORMAL EARLY THIS MORNING. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY FOR MINOR FLOODING NEAR
HIGH TIDE EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ALONG THE
UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC SHORE NEAR WASHINGTON DC. AT THIS TIME...THE
FLOW APPEARS THAT IT IS LIGHT ENOUGH FOR WATER LEVELS TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS NEAR HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING.

THE HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE LOWER OF THE TWO...SO NO
TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN OFFSHORE
LATE TONIGHT SO ANOMALIES SHOULD COME DOWN A BIT. THEREFORE...TIDAL
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ530-531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...BJL/WOODY!







000
FXUS61 KLWX 270916 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
516 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE LOCATED IN THE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. ONE IS OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE ANOTHER ONE IS
TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC HAS USHERED IN MORE MOISTURE...CAUSING
INSTABILITY TO INCREASE. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED INSTABILITY
AND FORCING FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES HAS TRIGGERED SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT THE OTHER ONE IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OUR AREA
LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS OF NOW...IT APPEARS THAT ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LIMITED
DUE TO CLOUD COVER...MARGINAL PROFILES AND PRECIPITATION KEEPING
INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT LIMITED.

HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD AT
LEAST BE SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE...AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S...THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. NAM/GFS BUFKIT ARE INDICATING BETWEEN 1000
AND 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A
POTENT SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE UPPER-LEVEL AND LOWER-LEVEL FLOW
OVER OUR AREA...CAUSING SHEAR PROFILES TO BE HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO WEST VIRGINIA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SPREAD THROUGH OUR AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS IS GOING TO BE THE TIME WHEN
SEVERE WEATHER IS MOST LIKELY...WHICH WOULD BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS AND THIS
EVENING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...KEEP IN MIND
THAT SEVERE STORMS OUT AHEAD OF THIS LINE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS ALL
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THE INSTABILITY...SHEAR
PROFILES AND LIFTING MECHANISMS SUCH AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...A
SURFACE TROUGH AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IN FACT SUPERCELLS WITH SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF THE
INGREDIENTS ALL COME TOGETHER. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK LATER TONIGHT
WHILE THE POTENT COLD FRONT LIKELY JUMPS TO THE PRESSURE TROUGH OFF
TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY MORNING. THE DRY SLOT ALONG WITH COLD
ADVECTION SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS TO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 70S IN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT 24 HRS LOOK TO BE VERY ACTIVE WX WISE...WITH A DOWNWARD
TREND IN ACTIVITY EXPECTED THEREAFTER. CD FNT LOOKS TO BE MOVING
OFFSHORE MIDDAY MON...BRINGING AN END TO THE CNVCTV CHCS AND
USHERING IN THE COOLER AIR THAT WL END WHAT IS TYPICALLY THE
HOTTEST TIME IN THE HOTTEST MONTH OF THE YR (CLIMATOLOGICALLY
TEMPS BEGIN TO DROP IN EARLY AUG). BRZY CONDS AREA XPCTD MON AFTN.

AFTR THAT SVRL DAYS OF M CLR SKIES W/ COMFORTABLE TEMPS ARE XPCTD.
DWPTS IN THE 50S...HARD NOT TO ENJOY THAT IN JUL. HIGH TEMPS TUE-THU
SHOULD BE IN THE LM80S (COOLER IN THE MTNS) W/ LOWS IN THE MU50S.
(WARMER IN THE CITIES). NO REALLY HOT WX ON TAP FOR THE MID ATLC RGN.

AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED B4 THE PRIMARY REASON FOR THIS IS THE UPR
LVL WRN RDG/ERN TROF. DRY AND HOT IN THE W - NW ICC WEB SITE SHOWS
MULTIPLE WILDFIRES ONGOING IN OR/WA - W/ 2 IN WA BEING ESPECIALLY
LARGE. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO RMN IN PLACE UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT
WKND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED TO MVFR/IFR
LEVELS BRIEFLY DURING TIMES OF CONVECTION.

CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF TO
OUR EAST.

CD FNT WL CROSS THE AREA MON MRNG. LINGERING SHOWERS/ANY LOWER CIGS
SHOULD IMPROVE BY AFTN THEN GUSTY NWRLY WINDS. THESE SHOULD
DIMINISH BY EVE. VFR CONDS MON NGT THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
IT WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS...BUT A
STRENGHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WIND FIELD SHOULD CAUSE GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LATE
TONIGHT ALONG THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO
SMITH POINT AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER FROM COBB ISLAND TO
SMITH POINT. ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL AND ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE. PLEASE PAY ATTENTION
TO THE LATEST FORECASTS REGARDING WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.

SCA IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS DURG THE DAY MON AS A CD FNT
MOVES OFFSHORE AND WNW WINDS STRENGTHEN. NO PROBS FORESEEN MON
NGT-MIDWK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS CAUSED TIDAL ANOMALIES BETWEEN ONE HALF AND ONE
FOOT ABOVE NORMAL EARLY THIS MORNING. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY FOR MINOR FLOODING NEAR
HIGH TIDE EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ALONG THE
UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC SHORE NEAR WASHINGTON DC. AT THIS TIME...THE
FLOW APPEARS THAT IT IS LIGHT ENOUGH FOR WATER LEVELS TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS NEAR HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING.

THE HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE LOWER OF THE TWO...SO NO
TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN OFFSHORE
LATE TONIGHT SO ANOMALIES SHOULD COME DOWN A BIT. THEREFORE...TIDAL
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ530-531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...BJL/WOODY!







000
FXUS61 KLWX 270916 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
516 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE LOCATED IN THE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. ONE IS OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE ANOTHER ONE IS
TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC HAS USHERED IN MORE MOISTURE...CAUSING
INSTABILITY TO INCREASE. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED INSTABILITY
AND FORCING FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES HAS TRIGGERED SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT THE OTHER ONE IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OUR AREA
LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS OF NOW...IT APPEARS THAT ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LIMITED
DUE TO CLOUD COVER...MARGINAL PROFILES AND PRECIPITATION KEEPING
INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT LIMITED.

HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD AT
LEAST BE SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE...AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S...THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. NAM/GFS BUFKIT ARE INDICATING BETWEEN 1000
AND 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A
POTENT SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE UPPER-LEVEL AND LOWER-LEVEL FLOW
OVER OUR AREA...CAUSING SHEAR PROFILES TO BE HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO WEST VIRGINIA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SPREAD THROUGH OUR AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS IS GOING TO BE THE TIME WHEN
SEVERE WEATHER IS MOST LIKELY...WHICH WOULD BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS AND THIS
EVENING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...KEEP IN MIND
THAT SEVERE STORMS OUT AHEAD OF THIS LINE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS ALL
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THE INSTABILITY...SHEAR
PROFILES AND LIFTING MECHANISMS SUCH AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...A
SURFACE TROUGH AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IN FACT SUPERCELLS WITH SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF THE
INGREDIENTS ALL COME TOGETHER. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK LATER TONIGHT
WHILE THE POTENT COLD FRONT LIKELY JUMPS TO THE PRESSURE TROUGH OFF
TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY MORNING. THE DRY SLOT ALONG WITH COLD
ADVECTION SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS TO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 70S IN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT 24 HRS LOOK TO BE VERY ACTIVE WX WISE...WITH A DOWNWARD
TREND IN ACTIVITY EXPECTED THEREAFTER. CD FNT LOOKS TO BE MOVING
OFFSHORE MIDDAY MON...BRINGING AN END TO THE CNVCTV CHCS AND
USHERING IN THE COOLER AIR THAT WL END WHAT IS TYPICALLY THE
HOTTEST TIME IN THE HOTTEST MONTH OF THE YR (CLIMATOLOGICALLY
TEMPS BEGIN TO DROP IN EARLY AUG). BRZY CONDS AREA XPCTD MON AFTN.

AFTR THAT SVRL DAYS OF M CLR SKIES W/ COMFORTABLE TEMPS ARE XPCTD.
DWPTS IN THE 50S...HARD NOT TO ENJOY THAT IN JUL. HIGH TEMPS TUE-THU
SHOULD BE IN THE LM80S (COOLER IN THE MTNS) W/ LOWS IN THE MU50S.
(WARMER IN THE CITIES). NO REALLY HOT WX ON TAP FOR THE MID ATLC RGN.

AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED B4 THE PRIMARY REASON FOR THIS IS THE UPR
LVL WRN RDG/ERN TROF. DRY AND HOT IN THE W - NW ICC WEB SITE SHOWS
MULTIPLE WILDFIRES ONGOING IN OR/WA - W/ 2 IN WA BEING ESPECIALLY
LARGE. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO RMN IN PLACE UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT
WKND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED TO MVFR/IFR
LEVELS BRIEFLY DURING TIMES OF CONVECTION.

CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF TO
OUR EAST.

CD FNT WL CROSS THE AREA MON MRNG. LINGERING SHOWERS/ANY LOWER CIGS
SHOULD IMPROVE BY AFTN THEN GUSTY NWRLY WINDS. THESE SHOULD
DIMINISH BY EVE. VFR CONDS MON NGT THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
IT WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS...BUT A
STRENGHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WIND FIELD SHOULD CAUSE GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LATE
TONIGHT ALONG THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO
SMITH POINT AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER FROM COBB ISLAND TO
SMITH POINT. ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL AND ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE. PLEASE PAY ATTENTION
TO THE LATEST FORECASTS REGARDING WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.

SCA IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS DURG THE DAY MON AS A CD FNT
MOVES OFFSHORE AND WNW WINDS STRENGTHEN. NO PROBS FORESEEN MON
NGT-MIDWK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS CAUSED TIDAL ANOMALIES BETWEEN ONE HALF AND ONE
FOOT ABOVE NORMAL EARLY THIS MORNING. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY FOR MINOR FLOODING NEAR
HIGH TIDE EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ALONG THE
UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC SHORE NEAR WASHINGTON DC. AT THIS TIME...THE
FLOW APPEARS THAT IT IS LIGHT ENOUGH FOR WATER LEVELS TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS NEAR HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING.

THE HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE LOWER OF THE TWO...SO NO
TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN OFFSHORE
LATE TONIGHT SO ANOMALIES SHOULD COME DOWN A BIT. THEREFORE...TIDAL
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ530-531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...BJL/WOODY!







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270854
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
454 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION TODAY AND STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES
THE AREA ON MONDAY AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WNW FLOW ALOFT IS STEERING A WANING MCS FROM SRN IN/WRN KY INTO SW
VA EARLY THIS MORNING. REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE MCS AND
EARLIER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/WV ON SATURDAY
ARE INTERACTING WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE OVER NW VA...THUS MERGING
WITH THE MCS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WORKING THEIR WAY INTO
FAR WRN COUNTIES OF THE PIEDMONT AND WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

A WARM FRONT IS NOW LOCATED JUST NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND A
LEESIDE TROUGH IS DEEPENING. MEANWHILE...A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT
WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM CHICAGO
THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW/SHORTWAVE WILL SWING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES TODAY AND PUSH THE
COLD FRONT TWD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. SHORTWAVE ENERGY LEFT OVER
FROM THE MCS AND ALSO EJECTING FROM THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE LEESIDE TROUGH BY THIS AFTN AND ENHANCE SYNOPTIC LIFT. MODEL
CROSS SECTIONS/TIME HEIGHTS/SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PLENTY OF
ELEVATED LIFT. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW INCREASING WIND SPEEDS WITH HEIGHT
WITH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IN THE MID LEVELS (SW SFC GUSTS TO AROUND
20 MPH IN THE AFTN DUE TO A TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT). 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR REMAINS STRONG (AROUND 40 KT...INCREASING TO 50-60 KT BY
LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING). MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOW COMING INTO
AGREEMENT WITH A MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR PROFILE AND MORE
LINEAR HODOGRAPHS...WHICH SUPPORTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE LINE SEGMENTS THAT WILL BE RIGHT-MOVERS.
OVERALL...CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS (MAINLY THIS AFTN/EVENING) THAT MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. IF LEADING SUPERCELLS CAN DEVELOP TODAY...THEN AN
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT CANNOT BE RULE OUT. SPC HAS THE ENTIRE
WAKEFIELD AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WITH A
MODERATE RISK FARTHER WEST OVER THE OH/KY/WV BORDER AREAS. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE STRONG COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO CNTRL VA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.


TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TODAY DUE TO THICK CIRRUS OVERSPREADING
THE REGION FROM MCS ACTIVITY. THIS WOULD ACT TO COOL TEMPS BY
SEVERAL DEGREES AND YET DECENT AFTN MIXING WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL
WARM SECTOR SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME ANY CLOUD LIMITING FACTORS.
STILL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S TODAY. DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER 70S WILL BUMP HEAT INDEX VALUES TO 100-104 DEGREES
(SUB-ADVISORY) ACROSS SE VA/NE NC WHERE MORE PEAKS OF SUNSHINE ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTN. FOR TONIGHT...PRECIP
PLACEMENT AND ONGOING CONVECTION WILL DETERMINE EXACTLY HOW LOW
TEMPS CAN GO BY MONDAY MORNING. AM EXPECTING A WARM MUGGY NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S NW (UPPER 60S POSSIBLE FAR NW COUNTIES) TO
UPPER 70S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE STRONG COLD FRONT QUICKLY PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE FOCUSED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AND RE-FIRE IN INTENSITY DUE TO THE ADDED LIFT. OVERALL...
PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS UNTIL THE FRONT CAN
PUSH WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING.
ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS DIMINISHED ON
MONDAY...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
WEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH AS A COOLER
AND DRIER CANADIAN AIRMASS FILTERS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW-N.
WINDS AND SUNSHINE WILL BE KEY PLAYERS IN HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY.
CURRENT FORECAST RANGES FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO 90-95 SE.


BNDRY PROGGED TO STALL INVOF GULF STREAM MON NIGHT AND TUE WHILE A
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. KEPT SLGHT CHC
POPS ALONG SERN CSTL AREAS MON EVENING. LOWS IN THE 60S...XCPT L70S
SERN CSTL AREAS. DRY TUESDAY ALONG WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AS DEWPOINTS
DROP INTO THE 50S. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE L80S...U70S AT
THE BEACHES. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S W TO MID 60S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF DIGS OVR THE MID ATLC REGION TUE NGT
INTO EARLY THU...BEFORE RETROGRADING BACK INTO THE OH AND MS VALLEYS
THU AFTN THRU SAT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OFF THE MID ATLC
CST TUE NGT THRU FRI...THEN DRIFTS BACK TWD THE CST FRI NGT THRU
SAT. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR TUE NGT THRU FRI...THEN HAVE ADDED
SLGT CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT AND SAT. A MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL
DOMINATE THE AREA TUE NGT THRU THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LWR TO MID 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S
TO MID 60S WED AND THU MORNGS...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI
MORNG...AND RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AREA OF CONVECTION SLIDING SE FM SW PA/NRN WV/NW VA TO CONT
TRACKING ESE THROUGH EARLY MRNG HRS W/ SOME WEAKENING AS IT DOES
SO. PTNTL FOR PCPN AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...ESP KRIC-KSBY. A
SECOND AREA OF CONVECTION FCST TO EXIT THE MTNS MID/LT MRNG...AND
TRACK OVR THE RGN MIDDAY INTO THIS EVE (ALSO W/ PSBL BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS/HVY RA). OTRW...SSW WINDS GUSTING TO 15 KT AND SCT-BKN
CLDS XPCD TDA AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W.
THE FRONT IS XPCD TO CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY W/ LO PROB FOR
PCPN AND GUSTY MNLY W WNDS (TO 20 KT). MNLY VFR CONDS MON NGT INTO
WED.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES XPCD THRU MON. A CDFNT PUSHES APPROACHES THE MID ATLC
REGION TDA...THEN MOVE ACRS THE WTRS AND OFF THE CST LATE TNGT
THROUGH MON NGT. SSW WINDS 10 TO 20 KT THROUGH TNGT. WINDS WILL TURN
TO THE W DURING MON...THEN NW AND N MON NGT INTO TUE MRNG.
WAVES/SEAS LIKELY TO RISE A FOOT OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO INCRSD SPDS
AND DIRECTION CHG TO NNW (MON NGT INTO TUE). GENERALLY NNE WINDS
15 KT OR LESS EXPECTED FOR TUE THRU THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD/MPR
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270854
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
454 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION TODAY AND STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES
THE AREA ON MONDAY AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WNW FLOW ALOFT IS STEERING A WANING MCS FROM SRN IN/WRN KY INTO SW
VA EARLY THIS MORNING. REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE MCS AND
EARLIER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/WV ON SATURDAY
ARE INTERACTING WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE OVER NW VA...THUS MERGING
WITH THE MCS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WORKING THEIR WAY INTO
FAR WRN COUNTIES OF THE PIEDMONT AND WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

A WARM FRONT IS NOW LOCATED JUST NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND A
LEESIDE TROUGH IS DEEPENING. MEANWHILE...A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT
WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM CHICAGO
THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW/SHORTWAVE WILL SWING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES TODAY AND PUSH THE
COLD FRONT TWD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. SHORTWAVE ENERGY LEFT OVER
FROM THE MCS AND ALSO EJECTING FROM THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE LEESIDE TROUGH BY THIS AFTN AND ENHANCE SYNOPTIC LIFT. MODEL
CROSS SECTIONS/TIME HEIGHTS/SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PLENTY OF
ELEVATED LIFT. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW INCREASING WIND SPEEDS WITH HEIGHT
WITH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IN THE MID LEVELS (SW SFC GUSTS TO AROUND
20 MPH IN THE AFTN DUE TO A TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT). 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR REMAINS STRONG (AROUND 40 KT...INCREASING TO 50-60 KT BY
LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING). MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOW COMING INTO
AGREEMENT WITH A MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR PROFILE AND MORE
LINEAR HODOGRAPHS...WHICH SUPPORTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE LINE SEGMENTS THAT WILL BE RIGHT-MOVERS.
OVERALL...CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS (MAINLY THIS AFTN/EVENING) THAT MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. IF LEADING SUPERCELLS CAN DEVELOP TODAY...THEN AN
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT CANNOT BE RULE OUT. SPC HAS THE ENTIRE
WAKEFIELD AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WITH A
MODERATE RISK FARTHER WEST OVER THE OH/KY/WV BORDER AREAS. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE STRONG COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO CNTRL VA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.


TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TODAY DUE TO THICK CIRRUS OVERSPREADING
THE REGION FROM MCS ACTIVITY. THIS WOULD ACT TO COOL TEMPS BY
SEVERAL DEGREES AND YET DECENT AFTN MIXING WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL
WARM SECTOR SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME ANY CLOUD LIMITING FACTORS.
STILL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S TODAY. DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER 70S WILL BUMP HEAT INDEX VALUES TO 100-104 DEGREES
(SUB-ADVISORY) ACROSS SE VA/NE NC WHERE MORE PEAKS OF SUNSHINE ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTN. FOR TONIGHT...PRECIP
PLACEMENT AND ONGOING CONVECTION WILL DETERMINE EXACTLY HOW LOW
TEMPS CAN GO BY MONDAY MORNING. AM EXPECTING A WARM MUGGY NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S NW (UPPER 60S POSSIBLE FAR NW COUNTIES) TO
UPPER 70S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE STRONG COLD FRONT QUICKLY PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE FOCUSED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AND RE-FIRE IN INTENSITY DUE TO THE ADDED LIFT. OVERALL...
PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS UNTIL THE FRONT CAN
PUSH WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING.
ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS DIMINISHED ON
MONDAY...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
WEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH AS A COOLER
AND DRIER CANADIAN AIRMASS FILTERS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW-N.
WINDS AND SUNSHINE WILL BE KEY PLAYERS IN HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY.
CURRENT FORECAST RANGES FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO 90-95 SE.


BNDRY PROGGED TO STALL INVOF GULF STREAM MON NIGHT AND TUE WHILE A
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. KEPT SLGHT CHC
POPS ALONG SERN CSTL AREAS MON EVENING. LOWS IN THE 60S...XCPT L70S
SERN CSTL AREAS. DRY TUESDAY ALONG WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AS DEWPOINTS
DROP INTO THE 50S. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE L80S...U70S AT
THE BEACHES. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S W TO MID 60S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF DIGS OVR THE MID ATLC REGION TUE NGT
INTO EARLY THU...BEFORE RETROGRADING BACK INTO THE OH AND MS VALLEYS
THU AFTN THRU SAT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OFF THE MID ATLC
CST TUE NGT THRU FRI...THEN DRIFTS BACK TWD THE CST FRI NGT THRU
SAT. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR TUE NGT THRU FRI...THEN HAVE ADDED
SLGT CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT AND SAT. A MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL
DOMINATE THE AREA TUE NGT THRU THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LWR TO MID 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S
TO MID 60S WED AND THU MORNGS...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI
MORNG...AND RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AREA OF CONVECTION SLIDING SE FM SW PA/NRN WV/NW VA TO CONT
TRACKING ESE THROUGH EARLY MRNG HRS W/ SOME WEAKENING AS IT DOES
SO. PTNTL FOR PCPN AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...ESP KRIC-KSBY. A
SECOND AREA OF CONVECTION FCST TO EXIT THE MTNS MID/LT MRNG...AND
TRACK OVR THE RGN MIDDAY INTO THIS EVE (ALSO W/ PSBL BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS/HVY RA). OTRW...SSW WINDS GUSTING TO 15 KT AND SCT-BKN
CLDS XPCD TDA AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W.
THE FRONT IS XPCD TO CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY W/ LO PROB FOR
PCPN AND GUSTY MNLY W WNDS (TO 20 KT). MNLY VFR CONDS MON NGT INTO
WED.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES XPCD THRU MON. A CDFNT PUSHES APPROACHES THE MID ATLC
REGION TDA...THEN MOVE ACRS THE WTRS AND OFF THE CST LATE TNGT
THROUGH MON NGT. SSW WINDS 10 TO 20 KT THROUGH TNGT. WINDS WILL TURN
TO THE W DURING MON...THEN NW AND N MON NGT INTO TUE MRNG.
WAVES/SEAS LIKELY TO RISE A FOOT OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO INCRSD SPDS
AND DIRECTION CHG TO NNW (MON NGT INTO TUE). GENERALLY NNE WINDS
15 KT OR LESS EXPECTED FOR TUE THRU THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD/MPR
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270815
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
415 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH THE RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER...WILL INCREASE TODAY. COOLER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXPECT A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY FOR MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS.
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO RE-FIRE ONCE THE NEXT
MIDWEST SHORTWAVE REACHES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST MODEL DATA IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE SEVERE THREAT
AS PREVIOUS RUNS. ATMOSPHERE NOT QUITE AS BUOYANT AND SHEAR VALUES
HAVE ALSO DECREASED. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE SUNLIGHT...OR THE
LACK THERE OFF. MODELS ARE SHOWING A LOT OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN
THE LOWER AND MID-LEVELS LINGERING OVER THE REGION TODAY. WITH
WHAT MODELS ARE DETAILING...IF SEVERE WEATHER ERUPTS IT LIKELY
WILL NOT BE UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY...AND IT MAY BE CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF MY FORECAST AREA.

THIS IS A COMPLEX AND CONSTANTLY CHANGING SITUATION...DEPENDENT ON
MANY FACTORS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SWING IN BEHIND IT. STORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE EXITING TROUGH ON
MONDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY MONDAY AND WITH LOTS OF CLOUD
COVER...STORM THREAT SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED.

SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

TUESDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND
COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY. WARMER AIR AND THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TOUGH DAY TO FORECAST. FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AREA RIGHT
NOW...WITH MOST OF THE TSRA NOW NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-70. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE THROUGH BY ABOUT 09Z OR SO...WITH IFR
RESTRICTIONS STILL POSSIBLE IN TSRA. THE OHIO VALLEY MCS WILL MISS TO
OUR SOUTH...SO IT APPEARS THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE A RELATIVE
LULL IN ACTIVITY FROM NEAR SUNRISE TO AROUND MIDDAY. VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE.

STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN EVENTS OF TONIGHT PLUS LATEST MODEL
RUNS...THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY BE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. NEVERTHELESS...MAINTAINED VCTS MENTION FOR
MOST TERMINALS FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WILL HOPEFULLY BE
ABLE TO GIVE BETTER TIMING DETAILS IN FUTURE ISSUANCES.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY THRU MON AS A CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270815
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
415 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH THE RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER...WILL INCREASE TODAY. COOLER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXPECT A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY FOR MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS.
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO RE-FIRE ONCE THE NEXT
MIDWEST SHORTWAVE REACHES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST MODEL DATA IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE SEVERE THREAT
AS PREVIOUS RUNS. ATMOSPHERE NOT QUITE AS BUOYANT AND SHEAR VALUES
HAVE ALSO DECREASED. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE SUNLIGHT...OR THE
LACK THERE OFF. MODELS ARE SHOWING A LOT OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN
THE LOWER AND MID-LEVELS LINGERING OVER THE REGION TODAY. WITH
WHAT MODELS ARE DETAILING...IF SEVERE WEATHER ERUPTS IT LIKELY
WILL NOT BE UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY...AND IT MAY BE CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF MY FORECAST AREA.

THIS IS A COMPLEX AND CONSTANTLY CHANGING SITUATION...DEPENDENT ON
MANY FACTORS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SWING IN BEHIND IT. STORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE EXITING TROUGH ON
MONDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY MONDAY AND WITH LOTS OF CLOUD
COVER...STORM THREAT SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED.

SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

TUESDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND
COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY. WARMER AIR AND THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TOUGH DAY TO FORECAST. FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AREA RIGHT
NOW...WITH MOST OF THE TSRA NOW NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-70. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE THROUGH BY ABOUT 09Z OR SO...WITH IFR
RESTRICTIONS STILL POSSIBLE IN TSRA. THE OHIO VALLEY MCS WILL MISS TO
OUR SOUTH...SO IT APPEARS THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE A RELATIVE
LULL IN ACTIVITY FROM NEAR SUNRISE TO AROUND MIDDAY. VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE.

STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN EVENTS OF TONIGHT PLUS LATEST MODEL
RUNS...THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY BE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. NEVERTHELESS...MAINTAINED VCTS MENTION FOR
MOST TERMINALS FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WILL HOPEFULLY BE
ABLE TO GIVE BETTER TIMING DETAILS IN FUTURE ISSUANCES.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY THRU MON AS A CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 270802
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
402 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR AREA TODAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY, BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN AREA OF PRECIP, ASSOCD WITH THE REMNANTS OF AN MCS WAS MOVG SEWD
THRU WV, MD, AND VA.  WHILE IT IS WEAKENING, IT COULD BRING SOME
SHWRS AND TSTMS MAINLY TO OUR SRN AREAS THIS MRNG.  THEN, THE
QUESTION BECOMES WHAT IMPACT THIS SYS AND ITS AFFECTS WILL HAVE FOR
LATER IN THE DAY?

THE MDLS STILL HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENTS ON WHAT HAPPENS LATER TODAY,
BUT IF THERE IS ONE TREND THEY ALL SEEM TO BE SHOWING WITH THE
LATEST RUNS IS THAT THE CONVECTION/SHOWERS WILL BE LATER IN THE DAY
AND INTO THE NIGHT.  THIS MEANS THERE COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT BREAK
DURG THE DAY, AND THEN THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH SUNSHINE DO WE SEE.
HOW MUCH CLOUDS/DEBRIS IS LEFT OVER FROM THE MORNING ACTIVITY?


AN AREA OF LOW PRES ACRS SERN CANADA AND ANOTHER NEAR THE GRTLKS
WILL MOVE SEWD THROUGH TONIGHT.  THE CDFNT ASSOCD WITH THIS COMPLEX
AREA OF LOW PRES WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY AND CROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT.

EXPECT SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY, BUT THE MDLS
CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFICULTY WITH THE COVERAGE AND TIMING.  THERE IS
GOOD CAPE, OMEGA AND INSTABILITY, ITS JUST A QUESTION OF WHERE
AND IF IT ALL COMES TOGETHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT, THE AFOREMENTIONED CDFNT WILL CROSS THE REGION.  THE
HIGHEST POPS THRU THIS WHOLE EVENT COULD END UP BEING TONIGHT FIRST
WITH TSTMS THEN WITH SOME SHWRS.  THERE ARE STILL TIMING ISSUES WRT
TO THE FRONT, BUT IT STILL WILL NOT HAVE CLEARED THE REGION BY
DAYBREAK MON.  THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF, WHICH IS NOT
SURPRISING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

IN THE MID LEVELS...A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES, WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH IT
DURING THE WEEK. THE TROUGH STARTS TO RETROGRADE AND WILL DEEPEN AS
IT SETTLES TO OUR WEST.

BY MONDAY MORNING, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WILL BE MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS LOW WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION DURING THE MORNING, CROSSING
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES INCHING UP TOWARDS 2 INCHES, THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT
PUSHES OFFSHORE, WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND
EVENTUALLY WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WHILE IT
APPEARS WE SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THIS WEEK WITH THE HIGH
BUILDING INTO OUR AREA, SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND MAY HELP TO
SPARK OFF SOME SHOWERS. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE
SHORTWAVES MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FROM DAY TO DAY.

AS THE TROUGH RETROGRADES, IT DEEPENS AND AS A RESULT, WE SHOULD
START TO HAVE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA. SHORTWAVES
WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE MID LEVEL FLOW AND AGAIN MAY AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK AND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

WITH THE DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH NEAR OUR AREA, OUR TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL OFF A BIT AND BE BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. AS THE TROUGH STARTS TO PUSH TO THE WEST, WE SHOULD START
TO SEE A MODERATION IN THE TEMPERATURES OCCUR FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A LOW CONFIDENCE AND COMPLICATED FCST DAY, BUT SHWRS AND TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL SITES LATER TODAY.  LATEST RADAR
ALREADY HAS SOME SCT SHWRS AROUND AS REMNANTS OF A SYS FROM THE
MIDWEST WEAKEN AND GENLY MOVE BY TO OUR SW.  THEN, A COMPLEX LOW
PRES SYS IN SERN CANADA AND ITS ASSOCD CDFNT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE
THRU TONIGHT INTO MON.  THIS FRONT WILL TRIGGER SHWRS AND TSRA.  ANY
OF THE OR TSRA THIS MRNG OR LATER COULD BRING REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS.

THE GUID SEEMS TO HAVE PUSHED BACK THE ONSET TIME WITH THE ACTIVITY
LATER THIS AFTN/EVE, SO HAVE TAKEN THAT APPROACH IN THE TAFS, SO
HAVE TRENDED IN THAT DIRECTION AND STILL COULD BE TOO FAST...OR NOT.

ONCE THE CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH, THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THE NIGHT UNTIL SOME IMPROVEMENT CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK OR BEYOND.

A GENL S WIND IS EXPECTED ERLY.  IT WILL BECOME MORE SWLY AND
INCREASE TO THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE DURG THE DAY. IT WILL DECREASE
AND BECOME LIGHT (OUTSIDE OF ANY TSRA) OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE WLY BY DAYBREAK AS THE FRONT MOVES THRU.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITHIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN DURING MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. SHOWERS EARLY...THEN CLEARING.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING, AROUND 5 KT OR LESS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY TO SWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA WATERS AND SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.  BY DAYBREAK MON, WE COULD BE VERY CLOSE TO
SCA CONDS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN WATERS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES ATTM.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...SEAS WILL BUILD IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT AND LOOK TO
BUILD NEAR 5 FEET WITH WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 20-25 KT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/MEOLA
MARINE...NIERENBERG/MEOLA







000
FXUS61 KLWX 270653
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
253 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE LOCATED IN THE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. ONE IS OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE ANOTHER ONE IS
TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC HAS USHERED IN MORE MOISTURE...CAUSING
INSTABILITY TO INCREASE. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED INSTABILITY
AND FORCING FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES HAS TRIGGERED SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT THE OTHER ONE IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OUR AREA
LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS OF NOW...IT APPEARS THAT ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LIMITED
DUE TO CLOUD COVER...MARGINAL PROFILES AND PRECIPITATION KEEPING
INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT LIMITED.

HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD AT
LEAST BE SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE...AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S...THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. NAM/GFS BUFKIT ARE INDICATING BETWEEN 1000
AND 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A
POTENT SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE UPPER-LEVEL AND LOWER-LEVEL FLOW
OVER OUR AREA...CAUSING SHEAR PROFILES TO BE HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO WEST VIRGINIA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SPREAD THROUGH OUR AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS IS GOING TO BE THE TIME WHEN
SEVERE WEATHER IS MOST LIKELY...WHICH WOULD BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS AND THIS
EVENING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...KEEP IN MIND
THAT SEVERE STORMS OUT AHEAD OF THIS LINE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS ALL
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THE INSTABILITY...SHEAR
PROFILES AND LIFTING MECHANISMS SUCH AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...A
SURFACE TROUGH AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IN FACT SUPERCELLS WITH SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF THE
INGREDIENTS ALL COME TOGETHER. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...

THE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK LATER TONIGHT
WHILE THE POTENT COLD FRONT LIKELY JUMPS TO THE PRESSURE TROUGH OFF
TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY MORNING. THE DRY SLOT ALONG WITH COLD
ADVECTION SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS TO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 70S IN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THE NEXT 24 HRS LOOK TO BE VERY ACTIVE WX WISE...WITH A DOWNWARD
TREND IN ACTIVITY EXPECTED THEREAFTER. CD FNT LOOKS TO BE MOVING
OFFSHORE MIDDAY MON...BRINGING AN END TO THE CNVCTV CHCS AND
USHERING IN THE COOLER AIR THAT WL END WHAT IS TYPICALLY THE
HOTTEST TIME IN THE HOTTEST MONTH OF THE YR (CLIMATOLOGICALLY
TEMPS BEGIN TO DROP IN EARLY AUG). BRZY CONDS AREA XPCTD MON AFTN.

AFTR THAT SVRL DAYS OF M CLR SKIES W/ COMFORTABLE TEMPS ARE XPCTD.
DWPTS IN THE 50S...HARD NOT TO ENJOY THAT IN JUL. HIGH TEMPS TUE-THU
SHOULD BE IN THE LM80S (COOLER IN THE MTNS) W/ LOWS IN THE MU50S.
(WARMER IN THE CITIES). NO REALLY HOT WX ON TAP FOR THE MID ATLC RGN.

AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED B4 THE PRIMARY REASON FOR THIS IS THE UPR
LVL WRN RDG/ERN TROF. DRY AND HOT IN THE W - NW ICC WEB SITE SHOWS
MULTIPLE WILDFIRES ONGOING IN OR/WA - W/ 2 IN WA BEING ESPECIALLY
LARGE. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO RMN IN PLACE UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT
WKND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED TO MVFR/IFR
LEVELS BRIEFLY DURING TIMES OF CONVECTION.

CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF TO
OUR EAST.

CD FNT WL CROSS THE AREA MON MRNG. LINGERING SHOWERS/ANY LOWER CIGS
SHOULD IMPROVE BY AFTN THEN GUSTY NWRLY WINDS. THESE SHOULD
DIMINISH BY EVE. VFR CONDS MON NGT THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR THE
MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO SMITH POINT AND THE
LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER FROM COBB ISLAND TO SMITH POINT. ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE. PLEASE PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS REGARDING WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

SCA IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS DURG THE DAY MON AS A CD FNT
MOVES OFFSHORE AND WNW WINDS STRENGTHEN. NO PROBS FORESEEN MON
NGT-MIDWK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

A SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS CAUSED TIDAL ANOMALIES BETWEEN ONE HALF AND ONE
FOOT ABOVE NORMAL EARLY THIS MORNING. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY FOR MINOR FLOODING NEAR
HIGH TIDE EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ALONG THE
UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC SHORE NEAR WASHINGTON DC. AT THIS TIME...THE
FLOW APPEARS THAT IT IS LIGHT ENOUGH FOR WATER LEVELS TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS NEAR HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING.

THE HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE LOWER OF THE TWO...SO NO
TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN OFFSHORE
LATE TONIGHT SO ANOMALIES SHOULD COME DOWN A BIT. THEREFORE...TIDAL
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ531>534-537-539>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...BJL/WOODY!








000
FXUS61 KLWX 270653
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
253 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE LOCATED IN THE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. ONE IS OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE ANOTHER ONE IS
TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC HAS USHERED IN MORE MOISTURE...CAUSING
INSTABILITY TO INCREASE. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED INSTABILITY
AND FORCING FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES HAS TRIGGERED SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT THE OTHER ONE IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OUR AREA
LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS OF NOW...IT APPEARS THAT ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LIMITED
DUE TO CLOUD COVER...MARGINAL PROFILES AND PRECIPITATION KEEPING
INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT LIMITED.

HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD AT
LEAST BE SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE...AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S...THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. NAM/GFS BUFKIT ARE INDICATING BETWEEN 1000
AND 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A
POTENT SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE UPPER-LEVEL AND LOWER-LEVEL FLOW
OVER OUR AREA...CAUSING SHEAR PROFILES TO BE HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO WEST VIRGINIA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SPREAD THROUGH OUR AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS IS GOING TO BE THE TIME WHEN
SEVERE WEATHER IS MOST LIKELY...WHICH WOULD BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS AND THIS
EVENING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...KEEP IN MIND
THAT SEVERE STORMS OUT AHEAD OF THIS LINE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS ALL
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THE INSTABILITY...SHEAR
PROFILES AND LIFTING MECHANISMS SUCH AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...A
SURFACE TROUGH AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IN FACT SUPERCELLS WITH SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF THE
INGREDIENTS ALL COME TOGETHER. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...

THE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK LATER TONIGHT
WHILE THE POTENT COLD FRONT LIKELY JUMPS TO THE PRESSURE TROUGH OFF
TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY MORNING. THE DRY SLOT ALONG WITH COLD
ADVECTION SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS TO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 70S IN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THE NEXT 24 HRS LOOK TO BE VERY ACTIVE WX WISE...WITH A DOWNWARD
TREND IN ACTIVITY EXPECTED THEREAFTER. CD FNT LOOKS TO BE MOVING
OFFSHORE MIDDAY MON...BRINGING AN END TO THE CNVCTV CHCS AND
USHERING IN THE COOLER AIR THAT WL END WHAT IS TYPICALLY THE
HOTTEST TIME IN THE HOTTEST MONTH OF THE YR (CLIMATOLOGICALLY
TEMPS BEGIN TO DROP IN EARLY AUG). BRZY CONDS AREA XPCTD MON AFTN.

AFTR THAT SVRL DAYS OF M CLR SKIES W/ COMFORTABLE TEMPS ARE XPCTD.
DWPTS IN THE 50S...HARD NOT TO ENJOY THAT IN JUL. HIGH TEMPS TUE-THU
SHOULD BE IN THE LM80S (COOLER IN THE MTNS) W/ LOWS IN THE MU50S.
(WARMER IN THE CITIES). NO REALLY HOT WX ON TAP FOR THE MID ATLC RGN.

AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED B4 THE PRIMARY REASON FOR THIS IS THE UPR
LVL WRN RDG/ERN TROF. DRY AND HOT IN THE W - NW ICC WEB SITE SHOWS
MULTIPLE WILDFIRES ONGOING IN OR/WA - W/ 2 IN WA BEING ESPECIALLY
LARGE. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO RMN IN PLACE UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT
WKND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED TO MVFR/IFR
LEVELS BRIEFLY DURING TIMES OF CONVECTION.

CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF TO
OUR EAST.

CD FNT WL CROSS THE AREA MON MRNG. LINGERING SHOWERS/ANY LOWER CIGS
SHOULD IMPROVE BY AFTN THEN GUSTY NWRLY WINDS. THESE SHOULD
DIMINISH BY EVE. VFR CONDS MON NGT THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR THE
MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO SMITH POINT AND THE
LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER FROM COBB ISLAND TO SMITH POINT. ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE. PLEASE PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS REGARDING WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

SCA IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS DURG THE DAY MON AS A CD FNT
MOVES OFFSHORE AND WNW WINDS STRENGTHEN. NO PROBS FORESEEN MON
NGT-MIDWK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

A SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS CAUSED TIDAL ANOMALIES BETWEEN ONE HALF AND ONE
FOOT ABOVE NORMAL EARLY THIS MORNING. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY FOR MINOR FLOODING NEAR
HIGH TIDE EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ALONG THE
UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC SHORE NEAR WASHINGTON DC. AT THIS TIME...THE
FLOW APPEARS THAT IT IS LIGHT ENOUGH FOR WATER LEVELS TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS NEAR HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING.

THE HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE LOWER OF THE TWO...SO NO
TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN OFFSHORE
LATE TONIGHT SO ANOMALIES SHOULD COME DOWN A BIT. THEREFORE...TIDAL
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ531>534-537-539>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...BJL/WOODY!








000
FXUS61 KLWX 270653
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
253 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE LOCATED IN THE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. ONE IS OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE ANOTHER ONE IS
TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC HAS USHERED IN MORE MOISTURE...CAUSING
INSTABILITY TO INCREASE. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED INSTABILITY
AND FORCING FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES HAS TRIGGERED SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT THE OTHER ONE IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OUR AREA
LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS OF NOW...IT APPEARS THAT ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LIMITED
DUE TO CLOUD COVER...MARGINAL PROFILES AND PRECIPITATION KEEPING
INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT LIMITED.

HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD AT
LEAST BE SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE...AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S...THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. NAM/GFS BUFKIT ARE INDICATING BETWEEN 1000
AND 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A
POTENT SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE UPPER-LEVEL AND LOWER-LEVEL FLOW
OVER OUR AREA...CAUSING SHEAR PROFILES TO BE HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO WEST VIRGINIA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SPREAD THROUGH OUR AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS IS GOING TO BE THE TIME WHEN
SEVERE WEATHER IS MOST LIKELY...WHICH WOULD BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS AND THIS
EVENING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...KEEP IN MIND
THAT SEVERE STORMS OUT AHEAD OF THIS LINE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS ALL
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THE INSTABILITY...SHEAR
PROFILES AND LIFTING MECHANISMS SUCH AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...A
SURFACE TROUGH AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IN FACT SUPERCELLS WITH SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF THE
INGREDIENTS ALL COME TOGETHER. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...

THE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK LATER TONIGHT
WHILE THE POTENT COLD FRONT LIKELY JUMPS TO THE PRESSURE TROUGH OFF
TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY MORNING. THE DRY SLOT ALONG WITH COLD
ADVECTION SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS TO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 70S IN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THE NEXT 24 HRS LOOK TO BE VERY ACTIVE WX WISE...WITH A DOWNWARD
TREND IN ACTIVITY EXPECTED THEREAFTER. CD FNT LOOKS TO BE MOVING
OFFSHORE MIDDAY MON...BRINGING AN END TO THE CNVCTV CHCS AND
USHERING IN THE COOLER AIR THAT WL END WHAT IS TYPICALLY THE
HOTTEST TIME IN THE HOTTEST MONTH OF THE YR (CLIMATOLOGICALLY
TEMPS BEGIN TO DROP IN EARLY AUG). BRZY CONDS AREA XPCTD MON AFTN.

AFTR THAT SVRL DAYS OF M CLR SKIES W/ COMFORTABLE TEMPS ARE XPCTD.
DWPTS IN THE 50S...HARD NOT TO ENJOY THAT IN JUL. HIGH TEMPS TUE-THU
SHOULD BE IN THE LM80S (COOLER IN THE MTNS) W/ LOWS IN THE MU50S.
(WARMER IN THE CITIES). NO REALLY HOT WX ON TAP FOR THE MID ATLC RGN.

AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED B4 THE PRIMARY REASON FOR THIS IS THE UPR
LVL WRN RDG/ERN TROF. DRY AND HOT IN THE W - NW ICC WEB SITE SHOWS
MULTIPLE WILDFIRES ONGOING IN OR/WA - W/ 2 IN WA BEING ESPECIALLY
LARGE. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO RMN IN PLACE UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT
WKND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED TO MVFR/IFR
LEVELS BRIEFLY DURING TIMES OF CONVECTION.

CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF TO
OUR EAST.

CD FNT WL CROSS THE AREA MON MRNG. LINGERING SHOWERS/ANY LOWER CIGS
SHOULD IMPROVE BY AFTN THEN GUSTY NWRLY WINDS. THESE SHOULD
DIMINISH BY EVE. VFR CONDS MON NGT THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR THE
MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO SMITH POINT AND THE
LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER FROM COBB ISLAND TO SMITH POINT. ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE. PLEASE PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS REGARDING WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

SCA IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS DURG THE DAY MON AS A CD FNT
MOVES OFFSHORE AND WNW WINDS STRENGTHEN. NO PROBS FORESEEN MON
NGT-MIDWK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

A SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS CAUSED TIDAL ANOMALIES BETWEEN ONE HALF AND ONE
FOOT ABOVE NORMAL EARLY THIS MORNING. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY FOR MINOR FLOODING NEAR
HIGH TIDE EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ALONG THE
UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC SHORE NEAR WASHINGTON DC. AT THIS TIME...THE
FLOW APPEARS THAT IT IS LIGHT ENOUGH FOR WATER LEVELS TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS NEAR HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING.

THE HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE LOWER OF THE TWO...SO NO
TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN OFFSHORE
LATE TONIGHT SO ANOMALIES SHOULD COME DOWN A BIT. THEREFORE...TIDAL
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ531>534-537-539>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...BJL/WOODY!








000
FXUS61 KLWX 270653
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
253 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE LOCATED IN THE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. ONE IS OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE ANOTHER ONE IS
TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC HAS USHERED IN MORE MOISTURE...CAUSING
INSTABILITY TO INCREASE. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED INSTABILITY
AND FORCING FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES HAS TRIGGERED SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT THE OTHER ONE IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OUR AREA
LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS OF NOW...IT APPEARS THAT ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LIMITED
DUE TO CLOUD COVER...MARGINAL PROFILES AND PRECIPITATION KEEPING
INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT LIMITED.

HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD AT
LEAST BE SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE...AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S...THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. NAM/GFS BUFKIT ARE INDICATING BETWEEN 1000
AND 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A
POTENT SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE UPPER-LEVEL AND LOWER-LEVEL FLOW
OVER OUR AREA...CAUSING SHEAR PROFILES TO BE HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO WEST VIRGINIA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SPREAD THROUGH OUR AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS IS GOING TO BE THE TIME WHEN
SEVERE WEATHER IS MOST LIKELY...WHICH WOULD BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS AND THIS
EVENING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...KEEP IN MIND
THAT SEVERE STORMS OUT AHEAD OF THIS LINE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS ALL
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THE INSTABILITY...SHEAR
PROFILES AND LIFTING MECHANISMS SUCH AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...A
SURFACE TROUGH AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IN FACT SUPERCELLS WITH SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF THE
INGREDIENTS ALL COME TOGETHER. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...

THE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK LATER TONIGHT
WHILE THE POTENT COLD FRONT LIKELY JUMPS TO THE PRESSURE TROUGH OFF
TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY MORNING. THE DRY SLOT ALONG WITH COLD
ADVECTION SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS TO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 70S IN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THE NEXT 24 HRS LOOK TO BE VERY ACTIVE WX WISE...WITH A DOWNWARD
TREND IN ACTIVITY EXPECTED THEREAFTER. CD FNT LOOKS TO BE MOVING
OFFSHORE MIDDAY MON...BRINGING AN END TO THE CNVCTV CHCS AND
USHERING IN THE COOLER AIR THAT WL END WHAT IS TYPICALLY THE
HOTTEST TIME IN THE HOTTEST MONTH OF THE YR (CLIMATOLOGICALLY
TEMPS BEGIN TO DROP IN EARLY AUG). BRZY CONDS AREA XPCTD MON AFTN.

AFTR THAT SVRL DAYS OF M CLR SKIES W/ COMFORTABLE TEMPS ARE XPCTD.
DWPTS IN THE 50S...HARD NOT TO ENJOY THAT IN JUL. HIGH TEMPS TUE-THU
SHOULD BE IN THE LM80S (COOLER IN THE MTNS) W/ LOWS IN THE MU50S.
(WARMER IN THE CITIES). NO REALLY HOT WX ON TAP FOR THE MID ATLC RGN.

AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED B4 THE PRIMARY REASON FOR THIS IS THE UPR
LVL WRN RDG/ERN TROF. DRY AND HOT IN THE W - NW ICC WEB SITE SHOWS
MULTIPLE WILDFIRES ONGOING IN OR/WA - W/ 2 IN WA BEING ESPECIALLY
LARGE. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO RMN IN PLACE UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT
WKND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED TO MVFR/IFR
LEVELS BRIEFLY DURING TIMES OF CONVECTION.

CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF TO
OUR EAST.

CD FNT WL CROSS THE AREA MON MRNG. LINGERING SHOWERS/ANY LOWER CIGS
SHOULD IMPROVE BY AFTN THEN GUSTY NWRLY WINDS. THESE SHOULD
DIMINISH BY EVE. VFR CONDS MON NGT THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR THE
MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO SMITH POINT AND THE
LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER FROM COBB ISLAND TO SMITH POINT. ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE. PLEASE PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS REGARDING WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

SCA IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS DURG THE DAY MON AS A CD FNT
MOVES OFFSHORE AND WNW WINDS STRENGTHEN. NO PROBS FORESEEN MON
NGT-MIDWK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

A SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS CAUSED TIDAL ANOMALIES BETWEEN ONE HALF AND ONE
FOOT ABOVE NORMAL EARLY THIS MORNING. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY FOR MINOR FLOODING NEAR
HIGH TIDE EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ALONG THE
UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC SHORE NEAR WASHINGTON DC. AT THIS TIME...THE
FLOW APPEARS THAT IT IS LIGHT ENOUGH FOR WATER LEVELS TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS NEAR HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING.

THE HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE LOWER OF THE TWO...SO NO
TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN OFFSHORE
LATE TONIGHT SO ANOMALIES SHOULD COME DOWN A BIT. THEREFORE...TIDAL
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ531>534-537-539>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...BJL/WOODY!








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270624
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
224 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION SUNDAY...THEN CROSSES
THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FINALLY HAVE SEEN CONVECTION OVER ERN/SE VA DIMINISH WITH JUST A
SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER CURRITUCK NC (WHICH WILL
DISSIPATE/BE OUT THE AREA SHORTLY). NW FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE LARGELY
RESPONSIBLE FOR EARLIER ACTIVITY...WILL SLOWLY BECOME MORE FROM
THE WNW OVERNIGHT. NEXT POTENTIAL AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS UPSTREAM
IS WEAKENING ALONG THE APPALACHIANS ALTHOUGH MAY SEE ENOUGH ENERGY
IN THE WARM /HUMID AIRMASS OVERNIGHT TO ADD A 20% POP TO N/NW
COUNTIES. BEHIND THAT...MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE IS PUSHING ESE FROM
THE MID MS VALLEY WITH MCS ONGOING OVER IN/KY BUT THIS SHOULD NOT
REACH THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL AFTER 6 AM. ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS ONLY
SLIGHTLY WITH MOST AREAS HAVING MINS 70-75 F. SKIES AVG MOSTLY
CLEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CHALLENGING FORECAST SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES
WRT TIMING OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PROGGED TO MOVE SE AHEAD OF
STRONG COLD FRONT. NAM SUGGESTS TWO ROUNDS OF CONVECTION (LATE MORN
ERLY AFTN WITH A SECOND ONE IN THE EVENING WHILE GFS/SREF SHOW
SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON LEE TROF BY ERLY AFTN THEN DRIFTING
IT SE BUT EXPANDING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTH BY EVENING AS
SECONDARY S/W AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE NW. SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE
ENTIRE FA OUTLOOKED IN SLIGHT RISK WITH A MDT RISK TO THE W OVER W VA.

PARAMETERS FAVOR A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT BUT A TORNADO
THREAT ALSO EXISTS IF LEADING SUPERCELLS CAN DEVELOP. STAY TUNED.

EXPECT SEVERAL HRS OF HEATING DRNG THE MORNING FOR TMPS TO QUICKLY
RISE THRU THE 80S AND TO BTWN 85-90 BY NOON. TMPS BEORE ANY PCPN
DVLPS SHUD TOP OUT IN THE M-U80S ALONG THE ERN SHORE WITH U80S-L90S
W OF THE BAY WITH SOME M90S ACROSS SRN MOST COUNTIES WHERE MORE
HEATING EXPECTED. CAPPED POPS AT 50% ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES
THROUGH 21Z DROPPING OFF TO SLGHT CHC ACROSS THE SOUTH AFTR 18Z.
THIS SCENARIO FAVORS A GFS/SREF SOLN.

MODELS DEPICT SCNDRY SURGE OF MOISTURE (CONVECTIVE COMPLEX) TRACKING
ACROSS NRN HALF OF FA LATE SUN AFTRN/EVE SO BUMPED POPS INTO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY. CHC POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. CHC POPS ALL AREAS AFTR
MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S.

MONDAY IS LOOKING LESS THREATING (SEVERE WISE) AS MODELS FASTER
WITH THE FRONT MOVG OFF THE COAST. DUE TO LINGERING MOISTURE AND
TROFINESS...WILL KEEP SLGHT CHC POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FA THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS WITH CHC POPS ALONG THE COAST...THEN END PCPN
ACROSS WRN HALF OF FA BUT KEEP CHC POPS GOING ALONG THE SERN
COASTAL AREAS THRU THE AFTRN HOURS. SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE PSBL IN
THE AFTRN ACROSS THE WEST WITH A BKN MID/HIGH LVL CLOUD DECK ARND.
TMPS TRICKY GIVEN WEAK NW FLOW. TRENDED TMPS DOWN TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS WITH THIS PACKAGE...85-90.

BNDRY PROGGED TO STALL IVOF GULF STREAM MON NIGHT AND TUE WHILE A
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. KEPT SLGHT CHC
POPS ALONG SERN CSTL AREAS MON NITE. LOWS IN THE 60S...XCPT L70S
SERN CSTL AREAS.

DRY TUESDAY ALONG WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AS DP TMPS DROP INTO THE 50S.
PT TO MSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE L80S...U70S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF DIGS OVR THE MID ATLC REGION TUE NGT
INTO EARLY THU...BEFORE RETROGRADING BACK INTO THE OH AND MS VALLEYS
THU AFTN THRU SAT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OFF THE MID ATLC
CST TUE NGT THRU FRI...THEN DRIFTS BACK TWD THE CST FRI NGT THRU
SAT. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR TUE NGT THRU FRI...THEN HAVE ADDED
SLGT CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT AND SAT. A MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL
DOMINATE THE AREA TUE NGT THRU THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LWR TO MID 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S
TO MID 60S WED AND THU MORNGS...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI
MORNG...AND RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AREA OF CONVECTION SLIDING SE FM SW PA/NRN WV/NW VA TO CONT
TRACKING ESE THROUGH EARLY MRNG HRS W/ SOME WEAKENING AS IT DOES
SO. PTNTL FOR PCPN AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...ESP KRIC-KSBY. A
SECOND AREA OF CONVECTION FCST TO EXIT THE MTNS MID/LT MRNG...AND
TRACK OVR THE RGN MIDDAY INTO THIS EVE (ALSO W/ PSBL BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS/HVY RA). OTRW...SSW WINDS GUSTING TO 15 KT AND SCT-BKN
CLDS XPCD TDA AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W.
THE FRONT IS XPCD TO CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY W/ LO PROB FOR
PCPN AND GUSTY MNLY W WNDS (TO 20 KT). MNLY VFR CONDS MON NGT INTO
WED.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU MON. HI PRES WILL SLIDE
OUT TO SEA TNGT...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE OH VALLEY. THAT
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MID ATLC REGION DURING SUN...THEN MOVE
ACRS THE AREA AND OFF THE CST LATE SUN NGT INTO MON NGT. EXPECT S
WINDS 15 KT OR LESS TNGT...WITH GUSTS TO ABOUT 20 KT ON THE OCEAN.
IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SSW WINDS 10 TO 20 KT
SUN AND SUN NGT. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE W DURING MON...THEN NW
AND N MON NGT INTO TUE MORNG. GENERALLY NNE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS
EXPECTED FOR TUE THRU THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...TMG












000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270624
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
224 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION SUNDAY...THEN CROSSES
THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FINALLY HAVE SEEN CONVECTION OVER ERN/SE VA DIMINISH WITH JUST A
SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER CURRITUCK NC (WHICH WILL
DISSIPATE/BE OUT THE AREA SHORTLY). NW FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE LARGELY
RESPONSIBLE FOR EARLIER ACTIVITY...WILL SLOWLY BECOME MORE FROM
THE WNW OVERNIGHT. NEXT POTENTIAL AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS UPSTREAM
IS WEAKENING ALONG THE APPALACHIANS ALTHOUGH MAY SEE ENOUGH ENERGY
IN THE WARM /HUMID AIRMASS OVERNIGHT TO ADD A 20% POP TO N/NW
COUNTIES. BEHIND THAT...MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE IS PUSHING ESE FROM
THE MID MS VALLEY WITH MCS ONGOING OVER IN/KY BUT THIS SHOULD NOT
REACH THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL AFTER 6 AM. ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS ONLY
SLIGHTLY WITH MOST AREAS HAVING MINS 70-75 F. SKIES AVG MOSTLY
CLEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CHALLENGING FORECAST SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES
WRT TIMING OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PROGGED TO MOVE SE AHEAD OF
STRONG COLD FRONT. NAM SUGGESTS TWO ROUNDS OF CONVECTION (LATE MORN
ERLY AFTN WITH A SECOND ONE IN THE EVENING WHILE GFS/SREF SHOW
SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON LEE TROF BY ERLY AFTN THEN DRIFTING
IT SE BUT EXPANDING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTH BY EVENING AS
SECONDARY S/W AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE NW. SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE
ENTIRE FA OUTLOOKED IN SLIGHT RISK WITH A MDT RISK TO THE W OVER W VA.

PARAMETERS FAVOR A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT BUT A TORNADO
THREAT ALSO EXISTS IF LEADING SUPERCELLS CAN DEVELOP. STAY TUNED.

EXPECT SEVERAL HRS OF HEATING DRNG THE MORNING FOR TMPS TO QUICKLY
RISE THRU THE 80S AND TO BTWN 85-90 BY NOON. TMPS BEORE ANY PCPN
DVLPS SHUD TOP OUT IN THE M-U80S ALONG THE ERN SHORE WITH U80S-L90S
W OF THE BAY WITH SOME M90S ACROSS SRN MOST COUNTIES WHERE MORE
HEATING EXPECTED. CAPPED POPS AT 50% ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES
THROUGH 21Z DROPPING OFF TO SLGHT CHC ACROSS THE SOUTH AFTR 18Z.
THIS SCENARIO FAVORS A GFS/SREF SOLN.

MODELS DEPICT SCNDRY SURGE OF MOISTURE (CONVECTIVE COMPLEX) TRACKING
ACROSS NRN HALF OF FA LATE SUN AFTRN/EVE SO BUMPED POPS INTO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY. CHC POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. CHC POPS ALL AREAS AFTR
MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S.

MONDAY IS LOOKING LESS THREATING (SEVERE WISE) AS MODELS FASTER
WITH THE FRONT MOVG OFF THE COAST. DUE TO LINGERING MOISTURE AND
TROFINESS...WILL KEEP SLGHT CHC POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FA THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS WITH CHC POPS ALONG THE COAST...THEN END PCPN
ACROSS WRN HALF OF FA BUT KEEP CHC POPS GOING ALONG THE SERN
COASTAL AREAS THRU THE AFTRN HOURS. SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE PSBL IN
THE AFTRN ACROSS THE WEST WITH A BKN MID/HIGH LVL CLOUD DECK ARND.
TMPS TRICKY GIVEN WEAK NW FLOW. TRENDED TMPS DOWN TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS WITH THIS PACKAGE...85-90.

BNDRY PROGGED TO STALL IVOF GULF STREAM MON NIGHT AND TUE WHILE A
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. KEPT SLGHT CHC
POPS ALONG SERN CSTL AREAS MON NITE. LOWS IN THE 60S...XCPT L70S
SERN CSTL AREAS.

DRY TUESDAY ALONG WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AS DP TMPS DROP INTO THE 50S.
PT TO MSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE L80S...U70S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF DIGS OVR THE MID ATLC REGION TUE NGT
INTO EARLY THU...BEFORE RETROGRADING BACK INTO THE OH AND MS VALLEYS
THU AFTN THRU SAT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OFF THE MID ATLC
CST TUE NGT THRU FRI...THEN DRIFTS BACK TWD THE CST FRI NGT THRU
SAT. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR TUE NGT THRU FRI...THEN HAVE ADDED
SLGT CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT AND SAT. A MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL
DOMINATE THE AREA TUE NGT THRU THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LWR TO MID 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S
TO MID 60S WED AND THU MORNGS...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI
MORNG...AND RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AREA OF CONVECTION SLIDING SE FM SW PA/NRN WV/NW VA TO CONT
TRACKING ESE THROUGH EARLY MRNG HRS W/ SOME WEAKENING AS IT DOES
SO. PTNTL FOR PCPN AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...ESP KRIC-KSBY. A
SECOND AREA OF CONVECTION FCST TO EXIT THE MTNS MID/LT MRNG...AND
TRACK OVR THE RGN MIDDAY INTO THIS EVE (ALSO W/ PSBL BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS/HVY RA). OTRW...SSW WINDS GUSTING TO 15 KT AND SCT-BKN
CLDS XPCD TDA AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W.
THE FRONT IS XPCD TO CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY W/ LO PROB FOR
PCPN AND GUSTY MNLY W WNDS (TO 20 KT). MNLY VFR CONDS MON NGT INTO
WED.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU MON. HI PRES WILL SLIDE
OUT TO SEA TNGT...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE OH VALLEY. THAT
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MID ATLC REGION DURING SUN...THEN MOVE
ACRS THE AREA AND OFF THE CST LATE SUN NGT INTO MON NGT. EXPECT S
WINDS 15 KT OR LESS TNGT...WITH GUSTS TO ABOUT 20 KT ON THE OCEAN.
IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SSW WINDS 10 TO 20 KT
SUN AND SUN NGT. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE W DURING MON...THEN NW
AND N MON NGT INTO TUE MORNG. GENERALLY NNE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS
EXPECTED FOR TUE THRU THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...TMG













000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270537
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
137 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...WILL
INCREASE TODAY. COLDER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FOCUSED ON TWO SHORTWAVE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ONE OVER MY
AREA AND ONE TO THE WEST. SHORTWAVE OVER MY AREA WILL QUICKLY MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BE NEAR THE EAST COAST.
WESTERN WAVE WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN INDIANA TO SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT. I AM A LITTLE SUSPECT ABOUT THE TRACK OF THE
WESTERN WAVE. CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA IS DIVING MORE
SOUTH THEN EAST. I WOULD THINK THAT THIS WILL DRIVE WESTERN WAVE A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR ACTIVITY TO DIE DOWN
OVERNIGHT HERE AND LESSEN THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY TO
DEVELOP TOWARD DAWN FROM WESTERN WAVE.

LATEST MODEL DATA IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE SEVERE THREAT
TODAY AS PREVIOUS RUNS. A TRIGGER TO GET THINGS ROLLING IS LACKING
AS OVERNIGHT SHORTWAVES HAVE ROBBED THE ATMOSPHERE OF ENERGY. IT
NOW APPEARS THAT THE NEXT MAIN WAVE WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE IN
THE DAY...JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY.
ATMOSPHERE NOT QUITE AS BUOYANT AS PORTRAYED IN PREVIOUS RUNS AND
SHEAR VALUES HAVE ALSO DECREASED. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE
SUNLIGHT...OR THE LACK THERE OFF. MODELS ARE SHOWING A LOT OF
RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE LOWER AND MID-LEVELS LINGERING OVER THE
REGION TODAY. WITH WHAT MODELS ARE DETAILING...IF SEVERE WEATHER
ERUPTS IT LIKELY WILL NOT BE UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY.

THIS IS A COMPLEX AND CONSTANTLY CHANGING SITUATION...DEPENDENT ON
MANY FACTORS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SWING IN BEHIND IT. STORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE EXITING TROUGH ON
MONDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY MONDAY AND WITH LOTS OF CLOUD
COVER...STORM THREAT SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED.

SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

TUESDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND
COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY. WARMER AIR AND THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TOUGH DAY TO FORECAST. FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AREA RIGHT
NOW...WITH MOST OF THE TSRA NOW NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-70. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE THROUGH BY ABOUT 09Z OR SO...WITH IFR
RESTRICTIONS STILL POSSIBLE IN TSRA. THE OHIO VALLEY MCS WILL MISS TO
OUR SOUTH...SO IT APPEARS THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE A RELATIVE
LULL IN ACTIVITY FROM NEAR SUNRISE TO AROUND MIDDAY. VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE.

STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN EVENTS OF TONIGHT PLUS LATEST MODEL
RUNS...THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY BE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. NEVERTHELESS...MAINTAINED VCTS MENTION FOR
MOST TERMINALS FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WILL HOPEFULLY BE
ABLE TO GIVE BETTER TIMING DETAILS IN FUTURE ISSUANCES.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY THRU MON AS A CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270537
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
137 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...WILL
INCREASE TODAY. COLDER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FOCUSED ON TWO SHORTWAVE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ONE OVER MY
AREA AND ONE TO THE WEST. SHORTWAVE OVER MY AREA WILL QUICKLY MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BE NEAR THE EAST COAST.
WESTERN WAVE WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN INDIANA TO SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT. I AM A LITTLE SUSPECT ABOUT THE TRACK OF THE
WESTERN WAVE. CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA IS DIVING MORE
SOUTH THEN EAST. I WOULD THINK THAT THIS WILL DRIVE WESTERN WAVE A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR ACTIVITY TO DIE DOWN
OVERNIGHT HERE AND LESSEN THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY TO
DEVELOP TOWARD DAWN FROM WESTERN WAVE.

LATEST MODEL DATA IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE SEVERE THREAT
TODAY AS PREVIOUS RUNS. A TRIGGER TO GET THINGS ROLLING IS LACKING
AS OVERNIGHT SHORTWAVES HAVE ROBBED THE ATMOSPHERE OF ENERGY. IT
NOW APPEARS THAT THE NEXT MAIN WAVE WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE IN
THE DAY...JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY.
ATMOSPHERE NOT QUITE AS BUOYANT AS PORTRAYED IN PREVIOUS RUNS AND
SHEAR VALUES HAVE ALSO DECREASED. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE
SUNLIGHT...OR THE LACK THERE OFF. MODELS ARE SHOWING A LOT OF
RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE LOWER AND MID-LEVELS LINGERING OVER THE
REGION TODAY. WITH WHAT MODELS ARE DETAILING...IF SEVERE WEATHER
ERUPTS IT LIKELY WILL NOT BE UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY.

THIS IS A COMPLEX AND CONSTANTLY CHANGING SITUATION...DEPENDENT ON
MANY FACTORS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SWING IN BEHIND IT. STORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE EXITING TROUGH ON
MONDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY MONDAY AND WITH LOTS OF CLOUD
COVER...STORM THREAT SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED.

SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

TUESDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND
COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY. WARMER AIR AND THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TOUGH DAY TO FORECAST. FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AREA RIGHT
NOW...WITH MOST OF THE TSRA NOW NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-70. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE THROUGH BY ABOUT 09Z OR SO...WITH IFR
RESTRICTIONS STILL POSSIBLE IN TSRA. THE OHIO VALLEY MCS WILL MISS TO
OUR SOUTH...SO IT APPEARS THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE A RELATIVE
LULL IN ACTIVITY FROM NEAR SUNRISE TO AROUND MIDDAY. VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE.

STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN EVENTS OF TONIGHT PLUS LATEST MODEL
RUNS...THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY BE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. NEVERTHELESS...MAINTAINED VCTS MENTION FOR
MOST TERMINALS FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WILL HOPEFULLY BE
ABLE TO GIVE BETTER TIMING DETAILS IN FUTURE ISSUANCES.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY THRU MON AS A CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270537
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
137 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...WILL
INCREASE TODAY. COLDER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FOCUSED ON TWO SHORTWAVE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ONE OVER MY
AREA AND ONE TO THE WEST. SHORTWAVE OVER MY AREA WILL QUICKLY MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BE NEAR THE EAST COAST.
WESTERN WAVE WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN INDIANA TO SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT. I AM A LITTLE SUSPECT ABOUT THE TRACK OF THE
WESTERN WAVE. CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA IS DIVING MORE
SOUTH THEN EAST. I WOULD THINK THAT THIS WILL DRIVE WESTERN WAVE A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR ACTIVITY TO DIE DOWN
OVERNIGHT HERE AND LESSEN THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY TO
DEVELOP TOWARD DAWN FROM WESTERN WAVE.

LATEST MODEL DATA IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE SEVERE THREAT
TODAY AS PREVIOUS RUNS. A TRIGGER TO GET THINGS ROLLING IS LACKING
AS OVERNIGHT SHORTWAVES HAVE ROBBED THE ATMOSPHERE OF ENERGY. IT
NOW APPEARS THAT THE NEXT MAIN WAVE WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE IN
THE DAY...JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY.
ATMOSPHERE NOT QUITE AS BUOYANT AS PORTRAYED IN PREVIOUS RUNS AND
SHEAR VALUES HAVE ALSO DECREASED. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE
SUNLIGHT...OR THE LACK THERE OFF. MODELS ARE SHOWING A LOT OF
RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE LOWER AND MID-LEVELS LINGERING OVER THE
REGION TODAY. WITH WHAT MODELS ARE DETAILING...IF SEVERE WEATHER
ERUPTS IT LIKELY WILL NOT BE UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY.

THIS IS A COMPLEX AND CONSTANTLY CHANGING SITUATION...DEPENDENT ON
MANY FACTORS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SWING IN BEHIND IT. STORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE EXITING TROUGH ON
MONDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY MONDAY AND WITH LOTS OF CLOUD
COVER...STORM THREAT SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED.

SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

TUESDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND
COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY. WARMER AIR AND THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TOUGH DAY TO FORECAST. FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AREA RIGHT
NOW...WITH MOST OF THE TSRA NOW NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-70. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE THROUGH BY ABOUT 09Z OR SO...WITH IFR
RESTRICTIONS STILL POSSIBLE IN TSRA. THE OHIO VALLEY MCS WILL MISS TO
OUR SOUTH...SO IT APPEARS THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE A RELATIVE
LULL IN ACTIVITY FROM NEAR SUNRISE TO AROUND MIDDAY. VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE.

STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN EVENTS OF TONIGHT PLUS LATEST MODEL
RUNS...THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY BE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. NEVERTHELESS...MAINTAINED VCTS MENTION FOR
MOST TERMINALS FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WILL HOPEFULLY BE
ABLE TO GIVE BETTER TIMING DETAILS IN FUTURE ISSUANCES.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY THRU MON AS A CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270537
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
137 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...WILL
INCREASE TODAY. COLDER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FOCUSED ON TWO SHORTWAVE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ONE OVER MY
AREA AND ONE TO THE WEST. SHORTWAVE OVER MY AREA WILL QUICKLY MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BE NEAR THE EAST COAST.
WESTERN WAVE WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN INDIANA TO SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT. I AM A LITTLE SUSPECT ABOUT THE TRACK OF THE
WESTERN WAVE. CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA IS DIVING MORE
SOUTH THEN EAST. I WOULD THINK THAT THIS WILL DRIVE WESTERN WAVE A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR ACTIVITY TO DIE DOWN
OVERNIGHT HERE AND LESSEN THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY TO
DEVELOP TOWARD DAWN FROM WESTERN WAVE.

LATEST MODEL DATA IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE SEVERE THREAT
TODAY AS PREVIOUS RUNS. A TRIGGER TO GET THINGS ROLLING IS LACKING
AS OVERNIGHT SHORTWAVES HAVE ROBBED THE ATMOSPHERE OF ENERGY. IT
NOW APPEARS THAT THE NEXT MAIN WAVE WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE IN
THE DAY...JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY.
ATMOSPHERE NOT QUITE AS BUOYANT AS PORTRAYED IN PREVIOUS RUNS AND
SHEAR VALUES HAVE ALSO DECREASED. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE
SUNLIGHT...OR THE LACK THERE OFF. MODELS ARE SHOWING A LOT OF
RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE LOWER AND MID-LEVELS LINGERING OVER THE
REGION TODAY. WITH WHAT MODELS ARE DETAILING...IF SEVERE WEATHER
ERUPTS IT LIKELY WILL NOT BE UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY.

THIS IS A COMPLEX AND CONSTANTLY CHANGING SITUATION...DEPENDENT ON
MANY FACTORS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SWING IN BEHIND IT. STORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE EXITING TROUGH ON
MONDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY MONDAY AND WITH LOTS OF CLOUD
COVER...STORM THREAT SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED.

SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

TUESDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND
COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY. WARMER AIR AND THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TOUGH DAY TO FORECAST. FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AREA RIGHT
NOW...WITH MOST OF THE TSRA NOW NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-70. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE THROUGH BY ABOUT 09Z OR SO...WITH IFR
RESTRICTIONS STILL POSSIBLE IN TSRA. THE OHIO VALLEY MCS WILL MISS TO
OUR SOUTH...SO IT APPEARS THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE A RELATIVE
LULL IN ACTIVITY FROM NEAR SUNRISE TO AROUND MIDDAY. VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE.

STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN EVENTS OF TONIGHT PLUS LATEST MODEL
RUNS...THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY BE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. NEVERTHELESS...MAINTAINED VCTS MENTION FOR
MOST TERMINALS FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WILL HOPEFULLY BE
ABLE TO GIVE BETTER TIMING DETAILS IN FUTURE ISSUANCES.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY THRU MON AS A CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270501 AAD
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
101 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...WILL
INCREASE TODAY. COLDER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FOCUSED ON TWO SHORTWAVE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ONE OVER MY
AREA AND ONE TO THE WEST. SHORTWAVE OVER MY AREA WILL QUICKLY MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BE NEAR THE EAST COAST.
WESTERN WAVE WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN INDIANA TO SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT. I AM A LITTLE SUSPECT ABOUT THE TRACK OF THE
WESTERN WAVE. CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA IS DIVING MORE
SOUTH THEN EAST. I WOULD THINK THAT THIS WILL DRIVE WESTERN WAVE A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR ACTIVITY TO DIE DOWN
OVERNIGHT HERE AND LESSEN THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY TO
DEVELOP TOWARD DAWN FROM WESTERN WAVE.

LATEST MODEL DATA IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE SEVERE THREAT
TODAY AS PREVIOUS RUNS. A TRIGGER TO GET THINGS ROLLING IS LACKING
AS OVERNIGHT SHORTWAVES HAVE ROBBED THE ATMOSPHERE OF ENERGY. IT
NOW APPEARS THAT THE NEXT MAIN WAVE WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE IN
THE DAY...JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY.
ATMOSPHERE NOT QUITE AS BUOYANT AS PORTRAYED IN PREVIOUS RUNS AND
SHEAR VALUES HAVE ALSO DECREASED. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE
SUNLIGHT...OR THE LACK THERE OFF. MODELS ARE SHOWING A LOT OF
RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE LOWER AND MID-LEVELS LINGERING OVER THE
REGION TODAY. WITH WHAT MODELS ARE DETAILING...IF SEVERE WEATHER
ERUPTS IT LIKELY WILL NOT BE UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY.

THIS IS A COMPLEX AND CONSTANTLY CHANGING SITUATION...DEPENDENT ON
MANY FACTORS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SWING IN BEHIND IT. STORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE EXITING TROUGH ON
MONDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY MONDAY AND WITH LOTS OF CLOUD
COVER...STORM THREAT SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED.

SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

TUESDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND
COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY. WARMER AIR AND THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD. WENT WITH A GENERAL VCSH MENTION AND TRIED TO TEMPO
SHOWERS/STORMS AS NEEDED OVERNIGHT AS STORMS MOVING SOUTH FROM
LAKE ERIE AND THE MCS OVER IN/IL APPROACH. LOOKING AT DOWNSTREAM
OBS OVER WESTERN OHIO...MANY TAF SITES MAY EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS
FOR A PERIOD OVERNIGHT. OPTED TO MENTION THIS ACROSS THE BOARD BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MAKE IT PREVAILING EVERYWHERE.

WHILE CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TO VFR EVERYWHERE TOMORROW
MORNING...ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES. WILL MAINTAIN THE VCTS
MENTION FOR NOW CONSIDERING THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING BUT
EXPECT VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL OCCUR AT ANY SITE THAT ENCOUNTERS A
T-STORM.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY THRU MON AS A CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270501 AAD
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
101 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...WILL
INCREASE TODAY. COLDER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FOCUSED ON TWO SHORTWAVE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ONE OVER MY
AREA AND ONE TO THE WEST. SHORTWAVE OVER MY AREA WILL QUICKLY MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BE NEAR THE EAST COAST.
WESTERN WAVE WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN INDIANA TO SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT. I AM A LITTLE SUSPECT ABOUT THE TRACK OF THE
WESTERN WAVE. CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA IS DIVING MORE
SOUTH THEN EAST. I WOULD THINK THAT THIS WILL DRIVE WESTERN WAVE A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR ACTIVITY TO DIE DOWN
OVERNIGHT HERE AND LESSEN THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY TO
DEVELOP TOWARD DAWN FROM WESTERN WAVE.

LATEST MODEL DATA IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE SEVERE THREAT
TODAY AS PREVIOUS RUNS. A TRIGGER TO GET THINGS ROLLING IS LACKING
AS OVERNIGHT SHORTWAVES HAVE ROBBED THE ATMOSPHERE OF ENERGY. IT
NOW APPEARS THAT THE NEXT MAIN WAVE WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE IN
THE DAY...JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY.
ATMOSPHERE NOT QUITE AS BUOYANT AS PORTRAYED IN PREVIOUS RUNS AND
SHEAR VALUES HAVE ALSO DECREASED. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE
SUNLIGHT...OR THE LACK THERE OFF. MODELS ARE SHOWING A LOT OF
RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE LOWER AND MID-LEVELS LINGERING OVER THE
REGION TODAY. WITH WHAT MODELS ARE DETAILING...IF SEVERE WEATHER
ERUPTS IT LIKELY WILL NOT BE UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY.

THIS IS A COMPLEX AND CONSTANTLY CHANGING SITUATION...DEPENDENT ON
MANY FACTORS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SWING IN BEHIND IT. STORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE EXITING TROUGH ON
MONDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY MONDAY AND WITH LOTS OF CLOUD
COVER...STORM THREAT SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED.

SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

TUESDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND
COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY. WARMER AIR AND THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD. WENT WITH A GENERAL VCSH MENTION AND TRIED TO TEMPO
SHOWERS/STORMS AS NEEDED OVERNIGHT AS STORMS MOVING SOUTH FROM
LAKE ERIE AND THE MCS OVER IN/IL APPROACH. LOOKING AT DOWNSTREAM
OBS OVER WESTERN OHIO...MANY TAF SITES MAY EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS
FOR A PERIOD OVERNIGHT. OPTED TO MENTION THIS ACROSS THE BOARD BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MAKE IT PREVAILING EVERYWHERE.

WHILE CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TO VFR EVERYWHERE TOMORROW
MORNING...ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES. WILL MAINTAIN THE VCTS
MENTION FOR NOW CONSIDERING THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING BUT
EXPECT VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL OCCUR AT ANY SITE THAT ENCOUNTERS A
T-STORM.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY THRU MON AS A CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270146
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
946 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION SUNDAY...THEN CROSSES
THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
FINALLY HAVE SEEN CONVECTION OVER ERN/SE VA DIMINISH WITH JUST A
SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER CURRITUCK NC (WHICH WILL
DISSIPATE/BE OUT THE AREA SHORTLY). NW FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE LARGELY
RESPONSIBLE FOR EARLIER ACTIVITY...WILL SLOWLY BECOME MORE FROM
THE WNW OVERNIGHT. NEXT POTENTIAL AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS UPSTREAM
IS WEAKENING ALONG THE APPALACHIANS ALTHOUGH MAY SEE ENOUGH ENERGY
IN THE WARM /HUMID AIRMASS OVERNIGHT TO ADD A 20% POP TO N/NW
COUNTIES. BEHIND THAT...MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE IS PUSHING ESE FROM
THE MID MS VALLEY WITH MCS ONGOING OVER IN/KY BUT THIS SHOULD NOT
REACH THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL AFTER 6 AM. ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS ONLY
SLIGHTLY WITH MOST AREAS HAVING MINS 70-75 F. SKIES AVG MOSTLY
CLEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CHALLENGING FORECAST SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES
WRT TIMING OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PROGGED TO MOVE SE AHEAD OF
STRONG COLD FRONT. NAM SUGGESTS TWO ROUNDS OF CONVECTION (LATE MORN
ERLY AFTN WITH A SECOND ONE IN THE EVENING WHILE GFS/SREF SHOW
SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON LEE TROF BY ERLY AFTN THEN DRIFTING
IT SE BUT EXPANDING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTH BY EVENING AS
SECONDARY S/W AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE NW. SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE
ENTIRE FA OUTLOOKED IN SLIGHT RISK WITH A MDT RISK TO THE W OVER W VA.

PARAMETERS FAVOR A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT BUT A TORNADO
THREAT ALSO EXISTS IF LEADING SUPERCELLS CAN DEVELOP. STAY TUNED.

EXPECT SEVERAL HRS OF HEATING DRNG THE MORNING FOR TMPS TO QUICKLY
RISE THRU THE 80S AND TO BTWN 85-90 BY NOON. TMPS BEORE ANY PCPN
DVLPS SHUD TOP OUT IN THE M-U80S ALONG THE ERN SHORE WITH U80S-L90S
W OF THE BAY WITH SOME M90S ACROSS SRN MOST COUNTIES WHERE MORE
HEATING EXPECTED. CAPPED POPS AT 50% ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES
THROUGH 21Z DROPPING OFF TO SLGHT CHC ACROSS THE SOUTH AFTR 18Z.
THIS SCENARIO FAVORS A GFS/SREF SOLN.

MODELS DEPICT SCNDRY SURGE OF MOISTURE (CONVECTIVE COMPLEX) TRACKING
ACROSS NRN HALF OF FA LATE SUN AFTRN/EVE SO BUMPED POPS INTO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY. CHC POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. CHC POPS ALL AREAS AFTR
MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S.

MONDAY IS LOOKING LESS THREATING (SEVERE WISE) AS MODELS FASTER
WITH THE FRONT MOVG OFF THE COAST. DUE TO LINGERING MOISTURE AND
TROFINESS...WILL KEEP SLGHT CHC POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FA THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS WITH CHC POPS ALONG THE COAST...THEN END PCPN
ACROSS WRN HALF OF FA BUT KEEP CHC POPS GOING ALONG THE SERN
COASTAL AREAS THRU THE AFTRN HOURS. SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE PSBL IN
THE AFTRN ACROSS THE WEST WITH A BKN MID/HIGH LVL CLOUD DECK ARND.
TMPS TRICKY GIVEN WEAK NW FLOW. TRENDED TMPS DOWN TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS WITH THIS PACKAGE...85-90.

BNDRY PROGGED TO STALL IVOF GULF STREAM MON NIGHT AND TUE WHILE A
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. KEPT SLGHT CHC
POPS ALONG SERN CSTL AREAS MON NITE. LOWS IN THE 60S...XCPT L70S
SERN CSTL AREAS.

DRY TUESDAY ALONG WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AS DP TMPS DROP INTO THE 50S.
PT TO MSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE L80S...U70S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF DIGS OVR THE MID ATLC REGION TUE NGT
INTO EARLY THU...BEFORE RETROGRADING BACK INTO THE OH AND MS VALLEYS
THU AFTN THRU SAT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OFF THE MID ATLC
CST TUE NGT THRU FRI...THEN DRIFTS BACK TWD THE CST FRI NGT THRU
SAT. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR TUE NGT THRU FRI...THEN HAVE ADDED
SLGT CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT AND SAT. A MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL
DOMINATE THE AREA TUE NGT THRU THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LWR TO MID 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S
TO MID 60S WED AND THU MORNGS...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI
MORNG...AND RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK SFC HI PRES OFF THE CST...WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING ALONG THIS TROUGH...AIDED BY
PASSING MID-LEVEL ENERGY. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE 18Z TAF PERIOD...ASIDE FROM A PASSING SHOWER LIMITING
VISIBILITIES AT KSBY THROUGH 20Z.

S-SW WINDS GUSTING TO 15 KT AND SCT-BKN CLOUDS EXPECTED SUN AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W. POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY CONVECTION DURING THE AFTN THROUGH THE
EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU MON. HI PRES WILL SLIDE
OUT TO SEA TNGT...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE OH VALLEY. THAT
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MID ATLC REGION DURING SUN...THEN MOVE
ACRS THE AREA AND OFF THE CST LATE SUN NGT INTO MON NGT. EXPECT S
WINDS 15 KT OR LESS TNGT...WITH GUSTS TO ABOUT 20 KT ON THE OCEAN.
IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SSW WINDS 10 TO 20 KT
SUN AND SUN NGT. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE W DURING MON...THEN NW
AND N MON NGT INTO TUE MORNG. GENERALLY NNE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS
EXPECTED FOR TUE THRU THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...TMG






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270146
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
946 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION SUNDAY...THEN CROSSES
THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
FINALLY HAVE SEEN CONVECTION OVER ERN/SE VA DIMINISH WITH JUST A
SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER CURRITUCK NC (WHICH WILL
DISSIPATE/BE OUT THE AREA SHORTLY). NW FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE LARGELY
RESPONSIBLE FOR EARLIER ACTIVITY...WILL SLOWLY BECOME MORE FROM
THE WNW OVERNIGHT. NEXT POTENTIAL AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS UPSTREAM
IS WEAKENING ALONG THE APPALACHIANS ALTHOUGH MAY SEE ENOUGH ENERGY
IN THE WARM /HUMID AIRMASS OVERNIGHT TO ADD A 20% POP TO N/NW
COUNTIES. BEHIND THAT...MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE IS PUSHING ESE FROM
THE MID MS VALLEY WITH MCS ONGOING OVER IN/KY BUT THIS SHOULD NOT
REACH THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL AFTER 6 AM. ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS ONLY
SLIGHTLY WITH MOST AREAS HAVING MINS 70-75 F. SKIES AVG MOSTLY
CLEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CHALLENGING FORECAST SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES
WRT TIMING OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PROGGED TO MOVE SE AHEAD OF
STRONG COLD FRONT. NAM SUGGESTS TWO ROUNDS OF CONVECTION (LATE MORN
ERLY AFTN WITH A SECOND ONE IN THE EVENING WHILE GFS/SREF SHOW
SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON LEE TROF BY ERLY AFTN THEN DRIFTING
IT SE BUT EXPANDING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTH BY EVENING AS
SECONDARY S/W AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE NW. SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE
ENTIRE FA OUTLOOKED IN SLIGHT RISK WITH A MDT RISK TO THE W OVER W VA.

PARAMETERS FAVOR A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT BUT A TORNADO
THREAT ALSO EXISTS IF LEADING SUPERCELLS CAN DEVELOP. STAY TUNED.

EXPECT SEVERAL HRS OF HEATING DRNG THE MORNING FOR TMPS TO QUICKLY
RISE THRU THE 80S AND TO BTWN 85-90 BY NOON. TMPS BEORE ANY PCPN
DVLPS SHUD TOP OUT IN THE M-U80S ALONG THE ERN SHORE WITH U80S-L90S
W OF THE BAY WITH SOME M90S ACROSS SRN MOST COUNTIES WHERE MORE
HEATING EXPECTED. CAPPED POPS AT 50% ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES
THROUGH 21Z DROPPING OFF TO SLGHT CHC ACROSS THE SOUTH AFTR 18Z.
THIS SCENARIO FAVORS A GFS/SREF SOLN.

MODELS DEPICT SCNDRY SURGE OF MOISTURE (CONVECTIVE COMPLEX) TRACKING
ACROSS NRN HALF OF FA LATE SUN AFTRN/EVE SO BUMPED POPS INTO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY. CHC POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. CHC POPS ALL AREAS AFTR
MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S.

MONDAY IS LOOKING LESS THREATING (SEVERE WISE) AS MODELS FASTER
WITH THE FRONT MOVG OFF THE COAST. DUE TO LINGERING MOISTURE AND
TROFINESS...WILL KEEP SLGHT CHC POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FA THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS WITH CHC POPS ALONG THE COAST...THEN END PCPN
ACROSS WRN HALF OF FA BUT KEEP CHC POPS GOING ALONG THE SERN
COASTAL AREAS THRU THE AFTRN HOURS. SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE PSBL IN
THE AFTRN ACROSS THE WEST WITH A BKN MID/HIGH LVL CLOUD DECK ARND.
TMPS TRICKY GIVEN WEAK NW FLOW. TRENDED TMPS DOWN TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS WITH THIS PACKAGE...85-90.

BNDRY PROGGED TO STALL IVOF GULF STREAM MON NIGHT AND TUE WHILE A
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. KEPT SLGHT CHC
POPS ALONG SERN CSTL AREAS MON NITE. LOWS IN THE 60S...XCPT L70S
SERN CSTL AREAS.

DRY TUESDAY ALONG WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AS DP TMPS DROP INTO THE 50S.
PT TO MSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE L80S...U70S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF DIGS OVR THE MID ATLC REGION TUE NGT
INTO EARLY THU...BEFORE RETROGRADING BACK INTO THE OH AND MS VALLEYS
THU AFTN THRU SAT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OFF THE MID ATLC
CST TUE NGT THRU FRI...THEN DRIFTS BACK TWD THE CST FRI NGT THRU
SAT. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR TUE NGT THRU FRI...THEN HAVE ADDED
SLGT CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT AND SAT. A MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL
DOMINATE THE AREA TUE NGT THRU THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LWR TO MID 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S
TO MID 60S WED AND THU MORNGS...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI
MORNG...AND RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK SFC HI PRES OFF THE CST...WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING ALONG THIS TROUGH...AIDED BY
PASSING MID-LEVEL ENERGY. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE 18Z TAF PERIOD...ASIDE FROM A PASSING SHOWER LIMITING
VISIBILITIES AT KSBY THROUGH 20Z.

S-SW WINDS GUSTING TO 15 KT AND SCT-BKN CLOUDS EXPECTED SUN AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W. POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY CONVECTION DURING THE AFTN THROUGH THE
EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU MON. HI PRES WILL SLIDE
OUT TO SEA TNGT...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE OH VALLEY. THAT
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MID ATLC REGION DURING SUN...THEN MOVE
ACRS THE AREA AND OFF THE CST LATE SUN NGT INTO MON NGT. EXPECT S
WINDS 15 KT OR LESS TNGT...WITH GUSTS TO ABOUT 20 KT ON THE OCEAN.
IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SSW WINDS 10 TO 20 KT
SUN AND SUN NGT. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE W DURING MON...THEN NW
AND N MON NGT INTO TUE MORNG. GENERALLY NNE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS
EXPECTED FOR TUE THRU THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...TMG







000
FXUS61 KPHI 270135
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
935 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT, BEFORE
LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT INTO
NEW ENGLAND MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE EAST COAST FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE WNW UPPER FLOW WILL BRING
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO WRN/CNTRL PA DOWN INTO MD OVERNIGHT.
THE PCPN MAY BRUSH THE ERN SHORE COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. A FEW OF
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING MORE PCPN DEVELOPING TOWARDS DAWN AND
MOVING ACROSS ERN PA/NJ. POPS HAVE ONLY BEEN SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED
THIS EVENING. THE TREND TOWARD HIGHER POPS SUN MORNING WAS KEPT IN
FROM BEFORE. FEW IF ANY CHANGES WERE MADE TO TEMPS/DEW POINTS OR
WINDS FOR THE UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES FOR SUNDAY AS OUR RUN
OF DRY WEEKEND WEATHER REALLY TAKES A HIT. NOW COMES THE FORECAST
PROBLEMS OF SHORT WAVE STRENGTH AND THEIR EFFECT ON THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER. HERE OUR CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN AVERAGE BASED ON THIS
MORNING`S OUTCOME.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS INITIATING AN MCS IN EASTERN NEBRASKA AS
WE TYPE. THIS IS THE ONE THAT THE GFS TAKES TO THE NTH DEGREE ON
SUNDAY MORNING AND MAKES FOLLOWING ITS MASS FIELDS FOR THE REST OF
SUNDAY IMPOSSIBLE. THE GENERAL IDEA APPEARS CORRECT. BUT DOES THIS
SHORT WAVE ARRIVE TOO SOON BEFORE INSTABILITY CAN INCREASE
ADEQUATELY FOR SEVERE AND STABILIZE US "SOMEWHAT"? DOES THE
CONVECTION MUDDY THE CONVECTIVE WATERS FOR THE REAL DEAL COMING
OUT OF EASTERN CANADA? DOES THE PREDECESSOR SHORT WAVE LINGER TOO
LONG DURING THE EARLY MORNING? THE FCST BULK SHEAR IS WELL WITHIN
RANGE OF SEVERE AT 30-40KTS. THE QUESTION BECOMES ABOUT AIR MASS
RECOVERY OR PURITY AROUND THESE SHORT WAVES. WE DONT HAVE THE
ANSWER YET. THE SUNNIER SUNDAY IS, THE TRULY STRONGER THE
CONVECTION WILL BECOME. REGARDLESS, A MORE THAN ADEQUATE WIND
FIELD IS IN PLACE (ANOMALOUSLY STRONG FOR LATE JULY) AND WE WILL
CONTINUE THE ENHANCED WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS STARTING DURING
THE AFTERNOON. CAN GGEM AND UKMET TIMING WOULD GIVE OUR CWA A
HIGHER CHANCE FOR SEVERE. GFS/ECMWF TIMING AT LEAST THRU THE
DAYTIME HOURS WOULD BE LESS. POPS WERE LEFT AS LIKELY WITH AN
INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING PROGRESS. DONT WANT TO FORGO THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT, BUT
WITH A FASTER OVERALL WIND FIELD WOULD HAVE TO SEE TRAINING TO
HAVE ANY FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO CLOUD COVER AND A DOWNWARD TREND TO THE
GFS THERMAL FIELDS, WE TENDED TO LEAN TOWARD THE LOWER GFS MOS FOR
MAX TEMPS. PRETTY CLOSE TO CONTINUITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WET START TO THE LONG TERM, FOLLOWED BY A PROLONGED DRY PERIOD.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT, WE EXPECT AN INITIAL SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE EVENING AND PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA
OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH PENNSYLVANIAN INTO NEW YORK.
MEANWHILE, SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL SLIDE ACROSS
THE AREA WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW MOVES
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL KEEP
A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. PW
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO 1.5-1.75 INCHES EARLY IN THE
NIGHT, SO A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, AS THE NIGHT
MOVES ON, THE PW VALUES DROP, SO HEAVY RAIN WILL BECOME LESS LIKELY.

ON MONDAY, THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND,
EVENTUALLY PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AND OFF THE EAST
COAST. PW VALUES MAY REBOUND CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES, BUT OVERALL, IT
LOOKS DRIER THAN THE DAY LEADING UP. STILL, WITH THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGING CLOSE BY OR OVERHEAD, THERE WILL REMAIN THE CHANCE
FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY UP NORTH
CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE TROUGH. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE AND
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT, BUT ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
END BY MIDNIGHT.

AFTER THIS WET PERIOD, WE THEN ENTER INTO A DRY PERIOD FOR MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. PW VALUES DROP TO AN INCH OR LOWER FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT MAY RETURN TO 1-1.25 INCHES FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION,
AND NO SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION. IT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISING IF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY, BUT CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH AT THIS TIME
THAT WE DID NOT INCLUDE THEM FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ONLY HAS A
SLIGHT CHANCE AT THIS TIME.

AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WE GET MORE SOLID RETURN OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. WE ALSO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF VORTICITY IMPULSES
AFFECTING OUR AREA WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH DEEPENS TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

DECIDED TO RETAIN THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY
SUNDAY THAT WERE IN THE PREVIOUS TAFS. CONFID IN THIS IS LOW.
MOSTLY SRLY WINDS OVERNIGHT AND VFR CONDITIONS EARLY...THEN SOME
MVFR FOG POSSIBLE.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SHOWER THREAT, PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS ARE PREDICTED TO RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS BY THE MIDDLE
OF SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN TODAY
AND SLIGHTLY MORE FROM THE WEST WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING 10 TO 15
KNOTS.

MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS LIKELY EITHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE ABOUT OCCURRENCE, IT IS
LOWER AS TO TIMING. PLEASE LOOK FOR FURTHER UPDATES IN FUTURE
TAFS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY, WHICH COULD REDUCE
CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR OR IFR.

MONDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH COULD REDUCE
CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR OR IFR...OTHERWISE, VFR EXPECTED. GUSTY SW-W
WINDS 20-25 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES IN MARINE PRODUCTS. THE TREND FOR
WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE HAS BEEN DOWNWARD FROM RECENT RUNS THROUGH
SUNDAY DAY. THE ATTENDANT FCST LLJ IS WEAKER. COUPLED WITH WARMER
AIR OVER COOLER WATER DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY THAT EITHER WINDS OR
SEAS (ON THE OCEAN) WILL MAKE CRITERIA THROUGH THE DAY. THE GREATER
CONCERN IS MORE SHORT FUSED IN NATURE WITH SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
TYPE STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SEAS MAY BUILD CLOSE TO 5
FEET, WHICH MAY REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WINDS MAY INCREASE
TO 20-25 KNOTS AS WELL.

MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY
NIGHT, THEN SUBSIDE AND REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...GIGI/ROBERTSON/PO
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON






000
FXUS61 KPHI 270135
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
935 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT, BEFORE
LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT INTO
NEW ENGLAND MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE EAST COAST FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE WNW UPPER FLOW WILL BRING
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO WRN/CNTRL PA DOWN INTO MD OVERNIGHT.
THE PCPN MAY BRUSH THE ERN SHORE COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. A FEW OF
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING MORE PCPN DEVELOPING TOWARDS DAWN AND
MOVING ACROSS ERN PA/NJ. POPS HAVE ONLY BEEN SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED
THIS EVENING. THE TREND TOWARD HIGHER POPS SUN MORNING WAS KEPT IN
FROM BEFORE. FEW IF ANY CHANGES WERE MADE TO TEMPS/DEW POINTS OR
WINDS FOR THE UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES FOR SUNDAY AS OUR RUN
OF DRY WEEKEND WEATHER REALLY TAKES A HIT. NOW COMES THE FORECAST
PROBLEMS OF SHORT WAVE STRENGTH AND THEIR EFFECT ON THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER. HERE OUR CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN AVERAGE BASED ON THIS
MORNING`S OUTCOME.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS INITIATING AN MCS IN EASTERN NEBRASKA AS
WE TYPE. THIS IS THE ONE THAT THE GFS TAKES TO THE NTH DEGREE ON
SUNDAY MORNING AND MAKES FOLLOWING ITS MASS FIELDS FOR THE REST OF
SUNDAY IMPOSSIBLE. THE GENERAL IDEA APPEARS CORRECT. BUT DOES THIS
SHORT WAVE ARRIVE TOO SOON BEFORE INSTABILITY CAN INCREASE
ADEQUATELY FOR SEVERE AND STABILIZE US "SOMEWHAT"? DOES THE
CONVECTION MUDDY THE CONVECTIVE WATERS FOR THE REAL DEAL COMING
OUT OF EASTERN CANADA? DOES THE PREDECESSOR SHORT WAVE LINGER TOO
LONG DURING THE EARLY MORNING? THE FCST BULK SHEAR IS WELL WITHIN
RANGE OF SEVERE AT 30-40KTS. THE QUESTION BECOMES ABOUT AIR MASS
RECOVERY OR PURITY AROUND THESE SHORT WAVES. WE DONT HAVE THE
ANSWER YET. THE SUNNIER SUNDAY IS, THE TRULY STRONGER THE
CONVECTION WILL BECOME. REGARDLESS, A MORE THAN ADEQUATE WIND
FIELD IS IN PLACE (ANOMALOUSLY STRONG FOR LATE JULY) AND WE WILL
CONTINUE THE ENHANCED WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS STARTING DURING
THE AFTERNOON. CAN GGEM AND UKMET TIMING WOULD GIVE OUR CWA A
HIGHER CHANCE FOR SEVERE. GFS/ECMWF TIMING AT LEAST THRU THE
DAYTIME HOURS WOULD BE LESS. POPS WERE LEFT AS LIKELY WITH AN
INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING PROGRESS. DONT WANT TO FORGO THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT, BUT
WITH A FASTER OVERALL WIND FIELD WOULD HAVE TO SEE TRAINING TO
HAVE ANY FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO CLOUD COVER AND A DOWNWARD TREND TO THE
GFS THERMAL FIELDS, WE TENDED TO LEAN TOWARD THE LOWER GFS MOS FOR
MAX TEMPS. PRETTY CLOSE TO CONTINUITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WET START TO THE LONG TERM, FOLLOWED BY A PROLONGED DRY PERIOD.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT, WE EXPECT AN INITIAL SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE EVENING AND PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA
OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH PENNSYLVANIAN INTO NEW YORK.
MEANWHILE, SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL SLIDE ACROSS
THE AREA WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW MOVES
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL KEEP
A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. PW
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO 1.5-1.75 INCHES EARLY IN THE
NIGHT, SO A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, AS THE NIGHT
MOVES ON, THE PW VALUES DROP, SO HEAVY RAIN WILL BECOME LESS LIKELY.

ON MONDAY, THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND,
EVENTUALLY PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AND OFF THE EAST
COAST. PW VALUES MAY REBOUND CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES, BUT OVERALL, IT
LOOKS DRIER THAN THE DAY LEADING UP. STILL, WITH THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGING CLOSE BY OR OVERHEAD, THERE WILL REMAIN THE CHANCE
FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY UP NORTH
CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE TROUGH. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE AND
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT, BUT ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
END BY MIDNIGHT.

AFTER THIS WET PERIOD, WE THEN ENTER INTO A DRY PERIOD FOR MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. PW VALUES DROP TO AN INCH OR LOWER FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT MAY RETURN TO 1-1.25 INCHES FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION,
AND NO SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION. IT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISING IF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY, BUT CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH AT THIS TIME
THAT WE DID NOT INCLUDE THEM FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ONLY HAS A
SLIGHT CHANCE AT THIS TIME.

AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WE GET MORE SOLID RETURN OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. WE ALSO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF VORTICITY IMPULSES
AFFECTING OUR AREA WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH DEEPENS TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

DECIDED TO RETAIN THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY
SUNDAY THAT WERE IN THE PREVIOUS TAFS. CONFID IN THIS IS LOW.
MOSTLY SRLY WINDS OVERNIGHT AND VFR CONDITIONS EARLY...THEN SOME
MVFR FOG POSSIBLE.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SHOWER THREAT, PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS ARE PREDICTED TO RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS BY THE MIDDLE
OF SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN TODAY
AND SLIGHTLY MORE FROM THE WEST WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING 10 TO 15
KNOTS.

MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS LIKELY EITHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE ABOUT OCCURRENCE, IT IS
LOWER AS TO TIMING. PLEASE LOOK FOR FURTHER UPDATES IN FUTURE
TAFS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY, WHICH COULD REDUCE
CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR OR IFR.

MONDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH COULD REDUCE
CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR OR IFR...OTHERWISE, VFR EXPECTED. GUSTY SW-W
WINDS 20-25 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES IN MARINE PRODUCTS. THE TREND FOR
WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE HAS BEEN DOWNWARD FROM RECENT RUNS THROUGH
SUNDAY DAY. THE ATTENDANT FCST LLJ IS WEAKER. COUPLED WITH WARMER
AIR OVER COOLER WATER DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY THAT EITHER WINDS OR
SEAS (ON THE OCEAN) WILL MAKE CRITERIA THROUGH THE DAY. THE GREATER
CONCERN IS MORE SHORT FUSED IN NATURE WITH SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
TYPE STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SEAS MAY BUILD CLOSE TO 5
FEET, WHICH MAY REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WINDS MAY INCREASE
TO 20-25 KNOTS AS WELL.

MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY
NIGHT, THEN SUBSIDE AND REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...GIGI/ROBERTSON/PO
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON







000
FXUS61 KLWX 270114
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
914 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. A REINFORCING
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WE WILL BE WATCHING MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NEXT 24 OR SO HOURS.

CLOSEST UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TO AFFECT THE CWA WAS MOVING INTO THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AT 01Z. CONVECTION WAS STRONGER WHEN IT WAS OVER
OH/WV AND HAS WEAKENED SOME OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. MODELS
INCLUDING HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO HANDLE
NEAR TERM CONVECTION VERY WELL THIS EVENING. MOST RECENT RUNS OF
THE HRRR HAVE LATCHED ONTO UPSTREAM CONVECTION BUT HRRR HAS
CONSISTENTLY BEEN DISSIPATING CONVECTION WHICH HASN/T HAPPENED
YET. ENVIRONMENT IS NOT SUPPORTIVE FOR SEVERE WX AS IT WAS IN OH
/AND THE SUN HAS NOW SET/...YET SHORTWAVE AND WARM ADVECTION WILL
LIKELY BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN SOME CONVECTION FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE
MORE HOURS INTO AT LEAST WESTERN MARYLAND...THE EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA PANHANDLE AND INTO THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY OF VIRGINIA.
WHILE SEVERE WX IS NOT EXPECTED...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR. WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTION LASTS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IS UNCERTAIN. CURRENT FORECAST LOWERS POPS
AT THIS POINT AND WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS IN
CASE LATE EVENING POPS NEED TO BE INCREASED FURTHER DOWNSTREAM.

IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE/EVENING
CONVECTION...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MAY PROMOTE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING CONVECTION AND POPS RAMP UP
/OR RE-RAMP UP/ FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THIS TIME. GIVEN TIME OF
DAY...SEVERE WX IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS ROUND EITHER HOWEVER
LOCALLY STRONG STORMS CAN/T BE RULED OUT.

A THIRD AND POSSIBLY STRONGEST SHORTWAVE /ALONG WITH MULTIPLE LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARIES/ THEN LOOKS TO PRODUCE MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS FROM POTENTIAL
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION MAY HINDER INSTABILITY SLIGHTLY...BUT
EXPECTATION IS FOR ENOUGH OF A WINDOW FOR BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO
OCCUR TO CONTRIBUTE TO 1-2K J/KG CAPE COINCIDENT WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
LIKELY IN EXCESS OF 40 KT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A WIDESPREAD
AND/OR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
ALL SEVERE HAZARD TYPES POSSIBLE INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...FLASH FLOODING AND ALSO ISOLATED TORANDOES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MID-ATLANTIC. SHOWERS SHOULD BE OUT OF
THE REGION BY SUNRISE ON MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OVER THE PA MONDAY AND COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A CU FIELD ACROSS THE AREA.
SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS DUE TO AN INVERTED V
SIGNATURE WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE AREA FROM
CANADA...RESULTING TO MUCH DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. SUBSIDENCE WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND DRY AIR
IN THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OFFSHORE LATER IN THE
WEEK AS ANOTHER SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE TAFS REVOLVES AROUND POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. FIRST SHORTWAVE LIKELY BRINGS SHRA OR TSRA TO
MRB AND PERHAPS EVEN CHO IN THE 02Z-04Z WINDOW TONIGHT.
EXPECTATION IS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO WEAKEN/DISSIPATE LATER THIS
EVENING AND NOT LAST MUCH FURTHER EAST. BUT HIGH RES GUIDANCE HAS
NOT HANDLED TRENDS WELL AND THIS PROVIDES UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
EASTWARD EXTENT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHRA OR TSRA LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND THEN A THIRD IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE
TSRA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIRD ROUND MAY BE THE
STRONGEST WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WESTERLY WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FROPA
MONDAY. VFR MON NIGHT-WED W/ NW FLOW 10-20 KTS...GUSTY MON NIGHT
INTO TUE THEN DECREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS OCCURRING UP THE BAY AND IS EXPECTED TO CHANNEL
FOR LOW END SCA WINDS TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MAY CONTAIN LOW VIS
IN HEAVY RAIN AND ALSO STRONG WINDS /AND EVEN ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS/
WHICH WOULD REQUIRE SMW/S.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY MORNING AND SCA WILL BE
LIKELY. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN GUSTY NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
PRESSURE SURGE BEHIND COLD FROPA MON EVE...SUBSIDING TUE THROUGH
THU.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOUTHERLY WIND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES. MAIN
CONCERN FOR THE NEXT HIGH TIDE CYCLE WILL BE AROUND ANNAPOLIS...WITH
A HIGH TIDE TIME OF 623 AM AT THE US NAVAL ACADEMY. ANOMALY THERE IS
AROUND 3/4 FT ABOVE. IF IT HOLDS THIS WOULD BRING WATER LEVELS ABOVE
THE MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLD. IT COULD EVEN GO UP A TAD WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW. THEREFORE WILL ISSUE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR ANNE ARUNDEL
FOR A 2.4-2.5 FT MLLW EXPECTED WATER LEVEL AT HIGH TIDE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ531>534-537-
     539>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/HAS
NEAR TERM...BPP/HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...BPP/HAS/DFH
MARINE...BPP/HAS/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BPP







000
FXUS61 KLWX 270114
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
914 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. A REINFORCING
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WE WILL BE WATCHING MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NEXT 24 OR SO HOURS.

CLOSEST UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TO AFFECT THE CWA WAS MOVING INTO THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AT 01Z. CONVECTION WAS STRONGER WHEN IT WAS OVER
OH/WV AND HAS WEAKENED SOME OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. MODELS
INCLUDING HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO HANDLE
NEAR TERM CONVECTION VERY WELL THIS EVENING. MOST RECENT RUNS OF
THE HRRR HAVE LATCHED ONTO UPSTREAM CONVECTION BUT HRRR HAS
CONSISTENTLY BEEN DISSIPATING CONVECTION WHICH HASN/T HAPPENED
YET. ENVIRONMENT IS NOT SUPPORTIVE FOR SEVERE WX AS IT WAS IN OH
/AND THE SUN HAS NOW SET/...YET SHORTWAVE AND WARM ADVECTION WILL
LIKELY BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN SOME CONVECTION FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE
MORE HOURS INTO AT LEAST WESTERN MARYLAND...THE EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA PANHANDLE AND INTO THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY OF VIRGINIA.
WHILE SEVERE WX IS NOT EXPECTED...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR. WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTION LASTS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IS UNCERTAIN. CURRENT FORECAST LOWERS POPS
AT THIS POINT AND WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS IN
CASE LATE EVENING POPS NEED TO BE INCREASED FURTHER DOWNSTREAM.

IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE/EVENING
CONVECTION...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MAY PROMOTE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING CONVECTION AND POPS RAMP UP
/OR RE-RAMP UP/ FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THIS TIME. GIVEN TIME OF
DAY...SEVERE WX IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS ROUND EITHER HOWEVER
LOCALLY STRONG STORMS CAN/T BE RULED OUT.

A THIRD AND POSSIBLY STRONGEST SHORTWAVE /ALONG WITH MULTIPLE LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARIES/ THEN LOOKS TO PRODUCE MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS FROM POTENTIAL
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION MAY HINDER INSTABILITY SLIGHTLY...BUT
EXPECTATION IS FOR ENOUGH OF A WINDOW FOR BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO
OCCUR TO CONTRIBUTE TO 1-2K J/KG CAPE COINCIDENT WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
LIKELY IN EXCESS OF 40 KT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A WIDESPREAD
AND/OR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
ALL SEVERE HAZARD TYPES POSSIBLE INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...FLASH FLOODING AND ALSO ISOLATED TORANDOES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MID-ATLANTIC. SHOWERS SHOULD BE OUT OF
THE REGION BY SUNRISE ON MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OVER THE PA MONDAY AND COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A CU FIELD ACROSS THE AREA.
SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS DUE TO AN INVERTED V
SIGNATURE WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE AREA FROM
CANADA...RESULTING TO MUCH DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. SUBSIDENCE WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND DRY AIR
IN THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OFFSHORE LATER IN THE
WEEK AS ANOTHER SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE TAFS REVOLVES AROUND POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. FIRST SHORTWAVE LIKELY BRINGS SHRA OR TSRA TO
MRB AND PERHAPS EVEN CHO IN THE 02Z-04Z WINDOW TONIGHT.
EXPECTATION IS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO WEAKEN/DISSIPATE LATER THIS
EVENING AND NOT LAST MUCH FURTHER EAST. BUT HIGH RES GUIDANCE HAS
NOT HANDLED TRENDS WELL AND THIS PROVIDES UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
EASTWARD EXTENT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHRA OR TSRA LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND THEN A THIRD IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE
TSRA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIRD ROUND MAY BE THE
STRONGEST WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WESTERLY WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FROPA
MONDAY. VFR MON NIGHT-WED W/ NW FLOW 10-20 KTS...GUSTY MON NIGHT
INTO TUE THEN DECREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS OCCURRING UP THE BAY AND IS EXPECTED TO CHANNEL
FOR LOW END SCA WINDS TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MAY CONTAIN LOW VIS
IN HEAVY RAIN AND ALSO STRONG WINDS /AND EVEN ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS/
WHICH WOULD REQUIRE SMW/S.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY MORNING AND SCA WILL BE
LIKELY. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN GUSTY NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
PRESSURE SURGE BEHIND COLD FROPA MON EVE...SUBSIDING TUE THROUGH
THU.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOUTHERLY WIND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES. MAIN
CONCERN FOR THE NEXT HIGH TIDE CYCLE WILL BE AROUND ANNAPOLIS...WITH
A HIGH TIDE TIME OF 623 AM AT THE US NAVAL ACADEMY. ANOMALY THERE IS
AROUND 3/4 FT ABOVE. IF IT HOLDS THIS WOULD BRING WATER LEVELS ABOVE
THE MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLD. IT COULD EVEN GO UP A TAD WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW. THEREFORE WILL ISSUE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR ANNE ARUNDEL
FOR A 2.4-2.5 FT MLLW EXPECTED WATER LEVEL AT HIGH TIDE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ531>534-537-
     539>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/HAS
NEAR TERM...BPP/HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...BPP/HAS/DFH
MARINE...BPP/HAS/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BPP








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270057
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
857 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...WILL
INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY. COLDER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. HOWEVER...ANOTHER AREA OF STORMS COMING OFF
OF LAKE ERIE WILL LIKELY SUSTAIN THEMSELVES LONG ENOUGH TO MAKE IT
INTO THE REGION. THE HRRR MODEL SEEMS TO HANDLE THIS THE BEST AND
ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THE MCS OVER ILLINOIS AND INDIANA MAY CLIP OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN OHIO AND WV LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS...INCREASING THEM TO LIKELY OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING. CONSIDERING THAT
WE ARE QUICKLY LOSING DAYLIGHT....MOST OF THE INSTABILITY SHOULD
REMAIN ELEVATED...LIMITING ANY SEVERE THREAT FOR THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN OF THE FORECAST EFFORT CONTS TO BE SUNDAY AS
DEEPENING SHRTWV IS PROJECTED ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND TWD THE UPR
OH REGION. SEASONALLY STRONG JET STREAK WL INCRS THE MID AND UPR
WIND OVR BACKED SFC FLOW RESULTING IN SEVERE SPPRTG SPEED AND
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. BNDRY POSITIONING AND INSTABILITY RMN THE
LIMITING FACTORS FOR THE UPR OH REGION GIVEN CLDS AND SHWR
DVLPMNT...BUT FALLING MID LVL TEMPS WITH THE ADVN OF THE MID LVL
THERMAL TROF ARE EXPECTED OFFSET...ESPECIALLY LTR IN THE DAY.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE ENTIRE AREA HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED FOR A
FULL ARRAY SEVERE RISK...BETTER CHC FOR WHICH IS PROJECTED
OVR...AND IN VCNTY OF EAST CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS BLANKETED THAT AREA WITH
A MODERATE SEVERE RISK.

PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEMS CDFNT ON SUNDAY NGT WL END THE SVR THREAT
AND BGN THE DOWNWARD TEMP TREND. MORE SHWRS ARE LIKELY ON MONDAY
AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPR TROF DVLPS OVR THE ERN CONUS...WITH
REINFORCING SFC FRONT SLATED FOR A MIDDAY PASSAGE ACRS THE UPR OH REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND
COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD. WENT WITH A GENERAL VCSH MENTION AND TRIED TO TEMPO
SHOWERS/STORMS AS NEEDED OVERNIGHT AS STORMS MOVING SOUTH FROM
LAKE ERIE AND THE MCS OVER IN/IL APPROACH. LOOKING AT DOWNSTREAM
OBS OVER WESTERN OHIO...MANY TAF SITES MAY EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS
FOR A PERIOD OVERNIGHT. OPTED TO MENTION THIS ACROSS THE BOARD BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MAKE IT PREVAILING EVERYWHERE.

WHILE CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TO VFR EVERYWHERE TOMORROW
MORNING...ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES. WILL MAINTAIN THE VCTS
MENTION FOR NOW CONSIDERING THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING BUT
EXPECT VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL OCCUR AT ANY SITE THAT ENCOUNTERS A
T-STORM.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY THRU MON AS A CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270057
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
857 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...WILL
INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY. COLDER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. HOWEVER...ANOTHER AREA OF STORMS COMING OFF
OF LAKE ERIE WILL LIKELY SUSTAIN THEMSELVES LONG ENOUGH TO MAKE IT
INTO THE REGION. THE HRRR MODEL SEEMS TO HANDLE THIS THE BEST AND
ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THE MCS OVER ILLINOIS AND INDIANA MAY CLIP OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN OHIO AND WV LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS...INCREASING THEM TO LIKELY OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING. CONSIDERING THAT
WE ARE QUICKLY LOSING DAYLIGHT....MOST OF THE INSTABILITY SHOULD
REMAIN ELEVATED...LIMITING ANY SEVERE THREAT FOR THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN OF THE FORECAST EFFORT CONTS TO BE SUNDAY AS
DEEPENING SHRTWV IS PROJECTED ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND TWD THE UPR
OH REGION. SEASONALLY STRONG JET STREAK WL INCRS THE MID AND UPR
WIND OVR BACKED SFC FLOW RESULTING IN SEVERE SPPRTG SPEED AND
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. BNDRY POSITIONING AND INSTABILITY RMN THE
LIMITING FACTORS FOR THE UPR OH REGION GIVEN CLDS AND SHWR
DVLPMNT...BUT FALLING MID LVL TEMPS WITH THE ADVN OF THE MID LVL
THERMAL TROF ARE EXPECTED OFFSET...ESPECIALLY LTR IN THE DAY.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE ENTIRE AREA HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED FOR A
FULL ARRAY SEVERE RISK...BETTER CHC FOR WHICH IS PROJECTED
OVR...AND IN VCNTY OF EAST CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS BLANKETED THAT AREA WITH
A MODERATE SEVERE RISK.

PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEMS CDFNT ON SUNDAY NGT WL END THE SVR THREAT
AND BGN THE DOWNWARD TEMP TREND. MORE SHWRS ARE LIKELY ON MONDAY
AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPR TROF DVLPS OVR THE ERN CONUS...WITH
REINFORCING SFC FRONT SLATED FOR A MIDDAY PASSAGE ACRS THE UPR OH REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND
COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD. WENT WITH A GENERAL VCSH MENTION AND TRIED TO TEMPO
SHOWERS/STORMS AS NEEDED OVERNIGHT AS STORMS MOVING SOUTH FROM
LAKE ERIE AND THE MCS OVER IN/IL APPROACH. LOOKING AT DOWNSTREAM
OBS OVER WESTERN OHIO...MANY TAF SITES MAY EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS
FOR A PERIOD OVERNIGHT. OPTED TO MENTION THIS ACROSS THE BOARD BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MAKE IT PREVAILING EVERYWHERE.

WHILE CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TO VFR EVERYWHERE TOMORROW
MORNING...ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES. WILL MAINTAIN THE VCTS
MENTION FOR NOW CONSIDERING THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING BUT
EXPECT VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL OCCUR AT ANY SITE THAT ENCOUNTERS A
T-STORM.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY THRU MON AS A CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270057
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
857 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...WILL
INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY. COLDER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. HOWEVER...ANOTHER AREA OF STORMS COMING OFF
OF LAKE ERIE WILL LIKELY SUSTAIN THEMSELVES LONG ENOUGH TO MAKE IT
INTO THE REGION. THE HRRR MODEL SEEMS TO HANDLE THIS THE BEST AND
ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THE MCS OVER ILLINOIS AND INDIANA MAY CLIP OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN OHIO AND WV LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS...INCREASING THEM TO LIKELY OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING. CONSIDERING THAT
WE ARE QUICKLY LOSING DAYLIGHT....MOST OF THE INSTABILITY SHOULD
REMAIN ELEVATED...LIMITING ANY SEVERE THREAT FOR THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN OF THE FORECAST EFFORT CONTS TO BE SUNDAY AS
DEEPENING SHRTWV IS PROJECTED ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND TWD THE UPR
OH REGION. SEASONALLY STRONG JET STREAK WL INCRS THE MID AND UPR
WIND OVR BACKED SFC FLOW RESULTING IN SEVERE SPPRTG SPEED AND
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. BNDRY POSITIONING AND INSTABILITY RMN THE
LIMITING FACTORS FOR THE UPR OH REGION GIVEN CLDS AND SHWR
DVLPMNT...BUT FALLING MID LVL TEMPS WITH THE ADVN OF THE MID LVL
THERMAL TROF ARE EXPECTED OFFSET...ESPECIALLY LTR IN THE DAY.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE ENTIRE AREA HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED FOR A
FULL ARRAY SEVERE RISK...BETTER CHC FOR WHICH IS PROJECTED
OVR...AND IN VCNTY OF EAST CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS BLANKETED THAT AREA WITH
A MODERATE SEVERE RISK.

PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEMS CDFNT ON SUNDAY NGT WL END THE SVR THREAT
AND BGN THE DOWNWARD TEMP TREND. MORE SHWRS ARE LIKELY ON MONDAY
AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPR TROF DVLPS OVR THE ERN CONUS...WITH
REINFORCING SFC FRONT SLATED FOR A MIDDAY PASSAGE ACRS THE UPR OH REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND
COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD. WENT WITH A GENERAL VCSH MENTION AND TRIED TO TEMPO
SHOWERS/STORMS AS NEEDED OVERNIGHT AS STORMS MOVING SOUTH FROM
LAKE ERIE AND THE MCS OVER IN/IL APPROACH. LOOKING AT DOWNSTREAM
OBS OVER WESTERN OHIO...MANY TAF SITES MAY EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS
FOR A PERIOD OVERNIGHT. OPTED TO MENTION THIS ACROSS THE BOARD BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MAKE IT PREVAILING EVERYWHERE.

WHILE CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TO VFR EVERYWHERE TOMORROW
MORNING...ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES. WILL MAINTAIN THE VCTS
MENTION FOR NOW CONSIDERING THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING BUT
EXPECT VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL OCCUR AT ANY SITE THAT ENCOUNTERS A
T-STORM.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY THRU MON AS A CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270057
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
857 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...WILL
INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY. COLDER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. HOWEVER...ANOTHER AREA OF STORMS COMING OFF
OF LAKE ERIE WILL LIKELY SUSTAIN THEMSELVES LONG ENOUGH TO MAKE IT
INTO THE REGION. THE HRRR MODEL SEEMS TO HANDLE THIS THE BEST AND
ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THE MCS OVER ILLINOIS AND INDIANA MAY CLIP OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN OHIO AND WV LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS...INCREASING THEM TO LIKELY OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING. CONSIDERING THAT
WE ARE QUICKLY LOSING DAYLIGHT....MOST OF THE INSTABILITY SHOULD
REMAIN ELEVATED...LIMITING ANY SEVERE THREAT FOR THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN OF THE FORECAST EFFORT CONTS TO BE SUNDAY AS
DEEPENING SHRTWV IS PROJECTED ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND TWD THE UPR
OH REGION. SEASONALLY STRONG JET STREAK WL INCRS THE MID AND UPR
WIND OVR BACKED SFC FLOW RESULTING IN SEVERE SPPRTG SPEED AND
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. BNDRY POSITIONING AND INSTABILITY RMN THE
LIMITING FACTORS FOR THE UPR OH REGION GIVEN CLDS AND SHWR
DVLPMNT...BUT FALLING MID LVL TEMPS WITH THE ADVN OF THE MID LVL
THERMAL TROF ARE EXPECTED OFFSET...ESPECIALLY LTR IN THE DAY.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE ENTIRE AREA HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED FOR A
FULL ARRAY SEVERE RISK...BETTER CHC FOR WHICH IS PROJECTED
OVR...AND IN VCNTY OF EAST CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS BLANKETED THAT AREA WITH
A MODERATE SEVERE RISK.

PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEMS CDFNT ON SUNDAY NGT WL END THE SVR THREAT
AND BGN THE DOWNWARD TEMP TREND. MORE SHWRS ARE LIKELY ON MONDAY
AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPR TROF DVLPS OVR THE ERN CONUS...WITH
REINFORCING SFC FRONT SLATED FOR A MIDDAY PASSAGE ACRS THE UPR OH REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND
COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD. WENT WITH A GENERAL VCSH MENTION AND TRIED TO TEMPO
SHOWERS/STORMS AS NEEDED OVERNIGHT AS STORMS MOVING SOUTH FROM
LAKE ERIE AND THE MCS OVER IN/IL APPROACH. LOOKING AT DOWNSTREAM
OBS OVER WESTERN OHIO...MANY TAF SITES MAY EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS
FOR A PERIOD OVERNIGHT. OPTED TO MENTION THIS ACROSS THE BOARD BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MAKE IT PREVAILING EVERYWHERE.

WHILE CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TO VFR EVERYWHERE TOMORROW
MORNING...ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES. WILL MAINTAIN THE VCTS
MENTION FOR NOW CONSIDERING THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING BUT
EXPECT VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL OCCUR AT ANY SITE THAT ENCOUNTERS A
T-STORM.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY THRU MON AS A CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









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