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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 041620
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1220 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE/WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THIS MORNINGS COMPLEX
WILL ALSO BE A CONTRIBUTING FACTOR...AND A FEW STORMS HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH NO SHEAR/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...MOST OF THESE STORMS WILL BE RATHER SHORT LIVED. THUS...SLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOST OF
THE CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AT
NIGHTFALL. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONTINGENT ON CLOUD COVER
AND COVERAGE OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY STAYED WITH A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH IS PROJECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD
ACROSS PA UNDER A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE
AND WARMTH ALOFT SHOULD INHIBIT DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. RELIEF FROM THE
QUITE WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH COLD FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...AS WELL AS AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON
BUT WITH LITTLE CONFIDENCE THAT ANY ONE STORM MAY IMPACT THE
PORTS...HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE TS MENTION OUT FOR NOW.

EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG OVERNIGHT WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LITTLE MIXING.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
GENERAL VFR WITH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN EARLY MORNING FOG IS
ANTICIPATED EACH DAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 041524
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1124 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES WILL
SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST LATE IN
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY WARM/HUMID CONDS ATTM. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FCST.
CONT TO FAVOR CONVECTION (HIGHEST POPS ~ 30%) ALG-W OF I 95.
NO SVR WX XPCD...BUT COULD SEE GUSTY WNDS AND LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS
GIVEN PW`S AOA 1.5 INCHES. HI TEMPS FM THE U80S AT THE CST TO L90S
INLAND...W/ HEAT INDICES REACHING THE M/U90S MOST PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING
INTO A ELONGATED TROF OFF THE CAROLINA COAST IVOF THE GULF STREAM
WALL. THUS...KEPT THUNDER CHCS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THRU 00Z. AIRMASS
BECOMES MORE STABLE BY LATE EVE AND OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THE COMBO OF
LINGERING MSTR AT DIFFERENT LEVELS AND THE INCRG NE WND FLOW LEADS
TO THE NEED TO KEEP AT LEAST SLGHT CHC POPS GOING THRU THE NIGHT
UNDER PT TO MSTLY CLDY SKIES. BCMG BREEZY AT THE COAST AS WELL WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. HIGHEST POPS LATE TONIGHT SHIFTS TOWARD THE
COAST DUE TO THE MOIST FLOW OFF THE OCEAN. LOWS U60S-L70S.

WHAT ONCE LOOKED LIKE A DRY AND COOLER WEEKEND NOW APPEARS TO BE
RTHR UNSETTLED DUE TO LTL MOVEMENT IN SYNOPTIC FEATURES. ADD TO THAT
A DVLPNG AREA OF LOW PRS OFF THE SERN COAST RESULTS IN PERIODS OF
LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND A RTHR GUSTY NE WIND ALONG THE COAST (25-30
MPH). LTST DATA ALSO SUGGESTS WEAK MID LVL DISTURBANCES TRACKING
ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN THE NEED TO KEEP 20-40 POP ACROSS THE
SRN HALF OF THE FA SAT. DRIEST ACROSS THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH. COOLER GIVEN THE ABOVE SCENARIO WITH HIGHS U70S-L80S.

PCPN CHCS (20-40%) CONT TO SHIFT TOWARDS THE COAST SAT NIGHT AS THE
HIGH PRS EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE MTS KEEPING THW WRN HALF OF THE FA
DRY. LOWS SAT NIGHT M60S-L70S.

MSTR FROM THE CSTL TROF AND THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO ADDNTL SHWRS (20-40 POP) MOVG ONSHORE AND MAKING AS FAR WEST
AS THE I95 CORRIDOR SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARDS THE COAST ONCE
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY U70S-L80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF SUN NGT AND MON WITH SFC LO PRES
SPINNING OFF THE CAROLINA CST WITH HI PRES N AND W OF THE FA.
RESULTANT ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO TEMPS ONLY MAKING IT INTO THE
MID 80S MON UNDER A PRTLY-MSTLY SKY. WITH THE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLGT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER MUCH OF THE FA
SUN NGT/MON. KEPT THUNDER OUT DUE TO A LACK OF INSTABILITY. THE
SFC LO WEAKENS AND STARTS SLIDING E TUE ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDS
AND TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID/UPR 80S UNDER A PRTLY CLOUDY
SKY. DRY WX CONTINUES MIDWEEK WITH TEMPS FURTHER INCREASING AS SLY
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRNT...WITH HI TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO NR 90 WED AND THUR. THE FRNT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SOMETIME LATE THU OR FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR FOG/HAZE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A CHC
FOR BRIEF IFR VSBYS AT KPHF AND KECG BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. OTW...VFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TODAY OUTSIDE OF ISOLD TO WDLY SCT AFTN
CONVECTION...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95.

OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN AREAS OF
SHOWERS AND IN EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS SATURDAY THRU MONDAY
WITH ONSHORE FLOW. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
THE COAST ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING IS
PRODUCING LIGHT N-NW WINDS. NE FLOW DEVELOPS ALL WATERS BY LATE
MORNING/AFTN AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH TOWARDS THE
REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE OVERSPREADS THE NE STATES. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE THRU THE DAY OVER ALL WATERS...REACHING 10-15 KT
EVERYWHERE BY EARLY EVENING AND 15-20 KT OVER THE NORTHERN OCEAN
ZONES. WINDS INCREASE A BIT MORE FRIDAY NIGHT SO THAT SCA`S WILL
BE NECESSARY FOR THE OCEAN/BAY/LOWER JAMES RIVER...WITH WAVES ON
THE BAY BUILDING TO 3-4 FT AND SEAS REACHING 4-6 FT (HIGHEST
NORTH). THE START TIME OF THE SCA FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS
(SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES) WAS PUSHED BACK ABOUT 12 HRS (TIL 7AM SAT)
AS IT WILL TAKE THE LONGEST FOR SCA CONDITIONS TO BE REALIZED
THERE. ALL SCA`S WILL THEN RUN THROUGH THE DAY SAT. MAY ALSO NEED
TO INCLUDE THE CURRITUCK SOUND DURING THE DAY SAT BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH ATTM DUE TO SHORT DURATION OF HIGHEST WINDS.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE SAT NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES
SO THAT THE SCA`S CAN END. STILL EXPECTING WAVES TO REMAIN AROUND
4FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SEAS
LINGERING AROUND 5 FT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY TO START
NEXT WEEK.

IN ADDITION...THE ONSHORE FLOW AND HIGH NEARSHORE WAVES WILL ENHANCE
THE RIP CURRENT THREAT FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ632.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 041524
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1124 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES WILL
SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST LATE IN
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY WARM/HUMID CONDS ATTM. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FCST.
CONT TO FAVOR CONVECTION (HIGHEST POPS ~ 30%) ALG-W OF I 95.
NO SVR WX XPCD...BUT COULD SEE GUSTY WNDS AND LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS
GIVEN PW`S AOA 1.5 INCHES. HI TEMPS FM THE U80S AT THE CST TO L90S
INLAND...W/ HEAT INDICES REACHING THE M/U90S MOST PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING
INTO A ELONGATED TROF OFF THE CAROLINA COAST IVOF THE GULF STREAM
WALL. THUS...KEPT THUNDER CHCS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THRU 00Z. AIRMASS
BECOMES MORE STABLE BY LATE EVE AND OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THE COMBO OF
LINGERING MSTR AT DIFFERENT LEVELS AND THE INCRG NE WND FLOW LEADS
TO THE NEED TO KEEP AT LEAST SLGHT CHC POPS GOING THRU THE NIGHT
UNDER PT TO MSTLY CLDY SKIES. BCMG BREEZY AT THE COAST AS WELL WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. HIGHEST POPS LATE TONIGHT SHIFTS TOWARD THE
COAST DUE TO THE MOIST FLOW OFF THE OCEAN. LOWS U60S-L70S.

WHAT ONCE LOOKED LIKE A DRY AND COOLER WEEKEND NOW APPEARS TO BE
RTHR UNSETTLED DUE TO LTL MOVEMENT IN SYNOPTIC FEATURES. ADD TO THAT
A DVLPNG AREA OF LOW PRS OFF THE SERN COAST RESULTS IN PERIODS OF
LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND A RTHR GUSTY NE WIND ALONG THE COAST (25-30
MPH). LTST DATA ALSO SUGGESTS WEAK MID LVL DISTURBANCES TRACKING
ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN THE NEED TO KEEP 20-40 POP ACROSS THE
SRN HALF OF THE FA SAT. DRIEST ACROSS THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH. COOLER GIVEN THE ABOVE SCENARIO WITH HIGHS U70S-L80S.

PCPN CHCS (20-40%) CONT TO SHIFT TOWARDS THE COAST SAT NIGHT AS THE
HIGH PRS EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE MTS KEEPING THW WRN HALF OF THE FA
DRY. LOWS SAT NIGHT M60S-L70S.

MSTR FROM THE CSTL TROF AND THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO ADDNTL SHWRS (20-40 POP) MOVG ONSHORE AND MAKING AS FAR WEST
AS THE I95 CORRIDOR SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARDS THE COAST ONCE
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY U70S-L80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF SUN NGT AND MON WITH SFC LO PRES
SPINNING OFF THE CAROLINA CST WITH HI PRES N AND W OF THE FA.
RESULTANT ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO TEMPS ONLY MAKING IT INTO THE
MID 80S MON UNDER A PRTLY-MSTLY SKY. WITH THE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLGT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER MUCH OF THE FA
SUN NGT/MON. KEPT THUNDER OUT DUE TO A LACK OF INSTABILITY. THE
SFC LO WEAKENS AND STARTS SLIDING E TUE ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDS
AND TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID/UPR 80S UNDER A PRTLY CLOUDY
SKY. DRY WX CONTINUES MIDWEEK WITH TEMPS FURTHER INCREASING AS SLY
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRNT...WITH HI TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO NR 90 WED AND THUR. THE FRNT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SOMETIME LATE THU OR FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR FOG/HAZE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A CHC
FOR BRIEF IFR VSBYS AT KPHF AND KECG BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. OTW...VFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TODAY OUTSIDE OF ISOLD TO WDLY SCT AFTN
CONVECTION...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95.

OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN AREAS OF
SHOWERS AND IN EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS SATURDAY THRU MONDAY
WITH ONSHORE FLOW. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
THE COAST ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING IS
PRODUCING LIGHT N-NW WINDS. NE FLOW DEVELOPS ALL WATERS BY LATE
MORNING/AFTN AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH TOWARDS THE
REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE OVERSPREADS THE NE STATES. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE THRU THE DAY OVER ALL WATERS...REACHING 10-15 KT
EVERYWHERE BY EARLY EVENING AND 15-20 KT OVER THE NORTHERN OCEAN
ZONES. WINDS INCREASE A BIT MORE FRIDAY NIGHT SO THAT SCA`S WILL
BE NECESSARY FOR THE OCEAN/BAY/LOWER JAMES RIVER...WITH WAVES ON
THE BAY BUILDING TO 3-4 FT AND SEAS REACHING 4-6 FT (HIGHEST
NORTH). THE START TIME OF THE SCA FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS
(SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES) WAS PUSHED BACK ABOUT 12 HRS (TIL 7AM SAT)
AS IT WILL TAKE THE LONGEST FOR SCA CONDITIONS TO BE REALIZED
THERE. ALL SCA`S WILL THEN RUN THROUGH THE DAY SAT. MAY ALSO NEED
TO INCLUDE THE CURRITUCK SOUND DURING THE DAY SAT BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH ATTM DUE TO SHORT DURATION OF HIGHEST WINDS.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE SAT NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES
SO THAT THE SCA`S CAN END. STILL EXPECTING WAVES TO REMAIN AROUND
4FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SEAS
LINGERING AROUND 5 FT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY TO START
NEXT WEEK.

IN ADDITION...THE ONSHORE FLOW AND HIGH NEARSHORE WAVES WILL ENHANCE
THE RIP CURRENT THREAT FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ632.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM


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000
FXUS61 KPHI 041430
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1030 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY, THEN MOVE
THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR THE CENTRAL MD AND CENTRAL
PA BORDER STRETCHING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BUT
THE BOUNDARY WAS RATHER DIFFUSE. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE OCCURRING
BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE WAS ALSO AN AREA OF STRATOCU MOVING INTO
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NJ, WHICH SHOULD ADVECT SOUTHEASTWARD
THRUOUT THE DAY.

THE HEART OF THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT
ITSELF AND IS CURRENTLY STILL BACK IN SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.
THEREFORE, LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL STILL BE HOT AND
HUMID TODAY...AT LEAST FOR SEPTEMBER STANDARDS...BUT NOT NEARLY
AS HOT AS THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WAS. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS THE
POST- FRONTAL COOLER AIR THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER NEW ENGLAND
ARRIVING IN CONJUNCTION WITH A EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND SURGE
DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NJ AND
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FOR THE DELAWARE VALLEY. BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS
A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA GIVEN THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE COOLER AIR. A FEW WARM SPOTS
SUCH AS ESN, ILG AND PHL HAVE A SHOT AT REACHING 90F TODAY, BUT
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE IN THE 80S (EXCEPT 70S ALONG THE COAST
AND IN THE POCONOS).

THERE IS A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH  NEAR NYC WILL DROP
SOUTHWESTWARD THRU THE AREA TODAY. THIS COULD PROVIDE LIFT FOR
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. HIRES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PINPOINT
EASTERN PA AND EASTERN MD FOR THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORM THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE RIDGE OF HIGHER
INSTABILITY WILL BE POSITIONED OVER OUR WESTERN MOST ZONES. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL LIKELY COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING HOURS AND COVERAGE
WILL BE SCATTERED IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES. MEANWHILE, CONVECTION
OVER THE DELAWARE VALLEY MAY BE MORE ISOLATED AND OCCUR EARLIER IN
THE AFTERNOON JUST BEFORE THE STABLE AIR ARRIVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE DROP FROM QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND
FOR TONIGHT, DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO OUR REGION. SOME
CLEARING IS EXPECTED FROM THE NORTHEAST AND ANY CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE PUSHED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.

THE WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR TONIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS. READINGS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE POCONO REGION
AND IN FAR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST AND A
TROUGH IN THE WEST. AS THE TROUGH EJECTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THE PORTION OF THE
RIDGE IN THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN.
THE TROUGH OR ANOTHER ONE BEHIND IT GRADUALLY SLIDES EAST-
NORTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY, HOWEVER THE RIDGE WHILE GETTING PUSHED
SOUTHEASTWARD IT TENDS TO SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
INCOMING SYSTEM. THIS PATTERN TENDS TO FAVOR WARMTH AND DRYNESS
ALTHOUGH A BREAK OCCURS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE REGION NEEDS RAIN, HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE
THE CHCS ARE RATHER LOW GIVEN NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH.
WE USED A MODEL/CONTINUITY BLEND FOR SATURDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH A
00Z WPC GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY BLEND THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS
WERE THEN MADE AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING
OFFICES.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CRESTS ACROSS
THE AREA, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EASE EASTWARD. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE ONSHORE FLOW TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY.
THE ONSHORE FLOW HOWEVER PERSISTS SATURDAY WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
RESULT IN MORE CLOUDINESS FOR A TIME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME LIGHT QPF IN PORTIONS OF MARYLAND AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN DELAWARE, HOWEVER THIS IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE
GIVEN THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING SOUTHWARD. AS A RESULT, WE WENT
WITH A DRY FORECAST BUT DID CARRY MORE CLOUD COVER. A MUCH COOLER
DAY IS EXPECTED SATURDAY DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW. WE START TO LOSE
THE STRENGTH OF THE ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY, AND THEREFORE THE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO START REBOUNDING IN THE AFTERNOON
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BE MORE ACROSS THE INTERIOR
COMPARED TO THE COASTAL LOCALES.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO CLOSED LOW
TRACKING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA IS
FORECAST TO ALLOW FOR A FLATTER RIDGE IN THE EAST. THIS WILL ALSO
FORCE HIGH PRESSURE MORE OFFSHORE, AND A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
GRADUALLY SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY IS FORECAST TO TRACK INTO CANADA TUESDAY, THEREFORE THE
CHCS FOR CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE TO OUR WEST. AS THE FLOW IS
MORE SOUTHERLY, A RATHER WARM AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE WITH
SOME INCREASE IN THE DEW POINTS EACH DAY. THERE IS A WEAK SYSTEM
FORECAST TO BE OFF OF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS, HOWEVER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH GIVEN SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CLOSER TO OUR AREA.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE TROUGH TO
CLOSED LOW IS FOLLOWED BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST TO
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS MAY INDUCE A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE COLD
FRONT, SLOWING IT DOWN SOME MORE. THE COMBINATION OF THIS ALONG
WITH THE INITIAL ENERGY TRACKING WELL NORTH AND THE RIDGE FARTHER
SOUTH SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS TIMING WILL
GOVERNOR THE PROSPECTS FOR THE CONVECTIVE CHCS, HOWEVER THE WPC
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SURFACE FRONT MOVING IN DURING THURSDAY. THIS
SHOULD EXTEND THE PERIOD OF RATHER WARM CONDITIONS, HOWEVER THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY MAY SIGNAL A CHANGE. OVERALL, LOW
POPS ARE CARRIED MOSTLY THURSDAY AS THE FRONT ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VSBYS ARE CURRENTLY 5SM IN HZ AT ACY AND ILG, BUT SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR SHORTLY. THE REST OF THE TAF SITES ARE VFR AND EXPECT IT TO
STAY THAT WAY THRU MUCH OF THE DAY.

A DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHEAST SHOULD
OVERSPREAD OUR REGION TODAY. CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE
4000 FEET. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT 1600Z UNTIL
2200Z AND THEY HAVE BEEN MENTIONED FOR ALL OF OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT
KTTN AND KACY. CONDITIONS AROUND THOSE TWO TAF SITES AND POINTS TO
THE NORTHEAST SHOULD REMAIN MORE STABLE THAN AT LOCATIONS TO THE
SOUTHWEST. ALSO, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY IN EASTERN PA BUT THE RISK IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS.

THE STRATOCUMULUS IS EXPECTED TO LOWER THIS EVENING WITH MVFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

THE WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO FAVOR THE NORTHEAST AND EAST THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD AT SPEEDS FROM ABOUT 6 TO 12 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL, HOWEVER SOME CLOUDINESS IS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY MAINLY SOUTH OF KILG TO KACY. LOCALIZED FOG
POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. EAST-
NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS SATURDAY /STRONGEST CLOSER TO THE
COAST/, DIMINISHING SOME AND BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. SOUTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10
KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC TODAY AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT.

AN INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED AND WIND GUSTS SHOULD
INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, WE
HAVE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ALL BUT THE UPPER PART
OF DELAWARE BAY WHICH SHOULD BE SHELTERED FROM THE STRONGEST OF
THE GUSTS.

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEGINS AT NOON FOR OUR NORTHERN WATERS
AND AT 400 PM FOR OUR SOUTHERN WATERS AND FOR LOWER DELAWARE BAY.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BUILD TO 4 TO
6 FEET FOR LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD BUILD TO 2
TO 4 FEET ON LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND 1 TO 2 FEET ON THE UPPER BAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS CLOSER.
HOWEVER, STRONG ENOUGH FLOW WITHIN A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS FOR AWHILE MAINLY ON
THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. IT COULD BE CLOSE MAINLY IN THE
MORNING FOR LOWER DELAWARE BAY, HOWEVER AS OF NOW DID NOT TAKE THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEYOND 12Z GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE. THE SEAS
OF 4-6 FEET ARE EXPECTED ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AS A
RESULT OF THE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW, HOWEVER THESE SHOULD BE
SUBSIDING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THEY SHIFT FROM EAST-NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH. THE SEAS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO BE
BELOW 5 FEET.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE THREAT FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL BE ENHANCED FOR TODAY
AND THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

A DEVELOPING AND INCREASING NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TODAY. THE
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THE WINDS AND WAVES ALONG THE COAST
SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AS OF NOW, IN-
HOUSE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A SOLID MODERATE /POSSIBLY NEARING
HIGH/ FOR SATURDAY. THE RISK SHOULD LOWER SOME SUNDAY BUT IT MAY
STILL BE MODERATE.

IT IS PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT FOR SAFETY AWARENESS TO SHARE THIS
INFORMATION TO BEACHGOERS AND LIFEGUARDS WITH THE BEACH CROWD
ANTICIPATED TO BE LARGER THAN NORMAL GIVEN IT IS LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO/KLEIN
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
RIP CURRENTS...GORSE/IOVINO/KLEIN



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KLWX 041400
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1000 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE
WATERS LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
DURING THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST DURING
THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW
ENGLAND. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE STALLING OUT OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT.

A NORTHERLY FLOW LATE THIS MORNING WILL TURN TO THE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE BACKDOOR BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THE TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN WELL
OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. THEREFORE...MORE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO MORE
INSTABILITY. MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDING FROM KLWX SHOWS OVER 2KJ/KG OF
MLCAPE THIS AFTERNOON. FORCING MECHANISMS WILL BE WEAK...WITH
LITTLE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BACKDOOR BOUNDARY AND TERRAIN
CIRCULATION OVER THE MOUNTAINS. STILL FEEL THAT IT WILL BE ENOUGH
FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRIER AIR
SHOULD BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...CAUSING ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO
QUICKLY DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING NEAR WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE. HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING NEAR AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS.

THE BACKDOOR BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS
INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN LATE TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY. ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT BUT LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AS MOISTURE
GETS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD SATURDAY
AND COOLER DRIER AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. CLEARING
WILL INCREASE FROM N- S AS WELL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SW WHERE
THE FRONT MAY STILL BE LOCATED. TEMPS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP A DRY ENE FLOW AND
COMFORTABLE TEMPS THROUGH MON. SFC HIGH WEAKENS MORE RAPIDLY MON
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WHILE MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE
OVER THE MID ATLC RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND. IS NOT REALLY
UNTIL WED WHEN SFC HIGH WEAKENS ENOUGH TO ALLOW MOISTURE RETURN
INTO THE AREA. WILL KEEP FCST DRY THROUGH TUE NIGHT THEN BRING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WED AFTERNOON WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE INTO THU FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A SLOW
MOVING CDFNT CROSSING THE AREA THU OR THU NIGHT BUT SHOW SIG
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND WHETHER FRONT CLEARS THE
ENTIRE AREA OR NOT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NORTHERLY WINDS LATE THIS MORNING WILL TURN EASTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AND BRIEF PERIODS
OF IFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE EASTERN TERMINALS...BUT THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE WESTERN TERMINALS.

MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT DUE TO
THE EASTERLY FLOW. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF SATURDAY MORNING FOR
MOST AREAS...BUT THEY MAY HOLD ON INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS KCHO.
MORE LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

NO AVIATION CONCERNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
N WINDS BECOME EASTERLY TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING
BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR GUSTY WINDS ON THE BAY THROUGH SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
ACROSS THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC AS IT IS CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH.

SCA MAY LINGER OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER BAY INTO THE FIRS PART OF SUN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES REMAIN ABOUT HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL AS LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OCCURS ON THE WATERS. THE FLOW WILL TURN TO
THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP
WATER LEVELS BELOW FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE NEAR TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...BJL/HAS/LFR
MARINE...BJL/HAS/LFR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL/HAS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 041400
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1000 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE
WATERS LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
DURING THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST DURING
THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW
ENGLAND. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE STALLING OUT OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT.

A NORTHERLY FLOW LATE THIS MORNING WILL TURN TO THE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE BACKDOOR BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THE TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN WELL
OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. THEREFORE...MORE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO MORE
INSTABILITY. MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDING FROM KLWX SHOWS OVER 2KJ/KG OF
MLCAPE THIS AFTERNOON. FORCING MECHANISMS WILL BE WEAK...WITH
LITTLE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BACKDOOR BOUNDARY AND TERRAIN
CIRCULATION OVER THE MOUNTAINS. STILL FEEL THAT IT WILL BE ENOUGH
FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRIER AIR
SHOULD BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...CAUSING ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO
QUICKLY DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING NEAR WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE. HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING NEAR AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS.

THE BACKDOOR BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS
INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN LATE TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY. ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT BUT LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AS MOISTURE
GETS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD SATURDAY
AND COOLER DRIER AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. CLEARING
WILL INCREASE FROM N- S AS WELL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SW WHERE
THE FRONT MAY STILL BE LOCATED. TEMPS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP A DRY ENE FLOW AND
COMFORTABLE TEMPS THROUGH MON. SFC HIGH WEAKENS MORE RAPIDLY MON
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WHILE MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE
OVER THE MID ATLC RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND. IS NOT REALLY
UNTIL WED WHEN SFC HIGH WEAKENS ENOUGH TO ALLOW MOISTURE RETURN
INTO THE AREA. WILL KEEP FCST DRY THROUGH TUE NIGHT THEN BRING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WED AFTERNOON WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE INTO THU FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A SLOW
MOVING CDFNT CROSSING THE AREA THU OR THU NIGHT BUT SHOW SIG
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND WHETHER FRONT CLEARS THE
ENTIRE AREA OR NOT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NORTHERLY WINDS LATE THIS MORNING WILL TURN EASTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AND BRIEF PERIODS
OF IFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE EASTERN TERMINALS...BUT THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE WESTERN TERMINALS.

MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT DUE TO
THE EASTERLY FLOW. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF SATURDAY MORNING FOR
MOST AREAS...BUT THEY MAY HOLD ON INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS KCHO.
MORE LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

NO AVIATION CONCERNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
N WINDS BECOME EASTERLY TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING
BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR GUSTY WINDS ON THE BAY THROUGH SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
ACROSS THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC AS IT IS CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH.

SCA MAY LINGER OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER BAY INTO THE FIRS PART OF SUN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES REMAIN ABOUT HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL AS LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OCCURS ON THE WATERS. THE FLOW WILL TURN TO
THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP
WATER LEVELS BELOW FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE NEAR TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...BJL/HAS/LFR
MARINE...BJL/HAS/LFR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL/HAS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 041400
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1000 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE
WATERS LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
DURING THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST DURING
THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW
ENGLAND. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE STALLING OUT OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT.

A NORTHERLY FLOW LATE THIS MORNING WILL TURN TO THE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE BACKDOOR BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THE TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN WELL
OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. THEREFORE...MORE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO MORE
INSTABILITY. MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDING FROM KLWX SHOWS OVER 2KJ/KG OF
MLCAPE THIS AFTERNOON. FORCING MECHANISMS WILL BE WEAK...WITH
LITTLE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BACKDOOR BOUNDARY AND TERRAIN
CIRCULATION OVER THE MOUNTAINS. STILL FEEL THAT IT WILL BE ENOUGH
FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRIER AIR
SHOULD BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...CAUSING ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO
QUICKLY DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING NEAR WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE. HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING NEAR AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS.

THE BACKDOOR BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS
INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN LATE TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY. ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT BUT LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AS MOISTURE
GETS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD SATURDAY
AND COOLER DRIER AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. CLEARING
WILL INCREASE FROM N- S AS WELL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SW WHERE
THE FRONT MAY STILL BE LOCATED. TEMPS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP A DRY ENE FLOW AND
COMFORTABLE TEMPS THROUGH MON. SFC HIGH WEAKENS MORE RAPIDLY MON
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WHILE MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE
OVER THE MID ATLC RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND. IS NOT REALLY
UNTIL WED WHEN SFC HIGH WEAKENS ENOUGH TO ALLOW MOISTURE RETURN
INTO THE AREA. WILL KEEP FCST DRY THROUGH TUE NIGHT THEN BRING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WED AFTERNOON WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE INTO THU FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A SLOW
MOVING CDFNT CROSSING THE AREA THU OR THU NIGHT BUT SHOW SIG
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND WHETHER FRONT CLEARS THE
ENTIRE AREA OR NOT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NORTHERLY WINDS LATE THIS MORNING WILL TURN EASTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AND BRIEF PERIODS
OF IFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE EASTERN TERMINALS...BUT THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE WESTERN TERMINALS.

MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT DUE TO
THE EASTERLY FLOW. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF SATURDAY MORNING FOR
MOST AREAS...BUT THEY MAY HOLD ON INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS KCHO.
MORE LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

NO AVIATION CONCERNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
N WINDS BECOME EASTERLY TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING
BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR GUSTY WINDS ON THE BAY THROUGH SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
ACROSS THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC AS IT IS CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH.

SCA MAY LINGER OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER BAY INTO THE FIRS PART OF SUN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES REMAIN ABOUT HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL AS LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OCCURS ON THE WATERS. THE FLOW WILL TURN TO
THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP
WATER LEVELS BELOW FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE NEAR TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...BJL/HAS/LFR
MARINE...BJL/HAS/LFR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL/HAS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 041400
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1000 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE
WATERS LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
DURING THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST DURING
THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW
ENGLAND. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE STALLING OUT OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT.

A NORTHERLY FLOW LATE THIS MORNING WILL TURN TO THE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE BACKDOOR BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THE TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN WELL
OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. THEREFORE...MORE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO MORE
INSTABILITY. MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDING FROM KLWX SHOWS OVER 2KJ/KG OF
MLCAPE THIS AFTERNOON. FORCING MECHANISMS WILL BE WEAK...WITH
LITTLE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BACKDOOR BOUNDARY AND TERRAIN
CIRCULATION OVER THE MOUNTAINS. STILL FEEL THAT IT WILL BE ENOUGH
FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRIER AIR
SHOULD BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...CAUSING ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO
QUICKLY DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING NEAR WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE. HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING NEAR AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS.

THE BACKDOOR BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS
INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN LATE TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY. ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT BUT LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AS MOISTURE
GETS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD SATURDAY
AND COOLER DRIER AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. CLEARING
WILL INCREASE FROM N- S AS WELL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SW WHERE
THE FRONT MAY STILL BE LOCATED. TEMPS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP A DRY ENE FLOW AND
COMFORTABLE TEMPS THROUGH MON. SFC HIGH WEAKENS MORE RAPIDLY MON
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WHILE MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE
OVER THE MID ATLC RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND. IS NOT REALLY
UNTIL WED WHEN SFC HIGH WEAKENS ENOUGH TO ALLOW MOISTURE RETURN
INTO THE AREA. WILL KEEP FCST DRY THROUGH TUE NIGHT THEN BRING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WED AFTERNOON WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE INTO THU FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A SLOW
MOVING CDFNT CROSSING THE AREA THU OR THU NIGHT BUT SHOW SIG
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND WHETHER FRONT CLEARS THE
ENTIRE AREA OR NOT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NORTHERLY WINDS LATE THIS MORNING WILL TURN EASTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AND BRIEF PERIODS
OF IFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE EASTERN TERMINALS...BUT THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE WESTERN TERMINALS.

MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT DUE TO
THE EASTERLY FLOW. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF SATURDAY MORNING FOR
MOST AREAS...BUT THEY MAY HOLD ON INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS KCHO.
MORE LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

NO AVIATION CONCERNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
N WINDS BECOME EASTERLY TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING
BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR GUSTY WINDS ON THE BAY THROUGH SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
ACROSS THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC AS IT IS CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH.

SCA MAY LINGER OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER BAY INTO THE FIRS PART OF SUN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES REMAIN ABOUT HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL AS LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OCCURS ON THE WATERS. THE FLOW WILL TURN TO
THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP
WATER LEVELS BELOW FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE NEAR TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...BJL/HAS/LFR
MARINE...BJL/HAS/LFR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL/HAS




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 041220
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
820 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS
MORNING. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND TIMING BASED ON THE
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR...WHICH SEEMS TO BE HANDLING
THIS WELL.

RESIDUAL OUTFLOW FROM THE COMPLEX SHOULD HELP TO SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE POPS THAT ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WERE
FORECAST AT PERSISTENCE AS THERE IS NO CHANGE EXPECTED TO THE WARM
AND HUMID AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH IS PROJECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD
ACROSS PA UNDER A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE
AND WARMTH ALOFT SHOULD INHIBIT DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. RELIEF FROM THE
QUITE WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH COLD FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...AS WELL AS AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER MORNING FOG BURNS OFF...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL CONVECTION IS
ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH LITTLE CONFIDENCE THAT ANY ONE
STORM MAY IMPACT THE PORTS...HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE TS MENTION OUT
FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
GENERAL VFR WITH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN EARLY MORNING FOG IS
ANTICIPATED EACH DAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 041220
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
820 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS
MORNING. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND TIMING BASED ON THE
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR...WHICH SEEMS TO BE HANDLING
THIS WELL.

RESIDUAL OUTFLOW FROM THE COMPLEX SHOULD HELP TO SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE POPS THAT ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WERE
FORECAST AT PERSISTENCE AS THERE IS NO CHANGE EXPECTED TO THE WARM
AND HUMID AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH IS PROJECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD
ACROSS PA UNDER A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE
AND WARMTH ALOFT SHOULD INHIBIT DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. RELIEF FROM THE
QUITE WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH COLD FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...AS WELL AS AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER MORNING FOG BURNS OFF...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL CONVECTION IS
ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH LITTLE CONFIDENCE THAT ANY ONE
STORM MAY IMPACT THE PORTS...HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE TS MENTION OUT
FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
GENERAL VFR WITH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN EARLY MORNING FOG IS
ANTICIPATED EACH DAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 041220
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
820 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS
MORNING. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND TIMING BASED ON THE
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR...WHICH SEEMS TO BE HANDLING
THIS WELL.

RESIDUAL OUTFLOW FROM THE COMPLEX SHOULD HELP TO SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE POPS THAT ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WERE
FORECAST AT PERSISTENCE AS THERE IS NO CHANGE EXPECTED TO THE WARM
AND HUMID AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH IS PROJECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD
ACROSS PA UNDER A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE
AND WARMTH ALOFT SHOULD INHIBIT DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. RELIEF FROM THE
QUITE WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH COLD FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...AS WELL AS AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER MORNING FOG BURNS OFF...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL CONVECTION IS
ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH LITTLE CONFIDENCE THAT ANY ONE
STORM MAY IMPACT THE PORTS...HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE TS MENTION OUT
FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
GENERAL VFR WITH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN EARLY MORNING FOG IS
ANTICIPATED EACH DAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPHI 041054
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
654 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY, THEN MOVE
THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WAS CONTINUING TO DROP THROUGH OUR
REGION AT 630 AM. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
IN MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY 800 AM.

AN AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS THAT WAS DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF NEW
ENGLAND AND THE ADJACENT WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
SOUTHWESTWARD AND OVER OUR REGION TODAY. AS A RESULT, WE ARE
ANTICIPATING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.

AN IMPULSE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD
OVER OUR REGION TODAY. IT MAY TOUCH OFF A FEW RAIN SHOWERS. THE
AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY IN OUR VICINITY IS FORECAST TO EXTEND
FROM CENTRAL VIRGINIA UP INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. WE WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, ON THE UPPER DELMARVA
AND IN PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY. LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST
AND IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY STABLE AND WILL LIKELY NOT EXPERIENCE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

THE CLOUD COVER AND THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 80S FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE DROP FROM QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND
FOR TONIGHT, DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO OUR REGION. SOME
CLEARING IS EXPECTED FROM THE NORTHEAST AND ANY CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE PUSHED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.

THE WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR TONIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS. READINGS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE POCONO REGION
AND IN FAR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST AND A
TROUGH IN THE WEST. AS THE TROUGH EJECTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THE PORTION OF THE
RIDGE IN THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN.
THE TROUGH OR ANOTHER ONE BEHIND IT GRADUALLY SLIDES EAST-
NORTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY, HOWEVER THE RIDGE WHILE GETTING PUSHED
SOUTHEASTWARD IT TENDS TO SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
INCOMING SYSTEM. THIS PATTERN TENDS TO FAVOR WARMTH AND DRYNESS
ALTHOUGH A BREAK OCCURS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE REGION NEEDS RAIN, HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE
THE CHCS ARE RATHER LOW GIVEN NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH.
WE USED A MODEL/CONTINUITY BLEND FOR SATURDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH A
00Z WPC GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY BLEND THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS
WERE THEN MADE AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING
OFFICES.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CRESTS ACROSS
THE AREA, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EASE EASTWARD. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE ONSHORE FLOW TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY.
THE ONSHORE FLOW HOWEVER PERSISTS SATURDAY WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
RESULT IN MORE CLOUDINESS FOR A TIME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME LIGHT QPF IN PORTIONS OF MARYLAND AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN DELAWARE, HOWEVER THIS IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE
GIVEN THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING SOUTHWARD. AS A RESULT, WE WENT
WITH A DRY FORECAST BUT DID CARRY MORE CLOUD COVER. A MUCH COOLER
DAY IS EXPECTED SATURDAY DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW. WE START TO LOSE
THE STRENGTH OF THE ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY, AND THEREFORE THE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO START REBOUNDING IN THE AFTERNOON
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BE MORE ACROSS THE INTERIOR
COMPARED TO THE COASTAL LOCALES.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO CLOSED LOW
TRACKING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA IS
FORECAST TO ALLOW FOR A FLATTER RIDGE IN THE EAST. THIS WILL ALSO
FORCE HIGH PRESSURE MORE OFFSHORE, AND A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
GRADUALLY SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY IS FORECAST TO TRACK INTO CANADA TUESDAY, THEREFORE THE
CHCS FOR CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE TO OUR WEST. AS THE FLOW IS
MORE SOUTHERLY, A RATHER WARM AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE WITH
SOME INCREASE IN THE DEW POINTS EACH DAY. THERE IS A WEAK SYSTEM
FORECAST TO BE OFF OF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS, HOWEVER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH GIVEN SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CLOSER TO OUR AREA.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE TROUGH TO
CLOSED LOW IS FOLLOWED BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST TO
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS MAY INDUCE A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE COLD
FRONT, SLOWING IT DOWN SOME MORE. THE COMBINATION OF THIS ALONG
WITH THE INITIAL ENERGY TRACKING WELL NORTH AND THE RIDGE FARTHER
SOUTH SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS TIMING WILL
GOVERNOR THE PROSPECTS FOR THE CONVECTIVE CHCS, HOWEVER THE WPC
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SURFACE FRONT MOVING IN DURING THURSDAY. THIS
SHOULD EXTEND THE PERIOD OF RATHER WARM CONDITIONS, HOWEVER THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY MAY SIGNAL A CHANGE. OVERALL, LOW
POPS ARE CARRIED MOSTLY THURSDAY AS THE FRONT ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SCATTERED MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN OUR REGION
UNTIL ABOUT 1300Z, THEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING.

A DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHEAST SHOULD
OVERSPREAD OUR REGION TODAY. CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE
4000 FEET. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT 1600Z UNTIL
2200Z AND THEY HAVE BEEN MENTIONED FOR ALL OF OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT
KTTN AND KACY. CONDITIONS AROUND THOSE TWO TAF SITES AND POINTS TO
THE NORTHEAST SHOULD REMAIN MORE STABLE THAN AT LOCATIONS TO THE
SOUTHWEST. ALSO, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
BUT THE RISK IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

THE STRATOCUMULUS IS EXPECTED TO LOWER TONIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE.

THE WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO FAVOR THE NORTHEAST AND EAST THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD AT SPEEDS FROM ABOUT 6 TO 12 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL, HOWEVER SOME CLOUDINESS IS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY MAINLY SOUTH OF KILG TO KACY. LOCALIZED FOG
POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. EAST-
NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS SATURDAY /STRONGEST CLOSER TO THE
COAST/, DIMINISHING SOME AND BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. SOUTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10
KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC TODAY AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT.

AN INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED AND WIND GUSTS SHOULD
INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, WE
HAVE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ALL BUT THE UPPER PART
OF DELAWARE BAY WHICH SHOULD BE SHELTERED FROM THE STRONGEST OF
THE GUSTS.

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEGINS AT NOON FOR OUR NORTHERN WATERS
AND AT 400 PM FOR OUR SOUTHERN WATERS AND FOR LOWER DELAWARE BAY.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BUILD TO 4 TO
6 FEET FOR LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD BUILD TO 2
TO 4 FEET ON LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND 1 TO 2 FEET ON THE UPPER BAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS CLOSER.
HOWEVER, STRONG ENOUGH FLOW WITHIN A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS FOR AWHILE MAINLY ON
THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. IT COULD BE CLOSE MAINLY IN THE
MORNING FOR LOWER DELAWARE BAY, HOWEVER AS OF NOW DID NOT TAKE THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEYOND 12Z GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE. THE SEAS
OF 4-6 FEET ARE EXPECTED ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AS A
RESULT OF THE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW, HOWEVER THESE SHOULD BE
SUBSIDING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THEY SHIFT FROM EAST-NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH. THE SEAS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO BE
BELOW 5 FEET.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE THREAT FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL BE ENHANCED FOR TODAY
AND THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

A DEVELOPING AND INCREASING NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TODAY. THE
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THE WINDS AND WAVES ALONG THE COAST
SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AS OF NOW, IN-
HOUSE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A SOLID MODERATE /POSSIBLY NEARING
HIGH/ FOR SATURDAY. THE RISK SHOULD LOWER SOME SUNDAY BUT IT MAY
STILL BE MODERATE.

IT IS PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT FOR SAFETY AWARENESS TO SHARE THIS
INFORMATION TO BEACHGOERS AND LIFEGUARDS WITH THE BEACH CROWD
ANTICIPATED TO BE LARGER THAN NORMAL GIVEN IT IS LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
RIP CURRENTS...GORSE/IOVINO




000
FXUS61 KPHI 040834
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
434 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY, THEN MOVE
THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WAS DROPPING THROUGH OUR REGION
REMAINED DIFFUSE AND RATHER DIFFICULT TO FIND AROUND 430 AM.
REGARDLESS, THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST IN MOST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY 800 AM.

AN AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS THAT WAS DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF NEW
ENGLAND AND THE ADJACENT WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
SOUTHWESTWARD AND OVER OUR REGION TODAY. AS A RESULT, WE ARE
ANTICIPATING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.

AN IMPULSE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD
OVER OUR REGION TODAY. IT MAY TOUCH OFF A FEW RAIN SHOWERS. THE
AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY IN OUR VICINITY IS FORECAST TO EXTEND
FROM CENTRAL VIRGINIA UP INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. WE WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, ON THE UPPER DELMARVA
AND IN PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY. LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST
AND IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY STABLE AND WILL LIKELY NOT EXPERIENCE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

THE CLOUD COVER AND THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 80S FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE DROP FROM QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND
FOR TONIGHT, DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO OUR REGION. SOME
CLEARING IS EXPECTED FROM THE NORTHEAST AND ANY CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE PUSHED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.

THE WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR TONIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS. READINGS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE POCONO REGION
AND IN FAR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST AND A
TROUGH IN THE WEST. AS THE TROUGH EJECTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THE PORTION OF THE
RIDGE IN THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN.
THE TROUGH OR ANOTHER ONE BEHIND IT GRADUALLY SLIDES EAST-
NORTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY, HOWEVER THE RIDGE WHILE GETTING PUSHED
SOUTHEASTWARD IT TENDS TO SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
INCOMING SYSTEM. THIS PATTERN TENDS TO FAVOR WARMTH AND DRYNESS
ALTHOUGH A BREAK OCCURS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE REGION NEEDS RAIN, HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE
THE CHCS ARE RATHER LOW GIVEN NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH.
WE USED A MODEL/CONTINUITY BLEND FOR SATURDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH A
00Z WPC GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY BLEND THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS
WERE THEN MADE AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING
OFFICES.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CRESTS ACROSS
THE AREA, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EASE EASTWARD. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE ONSHORE FLOW TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY.
THE ONSHORE FLOW HOWEVER PERSISTS SATURDAY WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
RESULT IN MORE CLOUDINESS FOR A TIME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME LIGHT QPF IN PORTIONS OF MARYLAND AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN DELAWARE, HOWEVER THIS IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE
GIVEN THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING SOUTHWARD. AS A RESULT, WE WENT
WITH A DRY FORECAST BUT DID CARRY MORE CLOUD COVER. A MUCH COOLER
DAY IS EXPECTED SATURDAY DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW. WE START TO LOSE
THE STRENGTH OF THE ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY, AND THEREFORE THE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO START REBOUNDING IN THE AFTERNOON
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BE MORE ACROSS THE INTERIOR
COMPARED TO THE COASTAL LOCALES.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO CLOSED LOW
TRACKING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA IS
FORECAST TO ALLOW FOR A FLATTER RIDGE IN THE EAST. THIS WILL ALSO
FORCE HIGH PRESSURE MORE OFFSHORE, AND A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
GRADUALLY SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY IS FORECAST TO TRACK INTO CANADA TUESDAY, THEREFORE THE
CHCS FOR CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE TO OUR WEST. AS THE FLOW IS
MORE SOUTHERLY, A RATHER WARM AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE WITH
SOME INCREASE IN THE DEW POINTS EACH DAY. THERE IS A WEAK SYSTEM
FORECAST TO BE OFF OF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS, HOWEVER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH GIVEN SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CLOSER TO OUR AREA.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE TROUGH TO
CLOSED LOW IS FOLLOWED BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST TO
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS MAY INDUCE A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE COLD
FRONT, SLOWING IT DOWN SOME MORE. THE COMBINATION OF THIS ALONG
WITH THE INITIAL ENERGY TRACKING WELL NORTH AND THE RIDGE FARTHER
SOUTH SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS TIMING WILL
GOVERNOR THE PROSPECTS FOR THE CONVECTIVE CHCS, HOWEVER THE WPC
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SURFACE FRONT MOVING IN DURING THURSDAY. THIS
SHOULD EXTEND THE PERIOD OF RATHER WARM CONDITIONS, HOWEVER THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY MAY SIGNAL A CHANGE. OVERALL, LOW
POPS ARE CARRIED MOSTLY THURSDAY AS THE FRONT ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SCATTERED MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN OUR REGION
UNTIL ABOUT 1300Z, THEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
BALANCE OF THE TAF PERIOD.

A DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHEAST SHOULD
OVERSPREAD OUR REGION TODAY. CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE
4000 FEET. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT 1600Z UNTIL
2200Z AND THEY HAVE BEEN MENTIONED FOR ALL OF OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT
KTTN AND KACY. CONDITIONS AROUND THOSE TWO TAF SITES AND POINTS TO
THE NORTHEAST SHOULD REMAIN MORE STABLE THAN AT LOCATIONS TO THE
SOUTHWEST. ALSO, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
BUT THE RISK IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

THE STRATOCUMULUS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF
OUR TAF SITES TONIGHT.

THE WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO FAVOR THE NORTHEAST AND EAST THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD AT SPEEDS FROM ABOUT 6 TO 12 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL, HOWEVER SOME CLOUDINESS IS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY MAINLY SOUTH OF KILG TO KACY. LOCALIZED FOG
POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. EAST-
NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS SATURDAY /STRONGEST CLOSER TO THE
COAST/, DIMINISHING SOME AND BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. SOUTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10
KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC TODAY AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT.

AN INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED AND WIND GUSTS SHOULD
INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, WE
HAVE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ALL BUT THE UPPER PART
OF DELAWARE BAY WHICH SHOULD BE SHELTERED FROM THE STRONGEST OF
THE GUSTS.

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEGINS AT NOON FOR OUR NORTHERN WATERS
AND AT 400 PM FOR OUR SOUTHERN WATERS AND FOR LOWER DELAWARE BAY.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BUILD TO 4 TO
6 FEET FOR LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD BUILD TO 2
TO 4 FEET ON LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND 1 TO 2 FEET ON THE UPPER BAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS CLOSER.
HOWEVER, STRONG ENOUGH FLOW WITHIN A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS FOR AWHILE MAINLY ON
THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. IT COULD BE CLOSE MAINLY IN THE
MORNING FOR LOWER DELAWARE BAY, HOWEVER AS OF NOW DID NOT TAKE THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEYOND 12Z GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE. THE SEAS
OF 4-6 FEET ARE EXPECTED ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AS A
RESULT OF THE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW, HOWEVER THESE SHOULD BE
SUBSIDING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THEY SHIFT FROM EAST-NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH. THE SEAS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO BE
BELOW 5 FEET.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE THREAT FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL BE ENHANCED FOR TODAY
AND THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

A DEVELOPING AND INCREASING NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TODAY. THE
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THE WINDS AND WAVES ALONG THE COAST
SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AS OF NOW, IN-
HOUSE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A SOLID MODERATE /POSSIBLY NEARING
HIGH/ FOR SATURDAY. THE RISK SHOULD LOWER SOME SUNDAY BUT IT MAY
STILL BE MODERATE.

IT IS PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT FOR SAFETY AWARENESS TO SHARE THIS
INFORMATION TO BEACHGOERS AND LIFEGUARDS WITH THE BEACH CROWD
ANTICIPATED TO BE LARGER THAN NORMAL GIVEN IT IS LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
RIP CURRENTS...GORSE/IOVINO




000
FXUS61 KPHI 040834
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
434 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY, THEN MOVE
THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WAS DROPPING THROUGH OUR REGION
REMAINED DIFFUSE AND RATHER DIFFICULT TO FIND AROUND 430 AM.
REGARDLESS, THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST IN MOST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY 800 AM.

AN AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS THAT WAS DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF NEW
ENGLAND AND THE ADJACENT WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
SOUTHWESTWARD AND OVER OUR REGION TODAY. AS A RESULT, WE ARE
ANTICIPATING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.

AN IMPULSE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD
OVER OUR REGION TODAY. IT MAY TOUCH OFF A FEW RAIN SHOWERS. THE
AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY IN OUR VICINITY IS FORECAST TO EXTEND
FROM CENTRAL VIRGINIA UP INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. WE WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, ON THE UPPER DELMARVA
AND IN PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY. LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST
AND IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY STABLE AND WILL LIKELY NOT EXPERIENCE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

THE CLOUD COVER AND THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 80S FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE DROP FROM QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND
FOR TONIGHT, DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO OUR REGION. SOME
CLEARING IS EXPECTED FROM THE NORTHEAST AND ANY CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE PUSHED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.

THE WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR TONIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS. READINGS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE POCONO REGION
AND IN FAR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST AND A
TROUGH IN THE WEST. AS THE TROUGH EJECTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THE PORTION OF THE
RIDGE IN THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN.
THE TROUGH OR ANOTHER ONE BEHIND IT GRADUALLY SLIDES EAST-
NORTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY, HOWEVER THE RIDGE WHILE GETTING PUSHED
SOUTHEASTWARD IT TENDS TO SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
INCOMING SYSTEM. THIS PATTERN TENDS TO FAVOR WARMTH AND DRYNESS
ALTHOUGH A BREAK OCCURS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE REGION NEEDS RAIN, HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE
THE CHCS ARE RATHER LOW GIVEN NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH.
WE USED A MODEL/CONTINUITY BLEND FOR SATURDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH A
00Z WPC GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY BLEND THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS
WERE THEN MADE AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING
OFFICES.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CRESTS ACROSS
THE AREA, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EASE EASTWARD. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE ONSHORE FLOW TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY.
THE ONSHORE FLOW HOWEVER PERSISTS SATURDAY WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
RESULT IN MORE CLOUDINESS FOR A TIME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME LIGHT QPF IN PORTIONS OF MARYLAND AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN DELAWARE, HOWEVER THIS IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE
GIVEN THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING SOUTHWARD. AS A RESULT, WE WENT
WITH A DRY FORECAST BUT DID CARRY MORE CLOUD COVER. A MUCH COOLER
DAY IS EXPECTED SATURDAY DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW. WE START TO LOSE
THE STRENGTH OF THE ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY, AND THEREFORE THE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO START REBOUNDING IN THE AFTERNOON
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BE MORE ACROSS THE INTERIOR
COMPARED TO THE COASTAL LOCALES.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO CLOSED LOW
TRACKING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA IS
FORECAST TO ALLOW FOR A FLATTER RIDGE IN THE EAST. THIS WILL ALSO
FORCE HIGH PRESSURE MORE OFFSHORE, AND A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
GRADUALLY SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY IS FORECAST TO TRACK INTO CANADA TUESDAY, THEREFORE THE
CHCS FOR CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE TO OUR WEST. AS THE FLOW IS
MORE SOUTHERLY, A RATHER WARM AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE WITH
SOME INCREASE IN THE DEW POINTS EACH DAY. THERE IS A WEAK SYSTEM
FORECAST TO BE OFF OF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS, HOWEVER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH GIVEN SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CLOSER TO OUR AREA.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE TROUGH TO
CLOSED LOW IS FOLLOWED BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST TO
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS MAY INDUCE A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE COLD
FRONT, SLOWING IT DOWN SOME MORE. THE COMBINATION OF THIS ALONG
WITH THE INITIAL ENERGY TRACKING WELL NORTH AND THE RIDGE FARTHER
SOUTH SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS TIMING WILL
GOVERNOR THE PROSPECTS FOR THE CONVECTIVE CHCS, HOWEVER THE WPC
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SURFACE FRONT MOVING IN DURING THURSDAY. THIS
SHOULD EXTEND THE PERIOD OF RATHER WARM CONDITIONS, HOWEVER THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY MAY SIGNAL A CHANGE. OVERALL, LOW
POPS ARE CARRIED MOSTLY THURSDAY AS THE FRONT ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SCATTERED MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN OUR REGION
UNTIL ABOUT 1300Z, THEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
BALANCE OF THE TAF PERIOD.

A DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHEAST SHOULD
OVERSPREAD OUR REGION TODAY. CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE
4000 FEET. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT 1600Z UNTIL
2200Z AND THEY HAVE BEEN MENTIONED FOR ALL OF OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT
KTTN AND KACY. CONDITIONS AROUND THOSE TWO TAF SITES AND POINTS TO
THE NORTHEAST SHOULD REMAIN MORE STABLE THAN AT LOCATIONS TO THE
SOUTHWEST. ALSO, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
BUT THE RISK IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

THE STRATOCUMULUS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF
OUR TAF SITES TONIGHT.

THE WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO FAVOR THE NORTHEAST AND EAST THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD AT SPEEDS FROM ABOUT 6 TO 12 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL, HOWEVER SOME CLOUDINESS IS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY MAINLY SOUTH OF KILG TO KACY. LOCALIZED FOG
POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. EAST-
NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS SATURDAY /STRONGEST CLOSER TO THE
COAST/, DIMINISHING SOME AND BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. SOUTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10
KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC TODAY AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT.

AN INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED AND WIND GUSTS SHOULD
INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, WE
HAVE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ALL BUT THE UPPER PART
OF DELAWARE BAY WHICH SHOULD BE SHELTERED FROM THE STRONGEST OF
THE GUSTS.

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEGINS AT NOON FOR OUR NORTHERN WATERS
AND AT 400 PM FOR OUR SOUTHERN WATERS AND FOR LOWER DELAWARE BAY.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BUILD TO 4 TO
6 FEET FOR LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD BUILD TO 2
TO 4 FEET ON LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND 1 TO 2 FEET ON THE UPPER BAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS CLOSER.
HOWEVER, STRONG ENOUGH FLOW WITHIN A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS FOR AWHILE MAINLY ON
THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. IT COULD BE CLOSE MAINLY IN THE
MORNING FOR LOWER DELAWARE BAY, HOWEVER AS OF NOW DID NOT TAKE THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEYOND 12Z GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE. THE SEAS
OF 4-6 FEET ARE EXPECTED ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AS A
RESULT OF THE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW, HOWEVER THESE SHOULD BE
SUBSIDING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THEY SHIFT FROM EAST-NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH. THE SEAS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO BE
BELOW 5 FEET.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE THREAT FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL BE ENHANCED FOR TODAY
AND THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

A DEVELOPING AND INCREASING NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TODAY. THE
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THE WINDS AND WAVES ALONG THE COAST
SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AS OF NOW, IN-
HOUSE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A SOLID MODERATE /POSSIBLY NEARING
HIGH/ FOR SATURDAY. THE RISK SHOULD LOWER SOME SUNDAY BUT IT MAY
STILL BE MODERATE.

IT IS PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT FOR SAFETY AWARENESS TO SHARE THIS
INFORMATION TO BEACHGOERS AND LIFEGUARDS WITH THE BEACH CROWD
ANTICIPATED TO BE LARGER THAN NORMAL GIVEN IT IS LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
RIP CURRENTS...GORSE/IOVINO



000
FXUS61 KPHI 040834
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
434 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY, THEN MOVE
THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WAS DROPPING THROUGH OUR REGION
REMAINED DIFFUSE AND RATHER DIFFICULT TO FIND AROUND 430 AM.
REGARDLESS, THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST IN MOST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY 800 AM.

AN AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS THAT WAS DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF NEW
ENGLAND AND THE ADJACENT WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
SOUTHWESTWARD AND OVER OUR REGION TODAY. AS A RESULT, WE ARE
ANTICIPATING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.

AN IMPULSE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD
OVER OUR REGION TODAY. IT MAY TOUCH OFF A FEW RAIN SHOWERS. THE
AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY IN OUR VICINITY IS FORECAST TO EXTEND
FROM CENTRAL VIRGINIA UP INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. WE WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, ON THE UPPER DELMARVA
AND IN PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY. LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST
AND IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY STABLE AND WILL LIKELY NOT EXPERIENCE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

THE CLOUD COVER AND THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 80S FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE DROP FROM QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND
FOR TONIGHT, DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO OUR REGION. SOME
CLEARING IS EXPECTED FROM THE NORTHEAST AND ANY CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE PUSHED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.

THE WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR TONIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS. READINGS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE POCONO REGION
AND IN FAR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST AND A
TROUGH IN THE WEST. AS THE TROUGH EJECTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THE PORTION OF THE
RIDGE IN THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN.
THE TROUGH OR ANOTHER ONE BEHIND IT GRADUALLY SLIDES EAST-
NORTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY, HOWEVER THE RIDGE WHILE GETTING PUSHED
SOUTHEASTWARD IT TENDS TO SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
INCOMING SYSTEM. THIS PATTERN TENDS TO FAVOR WARMTH AND DRYNESS
ALTHOUGH A BREAK OCCURS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE REGION NEEDS RAIN, HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE
THE CHCS ARE RATHER LOW GIVEN NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH.
WE USED A MODEL/CONTINUITY BLEND FOR SATURDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH A
00Z WPC GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY BLEND THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS
WERE THEN MADE AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING
OFFICES.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CRESTS ACROSS
THE AREA, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EASE EASTWARD. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE ONSHORE FLOW TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY.
THE ONSHORE FLOW HOWEVER PERSISTS SATURDAY WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
RESULT IN MORE CLOUDINESS FOR A TIME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME LIGHT QPF IN PORTIONS OF MARYLAND AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN DELAWARE, HOWEVER THIS IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE
GIVEN THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING SOUTHWARD. AS A RESULT, WE WENT
WITH A DRY FORECAST BUT DID CARRY MORE CLOUD COVER. A MUCH COOLER
DAY IS EXPECTED SATURDAY DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW. WE START TO LOSE
THE STRENGTH OF THE ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY, AND THEREFORE THE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO START REBOUNDING IN THE AFTERNOON
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BE MORE ACROSS THE INTERIOR
COMPARED TO THE COASTAL LOCALES.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO CLOSED LOW
TRACKING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA IS
FORECAST TO ALLOW FOR A FLATTER RIDGE IN THE EAST. THIS WILL ALSO
FORCE HIGH PRESSURE MORE OFFSHORE, AND A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
GRADUALLY SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY IS FORECAST TO TRACK INTO CANADA TUESDAY, THEREFORE THE
CHCS FOR CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE TO OUR WEST. AS THE FLOW IS
MORE SOUTHERLY, A RATHER WARM AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE WITH
SOME INCREASE IN THE DEW POINTS EACH DAY. THERE IS A WEAK SYSTEM
FORECAST TO BE OFF OF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS, HOWEVER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH GIVEN SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CLOSER TO OUR AREA.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE TROUGH TO
CLOSED LOW IS FOLLOWED BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST TO
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS MAY INDUCE A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE COLD
FRONT, SLOWING IT DOWN SOME MORE. THE COMBINATION OF THIS ALONG
WITH THE INITIAL ENERGY TRACKING WELL NORTH AND THE RIDGE FARTHER
SOUTH SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS TIMING WILL
GOVERNOR THE PROSPECTS FOR THE CONVECTIVE CHCS, HOWEVER THE WPC
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SURFACE FRONT MOVING IN DURING THURSDAY. THIS
SHOULD EXTEND THE PERIOD OF RATHER WARM CONDITIONS, HOWEVER THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY MAY SIGNAL A CHANGE. OVERALL, LOW
POPS ARE CARRIED MOSTLY THURSDAY AS THE FRONT ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SCATTERED MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN OUR REGION
UNTIL ABOUT 1300Z, THEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
BALANCE OF THE TAF PERIOD.

A DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHEAST SHOULD
OVERSPREAD OUR REGION TODAY. CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE
4000 FEET. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT 1600Z UNTIL
2200Z AND THEY HAVE BEEN MENTIONED FOR ALL OF OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT
KTTN AND KACY. CONDITIONS AROUND THOSE TWO TAF SITES AND POINTS TO
THE NORTHEAST SHOULD REMAIN MORE STABLE THAN AT LOCATIONS TO THE
SOUTHWEST. ALSO, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
BUT THE RISK IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

THE STRATOCUMULUS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF
OUR TAF SITES TONIGHT.

THE WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO FAVOR THE NORTHEAST AND EAST THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD AT SPEEDS FROM ABOUT 6 TO 12 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL, HOWEVER SOME CLOUDINESS IS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY MAINLY SOUTH OF KILG TO KACY. LOCALIZED FOG
POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. EAST-
NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS SATURDAY /STRONGEST CLOSER TO THE
COAST/, DIMINISHING SOME AND BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. SOUTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10
KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC TODAY AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT.

AN INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED AND WIND GUSTS SHOULD
INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, WE
HAVE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ALL BUT THE UPPER PART
OF DELAWARE BAY WHICH SHOULD BE SHELTERED FROM THE STRONGEST OF
THE GUSTS.

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEGINS AT NOON FOR OUR NORTHERN WATERS
AND AT 400 PM FOR OUR SOUTHERN WATERS AND FOR LOWER DELAWARE BAY.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BUILD TO 4 TO
6 FEET FOR LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD BUILD TO 2
TO 4 FEET ON LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND 1 TO 2 FEET ON THE UPPER BAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS CLOSER.
HOWEVER, STRONG ENOUGH FLOW WITHIN A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS FOR AWHILE MAINLY ON
THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. IT COULD BE CLOSE MAINLY IN THE
MORNING FOR LOWER DELAWARE BAY, HOWEVER AS OF NOW DID NOT TAKE THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEYOND 12Z GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE. THE SEAS
OF 4-6 FEET ARE EXPECTED ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AS A
RESULT OF THE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW, HOWEVER THESE SHOULD BE
SUBSIDING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THEY SHIFT FROM EAST-NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH. THE SEAS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO BE
BELOW 5 FEET.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE THREAT FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL BE ENHANCED FOR TODAY
AND THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

A DEVELOPING AND INCREASING NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TODAY. THE
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THE WINDS AND WAVES ALONG THE COAST
SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AS OF NOW, IN-
HOUSE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A SOLID MODERATE /POSSIBLY NEARING
HIGH/ FOR SATURDAY. THE RISK SHOULD LOWER SOME SUNDAY BUT IT MAY
STILL BE MODERATE.

IT IS PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT FOR SAFETY AWARENESS TO SHARE THIS
INFORMATION TO BEACHGOERS AND LIFEGUARDS WITH THE BEACH CROWD
ANTICIPATED TO BE LARGER THAN NORMAL GIVEN IT IS LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
RIP CURRENTS...GORSE/IOVINO



000
FXUS61 KPHI 040834
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
434 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY, THEN MOVE
THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WAS DROPPING THROUGH OUR REGION
REMAINED DIFFUSE AND RATHER DIFFICULT TO FIND AROUND 430 AM.
REGARDLESS, THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST IN MOST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY 800 AM.

AN AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS THAT WAS DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF NEW
ENGLAND AND THE ADJACENT WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
SOUTHWESTWARD AND OVER OUR REGION TODAY. AS A RESULT, WE ARE
ANTICIPATING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.

AN IMPULSE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD
OVER OUR REGION TODAY. IT MAY TOUCH OFF A FEW RAIN SHOWERS. THE
AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY IN OUR VICINITY IS FORECAST TO EXTEND
FROM CENTRAL VIRGINIA UP INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. WE WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, ON THE UPPER DELMARVA
AND IN PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY. LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST
AND IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY STABLE AND WILL LIKELY NOT EXPERIENCE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

THE CLOUD COVER AND THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 80S FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE DROP FROM QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND
FOR TONIGHT, DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO OUR REGION. SOME
CLEARING IS EXPECTED FROM THE NORTHEAST AND ANY CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE PUSHED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.

THE WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR TONIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS. READINGS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE POCONO REGION
AND IN FAR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST AND A
TROUGH IN THE WEST. AS THE TROUGH EJECTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THE PORTION OF THE
RIDGE IN THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN.
THE TROUGH OR ANOTHER ONE BEHIND IT GRADUALLY SLIDES EAST-
NORTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY, HOWEVER THE RIDGE WHILE GETTING PUSHED
SOUTHEASTWARD IT TENDS TO SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
INCOMING SYSTEM. THIS PATTERN TENDS TO FAVOR WARMTH AND DRYNESS
ALTHOUGH A BREAK OCCURS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE REGION NEEDS RAIN, HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE
THE CHCS ARE RATHER LOW GIVEN NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH.
WE USED A MODEL/CONTINUITY BLEND FOR SATURDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH A
00Z WPC GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY BLEND THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS
WERE THEN MADE AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING
OFFICES.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CRESTS ACROSS
THE AREA, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EASE EASTWARD. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE ONSHORE FLOW TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY.
THE ONSHORE FLOW HOWEVER PERSISTS SATURDAY WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
RESULT IN MORE CLOUDINESS FOR A TIME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME LIGHT QPF IN PORTIONS OF MARYLAND AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN DELAWARE, HOWEVER THIS IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE
GIVEN THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING SOUTHWARD. AS A RESULT, WE WENT
WITH A DRY FORECAST BUT DID CARRY MORE CLOUD COVER. A MUCH COOLER
DAY IS EXPECTED SATURDAY DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW. WE START TO LOSE
THE STRENGTH OF THE ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY, AND THEREFORE THE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO START REBOUNDING IN THE AFTERNOON
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BE MORE ACROSS THE INTERIOR
COMPARED TO THE COASTAL LOCALES.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO CLOSED LOW
TRACKING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA IS
FORECAST TO ALLOW FOR A FLATTER RIDGE IN THE EAST. THIS WILL ALSO
FORCE HIGH PRESSURE MORE OFFSHORE, AND A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
GRADUALLY SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY IS FORECAST TO TRACK INTO CANADA TUESDAY, THEREFORE THE
CHCS FOR CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE TO OUR WEST. AS THE FLOW IS
MORE SOUTHERLY, A RATHER WARM AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE WITH
SOME INCREASE IN THE DEW POINTS EACH DAY. THERE IS A WEAK SYSTEM
FORECAST TO BE OFF OF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS, HOWEVER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH GIVEN SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CLOSER TO OUR AREA.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE TROUGH TO
CLOSED LOW IS FOLLOWED BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST TO
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS MAY INDUCE A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE COLD
FRONT, SLOWING IT DOWN SOME MORE. THE COMBINATION OF THIS ALONG
WITH THE INITIAL ENERGY TRACKING WELL NORTH AND THE RIDGE FARTHER
SOUTH SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS TIMING WILL
GOVERNOR THE PROSPECTS FOR THE CONVECTIVE CHCS, HOWEVER THE WPC
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SURFACE FRONT MOVING IN DURING THURSDAY. THIS
SHOULD EXTEND THE PERIOD OF RATHER WARM CONDITIONS, HOWEVER THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY MAY SIGNAL A CHANGE. OVERALL, LOW
POPS ARE CARRIED MOSTLY THURSDAY AS THE FRONT ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SCATTERED MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN OUR REGION
UNTIL ABOUT 1300Z, THEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
BALANCE OF THE TAF PERIOD.

A DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHEAST SHOULD
OVERSPREAD OUR REGION TODAY. CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE
4000 FEET. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT 1600Z UNTIL
2200Z AND THEY HAVE BEEN MENTIONED FOR ALL OF OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT
KTTN AND KACY. CONDITIONS AROUND THOSE TWO TAF SITES AND POINTS TO
THE NORTHEAST SHOULD REMAIN MORE STABLE THAN AT LOCATIONS TO THE
SOUTHWEST. ALSO, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
BUT THE RISK IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

THE STRATOCUMULUS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF
OUR TAF SITES TONIGHT.

THE WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO FAVOR THE NORTHEAST AND EAST THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD AT SPEEDS FROM ABOUT 6 TO 12 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL, HOWEVER SOME CLOUDINESS IS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY MAINLY SOUTH OF KILG TO KACY. LOCALIZED FOG
POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. EAST-
NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS SATURDAY /STRONGEST CLOSER TO THE
COAST/, DIMINISHING SOME AND BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. SOUTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10
KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC TODAY AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT.

AN INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED AND WIND GUSTS SHOULD
INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, WE
HAVE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ALL BUT THE UPPER PART
OF DELAWARE BAY WHICH SHOULD BE SHELTERED FROM THE STRONGEST OF
THE GUSTS.

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEGINS AT NOON FOR OUR NORTHERN WATERS
AND AT 400 PM FOR OUR SOUTHERN WATERS AND FOR LOWER DELAWARE BAY.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BUILD TO 4 TO
6 FEET FOR LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD BUILD TO 2
TO 4 FEET ON LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND 1 TO 2 FEET ON THE UPPER BAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS CLOSER.
HOWEVER, STRONG ENOUGH FLOW WITHIN A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS FOR AWHILE MAINLY ON
THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. IT COULD BE CLOSE MAINLY IN THE
MORNING FOR LOWER DELAWARE BAY, HOWEVER AS OF NOW DID NOT TAKE THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEYOND 12Z GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE. THE SEAS
OF 4-6 FEET ARE EXPECTED ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AS A
RESULT OF THE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW, HOWEVER THESE SHOULD BE
SUBSIDING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THEY SHIFT FROM EAST-NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH. THE SEAS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO BE
BELOW 5 FEET.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE THREAT FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL BE ENHANCED FOR TODAY
AND THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

A DEVELOPING AND INCREASING NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TODAY. THE
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THE WINDS AND WAVES ALONG THE COAST
SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AS OF NOW, IN-
HOUSE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A SOLID MODERATE /POSSIBLY NEARING
HIGH/ FOR SATURDAY. THE RISK SHOULD LOWER SOME SUNDAY BUT IT MAY
STILL BE MODERATE.

IT IS PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT FOR SAFETY AWARENESS TO SHARE THIS
INFORMATION TO BEACHGOERS AND LIFEGUARDS WITH THE BEACH CROWD
ANTICIPATED TO BE LARGER THAN NORMAL GIVEN IT IS LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
RIP CURRENTS...GORSE/IOVINO



000
FXUS61 KPHI 040834
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
434 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY, THEN MOVE
THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WAS DROPPING THROUGH OUR REGION
REMAINED DIFFUSE AND RATHER DIFFICULT TO FIND AROUND 430 AM.
REGARDLESS, THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST IN MOST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY 800 AM.

AN AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS THAT WAS DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF NEW
ENGLAND AND THE ADJACENT WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
SOUTHWESTWARD AND OVER OUR REGION TODAY. AS A RESULT, WE ARE
ANTICIPATING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.

AN IMPULSE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD
OVER OUR REGION TODAY. IT MAY TOUCH OFF A FEW RAIN SHOWERS. THE
AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY IN OUR VICINITY IS FORECAST TO EXTEND
FROM CENTRAL VIRGINIA UP INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. WE WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, ON THE UPPER DELMARVA
AND IN PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY. LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST
AND IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY STABLE AND WILL LIKELY NOT EXPERIENCE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

THE CLOUD COVER AND THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 80S FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE DROP FROM QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND
FOR TONIGHT, DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO OUR REGION. SOME
CLEARING IS EXPECTED FROM THE NORTHEAST AND ANY CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE PUSHED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.

THE WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR TONIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS. READINGS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE POCONO REGION
AND IN FAR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST AND A
TROUGH IN THE WEST. AS THE TROUGH EJECTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THE PORTION OF THE
RIDGE IN THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN.
THE TROUGH OR ANOTHER ONE BEHIND IT GRADUALLY SLIDES EAST-
NORTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY, HOWEVER THE RIDGE WHILE GETTING PUSHED
SOUTHEASTWARD IT TENDS TO SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
INCOMING SYSTEM. THIS PATTERN TENDS TO FAVOR WARMTH AND DRYNESS
ALTHOUGH A BREAK OCCURS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE REGION NEEDS RAIN, HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE
THE CHCS ARE RATHER LOW GIVEN NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH.
WE USED A MODEL/CONTINUITY BLEND FOR SATURDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH A
00Z WPC GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY BLEND THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS
WERE THEN MADE AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING
OFFICES.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CRESTS ACROSS
THE AREA, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EASE EASTWARD. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE ONSHORE FLOW TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY.
THE ONSHORE FLOW HOWEVER PERSISTS SATURDAY WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
RESULT IN MORE CLOUDINESS FOR A TIME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME LIGHT QPF IN PORTIONS OF MARYLAND AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN DELAWARE, HOWEVER THIS IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE
GIVEN THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING SOUTHWARD. AS A RESULT, WE WENT
WITH A DRY FORECAST BUT DID CARRY MORE CLOUD COVER. A MUCH COOLER
DAY IS EXPECTED SATURDAY DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW. WE START TO LOSE
THE STRENGTH OF THE ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY, AND THEREFORE THE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO START REBOUNDING IN THE AFTERNOON
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BE MORE ACROSS THE INTERIOR
COMPARED TO THE COASTAL LOCALES.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO CLOSED LOW
TRACKING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA IS
FORECAST TO ALLOW FOR A FLATTER RIDGE IN THE EAST. THIS WILL ALSO
FORCE HIGH PRESSURE MORE OFFSHORE, AND A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
GRADUALLY SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY IS FORECAST TO TRACK INTO CANADA TUESDAY, THEREFORE THE
CHCS FOR CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE TO OUR WEST. AS THE FLOW IS
MORE SOUTHERLY, A RATHER WARM AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE WITH
SOME INCREASE IN THE DEW POINTS EACH DAY. THERE IS A WEAK SYSTEM
FORECAST TO BE OFF OF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS, HOWEVER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH GIVEN SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CLOSER TO OUR AREA.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE TROUGH TO
CLOSED LOW IS FOLLOWED BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST TO
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS MAY INDUCE A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE COLD
FRONT, SLOWING IT DOWN SOME MORE. THE COMBINATION OF THIS ALONG
WITH THE INITIAL ENERGY TRACKING WELL NORTH AND THE RIDGE FARTHER
SOUTH SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS TIMING WILL
GOVERNOR THE PROSPECTS FOR THE CONVECTIVE CHCS, HOWEVER THE WPC
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SURFACE FRONT MOVING IN DURING THURSDAY. THIS
SHOULD EXTEND THE PERIOD OF RATHER WARM CONDITIONS, HOWEVER THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY MAY SIGNAL A CHANGE. OVERALL, LOW
POPS ARE CARRIED MOSTLY THURSDAY AS THE FRONT ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SCATTERED MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN OUR REGION
UNTIL ABOUT 1300Z, THEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
BALANCE OF THE TAF PERIOD.

A DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHEAST SHOULD
OVERSPREAD OUR REGION TODAY. CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE
4000 FEET. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT 1600Z UNTIL
2200Z AND THEY HAVE BEEN MENTIONED FOR ALL OF OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT
KTTN AND KACY. CONDITIONS AROUND THOSE TWO TAF SITES AND POINTS TO
THE NORTHEAST SHOULD REMAIN MORE STABLE THAN AT LOCATIONS TO THE
SOUTHWEST. ALSO, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
BUT THE RISK IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

THE STRATOCUMULUS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF
OUR TAF SITES TONIGHT.

THE WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO FAVOR THE NORTHEAST AND EAST THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD AT SPEEDS FROM ABOUT 6 TO 12 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL, HOWEVER SOME CLOUDINESS IS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY MAINLY SOUTH OF KILG TO KACY. LOCALIZED FOG
POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. EAST-
NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS SATURDAY /STRONGEST CLOSER TO THE
COAST/, DIMINISHING SOME AND BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. SOUTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10
KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC TODAY AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT.

AN INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED AND WIND GUSTS SHOULD
INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, WE
HAVE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ALL BUT THE UPPER PART
OF DELAWARE BAY WHICH SHOULD BE SHELTERED FROM THE STRONGEST OF
THE GUSTS.

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEGINS AT NOON FOR OUR NORTHERN WATERS
AND AT 400 PM FOR OUR SOUTHERN WATERS AND FOR LOWER DELAWARE BAY.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BUILD TO 4 TO
6 FEET FOR LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD BUILD TO 2
TO 4 FEET ON LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND 1 TO 2 FEET ON THE UPPER BAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS CLOSER.
HOWEVER, STRONG ENOUGH FLOW WITHIN A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS FOR AWHILE MAINLY ON
THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. IT COULD BE CLOSE MAINLY IN THE
MORNING FOR LOWER DELAWARE BAY, HOWEVER AS OF NOW DID NOT TAKE THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEYOND 12Z GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE. THE SEAS
OF 4-6 FEET ARE EXPECTED ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AS A
RESULT OF THE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW, HOWEVER THESE SHOULD BE
SUBSIDING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THEY SHIFT FROM EAST-NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH. THE SEAS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO BE
BELOW 5 FEET.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE THREAT FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL BE ENHANCED FOR TODAY
AND THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

A DEVELOPING AND INCREASING NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TODAY. THE
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THE WINDS AND WAVES ALONG THE COAST
SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AS OF NOW, IN-
HOUSE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A SOLID MODERATE /POSSIBLY NEARING
HIGH/ FOR SATURDAY. THE RISK SHOULD LOWER SOME SUNDAY BUT IT MAY
STILL BE MODERATE.

IT IS PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT FOR SAFETY AWARENESS TO SHARE THIS
INFORMATION TO BEACHGOERS AND LIFEGUARDS WITH THE BEACH CROWD
ANTICIPATED TO BE LARGER THAN NORMAL GIVEN IT IS LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
RIP CURRENTS...GORSE/IOVINO



000
FXUS61 KPHI 040834
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
434 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY, THEN MOVE
THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WAS DROPPING THROUGH OUR REGION
REMAINED DIFFUSE AND RATHER DIFFICULT TO FIND AROUND 430 AM.
REGARDLESS, THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST IN MOST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY 800 AM.

AN AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS THAT WAS DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF NEW
ENGLAND AND THE ADJACENT WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
SOUTHWESTWARD AND OVER OUR REGION TODAY. AS A RESULT, WE ARE
ANTICIPATING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.

AN IMPULSE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD
OVER OUR REGION TODAY. IT MAY TOUCH OFF A FEW RAIN SHOWERS. THE
AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY IN OUR VICINITY IS FORECAST TO EXTEND
FROM CENTRAL VIRGINIA UP INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. WE WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, ON THE UPPER DELMARVA
AND IN PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY. LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST
AND IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY STABLE AND WILL LIKELY NOT EXPERIENCE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

THE CLOUD COVER AND THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 80S FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE DROP FROM QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND
FOR TONIGHT, DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO OUR REGION. SOME
CLEARING IS EXPECTED FROM THE NORTHEAST AND ANY CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE PUSHED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.

THE WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR TONIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS. READINGS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE POCONO REGION
AND IN FAR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST AND A
TROUGH IN THE WEST. AS THE TROUGH EJECTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THE PORTION OF THE
RIDGE IN THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN.
THE TROUGH OR ANOTHER ONE BEHIND IT GRADUALLY SLIDES EAST-
NORTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY, HOWEVER THE RIDGE WHILE GETTING PUSHED
SOUTHEASTWARD IT TENDS TO SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
INCOMING SYSTEM. THIS PATTERN TENDS TO FAVOR WARMTH AND DRYNESS
ALTHOUGH A BREAK OCCURS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE REGION NEEDS RAIN, HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE
THE CHCS ARE RATHER LOW GIVEN NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH.
WE USED A MODEL/CONTINUITY BLEND FOR SATURDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH A
00Z WPC GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY BLEND THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS
WERE THEN MADE AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING
OFFICES.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CRESTS ACROSS
THE AREA, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EASE EASTWARD. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE ONSHORE FLOW TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY.
THE ONSHORE FLOW HOWEVER PERSISTS SATURDAY WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
RESULT IN MORE CLOUDINESS FOR A TIME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME LIGHT QPF IN PORTIONS OF MARYLAND AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN DELAWARE, HOWEVER THIS IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE
GIVEN THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING SOUTHWARD. AS A RESULT, WE WENT
WITH A DRY FORECAST BUT DID CARRY MORE CLOUD COVER. A MUCH COOLER
DAY IS EXPECTED SATURDAY DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW. WE START TO LOSE
THE STRENGTH OF THE ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY, AND THEREFORE THE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO START REBOUNDING IN THE AFTERNOON
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BE MORE ACROSS THE INTERIOR
COMPARED TO THE COASTAL LOCALES.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO CLOSED LOW
TRACKING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA IS
FORECAST TO ALLOW FOR A FLATTER RIDGE IN THE EAST. THIS WILL ALSO
FORCE HIGH PRESSURE MORE OFFSHORE, AND A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
GRADUALLY SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY IS FORECAST TO TRACK INTO CANADA TUESDAY, THEREFORE THE
CHCS FOR CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE TO OUR WEST. AS THE FLOW IS
MORE SOUTHERLY, A RATHER WARM AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE WITH
SOME INCREASE IN THE DEW POINTS EACH DAY. THERE IS A WEAK SYSTEM
FORECAST TO BE OFF OF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS, HOWEVER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH GIVEN SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CLOSER TO OUR AREA.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE TROUGH TO
CLOSED LOW IS FOLLOWED BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST TO
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS MAY INDUCE A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE COLD
FRONT, SLOWING IT DOWN SOME MORE. THE COMBINATION OF THIS ALONG
WITH THE INITIAL ENERGY TRACKING WELL NORTH AND THE RIDGE FARTHER
SOUTH SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS TIMING WILL
GOVERNOR THE PROSPECTS FOR THE CONVECTIVE CHCS, HOWEVER THE WPC
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SURFACE FRONT MOVING IN DURING THURSDAY. THIS
SHOULD EXTEND THE PERIOD OF RATHER WARM CONDITIONS, HOWEVER THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY MAY SIGNAL A CHANGE. OVERALL, LOW
POPS ARE CARRIED MOSTLY THURSDAY AS THE FRONT ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SCATTERED MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN OUR REGION
UNTIL ABOUT 1300Z, THEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
BALANCE OF THE TAF PERIOD.

A DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHEAST SHOULD
OVERSPREAD OUR REGION TODAY. CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE
4000 FEET. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT 1600Z UNTIL
2200Z AND THEY HAVE BEEN MENTIONED FOR ALL OF OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT
KTTN AND KACY. CONDITIONS AROUND THOSE TWO TAF SITES AND POINTS TO
THE NORTHEAST SHOULD REMAIN MORE STABLE THAN AT LOCATIONS TO THE
SOUTHWEST. ALSO, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
BUT THE RISK IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

THE STRATOCUMULUS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF
OUR TAF SITES TONIGHT.

THE WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO FAVOR THE NORTHEAST AND EAST THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD AT SPEEDS FROM ABOUT 6 TO 12 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL, HOWEVER SOME CLOUDINESS IS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY MAINLY SOUTH OF KILG TO KACY. LOCALIZED FOG
POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. EAST-
NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS SATURDAY /STRONGEST CLOSER TO THE
COAST/, DIMINISHING SOME AND BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. SOUTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10
KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC TODAY AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT.

AN INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED AND WIND GUSTS SHOULD
INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, WE
HAVE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ALL BUT THE UPPER PART
OF DELAWARE BAY WHICH SHOULD BE SHELTERED FROM THE STRONGEST OF
THE GUSTS.

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEGINS AT NOON FOR OUR NORTHERN WATERS
AND AT 400 PM FOR OUR SOUTHERN WATERS AND FOR LOWER DELAWARE BAY.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BUILD TO 4 TO
6 FEET FOR LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD BUILD TO 2
TO 4 FEET ON LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND 1 TO 2 FEET ON THE UPPER BAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS CLOSER.
HOWEVER, STRONG ENOUGH FLOW WITHIN A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS FOR AWHILE MAINLY ON
THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. IT COULD BE CLOSE MAINLY IN THE
MORNING FOR LOWER DELAWARE BAY, HOWEVER AS OF NOW DID NOT TAKE THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEYOND 12Z GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE. THE SEAS
OF 4-6 FEET ARE EXPECTED ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AS A
RESULT OF THE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW, HOWEVER THESE SHOULD BE
SUBSIDING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THEY SHIFT FROM EAST-NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH. THE SEAS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO BE
BELOW 5 FEET.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE THREAT FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL BE ENHANCED FOR TODAY
AND THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

A DEVELOPING AND INCREASING NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TODAY. THE
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THE WINDS AND WAVES ALONG THE COAST
SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AS OF NOW, IN-
HOUSE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A SOLID MODERATE /POSSIBLY NEARING
HIGH/ FOR SATURDAY. THE RISK SHOULD LOWER SOME SUNDAY BUT IT MAY
STILL BE MODERATE.

IT IS PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT FOR SAFETY AWARENESS TO SHARE THIS
INFORMATION TO BEACHGOERS AND LIFEGUARDS WITH THE BEACH CROWD
ANTICIPATED TO BE LARGER THAN NORMAL GIVEN IT IS LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
RIP CURRENTS...GORSE/IOVINO



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 040823
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
423 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOME MUCH
NEEDED RAIN TO MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. WITHIN THE RAIN SHIELD...ISOLATED CONVECTION WITH HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL THE ACTIVITY DISSIPATES THIS MORNING.

SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE DIURNALLY SUPPORTED CONVECTION IS AGAIN
EXPECTED TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE SWINGS
THROUGH. NO CHANGE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH IS PROJECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD
ACROSS PA UNDER A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE
AND WARMTH ALOFT SHOULD INHIBIT DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. RELIEF FROM THE
QUITE WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH COLD FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...AS WELL AS AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FAIRLY COMMON OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT IN THE
IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EMANATING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS EASTERN OHIO FROM AROUND KZZV TO JUST NORTH OF KHLG.
CONDITIONS WILL BRIEFLY BE VFR THERE DUE TO ENHANCED SURFACE
MIXING. HOWEVER...RAINFALL YESTERDAY HAS ALLOWED FOR AMPLE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO RESIDE ACROSS ALL SITES FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS TO REDEVELOP OR CONTINUE...WITH LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS
WHERE THE MOST RAIN FALL TODAY...SUCH AS IN THE VALLEY AROUND
KHLG. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY NOON TODAY...HOWEVER A FEW TS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON...THOUGH COVERAGE AND TIMING IS TOO
UNCERTAIN FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN PROB30 WORDING AT THE MOMENT.
FRIES

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED IN EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 040823
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
423 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOME MUCH
NEEDED RAIN TO MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. WITHIN THE RAIN SHIELD...ISOLATED CONVECTION WITH HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL THE ACTIVITY DISSIPATES THIS MORNING.

SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE DIURNALLY SUPPORTED CONVECTION IS AGAIN
EXPECTED TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE SWINGS
THROUGH. NO CHANGE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH IS PROJECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD
ACROSS PA UNDER A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE
AND WARMTH ALOFT SHOULD INHIBIT DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. RELIEF FROM THE
QUITE WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH COLD FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...AS WELL AS AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FAIRLY COMMON OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT IN THE
IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EMANATING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS EASTERN OHIO FROM AROUND KZZV TO JUST NORTH OF KHLG.
CONDITIONS WILL BRIEFLY BE VFR THERE DUE TO ENHANCED SURFACE
MIXING. HOWEVER...RAINFALL YESTERDAY HAS ALLOWED FOR AMPLE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO RESIDE ACROSS ALL SITES FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS TO REDEVELOP OR CONTINUE...WITH LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS
WHERE THE MOST RAIN FALL TODAY...SUCH AS IN THE VALLEY AROUND
KHLG. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY NOON TODAY...HOWEVER A FEW TS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON...THOUGH COVERAGE AND TIMING IS TOO
UNCERTAIN FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN PROB30 WORDING AT THE MOMENT.
FRIES

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED IN EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 040823
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
423 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOME MUCH
NEEDED RAIN TO MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. WITHIN THE RAIN SHIELD...ISOLATED CONVECTION WITH HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL THE ACTIVITY DISSIPATES THIS MORNING.

SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE DIURNALLY SUPPORTED CONVECTION IS AGAIN
EXPECTED TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE SWINGS
THROUGH. NO CHANGE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH IS PROJECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD
ACROSS PA UNDER A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE
AND WARMTH ALOFT SHOULD INHIBIT DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. RELIEF FROM THE
QUITE WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH COLD FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...AS WELL AS AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FAIRLY COMMON OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT IN THE
IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EMANATING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS EASTERN OHIO FROM AROUND KZZV TO JUST NORTH OF KHLG.
CONDITIONS WILL BRIEFLY BE VFR THERE DUE TO ENHANCED SURFACE
MIXING. HOWEVER...RAINFALL YESTERDAY HAS ALLOWED FOR AMPLE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO RESIDE ACROSS ALL SITES FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS TO REDEVELOP OR CONTINUE...WITH LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS
WHERE THE MOST RAIN FALL TODAY...SUCH AS IN THE VALLEY AROUND
KHLG. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY NOON TODAY...HOWEVER A FEW TS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON...THOUGH COVERAGE AND TIMING IS TOO
UNCERTAIN FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN PROB30 WORDING AT THE MOMENT.
FRIES

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED IN EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 040823
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
423 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOME MUCH
NEEDED RAIN TO MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. WITHIN THE RAIN SHIELD...ISOLATED CONVECTION WITH HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL THE ACTIVITY DISSIPATES THIS MORNING.

SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE DIURNALLY SUPPORTED CONVECTION IS AGAIN
EXPECTED TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE SWINGS
THROUGH. NO CHANGE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH IS PROJECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD
ACROSS PA UNDER A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE
AND WARMTH ALOFT SHOULD INHIBIT DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. RELIEF FROM THE
QUITE WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH COLD FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...AS WELL AS AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FAIRLY COMMON OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT IN THE
IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EMANATING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS EASTERN OHIO FROM AROUND KZZV TO JUST NORTH OF KHLG.
CONDITIONS WILL BRIEFLY BE VFR THERE DUE TO ENHANCED SURFACE
MIXING. HOWEVER...RAINFALL YESTERDAY HAS ALLOWED FOR AMPLE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO RESIDE ACROSS ALL SITES FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS TO REDEVELOP OR CONTINUE...WITH LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS
WHERE THE MOST RAIN FALL TODAY...SUCH AS IN THE VALLEY AROUND
KHLG. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY NOON TODAY...HOWEVER A FEW TS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON...THOUGH COVERAGE AND TIMING IS TOO
UNCERTAIN FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN PROB30 WORDING AT THE MOMENT.
FRIES

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED IN EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 040823
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
423 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOME MUCH
NEEDED RAIN TO MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. WITHIN THE RAIN SHIELD...ISOLATED CONVECTION WITH HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL THE ACTIVITY DISSIPATES THIS MORNING.

SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE DIURNALLY SUPPORTED CONVECTION IS AGAIN
EXPECTED TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE SWINGS
THROUGH. NO CHANGE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH IS PROJECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD
ACROSS PA UNDER A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE
AND WARMTH ALOFT SHOULD INHIBIT DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. RELIEF FROM THE
QUITE WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH COLD FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...AS WELL AS AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FAIRLY COMMON OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT IN THE
IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EMANATING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS EASTERN OHIO FROM AROUND KZZV TO JUST NORTH OF KHLG.
CONDITIONS WILL BRIEFLY BE VFR THERE DUE TO ENHANCED SURFACE
MIXING. HOWEVER...RAINFALL YESTERDAY HAS ALLOWED FOR AMPLE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO RESIDE ACROSS ALL SITES FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS TO REDEVELOP OR CONTINUE...WITH LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS
WHERE THE MOST RAIN FALL TODAY...SUCH AS IN THE VALLEY AROUND
KHLG. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY NOON TODAY...HOWEVER A FEW TS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON...THOUGH COVERAGE AND TIMING IS TOO
UNCERTAIN FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN PROB30 WORDING AT THE MOMENT.
FRIES

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED IN EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KLWX 040759 CCA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
359 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE
WATERS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
WEAKEN TODAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND BUILDS SOUTHWARD.

CLOUDS ARE DISSIPATING FROM EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING MAKING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. PATCHY FOG HAS
DEVELOPED THIS MORNING DUE TO THE CALM WINDS AND RECENT MOISTURE
FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHES OF DENSE FOG ARE POSSIBLE
IN LOW LYING AREAS. FOG WILL DISSAPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL BUILD SOUTH TODAY PUSHING A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG
SOUTHWARD TODAY MOVING ACROSS THE MD/PA BORDER THIS MORNING AND
REACHING NOVA/DC/S MD BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME EASTERLY AS
THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD WHICH WILL ADVECT IN MARINE CONDITIONS
TODAY. DUE TO THE HIGH DEWPTS AND THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND SOUTH OF DC TODAY AS THIS AREA WILL BE UNSTABLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY BE COOLER THAN PREV DAYS THIS WEEK WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW TO MID 80S. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH AND LIKELY
STALL ACROSS CENTRAL VA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT. EASTERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE
LOW CLOUDS TO FORM LATE TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
STRATUS WILL BE SLOW TO DISSAPATE ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND AGAINST THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD SATURDAY
AND COOLER DRIER AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. CLEARING
WILL INCREASE FROM N- S AS WELL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SW WHERE
THE FRONT MAY STILL BE LOCATED. TEMPS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...SFC HIGH PRES OVER
THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP A DRY ENE FLOW AND COMFORTABLE TEMPS
THROUGH MON. SFC HIGH WEAKENS MORE RAPIDLY MON THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK WHILE MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE MID ATLC
RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND. IS NOT REALLY UNTIL WED WHEN SFC
HIGH WEAKENS ENOUGH TO ALLOW MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE AREA. WILL
KEEP FCST DRY THROUGH TUE NIGHT THEN BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND T-STORMS WED AFTERNOON WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THU FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A SLOW MOVING CDFNT CROSSING THE
AREA THU OR THU NIGHT BUT SHOW SIG DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING AND WHETHER FRONT CLEARS THE ENTIRE AREA OR NOT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING AS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS AT MRB-CHO-IAD. IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY AT MRB/CHO THIS MORNING. FOG DISSAPATES AFTER SUNRISE AND
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE S TODAY. N WINDS BECOME NE-E FROM N TO S TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SHRA/VCTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE
AT MRB-CHO-IAD. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS. ACTIVITY DIMINISHES TONIGHT. EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY
CAUSE SUB-MVFR CIGS TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. LOW CIGS WILL
LIKELY TAKE THE LONGEST TO IMPROVE AT CHO SATURDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR OCCURS FROM N TO S SATURDAY.

NO AVIATION CONCERNS BEYOND SAT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...N WINDS BECOME NE-E TODAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS FROM N-S. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR GUSTY WINDS ON THE BAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ACROSS THE UPPER TIDAL
POTOMAC AS IT IS CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE HIGH.

SCA MAY LINGER OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER BAY INTO THE FIRS PART OF SUN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ANOMALIES HAVE INCREASED TO ABOUT A
HALF FOOT AS LIGHT N-NW FLOW OCCURS ON THE WATERS. THE FLOW WILL
TURN TO THE EAST TODAY BUT IT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP WATER
LEVELS BELOW FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE NEAR TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

&&

.CLIMATE...WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...SOME SITES MAY
APPROACH RECORD DAILY HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

BELOW IS A TABLE OF RECORD DAILY HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR
SEPTEMBER 4TH.

SITE.....RECORD MAX MIN FOR SEP 4................
DCA...76 (SET IN 2012 AND 1953)..................
BWI...75 (SET IN 2012/1953/1944/1937 AND 1932)...
IAD...71 (SET IN 2012)...........................

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...HAS/LFR
MARINE...HAS/LFR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HAS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 040759 CCA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
359 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE
WATERS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
WEAKEN TODAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND BUILDS SOUTHWARD.

CLOUDS ARE DISSIPATING FROM EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING MAKING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. PATCHY FOG HAS
DEVELOPED THIS MORNING DUE TO THE CALM WINDS AND RECENT MOISTURE
FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHES OF DENSE FOG ARE POSSIBLE
IN LOW LYING AREAS. FOG WILL DISSAPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL BUILD SOUTH TODAY PUSHING A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG
SOUTHWARD TODAY MOVING ACROSS THE MD/PA BORDER THIS MORNING AND
REACHING NOVA/DC/S MD BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME EASTERLY AS
THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD WHICH WILL ADVECT IN MARINE CONDITIONS
TODAY. DUE TO THE HIGH DEWPTS AND THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND SOUTH OF DC TODAY AS THIS AREA WILL BE UNSTABLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY BE COOLER THAN PREV DAYS THIS WEEK WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW TO MID 80S. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH AND LIKELY
STALL ACROSS CENTRAL VA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT. EASTERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE
LOW CLOUDS TO FORM LATE TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
STRATUS WILL BE SLOW TO DISSAPATE ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND AGAINST THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD SATURDAY
AND COOLER DRIER AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. CLEARING
WILL INCREASE FROM N- S AS WELL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SW WHERE
THE FRONT MAY STILL BE LOCATED. TEMPS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...SFC HIGH PRES OVER
THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP A DRY ENE FLOW AND COMFORTABLE TEMPS
THROUGH MON. SFC HIGH WEAKENS MORE RAPIDLY MON THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK WHILE MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE MID ATLC
RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND. IS NOT REALLY UNTIL WED WHEN SFC
HIGH WEAKENS ENOUGH TO ALLOW MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE AREA. WILL
KEEP FCST DRY THROUGH TUE NIGHT THEN BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND T-STORMS WED AFTERNOON WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THU FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A SLOW MOVING CDFNT CROSSING THE
AREA THU OR THU NIGHT BUT SHOW SIG DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING AND WHETHER FRONT CLEARS THE ENTIRE AREA OR NOT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING AS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS AT MRB-CHO-IAD. IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY AT MRB/CHO THIS MORNING. FOG DISSAPATES AFTER SUNRISE AND
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE S TODAY. N WINDS BECOME NE-E FROM N TO S TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SHRA/VCTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE
AT MRB-CHO-IAD. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS. ACTIVITY DIMINISHES TONIGHT. EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY
CAUSE SUB-MVFR CIGS TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. LOW CIGS WILL
LIKELY TAKE THE LONGEST TO IMPROVE AT CHO SATURDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR OCCURS FROM N TO S SATURDAY.

NO AVIATION CONCERNS BEYOND SAT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...N WINDS BECOME NE-E TODAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS FROM N-S. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR GUSTY WINDS ON THE BAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ACROSS THE UPPER TIDAL
POTOMAC AS IT IS CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE HIGH.

SCA MAY LINGER OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER BAY INTO THE FIRS PART OF SUN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ANOMALIES HAVE INCREASED TO ABOUT A
HALF FOOT AS LIGHT N-NW FLOW OCCURS ON THE WATERS. THE FLOW WILL
TURN TO THE EAST TODAY BUT IT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP WATER
LEVELS BELOW FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE NEAR TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

&&

.CLIMATE...WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...SOME SITES MAY
APPROACH RECORD DAILY HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

BELOW IS A TABLE OF RECORD DAILY HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR
SEPTEMBER 4TH.

SITE.....RECORD MAX MIN FOR SEP 4................
DCA...76 (SET IN 2012 AND 1953)..................
BWI...75 (SET IN 2012/1953/1944/1937 AND 1932)...
IAD...71 (SET IN 2012)...........................

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...HAS/LFR
MARINE...HAS/LFR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HAS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 040759 CCA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
359 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE
WATERS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
WEAKEN TODAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND BUILDS SOUTHWARD.

CLOUDS ARE DISSIPATING FROM EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING MAKING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. PATCHY FOG HAS
DEVELOPED THIS MORNING DUE TO THE CALM WINDS AND RECENT MOISTURE
FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHES OF DENSE FOG ARE POSSIBLE
IN LOW LYING AREAS. FOG WILL DISSAPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL BUILD SOUTH TODAY PUSHING A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG
SOUTHWARD TODAY MOVING ACROSS THE MD/PA BORDER THIS MORNING AND
REACHING NOVA/DC/S MD BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME EASTERLY AS
THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD WHICH WILL ADVECT IN MARINE CONDITIONS
TODAY. DUE TO THE HIGH DEWPTS AND THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND SOUTH OF DC TODAY AS THIS AREA WILL BE UNSTABLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY BE COOLER THAN PREV DAYS THIS WEEK WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW TO MID 80S. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH AND LIKELY
STALL ACROSS CENTRAL VA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT. EASTERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE
LOW CLOUDS TO FORM LATE TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
STRATUS WILL BE SLOW TO DISSAPATE ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND AGAINST THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD SATURDAY
AND COOLER DRIER AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. CLEARING
WILL INCREASE FROM N- S AS WELL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SW WHERE
THE FRONT MAY STILL BE LOCATED. TEMPS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...SFC HIGH PRES OVER
THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP A DRY ENE FLOW AND COMFORTABLE TEMPS
THROUGH MON. SFC HIGH WEAKENS MORE RAPIDLY MON THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK WHILE MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE MID ATLC
RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND. IS NOT REALLY UNTIL WED WHEN SFC
HIGH WEAKENS ENOUGH TO ALLOW MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE AREA. WILL
KEEP FCST DRY THROUGH TUE NIGHT THEN BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND T-STORMS WED AFTERNOON WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THU FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A SLOW MOVING CDFNT CROSSING THE
AREA THU OR THU NIGHT BUT SHOW SIG DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING AND WHETHER FRONT CLEARS THE ENTIRE AREA OR NOT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING AS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS AT MRB-CHO-IAD. IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY AT MRB/CHO THIS MORNING. FOG DISSAPATES AFTER SUNRISE AND
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE S TODAY. N WINDS BECOME NE-E FROM N TO S TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SHRA/VCTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE
AT MRB-CHO-IAD. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS. ACTIVITY DIMINISHES TONIGHT. EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY
CAUSE SUB-MVFR CIGS TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. LOW CIGS WILL
LIKELY TAKE THE LONGEST TO IMPROVE AT CHO SATURDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR OCCURS FROM N TO S SATURDAY.

NO AVIATION CONCERNS BEYOND SAT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...N WINDS BECOME NE-E TODAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS FROM N-S. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR GUSTY WINDS ON THE BAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ACROSS THE UPPER TIDAL
POTOMAC AS IT IS CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE HIGH.

SCA MAY LINGER OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER BAY INTO THE FIRS PART OF SUN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ANOMALIES HAVE INCREASED TO ABOUT A
HALF FOOT AS LIGHT N-NW FLOW OCCURS ON THE WATERS. THE FLOW WILL
TURN TO THE EAST TODAY BUT IT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP WATER
LEVELS BELOW FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE NEAR TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

&&

.CLIMATE...WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...SOME SITES MAY
APPROACH RECORD DAILY HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

BELOW IS A TABLE OF RECORD DAILY HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR
SEPTEMBER 4TH.

SITE.....RECORD MAX MIN FOR SEP 4................
DCA...76 (SET IN 2012 AND 1953)..................
BWI...75 (SET IN 2012/1953/1944/1937 AND 1932)...
IAD...71 (SET IN 2012)...........................

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...HAS/LFR
MARINE...HAS/LFR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HAS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 040759 CCA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
359 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE
WATERS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
WEAKEN TODAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND BUILDS SOUTHWARD.

CLOUDS ARE DISSIPATING FROM EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING MAKING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. PATCHY FOG HAS
DEVELOPED THIS MORNING DUE TO THE CALM WINDS AND RECENT MOISTURE
FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHES OF DENSE FOG ARE POSSIBLE
IN LOW LYING AREAS. FOG WILL DISSAPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL BUILD SOUTH TODAY PUSHING A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG
SOUTHWARD TODAY MOVING ACROSS THE MD/PA BORDER THIS MORNING AND
REACHING NOVA/DC/S MD BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME EASTERLY AS
THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD WHICH WILL ADVECT IN MARINE CONDITIONS
TODAY. DUE TO THE HIGH DEWPTS AND THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND SOUTH OF DC TODAY AS THIS AREA WILL BE UNSTABLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY BE COOLER THAN PREV DAYS THIS WEEK WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW TO MID 80S. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH AND LIKELY
STALL ACROSS CENTRAL VA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT. EASTERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE
LOW CLOUDS TO FORM LATE TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
STRATUS WILL BE SLOW TO DISSAPATE ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND AGAINST THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD SATURDAY
AND COOLER DRIER AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. CLEARING
WILL INCREASE FROM N- S AS WELL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SW WHERE
THE FRONT MAY STILL BE LOCATED. TEMPS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...SFC HIGH PRES OVER
THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP A DRY ENE FLOW AND COMFORTABLE TEMPS
THROUGH MON. SFC HIGH WEAKENS MORE RAPIDLY MON THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK WHILE MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE MID ATLC
RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND. IS NOT REALLY UNTIL WED WHEN SFC
HIGH WEAKENS ENOUGH TO ALLOW MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE AREA. WILL
KEEP FCST DRY THROUGH TUE NIGHT THEN BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND T-STORMS WED AFTERNOON WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THU FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A SLOW MOVING CDFNT CROSSING THE
AREA THU OR THU NIGHT BUT SHOW SIG DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING AND WHETHER FRONT CLEARS THE ENTIRE AREA OR NOT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING AS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS AT MRB-CHO-IAD. IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY AT MRB/CHO THIS MORNING. FOG DISSAPATES AFTER SUNRISE AND
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE S TODAY. N WINDS BECOME NE-E FROM N TO S TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SHRA/VCTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE
AT MRB-CHO-IAD. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS. ACTIVITY DIMINISHES TONIGHT. EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY
CAUSE SUB-MVFR CIGS TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. LOW CIGS WILL
LIKELY TAKE THE LONGEST TO IMPROVE AT CHO SATURDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR OCCURS FROM N TO S SATURDAY.

NO AVIATION CONCERNS BEYOND SAT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...N WINDS BECOME NE-E TODAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS FROM N-S. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR GUSTY WINDS ON THE BAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ACROSS THE UPPER TIDAL
POTOMAC AS IT IS CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE HIGH.

SCA MAY LINGER OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER BAY INTO THE FIRS PART OF SUN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ANOMALIES HAVE INCREASED TO ABOUT A
HALF FOOT AS LIGHT N-NW FLOW OCCURS ON THE WATERS. THE FLOW WILL
TURN TO THE EAST TODAY BUT IT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP WATER
LEVELS BELOW FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE NEAR TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

&&

.CLIMATE...WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...SOME SITES MAY
APPROACH RECORD DAILY HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

BELOW IS A TABLE OF RECORD DAILY HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR
SEPTEMBER 4TH.

SITE.....RECORD MAX MIN FOR SEP 4................
DCA...76 (SET IN 2012 AND 1953)..................
BWI...75 (SET IN 2012/1953/1944/1937 AND 1932)...
IAD...71 (SET IN 2012)...........................

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...HAS/LFR
MARINE...HAS/LFR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HAS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 040759
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
359 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
WEAKEN TODAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND BUILDS SOUTHWARD.

CLOUDS ARE DISSAPATING FROM EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING MAKING FOR PARTLY CLEAR SKIES. PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED
THIS MORNING DUE TO THE CALM WINDS AND RECENT MOISTURE FROM SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHES OF DENSE FOG ARE POSSIBLE IN LOW LYING
AREAS. FOG WILL DISSAPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL BUILD SOUTH TODAY PUSHING A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG
SOUTHWARD TODAY MOVING ACROSS THE MD/PA BORDER THIS MORNING AND
REACHING NOVA/DC/S MD BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME EASTERLY AS
THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD WHICH WILL ADVECT IN MARINE CONDITIONS
TODAY. DUE TO THE HIGH DEWPTS AND THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND SOUTH OF DC TODAY AS THIS AREA WILL BE UNSTABLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY BE COOLER THAN PREV DAYS THIS WEEK WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW TO MID 80S. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH AND LIKELY
STALL ACROSS CENTRAL VA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT. EASTERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE
LOW CLOUDS TO FORM LATE TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
STRATUS WILL BE SLOW TO DISSAPATE ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND AGAINST THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD SATURDAY
AND COOLER DRIER AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. CLEARING
WILL INCREASE FROM N- S AS WELL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SW WHERE
THE FRONT MAY STILL BE LOCATED. TEMPS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...SFC HIGH PRES OVER
THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP A DRY ENE FLOW AND COMFORTABLE TEMPS
THROUGH MON. SFC HIGH WEAKENS MORE RAPIDLY MON THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK WHILE MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE MID ATLC
RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND. IS NOT REALLY UNTIL WED WHEN SFC
HIGH WEAKENS ENOUGH TO ALLOW MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE AREA. WILL
KEEP FCST DRY THROUGH TUE NIGHT THEN BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND T-STORMS WED AFTERNOON WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THU FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A SLOW MOVING CDFNT CROSSING THE
AREA THU OR THU NIGHT BUT SHOW SIG DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING AND WHETHER FRONT CLEARS THE ENTIRE AREA OR NOT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING AS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS AT MRB-CHO-IAD. IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY AT MRB/CHO THIS MORNING. FOG DISSAPATES AFTER SUNRISE AND
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE S TODAY. N WINDS BECOME NE-E FROM N TO S TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SHRA/VCTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE
AT MRB-CHO-IAD. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS. ACTIVITY DIMINISHES TONIGHT. EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY
CAUSE SUB-MVFR CIGS TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. LOW CIGS WILL
LIKELY TAKE THE LONGEST TO IMPROVE AT CHO SATURDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR OCCURS FROM N TO S SATURDAY.

NO AVIATION CONCERNS BEYOND SAT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...N WINDS BECOME NE-E TODAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS FROM N-S. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR GUSTY WINDS ON THE BAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ACROSS THE UPPER TIDAL
POTOMAC AS IT IS CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE HIGH.

SCA MAY LINGER OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER BAY INTO THE FIRS PART OF SUN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ANOMALIES HAVE INCREASED TO ABOUT A
HALF FOOT AS LIGHT N-NW FLOW OCCURS ON THE WATERS. THE FLOW WILL
TURN TO THE EAST TODAY BUT IT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP WATER
LEVELS BELOW FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE NEAR TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

&&

.CLIMATE...WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...SOME SITES MAY
APPROACH RECORD DAILY HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

BELOW IS A TABLE OF RECORD DAILY HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR
SEPTEMBER 4TH.

SITE.....RECORD MAX MIN FOR SEP 4................
DCA...76 (SET IN 2012 AND 1953)..................
BWI...75 (SET IN 2012/1953/1944/1937 AND 1932)...
IAD...71 (SET IN 2012)...........................

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...HAS/LFR
MARINE...HAS/LFR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 040750
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
350 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES WILL
SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST LATE IN
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
KEPT PTCHY FOG IN GRIDS THRU 12Z PER CRNT SFC OBS. MODELS AGREE
IN BUILDING AN UPR LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NERN CONUS THRU THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE OVER ERN CANADA ALLOWS
STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND...PUSHING A
BACKDOOR FRONT ACROSS THE FA LATER TODAY. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...
ANTHR SUMMER-LIKE DAY WITH TMPS ABT +1 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL.
XPCT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
M80S ALONG THE COAST (WHERE WNDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN NE) TO THE
U80S-L90S WEST OF CHES BAY.

A WARM/MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS (MLCAPE VALUES 1000-
1500 J/KG) WILL REMAIN OVR THE FA IN ADVANCE OF THE BKDR COLD FRONT.
A MORE STABLE AIRMASS PROGGED ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE ONSHORE
FLOW. HIGH RES DATA SUGGESTS A DRY MORNING THEN A RTHR QUICK BUILDUP
IN CU/TCU/SCT CB`S AS THE CONVECTIVE TMPS ARE REACHED ARND NOON.
MODELS SHOW BEST SPRT FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE
I95 CORRIDOR (ALONG A WEAK WND CONVERGENCE BNDRY) WITH LITTLE IF
ANY SPRT EAST OF THE CHES BAY. THUS...KEPT POPS BLO 14% ALONG THE
COAST...20-30 POP FROM THE CHES BAY WEST TO THE I95 CORRIDOR WITH
40- 50 POP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. NO SVR WX XPCT...BUT CUD SEE GUSTY
WNDS AND LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS GIVEN PW`S AOA 1.5 INCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING
INTO A ELONGATED TROF OFF THE CAROLINA COAST IVOF THE GULF STREAM
WALL. THUS...KEPT THUNDER CHCS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THRU 00Z. AIRMASS
BECOMES MORE STABLE BY LATE EVE AND OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THE COMBO OF
LINGERING MSTR AT DIFFERENT LEVELS AND THE INCRG NE WND FLOW LEADS
TO THE NEED TO KEEP AT LEAST SLGHT CHC POPS GOING THRU THE NIGHT
UNDER PT TO MSTLY CLDY SKIES. BCMG BREEZY AT THE COAST AS WELL WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. HIGHEST POPS LATE TONIGHT SHIFTS TOWARD THE
COAST DUE TO THE MOIST FLOW OFF THE OCEAN. LOWS U60S-L70S.

WHAT ONCE LOOKED LIKE A DRY AND COOLER WEEKEND NOW APPEARS TO BE
RTHR UNSETTLED DUE TO LTL MOVEMENT IN SYNOPTIC FEATURES. ADD TO THAT
A DVLPNG AREA OF LOW PRS OFF THE SERN COAST RESULTS IN PERIODS OF
LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND A RTHR GUSTY NE WIND ALONG THE COAST (25-30
MPH). LTST DATA ALSO SUGGESTS WEAK MID LVL DISTURBANCES TRACKING
ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN THE NEED TO KEEP 20-40 POP ACROSS THE
SRN HALF OF THE FA SAT. DRIEST ACROSS THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH. COOLER GIVEN THE ABOVE SCENARIO WITH HIGHS U70S-L80S.

PCPN CHCS (20-40%) CONT TO SHIFT TOWARDS THE COAST SAT NIGHT AS THE
HIGH PRS EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE MTS KEEPING THW WRN HALF OF THE FA
DRY. LOWS SAT NIGHT M60S-L70S.

MSTR FROM THE CSTL TROF AND THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO ADDNTL SHWRS (20-40 POP) MOVG ONSHORE AND MAKING AS FAR WEST
AS THE I95 CORRIDOR SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARDS THE COAST ONCE
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY U70S-L80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF SUN NGT AND MON WITH SFC LO PRES
SPINNING OFF THE CAROLINA CST WITH HI PRES N AND W OF THE FA.
RESULTANT ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO TEMPS ONLY MAKING IT INTO THE
MID 80S MON UNDER A PRTLY-MSTLY SKY. WITH THE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLGT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER MUCH OF THE FA
SUN NGT/MON. KEPT THUNDER OUT DUE TO A LACK OF INSTABILITY. THE
SFC LO WEAKENS AND STARTS SLIDING E TUE ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDS
AND TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID/UPR 80S UNDER A PRTLY CLOUDY
SKY. DRY WX CONTINUES MIDWEEK WITH TEMPS FURTHER INCREASING AS SLY
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRNT...WITH HI TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO NR 90 WED AND THUR. THE FRNT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SOMETIME LATE THU OR FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR FOG/HAZE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A CHC
FOR BRIEF IFR VSBYS AT KPHF AND KECG BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. OTW...VFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TODAY OUTSIDE OF ISOLD TO WDLY SCT AFTN
CONVECTION...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95.

OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN AREAS OF
SHOWERS AND IN EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS SATURDAY THRU MONDAY
WITH ONSHORE FLOW. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
THE COAST ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING IS
PRODUCING LIGHT N-NW WINDS. NE FLOW DEVELOPS ALL WATERS BY LATE
MORNING/AFTN AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH TOWARDS THE
REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE OVERSPREADS THE NE STATES. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE THRU THE DAY OVER ALL WATERS...REACHING 10-15 KT
EVERYWHERE BY EARLY EVENING AND 15-20 KT OVER THE NORTHERN OCEAN
ZONES. WINDS INCREASE A BIT MORE FRIDAY NIGHT SO THAT SCA`S WILL
BE NECESSARY FOR THE OCEAN/BAY/LOWER JAMES RIVER...WITH WAVES ON
THE BAY BUILDING TO 3-4 FT AND SEAS REACHING 4-6 FT (HIGHEST
NORTH). THE START TIME OF THE SCA FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS
(SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES) WAS PUSHED BACK ABOUT 12 HRS (TIL 7AM SAT)
AS IT WILL TAKE THE LONGEST FOR SCA CONDITIONS TO BE REALIZED
THERE. ALL SCA`S WILL THEN RUN THROUGH THE DAY SAT. MAY ALSO NEED
TO INCLUDE THE CURRITUCK SOUND DURING THE DAY SAT BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH ATTM DUE TO SHORT DURATION OF HIGHEST WINDS.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE SAT NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES
SO THAT THE SCA`S CAN END. STILL EXPECTING WAVES TO REMAIN AROUND
4FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SEAS
LINGERING AROUND 5 FT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY TO START
NEXT WEEK.

IN ADDITION...THE ONSHORE FLOW AND HIGH NEARSHORE WAVES WILL ENHANCE
THE RIP CURRENT THREAT FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ632.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM



000
FXUS61 KPHI 040737
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
337 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS
SCHEDULED TO APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY, THEN MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION
DURING THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WAS DROPPING THROUGH OUR REGION
REMAINED DIFFUSE AND RATHER DIFFICULT TO FIND AROUND 330 AM.
REGARDLESS, THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST IN MOST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY 800 AM.

AN AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS THAT WAS DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF NEW
ENGLAND AND THE ADJACENT WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
SOUTHWESTWARD AND OVER OUR REGION TODAY. AS A RESULT, WE ARE
ANTICIPATING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.

AN IMPULSE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD OVER
OUR REGION TODAY. IT MAY TOUCH OFF A FEW RAIN SHOWERS. THE AXIS OF
BEST INSTABILITY IN OUR VICINITY IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL
VIRGINIA UP INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL
MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA, ON THE UPPER DELMARVA AND IN PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEW
JERSEY. LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF OUR
FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE RELATIVELY STABLE AND WILL LIKELY NOT
EXPERIENCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

THE CLOUD COVER AND THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 80S FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE DROP FROM QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR
TONIGHT, DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO OUR REGION. SOME CLEARING
IS EXPECTED FROM THE NORTHEAST AND ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL
BE PUSHED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

THE WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES
SHOULD DROP INTO THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS. READINGS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE POCONO REGION AND IN FAR NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST AND A
TROUGH IN THE WEST. AS THE TROUGH EJECTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THE PORTION OF THE
RIDGE IN THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN. THE
TROUGH OR ANOTHER ONE BEHIND IT GRADUALLY SLIDES EAST-NORTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY, HOWEVER THE RIDGE WHILE GETTING PUSHED
SOUTHEASTWARD IT TENDS TO SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
INCOMING SYSTEM. THIS PATTERN TENDS TO FAVOR WARMTH AND DRYNESS
ALTHOUGH A BREAK OCCURS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE REGION NEEDS RAIN, HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE
THE CHCS ARE RATHER LOW GIVEN NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH.
WE USED A MODEL/CONTINUITY BLEND FOR SATURDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH A
00Z WPC GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY BLEND THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE
THEN MADE AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING
OFFICES.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CRESTS ACROSS THE
AREA, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EASE EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE ONSHORE FLOW TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY. THE
ONSHORE FLOW HOWEVER PERSISTS SATURDAY WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
RESULT IN MORE CLOUDINESS FOR A TIME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. SOME
GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME LIGHT QPF IN PORTIONS OF MARYLAND AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN DELAWARE, HOWEVER THIS IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE GIVEN
THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING SOUTHWARD. AS A RESULT, WE WENT WITH A DRY
FORECAST BUT DID CARRY MORE CLOUD COVER. A MUCH COOLER DAY IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW. WE START TO LOSE THE
STRENGTH OF THE ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY, AND THEREFORE THE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO START REBOUNDING IN THE AFTERNOON
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BE MORE ACROSS THE INTERIOR COMPARED
TO THE COASTAL LOCALES.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO CLOSED LOW
TRACKING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA IS
FORECAST TO ALLOW FOR A FLATTER RIDGE IN THE EAST. THIS WILL ALSO
FORCE HIGH PRESSURE MORE OFFSHORE, AND A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
GRADUALLY SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY IS FORECAST TO TRACK INTO CANADA TUESDAY, THEREFORE THE CHCS
FOR CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE TO OUR WEST. AS THE FLOW IS MORE
SOUTHERLY, A RATHER WARM AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE WITH SOME
INCREASE IN THE DEW POINTS EACH DAY. THERE IS A WEAK SYSTEM FORECAST
TO BE OFF OF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS, HOWEVER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THAT SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH GIVEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CLOSER TO OUR AREA.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE TROUGH TO
CLOSED LOW IS FOLLOWED BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST TO
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS MAY INDUCE A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE COLD
FRONT, SLOWING IT DOWN SOME MORE. THE COMBINATION OF THIS ALONG WITH
THE INITIAL ENERGY TRACKING WELL NORTH AND THE RIDGE FARTHER SOUTH
SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS TIMING WILL GOVERNOR
THE PROSPECTS FOR THE CONVECTIVE CHCS, HOWEVER THE WPC GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE SURFACE FRONT MOVING IN DURING THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD
EXTEND THE PERIOD OF RATHER WARM CONDITIONS, HOWEVER THE ARRIVAL OF
THE FRONT ON THURSDAY MAY SIGNAL A CHANGE. OVERALL, LOW POPS ARE
CARRIED MOSTLY THURSDAY AS THE FRONT ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SCATTERED MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN OUR REGION
UNTIL ABOUT 1300Z, THEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
BALANCE OF THE TAF PERIOD.

A DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHEAST SHOULD
OVERSPREAD OUR REGION TODAY. CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE
4000 FEET. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT 1600Z UNTIL
2200Z AND THEY HAVE BEEN MENTIONED FOR ALL OF OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT
KTTN AND KACY. CONDITIONS AROUND THOSE TWO TAF SITES AND POINTS TO
THE NORTHEAST SHOULD REMAIN MORE STABLE THAN AT LOCATIONS TO THE
SOUTHWEST. ALSO, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
BUT THE RISK IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

THE STRATOCUMULUS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR
TAF SITES TONIGHT.

THE WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO FAVOR THE NORTHEAST AND EAST THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AT SPEEDS FROM ABOUT 6 TO 12 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL, HOWEVER SOME CLOUDINESS IS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY MAINLY SOUTH OF KILG TO KACY. LOCALIZED FOG
POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. EAST-
NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS SATURDAY /STRONGEST CLOSER TO THE
COAST/, DIMINISHING SOME AND BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. SOUTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC TODAY AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT.

AN INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED AND WIND GUSTS SHOULD
INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, WE
HAVE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ALL BUT THE UPPER PART OF
DELAWARE BAY WHICH SHOULD BE SHELTERED FROM THE STRONGEST OF THE
GUSTS.

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEGINS AT NOON FOR OUR NORTHERN WATERS AND
AT 400 PM FOR OUR SOUTHERN WATERS AND FOR LOWER DELAWARE BAY.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BUILD TO 4 TO 6
FEET FOR LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD BUILD TO 2 TO
4 FEET ON LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND 1 TO 2 FEET ON THE UPPER BAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS CLOSER. HOWEVER, STRONG
ENOUGH FLOW WITHIN A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS FOR AWHILE MAINLY ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS. IT COULD BE CLOSE MAINLY IN THE MORNING FOR LOWER DELAWARE
BAY, HOWEVER AS OF NOW DID NOT TAKE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEYOND
12Z GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE. THE SEAS OF 4-6 FEET ARE EXPECTED ON THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AS A RESULT OF THE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW,
HOWEVER THESE SHOULD BE SUBSIDING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THEY SHIFT FROM EAST-NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH. THE SEAS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW
5 FEET.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE THREAT FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL BE ENHANCED FRIDAY AND
THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

FOR THE FIRST LOOK FOR TODAY, WE WILL CARRY A MODERATE RISK FOR
MONMOUTH AND OCEAN COUNTIES AND LOW RISK ELSEWHERE. THIS WILL BE
REACCESSED EARLY THIS MORNING AS ITS A TIMING ISSUE AS TO HOW
QUICKLY WILL THE NORTHEAST WINDS RAMP AS WE MOVE FARTHER SOUTH
ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND THEN DELAWARE COASTS. COULD BE A HYBRID
SCENARIO OF LOW BECOMING MODERATE AS THE AFTERNOON, EVENING
CONTINUES.

THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SURGE BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OF 10
TO 15 KT WILL ARRIVE THIS MORNING AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT THIS
AFTERNOON THRU SATURDAY. WAVES WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE TO THIS
WIND SURGE, FORECASTED TO INCREASE TO 4-6 FT BY TONIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THE WINDS AND WAVES ALONG THE COAST
SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AS OF NOW,
IN-HOUSE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A SOLID MODERATE /POSSIBLY
NEARING HIGH/ FOR SATURDAY. THE RISK SHOULD LOWER SOME SUNDAY BUT
IT MAY STILL BE MODERATE.

IT IS PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT FOR SAFETY AWARENESS TO SHARE THIS
INFORMATION TO BEACHGOERS AND LIFEGUARDS WITH THE BEACH CROWD
ANTICIPATED TO BE LARGER THAN NORMAL GIVEN IT IS LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
RIP CURRENTS...GIGI/GORSE




000
FXUS61 KPHI 040737
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
337 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS
SCHEDULED TO APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY, THEN MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION
DURING THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WAS DROPPING THROUGH OUR REGION
REMAINED DIFFUSE AND RATHER DIFFICULT TO FIND AROUND 330 AM.
REGARDLESS, THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST IN MOST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY 800 AM.

AN AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS THAT WAS DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF NEW
ENGLAND AND THE ADJACENT WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
SOUTHWESTWARD AND OVER OUR REGION TODAY. AS A RESULT, WE ARE
ANTICIPATING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.

AN IMPULSE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD OVER
OUR REGION TODAY. IT MAY TOUCH OFF A FEW RAIN SHOWERS. THE AXIS OF
BEST INSTABILITY IN OUR VICINITY IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL
VIRGINIA UP INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL
MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA, ON THE UPPER DELMARVA AND IN PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEW
JERSEY. LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF OUR
FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE RELATIVELY STABLE AND WILL LIKELY NOT
EXPERIENCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

THE CLOUD COVER AND THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 80S FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE DROP FROM QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR
TONIGHT, DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO OUR REGION. SOME CLEARING
IS EXPECTED FROM THE NORTHEAST AND ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL
BE PUSHED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

THE WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES
SHOULD DROP INTO THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS. READINGS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE POCONO REGION AND IN FAR NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST AND A
TROUGH IN THE WEST. AS THE TROUGH EJECTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THE PORTION OF THE
RIDGE IN THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN. THE
TROUGH OR ANOTHER ONE BEHIND IT GRADUALLY SLIDES EAST-NORTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY, HOWEVER THE RIDGE WHILE GETTING PUSHED
SOUTHEASTWARD IT TENDS TO SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
INCOMING SYSTEM. THIS PATTERN TENDS TO FAVOR WARMTH AND DRYNESS
ALTHOUGH A BREAK OCCURS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE REGION NEEDS RAIN, HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE
THE CHCS ARE RATHER LOW GIVEN NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH.
WE USED A MODEL/CONTINUITY BLEND FOR SATURDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH A
00Z WPC GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY BLEND THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE
THEN MADE AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING
OFFICES.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CRESTS ACROSS THE
AREA, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EASE EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE ONSHORE FLOW TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY. THE
ONSHORE FLOW HOWEVER PERSISTS SATURDAY WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
RESULT IN MORE CLOUDINESS FOR A TIME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. SOME
GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME LIGHT QPF IN PORTIONS OF MARYLAND AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN DELAWARE, HOWEVER THIS IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE GIVEN
THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING SOUTHWARD. AS A RESULT, WE WENT WITH A DRY
FORECAST BUT DID CARRY MORE CLOUD COVER. A MUCH COOLER DAY IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW. WE START TO LOSE THE
STRENGTH OF THE ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY, AND THEREFORE THE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO START REBOUNDING IN THE AFTERNOON
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BE MORE ACROSS THE INTERIOR COMPARED
TO THE COASTAL LOCALES.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO CLOSED LOW
TRACKING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA IS
FORECAST TO ALLOW FOR A FLATTER RIDGE IN THE EAST. THIS WILL ALSO
FORCE HIGH PRESSURE MORE OFFSHORE, AND A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
GRADUALLY SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY IS FORECAST TO TRACK INTO CANADA TUESDAY, THEREFORE THE CHCS
FOR CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE TO OUR WEST. AS THE FLOW IS MORE
SOUTHERLY, A RATHER WARM AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE WITH SOME
INCREASE IN THE DEW POINTS EACH DAY. THERE IS A WEAK SYSTEM FORECAST
TO BE OFF OF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS, HOWEVER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THAT SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH GIVEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CLOSER TO OUR AREA.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE TROUGH TO
CLOSED LOW IS FOLLOWED BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST TO
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS MAY INDUCE A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE COLD
FRONT, SLOWING IT DOWN SOME MORE. THE COMBINATION OF THIS ALONG WITH
THE INITIAL ENERGY TRACKING WELL NORTH AND THE RIDGE FARTHER SOUTH
SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS TIMING WILL GOVERNOR
THE PROSPECTS FOR THE CONVECTIVE CHCS, HOWEVER THE WPC GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE SURFACE FRONT MOVING IN DURING THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD
EXTEND THE PERIOD OF RATHER WARM CONDITIONS, HOWEVER THE ARRIVAL OF
THE FRONT ON THURSDAY MAY SIGNAL A CHANGE. OVERALL, LOW POPS ARE
CARRIED MOSTLY THURSDAY AS THE FRONT ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SCATTERED MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN OUR REGION
UNTIL ABOUT 1300Z, THEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
BALANCE OF THE TAF PERIOD.

A DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHEAST SHOULD
OVERSPREAD OUR REGION TODAY. CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE
4000 FEET. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT 1600Z UNTIL
2200Z AND THEY HAVE BEEN MENTIONED FOR ALL OF OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT
KTTN AND KACY. CONDITIONS AROUND THOSE TWO TAF SITES AND POINTS TO
THE NORTHEAST SHOULD REMAIN MORE STABLE THAN AT LOCATIONS TO THE
SOUTHWEST. ALSO, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
BUT THE RISK IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

THE STRATOCUMULUS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR
TAF SITES TONIGHT.

THE WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO FAVOR THE NORTHEAST AND EAST THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AT SPEEDS FROM ABOUT 6 TO 12 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL, HOWEVER SOME CLOUDINESS IS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY MAINLY SOUTH OF KILG TO KACY. LOCALIZED FOG
POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. EAST-
NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS SATURDAY /STRONGEST CLOSER TO THE
COAST/, DIMINISHING SOME AND BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. SOUTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC TODAY AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT.

AN INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED AND WIND GUSTS SHOULD
INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, WE
HAVE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ALL BUT THE UPPER PART OF
DELAWARE BAY WHICH SHOULD BE SHELTERED FROM THE STRONGEST OF THE
GUSTS.

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEGINS AT NOON FOR OUR NORTHERN WATERS AND
AT 400 PM FOR OUR SOUTHERN WATERS AND FOR LOWER DELAWARE BAY.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BUILD TO 4 TO 6
FEET FOR LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD BUILD TO 2 TO
4 FEET ON LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND 1 TO 2 FEET ON THE UPPER BAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS CLOSER. HOWEVER, STRONG
ENOUGH FLOW WITHIN A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS FOR AWHILE MAINLY ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS. IT COULD BE CLOSE MAINLY IN THE MORNING FOR LOWER DELAWARE
BAY, HOWEVER AS OF NOW DID NOT TAKE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEYOND
12Z GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE. THE SEAS OF 4-6 FEET ARE EXPECTED ON THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AS A RESULT OF THE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW,
HOWEVER THESE SHOULD BE SUBSIDING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THEY SHIFT FROM EAST-NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH. THE SEAS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW
5 FEET.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE THREAT FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL BE ENHANCED FRIDAY AND
THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

FOR THE FIRST LOOK FOR TODAY, WE WILL CARRY A MODERATE RISK FOR
MONMOUTH AND OCEAN COUNTIES AND LOW RISK ELSEWHERE. THIS WILL BE
REACCESSED EARLY THIS MORNING AS ITS A TIMING ISSUE AS TO HOW
QUICKLY WILL THE NORTHEAST WINDS RAMP AS WE MOVE FARTHER SOUTH
ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND THEN DELAWARE COASTS. COULD BE A HYBRID
SCENARIO OF LOW BECOMING MODERATE AS THE AFTERNOON, EVENING
CONTINUES.

THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SURGE BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OF 10
TO 15 KT WILL ARRIVE THIS MORNING AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT THIS
AFTERNOON THRU SATURDAY. WAVES WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE TO THIS
WIND SURGE, FORECASTED TO INCREASE TO 4-6 FT BY TONIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THE WINDS AND WAVES ALONG THE COAST
SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AS OF NOW,
IN-HOUSE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A SOLID MODERATE /POSSIBLY
NEARING HIGH/ FOR SATURDAY. THE RISK SHOULD LOWER SOME SUNDAY BUT
IT MAY STILL BE MODERATE.

IT IS PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT FOR SAFETY AWARENESS TO SHARE THIS
INFORMATION TO BEACHGOERS AND LIFEGUARDS WITH THE BEACH CROWD
ANTICIPATED TO BE LARGER THAN NORMAL GIVEN IT IS LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
RIP CURRENTS...GIGI/GORSE



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 040602
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
202 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOCUSED ON WEAKENING COMPLEX...ASSOCIATED WITH A
RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE...THAT WILL DRIFT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH OHIO. LATEST MODEL DATA INDICATES A WEAKENING OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AS IT ENCOUNTERS SUBSIDENCE MOVING NORTHEAST ON BACK
SIDE OF TROUGH AND THE WAVE ITSELF SHEARS NORTHWARD BACK TOWARD
THE MAIN UPPER LOW. HIRES MODEL DATA SUPPORTS THE IDEA THAT
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS THIS DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS WELL AND SAT PICS...IN
CORRELATION...ARE SHOWING WARMING CLOUD TOPS. HAVE INCREASED POPS
ACROSS OHIO OVERNIGHT AND INCLUDED THE MENTION OF
THUNDER...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE ISOLATED.

SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE DIURNALLY SUPPORTED CONVECTION IS AGAIN
EXPECTED LATER TODAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE SUPPORT. NO CHANGE TO
THE WARM AND HUMID.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH IS PROJECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD
ACROSS PA UNDER A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE
AND WARMTH ALOFT SHOULD INHIBIT DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. RELIEF FROM THE
QUITE WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH COLD FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...AS WELL AS AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FAIRLY COMMON OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT IN THE
IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EMANATING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS EASTERN OHIO FROM AROUND KZZV TO JUST NORTH OF KHLG.
CONDITIONS WILL BRIEFLY BE VFR THERE DUE TO ENHANCED SURFACE
MIXING. HOWEVER...RAINFALL YESTERDAY HAS ALLOWED FOR AMPLE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO RESIDE ACROSS ALL SITES FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS TO REDEVELOP OR CONTINUE...WITH LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS
WHERE THE MOST RAIN FALL TODAY...SUCH AS IN THE VALLEY AROUND
KHLG. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY NOON TODAY...HOWEVER A FEW TS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON...THOUGH COVERAGE AND TIMING IS TOO
UNCERTAIN FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN PROB30 WORDING AT THE MOMENT.
FRIES

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED IN EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 040602
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
202 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOCUSED ON WEAKENING COMPLEX...ASSOCIATED WITH A
RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE...THAT WILL DRIFT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH OHIO. LATEST MODEL DATA INDICATES A WEAKENING OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AS IT ENCOUNTERS SUBSIDENCE MOVING NORTHEAST ON BACK
SIDE OF TROUGH AND THE WAVE ITSELF SHEARS NORTHWARD BACK TOWARD
THE MAIN UPPER LOW. HIRES MODEL DATA SUPPORTS THE IDEA THAT
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS THIS DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS WELL AND SAT PICS...IN
CORRELATION...ARE SHOWING WARMING CLOUD TOPS. HAVE INCREASED POPS
ACROSS OHIO OVERNIGHT AND INCLUDED THE MENTION OF
THUNDER...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE ISOLATED.

SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE DIURNALLY SUPPORTED CONVECTION IS AGAIN
EXPECTED LATER TODAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE SUPPORT. NO CHANGE TO
THE WARM AND HUMID.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH IS PROJECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD
ACROSS PA UNDER A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE
AND WARMTH ALOFT SHOULD INHIBIT DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. RELIEF FROM THE
QUITE WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH COLD FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...AS WELL AS AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FAIRLY COMMON OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT IN THE
IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EMANATING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS EASTERN OHIO FROM AROUND KZZV TO JUST NORTH OF KHLG.
CONDITIONS WILL BRIEFLY BE VFR THERE DUE TO ENHANCED SURFACE
MIXING. HOWEVER...RAINFALL YESTERDAY HAS ALLOWED FOR AMPLE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO RESIDE ACROSS ALL SITES FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS TO REDEVELOP OR CONTINUE...WITH LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS
WHERE THE MOST RAIN FALL TODAY...SUCH AS IN THE VALLEY AROUND
KHLG. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY NOON TODAY...HOWEVER A FEW TS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON...THOUGH COVERAGE AND TIMING IS TOO
UNCERTAIN FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN PROB30 WORDING AT THE MOMENT.
FRIES

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED IN EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 040602
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
202 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOCUSED ON WEAKENING COMPLEX...ASSOCIATED WITH A
RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE...THAT WILL DRIFT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH OHIO. LATEST MODEL DATA INDICATES A WEAKENING OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AS IT ENCOUNTERS SUBSIDENCE MOVING NORTHEAST ON BACK
SIDE OF TROUGH AND THE WAVE ITSELF SHEARS NORTHWARD BACK TOWARD
THE MAIN UPPER LOW. HIRES MODEL DATA SUPPORTS THE IDEA THAT
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS THIS DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS WELL AND SAT PICS...IN
CORRELATION...ARE SHOWING WARMING CLOUD TOPS. HAVE INCREASED POPS
ACROSS OHIO OVERNIGHT AND INCLUDED THE MENTION OF
THUNDER...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE ISOLATED.

SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE DIURNALLY SUPPORTED CONVECTION IS AGAIN
EXPECTED LATER TODAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE SUPPORT. NO CHANGE TO
THE WARM AND HUMID.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH IS PROJECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD
ACROSS PA UNDER A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE
AND WARMTH ALOFT SHOULD INHIBIT DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. RELIEF FROM THE
QUITE WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH COLD FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...AS WELL AS AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FAIRLY COMMON OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT IN THE
IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EMANATING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS EASTERN OHIO FROM AROUND KZZV TO JUST NORTH OF KHLG.
CONDITIONS WILL BRIEFLY BE VFR THERE DUE TO ENHANCED SURFACE
MIXING. HOWEVER...RAINFALL YESTERDAY HAS ALLOWED FOR AMPLE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO RESIDE ACROSS ALL SITES FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS TO REDEVELOP OR CONTINUE...WITH LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS
WHERE THE MOST RAIN FALL TODAY...SUCH AS IN THE VALLEY AROUND
KHLG. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY NOON TODAY...HOWEVER A FEW TS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON...THOUGH COVERAGE AND TIMING IS TOO
UNCERTAIN FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN PROB30 WORDING AT THE MOMENT.
FRIES

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED IN EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 040602
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
202 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOCUSED ON WEAKENING COMPLEX...ASSOCIATED WITH A
RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE...THAT WILL DRIFT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH OHIO. LATEST MODEL DATA INDICATES A WEAKENING OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AS IT ENCOUNTERS SUBSIDENCE MOVING NORTHEAST ON BACK
SIDE OF TROUGH AND THE WAVE ITSELF SHEARS NORTHWARD BACK TOWARD
THE MAIN UPPER LOW. HIRES MODEL DATA SUPPORTS THE IDEA THAT
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS THIS DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS WELL AND SAT PICS...IN
CORRELATION...ARE SHOWING WARMING CLOUD TOPS. HAVE INCREASED POPS
ACROSS OHIO OVERNIGHT AND INCLUDED THE MENTION OF
THUNDER...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE ISOLATED.

SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE DIURNALLY SUPPORTED CONVECTION IS AGAIN
EXPECTED LATER TODAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE SUPPORT. NO CHANGE TO
THE WARM AND HUMID.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH IS PROJECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD
ACROSS PA UNDER A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE
AND WARMTH ALOFT SHOULD INHIBIT DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. RELIEF FROM THE
QUITE WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH COLD FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...AS WELL AS AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FAIRLY COMMON OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT IN THE
IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EMANATING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS EASTERN OHIO FROM AROUND KZZV TO JUST NORTH OF KHLG.
CONDITIONS WILL BRIEFLY BE VFR THERE DUE TO ENHANCED SURFACE
MIXING. HOWEVER...RAINFALL YESTERDAY HAS ALLOWED FOR AMPLE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO RESIDE ACROSS ALL SITES FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS TO REDEVELOP OR CONTINUE...WITH LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS
WHERE THE MOST RAIN FALL TODAY...SUCH AS IN THE VALLEY AROUND
KHLG. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY NOON TODAY...HOWEVER A FEW TS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON...THOUGH COVERAGE AND TIMING IS TOO
UNCERTAIN FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN PROB30 WORDING AT THE MOMENT.
FRIES

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED IN EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 040543 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
143 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOCUSED ON WEAKENING COMPLEX...ASSOCIATED WITH A
RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE...THAT WILL DRIFT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH OHIO. LATEST MODEL DATA INDICATES A WEAKENING OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AS IT ENCOUNTERS SUBSIDENCE MOVING NORTHEAST ON BACK
SIDE OF TROUGH AND THE WAVE ITSELF SHEARS NORTHWARD BACK TOWARD
THE MAIN UPPER LOW. HIRES MODEL DATA SUPPORTS THE IDEA THAT
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS THIS DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS WELL AND SAT PICS...IN
CORRELATION...ARE SHOWING WARMING CLOUD TOPS. HAVE INCREASED POPS
ACROSS OHIO OVERNIGHT AND INCLUDED THE MENTION OF
THUNDER...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE ISOLATED.

SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE DIURNALLY SUPPORTED CONVECTION IS AGAIN
EXPECTED LATER TODAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE SUPPORT. NO CHANGE TO
THE WARM AND HUMID.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH IS PROJECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD
ACROSS PA UNDER A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE
AND WARMTH ALOFT SHOULD INHIBIT DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. RELIEF FROM THE
QUITE WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH COLD FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...AS WELL AS AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MARRED BY SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS
EVENING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR AS FOG DEVELOPS BY DAWN.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 040543 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
143 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOCUSED ON WEAKENING COMPLEX...ASSOCIATED WITH A
RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE...THAT WILL DRIFT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH OHIO. LATEST MODEL DATA INDICATES A WEAKENING OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AS IT ENCOUNTERS SUBSIDENCE MOVING NORTHEAST ON BACK
SIDE OF TROUGH AND THE WAVE ITSELF SHEARS NORTHWARD BACK TOWARD
THE MAIN UPPER LOW. HIRES MODEL DATA SUPPORTS THE IDEA THAT
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS THIS DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS WELL AND SAT PICS...IN
CORRELATION...ARE SHOWING WARMING CLOUD TOPS. HAVE INCREASED POPS
ACROSS OHIO OVERNIGHT AND INCLUDED THE MENTION OF
THUNDER...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE ISOLATED.

SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE DIURNALLY SUPPORTED CONVECTION IS AGAIN
EXPECTED LATER TODAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE SUPPORT. NO CHANGE TO
THE WARM AND HUMID.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH IS PROJECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD
ACROSS PA UNDER A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE
AND WARMTH ALOFT SHOULD INHIBIT DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. RELIEF FROM THE
QUITE WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH COLD FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...AS WELL AS AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MARRED BY SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS
EVENING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR AS FOG DEVELOPS BY DAWN.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 040543 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
143 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOCUSED ON WEAKENING COMPLEX...ASSOCIATED WITH A
RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE...THAT WILL DRIFT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH OHIO. LATEST MODEL DATA INDICATES A WEAKENING OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AS IT ENCOUNTERS SUBSIDENCE MOVING NORTHEAST ON BACK
SIDE OF TROUGH AND THE WAVE ITSELF SHEARS NORTHWARD BACK TOWARD
THE MAIN UPPER LOW. HIRES MODEL DATA SUPPORTS THE IDEA THAT
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS THIS DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS WELL AND SAT PICS...IN
CORRELATION...ARE SHOWING WARMING CLOUD TOPS. HAVE INCREASED POPS
ACROSS OHIO OVERNIGHT AND INCLUDED THE MENTION OF
THUNDER...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE ISOLATED.

SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE DIURNALLY SUPPORTED CONVECTION IS AGAIN
EXPECTED LATER TODAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE SUPPORT. NO CHANGE TO
THE WARM AND HUMID.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH IS PROJECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD
ACROSS PA UNDER A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE
AND WARMTH ALOFT SHOULD INHIBIT DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. RELIEF FROM THE
QUITE WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH COLD FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...AS WELL AS AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MARRED BY SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS
EVENING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR AS FOG DEVELOPS BY DAWN.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 040543 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
143 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOCUSED ON WEAKENING COMPLEX...ASSOCIATED WITH A
RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE...THAT WILL DRIFT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH OHIO. LATEST MODEL DATA INDICATES A WEAKENING OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AS IT ENCOUNTERS SUBSIDENCE MOVING NORTHEAST ON BACK
SIDE OF TROUGH AND THE WAVE ITSELF SHEARS NORTHWARD BACK TOWARD
THE MAIN UPPER LOW. HIRES MODEL DATA SUPPORTS THE IDEA THAT
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS THIS DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS WELL AND SAT PICS...IN
CORRELATION...ARE SHOWING WARMING CLOUD TOPS. HAVE INCREASED POPS
ACROSS OHIO OVERNIGHT AND INCLUDED THE MENTION OF
THUNDER...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE ISOLATED.

SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE DIURNALLY SUPPORTED CONVECTION IS AGAIN
EXPECTED LATER TODAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE SUPPORT. NO CHANGE TO
THE WARM AND HUMID.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH IS PROJECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD
ACROSS PA UNDER A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE
AND WARMTH ALOFT SHOULD INHIBIT DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. RELIEF FROM THE
QUITE WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH COLD FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...AS WELL AS AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MARRED BY SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS
EVENING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR AS FOG DEVELOPS BY DAWN.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 040539
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
139 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE LOCAL AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST STATES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WEAK SFC TROUGH PERSISTS ACRS THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH LIGHT
NW FLOW ALOFT. AIRMASS REMAINS SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AS OF 02Z...EVIDENCED
BY SOME MODEST ML CAPES PER SPC MESOANALYSIS AND ISOLATED/WIDELY
SCATTERED TSTMS CONTINUING OVER NORTHERN VA AND PORTIONS OF THE
PIEDMONT. HAVE EXTENDED 20-30% POPS OVER THE FAR NORTH AND IN THE
PIEDMONT THROUGH 1 AM. OTHERWISE...WARM/HUMID UNDER VARIABLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S IN RURAL AREAS OF INTERIOR VA/MD TO THE
LWR 70S ELSEWHERE. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING IN SOME AREAS...THOUGH
WITH DEW PTS THIS HIGH RARELY SEE DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND
EXPECT MOST AREAS TO MAINTAIN VSBY OF 2SM OR GREATER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NE CONUS DURING THE SHORT
TERM. A WEAKNESS UNDER THE RIDGE LOCATES OVER THE -SE
STATES...RESULTING IN WEAK FLOW ALOFT. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE OVER
ERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WILL ALLOW STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD SWD INTO NEW ENGLAND...PUSHING A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE RGN
FRI MRNG-AFTN. SFC WNDS TURN TO THE NE FRI...RESULTING IN THE
BEGINNINGS OF A COOL DOWN. A WARM/MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS (SREF MLCAPE VALUES 1000-1500 J/KG) WILL REMAIN OVVR THE
FA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. MORE STABLE ALONG THE COAST DUE TO
ONSHORE FLOW. HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS E AND
CNTRL...BUT HAVE CONTD W/ SOLID CHANCE (40-50%) OVR THE PIEDMONT
AS WEAK S/W DROPS OVR THE RGN. VRB CLDS- PARTLY CLOUDY CONDS W/ HI
TEMPS FM THE M-U80S INVOF ERN SHORE/ALG THE CST TO THE U80S-ARND
90F INLAND.

THE WX FM FRI NGT THROUGH SUN LOOKING MORE UNSETTLED THAN BEFORE.
PDS OF LO LVL CLDS XPCD INTO SUN W/ CONTD ENE WNDS. GUSTS UP TO
25 MPH NR THE CST LT FRI NGT. MDLS TDA ARE LESS EMPHATIC ABT DRIER
AIR MASS PUSHING SSW INTO/ACRS THE FA THIS WKND. COMBO HI PRES TO
THE NNE AND LO PRES OVR SE CONUS TO KEEP MOIST ONSHORE WNDS AND
LIKELIHOOD OF WK IMPULSES TRACKING ACRS THE FA FM THE E. WILL HAVE
20-40% POPS SAT-SUN...HIGHEST IN SE VA/NE NC. CONTD BREEZY (GUSTS
TO 25-30 MPH NR THE CST IN ERN VA/NE NC) ON SAT...LESS WND XPCD
SUN. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE M-U70S NR THE CST TO ARND 80F INLAND. LO
TEMPS SAT NGT FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F. HI TEMPS SUN FM THE U70S TO
L80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF SUN NGT AND MON WITH SFC LO PRES
SPINNING OFF THE CAROLINA CST WITH HI PRES N AND W OF THE FA.
RESULTANT ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO TEMPS ONLY MAKING IT INTO THE
MID 80S MON UNDER A PRTLY-MSTLY SKY. WITH THE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLGT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER MUCH OF THE FA
SUN NGT/MON. KEPT THUNDER OUT DUE TO A LACK OF INSTABILITY. THE
SFC LO WEAKENS AND STARTS SLIDING E TUE ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDS
AND TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID/UPR 80S UNDER A PRTLY CLOUDY
SKY. DRY WX CONTINUES MIDWEEK WITH TEMPS FURTHER INCREASING AS SLY
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRNT...WITH HI TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO NR 90 WED AND THUR. THE FRNT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SOMETIME LATE THU OR FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR FOG/HAZE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A CHC
FOR BRIEF IFR VSBYS AT KPHF AND KECG BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. OTW...VFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TODAY OUTSIDE OF ISOLD TO WDLY SCT AFTN
CONVECTION...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95.

OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN AREAS OF
SHOWERS AND IN EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS SATURDAY THRU MONDAY
WITH ONSHORE FLOW. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
THE COAST ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THE
OCEAN/BAY/LWR JAMES. FOR TNGT...WEAK TROF OF LO PRES OVER THE WTRS
WILL LEAD TO VRB WINDS UNDER 10 KT. NE FLOW THEN DEVELOPS FRI AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRNT DROPS TWRDS THE REGION AND HI PRES OVERSPREADS
THE NE STATES. WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THRU THE DAY OVER ALL
WTRS...TO 15-20 KT OVER THE BAY/OCEAN BY THE EVENG HRS AND LWR
JAMES BY ERLY OVRNGT. AT THE SAME TIME...WAVES OVER THE LWR BAY
WILL INCREASE TO 4 FT WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS UP TO 6 FT. THE SCA
WILL RUN THRU THE END OF THE 4TH PERIOD FOR NOW (SAT AFTN) BUT
MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER OUT IN TIME ESPECIALLY OVER CSTL
WTRS WITH SEAS AOA 5 FT LIKELY CONTINUING INTO SAT NGT/SUN. IN
ADDITION...THE ONSHORE FLOW AND HI WAVES WILL ENHANCE THE RIP
CURRENT THREAT FOR THE HOLIDAY WKEND. GUID CONTS TO BUILD TIDES
TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NRML BY SAT...CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS
IN SOME LOCATIONS.

WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SFC HI
WEAKENS AND FLOW BCMS MORE OUT OF THE E THAN NE. WINDS THEN TURN
TO THE S MIDWEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRNT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...MAS



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 040539
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
139 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE LOCAL AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST STATES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WEAK SFC TROUGH PERSISTS ACRS THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH LIGHT
NW FLOW ALOFT. AIRMASS REMAINS SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AS OF 02Z...EVIDENCED
BY SOME MODEST ML CAPES PER SPC MESOANALYSIS AND ISOLATED/WIDELY
SCATTERED TSTMS CONTINUING OVER NORTHERN VA AND PORTIONS OF THE
PIEDMONT. HAVE EXTENDED 20-30% POPS OVER THE FAR NORTH AND IN THE
PIEDMONT THROUGH 1 AM. OTHERWISE...WARM/HUMID UNDER VARIABLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S IN RURAL AREAS OF INTERIOR VA/MD TO THE
LWR 70S ELSEWHERE. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING IN SOME AREAS...THOUGH
WITH DEW PTS THIS HIGH RARELY SEE DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND
EXPECT MOST AREAS TO MAINTAIN VSBY OF 2SM OR GREATER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NE CONUS DURING THE SHORT
TERM. A WEAKNESS UNDER THE RIDGE LOCATES OVER THE -SE
STATES...RESULTING IN WEAK FLOW ALOFT. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE OVER
ERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WILL ALLOW STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD SWD INTO NEW ENGLAND...PUSHING A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE RGN
FRI MRNG-AFTN. SFC WNDS TURN TO THE NE FRI...RESULTING IN THE
BEGINNINGS OF A COOL DOWN. A WARM/MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS (SREF MLCAPE VALUES 1000-1500 J/KG) WILL REMAIN OVVR THE
FA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. MORE STABLE ALONG THE COAST DUE TO
ONSHORE FLOW. HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS E AND
CNTRL...BUT HAVE CONTD W/ SOLID CHANCE (40-50%) OVR THE PIEDMONT
AS WEAK S/W DROPS OVR THE RGN. VRB CLDS- PARTLY CLOUDY CONDS W/ HI
TEMPS FM THE M-U80S INVOF ERN SHORE/ALG THE CST TO THE U80S-ARND
90F INLAND.

THE WX FM FRI NGT THROUGH SUN LOOKING MORE UNSETTLED THAN BEFORE.
PDS OF LO LVL CLDS XPCD INTO SUN W/ CONTD ENE WNDS. GUSTS UP TO
25 MPH NR THE CST LT FRI NGT. MDLS TDA ARE LESS EMPHATIC ABT DRIER
AIR MASS PUSHING SSW INTO/ACRS THE FA THIS WKND. COMBO HI PRES TO
THE NNE AND LO PRES OVR SE CONUS TO KEEP MOIST ONSHORE WNDS AND
LIKELIHOOD OF WK IMPULSES TRACKING ACRS THE FA FM THE E. WILL HAVE
20-40% POPS SAT-SUN...HIGHEST IN SE VA/NE NC. CONTD BREEZY (GUSTS
TO 25-30 MPH NR THE CST IN ERN VA/NE NC) ON SAT...LESS WND XPCD
SUN. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE M-U70S NR THE CST TO ARND 80F INLAND. LO
TEMPS SAT NGT FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F. HI TEMPS SUN FM THE U70S TO
L80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF SUN NGT AND MON WITH SFC LO PRES
SPINNING OFF THE CAROLINA CST WITH HI PRES N AND W OF THE FA.
RESULTANT ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO TEMPS ONLY MAKING IT INTO THE
MID 80S MON UNDER A PRTLY-MSTLY SKY. WITH THE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLGT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER MUCH OF THE FA
SUN NGT/MON. KEPT THUNDER OUT DUE TO A LACK OF INSTABILITY. THE
SFC LO WEAKENS AND STARTS SLIDING E TUE ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDS
AND TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID/UPR 80S UNDER A PRTLY CLOUDY
SKY. DRY WX CONTINUES MIDWEEK WITH TEMPS FURTHER INCREASING AS SLY
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRNT...WITH HI TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO NR 90 WED AND THUR. THE FRNT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SOMETIME LATE THU OR FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR FOG/HAZE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A CHC
FOR BRIEF IFR VSBYS AT KPHF AND KECG BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. OTW...VFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TODAY OUTSIDE OF ISOLD TO WDLY SCT AFTN
CONVECTION...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95.

OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN AREAS OF
SHOWERS AND IN EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS SATURDAY THRU MONDAY
WITH ONSHORE FLOW. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
THE COAST ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THE
OCEAN/BAY/LWR JAMES. FOR TNGT...WEAK TROF OF LO PRES OVER THE WTRS
WILL LEAD TO VRB WINDS UNDER 10 KT. NE FLOW THEN DEVELOPS FRI AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRNT DROPS TWRDS THE REGION AND HI PRES OVERSPREADS
THE NE STATES. WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THRU THE DAY OVER ALL
WTRS...TO 15-20 KT OVER THE BAY/OCEAN BY THE EVENG HRS AND LWR
JAMES BY ERLY OVRNGT. AT THE SAME TIME...WAVES OVER THE LWR BAY
WILL INCREASE TO 4 FT WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS UP TO 6 FT. THE SCA
WILL RUN THRU THE END OF THE 4TH PERIOD FOR NOW (SAT AFTN) BUT
MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER OUT IN TIME ESPECIALLY OVER CSTL
WTRS WITH SEAS AOA 5 FT LIKELY CONTINUING INTO SAT NGT/SUN. IN
ADDITION...THE ONSHORE FLOW AND HI WAVES WILL ENHANCE THE RIP
CURRENT THREAT FOR THE HOLIDAY WKEND. GUID CONTS TO BUILD TIDES
TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NRML BY SAT...CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS
IN SOME LOCATIONS.

WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SFC HI
WEAKENS AND FLOW BCMS MORE OUT OF THE E THAN NE. WINDS THEN TURN
TO THE S MIDWEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRNT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...MAS



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 040539
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
139 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE LOCAL AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST STATES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WEAK SFC TROUGH PERSISTS ACRS THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH LIGHT
NW FLOW ALOFT. AIRMASS REMAINS SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AS OF 02Z...EVIDENCED
BY SOME MODEST ML CAPES PER SPC MESOANALYSIS AND ISOLATED/WIDELY
SCATTERED TSTMS CONTINUING OVER NORTHERN VA AND PORTIONS OF THE
PIEDMONT. HAVE EXTENDED 20-30% POPS OVER THE FAR NORTH AND IN THE
PIEDMONT THROUGH 1 AM. OTHERWISE...WARM/HUMID UNDER VARIABLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S IN RURAL AREAS OF INTERIOR VA/MD TO THE
LWR 70S ELSEWHERE. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING IN SOME AREAS...THOUGH
WITH DEW PTS THIS HIGH RARELY SEE DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND
EXPECT MOST AREAS TO MAINTAIN VSBY OF 2SM OR GREATER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NE CONUS DURING THE SHORT
TERM. A WEAKNESS UNDER THE RIDGE LOCATES OVER THE -SE
STATES...RESULTING IN WEAK FLOW ALOFT. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE OVER
ERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WILL ALLOW STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD SWD INTO NEW ENGLAND...PUSHING A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE RGN
FRI MRNG-AFTN. SFC WNDS TURN TO THE NE FRI...RESULTING IN THE
BEGINNINGS OF A COOL DOWN. A WARM/MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS (SREF MLCAPE VALUES 1000-1500 J/KG) WILL REMAIN OVVR THE
FA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. MORE STABLE ALONG THE COAST DUE TO
ONSHORE FLOW. HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS E AND
CNTRL...BUT HAVE CONTD W/ SOLID CHANCE (40-50%) OVR THE PIEDMONT
AS WEAK S/W DROPS OVR THE RGN. VRB CLDS- PARTLY CLOUDY CONDS W/ HI
TEMPS FM THE M-U80S INVOF ERN SHORE/ALG THE CST TO THE U80S-ARND
90F INLAND.

THE WX FM FRI NGT THROUGH SUN LOOKING MORE UNSETTLED THAN BEFORE.
PDS OF LO LVL CLDS XPCD INTO SUN W/ CONTD ENE WNDS. GUSTS UP TO
25 MPH NR THE CST LT FRI NGT. MDLS TDA ARE LESS EMPHATIC ABT DRIER
AIR MASS PUSHING SSW INTO/ACRS THE FA THIS WKND. COMBO HI PRES TO
THE NNE AND LO PRES OVR SE CONUS TO KEEP MOIST ONSHORE WNDS AND
LIKELIHOOD OF WK IMPULSES TRACKING ACRS THE FA FM THE E. WILL HAVE
20-40% POPS SAT-SUN...HIGHEST IN SE VA/NE NC. CONTD BREEZY (GUSTS
TO 25-30 MPH NR THE CST IN ERN VA/NE NC) ON SAT...LESS WND XPCD
SUN. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE M-U70S NR THE CST TO ARND 80F INLAND. LO
TEMPS SAT NGT FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F. HI TEMPS SUN FM THE U70S TO
L80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF SUN NGT AND MON WITH SFC LO PRES
SPINNING OFF THE CAROLINA CST WITH HI PRES N AND W OF THE FA.
RESULTANT ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO TEMPS ONLY MAKING IT INTO THE
MID 80S MON UNDER A PRTLY-MSTLY SKY. WITH THE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLGT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER MUCH OF THE FA
SUN NGT/MON. KEPT THUNDER OUT DUE TO A LACK OF INSTABILITY. THE
SFC LO WEAKENS AND STARTS SLIDING E TUE ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDS
AND TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID/UPR 80S UNDER A PRTLY CLOUDY
SKY. DRY WX CONTINUES MIDWEEK WITH TEMPS FURTHER INCREASING AS SLY
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRNT...WITH HI TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO NR 90 WED AND THUR. THE FRNT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SOMETIME LATE THU OR FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR FOG/HAZE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A CHC
FOR BRIEF IFR VSBYS AT KPHF AND KECG BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. OTW...VFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TODAY OUTSIDE OF ISOLD TO WDLY SCT AFTN
CONVECTION...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95.

OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN AREAS OF
SHOWERS AND IN EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS SATURDAY THRU MONDAY
WITH ONSHORE FLOW. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
THE COAST ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THE
OCEAN/BAY/LWR JAMES. FOR TNGT...WEAK TROF OF LO PRES OVER THE WTRS
WILL LEAD TO VRB WINDS UNDER 10 KT. NE FLOW THEN DEVELOPS FRI AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRNT DROPS TWRDS THE REGION AND HI PRES OVERSPREADS
THE NE STATES. WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THRU THE DAY OVER ALL
WTRS...TO 15-20 KT OVER THE BAY/OCEAN BY THE EVENG HRS AND LWR
JAMES BY ERLY OVRNGT. AT THE SAME TIME...WAVES OVER THE LWR BAY
WILL INCREASE TO 4 FT WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS UP TO 6 FT. THE SCA
WILL RUN THRU THE END OF THE 4TH PERIOD FOR NOW (SAT AFTN) BUT
MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER OUT IN TIME ESPECIALLY OVER CSTL
WTRS WITH SEAS AOA 5 FT LIKELY CONTINUING INTO SAT NGT/SUN. IN
ADDITION...THE ONSHORE FLOW AND HI WAVES WILL ENHANCE THE RIP
CURRENT THREAT FOR THE HOLIDAY WKEND. GUID CONTS TO BUILD TIDES
TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NRML BY SAT...CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS
IN SOME LOCATIONS.

WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SFC HI
WEAKENS AND FLOW BCMS MORE OUT OF THE E THAN NE. WINDS THEN TURN
TO THE S MIDWEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRNT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...MAS



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 040539
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
139 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE LOCAL AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST STATES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WEAK SFC TROUGH PERSISTS ACRS THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH LIGHT
NW FLOW ALOFT. AIRMASS REMAINS SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AS OF 02Z...EVIDENCED
BY SOME MODEST ML CAPES PER SPC MESOANALYSIS AND ISOLATED/WIDELY
SCATTERED TSTMS CONTINUING OVER NORTHERN VA AND PORTIONS OF THE
PIEDMONT. HAVE EXTENDED 20-30% POPS OVER THE FAR NORTH AND IN THE
PIEDMONT THROUGH 1 AM. OTHERWISE...WARM/HUMID UNDER VARIABLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S IN RURAL AREAS OF INTERIOR VA/MD TO THE
LWR 70S ELSEWHERE. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING IN SOME AREAS...THOUGH
WITH DEW PTS THIS HIGH RARELY SEE DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND
EXPECT MOST AREAS TO MAINTAIN VSBY OF 2SM OR GREATER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NE CONUS DURING THE SHORT
TERM. A WEAKNESS UNDER THE RIDGE LOCATES OVER THE -SE
STATES...RESULTING IN WEAK FLOW ALOFT. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE OVER
ERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WILL ALLOW STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD SWD INTO NEW ENGLAND...PUSHING A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE RGN
FRI MRNG-AFTN. SFC WNDS TURN TO THE NE FRI...RESULTING IN THE
BEGINNINGS OF A COOL DOWN. A WARM/MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS (SREF MLCAPE VALUES 1000-1500 J/KG) WILL REMAIN OVVR THE
FA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. MORE STABLE ALONG THE COAST DUE TO
ONSHORE FLOW. HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS E AND
CNTRL...BUT HAVE CONTD W/ SOLID CHANCE (40-50%) OVR THE PIEDMONT
AS WEAK S/W DROPS OVR THE RGN. VRB CLDS- PARTLY CLOUDY CONDS W/ HI
TEMPS FM THE M-U80S INVOF ERN SHORE/ALG THE CST TO THE U80S-ARND
90F INLAND.

THE WX FM FRI NGT THROUGH SUN LOOKING MORE UNSETTLED THAN BEFORE.
PDS OF LO LVL CLDS XPCD INTO SUN W/ CONTD ENE WNDS. GUSTS UP TO
25 MPH NR THE CST LT FRI NGT. MDLS TDA ARE LESS EMPHATIC ABT DRIER
AIR MASS PUSHING SSW INTO/ACRS THE FA THIS WKND. COMBO HI PRES TO
THE NNE AND LO PRES OVR SE CONUS TO KEEP MOIST ONSHORE WNDS AND
LIKELIHOOD OF WK IMPULSES TRACKING ACRS THE FA FM THE E. WILL HAVE
20-40% POPS SAT-SUN...HIGHEST IN SE VA/NE NC. CONTD BREEZY (GUSTS
TO 25-30 MPH NR THE CST IN ERN VA/NE NC) ON SAT...LESS WND XPCD
SUN. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE M-U70S NR THE CST TO ARND 80F INLAND. LO
TEMPS SAT NGT FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F. HI TEMPS SUN FM THE U70S TO
L80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF SUN NGT AND MON WITH SFC LO PRES
SPINNING OFF THE CAROLINA CST WITH HI PRES N AND W OF THE FA.
RESULTANT ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO TEMPS ONLY MAKING IT INTO THE
MID 80S MON UNDER A PRTLY-MSTLY SKY. WITH THE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLGT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER MUCH OF THE FA
SUN NGT/MON. KEPT THUNDER OUT DUE TO A LACK OF INSTABILITY. THE
SFC LO WEAKENS AND STARTS SLIDING E TUE ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDS
AND TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID/UPR 80S UNDER A PRTLY CLOUDY
SKY. DRY WX CONTINUES MIDWEEK WITH TEMPS FURTHER INCREASING AS SLY
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRNT...WITH HI TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO NR 90 WED AND THUR. THE FRNT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SOMETIME LATE THU OR FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR FOG/HAZE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A CHC
FOR BRIEF IFR VSBYS AT KPHF AND KECG BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. OTW...VFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TODAY OUTSIDE OF ISOLD TO WDLY SCT AFTN
CONVECTION...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95.

OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN AREAS OF
SHOWERS AND IN EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS SATURDAY THRU MONDAY
WITH ONSHORE FLOW. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
THE COAST ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THE
OCEAN/BAY/LWR JAMES. FOR TNGT...WEAK TROF OF LO PRES OVER THE WTRS
WILL LEAD TO VRB WINDS UNDER 10 KT. NE FLOW THEN DEVELOPS FRI AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRNT DROPS TWRDS THE REGION AND HI PRES OVERSPREADS
THE NE STATES. WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THRU THE DAY OVER ALL
WTRS...TO 15-20 KT OVER THE BAY/OCEAN BY THE EVENG HRS AND LWR
JAMES BY ERLY OVRNGT. AT THE SAME TIME...WAVES OVER THE LWR BAY
WILL INCREASE TO 4 FT WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS UP TO 6 FT. THE SCA
WILL RUN THRU THE END OF THE 4TH PERIOD FOR NOW (SAT AFTN) BUT
MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER OUT IN TIME ESPECIALLY OVER CSTL
WTRS WITH SEAS AOA 5 FT LIKELY CONTINUING INTO SAT NGT/SUN. IN
ADDITION...THE ONSHORE FLOW AND HI WAVES WILL ENHANCE THE RIP
CURRENT THREAT FOR THE HOLIDAY WKEND. GUID CONTS TO BUILD TIDES
TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NRML BY SAT...CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS
IN SOME LOCATIONS.

WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SFC HI
WEAKENS AND FLOW BCMS MORE OUT OF THE E THAN NE. WINDS THEN TURN
TO THE S MIDWEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRNT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...MAS



000
FXUS61 KPHI 040435
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1235 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
SATURDAY, BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY. HOWEVER, IT WILL CONTINUE
AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY, THEN PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA AROUND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED INLAND FROM THE WATERS OFF NEW JERSEY
TO MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT WAS A BIT DIFFUSE AND DIFFICULT TO FIND. HOWEVER,
IT APPEARED TO EXTEND ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY AND LONG ISLAND. THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
INTO THE SURFACE TROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH BOTH FEATURES THEN SINKING
SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH.

HIGH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS AND ALTOCUMULUS WILL
REMAIN OVERHEAD DURING THE NIGHT.

THERE WAS ONE LINGERING THUNDERSTORM IN OUR FORECAST AREA AROUND
1230 AM. IT WAS DRIFTING ACROSS THE BORDER FROM EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF DELAWARE.
IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY.

A LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST SURFACE FLOW WILL LIKELY BECOME
ESTABLISHED IN OUR REGION AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO FAVOR THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHWESTWARD
THRU THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A LAG BETWEEN THE FROPA AND
ARRIVAL OF THE COOLER AIR. THE FORMER WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON,
WHEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC NOSES SOUTHWARD DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS PRESSURE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
BREEZY E TO NE WINDS THAT WILL ADVECT COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA.
THEREFORE, THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, RANGING FROM THE 70S ALONG THE COAST AND IN NORTHERN NJ
TO NEAR 90F IN EASTERN MD. ANOTHER REASON FOR THE LARGE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS THE CLOUD COVER, WHICH WILL BE HIGHER
ACROSS NJ AND NORTHEAST PA THAN FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

WITH MORE STABLE MARINE AIR ADVECTING INLAND DURING THE DAY, THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE INLAND (OUT TOWARD
READING AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY) AND DURING
THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE AFTERNOON. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED IN THESE FAR WESTERN ZONES AND
MORE ISOLATED CLOSER TO THE DELAWARE VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING, ANY
REMAINING SHOWERS WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA OR DISSIPATE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST FROM THE NORTH
FROM SATURDAY, BEFORE IT MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY, WHICH WILL PROVIDE
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE
INDICATING THERE MAY BE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. ALL INDICATIONS ARE ANY PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE LIGHT.

ONE THING OF NOTE IS MODELS ARE INDICATING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THEY MOVE THIS LOW NORTHWARD, WHILE
WEAKENING IT, BUT KEEP IT OFFSHORE AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY TUESDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE IT GETS,
THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN A COLD FRONT, WHICH IS NOW FORECAST TO
BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY, BUT IT LOOKS MORE LIKELY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES COOL OFF SLIGHTLY SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A WARMING
TREND SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD IN OUR AREA.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD BECOME NORTHEAST WITH A VFR CIG
MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE IS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WITH
LIGHTER WINDS AND RELATIVELY CLEARER SKIES WHEN SOME FOG COULD
FORM, ESPECIALLY AT MORE RURAL AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE
IS AVERAGE AND WE HAVE SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS, EVEN IFR AT KMIV
(BECAUSE OF THEIR MURKY START THIS EVENING). WE HAVE A MENTION OF
A SHOWER AT KILG UNTIL 0700Z BASED ON THE RADAR.

FRIDAY...BEHIND THE FRONT NORTHEAST VEERING TO THE EAST WINDS
SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 10 KNOTS. A STRATOCU DECK LEVEL VFR CIG IS
PREDICTED TO PREVAIL. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALOFT FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO OCCUR AT WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN TERMINALS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO KNOW WHETHER
THEY WILL BE SPECIFICALLY IMPACTED. CHANCES DECREASES AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES ALL TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY E-NE WINDS AROUND
15- 20 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE
AROUND DAYBREAK EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HAZARDS ON THE MARINE ANTICIPATED THRU FRIDAY MORNING. NELY
WINDS WILL INCREASE THOUGH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND SCA
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER THAT AFTERNOON IN OUR
NORTHERN ZONES WITH 15- 20 KT WINDS (GUSTS TO 25 KT) AND SEAS OF
4-5 ARE FORECAST TO ARRIVE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...SEAS REMAIN ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS WITH THE EASTERLY FETCH BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WINDS REMAIN ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AS WELL FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

SUNDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...SEAS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BACK BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS THEN EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE THREAT FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL BE ENHANCED FRIDAY AND
THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

FOR THE FIRST LOOK FOR FRIDAY, WE WILL CARRY A MODERATE RISK FOR
MONMOUTH AND OCEAN COUNTIES AND LOW RISK ELSEWHERE. THIS WILL BE
REACCESSED OVERNIGHT AS ITS A TIMING ISSUE AS TO HOW QUICKLY WILL
THE NORTHEAST WINDS RAMP AS WE MOVE FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE NEW
JERSEY AND THEN DELAWARE COASTS. COULD BE A HYBRID SCENARIO OF LOW
BECOMING MODERATE AS THE AFTERNOON, EVENING CONTINUES. RIGHT NOW
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTED TO US AS BEING VERY CALM.

THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SURGE BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OF 10
TO 15 KT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY MORNING AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THRU SATURDAY. WAVES WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE TO
THIS WIND SURGE, FORECASTED TO INCREASE TO 4-6 FT BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE WINDS AND WAVES ALONG THE COAST SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SUBJECT TO CHANGE SEVERAL DAYS OUT, BUT IN-
HOUSE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A MODERATE POSSIBLY NEAR HIGH FOR
SATURDAY. THE RISK SHOULD SUBSIDE A BIT BY SUNDAY BUT IT MAY STILL
BE MODERATE.

IT IS PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT FOR SAFETY AWARENESS TO SHARE THIS
INFORMATION TO BEACHGOERS AND LIFEGUARDS WITH THE BEACH CROWD
ANTICIPATED TO BE LARGER THAN NORMAL GIVEN IT`S LABOR DAY WEEKEND
AND THERE IS PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ALL OUR BIG FOUR CLIMATE SITES HAD THEIR HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR
SO FAR TODAY. PHILADELPHIA AND WILMINGTON AT 96, ATLANTIC CITY AT
95 (DAILY RECORD) AND ALLENTOWN AT 94. IN PHILADELPHIA THIS IS THE
FIRST TIME SINCE 1970 THAT THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR HAS
OCCURRED IN SEPTEMBER.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ450-451.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...GIGI/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...GIGI
CLIMATE...GIGI



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 040233
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1033 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE LOCAL AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST STATES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WEAK SFC TROUGH PERSISTS ACRS THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH LIGHT
NW FLOW ALOFT. AIRMASS REMAINS SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AS OF 02Z...EVIDENCED
BY SOME MODEST ML CAPES PER SPC MESOANALYSIS AND ISOLATED/WIDELY
SCATTERED TSTMS CONTINUING OVER NORTHERN VA AND PORTIONS OF THE
PIEDMONT. HAVE EXTENDED 20-30% POPS OVER THE FAR NORTH AND IN THE
PIEDMONT THROUGH 1 AM. OTHERWISE...WARM/HUMID UNDER VARIABLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S IN RURAL AREAS OF INTERIOR VA/MD TO THE
LWR 70S ELSEWHERE. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING IN SOME AREAS...THOUGH
WITH DEW PTS THIS HIGH RARELY SEE DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND
EXPECT MOST AREAS TO MAINTAIN VSBY OF 2SM OR GREATER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NE CONUS DURING THE SHORT
TERM. A WEAKNESS UNDER THE RIDGE LOCATES OVER THE -SE
STATES...RESULTING IN WEAK FLOW ALOFT. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE OVER
ERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WILL ALLOW STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD SWD INTO NEW ENGLAND...PUSHING A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE RGN
FRI MRNG-AFTN. SFC WNDS TURN TO THE NE FRI...RESULTING IN THE
BEGINNINGS OF A COOL DOWN. A WARM/MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS (SREF MLCAPE VALUES 1000-1500 J/KG) WILL REMAIN OVVR THE
FA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. MORE STABLE ALONG THE COAST DUE TO
ONSHORE FLOW. HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS E AND
CNTRL...BUT HAVE CONTD W/ SOLID CHANCE (40-50%) OVR THE PIEDMONT
AS WEAK S/W DROPS OVR THE RGN. VRB CLDS- PARTLY CLOUDY CONDS W/ HI
TEMPS FM THE M-U80S INVOF ERN SHORE/ALG THE CST TO THE U80S-ARND
90F INLAND.

THE WX FM FRI NGT THROUGH SUN LOOKING MORE UNSETTLED THAN BEFORE.
PDS OF LO LVL CLDS XPCD INTO SUN W/ CONTD ENE WNDS. GUSTS UP TO
25 MPH NR THE CST LT FRI NGT. MDLS TDA ARE LESS EMPHATIC ABT DRIER
AIR MASS PUSHING SSW INTO/ACRS THE FA THIS WKND. COMBO HI PRES TO
THE NNE AND LO PRES OVR SE CONUS TO KEEP MOIST ONSHORE WNDS AND
LIKELIHOOD OF WK IMPULSES TRACKING ACRS THE FA FM THE E. WILL HAVE
20-40% POPS SAT-SUN...HIGHEST IN SE VA/NE NC. CONTD BREEZY (GUSTS
TO 25-30 MPH NR THE CST IN ERN VA/NE NC) ON SAT...LESS WND XPCD
SUN. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE M-U70S NR THE CST TO ARND 80F INLAND. LO
TEMPS SAT NGT FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F. HI TEMPS SUN FM THE U70S TO
L80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF SUN NGT AND MON WITH SFC LO PRES
SPINNING OFF THE CAROLINA CST WITH HI PRES N AND W OF THE FA.
RESULTANT ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO TEMPS ONLY MAKING IT INTO THE
MID 80S MON UNDER A PRTLY-MSTLY SKY. WITH THE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLGT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER MUCH OF THE FA
SUN NGT/MON. KEPT THUNDER OUT DUE TO A LACK OF INSTABILITY. THE
SFC LO WEAKENS AND STARTS SLIDING E TUE ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDS
AND TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID/UPR 80S UNDER A PRTLY CLOUDY
SKY. DRY WX CONTINUES MIDWEEK WITH TEMPS FURTHER INCREASING AS SLY
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRNT...WITH HI TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO NR 90 WED AND THUR. THE FRNT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SOMETIME LATE THU OR FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION STILL REMAINING ACROSS THE
REGION WHICH SHOULD GENERALLY DISSIPATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT. NO
TAF SITES ARE AT RISK FOR ANY ACTIVITY. EXPECT SOME AREAS OF MVFR
FOG/HAZE TO AGAIN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH THE CHC FOR PTCHY IFR
CONDS. SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY ALONG
BACKDOOR COLDFRONT PASSAGE.

DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THE
OCEAN/BAY/LWR JAMES. FOR TNGT...WEAK TROF OF LO PRES OVER THE WTRS
WILL LEAD TO VRB WINDS UNDER 10 KT. NE FLOW THEN DEVELOPS FRI AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRNT DROPS TWRDS THE REGION AND HI PRES OVERSPREADS
THE NE STATES. WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THRU THE DAY OVER ALL
WTRS...TO 15-20 KT OVER THE BAY/OCEAN BY THE EVENG HRS AND LWR
JAMES BY ERLY OVRNGT. AT THE SAME TIME...WAVES OVER THE LWR BAY
WILL INCREASE TO 4 FT WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS UP TO 6 FT. THE SCA
WILL RUN THRU THE END OF THE 4TH PERIOD FOR NOW (SAT AFTN) BUT
MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER OUT IN TIME ESPECIALLY OVER CSTL
WTRS WITH SEAS AOA 5 FT LIKELY CONTINUING INTO SAT NGT/SUN. IN
ADDITION...THE ONSHORE FLOW AND HI WAVES WILL ENHANCE THE RIP
CURRENT THREAT FOR THE HOLIDAY WKEND. GUID CONTS TO BUILD TIDES
TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NRML BY SAT...CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS
IN SOME LOCATIONS.

WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SFC HI
WEAKENS AND FLOW BCMS MORE OUT OF THE E THAN NE. WINDS THEN TURN
TO THE S MIDWEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRNT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR ANZ638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...DAP/JEF
MARINE...MAS



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 040233
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1033 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE LOCAL AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST STATES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WEAK SFC TROUGH PERSISTS ACRS THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH LIGHT
NW FLOW ALOFT. AIRMASS REMAINS SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AS OF 02Z...EVIDENCED
BY SOME MODEST ML CAPES PER SPC MESOANALYSIS AND ISOLATED/WIDELY
SCATTERED TSTMS CONTINUING OVER NORTHERN VA AND PORTIONS OF THE
PIEDMONT. HAVE EXTENDED 20-30% POPS OVER THE FAR NORTH AND IN THE
PIEDMONT THROUGH 1 AM. OTHERWISE...WARM/HUMID UNDER VARIABLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S IN RURAL AREAS OF INTERIOR VA/MD TO THE
LWR 70S ELSEWHERE. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING IN SOME AREAS...THOUGH
WITH DEW PTS THIS HIGH RARELY SEE DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND
EXPECT MOST AREAS TO MAINTAIN VSBY OF 2SM OR GREATER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NE CONUS DURING THE SHORT
TERM. A WEAKNESS UNDER THE RIDGE LOCATES OVER THE -SE
STATES...RESULTING IN WEAK FLOW ALOFT. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE OVER
ERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WILL ALLOW STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD SWD INTO NEW ENGLAND...PUSHING A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE RGN
FRI MRNG-AFTN. SFC WNDS TURN TO THE NE FRI...RESULTING IN THE
BEGINNINGS OF A COOL DOWN. A WARM/MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS (SREF MLCAPE VALUES 1000-1500 J/KG) WILL REMAIN OVVR THE
FA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. MORE STABLE ALONG THE COAST DUE TO
ONSHORE FLOW. HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS E AND
CNTRL...BUT HAVE CONTD W/ SOLID CHANCE (40-50%) OVR THE PIEDMONT
AS WEAK S/W DROPS OVR THE RGN. VRB CLDS- PARTLY CLOUDY CONDS W/ HI
TEMPS FM THE M-U80S INVOF ERN SHORE/ALG THE CST TO THE U80S-ARND
90F INLAND.

THE WX FM FRI NGT THROUGH SUN LOOKING MORE UNSETTLED THAN BEFORE.
PDS OF LO LVL CLDS XPCD INTO SUN W/ CONTD ENE WNDS. GUSTS UP TO
25 MPH NR THE CST LT FRI NGT. MDLS TDA ARE LESS EMPHATIC ABT DRIER
AIR MASS PUSHING SSW INTO/ACRS THE FA THIS WKND. COMBO HI PRES TO
THE NNE AND LO PRES OVR SE CONUS TO KEEP MOIST ONSHORE WNDS AND
LIKELIHOOD OF WK IMPULSES TRACKING ACRS THE FA FM THE E. WILL HAVE
20-40% POPS SAT-SUN...HIGHEST IN SE VA/NE NC. CONTD BREEZY (GUSTS
TO 25-30 MPH NR THE CST IN ERN VA/NE NC) ON SAT...LESS WND XPCD
SUN. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE M-U70S NR THE CST TO ARND 80F INLAND. LO
TEMPS SAT NGT FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F. HI TEMPS SUN FM THE U70S TO
L80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF SUN NGT AND MON WITH SFC LO PRES
SPINNING OFF THE CAROLINA CST WITH HI PRES N AND W OF THE FA.
RESULTANT ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO TEMPS ONLY MAKING IT INTO THE
MID 80S MON UNDER A PRTLY-MSTLY SKY. WITH THE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLGT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER MUCH OF THE FA
SUN NGT/MON. KEPT THUNDER OUT DUE TO A LACK OF INSTABILITY. THE
SFC LO WEAKENS AND STARTS SLIDING E TUE ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDS
AND TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID/UPR 80S UNDER A PRTLY CLOUDY
SKY. DRY WX CONTINUES MIDWEEK WITH TEMPS FURTHER INCREASING AS SLY
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRNT...WITH HI TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO NR 90 WED AND THUR. THE FRNT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SOMETIME LATE THU OR FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION STILL REMAINING ACROSS THE
REGION WHICH SHOULD GENERALLY DISSIPATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT. NO
TAF SITES ARE AT RISK FOR ANY ACTIVITY. EXPECT SOME AREAS OF MVFR
FOG/HAZE TO AGAIN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH THE CHC FOR PTCHY IFR
CONDS. SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY ALONG
BACKDOOR COLDFRONT PASSAGE.

DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THE
OCEAN/BAY/LWR JAMES. FOR TNGT...WEAK TROF OF LO PRES OVER THE WTRS
WILL LEAD TO VRB WINDS UNDER 10 KT. NE FLOW THEN DEVELOPS FRI AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRNT DROPS TWRDS THE REGION AND HI PRES OVERSPREADS
THE NE STATES. WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THRU THE DAY OVER ALL
WTRS...TO 15-20 KT OVER THE BAY/OCEAN BY THE EVENG HRS AND LWR
JAMES BY ERLY OVRNGT. AT THE SAME TIME...WAVES OVER THE LWR BAY
WILL INCREASE TO 4 FT WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS UP TO 6 FT. THE SCA
WILL RUN THRU THE END OF THE 4TH PERIOD FOR NOW (SAT AFTN) BUT
MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER OUT IN TIME ESPECIALLY OVER CSTL
WTRS WITH SEAS AOA 5 FT LIKELY CONTINUING INTO SAT NGT/SUN. IN
ADDITION...THE ONSHORE FLOW AND HI WAVES WILL ENHANCE THE RIP
CURRENT THREAT FOR THE HOLIDAY WKEND. GUID CONTS TO BUILD TIDES
TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NRML BY SAT...CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS
IN SOME LOCATIONS.

WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SFC HI
WEAKENS AND FLOW BCMS MORE OUT OF THE E THAN NE. WINDS THEN TURN
TO THE S MIDWEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRNT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR ANZ638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...DAP/JEF
MARINE...MAS



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 040233
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1033 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE LOCAL AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST STATES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WEAK SFC TROUGH PERSISTS ACRS THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH LIGHT
NW FLOW ALOFT. AIRMASS REMAINS SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AS OF 02Z...EVIDENCED
BY SOME MODEST ML CAPES PER SPC MESOANALYSIS AND ISOLATED/WIDELY
SCATTERED TSTMS CONTINUING OVER NORTHERN VA AND PORTIONS OF THE
PIEDMONT. HAVE EXTENDED 20-30% POPS OVER THE FAR NORTH AND IN THE
PIEDMONT THROUGH 1 AM. OTHERWISE...WARM/HUMID UNDER VARIABLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S IN RURAL AREAS OF INTERIOR VA/MD TO THE
LWR 70S ELSEWHERE. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING IN SOME AREAS...THOUGH
WITH DEW PTS THIS HIGH RARELY SEE DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND
EXPECT MOST AREAS TO MAINTAIN VSBY OF 2SM OR GREATER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NE CONUS DURING THE SHORT
TERM. A WEAKNESS UNDER THE RIDGE LOCATES OVER THE -SE
STATES...RESULTING IN WEAK FLOW ALOFT. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE OVER
ERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WILL ALLOW STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD SWD INTO NEW ENGLAND...PUSHING A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE RGN
FRI MRNG-AFTN. SFC WNDS TURN TO THE NE FRI...RESULTING IN THE
BEGINNINGS OF A COOL DOWN. A WARM/MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS (SREF MLCAPE VALUES 1000-1500 J/KG) WILL REMAIN OVVR THE
FA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. MORE STABLE ALONG THE COAST DUE TO
ONSHORE FLOW. HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS E AND
CNTRL...BUT HAVE CONTD W/ SOLID CHANCE (40-50%) OVR THE PIEDMONT
AS WEAK S/W DROPS OVR THE RGN. VRB CLDS- PARTLY CLOUDY CONDS W/ HI
TEMPS FM THE M-U80S INVOF ERN SHORE/ALG THE CST TO THE U80S-ARND
90F INLAND.

THE WX FM FRI NGT THROUGH SUN LOOKING MORE UNSETTLED THAN BEFORE.
PDS OF LO LVL CLDS XPCD INTO SUN W/ CONTD ENE WNDS. GUSTS UP TO
25 MPH NR THE CST LT FRI NGT. MDLS TDA ARE LESS EMPHATIC ABT DRIER
AIR MASS PUSHING SSW INTO/ACRS THE FA THIS WKND. COMBO HI PRES TO
THE NNE AND LO PRES OVR SE CONUS TO KEEP MOIST ONSHORE WNDS AND
LIKELIHOOD OF WK IMPULSES TRACKING ACRS THE FA FM THE E. WILL HAVE
20-40% POPS SAT-SUN...HIGHEST IN SE VA/NE NC. CONTD BREEZY (GUSTS
TO 25-30 MPH NR THE CST IN ERN VA/NE NC) ON SAT...LESS WND XPCD
SUN. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE M-U70S NR THE CST TO ARND 80F INLAND. LO
TEMPS SAT NGT FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F. HI TEMPS SUN FM THE U70S TO
L80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF SUN NGT AND MON WITH SFC LO PRES
SPINNING OFF THE CAROLINA CST WITH HI PRES N AND W OF THE FA.
RESULTANT ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO TEMPS ONLY MAKING IT INTO THE
MID 80S MON UNDER A PRTLY-MSTLY SKY. WITH THE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLGT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER MUCH OF THE FA
SUN NGT/MON. KEPT THUNDER OUT DUE TO A LACK OF INSTABILITY. THE
SFC LO WEAKENS AND STARTS SLIDING E TUE ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDS
AND TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID/UPR 80S UNDER A PRTLY CLOUDY
SKY. DRY WX CONTINUES MIDWEEK WITH TEMPS FURTHER INCREASING AS SLY
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRNT...WITH HI TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO NR 90 WED AND THUR. THE FRNT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SOMETIME LATE THU OR FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION STILL REMAINING ACROSS THE
REGION WHICH SHOULD GENERALLY DISSIPATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT. NO
TAF SITES ARE AT RISK FOR ANY ACTIVITY. EXPECT SOME AREAS OF MVFR
FOG/HAZE TO AGAIN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH THE CHC FOR PTCHY IFR
CONDS. SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY ALONG
BACKDOOR COLDFRONT PASSAGE.

DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THE
OCEAN/BAY/LWR JAMES. FOR TNGT...WEAK TROF OF LO PRES OVER THE WTRS
WILL LEAD TO VRB WINDS UNDER 10 KT. NE FLOW THEN DEVELOPS FRI AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRNT DROPS TWRDS THE REGION AND HI PRES OVERSPREADS
THE NE STATES. WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THRU THE DAY OVER ALL
WTRS...TO 15-20 KT OVER THE BAY/OCEAN BY THE EVENG HRS AND LWR
JAMES BY ERLY OVRNGT. AT THE SAME TIME...WAVES OVER THE LWR BAY
WILL INCREASE TO 4 FT WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS UP TO 6 FT. THE SCA
WILL RUN THRU THE END OF THE 4TH PERIOD FOR NOW (SAT AFTN) BUT
MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER OUT IN TIME ESPECIALLY OVER CSTL
WTRS WITH SEAS AOA 5 FT LIKELY CONTINUING INTO SAT NGT/SUN. IN
ADDITION...THE ONSHORE FLOW AND HI WAVES WILL ENHANCE THE RIP
CURRENT THREAT FOR THE HOLIDAY WKEND. GUID CONTS TO BUILD TIDES
TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NRML BY SAT...CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS
IN SOME LOCATIONS.

WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SFC HI
WEAKENS AND FLOW BCMS MORE OUT OF THE E THAN NE. WINDS THEN TURN
TO THE S MIDWEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRNT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR ANZ638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...DAP/JEF
MARINE...MAS



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 040233
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1033 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE LOCAL AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST STATES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WEAK SFC TROUGH PERSISTS ACRS THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH LIGHT
NW FLOW ALOFT. AIRMASS REMAINS SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AS OF 02Z...EVIDENCED
BY SOME MODEST ML CAPES PER SPC MESOANALYSIS AND ISOLATED/WIDELY
SCATTERED TSTMS CONTINUING OVER NORTHERN VA AND PORTIONS OF THE
PIEDMONT. HAVE EXTENDED 20-30% POPS OVER THE FAR NORTH AND IN THE
PIEDMONT THROUGH 1 AM. OTHERWISE...WARM/HUMID UNDER VARIABLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S IN RURAL AREAS OF INTERIOR VA/MD TO THE
LWR 70S ELSEWHERE. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING IN SOME AREAS...THOUGH
WITH DEW PTS THIS HIGH RARELY SEE DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND
EXPECT MOST AREAS TO MAINTAIN VSBY OF 2SM OR GREATER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NE CONUS DURING THE SHORT
TERM. A WEAKNESS UNDER THE RIDGE LOCATES OVER THE -SE
STATES...RESULTING IN WEAK FLOW ALOFT. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE OVER
ERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WILL ALLOW STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD SWD INTO NEW ENGLAND...PUSHING A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE RGN
FRI MRNG-AFTN. SFC WNDS TURN TO THE NE FRI...RESULTING IN THE
BEGINNINGS OF A COOL DOWN. A WARM/MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS (SREF MLCAPE VALUES 1000-1500 J/KG) WILL REMAIN OVVR THE
FA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. MORE STABLE ALONG THE COAST DUE TO
ONSHORE FLOW. HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS E AND
CNTRL...BUT HAVE CONTD W/ SOLID CHANCE (40-50%) OVR THE PIEDMONT
AS WEAK S/W DROPS OVR THE RGN. VRB CLDS- PARTLY CLOUDY CONDS W/ HI
TEMPS FM THE M-U80S INVOF ERN SHORE/ALG THE CST TO THE U80S-ARND
90F INLAND.

THE WX FM FRI NGT THROUGH SUN LOOKING MORE UNSETTLED THAN BEFORE.
PDS OF LO LVL CLDS XPCD INTO SUN W/ CONTD ENE WNDS. GUSTS UP TO
25 MPH NR THE CST LT FRI NGT. MDLS TDA ARE LESS EMPHATIC ABT DRIER
AIR MASS PUSHING SSW INTO/ACRS THE FA THIS WKND. COMBO HI PRES TO
THE NNE AND LO PRES OVR SE CONUS TO KEEP MOIST ONSHORE WNDS AND
LIKELIHOOD OF WK IMPULSES TRACKING ACRS THE FA FM THE E. WILL HAVE
20-40% POPS SAT-SUN...HIGHEST IN SE VA/NE NC. CONTD BREEZY (GUSTS
TO 25-30 MPH NR THE CST IN ERN VA/NE NC) ON SAT...LESS WND XPCD
SUN. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE M-U70S NR THE CST TO ARND 80F INLAND. LO
TEMPS SAT NGT FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F. HI TEMPS SUN FM THE U70S TO
L80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF SUN NGT AND MON WITH SFC LO PRES
SPINNING OFF THE CAROLINA CST WITH HI PRES N AND W OF THE FA.
RESULTANT ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO TEMPS ONLY MAKING IT INTO THE
MID 80S MON UNDER A PRTLY-MSTLY SKY. WITH THE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLGT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER MUCH OF THE FA
SUN NGT/MON. KEPT THUNDER OUT DUE TO A LACK OF INSTABILITY. THE
SFC LO WEAKENS AND STARTS SLIDING E TUE ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDS
AND TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID/UPR 80S UNDER A PRTLY CLOUDY
SKY. DRY WX CONTINUES MIDWEEK WITH TEMPS FURTHER INCREASING AS SLY
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRNT...WITH HI TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO NR 90 WED AND THUR. THE FRNT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SOMETIME LATE THU OR FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION STILL REMAINING ACROSS THE
REGION WHICH SHOULD GENERALLY DISSIPATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT. NO
TAF SITES ARE AT RISK FOR ANY ACTIVITY. EXPECT SOME AREAS OF MVFR
FOG/HAZE TO AGAIN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH THE CHC FOR PTCHY IFR
CONDS. SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY ALONG
BACKDOOR COLDFRONT PASSAGE.

DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THE
OCEAN/BAY/LWR JAMES. FOR TNGT...WEAK TROF OF LO PRES OVER THE WTRS
WILL LEAD TO VRB WINDS UNDER 10 KT. NE FLOW THEN DEVELOPS FRI AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRNT DROPS TWRDS THE REGION AND HI PRES OVERSPREADS
THE NE STATES. WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THRU THE DAY OVER ALL
WTRS...TO 15-20 KT OVER THE BAY/OCEAN BY THE EVENG HRS AND LWR
JAMES BY ERLY OVRNGT. AT THE SAME TIME...WAVES OVER THE LWR BAY
WILL INCREASE TO 4 FT WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS UP TO 6 FT. THE SCA
WILL RUN THRU THE END OF THE 4TH PERIOD FOR NOW (SAT AFTN) BUT
MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER OUT IN TIME ESPECIALLY OVER CSTL
WTRS WITH SEAS AOA 5 FT LIKELY CONTINUING INTO SAT NGT/SUN. IN
ADDITION...THE ONSHORE FLOW AND HI WAVES WILL ENHANCE THE RIP
CURRENT THREAT FOR THE HOLIDAY WKEND. GUID CONTS TO BUILD TIDES
TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NRML BY SAT...CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS
IN SOME LOCATIONS.

WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SFC HI
WEAKENS AND FLOW BCMS MORE OUT OF THE E THAN NE. WINDS THEN TURN
TO THE S MIDWEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRNT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR ANZ638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...DAP/JEF
MARINE...MAS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 040229
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1029 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD DURING THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAKENING TSTMS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS OF 0030Z. SBCAPE VALUES
DCRSNG WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THOUGH MUCAPE STILL WELL
ABV 2K J/KG. WEAK SFC TROUGH HAS NUDGED EAST OF THE AREA...SO NO
REAL SFC MECHANISM TO TRIGGER ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AT LEAST
OVER WESTERN AREAS. WEAK VORT MAX OVER EASTERN PA COULD DIP OVER
EASTERN MD OVERNIGHT...WITH PSBL SHOWERS FORMING. ANY PCPN THAT
DOES FORM WILL TAPER OFF LATE...WITH DRY CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK.
INCREASED LOW LVL MOISTURE ESP OVER THE VALLEYS OF SHENANDOAH AND
LIGHT WINDS COULD LEAD TO PATCHY FOG.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY AND THIS WILL
SEND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA. AN EASTERLY WIND WILL
DEVELOP AND IT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT AS TODAY...BUT STILL
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN AROUND WITH THE
MAIN DEWPOINT AND TEMPERATURE GRADIENT REMAINING OFF TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST DURING THE DAY. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ALONG WITH THE
BOUNDARY WILL CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE BACKDOOR BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE ALLEGHENY AND
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA FRIDAY NIGHT. CONVECTION
SHOULD DISSIPATE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE NEAR THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE ALLEGHENY AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TOWARD CENTRAL VIRGINIA. THE
EASTERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP DUE TO
MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. DRIER AIR MAY EVENTUALLY SNEAK
INTO NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND TOWARD MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUDS WILL GREATLY LIMIT TEMPERATURES WITH MOST
AREAS SATURDAY BELOW NORMAL. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY LOOK TO BE UPR
70S/LOW 80S. THIS IS PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS WEST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE
WERE UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW BRINGS SOME CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN TO SRN
MD SUNDAY...OTW DRY. GREATER SUNSHINE SUNDAY SHOULD BRING MAX TEMPS
UP TO THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESS DOMINATES CONDITIONS FOR SUN NIGHT AND MON BRINGING
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE LABOR DAY WKND. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING A WEAK LOW PRESS SYSTEM WILL DRIFT NORTH
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THAT WILL ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE ATLC
INTO OUR REGION MON INTO TUE. THIS COULD BRING SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TO OUR REGION... MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA ON MONDAY AND
OVER ALL OF OUR CWA TUE AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. HIGH PRESS
BUILDS IN ON WED BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON THU INCREASING
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE COLD
FRONT IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW
80S TO THE UPR 90S NEAR THE METRO AREA AND LOW 80S TO OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
THRU THE TAF PERIOD. PSBL FOG AT KCHO/KMRB...REDUCING VIS 2-4
MILES. ANY FOG THAT FORMS WILL DISSIPATE 13-15Z.

DRY CONDITIONS FRI MORNING...WITH SCT TSTMS BY THE AFTN...ESP
KCHO/KMRB. TIMING AND LOCATION OF AFTN CONVECTION TOO LOW IN
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM. ANY TSTM COULD BRING SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WITH HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS.

LIGHT/VRB WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME ELY BY FRI AFTN. THE ELY FLOW
WILL AIDE IN LOWERING CIGS FOR FRI NIGHT.

ONSHORE FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. MVFR CIGS LIFT SATURDAY WITH VFR THEN THROUGH SUNDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN NIGHT AND MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT THRU FRI MORNING. AN EASTERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FRI AFTN. WINDS
WILL INCREASE WITH A PRESSURE SURGE FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS
DURING THIS TIME. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ONSHORE FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. SCA FOR MOST WATERS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO THE
EVENING...THEN SOME CHANCES AGAIN SUNDAY WITH MOST WIND CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO BE AOB 15 KT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON. SOME SHOWERS
AND TSTMS PSBL OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW HAS WEAKENED OVER THE WATERS AND THIS
HAS ALLOWED FOR ANOMALIES TO INCREASE. THE FLOW WILL TURN TO THE
EAST FRIDAY BUT IT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP WATER LEVELS
BELOW FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE NEAR TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...SOME SITES MAY APPROACH RECORD
DAILY HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

BELOW IS A TABLE OF RECORD DAILY HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR
SEPTEMBER 4TH.

SITE.....RECORD MAX MIN FOR SEP 4................
DCA...76 (SET IN 2012 AND 1953)..................
BWI...75 (SET IN 2012/1953/1944/1937 AND 1932)...
IAD...71 (SET IN 2012)...........................

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL/SEARS
SHORT TERM...BAJ/BJL
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...BAJ/BJL/SEARS/IMR
MARINE...BAJ/BJL/SEARS/IMR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BAJ/BJL
CLIMATE...DFH



000
FXUS61 KLWX 040229
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1029 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD DURING THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAKENING TSTMS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS OF 0030Z. SBCAPE VALUES
DCRSNG WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THOUGH MUCAPE STILL WELL
ABV 2K J/KG. WEAK SFC TROUGH HAS NUDGED EAST OF THE AREA...SO NO
REAL SFC MECHANISM TO TRIGGER ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AT LEAST
OVER WESTERN AREAS. WEAK VORT MAX OVER EASTERN PA COULD DIP OVER
EASTERN MD OVERNIGHT...WITH PSBL SHOWERS FORMING. ANY PCPN THAT
DOES FORM WILL TAPER OFF LATE...WITH DRY CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK.
INCREASED LOW LVL MOISTURE ESP OVER THE VALLEYS OF SHENANDOAH AND
LIGHT WINDS COULD LEAD TO PATCHY FOG.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY AND THIS WILL
SEND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA. AN EASTERLY WIND WILL
DEVELOP AND IT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT AS TODAY...BUT STILL
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN AROUND WITH THE
MAIN DEWPOINT AND TEMPERATURE GRADIENT REMAINING OFF TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST DURING THE DAY. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ALONG WITH THE
BOUNDARY WILL CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE BACKDOOR BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE ALLEGHENY AND
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA FRIDAY NIGHT. CONVECTION
SHOULD DISSIPATE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE NEAR THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE ALLEGHENY AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TOWARD CENTRAL VIRGINIA. THE
EASTERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP DUE TO
MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. DRIER AIR MAY EVENTUALLY SNEAK
INTO NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND TOWARD MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUDS WILL GREATLY LIMIT TEMPERATURES WITH MOST
AREAS SATURDAY BELOW NORMAL. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY LOOK TO BE UPR
70S/LOW 80S. THIS IS PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS WEST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE
WERE UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW BRINGS SOME CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN TO SRN
MD SUNDAY...OTW DRY. GREATER SUNSHINE SUNDAY SHOULD BRING MAX TEMPS
UP TO THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESS DOMINATES CONDITIONS FOR SUN NIGHT AND MON BRINGING
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE LABOR DAY WKND. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING A WEAK LOW PRESS SYSTEM WILL DRIFT NORTH
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THAT WILL ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE ATLC
INTO OUR REGION MON INTO TUE. THIS COULD BRING SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TO OUR REGION... MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA ON MONDAY AND
OVER ALL OF OUR CWA TUE AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. HIGH PRESS
BUILDS IN ON WED BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON THU INCREASING
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE COLD
FRONT IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW
80S TO THE UPR 90S NEAR THE METRO AREA AND LOW 80S TO OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
THRU THE TAF PERIOD. PSBL FOG AT KCHO/KMRB...REDUCING VIS 2-4
MILES. ANY FOG THAT FORMS WILL DISSIPATE 13-15Z.

DRY CONDITIONS FRI MORNING...WITH SCT TSTMS BY THE AFTN...ESP
KCHO/KMRB. TIMING AND LOCATION OF AFTN CONVECTION TOO LOW IN
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM. ANY TSTM COULD BRING SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WITH HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS.

LIGHT/VRB WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME ELY BY FRI AFTN. THE ELY FLOW
WILL AIDE IN LOWERING CIGS FOR FRI NIGHT.

ONSHORE FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. MVFR CIGS LIFT SATURDAY WITH VFR THEN THROUGH SUNDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN NIGHT AND MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT THRU FRI MORNING. AN EASTERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FRI AFTN. WINDS
WILL INCREASE WITH A PRESSURE SURGE FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS
DURING THIS TIME. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ONSHORE FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. SCA FOR MOST WATERS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO THE
EVENING...THEN SOME CHANCES AGAIN SUNDAY WITH MOST WIND CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO BE AOB 15 KT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON. SOME SHOWERS
AND TSTMS PSBL OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW HAS WEAKENED OVER THE WATERS AND THIS
HAS ALLOWED FOR ANOMALIES TO INCREASE. THE FLOW WILL TURN TO THE
EAST FRIDAY BUT IT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP WATER LEVELS
BELOW FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE NEAR TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...SOME SITES MAY APPROACH RECORD
DAILY HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

BELOW IS A TABLE OF RECORD DAILY HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR
SEPTEMBER 4TH.

SITE.....RECORD MAX MIN FOR SEP 4................
DCA...76 (SET IN 2012 AND 1953)..................
BWI...75 (SET IN 2012/1953/1944/1937 AND 1932)...
IAD...71 (SET IN 2012)...........................

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL/SEARS
SHORT TERM...BAJ/BJL
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...BAJ/BJL/SEARS/IMR
MARINE...BAJ/BJL/SEARS/IMR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BAJ/BJL
CLIMATE...DFH




000
FXUS61 KLWX 040229
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1029 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD DURING THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAKENING TSTMS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS OF 0030Z. SBCAPE VALUES
DCRSNG WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THOUGH MUCAPE STILL WELL
ABV 2K J/KG. WEAK SFC TROUGH HAS NUDGED EAST OF THE AREA...SO NO
REAL SFC MECHANISM TO TRIGGER ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AT LEAST
OVER WESTERN AREAS. WEAK VORT MAX OVER EASTERN PA COULD DIP OVER
EASTERN MD OVERNIGHT...WITH PSBL SHOWERS FORMING. ANY PCPN THAT
DOES FORM WILL TAPER OFF LATE...WITH DRY CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK.
INCREASED LOW LVL MOISTURE ESP OVER THE VALLEYS OF SHENANDOAH AND
LIGHT WINDS COULD LEAD TO PATCHY FOG.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY AND THIS WILL
SEND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA. AN EASTERLY WIND WILL
DEVELOP AND IT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT AS TODAY...BUT STILL
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN AROUND WITH THE
MAIN DEWPOINT AND TEMPERATURE GRADIENT REMAINING OFF TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST DURING THE DAY. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ALONG WITH THE
BOUNDARY WILL CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE BACKDOOR BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE ALLEGHENY AND
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA FRIDAY NIGHT. CONVECTION
SHOULD DISSIPATE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE NEAR THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE ALLEGHENY AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TOWARD CENTRAL VIRGINIA. THE
EASTERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP DUE TO
MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. DRIER AIR MAY EVENTUALLY SNEAK
INTO NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND TOWARD MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUDS WILL GREATLY LIMIT TEMPERATURES WITH MOST
AREAS SATURDAY BELOW NORMAL. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY LOOK TO BE UPR
70S/LOW 80S. THIS IS PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS WEST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE
WERE UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW BRINGS SOME CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN TO SRN
MD SUNDAY...OTW DRY. GREATER SUNSHINE SUNDAY SHOULD BRING MAX TEMPS
UP TO THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESS DOMINATES CONDITIONS FOR SUN NIGHT AND MON BRINGING
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE LABOR DAY WKND. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING A WEAK LOW PRESS SYSTEM WILL DRIFT NORTH
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THAT WILL ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE ATLC
INTO OUR REGION MON INTO TUE. THIS COULD BRING SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TO OUR REGION... MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA ON MONDAY AND
OVER ALL OF OUR CWA TUE AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. HIGH PRESS
BUILDS IN ON WED BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON THU INCREASING
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE COLD
FRONT IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW
80S TO THE UPR 90S NEAR THE METRO AREA AND LOW 80S TO OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
THRU THE TAF PERIOD. PSBL FOG AT KCHO/KMRB...REDUCING VIS 2-4
MILES. ANY FOG THAT FORMS WILL DISSIPATE 13-15Z.

DRY CONDITIONS FRI MORNING...WITH SCT TSTMS BY THE AFTN...ESP
KCHO/KMRB. TIMING AND LOCATION OF AFTN CONVECTION TOO LOW IN
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM. ANY TSTM COULD BRING SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WITH HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS.

LIGHT/VRB WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME ELY BY FRI AFTN. THE ELY FLOW
WILL AIDE IN LOWERING CIGS FOR FRI NIGHT.

ONSHORE FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. MVFR CIGS LIFT SATURDAY WITH VFR THEN THROUGH SUNDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN NIGHT AND MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT THRU FRI MORNING. AN EASTERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FRI AFTN. WINDS
WILL INCREASE WITH A PRESSURE SURGE FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS
DURING THIS TIME. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ONSHORE FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. SCA FOR MOST WATERS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO THE
EVENING...THEN SOME CHANCES AGAIN SUNDAY WITH MOST WIND CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO BE AOB 15 KT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON. SOME SHOWERS
AND TSTMS PSBL OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW HAS WEAKENED OVER THE WATERS AND THIS
HAS ALLOWED FOR ANOMALIES TO INCREASE. THE FLOW WILL TURN TO THE
EAST FRIDAY BUT IT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP WATER LEVELS
BELOW FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE NEAR TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...SOME SITES MAY APPROACH RECORD
DAILY HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

BELOW IS A TABLE OF RECORD DAILY HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR
SEPTEMBER 4TH.

SITE.....RECORD MAX MIN FOR SEP 4................
DCA...76 (SET IN 2012 AND 1953)..................
BWI...75 (SET IN 2012/1953/1944/1937 AND 1932)...
IAD...71 (SET IN 2012)...........................

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL/SEARS
SHORT TERM...BAJ/BJL
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...BAJ/BJL/SEARS/IMR
MARINE...BAJ/BJL/SEARS/IMR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BAJ/BJL
CLIMATE...DFH



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 040215
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1015 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE TO BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN
OHIO COUNTIES WITH UPSTREAM SHOWERS PUSHING CONSISTENTLY TO THE
SOUTH.

WITH 915PM UPDATE...DECIDED TO KEEP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AREAWIDE CONSIDERING AN
OCCASIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EVEN WITH LOSS
OF CONVECTIVE HEATING. THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
ERIE IS MOVING ONSHORE IN NORTHWESTERN OHIO...AND DECIDED TO KEEP
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION ACROSS OHIO AFTER MIDNIGHT IN CASE
THESE STORMS ARE ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

ABOVE AVERAGE WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE. EXPECT LOWS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMALS.

SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE DIURNALLY SUPPORTED CONVECTION IS AGAIN
EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE SUPPORT ANTICIPATED. NO CHANGE
TO WARM AIRMASS THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH IS PROJECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD
ACROSS PA UNDER A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE
AND WARMTH ALOFT WILL INHIBIT DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. RELIEF FROM THE
QUITE WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH COLD FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...AS WELL AS AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MARRED BY SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS
EVENING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR AS FOG DEVELOPS BY DAWN.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 040215
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1015 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE TO BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN
OHIO COUNTIES WITH UPSTREAM SHOWERS PUSHING CONSISTENTLY TO THE
SOUTH.

WITH 915PM UPDATE...DECIDED TO KEEP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AREAWIDE CONSIDERING AN
OCCASIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EVEN WITH LOSS
OF CONVECTIVE HEATING. THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
ERIE IS MOVING ONSHORE IN NORTHWESTERN OHIO...AND DECIDED TO KEEP
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION ACROSS OHIO AFTER MIDNIGHT IN CASE
THESE STORMS ARE ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

ABOVE AVERAGE WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE. EXPECT LOWS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMALS.

SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE DIURNALLY SUPPORTED CONVECTION IS AGAIN
EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE SUPPORT ANTICIPATED. NO CHANGE
TO WARM AIRMASS THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH IS PROJECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD
ACROSS PA UNDER A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE
AND WARMTH ALOFT WILL INHIBIT DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. RELIEF FROM THE
QUITE WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH COLD FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...AS WELL AS AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MARRED BY SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS
EVENING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR AS FOG DEVELOPS BY DAWN.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 040215
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1015 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE TO BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN
OHIO COUNTIES WITH UPSTREAM SHOWERS PUSHING CONSISTENTLY TO THE
SOUTH.

WITH 915PM UPDATE...DECIDED TO KEEP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AREAWIDE CONSIDERING AN
OCCASIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EVEN WITH LOSS
OF CONVECTIVE HEATING. THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
ERIE IS MOVING ONSHORE IN NORTHWESTERN OHIO...AND DECIDED TO KEEP
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION ACROSS OHIO AFTER MIDNIGHT IN CASE
THESE STORMS ARE ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

ABOVE AVERAGE WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE. EXPECT LOWS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMALS.

SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE DIURNALLY SUPPORTED CONVECTION IS AGAIN
EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE SUPPORT ANTICIPATED. NO CHANGE
TO WARM AIRMASS THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH IS PROJECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD
ACROSS PA UNDER A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE
AND WARMTH ALOFT WILL INHIBIT DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. RELIEF FROM THE
QUITE WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH COLD FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...AS WELL AS AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MARRED BY SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS
EVENING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR AS FOG DEVELOPS BY DAWN.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 040124
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
924 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST
STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ANOTHER SUMMERY AFTN W/ SCT CU AND HEAT INDICES RANGING THROUGH
THE 90S. MUCH LESS COVERAGE TO PCPN ATTM...AND TRENDS IN HI-RES
MDLS SUPPORTS IDEA OF LESS CONVECTION THIS EVE AS COMPARED TO WED
EVE. WILL CONT TO CARRY 20-30% FM THE BAY W THROUGH ABT
01-04Z/04...W/ ONLY AN ISOLD TSTM PSBL INVOF BAY/ERN SHORE AND OVR
THE OCN. PARTLY CLOUDY-SKC OVRNGT W/ TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
U60S-L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NE CONUS DURING THE SHORT
TERM. A WEAKNESS UNDER THE RIDGE LOCATES OVER THE MDATLC-SE
STATES...RESULTING IN WEAK FLOW ALOFT. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE
OVER ERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WILL ALLOW STRONG SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD SWD INTO NEW ENGLAND...PUSHING A BACKDOOR FRONT
INTO THE RGN FRI MRNG-AFTN. SFC WNDS TURN TO THE NE
FRI...RESULTING IN THE BEGINNINGS OF A COOL DOWN. A WARM/MOIST
AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS (SREF MLCAPE VALUES 1000-1500
J/KG) WILL REMAIN OVVR THE FA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. MORE STABLE
ALONG THE COAST DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW. HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT CHC TO
CHC POPS E AND CNTRL...BUT HAVE CONTD W/ SOLID CHANCE (40-50%) OVR
THE PIEDMONT AS WEAK S/W DROPS OVR THE RGN. VRB CLDS- PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDS W/ HI TEMPS FM THE M-U80S INVOF ERN SHORE/ALG THE CST
TO THE U80S-ARND 90F INLAND.

THE WX FM FRI NGT THROUGH SUN LOOKING MORE UNSETTLED THAN BEFORE.
PDS OF LO LVL CLDS XPCD INTO SUN W/ CONTD ENE WNDS. GUSTS UP TO
25 MPH NR THE CST LT FRI NGT. MDLS TDA ARE LESS EMPHATIC ABT DRIER
AIR MASS PUSHING SSW INTO/ACRS THE FA THIS WKND. COMBO HI PRES TO
THE NNE AND LO PRES OVR SE CONUS TO KEEP MOIST ONSHORE WNDS AND
LIKELIHOOD OF WK IMPULSES TRACKING ACRS THE FA FM THE E. WILL HAVE
20-40% POPS SAT-SUN...HIGHEST IN SE VA/NE NC. CONTD BREEZY (GUSTS
TO 25-30 MPH NR THE CST IN ERN VA/NE NC) ON SAT...LESS WND XPCD
SUN. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE M-U70S NR THE CST TO ARND 80F INLAND. LO
TEMPS SAT NGT FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F. HI TEMPS SUN FM THE U70S TO
L80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF SUN NGT AND MON WITH SFC LO PRES
SPINNING OFF THE CAROLINA CST WITH HI PRES N AND W OF THE FA.
RESULTANT ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO TEMPS ONLY MAKING IT INTO THE
MID 80S MON UNDER A PRTLY-MSTLY SKY. WITH THE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLGT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER MUCH OF THE FA
SUN NGT/MON. KEPT THUNDER OUT DUE TO A LACK OF INSTABILITY. THE
SFC LO WEAKENS AND STARTS SLIDING E TUE ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDS
AND TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID/UPR 80S UNDER A PRTLY CLOUDY
SKY. DRY WX CONTINUES MIDWEEK WITH TEMPS FURTHER INCREASING AS SLY
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRNT...WITH HI TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO NR 90 WED AND THUR. THE FRNT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SOMETIME LATE THU OR FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION STILL REMAINING ACROSS THE
REGION WHICH SHOULD GENERALLY DISSIPATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT. NO
TAF SITES ARE AT RISK FOR ANY ACTIVITY. EXPECT SOME AREAS OF MVFR
FOG/HAZE TO AGAIN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH THE CHC FOR PTCHY IFR
CONDS. SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY ALONG
BACKDOOR COLDFRONT PASSAGE.

DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THE
OCEAN/BAY/LWR JAMES. FOR TNGT...WEAK TROF OF LO PRES OVER THE WTRS
WILL LEAD TO VRB WINDS UNDER 10 KT. NE FLOW THEN DEVELOPS FRI AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRNT DROPS TWRDS THE REGION AND HI PRES OVERSPREADS
THE NE STATES. WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THRU THE DAY OVER ALL
WTRS...TO 15-20 KT OVER THE BAY/OCEAN BY THE EVENG HRS AND LWR
JAMES BY ERLY OVRNGT. AT THE SAME TIME...WAVES OVER THE LWR BAY
WILL INCREASE TO 4 FT WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS UP TO 6 FT. THE SCA
WILL RUN THRU THE END OF THE 4TH PERIOD FOR NOW (SAT AFTN) BUT
MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER OUT IN TIME ESPECIALLY OVER CSTL
WTRS WITH SEAS AOA 5 FT LIKELY CONTINUING INTO SAT NGT/SUN. IN
ADDITION...THE ONSHORE FLOW AND HI WAVES WILL ENHANCE THE RIP
CURRENT THREAT FOR THE HOLIDAY WKEND. GUID CONTS TO BUILD TIDES
TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NRML BY SAT...CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS
IN SOME LOCATIONS.

WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SFC HI
WEAKENS AND FLOW BCMS MORE OUT OF THE E THAN NE. WINDS THEN TURN
TO THE S MIDWEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRNT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR ANZ638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...DAP/JEF
MARINE...MAS



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 040124
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
924 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST
STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ANOTHER SUMMERY AFTN W/ SCT CU AND HEAT INDICES RANGING THROUGH
THE 90S. MUCH LESS COVERAGE TO PCPN ATTM...AND TRENDS IN HI-RES
MDLS SUPPORTS IDEA OF LESS CONVECTION THIS EVE AS COMPARED TO WED
EVE. WILL CONT TO CARRY 20-30% FM THE BAY W THROUGH ABT
01-04Z/04...W/ ONLY AN ISOLD TSTM PSBL INVOF BAY/ERN SHORE AND OVR
THE OCN. PARTLY CLOUDY-SKC OVRNGT W/ TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
U60S-L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NE CONUS DURING THE SHORT
TERM. A WEAKNESS UNDER THE RIDGE LOCATES OVER THE MDATLC-SE
STATES...RESULTING IN WEAK FLOW ALOFT. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE
OVER ERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WILL ALLOW STRONG SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD SWD INTO NEW ENGLAND...PUSHING A BACKDOOR FRONT
INTO THE RGN FRI MRNG-AFTN. SFC WNDS TURN TO THE NE
FRI...RESULTING IN THE BEGINNINGS OF A COOL DOWN. A WARM/MOIST
AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS (SREF MLCAPE VALUES 1000-1500
J/KG) WILL REMAIN OVVR THE FA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. MORE STABLE
ALONG THE COAST DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW. HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT CHC TO
CHC POPS E AND CNTRL...BUT HAVE CONTD W/ SOLID CHANCE (40-50%) OVR
THE PIEDMONT AS WEAK S/W DROPS OVR THE RGN. VRB CLDS- PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDS W/ HI TEMPS FM THE M-U80S INVOF ERN SHORE/ALG THE CST
TO THE U80S-ARND 90F INLAND.

THE WX FM FRI NGT THROUGH SUN LOOKING MORE UNSETTLED THAN BEFORE.
PDS OF LO LVL CLDS XPCD INTO SUN W/ CONTD ENE WNDS. GUSTS UP TO
25 MPH NR THE CST LT FRI NGT. MDLS TDA ARE LESS EMPHATIC ABT DRIER
AIR MASS PUSHING SSW INTO/ACRS THE FA THIS WKND. COMBO HI PRES TO
THE NNE AND LO PRES OVR SE CONUS TO KEEP MOIST ONSHORE WNDS AND
LIKELIHOOD OF WK IMPULSES TRACKING ACRS THE FA FM THE E. WILL HAVE
20-40% POPS SAT-SUN...HIGHEST IN SE VA/NE NC. CONTD BREEZY (GUSTS
TO 25-30 MPH NR THE CST IN ERN VA/NE NC) ON SAT...LESS WND XPCD
SUN. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE M-U70S NR THE CST TO ARND 80F INLAND. LO
TEMPS SAT NGT FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F. HI TEMPS SUN FM THE U70S TO
L80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF SUN NGT AND MON WITH SFC LO PRES
SPINNING OFF THE CAROLINA CST WITH HI PRES N AND W OF THE FA.
RESULTANT ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO TEMPS ONLY MAKING IT INTO THE
MID 80S MON UNDER A PRTLY-MSTLY SKY. WITH THE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLGT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER MUCH OF THE FA
SUN NGT/MON. KEPT THUNDER OUT DUE TO A LACK OF INSTABILITY. THE
SFC LO WEAKENS AND STARTS SLIDING E TUE ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDS
AND TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID/UPR 80S UNDER A PRTLY CLOUDY
SKY. DRY WX CONTINUES MIDWEEK WITH TEMPS FURTHER INCREASING AS SLY
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRNT...WITH HI TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO NR 90 WED AND THUR. THE FRNT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SOMETIME LATE THU OR FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION STILL REMAINING ACROSS THE
REGION WHICH SHOULD GENERALLY DISSIPATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT. NO
TAF SITES ARE AT RISK FOR ANY ACTIVITY. EXPECT SOME AREAS OF MVFR
FOG/HAZE TO AGAIN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH THE CHC FOR PTCHY IFR
CONDS. SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY ALONG
BACKDOOR COLDFRONT PASSAGE.

DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THE
OCEAN/BAY/LWR JAMES. FOR TNGT...WEAK TROF OF LO PRES OVER THE WTRS
WILL LEAD TO VRB WINDS UNDER 10 KT. NE FLOW THEN DEVELOPS FRI AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRNT DROPS TWRDS THE REGION AND HI PRES OVERSPREADS
THE NE STATES. WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THRU THE DAY OVER ALL
WTRS...TO 15-20 KT OVER THE BAY/OCEAN BY THE EVENG HRS AND LWR
JAMES BY ERLY OVRNGT. AT THE SAME TIME...WAVES OVER THE LWR BAY
WILL INCREASE TO 4 FT WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS UP TO 6 FT. THE SCA
WILL RUN THRU THE END OF THE 4TH PERIOD FOR NOW (SAT AFTN) BUT
MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER OUT IN TIME ESPECIALLY OVER CSTL
WTRS WITH SEAS AOA 5 FT LIKELY CONTINUING INTO SAT NGT/SUN. IN
ADDITION...THE ONSHORE FLOW AND HI WAVES WILL ENHANCE THE RIP
CURRENT THREAT FOR THE HOLIDAY WKEND. GUID CONTS TO BUILD TIDES
TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NRML BY SAT...CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS
IN SOME LOCATIONS.

WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SFC HI
WEAKENS AND FLOW BCMS MORE OUT OF THE E THAN NE. WINDS THEN TURN
TO THE S MIDWEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRNT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR ANZ638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...DAP/JEF
MARINE...MAS



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 040124
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
924 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST
STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ANOTHER SUMMERY AFTN W/ SCT CU AND HEAT INDICES RANGING THROUGH
THE 90S. MUCH LESS COVERAGE TO PCPN ATTM...AND TRENDS IN HI-RES
MDLS SUPPORTS IDEA OF LESS CONVECTION THIS EVE AS COMPARED TO WED
EVE. WILL CONT TO CARRY 20-30% FM THE BAY W THROUGH ABT
01-04Z/04...W/ ONLY AN ISOLD TSTM PSBL INVOF BAY/ERN SHORE AND OVR
THE OCN. PARTLY CLOUDY-SKC OVRNGT W/ TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
U60S-L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NE CONUS DURING THE SHORT
TERM. A WEAKNESS UNDER THE RIDGE LOCATES OVER THE MDATLC-SE
STATES...RESULTING IN WEAK FLOW ALOFT. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE
OVER ERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WILL ALLOW STRONG SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD SWD INTO NEW ENGLAND...PUSHING A BACKDOOR FRONT
INTO THE RGN FRI MRNG-AFTN. SFC WNDS TURN TO THE NE
FRI...RESULTING IN THE BEGINNINGS OF A COOL DOWN. A WARM/MOIST
AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS (SREF MLCAPE VALUES 1000-1500
J/KG) WILL REMAIN OVVR THE FA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. MORE STABLE
ALONG THE COAST DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW. HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT CHC TO
CHC POPS E AND CNTRL...BUT HAVE CONTD W/ SOLID CHANCE (40-50%) OVR
THE PIEDMONT AS WEAK S/W DROPS OVR THE RGN. VRB CLDS- PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDS W/ HI TEMPS FM THE M-U80S INVOF ERN SHORE/ALG THE CST
TO THE U80S-ARND 90F INLAND.

THE WX FM FRI NGT THROUGH SUN LOOKING MORE UNSETTLED THAN BEFORE.
PDS OF LO LVL CLDS XPCD INTO SUN W/ CONTD ENE WNDS. GUSTS UP TO
25 MPH NR THE CST LT FRI NGT. MDLS TDA ARE LESS EMPHATIC ABT DRIER
AIR MASS PUSHING SSW INTO/ACRS THE FA THIS WKND. COMBO HI PRES TO
THE NNE AND LO PRES OVR SE CONUS TO KEEP MOIST ONSHORE WNDS AND
LIKELIHOOD OF WK IMPULSES TRACKING ACRS THE FA FM THE E. WILL HAVE
20-40% POPS SAT-SUN...HIGHEST IN SE VA/NE NC. CONTD BREEZY (GUSTS
TO 25-30 MPH NR THE CST IN ERN VA/NE NC) ON SAT...LESS WND XPCD
SUN. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE M-U70S NR THE CST TO ARND 80F INLAND. LO
TEMPS SAT NGT FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F. HI TEMPS SUN FM THE U70S TO
L80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF SUN NGT AND MON WITH SFC LO PRES
SPINNING OFF THE CAROLINA CST WITH HI PRES N AND W OF THE FA.
RESULTANT ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO TEMPS ONLY MAKING IT INTO THE
MID 80S MON UNDER A PRTLY-MSTLY SKY. WITH THE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLGT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER MUCH OF THE FA
SUN NGT/MON. KEPT THUNDER OUT DUE TO A LACK OF INSTABILITY. THE
SFC LO WEAKENS AND STARTS SLIDING E TUE ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDS
AND TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID/UPR 80S UNDER A PRTLY CLOUDY
SKY. DRY WX CONTINUES MIDWEEK WITH TEMPS FURTHER INCREASING AS SLY
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRNT...WITH HI TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO NR 90 WED AND THUR. THE FRNT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SOMETIME LATE THU OR FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION STILL REMAINING ACROSS THE
REGION WHICH SHOULD GENERALLY DISSIPATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT. NO
TAF SITES ARE AT RISK FOR ANY ACTIVITY. EXPECT SOME AREAS OF MVFR
FOG/HAZE TO AGAIN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH THE CHC FOR PTCHY IFR
CONDS. SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY ALONG
BACKDOOR COLDFRONT PASSAGE.

DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THE
OCEAN/BAY/LWR JAMES. FOR TNGT...WEAK TROF OF LO PRES OVER THE WTRS
WILL LEAD TO VRB WINDS UNDER 10 KT. NE FLOW THEN DEVELOPS FRI AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRNT DROPS TWRDS THE REGION AND HI PRES OVERSPREADS
THE NE STATES. WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THRU THE DAY OVER ALL
WTRS...TO 15-20 KT OVER THE BAY/OCEAN BY THE EVENG HRS AND LWR
JAMES BY ERLY OVRNGT. AT THE SAME TIME...WAVES OVER THE LWR BAY
WILL INCREASE TO 4 FT WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS UP TO 6 FT. THE SCA
WILL RUN THRU THE END OF THE 4TH PERIOD FOR NOW (SAT AFTN) BUT
MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER OUT IN TIME ESPECIALLY OVER CSTL
WTRS WITH SEAS AOA 5 FT LIKELY CONTINUING INTO SAT NGT/SUN. IN
ADDITION...THE ONSHORE FLOW AND HI WAVES WILL ENHANCE THE RIP
CURRENT THREAT FOR THE HOLIDAY WKEND. GUID CONTS TO BUILD TIDES
TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NRML BY SAT...CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS
IN SOME LOCATIONS.

WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SFC HI
WEAKENS AND FLOW BCMS MORE OUT OF THE E THAN NE. WINDS THEN TURN
TO THE S MIDWEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRNT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR ANZ638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...DAP/JEF
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 040113
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
913 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH 915PM UPDATE...DECIDED TO KEEP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AREAWIDE CONSIDERING AN
OCCASIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EVEN WITH LOSS
OF CONVECTIVE HEATING. THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
ERIE IS MOVING ONSHORE IN NORTHWESTERN OHIO...AND DECIDED TO KEEP
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION ACROSS OHIO AFTER MIDNIGHT IN CASE
THESE STORMS ARE ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

ABOVE AVERAGE WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE. EXPECT LOWS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMALS.

SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE DIURNALLY SUPPORTED CONVECTION IS AGAIN
EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE SUPPORT ANTICIPATED. NO CHANGE
TO WARM AIRMASS THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH IS PROJECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD
ACROSS PA UNDER A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE
AND WARMTH ALOFT WILL INHIBIT DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. RELIEF FROM THE
QUITE WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH COLD FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...AS WELL AS AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MARRED BY SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS
EVENING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR AS FOG DEVELOPS BY DAWN.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 040113
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
913 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH 915PM UPDATE...DECIDED TO KEEP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AREAWIDE CONSIDERING AN
OCCASIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EVEN WITH LOSS
OF CONVECTIVE HEATING. THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
ERIE IS MOVING ONSHORE IN NORTHWESTERN OHIO...AND DECIDED TO KEEP
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION ACROSS OHIO AFTER MIDNIGHT IN CASE
THESE STORMS ARE ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

ABOVE AVERAGE WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE. EXPECT LOWS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMALS.

SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE DIURNALLY SUPPORTED CONVECTION IS AGAIN
EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE SUPPORT ANTICIPATED. NO CHANGE
TO WARM AIRMASS THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH IS PROJECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD
ACROSS PA UNDER A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE
AND WARMTH ALOFT WILL INHIBIT DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. RELIEF FROM THE
QUITE WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH COLD FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...AS WELL AS AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MARRED BY SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS
EVENING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR AS FOG DEVELOPS BY DAWN.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 040113
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
913 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH 915PM UPDATE...DECIDED TO KEEP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AREAWIDE CONSIDERING AN
OCCASIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EVEN WITH LOSS
OF CONVECTIVE HEATING. THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
ERIE IS MOVING ONSHORE IN NORTHWESTERN OHIO...AND DECIDED TO KEEP
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION ACROSS OHIO AFTER MIDNIGHT IN CASE
THESE STORMS ARE ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

ABOVE AVERAGE WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE. EXPECT LOWS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMALS.

SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE DIURNALLY SUPPORTED CONVECTION IS AGAIN
EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE SUPPORT ANTICIPATED. NO CHANGE
TO WARM AIRMASS THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH IS PROJECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD
ACROSS PA UNDER A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE
AND WARMTH ALOFT WILL INHIBIT DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. RELIEF FROM THE
QUITE WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH COLD FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...AS WELL AS AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MARRED BY SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS
EVENING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR AS FOG DEVELOPS BY DAWN.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 040113
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
913 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH 915PM UPDATE...DECIDED TO KEEP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AREAWIDE CONSIDERING AN
OCCASIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EVEN WITH LOSS
OF CONVECTIVE HEATING. THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
ERIE IS MOVING ONSHORE IN NORTHWESTERN OHIO...AND DECIDED TO KEEP
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION ACROSS OHIO AFTER MIDNIGHT IN CASE
THESE STORMS ARE ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

ABOVE AVERAGE WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE. EXPECT LOWS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMALS.

SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE DIURNALLY SUPPORTED CONVECTION IS AGAIN
EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE SUPPORT ANTICIPATED. NO CHANGE
TO WARM AIRMASS THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH IS PROJECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD
ACROSS PA UNDER A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE
AND WARMTH ALOFT WILL INHIBIT DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. RELIEF FROM THE
QUITE WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH COLD FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...AS WELL AS AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MARRED BY SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS
EVENING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR AS FOG DEVELOPS BY DAWN.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 040113
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
913 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH 915PM UPDATE...DECIDED TO KEEP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AREAWIDE CONSIDERING AN
OCCASIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EVEN WITH LOSS
OF CONVECTIVE HEATING. THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
ERIE IS MOVING ONSHORE IN NORTHWESTERN OHIO...AND DECIDED TO KEEP
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION ACROSS OHIO AFTER MIDNIGHT IN CASE
THESE STORMS ARE ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

ABOVE AVERAGE WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE. EXPECT LOWS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMALS.

SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE DIURNALLY SUPPORTED CONVECTION IS AGAIN
EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE SUPPORT ANTICIPATED. NO CHANGE
TO WARM AIRMASS THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH IS PROJECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD
ACROSS PA UNDER A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE
AND WARMTH ALOFT WILL INHIBIT DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. RELIEF FROM THE
QUITE WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH COLD FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...AS WELL AS AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MARRED BY SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS
EVENING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR AS FOG DEVELOPS BY DAWN.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 040113
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
913 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH 915PM UPDATE...DECIDED TO KEEP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AREAWIDE CONSIDERING AN
OCCASIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EVEN WITH LOSS
OF CONVECTIVE HEATING. THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
ERIE IS MOVING ONSHORE IN NORTHWESTERN OHIO...AND DECIDED TO KEEP
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION ACROSS OHIO AFTER MIDNIGHT IN CASE
THESE STORMS ARE ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

ABOVE AVERAGE WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE. EXPECT LOWS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMALS.

SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE DIURNALLY SUPPORTED CONVECTION IS AGAIN
EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE SUPPORT ANTICIPATED. NO CHANGE
TO WARM AIRMASS THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH IS PROJECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD
ACROSS PA UNDER A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE
AND WARMTH ALOFT WILL INHIBIT DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. RELIEF FROM THE
QUITE WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH COLD FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...AS WELL AS AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MARRED BY SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS
EVENING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR AS FOG DEVELOPS BY DAWN.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPHI 040107
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
907 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
SATURDAY, BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY. HOWEVER, IT WILL CONTINUE
AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY, THEN PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA AROUND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WE WILL CONTINUE WITH NO BIG CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. MAINLY A
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT ADJUSTMENT. THERE IS STILL SOME
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY THAT WILL BECOME MORE ELEVATED
OVERNIGHT. BUT FOR NOW IT REMAINS SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE TO
GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. LOOKS LIKE OROGRAPHIC
LIFTING WITH A LITTLE WIND CONVERGENCE IS BECOMING THE
BEST TRIGGER. LATEST HRRR/COSPA SUGGESTING EVEN THIS FORCING
SHOULD NOT BE SUFFICIENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THIS IS ONE OF THOSE CASES WHERE THE SURFACE FRONT DEFINITELY
DOES NOT LIE IN THE PRESSURE TROF (WHICH IS EAST OF I95 CORRIDOR)
THIS EVENING AS IT STILL IS UP OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND. IT WILL CONTINUE TO EASE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES FROM THIS MORNING`S UPDATE TO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING POP/WX GRIDS. WE ARE HIGHLIGHTING ONE
AREA FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS THE REST OF NIGHT:
MAINLY IN NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WHERE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IS TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS.

THE COLD FRONT BOUNDARY WILL START TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PRECIP WITH IT OVERNIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES BEFOREHAND. DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THIS
EVENING`S CONVECTION WILL IMPACT NE PA AND NW NJ. ELSEWHERE,
EXPECT CLOUDS WILL BE MUCH MORE SCATTERED AND THE WINDS WILL RELAX
THIS EVENING, ALLOWING THE SURFACE TO RADIATE MORE EFFECTIVELY.
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND WILL MOVE
SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE EARLY MORNING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.
THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE EXTENT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHWESTWARD THRU
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A LAG BETWEEN THE FROPA AND
ARRIVAL OF THE COOLER AIR. THE FORMER WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON,
WHEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC NOSES SOUTHWARD DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS PRESSURE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BREEZY
E TO NE WINDS THAT WILL ADVECT COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA. THEREFORE,
THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
RANGING FROM THE 70S ALONG THE COAST AND IN NORTHERN NJ TO NEAR 90F
IN EASTERN MD. ANOTHER REASON FOR THE LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS
THE CLOUD COVER, WHICH WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS NJ AND NORTHEAST PA
THAN FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

WITH MORE STABLE MARINE AIR ADVECTING INLAND DURING THE DAY, THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE INLAND (OUT TOWARD
READING AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY) AND DURING THE
PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE AFTERNOON. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED IN THESE FAR WESTERN ZONES AND MORE
ISOLATED CLOSER TO THE DELAWARE VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING, ANY
REMAINING SHOWERS WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA OR DISSIPATE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST FROM THE NORTH
FROM SATURDAY, BEFORE IT MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY, WHICH WILL PROVIDE
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE
INDICATING THERE MAY BE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. ALL INDICATIONS ARE ANY PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE LIGHT.

ONE THING OF NOTE IS MODELS ARE INDICATING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THEY MOVE THIS LOW NORTHWARD, WHILE
WEAKENING IT, BUT KEEP IT OFFSHORE AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY TUESDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE IT GETS,
THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN A COLD FRONT, WHICH IS NOW FORECAST TO
BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY, BUT IT LOOKS MORE LIKELY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES COOL OFF SLIGHTLY SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A WARMING
TREND SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

00Z TAFS SOME MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND THEN PRIMARILY VFR ON
FRIDAY.

REST OF THIS EVENING...CONVECTION EXPECTED TO MISS THE TERMINALS.
KILG AMENDMENT LIKELY WAS NOT NECESSARY. VFR DEBRIS CLOUDS
AROUND. AT KACY AND KMIV, VSBYS ARE ALREADY BORDERLINE MVFR AND WE
STARTED SOME EVENING MVFR RESTRICTIONS THERE. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT.

OVERNIGHT...A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL START SAGGING SOUTH INTO OUR
AREA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD BECOME NORTHEAST TOWARD
DAYBREAK WITH A VFR CIG MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE IS A
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND RELATIVELY CLEARER
SKIES WHEN SOME FOG COULD FORM, ESPECIALLY AT MORE RURAL AIRPORTS
AND TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE AND WE HAVE SOME MVFR
RESTRICTIONS, EVEN IFR AT KMIV (BECAUSE OF THEIR MURKY START THIS
EVENING).

FRIDAY...BEHIND THE FRONT NORTHEAST VEERING TO THE EAST WINDS
SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 10 KNOTS. A STRATOCU DECK LEVEL VFR CIG IS
PREDICTED TO PREVAIL. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALOFT FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO OCCUR AT WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN TERMINALS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO KNOW WHETHER
THEY WILL BE SPECIFICALLY IMPACTED. CHANCES DECREASES AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES ALL TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY E-NE WINDS AROUND 15-
20 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE AROUND
DAYBREAK EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HAZARDS ON THE MARINE ANTICIPATED THRU FRIDAY MORNING. NELY
WINDS WILL INCREASE THOUGH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND SCA
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER THAT AFTERNOON IN OUR
NORTHERN ZONES WITH 15- 20 KT WINDS (GUSTS TO 25 KT) AND SEAS OF
4-5 ARE FORECAST TO ARRIVE.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...SEAS REMAIN ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS WITH THE EASTERLY FETCH BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WINDS REMAIN ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AS WELL FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

SUNDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...SEAS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BACK BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS THEN EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE THREAT FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL BE ENHANCED FRIDAY AND
THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

FOR THE FIRST LOOK FOR FRIDAY, WE WILL CARRY A MODERATE RISK
FOR MONMOUTH AND OCEAN COUNTIES AND LOW RISK ELSEWHERE. THIS WILL
BE REACCESSED OVERNIGHT AS ITS A TIMING ISSUE AS TO HOW QUICKLY
WILL THE NORTHEAST WINDS RAMP AS WE MOVE FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY AND THEN DELAWARE COASTS. COULD BE A HYBRID SCENARIO
OF LOW BECOMING MODERATE AS THE AFTERNOON, EVENING CONTINUES.
RIGHT NOW CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTED TO US AS BEING VERY CALM.

THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SURGE BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OF 10
TO 15 KT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY MORNING AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THRU SATURDAY. WAVES WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE TO
THIS WIND SURGE, FORECASTED TO INCREASE TO 4-6 FT BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE WINDS AND WAVES ALONG THE COAST SHOULD GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SUBJECT TO CHANGE SEVERAL DAYS
OUT, BUT IN-HOUSE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A MODERATE POSSIBLY NEAR
HIGH FOR SATURDAY. THE RISK SHOULD SUBSIDE A BIT BY SUNDAY BUT IT
MAY STILL BE MODERATE.

IT IS PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT FOR SAFETY AWARENESS TO SHARE THIS
INFORMATION TO BEACHGOERS AND LIFEGUARDS WITH THE BEACH CROWD
ANTICIPATED TO BE LARGER THAN NORMAL GIVEN IT`S LABOR DAY WEEKEND
AND THERE IS PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ALL OUR BIG FOUR CLIMATE SITES HAD THEIR HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR
SO FAR TODAY. PHILADELPHIA AND WILMINGTON AT 96, ATLANTIC CITY AT
95 (DAILY RECORD) AND ALLENTOWN AT 94. IN PHILADELPHIA
THIS IS THE FIRST TIME SINCE 1970 THAT THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR
HAS OCCURRED IN SEPTEMBER.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ450-451.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...GIGI/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 040107
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
907 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
SATURDAY, BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY. HOWEVER, IT WILL CONTINUE
AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY, THEN PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA AROUND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WE WILL CONTINUE WITH NO BIG CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. MAINLY A
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT ADJUSTMENT. THERE IS STILL SOME
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY THAT WILL BECOME MORE ELEVATED
OVERNIGHT. BUT FOR NOW IT REMAINS SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE TO
GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. LOOKS LIKE OROGRAPHIC
LIFTING WITH A LITTLE WIND CONVERGENCE IS BECOMING THE
BEST TRIGGER. LATEST HRRR/COSPA SUGGESTING EVEN THIS FORCING
SHOULD NOT BE SUFFICIENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THIS IS ONE OF THOSE CASES WHERE THE SURFACE FRONT DEFINITELY
DOES NOT LIE IN THE PRESSURE TROF (WHICH IS EAST OF I95 CORRIDOR)
THIS EVENING AS IT STILL IS UP OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND. IT WILL CONTINUE TO EASE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES FROM THIS MORNING`S UPDATE TO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING POP/WX GRIDS. WE ARE HIGHLIGHTING ONE
AREA FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS THE REST OF NIGHT:
MAINLY IN NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WHERE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IS TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS.

THE COLD FRONT BOUNDARY WILL START TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PRECIP WITH IT OVERNIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES BEFOREHAND. DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THIS
EVENING`S CONVECTION WILL IMPACT NE PA AND NW NJ. ELSEWHERE,
EXPECT CLOUDS WILL BE MUCH MORE SCATTERED AND THE WINDS WILL RELAX
THIS EVENING, ALLOWING THE SURFACE TO RADIATE MORE EFFECTIVELY.
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND WILL MOVE
SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE EARLY MORNING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.
THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE EXTENT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHWESTWARD THRU
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A LAG BETWEEN THE FROPA AND
ARRIVAL OF THE COOLER AIR. THE FORMER WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON,
WHEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC NOSES SOUTHWARD DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS PRESSURE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BREEZY
E TO NE WINDS THAT WILL ADVECT COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA. THEREFORE,
THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
RANGING FROM THE 70S ALONG THE COAST AND IN NORTHERN NJ TO NEAR 90F
IN EASTERN MD. ANOTHER REASON FOR THE LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS
THE CLOUD COVER, WHICH WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS NJ AND NORTHEAST PA
THAN FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

WITH MORE STABLE MARINE AIR ADVECTING INLAND DURING THE DAY, THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE INLAND (OUT TOWARD
READING AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY) AND DURING THE
PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE AFTERNOON. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED IN THESE FAR WESTERN ZONES AND MORE
ISOLATED CLOSER TO THE DELAWARE VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING, ANY
REMAINING SHOWERS WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA OR DISSIPATE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST FROM THE NORTH
FROM SATURDAY, BEFORE IT MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY, WHICH WILL PROVIDE
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE
INDICATING THERE MAY BE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. ALL INDICATIONS ARE ANY PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE LIGHT.

ONE THING OF NOTE IS MODELS ARE INDICATING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THEY MOVE THIS LOW NORTHWARD, WHILE
WEAKENING IT, BUT KEEP IT OFFSHORE AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY TUESDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE IT GETS,
THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN A COLD FRONT, WHICH IS NOW FORECAST TO
BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY, BUT IT LOOKS MORE LIKELY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES COOL OFF SLIGHTLY SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A WARMING
TREND SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

00Z TAFS SOME MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND THEN PRIMARILY VFR ON
FRIDAY.

REST OF THIS EVENING...CONVECTION EXPECTED TO MISS THE TERMINALS.
KILG AMENDMENT LIKELY WAS NOT NECESSARY. VFR DEBRIS CLOUDS
AROUND. AT KACY AND KMIV, VSBYS ARE ALREADY BORDERLINE MVFR AND WE
STARTED SOME EVENING MVFR RESTRICTIONS THERE. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT.

OVERNIGHT...A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL START SAGGING SOUTH INTO OUR
AREA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD BECOME NORTHEAST TOWARD
DAYBREAK WITH A VFR CIG MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE IS A
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND RELATIVELY CLEARER
SKIES WHEN SOME FOG COULD FORM, ESPECIALLY AT MORE RURAL AIRPORTS
AND TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE AND WE HAVE SOME MVFR
RESTRICTIONS, EVEN IFR AT KMIV (BECAUSE OF THEIR MURKY START THIS
EVENING).

FRIDAY...BEHIND THE FRONT NORTHEAST VEERING TO THE EAST WINDS
SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 10 KNOTS. A STRATOCU DECK LEVEL VFR CIG IS
PREDICTED TO PREVAIL. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALOFT FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO OCCUR AT WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN TERMINALS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO KNOW WHETHER
THEY WILL BE SPECIFICALLY IMPACTED. CHANCES DECREASES AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES ALL TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY E-NE WINDS AROUND 15-
20 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE AROUND
DAYBREAK EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HAZARDS ON THE MARINE ANTICIPATED THRU FRIDAY MORNING. NELY
WINDS WILL INCREASE THOUGH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND SCA
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER THAT AFTERNOON IN OUR
NORTHERN ZONES WITH 15- 20 KT WINDS (GUSTS TO 25 KT) AND SEAS OF
4-5 ARE FORECAST TO ARRIVE.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...SEAS REMAIN ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS WITH THE EASTERLY FETCH BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WINDS REMAIN ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AS WELL FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

SUNDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...SEAS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BACK BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS THEN EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE THREAT FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL BE ENHANCED FRIDAY AND
THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

FOR THE FIRST LOOK FOR FRIDAY, WE WILL CARRY A MODERATE RISK
FOR MONMOUTH AND OCEAN COUNTIES AND LOW RISK ELSEWHERE. THIS WILL
BE REACCESSED OVERNIGHT AS ITS A TIMING ISSUE AS TO HOW QUICKLY
WILL THE NORTHEAST WINDS RAMP AS WE MOVE FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY AND THEN DELAWARE COASTS. COULD BE A HYBRID SCENARIO
OF LOW BECOMING MODERATE AS THE AFTERNOON, EVENING CONTINUES.
RIGHT NOW CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTED TO US AS BEING VERY CALM.

THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SURGE BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OF 10
TO 15 KT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY MORNING AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THRU SATURDAY. WAVES WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE TO
THIS WIND SURGE, FORECASTED TO INCREASE TO 4-6 FT BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE WINDS AND WAVES ALONG THE COAST SHOULD GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SUBJECT TO CHANGE SEVERAL DAYS
OUT, BUT IN-HOUSE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A MODERATE POSSIBLY NEAR
HIGH FOR SATURDAY. THE RISK SHOULD SUBSIDE A BIT BY SUNDAY BUT IT
MAY STILL BE MODERATE.

IT IS PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT FOR SAFETY AWARENESS TO SHARE THIS
INFORMATION TO BEACHGOERS AND LIFEGUARDS WITH THE BEACH CROWD
ANTICIPATED TO BE LARGER THAN NORMAL GIVEN IT`S LABOR DAY WEEKEND
AND THERE IS PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ALL OUR BIG FOUR CLIMATE SITES HAD THEIR HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR
SO FAR TODAY. PHILADELPHIA AND WILMINGTON AT 96, ATLANTIC CITY AT
95 (DAILY RECORD) AND ALLENTOWN AT 94. IN PHILADELPHIA
THIS IS THE FIRST TIME SINCE 1970 THAT THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR
HAS OCCURRED IN SEPTEMBER.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ450-451.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...GIGI/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KLWX 040052
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
852 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD DURING THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAKENING TSTMS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS OF 0030Z. SBCAPE VALUES
DCRSNG WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THOUGH MUCAPE STILL WELL
ABV 2K J/KG. WEAK SFC TROUGH HAS NUDGED EAST OF THE AREA...SO NO
REAL SFC MECHANISM TO TRIGGER ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AT LEAST
OVER WESTERN AREAS. WEAK VORT MAX OVER EASTERN PA COULD DIP OVER
EASTERN MD OVERNIGHT...WITH PSBL SHOWERS FORMING. ANY PCPN THAT
DOES FORM WILL TAPER OFF LATE...WITH DRY CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK.
INCREASED LOW LVL MOISTURE ESP OVER THE VALLEYS OF SHENANDOAH AND
LIGHT WINDS COULD LEAD TO PATCHY FOG.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY AND THIS WILL
SEND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA. AN EASTERLY WIND WILL
DEVELOP AND IT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT AS TODAY...BUT STILL
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN AROUND WITH THE
MAIN DEWPOINT AND TEMPERATURE GRADIENT REMAINING OFF TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST DURING THE DAY. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ALONG WITH THE
BOUNDARY WILL CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE BACKDOOR BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE ALLEGHENY AND
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA FRIDAY NIGHT. CONVECTION
SHOULD DISSIPATE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE NEAR THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE ALLEGHENY AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TOWARD CENTRAL VIRGINIA. THE
EASTERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP DUE TO
MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. DRIER AIR MAY EVENTUALLY SNEAK
INTO NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND TOWARD MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUDS WILL GREATLY LIMIT TEMPERATURES WITH MOST
AREAS SATURDAY BELOW NORMAL. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY LOOK TO BE UPR
70S/LOW 80S. THIS IS PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS WEST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE
WERE UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW BRINGS SOME CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN TO SRN
MD SUNDAY...OTW DRY. GREATER SUNSHINE SUNDAY SHOULD BRING MAX TEMPS
UP TO THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESS DOMINATES CONDITIONS FOR SUN NIGHT AND MON BRINGING
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE LABOR DAY WKND. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING A WEAK LOW PRESS SYSTEM WILL DRIFT NORTH
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THAT WILL ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE ATLC
INTO OUR REGION MON INTO TUE. THIS COULD BRING SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TO OUR REGION... MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA ON MONDAY AND
OVER ALL OF OUR CWA TUE AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. HIGH PRESS
BUILDS IN ON WED BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON THU INCREASING
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE COLD
FRONT IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW
80S TO THE UPR 90S NEAR THE METRO AREA AND LOW 80S TO OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
THRU THE TAF PERIOD. PSBL FOG AT KCHO/KMRB...REDUCING VIS 2-4
MILES. ANY FOG THAT FORMS WILL DISSIPATE 13-15Z.

DRY CONDITIONS FRI MORNING...WITH SCT TSTMS BY THE AFTN...ESP
KCHO/KMRB. TIMING AND LOCATION OF AFTN CONVECTION TOO LOW IN
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM. ANY TSTM COULD BRING SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WITH HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS.

LIGHT/VRB WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME ELY BY FRI AFTN. THE ELY FLOW
WILL AIDE IN LOWERING CIGS FOR FRI NIGHT.

ONSHORE FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. MVFR CIGS LIFT SATURDAY WITH VFR THEN THROUGH SUNDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN NIGHT AND MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT THRU FRI MORNING. AN EASTERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FRI AFTN. WINDS
WILL INCREASE WITH A PRESSURE SURGE FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS
DURING THIS TIME. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ONSHORE FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. SCA FOR MOST WATERS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO THE
EVENING...THEN SOME CHANCES AGAIN SUNDAY WITH MOST WIND CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO BE AOB 15 KT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON. SOME SHOWERS
AND TSTMS PSBL OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW HAS WEAKENED OVER THE WATERS AND THIS
HAS ALLOWED FOR ANOMALIES TO INCREASE. THE FLOW WILL TURN TO THE
EAST FRIDAY BUT IT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP WATER LEVELS
BELOW FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE NEAR TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL/SEARS
SHORT TERM...BAJ/BJL
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...BAJ/BJL/SEARS/IMR
MARINE...BAJ/BJL/SEARS/IMR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KLWX 040052
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
852 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD DURING THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAKENING TSTMS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS OF 0030Z. SBCAPE VALUES
DCRSNG WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THOUGH MUCAPE STILL WELL
ABV 2K J/KG. WEAK SFC TROUGH HAS NUDGED EAST OF THE AREA...SO NO
REAL SFC MECHANISM TO TRIGGER ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AT LEAST
OVER WESTERN AREAS. WEAK VORT MAX OVER EASTERN PA COULD DIP OVER
EASTERN MD OVERNIGHT...WITH PSBL SHOWERS FORMING. ANY PCPN THAT
DOES FORM WILL TAPER OFF LATE...WITH DRY CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK.
INCREASED LOW LVL MOISTURE ESP OVER THE VALLEYS OF SHENANDOAH AND
LIGHT WINDS COULD LEAD TO PATCHY FOG.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY AND THIS WILL
SEND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA. AN EASTERLY WIND WILL
DEVELOP AND IT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT AS TODAY...BUT STILL
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN AROUND WITH THE
MAIN DEWPOINT AND TEMPERATURE GRADIENT REMAINING OFF TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST DURING THE DAY. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ALONG WITH THE
BOUNDARY WILL CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE BACKDOOR BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE ALLEGHENY AND
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA FRIDAY NIGHT. CONVECTION
SHOULD DISSIPATE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE NEAR THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE ALLEGHENY AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TOWARD CENTRAL VIRGINIA. THE
EASTERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP DUE TO
MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. DRIER AIR MAY EVENTUALLY SNEAK
INTO NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND TOWARD MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUDS WILL GREATLY LIMIT TEMPERATURES WITH MOST
AREAS SATURDAY BELOW NORMAL. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY LOOK TO BE UPR
70S/LOW 80S. THIS IS PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS WEST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE
WERE UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW BRINGS SOME CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN TO SRN
MD SUNDAY...OTW DRY. GREATER SUNSHINE SUNDAY SHOULD BRING MAX TEMPS
UP TO THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESS DOMINATES CONDITIONS FOR SUN NIGHT AND MON BRINGING
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE LABOR DAY WKND. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING A WEAK LOW PRESS SYSTEM WILL DRIFT NORTH
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THAT WILL ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE ATLC
INTO OUR REGION MON INTO TUE. THIS COULD BRING SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TO OUR REGION... MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA ON MONDAY AND
OVER ALL OF OUR CWA TUE AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. HIGH PRESS
BUILDS IN ON WED BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON THU INCREASING
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE COLD
FRONT IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW
80S TO THE UPR 90S NEAR THE METRO AREA AND LOW 80S TO OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
THRU THE TAF PERIOD. PSBL FOG AT KCHO/KMRB...REDUCING VIS 2-4
MILES. ANY FOG THAT FORMS WILL DISSIPATE 13-15Z.

DRY CONDITIONS FRI MORNING...WITH SCT TSTMS BY THE AFTN...ESP
KCHO/KMRB. TIMING AND LOCATION OF AFTN CONVECTION TOO LOW IN
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM. ANY TSTM COULD BRING SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WITH HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS.

LIGHT/VRB WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME ELY BY FRI AFTN. THE ELY FLOW
WILL AIDE IN LOWERING CIGS FOR FRI NIGHT.

ONSHORE FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. MVFR CIGS LIFT SATURDAY WITH VFR THEN THROUGH SUNDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN NIGHT AND MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT THRU FRI MORNING. AN EASTERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FRI AFTN. WINDS
WILL INCREASE WITH A PRESSURE SURGE FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS
DURING THIS TIME. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ONSHORE FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. SCA FOR MOST WATERS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO THE
EVENING...THEN SOME CHANCES AGAIN SUNDAY WITH MOST WIND CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO BE AOB 15 KT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON. SOME SHOWERS
AND TSTMS PSBL OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW HAS WEAKENED OVER THE WATERS AND THIS
HAS ALLOWED FOR ANOMALIES TO INCREASE. THE FLOW WILL TURN TO THE
EAST FRIDAY BUT IT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP WATER LEVELS
BELOW FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE NEAR TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL/SEARS
SHORT TERM...BAJ/BJL
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...BAJ/BJL/SEARS/IMR
MARINE...BAJ/BJL/SEARS/IMR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 032332
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
732 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY,
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY. HOWEVER, IT WILL CONTINUE AFFECT THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY, THEN PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
AROUND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES WITH THIS ESTF UPDATE. UPDATED POPS A BLEND OF
CONTINUITY AND LATEST COSPA/HRRR. VERY DISTINCT SEA BREEZE FRONT
DETECTED ON KDIX WSR88D, JUST PASSED MILLVILLE AIRPORT, ENTERING
SOUTHERN GLOUCESTER AND CAMDEN COUNTIES, PASSED OUR 88D IN WHITING
AND IN WESTERN MONMOUTH AND MIDDLESEX. THE DROP IN TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FRONT IS MORE THAN COMPENSATED BY A RISE IN DEW POINTS.

A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHARPEN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL
PLAIN, NOT TOO FAR EAST OF I-95.

DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES FROM THIS MORNING`S UPDATE TO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING POP/WX GRIDS. WE ARE HIGHLIGHTING TWO SEPARATE
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS: 1)THE LOWER DELMARVA, WHERE
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS AND LOCALLY
HIGHER INSTABILITY ARE PRESENT AND 2) IN NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST
NJ WELL AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHERE THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION IS TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS. CONVECTION IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES
WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON (AFTER 4 PM) AND THIS
EVENING AS UPSTREAM ACTIVITY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL PA HAS A WEAK STORM
MOTION. THE BETTER LIFT ALONG THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA UNTIL LATE TONIGHT, LIMITED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.

THE COLD FRONT BOUNDARY WILL START TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PRECIP WITH IT OVERNIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES BEFOREHAND. DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THIS
EVENING`S CONVECTION WILL IMPACT NE PA AND NW NJ. ELSEWHERE, EXPECT
CLOUDS WILL BE MUCH MORE SCATTERED AND THE WINDS WILL RELAX THIS
EVENING, ALLOWING THE SURFACE TO RADIATE MORE EFFECTIVELY.
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND WILL MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD
DURING THE EARLY MORNING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
THE EXTENT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHWESTWARD THRU
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A LAG BETWEEN THE FROPA AND
ARRIVAL OF THE COOLER AIR. THE FORMER WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON,
WHEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC NOSES SOUTHWARD DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS PRESSURE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BREEZY
E TO NE WINDS THAT WILL ADVECT COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA. THEREFORE,
THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
RANGING FROM THE 70S ALONG THE COAST AND IN NORTHERN NJ TO NEAR 90F
IN EASTERN MD. ANOTHER REASON FOR THE LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS
THE CLOUD COVER, WHICH WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS NJ AND NORTHEAST PA
THAN FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

WITH MORE STABLE MARINE AIR ADVECTING INLAND DURING THE DAY, THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE INLAND (OUT TOWARD
READING AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY) AND DURING THE
PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE AFTERNOON. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED IN THESE FAR WESTERN ZONES AND MORE
ISOLATED CLOSER TO THE DELAWARE VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING, ANY
REMAINING SHOWERS WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA OR DISSIPATE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST FROM THE NORTH
FROM SATURDAY, BEFORE IT MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY, WHICH WILL PROVIDE
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE
INDICATING THERE MAY BE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. ALL INDICATIONS ARE ANY PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE LIGHT.

ONE THING OF NOTE IS MODELS ARE INDICATING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THEY MOVE THIS LOW NORTHWARD, WHILE
WEAKENING IT, BUT KEEP IT OFFSHORE AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY TUESDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE IT GETS,
THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN A COLD FRONT, WHICH IS NOW FORECAST TO
BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY, BUT IT LOOKS MORE LIKELY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES COOL OFF SLIGHTLY SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A WARMING
TREND SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

00Z TAFS SOME MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND THEN PRIMARILY VFR ON
FRIDAY.

THIS EVENING...CONVECTION EXPECTED TO MISS THE TERMINALS. VFR
DEBRIS CLOUDS AROUND. AT KACY AND KMIV, VSBYS ARE ALREADY
BORDERLINE MVFR AND WE STARTED SOME EVENING MVFR RESTRICTIONS
THERE. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT

OVERNIGHT...A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL START SAGGING SOUTH INTO OUR
AREA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD BECOME NORTHEAST TOWARD
DAYBREAK WITH A VFR CIG MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE IS A
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND RELATIVELY CLEARER
SKIES WHEN SOME FOG COULD FORM, ESPECIALLY AT MORE RURAL AIRPORTS
AND TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE AND WE HAVE SOME MVFR
RESTRICTIONS, EVEN IFR AT KMIV (BECAUSE OF THEIR MURKY START THIS
EVENING).

FRIDAY...BEHIND THE FRONT NORTHEAST VEERING TO THE EAST WINDS
SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 10 KNOTS. A STRATOCU DECK LEVEL VFR CIG IS
PREDICTED TO PREVAIL. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALOFT FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO OCCUR AT WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN TERMINALS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO KNOW WHETHER
THEY WILL BE SPECIFICALLY IMPACTED. CHANCES DECREASES AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES ALL TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY E-NE WINDS AROUND 15-
20 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE AROUND
DAYBREAK EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HAZARDS ON THE MARINE ANTICIPATED THRU FRIDAY MORNING. NELY
WINDS WILL INCREASE THOUGH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND SCA
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER THAT AFTERNOON IN OUR
NORTHERN ZONES WITH 15- 20 KT WINDS (GUSTS TO 25 KT) AND SEAS OF
4-5 ARE FORECAST TO ARRIVE.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...SEAS REMAIN ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS WITH THE EASTERLY FETCH BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WINDS REMAIN ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AS WELL FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

SUNDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...SEAS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BACK BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS THEN EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE THREAT FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL BE ENHANCED FRIDAY AND
THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY WEEKEND. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SURGE BEHIND
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OF 10 TO 15 KT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY MORNING
AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT FRIDAY AFTERNOON THRU SATURDAY. WAVES
WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE TO THIS WIND SURGE, FORECASTED TO INCREASE
TO 4-7 FT BY LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY. THE WINDS AND WAVES ALONG THE
COAST SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SUBJECT
TO CHANGE SEVERAL DAYS OUT, BUT IN-HOUSE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A
MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FRIDAY AND MODERATE TO POSSIBLY NEAR
HIGH FOR SATURDAY. THE RISK SHOULD SUBSIDE A BIT BY SUNDAY BUT IT
MAY STILL BE MODERATE.

IT IS PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT FOR SAFETY AWARENESS TO SHARE THIS
INFORMATION TO BEACHGOERS AND LIFEGUARDS WITH THE BEACH CROWD
ANTICIPATED TO BE LARGER THAN NORMAL GIVEN IT`S LABOR DAY WEEKEND
AND THERE IS PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ALL OUR BIG FOUR CLIMATE SITES HAD THEIR HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR
SO FAR TODAY. PHILADELPHIA AND WILMINGTON AT 96, ATLANTIC CITY AT
95 (DAILY RECORD) AND ALLENTOWN AT 94.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ450-451.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...GIGI/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 032332
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
732 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY,
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY. HOWEVER, IT WILL CONTINUE AFFECT THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY, THEN PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
AROUND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES WITH THIS ESTF UPDATE. UPDATED POPS A BLEND OF
CONTINUITY AND LATEST COSPA/HRRR. VERY DISTINCT SEA BREEZE FRONT
DETECTED ON KDIX WSR88D, JUST PASSED MILLVILLE AIRPORT, ENTERING
SOUTHERN GLOUCESTER AND CAMDEN COUNTIES, PASSED OUR 88D IN WHITING
AND IN WESTERN MONMOUTH AND MIDDLESEX. THE DROP IN TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FRONT IS MORE THAN COMPENSATED BY A RISE IN DEW POINTS.

A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHARPEN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL
PLAIN, NOT TOO FAR EAST OF I-95.

DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES FROM THIS MORNING`S UPDATE TO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING POP/WX GRIDS. WE ARE HIGHLIGHTING TWO SEPARATE
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS: 1)THE LOWER DELMARVA, WHERE
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS AND LOCALLY
HIGHER INSTABILITY ARE PRESENT AND 2) IN NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST
NJ WELL AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHERE THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION IS TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS. CONVECTION IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES
WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON (AFTER 4 PM) AND THIS
EVENING AS UPSTREAM ACTIVITY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL PA HAS A WEAK STORM
MOTION. THE BETTER LIFT ALONG THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA UNTIL LATE TONIGHT, LIMITED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.

THE COLD FRONT BOUNDARY WILL START TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PRECIP WITH IT OVERNIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES BEFOREHAND. DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THIS
EVENING`S CONVECTION WILL IMPACT NE PA AND NW NJ. ELSEWHERE, EXPECT
CLOUDS WILL BE MUCH MORE SCATTERED AND THE WINDS WILL RELAX THIS
EVENING, ALLOWING THE SURFACE TO RADIATE MORE EFFECTIVELY.
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND WILL MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD
DURING THE EARLY MORNING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
THE EXTENT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHWESTWARD THRU
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A LAG BETWEEN THE FROPA AND
ARRIVAL OF THE COOLER AIR. THE FORMER WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON,
WHEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC NOSES SOUTHWARD DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS PRESSURE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BREEZY
E TO NE WINDS THAT WILL ADVECT COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA. THEREFORE,
THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
RANGING FROM THE 70S ALONG THE COAST AND IN NORTHERN NJ TO NEAR 90F
IN EASTERN MD. ANOTHER REASON FOR THE LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS
THE CLOUD COVER, WHICH WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS NJ AND NORTHEAST PA
THAN FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

WITH MORE STABLE MARINE AIR ADVECTING INLAND DURING THE DAY, THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE INLAND (OUT TOWARD
READING AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY) AND DURING THE
PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE AFTERNOON. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED IN THESE FAR WESTERN ZONES AND MORE
ISOLATED CLOSER TO THE DELAWARE VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING, ANY
REMAINING SHOWERS WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA OR DISSIPATE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST FROM THE NORTH
FROM SATURDAY, BEFORE IT MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY, WHICH WILL PROVIDE
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE
INDICATING THERE MAY BE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. ALL INDICATIONS ARE ANY PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE LIGHT.

ONE THING OF NOTE IS MODELS ARE INDICATING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THEY MOVE THIS LOW NORTHWARD, WHILE
WEAKENING IT, BUT KEEP IT OFFSHORE AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY TUESDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE IT GETS,
THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN A COLD FRONT, WHICH IS NOW FORECAST TO
BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY, BUT IT LOOKS MORE LIKELY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES COOL OFF SLIGHTLY SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A WARMING
TREND SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

00Z TAFS SOME MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND THEN PRIMARILY VFR ON
FRIDAY.

THIS EVENING...CONVECTION EXPECTED TO MISS THE TERMINALS. VFR
DEBRIS CLOUDS AROUND. AT KACY AND KMIV, VSBYS ARE ALREADY
BORDERLINE MVFR AND WE STARTED SOME EVENING MVFR RESTRICTIONS
THERE. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT

OVERNIGHT...A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL START SAGGING SOUTH INTO OUR
AREA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD BECOME NORTHEAST TOWARD
DAYBREAK WITH A VFR CIG MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE IS A
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND RELATIVELY CLEARER
SKIES WHEN SOME FOG COULD FORM, ESPECIALLY AT MORE RURAL AIRPORTS
AND TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE AND WE HAVE SOME MVFR
RESTRICTIONS, EVEN IFR AT KMIV (BECAUSE OF THEIR MURKY START THIS
EVENING).

FRIDAY...BEHIND THE FRONT NORTHEAST VEERING TO THE EAST WINDS
SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 10 KNOTS. A STRATOCU DECK LEVEL VFR CIG IS
PREDICTED TO PREVAIL. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALOFT FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO OCCUR AT WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN TERMINALS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO KNOW WHETHER
THEY WILL BE SPECIFICALLY IMPACTED. CHANCES DECREASES AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES ALL TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY E-NE WINDS AROUND 15-
20 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE AROUND
DAYBREAK EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HAZARDS ON THE MARINE ANTICIPATED THRU FRIDAY MORNING. NELY
WINDS WILL INCREASE THOUGH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND SCA
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER THAT AFTERNOON IN OUR
NORTHERN ZONES WITH 15- 20 KT WINDS (GUSTS TO 25 KT) AND SEAS OF
4-5 ARE FORECAST TO ARRIVE.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...SEAS REMAIN ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS WITH THE EASTERLY FETCH BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WINDS REMAIN ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AS WELL FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

SUNDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...SEAS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BACK BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS THEN EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE THREAT FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL BE ENHANCED FRIDAY AND
THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY WEEKEND. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SURGE BEHIND
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OF 10 TO 15 KT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY MORNING
AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT FRIDAY AFTERNOON THRU SATURDAY. WAVES
WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE TO THIS WIND SURGE, FORECASTED TO INCREASE
TO 4-7 FT BY LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY. THE WINDS AND WAVES ALONG THE
COAST SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SUBJECT
TO CHANGE SEVERAL DAYS OUT, BUT IN-HOUSE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A
MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FRIDAY AND MODERATE TO POSSIBLY NEAR
HIGH FOR SATURDAY. THE RISK SHOULD SUBSIDE A BIT BY SUNDAY BUT IT
MAY STILL BE MODERATE.

IT IS PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT FOR SAFETY AWARENESS TO SHARE THIS
INFORMATION TO BEACHGOERS AND LIFEGUARDS WITH THE BEACH CROWD
ANTICIPATED TO BE LARGER THAN NORMAL GIVEN IT`S LABOR DAY WEEKEND
AND THERE IS PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ALL OUR BIG FOUR CLIMATE SITES HAD THEIR HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR
SO FAR TODAY. PHILADELPHIA AND WILMINGTON AT 96, ATLANTIC CITY AT
95 (DAILY RECORD) AND ALLENTOWN AT 94.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ450-451.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...GIGI/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 032332
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
732 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY,
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY. HOWEVER, IT WILL CONTINUE AFFECT THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY, THEN PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
AROUND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES WITH THIS ESTF UPDATE. UPDATED POPS A BLEND OF
CONTINUITY AND LATEST COSPA/HRRR. VERY DISTINCT SEA BREEZE FRONT
DETECTED ON KDIX WSR88D, JUST PASSED MILLVILLE AIRPORT, ENTERING
SOUTHERN GLOUCESTER AND CAMDEN COUNTIES, PASSED OUR 88D IN WHITING
AND IN WESTERN MONMOUTH AND MIDDLESEX. THE DROP IN TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FRONT IS MORE THAN COMPENSATED BY A RISE IN DEW POINTS.

A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHARPEN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL
PLAIN, NOT TOO FAR EAST OF I-95.

DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES FROM THIS MORNING`S UPDATE TO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING POP/WX GRIDS. WE ARE HIGHLIGHTING TWO SEPARATE
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS: 1)THE LOWER DELMARVA, WHERE
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS AND LOCALLY
HIGHER INSTABILITY ARE PRESENT AND 2) IN NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST
NJ WELL AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHERE THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION IS TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS. CONVECTION IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES
WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON (AFTER 4 PM) AND THIS
EVENING AS UPSTREAM ACTIVITY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL PA HAS A WEAK STORM
MOTION. THE BETTER LIFT ALONG THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA UNTIL LATE TONIGHT, LIMITED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.

THE COLD FRONT BOUNDARY WILL START TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PRECIP WITH IT OVERNIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES BEFOREHAND. DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THIS
EVENING`S CONVECTION WILL IMPACT NE PA AND NW NJ. ELSEWHERE, EXPECT
CLOUDS WILL BE MUCH MORE SCATTERED AND THE WINDS WILL RELAX THIS
EVENING, ALLOWING THE SURFACE TO RADIATE MORE EFFECTIVELY.
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND WILL MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD
DURING THE EARLY MORNING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
THE EXTENT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHWESTWARD THRU
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A LAG BETWEEN THE FROPA AND
ARRIVAL OF THE COOLER AIR. THE FORMER WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON,
WHEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC NOSES SOUTHWARD DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS PRESSURE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BREEZY
E TO NE WINDS THAT WILL ADVECT COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA. THEREFORE,
THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
RANGING FROM THE 70S ALONG THE COAST AND IN NORTHERN NJ TO NEAR 90F
IN EASTERN MD. ANOTHER REASON FOR THE LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS
THE CLOUD COVER, WHICH WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS NJ AND NORTHEAST PA
THAN FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

WITH MORE STABLE MARINE AIR ADVECTING INLAND DURING THE DAY, THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE INLAND (OUT TOWARD
READING AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY) AND DURING THE
PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE AFTERNOON. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED IN THESE FAR WESTERN ZONES AND MORE
ISOLATED CLOSER TO THE DELAWARE VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING, ANY
REMAINING SHOWERS WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA OR DISSIPATE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST FROM THE NORTH
FROM SATURDAY, BEFORE IT MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY, WHICH WILL PROVIDE
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE
INDICATING THERE MAY BE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. ALL INDICATIONS ARE ANY PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE LIGHT.

ONE THING OF NOTE IS MODELS ARE INDICATING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THEY MOVE THIS LOW NORTHWARD, WHILE
WEAKENING IT, BUT KEEP IT OFFSHORE AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY TUESDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE IT GETS,
THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN A COLD FRONT, WHICH IS NOW FORECAST TO
BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY, BUT IT LOOKS MORE LIKELY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES COOL OFF SLIGHTLY SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A WARMING
TREND SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

00Z TAFS SOME MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND THEN PRIMARILY VFR ON
FRIDAY.

THIS EVENING...CONVECTION EXPECTED TO MISS THE TERMINALS. VFR
DEBRIS CLOUDS AROUND. AT KACY AND KMIV, VSBYS ARE ALREADY
BORDERLINE MVFR AND WE STARTED SOME EVENING MVFR RESTRICTIONS
THERE. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT

OVERNIGHT...A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL START SAGGING SOUTH INTO OUR
AREA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD BECOME NORTHEAST TOWARD
DAYBREAK WITH A VFR CIG MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE IS A
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND RELATIVELY CLEARER
SKIES WHEN SOME FOG COULD FORM, ESPECIALLY AT MORE RURAL AIRPORTS
AND TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE AND WE HAVE SOME MVFR
RESTRICTIONS, EVEN IFR AT KMIV (BECAUSE OF THEIR MURKY START THIS
EVENING).

FRIDAY...BEHIND THE FRONT NORTHEAST VEERING TO THE EAST WINDS
SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 10 KNOTS. A STRATOCU DECK LEVEL VFR CIG IS
PREDICTED TO PREVAIL. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALOFT FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO OCCUR AT WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN TERMINALS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO KNOW WHETHER
THEY WILL BE SPECIFICALLY IMPACTED. CHANCES DECREASES AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES ALL TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY E-NE WINDS AROUND 15-
20 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE AROUND
DAYBREAK EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HAZARDS ON THE MARINE ANTICIPATED THRU FRIDAY MORNING. NELY
WINDS WILL INCREASE THOUGH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND SCA
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER THAT AFTERNOON IN OUR
NORTHERN ZONES WITH 15- 20 KT WINDS (GUSTS TO 25 KT) AND SEAS OF
4-5 ARE FORECAST TO ARRIVE.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...SEAS REMAIN ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS WITH THE EASTERLY FETCH BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WINDS REMAIN ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AS WELL FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

SUNDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...SEAS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BACK BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS THEN EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE THREAT FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL BE ENHANCED FRIDAY AND
THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY WEEKEND. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SURGE BEHIND
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OF 10 TO 15 KT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY MORNING
AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT FRIDAY AFTERNOON THRU SATURDAY. WAVES
WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE TO THIS WIND SURGE, FORECASTED TO INCREASE
TO 4-7 FT BY LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY. THE WINDS AND WAVES ALONG THE
COAST SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SUBJECT
TO CHANGE SEVERAL DAYS OUT, BUT IN-HOUSE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A
MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FRIDAY AND MODERATE TO POSSIBLY NEAR
HIGH FOR SATURDAY. THE RISK SHOULD SUBSIDE A BIT BY SUNDAY BUT IT
MAY STILL BE MODERATE.

IT IS PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT FOR SAFETY AWARENESS TO SHARE THIS
INFORMATION TO BEACHGOERS AND LIFEGUARDS WITH THE BEACH CROWD
ANTICIPATED TO BE LARGER THAN NORMAL GIVEN IT`S LABOR DAY WEEKEND
AND THERE IS PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ALL OUR BIG FOUR CLIMATE SITES HAD THEIR HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR
SO FAR TODAY. PHILADELPHIA AND WILMINGTON AT 96, ATLANTIC CITY AT
95 (DAILY RECORD) AND ALLENTOWN AT 94.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ450-451.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...GIGI/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 032332
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
732 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY,
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY. HOWEVER, IT WILL CONTINUE AFFECT THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY, THEN PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
AROUND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES WITH THIS ESTF UPDATE. UPDATED POPS A BLEND OF
CONTINUITY AND LATEST COSPA/HRRR. VERY DISTINCT SEA BREEZE FRONT
DETECTED ON KDIX WSR88D, JUST PASSED MILLVILLE AIRPORT, ENTERING
SOUTHERN GLOUCESTER AND CAMDEN COUNTIES, PASSED OUR 88D IN WHITING
AND IN WESTERN MONMOUTH AND MIDDLESEX. THE DROP IN TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FRONT IS MORE THAN COMPENSATED BY A RISE IN DEW POINTS.

A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHARPEN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL
PLAIN, NOT TOO FAR EAST OF I-95.

DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES FROM THIS MORNING`S UPDATE TO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING POP/WX GRIDS. WE ARE HIGHLIGHTING TWO SEPARATE
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS: 1)THE LOWER DELMARVA, WHERE
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS AND LOCALLY
HIGHER INSTABILITY ARE PRESENT AND 2) IN NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST
NJ WELL AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHERE THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION IS TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS. CONVECTION IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES
WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON (AFTER 4 PM) AND THIS
EVENING AS UPSTREAM ACTIVITY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL PA HAS A WEAK STORM
MOTION. THE BETTER LIFT ALONG THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA UNTIL LATE TONIGHT, LIMITED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.

THE COLD FRONT BOUNDARY WILL START TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PRECIP WITH IT OVERNIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES BEFOREHAND. DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THIS
EVENING`S CONVECTION WILL IMPACT NE PA AND NW NJ. ELSEWHERE, EXPECT
CLOUDS WILL BE MUCH MORE SCATTERED AND THE WINDS WILL RELAX THIS
EVENING, ALLOWING THE SURFACE TO RADIATE MORE EFFECTIVELY.
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND WILL MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD
DURING THE EARLY MORNING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
THE EXTENT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHWESTWARD THRU
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A LAG BETWEEN THE FROPA AND
ARRIVAL OF THE COOLER AIR. THE FORMER WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON,
WHEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC NOSES SOUTHWARD DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS PRESSURE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BREEZY
E TO NE WINDS THAT WILL ADVECT COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA. THEREFORE,
THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
RANGING FROM THE 70S ALONG THE COAST AND IN NORTHERN NJ TO NEAR 90F
IN EASTERN MD. ANOTHER REASON FOR THE LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS
THE CLOUD COVER, WHICH WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS NJ AND NORTHEAST PA
THAN FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

WITH MORE STABLE MARINE AIR ADVECTING INLAND DURING THE DAY, THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE INLAND (OUT TOWARD
READING AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY) AND DURING THE
PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE AFTERNOON. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED IN THESE FAR WESTERN ZONES AND MORE
ISOLATED CLOSER TO THE DELAWARE VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING, ANY
REMAINING SHOWERS WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA OR DISSIPATE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST FROM THE NORTH
FROM SATURDAY, BEFORE IT MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY, WHICH WILL PROVIDE
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE
INDICATING THERE MAY BE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. ALL INDICATIONS ARE ANY PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE LIGHT.

ONE THING OF NOTE IS MODELS ARE INDICATING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THEY MOVE THIS LOW NORTHWARD, WHILE
WEAKENING IT, BUT KEEP IT OFFSHORE AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY TUESDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE IT GETS,
THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN A COLD FRONT, WHICH IS NOW FORECAST TO
BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY, BUT IT LOOKS MORE LIKELY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES COOL OFF SLIGHTLY SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A WARMING
TREND SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

00Z TAFS SOME MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND THEN PRIMARILY VFR ON
FRIDAY.

THIS EVENING...CONVECTION EXPECTED TO MISS THE TERMINALS. VFR
DEBRIS CLOUDS AROUND. AT KACY AND KMIV, VSBYS ARE ALREADY
BORDERLINE MVFR AND WE STARTED SOME EVENING MVFR RESTRICTIONS
THERE. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT

OVERNIGHT...A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL START SAGGING SOUTH INTO OUR
AREA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD BECOME NORTHEAST TOWARD
DAYBREAK WITH A VFR CIG MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE IS A
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND RELATIVELY CLEARER
SKIES WHEN SOME FOG COULD FORM, ESPECIALLY AT MORE RURAL AIRPORTS
AND TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE AND WE HAVE SOME MVFR
RESTRICTIONS, EVEN IFR AT KMIV (BECAUSE OF THEIR MURKY START THIS
EVENING).

FRIDAY...BEHIND THE FRONT NORTHEAST VEERING TO THE EAST WINDS
SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 10 KNOTS. A STRATOCU DECK LEVEL VFR CIG IS
PREDICTED TO PREVAIL. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALOFT FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO OCCUR AT WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN TERMINALS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO KNOW WHETHER
THEY WILL BE SPECIFICALLY IMPACTED. CHANCES DECREASES AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES ALL TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY E-NE WINDS AROUND 15-
20 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE AROUND
DAYBREAK EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HAZARDS ON THE MARINE ANTICIPATED THRU FRIDAY MORNING. NELY
WINDS WILL INCREASE THOUGH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND SCA
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER THAT AFTERNOON IN OUR
NORTHERN ZONES WITH 15- 20 KT WINDS (GUSTS TO 25 KT) AND SEAS OF
4-5 ARE FORECAST TO ARRIVE.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...SEAS REMAIN ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS WITH THE EASTERLY FETCH BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WINDS REMAIN ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AS WELL FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

SUNDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...SEAS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BACK BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS THEN EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE THREAT FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL BE ENHANCED FRIDAY AND
THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY WEEKEND. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SURGE BEHIND
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OF 10 TO 15 KT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY MORNING
AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT FRIDAY AFTERNOON THRU SATURDAY. WAVES
WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE TO THIS WIND SURGE, FORECASTED TO INCREASE
TO 4-7 FT BY LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY. THE WINDS AND WAVES ALONG THE
COAST SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SUBJECT
TO CHANGE SEVERAL DAYS OUT, BUT IN-HOUSE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A
MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FRIDAY AND MODERATE TO POSSIBLY NEAR
HIGH FOR SATURDAY. THE RISK SHOULD SUBSIDE A BIT BY SUNDAY BUT IT
MAY STILL BE MODERATE.

IT IS PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT FOR SAFETY AWARENESS TO SHARE THIS
INFORMATION TO BEACHGOERS AND LIFEGUARDS WITH THE BEACH CROWD
ANTICIPATED TO BE LARGER THAN NORMAL GIVEN IT`S LABOR DAY WEEKEND
AND THERE IS PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ALL OUR BIG FOUR CLIMATE SITES HAD THEIR HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR
SO FAR TODAY. PHILADELPHIA AND WILMINGTON AT 96, ATLANTIC CITY AT
95 (DAILY RECORD) AND ALLENTOWN AT 94.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ450-451.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...GIGI/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 032205
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
605 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY,
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY. HOWEVER, IT WILL CONTINUE AFFECT THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY, THEN PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
AROUND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES WITH THIS ESTF UPDATE. UPDATED POPS A BLEND OF
CONTINUITY AND LATEST COSPA/HRRR. VERY DISTINCT SEA BREEZE FRONT
DETECTED ON KDIX WSR88D, JUST PASSED MILLVILLE AIRPORT, ENTERING
SOUTHERN GLOUCESTER AND CAMDEN COUNTIES, PASSED OUR 88D IN WHITING
AND IN WESTERN MONMOUTH AND MIDDLESEX. THE DROP IN TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FRONT IS MORE THAN COMPENSATED BY A RISE IN DEW POINTS.

A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHARPEN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL
PLAIN, NOT TOO FAR EAST OF I-95.

DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES FROM THIS MORNING`S UPDATE TO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING POP/WX GRIDS. WE ARE HIGHLIGHTING TWO SEPARATE
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS: 1)THE LOWER DELMARVA, WHERE
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS AND LOCALLY
HIGHER INSTABILITY ARE PRESENT AND 2) IN NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST
NJ WELL AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHERE THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION IS TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS. CONVECTION IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES
WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON (AFTER 4 PM) AND THIS
EVENING AS UPSTREAM ACTIVITY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL PA HAS A WEAK STORM
MOTION. THE BETTER LIFT ALONG THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA UNTIL LATE TONIGHT, LIMITED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.

THE COLD FRONT BOUNDARY WILL START TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PRECIP WITH IT OVERNIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES BEFOREHAND. DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THIS
EVENING`S CONVECTION WILL IMPACT NE PA AND NW NJ. ELSEWHERE, EXPECT
CLOUDS WILL BE MUCH MORE SCATTERED AND THE WINDS WILL RELAX THIS
EVENING, ALLOWING THE SURFACE TO RADIATE MORE EFFECTIVELY.
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND WILL MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD
DURING THE EARLY MORNING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
THE EXTENT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHWESTWARD THRU
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A LAG BETWEEN THE FROPA AND
ARRIVAL OF THE COOLER AIR. THE FORMER WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON,
WHEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC NOSES SOUTHWARD DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS PRESSURE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BREEZY
E TO NE WINDS THAT WILL ADVECT COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA. THEREFORE,
THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
RANGING FROM THE 70S ALONG THE COAST AND IN NORTHERN NJ TO NEAR 90F
IN EASTERN MD. ANOTHER REASON FOR THE LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS
THE CLOUD COVER, WHICH WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS NJ AND NORTHEAST PA
THAN FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

WITH MORE STABLE MARINE AIR ADVECTING INLAND DURING THE DAY, THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE INLAND (OUT TOWARD
READING AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY) AND DURING THE
PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE AFTERNOON. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED IN THESE FAR WESTERN ZONES AND MORE
ISOLATED CLOSER TO THE DELAWARE VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING, ANY
REMAINING SHOWERS WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA OR DISSIPATE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST FROM THE NORTH
FROM SATURDAY, BEFORE IT MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY, WHICH WILL PROVIDE
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE
INDICATING THERE MAY BE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. ALL INDICATIONS ARE ANY PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE LIGHT.

ONE THING OF NOTE IS MODELS ARE INDICATING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THEY MOVE THIS LOW NORTHWARD, WHILE
WEAKENING IT, BUT KEEP IT OFFSHORE AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY TUESDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE IT GETS,
THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN A COLD FRONT, WHICH IS NOW FORECAST TO
BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY, BUT IT LOOKS MORE LIKELY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES COOL OFF SLIGHTLY SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A WARMING
TREND SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD APPROACH ABE AND RDG BETWEEN 20-
01Z. DID NOT INCLUDE THIS IN THE TAFS DUE TO SUCH LOW CHANCES.
OTHERWISE, VFR THRU 06Z. NLY WINDS 5-10 KT THIS AFTN. THE EXCEPTION
IS ACY, WHERE WINDS ARE SELY IN WAKE OF A SEA-BREEZE FRONT. THE SEA
BREEZE WILL LIKELY MAKE IT TO MIV LATE THIS AFTN AND THEN PERHAPS
THE I-95 TERMINALS TOWARD 00Z. A BRIEF WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE SE
WOULD OCCUR.

PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BUT A LIGHT NELY WIND
AND CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE EXTENT OF IT. ONLY HAVE MVFR
RESTRICTIONS AT MIV FOR NOW.

NELY WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BEHIND A FRONT TO AROUND
10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY E-NE WINDS AROUND 15-
20 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE AROUND
DAYBREAK EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HAZARDS ON THE MARINE ANTICIPATED THRU FRIDAY MORNING. NELY
WINDS WILL INCREASE THOUGH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND SCA
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER THAT AFTERNOON IN OUR
NORTHERN ZONES WITH 15- 20 KT WINDS (GUSTS TO 25 KT) AND SEAS OF
4-5 ARE FORECAST TO ARRIVE.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...SEAS REMAIN ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS WITH THE EASTERLY FETCH BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WINDS REMAIN ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AS WELL FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

SUNDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...SEAS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BACK BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS THEN EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE THREAT FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL BE ENHANCED FRIDAY AND
THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY WEEKEND. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SURGE BEHIND
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OF 10 TO 15 KT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY MORNING
AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT FRIDAY AFTERNOON THRU SATURDAY. WAVES
WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE TO THIS WIND SURGE, FORECASTED TO INCREASE
TO 4-7 FT BY LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY. THE WINDS AND WAVES ALONG THE
COAST SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SUBJECT
TO CHANGE SEVERAL DAYS OUT, BUT IN-HOUSE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A
MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FRIDAY AND MODERATE TO POSSIBLY NEAR
HIGH FOR SATURDAY. THE RISK SHOULD SUBSIDE A BIT BY SUNDAY BUT IT
MAY STILL BE MODERATE.

IT IS PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT FOR SAFETY AWARENESS TO SHARE THIS
INFORMATION TO BEACHGOERS AND LIFEGUARDS WITH THE BEACH CROWD
ANTICIPATED TO BE LARGER THAN NORMAL GIVEN IT`S LABOR DAY WEEKEND
AND THERE IS PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ALL OUR BIG FOUR CLIMATE SITES HAD THEIR HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR
SO FAR TODAY. PHILADELPHIA AND WILMINGTON AT 96, ATLANTIC CITY AT
95 (DAILY RECORD) AND ALLENTOWN AT 94.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ450-451.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 032205
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
605 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY,
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY. HOWEVER, IT WILL CONTINUE AFFECT THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY, THEN PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
AROUND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES WITH THIS ESTF UPDATE. UPDATED POPS A BLEND OF
CONTINUITY AND LATEST COSPA/HRRR. VERY DISTINCT SEA BREEZE FRONT
DETECTED ON KDIX WSR88D, JUST PASSED MILLVILLE AIRPORT, ENTERING
SOUTHERN GLOUCESTER AND CAMDEN COUNTIES, PASSED OUR 88D IN WHITING
AND IN WESTERN MONMOUTH AND MIDDLESEX. THE DROP IN TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FRONT IS MORE THAN COMPENSATED BY A RISE IN DEW POINTS.

A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHARPEN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL
PLAIN, NOT TOO FAR EAST OF I-95.

DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES FROM THIS MORNING`S UPDATE TO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING POP/WX GRIDS. WE ARE HIGHLIGHTING TWO SEPARATE
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS: 1)THE LOWER DELMARVA, WHERE
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS AND LOCALLY
HIGHER INSTABILITY ARE PRESENT AND 2) IN NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST
NJ WELL AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHERE THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION IS TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS. CONVECTION IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES
WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON (AFTER 4 PM) AND THIS
EVENING AS UPSTREAM ACTIVITY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL PA HAS A WEAK STORM
MOTION. THE BETTER LIFT ALONG THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA UNTIL LATE TONIGHT, LIMITED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.

THE COLD FRONT BOUNDARY WILL START TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PRECIP WITH IT OVERNIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES BEFOREHAND. DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THIS
EVENING`S CONVECTION WILL IMPACT NE PA AND NW NJ. ELSEWHERE, EXPECT
CLOUDS WILL BE MUCH MORE SCATTERED AND THE WINDS WILL RELAX THIS
EVENING, ALLOWING THE SURFACE TO RADIATE MORE EFFECTIVELY.
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND WILL MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD
DURING THE EARLY MORNING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
THE EXTENT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHWESTWARD THRU
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A LAG BETWEEN THE FROPA AND
ARRIVAL OF THE COOLER AIR. THE FORMER WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON,
WHEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC NOSES SOUTHWARD DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS PRESSURE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BREEZY
E TO NE WINDS THAT WILL ADVECT COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA. THEREFORE,
THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
RANGING FROM THE 70S ALONG THE COAST AND IN NORTHERN NJ TO NEAR 90F
IN EASTERN MD. ANOTHER REASON FOR THE LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS
THE CLOUD COVER, WHICH WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS NJ AND NORTHEAST PA
THAN FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

WITH MORE STABLE MARINE AIR ADVECTING INLAND DURING THE DAY, THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE INLAND (OUT TOWARD
READING AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY) AND DURING THE
PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE AFTERNOON. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED IN THESE FAR WESTERN ZONES AND MORE
ISOLATED CLOSER TO THE DELAWARE VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING, ANY
REMAINING SHOWERS WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA OR DISSIPATE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST FROM THE NORTH
FROM SATURDAY, BEFORE IT MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY, WHICH WILL PROVIDE
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE
INDICATING THERE MAY BE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. ALL INDICATIONS ARE ANY PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE LIGHT.

ONE THING OF NOTE IS MODELS ARE INDICATING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THEY MOVE THIS LOW NORTHWARD, WHILE
WEAKENING IT, BUT KEEP IT OFFSHORE AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY TUESDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE IT GETS,
THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN A COLD FRONT, WHICH IS NOW FORECAST TO
BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY, BUT IT LOOKS MORE LIKELY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES COOL OFF SLIGHTLY SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A WARMING
TREND SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD APPROACH ABE AND RDG BETWEEN 20-
01Z. DID NOT INCLUDE THIS IN THE TAFS DUE TO SUCH LOW CHANCES.
OTHERWISE, VFR THRU 06Z. NLY WINDS 5-10 KT THIS AFTN. THE EXCEPTION
IS ACY, WHERE WINDS ARE SELY IN WAKE OF A SEA-BREEZE FRONT. THE SEA
BREEZE WILL LIKELY MAKE IT TO MIV LATE THIS AFTN AND THEN PERHAPS
THE I-95 TERMINALS TOWARD 00Z. A BRIEF WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE SE
WOULD OCCUR.

PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BUT A LIGHT NELY WIND
AND CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE EXTENT OF IT. ONLY HAVE MVFR
RESTRICTIONS AT MIV FOR NOW.

NELY WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BEHIND A FRONT TO AROUND
10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY E-NE WINDS AROUND 15-
20 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE AROUND
DAYBREAK EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HAZARDS ON THE MARINE ANTICIPATED THRU FRIDAY MORNING. NELY
WINDS WILL INCREASE THOUGH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND SCA
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER THAT AFTERNOON IN OUR
NORTHERN ZONES WITH 15- 20 KT WINDS (GUSTS TO 25 KT) AND SEAS OF
4-5 ARE FORECAST TO ARRIVE.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...SEAS REMAIN ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS WITH THE EASTERLY FETCH BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WINDS REMAIN ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AS WELL FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

SUNDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...SEAS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BACK BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS THEN EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE THREAT FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL BE ENHANCED FRIDAY AND
THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY WEEKEND. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SURGE BEHIND
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OF 10 TO 15 KT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY MORNING
AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT FRIDAY AFTERNOON THRU SATURDAY. WAVES
WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE TO THIS WIND SURGE, FORECASTED TO INCREASE
TO 4-7 FT BY LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY. THE WINDS AND WAVES ALONG THE
COAST SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SUBJECT
TO CHANGE SEVERAL DAYS OUT, BUT IN-HOUSE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A
MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FRIDAY AND MODERATE TO POSSIBLY NEAR
HIGH FOR SATURDAY. THE RISK SHOULD SUBSIDE A BIT BY SUNDAY BUT IT
MAY STILL BE MODERATE.

IT IS PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT FOR SAFETY AWARENESS TO SHARE THIS
INFORMATION TO BEACHGOERS AND LIFEGUARDS WITH THE BEACH CROWD
ANTICIPATED TO BE LARGER THAN NORMAL GIVEN IT`S LABOR DAY WEEKEND
AND THERE IS PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ALL OUR BIG FOUR CLIMATE SITES HAD THEIR HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR
SO FAR TODAY. PHILADELPHIA AND WILMINGTON AT 96, ATLANTIC CITY AT
95 (DAILY RECORD) AND ALLENTOWN AT 94.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ450-451.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 032144
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
544 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH 545PM UPDATE...MADE MINIMAL CHANGES TO SKY COVER AND HOURLY
TEMPERATURES. REST OF FORECAST IS IN GOOD ORDER. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...WITH LIMITATIONS IMPOSED BY A WEAK
WIND FIELD AND WARM MID LEVELS INHIBITING EXPLOSIVE INSTABILITY.
CELLS WILL THUS DROP BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...AND POSSIBLY SOME GUSTY
WIND AS THEY PULSE.

OTHERWISE...ABOVE AVERAGE WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE.
EXPECT LOWS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMALS.

SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE DIURNALLY SUPPORTED CONVECTION IS AGAIN
EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE SUPPORT ANTICIPATED. NO CHANGE
TO WARM AIRMASS THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH IS PROJECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD
ACROSS PA UNDER A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE
AND WARMTH ALOFT WILL INHIBIT DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. RELIEF FROM THE
QUITE WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH COLD FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...AS WELL AS AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MARRED BY SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS
EVENING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR AS FOG DEVELOPS BY DAWN.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 032144
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
544 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH 545PM UPDATE...MADE MINIMAL CHANGES TO SKY COVER AND HOURLY
TEMPERATURES. REST OF FORECAST IS IN GOOD ORDER. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...WITH LIMITATIONS IMPOSED BY A WEAK
WIND FIELD AND WARM MID LEVELS INHIBITING EXPLOSIVE INSTABILITY.
CELLS WILL THUS DROP BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...AND POSSIBLY SOME GUSTY
WIND AS THEY PULSE.

OTHERWISE...ABOVE AVERAGE WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE.
EXPECT LOWS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMALS.

SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE DIURNALLY SUPPORTED CONVECTION IS AGAIN
EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE SUPPORT ANTICIPATED. NO CHANGE
TO WARM AIRMASS THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH IS PROJECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD
ACROSS PA UNDER A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE
AND WARMTH ALOFT WILL INHIBIT DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. RELIEF FROM THE
QUITE WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH COLD FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...AS WELL AS AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MARRED BY SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS
EVENING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR AS FOG DEVELOPS BY DAWN.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 032144
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
544 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH 545PM UPDATE...MADE MINIMAL CHANGES TO SKY COVER AND HOURLY
TEMPERATURES. REST OF FORECAST IS IN GOOD ORDER. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...WITH LIMITATIONS IMPOSED BY A WEAK
WIND FIELD AND WARM MID LEVELS INHIBITING EXPLOSIVE INSTABILITY.
CELLS WILL THUS DROP BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...AND POSSIBLY SOME GUSTY
WIND AS THEY PULSE.

OTHERWISE...ABOVE AVERAGE WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE.
EXPECT LOWS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMALS.

SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE DIURNALLY SUPPORTED CONVECTION IS AGAIN
EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE SUPPORT ANTICIPATED. NO CHANGE
TO WARM AIRMASS THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH IS PROJECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD
ACROSS PA UNDER A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE
AND WARMTH ALOFT WILL INHIBIT DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. RELIEF FROM THE
QUITE WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH COLD FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...AS WELL AS AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MARRED BY SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS
EVENING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR AS FOG DEVELOPS BY DAWN.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 032044
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
444 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST
STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ANOTHER SUMMERY AFTN W/ SCT CU AND HEAT INDICES RANGING THROUGH
THE 90S. MUCH LESS COVERAGE TO PCPN ATTM...AND TRENDS IN HI-RES
MDLS SUPPORTS IDEA OF LESS CONVECTION THIS EVE AS COMPARED TO WED
EVE. WILL CONT TO CARRY 20-30% FM THE BAY W THROUGH ABT
01-04Z/04...W/ ONLY AN ISOLD TSTM PSBL INVOF BAY/ERN SHORE AND OVR
THE OCN. PARTLY CLOUDY-SKC OVRNGT W/ TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
U60S-L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NE CONUS DURING THE SHORT
TERM. A WEAKNESS UNDER THE RIDGE LOCATES OVER THE MDATLC-SE
STATES...RESULTING IN WEAK FLOW ALOFT. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE
OVER ERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WILL ALLOW STRONG SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD SWD INTO NEW ENGLAND...PUSHING A BACKDOOR FRONT
INTO THE RGN FRI MRNG-AFTN. SFC WNDS TURN TO THE NE
FRI...RESULTING IN THE BEGINNINGS OF A COOL DOWN. A WARM/MOIST
AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS (SREF MLCAPE VALUES 1000-1500
J/KG) WILL REMAIN OVVR THE FA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. MORE STABLE
ALONG THE COAST DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW. HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT CHC TO
CHC POPS E AND CNTRL...BUT HAVE CONTD W/ SOLID CHANCE (40-50%) OVR
THE PIEDMONT AS WEAK S/W DROPS OVR THE RGN. VRB CLDS- PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDS W/ HI TEMPS FM THE M-U80S INVOF ERN SHORE/ALG THE CST
TO THE U80S-ARND 90F INLAND.

THE WX FM FRI NGT THROUGH SUN LOOKING MORE UNSETTLED THAN BEFORE.
PDS OF LO LVL CLDS XPCD INTO SUN W/ CONTD ENE WNDS. GUSTS UP TO
25 MPH NR THE CST LT FRI NGT. MDLS TDA ARE LESS EMPHATIC ABT DRIER
AIR MASS PUSHING SSW INTO/ACRS THE FA THIS WKND. COMBO HI PRES TO
THE NNE AND LO PRES OVR SE CONUS TO KEEP MOIST ONSHORE WNDS AND
LIKELIHOOD OF WK IMPULSES TRACKING ACRS THE FA FM THE E. WILL HAVE
20-40% POPS SAT-SUN...HIGHEST IN SE VA/NE NC. CONTD BREEZY (GUSTS
TO 25-30 MPH NR THE CST IN ERN VA/NE NC) ON SAT...LESS WND XPCD
SUN. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE M-U70S NR THE CST TO ARND 80F INLAND. LO
TEMPS SAT NGT FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F. HI TEMPS SUN FM THE U70S TO
L80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF SUN NGT AND MON WITH SFC LO PRES
SPINNING OFF THE CAROLINA CST WITH HI PRES N AND W OF THE FA.
RESULTANT ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO TEMPS ONLY MAKING IT INTO THE
MID 80S MON UNDER A PRTLY-MSTLY SKY. WITH THE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLGT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER MUCH OF THE FA
SUN NGT/MON. KEPT THUNDER OUT DUE TO A LACK OF INSTABILITY. THE
SFC LO WEAKENS AND STARTS SLIDING E TUE ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDS
AND TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID/UPR 80S UNDER A PRTLY CLOUDY
SKY. DRY WX CONTINUES MIDWEEK WITH TEMPS FURTHER INCREASING AS SLY
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRNT...WITH HI TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO NR 90 WED AND THUR. THE FRNT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SOMETIME LATE THU OR FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION MAY INITIATE
SOME ISLOATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING. MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED CONVECTION.
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY ALONG BACKDOOR
COLDFRONT PASSAGE.

DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THE
OCEAN/BAY/LWR JAMES. FOR TNGT...WEAK TROF OF LO PRES OVER THE WTRS
WILL LEAD TO VRB WINDS UNDER 10 KT. NE FLOW THEN DEVELOPS FRI AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRNT DROPS TWRDS THE REGION AND HI PRES OVERSPREADS
THE NE STATES. WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THRU THE DAY OVER ALL
WTRS...TO 15-20 KT OVER THE BAY/OCEAN BY THE EVENG HRS AND LWR
JAMES BY ERLY OVRNGT. AT THE SAME TIME...WAVES OVER THE LWR BAY
WILL INCREASE TO 4 FT WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS UP TO 6 FT. THE SCA
WILL RUN THRU THE END OF THE 4TH PERIOD FOR NOW (SAT AFTN) BUT
MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER OUT IN TIME ESPECIALLY OVER CSTL
WTRS WITH SEAS AOA 5 FT LIKELY CONTINUING INTO SAT NGT/SUN. IN
ADDITION...THE ONSHORE FLOW AND HI WAVES WILL ENHANCE THE RIP
CURRENT THREAT FOR THE HOLIDAY WKEND. GUID CONTS TO BUILD TIDES
TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NRML BY SAT...CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS
IN SOME LOCATIONS.

WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SFC HI
WEAKENS AND FLOW BCMS MORE OUT OF THE E THAN NE. WINDS THEN TURN
TO THE S MIDWEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRNT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR ANZ638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...MPR/DAP
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 032044
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
444 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST
STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ANOTHER SUMMERY AFTN W/ SCT CU AND HEAT INDICES RANGING THROUGH
THE 90S. MUCH LESS COVERAGE TO PCPN ATTM...AND TRENDS IN HI-RES
MDLS SUPPORTS IDEA OF LESS CONVECTION THIS EVE AS COMPARED TO WED
EVE. WILL CONT TO CARRY 20-30% FM THE BAY W THROUGH ABT
01-04Z/04...W/ ONLY AN ISOLD TSTM PSBL INVOF BAY/ERN SHORE AND OVR
THE OCN. PARTLY CLOUDY-SKC OVRNGT W/ TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
U60S-L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NE CONUS DURING THE SHORT
TERM. A WEAKNESS UNDER THE RIDGE LOCATES OVER THE MDATLC-SE
STATES...RESULTING IN WEAK FLOW ALOFT. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE
OVER ERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WILL ALLOW STRONG SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD SWD INTO NEW ENGLAND...PUSHING A BACKDOOR FRONT
INTO THE RGN FRI MRNG-AFTN. SFC WNDS TURN TO THE NE
FRI...RESULTING IN THE BEGINNINGS OF A COOL DOWN. A WARM/MOIST
AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS (SREF MLCAPE VALUES 1000-1500
J/KG) WILL REMAIN OVVR THE FA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. MORE STABLE
ALONG THE COAST DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW. HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT CHC TO
CHC POPS E AND CNTRL...BUT HAVE CONTD W/ SOLID CHANCE (40-50%) OVR
THE PIEDMONT AS WEAK S/W DROPS OVR THE RGN. VRB CLDS- PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDS W/ HI TEMPS FM THE M-U80S INVOF ERN SHORE/ALG THE CST
TO THE U80S-ARND 90F INLAND.

THE WX FM FRI NGT THROUGH SUN LOOKING MORE UNSETTLED THAN BEFORE.
PDS OF LO LVL CLDS XPCD INTO SUN W/ CONTD ENE WNDS. GUSTS UP TO
25 MPH NR THE CST LT FRI NGT. MDLS TDA ARE LESS EMPHATIC ABT DRIER
AIR MASS PUSHING SSW INTO/ACRS THE FA THIS WKND. COMBO HI PRES TO
THE NNE AND LO PRES OVR SE CONUS TO KEEP MOIST ONSHORE WNDS AND
LIKELIHOOD OF WK IMPULSES TRACKING ACRS THE FA FM THE E. WILL HAVE
20-40% POPS SAT-SUN...HIGHEST IN SE VA/NE NC. CONTD BREEZY (GUSTS
TO 25-30 MPH NR THE CST IN ERN VA/NE NC) ON SAT...LESS WND XPCD
SUN. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE M-U70S NR THE CST TO ARND 80F INLAND. LO
TEMPS SAT NGT FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F. HI TEMPS SUN FM THE U70S TO
L80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF SUN NGT AND MON WITH SFC LO PRES
SPINNING OFF THE CAROLINA CST WITH HI PRES N AND W OF THE FA.
RESULTANT ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO TEMPS ONLY MAKING IT INTO THE
MID 80S MON UNDER A PRTLY-MSTLY SKY. WITH THE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLGT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER MUCH OF THE FA
SUN NGT/MON. KEPT THUNDER OUT DUE TO A LACK OF INSTABILITY. THE
SFC LO WEAKENS AND STARTS SLIDING E TUE ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDS
AND TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID/UPR 80S UNDER A PRTLY CLOUDY
SKY. DRY WX CONTINUES MIDWEEK WITH TEMPS FURTHER INCREASING AS SLY
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRNT...WITH HI TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO NR 90 WED AND THUR. THE FRNT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SOMETIME LATE THU OR FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION MAY INITIATE
SOME ISLOATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING. MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED CONVECTION.
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY ALONG BACKDOOR
COLDFRONT PASSAGE.

DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THE
OCEAN/BAY/LWR JAMES. FOR TNGT...WEAK TROF OF LO PRES OVER THE WTRS
WILL LEAD TO VRB WINDS UNDER 10 KT. NE FLOW THEN DEVELOPS FRI AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRNT DROPS TWRDS THE REGION AND HI PRES OVERSPREADS
THE NE STATES. WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THRU THE DAY OVER ALL
WTRS...TO 15-20 KT OVER THE BAY/OCEAN BY THE EVENG HRS AND LWR
JAMES BY ERLY OVRNGT. AT THE SAME TIME...WAVES OVER THE LWR BAY
WILL INCREASE TO 4 FT WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS UP TO 6 FT. THE SCA
WILL RUN THRU THE END OF THE 4TH PERIOD FOR NOW (SAT AFTN) BUT
MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER OUT IN TIME ESPECIALLY OVER CSTL
WTRS WITH SEAS AOA 5 FT LIKELY CONTINUING INTO SAT NGT/SUN. IN
ADDITION...THE ONSHORE FLOW AND HI WAVES WILL ENHANCE THE RIP
CURRENT THREAT FOR THE HOLIDAY WKEND. GUID CONTS TO BUILD TIDES
TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NRML BY SAT...CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS
IN SOME LOCATIONS.

WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SFC HI
WEAKENS AND FLOW BCMS MORE OUT OF THE E THAN NE. WINDS THEN TURN
TO THE S MIDWEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRNT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR ANZ638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...MPR/DAP
MARINE...MAS



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031959
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
359 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST
STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ANOTHER SUMMERY AFTN W/ SCT CU AND HEAT INDICES RANGING THROUGH
THE 90S. MUCH LESS COVERAGE TO PCPN ATTM...AND TRENDS IN HI-RES
MDLS SUPPORTS IDEA OF LESS CONVECTION THIS EVE AS COMPARED TO WED
EVE. WILL CONT TO CARRY 20-30% FM THE BAY W THROUGH ABT
01-04Z/04...W/ ONLY AN ISOLD TSTM PSBL INVOF BAY/ERN SHORE AND OVR
THE OCN. PARTLY CLOUDY-SKC OVRNGT W/ TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
U60S-L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NE CONUS DURING THE SHORT
TERM. A WEAKNESS UNDER THE RIDGE LOCATES OVER THE MDATLC-SE
STATES...RESULTING IN WEAK FLOW ALOFT. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE
OVER ERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WILL ALLOW STRONG SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD SWD INTO NEW ENGLAND...PUSHING A BACKDOOR FRONT
INTO THE RGN FRI MRNG-AFTN. SFC WNDS TURN TO THE NE
FRI...RESULTING IN THE BEGINNINGS OF A COOL DOWN. A WARM/MOIST
AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS (SREF MLCAPE VALUES 1000-1500
J/KG) WILL REMAIN OVVR THE FA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. MORE STABLE
ALONG THE COAST DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW. HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT CHC TO
CHC POPS E AND CNTRL...BUT HAVE CONTD W/ SOLID CHANCE (40-50%) OVR
THE PIEDMONT AS WEAK S/W DROPS OVR THE RGN. VRB CLDS- PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDS W/ HI TEMPS FM THE M-U80S INVOF ERN SHORE/ALG THE CST
TO THE U80S-ARND 90F INLAND.

THE WX FM FRI NGT THROUGH SUN LOOKING MORE UNSETTLED THAN BEFORE.
PDS OF LO LVL CLDS XPCD INTO SUN W/ CONTD ENE WNDS. GUSTS UP TO
25 MPH NR THE CST LT FRI NGT. MDLS TDA ARE LESS EMPHATIC ABT DRIER
AIR MASS PUSHING SSW INTO/ACRS THE FA THIS WKND. COMBO HI PRES TO
THE NNE AND LO PRES OVR SE CONUS TO KEEP MOIST ONSHORE WNDS AND
LIKELIHOOD OF WK IMPULSES TRACKING ACRS THE FA FM THE E. WILL HAVE
20-40% POPS SAT-SUN...HIGHEST IN SE VA/NE NC. CONTD BREEZY (GUSTS
TO 25-30 MPH NR THE CST IN ERN VA/NE NC) ON SAT...LESS WND XPCD
SUN. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE M-U70S NR THE CST TO ARND 80F INLAND. LO
TEMPS SAT NGT FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F. HI TEMPS SUN FM THE U70S TO
L80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF SUN NGT AND MON WITH SFC LO PRES
SPINNING OFF THE CAROLINA CST WITH HI PRES N AND W OF THE FA.
RESULTANT ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO TEMPS ONLY MAKING IT INTO THE
MID 80S MON UNDER A PRTLY-MSTLY SKY. WITH THE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLGT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER MUCH OF THE FA
SUN NGT/MON. KEPT THUNDER OUT DUE TO A LACK OF INSTABILITY. THE
SFC LO WEAKENS AND STARTS SLIDING E TUE ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDS
AND TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID/UPR 80S UNDER A PRTLY CLOUDY
SKY. DRY WX CONTINUES MIDWEEK WITH TEMPS FURTHER INCREASING AS SLY
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRNT...WITH HI TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO NR 90 WED AND THUR. THE FRNT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SOMETIME LATE THU OR FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION MAY INITIATE
SOME ISLOATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING. MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED CONVECTION.
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY ALONG BACKDOOR
COLDFRONT PASSAGE.

DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THE
OCEAN/BAY/LWR JAMES. FOR TNGT...WEAK TROF OF LO PRES OVER THE WTRS
WILL LEAD TO VRB WINDS UNDER 10 KT. NE FLOW THEN DEVELOPS FRI AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRNT DROPS TWRDS THE REGION AND HI PRES OVERSPREADS
THE NE STATES. WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THRU THE DAY OVER ALL
WTRS...TO 15-20 KT OVER THE BAY/OCEAN BY THE EVENG HRS AND LWR
JAMES BY ERLY OVRNGT. AT THE SAME TIME...WAVES OVER THE LWR BAY
WILL INCREASE TO 4 FT WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS UP TO 6 FT. THE SCA
WILL RUN THRU THE END OF THE 4TH PERIOD FOR NOW (SAT AFTN) BUT
MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER OUT IN TIME ESPECIALLY OVER CSTL
WTRS WITH SEAS AOA 5 FT LIKELY CONTINUING INTO SAT NGT/SUN. IN
ADDITION...THE ONSHORE FLOW AND HI WAVES WILL ENHANCE THE RIP
CURRENT THREAT FOR THE HOLIDAY WKEND. GUID CONTS TO BUILD TIDES
TO BTWN 1/2 TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NRML BY SAT...BUT REMAIN BLO MINOR
FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SFC HI
WEAKENS AND FLOW BCMS MORE OUT OF THE E THAN NE. WINDS THEN TURN
TO THE S MIDWEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRNT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR ANZ638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...MPR/DAP
MARINE...MAS



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031959
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
359 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST
STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ANOTHER SUMMERY AFTN W/ SCT CU AND HEAT INDICES RANGING THROUGH
THE 90S. MUCH LESS COVERAGE TO PCPN ATTM...AND TRENDS IN HI-RES
MDLS SUPPORTS IDEA OF LESS CONVECTION THIS EVE AS COMPARED TO WED
EVE. WILL CONT TO CARRY 20-30% FM THE BAY W THROUGH ABT
01-04Z/04...W/ ONLY AN ISOLD TSTM PSBL INVOF BAY/ERN SHORE AND OVR
THE OCN. PARTLY CLOUDY-SKC OVRNGT W/ TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
U60S-L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NE CONUS DURING THE SHORT
TERM. A WEAKNESS UNDER THE RIDGE LOCATES OVER THE MDATLC-SE
STATES...RESULTING IN WEAK FLOW ALOFT. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE
OVER ERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WILL ALLOW STRONG SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD SWD INTO NEW ENGLAND...PUSHING A BACKDOOR FRONT
INTO THE RGN FRI MRNG-AFTN. SFC WNDS TURN TO THE NE
FRI...RESULTING IN THE BEGINNINGS OF A COOL DOWN. A WARM/MOIST
AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS (SREF MLCAPE VALUES 1000-1500
J/KG) WILL REMAIN OVVR THE FA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. MORE STABLE
ALONG THE COAST DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW. HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT CHC TO
CHC POPS E AND CNTRL...BUT HAVE CONTD W/ SOLID CHANCE (40-50%) OVR
THE PIEDMONT AS WEAK S/W DROPS OVR THE RGN. VRB CLDS- PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDS W/ HI TEMPS FM THE M-U80S INVOF ERN SHORE/ALG THE CST
TO THE U80S-ARND 90F INLAND.

THE WX FM FRI NGT THROUGH SUN LOOKING MORE UNSETTLED THAN BEFORE.
PDS OF LO LVL CLDS XPCD INTO SUN W/ CONTD ENE WNDS. GUSTS UP TO
25 MPH NR THE CST LT FRI NGT. MDLS TDA ARE LESS EMPHATIC ABT DRIER
AIR MASS PUSHING SSW INTO/ACRS THE FA THIS WKND. COMBO HI PRES TO
THE NNE AND LO PRES OVR SE CONUS TO KEEP MOIST ONSHORE WNDS AND
LIKELIHOOD OF WK IMPULSES TRACKING ACRS THE FA FM THE E. WILL HAVE
20-40% POPS SAT-SUN...HIGHEST IN SE VA/NE NC. CONTD BREEZY (GUSTS
TO 25-30 MPH NR THE CST IN ERN VA/NE NC) ON SAT...LESS WND XPCD
SUN. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE M-U70S NR THE CST TO ARND 80F INLAND. LO
TEMPS SAT NGT FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F. HI TEMPS SUN FM THE U70S TO
L80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF SUN NGT AND MON WITH SFC LO PRES
SPINNING OFF THE CAROLINA CST WITH HI PRES N AND W OF THE FA.
RESULTANT ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO TEMPS ONLY MAKING IT INTO THE
MID 80S MON UNDER A PRTLY-MSTLY SKY. WITH THE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLGT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER MUCH OF THE FA
SUN NGT/MON. KEPT THUNDER OUT DUE TO A LACK OF INSTABILITY. THE
SFC LO WEAKENS AND STARTS SLIDING E TUE ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDS
AND TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID/UPR 80S UNDER A PRTLY CLOUDY
SKY. DRY WX CONTINUES MIDWEEK WITH TEMPS FURTHER INCREASING AS SLY
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRNT...WITH HI TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO NR 90 WED AND THUR. THE FRNT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SOMETIME LATE THU OR FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION MAY INITIATE
SOME ISLOATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING. MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED CONVECTION.
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY ALONG BACKDOOR
COLDFRONT PASSAGE.

DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THE
OCEAN/BAY/LWR JAMES. FOR TNGT...WEAK TROF OF LO PRES OVER THE WTRS
WILL LEAD TO VRB WINDS UNDER 10 KT. NE FLOW THEN DEVELOPS FRI AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRNT DROPS TWRDS THE REGION AND HI PRES OVERSPREADS
THE NE STATES. WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THRU THE DAY OVER ALL
WTRS...TO 15-20 KT OVER THE BAY/OCEAN BY THE EVENG HRS AND LWR
JAMES BY ERLY OVRNGT. AT THE SAME TIME...WAVES OVER THE LWR BAY
WILL INCREASE TO 4 FT WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS UP TO 6 FT. THE SCA
WILL RUN THRU THE END OF THE 4TH PERIOD FOR NOW (SAT AFTN) BUT
MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER OUT IN TIME ESPECIALLY OVER CSTL
WTRS WITH SEAS AOA 5 FT LIKELY CONTINUING INTO SAT NGT/SUN. IN
ADDITION...THE ONSHORE FLOW AND HI WAVES WILL ENHANCE THE RIP
CURRENT THREAT FOR THE HOLIDAY WKEND. GUID CONTS TO BUILD TIDES
TO BTWN 1/2 TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NRML BY SAT...BUT REMAIN BLO MINOR
FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SFC HI
WEAKENS AND FLOW BCMS MORE OUT OF THE E THAN NE. WINDS THEN TURN
TO THE S MIDWEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRNT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR ANZ638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...MPR/DAP
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KPHI 031956
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
356 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY,
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY. HOWEVER, IT WILL CONTINUE AFFECT THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY, THEN PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
AROUND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHARPEN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL
PLAIN, NOT TOO FAR EAST OF I-95. A SEA-BREEZE FRONT WAS WELL-DEFINED
ON DOPPLER RADAR ACROSS SOUTHERN NJ AND DE AND HAS MOVED ABOUT 15
MILES INLAND AS OF 3 PM.

DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES FROM THIS MORNING`S UPDATE TO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING POP/WX GRIDS. WE ARE HIGHLIGHTING TWO SEPARATE
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS: 1)THE LOWER DELMARVA, WHERE
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS AND LOCALLY
HIGHER INSTABILITY ARE PRESENT AND 2) IN NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST
NJ WELL AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHERE THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION IS TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS. CONVECTION IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES
WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON (AFTER 4 PM) AND THIS
EVENING AS UPSTREAM ACTIVITY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL PA HAS A WEAK STORM
MOTION. THE BETTER LIFT ALONG THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA UNTIL LATE TONIGHT, LIMITED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.

THE COLD FRONT BOUNDARY WILL START TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PRECIP WITH IT OVERNIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES BEFOREHAND. DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THIS
EVENING`S CONVECTION WILL IMPACT NE PA AND NW NJ. ELSEWHERE, EXPECT
CLOUDS WILL BE MUCH MORE SCATTERED AND THE WINDS WILL RELAX THIS
EVENING, ALLOWING THE SURFACE TO RADIATE MORE EFFECTIVELY.
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND WILL MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD
DURING THE EARLY MORNING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
THE EXTENT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHWESTWARD THRU
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A LAG BETWEEN THE FROPA AND
ARRIVAL OF THE COOLER AIR. THE FORMER WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON,
WHEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC NOSES SOUTHWARD DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS PRESSURE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BREEZY
E TO NE WINDS THAT WILL ADVECT COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA. THEREFORE,
THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
RANGING FROM THE 70S ALONG THE COAST AND IN NORTHERN NJ TO NEAR 90F
IN EASTERN MD. ANOTHER REASON FOR THE LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS
THE CLOUD COVER, WHICH WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS NJ AND NORTHEAST PA
THAN FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

WITH MORE STABLE MARINE AIR ADVECTING INLAND DURING THE DAY, THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE INLAND (OUT TOWARD
READING AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY) AND DURING THE
PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE AFTERNOON. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED IN THESE FAR WESTERN ZONES AND MORE
ISOLATED CLOSER TO THE DELAWARE VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING, ANY
REMAINING SHOWERS WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA OR DISSIPATE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST FROM THE NORTH
FROM SATURDAY, BEFORE IT MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY, WHICH WILL PROVIDE
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE
INDICATING THERE MAY BE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. ALL INDICATIONS ARE ANY PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE LIGHT.

ONE THING OF NOTE IS MODELS ARE INDICATING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THEY MOVE THIS LOW NORTHWARD, WHILE
WEAKENING IT, BUT KEEP IT OFFSHORE AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY TUESDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE IT GETS,
THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN A COLD FRONT, WHICH IS NOW FORECAST TO
BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY, BUT IT LOOKS MORE LIKELY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES COOL OFF SLIGHTLY SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A WARMING
TREND SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD APPROACH ABE AND RDG BETWEEN 20-
01Z. DID NOT INCLUDE THIS IN THE TAFS DUE TO SUCH LOW CHANCES.
OTHERWISE, VFR THRU 06Z. NLY WINDS 5-10 KT THIS AFTN. THE EXCEPTION
IS ACY, WHERE WINDS ARE SELY IN WAKE OF A SEA-BREEZE FRONT. THE SEA
BREEZE WILL LIKELY MAKE IT TO MIV LATE THIS AFTN AND THEN PERHAPS
THE I-95 TERMINALS TOWARD 00Z. A BRIEF WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE SE
WOULD OCCUR.

PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BUT A LIGHT NELY WIND
AND CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE EXTENT OF IT. ONLY HAVE MVFR
RESTRICTIONS AT MIV FOR NOW.

NELY WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BEHIND A FRONT TO AROUND
10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY E-NE WINDS AROUND 15-
20 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE AROUND
DAYBREAK EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HAZARDS ON THE MARINE ANTICIPATED THRU FRIDAY MORNING. NELY
WINDS WILL INCREASE THOUGH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND SCA
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER THAT AFTERNOON IN OUR
NORTHERN ZONES WITH 15- 20 KT WINDS (GUSTS TO 25 KT) AND SEAS OF
4-5 ARE FORECAST TO ARRIVE.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...SEAS REMAIN ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS WITH THE EASTERLY FETCH BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WINDS REMAIN ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AS WELL FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

SUNDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...SEAS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BACK BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS THEN EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE THREAT FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL BE ENHANCED FRIDAY AND
THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY WEEKEND. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SURGE BEHIND
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OF 10 TO 15 KT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY MORNING
AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT FRIDAY AFTERNOON THRU SATURDAY. WAVES
WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE TO THIS WIND SURGE, FORECASTED TO INCREASE
TO 4-7 FT BY LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY. THE WINDS AND WAVES ALONG THE
COAST SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SUBJECT
TO CHANGE SEVERAL DAYS OUT, BUT IN-HOUSE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A
MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FRIDAY AND MODERATE TO POSSIBLY NEAR
HIGH FOR SATURDAY. THE RISK SHOULD SUBSIDE A BIT BY SUNDAY BUT IT
MAY STILL BE MODERATE.

IT IS PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT FOR SAFETY AWARENESS TO SHARE THIS
INFORMATION TO BEACHGOERS AND LIFEGUARDS WITH THE BEACH CROWD
ANTICIPATED TO BE LARGER THAN NORMAL GIVEN IT`S LABOR DAY WEEKEND
AND THERE IS PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...KLEIN




000
FXUS61 KPHI 031956
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
356 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY,
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY. HOWEVER, IT WILL CONTINUE AFFECT THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY, THEN PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
AROUND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHARPEN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL
PLAIN, NOT TOO FAR EAST OF I-95. A SEA-BREEZE FRONT WAS WELL-DEFINED
ON DOPPLER RADAR ACROSS SOUTHERN NJ AND DE AND HAS MOVED ABOUT 15
MILES INLAND AS OF 3 PM.

DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES FROM THIS MORNING`S UPDATE TO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING POP/WX GRIDS. WE ARE HIGHLIGHTING TWO SEPARATE
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS: 1)THE LOWER DELMARVA, WHERE
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS AND LOCALLY
HIGHER INSTABILITY ARE PRESENT AND 2) IN NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST
NJ WELL AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHERE THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION IS TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS. CONVECTION IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES
WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON (AFTER 4 PM) AND THIS
EVENING AS UPSTREAM ACTIVITY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL PA HAS A WEAK STORM
MOTION. THE BETTER LIFT ALONG THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA UNTIL LATE TONIGHT, LIMITED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.

THE COLD FRONT BOUNDARY WILL START TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PRECIP WITH IT OVERNIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES BEFOREHAND. DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THIS
EVENING`S CONVECTION WILL IMPACT NE PA AND NW NJ. ELSEWHERE, EXPECT
CLOUDS WILL BE MUCH MORE SCATTERED AND THE WINDS WILL RELAX THIS
EVENING, ALLOWING THE SURFACE TO RADIATE MORE EFFECTIVELY.
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND WILL MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD
DURING THE EARLY MORNING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
THE EXTENT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHWESTWARD THRU
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A LAG BETWEEN THE FROPA AND
ARRIVAL OF THE COOLER AIR. THE FORMER WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON,
WHEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC NOSES SOUTHWARD DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS PRESSURE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BREEZY
E TO NE WINDS THAT WILL ADVECT COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA. THEREFORE,
THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
RANGING FROM THE 70S ALONG THE COAST AND IN NORTHERN NJ TO NEAR 90F
IN EASTERN MD. ANOTHER REASON FOR THE LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS
THE CLOUD COVER, WHICH WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS NJ AND NORTHEAST PA
THAN FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

WITH MORE STABLE MARINE AIR ADVECTING INLAND DURING THE DAY, THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE INLAND (OUT TOWARD
READING AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY) AND DURING THE
PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE AFTERNOON. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED IN THESE FAR WESTERN ZONES AND MORE
ISOLATED CLOSER TO THE DELAWARE VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING, ANY
REMAINING SHOWERS WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA OR DISSIPATE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST FROM THE NORTH
FROM SATURDAY, BEFORE IT MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY, WHICH WILL PROVIDE
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE
INDICATING THERE MAY BE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. ALL INDICATIONS ARE ANY PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE LIGHT.

ONE THING OF NOTE IS MODELS ARE INDICATING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THEY MOVE THIS LOW NORTHWARD, WHILE
WEAKENING IT, BUT KEEP IT OFFSHORE AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY TUESDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE IT GETS,
THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN A COLD FRONT, WHICH IS NOW FORECAST TO
BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY, BUT IT LOOKS MORE LIKELY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES COOL OFF SLIGHTLY SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A WARMING
TREND SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD APPROACH ABE AND RDG BETWEEN 20-
01Z. DID NOT INCLUDE THIS IN THE TAFS DUE TO SUCH LOW CHANCES.
OTHERWISE, VFR THRU 06Z. NLY WINDS 5-10 KT THIS AFTN. THE EXCEPTION
IS ACY, WHERE WINDS ARE SELY IN WAKE OF A SEA-BREEZE FRONT. THE SEA
BREEZE WILL LIKELY MAKE IT TO MIV LATE THIS AFTN AND THEN PERHAPS
THE I-95 TERMINALS TOWARD 00Z. A BRIEF WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE SE
WOULD OCCUR.

PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BUT A LIGHT NELY WIND
AND CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE EXTENT OF IT. ONLY HAVE MVFR
RESTRICTIONS AT MIV FOR NOW.

NELY WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BEHIND A FRONT TO AROUND
10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY E-NE WINDS AROUND 15-
20 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE AROUND
DAYBREAK EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HAZARDS ON THE MARINE ANTICIPATED THRU FRIDAY MORNING. NELY
WINDS WILL INCREASE THOUGH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND SCA
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER THAT AFTERNOON IN OUR
NORTHERN ZONES WITH 15- 20 KT WINDS (GUSTS TO 25 KT) AND SEAS OF
4-5 ARE FORECAST TO ARRIVE.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...SEAS REMAIN ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS WITH THE EASTERLY FETCH BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WINDS REMAIN ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AS WELL FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

SUNDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...SEAS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BACK BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS THEN EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE THREAT FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL BE ENHANCED FRIDAY AND
THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY WEEKEND. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SURGE BEHIND
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OF 10 TO 15 KT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY MORNING
AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT FRIDAY AFTERNOON THRU SATURDAY. WAVES
WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE TO THIS WIND SURGE, FORECASTED TO INCREASE
TO 4-7 FT BY LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY. THE WINDS AND WAVES ALONG THE
COAST SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SUBJECT
TO CHANGE SEVERAL DAYS OUT, BUT IN-HOUSE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A
MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FRIDAY AND MODERATE TO POSSIBLY NEAR
HIGH FOR SATURDAY. THE RISK SHOULD SUBSIDE A BIT BY SUNDAY BUT IT
MAY STILL BE MODERATE.

IT IS PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT FOR SAFETY AWARENESS TO SHARE THIS
INFORMATION TO BEACHGOERS AND LIFEGUARDS WITH THE BEACH CROWD
ANTICIPATED TO BE LARGER THAN NORMAL GIVEN IT`S LABOR DAY WEEKEND
AND THERE IS PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...KLEIN



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031942
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
342 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...WITH LIMITATIONS IMPOSED BY A WEAK
WIND FIELD AND WARM MID LEVELS INHIBITING EXPLOSIVE INSTABILITY.
CELLS WILL THUS DROP BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...AND POSSIBLY SOME GUSTY
WIND AS THEY PULSE.

OTHERWISE...ABOVE AVERAGE WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE.
EXPECT LOWS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMALS.

SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE DIURNALLY SUPPORTED CONVECTION IS AGAIN
EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE SUPPORT ANTICIPATED. NO CHANGE
TO WARM AIRMASS THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH IS PROJECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD
ACROSS PA UNDER A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE
AND WARMTH ALOFT WILL INHIBIT DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. RELIEF FROM THE
QUITE WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH COLD FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...AS WELL AS AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MARRED BY SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS
EVENING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR AS FOG DEVELOPS BY DAWN.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031942
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
342 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...WITH LIMITATIONS IMPOSED BY A WEAK
WIND FIELD AND WARM MID LEVELS INHIBITING EXPLOSIVE INSTABILITY.
CELLS WILL THUS DROP BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...AND POSSIBLY SOME GUSTY
WIND AS THEY PULSE.

OTHERWISE...ABOVE AVERAGE WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE.
EXPECT LOWS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMALS.

SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE DIURNALLY SUPPORTED CONVECTION IS AGAIN
EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE SUPPORT ANTICIPATED. NO CHANGE
TO WARM AIRMASS THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH IS PROJECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD
ACROSS PA UNDER A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE
AND WARMTH ALOFT WILL INHIBIT DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. RELIEF FROM THE
QUITE WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH COLD FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...AS WELL AS AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MARRED BY SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS
EVENING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR AS FOG DEVELOPS BY DAWN.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031942
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
342 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...WITH LIMITATIONS IMPOSED BY A WEAK
WIND FIELD AND WARM MID LEVELS INHIBITING EXPLOSIVE INSTABILITY.
CELLS WILL THUS DROP BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...AND POSSIBLY SOME GUSTY
WIND AS THEY PULSE.

OTHERWISE...ABOVE AVERAGE WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE.
EXPECT LOWS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMALS.

SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE DIURNALLY SUPPORTED CONVECTION IS AGAIN
EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE SUPPORT ANTICIPATED. NO CHANGE
TO WARM AIRMASS THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH IS PROJECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD
ACROSS PA UNDER A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE
AND WARMTH ALOFT WILL INHIBIT DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. RELIEF FROM THE
QUITE WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH COLD FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...AS WELL AS AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MARRED BY SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS
EVENING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR AS FOG DEVELOPS BY DAWN.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15




000
FXUS61 KLWX 031858
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
258 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD DURING THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND IT WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM TONIGHT AS
WELL. TERRAIN CIRCULATION HAS BEEN THE PRIMARY LIFTING MECHANISM
FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MAY POP UP NEAR
THE METRO AREAS AS WELL...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED DUE TO
THE LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM.

CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL
BE SOME FOG...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT IN SHELTERED VALLEYS AND
AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY AND THIS WILL
SEND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA. AN EASTERLY WIND WILL
DEVELOP AND IT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT AS TODAY...BUT STILL
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN AROUND WITH THE
MAIN DEWPOINT AND TEMPERATURE GRADIENT REMAINING OFF TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST DURING THE DAY. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ALONG WITH THE
BOUNDARY WILL CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE BACKDOOR BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE ALLEGHENY AND
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA FRIDAY NIGHT. CONVECTION
SHOULD DISSIPATE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE NEAR THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE ALLEGHENY AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TOWARD CENTRAL VIRGINIA. THE
EASTERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP DUE TO
MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. DRIER AIR MAY EVENTUALLY SNEAK
INTO NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND TOWARD MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUDS WILL GREATLY LIMIT TEMPERATURES WITH MOST
AREAS SATURDAY BELOW NORMAL. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY LOOK TO BE UPR
70S/LOW 80S. THIS IS PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS WEST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE
WERE UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW BRINGS SOME CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN TO SRN
MD SUNDAY...OTW DRY. GREATER SUNSHINE SUNDAY SHOULD BRING MAX TEMPS
UP TO THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESS DOMINATES CONDITIONS FOR SUN NIGHT AND MON BRINGING
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE LABOR DAY WKND. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING A WEAK LOW PRESS SYSTEM WILL DRIFT NORTH
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THAT WILL ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE ATLC
INTO OUR REGION MON INTO TUE. THIS COULD BRING SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TO OUR REGION... MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA ON MONDAY AND
OVER ALL OF OUR CWA TUE AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. HIGH PRESS
BUILDS IN ON WED BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON THU INCREASING
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE COLD
FRONT IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW
80S TO THE UPR 90S NEAR THE METRO AREA AND LOW 80S TO OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT COVERAGE WILL REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FEEL THE
BEST CHANCE FOR FOG WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS WITH A
LIGHT GRADIENT WIND KEEPING VSBY UP FARTHER EAST.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY. AN
EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LOW CLOUDS MAY REDUCE
CIGS/VSBY TO MVFR AND IFR LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE EASTERLY
FLOW.

ONSHORE FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. MVFR CIGS LIFT SATURDAY WITH VFR THEN THROUGH SUNDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN NIGHT AND MON.

&&

.MARINE...
A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT WINDS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORM
MAY CONTAIN BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY. AN
EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH A
PRESSURE SURGE FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

ONSHORE FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. SCA FOR MOST WATERS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO THE
EVENING...THEN SOME CHANCES AGAIN SUNDAY WITH MOST WIND CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO BE AOB 15 KT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON. SOME SHOWERS
AND TSTMS PSBL OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW HAS WEAKENED OVER THE WATERS AND THIS
HAS ALLOWED FOR ANOMALIES TO INCREASE. THE FLOW WILL TURN TO THE
EAST FRIDAY BUT IT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP WATER LEVELS
BELOW FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE NEAR TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BAJ/BJL
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...BAJ/BJL/IMR
MARINE...BAJ/BJL/IMR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL



000
FXUS61 KLWX 031858
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
258 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD DURING THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND IT WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM TONIGHT AS
WELL. TERRAIN CIRCULATION HAS BEEN THE PRIMARY LIFTING MECHANISM
FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MAY POP UP NEAR
THE METRO AREAS AS WELL...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED DUE TO
THE LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM.

CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL
BE SOME FOG...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT IN SHELTERED VALLEYS AND
AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY AND THIS WILL
SEND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA. AN EASTERLY WIND WILL
DEVELOP AND IT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT AS TODAY...BUT STILL
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN AROUND WITH THE
MAIN DEWPOINT AND TEMPERATURE GRADIENT REMAINING OFF TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST DURING THE DAY. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ALONG WITH THE
BOUNDARY WILL CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE BACKDOOR BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE ALLEGHENY AND
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA FRIDAY NIGHT. CONVECTION
SHOULD DISSIPATE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE NEAR THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE ALLEGHENY AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TOWARD CENTRAL VIRGINIA. THE
EASTERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP DUE TO
MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. DRIER AIR MAY EVENTUALLY SNEAK
INTO NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND TOWARD MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUDS WILL GREATLY LIMIT TEMPERATURES WITH MOST
AREAS SATURDAY BELOW NORMAL. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY LOOK TO BE UPR
70S/LOW 80S. THIS IS PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS WEST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE
WERE UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW BRINGS SOME CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN TO SRN
MD SUNDAY...OTW DRY. GREATER SUNSHINE SUNDAY SHOULD BRING MAX TEMPS
UP TO THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESS DOMINATES CONDITIONS FOR SUN NIGHT AND MON BRINGING
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE LABOR DAY WKND. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING A WEAK LOW PRESS SYSTEM WILL DRIFT NORTH
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THAT WILL ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE ATLC
INTO OUR REGION MON INTO TUE. THIS COULD BRING SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TO OUR REGION... MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA ON MONDAY AND
OVER ALL OF OUR CWA TUE AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. HIGH PRESS
BUILDS IN ON WED BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON THU INCREASING
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE COLD
FRONT IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW
80S TO THE UPR 90S NEAR THE METRO AREA AND LOW 80S TO OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT COVERAGE WILL REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FEEL THE
BEST CHANCE FOR FOG WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS WITH A
LIGHT GRADIENT WIND KEEPING VSBY UP FARTHER EAST.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY. AN
EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LOW CLOUDS MAY REDUCE
CIGS/VSBY TO MVFR AND IFR LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE EASTERLY
FLOW.

ONSHORE FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. MVFR CIGS LIFT SATURDAY WITH VFR THEN THROUGH SUNDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN NIGHT AND MON.

&&

.MARINE...
A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT WINDS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORM
MAY CONTAIN BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY. AN
EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH A
PRESSURE SURGE FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

ONSHORE FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. SCA FOR MOST WATERS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO THE
EVENING...THEN SOME CHANCES AGAIN SUNDAY WITH MOST WIND CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO BE AOB 15 KT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON. SOME SHOWERS
AND TSTMS PSBL OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW HAS WEAKENED OVER THE WATERS AND THIS
HAS ALLOWED FOR ANOMALIES TO INCREASE. THE FLOW WILL TURN TO THE
EAST FRIDAY BUT IT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP WATER LEVELS
BELOW FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE NEAR TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BAJ/BJL
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...BAJ/BJL/IMR
MARINE...BAJ/BJL/IMR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL



000
FXUS61 KLWX 031858
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
258 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD DURING THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND IT WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM TONIGHT AS
WELL. TERRAIN CIRCULATION HAS BEEN THE PRIMARY LIFTING MECHANISM
FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MAY POP UP NEAR
THE METRO AREAS AS WELL...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED DUE TO
THE LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM.

CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL
BE SOME FOG...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT IN SHELTERED VALLEYS AND
AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY AND THIS WILL
SEND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA. AN EASTERLY WIND WILL
DEVELOP AND IT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT AS TODAY...BUT STILL
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN AROUND WITH THE
MAIN DEWPOINT AND TEMPERATURE GRADIENT REMAINING OFF TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST DURING THE DAY. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ALONG WITH THE
BOUNDARY WILL CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE BACKDOOR BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE ALLEGHENY AND
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA FRIDAY NIGHT. CONVECTION
SHOULD DISSIPATE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE NEAR THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE ALLEGHENY AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TOWARD CENTRAL VIRGINIA. THE
EASTERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP DUE TO
MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. DRIER AIR MAY EVENTUALLY SNEAK
INTO NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND TOWARD MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUDS WILL GREATLY LIMIT TEMPERATURES WITH MOST
AREAS SATURDAY BELOW NORMAL. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY LOOK TO BE UPR
70S/LOW 80S. THIS IS PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS WEST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE
WERE UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW BRINGS SOME CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN TO SRN
MD SUNDAY...OTW DRY. GREATER SUNSHINE SUNDAY SHOULD BRING MAX TEMPS
UP TO THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESS DOMINATES CONDITIONS FOR SUN NIGHT AND MON BRINGING
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE LABOR DAY WKND. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING A WEAK LOW PRESS SYSTEM WILL DRIFT NORTH
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THAT WILL ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE ATLC
INTO OUR REGION MON INTO TUE. THIS COULD BRING SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TO OUR REGION... MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA ON MONDAY AND
OVER ALL OF OUR CWA TUE AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. HIGH PRESS
BUILDS IN ON WED BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON THU INCREASING
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE COLD
FRONT IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW
80S TO THE UPR 90S NEAR THE METRO AREA AND LOW 80S TO OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT COVERAGE WILL REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FEEL THE
BEST CHANCE FOR FOG WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS WITH A
LIGHT GRADIENT WIND KEEPING VSBY UP FARTHER EAST.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY. AN
EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LOW CLOUDS MAY REDUCE
CIGS/VSBY TO MVFR AND IFR LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE EASTERLY
FLOW.

ONSHORE FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. MVFR CIGS LIFT SATURDAY WITH VFR THEN THROUGH SUNDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN NIGHT AND MON.

&&

.MARINE...
A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT WINDS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORM
MAY CONTAIN BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY. AN
EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH A
PRESSURE SURGE FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

ONSHORE FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. SCA FOR MOST WATERS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO THE
EVENING...THEN SOME CHANCES AGAIN SUNDAY WITH MOST WIND CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO BE AOB 15 KT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON. SOME SHOWERS
AND TSTMS PSBL OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW HAS WEAKENED OVER THE WATERS AND THIS
HAS ALLOWED FOR ANOMALIES TO INCREASE. THE FLOW WILL TURN TO THE
EAST FRIDAY BUT IT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP WATER LEVELS
BELOW FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE NEAR TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BAJ/BJL
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...BAJ/BJL/IMR
MARINE...BAJ/BJL/IMR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL



000
FXUS61 KLWX 031858
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
258 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD DURING THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND IT WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM TONIGHT AS
WELL. TERRAIN CIRCULATION HAS BEEN THE PRIMARY LIFTING MECHANISM
FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MAY POP UP NEAR
THE METRO AREAS AS WELL...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED DUE TO
THE LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM.

CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL
BE SOME FOG...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT IN SHELTERED VALLEYS AND
AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY AND THIS WILL
SEND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA. AN EASTERLY WIND WILL
DEVELOP AND IT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT AS TODAY...BUT STILL
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN AROUND WITH THE
MAIN DEWPOINT AND TEMPERATURE GRADIENT REMAINING OFF TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST DURING THE DAY. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ALONG WITH THE
BOUNDARY WILL CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE BACKDOOR BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE ALLEGHENY AND
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA FRIDAY NIGHT. CONVECTION
SHOULD DISSIPATE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE NEAR THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE ALLEGHENY AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TOWARD CENTRAL VIRGINIA. THE
EASTERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP DUE TO
MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. DRIER AIR MAY EVENTUALLY SNEAK
INTO NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND TOWARD MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUDS WILL GREATLY LIMIT TEMPERATURES WITH MOST
AREAS SATURDAY BELOW NORMAL. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY LOOK TO BE UPR
70S/LOW 80S. THIS IS PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS WEST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE
WERE UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW BRINGS SOME CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN TO SRN
MD SUNDAY...OTW DRY. GREATER SUNSHINE SUNDAY SHOULD BRING MAX TEMPS
UP TO THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESS DOMINATES CONDITIONS FOR SUN NIGHT AND MON BRINGING
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE LABOR DAY WKND. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING A WEAK LOW PRESS SYSTEM WILL DRIFT NORTH
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THAT WILL ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE ATLC
INTO OUR REGION MON INTO TUE. THIS COULD BRING SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TO OUR REGION... MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA ON MONDAY AND
OVER ALL OF OUR CWA TUE AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. HIGH PRESS
BUILDS IN ON WED BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON THU INCREASING
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE COLD
FRONT IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW
80S TO THE UPR 90S NEAR THE METRO AREA AND LOW 80S TO OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT COVERAGE WILL REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FEEL THE
BEST CHANCE FOR FOG WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS WITH A
LIGHT GRADIENT WIND KEEPING VSBY UP FARTHER EAST.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY. AN
EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LOW CLOUDS MAY REDUCE
CIGS/VSBY TO MVFR AND IFR LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE EASTERLY
FLOW.

ONSHORE FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. MVFR CIGS LIFT SATURDAY WITH VFR THEN THROUGH SUNDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN NIGHT AND MON.

&&

.MARINE...
A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT WINDS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORM
MAY CONTAIN BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY. AN
EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH A
PRESSURE SURGE FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

ONSHORE FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. SCA FOR MOST WATERS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO THE
EVENING...THEN SOME CHANCES AGAIN SUNDAY WITH MOST WIND CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO BE AOB 15 KT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON. SOME SHOWERS
AND TSTMS PSBL OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW HAS WEAKENED OVER THE WATERS AND THIS
HAS ALLOWED FOR ANOMALIES TO INCREASE. THE FLOW WILL TURN TO THE
EAST FRIDAY BUT IT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP WATER LEVELS
BELOW FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE NEAR TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BAJ/BJL
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...BAJ/BJL/IMR
MARINE...BAJ/BJL/IMR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031857
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
257 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST
STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ANOTHER SUMMERY AFTN W/ SCT CU AND HEAT INDICES RANGING THROUGH
THE 90S. MUCH LESS COVERAGE TO PCPN ATTM...AND TRENDS IN HI-RES
MDLS SUPPORTS IDEA OF LESS CONVECTION THIS EVE AS COMPARED TO WED
EVE. WILL CONT TO CARRY 20-30% FM THE BAY W THROUGH ABT
01-04Z/04...W/ ONLY AN ISOLD TSTM PSBL INVOF BAY/ERN SHORE AND OVR
THE OCN. PARTLY CLOUDY-SKC OVRNGT W/ TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
U60S-L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NE CONUS DURING THE SHORT
TERM. A WEAKNESS UNDER THE RIDGE LOCATES OVER THE MDATLC-SE
STATES...RESULTING IN WEAK FLOW ALOFT. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE
OVER ERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WILL ALLOW STRONG SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD SWD INTO NEW ENGLAND...PUSHING A BACKDOOR FRONT
INTO THE RGN FRI MRNG-AFTN. SFC WNDS TURN TO THE NE
FRI...RESULTING IN THE BEGINNINGS OF A COOL DOWN. A WARM/MOIST
AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS (SREF MLCAPE VALUES 1000-1500
J/KG) WILL REMAIN OVVR THE FA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. MORE STABLE
ALONG THE COAST DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW. HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT CHC TO
CHC POPS E AND CNTRL...BUT HAVE CONTD W/ SOLID CHANCE (40-50%) OVR
THE PIEDMONT AS WEAK S/W DROPS OVR THE RGN. VRB CLDS- PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDS W/ HI TEMPS FM THE M-U80S INVOF ERN SHORE/ALG THE CST
TO THE U80S-ARND 90F INLAND.

THE WX FM FRI NGT THROUGH SUN LOOKING MORE UNSETTLED THAN BEFORE.
PDS OF LO LVL CLDS XPCD INTO SUN W/ CONTD ENE WNDS. GUSTS UP TO
25 MPH NR THE CST LT FRI NGT. MDLS TDA ARE LESS EMPHATIC ABT DRIER
AIR MASS PUSHING SSW INTO/ACRS THE FA THIS WKND. COMBO HI PRES TO
THE NNE AND LO PRES OVR SE CONUS TO KEEP MOIST ONSHORE WNDS AND
LIKELIHOOD OF WK IMPULSES TRACKING ACRS THE FA FM THE E. WILL HAVE
20-40% POPS SAT-SUN...HIGHEST IN SE VA/NE NC. CONTD BREEZY (GUSTS
TO 25-30 MPH NR THE CST IN ERN VA/NE NC) ON SAT...LESS WND XPCD
SUN. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE M-U70S NR THE CST TO ARND 80F INLAND. LO
TEMPS SAT NGT FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F. HI TEMPS SUN FM THE U70S TO
L80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY WX WITH SFC HI PRES IN
THE VICINITY. FOR SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...NE FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE
FA AS SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVER THE NRN MID ATLC. WITH SOME MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER SE
AREAS SAT NGT. TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60S SAT NGT AND REACH ONLY
THE LO/MID 80S SUN AFTN. FLOW BCMS ELY MON THAN SLY BY TUE AND
WED AS THE HI SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LO/MID 80S MON TO MID/UPR 80S TUE
AND WED. BULK OF PCPN IS EXPECTED TO STAY S OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD WITH ANY CHANCE OF RAIN (20%) CONFINED TO EXTREME
SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION MAY INITIATE
SOME ISLOATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING. MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED CONVECTION.
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY ALONG BACKDOOR
COLDFRONT PASSAGE.

DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN SHORT AS WINDS REMAIN BLO 15 KTS THRU FRI MORNING.
WND DRCTN RTHR CHAOTIC DUE TO A LINGERING TROF TODAY. XPCT THE W-NW
FLOW THIS MORN TO BECOME ONSHORE THIS AFTRN DUE TO LCL SEA BREEZES
THEN BACK TO A VRBL DRCTN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRS REMAINS OVRHD.

MODELS PROG A 1025MB HIGH ACROSS THE GT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND
LATE FRI THRU SAT. THIS ALLOWS A BKDR CDFRNT TO PUSH S ACROSS THE
WTRS FRI AFTRN AND NIGHT. INCRG PRS GRDNT BTWN THE HIGH TO THE NRTH
AND LOW PRS DVLPNG OFF THE SERN CST WILL RESULT IN AN XTNDD PRD OF
NE WNDS THIS WKEND. LTST DATA CONTS TO SUGGEST SOLID SCA CNDTNS
ACROSS THE CSTL WTRS AND SRN CHES BAY DVLPNG N-S FRI NIGHT AND CONTG
SAT BEFORE DMNSHG SAT NIGHT.  WINDS/WAVES/SEAS CONT TO DECREASE SUN
AS THE SFC HI WEAKENS AND FLOW BCMS MORE OUT OF THE E THAN NE. WINDS
THEN TURN TO THE SE THEN S MON INTO TUE WITH SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME. HELD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE
SINCE THIS IS A 4TH-5TH PRD EVENT BUT DO XPCT SCA HEADLINES TO BE
ISSUED WITH LATER FCSTS.

IN ADDITION...THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NEARSHORE WAVES
OF 3-4 FT WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE RIP CURRENT THREAT FOR THE HOLIDAY
WKEND. GUID CONTS TO BUILD TIDES TO BTWN 1/2 TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NRML BY
SAT...BUT REMAIN BLO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...MPR/DAP
MARINE...MPR




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031857
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
257 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST
STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ANOTHER SUMMERY AFTN W/ SCT CU AND HEAT INDICES RANGING THROUGH
THE 90S. MUCH LESS COVERAGE TO PCPN ATTM...AND TRENDS IN HI-RES
MDLS SUPPORTS IDEA OF LESS CONVECTION THIS EVE AS COMPARED TO WED
EVE. WILL CONT TO CARRY 20-30% FM THE BAY W THROUGH ABT
01-04Z/04...W/ ONLY AN ISOLD TSTM PSBL INVOF BAY/ERN SHORE AND OVR
THE OCN. PARTLY CLOUDY-SKC OVRNGT W/ TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
U60S-L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NE CONUS DURING THE SHORT
TERM. A WEAKNESS UNDER THE RIDGE LOCATES OVER THE MDATLC-SE
STATES...RESULTING IN WEAK FLOW ALOFT. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE
OVER ERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WILL ALLOW STRONG SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD SWD INTO NEW ENGLAND...PUSHING A BACKDOOR FRONT
INTO THE RGN FRI MRNG-AFTN. SFC WNDS TURN TO THE NE
FRI...RESULTING IN THE BEGINNINGS OF A COOL DOWN. A WARM/MOIST
AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS (SREF MLCAPE VALUES 1000-1500
J/KG) WILL REMAIN OVVR THE FA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. MORE STABLE
ALONG THE COAST DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW. HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT CHC TO
CHC POPS E AND CNTRL...BUT HAVE CONTD W/ SOLID CHANCE (40-50%) OVR
THE PIEDMONT AS WEAK S/W DROPS OVR THE RGN. VRB CLDS- PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDS W/ HI TEMPS FM THE M-U80S INVOF ERN SHORE/ALG THE CST
TO THE U80S-ARND 90F INLAND.

THE WX FM FRI NGT THROUGH SUN LOOKING MORE UNSETTLED THAN BEFORE.
PDS OF LO LVL CLDS XPCD INTO SUN W/ CONTD ENE WNDS. GUSTS UP TO
25 MPH NR THE CST LT FRI NGT. MDLS TDA ARE LESS EMPHATIC ABT DRIER
AIR MASS PUSHING SSW INTO/ACRS THE FA THIS WKND. COMBO HI PRES TO
THE NNE AND LO PRES OVR SE CONUS TO KEEP MOIST ONSHORE WNDS AND
LIKELIHOOD OF WK IMPULSES TRACKING ACRS THE FA FM THE E. WILL HAVE
20-40% POPS SAT-SUN...HIGHEST IN SE VA/NE NC. CONTD BREEZY (GUSTS
TO 25-30 MPH NR THE CST IN ERN VA/NE NC) ON SAT...LESS WND XPCD
SUN. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE M-U70S NR THE CST TO ARND 80F INLAND. LO
TEMPS SAT NGT FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F. HI TEMPS SUN FM THE U70S TO
L80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY WX WITH SFC HI PRES IN
THE VICINITY. FOR SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...NE FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE
FA AS SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVER THE NRN MID ATLC. WITH SOME MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER SE
AREAS SAT NGT. TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60S SAT NGT AND REACH ONLY
THE LO/MID 80S SUN AFTN. FLOW BCMS ELY MON THAN SLY BY TUE AND
WED AS THE HI SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LO/MID 80S MON TO MID/UPR 80S TUE
AND WED. BULK OF PCPN IS EXPECTED TO STAY S OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD WITH ANY CHANCE OF RAIN (20%) CONFINED TO EXTREME
SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION MAY INITIATE
SOME ISLOATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING. MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED CONVECTION.
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY ALONG BACKDOOR
COLDFRONT PASSAGE.

DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN SHORT AS WINDS REMAIN BLO 15 KTS THRU FRI MORNING.
WND DRCTN RTHR CHAOTIC DUE TO A LINGERING TROF TODAY. XPCT THE W-NW
FLOW THIS MORN TO BECOME ONSHORE THIS AFTRN DUE TO LCL SEA BREEZES
THEN BACK TO A VRBL DRCTN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRS REMAINS OVRHD.

MODELS PROG A 1025MB HIGH ACROSS THE GT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND
LATE FRI THRU SAT. THIS ALLOWS A BKDR CDFRNT TO PUSH S ACROSS THE
WTRS FRI AFTRN AND NIGHT. INCRG PRS GRDNT BTWN THE HIGH TO THE NRTH
AND LOW PRS DVLPNG OFF THE SERN CST WILL RESULT IN AN XTNDD PRD OF
NE WNDS THIS WKEND. LTST DATA CONTS TO SUGGEST SOLID SCA CNDTNS
ACROSS THE CSTL WTRS AND SRN CHES BAY DVLPNG N-S FRI NIGHT AND CONTG
SAT BEFORE DMNSHG SAT NIGHT.  WINDS/WAVES/SEAS CONT TO DECREASE SUN
AS THE SFC HI WEAKENS AND FLOW BCMS MORE OUT OF THE E THAN NE. WINDS
THEN TURN TO THE SE THEN S MON INTO TUE WITH SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME. HELD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE
SINCE THIS IS A 4TH-5TH PRD EVENT BUT DO XPCT SCA HEADLINES TO BE
ISSUED WITH LATER FCSTS.

IN ADDITION...THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NEARSHORE WAVES
OF 3-4 FT WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE RIP CURRENT THREAT FOR THE HOLIDAY
WKEND. GUID CONTS TO BUILD TIDES TO BTWN 1/2 TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NRML BY
SAT...BUT REMAIN BLO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...MPR/DAP
MARINE...MPR



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031855
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
255 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST
STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER SUMMERY AFTN W/ SCT CU AND HEAT INDICES RANGING THROUGH
THE 90S. MUCH LESS COVERAGE TO PCPN ATTM...AND TRENDS IN HI-RES
MDLS SUPPORTS IDEA OF LESS CONVECTION THIS EVE AS COMPARED TO WED
EVE. WILL CONT TO CARRY 20-30% FM THE BAY W THROUGH ABT
01-04Z/04...W/ ONLY AN ISOLD TSTM PSBL INVOF BAY/ERN SHORE AND OVR
THE OCN. PARTLY CLOUDY-SKC OVRNGT W/ TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
U60S-L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NE CONUS DURING THE SHORT
TERM. A WEAKNESS UNDER THE RIDGE LOCATES OVER THE MDATLC-SE
STATES...RESULTING IN WEAK FLOW ALOFT. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE
OVER ERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WILL ALLOW STRONG SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD SWD INTO NEW ENGLAND...PUSHING A BACKDOOR FRONT
INTO THE RGN FRI MRNG-AFTN. SFC WNDS TURN TO THE NE
FRI...RESULTING IN THE BEGINNINGS OF A COOL DOWN. A WARM/MOIST
AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS (SREF MLCAPE VALUES 1000-1500
J/KG) WILL REMAIN OVVR THE FA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. MORE STABLE
ALONG THE COAST DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW. HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT CHC TO
CHC POPS E AND CNTRL...BUT HAVE CONTD W/ SOLID CHANCE (40-50%) OVR
THE PIEDMONT AS WEAK S/W DROPS OVR THE RGN. VRB CLDS- PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDS W/ HI TEMPS FM THE M-U80S INVOF ERN SHORE/ALG THE CST
TO THE U80S-ARND 90F INLAND.

THE WX FM FRI NGT THROUGH SUN LOOKING MORE UNSETTLED THAN BEFORE.
PDS OF LO LVL CLDS XPCD INTO SUN W/ CONTD ENE WNDS. GUSTS UP TO
25 MPH NR THE CST LT FRI NGT. MDLS TDA ARE LESS EMPHATIC ABT DRIER
AIR MASS PUSHING SSW INTO/ACRS THE FA THIS WKND. COMBO HI PRES TO
THE NNE AND LO PRES OVR SE CONUS TO KEEP MOIST ONSHORE WNDS AND
LIKELIHOOD OF WK IMPULSES TRACKING ACRS THE FA FM THE E. WILL HAVE
20-40% POPS SAT-SUN...HIGHEST IN SE VA/NE NC. CONTD BREEZY (GUSTS
TO 25-30 MPH NR THE CST IN ERN VA/NE NC) ON SAT...LESS WND XPCD
SUN. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE M-U70S NR THE CST TO ARND 80F INLAND. LO
TEMPS SAT NGT FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F. HI TEMPS SUN FM THE U70S TO
L80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY WX WITH SFC HI PRES IN
THE VICINITY. FOR SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...NE FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE
FA AS SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVER THE NRN MID ATLC. WITH SOME MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER SE
AREAS SAT NGT. TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60S SAT NGT AND REACH ONLY
THE LO/MID 80S SUN AFTN. FLOW BCMS ELY MON THAN SLY BY TUE AND
WED AS THE HI SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LO/MID 80S MON TO MID/UPR 80S TUE
AND WED. BULK OF PCPN IS EXPECTED TO STAY S OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD WITH ANY CHANCE OF RAIN (20%) CONFINED TO EXTREME
SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION MAY INITIATE
SOME ISLOATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING. MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED CONVECTION.
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY ALONG BACKDOOR
COLDFRONT PASSAGE.

DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN SHORT AS WINDS REMAIN BLO 15 KTS THRU FRI MORNING.
WND DRCTN RTHR CHAOTIC DUE TO A LINGERING TROF TODAY. XPCT THE W-NW
FLOW THIS MORN TO BECOME ONSHORE THIS AFTRN DUE TO LCL SEA BREEZES
THEN BACK TO A VRBL DRCTN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRS REMAINS OVRHD.

MODELS PROG A 1025MB HIGH ACROSS THE GT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND
LATE FRI THRU SAT. THIS ALLOWS A BKDR CDFRNT TO PUSH S ACROSS THE
WTRS FRI AFTRN AND NIGHT. INCRG PRS GRDNT BTWN THE HIGH TO THE NRTH
AND LOW PRS DVLPNG OFF THE SERN CST WILL RESULT IN AN XTNDD PRD OF
NE WNDS THIS WKEND. LTST DATA CONTS TO SUGGEST SOLID SCA CNDTNS
ACROSS THE CSTL WTRS AND SRN CHES BAY DVLPNG N-S FRI NIGHT AND CONTG
SAT BEFORE DMNSHG SAT NIGHT.  WINDS/WAVES/SEAS CONT TO DECREASE SUN
AS THE SFC HI WEAKENS AND FLOW BCMS MORE OUT OF THE E THAN NE. WINDS
THEN TURN TO THE SE THEN S MON INTO TUE WITH SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME. HELD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE
SINCE THIS IS A 4TH-5TH PRD EVENT BUT DO XPCT SCA HEADLINES TO BE
ISSUED WITH LATER FCSTS.

IN ADDITION...THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NEARSHORE WAVES
OF 3-4 FT WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE RIP CURRENT THREAT FOR THE HOLIDAY
WKEND. GUID CONTS TO BUILD TIDES TO BTWN 1/2 TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NRML BY
SAT...BUT REMAIN BLO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...MPR/DAP
MARINE...MPR



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031855
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
255 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST
STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER SUMMERY AFTN W/ SCT CU AND HEAT INDICES RANGING THROUGH
THE 90S. MUCH LESS COVERAGE TO PCPN ATTM...AND TRENDS IN HI-RES
MDLS SUPPORTS IDEA OF LESS CONVECTION THIS EVE AS COMPARED TO WED
EVE. WILL CONT TO CARRY 20-30% FM THE BAY W THROUGH ABT
01-04Z/04...W/ ONLY AN ISOLD TSTM PSBL INVOF BAY/ERN SHORE AND OVR
THE OCN. PARTLY CLOUDY-SKC OVRNGT W/ TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
U60S-L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NE CONUS DURING THE SHORT
TERM. A WEAKNESS UNDER THE RIDGE LOCATES OVER THE MDATLC-SE
STATES...RESULTING IN WEAK FLOW ALOFT. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE
OVER ERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WILL ALLOW STRONG SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD SWD INTO NEW ENGLAND...PUSHING A BACKDOOR FRONT
INTO THE RGN FRI MRNG-AFTN. SFC WNDS TURN TO THE NE
FRI...RESULTING IN THE BEGINNINGS OF A COOL DOWN. A WARM/MOIST
AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS (SREF MLCAPE VALUES 1000-1500
J/KG) WILL REMAIN OVVR THE FA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. MORE STABLE
ALONG THE COAST DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW. HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT CHC TO
CHC POPS E AND CNTRL...BUT HAVE CONTD W/ SOLID CHANCE (40-50%) OVR
THE PIEDMONT AS WEAK S/W DROPS OVR THE RGN. VRB CLDS- PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDS W/ HI TEMPS FM THE M-U80S INVOF ERN SHORE/ALG THE CST
TO THE U80S-ARND 90F INLAND.

THE WX FM FRI NGT THROUGH SUN LOOKING MORE UNSETTLED THAN BEFORE.
PDS OF LO LVL CLDS XPCD INTO SUN W/ CONTD ENE WNDS. GUSTS UP TO
25 MPH NR THE CST LT FRI NGT. MDLS TDA ARE LESS EMPHATIC ABT DRIER
AIR MASS PUSHING SSW INTO/ACRS THE FA THIS WKND. COMBO HI PRES TO
THE NNE AND LO PRES OVR SE CONUS TO KEEP MOIST ONSHORE WNDS AND
LIKELIHOOD OF WK IMPULSES TRACKING ACRS THE FA FM THE E. WILL HAVE
20-40% POPS SAT-SUN...HIGHEST IN SE VA/NE NC. CONTD BREEZY (GUSTS
TO 25-30 MPH NR THE CST IN ERN VA/NE NC) ON SAT...LESS WND XPCD
SUN. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE M-U70S NR THE CST TO ARND 80F INLAND. LO
TEMPS SAT NGT FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F. HI TEMPS SUN FM THE U70S TO
L80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY WX WITH SFC HI PRES IN
THE VICINITY. FOR SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...NE FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE
FA AS SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVER THE NRN MID ATLC. WITH SOME MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER SE
AREAS SAT NGT. TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60S SAT NGT AND REACH ONLY
THE LO/MID 80S SUN AFTN. FLOW BCMS ELY MON THAN SLY BY TUE AND
WED AS THE HI SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LO/MID 80S MON TO MID/UPR 80S TUE
AND WED. BULK OF PCPN IS EXPECTED TO STAY S OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD WITH ANY CHANCE OF RAIN (20%) CONFINED TO EXTREME
SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION MAY INITIATE
SOME ISLOATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING. MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED CONVECTION.
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY ALONG BACKDOOR
COLDFRONT PASSAGE.

DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN SHORT AS WINDS REMAIN BLO 15 KTS THRU FRI MORNING.
WND DRCTN RTHR CHAOTIC DUE TO A LINGERING TROF TODAY. XPCT THE W-NW
FLOW THIS MORN TO BECOME ONSHORE THIS AFTRN DUE TO LCL SEA BREEZES
THEN BACK TO A VRBL DRCTN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRS REMAINS OVRHD.

MODELS PROG A 1025MB HIGH ACROSS THE GT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND
LATE FRI THRU SAT. THIS ALLOWS A BKDR CDFRNT TO PUSH S ACROSS THE
WTRS FRI AFTRN AND NIGHT. INCRG PRS GRDNT BTWN THE HIGH TO THE NRTH
AND LOW PRS DVLPNG OFF THE SERN CST WILL RESULT IN AN XTNDD PRD OF
NE WNDS THIS WKEND. LTST DATA CONTS TO SUGGEST SOLID SCA CNDTNS
ACROSS THE CSTL WTRS AND SRN CHES BAY DVLPNG N-S FRI NIGHT AND CONTG
SAT BEFORE DMNSHG SAT NIGHT.  WINDS/WAVES/SEAS CONT TO DECREASE SUN
AS THE SFC HI WEAKENS AND FLOW BCMS MORE OUT OF THE E THAN NE. WINDS
THEN TURN TO THE SE THEN S MON INTO TUE WITH SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME. HELD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE
SINCE THIS IS A 4TH-5TH PRD EVENT BUT DO XPCT SCA HEADLINES TO BE
ISSUED WITH LATER FCSTS.

IN ADDITION...THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NEARSHORE WAVES
OF 3-4 FT WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE RIP CURRENT THREAT FOR THE HOLIDAY
WKEND. GUID CONTS TO BUILD TIDES TO BTWN 1/2 TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NRML BY
SAT...BUT REMAIN BLO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...MPR/DAP
MARINE...MPR




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031854
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
254 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFTER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING...SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION FRIDAY...WITH
UNCERTAIN CONTRIBUTION FROM ANY SHORTWAVE TO HELP INCREASE STORM
COVERAGE. STILL QUITE WARM AND HUMID WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE UNDER OVERALL HIGH HEIGHTS ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS THROUGH THEN WEEKEND AS RIDGE
EXPANDS EASTWARD. LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS PA
UNDER STRENGTHENING RIDGE. LITTLE IF ANY DIURNAL SHOWERS DUE TO
THE INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. MUGGY AND QUITE WARM
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. RELIEF FROM THE
QUITE WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH COLD FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...AS WELL AS AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING. THE EXCEPTION TO VFR COULD OCCUR WITH
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS AS A VERY WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SHIFTS
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF ANY POP
UP SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED DUE TO WEAK
FLOW AND FORCING. THUS DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER IN TAFS.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR AS FOG
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE TERMINALS BY DAWN.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031854
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
254 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFTER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING...SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION FRIDAY...WITH
UNCERTAIN CONTRIBUTION FROM ANY SHORTWAVE TO HELP INCREASE STORM
COVERAGE. STILL QUITE WARM AND HUMID WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE UNDER OVERALL HIGH HEIGHTS ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS THROUGH THEN WEEKEND AS RIDGE
EXPANDS EASTWARD. LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS PA
UNDER STRENGTHENING RIDGE. LITTLE IF ANY DIURNAL SHOWERS DUE TO
THE INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. MUGGY AND QUITE WARM
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. RELIEF FROM THE
QUITE WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH COLD FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...AS WELL AS AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING. THE EXCEPTION TO VFR COULD OCCUR WITH
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS AS A VERY WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SHIFTS
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF ANY POP
UP SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED DUE TO WEAK
FLOW AND FORCING. THUS DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER IN TAFS.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR AS FOG
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE TERMINALS BY DAWN.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031854
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
254 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFTER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING...SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION FRIDAY...WITH
UNCERTAIN CONTRIBUTION FROM ANY SHORTWAVE TO HELP INCREASE STORM
COVERAGE. STILL QUITE WARM AND HUMID WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE UNDER OVERALL HIGH HEIGHTS ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS THROUGH THEN WEEKEND AS RIDGE
EXPANDS EASTWARD. LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS PA
UNDER STRENGTHENING RIDGE. LITTLE IF ANY DIURNAL SHOWERS DUE TO
THE INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. MUGGY AND QUITE WARM
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. RELIEF FROM THE
QUITE WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH COLD FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...AS WELL AS AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING. THE EXCEPTION TO VFR COULD OCCUR WITH
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS AS A VERY WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SHIFTS
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF ANY POP
UP SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED DUE TO WEAK
FLOW AND FORCING. THUS DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER IN TAFS.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR AS FOG
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE TERMINALS BY DAWN.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031830
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
230 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG/STRATUS HAVE LARGELY ERODED AS OF LATE THIS MRNG LEAVING MNLY
SKC/WARM/HUMID CONDS. SFC TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
LOCAL AREA. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SFC
TROUGH AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES TO CONT TO WARRANT ISOLD TO SCT
SHRAS/TSTMS...HIGHEST PROB FAR NW AND IN THE SE PORTIONS OF FA.
WEAK FLO/SHEAR WILL LIMIT OVERALL ORGANIZATION...HWVR LOCALLY
HEAVY RA WILL BE PSBL. XPCG HI TEMPS SIMILAR TO WED...IN THE
L-M90S (U80S RIGHT AT THE CST). HEAT INDEX VALUES TOP OUT IN THE
M-U90S. SKY AVGS MOSTLY SUNNY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS DURING THE SHORT
TERM. A WEAKNESS UNDER THE RIDGE LOCATES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...RESULTING IN WEAK FLOW ALOFT. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE OVER
ERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WILL ALLOW STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD SWD INTO NEW ENGLAND...PUSHING A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE
REGION FRI MORNING-AFTERNOON. SFC WINDS TURN TO THE NE
FRI...RESULTING IN A COOL DOWN. A WARM/MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS (SREF MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG) WILL REMAIN OVER THE
LOCAL AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. MORE STABLE ALONG THE COAST DUE
TO ONSHORE FLOW. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS EAST
AND CENTRAL...BUT INCREASED TO SOLID CHANCE OVER THE PIEDMONT AS
WEAK VORT MAXIMA DROP OVER THE REGION. WEAK FLOW AND EFF SHEAR WILL
RESULT IN LITTLE ORGANIZATION...BUT ALSO LITTLE STORM MOTION. PWATS
AROUND 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES AND CORFIDI/MBE VECTORS AOB 5 KT WILL FAVOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY IS
EXPECTED FRI THANKS TO NE SFC WINDS. THICKNESS ALSO DROP
OFF...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE MID 80S NORTH TO AROUND 90 SOUTH.
PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS WINDS
PICK UP FROM THE NE. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH NEAR THE COAST LATE FRI
NIGHT. DRIER AIR MASS USHERS INTO THE REGION SAT...LIMITING HIGHEST
POPS TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ALONG REMNANT COASTAL BOUNDARY. COOL AND
BREEZY START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S. GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH SE AND E PORTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY WX WITH SFC HI PRES IN
THE VICINITY. FOR SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...NE FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE
FA AS SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVER THE NRN MID ATLC. WITH SOME MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER SE
AREAS SAT NGT. TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60S SAT NGT AND REACH ONLY
THE LO/MID 80S SUN AFTN. FLOW BCMS ELY MON THAN SLY BY TUE AND
WED AS THE HI SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LO/MID 80S MON TO MID/UPR 80S TUE
AND WED. BULK OF PCPN IS EXPECTED TO STAY S OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD WITH ANY CHANCE OF RAIN (20%) CONFINED TO EXTREME
SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION MAY INITIATE
SOME ISLOATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING. MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED CONVECTION.
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY ALONG BACKDOOR
COLDFRONT PASSAGE.

DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN SHORT AS WINDS REMAIN BLO 15 KTS THRU FRI MORNING.
WND DRCTN RTHR CHAOTIC DUE TO A LINGERING TROF TODAY. XPCT THE W-NW
FLOW THIS MORN TO BECOME ONSHORE THIS AFTRN DUE TO LCL SEA BREEZES
THEN BACK TO A VRBL DRCTN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRS REMAINS OVRHD.

MODELS PROG A 1025MB HIGH ACROSS THE GT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND
LATE FRI THRU SAT. THIS ALLOWS A BKDR CDFRNT TO PUSH S ACROSS THE
WTRS FRI AFTRN AND NIGHT. INCRG PRS GRDNT BTWN THE HIGH TO THE NRTH
AND LOW PRS DVLPNG OFF THE SERN CST WILL RESULT IN AN XTNDD PRD OF
NE WNDS THIS WKEND. LTST DATA CONTS TO SUGGEST SOLID SCA CNDTNS
ACROSS THE CSTL WTRS AND SRN CHES BAY DVLPNG N-S FRI NIGHT AND CONTG
SAT BEFORE DMNSHG SAT NIGHT.  WINDS/WAVES/SEAS CONT TO DECREASE SUN
AS THE SFC HI WEAKENS AND FLOW BCMS MORE OUT OF THE E THAN NE. WINDS
THEN TURN TO THE SE THEN S MON INTO TUE WITH SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME. HELD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE
SINCE THIS IS A 4TH-5TH PRD EVENT BUT DO XPCT SCA HEADLINES TO BE
ISSUED WITH LATER FCSTS.

IN ADDITION...THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NEARSHORE WAVES
OF 3-4 FT WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE RIP CURRENT THREAT FOR THE HOLIDAY
WKEND. GUID CONTS TO BUILD TIDES TO BTWN 1/2 TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NRML BY
SAT...BUT REMAIN BLO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...MPR/DAP
MARINE...MPR



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031830
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
230 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG/STRATUS HAVE LARGELY ERODED AS OF LATE THIS MRNG LEAVING MNLY
SKC/WARM/HUMID CONDS. SFC TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
LOCAL AREA. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SFC
TROUGH AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES TO CONT TO WARRANT ISOLD TO SCT
SHRAS/TSTMS...HIGHEST PROB FAR NW AND IN THE SE PORTIONS OF FA.
WEAK FLO/SHEAR WILL LIMIT OVERALL ORGANIZATION...HWVR LOCALLY
HEAVY RA WILL BE PSBL. XPCG HI TEMPS SIMILAR TO WED...IN THE
L-M90S (U80S RIGHT AT THE CST). HEAT INDEX VALUES TOP OUT IN THE
M-U90S. SKY AVGS MOSTLY SUNNY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS DURING THE SHORT
TERM. A WEAKNESS UNDER THE RIDGE LOCATES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...RESULTING IN WEAK FLOW ALOFT. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE OVER
ERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WILL ALLOW STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD SWD INTO NEW ENGLAND...PUSHING A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE
REGION FRI MORNING-AFTERNOON. SFC WINDS TURN TO THE NE
FRI...RESULTING IN A COOL DOWN. A WARM/MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS (SREF MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG) WILL REMAIN OVER THE
LOCAL AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. MORE STABLE ALONG THE COAST DUE
TO ONSHORE FLOW. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS EAST
AND CENTRAL...BUT INCREASED TO SOLID CHANCE OVER THE PIEDMONT AS
WEAK VORT MAXIMA DROP OVER THE REGION. WEAK FLOW AND EFF SHEAR WILL
RESULT IN LITTLE ORGANIZATION...BUT ALSO LITTLE STORM MOTION. PWATS
AROUND 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES AND CORFIDI/MBE VECTORS AOB 5 KT WILL FAVOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY IS
EXPECTED FRI THANKS TO NE SFC WINDS. THICKNESS ALSO DROP
OFF...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE MID 80S NORTH TO AROUND 90 SOUTH.
PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS WINDS
PICK UP FROM THE NE. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH NEAR THE COAST LATE FRI
NIGHT. DRIER AIR MASS USHERS INTO THE REGION SAT...LIMITING HIGHEST
POPS TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ALONG REMNANT COASTAL BOUNDARY. COOL AND
BREEZY START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S. GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH SE AND E PORTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY WX WITH SFC HI PRES IN
THE VICINITY. FOR SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...NE FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE
FA AS SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVER THE NRN MID ATLC. WITH SOME MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER SE
AREAS SAT NGT. TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60S SAT NGT AND REACH ONLY
THE LO/MID 80S SUN AFTN. FLOW BCMS ELY MON THAN SLY BY TUE AND
WED AS THE HI SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LO/MID 80S MON TO MID/UPR 80S TUE
AND WED. BULK OF PCPN IS EXPECTED TO STAY S OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD WITH ANY CHANCE OF RAIN (20%) CONFINED TO EXTREME
SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION MAY INITIATE
SOME ISLOATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING. MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED CONVECTION.
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY ALONG BACKDOOR
COLDFRONT PASSAGE.

DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN SHORT AS WINDS REMAIN BLO 15 KTS THRU FRI MORNING.
WND DRCTN RTHR CHAOTIC DUE TO A LINGERING TROF TODAY. XPCT THE W-NW
FLOW THIS MORN TO BECOME ONSHORE THIS AFTRN DUE TO LCL SEA BREEZES
THEN BACK TO A VRBL DRCTN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRS REMAINS OVRHD.

MODELS PROG A 1025MB HIGH ACROSS THE GT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND
LATE FRI THRU SAT. THIS ALLOWS A BKDR CDFRNT TO PUSH S ACROSS THE
WTRS FRI AFTRN AND NIGHT. INCRG PRS GRDNT BTWN THE HIGH TO THE NRTH
AND LOW PRS DVLPNG OFF THE SERN CST WILL RESULT IN AN XTNDD PRD OF
NE WNDS THIS WKEND. LTST DATA CONTS TO SUGGEST SOLID SCA CNDTNS
ACROSS THE CSTL WTRS AND SRN CHES BAY DVLPNG N-S FRI NIGHT AND CONTG
SAT BEFORE DMNSHG SAT NIGHT.  WINDS/WAVES/SEAS CONT TO DECREASE SUN
AS THE SFC HI WEAKENS AND FLOW BCMS MORE OUT OF THE E THAN NE. WINDS
THEN TURN TO THE SE THEN S MON INTO TUE WITH SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME. HELD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE
SINCE THIS IS A 4TH-5TH PRD EVENT BUT DO XPCT SCA HEADLINES TO BE
ISSUED WITH LATER FCSTS.

IN ADDITION...THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NEARSHORE WAVES
OF 3-4 FT WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE RIP CURRENT THREAT FOR THE HOLIDAY
WKEND. GUID CONTS TO BUILD TIDES TO BTWN 1/2 TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NRML BY
SAT...BUT REMAIN BLO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...MPR/DAP
MARINE...MPR



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031830
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
230 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG/STRATUS HAVE LARGELY ERODED AS OF LATE THIS MRNG LEAVING MNLY
SKC/WARM/HUMID CONDS. SFC TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
LOCAL AREA. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SFC
TROUGH AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES TO CONT TO WARRANT ISOLD TO SCT
SHRAS/TSTMS...HIGHEST PROB FAR NW AND IN THE SE PORTIONS OF FA.
WEAK FLO/SHEAR WILL LIMIT OVERALL ORGANIZATION...HWVR LOCALLY
HEAVY RA WILL BE PSBL. XPCG HI TEMPS SIMILAR TO WED...IN THE
L-M90S (U80S RIGHT AT THE CST). HEAT INDEX VALUES TOP OUT IN THE
M-U90S. SKY AVGS MOSTLY SUNNY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS DURING THE SHORT
TERM. A WEAKNESS UNDER THE RIDGE LOCATES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...RESULTING IN WEAK FLOW ALOFT. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE OVER
ERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WILL ALLOW STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD SWD INTO NEW ENGLAND...PUSHING A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE
REGION FRI MORNING-AFTERNOON. SFC WINDS TURN TO THE NE
FRI...RESULTING IN A COOL DOWN. A WARM/MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS (SREF MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG) WILL REMAIN OVER THE
LOCAL AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. MORE STABLE ALONG THE COAST DUE
TO ONSHORE FLOW. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS EAST
AND CENTRAL...BUT INCREASED TO SOLID CHANCE OVER THE PIEDMONT AS
WEAK VORT MAXIMA DROP OVER THE REGION. WEAK FLOW AND EFF SHEAR WILL
RESULT IN LITTLE ORGANIZATION...BUT ALSO LITTLE STORM MOTION. PWATS
AROUND 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES AND CORFIDI/MBE VECTORS AOB 5 KT WILL FAVOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY IS
EXPECTED FRI THANKS TO NE SFC WINDS. THICKNESS ALSO DROP
OFF...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE MID 80S NORTH TO AROUND 90 SOUTH.
PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS WINDS
PICK UP FROM THE NE. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH NEAR THE COAST LATE FRI
NIGHT. DRIER AIR MASS USHERS INTO THE REGION SAT...LIMITING HIGHEST
POPS TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ALONG REMNANT COASTAL BOUNDARY. COOL AND
BREEZY START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S. GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH SE AND E PORTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY WX WITH SFC HI PRES IN
THE VICINITY. FOR SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...NE FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE
FA AS SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVER THE NRN MID ATLC. WITH SOME MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER SE
AREAS SAT NGT. TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60S SAT NGT AND REACH ONLY
THE LO/MID 80S SUN AFTN. FLOW BCMS ELY MON THAN SLY BY TUE AND
WED AS THE HI SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LO/MID 80S MON TO MID/UPR 80S TUE
AND WED. BULK OF PCPN IS EXPECTED TO STAY S OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD WITH ANY CHANCE OF RAIN (20%) CONFINED TO EXTREME
SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION MAY INITIATE
SOME ISLOATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING. MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED CONVECTION.
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY ALONG BACKDOOR
COLDFRONT PASSAGE.

DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN SHORT AS WINDS REMAIN BLO 15 KTS THRU FRI MORNING.
WND DRCTN RTHR CHAOTIC DUE TO A LINGERING TROF TODAY. XPCT THE W-NW
FLOW THIS MORN TO BECOME ONSHORE THIS AFTRN DUE TO LCL SEA BREEZES
THEN BACK TO A VRBL DRCTN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRS REMAINS OVRHD.

MODELS PROG A 1025MB HIGH ACROSS THE GT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND
LATE FRI THRU SAT. THIS ALLOWS A BKDR CDFRNT TO PUSH S ACROSS THE
WTRS FRI AFTRN AND NIGHT. INCRG PRS GRDNT BTWN THE HIGH TO THE NRTH
AND LOW PRS DVLPNG OFF THE SERN CST WILL RESULT IN AN XTNDD PRD OF
NE WNDS THIS WKEND. LTST DATA CONTS TO SUGGEST SOLID SCA CNDTNS
ACROSS THE CSTL WTRS AND SRN CHES BAY DVLPNG N-S FRI NIGHT AND CONTG
SAT BEFORE DMNSHG SAT NIGHT.  WINDS/WAVES/SEAS CONT TO DECREASE SUN
AS THE SFC HI WEAKENS AND FLOW BCMS MORE OUT OF THE E THAN NE. WINDS
THEN TURN TO THE SE THEN S MON INTO TUE WITH SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME. HELD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE
SINCE THIS IS A 4TH-5TH PRD EVENT BUT DO XPCT SCA HEADLINES TO BE
ISSUED WITH LATER FCSTS.

IN ADDITION...THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NEARSHORE WAVES
OF 3-4 FT WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE RIP CURRENT THREAT FOR THE HOLIDAY
WKEND. GUID CONTS TO BUILD TIDES TO BTWN 1/2 TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NRML BY
SAT...BUT REMAIN BLO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...MPR/DAP
MARINE...MPR



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031830
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
230 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG/STRATUS HAVE LARGELY ERODED AS OF LATE THIS MRNG LEAVING MNLY
SKC/WARM/HUMID CONDS. SFC TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
LOCAL AREA. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SFC
TROUGH AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES TO CONT TO WARRANT ISOLD TO SCT
SHRAS/TSTMS...HIGHEST PROB FAR NW AND IN THE SE PORTIONS OF FA.
WEAK FLO/SHEAR WILL LIMIT OVERALL ORGANIZATION...HWVR LOCALLY
HEAVY RA WILL BE PSBL. XPCG HI TEMPS SIMILAR TO WED...IN THE
L-M90S (U80S RIGHT AT THE CST). HEAT INDEX VALUES TOP OUT IN THE
M-U90S. SKY AVGS MOSTLY SUNNY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS DURING THE SHORT
TERM. A WEAKNESS UNDER THE RIDGE LOCATES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...RESULTING IN WEAK FLOW ALOFT. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE OVER
ERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WILL ALLOW STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD SWD INTO NEW ENGLAND...PUSHING A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE
REGION FRI MORNING-AFTERNOON. SFC WINDS TURN TO THE NE
FRI...RESULTING IN A COOL DOWN. A WARM/MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS (SREF MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG) WILL REMAIN OVER THE
LOCAL AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. MORE STABLE ALONG THE COAST DUE
TO ONSHORE FLOW. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS EAST
AND CENTRAL...BUT INCREASED TO SOLID CHANCE OVER THE PIEDMONT AS
WEAK VORT MAXIMA DROP OVER THE REGION. WEAK FLOW AND EFF SHEAR WILL
RESULT IN LITTLE ORGANIZATION...BUT ALSO LITTLE STORM MOTION. PWATS
AROUND 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES AND CORFIDI/MBE VECTORS AOB 5 KT WILL FAVOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY IS
EXPECTED FRI THANKS TO NE SFC WINDS. THICKNESS ALSO DROP
OFF...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE MID 80S NORTH TO AROUND 90 SOUTH.
PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS WINDS
PICK UP FROM THE NE. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH NEAR THE COAST LATE FRI
NIGHT. DRIER AIR MASS USHERS INTO THE REGION SAT...LIMITING HIGHEST
POPS TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ALONG REMNANT COASTAL BOUNDARY. COOL AND
BREEZY START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S. GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH SE AND E PORTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY WX WITH SFC HI PRES IN
THE VICINITY. FOR SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...NE FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE
FA AS SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVER THE NRN MID ATLC. WITH SOME MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER SE
AREAS SAT NGT. TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60S SAT NGT AND REACH ONLY
THE LO/MID 80S SUN AFTN. FLOW BCMS ELY MON THAN SLY BY TUE AND
WED AS THE HI SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LO/MID 80S MON TO MID/UPR 80S TUE
AND WED. BULK OF PCPN IS EXPECTED TO STAY S OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD WITH ANY CHANCE OF RAIN (20%) CONFINED TO EXTREME
SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION MAY INITIATE
SOME ISLOATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING. MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED CONVECTION.
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY ALONG BACKDOOR
COLDFRONT PASSAGE.

DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN SHORT AS WINDS REMAIN BLO 15 KTS THRU FRI MORNING.
WND DRCTN RTHR CHAOTIC DUE TO A LINGERING TROF TODAY. XPCT THE W-NW
FLOW THIS MORN TO BECOME ONSHORE THIS AFTRN DUE TO LCL SEA BREEZES
THEN BACK TO A VRBL DRCTN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRS REMAINS OVRHD.

MODELS PROG A 1025MB HIGH ACROSS THE GT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND
LATE FRI THRU SAT. THIS ALLOWS A BKDR CDFRNT TO PUSH S ACROSS THE
WTRS FRI AFTRN AND NIGHT. INCRG PRS GRDNT BTWN THE HIGH TO THE NRTH
AND LOW PRS DVLPNG OFF THE SERN CST WILL RESULT IN AN XTNDD PRD OF
NE WNDS THIS WKEND. LTST DATA CONTS TO SUGGEST SOLID SCA CNDTNS
ACROSS THE CSTL WTRS AND SRN CHES BAY DVLPNG N-S FRI NIGHT AND CONTG
SAT BEFORE DMNSHG SAT NIGHT.  WINDS/WAVES/SEAS CONT TO DECREASE SUN
AS THE SFC HI WEAKENS AND FLOW BCMS MORE OUT OF THE E THAN NE. WINDS
THEN TURN TO THE SE THEN S MON INTO TUE WITH SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME. HELD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE
SINCE THIS IS A 4TH-5TH PRD EVENT BUT DO XPCT SCA HEADLINES TO BE
ISSUED WITH LATER FCSTS.

IN ADDITION...THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NEARSHORE WAVES
OF 3-4 FT WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE RIP CURRENT THREAT FOR THE HOLIDAY
WKEND. GUID CONTS TO BUILD TIDES TO BTWN 1/2 TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NRML BY
SAT...BUT REMAIN BLO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...MPR/DAP
MARINE...MPR



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031830
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
230 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG/STRATUS HAVE LARGELY ERODED AS OF LATE THIS MRNG LEAVING MNLY
SKC/WARM/HUMID CONDS. SFC TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
LOCAL AREA. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SFC
TROUGH AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES TO CONT TO WARRANT ISOLD TO SCT
SHRAS/TSTMS...HIGHEST PROB FAR NW AND IN THE SE PORTIONS OF FA.
WEAK FLO/SHEAR WILL LIMIT OVERALL ORGANIZATION...HWVR LOCALLY
HEAVY RA WILL BE PSBL. XPCG HI TEMPS SIMILAR TO WED...IN THE
L-M90S (U80S RIGHT AT THE CST). HEAT INDEX VALUES TOP OUT IN THE
M-U90S. SKY AVGS MOSTLY SUNNY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS DURING THE SHORT
TERM. A WEAKNESS UNDER THE RIDGE LOCATES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...RESULTING IN WEAK FLOW ALOFT. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE OVER
ERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WILL ALLOW STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD SWD INTO NEW ENGLAND...PUSHING A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE
REGION FRI MORNING-AFTERNOON. SFC WINDS TURN TO THE NE
FRI...RESULTING IN A COOL DOWN. A WARM/MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS (SREF MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG) WILL REMAIN OVER THE
LOCAL AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. MORE STABLE ALONG THE COAST DUE
TO ONSHORE FLOW. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS EAST
AND CENTRAL...BUT INCREASED TO SOLID CHANCE OVER THE PIEDMONT AS
WEAK VORT MAXIMA DROP OVER THE REGION. WEAK FLOW AND EFF SHEAR WILL
RESULT IN LITTLE ORGANIZATION...BUT ALSO LITTLE STORM MOTION. PWATS
AROUND 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES AND CORFIDI/MBE VECTORS AOB 5 KT WILL FAVOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY IS
EXPECTED FRI THANKS TO NE SFC WINDS. THICKNESS ALSO DROP
OFF...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE MID 80S NORTH TO AROUND 90 SOUTH.
PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS WINDS
PICK UP FROM THE NE. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH NEAR THE COAST LATE FRI
NIGHT. DRIER AIR MASS USHERS INTO THE REGION SAT...LIMITING HIGHEST
POPS TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ALONG REMNANT COASTAL BOUNDARY. COOL AND
BREEZY START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S. GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH SE AND E PORTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY WX WITH SFC HI PRES IN
THE VICINITY. FOR SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...NE FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE
FA AS SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVER THE NRN MID ATLC. WITH SOME MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER SE
AREAS SAT NGT. TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60S SAT NGT AND REACH ONLY
THE LO/MID 80S SUN AFTN. FLOW BCMS ELY MON THAN SLY BY TUE AND
WED AS THE HI SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LO/MID 80S MON TO MID/UPR 80S TUE
AND WED. BULK OF PCPN IS EXPECTED TO STAY S OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD WITH ANY CHANCE OF RAIN (20%) CONFINED TO EXTREME
SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION MAY INITIATE
SOME ISLOATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING. MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED CONVECTION.
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY ALONG BACKDOOR
COLDFRONT PASSAGE.

DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN SHORT AS WINDS REMAIN BLO 15 KTS THRU FRI MORNING.
WND DRCTN RTHR CHAOTIC DUE TO A LINGERING TROF TODAY. XPCT THE W-NW
FLOW THIS MORN TO BECOME ONSHORE THIS AFTRN DUE TO LCL SEA BREEZES
THEN BACK TO A VRBL DRCTN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRS REMAINS OVRHD.

MODELS PROG A 1025MB HIGH ACROSS THE GT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND
LATE FRI THRU SAT. THIS ALLOWS A BKDR CDFRNT TO PUSH S ACROSS THE
WTRS FRI AFTRN AND NIGHT. INCRG PRS GRDNT BTWN THE HIGH TO THE NRTH
AND LOW PRS DVLPNG OFF THE SERN CST WILL RESULT IN AN XTNDD PRD OF
NE WNDS THIS WKEND. LTST DATA CONTS TO SUGGEST SOLID SCA CNDTNS
ACROSS THE CSTL WTRS AND SRN CHES BAY DVLPNG N-S FRI NIGHT AND CONTG
SAT BEFORE DMNSHG SAT NIGHT.  WINDS/WAVES/SEAS CONT TO DECREASE SUN
AS THE SFC HI WEAKENS AND FLOW BCMS MORE OUT OF THE E THAN NE. WINDS
THEN TURN TO THE SE THEN S MON INTO TUE WITH SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME. HELD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE
SINCE THIS IS A 4TH-5TH PRD EVENT BUT DO XPCT SCA HEADLINES TO BE
ISSUED WITH LATER FCSTS.

IN ADDITION...THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NEARSHORE WAVES
OF 3-4 FT WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE RIP CURRENT THREAT FOR THE HOLIDAY
WKEND. GUID CONTS TO BUILD TIDES TO BTWN 1/2 TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NRML BY
SAT...BUT REMAIN BLO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...MPR/DAP
MARINE...MPR




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031725
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
125 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAIN CHANGES FOR REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING WAS TO RAISE
MAX TEMPS ANOTHER 1 TO 2 DEGREES AND LOWER POPS. SHORTWAVE OVER
MICHIGAN IS MOVING ALMOST DUE EAST AND DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
FACTOR FOR PRODUCING ANY SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. DRY AIR IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS ALSO HOLDING BACK CU FORMATION SOMEWHAT WITH
ONLY FLAT FAIR WX CU THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE MOST PART. WITH
INCREASED AFTERNOON SUNSHINE HAVE UPPED MAX TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT
READINGS.

AFTER ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING SHOULD BE
ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION
FRIDAY...WITH UNCERTAIN CONTRIBUTION FROM ANY SHORTWAVE TO HELP
INCREASE STORM COVERAGE. STILL QUITE WARM AND HUMID WITH TEMPERATURES
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ON SATURDAY AS RIDGE EXPANDS
EASTWARD. LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS PA UNDER
STRENGTHENING RIDGE. DON`T EXPECT ANY DIURNAL ACTIVITY
SATURDAY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE.

MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH COLD FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING. THE EXCEPTION TO VFR COULD OCCUR WITH
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS AS A VERY WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SHIFTS
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF ANY POP
UP SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED DUE TO WEAK
FLOW AND FORCING. THUS DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER IN TAFS.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR AS FOG
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE TERMINALS BY DAWN.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031725
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
125 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAIN CHANGES FOR REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING WAS TO RAISE
MAX TEMPS ANOTHER 1 TO 2 DEGREES AND LOWER POPS. SHORTWAVE OVER
MICHIGAN IS MOVING ALMOST DUE EAST AND DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
FACTOR FOR PRODUCING ANY SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. DRY AIR IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS ALSO HOLDING BACK CU FORMATION SOMEWHAT WITH
ONLY FLAT FAIR WX CU THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE MOST PART. WITH
INCREASED AFTERNOON SUNSHINE HAVE UPPED MAX TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT
READINGS.

AFTER ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING SHOULD BE
ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION
FRIDAY...WITH UNCERTAIN CONTRIBUTION FROM ANY SHORTWAVE TO HELP
INCREASE STORM COVERAGE. STILL QUITE WARM AND HUMID WITH TEMPERATURES
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ON SATURDAY AS RIDGE EXPANDS
EASTWARD. LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS PA UNDER
STRENGTHENING RIDGE. DON`T EXPECT ANY DIURNAL ACTIVITY
SATURDAY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE.

MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH COLD FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING. THE EXCEPTION TO VFR COULD OCCUR WITH
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS AS A VERY WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SHIFTS
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF ANY POP
UP SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED DUE TO WEAK
FLOW AND FORCING. THUS DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER IN TAFS.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR AS FOG
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE TERMINALS BY DAWN.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031725
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
125 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAIN CHANGES FOR REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING WAS TO RAISE
MAX TEMPS ANOTHER 1 TO 2 DEGREES AND LOWER POPS. SHORTWAVE OVER
MICHIGAN IS MOVING ALMOST DUE EAST AND DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
FACTOR FOR PRODUCING ANY SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. DRY AIR IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS ALSO HOLDING BACK CU FORMATION SOMEWHAT WITH
ONLY FLAT FAIR WX CU THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE MOST PART. WITH
INCREASED AFTERNOON SUNSHINE HAVE UPPED MAX TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT
READINGS.

AFTER ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING SHOULD BE
ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION
FRIDAY...WITH UNCERTAIN CONTRIBUTION FROM ANY SHORTWAVE TO HELP
INCREASE STORM COVERAGE. STILL QUITE WARM AND HUMID WITH TEMPERATURES
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ON SATURDAY AS RIDGE EXPANDS
EASTWARD. LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS PA UNDER
STRENGTHENING RIDGE. DON`T EXPECT ANY DIURNAL ACTIVITY
SATURDAY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE.

MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH COLD FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING. THE EXCEPTION TO VFR COULD OCCUR WITH
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS AS A VERY WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SHIFTS
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF ANY POP
UP SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED DUE TO WEAK
FLOW AND FORCING. THUS DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER IN TAFS.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR AS FOG
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE TERMINALS BY DAWN.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031725
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
125 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAIN CHANGES FOR REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING WAS TO RAISE
MAX TEMPS ANOTHER 1 TO 2 DEGREES AND LOWER POPS. SHORTWAVE OVER
MICHIGAN IS MOVING ALMOST DUE EAST AND DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
FACTOR FOR PRODUCING ANY SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. DRY AIR IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS ALSO HOLDING BACK CU FORMATION SOMEWHAT WITH
ONLY FLAT FAIR WX CU THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE MOST PART. WITH
INCREASED AFTERNOON SUNSHINE HAVE UPPED MAX TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT
READINGS.

AFTER ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING SHOULD BE
ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION
FRIDAY...WITH UNCERTAIN CONTRIBUTION FROM ANY SHORTWAVE TO HELP
INCREASE STORM COVERAGE. STILL QUITE WARM AND HUMID WITH TEMPERATURES
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ON SATURDAY AS RIDGE EXPANDS
EASTWARD. LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS PA UNDER
STRENGTHENING RIDGE. DON`T EXPECT ANY DIURNAL ACTIVITY
SATURDAY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE.

MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH COLD FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING. THE EXCEPTION TO VFR COULD OCCUR WITH
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS AS A VERY WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SHIFTS
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF ANY POP
UP SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED DUE TO WEAK
FLOW AND FORCING. THUS DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER IN TAFS.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR AS FOG
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE TERMINALS BY DAWN.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031725
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
125 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAIN CHANGES FOR REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING WAS TO RAISE
MAX TEMPS ANOTHER 1 TO 2 DEGREES AND LOWER POPS. SHORTWAVE OVER
MICHIGAN IS MOVING ALMOST DUE EAST AND DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
FACTOR FOR PRODUCING ANY SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. DRY AIR IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS ALSO HOLDING BACK CU FORMATION SOMEWHAT WITH
ONLY FLAT FAIR WX CU THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE MOST PART. WITH
INCREASED AFTERNOON SUNSHINE HAVE UPPED MAX TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT
READINGS.

AFTER ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING SHOULD BE
ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION
FRIDAY...WITH UNCERTAIN CONTRIBUTION FROM ANY SHORTWAVE TO HELP
INCREASE STORM COVERAGE. STILL QUITE WARM AND HUMID WITH TEMPERATURES
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ON SATURDAY AS RIDGE EXPANDS
EASTWARD. LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS PA UNDER
STRENGTHENING RIDGE. DON`T EXPECT ANY DIURNAL ACTIVITY
SATURDAY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE.

MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH COLD FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING. THE EXCEPTION TO VFR COULD OCCUR WITH
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS AS A VERY WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SHIFTS
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF ANY POP
UP SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED DUE TO WEAK
FLOW AND FORCING. THUS DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER IN TAFS.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR AS FOG
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE TERMINALS BY DAWN.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPHI 031533
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1133 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS THEN
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY ARRIVE LATER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A PRESSURE TROUGH WAS LOCATED NEAR CAPE CODE, EXTENDING
SOUTHEASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NJ AND DELMARVA COAST. A LEE SURFACE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP INLAND THIS AFTERNOON NEAR I-95 WHERE
NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS CONVERGE WITH
ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE INLAND MOVING SEA-BREEZE.

SKIES WILL REMAIN SUNNY THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING BEFORE CU
FIELD DEVELOPS DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. IT
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THRU AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. MADE SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE POP/WX GRIDS FOR TODAY BY CONFINING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FAR SOUTHERN AND FAR NORTHERN ZONES. ACROSS
THE LOWER DELMARVA, ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HIGHER INSTABILITY,
WHICH MAY YIELD AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE ALSO HIGHLIGHTED IN
NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ. THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION UP THERE
WILL BE TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS AS WELL AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THAT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM UPSTATE NY. THIS ACTIVITY IS
FAVORED LATE IN THE DAY DUE TO A DELAYED ARRIVAL OF THIS FRONT.

THE LATE SEASON HEAT WILL CONTINUE ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA (EXCEPT COOLER NEAR THE COAST
AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST PA/NORTHWEST NJ). THE
HEAT INDEX MAY TOP OFF IN THE 94-96F RANGE FOR THE HOT SPOTS
WITHIN THE URBAN I-95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY TONIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AND WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH IS ANTICIPATED TO
DROP THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
ENHANCE OUR CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
STABILIZE GRADUALLY DURING THE NIGHT.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A RIDGE SLIDING EASTWARD OVER
OUR AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO
FLATTEN OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. OVERALL, THIS PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR
WARMTH AND DRYNESS ALTHOUGH A BRIEF BREAK OCCURS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE REGION NEEDS
RAIN, HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THE CHCS ARE RATHER LOW GIVEN NO
ORGANIZED SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH. WE USED A MODEL/CONTINUITY BLEND
FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY, WITH A 00Z WPC GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY BLEND
THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE AFTER ADDITIONAL
COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE SHIFTING
WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD THEREFORE BE
SHIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD WITH TIME AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
TO BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BEING FROM THE EAST OR NORTHEAST, AND WITH MORE OF AN OCEAN
INFLUENCE SOME COOLING OF THE AIR MASS IS ANTICIPATED. THE DRIER
AIR MAY WIN OUT AND THEREFORE DESPITE THE ONSHORE FLOW WE SHOULD
HAVE SOME DECREASE IN THE CLOUDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AREAS. HOWEVER IF THE TRANSITION IS DELAYED OR IS NOT CLEAN LIKE
SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS, THEN A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS MAY BE
POSSIBLE BEFORE THE DRIER AIR PRESSES FARTHER SOUTH. IF THIS WERE
TO OCCUR, THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SHOULD
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHC. SINCE THE PROSPECTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS ON THE LOWER SIDE, WE KEPT THE POPS AT OR BELOW
LOW CHC, WITH THE BETTER CHC LOOKING LIKE THE WESTERN ZONES TO
PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A WINDOW WHERE
BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE IDEA
OF MORE CLOUDINESS/LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WAS INCORPORATED INTO THE
SKY GRIDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT, MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CRESTS ACROSS
THE AREA, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EASE EASTWARD. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE ONSHORE FLOW TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY.
THERE COULD BE SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES TO START SATURDAY DEPENDING ON THE DRY AIR PUSH,
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED ATTM. WE START TO
LOSE THE COOLER ONSHORE INFLUENCE, AND THEREFORE THE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO REBOUND SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING NEAR
THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER SHOULD FLATTEN THE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALSO
FORCE HIGH PRESSURE MORE OFFSHORE, AND A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
GRADUALLY SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY LOOKS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY, THEREFORE THE
CHCS FOR CONVECTION SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN TO OUR WEST. SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING WELL INTO
CANADA AS A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE MIDWEST
WEDNESDAY. IT IS A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH THIS FEATURE THAT MAY END
UP MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA LATER WEDNESDAY. THERE IS MORE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES THIS FAR OUT. GIVEN
THE LINGERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, A SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE SURFACE FRONT MAY RESULT. AS THE FLOW IS MORE SOUTHERLY, A
RATHER WARM AIR MASS LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE WITH SOME INCREASE IN
THE DEW POINTS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR THRU THE AFTN AND INTO THE EVE. SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT WITH FOG.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF
ABE AND RDG TERMINALS AFTER 18Z TODAY BEFORE THE ACTIVITY DECAYS
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER, THE
CHANCE OF ANY OF OUR TAF SITES BEING AFFECTED IS LOW AND WE WILL
NOT MENTION THE POTENTIAL IN THE TAF PRODUCTS.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO FAVOR THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST FOR TODAY
AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. HOWEVER, A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INLAND FROM THE OCEAN AND IT SHOULD AFFECT KACY THIS
AFTERNOON BRINGING THE WIND AROUND TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST THERE.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THIS EVENING SHOULD BECOME NORTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTH. WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR OVERALL. SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR THE KPHL AREA ON WEST AND SOUTH. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUD /MVFR/ DEVELOPMENT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT KRDG TO KPHL TO KACY
ON SOUTHWARD, HOWEVER THIS IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
EAST- NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS, WITH SOME GUSTINESS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY
10- 15 KNOTS SATURDAY, DIMINISHING AND BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY
SUNDAY BEFORE TURNING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING BEFORE IT DRIFTS INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT.

THE WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO BE VARIABLE THIS MORNING BEFORE
SETTLING INTO THE SOUTHEAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.
THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT.
SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS ARE FORECAST TO BE 1 TO 2 FEET
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH WAVES ON DELAWARE BAY BEING 2
FT OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES THROUGH, THE
WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AND INCREASE. IT
APPEARS THAT GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS OCCUR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON
THE COASTAL WATERS LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE A DECREASE BEGINS. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LOOKS TO BE NEEDED. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO BUILD THE SEAS TO
AROUND 5 FEET STARTING LATE FRIDAY ON THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THEY SHIFT FROM EAST-NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH. THE SEAS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW HIGH THEY GET
ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE THREAT FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL BE ENHANCED FRIDAY AND
THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY WEEKEND. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SURGE BEHIND
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OF 10 TO 15 KT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY MORNING
AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT FRIDAY AFTERNOON THRU SATURDAY. WAVES
WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE TO THIS WIND SURGE, FORECASTED TO INCREASE
TO 4-7 FT BY LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY. THE WINDS AND WAVES ALONG THE
COAST SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SUBJECT
TO CHANGE SEVERAL DAYS OUT, BUT IN-HOUSE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A
MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FRIDAY AND MODERATE TO POSSIBLY NEAR
HIGH FOR SATURDAY. THE RISK SHOULD SUBSIDE A BIT BY SUNDAY BUT IT
MAY STILL BE MODERATE.

IT IS PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT FOR SAFETY AWARENESS TO SHARE THIS
INFORMATION TO BEACHGOERS AND LIFEGUARDS WITH THE BEACH CROWD
ANTICIPATED TO BE LARGER THAN NORMAL GIVEN IT`S LABOR DAY WEEKEND
AND THERE IS PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO/KLEIN
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO/KLEIN
RIP CURRENTS...KLEIN




000
FXUS61 KPHI 031533
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1133 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS THEN
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY ARRIVE LATER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A PRESSURE TROUGH WAS LOCATED NEAR CAPE CODE, EXTENDING
SOUTHEASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NJ AND DELMARVA COAST. A LEE SURFACE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP INLAND THIS AFTERNOON NEAR I-95 WHERE
NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS CONVERGE WITH
ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE INLAND MOVING SEA-BREEZE.

SKIES WILL REMAIN SUNNY THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING BEFORE CU
FIELD DEVELOPS DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. IT
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THRU AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. MADE SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE POP/WX GRIDS FOR TODAY BY CONFINING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FAR SOUTHERN AND FAR NORTHERN ZONES. ACROSS
THE LOWER DELMARVA, ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HIGHER INSTABILITY,
WHICH MAY YIELD AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE ALSO HIGHLIGHTED IN
NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ. THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION UP THERE
WILL BE TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS AS WELL AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THAT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM UPSTATE NY. THIS ACTIVITY IS
FAVORED LATE IN THE DAY DUE TO A DELAYED ARRIVAL OF THIS FRONT.

THE LATE SEASON HEAT WILL CONTINUE ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA (EXCEPT COOLER NEAR THE COAST
AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST PA/NORTHWEST NJ). THE
HEAT INDEX MAY TOP OFF IN THE 94-96F RANGE FOR THE HOT SPOTS
WITHIN THE URBAN I-95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY TONIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AND WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH IS ANTICIPATED TO
DROP THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
ENHANCE OUR CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
STABILIZE GRADUALLY DURING THE NIGHT.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A RIDGE SLIDING EASTWARD OVER
OUR AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO
FLATTEN OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. OVERALL, THIS PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR
WARMTH AND DRYNESS ALTHOUGH A BRIEF BREAK OCCURS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE REGION NEEDS
RAIN, HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THE CHCS ARE RATHER LOW GIVEN NO
ORGANIZED SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH. WE USED A MODEL/CONTINUITY BLEND
FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY, WITH A 00Z WPC GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY BLEND
THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE AFTER ADDITIONAL
COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE SHIFTING
WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD THEREFORE BE
SHIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD WITH TIME AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
TO BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BEING FROM THE EAST OR NORTHEAST, AND WITH MORE OF AN OCEAN
INFLUENCE SOME COOLING OF THE AIR MASS IS ANTICIPATED. THE DRIER
AIR MAY WIN OUT AND THEREFORE DESPITE THE ONSHORE FLOW WE SHOULD
HAVE SOME DECREASE IN THE CLOUDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AREAS. HOWEVER IF THE TRANSITION IS DELAYED OR IS NOT CLEAN LIKE
SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS, THEN A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS MAY BE
POSSIBLE BEFORE THE DRIER AIR PRESSES FARTHER SOUTH. IF THIS WERE
TO OCCUR, THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SHOULD
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHC. SINCE THE PROSPECTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS ON THE LOWER SIDE, WE KEPT THE POPS AT OR BELOW
LOW CHC, WITH THE BETTER CHC LOOKING LIKE THE WESTERN ZONES TO
PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A WINDOW WHERE
BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE IDEA
OF MORE CLOUDINESS/LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WAS INCORPORATED INTO THE
SKY GRIDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT, MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CRESTS ACROSS
THE AREA, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EASE EASTWARD. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE ONSHORE FLOW TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY.
THERE COULD BE SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES TO START SATURDAY DEPENDING ON THE DRY AIR PUSH,
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED ATTM. WE START TO
LOSE THE COOLER ONSHORE INFLUENCE, AND THEREFORE THE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO REBOUND SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING NEAR
THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER SHOULD FLATTEN THE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALSO
FORCE HIGH PRESSURE MORE OFFSHORE, AND A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
GRADUALLY SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY LOOKS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY, THEREFORE THE
CHCS FOR CONVECTION SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN TO OUR WEST. SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING WELL INTO
CANADA AS A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE MIDWEST
WEDNESDAY. IT IS A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH THIS FEATURE THAT MAY END
UP MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA LATER WEDNESDAY. THERE IS MORE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES THIS FAR OUT. GIVEN
THE LINGERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, A SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE SURFACE FRONT MAY RESULT. AS THE FLOW IS MORE SOUTHERLY, A
RATHER WARM AIR MASS LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE WITH SOME INCREASE IN
THE DEW POINTS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR THRU THE AFTN AND INTO THE EVE. SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT WITH FOG.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF
ABE AND RDG TERMINALS AFTER 18Z TODAY BEFORE THE ACTIVITY DECAYS
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER, THE
CHANCE OF ANY OF OUR TAF SITES BEING AFFECTED IS LOW AND WE WILL
NOT MENTION THE POTENTIAL IN THE TAF PRODUCTS.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO FAVOR THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST FOR TODAY
AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. HOWEVER, A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INLAND FROM THE OCEAN AND IT SHOULD AFFECT KACY THIS
AFTERNOON BRINGING THE WIND AROUND TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST THERE.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THIS EVENING SHOULD BECOME NORTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTH. WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR OVERALL. SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR THE KPHL AREA ON WEST AND SOUTH. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUD /MVFR/ DEVELOPMENT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT KRDG TO KPHL TO KACY
ON SOUTHWARD, HOWEVER THIS IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
EAST- NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS, WITH SOME GUSTINESS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY
10- 15 KNOTS SATURDAY, DIMINISHING AND BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY
SUNDAY BEFORE TURNING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING BEFORE IT DRIFTS INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT.

THE WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO BE VARIABLE THIS MORNING BEFORE
SETTLING INTO THE SOUTHEAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.
THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT.
SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS ARE FORECAST TO BE 1 TO 2 FEET
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH WAVES ON DELAWARE BAY BEING 2
FT OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES THROUGH, THE
WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AND INCREASE. IT
APPEARS THAT GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS OCCUR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON
THE COASTAL WATERS LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE A DECREASE BEGINS. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LOOKS TO BE NEEDED. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO BUILD THE SEAS TO
AROUND 5 FEET STARTING LATE FRIDAY ON THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THEY SHIFT FROM EAST-NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH. THE SEAS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW HIGH THEY GET
ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE THREAT FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL BE ENHANCED FRIDAY AND
THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY WEEKEND. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SURGE BEHIND
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OF 10 TO 15 KT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY MORNING
AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT FRIDAY AFTERNOON THRU SATURDAY. WAVES
WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE TO THIS WIND SURGE, FORECASTED TO INCREASE
TO 4-7 FT BY LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY. THE WINDS AND WAVES ALONG THE
COAST SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SUBJECT
TO CHANGE SEVERAL DAYS OUT, BUT IN-HOUSE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A
MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FRIDAY AND MODERATE TO POSSIBLY NEAR
HIGH FOR SATURDAY. THE RISK SHOULD SUBSIDE A BIT BY SUNDAY BUT IT
MAY STILL BE MODERATE.

IT IS PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT FOR SAFETY AWARENESS TO SHARE THIS
INFORMATION TO BEACHGOERS AND LIFEGUARDS WITH THE BEACH CROWD
ANTICIPATED TO BE LARGER THAN NORMAL GIVEN IT`S LABOR DAY WEEKEND
AND THERE IS PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO/KLEIN
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO/KLEIN
RIP CURRENTS...KLEIN



000
FXUS61 KPHI 031533
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1133 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS THEN
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY ARRIVE LATER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A PRESSURE TROUGH WAS LOCATED NEAR CAPE CODE, EXTENDING
SOUTHEASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NJ AND DELMARVA COAST. A LEE SURFACE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP INLAND THIS AFTERNOON NEAR I-95 WHERE
NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS CONVERGE WITH
ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE INLAND MOVING SEA-BREEZE.

SKIES WILL REMAIN SUNNY THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING BEFORE CU
FIELD DEVELOPS DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. IT
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THRU AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. MADE SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE POP/WX GRIDS FOR TODAY BY CONFINING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FAR SOUTHERN AND FAR NORTHERN ZONES. ACROSS
THE LOWER DELMARVA, ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HIGHER INSTABILITY,
WHICH MAY YIELD AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE ALSO HIGHLIGHTED IN
NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ. THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION UP THERE
WILL BE TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS AS WELL AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THAT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM UPSTATE NY. THIS ACTIVITY IS
FAVORED LATE IN THE DAY DUE TO A DELAYED ARRIVAL OF THIS FRONT.

THE LATE SEASON HEAT WILL CONTINUE ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA (EXCEPT COOLER NEAR THE COAST
AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST PA/NORTHWEST NJ). THE
HEAT INDEX MAY TOP OFF IN THE 94-96F RANGE FOR THE HOT SPOTS
WITHIN THE URBAN I-95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY TONIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AND WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH IS ANTICIPATED TO
DROP THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
ENHANCE OUR CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
STABILIZE GRADUALLY DURING THE NIGHT.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A RIDGE SLIDING EASTWARD OVER
OUR AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO
FLATTEN OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. OVERALL, THIS PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR
WARMTH AND DRYNESS ALTHOUGH A BRIEF BREAK OCCURS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE REGION NEEDS
RAIN, HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THE CHCS ARE RATHER LOW GIVEN NO
ORGANIZED SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH. WE USED A MODEL/CONTINUITY BLEND
FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY, WITH A 00Z WPC GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY BLEND
THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE AFTER ADDITIONAL
COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE SHIFTING
WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD THEREFORE BE
SHIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD WITH TIME AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
TO BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BEING FROM THE EAST OR NORTHEAST, AND WITH MORE OF AN OCEAN
INFLUENCE SOME COOLING OF THE AIR MASS IS ANTICIPATED. THE DRIER
AIR MAY WIN OUT AND THEREFORE DESPITE THE ONSHORE FLOW WE SHOULD
HAVE SOME DECREASE IN THE CLOUDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AREAS. HOWEVER IF THE TRANSITION IS DELAYED OR IS NOT CLEAN LIKE
SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS, THEN A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS MAY BE
POSSIBLE BEFORE THE DRIER AIR PRESSES FARTHER SOUTH. IF THIS WERE
TO OCCUR, THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SHOULD
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHC. SINCE THE PROSPECTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS ON THE LOWER SIDE, WE KEPT THE POPS AT OR BELOW
LOW CHC, WITH THE BETTER CHC LOOKING LIKE THE WESTERN ZONES TO
PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A WINDOW WHERE
BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE IDEA
OF MORE CLOUDINESS/LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WAS INCORPORATED INTO THE
SKY GRIDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT, MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CRESTS ACROSS
THE AREA, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EASE EASTWARD. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE ONSHORE FLOW TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY.
THERE COULD BE SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES TO START SATURDAY DEPENDING ON THE DRY AIR PUSH,
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED ATTM. WE START TO
LOSE THE COOLER ONSHORE INFLUENCE, AND THEREFORE THE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO REBOUND SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING NEAR
THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER SHOULD FLATTEN THE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALSO
FORCE HIGH PRESSURE MORE OFFSHORE, AND A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
GRADUALLY SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY LOOKS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY, THEREFORE THE
CHCS FOR CONVECTION SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN TO OUR WEST. SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING WELL INTO
CANADA AS A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE MIDWEST
WEDNESDAY. IT IS A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH THIS FEATURE THAT MAY END
UP MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA LATER WEDNESDAY. THERE IS MORE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES THIS FAR OUT. GIVEN
THE LINGERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, A SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE SURFACE FRONT MAY RESULT. AS THE FLOW IS MORE SOUTHERLY, A
RATHER WARM AIR MASS LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE WITH SOME INCREASE IN
THE DEW POINTS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR THRU THE AFTN AND INTO THE EVE. SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT WITH FOG.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF
ABE AND RDG TERMINALS AFTER 18Z TODAY BEFORE THE ACTIVITY DECAYS
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER, THE
CHANCE OF ANY OF OUR TAF SITES BEING AFFECTED IS LOW AND WE WILL
NOT MENTION THE POTENTIAL IN THE TAF PRODUCTS.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO FAVOR THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST FOR TODAY
AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. HOWEVER, A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INLAND FROM THE OCEAN AND IT SHOULD AFFECT KACY THIS
AFTERNOON BRINGING THE WIND AROUND TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST THERE.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THIS EVENING SHOULD BECOME NORTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTH. WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR OVERALL. SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR THE KPHL AREA ON WEST AND SOUTH. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUD /MVFR/ DEVELOPMENT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT KRDG TO KPHL TO KACY
ON SOUTHWARD, HOWEVER THIS IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
EAST- NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS, WITH SOME GUSTINESS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY
10- 15 KNOTS SATURDAY, DIMINISHING AND BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY
SUNDAY BEFORE TURNING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING BEFORE IT DRIFTS INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT.

THE WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO BE VARIABLE THIS MORNING BEFORE
SETTLING INTO THE SOUTHEAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.
THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT.
SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS ARE FORECAST TO BE 1 TO 2 FEET
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH WAVES ON DELAWARE BAY BEING 2
FT OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES THROUGH, THE
WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AND INCREASE. IT
APPEARS THAT GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS OCCUR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON
THE COASTAL WATERS LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE A DECREASE BEGINS. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LOOKS TO BE NEEDED. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO BUILD THE SEAS TO
AROUND 5 FEET STARTING LATE FRIDAY ON THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THEY SHIFT FROM EAST-NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH. THE SEAS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW HIGH THEY GET
ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE THREAT FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL BE ENHANCED FRIDAY AND
THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY WEEKEND. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SURGE BEHIND
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OF 10 TO 15 KT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY MORNING
AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT FRIDAY AFTERNOON THRU SATURDAY. WAVES
WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE TO THIS WIND SURGE, FORECASTED TO INCREASE
TO 4-7 FT BY LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY. THE WINDS AND WAVES ALONG THE
COAST SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SUBJECT
TO CHANGE SEVERAL DAYS OUT, BUT IN-HOUSE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A
MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FRIDAY AND MODERATE TO POSSIBLY NEAR
HIGH FOR SATURDAY. THE RISK SHOULD SUBSIDE A BIT BY SUNDAY BUT IT
MAY STILL BE MODERATE.

IT IS PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT FOR SAFETY AWARENESS TO SHARE THIS
INFORMATION TO BEACHGOERS AND LIFEGUARDS WITH THE BEACH CROWD
ANTICIPATED TO BE LARGER THAN NORMAL GIVEN IT`S LABOR DAY WEEKEND
AND THERE IS PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO/KLEIN
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO/KLEIN
RIP CURRENTS...KLEIN




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031447
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1047 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING AS MAIN SHORTWAVE
ALOFT OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN MOVES SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON HELPING
KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON. VERY WEAK MODEL
WIND PROFILE WITH SLOW MOVING...RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED STORMS
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS FOR A TIME. BUMPED UP MAX TEMPERATURES A
BIT BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND SLOWER TO MATERIALIZE CU.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUES ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF PIT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ON SATURDAY AS RIDGE EXPANDS
EASTWARD. LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS PA UNDER
STRENGTHENING RIDGE. DON`T EXPECT ANY DIURNAL ACTIVITY
SATURDAY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE.

MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH COLD FRONT LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL
AGAIN BE EXCEEDINGLY LIGHT AS STEERING FLOW IS VERY WEAK.
ADDITIONALLY...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY TRANSLATES TO
THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED
AND TIMING FAR FROM CERTAIN...SO INCLUSION IN THE CODED FORECASTS
IS PRECLUDED. FRIES

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031447
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1047 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING AS MAIN SHORTWAVE
ALOFT OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN MOVES SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON HELPING
KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON. VERY WEAK MODEL
WIND PROFILE WITH SLOW MOVING...RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED STORMS
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS FOR A TIME. BUMPED UP MAX TEMPERATURES A
BIT BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND SLOWER TO MATERIALIZE CU.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUES ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF PIT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ON SATURDAY AS RIDGE EXPANDS
EASTWARD. LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS PA UNDER
STRENGTHENING RIDGE. DON`T EXPECT ANY DIURNAL ACTIVITY
SATURDAY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE.

MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH COLD FRONT LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL
AGAIN BE EXCEEDINGLY LIGHT AS STEERING FLOW IS VERY WEAK.
ADDITIONALLY...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY TRANSLATES TO
THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED
AND TIMING FAR FROM CERTAIN...SO INCLUSION IN THE CODED FORECASTS
IS PRECLUDED. FRIES

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031447
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1047 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING AS MAIN SHORTWAVE
ALOFT OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN MOVES SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON HELPING
KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON. VERY WEAK MODEL
WIND PROFILE WITH SLOW MOVING...RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED STORMS
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS FOR A TIME. BUMPED UP MAX TEMPERATURES A
BIT BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND SLOWER TO MATERIALIZE CU.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUES ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF PIT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ON SATURDAY AS RIDGE EXPANDS
EASTWARD. LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS PA UNDER
STRENGTHENING RIDGE. DON`T EXPECT ANY DIURNAL ACTIVITY
SATURDAY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE.

MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH COLD FRONT LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL
AGAIN BE EXCEEDINGLY LIGHT AS STEERING FLOW IS VERY WEAK.
ADDITIONALLY...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY TRANSLATES TO
THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED
AND TIMING FAR FROM CERTAIN...SO INCLUSION IN THE CODED FORECASTS
IS PRECLUDED. FRIES

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031447
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1047 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING AS MAIN SHORTWAVE
ALOFT OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN MOVES SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON HELPING
KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON. VERY WEAK MODEL
WIND PROFILE WITH SLOW MOVING...RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED STORMS
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS FOR A TIME. BUMPED UP MAX TEMPERATURES A
BIT BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND SLOWER TO MATERIALIZE CU.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUES ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF PIT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ON SATURDAY AS RIDGE EXPANDS
EASTWARD. LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS PA UNDER
STRENGTHENING RIDGE. DON`T EXPECT ANY DIURNAL ACTIVITY
SATURDAY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE.

MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH COLD FRONT LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL
AGAIN BE EXCEEDINGLY LIGHT AS STEERING FLOW IS VERY WEAK.
ADDITIONALLY...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY TRANSLATES TO
THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED
AND TIMING FAR FROM CERTAIN...SO INCLUSION IN THE CODED FORECASTS
IS PRECLUDED. FRIES

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031440
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1040 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG/STRATUS HAVE LARGELY ERODED AS OF LATE THIS MRNG LEAVING MNLY
SKC/WARM/HUMID CONDS. SFC TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
LOCAL AREA. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SFC
TROUGH AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES TO CONT TO WARRANT ISOLD TO SCT
SHRAS/TSTMS...HIGHEST PROB FAR NW AND IN THE SE PORTIONS OF FA.
WEAK FLO/SHEAR WILL LIMIT OVERALL ORGANIZATION...HWVR LOCALLY
HEAVY RA WILL BE PSBL. XPCG HI TEMPS SIMILAR TO WED...IN THE
L-M90S (U80S RIGHT AT THE CST). HEAT INDEX VALUES TOP OUT IN THE
M-U90S. SKY AVGS MOSTLY SUNNY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS DURING THE SHORT
TERM. A WEAKNESS UNDER THE RIDGE LOCATES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...RESULTING IN WEAK FLOW ALOFT. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE OVER
ERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WILL ALLOW STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD SWD INTO NEW ENGLAND...PUSHING A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE
REGION FRI MORNING-AFTERNOON. SFC WINDS TURN TO THE NE
FRI...RESULTING IN A COOL DOWN. A WARM/MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS (SREF MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG) WILL REMAIN OVER THE
LOCAL AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. MORE STABLE ALONG THE COAST DUE
TO ONSHORE FLOW. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS EAST
AND CENTRAL...BUT INCREASED TO SOLID CHANCE OVER THE PIEDMONT AS
WEAK VORT MAXIMA DROP OVER THE REGION. WEAK FLOW AND EFF SHEAR WILL
RESULT IN LITTLE ORGANIZATION...BUT ALSO LITTLE STORM MOTION. PWATS
AROUND 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES AND CORFIDI/MBE VECTORS AOB 5 KT WILL FAVOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY IS
EXPECTED FRI THANKS TO NE SFC WINDS. THICKNESS ALSO DROP
OFF...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE MID 80S NORTH TO AROUND 90 SOUTH.
PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS WINDS
PICK UP FROM THE NE. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH NEAR THE COAST LATE FRI
NIGHT. DRIER AIR MASS USHERS INTO THE REGION SAT...LIMITING HIGHEST
POPS TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ALONG REMNANT COASTAL BOUNDARY. COOL AND
BREEZY START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S. GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH SE AND E PORTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY WX WITH SFC HI PRES IN
THE VICINITY. FOR SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...NE FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE
FA AS SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVER THE NRN MID ATLC. WITH SOME MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER SE
AREAS SAT NGT. TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60S SAT NGT AND REACH ONLY
THE LO/MID 80S SUN AFTN. FLOW BCMS ELY MON THAN SLY BY TUE AND
WED AS THE HI SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LO/MID 80S MON TO MID/UPR 80S TUE
AND WED. BULK OF PCPN IS EXPECTED TO STAY S OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD WITH ANY CHANCE OF RAIN (20%) CONFINED TO EXTREME
SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
XPCT ANY FOG TO QUICKLY BURN OFF WITH VFR CNDTNS XPCTD THRU THE
DAY (SCT CU/CI). WNDS W-NW WNDS AOB 10 KTS THRU NOON WITH CSTL
TAF SITES SHFTG TO AN ONSHORE DRCTN DUE TO A SEA BREEZE. ONLY
ISLTD CONVECTION CHC TDY SO JUST INDCTD SCT CU FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION PSBL AGAIN FRIDAY ALONG BKDR
CDFRNT PASSAGE. DRY WEATHER AND VFR CNDTNS THROUGH THE WKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN SHORT AS WINDS REMAIN BLO 15 KTS THRU FRI MORNING.
WND DRCTN RTHR CHAOTIC DUE TO A LINGERING TROF TODAY. XPCT THE W-NW
FLOW THIS MORN TO BECOME ONSHORE THIS AFTRN DUE TO LCL SEA BREEZES
THEN BACK TO A VRBL DRCTN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRS REMAINS OVRHD.

MODELS PROG A 1025MB HIGH ACROSS THE GT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND
LATE FRI THRU SAT. THIS ALLOWS A BKDR CDFRNT TO PUSH S ACROSS THE
WTRS FRI AFTRN AND NIGHT. INCRG PRS GRDNT BTWN THE HIGH TO THE NRTH
AND LOW PRS DVLPNG OFF THE SERN CST WILL RESULT IN AN XTNDD PRD OF
NE WNDS THIS WKEND. LTST DATA CONTS TO SUGGEST SOLID SCA CNDTNS
ACROSS THE CSTL WTRS AND SRN CHES BAY DVLPNG N-S FRI NIGHT AND CONTG
SAT BEFORE DMNSHG SAT NIGHT.  WINDS/WAVES/SEAS CONT TO DECREASE SUN
AS THE SFC HI WEAKENS AND FLOW BCMS MORE OUT OF THE E THAN NE. WINDS
THEN TURN TO THE SE THEN S MON INTO TUE WITH SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME. HELD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE
SINCE THIS IS A 4TH-5TH PRD EVENT BUT DO XPCT SCA HEADLINES TO BE
ISSUED WITH LATER FCSTS.

IN ADDITION...THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NEARSHORE WAVES
OF 3-4 FT WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE RIP CURRENT THREAT FOR THE HOLIDAY
WKEND. GUID CONTS TO BUILD TIDES TO BTWN 1/2 TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NRML BY
SAT...BUT REMAIN BLO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031440
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1040 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG/STRATUS HAVE LARGELY ERODED AS OF LATE THIS MRNG LEAVING MNLY
SKC/WARM/HUMID CONDS. SFC TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
LOCAL AREA. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SFC
TROUGH AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES TO CONT TO WARRANT ISOLD TO SCT
SHRAS/TSTMS...HIGHEST PROB FAR NW AND IN THE SE PORTIONS OF FA.
WEAK FLO/SHEAR WILL LIMIT OVERALL ORGANIZATION...HWVR LOCALLY
HEAVY RA WILL BE PSBL. XPCG HI TEMPS SIMILAR TO WED...IN THE
L-M90S (U80S RIGHT AT THE CST). HEAT INDEX VALUES TOP OUT IN THE
M-U90S. SKY AVGS MOSTLY SUNNY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS DURING THE SHORT
TERM. A WEAKNESS UNDER THE RIDGE LOCATES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...RESULTING IN WEAK FLOW ALOFT. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE OVER
ERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WILL ALLOW STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD SWD INTO NEW ENGLAND...PUSHING A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE
REGION FRI MORNING-AFTERNOON. SFC WINDS TURN TO THE NE
FRI...RESULTING IN A COOL DOWN. A WARM/MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS (SREF MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG) WILL REMAIN OVER THE
LOCAL AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. MORE STABLE ALONG THE COAST DUE
TO ONSHORE FLOW. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS EAST
AND CENTRAL...BUT INCREASED TO SOLID CHANCE OVER THE PIEDMONT AS
WEAK VORT MAXIMA DROP OVER THE REGION. WEAK FLOW AND EFF SHEAR WILL
RESULT IN LITTLE ORGANIZATION...BUT ALSO LITTLE STORM MOTION. PWATS
AROUND 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES AND CORFIDI/MBE VECTORS AOB 5 KT WILL FAVOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY IS
EXPECTED FRI THANKS TO NE SFC WINDS. THICKNESS ALSO DROP
OFF...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE MID 80S NORTH TO AROUND 90 SOUTH.
PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS WINDS
PICK UP FROM THE NE. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH NEAR THE COAST LATE FRI
NIGHT. DRIER AIR MASS USHERS INTO THE REGION SAT...LIMITING HIGHEST
POPS TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ALONG REMNANT COASTAL BOUNDARY. COOL AND
BREEZY START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S. GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH SE AND E PORTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY WX WITH SFC HI PRES IN
THE VICINITY. FOR SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...NE FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE
FA AS SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVER THE NRN MID ATLC. WITH SOME MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER SE
AREAS SAT NGT. TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60S SAT NGT AND REACH ONLY
THE LO/MID 80S SUN AFTN. FLOW BCMS ELY MON THAN SLY BY TUE AND
WED AS THE HI SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LO/MID 80S MON TO MID/UPR 80S TUE
AND WED. BULK OF PCPN IS EXPECTED TO STAY S OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD WITH ANY CHANCE OF RAIN (20%) CONFINED TO EXTREME
SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
XPCT ANY FOG TO QUICKLY BURN OFF WITH VFR CNDTNS XPCTD THRU THE
DAY (SCT CU/CI). WNDS W-NW WNDS AOB 10 KTS THRU NOON WITH CSTL
TAF SITES SHFTG TO AN ONSHORE DRCTN DUE TO A SEA BREEZE. ONLY
ISLTD CONVECTION CHC TDY SO JUST INDCTD SCT CU FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION PSBL AGAIN FRIDAY ALONG BKDR
CDFRNT PASSAGE. DRY WEATHER AND VFR CNDTNS THROUGH THE WKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN SHORT AS WINDS REMAIN BLO 15 KTS THRU FRI MORNING.
WND DRCTN RTHR CHAOTIC DUE TO A LINGERING TROF TODAY. XPCT THE W-NW
FLOW THIS MORN TO BECOME ONSHORE THIS AFTRN DUE TO LCL SEA BREEZES
THEN BACK TO A VRBL DRCTN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRS REMAINS OVRHD.

MODELS PROG A 1025MB HIGH ACROSS THE GT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND
LATE FRI THRU SAT. THIS ALLOWS A BKDR CDFRNT TO PUSH S ACROSS THE
WTRS FRI AFTRN AND NIGHT. INCRG PRS GRDNT BTWN THE HIGH TO THE NRTH
AND LOW PRS DVLPNG OFF THE SERN CST WILL RESULT IN AN XTNDD PRD OF
NE WNDS THIS WKEND. LTST DATA CONTS TO SUGGEST SOLID SCA CNDTNS
ACROSS THE CSTL WTRS AND SRN CHES BAY DVLPNG N-S FRI NIGHT AND CONTG
SAT BEFORE DMNSHG SAT NIGHT.  WINDS/WAVES/SEAS CONT TO DECREASE SUN
AS THE SFC HI WEAKENS AND FLOW BCMS MORE OUT OF THE E THAN NE. WINDS
THEN TURN TO THE SE THEN S MON INTO TUE WITH SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME. HELD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE
SINCE THIS IS A 4TH-5TH PRD EVENT BUT DO XPCT SCA HEADLINES TO BE
ISSUED WITH LATER FCSTS.

IN ADDITION...THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NEARSHORE WAVES
OF 3-4 FT WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE RIP CURRENT THREAT FOR THE HOLIDAY
WKEND. GUID CONTS TO BUILD TIDES TO BTWN 1/2 TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NRML BY
SAT...BUT REMAIN BLO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR



000
FXUS61 KPHI 031411
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1011 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS THEN
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY ARRIVE LATER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A PRESSURE TROUGH WAS LOCATED NEAR CAPE CODE, EXTENDING
SOUTHEASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NJ AND DELMARVA COAST. A LEE SURFACE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP INLAND THIS AFTERNOON NEAR I-95 WHERE
NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS CONVERGE WITH
ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE INLAND MOVING SEA-BREEZE.

SKIES WILL REMAIN SUNNY THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING BEFORE CU
FIELD DEVELOPS DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. IT
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THRU AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. MADE SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE POP/WX GRIDS FOR TODAY BY CONFINING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FAR SOUTHERN AND FAR NORTHERN ZONES. ACROSS
THE LOWER DELMARVA, ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HIGHER INSTABILITY,
WHICH MAY YIELD AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE ALSO HIGHLIGHTED IN
NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ. THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION UP THERE
WILL BE TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS AS WELL AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THAT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM UPSTATE NY. THIS ACTIVITY IS
FAVORED LATE IN THE DAY DUE TO A DELAYED ARRIVAL OF THIS FRONT.

THE LATE SEASON HEAT WILL CONTINUE ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA (EXCEPT COOLER NEAR THE COAST
AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST PA/NORTHWEST NJ). THE
HEAT INDEX MAY TOP OFF IN THE 94-96F RANGE FOR THE HOT SPOTS
WITHIN THE URBAN I-95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY TONIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AND WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH IS ANTICIPATED TO
DROP THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
ENHANCE OUR CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
STABILIZE GRADUALLY DURING THE NIGHT.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A RIDGE SLIDING EASTWARD OVER
OUR AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO
FLATTEN OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. OVERALL, THIS PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR
WARMTH AND DRYNESS ALTHOUGH A BRIEF BREAK OCCURS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE REGION NEEDS
RAIN, HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THE CHCS ARE RATHER LOW GIVEN NO
ORGANIZED SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH. WE USED A MODEL/CONTINUITY BLEND
FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY, WITH A 00Z WPC GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY BLEND
THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE AFTER ADDITIONAL
COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE SHIFTING
WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD THEREFORE BE
SHIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD WITH TIME AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
TO BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BEING FROM THE EAST OR NORTHEAST, AND WITH MORE OF AN OCEAN
INFLUENCE SOME COOLING OF THE AIR MASS IS ANTICIPATED. THE DRIER
AIR MAY WIN OUT AND THEREFORE DESPITE THE ONSHORE FLOW WE SHOULD
HAVE SOME DECREASE IN THE CLOUDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AREAS. HOWEVER IF THE TRANSITION IS DELAYED OR IS NOT CLEAN LIKE
SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS, THEN A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS MAY BE
POSSIBLE BEFORE THE DRIER AIR PRESSES FARTHER SOUTH. IF THIS WERE
TO OCCUR, THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SHOULD
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHC. SINCE THE PROSPECTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS ON THE LOWER SIDE, WE KEPT THE POPS AT OR BELOW
LOW CHC, WITH THE BETTER CHC LOOKING LIKE THE WESTERN ZONES TO
PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A WINDOW WHERE
BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE IDEA
OF MORE CLOUDINESS/LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WAS INCORPORATED INTO THE
SKY GRIDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT, MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CRESTS ACROSS
THE AREA, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EASE EASTWARD. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE ONSHORE FLOW TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY.
THERE COULD BE SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES TO START SATURDAY DEPENDING ON THE DRY AIR PUSH,
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED ATTM. WE START TO
LOSE THE COOLER ONSHORE INFLUENCE, AND THEREFORE THE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO REBOUND SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING NEAR
THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER SHOULD FLATTEN THE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALSO
FORCE HIGH PRESSURE MORE OFFSHORE, AND A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
GRADUALLY SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY LOOKS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY, THEREFORE THE
CHCS FOR CONVECTION SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN TO OUR WEST. SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING WELL INTO
CANADA AS A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE MIDWEST
WEDNESDAY. IT IS A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH THIS FEATURE THAT MAY END
UP MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA LATER WEDNESDAY. THERE IS MORE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES THIS FAR OUT. GIVEN
THE LINGERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, A SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE SURFACE FRONT MAY RESULT. AS THE FLOW IS MORE SOUTHERLY, A
RATHER WARM AIR MASS LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE WITH SOME INCREASE IN
THE DEW POINTS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR THRU THE AFTN AND INTO THE EVE. SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT WITH FOG.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF
ABE AND RDG TERMINALS AFTER 18Z TODAY BEFORE THE ACTIVITY DECAYS
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER, THE
CHANCE OF ANY OF OUR TAF SITES BEING AFFECTED IS LOW AND WE WILL
NOT MENTION THE POTENTIAL IN THE TAF PRODUCTS.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO FAVOR THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST FOR TODAY
AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. HOWEVER, A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INLAND FROM THE OCEAN AND IT SHOULD AFFECT KACY THIS
AFTERNOON BRINGING THE WIND AROUND TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST THERE.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THIS EVENING SHOULD BECOME NORTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTH. WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR OVERALL. SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR THE KPHL AREA ON WEST AND SOUTH. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUD /MVFR/ DEVELOPMENT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT KRDG TO KPHL TO KACY
ON SOUTHWARD, HOWEVER THIS IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
EAST- NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS, WITH SOME GUSTINESS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY
10- 15 KNOTS SATURDAY, DIMINISHING AND BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY
SUNDAY BEFORE TURNING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING BEFORE IT DRIFTS INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT.

THE WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO BE VARIABLE THIS MORNING BEFORE
SETTLING INTO THE SOUTHEAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.
THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT.
SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS ARE FORECAST TO BE 1 TO 2 FEET
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH WAVES ON DELAWARE BAY BEING 2
FT OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES THROUGH, THE
WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AND INCREASE. IT
APPEARS THAT GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS OCCUR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON
THE COASTAL WATERS LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE A DECREASE BEGINS. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LOOKS TO BE NEEDED. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO BUILD THE SEAS TO
AROUND 5 FEET STARTING LATE FRIDAY ON THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THEY SHIFT FROM EAST-NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH. THE SEAS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW HIGH THEY GET
ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO/KLEIN
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO/KLEIN




000
FXUS61 KPHI 031411
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1011 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS THEN
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY ARRIVE LATER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A PRESSURE TROUGH WAS LOCATED NEAR CAPE CODE, EXTENDING
SOUTHEASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NJ AND DELMARVA COAST. A LEE SURFACE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP INLAND THIS AFTERNOON NEAR I-95 WHERE
NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS CONVERGE WITH
ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE INLAND MOVING SEA-BREEZE.

SKIES WILL REMAIN SUNNY THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING BEFORE CU
FIELD DEVELOPS DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. IT
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THRU AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. MADE SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE POP/WX GRIDS FOR TODAY BY CONFINING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FAR SOUTHERN AND FAR NORTHERN ZONES. ACROSS
THE LOWER DELMARVA, ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HIGHER INSTABILITY,
WHICH MAY YIELD AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE ALSO HIGHLIGHTED IN
NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ. THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION UP THERE
WILL BE TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS AS WELL AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THAT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM UPSTATE NY. THIS ACTIVITY IS
FAVORED LATE IN THE DAY DUE TO A DELAYED ARRIVAL OF THIS FRONT.

THE LATE SEASON HEAT WILL CONTINUE ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA (EXCEPT COOLER NEAR THE COAST
AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST PA/NORTHWEST NJ). THE
HEAT INDEX MAY TOP OFF IN THE 94-96F RANGE FOR THE HOT SPOTS
WITHIN THE URBAN I-95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY TONIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AND WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH IS ANTICIPATED TO
DROP THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
ENHANCE OUR CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
STABILIZE GRADUALLY DURING THE NIGHT.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A RIDGE SLIDING EASTWARD OVER
OUR AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO
FLATTEN OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. OVERALL, THIS PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR
WARMTH AND DRYNESS ALTHOUGH A BRIEF BREAK OCCURS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE REGION NEEDS
RAIN, HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THE CHCS ARE RATHER LOW GIVEN NO
ORGANIZED SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH. WE USED A MODEL/CONTINUITY BLEND
FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY, WITH A 00Z WPC GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY BLEND
THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE AFTER ADDITIONAL
COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE SHIFTING
WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD THEREFORE BE
SHIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD WITH TIME AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
TO BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BEING FROM THE EAST OR NORTHEAST, AND WITH MORE OF AN OCEAN
INFLUENCE SOME COOLING OF THE AIR MASS IS ANTICIPATED. THE DRIER
AIR MAY WIN OUT AND THEREFORE DESPITE THE ONSHORE FLOW WE SHOULD
HAVE SOME DECREASE IN THE CLOUDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AREAS. HOWEVER IF THE TRANSITION IS DELAYED OR IS NOT CLEAN LIKE
SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS, THEN A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS MAY BE
POSSIBLE BEFORE THE DRIER AIR PRESSES FARTHER SOUTH. IF THIS WERE
TO OCCUR, THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SHOULD
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHC. SINCE THE PROSPECTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS ON THE LOWER SIDE, WE KEPT THE POPS AT OR BELOW
LOW CHC, WITH THE BETTER CHC LOOKING LIKE THE WESTERN ZONES TO
PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A WINDOW WHERE
BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE IDEA
OF MORE CLOUDINESS/LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WAS INCORPORATED INTO THE
SKY GRIDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT, MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CRESTS ACROSS
THE AREA, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EASE EASTWARD. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE ONSHORE FLOW TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY.
THERE COULD BE SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES TO START SATURDAY DEPENDING ON THE DRY AIR PUSH,
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED ATTM. WE START TO
LOSE THE COOLER ONSHORE INFLUENCE, AND THEREFORE THE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO REBOUND SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING NEAR
THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER SHOULD FLATTEN THE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALSO
FORCE HIGH PRESSURE MORE OFFSHORE, AND A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
GRADUALLY SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY LOOKS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY, THEREFORE THE
CHCS FOR CONVECTION SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN TO OUR WEST. SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING WELL INTO
CANADA AS A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE MIDWEST
WEDNESDAY. IT IS A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH THIS FEATURE THAT MAY END
UP MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA LATER WEDNESDAY. THERE IS MORE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES THIS FAR OUT. GIVEN
THE LINGERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, A SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE SURFACE FRONT MAY RESULT. AS THE FLOW IS MORE SOUTHERLY, A
RATHER WARM AIR MASS LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE WITH SOME INCREASE IN
THE DEW POINTS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR THRU THE AFTN AND INTO THE EVE. SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT WITH FOG.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF
ABE AND RDG TERMINALS AFTER 18Z TODAY BEFORE THE ACTIVITY DECAYS
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER, THE
CHANCE OF ANY OF OUR TAF SITES BEING AFFECTED IS LOW AND WE WILL
NOT MENTION THE POTENTIAL IN THE TAF PRODUCTS.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO FAVOR THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST FOR TODAY
AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. HOWEVER, A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INLAND FROM THE OCEAN AND IT SHOULD AFFECT KACY THIS
AFTERNOON BRINGING THE WIND AROUND TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST THERE.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THIS EVENING SHOULD BECOME NORTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTH. WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR OVERALL. SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR THE KPHL AREA ON WEST AND SOUTH. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUD /MVFR/ DEVELOPMENT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT KRDG TO KPHL TO KACY
ON SOUTHWARD, HOWEVER THIS IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
EAST- NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS, WITH SOME GUSTINESS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY
10- 15 KNOTS SATURDAY, DIMINISHING AND BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY
SUNDAY BEFORE TURNING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING BEFORE IT DRIFTS INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT.

THE WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO BE VARIABLE THIS MORNING BEFORE
SETTLING INTO THE SOUTHEAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.
THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT.
SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS ARE FORECAST TO BE 1 TO 2 FEET
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH WAVES ON DELAWARE BAY BEING 2
FT OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES THROUGH, THE
WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AND INCREASE. IT
APPEARS THAT GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS OCCUR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON
THE COASTAL WATERS LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE A DECREASE BEGINS. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LOOKS TO BE NEEDED. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO BUILD THE SEAS TO
AROUND 5 FEET STARTING LATE FRIDAY ON THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THEY SHIFT FROM EAST-NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH. THE SEAS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW HIGH THEY GET
ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO/KLEIN
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO/KLEIN




000
FXUS61 KPHI 031411
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1011 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS THEN
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY ARRIVE LATER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A PRESSURE TROUGH WAS LOCATED NEAR CAPE CODE, EXTENDING
SOUTHEASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NJ AND DELMARVA COAST. A LEE SURFACE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP INLAND THIS AFTERNOON NEAR I-95 WHERE
NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS CONVERGE WITH
ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE INLAND MOVING SEA-BREEZE.

SKIES WILL REMAIN SUNNY THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING BEFORE CU
FIELD DEVELOPS DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. IT
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THRU AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. MADE SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE POP/WX GRIDS FOR TODAY BY CONFINING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FAR SOUTHERN AND FAR NORTHERN ZONES. ACROSS
THE LOWER DELMARVA, ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HIGHER INSTABILITY,
WHICH MAY YIELD AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE ALSO HIGHLIGHTED IN
NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ. THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION UP THERE
WILL BE TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS AS WELL AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THAT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM UPSTATE NY. THIS ACTIVITY IS
FAVORED LATE IN THE DAY DUE TO A DELAYED ARRIVAL OF THIS FRONT.

THE LATE SEASON HEAT WILL CONTINUE ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA (EXCEPT COOLER NEAR THE COAST
AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST PA/NORTHWEST NJ). THE
HEAT INDEX MAY TOP OFF IN THE 94-96F RANGE FOR THE HOT SPOTS
WITHIN THE URBAN I-95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY TONIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AND WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH IS ANTICIPATED TO
DROP THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
ENHANCE OUR CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
STABILIZE GRADUALLY DURING THE NIGHT.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A RIDGE SLIDING EASTWARD OVER
OUR AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO
FLATTEN OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. OVERALL, THIS PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR
WARMTH AND DRYNESS ALTHOUGH A BRIEF BREAK OCCURS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE REGION NEEDS
RAIN, HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THE CHCS ARE RATHER LOW GIVEN NO
ORGANIZED SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH. WE USED A MODEL/CONTINUITY BLEND
FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY, WITH A 00Z WPC GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY BLEND
THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE AFTER ADDITIONAL
COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE SHIFTING
WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD THEREFORE BE
SHIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD WITH TIME AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
TO BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BEING FROM THE EAST OR NORTHEAST, AND WITH MORE OF AN OCEAN
INFLUENCE SOME COOLING OF THE AIR MASS IS ANTICIPATED. THE DRIER
AIR MAY WIN OUT AND THEREFORE DESPITE THE ONSHORE FLOW WE SHOULD
HAVE SOME DECREASE IN THE CLOUDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AREAS. HOWEVER IF THE TRANSITION IS DELAYED OR IS NOT CLEAN LIKE
SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS, THEN A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS MAY BE
POSSIBLE BEFORE THE DRIER AIR PRESSES FARTHER SOUTH. IF THIS WERE
TO OCCUR, THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SHOULD
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHC. SINCE THE PROSPECTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS ON THE LOWER SIDE, WE KEPT THE POPS AT OR BELOW
LOW CHC, WITH THE BETTER CHC LOOKING LIKE THE WESTERN ZONES TO
PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A WINDOW WHERE
BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE IDEA
OF MORE CLOUDINESS/LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WAS INCORPORATED INTO THE
SKY GRIDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT, MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CRESTS ACROSS
THE AREA, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EASE EASTWARD. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE ONSHORE FLOW TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY.
THERE COULD BE SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES TO START SATURDAY DEPENDING ON THE DRY AIR PUSH,
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED ATTM. WE START TO
LOSE THE COOLER ONSHORE INFLUENCE, AND THEREFORE THE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO REBOUND SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING NEAR
THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER SHOULD FLATTEN THE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALSO
FORCE HIGH PRESSURE MORE OFFSHORE, AND A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
GRADUALLY SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY LOOKS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY, THEREFORE THE
CHCS FOR CONVECTION SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN TO OUR WEST. SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING WELL INTO
CANADA AS A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE MIDWEST
WEDNESDAY. IT IS A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH THIS FEATURE THAT MAY END
UP MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA LATER WEDNESDAY. THERE IS MORE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES THIS FAR OUT. GIVEN
THE LINGERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, A SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE SURFACE FRONT MAY RESULT. AS THE FLOW IS MORE SOUTHERLY, A
RATHER WARM AIR MASS LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE WITH SOME INCREASE IN
THE DEW POINTS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR THRU THE AFTN AND INTO THE EVE. SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT WITH FOG.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF
ABE AND RDG TERMINALS AFTER 18Z TODAY BEFORE THE ACTIVITY DECAYS
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER, THE
CHANCE OF ANY OF OUR TAF SITES BEING AFFECTED IS LOW AND WE WILL
NOT MENTION THE POTENTIAL IN THE TAF PRODUCTS.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO FAVOR THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST FOR TODAY
AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. HOWEVER, A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INLAND FROM THE OCEAN AND IT SHOULD AFFECT KACY THIS
AFTERNOON BRINGING THE WIND AROUND TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST THERE.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THIS EVENING SHOULD BECOME NORTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTH. WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR OVERALL. SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR THE KPHL AREA ON WEST AND SOUTH. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUD /MVFR/ DEVELOPMENT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT KRDG TO KPHL TO KACY
ON SOUTHWARD, HOWEVER THIS IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
EAST- NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS, WITH SOME GUSTINESS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY
10- 15 KNOTS SATURDAY, DIMINISHING AND BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY
SUNDAY BEFORE TURNING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING BEFORE IT DRIFTS INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT.

THE WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO BE VARIABLE THIS MORNING BEFORE
SETTLING INTO THE SOUTHEAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.
THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT.
SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS ARE FORECAST TO BE 1 TO 2 FEET
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH WAVES ON DELAWARE BAY BEING 2
FT OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES THROUGH, THE
WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AND INCREASE. IT
APPEARS THAT GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS OCCUR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON
THE COASTAL WATERS LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE A DECREASE BEGINS. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LOOKS TO BE NEEDED. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO BUILD THE SEAS TO
AROUND 5 FEET STARTING LATE FRIDAY ON THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THEY SHIFT FROM EAST-NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH. THE SEAS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW HIGH THEY GET
ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO/KLEIN
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO/KLEIN




000
FXUS61 KPHI 031411
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1011 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS THEN
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY ARRIVE LATER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A PRESSURE TROUGH WAS LOCATED NEAR CAPE CODE, EXTENDING
SOUTHEASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NJ AND DELMARVA COAST. A LEE SURFACE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP INLAND THIS AFTERNOON NEAR I-95 WHERE
NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS CONVERGE WITH
ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE INLAND MOVING SEA-BREEZE.

SKIES WILL REMAIN SUNNY THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING BEFORE CU
FIELD DEVELOPS DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. IT
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THRU AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. MADE SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE POP/WX GRIDS FOR TODAY BY CONFINING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FAR SOUTHERN AND FAR NORTHERN ZONES. ACROSS
THE LOWER DELMARVA, ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HIGHER INSTABILITY,
WHICH MAY YIELD AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE ALSO HIGHLIGHTED IN
NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ. THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION UP THERE
WILL BE TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS AS WELL AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THAT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM UPSTATE NY. THIS ACTIVITY IS
FAVORED LATE IN THE DAY DUE TO A DELAYED ARRIVAL OF THIS FRONT.

THE LATE SEASON HEAT WILL CONTINUE ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA (EXCEPT COOLER NEAR THE COAST
AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST PA/NORTHWEST NJ). THE
HEAT INDEX MAY TOP OFF IN THE 94-96F RANGE FOR THE HOT SPOTS
WITHIN THE URBAN I-95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY TONIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AND WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH IS ANTICIPATED TO
DROP THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
ENHANCE OUR CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
STABILIZE GRADUALLY DURING THE NIGHT.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A RIDGE SLIDING EASTWARD OVER
OUR AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO
FLATTEN OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. OVERALL, THIS PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR
WARMTH AND DRYNESS ALTHOUGH A BRIEF BREAK OCCURS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE REGION NEEDS
RAIN, HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THE CHCS ARE RATHER LOW GIVEN NO
ORGANIZED SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH. WE USED A MODEL/CONTINUITY BLEND
FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY, WITH A 00Z WPC GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY BLEND
THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE AFTER ADDITIONAL
COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE SHIFTING
WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD THEREFORE BE
SHIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD WITH TIME AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
TO BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BEING FROM THE EAST OR NORTHEAST, AND WITH MORE OF AN OCEAN
INFLUENCE SOME COOLING OF THE AIR MASS IS ANTICIPATED. THE DRIER
AIR MAY WIN OUT AND THEREFORE DESPITE THE ONSHORE FLOW WE SHOULD
HAVE SOME DECREASE IN THE CLOUDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AREAS. HOWEVER IF THE TRANSITION IS DELAYED OR IS NOT CLEAN LIKE
SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS, THEN A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS MAY BE
POSSIBLE BEFORE THE DRIER AIR PRESSES FARTHER SOUTH. IF THIS WERE
TO OCCUR, THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SHOULD
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHC. SINCE THE PROSPECTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS ON THE LOWER SIDE, WE KEPT THE POPS AT OR BELOW
LOW CHC, WITH THE BETTER CHC LOOKING LIKE THE WESTERN ZONES TO
PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A WINDOW WHERE
BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE IDEA
OF MORE CLOUDINESS/LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WAS INCORPORATED INTO THE
SKY GRIDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT, MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CRESTS ACROSS
THE AREA, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EASE EASTWARD. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE ONSHORE FLOW TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY.
THERE COULD BE SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES TO START SATURDAY DEPENDING ON THE DRY AIR PUSH,
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED ATTM. WE START TO
LOSE THE COOLER ONSHORE INFLUENCE, AND THEREFORE THE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO REBOUND SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING NEAR
THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER SHOULD FLATTEN THE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALSO
FORCE HIGH PRESSURE MORE OFFSHORE, AND A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
GRADUALLY SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY LOOKS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY, THEREFORE THE
CHCS FOR CONVECTION SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN TO OUR WEST. SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING WELL INTO
CANADA AS A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE MIDWEST
WEDNESDAY. IT IS A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH THIS FEATURE THAT MAY END
UP MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA LATER WEDNESDAY. THERE IS MORE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES THIS FAR OUT. GIVEN
THE LINGERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, A SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE SURFACE FRONT MAY RESULT. AS THE FLOW IS MORE SOUTHERLY, A
RATHER WARM AIR MASS LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE WITH SOME INCREASE IN
THE DEW POINTS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR THRU THE AFTN AND INTO THE EVE. SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT WITH FOG.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF
ABE AND RDG TERMINALS AFTER 18Z TODAY BEFORE THE ACTIVITY DECAYS
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER, THE
CHANCE OF ANY OF OUR TAF SITES BEING AFFECTED IS LOW AND WE WILL
NOT MENTION THE POTENTIAL IN THE TAF PRODUCTS.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO FAVOR THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST FOR TODAY
AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. HOWEVER, A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INLAND FROM THE OCEAN AND IT SHOULD AFFECT KACY THIS
AFTERNOON BRINGING THE WIND AROUND TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST THERE.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THIS EVENING SHOULD BECOME NORTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTH. WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR OVERALL. SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR THE KPHL AREA ON WEST AND SOUTH. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUD /MVFR/ DEVELOPMENT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT KRDG TO KPHL TO KACY
ON SOUTHWARD, HOWEVER THIS IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
EAST- NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS, WITH SOME GUSTINESS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY
10- 15 KNOTS SATURDAY, DIMINISHING AND BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY
SUNDAY BEFORE TURNING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING BEFORE IT DRIFTS INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT.

THE WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO BE VARIABLE THIS MORNING BEFORE
SETTLING INTO THE SOUTHEAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.
THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT.
SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS ARE FORECAST TO BE 1 TO 2 FEET
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH WAVES ON DELAWARE BAY BEING 2
FT OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES THROUGH, THE
WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AND INCREASE. IT
APPEARS THAT GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS OCCUR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON
THE COASTAL WATERS LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE A DECREASE BEGINS. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LOOKS TO BE NEEDED. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO BUILD THE SEAS TO
AROUND 5 FEET STARTING LATE FRIDAY ON THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THEY SHIFT FROM EAST-NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH. THE SEAS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW HIGH THEY GET
ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO/KLEIN
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO/KLEIN




000
FXUS61 KLWX 031340
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
940 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRES WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH TODAY.
BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BETWEEN A DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.

NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS CONTINUING. TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S ALONG AND
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE LOW TO MID 90S NEAR THE I-95
CORRIDOR. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO MORE INSTABILITY
TODAY WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1-2J/KG OF MLCAPE DEVELOPING.
THERE IS A LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM TODAY COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY SO CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS AS WIDESPREAD.
HOWEVER...WITH A LIGHT FLOW IN PLACE THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR TERRAIN
CIRCULATION TO ACT AS A WEAKER LIFTING MECHANISM.
THE LIFT FROM TERRAIN CIRCULATION SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. DID ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION TOWARD THE WASHINGTON METRO AREA AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND
FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING DUE THE LIGHT NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW.

A BACKDOOR BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND
EAST LATE TONIGHT...THIS MAY TRIGGER A COUPLE MORE SHOWERS BUT
FORCING WILL BE WEAK AND DUE TO THE UNFAVORABLE TIMING ANY SHOWER
COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
FRIDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO N MD FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING AN AIRMASS CHANGE FOR THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL
SAG SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM FRIDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO
ONSHORE FLOW AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE. EASTERN SLOPES SUCH AS THE BLUE RIDGE FOOTHILLS MAY
EXPERIENCE RAINFALL ENHANCEMENT DUE TO UPSLOPE CONDITIONS. AT THIS
TIME DUE TO RECENT DRY CONDITIONS NO FLOOD THREAT IS IMMINENT
HOWEVER THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA FRI NIGHT WITH SCT
SHOWERS/T-STORMS ENDING FROM EAST TO WEST LATE FRI NIGHT. LOW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GET BANK UP AGAINST THE BLUE RIDGE AND
APPALACHIANS MTNS ON EASTERLY FLOW. LOW CLOUDS WILL THEN GRADUALY
MIX OUT SAT MORNING.

HIGH PRES BUILDS FOR THE WEEKEND GIVING WAY TO FAIR WEATHER THROUGH
LABOR DAY. HOWEVER...GFS IS SUGGESTING SOME MOISTURE WILL BE
ADVECTED FROM THE ATLC INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AS A WEAK LOW PRES
(POSSIBLE REMNANT LOW OF ERIKA) LIFTS NORTHEAST. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP FCST DRY AS THIS SEEMS A LOW PROBABILITY OUTCOME
ACCORDING TO GEFS ENSEMBLE DATA.

SFC HIGH PRES WEAKENS FURTHER MID NEXT WEEK WHILE MOISTURE
GRADUALLY INCREASES INCREASING THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK WITH
90S MAKING A RETURN. WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE INDICATED BY GFS AND
ECMWF IN THE WED-THU TIME FRAME BUT ENSEMBLES SHOW A HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. ALSO...HIGH PRES BUILDING
BEHIND FRONT LOOKS PRETTY WEAK SO FRONT MAY NOT GET ENOUGH PUSH TO
MAKE IT THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT
MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD BE DRY. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
WILL CAUSE SUB- VFR VSBYS AND POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS. A COLD FRONT
MOVES FROM NE TO SW FRIDAY. SHRA/VCTS EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. SOME TS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN.

LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY AT KCHO. SOME REMNANT
SMOKE FROM THE GREAT LKS MAY ALSO BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM
NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CAUSE LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS
FROM THE NE FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME NE FROM N TO S ON
THE WATERS. WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO GUST NEAR SCA CONDITIONS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A SCA IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.

SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY SAT INTO SAT EVENING ESPECIALLY ON
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. SCA POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...BJL/HAS/LFR
MARINE...BJL/HAS/LFR



000
FXUS61 KLWX 031340
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
940 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRES WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH TODAY.
BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BETWEEN A DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.

NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS CONTINUING. TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S ALONG AND
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE LOW TO MID 90S NEAR THE I-95
CORRIDOR. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO MORE INSTABILITY
TODAY WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1-2J/KG OF MLCAPE DEVELOPING.
THERE IS A LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM TODAY COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY SO CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS AS WIDESPREAD.
HOWEVER...WITH A LIGHT FLOW IN PLACE THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR TERRAIN
CIRCULATION TO ACT AS A WEAKER LIFTING MECHANISM.
THE LIFT FROM TERRAIN CIRCULATION SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. DID ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION TOWARD THE WASHINGTON METRO AREA AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND
FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING DUE THE LIGHT NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW.

A BACKDOOR BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND
EAST LATE TONIGHT...THIS MAY TRIGGER A COUPLE MORE SHOWERS BUT
FORCING WILL BE WEAK AND DUE TO THE UNFAVORABLE TIMING ANY SHOWER
COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
FRIDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO N MD FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING AN AIRMASS CHANGE FOR THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL
SAG SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM FRIDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO
ONSHORE FLOW AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE. EASTERN SLOPES SUCH AS THE BLUE RIDGE FOOTHILLS MAY
EXPERIENCE RAINFALL ENHANCEMENT DUE TO UPSLOPE CONDITIONS. AT THIS
TIME DUE TO RECENT DRY CONDITIONS NO FLOOD THREAT IS IMMINENT
HOWEVER THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA FRI NIGHT WITH SCT
SHOWERS/T-STORMS ENDING FROM EAST TO WEST LATE FRI NIGHT. LOW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GET BANK UP AGAINST THE BLUE RIDGE AND
APPALACHIANS MTNS ON EASTERLY FLOW. LOW CLOUDS WILL THEN GRADUALY
MIX OUT SAT MORNING.

HIGH PRES BUILDS FOR THE WEEKEND GIVING WAY TO FAIR WEATHER THROUGH
LABOR DAY. HOWEVER...GFS IS SUGGESTING SOME MOISTURE WILL BE
ADVECTED FROM THE ATLC INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AS A WEAK LOW PRES
(POSSIBLE REMNANT LOW OF ERIKA) LIFTS NORTHEAST. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP FCST DRY AS THIS SEEMS A LOW PROBABILITY OUTCOME
ACCORDING TO GEFS ENSEMBLE DATA.

SFC HIGH PRES WEAKENS FURTHER MID NEXT WEEK WHILE MOISTURE
GRADUALLY INCREASES INCREASING THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK WITH
90S MAKING A RETURN. WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE INDICATED BY GFS AND
ECMWF IN THE WED-THU TIME FRAME BUT ENSEMBLES SHOW A HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. ALSO...HIGH PRES BUILDING
BEHIND FRONT LOOKS PRETTY WEAK SO FRONT MAY NOT GET ENOUGH PUSH TO
MAKE IT THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT
MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD BE DRY. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
WILL CAUSE SUB- VFR VSBYS AND POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS. A COLD FRONT
MOVES FROM NE TO SW FRIDAY. SHRA/VCTS EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. SOME TS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN.

LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY AT KCHO. SOME REMNANT
SMOKE FROM THE GREAT LKS MAY ALSO BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM
NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CAUSE LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS
FROM THE NE FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME NE FROM N TO S ON
THE WATERS. WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO GUST NEAR SCA CONDITIONS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A SCA IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.

SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY SAT INTO SAT EVENING ESPECIALLY ON
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. SCA POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...BJL/HAS/LFR
MARINE...BJL/HAS/LFR




000
FXUS61 KLWX 031340
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
940 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRES WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH TODAY.
BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BETWEEN A DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.

NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS CONTINUING. TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S ALONG AND
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE LOW TO MID 90S NEAR THE I-95
CORRIDOR. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO MORE INSTABILITY
TODAY WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1-2J/KG OF MLCAPE DEVELOPING.
THERE IS A LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM TODAY COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY SO CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS AS WIDESPREAD.
HOWEVER...WITH A LIGHT FLOW IN PLACE THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR TERRAIN
CIRCULATION TO ACT AS A WEAKER LIFTING MECHANISM.
THE LIFT FROM TERRAIN CIRCULATION SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. DID ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION TOWARD THE WASHINGTON METRO AREA AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND
FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING DUE THE LIGHT NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW.

A BACKDOOR BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND
EAST LATE TONIGHT...THIS MAY TRIGGER A COUPLE MORE SHOWERS BUT
FORCING WILL BE WEAK AND DUE TO THE UNFAVORABLE TIMING ANY SHOWER
COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
FRIDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO N MD FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING AN AIRMASS CHANGE FOR THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL
SAG SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM FRIDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO
ONSHORE FLOW AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE. EASTERN SLOPES SUCH AS THE BLUE RIDGE FOOTHILLS MAY
EXPERIENCE RAINFALL ENHANCEMENT DUE TO UPSLOPE CONDITIONS. AT THIS
TIME DUE TO RECENT DRY CONDITIONS NO FLOOD THREAT IS IMMINENT
HOWEVER THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA FRI NIGHT WITH SCT
SHOWERS/T-STORMS ENDING FROM EAST TO WEST LATE FRI NIGHT. LOW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GET BANK UP AGAINST THE BLUE RIDGE AND
APPALACHIANS MTNS ON EASTERLY FLOW. LOW CLOUDS WILL THEN GRADUALY
MIX OUT SAT MORNING.

HIGH PRES BUILDS FOR THE WEEKEND GIVING WAY TO FAIR WEATHER THROUGH
LABOR DAY. HOWEVER...GFS IS SUGGESTING SOME MOISTURE WILL BE
ADVECTED FROM THE ATLC INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AS A WEAK LOW PRES
(POSSIBLE REMNANT LOW OF ERIKA) LIFTS NORTHEAST. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP FCST DRY AS THIS SEEMS A LOW PROBABILITY OUTCOME
ACCORDING TO GEFS ENSEMBLE DATA.

SFC HIGH PRES WEAKENS FURTHER MID NEXT WEEK WHILE MOISTURE
GRADUALLY INCREASES INCREASING THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK WITH
90S MAKING A RETURN. WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE INDICATED BY GFS AND
ECMWF IN THE WED-THU TIME FRAME BUT ENSEMBLES SHOW A HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. ALSO...HIGH PRES BUILDING
BEHIND FRONT LOOKS PRETTY WEAK SO FRONT MAY NOT GET ENOUGH PUSH TO
MAKE IT THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT
MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD BE DRY. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
WILL CAUSE SUB- VFR VSBYS AND POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS. A COLD FRONT
MOVES FROM NE TO SW FRIDAY. SHRA/VCTS EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. SOME TS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN.

LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY AT KCHO. SOME REMNANT
SMOKE FROM THE GREAT LKS MAY ALSO BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM
NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CAUSE LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS
FROM THE NE FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME NE FROM N TO S ON
THE WATERS. WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO GUST NEAR SCA CONDITIONS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A SCA IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.

SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY SAT INTO SAT EVENING ESPECIALLY ON
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. SCA POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...BJL/HAS/LFR
MARINE...BJL/HAS/LFR



000
FXUS61 KLWX 031340
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
940 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRES WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH TODAY.
BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BETWEEN A DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.

NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS CONTINUING. TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S ALONG AND
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE LOW TO MID 90S NEAR THE I-95
CORRIDOR. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO MORE INSTABILITY
TODAY WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1-2J/KG OF MLCAPE DEVELOPING.
THERE IS A LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM TODAY COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY SO CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS AS WIDESPREAD.
HOWEVER...WITH A LIGHT FLOW IN PLACE THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR TERRAIN
CIRCULATION TO ACT AS A WEAKER LIFTING MECHANISM.
THE LIFT FROM TERRAIN CIRCULATION SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. DID ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION TOWARD THE WASHINGTON METRO AREA AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND
FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING DUE THE LIGHT NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW.

A BACKDOOR BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND
EAST LATE TONIGHT...THIS MAY TRIGGER A COUPLE MORE SHOWERS BUT
FORCING WILL BE WEAK AND DUE TO THE UNFAVORABLE TIMING ANY SHOWER
COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
FRIDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO N MD FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING AN AIRMASS CHANGE FOR THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL
SAG SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM FRIDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO
ONSHORE FLOW AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE. EASTERN SLOPES SUCH AS THE BLUE RIDGE FOOTHILLS MAY
EXPERIENCE RAINFALL ENHANCEMENT DUE TO UPSLOPE CONDITIONS. AT THIS
TIME DUE TO RECENT DRY CONDITIONS NO FLOOD THREAT IS IMMINENT
HOWEVER THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA FRI NIGHT WITH SCT
SHOWERS/T-STORMS ENDING FROM EAST TO WEST LATE FRI NIGHT. LOW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GET BANK UP AGAINST THE BLUE RIDGE AND
APPALACHIANS MTNS ON EASTERLY FLOW. LOW CLOUDS WILL THEN GRADUALY
MIX OUT SAT MORNING.

HIGH PRES BUILDS FOR THE WEEKEND GIVING WAY TO FAIR WEATHER THROUGH
LABOR DAY. HOWEVER...GFS IS SUGGESTING SOME MOISTURE WILL BE
ADVECTED FROM THE ATLC INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AS A WEAK LOW PRES
(POSSIBLE REMNANT LOW OF ERIKA) LIFTS NORTHEAST. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP FCST DRY AS THIS SEEMS A LOW PROBABILITY OUTCOME
ACCORDING TO GEFS ENSEMBLE DATA.

SFC HIGH PRES WEAKENS FURTHER MID NEXT WEEK WHILE MOISTURE
GRADUALLY INCREASES INCREASING THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK WITH
90S MAKING A RETURN. WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE INDICATED BY GFS AND
ECMWF IN THE WED-THU TIME FRAME BUT ENSEMBLES SHOW A HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. ALSO...HIGH PRES BUILDING
BEHIND FRONT LOOKS PRETTY WEAK SO FRONT MAY NOT GET ENOUGH PUSH TO
MAKE IT THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT
MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD BE DRY. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
WILL CAUSE SUB- VFR VSBYS AND POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS. A COLD FRONT
MOVES FROM NE TO SW FRIDAY. SHRA/VCTS EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. SOME TS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN.

LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY AT KCHO. SOME REMNANT
SMOKE FROM THE GREAT LKS MAY ALSO BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM
NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CAUSE LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS
FROM THE NE FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME NE FROM N TO S ON
THE WATERS. WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO GUST NEAR SCA CONDITIONS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A SCA IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.

SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY SAT INTO SAT EVENING ESPECIALLY ON
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. SCA POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...BJL/HAS/LFR
MARINE...BJL/HAS/LFR



000
FXUS61 KLWX 031340
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
940 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRES WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH TODAY.
BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BETWEEN A DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.

NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS CONTINUING. TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S ALONG AND
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE LOW TO MID 90S NEAR THE I-95
CORRIDOR. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO MORE INSTABILITY
TODAY WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1-2J/KG OF MLCAPE DEVELOPING.
THERE IS A LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM TODAY COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY SO CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS AS WIDESPREAD.
HOWEVER...WITH A LIGHT FLOW IN PLACE THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR TERRAIN
CIRCULATION TO ACT AS A WEAKER LIFTING MECHANISM.
THE LIFT FROM TERRAIN CIRCULATION SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. DID ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION TOWARD THE WASHINGTON METRO AREA AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND
FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING DUE THE LIGHT NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW.

A BACKDOOR BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND
EAST LATE TONIGHT...THIS MAY TRIGGER A COUPLE MORE SHOWERS BUT
FORCING WILL BE WEAK AND DUE TO THE UNFAVORABLE TIMING ANY SHOWER
COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
FRIDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO N MD FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING AN AIRMASS CHANGE FOR THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL
SAG SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM FRIDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO
ONSHORE FLOW AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE. EASTERN SLOPES SUCH AS THE BLUE RIDGE FOOTHILLS MAY
EXPERIENCE RAINFALL ENHANCEMENT DUE TO UPSLOPE CONDITIONS. AT THIS
TIME DUE TO RECENT DRY CONDITIONS NO FLOOD THREAT IS IMMINENT
HOWEVER THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA FRI NIGHT WITH SCT
SHOWERS/T-STORMS ENDING FROM EAST TO WEST LATE FRI NIGHT. LOW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GET BANK UP AGAINST THE BLUE RIDGE AND
APPALACHIANS MTNS ON EASTERLY FLOW. LOW CLOUDS WILL THEN GRADUALY
MIX OUT SAT MORNING.

HIGH PRES BUILDS FOR THE WEEKEND GIVING WAY TO FAIR WEATHER THROUGH
LABOR DAY. HOWEVER...GFS IS SUGGESTING SOME MOISTURE WILL BE
ADVECTED FROM THE ATLC INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AS A WEAK LOW PRES
(POSSIBLE REMNANT LOW OF ERIKA) LIFTS NORTHEAST. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP FCST DRY AS THIS SEEMS A LOW PROBABILITY OUTCOME
ACCORDING TO GEFS ENSEMBLE DATA.

SFC HIGH PRES WEAKENS FURTHER MID NEXT WEEK WHILE MOISTURE
GRADUALLY INCREASES INCREASING THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK WITH
90S MAKING A RETURN. WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE INDICATED BY GFS AND
ECMWF IN THE WED-THU TIME FRAME BUT ENSEMBLES SHOW A HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. ALSO...HIGH PRES BUILDING
BEHIND FRONT LOOKS PRETTY WEAK SO FRONT MAY NOT GET ENOUGH PUSH TO
MAKE IT THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT
MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD BE DRY. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
WILL CAUSE SUB- VFR VSBYS AND POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS. A COLD FRONT
MOVES FROM NE TO SW FRIDAY. SHRA/VCTS EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. SOME TS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN.

LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY AT KCHO. SOME REMNANT
SMOKE FROM THE GREAT LKS MAY ALSO BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM
NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CAUSE LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS
FROM THE NE FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME NE FROM N TO S ON
THE WATERS. WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO GUST NEAR SCA CONDITIONS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A SCA IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.

SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY SAT INTO SAT EVENING ESPECIALLY ON
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. SCA POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...BJL/HAS/LFR
MARINE...BJL/HAS/LFR



000
FXUS61 KLWX 031340
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
940 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRES WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH TODAY.
BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BETWEEN A DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.

NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS CONTINUING. TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S ALONG AND
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE LOW TO MID 90S NEAR THE I-95
CORRIDOR. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO MORE INSTABILITY
TODAY WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1-2J/KG OF MLCAPE DEVELOPING.
THERE IS A LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM TODAY COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY SO CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS AS WIDESPREAD.
HOWEVER...WITH A LIGHT FLOW IN PLACE THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR TERRAIN
CIRCULATION TO ACT AS A WEAKER LIFTING MECHANISM.
THE LIFT FROM TERRAIN CIRCULATION SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. DID ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION TOWARD THE WASHINGTON METRO AREA AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND
FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING DUE THE LIGHT NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW.

A BACKDOOR BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND
EAST LATE TONIGHT...THIS MAY TRIGGER A COUPLE MORE SHOWERS BUT
FORCING WILL BE WEAK AND DUE TO THE UNFAVORABLE TIMING ANY SHOWER
COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
FRIDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO N MD FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING AN AIRMASS CHANGE FOR THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL
SAG SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM FRIDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO
ONSHORE FLOW AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE. EASTERN SLOPES SUCH AS THE BLUE RIDGE FOOTHILLS MAY
EXPERIENCE RAINFALL ENHANCEMENT DUE TO UPSLOPE CONDITIONS. AT THIS
TIME DUE TO RECENT DRY CONDITIONS NO FLOOD THREAT IS IMMINENT
HOWEVER THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA FRI NIGHT WITH SCT
SHOWERS/T-STORMS ENDING FROM EAST TO WEST LATE FRI NIGHT. LOW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GET BANK UP AGAINST THE BLUE RIDGE AND
APPALACHIANS MTNS ON EASTERLY FLOW. LOW CLOUDS WILL THEN GRADUALY
MIX OUT SAT MORNING.

HIGH PRES BUILDS FOR THE WEEKEND GIVING WAY TO FAIR WEATHER THROUGH
LABOR DAY. HOWEVER...GFS IS SUGGESTING SOME MOISTURE WILL BE
ADVECTED FROM THE ATLC INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AS A WEAK LOW PRES
(POSSIBLE REMNANT LOW OF ERIKA) LIFTS NORTHEAST. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP FCST DRY AS THIS SEEMS A LOW PROBABILITY OUTCOME
ACCORDING TO GEFS ENSEMBLE DATA.

SFC HIGH PRES WEAKENS FURTHER MID NEXT WEEK WHILE MOISTURE
GRADUALLY INCREASES INCREASING THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK WITH
90S MAKING A RETURN. WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE INDICATED BY GFS AND
ECMWF IN THE WED-THU TIME FRAME BUT ENSEMBLES SHOW A HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. ALSO...HIGH PRES BUILDING
BEHIND FRONT LOOKS PRETTY WEAK SO FRONT MAY NOT GET ENOUGH PUSH TO
MAKE IT THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT
MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD BE DRY. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
WILL CAUSE SUB- VFR VSBYS AND POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS. A COLD FRONT
MOVES FROM NE TO SW FRIDAY. SHRA/VCTS EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. SOME TS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN.

LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY AT KCHO. SOME REMNANT
SMOKE FROM THE GREAT LKS MAY ALSO BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM
NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CAUSE LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS
FROM THE NE FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME NE FROM N TO S ON
THE WATERS. WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO GUST NEAR SCA CONDITIONS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A SCA IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.

SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY SAT INTO SAT EVENING ESPECIALLY ON
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. SCA POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...BJL/HAS/LFR
MARINE...BJL/HAS/LFR



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031216
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
816 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MORNING UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHEAST
NEAR MERCER AND GROVE CITY. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
THINKING.

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES...IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL KEEP
IN SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE TODAY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A K INDEX IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND MU CAPES PUSHING OVER 1500J/KG. WITH
LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC FLOW IN THE CURRENT REGIME...SHEAR VALUES ARE
NOT IMPRESSIVE...LEADING ME TO BELIEVE THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS THUS
LEADING TO A SHORT LIFE SPAN. THE WEAK FLOW ALSO MEANS THAT
STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING. PWATS REMAIN NEAR 1.5 INCHES...SO A
HEAVY DOWNPOUR IS POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY END THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUES ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF PIT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ON SATURDAY AS RIDGE EXPANDS
EASTWARD. LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS PA UNDER
STRENGTHENING RIDGE. DON`T EXPECT ANY DIURNAL ACTIVITY
SATURDAY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE.

MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH COLD FRONT LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR FOG IS BECOMING MORE COMMON EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOCAL
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST AROUND KFKL AND KDUJ THROUGH
SUNRISE. FOG SHOULD AGAIN QUICKLY MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE...ALLOWING
FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL AGAIN
BE EXCEEDINGLY LIGHT AS STEERING FLOW IS VERY WEAK.
ADDITIONALLY...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY TRANSLATES TO
THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED
AND TIMING FAR FROM CERTAIN...SO INCLUSION IN THE CODED FORECASTS
IS PRECLUDED. FRIES

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031216
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
816 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MORNING UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHEAST
NEAR MERCER AND GROVE CITY. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
THINKING.

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES...IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL KEEP
IN SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE TODAY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A K INDEX IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND MU CAPES PUSHING OVER 1500J/KG. WITH
LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC FLOW IN THE CURRENT REGIME...SHEAR VALUES ARE
NOT IMPRESSIVE...LEADING ME TO BELIEVE THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS THUS
LEADING TO A SHORT LIFE SPAN. THE WEAK FLOW ALSO MEANS THAT
STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING. PWATS REMAIN NEAR 1.5 INCHES...SO A
HEAVY DOWNPOUR IS POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY END THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUES ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF PIT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ON SATURDAY AS RIDGE EXPANDS
EASTWARD. LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS PA UNDER
STRENGTHENING RIDGE. DON`T EXPECT ANY DIURNAL ACTIVITY
SATURDAY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE.

MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH COLD FRONT LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR FOG IS BECOMING MORE COMMON EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOCAL
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST AROUND KFKL AND KDUJ THROUGH
SUNRISE. FOG SHOULD AGAIN QUICKLY MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE...ALLOWING
FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL AGAIN
BE EXCEEDINGLY LIGHT AS STEERING FLOW IS VERY WEAK.
ADDITIONALLY...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY TRANSLATES TO
THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED
AND TIMING FAR FROM CERTAIN...SO INCLUSION IN THE CODED FORECASTS
IS PRECLUDED. FRIES

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031216
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
816 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MORNING UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHEAST
NEAR MERCER AND GROVE CITY. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
THINKING.

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES...IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL KEEP
IN SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE TODAY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A K INDEX IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND MU CAPES PUSHING OVER 1500J/KG. WITH
LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC FLOW IN THE CURRENT REGIME...SHEAR VALUES ARE
NOT IMPRESSIVE...LEADING ME TO BELIEVE THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS THUS
LEADING TO A SHORT LIFE SPAN. THE WEAK FLOW ALSO MEANS THAT
STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING. PWATS REMAIN NEAR 1.5 INCHES...SO A
HEAVY DOWNPOUR IS POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY END THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUES ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF PIT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ON SATURDAY AS RIDGE EXPANDS
EASTWARD. LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS PA UNDER
STRENGTHENING RIDGE. DON`T EXPECT ANY DIURNAL ACTIVITY
SATURDAY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE.

MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH COLD FRONT LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR FOG IS BECOMING MORE COMMON EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOCAL
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST AROUND KFKL AND KDUJ THROUGH
SUNRISE. FOG SHOULD AGAIN QUICKLY MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE...ALLOWING
FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL AGAIN
BE EXCEEDINGLY LIGHT AS STEERING FLOW IS VERY WEAK.
ADDITIONALLY...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY TRANSLATES TO
THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED
AND TIMING FAR FROM CERTAIN...SO INCLUSION IN THE CODED FORECASTS
IS PRECLUDED. FRIES

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031216
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
816 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MORNING UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHEAST
NEAR MERCER AND GROVE CITY. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
THINKING.

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES...IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL KEEP
IN SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE TODAY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A K INDEX IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND MU CAPES PUSHING OVER 1500J/KG. WITH
LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC FLOW IN THE CURRENT REGIME...SHEAR VALUES ARE
NOT IMPRESSIVE...LEADING ME TO BELIEVE THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS THUS
LEADING TO A SHORT LIFE SPAN. THE WEAK FLOW ALSO MEANS THAT
STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING. PWATS REMAIN NEAR 1.5 INCHES...SO A
HEAVY DOWNPOUR IS POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY END THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUES ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF PIT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ON SATURDAY AS RIDGE EXPANDS
EASTWARD. LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS PA UNDER
STRENGTHENING RIDGE. DON`T EXPECT ANY DIURNAL ACTIVITY
SATURDAY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE.

MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH COLD FRONT LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR FOG IS BECOMING MORE COMMON EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOCAL
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST AROUND KFKL AND KDUJ THROUGH
SUNRISE. FOG SHOULD AGAIN QUICKLY MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE...ALLOWING
FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL AGAIN
BE EXCEEDINGLY LIGHT AS STEERING FLOW IS VERY WEAK.
ADDITIONALLY...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY TRANSLATES TO
THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED
AND TIMING FAR FROM CERTAIN...SO INCLUSION IN THE CODED FORECASTS
IS PRECLUDED. FRIES

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031216
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
816 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MORNING UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHEAST
NEAR MERCER AND GROVE CITY. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
THINKING.

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES...IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL KEEP
IN SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE TODAY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A K INDEX IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND MU CAPES PUSHING OVER 1500J/KG. WITH
LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC FLOW IN THE CURRENT REGIME...SHEAR VALUES ARE
NOT IMPRESSIVE...LEADING ME TO BELIEVE THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS THUS
LEADING TO A SHORT LIFE SPAN. THE WEAK FLOW ALSO MEANS THAT
STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING. PWATS REMAIN NEAR 1.5 INCHES...SO A
HEAVY DOWNPOUR IS POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY END THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUES ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF PIT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ON SATURDAY AS RIDGE EXPANDS
EASTWARD. LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS PA UNDER
STRENGTHENING RIDGE. DON`T EXPECT ANY DIURNAL ACTIVITY
SATURDAY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE.

MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH COLD FRONT LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR FOG IS BECOMING MORE COMMON EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOCAL
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST AROUND KFKL AND KDUJ THROUGH
SUNRISE. FOG SHOULD AGAIN QUICKLY MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE...ALLOWING
FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL AGAIN
BE EXCEEDINGLY LIGHT AS STEERING FLOW IS VERY WEAK.
ADDITIONALLY...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY TRANSLATES TO
THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED
AND TIMING FAR FROM CERTAIN...SO INCLUSION IN THE CODED FORECASTS
IS PRECLUDED. FRIES

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031216
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
816 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MORNING UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHEAST
NEAR MERCER AND GROVE CITY. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
THINKING.

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES...IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL KEEP
IN SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE TODAY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A K INDEX IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND MU CAPES PUSHING OVER 1500J/KG. WITH
LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC FLOW IN THE CURRENT REGIME...SHEAR VALUES ARE
NOT IMPRESSIVE...LEADING ME TO BELIEVE THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS THUS
LEADING TO A SHORT LIFE SPAN. THE WEAK FLOW ALSO MEANS THAT
STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING. PWATS REMAIN NEAR 1.5 INCHES...SO A
HEAVY DOWNPOUR IS POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY END THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUES ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF PIT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ON SATURDAY AS RIDGE EXPANDS
EASTWARD. LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS PA UNDER
STRENGTHENING RIDGE. DON`T EXPECT ANY DIURNAL ACTIVITY
SATURDAY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE.

MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH COLD FRONT LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR FOG IS BECOMING MORE COMMON EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOCAL
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST AROUND KFKL AND KDUJ THROUGH
SUNRISE. FOG SHOULD AGAIN QUICKLY MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE...ALLOWING
FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL AGAIN
BE EXCEEDINGLY LIGHT AS STEERING FLOW IS VERY WEAK.
ADDITIONALLY...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY TRANSLATES TO
THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED
AND TIMING FAR FROM CERTAIN...SO INCLUSION IN THE CODED FORECASTS
IS PRECLUDED. FRIES

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031216
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
816 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MORNING UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHEAST
NEAR MERCER AND GROVE CITY. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
THINKING.

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES...IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL KEEP
IN SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE TODAY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A K INDEX IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND MU CAPES PUSHING OVER 1500J/KG. WITH
LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC FLOW IN THE CURRENT REGIME...SHEAR VALUES ARE
NOT IMPRESSIVE...LEADING ME TO BELIEVE THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS THUS
LEADING TO A SHORT LIFE SPAN. THE WEAK FLOW ALSO MEANS THAT
STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING. PWATS REMAIN NEAR 1.5 INCHES...SO A
HEAVY DOWNPOUR IS POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY END THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUES ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF PIT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ON SATURDAY AS RIDGE EXPANDS
EASTWARD. LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS PA UNDER
STRENGTHENING RIDGE. DON`T EXPECT ANY DIURNAL ACTIVITY
SATURDAY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE.

MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH COLD FRONT LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR FOG IS BECOMING MORE COMMON EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOCAL
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST AROUND KFKL AND KDUJ THROUGH
SUNRISE. FOG SHOULD AGAIN QUICKLY MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE...ALLOWING
FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL AGAIN
BE EXCEEDINGLY LIGHT AS STEERING FLOW IS VERY WEAK.
ADDITIONALLY...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY TRANSLATES TO
THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED
AND TIMING FAR FROM CERTAIN...SO INCLUSION IN THE CODED FORECASTS
IS PRECLUDED. FRIES

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031216
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
816 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MORNING UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHEAST
NEAR MERCER AND GROVE CITY. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
THINKING.

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES...IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL KEEP
IN SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE TODAY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A K INDEX IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND MU CAPES PUSHING OVER 1500J/KG. WITH
LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC FLOW IN THE CURRENT REGIME...SHEAR VALUES ARE
NOT IMPRESSIVE...LEADING ME TO BELIEVE THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS THUS
LEADING TO A SHORT LIFE SPAN. THE WEAK FLOW ALSO MEANS THAT
STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING. PWATS REMAIN NEAR 1.5 INCHES...SO A
HEAVY DOWNPOUR IS POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY END THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUES ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF PIT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ON SATURDAY AS RIDGE EXPANDS
EASTWARD. LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS PA UNDER
STRENGTHENING RIDGE. DON`T EXPECT ANY DIURNAL ACTIVITY
SATURDAY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE.

MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH COLD FRONT LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR FOG IS BECOMING MORE COMMON EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOCAL
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST AROUND KFKL AND KDUJ THROUGH
SUNRISE. FOG SHOULD AGAIN QUICKLY MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE...ALLOWING
FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL AGAIN
BE EXCEEDINGLY LIGHT AS STEERING FLOW IS VERY WEAK.
ADDITIONALLY...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY TRANSLATES TO
THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED
AND TIMING FAR FROM CERTAIN...SO INCLUSION IN THE CODED FORECASTS
IS PRECLUDED. FRIES

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPHI 031044
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
644 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS THEN
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY ARRIVE LATER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OFF THE COAST AROUND 630 AM. THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD DRIFT BACK INLAND AND OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WAS A WEAK NORTHWEST TO NORTH SURFACE FLOW
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH.

WE SHOULD REMAIN PRECIPITATION-FREE FOR THIS MORNING. WE WILL
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN MUCH OF OUR REGION. THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST
INSTABILITY IN OUR FORECAST AREA WILL EXTEND FROM THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY REGION UP INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. HOWEVER, THE SURFACE
TROUGH MAY PROVIDE A TRIGGER ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. REGARDLESS, THE
CHANCE OF RAIN IS RATHER LOW AT ANY GIVEN SPOT.

THE AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE WARM. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S AT MOST LOCATIONS. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 80S IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF THE
POCONOS AND NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY, AS WELL AS IN THE COMMUNITIES
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY TONIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AND WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH IS ANTICIPATED TO
DROP THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
ENHANCE OUR CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
STABILIZE GRADUALLY DURING THE NIGHT.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A RIDGE SLIDING EASTWARD OVER
OUR AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO
FLATTEN OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. OVERALL, THIS PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR
WARMTH AND DRYNESS ALTHOUGH A BRIEF BREAK OCCURS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE REGION NEEDS
RAIN, HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THE CHCS ARE RATHER LOW GIVEN NO
ORGANIZED SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH. WE USED A MODEL/CONTINUITY BLEND
FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY, WITH A 00Z WPC GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY BLEND
THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE AFTER ADDITIONAL
COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE SHIFTING
WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD THEREFORE BE
SHIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD WITH TIME AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
TO BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BEING FROM THE EAST OR NORTHEAST, AND WITH MORE OF AN OCEAN
INFLUENCE SOME COOLING OF THE AIR MASS IS ANTICIPATED. THE DRIER
AIR MAY WIN OUT AND THEREFORE DESPITE THE ONSHORE FLOW WE SHOULD
HAVE SOME DECREASE IN THE CLOUDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AREAS. HOWEVER IF THE TRANSITION IS DELAYED OR IS NOT CLEAN LIKE
SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS, THEN A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS MAY BE
POSSIBLE BEFORE THE DRIER AIR PRESSES FARTHER SOUTH. IF THIS WERE
TO OCCUR, THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SHOULD
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHC. SINCE THE PROSPECTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS ON THE LOWER SIDE, WE KEPT THE POPS AT OR BELOW
LOW CHC, WITH THE BETTER CHC LOOKING LIKE THE WESTERN ZONES TO
PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A WINDOW WHERE
BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE IDEA
OF MORE CLOUDINESS/LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WAS INCORPORATED INTO THE
SKY GRIDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT, MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CRESTS ACROSS
THE AREA, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EASE EASTWARD. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE ONSHORE FLOW TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY.
THERE COULD BE SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES TO START SATURDAY DEPENDING ON THE DRY AIR PUSH,
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED ATTM. WE START TO
LOSE THE COOLER ONSHORE INFLUENCE, AND THEREFORE THE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO REBOUND SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING NEAR
THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER SHOULD FLATTEN THE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALSO
FORCE HIGH PRESSURE MORE OFFSHORE, AND A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
GRADUALLY SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY LOOKS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY, THEREFORE THE
CHCS FOR CONVECTION SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN TO OUR WEST. SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING WELL INTO
CANADA AS A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE MIDWEST
WEDNESDAY. IT IS A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH THIS FEATURE THAT MAY END
UP MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA LATER WEDNESDAY. THERE IS MORE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES THIS FAR OUT. GIVEN
THE LINGERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, A SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE SURFACE FRONT MAY RESULT. AS THE FLOW IS MORE SOUTHERLY, A
RATHER WARM AIR MASS LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE WITH SOME INCREASE IN
THE DEW POINTS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SCATTERED MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH ABOUT 1300Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM 1300Z AND INTO THIS EVENING
AT OUR TAF SITES. SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT OUR REGION FROM
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THE CHANCE OF ANY OF
OUR TAF SITES BEING AFFECTED IS LOW AND WE WILL NOT MENTION THE
POTENTIAL IN THE TAF PRODUCTS.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO FAVOR THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST FOR TODAY
AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. HOWEVER, A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INLAND FROM THE OCEAN AND IT SHOULD AFFECT KACY THIS
AFTERNOON BRINGING THE WIND AROUND TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST THERE.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THIS EVENING SHOULD BECOME NORTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTH. WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR OVERALL. SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR THE KPHL AREA ON WEST AND SOUTH. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUD /MVFR/ DEVELOPMENT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT KRDG TO KPHL TO KACY
ON SOUTHWARD, HOWEVER THIS IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
EAST- NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS, WITH SOME GUSTINESS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY
10- 15 KNOTS SATURDAY, DIMINISHING AND BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY
SUNDAY BEFORE TURNING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING BEFORE IT DRIFTS INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT.

THE WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO BE VARIABLE THIS MORNING BEFORE
SETTLING INTO THE SOUTHEAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.
THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT.
SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 FEET
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH WAVES ON DELAWARE BAY BEING 2 FEET OR
LESS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES THROUGH, THE
WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AND INCREASE. IT
APPEARS THAT GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS OCCUR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON
THE COASTAL WATERS LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE A DECREASE BEGINS. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LOOKS TO BE NEEDED. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO BUILD THE SEAS TO
AROUND 5 FEET STARTING LATE FRIDAY ON THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THEY SHIFT FROM EAST-NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH. THE SEAS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW HIGH THEY GET
ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO



000
FXUS61 KPHI 031044
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
644 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS THEN
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY ARRIVE LATER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OFF THE COAST AROUND 630 AM. THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD DRIFT BACK INLAND AND OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WAS A WEAK NORTHWEST TO NORTH SURFACE FLOW
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH.

WE SHOULD REMAIN PRECIPITATION-FREE FOR THIS MORNING. WE WILL
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN MUCH OF OUR REGION. THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST
INSTABILITY IN OUR FORECAST AREA WILL EXTEND FROM THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY REGION UP INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. HOWEVER, THE SURFACE
TROUGH MAY PROVIDE A TRIGGER ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. REGARDLESS, THE
CHANCE OF RAIN IS RATHER LOW AT ANY GIVEN SPOT.

THE AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE WARM. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S AT MOST LOCATIONS. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 80S IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF THE
POCONOS AND NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY, AS WELL AS IN THE COMMUNITIES
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY TONIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AND WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH IS ANTICIPATED TO
DROP THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
ENHANCE OUR CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
STABILIZE GRADUALLY DURING THE NIGHT.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A RIDGE SLIDING EASTWARD OVER
OUR AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO
FLATTEN OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. OVERALL, THIS PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR
WARMTH AND DRYNESS ALTHOUGH A BRIEF BREAK OCCURS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE REGION NEEDS
RAIN, HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THE CHCS ARE RATHER LOW GIVEN NO
ORGANIZED SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH. WE USED A MODEL/CONTINUITY BLEND
FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY, WITH A 00Z WPC GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY BLEND
THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE AFTER ADDITIONAL
COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE SHIFTING
WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD THEREFORE BE
SHIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD WITH TIME AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
TO BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BEING FROM THE EAST OR NORTHEAST, AND WITH MORE OF AN OCEAN
INFLUENCE SOME COOLING OF THE AIR MASS IS ANTICIPATED. THE DRIER
AIR MAY WIN OUT AND THEREFORE DESPITE THE ONSHORE FLOW WE SHOULD
HAVE SOME DECREASE IN THE CLOUDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AREAS. HOWEVER IF THE TRANSITION IS DELAYED OR IS NOT CLEAN LIKE
SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS, THEN A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS MAY BE
POSSIBLE BEFORE THE DRIER AIR PRESSES FARTHER SOUTH. IF THIS WERE
TO OCCUR, THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SHOULD
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHC. SINCE THE PROSPECTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS ON THE LOWER SIDE, WE KEPT THE POPS AT OR BELOW
LOW CHC, WITH THE BETTER CHC LOOKING LIKE THE WESTERN ZONES TO
PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A WINDOW WHERE
BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE IDEA
OF MORE CLOUDINESS/LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WAS INCORPORATED INTO THE
SKY GRIDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT, MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CRESTS ACROSS
THE AREA, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EASE EASTWARD. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE ONSHORE FLOW TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY.
THERE COULD BE SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES TO START SATURDAY DEPENDING ON THE DRY AIR PUSH,
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED ATTM. WE START TO
LOSE THE COOLER ONSHORE INFLUENCE, AND THEREFORE THE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO REBOUND SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING NEAR
THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER SHOULD FLATTEN THE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALSO
FORCE HIGH PRESSURE MORE OFFSHORE, AND A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
GRADUALLY SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY LOOKS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY, THEREFORE THE
CHCS FOR CONVECTION SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN TO OUR WEST. SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING WELL INTO
CANADA AS A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE MIDWEST
WEDNESDAY. IT IS A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH THIS FEATURE THAT MAY END
UP MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA LATER WEDNESDAY. THERE IS MORE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES THIS FAR OUT. GIVEN
THE LINGERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, A SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE SURFACE FRONT MAY RESULT. AS THE FLOW IS MORE SOUTHERLY, A
RATHER WARM AIR MASS LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE WITH SOME INCREASE IN
THE DEW POINTS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SCATTERED MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH ABOUT 1300Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM 1300Z AND INTO THIS EVENING
AT OUR TAF SITES. SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT OUR REGION FROM
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THE CHANCE OF ANY OF
OUR TAF SITES BEING AFFECTED IS LOW AND WE WILL NOT MENTION THE
POTENTIAL IN THE TAF PRODUCTS.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO FAVOR THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST FOR TODAY
AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. HOWEVER, A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INLAND FROM THE OCEAN AND IT SHOULD AFFECT KACY THIS
AFTERNOON BRINGING THE WIND AROUND TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST THERE.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THIS EVENING SHOULD BECOME NORTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTH. WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR OVERALL. SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR THE KPHL AREA ON WEST AND SOUTH. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUD /MVFR/ DEVELOPMENT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT KRDG TO KPHL TO KACY
ON SOUTHWARD, HOWEVER THIS IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
EAST- NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS, WITH SOME GUSTINESS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY
10- 15 KNOTS SATURDAY, DIMINISHING AND BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY
SUNDAY BEFORE TURNING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING BEFORE IT DRIFTS INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT.

THE WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO BE VARIABLE THIS MORNING BEFORE
SETTLING INTO THE SOUTHEAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.
THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT.
SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 FEET
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH WAVES ON DELAWARE BAY BEING 2 FEET OR
LESS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES THROUGH, THE
WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AND INCREASE. IT
APPEARS THAT GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS OCCUR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON
THE COASTAL WATERS LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE A DECREASE BEGINS. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LOOKS TO BE NEEDED. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO BUILD THE SEAS TO
AROUND 5 FEET STARTING LATE FRIDAY ON THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THEY SHIFT FROM EAST-NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH. THE SEAS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW HIGH THEY GET
ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO




000
FXUS61 KPHI 031044
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
644 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS THEN
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY ARRIVE LATER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OFF THE COAST AROUND 630 AM. THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD DRIFT BACK INLAND AND OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WAS A WEAK NORTHWEST TO NORTH SURFACE FLOW
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH.

WE SHOULD REMAIN PRECIPITATION-FREE FOR THIS MORNING. WE WILL
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN MUCH OF OUR REGION. THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST
INSTABILITY IN OUR FORECAST AREA WILL EXTEND FROM THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY REGION UP INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. HOWEVER, THE SURFACE
TROUGH MAY PROVIDE A TRIGGER ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. REGARDLESS, THE
CHANCE OF RAIN IS RATHER LOW AT ANY GIVEN SPOT.

THE AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE WARM. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S AT MOST LOCATIONS. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 80S IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF THE
POCONOS AND NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY, AS WELL AS IN THE COMMUNITIES
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY TONIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AND WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH IS ANTICIPATED TO
DROP THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
ENHANCE OUR CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
STABILIZE GRADUALLY DURING THE NIGHT.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A RIDGE SLIDING EASTWARD OVER
OUR AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO
FLATTEN OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. OVERALL, THIS PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR
WARMTH AND DRYNESS ALTHOUGH A BRIEF BREAK OCCURS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE REGION NEEDS
RAIN, HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THE CHCS ARE RATHER LOW GIVEN NO
ORGANIZED SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH. WE USED A MODEL/CONTINUITY BLEND
FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY, WITH A 00Z WPC GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY BLEND
THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE AFTER ADDITIONAL
COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE SHIFTING
WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD THEREFORE BE
SHIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD WITH TIME AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
TO BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BEING FROM THE EAST OR NORTHEAST, AND WITH MORE OF AN OCEAN
INFLUENCE SOME COOLING OF THE AIR MASS IS ANTICIPATED. THE DRIER
AIR MAY WIN OUT AND THEREFORE DESPITE THE ONSHORE FLOW WE SHOULD
HAVE SOME DECREASE IN THE CLOUDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AREAS. HOWEVER IF THE TRANSITION IS DELAYED OR IS NOT CLEAN LIKE
SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS, THEN A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS MAY BE
POSSIBLE BEFORE THE DRIER AIR PRESSES FARTHER SOUTH. IF THIS WERE
TO OCCUR, THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SHOULD
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHC. SINCE THE PROSPECTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS ON THE LOWER SIDE, WE KEPT THE POPS AT OR BELOW
LOW CHC, WITH THE BETTER CHC LOOKING LIKE THE WESTERN ZONES TO
PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A WINDOW WHERE
BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE IDEA
OF MORE CLOUDINESS/LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WAS INCORPORATED INTO THE
SKY GRIDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT, MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CRESTS ACROSS
THE AREA, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EASE EASTWARD. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE ONSHORE FLOW TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY.
THERE COULD BE SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES TO START SATURDAY DEPENDING ON THE DRY AIR PUSH,
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED ATTM. WE START TO
LOSE THE COOLER ONSHORE INFLUENCE, AND THEREFORE THE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO REBOUND SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING NEAR
THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER SHOULD FLATTEN THE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALSO
FORCE HIGH PRESSURE MORE OFFSHORE, AND A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
GRADUALLY SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY LOOKS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY, THEREFORE THE
CHCS FOR CONVECTION SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN TO OUR WEST. SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING WELL INTO
CANADA AS A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE MIDWEST
WEDNESDAY. IT IS A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH THIS FEATURE THAT MAY END
UP MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA LATER WEDNESDAY. THERE IS MORE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES THIS FAR OUT. GIVEN
THE LINGERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, A SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE SURFACE FRONT MAY RESULT. AS THE FLOW IS MORE SOUTHERLY, A
RATHER WARM AIR MASS LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE WITH SOME INCREASE IN
THE DEW POINTS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SCATTERED MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH ABOUT 1300Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM 1300Z AND INTO THIS EVENING
AT OUR TAF SITES. SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT OUR REGION FROM
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THE CHANCE OF ANY OF
OUR TAF SITES BEING AFFECTED IS LOW AND WE WILL NOT MENTION THE
POTENTIAL IN THE TAF PRODUCTS.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO FAVOR THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST FOR TODAY
AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. HOWEVER, A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INLAND FROM THE OCEAN AND IT SHOULD AFFECT KACY THIS
AFTERNOON BRINGING THE WIND AROUND TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST THERE.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THIS EVENING SHOULD BECOME NORTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTH. WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR OVERALL. SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR THE KPHL AREA ON WEST AND SOUTH. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUD /MVFR/ DEVELOPMENT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT KRDG TO KPHL TO KACY
ON SOUTHWARD, HOWEVER THIS IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
EAST- NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS, WITH SOME GUSTINESS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY
10- 15 KNOTS SATURDAY, DIMINISHING AND BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY
SUNDAY BEFORE TURNING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING BEFORE IT DRIFTS INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT.

THE WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO BE VARIABLE THIS MORNING BEFORE
SETTLING INTO THE SOUTHEAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.
THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT.
SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 FEET
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH WAVES ON DELAWARE BAY BEING 2 FEET OR
LESS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES THROUGH, THE
WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AND INCREASE. IT
APPEARS THAT GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS OCCUR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON
THE COASTAL WATERS LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE A DECREASE BEGINS. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LOOKS TO BE NEEDED. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO BUILD THE SEAS TO
AROUND 5 FEET STARTING LATE FRIDAY ON THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THEY SHIFT FROM EAST-NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH. THE SEAS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW HIGH THEY GET
ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO



000
FXUS61 KPHI 031044
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
644 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS THEN
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY ARRIVE LATER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OFF THE COAST AROUND 630 AM. THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD DRIFT BACK INLAND AND OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WAS A WEAK NORTHWEST TO NORTH SURFACE FLOW
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH.

WE SHOULD REMAIN PRECIPITATION-FREE FOR THIS MORNING. WE WILL
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN MUCH OF OUR REGION. THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST
INSTABILITY IN OUR FORECAST AREA WILL EXTEND FROM THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY REGION UP INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. HOWEVER, THE SURFACE
TROUGH MAY PROVIDE A TRIGGER ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. REGARDLESS, THE
CHANCE OF RAIN IS RATHER LOW AT ANY GIVEN SPOT.

THE AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE WARM. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S AT MOST LOCATIONS. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 80S IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF THE
POCONOS AND NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY, AS WELL AS IN THE COMMUNITIES
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY TONIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AND WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH IS ANTICIPATED TO
DROP THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
ENHANCE OUR CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
STABILIZE GRADUALLY DURING THE NIGHT.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A RIDGE SLIDING EASTWARD OVER
OUR AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO
FLATTEN OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. OVERALL, THIS PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR
WARMTH AND DRYNESS ALTHOUGH A BRIEF BREAK OCCURS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE REGION NEEDS
RAIN, HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THE CHCS ARE RATHER LOW GIVEN NO
ORGANIZED SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH. WE USED A MODEL/CONTINUITY BLEND
FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY, WITH A 00Z WPC GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY BLEND
THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE AFTER ADDITIONAL
COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE SHIFTING
WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD THEREFORE BE
SHIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD WITH TIME AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
TO BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BEING FROM THE EAST OR NORTHEAST, AND WITH MORE OF AN OCEAN
INFLUENCE SOME COOLING OF THE AIR MASS IS ANTICIPATED. THE DRIER
AIR MAY WIN OUT AND THEREFORE DESPITE THE ONSHORE FLOW WE SHOULD
HAVE SOME DECREASE IN THE CLOUDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AREAS. HOWEVER IF THE TRANSITION IS DELAYED OR IS NOT CLEAN LIKE
SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS, THEN A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS MAY BE
POSSIBLE BEFORE THE DRIER AIR PRESSES FARTHER SOUTH. IF THIS WERE
TO OCCUR, THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SHOULD
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHC. SINCE THE PROSPECTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS ON THE LOWER SIDE, WE KEPT THE POPS AT OR BELOW
LOW CHC, WITH THE BETTER CHC LOOKING LIKE THE WESTERN ZONES TO
PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A WINDOW WHERE
BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE IDEA
OF MORE CLOUDINESS/LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WAS INCORPORATED INTO THE
SKY GRIDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT, MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CRESTS ACROSS
THE AREA, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EASE EASTWARD. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE ONSHORE FLOW TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY.
THERE COULD BE SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES TO START SATURDAY DEPENDING ON THE DRY AIR PUSH,
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED ATTM. WE START TO
LOSE THE COOLER ONSHORE INFLUENCE, AND THEREFORE THE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO REBOUND SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING NEAR
THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER SHOULD FLATTEN THE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALSO
FORCE HIGH PRESSURE MORE OFFSHORE, AND A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
GRADUALLY SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY LOOKS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY, THEREFORE THE
CHCS FOR CONVECTION SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN TO OUR WEST. SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING WELL INTO
CANADA AS A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE MIDWEST
WEDNESDAY. IT IS A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH THIS FEATURE THAT MAY END
UP MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA LATER WEDNESDAY. THERE IS MORE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES THIS FAR OUT. GIVEN
THE LINGERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, A SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE SURFACE FRONT MAY RESULT. AS THE FLOW IS MORE SOUTHERLY, A
RATHER WARM AIR MASS LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE WITH SOME INCREASE IN
THE DEW POINTS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SCATTERED MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH ABOUT 1300Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM 1300Z AND INTO THIS EVENING
AT OUR TAF SITES. SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT OUR REGION FROM
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THE CHANCE OF ANY OF
OUR TAF SITES BEING AFFECTED IS LOW AND WE WILL NOT MENTION THE
POTENTIAL IN THE TAF PRODUCTS.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO FAVOR THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST FOR TODAY
AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. HOWEVER, A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INLAND FROM THE OCEAN AND IT SHOULD AFFECT KACY THIS
AFTERNOON BRINGING THE WIND AROUND TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST THERE.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THIS EVENING SHOULD BECOME NORTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTH. WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR OVERALL. SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR THE KPHL AREA ON WEST AND SOUTH. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUD /MVFR/ DEVELOPMENT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT KRDG TO KPHL TO KACY
ON SOUTHWARD, HOWEVER THIS IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
EAST- NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS, WITH SOME GUSTINESS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY
10- 15 KNOTS SATURDAY, DIMINISHING AND BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY
SUNDAY BEFORE TURNING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING BEFORE IT DRIFTS INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT.

THE WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO BE VARIABLE THIS MORNING BEFORE
SETTLING INTO THE SOUTHEAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.
THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT.
SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 FEET
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH WAVES ON DELAWARE BAY BEING 2 FEET OR
LESS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES THROUGH, THE
WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AND INCREASE. IT
APPEARS THAT GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS OCCUR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON
THE COASTAL WATERS LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE A DECREASE BEGINS. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LOOKS TO BE NEEDED. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO BUILD THE SEAS TO
AROUND 5 FEET STARTING LATE FRIDAY ON THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THEY SHIFT FROM EAST-NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH. THE SEAS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW HIGH THEY GET
ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031039
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
639 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST
STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A SHORTWAVE DROPPING OVER
THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH SUPPRESSED
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO
NRN VA WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY. EARLIER SHOWERS HAVE
PUSHED SOUTH OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER SRN VA/NE NC...WITH
PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE.

FOR TODAY...FOG AND STRATUS WILL BURN OFF/LIFT SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK. SHORTWAVE DROPS OVER NE NC LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE SFC TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
LOCAL AREA. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SFC
TROUGH AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES TO WARRANT ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEAST.
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...BUT HI-RES MODELS KEEP CONVECTION WEST OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WEAK FLOW/SHEAR WILL LIMIT OVERALL ORGANIZATION.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO WEAK FLOW.
SIMILAR H85 TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO
WILL AGAIN RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S (UPPER 80S ALONG
THE COAST). HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL APPROACH 100 DEGS. SKY AVERAGES
PARTLY CLOUDY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS DURING THE SHORT
TERM. A WEAKNESS UNDER THE RIDGE LOCATES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...RESULTING IN WEAK FLOW ALOFT. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE OVER
ERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WILL ALLOW STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD SWD INTO NEW ENGLAND...PUSHING A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE
REGION FRI MORNING-AFTERNOON. SFC WINDS TURN TO THE NE
FRI...RESULTING IN A COOL DOWN. A WARM/MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS (SREF MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG) WILL REMAIN OVER THE
LOCAL AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. MORE STABLE ALONG THE COAST DUE
TO ONSHORE FLOW. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS EAST
AND CENTRAL...BUT INCREASED TO SOLID CHANCE OVER THE PIEDMONT AS
WEAK VORT MAXIMA DROP OVER THE REGION. WEAK FLOW AND EFF SHEAR WILL
RESULT IN LITTLE ORGANIZATION...BUT ALSO LITTLE STORM MOTION. PWATS
AROUND 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES AND CORFIDI/MBE VECTORS AOB 5 KT WILL FAVOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY IS
EXPECTED FRI THANKS TO NE SFC WINDS. THICKNESS ALSO DROP
OFF...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE MID 80S NORTH TO AROUND 90 SOUTH.
PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS WINDS
PICK UP FROM THE NE. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH NEAR THE COAST LATE FRI
NIGHT. DRIER AIR MASS USHERS INTO THE REGION SAT...LIMITING HIGHEST
POPS TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ALONG REMNANT COASTAL BOUNDARY. COOL AND
BREEZY START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S. GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH SE AND E PORTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY WX WITH SFC HI PRES IN
THE VICINITY. FOR SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...NE FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE
FA AS SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVER THE NRN MID ATLC. WITH SOME MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER SE
AREAS SAT NGT. TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60S SAT NGT AND REACH ONLY
THE LO/MID 80S SUN AFTN. FLOW BCMS ELY MON THAN SLY BY TUE AND
WED AS THE HI SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LO/MID 80S MON TO MID/UPR 80S TUE
AND WED. BULK OF PCPN IS EXPECTED TO STAY S OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD WITH ANY CHANCE OF RAIN (20%) CONFINED TO EXTREME
SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
XPCT ANY FOG TO QUICKLY BURN OFF WITH VFR CNDTNS XPCTD THRU THE
DAY (SCT CU/CI). WNDS W-NW WNDS AOB 10 KTS THRU NOON WITH CSTL
TAF SITES SHFTG TO AN ONSHORE DRCTN DUE TO A SEA BREEZE. ONLY
ISLTD CONVECTION CHC TDY SO JUST INDCTD SCT CU FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION PSBL AGAIN FRIDAY ALONG BKDR
CDFRNT PASSAGE. DRY WEATHER AND VFR CNDTNS THROUGH THE WKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN SHORT AS WINDS REMAIN BLO 15 KTS THRU FRI MORNING.
WND DRCTN RTHR CHAOTIC DUE TO A LINGERING TROF TODAY. XPCT THE W-NW
FLOW THIS MORN TO BECOME ONSHORE THIS AFTRN DUE TO LCL SEA BREEZES
THEN BACK TO A VRBL DRCTN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRS REMAINS OVRHD.

MODELS PROG A 1025MB HIGH ACROSS THE GT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND
LATE FRI THRU SAT. THIS ALLOWS A BKDR CDFRNT TO PUSH S ACROSS THE
WTRS FRI AFTRN AND NIGHT. INCRG PRS GRDNT BTWN THE HIGH TO THE NRTH
AND LOW PRS DVLPNG OFF THE SERN CST WILL RESULT IN AN XTNDD PRD OF
NE WNDS THIS WKEND. LTST DATA CONTS TO SUGGEST SOLID SCA CNDTNS
ACROSS THE CSTL WTRS AND SRN CHES BAY DVLPNG N-S FRI NIGHT AND CONTG
SAT BEFORE DMNSHG SAT NIGHT.  WINDS/WAVES/SEAS CONT TO DECREASE SUN
AS THE SFC HI WEAKENS AND FLOW BCMS MORE OUT OF THE E THAN NE. WINDS
THEN TURN TO THE SE THEN S MON INTO TUE WITH SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME. HELD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE
SINCE THIS IS A 4TH-5TH PRD EVENT BUT DO XPCT SCA HEADLINES TO BE
ISSUED WITH LATER FCSTS.

IN ADDITION...THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NEARSHORE WAVES
OF 3-4 FT WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE RIP CURRENT THREAT FOR THE HOLIDAY
WKEND. GUID CONTS TO BUILD TIDES TO BTWN 1/2 TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NRML BY
SAT...BUT REMAIN BLO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031039
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
639 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST
STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A SHORTWAVE DROPPING OVER
THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH SUPPRESSED
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO
NRN VA WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY. EARLIER SHOWERS HAVE
PUSHED SOUTH OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER SRN VA/NE NC...WITH
PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE.

FOR TODAY...FOG AND STRATUS WILL BURN OFF/LIFT SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK. SHORTWAVE DROPS OVER NE NC LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE SFC TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
LOCAL AREA. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SFC
TROUGH AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES TO WARRANT ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEAST.
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...BUT HI-RES MODELS KEEP CONVECTION WEST OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WEAK FLOW/SHEAR WILL LIMIT OVERALL ORGANIZATION.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO WEAK FLOW.
SIMILAR H85 TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO
WILL AGAIN RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S (UPPER 80S ALONG
THE COAST). HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL APPROACH 100 DEGS. SKY AVERAGES
PARTLY CLOUDY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS DURING THE SHORT
TERM. A WEAKNESS UNDER THE RIDGE LOCATES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...RESULTING IN WEAK FLOW ALOFT. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE OVER
ERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WILL ALLOW STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD SWD INTO NEW ENGLAND...PUSHING A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE
REGION FRI MORNING-AFTERNOON. SFC WINDS TURN TO THE NE
FRI...RESULTING IN A COOL DOWN. A WARM/MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS (SREF MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG) WILL REMAIN OVER THE
LOCAL AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. MORE STABLE ALONG THE COAST DUE
TO ONSHORE FLOW. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS EAST
AND CENTRAL...BUT INCREASED TO SOLID CHANCE OVER THE PIEDMONT AS
WEAK VORT MAXIMA DROP OVER THE REGION. WEAK FLOW AND EFF SHEAR WILL
RESULT IN LITTLE ORGANIZATION...BUT ALSO LITTLE STORM MOTION. PWATS
AROUND 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES AND CORFIDI/MBE VECTORS AOB 5 KT WILL FAVOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY IS
EXPECTED FRI THANKS TO NE SFC WINDS. THICKNESS ALSO DROP
OFF...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE MID 80S NORTH TO AROUND 90 SOUTH.
PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS WINDS
PICK UP FROM THE NE. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH NEAR THE COAST LATE FRI
NIGHT. DRIER AIR MASS USHERS INTO THE REGION SAT...LIMITING HIGHEST
POPS TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ALONG REMNANT COASTAL BOUNDARY. COOL AND
BREEZY START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S. GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH SE AND E PORTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY WX WITH SFC HI PRES IN
THE VICINITY. FOR SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...NE FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE
FA AS SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVER THE NRN MID ATLC. WITH SOME MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER SE
AREAS SAT NGT. TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60S SAT NGT AND REACH ONLY
THE LO/MID 80S SUN AFTN. FLOW BCMS ELY MON THAN SLY BY TUE AND
WED AS THE HI SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LO/MID 80S MON TO MID/UPR 80S TUE
AND WED. BULK OF PCPN IS EXPECTED TO STAY S OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD WITH ANY CHANCE OF RAIN (20%) CONFINED TO EXTREME
SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
XPCT ANY FOG TO QUICKLY BURN OFF WITH VFR CNDTNS XPCTD THRU THE
DAY (SCT CU/CI). WNDS W-NW WNDS AOB 10 KTS THRU NOON WITH CSTL
TAF SITES SHFTG TO AN ONSHORE DRCTN DUE TO A SEA BREEZE. ONLY
ISLTD CONVECTION CHC TDY SO JUST INDCTD SCT CU FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION PSBL AGAIN FRIDAY ALONG BKDR
CDFRNT PASSAGE. DRY WEATHER AND VFR CNDTNS THROUGH THE WKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN SHORT AS WINDS REMAIN BLO 15 KTS THRU FRI MORNING.
WND DRCTN RTHR CHAOTIC DUE TO A LINGERING TROF TODAY. XPCT THE W-NW
FLOW THIS MORN TO BECOME ONSHORE THIS AFTRN DUE TO LCL SEA BREEZES
THEN BACK TO A VRBL DRCTN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRS REMAINS OVRHD.

MODELS PROG A 1025MB HIGH ACROSS THE GT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND
LATE FRI THRU SAT. THIS ALLOWS A BKDR CDFRNT TO PUSH S ACROSS THE
WTRS FRI AFTRN AND NIGHT. INCRG PRS GRDNT BTWN THE HIGH TO THE NRTH
AND LOW PRS DVLPNG OFF THE SERN CST WILL RESULT IN AN XTNDD PRD OF
NE WNDS THIS WKEND. LTST DATA CONTS TO SUGGEST SOLID SCA CNDTNS
ACROSS THE CSTL WTRS AND SRN CHES BAY DVLPNG N-S FRI NIGHT AND CONTG
SAT BEFORE DMNSHG SAT NIGHT.  WINDS/WAVES/SEAS CONT TO DECREASE SUN
AS THE SFC HI WEAKENS AND FLOW BCMS MORE OUT OF THE E THAN NE. WINDS
THEN TURN TO THE SE THEN S MON INTO TUE WITH SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME. HELD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE
SINCE THIS IS A 4TH-5TH PRD EVENT BUT DO XPCT SCA HEADLINES TO BE
ISSUED WITH LATER FCSTS.

IN ADDITION...THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NEARSHORE WAVES
OF 3-4 FT WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE RIP CURRENT THREAT FOR THE HOLIDAY
WKEND. GUID CONTS TO BUILD TIDES TO BTWN 1/2 TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NRML BY
SAT...BUT REMAIN BLO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030859
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
459 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES...IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL KEEP
IN SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE TODAY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A K INDEX IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND MU CAPES PUSHING OVER 1500J/KG. WITH
LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC FLOW IN THE CURRENT REGIME...SHEAR VALUES ARE
NOT IMPRESSIVE...LEADING ME TO BELIEVE THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS THUS
LEADING TO A SHORT LIFE SPAN. THE WEAK FLOW ALSO MEANS THAT
STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING. PWATS REMAIN NEAR 1.5 INCHES...SO A
HEAVY DOWNPOUR IS POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY END THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUES ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF PIT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ON SATURDAY AS RIDGE EXPANDS
EASTWARD. LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS PA UNDER
STRENGTHENING RIDGE. DON`T EXPECT ANY DIURNAL ACTIVITY
SATURDAY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE.

MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH COLD FRONT LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR FOG IS BECOMING MORE COMMON EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOCAL
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST AROUND KFKL AND KDUJ THROUGH
SUNRISE. FOG SHOULD AGAIN QUICKLY MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE...ALLOWING
FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL AGAIN
BE EXCEEDINGLY LIGHT AS STEERING FLOW IS VERY WEAK.
ADDITIONALLY...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY TRANSLATES TO
THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED
AND TIMING FAR FROM CERTAIN...SO INCLUSION IN THE CODED FORECASTS
IS PRECLUDED. FRIES

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030859
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
459 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES...IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL KEEP
IN SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE TODAY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A K INDEX IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND MU CAPES PUSHING OVER 1500J/KG. WITH
LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC FLOW IN THE CURRENT REGIME...SHEAR VALUES ARE
NOT IMPRESSIVE...LEADING ME TO BELIEVE THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS THUS
LEADING TO A SHORT LIFE SPAN. THE WEAK FLOW ALSO MEANS THAT
STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING. PWATS REMAIN NEAR 1.5 INCHES...SO A
HEAVY DOWNPOUR IS POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY END THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUES ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF PIT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ON SATURDAY AS RIDGE EXPANDS
EASTWARD. LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS PA UNDER
STRENGTHENING RIDGE. DON`T EXPECT ANY DIURNAL ACTIVITY
SATURDAY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE.

MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH COLD FRONT LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR FOG IS BECOMING MORE COMMON EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOCAL
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST AROUND KFKL AND KDUJ THROUGH
SUNRISE. FOG SHOULD AGAIN QUICKLY MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE...ALLOWING
FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL AGAIN
BE EXCEEDINGLY LIGHT AS STEERING FLOW IS VERY WEAK.
ADDITIONALLY...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY TRANSLATES TO
THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED
AND TIMING FAR FROM CERTAIN...SO INCLUSION IN THE CODED FORECASTS
IS PRECLUDED. FRIES

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030859
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
459 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES...IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL KEEP
IN SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE TODAY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A K INDEX IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND MU CAPES PUSHING OVER 1500J/KG. WITH
LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC FLOW IN THE CURRENT REGIME...SHEAR VALUES ARE
NOT IMPRESSIVE...LEADING ME TO BELIEVE THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS THUS
LEADING TO A SHORT LIFE SPAN. THE WEAK FLOW ALSO MEANS THAT
STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING. PWATS REMAIN NEAR 1.5 INCHES...SO A
HEAVY DOWNPOUR IS POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY END THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUES ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF PIT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ON SATURDAY AS RIDGE EXPANDS
EASTWARD. LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS PA UNDER
STRENGTHENING RIDGE. DON`T EXPECT ANY DIURNAL ACTIVITY
SATURDAY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE.

MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH COLD FRONT LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR FOG IS BECOMING MORE COMMON EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOCAL
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST AROUND KFKL AND KDUJ THROUGH
SUNRISE. FOG SHOULD AGAIN QUICKLY MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE...ALLOWING
FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL AGAIN
BE EXCEEDINGLY LIGHT AS STEERING FLOW IS VERY WEAK.
ADDITIONALLY...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY TRANSLATES TO
THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED
AND TIMING FAR FROM CERTAIN...SO INCLUSION IN THE CODED FORECASTS
IS PRECLUDED. FRIES

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030859
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
459 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES...IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL KEEP
IN SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE TODAY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A K INDEX IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND MU CAPES PUSHING OVER 1500J/KG. WITH
LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC FLOW IN THE CURRENT REGIME...SHEAR VALUES ARE
NOT IMPRESSIVE...LEADING ME TO BELIEVE THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS THUS
LEADING TO A SHORT LIFE SPAN. THE WEAK FLOW ALSO MEANS THAT
STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING. PWATS REMAIN NEAR 1.5 INCHES...SO A
HEAVY DOWNPOUR IS POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY END THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUES ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF PIT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ON SATURDAY AS RIDGE EXPANDS
EASTWARD. LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS PA UNDER
STRENGTHENING RIDGE. DON`T EXPECT ANY DIURNAL ACTIVITY
SATURDAY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE.

MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH COLD FRONT LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR FOG IS BECOMING MORE COMMON EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOCAL
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST AROUND KFKL AND KDUJ THROUGH
SUNRISE. FOG SHOULD AGAIN QUICKLY MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE...ALLOWING
FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL AGAIN
BE EXCEEDINGLY LIGHT AS STEERING FLOW IS VERY WEAK.
ADDITIONALLY...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY TRANSLATES TO
THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED
AND TIMING FAR FROM CERTAIN...SO INCLUSION IN THE CODED FORECASTS
IS PRECLUDED. FRIES

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030859
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
459 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES...IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL KEEP
IN SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE TODAY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A K INDEX IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND MU CAPES PUSHING OVER 1500J/KG. WITH
LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC FLOW IN THE CURRENT REGIME...SHEAR VALUES ARE
NOT IMPRESSIVE...LEADING ME TO BELIEVE THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS THUS
LEADING TO A SHORT LIFE SPAN. THE WEAK FLOW ALSO MEANS THAT
STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING. PWATS REMAIN NEAR 1.5 INCHES...SO A
HEAVY DOWNPOUR IS POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY END THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUES ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF PIT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ON SATURDAY AS RIDGE EXPANDS
EASTWARD. LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS PA UNDER
STRENGTHENING RIDGE. DON`T EXPECT ANY DIURNAL ACTIVITY
SATURDAY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE.

MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH COLD FRONT LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR FOG IS BECOMING MORE COMMON EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOCAL
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST AROUND KFKL AND KDUJ THROUGH
SUNRISE. FOG SHOULD AGAIN QUICKLY MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE...ALLOWING
FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL AGAIN
BE EXCEEDINGLY LIGHT AS STEERING FLOW IS VERY WEAK.
ADDITIONALLY...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY TRANSLATES TO
THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED
AND TIMING FAR FROM CERTAIN...SO INCLUSION IN THE CODED FORECASTS
IS PRECLUDED. FRIES

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030859
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
459 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES...IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL KEEP
IN SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE TODAY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A K INDEX IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND MU CAPES PUSHING OVER 1500J/KG. WITH
LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC FLOW IN THE CURRENT REGIME...SHEAR VALUES ARE
NOT IMPRESSIVE...LEADING ME TO BELIEVE THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS THUS
LEADING TO A SHORT LIFE SPAN. THE WEAK FLOW ALSO MEANS THAT
STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING. PWATS REMAIN NEAR 1.5 INCHES...SO A
HEAVY DOWNPOUR IS POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY END THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUES ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF PIT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ON SATURDAY AS RIDGE EXPANDS
EASTWARD. LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS PA UNDER
STRENGTHENING RIDGE. DON`T EXPECT ANY DIURNAL ACTIVITY
SATURDAY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE.

MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH COLD FRONT LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR FOG IS BECOMING MORE COMMON EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOCAL
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST AROUND KFKL AND KDUJ THROUGH
SUNRISE. FOG SHOULD AGAIN QUICKLY MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE...ALLOWING
FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL AGAIN
BE EXCEEDINGLY LIGHT AS STEERING FLOW IS VERY WEAK.
ADDITIONALLY...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY TRANSLATES TO
THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED
AND TIMING FAR FROM CERTAIN...SO INCLUSION IN THE CODED FORECASTS
IS PRECLUDED. FRIES

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030859
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
459 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES...IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL KEEP
IN SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE TODAY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A K INDEX IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND MU CAPES PUSHING OVER 1500J/KG. WITH
LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC FLOW IN THE CURRENT REGIME...SHEAR VALUES ARE
NOT IMPRESSIVE...LEADING ME TO BELIEVE THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS THUS
LEADING TO A SHORT LIFE SPAN. THE WEAK FLOW ALSO MEANS THAT
STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING. PWATS REMAIN NEAR 1.5 INCHES...SO A
HEAVY DOWNPOUR IS POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY END THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUES ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF PIT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ON SATURDAY AS RIDGE EXPANDS
EASTWARD. LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS PA UNDER
STRENGTHENING RIDGE. DON`T EXPECT ANY DIURNAL ACTIVITY
SATURDAY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE.

MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH COLD FRONT LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR FOG IS BECOMING MORE COMMON EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOCAL
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST AROUND KFKL AND KDUJ THROUGH
SUNRISE. FOG SHOULD AGAIN QUICKLY MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE...ALLOWING
FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL AGAIN
BE EXCEEDINGLY LIGHT AS STEERING FLOW IS VERY WEAK.
ADDITIONALLY...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY TRANSLATES TO
THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED
AND TIMING FAR FROM CERTAIN...SO INCLUSION IN THE CODED FORECASTS
IS PRECLUDED. FRIES

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030859
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
459 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES...IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL KEEP
IN SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE TODAY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A K INDEX IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND MU CAPES PUSHING OVER 1500J/KG. WITH
LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC FLOW IN THE CURRENT REGIME...SHEAR VALUES ARE
NOT IMPRESSIVE...LEADING ME TO BELIEVE THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS THUS
LEADING TO A SHORT LIFE SPAN. THE WEAK FLOW ALSO MEANS THAT
STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING. PWATS REMAIN NEAR 1.5 INCHES...SO A
HEAVY DOWNPOUR IS POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY END THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUES ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF PIT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ON SATURDAY AS RIDGE EXPANDS
EASTWARD. LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS PA UNDER
STRENGTHENING RIDGE. DON`T EXPECT ANY DIURNAL ACTIVITY
SATURDAY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE.

MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH COLD FRONT LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR FOG IS BECOMING MORE COMMON EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOCAL
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST AROUND KFKL AND KDUJ THROUGH
SUNRISE. FOG SHOULD AGAIN QUICKLY MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE...ALLOWING
FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL AGAIN
BE EXCEEDINGLY LIGHT AS STEERING FLOW IS VERY WEAK.
ADDITIONALLY...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY TRANSLATES TO
THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED
AND TIMING FAR FROM CERTAIN...SO INCLUSION IN THE CODED FORECASTS
IS PRECLUDED. FRIES

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030859
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
459 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES...IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL KEEP
IN SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE TODAY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A K INDEX IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND MU CAPES PUSHING OVER 1500J/KG. WITH
LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC FLOW IN THE CURRENT REGIME...SHEAR VALUES ARE
NOT IMPRESSIVE...LEADING ME TO BELIEVE THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS THUS
LEADING TO A SHORT LIFE SPAN. THE WEAK FLOW ALSO MEANS THAT
STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING. PWATS REMAIN NEAR 1.5 INCHES...SO A
HEAVY DOWNPOUR IS POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY END THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUES ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF PIT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ON SATURDAY AS RIDGE EXPANDS
EASTWARD. LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS PA UNDER
STRENGTHENING RIDGE. DON`T EXPECT ANY DIURNAL ACTIVITY
SATURDAY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE.

MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH COLD FRONT LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR FOG IS BECOMING MORE COMMON EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOCAL
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST AROUND KFKL AND KDUJ THROUGH
SUNRISE. FOG SHOULD AGAIN QUICKLY MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE...ALLOWING
FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL AGAIN
BE EXCEEDINGLY LIGHT AS STEERING FLOW IS VERY WEAK.
ADDITIONALLY...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY TRANSLATES TO
THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED
AND TIMING FAR FROM CERTAIN...SO INCLUSION IN THE CODED FORECASTS
IS PRECLUDED. FRIES

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030859
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
459 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES...IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL KEEP
IN SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE TODAY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A K INDEX IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND MU CAPES PUSHING OVER 1500J/KG. WITH
LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC FLOW IN THE CURRENT REGIME...SHEAR VALUES ARE
NOT IMPRESSIVE...LEADING ME TO BELIEVE THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS THUS
LEADING TO A SHORT LIFE SPAN. THE WEAK FLOW ALSO MEANS THAT
STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING. PWATS REMAIN NEAR 1.5 INCHES...SO A
HEAVY DOWNPOUR IS POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY END THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUES ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF PIT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ON SATURDAY AS RIDGE EXPANDS
EASTWARD. LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS PA UNDER
STRENGTHENING RIDGE. DON`T EXPECT ANY DIURNAL ACTIVITY
SATURDAY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE.

MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH COLD FRONT LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR FOG IS BECOMING MORE COMMON EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOCAL
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST AROUND KFKL AND KDUJ THROUGH
SUNRISE. FOG SHOULD AGAIN QUICKLY MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE...ALLOWING
FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL AGAIN
BE EXCEEDINGLY LIGHT AS STEERING FLOW IS VERY WEAK.
ADDITIONALLY...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY TRANSLATES TO
THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED
AND TIMING FAR FROM CERTAIN...SO INCLUSION IN THE CODED FORECASTS
IS PRECLUDED. FRIES

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030801
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
401 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST
STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A SHORTWAVE DROPPING OVER
THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH SUPPRESSED
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO
NRN VA WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY. EARLIER SHOWERS HAVE
PUSHED SOUTH OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER SRN VA/NE NC...WITH
PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE.

FOR TODAY...FOG AND STRATUS WILL BURN OFF/LIFT SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK. SHORTWAVE DROPS OVER NE NC LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE SFC TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
LOCAL AREA. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SFC
TROUGH AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES TO WARRANT ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEAST.
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...BUT HI-RES MODELS KEEP CONVECTION WEST OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WEAK FLOW/SHEAR WILL LIMIT OVERALL ORGANIZATION.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO WEAK FLOW.
SIMILAR H85 TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO
WILL AGAIN RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S (UPPER 80S ALONG
THE COAST). HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL APPROACH 100 DEGS. SKY AVERAGES
PARTLY CLOUDY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS DURING THE SHORT
TERM. A WEAKNESS UNDER THE RIDGE LOCATES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...RESULTING IN WEAK FLOW ALOFT. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE OVER
ERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WILL ALLOW STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD SWD INTO NEW ENGLAND...PUSHING A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE
REGION FRI MORNING-AFTERNOON. SFC WINDS TURN TO THE NE
FRI...RESULTING IN A COOL DOWN. A WARM/MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS (SREF MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG) WILL REMAIN OVER THE
LOCAL AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. MORE STABLE ALONG THE COAST DUE
TO ONSHORE FLOW. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS EAST
AND CENTRAL...BUT INCREASED TO SOLID CHANCE OVER THE PIEDMONT AS
WEAK VORT MAXIMA DROP OVER THE REGION. WEAK FLOW AND EFF SHEAR WILL
RESULT IN LITTLE ORGANIZATION...BUT ALSO LITTLE STORM MOTION. PWATS
AROUND 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES AND CORFIDI/MBE VECTORS AOB 5 KT WILL FAVOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY IS
EXPECTED FRI THANKS TO NE SFC WINDS. THICKNESS ALSO DROP
OFF...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE MID 80S NORTH TO AROUND 90 SOUTH.
PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS WINDS
PICK UP FROM THE NE. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH NEAR THE COAST LATE FRI
NIGHT. DRIER AIR MASS USHERS INTO THE REGION SAT...LIMITING HIGHEST
POPS TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ALONG REMNANT COASTAL BOUNDARY. COOL AND
BREEZY START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S. GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH SE AND E PORTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY WX WITH SFC HI PRES IN
THE VICINITY. FOR SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...NE FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE
FA AS SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVER THE NRN MID ATLC. WITH SOME MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER SE
AREAS SAT NGT. TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60S SAT NGT AND REACH ONLY
THE LO/MID 80S SUN AFTN. FLOW BCMS ELY MON THAN SLY BY TUE AND
WED AS THE HI SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LO/MID 80S MON TO MID/UPR 80S TUE
AND WED. BULK OF PCPN IS EXPECTED TO STAY S OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD WITH ANY CHANCE OF RAIN (20%) CONFINED TO EXTREME
SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVECTION ASSCTD WITH A SERN MOVG TROF HAS MOVED INTO NC ERLY
THIS MORNING. SKIES QUICKLY CLR BEHIND THE CONVECTION. ATTN NOW
BECOMES ONE OF DETERMINING HOW MUCH FOG DVLPS BEFORE 12Z DUE TO
THE WET GRND AND NRLY SATURATED AIRMASS. MODELS OFFER UP DIFFERENT
SOLNS ON ANY FOG DVLPMNT SO INDICATED AT LEAST MVFR CNDTNS BY 12
XCPT AT ORF. GUID SUGGESTS LCL IFR VSBYS IN FOG PSBL AT BOTH SBY/ECG.

XPCT ANY FOG TO BURN OFF BY OR SHORTLY AFTR 12Z WITH VFR CNDTNS XPCTD
THRU THE DAY (SCT CU/CI). WNDS W-NW WNDS AOB 10 KTS THRU MID MORNING
WITH CSTL TAF SITES SHFTG TO AN ONSHORE DRCTN DUE TO A SEA BREEZE.
CONVECTION CHCS THIS AFTRN/EVE LOWER THAN YSTRDY SO JUST INDCTD SCT
CU FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION PSBL AGAIN FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER
AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN SHORT AS WINDS REMAIN BLO 15 KTS THRU FRI MORNING.
WND DRCTN RTHR CHAOTIC DUE TO A LINGERING TROF TODAY. XPCT THE W-NW
FLOW THIS MORN TO BECOME ONSHORE THIS AFTRN DUE TO LCL SEA BREEZES
THEN BACK TO A VRBL DRCTN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRS REMAINS OVRHD.

MODELS PROG A 1025MB HIGH ACROSS THE GT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND
LATE FRI THRU SAT. THIS ALLOWS A BKDR CDFRNT TO PUSH S ACROSS THE
WTRS FRI AFTRN AND NIGHT. INCRG PRS GRDNT BTWN THE HIGH TO THE NRTH
AND LOW PRS DVLPNG OFF THE SERN CST WILL RESULT IN AN XTNDD PRD OF
NE WNDS THIS WKEND. LTST DATA CONTS TO SUGGEST SOLID SCA CNDTNS
ACROSS THE CSTL WTRS AND SRN CHES BAY DVLPNG N-S FRI NIGHT AND CONTG
SAT BEFORE DMNSHG SAT NIGHT.  WINDS/WAVES/SEAS CONT TO DECREASE SUN
AS THE SFC HI WEAKENS AND FLOW BCMS MORE OUT OF THE E THAN NE. WINDS
THEN TURN TO THE SE THEN S MON INTO TUE WITH SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME. HELD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE
SINCE THIS IS A 4TH-5TH PRD EVENT BUT DO XPCT SCA HEADLINES TO BE
ISSUED WITH LATER FCSTS.

IN ADDITION...THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NEARSHORE WAVES
OF 3-4 FT WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE RIP CURRENT THREAT FOR THE HOLIDAY
WKEND. GUID CONTS TO BUILD TIDES TO BTWN 1/2 TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NRML BY
SAT...BUT REMAIN BLO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030759
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
359 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES...IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL KEEP
IN SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE TODAY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A K INDEX IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND MU CAPES PUSHING OVER 1500J/KG. WITH
LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC FLOW IN THE CURRENT REGIME...SHEAR VALUES ARE
NOT IMPRESSIVE...LEADING ME TO BELIEVE THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS THUS
LEADING TO A SHORT LIFE SPAN. THE WEAK FLOW ALSO MEANS THAT
STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING. PWATS REMAIN NEAR 1.5 INCHES...SO A
HEAVY DOWNPOUR IS POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY END THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUES ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF PIT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ON SATURDAY AS RIDGE EXPANDS
EASTWARD. LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS PA UNDER
STRENGTHENING RIDGE. DON`T EXPECT ANY DIURNAL ACTIVITY
SATURDAY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE.

MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH COLD FRONT LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AT SOME
LOCATIONS SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. WIDELY SCT TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030759
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
359 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES...IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL KEEP
IN SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE TODAY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A K INDEX IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND MU CAPES PUSHING OVER 1500J/KG. WITH
LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC FLOW IN THE CURRENT REGIME...SHEAR VALUES ARE
NOT IMPRESSIVE...LEADING ME TO BELIEVE THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS THUS
LEADING TO A SHORT LIFE SPAN. THE WEAK FLOW ALSO MEANS THAT
STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING. PWATS REMAIN NEAR 1.5 INCHES...SO A
HEAVY DOWNPOUR IS POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY END THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUES ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF PIT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ON SATURDAY AS RIDGE EXPANDS
EASTWARD. LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS PA UNDER
STRENGTHENING RIDGE. DON`T EXPECT ANY DIURNAL ACTIVITY
SATURDAY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE.

MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH COLD FRONT LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AT SOME
LOCATIONS SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. WIDELY SCT TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030759
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
359 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES...IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL KEEP
IN SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE TODAY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A K INDEX IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND MU CAPES PUSHING OVER 1500J/KG. WITH
LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC FLOW IN THE CURRENT REGIME...SHEAR VALUES ARE
NOT IMPRESSIVE...LEADING ME TO BELIEVE THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS THUS
LEADING TO A SHORT LIFE SPAN. THE WEAK FLOW ALSO MEANS THAT
STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING. PWATS REMAIN NEAR 1.5 INCHES...SO A
HEAVY DOWNPOUR IS POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY END THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUES ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF PIT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ON SATURDAY AS RIDGE EXPANDS
EASTWARD. LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS PA UNDER
STRENGTHENING RIDGE. DON`T EXPECT ANY DIURNAL ACTIVITY
SATURDAY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE.

MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH COLD FRONT LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AT SOME
LOCATIONS SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. WIDELY SCT TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030759
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
359 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES...IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL KEEP
IN SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE TODAY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A K INDEX IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND MU CAPES PUSHING OVER 1500J/KG. WITH
LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC FLOW IN THE CURRENT REGIME...SHEAR VALUES ARE
NOT IMPRESSIVE...LEADING ME TO BELIEVE THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS THUS
LEADING TO A SHORT LIFE SPAN. THE WEAK FLOW ALSO MEANS THAT
STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING. PWATS REMAIN NEAR 1.5 INCHES...SO A
HEAVY DOWNPOUR IS POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY END THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUES ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF PIT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ON SATURDAY AS RIDGE EXPANDS
EASTWARD. LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS PA UNDER
STRENGTHENING RIDGE. DON`T EXPECT ANY DIURNAL ACTIVITY
SATURDAY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE.

MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH COLD FRONT LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AT SOME
LOCATIONS SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. WIDELY SCT TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030759
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
359 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES...IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL KEEP
IN SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE TODAY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A K INDEX IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND MU CAPES PUSHING OVER 1500J/KG. WITH
LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC FLOW IN THE CURRENT REGIME...SHEAR VALUES ARE
NOT IMPRESSIVE...LEADING ME TO BELIEVE THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS THUS
LEADING TO A SHORT LIFE SPAN. THE WEAK FLOW ALSO MEANS THAT
STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING. PWATS REMAIN NEAR 1.5 INCHES...SO A
HEAVY DOWNPOUR IS POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY END THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUES ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF PIT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ON SATURDAY AS RIDGE EXPANDS
EASTWARD. LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS PA UNDER
STRENGTHENING RIDGE. DON`T EXPECT ANY DIURNAL ACTIVITY
SATURDAY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE.

MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH COLD FRONT LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AT SOME
LOCATIONS SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. WIDELY SCT TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030759
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
359 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES...IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL KEEP
IN SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE TODAY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A K INDEX IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND MU CAPES PUSHING OVER 1500J/KG. WITH
LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC FLOW IN THE CURRENT REGIME...SHEAR VALUES ARE
NOT IMPRESSIVE...LEADING ME TO BELIEVE THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS THUS
LEADING TO A SHORT LIFE SPAN. THE WEAK FLOW ALSO MEANS THAT
STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING. PWATS REMAIN NEAR 1.5 INCHES...SO A
HEAVY DOWNPOUR IS POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY END THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUES ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF PIT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ON SATURDAY AS RIDGE EXPANDS
EASTWARD. LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS PA UNDER
STRENGTHENING RIDGE. DON`T EXPECT ANY DIURNAL ACTIVITY
SATURDAY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE.

MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH COLD FRONT LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AT SOME
LOCATIONS SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. WIDELY SCT TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KLWX 030757
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
357 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRES WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH TODAY.
BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS
COASTAL NC THIS MORNING WHILE RIDGING MOVES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS AT THE SURFACE.

A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS CLEAR
MORNING. DEWPTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WITH TEMPS WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES. ELEVATED INSTABILITY PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
INCLUDING THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. A FEW STORMS HAVE FORMED IN
OH/W PA AND ARE MOVING SOUTHWARD. THESE STORMS ARE IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH DECENT INSTABILITY. THE TRACK BRINGS THEM ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS SKIRTING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THAT RECEIVED RAIN
FROM WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO LESS THAN A MILE
ALONG PORTIONS OF I-81/I-68 AS WELL AS VALLEYS IN THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS. FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE.

NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TODAY AND WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE. TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S ALONG AND WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE TO THE LOW TO MID 90S NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR. A
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. INSTABILITY WILL
BE PRESENT AGAIN TODAY WITH MLCAPE VALUES REACHING 1-1.5 J/KG EVEN
TOUCHING 2K IN SOME SPOTS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE WIND
FLOW WEAK BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FORM THIS
AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY NEAR THE BETTER FORCING BUT STORMS SHOULD START TO PULSE
ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON.
STORMS SHOULD BE SLOW MOVING AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. OTHER THAN SCATTERED SPOTS THAT SAW HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY...THE
REGION SHOULD BE ABLE TO WITHSTAND THE HEAVY RAIN. LOCALIZED URBAN
FLOODING CAN NOT BE RULED OUT BUT CHANCE IS LOW. FCST SOUNDINGS
DEPICT DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS MAY CAUSE
STRONG WINDS. AN ISOLATED SVR STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT TODAY
MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE EVENING. ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WILL STILL BE PRESENT TONIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
FRIDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO N MD FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING AN AIRMASS CHANGE FOR THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL
SAG SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM FRIDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO
ONSHORE FLOW AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE. EASTERN SLOPES SUCH AS THE BLUE RIDGE FOOTHILLS MAY
EXPERIENCE RAINFALL ENHANCEMENT DUE TO UPSLOPE CONDITIONS. AT THIS
TIME DUE TO RECENT DRY CONDITIONS NO FLOOD THREAT IS IMMINENT
HOWEVER THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL
BE CROSSING THE AREA FRI NIGHT WITH SCT SHOWERS/T-STORMS ENDING
FROM EAST TO WEST LATE FRI NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GET
BANK UP AGAINST THE BLUE RIDGE AND APPALACHIANS MTNS ON EASTERLY
FLOW. LOW CLOUDS WILL THEN GRADUALY MIX OUT SAT MORNING.

HIGH PRES BUILDS FOR THE WEEKEND GIVING WAY TO FAIR WEATHER THROUGH
LABOR DAY. HOWEVER...GFS IS SUGGESTING SOME MOISTURE WILL BE
ADVECTED FROM THE ATLC INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AS A WEAK LOW PRES
(POSSIBLE REMNANT LOW OF ERIKA) LIFTS NORTHEAST. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP FCST DRY AS THIS SEEMS A LOW PROBABILITY OUTCOME
ACCORDING TO GEFS ENSEMBLE DATA.

SFC HIGH PRES WEAKENS FURTHER MID NEXT WEEK WHILE MOISTURE
GRADUALLY INCREASES INCREASING THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK WITH
90S MAKING A RETURN. WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE INDICATED BY GFS AND
ECMWF IN THE WED-THU TIME FRAME BUT ENSEMBLES SHOW A HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. ALSO...HIGH PRES BUILDING
BEHIND FRONT LOOKS PRETTY WEAK SO FRONT MAY NOT GET ENOUGH PUSH TO
MAKE IT THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE AT CHO-MRB
DUE TO PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. SHRA/VCTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
BUT CHANCE OF IT REACHING THE TERMINALS IS LOW AT THIS TIME. BEST
CHANCE WILL BE 18-00Z AT MRB- CHO. SHRA MAY MOVE EASTWARD INTO
IAD-DCA THIS EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE SUB-VFR VSBYS
AND GUSTY WINDS. A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM NE TO SW FRIDAY.
SHRA/VCTS EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME TS MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN.

LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY AT KCHO. SOME REMNANT
SMOKE FROM THE GREAT LKS MAY ALSO BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM
NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.MARINE...W-NW 5-10KTS ON THE WATERS THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY PULSE UP TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS FROM THE NE FRIDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME NE FROM N TO S ON THE WATERS. WINDS
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO GUST NEAR SCA CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A
SCA IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY SAT INTO SAT EVENING ESPECIALLY ON
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. SCA POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...HAS/LFR
MARINE...HAS/LFR



000
FXUS61 KLWX 030757
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
357 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRES WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH TODAY.
BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS
COASTAL NC THIS MORNING WHILE RIDGING MOVES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS AT THE SURFACE.

A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS CLEAR
MORNING. DEWPTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WITH TEMPS WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES. ELEVATED INSTABILITY PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
INCLUDING THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. A FEW STORMS HAVE FORMED IN
OH/W PA AND ARE MOVING SOUTHWARD. THESE STORMS ARE IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH DECENT INSTABILITY. THE TRACK BRINGS THEM ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS SKIRTING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THAT RECEIVED RAIN
FROM WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO LESS THAN A MILE
ALONG PORTIONS OF I-81/I-68 AS WELL AS VALLEYS IN THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS. FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE.

NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TODAY AND WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE. TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S ALONG AND WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE TO THE LOW TO MID 90S NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR. A
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. INSTABILITY WILL
BE PRESENT AGAIN TODAY WITH MLCAPE VALUES REACHING 1-1.5 J/KG EVEN
TOUCHING 2K IN SOME SPOTS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE WIND
FLOW WEAK BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FORM THIS
AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY NEAR THE BETTER FORCING BUT STORMS SHOULD START TO PULSE
ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON.
STORMS SHOULD BE SLOW MOVING AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. OTHER THAN SCATTERED SPOTS THAT SAW HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY...THE
REGION SHOULD BE ABLE TO WITHSTAND THE HEAVY RAIN. LOCALIZED URBAN
FLOODING CAN NOT BE RULED OUT BUT CHANCE IS LOW. FCST SOUNDINGS
DEPICT DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS MAY CAUSE
STRONG WINDS. AN ISOLATED SVR STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT TODAY
MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE EVENING. ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WILL STILL BE PRESENT TONIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
FRIDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO N MD FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING AN AIRMASS CHANGE FOR THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL
SAG SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM FRIDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO
ONSHORE FLOW AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE. EASTERN SLOPES SUCH AS THE BLUE RIDGE FOOTHILLS MAY
EXPERIENCE RAINFALL ENHANCEMENT DUE TO UPSLOPE CONDITIONS. AT THIS
TIME DUE TO RECENT DRY CONDITIONS NO FLOOD THREAT IS IMMINENT
HOWEVER THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL
BE CROSSING THE AREA FRI NIGHT WITH SCT SHOWERS/T-STORMS ENDING
FROM EAST TO WEST LATE FRI NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GET
BANK UP AGAINST THE BLUE RIDGE AND APPALACHIANS MTNS ON EASTERLY
FLOW. LOW CLOUDS WILL THEN GRADUALY MIX OUT SAT MORNING.

HIGH PRES BUILDS FOR THE WEEKEND GIVING WAY TO FAIR WEATHER THROUGH
LABOR DAY. HOWEVER...GFS IS SUGGESTING SOME MOISTURE WILL BE
ADVECTED FROM THE ATLC INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AS A WEAK LOW PRES
(POSSIBLE REMNANT LOW OF ERIKA) LIFTS NORTHEAST. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP FCST DRY AS THIS SEEMS A LOW PROBABILITY OUTCOME
ACCORDING TO GEFS ENSEMBLE DATA.

SFC HIGH PRES WEAKENS FURTHER MID NEXT WEEK WHILE MOISTURE
GRADUALLY INCREASES INCREASING THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK WITH
90S MAKING A RETURN. WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE INDICATED BY GFS AND
ECMWF IN THE WED-THU TIME FRAME BUT ENSEMBLES SHOW A HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. ALSO...HIGH PRES BUILDING
BEHIND FRONT LOOKS PRETTY WEAK SO FRONT MAY NOT GET ENOUGH PUSH TO
MAKE IT THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE AT CHO-MRB
DUE TO PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. SHRA/VCTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
BUT CHANCE OF IT REACHING THE TERMINALS IS LOW AT THIS TIME. BEST
CHANCE WILL BE 18-00Z AT MRB- CHO. SHRA MAY MOVE EASTWARD INTO
IAD-DCA THIS EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE SUB-VFR VSBYS
AND GUSTY WINDS. A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM NE TO SW FRIDAY.
SHRA/VCTS EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME TS MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN.

LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY AT KCHO. SOME REMNANT
SMOKE FROM THE GREAT LKS MAY ALSO BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM
NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.MARINE...W-NW 5-10KTS ON THE WATERS THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY PULSE UP TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS FROM THE NE FRIDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME NE FROM N TO S ON THE WATERS. WINDS
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO GUST NEAR SCA CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A
SCA IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY SAT INTO SAT EVENING ESPECIALLY ON
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. SCA POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...HAS/LFR
MARINE...HAS/LFR




000
FXUS61 KLWX 030757
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
357 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRES WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH TODAY.
BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS
COASTAL NC THIS MORNING WHILE RIDGING MOVES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS AT THE SURFACE.

A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS CLEAR
MORNING. DEWPTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WITH TEMPS WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES. ELEVATED INSTABILITY PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
INCLUDING THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. A FEW STORMS HAVE FORMED IN
OH/W PA AND ARE MOVING SOUTHWARD. THESE STORMS ARE IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH DECENT INSTABILITY. THE TRACK BRINGS THEM ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS SKIRTING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THAT RECEIVED RAIN
FROM WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO LESS THAN A MILE
ALONG PORTIONS OF I-81/I-68 AS WELL AS VALLEYS IN THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS. FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE.

NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TODAY AND WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE. TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S ALONG AND WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE TO THE LOW TO MID 90S NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR. A
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. INSTABILITY WILL
BE PRESENT AGAIN TODAY WITH MLCAPE VALUES REACHING 1-1.5 J/KG EVEN
TOUCHING 2K IN SOME SPOTS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE WIND
FLOW WEAK BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FORM THIS
AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY NEAR THE BETTER FORCING BUT STORMS SHOULD START TO PULSE
ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON.
STORMS SHOULD BE SLOW MOVING AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. OTHER THAN SCATTERED SPOTS THAT SAW HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY...THE
REGION SHOULD BE ABLE TO WITHSTAND THE HEAVY RAIN. LOCALIZED URBAN
FLOODING CAN NOT BE RULED OUT BUT CHANCE IS LOW. FCST SOUNDINGS
DEPICT DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS MAY CAUSE
STRONG WINDS. AN ISOLATED SVR STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT TODAY
MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE EVENING. ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WILL STILL BE PRESENT TONIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
FRIDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO N MD FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING AN AIRMASS CHANGE FOR THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL
SAG SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM FRIDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO
ONSHORE FLOW AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE. EASTERN SLOPES SUCH AS THE BLUE RIDGE FOOTHILLS MAY
EXPERIENCE RAINFALL ENHANCEMENT DUE TO UPSLOPE CONDITIONS. AT THIS
TIME DUE TO RECENT DRY CONDITIONS NO FLOOD THREAT IS IMMINENT
HOWEVER THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL
BE CROSSING THE AREA FRI NIGHT WITH SCT SHOWERS/T-STORMS ENDING
FROM EAST TO WEST LATE FRI NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GET
BANK UP AGAINST THE BLUE RIDGE AND APPALACHIANS MTNS ON EASTERLY
FLOW. LOW CLOUDS WILL THEN GRADUALY MIX OUT SAT MORNING.

HIGH PRES BUILDS FOR THE WEEKEND GIVING WAY TO FAIR WEATHER THROUGH
LABOR DAY. HOWEVER...GFS IS SUGGESTING SOME MOISTURE WILL BE
ADVECTED FROM THE ATLC INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AS A WEAK LOW PRES
(POSSIBLE REMNANT LOW OF ERIKA) LIFTS NORTHEAST. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP FCST DRY AS THIS SEEMS A LOW PROBABILITY OUTCOME
ACCORDING TO GEFS ENSEMBLE DATA.

SFC HIGH PRES WEAKENS FURTHER MID NEXT WEEK WHILE MOISTURE
GRADUALLY INCREASES INCREASING THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK WITH
90S MAKING A RETURN. WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE INDICATED BY GFS AND
ECMWF IN THE WED-THU TIME FRAME BUT ENSEMBLES SHOW A HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. ALSO...HIGH PRES BUILDING
BEHIND FRONT LOOKS PRETTY WEAK SO FRONT MAY NOT GET ENOUGH PUSH TO
MAKE IT THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE AT CHO-MRB
DUE TO PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. SHRA/VCTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
BUT CHANCE OF IT REACHING THE TERMINALS IS LOW AT THIS TIME. BEST
CHANCE WILL BE 18-00Z AT MRB- CHO. SHRA MAY MOVE EASTWARD INTO
IAD-DCA THIS EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE SUB-VFR VSBYS
AND GUSTY WINDS. A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM NE TO SW FRIDAY.
SHRA/VCTS EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME TS MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN.

LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY AT KCHO. SOME REMNANT
SMOKE FROM THE GREAT LKS MAY ALSO BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM
NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.MARINE...W-NW 5-10KTS ON THE WATERS THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY PULSE UP TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS FROM THE NE FRIDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME NE FROM N TO S ON THE WATERS. WINDS
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO GUST NEAR SCA CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A
SCA IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY SAT INTO SAT EVENING ESPECIALLY ON
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. SCA POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...HAS/LFR
MARINE...HAS/LFR




000
FXUS61 KLWX 030757
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
357 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRES WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH TODAY.
BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS
COASTAL NC THIS MORNING WHILE RIDGING MOVES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS AT THE SURFACE.

A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS CLEAR
MORNING. DEWPTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WITH TEMPS WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES. ELEVATED INSTABILITY PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
INCLUDING THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. A FEW STORMS HAVE FORMED IN
OH/W PA AND ARE MOVING SOUTHWARD. THESE STORMS ARE IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH DECENT INSTABILITY. THE TRACK BRINGS THEM ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS SKIRTING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THAT RECEIVED RAIN
FROM WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO LESS THAN A MILE
ALONG PORTIONS OF I-81/I-68 AS WELL AS VALLEYS IN THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS. FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE.

NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TODAY AND WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE. TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S ALONG AND WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE TO THE LOW TO MID 90S NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR. A
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. INSTABILITY WILL
BE PRESENT AGAIN TODAY WITH MLCAPE VALUES REACHING 1-1.5 J/KG EVEN
TOUCHING 2K IN SOME SPOTS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE WIND
FLOW WEAK BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FORM THIS
AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY NEAR THE BETTER FORCING BUT STORMS SHOULD START TO PULSE
ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON.
STORMS SHOULD BE SLOW MOVING AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. OTHER THAN SCATTERED SPOTS THAT SAW HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY...THE
REGION SHOULD BE ABLE TO WITHSTAND THE HEAVY RAIN. LOCALIZED URBAN
FLOODING CAN NOT BE RULED OUT BUT CHANCE IS LOW. FCST SOUNDINGS
DEPICT DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS MAY CAUSE
STRONG WINDS. AN ISOLATED SVR STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT TODAY
MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE EVENING. ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WILL STILL BE PRESENT TONIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
FRIDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO N MD FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING AN AIRMASS CHANGE FOR THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL
SAG SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM FRIDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO
ONSHORE FLOW AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE. EASTERN SLOPES SUCH AS THE BLUE RIDGE FOOTHILLS MAY
EXPERIENCE RAINFALL ENHANCEMENT DUE TO UPSLOPE CONDITIONS. AT THIS
TIME DUE TO RECENT DRY CONDITIONS NO FLOOD THREAT IS IMMINENT
HOWEVER THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL
BE CROSSING THE AREA FRI NIGHT WITH SCT SHOWERS/T-STORMS ENDING
FROM EAST TO WEST LATE FRI NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GET
BANK UP AGAINST THE BLUE RIDGE AND APPALACHIANS MTNS ON EASTERLY
FLOW. LOW CLOUDS WILL THEN GRADUALY MIX OUT SAT MORNING.

HIGH PRES BUILDS FOR THE WEEKEND GIVING WAY TO FAIR WEATHER THROUGH
LABOR DAY. HOWEVER...GFS IS SUGGESTING SOME MOISTURE WILL BE
ADVECTED FROM THE ATLC INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AS A WEAK LOW PRES
(POSSIBLE REMNANT LOW OF ERIKA) LIFTS NORTHEAST. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP FCST DRY AS THIS SEEMS A LOW PROBABILITY OUTCOME
ACCORDING TO GEFS ENSEMBLE DATA.

SFC HIGH PRES WEAKENS FURTHER MID NEXT WEEK WHILE MOISTURE
GRADUALLY INCREASES INCREASING THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK WITH
90S MAKING A RETURN. WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE INDICATED BY GFS AND
ECMWF IN THE WED-THU TIME FRAME BUT ENSEMBLES SHOW A HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. ALSO...HIGH PRES BUILDING
BEHIND FRONT LOOKS PRETTY WEAK SO FRONT MAY NOT GET ENOUGH PUSH TO
MAKE IT THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE AT CHO-MRB
DUE TO PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. SHRA/VCTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
BUT CHANCE OF IT REACHING THE TERMINALS IS LOW AT THIS TIME. BEST
CHANCE WILL BE 18-00Z AT MRB- CHO. SHRA MAY MOVE EASTWARD INTO
IAD-DCA THIS EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE SUB-VFR VSBYS
AND GUSTY WINDS. A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM NE TO SW FRIDAY.
SHRA/VCTS EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME TS MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN.

LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY AT KCHO. SOME REMNANT
SMOKE FROM THE GREAT LKS MAY ALSO BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM
NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.MARINE...W-NW 5-10KTS ON THE WATERS THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY PULSE UP TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS FROM THE NE FRIDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME NE FROM N TO S ON THE WATERS. WINDS
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO GUST NEAR SCA CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A
SCA IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY SAT INTO SAT EVENING ESPECIALLY ON
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. SCA POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...HAS/LFR
MARINE...HAS/LFR




000
FXUS61 KLWX 030757
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
357 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRES WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH TODAY.
BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS
COASTAL NC THIS MORNING WHILE RIDGING MOVES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS AT THE SURFACE.

A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS CLEAR
MORNING. DEWPTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WITH TEMPS WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES. ELEVATED INSTABILITY PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
INCLUDING THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. A FEW STORMS HAVE FORMED IN
OH/W PA AND ARE MOVING SOUTHWARD. THESE STORMS ARE IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH DECENT INSTABILITY. THE TRACK BRINGS THEM ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS SKIRTING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THAT RECEIVED RAIN
FROM WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO LESS THAN A MILE
ALONG PORTIONS OF I-81/I-68 AS WELL AS VALLEYS IN THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS. FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE.

NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TODAY AND WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE. TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S ALONG AND WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE TO THE LOW TO MID 90S NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR. A
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. INSTABILITY WILL
BE PRESENT AGAIN TODAY WITH MLCAPE VALUES REACHING 1-1.5 J/KG EVEN
TOUCHING 2K IN SOME SPOTS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE WIND
FLOW WEAK BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FORM THIS
AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY NEAR THE BETTER FORCING BUT STORMS SHOULD START TO PULSE
ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON.
STORMS SHOULD BE SLOW MOVING AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. OTHER THAN SCATTERED SPOTS THAT SAW HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY...THE
REGION SHOULD BE ABLE TO WITHSTAND THE HEAVY RAIN. LOCALIZED URBAN
FLOODING CAN NOT BE RULED OUT BUT CHANCE IS LOW. FCST SOUNDINGS
DEPICT DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS MAY CAUSE
STRONG WINDS. AN ISOLATED SVR STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT TODAY
MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE EVENING. ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WILL STILL BE PRESENT TONIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
FRIDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO N MD FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING AN AIRMASS CHANGE FOR THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL
SAG SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM FRIDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO
ONSHORE FLOW AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE. EASTERN SLOPES SUCH AS THE BLUE RIDGE FOOTHILLS MAY
EXPERIENCE RAINFALL ENHANCEMENT DUE TO UPSLOPE CONDITIONS. AT THIS
TIME DUE TO RECENT DRY CONDITIONS NO FLOOD THREAT IS IMMINENT
HOWEVER THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL
BE CROSSING THE AREA FRI NIGHT WITH SCT SHOWERS/T-STORMS ENDING
FROM EAST TO WEST LATE FRI NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GET
BANK UP AGAINST THE BLUE RIDGE AND APPALACHIANS MTNS ON EASTERLY
FLOW. LOW CLOUDS WILL THEN GRADUALY MIX OUT SAT MORNING.

HIGH PRES BUILDS FOR THE WEEKEND GIVING WAY TO FAIR WEATHER THROUGH
LABOR DAY. HOWEVER...GFS IS SUGGESTING SOME MOISTURE WILL BE
ADVECTED FROM THE ATLC INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AS A WEAK LOW PRES
(POSSIBLE REMNANT LOW OF ERIKA) LIFTS NORTHEAST. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP FCST DRY AS THIS SEEMS A LOW PROBABILITY OUTCOME
ACCORDING TO GEFS ENSEMBLE DATA.

SFC HIGH PRES WEAKENS FURTHER MID NEXT WEEK WHILE MOISTURE
GRADUALLY INCREASES INCREASING THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK WITH
90S MAKING A RETURN. WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE INDICATED BY GFS AND
ECMWF IN THE WED-THU TIME FRAME BUT ENSEMBLES SHOW A HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. ALSO...HIGH PRES BUILDING
BEHIND FRONT LOOKS PRETTY WEAK SO FRONT MAY NOT GET ENOUGH PUSH TO
MAKE IT THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE AT CHO-MRB
DUE TO PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. SHRA/VCTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
BUT CHANCE OF IT REACHING THE TERMINALS IS LOW AT THIS TIME. BEST
CHANCE WILL BE 18-00Z AT MRB- CHO. SHRA MAY MOVE EASTWARD INTO
IAD-DCA THIS EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE SUB-VFR VSBYS
AND GUSTY WINDS. A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM NE TO SW FRIDAY.
SHRA/VCTS EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME TS MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN.

LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY AT KCHO. SOME REMNANT
SMOKE FROM THE GREAT LKS MAY ALSO BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM
NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.MARINE...W-NW 5-10KTS ON THE WATERS THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY PULSE UP TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS FROM THE NE FRIDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME NE FROM N TO S ON THE WATERS. WINDS
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO GUST NEAR SCA CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A
SCA IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY SAT INTO SAT EVENING ESPECIALLY ON
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. SCA POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...HAS/LFR
MARINE...HAS/LFR




000
FXUS61 KLWX 030757
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
357 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRES WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH TODAY.
BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS
COASTAL NC THIS MORNING WHILE RIDGING MOVES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS AT THE SURFACE.

A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS CLEAR
MORNING. DEWPTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WITH TEMPS WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES. ELEVATED INSTABILITY PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
INCLUDING THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. A FEW STORMS HAVE FORMED IN
OH/W PA AND ARE MOVING SOUTHWARD. THESE STORMS ARE IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH DECENT INSTABILITY. THE TRACK BRINGS THEM ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS SKIRTING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THAT RECEIVED RAIN
FROM WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO LESS THAN A MILE
ALONG PORTIONS OF I-81/I-68 AS WELL AS VALLEYS IN THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS. FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE.

NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TODAY AND WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE. TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S ALONG AND WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE TO THE LOW TO MID 90S NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR. A
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. INSTABILITY WILL
BE PRESENT AGAIN TODAY WITH MLCAPE VALUES REACHING 1-1.5 J/KG EVEN
TOUCHING 2K IN SOME SPOTS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE WIND
FLOW WEAK BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FORM THIS
AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY NEAR THE BETTER FORCING BUT STORMS SHOULD START TO PULSE
ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON.
STORMS SHOULD BE SLOW MOVING AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. OTHER THAN SCATTERED SPOTS THAT SAW HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY...THE
REGION SHOULD BE ABLE TO WITHSTAND THE HEAVY RAIN. LOCALIZED URBAN
FLOODING CAN NOT BE RULED OUT BUT CHANCE IS LOW. FCST SOUNDINGS
DEPICT DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS MAY CAUSE
STRONG WINDS. AN ISOLATED SVR STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT TODAY
MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE EVENING. ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WILL STILL BE PRESENT TONIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
FRIDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO N MD FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING AN AIRMASS CHANGE FOR THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL
SAG SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM FRIDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO
ONSHORE FLOW AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE. EASTERN SLOPES SUCH AS THE BLUE RIDGE FOOTHILLS MAY
EXPERIENCE RAINFALL ENHANCEMENT DUE TO UPSLOPE CONDITIONS. AT THIS
TIME DUE TO RECENT DRY CONDITIONS NO FLOOD THREAT IS IMMINENT
HOWEVER THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL
BE CROSSING THE AREA FRI NIGHT WITH SCT SHOWERS/T-STORMS ENDING
FROM EAST TO WEST LATE FRI NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GET
BANK UP AGAINST THE BLUE RIDGE AND APPALACHIANS MTNS ON EASTERLY
FLOW. LOW CLOUDS WILL THEN GRADUALY MIX OUT SAT MORNING.

HIGH PRES BUILDS FOR THE WEEKEND GIVING WAY TO FAIR WEATHER THROUGH
LABOR DAY. HOWEVER...GFS IS SUGGESTING SOME MOISTURE WILL BE
ADVECTED FROM THE ATLC INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AS A WEAK LOW PRES
(POSSIBLE REMNANT LOW OF ERIKA) LIFTS NORTHEAST. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP FCST DRY AS THIS SEEMS A LOW PROBABILITY OUTCOME
ACCORDING TO GEFS ENSEMBLE DATA.

SFC HIGH PRES WEAKENS FURTHER MID NEXT WEEK WHILE MOISTURE
GRADUALLY INCREASES INCREASING THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK WITH
90S MAKING A RETURN. WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE INDICATED BY GFS AND
ECMWF IN THE WED-THU TIME FRAME BUT ENSEMBLES SHOW A HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. ALSO...HIGH PRES BUILDING
BEHIND FRONT LOOKS PRETTY WEAK SO FRONT MAY NOT GET ENOUGH PUSH TO
MAKE IT THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE AT CHO-MRB
DUE TO PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. SHRA/VCTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
BUT CHANCE OF IT REACHING THE TERMINALS IS LOW AT THIS TIME. BEST
CHANCE WILL BE 18-00Z AT MRB- CHO. SHRA MAY MOVE EASTWARD INTO
IAD-DCA THIS EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE SUB-VFR VSBYS
AND GUSTY WINDS. A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM NE TO SW FRIDAY.
SHRA/VCTS EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME TS MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN.

LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY AT KCHO. SOME REMNANT
SMOKE FROM THE GREAT LKS MAY ALSO BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM
NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.MARINE...W-NW 5-10KTS ON THE WATERS THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY PULSE UP TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS FROM THE NE FRIDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME NE FROM N TO S ON THE WATERS. WINDS
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO GUST NEAR SCA CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A
SCA IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY SAT INTO SAT EVENING ESPECIALLY ON
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. SCA POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...HAS/LFR
MARINE...HAS/LFR




000
FXUS61 KPHI 030727
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
327 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO
OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY ARRIVE LATER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN IN OUR REGION
AROUND 300 AM. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD PASS OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING
BEFORE DRIFTING BACK INLAND AND OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

A WEAK NORTHWEST TO NORTH SURFACE FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FROM DEVELOPING
EARLY THIS MORNING. WE WILL SIMPLY MENTION SOME PATCHY FOG ON THE
COASTAL PLAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH UNTIL ABOUT 800 AM.

WE SHOULD REMAIN PRECIPITATION-FREE FOR THIS MORNING. WE WILL
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN MUCH OF OUR REGION. THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST
INSTABILITY IN OUR FORECAST AREA WILL EXTEND FROM THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
REGION UP INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. HOWEVER, THE SURFACE TROUGH MAY
PROVIDE A TRIGGER ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. REGARDLESS, THE CHANCE OF
RAIN IS RATHER LOW AT ANY GIVEN SPOT.

THE AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE WARM. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S AT MOST LOCATIONS. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 80S IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF THE
POCONOS AND NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY, AS WELL AS IN THE COMMUNITIES
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY TONIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AND WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH IS ANTICIPATED TO
DROP THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
ENHANCE OUR CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
STABILIZE GRADUALLY DURING THE NIGHT.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A RIDGE SLIDING EASTWARD OVER OUR
AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO FLATTEN OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF STATES. OVERALL, THIS PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR WARMTH AND
DRYNESS ALTHOUGH A BRIEF BREAK OCCURS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY IN THE
WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE REGION NEEDS RAIN, HOWEVER IT
LOOKS LIKE THE CHCS ARE RATHER LOW GIVEN NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS MOVING
THROUGH. WE USED A MODEL/CONTINUITY BLEND FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY,
WITH A 00Z WPC GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY BLEND THEREAFTER. SOME
ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR
NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE SHIFTING WEST
AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD THEREFORE BE SHIFTING
SOUTHWESTWARD WITH TIME AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEING
FROM THE EAST OR NORTHEAST, AND WITH MORE OF AN OCEAN INFLUENCE SOME
COOLING OF THE AIRMASS IS ANTICIPATED. THE DRIER AIR MAY WIN OUT AND
THEREFORE DESPITE THE ONSHORE FLOW WE SHOULD HAVE SOME DECREASE IN
THE CLOUDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER IF THE
TRANSITION IS DELAYED OR IS NOT CLEAN LIKE SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS,
THEN A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS MAY BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE DRIER AIR
PRESSES FARTHER SOUTH. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR, THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SHOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST CHC. SINCE THE
PROSPECTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ON THE LOWER SIDE, WE KEPT
THE POPS AT OR BELOW LOW CHC, WITH THE BETTER CHC LOOKING LIKE THE
WESTERN ZONES TO PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A
WINDOW WHERE BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST. THE IDEA OF MORE CLOUDINESS/LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WAS
INCORPORATED INTO THE SKY GRIDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT,
MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CRESTS ACROSS THE
AREA, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EASE EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE ONSHORE FLOW TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY. THERE
COULD BE SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
ZONES TO START SATURDAY DEPENDING ON THE DRY AIR PUSH, OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED ATTM. WE START TO LOSE THE COOLER
ONSHORE INFLUENCE, AND THEREFORE THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO REBOUND SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING NEAR THE
U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER SHOULD FLATTEN THE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALSO FORCE
HIGH PRESSURE MORE OFFSHORE, AND A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
GRADUALLY SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY LOOKS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY, THEREFORE THE CHCS
FOR CONVECTION SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN TO OUR WEST. SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING WELL INTO CANADA AS A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY. IT IS A
WEAK COLD FRONT WITH THIS FEATURE THAT MAY END UP MOVING THROUGH OUR
AREA LATER WEDNESDAY. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF
THESE FEATURES THIS FAR OUT. GIVEN THE LINGERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH,
A SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE FRONT MAY RESULT. AS
THE FLOW IS MORE SOUTHERLY, A RATHER WARM AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE IN
PLACE WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE DEW POINTS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS THROUGH ABOUT
1300Z. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF IFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AT KMIV AND KACY EARLY THIS MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM 1300Z AND INTO THIS EVENING AT
OUR TAF SITES. SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT OUR REGION FROM THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THE CHANCE OF ANY OF OUR TAF
SITES BEING AFFECTED IS LOW AND WE WILL NOT MENTION THE POTENTIAL IN
THE TAF PRODUCTS.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO FAVOR THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST FOR TODAY AT
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. HOWEVER, A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INLAND FROM THE OCEAN AND IT SHOULD AFFECT KACY THIS AFTERNOON
BRINGING THE WIND AROUND TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST THERE.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THIS EVENING SHOULD BECOME NORTHEAST LATE
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH.
WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR OVERALL. SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR THE KPHL AREA ON WEST AND SOUTH. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUD /MVFR/ DEVELOPMENT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT KRDG TO KPHL TO KACY
ON SOUTHWARD, HOWEVER THIS IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
EAST- NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS, WITH SOME GUSTINESS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY 10-
15 KNOTS SATURDAY, DIMINISHING AND BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY SUNDAY
BEFORE TURNING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING BEFORE IT DRIFTS INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT.

THE WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO BE VARIABLE THIS MORNING BEFORE SETTLING
INTO THE SOUTHEAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. THE WIND IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. SPEEDS SHOULD
REMAIN AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 FEET
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH WAVES ON DELAWARE BAY BEING 2 FEET OR
LESS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES THROUGH, THE WINDS
WILL TURN FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AND INCREASE. IT APPEARS THAT
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS OCCUR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON THE COASTAL
WATERS LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE A
DECREASE BEGINS. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE
NEEDED. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO BUILD THE SEAS TO AROUND 5 FEET
STARTING LATE FRIDAY ON THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THEY SHIFT FROM EAST-NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH. THE SEAS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW HIGH THEY GET ON
THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO



000
FXUS61 KPHI 030727
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
327 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO
OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY ARRIVE LATER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN IN OUR REGION
AROUND 300 AM. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD PASS OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING
BEFORE DRIFTING BACK INLAND AND OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

A WEAK NORTHWEST TO NORTH SURFACE FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FROM DEVELOPING
EARLY THIS MORNING. WE WILL SIMPLY MENTION SOME PATCHY FOG ON THE
COASTAL PLAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH UNTIL ABOUT 800 AM.

WE SHOULD REMAIN PRECIPITATION-FREE FOR THIS MORNING. WE WILL
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN MUCH OF OUR REGION. THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST
INSTABILITY IN OUR FORECAST AREA WILL EXTEND FROM THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
REGION UP INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. HOWEVER, THE SURFACE TROUGH MAY
PROVIDE A TRIGGER ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. REGARDLESS, THE CHANCE OF
RAIN IS RATHER LOW AT ANY GIVEN SPOT.

THE AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE WARM. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S AT MOST LOCATIONS. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 80S IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF THE
POCONOS AND NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY, AS WELL AS IN THE COMMUNITIES
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY TONIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AND WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH IS ANTICIPATED TO
DROP THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
ENHANCE OUR CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
STABILIZE GRADUALLY DURING THE NIGHT.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A RIDGE SLIDING EASTWARD OVER OUR
AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO FLATTEN OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF STATES. OVERALL, THIS PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR WARMTH AND
DRYNESS ALTHOUGH A BRIEF BREAK OCCURS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY IN THE
WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE REGION NEEDS RAIN, HOWEVER IT
LOOKS LIKE THE CHCS ARE RATHER LOW GIVEN NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS MOVING
THROUGH. WE USED A MODEL/CONTINUITY BLEND FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY,
WITH A 00Z WPC GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY BLEND THEREAFTER. SOME
ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR
NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE SHIFTING WEST
AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD THEREFORE BE SHIFTING
SOUTHWESTWARD WITH TIME AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEING
FROM THE EAST OR NORTHEAST, AND WITH MORE OF AN OCEAN INFLUENCE SOME
COOLING OF THE AIRMASS IS ANTICIPATED. THE DRIER AIR MAY WIN OUT AND
THEREFORE DESPITE THE ONSHORE FLOW WE SHOULD HAVE SOME DECREASE IN
THE CLOUDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER IF THE
TRANSITION IS DELAYED OR IS NOT CLEAN LIKE SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS,
THEN A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS MAY BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE DRIER AIR
PRESSES FARTHER SOUTH. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR, THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SHOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST CHC. SINCE THE
PROSPECTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ON THE LOWER SIDE, WE KEPT
THE POPS AT OR BELOW LOW CHC, WITH THE BETTER CHC LOOKING LIKE THE
WESTERN ZONES TO PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A
WINDOW WHERE BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST. THE IDEA OF MORE CLOUDINESS/LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WAS
INCORPORATED INTO THE SKY GRIDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT,
MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CRESTS ACROSS THE
AREA, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EASE EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE ONSHORE FLOW TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY. THERE
COULD BE SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
ZONES TO START SATURDAY DEPENDING ON THE DRY AIR PUSH, OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED ATTM. WE START TO LOSE THE COOLER
ONSHORE INFLUENCE, AND THEREFORE THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO REBOUND SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING NEAR THE
U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER SHOULD FLATTEN THE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALSO FORCE
HIGH PRESSURE MORE OFFSHORE, AND A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
GRADUALLY SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY LOOKS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY, THEREFORE THE CHCS
FOR CONVECTION SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN TO OUR WEST. SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING WELL INTO CANADA AS A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY. IT IS A
WEAK COLD FRONT WITH THIS FEATURE THAT MAY END UP MOVING THROUGH OUR
AREA LATER WEDNESDAY. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF
THESE FEATURES THIS FAR OUT. GIVEN THE LINGERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH,
A SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE FRONT MAY RESULT. AS
THE FLOW IS MORE SOUTHERLY, A RATHER WARM AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE IN
PLACE WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE DEW POINTS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS THROUGH ABOUT
1300Z. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF IFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AT KMIV AND KACY EARLY THIS MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM 1300Z AND INTO THIS EVENING AT
OUR TAF SITES. SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT OUR REGION FROM THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THE CHANCE OF ANY OF OUR TAF
SITES BEING AFFECTED IS LOW AND WE WILL NOT MENTION THE POTENTIAL IN
THE TAF PRODUCTS.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO FAVOR THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST FOR TODAY AT
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. HOWEVER, A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INLAND FROM THE OCEAN AND IT SHOULD AFFECT KACY THIS AFTERNOON
BRINGING THE WIND AROUND TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST THERE.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THIS EVENING SHOULD BECOME NORTHEAST LATE
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH.
WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR OVERALL. SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR THE KPHL AREA ON WEST AND SOUTH. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUD /MVFR/ DEVELOPMENT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT KRDG TO KPHL TO KACY
ON SOUTHWARD, HOWEVER THIS IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
EAST- NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS, WITH SOME GUSTINESS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY 10-
15 KNOTS SATURDAY, DIMINISHING AND BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY SUNDAY
BEFORE TURNING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING BEFORE IT DRIFTS INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT.

THE WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO BE VARIABLE THIS MORNING BEFORE SETTLING
INTO THE SOUTHEAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. THE WIND IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. SPEEDS SHOULD
REMAIN AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 FEET
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH WAVES ON DELAWARE BAY BEING 2 FEET OR
LESS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES THROUGH, THE WINDS
WILL TURN FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AND INCREASE. IT APPEARS THAT
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS OCCUR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON THE COASTAL
WATERS LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE A
DECREASE BEGINS. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE
NEEDED. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO BUILD THE SEAS TO AROUND 5 FEET
STARTING LATE FRIDAY ON THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THEY SHIFT FROM EAST-NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH. THE SEAS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW HIGH THEY GET ON
THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO




000
FXUS61 KPHI 030727
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
327 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO
OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY ARRIVE LATER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN IN OUR REGION
AROUND 300 AM. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD PASS OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING
BEFORE DRIFTING BACK INLAND AND OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

A WEAK NORTHWEST TO NORTH SURFACE FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FROM DEVELOPING
EARLY THIS MORNING. WE WILL SIMPLY MENTION SOME PATCHY FOG ON THE
COASTAL PLAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH UNTIL ABOUT 800 AM.

WE SHOULD REMAIN PRECIPITATION-FREE FOR THIS MORNING. WE WILL
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN MUCH OF OUR REGION. THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST
INSTABILITY IN OUR FORECAST AREA WILL EXTEND FROM THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
REGION UP INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. HOWEVER, THE SURFACE TROUGH MAY
PROVIDE A TRIGGER ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. REGARDLESS, THE CHANCE OF
RAIN IS RATHER LOW AT ANY GIVEN SPOT.

THE AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE WARM. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S AT MOST LOCATIONS. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 80S IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF THE
POCONOS AND NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY, AS WELL AS IN THE COMMUNITIES
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY TONIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AND WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH IS ANTICIPATED TO
DROP THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
ENHANCE OUR CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
STABILIZE GRADUALLY DURING THE NIGHT.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A RIDGE SLIDING EASTWARD OVER OUR
AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO FLATTEN OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF STATES. OVERALL, THIS PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR WARMTH AND
DRYNESS ALTHOUGH A BRIEF BREAK OCCURS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY IN THE
WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE REGION NEEDS RAIN, HOWEVER IT
LOOKS LIKE THE CHCS ARE RATHER LOW GIVEN NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS MOVING
THROUGH. WE USED A MODEL/CONTINUITY BLEND FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY,
WITH A 00Z WPC GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY BLEND THEREAFTER. SOME
ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR
NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE SHIFTING WEST
AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD THEREFORE BE SHIFTING
SOUTHWESTWARD WITH TIME AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEING
FROM THE EAST OR NORTHEAST, AND WITH MORE OF AN OCEAN INFLUENCE SOME
COOLING OF THE AIRMASS IS ANTICIPATED. THE DRIER AIR MAY WIN OUT AND
THEREFORE DESPITE THE ONSHORE FLOW WE SHOULD HAVE SOME DECREASE IN
THE CLOUDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER IF THE
TRANSITION IS DELAYED OR IS NOT CLEAN LIKE SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS,
THEN A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS MAY BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE DRIER AIR
PRESSES FARTHER SOUTH. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR, THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SHOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST CHC. SINCE THE
PROSPECTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ON THE LOWER SIDE, WE KEPT
THE POPS AT OR BELOW LOW CHC, WITH THE BETTER CHC LOOKING LIKE THE
WESTERN ZONES TO PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A
WINDOW WHERE BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST. THE IDEA OF MORE CLOUDINESS/LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WAS
INCORPORATED INTO THE SKY GRIDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT,
MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CRESTS ACROSS THE
AREA, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EASE EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE ONSHORE FLOW TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY. THERE
COULD BE SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
ZONES TO START SATURDAY DEPENDING ON THE DRY AIR PUSH, OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED ATTM. WE START TO LOSE THE COOLER
ONSHORE INFLUENCE, AND THEREFORE THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO REBOUND SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING NEAR THE
U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER SHOULD FLATTEN THE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALSO FORCE
HIGH PRESSURE MORE OFFSHORE, AND A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
GRADUALLY SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY LOOKS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY, THEREFORE THE CHCS
FOR CONVECTION SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN TO OUR WEST. SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING WELL INTO CANADA AS A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY. IT IS A
WEAK COLD FRONT WITH THIS FEATURE THAT MAY END UP MOVING THROUGH OUR
AREA LATER WEDNESDAY. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF
THESE FEATURES THIS FAR OUT. GIVEN THE LINGERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH,
A SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE FRONT MAY RESULT. AS
THE FLOW IS MORE SOUTHERLY, A RATHER WARM AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE IN
PLACE WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE DEW POINTS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS THROUGH ABOUT
1300Z. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF IFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AT KMIV AND KACY EARLY THIS MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM 1300Z AND INTO THIS EVENING AT
OUR TAF SITES. SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT OUR REGION FROM THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THE CHANCE OF ANY OF OUR TAF
SITES BEING AFFECTED IS LOW AND WE WILL NOT MENTION THE POTENTIAL IN
THE TAF PRODUCTS.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO FAVOR THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST FOR TODAY AT
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. HOWEVER, A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INLAND FROM THE OCEAN AND IT SHOULD AFFECT KACY THIS AFTERNOON
BRINGING THE WIND AROUND TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST THERE.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THIS EVENING SHOULD BECOME NORTHEAST LATE
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH.
WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR OVERALL. SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR THE KPHL AREA ON WEST AND SOUTH. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUD /MVFR/ DEVELOPMENT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT KRDG TO KPHL TO KACY
ON SOUTHWARD, HOWEVER THIS IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
EAST- NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS, WITH SOME GUSTINESS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY 10-
15 KNOTS SATURDAY, DIMINISHING AND BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY SUNDAY
BEFORE TURNING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING BEFORE IT DRIFTS INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT.

THE WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO BE VARIABLE THIS MORNING BEFORE SETTLING
INTO THE SOUTHEAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. THE WIND IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. SPEEDS SHOULD
REMAIN AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 FEET
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH WAVES ON DELAWARE BAY BEING 2 FEET OR
LESS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES THROUGH, THE WINDS
WILL TURN FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AND INCREASE. IT APPEARS THAT
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS OCCUR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON THE COASTAL
WATERS LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE A
DECREASE BEGINS. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE
NEEDED. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO BUILD THE SEAS TO AROUND 5 FEET
STARTING LATE FRIDAY ON THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THEY SHIFT FROM EAST-NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH. THE SEAS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW HIGH THEY GET ON
THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO




000
FXUS61 KPHI 030727
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
327 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO
OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY ARRIVE LATER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN IN OUR REGION
AROUND 300 AM. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD PASS OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING
BEFORE DRIFTING BACK INLAND AND OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

A WEAK NORTHWEST TO NORTH SURFACE FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FROM DEVELOPING
EARLY THIS MORNING. WE WILL SIMPLY MENTION SOME PATCHY FOG ON THE
COASTAL PLAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH UNTIL ABOUT 800 AM.

WE SHOULD REMAIN PRECIPITATION-FREE FOR THIS MORNING. WE WILL
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN MUCH OF OUR REGION. THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST
INSTABILITY IN OUR FORECAST AREA WILL EXTEND FROM THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
REGION UP INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. HOWEVER, THE SURFACE TROUGH MAY
PROVIDE A TRIGGER ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. REGARDLESS, THE CHANCE OF
RAIN IS RATHER LOW AT ANY GIVEN SPOT.

THE AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE WARM. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S AT MOST LOCATIONS. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 80S IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF THE
POCONOS AND NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY, AS WELL AS IN THE COMMUNITIES
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY TONIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AND WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH IS ANTICIPATED TO
DROP THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
ENHANCE OUR CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
STABILIZE GRADUALLY DURING THE NIGHT.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A RIDGE SLIDING EASTWARD OVER OUR
AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO FLATTEN OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF STATES. OVERALL, THIS PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR WARMTH AND
DRYNESS ALTHOUGH A BRIEF BREAK OCCURS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY IN THE
WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE REGION NEEDS RAIN, HOWEVER IT
LOOKS LIKE THE CHCS ARE RATHER LOW GIVEN NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS MOVING
THROUGH. WE USED A MODEL/CONTINUITY BLEND FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY,
WITH A 00Z WPC GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY BLEND THEREAFTER. SOME
ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR
NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE SHIFTING WEST
AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD THEREFORE BE SHIFTING
SOUTHWESTWARD WITH TIME AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEING
FROM THE EAST OR NORTHEAST, AND WITH MORE OF AN OCEAN INFLUENCE SOME
COOLING OF THE AIRMASS IS ANTICIPATED. THE DRIER AIR MAY WIN OUT AND
THEREFORE DESPITE THE ONSHORE FLOW WE SHOULD HAVE SOME DECREASE IN
THE CLOUDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER IF THE
TRANSITION IS DELAYED OR IS NOT CLEAN LIKE SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS,
THEN A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS MAY BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE DRIER AIR
PRESSES FARTHER SOUTH. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR, THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SHOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST CHC. SINCE THE
PROSPECTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ON THE LOWER SIDE, WE KEPT
THE POPS AT OR BELOW LOW CHC, WITH THE BETTER CHC LOOKING LIKE THE
WESTERN ZONES TO PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A
WINDOW WHERE BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST. THE IDEA OF MORE CLOUDINESS/LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WAS
INCORPORATED INTO THE SKY GRIDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT,
MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CRESTS ACROSS THE
AREA, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EASE EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE ONSHORE FLOW TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY. THERE
COULD BE SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
ZONES TO START SATURDAY DEPENDING ON THE DRY AIR PUSH, OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED ATTM. WE START TO LOSE THE COOLER
ONSHORE INFLUENCE, AND THEREFORE THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO REBOUND SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING NEAR THE
U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER SHOULD FLATTEN THE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALSO FORCE
HIGH PRESSURE MORE OFFSHORE, AND A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
GRADUALLY SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY LOOKS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY, THEREFORE THE CHCS
FOR CONVECTION SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN TO OUR WEST. SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING WELL INTO CANADA AS A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY. IT IS A
WEAK COLD FRONT WITH THIS FEATURE THAT MAY END UP MOVING THROUGH OUR
AREA LATER WEDNESDAY. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF
THESE FEATURES THIS FAR OUT. GIVEN THE LINGERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH,
A SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE FRONT MAY RESULT. AS
THE FLOW IS MORE SOUTHERLY, A RATHER WARM AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE IN
PLACE WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE DEW POINTS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS THROUGH ABOUT
1300Z. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF IFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AT KMIV AND KACY EARLY THIS MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM 1300Z AND INTO THIS EVENING AT
OUR TAF SITES. SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT OUR REGION FROM THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THE CHANCE OF ANY OF OUR TAF
SITES BEING AFFECTED IS LOW AND WE WILL NOT MENTION THE POTENTIAL IN
THE TAF PRODUCTS.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO FAVOR THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST FOR TODAY AT
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. HOWEVER, A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INLAND FROM THE OCEAN AND IT SHOULD AFFECT KACY THIS AFTERNOON
BRINGING THE WIND AROUND TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST THERE.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THIS EVENING SHOULD BECOME NORTHEAST LATE
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH.
WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR OVERALL. SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR THE KPHL AREA ON WEST AND SOUTH. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUD /MVFR/ DEVELOPMENT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT KRDG TO KPHL TO KACY
ON SOUTHWARD, HOWEVER THIS IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
EAST- NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS, WITH SOME GUSTINESS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY 10-
15 KNOTS SATURDAY, DIMINISHING AND BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY SUNDAY
BEFORE TURNING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING BEFORE IT DRIFTS INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT.

THE WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO BE VARIABLE THIS MORNING BEFORE SETTLING
INTO THE SOUTHEAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. THE WIND IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. SPEEDS SHOULD
REMAIN AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 FEET
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH WAVES ON DELAWARE BAY BEING 2 FEET OR
LESS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES THROUGH, THE WINDS
WILL TURN FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AND INCREASE. IT APPEARS THAT
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS OCCUR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON THE COASTAL
WATERS LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE A
DECREASE BEGINS. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE
NEEDED. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO BUILD THE SEAS TO AROUND 5 FEET
STARTING LATE FRIDAY ON THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THEY SHIFT FROM EAST-NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH. THE SEAS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW HIGH THEY GET ON
THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030548
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
148 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MID EVENING IR/WV SAT IMAGERY SHOWING WEAKENING TROUGH ALOFT
OVERHEAD AT 01Z/9P...IN THE PROCESS OF PUSHING SE ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND COASTAL E NC. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS
ENOUGH TO SET OFF SCT TO NUMEROUS TSTMS THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS ARE QUICKLY ERODING IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER OUR
AREA, WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS SINKING FARTHER SOUTH OF OUR AREA
ALONG WITH THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE. WILL KEEP A 20-40% RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF...AND HAVE
CONTINUED TREND OF GRADUALLY DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS SHOULD THIN ENOUGH, ESPECIALLY NORTH, THAT SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WINDS DROP OFF AND WITH WET GROUND
IN A MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL AREA. LOOK FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS TO
RANGE FM THE U60S TO L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WK SFC TROUGH LINGERS OVR THE FA...ESP ERN HALF THU/THU NGT. AFTER
THAT...HI PRES ALOFT AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE NE CONUS FRI INTO SAT. WK BNDRY WILL THEN BE SETTLING S
THROUGH THE MDATLC STATES FRI AFTN INTO SAT MRNG AS SFC HI PRES
BUILDS S THROUGH NEW ENG.

ANOTHER SUMMERY DAY THU W/ VRB CLDS/PARTLY SUNNY CONDS. PSBLY
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE INVOF SEA BREEZES AND SFC TROUGH FOR INCLUSION
OF AT LEAST SLGT CHC POPS...MNLY AFTN/EVE HRS. HI TEMPS FM THE
U80S-L90S.

PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS XPCD THU NGT AND FRI AS SFC WNDS TURN
NE RESULTING IN THE START OF A COOLDOWN. ONCE AGN...LO CONFIDENCE
IN COVERAGE OF PCPN...THOUGH WILL FAVOR HIGHEST POPS INLAND FM THE
CST (BY FRI AFTN). PD OF STRATUS PSBL FRI NGT INTO SAT (MRNG) AS
WNDS PICK UP FM THE NE...WHICH USHERS IN (EVENTUALLY SAT AFTN)
DRIER AIR (AND GRADUALLY CLEARING - LASTLY ACRS SRN VA/NE NC) FM
THE NE CONUS. HANGING ONTO 20-30% POPS FRI NGT INTO SAT...THOUGH
TREND IN ANY PCPN XPCD TO BE LWRG FM NE TO SW. ALSO...WILL LIKELY
BE A BREEZY START TO THE HOLIDAY WKND...ESP ERN PORTION...W/ PTNTL
GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.

LO TEMPS THU NGT FM THE U60S-70S. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L/M80S NE TO
THE U80S-ARND 90F SSW. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE M/U70S AT THE CST TO
L80S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY WX WITH SFC HI PRES IN
THE VICINITY. FOR SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...NE FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE
FA AS SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVER THE NRN MID ATLC. WITH SOME MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER SE
AREAS SAT NGT. TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60S SAT NGT AND REACH ONLY
THE LO/MID 80S SUN AFTN. FLOW BCMS ELY MON THAN SLY BY TUE AND
WED AS THE HI SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LO/MID 80S MON TO MID/UPR 80S TUE
AND WED. BULK OF PCPN IS EXPECTED TO STAY S OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD WITH ANY CHANCE OF RAIN (20%) CONFINED TO EXTREME
SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVECTION ASSCTD WITH A SERN MOVG TROF HAS MOVED INTO NC ERLY
THIS MORNING. SKIES QUICKLY CLR BEHIND THE CONVECTION. ATTN NOW
BECOMES ONE OF DETERMINING HOW MUCH FOG DVLPS BEFORE 12Z DUE TO
THE WET GRND AND NRLY SATURATED AIRMASS. MODELS OFFER UP DIFFERENT
SOLNS ON ANY FOG DVLPMNT SO INDICATED AT LEAST MVFR CNDTNS BY 12
XCPT AT ORF. GUID SUGGESTS LCL IFR VSBYS IN FOG PSBL AT BOTH SBY/ECG.

XPCT ANY FOG TO BURN OFF BY OR SHORTLY AFTR 12Z WITH VFR CNDTNS XPCTD
THRU THE DAY (SCT CU/CI). WNDS W-NW WNDS AOB 10 KTS THRU MID MORNING
WITH CSTL TAF SITES SHFTG TO AN ONSHORE DRCTN DUE TO A SEA BREEZE.
CONVECTION CHCS THIS AFTRN/EVE LOWER THAN YSTRDY SO JUST INDCTD SCT
CU FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION PSBL AGAIN FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER
AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10
KT THIS AFTN INTO TNGT WITH A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES OVER THE
AREA...WITH WAVES/SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2 FT. SIMILAR PATTERN AND
CONDS INTO THUR WITH SOME AFTN SEABREEZES DEVELOPING. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRNT THEN DROPS INTO THE AREA FRI AS HI PRES DEVELOPS OVER
THE NE STATES. PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ENUF INTO FRI NIGHT TO
MAKE SCA CONDS PSBL OVER THE WTRS...LASTING THRU SAT AND SAT NGT
AS NE FLOW PERSISTS. WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE BY SUN AS THE SFC
HI WEAKENS AND FLOW BCMS MORE OUT OF THE E THAN NE. WINDS THEN
TURN TO THE SE THEN S MON INTO TUE WITH SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MAS



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030548
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
148 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MID EVENING IR/WV SAT IMAGERY SHOWING WEAKENING TROUGH ALOFT
OVERHEAD AT 01Z/9P...IN THE PROCESS OF PUSHING SE ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND COASTAL E NC. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS
ENOUGH TO SET OFF SCT TO NUMEROUS TSTMS THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS ARE QUICKLY ERODING IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER OUR
AREA, WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS SINKING FARTHER SOUTH OF OUR AREA
ALONG WITH THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE. WILL KEEP A 20-40% RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF...AND HAVE
CONTINUED TREND OF GRADUALLY DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS SHOULD THIN ENOUGH, ESPECIALLY NORTH, THAT SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WINDS DROP OFF AND WITH WET GROUND
IN A MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL AREA. LOOK FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS TO
RANGE FM THE U60S TO L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WK SFC TROUGH LINGERS OVR THE FA...ESP ERN HALF THU/THU NGT. AFTER
THAT...HI PRES ALOFT AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE NE CONUS FRI INTO SAT. WK BNDRY WILL THEN BE SETTLING S
THROUGH THE MDATLC STATES FRI AFTN INTO SAT MRNG AS SFC HI PRES
BUILDS S THROUGH NEW ENG.

ANOTHER SUMMERY DAY THU W/ VRB CLDS/PARTLY SUNNY CONDS. PSBLY
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE INVOF SEA BREEZES AND SFC TROUGH FOR INCLUSION
OF AT LEAST SLGT CHC POPS...MNLY AFTN/EVE HRS. HI TEMPS FM THE
U80S-L90S.

PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS XPCD THU NGT AND FRI AS SFC WNDS TURN
NE RESULTING IN THE START OF A COOLDOWN. ONCE AGN...LO CONFIDENCE
IN COVERAGE OF PCPN...THOUGH WILL FAVOR HIGHEST POPS INLAND FM THE
CST (BY FRI AFTN). PD OF STRATUS PSBL FRI NGT INTO SAT (MRNG) AS
WNDS PICK UP FM THE NE...WHICH USHERS IN (EVENTUALLY SAT AFTN)
DRIER AIR (AND GRADUALLY CLEARING - LASTLY ACRS SRN VA/NE NC) FM
THE NE CONUS. HANGING ONTO 20-30% POPS FRI NGT INTO SAT...THOUGH
TREND IN ANY PCPN XPCD TO BE LWRG FM NE TO SW. ALSO...WILL LIKELY
BE A BREEZY START TO THE HOLIDAY WKND...ESP ERN PORTION...W/ PTNTL
GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.

LO TEMPS THU NGT FM THE U60S-70S. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L/M80S NE TO
THE U80S-ARND 90F SSW. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE M/U70S AT THE CST TO
L80S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY WX WITH SFC HI PRES IN
THE VICINITY. FOR SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...NE FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE
FA AS SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVER THE NRN MID ATLC. WITH SOME MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER SE
AREAS SAT NGT. TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60S SAT NGT AND REACH ONLY
THE LO/MID 80S SUN AFTN. FLOW BCMS ELY MON THAN SLY BY TUE AND
WED AS THE HI SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LO/MID 80S MON TO MID/UPR 80S TUE
AND WED. BULK OF PCPN IS EXPECTED TO STAY S OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD WITH ANY CHANCE OF RAIN (20%) CONFINED TO EXTREME
SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVECTION ASSCTD WITH A SERN MOVG TROF HAS MOVED INTO NC ERLY
THIS MORNING. SKIES QUICKLY CLR BEHIND THE CONVECTION. ATTN NOW
BECOMES ONE OF DETERMINING HOW MUCH FOG DVLPS BEFORE 12Z DUE TO
THE WET GRND AND NRLY SATURATED AIRMASS. MODELS OFFER UP DIFFERENT
SOLNS ON ANY FOG DVLPMNT SO INDICATED AT LEAST MVFR CNDTNS BY 12
XCPT AT ORF. GUID SUGGESTS LCL IFR VSBYS IN FOG PSBL AT BOTH SBY/ECG.

XPCT ANY FOG TO BURN OFF BY OR SHORTLY AFTR 12Z WITH VFR CNDTNS XPCTD
THRU THE DAY (SCT CU/CI). WNDS W-NW WNDS AOB 10 KTS THRU MID MORNING
WITH CSTL TAF SITES SHFTG TO AN ONSHORE DRCTN DUE TO A SEA BREEZE.
CONVECTION CHCS THIS AFTRN/EVE LOWER THAN YSTRDY SO JUST INDCTD SCT
CU FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION PSBL AGAIN FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER
AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10
KT THIS AFTN INTO TNGT WITH A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES OVER THE
AREA...WITH WAVES/SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2 FT. SIMILAR PATTERN AND
CONDS INTO THUR WITH SOME AFTN SEABREEZES DEVELOPING. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRNT THEN DROPS INTO THE AREA FRI AS HI PRES DEVELOPS OVER
THE NE STATES. PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ENUF INTO FRI NIGHT TO
MAKE SCA CONDS PSBL OVER THE WTRS...LASTING THRU SAT AND SAT NGT
AS NE FLOW PERSISTS. WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE BY SUN AS THE SFC
HI WEAKENS AND FLOW BCMS MORE OUT OF THE E THAN NE. WINDS THEN
TURN TO THE SE THEN S MON INTO TUE WITH SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030548
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
148 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MID EVENING IR/WV SAT IMAGERY SHOWING WEAKENING TROUGH ALOFT
OVERHEAD AT 01Z/9P...IN THE PROCESS OF PUSHING SE ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND COASTAL E NC. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS
ENOUGH TO SET OFF SCT TO NUMEROUS TSTMS THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS ARE QUICKLY ERODING IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER OUR
AREA, WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS SINKING FARTHER SOUTH OF OUR AREA
ALONG WITH THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE. WILL KEEP A 20-40% RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF...AND HAVE
CONTINUED TREND OF GRADUALLY DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS SHOULD THIN ENOUGH, ESPECIALLY NORTH, THAT SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WINDS DROP OFF AND WITH WET GROUND
IN A MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL AREA. LOOK FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS TO
RANGE FM THE U60S TO L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WK SFC TROUGH LINGERS OVR THE FA...ESP ERN HALF THU/THU NGT. AFTER
THAT...HI PRES ALOFT AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE NE CONUS FRI INTO SAT. WK BNDRY WILL THEN BE SETTLING S
THROUGH THE MDATLC STATES FRI AFTN INTO SAT MRNG AS SFC HI PRES
BUILDS S THROUGH NEW ENG.

ANOTHER SUMMERY DAY THU W/ VRB CLDS/PARTLY SUNNY CONDS. PSBLY
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE INVOF SEA BREEZES AND SFC TROUGH FOR INCLUSION
OF AT LEAST SLGT CHC POPS...MNLY AFTN/EVE HRS. HI TEMPS FM THE
U80S-L90S.

PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS XPCD THU NGT AND FRI AS SFC WNDS TURN
NE RESULTING IN THE START OF A COOLDOWN. ONCE AGN...LO CONFIDENCE
IN COVERAGE OF PCPN...THOUGH WILL FAVOR HIGHEST POPS INLAND FM THE
CST (BY FRI AFTN). PD OF STRATUS PSBL FRI NGT INTO SAT (MRNG) AS
WNDS PICK UP FM THE NE...WHICH USHERS IN (EVENTUALLY SAT AFTN)
DRIER AIR (AND GRADUALLY CLEARING - LASTLY ACRS SRN VA/NE NC) FM
THE NE CONUS. HANGING ONTO 20-30% POPS FRI NGT INTO SAT...THOUGH
TREND IN ANY PCPN XPCD TO BE LWRG FM NE TO SW. ALSO...WILL LIKELY
BE A BREEZY START TO THE HOLIDAY WKND...ESP ERN PORTION...W/ PTNTL
GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.

LO TEMPS THU NGT FM THE U60S-70S. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L/M80S NE TO
THE U80S-ARND 90F SSW. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE M/U70S AT THE CST TO
L80S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY WX WITH SFC HI PRES IN
THE VICINITY. FOR SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...NE FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE
FA AS SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVER THE NRN MID ATLC. WITH SOME MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER SE
AREAS SAT NGT. TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60S SAT NGT AND REACH ONLY
THE LO/MID 80S SUN AFTN. FLOW BCMS ELY MON THAN SLY BY TUE AND
WED AS THE HI SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LO/MID 80S MON TO MID/UPR 80S TUE
AND WED. BULK OF PCPN IS EXPECTED TO STAY S OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD WITH ANY CHANCE OF RAIN (20%) CONFINED TO EXTREME
SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVECTION ASSCTD WITH A SERN MOVG TROF HAS MOVED INTO NC ERLY
THIS MORNING. SKIES QUICKLY CLR BEHIND THE CONVECTION. ATTN NOW
BECOMES ONE OF DETERMINING HOW MUCH FOG DVLPS BEFORE 12Z DUE TO
THE WET GRND AND NRLY SATURATED AIRMASS. MODELS OFFER UP DIFFERENT
SOLNS ON ANY FOG DVLPMNT SO INDICATED AT LEAST MVFR CNDTNS BY 12
XCPT AT ORF. GUID SUGGESTS LCL IFR VSBYS IN FOG PSBL AT BOTH SBY/ECG.

XPCT ANY FOG TO BURN OFF BY OR SHORTLY AFTR 12Z WITH VFR CNDTNS XPCTD
THRU THE DAY (SCT CU/CI). WNDS W-NW WNDS AOB 10 KTS THRU MID MORNING
WITH CSTL TAF SITES SHFTG TO AN ONSHORE DRCTN DUE TO A SEA BREEZE.
CONVECTION CHCS THIS AFTRN/EVE LOWER THAN YSTRDY SO JUST INDCTD SCT
CU FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION PSBL AGAIN FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER
AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10
KT THIS AFTN INTO TNGT WITH A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES OVER THE
AREA...WITH WAVES/SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2 FT. SIMILAR PATTERN AND
CONDS INTO THUR WITH SOME AFTN SEABREEZES DEVELOPING. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRNT THEN DROPS INTO THE AREA FRI AS HI PRES DEVELOPS OVER
THE NE STATES. PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ENUF INTO FRI NIGHT TO
MAKE SCA CONDS PSBL OVER THE WTRS...LASTING THRU SAT AND SAT NGT
AS NE FLOW PERSISTS. WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE BY SUN AS THE SFC
HI WEAKENS AND FLOW BCMS MORE OUT OF THE E THAN NE. WINDS THEN
TURN TO THE SE THEN S MON INTO TUE WITH SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KPHI 030155
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
955 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY,
AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AND REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE WEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE NEAR TERM GRIDS TONIGHT. REMOVED ALL
MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THE SHOWERS DIED
BEFORE REACHING OUR EASTERN SHORE ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE GULF COAST AND MIDWEST STATES THRU TONIGHT WHILE A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION.

UNDER A FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP THIS EVENING, EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING, FOG WILL LIKELY BE MOST WIDESPREAD
AND DENSE FROM THE DELAWARE VALLEY TO THE COAST SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE PRIMED WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS WHERE TODAY`S SEA-BREEZE FRONT
MAKES IT THRU. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER DENSE FOG
EVENT IN THE HWO. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENT OF THE DENSE
FOG TONIGHT AS THE MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THAT IS PARTIALLY
RESPONSIBLE FOR TRAPPING MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE WEAKER
TONIGHT THAN IT WAS LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY. A COUPLE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRACKING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST STATES. AT THE SURFACE, A PRESSURE TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH A SUBTLE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SHARPEN OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THRU OUR AREA WITH WEAK NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW
UNDER 10 KT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WEAKENING OF THE CAP OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH MODEST CAA OCCURRING NEAR 700 MB. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
WILL BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION THURSDAY THAN TODAY AS A
RESULT. HOWEVER, EXPECT ANY COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BE
PREDOMINATELY ISOLATED OWING TO A LACK OF ORGANIZED LIFT (EXCEPT FOR
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE BACKDOOR FRONT AND ALSO ALONG THE SEA-
BREEZE BOUNDARY).

FORECAST MAX TEMPS FOR THURSDAY VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY AND
YESTERDAY`S...80S IN THE HIGHLANDS AND ALONG THE COAST, MID 90S IN
THE URBAN AREA, AND LOW 90S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CHANCE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK,
FOLLOWED BY A QUIET WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN
SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAY DIMINISH SOME OVERNIGHT THURSDAY, BUT WE EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST
TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT, GENERALLY 0.25 INCHES OR LESS. HOWEVER, THERE
COULD BE SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS PW VALUES INCREASE TO
1.5-1.75 INCHES, ESPECIALLY WHERE THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR.

ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST FROM THE NORTH FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY, WHICH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. A
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY, AND THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE A FEW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES COOL OFF SLIGHTLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
WARMING TREND SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING
DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY
AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS TAF PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF FOG OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WENT WITH A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT, WHICH YIELDS A MUCH MORE
PESSISMISTIC FORECAST IN TERMS OF VISIBILITIES THAN ALL AVAILABLE
NWP AND STAT GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED THUS FAR. CONFIDENCE IN FOG IS
HIGHEST CLOSER TO THE COAST, SO WENT WITH LIFR AT MIV AND FOG
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

CIGS AND LOW CLOUDS LIFTS BY 14-15Z THURSDAY. VFR FOR MOST OF THE
DAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FORECAST TO DEVELOPS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FOCUS OF THIS POTENTIAL CONVECTION IS IN THE HIGHLANDS
(CLOSEST TO RDG AND ABE) AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ANTICIPATED COVERAGE
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS THIS FAR OUT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS AND/OR VSBYS,
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. GUSTY EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY E-NE WINDS AROUND 15-
20 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE AROUND
DAYBREAK EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. WINDS COULD BE
AS STRONG AS 15 KT THRU THIS EVE AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ONCE THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT MOVES INLAND.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS WITH THE EASTERLY FETCH BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. WINDS MAY APPROACH OR
EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SEAS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BACK BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON



000
FXUS61 KPHI 030155
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
955 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY,
AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AND REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE WEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE NEAR TERM GRIDS TONIGHT. REMOVED ALL
MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THE SHOWERS DIED
BEFORE REACHING OUR EASTERN SHORE ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE GULF COAST AND MIDWEST STATES THRU TONIGHT WHILE A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION.

UNDER A FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP THIS EVENING, EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING, FOG WILL LIKELY BE MOST WIDESPREAD
AND DENSE FROM THE DELAWARE VALLEY TO THE COAST SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE PRIMED WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS WHERE TODAY`S SEA-BREEZE FRONT
MAKES IT THRU. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER DENSE FOG
EVENT IN THE HWO. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENT OF THE DENSE
FOG TONIGHT AS THE MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THAT IS PARTIALLY
RESPONSIBLE FOR TRAPPING MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE WEAKER
TONIGHT THAN IT WAS LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY. A COUPLE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRACKING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST STATES. AT THE SURFACE, A PRESSURE TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH A SUBTLE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SHARPEN OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THRU OUR AREA WITH WEAK NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW
UNDER 10 KT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WEAKENING OF THE CAP OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH MODEST CAA OCCURRING NEAR 700 MB. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
WILL BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION THURSDAY THAN TODAY AS A
RESULT. HOWEVER, EXPECT ANY COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BE
PREDOMINATELY ISOLATED OWING TO A LACK OF ORGANIZED LIFT (EXCEPT FOR
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE BACKDOOR FRONT AND ALSO ALONG THE SEA-
BREEZE BOUNDARY).

FORECAST MAX TEMPS FOR THURSDAY VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY AND
YESTERDAY`S...80S IN THE HIGHLANDS AND ALONG THE COAST, MID 90S IN
THE URBAN AREA, AND LOW 90S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CHANCE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK,
FOLLOWED BY A QUIET WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN
SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAY DIMINISH SOME OVERNIGHT THURSDAY, BUT WE EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST
TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT, GENERALLY 0.25 INCHES OR LESS. HOWEVER, THERE
COULD BE SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS PW VALUES INCREASE TO
1.5-1.75 INCHES, ESPECIALLY WHERE THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR.

ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST FROM THE NORTH FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY, WHICH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. A
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY, AND THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE A FEW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES COOL OFF SLIGHTLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
WARMING TREND SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING
DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY
AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS TAF PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF FOG OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WENT WITH A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT, WHICH YIELDS A MUCH MORE
PESSISMISTIC FORECAST IN TERMS OF VISIBILITIES THAN ALL AVAILABLE
NWP AND STAT GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED THUS FAR. CONFIDENCE IN FOG IS
HIGHEST CLOSER TO THE COAST, SO WENT WITH LIFR AT MIV AND FOG
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

CIGS AND LOW CLOUDS LIFTS BY 14-15Z THURSDAY. VFR FOR MOST OF THE
DAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FORECAST TO DEVELOPS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FOCUS OF THIS POTENTIAL CONVECTION IS IN THE HIGHLANDS
(CLOSEST TO RDG AND ABE) AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ANTICIPATED COVERAGE
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS THIS FAR OUT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS AND/OR VSBYS,
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. GUSTY EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY E-NE WINDS AROUND 15-
20 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE AROUND
DAYBREAK EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. WINDS COULD BE
AS STRONG AS 15 KT THRU THIS EVE AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ONCE THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT MOVES INLAND.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS WITH THE EASTERLY FETCH BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. WINDS MAY APPROACH OR
EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SEAS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BACK BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON




000
FXUS61 KPHI 030155
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
955 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY,
AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AND REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE WEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE NEAR TERM GRIDS TONIGHT. REMOVED ALL
MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THE SHOWERS DIED
BEFORE REACHING OUR EASTERN SHORE ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE GULF COAST AND MIDWEST STATES THRU TONIGHT WHILE A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION.

UNDER A FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP THIS EVENING, EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING, FOG WILL LIKELY BE MOST WIDESPREAD
AND DENSE FROM THE DELAWARE VALLEY TO THE COAST SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE PRIMED WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS WHERE TODAY`S SEA-BREEZE FRONT
MAKES IT THRU. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER DENSE FOG
EVENT IN THE HWO. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENT OF THE DENSE
FOG TONIGHT AS THE MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THAT IS PARTIALLY
RESPONSIBLE FOR TRAPPING MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE WEAKER
TONIGHT THAN IT WAS LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY. A COUPLE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRACKING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST STATES. AT THE SURFACE, A PRESSURE TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH A SUBTLE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SHARPEN OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THRU OUR AREA WITH WEAK NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW
UNDER 10 KT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WEAKENING OF THE CAP OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH MODEST CAA OCCURRING NEAR 700 MB. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
WILL BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION THURSDAY THAN TODAY AS A
RESULT. HOWEVER, EXPECT ANY COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BE
PREDOMINATELY ISOLATED OWING TO A LACK OF ORGANIZED LIFT (EXCEPT FOR
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE BACKDOOR FRONT AND ALSO ALONG THE SEA-
BREEZE BOUNDARY).

FORECAST MAX TEMPS FOR THURSDAY VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY AND
YESTERDAY`S...80S IN THE HIGHLANDS AND ALONG THE COAST, MID 90S IN
THE URBAN AREA, AND LOW 90S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CHANCE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK,
FOLLOWED BY A QUIET WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN
SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAY DIMINISH SOME OVERNIGHT THURSDAY, BUT WE EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST
TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT, GENERALLY 0.25 INCHES OR LESS. HOWEVER, THERE
COULD BE SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS PW VALUES INCREASE TO
1.5-1.75 INCHES, ESPECIALLY WHERE THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR.

ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST FROM THE NORTH FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY, WHICH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. A
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY, AND THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE A FEW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES COOL OFF SLIGHTLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
WARMING TREND SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING
DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY
AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS TAF PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF FOG OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WENT WITH A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT, WHICH YIELDS A MUCH MORE
PESSISMISTIC FORECAST IN TERMS OF VISIBILITIES THAN ALL AVAILABLE
NWP AND STAT GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED THUS FAR. CONFIDENCE IN FOG IS
HIGHEST CLOSER TO THE COAST, SO WENT WITH LIFR AT MIV AND FOG
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

CIGS AND LOW CLOUDS LIFTS BY 14-15Z THURSDAY. VFR FOR MOST OF THE
DAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FORECAST TO DEVELOPS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FOCUS OF THIS POTENTIAL CONVECTION IS IN THE HIGHLANDS
(CLOSEST TO RDG AND ABE) AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ANTICIPATED COVERAGE
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS THIS FAR OUT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS AND/OR VSBYS,
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. GUSTY EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY E-NE WINDS AROUND 15-
20 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE AROUND
DAYBREAK EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. WINDS COULD BE
AS STRONG AS 15 KT THRU THIS EVE AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ONCE THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT MOVES INLAND.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS WITH THE EASTERLY FETCH BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. WINDS MAY APPROACH OR
EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SEAS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BACK BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON



000
FXUS61 KPHI 030155
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
955 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY,
AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AND REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE WEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE NEAR TERM GRIDS TONIGHT. REMOVED ALL
MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THE SHOWERS DIED
BEFORE REACHING OUR EASTERN SHORE ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE GULF COAST AND MIDWEST STATES THRU TONIGHT WHILE A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION.

UNDER A FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP THIS EVENING, EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING, FOG WILL LIKELY BE MOST WIDESPREAD
AND DENSE FROM THE DELAWARE VALLEY TO THE COAST SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE PRIMED WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS WHERE TODAY`S SEA-BREEZE FRONT
MAKES IT THRU. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER DENSE FOG
EVENT IN THE HWO. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENT OF THE DENSE
FOG TONIGHT AS THE MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THAT IS PARTIALLY
RESPONSIBLE FOR TRAPPING MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE WEAKER
TONIGHT THAN IT WAS LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY. A COUPLE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRACKING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST STATES. AT THE SURFACE, A PRESSURE TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH A SUBTLE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SHARPEN OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THRU OUR AREA WITH WEAK NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW
UNDER 10 KT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WEAKENING OF THE CAP OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH MODEST CAA OCCURRING NEAR 700 MB. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
WILL BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION THURSDAY THAN TODAY AS A
RESULT. HOWEVER, EXPECT ANY COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BE
PREDOMINATELY ISOLATED OWING TO A LACK OF ORGANIZED LIFT (EXCEPT FOR
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE BACKDOOR FRONT AND ALSO ALONG THE SEA-
BREEZE BOUNDARY).

FORECAST MAX TEMPS FOR THURSDAY VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY AND
YESTERDAY`S...80S IN THE HIGHLANDS AND ALONG THE COAST, MID 90S IN
THE URBAN AREA, AND LOW 90S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CHANCE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK,
FOLLOWED BY A QUIET WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN
SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAY DIMINISH SOME OVERNIGHT THURSDAY, BUT WE EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST
TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT, GENERALLY 0.25 INCHES OR LESS. HOWEVER, THERE
COULD BE SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS PW VALUES INCREASE TO
1.5-1.75 INCHES, ESPECIALLY WHERE THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR.

ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST FROM THE NORTH FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY, WHICH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. A
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY, AND THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE A FEW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES COOL OFF SLIGHTLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
WARMING TREND SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING
DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY
AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS TAF PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF FOG OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WENT WITH A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT, WHICH YIELDS A MUCH MORE
PESSISMISTIC FORECAST IN TERMS OF VISIBILITIES THAN ALL AVAILABLE
NWP AND STAT GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED THUS FAR. CONFIDENCE IN FOG IS
HIGHEST CLOSER TO THE COAST, SO WENT WITH LIFR AT MIV AND FOG
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

CIGS AND LOW CLOUDS LIFTS BY 14-15Z THURSDAY. VFR FOR MOST OF THE
DAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FORECAST TO DEVELOPS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FOCUS OF THIS POTENTIAL CONVECTION IS IN THE HIGHLANDS
(CLOSEST TO RDG AND ABE) AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ANTICIPATED COVERAGE
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS THIS FAR OUT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS AND/OR VSBYS,
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. GUSTY EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY E-NE WINDS AROUND 15-
20 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE AROUND
DAYBREAK EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. WINDS COULD BE
AS STRONG AS 15 KT THRU THIS EVE AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ONCE THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT MOVES INLAND.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS WITH THE EASTERLY FETCH BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. WINDS MAY APPROACH OR
EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SEAS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BACK BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030137
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
937 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MID EVENING IR/WV SAT IMAGERY SHOWING WEAKENING TROUGH ALOFT
OVERHEAD AT 01Z/9P...IN THE PROCESS OF PUSHING SE ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND COASTAL E NC. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS
ENOUGH TO SET OFF SCT TO NUMEROUS TSTMS THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS ARE QUICKLY ERODING IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER OUR
AREA, WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS SINKING FARTHER SOUTH OF OUR AREA
ALONG WITH THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE. WILL KEEP A 20-40% RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF...AND HAVE
CONTINUED TREND OF GRADUALLY DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS SHOULD THIN ENOUGH, ESPECIALLY NORTH, THAT SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WINDS DROP OFF AND WITH WET GROUND
IN A MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL AREA. LOOK FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS TO
RANGE FM THE U60S TO L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WK SFC TROUGH LINGERS OVR THE FA...ESP ERN HALF THU/THU NGT. AFTER
THAT...HI PRES ALOFT AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE NE CONUS FRI INTO SAT. WK BNDRY WILL THEN BE SETTLING S
THROUGH THE MDATLC STATES FRI AFTN INTO SAT MRNG AS SFC HI PRES
BUILDS S THROUGH NEW ENG.

ANOTHER SUMMERY DAY THU W/ VRB CLDS/PARTLY SUNNY CONDS. PSBLY
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE INVOF SEA BREEZES AND SFC TROUGH FOR INCLUSION
OF AT LEAST SLGT CHC POPS...MNLY AFTN/EVE HRS. HI TEMPS FM THE
U80S-L90S.

PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS XPCD THU NGT AND FRI AS SFC WNDS TURN
NE RESULTING IN THE START OF A COOLDOWN. ONCE AGN...LO CONFIDENCE
IN COVERAGE OF PCPN...THOUGH WILL FAVOR HIGHEST POPS INLAND FM THE
CST (BY FRI AFTN). PD OF STRATUS PSBL FRI NGT INTO SAT (MRNG) AS
WNDS PICK UP FM THE NE...WHICH USHERS IN (EVENTUALLY SAT AFTN)
DRIER AIR (AND GRADUALLY CLEARING - LASTLY ACRS SRN VA/NE NC) FM
THE NE CONUS. HANGING ONTO 20-30% POPS FRI NGT INTO SAT...THOUGH
TREND IN ANY PCPN XPCD TO BE LWRG FM NE TO SW. ALSO...WILL LIKELY
BE A BREEZY START TO THE HOLIDAY WKND...ESP ERN PORTION...W/ PTNTL
GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.

LO TEMPS THU NGT FM THE U60S-70S. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L/M80S NE TO
THE U80S-ARND 90F SSW. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE M/U70S AT THE CST TO
L80S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY WX WITH SFC HI PRES IN
THE VICINITY. FOR SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...NE FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE
FA AS SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVER THE NRN MID ATLC. WITH SOME MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER SE
AREAS SAT NGT. TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60S SAT NGT AND REACH ONLY
THE LO/MID 80S SUN AFTN. FLOW BCMS ELY MON THAN SLY BY TUE AND
WED AS THE HI SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LO/MID 80S MON TO MID/UPR 80S TUE
AND WED. BULK OF PCPN IS EXPECTED TO STAY S OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD WITH ANY CHANCE OF RAIN (20%) CONFINED TO EXTREME
SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERSISTENT SHOWERS/TSTMS CONT OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY
OVER SOUTHERN VA AND NRN NC. ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH AND WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY DISSIPATED BY MIDNIGHT. EXPECT
LITTLE AFFECT TO TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR PSBLY ECG THRU THAT TIME.
LIGHT WNDS AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE STORMS MAY BRING SOME
OVERNIGHT AREAS OF FOG. HAVE ELECTED TO GENERALLY SHOW 2-3 MILES
AND FOG FOR MOST TERMINALS BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME
LOCALLY DENSE FOG DEVELOPS. KECG HAD LIFR CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING...AND THREAT FOR THIS OCCURRING THURSDAY MORNING EXISTS.

OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SCTD MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHWRS/TSTMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME STRATUS AND FOG AT SOME OF THE
TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OCEAN STRATUS LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10
KT THIS AFTN INTO TNGT WITH A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES OVER THE
AREA...WITH WAVES/SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2 FT. SIMILAR PATTERN AND
CONDS INTO THUR WITH SOME AFTN SEABREEZES DEVELOPING. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRNT THEN DROPS INTO THE AREA FRI AS HI PRES DEVELOPS OVER
THE NE STATES. PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ENUF INTO FRI NIGHT TO
MAKE SCA CONDS PSBL OVER THE WTRS...LASTING THRU SAT AND SAT NGT
AS NE FLOW PERSISTS. WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE BY SUN AS THE SFC
HI WEAKENS AND FLOW BCMS MORE OUT OF THE E THAN NE. WINDS THEN
TURN TO THE SE THEN S MON INTO TUE WITH SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JEF/WRS
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030137
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
937 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MID EVENING IR/WV SAT IMAGERY SHOWING WEAKENING TROUGH ALOFT
OVERHEAD AT 01Z/9P...IN THE PROCESS OF PUSHING SE ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND COASTAL E NC. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS
ENOUGH TO SET OFF SCT TO NUMEROUS TSTMS THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS ARE QUICKLY ERODING IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER OUR
AREA, WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS SINKING FARTHER SOUTH OF OUR AREA
ALONG WITH THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE. WILL KEEP A 20-40% RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF...AND HAVE
CONTINUED TREND OF GRADUALLY DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS SHOULD THIN ENOUGH, ESPECIALLY NORTH, THAT SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WINDS DROP OFF AND WITH WET GROUND
IN A MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL AREA. LOOK FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS TO
RANGE FM THE U60S TO L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WK SFC TROUGH LINGERS OVR THE FA...ESP ERN HALF THU/THU NGT. AFTER
THAT...HI PRES ALOFT AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE NE CONUS FRI INTO SAT. WK BNDRY WILL THEN BE SETTLING S
THROUGH THE MDATLC STATES FRI AFTN INTO SAT MRNG AS SFC HI PRES
BUILDS S THROUGH NEW ENG.

ANOTHER SUMMERY DAY THU W/ VRB CLDS/PARTLY SUNNY CONDS. PSBLY
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE INVOF SEA BREEZES AND SFC TROUGH FOR INCLUSION
OF AT LEAST SLGT CHC POPS...MNLY AFTN/EVE HRS. HI TEMPS FM THE
U80S-L90S.

PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS XPCD THU NGT AND FRI AS SFC WNDS TURN
NE RESULTING IN THE START OF A COOLDOWN. ONCE AGN...LO CONFIDENCE
IN COVERAGE OF PCPN...THOUGH WILL FAVOR HIGHEST POPS INLAND FM THE
CST (BY FRI AFTN). PD OF STRATUS PSBL FRI NGT INTO SAT (MRNG) AS
WNDS PICK UP FM THE NE...WHICH USHERS IN (EVENTUALLY SAT AFTN)
DRIER AIR (AND GRADUALLY CLEARING - LASTLY ACRS SRN VA/NE NC) FM
THE NE CONUS. HANGING ONTO 20-30% POPS FRI NGT INTO SAT...THOUGH
TREND IN ANY PCPN XPCD TO BE LWRG FM NE TO SW. ALSO...WILL LIKELY
BE A BREEZY START TO THE HOLIDAY WKND...ESP ERN PORTION...W/ PTNTL
GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.

LO TEMPS THU NGT FM THE U60S-70S. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L/M80S NE TO
THE U80S-ARND 90F SSW. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE M/U70S AT THE CST TO
L80S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY WX WITH SFC HI PRES IN
THE VICINITY. FOR SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...NE FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE
FA AS SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVER THE NRN MID ATLC. WITH SOME MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER SE
AREAS SAT NGT. TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60S SAT NGT AND REACH ONLY
THE LO/MID 80S SUN AFTN. FLOW BCMS ELY MON THAN SLY BY TUE AND
WED AS THE HI SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LO/MID 80S MON TO MID/UPR 80S TUE
AND WED. BULK OF PCPN IS EXPECTED TO STAY S OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD WITH ANY CHANCE OF RAIN (20%) CONFINED TO EXTREME
SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERSISTENT SHOWERS/TSTMS CONT OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY
OVER SOUTHERN VA AND NRN NC. ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH AND WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY DISSIPATED BY MIDNIGHT. EXPECT
LITTLE AFFECT TO TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR PSBLY ECG THRU THAT TIME.
LIGHT WNDS AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE STORMS MAY BRING SOME
OVERNIGHT AREAS OF FOG. HAVE ELECTED TO GENERALLY SHOW 2-3 MILES
AND FOG FOR MOST TERMINALS BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME
LOCALLY DENSE FOG DEVELOPS. KECG HAD LIFR CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING...AND THREAT FOR THIS OCCURRING THURSDAY MORNING EXISTS.

OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SCTD MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHWRS/TSTMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME STRATUS AND FOG AT SOME OF THE
TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OCEAN STRATUS LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10
KT THIS AFTN INTO TNGT WITH A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES OVER THE
AREA...WITH WAVES/SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2 FT. SIMILAR PATTERN AND
CONDS INTO THUR WITH SOME AFTN SEABREEZES DEVELOPING. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRNT THEN DROPS INTO THE AREA FRI AS HI PRES DEVELOPS OVER
THE NE STATES. PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ENUF INTO FRI NIGHT TO
MAKE SCA CONDS PSBL OVER THE WTRS...LASTING THRU SAT AND SAT NGT
AS NE FLOW PERSISTS. WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE BY SUN AS THE SFC
HI WEAKENS AND FLOW BCMS MORE OUT OF THE E THAN NE. WINDS THEN
TURN TO THE SE THEN S MON INTO TUE WITH SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JEF/WRS
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030137
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
937 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MID EVENING IR/WV SAT IMAGERY SHOWING WEAKENING TROUGH ALOFT
OVERHEAD AT 01Z/9P...IN THE PROCESS OF PUSHING SE ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND COASTAL E NC. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS
ENOUGH TO SET OFF SCT TO NUMEROUS TSTMS THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS ARE QUICKLY ERODING IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER OUR
AREA, WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS SINKING FARTHER SOUTH OF OUR AREA
ALONG WITH THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE. WILL KEEP A 20-40% RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF...AND HAVE
CONTINUED TREND OF GRADUALLY DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS SHOULD THIN ENOUGH, ESPECIALLY NORTH, THAT SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WINDS DROP OFF AND WITH WET GROUND
IN A MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL AREA. LOOK FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS TO
RANGE FM THE U60S TO L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WK SFC TROUGH LINGERS OVR THE FA...ESP ERN HALF THU/THU NGT. AFTER
THAT...HI PRES ALOFT AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE NE CONUS FRI INTO SAT. WK BNDRY WILL THEN BE SETTLING S
THROUGH THE MDATLC STATES FRI AFTN INTO SAT MRNG AS SFC HI PRES
BUILDS S THROUGH NEW ENG.

ANOTHER SUMMERY DAY THU W/ VRB CLDS/PARTLY SUNNY CONDS. PSBLY
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE INVOF SEA BREEZES AND SFC TROUGH FOR INCLUSION
OF AT LEAST SLGT CHC POPS...MNLY AFTN/EVE HRS. HI TEMPS FM THE
U80S-L90S.

PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS XPCD THU NGT AND FRI AS SFC WNDS TURN
NE RESULTING IN THE START OF A COOLDOWN. ONCE AGN...LO CONFIDENCE
IN COVERAGE OF PCPN...THOUGH WILL FAVOR HIGHEST POPS INLAND FM THE
CST (BY FRI AFTN). PD OF STRATUS PSBL FRI NGT INTO SAT (MRNG) AS
WNDS PICK UP FM THE NE...WHICH USHERS IN (EVENTUALLY SAT AFTN)
DRIER AIR (AND GRADUALLY CLEARING - LASTLY ACRS SRN VA/NE NC) FM
THE NE CONUS. HANGING ONTO 20-30% POPS FRI NGT INTO SAT...THOUGH
TREND IN ANY PCPN XPCD TO BE LWRG FM NE TO SW. ALSO...WILL LIKELY
BE A BREEZY START TO THE HOLIDAY WKND...ESP ERN PORTION...W/ PTNTL
GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.

LO TEMPS THU NGT FM THE U60S-70S. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L/M80S NE TO
THE U80S-ARND 90F SSW. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE M/U70S AT THE CST TO
L80S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY WX WITH SFC HI PRES IN
THE VICINITY. FOR SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...NE FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE
FA AS SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVER THE NRN MID ATLC. WITH SOME MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER SE
AREAS SAT NGT. TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60S SAT NGT AND REACH ONLY
THE LO/MID 80S SUN AFTN. FLOW BCMS ELY MON THAN SLY BY TUE AND
WED AS THE HI SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LO/MID 80S MON TO MID/UPR 80S TUE
AND WED. BULK OF PCPN IS EXPECTED TO STAY S OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD WITH ANY CHANCE OF RAIN (20%) CONFINED TO EXTREME
SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERSISTENT SHOWERS/TSTMS CONT OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY
OVER SOUTHERN VA AND NRN NC. ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH AND WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY DISSIPATED BY MIDNIGHT. EXPECT
LITTLE AFFECT TO TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR PSBLY ECG THRU THAT TIME.
LIGHT WNDS AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE STORMS MAY BRING SOME
OVERNIGHT AREAS OF FOG. HAVE ELECTED TO GENERALLY SHOW 2-3 MILES
AND FOG FOR MOST TERMINALS BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME
LOCALLY DENSE FOG DEVELOPS. KECG HAD LIFR CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING...AND THREAT FOR THIS OCCURRING THURSDAY MORNING EXISTS.

OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SCTD MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHWRS/TSTMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME STRATUS AND FOG AT SOME OF THE
TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OCEAN STRATUS LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10
KT THIS AFTN INTO TNGT WITH A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES OVER THE
AREA...WITH WAVES/SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2 FT. SIMILAR PATTERN AND
CONDS INTO THUR WITH SOME AFTN SEABREEZES DEVELOPING. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRNT THEN DROPS INTO THE AREA FRI AS HI PRES DEVELOPS OVER
THE NE STATES. PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ENUF INTO FRI NIGHT TO
MAKE SCA CONDS PSBL OVER THE WTRS...LASTING THRU SAT AND SAT NGT
AS NE FLOW PERSISTS. WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE BY SUN AS THE SFC
HI WEAKENS AND FLOW BCMS MORE OUT OF THE E THAN NE. WINDS THEN
TURN TO THE SE THEN S MON INTO TUE WITH SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JEF/WRS
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030137
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
937 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MID EVENING IR/WV SAT IMAGERY SHOWING WEAKENING TROUGH ALOFT
OVERHEAD AT 01Z/9P...IN THE PROCESS OF PUSHING SE ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND COASTAL E NC. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS
ENOUGH TO SET OFF SCT TO NUMEROUS TSTMS THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS ARE QUICKLY ERODING IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER OUR
AREA, WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS SINKING FARTHER SOUTH OF OUR AREA
ALONG WITH THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE. WILL KEEP A 20-40% RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF...AND HAVE
CONTINUED TREND OF GRADUALLY DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS SHOULD THIN ENOUGH, ESPECIALLY NORTH, THAT SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WINDS DROP OFF AND WITH WET GROUND
IN A MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL AREA. LOOK FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS TO
RANGE FM THE U60S TO L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WK SFC TROUGH LINGERS OVR THE FA...ESP ERN HALF THU/THU NGT. AFTER
THAT...HI PRES ALOFT AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE NE CONUS FRI INTO SAT. WK BNDRY WILL THEN BE SETTLING S
THROUGH THE MDATLC STATES FRI AFTN INTO SAT MRNG AS SFC HI PRES
BUILDS S THROUGH NEW ENG.

ANOTHER SUMMERY DAY THU W/ VRB CLDS/PARTLY SUNNY CONDS. PSBLY
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE INVOF SEA BREEZES AND SFC TROUGH FOR INCLUSION
OF AT LEAST SLGT CHC POPS...MNLY AFTN/EVE HRS. HI TEMPS FM THE
U80S-L90S.

PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS XPCD THU NGT AND FRI AS SFC WNDS TURN
NE RESULTING IN THE START OF A COOLDOWN. ONCE AGN...LO CONFIDENCE
IN COVERAGE OF PCPN...THOUGH WILL FAVOR HIGHEST POPS INLAND FM THE
CST (BY FRI AFTN). PD OF STRATUS PSBL FRI NGT INTO SAT (MRNG) AS
WNDS PICK UP FM THE NE...WHICH USHERS IN (EVENTUALLY SAT AFTN)
DRIER AIR (AND GRADUALLY CLEARING - LASTLY ACRS SRN VA/NE NC) FM
THE NE CONUS. HANGING ONTO 20-30% POPS FRI NGT INTO SAT...THOUGH
TREND IN ANY PCPN XPCD TO BE LWRG FM NE TO SW. ALSO...WILL LIKELY
BE A BREEZY START TO THE HOLIDAY WKND...ESP ERN PORTION...W/ PTNTL
GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.

LO TEMPS THU NGT FM THE U60S-70S. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L/M80S NE TO
THE U80S-ARND 90F SSW. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE M/U70S AT THE CST TO
L80S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY WX WITH SFC HI PRES IN
THE VICINITY. FOR SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...NE FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE
FA AS SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVER THE NRN MID ATLC. WITH SOME MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER SE
AREAS SAT NGT. TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60S SAT NGT AND REACH ONLY
THE LO/MID 80S SUN AFTN. FLOW BCMS ELY MON THAN SLY BY TUE AND
WED AS THE HI SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LO/MID 80S MON TO MID/UPR 80S TUE
AND WED. BULK OF PCPN IS EXPECTED TO STAY S OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD WITH ANY CHANCE OF RAIN (20%) CONFINED TO EXTREME
SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERSISTENT SHOWERS/TSTMS CONT OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY
OVER SOUTHERN VA AND NRN NC. ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH AND WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY DISSIPATED BY MIDNIGHT. EXPECT
LITTLE AFFECT TO TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR PSBLY ECG THRU THAT TIME.
LIGHT WNDS AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE STORMS MAY BRING SOME
OVERNIGHT AREAS OF FOG. HAVE ELECTED TO GENERALLY SHOW 2-3 MILES
AND FOG FOR MOST TERMINALS BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME
LOCALLY DENSE FOG DEVELOPS. KECG HAD LIFR CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING...AND THREAT FOR THIS OCCURRING THURSDAY MORNING EXISTS.

OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SCTD MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHWRS/TSTMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME STRATUS AND FOG AT SOME OF THE
TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OCEAN STRATUS LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10
KT THIS AFTN INTO TNGT WITH A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES OVER THE
AREA...WITH WAVES/SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2 FT. SIMILAR PATTERN AND
CONDS INTO THUR WITH SOME AFTN SEABREEZES DEVELOPING. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRNT THEN DROPS INTO THE AREA FRI AS HI PRES DEVELOPS OVER
THE NE STATES. PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ENUF INTO FRI NIGHT TO
MAKE SCA CONDS PSBL OVER THE WTRS...LASTING THRU SAT AND SAT NGT
AS NE FLOW PERSISTS. WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE BY SUN AS THE SFC
HI WEAKENS AND FLOW BCMS MORE OUT OF THE E THAN NE. WINDS THEN
TURN TO THE SE THEN S MON INTO TUE WITH SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JEF/WRS
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030137
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
937 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MID EVENING IR/WV SAT IMAGERY SHOWING WEAKENING TROUGH ALOFT
OVERHEAD AT 01Z/9P...IN THE PROCESS OF PUSHING SE ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND COASTAL E NC. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS
ENOUGH TO SET OFF SCT TO NUMEROUS TSTMS THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS ARE QUICKLY ERODING IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER OUR
AREA, WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS SINKING FARTHER SOUTH OF OUR AREA
ALONG WITH THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE. WILL KEEP A 20-40% RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF...AND HAVE
CONTINUED TREND OF GRADUALLY DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS SHOULD THIN ENOUGH, ESPECIALLY NORTH, THAT SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WINDS DROP OFF AND WITH WET GROUND
IN A MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL AREA. LOOK FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS TO
RANGE FM THE U60S TO L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WK SFC TROUGH LINGERS OVR THE FA...ESP ERN HALF THU/THU NGT. AFTER
THAT...HI PRES ALOFT AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE NE CONUS FRI INTO SAT. WK BNDRY WILL THEN BE SETTLING S
THROUGH THE MDATLC STATES FRI AFTN INTO SAT MRNG AS SFC HI PRES
BUILDS S THROUGH NEW ENG.

ANOTHER SUMMERY DAY THU W/ VRB CLDS/PARTLY SUNNY CONDS. PSBLY
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE INVOF SEA BREEZES AND SFC TROUGH FOR INCLUSION
OF AT LEAST SLGT CHC POPS...MNLY AFTN/EVE HRS. HI TEMPS FM THE
U80S-L90S.

PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS XPCD THU NGT AND FRI AS SFC WNDS TURN
NE RESULTING IN THE START OF A COOLDOWN. ONCE AGN...LO CONFIDENCE
IN COVERAGE OF PCPN...THOUGH WILL FAVOR HIGHEST POPS INLAND FM THE
CST (BY FRI AFTN). PD OF STRATUS PSBL FRI NGT INTO SAT (MRNG) AS
WNDS PICK UP FM THE NE...WHICH USHERS IN (EVENTUALLY SAT AFTN)
DRIER AIR (AND GRADUALLY CLEARING - LASTLY ACRS SRN VA/NE NC) FM
THE NE CONUS. HANGING ONTO 20-30% POPS FRI NGT INTO SAT...THOUGH
TREND IN ANY PCPN XPCD TO BE LWRG FM NE TO SW. ALSO...WILL LIKELY
BE A BREEZY START TO THE HOLIDAY WKND...ESP ERN PORTION...W/ PTNTL
GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.

LO TEMPS THU NGT FM THE U60S-70S. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L/M80S NE TO
THE U80S-ARND 90F SSW. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE M/U70S AT THE CST TO
L80S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY WX WITH SFC HI PRES IN
THE VICINITY. FOR SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...NE FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE
FA AS SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVER THE NRN MID ATLC. WITH SOME MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER SE
AREAS SAT NGT. TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60S SAT NGT AND REACH ONLY
THE LO/MID 80S SUN AFTN. FLOW BCMS ELY MON THAN SLY BY TUE AND
WED AS THE HI SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LO/MID 80S MON TO MID/UPR 80S TUE
AND WED. BULK OF PCPN IS EXPECTED TO STAY S OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD WITH ANY CHANCE OF RAIN (20%) CONFINED TO EXTREME
SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERSISTENT SHOWERS/TSTMS CONT OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY
OVER SOUTHERN VA AND NRN NC. ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH AND WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY DISSIPATED BY MIDNIGHT. EXPECT
LITTLE AFFECT TO TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR PSBLY ECG THRU THAT TIME.
LIGHT WNDS AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE STORMS MAY BRING SOME
OVERNIGHT AREAS OF FOG. HAVE ELECTED TO GENERALLY SHOW 2-3 MILES
AND FOG FOR MOST TERMINALS BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME
LOCALLY DENSE FOG DEVELOPS. KECG HAD LIFR CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING...AND THREAT FOR THIS OCCURRING THURSDAY MORNING EXISTS.

OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SCTD MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHWRS/TSTMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME STRATUS AND FOG AT SOME OF THE
TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OCEAN STRATUS LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10
KT THIS AFTN INTO TNGT WITH A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES OVER THE
AREA...WITH WAVES/SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2 FT. SIMILAR PATTERN AND
CONDS INTO THUR WITH SOME AFTN SEABREEZES DEVELOPING. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRNT THEN DROPS INTO THE AREA FRI AS HI PRES DEVELOPS OVER
THE NE STATES. PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ENUF INTO FRI NIGHT TO
MAKE SCA CONDS PSBL OVER THE WTRS...LASTING THRU SAT AND SAT NGT
AS NE FLOW PERSISTS. WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE BY SUN AS THE SFC
HI WEAKENS AND FLOW BCMS MORE OUT OF THE E THAN NE. WINDS THEN
TURN TO THE SE THEN S MON INTO TUE WITH SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JEF/WRS
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030137
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
937 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MID EVENING IR/WV SAT IMAGERY SHOWING WEAKENING TROUGH ALOFT
OVERHEAD AT 01Z/9P...IN THE PROCESS OF PUSHING SE ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND COASTAL E NC. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS
ENOUGH TO SET OFF SCT TO NUMEROUS TSTMS THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS ARE QUICKLY ERODING IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER OUR
AREA, WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS SINKING FARTHER SOUTH OF OUR AREA
ALONG WITH THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE. WILL KEEP A 20-40% RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF...AND HAVE
CONTINUED TREND OF GRADUALLY DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS SHOULD THIN ENOUGH, ESPECIALLY NORTH, THAT SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WINDS DROP OFF AND WITH WET GROUND
IN A MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL AREA. LOOK FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS TO
RANGE FM THE U60S TO L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WK SFC TROUGH LINGERS OVR THE FA...ESP ERN HALF THU/THU NGT. AFTER
THAT...HI PRES ALOFT AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE NE CONUS FRI INTO SAT. WK BNDRY WILL THEN BE SETTLING S
THROUGH THE MDATLC STATES FRI AFTN INTO SAT MRNG AS SFC HI PRES
BUILDS S THROUGH NEW ENG.

ANOTHER SUMMERY DAY THU W/ VRB CLDS/PARTLY SUNNY CONDS. PSBLY
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE INVOF SEA BREEZES AND SFC TROUGH FOR INCLUSION
OF AT LEAST SLGT CHC POPS...MNLY AFTN/EVE HRS. HI TEMPS FM THE
U80S-L90S.

PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS XPCD THU NGT AND FRI AS SFC WNDS TURN
NE RESULTING IN THE START OF A COOLDOWN. ONCE AGN...LO CONFIDENCE
IN COVERAGE OF PCPN...THOUGH WILL FAVOR HIGHEST POPS INLAND FM THE
CST (BY FRI AFTN). PD OF STRATUS PSBL FRI NGT INTO SAT (MRNG) AS
WNDS PICK UP FM THE NE...WHICH USHERS IN (EVENTUALLY SAT AFTN)
DRIER AIR (AND GRADUALLY CLEARING - LASTLY ACRS SRN VA/NE NC) FM
THE NE CONUS. HANGING ONTO 20-30% POPS FRI NGT INTO SAT...THOUGH
TREND IN ANY PCPN XPCD TO BE LWRG FM NE TO SW. ALSO...WILL LIKELY
BE A BREEZY START TO THE HOLIDAY WKND...ESP ERN PORTION...W/ PTNTL
GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.

LO TEMPS THU NGT FM THE U60S-70S. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L/M80S NE TO
THE U80S-ARND 90F SSW. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE M/U70S AT THE CST TO
L80S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY WX WITH SFC HI PRES IN
THE VICINITY. FOR SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...NE FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE
FA AS SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVER THE NRN MID ATLC. WITH SOME MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER SE
AREAS SAT NGT. TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60S SAT NGT AND REACH ONLY
THE LO/MID 80S SUN AFTN. FLOW BCMS ELY MON THAN SLY BY TUE AND
WED AS THE HI SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LO/MID 80S MON TO MID/UPR 80S TUE
AND WED. BULK OF PCPN IS EXPECTED TO STAY S OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD WITH ANY CHANCE OF RAIN (20%) CONFINED TO EXTREME
SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERSISTENT SHOWERS/TSTMS CONT OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY
OVER SOUTHERN VA AND NRN NC. ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH AND WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY DISSIPATED BY MIDNIGHT. EXPECT
LITTLE AFFECT TO TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR PSBLY ECG THRU THAT TIME.
LIGHT WNDS AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE STORMS MAY BRING SOME
OVERNIGHT AREAS OF FOG. HAVE ELECTED TO GENERALLY SHOW 2-3 MILES
AND FOG FOR MOST TERMINALS BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME
LOCALLY DENSE FOG DEVELOPS. KECG HAD LIFR CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING...AND THREAT FOR THIS OCCURRING THURSDAY MORNING EXISTS.

OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SCTD MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHWRS/TSTMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME STRATUS AND FOG AT SOME OF THE
TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OCEAN STRATUS LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10
KT THIS AFTN INTO TNGT WITH A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES OVER THE
AREA...WITH WAVES/SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2 FT. SIMILAR PATTERN AND
CONDS INTO THUR WITH SOME AFTN SEABREEZES DEVELOPING. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRNT THEN DROPS INTO THE AREA FRI AS HI PRES DEVELOPS OVER
THE NE STATES. PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ENUF INTO FRI NIGHT TO
MAKE SCA CONDS PSBL OVER THE WTRS...LASTING THRU SAT AND SAT NGT
AS NE FLOW PERSISTS. WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE BY SUN AS THE SFC
HI WEAKENS AND FLOW BCMS MORE OUT OF THE E THAN NE. WINDS THEN
TURN TO THE SE THEN S MON INTO TUE WITH SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JEF/WRS
MARINE...MAS



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030124
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
924 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ISOLD/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS WILL CONT THROUGH THIS EVE AS WEAKENING
TROUGH ALOFT TRACKS ACRS THE FA. XPCG TREND DOWN IN COVERAGE AFT
01-04Z/03. OTRW...VRB CLDS THROUGH TNGT. LOCALLY HEAVY RA PSBL IN
ANY STMS. LO TEMPS FM THE U60S-L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WK SFC TROUGH LINGERS OVR THE FA...ESP ERN HALF THU/THU NGT. AFTER
THAT...HI PRES ALOFT AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE NE CONUS FRI INTO SAT. WK BNDRY WILL THEN BE SETTLING S
THROUGH THE MDATLC STATES FRI AFTN INTO SAT MRNG AS SFC HI PRES
BUILDS S THROUGH NEW ENG.

ANOTHER SUMMERY DAY THU W/ VRB CLDS/PARTLY SUNNY CONDS. PSBLY
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE INVOF SEA BREEZES AND SFC TROUGH FOR INCLUSION
OF AT LEAST SLGT CHC POPS...MNLY AFTN/EVE HRS. HI TEMPS FM THE
U80S-L90S.

PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS XPCD THU NGT AND FRI AS SFC WNDS TURN
NE RESULTING IN THE START OF A COOLDOWN. ONCE AGN...LO CONFIDENCE
IN COVERAGE OF PCPN...THOUGH WILL FAVOR HIGHEST POPS INLAND FM THE
CST (BY FRI AFTN). PD OF STRATUS PSBL FRI NGT INTO SAT (MRNG) AS
WNDS PICK UP FM THE NE...WHICH USHERS IN (EVENTUALLY SAT AFTN)
DRIER AIR (AND GRADUALLY CLEARING - LASTLY ACRS SRN VA/NE NC) FM
THE NE CONUS. HANGING ONTO 20-30% POPS FRI NGT INTO SAT...THOUGH
TREND IN ANY PCPN XPCD TO BE LWRG FM NE TO SW. ALSO...WILL LIKELY
BE A BREEZY START TO THE HOLIDAY WKND...ESP ERN PORTION...W/ PTNTL
GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.

LO TEMPS THU NGT FM THE U60S-70S. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L/M80S NE TO
THE U80S-ARND 90F SSW. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE M/U70S AT THE CST TO
L80S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY WX WITH SFC HI PRES IN
THE VICINITY. FOR SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...NE FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE
FA AS SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVER THE NRN MID ATLC. WITH SOME MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER SE
AREAS SAT NGT. TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60S SAT NGT AND REACH ONLY
THE LO/MID 80S SUN AFTN. FLOW BCMS ELY MON THAN SLY BY TUE AND
WED AS THE HI SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LO/MID 80S MON TO MID/UPR 80S TUE
AND WED. BULK OF PCPN IS EXPECTED TO STAY S OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD WITH ANY CHANCE OF RAIN (20%) CONFINED TO EXTREME
SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERSISTENT SHOWERS/TSTMS CONT OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY
OVER SOUTHERN VA AND NRN NC. ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH AND WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY DISSIPATED BY MIDNIGHT. EXPECT
LITTLE AFFECT TO TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR PSBLY ECG THRU THAT TIME.
LIGHT WNDS AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE STORMS MAY BRING SOME
OVERNIGHT AREAS OF FOG. HAVE ELECTED TO GENERALLY SHOW 2-3 MILES
AND FOG FOR MOST TERMINALS BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME
LOCALLY DENSE FOG DEVELOPS. KECG HAD LIFR CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING...AND THREAT FOR THIS OCCURRING THURSDAY MORNING EXISTS.

OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SCTD MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHWRS/TSTMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME STRATUS AND FOG AT SOME OF THE
TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OCEAN STRATUS LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10
KT THIS AFTN INTO TNGT WITH A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES OVER THE
AREA...WITH WAVES/SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2 FT. SIMILAR PATTERN AND
CONDS INTO THUR WITH SOME AFTN SEABREEZES DEVELOPING. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRNT THEN DROPS INTO THE AREA FRI AS HI PRES DEVELOPS OVER
THE NE STATES. PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ENUF INTO FRI NIGHT TO
MAKE SCA CONDS PSBL OVER THE WTRS...LASTING THRU SAT AND SAT NGT
AS NE FLOW PERSISTS. WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE BY SUN AS THE SFC
HI WEAKENS AND FLOW BCMS MORE OUT OF THE E THAN NE. WINDS THEN
TURN TO THE SE THEN S MON INTO TUE WITH SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JEF/WRS
MARINE...MAS



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030124
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
924 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ISOLD/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS WILL CONT THROUGH THIS EVE AS WEAKENING
TROUGH ALOFT TRACKS ACRS THE FA. XPCG TREND DOWN IN COVERAGE AFT
01-04Z/03. OTRW...VRB CLDS THROUGH TNGT. LOCALLY HEAVY RA PSBL IN
ANY STMS. LO TEMPS FM THE U60S-L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WK SFC TROUGH LINGERS OVR THE FA...ESP ERN HALF THU/THU NGT. AFTER
THAT...HI PRES ALOFT AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE NE CONUS FRI INTO SAT. WK BNDRY WILL THEN BE SETTLING S
THROUGH THE MDATLC STATES FRI AFTN INTO SAT MRNG AS SFC HI PRES
BUILDS S THROUGH NEW ENG.

ANOTHER SUMMERY DAY THU W/ VRB CLDS/PARTLY SUNNY CONDS. PSBLY
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE INVOF SEA BREEZES AND SFC TROUGH FOR INCLUSION
OF AT LEAST SLGT CHC POPS...MNLY AFTN/EVE HRS. HI TEMPS FM THE
U80S-L90S.

PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS XPCD THU NGT AND FRI AS SFC WNDS TURN
NE RESULTING IN THE START OF A COOLDOWN. ONCE AGN...LO CONFIDENCE
IN COVERAGE OF PCPN...THOUGH WILL FAVOR HIGHEST POPS INLAND FM THE
CST (BY FRI AFTN). PD OF STRATUS PSBL FRI NGT INTO SAT (MRNG) AS
WNDS PICK UP FM THE NE...WHICH USHERS IN (EVENTUALLY SAT AFTN)
DRIER AIR (AND GRADUALLY CLEARING - LASTLY ACRS SRN VA/NE NC) FM
THE NE CONUS. HANGING ONTO 20-30% POPS FRI NGT INTO SAT...THOUGH
TREND IN ANY PCPN XPCD TO BE LWRG FM NE TO SW. ALSO...WILL LIKELY
BE A BREEZY START TO THE HOLIDAY WKND...ESP ERN PORTION...W/ PTNTL
GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.

LO TEMPS THU NGT FM THE U60S-70S. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L/M80S NE TO
THE U80S-ARND 90F SSW. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE M/U70S AT THE CST TO
L80S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY WX WITH SFC HI PRES IN
THE VICINITY. FOR SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...NE FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE
FA AS SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVER THE NRN MID ATLC. WITH SOME MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER SE
AREAS SAT NGT. TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60S SAT NGT AND REACH ONLY
THE LO/MID 80S SUN AFTN. FLOW BCMS ELY MON THAN SLY BY TUE AND
WED AS THE HI SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LO/MID 80S MON TO MID/UPR 80S TUE
AND WED. BULK OF PCPN IS EXPECTED TO STAY S OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD WITH ANY CHANCE OF RAIN (20%) CONFINED TO EXTREME
SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERSISTENT SHOWERS/TSTMS CONT OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY
OVER SOUTHERN VA AND NRN NC. ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH AND WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY DISSIPATED BY MIDNIGHT. EXPECT
LITTLE AFFECT TO TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR PSBLY ECG THRU THAT TIME.
LIGHT WNDS AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE STORMS MAY BRING SOME
OVERNIGHT AREAS OF FOG. HAVE ELECTED TO GENERALLY SHOW 2-3 MILES
AND FOG FOR MOST TERMINALS BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME
LOCALLY DENSE FOG DEVELOPS. KECG HAD LIFR CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING...AND THREAT FOR THIS OCCURRING THURSDAY MORNING EXISTS.

OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SCTD MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHWRS/TSTMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME STRATUS AND FOG AT SOME OF THE
TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OCEAN STRATUS LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10
KT THIS AFTN INTO TNGT WITH A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES OVER THE
AREA...WITH WAVES/SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2 FT. SIMILAR PATTERN AND
CONDS INTO THUR WITH SOME AFTN SEABREEZES DEVELOPING. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRNT THEN DROPS INTO THE AREA FRI AS HI PRES DEVELOPS OVER
THE NE STATES. PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ENUF INTO FRI NIGHT TO
MAKE SCA CONDS PSBL OVER THE WTRS...LASTING THRU SAT AND SAT NGT
AS NE FLOW PERSISTS. WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE BY SUN AS THE SFC
HI WEAKENS AND FLOW BCMS MORE OUT OF THE E THAN NE. WINDS THEN
TURN TO THE SE THEN S MON INTO TUE WITH SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JEF/WRS
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030124
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
924 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ISOLD/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS WILL CONT THROUGH THIS EVE AS WEAKENING
TROUGH ALOFT TRACKS ACRS THE FA. XPCG TREND DOWN IN COVERAGE AFT
01-04Z/03. OTRW...VRB CLDS THROUGH TNGT. LOCALLY HEAVY RA PSBL IN
ANY STMS. LO TEMPS FM THE U60S-L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WK SFC TROUGH LINGERS OVR THE FA...ESP ERN HALF THU/THU NGT. AFTER
THAT...HI PRES ALOFT AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE NE CONUS FRI INTO SAT. WK BNDRY WILL THEN BE SETTLING S
THROUGH THE MDATLC STATES FRI AFTN INTO SAT MRNG AS SFC HI PRES
BUILDS S THROUGH NEW ENG.

ANOTHER SUMMERY DAY THU W/ VRB CLDS/PARTLY SUNNY CONDS. PSBLY
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE INVOF SEA BREEZES AND SFC TROUGH FOR INCLUSION
OF AT LEAST SLGT CHC POPS...MNLY AFTN/EVE HRS. HI TEMPS FM THE
U80S-L90S.

PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS XPCD THU NGT AND FRI AS SFC WNDS TURN
NE RESULTING IN THE START OF A COOLDOWN. ONCE AGN...LO CONFIDENCE
IN COVERAGE OF PCPN...THOUGH WILL FAVOR HIGHEST POPS INLAND FM THE
CST (BY FRI AFTN). PD OF STRATUS PSBL FRI NGT INTO SAT (MRNG) AS
WNDS PICK UP FM THE NE...WHICH USHERS IN (EVENTUALLY SAT AFTN)
DRIER AIR (AND GRADUALLY CLEARING - LASTLY ACRS SRN VA/NE NC) FM
THE NE CONUS. HANGING ONTO 20-30% POPS FRI NGT INTO SAT...THOUGH
TREND IN ANY PCPN XPCD TO BE LWRG FM NE TO SW. ALSO...WILL LIKELY
BE A BREEZY START TO THE HOLIDAY WKND...ESP ERN PORTION...W/ PTNTL
GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.

LO TEMPS THU NGT FM THE U60S-70S. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L/M80S NE TO
THE U80S-ARND 90F SSW. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE M/U70S AT THE CST TO
L80S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY WX WITH SFC HI PRES IN
THE VICINITY. FOR SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...NE FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE
FA AS SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVER THE NRN MID ATLC. WITH SOME MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER SE
AREAS SAT NGT. TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60S SAT NGT AND REACH ONLY
THE LO/MID 80S SUN AFTN. FLOW BCMS ELY MON THAN SLY BY TUE AND
WED AS THE HI SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LO/MID 80S MON TO MID/UPR 80S TUE
AND WED. BULK OF PCPN IS EXPECTED TO STAY S OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD WITH ANY CHANCE OF RAIN (20%) CONFINED TO EXTREME
SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERSISTENT SHOWERS/TSTMS CONT OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY
OVER SOUTHERN VA AND NRN NC. ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH AND WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY DISSIPATED BY MIDNIGHT. EXPECT
LITTLE AFFECT TO TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR PSBLY ECG THRU THAT TIME.
LIGHT WNDS AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE STORMS MAY BRING SOME
OVERNIGHT AREAS OF FOG. HAVE ELECTED TO GENERALLY SHOW 2-3 MILES
AND FOG FOR MOST TERMINALS BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME
LOCALLY DENSE FOG DEVELOPS. KECG HAD LIFR CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING...AND THREAT FOR THIS OCCURRING THURSDAY MORNING EXISTS.

OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SCTD MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHWRS/TSTMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME STRATUS AND FOG AT SOME OF THE
TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OCEAN STRATUS LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10
KT THIS AFTN INTO TNGT WITH A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES OVER THE
AREA...WITH WAVES/SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2 FT. SIMILAR PATTERN AND
CONDS INTO THUR WITH SOME AFTN SEABREEZES DEVELOPING. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRNT THEN DROPS INTO THE AREA FRI AS HI PRES DEVELOPS OVER
THE NE STATES. PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ENUF INTO FRI NIGHT TO
MAKE SCA CONDS PSBL OVER THE WTRS...LASTING THRU SAT AND SAT NGT
AS NE FLOW PERSISTS. WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE BY SUN AS THE SFC
HI WEAKENS AND FLOW BCMS MORE OUT OF THE E THAN NE. WINDS THEN
TURN TO THE SE THEN S MON INTO TUE WITH SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JEF/WRS
MARINE...MAS



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030124
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
924 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ISOLD/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS WILL CONT THROUGH THIS EVE AS WEAKENING
TROUGH ALOFT TRACKS ACRS THE FA. XPCG TREND DOWN IN COVERAGE AFT
01-04Z/03. OTRW...VRB CLDS THROUGH TNGT. LOCALLY HEAVY RA PSBL IN
ANY STMS. LO TEMPS FM THE U60S-L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WK SFC TROUGH LINGERS OVR THE FA...ESP ERN HALF THU/THU NGT. AFTER
THAT...HI PRES ALOFT AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE NE CONUS FRI INTO SAT. WK BNDRY WILL THEN BE SETTLING S
THROUGH THE MDATLC STATES FRI AFTN INTO SAT MRNG AS SFC HI PRES
BUILDS S THROUGH NEW ENG.

ANOTHER SUMMERY DAY THU W/ VRB CLDS/PARTLY SUNNY CONDS. PSBLY
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE INVOF SEA BREEZES AND SFC TROUGH FOR INCLUSION
OF AT LEAST SLGT CHC POPS...MNLY AFTN/EVE HRS. HI TEMPS FM THE
U80S-L90S.

PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS XPCD THU NGT AND FRI AS SFC WNDS TURN
NE RESULTING IN THE START OF A COOLDOWN. ONCE AGN...LO CONFIDENCE
IN COVERAGE OF PCPN...THOUGH WILL FAVOR HIGHEST POPS INLAND FM THE
CST (BY FRI AFTN). PD OF STRATUS PSBL FRI NGT INTO SAT (MRNG) AS
WNDS PICK UP FM THE NE...WHICH USHERS IN (EVENTUALLY SAT AFTN)
DRIER AIR (AND GRADUALLY CLEARING - LASTLY ACRS SRN VA/NE NC) FM
THE NE CONUS. HANGING ONTO 20-30% POPS FRI NGT INTO SAT...THOUGH
TREND IN ANY PCPN XPCD TO BE LWRG FM NE TO SW. ALSO...WILL LIKELY
BE A BREEZY START TO THE HOLIDAY WKND...ESP ERN PORTION...W/ PTNTL
GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.

LO TEMPS THU NGT FM THE U60S-70S. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L/M80S NE TO
THE U80S-ARND 90F SSW. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE M/U70S AT THE CST TO
L80S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY WX WITH SFC HI PRES IN
THE VICINITY. FOR SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...NE FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE
FA AS SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVER THE NRN MID ATLC. WITH SOME MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER SE
AREAS SAT NGT. TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60S SAT NGT AND REACH ONLY
THE LO/MID 80S SUN AFTN. FLOW BCMS ELY MON THAN SLY BY TUE AND
WED AS THE HI SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LO/MID 80S MON TO MID/UPR 80S TUE
AND WED. BULK OF PCPN IS EXPECTED TO STAY S OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD WITH ANY CHANCE OF RAIN (20%) CONFINED TO EXTREME
SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERSISTENT SHOWERS/TSTMS CONT OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY
OVER SOUTHERN VA AND NRN NC. ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH AND WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY DISSIPATED BY MIDNIGHT. EXPECT
LITTLE AFFECT TO TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR PSBLY ECG THRU THAT TIME.
LIGHT WNDS AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE STORMS MAY BRING SOME
OVERNIGHT AREAS OF FOG. HAVE ELECTED TO GENERALLY SHOW 2-3 MILES
AND FOG FOR MOST TERMINALS BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME
LOCALLY DENSE FOG DEVELOPS. KECG HAD LIFR CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING...AND THREAT FOR THIS OCCURRING THURSDAY MORNING EXISTS.

OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SCTD MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHWRS/TSTMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME STRATUS AND FOG AT SOME OF THE
TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OCEAN STRATUS LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10
KT THIS AFTN INTO TNGT WITH A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES OVER THE
AREA...WITH WAVES/SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2 FT. SIMILAR PATTERN AND
CONDS INTO THUR WITH SOME AFTN SEABREEZES DEVELOPING. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRNT THEN DROPS INTO THE AREA FRI AS HI PRES DEVELOPS OVER
THE NE STATES. PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ENUF INTO FRI NIGHT TO
MAKE SCA CONDS PSBL OVER THE WTRS...LASTING THRU SAT AND SAT NGT
AS NE FLOW PERSISTS. WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE BY SUN AS THE SFC
HI WEAKENS AND FLOW BCMS MORE OUT OF THE E THAN NE. WINDS THEN
TURN TO THE SE THEN S MON INTO TUE WITH SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JEF/WRS
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 030115
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
915 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOW EXITING THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE
FORECAST AREA IS DRY. WILL CARRY A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT FOR
NOW...BUT THERE IS ANOTHER MID LEVEL FEATURE (BETTER SEEN IN
SATELLITE DATA THAN MODEL DATA) ENTERING NORTHERN PA. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS DISSIPATING. BUT WORTH
NOTING SOME BLIPS OF PRECIPITATION DO SHOW UP IN SOME OF THE MODEL
DATA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SKIES HAVE CLEARED BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...HASTENING RADIATIONAL
COOLING OF ALREADY RAIN-LOWERED TEMPS. ALREADY SEEING SOME VSBY
DROPS IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND CENTRAL MD. ODDS ARE WE WILL
HAVE AT LEAST SOME DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT. QUESTION IS HOW
WIDESPREAD WILL IT BE (ESPECIALLY SINCE RAIN WAS NOT
UNIFORM)...HOW LOW VSBYS WILL DROP...AND IF UPSTREAM CLOUDS WILL
PLAY A ROLE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TRENDS FOR NOW.

LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR THE DEW POINTS IN MID TO UPPER 60S SEEM
REASONABLE...WITH LOWER 70S IN URBAN/COASTAL LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
H5 RDG AXIS WL RESIDE ACRS THE MS VLY THU...WHICH PLACES CWFA IN
THE NW FLOW. HWVR...THE AMS WL BE JUST AS WARM...HUMID...AND
UNSTBL AS TDA. WUD XPCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSRA TO DVLP ALNG THE
MTNS DURING THE AFTN. THERES CONSISTENT MDL EVIDENCE THAT THESE
STORMS WL EMERGE FM THE MTNS AND TRACK INTO THE CSTL PLAIN BY
EVNG. TIMING SPECIFIC VORTS PROBLEMATIC AT THIS POINT...BUT WUD
THINK THAT ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WL CLEAR CWFA BEFORE DAWN.

HVNT MADE ANY BIG ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...AS PERSISTENCE SHUD PROVE
TO BE A GOOD FCSTG MODEL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE DURING THE LONG TERM WILL BE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PROVIDING
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. ATTM...KEPT POPS AT CHANCE
EVERYWHERE...AS NOT ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. WHILE
CAPE WILL BE LOW/MODERATE...GENERALLY AOA 1000 J/KG...EBS NEARLY
NONEXISTENT...SO EXPECT PULSE-TYPE ACTIVITY AND HEAVY RAINERS AS
INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVE VERY SLOWLY. CLOUD COVER...ONSHORE FLOW...AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD WORK IN CONCERT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES AOA NORMAL. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD DWINDLE QUICKLY
AFTER DUSK FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF INSTABILITY.

VERY LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIABILITY IN SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY AND
REMAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH WARM MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...LAPSE RATES WILL BE VERY POOR...CONSEQUENTLY CHANCES
FOR PRECIP DURING THIS PERIOD APPEAR VERY LOW AND GENERALLY WOULD
ONLY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE WEST.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE U50S BY SUNDAY. BY
MONDAY...TEMPERATURES START CREEPING BACK ABOVE NORMAL AND BY
TUESDAY SOME AREAS COULD BE BACK INTO L90S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. MOST OF
THE TAF SITES MISSED RAINFALL TODAY...PUTTING THE EXTENT OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN QUESTION. ENOUGH OF A GUIDANCE SIGNAL AT CHO TO
INTRODUCE IFR THERE. EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS TO TAFS AS TRENDS ARE
MONITORED OVERNIGHT.

A SIMILAR FORECAST FOR THURSDAY...WITH VFR AND LIGHT WINDS UNTIL
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE SEVERAL HOURS LATER THAN TODAY...AND COVERAGE PERHAPS LESS
EXTENSIVE. BRIEF/LOCALIZED FLIGHT IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

SUB-VFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. NW
FLOW THRU THU WILL STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT
TSRA PSBL LATE DAY INTO THE EVNG...MOSTLY STAYING W OF THE MARINE
AREA BUT THE PTMC RIVER WL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE HIEST POTL RGN.

WINDS EXPECTED NEAR SCA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO BRING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SCA
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS/MSE
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...ADS/MSE
MARINE...ADS/MSE/HTS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 030115
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
915 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOW EXITING THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE
FORECAST AREA IS DRY. WILL CARRY A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT FOR
NOW...BUT THERE IS ANOTHER MID LEVEL FEATURE (BETTER SEEN IN
SATELLITE DATA THAN MODEL DATA) ENTERING NORTHERN PA. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS DISSIPATING. BUT WORTH
NOTING SOME BLIPS OF PRECIPITATION DO SHOW UP IN SOME OF THE MODEL
DATA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SKIES HAVE CLEARED BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...HASTENING RADIATIONAL
COOLING OF ALREADY RAIN-LOWERED TEMPS. ALREADY SEEING SOME VSBY
DROPS IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND CENTRAL MD. ODDS ARE WE WILL
HAVE AT LEAST SOME DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT. QUESTION IS HOW
WIDESPREAD WILL IT BE (ESPECIALLY SINCE RAIN WAS NOT
UNIFORM)...HOW LOW VSBYS WILL DROP...AND IF UPSTREAM CLOUDS WILL
PLAY A ROLE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TRENDS FOR NOW.

LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR THE DEW POINTS IN MID TO UPPER 60S SEEM
REASONABLE...WITH LOWER 70S IN URBAN/COASTAL LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
H5 RDG AXIS WL RESIDE ACRS THE MS VLY THU...WHICH PLACES CWFA IN
THE NW FLOW. HWVR...THE AMS WL BE JUST AS WARM...HUMID...AND
UNSTBL AS TDA. WUD XPCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSRA TO DVLP ALNG THE
MTNS DURING THE AFTN. THERES CONSISTENT MDL EVIDENCE THAT THESE
STORMS WL EMERGE FM THE MTNS AND TRACK INTO THE CSTL PLAIN BY
EVNG. TIMING SPECIFIC VORTS PROBLEMATIC AT THIS POINT...BUT WUD
THINK THAT ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WL CLEAR CWFA BEFORE DAWN.

HVNT MADE ANY BIG ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...AS PERSISTENCE SHUD PROVE
TO BE A GOOD FCSTG MODEL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE DURING THE LONG TERM WILL BE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PROVIDING
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. ATTM...KEPT POPS AT CHANCE
EVERYWHERE...AS NOT ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. WHILE
CAPE WILL BE LOW/MODERATE...GENERALLY AOA 1000 J/KG...EBS NEARLY
NONEXISTENT...SO EXPECT PULSE-TYPE ACTIVITY AND HEAVY RAINERS AS
INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVE VERY SLOWLY. CLOUD COVER...ONSHORE FLOW...AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD WORK IN CONCERT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES AOA NORMAL. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD DWINDLE QUICKLY
AFTER DUSK FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF INSTABILITY.

VERY LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIABILITY IN SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY AND
REMAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH WARM MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...LAPSE RATES WILL BE VERY POOR...CONSEQUENTLY CHANCES
FOR PRECIP DURING THIS PERIOD APPEAR VERY LOW AND GENERALLY WOULD
ONLY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE WEST.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE U50S BY SUNDAY. BY
MONDAY...TEMPERATURES START CREEPING BACK ABOVE NORMAL AND BY
TUESDAY SOME AREAS COULD BE BACK INTO L90S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. MOST OF
THE TAF SITES MISSED RAINFALL TODAY...PUTTING THE EXTENT OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN QUESTION. ENOUGH OF A GUIDANCE SIGNAL AT CHO TO
INTRODUCE IFR THERE. EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS TO TAFS AS TRENDS ARE
MONITORED OVERNIGHT.

A SIMILAR FORECAST FOR THURSDAY...WITH VFR AND LIGHT WINDS UNTIL
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE SEVERAL HOURS LATER THAN TODAY...AND COVERAGE PERHAPS LESS
EXTENSIVE. BRIEF/LOCALIZED FLIGHT IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

SUB-VFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. NW
FLOW THRU THU WILL STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT
TSRA PSBL LATE DAY INTO THE EVNG...MOSTLY STAYING W OF THE MARINE
AREA BUT THE PTMC RIVER WL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE HIEST POTL RGN.

WINDS EXPECTED NEAR SCA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO BRING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SCA
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS/MSE
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...ADS/MSE
MARINE...ADS/MSE/HTS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 030115
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
915 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOW EXITING THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE
FORECAST AREA IS DRY. WILL CARRY A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT FOR
NOW...BUT THERE IS ANOTHER MID LEVEL FEATURE (BETTER SEEN IN
SATELLITE DATA THAN MODEL DATA) ENTERING NORTHERN PA. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS DISSIPATING. BUT WORTH
NOTING SOME BLIPS OF PRECIPITATION DO SHOW UP IN SOME OF THE MODEL
DATA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SKIES HAVE CLEARED BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...HASTENING RADIATIONAL
COOLING OF ALREADY RAIN-LOWERED TEMPS. ALREADY SEEING SOME VSBY
DROPS IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND CENTRAL MD. ODDS ARE WE WILL
HAVE AT LEAST SOME DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT. QUESTION IS HOW
WIDESPREAD WILL IT BE (ESPECIALLY SINCE RAIN WAS NOT
UNIFORM)...HOW LOW VSBYS WILL DROP...AND IF UPSTREAM CLOUDS WILL
PLAY A ROLE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TRENDS FOR NOW.

LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR THE DEW POINTS IN MID TO UPPER 60S SEEM
REASONABLE...WITH LOWER 70S IN URBAN/COASTAL LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
H5 RDG AXIS WL RESIDE ACRS THE MS VLY THU...WHICH PLACES CWFA IN
THE NW FLOW. HWVR...THE AMS WL BE JUST AS WARM...HUMID...AND
UNSTBL AS TDA. WUD XPCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSRA TO DVLP ALNG THE
MTNS DURING THE AFTN. THERES CONSISTENT MDL EVIDENCE THAT THESE
STORMS WL EMERGE FM THE MTNS AND TRACK INTO THE CSTL PLAIN BY
EVNG. TIMING SPECIFIC VORTS PROBLEMATIC AT THIS POINT...BUT WUD
THINK THAT ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WL CLEAR CWFA BEFORE DAWN.

HVNT MADE ANY BIG ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...AS PERSISTENCE SHUD PROVE
TO BE A GOOD FCSTG MODEL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE DURING THE LONG TERM WILL BE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PROVIDING
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. ATTM...KEPT POPS AT CHANCE
EVERYWHERE...AS NOT ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. WHILE
CAPE WILL BE LOW/MODERATE...GENERALLY AOA 1000 J/KG...EBS NEARLY
NONEXISTENT...SO EXPECT PULSE-TYPE ACTIVITY AND HEAVY RAINERS AS
INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVE VERY SLOWLY. CLOUD COVER...ONSHORE FLOW...AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD WORK IN CONCERT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES AOA NORMAL. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD DWINDLE QUICKLY
AFTER DUSK FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF INSTABILITY.

VERY LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIABILITY IN SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY AND
REMAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH WARM MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...LAPSE RATES WILL BE VERY POOR...CONSEQUENTLY CHANCES
FOR PRECIP DURING THIS PERIOD APPEAR VERY LOW AND GENERALLY WOULD
ONLY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE WEST.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE U50S BY SUNDAY. BY
MONDAY...TEMPERATURES START CREEPING BACK ABOVE NORMAL AND BY
TUESDAY SOME AREAS COULD BE BACK INTO L90S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. MOST OF
THE TAF SITES MISSED RAINFALL TODAY...PUTTING THE EXTENT OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN QUESTION. ENOUGH OF A GUIDANCE SIGNAL AT CHO TO
INTRODUCE IFR THERE. EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS TO TAFS AS TRENDS ARE
MONITORED OVERNIGHT.

A SIMILAR FORECAST FOR THURSDAY...WITH VFR AND LIGHT WINDS UNTIL
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE SEVERAL HOURS LATER THAN TODAY...AND COVERAGE PERHAPS LESS
EXTENSIVE. BRIEF/LOCALIZED FLIGHT IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

SUB-VFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. NW
FLOW THRU THU WILL STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT
TSRA PSBL LATE DAY INTO THE EVNG...MOSTLY STAYING W OF THE MARINE
AREA BUT THE PTMC RIVER WL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE HIEST POTL RGN.

WINDS EXPECTED NEAR SCA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO BRING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SCA
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS/MSE
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...ADS/MSE
MARINE...ADS/MSE/HTS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 030115
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
915 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOW EXITING THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE
FORECAST AREA IS DRY. WILL CARRY A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT FOR
NOW...BUT THERE IS ANOTHER MID LEVEL FEATURE (BETTER SEEN IN
SATELLITE DATA THAN MODEL DATA) ENTERING NORTHERN PA. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS DISSIPATING. BUT WORTH
NOTING SOME BLIPS OF PRECIPITATION DO SHOW UP IN SOME OF THE MODEL
DATA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SKIES HAVE CLEARED BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...HASTENING RADIATIONAL
COOLING OF ALREADY RAIN-LOWERED TEMPS. ALREADY SEEING SOME VSBY
DROPS IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND CENTRAL MD. ODDS ARE WE WILL
HAVE AT LEAST SOME DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT. QUESTION IS HOW
WIDESPREAD WILL IT BE (ESPECIALLY SINCE RAIN WAS NOT
UNIFORM)...HOW LOW VSBYS WILL DROP...AND IF UPSTREAM CLOUDS WILL
PLAY A ROLE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TRENDS FOR NOW.

LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR THE DEW POINTS IN MID TO UPPER 60S SEEM
REASONABLE...WITH LOWER 70S IN URBAN/COASTAL LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
H5 RDG AXIS WL RESIDE ACRS THE MS VLY THU...WHICH PLACES CWFA IN
THE NW FLOW. HWVR...THE AMS WL BE JUST AS WARM...HUMID...AND
UNSTBL AS TDA. WUD XPCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSRA TO DVLP ALNG THE
MTNS DURING THE AFTN. THERES CONSISTENT MDL EVIDENCE THAT THESE
STORMS WL EMERGE FM THE MTNS AND TRACK INTO THE CSTL PLAIN BY
EVNG. TIMING SPECIFIC VORTS PROBLEMATIC AT THIS POINT...BUT WUD
THINK THAT ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WL CLEAR CWFA BEFORE DAWN.

HVNT MADE ANY BIG ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...AS PERSISTENCE SHUD PROVE
TO BE A GOOD FCSTG MODEL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE DURING THE LONG TERM WILL BE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PROVIDING
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. ATTM...KEPT POPS AT CHANCE
EVERYWHERE...AS NOT ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. WHILE
CAPE WILL BE LOW/MODERATE...GENERALLY AOA 1000 J/KG...EBS NEARLY
NONEXISTENT...SO EXPECT PULSE-TYPE ACTIVITY AND HEAVY RAINERS AS
INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVE VERY SLOWLY. CLOUD COVER...ONSHORE FLOW...AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD WORK IN CONCERT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES AOA NORMAL. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD DWINDLE QUICKLY
AFTER DUSK FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF INSTABILITY.

VERY LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIABILITY IN SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY AND
REMAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH WARM MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...LAPSE RATES WILL BE VERY POOR...CONSEQUENTLY CHANCES
FOR PRECIP DURING THIS PERIOD APPEAR VERY LOW AND GENERALLY WOULD
ONLY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE WEST.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE U50S BY SUNDAY. BY
MONDAY...TEMPERATURES START CREEPING BACK ABOVE NORMAL AND BY
TUESDAY SOME AREAS COULD BE BACK INTO L90S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. MOST OF
THE TAF SITES MISSED RAINFALL TODAY...PUTTING THE EXTENT OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN QUESTION. ENOUGH OF A GUIDANCE SIGNAL AT CHO TO
INTRODUCE IFR THERE. EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS TO TAFS AS TRENDS ARE
MONITORED OVERNIGHT.

A SIMILAR FORECAST FOR THURSDAY...WITH VFR AND LIGHT WINDS UNTIL
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE SEVERAL HOURS LATER THAN TODAY...AND COVERAGE PERHAPS LESS
EXTENSIVE. BRIEF/LOCALIZED FLIGHT IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

SUB-VFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. NW
FLOW THRU THU WILL STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT
TSRA PSBL LATE DAY INTO THE EVNG...MOSTLY STAYING W OF THE MARINE
AREA BUT THE PTMC RIVER WL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE HIEST POTL RGN.

WINDS EXPECTED NEAR SCA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO BRING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SCA
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS/MSE
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...ADS/MSE
MARINE...ADS/MSE/HTS



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030109
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
909 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ONE OR TWO SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. SUBSIDENCE AND
RIDGING BEHIND THIS AFTERNOONS SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY
WEATHER OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE LATEST TWEAKED SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...ANOTHER
APPROACHING WEAK SHORTWAVE SHOULD RETURN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO THE REGION BY AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS ARE
REACHED. THE PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY END THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
FRIDAY FOR AREAS FROM PIT SOUTH...THOUGH BUILDING UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE USING GFS MOS AND SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AT SOME
LOCATIONS SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. WIDELY SCT TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030109
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
909 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ONE OR TWO SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. SUBSIDENCE AND
RIDGING BEHIND THIS AFTERNOONS SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY
WEATHER OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE LATEST TWEAKED SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...ANOTHER
APPROACHING WEAK SHORTWAVE SHOULD RETURN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO THE REGION BY AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS ARE
REACHED. THE PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY END THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
FRIDAY FOR AREAS FROM PIT SOUTH...THOUGH BUILDING UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE USING GFS MOS AND SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AT SOME
LOCATIONS SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. WIDELY SCT TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030109
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
909 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ONE OR TWO SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. SUBSIDENCE AND
RIDGING BEHIND THIS AFTERNOONS SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY
WEATHER OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE LATEST TWEAKED SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...ANOTHER
APPROACHING WEAK SHORTWAVE SHOULD RETURN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO THE REGION BY AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS ARE
REACHED. THE PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY END THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
FRIDAY FOR AREAS FROM PIT SOUTH...THOUGH BUILDING UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE USING GFS MOS AND SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AT SOME
LOCATIONS SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. WIDELY SCT TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030109
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
909 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ONE OR TWO SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. SUBSIDENCE AND
RIDGING BEHIND THIS AFTERNOONS SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY
WEATHER OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE LATEST TWEAKED SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...ANOTHER
APPROACHING WEAK SHORTWAVE SHOULD RETURN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO THE REGION BY AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS ARE
REACHED. THE PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY END THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
FRIDAY FOR AREAS FROM PIT SOUTH...THOUGH BUILDING UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE USING GFS MOS AND SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AT SOME
LOCATIONS SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. WIDELY SCT TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030109
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
909 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ONE OR TWO SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. SUBSIDENCE AND
RIDGING BEHIND THIS AFTERNOONS SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY
WEATHER OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE LATEST TWEAKED SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...ANOTHER
APPROACHING WEAK SHORTWAVE SHOULD RETURN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO THE REGION BY AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS ARE
REACHED. THE PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY END THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
FRIDAY FOR AREAS FROM PIT SOUTH...THOUGH BUILDING UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE USING GFS MOS AND SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AT SOME
LOCATIONS SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. WIDELY SCT TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030109
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
909 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ONE OR TWO SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. SUBSIDENCE AND
RIDGING BEHIND THIS AFTERNOONS SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY
WEATHER OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE LATEST TWEAKED SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...ANOTHER
APPROACHING WEAK SHORTWAVE SHOULD RETURN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO THE REGION BY AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS ARE
REACHED. THE PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY END THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
FRIDAY FOR AREAS FROM PIT SOUTH...THOUGH BUILDING UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE USING GFS MOS AND SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AT SOME
LOCATIONS SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. WIDELY SCT TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030109
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
909 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ONE OR TWO SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. SUBSIDENCE AND
RIDGING BEHIND THIS AFTERNOONS SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY
WEATHER OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE LATEST TWEAKED SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...ANOTHER
APPROACHING WEAK SHORTWAVE SHOULD RETURN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO THE REGION BY AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS ARE
REACHED. THE PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY END THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
FRIDAY FOR AREAS FROM PIT SOUTH...THOUGH BUILDING UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE USING GFS MOS AND SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AT SOME
LOCATIONS SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. WIDELY SCT TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030109
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
909 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ONE OR TWO SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. SUBSIDENCE AND
RIDGING BEHIND THIS AFTERNOONS SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY
WEATHER OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE LATEST TWEAKED SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...ANOTHER
APPROACHING WEAK SHORTWAVE SHOULD RETURN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO THE REGION BY AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS ARE
REACHED. THE PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY END THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
FRIDAY FOR AREAS FROM PIT SOUTH...THOUGH BUILDING UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE USING GFS MOS AND SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AT SOME
LOCATIONS SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. WIDELY SCT TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030109
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
909 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ONE OR TWO SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. SUBSIDENCE AND
RIDGING BEHIND THIS AFTERNOONS SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY
WEATHER OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE LATEST TWEAKED SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...ANOTHER
APPROACHING WEAK SHORTWAVE SHOULD RETURN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO THE REGION BY AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS ARE
REACHED. THE PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY END THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
FRIDAY FOR AREAS FROM PIT SOUTH...THOUGH BUILDING UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE USING GFS MOS AND SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AT SOME
LOCATIONS SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. WIDELY SCT TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030109
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
909 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ONE OR TWO SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. SUBSIDENCE AND
RIDGING BEHIND THIS AFTERNOONS SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY
WEATHER OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE LATEST TWEAKED SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...ANOTHER
APPROACHING WEAK SHORTWAVE SHOULD RETURN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO THE REGION BY AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS ARE
REACHED. THE PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY END THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
FRIDAY FOR AREAS FROM PIT SOUTH...THOUGH BUILDING UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE USING GFS MOS AND SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AT SOME
LOCATIONS SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. WIDELY SCT TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 022346
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
744 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TWO BIGGEST CHANGES TO FORECAST WERE TO UPDATE SKY FORECAST BASED
ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND DRASTICALLY REDUCE TEMPERATURES
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES DUE TO
EFFECTS FROM EARLIER SHOWERS. REST OF FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN
GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

A SHORTWAVE ADVANCING THROUGH SW PA AND NORTHERN WV SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING UNTIL THE WAVE EXITS...THOUGH NORMALIZED
CAPE INDICATES ASCENT SHOULD BE WEAK. SUBSIDENCE AND RIDGING
BEHIND THE WAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER LATER TONIGHT. LOWS
SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE
LATEST TWEAKED SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...ANOTHER
APPROACHING WEAK SHORTWAVE SHOULD RETURN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO THE REGION BY AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS ARE
REACHED. THE PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY END THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
FRIDAY FOR AREAS FROM PIT SOUTH...THOUGH BUILDING UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE USING GFS MOS AND SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR CAN BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AT SOME LOCATIONS SHORTLY BEFORE
SUNRISE. WIDELY SCT TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 022346
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
744 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TWO BIGGEST CHANGES TO FORECAST WERE TO UPDATE SKY FORECAST BASED
ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND DRASTICALLY REDUCE TEMPERATURES
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES DUE TO
EFFECTS FROM EARLIER SHOWERS. REST OF FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN
GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

A SHORTWAVE ADVANCING THROUGH SW PA AND NORTHERN WV SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING UNTIL THE WAVE EXITS...THOUGH NORMALIZED
CAPE INDICATES ASCENT SHOULD BE WEAK. SUBSIDENCE AND RIDGING
BEHIND THE WAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER LATER TONIGHT. LOWS
SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE
LATEST TWEAKED SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...ANOTHER
APPROACHING WEAK SHORTWAVE SHOULD RETURN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO THE REGION BY AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS ARE
REACHED. THE PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY END THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
FRIDAY FOR AREAS FROM PIT SOUTH...THOUGH BUILDING UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE USING GFS MOS AND SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR CAN BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AT SOME LOCATIONS SHORTLY BEFORE
SUNRISE. WIDELY SCT TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 022346
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
744 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TWO BIGGEST CHANGES TO FORECAST WERE TO UPDATE SKY FORECAST BASED
ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND DRASTICALLY REDUCE TEMPERATURES
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES DUE TO
EFFECTS FROM EARLIER SHOWERS. REST OF FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN
GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

A SHORTWAVE ADVANCING THROUGH SW PA AND NORTHERN WV SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING UNTIL THE WAVE EXITS...THOUGH NORMALIZED
CAPE INDICATES ASCENT SHOULD BE WEAK. SUBSIDENCE AND RIDGING
BEHIND THE WAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER LATER TONIGHT. LOWS
SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE
LATEST TWEAKED SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...ANOTHER
APPROACHING WEAK SHORTWAVE SHOULD RETURN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO THE REGION BY AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS ARE
REACHED. THE PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY END THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
FRIDAY FOR AREAS FROM PIT SOUTH...THOUGH BUILDING UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE USING GFS MOS AND SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR CAN BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AT SOME LOCATIONS SHORTLY BEFORE
SUNRISE. WIDELY SCT TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 022346
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
744 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TWO BIGGEST CHANGES TO FORECAST WERE TO UPDATE SKY FORECAST BASED
ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND DRASTICALLY REDUCE TEMPERATURES
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES DUE TO
EFFECTS FROM EARLIER SHOWERS. REST OF FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN
GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

A SHORTWAVE ADVANCING THROUGH SW PA AND NORTHERN WV SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING UNTIL THE WAVE EXITS...THOUGH NORMALIZED
CAPE INDICATES ASCENT SHOULD BE WEAK. SUBSIDENCE AND RIDGING
BEHIND THE WAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER LATER TONIGHT. LOWS
SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE
LATEST TWEAKED SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...ANOTHER
APPROACHING WEAK SHORTWAVE SHOULD RETURN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO THE REGION BY AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS ARE
REACHED. THE PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY END THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
FRIDAY FOR AREAS FROM PIT SOUTH...THOUGH BUILDING UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE USING GFS MOS AND SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR CAN BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AT SOME LOCATIONS SHORTLY BEFORE
SUNRISE. WIDELY SCT TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 022346
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
744 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TWO BIGGEST CHANGES TO FORECAST WERE TO UPDATE SKY FORECAST BASED
ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND DRASTICALLY REDUCE TEMPERATURES
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES DUE TO
EFFECTS FROM EARLIER SHOWERS. REST OF FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN
GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

A SHORTWAVE ADVANCING THROUGH SW PA AND NORTHERN WV SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING UNTIL THE WAVE EXITS...THOUGH NORMALIZED
CAPE INDICATES ASCENT SHOULD BE WEAK. SUBSIDENCE AND RIDGING
BEHIND THE WAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER LATER TONIGHT. LOWS
SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE
LATEST TWEAKED SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...ANOTHER
APPROACHING WEAK SHORTWAVE SHOULD RETURN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO THE REGION BY AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS ARE
REACHED. THE PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY END THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
FRIDAY FOR AREAS FROM PIT SOUTH...THOUGH BUILDING UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE USING GFS MOS AND SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR CAN BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AT SOME LOCATIONS SHORTLY BEFORE
SUNRISE. WIDELY SCT TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 022346
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
744 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TWO BIGGEST CHANGES TO FORECAST WERE TO UPDATE SKY FORECAST BASED
ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND DRASTICALLY REDUCE TEMPERATURES
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES DUE TO
EFFECTS FROM EARLIER SHOWERS. REST OF FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN
GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

A SHORTWAVE ADVANCING THROUGH SW PA AND NORTHERN WV SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING UNTIL THE WAVE EXITS...THOUGH NORMALIZED
CAPE INDICATES ASCENT SHOULD BE WEAK. SUBSIDENCE AND RIDGING
BEHIND THE WAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER LATER TONIGHT. LOWS
SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE
LATEST TWEAKED SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...ANOTHER
APPROACHING WEAK SHORTWAVE SHOULD RETURN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO THE REGION BY AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS ARE
REACHED. THE PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY END THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
FRIDAY FOR AREAS FROM PIT SOUTH...THOUGH BUILDING UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE USING GFS MOS AND SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR CAN BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AT SOME LOCATIONS SHORTLY BEFORE
SUNRISE. WIDELY SCT TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 022142
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
542 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TWO BIGGEST CHANGES TO FORECAST WERE TO UPDATE SKY FORECAST BASED
ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND DRASTICALLY REDUCE TEMPERATURES
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES DUE TO
EFFECTS FROM EARLIER SHOWERS. REST OF FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN
GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

A SHORTWAVE ADVANCING THROUGH SW PA AND NORTHERN WV SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING UNTIL THE WAVE EXITS...THOUGH NORMALIZED
CAPE INDICATES ASCENT SHOULD BE WEAK. SUBSIDENCE AND RIDGING
BEHIND THE WAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER LATER TONIGHT. LOWS
SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE
LATEST TWEAKED SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...ANOTHER
APPROACHING WEAK SHORTWAVE SHOULD RETURN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO THE REGION BY AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS ARE
REACHED. THE PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY END THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
FRIDAY FOR AREAS FROM PIT SOUTH...THOUGH BUILDING UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE USING GFS MOS AND SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION AND PERI-DAWN FOG.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021944
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
344 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ISOLD/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS WILL CONT THROUGH THIS EVE AS WEAKENING
TROUGH ALOFT TRACKS ACRS THE FA. XPCG TREND DOWN IN COVERAGE AFT
01-04Z/03. OTRW...VRB CLDS THROUGH TNGT. LOCALLY HEAVY RA PSBL IN
ANY STMS. LO TEMPS FM THE U60S-L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WK SFC TROUGH LINGERS OVR THE FA...ESP ERN HALF THU/THU NGT. AFTER
THAT...HI PRES ALOFT AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE NE CONUS FRI INTO SAT. WK BNDRY WILL THEN BE SETTLING S
THROUGH THE MDATLC STATES FRI AFTN INTO SAT MRNG AS SFC HI PRES
BUILDS S THROUGH NEW ENG.

ANOTHER SUMMERY DAY THU W/ VRB CLDS/PARTLY SUNNY CONDS. PSBLY
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE INVOF SEA BREEZES AND SFC TROUGH FOR INCLUSION
OF AT LEAST SLGT CHC POPS...MNLY AFTN/EVE HRS. HI TEMPS FM THE
U80S-L90S.

PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS XPCD THU NGT AND FRI AS SFC WNDS TURN
NE RESULTING IN THE START OF A COOLDOWN. ONCE AGN...LO CONFIDENCE
IN COVERAGE OF PCPN...THOUGH WILL FAVOR HIGHEST POPS INLAND FM THE
CST (BY FRI AFTN). PD OF STRATUS PSBL FRI NGT INTO SAT (MRNG) AS
WNDS PICK UP FM THE NE...WHICH USHERS IN (EVENTUALLY SAT AFTN)
DRIER AIR (AND GRADUALLY CLEARING - LASTLY ACRS SRN VA/NE NC) FM
THE NE CONUS. HANGING ONTO 20-30% POPS FRI NGT INTO SAT...THOUGH
TREND IN ANY PCPN XPCD TO BE LWRG FM NE TO SW. ALSO...WILL LIKELY
BE A BREEZY START TO THE HOLIDAY WKND...ESP ERN PORTION...W/ PTNTL
GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.

LO TEMPS THU NGT FM THE U60S-70S. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L/M80S NE TO
THE U80S-ARND 90F SSW. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE M/U70S AT THE CST TO
L80S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY WX WITH SFC HI PRES IN
THE VICINITY. FOR SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...NE FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE
FA AS SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVER THE NRN MID ATLC. WITH SOME MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER SE
AREAS SAT NGT. TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60S SAT NGT AND REACH ONLY
THE LO/MID 80S SUN AFTN. FLOW BCMS ELY MON THAN SLY BY TUE AND
WED AS THE HI SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LO/MID 80S MON TO MID/UPR 80S TUE
AND WED. BULK OF PCPN IS EXPECTED TO STAY S OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD WITH ANY CHANCE OF RAIN (20%) CONFINED TO EXTREME
SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. TSTMS IN THE
VICINITY OF KRIC SHOULD MOVE SEWD AWAY FROM THE TERMINAL BY
1830Z. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
22Z TO 01Z TIME FRAME...PER HI-RES MODELS. HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 18Z TAFS...AS THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNDERCERTAINTY REGARDING EXTENT OF LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHWRS/TSTMS. HAVE INSERTED SOME LIGHT FOG/HAZE
INTO KRIC/KECG/KSBY TAFS AS AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER STAGNANT...BUT
DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG TO
BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THAN HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY. KECG
HAD LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...AND THREAT FOR THIS OCCURRING
THURSDAY MORNING EXISTS.

OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SCTD MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHWRS/TSTMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME STRATUS AND FOG AT SOME OF THE
TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OCEAN STRATUS LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10
KT THIS AFTN INTO TNGT WITH A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES OVER THE
AREA...WITH WAVES/SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2 FT. SIMILAR PATTERN AND
CONDS INTO THUR WITH SOME AFTN SEABREEZES DEVELOPING. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRNT THEN DROPS INTO THE AREA FRI AS HI PRES DEVELOPS OVER
THE NE STATES. PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ENUF INTO FRI NIGHT TO
MAKE SCA CONDS PSBL OVER THE WTRS...LASTING THRU SAT AND SAT NGT
AS NE FLOW PERSISTS. WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE BY SUN AS THE SFC
HI WEAKENS AND FLOW BCMS MORE OUT OF THE E THAN NE. WINDS THEN
TURN TO THE SE THEN S MON INTO TUE WITH SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...MAS



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021944
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
344 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ISOLD/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS WILL CONT THROUGH THIS EVE AS WEAKENING
TROUGH ALOFT TRACKS ACRS THE FA. XPCG TREND DOWN IN COVERAGE AFT
01-04Z/03. OTRW...VRB CLDS THROUGH TNGT. LOCALLY HEAVY RA PSBL IN
ANY STMS. LO TEMPS FM THE U60S-L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WK SFC TROUGH LINGERS OVR THE FA...ESP ERN HALF THU/THU NGT. AFTER
THAT...HI PRES ALOFT AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE NE CONUS FRI INTO SAT. WK BNDRY WILL THEN BE SETTLING S
THROUGH THE MDATLC STATES FRI AFTN INTO SAT MRNG AS SFC HI PRES
BUILDS S THROUGH NEW ENG.

ANOTHER SUMMERY DAY THU W/ VRB CLDS/PARTLY SUNNY CONDS. PSBLY
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE INVOF SEA BREEZES AND SFC TROUGH FOR INCLUSION
OF AT LEAST SLGT CHC POPS...MNLY AFTN/EVE HRS. HI TEMPS FM THE
U80S-L90S.

PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS XPCD THU NGT AND FRI AS SFC WNDS TURN
NE RESULTING IN THE START OF A COOLDOWN. ONCE AGN...LO CONFIDENCE
IN COVERAGE OF PCPN...THOUGH WILL FAVOR HIGHEST POPS INLAND FM THE
CST (BY FRI AFTN). PD OF STRATUS PSBL FRI NGT INTO SAT (MRNG) AS
WNDS PICK UP FM THE NE...WHICH USHERS IN (EVENTUALLY SAT AFTN)
DRIER AIR (AND GRADUALLY CLEARING - LASTLY ACRS SRN VA/NE NC) FM
THE NE CONUS. HANGING ONTO 20-30% POPS FRI NGT INTO SAT...THOUGH
TREND IN ANY PCPN XPCD TO BE LWRG FM NE TO SW. ALSO...WILL LIKELY
BE A BREEZY START TO THE HOLIDAY WKND...ESP ERN PORTION...W/ PTNTL
GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.

LO TEMPS THU NGT FM THE U60S-70S. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L/M80S NE TO
THE U80S-ARND 90F SSW. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE M/U70S AT THE CST TO
L80S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY WX WITH SFC HI PRES IN
THE VICINITY. FOR SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...NE FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE
FA AS SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVER THE NRN MID ATLC. WITH SOME MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER SE
AREAS SAT NGT. TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60S SAT NGT AND REACH ONLY
THE LO/MID 80S SUN AFTN. FLOW BCMS ELY MON THAN SLY BY TUE AND
WED AS THE HI SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LO/MID 80S MON TO MID/UPR 80S TUE
AND WED. BULK OF PCPN IS EXPECTED TO STAY S OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD WITH ANY CHANCE OF RAIN (20%) CONFINED TO EXTREME
SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. TSTMS IN THE
VICINITY OF KRIC SHOULD MOVE SEWD AWAY FROM THE TERMINAL BY
1830Z. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
22Z TO 01Z TIME FRAME...PER HI-RES MODELS. HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 18Z TAFS...AS THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNDERCERTAINTY REGARDING EXTENT OF LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHWRS/TSTMS. HAVE INSERTED SOME LIGHT FOG/HAZE
INTO KRIC/KECG/KSBY TAFS AS AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER STAGNANT...BUT
DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG TO
BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THAN HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY. KECG
HAD LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...AND THREAT FOR THIS OCCURRING
THURSDAY MORNING EXISTS.

OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SCTD MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHWRS/TSTMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME STRATUS AND FOG AT SOME OF THE
TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OCEAN STRATUS LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10
KT THIS AFTN INTO TNGT WITH A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES OVER THE
AREA...WITH WAVES/SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2 FT. SIMILAR PATTERN AND
CONDS INTO THUR WITH SOME AFTN SEABREEZES DEVELOPING. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRNT THEN DROPS INTO THE AREA FRI AS HI PRES DEVELOPS OVER
THE NE STATES. PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ENUF INTO FRI NIGHT TO
MAKE SCA CONDS PSBL OVER THE WTRS...LASTING THRU SAT AND SAT NGT
AS NE FLOW PERSISTS. WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE BY SUN AS THE SFC
HI WEAKENS AND FLOW BCMS MORE OUT OF THE E THAN NE. WINDS THEN
TURN TO THE SE THEN S MON INTO TUE WITH SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021944
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
344 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ISOLD/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS WILL CONT THROUGH THIS EVE AS WEAKENING
TROUGH ALOFT TRACKS ACRS THE FA. XPCG TREND DOWN IN COVERAGE AFT
01-04Z/03. OTRW...VRB CLDS THROUGH TNGT. LOCALLY HEAVY RA PSBL IN
ANY STMS. LO TEMPS FM THE U60S-L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WK SFC TROUGH LINGERS OVR THE FA...ESP ERN HALF THU/THU NGT. AFTER
THAT...HI PRES ALOFT AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE NE CONUS FRI INTO SAT. WK BNDRY WILL THEN BE SETTLING S
THROUGH THE MDATLC STATES FRI AFTN INTO SAT MRNG AS SFC HI PRES
BUILDS S THROUGH NEW ENG.

ANOTHER SUMMERY DAY THU W/ VRB CLDS/PARTLY SUNNY CONDS. PSBLY
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE INVOF SEA BREEZES AND SFC TROUGH FOR INCLUSION
OF AT LEAST SLGT CHC POPS...MNLY AFTN/EVE HRS. HI TEMPS FM THE
U80S-L90S.

PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS XPCD THU NGT AND FRI AS SFC WNDS TURN
NE RESULTING IN THE START OF A COOLDOWN. ONCE AGN...LO CONFIDENCE
IN COVERAGE OF PCPN...THOUGH WILL FAVOR HIGHEST POPS INLAND FM THE
CST (BY FRI AFTN). PD OF STRATUS PSBL FRI NGT INTO SAT (MRNG) AS
WNDS PICK UP FM THE NE...WHICH USHERS IN (EVENTUALLY SAT AFTN)
DRIER AIR (AND GRADUALLY CLEARING - LASTLY ACRS SRN VA/NE NC) FM
THE NE CONUS. HANGING ONTO 20-30% POPS FRI NGT INTO SAT...THOUGH
TREND IN ANY PCPN XPCD TO BE LWRG FM NE TO SW. ALSO...WILL LIKELY
BE A BREEZY START TO THE HOLIDAY WKND...ESP ERN PORTION...W/ PTNTL
GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.

LO TEMPS THU NGT FM THE U60S-70S. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L/M80S NE TO
THE U80S-ARND 90F SSW. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE M/U70S AT THE CST TO
L80S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY WX WITH SFC HI PRES IN
THE VICINITY. FOR SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...NE FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE
FA AS SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVER THE NRN MID ATLC. WITH SOME MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER SE
AREAS SAT NGT. TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60S SAT NGT AND REACH ONLY
THE LO/MID 80S SUN AFTN. FLOW BCMS ELY MON THAN SLY BY TUE AND
WED AS THE HI SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LO/MID 80S MON TO MID/UPR 80S TUE
AND WED. BULK OF PCPN IS EXPECTED TO STAY S OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD WITH ANY CHANCE OF RAIN (20%) CONFINED TO EXTREME
SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. TSTMS IN THE
VICINITY OF KRIC SHOULD MOVE SEWD AWAY FROM THE TERMINAL BY
1830Z. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
22Z TO 01Z TIME FRAME...PER HI-RES MODELS. HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 18Z TAFS...AS THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNDERCERTAINTY REGARDING EXTENT OF LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHWRS/TSTMS. HAVE INSERTED SOME LIGHT FOG/HAZE
INTO KRIC/KECG/KSBY TAFS AS AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER STAGNANT...BUT
DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG TO
BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THAN HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY. KECG
HAD LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...AND THREAT FOR THIS OCCURRING
THURSDAY MORNING EXISTS.

OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SCTD MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHWRS/TSTMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME STRATUS AND FOG AT SOME OF THE
TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OCEAN STRATUS LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10
KT THIS AFTN INTO TNGT WITH A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES OVER THE
AREA...WITH WAVES/SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2 FT. SIMILAR PATTERN AND
CONDS INTO THUR WITH SOME AFTN SEABREEZES DEVELOPING. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRNT THEN DROPS INTO THE AREA FRI AS HI PRES DEVELOPS OVER
THE NE STATES. PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ENUF INTO FRI NIGHT TO
MAKE SCA CONDS PSBL OVER THE WTRS...LASTING THRU SAT AND SAT NGT
AS NE FLOW PERSISTS. WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE BY SUN AS THE SFC
HI WEAKENS AND FLOW BCMS MORE OUT OF THE E THAN NE. WINDS THEN
TURN TO THE SE THEN S MON INTO TUE WITH SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021944
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
344 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ISOLD/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS WILL CONT THROUGH THIS EVE AS WEAKENING
TROUGH ALOFT TRACKS ACRS THE FA. XPCG TREND DOWN IN COVERAGE AFT
01-04Z/03. OTRW...VRB CLDS THROUGH TNGT. LOCALLY HEAVY RA PSBL IN
ANY STMS. LO TEMPS FM THE U60S-L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WK SFC TROUGH LINGERS OVR THE FA...ESP ERN HALF THU/THU NGT. AFTER
THAT...HI PRES ALOFT AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE NE CONUS FRI INTO SAT. WK BNDRY WILL THEN BE SETTLING S
THROUGH THE MDATLC STATES FRI AFTN INTO SAT MRNG AS SFC HI PRES
BUILDS S THROUGH NEW ENG.

ANOTHER SUMMERY DAY THU W/ VRB CLDS/PARTLY SUNNY CONDS. PSBLY
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE INVOF SEA BREEZES AND SFC TROUGH FOR INCLUSION
OF AT LEAST SLGT CHC POPS...MNLY AFTN/EVE HRS. HI TEMPS FM THE
U80S-L90S.

PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS XPCD THU NGT AND FRI AS SFC WNDS TURN
NE RESULTING IN THE START OF A COOLDOWN. ONCE AGN...LO CONFIDENCE
IN COVERAGE OF PCPN...THOUGH WILL FAVOR HIGHEST POPS INLAND FM THE
CST (BY FRI AFTN). PD OF STRATUS PSBL FRI NGT INTO SAT (MRNG) AS
WNDS PICK UP FM THE NE...WHICH USHERS IN (EVENTUALLY SAT AFTN)
DRIER AIR (AND GRADUALLY CLEARING - LASTLY ACRS SRN VA/NE NC) FM
THE NE CONUS. HANGING ONTO 20-30% POPS FRI NGT INTO SAT...THOUGH
TREND IN ANY PCPN XPCD TO BE LWRG FM NE TO SW. ALSO...WILL LIKELY
BE A BREEZY START TO THE HOLIDAY WKND...ESP ERN PORTION...W/ PTNTL
GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.

LO TEMPS THU NGT FM THE U60S-70S. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L/M80S NE TO
THE U80S-ARND 90F SSW. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE M/U70S AT THE CST TO
L80S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY WX WITH SFC HI PRES IN
THE VICINITY. FOR SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...NE FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE
FA AS SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVER THE NRN MID ATLC. WITH SOME MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER SE
AREAS SAT NGT. TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60S SAT NGT AND REACH ONLY
THE LO/MID 80S SUN AFTN. FLOW BCMS ELY MON THAN SLY BY TUE AND
WED AS THE HI SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LO/MID 80S MON TO MID/UPR 80S TUE
AND WED. BULK OF PCPN IS EXPECTED TO STAY S OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD WITH ANY CHANCE OF RAIN (20%) CONFINED TO EXTREME
SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. TSTMS IN THE
VICINITY OF KRIC SHOULD MOVE SEWD AWAY FROM THE TERMINAL BY
1830Z. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
22Z TO 01Z TIME FRAME...PER HI-RES MODELS. HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 18Z TAFS...AS THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNDERCERTAINTY REGARDING EXTENT OF LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHWRS/TSTMS. HAVE INSERTED SOME LIGHT FOG/HAZE
INTO KRIC/KECG/KSBY TAFS AS AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER STAGNANT...BUT
DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG TO
BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THAN HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY. KECG
HAD LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...AND THREAT FOR THIS OCCURRING
THURSDAY MORNING EXISTS.

OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SCTD MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHWRS/TSTMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME STRATUS AND FOG AT SOME OF THE
TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OCEAN STRATUS LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10
KT THIS AFTN INTO TNGT WITH A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES OVER THE
AREA...WITH WAVES/SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2 FT. SIMILAR PATTERN AND
CONDS INTO THUR WITH SOME AFTN SEABREEZES DEVELOPING. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRNT THEN DROPS INTO THE AREA FRI AS HI PRES DEVELOPS OVER
THE NE STATES. PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ENUF INTO FRI NIGHT TO
MAKE SCA CONDS PSBL OVER THE WTRS...LASTING THRU SAT AND SAT NGT
AS NE FLOW PERSISTS. WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE BY SUN AS THE SFC
HI WEAKENS AND FLOW BCMS MORE OUT OF THE E THAN NE. WINDS THEN
TURN TO THE SE THEN S MON INTO TUE WITH SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...MAS



000
FXUS61 KPHI 021943
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
343 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY,
AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AND REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE WEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF COAST AND MIDWEST STATES
THRU TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH BECOMES STATIONARY
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. TRIMMED BACK ON POPS FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON BUT AN ISOLATED POP-UP SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE
IN THE LOWER DELMARVA.

UNDER A FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP THIS EVENING, EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING, FOG WILL LIKELY BE MOST WIDESPREAD
AND DENSE FROM THE DELAWARE VALLEY TO THE COAST SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE PRIMED WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS WHERE TODAY`S SEA-BREEZE FRONT
MAKES IT THRU. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER DENSE FOG
EVENT IN THE HWO. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENT OF THE DENSE
FOG TONIGHT AS THE MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THAT IS PARTIALLY
RESPONSIBLE FOR TRAPPING MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE WEAKER
TONIGHT THAN IT WAS LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY. A COUPLE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRACKING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST STATES. AT THE SURFACE, A PRESSURE TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH A SUBTLE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SHARPEN OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THRU OUR AREA WITH WEAK NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW
UNDER 10 KT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WEAKENING OF THE CAP OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH MODEST CAA OCCURRING NEAR 700 MB. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
WILL BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION THURSDAY THAN TODAY AS A
RESULT. HOWEVER, EXPECT ANY COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BE
PREDOMINATELY ISOLATED OWING TO A LACK OF ORGANIZED LIFT (EXCEPT FOR
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE BACKDOOR FRONT AND ALSO ALONG THE SEA-
BREEZE BOUNDARY).

FORECAST MAX TEMPS FOR THURSDAY VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY AND
YESTERDAY`S...80S IN THE HIGHLANDS AND ALONG THE COAST, MID 90S IN
THE URBAN AREA, AND LOW 90S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CHANCE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK,
FOLLOWED BY A QUIET WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN
SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAY DIMINISH SOME OVERNIGHT THURSDAY, BUT WE EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST
TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT, GENERALLY 0.25 INCHES OR LESS. HOWEVER, THERE
COULD BE SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS PW VALUES INCREASE TO
1.5-1.75 INCHES, ESPECIALLY WHERE THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR.

ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST FROM THE NORTH FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY, WHICH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. A
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY, AND THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE A FEW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES COOL OFF SLIGHTLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
WARMING TREND SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...THE FOLLOWING
DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY
AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR THRU THIS EVENING. AT 1930Z, A SEA-BREEZE FRONT WAS MOVING THRU
THE NJ PINE BARRENS AND NEAR MIV. THIS SEA BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS INLAND ALL THE WAY INTO THE I-95 TERMINALS BY AROUND 00Z.
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM OUT OF THE W-NW TO THE S-SE BUT WILL BE LIGHT
(UNDER 10 KT).

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS TAF PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF FOG OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WENT WITH A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT, WHICH YIELDS A MUCH MORE
PESSISMISTIC FORECAST IN TERMS OF VISIBILITIES THAN ALL AVAILABLE
NWP AND STAT GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED THUS FAR. CONFIDENCE IN FOG IS
HIGHEST CLOSER TO THE COAST, SO WENT WITH LIFR AT MIV AND FOG EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

CIGS AND LOW CLOUDS LIFTS BY 14-15Z THURSDAY. VFR FOR MOST OF THE
DAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FORECAST TO DEVELOPS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FOCUS OF THIS POTENTIAL CONVECTION IS IN THE HIGHLANDS
(CLOSEST TO RDG AND ABE) AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ANTICIPATED COVERAGE
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS THIS FAR OUT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS AND/OR VSBYS,
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. GUSTY EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY E-NE WINDS AROUND 15-
20 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE AROUND
DAYBREAK EACH DAY.
&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. WINDS COULD BE
AS STRONG AS 15 KT THRU THIS EVE AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ONCE THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT MOVES INLAND.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS WITH THE EASTERLY FETCH BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. WINDS MAY APPROACH OR
EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SEAS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BACK BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON



000
FXUS61 KPHI 021943
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
343 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY,
AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AND REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE WEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF COAST AND MIDWEST STATES
THRU TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH BECOMES STATIONARY
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. TRIMMED BACK ON POPS FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON BUT AN ISOLATED POP-UP SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE
IN THE LOWER DELMARVA.

UNDER A FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP THIS EVENING, EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING, FOG WILL LIKELY BE MOST WIDESPREAD
AND DENSE FROM THE DELAWARE VALLEY TO THE COAST SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE PRIMED WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS WHERE TODAY`S SEA-BREEZE FRONT
MAKES IT THRU. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER DENSE FOG
EVENT IN THE HWO. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENT OF THE DENSE
FOG TONIGHT AS THE MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THAT IS PARTIALLY
RESPONSIBLE FOR TRAPPING MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE WEAKER
TONIGHT THAN IT WAS LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY. A COUPLE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRACKING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST STATES. AT THE SURFACE, A PRESSURE TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH A SUBTLE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SHARPEN OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THRU OUR AREA WITH WEAK NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW
UNDER 10 KT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WEAKENING OF THE CAP OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH MODEST CAA OCCURRING NEAR 700 MB. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
WILL BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION THURSDAY THAN TODAY AS A
RESULT. HOWEVER, EXPECT ANY COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BE
PREDOMINATELY ISOLATED OWING TO A LACK OF ORGANIZED LIFT (EXCEPT FOR
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE BACKDOOR FRONT AND ALSO ALONG THE SEA-
BREEZE BOUNDARY).

FORECAST MAX TEMPS FOR THURSDAY VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY AND
YESTERDAY`S...80S IN THE HIGHLANDS AND ALONG THE COAST, MID 90S IN
THE URBAN AREA, AND LOW 90S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CHANCE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK,
FOLLOWED BY A QUIET WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN
SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAY DIMINISH SOME OVERNIGHT THURSDAY, BUT WE EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST
TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT, GENERALLY 0.25 INCHES OR LESS. HOWEVER, THERE
COULD BE SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS PW VALUES INCREASE TO
1.5-1.75 INCHES, ESPECIALLY WHERE THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR.

ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST FROM THE NORTH FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY, WHICH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. A
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY, AND THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE A FEW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES COOL OFF SLIGHTLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
WARMING TREND SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...THE FOLLOWING
DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY
AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR THRU THIS EVENING. AT 1930Z, A SEA-BREEZE FRONT WAS MOVING THRU
THE NJ PINE BARRENS AND NEAR MIV. THIS SEA BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS INLAND ALL THE WAY INTO THE I-95 TERMINALS BY AROUND 00Z.
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM OUT OF THE W-NW TO THE S-SE BUT WILL BE LIGHT
(UNDER 10 KT).

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS TAF PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF FOG OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WENT WITH A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT, WHICH YIELDS A MUCH MORE
PESSISMISTIC FORECAST IN TERMS OF VISIBILITIES THAN ALL AVAILABLE
NWP AND STAT GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED THUS FAR. CONFIDENCE IN FOG IS
HIGHEST CLOSER TO THE COAST, SO WENT WITH LIFR AT MIV AND FOG EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

CIGS AND LOW CLOUDS LIFTS BY 14-15Z THURSDAY. VFR FOR MOST OF THE
DAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FORECAST TO DEVELOPS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FOCUS OF THIS POTENTIAL CONVECTION IS IN THE HIGHLANDS
(CLOSEST TO RDG AND ABE) AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ANTICIPATED COVERAGE
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS THIS FAR OUT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS AND/OR VSBYS,
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. GUSTY EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY E-NE WINDS AROUND 15-
20 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE AROUND
DAYBREAK EACH DAY.
&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. WINDS COULD BE
AS STRONG AS 15 KT THRU THIS EVE AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ONCE THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT MOVES INLAND.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS WITH THE EASTERLY FETCH BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. WINDS MAY APPROACH OR
EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SEAS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BACK BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON




000
FXUS61 KLWX 021928
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
328 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD THURSDAY BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR LIT UP BY 16Z AS S/WV ENERGY HIT THE 2000 J/KG MUCAPE AMS.
THERE/S STILL NO SHEAR TO SPEAK OF...BUT INSTBY...PVA AND STEEP
LLVL LAPSE RATES HV WORKED IN CONCERT TO PRODUCE SCT-NMRS TSRA W
OF THE BLURDG. ECHOES PRIMARILY IN THE LWX CWFA. SOME OF THESE
ECHOES HV BEEN TALL. PER PREV ANALYSIS...ALTHO SVR WX NOT
XPCTD... IF A THREAT WERE TO COME FM THESE...IT WUD BE FM A WET
MICROBURST. DO HV HVY RAIN IN THESE CELLS AS WELL. PWAT RUNNING
BTWN 1.5-1.75 INCH. WHILE FFG HIGH ENUF SO THAT SHUDNT BE AN ISSUE
EITHER /WEVE BEEN IN A DRY SPELL PAST MONTH OR TWO/...REPEATED
ECHOES MAY CAUSE LCL PONDING.

BUMPED POPS UP INTO THE LKLY RANGE FOR REST OF THE AFTN. AM
CONFINING HIEST POPS INVOF THE S/WV...WHICH WL TAKE IT S OF DC BY
SUNSET...AND OUT OF THE CWFA BY MIDNGT. AM THINKING THE CLDS WL
THIN IN THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE VORT...SO WL HV MOCLR
SKIES OVNGT. SINCE GRND WL BE WET...AMS HUMID...AND WNDS STILL
LGT...THAT MAKES FOR A GOOD FOG RECIPE. HV PATCHY FOG FOR MUCH OF
VA/PTMC HIGHLANDS BY DAWN.

HV MADE NO ADJUSTMENTS TO MIN-T...WHICH WL RANGE FM MID 60S TO LWR
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
H5 RDG AXIS WL RESIDE ACRS THE MS VLY THU...WHICH PLACES CWFA IN
THE NW FLOW. HWVR...THE AMS WL BE JUST AS WARM...HUMID...AND
UNSTBL AS TDA. WUD XPCT DIURNALLY DRIVE TSRA TO DVLP ALNG THE MTNS
DURING THE AFTN. THERES CONSISTENT MDL EVIDENCE THAT THESE STORMS
WL EMERGE FM THE MTNS AND TRACK INTO THE CSTL PLAIN BY EVNG.
TIMING SPECIFIC VORTS PROBLEMATIC AT THIS POINT...BUT WUD THINK
THAT ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WL CLEAR CWFA BEFORE DAWN.

HVNT MADE ANY BIG ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...AS PERSISTENCE SHUD PROVE
TO BE A GOOD FCSTG MODEL.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE DURING THE LONG TERM WILL BE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PROVIDING
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. ATTM...KEPT POPS AT CHANCE
EVERYWHERE...AS NOT ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. WHILE
CAPE WILL BE LOW/MODERATE...GENERALLY AOA 1000 J/KG...EBS NEARLY
NONEXISTENT...SO EXPECT PULSE-TYPE ACTIVITY AND HEAVY RAINERS AS
INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVE VERY SLOWLY. CLOUD COVER...ONSHORE FLOW...AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD WORK IN CONCERT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES AOA NORMAL. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD DWINDLE QUICKLY
AFTER DUSK FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF INSTABILITY.

VERY LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIABILITY IN SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY AND
REMAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH WARM MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...LAPSE RATES WILL BE VERY POOR...CONSEQUENTLY CHANCES
FOR PRECIP DURING THIS PERIOD APPEAR VERY LOW AND GENERALLY WOULD
ONLY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE WEST.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE U50S BY SUNDAY. BY
MONDAY...TEMPERATURES START CREEPING BACK ABOVE NORMAL AND BY
TUESDAY SOME AREAS COULD BE BACK INTO L90S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NMRS TSRA INVOF MRB/CHO...AND THESE STORMS APPCHG IAD. DCA SHUD BE
ON THE EDGE OF THE ACTIVITY. XPCT BRIEF IFR W/IN ANY STORM. SOME
STRONG WIND GUSTS PSBL.

ONCE STORMS CLR...SHUD BE PLENTY OF RESIDUAL LLVL MSTR AS SKIES
CLR. MVFR FOG POTL...SPCLY MRB/CHO. WL NEED TO EVALUATE EXTENT OF
IFR POTL.

FCST SHUD BE RELATIVELY SIMLR TMRW...EXCEPT ALL ACTIVITY SHUD BE
SVRL HRS LATER. LT DAY/ELY EVE TSRA...PRODUCING LCL RESTRICTIONS.

SUB-VFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
NMRS TSRA ACRS THE LAND ATTM. THESE SHUD STAY W OF THE
WATERS...BUT WONT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STORM OR TWO REACHING THE
PTMC. STRONG WIND GUST POTL W/IN A FEW OF THESE STORMS.

NW FLOW THRU THU. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT TSRA PSBL LATE DAY INTO THE
EVNG...MOSTLY STAYING W OF THE MARINE AREA BUT THE PTMC RIVER WL
BE ON THE EDGE OF THE HIEST POTL RGN.

WINDS EXPECTED NEAR SCA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO BRING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SCA
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...HTS/MSE
MARINE...HTS/MSE



000
FXUS61 KLWX 021928
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
328 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD THURSDAY BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR LIT UP BY 16Z AS S/WV ENERGY HIT THE 2000 J/KG MUCAPE AMS.
THERE/S STILL NO SHEAR TO SPEAK OF...BUT INSTBY...PVA AND STEEP
LLVL LAPSE RATES HV WORKED IN CONCERT TO PRODUCE SCT-NMRS TSRA W
OF THE BLURDG. ECHOES PRIMARILY IN THE LWX CWFA. SOME OF THESE
ECHOES HV BEEN TALL. PER PREV ANALYSIS...ALTHO SVR WX NOT
XPCTD... IF A THREAT WERE TO COME FM THESE...IT WUD BE FM A WET
MICROBURST. DO HV HVY RAIN IN THESE CELLS AS WELL. PWAT RUNNING
BTWN 1.5-1.75 INCH. WHILE FFG HIGH ENUF SO THAT SHUDNT BE AN ISSUE
EITHER /WEVE BEEN IN A DRY SPELL PAST MONTH OR TWO/...REPEATED
ECHOES MAY CAUSE LCL PONDING.

BUMPED POPS UP INTO THE LKLY RANGE FOR REST OF THE AFTN. AM
CONFINING HIEST POPS INVOF THE S/WV...WHICH WL TAKE IT S OF DC BY
SUNSET...AND OUT OF THE CWFA BY MIDNGT. AM THINKING THE CLDS WL
THIN IN THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE VORT...SO WL HV MOCLR
SKIES OVNGT. SINCE GRND WL BE WET...AMS HUMID...AND WNDS STILL
LGT...THAT MAKES FOR A GOOD FOG RECIPE. HV PATCHY FOG FOR MUCH OF
VA/PTMC HIGHLANDS BY DAWN.

HV MADE NO ADJUSTMENTS TO MIN-T...WHICH WL RANGE FM MID 60S TO LWR
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
H5 RDG AXIS WL RESIDE ACRS THE MS VLY THU...WHICH PLACES CWFA IN
THE NW FLOW. HWVR...THE AMS WL BE JUST AS WARM...HUMID...AND
UNSTBL AS TDA. WUD XPCT DIURNALLY DRIVE TSRA TO DVLP ALNG THE MTNS
DURING THE AFTN. THERES CONSISTENT MDL EVIDENCE THAT THESE STORMS
WL EMERGE FM THE MTNS AND TRACK INTO THE CSTL PLAIN BY EVNG.
TIMING SPECIFIC VORTS PROBLEMATIC AT THIS POINT...BUT WUD THINK
THAT ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WL CLEAR CWFA BEFORE DAWN.

HVNT MADE ANY BIG ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...AS PERSISTENCE SHUD PROVE
TO BE A GOOD FCSTG MODEL.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE DURING THE LONG TERM WILL BE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PROVIDING
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. ATTM...KEPT POPS AT CHANCE
EVERYWHERE...AS NOT ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. WHILE
CAPE WILL BE LOW/MODERATE...GENERALLY AOA 1000 J/KG...EBS NEARLY
NONEXISTENT...SO EXPECT PULSE-TYPE ACTIVITY AND HEAVY RAINERS AS
INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVE VERY SLOWLY. CLOUD COVER...ONSHORE FLOW...AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD WORK IN CONCERT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES AOA NORMAL. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD DWINDLE QUICKLY
AFTER DUSK FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF INSTABILITY.

VERY LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIABILITY IN SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY AND
REMAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH WARM MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...LAPSE RATES WILL BE VERY POOR...CONSEQUENTLY CHANCES
FOR PRECIP DURING THIS PERIOD APPEAR VERY LOW AND GENERALLY WOULD
ONLY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE WEST.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE U50S BY SUNDAY. BY
MONDAY...TEMPERATURES START CREEPING BACK ABOVE NORMAL AND BY
TUESDAY SOME AREAS COULD BE BACK INTO L90S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NMRS TSRA INVOF MRB/CHO...AND THESE STORMS APPCHG IAD. DCA SHUD BE
ON THE EDGE OF THE ACTIVITY. XPCT BRIEF IFR W/IN ANY STORM. SOME
STRONG WIND GUSTS PSBL.

ONCE STORMS CLR...SHUD BE PLENTY OF RESIDUAL LLVL MSTR AS SKIES
CLR. MVFR FOG POTL...SPCLY MRB/CHO. WL NEED TO EVALUATE EXTENT OF
IFR POTL.

FCST SHUD BE RELATIVELY SIMLR TMRW...EXCEPT ALL ACTIVITY SHUD BE
SVRL HRS LATER. LT DAY/ELY EVE TSRA...PRODUCING LCL RESTRICTIONS.

SUB-VFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
NMRS TSRA ACRS THE LAND ATTM. THESE SHUD STAY W OF THE
WATERS...BUT WONT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STORM OR TWO REACHING THE
PTMC. STRONG WIND GUST POTL W/IN A FEW OF THESE STORMS.

NW FLOW THRU THU. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT TSRA PSBL LATE DAY INTO THE
EVNG...MOSTLY STAYING W OF THE MARINE AREA BUT THE PTMC RIVER WL
BE ON THE EDGE OF THE HIEST POTL RGN.

WINDS EXPECTED NEAR SCA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO BRING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SCA
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...HTS/MSE
MARINE...HTS/MSE



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 021841
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
241 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A SHORTWAVE ADVANCING THROUGH SW PA AND NORTHERN WV SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING UNTIL THE WAVE EXITS...THOUGH NORMALIZED
CAPE INDICATES ASCENT SHOULD BE WEAK. SUBSIDENCE AND RIDGING
BEHIND THE WAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER LATER TONIGHT. LOWS
SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE
LATEST TWEAKED SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...ANOTHER
APPROACHING WEAK SHORTWAVE SHOULD RETURN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO THE REGION BY AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS ARE
REACHED. THE PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY END THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
FRIDAY FOR AREAS FROM PIT SOUTH...THOUGH BUILDING UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE USING GFS MOS AND SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION AND PERI-DAWN FOG.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 021841
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
241 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A SHORTWAVE ADVANCING THROUGH SW PA AND NORTHERN WV SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING UNTIL THE WAVE EXITS...THOUGH NORMALIZED
CAPE INDICATES ASCENT SHOULD BE WEAK. SUBSIDENCE AND RIDGING
BEHIND THE WAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER LATER TONIGHT. LOWS
SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE
LATEST TWEAKED SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...ANOTHER
APPROACHING WEAK SHORTWAVE SHOULD RETURN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO THE REGION BY AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS ARE
REACHED. THE PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY END THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
FRIDAY FOR AREAS FROM PIT SOUTH...THOUGH BUILDING UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE USING GFS MOS AND SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION AND PERI-DAWN FOG.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021840
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
240 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ISOLD/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS WILL CONT THROUGH THIS EVE AS WEAKENING
TROUGH ALOFT TRACKS ACRS THE FA. XPCG TREND DOWN IN COVERAGE AFT
01-04Z/03. OTRW...VRB CLDS THROUGH TNGT. LOCALLY HEAVY RA PSBL IN
ANY STMS. LO TEMPS FM THE U60S-L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WK SFC TROUGH LINGERS OVR THE FA...ESP ERN HALF THU/THU NGT. AFTER
THAT...HI PRES ALOFT AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE NE CONUS FRI INTO SAT. WK BNDRY WILL THEN BE SETTLING S
THROUGH THE MDATLC STATES FRI AFTN INTO SAT MRNG AS SFC HI PRES
BUILDS S THROUGH NEW ENG.

ANOTHER SUMMERY DAY THU W/ VRB CLDS/PARTLY SUNNY CONDS. PSBLY
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE INVOF SEA BREEZES AND SFC TROUGH FOR INCLUSION
OF AT LEAST SLGT CHC POPS...MNLY AFTN/EVE HRS. HI TEMPS FM THE
U80S-L90S.

PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS XPCD THU NGT AND FRI AS SFC WNDS TURN
NE RESULTING IN THE START OF A COOLDOWN. ONCE AGN...LO CONFIDENCE
IN COVERAGE OF PCPN...THOUGH WILL FAVOR HIGHEST POPS INLAND FM THE
CST (BY FRI AFTN). PD OF STRATUS PSBL FRI NGT INTO SAT (MRNG) AS
WNDS PICK UP FM THE NE...WHICH USHERS IN (EVENTUALLY SAT AFTN)
DRIER AIR (AND GRADUALLY CLEARING - LASTLY ACRS SRN VA/NE NC) FM
THE NE CONUS. HANGING ONTO 20-30% POPS FRI NGT INTO SAT...THOUGH
TREND IN ANY PCPN XPCD TO BE LWRG FM NE TO SW. ALSO...WILL LIKELY
BE A BREEZY START TO THE HOLIDAY WKND...ESP ERN PORTION...W/ PTNTL
GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.

LO TEMPS THU NGT FM THE U60S-70S. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L/M80S NE TO
THE U80S-ARND 90F SSW. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE M/U70S AT THE CST TO
L80S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
INITIALLY...20-30% POP FOR A SHOWER AND MAYBE A TSTM FRI NGT THRU
SAT AFTN...AS WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS THRU THE AREA...AS HI PRES
BLDS FM ERN CANADA SWRD TO ALNG THE NEW ENGLAND CST. THEN...WILL
HAVE DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU TUE...AS THE CNTR OF HI PRES BLDS DOWN
OVR THE MID ATLC REGION AND JUST OFFSHR. HIGHS WILL BE 80 TO 85 SAT
AND SUN...GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S MON...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 80S
TUE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SAT MORNG...IN THE 60S
SUN AND MON MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 TUE MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. TSTMS IN THE
VICINITY OF KRIC SHOULD MOVE SEWD AWAY FROM THE TERMINAL BY
1830Z. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
22Z TO 01Z TIME FRAME...PER HI-RES MODELS. HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 18Z TAFS...AS THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNDERCERTAINTY REGARDING EXTENT OF LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHWRS/TSTMS. HAVE INSERTED SOME LIGHT FOG/HAZE
INTO KRIC/KECG/KSBY TAFS AS AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER STAGNANT...BUT
DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG TO
BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THAN HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY. KECG
HAD LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...AND THREAT FOR THIS OCCURRING
THURSDAY MORNING EXISTS.

OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SCTD MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHWRS/TSTMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME STRATUS AND FOG AT SOME OF THE
TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OCEAN STRATUS LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN SHORT TERM. WNDS REMAIN AOB 10 KTS ALONG WITH SEAS
AOB 2 FT THRU THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES. XPCT ONSHORE SEA
BREEZES BOTH THIS AFTRN AND THU AFTRN WITH WNDS BCMG MORE WSW AT
NIGHT.

DATA SUGGESTS HIGH PRS TO THE N WILL BE STRONG ENUF TO PUSH A BKDR
CDFRNT S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI. THE HIGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS WKEND. THIS SCENARIO RESULTS IN A XTNDD PRD
OF NE FLOW. DATA EVEN SUGGESTS SOLID SCA CNDTNS DVLPNG N-S FRI NIGHT
AND CONTG SAT AS WNDS INCRS TO BTWN 15-25 KTS ALONG WITH BLDG SEAS
TO BTWN 4-6 FT.

IN ADDITION...THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NEARSHORE WAVES
OF 3-4 FT WHICH WILL INCRG THE RIP CURRENT THREAT FOR THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WKEND. DESPITE BEING OUT 3 DAYS...TIDAL GUID SUGGESTS TIDES
BUILDING TO BTWN 1/2 TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NRML BY SAT...BUT REMAINING BLO
MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...MPR



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021840
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
240 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ISOLD/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS WILL CONT THROUGH THIS EVE AS WEAKENING
TROUGH ALOFT TRACKS ACRS THE FA. XPCG TREND DOWN IN COVERAGE AFT
01-04Z/03. OTRW...VRB CLDS THROUGH TNGT. LOCALLY HEAVY RA PSBL IN
ANY STMS. LO TEMPS FM THE U60S-L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WK SFC TROUGH LINGERS OVR THE FA...ESP ERN HALF THU/THU NGT. AFTER
THAT...HI PRES ALOFT AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE NE CONUS FRI INTO SAT. WK BNDRY WILL THEN BE SETTLING S
THROUGH THE MDATLC STATES FRI AFTN INTO SAT MRNG AS SFC HI PRES
BUILDS S THROUGH NEW ENG.

ANOTHER SUMMERY DAY THU W/ VRB CLDS/PARTLY SUNNY CONDS. PSBLY
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE INVOF SEA BREEZES AND SFC TROUGH FOR INCLUSION
OF AT LEAST SLGT CHC POPS...MNLY AFTN/EVE HRS. HI TEMPS FM THE
U80S-L90S.

PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS XPCD THU NGT AND FRI AS SFC WNDS TURN
NE RESULTING IN THE START OF A COOLDOWN. ONCE AGN...LO CONFIDENCE
IN COVERAGE OF PCPN...THOUGH WILL FAVOR HIGHEST POPS INLAND FM THE
CST (BY FRI AFTN). PD OF STRATUS PSBL FRI NGT INTO SAT (MRNG) AS
WNDS PICK UP FM THE NE...WHICH USHERS IN (EVENTUALLY SAT AFTN)
DRIER AIR (AND GRADUALLY CLEARING - LASTLY ACRS SRN VA/NE NC) FM
THE NE CONUS. HANGING ONTO 20-30% POPS FRI NGT INTO SAT...THOUGH
TREND IN ANY PCPN XPCD TO BE LWRG FM NE TO SW. ALSO...WILL LIKELY
BE A BREEZY START TO THE HOLIDAY WKND...ESP ERN PORTION...W/ PTNTL
GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.

LO TEMPS THU NGT FM THE U60S-70S. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L/M80S NE TO
THE U80S-ARND 90F SSW. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE M/U70S AT THE CST TO
L80S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
INITIALLY...20-30% POP FOR A SHOWER AND MAYBE A TSTM FRI NGT THRU
SAT AFTN...AS WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS THRU THE AREA...AS HI PRES
BLDS FM ERN CANADA SWRD TO ALNG THE NEW ENGLAND CST. THEN...WILL
HAVE DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU TUE...AS THE CNTR OF HI PRES BLDS DOWN
OVR THE MID ATLC REGION AND JUST OFFSHR. HIGHS WILL BE 80 TO 85 SAT
AND SUN...GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S MON...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 80S
TUE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SAT MORNG...IN THE 60S
SUN AND MON MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 TUE MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. TSTMS IN THE
VICINITY OF KRIC SHOULD MOVE SEWD AWAY FROM THE TERMINAL BY
1830Z. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
22Z TO 01Z TIME FRAME...PER HI-RES MODELS. HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 18Z TAFS...AS THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNDERCERTAINTY REGARDING EXTENT OF LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHWRS/TSTMS. HAVE INSERTED SOME LIGHT FOG/HAZE
INTO KRIC/KECG/KSBY TAFS AS AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER STAGNANT...BUT
DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG TO
BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THAN HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY. KECG
HAD LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...AND THREAT FOR THIS OCCURRING
THURSDAY MORNING EXISTS.

OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SCTD MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHWRS/TSTMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME STRATUS AND FOG AT SOME OF THE
TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OCEAN STRATUS LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN SHORT TERM. WNDS REMAIN AOB 10 KTS ALONG WITH SEAS
AOB 2 FT THRU THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES. XPCT ONSHORE SEA
BREEZES BOTH THIS AFTRN AND THU AFTRN WITH WNDS BCMG MORE WSW AT
NIGHT.

DATA SUGGESTS HIGH PRS TO THE N WILL BE STRONG ENUF TO PUSH A BKDR
CDFRNT S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI. THE HIGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS WKEND. THIS SCENARIO RESULTS IN A XTNDD PRD
OF NE FLOW. DATA EVEN SUGGESTS SOLID SCA CNDTNS DVLPNG N-S FRI NIGHT
AND CONTG SAT AS WNDS INCRS TO BTWN 15-25 KTS ALONG WITH BLDG SEAS
TO BTWN 4-6 FT.

IN ADDITION...THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NEARSHORE WAVES
OF 3-4 FT WHICH WILL INCRG THE RIP CURRENT THREAT FOR THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WKEND. DESPITE BEING OUT 3 DAYS...TIDAL GUID SUGGESTS TIDES
BUILDING TO BTWN 1/2 TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NRML BY SAT...BUT REMAINING BLO
MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...MPR




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021840
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
240 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ISOLD/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS WILL CONT THROUGH THIS EVE AS WEAKENING
TROUGH ALOFT TRACKS ACRS THE FA. XPCG TREND DOWN IN COVERAGE AFT
01-04Z/03. OTRW...VRB CLDS THROUGH TNGT. LOCALLY HEAVY RA PSBL IN
ANY STMS. LO TEMPS FM THE U60S-L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WK SFC TROUGH LINGERS OVR THE FA...ESP ERN HALF THU/THU NGT. AFTER
THAT...HI PRES ALOFT AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE NE CONUS FRI INTO SAT. WK BNDRY WILL THEN BE SETTLING S
THROUGH THE MDATLC STATES FRI AFTN INTO SAT MRNG AS SFC HI PRES
BUILDS S THROUGH NEW ENG.

ANOTHER SUMMERY DAY THU W/ VRB CLDS/PARTLY SUNNY CONDS. PSBLY
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE INVOF SEA BREEZES AND SFC TROUGH FOR INCLUSION
OF AT LEAST SLGT CHC POPS...MNLY AFTN/EVE HRS. HI TEMPS FM THE
U80S-L90S.

PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS XPCD THU NGT AND FRI AS SFC WNDS TURN
NE RESULTING IN THE START OF A COOLDOWN. ONCE AGN...LO CONFIDENCE
IN COVERAGE OF PCPN...THOUGH WILL FAVOR HIGHEST POPS INLAND FM THE
CST (BY FRI AFTN). PD OF STRATUS PSBL FRI NGT INTO SAT (MRNG) AS
WNDS PICK UP FM THE NE...WHICH USHERS IN (EVENTUALLY SAT AFTN)
DRIER AIR (AND GRADUALLY CLEARING - LASTLY ACRS SRN VA/NE NC) FM
THE NE CONUS. HANGING ONTO 20-30% POPS FRI NGT INTO SAT...THOUGH
TREND IN ANY PCPN XPCD TO BE LWRG FM NE TO SW. ALSO...WILL LIKELY
BE A BREEZY START TO THE HOLIDAY WKND...ESP ERN PORTION...W/ PTNTL
GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.

LO TEMPS THU NGT FM THE U60S-70S. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L/M80S NE TO
THE U80S-ARND 90F SSW. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE M/U70S AT THE CST TO
L80S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
INITIALLY...20-30% POP FOR A SHOWER AND MAYBE A TSTM FRI NGT THRU
SAT AFTN...AS WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS THRU THE AREA...AS HI PRES
BLDS FM ERN CANADA SWRD TO ALNG THE NEW ENGLAND CST. THEN...WILL
HAVE DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU TUE...AS THE CNTR OF HI PRES BLDS DOWN
OVR THE MID ATLC REGION AND JUST OFFSHR. HIGHS WILL BE 80 TO 85 SAT
AND SUN...GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S MON...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 80S
TUE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SAT MORNG...IN THE 60S
SUN AND MON MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 TUE MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. TSTMS IN THE
VICINITY OF KRIC SHOULD MOVE SEWD AWAY FROM THE TERMINAL BY
1830Z. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
22Z TO 01Z TIME FRAME...PER HI-RES MODELS. HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 18Z TAFS...AS THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNDERCERTAINTY REGARDING EXTENT OF LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHWRS/TSTMS. HAVE INSERTED SOME LIGHT FOG/HAZE
INTO KRIC/KECG/KSBY TAFS AS AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER STAGNANT...BUT
DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG TO
BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THAN HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY. KECG
HAD LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...AND THREAT FOR THIS OCCURRING
THURSDAY MORNING EXISTS.

OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SCTD MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHWRS/TSTMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME STRATUS AND FOG AT SOME OF THE
TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OCEAN STRATUS LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN SHORT TERM. WNDS REMAIN AOB 10 KTS ALONG WITH SEAS
AOB 2 FT THRU THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES. XPCT ONSHORE SEA
BREEZES BOTH THIS AFTRN AND THU AFTRN WITH WNDS BCMG MORE WSW AT
NIGHT.

DATA SUGGESTS HIGH PRS TO THE N WILL BE STRONG ENUF TO PUSH A BKDR
CDFRNT S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI. THE HIGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS WKEND. THIS SCENARIO RESULTS IN A XTNDD PRD
OF NE FLOW. DATA EVEN SUGGESTS SOLID SCA CNDTNS DVLPNG N-S FRI NIGHT
AND CONTG SAT AS WNDS INCRS TO BTWN 15-25 KTS ALONG WITH BLDG SEAS
TO BTWN 4-6 FT.

IN ADDITION...THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NEARSHORE WAVES
OF 3-4 FT WHICH WILL INCRG THE RIP CURRENT THREAT FOR THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WKEND. DESPITE BEING OUT 3 DAYS...TIDAL GUID SUGGESTS TIDES
BUILDING TO BTWN 1/2 TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NRML BY SAT...BUT REMAINING BLO
MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...MPR




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021840
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
240 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ISOLD/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS WILL CONT THROUGH THIS EVE AS WEAKENING
TROUGH ALOFT TRACKS ACRS THE FA. XPCG TREND DOWN IN COVERAGE AFT
01-04Z/03. OTRW...VRB CLDS THROUGH TNGT. LOCALLY HEAVY RA PSBL IN
ANY STMS. LO TEMPS FM THE U60S-L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WK SFC TROUGH LINGERS OVR THE FA...ESP ERN HALF THU/THU NGT. AFTER
THAT...HI PRES ALOFT AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE NE CONUS FRI INTO SAT. WK BNDRY WILL THEN BE SETTLING S
THROUGH THE MDATLC STATES FRI AFTN INTO SAT MRNG AS SFC HI PRES
BUILDS S THROUGH NEW ENG.

ANOTHER SUMMERY DAY THU W/ VRB CLDS/PARTLY SUNNY CONDS. PSBLY
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE INVOF SEA BREEZES AND SFC TROUGH FOR INCLUSION
OF AT LEAST SLGT CHC POPS...MNLY AFTN/EVE HRS. HI TEMPS FM THE
U80S-L90S.

PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS XPCD THU NGT AND FRI AS SFC WNDS TURN
NE RESULTING IN THE START OF A COOLDOWN. ONCE AGN...LO CONFIDENCE
IN COVERAGE OF PCPN...THOUGH WILL FAVOR HIGHEST POPS INLAND FM THE
CST (BY FRI AFTN). PD OF STRATUS PSBL FRI NGT INTO SAT (MRNG) AS
WNDS PICK UP FM THE NE...WHICH USHERS IN (EVENTUALLY SAT AFTN)
DRIER AIR (AND GRADUALLY CLEARING - LASTLY ACRS SRN VA/NE NC) FM
THE NE CONUS. HANGING ONTO 20-30% POPS FRI NGT INTO SAT...THOUGH
TREND IN ANY PCPN XPCD TO BE LWRG FM NE TO SW. ALSO...WILL LIKELY
BE A BREEZY START TO THE HOLIDAY WKND...ESP ERN PORTION...W/ PTNTL
GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.

LO TEMPS THU NGT FM THE U60S-70S. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L/M80S NE TO
THE U80S-ARND 90F SSW. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE M/U70S AT THE CST TO
L80S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
INITIALLY...20-30% POP FOR A SHOWER AND MAYBE A TSTM FRI NGT THRU
SAT AFTN...AS WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS THRU THE AREA...AS HI PRES
BLDS FM ERN CANADA SWRD TO ALNG THE NEW ENGLAND CST. THEN...WILL
HAVE DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU TUE...AS THE CNTR OF HI PRES BLDS DOWN
OVR THE MID ATLC REGION AND JUST OFFSHR. HIGHS WILL BE 80 TO 85 SAT
AND SUN...GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S MON...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 80S
TUE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SAT MORNG...IN THE 60S
SUN AND MON MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 TUE MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. TSTMS IN THE
VICINITY OF KRIC SHOULD MOVE SEWD AWAY FROM THE TERMINAL BY
1830Z. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
22Z TO 01Z TIME FRAME...PER HI-RES MODELS. HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 18Z TAFS...AS THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNDERCERTAINTY REGARDING EXTENT OF LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHWRS/TSTMS. HAVE INSERTED SOME LIGHT FOG/HAZE
INTO KRIC/KECG/KSBY TAFS AS AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER STAGNANT...BUT
DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG TO
BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THAN HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY. KECG
HAD LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...AND THREAT FOR THIS OCCURRING
THURSDAY MORNING EXISTS.

OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SCTD MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHWRS/TSTMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME STRATUS AND FOG AT SOME OF THE
TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OCEAN STRATUS LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN SHORT TERM. WNDS REMAIN AOB 10 KTS ALONG WITH SEAS
AOB 2 FT THRU THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES. XPCT ONSHORE SEA
BREEZES BOTH THIS AFTRN AND THU AFTRN WITH WNDS BCMG MORE WSW AT
NIGHT.

DATA SUGGESTS HIGH PRS TO THE N WILL BE STRONG ENUF TO PUSH A BKDR
CDFRNT S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI. THE HIGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS WKEND. THIS SCENARIO RESULTS IN A XTNDD PRD
OF NE FLOW. DATA EVEN SUGGESTS SOLID SCA CNDTNS DVLPNG N-S FRI NIGHT
AND CONTG SAT AS WNDS INCRS TO BTWN 15-25 KTS ALONG WITH BLDG SEAS
TO BTWN 4-6 FT.

IN ADDITION...THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NEARSHORE WAVES
OF 3-4 FT WHICH WILL INCRG THE RIP CURRENT THREAT FOR THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WKEND. DESPITE BEING OUT 3 DAYS...TIDAL GUID SUGGESTS TIDES
BUILDING TO BTWN 1/2 TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NRML BY SAT...BUT REMAINING BLO
MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...MPR



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021741
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
141 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUIET LATE SUMMER MRNG ACRS FA. PATCHY FG HAS DISSIPATED...AND
MNLY SKC ATTM. REMNANT UPR LVL LO PRES CONTS TO WEAKEN AS IT
TRACKS TWD FA FM OH/WV THROUGH THIS AFTN. ISOLD SHRAS IN HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NW VA ATTM. ADDITIONAL SHRAS/PSBL TSTMS BY LT THIS AFTN
INTO THE EVE IN WARM/MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS HERE.
TRIGGER IS VERY WEAK...AND BASED ON TIMING OF ANY DEVELOPING
CONVECTION ON NR TERM HI-RES MDLS...MAY BE TOO LATE IN THE DAY FOR
TOO MUCH COVERAGE EXCEPT FM I 95 ON WNW. MADE VERY LIMITED CHGS TO
POPS...AND WILL CONT CAP AT 20-30%...MNLY I 95 TO THE PIEDMONT.
HI TEMPS FM THE U80S AT THE CST TO L90S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EWD DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...RESULTING IN GENERALLY WEAK NWLY FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER
TROUGH DROPS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURS...PUSHING AN
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OFF THE ERN CANADIAN COST. A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL
EXTEND SWD OVER ERN VA. SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO DROP OVER THE
SRN LOCAL AREA THURS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SUBTLE FORCING FOR
ASCENT ALONG THE SFC TROUGH. WARM/MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE.
WEAK FLOW UNDER THE RIDGE PRODUCES LITTLE SHEAR...SO
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED. WILL RETAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS...FOCUSED ALONG THE SFC TROUGH IN THE
SE. H85 TEMPS OF +16 TO 18C (+1 STD DEV) WILL AGAIN RESULT IN TEMPS
IN THE LOW 90S. MILD THURS MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S.

LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE ACROSS SERN CANADA IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SEWD INTO
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE REGION.
WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN NWLY FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE SUBTLE
FORCING...BUT MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED WITH NEAR NORMAL PWATS AND 60-
70 PCT 1000-500MB MEAN RH. WILL MAINTAIN LOW END CHANCE POPS. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN NELY/ONSHORE FLOW
AND COOLER TEMPS COMPARED TO THURS. HIGHS FORECAST IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
INITIALLY...20-30% POP FOR A SHOWER AND MAYBE A TSTM FRI NGT THRU
SAT AFTN...AS WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS THRU THE AREA...AS HI PRES
BLDS FM ERN CANADA SWRD TO ALNG THE NEW ENGLAND CST. THEN...WILL
HAVE DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU TUE...AS THE CNTR OF HI PRES BLDS DOWN
OVR THE MID ATLC REGION AND JUST OFFSHR. HIGHS WILL BE 80 TO 85 SAT
AND SUN...GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S MON...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 80S
TUE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SAT MORNG...IN THE 60S
SUN AND MON MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 TUE MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. TSTMS IN THE
VICINITY OF KRIC SHOULD MOVE SEWD AWAY FROM THE TERMINAL BY
1830Z. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
22Z TO 01Z TIME FRAME...PER HI-RES MODELS. HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 18Z TAFS...AS THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNDERCERTAINTY REGARDING EXTENT OF LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHWRS/TSTMS. HAVE INSERTED SOME LIGHT FOG/HAZE
INTO KRIC/KECG/KSBY TAFS AS AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER STAGNANT...BUT
DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG TO
BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THAN HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY. KECG
HAD LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...AND THREAT FOR THIS OCCURRING
THURSDAY MORNING EXISTS.

OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SCTD MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHWRS/TSTMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME STRATUS AND FOG AT SOME OF THE
TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OCEAN STRATUS LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN SHORT TERM. WNDS REMAIN AOB 10 KTS ALONG WITH SEAS
AOB 2 FT THRU THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES. XPCT ONSHORE SEA
BREEZES BOTH THIS AFTRN AND THU AFTRN WITH WNDS BCMG MORE WSW AT
NIGHT.

DATA SUGGESTS HIGH PRS TO THE N WILL BE STRONG ENUF TO PUSH A BKDR
CDFRNT S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI. THE HIGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS WKEND. THIS SCENARIO RESULTS IN A XTNDD PRD
OF NE FLOW. DATA EVEN SUGGESTS SOLID SCA CNDTNS DVLPNG N-S FRI NIGHT
AND CONTG SAT AS WNDS INCRS TO BTWN 15-25 KTS ALONG WITH BLDG SEAS
TO BTWN 4-6 FT.

IN ADDITION...THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NEARSHORE WAVES
OF 3-4 FT WHICH WILL INCRG THE RIP CURRENT THREAT FOR THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WKEND. DESPITE BEING OUT 3 DAYS...TIDAL GUID SUGGESTS TIDES
BUILDING TO BTWN 1/2 TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NRML BY SAT...BUT REMAINING BLO
MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...MPR



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021741
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
141 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUIET LATE SUMMER MRNG ACRS FA. PATCHY FG HAS DISSIPATED...AND
MNLY SKC ATTM. REMNANT UPR LVL LO PRES CONTS TO WEAKEN AS IT
TRACKS TWD FA FM OH/WV THROUGH THIS AFTN. ISOLD SHRAS IN HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NW VA ATTM. ADDITIONAL SHRAS/PSBL TSTMS BY LT THIS AFTN
INTO THE EVE IN WARM/MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS HERE.
TRIGGER IS VERY WEAK...AND BASED ON TIMING OF ANY DEVELOPING
CONVECTION ON NR TERM HI-RES MDLS...MAY BE TOO LATE IN THE DAY FOR
TOO MUCH COVERAGE EXCEPT FM I 95 ON WNW. MADE VERY LIMITED CHGS TO
POPS...AND WILL CONT CAP AT 20-30%...MNLY I 95 TO THE PIEDMONT.
HI TEMPS FM THE U80S AT THE CST TO L90S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EWD DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...RESULTING IN GENERALLY WEAK NWLY FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER
TROUGH DROPS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURS...PUSHING AN
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OFF THE ERN CANADIAN COST. A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL
EXTEND SWD OVER ERN VA. SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO DROP OVER THE
SRN LOCAL AREA THURS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SUBTLE FORCING FOR
ASCENT ALONG THE SFC TROUGH. WARM/MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE.
WEAK FLOW UNDER THE RIDGE PRODUCES LITTLE SHEAR...SO
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED. WILL RETAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS...FOCUSED ALONG THE SFC TROUGH IN THE
SE. H85 TEMPS OF +16 TO 18C (+1 STD DEV) WILL AGAIN RESULT IN TEMPS
IN THE LOW 90S. MILD THURS MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S.

LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE ACROSS SERN CANADA IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SEWD INTO
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE REGION.
WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN NWLY FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE SUBTLE
FORCING...BUT MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED WITH NEAR NORMAL PWATS AND 60-
70 PCT 1000-500MB MEAN RH. WILL MAINTAIN LOW END CHANCE POPS. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN NELY/ONSHORE FLOW
AND COOLER TEMPS COMPARED TO THURS. HIGHS FORECAST IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
INITIALLY...20-30% POP FOR A SHOWER AND MAYBE A TSTM FRI NGT THRU
SAT AFTN...AS WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS THRU THE AREA...AS HI PRES
BLDS FM ERN CANADA SWRD TO ALNG THE NEW ENGLAND CST. THEN...WILL
HAVE DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU TUE...AS THE CNTR OF HI PRES BLDS DOWN
OVR THE MID ATLC REGION AND JUST OFFSHR. HIGHS WILL BE 80 TO 85 SAT
AND SUN...GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S MON...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 80S
TUE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SAT MORNG...IN THE 60S
SUN AND MON MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 TUE MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. TSTMS IN THE
VICINITY OF KRIC SHOULD MOVE SEWD AWAY FROM THE TERMINAL BY
1830Z. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
22Z TO 01Z TIME FRAME...PER HI-RES MODELS. HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 18Z TAFS...AS THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNDERCERTAINTY REGARDING EXTENT OF LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHWRS/TSTMS. HAVE INSERTED SOME LIGHT FOG/HAZE
INTO KRIC/KECG/KSBY TAFS AS AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER STAGNANT...BUT
DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG TO
BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THAN HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY. KECG
HAD LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...AND THREAT FOR THIS OCCURRING
THURSDAY MORNING EXISTS.

OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SCTD MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHWRS/TSTMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME STRATUS AND FOG AT SOME OF THE
TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OCEAN STRATUS LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN SHORT TERM. WNDS REMAIN AOB 10 KTS ALONG WITH SEAS
AOB 2 FT THRU THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES. XPCT ONSHORE SEA
BREEZES BOTH THIS AFTRN AND THU AFTRN WITH WNDS BCMG MORE WSW AT
NIGHT.

DATA SUGGESTS HIGH PRS TO THE N WILL BE STRONG ENUF TO PUSH A BKDR
CDFRNT S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI. THE HIGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS WKEND. THIS SCENARIO RESULTS IN A XTNDD PRD
OF NE FLOW. DATA EVEN SUGGESTS SOLID SCA CNDTNS DVLPNG N-S FRI NIGHT
AND CONTG SAT AS WNDS INCRS TO BTWN 15-25 KTS ALONG WITH BLDG SEAS
TO BTWN 4-6 FT.

IN ADDITION...THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NEARSHORE WAVES
OF 3-4 FT WHICH WILL INCRG THE RIP CURRENT THREAT FOR THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WKEND. DESPITE BEING OUT 3 DAYS...TIDAL GUID SUGGESTS TIDES
BUILDING TO BTWN 1/2 TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NRML BY SAT...BUT REMAINING BLO
MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...MPR




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021741
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
141 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUIET LATE SUMMER MRNG ACRS FA. PATCHY FG HAS DISSIPATED...AND
MNLY SKC ATTM. REMNANT UPR LVL LO PRES CONTS TO WEAKEN AS IT
TRACKS TWD FA FM OH/WV THROUGH THIS AFTN. ISOLD SHRAS IN HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NW VA ATTM. ADDITIONAL SHRAS/PSBL TSTMS BY LT THIS AFTN
INTO THE EVE IN WARM/MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS HERE.
TRIGGER IS VERY WEAK...AND BASED ON TIMING OF ANY DEVELOPING
CONVECTION ON NR TERM HI-RES MDLS...MAY BE TOO LATE IN THE DAY FOR
TOO MUCH COVERAGE EXCEPT FM I 95 ON WNW. MADE VERY LIMITED CHGS TO
POPS...AND WILL CONT CAP AT 20-30%...MNLY I 95 TO THE PIEDMONT.
HI TEMPS FM THE U80S AT THE CST TO L90S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EWD DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...RESULTING IN GENERALLY WEAK NWLY FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER
TROUGH DROPS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURS...PUSHING AN
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OFF THE ERN CANADIAN COST. A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL
EXTEND SWD OVER ERN VA. SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO DROP OVER THE
SRN LOCAL AREA THURS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SUBTLE FORCING FOR
ASCENT ALONG THE SFC TROUGH. WARM/MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE.
WEAK FLOW UNDER THE RIDGE PRODUCES LITTLE SHEAR...SO
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED. WILL RETAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS...FOCUSED ALONG THE SFC TROUGH IN THE
SE. H85 TEMPS OF +16 TO 18C (+1 STD DEV) WILL AGAIN RESULT IN TEMPS
IN THE LOW 90S. MILD THURS MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S.

LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE ACROSS SERN CANADA IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SEWD INTO
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE REGION.
WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN NWLY FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE SUBTLE
FORCING...BUT MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED WITH NEAR NORMAL PWATS AND 60-
70 PCT 1000-500MB MEAN RH. WILL MAINTAIN LOW END CHANCE POPS. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN NELY/ONSHORE FLOW
AND COOLER TEMPS COMPARED TO THURS. HIGHS FORECAST IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
INITIALLY...20-30% POP FOR A SHOWER AND MAYBE A TSTM FRI NGT THRU
SAT AFTN...AS WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS THRU THE AREA...AS HI PRES
BLDS FM ERN CANADA SWRD TO ALNG THE NEW ENGLAND CST. THEN...WILL
HAVE DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU TUE...AS THE CNTR OF HI PRES BLDS DOWN
OVR THE MID ATLC REGION AND JUST OFFSHR. HIGHS WILL BE 80 TO 85 SAT
AND SUN...GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S MON...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 80S
TUE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SAT MORNG...IN THE 60S
SUN AND MON MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 TUE MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. TSTMS IN THE
VICINITY OF KRIC SHOULD MOVE SEWD AWAY FROM THE TERMINAL BY
1830Z. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
22Z TO 01Z TIME FRAME...PER HI-RES MODELS. HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 18Z TAFS...AS THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNDERCERTAINTY REGARDING EXTENT OF LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHWRS/TSTMS. HAVE INSERTED SOME LIGHT FOG/HAZE
INTO KRIC/KECG/KSBY TAFS AS AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER STAGNANT...BUT
DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG TO
BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THAN HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY. KECG
HAD LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...AND THREAT FOR THIS OCCURRING
THURSDAY MORNING EXISTS.

OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SCTD MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHWRS/TSTMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME STRATUS AND FOG AT SOME OF THE
TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OCEAN STRATUS LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN SHORT TERM. WNDS REMAIN AOB 10 KTS ALONG WITH SEAS
AOB 2 FT THRU THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES. XPCT ONSHORE SEA
BREEZES BOTH THIS AFTRN AND THU AFTRN WITH WNDS BCMG MORE WSW AT
NIGHT.

DATA SUGGESTS HIGH PRS TO THE N WILL BE STRONG ENUF TO PUSH A BKDR
CDFRNT S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI. THE HIGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS WKEND. THIS SCENARIO RESULTS IN A XTNDD PRD
OF NE FLOW. DATA EVEN SUGGESTS SOLID SCA CNDTNS DVLPNG N-S FRI NIGHT
AND CONTG SAT AS WNDS INCRS TO BTWN 15-25 KTS ALONG WITH BLDG SEAS
TO BTWN 4-6 FT.

IN ADDITION...THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NEARSHORE WAVES
OF 3-4 FT WHICH WILL INCRG THE RIP CURRENT THREAT FOR THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WKEND. DESPITE BEING OUT 3 DAYS...TIDAL GUID SUGGESTS TIDES
BUILDING TO BTWN 1/2 TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NRML BY SAT...BUT REMAINING BLO
MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...MPR




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